Something has been puzzling me for 20 years and I think that, just this week, I’ve worked it out. Allow me to take you through it. I think it helps with understanding the politics of Brexit and why the political hopes of many Remainers are likely to be disappointed.

Two decades ago, I spent April living in a house round the corner from the office. I got up at five in the morning and never got to bed before midnight. The rest of the time I spent trying to help John Major beat Tony Blair in the 1997 election. Nothing we did worked. Would it be as bad for the Tories as 1945? As 1906 even? It was as bad as 1832.

The core of