The three time bombs lurking amid the Brexit negotiations At its heart, Brexit is a problem of time and capacity. The UK doesn’t have enough of either. This is […]

At its heart, Brexit is a problem of time and capacity. The UK doesn’t have enough of either. This is why David Davis has lost the swagger he had when he first became Brexit secretary and replaced it with a kind of perpetual flummoxed anxiety.

‘Any of these issues would be enough to dominate until March 2019. But we must deal with all of them ‘

His speech last week confirmed that Britain would keep its relationship with the EU completely unchanged in transition. There’s simply no time to do anything else.

But even this is not enough. Davis still faces the problem of how to stay inside the deals the EU has signed with other countries after March 2019. We might be able to get Brussels to roll over its arrangements with us, but there are no guarantees other countries will play ball. Negotiators are particularly concerned about three areas: trade, aviation and nuclear material.

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1. Dead trade deals

The UK is currently a signatory to dozens of EU negotiated trade agreements. These are crucial to many businesses. The South Korean deal, for instance, significantly boosts car exports, while half the UK’s seed potato exports come under a tariff agreement with Egypt. When we leave the EU, we’ll fall out of these deals.

Trade secretary Liam Fox insisted he could negotiate extensions to the deals bilaterally. Last October he bragged that he’d have them in place by Brexit day. “All these faint hearts saying we cannot do it,” he complained. “It’s absolute rubbish.”

Now his department has effectively been put into special measures. London has given up trying to negotiate the deals itself and is instead asking Brussels for help. But even with a united front, there are no guarantees. When Britain and the EU united to sort out tariffs at the WTO they were roundly rebuffed by their trading partners.

2. Up in the air

Airplane tickets are already being sold for the post-Brexit period, but it’s unclear if the passengers buying them will actually be able to board the flights.

The UK is currently part of a single European aviation market and will seek to stay in it during transition. But flights to several major destinations outside Europe, such as the US and Canada, are governed by deals with the EU. When we stop being an EU member, we fall out of the agreements.

There’s a similar issue with airplane equipment. Everything you see on a plane in Europe – from the landing gear to the trolley they push down the aisle – has been certified as safe by the European Aviation Safety Agency.

Again, Britain will want to stay inside the agency during transition. And again, the problem will be with other countries, like Canada, India and China, whose own certification body has a deal with the EU.

Why should they recognise British safety standards, when it is so unclear about the type of country it is going to become? These countries need detailed technical assurances about the regime we’ll adopt post-Brexit. They can’t just be waved away with vague promises.

3. Half-life

After Brexit day, Britain needs to figure out how to keep importing radioactive isotopes for cancer screening and treatment. Of all the problems it faces in March next year, this is the arguably the most serious.

The rules around transporting radioactive isotopes are extremely strict. Importers must demonstrate that they know where the material is at every stage of the journey, from the point it enters the country to disposal. And this needs to happen to razor sharp timetables. Molybdenum-99, which is used in 90% of scans, has a half life of just 66 hours. Blockages at the border means you lose radioactivity literally by the minute.

At the moment, the regulation is handled by Euratom, a pan-European system dedicated to ensuring the smooth flow of radioactive material. Britain announced its intention to leave Euratom when it triggered Article 50, in a move which horrified many scientists.

‘If radioactive exporters refuse to keep exporting to us, the consequences are life-threatening’

That decision alone will eventually have huge implications, forcing the UK to either negotiate some kind of associate membership or massively bulk up its domestic regulator. But there is also a more immediate problem, identical to the issues with trade and aviation: how do you carry over Euratom’s existing deals with third parties?

Britain needs major radioactive exporters – like South Africa, the US, Canada, Australia and even Russia – to agree to keep exporting to us during transition. If they refuse, the consequences are life-threatening.

Any of these issues would be enough to dominate the attention of government in the short period of time available before March 2019. But it must deal with all of them – and countless others – while simultaneously negotiating the main Brexit deal.

It doesn’t have the time or capacity to do so, and nor does it seem to have the basic sense of organisation or purpose which one would expect of a government which was up to the task.

Ian Dunt is editor of Politics.co.uk

@IanDunt