by Vince Verhei

If you didn't watch the Philadelphia Eagles lose to the Atlanta Falcons 30-17 on Sunday, here's the gist of the story: The Eagles are 3-4. They've lost three in a row and four of their last five. After the game, coach Andy Reid said he'd consider benching quarterback Michael Vick for rookie Nick Foles if he thought it would make the team better. Vick confirmed that Reid was considering a quarterback switch and vowed to stand by his coach's decision. Is it time to cut ties with Vick, or is there hope that he could have something in the tank for 2013?

We can try to answer that question by using Football Outsiders' similarity scores. Similarity scores were originally developed by baseball analyst Bill James and have since been adapted by countless other writers studying a wide variety of sports. The concept is simple: Plug each quarterback's numbers into a computer and search for which of his historical predecessors had similar figures, then examine how those predecessors played from that point forward. FO's system is primarily used to project future performance, so it includes off-field variables like height, weight, age, and draft round. For our purposes, we'll project Vick's 2012 stats over a full 16-game schedule, which would see him finish with 3,730 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. We're also going to use Vick's 2010 and 2011 data to look for long-term matches and eliminate one-year flukes.

Top 10 QBs most similar to Michael Vick, 2010-12 Name Team Years Com% Yds/Gm TD-INT Rtg. Sacks Michael Vick* PHI 2010-12 60.2% 245.2 57-38 86.3 103 Donovan McNabb PHI 2006-08 60.0% 247.2 60-24 89.7 88 Archie Manning NO 1978-80 60.9% 214.6 55-56 79.9 95 Jim Kelly BUF 1991-93 61.2% 227.3 74-54 86.3 76 Joe Montana SF 1988-90 63.7% 248.7 70-34 95.6 96 Joe Theismann WAS 1982-84 60.6% 222.9 66-33 91.6 112 Steve McNair TEN 2000-02 61.6% 203.9 58-40 85.7 82 Mark Brunell JAC 1998-00 59.5% 211.4 54-32 84.9 111 Steve Beuerlein CAR 1998-00 61.0% 245.0 72-45 87.6 156 Kerry Collins NYG/OAK 2003-05 55.4% 246.8 54-48 74.4 92 John Elway DEN 1989-91 55.5% 209.1 46-44 76.0 123 *2012 statistics projected over 16 games.

That's quite a mix of quarterbacks, largely made up of 20th Century Hall of Fame types and 21st Century mediocrities. It actually shows one of the weaknesses of similarity scores, which is that we've never been able to figure out an accurate way to do them so that stats are normalized for a player's era and the way the game has changed over time. In 1980, Archie Manning's completion percentage (60.7%), yards per game (232.3), and passer rating (81.8) were all among the ten best in the NFL. Vick's numbers this season look similar on the surface (59.0%, 260.0, 78.6), but he ranks 25th, 14th, and 25th in these categories in 2012.

The most intriguing name on that list might be Donovan McNabb, who falls somewhere between mediocrity and Hall of Fame candidate on the quarterback scale. It's quite a coincidence that the most similar player to Vick over the past three years is actually the man he replaced in Philadelphia. That probably shows the influence Reid had over McNabb, and has over Vick. Essentially, Vick has become McNabb with a little more rushing ability, but also with more sacks and turnovers. That may not be what the Eagles had hoped for when they signed Vick to a six-year, $100 million contract a little more than a year ago, but it's hard to say that they made a mistake shipping McNabb out of town. After 2008, McNabb had one more good year as a starter in Philadelphia, one bad year as a starter in Washington, a spectacular six-game flameout with Minnesota, and then retirement.

And that is the one unifying thread connecting the quarterbacks on this list: almost all were near the end of their careers. Six of Vick's most similar matches had two years or fewer left as starting quarterbacks, and only one had more than three seasons remaining. John Elway played seven more seasons after 1991, and probably could have played more if he wanted (in his final season, Elway was among the ten highest-rated passers in football and won the Super Bowl). If you think Vick's going to last more than another season or two, you're basically saying he's going to have the work ethic, training habits, and physical durability of John Elway, and you're going to be very lonely in that opinion.

On the other hand, only one player on that list (Beuerlein) never started again. It's been a rough start for Vick this year, but it's probably a mistake to say he can't play in the league anymore. And that makes the timing of this proposed quarterback switch so curious. Vick had 11 turnovers (counting interceptions and all fumbles, no matter who recovered them) in the season's first four games, but the Eagles won three of those contests thanks in large part to a defense that gave up only six touchdowns in that timeframe. Then the turnovers became too much to overcome, as the Eagles lost back-to-back games to the Steelers and Lions. The Eagles defense gave up three combined touchdowns in those two games, while Vick turned the ball over six more times. If the Eagles were going to switch quarterbacks, that might have been the time to do it. Instead, Andy Reid somehow looked at these results and determined that the defense was costing his team games, and fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo.

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Which brings us to the Falcons game. The Eagles lost, obviously, but it's hard to pin this one on Vick. It wasn't his best day, but he produced 220 yards of offense in 45 plays without a single turnover. Meanwhile, without Castillo, the Eagles defense played their worst game of the year, letting the Falcons score on each of their first six possessions before they spent the fourth quarter running out the clock. The proper thing to do here may have been to send flowers to Castillo's house with a note of apology and a request to return. Reid, though, decided that Vick was to blame, and alerted his quarterback that his job was in danger.

And that's the state of things in Philadelphia. Forget about fixing problems, this team can't even diagnose them properly. That's why a quarterback change won't fix anything, and neither will the dismissal of assistant coaches. There's only one man overseeing everything in Philadelphia, and after 14 mostly successful seasons it appears he has lost his touch. If Michael Vick is going to lose his job, then Andy Reid deserves to lose his too.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Tom Brady NE 23/35 304 4 0 246 242 4 The Patriots were so dominant that Brady threw 14 passes in the red zone alone. Before the Monday Night game, 49ers quarterback Alex Smith only had 14 red zone passes all season. Brady's numbers inside the Rams' 20: 7-of-13 for 71 yards, plus a 7-yard DPI, for four touchdowns and two other first downs. 2. Matt Ryan ATL 22/29 262 3 0 190 183 6 Ryan threw touchdowns on each of Atlanta's first three drives, going 12-of-13 for 157 yards, plus two DPIs for 23 more yards. That's 10 first downs (including the three scores) in his first 14 dropbacks. 3. Matt Stafford DET 34/49 352 3 1 180 179 1 Stafford's accuracy on third downs was unbelievable. In the first half he went 7-of-8 for 91 yards on third down, although only four of those completions gained first downs (including a 46-yard touchdown). In the second half, though, he dropped back seven times on third downs and produced seven completions for seven first downs, including the game-winning touchdown. Those seven throws also gained 56 yards. 4. Alex Smith SF 18/19 232 3 0 148 145 2 5. Peyton Manning DEN 22/30 305 3 0 137 138 -2 Of course, if you're really good on first down, you don't have to worry about third downs. Manning went 9-of-10 on first downs for 197 yards and eight first downs, including a touchdown. 6. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 24/33 222 3 0 122 127 -5 Roethlisberger was also at his best on first downs, going 12-of-14 for 130 yards and eight first downs. 7. Russell Wilson SEA 25/35 252 2 1 120 114 6 Wilson's statline against Detroit was nice enough, but most importantly for Seattle is where Wilson had his success. In the first seven weeks of the year, Wilson had most of his success on deep passes. Counting pass interference flags as receptions, he completed 51 percent of his passes that traveled 16 yards or more past the line of scrimmage, higher than the league average of 45 percent. However, he lacked consistent touch and accuracy on shorter throws, hitting only 64 percent of the time (league average: 67 percent). Green Bay and New England can tell you all about Wilson's ability to hit the deep ball, but due to his erratic short passing the Seattle offense often sputtered and stalled. Against the Lions, though, Wilson found his short game, completing 23-of-30 short passes (that's 77 percent accuracy) for 218 yards. The Seahawks came up short on Sunday, but if Wilson keeps playing like this, they'll have many more victories down the road. 8. Josh Freeman TB 19/36 262 3 0 87 91 -4 Quite a streaky game for Freeman. At separate points in this game, he went 2-of-7 for 9 yards and no first downs; 0-for-5; and 2-of-5 for 13 yards with a sack and no first downs. On the other hand, he also had streaks where he went 5-of-6 for 54 yards and five first downs, including a touchdown; 3-of-3 for 93 yards and three first downs, including a touchdown; and 4-of-5 for 71 yards and four first downs. 9. Matt Moore MIA 11/19 131 1 0 48 48 0 Moore ranks this highly mainly because he had no turnovers, and his only sack was a 1-yard loss on first down, so it didn't kill him. Take away three third-down plays — a 4-yard touchdown to Anthony Fasano, a 30-yard play to Jabar Gaffney (his only catch this season), and a 37-yard gain by Marlon Moore — and the Dolphins' backup quarterback was below replacement level. 10. Tony Romo DAL 36/61 437 1 4 38 30 9 All right, this is going to take some explanation. Why does Romo rank so high? Technically Romo threw four interceptions, but one of those came on a fourth-down and is treated like any other incomplete pass. Romo's other three picks, plus his four sacks, totaled -190 DYAR. How many good plays did Romo need to offset those seven bad ones? Ten. Romo's ten best plays included six completions of at least 20 yards, including a 55-yarder; a 20-yard DPI; a pair of 15-yard gains on third-and-5 and third-and-10; and a 1-yard touchdown on second-and-goal. And aside from those 17 plays, Romo went 27-of-49 for 229 yards, including 12 first downs and 12 other successful completions. Also, it was a pretty bad week for quarterbacks. 11. Michael Vick PHI 21/35 177 1 0 36 32 4 The Falcons specialize in taking away the deep pass. Opponents have thrown only 36 deep balls against Atlanta. Only the Chiefs and Panthers have seen fewer deep passes, and those teams are a combined 2-12, so opponents haven't needed to gamble much with deep passes. The Falcons are undefeated usually protecting leads, and they still make sure to cover everything deep. Meanwhile, Michael Vick is a deep-ball specialist, fifth in the league with 58 such throws. Against Atlanta, though, he was neutered, throwing just one deep pass all day, a throw to DeSean Jackson 18 yards past the line of scrimmage on second-and-2 in the second quarter. The pass fell incomplete. 12. John Skelton ARI 32/52 290 0 1 33 37 -4 Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Matt Hasselbeck TEN 22/29 236 1 0 29 24 4 The Titans lost in overtime, in large part due to Hasselbeck's struggles inside the Indianapolis 40, aside from his 23-yard touchdown to Kendall Wright. He did complete seven of his eight other passes, but for only 28 yards and one first down, with a fumbled snap and two sacks. 14. Carson Palmer OAK 14/28 209 2 1 23 23 0 One of Palmer's touchdowns was a 9-yarder to Denarius Moore on third-and-8. Otherwise he went only 1-of-8 on third downs, and that one completion was a 4-yard gain on third-and-8. 15. Andrew Luck IND 26/38 297 1 1 19 17 2 The good news is that Luck went 7-of-9 on third downs for 81 yards and five first downs. The bad news is that in regulation, he went 1-of-5 in the red zone, and that only completion was a 9-yard gain on third-and-10. He did throw one red zone pass in overtime, and it was a game-winning 16-yard touchdown to Vick Ballard. 16. Aaron Rodgers GB 22/35 186 2 0 9 6 4 Rodgers was unusually useless in the middle of this game. In the second and third quarters, he went 13-of-21 for 92 yards with two sacks and only three first downs. 17. Cam Newton CAR 20/39 314 0 2 8 1 6 The Bears defense is really good. Without opponent adjustments, Newton would have been virtually tied for last place this week. However, they are somewhat vulnerable to deep passes. Newton went 5-of-10 on deep balls for 163 yards, although none of those completions were touchdowns. 18. Blaine Gabbert JAC 27/49 303 1 0 4 11 -7 First half: 14-of-25 for 195 yards with 10 first downs, including a touchdown. Second half: 13-of-24 for 108 yards and four first downs, with a sack-fumble. 19. Philip Rivers SD 18/33 154 0 0 -14 -14 0 On Cleveland's half of the field, Rivers went 6-of-11 for 28 yards and only two first downs. 20. Matt Cassel KC 20/30 218 1 1 -16 -19 3 The Chiefs were only down 13-6 at halftime. Then Cassel's first play after halftime was a fumbled snap, recovered by Oakland. For the rest of the third quarter, Cassel went 7-of-10, but for only 45 yards and two first downs, and by the time the fourth quarter began Oakland was up 23-9. 21. Drew Brees NO 22/42 213 2 1 -23 -22 -1 Third downs: one 9-yard gain on third-and-4, one 12-yard gain on third-and-20, nine incompletions, one sack-fumble. 22. Robert Griffin WAS 16/34 177 1 0 -26 -20 -5 In the second quarter, Griffin hit Santana Moss for a 2-yard touchdown to make it 10-6, Pittsburgh. To that point, he was 5-of-8 for 58 yards and five first downs, including that touchdown. He then threw six incompletions in a row to end the first half, and the Redskins never got gloser than two touchdowns again. He was also held to three rushes for 11 yards. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Christian Ponder MIN 19/35 251 1 1 -27 -28 0 Ponder's first five passes of the game, three of them on third downs, were all incomplete. His next pass was complete for 4 yards on second-and-9, but the receiver (who will we get too before the end of this piece) fumbled the ball away. And that was the end of Ponder's first-quarter action. His first pass of the second quarter was complete to Percy Harvin for 32 yards, but by that point Minnesota was down 13-0, and the Vikings never really threatened to take the lead after that. 24. Eli Manning NYG 15/29 192 0 1 -40 -39 0 As usual, Manning played best in the fourth quarter. Through three periods, he was 9-of-23 for 124 yards with four first downs, one interception, and one sack. In the fourth frame, he went 6-of-6 for 68 yards and three first downs. 25. Brandon Weeden CLE 11/27 129 0 0 -45 -46 2 In San Diego's half of the field, Weeden went 1-of-8, with his only completion a 9-yard gain on third-and-10, with two sacks. He had no plays in the red zone. Keep in mind that Weeden played against Philip Rivers this week. What a spectacle that must have been. 26. Jay Cutler CHI 19/28 186 1 1 -61 -59 -2 OK, seriously, why do the Bears ever throw in the first quarter anymore? Cutler went 3-of-4 for 29 yards and two first downs in the first quarter, with three sacks, one interception, and a fumble. Then, in the fourth quarter, he went 12-of-14 for 106 yards and eight first downs, including a touchdown. In the first quarter this season, Cutler has been sacked eight times and thrown four intereptions. He has -404 DYAR in the first quarter, far and away the worst in football. Nobody else is even at -200. However, he's fourth in DYAR in the fourth quarter and overtime. 27. Sam Bradford STL 23/30 205 1 1 -65 -61 -4 Bradford went 9-of-10 in the second quarter, which sounds good, but he picked up only 50 yards and two first downs. On New England's half of the field, he went 2-of-6 for 15 yards with no first downs, one sack and two interceptions. Keep in mind this was the same game in which Tom Brady threw 14 passes in the red zone alone. 28. Mark Sanchez NYJ 28/54 283 1 1 -65 -67 2 Honestly, Sanchez wasn't that bad on Sunday. He had a higher DVOA than Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Brandon Weeden, or Sam Bradford. However, he was bad, and because he was bad over so many more attempts than anyone else, he ended up with more negative DYAR. He was, however, a disaster in the red zone. He did have a 5-yard touchdown to Chaz Schilens, but he failed to complete any of his other eight passes inside the Miami 20, and one of them was intercepted.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Doug Martin TB 135 1 79 1 68 42 26 Nine of his 29 carries went for no gain or a loss, but four went for 10 yards or more, including a 41-yarder, plus a touchdown on third-and-goal from the 1. Only caught three of the six passes thrown his way, but those three receptions were a 6-yard gain on first-and-10, a 9-yard gain on second-and-8, and a 64-yarder on second-and-11. 2. Trent Richardson CLE 122 1 12 0 48 41 8 Richardson has very good games and very bad games, and almost nothing in between. He was among the bottom five running backs in total DYAR in Weeks 1, 6, and 7, when he averaged 39 yards from scrimmage. However, he finished in the top five in Weeks 2, 4, and 8, when he cranked out 128 total yards per game. Richardson ran 24 times for 122 yards against San Diego. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss five times, but he had 13 runs of 4 yards or more and five carries for 10 yards or more, including a 26-yard touchdown. He also caught the only pass thrown his way for 12 more yards. 3. Willis McGahee DEN 122 1 33 0 48 30 17 Only one of his 24 runs resulted in a loss of yardage (and that one was fumbled away), but four runs for 10 or more yards four other short runs for first downs, including a goal-line touchdown. Also caught both of the passes thrown his way for gains of 14 and 19 yards. 4. Stevan Ridley NE 127 1 0 0 39 39 0 Ridley only had 15 runs against St. Louis, and five of those runs resulted in no gain or a loss. However, he had a 1-yard touchdown, and five big runs for 11, 16, 20, 30, and 41 yards. 5. Joique Bell DET 25 0 33 0 34 8 26 Seven carries that each gained between 2 and 5 yards, but Bell did his real damage as a receiver. He caught each of the four passes thrown his way. Three of them picked up first downs (including an 11-yard gain on third-and-10), and the other was a 5-yard gain on first-and-10.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Michael Turner ATL 58 0 6 0 -41 -40 -1 Seven of his 24 carries went for no gain or a loss, one a stuff on fourth-and-1, and he also had a fumble. He had only one run over 10 yards, an 11-yarder in the third quarter, and had only one other first down all day. The Falcons threw him two passes and he caught one for 6 yards. OTHER BACKS OF LITTLE VALUE: Felix Jones, DAL (13 carries for 25 yards and a fumble, no catches in three targets); Alex Green, GB: (22 carries for 54 yards, four catches for 28 yards in six targets); Darren McFadden, OAK (29 carries for 114 yards, seven runs for no gain or a loss, four catches for 23 yards in six targets).

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Julio Jones ATL 5 5 123 24.6 1 84 The Falcons threw him six balls, and counting a 22-yard DPI, five of them produced first downs. The other was a 6-yard gain on second-and-10. Had a 63-yard touchdown and another gain of 37 yards. Also had one carry for a 9-yard gain. 2. Titus Young DET 9 9 100 11.1 2 68 Only two of his catches gained 10 or more yards, including his 46-yard touchdown. However, four of his seven shorter catches produced first downs, including the game-winning score in the fourth quarter. 3. Demaryius Thomas DEN 7 9 137 19.6 1 51 Six of Thomas' catches produced first downs, including a 1-yard touchdown, plus four plays of 20 yards or more, including a 41-yarder. 4. Michael Crabtree SF 5 5 72 14.4 2 50 If you're looking for Jason WItten and his 18 catches, he was in fifth place before Monday night. 5. Rob Gronkowski NE 8 13 146 18.2 2 46 All of Gronkowski's catches gained at least 7 yards and a first down, including three gains of 20 yards or more, capped off by a 32-yarder.