Image: MIT

by Velina Tchakarova

“C omplexity by itself is not the catalyst in which a system might crash. Rather, it is how the complexity emerges in a system that determines whether that system will do what it was intended to do or morph into an unworkable organization clogged by bottlenecks and blockages.” In Defense of Chaos by L.K. Samuels (2013: 28).

Global affairs have become too complex and unpredictable, which is a combination sufficient to create a sense of imminent danger spreading fast among state and non-state actors. And yet, the world is not falling apart due to the growing complexity, as complexity itself does not trigger a system collapse. In fact, as Steven Pinker and Andrew Mack convincingly demonstrate in their article, the world has never experienced more peaceful times in the history of mankind. However, the Global Peace Index 2016 shows that the world has started becoming more violent and less equal in the last decade.

What is more important, the system of global affairs (Global System) is undergoing major transformation processes, which are being triggered by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, by the new modes of globalization as well as by the significant role of emerging powers, just to name a few. Indeed, there are already various analyses on the transformation processes and structures regarding e.g. the global finance, monetary, economy, trade, energy or international and regional institutions and organizations, whereas their focus is particularly being put either on the international, the regional or the state level, rather than being systematically captured. Inspired by a system analysis, however, I seek to extend the current knowledge by offering a system perspective on the Global System transformation.

Systems science has been developed for quite a long period of time and is generally being applied in various fields starting with engineering and physics to biology to social sciences, and even to psychology. Its comprehensive application is remarkable and thus it deserves a greater attention with regard to the analysis on the Global System. Moreover, system science encompasses scientific disciplines, interdisciplinary fields as well as theoretical approaches that explain and explore complex systems. One of the founders of General Systems Theory — the Austrian biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy — defines a system as a set of elements in mutual interactions, whereas the whole is more than the sum of its parts (1968: 18). The elements of a system can be again considered and analyzed as systems by themselves. Furthermore, the system has internal relationships with its elements (subsystems) as well as with its environment in order to receive and give feedback by input and output. To sum it up, a system, then, is a set of elements ‘that affect one another within an environment and form a larger pattern that is different from any of the parts’.

As an open system, the Global System receives information and interacts dynamically with its environment (nature and space) as well as with its interdependent components, which by themselves are systems of economic, political, natural, and social nature (Club of Rome, 1972: 9). All together, the Global System is characterized by its

“wholeness and interdependence (the whole is more than the sum of all parts), correlations, perceiving causes, chain of influence, hierarchy, suprasystems and subsystems, self-regulation and control, goal-oriented, interchange with the environment, inputs/outputs, the need for balance/homeostasis, change and adaptability (morphogenesis) and equifinality: there are various ways to achieve goals.”

Therefore, it appears to be of utmost importance to analyze the transformation processes within the subsystems of the Global System, particularly with regard to the triggering effects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution of cyber-physical systems as well as to modern globalization, in order to grasp the complexity of global affairs nowadays. Given the subsystems of the Global System — e.g. global finance, global monetary, global economy, global trade, global energy, international and regional institutions and organizations, climate, or even global diplomacy — are undergoing comprehensive changes, or even crises, one can not but expect major changes and unpredictable effects. What is even more remarkable — to put it in Schwab’s words — is the following:

“The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance.”

This means that complexity is further aggravated by the unprecedented speed and scope of changes with exponential pace, which will likely result either in the transformation of the Global System, and thus a paradigm shift, or in its collapse. Moreover, modern globalization has to be taken into account because it is the expansion model that has been introduced by each system power in the last two centuries while establishing a world dominance. This was the case of Great Britain in the 19th as well as of USA in the 20th century, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, while they were riding the wave of the Second Industrial Revolution (1870) respectively the Third Industrial Revolution (1970). Thus, it remains to be seen how modern globalization will be further shaped by the only system power left — the USA, and by an emerging second system power — China, as well as the rest of significant regional actors. Additionally, urgent issues of system hierarchy (who is determining the agenda of international norms, rules and standards of global affairs, especially when it comes to democracy, human rights and freedoms, and who is complying with them) as well as of a polarization of the Global System (bipolarity vs multipolarity) will be gaining more and more importance too. Obviously, system processes and structures have become too complex and unpredictable, which leaves us with a fundamental question: What comes next with regard to the Global System?

Against this background, it is quite apparent that there is no longer a single source of insecurity, that affects current global affairs, but rather it is a sum of interconnected risks and dangers, mostly of geopolitical and geoeconomic origin, which makes predictions almost impossible. A recent IMF report outlined various rising risks of comprehensive nature as based on a set of — e.g. financial turmoil, loss of confidence, falling oil prices, slowdown of economic growth, decline in capital inflows from emerging economies as well as shocks of non-economic origin such as geopolitical conflicts, terrorism or uncontrollable refugee flows.

In what follows, I will explore the warning signals with regard to major shifts and transitional changes within some of the most significant subsystems. By doing so, I will analyze indications for transformative moments in processes and structures that might trigger a comprehensive Global System transformation if any of its subsystems becomes dysfunctional or even collapses.