Despite doubters, Reds aim for top of NL Central

It's pretty clear the Reds didn't win the offseason. The moves they made weren't enough to sway the prognosticators that they'll return to contention.

The preview magazines mostly have them finishing fifth in the five-team National League Central. One of the ESPN.com rankings has them No. 24 among the 30 teams in baseball.

This isn't terribly surprising. The Reds finished 76-86 last year and fourth in the Central. While the Reds made a lot of moves this offseason, none of them was a broad-stroke, attention-getting upgrade. The team that finished behind them in the Central, the Chicago Cubs, were one of the teams that made a lot of bold moves.

But the Reds open camp on Wednesday confident they can return to contention, despite what the experts say.

"That doesn't bother us," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "We like being under the radar. We like our club. If we stay healthy, this is very good club."

The goal is to get back on top of the Central.

"No one up here is thinking about anything less than winning the Central," Reds manager Bryan Price said as the Winter Caravan wrapped up.

The moves the Reds made in the offseason — adding Marlon Byrd through a trade, signing Burke Badenhop and Kevin Gregg, trading Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon for prospects — aren't going to turn a team that finished 10 games under .500 into a contender.

But the Reds played 100 games last year without Joey Votto. You can argue all you want about his approach at the plate, but you can't argue the fact that the Reds are an infinitely better team with him in the lineup. In the previous three or four years before last year, the Reds won at least 90 games and made the playoffs. With Votto out or ineffective most of last year, the Reds were never a threat in the second half.

If Votto's healthy, it will go a long way toward getting the Reds where they need to be. But they'll also need more from Jay Bruce — a lot more. Bruce had an awful year last year. He hit .217 with a career-low 18 home runs. In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, people tend to forget Bruce was a very good hitter very recently. He had 30 home runs, 43 doubles and 109 RBI in 2013. He was second in the NL in extra-base hits that year.

If Bruce and Votto return to their '13 levels, it will be good for roughly 10 or 11 wins based on WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

That should give the Reds a chance.

Sean Casey, a semi-unbiased observer, thinks the Reds are underrated.

"I think they're better than what people think," said Casey, the former Red and current MLB Network analyst. "Anytime you've got Johnny Cueto as your No. 1, you've got to feel good about that. You've got Mike Leake. You've got Homer Bailey. That's a pretty formidable three. You're going to get guys back. (Joey) Votto is going to be back. Jay Bruce is going to be back from that knee. I don't think he was totally healthy last year. Brandon Phillips was hurt.

"It was a MASH until last year. You have (Aroldis) Chapman in the 'pen. It's going to be a good team. If they stay healthy, it's going to be a good product."

Pretty much everyone is going to use "if healthy" when assessing the Reds. If you find someone who thinks they can get as little from Votto and Bruce as they did last year and win, ask them how much of the Kool-Aid they've had to drink.

The Reds — even with a payroll that will approach $120 million — cannot guard against their highest-paid and best players being hurt and ineffective.

Jocketty is satisfied he addressed the other major issues.

"Coming out of the Winter Meetings, we wanted to add a power bat for left field," he said. "We did that with Byrd. We wanted to add to the depth of our rotation. We've done that with (Anthony) DeSclafani. We've also got Tony Cingrani and David Holmberg. And we brought in (Jason) Marquis and (Paul) Maholm to give us some veteran experience.

"Badenhop and Gregg should solidify the bullpen."

The wild card in all this is Raisel Iglesias, the Cuban right-hander the Reds signed to a seven-year, $30 million deal. Iglesias blew scouts away with his stuff in the Arizona Fall League. If he takes that fourth starter spot, that will go a long way toward solidifying the bullpen.

The one area the Reds didn't address much is the bench. The club traded away Chris Heisey, the only pinch-hit power threat.

The Reds are hoping some of the non-roster invitees can help.

The club added infielder/outfielder Chris Dominguez last week. Dominguez was a top prospect with San Francisco.

"We think he's a guy who can help us. He's versatile. He can play all the corner positions. He's played shortstop in the minors. He's got some power. The only downside is strikeouts. We'll work on that."

The Reds also added Brennan Boesch in November.

"Don't forget about him," Jocketty said. "He had excellent numbers at Triple-A."

The Reds are going to have to get lucky with some players like Dominguez and Boesch. They're also going to need Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco to hit close to what they hit last year.

If — again a big if — some of that happens and Bruce and Votto are healthy, all of the prognosticators could be wrong.