Has the coronavirus given America - and Alabama - a recession or depression? And if so, how long until they bounce back?

An analysis by two University of Alabama economists says that depends on what our response to the crisis will be.

Sam Addy, associate dean for economic development outreach and senior research economist, and Ahmad Ijaz, the Center for Business and Economic Research’s executive director and director of economic forecasting, have released an analysis of the state and national outlook in the midst of the measures in place against COVID-19.

Their analysis is potentially positive, depending on how the U.S. and Alabama adapt to the situation. The immediate concern, they write, is to survive, recover and develop. The U.S. has the resources to get through the struggle, even if it takes the more pessimistic timeline of 18 months.

“It is important to note that pandemics occur within economies and so are not separate from them,” their analysis states. “A good response will result in a better economy than an abysmal response would.”

A recession has traditionally been defined as two consecutive quarters or six straight months of negative economic growth. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit research organization, defines one as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months," which can be seen in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales. A depression is when negative growth carries on for years.

Nationally, analysts like Goldman Sachs say the U.S. economic output could plummet 24 percent through June compared to totals last year, and that unemployment could rise as high as nine percent.

Alabama accounts for 1.1 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product, and 1.5 percent of the population. So, a $1 trillion national impact could mean an $11 billion to $15 billion impact on Alabama.

Addy and Ajaz say second quarter Alabama GDP will most likely decline by about 3 to 4 percent, with employment falling much faster.

“Any recovery in the third quarter will be quite weak due to supply-side constraints facing Alabama manufacturers and weak consumer demand and business spending,” they write, which assumes that parts of the country begin lifting shelter-in-place regulations. “Optimistically, the state economy will be back on a normal path of recovery by the fourth quarter.”

But that’s not without trauma to the state’s retail sector, travel sector, food services, tourism, support services, auto dealers and manufacturers that rely on exports or imported goods. Together, that makes up about 58 percent of the total non-farm employment in Alabama.

Together, the drag on those should keep the economy lagging by the third quarter of the year. Alabama’s exports to China, its third largest trading partner, will probably be affected.

“Furloughs and layoffs will be common. The expected significant declines in economic activity will adversely affect income, sales, lodging, gas, and other tax revenues for both state and local government entities,” they write.

They note that strong policy responses - like the $2 trillion stimulus that passed Congress last week - should allow business and government to weather the effects of coronavirus’ halt to most economic activity.

It’s still too early to know the full effects of the pandemic and the efforts to stem its spread on the economy. Nationally, the two estimate it will take an injection of about $1 trillion a month to repair some of the damage to GDP, personal income, employment, wages and salaries and government revenue, a high but affordable amount for the U.S.

Most sectors will see negative effects, but some health-related, logistics, communications and technology companies could fare better than others, as well as those that can retool to fulfill needs in manufacturing.