On Wednesday seismic monitoring stations across the globe registered an earthquake near the North Korean nuclear test site, in the vicinity of the Chinese-Korean border.

Within a few hours, a North Korean TV presenter gave a typically high-pitched statement, notifying viewers that the DPRK’s military had successfully tested a thermonuclear device.

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There is nothing surprising in this. This is the fourth such test since 2006, and the North Korean government has repeated what it has been saying for the past decade: there will be no compromise on the nuclear issue.



To quote Lee Chun-hee, the veteran North Korean news announcer who announced the news: “We will not surrender our nuclear arms, even if the sky is falling.”

This is rather colourful language but it’s an honest reflection of what the North Korean elite thinks. They have seen what happened in Iraq and Libya, and they are determined to prevent any potential foreign incursion. Like it or not, their logic is quite sound.

Do not count on the North Korean government changing its line on the nuclear issue, no matter what assorted western diplomats say about their governments’ resolve not to recognise North Korea’s nuclear status. Recognition or not, North Korea is a nuclear state.

The major international players are afraid to admit this, since by recognising the North as a nuclear state they will create a dangerous precedent.

They might be correct in this fear: North Korea is the only country to have first signed the non-proliferation treaty, thus gaining access to civil nuclear technologies, before withdrawing to go on and develop – and test – nuclear weapons.

Sanctions will merely deprive the leadership of Hennessey cognac and Godiva chocolate

So, where do things go from here? Unfortunately, we have little reason to be optimistic. The North Korean government has no desire to surrender its nuclear weapons, since this is tantamount to collective suicide in their eyes. The world will not accept the North Korean nuclear weapons program, because such actions will result in numerous complications beyond the Korean peninsula.

The only hope might be some kind of negotiations, which are ostensibly aimed at resulting in the eventual denuclearisation of North Korea, but in actuality, limited to negotiating a freeze of the North Korean nuclear program.

The North Koreans have already indicated repeatedly that they are willing to talk about such a nuclear freeze, but any compromise on such issues still remains unacceptable for the US.

No doubt this compromise, even if dishonestly described as “the first step towards North Korea’s denuclearisation” is indeed rather unsavoury, since North Koreans expect to be generously compensated in exchange for them halting (not dismantling) their nuclear program. For the Americans, this appears suspiciously like rewarding a blackmailer, and is therefore unlikely to see the light of day any time soon.

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On repeat

More likely, in the next few weeks we will see a repeat of the same cycle we have seen so many times over the past 10 years.

The UN security council will have an urgent meeting that will introduce sanctions targeting North Korea. Such sanctions will allow politicians to explain to their voters that they are punishing a rogue regime in all ways imaginable – for instance, depriving the leadership of Hennessey cognac and Godiva chocolate. Credulous voters will agree and feel placated, but in actuality, such measures will make little if any difference.

Even if sanctions were to inflict damage on the North Korean economy – which has exceptionally low dependence on foreign trade – the only victims will be common North Koreans, who will just suffer more.

Of course, the top leadership might lose access to champagne, but in their eyes, this is a small price to pay for escaping the fates of Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.

We seem to be caught in a cul-de-sac – sanctions and resolutions will not stop North Korean engineers from working hard to build bigger and better weapons, but seemingly there’s nothing else that can be done.