The Ortega government’s brutal repression of opposition has only fuelled unrest. There is no obvious path out of the crisis – but when the stakes are so high, one must be found

Nicaragua is in crisis, and on the brink of a still graver and bloodier conflict. President Daniel Ortega has lost control of the streets and the confidence of his people. More than 100 people have died since anti-government protests began six weeks ago, and over 1,000 have been injured; when pro-Ortega forces opened fire on a Mother’s Day march led by the mothers of victims last week, it galvanised opposition. Officials have blamed “criminal gangs”, but witnesses report that violence has been overwhelmingly on one side, with police and paramilitary gangs using live ammunition against peaceful demonstrators. The victims include a 15-year-old boy and a journalist shot as he livestreamed protests.

Mr Ortega first came to power when the Sandinistas overthrew the dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979. Despite scepticism at the rebels’ promises of democratic transition, he stepped down at the electorate’s behest in 1990. Sixteen years later he won power again, having forged new relationships with the Catholic church – backing a total ban on abortion – and business leaders, to whom the former Marxist guerrilla offered tax exemptions. Until recently he enjoyed strong approval ratings, reflecting relatively low crime rates, strong economic growth and poverty reduction programmes in one of the region’s poorest countries.

But the collapse of the economy in Nicaragua’s key ally Venezuela helped to reveal the brittleness of Mr Ortega’s rule. Former comrades and sympathisers had already attacked growing corruption and authoritarianism. He had taken control of institutions and cast off term limits. Elections since 2008 have been rife with irregularities. The opposition has been hobbled and potential internal rivals seen off. His vice-president is his wife, Rosario Murillo. Protesters, remembering an earlier dynasty, chant that “Ortega and Somoza are the same thing”. Mr Ortega swiftly dropped the policy which first sparked unrest: social security changes requiring more payments and offering lower payouts. And he has, at least, allowed the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights in to monitor the situation. But few believe he will voluntarily step down – unless he hands over to his wife, whose abuse of protesters has ignited more anger. Fear of prosecution for protest deaths is likely to harden his position.

The business lobby Cosep has called for the presidential election to be brought forward from 2021, the church is being openly critical and the army has been careful to maintain its distance from this crisis. But the police appear firmly under Mr Ortega’s control. And while the heart of the regime – the revolutionary couple, and what is left of the older structures of Sandinista power – remains a black box, there is no sign of a potential internal challenger.

Although Ms Murillo has called for dialogue, it is hard to see her husband making fundamental concessions and hard for others to have faith in promises that he does make. Senior members of the Nicaraguan church called off a previous attempt at dialogue after the “inhuman violence” on Mother’s Day. Even if agreement for an early election could be reached, rigorous monitoring by international observers would be required to ensure it was fair – and the opposition is in disarray. But the alternatives are much worse. Some fear chaos could be stirred up to deter people from protesting, or to justify a wider crackdown – which could eradicate opposition, or push it towards violent insurgency. The EU and the Organization of American States have already called for dialogue. Every diplomatic effort must be made to that end and to uphold any promises extracted.