Sep 5, 2018

For millions of Turks who voted against him in the June 24 presidential elections it's too late, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s popularity has taken a substantial hit, according to a recent survey. Metropoll, an Ankara-based polling outfit, reported that Erdogan’s job approval rating had dipped to 44.5% in August 2018 from 53.1% a month prior.

The data published on the polling site’s Twitter account offered no further information because the company’s monthly report is circulated privately to paying clients. Moreover, in the absence of similar surveys, it's impossible to compare its results. However, it’s not far-fetched to assume that after 16 years of uninterrupted power Erdogan’s appeal may be waning as his strongest suit, a thriving economy, is coming unstuck.

The Turkish lira has lost around 40% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year and Turkey’s banks are under growing pressure. They need to refinance $77 billion of foreign currency-denominated wholesale bonds and syndicated loans, according to Moody’s Investors Service, within the next year. The financial ratings agency downgraded 20 Turkish financial institutions on Aug. 28.

Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose 2.05 points last month to 18% and the government was forced to raise natural gas and electricity prices by 14% and 9%, respectively. That is the highest level of inflation recorded since 2003.

Municipal elections that are due to be held in March 2019 will be a critical test. Erdogan told reporters en route home from Kyrgyzstan he might consider fielding joint candidates with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in a repeat of his alliance with the group in the June 24 presidential elections. The MHP did not field its own candidate, backing Erdogan instead. Erdogan clearly feels vulnerable as he continues to rely on the nationalists’ support.