“And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.” Friedrich Nietzsche

Huddersfield Town’s defeat to Fulham leaves them planted at the bottom of the Premier League, five points from safety and stretches our losing streak to seven games. It was a cruel, but not unpredictable, blow when Mitrovic scored the 91st-minute winner at Craven Cottage.

Of all the defeats Town have suffered this season, and there’s plenty to pick from, this feels like the most sickening. It was a game we could have taken something from if we’d have shown a bit of ambition, but familiar problems led to a tepid display that a relatively poor Fulham team were able to exploit.

Negative tactics and selection

I my last post I congratulated David Wagner’s bold decisions for our Boxing Day match, playing 4-2-3-1 and picking proper wingers to play alongside the striker and number ten. That bravery led to a far more positive performance against Manchester United. Sadly we reverted to type against Fulham, dropping Kachunga and Mbenza in favour of defensive-minded players and reverting to the 5-3-2 system that Wagner has preferred this season.

The first half performance from Town summed up the issues with the 5-3-2 system. By flooding the central areas of defence and midfield Town could dominate possession and stroke it around in our own half. However, Mounié and Pritchard were isolated up front and we lacked any kind of significant goal threat.

The second half was even worse, with Fulham showing more ambition and pinning Town back in their own half for long periods. As Fulham enjoyed more possession it opened up potential for break aways for Town, but our slow build up play meant we didn’t make the most of these opportunities.

Something needs to change…

It’s been a frustrating run of games for Town fans and it feels like it’s now time for a significant change. A new manager or a huge splurge on attacking players could provide that change, but it’s possible that Town could change their approach without having to make fundamental changes to their personnel.

A lack of goals has been a problem for Town for a number of years now, but recently we’ve also lacked any kind of threat on goal either. With so few attacking players in the lineup most weeks, it’s hard to see how we could score many.

A move back to 4-2-3-1 and a commitment to have a go at every team we play might lead to the odd heavy defeat, but I’m confident that our players will flourish under a more attacking system and goals will come if we play more offensive players in a tactical system that’s more aggressive.

The team against Fulham had six defenders and two defensive midfielders in the starting lineup, so it’s no surprise we didn’t score. It might work if we had the kind of creative players up front that can create goals out of nowhere, but sadly we don’t.

Relegation feels more likely than not

I’d like to consider myself an eternal optimist but things look pretty bleak right now. The league position is worrying, but the bigger worry is our lack of goals. We need to win between six and eight of the remaining 18 games, which isn’t an impossible task but I can’t see how we’ll manage to score the goals required to accumulate those wins.

I wouldn’t say that relegation is inevitable, but it’s certainly the most likely outcome for Town. I’ve just had a quick look at the latest relegation odds and our chances of survival are now about the same as the chances of rolling a six on a dice. Not impossible, but a relatively unlikely event.

If we can beat Burnley and Cardiff in our next two league games then those odds will be slashed and the mood around Huddersfield will be a lot brighter. Given our current form it’s hard to imagine we’ll be able to pull off back-to-back Premier League victories though, but it would be a great way to kickstart our season.

#WagnerOut calls are on the rise

It’s no big surprise that more and more fans are calling for Wagner to be sacked, given we’ve not won for so many games. I’m not in that camp, and won’t be likely to join any time soon. While I’ve grumbled about tactical decisions and team selections lately, I still believe Wagner knows how to get the best out of this squad of players.

When David Wagner took over at Town he laid out a plan to Dean Hoyle that involved reaching the Premier League within five seasons. He over-achieved in his goal and managed to get promotion in his first full season, so it’s not all that surprising that we’ve struggled to make the transition from Championship strugglers to established Premier League performers.

I don’t see the benefit of changing managers at this time in the season. There isn’t likely to be a big pot of money available to reshape the squad in January, so why expect someone else to come in and do better with the players that Wagner has picked to play his system. Far better to let Wagner continue in his long-term project and see where it leads us, even if that involves a short term trip back to the Championship.