Based on last season’s results, this may come as a shock to you but Mississippi State finished 12th in the SEC in total defense, sixth in rushing defense, and eighth in scoring defense.

Christian Kirk may play a huge role against the Bulldogs as he has all season when A&M faces Mississippi State Saturday

The Bulldogs made their climb to the top of the college football world for a while on the strength of an offense that outscored people. They weren’t bad defensively but they tended to play really good third down defense (35% conversion rate) and ranked first in red zone defense. In addition, people didn’t want to play them because they were a big, physical unit that mauled people even when they were giving up lots of yardage.

That unit lost a number of key contributors such as Mike linebacker Bernardrick McKinney and defensive end Preston Smith. As a result, most people thought that there would be a significant downturn this season and relegated the Bulldogs to the SEC West cellar. However, as it turns out, the Bulldogs may be a better unit in some regards this season as opposed to last year.

There’s a few reasons for that. First, Mississippi State did return quite a few players that had meaningful game experience as their starting front four this season were all in the rotation last year. Second, the Bulldogs start all upperclassmen on their defensive unit including five seniors. Finally, it’s still a big defense with 310 pound defensive tackles Chris Jones and Nelson Adams, linebackers Richie Brown and Beniquez Brown, and six foot corner Will Redmond and Taveze Calhoun.

Finally, there is a new defensive coordinator in Manny Diaz who came back to Mississippi State after a failed stint at Texas. Diaz is a big fire zone guy who uses zone blitzes backed by two deep coverages to prevent big plays. The big problem that he had at Texas was that defensive backs coach Duane Akina wanted to play man coverages which brought a safety from up high and allowed far more big plays in both the running and passing games. In contrast, last season, Diaz took Louisiana Tech from the 100s to the top 20 in total defense which is quite an accomplishment.

By being aggressive at the line of scrimmage with his front seven and playing two deep coverage behind it, Diaz generates negative plays on defense without giving up a lot of explosive ones. His defense is fourth in the SEC in tackles for loss this season yet has allowed opponents to convert just 23% of their third down opportunities and they’ve given up just ten plays of over 20 yards in four games (third in the SEC in 2015). His safeties play a form of cover four called “two read” where the safeties take the inside receivers and the nickel and outside backer read the offensive tackles for a run or pass (typically in cover four it’s more or less the other way around). While you can hit hitches and other short throws against this defense, it’s harder to hit the longer ones.

The weakside end in Diaz’s defense is usually a standup player and right end A.J. Jefferson has 7.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks this season. He’s very good with his hands in shedding blocks. However, left end Ryan Brown actually has better get off and bend even though he doesn’t put up Jefferson’s numbers. Jones, Adams, and Nick James in the middle are 308 to 325 pounders who don’t get upfield or chase you east-west but are very difficult to move around. They can get push when they don’t play too high and make it easier for offensive linemen to win pad level. Jones can be a force of nature at times and it’s shocking to watch him run down outside plays from the backside (14 assisted tackles). It should be noted that the line has been inconsistent from game to game depending on how well they play their techniques.

Mike linebacker Richie Brown leads the team with 39 tackles and has 4.5 tackles for loss. Because Diaz likes to use blitzes and take some chances up front, Brown has more opportunities than most Mike backers to generate negative plays by shooting gaps and coming through the A gap between the guard and center. Will linebacker Beniquez Brown is much more of a sideline to sideline player with good closing speed. These guys are also very aggressive in looking to take on blocks early in plays and redirect runs. However, they like to play with their heels three to four yards off the ball and get caught going upfield or overrunning their lanes to the point that runners will get around them for medium gains. Redshirt freshman linebacker Gerri Green is one to watch as he is a good tackler and can really break down and deliver a blow. Outside backers Zach Jackson and T.J. Gray are more or less big nickelbacks who are surprisingly good in the open field.

Mississippi State’s secondary was somewhat maligned last season, especially in terms of making plays when the ball was in the air. Statistically, they’ve been better this season although facing LSU and Auburn (anemic passing teams) probably has helped them. However, they’ve benefitted from a strong pass rush and they’ve got veteran players who haven’t made a lot of mistakes this season. Their corners tend to play off in coverage and let people catch passes in front of them (66.7% completion rate).

Calhoun, Redmond, and junior Toland Cleveland (who plays the nickel) are big corners who play almost like safeties in the run game, particularly Redmond who has a whopping 15 solo tackles. As we said earlier, they’ll let people catch passes in front of them and then close on the ball. Safeties Kivon Coleman and Kendrick Market are very good open field tacklers and rank fourth and third on the team in tackles, respectively. Because of the aggressiveness of the linebackers, they get put in one on one situations quite often. Their size allows all of them to wrap people up and they’re very effective in that regard in the red zone. Cleveland may play a much bigger role on Saturday as Mississippi State has used three backers moreso this season as opposed to a nickel due to who they’ve faced (LSU and Auburn).

The Aggies are certainly facing a different look than they’ve faced all season due to the combination of blitzes and zone coverages with two high safety looks. In fact, they probably won’t see a more aggressive set of linebackers than the Browns in terms of run support and pass rushing.

Overall, Diaz likes to blitz and play his backers aggressively and let his safeties and corners make plays behind them in space if necessary regardless of whether you are an option team or a passing team. They eventually stop you, get you in the red zone, and then use their size to make your rushing game problematic.

A&M threw the ball a lot the last couple of years against Mississippi State due to their size up front but also because the Bulldogs played a lot of cover two last season which allowed A&M to throw a lot of underneath routes. That approach worked in 2013 with Johnny Manziel; it didn’t work in 2014 with a less experienced quarterback who threw three picks and a receiving corps that dropped a dozen passes. In addition, A&M threw sis interceptions in the two games.

Quarterback Kyle Allen is playing at a high level right now in terms of getting the ball downfield and he’s maturing in terms of getting A&M into the right plays. He’s also willing to stand in the pocket, step up, and deliver the ball versus a pass rusher bearing down on him. He’s also mobile enough to get outside containment and deliver the ball accurately when he can get his feet set.

The X factor is Christian Kirk. At some point, teams are going to start to scheme to take him away from A&M but does that begin this week with Diaz who tends to play the same style of defense regardless of the opponent? If Diaz does that against Kirk then that matchup tends to favor Kirk in space much moreso than Mississippi State’s defense, especially if they use a linebacker moreso than a nickel back.

In fact, we can talk about A&M’s offensive line versus Mississippi State’s front seven all we want but the Aggies faced a big defensive front last week against Arkansas and turned it into a space game. They ran quite a few five receiver sets and threw screens to running back Tra Carson. Arkansas didn’t blitz quite as much as Mississippi State and most of A&M’s big gains came off of plays to Kirk and Josh Reynolds.

As a result, given Mississippi State’s tendencies, there’s even more incentive for A&M to do this. As with Arkansas, they’ll be spreading out a bigger defense and trying to get one on one matchups for Kirk and Reynolds. In addition, Carson could be effective in the screen game versus those blitzes. Even so, A&M struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone and was better off generating big plays than trying to smash its way into the end zone.

Thus, the key to the game may how well A&M can score from outside the red zone as opposed to getting bogged down in it. If they can get Mississippi State’s bigger back seven in one on one matchups down the field (either in the passing game or off of plays initiated closer to the line of scrimmage) than A&M has to be able to score points. If they get inside the red zone, then that favors Mississippi State’s size because A&M probably can’t push them around or replicate those matchups in space.

Nonetheless, the Aggies have scored a lot of points the past two seasons versus Mississippi State and Allen has been much better about turning over the ball since late in the Arizona State game. If the Aggies don’t turn over the ball much and can generate touchdowns from outside the red zone (especially via Kirk), then they should score a lot of points again. If the Bulldogs can get A&M inside the red zone multiple times, then Mississippi State can limit A&M to field goals and have a much better chance of staying in the game and taking the Aggies down to the wire.

