They’ve got Chuck Schumer and Robert Menendez.

But Republicans need a whole lot more Democrats to have any hope of derailing President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.


Indeed, the most pressing question at this point is whether they can even get the 60 votes in opposition that are needed to break a filibuster and get a disapproval resolution to Obama’s desk. Senate Majority Mitch McConnell himself has all but said overriding a veto isn’t going to happen as Congress prepares to vote on the deal when it returns from its monthlong recess in September.

The announcements by Schumer two weeks ago and then Menendez on Tuesday certainly were a boon to Republican lawmakers and groups still holding out hope of squelching the controversial accord. But after those two New York-area senators, it becomes more difficult to identify other Democrats who’ll be willing to break with Obama on his signature foreign policy initiative.

Even the opposition by Schumer and Menendez may pack less punch than it might appear at first blush. Schumer, the presumptive Democratic leader-in-waiting, insists he isn’t whipping fellow Democrats to join him in voting against the deal. And the spring indictment of Menendez on corruption charges forced him to cede his status as Senate Democrats’ point man on foreign policy to the far less hawkish Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland.

“I don’t think many members were holding their breath for this announcement,” a senior Democratic aide said following Menendez’s hourlong takedown of the deal struck between Iran and a group of world powers.

The GOP started the summer hoping to override a presidential veto of an effort to disapprove of the deal with Iran. But that mission has given way in recent weeks to a less ambitious goal — merely passing a resolution of disapproval — as several swing Democrats broke the president’s way. If it becomes clear the GOP cannot get 60 votes, McConnell could still opt to hold a vote of approval to demonstrate the Iran deal lacks majority support in the Senate.

While there’s still technically a path to 67 “no” votes in the Senate, even McConnell acknowledged this week “the procedure is obviously stacked in the president’s favor.” Liberal support for the president in the House is also holding up, further dimming the possibility of a veto override.

That leaves the task of rounding up six Democrats to join with all 54 Republicans in opposition to the agreement with Iran and force Obama to veto the resolution of disapproval. There are ways to get there, with Senate Democratic leaders Harry Reid of Nevada and Patty Murray of Washington, as well as a number of centrist Democrats still undecided.

But the math remains firmly on Obama’s side.

Menendez’s rejection of the deal comes on the heels of similar decisions by Schumer, Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker of Tennessee and Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, who appeared Obama’s best hope of Republican support. But that momentum has been blunted by a steady march of support among Senate Democrats like Jon Tester of Montana, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Al Franken of Minnesota, a prominent Jewish politician.

Late Tuesday afternoon, Rhode Island Democratic Sens. Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse became the latest supporters of the Iran deal, joining an ideologically diverse group that includes Sen. Angus King of Maine, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Bill Nelson of Florida, among the first Democrats to advocate for an up-or-down vote on the deal.

And other wavering lawmakers are feeling no rush to seize the media spotlight during the dogs days of summer and announce a position on Iran that will infuriate a bloc of their constituents no matter which position they take.

If Menendez’s vote were to influence anyone in the Senate, it’s would likely be fellow New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, who has forcefully defended Menendez’s record in the face of corruption allegations. But while Menendez said Tuesday at Seton Hall University that “the threat of the capability to develop a nuclear weapon would truly be permanent” under the deal, Booker is still making up his mind. He’s headed back to Washington on Thursday for more Iran briefings after hearing from constituents for two weeks.

“The most important question that needs to be asked and answered when evaluating the proposed Iran agreement is whether it will credibly prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Booker said in a statement to POLITICO Tuesday. “I want to hear all angles.”

One Democratic lawmaker seen as vital to the GOP’s Iran efforts is Delaware Sen. Chris Coons. But he’s going to Africa for eight days on Thursday and does not plan to make a formal announcement before that, his office said. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is on a similar timeline; his office says he will decide no earlier than Aug. 31.

And traditionally moderate Democrats are also keeping their cards close to the vest. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is still leaning toward supporting the deal but has told people close to him he won’t go public with a decision until he returns to Washington in September.

Ditto for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.).

“She’s still doing her due diligence,” an aide said.

Though the pool of undecided Democrats is large enough to invite varying scenarios for next month’s decisive vote, Republicans would need several reliable backers of the president’s foreign policy to defy him. Senate Minority Leader Reid and fellow leadership member Murray are still withholding their support, as is Cardin, a stalwart Obama supporter.

Other undecided Democrats could still vote to break a filibuster, including Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Ron Wyden of Oregon. But if they reject the deal, they will face the same reaction that Menendez received on Tuesday afternoon: Praise from Republicans, vitriol from the left.

“Sen. Menendez may be adept at playing a war hawk, but he is a sorry excuse for a Democratic senator,” said Ilya Sheyman of MoveOn.org, one of several liberal groups on Tuesday to suggest Menendez wants war with Iran.

While Flake’s announcement of opposition was a blow to the president, the GOP still hasn’t locked up unanimous support in the Senate. Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine did not sign an open letter to Iranian leadership earlier this year led by Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, and neither has yet come out against the Iran deal, aides said.