Once upon a time, Dublin might have settled for a Brexit fudge. But events in Westminster since the referendum have steadily destroyed trust between the capitals.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's demand to change the Brexit deal, negotiated over two years by his predecessor Theresa May and the remaining 27 EU countries, has only hardened Dublin's commitment to it.

Britain's approach to the negotiations, exacerbated by a tumultuous political landscape in Westminster, and the breakdown of government in Northern Ireland, have soured relations, eroding the good faith that underpinned peace talks in the 1990s. As trust has trickled away, so too has the appetite to accommodate the shifting U.K. position, uniting Ireland's political class behind their red lines.

Most contentious is the so-called backstop, an insurance policy in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement designed to ensure no hard border ever emerges on the island of Ireland.

“We’re not just being asked to tweak it, to change it. We’re being asked to remove it completely. To take away a guarantee of peace, a guarantee to protect the Good Friday Agreement and everything that comes with it, take away a guarantee to protect our all-island economy, take away a guarantee that no border would emerge on the island,” Irish EU Affairs Minister Helen McEntee told POLITICO.

When Varadkar took office, his first foreign visit was to Downing Street, just five days into the job.

“All of those issues are so important to us. They’re important to the U.K., and they’ve said themselves that they’re committed to doing all of those things. So if that’s the case why are they asking us to remove it?”

The Irish government this week doubled down on its plans for a no-deal exit. For Ireland, giving in to British demands now would be accepting permanent negative consequences, while no deal would be terrible but temporary; and Britain will eventually have to accept the backstop — or something like it — if it ever wants a trade deal with the EU.

"Unfortunately, given political developments in the U.K., there is a significant and growing risk of no deal. We don’t wish to see a no-deal Brexit and we will continue our efforts to avoid one, but not at any cost," Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said Thursday. "Unlike some, I see no upsides to no deal. I do fear it. But I am prepared for it."

Not so 'Love Actually'

The depth to which British-Irish relations have fallen may be on display when Johnson travels to visit Varadkar in Dublin on Monday.

When Varadkar took office in June 2017, his first foreign visit was to Downing Street, just five days into the job.

“It’s my first time in this building so there’s a little thrill in it as well. We spoke on the way in and I was reminded of that famous scene in "Love Actually" when Hugh Grant does his dance down the stairs,” a visibly delighted Varadkar told a press conference back then.

Varadkar and Theresa May both spoke optimistically about achieving Brexit while maintaining the open border, protecting the Irish economy and peace. They even expressed hopes that the collapsed Northern Ireland administration could soon be back up and running.

“It is my first visit overseas and I really want to thank the prime minister for facilitating it at very short notice, but it does I think underline and emphasize the strength and closeness of the relationship that exists between our two countries,” Varadkar said.

By contrast, Johnson has spoken twice with Varadkar by phone since taking office. An unusually long time lapsed before he made the customary call to Dublin after becoming prime minister in July. The second was in the wake of a bomb attack in Fermanagh, a sign of worsening destabilization in Northern Ireland.

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney and U.K. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay clashed when then met last week in Paris. And while Downing Street has presented Johnson’s visit to Dublin as being part of Brexit negotiations, the Irish government has insisted it does not engage in bilateral talks on the U.K.'s exit.

Northern Ireland fault line

In talks with Brussels, the U.K. has indicated it wants to strip out much of what was agreed between May and the EU in December 2017.

EU27 diplomats have been briefed that the U.K.’s plan to strike out the backstop includes removing most of the parts of the Withdrawal Agreement that Ireland sees as guaranteeing the continued functioning of an all-Ireland economy. Asked by Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer on Thursday if he could confirm the government’s commitment to the joint report, a key document that served as the blueprint for negotiations about the Irish border, Barclay declined.

“The 2017 joint report was the foundation of a deal with the EU that would avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland,” Starmer told POLITICO. “The Brexit secretary’s refusal to stand by that agreement is deeply concerning and reveals the government’s willingness to backtrack on the solemn commitments it made to the people of Northern Ireland two years ago.”

While Westminster has been distracted by Johnson’s charge toward an election, the profound implications of the London-Dublin fault-line — particularly for Northern Ireland — are slowly beginning to surface.

Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith admitted to MPs that talks with political parties, brokered by London and Dublin, to restore power-sharing in Belfast are now running against the clock ahead of the U.K.’s October 31 departure date. In the event of any form of Brexit, but particularly no-deal, it would not be feasible for Northern Ireland to continue to be governed by civil servants alone, he said.

Patience also wore thin when it became apparent May was not always able to deliver on commitments her team had negotiated for in Brussels.

“They cannot take the proactive decisions that are needed on public services or the economy in the run-up to 31 October,” Smith said. “If we cannot secure the restoration of an [Northern Ireland] executive, we will pursue the decision-making powers that are needed at the earliest opportunity.”

That means some form of direct rule from London. Such a move, while viewed by Whitehall as a practical necessity given the prime minister’s Brexit stance, risks destabilizing an already tense political situation in Northern Ireland. Nationalist parties were quick to condemn Smith’s comments as signaling a “power grab” by the U.K. government.

What changed?

Dublin was initially optimistic about Brexit negotiations. The rhetoric in public statements coming from London was positive and the close result of the 2016 referendum was interpreted as an indication Britain would not pursue a hard break from the EU.

Over time, a series of events unpicked Dublin’s faith in London.

In her Lancaster House speech of January 2017, May adopted a much harder interpretation of Brexit than expected, committing to leaving the single market and customs union. Customs procedures would now be inevitable somewhere between Britain and Ireland.

May’s public statements increasingly appeared to countenance leaving without a deal at all. “No deal is better than a bad deal,” became her most memorable phrase.

Patience also wore thin when it became apparent May was not always able to deliver on commitments her team had negotiated for in Brussels because of domestic political pressure.

“You can’t enter into negotiations with an entire parliament, it’s simply not possible,” McEntee said. “The EU has negotiated this in good faith over two and a half years … you can’t keep shifting the goal posts, which is where we are now, in that we are being asked to essentially wipe the slate clean on two and a half years of negotiations … and replace it with nothing.”

Holding onto the backstop

Since the referendum, there has been cross-party collaboration on working to mitigate Brexit, in the spirit of confronting a national emergency. Irish parliamentary unity on Brexit remains near-total.

There is no opposition pressure to give in on the backstop. It helps that Varadkar’s Fine Gael party is in a governing arrangement with the largest opposition party, Fianna Fáil. But the current deal even enjoys support from Sinn Féin, normally the party most intractably opposed to Fine Gael.

“All parties, the EU, the Irish government and the Dáil [the lower house of the Irish parliament] have been clear and consistent that there can be no renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop it contains,” a Sinn Féin spokesman said.

Sinn Féin’s major demand to the government is that it should support a referendum on the unification of Ireland in the case of a no-deal Brexit. While all parties are in theory supportive of eventual unification, Varadkar strongly opposes any calls for a border poll at present, seeing these as destabilizing and ill-timed.

The Irish government says it has yet to be shown any proposals that obviate the need for a border. Suggestions put forward by Britain, such as technological solutions, streamlined customs and trusted trader schemes, would entail the existence of border checks.

Everyone is clear, gentlemen’s reassurances won’t do.

Charlie Cooper contributed reporting.

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