Pete Buttigieg surges ahead of Joe Biden in Iowa polling

Chris Sikich | IndyStar

Show Caption Hide Caption Pete Buttigieg and his major policy proposals Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg has released major policy proposals addressing foreign policy, minority voters, domestic terrorism and other issues.

Following his breakout debate performance, presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg has surged into striking distance of a win in Iowa, putting up his best showing in recent polls in the state with the first nominating contest.

In a New York Times/Siena College poll released Friday morning, the mayor of South Bend is polling at 18%, behind Elizabeth Warren at 22% and Bernie Sanders at 19%. He edged out Joe Biden, who entered the race at the top of the polls in Iowa, but slipped to fourth place at 17%.

The poll has a margin of error of 4.7%, meaning the race remains tight, with the top three in a statistical tie. The remaining candidates are polling at 4% or less.

In some ways it's no surprise. Pundits think Buttigieg is positioned to contend in mostly white Iowa and New Hampshire, but caution his continuing struggle in South Carolina, a state with a larger African American population, might be more noteworthy.

"He's bound to do well in Iowa," said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. "He's Midwestern and Iowa is 90 percent white. I'm still very skeptical that he can go on to win the nomination (given his lack of support among African Americans). I just don’t see how he does it."

Buttigieg has had a sometimes bumpy relationship with African Americans in South Bend, most recently thrust into the spotlight when a white police officer shot a black man wielding a knife this summer.

It's not his only obstacle. Acceptance of marriage equality and LGBTQ rights among African Americans and Latinos is growing, but isn’t as high as among other groups, a potential problem for the first openly gay Democratic candidate for president.

Still, pundits say a win in Iowa would give him more time to win over those voters. And if Biden continues to stumble, many might be looking for a more moderate candidate than Warren and Sanders, a point Buttigieg reinforced again and again at the October debate.

"If he can be successful in Iowa and in New Hampshire that gives him more time and opportunity to really reach out to voters and try to get them on his side," said Laura Merrifield Wilson, assistant professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis.

In fact, the national takeaway from the recent polls has been the continuing collapse of Biden, pundits say, which is leaving the door open for other candidates like Buttigieg.

"Biden is now, I think you can make an argument that he's out in Iowa and New Hampshire," Sabato said. "That ought to be a concern for him, though he has a chance to recover in South Carolina (where he remains popular with African American voters)."

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The poll had more good news for Buttigieg, who has been positioning himself as a moderate alternative to the former vice president. The South Bend mayor is the second choice of 31% of caucus goers, behind only Sanders at 34%.

Buttigieg fared somewhat better with older voters than younger voters, according to the poll.

There was some bad news for him, too. Among the top four candidates, voters were the least confident in his chances of defeating President Donald Trump, at 70%. Warren was at 81%, Biden at 80% and Sanders at 76%.

The poll of 439 Iowa Democratic caucus goers was conducted Oct. 25-30.

Buttigieg has been a leader in collecting campaign money, and he appears to be putting it to good use, said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.

"It's being put to work in Iowa and in New Hampshire and in South Carolina and we'll see if the same sort of thing can happen (elsewhere)," Downs said.

The survey comes just a week after Buttigieg polled at 20% in the latest Iowa State University/Civiqs poll, behind only Warren at 28%.

Sanders was at 18% and Biden at 12% in that poll of 598 likely Democratic caucus attendees surveyed between October 18-22. The margin of error was 5%.

Buttigieg moved up from fourth place in the same poll in September.

There was trouble for the mayor in this poll, too, foreshadowing his issues in more diverse states.

Among non white voters in Iowa, Buttigieg was at fifth place at 9%, behind Biden, Warrem, Sanders and Kamala Harris. The mayor also ranked poorly as a second choice, ranking behind Warren, Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard.

Call IndyStar reporter Chris Sikich at 317-444-6036. Follow him on Twitter: @ChrisSikich.