Can the return of Greg Maddux’s ghost keep up his success?

Photo by Steve Schar via Flickr

For all of the great performances this Chicago Cubs team saw in 2016, one player’s impressive run stood out. It may have proved to be the most eyebrow-raising season in baseball.

His name is Kyle Hendricks.

The Cubs success in 2017 will largely depend on him repeating his breakout year. But is his sudden success sustainable?

Kyle Hendricks started the 2016 campaign as a fringe starter. Hendricks was clearly in the starting rotation, but could quickly lose that spot if a trade were to occur or if Travis Wood showed enough promise.

Instead, Hendricks parlayed his second full season in the majors into a third place NL Cy Young finish behind bonafide aces Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.

Hendricks should find himself in this discussion for years to come if his current progression continues.

The lanky, 27 year old righty led Major League Baseball in Earned Run Average (ERA) with an astounding 2.13 average on the year, en route to a 16–8 record. Hendricks also managed to throw over 190 innings in 30 starts, pretty good for a guy who had issues getting past a lineup the third time through in 2015.

The question is, will this be the type of season Cubs fans can come to expect from the Dartmouth grad, or will it be remembered as a one-time fluke?

Some of the peripheral numbers seem to suggest a regression to the mean.

Kyle’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ended at 3.20, a full run higher than his actual ERA. This number suggests Hendricks numbers can be largely attributed to the Cubs historic defense at his side.

This is also a similar to FIP to his 2015 season (3.36) where Hendricks’ ERA finished at 3.95. In fact, most of Hendricks’ 2016 numbers are nearly identical to his 2015 counterparts. From his strikeouts to his walks, Hendricks had very similar numbers over the past two seasons, except with very different results. So why is it that suddenly Hendricks can now be relied upon for ace-like numbers on an annual basis?

Well for one, the Cubs defense that aided Hendricks in 2016 isn’t going anywhere. In fact, with Javier Baez playing more games at second base and rookie Albert Almora taking most of the time in center, this year’s version of the defense may even be an upgrade.

Hendricks will always pitch to contact, as he has struck out less than one hitter per inning over his career, so having a capable defense around him will always be critical to his success.

Furthermore, Hendricks is among the best in the majors at avoiding hard and solid contact. Hendricks allowed a remarkable 25.8 percent of his batted balls to be considered hard contact. Compare this to the Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, who allowed a significantly higher 30.1 percent of his batted balls to be hit hard.

Hendricks hard hit rate stacks up very similarly to his most common former Cub comparison, Greg Maddux. The “Mad Dog” had a hard hit rate of 25.7 precent for his career while Kyle currently sits at 25.6 percent over his three seasons.

If Hendricks can continue to limit his walks while avoiding his opponents’ bat barrels, there is no reason to think that he can’t repeat his success on the mound. His 2016 performance is a yearly baseline for what to expect from “The Professor.”

So prepare yourself National League, class is in session for years to come.

Jason Schwartz is the Editor in Chief of BulletinBoard, a Chicago Bulls blog. Only his love for the Cubs would dare him to write elsewhere. You can find him on Twitter here.