At the end of a week which has witnessed for the first time the bizarre and disturbing spectacle of The New York Times publishing an op-ed by Taliban deputy leader Sirajuddin Haqqani — a terrorist on the FBI's most wanted list — a week-long "reductioa n in violence" between the US, the Taliban and Afghan forces is set to begin Friday at midnight.

Assuming it holds, this will lead to the US signing a historic peace deal with the Taliban on February 29 in a "signing ceremony" with senior representatives from both sides.

But the biggest hurdle after that, in a process which could ultimately see a complete withdrawal of American forces after eighteen years of war, will be the intra-Afghan talks involving various political parties in the country.

Image source: BBC/Getty

The Taliban considers the national government American forces imposed after the 2001 invasion to be a "US puppet" and has previously refused to engage with it.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Friday that the US had “come to an understanding with the Taliban” — words that sound incredibly strange after nearly two decades of the post 9/11 "war on terror".

“We are preparing for the signing to take place on February 29,” Pompeo said of the signing which is to take place in Doha, Qatar. “Intra-Afghan negotiations will start soon thereafter, and will build on this fundamental step to deliver a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and the future political road map for Afghanistan.”

After decades of conflict, we have come to an understanding with the Taliban on a significant reduction in violence across #Afghanistan. This is an important step on a long road to peace, and I call on all Afghans to seize this opportunity. — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) February 21, 2020

But again this is the roadblock that could derail things before they really get off the ground:

The Afghan election commission earlier this week declared the president, Ashraf Ghani, the winner of the presidential elections held in September but his rivals quickly denounced his win. The Taliban have refused to talk to Ghani’s government and also denounced the election results, saying they will talk to government representatives but only as ordinary Afghans.

The Taliban has said the deal will be off if it doesn't lead to a total US troop exit.

There's also the question of the exchange of thousands of prisoners currently being held by both sides.

A key controversial aspect to the start of intra-Afghan talks will be that "5,000 Taliban prisoners from Afghan government prisons will be released, and 1,000 government forces prisoners will be released by the Taliban" — however it's unclear whether Kabul is actually on board with this.