To call the United Conservative Party the “heavy” favourite heading into the upcoming provincial election is something of an understatement.

The party has such an overwhelming lead in the polls that it is probably more accurate to characterize the UCP as the Stantec Tower favourite. Or the Milan Lucic favourite.

Distroscale

Or pick a mountain in the Rockies and use that as a metaphor.

You can get some idea of what I’m talking about by looking at the latest numbers , released earlier this week by Mainstreet Research. The polling company found the UCP is currently enjoying the support of 52.3 per cent of respondents who are decided or leaning, well ahead of the NDP’s 27.8 per cent.

That’s the kind of rarefied air that would give UCP a staggering majority government with anywhere from 65 to 80 of the province’s 87 seats.

At those sorts of numbers, you’d assume UCP Leader Jason Kenney would also be feeling the love from Albertans, or at least from conservatives.

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But a deeper dive into the polling data suggests Kenney’s personal popularity is not keeping pace with that of his party.

Additional numbers from that same Mainstreet poll, obtained by Postmedia, show 39.7 per cent of respondents across the province had a favourable opinion of Kenney while 33.1 per cent had an unfavourable view.

For comparison, NDP Leader Rachel Notley generated a favourable opinion from 36.9 per cent of respondents weighed against 49.3 per cent unfavourable.

While neither leader will be popping champagne over their ratings, Notley is trending ahead of her party whereas Kenney is doing the opposite.

The results are even more interesting when broken down by region and party.

In particular, among respondents who have decided to vote UCP or are leaning that way, just 68 per cent said they had a favourable view of Kenney.

Think about that for a moment.

Among voters likely to support the UCP — the party presumably on its way to a massive majority — one-third of them can’t say they like the party leader.

(To compare, Notley received 88 per cent favourability from NDP supporters.)

In the Calgary region, where the UCP has been enjoying a very healthy lead over the NDP, the results were similarly counter-intuitive. Respondents there actually gave Notley higher favourability marks than Kenney — 42.9 per cent for the NDP leader to 39.4 per cent for the UCP boss.

Though intriguing, such results should be taken with a spoonful of caution.

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Polls are snapshots in time, aren’t always reliable at capturing wide public sentiment, and the margin of error becomes substantial when results are broken down by region or party.

Nonetheless, the numbers do raise some questions.

It’s hardly rocket science to figure out that the most likable leaders tend to be the most successful at election time. Exceptions do happen, such as Doug Ford’s victory in Ontario last year, but generally that’s not a winning formula.

In Kenney’s case, it’s fair to wonder if the UCP’s internal research indicates a similar trend to that revealed by the poll.

The UCP leader has been the focus of substantial public grousing recently from former members who have accused him of a dictatorial leadership style and reneging on his vow to heed grassroots input.

The party’s latest ad campaign , featuring a smiling Kenney dressed in casual clothing, is perhaps the best indication that UCP strategists would like to soften how their leader is perceived.

Regardless, if an image issue exists, Kenney still has time to improve his numbers, and even if he doesn’t, it’s not clear it’s going to hurt his chances of becoming premier.

Like Doug Ford, he could be the exception to the rule.

That’s because many Albertans with an unfavourable view of Kenney clearly still plan to vote for him.

That could be because they respect his skill set, or may even see the things they dislike about him — being a ferocious campaigner, for example — as assets Alberta will need in a fight with other Canadian leaders.

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For the moment, the unified party, still dealing with tensions left over from the merger, seems to be holding together on the shared desire to get rid of the NDP.

It’s the days to come afterwards where the concerns about Kenney’s popularity may play out.

You can imagine a scenario of the UCP forming one of Alberta’s largest majority governments in recent memory headed by a leader who isn’t particularly well liked by his own people.

That’s a situation ripe for discord, and will truly test the unity of the new party.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. That’s a column for another day.

In the meantime, the only thing that is certain is that much can change before election day.

After all, as we saw just four years ago, going from a heavy favourite to a political lightweight can happen in the blink of a campaign.

Note: The Mainstreet poll is based on responses of 893 Albertans on Jan. 15 and 16. The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.28 percentage points, accurate 19 times out of 20. The margin increases when results are broken down by region or party support.

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