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The first week of the NFL season I like to pore over recent opening-week action to determine if we can gain an edge on the books by picking apart oddsmakers’ thoughts through the use of betting systems.

These systems are sorted by a personal grading system that factors in net units above zero, winning percentage, R.O.I., and likelihood of the angle occurring again in 2019. Note also, lines used were as of Saturday and may differ slightly at the time of wagering. All stats and records noted are based strictly on regular-season games of the prior season.

Week 1 non-divisional conference games featuring a road favorite and a total greater than 41 are 24-4 Under (85.7 percent) the total since 1999.

Potential Plays: Play Under the total in Chiefs vs. Jaguars, Rams vs. Panthers and Lions vs. Cardinals.

Play Under the total in Chiefs vs. Jaguars, Rams vs. Panthers and Lions vs. Cardinals. Analysis: Considering the home teams in this particular system have scored just 14.2 PPG in the 28 contests, it would seem these teams are home ’dogs for a good reason — they can’t score. The result is obvious, take the Under. Last year there was no play on this system as the Tennessee-Miami game closed with a pick ’em line. Fortunately, we have three opportunities in 2019.

Week 1 home favorites that had a worse record than their opponent the previous season are 33-13-5 ATS (71.7 percent) since 2000.

Potential Plays: Play on the Jets, Browns and Raiders.

Play on the Jets, Browns and Raiders. Analysis: This system has provided longevity but was 0-2 a year ago, so perhaps the tide is turning. Three more plays are on tap for 2019 as this is a nice transitional system showing that oddsmakers mostly get it right many times in analyzing teams’ changes in the offseason. Ironically, all three teams on this year’s list are pegged by experts as among those having a chance for big improvement.

Week 1 games with totals of less than 48 points and featuring home teams that won at least 11 games against the spread the prior regular season are 16-2 Over (88.9 percent) the total since 2002.