In 2012 and 2013, I looked at which passers were most effective on third and fourth downs; today, we examine those numbers for 2014. Throughout this article, when I refer to “third downs” or “third down performance”, note that such language is just shorthand for third and fourth downs.

To grade third down performance, I included sacks but discarded rushing data (in the interest of time, not because I thought that to be the better approach). The first step in evaluating third down performance is to calculate the league average conversion rate on third downs for each distance. Here were the conversion rates in 2014, along with the smoothed (linear) best-fit rates:

To Go Passes First Downs Rate Smoothed 1 258 151 58.5% 55.8% 2 389 216 55.5% 53.1% 3 477 231 48.4% 50.4% 4 502 248 49.4% 47.8% 5 523 237 45.3% 45.1% 6 464 208 44.8% 42.4% 7 436 187 42.9% 39.7% 8 461 174 37.7% 37% 9 363 107 29.5% 34.4% 10 590 176 29.8% 31.7% 11 216 52 24.1% 29% 12 179 50 27.9% 26.3% 13 131 23 17.6% 23.6% 14 126 21 16.7% 21% 15 118 18 15.3% 18.3% 16 84 14 16.7% 15.6% 17 68 9 13.2% 12.9% 18 64 8 12.5% 10.2% 19 50 4 8% 7.6% 20 56 7 12.5% 4.9%

Once we know the expected conversion rate for each distance, it’s easy to grade the quarterbacks. The next table is a bit complicated, so let me just walk you through the best third down quarterback in the league last year. Tony Romo had 141 third down passing plays (either pass attempts or sacks); the average distance “to go” on those plays was 7.0 yards, and the expected conversion rate (based on the smoothed rates in the table above for each play) was 39.8%; that means Romo would be expected, if he was an average quarterback, to convert 56.1 first downs. In reality, he converted 70 first downs, a 49.6% conversion rate. This means, despite being a choker, Romo produced 13.9 more first downs than expected, the best in the NFL (and the category by which the table is sorted). He also had a 1st down rate over expectation of 9.8%, the second-highest behind Carson Palmer’s injury-shortened season. On third downs, Romo averaged 6.82 Net Yards per Attempt and 7.74 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.

The players with the lowest expectation third down rates are those quarterbacks whose third down pass attempts were disproportionately coming on third and longs. So it’s not surprising that the three lowest expected rates came from the quarterbacks on Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. The 4th lowest expected rate, however, came from Russell Wilson. That’s more of a reflection of Seattle’s tendency to run (or Wilson to scramble, perhaps) on third and short. Wilson had just 20 throws on 3rd and less than 4 yards (he converted 11); as a point of comparison, Matt Ryan had 43.

The highest expected rates come from quarterbacks who often threw on 3rd and short; among regulars, you won’t be too surprised to see Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Andrew Luck at the top of that list.

At the risk of igniting a Manning/Brady debate, the numbers here are interesting. Manning averaged 7.15 NY/A and 8.24 ANY/A on third downs, both excellent numbers. Brady was a little worse, at 6.33 NY/A and 6.74 ANY/A. But Brady converted 1 more first down despite having 11 fewer opportunities. Brady’s third down rate was excellent, while Manning’s was merely very good. Manning had 11 conversions go for at least 30 yards, compared to just 3 for Brady. Neither ANY/A nor 3rd down conversion rates tell the story — getting the first down is key, but it’s also better to gain more yards than less, so a 30-yard pass on 3rd-and-5 is better than a 6-yard one. As usual, pick your flavor here.

Colin Kaepernick had a bad year, right? Well, not so much on third downs, where he was one of the most productive players in the league.

The three Washington quarterbacks all managed to produce putrid numbers on third downs. That gives us another explanation for how the team was so bad, yet ranked 4th in yards per pass attempt.

With three years of data, let’s look at the 22 quarterbacks who have had at least 70 third down attempts in each year since 2012. The table below shows each quarterback’s 1st Down Rate Over Expectation for the three years. You won’t be too surprised to see which quarterbacks top the list:

QB 2012 2013 2014 Avg Peyton Manning 9.5% 10.7% 2.3% 7.5% Drew Brees 6.2% 7.4% 6.8% 6.8% Aaron Rodgers 2.4% 8.3% 8.5% 6.4% Tony Romo 7.2% 0% 9.8% 5.7% Philip Rivers -0.2% 9.9% 6.7% 5.5% Matt Ryan 7.7% 4.4% 2.8% 5% Tom Brady 8.1% -0.2% 5.8% 4.6% Ben Roethlisberger 5.9% 1.5% 6% 4.5% Colin Kaepernick 1% 5.1% 5.6% 3.9% Matthew Stafford 6.8% 2.8% -0.7% 3% Carson Palmer -2.4% -0.4% 10.9% 2.7% Nick Foles -1.6% 7.7% 1.4% 2.5% Ryan Fitzpatrick 3.5% 5.9% -2.6% 2.3% Russell Wilson 3.6% 2% -2.3% 1.1% Jay Cutler -0.5% 4.6% -1.9% 0.7% Cam Newton -1.8% 3.3% -0.5% 0.3% Eli Manning -3.2% -0.2% 3.4% 0% Andrew Luck 3.6% -5.5% 0.9% -0.3% Alex Smith -2.8% -2.1% 3% -0.6% Andy Dalton -8.2% 5% 1.2% -0.7% Joe Flacco -2.4% -1.6% -0.5% -1.5% Ryan Tannehill -3.1% -1.2% -0.5% -1.6% Avg 1.8% 3.1% 3% 2.6%

I’m not nearly the Ryan Tannehill lover that some out there seem to be, and these numbers cast the Dolphins passer in a poor light. Tannehill’s good enough to be a regular starting quarterback, but has yet to show much evidence that he’s an above-average starter.