Social Security recipients are going to get no cost-of-living adjustment next year. But if the determination was based on the government’s own estimate of what inflation is like for those 62 years and over, there would be a rise in benefits.

Social Security is calculated based on the change in prices for an inflation measure called CPI-W during the third quarter. That dropped 0.4% from the third quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015.