EDMONTON — The dust has now settled on Alberta’s 2017 round of municipal elections, leaving the political landscape here looking much the way it did last week. Look a little closer, however, and some interesting patterns emerge — patterns that belie Alberta’s reputation as Canada’s right-wing redoubt.

In Edmonton, turnout was low. Only 31.5 per cent of voters bothered to show up. One councillor went down to defeat. Our progressive mayor, Don Iveson, was re-elected in a landslide — 72.5 per cent support and a margin of 100,000 votes over his nearest competitor.

But it was the Calgary race that was carrying all the symbolic freight this time — since it was the scene of a concerted effort to depose Naheed Nenshi, the man named the world’s best mayor just three years ago.

In Calgary, voter turnout was high — so high that many polling stations ran out of ballots, resulting in long lineups, huge delays and glacial results. An impressive 58 per cent of Calgarians took the time to vote. All the incumbents who offered were re-elected. And Nenshi’s victory turned out to be a race — but not the nailbiter some polls predicted. He beat his closest challenger, Bill Smith, by 30,000 votes.

So, to sum up: Alberta’s two largest cities have progressive mayors, and its provincial government is still New Democrat. What does this mean?

For progressives, the news is actually mixed. A moderate political party — the provincial Liberals or the Alberta Party — would have loved it if someone with Nenshi’s stature and political skills had put himself forward for a provincial or federal run in 2019. Iveson emphatically refuted persistent rumours that he will cut short his municipal term and run federally in 2019.

For conservatives, this was a dead loss. The displaced Progressive Conservatives’ mediocre attempts at reclaiming municipal politics in Alberta have failed.

In Edmonton, with all of those defeated former PC MLAs wandering the landscape, many assumed at least one of them would take a run at Iveson. It didn’t happen — and probably wouldn’t have worked if it did. Iveson is popular, young and hip, and first-term mayors typically get a second term.

Two former capital region PC MLAs did enter the fray — one ran for mayor of Strathcona County, another ran for council in a ward with no incumbent. Both lost. (Former PC cabinet minister Don Scott was elected mayor for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, which includes Fort McMurray.)

It all proves what I’ve been saying for years: Alberta is changing. The province’s population is increasingly urban and demographically mixed — and much more progressive than many outsiders believe. It all proves what I’ve been saying for years: Alberta is changing. The province’s population is increasingly urban and demographically mixed — and much more progressive than many outsiders believe.

Calgary was where conservative forces were hoping for a big breakthrough. Former PC party president Bill Smith took on Nenshi, who was once considered the most popular mayor in North America. Nenshi’s popularity has been waning of late, though. Calgary is still deeply recessed economically due to stubbornly low oil prices, while Nenshi himself has been accused of being arrogant and out of touch.

Getting a third term can be tough for any mayor, but in Nenshi’s case, the problem was compounded by a rival who wasn’t even on the ballot: the Calgary Flames.

The Flames organization wants a new arena. Talks with the city on building one haven’t gone well; the team’s ownership organization pulled out of what it claimed were “spectacularly unproductive” negotiations within days of Nenshi announcing his campaign for a third term. Nenshi’s just one vote on council but his public disagreements with Flames ownership over who should pay how much to replace the Saddledome made him a political target in the eyes of many.

Flames vice-president of marketing Gordon Norrie actually urged people on his Twitter account to vote for Smith. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman publicly suggested that the mayor would be indifferent if the team were to relocate to Seattle or Quebec City. After Nenshi won, Flames communications director Sean Kelso issued a tweet (later deleted) that said Nenshi as mayor was “worse than Donald Trump being president.”

The irony could not have been lost on Calgary voters — that it was the penny-pinching conservatives, not the ‘spendthrift’ progressives, who offered the Flames their best shot at a new arena deal.

Smith has deep roots in the Red Tory establishment that used to run Calgary. He was well-funded (he ran TV ads, uncommon in Alberta municipal politics) but perhaps he wasn’t all that well known outside of Tory circles. He mounted a credible challenge but fell short. The power of incumbency in municipal politics is not to be underestimated; many Nenshi supporters, spooked by polls showing their man in trouble, showed up in droves.

So the cities remain progressive enclaves. Edmonton city council added Aaron Paquette, who ran federally for the NDP federally. Fiscal hawks will have their work cut out for them as the cities grow and demand for increased services rises.

It all proves what I’ve been saying for years: Alberta is changing. The province’s population is increasingly urban and demographically mixed — and much more progressive than many outsiders believe. That said, there’s still tremendous brand recognition in the name ‘Conservative’ and many Albertans still believe that’s what we are — even though that may not be as true as it once was.

The municipal votes gave Premier Rachel Notley renewed hope that she can hold on to her fortress in Edmonton, where she ran the table in 2015 — and might even hold on to some of her seats in Calgary. To bolster those odds, she shuffled her cabinet this week to include former PC MLA (and leadership candidate) Sandra Jansen as the new infrastructure minister. Calgary can expect to see a lot of construction crews between now and the spring 2019 provincial election.

And the United Conservative Party, which chooses its first leader next weekend, needs to remember that while most Albertans like to call themselves ‘conservative’, their two largest cities are going in the opposite direction.

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