As Garrison Keillor wraps up his farewell tour over the next 12 weeks, the public radio world is anxiously preparing for “A Prairie Home Companion” without him, a future as tricky to forecast as spring weather in Lake Wobegon.

In a survey of more than a dozen radio executives across the country, some questioned the survival of an old-fashioned variety show without its longtime star. Others were enthusiastic about the prospect of attracting a new generation of listeners with incoming host Chris Thile, who at 35 is less than half Keillor’s age.

It’s a high-stakes moment for Minnesota Public Radio and its parent company, American Public Media (APM), which grew out of “Prairie” to become the nation’s second largest producer of public radio programming. While St. Paul-based APM sees an opportunity to refresh a fading franchise, it’s also risking a cornerstone of its business.

“I like to come with a clear-eyed view of what a program is all about, and that’s very hard to do without Garrison involved in some shape or form,” said Maine Public Broadcasting CEO Mark Vogelzang, one of hundreds of program directors who must decide this month whether to renew the show.

The 2016-17 season, scheduled to open Oct. 15 at St. Paul’s Fitzgerald Theatre, will include only 13 live shows — a substantial drop from the 37 offered this season — packaged with “classic” reruns featuring Thile and some of Keillor’s greatest hits.

In essence, APM is trying to absorb the shock by easing Thile into the Old Scout’s red stockings while cutting the fee it charges stations for the show.

Garrison Keillor visited the renovated Janet Wallace Fine Arts Center in 2014, where the show gots its start in 1974.

Thile is a versatile musician who has been on stage since his teens but has limited experience interviewing celebrities and cracking jokes. The strategy gives him time to fine-tune his hosting skills while allowing fans to cling to Keillor after his official finale July 1 at the Hollywood Bowl.

“It’s not a good idea to yank out of the schedule a ‘brand’ like Garrison Keillor,” said Christina Kuzmych, general manager for Wyoming Public Media. “It must be done graciously, with regard to the audience.”

Another general manager said he doesn’t plan to pick up the show and faulted its bosses for failing to develop “a successor with significant audience attraction.”

“The program’s heritage may give Thile a grace period, but a startup needs more time to develop — and the program will be much like a startup without Garrison,” said Randy Eccles of WUIS in Springfield, Ill.

Former Wisconsin Public Radio director Jack Mitchell was even more blunt.

“The show is basically dead without [Keillor],” he said. “I can’t imagine anybody replacing him. It may continue, but stations won’t be willing to pay as much, income will go down, the show’s budget will not be what it was.”

APM cuts fees by 10 percent

“Prairie Home” is among a handful of public-radio shows that cover their expenses. Sponsorships and ticket sales are important, but the show’s most reliable source of revenue comes from the fees that stations pay to carry it — currently $5,500 to $61,000 a season, depending on the size of their market. That’s on top of affiliation charges that go to APM.

The “carriage fees” recently set for 2016-17 reflect a 10 percent drop in rates. Several affiliates say they plan to negotiate for even more savings.

“It’s more expensive than what we pay for a lot of newer shows,” said Mike Arnold, director of content for Wisconsin Public Radio. “When it’s pure ‘Prairie Home Companion,’ it’s worth it. The big question is, how’s the show going to be in this new form?”

Although “Prairie” remains among public radio’s top-five favorites, with more than 4 million listeners a week, ratings have flatlined in recent years.

Kansas Public Radio program director Darrell Brogdon said that in his state, the show has lost 20 percent to 25 percent of its fan base over the past 15 years.

APM, a nonprofit that earned $134 million in support and earned revenue last year, also distributes such popular programs as “Marketplace” and “The Splendid Table.” It will take over financial responsibility for producing the show from Prairie Home Productions, a private company Keillor established in 2002. His company will continue to profit from PHC-related merchandise, themed cruises and Keillor’s personal appearances.

APM chief executive Jon McTaggart said the organization has spent years preparing for this transition, and notes that Keillor is leveraging his star power to pave the way for his successor.

“He’s not just handing over the keys and saying good luck,” McTaggart said. “He’s doing everything he can — artistically, creatively, energetically, being an encouragement, having people that have worked with him for decades to help get this [revamped] show off the ground.”

Keillor confirmed that he’ll be on board as an executive producer, but that he won’t be writing or appear as a guest any time soon. His main role: cheerleader for Thile.

“He won’t be trying to do what I did,” Keillor said. “He’ll create his own kind of excitement.”

Thile is expected to reveal details about his on-air lineup and approach later this month.

McTaggart said he and Keillor made a deliberate decision to keep the “Prairie Home Companion” name alive while trying to create something new. “This is a next chapter, not a starting over,” he said, pointing to the way Jimmy Fallon has put his own spin on “The Tonight Show.”

That example, however, also invites comparisons to the hiccup “Tonight” experienced during Conan O’Brien’s brief eight-month reign as host. Noah Adams didn’t last much longer than that when he took over the “Prairie Home” slot in 1987 after Keillor’s first “retirement,” a chapter that radio veterans haven’t forgotten.

“Naturally I’m concerned that history will repeat itself,” said Kansas Public Radio’s Brogdon.

A very slow youth movement

“Prairie” may not be as hot as it was in the 1980s and ’90s — but neither is the rest of public radio’s weekend lineup. To cynics, it’s starting to resemble Old Timers Day at the ballpark, with infrequent attempts to recruit new talent.

“Wits,” APM’s stab at creating a next-generation variety show, was axed last summer after failing to make a profit during its three-year run. At the same time, many public radio stations continue to run “Car Talk” four years after it stopped making new episodes.

“We certainly wouldn’t want public radio stations to become all-nostalgia on the weekends,” said Wisconsin Public Radio’s Arnold. “That’s one of the nice things about Chris Thile. It’ll be a challenge, but we do need new talents.”

Stations will need new programming after the Wisconsin-produced quiz show “Whad’Ya Know?” ends its 31-year run in June. There’s also the very real possibility that 70-something Twin Cities food personality Lynne Rossetto Kasper soon will excuse herself from “The Splendid Table,” another APM-syndicated show.

“It’s important that we change to attract new listeners. Unfortunately in public radio we don’t have a very good track record,” said Jason Klein, director of radio at Mississippi Public Broadcasting. “We’re too afraid to lose listeners in order to gain others. That’s an unsustainable model.”

Thile’s reputation as a musician’s musician may attract big talent — Paul Simon and Ben Folds popped by when he subbed for Keillor earlier this season — but an eclectic set list may not be a significant selling point in an age when Gen-Xers and millennials are more likely to get their groove on through Spotify or Tidal.

“Live Wire!” a Portland-based radio variety show that recently enlisted Twin Cities band the Jayhawks for a taping at the Fitzgerald, originally aspired to provide a soundtrack for younger listeners, but executive producer Robyn Tenenbaum learned that people in their 40s and older make a more reliable audience.

“We may have wanted to push the line, but now we’re happy staying in the lines,” she said. “I’ve been going to conferences for 15 years where they always say they want a younger audience, and then they hold up Garrison as a model. It’s a mixed message.”

While some argue that “Prairie Home” has always been a music show, Louisiana Public Radio president David Gordon disagrees. “People tune in for Keillor and everything else is secondary.”

Gordon said he’ll wait to see APM’s price tag before deciding whether or not to renew. Most of his peers seem committed to giving the show a trial run, if only to fill the need for weekend programming.

“We’re predisposed to give it a try,” said Betsy Gardella, president of New Hampshire Public Radio.