The Iranian missile attack on two US bases in Iraq is symbolic retaliation for the US assassination of General Qassem Soleimani on 3 January.

Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei said there would be direct action against the US by the Iranian armed forces, and this has now happened. The message is that the Iranian leadership wants to de-escalate the crisis; the initial tweet from the US president Donald Trump after the attack indicates that he wants the same thing.

This does not mean that Iran will not respond later, using proxies to retain deniability and possibly against a US ally, as it did when making a devastating drone attack on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais on 14 September. But even this type of low level guerrilla warfare is not inevitable, since Iran has shown in the past that it wants to avoid a full-scale war with a militarily superior US.

The assassination of Soleimani clearly came as a shock to Tehran, and will have shaken confidence that Trump will not risk a war under any circumstances. After all, Soleimani paid with his life for miscalculating the degree of American anger over pin-prick Iranian attacks last year.

Iran is more likely to seek to exploit the assassination for political gain, notably by increasing its influence in Iraq and acting through third parties. It will look to the Iraqi government, parliament and political parties to demand that the 5,200 US troops leave the country. They have been there since 2014 for the purpose of helping the Iraqi armed forces fight Isis but, from the moment General Soleimani was killed, have been looking to their own defence.

Isis, seeking to revive itself after its destruction as a de facto state, is one clear beneficiary of the Soleimani assassination.

US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Show all 35 1 /35 US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures This photo released by the Iraqi Prime Minister Press Office shows a burning vehicle at the Baghdad International Airport following an airstrike in Baghdad, Iraq, early Friday 3 January AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures The wreckage of the car in which general Soleimani was travelling when a targeted US airstrike struck outside Baghdad International Airport on 3 January Ahmad Al Mukhtar via Reuters US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Demonstrators burn the US and British flags during a protest in Tehran after general Soleimani was killed in a targeted airstrike by American forces Reuters US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures A burning vehicle at the Baghdad International Airport following an airstrike. The Pentagon said Thursday that the US military has killed general Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force, at the direction of Donald Trump AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Protesters burn Israeli and US flags as thousands of Iranians take to the streets to mourn the death of general Soleimani at the hands of America EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Supporters of Donald Trump pray at an 'Evangelicals for Trump' campaign event held on the day following the killing of general Soleimani. At the event, the president praised the "flawless strike that eliminated the terrorist ringleader" AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures A huge procession of mourners gather in Baghdad for the funeral of general Soleimani on 4 January AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Thousands of Iranians take to the streets to mourn the death of Soleimani during an anti-US demonstration to condemn the killing of Soleimani, after Friday prayers in Tehran, Iran EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Iraqis perform a mourning prayer for slain major general Qasem Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards at the Great Mosque of Kufa AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures A billboard reading 'Death to America and Israel', installed by Iran-backed shiite armed groups at a street in Jadriyah district in Baghdad, Iraq EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows him visiting the family of Soleiman KHAMENEI.IR/AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Thousands of Iranians take to the streets in Tehran EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Pakistani Shiite Muslims burn a mock of a US flag as they hold pictures of General Qasem Soleimani during a protest against the USA, outside the US Consulate in Lahore, Pakistan EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Iran's Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Jalal Feiruznia, looks to a portrait of Soleimani, as he receives condolences at the Iranian embassy, in Beirut, Lebanon AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures People make their way on the street while a screen on the wall of a cinema shows a portrait Soleimani in Tehran AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Aziz Asmar, one of two Syrian painters who completed a mural following the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani poses next to his creation in the rebel-held Syrian town of Dana in the northwestern province of Idlib AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures A demonstration in Tehran AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures An anti-US demonstration to condemn the killing of Soleimani, after Friday prayers in Tehran EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Mujtaba al-Husseini, the representative of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivers a speech in the holy shrine city of Najaf AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Pakistani Shiite Muslims burn a mock of a US and Israeli flags as they hold pictures of General Qasem Soleimani during a protest against the USA, outside the US Consulate in Lahore, Pakistan EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Protesters demonstrate in Tehran AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Pakistani Shi'ite Muslims hold pictures of General Qasem Soleimani during a protest against the USA, in Peshawar, Pakistan EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Protesters, holding a photograph of the leader of the People's Mujahedin of Iran Massoud Rajavi, outside Downing Street in London PA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Protesters burn a US flag in Tehran AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures A Syrian man offers sweets to children to mark the killing AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Iranian worshippers attend a mourning prayer for Soleimani in Iran's capital Tehran AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Kashmiri Shiite Muslims shout anti American and anti Israel slogans during a protest AP US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Iranian worshipers chant slogans during Friday prayers Reuters US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures A protest against the USA, in Islamabad, Pakistan EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Iranians burn a US flag in Tehran EPA US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran in Germany (NWRI) protest outside Iran's embassy in Berlin, Germany Reuters US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran in Germany (NWRI) protest outside Iran's embassy in Berlin Reuters US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Iranian worshippers in Tehran AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Vehicles of the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol a road in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Kila near the border with Israel. Following morning's killing of Major General Qasem Soleimani, Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah movement called for the missile strike by Israel's closest ally, to be avenged AFP via Getty US airstrike kills Iran's Qassem Soleimani: Fallout in pictures Iranian women take to the streets in Tehran EPA

Even if US troops stay for the moment, they will have a status near to that of hostages since many are in indefensible compounds in the middle of Iraqi military bases. The willingness of Iraqi security to defend American personnel is dubious, as was demonstrated when Iraqi troops in the Green Zone in Baghdad stood aside last week to let pro-Iranian paramilitary marchers enter the US embassy.

Iran will already have made significant political gains from this crisis as long it does not now overplay its hand and seek to humiliate the US. Street protests in Iran sparked by a rise in fuel prices last November led to the security forces killing at least 304 protesters, according to Amnesty International. Who would have expected that the next big street event in Iranian cities would be millions of people gathering for the funeral of the second most important figure in the government that had been doing the killing?

These were mourners, moreover, calling for vengeance against the US; protesters had previously blamed their leadership for wasting resources on foreign adventures such as those carried out by Soleimani. It is impossible to judge how far the Iranian leadership as been re-legitimised by the recent rising of tensions, but it is in a stronger position domestically to withstand the tough times resulting from US sanctions without the fear of a popular revolt.

In Iraq, there will be many who will be pleased to see the end of Soleimani, who ordered the violent repression of protests over jobs and government corruption since last October; since then, no fewer than 500 protesters have been killed and as many as 20,000 injured.

But Iraqi protesters, too, have had the ground cut from under their feet because US interference in Iraq has just outpaced Iranian interference. Protesters will be accused of attacking a government that is seeking to defend Iraqi sovereignty. No Iraqi leader will want to be portrayed as pro-American. The pro-Iranian paramilitaries can present themselves as staunch patriots and not as Iranian proxies.