In a flurry of tweets and hastily published articles yesterday evening, beginning at around 20 past five, the unthinkable (or at least very unlikely) happened. News broke, via a reported scoop from the Daily Mail, that Watford were in advanced negotiations with Everton to sell Brazilian winger Richarlison to the Toffees for a fee somewhere between 40 and 50 million pounds. Given the current rancour between the two clubs, this seemed a rather far-fetched proposition, but as more outlets and journalists confirmed it, including those known to be close to the hierarchies of the clubs themselves, it became ever more real a prospect.

As of this morning, we are still in limbo, but with every major media outlet including Sky and the BBC reporting the deal as fact, amid suggestions that the player has left Watford’s training camp in Austria to negotiate the final stages of the deal in person on Merseyside. If it can be seen through, Everton will break their transfer record for the second time in a year, and Watford will break their outgoing record by more than double. The questions that remain: how did this come to pass? Should Watford allow it to?

In terms of the first, the acrimonious relationship between the two clubs meant that this link up had, until yesterday, seemed an impossibility. That’s thanks to the Marco Silva saga, in which Everton were accused of unsettling the Portuguese manager within the first 10 games of least season, returning again and again with offers that were consistently rebuffed and going behind the club’s back to speak to the 41-year-old without permission. During this period, the team’s form suddenly fell off a cliff; so badly so that eventually, Silva was relieved of his position by the Hornets, who went as far as laying the blame at the feet of the Blues’ clandestine pursuit in a public statement addressing his sacking. Since then, a complaint from the Hertfordshire club has led to the case being referred to the Premier League for arbitration; the results currently unknown, amidst tabloid rumours of compensation packages and differing valuations.

We can therefore see why rumours of Silva, finally named Everton manager having bided his time in the footballing shadows over the second half of the season, coming back in for his old players, were dismissed as tabloid fodder. An easy link to print with little substance. But then, miraculously, a spectacular volte-face. Watford were prepared to sit at the negotiating table! But why? how? The answer to that goes to the heart of our second fundamental question: should Watford allow Richy to go? At present, there are about £50m reasons to say yes.

The fee; an outlandish, obscene sum of money, is the single most compelling of those. Although it may stick in the craw of some Watford fans to be giving their newfound enemy exactly what they want, for the price they are getting it the consensus seems to be that they would would be happy to take him on a day trip and deposit him there themselves (something they may actually find themselves having their bluff called on, given Richy’s present inability to read the road signs that would direct him to Goodison Park).

In those halcyon days of late summer/early autumn 2017, when Richarlison was an almost unknown quantity; a 20-year-old straight from the Brazilian league, it briefly seemed as though Watford, for perhaps the second time in their history, had a genuine world-beater in training on the field. An upright, tricky but direct winger, and Brazilian; if anyone had any doubts over his technical ability, the overhead flick into nutmeg he employed to eviscerate Bournemouth right-back Adam Smith in Watford’s far-more-convincing-than-just-2:0 away victory by the seaside put paid to that.

But then things went a little sour. It’s a common misconception that our Richy went off the boil the minute Silva was dismissed. That the snake was also the snake charmer, and that it was only he who could get a tune out of this special talent. In reality, Richarlison, along with the rest of the team, had lost his mojo almost completely months before, when the rot that ended up costing the Coach his position first set in. After 5 goals in his first 3 months, he did not score or assist again after November, despite remaining a starter for almost the entirety of the season.

Now there is some mitigation for that: after his initial burst onto the scene, as someone the opposition had never seen before, his performances forced them to sit up and take notice. Two defenders were assigned him instead of one, and suddenly he was being forced down blind allies with alarming regularity. On top of that, thanks to the nature of the Brazilian league, running from May to December rather than the traditional European August to May, the attacker had not had any proper rest since the beginning of 2017, a time period that also included a trip to the u-20 World Cup with his national team. He was both young and exhausted, playing his first season ever outside his home country, without the benefit even of speaking the language. It’s hardly surprising he began to struggle.

Watford fans have been looking forward to seeing a finally recharged and fit Richarlison burst back onto the scene with more of the tricky, explosive wing play that he had exhibited at the start of his time with them. But despite that, the reality is this: £50m is a figure that Watford could realistically hope to get for the player if/when he fulfils his potential. Former Premier League Player of the Season and Premier League winner Riyad Mahrez was just sold for £60m. As long as the figure is around what is being reported (and it should be noted that Sky Sport’s Jim White, widely known as Everton owner Farhad Moshiri’s mouthpiece in the British media, has himself always reported it as £50m, rather than ’35 or 40 with add ons’ as some others have) Watford would be getting themselves the deal of the century by trading risk for potential.

Big breaking transfer news – source has revealed that @Everton have made a big money offer, £50million, for Richarlison after lengthy discussions with @WatfordFC. — Jim White (@JimWhite) July 20, 2018

It’s possible that Richarlison does have the potential to become a world class player. There were even rumblings of him being called up to a preliminary Brazil squad in light of his fantastic start to the 17/18 season. But as we saw over the second half of the season, he is a long way from those heights yet. He has a lot to learn, and a lot to prove, still. In paying £50m, Everton are buying that potential, but they are also taking on all of the risk. If he doesn’t reach every inch of that potential in real terms, then the fee will begin to take on an extortionate character, and they will be accused once again of overpaying for relatively mediocre players.

For a club of Watford’s size and prudence, they cannot afford to turn it down. That money could be used right now to improve several key positions, not just in their squad but in their starting XI. Silva clearly wants his young protege back by his side, and Watford certainly appear to want the financial rewards for facilitating the re-blossoming of that love story. As a transfer, whether it will or will not work for Everton very much remains to be seen. For Watford, the success will be the moment the wire transfer hits the club’s bank account, and the search for the next Richarlison begins anew.