In this long, long essay, I’m going to break down how I think Theon will end up sitting the Seastone Chair by the end of ASOIAF. In Part 1, I’ll look at the state of affairs on the Iron Islands, and examine the potential conspiracy brewing on Great Wyk. In Part 2, we’ll swing over to the mainland and look at where Theon is now and who would want him on the Seastone Chair. If I somehow make it to part 3, I’ll outline specifically how I think the chapters in TWOW will play out, and how they’ll line up with other plotlines in terms of theme and pace.

Part I – The Anti-Euron Conspiracy

In this section, I will first look at what Aeron Greyjoy might be up to. Then, we’ll jump to Theon’s other uncle Rodrik Harlaw and see where he’s been sowing seeds. Finally, we’ll assemble a roster of rebels against Euron.

Drowned Men

If you’re anything like me, you grew up with one major question about life: can a godless man sit the Seastone Chair? Well, thanks to Aeron Greyjoy, we know the answer at last.

Aeron’s last on-screen words in ASOIAF so far spell out a particular agenda. He tells Victarion:

The ironborn shall be waves … Not the great and lordly, but the simple folk, tillers of the soil and fishers of the sea. The captains and the kings raised Euron up, but the common folk shall tear him down. I shall go to Great Wyk, to Harlaw, to Orkmont, to Pyke itself. In every town and village shall my words be heard. No godless man may sit the Seastone Chair!

This is, in fact, a radical proposal for the Iron Islands. Throughout history, the Ironborn have lived by the Old Way. The Old Way focuses on a caste system elevating reavers above their thralls. Steven Attwell of Race for the Iron Throne fame has written extensively on Ironborn culture, but I’ll point to this paragraph from his analysis of Theon I in ACOK:

I would argue instead that the Ironborn resembles the Civil-War era (white) South, which George R.R Martin researched in preparation for his novel Fevre Dream, which posited vampires as part of the parasitic plantation elite. Consider the similarities: just as the Ironborn strongly emphasize the differences between ironman and thrall, the South laid down sharp divisions between white and black, free and slave; just as the Ironborn treat one another with a rough equality, historians have pointed out how the necessities of white unity against the threat of slave rebellions required the creation of a cultural attitude in which all whites were equal, and had to be treated better than black slaves.

There is a social unity of reavers and Ironborn overtop of thralls. Thralls, in Ironborn culture, are used for farming and mining, activities considered too low for true Ironborn. They are often taken in battle – or at least were, historically. Now, 300 years after Aegon put an end to the mass-scale Old Way reaving in Westeros, the picture looks a little different. Interestingly enough, Quellon Greyjoy outlawed thralldom in the Iron Islands…but, as soon as he died, Balon re-instated the thrall system.

We have yet to see first-hand the smallfolk of the Iron Islands. But dig this – they have been very recently disenfranchised at the hands of Balon Greyjoy. Their scanty rights were revoked, and they were made into little better than slaves. Robert Baratheon, by the way, never did anything to re-enfranchise the thralls, as far as we know. Nice going, Bob.

What’s the point in all this? Well, the point is that Aeron is doing more than just leading a religious revolt. He’s going to end up sparking off a social revolution. Aeron is a fan of the Old Way, of course. But it looks like he is proposing something radical here – divorcing tenets of the Old Way from the faith of the Drowned God.

Because this still will be a fundamentally religious revolution. First off – it’s led by Aeron “Damphair” Greyjoy, the man who has never lost a Drowned Man and who claims to speak for the Drowned God himself. The Iron Islands have a proud history of priestly rebellions, too. Harmund III Hoare saw a rebellion from The Shrike, a high priest of the Drowned God who denounced Harmund’s opposition to the thralldom system. Even earlier, in the Age of Heroes, it was Galon Whitestaff who actually created the traditions of the Old Way, most of which still exist.

And there are religious reasons to oppose Euron Greyjoy – he evokes the Storm God, the enemy of all Drowned Men. He’s taken crows for his personal sigil; ravens, for what it’s worth, are canonicly the servants of the Storm God, who is the dire enemy of the Drowned God. He supposedly did some wacky blood sacrifices to the Storm God to get good winds for the Battle of the Shield Islands. And hell – he literally calls himself “the first storm, and the last.” It’s not too much of a stretch to assume that Aeron will denounce Euron based partially on this “godless” association with the Storm God.

Euron also might be making enemies among the ranks of the Drowned Men. In AFFC, he executes Baelor Blacktyde for refusing to acknowledge Euron as his true king. Baelor has a relative (relation unknown) named Blind Beron Blacktyde. He is a friend and ally to Aeron Greyjoy – and in ADWD, we learn that he’s been captured by Erik Ironmaker, who is enacting a sort of Inquisition for Euron on the Iron Islands. Yes, you read that correctly – Euron is actively hunting down the Drowned Men.

The Drowned Men will have good reason to jump up and overthrow Erik Ironmaker and Euron Greyjoy. But they’ll need forces, and the only forces left on the Iron Islands are the thralls and the smallfolk. (For what it’s worth – GRRM has left it pretty ambiguous as to how many thralls are on the Islands, and whether any smallfolk is a thrall. So the definitions might be a little woobly. Either way, I’m talking about a group of disenfranchised laborers). Enfranchising the thralls will require help from the lords, and will also go against the Old Way. But I think Aeron will push for this. His one single-minded purpose is to stop Euron. He’ll be willing to claim that the thrall system of the Old Way is somehow antithetical to the faith of the Drowned God.

All this combines to form the picture of a populist religious uprising, driven by several groups with different reasons for a common goal: to destroy Euron Greyjoy. The thralls will rise up in a general populist revolt. The Drowned Men oppose Euron’s godlessness. But both sides agree: Euron is not the man they want in the Seastone Chair.

Harlaw and Order

Let’s jump ship now and talk about Rodrik Harlaw, the Other Nuncle.

From the moment we meet him, Rodrik Harlaw shows a quiet resistance to the ways of the Ironborn. He is opposed to the very idea of the Kingsmoot, and cautions Asha. One quote in particular establishes his character:

“This dream of kingship is a madness in our blood. I told your father so the first time he rose, and it is more true now than it was then. It’s land we need, not crowns. With Stannis Baratheon and Tywin Lannister contending for the Iron Throne, we have a rare chance to improve our lot. Let us take one side or the other, help them to victory with our fleets, and claim the lands we need from a grateful king.”

Rodrik Harlaw is a canny man and a cautious man – but a man who is not afraid to resist Euron. Crucially, it’s Rodrik Harlaw who suggests that Asha should read up on Ironborn history – a suggestion that proves salient when Tristifer Botley reminds Asha of the story of Torgon Latecomer.

To quickly summarize that story – Torgon was away from the Iron Islands when his father the king died and a kingsmoot was held. His brothers held the Kingsmoot quickly, hoping that one of them would be chosen while Torgon was away. However, Urrathon IV Goodbrother won the kingship, and executed Torgon’s brothers. When Torgon returned, he declared the Kingsmoot unflawful and, with the help of the priests, the people, and Urrathon’s own captains, killed Urrathon and took up the driftwood crown.

There’ll be more on Asha’s role later, but I believe Rodrik has this story in mind, to a certain extent. He’s not a man of action, so he’s not being particularly proactive about the Theon Latecomer idea. But he knows the story –

“You cannot go against that judgment now. Only once has the choice of a kingsmoot been overthrown. Read Haereg.”

And knows well that history repeats itself:

“Archmaester Rigney once wrote that history is a wheel, for the nature of man is fundamentally unchanging. What has happened before will perforce happen again, he said. I think of that whenever I contemplate the Crow’s Eye.”

What Rodrik doesn’t know is that Theon is alive and “well.” Asha knows this better than him – to the Iron Islands, Theon is dead and gone; Rodrik doesn’t push for Theon because, well, I don’t think he believes Theon is still a viable candidate. But should Asha cook up this Theon Latecomer scheme, I think Rodrik will be more than ready to jump on board.

Besides that, I believe Rodrik is actively sowing seeds of discontent throughout the Ironborn lords. He is a thinking man, and when he comes onscreen after the battle of the Shield Islands, we should pay attention to what he’s saying.

Victarion walks into a conversation between Rodrik, Dunstsann Drumm, and Gorold Goodbrother. Rodrik and Dunstan point out some important dangers – that they’ve incurred the wrath of House Tyrell, that Randyll Tarly himself might be coming to get them, and that Euron curiously let Hewett’s ravens go. Victarion, of course, completely misses the point of the Harlaw/Drumm/Goodbrother conversation – these men are leery of following Euron, and beginning to question his reckless daring.

In his post “The Grape Feint,” BryndenBFish argues that Euron’s attack on the Reach is a feint to draw out the Redwyne fleet and the Tyrell armies, moving them to the West to clear the East for a Daenerys invasion. It makes a great deal of sense – and, what’s more, I think we are seeing Rodrik start to put these pieces together in AFFC. Again – he’s not a bold man, or a man of action. But he is the only man to question Euron to his face. During the meeting in Lord Hewett’s Town, it’s Rodrik’s probing questions that get to the heart of Euron’s plans; he goes so far as to challenge Euron’s claim of having saild to Valyria.

Roll Call

We’ve talked a lot about the way Rodrik Harlaw is investigating Euron’s plans and laying seeds up and down the west coast. But who else? Who else is involved in this conspiracy?

We know Aeron is hiding out on Great Wyk. Great Wyk is the largest of the Iron Islands, and it’s where Aeron was wandering at the start of AFFC; it’s no surprise that Aeron would use it as a base. Several lordly houses rule on Great Wyk, but the greatest of them is House Goodbrother.

Gorold Goodbrother is one of the three conspirators talking in Lord Hewett’s Town (the others being Rodrik Harlaw and Dunstan Drumm). The Goodbrothers are one of the most powerful houses of the Iron Islands; moreover, they have a cubic shit-ton of thralls working in the mines of Great Wyk. There are several cadet branches of the Goodbrothers scattered across Great Wyk, Old Wyk, and Orkmont. So there’s a potential network of communication existing already for House Goodbrother. Gorold first shouted for Victarion at the moot, and then shouted for Euron. He’s looking a little disgruntled after the Shield Islands battle, though, for all the reasons that Rodrik has established.

Dunstan Drumm was the other man in Rodrik’s parlay. Dunstan himself was a candidate at the Kingsmoot. When Euron rewards several men with islands and castles after the Battle, one of those men is Andrik the Unsmiling, who was a supporter of Dunstan’s at the Kingsmoot. House Drumm rules Old Wyk – where some Goodbrothers also live. Old Wyk is also critical to the religious side of the movement. Nagga’s Bones are there; the hill of the Kingsmoot is holy, and Aeron will undoubtedly use this if a Theon Latecomer Kingsmoot arises. House Drumm’s support is crucial.

Let’s look at the other people Euron rewards. He gives Oakenshield to Nute the Barber, stealing Victarion’s lieutenant. He gives Southshield to Andrik the Unsmiling, stealing away Dunstan’s supporter. He gives Greenshield to Maron Volmark, partially to honor Vomlark’s claim on the Seastone Chair and partially to divide the constinuency of Harlaw. The Volmarks are sworn to House Harlaw, after all, and Rodrik is proving a thorn in Euron’s side. To add to this, he gives Greyshield to Harras Harlaw, a cousin of Rodrik’s. Before the Shield Islands, Euron also elevated Erik Ironmaker to the regent of the Iron Islands while Euron is away, and divided the Botley lands between Glooberglomp Botley and some other guy. Okay, I can’t be bothered to look up every single one of these ironborn names. Basically Euron has just been shitting all over the lords of the Iron Islands, killing people wantonly and handing out castles to lieutenants like they were hotcakes.

All this is to say – Euron has left some really unhappy people in his wake. He may well have alienated most of House Blacktyde; he killed Baelor Blacktyde, and Erik Ironmaker has imprisoned Blind Beron Blacktyde, who is a priest of the Drowned Men. Tristifer Botley, if he ever got his lazy ass in gear, could make a claim on his inheritance (which Euron stripped him of by giving away half his lands to Glooberglomp Botley).

Actually, let’s take the Botleys serious for a moment. Glooberglomp’s real name is Germund (what an ass-ugly name), and he’s Tristifer Botley’s uncle. Euron is very clever in giving the lands to Germund; he’s establishing the same precedent that makes him king over Asha or Theon by choosing the brother of the lord over the son of the lord. If Tristifer ends up as part of a pro-Theon contingency, he would be part of an ideological return to the traditional laws of inheritence. Tristifer has just been potentially reunited with Asha; he’s part of Tycho Nestoris’ entourage at the end of ADWD. But there’ll be more on the mainlanders another day.

Add in to this Meldred Merlyn, Lord of Pebbleton on Great Wyk, and we get the picture of a potential lordly conspiracy to go with our smallfolk/religious conspiracy. Here’s some bullet points to break up this wall of horrible text:

House Goodbrother, on Great Wyk, Old Wyk, and Orkmont

House Drumm, on Old Wyk

House Merlyn on Great Wyk

House Harlaw of Harlaw

House Botley (the real one, not this fake Glooberglomp shit) of Lordsport on Pyke

House Blacktyde of Blacktyde

And here’s a handy map outlining how the rest of the islands are about to gang up on Pyke:

Right away, you can see the potential chain of events. Old Wyk and Great Wyk look to be the centers of potential discord, but Blacktyde, Orkmont, and of course Harlaw might complete the circle around Pyke. I left House Botley off the map. If Tris does end up getting off his lazy arse and doing something, I would only see it happening once the rest of the Iron Islands power is consolidated. And right now, the rest of the Iron Islands are in a perfect position to bring the hammer down on Pyke, Robert-style.

It’s an impressive potential roster. Obviously most of the strength of these houses is either in the Iron Fleet with Victarion or part of Euron’s Reach Raiders. But who’s been left behind?

The thralls.

Again, it comes back to the power of the smallfolk. It’s a big thematic element for GRRM, and one that often rumbles under the surface before finally blasting into view. It also fits in with his theme of religious fundamentalism coming to the fore in Westeros. We’re seeing fanatic R’hllorism take root in the R’hiverlands, and of course the Sparrows have a stranglehold on King’s Landing. We might be about to see the Drowned Thralls Uprising, powered by enfranchised thralls from the major houses of most of the islands. To revisit Aeron’s quote:

The ironborn shall be waves … Not the great and lordly, but the simple folk, tillers of the soil and fishers of the sea. The captains and the kings raised Euron up, but the common folk shall tear him down. I shall go to Great Wyk, to Harlaw, to Orkmont, to Pyke itself. In every town and village shall my words be heard. No godless man may sit the Seastone Chair!

Traditionally, the religion of the Iron Islands has excluded thralls; they don’t fit into the system of the Old Way. And yet, and yet. Aeron is a desperate man with a great capacity for riling up the common people and a fanatical devotion to destroying Euron. And if you think Aeron isn’t capable of eschewing the Old Way in order to break Euron’s reign, just look at Victarion. He’s so driven by his hatred of Euron that he turns away from his Ironborn identity and allies with Moqorro, performing blood sacrifices – just like Euron. Euron will drive his two brothers to abandon their strict Old Way code out of sheer hatred for him.

Conclusion

I’ve been speaking pretty broadly this whole time – big themes and generalites, yaddah yaddah yaddah. So to end this, I’m going to break down what I think specifically will happen.

First off – I think Aeron has been captured by Erik Ironmaker. “What?” you might be saying. “How can he lead a religious revolt from in prison?” Well, here’s what GRRM had to say about Aeron’s first chapter in TWOW (one that was cut from the end of ADWD, for the record):

He did try to sell the Damphair chapter by saying there was some “seriously twisted stuff”

From Worldcon 2011.

I think we’ll get a chapter where Aeron is, in fact, at his low. Captured by Euron’s cronies, tortured – and possibly reminded of whatever it is Euron did to him when he was younger. Then, I think, there’ll be a prison break, as Drowned Men and Damphair loyalists swoop in to stomp on Erik Ironmaker. But I think this inprisonment is key to Aeron’s motivations going forward. Vic and Aeron have similar arcs, and Vic’s major development comes when he is damaged and repaired, so to speak; when his hand becomes a problem and Moqorro solves it with magic. So I think Aeron’s story will kick off with some seriously twisted stuff indeed, which will in turn drive The Damphair Schism – the separating of Thralldom from the religion of the Drowned God. Ultimately, though, I think this rebellion will leap beyond Aeron and the lords. Just as Victarion is playing with magic beyond his ken, Aeron is going to find out that thralls are people – people who Want, and people who have suffered enough at the hands of Ironmen. Like Victarion’s dragon horn, the thralls of the Iron Islands will work great things beyond their wielder’s will.

At the same time, I think the lords whose gruntles have been dissed by Euron are colluding in the background, looking for an excuse to jump ship (so to speak). Aeron’s rebellion will give them that excuse. They’ll lend their support to the uprising – either vocally or tacitly – as an attempt to regain the power that Euron has been stripping away from them. Gorold Goodbrother, Dunstan Drumm, Rodrik Harlaw, and several other lords (probably) are already working together, but lack the power to hit Euron where it hurts. Aeron’s conveniently-timed uprising (motivatied by his own desperate sense of revenge) will be the perfect chance to denounce Euron and declare for another, more godly, candidate.

A candidate, say, with a broken smile.

Let me know what you think! Part 2 can be found here.