Some teams flourish, some fret and some freeze but there is nothing quite like the pressure-cooker that is the Championship play-offs, where promotion and almost £200m are at stake. By June, one of four reasonable heavyweights – Aston Villa, Derby, Fulham or Middlesbrough – will be back in the Premier League.

Four legs and a final, at Wembley, will decide who that is but until then, let the brave, often defeatist, meaningless rogue predictions, mind games and number crunching commence. Now is the time to be choked by cliche; how form is temporary, class is permanent and how head-to-head records and the state of the league table counts for nothing any more. Or does it?

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Last season, Huddersfield were promoted with a negative goal difference, while in 2007 Derby went up via the play-offs, despite winning only six of their final 15 games of the regular season. But since 1992, the inception of the play-off system in its current four-team format involving the teams between third and sixth, the third-placed team has the most favourable record. In those 26 seasons, the team that finished third has won promotion on nine occasions (35%), fourth, four times (15%), fifth, eight times (31%) and sixth, five times (19%). In the past 10 seasons, the third-placed side has won promotion on four occasions, most recently Norwich City in 2015.

Fulham finished third after blowing the chance to gain passage to the Premier League at Cardiff City’s expense but have the chance to redeem themselves when they travel to Derby County on Friday evening before the second leg at Craven Cottage on Monday. They are yet to win a play-off game in six attempts, two of which came last season against Reading. In the past 15 years, the race to win automatic promotion has gone down to the final day on five occasions, with the loser reaching the top flight via the play-offs just once; West Ham United, in 2012. Slavisa Jokanovic’s customary cool smacks of confidence, unsurprising given they were previously 23 games unbeaten, but in Derby, who finished sixth, they face a team that has reignited their own self-belief, trumpeting their own chances. “You can see they feel there is a little bit of extra zip, you can feel that bit of extra belief,” said Gary Rowett of his side. “We have almost been given a second chance and a side like that is going to be very dangerous.”

Fulham looked stuck in the mud last time out, uncharacteristically sloppy compared with their usual vigour; Ryan Sessegnon was shackled, Tom Cairney abnormally passive and Marcus Bettinelli, the goalkeeper, far too busy for Jokanovic’s liking. They are a wonderful team, but seem to struggle in one-off games, especially against more stubborn sides. Derby possess plenty of attacking threats, namely the Championship’s top scorer, Matej Vydra, but also that invaluable savvy streak and shed loads of experience.

In the other semi-final, fourth-place Aston Villa and fifth-place Middlesbrough will do battle. There are a few neat subplots; Albert Adomah and Adama Traoré facing their former clubs and Tony Pulis, the former West Bromwich Albion manager, renewing his rivalry with the claret and blue half of the West Midlands. Whether Traoré can shine against the club that brought him, from Barcelona B, to the country in 2015 will be particularly enticing. The speeding 22-year-old has lit up games that Middlesbrough have huffed and puffed their way through and, after the final game of the regular season, he had a clear message for fans. At full time at Portman Road, Traoré carried a black plastic blag towards a throng of young away supporters leant against the advertising hoardings, before handing out several shirts with his name and No 37 on the back, as well as the word “believe” underneath. Inspiring, yes, but Middlesbrough will need him and Patrick Bamford, another player rejuvenated under Pulis, firing if they are to overcome Villa.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Adama Traoré handed Middlesbrough fans shirts with his name, No 37 and the word ‘believe’ on the back after the final day draw at Ipswich. Photograph: Stephen Pond/Getty Images

Steve Bruce’s side have been planning in earnest, with his assistant, Colin Calderwood, admitting their staff have prepared a “vault” of information centred on Middlesbrough. They rested a host of players in readiness for the play-off matches –Jack Grealish, John Terry, and Lewis Grabban were among those given a breather in the defeat at Millwall – with the manager conscious of his players “running out of gas” at the end of a long season. “We will have done our homework and we have experienced players, without a doubt,” said Villa’s Conor Hourihane. “The names speak for themselves. We’ll be ready and we are all looking forward to it. Ultimately, it is a game of football.”

Talking points

• The Football League play-offs get under way at the Valley on Thursday evening, when Charlton Athletic host Shrewsbury Town. Charlton won their last three matches to sneak into sixth while Paul Hurst’s side, who topped League One in November, have won just one of their past seven matches. “It’s a lot of effort these lads have put in to get ourselves in a position we could only have dreamed of at the beginning,” Hurst said.

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• A 22-man squad arrived in Myanmar on Tuesday afternoon for Leeds United’s heavily criticised post-season tour, given the UN have accused the country of ethnic cleansing against its Rohingya Muslim minority. Billboards advertising the two matches carried the images of Ezgjan Alioski and Kemar Roofe, two of almost 20 first-team players who have not travelled.

• A Birmingham City fan is getting Garry Monk’s face tattooed on his derriere – after the manager dipped into his own pocket to part-fund it. Kevin Tomlinson said he would get Monk’s face inked on his bum if Birmingham beat Fulham on Sunday. “Just paid for it, pal! But just one condition: all bluenoses want to see the proof!” Monk, who donated £80, said on the GoFundMe page after Birmingham’s 3-1 win.

• Peterborough United preached experience last summer, signing Steven Taylor on a two-year deal. But, 51 appearances later, the former Newcastle defender has been placed on the transfer list, along with 12 other first-team players. “It is in the best interests of everyone,” said their manager, Steve Evans.

• Simon Grayson has capped a miserable season by departing Bradford City, seven months after being sacked at Sunderland. The 48-year-old led Bradford to mid-table after three wins in 14 matches and, after rejecting the chance to extend his contract, has walked away from the club.

• Either Boreham Wood or Tranmere Rovers will be playing in the Football League next season. The former, managed by 32-year-old Luke Garrard, have the lowest average attendance in the National League – 679 – while the latter boast the highest: 5,293. The teams meet at Wembley on Saturday.