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Opinion in Wales is shifting significantly against leaving the European Union, a new opinion poll shows.

If there was a new referendum on EU membership in Wales today, the poll commissioned from Beaufort Research by WalesOnline, suggests that Remain would have a 10 percentage point lead over leave.

The poll of 1,000 people done in the first three weeks of June shows that when “don’t knows” and “won’t votes” are excluded, Remain would lead Leave by 55% to 45%. In the 2016 referendum, Leave led Remain by 52.53% to 47.47% in Wales.

The figures reflect what polls have been showing consistently since the start of 2019, that Remain has established a lead over Leave across the UK.

Across the UK on May 21, a Panelbase poll showed Remain on 52% and Leave on 45%; a week earlier a Kantar poll showed Remain on 42% and Leave on 33%; and a ComRes poll on April 16 showed 52% backing Remain and 38% supporting Leave.

Geraint Talfan Davies, who chairs the Wales for Europe group, said: “That is a solid foundation on which we can build a decisive majority for Remain in Wales in a new referendum. The younger generations are leading the way, along with the women of Wales.

“Whether it’s workers in automotive industries, the health service or farming, we see and hear more fear and nervousness about the consequences every day.”

Plaid Cymru’s Brexit spokesperson Delyth Jewell, a regional AM for South Wales East, said: “A Brexit of any kind, and particularly a no-deal Brexit, would be utterly disastrous for Wales.

“We have consistently said that the right and democratic thing to do is to put the question of Brexit back to the people in a final say referendum."

A spokesman for the Brexit Party in Wales, which is led by South Wales East AM Mark Reckless, said: “We had a referendum, and the people chose to leave. A second referendum would be politicians telling people they got it wrong so they must vote again."

Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives did not respond to our request for a comment.

(Image: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

What the poll showed

People were asked by Beaufort: “If a second referendum were held now on the UK’s membership of the European Union, would you vote to leave the EU, to remain in the EU, don’t know or don’t vote/wouldn’t vote?”

Arguably the most significant finding of the poll is the change of voting intention among voters in the south Wales Valleys, who in the referendum voted strongly for Leave.

Of those expressing a view, 58% of Valleys voters now said they would back Remain against 42% who said they would vote Leave.

Three of the other four Welsh regions would also now back Remain: North Wales by 59% to 41%; Cardiff and South East Wales by 57% to 43%; and West South Wales by 52% to 48%.

The only region backing Leave was Mid and West Wales, by 53% to 47%.

When don't knows are included, the poll shows: Beaufort Research

Both sexes gave majority support to Remain, but women did so in greater numbers. Women backed Remain by 57% to 43%, while men did so by 53% to 47%.

The only age group backing Leave was over-65s, who did so by 54% to 46%.

The youngest age group, covering people aged 18 to 24, had the strongest support for Remain, by 69% to 31%.

Other age groups also backed Remain.

Those aged between 25 and 34 did so by 57% to 43%; those aged 35 to 44 by 64% to 36%; those aged 45 to 54 by 53% to 47%; and those in the 55-to-64 age group also by 53% to 47%.

In terms of social class, there was a straightforward division, with those in the higher ABC1 bands backing Remain by 63% to 37% and those in the lower C2DE bands preferring Leave by 55% to 45%.

Fluent Welsh speakers were more likely to back Remain – by 68% to 32% – than those who can’t speak the language, who backed Remain by 53% to 47%.

Also, households with children backed Remain (58% to 42) by a higher margin than those without children (54% to 46%).

In a follow-up question, people who answered Leave to the first question were asked: “If the UK and the EU were unable to reach a withdrawal agreement (meaning the only option for leaving would be a no-deal Brexit), would this change your view on how you would vote? On this basis, would you vote to leave the EU or to remain in the EU?”

While 91% of respondents would still vote Leave, a further 5% would vote Remain and 4% didn’t know or wouldn’t vote.

* Fieldwork for Beaufort Research’s Omnibus survey took place between June 3 and June 21. A total of 1,000 people aged over 18 and living in Wales were interviewed and the results represent the views of a representative cross-section of the population.