Meet the new boss, Nick Saban as always.

The Golden Nugget released the point spreads for 100 games this season, and Johnny Detroit was kind enough to pass along that data for purposes of this post. With only data for 100 games, how am I able to conclude that Vegas views Alabama as the best team (or, at least, one of the top 2 teams) in college football? Consider:

Alabama is a 6-point road favorite at Ole Miss this year. That is the only game this year (of the seven we have lines for) where Mississippi is an underdog, and the Rebels are an 8-point home favorite against Auburn and a 4.5-point home favorite against Georgia. The Rebels finished 10th in the polls last year and are projected to be the 10th-best team this year, so this line says all you need to know about Alabama.

Against Auburn, Alabama is a 15-point home favorite (that’s a touchdown better than Ole Miss is against Auburn). The Tigers were not great last year, but are still projected at #20 this year.

In Arkansas, the Crimson Tide are 8.5-point favorites. In the other 3 home games for Arkansas, the Razorbacks are 7.5-point dogs to LSU (the #3 team by this methodology), 1-point underdogs to Mississippi, and a 2.5-point favorite against Florida.

Alabama is a 15-point favorite at home against Mississippi State and a 14-point home favorite against Texas A&M. Both of those teams are projected to be, by Vegas, top 30 teams this year.

In Tennessee, Alabama is a 1-point dog, but the Vols are projected as the 6th best team this year! Tennessee is a pick’em in Georgia, a 5-point favorite in College Station, an 11-point favorite at home against Florida, and a 13-point favorite in a neutral site game against Virginia Tech.

LSU is projected to be the 3rd best team in college football. The Tigers are an 11-point favorite at home against MSU, a 9.5-point home favorite against Ole Miss, 7.5-point road favorites in Florida and Arkansas, a touchdown favorite in Auburn, a 6-point favorite in College Station, and – only – a 2.5-point home favorite against Alabama.

You may be wondering, how do we know how good Alabama’s opponents are? Well, we can imply the ratings of each team in college football based on these points spreads. I explained how to do this last year, but here is the refresher:

The system is pretty simple: I took the point spread for each game and turned it into a margin of victory, after assigning 3 points to the road team in each game. Do this for every game, iterate the results hundreds of times ala the Simple Rating System, and you end up with a set of power ratings.

Two quick notes about the rankings.

1) These are not intended to be surprise. The methodology may be somewhat complicated, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.

2) These are not “my” ratings. These are simply the implied ratings based on the Vegas (or, more specifically, the Golden Nugget) points spreads; nothing more, nothing less.

Below are the ratings for 51 college football teams. In the table below, I’ve included the number of games for which we have point spreads for each team on the far left. The “MOV” column shows the home field-adjusted average margin of victory for that team, the “SOS” column shows the average rating of each team’s opponents (for only the number of games for which we have lines), and the “SRS” column shows the school’s implied SRS rating. As you can see, Alabama is projected to be the strongest team in college football, but Oklahoma is just a hair behind:

RK Team G MOV SOS SRS 1 Alabama 7 8.3 1.6 9.9 2 Oklahoma 5 9.1 0.5 9.6 3 LSU 7 7.7 0.6 8.3 4 Clemson 4 11.3 -3.7 7.6 5 Florida St. 6 8.6 -1.1 7.4 6 Tennessee 5 6.0 0.9 6.9 7 Ohio St. 5 4.3 1.6 5.9 8 Michigan 4 5.8 -0.5 5.2 9 Oklahoma St. 3 2.5 1.2 3.7 10 Ole Miss 7 1.7 0.6 2.4 11 Stanford 7 3.9 -1.5 2.3 12 Georgia 5 2.4 -0.2 2.2 13 Washington 3 0.7 1.5 2.2 14 Oregon 8 5.5 -4.0 1.5 15 Louisville 2 -2.8 4.2 1.4 16 Houston 3 4.3 -3.4 0.9 17 USC 9 3.3 -2.5 0.8 18 Notre Dame 7 4.8 -4.4 0.4 19 UCLA 5 3.1 -3.1 0.0 20 Auburn 7 -3.5 2.5 -1.0 21 N. Carolina 1 -8.5 7.4 -1.1 22 Florida 5 -5.9 4.6 -1.3 23 TCU 4 -1.8 0.5 -1.3 24 Texas A&M 5 -6.7 5.3 -1.4 25 Nebraska 3 -3.2 1.5 -1.6 26 Arkansas 7 -3.9 2.1 -1.8 27 Boise St. 1 3.5 -5.5 -2.0 28 Mississippi St. 6 -2.4 0.1 -2.3 29 Texas Tech 1 1.0 -3.3 -2.3 30 Michigan St. 4 -4.5 2.1 -2.4 31 West Virginia 4 -4.3 1.6 -2.6 32 Iowa 2 -4.5 1.8 -2.7 33 Wisconsin 3 -5.8 2.9 -2.9 34 Texas 4 -5.8 2.4 -3.3 35 Miami (Fl) 3 -4.8 0.9 -3.9 36 Cincinnati 1 -5.0 0.9 -4.1 37 Pittsburgh 1 -12.5 7.6 -4.9 38 Virginia Tech 3 -6.2 1.1 -5.1 39 BYU 5 -2.9 -2.6 -5.5 40 Arizona 3 -4.3 -1.3 -5.6 41 Utah 5 -3.9 -2.0 -5.9 42 Arizona St. 5 -5.2 -1.9 -7.1 43 Memphis 1 -8.5 0.9 -7.6 44 Georgia Tech 2 -12.8 4.9 -7.9 45 South Carolina 2 -12.0 2.6 -9.4 46 N. Carolina St. 2 -13.5 3.9 -9.6 47 California 3 -11.5 1.5 -10.0 48 Vanderbilt 1 -14.0 2.4 -11.6 49 Virginia 1 -14.5 1.5 -13.0 50 Navy 2 -0.5 -12.6 -13.1 51 Army 1 -12.5 -13.1 -25.6

In the table below, I’ve listed each game. It’s fully searchable and sortable; for example, you can type “Oklahoma” in the search box to see all Sooners games this year (although you will also get all OSU games, too). Here’s how to read the Oklahoma-Texas line. Oklahoma plays Texas in a neutral site game in Dallas. Oklahoma is a 12-point favorite, which gives the Sooners a 12-point HFA-adjusted margin of victory. Since Texas has a rating of -3.3, that means OU has an SRS rating of +9.4 for this game. Do this for every game for each team, and you get the ratings in the table above.

RK ROAD H/R N SITE HOME LINE HFA-MOV SOS SRS 1 ALABAMA R OLE MISS -6 9 2.4 11.4 2 ALABAMA H AUBURN -15 12 -1.0 11.0 3 OKLAHOMA H OKLAHOMA ST. -9.5 6.5 3.7 10.2 4 OKLAHOMA R WEST VIRGINIA -9.5 12.5 -2.6 9.9 5 ALABAMA R ARKANSAS -8.5 11.5 -1.8 9.7 6 OKLAHOMA R TCU -8 11 -1.3 9.7 7 ALABAMA H MISSISSIPPI ST. -15 12 -2.3 9.7 8 ALABAMA H TEXAS A&M -14 11 -1.4 9.6 9 OKLAHOMA H OHIO ST. -6.5 3.5 5.9 9.4 10 LSU H ALABAMA -2.5 -0.5 9.9 9.4 11 LSU R FLORIDA -7.5 10.5 -1.3 9.2 12 LSU R AUBURN -7 10 -1.0 9.0 13 LSU H OLE MISS -9.5 6.5 2.4 8.9 14 ALABAMA R TENNESSEE +1 2 6.9 8.9 15 ALABAMA R LSU +2.5 0.5 8.3 8.8 16 LSU R ARKANSAS -7.5 10.5 -1.8 8.7 17 OKLAHOMA N DALLAS TEXAS -12 12 -3.3 8.7 18 FLORIDA ST. R N. CAROLINA ST. -15 18 -9.6 8.4 19 CLEMSON H SOUTH CAROLINA -20.5 17.5 -9.4 8.1 20 FLORIDA ST. H CLEMSON -3.5 0.5 7.6 8.1 21 TENNESSEE N BRISTOL TN VIRGINIA TECH -13 13 -5.1 7.9 22 TENNESSEE H ALABAMA -1 -2 9.9 7.9 23 CLEMSON R GEORGIA TECH -12.5 15.5 -7.9 7.6 24 LSU R TEXAS A&M -6 9 -1.4 7.6 25 CLEMSON H PITTSBURGH -15.5 12.5 -4.9 7.6 26 FLORIDA ST. H N. CAROLINA -11.5 8.5 -1.1 7.4 27 FLORIDA ST. R LOUISVILLE -3 6 1.4 7.4 28 FLORIDA ST. H FLORIDA -11.5 8.5 -1.3 7.2 29 CLEMSON R FLORIDA ST. +3.5 -0.5 7.4 6.9 30 TENNESSEE H FLORIDA -11 8 -1.3 6.7 31 TENNESSEE R TEXAS A&M -5 8 -1.4 6.6 32 OHIO ST. H NEBRASKA -11 8 -1.6 6.4 33 FLORIDA ST. R MIAMI (FL) -7 10 -3.9 6.1 34 OHIO ST. R WISCONSIN -6 9 -2.9 6.1 35 OHIO ST. R OKLAHOMA +6.5 -3.5 9.6 6.1 36 MICHIGAN R OHIO ST. +3 0 5.9 5.9 37 LSU H MISSISSIPPI ST. -11 8 -2.3 5.7 38 OHIO ST. R MICHIGAN ST. -5 8 -2.4 5.6 39 MICHIGAN H WISCONSIN -11.5 8.5 -2.9 5.6 40 OHIO ST. H MICHIGAN -3 0 5.2 5.2 41 TENNESSEE R GEORGIA Pk 3 2.2 5.2 42 MICHIGAN R IOWA -4.5 7.5 -2.7 4.8 43 MICHIGAN R MICHIGAN ST. -4 7 -2.4 4.6 44 OKLAHOMA ST. H WEST VIRGINIA -10 7 -2.6 4.4 45 OLE MISS H AUBURN -8 5 -1.0 4.0 46 GEORGIA H TENNESSEE Pk -3 6.9 3.9 47 STANFORD H USC -6 3 0.8 3.8 48 OLE MISS H GEORGIA -4.5 1.5 2.2 3.7 49 OKLAHOMA ST. H TEXAS -10 7 -3.3 3.7 50 OKLAHOMA ST. R OKLAHOMA +9.5 -6.5 9.6 3.1 51 STANFORD R UCLA Pk 3 0.0 3.0 52 STANFORD R CALIFORNIA -10 13 -10.0 3.0 53 STANFORD R ARIZONA -5.5 8.5 -5.6 2.9 54 OREGON H STANFORD -3.5 0.5 2.3 2.8 55 GEORGIA H AUBURN -6.5 3.5 -1.0 2.5 56 WASHINGTON R OREGON +2 1 1.5 2.5 57 OLE MISS R VANDERBILT -11 14 -11.6 2.4 58 USC H NOTRE DAME -5 2 0.4 2.4 59 WASHINGTON H STANFORD -3 0 2.3 2.3 60 NOTRE DAME H STANFORD -3 0 2.3 2.3 61 OREGON R USC +1.5 1.5 0.8 2.3 62 OLE MISS R ARKANSAS -1 4 -1.8 2.2 63 STANFORD R WASHINGTON +3 0 2.2 2.2 64 GEORGIA H GEORGIA TECH -13 10 -7.9 2.1 65 OREGON H ARIZONA ST. -12 9 -7.1 1.9 66 OLE MISS R LSU +9.5 -6.5 8.3 1.8 67 WASHINGTON H USC -4 1 0.8 1.8 68 GEORGIA N JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA -3 3 -1.3 1.7 69 OLE MISS R TEXAS A&M Pk 3 -1.4 1.6 70 USC H CALIFORNIA -14.5 11.5 -10.0 1.5 71 OREGON H VIRGINIA -17.5 14.5 -13.0 1.5 72 LOUISVILLE H FLORIDA ST. +3 -6 7.4 1.4 73 LOUISVILLE R HOUSTON +2.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 74 OREGON R NEBRASKA Pk 3 -1.6 1.4 75 USC R WASHINGTON +4 -1 2.2 1.2 76 OREGON H WASHINGTON -2 -1 2.2 1.2 77 AUBURN H TEXAS A&M -5.5 2.5 -1.4 1.1 78 USC R UTAH -4 7 -5.9 1.1 79 UCLA H UTAH -10 7 -5.9 1.1 80 STANFORD R OREGON +3.5 -0.5 1.5 1.0 81 HOUSTON H LOUISVILLE -2.5 -0.5 1.4 0.9 82 HOUSTON R MEMPHIS -5.5 8.5 -7.6 0.9 83 HOUSTON R CINCINNATI -2 5 -4.1 0.9 84 USC H ARIZONA ST. -11 8 -7.1 0.9 85 GEORGIA R OLE MISS +4.5 -1.5 2.4 0.9 86 OLE MISS H ALABAMA +6 -9 9.9 0.9 87 AUBURN R MISSISSIPPI ST. Pk 3 -2.3 0.7 88 NOTRE DAME H MICHIGAN ST. -6 3 -2.4 0.6 89 NOTRE DAME H MIAMI (FL) -7.5 4.5 -3.9 0.6 90 OREGON R UTAH -3.5 6.5 -5.9 0.6 91 USC R UCLA +2.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 92 NOTRE DAME H VIRGINIA TECH -8.5 5.5 -5.1 0.4 93 NOTRE DAME N JACKSONVILLE NAVY -13.5 13.5 -13.1 0.4 94 STANFORD R NOTRE DAME +3 0 0.4 0.4 95 USC R ARIZONA -3 6 -5.6 0.4 96 MISSISSIPPI ST. R LSU +11 -8 8.3 0.3 97 UCLA H USC -2.5 -0.5 0.8 0.3 98 OREGON R CALIFORNIA -7 10 -10.0 0.0 99 USC H OREGON -1.5 -1.5 1.5 0.0 100 UCLA R ARIZONA ST. -4 7 -7.1 -0.1 101 TCU R TEXAS Pk 3 -3.3 -0.3 102 UCLA R BYU -2 5 -5.5 -0.5 103 NOTRE DAME R N. CAROLINA ST. -6 9 -9.6 -0.6 104 TEXAS A&M H OLE MISS Pk -3 2.4 -0.6 105 TEXAS A&M H LSU +6 -9 8.3 -0.7 106 USC R STANFORD +6 -3 2.3 -0.7 107 UCLA H STANFORD Pk -3 2.3 -0.7 108 TCU H ARKANSAS -4 1 -1.8 -0.8 109 FLORIDA N JACKSONVILLE GEORGIA +3 -3 2.2 -0.8 110 FLORIDA R FLORIDA ST. +11.5 -8.5 7.4 -1.1 111 N. CAROLINA R FLORIDA ST. +11.5 -8.5 7.4 -1.1 112 TEXAS A&M R ALABAMA +14 -11 9.9 -1.1 113 FLORIDA R TENNESSEE +11 -8 6.9 -1.1 114 TEXAS A&M H TENNESSEE +5 -8 6.9 -1.1 115 NOTRE DAME R USC +5 -2 0.8 -1.2 116 NEBRASKA R IOWA +1.5 1.5 -2.7 -1.2 117 FLORIDA R ARKANSAS +2.5 0.5 -1.8 -1.3 118 AUBURN H ARKANSAS -3.5 0.5 -1.8 -1.3 119 AUBURN R GEORGIA +6.5 -3.5 2.2 -1.3 120 WEST VIRGINIA H TCU -3 0 -1.3 -1.3 121 ARKANSAS R MISSISSIPPI ST. +2 1 -2.3 -1.3 122 TCU H OKLAHOMA +8 -11 9.6 -1.4 123 ARKANSAS R AUBURN +3.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 124 NEBRASKA H OREGON Pk -3 1.5 -1.5 125 ARKANSAS H OLE MISS +1 -4 2.4 -1.6 126 ARKANSAS H ALABAMA +8.5 -11.5 9.9 -1.6 127 AUBURN H LSU +7 -10 8.3 -1.7 128 MICHIGAN ST. H MICHIGAN +4 -7 5.2 -1.8 129 ARKANSAS H FLORIDA -2.5 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 130 BOISE ST. H BYU -6.5 3.5 -5.5 -2.0 131 NEBRASKA R OHIO ST. +11 -8 5.9 -2.1 132 MICHIGAN ST. H OHIO ST. +5 -8 5.9 -2.1 133 MISSISSIPPI ST. R ALABAMA +15 -12 9.9 -2.1 134 AUBURN R ALABAMA +15 -12 9.9 -2.1 135 ARKANSAS H LSU +7.5 -10.5 8.3 -2.2 136 FLORIDA H LSU +7.5 -10.5 8.3 -2.2 137 IOWA H MICHIGAN +4.5 -7.5 5.2 -2.3 138 ARKANSAS R TCU +4 -1 -1.3 -2.3 139 TEXAS TECH H TEXAS -4 1 -3.3 -2.3 140 WISCONSIN R MICHIGAN ST. +3 0 -2.4 -2.4 141 TEXAS N DALLAS OKLAHOMA +12 -12 9.6 -2.4 142 MISSISSIPPI ST. R BYU Pk 3 -5.5 -2.5 143 MIAMI (FL) H FLORIDA ST. +7 -10 7.4 -2.6 144 TCU R WEST VIRGINIA +3 0 -2.6 -2.6 145 AUBURN R OLE MISS +8 -5 2.4 -2.6 146 MICHIGAN ST. R NOTRE DAME +6 -3 0.4 -2.6 147 MISSISSIPPI ST. H ARKANSAS -2 -1 -1.8 -2.8 148 MISSISSIPPI ST. H SOUTH CAROLINA -9.5 6.5 -9.4 -2.9 149 MICHIGAN ST. H WISCONSIN -3 0 -2.9 -2.9 150 WEST VIRGINIA H OKLAHOMA +9.5 -12.5 9.6 -2.9 151 WEST VIRGINIA N LANDOVER BYU -2.5 2.5 -5.5 -3.0 152 IOWA H NEBRASKA -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 -3.1 153 WISCONSIN H OHIO ST. +6 -9 5.9 -3.1 154 WISCONSIN R MICHIGAN +11.5 -8.5 5.2 -3.3 155 WEST VIRGINIA R OKLAHOMA ST. +10 -7 3.7 -3.3 156 TEXAS R OKLAHOMA ST. +10 -7 3.7 -3.3 157 TEXAS R TEXAS TECH +4 -1 -2.3 -3.3 158 TEXAS A&M R AUBURN +5.5 -2.5 -1.0 -3.5 159 VIRGINIA TECH H MIAMI (FL) -3 0 -3.9 -3.9 160 MISSISSIPPI ST. H AUBURN Pk -3 -1.0 -4.0 161 CINCINNATI H HOUSTON +2 -5 0.9 -4.1 162 MIAMI (FL) R NOTRE DAME +7.5 -4.5 0.4 -4.1 163 TEXAS H TCU Pk -3 -1.3 -4.3 164 PITTSBURGH R CLEMSON +15.5 -12.5 7.6 -4.9 165 UTAH H BYU -3.5 0.5 -5.5 -5.0 166 BYU H UCLA +2 -5 0.0 -5.0 167 UTAH H OREGON +3.5 -6.5 1.5 -5.0 168 MIAMI (FL) R VIRGINIA TECH +3 0 -5.1 -5.1 169 BYU N LANDOVER WEST VIRGINIA +2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -5.1 170 VIRGINIA TECH R NOTRE DAME +8.5 -5.5 0.4 -5.1 171 ARIZONA H USC +3 -6 0.8 -5.2 172 BYU H MISSISSIPPI ST. Pk -3 -2.3 -5.3 173 BYU R BOISE ST. +6.5 -3.5 -2.0 -5.5 174 ARIZONA H ARIZONA ST. -4.5 1.5 -7.1 -5.6 175 VIRGINIA TECH N BRISTOL TN TENNESSEE +13 -13 6.9 -6.1 176 ARIZONA H STANFORD +5.5 -8.5 2.3 -6.2 177 UTAH H USC +4 -7 0.8 -6.2 178 BYU R UTAH +3.5 -0.5 -5.9 -6.4 179 ARIZONA ST. H UTAH -2.5 -0.5 -5.9 -6.4 180 UTAH R ARIZONA ST. +2.5 0.5 -7.1 -6.6 181 UTAH R UCLA +10 -7 0.0 -7.0 182 ARIZONA ST. H UCLA +4 -7 0.0 -7.0 183 ARIZONA ST. R ARIZONA +4.5 -1.5 -5.6 -7.1 184 ARIZONA ST. R USC +11 -8 0.8 -7.2 185 ARIZONA ST. R OREGON +12 -9 1.5 -7.5 186 MEMPHIS H HOUSTON +5.5 -8.5 0.9 -7.6 187 GEORGIA TECH R GEORGIA +13 -10 2.2 -7.8 188 GEORGIA TECH H CLEMSON +12.5 -15.5 7.6 -7.9 189 CALIFORNIA H OREGON +7 -10 1.5 -8.5 190 N. CAROLINA ST. H NOTRE DAME +6 -9 0.4 -8.6 191 SOUTH CAROLINA R MISSISSIPPI ST. +9.5 -6.5 -2.3 -8.8 192 SOUTH CAROLINA R CLEMSON +20.5 -17.5 7.6 -9.9 193 N. CAROLINA ST. H FLORIDA ST. +15 -18 7.4 -10.6 194 CALIFORNIA H STANFORD +10 -13 2.3 -10.7 195 CALIFORNIA R USC +14.5 -11.5 0.8 -10.7 196 VANDERBILT H OLE MISS +11 -14 2.4 -11.6 197 VIRGINIA R OREGON +17.5 -14.5 1.5 -13.0 198 NAVY N BALTIMORE ARMY -12.5 12.5 -25.6 -13.1 199 NAVY N JACKSONVILLE NOTRE DAME +13.5 -13.5 0.4 -13.1 200 ARMY N BALTIMORE NAVY +12.5 -12.5 -13.1 -25.6

The top five teams based on implied vegas ratings are, in order, Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, Florida State. In Phil Steele’s top 10 rankings, he has Alabama at 1, Oklahoma at 3, at 5, Clemson at 2, and FSU at 4; in other words, that’s the same top five, just in a different order. ESPN’s FPI’s top six teams are FSU-LSU-Oklahoma-Clemson-Tennessee-Alabama. That, of course, is the same top six as these implied ratings. Bill Connelly at SB Nation? His top five was, as of February, also Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Florida State.

That makes me feel very confident in these ratings. And the beauty is, they go 51 teams deep. One of the more interesting teams to analyze is Houston, and they provide a good example of how these ratings “work” — and, in my opinion, why. Bill C. has Houston down at 53; ESPN has them only at 47, and Steele has them at 20. The Implied SRS has them at 16. Why is that?

Houston plays just three games with point spreads, and two of them are useless:

Houston is a 5.5-point road favorite in Memphis. Unfortunately for our purposes, Memphis does not have another game in this sample.

Houston is a 2-point road dog in Cincinnati. Unfortunately for our purposes, Cincinnati doesn’t have another game in this sample, either.

At home against Louisville, Houston is a 2.5-point favorite. That might not sound good, but the SRS has Louisville at 16. Why is that? Well, Louisville has only one other game, but it’s at home against FSU and Louisville is just a 3-point dog. So, by the transitive property, Houston is only 6.5 points weaker than Florida State. Given that the Seminoles are a top-5 team, this is strong evidence that Houston is pretty good!

So yeah, Houston’s entire rating is driven by being just a half point worse than Louisville. But I think that’s okay: after all, the fact that Louisville is only 6 points worse than Florida State is all we need to know that Louisville is pretty darn good. Also of note: Louisville is in the top 20 in both the FPI and Bill’s ratings. And while “small sample size” is a reasonable criticism in lots of instances, I don’t think it’s applicable here, given that these are projections and not results.

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.