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The association, which represents the Canadian drilling and service rig industry, said there will be an average of 167 fewer rigs active in 2015 compared with 2014, resulting in 22,579 fewer jobs.

During the recession of 2008-2009, job losses in the drilling sector totaled 19,440, based on 144 fewer rigs in 2009 and using an industry estimate that each active drilling rig supports 135 jobs.

“The new reality of $55 oil means that the entire industry will hurt for a period, and drillers and service rig contractors are not immune to that,” CAODC president Mark Scholz said in a statement. The association’s latest forecast is based on the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil trading at US$55 a barrel.

In the association’s previous activity forecast, released in November, WTI was trading above US$70 per barrel. That forecast predicted there would be 10,354 wells drilled this year compared, 566 less than the 10,920 wells drilled in 2014.

However, with WTI now at less than US$48 per barrel, more than half what it was in June, the CAODC is now predicting that 6,612 wells will be drilled this year, a 43% drop from last year.

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A number of major international drilling companies, including Halliburton Co., Schlumberger Ltd. and Baker Hughes Inc., have already announced thousands of job cuts, but the Canadian drilling association’s numbers are the first indication of how many people in this oilfield subsector may be out of work following the oil price collapse.