If Ballarat was a body builder, it would be deep into its bulking stage.

Key points: Ballarat's population is expected to jump by one-third in next two decades

Ballarat's population is expected to jump by one-third in next two decades A researcher has warned the regional city could face "social disaster" if urban sprawl is mismanaged

A researcher has warned the regional city could face "social disaster" if urban sprawl is mismanaged The council wants more medium-density residential developments in the CBD and better public transport

The regional city's population is expected to bulge by a third, or almost 40,000 people, within the next two decades.

The number of dwellings in some outer western suburbs, previously home to paddocks and agriculture, is set to jump by as much as 926 per cent.

But as seen in Melbourne's sprawling outer western suburbs, growth on the fringe has consequences for the centre.

"If it isn't planned and developers just keep on dumping more and more people on the fringe, Ballarat is just going to end up with a social disaster on its hands," said Michael Buxton, Emeritus Professor of RMIT's Centre for Urban Research.

Urban sprawl outpaces infrastructure

Melbourne is Australia's fastest growing city, with more than 100,000 new residents moving there every year, and an expected population of 7.7 million by 2050.

Over the next four years the State Government plans to rezone 12 new suburbs on Melbourne's outer fringe for the construction of 50,000 new homes.

"The strategic plan for Melbourne, Plan Melbourne, really doesn't stipulate many controls over this kind of trend," Professor Buxton said.

"It's basically just leading to more of the same — tremendous outer urban expansion and rezoning of land by the government, which is really just putting more people into car-dependent suburbs."

But a 2018 Infrastructure Australia report found that 1.4 million people in the outer suburbs did not have frequent access to public transport services within walking distance of their home.

"It is almost entirely car-dependent development, [with] very poor heavy rail and other public transport [and] very poor bus services … there are relatively few jobs so this requires long distances by car," Professor Buxton said.

"You're adding to greenhouse gas emissions, you're a very environmentally unsustainable city as well as economically and socially unsustainable."

So what's the lesson for Ballarat?

Professor Buxton said the "easy option of just rezoning land on the fringe" needed to be curbed.

"There's a huge amount of land within the existing bounds of Ballarat … that is able to be built on," he said.

The number of dwellings in the Ballarat suburb of Delacombe is expected to increase by 135 per cent, or about 3,500 new properties, by 2036. ( Supplied: Nightingale Housing )

One possibility is Nightingale: a 27-unit development proposed in a CBD currently dominated by offices, restaurants and retail.

"We do need to accept that in order to house the projected increased population in Ballarat, that there'll need to be some densification," said Nightingale Housing's project lead Jennifer Kulas.

"The growth to the west of Ballarat city, what that actually spells is increasingly smaller lots, with houses taking up more of the space.

"It's farmland, arable land, becoming low-density housing."

Nightingale is an inner-city alternative that is the antithesis of the growing urban sprawl seen on the city's fringe and, if replicated en masse, could change the residential-commercial mix of central Ballarat.

Is Ballarat Central the next Brunswick?

Nightingale Housing has already developed an unconventional unit block in Brunswick, Melbourne, which is an example of what could be built in Ballarat.

Residents share a laundry and must be owner-occupiers rather than investors, they deal directly with the architects so there are no real estate agents, and there is a beehive on the roof and a yoga studio on the ground floor.

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"Residents are expected to sign a contract to the effect that they will not maintain private car ownership and therefore burden on-street car parking if they are to purchase in the development," Ms Kulas said.

But Ballarat's public transport options are limited compared to Melbourne, which means 14 car parks have been factored into the proposed design and residents would receive membership to a car-sharing service.

So will Ballarat embrace Nightingale's alternative lifestyle, or cast them back behind Brunswick's 'tofu curtain'?

"I can't speak to that yet, whether we have critical mass of interest, but there are certainly a lot of people in Ballarat that are interested in community, and they're interested in in ecological sustainability," Ms Kulas said.

Council eyes more CBD developments

The City of Ballarat's Director of Infrastructure and Environment, Terry Demeo, said the expansion of low-density housing to the west had been thoroughly planned.

But he also said "most of the development and change that Ballarat is experiencing would be infinitely better if we had a stronger public transport network".

An artist's impression of Nightingale's initial design for its proposed development on Davey Street, Ballarat. ( Supplied: Fiona Turnbull )

"It's not a local government service … the service is delivered by private operators under contract to Public Transport Victoria," Mr Demeo said.

"Medium-density, low rise, apartment-style living in central Ballarat" like Nightingale's proposal, fits in with council's vision for the CBD.

"It certainly does without prejudice to the fact that it is at the start of a planning process.

"I understand the application will be seeking a waiving of parking in part … that's a different outcome for Ballarat, it's certainly not unique from a Victoria-wide perspective but it's something we'll need to deal with in a planning point of view."

Price pressures push need for more supply

With Ballarat's property prices listed as "severely unaffordable" by the 2019 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey, the city's hunger for more low and medium-density housing is unlikely to wane.

"If you look at an aerial photograph of the new outer suburbs of in the west, north, and south eastern suburbs of Melbourne, and even in places like Ballarat, all you can see is a sea of roofs," Professor Michael Buxton said.

"Developers are putting the same size houses on ever smaller blocks. The challenge for future development is to design new subdivisions with a range of block sizes."

Nightingale Housing's project lead Jennifer Kulas says their proposed development for Ballarat's CBD has received significant interest. ( ABC Ballarat: Dominic Cansdale )

The Nightingale model however, represents not only a more eco-friendly design, but a different lifestyle expected of regional residents.

"The utopian ideal of a single family home on a quarter-acre block conceals now many of the harsh realities of the unsustainable reality of that model," Ms Kulas said.