Andrew Bolt must surely be in the running to be Australia’s most incompetent journalist. In Andrew’s mind, the recent floods somehow discredit the science supporting global warming:

“… First, warmists have insisted for years that the drought – which affected large parts of now-flooded Queensland – was in fact evidence of global warming, and we should expect fewer dam-filling rains…”

He then reproduces this graph as “evidence”, hinting there is nothing abnormal about the rains in a historical context:

This somehow proves there global warming “is a fiction”. I mean, just look at the graph – it goes up and down!

“What’s changed huh warmists!?!?!”

He then pointedly asks:

(Incidentally, does that rainfall record above indicate reveal any recent trend that seems to you evidence of “climate change”?)

Does Andrew have a point?

The graph is an average for Eastern Austrlia only. Not the whole of Austrlia, just part of the continent. It tells of nothing or rainfall distribution across Australia.

So let’s look average rainfall across Australia, but smooth out the data by looking at it in 15 year intervals if it helps us see any trends:

Note that you get slight “hockey stick” effect… well not really, but almost. On average we have the same amount of rain falling over the last 100 years or so.

But what matters is where it is falling.

The following time series maps show how the distribution of rainfall has changed over the last 100 years. I did this back in March, but it’s worth showing again.

I’ve taken the same source data as Andrew but reproduced it as time series maps. I’ve also shortened the data range in order to see if there are any emergent trends.

Here is the average distribution of rainfall over Australia for the 1900-2010 period:

Let’s jump ahead a few decades and look at the average for the 1950-2010 period. Note how rainfall patterns are starting to change…

Let’s jump forward a few decades: ﻿

1970-2010 As the CSIRO noted in the “State of the Climate Report” last year:

“While total rainfall on the Australian continent has been relatively stable, the geographic distribution of rainfall has changed significantly over the past 50 years. Rainfall decreased in south-west and south-east Australia, including all the major population centres, during the same period…”

And that:

“…[The] Trend over five decades of increasing rainfall in many parts of northern and central Australia (see map)”

Rain is more intense in some areas – thus confusing Andrew – but decreasing in many areas of Australia. All of this is line with the argument the world’s climate is undergoing a rapid change.

As I pointed out many, many months ago Andrew can’t even read a map.

Surely, Andrew Bolt’s “Hockey Schtick” rivals the other great hockey sticks in science:

Data and information without context is just noise… you need to look at the total picture. So when Andrew suggests his graph show’s no evidence of climate change, he has inadvertanlty demonstrated it has!

Is Bolt incompetent, or just plain dishonest?

Which is worse?