With four years to go until it hosts the Olympics, Tokyo has already had to contend with several crises. Controversy over the cost and design of the main stadium forced the organisers to invite submissions for a second design; the original logo had to be scrapped amid plagiarism claims; and the Guardian revealed that the city’s Olympic bidders had made suspicious payments to a secret bank account.



And in June, just as Tokyo’s preparations were picking up speed, its governor, Yoichi Masuzoe, resigned over an expenses scandal, leaving the city momentarily rudderless until his replacement, Yuriko Koike, was elected at the end of July. The Rio Games will at least have provided Tokyo’s delegation to Brazil with a pleasant diversion while they await the results of a French investigation into the financial probity of the 2020 bid.

An investigation set up by the Japanese Olympic committee said on Thursday it had found no evidence of illegality in the payments, which were made to a firm linked to the son of the disgraced former world athletics chief Lamine Diack.

But the organisational mishaps and rows over cost – seemingly a rite of passage for any city preparing to host the biggest sports event on earth – have overshadowed issues that potentially pose an even greater threat to Japan’s first summer Games since 1964.



While under pressure to make good on their promise to deliver the most environmentally friendly Olympics ever, the organisers must also confront the possibility of a two-pronged attack in the form of cyber warfare and a catastrophic earthquake.



Preparing for natural disasters

Japan accounts for a large share of the world’s most powerful earthquakes and is still far from making a complete recovery from the triple disaster that struck the Tohoku region on its north-east coast in March 2011. While that quake set in motion a tsunami that would sweep away entire towns and villages, the skyscrapers of Tokyo swayed and creaked, but emerged largely unscathed.



Living with the ever-present threat of the Big One – a huge quake that experts say is due to strike Tokyo in the coming decades – has turned the city into the world capital of disaster readiness, according to 2020 organising officials.



A man adjusts a display for a Tokyo 2020 countdown event at the city’s Haneda airport. Photograph: Shizuo Kambayashi/AP

“Japan has developed the world’s most advanced construction technologies and has the strictest anti-earthquake requirements and earthquake resistance construction standards in the world – these will apply to all venues to be used at the Tokyo 2020 Games,” said Hikariko Ono, spokesperson for the Tokyo 2020 organising committee.



Disaster countermeasures include seismic retrofitting for existing facilities so that they meet the country’s stringent earthquake-resistance standards, the construction of earthquake-resistant buildings, including accommodation at the athletes’ village, emergency response drills and the stockpiling of food and other essentials.



Natural disasters aside, Tokyo’s bid benefited from its reputation for public safety; in 2015, the Economist Intelligence Unit named it the safest city in the world, even though it is also the most populous.



Ono said Tokyo’s Olympic organisers were “delighted by the result”, adding, “as far as Tokyo 2020 is concerned, we will exert our utmost efforts into delivering a safe and secure Games and contribute to enhancing Tokyo’s and Japan’s reputation for safety”.



Christian Dimmer, an assistant professor in the urban studies department at Tokyo University, said the city could even enhance its reputation for safety, provided a major earthquake didn’t strike over the next four years. “With growing socio-political tensions in many other megacities around the world, Tokyo should not only retain its lead in the global safety rankings but actually move further ahead of its rivals,” he said.



Dimmer, who has written extensively about the reconstruction of the tsunami-hit north-east coast, noted Japan’s complex and sophisticated engineering solutions to disaster mitigation, but said other countries could learn from its centuries-old experience in community-based disaster risk reduction and preparedness.



“There is a long tradition of community organisations, non-profits, local governments and neighbourhood associations closely collaborating in disaster risk management and awareness building,” he said. “Such strong social networks, in turn, have come to be recognised as key to foster community resilience.”



A powerful earthquake hit southern Japan in April 2016. Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

The threat from cyberspace

While it continues to improve its ability to ride out whatever seismic disasters might come its way, Japan is less adept at countering potential manmade threats to the smooth functioning of the 2020 Games.



It was given a foretaste of what happens to vulnerable computer networks last year, with a massive leak of personal information by the Japan Pension Service that was blamed on hackers.



In response, the government revised cybersecurity laws to dramatically expand the scope of networks that require monitoring and, if necessary, a quick response.



Ensuring cybersecurity will be a multilateral effort, involving the central government, the 2020 organising committee and the Tokyo metropolitan government, as well as the city’s police and fire departments, according to a spokesperson for the Tokyo metropolitan government.



Minimising the risk of crippling cyber-attacks will be the job of a newly formed cybersecurity strategy team led by the chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, and staffed by experts from the public and private sectors.



Japan’s communications ministry will train 50,000 people in cybersecurity over the next four years to guard against a range of eventualities, including attacks on the official Olympic website and, more importantly, online ticket sales.



David Murakami Wood, Canada research chair in surveillance studies at Queen’s University in Ontario, believes the biggest threat comes from hackers targeting Tokyo’s infrastructure and critical systems.



“So much now relies on digital systems. Security practices are generally poor and all kinds of things could result, from the embarrassment of a ransomware type of attack, which pulls down websites and holds them hostage, to something serious like a trojan inserted into the systems that control the electrical grid,” he said.



Despite engaging in “security theatre” by increasing its pool of cybersecurity rapid responders, Japan will be largely dependent on US expertise, he added. “The US, and therefore the National Security Agency, is effectively running Japan’s cybersecurity. It’s not an option available to every country, or indeed something that many countries would want.”



Towards sustainability

The countdown to 2020 has presented Tokyo with its best opportunity yet to confront its energy use, an area in which Japan has struggled to make progress since the Fukushima disaster forced the closure of all its nuclear power plants and deepened its dependence on imported fossil fuels.



While the national energy mix adjusts to post-Fukushima realities, Tokyo’s environmental masterplan, published in March, is an ambitious attempt to put the capital on the path towards sustainability as the Games approach, including a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030, from 2000 levels.



In addition to the permanent venues for the 2020 Games, Tokyo’s organisers plan to create 433 hectares of new green areas across the city and plant 1m roadside trees. Officials say the addition of large areas of greenery will enhance the Olympic experience for overseas visitors who are already flocking to the city’s clean, safe streets in record numbers.

“Regardless of whether or not we can maintain [the Economic Intelligence Unit] ranking until 2020, as a city, we will work to ensure that our residents are as safe and secure as possible,” the government spokesperson said. “And as a result, we would be delighted to continue to be recognised for our efforts.”



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