Donald Trump at a rally in Buffalo, NY. | AP Photo/John Minchillo Poll shows Trump losing support among home-state Republicans Other Republicans on ballot could be in trouble

ALBANY — Democrat Hillary Clinton continues to enjoy a commanding lead in the presidential race in New York, according to a Siena Research Institute poll of registered voters conducted last week.

She’s beating Republican Donald Trump by 57-27 in a one-on-one matchup and 50-25 when third-party candidates are factored in. And while her favorability rating continues to be low — 51 percent of voters view her favorably and 46 percent unfavorably — it’s far better than Trump’s 24-72.


Those numbers are to be expected, because the state both candidates call home is solidly blue. What is surprising, however, is how poorly Trump is polling among members of his own party in his home state, according to the poll. He enjoys the support of barely half of New York’s Republicans, which has the potential to inflict serious damage on other Republicans running in New York in November.

Clinton’s support among New York’s Democrats is comparable to the numbers President Barack Obama received at this point in both of his presidential campaigns. In a Siena poll conducted during Obama’s first campaign, Democrats planned to vote for him over Sen. John McCain 77-12. Four years later, Democrats planned to vote for him by a margin of 83-14.

The poll released Monday found Clinton at 81-10 among Democrats.

In August 2008, McCain had the backing of New York Republicans by a margin of 69-16 over Obama at this point in the cycle. In 2012, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was winning his fellow Republicans 65-31.

As of late June, Trump’s support was similar: Siena found him at 68-21 among the GOP.

But over the following six weeks, his support among New York Republicans plummeted.

When only Clinton and Trump were named in the poll, 55 percent of Republicans said they’d vote for him, with 24 percent choosing to back the former secretary of state and 9 percent saying they won’t vote. (Only 3 percent of Democrats said they don’t plan on casting a ballot).

Trump's numbers are worse when third-party candidates included. In that scenario, only 52 percent of Republicans said they planned to vote for Trump, 20 percent would back Clinton, and 9 percent said they would support Libertarian Gary Johnson. Even Jill Stein of the Green Party got 4 percent of Republicans.

Trump's polling among Republicans was lackluster on a variety of issues. Only half said he’d be better than Clinton on “addressing tensions between the police and communities of color,” 53 percent think he’d make a better commander-in-chief, and 56 percent believe he’d work better with Congress.

There’s time for Trump to turn around his campaign, but if a significant number of Republicans continue to view him unfavorably, it could be disastrous for other Republicans on the ballot.

Presidential election years already tend to be difficult for the GOP in New York. The past two presidential election years are the only two since 1964 that a majority of victorious state Senate candidates ran as Democrats: the party picked up two seats in 2008 and four in 2012.

In 2012, six Republicans won with less than 53 percent of the vote. If the current numbers hold steady over the next 12 weeks and a sizable percentage of the Republicans who don’t like their own candidate wind up staying home, it’s feasible Democrats could be competitive in several seats beyond the small number that currently appear to be winnable.

One other finding from the poll that may be worthy of note: Members of both parties agree about who would do a better job as first spouse. Bill Clinton enjoys the support of 87 percent of Democrats to Melania Trump’s 7 percent; Republicans chose Clinton by a margin of 46-42.

