The euro zone economy shifted up a gear in autumn 2014, stimulated by the notable depreciation of the euro and the slide in energy prices. Since then it has grown at a rate of 0.4% per quarter. In the coming months, stimuli from the exchange rate and the crude oil price should diminish.



The weaker demand from emerging markets should then be felt even more acutely. Since the start of the year, imports into emerging markets have fallen in real terms. In the long run, euro zone exports will not be able to decouple from this trend.



Commerzbank forecasts





The exports will already rise more slowly in the second half of this year, dampening economic growth. Accordingly, the growth rates of only ¼% per quarter for the second half of the year

This weaker global demand will be felt above all in the export-oriented industries. At 52.5 in June, the purchasing managers' index for manufacturing has probably reached its peak for now.

A slight decline to 52.0 for July. In Germany, the index looks set to fall from 51.9 to 51.5.

Not only the index for manufacturing, but also its counterpart for the service sector, should trend slightly downwards in the coming months. In concrete terms, a fall can be seen by 0.4 points to 54.0 for July

In Germany, the index should decline from 53.8 to 53.5