Advertisement Possible tropical storm for Myrtle Beach Bad timing for the holiday weekend Share Shares Copy Link Copy

Updated Thursday evening.... A few years ago I went to Myrtle Beach on Memorial Day weekend to get some quality beach time and relaxation. Memorial Day is always a packed weekend along the Grand Strand.Well, the year I went, there was zero sunshine over a 4 day period. On 2 of the days the temperature stayed in the 50's and it rained much of the time.Bad weather always seems to follow me a beach trips.Remnants of hurricanes hit Hilton Head and Destin when I went and other beach vacations have had soaking rains.This year I am staying home for Memorial Day weekend, but there could be some big problems for the South Carolina beaches and you can't blame me.The National Hurricane Center has an 80% chance for a tropical storm this weekend..This storm will be named Bonnie. The first storm of the season was a rare January hurricane in the eastern Atlantic.Here are the forecasts from the different computer models....GFS: A weak system near Savannah..Map from WeatherBellThe NAM has a stronger system 84 hours out heading toward Myrtle Beach..The GEM has a Myrtle Beach landfall in it's forecast..The Euro which I cannot show also is about the same.NWS Charleston says......Saturday through Sunday: Increasing confidence that some form of low pressure system, be it extratropical or tropical, will impact the forecast area. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a high likelihood of this system becoming tropical or subtropical and may investigate the developing low pressure system with a reconnaissance aircraft midday Friday if needed. Regardless of whether the system gets named as a tropical system, the expected impacts on local weather would likely be similar. Given the relatively cool water temperatures over the western Atlantic, at best the system could become a weak tropical storm before moving inland late in the weekend.NWS Wilmington, NC: As of 3 PM Thursday... Well, there are some facets of the extended that are becoming a bit clearer and other things not so much. The development and track of the Bahamas system is becoming better agreed upon between various models. Most seem to take it into the South Carolina coast some time (late, probably) Sunday. The GFS and EC also agree that from there the system will grind to nearly a halt with just a slow NE drift up the coast on a slow inland track. Only the Canadian has a quicker movement. The slower solution preferred following coordination call with NHC/WPC. So while this will no doubt be refined in the future (especially if flights into the system begin tomorrow) the more uncertain points remain the strength of the system and the envelope of moisture. Should a long duration of effects from this system pan out they will likely be Sunday through Tuesday. Potential heavy rain probably the greatest threat at this point but even that may not be overly high. Secondary effects likely beach related in the form of rip currents. And then whenever the center of the storm moves by a tornado threat certainly seems likely to develop. With the current forecast the rain and tornado threat appear slated for Monday.So if you are planning a beach vacation this weekend.... the Gulf Coast or further south into Florida is probably the way to go.Florida has not had a hurricane since 2005 and the U.S. has not had a major hurricane hit since 2005. A major hurricane is considered Category 3.Sandy hit New Jersey as a Category 1 storm if you go by wind. If you go by the storm surge it was much stronger, but the NHC places the category based on the wind.Storm names for this year in the Atlantic.....