As Marvel’s biggest film yet continues to dominate the market, this weekend will welcome a few more new releases aiming for a variety of audiences. Will the headlining opener be able to unseat the reigning weekend champ, though?

PROS:

Avengers: Endgame is likely to begin stabilizing its legs after the typical second weekend drop-off common to mega-openers. Infinity War itself eased 46 percent in its third frame one year ago, which was also Mother’s Day weekend.

is likely to begin stabilizing its legs after the typical second weekend drop-off common to mega-openers. Infinity War itself eased 46 percent in its third frame one year ago, which was also Mother’s Day weekend. Detective Pikachu should benefit from both its multi-generation appeal and the fact that it provides a shorter, PG-rated, family-friendly option for parents with kids too young for the Marvel epic. Final pre-release tracking positions interest comparable to recent films like Shazam!, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and The LEGO Batman Movie.

should benefit from both its multi-generation appeal and the fact that it provides a shorter, PG-rated, family-friendly option for parents with kids too young for the Marvel epic. Final pre-release tracking positions interest comparable to recent films like Shazam!, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and The LEGO Batman Movie. The Hustle is driven by stars Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson, both of whom are coming off strong female-driven franchise successes (Ocean’s 8 and the Pitch Perfect series, respectively). Pre-release tracking suggests the film is generating comparable interest as Life of the Party, which also opened on Mother’s Day weekend last year.

is driven by stars Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson, both of whom are coming off strong female-driven franchise successes (Ocean’s 8 and the Pitch Perfect series, respectively). Pre-release tracking suggests the film is generating comparable interest as Life of the Party, which also opened on Mother’s Day weekend last year. Poms will cater to older female moviegoers, a smart play in a market largely absent of films aiming for that audience. Again, Mother’s Day should provide a boost on Sunday.

will cater to older female moviegoers, a smart play in a market largely absent of films aiming for that audience. Again, Mother’s Day should provide a boost on Sunday. Tolkien, opening in semi-wide release, could appeal to die-hard fans of the author and The Lord of the Rings / Hobbit films. It has a fair shot to be Fox Searchlight’s best opener since 2016’s The Birth of a Nation ($7 million from 2,105 theaters) and 2015’s The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($8.5 million from 1,573 theaters).

CONS:

The biggest challenges for Pikachu appear to be its positioning in the shadow of Endgame — which will still be going strong and could top Avatar ($68.5 million) and/or Black Panther ($66.3 million) for the second or third highest third weekend ever.

appear to be its positioning in the shadow of Endgame — which will still be going strong and could top Avatar ($68.5 million) and/or Black Panther ($66.3 million) for the second or third highest third weekend ever. Additionally, tracking for Pikachu hasn’t quite excelled to the levels once expected in long range reports, and critics’ reviews — while mostly positive and indicative of potential staying power — haven’t struck at the high level typically conducive to a breakout on the optimistic end of forecasts.

hasn’t quite excelled to the levels once expected in long range reports, and critics’ reviews — while mostly positive and indicative of potential staying power — haven’t struck at the high level typically conducive to a breakout on the optimistic end of forecasts. The Hustle and Poms each lack critics’ reviews as of this report, and could face some crossover competition from the well-received Long Shot.

and each lack critics’ reviews as of this report, and could face some crossover competition from the well-received Long Shot. Tolkien is, unfortunately, receiving lukewarm reviews, while tracking for the semi-wide release has proven challenging given the limited scope of its marketing and distribution.

Weekend Ranges

Avengers: Endgame ($67 – 77 million)

($67 – 77 million) Detective Pikachu ($50 – 75 million)

($50 – 75 million) The Hustle ($13 – 18 million)

($13 – 18 million) Poms ($5 – 10 million)

($5 – 10 million) Tolkien ($3 – 8 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will increase approximately 41 – 46 percent from the same weekend last year. That comparable Mother’s Day frame was led by Infinity War‘s $62.1 million, ahead of Life of the Party‘s $17.9 million and Breaking In‘ $17.6 million debuts. The top ten that weekend generated $126.7 million.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 12 % Change from Last Wknd Avengers: Endgame Disney / Marvel $70,700,000 $731,400,000 -52% Pokémon: Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. $56,000,000 $56,000,000 NEW The Hustle United Artists Releasing $15,000,000 $15,000,000 NEW Poms STX $8,400,000 $8,400,000 NEW Long Shot Lionsgate / Summit $6,600,000 $20,000,000 -32% The Intruder Sony / Screen Gems $6,000,000 $20,000,000 -45% Tolkien Fox Searchlight $5,500,000 $5,500,000 NEW Uglydolls STX $4,200,000 $14,700,000 -51% Captain Marvel Disney / Marvel $3,000,000 $424,900,000 -31% Breakthrough Fox $2,900,000 $37,500,000 -26%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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