Poll shows how Gillum can surge

A Change Research Poll released Wednesday shows a surge for Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum in the race for the governor’s nomination of the Florida Democratic Party.

An initial online survey of registered Democrats found Philip Levine in the lead with Gillum and Gwen Graham tied for second and Chris King far behind.

But after being presented with a positive message and picture of each candidate an “Informed Ballot” survey was conducted Gillum shot to the lead of the race, followed by Graham, Levine, Unsure and King.

Change Research conducted the survey of 1,107 likely Democratic primary voters last week. The company was formed after the 2016 election to provide innovative polls to down-ballot candidates with limited resources and “deeper, more frequent dives into public opinions for bigger races," according to its website.

It has produced mixed results.

Change Research surveys closely tracked the rise of Democrat Doug Jones in an Alabama Senate race in December but fell short of correctly calling the contest. It documented a surge by Republican Corey Stewart in a Virginia primary last year, and has nearly matched the results in Congressional special elections.

In the Initial question, when asked if the Democratic primary for Florida Governor were held today respondents said:

Unsure 52 percent

Philip Levine 20

Andrew Gillum 13

Gwen Graham 13

Chris King 3

But after being exposed to a candidate’s message and photo the results were:

Gillum 35 percent

Graham 23

Levine 20

Unsure 13

King 10

Change, which bills itself as Polling for the People, attempted to match the makeup of the 2016 presidential vote. To create a representative sample of voters the poll used a demographic breakdown of 55 percent White respondents, 30 percent African-American, 11 percent Hispanic and 4 percent other.

More than 50 percent of the respondents said they had never heard of Gillum (55 percent), Graham (53) or King (65). Levine, who has blanketed television with introduction commercials was unknown by 41 percent of respondents.

The survey margin of error was 2.9 percent.