AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Minority leader Nancy Pelosi is unlikely to become Speaker next November

A new CNN-ORC International poll released this morning finds the advantage that the Democratic Party gained in the aftermath of the government shutdown has reversed entirely.

In October, Democrats had a 50%-42% lead among registered voters in the generic congressional ballot. Today, Republicans have a 49%-44% advantage — a 13-point swing in two months.

This comes after a rough couple of months for Democrats with Obamacare — the catastrophic launch of the website and President Barack Obama's "if you like your plan, you can keep it" lie. Many Democrats repeated that line from the president as well and are now also dealing with the consequences of it. President Obama's approval rating is also at historic lows.

One important factor in midterm elections is the ability of each party to get their members to vote. Historically, Republicans have had an advantage here. The CNN-ORC poll finds the trend is the same this time, with 36% of Republicans saying they are enthusiastic about voting compared to 22% of Democrats.

Finally, Obama seems to be holding back Democratic candidates as well. Fifty-five percent say they are more likely to vote for a candidate that opposes the president's policies.





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