“New Hampshire tonight has made Bill Clinton the comeback kid.”

So said Bill Clinton himself in February 1992, when a second-place finish behind the now largely forgotten Paul Tsongas in the state’s Democratic primary revived his fortunes. Later that year he would unseat George HW Bush in the presidential election.



Twenty-four years later, “the comeback kid” will return to the stump in New Hampshire on Monday. He will be hoping to administer another Lazarus-like political resuscitation. After the sting of rejection in 2008, when his wife was bested by a young upstart named Barack Obama, he will make the case for Hillary Clinton’s second shot at becoming the first woman in the White House.

This time the former secretary of state appears to be on course, with a comfortable lead in Democratic polls after debate performances that apparently neutralised the socialist insurgency of Bernie Sanders. Her campaign says it raised $37m in the past three months, a record for a non-incumbent, and more than $112m in all of 2015. The Republican field, meanwhile, remains overcrowded and chaotic.

But the Bill factor is the great unknown. Thus far he has taken a back seat, accompanying his wife on occasional campaign stops but not taking centre stage. Even at the Democratic debates, he has travelled with Clinton but has not been inside the arena – often choosing to watch from the hotel.

He remains both wildly charismatic and maddeningly undisciplined. He connotes both prosperous times and cynical scheming Frank Bruni, New York Times

“His proper role in, and impact on, his wife’s candidacy is unsettled and unclear,” New York Times columnist Frank Bruni wrote last week. “He remains both wildly charismatic and maddeningly undisciplined. He connotes both prosperous times and cynical scheming.”

Now set to be unleashed, Bill’s magnetism and oratory could be the ultimate campaign weapon. He often ranks as the most popular living US president in surveys and his speech at the 2012 Democratic convention gave a major boost to Obama’s re-election campaign. But those very same qualities could also overshadow the former first lady, whom some regard as lacking a personable and relatable demeanor.

Furthermore, Bill can be a loose cannon, prone to losing his temper and the kind of gaffes that hindered rather than helped in 2008. And this time the celebrated Clinton machine faces a challenge that might not quite compute, a man who describes himself as their “worst nightmare”: Donald Trump.

Even as Bill holds a rally in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Monday, Trump will be campaigning 20 miles away in Lowell. The Clintons might have attended Trump’s third wedding but the tycoon, bristling at accusations of sexism, has shown he will not hesitate to dig up skeletons from their past. He recently referenced Bill’s affair with Monica Lewinsky and branded him “one of the great abusers of the world”.

Will the former president be able to resist taking the bait? Two Republican pundits have opposing views on whether the Clinton campaign should attack.

George Ajjan said: “Trump’s outrageous statements are perfect layups for righteous indignation and handwringing by the Clintons, but they’re well served by keeping their distance from the real mud fight taking place between the Republicans themselves.”

Pollster Frank Luntz disagreed: “Yes, absolutely, because it solidifies him and it solidifies her. This is manna from heaven for her and he loves it too. This is one of those rare cases where both candidates benefit from attacking each other. And despite what he says, it would be very tough for him to beat her.”

Clinton spent last summer fighting accusations of inappropriate use of a personal email server during her time as secretary of state, an issue that threw an unexpected spanner in what was initially seen as a clear path to the nomination. But following an 11-hour hearing over the deadly 2012 terrorist attack on the US diplomatic facility in Benghazi in Libya, she emerged from the scandal relatively unscathed.

This is manna from heaven for Clinton and Trump loves it too Frank Luntz, Republican pollster

Indeed, the public disclosure of her emails have, if anything, helped to humanise her: it emerged, for example, that she watches The Good Wife and Parks and Recreation but needed an aide’s help to find Homeland.

Luntz added: “She’s doing much better now than she was months ago. Her speeches on the stump are better, her language is more effective, her ads are quite good, her debate performances – although she’s made a major mistake in each one that will come back to haunt her – are better than most people expected. 2015 has been a good year for her, and was a great year when you consider what it might have been. She’s coming into 2016 with some steam but she still has a pesky opponent. I think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire.”

Clinton will kickstart what she hopes is her year of destiny (and which will also include a second grandchild) at a school canteen in Concord, New Hampshire, on Sunday, followed by visits to Iowa – where the first Democratic caucus is held next month – and Las Vegas. Then come fundraisers in Los Angeles and Palo Alto, a gilt-edged opportunity to court donors from Hollywood and Silicon Valley, some of whom salivate at the prospect of a third Clinton term and are happy to treat the election as a referendum on the Clinton years in the White House – a period when, as it happens, Trump’s bank balance swelled.



Even so, there are times when Clinton has had to perform a tap dance, embracing “the Clinton school of economics” while carefully distancing herself from portions of her 69-year-old husband’s legacy. One example is trade, where his historic agreement, Nafta, has served as the root of anti-trade sentiment among labour unions and opposition to Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership. Clinton, under pressure from Sanders on her left flank, raised objections to the TPP a few months ago.

Jimmy Fallon, portraying Donald Trump, and Hillary Clinton appear in a skit on The Tonight Show, in September. Photograph: Douglas Gorenstein/AP

On criminal justice, too, Bill’s tough policies are now largely blamed for America’s unwanted status as the world’s biggest incarcerator: more than 2.2 million prisoners in all. The maiden speech of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, in New York, was dedicated to criminal justice and called for an end to the “era of mass incarceration”.

Without criticising her husband’s administration, she implicitly acknowledged its role – particularly with respect to sentencing laws – and has embraced a far more progressive agenda on the subject. Bill, too, has said in retrospect his policies did not have the intended effect, comments which have further freed Clinton to push her platform.



Past polling suggests that even reviving the Lewinsky scandal may only help Clinton by eliciting sympathy. Survey data from the Pew Research Center showed that her favourability rating jumped to 66% in 1998 at the time her husband was impeached.

“Two-thirds of Americans say they admire Hillary Clinton’s decision to stand by her husband and nearly as many have a favourable opinion of the first lady,” Pew noted.

This remains one of the least predictable American elections in recent memory. But Clinton has the advantage of a proven winner, the comeback kid, at her side and seemingly no surprise Obama-like figure able to out-Clinton the Clintons. After 44 men in the White House over more than two centuries, there has never been a better chance of a female president. The primary is hers to lose.

Shaun Bowler, professor of political science at the University of California, Riverside, said: “Hillary Clinton is a formidable campaigner and runs a smart, well-organised and disciplined campaign. These are clearly strengths – and they speak to just what Bill’s role will be.

“It’s clear that he could overshadow her but the campaign will not let that happen.”