By Kevin Murphy

Some people either aren’t very good at fantasy football or aren’t very experienced at it. I’ve written a piece for their benefit here: https://westcoastbias.home.blog/2019/08/24/2019-fantasy-football-beginners-guide/ . This is for the experienced players who want to talk about advanced strategies and win their league yet again. In the words of an American genius, “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” I’m going to break down some terminology, strategies, general tips, and then every NFL team one-by-one. Let’s get into it.

Terminology

0 RB – this is a draft strategy where you eschew traditional fantasy wisdom and go everywhere besides RB with your first 5-6 picks

Risk tolerance – it’s pretty self-explanatory guys. How much risk can you put up with?

Streaming – No, this does not refer to how I pirate RedZone (thank god for r/nflstreams). This is the strategy where you play a new defense every week after you pick them up from waivers. Every year there’s a really awful offense in the NFL, and you can generally count on the fantasy defense playing against them to put up around 15 points. Streaming defenses typically nets you the points of a FLEX if done properly.

ADP – Average Draft Position. Where players are consistently mocked/projected by experts

General Tips

Don’t overthink yourself for trades. Think one trade at a time. Many times people plan several trades in advance or try to come up with trades with players they don’t have yet, and their team ends up worse

If you’re playing for money, make it so everyone has to pay before they can draft.

If you have a punishment for the league loser (highly recommended) make sure that it’s agreed upon by everyone, or at least the rules of how it’s chosen are agreed upon by everyone before the draft. Personally, I think the best way is to have the league winner pick the punishment, but pre-agreed ones work too. If it’s agreed on before the draft, that makes it less likely the league loser can weasel their way out of it come December.

Don’t have the fantasy playoffs in Week 17, or 16 if you can avoid it. Too many injuries and teams either out of the hunt and tanking for draft picks or teams that have secured a bye/set playoff spot and are resting their starters.

Speaking of trades, make sure every trade objectively leaves your team at least as good as it was pre-trade. This may seem simple but sometimes it’s very tempting to trade for a player on the rise and overall you lose points

This is about total points. I’ll touch on this in the draft section but you win fantasy games by having more total points than your opponent, not by having more positions “win” than theirs

Depth is great but ceiling is better. I’ve had teams in the past where I’ve had 4-5 guys I felt comfortable playing in the FLEX. That’s great, but it also made my choices a lot harder, and I tended to overthink who to start. Later in the draft you will frequently be faced with proven depth or unproven potential. Sure, one extra proven guy in case of injury is great, but breakout value is what wins leagues.

Start your studs. Regardless of matchup, if you have a top 10-20 player, play them.

Save your waiver wire pick-ups. Don’t waste your waiver priority on a guy who’s going to be a better fill-in for your RB4, save that leverage for either a huge breakout star or if/when one of your players gets hurt.

There’s a certain phrase that some young guys in my age demographic tend to use when describing a trade they believe they strongly won. If you haven’t heard of it, don’t worry about it, but if you know the phrase I’m talking about, stop using it. It’s simply way too aggressive and there might even be a person in your league or two who have been the victims of the act that phrase describes. There are 1000 equally aggressive, but more creative terms out there that you can use that don’t harm others.

If you’re unsure about the health or starting a player on Thursday Night Football, bench them. It’s always better to have an extra three days of roster flexibility.

Don’t start TNF players in your FLEX. Again, roster flexibility. If you start a TNF guy in your flex but one of your starting RBs goes down, you then have to play a bad RB instead of a potentially better WR/TE in your FLEX.

Don’t play 2 QB leagues, points-per-completion leagues or leagues that reward players for going over 100 yards or anything like that. If you’re the commissioner of one of these leagues and set these rules, what is wrong with you?

Drafting

If you’re in the target demographic for the piece i.e. you know fantasy football, then you know that draft strategies vary from person to person and the best ones are flexible so as to adapt to randomized draft orders and people making dumb picks in front of you. I cannot tell you a best draft strategy as there is no objectively best draft strategy. I can, however, try to inform your opinions a little better so that you can have the best draft possible.

0 RB is a very enticing strategy this year, particularly in 0.5 or full PPR leagues. The high end WR and TE options are limited this year, and there’s a wealth of serviceable RBs Additionally, lots of highly drafted RBs have questions of their own so it’s not like they’re some foolproof investment Between the rookie RBs, some of the potential trades that could happen between now and the deadline, and some of the promising handcuff/RBBC value this season, there is a TON of potential starting talent in the mid-late rounds

Total points win games It doesn’t matter if all of your WRs and TE score 3 more points than theirs if their RB2 scored 15 more than yours. Keep this in mind when drafting QBs or TEs highly. Will drafting a Mahomes or an Ertz net you more total points than the guy picking a stud RB or WR at that same spot

Draft to your risk tolerance. If you can’t stand the thought of having a team of high-ceiling, low-floor players, draft more consistent ones. Don’t let every news update about Todd Gurley’s knee scare you. There’s nothing worse than regretting a draft because you drafted outside of your own risk tolerance.

There’s really no such thing as a reach These expert rankings are consensus based on preseason info and hunches they have. Depending on how well-read into fantasy you are, they literally might not have any more information than you. Fantasy value depends on volume, the offensive lines, offensive coordinators, and team’s defensive ability. That’s too many variables for even the experts to hit on consistently. Lots of people probably “reached” on Pat Mahomes or James Conner last season and ended up winning their leagues. I didn’t “reach” on Kenyan Drake and Derrick Henry as my RB2 and flex last year according to experts, and I felt like I did reach on Alvin Kamara at 6. Expert opinions don’t mean squat ALL THAT said, don’t pick a defense too early

Even if you don’t subscribe to the “streaming defense” theory, don’t draft one too high. The previous years’ defense is very rarely the top scoring D the following year. The Bears D will be nice to have, but don’t expect them to replicate their scoring. Teams with great defenses tend to do well in real-life standings, meaning they have to face harder teams the following year. The Texans, for instance, have a great defense but play the NFC South this year and every AFC divisional champion. That means that Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, and Pat Mahomes are on the schedule. Not a good look

Volume trumps efficiency. More touches will always be worth more. Receivers with more targets will have a higher ceiling, as will RBs with more carries.

Pay attention to hold outs, injuries, suspensions, and trade rumors. Duke Johnson and Melvin Gordon have had wildly fluctuating fantasy values over the past month for just this reason.

With all of that said, let’s get into a breakdown of every division in (fantasy) football. I’ll be breaking each division down, team-by-team, into the Highest-value players, sleepers, guys to avoid, and any general notes about team developments in the off and preseason.

The Breakdown

Highest-value players: These are the players I believe can win you your league. Some of them will be guys in the top few rounds, many will be players who should be available later. To be clear, I am not saying these players will necessarily even score more points than players in other sections. What I am saying is that in my opinion, these guys have the highest value at where they’re being drafted to maximize your chances of winning. Mahomes, Conner, and Lindsay won a lot of people their leagues last season. This was because they put up an absurd amount of points, especially in relation to where they were drafted. Value wins leagues.

Sleepers: Not every team has player(s) that are such incredible value they’ll win your league. That’s where the regular ol sleepers come in. I will include some deep sleepers but many of these players are essentially guys I think will outperform their draft stock. This will, then, include some fantasy stars and well-known names. If a guy is here, that just means I think he is at least a slightly better value than his ADP.

Overrated: These players aren’t bad or guys to absolutely-not have on your team, it’s just in my personal opinion they aren’t poised to perform as well as expected this season. Knowing how often preseason fantasy takes are wrong, this will likely be laughable in a month or two. I am not saying these are not rosterable or startable players, just that I think there is better value elsewhere.

As a final note, even if you completely agree with my assessments of value, you have to draft players. Don’t overthink it. If I said that a top-10 pick is overrated and you’re picking at number 9, just take the guy! Remember, there’s really no such thing as a reach.

The AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

Highest-value players: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce

Sleepers: Tyreek Hill

Overrated: Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman

General notes: This is a lot of personal opinion coming in here, so take it as you will (just also note that “experts” presenting their opinion as fact just disguises it’s still their opinion.) I really, really doubt the talent of Williams. I think he will be overdrafted based on his situation. He is not Kareem Hunt. He will have high volume and his surrounding situation is incredible, and he’s almost certainly a high-end RB2. Buuuuuut, I think he’ll be overdrafted. Hill is the opposite, where he might be underdrafted simply because he’s a walking, fast-running piece of human excrement. Trust me, I get it. There is the genuine worry of a suspension, but Goodell cares too much about money for that to happen now. He wants Mahomes to have his weapons. All that said, Hardman is a rookie WR from a weak class that’s at best the 4th receiving option. He’s a waiver wire guy in event of an injury or suspension. Mahomes and Kelce are simply so talented that if you get them in the 2nd and 3rd rounds your team will be able to take the hit in points at other positions.

San Diego Los Angeles Chargers

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler

Gordon’s situation is too unknown, and even a trade still wouldn’t bring his value to his projected ADP

Overrated: Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry

General notes: Keenan Allen is very good but not “win your league” good so that’s why he’s not a Highest-value. I fully expect these guys to outperform their draft position. Philip Rivers will probably finish about as he’s expected (around QB5 or so) because people are finally realizing how good he’s been his whole career, so he’s correctly rated. Melvin Gordon’s situation isn’t so bad that I don’t think he’s not a RB1 or anything, but I am getting shades of Leveon Bell and wouldn’t feel comfortable spending a first round pick on him. He very well might get traded though, so his value will be dependent on that. Let’s not forget last year was his first truly good fantasy season. Speaking of good fantasy seasons, Hunter Henry has never had one. He is the David Wilson of TE’s, a guy whose talent is clear and whose breakout year is always just on the horizon, and then he gets injured. I don’t see enough targets between Allen, Williams, Ekeler, maybe Gordon, and Henry to justify how ludicrously high I’ve seen Henry being drafted. If you’ve ever had Tyler Eiffert, you will know how frustrating owning Henry will be.

Denver Broncos

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos D

Overrated: Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman

General notes: I am a Phillip Lindsay believer. I don’t think Royce Freeman will eat into his carries as much as we’ve been led to expect. I am NOT a Courtland Sutton believer, at least in fantasy terms. In Madden 20 he’s bae. I think people are forgetting how good Sanders is, particularly with a guy who can launch the ball like Flacco. The new HC is Vic Fangio and that Broncos D is going to be terrifying again. I think Noah Fant will be a fantasy stud in a year or two, but don’t ever draft rookie TE’s.

Las Vegas Oakland Raiders

Highest-value players: Antonio Brown

Sleepers:

Overrated:

General notes: Whoever ends up being the starting receiving TE will likely carve themselves out a nice waiver/backup TE niche, but outside of AB I feel most Raiders players are rated correctly. Carr will be a backup QB with QB1 ceiling in deep leagues, Tyrell Williams is a deep-league FLEX level guy, and Josh Jacobs is an intriguing rookie RB with unknown upside and probably RB2 floor across all scoring systems.

The NFC West

St. Louis Los Angeles Rams

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Todd Gurley, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp

Overrated: Darrell Henderson, Rams D/ST

General notes: Nickell Robey-Coleman and those refs can go soak their heads as far as I’m concerned. Way to not only miss an obvious call and deprive us of a Brady-Brees Super Bowl but also MAKE PI CHALLENGABLE because that will definitely speed the game up! Anyways, I think Henderson is extremely overrated as a handcuff. For all we know, Malcom Brown could win the RB2 job down the stretch, and I’m a huge fan of Gurley’s fantasy value this season. Yes, the knee is concerning. Picking Gurley almost entirely depends on your risk tolerance. If he’s healthy, he will be a league-winning guy. The arthritis is such a concern I didn’t slot him in the Highest-value category for good reason, though. Goff is underrated in fantast terms, as is Kupp. Cooks and Woods seem to be correctly valued but Kupp when healthy is a great FLEX/WR2-3 option. If you draft RB early, look for Kupp as a great late-round value. The Rams have a pretty tough schedule this season and Donald is a beast but I don’t think replacing Lamarcus Joyner with 1000-year-old Eric Weddle is going to help matters. Clay Matthews isn’t what he used to be but went from being so overrated to being underrated, so now, much like him, that’s a wash.

Seattle Seahawks

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett

Overrated: Rashaad Penny

General notes: Not much to say here, fantasy-wise. I think Carson will continue to get the lion’s share of the carries in a run heavy offense, and I don’t think Penny will eat into them that much. Lockett is Wilson’s number one option now and is always a threat to take one to the house, and with the departure of Earl Thomas and Frank Clark, I don’t think their defense will keep them out of many shootouts. Wilson should be a solid QB1 option.

The Santa Clara George Kittles are a team to watch this season

San Francisco 49ers

Highest-value players: George Kittle

Sleepers: Tevin Coleman, 49ers D/ST

Overrated: Dante Pettis, Matt Breida

General notes: Kittle put up WR1 numbers last season with Nick Mullens throwing to him most of the year. Even outside of his value as one of the few elite TE options, he simply gets points. Don’t let your drafting strategy make you miss out on the points he’ll get. I think Coleman is a “sneaky” (god fantasy analysts use that word too much, I’m sorry) RB2/FLEX option this season, particularly in 0.5/PPR leagues. Unfortunately Shanahan has about 500 solid running backs that can all do the things he wants them to, and this is as big a RBBC as I’ve seen. I do think talent will win out and Coleman will get a solid 10-15 touches a game though. I don’t understand the Dante Pettis hype at all. I get that he had some momentum in the last few games of the season, but that’s because teams had no clue who he was and the 9ers weren’t exactly a juggernaut. I’ve seen him getting drafted as a WR2 and I would personally not be happy with my draft if it came to that. This might end up being my most erroneous take in here though, as all of the experts seem to be in love with the guy.

Arizona Cardinals

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Larry Fitzgerald

Overrated: David Johnson, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk

General notes: Before you get out your pitchforks, please know I genuinely do like all of the players in the overrated section. It hurts me to slander DJ like that. But the fact is that their O-line really hasn’t gotten that much better. Marcus Gilbert has bounced to-and-from the IR so much that it gave him whiplash and sidelined him again. J.R. Sweezy is fine. Kliff Kingsbury is their new, unproven HC and OC. He wasn’t exactly an incredible college coach. Sure, Kyler is “his guy” but these are NFL defenses. Aaron Donald is going to snap him in half Bane-style, and even if he doesn’t get injured in a division with stellar pass rushes and a not-stellar OL, rookie QBs typically aren’t fantasy studs. He’s going to add value with his legs and DJ is going to be fine in 0.5/PPR leagues, but I just think they’re going too high. All of these team reasons are why I think Kirk is overrated. He has the talent and this could very well be his breakout year, but I don’t think his value in a draft is great. Old Man Fitzgerald on the other hand is a super safe WR4 option that will be drafted very low if at all, and if there aren’t any high-upside guys in your draft then he’s definitely worth a look to fill in your roster.

The AFC South

Houston Texans

Highest-value players: Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson

Sleepers: Duke Johnson, Kai’mi Fairbairn

Overrated: Texans D/ST

General notes: Lamar Miller is out for the year. The Texans are reportedly going to trade Clowney, hopefully for a franchise LT but there have been reports throwing the names Melvin Gordon and Rashaad Penny around. Gordon would have some value as he would presumably stop holding out, Penny would likely be a mid-tier RB2. If no RB is traded to the Texans, keep an eye on the UDFA rookies. Johnson doesn’t have the bulk/durability to be an every-down RB, so Crockett or Higdon could emerge as nice FLEX options. Anyways, the 8 games Fuller is healthy he’ll likely average 6/90/1.5 and be an elite WR2/borderline WR1 option. When he’s been healthy in conjunction with Watson, the Texans’ offense has been absolutely humming down fields. Fuller’s injury history makes him a bit of a risk for long term starter viability, but it’s also what drives his ADP down and his value up. Watson doesn’t have a good OL, but anything is better than what he had last season, and last season with a healthy Fuller the Texans averaged over 30 PPG.

Oh Captain, my Captain! Luck and the parody twitter account that followed him will be missed

Indianapolis Colts

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Marlon Mack, Jacoby Brissett

Overrated: TY Hilton, Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle, Nyheim Hines

General notes: There’s too much to unpack here so I’ll just say that Mack is generally a top-2 round pick, but he’ll be facing loaded boxes without Luck and he’s certainly not an Adrian Peterson who can flourish in spite of that. However, volume is key and he will almost certainly be getting more of that. TY is a baller so he’s still likely a mid-high end WR2, but Luck leaving hurts this receiving corps a lot. Alternatively, if their value drops very low they could be bargain deals. They might very well be just that, but as of now add on at least a round to their pre-Luck projections.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Dede Westbrook (0.5 or full PPR)

Overrated:

General notes: Big Dick Nick is slinging the rock in Jacksonville and while their OL isn’t actually awful anymore, the guy is going from a top 3 OL and top 2 receiving corps in Philly to an average OL and bottom 1 receiving corps in Jacksonville. If Leonard Fournette stays healthy he can prove he’s not a fantasy bust (despite looking like an actual one) but those odds aren’t looking bright. Look at Fournette as a mid RB2 with low RB1 potential and a bench floor. Additionally, the OC of last year’s Vikings is now with the Jags, and he almost singlehandedly ruined Dalvin Cook’s fantasy value. The guy can’t stick with the run game.

Tennessee Titans

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Dion Lewis (0.5/PPR)

Overrated: Derrick Henry

General notes: Delanie Walker’s first name is Hubert. If he’s healthy he’ll quietly be a TE steal just like he always has. Their defense could be really good this year so keep an eye on them as a last-round pick or waiver/streaming option. Henry will probably do fine this year, especially in standard scoring, but I think current ADP for him is too high. Lewis is a great pass-catching back so he’ll be a good steal in PPR leagues, and with the AFCS as wide-open as it now is, the Titans could easily be a surprise team, which will benefit their guys’ stats. Corey Davis is an okay if uninspiring WR2 with an elite-WR2 ceiling.

The NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Highest-value players: Michael Thomas

Sleepers: Latavius Murray

Overrated: Jared Cook

General notes: Jacquizz Rodgers (aka JIZZROD) is now in NOLA. I think that if something happens to Kamara, Jizzrod will really burst onto the scene and take the load off of the back of Murray. Greatest nickname in sports aside, I understand that in the past Sean Payton has shared the carries for his running backs. That was for Mark Ingram, who I truly do think he disliked (he signed Mike Gillislee and Adrian Peterson when they had Ingram and Kamara, seemingly to have another power back if Kamara would go down. I’m not even memeing, I think Ingram had bad blood with Payton.) But Kamara is so talented that giving Murray too many meaningful touches would be detrimental to the team. Michael Thomas is just an absolute animal and if you’re in any kind of PPR format he’ll probably be in the top scorers. Jared Cook is very talented, and Drew Brees has kinda sorta made a talented receiving tight-end fantasy relevant in the past. But Josh Hill is still in the dome, and Brees has an X receiver in Thomas that he didn’t have when Jimmy Graham was there. Marques Colston was awesome but he’s not a record-setting young talent like Thomas is. Between Thomas, Kamara, Hill, and whatever 8th string WR Brees and Payton decide to turn into a 1-day fantasy stud, I don’t see enough targets for Cook to justify him being the 4th or 5th TE.

Carolina Panthers

Highest-value players: Christian McCaffery

Sleepers: Cam Newton, Greg Olsen

Overrated:

General notes: McCaffery is incredible and I might consider taking him over Barkley in 0.5/PPR leagues. He is such a threat in the receiving game that even if the run game is being stifled he’ll get points. Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are fantasy studs when healthy, and I think Olsen’s recent health history has people spooked to the point he’s underrated. Olsen seems to be especially underrated in PPR formats, and in a year starving for TE options he will be an amazing value if he stays healthy. Also, it’s an odd-numbered year, so the Panthers are poised to do well. DJ Moore will put up solid numbers, he’s Cam’s number 2 target at worst.

Atlanta Falcons

Highest-value players: Devonta Freeman

Sleepers: Matt Ryan

Overrated:

General notes: Hot take alert! I realized that I’ve just been listing off the top 20 players in the Highest-value section, so here’s a reach with a guy who’s still a 3rd rounder at worst! I do think Freeman will win some people their leagues this season if he stays healthy. Ito Smith is overrated as a handcuff, I don’t think he’s talented enough to take a lot of volume from Freeman. The Falcons just drafted two OL in the first round, and even assuming only one of them turns out above-average, that’s good news for Freeman. Tevin Coleman is gone, and Ito Smith is not going to replace those stolen carries. Assuming their entire defense doesn’t explode again this season, they’ll be in closer games and able to run the ball more. Matt Ryan is consistently a fantasy god but because he’s about as exciting as a dentist’s waiting room gets underrated. The guy has one of, if not the best receiving corps in the game. He’s a Hall of Fame talent, in my opinion. He’s a high-ceiling, high-floor option, who rarely has a game that’s disappointing to fantasy fans. Julio is obviously a stud, you didn’t need me to tell you that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Highest-value players:

Sleepers:

Overrated: Jameis Winston, OJ Howard, Chris Godwin

“All he has to do is make at least 3 players have simultaneous breakout seasons! It’ll be easy in his first year with the team!”

General notes: The reason I used a picture of Bruce Arians is because all of the hype for Tampa Bay’s fantasy players rests on his shoulders. Everyone thinks that this is the year Jameis becomes the QB he was drafted to be, that Godwin becomes an elite second option to Mike Evans, and that OJ Howard becomes the thiccer, faster version of Vernon Davis he was projected to become before the NFL Draft. There are too many variables here for me to trust that. Mike Evans will still be a fantasy stud. But for all of the hype surrounding TB to work this season, not only does a new HC have to work out, but he has to transform a mediocre QB at the same time as two player breakouts happen, all while in the hardest division in football. I’m not buying it. Until proven otherwise, Winston is what he is. Godwin’s likely volume will probably make him a WR2 but I don’t think his ceiling is nearly as high as is the consensus. Their running backs suck but whichever one gets the most carries can be an emergency FLEX option.

The AFC East

New England Patriots

Highest-value players: Josh Gordon

Sleepers: James White (0.5/PPR), Gronk (monitor the news)

Overrated: Demaryius Thomas, N’Keal Harry

General notes: Center David Andrews went down, but Dante Scarnechia (sp?) is the best OL coach of all time, so his replacement will likely be a Pro-Bowler in no time. Gordon has a ridiculously high ceiling and low floor. Given his history, he could literally be suspended any week. There’s no guarantee that he can or will return to his record-setting level. But winning your league is about finding value, and he’s Tom Brady’s number 1 WR in a post-Gronk world. Edelman will get his catches and is probably going to be a good-great FLEX/WR2 in PPR leagues, but if you draft Gordon you can not only enjoy the memes but legitimately have the hope of getting a 15-20 point performance from him for a guy going anywhere from the 5th-8th rounds. Demaryius Thomas is unfortunately pretty washed up, and N’Keal Harry is a rookie trying to learn the Patriots complicated system. If you’re going with a 0 RB approach Sony Michel could be a very enticing RB1. There are reportedly rumblings, as there are with likely any action Gronk does, that the big man might return to football. Don’t waste a draft pick on these rumors. It’s still technically the NFL offseason which means news outlets are desperate for clicks. But at a minimum, it’s an intriguing storyline to keep an eye on for that waiver priority you’re saving.

The bane of the NFL and fantasy players everywhere

The Patriots have so broken the AFCE that I’m going to change up the next bit just a tad.

The Rest of the AFC East

Highest-value players: Robby Anderson

Sleepers: Lesean McCoy

Overrated: Le’Veon Bell, Kenyan Drake

General notes: Is Robby Anderson elite, very good, or even a WR1? No. Again, this is about value. He’s the number 1 target and in 0.5/PPR leagues will almost certainly have a surprisingly nice finish in rankings. Shady is a sleeper in that I believe the Buffalo offense will be much improved, given their OL additions and WR help for Josh Allen, that they will be able to have a more balanced game plan and run the ball more. McCoy still has gas in the tank, and I believe is being undervalued. Unfortunately, Frank Gore is now in Buffalo and will seemingly be accruing 800 total yards until the end of time, so between those two the AARP RBBC approach in Buffalo might be frustrating at times. Think of Shady as a RB3-4 with a FLEX ceiling. Bell is likely going to finish as a top 10 back. I have seen him talked about more as the number 5-7 back, however, and not in the 10-15 range I’m worried he could end up in. The guy is insanely talented and well-rested. Unfortunately, he’s also a year out from playing football, doesn’t have the elite Steelers OL in front of him, and has the aforementioned Anderson and… Quincy Enunwa to take the pressure off the running game instead of Antonio Brown and JuJu. He downgraded at HC too. It is intriguing that the Jets coaxed Ryan Kalil out of retirement, but there’s a lot of risk with Bell that I think some people are ignoring. Kenyan Drake is on a rebuilding team that might decide they want to see what they have in Kalen Ballage. Fortunately, that all means that he might get traded. There are rumors of the Dolphins and Texans talking strongly about a Clowney trade, and while as a Texans fan I would be furious if we didn’t get Laremy Tunsil out of that, as a fantasy player getting Drake on the Texans would likely vault him to RB2 status.

The NFC East

Dallas Penischuggers Cowboys

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Cowboys D/ST

Zeke has done pretty well considering he was born on the planet of Endor

Overrated: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard

General notes: Dak is overrated by Cowboys fans and fantasy analysts alike. I really don’t even think he’s worth a roster spot as a backup QB. If your starting QB has a bye and Dak has a juicy matchup off the waivers, go for it. Zeke’s holdout doesn’t concern me, and I believe Travis Frederick is coming back this season after a health scare last year, so that bodes very well for Zeke’s fantasy prospects. Snag Pollard as a handcuff/week 1-3 starter, but given how close Zeke and the Cowboys have been, and how much they’re reportedly offering him, I believe his holdout shouldn’t go for longer than week 3. Amari Cooper will be an elite WR2/mid-low WR1 (especially in PPR formats) and Randall Cobb has some PPR value or WR4 value in deeper leagues now that he’s taking over Cole Beasley’s role. That Cowboys defense is going to be stellar. Once Robert Quinn comes back from suspension (because he took medicine for his brain tumor, what a dick!!!!!!!!!) their front will be further solidified, and between Lawrence’s emergence as a pass rusher and those young LB’s, their defense could be a valuable late-round pick. They’ve improved every year since 2013 on the defensive side, meaning that they should be a top 5 D this season.

Philadelphia Eagles

Highest-value players: Carson Wentz

Sleepers:

Overrated:

General notes: I have absolutely no idea what to say about this year’s Eagles. Carson Wentz will be a solid QB you can get late. He’s generally been underrated in the past but his injury history is now enough to warrant some caution. He has a top-5 O-Line, a receiving corps made up of Jeffery, Ertz, Jackson, Agholor, Goedert, and a stable of running backs. Philly’s success this season really only hinges on his health. He has not been one of the first few quarterbacks consistently picked and his value is very high considering he can be a high-end QB1 while being picked in rounds 10+. I initially thought that Jordan Howard was going to be a fantasy steal, and then the Eagles went and drafted Miles Sanders in the 2nd round. I’m anticipating Sanders to get the bulk of the carries, but Philly has about 3942 RBs so who knows. Sanders is another rookie to target later if you decide to go 0 RB. Alshon “Jeffries” Jeffery is a good red-zone target and probably a better value in standard leagues than PPR. Zach Ertz is the last of the 3 elite TEs you can get, and might outscore the other 2 in PPR leagues. Dallas Goedert will be an amazing waiver pickup if Ertz goes down though, as in possible top 10 TE finish. They look to be a good, well rounded team this year. I’m still mad they swooped Dilliard but that’s life. Desean Jackson has more value in standard scoring than PPR simply due to his big play, feast-or-famine ability.

Washington Redskins

Highest-value players: Adrian Peterson, whichever defense is playing against them

Sleepers:

Overrated:

General notes: Avoid this team for any starters if you can. Guice is Nice but Peterson is the back to have in D.C. until proven otherwise. I fully believe AP/AD/Dad stop hitting me will have another 1k rushing season. Guice offers utility in PPR leagues and deeper leagues, and as I mentioned in the tips earlier, he probably has a higher ceiling. His (recent) injury history is more worrying than AP’s though, and I believe that AP can function better with a worse OL and QB. They’re starting Ereck Flowers on their OL. Case Keenum will presumably start until being benched for Haskins around, say, week 8 or so. This is not a high-powered offense and their WR’s are not good. Jordan Reed is made of glass, don’t bother yourself drafting him. AP has a proven history of handling high volume against stacked boxes and producing solid fantasy numbers, and I think he will be a RB3/FLEX guy with an RB2 ceiling.

New York Football Giants

Highest-value players: Odell Beckham

Sleepers: Golden Tate (PPR)

Overrated: Evan Engram

General notes: The general principle to the hype around Engram is that he’ll receive a lot of targets this season now that OBJ is gone, and in a wasteland of good fantasy TE’s that can bring a lot of positional value. The problem in practice is that when Odell was injured in the past, Engram didn’t exactly shine. Defenses are going to stack the box to stop Barkley, and Engram is not some QB-proof receiving talent. The Giants are likely not going to be very good (of course, the NFCE is basically the upside-down so I won’t be surprised when they win their division) and just drafted a rookie QB very high. Eli doesn’t have his consecutive-starts streak to keep alive anymore, so management has more incentive to put Daniel Jones in games. Maybe the idea is that Engram will be his security blanket for checkdowns, which is fine and makes Engram serviceable in PPR leagues. Again, it’s just too many variables for me to reliably want to draft him as highly as he’s projected. Golden Tate will be back after a suspension and will be the de-facto first receiving option on the team (I guess that also feeds in to the Engram optimism.) He’s always been a solid WR2/FLEX guy in PPR formats and that’s not likely to change. Outside of Byron Jones, I don’t see Tate having a problem toasting the NFCE corners.

The AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Highest-value players: Mark Ingram (standard/0.5 PPR)

Sleepers: Ravens D/ST

Overrated: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown

General notes: Lamar Jackson’s stats from last season are terrifying. Even assuming he only completed passes in the 7 games he started, extrapolating that out brings him in at 170 passing yards/game. That is the nicest possible way to look at his passing stats from last season. I understand he didn’t have a full offseason to adjust to the offense, etc. but for any of his receivers or tight ends, particularly a rookie WR, that’s troubling. For Jackson himself, I get that his rushing stats are what fantasy owners would lean on. He will be on the IR before he successfully has an elite QB1 fantasy season with that method of playing. The Ravens I’m sure have been drilling that into him, but this season looks shaky for his fantasy prospects. The defense, on the other hand, lost Suggs and added a guy by the name of Earl Thomas. They’ve always been good, now they have Ed Reed 2.0. Mark Ingram is a perfect RB for their system, I think he will vastly outperform his draft position and have a top 10-15 RB finish, at least in standard scoring. In 0.5 PPR he’ll likely be top 20, in full PPR he’s a decent flex play.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: Donte Moncrief, Vance McDonald

Overrated: James Conner, James Washington

General notes: JuJu won’t see easier coverage anymore now that AB is gone, but he’s proven himself enough that his uptick in volume should sustain him as a great WR1. Moncrief was brought in presumably to fill their WR spot opposite JuJu, and as JuJu owners last year know, that spot can be very profitable. The Steelers lost their OL coach which I think will have more impact on Conner than people realize, and even though he was made of glass losing their RT to the Cardinals can’t help their run game. Conner will still be a stud but look for more stacked boxes against him with AB gone. McDonald should be a great value at TE, and with the death of the Steelers’ WR coach, I don’t anticipate the Washington hype being fulfilled. He is primarily a slot guy anyways, and given the sheer amount of mouths to feed the “not-JuJu” fantasy spot could be tumultuous. Perhaps this prediction will be completely wrong and Moncrief will bust while Washington breaks out. I personally believe that if you are looking at drafting a Steelers’ WR not named JuJu, it should be Moncrief.

Can Odell return to fantasy superstardom?

Cleveland Browns

Highest-value players: Kareem Hunt

Sleepers: Jarvis Landry (0.5/PPR)

Overrated: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb

General notes: The hype is partially justified for Baker. He has Zach Mettenberger’s college weapons but he’s not trash at football like Zach was. He broke the rookie touchdown record despite not starting the full season, and Odell Beckham Jr. was just added to the team. For OBJ, I think the hype is just the right amount. He’s a game-changing talent and now has a good QB. I do think Baker will finish as a top 10 QB. I’ve also seen him being drafted before Watson, despite having a new head coach and well, being on the Browns. Yes, Kitchens was their OC last season. But defenses have had an off-season to catch up to both his schemes and Baker’s tape, and expectations for the Browns need to be tempered. Losing Zeitler to the Giants in the trade for Vernon flew under the radar, the Browns’ OL is not that great. Kareem Hunt has shown the ability to be very good behind a good-not-great OL. He’s suspended, so Chubb will have very high value early on. Hunt is a great talent (and dumb, bad human) that will absolutely take away from Chubb’s touches upon being reinstated. This suspension also means that his draft stock is very low. Draft him late and profit. Landry will always be a PPR machine.

Cincinnati Bengals

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: AJ Green

Overrated:

General notes: Joe Mixon proved last season that he can get fantasy points no matter how bad the team around him. That’s good because this year’s Bengals are not inspiring. Tyler Boyd is pretty accurately rated as far as I can tell, he’s likely to be a solid WR2 this season with a WR1 upside. He should be a monster in PPR. AJ Green got injured, which might mean that you can get him at a discount. His injury history is looking worse every year, but the Bengals are essentially in full rebuild, so there’s a slight chance Green will be traded, which could only boost his value. Draft Tyler Eifert if you enjoy 3 games of great play followed by your TE going on the IR.

The NFC North

David Montgomery could thrive in the Chiccago offense, due to his extreme thiccness

Da Bears

Highest-value players: Tarik Cohen (0.5/PPR)

Sleepers:

Overrated: Bears D/ST, David Montgomery, Trey Burton

General notes: TE seems to be a barren wasteland. That does not mean that you should draft Trey Burton highly, games are won by total points. Cohen still seems to be slept on somehow, he has an RB2 floor and low-end RB1 upside in PPR leagues and he’s being drafted like he’s a flex player. Fantastic value there for PPR. To re,re,re,re-iterate, overrated does not mean I think a player will do poorly. I think that Montgomery will have a solid fantasy season, and likely more than pick up where Jordan Howard left off. But, in terms of how high he is being drafted, I’ve seen him mocked above Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay not un-regularly. That’s just not a good value pick to me. As I mentioned previously, the top scoring D from one year rarely repeats the following season.

Minnesota Vikings

Highest-value players: Dalvin Cook

Sleepers: Kirk “Kurt” “You Like That?!?” Cousins

Overrated:

General notes: Thielen is finally getting the respect he deserves as a true WR1, and Diggs might be going a bit early for my liking but it’s nothing too egregious. I like Cook, I think he’s going to have a stellar year, they’ve gotten rid of their former OC, and they drafted a center in the first round basically as a gift for Cook. McKinnon is on the 49ers and Murray is on the Saints. Cook is being drafted in the 2nd round and that seems to be a great spot for him. He’s not proven enough yet to merit being mocked in the first, but his upside is pretty undeniable. Cousins can be a good QB2 value, I think he’s gotten more comfortable in Minny and his numbers should reflect that. Kyle Rudolph is finally not being overrated.

Green Bay Packers

Highest-value players:

Sleepers:

Overrated: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones

General notes: Yes, GB got a new head coach. While everyone seems to think that will make Rodgers throw for 6k yards and 80 TD’s, all to Adams, I’m not so sure. Adams is very good, and I think underappreciated and underrated around the league. In fantasy terms, he’s not Deandre Hopkins, and he’s not Michael Thomas, and I’ve routinely seen him ranked with those guys. I’m fine taking him over Odell but he’s still firmly in the “not-quite-first-round-lock” for me tier. Jones I actually love and think he’ll have a great year, but he was so underrated that he’s now overrated. I kid you not, Sports Illustrated’s fantasy issue rated him as the number 5 RB. Absolutely absurd.

Detroit Lions

Highest-value players:

Sleepers: CJ Anderson, Kenny Golladay, Matt Prater

Overrated:

General notes: Kerryon Johnson is a stud and should be solid RB2 value. Again, more reason to go RB late. Big Chungus CJ Anderson however, proved a capable Todd Gurley fill-in last season, might be vulturing some TDs anyways, and if Johnson goes down, Anderson could assume that RB2 value easily. Golladay initially followed the same trajectory as Aaron Jones (so underrated he’s overrated) but then the pendulum swung back to me thinking he’s a steal as I’ve seen Golladay’s ADP plummet for really no reason at all. If he does start getting blanketed by CB’s then Marvin Jones will reap the benefits, so Marvin is almost a handcuff for WR if such a thing exists. Regardless, you’d still be putting a lot of faith in the Lions offense.

That wraps up our “tour” of the NFL, if you really disagreed with any of my rankings or commentary then that’s perfectly okay. Remember that draft strategies should be flexible, I mentioned 0 RB a lot because that’s what’s currently in vogue, but workhorse running backs are at the end of the day still the most valuable resource in fantasy. Don’t outthink yourself, go with your gut, remember that all of my opinions are just as worthless as the fantasy experts out there, and have fun with it! Happy drafting.