Decision to compete in the red state, where a victory would effectively deny Trump a path to the presidency, is based on polling and early voter numbers

This article is more than 3 years old

This article is more than 3 years old

In the frenetic dash to election day, Hillary Clinton will swing through the usual key target states for any Democratic candidate: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina – and Arizona?

On Wednesday, Clinton will visit the Grand Canyon State for the first time since winning the Democratic nomination, a move that signals the campaign’s increasing confidence in her chances of turning a traditionally red state blue.

“This is very rare,” said Richard Herrera, an associate professor in the school of politics and global studies at Arizona State University, of a visit from a Democratic presidential nominee. Democrats have carried the state only once since Harry Truman was in office: Bill Clinton in 1996.



If the Clinton campaign is this confident to make a play for Arizona, she is serious about her chances of winning here Richard Herrera

“If the Clinton campaign is this confident that it makes sense to make a play for Arizona, she is serious about her chances of winning here,” Herrera said.

The Democrat’s hope of a victory in Arizona largely rests with the state’s rapidly growing Hispanic population, a group Trump repeatedly has antagonized throughout his nativist campaign. As many as one in five eligible voters in Arizona are Hispanic, but turnout rates have lagged behind those of other groups.

“It’s tight,” a senior Clinton campaign aide said on Tuesday of the race in Arizona. “We think it’s about even right now.”



A number of polls in the past few months have shown Clinton slightly ahead or within striking distance of Trump in the Grand Canyon State. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump ahead by about one percentage point.

At campaign rallies in Las Vegas and Phoenix on Wednesday, Clinton is expected to appeal directly to Latino voters in an effort to harness the backlash against Trump into a surge of support for her campaign.

The Democratic nominee will rail against Trump’s policy on immigration and offer her candidacy as a riposte to the divisive campaign he has run in a speech that highlights the disparaging comments he has made about immigrants, Mexicans and a federal judge of Mexican heritage, according to a campaign aide.



In Phoenix, she will be introduced by the parents of Damian Lopez Rodriguez, an Arizona native who was killed by a roadside bomb in Iraq, the aide said. The parents appeared in a Spanish-language ad for Clinton.

Clinton’s visit is a continuation of the campaign’s vigorous push in the state. Early last month, the campaign announced that it had ramped up its efforts in the state, investing another $2m to be spent on TV and digital advertising as well as voter registration efforts.

Ahead of her south-western swing, the campaign released on Wednesday a pair of Spanish- and English-language TV and radio ads aimed at mobilizing the Latino community against Trump. The ads are titled “27 million strong”, a reference to the estimated number of eligible Latino voters.

Arizona asks 'the unprecedented': could Democrats sweep the west? Read more

On Thursday, Clinton’s running mate Tim Kaine will deliver a speech entirely in Spanish at a community center in Phoenix and will hold a rally at a high school in Tucson, a rare blue bastion in the state.

Last week, the campaign deployed top surrogates to rally troops in the state, including Senator Bernie Sanders, Chelsea Clinton and first lady Michelle Obama.



Before Obama took the stage in Tempe, the crowd heard from congressman Ruben Gallego, a Democrat. “We are officially a swing state!” he boomed into the microphone, drawing loud applause from the more than 6,000 people who turned out to see the first lady speak.

The decision to compete in Arizona is based on assessment of factors, including internal polling and early voter numbers. Campaign manager Robby Mook said that based on early analytics showed a higher than anticipated turnout there among minority groups, young people, women and independents.

Campaign aides have repeatedly said that they believe Arizona is a true battleground state – and not a potential cherry atop a pleasing electoral map. Still, stealing the red state would all but deny Trump a path to an electoral college victory.

“Arizona ain’t an indulgence,” campaign spokesman Brian Fallon said on Twitter last week. “It’s a true battleground. Perhaps even more favorable-looking right now than some other places we’ve been on TV.”



Clinton’s visit to Arizona less than a week before voters go to the polls was made before the announcement that the FBI was reviewing emails related to her private server while she was secretary of state, and perhaps reflects a confidence that has been somewhat dented since then.

Trump has visited Arizona seven times, including once to give a major speech on immigration in which he doubled down on his improbable but central campaign plank: build a border wall that is paid for by Mexico.

Arizona ain’t an indulgence. It’s a true battleground Brian Fallon, Clinton campaign spokesman

He also touts endorsements from two of the state’s most stalwart conservatives: former Arizona governor Jan Brewer, known for ushering through a hardline immigration law that inspired a rash of copycat legislation, and Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio, who has been charged with contempt of court for disobeying a judge’s order in a racial profiling case.

Trump, who faces a difficult path, has embraced new polling that shows the race tightening as reason to spend his finally days campaigning in traditionally Democratic states like Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

Herrera expects Clinton’s visit to the desert will energize Democrats across the state and may help boost Latino voter registration.

A Clinton victory in the historically red state could prove to be the start of a long-anticipated political shift – or it could be one-off twist in a wild election year.

“That’s the big question,” Herrera said. “And the answer is, we just have to wait and see.”