th last year in both standard and PPR scoring, has had no offseason injuries or setbacks, has all 5 linemen returning, and has had no outside RB threats added to his roster. Yet, without fail, all of my rankings had him as a fringe RB1 or even a high RB2. This player was Justin Forsett. When doing my RB rankings for this season, there was 1 player in particular who kept frustrating me. This person finished 8last year in both standard and PPR scoring, has had no offseason injuries or setbacks, has all 5 linemen returning, and has had no outside RB threats added to his roster. Yet, without fail, all of my rankings had him as a fringe RB1 or even a high RB2. This player was Justin Forsett.

th RB, with a best ranking of 8th, a worst ranking of 29th, and an average ranking of 12.1. Maybe it is because he is 30. Maybe it is because he had been in the league for 6 seasons before his breakout season last year, and he had been fantasy relevant in none of those seasons. Maybe it is because he seems too small, too fragile. Whatever the reason may be, with everyone's rankings coming out, he rarely seems to be in the top 10 at his position. According to Fantasy Pros , a website which aggregates the top fantasy rankings on the internet, he is ranked as the 11RB, with a best ranking of 8, a worst ranking of 29, and an average ranking of 12.1.

as fresh as any of these players, if not more. Therefore, his age shouldn’t be a problem, and his previous fantasy irrelevance can easily be spun as a positive. As far as worrying about his size and injury “risk”, Forsett has played all 16 regular season games in 5 of his 7 seasons in the NFL, and 14 or more games in 6 of 7 seasons, so it isn’t like injuries are something he has constantly battled (although I almost assuredly just jinxed him). For all of the negatives listed above, however, there are valid responses which essentially nullify those arguments. Yes he has been in the league a long while, hasn’t necessarily been fantasy relevant in prior seasons, and is turning 30. The good part about that is that he only has 582 career carries. Compare that to 2054 career carries for Adrian Peterson, 2033 for Marshawn Lynch, 1817 for Matt Forte, 1461 for Lesean McCoy, 1287 for Jamaal Charles, and 392 carries for DeMarco Murray last year alone. All of these are players currently ranked ahead of Forsett, and, in football terms, he should be at leastfresh as any of these players, if not more. Therefore, his age shouldn’t be a problem, and his previous fantasy irrelevance can easily be spun as a positive. As far as worrying about his size and injury “risk”, Forsett has played all 16 regular season games in 5 of his 7 seasons in the NFL, and 14 or more games in 6 of 7 seasons, so it isn’t like injuries are something he has constantly battled (although I almost assuredly just jinxed him).

Another reason people may be shying away from Forsett is they are worried about the change in scheme with new OC Marc Trestman. Often times a RB may flourish in one coach's offensive scheme, but struggle to find his footing in another. This could especially be true given the vast stylistic differences between a typical Kubiak offense and a typical Trestman offense. While that may be a valid to point to bring up, what should not be overlooked is the anticipated increase in usage of the RBs in the passing game in Trestman's offense. In 11 of the 12 seasons that Trestman has been either an offensive coordinator or head coach, his lead back has averaged at least 3.1 catches per game. Justin Forsett’s 2.8 catches per game would have been the second lowest by any starting RB in a Trestman offense. This means that Forsett’s receiving numbers will almost inevitably go up. Those numbers could go up a lot, considering 6 of those 12 seasons, Trestman's lead back recorded at least 72 receptions. Combine that with Forsett’s more than capable receiving chops (44 receptions a year ago), and his lack of competition (the next closest RB was Taliaferro, who had 8 receptions), and suddenly t all signs point towards a huge role the passing game for Forsett.

th ranked RB in standard leagues last year, and 9th in PPR leagues. So while the rushing is definitely limited in Trestman’s scheme, he no doubt makes up for it in other areas. There is also an argument that Forsett already shouldered a relatively small load last year (for an RB1) at only 235 carries, and Trestman tends to limit his RBs rushing touches compared to other OCs. That could mean a drop in rushes for Forsett, which would obviously hurt his fantasy value. This is a valid statement, considering Trestman’s RBs have historically averaged 12.9 rush attempts per game, and Forsett averaged 14.7 a year ago. The counter argument, as you may have guessed, is that the backs typically more than make up for lost production in the run game with their gained production in the pass game. For example, Trestman’s RBs average (using per-game averages extrapolated out to a 16 game season, to account for injuries) 199 rushes/790 yards/5 TDs in the rush game and 62 catches/501 yards/2 TDs in the pass game. While those are definitely paltry rushing numbers, the combined stats would still have been good for the 11ranked RB in standard leagues last year, and 9in PPR leagues. So while the rushing is definitely limited in Trestman’s scheme, he no doubt makes up for it in other areas.

th. The third, and most likely scenario, is that year 1 of the Trestman era looks like a blend of his short-to-intermediate passing game usage for RBs, combined with Kubiak’s zone rushing scheme. In fact, this is what both ESPN and Rotoworld have reported the Ravens offense is looking like thus far in camp. This, of course, makes sense, given that the Raven’s ranked 8th in the run game a year ago and are returning all 5 starters on the line - why would they mess with a good thing? Given this fact, I put together what I think is a realistic line for Forsett in 2015. This line includes Forsett’s 2014 totals in rushing - with a slight recession (15%) to allow for a new scheme, the advancement in year 2 for Taliaferro, a possible injury, etc - and the 12 year receiving averages from Trestman’s RBs (which Forsett could easily surpass, but for argument’s sake, I am picking the average) This combined line would look like this: What, then, is a valid ranking for Justin Forsett in his first year under OC Marc Trestman? There are a few possible scenarios. The first is that the entire offensive scheme is transformed over night to look like the Bears from the last two years, and Forsett scores like a slightly poor-mans Matt Forte. As previously stated, this would rank him in the 9-11 area. The second possibility is that Trestman changes none of the run scheme, keeping Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme completely in tact. This would mean Forsett’s 2015 would look a lot like his 2014 – placing him around 8. The third, and most likely scenario, is that year 1 of the Trestman era looks like a blend of his short-to-intermediate passing game usage for RBs, combined with Kubiak’s zone rushing scheme. In fact, this is what both ESPN and Rotoworld have reported the Ravens offense is looking like thus far in camp. This, of course, makes sense, given that the Raven’s ranked 8in the run game a year ago and are returning all 5 starters on the line - why would they mess with a good thing? Given this fact, I put together what I think is a realistic line for Forsett in 2015. This line includes Forsett’s 2014 totals in rushing - with a slight recession (15%) to allow for a new scheme, the advancement in year 2 for Taliaferro, a possible injury, etc - and the 12 year receiving averages from Trestman’s RBs (which Forsett could easily surpass, but for argument’s sake, I am picking the average) This combined line would look like this:

· 200 rushes 200 rushes

· 1,076 rushing yards 1,076 rushing yards

· 7 rushing TDs 7 rushing TDs

· 62 receptions 62 receptions

· 501 receiving yards 501 receiving yards

· 2 receiving TDs 2 receiving TDs

th RB in fantasy last year. This would also increase his PPR total to 261.8 points, good for 7th a year ago. If you want to assume his rushing success doesn’t regress at all, then he would finish with 226 points and 287.8 points in PPR, good for 6th and 5th respectively. This line would give Forsett a total of 199.8 fantasy points, which would have been good enough to be the 9RB in fantasy last year. This would also increase his PPR total to 261.8 points, good for 7a year ago. If you want to assume his rushing success doesn’t regress at all, then he would finish with 226 points and 287.8 points in PPR, good for 6and 5respectively.

was – hope you didn’t draft him already!) . Taking Forsett as the 8 th or 9 th RB off the board and at the top of the second seems about right to me . However, I also wouldn’t reach for him, because as I said before, his ceiling isn’t as high as most of the RBs ranked [rightfully] ahead of him. At his current ADP ( Fantasy Football Calculator ) - RB 12 and the 11 th pick in the second round – he is a good value pick as a no frills, low risk [relatively low ceiling] RB1. After doing my research on him, this range seems like the sweet spot for me. Forsett just isn’t going to have the rushing numbers to be in the elite RB tier with Bell, Charles, Peterson, etc, and this is why it was hard for me to have him in the top 10. But him not being elite doesn't mean I was right to question his spot in the top 10. He should be more than capable of being in the thick of things in the second tier, and he has considerably less risk than most other RBs who are going around him (as Foster– hope you didn’t draft him already!)





StatNerd Out,Eric M.@ericmcdonald7@SportsCloset