Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May and European Council President Donald Tusk look relaxed ahead of this week's EU Summit | Leon Neal/AFP via Getty Images Brexit crunch that never comes This week’s European Council summit was meant to be a milestone in the UK’s exit from the European Union. It won’t be.

LONDON — With Brexit, D-Day is always tomorrow.

This week’s European Council summit, like many before it and several parliamentary showdowns that failed to deliver much-anticipated fireworks, was supposed to be a big moment in the U.K.'s journey to the EU exit door.

European leaders, most prominently Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney had billed it as the deadline for “definitive progress” on the vexed question of the Irish border which, if missed, could jeopardize the entire negotiation.

Not so.

The U.K. has still only half-proposed its alternative "backstop" for avoiding a hard border. Prime Minister Theresa May’s top team are yet to agree the second half (the Cabinet will come together for another crunch meeting at May’s country residence Chequers toward the end of next week.)

There might be a little bit of sniping [at the summit], but Brexit is not top of their agenda. The ball is back in our court" — Senior U.K. official

British government officials expect some “finger wagging” from EU leaders and draft summit conclusions obtained by POLITICO note “concern” at the lack of “substantial progress” on Ireland. That’s the stick. The carrot, in the same draft, is a reminder from the EU that if the U.K.'s red lines were to “evolve,” the EU would reconsider its trade offer.

But on the whole, don’t expect Brexit to feature heavily on Thursday and Friday. The main U.K.-Brussels action will be the England vs. Belgium World Cup tie, which will kick off about the same time leaders sit down to dinner.

British officials say the EU is too distracted by the migration crisis to waste political energy turning the screw on the Brits.

The pre-summit run-up has been “more stable than could have been envisaged,” said one senior U.K. figure working on Brexit, speaking on condition of anonymity. “There might be a little bit of sniping [at the summit],” said the official, “but Brexit is not top of their agenda. The ball is back in our court.”

In other words, attention at the top of the U.K. government is focused on Chequers, not Brussels.

Chequers talks

That said, don’t expect Chequers to be the final crunch point either. The Brexit talks can’t proceed until the U.K. and the EU agree a backstop solution to avoid, in any circumstances, a hard border on the island of Ireland.

The U.K. has only proposed a customs element of the backstop (which got a frosty reception in Brussels) and hasn't made a formal proposal yet on the other main basket of issues relating to regulatory alignment on product standards.

While the first U.K. official said there was “speculation” the Cabinet was about to solve the regulatory alignment question by signing up wholesale to the idea of a “single market in goods,” but not services, they added ministers would need to debate the extent to which goods could really be regarded independently from services. A second official talked down the prospects of a major new policy direction emerging from Chequers next week.

High levels of alignment with EU rules on goods have, in any case, been signaled by May’s government since the Mansion House speech in March, and the language of the U.K.’s white paper on the future relationship — expected the week beginning 9 July — is likely to be similar, on this topic, to that text.

The white paper is key because it lays out for the first time since the referendum two years ago, the government's detailed negotiating position on what kind of future relationship it wants with the EU across a range of policy areas. The first official said the paper had been through “many iterations,” but there is expectation across government that Chequers should produce Cabinet agreement, if not on regulatory alignment, then at least on which customs arrangement will go into the white paper.

That would finally end the tortuous debate among May’s ministers about the relative advantages of two proposed models known as “the new customs partnership” (which maintains many elements of the existing EU customs union) and “maximum facilitation,” which involves smoothing the border with new technology. The most likely outcome, both officials indicated, is that the latter option will win out.

The next big domestic moment that May’s government is preparing for is a vote on an amendment to the Trade Bill (a piece of Brexit preparation legislation) calling on the government to pursue a customs union with the EU as part of its negotiating strategy. One senior MP in the pro-EU wing of the Conservative party, described this vote, due before the summer recess begins on July 24, as the “real crunch point,” after many would-be rebels backed away from voting against the government on the EU (Withdrawal) Bill last week.

But senior officials believe this too could pass without too much trouble. The theory is that some soft-Brexiteer Tory MPs will be dissuaded from rebelling because they believe the government's backstop proposal for a partial customs union will be the plan that is ultimately pursued.

Business warnings

Once these three milestones — Chequers, the white paper, and the Trade Bill vote — are cleared, the U.K. is hoping to press ahead quickly. That's something a growing chorus of businesses, from Airbus to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, has been calling for in recent days.

U.K. officials, for their part, say they are hopeful the talks can speed up over the summer and into the fall.

A further appeal for urgency came overnight on Tuesday in a rare joint statement from British and EU business groups and unions calling on both the U.K. and EU to “inject pace” into the negotiations.

"Decisions will be needed in June and October to finalize the withdrawal agreement and the transitional arrangement, and put economic interests and people’s jobs, rights and livelihoods first,” the statement from the heads of the Confederation of British Industry, BusinessEurope, the Trades Union Congress, and the European Trade Union Confederation said. “Amid uncertain times, we appeal to negotiators on both sides to put jobs and prosperity before politics when seeking solutions that will matter for generations to come.”

U.K. officials, for their part, say they are hopeful the talks can speed up over the summer and into the fall, with agreement on the withdrawal deal still possible by EU negotiator Michel Barnier’s October deadline.

Whether they are right depends on the extent to which the U.K. can emerge from this summit reprieve in June and use the time to decide what it wants.