There is perhaps no foreign leader more in tune with Donald Trump than Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Both men are unscripted, uninformed, and unburdened by the truth; they’ve whipped up devoted mass followings by breaking with conventions and using direct, simple language to preach a message of violence, hatred, victimhood, right-wing culture war, anti-science, and “anti-globalism.” Bolsonaro has difficulty staying on script in person, despite a proclivity for putting his foot in his mouth, and he loves to use Twitter to belittle and attack enemies, decry “fake news” even when the reporting is demonstrably true, and praise right-wing torturers and dictators. Sound familiar? It is unsurprising, therefore, that Bolsonaro, who took office in January, insisted that his first visit to a foreign capital be Washington, D.C., and Trump was eager to oblige. On Tuesday, the two men are scheduled to meet at the White House and have lunch (there was not enough time to arrange a full state visit). The far-right leaders are expected to discuss the push to oust Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, economic and trade cooperation, Brazil’s bid to enter the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and sign a deal to allow U.S. rocket launches from a Brazilian base. For the U.S., Venezuela is the key issue, while the Brazilians are more focused on economic accords. The trip is meant to signal strengthened ties between two ideological allies, but the practical results will likely be limited. Bolsonaro’s team hopes to leave the meeting with multiple major signed agreements, but due to the rushed nature of the preparations, that seems unlikely. Bolsonaro confirmed in a livestream that the two countries will sign an agreement almost 20 years in the making to permit the U.S. to launch satellites and rockets into space from Brazil’s Alcântara Launch Center without sharing U.S. intellectual property. Its location near the equator would allow for rocket launches to use 30 percent less fuel. The deal had stalled over national sovereignty concerns.



A rocket launch tower at Alcântara Launch Center in the northeastern Brazilian state of Maranhão on Sept. 14, 2018. Photo: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

According to a Brazilian diplomat involved in the negotiations who is prohibited from discussing them publicly, the Alcântara deal will likely be the only major achievement. The delegation also expects to sign minor accords on exchanges between the Brazilian Federal Police and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, as well as NASA and the Brazilian Space Agency. They plan to announce their intention to create a $100 million fund for small businesses operating in the Amazon region and establish working groups to study the reduction of trade barriers. The U.S. is not expected to back Brazil’s bid to join the OECD, a Brazilian priority. Nor do they plan to sign a bilateral agreement to grant expedited customs processing for select operators, Brazil’s inclusion in the Global Entry border fast-lane program, or reach an agreement to open the U.S. market to Brazilian beef exports. The Brazilians are considering the reduction of tariffs on U.S. wheat and scrapping the requirement of tourist visas for U.S. citizens. Bolsonaro Needs Some Good News This is Bolsonaro’s second trip abroad as president; he was widely criticized for a weak showing on his first trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Later this month, he will travel to Chile and Israel, just days before their legislative elections. Bolsonaro is far more popular than his most recent predecessors, but his domestic approval ratings have dipped to 39 percent as internal squabbling, strategic missteps, and a series of corruption scandals have quickly usurped his campaign narrative of a disciplined, moral leader untainted by the corruption that plagues the capital. The trip may grant him a momentary reprieve from the countless crises — many of his own making — that continue to encircle him in Brasília. At the White House, Bolsonaro will get to mug for the cameras with Trump, whom he’s already referred to as “an example” and never misses a chance to publicly flatter. But in the end, his political future hinges on dragging the economy out of years of languor, though recent economic indicators have been ticking down alongside his popularity. His administration’s strategy on that front is to push through wildly unpopular austerity measures to roll out the red carpet for foreign investment, particularly from the United States. The visit is designed to signal positive steps in that direction, even if it is unlikely to produce any substantial breakthroughs.



Bolsonaro shakes hands with the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, at the Planalto Palace in the Brazilian capital, Brasília, on Feb. 28, 2019. The meeting was a show of support for the U.S.-backed opposition to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Photo: Antonio Cruz/Agência Brasil

Trump Wants Help With Venezuela Trump, for his part, has made it clear that he wants to support his new ideological ally, despite some misgivings within the administrative ranks. The U.S.-Brazilian bilateral trade relationship has been rocky for years, particularly under the 13 years of Workers’ Party administrations that sought to contain U.S. influence in the hemisphere. Grudges remain. However, Trump’s main concern in the region at the moment is Venezuela. After launching a risky regime change campaign against Maduro in January, the administration and its allies have little to show for it except a string of failures. The threat of military intervention is still officially on the table, but increasingly appears to be a bluff as allies have backed away from that rhetoric, but the U.S. has tightened economic sanctions. “There will be an expectation on the American side that Bolsonaro can show that he is truly committed to ramping up the pressure” on Maduro, says Matias Spektor, associate professor of international relations at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation. “No one in Washington expects Brazil to intervene” militarily, says Spektor, “what they’re asking for is ramping up the diplomatic pressure,” including the implementation of economic sanctions of their own against Venezuela. In an interview to the Financial Times last week, Vice President Hamilton Mourão said “the political pressure is there,” but “economic pressure” from Brazil would have limited impact since Venezuelan officials who might be targeted “don’t have their assets [in Brazil].” Mourão is a former general and represents the line of thinking of the Brazilian military, which has been a moderating force on the issue, a counterbalance to Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo’s more aggressive posture. Rifts Within the Bolsonaro Coalition The Venezuela crisis is one of many recent episodes that have laid bare the divisions within the Bolsonaro administration, which roughly shakes out into four main groups: military, evangelicals, old guard conservative politicians, and new far-right outsiders loyal to their pseudo-intellectual, conspiracy theory-peddling guru Olavo de Carvalho. Bolsonaro, a former army captain, embodies shades of each group. When it came to cabinet posts and top advisory positions, he has favored the military faction, loading his administration with generals. But his rhetoric and the actions of his sons — a Rio city council member, a federal deputy, and a federal senator — who have significant influence over their father, tend toward the Carvalho camp. Carvalho has publicly questioned whether the Earth revolves around the sun. On Saturday, he made comments that were sharply critical of the military’s role in the administration: “If everything continues as it is, it is already bad. You do not have to change anything to be bad. Just keep it up. In six months, it’s over.” While the military, old guard conservatives, and evangelicals tend to hew toward a more protectionist and incrementalist view of foreign policy, the new far right has a strong ideological vision that wants to radically break with tradition in ways that often put them shoulder to shoulder with Trump.