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It already seems prudent to start disregarding the polls as France heads towards a presidential election in April

Socialist President Francois Hollande’s bumbling performance has dented the chances of any other candidate from his party, be it leftist zealot Arnaud Montebourg or pro-business Emmanuel Macron, who is running as an independent. If Hollande runs himself, that may be the worst outcome for the Socialists.

This means that, unless the Socialists can pull a rabbit out of a hat, France will get a Putin-friendly president next year.

Among the center-right candidates, Juppe was the most anti-Russian. He has condemned the Crimea annexation and the Russian bombings of Aleppo, accusing Russia of “war crimes” in Syria. “At a certain moment, we shouldn’t hesitate to tell Putin ‘stop,'” he has said. If he ended up running against Le Pen, Putin would have a thing or two to worry about; he might even need to find a way to provide more funding for the National Front leader. With Fillon as the center-right candidate, he can relax.

Sarkozy’s one-time prime minister cannot be accused of being a “Manchurian candidate” or of being on Putin’s payroll. The pro-business French right has plenty of money of its own. Fillon has consistently backed Russia in Syria since 2012, saying Moscow could be instrumental in resolving the conflict and refraining from calling for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s removal until the Islamic State is defeated. In 2013, Fillon was a guest of the Valdai forum, which Putin and his foreign policy elite use to communicate Russia’s policy views to Western experts; apart from calling for cooperation in Syria, he expressed hope that Europe would soon abolish short-term visas for Russia — something that’s not even on the agenda today.