Nail polish sales have broken all records in recent years, thanks in part to obsessive nail art enthusiasts. A pretty bottle of lacquer became the new instant pick-me-up, toppling the so-called "lipstick index" (a term coined by Estee Lauder to make sense of the increase in sales during a period of economic decline) as the most sought-after beauty product on the market. The nail polish category made $814 million so far this year up to November 23, an impressive stat, for sure, but a new report from Ad Age claims the nail craze is actually on its way out. Coty, the parent company for brands like OPI and Sally Hansen, report a 4 percent decline in sales in the third quarter of 2013, while L'Oreal's sales have dropped 10 percent and Revlon's dipped a whopping 13 percent in October and November.

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Why the sudden decline? Suzi Weiss-Fischmann, Executive VP/Artistic Director for OPI says it's only natural to lose momentum after such a big upswing. "The category has been growing for the past four or five years at 20 to 30 percent growth, which is, for any category, unsustainable," Weiss-Fischmann tells Yahoo Shine exclusively. "Now it's growing at maybe 3 to 5 percent." Despite the decline, she feels nail polish is still popular and innovations like gel polish have invigorated the industry. Perhaps ladies who were fanatical about constantly buying new colors and the latest finishes and effects kits now own everything they want and are satisfied -at least temporarily--with their collections. "I've read that the average consumer has 50 to 100 bottles of nail color. Now she's not going to buy 10 bottles, she'll buy one or two special seasonal colors. There is definitely some pull back, but she's still buying."

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Weiss-Fischmann says she's marveled at the new public forums that highlight the trend, from red carpet mani cams to Instagram "I have a 20-year-old daughter who Instagrams every design and color, and she gets so many likes! It's a generation that loves to share. It makes them into an individual." But the kitchy nail art of late, is disappearing. Weiss-Fischmann says a truly innovative item like Shatter, OPI's popular crackle topcoat, only comes along every 10 years or so. She also confirms something that's been echoed by manicurists backstage at Fashion Week for the last season or two: colorful, playful nail art is transitioning to more upscale nail design using modern geometric patterns in neutral colors or minimal accent nails. "At New York Fashion Week we did a lot of nude nails. BCBG and many designers wanted nude or matte, which gives an edgy look. Nail art in matte with a stripe is a great effect. Simplicity and sophistication is what we are looking for." The red carpets have certainly showcased this shift, too. "I do see celebrities wanting a classic shade for events, and I think they're following the same trend," says Weiss-Fischmann.

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Apparently what's old is new again. Cult classics like Essie's sheer pale pink Ballet Slippers are being dusted off and put back into circulation while brands like Clinique have launched collections of nail enamel that match every skin tone for a minimal effect. Weiss-Fischmann thinks this is a time when women are going back to their favorite color. "Everything is cyclical," she says. "In some things we want simplicity, and classic is in right now, in clothes and accessories." With OPI's massive inventory of shades, she herself has opted to wear her all-time fave, Big Apple Red, for the holiday season.

Sales may be down for some brands, but according to Ad Age, retailers Sephora and Ulta reported strong double-digit U.S. growth with estimated sales of over $2 billion each. Other brands are determined they'll remain on track. "We're certainly not panicked," says Weiss-Fischmann. "When the consumer pulls back she goes to the brand that she trusts."

For holiday nail inspiration check out the video below:

Related links:

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