Nevada Wolf Pack Head coach: Norvell (11-14, third year) 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 8-5 (77th) Projected 2019 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-5 (83rd) Five key points: Coming off of the Wolf Pack’s best win total since Colin Kaepernick was QB, they will look to solidify gains in 2019. The offense appears ready for a breakthrough ... if it has a QB, anyway. Ty Gangi is gone, and the replacement crew is a mystery. The supporting cast, from slot WR Kaleb Fossum to RB Toa Taua to WR Romeo Doubs to LT Jake Nelson, has lots of upside for whoever wins the QB job. Jeff Casteel’s defense saw dramatic improvement last year but has a ton of production to replace, especially in the back. We’ll find out if recent star recruits are ready. The schedule doesn’t feature many tossups — five likely wins and four likely losses mean we basically know what to expect in 2019. But Norvell’s building something exciting.

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Your performance as an assistant coach doesn’t tell us much about your eventual performance as a head coach. Our reflex reactions to head coaching hires almost always have to do with our impressions of the guy as an assistant.

That was certainly the case for me when Nevada hired Norvell, anyway. His last few years as an assistant were not his best.

After a run of success as Oklahoma’s offensive co-coordinator (which followed an intensely mediocre few years as OC at Nebraska and UCLA), his Sooners slipped to 30th in Off. S&P+ in 2013, and, despite a 2014 rebound, Norvell was allowed to leave for Charlie Strong’s shuffled staff at Texas in 2015.

The Longhorns ranked 59th.

He went to Arizona State in 2016, and they ranked 48th.

As a result, I didn’t feel all that great about Nevada hiring him in 2017. At least, I didn’t until I saw the hires he was making. Having middling success over his last few years didn’t prevent Norvell from putting together a strong staff or raising Nevada’s recruiting profile.

And it didn’t prevent him from a second-year breakthrough in Reno.

The program had slipped since the 13-1 breakthrough of 2010. The Wolf Pack went 7-6 in Hall of Famer Chris Ault’s final two seasons as head coach, then went from the 60s and 70s in S&P+ to the 90s and 100s in four years under Brian Polian. Norvell’s first season was a Year Zero — the Pack went 3-9 (their worst record since the start of the century) with a young offense and a hellscape of a defense.

In 2018, Nevada treaded water early on, beating Oregon State and Air Force before showing potential against Fresno State and Boise State. And when the schedule eased up, the Pack went on a tear. They won four games in a row before a strange upset loss to rival UNLV, then pulled off one of the least likely bowl wins you’ll ever see, a 16-13 victory over Arkansas State in which the Red Wolves created more than twice as many scoring opportunities.

Unlikely or not, their eight wins was their most since Kaepernick. I would say recruits noticed, but they were already buying what Norvell was selling. Per the 247Sports Composite, he signed the No. 3 class in the Mountain West following the 3-9 debut, then the No. 5 class in 2019 (No. 4 if you go by each prospect’s average ranking). These were their two best classes since 2014.

With a new quarterback, a rebuilt secondary, and a schedule that features five projected top-60 opponents, odds are good that Nevada solidifies its gains — making a bowl again at 6-6 or 7-5, signing another awesome class, then igniting in 2020. But there’s potential for more.

It’s been a while since I could say that.

Related The 2018 advanced college football stats glossary

Offense

Want to make an old blogger happy? Hire a Mumme.

One of the first moves Norvell made was to hire Matt Mumme, son of Hal and former LaGrange head coach, as his offensive coordinator. After his Wolf Pack offense showed improvement late in 2017, it appeared to turn a corner last fall. They ranked as high as 44th in Off. S&P+ and were still at 62nd before a late-year fade — they scored under 30 points against bad SJSU and UNLV offenses, then needed overtime to eke out 16 in the bowl.

By the end, the offense faded back to 83rd. But the promise was encouraging, considering this was a really young unit. Freshman Toa Taua was the starting running back, and of the top four receivers, only one had caught more than four passes the year before. The line featured a freshman and three sophomores in the rotation.

I’d predict a major breakthrough in 2019 if the quarterback were also returning, but Ty Gangi ran out of eligibility after throwing for 3,331 yards. The job will be senior Cristian Solano’s if he can fend off a crowd.

The previous time Solano was a starting quarterback at any level was at high school in 2013, Polian’s first year at Nevada. He started for an injured Gangi against Fresno State, and it went predictably bad (Fresno’s defense was really, really good last year). Still, his mobility and seniority made him the favorite heading into the spring.

Norvell’s going to make it competitive, though. He’s signed two three-star freshmen in the last two years (Carson Strong in 2018, Austin Kirksey in 2019), and he also inked Florida State-via-Last Chance U quarterback Malik Henry in this class.

Henry’s JUCO head coach said, ‘He’s most talented quarterback I’ve ever had, but i just think he’s damaged goods,” about him last year. You don’t want to count on him experiencing a lasting breakthrough, but he’s still got time to figure things out.

If Solano, Henry, or one of the other QBs can play at a certain level, the offense’s potential is quite high.

Taua had some huge moments (170 yards against Toledo, 126 against Hawaii) before hitting a wall like the rest of the offense, and another sophomore, Devonte Lee, had an off-the-charts 58 percent success rate (albeit with no explosiveness). Three starters depart on the line, but five others return with starting experience, including two-year left tackle Jake Nelson, the key to a pass protection unit that ranked 10th in sack rate. (Leaks in run blocking were a bit of an issue.)

The receiving corps returns almost everyone, too. The only loss is big — McLane Mannix, an extraordinary slot who transferred for family reasons — but there’s still a lot.

For starters, slot man, and former Washington State Cougar Kaleb Fossum is one of the most efficient possession receivers in the country. Among players targeted at least 90 times last year, he was 10th in marginal efficiency. Basically everybody ahead of him was either a 2019 NFL draft prospect (Oklahoma’s Hollywood Brown, NC State’s Kelvin Harmon, Texas’ Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Stanford’s JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Ohio State’s Parris Campbell, Baylor’s Jalen Hurd) or won the Biletnikoff Award (Jerry Jeudy).

It doesn’t stop with Fossum. Sophomore Romeo Doubs caught fire late (last three regular season games: 17 catches, 297 yards), and both junior Elijah Cooks and senior Brendan O’Leary-Orange are all-or-nothing threats who have time to find more consistency. Plus, two of Norvell’s most touted 2019 signees — receiver Jamaal Bell and tight end Henry Ikahihifo — could play roles sooner than later. This could be one of the best receiving corps in the Group of Five, if it has a QB.

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Defense

As it turned out, Jeff Casteel still had some tricks up his sleeve. A longtime coordinator for Rich Rodriguez, Casteel and his tricky 3-3-5 defense were jettisoned from Arizona after a couple of bad years. (Things got even worse for the Wildcats after his ouster.)

After a rocky transition in 2017, we got a sustained look at what Casteel could accomplish with the right pieces. Linebacker/edge rusher Malik Reed exploded for 15.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks, and the safety trio of Asauni Rufus, Dameon Baber, and Nephi Sewell combined for 13 TFLs, five interceptions, and five pass breakups. Tackle Korey Rush provided a jolt up front, too, with 12.5 TFLs and six sacks, and Nevada surged from 127th to 63rd in Def. S&P+. They were decent against the pass and great near the line of scrimmage, and they teed off when you were leveraged into blitz downs.

That was the good news. The bad news: everybody in the above paragraph (Casteel aside) is gone. Nevada ranks 98th in returning defensive production and is projected to fall back to 84th in Def. S&P+.

Mind you, there are still exciting pieces returning. Daniel Brown is one of the best DBs in the MWC, and fellow CB EJ Muhammad started the first two games of 2018 before a season-ending injury. End Dom Peterson recorded 10.5 TFLs as a freshman, senior LBs Lucas Weber and Maliek Broady have solid blitz potential, and Gabriel Sewell is excellent in run support.

If Nevada overachieves its defensive projection this fall, though, it’ll probably be due to some recent star recruits.

Sophomore safety Tyson Williams was a mid-three-star and is, by default, the most experienced safety after recording 18 tackles last year.

Three-star sophomores Lamin Touray (LB) and Kaymen Cureton (DB) could assuage some worries by living up to their recruiting hype.

Norvell and Casteel redshirted a few of the brightest lights from the 2018 class, including mid-three-star linebacker Josiah Bradley and mid-three DB Teyjohn Herrington.

Understanding needs, Norvell signed six freshman DBs, along with two three-star ends and two three-star linebackers. There are roles for anybody who figures things out quickly in fall camp, especially in the secondary.

Perhaps it’s encouraging that, while Norvell signed a lot of DBs, he didn’t panic and load up on JUCOs. Maybe that’s a sign of confidence in the returning personnel — Brown, Muhammad, Williams, juniors Berdale Robins, Mar’Quette Jackson, and Austin Arnold, converted quarterback Kaymen Cureton (who had P5 offers to play defense), etc. — but depth could be a major issue, and with any run of injuries, recent recruits might get thrown into the deep end.

Special Teams

The defense wasn’t the only unit that took a leap forward: Nevada improved from 97th to 66th in Special Teams S&P+. The Wolf Pack had one of the nation’s best kick coverage units, and punter Quinton Conaway was strong, too. Returns were nonexistent except for a single Romeo Doubs punt return, but this was a decent unit.

Conaway’s back, but kicker Ramiz Ahmed is not. We’ll see if that means a step backward, though if Doubs emerges as a steady return man, that’ll be a plus.

2019 outlook

Life in the improving MWC West is a lot trickier than it was a couple of years ago, but Nevada’s schedule is a strange mix of high floor and low ceiling.

On one hand, a cushy home slate should give Nevada margin for error when it comes to reaching a bowl. Five of six home opponents are projected 94th or worse in S&P+, plus one of the road games is against worst-in-FBS UTEP. Despite only a No. 83 overall projection, the Pack have at least 82 percent win probability in four games.

On the other hand, trips to Oregon, Utah State, Fresno State, and SDSU could put a hard cap on the win total. The Pack have a win probability of 29 percent or lower in four games.

Really, there are only a few potential tossups here. A home upset of Purdue in Week 1 could trigger a run at nine wins or so, but this will probably be a six- to seven-win year, maybe eight with some breaks.

With the foundation Norvell appears to be building, that’s fine. Solidify gains, sign another excellent class, and keep building a potential West Division powerhouse.

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