Bubble Watch: SEC teams revive NCAA tournament hopes with big wins

Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports | USATODAY

Days until Selection Sunday: 7

The big picture:

For about a week, no one from the SEC's muddled pack of borderline teams looked like it wanted to reach the NCAA tournament.

On Saturday? All of them had a change of heart.

The highest-profile victory of the lot belonged to Kentucky, and understandably so. The Wildcats turned around less than 48 hours after their most puzzling loss of the season (at Georgia) and collected their most prized triumph (at home against Florida).

But it wasn't just John Calipari's crew.

Tennessee? It dusted off Missouri.

Alabama? It needed a half-court buzzer-beater, but still defeated Georgia in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama beats Georgia on Releford's 50-foot buzzer beater Alabama junior guard Trevor Releford's 50-foot shot at the buzzer gave the Crimson Tide a thrilling 61-58 SEC win against Georgia on Senior Day at Coleman Coliseum.

Long shot Arkansas? The Razorbacks beat Texas A&M at home, because they beat everybody (well, except Syracuse) at home.

And Ole Miss? The Rebels had to go on the road, but they won, too, knocking off Louisiana State.

So the SEC? Yes, it's still chaotic. But all those borderline teams that have hovered around the edge of the field are still alive entering the conference tournament in Nashville.

Words that speak volume:

"I think the job is done. Now the next phase for us is to go try and compete in a tough SEC tournament in Nashville. As far as the NCAA tournament is concerned, I feel like the work is done. I think that just solidifies it, when you look at the résumés of the other teams and look at the things we've done to put ourselves in position." — Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin following the Vols' victory over Missouri.

Hot seat: Virginia

The Cavaliers have dropped two consecutive games, and two games in a row against teams they shouldn't have lost to.

It gets Maryland at home on Sunday, and while falling to the Terrapins wouldn't be a giant black mark, it would place the Cavaliers in a tenuous position entering the ACC tournament.

A loss would give Virginia the No. 5 seed in the league tournament, which sets up a won't-do-anything-to-help date with either Virginia Tech or Wake Forest. Then would come a likely must-win against N.C. State to harbor serious postseason hopes.

A win means the Cavaliers are the No. 4 seed, that they won't deal with the last-place team on Thursday and they might have at least a little wiggle room in Greensboro.

Or not. Virginia (20-10) possesses the quirkiest of resumes, and there's no telling just how it will be treated --- unless it happens to rip off a long winning streak or just lose out.

Nightly winners:

Teams that took a step forward, however modest, on Saturday...

Belmont: The Bruins needed overtime to outlast Murray State in the Ohio Valley final, but they managed to avoid fretting for a week about their at-large fate.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats probably weren't in any serious danger, but a loss to South Florida could have made things interesting entering the Big East tournament. Cincinnati isn't playing particularly well, but it should make the tournament.

Iowa State: The Cyclones needed to follow up their victory over Oklahoma State with a road triumph at West Virginia, and earned it in circuitous fashion. Iowa State built a 25-point lead, then let most of it get away before fending off the Mountaineers. Barring bid thieves, Iowa State should be in decent shape, but a Big 12 quarterfinal victory wouldn't hurt.

Saint Mary's: The Gaels weren't great, needing overtime to dispatch San Diego in the West Coast semifinals. But they avoided the sort of crushing loss that would have inflicted serious damage on their NCAA hopes.

Nightly losers:

Teams that took a step back Saturday...

Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs' at-large hopes effectively fell apart over a three-day stretch in the Mountain time zone. Louisiana Tech followed up a loss to New Mexico State with a 78-54 stumble at Denver to fall into a tie for the Western Athletic Conference lead. The Bulldogs' path to the NCAA tournament is now three wins in the conference tournament.

Princeton: A repeat team from Friday's losers, and for good cause. The Tigers led the Ivy League entering the weekend. Then they lost to Yale. Then they lost to Brown. And just like that, Princeton will finish second in the Ivy, regardless of how this week's game against Penn goes.

Syracuse: Was it only a few weeks ago that the Orange seemed like a viable contender for a No. 1 seed? With four losses in five games and a 39-point outing against Georgetown that ranks as the lowest-scoring performance in Jim Boeheim's lengthy tenure, Syracuse is reeling at the wrong time.

Résumé worth dissecting: Temple

The Owls have won seven of eight, which has done plenty to lift them above a scrum of teams that seems to lose at least once on a weekly basis. Temple isn't comfortably inside the field, but the Saint Louis triumph looks better by the day. Fran Dunphy's team is in solid shape to get back to the NCAA tournament, and even an inexplicable loss in the early rounds of the A-10 tournament might not be enough to keep the Owls out.

NIT-bound (unless it wins its conference tournament): Arizona State

It's not fair at this point to pin the Sun Devils' woes solely on a poor nonconference strength of schedule.

That was going to be an issue for Herb Sendek's team, but no matter. Arizona State (20-11) has dropped four consecutive games and six of eight overall down the stretch to play its way right out of NCAA tournament contention.

The sweep of Colorado is nice and so is a victory over UCLA, but the Sun Devils lost to DePaul (at home!) and Utah and have done nothing to help themselves in recent weeks. They'll need to win out in the Pac-12 tournament, an unlikely proposition for a team that's won just three games since the start of February.

On deck:

Virginia Commonwealth at Temple (Noon ET, CBS): The Owls are in solid shape for an at-large bid as it is, but a victory over the visiting conference co-leader should eliminate even the slightest remaining doubt. Illinois at Ohio State (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Can the Buckeyes continue their surge after knocking off Indiana on the road last week? Creighton vs. Wichita State (2 p.m. ET, CBS): There will be no bid-snatching out of the Missouri Valley title game, just a really good game between two strong programs. It could also be Creighton's Valley swan song if it winds up joining the Catholic Seven in the revamped and basketball-centric Big East. Indiana at Michigan (4 p.m. ET, CBS): The Hoosiers look to avoid consecutive setbacks for the first time all season, while Michigan hopes to finish off a perfect record in Crisler Arena for the season. Maryland at Virginia (6 p.m. ET, ESPNU): A pair of ACC bubblers close out the regular season in Charlottesville. Regardless of the outcome, both need a conference tournament push of some kind to reach the NCAA tournament.

AQ IQ: The quick need-to-know on automatic qualifying bid teams that clinched spots in the field of 68 on Saturday

Belmont: The Bruins did the same thing in their first year in the Ohio Valley that they did in their last two in the Atlantic Sun: Win a conference tournament. Coach Rick Byrd has Belmont in the NCAA tournament for the sixth time in eight years; in five previous appearances (all one-and-dones), the Bruins have played one single-digit game (a 71-70 loss to Duke in 2008). This time, though, Belmont has a serious shot at a No. 12 seed.

Florida Gulf Coast: The Eagles are in their second year as a program eligible for the NCAA tournament. They are only in their 11th season as a program, period. Yet they ripped host Mercer to collect the Atlantic Sun title. Sure, the school's name makes it sound like a community college, but second-year coach Andy Enfield has done a stellar job; just ask Miami, which lost to the Eagles in November.

Harvard: The Crimson had played in one NCAA tournament (1946) before last season. Now, they're back-to-back Ivy League champs despite an academic scandal that led to the suspension of two senior co-captains well before the season.

Here's another wild thought: The six Ivies outside of Penn and Princeton combined for three NCAA appearances between 1963 and 2007. They (or, more specifically, Cornell and Harvard) have managed five NCAA bids in the last six years.

Stat of the day: Although it lost to Oklahoma State, Kansas State still managed to secure a share of its first regular season conference crown since 1977 when Kansas fell at Baylor. Not a bad first year for coach Bruce Weber, who was fired at Illinois after last season.

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About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' bracket/bubble specialist for the 2013 NCAA tournament. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.

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