A lot of people don't understand why we did a mock draft right after the season ended. The word they used to describe it was "useless."

Those are the people I want in my Fantasy leagues.

It's obvious that there is no perfect mock draft, and that goes triple in February. But the word I'd use to describe any mock draft done between now and post-NFL Draft is "inconclusive." The word I'd use to describe any mock draft done between now and the week before the end of the preseason is "incomplete."

And the word I'd use to describe any mock draft done during the offseason is "helpful." That's because players will move up and down draft boards and rank lists and rookies will be added to the talent pool, but trends and other important factors to keep in mind when you enter your own personal Draft Room are born now. And they don't die.

Let's prove the point. Here are some notes we gleaned from our mock drafts from Feb. 2010 and Aug. 2010:

• Of the 180 players drafted in February, 91 moved up or down at least 12 spots (one round) in August.

• Of those 91 players who moved up or down at least 12 spots in February, 30 were undrafted in August. It should be said here that nine rookies were taken in August, so they were responsible for about a third of the early-drafted players getting the boot.

• Of the remaining 61 players who moved up or down at least 12 spots in February, 21 moved up -- gained value -- come August. That means two-thirds of those players who had significant movement -- 40 total -- lost value.

• Here's where you need to pay attention: Of the players drafted in the first seven rounds (84 players) of February's draft, 18 moved down at least 12 spots, four moved up at least 12 spots and none went undrafted come August. By comparison, of the last 36 players drafted in February, 20 weren't picked again in August and only two made a leap.

What does this mean? For starters, owners could conceivably begin making judgments on the elite players available on Draft Day -- those top players who go in the first seven rounds or so. Established, talented players don't see their value change much during the offseason as those lesser-known guys. Thus, owners should also reserve making judgments on players who will be selected in the back half of drafts, especially since the players (and DSTs) taken late often have fluctuating and/or minimal value.

But taking note of those elite players isn't enough -- taking note of draft patterns being developed in mocks now will also go a long way. And because those first seven rounds aren't expected to morph into a different look than what we saw in our recent mock draft, now is as good a time as any to start breaking things down.

Quarterback and tight end surplus

The smaller your league is, the less pressure you'll have to draft a quarterback and a tight end in 2011 (assuming you start only one of each). That said, there's still an obvious drop off from the elite players at each position and the guys rounding out the Top 10 or 12, but it's not as bad of a fall as you might think.

At quarterback you might find that passing on Michael Vick or Aaron Rodgers with a Top 15 pick would pay off when you swipe Tony Romo or Matt Schaub between 25th and 40th overall. Or you might decide that the better bargain is to wait for Ben Roethlisberger or Joe Flacco between 75th and 85th overall. Same thing at tight end: Antonio Gates is a mortal lock to go in Round 4 in all leagues with the likes of Dallas Clark, Jason Witten and Vernon Davis sure to follow within the next 12 picks. You could splurge on one of them or wait until the later rounds for a starter like Kellen Winslow.

We felt last season that it wasn't a bad plan to wait on quarterbacks, but we can't remember the last time the tight end crop was this deep. Thanks to promising 2010 rookies Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez along with breakout stars Marcedes Lewis and Jermichael Finley, owners might find the getting good at tight end later rather than sooner, especially if established players like Winslow, Chris Cooley and potentially Tony Gonzalez are among those available as drafts move on.

Running back and wide receiver deficit

It's not like the NFL is running out of rushers and receivers, but players at those positions with perceived reliability will fly off of draft boards. The safer we think they are, the more valuable we think they become. The suspicion is that several owners in every league will load up on rushers and receivers and then opt to pick up quarterbacks and tight ends later on. It's not a bad strategy to employ in 2011.

It's a given every year that running backs will fly off the board first, but this year there seems to be more confidence in the rushers available than the receivers. Even with potential one-year wonders like Arian Foster, Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis highlighting the running backs taken within the first two rounds of our mock draft, the consensus is that running backs are safer than receivers. Rushers typically score more points and have more upside. Last year, many owners were disappointed in the production of elite wideouts like Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall (not to mention Randy Moss). The allure of taking a receiver early isn't quite as strong in 2011 because guys like Brandon Lloyd and Steve Johnson popped out of the woodwork.

In fact, the receiver run started later than it did last season -- Round 3 instead of Round 2. More quarterbacks (four) were taken in Round 2 than wideouts (three) -- a trend that we will keep an eye on over the next several months. It's a sign that owners want to play it safe with their first few selections.

Examples of some draft strategies

No. 1 overall (Jamey Eisenberg)

Projected starting lineup:

QB: Tom Brady (Round 2)

RB: Arian Foster (Round 1)

RB: LeGarrette Blount (Round 3)

WR: Wes Welker (Round 4)

WR: Vincent Jackson (Round 5)

FLEX: Steve Johnson (Round 7)

TE: Jimmy Graham (Round 6)

Analysis: Picking first, Jamey obviously went running back early. His rushers and receivers are nothing to sneeze at. Save for reaching a bit for Graham (I know he loves his upside in the Saints offense), this isn't a team Fantasy owners would be disappointed in having. Jamey gave up a shot at an elite receiver in exchange for having Brady and Blount, and the end result of carrying Welker and Jackson made that choice pay off.

No. 5 overall (Michael Hurcomb)

Projected starting lineup:

QB: Michael Vick (Round 1)

RB: Knowshon Moreno (Round 2)

RB: Ryan Mathews (Round 3)

WR: Mike Williams (TB) (Round 4)

WR: Mario Manningham (Round 6)

FLEX: Fred Jackson (Round 7)

TE: Jason Witten (Round 5)

Analysis: Michael went with Vick at No. 5 overall, and it kind of forced him to play catch up. There's a lot of upside with his running backs of course, but also injury concerns plague both guys. Mike Williams in Round 4 was a terrific pick, but he passed up Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Maclin and Brandon Lloyd for Witten in Round 5. You can't help but think the Manningham pick was a reach, and it could cost him, especially since his third receiver is Malcom Floyd. But to Michael's credit, the selection of Eli Manning (Round 9) was shrewd considering Vick's chances of playing 16 games.

No. 6 overall (Dave Richard)

Projected starting lineup:

QB: Drew Brees (Round 2)

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew (Round 1)

RB: Jonathan Stewart (Round 5)

WR: Greg Jennings (Round 3)

WR: Brandon Marshall (Round 4)

FLEX: Felix Jones (Round 6)

TE: Kellen Winslow (Round 12)

Analysis: My draft was saved with the Stewart pick in Round 5 -- without it, I would have been scrambling for a capable running back to fill that No. 2 slot, though Cedric Benson could have just as easily been on my roster. But I made the conscious decision to fill my receiver needs early so I wasn't stuck picking through less-appealing options later on. Waiting for a tight end definitely paid off -- I took Kellen Winslow with my fourth-to-last pick. As for Brees in Round 2, I correctly assumed that two good quarterbacks would get taken before I picked again in Round 3. It turned out three were taken, so locking in Brees turned out to be smart. Plus, with Brees you don't have to worry about a backup option (when would I ever bench Brees?), so it freed up another roster spot.

No. 9 overall (Ed Gauna)

Projected starting lineup:

QB: Aaron Rodgers (Round 1)

RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Round 3)

RB: DeAngelo Williams (Round 4)

WR: Roddy White (Round 2)

WR: Jeremy Maclin (Round 5)

FLEX: Ryan Torain (Round 6)

TE: Brent Celek (Round 9)

Analysis: This is a look at an owner who took a quarterback with a late first-round pick and a stud receiver with an early second-round pick, and the only person in our draft who waited until Round 3 for a running back. Did it pay off? While it's more than likely that Green-Ellis will continue to produce in the New England backfield, the Williams pick is very much high-risk, high-reward. If Williams lands in a job where he'll get 15-plus touches per week, then it's a steal. If he ends up sharing the ball, then it's a bust. Williams is one of those players whose value will fluctuate between now and training camp; expect him to be on the move on draft boards. Otherwise, Ed did a nice job despite waiting on a running back, though I wonder why he went for Celek in Round 9.

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