One big point of emphasis here. This is not a mock draft. It’s a “big board” which means this is a list or players roughly in the order I estimate their talent level/usefulness to NBA teams *in general*. To be honest, I don’t have much interest in predicting what teams will actually do. Well, except maybe for the Warriors. Second point of emphasis, tiers are more important than rankings within tiers. The tier labels are what I could envision being ultimate upside. Of course, some players will invariably play above or below the tiers as I’ve constructed them. Hopefully, I am within +/- 1 tier when it’s all said and done! I don’t have time (and nobody is paying) to do a full breakdown of every prospect, but hopefully my little blurbs will be somewhat useful to you. Finally, at the end of each prospect blurb I give subjective rankings in the following 10 offensive and defensive categories that I find useful (scale is 1–5 for each):

Offense

Spacer — ability to space the floor (“gravity”) with shooting off the dribble or on the move.

Facilitator — ability to run an offense or keep an offense flowing (ball stopping dribble pounders will have low scores here).

Creator — ability to create shots off the dribble, coming off screens, rolling to the basket, cutting, etc.

Finisher — ability to finish shots, regardless of shot location (but taking into account relative efficiencies of 3pt vs 2pt, layups vs mid-range, etc).

Rebounder — should be self-explanatory

Defense

Stopper — point of attack defense, penetration stopper.

Protector — rim protector + ability to hold position in paint and keep opposing big men from establishing deep position.

Exploder — (“play exploder”) ability to deflect passes, create turnovers off-ball, generally wreak havoc on opposing offenses

Extender — (“play extender”) ability to switch, hard closeouts to the 3pt line, team defense

Rebounder — self-explanatory

Tier 1 — All-NBA/MVP

1 Luka Doncic (Feb 28, 1999) — Real Madrid — 6'7" 218 lbs

A “does everything” basketball player. Players don’t come around often with the skill level Luka exhibits a) for his size and b) for his age. There are some fairly valid concerns about how his game will translate to the NBA in terms of athleticism and even his 3pt shooting. I think of those two concerns, the 3pt shooting is the one I’m a bit more skeptical about than most. On roughly 500 3PA over his last two seasons in Euroleague/ACB/Spanish Cup, Doncic has shot 32%. That’s not great. One mitigating factor (similar to Trae) is that he takes a ton of ridiculously tough pull-up 3’s from what looks like beyond NBA range. My guess is when he comes to the NBA he will start out his career around 34–36%. If he does that and can improve from there, even if he tops out around 38%, I think the sky is the limit as a guy who will be able to create his own shot, bend defenses with his gravity and make tons of plays for his teammates. I think with his size he will be somewhat switchable onto 2s, 3s, and 4s. With his IQ and skill level it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up being a pesky team defender with good enough hands to create some turnovers. If he fails, it’s because “Europe bla bla yada yada who knows translation difficult Hulk real fire Luka smoldering fire Darko Milicic did I mention Europe yet?”.

Spacer — 5 Facilitator — 5 Creator — 5 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 3

Stopper — 2 Protector — 3 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 3

2 Jaren Jackson Jr. (Sep 15, 1999) — Michigan St — 6'11" 236 lbs

Jaren Jackson taking it the length of the court.

Jaren Jackson fits the modern archetype of a desirable 5 man. Think Miami version of Chris Bosh if he hits on everything. The hope is that he could be the very rare big *cough*actual unicorn*cough* that is both a +++ rim protector and smart switchable team defender who also shoots well enough to space the floor. The evidence is all there for the rim protection and team defense. He was basically a terror on the defensive end of the court this past year. Detractors will point out his high foul rate, but to me this is a yellowish-orange flag. I chalk this up to his youth and activity level on the defensive end. The evidence is also there to suggest his shooting ability. He shot just under 80% from the free throw line (133 FTA) and just under 40% beyond the arc (96 3PA). At this point in his career he is not a dynamic ball handler or shot creator, but he showed some flashes of that ability several times this season when he put the ball on the ground and attacked closeouts, finishing at the rim with authority. With his insanely long legs, he seemingly gallops like a gazelle to the basket in 2–3 strides. If “The Big Gazelle” ever becomes a thing, remember you saw it here first.

Jaren with the crossover dribble drive and dunk.

It’s really hard to see a scenario where Jaren completely fails, even if his 3pt shot doesn’t translate. I think in time he’ll be enough of a roll threat to score that way, and if that somehow fails as well, I think he’ll still figure out other ways to score closer to the basket. For example, in post-up situations this year he shot 1.226 PPP (98th %-ile on 53 possessions) suggesting he may have some untapped ability as a post scorer. On a final note, from watching some of his interviews, I have to say I love the kid’s ebullient personality and I think it translates to his play on the court. On a final, final note, as young as he is, it wouldn’t at all surprise me if he is not quite done growing.

Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 2 Creator—3 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 5

Stopper — 4 Protector — 5 Exploder — 4 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 5

Tier 2 — All-Stars

3 Miles Bridges (Mar 21, 1998) — Michigan St — 6'7" 220 lbs

Explosive and strong athlete who might be the next evolution of the PJ Tuckers of the NBA (which admittedly is pretty much just PJ Tucker at this point). Already a good spot-up 3pt shooter with some signs of shooting off movement and pull-up. By far his biggest weakness is his just average, if not below-average, length. His handle isn’t that tight either. The hope is his combination of athleticism and strength enable him to still be fairly effective switching onto pretty much every position at times. His shooting, cutting to the basket, and evolving ball-handling will take care of him on offense. Also a willing, if not visionary, passer, so he shouldn’t ever become a black hole or ball stopper on offense. Should be pointed out that he is relatively young for a sophomore. He might be the most “Playoff-ready” player in the class. (I guess this is somewhat a moot point if he gets stuck on a bad team.)

Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 3 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 4

Stopper — 3 Protector — 4 Exploder — 4 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 4

4 Trae Young (Sep 19, 1998) — Oklahoma — 6'1" 186 lbs

One of literally dozens of showstopper passes from Trae.

Trae can shoot it. Trae can pass it. I don’t know if Trae can defend it. But did I mention that he can shoot and pass yet? I’m betting on the shooting and passing, and praying his defense doesn’t make him completely unplayable. While I admit there’s a possibility of that, his upside — again because of the shooting and passing — makes him worth a risky bet to me.

Spacer — 5 Facilitator—5 Creator—5 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 1

Stopper — 1 Protector — 1 Exploder — 2 Extender — 1 Rebounder — 1

5 DeAndre Ayton (Jul 23, 1998) — Arizona — 7'1" 250 lbs

Tim Taylor would be jealous of DeAndre Ayton’s tools. Ayton has the elite physical and athletic makeup that is catnip for NBA front offices on Draft night. There is no question Ayton has the ability to dominate virtually any player in the NBA from a physical standpoint. But ability doesn’t always translate to actual productivity, either due to mentality (does he have enough grit?) or BBIQ (does he think the game at a high enough level?). Although played out of position — perhaps unaware of this himself — virtually all season as Sean Miller started Dusan Ristic at the 5, Ayton’s rim protection (< 2 blk/g) left something to be desired. The glass half-full outlook is that he did seem to improve as a rim protector as the season progressed. Ayton’s early exiting performance vs Buffalo in the tourney didn’t inspire confidence, but at some point it’s probably smart to just bet on the tools and hope he has a long enough career to learn how to use them effectively. I don’t think he’ll live up to #1 pick hype though.

Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 4 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 5

Stopper — 3 Protector — 4 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 5

6 Michael Porter Jr. (Jun 29, 1998) — Missouri — 6'11" 211 lbs

In theory Porter is a very tall, fairly athletic dude who can shoot. He’s not nearly as athletic as Bagley, but is definitely a notch above, say, Kevin Knox. While Porter is tall, I wouldn’t say he has elite length (9'0.5" reach, 7'0.25" wingspan) — but he’s definitely long enough to spend time at either front-court position. His best position likely ends up being the 4. I think there are several players in the class who are better pure shooters than MPJ (Trae/Huerter/Shamet), but because of his height and release point he has a huge advantage getting his shot off (although to be fair some of this advantage may well be mitigated by a significant dip which likely slows his release somewhat). There are definitely some injury questions (his back kept him out for most of his Freshman year and recent reports of back spasms have forced him to cancel some workouts) and intangible concerns, not least of which are his penchant for being a ball stopper — as evidenced by his taking 17 shots in the very first game after he came back this season. But the play here is to bet on his archetype and upside despite some of the apparent red flags. If healthy, we’re looking at a median outcome probably somewhat like a better shooting version of Rudy Gay or longer and better shooting version of Harrison Barnes.

Spacer — 5 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 4 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 4

Stopper — 3 Protector — 3 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 4

7 Marvin Bagley III (Mar 14, 1999) — Duke — 6'11" 220 lbs

Bagley is a super dynamic garbage man who has lightning quick second (and third and fourth…) bounce to his game. Remember when Minnesota Kevin Love used to get a ton offensive rebounds on his own misses? Bagley is that dude in spades. There is no question he will be leading the league in that category one day. The questions revolving around Bagley are not so much whether he can get buckets and boards (he will almost certainly be one of those “double double” guys that NBA marketing departments love), but whether he will ever be able to stretch his shot to the 3pt line. As he is not much of a rim protector — despite his height he lacks elite rim protecting length — his best position defensively is most likely as a 4 or, perhaps, even a really big switch-everything big wing as suggested by Javier Pesquera on Twitter:

Despite concerns about Bagley’s true position and his defensive acumen, it’s hard to pass on a guy with his unique athletic profile for his size and endless motor (at least, on the offensive end).

Spacer — 2 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 3 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 5

Stopper — 4 Protector — 3 Exploder — 3 Extender — 4 Rebounder—5

Tier 3 — High-end Starters

8 Kevin Huerter (Aug 27, 1998) — Maryland — 6'7" 194 lbs

It’s very hard for me to watch Huerter without immediately thinking of Klay Thompson as an upside comp for him. While Huerter might benefit from raising the angle of his shot a little, the quickness of his release and overall form is about as close to Klay as you’re going to find. Of course, I’m not a shot doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. Huerter is athletic and smart enough to be a passable — if not quite switch everything — defender. While possessing just average length, his height gives him some advantage in terms of his court vision, which is above average compared to other wings in this class — 3.4 ast/g for a player with only 21% USG is impressive. Huerter projects to be more than just an spot-up shooter. He has that rare and highly sought after skill of being able to shoot off movement, even when he isn’t perfectly balanced. He also brings unusually high level of finishing ability for a shooting wing, especially being able to finish seemingly equally well with either hand (evidenced by his shooting 71% at the rim http://hoop-math.com/Maryland2018.php). While I don’t see him driving to the rim with regularity, I do envision him being able to be a serious cutting threat off the ball.

Spacer — 5 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 3 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 3

Stopper — 3 Protector — 3 Exploder — 3 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 3

9 Zhaire Smith (Jun 4, 1999) — Texas Tech — 6'4" 199 lbs

Zhaire is an instinctive player with good instincts. He’s an incredibly explosive leaper with great length (6'10" wingspan) for a wing, if not height (6'4" in shoes). As he came out of nowhere basically (#223 RSCI ranking), it is fair to be skeptical of his talent. Specifically, Zhaire’s biggest weaknesses right now are shooting and ball handling. He’s been shooting well in pre-draft workouts as evidenced below:

I am willing to bet on Zhaire becoming a good enough spot-up 3pt shooter at some point that it enables him to stay on the court. He probably needs that shot, because it’s unlikely he will ever have enough ball handling juice to create his own shots driving to the basket (although like I said earlier, I have seen some flashes — but it’s a risky bet). If Zhaire hits on the shooting and somehow significantly improves his handle, watch out. He’s a high variance prospect (similar to Trae in that way). One niggling concern for Zhaire is that he has relatively small hands (8.25" wide), which could be a hindrance to his ball control ability (watch how often he dunks with both hands, for example).

Spacer — 2 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 3 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 4

Stopper — 4 Protector — 3 Exploder — 5 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 4

10 Kevin Knox (Aug 11, 1999) — Kentucky — 6'9" 213 lbs

Knox might be one of those prospects that becomes so overrated that he’s underrated. He’s got the size to be a PF in the NBA (9' standing reach, 7' wingspan) but was played mostly as a wing or even a guard at Kentucky. Sort of like MPJ, if you see Knox more of a floor spacing 4, he starts to look much more attractive as a prospect. He’s got a great stroke with a high release that will be nearly impossible to contest most of the time. Joins MPJ and Miles as “better Harrison Barneses” in the top 10. Also note he’s one of the youngest players in the Draft. I think the package is just enough for me to put him here.

Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 3 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 3

Stopper — 2 Protector — 3 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 4

11 Wendell Carter Jr. (Apr 16, 1999) — Duke — 6'10" 250 lbs

How can I say this tactfully…there’s a ton to like about Wendell Carter Jr, but I just can’t get myself to be too excited about him. If it were a decade ago, he’d probably be a top 3 pick. There’s no question he is going to be a regular season starter — and probably a productive one. But it’s 2018 and bigs are just getting more and more mobile, it’s not clear to me teams won’t just be able to run him off the court in the playoffs. If you believe in his 3pt stroke enough, and think he’s mobile enough to hang, I can see someone being much higher on him than I am. He’s a smart player, great passer for a big, and has great length (9'1" standing reach and 7'4.5" wingspan). And I’m 100% willing to admit I could just be flat out wrong on this one. (For the record — in response to Jeremy Morris’ tweet, yes he did shoot above 40% on 3s — but on just 46 attempts. Jaren Jackson shot 39.6% on 96 attempts AND shot 80% from the free throw line.)

Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 3 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 5

Stopper — 2 Protector — 5 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 5

12 Robert Williams (Oct 17, 1997) — Texas A&M — 6'9" 237 lbs

If you could merge the positive attributes of Robert Williams and Wendell Carter you would have the perfect center. Williams is an elite athlete — not even just for his size. Physically, he probably profiles as close to Clint Capela as any big in this Draft — perhaps, going back several Drafts. Of course, we can’t Brundlefly these two prospects, so we are left with their respective downsides. Robert Williams can’t shoot. He really can’t. It’s not for lack of trying either (being forced to play out of position as a 4 all season didn’t help). Williams is 2–30 beyond the arc and 54% from the free throw line in his two seasons at A&M. But like Clint Capela, he doesn’t need to be a shooter to succeed. With his strength, length, and explosive athleticism, Williams projects to be a dynamic rim runner who just needs a great PNR player to take advantage. I also think he might have some sneaky passing upside (2.2 AST/40). On the defensive end, Williams has the physical tools to be a switch everything modern 5 and an imposing rim protector (4.1 BLK/40). I think one could make the argument that given his archetype, Williams has maybe the 2nd highest floor in this class (after Jaren, of course!). Before moving on to Bamba, I have to say I think Williams made a mistake not coming out last year. He might have been the first big off the board as a Freshman, and now looks like a late Lottery pick.

Spacer — 1 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 1 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 5

Stopper — 4 Protector — 5 Exploder — 4 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 5

13 Mo Bamba (May 12, 1998) — Texas — 7'1" 225 lbs

Needless to say, Bamba is a physical freak of nature with a 7'10" wingspan and 9'7.5" standing reach. He is seen as a potential unicorn, but I would push back against that narrative somewhat. He shot 68% from the free throw line, which is not usually a good signal for a 3pt shooter, and he shot 27.5% beyond the arc on 51 attempts. Yes, that’s a small sample size, but the point is other than the fact that it looks cool that such a huge human being tries to hit 3s (Hello Manute Bol), I’m not sure that the enthusiasm for his unicorn-ness is really grounded in reality (because I want our unicorns to be real YO!). There are some videos going around of his improved 3pt stroke after working out a few days with Drew Hanlen, so there’s a chance that’s a thing. If he does become a good enough 3pt shooting threat, it will definitely make him a much more intriguing player on the offensive end. If he doesn’t become a shooter, you have to hope he becomes a PNR threat which is within the realm of possibility for him. He isn’t explosive like a Robert Williams, but his length probably makes up for that in spades. Bamba projects to have near-zero facilitator value (0.7 AST/40), which is something I am concerned with, as far as being a cog in an efficient offense in the post-season. On the defensive end, Bamba will be an elite rim protector on Day 1 of his NBA career. There are some strength issues that could affect his ability to hold position in the paint, but it’s hard to see more than a handful of NBA centers taking advantage of him physically, especially as teams go even further away from posting up their bigs regularly. Bamba isn’t really a plus athlete, but his length is so astounding it will likely give him more room for error on the perimeter (compared to WCJ, for example). But even there, it’s not clear how switchable Bamba projects. It could be an issue for him in the Playoffs as well. One final thing to note is that he’s a 20-year old Freshman, which is a small tick against him.