After Brexit and Donald Trump’s shock victory, international attention is focused on the advance of comparable populist, nativist and nationalist forces across Europe in the run-up to this month’s pivotal election in the Netherlands and upcoming polls in France and Germany.

But another, less dramatic side of the story has received less scrutiny: the failure of political establishments of the centre-left and centre-right to produce credible, trustworthy successors to match the dominant political figures who bestrode the European stage in recent decades.

The Dutch political system, never straightforward, is fragmented as rarely before. Twenty-eight parties are contesting the 15 March election. Large numbers of voters are undecided and may stay home. No leader stands out above the rest. If there is any excitement, it has been generated by Geert Wilders, whose xenophobic, anti-Islam, anti-EU Freedom party is projected to do well. Yet Wilders’ prominence is partly a negative reflection on Mark Rutte, the uninspiring centre-right prime minister.

What are the issues in the Dutch election? The fundamentals of the economy are recovering well from the global financial crisis, with unemployment at a five-year low and economic growth at 2.3%. Healthcare and pensions are significant topics of debate, but in the absence of major economic concerns the biggest issue is immigration and integration. The agenda has been driven by the anti-Islam and anti-EU populist rhetoric of Geert Wilders, as well as the wider political climate across Europe. Dominant themes of discussion have included multiculturalism, globalisation, sovereignty, Dutch values, and how far the EU works – or doesn’t work – for the Netherlands. Read our comprehensive preview

Objectionable though his views are to many voters, Wilders has star quality that is lacking among more conventional politicians. He is better understood as an anti-politician, not dissimilar to Trump and Britain’s Nigel Farage. Mainstream Dutch politics has not always suffered a charisma deficit. Previous prime ministers Ruud Lubbers and Wim Kok were formidable figures. They ensured the Netherlands mostly punched above its weight, whereas Wilders promises only marginalisation.



The difficulties encountered by the French centre-right in advancing a solid candidate with national appeal also illustrate the wider European problem. With François Hollande and the Socialists discredited, the spring presidential election was there for the taking. Instead, François Fillon, the centre-right standard bearer, is struggling to salvage his reputation as a trustworthy and competent leader. Fillon’s possible last-minute replacement, Alain Juppé, also has a trust issue.

If voters do not want the far-right Front National’s Marine Le Pen, that could leave Emmanuel Macron – an investment banker with an elite background masquerading as an insurgent. Untried and inexperienced, Macron has enthused some younger voters, and a fresh face is never entirely a bad thing. But that was also said of Nicolas Sarkozy, another self-styled mould-breaker, and look what happened. Macron’s election would be a remarkable gamble at a time of acute economic and security crises.

The contrast with the more predictable, less turbulent eras of François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac is striking. The bigger European picture is not reassuring. Strong, steady leadership has been notably absent in Spain, where Mariano Rajoy fronts a minority government beset by powerful grassroots activism and corruption scandals.

Greece’s fragmented, headless politics continue to mirror its financial woes. Italy seemed to have found a credible national leader in Matteo Renzi, then mislaid him in December. The centre-left is now in the process of splintering further ahead of yet another election cycle that presages more instability.

Germany continues to be the exception to the European rule, with the politically adroit Angela Merkel seeking a fourth consecutive term in September. Martin Schulz, the Social Democrats’ newly anointed challenger, is being talked up as a new broom who could end the Merkel ascendancy. But Schulz, a thwarted footballer, small-town mayor and a former president of the European parliament, is no political heavyweight. He has a limited track record in domestic politics.

His main strength is he is not Sigmar Gabriel, his lugubrious predecessor. But nor is he Helmut Schmidt or Gerhard Schröder. Polls suggest the most likely outcome is another grand coalition with Merkel’s Christian Democrats, with Schulz as her vice-chancellor. This result is unlikely to satisfy anybody. It will not defuse the challenge posed by the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland.

The main thrust of the populist upsurge across Europe is that centrist, establishment political figures, however eminent, have failed to serve ordinary people’s interests. In Britain this is the charge levelled at Tony Blair, Labour’s most successful election winner, by his latest successor, the hard-left Jeremy Corbyn.

But the problem is not the monopolisation or abuse of power by strong leaders. It is a general lack of strong, credible, inclusive leadership of any kind.

