Amy McGrath (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Millions are pouring into the Kentucky Senate race as small donors throw cash at former Marine Amy McGrath in her probable challenge to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

McGrath outraised McConnell in the first quarter of this year, reporting she received $12.8 million while the Republican incumbent raised $7.8 million. She now edges out McConnell in total fundraising, bringing in nearly $30 million to his $25.6 million. The Senate majority leader is projected to win the seat but by a narrow margin, according to polling data analyzed by FiveThirtyEight.

McGrath is attracting small donors from both in and out of state, making up 63 percent of her fundraising total through the end of 2019. Small donors make up just 16 percent of McConnell’s funds, totaling nearly $2.8 million as he relies more on PACs and his colleagues’ campaign coffers.

Banking on Democrats’ dislike for McConnell, McGrath has also issued several Facebook ads targeting the incumbent senator’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak.

“It’s a high profile race, McConnell is the second most powerful Republican and Democrats intensely dislike him,” said Raymond La Raja, a political science professor at University of Massachusetts-Amherst. “It is a national race that attracts small donors.”

Both candidates’ campaigns are being funded by significant proportions of out of state donors. McConnell’s campaign got over 89 percent from donors outside of Kentucky, while McGrath’s received 96 percent through the end of 2019. Congressional candidates must file first-quarter reports on April 15 that will provide a complete picture of their 2020 fundraising so far.

Democrats are battling for several Senate seats held by Republicans, including Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. But Kentucky has entered the fray due to Democratic donors’ enthusiasm to unseat McConnell. Super PACs are also pouring money into the race.

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“If it was a choice of Democratic establishment, they would not be investing this much in the race,” La Raja said. “But this really is being funded through grassroots. I think they have concerns about not having money for other races which are winnable. But even though pundits say this race is not close and McConnell will win, people see this race as a tight one, which is why they’re giving money.”

The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has booked $67 million worth ad buys for six states this fall, including nearly $11 million in Kentucky, Politico reported. So far, outside groups have spent over $2.3 million against the majority leader and nearly $407,000 backing McGrath. Hybrid PAC Ditch Fund, one of the early anti-McConnell groups, drives the bulk of that spending.

“My guess is the Senate Leadership Fund will attack McGrath soon after primary to soften her numbers and spread the gap between her and McConnell early on as possible,” La Raja said. ”If the close poll numbers linger, that presages a Democratic surge that will surely scare other Republican incumbents.”

At a time when incumbent senators on both sides of the aisle are in vulnerable positions, the GOP leadership is looking into a seat that was considered safe. Democratic interest in the seat combined with McConnell faring poorly in favorability polls contributes to national Republican concern, experts say.

“Amy on paper is a big candidate, it’s a long shot but it is possible, ” La Raja said. “It would be a symbolic coup. McConnell holds the Republican Senate together, it would be like taking out a general.”

Before she challenges McConnell, McGrath must win a June 23 primary where she’s outraised the crowded field handily.





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