Katrease Stafford

Detroit Free Press

As Tuesday's filing deadline approaches in Detroit's mayoral election, two outsized political names loom large — but it's anyone's guess whether more candidates will file at the last moment.

Barring any last-minute big names, many analysts agree the race could whittle down to incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan and challenger state Sen. Coleman Young II, son of the late legendary Mayor Coleman A. Young.

Analysts expect a competitive election that will focus on how to keep moving forward in the post-bankruptcy city that's seen a resurgence downtown but staggered success in its neighborhoods.

What about a last-minute surprise entry?

"I wouldn’t say I expect it, but this is Detroit and it always tends to be someone who comes out of the woodwork in the 11th hour," said Jamaine Dickens, DMC Strategies partner and a consultant who has worked with several Detroit politicians. "But I just don’t know if it's probable. It looks like a showdown between Duggan and Coleman Young II."

►Related: How best to measure Detroit success and Mayor Mike Duggan's?

►Related: Coleman Young II announces mayoral run: 'We need change'

Thirty-eight candidates have pulled petitions since late last year to run for mayor, according to data from the City Clerk's Office, but only Duggan and Young have turned in the minimum 500 valid signatures required from registered Detroit voters ahead of the deadline.

Yet City of Detroit Elections Director Daniel Baxter said the department often sees a surge of mayoral and City Council candidates turn in signatures at the last moment. Potential candidates have until 4 p.m. Tuesday to file, Baxter said.

"Particularly on the last day, we get a rush of individuals ... waiting to get their petitions in," Baxter said. "We’ve had as many as 75 people file on the last day and as few as 10 for a municipal election. This election, we anticipate we will have a hearty crowd of people to come in."

How the next mayor plans to advance recovery in the city's neighborhoods and generate jobs will be key for a successful campaign, many analysts agree.

"The big issue will be who will have the best plan to move the city forward," said Detroit 910 AM host and longtime political analyst Steve Hood. "That’s No. 1. Plan No. 2 will be who has the best plan to deal with the neighborhood divide issue and No. 3, who will have the best plan to deal with providing jobs and generating new jobs for the city? When I say the best plan, it has to be logical. It has to be able to be accomplished in whole or in part."

Duggan, who announced his plans for re-election Feb. 4, has recently acknowledged there's much more to be done in fixing the city and he's announced several plans aimed at investing in neighborhoods — such as a $11.7-million effort to renovate 40 neighborhood parks.

At his announcement for re-election, Duggan said Detroiters now have a growing pride in the city, but he admitted that basic city services — like trash pickup and working streetlights in neighborhoods, which have improved under his tenure — should be the norm.

“We have to thank somebody for the lights being on," Duggan said. "In other cities, that’s expected. We need to get to the point in Detroit where we expect those things.”

But a lack of significant change in some of the city's most impoverished neighborhoods is a frequent criticism of Duggan and other Detroit mayors.

"This changing environment and job training in the city of Detroit will continue to be a top issue," Dickens said. "You have a lot of investment happening in the city of Detroit for the first time and those who are waiting for opportunities are waiting to see how they fit into this new Detroit. I think that’s going to be a key issue to discuss. ... You have an incumbent with four years under his belt and subjected to the criticism of a challenger who said the incumbent hasn’t done enough for Detroiters who have chosen to stay or who have no choice but to stay."

Duggan's administration has also been criticized in its handling of the Detroit Land Bank Authority’s housing demolition program. Questions have been raised about awarding of “unit price” contracts to three companies that included pre-bid discussion of contract prices before the bids were opened to the public. A federal investigation is under way and Duggan has said his administration has pledged complete cooperation.

Young officially launched his run for Detroit mayor Feb. 24 with a large photo of his late father in the background. Young II says the city needs a leader who focuses on its neighborhoods and on helping residents who face hardships.

"We need change, and that is why I am running for mayor," Young, 34, said at the time recalling his father's focus on jobs when he was mayor in 1974-94. "I will do whatever it takes — blood, sweat, tears and toil — and I will fight to the very end to make sure that justice is done for the city of Detroit."

Dickens said he thinks Young's bid could resonate with certain Detroiters.

"He's the challenger that brings the recognition to his name," he said. "The question will be then how many of those residents who loved and respected and saw his dad as legendary, how much do they impact the elections today?"

But Duggan has won praise for his successes, which could give him a potential upper hand, some believe. Young's bid for mayor came three days after Duggan delivered a State of the City address that focused heavily on putting Detroiters to work and investing in neighborhoods.

That same week, Duggan announced a new program — Detroit at Work — that will train Detroit residents for available jobs. Since then, Duggan has made a steady stream of announcements, improving city services including the long beleaguered Detroit Department of Transportation, which has added several new service lines.

"Duggan has a lot of experience managing things and that is highly important," said Lyke Thompson, a Wayne State University political science professor who has taught a course on Detroit politics. "Coleman Young has increasing amounts of political experience from his service in the (Michigan) Legislature and that connection to Lansing is important. They each have distinct assets. The mayor, Duggan, has more experience and he also has a track record at City Hall and in other locations that will be Coleman Young's challenge to overcome."

Greg Bowens,who was press secretary for former Mayor Dennis Archer, said he thinks it will be important for both candidates to focus on Detroiters who might feel disenfranchised from the city's recent successes.

"Every mayoral election features neighborhoods versus downtown," Bowens said, but a question remains whether people of color will benefit from Detroit's resurgence. "Right now, we're in a situation where everyone is cheering the rebirth of the city because it carries the entire region but people have a sort of anxiety of where they fit in this puzzle. The candidate who speaks to that is the one who can address those very ideas and that can do a lot to open the doors of Detroit even wider."

According to Wayne County campaign finance reports, Duggan raised about $3 million to run for mayor in 2013. That didn't include millions raised by an independent super PAC that supported Duggan.

"From a political standpoint it's pretty clear that Duggan has the closest thing to a political machine among the two of them," Dickens said. "His strength will be fund-raising. ... But a weakness would be that the neighborhoods haven’t seen the same type of resurgence and that’s probably the strength of Coleman Young from a message standpoint."

Other races

Seventy-nine people have pulled petitions to run for all nine council seats, according to the clerk's office, and of that number, five have already withdrawn.

Incumbent Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones and Council member Janee Ayers have both submitted the required 500 signatures to run in the at-large race, according to the clerk. Council members Mary Sheffield and Raquel Castaneda-Lopez have also submitted their required 300 signatures to run in their respective districts, according to the clerk's office. Incumbents James Tate, George Cushingberry, Scott Benson, Andre Spivey and Gabe Leland have not submitted their signatures yet.

According to the clerk's office, 15 people pulled petitions to run for city clerk, including incumbent Janice Winfrey. Two potential candidates have already withdrawn.

Contact Katrease Stafford: kstafford@freepress.com or 313-223-4759. Staff writer Joe Guillen contributed to this report.