Colorado State Rams Head coach: Mike Bobo (21-18) 2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-6 (45th) Projected 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 6-6 (95th) Five key points: Bobo has taken CSU to three straight bowls, and the Rams have been to five straight overall. But they’ve left quite a few wins on the table, too. The expected 2017 breakthrough didn’t come to fruition, in part because of a late-season defensive collapse. New coordinator John Jancek will be tasked with addressing that. Jancek inherits personnel that, frankly, seems more suited to his 4-3 than his predecessor’s 3-4. Defensive improvement could offset offensive regression. Indeed, the offense will regress. Can a grad-transfer QB and a bunch of exciting sophomores make up for the loss of eight starters? The schedule features enough cakey games to give the Rams a good shot at a sixth straight bowl. That’s the goal for this lowered-bar season.

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I was high on Colorado State last year. Really high. “Highest-ranked Group of 5 team” high. The 2016 Rams had demonstrated as high a ceiling as any mid-major, playing at a 90th-percentile level three times, and had been held back by bad bounces. With their star quarterback, star receiver, two solid running backs, and most of the defensive two-deep returning, I thought 2017 could be the breakthrough.

I was right for about a month. After losses to Colorado (which we didn’t realize was a pretty bad loss, until later in the year) and Alabama, CSU began MWC play 4-0. The Rams looked excellent in road wins over Hawaii and Utah State, then survived shakier moments in beating Nevada and New Mexico. Things were going according to plan.

First 4 games (2-2) : Avg. score: CSU 31, Opp 24 | Avg. yards per play: CSU 6.0, Opp 5.9 | Avg. percentile performance: 53% (55% offense, 55% defense) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-3.2 PPG

: Avg. score: CSU 31, Opp 24 | Avg. yards per play: CSU 6.0, Opp 5.9 | Avg. percentile performance: 53% (55% offense, 55% defense) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-3.2 PPG Next 4 games (4-0) : Avg. score: CSU 37, Opp 25 | Avg. yards per play: CSU 7.6, Opp 6.4 | Avg. percentile performance: 73% (75% offense, 52% defense) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-0.8 PPG

: Avg. score: CSU 37, Opp 25 | Avg. yards per play: CSU 7.6, Opp 6.4 | Avg. percentile performance: 73% (75% offense, 52% defense) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-0.8 PPG Last 5 games (1-4): Avg. score: Opp 33, CSU 33 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.5, CSU 6.2 | Avg. percentile performance: 48% (63% offense, 42% defense) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-9.3 PPG

CSU finished losing four of five, watching division hopes disintegrate with very different losses to Wyoming (16-13) and Boise State (59-52). They blew an enormous lead against the Broncos, then, for the second straight year, no-showed against an inferior opponent (Idaho in 2016, Marshall in 2017) until a fourth-quarter charge that came up short.

CSU went 7-6 for the third straight year under Bobo. He is sustaining the progress that Jim McElwain had made, and the Rams have now put together top-50 performances (per S&P+) in back-to-back years. But they’ve put those rankings together by blowing out bad teams and losing tight games to good teams. In the last two years, they’re 4-12 vs. the S&P+ top 100 and 10-0 against everyone else. In one-possession finishes, they’re 1-6 against the top 100 and 5-3 against the others. They are the “can’t quite get over the hump” program.

And now they’re starting over.

Gone are quarterback Nick Stevens (8,550 career passing yards, 70 touchdown passes), receiver Michael Gallup (2,685 receiving yards in two seasons), and running back Dalyn Dawkins (3,185 career rushing yards). The Rams replace four of their top five receiving targets and three line starters (including two first-team all-MWC guys). The defense returns a decent amount, but per S&P+, CSU hasn’t had a top-80 defense since 2006 anyway.

Mind you, there’s plenty of talent. Bobo has recruited as well as anyone in the MWC not named Bryan Harsin and signed 52 three-star prospects over the last three classes.

There are exciting sophomores everywhere you look — running back Rashaad Boddie, receiver Warren Jackson, tight end Cameron Butler, nose tackle Ellison Hubbard, linebacker/end Emmanuel Jones, nickel back Darius Campbell — and Bobo has added a couple of key graduate transfers to stave off some of the offensive drop-off.

In theory, the product doesn’t have to regress all that much, and better close-game execution could make up the difference. Still, Bobo’s benefit of the doubt has become burden of proof.

Offense

The passing game was as good as advertised last year. Stevens completed 62 percent of his passes and never got sacked, and the Rams ranked fourth in passing success rate and 24th in overall Passing S&P+. Even with a merely solid run game (54th in Rushing S&P+), CSU still had the most efficient offense in the MWC:

I expected more big plays, but that’s picking nits with a unit that, thanks to efficiency and strong drive-finishing numbers, finished 13th in Off. S&P+. There’s pretty much no way to avoid falling a little bit, but the amount of regression will depend on how well complements turn into go-to guys.

If you just list the assets Bobo and new coordinator Dave Johnson have, it’s clear that all hope shouldn’t be lost.

The Rams announced the addition of Washington graduate transfer quarterback K.J. Carta-Samuels, who had intended to attend UCLA. The former four-star completed 17 of 23 passes for 186 yards in backup duty the last two seasons but made the mistake of coming to Seattle at the same time as Jake Browning.

Senior running back Izzy Matthews has rushed for nearly 2,000 yards over three seasons and gives CSU a couple of burly options in the backfield. He’s 6’0, 220 pounds, while Boddie is 6’0, 225. Boddie was wonderfully efficient for a redshirt freshman.

Senior receiver Olabisi Johnson topped Gallup’s rate stats, albeit while mostly facing No. 2 cornerbacks. He averaged 14.5 yards per catch to Gallup’s 14.1, 8.8 yards per target to Gallup’s 8.5, and a 54 percent success rate to Gallup’s 52. Your rate stats often stay pretty similar as you move up the depth chart, so Johnson could handle a heavier load. Meanwhile, the 6’5 Johnson (17.7 per catch, 13.3 per target, 75 percent success rate over 20 targets) could be a breakout star even if his rate stats have no choice but to come down. And a couple of other recent star recruits — redshirt freshmen EJ Scott and Tyler Smith — could be ready, if they can shake some injury issues.

The line must replace all-conference center Jake Bennett and all-conference left tackle Zack Golditch but brings back five guys with starting experience, plus Louisville transfer T.J. Roundtree and JUCO transfer Keith Williams. In all, there are five seniors and 10 former three-star recruits.

A Bobo offense has always been based on balance. CSU’s 2017 was no exception — the Rams were 59th in standard-downs run rate, 61st in adjusted pace, and 80th in solo tackles created. They are exceedingly normal in their goals, and I’m guessing that won’t change this time around, but the addition of Johnson is interesting.

Bobo and Johnson worked together at Georgia a decade ago, and Johnson’s most recent employer (Frank Solich’s Ohio) boasted a far more run-heavy attack. Boddie and Matthews could bludgeon opponents, but this is still Bobo. He’s going to want to throw, and in Carta-Samuels, he might have a lifeline.

Presumptive Stevens successor Collin Hill tore his ACL early in the offseason, so CSU is going through spring ball with only junior J.C. Robles and redshirt freshmen Judd Erickson and Justice McCoy. All three are former three-star recruits, but Carta-Samuels offers security and efficiency potential if he can build a rapport with Johnson, Jackson, and company.

There is little known depth in the receiving corps — as excited as I am about Johnson and Jackson, it’s scary that they’re the only two returning wideouts who caught a pass last year, no matter how many former three-stars (Smith, Scott, sophomore Darius Wise, four incoming freshmen) are in the rotation.

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Defense

CSU’s defense has been the wrong kind of consistent. The Rams ranked 76th in Def. S&P+ in 2006, Sonny Lubick’s second-to-last season as head coach, and has since ranked between 81st and 107th every year — they are never close to the worst defense in the MWC, but they’re never close to the best either.

Bobo is bringing former Tennessee coordinator John Jancek to town. Jancek fell victim to one of many over-thinking sprees by former Tennessee head coach Butch Davis — the two parties [air quotes] mutually agreed to part ways [end air quotes] after Jancek had engineered back-to-back top-20 Def. S&P+ performances in 2014-15. He had floated around the last two years, first as USF position coach, then as Kentucky defensive consultant, until a new opportunity arose.

Jancek’s last Tennessee defense was pretty good at overplaying — the Vols attacked the run on standard downs and attacked the passer on passing downs, forcing opponents to Plan B. They were willing to risk big plays in the name of efficiency.

Of course, they also had defensive end Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, etc. We’ll see if he has the personnel he needs to dictate at CSU.

Jancek will be overseeing a move from a 3-4 to a 4-3, but it appears the personnel can handle such a move. End Arjay Jean could thrive, and at 6’4, 245, it appears sophomore OLB Emmanuel Jones could make an easy transition to DE. The tackles were awfully undersized for a 3-4 structure, and DTs like junior Richard King and sophomore Ellison Hubbard could be more suited to Jancek’s system.

If the line — still undersized even in a system that doesn’t prefer 320-pound nose tackles — holds up, the linebackers should thrive. Josh Watson is a tackling machine who took part in 12 run stuffs, and Max McDonald and Tre Thomas appear suited for weakside and strongside roles, respectively.

There’s some concern at cornerback, as since-departed seniors Kevin Nutt Jr., Shun Johnson, and Justin Sweet combined for six tackles for loss and 21 passes defensed. The return of corner Braylin Scott will help. He had three INTs in 2016 but missed 2017 while dealing with criminal charges; he was cleared for practice this spring. He and Anthony Hawkins are interesting, but there are still depth issues, especially if Darius Campbell ends up at nickel. That would require at least one freshman or redshirt freshman to carve out a role.

There are far fewer worries at safety. Former Utah safety Jordan Fogal returns, and junior Jamal Hicks was a lynchpin — CSU’s late-season regression correlated perfectly with him suffering a broken arm.

Special Teams

Special teams have been a strength for CSU the last couple of years. There were no clear weaknesses, and all of the legs — place-kicker Wyatt Bryan (5-for-6 on FGs over 40 yards), punter Ryan Stonehouse (45.9 average), and kickoffs guy Braxton Davis (23rd in kickoff efficiency) — return.

Olabisi Johnson is a solid punt returner, though the Rams are in the market for a new kick returner following the departure of Detrich Clark. Still, this will be a good unit once more in 2018.

2018 outlook

CSU averaged 36 points per game offensively and allowed 32 points per game, but the Rams only posted or allowed a score in the 30s once each. After two straight years of roller coaster rides, the Rams are to evaluate. CSU’s upside under Bobo is obvious, but the downside has been a little too prevalent.

You can see whatever you want in how Bobo’s doing. He’s recruited well, and he’s put together three straight bowl campaigns. But the Rams have left wins on the board each year, and now there’s enough turnover to make a fourth straight 7-6 season more of a goal than a hazard.

S&P+ projects a fall to 95th overall. With the schedule, even that drastic a stumble could still result in a bowl, but the addition of Carta-Samuels and an underrated defensive coordinator, combined with the presence of so many exciting sophomores, means the ceiling’s still a lot higher than 95th. It’s up to Bobo to prove he can take the Rams closer to their ceiling than they’ve managed.

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