The headline from Montana’s House special election doesn’t look good for Democrats: Republican Greg Gianforte beat Democrat Rob Quist by 6 percentage points, even after Gianforte was accused of body slamming a reporter on the eve of the election. But in the latest episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates whether the result in Montana actually bodes poorly for Democrats and what a big special election win would mean for the party.

The team also plays another round of “smoke vs. fire” with the controversy over potential collusion between President Trump’s campaign and Russia, sifting through what’s most consequential among many recent revelations. Then, FiveThirtyEight’s Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the podcast to discuss the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of the House health care bill and the challenges the bill is facing in the Senate.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.