The Kings' superior possession game is in some ways a product of their defensive group, and in others, a strong team system built around shot differentials. For the past 5 years, the Kings have led the league in CF%. With a statistically higher probability to outscore there opponents on a nightly basis, Los Angeles has seen this translate into a top-10 goal differential and more wins. This unrivalled statistical success has trickled down to the individual skaters on the Kings roster, who have seen their positive impact remain well above league average. The adjustments we at PBF make for situational zone advantage put a dent in some of these outwardly stats, but they impact so many players that consideration has to be given to the possibility of an over-correction.

The cause of such a jump lies in the outrageously high team-wide offensive zone start percentages. You cannot find a single every night player who starts in the offensive zone less than the defensive one. To show how such a factor impacts our statistical measures, we'll use a fringe protection list player like Brayden McNabb as our example. His CF% sits at a team high 60.25%, placing him 3rd in the entire league for players who've logged a minimum of 200 minutes. I'm not sure about the rest of you, but McNabb's name isn't exactly rolling off my tongue as Norris trophy candidate. Instead his face-off dependent zone starts provide him with such a high probability for on-ice shot production by mere proximity to the opposing team's net over his own, that his shot differentials are expectedly over-inflated in comparison to his real impact on puck possession. Breaking down his face-off percentages from last season we see him start in the neutral zone - are area of equal probability for positive and negative impact - a standard 33.73%, a minimal 23.09% in the defensive zone, and a whopping 43.18% in the offensive. Those who take his stats at face value without adjustment see only an efficient puck possession player, whereas those who attribute situational factors upon it, gain a better glimpse at his actual impact.

From our perspective, with such profound opportunity for offensive success, his dismal 4 points in 49 games and 50% goal differential speaks to a player that struggles offensively despite intense opportunity, and may be restricted solely to a shut-down role. Whether he's an example of an effective system based player or capable of much more than that is open for opinion, but we stand on the side of the former.

Trade in the works?

The Kings will look back on the expansion draft with deep regret if they don't at least attempt to negotiate a trade with Vegas involving Dustin Brown or Marian Gaborik. They need to rid themselves of at least one of the aging wingers this summer without adding another contract to their buy-out imposed cap hit (re Mike Richards). Such a deal won't come cheap and will likely mean giving up more than what's available on expansion draft night, but long-term this is the best move. Ideally the Kings should try to preserve the few quality prospects present in their development system (ex. Kyle Clague), but if moving one is required to get a deal done with a big contract attached it seriously needs to be considered.

From King to Knight

Under the 8-1 structure, the Golden Knights could be left with a decision between bottom-6 forwards Kyle Clifford, Trevor Lewis, Nick Shore, and Nic Dowd.

The two vets in Clifford and Lewis carry reasonable price tags - 1.6M and 2.0M a piece - and bring playoff experience in checking roles. Although age may be a consideration, advanced stats seems to favour the elder statesmen of the group in Trevor Lewis. His strong 53.2 AdjCF% accounts for his ability to drive shot production no matter the on-ice scnenario. His overall offensive prowess may be limited, but his value lies in creating opportunity for others by driving play into the opposing team's zone.

Kyle Clifford provides a rough and tumble style of play for a 4th line contributor. He possess enough skill to be seen as more than a fighter, and isn't afraid to play the agitator role. As an absolute pain in the ass to play against, Vegas could look his way if little is available from the Kings roster, but in our opinion, enough value will be seen elsewhere.

An underrated offensive talent like Nic Dowd could be an interesting selection with more long term projection but thus far has struggled greatly with goal differential and still has quite a ways to go in adapting to life as an NHL centremen.

Nick Shore, another young option, has displayed clear scoring ability at the American league level (2014-15: 42pts in 38 games), but has contributed at a significantly lower rate in his past two seasons with the big club. RFA status this summer pushes him off out of our selection argument as he would take up one of Vegas' 10 non-contracted selection spots.