Peter Bouckaert could hardly believe his eyes. As Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi lay dying in October 2011, rebel militias were speedily stripping the carcass of the regime of the vast arsenals of weapons that had ensured his 42-year reign.

“I’ve worked around the world and covered conflicts for 15 years,” Bouckaert, veteran emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, told The Star last fall. “I’ve never seen weapons proliferation like Libya. The militias got their hands on weapons on a scale many times greater than other conflicts.”

As he watched, anti-aircraft guns, truckloads of munitions, surface-to-air missiles, even tanks were disappearing into the desert, bound for unknown destinations.

Now those same deadly weapons are surfacing in Mali, where rebel militias allied with Al Qaeda have declared a breakaway state in the north, and are battling French and Malian forces as they attempt to hold new territory in the central part of the country.

The Libyan weapons are flowing unchecked through the chain of impoverished, unstable countries across the Sahel region. And experts who warned of the risk posed by uncontrolled Libyan arms say that whatever the outcome of the fighting in Mali they have changed the balance of power in the region, threatening havoc and instability for years to come.

“There’s no doubt that the weapons that went on the loose in Libya ended up supercharging the conflict in Mali,” said Bouckaert this week from Geneva,

“Gadhafi had worked with Tuareg mercenaries for years, and they were his most loyal, experienced supporters. As Libya collapsed they came back to Mali with weapons and set up militias there.”

Western leaders have been surprised by the volume of weaponry in Mali, and the rebels’ ability to fight back against technologically superior French forces. On Friday the rebels lost at least one key town in central Mali, but still control the northern two-thirds of the country.

“One of the greatest failures of the international community was not to secure the vast weapons stockpiles that existed in Libya,” said Bouckaert. “We’re talking about stockpiles 10 times greater than any other conflict zone I’ve worked in — (not just) AK-47s but heavy weapons of war.”

The UN was concerned enough to do a detailed assessment of the threat of looted Libyan weapons. A report to the Security Council in March 2012 found “clear evidence of significant quantities of weapons having left Libya during the conflict” and it condemned the newly formed government’s “lack of control over brigades and their stockpiles.”

Among the weapons in Gadhafi’s arsenal were rocket-propelled grenades, machine-guns with anti-aircraft visors, automatic rifles, grenades and light anti-aircraft artillery.

The report said no “man portable” air defence systems — used to shoot down aircraft — have been seized outside Libya. However, only 5,000 of an estimated 20,000 stockpiled by Gadhafi are accounted for.

It warned some of the weapons smuggled over the borders may be hidden in the desert or “sold to terrorist groups like Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Boko Haram or other criminal organizations.”

“All the militias are involved in selling weapons,” an unnamed former rebel leader who fought for Gadhafi told Inter Press Service. “The country’s security forces are too weak to control the situation, so selling weapons is regarded as legal by many of the rebels.”

It doesn’t help that the Sahel region is a vast convey belt of weapons.

“Within the region are a lot of armed groups — some separatist, some Islamist, some related to crime and trafficking,” said James Bevan, director of British-based Conflict Armament Research. “It’s both a destination and a conduit.”

The company, which tracks the movement of weapons and ammunition, documented a range of Libyan weapons that could change the regional balance of power.

“One thing we are certain of is that weapons out of Libya would give (the rebels) parity with the Malian military,” Bevan said. “It could give them parity with most adversaries and might give them a substantial edge.”

That’s part of a worrying trend in the fractured region, said Toronto-based Andrew McGregor, senior editor of the Jamestown Foundation’s global terrorism analysis program.

“In the past, Tuareg rebels were equipped with rifles and their rebellions met predictable ends,” he said. “With each rebellion they’ve got their hands on better weapons.

“The arrival of entire columns of weapons and munitions into northern Mali was a big game changer. It changed everything permanently. Now you have groups as well equipped as the state militaries they are facing.”

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It bodes ill for any Western countries that hope military aid will beef up the weak and fragmented Mali army fending off Islamist rebels and Al Qaeda clones.

“Large parts of the armies in the region are often reintegrated rebels. Joining the army is a good way of keeping your units intact, well fed, equipped and trained at the state’s expense,” McGregor said.

“You can go in and train them, but in the end if they turn against the democratically elected government you have a problem.”

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