[text_output]To categorize the Mets 2017 season as anything besides a colossal failure would be disingenuous.

To a man, the Mets expected to compete with the Washington Nationals for a NL East Division title and, at worst, take one of the two Wild Card spots in the National League. We don’t need to summarize why or how that didn’t happen for the Mets, so let’s instead attempt to look forward and figure out how the team proves 2017 as an aberration and not the start of another stretch of struggling for the organization.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”849″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]The Line-Up[/custom_headline][text_output]The good news – even if the Mets don’t reinvest every dollar that came off the book after the 2017 season, the team is still flush with cash with anywhere between $40-60 million available for free agents.

The bad news – the Mets are flush with cash because line-up mainstays like Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker and Lucas Duda were all traded ahead of hitting free agency, leaving the Mets with massive line-up holes to fill.

Let’s go over what we know for sure first.

Yoenis Cespedes will be this team’s every day left fielder. In what was largely a forgotten, injury-riddled season for Cespedes, it’s important to remember how impactful his bat was for this line-up for the 81 games he did play. He slashed .292/.352/.540 with 17 home runs and a 131 wRC+, all while providing solid defense (+2 DRS) in left. If you were to extrapolate his numbers out to a full season, Cespedes was on pace to match his exact numbers from 2016. You can’t assume perfect health (especially for the Mets), but more of Cespedes will only help the line-up in the middle.

Amed Rosario will break camp with the team and be the Mets primary shortstop to begin the season. His 46-game cameo at the end of last year gave us flashes of his potential and left you dreaming of what the next 10+ years could look like in Queens.

However, the lump sum of his first 170 plate appearances in the majors were less than glamorous. Rosario slashed .248/.271/.394, managing only a 74 wRC+. Even more concerning – Rosario posted an abhorrent 1.8% walk rate while striking out in 28.8% of his plate appearances.

Rosario has never been known to be the most patient of hitters, but it’s safe to his walk rate will like rise to around his Minor League average of 5.5-6%. His base running and speed are already the best on the team, and the gap-to-gap power he flashed last season will only get better the more he matures.

Defensively, Rosario is without question the best shortstop the Mets have employed since prime-Reyes in the mid-2000s. Fears of him outgrowing the position seem to be a thing of the past, and the Mets up-the-middle defense will be lightyears better than it has been in a long time.

The Mets believe their 2018 catching corps is in good hands, and don’t plan to look outside the organization for additional help. Had you explained that to me in late July of last year, I would’ve been concerned. Now, there’s reason to be hopeful.

Travis d’Arnaud continues to be a conundrum offensively. The power is clearly there, hitting a career-high 16 home runs last year and slugging .443. Last year, though, it seemed as though his patience at the plate evaporated, and it’s been a deteriorating trend since 2015, dropping from a respectable 8.6% to a concerning 6.1%. D’Arnaud did a better job limiting his strikeouts, but wasn’t able to turn his contact into hits, posting career-worst .250 BABIP.

What’s more, injuries continue to be a main storyline in his career. He was able to play in a career-high 112 games last year, but that number is still well off the clip the Mets were hoping for when they acquired him as their catcher of the future.

The good news, though, is the resurgence of Kevin Plawecki. After an incredibly slow start to the season in the Majors where he slashed .125/.214/.167, it seemed as though the once-bright star associated with Plawecki had flamed out. However, after a productive stint in Las Vegas where he made significant tweaks to his approach, Plawecki came back in the second half with vengeance. He slashed .303/.411/.474, had an early 1-1 walk to strikeout ratio and maybe more importantly, gave the Mets hope.

You can make the argument that with Plawecki’s increase production and if d’Arnaud’s BABIP can return to at least his career average of .267, the Mets catching corps should be fine, both offensively and defensively.

The Mets also picked up Asdrubal Cabrera’s 2018 option, meaning he will once again be a fixture in the Mets infield. While it seems on paper Cabrera’s 2017 (1.3 fWAR) was nowhere near as impactful as his strong 2016 season (3.0 fWAR), almost all of that can be attributed to Cabrera’s shortstop defense evaporating.

Offensively, Cabrera’s two seasons with the Mets have been nearly identical. His power dipped in 2017, but he still managed a .280/.351/.434 slash line with 13 home runs and a 111 wRC+. His walk rate spiked to 9.4% and did a better job of limiting his strikeouts, shaving almost 3% off his percentage from 2016.

Defensively, Cabrera was a nightmare at short. In 386 defensive innings at the position, Cabrera tallied a -13.8 UZR/150 and was a -8 DRS. The Mets finally removed Cabrera from short (to his displeasure at first), and his defensive value began to recover. Cabrera proved to be a capable third baseman, posting a +1 DRS, and his range numbers are less of a concern at the hot corner. When positioned at second, Cabrera was fine, but the team would probably feel more comfortable playing Cabrera every day at third than at second. His bat still plays, and now that he isn’t a human void at short, his overall numbers should return to his 2016 level.

Outside of those four positions, though, everything else is a question mark.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”856″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]When healthy, Michael Conforto is without question this team’s every day right fielder, and will be for hopefully the next decade.

Conforto shut down anyone who may have questioned his ability after a disappointing 2016 with a monster junior campaign. He slashed .279/.384/.555, connected on 27 home runs and posted a 146 wRC+ in his first All-Star season. He even held his own in center field when deployed there, but is clearly more comfortable as a right fielder moving forward.

The problem with Conforto is we have no idea when he’ll return to the line-up. The timetable for Conforto’s recovery from shoulder surgery can be anywhere from 4 months (if you’re super optimistic) to a full year (if you’re extremely pessimistic). The safest scenario is to assume Conforto won’t be available on Opening Day and try to plan accordingly with that in mind.

That leaves the Mets with holes to fill at first, second, center and right come Opening Day (and yes, I’m doing all this under the assumption David Wright will not be healthy and Asdrubal Cabrera is starting at 3B. Look, I love David as much as the next guy, but we’re well beyond the point of expecting him to be a healthy contributor to this team at any given time.)

So, where are the answers?[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”859″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]On the free agent front, there are names you can immediately cross off.

As dynamic as J.D. Martinez is as a hitter (.303/.376/.690, 45 HR 104 RBI, 166 wRC+), he’s an abomination in the outfield (-14.8 UZR/150, -5 DRS, which is actually a stark improvement from his -22 DRS the year prior). American League teams are going to value his bat, and rightfully so. But it’s hard to imagine the Mets making the necessary investment in Martinez (who is projected to get $150 million over six years by MLB Trade Rumors) who won’t be able to contribute to the team defensively.

While the Mets are no longer opposed to making long-term investments to third basemen not named David Wright, Mike Moustakas doesn’t fit the mold of a player having enough position flexibility to make sense for the line-up. Add in the likely five-year commitment it would take to secure Moustakas on the open market, and you can already see Sandy Alderson not wanting to pursue him.

The Mets may have some interest in a reunion with Neil Walker, but I can’t foresee the Mets making a serious play for him. Walker had contract extension discussions with the Mets prior to them trading him to Milwaukee in August, and if something wasn’t able to be worked out then, it’s hard to imagine that changing now that Walker has the ability to sign anywhere he likes.

A Jay Bruce reunion feels equally unlikely. While Bruce was one of the few bright spots for the Mets last year, it doesn’t make sense to bring him back on a long-term commitment to force Michael Conforto (when healthy) out of position.

There are two premiere free agents I can imagine the Mets chasing. The first: Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain.

The 31-year old Cain is coming off a strong four-year run, posting fWARs of 4.8, 6.5, 2.5 (in 103 games) and 4.1, respectively. He’s hit over .300 and stolen 25+ bases in three of the last four years, with again the only exception being his injury-shortened 2016 campaign. Cain has also been one of the most steady defensive center fielders in baseball, having posted positive UZR/150s and DRS every year since becoming the everyday center fielder for the Royals.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Cain to get something close to the same contract Dexter Fowler signed last year (five-years, $82.5 million), which is where things get a little less realistic for the Mets. It’s not the annual salary that will scare them away; it’s the years. Sandy Alderson is yet to give any free agent more than four years (you can argue the Mets essentially gave Cespedes a five-year deal, I guess). It would seem uncharacteristic for Alderson to break that trend for a center fielder on the wrong side of 30 whose game relies on speed.

Furthermore, the Mets may feel like the have a strong enough center field platoon currently in house to justify allocating assets elsewhere.

As good as Lorenzo Cain is defensively, the Mets will not find a better defensive center fielder on the open market or trade market than Juan Lagares. His offensive game has been the Mets hesitation from playing him every day, but he did much better last year against right-handed pitchers (.264/.308/.379) and has always been strong against left-handed pitchers (.267/.314/.400). If the team wants to maximize the dollars they’re spending, letting Lagares play nearly everyday and mixing in Brandon Nimmo (.260/.379/.418 as a starter, .261/.433/.348 as a pinch hitter) against tougher right-handers, the Mets have a plenty-capable center fielder in house.

That brings us to Todd Frazier.

I am not the biggest Frazier fan, and would be totally fine if the Mets tried to go a different route, but he does make sense for this team. He’s a power bat to protect Cespedes and Conforto, has hit 25+ home runs each of the last four years, been an above-average hitter according to wRC+ and in all likelihood will only command a three-year deal. He also has experience at first base, which would allow the Mets to play Cabrera at third (or second) and allow Dom Smith to have more time in the minors after struggling in his brief 2017 cameo (.198/.262/.395).

If Frazier can maintain his spike in walk-rate (career-best 14.4% in ’17), his presence as a run-producer hitting 4th or 5th makes sense. Fans will crow about his batting average from time to time, but his outlying numbers back up his offensive abilities consistently. If he’s willing to play more first base than he has in the past, he’s a nearly perfect fit for the Mets.

On the trade front, there aren’t a lot of obvious targets for the Mets to chase. the name that has been bouncing around already this month is Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon. Gordon has three years and about $38 million guaranteed left on his contract, plus a team option of $14 million in 2021.

Gordon would provide much-needed speed to the top of the Mets line-up, leading the majors in stolen bases in three of the last four years. Defensively, he’d make a lightning-quick double play partner for Amed Rosario and provide the Mets with their best up-the-middle defense when Lagares starts in center field since the heyday of Rey Ordonez-Edgardo Alfonzo-Jay Payton years.

The downside with Gordon – his production is almost entirely contact-driven. Gordon walked in only 3.6% of his plate appearances last year, and while his BABIP will always be higher than normal thanks to his speed, it’s extremely difficult for a player to maintain a high-enough on base percentage at the top of a line-up if they’re only getting on base with hits.

While the Marlins are making Gordon available in trade and would likely take a slightly-lesser value deal for a team to pick up the entirety of his contract, it’s still going to cost someone like the Mets a valuable piece to get a deal done. The name I’ve seen floated around most so far is Steven Matz. At some point, the Mets need to think long and hard about what they have in Matz and if it’s more useful turning a young pitcher with as much injury questions as upside into a piece like Gordon to build out their line-up.

There’s a scenario where the Mets could sign Frazier and trade for Gordon. That would definitely provide the line-up length and flexibility the team desires, and makes them even more lethal if David Wright can be healthy for any stretch of the season, moving Cabrera to a utility role.

In terms of short-term solutions for Conforto, the Mets may consider names like Howie Kendrick (who could also be a solution for second base if they don’t go trade route) on a short-term deal, or even consider signing Ichiro Suzuki to a one-year deal to help the team at the beginning of the season.

If the Mets sign Frazier, either sign Kendrick or trade for Dee Gordon and add a veteran bat to the outfield to cover for Conforto’s early-season injury, you have a playoff-caliber line-up. But that’s a massive if.[/text_output]