A LOT of Aussies regard Donald Trump as one big joke.

He’s the politician-slash-celebrity whose bizarre gaffes, cringeworthy tweets and deliciously memeable face gives us a quick laugh – and occasional gasp – before we go back to our own pollies.

But here’s the thing: the man’s popularity with the American public has shown no sign of slowing down.

According to the new CNN Poll of Polls, released today, Hillary Clinton holds an average of 45 per cent support while Donald Trump is backed by 43 per cent – a vastly different race to what many anticipated.

From the start of the year to now, the gap between the two frontrunning candidates has increasingly narrowed, suggesting a much tighter contest for the US election.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten recently labelled the Republican frontrunner’s views “barking mad”, leading to a fiery exchange between Tanya Plibersek and Leigh Sales earlier this week over whether a Trump-Shorten win could damage Australia’s relationship with the US.

Tanya Plibersek defended the leader’s comments, saying they were no different to when Prime Minister John Howard declared that terrorists would celebrate a victory by Democrat presidential candidate, now president Barack Obama.

“That didn’t affect our relationship,” she said. “I think our relationship has withstood many years and would withstand a Trump presidency well.”

Tanya Plibersek: "We want alliance and not compliance" Leigh Sales questions Tanya Plibersek on ties with the US in conflict if republican candidate Donald Trump becomes president of the Unites States. The question comes after Opposition leader Bill Shorten said Trump was "barking mad." Courtesy: 7.30/ABC

HOW WILL A TRUMP PRESIDENCY AFFECT AUSTRALIA?

Regardless of whether our leaders choose to criticise him or not, just how badly would a Trump presidency impact on Australia?

A number of experts believe there will be consequences. In fact, Australia’s former ambassador to the United States Kim Beazley said a Trump victory “would be an absolute disaster in our region”.

In a lecture in April the former Labor leader said a Trump presidency would cause substantial problems in relations with China and sink the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

David Smith, a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, told news.com.au the fact that Trump is going after China could hurt Australia.

He warned, for example, that Trump’s plan to go after a 45 per cent tariff on imported Chinese goods could lead to a trade war.

“If there was any further slowdown in the Chinese economy, that would hurt Australia,” he said. “As would any further slowdown in the US economy.”

He also said that if a trade war between the US and China was to broaden out, and become political or militant, it could put Australia in a very awkward position.

Why? Because we have important trade relationships with both countries. China and the United States are our biggest and third-biggest two-way trade partners, respectively. The last thing we need, should Trump escalate tensions between the US and China, is to choose sides.

Dr Adam Lockyer, a security expert at Macquarie University, likewise says China is the big factor at play here.

“Trump has been quite bullish in his comments towards China,” Dr Lockyer told news.com.au. He said things are getting increasingly tense between the two, which could have repercussions for Australia.

“Australia’s position is we don’t want to choose,” he explained. “As soon as we’re forced to make a choice, we lose. The guiding principle of Australian foreign policy is ‘Don’t choose between the US and China’. Doing so will either affect our security or our economy – or both.”

Dr Lockyer also warned that Trump is a much more isolationist president. He wants America to withdraw troops from the Asia-Pacific region, which would “give China more breathing space” to advance in the South China Sea.

He said if China withdrew from the region, we’d likely see Australia sucked into a conflict alongside the US, who would be forced to defend their allies, like South Korea, Japan and the Philippines.

On the plus side, Dr Lockyer said Trump would probably never actually follow through on withdrawing troops from the Asia-Pacific. “He can’t really do it without taking a huge reputational cost to the US,” he said. “It would mean tearing up treaties that have been in place for 60 years.”

WHAT ABOUT IMMIGRATION?

Trump’s frequent controversial remarks on immigrants could pose another problem for us.

He’s notoriously claimed that, as president of the United States, he would “stop illegal immigrants by building a wall” on the country’s southern border, that Mexico would have to pay for.

He’s also previously called for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States”.

In an article published by The Conversation earlier this year, Deakin University academics Benjamin Isakhan and Zim Nwokora warned that Trump’s vision of a more insular America could empower racist groups in Australia.

“Australia is facing complex challenges relating to immigration and refugees,” they write. “What Australia and the world urgently need is compassionate but decisive leadership that is able to manage the mass humanitarian problem with financial and cultural sensitivity.

However, while Australian politicians have often used a “dog whistle” on immigration, Trump uses a loudspeaker.

“Trump’s moves could embolden such movements (as Reclaim Australia) and lend legitimacy to their aims.”

Dr Smith agreed with this to an extent. He said Trump’s rhetoric would certainly embolden already-existing anti-immigration voices in Australia.

“We can always see anti-immigration commentators using this, and saying, ‘If the US can defend its land borders, we can defend our sea borders.’”

But he also pointed out that it probably wouldn’t have a practical, political impact on our end of the world.

“We have to remember that in Australia, even though there’s a whole lot of bipartisan consensus around tough policing of our sea borders, there’s also bipartisan consensus around maintaining our immigration levels.

“The US has 11 million unauthorised entrants, so it’s completely different to Australia. Trump’s rhetoric is not completely portable.”

Dr Lockyer said nationalism is on the rise around the world – not just in the US, and certainly not just in Australia.

“In Australia, even though immigration is really ramped up, it’s a minor issue,” he said, saying it’s nothing compared to Europe.

Isakhan and Nwokora also wrote that the ongoing effort to defeat Islamic State could affect Australia, based on our “problematic legacy of following the US into ill-conceived wars that end in disaster”.

Trump has made his stance on this clear and aggressive in the past, having promised last November that he would go after ISIS-controlled oil fields and “bomb the s**t out of them”.

“Trump’s preference for indiscriminate force could create a real risk that Australia is dragged into another war in the Middle East,” wrote Isakhan and Nwokora.

“IS targets innocent women and children. The suggestion by a presidential candidate that he might do the same ought to cause international condemnation. It will certainly fuel IS’s propaganda machine.”

The good news, according to both Smith and Lockyer, is that Trump is wildly inconsistent. His story changes from one day to the next, as do his promises and campaign lines. Therefore, we technically won’t know with certainty what might happen under a Trump presidency until it happens.

Such is the joyous game of politics.