WASHINGTON — His Democratic opponents do not believe it. His Republican allies don’t buy it. Even President Trump has ample reason, based on the intelligence reports he has seen, to doubt Saudi Arabia’s account of what happened to Jamal Khashoggi.

But Mr. Trump’s ready acceptance of the Saudi explanation that Mr. Khashoggi was killed accidentally in a fistfight — rather than in an orchestrated hit ordered by the Saudi royal court — suggests how he plans to ride out the most acute foreign policy crisis of his presidency.

With the midterm elections less than three weeks away and a political base more focused on jobs and the confirmation of Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, Mr. Trump is betting he can stand by his Saudi allies and not suffer any significant damage with voters, allies and analysts said.

“I think we’re getting close to solving a big problem,” Mr. Trump said Friday when he was asked about the Saudi confirmation of Mr. Khashoggi’s death and a shake-up of its intelligence services, to be carried out by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.