This is a big reason that the autopsy unveiled this week by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus called generically for comprehensive immigration reform. But the truth is that most Republicans elected after the spring of 2009 don’t give a hoot about RNC dictates. “What Rand Paul says matters more to me than what the [Republican National Committee] says,” Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), who chairs the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration, told POLITICO this week.

An influential conservative House member said the entire party leadership won’t win over a lot members like him — but will probably get enough to win passage of a bipartisan bill.

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reset Roundtable: Priebus' report card Marco Rubio praises Rand Paul on immigration

So immigration could get done, but it’s not nearly as certain as many think. The big reason: This post-2009 wing of the party is deeply divided.

The Heritage Foundation’s DeMint, who talks often with Rubio and Paul, hardly sounds like a believer in citizenship for people who broke the law. “The idea that we can pass an immigration bill that gives citizenship and somehow that’s going to win elections for Republicans, it ain’t going to happen,” DeMint told us. “If citizenship solved our problem, then maybe we need to sit down and discuss it. But we’ve been there and we’ve tried that. … It didn’t solve any problem.”

Just wait until conservative groups start running ads charging that Republicans are rewarding lawbreakers and willingly creating 10 million new Democratic voters by granting them amnesty. One Rubio confidant told us this pressure could ultimately persuade convince the Florida freshman to back off his support. Same goes for Paul, who danced around his specific position this week before finally saying he does support some form of earned citizenship.

Rubio said he knows it’s going to be a big job to explain his position. “We’re not done with that process,” he said. “My hope is that when we’re done informing people why we’re doing this and what it really is, we’ll have more support than opposition. I can’t guarantee it. But that’s my job.”

The fate of immigration won’t be a fight between Rubio, Paul and party leaders. It will be a fight between Rubio, Paul and members of the post-2009 generation who, like DeMint, are not buying into the life-or-death political warnings about earned citizenship. Keep a close eye on Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in particular. Cruz is no fan of the bipartisan deal being cooked up by Rubio and others and could easily lead a spirited charge against it that might resonate with the conservative voters who dominate the midterm elections.

Already, top Senate GOP leaders are looking to Rubio and Paul to help recruit Republicans who are both conservative and electable for races in 2014. Again, the simple blessing of Rubio and Paul can buy party leaders credibility with conservatives that establishment figures simply cannot supply.

That was on full display at the Conservative Political Action Conference, where Paul won the straw poll with 25 percent, 2 points ahead of Rubio.

From just outside the Beltway, the Rubio-Paul Party was reminding the establishment who’s boss.