A Scottish independence referendum poll by YouGov has the no lead down to six points from more than 20 in early August. Is it game on in Scotland?

Scottish independence: four reasons why the narrowing gap is significant

A poll released on monday evening by YouGov shows the no (to independence) lead “collapsing” to only six points. In early August the same polling company, which has consistently shown among the widest no lead, put the gap at over 20 points.

The no lead in YouGov polls has dropped from over 20 points in early August to today’s six. Image: YouGov Photograph: YouGov

It’s only one poll, but the figures are significant for at least four reasons:

1) This is the second poll released since the second debate. The other poll, carried out by Survation, also showed a six point gap. While subsamples around age are small, the yes vote is outperforming no among all, but older voters (who are though of course more likely to vote). This from YouGov’s tables:



Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) Yes vote ahead among all but older voters in latest YouGov Scotland #IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/x2Ae5NdMYg

2) The yes campaign’s strategy to focus on the NHS seems to be working. Only 9% think the NHS will get better with a no vote.



Only 9% think the NHS would get better if a no vote wins in September’s referendum. Photograph: YouGov

3) The YouGov poll points to important shifts to yes among women, Labour supporters and undecided voters:

The Times of London (@thetimes) Scotland is within touching distance of independence, a poll in The Times reveals #indyref http://t.co/hkTkzJigEN pic.twitter.com/cbhFjbEZGX

Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) YouGov/Times IndyRef poll finds undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1.

4) The gap across all recent polls shows a narrowing picture:

Recent Scottish Independence polls show similar trends, the NO lead is narrowing. Photograph: The Guardian

These considerations aside, it remains one poll. The average of polls, despite differences among polling companies, and movements between the two camps, has thus far consistently shown a no lead.

The latest figures by Prof. John Curtis, excluding don’t knows, now place the no lead at 10 points.

Scotland #IndyRef Poll of Polls. Image: What Scotland Thinks Photograph: What Scotland Thinks

A further element of uncertainty is given by turnout estimates - most polls place “certainty to vote” at around 80%. Varying between 70-90% across age groups. If the gap between yes and no continues to narrow, a key factor to watch out for on election day will be any difference between turnout on the day and current estimates of intention to vote.

For now it’s worth waiting to see if polls by other companies, which haven’t released data in a while, also show a narrowing gap before being able to say if it’s truly game on in Scotland.

