Brian Manzullo

Detroit Free Press

The forecast is in from Football Outsiders.

And the website’s statistical analysis says the Lions will finish 9-7 this coming fall — just outside the NFC Wild Card picture.

The Green Bay Packers win the NFC North at 12-4, while the Minnesota Vikings also finish 9-7 with the Lions. The Chicago Bears are last at 7-9.

Football Outsiders uses its “DVOA” metric, which “takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation,” and factors in other variables such as strength of schedule, offensive & defensive scheme changes and incoming & departing players.

“It’s a little surprising that our system doesn’t forecast more decline from the Detroit offense; the retirement of Calvin Johnson is offset by Detroit doing well in various small variables such as being a strong running team in the red zone,” writes Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders for ESPN.com. “That still leaves Detroit as a team projected to be very close to average on both sides of the ball, but it has the advantage of an easy schedule.”

Though the Lions and Vikings are tied at 9-7, Football Outsiders projects the Vikings as the sixth NFC Wild Card team (the 11-5 Seattle Seahawks are the other Wild Card).

The Arizona Cardinals, the No. 1 seed, are tied with the Packers at 12-4. The Dallas Cowboys (10-6) project as the winner of the NFC East, with the other three teams at 6-10. The defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers win the NFC South at 9-7.

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