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In a candid chat recently, one Conservative insider walked me through the pluses and minuses of the various leadership hopefuls whose names are most often bandied about, though none have officially registered to run. Leading the pack is former senior minister and party co-founder Peter MacKay, whom polls show will immediately become a front-runner should he enter, as he is widely expected to do.

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MacKay is affable, handsome and articulate. But he is no longer the fresh-faced youngster on the political scene. His record in cabinet was mixed. As Minister of Justice, he presided over a series of social-conservative-leaning bills that seemed pre-destined to run aground at the Supreme Court. At Defence, he stickhandled the F-35 fighter procurement deal that went supernova in 2012. It was Ambrose, you may remember, who was tasked with picking up the pieces.

Jason Kenney, Harper’s long-time minister-of-everything, remains a very influential force within the party. He is smart and terrifically industrious. But I’ve spoken to a series of senior Conservatives who say they can’t see him as leader, and certainly don’t see him seriously challenging Trudeau in 2019. Appearances and tone count; these two may have too much of a Kennedy-Nixon vibe going for such a faceoff to work in the Tories’ favour.

Tony Clement is competent, indefatigable, and has been a force in conservative circles since the Unite The Right days in the late ’90s. At Treasury Board, he pulled off the near-impossible; taking money away from other departments without becoming universally despised. But he suffers from some of the same drawbacks as Kenney; in a head-to-head contest with the Dauphin, he’ll look like the stodgy sedan next to the flashy convertible, though Clement is just 55.