Let’s take a walk through the last two rounds and what each team needs to be worried about. Broadly speaking there are three main paths for the last two weeks to follow:

The Bulldogs aiming to win one game and lock up a grand final spot.

The Crows and Brisbane trying to build percentage in games they’re favoured in, with the Crows also needing other results to qualify.

Melbourne and GWS needing to beat the Bulldogs to have any chance of qualifying.

The short version is the Dogs need to beat GWS, while four other sides have to win both games plus maintaining or improving their percentage.

According to the HPN Team Ratings, here’s how strong we think each team is coming into round 6:

Club Defensive Score Offensive Score Midfield Score Overall Rating vs League Average Adelaide Crows 116.78 107.46 75.00 99.75 Brisbane Lions 115.10 86.93 116.71 106.25 Carlton 85.79 65.13 86.84 79.25 Collingwood 102.29 121.06 75.70 99.68 Fremantle 102.56 89.56 85.75 92.62 GWS Giants 98.38 93.02 110.01 100.47 Melbourne 71.42 93.77 138.12 101.10 Western Bulldogs 107.68 143.07 111.88 120.87

We could see a grand finalist on 4 wins and 3 losses. There’s a narrow path for Brisbane if they drop a game from here. Carlton and Fremantle have a specific set of results they need which basically involve themselves, each other, Collingwood and the Bulldogs winning and the other contenders losing.

Friday round 6 – Adelaide v Fremantle

Adelaide need to win here to stay alive and put pressure on the rest of the pack and they need a small percentage gain to get past GWS. A loss eliminates them. GWS have a harder draw, but the percentage gap between the two sides is (roughly) only one or two goals. As noted above, the Fremantle path is very specific and unlikely – but for all Dockers fans still existent.

A quick side note: to us here at HPN having percentage as the primary tiebreaker where the competition is set up like this feels obtuse. It would make more sense that head to head record was considered as the primary way of deciding which of the two tied teams is actually better.

Saturday round 6 – Brisbane v Collingwood

As well as needing to win, percentage is very relevant for the Lions. In both weeks they play before their relevant rivals on this measure, so just need to put on as much of a score as possible.

They also need to stay ahead of the Demons to guarantee their spot (currently 121.8% to 102.7%). They can also try to make up ground on the Bulldogs (176.8%) in case they drop a game. They probably have about a seven-goal break on the Demons and are roughly ten goals adrift of the Bulldogs.

Saturday night round 6 – GWS v Western Bulldogs

The crunch game of the round. The Bulldogs are the presumptive grand final hosts at this point. They sit 50% and a win ahead of Brisbane in second, and they are virtually certain of making the grand final as long as they don’t lose both games from here.

However, their match against GWS is extremely crucial this weekend because losing that leaves them vulnerable to being jumped by any of four other teams. If Brisbane have already won earlier in the day, and if Melbourne win after this game, then a loss to GWS in Canberra would turn the Dogs’ round 7 game into sudden-death.

For GWS, their season is over if they lose.

Sunday round 6 – Carlton v Melbourne

Melbourne keep their chances alive with a win, but also need to hope for the Bulldogs to have lost to GWS, or Brisbane have either lost or only narrowly won. They need to look to pump up their percentage, and ideally win by about 6 goals more than Brisbane’s result.

Looking ahead to Round 7

By this stage we’ll know a lot more. A Dogs win leaves them virtually unassailable save for big Brisbane results putting them ahead on percentage for hosting duties.

If the Dogs have lost to GWS, then potentially both spots are up for grabs including hosting privileges. With a Dogs loss to GWS, any of Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne who also win will be right in the hunt for either spot, alongside GWS. A plausible post-round 6 ladder with a Dogs loss and those three sides winning is:

Western Bulldogs 16 Brisbane Lions 16 Melbourne 16 GWS Giants 14 Adelaide Crows 14 Fremantle 8 Carlton 8 Collingwood 4

This is the most interesting scenario so we’ll look at round 7 under it alone. Remember, it’s just how things look if GWS beat the Bulldogs and the other favourites win. With a Bulldogs win in round 6 all that matters for other sides is winning into second place.

Friday night Round 7 – Brisbane v GWS

Whoever wins this match temporarily jumps the Bulldogs into top spot, while the loser is eliminated from grand final contention. Percentage is relevant in either case – for Brisbane against the Bulldogs and Dees, and for GWS against Adelaide.

Saturday night Round 7 – Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

Whoever wins will temporarily be in a grand final position along with the winner of Brisbane and GWS the night before. The loser will be eliminated.

If GWS won, then the winner of this game will host the final. If Brisbane won, hosting is determined by percentage – likely the Dogs hosting the Lions, or the Lions hosting the Dees.

Sunday Round 7 – Collingwood v Adelaide

Adelaide will need GWS to have won both games, otherwise this will already be a dead rubber. If GWS are occupying second on the ladder after beating the Dogs and the Lions, then the Crows need to jump them with a win over the Pies. Percentage may or may not be relevant for them – that all depends on the margins in earlier games because they may already be ahead of GWS in percentage terms.

AFLW PAV – Post Round 5

We will end the post by having a super quick look at PAV as it sits in the AFLW.

Player Club PAVOff PAVDef PAVMid PAV Total Matches Emma Kearney WB 14.30 12.63 17.34 44.27 5 Daisy Pearce MELB 7.63 5.17 22.54 35.34 5 Ellie Blackburn WB 13.49 9.20 11.56 34.26 5 Brooke Lochland WB 25.90 1.16 6.80 33.87 5 Chelsea Randall ADEL 8.52 18.63 6.32 33.47 5 Kate Lutkins BL 3.64 22.52 5.78 31.94 5 Elise O'Dea MELB 6.43 6.23 15.74 28.40 5 Courtney Gum GWS 8.57 6.31 12.49 27.37 5 Dana Hooker FRE 7.88 7.98 10.67 26.53 5 Emma King COLL 13.63 3.68 7.80 25.11 5 Ebony Marinoff ADEL 4.94 9.26 10.74 24.94 5 Caitlyn Edwards COLL 12.87 4.52 6.86 24.25 5 Ruth Wallace ADEL 15.82 2.63 4.68 23.13 5 Alicia Eva GWS 3.64 6.25 13.22 23.11 5 Christina Bernardi COLL 14.90 3.32 4.87 23.09 5 Phoebe McWilliams GWS 17.46 2.34 3.00 22.80 5 Jess Wuetschner BL 13.89 3.21 5.12 22.22 5 Amanda Farrugia GWS 4.93 7.80 9.48 22.21 5 Aasta O'Connor WB 8.30 6.15 7.36 21.81 5 Kara Donnellan FRE 2.63 8.63 10.29 21.55 5 Stephanie Chiocci COLL 8.47 5.49 7.37 21.32 5 Bonnie Toogood WB 14.16 3.21 3.68 21.05 5 Kirsty Lamb WB 5.40 4.32 10.88 20.60 5 Jamie Stanton BL 3.64 7.81 9.12 20.57 5 Karen Paxman MELB 4.82 4.60 11.10 20.52 5 Sabrina Frederick-Traub BL 9.62 4.79 5.60 20.01 5 Alexandra Anderson BL 4.33 7.32 8.33 19.97 5 Richelle Cranston MELB 10.10 0.84 8.98 19.91 5 Rhiannon Metcalfe ADEL 9.73 2.91 7.03 19.68 5 Brittany Gibson BL 7.29 3.66 8.33 19.27 5 Chloe Molloy COLL 4.40 12.93 1.87 19.20 5 Hannah Scott WB 3.24 11.80 3.91 18.95 5 Maddison Gay CARL 5.67 3.26 9.81 18.75 5 Moana Hope COLL 16.25 0.86 1.46 18.57 4 Tahlia Randall BL 7.51 -0.69 11.74 18.56 5 Jessica Dal Pos GWS 3.89 5.21 9.43 18.54 5 Emily Bates BL 2.05 7.47 8.91 18.43 5 Ebony Antonio FRE 4.20 11.59 2.46 18.25 5 Jenna Bruton WB 6.75 5.85 5.51 18.10 5 Kate Hore MELB 9.44 2.17 6.46 18.08 5 Libby Birch WB 0.00 16.65 1.42 18.07 5 Shelley Scott MELB 9.84 0.65 7.57 18.06 5 Jasmine Garner COLL 7.62 6.36 3.97 17.95 5 Erin McKinnon GWS 8.50 1.56 7.65 17.71 5 Rebecca Beeson GWS 6.23 5.64 5.61 17.48 5 Jaimee Lambert COLL 5.76 4.63 6.98 17.36 5 Hayley Miller FRE 5.25 3.38 8.53 17.16 5 Jacinda Barclay GWS 11.68 2.76 2.68 17.13 5 Angelica Gogos WB 3.51 1.86 11.67 17.04 5 Tegan Cunningham MELB 12.46 -0.11 4.58 16.93 5 Britt Tully GWS 4.15 2.33 10.44 16.92 5 Breann Moody CARL 4.99 4.37 7.52 16.87 5 Sarah Hosking CARL 3.78 4.67 8.30 16.75 5 Aisling Utri WB 8.36 5.28 3.10 16.75 5 Emma Zielke BL 2.73 3.92 9.94 16.60 5 Sarah Allan ADEL 1.14 13.73 1.66 16.53 5 Gabby O'Sullivan FRE 7.88 2.23 6.25 16.36 5 Jenna McCormick ADEL 12.78 1.31 2.21 16.30 4 Erin Phillips ADEL 11.26 1.37 3.61 16.24 3 Amelia Barden COLL 8.80 2.70 4.63 16.14 5 Ashlee Atkins FRE 8.80 2.66 4.63 16.09 5 Cora Staunton GWS 9.87 0.96 4.87 15.70 5 Elle Bennetts GWS 4.15 3.67 7.64 15.46 5 Lara Filocamo FRE 2.10 6.81 6.12 15.03 5 Tayla Harris CARL 7.88 1.57 5.47 14.92 4 Darcy Vescio CARL 8.19 3.24 3.26 14.69 5 Ashleigh Guest MELB 2.21 5.97 6.46 14.65 5 Angela Foley ADEL 2.13 10.16 2.33 14.62 4 Belinda Smith FRE 1.31 9.36 3.85 14.52 5 Justine Mules ADEL 3.65 4.67 5.86 14.18 5 Jess Duffin COLL 4.40 8.30 1.31 14.01 4 Lisa Webb FRE 5.25 3.64 4.89 13.79 4 Kaitlyn Ashmore BL 6.83 2.23 4.63 13.69 5 Melissa Caulfield FRE 7.88 2.44 3.14 13.46 5 Aliesha Newman MELB 6.23 1.22 5.98 13.42 5 Breanna Koenen BL 2.28 7.17 3.88 13.33 5 Eloise Jones ADEL 6.69 3.14 3.47 13.30 5 Shannon Campbell BL 0.91 9.43 2.78 13.13 4 Stephanie Cain FRE 3.68 5.05 4.37 13.10 5 Monique Conti WB 5.40 3.69 3.93 13.02 5 Nicola Stevens CARL 2.73 7.22 3.06 13.01 5 Alison Downie CARL 4.31 5.41 3.22 12.94 5 Katie Brennan WB 10.12 0.89 1.93 12.94 3 Cassie Davidson FRE 0.53 10.01 2.29 12.83 5 Leah Kaslar BL 0.51 9.56 2.54 12.61 5 Naomi Ferres WB 2.70 4.75 5.12 12.57 5 Melissa Kuys COLL 5.42 4.07 3.04 12.53 5 Kate McCarthy BL 4.55 1.66 6.29 12.51 5 Brittany Bonnici COLL 1.69 6.37 4.43 12.50 5 Nicole Hildebrand BL 0.91 8.45 2.76 12.12 5 Nat Exon BL 3.47 4.20 4.43 12.10 4 Jordan Zanchetta BL 2.28 4.00 5.78 12.05 5 Gabriella Pound CARL 1.05 8.31 2.56 11.91 5 Amy Lavell FRE 9.98 0.73 1.18 11.89 5 Kerryn Harrington CARL 1.68 5.98 4.01 11.68 5 Dayna Cox ADEL 1.83 7.35 2.28 11.45 4 Melissa Hickey MELB 2.21 3.39 5.80 11.39 5 Katie Loynes CARL 3.99 2.20 5.13 11.32 4 Cecilia McIntosh COLL 3.72 4.26 3.09 11.07 5 Lauren Pearce MELB 5.42 1.01 4.61 11.04 4 Shae Audley CARL 2.31 1.73 6.88 10.92 5 Laura Duryea MELB -0.40 10.60 0.70 10.89 4 Ellie Brush GWS 1.82 6.54 2.49 10.85 5 Katherine Smith MELB 0.80 5.27 4.66 10.74 5 Sharni Webb BL 3.87 1.53 5.10 10.50 5 Pepa Randall GWS 1.30 6.52 2.66 10.47 5 Nicola Barr GWS -0.26 8.35 2.28 10.37 5 Jess Hosking CARL 2.31 3.78 4.19 10.29 4 Courtney Cramey ADEL 4.56 3.16 2.53 10.26 2 Emma Swanson GWS 1.56 4.63 3.93 10.12 4 Nicole Callinan WB 4.05 2.72 3.29 10.07 5 Ashley Sharp FRE 4.46 3.14 2.37 9.98 4 Evangeline Gooch FRE 1.05 7.51 1.41 9.97 5 Phoebe Monahan GWS -0.78 8.87 1.82 9.91 4 Stevie-Lee Thompson ADEL 1.22 6.52 1.97 9.71 5 Alicia Janz FRE 3.81 1.46 4.35 9.62 5 Tiarna Ernst WB 2.09 4.18 3.07 9.34 5 Sophie Li CARL 1.47 3.54 4.25 9.25 5 Emma Grant COLL 1.69 4.63 2.89 9.21 5 Deni Varnhagen ADEL -0.30 5.34 4.07 9.10 5 Sarah Perkins ADEL 6.01 0.59 2.46 9.06 5 Lauren Spark WB 0.54 7.44 1.00 8.98 5 Danielle Hardiman CARL 0.84 7.00 0.92 8.75 4 Lily Mithen MELB 1.41 1.81 5.54 8.75 5 Meg Downie MELB 0.20 4.99 3.43 8.62 4 Meg Hutchins COLL 6.60 0.01 1.99 8.60 3 Erin Hoare MELB 3.52 -0.21 5.25 8.56 4 Bianca Jakobsson MELB 0.40 5.07 3.04 8.51 5 Lauren Brazzale CARL 2.73 1.31 4.39 8.43 4 Jessica Sedunary ADEL 3.65 1.26 3.50 8.41 5 Lauren Tesoriero COLL 2.71 1.93 3.55 8.18 4 Iilish Ross COLL -0.68 8.11 0.68 8.11 5 Rheanne Lugg ADEL 1.52 4.40 2.11 8.02 4 Arianna Clarke BL 0.46 6.00 1.52 7.97 5 Tilly Lucas-Rodd CARL 1.05 4.52 2.36 7.93 4 Alex Williams FRE 0.26 6.84 0.69 7.79 5 Aimee Schmidt GWS 4.93 0.64 2.05 7.62 4 Brianna Davey CARL 0.84 4.80 1.73 7.36 2 Tanya Hetherington GWS -0.52 7.48 0.21 7.17 5 Hayley Wildes WB 2.43 1.99 2.70 7.12 4 Jasmyn Hewett ADEL 2.21 3.71 1.03 6.95 5 Marijana Rajcic ADEL 0.91 3.81 1.96 6.68 3 Emma Humphries MELB 2.01 2.07 2.50 6.58 3 Katherine Gillespie-Jones CARL 1.37 3.80 1.37 6.53 4 Stacey Barr FRE 4.46 0.65 1.39 6.50 4 Jasmine Grierson MELB 1.41 3.00 1.96 6.36 4 Isabel Huntington WB 5.73 -0.49 0.78 6.02 2 Lauren Arnell CARL 3.15 0.67 2.00 5.82 3 Harriet Cordner MELB 1.31 1.47 3.01 5.79 2 Sophie Conway BL 4.78 -0.53 1.43 5.68 3 Leah Mascall FRE 1.31 2.17 2.01 5.50 5 Jessica Allan ADEL 2.21 2.60 0.59 5.40 4 Sophie Casey COLL 0.34 3.96 1.00 5.30 3 Sarah D'Arcy COLL 3.05 0.59 1.66 5.30 3 Georgia Bevan ADEL 1.52 2.52 1.23 5.27 4 Catherine Phillips MELB 0.20 1.65 3.32 5.18 5 Renee Tomkins GWS 0.84 2.94 1.08 4.86 2 Jodie White FRE 2.10 1.04 1.51 4.64 4 Emily McGuire FRE 3.22 0.45 0.84 4.51 3 Renee Forth GWS 0.26 1.60 2.62 4.47 4 Stacey Livingstone COLL 0.00 3.59 0.83 4.42 2 Georgia Gee CARL 1.47 1.11 1.78 4.37 4 Alyssa Mifsud MELB 3.42 -0.03 0.95 4.34 2 Kate Shierlaw CARL 2.68 0.13 1.50 4.31 4 Abbey Holmes ADEL 2.43 1.29 0.50 4.22 3 Madeleine Boyd GWS 0.19 2.69 0.97 3.85 2 Eliza Hynes COLL 2.12 0.19 1.52 3.82 2 Tara Morgan COLL -0.34 3.91 0.14 3.71 2 Ruby Schleicher COLL -1.35 4.63 0.34 3.62 4 Kim Rennie WB 2.02 0.20 1.38 3.60 2 Anna Teague MELB 0.40 2.79 0.21 3.40 2 Maddy Collier GWS 0.52 2.15 0.71 3.38 2 Deanna Berry WB 0.54 0.86 1.93 3.34 3 Anne Hatchard ADEL 2.13 0.70 0.44 3.27 2 Brooke Patterson MELB 0.40 1.78 1.00 3.19 3 Jodie Hicks GWS 0.78 0.55 1.84 3.17 4 Sally Riley ADEL 1.22 1.07 0.86 3.15 2 Gemma Houghton FRE 0.92 1.22 0.74 2.88 2 Bailey Hunt WB 0.54 2.09 0.23 2.87 3 Natalie Plane CARL 0.21 1.63 0.99 2.83 2 Laura Bailey WB 1.35 0.10 1.23 2.68 2 Talia Radan ADEL -0.61 3.16 0.01 2.57 2 Kirsten McLeod WB 0.81 0.66 1.04 2.52 2 Bree White COLL -0.68 1.85 1.21 2.38 3 Isabella Ayre BL 0.91 0.23 1.10 2.24 3 Brianna Green FRE 0.53 1.00 0.70 2.23 1 Tayla McAuliffe FRE 0.33 0.84 0.83 2.00 1 Tiah Haynes FRE 0.00 1.79 0.15 1.94 1 Courtney Webb CARL 0.42 0.54 0.94 1.90 2 Madeline Keryk CARL 0.00 1.48 0.36 1.84 1 Sophie Armitstead ADEL 0.00 0.59 1.21 1.80 2 Maddy Guerin MELB 0.40 0.00 1.37 1.77 1 Sarah Dargan COLL 0.00 0.99 0.68 1.67 3 Eden Zanker MELB 1.10 -0.03 0.59 1.66 1 Holly Whitford COLL -0.34 0.43 1.54 1.63 3 Emma Mackie WB 0.81 0.56 0.23 1.61 2 Megan Hunt BL 0.23 0.60 0.77 1.60 1 Rachael Killian ADEL 0.30 0.91 0.34 1.55 2 Daria Bannister WB 0.81 -0.03 0.77 1.54 1 Reni Hicks CARL -0.21 1.41 0.31 1.50 4 Claudia Whitfort MELB 0.40 0.05 0.77 1.23 1 Bridie Kennedy CARL 0.00 1.16 0.05 1.22 2 Sarah Last CARL 0.21 0.69 0.13 1.03 2 Gabby Collingwood BL 0.00 0.53 0.35 0.88 4 Philippa Smyth GWS 0.06 0.54 0.26 0.87 1 Emma Pittman BL 0.23 0.04 0.49 0.76 1 Katie-Jayne Grieve CARL 0.00 0.25 0.36 0.61 1 Rebecca Privitelli GWS -0.26 0.03 0.17 -0.06 1 Louise Stephenson GWS -0.52 0.03 0.42 -0.07 2 Jade de Melo FRE -0.26 -0.06 0.08 -0.24 1 Jessica Anderson WB -0.27 -0.07 -0.02 -0.36 1

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