All three routes being considered for a Scarborough subway run through “extremely low density” areas with few jobs and little potential for redevelopment, according to new data.

The numbers also call into question whether a Bellamy Rd. subway — one of three routes being considered and the least likely to cause duplication with Mayor John Tory (open John Tory's policard)’s planned SmartTrack line — is viable. It’s a choice that could cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.

Of the three options, the new analysis for the Star by University of Toronto human geography professor Andre Sorensen shows the Bellamy Rd. corridor would have the most people within walking distance of a station.

But by comparison, provincial data shows both Don Mills and Yonge-Sheppard stations on the Sheppard subway line — what has been called a “white elephant” for the riders it failed to draw — have more people living nearby than that of the entire Bellamy Rd. corridor.

Last week, city documents showed staff had narrowed the possible alignments for the subway to corridors along Bellamy Rd., McCowan Rd. and Midland Ave. Those options will be presented to the public this month at a series of meetings.

Sorensen’s analysis found the proposed routes are “basically equal” in that they are all low-density options.

The analysis uses 2011 census and jobs data to analyze the density of people and employment along the three routes. These are not ridership numbers, but show how many people are currently within an 800-metre walking distance of potential station stops.

When it comes to moving people around and getting people to jobs — objectives Tory has repeated as the main motivations for many of his recent transit initiatives — Sorensen’s numbers show little current or future potential to accomplish those goals.

Though the Bellamy Rd. corridor had the most people within walking distance of the three options, the analysis assumed a fourth station stop — as outlined by city planning documents.

As a Star analysis previously found, even with the possible four stops, two of the gaps between stations would become the longest such distances in the entire TTC subway network.

When council endorsed a subway for Scarborough in October 2013, they did so on the premise it would be a three-stop subway on the McCowan Rd. corridor. According to the TTC, any additional stops would cost $200 million.

And any additional tunneling — at least two kilometres in the case of the Bellamy Rd. option — would cost at least $180 million per kilometre.

Sorensen noted that the majority of population, jobs and possible intensification opportunities are centered around the Scarborough Town Centre. A stop at McCowan Rd. and Sheppard Ave. ranks second.

In any of these options, Sorensen said the majority of people would be arriving via bus to the subway stations, meaning there would need to be facilities to accommodate those transfers.

Population and jobs density for Scarborough subway options:

Midland Ave.

Population within 800 metres (walking distance): 11,071

Jobs within 800 metres: 3,826

McCowan Rd.

Population within 800 metres: 10,635

Jobs within 800 metres: 4,690

Bellamy Rd.

Population within 800 metres: 14,827

Jobs within 800 metres: 5,175

— Andre Sorensen, University of Toronto

The other subway

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If you build a subway, will riders come? The city has been here before, when it decided to build the Sheppard subway. Could council be heading down that road again?

When was it built?

Back when Mel Lastman was mayor of North York, the old Metro council approved a Sheppard subway from Yonge St. to Don Mills — at an estimated cost in 1995 of $875 million. By the time the 6.4-kilometre line opened in 2002, costs neared $1 billion.

Did it bring the new development?

There has been significant residential development with condominiums springing up in the past decade.

But do people actually use the subway?

Back then, supporters of the Sheppard subway adopted a “if you build it they will come” mentality about riders. But despite development, the subway has failed to pull those residents underground to get around or create jobs in the area to draw other people in. Today, it is the least-used subway line in the system, with just under 50,000 average weekday riders. As of last year, the number of annual riders also appears to have flat-lined, dropping to 15.1 million.

So, how much is that costing us?

Under the David Miller administration, council considered shuttering the subway to hemorrhage operating costs. According to current TTC chair Councillor Josh Colle (open Josh Colle's policard), the subway could cost the city an estimated $10-per-ride in subsidies just to break even.

How does this happen?

Politics play a big part. On large projects like this, where completion dates and final costs are years away, there’s a strong likelihood that a politician, who throws his or her support behind a project, won’t be in power after it’s built. This leads to short-term thinking, not long-term planning.

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The other option

Before council approved a subway for Scarborough, the province was committed to fully funding a longer, seven-stop light rail line that would run in its own right-of-way. Here’s how the LRT stacks up against the subway:

$2 billion: The minimum increase in cost to build a subway over the LRT. The city must also pay the subway’s operating costs and potential overruns.

7: The number of stations planned for the LRT. A subway option would have at least three stations, with any additional stations costing at least $200 million

15 minutes: The time it would take to get from Sheppard Ave. to Kennedy station on the LRT. It would take an estimated 10 minutes on a McCowan Rd. subway.

8 years: The extra time it will take to build a subway instead of an LRT, which was slated to be done this year, before council changed direction.

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