2 Emma Stone, "La La Land"

Lionsgate

The biggest thing Emma Stone has going for her? Charm. The lady is a talk-show diamond and a magazine-cover superstar, and that's important during the whirlwind awards season where front-runners are everywhere. She is the highlight of "La La Land," a contemporary Ginger Rogers singing, dancing and romancing through the streets of Hollywood. The movie could very well sweep on technical and emotional merits, making Stone an easy choice. But the last two actresses nominated for proper musicals (Renée Zellweger in "Chicago" and Nicole Kidman in "Moulin Rouge!") lost to more conventional dramatic turns. The Academy likes its lead actresses to emote, and Stone is more moving than she is transformative. Right now, a box-office boost would do wonders: "La La Land" is the sort of thing you want to watch again and again, so a bangup theatrical run in December could make it unstoppable.