Guardian writers’ predicted position: 6th

Last season’s position: 10th (or dead last if you don’t want to sugarcoat things)

It’s getting on nine months since the slick, cashed-up City Football Group (CFG) and the luckless, shop-worn Melbourne Heart surprised most everyone by forming an alliance as unlikely as that of Richard Gere and Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman. Fans of Melbourne Heart might argue over whether their princess was in need of rescuing by a white knight (particularly one so keen on sowing his seed), but the Heart’s head had been turned and those fans had no say in it. So behind closed doors the champagne flowed, candles were lit, lights were hit and, lo, the Melbourne City Football Club was conceived.

City have already played in the FFA Cup (a 3-1 loss to Sydney FC) and stretched their legs in a number of friendlies at home and in the UK —where they drew 1-1 with Oldham and beat a Bolton XI 5-1— but on Saturday night against Sydney FC they’ll make their debut in the A-League. While midfielder Massimo Murdocca has said recently that it feels like he’s playing at a brand new club embarking on a new beginning, the official line is that City are really just a rebranded Heart given a makeover.

Indeed, City will for a few years yet have a strong genetic link to the Heart, which may just buy the grace of the club’s old fan base, some of whom may have not yet decided if they still have a club to follow in the A-League. Heart coach John van’ t Schip has been kept on by CFG – which owns an 80% share in the club – as have a core group of 2013-14 Heart players such as Murdocca, last year’s top-scorer David Williams, Mate Dugandzic, Patrick Kisnorbo, Rob Wielaert, Jason Hoffman, Nick Kalmar, Iain Ramsay, Jonatan Germano and Andrew Redmayne. Just as they’ve been retained so too have the Heart’s red-and-white stripes, albeit as an away strip. It would have been callous of CFG not to do this – bad business, even – but nevertheless it may appease old fans who, quite rightly, are sentimental about such details.

As a side note, one wonders, however, what to make of player profiles on the City website and seeing the rewriting of history. Mentions of Melbourne Heart have simply been replaced with Melbourne City. Could this cause a tear in the space-time continuum? Hoffman, for instance, “was signed in 2010 as a member of the inaugural Melbourne City FC squad”. Not bad considering City were still more than four years away from existing.

If some of the Heart’s DNA has been retained others City will strive to jettison, such as the club’s annual struggle to make the finals. That will win over fans for a start. In the Heart’s four-year existence they managed to make the finals once – scraping in to sixth place in 2011-12. Last year was their worst and they finished last with just six wins from 27 matches. But the campaign had its moments. After failing to win a single game until round 15, the Heart rallied on the back of a coaching change (van’ t Schip for John Aloisi) and the belated availability of Dutchman Orlando Engelaar, a towering presence who gave the team the midfield fulcrum it had been missing. But after five straight wins – and a whiff of miracle every bit as beguiling as the scent of a BBQ from next door – the Heart faded again, their leaky defence and inability to covert chances into goals returning to scuttle them.

To the Heart’s credit, they attempted to play a possession-based brand of football – although they perhaps relied too heavily on the counter-attack – and they struggled to fashion good chances against a set defence. This year Van’ t Schip won’t be scrapping his desire for attacking football – something that aligns with the playing style of sister team, Manchester City – and on that front his current squad looks better equipped than last year’s. Competition for a midfield place looks particularly willing.

While the release of Engelaar, and the end of Aziz Behich’s loan period constitute a couple of notable losses – much more so than the oft-injured Harry Kewell and the misfiring mosquito Michael Mifsud, a man around whom barn doors could sleep easy – CFG have recruited well from within the A-League and abroad.

The most notable recruit, Spain’s all-time leading scorer, David Villa, is a doozy, and precisely why CFG’s move into Australian football has been both welcomed and feared. Given the outstanding striker was part of Spain’s 2014 World Cup squad and Atlético Madrid’s 2013-14 La Liga-winning team, he’s no has-been here merely to slip on some thongs and take a stroll among Australia’s beauties rich and rare. For all his star power, however, Villa is just a guest player, here primarily to get match-fit for other CFG-newbies New York City FC ahead of the Major League Soccer season and, while he’s at it, help build Melbourne City’s ‘brand’.

On that front he’ll surely be successful – and City’s 8,200 members to date have already surpassed the Heart’s best ever tally. But Villa – who arrived in Melbourne just two days ago, before (let’s pretend) getting the Skybus into the city then the No86 tram out to City’s training base at La Trobe University – is only here for a maximum of 10 games, and he’ll hardly play 90 minutes of each. His presence is good for the A-League and for the culture at City, but it remains to be seen what impact he will have in the context of the club’s season on the pitch. A burst of goals before he leaves could get the club off to a flier but Villa will be in New York long before the A-League reaches its pointy end.

More crucial, then, will be the performances and potential goals from former Chelsea and most recently Fulham winger Damien Duff, and the contributions of City’s international marquee player, Slovenian international Robert Koren who has spent the past seven years in the English Premier League, most recently as captain of Hull City. A midfielder with an attacking and creative bent, Koren is expected to fill Engelaar’s shoes, if not his actual shirt.

Also in the City sheds are former Brisbane Roar championship-winning defensive midfielder Erik Paartalu (coming to City by way of Thailand’s Muangthong United), former Western Sydney Wanderer Aaron Mooy, and promising ex-Newcastle Jets Connor Chapman and James Brown.

On paper this is a much-improved squad and they’re already enjoying the benefit of a stable home base at La Trobe Univerity where CFG have upgraded facilities. Last season there were weeks when the Heart trained at five different venues in a week. Such a peripatetic existence is hardly a good preparation for consistency on the pitch.

City are Australian football’s new glamour club without kicking a ball in the national league and big things are expected of them. And playing for CFG City players have higher expectations of themselves, Murdocca has said. But the revolution could take time to come together and it’s unrealistic – “outrageous” says Van ’t Schip – to expect a title challenge in year one, although many are doing just that. A finals berth, however, would be seen as an adequate start, while off the pitch the club will be keen to have Melbourne Victory looking nervously over their shoulder and, while City are at it, establishing for themselves a brand new heart. City should be mindful, however, at least in the short term, that they remember their old one.