If the title isn’t obvious, this article is going to be about Khris Davis. Davis has been one of the league’s best sluggers for the last three years, hitting at least 42 homers in each season, and topping out at a league leading 48 last year. He’s on the same path this season, already khrushing (pardon the pun, one last time) 5 homeruns in his first eight games. Now, many of you are probably thinking, “Yes, he is consistent, but who cares? Plenty of people have had three 40 homerun seasons in a row.” And you know what? You’re right. Davis’s power, while consistently well above average, is nothing to gawk at, and certainly not something that needs to be studied any further. That’s not what we are here to talk about though.



The Number

.247. Does that number mean anything to anybody? No? Well, it evidently means something important to Davis, who has astoundingly hit for a .247 average for not two, not three, but FOUR years in a row. That’s right, over the last four years, Khris Davis has hit exactly 24.7% of his at bats for base hits. This is mind boggling. In a sport that values consistency almost as much as anything else, and in a sport where consistency is ridiculously hard to come by, Khris Davis has found the key.

Before we jump into just how rare this is, we should first take a look at the stat that is batting average. The batting average for all players in MLB history is between .260 and .275, depending on how many AB’s is used as the minimum cut-off for player eligibility. In 2018, that average was .248.



Historically Consistent

I did some digging, and if you include Davis’ season five years ago, in which he hit for a maddingly low average of .244, he has a total deviation from .247 by 0.03. Even if you include movement to mean any change from one year to the next, regardless of starting point, there is only one other player within 0.10. That player is Nori Aoki, who did so from 2012-2016. Also, from what I can tell, there is only one other batter in MLB history to have a three year stretch of the same batting average, Mookie Wilson, who played for the Mets in the 80’s.



I was intrigued, so I tried to do some digging to see if there was a reason that could explain away some of the consistency. Some change, some inside edge, anything that might help Davis accomplish this. There isn’t one. The MLB isn’t becoming more consistent by any reason, and it could be argued it is becoming less consistent. The batting average for all players in MLB history is between .260 and .275, depending on how many AB’s is used as the minimum cut-off for player eligibility. In 2018, that average was .248. Mookie Betts led the league hitting .346 (+.098) and Chris Davis (different player) hit for an MLB HISTORY worst .168 (-.080). The deviation from first to last is further than any MLB season in history. According to FanGraphs, Bryce Harper is currently experiencing one of the least consistent five year stretch in the history of recorded batting averages. His total movement in average over the last five years equals .325. If you subtracted Khris Davis’ total from Harper’s, you would have a fantastic batting average of .322.



All of this shows Khris Davis’ current production at the plate is unprecedented. Davis is set to become a free agent after the 2019 season, and even though he has expressed his desire to stay with the Athletics, he will likely still explore his options. Due to his uncanny ability to hit for nearly the same numbers year in and year out, Davis carries the unique bargaining chip that comes with the ability to tell a prospective team what to expect from you. A team that is going to sign Davis knows: he won’t play in the field much, will likely hit for more than 40 home runs, and is going to hit around .250 (probably .247). He knows exactly what he is worth to a team, and that will help him get the money he deserves. Now, you can’t place bets on the final average Khris Davis will finish with this season, but if you could, I think you would place a bet for around .247. I’m confident that bet would Khrush, just like Khrush himself.



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