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David Robertson the litmus test for Yankees’ tax mandate

The Yankees — to some degree because they are the Yankees — remain linked to star-level players such as Yu Darvish (via free agency) and Manny Machado (through trade), and as the Giancarlo Stanton acquisition proved once again, never say never with this organization.

But with anything the Yankees try for in 2018, shoehorning dollars into a tight budget is central to decision making. Therefore, Stanton’s surprise addition makes it tougher to launch any further surprises.

Thus, Yankees executives continue to believe the rest of their offseason is about chasing a cost controllable starter such as Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole (looking more doubtful now) or Arizona’ Patrick Corbin and/or trying to sign a veteran infielder whose asking price falls in this slow-moving market, a Neil Walker type.





Brian Cashman’s mantra — on the record and over and over again — has been “we are getting under” the $197 million luxury-tax threshold.

The Yanks currently have $172 million-ish tied up in seven signed players, an estimate of what eight arbitration players will cost via MLB Trade Rumors, obligations from trades for Brian McCann and Chase Headley and the $14 million-ish each club will be charged for benefits such as pensions and insurance.

The rest of the 25-man roster would cost about $7 million, potentially more if a non-roster player with a seven-figure major league deal makes the squad.

So on the most optimistic side (assuming, for example, no losses in an arbitration hearing) there is about $18 million to cover in-season call-ups plus money put aside for the trade deadline and in case players such as CC Sabathia, Giancarlo Stanton, etc., reach contractual awards or performance bonuses. Machado is likely to receive about $18 million through the arbitration process and Darvish more than that, even if his market falls in this slow-moving free-agency period.





Thus, for the Yankees to obtain either or any kind of more expensive luxury item such as Mike Moustakas on a one-year pillow contract, they would have to reduce dollars from their current payroll.

They would love to move as much of the three years at $68.5 million owed Jacoby Ellsbury (who counts $21.9 million annually toward the luxury-tax payroll). But there are plenty of outfielders better than Ellsbury still on the market, plus Ellsbury has a no-trade clause. The Orioles actually like Ellsbury a little, but indications are he might consider waiving his no-trade to be closer to his Scottsdale, Ariz., home with maybe the Diamondbacks or Giants making some sense.

The Yanks could try to pressure Ellsbury by pointing out he is currently the fifth outfielder, but even if he agreed to a move and a team were interested, I can’t imagine any club taking on more than $5 million per year (if that), and would Hal Steinbrenner agree to eat more than $50 million?





Brett Gardner, who has an option for next year and costs $13 million toward the tax, would be more easily tradeable, but the Yanks love not only his game, but his leadership with such a young core. Dellin Betances (about $4.5 million) or Adam Warren ($3 million-ish) could save some money via trades.

But the biggest dent within reason would come from trading David Robertson ($11.5 million for luxury-tax purposes and entering his walk year). The Yanks have depth to set-up Aroldis Chapman with Betances, Warren, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle.

Robertson, though, is coming off a terrific season, is the most logical fill-in if something were to happen to Chapman, and Robertson has taken on a leadership role as well, in part because of his Andrew Miller-ish willingness to be used in any situation without qualms.





The Cardinals, in particular, need a closer and, in players such as Jedd Gyorko or Kolten Wong, have infield depth that could entice the Yankees, and/or perhaps rotation depth with a prospect such as Jack Flaherty. For a half season of Chapman in 2016, the Yanks got a strong package from the Cubs headed by Gleyber Torres. Robertson is not viewed as overpowering, but he has a full season left and his curveball last year became a dominant weapon, so the Yanks would expect a significant return.

But I have sensed no desire by the Yankees to disassemble that pen strength, especially because it protects the rotation and becomes more vital in the playoffs.

Yet, without a move like this, the Yankees will be dealing more in the Cole/Walker arena than capable of playing for a Darvish or a Machado or probably even a Moustakas.





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