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Re: Coin Flip

From:re47@hillaryclinton.com To: tflournoy11@gmail.com CC: john.podesta@gmail.com, ha16@hillaryclinton.com, jpalmieri@hillaryclinton.com, angel@presidentclinton.com Date: 2016-02-02 21:33 Subject: Re: Coin Flip

Haha! Yes! The exciting news...they have coin flips in Nevada too!! On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 6:27 PM, tina <tflournoy11@gmail.com> wrote: > Did y'all see this > > > From: "Yoon, Robert" <Robert.Yoon@turner.com> > Date: February 2, 2016 at 5:43:21 PM EST > Subject: Iowa Caucuses - Coin Flips EXPLAINED! > [sent to: *CNN Political Plus (TBS)] > > > From CNN Director of Political Research Robert Yoon > > for those of you who are interested in the coin flip saga from last > night's Democratic Iowa caucuses, here is some important context. > > Hillary Clinton's narrow margin of victory over Bernie Sanders has focused > attention on the role of coin flips in determining the final results. > > Coin flips, more specifically "games of chance," are used in rare > circumstances at precinct caucuses to adjudicate ties or resolve issues > created by rounding error. At stake at these precinct-level coin flips is > the one remaining slot in that precinct for a campaign to send a delegate > to attend that precinct's county convention. Coin flips are not used to > decide which candidate wins a state convention delegate or national > convention delegate. > > How many coin flips were there last night? > The Iowa Democratic Party does not have comprehensive records on how many > coin flips/games of chance were held last night. However, they do have > partial records. More than half of the 1681 Democratic caucuses held last > night used the new Microsoft reporting app. Of those, there were exactly 7 > county delegates determined by coin flip. The remaining precincts did not > use the Microsoft app, and instead used traditional phone-line reporting to > transmit results. In these precincts, there is no records of how many coin > flips there were. All there is is anecdotal information on these precincts. > > Who won these coin flips? > Of the 7 coin flips/games of chance that were held in precincts using the > Microsoft app, 6 of those were flips to determine whether a county delegate > slot went to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Of those 6 > Clinton-vs.-Sanders coin flips, BERNIE SANDERS WON 5 COIN FLIPS; HILLARY > CLINTON won 1. The 7th coin flip was used to determine whether a county > delegate slot went to Sanders or Martin O'Malley. SANDERS WON THAT COIN > FLIP AS WELL. So, in the 7 coin flips that the Iowa Democratic Party has a > record of, BERNIE SANDERS WON SIX OF THEM (5 against Clinton, 1 against > O'Malley). > > THUS, IT IS INCORRECT TO SAY THAT HILLARY CLINTON WON EVERY COIN FLIP! > > As for the less-than-half of the precincts that didn't use the Microsoft > app, we don't know how many coin flips took place. Only anecdotal > information is available on these flips, such as the web videos that were > circulating last night. > > Did Hillary Clinton win the Iowa Caucuses thanks to coin flips? > > Hillary Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by the equivalent of about 4 state > delegates. If the anecdotal evidence of Clinton winning 6 coin flips is > correct, she would have won 6 COUNTY delegates through coin flips (setting > aside the fact that party records show Bernie Sanders also won 6 county > delegates as a result of coin flips). There is not a one-to-one correlation > between county delegates and state delegates, or to national convention > delegates. Based on the party's delegate selection rules, a single county > delegate represents a tiny fraction of a state convention delegate (the > exact ratio is difficult to calculate because it varies from county to > county). > > Norm Sterzenbach, the former executive director of the Iowa Democratic > Party who oversaw the party's 2008 and 2012 Iowa Caucuses, told CNN: > > "I can say with almost absolutely certainty this election would not have > been changed because of the coin flips. It would take a very large number > of these to make that kind of impact, and one candidate would have to win > them all. Our empirical evidence and anecdotal information shows that one > candidate didn’t win them all, and that coin flips are not that frequent." > > Sterzenbach has worked with with the Iowa caucuses since 2000. He is not > aligned with any 2016 campaign, has not endorsed a candidate, and did not > caucus for any 2016 candidate. > He says that 4 state delegate equivalents may seem like a small amount, > but that it would take "a lot" of county delegates to amount to 4 state > delegates. He said based on his recollection, there seemed to have been > more instances of coin flips being held in 2008 than in 2016. > > BOTTOM LINE: > * yes, some precinct caucuses employed coin flips to allocate a single > county delegate from that precinct to a candidate > * Hillary Clinton did not win all the coin flips > * More than half of the state's 1681 precincts reported a combined total > of 7 coin flips taking place, of which Bernie Sanders won 6, Hillary > Clinton 1. Official records are not available for coin flips held in the > state's remaining precincts > * a county delegate elected at a precinct caucus represents a small > fraction of a state delegate equivalent > * the former Iowa Democratic Party executive director says with "almost > absolute certainty" that coin flips did not determine the overall caucus > outcome > > > > Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T