Premier Kathleen Wynne’s minority Liberals are poised to lose two key byelections in Thornhill and Niagara Falls next week, new polls suggest.

With voters casting ballots on Feb. 13, the Forum Research surveys found the governing Grits in tough in both ridings.

In Thornhill, which had been held by retired Progressive Conservative MPP Peter Shurman, Tory candidate Gila Martow was at 47 per cent to 37 per cent for Liberal Sandra Yeung Racco.

The NDP’s Cindy Hackelberg and Green Party’s Teresa Pun were tied with 6 per cent apiece.

In Niagara Falls — formerly represented by Liberal MPP Kim Craitor — the NDP’s Wayne Gates was at 38 per cent, one-time MPP Tory Bart Maves had 36 per cent, Liberal Joyce Morocco had 19 per cent, and the Greens’ Clarke Bitter 3 per cent.

On Thursday, Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Liberal hopes of winning Thornhill are dimming thanks in part to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s recent trip to Israel, which was well received in a riding where 40 per cent of residents are Jewish.

“As much as there’s a done deal in politics, this is a done deal for the Tories,” said Bozinoff, noting even if the Liberals have a superior get-out-the-vote operation next Thursday it will be difficult to close the gap.

Three weeks ago, Martow was at 44 per cent to 36 per cent for Yeung Racco. In that earlier poll, the Greens were at 10 per cent and the NDP at 7 per cent.

But a PC victory in Thornhill could be tempered by a stinging defeat in Niagara Falls to the New Democrats.

Tory Leader Tim Hudak, whose seat is now Niagara West—Glanbrook MPP, represented parts of the riding before redistribution and it includes his hometown of Fort Erie.

Bozinoff noted the Tories were at 36 per cent to 28 per cent apiece for the NDP and Liberals in Forum’s Jan. 15 Niagara Falls poll. The Greens were at 5 per cent.

“There’s big movement by the NDP. They’ve got the ‘big mo’ in that riding and their get-out-the-vote (operation) could mean that we are underreporting their actual vote on election day,” he said, pointing to the NDP’s strong showing in byelections in London West last year and Kitchener—Waterloo in 2012.

Perhaps wary of the NDP surge in Niagara, Hudak on Thursday tried to play down his party’s controversial “right-to-work” pledge that has galvanized unionists and divided Conservatives.

But Bozinoff cautioned against extrapolating too much from next week’s byelection results.

“It’s entirely possible that parties could be giving back these seats in a general election,” he said of a vote expected as early as May.

“I think this will embolden the NDP and the NDP will conclude that, ‘Yeah, we can do this in every riding.’ I’m not sure that’s really the lesson from this.”

Forum polled 576 people in Niagara Falls on Wednesday and results are considered accurate to within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In Thornhill, the pollster surveyed 527 people with the same margin of error of four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Like most polling firms, Forum uses a proprietary weighting formula, which has been shared with the Star, to more accurately reflect the broader electorate. Raw data from this poll will be housed in the Political Science Data Library at the University of Toronto.

In the 107-member minority legislature, the Liberals have 49 seats, including Speaker Dave Levac, the Tories have 36, and the NDP has 20.

With files from Richard J. Brennan

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