All you need to know about the current state of the fiscal cliff negotiations is that Republicans are scorpions and Democrats are frogs.

Do you know the story of the scorpion and the frog? A scorpion asks a frog if he can piggyback across a river. The frog says he’s afraid the scorpion will sting him. The scorpion points out that if he were to sting him then they both would drown. Persuaded, the frog invites the scorpion onto his back. When they’re halfway across the river the scorpion stings the frog. Gasping for breath, the frog says, “Why did you do that? Now we’ll both drown.” The scorpion replies, “I know. But I can’t help it. It’s my nature.”

The scorpion’s sting is, of course, the House GOP’s refusal to pass even House Speaker Boehner’s “Plan B” limiting the scheduled Jan. 1 tax increase to income above $1 million. This act of self-destruction invites a bigger automatic tax increase. But Republicans just can’t help themselves. The House GOP's refusal also increased Obama’s leverage, because in Washington’s version of this fable, the frog (President Obama) shakes the scorpion off his back, swims to shore, and lives happily ever after. Only the scorpion drowns. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve observed that this is one lucky frog.

Sen. Joe Lieberman insists on sticking to the original version of the tale. If America goes over the fiscal cliff, Lieberman said Dec. 23 on CNN’s State of the Union, “it will be the most colossal, consequential act of congressional irresponsibility in a long time, maybe ever in American history.” We all drown! But that isn’t true. It will merely be the most colossal, consequential act of Republican self-sabotage in a long time.

President Obama left Washington for his Christmas vacation in Hawaii urging congressional leaders to put together a stopgap deal blocking the Jan. 1 sequester (i.e., steep budget cuts), extending unemployment benefits, and allowing the scheduled Jan. 1 tax increase only on income above $250,000. That isn’t going to happen. We know it won’t happen because Boehner couldn’t get enough Republican votes behind his much more GOP-friendly Plan B. Conceivably Boehner could try to put together a coalition of Democrats and Republicans to pass Plan B, but that would put his speakership (which is up for renewal in a couple of weeks) at serious risk. Also, what would be in that for the Democrats? Much better to wait till Jan. 1, when Democrats can dare Republicans to oppose what by then will be a tax cut for incomes below $250,000.