Last updated at 08:40 01 May 2008

Global warming will be "put on hold" over the next decade because of natural climate variations, scientists claim.

A study of sea temperature changes predicts a lull as traditional climate cycles cancel out the heating effect of greenhouse gases from pollution.

The findings suggest the official models used to predict short-term global warming patterns are too crude.

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But scientists say rising carbon dioxide levels caused by man will send temperatures up again after the natural trends peak and will continue to rise in following decades.

UN experts have said global temperatures are expected to increase by 0.3c over the next decade.

But the study by Dr Noel Keenlyside, of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Germany, predicts the temperature of the North Atlantic around Europe and North America may cool slightly.

Temperatures in the North Atlantic are influenced by a giant 'conveyor belt' of warm water from the south called the meridional overturning circulation.

This weakens and grows stronger every 80 years or so. When the circulation is strong, temperatures are warmer.

A new model of this pattern suggests it will weaken over the next ten years leading to cooler temperatures.

Writing in the journal Nature today, the scientists said: "Our results suggest global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade."

Dr Richard Wood of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: 'Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longerterm warming from increasing levels of greenhouse gases.

"That emphasises the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades."

The Met Office believes 2008 will be slightly cooler than last year. But the last ten years remain the warmest decade in recent human history.