For voters who care deeply about progressive policies and values in Ontario, it’s not too early to start thinking about how to stop Doug Ford from becoming the province’s next premier.

With a series of polls showing Ford-led Conservatives headed for a majority victory, voters who normally support the Liberals, New Democrats or Green Party are facing a tough personal decision — to vote for their favourite party or vote strategically for the candidate who has the best chance of defeating the Tory candidate in their riding.

It’s a critical moment for these voters who, to the delight of Ford Nation fans, are deeply distressed at the prospect of a Ford victory.

Progressive voters fear that if Ford wins the June 7 election, he likely will move quickly to dismantle, gut or sideline many of the socially progressive programs put in place over the past 15 years.

Indeed, they foresee a replay of the Mike Harris regime, during which Ontario paid a huge price in weakened social services, cutbacks in hospitals and schools and sweeping tax cuts that to this day still adversely affect the province’s ability to properly fund essential programs.

Unlike Ford, progressives share a belief in bringing people together, strengthening our social programs and finding the right balance between sound fiscal management and forward-looking policies.

In Ford, though, they see a my-road-or-the-highway politician who deliberately and cynically turns people against one another, creates scapegoats in “elites” and who threatens to reopen divisive debates on abortion, sex-ed curriculum, social equity and help for welfare recipients.

At this stage, it’s obvious that neither the Liberals, NDP nor Greens have much hope of leading even a minority government. In fact, both the Liberals and NDP stand a good chance of losing enough seats to give the Conservatives a huge majority.

That’s why every anti-Ford vote counts.

Still, there’s little evidence Liberals, NDPers and Greens are ready — at least for now — to set aside their own differences and support who they see as the strongest non-Tory in their ridings.

That’s despite the fact both the Liberals and NDP are pushing progressive policies that are so similar as to be virtually indistinguishable. For example, the Liberals are promoting pharmacare for seniors, free post-secondary tuition for many students and $15-an-hour minimum wage. The NDP is proposing free dental care for everyone, universal pharmacare, more money for home care and converting post-secondary student loans to grants.

In the past, the issue of strategic voting has been called an affront to democracy, especially by conservative voices.

That was especially true in the 2010 Toronto mayoral election won by Rob Ford and in the 2014 Toronto mayor’s race in which Doug Ford lost to John Tory. However, those same conservatives ignore the fact Stephen Harper was the biggest champion of strategic voting in his unite-the-right merger between the Reform Party and Progressive Conservatives.

The good news for Ford is that strategic voting rarely works.

Over the years, strategic voting has played a part in a number of Canadian elections. But researchers have estimated the role is small in federal and provincial elections, affecting only about 5 per cent of votes. That’s because most voters see their preferred candidate as more competitive than that of another party and thus won’t abandon their choice for a candidate they perceive as less competitive.

Also, neither the Liberals under Wynne nor the NDP under Andrea Horwath really like each other or the idea of strategic voting. The Liberals believe they can pull off another election-day comeback miracle as they did in 2007 and 2014.

Meanwhile, New Democrats are buoyed by some polls that put them in second place, which would mean they would become the official opposition at Queen’s Park after the election.

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Ultimately, by splitting the progressive vote, the Liberals, NDP and Greens will be ensuring a Ford victory. Fighting amongst themselves over pharmacare, student tuition, health-care spending and hydro rates will only detract from the real election issue for progressives — namely how best to save the caring Ontario they all say they want.

It’s why they must think hard about how they will vote on June 7.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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