Three Iowa counties: What to watch for in crucial Clinton, Johnson and Polk counties

Editor's note: This story was originally published on Jan. 26, 2020. After delays on caucus night, the Iowa Democratic Party says it plans to release partial caucus results at 4 p.m. CST Tuesday.

With so much happening on Caucus Day — there are more than 1,700 caucus precincts statewide, 28 national and international satellite locations and expected record-breaking turnout — keeping track of results in real time will be overwhelming.

Here's a way to focus in on Feb. 3: Watch what's unfolding in three counties where voting patterns could signal trends across Iowa and the nation — trends that could prove critical to the outcome of the presidential race.

The three key counties, which the Des Moines Register has profiled over the course of the 2020 caucus cycle, are:

Clinton County, in eastern Iowa, which could be a bellwether for more rural and micropolitan parts of the states with strong union ties and blue-collar roots.

The uber-progressive Johnson County, which will give insight into the progressive battle between U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as youth turnout.

Polk County, where returns will spotlight the state’s largest Democratic base as well as suburban precincts surrounding Des Moines that were critical to the 2018 Democratic surge.

Clinton County

When Republican President Donald Trump was elected, the spotlight turned to places like Clinton County, with a mostly white and aging population. The county, which borders the Mississippi River, supported Trump in 2016. Voters there had not chosen a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan sought reelection in 1984.

Clinton County was among 31 Iowa counties that flipped from Obama to Trump, with many of them clustered in eastern Iowa and along the Mississippi River. Their communities were built on manufacturing and have been hit hard by declines in population and the economy.

Clinton's caucus night winner may resonate in similar counties across the country. That could be a critical point for candidates who want to argue they're best positioned to win back blue-to-red swing states in the industrial Midwest like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Precincts to watch

Clinton County's largest turnout has typically been in the city of Clinton's 22nd precinct, said county party chairman Bill Jacobs.

"That's kind of the heart of the town, really," he said.

But look to Dewitt's 2nd precinct as a place where the results will be more reflective of the county's preferences overall, he said. DeWitt has about 5,300 people and sits 20 miles west of Clinton.

"We have a large number of activists in that precinct, and it’ll be really well run," Jacobs said. "It’s our largest (precinct), in terms of the number of people who show up outside of the city proper."

Two precincts in even less populous parts of the county could show how Iowa's rural voters are leaning on caucus night: The Elk River-Hampshire-Andover and Spring Rock-Wheatland precincts are ones to watch, Jacobs said.

Candidates to watch

Former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Warren are the only campaigns to open field offices in the area, Jacobs said, though Sanders has staffers there.

Sanders, running on a populist agenda with an outsider's mentality, earned half of Clinton County's caucus night support in 2016.

Jean Pardee, a longtime county party leader and Clinton resident, said she's interested to see whether Sanders' support holds or tapers off, or if his supporters "feel they got so burnt last time" they stay home entirely.

"Earlier, I thought Bernie was doing well, had a solid base. But I'm not sure that’s being totally maintained," she said. "Apparently, at least some of it is going to Warren."

Biden, who has ties to the area's union and blue-collar roots, also entered the race as a known commodity after his previous presidential runs in 1988 and 2008. Clinton County is among the places his campaign officials have said they expect to do well.

"The other (way to win) is who beats the expectations, which is probably (U.S. Sen. Amy) Klobuchar or Warren," Jacobs said. "I think the expectations of Warren are definitely lower than they were a few months ago."

Pardee and former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge both said they also will be watching to see if Klobuchar beats expectations, particularly among the county's more rural voters.

"She's our girl next door," Judge said. "She's worked hard here."

Watch for rural voter participation

Local party leaders say they expect rural caucus participation to skyrocket as part of increased participation statewide. Jacobs said Clinton County party officials are preparing for turnout to surge by a minimum of 25% at local precincts.

He said 66 people caucused at the rural Elk River-Hampshire-Andover precinct in 2016, and he is watching to see whether attendance hits 100 people this year. At the even smaller Spring Rock-Wheatland precinct, 30 people caucused in 2016. Jacobs said he's hoping to see 50 people turn out there this year.

Jacobs said he is reluctant to speculate which candidate will emerge from rural precincts like those. But if turnout grows substantially over 2016, he said it will show there is "a dissatisfaction with the Republican Party and with Donald Trump, in particular," that could benefit Democrats overall.

That could be key to Iowa Democrats' chances of flipping the state from red to blue in the 2020 general election.

Past coverage:

Democrats' hopes for White House success run through this Iowa county

Lingering tension from a 1979 corn processing strike confronts Democrats in crucial Clinton County, Iowa

Photos: Bernie Sanders campaigns in Clinton

Photos: Pete Buttigieg campaigns in Clinton

Photos: Joe Biden campaigns in Clinton

Johnson County

As Democratic presidential candidates vie for Iowa’s progressive vote, they're battling to lock down supporters in what's known colloquially as the “People’s Republic” of Johnson County.

Johnson County has a higher percentage of active registered Democrats — 46.7% — than any other county in Iowa. It also boasts a far younger population in large part because of the University of Iowa in Iowa City. With a median age of 29.9 years, Johnson is the second-youngest county in a state known for its aging population (edged only by Story County, home to Iowa State University).

Both demographics helped boost Sanders' overall support on caucus night in 2016.

Though he won about half of the vote statewide, Sanders finished at nearly 60% in Johnson County to Hillary Clinton's 40%, one of his best showings in the state.

Precincts to watch

Young voters broke hard for Sanders in 2016, according to exit polling. And he continues to lead among young likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa this year, according to recent Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Polls.

Pay attention to Iowa City's 5th precinct, where many University of Iowa students will caucus. Organizers have paid to rent the Englert Civic Theatre, a large venue, to accommodate an expected surge in turnout.

The results in this precinct will signal whether Sanders has maintained his 2016 student support or whether others have wrested it from him.

Iowa City's 23rd precinct is also key, according to local organizers. It is on Iowa City's east side, where many of the city's full-time residents live.

Though still ardently liberal, these caucusgoers are more likely to be university faculty and staff rather than students. A precinct like the 23rd will have a high turnout of older caucusgoers and people finished with their post-secondary education.

"What really makes us the most liberal county in the state is the faculty and staff," said John Deeth, a member of the Johnson County Democrats' executive committee.

But Johnson County is more than just Iowa City. Penn-East Lucas N, for example, is a precinct southeast of North Liberty, a suburban area. Results may look different there than in city precincts. Results in the suburbs surrounding Iowa City may show how moderate Democrats in a very liberal area are feeling, come caucus night.

Candidates to watch

Organizers predict Sanders and Warren, two of the most progressive candidates in the 2020 Democratic primary field, will win big in Johnson County.

"We're not expecting any surprises: Warren and Sanders are going to do well with young voters," said Nick Pryor, president of the University of Iowa College Democrats. "But how it breaks down, that's what I'm really interested to see."

Sanders and Warren led the latest Iowa Poll at 20% and 17%, respectively. Among those younger than 35, Sanders led Warren 36% to 20%.

If the polling remains that close on caucus night, Johnson County could be the place where one of them gains an edge over the other.

Watch the popular vote

Since the Iowa Democratic Party will release the raw vote totals in addition to the traditional state delegate equivalents, candidates can compete to win the "popular" vote as well as the delegate count.

Previously, Iowa's caucus rules dissuaded candidates from concentrating too heavily in one area because the available number of delegates they could win was capped. Now that candidates get credit for every person who shows up to caucus for them, their campaigns could choose to run up the score in places where they know they're likely to do well to help cushion losses in other parts of the state.

► More: Could multiple candidates 'win' the Democratic caucuses? New rules make it possible.

If there's any county where it makes sense to do that, it's Johnson, where local party leaders have argued for years that they're apportioned fewer delegates than their population and turnout deserve.

Watch to see whether Warren or Sanders wins the popular vote here — if they drive up the score enough, it could ultimately help them swing the final statewide popular vote tally in their favor.

Past coverage:

2020 campaigns eye Johnson County — hotbed of Democratic activism — as they court progressives who backed Sanders in 2016

Young Iowa Democrats, coming of age in the Trump era, approach 2020 caucuses with new urgency

Photos: U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren speaks at the U of I campus

Photos: Bernie Sanders rallies supporters on University of Iowa campus

In liberal Johnson County, these are the issues students care about

Polk County

White, educated, suburban women drove election turnout in 2018, helping to flip seats from Republican to Democrat in both the Iowa House and the U.S. House. They're also a key constituency for Democratic presidential candidates seeking to win caucus support and boost turnout in the 2020 general election.

The debate over health care has been especially pertinent in these suburban neighborhoods outside of Des Moines. In 2018, candidates won in part by running hyper-disciplined campaigns focused on protecting 2010's Affordable Care Act and its insurance coverage for people with preexisting conditions. But Democratic presidential candidates like Sanders and Warren are pushing the party further to the left in the debate over "Medicare for All."

The candidate who can energize suburban voters in the caucuses could make the case they're best positioned to continue the momentum of 2018 into 2020.

Precincts to watch

Polk County, which includes Iowa's capital city of Des Moines, is the state's most populous — a fact that makes it worth watching on its own. About 12% of the state's precincts are in Polk County.

But a little less than half of Polk County residents live in Des Moines. The rest of its nearly 500,000 people reside in suburban and exurban areas.

To capture the sentiment among suburban voters, watch Ankeny's 12th precinct, said Ankeny Area Democrats chair Mary McAdams, who recently endorsed Warren. The northern Des Moines suburb has grown by more than 42% since the 2010 census, when precinct lines were last determined, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. There are now 1,300 registered Democrats in Ankeny's 12th.

In addition to its size, the precinct will likely be "representative of what's happening in the suburbs at large," said Polk County Democrats executive director Judy Downs.

Another precinct to watch is Des Moines' 62nd, a large area that includes parts of the Waterbury, Ingersoll Park, Westwood and Linden Heights neighborhoods, where local party leaders, activists and donors are concentrated. That makes it a bellwether for candidates' support among some of Iowa's most engaged Democrats, Downs said.

Polk County Democrats chair Sean Bagniewski said he expects Polk County's results to be available relatively early in the night, close to 8 p.m.

Candidates to watch

Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren each have clear paths to victory in Polk County, Bagnewski said. He and Downs expect Biden to fare better in rural counties than in Polk County as a result of his organizing and messaging.

Johnston Area Democrats chair Dave Vawter, who is a precinct captain for billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, said he anticipates some lower-polling candidates to “come out with support that the national media has not ... anticipated.”

He pegged Klobuchar as someone to watch.

“I still think Klobuchar could actually do pretty well,” he said. “She's a Midwesterner and she's more than qualified for the position.”

“It would surprise me if the front-runners who were leading ... six months ago win the caucus,” Downs said. “It's going to surprise me if there isn't some story or some surprising win.”

Watch for busy caucus sites

In addition to the recent population increase in Ankeny, Democratic turnout in recent local elections has also been up. As a result of both, Bagniewski expects two Ankeny precincts to have three times as many caucusgoers as they did in 2016.

He said a recent spate of Democratic victories in local suburban elections is evidence of an engaged voter base. Meanwhile, the Iowa suburbs have seen record growth in the last decade.

McAdams said it's been difficult to find caucus sites big enough to accommodate anticipated crowds, but that people shouldn’t complain.

“It is what it is. We redistrict every 10 years and there's growth,” she said. “There's nothing you can do except turn out for the future so that you get more delegates for the future — it's based on past turnout, so you can kind of say, ‘Hey, where was everybody in 2016?’ We're paying for that now.”

She said her team has worked 'round the clock to ensure this year’s caucuses run smoother than in 2016. They've recruited and trained more people and invested in larger spaces — even if that means that 60 percent of Ankeny voters will have to travel slightly outside their own precincts to caucus.

“They’re not going to be crowded this time,” she said. “We have worked our butts off to make that not happen.”

Past coverage:

Iowa suburbs take center stage: 'This is going to be a big battleground in the presidential election'

Democrats won Iowa suburbs in 2018 by making health care a signature issue. The message is more complicated for 2020 caucus candidates.

About this project

In the six months leading up to Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses, the Des Moines Register’s chief political reporter, Brianne Pfannenstiel, and other Register journalists have told the stories of Clinton, Johnson and Polk counties and their residents as they sort through messages and messengers.

This unique journey through history, economies and culture has brought Register subscribers to a county that flipped from supporting President Barack Obama to candidate Donald Trump, one that embraces deep liberal politics and a third that has growing suburbs. The decisions made by voters in these three Iowa counties in 2020 could signal decisions that will be made in similar places across Iowa and the nation and prove key to the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

The series features deep research and rich storytelling from Pfannenstiel and reporters Kim Norvell, Shelby Fleig and Robin Opsahl, combined with compelling imagery from political team photographer Kelsey Kremer and data journalism from Tim Webber.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR. Kim Norvell covers Elizabeth Warren and growth and development for the Register. Reach her at knorvell@dmreg.com or 515-284-8259. Shelby Fleig covers Amy Klobuchar, news and features for the Register. Reach her at shelbyfleig@dmreg.com or 515-214-8933. Robin Opsahl covers political trends for the Register. Reach them at ropsahl@registermedia.com or 515-284-8051.

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