“Will there be a fourth step? I can't rule that out,’’ Mr Andrews said. “So long as we see people doing the wrong thing for so long as we see additional cases, each day then we're going to have to consider taking next steps." The subtle change in message, along with renewed expressions of optimism from Commonwealth and state public health experts advising the national cabinet, signals a steep change in the pandemic policy response. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said the measures now in place, if adhered to by the public, could “completely flatten the curve”, the predicted course of the epidemic. He said the total number of infections in Australia might be limited to 15,000 - a fraction of last year’s 217,000 recorded cases of influenza. Mr Andrews said that at present, there was no need to declare a state of disaster and enact further emergency powers.

“If everyone follows these rules and they are as simple as they can be, then we will slow the speed of this virus. We will save lives we will protect our health system we will get through this together and we will get to the other side of it quicker,’’ he said. Professor Sarah Wilson, the head of the Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, told The Age the shift in public message, combined with Victoria’s incremental cessation of social and economic activity, would help people adjust to the restrictions now in place. “In order to help people maintain what is a fairly strict or draconian set of changes, that message that what we are all doing is working needs to be very loud and strong,’’ Professor Wilson said. “That is what will help us maintain this behaviour. “Witnessing from afar, in horror, what was first going on in China and then in Italy and now in the US and other places, was this shattering of optimism. What the government is doing, I think very successfully, is helping us rebuild that sense of optimism. “It is unreasonable to expect certainly, but if there can be some sense that maybe we will stay in this pattern of stage three for a period of time, that will help.”

Victoria has for all intents and purposes entered a pandemic lockdown, with the outlawing of social gatherings and advice that people should remain in their homes unless they need to go out to buy food or medicine, daily exercise or work. Breaches of the restrictions are punishable by on-the-spot fines. People aged over 70 have been told to place themselves in self-isolation. The new regime, which Victoria adopted ahead of other states, comes as the rate of new infections in the state and nationally continues to fall. Victoria recorded 56 new COVID cases on Monday, bringing its total number of cases to 821. Modelling of the likely spread of the virus in Victoria by Melbourne University epidemiologist Tony Blakely indicates that the success of policies designed to suppress the rate of infection could delay the peak of the epidemic until late June.