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“This finding does not mean Canada will ultimately lose when the case gets to appeal,” he said. “But unless the U.S. changes its tune on the WTO, this case will sit in in limbo for a long time. That’s the problem for Canada, it’s stuck now in the zeroing dispute.”

The arcane practice of “zeroing” is one of the most hotly contested issues among the WTO’s 164 member countries. It has long been used by the U.S. to prove that foreign firms are unfairly “dumping” or selling products into American markets at prices that are lower than in their home markets.

Put simply, a zeroing calculation attempts to prove dumping has occurred by taking into consideration the average of all shipments from a foreign firm sold below the average U.S. price. To the frustration of U.S. trading partners, it then ignores all shipments sold above the U.S. price, effectively giving them a weight of zero. Countries targeted by the practice complain that it exaggerates the gap in prices, making a dumping finding more likely and penalties more severe.

“It’s complete gibberish mathematics,” said Prusa. “It’s a trick that works for the U.S. by throwing out adverse facts and now Canada is trapped in it.”

An additional irritant for Canada in the softwood lumber case is that the “home price” for Canada was calculated across many months — ignoring seasonal fluctuations, he added.

“It matters because prices change over time,” said Prusa. “You might have high demand in the summer and low demand in the winter. When you do that average the way the U.S. has been doing, even normal variations look like dumping.”