Massachusetts Congressional Districts

Delegate mathematics in Massachusetts. The vote share thresholds and their impact on delegate allocation is discussed here. Previously we covered Iowa-Mathematics, New-Hampshire-Delegate-Mathematics and Virginia-Delegate-Mathematics. Also a big shout out to rugbymom for encouraging me to put up Massachusetts mathematics.

Basic Information: here are in total, 91 delegates available from Massachusetts. Delegates are allocated according to proportional allocation rules. Massachusetts has 9 Congressional districts. So including the state-wide allocations of PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and at-large delegates there are 11 allocation units. Maximum available delegates are as follows: 6 delegates each from CD1, CD2, CD3 and CD4 :: 7 delegates each from CD5, CD6, CD7, CD8 AND CD9 :: Further 12 PLEO and 20 at-large delegates from statewide results. The primary voting is open to register voters who are party members and independent voters not registered with any party.

Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for achieving delegates on congressional districts based allocations are listed below. The table below shows the delegate allocation thresholds and triggers for size 6 and size 7 districts.

Delegates acquired out of available 6 Del cd1, cd2, cd3, cd4 7 del cd5, cd6, cd7, cd8, cd9 Delegate Allocation Threshold/Triggers 0 del less than 15% less than 15% 1 del 15 15 2 del 25 21.4 3 del 41.7 35.7 4 del 58.3 50 5 del 75 64.3 6 del 85 78.6 7 del 85

Virtual Guarantee of 1 Delegate Every District: No one is going to be able to maintain a clean sweep of all delegates. That would require 85% in the relevant Congressional districts. For both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders 1 delegate is guaranteed in every allocating district as long as they score 15% votes. If would be pretty dire and hard for one of them not score 15%. Even just with set in stone Clinton voters and equally set in stone anti-Clinton voters, there would be enough delegates for all.

For 6 Delegates at CD1, CD2, CD3 and CD4: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. Even in candidates home states and districts we have not yet seen this kind of support. It is probable that sanders can achieve 58% support to grab extra delegates. This being Massachusetts and assuming a very strong Sanders advantage, neighour, Elizabeth Warren impact, a 4-2 split seems likely but there will be no complete wipe out.

For 7 Delegates at CD5, CD6, CD7, CD8 AND CD9: Since these have an odd number of delegates, Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. 6-1 split happens at 78.6. Again this is an unlikely scenario. Question is will Sanders be able to cross the threshold of 64.3% to force a 5-2 split or will he have to be satisfied with 4-3 split.

Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 12 PLEOs and 20 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available also means that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.

For 12 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below.) Roughly 8.3% votes translates to 1 delegate. Third delegate at 20.9%. subsequent delegates cost 8.3% each. Any vote share between 45.9% and 54.2% will result in a (6-6) delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 54.2% results in two delegate advantage (7-5). The next trigger at 62.5% for (8-4) split and a (9-3) split at 70.9%. If poll numbers are hovering around the triggers then any campaign effort would make an impact. In the table below, only some interesting triggers range for PLEOs are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.

Vote Share % 15 20.9 29.2 37.5 45.9 54.2 62.5 70.9 79.2 Delegate Allocation Triggers - PLEOs PLEO (del 12) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Corresponding At-Large (Del 20) 3 4 6 8 9 11 13 15 16

For 20 State-wide (at-large) delegates: (See table below.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Exactly 5% votes translates to 1 delegate. {Ahh it feels good to for once not have to say roughly blah blah}. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 17.5%. Subsequently every 5% gives an extra delegate. Between 47.5%-52.5% delegates split even (10-10). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. . Crossing 52.5% results in (11-9) split. Only some interesting triggers range are listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.

Vote Share % 15 17.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5 67.5 Delegate Allocation Triggers - AT-Large Delegates At-Large (del 20) 3 4 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Corresponding PLEO (Del 12) 2 2 5 5 6 6 7 8 8

Some of the triggers are shared triggered points due to exact 3:5 ratio of PLEO and at-large delegate number. The triggers at 37.5 and 62.5 both give extra delegate advantage in both categories.

Next bit is my personal opinion: In Massachusetts, the Mecca of liberals, the Medina of progressives, the Camelot, the playgrounds of progressive icons, I expect Sanders to successfully break every 6 delegate district in his own favour 4-2 split. In 7 delegate districts, play very hard towards 5-2 split. Thereby giving Sanders a resounding 41 — 18 split advantage from districts.

On a statewide 32 delegates, with same ratios expecting (12-8) and (7-5) split favouring Sanders. Totals from whole state, easily from there 61 — 30. Anything less for Sanders would be a bit disappointing.

If Clinton manages any more than 30 would be a big bonus for Clinton. I expect Clintons to do extra push in districts with 7 seats. If they can reduce the advantage to under 64.28% then that chips heavily into sanders by making the district break only 4-3. Expect a lot of Clinton surrogates in CD5 trough to CD9.

Enjoy and do not fret too much.

Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary

Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.