Perhaps the safest back of the top-tier ball carriers, Eddie Lacy appears primed for another solid year in the Packers high-octane offense. Many of the other top picks hold more risk. Adrian Peterson missed nearly all of last season, Le’Veon Bell is suspended for the beginning of 2015, and Jamaal Charles faces injuries. This makes Lacy the safest pick of the top-tier running backs.

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Lacy should face no shortage of opportunities to score with the green and gold. The Packers coaching staff and several talking heads are expecting the Packers offense to rival or exceed the record-setting 2011 squad. This should correlate to plenty of scoring opportunities for the Packers bell cow, and, besides perhaps Marshawn Lynch, can you find a better goal line running back in the league? Lacy has improved the one thing that was once considered to be his Achilles’ heel, his hands, and now puts up solid receiving numbers. As a result, he should no longer be downgraded in PPR leagues. Additionally, Lacy is surprisingly effective on screens for a running back of his build.

While the Packers offense provides a high floor for Lacy’s production, it unfortunately also lowers his ceiling. The very nature of the Packers’ wide-open attack will also steal opportunities from Lacy through quick strikes. In the past McCarthy has talked about reducing Lacy’s workload, but that usually becomes just that once the games begin. McCarthy also has a tendency to abandon the run from time to time (which is hard to blame him for when he has Aaron Rodgers), but that habit could diminish with OC Tom Clements handling play calling duties this season. James Starks is also a factor. Remember, if you draft Lacy, make sure you add Starks in the late rounds to protect your investment. If Lacy misses any games, Starks becomes a true handcuff back and nearly a top 10 rusher himself.

Lacy is perhaps the safest pick of the RBs, but don’t expect the superstar potential upside you can find from AP, Charles, or even C.J. Anderson. Lacy is as close to a guaranteed 10 points a week as you can find.

Projection: 1,220 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 13 total TDs

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Trevor Spranger is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Trevor, you can check out his archive or follow him @tspranger.

