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The College Football Playoff selection committee has finally spoken, letting us know that Alabama, Clemson, LSU and Notre Dame would battle for the national championship if the season ended today.

However, there are still four weeks left in the regular season—plus the all-important conference championship games to follow—during which these initial rankings will change considerably.

Thus far in the CFP era, only 50 percent of teams that debuted in the Top Four also finished in the Top Four. Mississippi State was ranked No. 1 in the first-ever CFP Top 25, only to miss the playoff. And good luck to LSU after debuting at No. 3, because the team in that spot in the first ranking has missed the playoff all four years.

On the flip side of that coin, Ohio State was No. 16 in the initial rankings four years ago, and the Buckeyes went on to win the national championship. The following year, Oklahoma started out at No. 15 and still found its way to the No. 4 seed.

So, rather than telling us who will play for the title, this first batch of rankings paints a semi-clear picture of who won't get that shot.

One team who may get more of a fair shake than it did last year is UCF. The Knights debut at No. 12, which is where they finished last season. They'll still need a ton of help in order to climb into the top four, but it's a significantly better start than last year (No. 18).

Also worth noting on the initial rankings: Notre Dame debuts at No. 4 and doesn't have that much of an opportunity to prove more to the committee. The Fighting Irish only have one remaining game against a current top 25 team, and it's against No. 22 Syracuse. Meanwhile, No. 5 Michigan, No. 6 Georgia and No. 7 Oklahoma will all get multiple shots against ranked teams and could leapfrog Notre Dame, regardless of whether it suffers a loss.

Read on for the full list of bowl projections heading into Week 10.