Laloo Prasad Yadav Laloo Prasad Yadav

The more he is pushed to the brink, and the more he is snubbed, the less seems to be the effect on Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav's visions of triumph. So what if polls were postponed for a fifth time last fortnight? So what if President's Rule was imminent? Brushing aside such questions, he thundered: "Despite all efforts by the Brahminical forces, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) T. N. Seshan, the Congress(I) and the BJP, to sabotage our chances, the Janata Dal is coming back with a two-thirds majority."

Laloo wasn' t the only one smelling victory. With polling drawing to a close, the sighs of relief - it was the longest poll process in the state's history - were giving way to claims of victory. The Congress(I), the BJP and the Samata Party each proclaimed it would be the single largest party. And each contradicted itself.



While trends available showed that the Congress(I) had improved its position, rumblings within the party sent conflicting signals. The chief of the state Congress unit, Sarfaraz Ahmed, claimed that the party would form a government on its own. Not exactly, said veteran party leader Jagannath Mishra.

According to Mishra, the Congress(I) would align with the Samata Party which, in turn, rejected Mishra's proposal, calling it a ploy to help Laloo. As for the BJP, though it appeared confident of winning more than the 39 seats it had won last time, party insiders said that their most optimistic estimate did not put the figure above 50.



Onions wasting in a Patna godown Onions wasting in a Patna godown

All this may have been music to Laloo's ears, but he also had to contend with alarm bells still ringing in Seshan's office. When Seshan staggered the last phase, from March 25 to March 28, Laloo went on the offensive: "Seshan wants to humiliate and insult the people. He is throwing Bihar into the vortex of violence. Our people will come out on the roads." That may have been a typical Laloo outburst, but the CEC's repeated postponements seemed to have had their intended effect.

Meanwhile, 14 people were killed during the first round of polling, the second was incident-free; only one person was killed in violence during the third round and eight in the penultimate phase.



In another twist to the poll process, Seshan called a four-day meeting - scheduled for March 30, April 1, 3 and 4 - of all candidates, presiding officers and state government officials. Stated objective: to look into complaints of malpractices in the 88 constituencies which went to the polls on March 11.



Some Dal leaders felt the meeting would trigger off yet another chain of delays. They argued that after reviewing the complaints regarding the first round, Seshan would hold similar meetings for the other four phases - and accordingly put off the announcement of results.



"I have not made any mistake. I cannot help it if so many people are angry with my action."

T. N. Seshan

Chief Election Commissioner

Complicating the scenario has been the persistent shadow of President's Rule. Whatever the outcome of Seshan's meetings, one thing is certain: the new assembly will be constituted only after March 31, the deadline by which the state budget for 1995-96 or a vote-on-account has to be passed. This means that the state will be put under President's Rule so that Parliament can pass the budget or the vote-on-account.



The inevitability of President's Rule has sparked off angry reactions from Dal leaders, including former prime minister V P. Singh, who attributes it to a conspiracy hatched by Seshan, the BJP and the Congress(I). But for the people of the state, it's just another procedural formality signifying little.

For a state with the second highest population in the country and the lowest per capita income, a new government isn't expected to bring much cheer. Especially to those worn down by the hardships caused by the protracted poll process in the state.



"The entire system has been de-railed," says the president of the Bihar Chamber of Commerce (BCC), P. K. Agrawal. "The staggering of the poll process has caught the state in a vicious cycle." One that has left the already crippled state's economy in a royal mess.



For the cash-strapped state Government, the delay has been costly. First, it has had to cough up roughly Rs 100 crore for the deployment of about 750 companies of central security personnel.

Also, the period from January to March is crucial for tax-collection since it forms the basis of all budgetary estimates for the next financial year. That has been largely ignored. According to estimates prepared by the BCC, the Government is losing a staggering Rs 3 crore every day.



"Seshan wants to humiliate the people, He is throwing Bihar into the vortex of violence."

Laloo Prasad Yadav

Chief Minister, Bihar

Heavy vehicles, including buses and trucks meant to ferry essential commodities, were impounded in February - in accordance with the initial election schedule - and pressed into poll duty.

That threw transportation out of gear, causing many factories to close down as the supply of raw materials had been disrupted. Also, withdrawal of heavy vehicles, including buses, has severely restricted the movement of people.

And with vehicles grounded, petrol stations are struggling to stay afloat. For example, the Indian Oil Corporation depot at Sipara, on the outskirts of Patna, which serves on an average 150 tankers a day, is now feeding barely 25.



Responding to a flurry of help calls from traders and industrialists, the BCC sent at least four petitions to the administration asking for the release of the vehicles in phases. There has been no response so far. Estimated loss: Rs 100 crore.



T. N. Seshan T. N. Seshan

If industrialists have been hit hard, the poor have been hit harder. Edible oil, usually brought in from Gujarat and Maharashtra, is scarce. Before the polls were announced, the Patna wholesale market, which supplies the capital and neighbouring areas, received 20 truck-loads of potatoes daily.

Today, barely one reaches the market. Its daily supply of five trucks of onions from Nasik has been suspended. Even those supplies that have trickled in, mainly by rail, lie in god owns as vehicles for distribution are not available. Supply of fruits, including bananas from Hajipur, has been disrupted. Result: prices of essential commodities are soaring.



With the situation so bad in the capital, in the interiors it is worse. Says the general secretary of the Bihar State Consumers' Association, Panna Lal Gupta, who is also an Independent candidate for the Patna Central assembly seat: "Most of the people were with Seshan in his attempt to discipline politicians. But should he punish the people and pat his own back?"



Delay and Deprivation

The unprecedented delay in the poll process in Bihar has derailed normal life:



The state has reportedly not been able to complete its tax collection. Estimated loss: Rs 3 crore per day. With vehicles impounded, essential commodities are in short supply, prices are soaring. Factories have closed down because of shortage of raw materials. Estimated loss: Rs 100 crore. Board examinations for Class X and XII have been postponed; academic schedules have been severely disrupted. Those in need of medical aid in remote areas have been badly affected owing to shortage of medicine and restricted movement of doctors.

But Seshan is unmoved. "I have not made any mistake (by postponing the polls)," he said last fortnight. "I can't help it if many people are angry with my action." But it's more frustration and helplessness that have gripped Bihar than anger.

Every time Seshan deferred the polls, the Government postponed the school-leaving and intermediate examinations, sending academic schedules haywire.

In a state where the education system has always been in dire straits, the current crisis couldn't have come at a worse time.

Any further extension of examination dates is expected to jeopardise the future of those who wish to join colleges outside the state, or are scheduled to appear for national entrance examinations to medical or engineering colleges.

More poignant is the condition of those who need medical help. Several doctors have complained that shortage of vehicles has restricted their movement.

Especially in remote areas, supply of essential drugs and basic medical supplies has been hit hard. There have been reports of several deaths owing to the shortage.



Trade and industry sources say that it will take three months for the new government to put life back on the rails. For the people of the state, accustomed to weathering one crisis after another, three months isn't a long time. But it's one more ominous sign of the state's future, with or without Laloo.

