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Grand Rapids Police Lt. Mike Maycroft leaves a roll call at the start of his shift last Wednesday. The department has lost 17 percent of its officers over the past decade, yet crime is on the decline in the city and communities across the state.

(Emily Zoladz | MLive.com)

He was police officer of the year just months ago, at one of the state’s largest departments. Decorated. Heralded. One of the best.

Then he was laid off.

Today, Brian Wilson does odd jobs to make ends meet. He works part-time one day a week at one of the state’s smallest departments.

“A lot of my awards … had to do with being proactive,” said the former Saginaw police officer. “My ability to do that was reduced significantly over the past year because I didn’t have as much back-up and I didn’t have anywhere near as much time on the road.”

Michigan is bleeding police officers. In the past decade, enough cops have been cut to equal the elimination of all Michigan State Police officers and the entire sworn force in Grand Rapids, the state’s second-largest city.

But there’s the conundrum, an MLive Media Group investigation found.

Despite the decline, you have never been safer in Michigan from serious crimes in a decade.

FEWER COPS, LESS CRIME

An MLive analysis of dwindling manpower at police agencies statewide and corresponding crime trends.

SUNDAY: Police ranks have dropped 14 percent since 2004. Why is crime down?

• Use this search tool to see police manpower and crime trends in your community and hundreds of others.

• How the analysis was done.

• Unleaded gas? Aging Boomers? Theories on why crime is dropping.

LOCAL REPORTS

• Ann Arbor: Police decrease in most agencies; crime follows suit.

• Flint: Police force cut nearly in half; violent crimes doubles

• Flint: Suburban crime up; cops down.

• Bay City: Police ranks drop 26 percent, but crime down as well.

• Kalamazoo: Violent and property crimes plummet countywide.

• Saginaw: Laid off "officer of the year" hopes to return; crime continues to drop.

• Muskegon: Crime drops despite fewer cops in the county, Muskegon Heights.

• Muskegon: Cops cover multiple jobs in wake of budget-cutting.

MONDAY: "Point 'em out, knock 'em out." Brutal game meets concealed gun.

LOCAL REPORTS

• Grand Rapids: Area crime drops, but does it mean fewer officers are needed?

• Muskegon: Cop cuts mean less territorialism, more collaboration.

TUESDAY: Gone in 60 seconds? Not as often. Auto thefts have been cut by half.

WEDNESDAY: Detroit lost a third of its cops. Why is it having trouble recruiting?



People don’t get robbed as much, or assaulted, or raped. Cars thefts are rarer by half. Your wallets and purses are less likely to be taken. At the same time, there are fewer police in your neighborhood.

It is an enigma for cops, who hope more officers mean less crime.

The MLive investigation analyzed a decade of police manpower and crime statistics in the state since 2003. The analysis covered more than 500 departments, and 2.3 million reported crimes.

The conclusion was surprising. Even as communities bemoan the loss of sworn officers, serious crimes continue to drop in most places across the state.

So why do we need more police – or even as many as we have?

The answer is perplexing for departments that push for greater staffing as the economy picks up, but struggle to find statistical support.

“I’ve got command staff and officers that want to make the argument that crime numbers are up as our numbers have dropped, and it can’t be done,” said Lt. Patrick Merrill, an analyst for the Grand Rapids Police Department.

The city lost one in seven officers since 2003 -- 17 percent. At the same time, violent crime dropped 33 percent. Property crime dropped an almost identical amount. The city lost just 5 percent of its residents.

“We’ve had feelers put out from the FBI asking us for the justification, ‘Why is crime going down, while your (manpower) numbers are dropping?’ They don’t appear to have any more explanation than we do,” Merrill said.

Many cities saw serious reported crimes decline, MLive’s analysis of state police and FBI statistics show. From 2003 to the last year records are available:

• Ann Arbor lost 31 percent of its officers, to 111. Population stayed nearly stable. Still, violent crimes dropped 11 percent; property crimes dropped 23 percent.

• Lansing lost 26 percent of its officers, falling to 187. Population fell just 4 percent. But violent crime fell 8 percent, and property crimes fell 20 percent.

• Saginaw lost 22 percent of its officers, to 86, and 15 percent of its population from 2003 to 2012. But violent and property crimes dropped much more, both nearly 30 percent.

There are exceptions of course, Flint lost half its force and violent crime soared. Detroit lost one in four officers, but it also lost about a quarter of its population. Per capita violent crime was up only slightly, about 6 percent.

Still, the downward trend in crimes and cops holds up statewide.

Nearly one in 10 full-time officers was lost in the past 10 years – 1,870 in all - 14 percent if you start counting after the last increase in 2004.The overall population fell less than 2 percent.

Former Saginaw Police Officer Brian Wilson won numerous honors for his work, but was laid off earlier this year. He now works one day a week at a small department.

But crime rates dropped even further. From 2003 to 2011, the last year statewide figures are available from the FBI, serious violent and property crimes together dropped 22 percent.

September will be an important month. The FBI will release its annual crime report, with trends updated for 2012.

Big changes are not expected. Serious crime rates have been dropping nationally since the early 1990s. Don’t ask the FBI what’s going on.

“We don’t speak as to the what and the why,” said Simon Shaykhet, spokesman for the FBI’s Detroit Division.

“We don’t give any type of commentary as to why the numbers are going a certain way. It is a bureau thing. We’re not opinion-based in what we do. We’re just about the facts.”

Unleaded gas? Better technology? Abortions?

Of the state’s 50 largest police agencies, 37 saw manpower declines from 2003 through 2012. Statewide, the downward trend accelerated in 2010.

Still, 34 of the same agencies saw serious violent crimes decline on a per capita basis, They include murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault. Property crimes declined in 42 of the 50 largest agencies. They include burglary, larceny, vehicle theft and arson.

There are theories for the decline, ranging from those that seem weird to those that ring true.

• Unleaded gasoline has reduced dangerous leaded emissions that made some children more impulsive and violent as they grew older.

• Legalization of abortion reduced the number of unwanted children who might have lower socio-economic success generations later.

• Children are living at home longer – with economic support – beyond their prime crime years.

• Better crime-mapping technology deploys patrols to high-risk areas. The explosion of cellphones leads to quicker calls for help. The proliferation of neighborhood watches deter crime.

Bob Stevenson, executive director of the Michigan Association of Police Chiefs, ticks off the various theories with ease.

“I don’t think there is one specific answer. It’s a combination of a lot of those,” said Stevenson, Livonia’s former police chief.

Certainly, police officers do more than respond to crime. They investigate vehicle crashes, enforce traffic laws, help roadside motorists, and assist at community events. But public safety is the highest priority.

Stevenson’s counterpart at the Michigan Association of Police union has a different theory about falling crime.

“I think that a lot of crime is going unreported. I think people are figuring, ‘What good does it do you?’” Executive Director Fred Timpner said. “A pizza delivery guy is faster than a police officer in a lot of locations.”

Too old to outlaw?

There is no doubt Michigan is aging, as is much of the United Sates. The tidal wave of post-World War II children are now filing for Social Security. Birth rates since then have not come close to matching Baby Boomers.

But Boomers, for the most part, no longer commit crimes. That is a youth thing. And Michigan has fewer youths.

FBI reports have documented the median age for criminals is younger than 30 for most crimes.

Of Michigan’s 9.9 million people, about 3.9 million were under age 30. In the previous census, about 4.2 million were under 30.

That alone cannot explain the overall drop in crime. But state demographer Kenneth Darga said it is a significant factor in Michigan and nationally.

“There has been a big reduction in arrest rates by age, but arrest rates are not quite the same thing as crime rates,” Darga said. “The important question is whether crime rates have gone down and whether arrest rates are dropping at the same rate or faster or more slowly than crime rates.”

The answer: Arrest rates are plummeting too.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, the number of murder arrests in the U.S. fell by half between 1990 and 2010. The arrest rates for rapes fell consistently to 59%.

More guns, less crime

Another factor must be considered. Michigan adults have more guns.

In 2001, Michigan made it much easier for residents to carry concealed handguns. Permits have risen ever since.

Last month, 405,408 adults could lawfully carry concealed handguns. That’s up from 53,000 after the first year of Michigan’s shall-issue law.

That means one in 17 adults 21 or older is licensed to carry. Countless more people have guns for sport and protection in their homes.

John Lott, an economist and national pro-firearms commenter, authored the book, “More Guns, Less Crime.”

”When you see the percent of the population with permits rising, and how Michigan has seen a very substantial increase over almost the same period of time (studied by MLive), you are looking at the fact that victims can defend themselves and also deter criminals, just as police can deter criminals,” Lott said.

This police evidence photo shows the stun gun a 17-year-old Lansing teen used in a random attack. The victim shot him with a legally concealed gun.

Consider this recent case in Lansing.

It was late afternoon on a warm spring day, and the teen wanted nothing more than to attack an innocent person, for fun. It was a game he and his friends played.

Stun gun in hand, the 17-year-old was not legally certified to have a weapon. His victim, 28, was licensed to carry.

A shot was fired. It was not yet 5 p.m. on May 29.

This is the 911 call the Lansing man made after he used his legally concealed handgun to shoot the teen who was attacking him. The audio breaks off as the man deals with events, but his father also calls police.

911 call















The would-be robber was hit in the buttocks. He begged for his life. The shooter called for police and stayed with him.

The teen was charged with possession of a Taser, a low-level felony.

The crime will not be among those in this year’s serious crime statistics.

-- Jessica Fleischman of MLive.com/The Saginaw News contributed to this report.

-- Email statewide projects coordinator John Barnes at jbarnes1@mlive.com or follow him on Twitter.