RRH Elections August 2018 Senate Rankings

It is time for another round of Senate Rankings. Here is this month’s map:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R CA (Feinstein) Likely Feinstein

CT (Murphy)

DE (Carper)

HI (Hirono)

ME (King)

MD (Cardin)

MA (Warren)

MN-K (Klobuchar)

NM (Heinrich)

NY (Gillibrand)

RI (Whitehouse)

VT (Sanders)

VA (Kaine)

WA (Cantwell) MI (Stabenow)

MN-S (Smith)

PA (Casey)

WI (Baldwin) MT (Tester)

NJ (Menendez)

OH (Brown)

WV (Manchin) AZ (OPEN)

FL (Nelson)

IN (Donnelly)

MO (McCaskill)

NV (Heller)

ND (Heitkamp)

TN (OPEN) TX (Cruz) MS-H (Hyde-Smith)

MS-W (Wicker)

NE (Fischer)

UT (OPEN)

WY (Barrasso)

Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. The nominal “Independents” Sanders and King are counted as Dems.

RRH Elections has made two changes to our Senate Ratings since our last post in February, one in favor of Democrats:

West Virginia Lean D from Tossup

and one in favor of Republicans:

New Jersey Lean D from Likely D

We are also placing the intraparty race in California on the board at Likely Feinstein. These rankings mean that are predicting a shift in the Senate of between R+4 and D+2.

Flip over for the full narratives!

Tossups:

1. Arizona Tossup (1)

Democrats have had very high hopes of breaking through in Arizona this year. After Trump carried the state by a much narrower-than-expected margin, it seems possible that a coalition of Hispanics and upscale moderates could produce a Democratic victory here. Dems have a top-tier candidate to test that hypothesis in Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D). Sinema has locked down a light-blue district in urban Phoenix for three terms, and has pulled off a successful about-face. Formerly a Green Party member and self-described “Prada Socialist”, Sinema has successfully recast herself as a moderate in her congressional tenure with an eye toward a statewide run. She has proven a strong candidate for this race and has held consistent leads in polling. On Sinema’s side is the fact that Republicans have had a competitive and bruising primary, where only one candidate would be a strong general election contender. Thankfully for the GOP, that contender, Rep. Martha McSally (R), looks more likely than not to prevail next week. McSally is a former fighter pilot who has held down a competitive Tucson-area seat for two terms, winning re-election in 2016 by a stronger than expected margin. She has generally been an establishment conservative with slight moderate tendencies in the House. However, she faces two candidates in the primary who would be far weaker general election contenders. Ex-State Sen. and 2016 candidate Kelli Ward (R) earned the ire of moderate voters with a no-holds-barred challenge to Sen. John McCain (R) in the primary two years ago. She also has poor name recognition in the state’s most populated areas, having represented a rural seat in the Lake Havasu City area for three terms. And Ward also has a history of some bizarre behavior, most notably dabbling in conspiracy theories about chemtrails and mean-spirited remarks about McCain’s illness. An even worse general election candidate would likely be ex-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R). The octogenarian has high name recognition from his quarter-century as the self-described “America’s Toughest Sheriff”. Arpaio has successfully mastered the media, particularly conservative media, with stunts to make jail less hospitable like forcing prisoners to wear only pink underwear and setting up tents in the heat of the Phoenix summer. Arpaio also has enough controversies to fill a Wikipedia page, from allegations of racial profiling to violations of the constitutional rights of pretrial detainees to favoritism to targeting of political rivals for arrest to improper and botched rape investigations. If McSally wins the primary, the general will be highly competitive; though Sinema likely still has an advantage based on recent polling, that may evaporate as McSally coalesces the GOP base. But if Ward or especially Arpaio were to pull the upset next week, this would likely become a near-automatic Dem flip. Thus, we are placing this race as the most likely race to flip, though still in the Tossup category.

2. North Dakota Tossup (2)

Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp (D) was one of the biggest surprise winners of the 2012 cycle, narrowly holding a seat in a deep-red state that most Democrats had written off. The blood-red nature of North Dakota means she is facing a very tough fight for re-election. Republicans secured their top recruit for this race in Rep. Kevin Cramer (R), who represents the entire state and is generally regarded as a strong campaigner. Polling of this race is essentially non-existent, but there is a sense that Heitkamp’s personal popularity and affable nature may not be enough to beat back Cramer’s huge advantage in the lean of the state. Thus, this race generally looks like the most likely GOP pickup opportunity, though still well within the Tossup category.

3. Florida Tossup (6)

Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is seeking a fourth term. Nelson has been relatively secure since winning his first term in 2000 despite representing a purple state as a backbench liberal. He has been helped by a trio of factors: good Democratic years to run in, a large state in which challengers had trouble gaining name recognition, and subpar GOP nominees who were out of their depth in a marquee Senate race. While the first factor is still very much in play this year, the following two are not, thanks to perhaps the GOP’s best nationwide recruitment coup. Gov. Rick Scott (R) has proven a very strong challenger to Nelson. In spite of winning twice by narrow margins, Scott has become highly popular in his second term for his competent management of the state, and has proven an even stronger campaigner. Scott has fundraised very well, even without his ample self-funding ability, and has run a top-notch campaign, reaching out to Dem-friendly groups like Hispanics with success rarely seen by Republicans. Nelson’s campaign has also been regarded as mediocre, and the incumbent seems to be sleepwalking through the race. However, the lean of the year is a major mark in Nelson’s favor, especially in a purple state with a large Dem base. Polls have shown the race close, though slightly more have had Scott ahead. About all we can firmly say at this point is that the race is set to be one of the nation’s most competitive.

4. Nevada Tossup (3)

Incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) is the only Republican representing a state Hillary carried up for re-election this year. Thus, he is considered by far the most endangered GOP incumbent as he seeks a second full term. Heller has attempted to tack to the center in anticipation of a good Dem environment, and has proven a strong candidate in his prior runs. However, the lean of the year and the purple state means he is certain to face a tough fight. Democrats’ recruit for the race is first-term Rep. Jacky Rosen (D), who was considered a lower-tier House recruit in 2016 as she was an unknown synagogue manager. But with help from a subpar opponent, she was able to carry a Trump seat in her House bid, and that profile led her to be recruited to this race by the state’s Dem establishment. The general election between Rosen and Heller seems set to be one of the year’s most fiercely contested, given strong candidates on both sides and the purple lean of the state. Polling has shown the two consistently neck and neck, and the race clearly belongs in the Tossup category.

5. Indiana Tossup (4)

Incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) is, with Heitkamp, the other of two first-term Dems in a deep-red state. Like much of the Midwest, Indiana swung strongly right in 2016 and Democrats saw their highly-touted gubernatorial and Senate recruits go down in flames to unexceptional Republicans. Republicans have high hopes of taking on Donnelly, something of a fluke winner in 2012 after his opponent self-immolated. His rival this time is State Rep. Mike Braun (R), a formerly-little-known state legislator from a rural district who notched a come-from-behind win in the primary. Braun has had a major advantage in his self-funding ability, which allowed him to outspend his primary rivals and seize the outsider and antiestablishment mantles. He has however had some of his own liabilities in his business record that Dems are attempting to exploit, though that may be a pot-kettle situation, as Donnelly has been subjected to some attacks on his investments in businesses that outsourced jobs. Polling in this race is non-existent, but CW is the general election is certain to be highly competitive. While Indiana is trending right strongly, the lean of the year could be enough to give Donnelly another win. Overall this seat still belongs well within the Tossup category.

6. Missouri Tossup (5)

Incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) has led a charmed political life. After being narrowly swept in on the 2006 wave, McCaskill was considered DOA in 2012 as her state trended right, especially as she has had her own minor scandals surrounding her husband’s private plane. However, as you most likely remember, McCaskill was saved in 2012 after opponent found ways to shut that whole campaign down with a single stupid remark. This year, she has been regarded as a top-tier target for Republicans once again. AG Josh Hawley (R) is the establishment choice to take on McCaskill. Hawley is a former law professor who has been known as an activist on religious freedom-issues. He was aggressively recruited into the race by national Republicans, which was a somewhat curious decision for two reasons. First, the move came at the cost of pushing aside Rep. Ann Wagner (R), who had been preparing for the race for some time, aside. Second, Hawley has opened himself up to charges of ladder-climbing and ungrounded ambition as he was just elected AG two years ago. Hawley has fundraised well for this race and pushed aside all major primary opponents. However, his campaign has gotten off to a somewhat mediocre start, with some minor gaffes and grumbling about his greenness as a candidate, culminating in an unimpressive win against Some Dude level primary opponents. The general election is likely to be one of the nation’s most competitive, and polling has shown the race very close. McCaskill is known as a famously no-holds-barred campaigner, and Missouri’s red lean may be counterbalanced by the Dem-friendly tilt of the year. Overall, the race still looks like a pure Tossup.

Leans Toward Incumbent Party:

7. Montana Lean D (8)

Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) is seeking a third term. Like McCaskill, Tester has had a bit of a charmed political life this cycle, most notably when Trump tapped then-Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) as Interior Secretary and took him out of an expected challenge here. Then AG Tim Fox (R), the GOP’s plan “B” for the race, declined to run ahead of a likely 2020 gubernatorial bid. Tester has been a backbench establishment liberal in the Senate, but maintains a persona of blue-collar populist liberalism that has historically played very well in Montana in spite of the conservative lean of the state. However, Tester has never won overwhelming victories, squeaking through both times with help from vote-splitting to right-of-center spoiler candidates. He once again faces a competitive race. The GOP nominee is State “Auditor” (Insurance Commissioner) Matt Rosendale (R). A former legislator who lost a 2014 primary for the House seat, Rosendale was elected statewide in 2016. He has proven a decent plan “C” for Republicans in this race, fundraising reasonably well and taking in the most from donors. Rosendale also has strong outside support from ideological conservatives, including the Club for Growth, Rand Paul, and Cruz. Rosendale also has an unusual liability, an embarrassingly strong Baltimore (Bawlmer) accent, betraying his Maryland roots, which may be a problem among parochial voters. Tester’s blue-collar liberalism with swagger has proven a good fit for the elastic state, and he is known as a tough campaigner. However, he may have erred with his attack this summer on VA nominee Ronny Jackson, which drew the open ire of Trump. In a state where Trump is fairly popular, the President going to bat for the GOP nominee could be a major asset. But for now, Tester’s track record and the lean of the year suggest that the incumbent is a slight but noticeable favorite.

8. Tennessee Lean R (10)

This is one of just three open seats this year, as two-term incumbent Bob Corker (R) is retiring. Seven-term Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) is the GOP nominee and the favorite for the seat. Blackburn is a mainstream grassroots-friendly conservative from the Nashville suburbs, who has generally been a front-bencher within the GOP caucus. Her strong rapport with the grassroots was enough to foreclose any serious primary opposition. However, Blackburn is somewhat to the right of the state’s relatively moderate GOP establishment, which has left her open to what could be a surprisingly serious general election challenge. 2000s-era ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is attempting to make a comeback in this race. Bredesen was a very well-regarded Governor, but he has not been on a ballot in 12 years and a state race is very different from a federal one in a red state. While polls have shown the race competitive or even with a slight Bredesen lead, Bredesen has generally been stuck in the low 40s in overall vote shares, and with his high name recognition and the inelastic lean of the state, there is reason to think that he may be near his ceiling. CW is that Blackburn is still a moderate favorite unless the environment deteriorates significantly for the GOP.

9. West Virginia Lean D (7)

Incumbent Joe Manchin (D) is seeking a second full term in this incredibly Trump-friendly, but historically-Democratic state. Manchin is a former Governor and moderate who fits WV’s historical mold reasonably well and retains strong approval ratings from his successful gubernatorial tenure. However, as Senate races have become increasingly nationalized, he is swimming against very tough terrain in the now deep-red state. Manchin’s rival this year is AG Patrick Morrisey (R). Morrisey was something of an accidental winner when he was first elected in 2012, winning off the unpopularity of the prior liberal incumbent. He has a bit of a geography problem: he previously ran for office in New Jersey and received his WV law license days before filing for AG. He also lives in Harper’s Ferry, at the eastern tip of the state in a region culturally unlike the majority of West Virginia (his home is literally 500 feet from the DC exurbs of Loudon County, VA). Morrisey is furthermore an ideological conservative, which is something of a tough sell in a state far more in tune with the Trumpulist impulse than the Reaganite conservative one. Manchin has generally led in polls, and it seems more likely than not that the lean of the year and West Virginia’s idiosyncratic politics will hand him another term. However, this is a race where the beloved Trump putting his thumb on the scale hard could be a major factor down the line.

10. New Jersey Lean D (11)

Incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is seeking a third full term in spite of getting off federal corruption charges through a hung jury. In case you don’t recall, Menendez was indicted for accepting a huge number of expensive gifts and trips from a sleazy Florida eye doctor, Solomon Melgen. Menendez then helped Melgen with his various governmental challenges, such as aiding Melgen’s medicare fraud. Thanks to McDonnell neutering most corruption laws, the prosecutorial charges were unable to stick, with Menendez’s defense being that it is, like, totally normal for politicians to accept massive gifts from their sleazy buddies as a token of friendship. Whether the voters swallow that is another question entirely. Though he avoided serious primary opposition, Menendez was held to an embarrassingly low share in the primary by a non-campaigning Some Dude, suggesting that the possibility of even committed Dems defecting is real. Republicans have a strong recruit for the seat in pharma executive Bob Hugin (R). On paper at least, Hugin has the makings of an absolute rockstar candidate: The first in his family to go to college, he served nearly a decade in the Marines before going into pharma, eventually becoming a well-regarded CEO of Celgene, a major cancer drug company. Hugin also has major self-funding ability, a key asset in the extremely expensive state. This race will likely test the limits of partisanship. New Jersey is an inelastic state and this is a Dem year, but the candidate quality disparity is just overwhelming. Menendez has felt the need to go negative against Hugin, a sign that the race may be competitive, so we are pushing the race a nudge over the line into the Lean D category. But due to the lean of the state and year, Menendez is still amazingly (or disgustingly) favored to win re-election.

11. Ohio Lean D (9)

Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is seeking a third term. Ohio has been trending right recently, but Brown has a strong populist brand that could make him tough to defeat. He has also been aided by running in a purple state in cycles that have strongly favored his party. The race was thrown for a loop in January when the previous front-runner for the GOP nomination, State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R), abruptly dropped out due to family issues. The void Mandel left was quickly filled by fourth-term Rep. Jim Renacci (R), who dropped a long-shot gubernatorial bid to enter the race. A wealthy former car dealership owner, Renacci has been able to largely self-fund his bid. He also has solid campaign experience from winning tough races in what was at the time a swingy district in 2010 and 2012, both times defeating Democratic incumbents. Renacci has been a mainstream conservative in the House, but has been playing up his populist tendencies for this race. Brown will not have the luxury of the 2012 Obama turnout apparatus on his side, but Ohio is still a purple state and the lean of the year will be enough to counterbalance that. Thus, Brown has been up in polls by a moderate margin and there has been grumbling on the right about Renacci’s campaign being mediocre. Thus, this race drops a bit this month to the doorstep of the Likely D category.

Likely to Stay with Incumbent Party:

12. Texas Likely R (15)

Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is seeking a second term. Cruz, who is perhaps the state’s foremost antiestablishment conservative, is generally popular with the primary electorate but still only somewhat grudgingly accepted by establishment Republicans. His status as a prominent anti-Trump conservative in 2016 has also not endeared him to the Trumpulist side of grassroots. Cruz is facing Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in the first serious fight Texas Dems have put up for a Senate seat since 2002. O’Rourke is a backbench liberal from El Paso who has been unknown across most of the state, but has gotten significant fundraising and buzz from national liberals. In the general, his odds are not to be written off as totally zero, and polling has shown the race generally close, though with a consistent narrow Cruz lead. However, O’Rourke is fighting to both gain name recognition and persuade a lot of voters. Cruz thus remains fairly heavily favored but there is a slight chance for an upset in a mammoth Dem wave. Therefore, we are pushing this race up to the more competitive side of the Likely R category.

13. Wisconsin Likely D (12)

Incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a second term. Baldwin was a staunch bold progressive from Madison in her six terms in the House, but ran a strong campaign statewide in 2012, narrowly taking the seat in a mild upset. She remains one of the Senate’s more liberal Democrats, though a backbencher and not a particularly vocal leftist. Though Baldwin is well to the left of her closely-divided purple state, she has had the good fortune to have her seat come up in a good cycle. That is especially meaningful for her, as Wisconsin has a large #resistance population around Madison that looks likely to be in overdrive this year. As a result, most “A” list Republicans, notably Rep. Sean Duffy (R), declined to enter the race, leaving a “B” list nominee in State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R). Vukmir has represented a conservative district in Milwaukee’s western suburbs for eight years, defeating a Dem incumbent in 2010 and being protected in redistricting. She is running as an ideological yet establishment-friendly conservative in the Scott Walker mold, particularly on fiscal issues. She will face a tough election against Baldwin’s incumbency in a closely divided state with a huge energized #resistance population. However, some polls have shown the race close, and Wisconsin’s conservative base is large enough that it seems possible for the race to be a sleeper.

14. Minnesota (Smith) Likely D (14)

Incumbent Tina Smith (D) was appointed to this seat by her mentor, Gov. Mark Dayton (D). Smith had been Dayton’s LG for his second term, but more importantly his most trusted aide and confidante. Indeed, as Dayton has been facing health issues in recent years, Smith was in many ways operating as de facto Governor. Ideologically, she is probably best described as an establishment liberal with some mild bold progressive tendencies. Smith initially wanted to take the seat as only a placeholder, but Democrats fearful of having an open seat convinced her to run for a full term. State Sen. Karin Housley (R) is the GOP nominee. Housley is the wife of former pro hockey player and current Buffalo Sabres head coach Phil Housley. She has represented a light-red district in the eastern Twin Cities exurbs for six years, and is running as an establishment conservative with some slight moderate tendencies; Housley has had good but not great fundraising for this race. In the general, Smith is likely a substantial favorite, but she is unproven enough and Housley credible enough that an unforced error or improvement in the national environment could make the race competitive.

15. Pennsylvania Likely D (13)

Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. (D) has been an empty suit in his two terms, with a moderate image largely inherited from his socially conservative late father that belies his current status as a party-line backbencher. But though Pennsylvania swung right last cycle and is firmly a purple state, Casey’s support from the Dem base and modicum of crossover appeal is enough to make him reasonably popular and favored for a third term. Fourth-term Rep. Lou Barletta (R) surprisingly gave up his Safe House seat to take on Casey. Barletta, a somewhat antiestablishment-leaning conservative, was notably one of the first mainstream GOP pols to pitch an immigration-restrictionist line, dating back to his time in the 2000s as mayor of the small NEPA mill town of Hazleton. On paper, he has some proven campaign skill, having won a Dem-leaning seat in his first House run in 2010. However, his efforts for this race have been mediocre at best, with poor fundraising by the standards of a large-state Senate race. Casey has generally led by large margins in polls, and given the lean of the year, it would likely be a shock if he did not notch an easy win. However, Pennsylvania is purple enough and Barletta is credible enough on paper that we are keeping this race on the board in the lower reaches of the Likely category.

16. Michigan Likely D (16)

Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) is seeking a fourth term. Stabenow has been a backbench establishment liberal in the Senate, which has made her a good fit for her historically-blue (though increasingly purple-trending) state. While there was some enthusiasm for taking on Stabenow seriously after Trump carried the state, no big-name Republicans stepped up in this race. Instead, the GOP has a credible novice nominee in logistics company executive John James (R). James has a very compelling biography as a 37-year old African-American West Point graduate and combat helicopter pilot in Iraq, who now runs a business in the city of Detroit. He has received praise from conservative groups and is regarded as well-spoken. Furthermore, James has fundraised quite well for this relatively long-shot race, taking in just shy of $4M with no major self-funding. However, this looks like at best a long-shot pickup opportunity for the GOP. Stabenow’s incumbency, non-controversial personality, and the lean of the year in the purple state seem likely to keep her headed to an uneventful re-election. However, James is credible and this seat may be on the very edge of the playing field if Stabenow makes an unexpected error or the environment improves for Republicans.

Safe for Incumbent Party:

17. New Mexico Safe D (21)

Incumbent Martin Heinrich (D) is seeking a second term, and we continue to rate him as the strong favorite to get it. Heinrich has been a staunch liberal in the Senate, but New Mexico is just blue enough for its Democratic Senators to be Safe under normal circumstances. But this race was thrown for a loop in the last week by… the Libertarian Party. Libertarians had their lone serious candidate for a major race contesting this seat, as R-turned-L State Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (L) was in the race. However, Dunn dropped out and was replaced by an even stronger candidate, ex-Republican Gov. and 2012/16 Libertarian Presidential nominee Gary Johnson (L). Johnson remains popular in the state, taking nearly double-digits statewide in 2016. And polls have shown him potentially making the race against Heinrich competitive, though still trailing. The big wild-card here is Republicans. The GOP has their own nominee here, construction company executive Mick Rich (R), who has vehemently denied that he would consider dropping out to back Johnson. A split in the center and center-right vote likely means the state’s large and energized Dem base can carry Heinrich to victory. Thus, we are still keeping this race off the edge of the playing field by a hair for now. But Johnson is enough of a wild card that it could potentially become a competitive contest.

18. Mississippi (Hyde-Smith) Safe R (18)

Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), a former elected state Ag Commissioner, was appointed to this seat earlier this year by Gov. Phil Bryant (R). That means she will have to face a special election in November in a Louisiana Rules Top Two format. Hyde-Smith is an establishment conservative and faces rivals on both her left and right. On her right is State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), a vocal antiestablishment conservative who was originally challenging fellow Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in the primary before this seat opened up. On her left is ex-Clinton US Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy (D), who was also a congressman from the poor, majority-black Delta region in the 80s. Espy has a significant liability in that he was forced out of his cabinet post over major corruption issues. While the criminal issues did not stick, the ethical questions are likely to be a major liability for Espy if the race becomes competitive. So far that seems unlikely though – polls have shown Hyde-Smith leading Espy in the jungle primary with McDaniel in a distant third. Thanks to the inelastic conservative nature of Mississippi, a runoff between Hyde-Smith and Espy should likely end with an easy Hyde-Smith victory. Thus, the seat remains a bit off the edge of the playing field barring an intensified Dem wave or unforced GOP error.

19. Delaware Safe D (24)

Incumbent Tom Carper (D) is a general non-controversial establishment liberal with some mild moderate tendencies; that position has proven a good fit in Delaware, a state with a deep love for milquetoast moderate liberals. Thus, Carper is a strong favorite for a fourth term. However, some left-wing forces have targeted Carper, with veteran and nonprofit exec Kerri-Evelyn Harris (D) receiving some left-wing support. The remote but non-zero chance that Carper could lose in the primary leads us to bump this race to the higher reaches of the Safe category, but this race is still far more likely than not to be an easy victory for the incumbent.

20. Maine Safe I/D (19)

Befitting Maine’s tradition of multi-way general elections, there are three candidates in this Ranked-Choice Voting race. Incumbent Angus King (I) won his first term in 2012 easily against Democratic and Republican opponents. King was an upscale centrist as Governor in the 90s, but has been mostly a Dem foot soldier in all but name (and an occasional moderate vote on gun rights) in the Senate. That position and his personal history and popularity is still enough to keep him popular in a light-blue state though. King’s major challenger this year is State Sen. Eric Brakey (R). Brakey is a libertarian conservative who was a Ron Paul operative in 2012, and has since held down a purple State Senate seat for two terms. Brakey has gotten buzz in the race for his youth, as he will only turn 30 this summer. However, his fundraising has been poor and he doesn’t seem to have much of a chance against King’s personal brand and popularity. There is a real Dem in the race, teacher Zak Ringelstein (D), who is running on a far-left platform and has a small share of institutional Dem support. However, Ringelstein’s fundraising has been poor, and with RCV he will likely be even less relevant.

21. Virginia Safe D (17)

Incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D) is seeking a second term after falling short in his VP bid last cycle. Kaine’s national exposure was far from illustrious, as he came off as at best boring and at worst an angry soccer-dad. But in his home state, he is better known as a successful moderate-liberal governor and a backbench mainstream liberal in the Senate. And as Virginia looks to be increasingly moving from purple to blue, that position looks likely to make Kaine a very strong favorite for another term. Kaine’s rival, Prince William CE and 2017 gubernatorial candidate Corey Stewart (R), would initially seem like a good candidate on paper. Stewart has been the top official in the large, blue-trending suburban DC county for a decade. However, Stewart has major weaknesses. He is a red-meat antiestablishment conservative who has managed to hold on in Prince William through low-turnout off-year elections, and is thus a tough sell statewide. Stewart’s level of red meat is strong even by Trump’s standards, as he was booted as state Trump campaign chair for anti-RNC antics. Additionally, his 2017 bid was a strange near-single-issue campaign on defending confederate monuments (made even stranger by the fact that Stewart is a self-hating Yankee from Minnesota). Thus, Kaine looks like a prohibitive favorite for a second term barring something unexpected.

22. Maryland Safe D (23)

Incumbent Ben Cardin (D) is seeking a third term and in very strong position to get it, though this race may still be more interesting than meets the eye. Cardin has been a major force in state politics for over 50 years in the legislature, House, and Senate; he is a mainstream liberal with some moderate tendencies and a hawkish streak on foreign policy. That position and his backbench liberal record in Congress has historically been enough to insulate Cardin from major challenges. Cardin’s challenge likely comes not from the GOP nominee, ex-Baltimore County GOP chair and professor Tony Campbell (R), who has barely fundraised and can likely count on little more than the state’s meager straight-ticket GOP base. However, there is still a slight possibility of the race becoming competitive thanks to a third candidate, investor Neal Simon (I). Simon has self-funded enough to run a serious campaign and is runing as an upscale centrist; Cardin was held to 55% six years ago by a similar Indie candidate. However, Simon will still face a tough time against Cardin’s incumbency and the inelastic deep-blue lean of the state, and thus we leave the race well inside the Safe D category.

23. Mississippi (Wicker) Safe R (20)

It is about this point in the rankings that we get to the point where the races are true walkovers. Incumbent Roger Wicker (R) is a popular backbench mainstream conservative in a red state, and thus a strong favorite for a second full term. Wicker is facing State House Minority Leader David Baria (D), who has won three terms in a conservative district on the Gulf Coast. He was considered a reasonably strong recruit, particularly when State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) was in the race. However, after McDaniel left the race to run for the other seat, Baria’s fundraising has dried up. He will face a dramatically long odds against the non-controversial Wicker in the inelastic red state barring something seriously unexpected.

24. Washington Safe D (28)

Incumbent Maria Cantwell (D) is seeking a fourth term and the prohibitive favorite to get it. Cantwell is a backbench, somewhat business-friendly mainstream liberal who, unlike her somewhat more polarizing senior colleague Patty Murrray (D), has never faced any difficulty winning re-election. Cantwell faces ex-WAGOP chair Susan Hutchinson (R), a former longtime local TV news anchor who ran a respectable race for King CE in 2009. However, she faces a daunting task in this race given the lean of the state and Cantwell’s brand, and there is little reason to think the November election will be anything but a walkover for Cantwell.

25. Connecticut Safe D (22)

Incumbent Chris Murphy (D) is seeking a second term. Murphy is known as a vocal left-wing presence in the Senate and among the more skilled practitioners of what might best be described as all-snark-all-the-time politics. However, his blue state and incumbency look likely to give him an easy ride to re-election this year. Republicans are running poorly-funded perennial candidate Matthew Corey (R), who was the sacrificial lamb nominee for CT-1 in both 2014 and 2016; he will not have much chance against Murphy in November barring something incredibly unexpected.

26. Nebraska Safe R (27)

Incumbent Deb Fischer (R) is an inoffensive backbench conservative in a very red state, and thus a strong favorite for a second term. Democrats have a somewhat credible recruit in Lincoln councilwoman Jane Raybould (D), who has raised enough to run a serious campaign. But Nebraska is a very red state and Fischer will be a strong favorite for a second term barring something incredibly unexpected.

27. Rhode Island Safe D (25)

Incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse (D) is a vocal liberal in a deep-blue state. Thus, he is unlikely to face a serious fight for a third term. Republicans have a credible sacrificial lamb in ex-State Supreme Court justice Robert Flanders (R). Flanders has raised enough to run a credible campaign, but will likely pose little threat to give Whitehouse a competitive race barring something seriously unexpected.

28. Wyoming Safe R (29)

Incumbent John Barrasso (R) is seeking a second full term. Barrasso has been a largely non-controversial establishment conservative in his decade in DC. An orthopedic surgeon by trade, he is also known as one of the congressional GOP’s main healthcare experts. Barrasso has generally been well-liked in his deep-red state and should be a strong favorite this week in the primary over moderate businessman Dave Dodson (R). Dems have a surprisingly credible candidate in 2006/08 House nominee and school board member Gary Trauner (D). You may remember that Trauner shocked the political world in 2006 when he came within 1% of defeating then-Rep. Barbara Cubin (R), who had severe foot-in-mouth disease. Trauner also notched a respectable 10-point loss for the open seat two years later. For this race, Trauner has fundraised enough to run a credible campaign; however, the deep-red lean of the state and federal race make this an ultra-long-shot race barring a major unforced GOP error.

29. Massachusetts Safe D (26)

In spite of her “high cheekbones”, incumbent Elizabeth Warren (D) is obviously a national Dem star and a good fit for her deep-blue state. However, she still faces three Republicans vying to play General Custer against her this year: businessman John Kingston (R), Romney aide Beth Lindstrom (R), and State Rep. Geoff Diehl (R). None of them will present Warren much difficulty in attaining a second term en route to a possible 2020 run.

30. Minnesota (Klobuchar) Safe D (30)

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is well-liked in her state; as a backbench establishment liberal with a “Minnesota Nice” demeanor, she is perfectly in-step with what her state tends to gravitate toward in pols. Thus, Klobuchar is the prohibitive favorite for a third term over token opposition from State Rep. Jim Newberger (R), a little-known backbench legislator from a rural St. Cloud area district.

31. Utah Safe R (31)

After winning the primary, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is the prohibitive favorite to skate to this open seat in the general. Romney is beloved in Utah for his trailblazing as the first Mormon major presidential nominee, his competent leadership of the 2002 Winter Olympics, and his straight-arrow reputation. Thus, his carpetbagging to this seat was easily forgiven. He will easily win the general over Salt Lake County commissioner Jenny Wilson (D), who is well to the left of the state and doesn’t have Romney’s connections or name recognition.

32. New York Safe D (34)

Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is facing only token opposition from GOP donor Chele Chiavacci-Farley (R). Chiavacci-Farley has raised enough to run a credible campaign but has zero name recognition in a deep-blue state and is unlikely to present Gillibrand with much trouble en route to a 2020 presidential run.

33. Hawaii Safe D (33)

Incumbent Mazie Hirono (D) faces no serious opposition for a second term; the GOP is running Some Dude Ron Curtis (R), who has not raised enough to run a serious campaign.

34. Vermont Safe I/D (32)

Incumbent Bernie Sanders (D) faces no serious opposition for a third term; the GOP is running ultra-perennial candidate Brooke Paige (R), who is also “campaigning” for five other statewide offices.

35. California Safe D/Likely Feinstein (35)

The safest seat of all is no surprise, as this is the only one that can’t flip parties at all. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is facing an intraparty general election challenge as she seeks a fifth full term, from State Senate Pres. Kevin DeLeon (D). Feinstein is an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, particularly on foreign policy where she is relatively hawkish. This has historically been a good fit for California, but as the state Democratic party has stampeded left, Feinstein has not shifted with it. As such, much of the Dem grassroots has gotten behind DeLeon’s challenge; he is running on a down-the-line hard-left platform. However, Feinstein has universal name recognition (in marked contrast to DeLeon) and is likely to be the beneficiary of any Republicans who vote in the race. While DeLeon has enough left-wing support to have a theoretical path to victory by selling the octogenarian Feinstein as past her prime and too moderate, Feinstein’s large margin in the primary suggests that she should prevail relatively easily.