What to know for election day and early voting

Dana Ferguson | Argus Leader

Megan Raposa, mraposa@argusleader.com

Briana Sanchez / Argus Leader

It's a dead heat.

Two weeks ahead of the South Dakota general election, two gubernatorial hopefuls are tied, according to a poll commissioned by the Argus Leader and KELO TV.

In a survey of 500 registered voters likely to cast their ballots in the election, 45 percent said they would vote for Republican Kristi Noem if the race were held today. Meanwhile, 45 percent said they'd vote for Democrat Billie Sutton.

One percent of those surveyed said they planned to support Libertarian Kurt Evans.

Another 9 percent said they were undecided.

Jacksonville, Florida-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy polled voters by telephone between October 18 and October 22. The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.

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The numbers illustrate that for the first time in more than 40 years, a Democrat could be poised to take the governor's mansion. While campaigns' internal polls reported a tightening race and the Cook Political Report earlier this month shifted the race from a likely Republican win to a toss-up, this is the first independent polling to show the race is a dead heat.

And in the days ahead of the contest both the Noem and Sutton campaigns appeared keenly aware of the tight nature of the race.

The winner in the state's gubernatorial contest will replace Gov. Dennis Daugaard, who is term-limited. And that person will make history.

No matter whom South Dakotans choose, they'll select a first.

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South Dakota 2018 election: Photos of gubernatorial candidates Kristi Noem and Billie Sutton

Noem would be the first woman elected to serve as South Dakota's governor. Sutton would be the first Democrat to win the governor's mansion in decades and the youngest candidate to win the office. And Evans would be the state's first Libertarian governor if elected.

With twelve days until the election, candidates have a tight window to win over voters still on the fence or steal support from their competitor.

Accordingly, they took digs at one another in their first debate Tuesday night and in new television and radio ads.

Michael Klinski, mklinski@argusleader.com

Sutton on Wednesday said the result confirmed his suspicions about the race.

“We have the momentum to win this race because I am a regular South Dakotan fighting to build a stronger South Dakota for all of our people," he said in a statement. "We have real work to do in Pierre to make government more transparent and trustworthy, and folks trust me to reach across the aisle and bring people together around our shared values to do that."

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Noem said her campaign was bolstering its efforts ahead of Election Day and planned to traverse the state in coming days as part of a bus tour.

"We're feeling good," Noem said in a statement. "Everywhere we go, I can feel the momentum building. People are tuning in, and they're getting excited about bringing home a win on November 6."

Aiming to find an upper hand

The polls point to strengths and weaknesses that each candidate could harness or avoid in the run-up to the election.

Sutton held the upper hand in terms of voter approval. Fifty percent of those polled said they had a favorable opinion of Sutton. And 24 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of him. Twenty-three percent had a neutral opinion about the Democrat and the remaining 3 percent didn't recognize his name.

All those polled recognized Noem's name and of those, 44 percent said they had a favorable opinion of her. Another 35 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her. The remaining 21 percent said they were neutral on the Republican candidate.

Support for the candidates tended to break on party lines with 82 percent of Democrats saying they would support Sutton, 10 percent backing Noem, 1 percent supporting Evans and 7 percent undecided.

By contrast, 71 percent of Republicans said they'd support Noem, 19 percent said they'd vote for Sutton, 1 percent said they'd back Evans and 9 percent were undecided.

Independent and unaffiliated voters favored Sutton, with 57 percent of those polled saying they'd back the Democrat while 32 percent said they'd back his Republican opponent. One percent of those polled said they'd support Evans and 10 percent had not yet made up their minds.

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Noem carried an 8-percentage point lead in the southeastern part of the state as compared to Sutton and a 6-point lead over the Democrat in his native west river. But Sutton took a 7-percentage point lead over Noem in the Sioux Falls metro area and a 4-point lead over the Republican in her native northeast part of the state.

Sutton had a stronger appeal with female voters, 51 percent of those polled said they'd vote for him as compared to 43 percent who said they'd support Noem. The remaining 6 percent were undecided.

Meanwhile, male voters favored Noem. Forty-seven percent of men polled said they'd vote for Noem while 39 percent said they'd back Sutton, and 2 percent said they planned to support Evans. Another 12 percent were undecided.

Voters younger than 50 gravitated toward Sutton, with 49 percent saying they'd support the Democrat. Meanwhile, 42 percent said they'd vote for Noem. Two percent said they'd back Evans and the remaining 7 percent were on the fence.

Noem held an eight-point lead among voters older than 50. Eleven percent of voters in that age range remained undecided.

A contested race in a dark red state

Despite the poll results, the political atmosphere in South Dakota favors Noem.

Registered Republicans in the state outnumber Democrats by almost 98,000 voters.

And campaign finance reports released Monday show Noem outraised and outspent Sutton in the lead up to the election. The Republican raised $2.2 million and spent around $2.7 million through October 17. Sutton raised $1.4 million in that timeframe and spent about $1.6 million.

The Democrat had more than $640,000 left in his campaign coffers, per the pre-general filing, while Noem had more than $550,000.

The candidates are set to appear in two televised debates, on Thursday and Monday, ahead of the general election.