by Brian Fremeau

It is tempting to put a lot of weight into the results of bowl games. It is even more tempting to be selective about particular game results before passing judgment.

The Big Ten conference had a very good day on January 1. All four Big Ten teams in the five bowl games played on Thursday were underdogs, but three came away with big wins over highly-ranked opponents. Wisconsin led the charge with an overtime victory over Auburn in the Outback Bowl, kicking a 29-yard field goal at the end of regulation after Auburn took the lead with less than three minutes left. Michigan State mounted a spectacular comeback against Baylor in the Cotton Bowl, erasing a 20-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter with three touchdowns and a blocked field goal to win. Ohio State trailed Alabama 21-6 midway through the second quarter but was dominant the rest of the way, scoring 28 straight and holding off the Crimson Tide 42-35.

Those three victories are worth celebrating for Big Ten fans. According to the opponent-adjusted single game efficiency ratings (GFEI) that form the basis of the weekly FEI ratings, they were the three best performances by Big Ten teams this bowl season. Each ranks among the best 150 single-game performances of the season, each ranking in the 90th percentile of all games played.

Only one of the three -- Ohio State's victory over Alabama -- ranks among the five best performances of the bowl season, however. The best five games played each ranks in the 98th percentile of FBS games this season.

Best Single-Game Opponent-Adjusted Bowl Performances Team Opponent Final NG Final GFEI GFEI

Rank TCU Horned Frogs Mississippi Rebels Won 42-3 42-0 .915 3 Oregon Ducks Florida State Seminoles Won 59-20 59-20 .913 4 Clemson Tigers Oklahoma Sooners Won 40-6 40-0 .706 19 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Mississippi State Bulldogs Won 49-34 49-27 .667 26 Ohio State Buckeyes Alabama Crimson Tide Won 42-35 42-35 .663 27

Which conference has had the best bowl season? Many sites track bowl results in terms of wins and losses alone. Among the Power 5 conferences in terms of bowl records, the Pac-12 leads the way with a 6-2 overall record, followed by the SEC (7-5), Big Ten (5-5), ACC (4-7), and Big 12 (2-5). Alternatively, we can rank each conference by their average GFEI ratings in bowl games. The table below presents the rankings for the Power 5 conferences according to average GFEI for all bowls and the average of each conference's best five GFEI bowl performances.

Power 5 Conferences By Average GFEI Bowl Ratings Conference Bowl

Record All Bowl

Average GFEI Rank Best Five Bowl

Average GFEI Rank Pac-12 6-2 .360 1 .523 1 SEC 7-5 .279 2 .424 4 Big Ten 5-5 .222 4 .459 2 ACC 4-7 .205 5 .452 3 Big 12 2-5 .251 3 .380 5

The Big Ten had a strong set of performances at the top, but also had some clunkers. Iowa's blowout loss to Tennessee and Maryland's blowout loss to Stanford both rank among the seven worst single-game GFEI performances of this bowl season. The Pac-12 not only were led by an exceptional GFEI performance by Oregon over Florida State in the Rose Bowl, but also had no clunkers. Each of their two bowl losses (Arizona to Boise State, Washington to Oklahoma State) were decided by a single score.

What impact has the overall bowl picture had on the FEI ratings? There were certainly some surprising results -- 20 of the 38 bowls were won by the Vegas underdog; FEI ratings fared somewhat better, picking 21 of 38 bowl winners correctly.

Some teams dropped significantly due to poor bowl performances. Oklahoma, Colorado State, and North Carolina, each of whom suffered a blowout bowl loss, dropped by at least 10 ranking positions each. Rutgers (40-21 winner over North Carolina, 40-7 in non-garbage time) jumped up 12 ranking positions as a result.

Overall, teams changed by an average ranking position of three spots from the pre-bowl rankings to this week. Florida State dropped from No. 4 to No. 7 following its Rose Bowl debacle. Ohio State moved up from No. 6 to No. 4. TCU moved up from No. 8 to No. 6. Baylor fell from No. 9 to No. 10. With few exceptions, the results of the bowl season did not have a dramatic impact on the overall FEI ratings. This is by design, of course. The bowl game is one of only a dozen single-game performances that constitute a team's season to date, and unless the game performance was a significant outlier in comparison to the rest of a team's performances, I didn't expect there to be much movement.

Ohio State and Oregon will play for the national championship next Monday after disposing of their opponents in the inaugural College Football Playoff semifinal games last week. Heading into the bowls, FEI would have projected a 66.7 percent win likelihood for the Ducks over the Buckeyes. Based on the latest FEI ratings, the Ducks have a 68.1 percent win likelihood. Both Ohio State and Oregon had their FEI ratings impacted by their individual bowl performances and by the collective performances of their opponents to date. The impact on Oregon's ratings was more significant.

Oregon Ducks GFEI Ratings Pre-Bowl vs. Post-Bowl Ohio State Buckeyes GFEI Ratings Pre-Bowl vs. Post-Bowl Opponent Pre-Bowl

GFEI Post-Bowl

GFEI GFEI

Delta Opponent Pre-Bowl

GFEI Post-Bowl

GFEI GFEI

Delta Michigan State .380 .422 .042 Navy .203 .203 .000 Wyoming .279 .277 -.002 Virginia Tech .073 .060 -.013 Washington State .113 .128 .015 Kent State .360 .360 .000 Arizona .198 .202 .004 Cincinnati .230 .222 -.008 UCLA .727 .754 .027 Maryland .426 .357 -.069 Washington .473 .455 -.018 Rutgers .499 .568 .069 California .288 .294 .006 Penn State .203 .238 .035 Stanford .733 .779 .046 Illinois .434 .420 -.014 Utah .574 .638 .064 Michigan State .632 .674 .042 Colorado .377 .378 .001 Minnesota .382 .341 -.041 Oregon State .471 .486 .015 Indiana .006 .008 .002 Arizona .802 .806 .004 Michigan .197 .205 .008 Florida State - .913 - Wisconsin .926 .946 .020 Alabama - .663 -

Only the GFEI ratings in Oregon's victories over Wyoming and Washington were negatively impacted by the results of bowl games. All 10 of their other GFEI ratings improved. And on top of that, they added their best GFEI rating of the year by throttling Florida State. For the Buckeyes, five of their GFEI performances to date dropped based on the results of bowl games, and though their win over Alabama was very good, it merely ranks as their third-best GFEI result to date. Ohio State's FEI rating improved, but Oregon's improved even more.

Oregon and Ohio State are the top two teams in the nation in game efficiency and offensive points per drive. Along with Georgia and TCU, the Ducks and Buckeyes are the only teams ranked among the top 25 in OFEI, DFEI, STE, and FPA. This promises to be a terrific title game. The FEI projections like Oregon by a final score of 35-31.

FEI 2014 Pre-Championship Ratings

[ad placeholder 4]

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Nearly 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Game Efficiency (GE) is a function of the starting field position and outcome of non-garbage possessions. Opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an "elite team" (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule. SOS listed here includes all games scheduled, including bowl games and playoff games. Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents.

Offensive FEI (OFEI) is opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency. Defensive FEI (DFEI) is opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency. Special Teams Efficiency (STE) is the composite efficiency of field goal kickoff, punt, and return units. Field Position Advantage (FPA) is the average share of field position value generated by offense, defense, and special teams efficiency.

These ratings are exclusively produced from 2014 game data and are not influenced by preseason projections. Complete ratings and ratings splits for all 128 FBS teams are available here. Supplemental data including points per drive, game splits, and game factors are available as well.