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The Washington Capitals are near locks to make the playoffs this season. However, who the Washington Capitals will face in the first round is still up in the air. Depending on how they finish the regular season, the Washington Capitals could face any one of five teams in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They could face the New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, or New York Islanders.

Any one of those five teams could be a tough matchup for the Washington Capitals. They’re all extremely good teams. However, the Caps are also an extremely good hockey team. In the playoffs, you tend to face extremely good hockey teams.

Here are the probabilities of the Washington Capitals facing each of those teams in the first round of the playoffs as of April 3rd, 2015.

Over the next five days, we’ll take a look at each of the potential first round opponents for the Washington Capitals. Yesterday, we took a look at Tampa Bay. Today, we’ll take a look at the next least possible opponent for the Washington Capitals: the New York Rangers.

Washington Capitals Vs. New York Rangers

First off, let’s be real with ourselves, the Caps and Rangers are going to square off in the playoffs at some point. They haven’t been able to avoid each other in the postseason lately. It might not be in the first round, but it seems inevitable.

The Rangers are an extremely good hockey team with very few holes. Until Sunday’s win over the Rangers, the Capitals had struggled mightily against the Rangers. The Caps have a 1-2-0 record against the Rangers this season.

Despite the Rangers record, the Washington Capitals actually have better even strength puck possession numbers than the Rangers. At first, I thought score effects might have something to do with it, so I checked their even strength score adjusted CF%. The Caps have a 52.0% even strength score adjusted CorsiFor% while the Rangers have a 50.7% even strength score adjusted CorsiFor%. The Caps have an even strength score adjusted FenwickFor% of 51.9%, while the Rangers have an even strength score adjusted FenwickFor% of 50.4%. During close situations, the Washington Capitals have a 51.8% FenClose% while the Rangers have a 50% FenClose%. So despite the Rangers record, the Caps are actually the better puck possession team.

Probably the only glaring weakness of the Rangers right now is their power play. The Rangers have the 21st ranked power play (17.2%) in the NHL. It isn’t due to a lack of shot attempts, as the Rangers have the 12th highest CorsiFor60 during power plays (100.9) and they have the eighth highest ShotsFor60 during power plays (56.2). The reason that their power play is bad despite those numbers? Their shooting percentage. Their 10.4% shooting percentage during power plays is the third lowest in the NHL. The Rangers struggle to get bodies around the crease during power plays and Rick Nash doesn’t shoot it as often as he probably should on power plays. However, the Blackhawks have shown that you don’t need a great (or even good) power play in order to win in the playoffs. Still, when you get power play opportunities in the playoffs, it’s nice to convert.

Washington Capitals Vs. New York Rangers: Forwards

War On Ice is down, so no charts today. The New York Rangers’ forwards are led by veterans Nash, Derick Brassard, Martin St. Louis, and Mats Zuccarello. They also have a number of great younger forwards in Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, and Kevin Hayes. Carl Hagelin is one of the fastest forwards in the league and is especially dangerous when the Rangers are shorthanded. Hayes has killed the Washington Capitals this year. The Rangers forwards rely on their speed to tire out the opposing team. They’re very dangerous and always a threat to go on breakaways. They have an excellent forecheck that the Caps have struggled against this season. The Caps will have to counter that forecheck.

The Washington Capitals forwards are obviously led by Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, two of the best forwards in the NHL. Lately, they’ve been getting production from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Joel Ward, and the third line consisting of Eric Fehr, Jason Chimera, and Brooks Laich. While the Rangers rely heavily on speed, the Caps forwards rely on physicality and wearing down their opponents. That might help the Caps as the series prolongs.

ADVANTAGE: I’ll give the advantage to the Rangers. Their forwards are more explosive and they tend to make teams pay when they make mistakes. That said, the longer the series goes on, the more of an advantage the Caps forwards might have.

Washington Capitals Vs. New York Rangers: Defensemen

This is a really intriguing matchup. Both the Washington Capitals and the Rangers have great depth on their respective blue lines. The Rangers blue liners are led by their captain Ryan McDonagh. McDonagh and Dan Girardi usually match up against Ovechkin whenever he’s on the ice. They do about as good of a job as possible when defending the most dangerous shooter in the world. Marc Staal is a very good shutdown defenseman and has 18 points this season. Dan Boyle was supposed to be really good for the Rangers, but that hasn’t been the case. Kevin Klein has been a pleasant surprise for the Rangers this season. Keith Yandle has not saved the Rangers power play like he was supposed to, but he’s still one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL.

The Washington Capitals have gotten a ton of production from their blue line. John Carlson is the best Norris Trophy candidate that nobody’s talking about. Brooks Orpik has set the tone for the Caps blue line with his durability and physicality. His hits have led to countless scoring opportunities. Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner have been very steady as the second pairing. Niskanen is finally starting to get on the scoresheet, which is a very good thing for the Washington Capitals. The Caps have the best third pairing defenseman in the league in Mike Green. Green is flanked by Tim Gleason, who like Orpik, helps set the tone of the game with his crushing hits.

ADVANTAGE: I tried to justify giving one of the teams an advantage, and I couldn’t. They’re roughly even. The Caps blue liners have been playing better than the Rangers as of late, so if I had to give the advantage to someone, it would be the Caps.

Washington Capitals Vs. New York Rangers: Goaltenders

This is a matchup between two extremely handsome talented goaltenders. Braden Holtby and Henrik Lundqvist are two of the most gorgeous best goaltenders in the NHL. Holtby has the slight advantage in unadjusted save percentage and adjusted save percentage during all situations, while Lundqvist has the higher unadjusted save percentage at even strength.

ADVANTAGE: I give the slight advantage to Holtby because Lundqvist is still a bit rusty from his neck injury. As a whole, I give the advantage to the Rangers because Talbot is a much better goalie than Justin Peters.

Prediction

I’m fairly certain it’s a rule that any Washington Capitals versus New York Rangers playoff series must go to seven games. I think the Rangers have the better chance of winning assuming that they’re healthy. However, don’t count out the Washington Capitals. The best case scenario for the Caps would be if the Rangers play Boston in the first round and the Caps play the Rangers in the second round. Facing two extremely physical teams in consecutive series might be too much for the Rangers.