Latest Opinium/Observer poll shows 51% would opt to leave EU compared with 49% who would vote to stay in

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

A majority of the electorate would vote for the UK to leave the European Union, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll.

When asked how they would vote in a referendum on membership, 51% said they would opt to leave compared to 49% who would vote to stay in.

The polling found that 41% believed that the EU is generally a good thing for the UK, while a third (34%) said it is generally a bad thing.

David Cameron has promised that a Tory government would offer the British people a referendum by 2017. Ed Miliband has said that such a vote would only happen under Labour if there was a major treaty change.

According to the new polling, 29% said they most trust the Conservatives to handle the UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU, while 23% said they most trust Labour and 13% said they trusted Ukip.

One in ten (11%) said they trusted none of the parties to handle the UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU.

Meanwhile the Conservatives have taken a two-point lead, their first since Opinium started polling, and highest share of the vote, since March 2012.

The Conservatives have risen by two points since a week ago to 35%, while Labour has correspondingly dropped two points to 33%. Ukip has risen slightly to 15%.

Once again the Greens have squeezed into fourth place on 7%, while the Lib Dems drop two points to 6%.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,975 GB adults aged 18+ from 17 to 20 February 2015. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.