We Americans tend to have short memories when it comes to economic problems (among other things), so it's probably worth taking an occasional look backwards to illuminate the present.

On Nov. 1 last year, a group called Securing America's Future Energy ran a game-playing

exercise with nine mucky-mucks like former Treasury Secretary Robert E.Rubin, prize-winning author and consultant Daniel Yergin, former deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage and Gen. (Ret.) John P. Abizaid. The goal: to dramatize the risks of a price shock if some unexpected event threatened world oil supplies. The scenario: unrest rocks Azerbaijan and an explosion cuts off a million-barrel-a-day pipeline. The scenario was called "Shockwave" and

it envisioned an urgent meeting of the National Security Council to deal with the "crisis."

And what was the price of oil during this hypothetical crisis? $115 a barrel - slightly less than the current price.

That brings to mind one lesson and one question.

