Hurricane researchers predict 2020 may be in for higher-than-normal hurricane activity. The number of named storms is also forecast to be higher-than-average.

According to meteorologists at Colorado State University, a primary factor for the elevated activity is the likely absence of El Niño.

Additionally, researchers note another factor favoring an active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season are the sea surface temperatures of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which are currently warmer than their long-term average values.

“The tropical Atlantic is somewhat warmer than normal right now. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic provide more fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also associated with a more unstable atmosphere as well as moister air, both of which favor organized thunderstorm activity that is necessary for hurricane development.” say the forecasters.

What is the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicting?

During the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, 16 named storms are predicted. Researchers expect eight of those to become hurricanes. Of those eight, four are predicted to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater, according to the research team.

The forecast team warns that it estimates upcoming hurricane activity to be at “about 140 percent of the average season,” compared to 2019’s hurricane activity which “was about 120 percent of the average season.”

Forecasters say the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 69 percent for the entire U.S. coastline. (The average for the last century is 52 percent.)

So far, the 2020 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1960, 1966, 1980, 1996, and 2008. “1966, 1980, 1996 and 2008 had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1960 was a near-average hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 4, July 7 and August 6.

“The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.”

READ MORE:

Thanks for visiting PennLive. Quality local journalism has never been more important. We need your support. Not a subscriber yet? Please consider supporting our work.