adicjoseph

So the first round went mostly chalk. Don't count on the rest of the 2017 NCAA tournament doing the same.

There's almost no way we're on a path to 2008, when all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. This season just hasn't shaken out like that one, when all four No. 1s were stacked to the gills and had lost nine games all season entering that Final Four.

So which No. 1 seeds won't make it? Well, a lot of that has to do with the draw. And a lot of that has to do with the No. 1 seeds themselves. There's a good case for each of this year's top four teams falling off early, but here is our ranking of who has the most to worry about.

1. Kansas Jayhawks, Midwest Region

The Jayhawks must be thrilled about how they opened the NCAA tournament. After eight days off thanks to an early exit in the Big 12 Conference tournament, they blew past UC Davis 100-62 in a game that wasn't even that close. Everyone played well, including star freshman Josh Jackson and slumping guard Devonte' Graham, and they shot 56.3% from the field and 44.0% on 3-pointers.

But yes, this team still has flaws. Frontcourt inconsistency has dogged Kansas all year, with Landen Lucas still being the only big man from whom Bill Self knows what he'll get on a nightly basis. Frank Mason, the national player of the year front-runner, can get a little shot-happy when things get rough. Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk don't always take the best shots. Throw in Self's history of earlier-than-expected exits (to go along with a championship and a runner-up season), and you've got an interesting mix.

Then there's the road ahead.

First they have to get through Tom Izzo in the second game of an NCAA tournament weekend. That might sound overly specific, but Izzo is a mastermind on short turnaround: He's 21-4 in those second games of tournament weekends, and two of those losses came in championship games.

Miles Bridges and Tom Izzo. (Mike Carter, USA TODAY Sports)

And Michigan State plays a super-physical game, which could be a problem for Kansas. That's why this game may come down to its two star freshmen: Miles Bridges and Josh Jackson are capable of doing everything on a basketball court, but which one will be the one to actually do it? Bridges is the hot hand, while Jackson has only played once in about two weeks.

That same size issue would be enormous against Purdue. The Boilermakers' two best players are centers Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas, whom they play together sometimes and of whom they almost never play without one. But that might be the better scenario for Kansas because Iowa State has four senior guards - Monte Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Deonte Burton and Matt Thomas - who simply aren't going to make the kinds of mistakes that a younger team would in a big game. Plus Iowa State already beat Kansas; they're 1-1 this season.

Get through all that, and there's No. 2 Louisville with Rick Pitino, one of the few coaches who can match or even top Izzo in tournament résumé, or No. 3 Oregon, which is laden with veterans and mad about having its season end at the Elite Eight last year.

None of this is to say the Jayhawks are the best team in the Midwest Region. They absolutely deserved that No. 1 seed, and Mason may be the best player in the country. But the road is very difficult. Izzo, Pitino and an Iowa State team loaded with efficient seniors? Perry Ellis ain't walking through that door.

2. Villanova Wildcats, East Regional

Adam Hunger, USA TODAY Sports

There's a fair argument that the Wildcats have an even more difficult path. No. 8 Wisconsin was absurdly under- seeded. No. 4 Florida is probably the most underrated team in the country. No. 5 Virginia has a boatload of experience and a desire to finally get to that darn Final Four after several years of simply not quite getting there. And of course, Duke is the most talented team in the country and should be considered the championship favorite.

But the Wildcats have three things on their side: 1) They already play the slow tempo that Wisconsin and Virginia will want them to run, and they do it better; 2) They're the defending champions and have a ton of NCAA experience as a result; and 3) They've got more and better senior leadership than anyone else in the region. There's no such thing as upset-proof, but the Wildcats should feel pretty good that they won't be the ones blowing it.

3. Gonzaga Bulldogs, West Regional

Joe Camporeale, USA TODAY Sports

Everybody put Arizona in the Final Four. And there's really no doubt as to why the analytics community's favorite team this season is getting so little love: Gonzaga simply won't get respect for as long as it stays in the West Coast Conference.

The bothersome part is that the Bulldogs already beat Pac-12 champion Arizona once this year, on a neutral court. They toppled Big 12 champ Iowa State and SEC power Florida on neutral courts, too. And for as much as their experience and size get touted, the Bulldogs even have an overlooked NBA talent this year in freshman Zach Collins, their own, less used Lauri Markkanen.

Maybe West Virginia's physicality gets to the Bulldogs, but this team reads as truly elite in almost every regard.

4. North Carolina Tar Heels, South Regional

Jeremy Brevard, USA TODAY Sports

The Tar Heels got handed an Elite Eight berth. Yes, No. 4 Butler's pulled off many an upset in its recent history, but this team was seeded a line or two higher than many expected. No. 12 Middle Tennessee was everyone's favorite first-round upset pick, but Cinderella's glass slipper rarely stays in tact into the second weekend.

That pretty much leaves the Elite Eight itself. Kentucky, UCLA, Wichita State and Cincinnati are all good teams with good résumés. They're also all flawed. Kentucky relies on freshmen on a level that even John Caliper rarely likes to, and those freshmen aren't as clear-cut star level players as Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns or John Wall were. UCLA's defense is a real issue, even when you adjust for the Bruins' tempo. Wichita State's path was simply laid out to be impossible, for unfair reasons.

And the reason UNC was such a popular pick to win it all is because the Tar Heels have so much experience. Their top four scorers are three juniors and a senior. Their stud freshman is a sixth man. They have size, they have guard play and they have a star in red-hot Justin Jackson.

If you can't quite count on the Tar Heels to make the Final Four - and in the interest of transparency, I actually picked Kentucky - then you've got to feel as good about them as any of the other No. 1s.