College Football Playoff scenarios for the remaining contenders

Daniel Uthman | USA TODAY Sports

Could the College Football Playoff selection committee actually be free of controversy for the remainder of the season?

If the favorites in the ACC and SEC win their conference championships on Dec. 5, this season's four-team Playoff field would be fairly cut and dry: The top three teams in the current rankings — Clemson, Alabama and Big 12 champion Oklahoma — plus the winner of the Big Ten championship game between Iowa and Michigan State.

But what if North Carolina were to upset Clemson or Florida were to upset Alabama? Then as many as eight teams have a chance of making it.

Examining the Playoff outlook for the most realistic contenders in the committee's most recent rankings:

No. 1 Clemson (12-0)

Path to the Playoff: Beat No. 14 North Carolina in the ACC championship to close out the regular season. Do that, and Clemson should be no worse than the No. 2 seed in the Playoff.

No. 2 Alabama (11-1)

Path to the Playoff: Beat No. 12 Florida in the SEC championship. Though a number of Alabama's opponents — Wisconsin, Mississippi, Texas A&M and LSU to name four — seemed to fade after facing the Tide, all but one of their 10 wins vs. FBS opponents are what the committee considers a quality win.

That strength of schedule has impressed the committee and seemingly locks the Tide into one of the four seeds if they win out. But a loss to Florida, coupled with its home loss to Ole Miss, could knock out Alabama altogether.

No. 3 Oklahoma (11-1)

Path to the Playoff: It is inconceivable, based on their Big 12 championship and current selection committee ranking, that the Sooners have not already locked up one of the four Playoff seeds. Selection committee chair would not commit to that on Tuesday night, but he's pretty much not allowed.

No. 4 Iowa (12-0)

Path to the Playoff: Win the Big Ten championship. This finish would seem to guarantee Iowa a spot in the Playoff, not only because it would provide the Hawkeyes with a conference title, but also because Iowa would add a victory against another highly ranked Playoff top 25 team to wins against Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Northwestern.

No. 5 Michigan State (11-1)

Path to the Playoff: Beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Thanks to résumé builders in the form of wins vs. Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State, Michigan State has an extremely strong case if it can add the conference title.

No. 6 Ohio State (11-1)

Path to the Playoff: With Stanford knocking out Notre Dame, the Buckeyes stay in the outer fringes of the Playoff conversation as a second potential Big Ten entrant. Even then, they would need Stanford and either Clemson or Alabama to lose their conference championship games. Stanford has one more loss than the Buckeyes, but it beats the Buckeyes in terms of quality wins.

No. 7 Stanford (10-2)

Path to the Playoff: Win the Pac-12 championship by beating USC on Dec. 5 and have Alabama lose to Florida.

Stanford's victory against Notre Dame on Nov. 28 eliminated one team ahead of it in the committee ranking. It would be interesting to see whether Stanford's credentials — two losses but eight quality wins, including one vs. Notre Dame and two vs. USC plus a Pac-12 title — might be enough to supplant the Big 12 champ or at least edge Ohio State.

No. 10 North Carolina (11-1)

Path to the Playoff: Beat Clemson in the ACC championship, have Alabama lose the SEC championship and Stanford lose the Pac-12 championship. Even then, the committee might take Ohio State as a second Big Ten team rather than the Tar Heels. Chairman Jeff Longi intimated as much Tuesday night when he said the Buckeyes' strength of schedule is clearly superior to North Carolina's.

Two of North Carolina's wins came against FCS opponents, and the Tar Heels also have a loss against a team that fell to The Citadel, South Carolina. Those are not the credentials of a Playoff team.

All that said, taking the Buckeyes over an ACC champion Tar Heels could set a precedent against conference championships that the committee might not want to make.