What Would 2016 Have Looked Like With Paul as GOP Nominee?

by Josh Guckert

It’s eleven weeks until Election Day 2016 as the two major-party nominees attempt to court voters. On the Democratic side is Hillary Clinton and her running mate Julian Castro. While her nomination was fairly predictable, far more interesting is her opponent: Republican Rand Paul. He runs with vice presidential nominee Susana Martinez.

The race is fairly tight, though Paul holds a slight edge in most polls. Popular site FiveThirtyEight projects that Paul holds a 63% chance of victory if the campaign ended today. To understand where the election might wind up, it’s important to note how it got here.

For the Democrats, Clinton faced only nominal opposition from candidates like Martin O’Malley, Lincoln Chafee, and Jim Webb. She swept all of the early states before chasing the others out of the race. Notably absent from the campaign was a more progressive voice, as potential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren decided not to run.

The Republican side was far less simple. Over a dozen candidates sought the nomination. In fact, some of the only notable individuals to expressly refuse to seek the nomination were Donald Trump (who chose to instead host another season of “The Apprentice”) and Ted Cruz (who stated that after deep thought, this was “not his time,” and as a result, endorsed Paul).

The campaign eventually settled to a race between Paul, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio. With the latter two splitting the “establishment” vote and funds, Paul was able to achieve victories in all caucus states and earn the votes of Tea Party and conservative voters. He coasted to a narrow victory, finally reaching the magic number of 1,237 on May 3 in the Indiana primary.

While there has been some push-back from traditional Republican donors and politicians due to Paul’s non-traditional stances on foreign policy and social issues, the “Never Paul” movement has remained small. Paul has followed the gameplan identified by the RNC to appeal to younger voters, single women, and racial minorities.

He and his chosen running mate, Governor Martinez, received their respective nominations at the Republican National Convention in July. The Convention was one of the most diverse in history, as Americans of all races, nationalities, and backgrounds were welcome. Commentators remarked on the unbelievable subject matter of the “conservative” party, as a non-interventionist foreign policy, ending the War on Drugs, and enacting criminal justice reform were focal points.

All of Paul’s former presidential competitors spoke glowingly of the Kentucky Senator and endorsed him. A speech from Thomas Massie, who was chosen to replace Paul in the Kentucky Senate election, was seen by many as the national launch of another libertarian Republican.

Also notable was the new “fusion” coalition of Libertarians and Republicans which arose in the aftermath of the Libertarian National Convention. Because of an interest in seeing Paul succeed in November, the Libertarians chose him as their nominee in Orlando. The move became possible when former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who had previously been skeptical of Paul, decided to withdraw his name after the first ballot.

The Democrats have faced more issues in uniting their fractured base. Traditional Democratic voters have started to take a look at the Republican nominee, as he has pledged bipartisanship. As a result, Paul is currently polling in the high-20s among black Americans and the low-40s among Hispanics.

While neither number is impressive without context, either would be enough to signal a marked improvement for the GOP. Perhaps most important is that Paul has begun to draw votes from Clinton among young Americans, with a recent poll showing him tied with her among this crucial demographic. These voters cite Paul’s stances on foreign policy and drugs as turning points.

Meanwhile, Clinton simply does not resonate with these Americans in the same way Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012. Many commentators believe that Clinton’s failures with youth and minority groups is what ultimately caused her to look for a “spark ” in choosing Castro as her vice presidential running mate.

The 2016 election will no doubt be tight, and history shows that the Democrats will have a tough time winning a third-straight election. Moreover, Paul’s fundamental change of the Republican brand has put it in position to win not just this November, but for many years to come.