A redrawn commute The suburban rail loop could change the way people move around Melbourne, by putting hundreds of thousands of people within closer reach of jobs, study and services. It could radically redraw workers’ commuting patterns around Melbourne, an economics expert said. Terry Rawnsley, a partner at consultancy SGS Economics, said the proposed loop could expand people’s job options.

He gave the example of a nurse living in Fawkner who travels to the Royal Melbourne Hospital on the Upfield line. A rail loop would make the Austin Hospital in Heidelberg just as, if not more, accessible, he said. Mr Rawnsley said that although there were many unanswered questions about the cost and timing of the project, it did break away from the previous model of enlarging established transport corridors. “At the moment, travel engineers say there is X number of people driving on the Monash Freeway, or travelling on the Cranbourne-Pakenham rail corridor, so how do we make those routes wider so people can move faster?” Mr Rawnsley said.“They don’t think about how can we give people options for moving around the city.” Plan Melbourne, the state government's planning blueprint for Melbourne in 2050, lists a dozen employment “clusters” around the suburbs, and the rail loop would stop at four of them: Monash, Bundoora (servicing Latrobe), Sunshine and Werribee. An overhead view of Sunshine railway station, which would link with the proposed Suburban Rail Loop. Credit:Jason South

Melbourne, mega-city By the time the suburban rail loop is promised to be completed in 2050, Melbourne will have almost doubled in size. If official population projections are correct, it will be a city of 8 million people by 2050. That’s an extra 1 million people every 10 years, or 100,000 new residents a year.

But the truth is Melbourne's growth is outstripping government projections − more than 125,000 people moved here or were born here last year. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Keep up that pace of growth, and Melbourne will be a city of 9 million by 2050. That’s slightly bigger than greater London is today, and bigger than Asian mega-cities Hong Kong and Bangkok. Population growth has emerged as a sleeper issue in Victorian politics.

The vision of Melbourne as mega-city is one that makes many people wary; they worry about a city that is becoming too congested, too densely populated in some parts and too sprawling in others. Melburnians have become much more concerned about population growth since Daniel Andrews became Premier in November 2014, according to Ipsos quarterly surveys. In four years, it has risen from a lowly ranking of 16th on a list of 19 issues Ipsos surveys Victorians about to our sixth biggest concern. But Tuesday’s surprise announcement by Mr Andrews – that his government plans to build a massive underground rail loop - suggests that Melbourne is on an irreversible course towards mega-city status. Paris, population 12 million, has already started building a vast “ring rail” network beneath its suburbs, at an estimated cost of $61.3 billion.

Vincent Baumont, one of the project’s directors, told The Age last year that this city would need one too. Development Victoria's strategic assessment of the project suggests a rail loop would unlock a huge boom in rail patronage. Train travel makes up just 5 per cent of trips in Melbourne, compared with 21 per cent in London, the assessment says. Melbourne is tipped to be home to 8 million people by 2050. Credit:Jesse Marlow A recipe for greater urban density

But the underground stations of London and Paris service suburbs that are much more densely populated than Melbourne’s middle ring. Planning expert Professor John Stanley, from the University of Sydney, said the middle suburbs needed greater housing density to manage Melbourne's continued rapid population growth, and avoid condemning the city to worsening congestion and increased travel times. But Professor Stanley, who advised both the Napthine and Andrews governments on their urban blueprint Plan Melbourne, said no state government had yet shown the “courage” to follow through on that recommendation. The new rail loop “goes to the right places”, he said. “But they’ll have to go hell for leather to increase the density along that corridor, and along the radial corridors that connect to it, to make it work.” Plan Melbourne projects the city will have an extra 1.5 million homes by 2050.

By Professor Stanley’s reckoning, that should mean thousands of new homes will be built in middle suburbs including Glen Waverley, Burwood, Heidelberg, Fawkner and Broadmeadows. He conceded this could provoke a NIMBY backlash. Booming ... Cranbourne East has the highest population growth in Australia. Credit:Joe Armao A rail-led housing boom? The suburban rail loop could promote a new housing boom around its 12 new stations, and curb growth on the urban fringe.

Nine of the 10 fastest growing suburbs in Melbourne are in new housing estates on the edge of suburbia, in three residential growth corridors in the west, north and south-east. Professor Stanley and economist Terry Rawnsley agree the loop could rein in urban sprawl. “If you look at where population is growing, it is growing away from jobs,” Professor Stanley said. “It’s happening in the outer suburbs, but most of the jobs aren’t in the outer suburbs.” Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video

One in five jobs in greater Melbourne is in the CBD, 2016 census data shows. Mr Rawnsley said it was already possible to envision two radically different future versions of Melbourne; one with the suburban rail loop and one without it. “The early announcement [of the project] will give the housing market time to adjust, there will be certainty that will encourage density along the corridor, which might actually save some of that urban development going on way up north, south-east and west,” Mr Rawnsley said. “So Melbourne will look quite different in 30 years time with this project than without it.”