With just six months until the Iowa caucus and a field of over twenty Democratic candidates seeking the nomination for president, each debate presents a unique opportunity for candidates to have their breakout moment, such as Kamala Harris’ poll boosting performance in June. The July debates are held in a similar fashion as the June debates, with ten candidates debating on Tuesday, July 30th, and ten the following night on Wednesday the 31st.

For the next debates held in September and October, candidates will need to qualify via four polls at 2% AND with 130,000 unique donors. Most of the candidates in the field have not yet hit 2% and some haven’t even hit 65,000 donors. As of July 31, only seven candidates have qualified: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. What this means is that every other candidate is hoping for a star performance at these July debates, otherwise their campaign may be over.

Wednesday night’s debate featured frontrunners Vice President Joe Biden (DE) and Senator Kamala Harris (CA) center stage, followed by Senator Cory Booker (NJ) and entrepreneur Andrew Yang (NY) on either side of them. Senators Michael Bennet (CO) and Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), Mayor Bill de Blasio (NY), Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (HI), Secretary Julián Castro, and Governor Jay Inslee (WA) joined them tonight to fill out the debate stage.

Pre-debate Context

While Tuesday night’s debate was very clearly a battle between the progressive agenda of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren against the moderate wing of the Democratic Party, tonight’s debate won’t be as clear cut. The two candidates at the center of last month’s debate highlight, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, are sharing the stage once again, this time in the central spotlight. Harris attacked Biden’s record last time, and has since shot up in the polls at his expense. However, Biden’s campaign has signaled that they are prepared to hit back this time. Biden had a particularly abysmal debate performance and a repeat of last month could bring him to a far more vulnerable position in the polls. Tonight will be a test for Joe Biden. His performance will depend highly on his defense against the criticisms that other candidates will undeniably be throwing his way.

Though Cory Booker has qualified for the next two debates and he had a good showing last month, he wasn’t the star of the show and thus has suffered in the polls. Similarly, Andrew Yang is one poll short of qualifying for the fall and needs a much stronger showing than his disappointing three minutes of speaking time he had last month. Castro isn’t far off, as he has over 130,000 donors, but has otherwise been unable to capitalize off his strong showing in June in polling.

The rest of the stage will be fighting for their campaign’s very survival, as anything less of a breakout moment will mean they might not qualify for the fall debates. Bennet, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Inslee have largely been struggling to hit 1% in most polls, let alone the four polls at 2% they need to secure future debate podia.

Spotlight moments

“Go easy on me, kid.”

Joe Biden to Kamala Harris before the debate, alluding to Harris’ attacks on Biden last month.

“Now Kamala Harris just talked about Kathleen Sebelius, who helped write her bill. This just pointed to the fatal flaw in her proposal. Sebelius works for Medicare Advantage, a private insurance company, who still stands to profit under her plan.”

Tulsi Gabbard on Kamala Harris’ healthcare proposal. Harris responded that Sebelius, a prominent architect of the ACA, wasn’t an author of her plan, but merely endorsed it.

“This idea is a bunch of malarkey… I don’t know what math you do in New York. I don’t know what math you do in California. But I tell ya, that’s a lot of money.”

Joe Biden criticizing Bill de Blasio and Kamala Harris on the high costs, upwards of $30 trillion, of their respective healthcare policies.

“Mr. Vice President, you can’t have it both ways. You invoke President Obama more than anybody in this campaign. You can’t do it when it’s convenient and then dodge it when it’s not.”

Cory Booker piggybacking off Bill de Blasio’s attack on Joe Biden’s complicity of the Obama administration’s deportation policy.

“One of us has learned the lessons of the past and one hasn’t. We need politicians who actually have guts on this issue.”

Julián Castro says about Joe Biden in reference to immigration reform. Biden responds that “I do have guts.”

“Well, that’s playing into what the Republicans want: to pit some immigrants against other immigrants, some are from ‘shithole’ countries and some are from worthy countries.”

Cory Booker responds to Joe Biden’s comments to offer immigrants with PhDs green cards before other immigrants.

“If you want to compare records, and I’m shocked that you do, I’m happy to do that… You’re dipping into the Kool-Aid and you don’t even know the flavor.”

Cory Booker’s response to Joe Biden after he asks about the policies Booker had as mayor. Booker went on to criticize Biden for being the one who created the problems he was trying to repair.

“We need a conversation about what’s happening now, and when there’s a group of kids in this country that don’t get preschool through no fault of their own and another group does: equal is not equal. We’ve got a group of K–12 schools that are good because families can spend a million bucks, and you got the Detroit public schools that are as segregated as they were then: equal is not equal.”

Michael Bennet on education as Harris and Biden clash once more on bussing. Bennet is a former superintendent of Denver Public Schools.

Tulsi takes down Kamala Harris over her record on criminal justice reform, the death penalty, and the war on drugs -TULSI2020 #DemDebate #Tulsi2020 https://t.co/7XQoiqHThu pic.twitter.com/epf58iQNYI — Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) August 1, 2019

“When you were in a position to impact these people’s lives you did not and worse yet in the case of those on death row, innocent people, you actually blocked evidence that would have freed them, until you were forced to do that, and the people who suffered under your reign as prosecutor, you owe them an apology.”

Tulsi Gabbard on Kamala Harris’ record as Attorney General of California. Harris defended herself by saying she had to make “very hard decisions.”

“We’re up here with makeup on our faces and our rehearsed attack lines, playing roles in this reality TV show. It’s one reason why we elected a reality TV star as our president.”

Andrew Yang’s closing statement, calling out the reality show nature of these debates.

Winners

Cory Booker

Cory Booker went into this debate on the offense, and it paid off. His night started with calls to fellow Democrats on stage with him not to pettily argue with one another on the details of positions because that is what the Republicans want. His focus soon shifted as he lasered in on frontrunner Joe Biden’s past policies and positions that he took as a senator and vice president. Booker hit Biden on everything from his time in the Obama administration to criminal justice to immigration. If Biden left the door even a little bit open, Booker was there to slam it in his face. He had done his homework and was unapologetic in his strong stances against Biden. Booker was not there to just outline his agenda as President but was adamant in undermining Biden’s.

Tulsi Gabbard

While Booker focused on Biden, Tulsi took on the other frontrunner, Kamala Harris, and rightfully won the title of “Most Googled Candidate” of the night. Her attacks focused on Harris’ time as California’s attorney general through not only the disproportionate racial convictions, but also her blatant withholding of evidence that could have freed innocent people. Gabbard’s stand against Harris was nicely complemented by Gabbard’s detailed policy stances, most notably her plan to bring back the troops within one year of the presidency, a position especially tailored to her as an Iraq War veteran. And her dynamic performance has definitely called attention to her own campaign and to the holes in Kamala Harris’ promises.

Honorable Mentions

Michael Bennet

Michael Bennet channeled the reasonable centrist energy that John Delaney tried to channel last night, but far more successfully. He never faltered, responded to challenges reasonably and smartly. His experience as a school district superintendent was useful as he took over the debate on educational disparities, hammering home the mantra that “equal is not equal.” This display of passion was reminiscent of his decrying of Ted Cruz’s “crocodile tears” in the Senate that led to calls for his presidential candidacy. If Bennet keeps up like this, and especially if Biden continues to fall, he’s certainly made his case as a strong, perhaps the strongest, moderate candidate in the race.

Kirsten Gillibrand

Gillibrand seemed to have a stronger performance in this debate than the one in June, which had involved multiple interjections and speaking over other candidates. This debate allowed her to express her sentiments that immigrants should be treated humanely and illegal immigration should focus as civil rather than criminal. She took a slightly uncomfortable moment to acknowledge her privilege, but emphatically vowed to focus on racial disparity and use her privilege positively. Her most notable moment, however, was her unwavering stance against Officer Pantaleo and her criticism of Mayor De Blasio.

Julián Castro

The former HUD Secretary had a remarkably strong performance in June, and he didn’t disappoint again tonight. He certainly had highlights, but was once again overshadowed by even stronger performances by other candidates, in this case, Booker and Gabbard. Castro hit Biden hard, challenging his outdated policies, all the while taking the lead on immigration reform and criminal justice. He also brought out his credentials discussing how as HUD Secretary he was the one who first addressed the Flint water crisis. Castro has already hit the donor requirement for the next debates, and hopefully, tonight’s strong showing will give him enough of a bounce in the polls to show up in September.

Jay Inslee

Inslee has staked his claim as the climate candidate, which many questioned since he started his campaign given his strong progressive record during his tenure as Governor, including the largest public healthcare expansion in the nation. However, tonight he came out in full force, citing his record on nearly every issue, all the while framing it all in the grand picture of an intersectional battle against climate change. Inslee successfully portrayed himself as a strong candidate with a convincing record, a powerful vision, and capable of taking on Republican politicians. With his Anderson Cooper glasses on, Inslee looked and sounded like a policy geek, but that may not have been a bad thing for him tonight.

Losers

Joe Biden

Joe Biden had a better showing tonight than in June, though his last performance set his bar low. The Vice President did some opposition research of his own this time, hitting Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, albeit the latter backfired on him when Booker took control of the stage. Biden came with more fire tonight and stronger policy (especially on healthcare), but still sounded aloof and uncertain from time to time. Biden’s signature strategy of being Obama’s best pal backfired on him, as de Blasio and Booker used the failures of the Obama administration against him. Biden faced challenges from all sides and often lacked a proper response. For that, he came out of tonight weaker than when he went in, and his polling may soon reflect that.

Kamala Harris

Everyone watching tonight expected to see the rematch: Kamala Harris versus Joe Biden. That didn’t happen. Booker took the lead as the main Biden adversary, and when Harris tried to relive the bussing argument, Bennet stole the spotlight with a rousing speech on modern inequality which drove the conversation towards present injustices. However, the worst was yet to come for the June debate champion. Harris quickly found herself on the defense about her newly released, middle-ground healthcare plan. After that, Gabbard attacked Harris’ tenure as Attorney General. Harris’ best efforts to defend her record fell short as Gabbard dismantled any credibility Harris once had on criminal justice. Coupled with Harris’ poll numbers dropping recently, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her fall out of the upper tier of the primary.

Everyone else

Andrew Yang

Yang got better as the night went on, concluding with one of the most memorable closing statements. He honed in on the causes of many issues such as gender disparity and unemployment being financial insecurity, offering his vision of a universal basic income as the antidote to these issues. However, he once again had the least speaking time of any candidate on stage, just short of nine minutes (compared to Joe Biden’s 21 minutes). His earlier statements felt like roundabout answers to bring up universal income, one of which involved the depressingly pessimistic thought that climate change can not be reversed. While he certainly has made an impression on some voters tonight, his performance wasn’t terribly strong. In the end, he’s nearly guaranteed to qualify for the next two debates, so nothing gained, nothing lost.

Bill de Blasio

Bill de Blasio relentlessly went after Joe Biden tonight, but it felt forced and lackluster. De Blasio very much occupied the same space he did last debate, where he trampled over any sign of weakness. He raised some strong points and defended the progressive agenda, and challenged Biden multiple times, sometimes successful and sometimes not. However, his own record went under fire as well, as protesters chanted “Fire Pantaleo” and “I can’t breathe,” referring to the NYPD police officer who killed Eric Garner in 2014 and who de Blasio says he does not have the authority to fire. While he wasn’t hit too hard tonight, his performance is unlikely to boost his polling numbers, nor his donor count.

Conclusion

While Tuesday night’s debate was an ideological battle over the future of the Democratic Party, Wednesday night saw more personal clashes as candidates targeted each others’ records with no mercy. Overall, there were many more moments from the candidates as the sparks flew. We expected Kamala Harris to bring the same intensity as last month, but surprisingly it was Cory Booker who had the strongest statements of the night.

Overall it felt like the ten candidates on stage were far stronger as a field than the ten that preceded them on Tuesday; all of them had stand out moments and most had quite a few. That being said, Cory Booker and Tulsi Gabbard stand to benefit the most from their performances tonight, while Kamala Harris can expect to lose some of the headway she’s made in the past month. Joe Biden will still stand as the frontrunner, albeit a significantly weaker one as his fellow candidates continue chipping at the former Vice President’s record.

If they can build on their momentum tonight and (maybe more importantly) if they’re lucky, Bennet, Castro, Gillibrand, and Inslee could see enough of a rise in the polls and convince enough new donors to qualify for the next debates in September. That being said, there’s still work to be done. Yang, despite a lackluster performance for the most part, still is likely to qualify and has more time to convince Americans of his pitch for universal basic income.

Finally, as bad as it feels, it might be time to say goodbye to the six-foot-five progressive steamroller that is Bill de Blasio. Where next for him, who’s to say. After all, most of New York seems to be glad that he’s finally gone.

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Nathan Zou A professional woolgatherer and political junkie, Nathan is a Chinese-American expat studying philosophy and mathematics at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. He enjoys chai lattes, cooking, and a well-written short story. You can follow his work at nathanzou.com. Shruti Wadhwa Described by a friend as the girl who “ knocks wisdom into people by bludgeoning them with her unreasonably large iPad, dispenses woke wisdom and advocates for social justice, and is somehow very premed but still a highly tolerable person.” it is no surprise the Shruti Wadhwa enjoys politics as a hobby. Shruti is a Cognitive Science, pre-med student at Rice University who enjoys hiking, listening to podcasts, and spending endless hours on Youtube, all while drinking a nice hot cup of espresso.

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