We were treated to a thriller of a game in the first World Cup semi-final, and an absolutely dominant performance in the second. Tomorrow will mark the end of the world cup, and the game promises to be a cracker.

Comparing the Teams

There is not much between the performance of the teams in the World Cup so far. However, Australia seems to have better bowlers. Opposing batsmen were able to control only 73% of the shots they played against Aussie bowlers, as compared to 76% of shots against Kiwi bowlers. Consequently, Australians tend to pick up wickets faster the the Kiwis.

Batting Performance in World Cup ’15

Run Rate Balls/Wicket Batsmen Control (%) Australia 6.8 36.0 81.0% New Zealand 6.5 37.8 83.2%

Bowling Performance in World Cup ’15

Economy Rate Balls/Wicket Batsmen Control (%) Australia 5.1 24.2 72.7% New Zealand 5.0 27.8 75.7%

The Venue

The MCG, with its rich history, is a fitting venue for the World Cup Final. The MCG is a flat pitch that does not offer much movement to pacers or spinners. Yet, the large size of the ground has ensured that only 47.0% of runs have come through boundaries, slightly less than the 49.0% for the tournament as a whole. Bowlers have taken wickets once every 41 balls, compared to once every 37 balls for the world cup as a whole.

The bouncer – defined as a ball that ends more than 1.3m (or 4 feet 3 inches) above the stumps – has been bowlers’ most effective weapon at the MCG. While bouncers account for only 10.0% of the total balls bowled at the MCG, they account for 23.4% of wickets. In comparison, bouncers account for 7.1% of balls bowled at other grounds, and 12.4% of wickets.

But as India found out in Sydney, bouncers are expensive. At the MCG, they are hit for a strike rate of 115. Moreover, both Australian and Kiwi batsmen are good players of bounce. Australians have hit bouncers for a strike rate of 173 over the tournament, while the Kiwis have hit them at 192 (largely because it’s easier to hit a bouncer for six on smaller grounds).

Given that the MCG doesn’t offer much swing, and that both teams are well equipped to face bounce, I expect a high scoring game tomorrow, along with plenty of catches outside the 30 yard circle.

The Wildcards

Before we go into greater detail, it’s important to recognize the wildcards of the game – Brendon McCullum, Glenn Maxwell, and David Warner. These batsmen bat without inhibitions, and have incredible strike rates. Their control percentages, however, are amongst the lowest in the tournament.

Batsmen Control (%) Runs/Inning Strike Rate Brendon McCullum 71.4% 41.0 192.9 Glenn Maxwell 71.7% 54.0 183.1 David Warner 75.0% 42.9 125.0

It is very difficult for any analysis to take these batsmen into account. They can take a game away from the opposition even if they bat for just 50 balls, but their low control makes it hard to predict how long they will last.

Australian Bowling vs Kiwi Batting

Australian Bowling

The Australians possess the best bowler of the world cup in Mitchell Starc. Opposing batsmen have only been able to control 61.6% of the balls that he has bowled. His numbers have been unreal throughout the tournament, and he has the tournament’s best average by far at 10.5. He is also the tournament’s fastest bowler, bowling at an average speed of 146.4 kmph.

The combination of his speed and accuracy have made him a deadly opponent. He did not get much swing on the dry and flat SCG pitch (and is unlikely to get much at the MCG), but still tormented Rohit Sharma in his first over and was unlucky not to get him out. Starc has got most of his wickets by knocking the stumps, but also possesses a mean short ball.

Moreover, the Kiwis cannot just focus on Starc as he is supported by two absolutely world class bowlers in Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Johnson. Hazlewood’s height means that he can extract significant bounce from an already bouncy MCG pitch, while Johnson’s pace and experience mean that he can never be taken lightly. James Faulkner is not slouch with the ball either. New Zealand must make the most of the overs they face from Glenn Maxwell and Shane Watson.

Total Wickets Batsmen control (%) Strike Rate Bowling Average Economy Rate Mitchell Starc 20 61.6% 16.8 10.5 3.7 Josh Hazlewood 7 69.4% 29.9 21.9 4.4 Mitchell Johnson 11 73.5% 29.7 27.9 5.6 James Faulkner 7 71.4% 28.1 23.3 5.0 Shane Watson 3 78.0% 44.0 49.7 6.8 Glenn Maxwell 5 86.7% 37.2 37.0 6.0

Kiwi Batting

With the exception of Starc, New Zealand’s batting seems very well equipped to handle Australia’s bowlers. Their lineup does not seem to have any obvious weaknesses. Kane Williamson has been uncharacteristically streaky in his last 3 innings, but you can expect him to play with greater responsibility tomorrow. Ross Taylor has been rock solid in the middle-order for New Zealand. In the last 4 innings, he has played the role of the anchorman, putting a very high price on this wicket. His strike rate has been low, but given that the big hitters Anderson and Elliott follow him, he is probably not too worried about propping it up.

Batsman Control (%) Runs/Inning Strike Rate Brendon McCullum 71.4% 41.0 192.9 Martin Guptill 86.5% 66.5 109.2 Kane Williamson 88.3% 27.8 83.5 Ross Taylor 90.0% 22.6 63.1 Corey Anderson 77.5% 33.0 109.5 Grant Elliott 79.1% 32.4 107.1 Luke Ronchi 74.6% 12.2 128.1

If New Zealand bat first, Guptill, Williamson and Taylor will attempt to play grounded, risk-free stroked until the 30th over. If they reach 150 by 30th over and have more than 7 wickets in hand, Australia would be very worried. However, the presence of Starc and company make this scenario unlikely.

Weak Zones against pace

While most New Zealand batsmen don’t display any prominent “weak zones”, BMac is an exception. Top of off-stump seems like the ideal place to bowl to him, as he obliterates deliveries that are bowled anywhere else. His battle against Starc will be entertaining to watch, as Starc frequently tends to bowl in his weak zone.

Kiwi Bowling against Kiwi Batting

New Zealand have the world cup’s highest wicket taken in Trent Boult. However, Boult is a swing merchant who will not get much assistance from the flat MCG wicket (beyond the first 6 overs). The same could be said of Southee, who is an accomplished bowler but also relies heavily on swing to get his wickets. In the best case scenario, I can see them getting Warner and Finch out in the first 10 overs. But they are unlikely to contain the rest of the Australian batting. Moreover, the Kiwi pacers are significantly slower than their Aussie counterparts. Boult bowls at an average speed of 85.6 mph, and Southee bowls at an average speed of 83.0 mph. Both of them rarely bowl short.

As such, if Australia bats first, I think McCullum’s strategy should be one of containment instead of his trademark aggression. Matt Henry and Daniel Vettori will likely play a big role in this contest. Both of them are good at containing batsmen, and the larger MCG ground should aid their cause. Vettori, in particular, will be interesting. He will seek to get the right-handed Australian batsmen out, out of which only Steven Smith and Michael Clarke are good players of spin.

Corey Anderson, New Zealand’s “fifth bowler” has the highest strike-rate in the World Cup, and has an uncanny ability to take wickets without bowling particularly well. It will be interesting to see if he can continue his wicket-taking streak against Australia.

Total Wickets Batsmen control (%) Strike Rate Bowling Average Economy Rate Trent Boult 21 69.7% 21.4 15.9 4.5 Tim Southee 15 71.9% 29.2 27.9 5.7 Matt Henry 0 91.8% – – 5.0 Daniel Vettori 15 84.4% 28.3 18.8 4.0 Corey Anderson 14 73.5% 15.1 16.5 6.6

Australian Batting

Australia’s batting is a very deep, well-balanced unit. The fact that James Faulkner plays at number 8 tells a story in itself. They have two destructive wildcards in David Warner and Glenn Maxwell, and technically sound number 3 and 4 pair of Steven Smith and Michael Clarke. The hitting ability of Aaron Finch, Shane Watson, Brad Haddin and James Faulkner is nothing to be sneered at either. The Aussies are very good players of outswing and the short ball. If there is one weakness that they possess, it is that they tend to give away their wickets looking to play big shots far too often. But on a world cup final, I’m sure that they will contain this tendency.

Batsman Control (%) Runs/Inning Strike Rate David Warner 75.0% 42.9 125.0 Aaron Finch 79.5% 40.0 93.6 Steven Smith 89.2% 57.7 94.3 Michael Clarke 85.4% 29.0 92.9 Shane Watson 84.4% 34.3 107.9 Glenn Maxwell 71.7% 54.0 183.1 Brad Haddin 80.2% 25.2 157.5

Weak Zones

All of the Australian top 3 have discernible weak zones against pace. David Warner seems to have the largest weak zone, which is full and hitting the stumps. Given that he is overwhelmingly a horizontal-bat shot batsman, this is not surprising. Cramping him up on the stump would be a smart strategy. Warner has faced 21 deliveries in this region throughout the World Cup, scoring 14 runs from them and getting out twice.

Aaron Finch is extremely uncomfortable against deliveries that are hitting the top of off-stump, especially inswinging deliveries of this variety. This has been proved at various stages of the world cup, including the opening overs against India. I would not be surprised to see Boult get him out early on.

Steven Smith does not have many weaknesses, but he does seem to respect good length deliveries just outside off. Matt Henry would be a good bowler to bring on against Smith, since he had been very consistent with his line and length throughout 2014.

Final Thoughts

I expect an Australian win tomorrow, especially if they bat first. They are likely to post a big total, and they have the bowling attack to defend it. If New Zealand were to bat first, however, they might have a shot.

Many stars will have to align for that to happen, but if McCullum could get them off to an explosive start, and they get to 150 by the end of the thirtieth over without losing too many wickets, they might be in with a shot. They have the hitters to make a dent in the last 15 overs, and Australian have lost wickets at regular intervals when they have looked to attack in the tournament. If the Kiwis can utilize early swing, and use Vettori to contain the Aussie batsmen, they might have a shot at winning their first ever world cup.

By the numbers, though, it seems more likely that Australia will win their fifth.