find a more recent update for Super Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE

As I had previously cautioned, Typhoon Lupit became Super Typhoon Lupit. The Super Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track has the same result as previously mentioned though how it gets there got changed. The end result is a landfall in Luzon, Philippines; the same area that was devastated by Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana just a few weeks ago. The country knows its coming but what to do about it is another question. The route there got altered a bit as a trof split the big fat ridge that has been the primary steering mechanism for the storm. The ridge expanded last week and finally drove Parma into Vietnam. All that happened was a little weakness developed and allowed Lupit to turn north-northwest. But, that weakness in the ridge to the north is lifting up and out to the northeast. The ridge is re-establishing itself and will be driving Typhoon Lupit on a westward, if not a west-southwest course over the next few days. Both the GFS and NOGAPS feature a very strong tropical cyclone moving across the northern Philippines. The only difference is the timing. The GFS calls for a landfall around 18Z on Wednesday while the NOGAPS is slower with a Friday 6Z landfall.

Two things of interest besides the obvious grave threat to the Philippines. First thing is that the big ridge will continue to drive this guy west, which means it won’t linger over Luzon like Parma did. But, it also means that it will be driving a weakened, but still formidable tropical cyclone into Vietnam, which also suffered ill effects from both Ketsana and Parma. The second thing is that the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center calls for a decrease in intensity from Super Typhoon to Typhoon status prior to landfall. The reasoning (found below) is that the ridge steering the strom will be so strong as to impede the outflow on the north side of the storm.

In my view, the reasoning is debatable but the conclusion is fairly sound. It is extremely difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain such a high intensity of 135 kt sustained winds (155 mph) with 165 kt gusts (190 mph). The reason is that it needs to maintain all perfect conditions such as outflow, water temperature, dry air intrusion and other factors and that just doesn’t generally remain consistent for extended periods. Now the JTWC only backs it down to 120 kts at landfall sometime after 00Z on Thursday (which is a convenient compromise between the NOGAPS and GFS solutions) and that is still extremely dangerous. It will be interesting to see if it does indeed fall back to that extent without any other impediment than the one outlined by the JTWC. The Precipitable Water Loop (Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery Total Precipitable Water) is a really interesting way to visualize the ridge to the north, the motion and potential dry air influences.

WDPN31 PGTW 190300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING

/NR 021//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM

EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-

NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (AMI) SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION

SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE

DECREASING IN AMI AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES

OUT OF THE AREA AND A REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA

NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO EVIDENT IN AMI IS THE SYSTEM TURNING

TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS BACK INTO THE

REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE

TROUGH. POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW, AND INTENSITY

IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.

3. FORECAST REASONING.

A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS

PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.

B. STY 22W WILL COMPLETE A TURN TO THE WEST BY TAU 12 AND WILL

TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE

SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR BUILDING INTO THE

NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK, AND THIS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPEDE POLEWARD

OUTFLOW AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO TYPHOON STRENGTH

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO

EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS OF CONSENSUS (WITH THE CONTINUED

EXCEPTION OF WBAR) IN A TIGHT CLUSTER THAT CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THE

FORECAST TRACK. TRACK SPEEDS ARE ALSO IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.

C. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS

THE STR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BUILDS AND STEERS THE SYSTEM TO LOWER

LATITUDES. STY 22W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN LUZON

SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND CROSS LAND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A LOSS

IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER

AND BEGINS A PERIOD OF SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.//

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