Two important things happened this week that may affect the outcome of the election. Not this election, of course. I mean the next one. The outcome of this election is not seriously in doubt. But some of the things that will decide the next one are being decided now.

First, when nominations for candidates closed at 4pm on Thursday, the Corbynites had succeeded in getting only one more of their number selected in a winnable seat: Laura Pidcock in Durham North West. This is not enough to get another Corbynite on the ballot in a Labour leadership election. They need 15 per cent of Labour MPs and MEPs to nominate a candidate. Although Corbynite MPs tend to be in safe seats – Corbynism can thrive only if it is well insulated from the views of swing voters – Labour would have to go below 25 per cent of the vote and 140 MPs for Rebecca Long-Bailey to reach the threshold. Bad as the election might be for Labour, I don’t think it is going to be that bad.

That is it for Long-Bailey, then. Like a queen bee, the shadow Business Secretary is being fed, protected and groomed by the worker bees of Momentum and John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor. But she will not be a candidate next time round. Labour MPs are not going to make that mistake again, of nominating someone with whom they disagree for the sake of widening the debate.

UK General Election 2017 Show all 47 1 /47 UK General Election 2017 UK General Election 2017 12 June 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May leaves 10 Downing Street for the 1922 committee on June 12, 2017 in London, England. British Prime Minister Theresa May held her first cabinet meeting with her re-shuffled team today Getty Images UK General Election 2017 12 June 2017 DUP leader Arlene Foster stands alongside deputy leader Nigel Dodds as they hold a press conference at Stormont Castle as the Stormont assembly power sharing negotiations reconvene following the general election on June 12, 2017 in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Discussions between the DUP and the Conservative party are also continuing in the wake of the UK general election as Prime Minister Theresa May looks to form a government with the help of the Democratic Unionist parties ten Westminster seats. 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Getty Images UK General Election 2017 12 June 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May (C, L) holds the first Cabinet meeting of her new team. Getty UK General Election 2017 11 June 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May attends church in her constituency with her husband Philip May, a few days after disappointing results in a general election. Rex Features UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Leader of the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn leaves Labour Party HQ this morning, following a general election yesterday. Parliament is hung, with no individual party gaining an overall majority. Post general election reaction. Rex UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 BELFAST, NORTHERN IRELAND - JUNE 09: DUP leader and Northern Ireland former First Minister Arlene Foster (C) holds a brief press conference with the DUP's newly elected Westminster candidates who stood in the general election Getty Images UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 A " Get May Out" demo took place opposite the gates of Downing Street, calling for May to resign, after the shock election results and Mays coalition with the DUP. Rex Features UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 A demonstrator wears a mask depicting Britain's Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party Theresa May, poses with a mock gravestone bearing the words "Hard Brexit, RIP", during a protest photocall near the entrance 10 Downing Street in central London AFP/Getty Images UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at the Conservative Party's headquarters in London Reuters UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Britain's Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party Theresa May flanked by her husband Philip delivers a statement outside 10 Downing Street in central Londo Getty UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Britain's Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party Theresa May leaves Buckingham Palace in London the day after a general election in which the Conservatives lost their majority Getty Images UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 A TV cameraman watches the door of 10 Downing Street in London Getty Images UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is greeted by his Office Director Karie Murphy as he arrives at Labour Party HQ in Westminster, London, after he called on the Prime Minister to resign, saying she should 'go and make way for a government that is truly representative of this country' Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at the Conservative Party's headquarters with her husband Philip in London REUTERS/Peter Nicholls UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Ukip leader Paul Nuttall speaks during a press conference at Boston West Golf Club where he announced that he is standing down as party leader Joe Giddens/PA UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, leaves the counting centre for Britain's general election with her partner Jen Wilson in Edinburgh, Scotland REUTERS/Russell Cheyne UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale celebrates with candidate for Edinburgh South Ian Murray as he retains his seat at the Meadowbank Sports Centre counting centre in Edinburgh, Scotland Getty Images UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 First Minister Nicola Sturgeon speaks to the media at the Emirates Arena in Glasgow, as counting is under way for the General Election Andrew Milligan/PA Wire UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson at Meadowbank Sports Centre in Edinburgh, as counting is under way for the General Election PA UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon reacts at the Emirates Arena in Glasgow, Scotland EPA UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 Jeremy Corbyn, leader of Britain's opposition Labour Party, arrives at the Labour Party's Headquarters in London REUTERS/Marko Djurica UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall leaves in a car following the vote count for the constituency of Boston and Skegness in Boston, England Anthony Devlin/Getty Images UK General Election 2017 9 June 2017 British Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Theresa May speaks at the declaration at the election count at the Magnet Leisure Centre in Maidenhead, England. Getty Images UK General Election 2017 8 June 2017 A policer officer enters a polling station in London AP UK General Election 2017 8 June 2017 A woman leaves after casting her vote at the Hove Museum and Art Gallery near Brighton, in southern England Getty UK General Election 2017 8 June 2017 A polling station sign is seen on a telephone box outside the polling station at Rotherwick Hall, west of London Getty UK General Election 2017 7 June 2017 A woman walks past a general election display in the window of a betting shop in Camden on June 7, 2017 in London, United Kingdom. Britain goes to the polls tomorrow, Getty Images UK General Election 2017 7 June 2017 Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May visits Atherley Bowling Club during an election campaign visit on June 7, 2017 in Southampton, England. Britain goes to the polls tomorrow June 8 to vote in a general election. Getty Images UK General Election 2017 6 June 2017 A supporter wears a pair of Jeremy Corbyn decorated tights at a general election campaign event in Birmingham, central England, on June 6, 2017. Britain goes to the polls on June 8 to vote in a general election only days after another deadly terror attack in the nation's captial. AFP/Getty Images UK General Election 2017 6 June 2017 A picture taken in London, shows election leaflets from various parties displayed ahead of the United Kingdom's general elections. Britain goes to the polls on June 8 to vote in a general election only days after another terrorist attack on the nation's capital AFP/Getty Images UK General Election 2017 6 June 2017 Election workers, George Gaunt and Luca Tragid deliver the first ballot boxes, on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh AFP UK General Election 2017 6 June 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May meets with Conservative party supporters during an election campaign visit to a bakery during an election campaign visit on June 6, 2017 in Fleetwood, north-west England. Britain goes to the polls on June 8 to vote in a general election only days after another terrorist attack on the nation's capital Getty Images UK General Election 2017 5 June 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks during a general election campaign visit to a removals depot in Edinburgh AFP/Getty Images UK General Election 2017 3 June 2017 Pro-Independence supporters hold a march through Glasgow AFP/Getty Images UK General Election 2017 3 June 2017 Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigns for the upcoming general election in Beeston, Nottinghamshire AFP/Getty Images UK General Election 2017 3 June 2017 Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn reacts to supporters after a rally at Beeston Youth and Community Centre as he visits the East Midlands during the final weekend of the General Election campaign on June 3, 2017 in Nottingham, England. If elected in next week's general election Mr Corbyn is pledging to create a million new jobs and to scrap zero-hours contracts Getty Images UK General Election 2017 1 June 2017 Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party leader Ruth Davidson joins a selection of Scottish Conservative election candidates and activists during campaigning on May 1, 2017 in South Queensferry, Scotland. With only seven days to go until the general election on June 8th, polls are showing the SNP out in front and the Conservatives set to close in on Labour. Getty Images UK General Election 2017 29 May 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May canvasses in Richmond with Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith on May 29, 2017 in London, United Kingdom. After suffering defeat in the London Mayoral election Zac Goldsmith resigned over the Government's position on Heathrow expansion. He stood as an Independent but lost in a by-election to the Liberal Democrats. Britain goes to the polls on June 8 to elect a new parliament in a general election Getty Images UK General Election 2017 22 May 2017 Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron poses for a selfie taken by carer April Preston during a General Election campaign visit to the Barlow Medical Centre, in Didsbury, Manchester Yui Mok/PA UK General Election 2017 22 May 2017 Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May speaks at an election campaign event in Wrexham, Wales Reuters UK General Election 2017 22 May 2017 Britain's main opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, and Labour's former deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, exit the party's general election campaign 'battle' bus as they arrive at an event in Kingston upon Hull, northern England Getty Images UK General Election 2017 22 May 2017 Britain's main opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn walks with supporters between venues, before speaking again at another general election campaign event in Kingston upon Hull, northern England Getty Images UK General Election 2017 22 May 2017 An anti-fox hunting protester is taken away and arrested by police outside the venue where Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May was due to launch the Welsh Conservative general election manifesto at Gresford Memorial Hall in the village of Gresford, near Wrexham, North Wales, on May 22, 2017. 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If Momentum wants to keep the leadership, then, it must prevail on Jeremy Corbyn to stay on. As was established in court last year, as incumbent leader, he does not need nominations to stand again. We can ignore for the moment the talk of changing the rules: the so-called McDonnell amendment to reduce the threshold, to make it easier for another Corbynite to stand. I don’t think that rule change would get through Labour conference but it doesn’t matter anyway, because there will be a leadership election in September, before the rules can be changed. Several candidates will stand, whether Corbyn stays or goes.

Corbyn’s people insist privately that he will stay on even if Labour lose, but they have an interest in putting pressure on him to do so. He will be 68 later this month and, although his resilience and fight in this campaign has been impressive, we cannot know what he will do on 9 June. He plainly feels a strong sense of duty to the cause, but he is also human.

Even if he stays on, though, we are moving towards the end of the Corbynite experiment. After a big general election defeat, Corbyn can lose. Many of the 313,000 members and supporters who voted for him last year did so because they thought he hadn’t been given a fair chance. Many of them have been disillusioned by his incompetence and his support for Brexit, but what will really change attitudes is election defeat. He will have been given his chance, and even if they still believe in him, they will be discouraged by the failure of the voters to respect his mandate.

General election polls and projections: May 13

As Owen Smith learnt the hard way last year, however, you cannot beat somebody with nobody. So the all-important question – after “Will Corbyn stand?” – is who the other candidates would be. Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umunna will definitely stand, I am told. But I am not sure either of them can beat Corbyn. Corbyn supporters may be disillusioned with their leader on 9 June, but they still see Cooper and Umunna as Blairites and therefore worse than Tories. Cooper, 48, as chair of the Home Affairs select committee, has cut through with her plea for compassion for refugees. Her embryo leadership campaign is already running ads on Facebook. But she voted for the Iraq war, which is still important to large numbers of the Labour selectorate. Umunna, 38, is probably the best communicator, but people are reluctant to rally to him after he ducked out after a few days last time.

Of the rest on the bookmakers’ lists, Keir Starmer, 54, has not yet broken through. Clive Lewis, 45, has broken with Corbyn without gaining much support elsewhere (and may lose his seat). Dan Jarvis, 44, seems to have wandered off. And David Miliband, 51, failed to get himself a seat.

That leaves Lisa Nandy, 37, who was shadow Energy Secretary until last June. She has the “soft left” profile that could appeal to former Corbynites, but as far as I can tell, she isn’t interested in the leadership. If she decided to go for it, though, she would be in a strong position.

Shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner has hinted tuition fees would be scrapped by Labour (Getty)

Which brings us to the other thing that happened this week. At the Labour manifesto meeting on Thursday, Angela Rayner, also 37, the shadow Education Secretary, clashed with McDonnell. She wanted less emphasis on the promise to phase out tuition fees, and more on early years education. This is important because she is right. Abolishing tuition fees is expensive and it is the wrong priority: a subsidy to people who will tend to be better off. But it is also significant because she is prepared to distance herself from the Corbyn-McDonnell leadership, to which she has been loyal.

Admittedly, Rayner had a terrible five minutes the day before, when Nick Ferrari of LBC asked her how many children aged five to seven are in classes larger than 30 – her main election pledge being to cut those class sizes. The answer is 500,000, but all she could say was that it is a “substantial number”. If she can learn from her mistake, though, she could be a formidable candidate. Her life story, leaving school at 16, single parent, care worker and union rep, is a parable of how a Labour government lifted up a working-class northerner.