The decision regarding which university to go to and which course to choose is the biggest that most young people will have faced in their lives, and it’s made even more significant for those in England, Wales and Northern Ireland by the eye-watering debt most will accumulate. They need the support to help choose the course that is best for them, and avoid dropping out, which would leave them with the cost of higher education without the benefit. Unfortunately, the majority are not getting this support, as students in these nations remain tied to an archaic process based around predicted grades governing university entry.

The present process, whereby the majority of students receive the offer of a university place based primarily on their expected grades rather than actual ones, is a product of a process designed for a time when less than 5% of the population went to university. Unfortunately, it has become seen by too many inside the higher-education sector as the only way to admit students in an era when nearly 50% of young people, rather than 5%, are going. The consequence is that students are making decisions earlier than they need to, and those whose grades don’t match the offer, are forced into the peculiarly homegrown phenomenon of clearing, where a decision that will shape your future career (and, given what we know about marriage patterns, your personal life as well), is made in a frenzied search at the end of August.

This process places undue pressure on first-generation students and those from groups under-represented in higher education, such as care leavers. Those who have the potential to get the grades needed to get into the more selective institutions with the strongest graduate outcomes are more likely to be predicted lower grades than they can achieve. The rest are left to navigate an increasingly complex system without the crucial advice that their peers with parents who navigated it can rely on.

The faults in the present arrangements, however, are never more clearly highlighted than with the current concerns over unconditional offers. The numbers of students receiving offers of places has increased sevenfold since 2013. In the competition for students, universities are increasingly rejecting the idea that actual grades matter. The result, though, is another complexity in the system, and given the opaque way in which offer decisions are made, it is a complexity that looks increasingly unfair, as some students can coast through their A-levels with a place in the bag while their friends can’t.

University admissions do not have to be this way. We are the only major country in the world where students receive course offers on the basis of predicted grades. International comparisons have to be done carefully. In countries such as the US, for example, admission is based more on standard aptitude tests, which can be marked more quickly. Our content-heavy A-level examination means we have to allow sufficient time for exams to be marked accurately and securely. But this does not mean it’s not possible to have a system that better supports students to make the right choices for them.

In a report released this week, we at the National Education Opportunities Network argue that it is time to develop a new university admissions system that enables students to make better decisions, and remove the anachronism of predicted grades. This system would recognise that decision-making regarding university entry begins far earlier than age 17 or 18 for young people, and it would provide information, advice and guidance from age 15 onwards. It would look abroad to learn from innovative practice in the Netherlands and pilot a study choice check – which is an online questionnaire all students would take before they apply that would measure what their expectations of the course were against the reality.

The aim is to avoid the mismatches that often lead to students under-performing or dropping out. The new system would likely eliminate the need for clearing, as students would be applying on actual grades and so would be able to apply for more courses. For first-year students the academic year will start a little later, giving them time to find accommodation if need be, and also meaning they can be well prepared for their entry into higher education, and that their needs can be focused on specifically, rather than lost in the noise of the start of a university term.

The work needed to change university admissions can’t and shouldn’t be underestimated. But neither is it an excuse not to look seriously at what is not working and change it.

• Dr Graeme Atherton is the director of the National Education Opportunities Network (NEON)