December 19, 2002 02:36 IST

Example 1: The imam of the Jama Masjid in Ahmedabad must rank as pretty stupid. Anybody even remotely connected with the Gujarat election knew that the Muslims of the state were going to vote for the Congress; in fact, they had little choice but to vote for the Congress, and they intended to turn out in large numbers. After all, for the Muslims, the election was a question of life and death. Yet, this worthy decided to issue a fatwa asking Muslims to vote for the Congress about three or four days before polling day, December 12.

A day after this so-called fatwa, so-called since many Muslims have since questioned his right to issue a fatwa on issues of politics, huge advertisements published by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, which was campaigning for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, appeared in local Gujarati papers, urging Hindus to reply by ensuring that they voted.

Not surprisingly, the riot-hit areas recorded some of the highest turnouts, despite the fact that December is the marriage season for Gujaratis.

Example 2: After the elections results confirmed the best-ever victory for the BJP and a Congress in tatters, SMS (short messaging service, the latest mode of communication in India) messages went out to key reporters in Gujarat, regardless of whether they were pro- or anti-BJP. The messages said: 'Is it not strange that wherever Sonia Gandhi campaigned -- Vadodara, Randikpur, etc -- the Congress lost badly?'

Such SMS messages had been reaching key journalists for a week before the election from BJP supporters, more specifically, supporters of then caretaker Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

What does the Congress have to counter this latest communication technology? In a word, nothing.

There is little doubt that the BJP led by Modi and the VHP led by Praveen Togadia conducted an amazing campaign, which gave the former a margin of victory that surprised even Modi. This was the same party that, just over a year ago, in an internal assessment, had come up with the depressing realization that if elections were held then and there, it would not bag even 50 seats. A desperate top leadership replaced then chief minister Keshubhai Patel with Modi.

Nothing showed up the shaky base of the BJP more than the fact that when by-elections were held in four constituencies, only Modi won from Rajkot II; the BJP lost in Ahmedabad, Surat, and Vadodara, the largest cities of Gujarat.

Then the Godhra massacre happened, followed by widespread communal riots.

The BJP thus could go into electoral battle portraying itself as the saviour of the Hindus. Narendra Modi was a star for having let Hindu mobs run amuck in the central part of the state, targeting Muslims in retaliation for the Godhra massacre.

Modi began his speeches in the state by saying "I am not going to talk about Godhra..." And he would conclude them by saying, "But I will never forget Godhra", thus clearly driving home the point that this election was all about the protection of Hindus.

Next, Modi, the BJP and the VHP targeted the Congress as a pro-Muslim party, though the latter made every attempt to play down this image. A famous remark made by Modi at an election rally went down well with the public: "If the BJP wins, firecrackers will be burst in Gujarat; if the Congress wins, crackers will be burst in Karachi and Lahore."

Strangely, the Congress replies to such insinuations were rather weak, though it tried to point out that it was the Congress that had lost two prime ministers for taking a strong stand against terrorism while the BJP at the central level was the party that had tried to make peace with Pakistan. But its organisational ability to reach out strongly and spread its side of the story was no match for the BJP's. The latter runs a full-fledged media centre and ensured that its messages went out on television, newspapers, and via SMS to cell phones.

A young Congress leader in Ahmedabad said he had warned, in vain, the top leadership to take a strong line on the issue of terrorism. "I believe that by not standing up to such accusations, we lost the election, especially in light of the terrorist attack on the Akshardham temple," he said. "When you think of it, our party has actually fought all the battles against terrorism and defeated Pakistan in the wars. But this message has to be taken across; we cannot assume that the people will remember it."

In hindsight, it appears that the inability of the Congress to make its voice heard and its organisational weaknesses hurt it aplenty. For instance, the Akshardham temple belongs to the Swaminarayan sect, among whose members are most of the state's dominant Patel caste. Though many pundits believed the Patels were angry with the BJP for a variety of reasons, the election clearly proved otherwise. Congress leaders now agree that the Akshardham attack must have played a role in getting them to back the BJP again.

Then there was Godhra. The VHP had prepared a video that showed the burnt coach and the burnt corpses of men, women and an eight-month-old baby. The video was taken around by women and shown in the quiet of residences and villages, often in the afternoon when the housework was done. Said the wife of a BJP candidate who won the election, "When we would show the video, very often the women would start crying and even those upset with the BJP because of rising prices said they would vote for the BJP now."

The perception that only the BJP can protect Hindus in the state was strong, and growing stronger.

The VHP also chipped in. This organisation has an awesome network in Gujarat, with its workers covering virtually every village of this spread out and less densely populated state. Playing the Hindu card and the threat of Islamic terrorism and Muslim fundamentalism, the VHP mobilised votes for the BJP.

Finally, there was Modi, the Hindutva hero. That Modi is young compared to the geriatrics who populate Indian politics and looks comparatively dashing only added to his brand image.

Modi said he represented Gujarati asmita (pride), which had been "vilified" in the English media and outside Gujarat ever since the riots broke out. Clearly, he had touched a raw nerve and the message went home with many Gujaratis who felt they were being judged and sentenced by the national and international media.