Ecuador has granted Julian Assange asylum, kicking off an epic diplomatic standoff. While he sits inside the Ecuadorian embassy, British police have to stand by outside and wait. If they go inside (or "storm" it, as one official claimed the police threatened to do), they'd be violating one of the most fundamental diplomatic rules between nations, and would endanger British embassies around the world by setting a needless precedent.

The Foreign Office has tweeted a statement making it clear that they still intend to extradite Assange. It said, "We are still committed to reaching a mutually acceptable solution. Under our law, with Mr Assange having exhausted all options of appeal UK authorities are under binding obligation to extradite him to Sweden. We shall carry out that obligation. The Ecuadorian Government's decision this afternoon does not change that." So, where does that leave Assange?

He always knew that he would be arrested if he left the embassy—he's violated his bail conditions, after all. Now, though, he knows that if he can get to Ecuador he won't have to answer the rape allegations in Sweden. That means he has to find a way out of the United Kingdom, but there's absolutely no reason to expect the British authorities to allow that to happen.

It's important to make it clear here that what he's been accused of is definitely rape by British law, too—this isn't something that only the Swedes prosecute, no matter what Assange may think. As others have noted (like Anna North at Jezebel), it's deeply depressing that so many people have automatically assumed that the women allegedly raped in this case must have some secret, ulterior motive.

That's why it's also depressing to see Ecuador grant Assange asylum. The whole point of asylum is to give people a way of escaping political persecution in countries where they aren't politically free. Granting Assange asylum makes the allegations of rape a de facto political crime, even if it's meant to be a way of saving Assange from further extradition to the US.

The Ecuadorian government claims that it tried to negotiate an agreement with the Swedish authorities to get a promise that Assange could not be then further extradited to the US. It is clear that the American government is after Assange—and a leaked Stratfor email appears to confirm that a sealed indictment has been issued by the US Justice Department—and Ecuador made the offer for the Swedish authorities to question Assange in the Ecuadorian embassy.

Advocates for Assange argue that he faces a greater chance of being taken to the US once in Sweden, but then analysis from actual lawyers tends to be pretty clear that that's a fair bit harder to pull off than from the UK. And as Human Rights Watch points out, Ecuador isn't exactly great when it comes to press freedoms and human rights.

But here we are, and Assange now has a safe haven where he can both avoid extradition to the US and the allegations of rape. So, what happens now?

Storming the embassy

This was talked about by the Ecuadorian authorities, who claimed they received a letter from the British consulate in Quito threatening the forcible extraction of Assange. The truth is more mundane—the British government pointed out that it has the right to take away the special diplomatic immunity of the embassy, and thus has no problem using a warrant for Assange's arrest to get in.

This isn't too realistic, though. For one thing, it would destroy relations between the two countries, and it's doubtful the UK cares that much about Assange to risk that. The Ecuadorian government has the right to challenge the decision in court, too, so it could be a long, drawn-out process (as David Allen Green talks about over at the New Statesman).

One solution to avoid litigation would be to simply break off diplomatic relations with Ecuador altogether, expel the Ecuadorian ambassador, and then arrest Assange. But why on earth would the UK want to be so drastic as to do that? Any chance of the UK authorities getting into the embassy to nab Assange is effectively nil.

OK, so Assange flees outside

He'd be arrested as soon as he stepped outside the front door, or any door for that matter. Or window. The police have the place pretty thoroughly surrounded.

Diplomatic vehicles have the same status as diplomatic buildings, so if Assange could make a break for a car and get in, he'd be as safe as if he were in the embassy still. Except then he'd be stuck in a car, surrounded by police, and presumably forced to come out eventually to get food or go to the restroom. A car isn't practical. However...

A helicopter?

Assange could theoretically climb into some kind of helicopter (or James Bond-style gyrocopter) and fly away. The problem with this approach is that the helicopter would have to be a diplomatic vehicle as well to avoid getting searched as soon as it landed—and even if it was granted diplomatic status, it's hard to imagine it having enough fuel to fly far enough away that he could leave the UK. A helicopter isn't going to make it across the Atlantic, and the best it can do is land in another EU country who would also be legally obliged to extradite Assange to Sweden.

It's not realistic to assume he could just keep flying upward to eventually "leave" British airspace, either. There isn't any kind of agreed international point where airspace and (neutral) outer space begins. The closest is the Kármán line, defined as 100km above sea level. By comparison, the highest skydive ever (by Joseph Kittinger) was from a measly 31km high, and he needed a pressurised suit for that. No, escaping by air alone is unfeasible...

Unless he landed on the water

International waters begin 24 nautical miles (44km) off shore. Ecuador could sail a ship there, wait for Assange to fly overhead in a helicopter (or drift over in a balloon), and pick him up and take him "home." As soon as he was on the high seas he'd be under the jurisdiction of the nation the boat is registered to, and since that's Ecuador, he'd technically be high and dry even while in the middle of the ocean. Ecuador doesn't have an aircraft carrier, though, or even much of a navy outside its own domestic waters, so it might have to rent someone's ship.

The problem with this is that it assumes the British government would give the Ecuadorian government permission to fly a diplomatic helicopter over London knowing that it would be used to aid the escape of a fugitive. That's the same legal reasoning that would allow the UK government to withdraw diplomatic status for the embassy in London.

Negotiating a deal

It's tempting to conjure absurd escape attempts by Assange. But the truth is Julian Assange is probably very, very scared of what might happen to him if he were to be extradited to the US. He knows what's happening to Bradley Manning right now. But he has also been accused of rape, and there are two women in Sweden who deserve justice and the full respect of both the law and wider society for being brave enough for speaking out.

The only realistic way out for Assange is for the British and Ecuadorian governments to negotiate a deal. In the long run, Assange will probably have to face the rape allegations in some way, but by granting Assange asylum the Ecuadorian government has signaled that it really does want to protect Assange from any further extradition to the US. The most sensible outcome would appear to be some kind of negotiated agreement where the Swedes promise not to send Assange to the US—and hope that the Wikileaks founder finds it acceptable to come out of the embassy he's lived in for the past 8 weeks.

This article was originally published on Wired.co.uk. Read the original story here.