All that in mind, I wondered if the continued slow growth of Bitcoin usage had made Andreessen less bullish on its future. I put that question to him on Twitter, and this conversation followed:

Hi @pmarca, is the continued slow growth of Bitcoin transactions making you less bullish on the currency? http://t.co/33SZzL0NGY — Wagner James Au (@slhamlet) August 13, 2014

@slhamlet Nope! Lots of development happening. Right on track. — Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) August 13, 2014

@pmarca OK, thanks. If daily Bitcoin transactions are still below peak by end of 2014, will you still be bullish? If so, why? — Wagner James Au (@slhamlet) August 13, 2014

@slhamlet Amara's Law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." — Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) August 13, 2014

(Roy Amara was a researcher, scientist and past president of the Institute for the Future, by the way.) I pressed on:

@pmarca Amara's Law may apply in this case, but I'm left wondering if Bitcoin advocates' bullishness is falsifiable in any way. Is it? — Wagner James Au (@slhamlet) August 13, 2014

@slhamlet Let's check back in 10 years. — Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) August 13, 2014

@pmarca Setting the bar to 10 years seems pretty high, but OK, will check back with you on this in 2024. :) — Wagner James Au (@slhamlet) August 13, 2014

Thing is, while Andreessen is doing really well and can ride on his Bitcoin investments to see what happens to the currency in ten years, most others who've staked a lot of their lives and fortunes on its fate probably can not.

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