It is almost seven years since the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange skipped bail and sought refuge in Ecuador’s London embassy. Now there are signs that the Assange case may be nearing a turning point. The immediate cause is a change in Ecuador’s attitude. Over the years, Ecuador’s ardour in support of Mr Assange has cooled for a variety of reasons, including shifting politics. Two months ago relations went into the deep freeze after private pictures of President Lenín Moreno and his family began appearing online, followed by the publication of papers that appear to implicate Mr Moreno in corruption, perjury and money laundering, which he has denied. A week ago, the president said Mr Assange was violating his asylum conditions. This was followed by repeated rumours that he would soon be leaving the embassy.

These events have not occurred in a global vacuum. Things have become more threatening for Mr Assange since Donald Trump succeeded Barack Obama in the White House two years ago. Ecuador’s economy is facing recession and mounting debt. It has just been bailed out by the IMF, to which the US is the largest contributor. Mr Trump has recently received the still-to-be-published Mueller report, which examined allegations that WikiLeaks was involved in publishing emails obtained by Russian hackers during the 2016 election. Mr Trump is also currently cutting a swath through the management of the US homeland security department, demanding tougher regimes against Latin American migrants and cybercriminals. All of this adds up to a more confrontational US stance towards countries like Ecuador and dissidents like Mr Assange.

The relative leniency of the late Obama years has given way to a more punitive approach to civil rights. In one of his last presidential acts, Mr Obama commuted the prison sentence imposed on the WikiLeaks whistleblower Chelsea Manning. Under Mr Trump, Ms Manning is again back in jail, serving an indeterminate sentence for refusing to give further evidence to a secret grand jury in a WikiLeaks investigation. She should be released immediately. Last November it became clear that Mr Assange has himself been charged in the US – though no details have yet appeared. The possibility that the US will try to have Mr Assange extradited is very real.

From first to last, the Assange case is a morally tangled web. He believes in publishing things that should not always be published – this has long been a difficult divide between the Guardian and him. But he has also shone a light on things that should never have been hidden. When he first entered the Ecuadorian embassy he was trying to avoid extradition to Sweden over allegations of rape and molestation. That was wrong. But those cases have now been closed. He still faces the English courts for skipping bail. If he leaves the embassy, and is arrested, he should answer for that, perhaps in ways that might result in deportation to his own country, Australia. Nothing about this is easy, least of all Mr Assange himself. But when the call comes from Washington, it requires a firm and principled no. It would neither be safe nor right for the UK to extradite Mr Assange to Mr Trump’s America.