November 21, 2019

The winter holiday season unofficially began on the first weekend of November and so far performance at the box office has been less than acceptable. That needs toâand shouldâturn around this weekend. According to most industry trackers, Frozen II should break records. Its reviews are far from award-worthy, but they are great for a family film. On the other hand, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoodâs reviews are award-worthy and the film should have really long legs, especially if major nominations start rolling in. Finally, 21 Bridges has the weakest reviews and the lowest box office potential of the three wide releases this week. This weekend last year was led by the one-two punch of Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II. Frozen II should easily earn more than those twoâs combined $92 million. Unfortunately, last year there were four films that topped $20 million over the weekend, while this year there will be only one. Last yearâs depth will likely result in 2019 losing yet another weekend in the year-over-year competition. At least it should be close.

Frozen II will open faster than the original Frozenâs $67.4 million Friday to Sunday wide opening. Frozen II should also have no trouble earning more than Frozenâs $93.6 million 5-day Thanksgiving (which remains the second-best of all time). In fact, on the high end, Frozen II could earn more this weekend than its predecessor earned in its first three weeks in theaters. Its reviews arenât going to be as large of a selling point as the first filmâs were, but they are still great for a family film. Frozen II should also benefit from a lack of competition, both in terms of direct competition and overall competition. The only other family film in the top ten will be Playing with Fire, which will make less during the full weekend than this film will make during previews. Meanwhile, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood will be a distant second place, at best. Most people think Frozen II will earn at least $100 million over the next three days, while it has the potential to top $135 million. I think the pent-up demand for a monster hit will help the movie open on the high end of expectations with $125 million over the weekend.

It should be a close race for second place between A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Ford v Ferrari. So close, in fact, that the pair will likely switch places over the weekend. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoodâs award-worthy reviews should be a major asset at the box office, while Fred Rogers was the subject of the very popular documentary, Wonât You Be My Neighbor?. That film made more than $20 million, which is amazing for a documentary. It is very likely more than this film will earn during its opening weekend, as the film is on track for between $14 million and $18 million. I can see it being a surprise hit, with a $20-million start, and a run that keeps it in wide release until after the new year; however, the overall weakness of the box office means it is wise to be a little more conservative and Iâm going with second place at $17 million.

Ford v Ferrari will be right behind, also with $17 million. It will have strong legs thanks it its stellar reviews and the lack of direct competition. On the other hand, the movie cost nearly $100 million to make and it isnât matching expectations internationally, so it will need stellar legs to break even any time soon.

21 Bridges has the weakest reviews and the lowest box office buzz and I fear it will slip between the cracks. It could open with close to $14 million, but it could also open below $10 million. Iâm going with just over $10 million, as the box office hasnât been kind to films like this recently.

Midway should round out the top five with just over $5 million. The film was more expensive to make than initial reports, so it will need help to break even any time soon, but long legs will help its cause.

C.S.Strowbridge