The government would almost certainly bail out major British universities in financial danger, although less prestigious institutions may not be so lucky, according to a leading credit ratings agency.

Moody’s, the international ratings agency, told its clients in a research note that its ratings of universities included a high probability that the government would intervene to prop up an institution in difficulty because of the potential disruption.

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The report comes despite Moody’s having placed negative warnings on the credit ratings of seven of the nine UK universities that have borrowed funds through international capital markets. Only Oxford and Cambridge are rated as stable by Moody’s.

Earlier this month the head of the higher education regulator in England, the Office for Students, said it would not bail out universities in the future. But shortly after, it emerged that the OfS had given a loan worth £900,000 to an unnamed university at risk of running out of cash during the summer.

Moody’s said the loan, which the OfS said was subsequently repaid in full, confirmed its view that the regulator and government would be more likely to offer help in the event of insolvency.

“This financial assistance supports our assumption of a high probability of extraordinary support for UK universities,” said Jeanne Harrison, a senior analyst at Moody’s. “Our view remains that government links with universities, the OfS’s remit to ensure continuity of education for students, and the economic importance of the university sector provide strong incentives for the government to act to prevent a default by a public university.

“Extraordinary support is not limited to financial support and encompasses any government intervention outside of the ordinary course of business to prevent the default of a university in financial distress. Most rated universities receive an uplift of one or two notches to their ratings as a result of our assumption of extraordinary support.”

According to Moody’s, both Cambridge and Oxford have a very high probability of government support in the event of financial problems, while the remaining universities – including Manchester and Cardiff – have a high probability of financial aid.

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“If we were to rate smaller, newer universities, we would likely continue to differentiate on our support assumption and apply a lower assumption for extraordinary support,” Harrison said.

Cambridge and Oxford enjoy the agency’s top Aaa credit rating, while Manchester has an Aa2 rating, two notches below. Liverpool, Southampton, Cardiff, De Montfort, Keele and Leeds have Aa3 ratings, along with a negative outlook for future credit ratings.

Moody’s said the negative outlooks were the result of sector-wide pressures, including declining numbers of school-leavers, uncertainty around student funding and tuition fees, and Brexit-related risks.

“Some rated universities are likely to post operating deficits as a result of these pressures over the next couple years,” the agency said, although it expected credit ratings to remain good thanks to manageable debts and the strong international reputation of UK universities.

Universities are also likely to face additional pension costs as the Universities Superannuation Scheme said it would carry out a new valuation of its position after institutions indicated they were willing to pay more to maintain the scheme.