2. President Obama is near all-time lows on his approval ratings.

That Times article also contains a quote explaining one of the key reasons Democrats are freaked out. "One Democratic lawmaker, who asked not to be identified, said Mr. Obama was becoming 'poisonous' to the party’s candidates." Presidential popularity can be a key tool for ginning up support on the campaign trail. And being tied to an unpopular president can be an anchor.

Last week, an NBC / Wall Street Journal poll identified the poison. Obama's approval is at a record low in the surveys, and voters are wary of voting for people who are seen as solidly supportive of his administration. Democrats are eager to get Obama's vaunted-but-diminished voter engagement apparatus involved in their races, but Mr. Obama is welcome to remain in Washington, thank you very much.

3. Republicans have figured out how to walk the line on Obamacare.

In the wake of Jolly's win last week, Republicans clearly feel emboldened to return to the attack on Obamacare, a policy that (obviously not objective) GOP Chair Reince Priebus called "complete poison out there in the field." As Reuters notes, the win "has emboldened Republicans to press their case hard against Obama's signature first-term achievement."

Reuters reports that a Democratic pollster sent a memo around Capitol Hill after last week's race, explaining that "'keeping parts' of the Affordable Care Act that work and 'fixing those that don't' drew higher numbers than 'the Republican message of repeal.'"

Which is why House Republicans, after 50 votes attempting to curtail the law, have shifted toward a package of fixes. The Washington Post's Robert Costa describes the proposal as a sort of greatest hits of Republican reform proposals. And the rationale for releasing it now is obvious. "In meetings with Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) last week," Costa reports, "House leadership allies cast Florida as a sign of good things to come in November. But they also cautioned that Republicans needed to offer a clearer alternative."

It's important to note that the caucus' right-most wing, the group that largely prompted those 50 votes, is skeptical. But in order to rebut the Democrats on the campaign trail, Republicans only need an alternative in-hand, not necessarily for anything to pass.

4. Outside Republican groups are outspending their opposition.

A key concern from Democrats is how badly they're being outspent. While Jolly and the Republicans were outspent by his Democratic rival Alex Sink and her allies in Florida, that's not the case nationally. The Times reports that "Republican groups have spent about $40 million in this election cycle, compared with just $17 million by Democrats" — largely focused on a repeal of Obamacare. The head of the Democrats' House campaign committee, New York Rep. Steve Israel, put it bluntly. "Florida 13 doesn’t keep me up at night," he said, "but the aggregate Republican super PAC money makes me toss and turn."