Eight years after 9/11, many analysts are saying that Al Qaeda is finished. That’s not true. The inner circle of that organization is much reduced; Egyptian intelligence told me a couple of years ago that it numbers about two hundred men, and the C.I.A. estimates it contains perhaps three hundred to five hundred. Certainly it’s nowhere near its pre-9/11 strength. But from Al Qaeda’s perspective, things aren’t all bleak.

Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are still free. Moreover, since November 2001, when Mohammed Atef, Al Qaeda’s military chief, was killed by an American bomb, not a single member of the the shura council—the core of Al Qaeda—has been captured or killed. The propaganda arm is producing video and audio messages at a furious rate, and with excellent production qualities. Al Qaeda’s affiliates, especially in North Africa and Yemen, have been murderously active. The Taliban, Al Qaeda’s greatest ally, is making a comeback in Afghanistan and threaten much of western Pakistan. The fact that Al Qaeda is still kicking, twenty-one years after its founding, is a testament to its adaptability—and to the failure of the U.S. and its allies to penetrate the organization.

Al Qaeda certainly is under pressure and in danger of losing its relevance to radical or disaffected Muslims around the world, but who would really be surprised to discover another bomb—or a trademark simultaneous, multiple attack—once again in a Western city? Many hope Al Qaeda has been put to sleep, but the truth is, as long as bin Laden is free, he and his followers pose a threat.