Changing reality of free agency brings uncertainty for Josh Donaldson

Josh Donaldson is in the right place at the wrong time.

The 2015 American League MVP remains one of the game’s best all-around players and is coming off three remarkably consistent seasons, statistically speaking. The streets of his free agency should be paved with gold next winter, even as he turns 33, but the new reality of player compensation emerging in Major League Baseball is working directly against players just like him.

Baseball is a young player’s game. Sometimes, that’s because they’re better. Sometimes, that’s because they’re still under a system of six team control years that directly benefits the teams and owners by repressing their earning potential during their physical peak. It’s got a nice ring to it, no?

Donaldson’s only mistake has been reaching stardom a bit late. His rookie eligibility did not expire until the 2012 season, setting him up to hit the market much later in his career than Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, who both debuted at 19 and will hit free agency at 26. By Donaldson’s 26th birthday, he hadn’t even established himself as an everyday player.

Comparable cases and cautionary tales aren’t hard to find. When Jose Bautista entered spring training in 2016 on the last year of his contract, reports circulated that Bautista, then 35, was seeking at least $150 million over a five-year contract extension. Had a deal in that neighbourhood been signed — or even one in the next neighbourhood over, for that matter — it would already look like one of baseball’s worst contracts just one year in.

Teams have watched Ryan Howard post a .706 OPS from 2014 to 2016 (ages 34-36) at a price tag of $75 million plus a $10 million buyout.

Teams have watched the Boston Red Sox pay Pablo Sandoval $48 million at age 30 to not play for them over the latter half of his five-year, $95 million contract.

Teams can see that Albert Pujols is owed $114 million over the next four seasons, taking him up to age 41, despite failing to top a .790 OPS since 2012.

Teams can see that Miguel Cabrera is owed $184 million over the next six seasons, taking him up to age 40. They can also see that the two-time MVP and 11-time all star is coming off the worst season of his career, at age 34, on a team trying to rebuild.

That’s the bad news.

The good news is that Donaldson and his agent can point to some more encouraging examples of players maintaining their offensive production into their mid and late 30s. Here is a look at three familiar sluggers and how they fared in their four seasons from age 33 to 36:

HR (avg) OPS (avg) fWAR (avg) Adrian Beltre 26 .868 5.5 David Ortiz 28 .906 2.4 Nelson Cruz 41.5 .908 4.1

Regardless of where Josh Donaldson plays baseball in 2019 and beyond, Adrian Beltre is his ideal outcome. The Texas star not only maintained his success from 33 to 36, he’s kept the pedal down over the past two seasons despite missing some time in 2017. The defensive aspect of the Beltre comparison is critical, too, as he’s stuck at third base into his late 30s and continued to play very well in the field.

That’s rare. In 2017, only three players 34 and older took more than 200 plate appearances as a third baseman (Beltre was joined by Yunel Escobar and David Freese, neither of whom posted strong offensive seasons). You would need to look all the way back to the 2013 season to find an example or five or more players aged 34 or older taking 200+ plate appearances as third basemen. That was also the last season that over 20 players (21) 34 or older, league wide and at all positions, made 450+ plate appearances.

If Josh Donaldson can pull a Beltre, any deal he signs should be easily fulfilled. It’s just a matter of what deals will be on the table.

The Blue Jays do have a level they’re comfortable approaching right now with Donaldson, but taking one more year to collect as much data as possible also has its value. Especially with a 32-year-old player, especially with the hindsight of Jose Bautista.

That additional year of data with Bautista included some minor injuries and a slight regression in overall performance, especially power numbers. Teams will go well beyond OPS and home run totals to measure potential declines, or even predict breakouts, as Toronto did so well with Justin Smoak. In that sense, Donaldson’s batted ball data will be monitored closely by the Blue Jays and all potential free agent suitors this summer.

Let’s compare his last two seasons to Jose Bautista’s last two seasons, which illustrates how a minor slip looks next to a true decline.

Josh Donaldson wRC+ Exit Velocity (avg) % of balls hit 95+ mph 2016 155 92.0 mph 49.5% 2017 149 90.5 mph 42.5%

Jose Bautista wRC+ Exit Velocity (avg) % of balls hit 95+ mph 2016 122 91.6 mph 46.3% 2017 80 88.4 mph 34.9%

The slight decline in Donaldson’s average exit velocity and consistency of hard contact are little more than a year-to-year variance, especially in a season where he battled calf injuries. When a real decline happens, as it often does for players reaching their mid-30s, it happens like it did to Bautista. Sudden, ugly, and unforgiving.

So much of this thinking views Donaldson through a pessimistic lens. Even worse, it’s a pessimism projection, looking not only for current signs of decline, but indicators of future possibilities and maybes and hypotheticals.

And that’s why Major League Baseball’s free agent market sits where it does, with star-calibre players still collecting dust as pitchers and catchers begin to report. Groupthink is king and memories are short, meaning that Donaldson’s 2018 season isn’t just about reaching free agency healthy and with a stable value.

Instead, he’ll still be forced to establish his value — again and again — in a broken market that’s slanted against him.

Photo by Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0]