Given his growing popularity in key demographics among the Democratic Party, coupled with the overcrowded field dominated by moderates, Sanders’ path to victory has been projected by Mock Convention to be won through a contested convention. Evaluating the field of candidates and projecting no clear frontrunner by the Democratic National Convention, the Political Team foresees Sanders will enter the Convention with a strong plurality, but not enough to win the required 1,991 pledged delegates on the first ballot.

The overcrowded field of moderates complicates the Democratic Primary because it offers multiple moderate alternatives, watering down any majority support and paving the way for Sanders to grasp a strong enough plurality of delegates, as the focal liberal candidate. Per the official Democratic National Convention rules, if no candidate receives a majority of pledged delegates on the first ballot, the nomination moves to a second ballot upon which unpledged delegates may submit their votes.