It hadn’t even got to 11pm before the campaign post-mortems and leadership speculation began.

On the Coalition side.

I confess: sitting on the Sky News election desk, I could barely believe the booth results as they started coming in. I had expected it to be close; I had even (bravely) predicted a hung parliament. But if I am honest, I had been dreading the election night desk duty just a little, expecting to spend my time explaining why Labor was not picking up enough seats in western Sydney.

In fact, I had expected that I would need to answer questions about the future of Bill Shorten’s leadership.

Instead, before either party leader had addressed their party faithful, Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership was under question, and the blue on blue violence was underway. Cory Bernardi was arguing with Mark Textor on Twitter, Peta Credlin was calling the double dissolution a strategic mistake, and Andrew Bolt was demanding Turnbull resign.

How did this happen?

'Jobs and growth' isn’t a plan, it’s a list.

Let’s start with an uninspiring and tactically foolish campaign from the Coalition. The proposed company tax cuts never excited the electorate, no matter how exciting it is to be alive in these times.

The Coalition’s superannuation policy divided its party faithful and disappointed their donors.

The predicted scare campaigns from the Coalition – on negative gearing, on border security, on unions, and on election costings – never materialised.

And Malcolm Turnbull, having seized the prime ministership, never seized the economic leadership as he promised to do. Turnbull’s economic narrative was incoherent, flip flopping between increasing the GST, allow the state to levy income taxes, fixing bracket creep, and giving companies a tax break.

His campaign slogan didn’t even include a verb, for goodness’ sake. “Jobs and growth” isn’t a plan, it’s a list.

Turnbull’s campaign events were orchestrated, low-risk, and low-key. Look at the Coalition’s campaign launch: I’ve been to christenings with more people in attendance and wakes with more enthusiasm. He never seemed to actually fight for the job; rather he sat back waiting for the people to elect him.

On the Labor side, Bill Shorten was near flawless.

He is in excellent physical and mental shape. And this matters. Bob Carr used to say that leadership is physically, emotionally and intellectually draining. When I got there, I understood what he meant. Bill Shorten was ready on all levels for the fight.

Shorten fought on policies. Arguably, he had little option, given the “sun king” aura that Malcolm Turnbull exhibited in his first few months in the job. Taking the prime minister on in a popularity contest was not going to work. Shorten and Labor bravely took on the conventional wisdom in Australian politics that oppositions should only run small target campaigns. The gamble appears to have paid off.

Labor also pitched its message well. We saw it in the first of the people’s forums, which undecided voters gave to Bill Shorten. In the aftermath, conservative commentators complained that the questions were all in Bill Shorten’s area of comfort. Surprise, surprise! Turnbull talked about company tax cuts and the ethereal concept of “growth”. Bill Shorten and Labor talked about the issues that voters care about: education, health, childcare, and climate change.

When it comes to scare campaigns, it’s a bit rich to hear moaning from the people who threatened $100 lamb roasts

Let me also say this about Labor’s supposed “scare campaign” on Medicare. The prime minister was so outraged about it that he thundered, on election night, that the police would be called in! (This made Turnbull look unhinged and un-prime ministerial. He should have left such claims to his special minister for state or attorney general.) On this “scare campaign”, the Coalition ought to have a Bex and a lie down. They did freeze the bulk billing rebate. They did raise fees on pathology and radiology. They did raise the cost of medicines. They did have a task force to privatise the Medicare billing system. They did privatise Medibank. They did try to charge a co-payment for all GP visits.

And when it comes to scare campaigns, it’s a bit rich to hear moaning from the people who threatened $100 lamb roasts, the wipe out of Whyalla and the dangers of a debt and deficit disaster. Especially when, on their watch, one of Whyalla’s steel works was wiped out, the deficit doubled, and the debt blew out by $100bn.

It is also worth noting the Brexit/Trump factor. That is, not that Australian voters really care about either, but the Australian electorate is not immune to the anti-establishment, anti-government mood taking hold in our first-cousin nations. The “other” vote in Australia was high, and buoyed by small parties’ dissatisfaction with the new Senate voting system. In preference deals, Labor certainly benefited.

Labor did make mistakes. With all its savings measures, Labor should have found a way to match or beat the Coalition with its projected deficit in the forward estimates. For the sake of the party, Victorian Labor premier, Daniel Andrews, should have shut the Country Fire Association issue down.

A tale of two speeches: frustration boiled over at wait for testy Turnbull Read more

But Labor’s mistakes pale in comparison to those made by the Coalition. Let’s remember how far ahead Turnbull was in the months immediately after he took over the leadership: he led by 10 point margins in some polls. His approval rating was stratospheric. Bill Shorten wallowed in a 14% approval rating. The polls wrote him off, most commentators wrote him off, and certainly the Coalition wrote him off. But Shorten dug in, spoke to his core convictions, and ignored the conventional wisdom. He was dogged, he was determined and he was authentic. Meanwhile, the electorate kept waiting for the real Malcolm Turnbull to turn up.

Government likely won’t be decided for days. It may be the case that Turnbull wins the election, but he has lost the war. His mandate is gone. His party is fractured and frustrated. He can truly be held hostage by a handful of renegade conservatives in his caucus. His double dissolution legislation will fail. His company tax cuts appear doomed. His budget zombie measures will not come back to life. And his promise of stable government is shot.

We don’t know the result, but we know the outcome: Bill Shorten was barely scratched. Malcolm Turnbull got a spear in his side. Let’s watch and see how fast the blood gushes.