Mike Davis

@byMikeDavis

It's a doomsday scenario for the thousands of New Jersey commuters who arrive by bus at the Port Authority Bus Terminal each day.

What would happen if a new terminal were built in New Jersey?

The current facility is on its last legs, too small and old to handle ridership that's expected to reach nearly 350,000 daily within the next 25 years. And while it's more than likely a new terminal would be built nearby, New York officials haven't completely dismissed building it across the river.

Though experts believe it’s “highly unlikely,” building a bus terminal in the Garden State would create a nightmare for bus commuters that already spend as much as $496 each month for the opportunity to sit in Lincoln Tunnel traffic for a few hours each day.

MORE: Port Authority eyes new bus terminal

"There would be no good way to get people across the Hudson River, except to take them out of a bus and put them on another bus," said Martin Robins, a former NJ Transit executive and director emeritus of the Voorhees Transportation Center at Rutgers University.

On average, more than 78,000 riders board NJ Transit buses at the terminal each weekday. If the Port Authority built a bus hub across the river, those commuters would face a two-seat ride in order to get to Manhattan, requiring multiple timetables, transfers and two sets of possible delays.

“A two-seat ride can only be sold to the public if it truly can reduce commute times, and if the system is reliable and can handle projected future capacity,” New Jersey Commuters Action Network co-founder Liam Blank said.

Earlier this summer, Port Authority officials reportedly settled on a location a few blocks west of the current terminal and pledged to allocate funding for the project in its 2016-27 capital plan.

But that deal fell apart last month, when New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo reportedly pressured the Port Authority's New York appointees to back away from the bus terminal project, in favor of putting more money toward renovating La Guardia Airport.

At the same time, a group led by U.S. Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D-New York, reignited opposition to the plan, accusing Port Authority chairman John Degnan, appointed by Gov. Chris Christie, of "pushing through" the Port Authority Bus Terminal plan.

New Jersey legislators have since come to Degnan's side and called for the New York delegation to go forward with plans for the West Side terminal.

MORE: NJ politicians renew support for NYC terminal

“Fighting with New York to make sure that New Jersey’s needs are not shortchanged by the Port Authority is not new for those of us on this side of the Hudson,” said Senate Majority Loretta Weinberg, D-Bergen.

The ideal location, according to Robins, is to simply build on top of the current location: Even the previously-agreed-upon location a few blocks west is enough to disrupt commutes for riders who use the terminal's Subway connections.

That concept has been largely dismissed by the Port Authority, as experts have said it would be impossible to create enough temporary bus infrastructure to handle demand during the construction of a new terminal.

Meanwhile, New York officials have derided building a new terminal anywhere near the current location and the state's Port Authority appointees had advocated for a pair of smaller terminals, one in New York and one in New Jersey.

EDITORIAL: Move ahead with new bus terminal

"New Yorkers aren't thinking like transportation planners," Robins said. "They're thinking about people who just want to get rid of a facility they don't see any value in.

"It's a very superficial discussion and that's why it goes nowhere," he said.

Blank is not against the idea of a Secaucus-based bus terminal, but it would have to be a small part of a broader approach. Planning the future of the Port Authority Bus Terminal must be done in conjunction with the expansion of Penn Station New York and Amtrak's $20 billion Gateway Program to build two new rail tunnels, increasing train capacity between New Jersey and New York.

MORE: Feds agree to pay half of Gateway tunnels

But it also requires turning Secaucus into more than simply a bus station and NJ Transit train station. Blank suggested expanding PATH service to both Secaucus and MetLife Stadium, in addition to reviving a decades-old plan to extend the no. 7 Subway to Secaucus.

"We have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity," he said.

Mike Davis: 732-643-4223; mdavis@gannettnj.com