5G, Gigabit LTE, Millimeter Wave: What Will be Real, When

Karl Bode and commentators are right there's enormous hype at the moment in wireless, especially on 5G millimeter wave. However, there are remarkable improvements coming out of the labs as well, many arriving this year. I thought to add a comment to a story that had been posted here, but as I started writing I realized I needed more space. I've reported broadband since 1999. I make mistakes; if you notice one, please email daveb@dslprime.com.

I haven't been this excited since DSL and cable modems came out around 2000. Here's what looks solid, per discussions with engineers around the world.

We are entering a Wireless Age of Abundance. It will take some time to reach most people. The engineers are ready to deliver a ten to twenty-five times increase in capacity, using 4G, Massive MIMO, and half a dozen other emerging technologies. Weak competition with weak regulation will hold back progress in some places.

You will not get a gigabit on your mobile phone until at least 2020 and more likely 2022-2024. I've seen a demonstration of 20 gigabits, shared, but that's not out of the labs yet. The technology, 5G high frequency millimeter waves, is enormously complicated and it will take years to develop the standard and design the equipment for phones.

A very limited number of homes will get high speeds - quite possibly a gigabit - starting in 2017. Serving homes is much easier to do than connecting moving phones. Among other things, the antennas can be much larger, crucial for high frequencies. Mobile mmWave is two to four years away, so a little hype skepticism is warranted.

​On the other hand, by late 2017 some Americans will receive 100-400 megabit downloads on their mobile phones. It's called Gigabit LTE because the cell transmits a gigabit or close, but that's shared among many users. Phones with good connections often will see real world speeds over 100 megabits and sometimes 400-500 megabits. You will not get those speeds behind walls or at the edge of the cell.

However, even there most will probably see speeds two or three times higher than today. That's what Sprint, T-Mobile, and AT&T are talking about when they promise "Gigabit LTE" in 2017. (Explained in my article, For non-engineers. How LTE gets to the gigabit: 4x4 MIMO, 4 Band Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM).

There's much more coming. Massive MIMO is deploying to thousands of cells in Japan and China. The engineers in charge report 3X to 10X capacity improvements. Half a dozen other important technologies are starting to reach the field.

Few need a gigabit or even 100 megabits, but the added capacity also means everyone will get higher speeds. The phone companies can serve more data to more customers. Already, the cost to deliver a bit is coming down. David Small of Verizon estimating the cost is going down 40% per year. I have data fromTelefonica that implies their cost dropped 60% in the last year. The progress is amazing.

Coming soon in Part 2: A closer explanation of the technologies and what they will deliver.