If you look at the Drudge Report, you’ll be treated to a series of headlines underscoring what seems to be an imminent Democratic collapse in the elections next week. However, the elections are far closer than was expected a few months ago—so close that the Main Stream Media is tentatively discussing the possibility that the Democratic Party may actually hold on to the Senate. [ A.B. Stoddard: What If Dems win? by A.B. Stoddard, The Hill, October 23, 2014]

While that’s unlikely, the fact that it’s even a possibility at this point testifies to the continuing inability of the Beltway Right to capitalize on Barack Obama’s unpopularity and its refusal to do what Ann Coulter suggested—make the election a referendum on the President’s efforts to boost illegal immigration.

The biggest danger sign for Republicans: their mediocre share of the white vote in many elections. While the MSM hyperventilates about the Hispanic vote and Beltway Right consultants fantasize about breaking away a chunk of the black vote, the plain fact fact is that the GOP is almost entirely dependent on the white (formerly, i.e. before 1965, known as American) vote. Which is extraordinary, considering the almost open contempt with which the Republican Party treats its base.

VDARE.com ‘s rule of thumb: the GOP has to get the 60% of the white vote that it got in the 2010 TeaParty midterms. (Less easy to gauge, it also has to get a reasonable white turn-out, which Romney failed to do in 2012). But note that, while a 60% GOP white share is OK nationally, it’s not good enough in the South, where the GOP starts at a disadvantage because of the large black populations and must compensate among whites (which it generally does—88% of Mississippi’s whites voted for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012).

This year, in the generic Congressional ballot, Republicans only have a two-point lead over the Democrats, 43% to 41%. Incredibly, the GOP has even failed to win a decisive majority of the white vote, only posting a 49% to 35% lead with 16% undecided. [Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 41% — Full Demographic Detail, Rasmussen, October 20-26, 2014]

Nevertheless, nobody except VDARE.com seems very interested in the white vote. So here’s a breakdown of the white vote in every significant Senate race that will be decided next Tuesday.

Methodological points: The demographic details from Rasmussen polls are behind a paywall that can only be accessed after purchasing a Platinum Service subscription. You can buy such a subscription here.

Obviously, not all of these numbers add up to 100%. Though these polls include “leaners,” the figures used for comparison don’t always include undecided voters or those voting for third parties. In some cases, as in North Carolina, Libertarians are taking more votes away from the Republican and may act as spoilers. However, in most cases, third party support is negligible.

While undecided voters are critical, many of them may decide not to vote. However, if the GOP can’t poll over fifty percent of the white vote this late in the election season, it bodes ill for their chances for victory.

Tossups

According to ABC, there are five races that are still a tossup with one week to go [Where Things Stand With the Senate: ABC News Election 2014 Race Ratings, by Rick Klein and Noah Weiland, ABCNews, October 27, 2014]. They include Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and Louisiana.

Already, just the fact that states like Georgia and Kansas are up for grabs is a pretty good indicator the Republican Party is not doing as well as it should.

Lean Democratic

ABC News has two states that it classifies as “Lean Democratic,” including New Hampshire and North Carolina.

New Hampshire: Democratic Incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen versus Republican Scott Brown. This race is actually a “toss-up” now, as a recent poll has former Senator Scott Brown inching ahead by just over a point. [Registered Likely NH Voters, New England College Polling Center, October 24, 2014] The poll does not have a racial breakdown, but the overwhelmingly white electorate in New Hampshire suggests that Brown does not have a commanding lead in the white vote. The RealClearPolitics aggregate still has Shaheen ahead by more than two points as of October 28, 2014. A NewYorkTimes/CBSNews/YouGov poll taken from October 16-23 has Shaheen ahead by five points, with Shaheen actually winning the white vote by six points, 46% to 40% . Other races have such a small sample size in the poll no racial breakdown is provided for them. Dubious.

This race is actually a “toss-up” now, as a recent poll has former Senator Scott Brown inching ahead by just over a point. [Registered Likely NH Voters, New England College Polling Center, October 24, 2014] The poll does not have a racial breakdown, but the overwhelmingly white electorate in New Hampshire suggests that Brown does not have a commanding lead in the white vote. The RealClearPolitics aggregate still has Shaheen ahead by more than two points as of October 28, 2014. A NewYorkTimes/CBSNews/YouGov poll taken from October 16-23 has Shaheen ahead by five points, with Shaheen actually winning the white vote by six points, Other races have such a small sample size in the poll no racial breakdown is provided for them. Dubious. North Carolina: Democratic Incumbent Senator Kay Hagan versus Republican Thom Tillis. Tillis is competing with Ed Gillespie for the Worst GOP Senate Candidate this election cycle as he barely is winning the white vote in this Southern state and continues to lose the election. Tills is only winning 53% of the white vote, compared to Hagan’s 36%. Appalling.

Lean Republican

West Virginia (Open Seat): Republican Shelley Moore Capito versus Democrat Natalie Tennant. This open seat is a likely flip for the GOP, as incumbent Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller is retiring. The Republican Capito has a 57% to 34% lead in the white vote and a 56% to 34% lead overall in the NYT/CBS/YouGov poll taken October 16-23. According to NumbersUSA, Capito has a lifetime rating of B+, with her biggest weaknesses an indifference towards challenging the status quo and being open to bringing in more foreign workers. OK

There are four races that ABC News considers “Likely Democratic.” These are some missed chances for the GOP in Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, and Virginia.Finally, among other competitive races, there’s one “likely Republican” race – West Virginia.This list does not include “safe seats” where there is no chance of an upset. These include Republican strongholds like Alabama (where the heroic Jeff Sessions is running unopposed in the general election and was unopposed in the primary) [ Jeff Sessions makes history by being unopposed for U.S. Senate, and re-election campaign is in no hurry , by Jim Stinson, AL.com, July 25, 2014]. Other states include Montana, where the GOP caught a lucky break when the main Democratic candidate had to withdraw. [ Democrats face a steep climb in Montana Senate race , by Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight, August 7, 2014]

However, it also doesn’t include like New Jersey and Illinois where the GOP almost seemed to surrender before the campaign even began by sticking to a conventional (and unpopular) Beltway Right platform.

To use these two racially diverse states as representative:

New Jersey: Democratic Incumbent Senator Cory Booker versus Republican Jeff Bell. Cory Booker is cruising to re-election here, as the NYT/CBS/YouGov poll from October 16-23 shows him with a 51-39 lead. Bell is holding a 47-43 advantage among whites with 9% undecided and another 1% going to another candidate. Even including undecided, Bell can’t hope to win New Jersey unless he has a white majority (over 50% support) from white voters at this point in the election.

Cory Booker is cruising to re-election here, as the NYT/CBS/YouGov poll from October 16-23 shows him with a 51-39 lead. Bell is holding a with 9% undecided and another 1% going to another candidate. Even including undecided, Bell can’t hope to win New Jersey unless he has a white majority (over 50% support) from white voters at this point in the election. Illinois: Democratic Incumbent Senator Dick Durbin versus Republican Jim Oberweis Dick Durbin has already secured a majority in the latest NYT/CBS/YouGov poll from October 16-23, winning the election 52-39. Republican Jim Oberweis only has a one point lead in the white vote, 46% to 45%. 9% are undecided and 1% are voting for a third party.

These startlingly similar case studies show that in states where the GOP isn’t even competitive, it comes from their inability to secure the white vote. Even though many of the undecided voters may not vote, Republicans need to be polling above 50% in the share of the white vote by late October if they want any hope not just of winning the election, but of keeping it close.

Bottom line: Steve Sailer has shown on VDARE.com that even if America’s immigration disaster continues, the GOP (in its role of GAP—“Generic American Party”) can continue to win national elections through 2050 by increasing its share of the white vote—which VDARE.com refers to as “The Sailer Strategy.”

In the 2010 Tea Party midterms, it appeared that this process had begun. But Conservatism Inc. threw away the fruits of the Tea Party victory. As of late October 2014, the ground lost has not been regained.

James Kirkpatrick [Email him] is a Beltway veteran and a refugee from Conservatism Inc.