You probably know already, the FCS playoff committee ranks teams, and not coaches. However, for the next 2656 words, let’s forgo that and look at what the games mean for each individual coach in the playoffs. Some are here after a long, grueling season and are fighting to prove there was no fluke and reap the fruits of their labor. For others, their playoffs began last week in the CCG, and now they must prove that their record isn’t just a product of a schedule deemed weak. However, let’s not dawdle too much in generalities and delve into the specifics!

#16 – Brown

Brown busted onto the scene when they beat then 2-0 UC Davis in week 3 and they would go on to win their next 2 games to start 4-0. They went from unranked after week 3 to being #7 in the nation after toppling Cornell. From then on, they would follow a W-L-W-L pattern until the end of the season. The showed big signs of a coach that would trample teams OOC but once inside the brutal Ivy schedule, flounder. However if you look at the schedule, outside of a bad Penn loss, they consistently beat the teams they should have. If they want to keep the trend continuing then the pressure is on to beat the #17 Idaho State. A win validifies everything they’ve played for, and that they aren’t just a product of a decent record in a great conference.

#17 – Idaho State

Idaho State’s coach has had a nearly identical resume, beating up on OOC teams since week 2 only to come into their conference and play about .500 ball. They built themselves on blowing teams out of the water, and they only needed 2 wins (the second one being over then juggernaut Abilene Christian) to be featured in the rankings (#14 of 15). Since then they’ve seen their SoS go down week after week, the teams they beat tanked and outside of their Montana State game, they blew every opportunity to establish themselves in the Big Sky North like everyone expected them to. This is another big game with high stakes. If they can pull it out it will show everyone that they can step up in high stakes situations, much like they did in the Drake game.

AdjSov week in and week out has been my most accurate predictor of wins and losses, it’s about 70% accurate over all of the games this season. So I’ll be adding the AdjSoV game prediction after every game.

AdjSoV gives Idaho State a 51.9% chance to win, definitely the 16 v 17 matchup we deserve!

#15 – Eastern Kentucky

The EKU coach hasn’t been around for a massive amount of time, but that makes the impact all the more impressive. The program has 1 game in the first 4 weeks + week 0, and they didn’t show up in the rankings until after week 10, right after their new coach joined the team. Being a coach from the FBS, his name preceded him, and they were quickly dubbed the scariest team in FCS. They lost only 1 game since joining the team and they had clinched their CCG. After that they took down Mississippi Valley State and the true magnitude of their power was on full display in front of everyone. To everyone, this game seems to only be a small bump in the road to EKU’s coronation, but the coach recognizes that in this game there are no free passes and a loss would look like a terrible embarrassment given their prowess thus far.

#18 – Hampton

The Hampton coach nurtured this program since the beginning. They also joined in week 2, and despite a meager 1-2 start, they hit a groove in the conference. The program was largely under the radar until the later parts of the season. They were 5-2 and making a ruckus, enough that they could not be ignored. However gaining more eyes also invites scrutiny and Hampton’s wins were very bad, and his 2 losses were the only 2 competitors he’d played (San Diego and NDSU). But a cross-conference matchup with McNeese got scheduled, a grudge match between 2 teams that were “overrated” in many’s eyes. That game turned out now to be a playoff game as Hampton sits at #18 and McNeese sits at home to watch from the megabracket. The big underdog in this matchup recognizes this is again his big shot to prove himself. When doubts arise, so must Hampton, whereas a loss will make everyone think he was who they thought he was. It’s maybe the game that means the most for anyone in the first round.

AdjSoV gives Hampton a 50.4% chance to win, but that’s based on EKU’s whole season.

#14 – Bethune-Cookman

The current coach inherited a 2-2 team in week 7. All of those games were close games against mediocre teams on average. But new management completely transformed the program into a juggernaut. They won 4 of their last 5 in the regular season including dubs over JSU and MVSU, 2 defacto playoff teams. This allowed them a spot in the CCG against Chattanooga, another top team in the nation. Despite a tough start, they pulled it around and came out with a conference crown. Now they have high expectations and are likely seeded below their weight class. They go up against an opponent they already beat in Jacksonville State. A win reassures that they’re a top competitor and a force in these playoffs. A loss could make them the first eliminated A-sun team despite winning it all.

#19 – Jacksonville State

Not only has the coach been here since week 0, but they came back from being 0-2 early in the season. But the coach didn’t retire or look for another job, they stuck with it and they would be rewarded with a 4 game win streak over some good competition mind you. They’d finish the season with another 4 game win streak and although they’re 0-2 against playoff teams, they’re 9-2 against everyone else, and in a pretty good conference. This may be their final chance to prove that they belong here, despite being outshined by multiple teams in their own division. If they lose it will be a season of what-ifs, and we’ll know that their week 8 loss to Bethune-Cookman was no fluke.

AdjSoV gives JSU a 57.0% chance of winning, but again it doesn’t factor in that the B-C coach only was there for their best stretch of games.

#13 – Eastern Washington

Certainly the most controversial head coaching spot in all of FCFB this year has been EWU. For the majority of the season, it was one coach who left right before a 1v2 matchup with Montana to pursue a coaching position at Virginia, a team he didn’t even want. But EWU is now on its 3rd coach, the current one having played 1 game, a 22-21 loss to PSU. There is a lot of talk about this team being the one everyone wants to draw in the first round. Nobody believes in EWU, but their current coach has brought something completely new to the program, long term stability. They elected to not play week 13 in order to maintain playoff positioning, something previous coaches probably would disagree with. But it’s his team now and his mantra. Winning will likely spark a “Texas is back” style cheer/groan, and a loss would be the end of one of the most noteworthy teams in the first ever full FCS season.

#20 – Northern Colorado

The first ever program to defeat Montana is here in the playoffs. But don’t get it wrong, the current coach took over the team just after this occurred. Since then, the team has gone 2-3 with losses to “rival” Northern Arizona and BSN bottom feeder, Portland State. But with wins over the Idaho teams, the new coach was able to tread water and get the Grizzly killer (Or cannibal? I mean they’re both bear mascots.) into the postseason. It’s given the coach a new opportunity to redefine what NorCo can do under him. It’s no easy business winning a game in the playoffs but he’s been given a gift of playing a newer coach. That comes with pros and cons since people aren’t ranking teams by their resumes after the initial seeding; he won’t be able to pass the L off as a loss to a better resume. Winning is expected of him.

AdjSoV gives EWU a 50.5% chance of winning, so it seems all of these matchups are going to be incredibly close affairs!

#12 – Butler

A once-fearsome squad got neutered down the stretch by FCS bottom feeder North Dakota. Butler was, for a long time, the favorite to win the division and collect a bye, which is a serious accomplishment for a coach who has been around since the beginning of his team’s resume. The coach made the risky decision to play in week 13 (v TTU) to climb as high as he could and maintain a higher seed. It seemed like a risky decision by most but Butler doesn’t lose to good teams, only the bad ones, and Tenny Tech is still a top 50 team by comp even after a loss to Butler. He’s now been rewarded by getting to play a team that only snuck in due to a CCG win. Regardless, if he doesn’t pull it out, he’s going to have a lot of people wonder what could have been. And if he wins, he’ll have a lot of people quaking in their boots, including Montana’s Drew “Butler is scary” Haber.

#21 – Presbyterian

Under the radar doesn’t even begin to describe this team. They have never appeared on the polls, not even the committee ones, and most people didn’t know they existed until their most recent coaching duo showed up. The Blue Hoes are under new management and despite a 7-3 record in a bad conference, and not playing a quality opponent outside of a 24 point loss to Cal Poly, they’re not counted out yet. The new coaches have played 3 games as OC and DC of Presbyterian, and are 3-0 in that time. They may not have the flashiest wins, by comp or by MoV, but they’ve made the most of their opportunities for sure. Now in the playoffs it’s anyone’s game and an undefeated coaching duo will certainly turn some heads. If they win they’ll be able to undermine the FCS for another week, but a loss ends their fun early without much hope of sneaking over to a megabracket team.

AdjSoV gives Butler a 56.9% chance of winning, nearly tied for furthest differential with B-C v JSU.

#11 – Chattanooga

Not many coaches can claim a 6 game winning streak, but the Chattanooga coach can. Not many can claim a win over a team with a bye, but Chattanooga can. Not many can say they did nothing but rise in the polls from week 8 to 12 but Chattanooga almost can (5->8 in weeks 11->12). Their coach has been here since the beginning and their 1-2 record didn’t inspire much more than dread in MVSU for having lost to him. However since then, he’s grown into a formidable foe. Winning over then 5-1 Campbell made everyone pay attention very quickly, and he didn’t stop there. Making it all the way to the CCG in one of the toughest divisions in FCS. The bummer is a loss in front of a national audience to Bethune-Cookman that kept him out of the holy gates of the top 8 seeds. He’s now beginning his redemption arc against a playoff bottom feeder, and in order to satisfyingly end the hero’s journey, he must do what he’s done all year, destroy a middle of the road opponent.

#22 – Incarnate Word

The UIW coach started out as the UCD coach but left midseason for a flashier FBS team. But now they spend their days tearing up the Southland, going 8-0 since joining the team back in Week 7. The problem is that Houston Baptist is their best win, even when you count in their UCD wins. In total, they’re 11-2 in FCS which is impressive in its own respect unless you’re UNLV, but you have to consider that when watching them in the playoffs. They’re more experienced than they look under their current HC. And a win brings glory to the Southland, a conference nobody had really heard of until we had to for division race analysis. If he loses he maintains the legacy of losing to better teams, but nobody is hotter than him right now, or his team, so it’s hard to count them out.

AdjSoV gives Chattanooga a 56.9% chance to move on, nice.

#10 – Yale

Taking over a joke of a program, the new Yale coach quickly turned the ship around. A quick 2 wins vs. Albany and Penn got the ball rolling. When he got to write the wrong of week 2 (a loss to Princeton) he took it to the Tigers and crushed them 41-13. After declaring, through results, that they’re a top coach, they made it to the CCG vs. Princeton. This time they weren’t able to capitalize and missed the uprights and a bye. But they are representing the Ivy almost as much as Princeton is. If they want to give the most respek they can to big leaf conference then they have to get it done vs. the best of the worst (Stony Brook of AE). If they win they’ll dance with the big boys and be able to prove they were a snub.

#23 – Stony Brook

The coveted AE top spot. They knew it was a one-bid league and they’re alone here in a conference that definitely has the lowest talent to discord activity ratio. But regardless they’ve torn up all their opponents since conference play, and they have been the coach since the beginning of the season. They’ll have their work cut out for them as they have non-garbage teams to play this time. But a win validifies the AE which means their entire conference will be behind them rooting them on. A loss puts the period on the joke that was the AE this season.

AdjSoV gives Yale a 53.6% chance to advance, which is close when considering that that one of the teams was almost a bye and the other needed to win their conference to get here.

#9 – Montana State

The little brother of Montana. Always living under their shadow and the shadow of the Big Sky North as a whole. But now the coach, who has been there since the beginning, has his own opportunity to shine. With playing the hardest schedule, they had their work cut out for them and they missed every in conference opportunity. Out of conference, they took down Princeton and Stony Brook, 2 champions, and lost to MVSU. But in conference their best win is Northern Colorado who needed immense help to make the playoffs. MSU is deep in the Big Sky portion of the bracket but they’ll have their first game against Delaware State. If they lose then it’ll verify that they’ve lost their ability to win big games late in the season. It also verifies that they didn’t belong with so many losses, having the worst record in the tournament (along with NorCo).

#24 – Delaware State

The least publicized about conference has the lowest seed in the tournament. It’s a good thing because the coach, who has been here since the beginning (much like the MSU coach), has quietly dominated everyone in their conference. The 0-4 start was what tanked their resume and they had to build it back up, and they did. They need a win over a playoff team before they can stay they belong among the top. They had the unfortunate draw of a coach who has been there since the beginning. If they lose that will be it, but if they win, we’ll know they found something out in conference that helps them demolish teams. And in that case, everyone should be scared.

AdjSoV says Montana State has a 53.2% chance, completing the circuit of incredibly close matchups. It’s anyone’s game for sure when the biggest gap in team resumes is good for 3.2% favorites.

And that concludes the matchups of the first round. I hope to do one for next week but I’m not sure I’ll have time. I’m incredibly excited to see how this shapes up, and I wish you all good luck! Go FCS!