Victory for Ukraine against the Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions is coming soon, as exuberant government and military spokesman have been proudly saying. Ukrainian forces operating as part of the Anti-Terrorism Operation (ATO) have rolled up separatist positions around the region, with the territory under the control of the separatists “now two-and-a-half times smaller than it was four weeks ago,” according to Defense Minister Valeriy Heletey.

The situation in East Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian Government.

The city of Luhansk is almost surrounded, and the area around Donetsk has reportedly been completely cut off from the rest of the separatist territories and the supply routes from the Russian border. Luhansk has always been secondary in important to Donetsk, and not just because of its smaller population. Donetsk is one of Ukraine’s largest cities, and has been the heart of the pro-Russian movement that took up arms against the government in Kiev over four months ago. Separatist forces have been flooding into the city ever since the surprisingly quick fall of Sloviansk, including Igor Strelkov, commander of the separatist militants and Public Enemy Number One for the Ukrainian government. Pavel Gubarev, the “People’s Governor” of Donetsk, declared that they make the city into a new Stalingrad for the approaching government forces.

Igor Strelkov in Donetsk. (Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters )

Luhansk can fall without being a mortal blow to the separatists, but the same cannot be said for Donetsk. The city is the beating heart of the separatist movement, and everyone knows that its fall would signal the coming collapse of the separatists. When Strelkov declared that Donetsk was in a “state of siege,” he meant it.

Ukrainian forces are hoping to make Donetsk into the Waterloo of the separatists, one last great victory before they chase away the last remnants of resistance and bring the East of the country back into government hands for the first time since the days after the flight of Victor Yanukovych. Strelkov, Gubarev, and the other separatist leaders are hoping to make Donetsk into their own Saratoga, a great victory that will turn the tide and bring open support from Russia.

Donetsk and its surrounding suburban areas is home to over two million people, and their situation becomes more desperate by the day as the battle lines draw closer. Basic supplies are beginning to run low, and water and electricity have been cut in many areas. Ukrainian and separatist forces have been trading artillery barrages and rocket salvos in heavily populated areas.

New Grozny

The battle for Donetsk is shaping up to be nothing short of a humanitarian disaster. Ukrainian forces are determined to crush this last great bastion of the separatists, who are just as determined to hold out. Caught in between are the citizens of the Donetsk metropolitan area. Many have tried to flee, to both Russia and other areas of Ukraine, but many more have no better option than to stay put and huddle together in whatever cover can be found. Military age men are being conscripted into the separatist ranks following a mobilization order issued by Strelkov that ordered all men of age to report for duty, and those left are facing an increasingly dangerous struggle for basic supplies.

Pro-Russian Separatists parade on armored vehicles in Donetsk for Airborne Forces’ Day. (Dmitry Lovetsky/Associate Press)

Although separatist forces in Donetsk probably number less than 20,000, they have had significant time to fortify their positions in the city. Most importantly, though, is that they are well-armed. Columns of armored vehicles, supplies, and reinforcements have streamed into the city from other separatist-held territories and from Russia itself. BMP and BTR armored personnel carriers, self-propelled and towed artillery, anti-aircraft guns, T-72 tanks, and large amounts of small arms and man portable anti-tank and anti-air weapons delivered to the city have given its defenders the ability to match the best the Ukrainian military can throw against them. Donetsk may become for Ukraine what Grozny was for Russia, if the Poroshenko government is not careful.

Grozny in 2003 was labeled by the United Nations as “the most destroyed city on Earth,” and for good reason. The battles for Grozny in the mid-90s and again in 2000 were arguably the most brutal examples of urban combat since the Battle of Berlin in 1945. Though the campaign to take the city went fairly well in 2000, the back and forth melees for control of the city from 1994-1996 were a poorly organized, poorly-led, and even more poorly executed fiasco that quickly became a nightmare for the Russian military.

Then-Defense Minister Pavel Grachev, who was a symbol of the endemic corruption and profiteering in years immediately following the fall of the Soviet Union, had boasted that Grozny could be taken easily. All he needed was a few hours and some airborne units. The blood sport that followed swallowed Russian units, stocked with ill-trained and equipped conscripts, by the regiment.

Grozny during the First Chechen War (Jeremy Nicholl)

In one attack on New Year’s Eve, the Russians sent 120 tanks, dozens of other armored vehicles, and thousands of men from the 131st Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 81st Rifle Regiment. Both were wiped out, with entire battalions worth of men being killed; less than a dozen of the 120 tanks sent in made it back out. That was only in the first days of the battle. Grozny was leveled by carpet bombing, artillery barrages, and tank fire.

It was sheer, bloody madness. In 1996, just when it seemed like the Russians were going to win the war, Chechen forces swept back into the city and obliterated the garrison. Units in the area, themselves under a ferocious attack, could only sit impotently in horror as they listened to the agonized cries for help from friendly units left in the city. Listen as, one by one, those radio channels went quiet. Russia was forced to accept a humiliating peace, and Putin’s campaign in 2000 and installation of the Kadyrovs as rulers of Chechnya has still failed to quiet the restive North Caucuses.

Donetsk and the Future of Ukraine

That is a scenario that Ukraine could face if it rolls into Donetsk in the same type of armored columns Russia went into Grozny with. Any serious battle in the city is likely to be extraordinarily costly for both government and separatist forces, but even more so for the civilians trapped there. The Battle of Donetsk could turn into a national nightmare for Ukraine, an event that haunts their collective conscience for generations to come.

Ukrainian tanks on the move in the Donetsk region. ( Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images)

Ukraine doesn’t have the money to pay for an extensive rebuilding program should Donetsk take significant damage. The city will sit in stagnation, the hollowed out buildings and charred neighborhoods a daily reminder of the battle.

The real damage, though, will be to the people. Maybe Ukrainians in Lviv or Kiev will be able to move on after the end of the war, but they didn’t have the battle lines roll across their doorstep. Like in the southern states after the American Civil War, the tensions will simmer. The narrative of the war will be different for them. The regional and ethnic rivalries will persist.

An Invitation for Vladimir Putin

A battle for Donetsk is just what President Putin wants.

Russian forces have been massing again on the border with Ukraine, with NATO Supreme Commander Philip Breedlove estimating that there were “well over 12,000” troops in staging areas within miles of Ukrainian territory. Armored units and ground attack helicopters have been performing live-fire exercises, and Russian aircraft have penetrated Ukrainian airspace a number of times in recent days. Grad missile launchers and other artillery units have also dug in along the border, with the United States and Ukraine accusing Russia of having them fire on Ukrainian positions across the border.

As Christopher Miller notes, “satellite imagery and amateur videos suggest that Russia’s military is within a mere hour’s journey to Ukraine’s embattled Luhansk and Donetsk regions.” Perhaps more troubling, though, is the news that the Russian Defense Ministry has called up reservists across the country for training that would ostensibly last into October.

A separatist mans a checkpoint outside of Donetsk (Igor Kovalenko)

All of this comes after repeated calls by Putin and representatives of the Russian government for the establishment of peacekeeping forces and humanitarian corridors in East Ukraine. Putin has also spoken a number of times about protecting the rights and lives of ethnic Russians in the region.

Putin has rattled the saber before, but this time it’s different. Ukraine is clearly winning and gaining momentum while pro-Russian forces are collapsing back on a few strongpoints. Russian artillery is being shown to be firing across the border, and all the while more and more Russian equipment and men are flowing into Ukraine. Far from backing down after the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, Putin has in fact doubled-down on his support for the separatists. The embarrassing case of Russian soldiers taking photographs from over and near the Ukrainian border have hindered the hopes of Putin’s government to create a “little green men” effect like they did in Crimea, where unidentified men in Russian military gear fanned out across the region and snatched it away from Ukraine before they could even react.

Political and battlefield setbacks may coerce Putin into acting more overtly. A bloody battle for, and humanitarian crisis in, Donetsk would provide a pretext for that overt action, meaning an invasion under the guise of a peacekeeping or humanitarian relief expedition.

It is almost six years to the day that Russia invaded Georgia. In that conflict, Georgian successes against separatists in South Ossetia prompted Russia to intervene to save them, putting Georgian forces to flight. Seeing the separatists he has invested so much money, materiel, and effort into faltering, Putin may see that he has no other choice than to invade and rescue them. Whether that leads to outright annexation, or a South Ossetia or Transdnistria-like semi-independence, for Putin it may be better than watching his Ukrainian (and their NATO friends) be able to declare victory.

Garrett Khoury, a graduate of the George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs and an MA Candidate at Tel Aviv University, is the Director of Research and Content for The Eastern Project. Garrett has previously worked with The Israel Project in Jerusalem and The American Task Force on the Western Sahara in Washington, DC.

(Title Photo: Ukrainian artillery in action in Luhansk region. Credit: Voice of America)