Background:

In 2012, the Jaguars went 2-14 with an offense centered around Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts, and Justin Blackmon. Since then, the team has been rebuilt, and gotten better and younger. Among offensive players, only Marcedes Lewis was on the team during each of the last four years. I’ll have more on the Jaguars tomorrow, but given the way the Jets have moved from young and bad to old and good, I think that’s the more interesting team to analyze today.

Here’s how to read the table below. In 2012, the Jets offense had an age-adjusted AV of 26.9; that dropped to 26.4 in 2013, then rose to 27.5 in 2014 and up to a league-high 29.2 last season. That’s an average of 27.5, but more interesting (to me) is the variance of 1.1 years.

Team 2012 2013 2014 2015 Avg Variance JAX 27.1 26.9 24.5 25 25.9 1.3 NYJ 26.9 26.4 27.5 29.2 27.5 1.1 TEN 27.8 27.5 27 25.4 26.9 0.9 HOU 28.7 27.6 27.7 26.6 27.7 0.6 PIT 27.7 26.8 26.5 28.3 27.3 0.5 STL 26.7 25.9 26.6 25 26.1 0.5 CAR 27.5 28.5 26.6 27.5 27.5 0.5 TAM 26.9 27.2 27.7 25.9 26.9 0.4 ATL 29 28 27.4 27.4 28.0 0.4 IND 26.3 25.7 26.2 27.4 26.4 0.4 DET 28.2 27.2 27.1 26.5 27.3 0.4 CIN 25.5 26 25.9 27.1 26.1 0.4 CLE 26 26.6 26.9 27.5 26.8 0.3 GNB 27.3 26.1 26.4 27.3 26.8 0.3 NYG 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.8 27.3 0.3 OAK 27.7 27.1 26.8 26.3 27.0 0.3 ARI 27.3 28 27.5 28.6 27.9 0.3 DAL 27.8 26.6 26.8 26.6 27.0 0.2 WAS 26.1 26.4 27.1 25.9 26.4 0.2 SDG 29 27.8 28.3 28 28.3 0.2 BAL 27.7 26.8 28 27.3 27.5 0.2 DEN 28.6 28.2 28.7 27.7 28.3 0.2 BUF 26.8 27 27.1 26.1 26.8 0.2 SFO 27.4 28.4 27.8 27.9 27.9 0.1 MIA 26 26.6 26.1 25.7 26.1 0.1 MIN 26.2 27 26.6 26.4 26.6 0.1 NOR 28.9 29 29 28.3 28.8 0.1 PHI 27.1 27.7 27.5 27.8 27.5 0.1 SEA 26.1 25.5 25.7 26 25.8 0.1 CHI 27.9 27.4 28 27.6 27.7 0.1 KAN 26.6 26.3 26.8 26.4 26.5 0.0 NWE 28.4 28.1 28.2 28 28.2 0.0

Here’s a closer look at how the Jets offense has changed over that period:

The 2012 Jets featured a lot of homegrown players: Sanchez, Greene, Kerley, and Hill were drafted in ’09, ’09, ’11, and ’12. Meanwhile, on the offensive line, Mangold and Ferguson were in their primes after being drafted in ’06, while Slauson and Howard were homegrownish , too. But New York let both players leave, while Sanchez, Greene, and Hill all failed to live up to expectations (to varying degrees and in varying ways).

The 2015 Jets had a very good offense, but in a pretty weird way. None of the top 7 players on offense were drafted by the Jets in the previous 9 drafts. They acquired Fitzpatrick, Marshall, and Ivory via trade, Mangold/Ferguson in ’06, and Decker and Giacomini via free agency. You could make the argument that Carpenter was the 8th most important player on the Jets offense, and he was picked up in free agency, too. The Jets have used seven consecutive first round picks on defensive players, and that’s part of the issue, but New York has badly missed on the other picks used on offensive players over the last decade. At that point, the only way to have a good offense is to have an old offense, which is precisely what the Jets had last year.