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With better organization in the latest forecast, Tropical Storm Lane is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday and could become a major hurricane on Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. But at 2,200 miles away from the Hawaiian Island chain, the system is still too far away to determine effects, if any, it will have on the state.

A 5 p.m. forecast discussion states that the latest forecast “indicates Lane intensifying into a category 3 hurricane in 3 days.”

At 5 a.m. HST on Wednesday, Aug. 15, 2018, the center of TS Lane was located 1,350 miles SW of the Southern tip of Baja California within the jurisdiction of the National Hurricane Center.

In relation to Hawaiʻi, the storm is located: 2060 miles ESE of Hilo; 2140 miles ESE of Hāna; 2175 miles ESE of Kahului; and 2265 miles ESE of Honolulu (near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 125.6 West).

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TS Lane is moving toward the west near 13 mph, a motion that forecasters say is expect to continue for the next couple of days, with a turn to the WNW forecast to occur on Friday.

According to the latest forecast track, Lane is expected to be about 520 miles ESE of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (15.2 N, -149.3 W) with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph by around 2 p.m. HST on Monday, Aug. 20, 2018.

“The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone to the west or west-northwest throughout the period,” according to the latest forecast discussion released by the NHC.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

Saffir-Simpson Scale

Tropical Storm – winds 39-73 mph

Category 1 – winds 74-95 mph

Category 2 – winds 96-110 mph

Category 3 – winds 111-129 mph

Category 4 – winds 130-156 mph

Category 5 – winds 157 mph and up