COMMENTARY

It isn’t the Patriots’ fault. But this is a waste of time.

Ho. Hum. Here come the Houston Texans for a divisional playoff game matchup in New England, and Gillette Stadium season ticket holders are treating it like just another September game against the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars. They might have had better luck unloading preseason passes than they might for this anticipated wreck.

For whatever reason, this sense of superiority offends some Patriots fans to a certain degree, even while they boast about their team’s dominance over NFL dreck that can’t compare. Is the Patriots’ dynasty partly due to a dysfunctional AFC East? Sure. Is it also due to the fact that they just so happen to better than everybody else? Well, yeah.

But none of that erases the matter that the AFC playoff picture this season was a mess. The Texans are coming to Foxborough only because Oakland’s Derek Carr went down on Christmas Eve. They’re only even in the postseason because their fellow AFC South cousins in Indianapolis can no longer put a comprehensive product on the field, even with one of the supposed best quarterbacks in the game running the show.


This is a team that signed Brock Osweiler to a $72 million deal after…well, what? What exactly did head coach Bill O’Brien see in the guy that warranted any sort of reward? Those are the questions we asked back in March. They’re the same ones we’re asking now.

January was supposed to be reserved for the best that the NFL had to offer. Instead, we got last weekend’s dreadful slate of wild card games during which the only sense of drama was waiting to hear what stupid observation Phill Simms would have (Just pick one, there were many). Now, we get this. Everybody else is laughing at the stakes involved.

Green Bay-Dallas? Dak Prescott vs. Aaron Rodgers? Fascinating.

Pittsburgh-Kansas City? The most dangerous offense in the playoffs vs. Andy Reid’s clock management? Compelling.

Seattle-Atlanta? Possible NFL MVP Matt Ryan against a Seattle defense still trying to hang onto its legacy? Absolutely.

Elsewhere, anticipate things being much better this weekend.

Houston-New England? This is a joke.

But it’s not the Patriots’ fault.

It’s not their fault.

This week’s picks

ESPN.com: Yeah, all Pats.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 23, Texans 13. “The Patriots have dominated the Texans over the years, beating them 27-0 in Week Three this season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Tom Brady is back now, which isn’t a good thing for the Texans’ top-ranked defense. Houston looked good on defense last week, but that was Connor Cook for the Raiders. This will be Brady and his quick passing game. Can the Texans get to him? If they can, the Patriots might have issues. I just don’t think the Texans will be able to put up too many points here with Brock Osweiler against the league’s top-scoring defense. The Houston defense will keep it close for a while, but in the end Brady will get it going and pull it out in the second half.”


CBS Sports staff: Seven out of eight pick the Pats (-16).

FiveThirtyEight: Patriots with an 85 percent chance of winning (highest of all teams).

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 30, Texans 10. “Brock Osweiler got a big confidence boost by playing well enough for Houston to get past Oakland. It will be a lot more difficult against a New England defense that will take away the run. Osweiler will be put in uncomfortable downs and distances often against the Patriots’ pass rush. The Texans’ pass rush comes in hot, but Brady will neutralize it by spreading the field in a short-to-intermediate passing game. As the Texans’ linebackers get worn down trying to chase his targets, the Patriots will then turn to LeGarrette Blount to play the “closer” role with a few long second-half bursts. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will be well prepared for what Romeo Crennel schemes, while Bill O’Brien will be handcuffed with his personnel to try to solve Matt Patricia’s game plan this time.”

David Steele, Sporting News: Patriots 42, Texans 17. “The Texans’ defense played like the top-ranked unit they are … just against a severely-compromised Raiders offense. Seeing them match up with Tom Brady and a unit that lacks Rob Gronkowski but still managed to be damn potent down the stretch could be a lot of fun. When the Texans have the ball, though, not so much fun. Possibly nausea-inducing, actually. Brock Osweiler needs to do two things: remember DeAndre Hopkins is on his team, and get big plays from the defense and special teams. That would be to keep it close.”


Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk: Patriots 31, Texans 10. “Yes, Houston lost 27-0 in New England against a Patriots team that lacked Tom Brady. Sure, the Texans are favored to lose by 16. Of course, the Patriots are more determined than ever to get back to the Super Bowl and win it. To reverse those dynamics (and to close the dramatic the talent gap), the Texans need to score early, pressure Brady consistently, and avoid mistakes on special teams. They need to. They won’t.”

Michael David Smith, ProFootballTalk: Patriots 38, Texans 16. “I can’t remember a more lopsided playoff game. The Patriots blew out the Texans during the regular season, and that was with third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. With Tom Brady now back at the helm, I’ll be shocked if the Texans even keep this game close into the fourth quarter, let alone win.”

USA Today staff: All Pats.

Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “The playoffs are when the Patri*ts do their best cheating, and Gillette Stadium is where they do their best cheating. With home field advantage throughout, it’s going to be tough knocking off Deflatey McGee and Filmy McFilmerson. Brock Osweiler won’t present much of a challenge.”

MassLive.com staff: It’s all Patriots.

SB Nation staff: New England. Everybody.

Foxsports.com staff: Pats. Everyone.

Bryan Altman, CBS Sports: Patriots 31, Texans 9. “Is there a part of me that thinks things could get out of hand and the Patriots could put up 45 points themselves? Yup. But, I think it’s far more likely that the Texans’ defense keeps things remotely competitive while the Texans struggle to put any points up at all.”

Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots. “The Patriots are in a different league from the Texans. And that is pretty much that.”

Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 29, Texans 16. “Interesting matchup — or call it an interesting anomaly — between these two teams on Saturday night. Texans at Patriots marks just the fifth time in postseason history that the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense meets the league’s No. 1 total defense. How about this for historical analytics? The top scoring defense in such matchups has won every time. Makes sense. Every coach I’ve ever spoken to on this subject laments that the league still quantifies — rather, qualifies — the premier defense by yards allowed, not points. Steve Mariucci’s hair unparts when he gets fired up about it. Of course, New England paced everyone in points allowed this season. I say “of course,” but then wonder in the next breath how many people actually think of Matt Patricia’s unit as being more effective than the groups in Denver, Seattle or even Minnesota. Houston’s defense must generate New England mistakes, despite the fact that Tom Brady gets rid of the ball quickly. If Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus create disruption — not necessarily sacks, but tipped balls and interceptions (see: Clowney’s thievery of Connor Cook) — the Texans have a chance. That said, I fully expect LeGarrette Blount to get 15 to 20 carries, keeping that Texans front honest. The Patriots allowed 15.6 points per game this season, and I don’t see a Brock Osweiler-engineered attack surpassing that mark.”

Globe staff: All Pats.

It says here: Patriots 37, Texans 19. Remember when the Broncos came to Foxborough with Tim Tebow at the helm six Januarys ago (New England, 45-10)? Yeah, this will be like that.