TAMPA, FLA.—Brian Burke has already had to make one terrible choice, jettisoning his friend of 39 years as the head coach of Canada’s most scrutinized hockey team.

An even more terrible choice — at least in hockey terms — is looming.

Very soon after arriving as saviour of the Maple Leafs, the “Pope” to rule over the “Vatican of hockey,” Burke made his signature move and anointed Phil Kessel as the player who would be The One.

For some time it’s been undeniable that the price to get Kessel from the Boston Bruins was too much, that Burke overpaid to jump-start a quick turnaround in the club’s hockey fortunes, a move that symbolized a sense of haste that only he seemed to feel.

Now, as the team crashes into the shoals in one of the ugliest late season swoons in franchise history, it’s clear that Kessel isn’t The One.

Yes, he’s an elite scorer, a gifted skater and attacker who can score 30 goals just by falling out of bed. He’s a very good, sometimes electric, offensive player.

Fish or cut bait time. And cutting bait makes the most sense.

For starters, Kessel isn’t a Carlyle player and he’s not going to be. In this spectacular 18-game crash that began after that impressive Saturday night victory in Ottawa, Kessel has continued to produce numbers — seven goals and 11 assists — but hasn’t asserted himself in any way as a player who can carry or lead a struggling team.

He’s not to blame for the shocking state of this hockey club. No single player is. If there weren’t terms on contracts and a salary cap in place, the Leafs could just carry on with him indefinitely.

But the money matters complicate things. Kessel has two more seasons left on his current contract, after which he becomes an unrestricted free agent. So the clock is already ticking on the next commitment that will have to be made to him if he’s to remain a Leaf beyond his 26th birthday.

His cap hit is $5.4 million (all figures U.S.), but he was actually paid $6 million this season. Next year, the actual cash payment drops to $5.1 million, and then back up to $5.4 million in the final year of the deal. The contract is unencumbered by any movement restrictions until 2013-14, when a limited no-trade/no movement clause kicks in and trading him becomes more complicated.

So given what we now know about this player, after nearly three full seasons in a Leaf uniform, are you going to give him another five-year contract in 2014 with a hefty raise to something in the neighbourhood of $7 million? Or, if not, let him walk out the door for nothing as a UFA?

Neither makes sense.

In today’s NHL, executives have to be proactive and make decisions on player assets before they devalue. For the perfect Leaf reference, see McCabe, Bryan.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and GM Steve Yzerman made that kind of proactive choice before the trade deadline when they shipped hardnosed winger Steve Downie to Colorado in a deal that amounted to futures for the Bolts.

Downie was an effective player for Tampa and provided an element of toughness and combativeness that many teams —including the Leafs — are trying to acquire. But Yzerman realized that at the end of this season he was looking at a new deal for Downie that would likely take him well past the $3 million salary mark.

He liked the player but understood that with long-term commitments to forwards Steve Stamkos, Marty St. Louis, Ryan Malone and Vinny Lecavalier totalling about $25 million annually for at least the next three seasons, he couldn’t make another similar commitment to a forward. His next investments need to be on defence and in goal.

Now, Downie’s next contract is Colorado’s problem and Yzerman has added a first-round pick and opened up salary cap room.

Being proactive, sometimes it means getting worse before you get better. The Blue Jays made that kind of move last year by trading starting pitcher Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie.

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Making such a huge initial investment in Kessel, both literally and symbolically, means that if Burke was to ship him out now it would represent a massive and embarrassing reversal.

This, of course, is where Burke’s tendency to add a flourish of colorful pronouncements and grand gestures to his hockey decisions can backfire because they paint him into a corner.

Francois Allaire is the best goalie coach on the planet. James Reimer is the “real deal.” The infamous Twitter vow that he had no intention of replacing his coach. Giving Dion Phaneuf the captaincy after less than a season in a Leaf uniform.

The grand flourish makes it harder to change directions later.

But other teams swallow their pride and do it.

Philadelphia made enormous double digit-year commitments to captain Mike Richards and winger Jeff Carter, then decided after the paint was barely dry on those contracts to trade both players. GM Paul Holmgren simply decided he couldn’t win with that twosome and bailed.

That’s the same crossroads the Leafs are at right now with Kessel. He’s at his maximum value now with a fairly digestible contract. Getting good returns will become more difficult as he nears UFA status. Understanding that and moving him now would be a much bolder and smarter decision than heading down the Rick Nash rabbit hole.

In three months there will be 28 other teams that didn’t win the Stanley Cup, 13 of which will have missed the playoffs entirely and another eight that suffered first-round post-season defeats.

Teams will be looking to change.

Moving Kessel wouldn’t signify “blowing up” the blueprint. It would simply be an acknowledgment this player doesn’t embody what the club requires at this stage. All the other young assets acquired in recent years can be retained and prospects and/or picks secured in a Kessel trade would be valuable pieces.

Burke can’t afford to insist that Kessel is a foundation player when he obviously is not, at least not for these Leafs, and he certainly can’t afford to make another huge financial commitment to him.

Another terrible choice is upon the Leaf hockey boss. He waited too long to make the first one and it cost him. He can’t make that mistake again.

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