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NO SPOILERS 🎥

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Thiem 🎥 Anderson (10 mins)

Thiem 🎥 Anderson (3 mins)

Federer 🎥 Nishikori

RESULTS 🎾

💥 = Beatdown \\ 🤕 = Injury \\ ‼️ = Upset

(Matt: If you’re in a rush and want the quickest TL;DR of the match reports, just skim down to the ‘1st Set Summary 📊’ and ‘Match Summary 📊’ bullet points of each match.)

Nishikori d Federer: 7-6(4), 6-3‼️

Key Moment’s & 📊’s:

1st Set: Nishikori got into an early, 0-30 hole at 1*-2, but came through it thanks to a few Federer errors.

1st Set: Both guys started in untidy fashion, hitting 7 unforced errors each by the time we reached 3-3 in the score. Neither were landing a lot of first serves in (both in the 40’s% after 6 games), and neither had any real success on return either. Federer in particular looked like he had been replaced by Ivo Karlovic when facing Nishikori’ serve.

1st Set: With Nishikori serving to stay in the set at 4*-5, Federer finally managed to land a return in play to go up 0-15. But 3 wild, backhand, return errors in the subsequent points ensured that Nishikori got out of the game. 5-5.

1st Set: Federer got himself in a bit of trouble at 5-5, with the Swiss mis-hitting another backhand after Nishikori landed a rare return of serve back in play. But a wonderful backhand down the line from Federer got him to 40-30, and an un-returnable serve closed out the game.

1st Set: Federer seemed to suddenly have an epiphany, at 5*-6, in which he realised that driving backhand returns into the bottom of the net wasn’t a winning strategy. 2 slice backhand returns = 2 points won, to get to 0-30 on Nishikori’s serve. But after Federer absolutely crushed a forehand return onto Nishikori’s toes at 15-30, Kei somehow managed to half-volley it down the line for an improbable, but brilliant, winner (GIF below). Nishikori escaped the game after another Federer error. Tiebreak time.

1st Set Tiebreak: A shaky start from Federer who could only dump a mid-court forehand in the net while in control of the point at 1-1, failing to take the early mini-break. Things got worse for the Swiss, after Nishikori went up 5-1 thanks to another Federer error, and a great half-volley by Kei. Another missed return from Federer set up 5 set points for Nishikori, and the Japanese took the fourth one after a short lived comeback from Federer.

1st Set Summary📊: A strange set with neither player anywhere near their best. Federer’s first serve improved as the set went on (60% overall after being in the low 40’s for the first 3 service games), and Nishikori’s was consistently poor (48% for the set). You could say that both players were comfortable on serve with both winning around 80% of 1st serve points and 70% of 2nd serve points (unusually high numbers). But that metric had far more to do with how poorly both players returned. No break points faced. A LOT of errors: Federer with 12 winners to 20 errors, Nishikori with a measly 3 winners to 13 errors. Given that Nishikori was 34w-4l when winning the first set this season, and Federer was 5w-5l after losing the first set, things were not looking good for the Swiss.

2nd Set: Nishikori started the second set with a shocker of a service game, essentially donating a break of serve to Federer. Roger was clearly feeling generous however, as the Swiss returned the favour immediately with some seriously wild groundstrokes, including a shanked forehand down break point. 1-1.

2nd Set: Federer finally played a non-terrible service game to hold for 2-2, and then got to 15-30 in the subsequent Nishikori service game. But once again the Swiss struggled to go one further, with a missed return and a nice Nishikori backhand, getting the Japanese out of the hole, and holding serve for 2*-3.

2nd Set: It was then Nishikori’s turn to exert pressure on return, setting up a break point with Federer serving at 2*-3. A double fault from Federer, followed by a brilliant Nishikori return + forehand converted chances and the Japanese was 2 games away from the win. 4*-2. Nishikori then held serve with ease to go up 5-2*.

2nd Set: Nishikori served out the match comfortably (fittingly ending on a Federer shanked forehand) to score a surprising straight sets win. The first man to ever do so vs Federer at this stage of the ATP Finals.

Match Summary📊: A night to forget for Federer, who was very poor on serve, but especially return. The Swiss kept on setting up the type of balls he wanted to attack, but then consistently miscued when in position. Fed’s backhand return in particular was non-existent. Nishikori hit just 6 winners in the entire match, but crucially hit far fewer unforced errors (15 to Federer’s 26). Kei’s 2nd serve return improved out of sight in the 2nd set relative to the first, winning 70% of 2nd serve return points (compared to 29% in the 1st). Both will need to play far better to have any chance this week.

Anderson d Thiem: 6-3, 7-6(10)

Key Moment’s & 📊’s:

1st Set: Thiem was almost immediately in trouble at 1*-2. Anderson’s big groundstrokes bossed the Austrian around, especially forehand to forehand, and Thiem could only find the net, down break point. Anderson up 3-1.

1st Set: Anderson was serving well and showing some stellar net skills, taking advantage of Thiem’s deep position in the court to finish off some of the shorter balls with nice sneaks to the net, as well as the odd serve and volley. Thiem wasn’t getting anywhere near Kando’s serve, struggling with his return position on this low-bouncing, medium speed court. If Thiem stayed far back (his preference) he would immediately surrender court position to Anderson and lose control of the point to his opponents big groundstrokes. And if he stepped in, closer to the baseline, his backhand, blocked return was landing very short and once again handed Kando the initiative.

1st Set: Thiem was in more trouble serving at 1*-4, facing another break point. At this point the Austrian had landed just 35% of his 1st serves in. Some very timely big serves got him out of trouble however, and Anderson remained just a single break up.

1st Set: Serving to stay in the set at 2*-5, Thiem faced two set points after Anderson continued his superior aggression from the baseline. But two Anderson backhand unforced errors gave Thiem a reprieve, and once again the Austrian held on by a thread in this opening set.

1st Set: Anderson cooly served out the set to love, with some big serving.

1st Set Summary📊 :The forehand to forehand exchange cross-court was very productive for Anderson. Pushing Thiem wide elicited lots of errors and short balls from the Austrian. Anderson also served impeccably, winning 86% (12/14) of points on his 1st serve and 82% (9/11) on his 2nd serve. This was due to a combination of Kando’s usual high quality and pace of delivery, but also Thiem’s failings to work out a functional return strategy. Thiem also really struggled on his own serve, landing just 48% of his 1st serve in, and generally looked uncomfortable for most of the opener. Anderson faced 0 break points, Theim faced 7, saving 6. An excellent set from Anderson who crushed 15 winners to 10 unforced errors (Theim at 5 winners to 12 errors). Could have easily been 6-1.

2nd Set: Thiem started the 2nd much brighter than he had ended the 1st, holding serve comfortably in his first two service games, and looking much more proactive from the baseline. With Anderson serving at 1*-2, Thiem got to 30-30 but once again got bullied from the baseline, with Anderson again exploiting Thiem’s passive, deep court position. A nice angled forehand, off a short Thiem slice, set up yet another Anderson volley winner. 2-2.

2nd Set: After a shocker on serve in the opening set, Thiem looked to have completely turned his form around. Landing a much improved 80% of his first serves in at this point. At 3-3 Thiem hadn’t lost a single point on either first or second serve in the 2nd set. The problem for the Austrian was that he still hadn’t created a BP on Anderson’s serve.

2nd set: A breakthrough of sorts finally came with Anderson serving at 3*-4. A couple of loose points from Kando put a bit of pressure on the South Africans serve (reaching deuce). But a missed forehand return from Thiem, and another big serve from Kando, kept us level at 4-4. Thiem had won twice as many points on the Anderson serve at this point in the 2nd set compared to this point in the 1st. But he had nothing to show for it.

2nd Set: Nothing could separate the two players on serve, and a so a tiebreak would decide the 2nd set. Thiem started well, going up 3-1 with some more big serving and much flatter forehands, pushing Anderson deep on his serve. But the mini-break was short lived after Thiem surprisingly lost one of the matches longer rally’s to surrender the early advantage. At 5-5, Anderson set up a match point on Thiem’s serve with a big 1-2 punch. But an over zealous return from Anderson levelled the score at 6-6. Thiem then came up with some incredible flat forehands and backhands to set up a set point on Anderson’s serve: 6*-7. But once again a poor return levelled the score. The back and forth continued with Kando setting up another match point on Thiem’s serve, which was then promptly saved by a Thiem line-licking forehand, setting up an easy volley. Back to back aces, one from Kando and one from Thiem, extended the score to 10-10, before Anderson finally broke through. Crushing a forehand down the line (GIF below) to set up a first match point on his own serve (11*-10). Yet another ace from Anderson converted his MP and the South African deservedly took the match in straight sets.

Match Summary 📊: The first set was a case of Thiem playing poorly, on both serve and return, and Anderson playing very well. The 2nd set was much more competitive, with both guys looking impenetrable on 1st serve (2/25 1st serve return points won for Anderson, 2/30 for Thiem), neither facing a break point, and Thiem finally having a bit more luck on return (he finally found a sweet spot for his return position on 2nd serve, winning 59% of 2nd serve return points vs 18% in the 1st set). Nothing could separate the two for the majority of the breaker, with Anderson’s one huge forehand down the line, to set up the 11*-10 match point, making the difference. A statement win from Anderson, who was excellent all match, looking lethal from all areas of the court, especially at the net. Thiem should be encouraged by his 2nd set performance. If the Austrian can find that level again this week, especially on serve, he can trouble most in the field.

SHOTS OF THE DAY 😮

— Great to see Anderson using a bit of serve and volley. Kando knew that Thiem would find it very hard to hit a clean pass from his incredibly deep return position. A perpetually successful strategy against very defensive returners.

— Thiem with a huge forehand. One of the rare highlights from his 1st set performance.

— Amazing reaction volley from Anderson. Thiem leathered that backhand.

— Into the 2nd set. This was Thiem’s problem for much of the match. Much too passive, especially given that this was 30-30 on Anderson’s serve. Giving Kando a mid-court ball with no pace is committing tennis harakiri.

— Thiem’s much better 1st serve performance, in the 2nd set, set up far more of these devastating 1-2 punches.

— Thiem unleashing with his single hander.

— Awesome sliding volley from Thiem. Brilliant control.

— Thiem saving a match point in brave style.

— The shot that made the difference in a very tight 2nd set breaker. After both guys had looked so secure on serve, this one forehand down the line from Anderson gave him a mini-break and a MP on his own serve (converted with an ace).

— A rare backhand winner from Federer in the 1st set.

— Nice bit of cat and mouse.

— Great touch and court awareness from Federer on this drop shot. Knew how far back Nishikori was.

— 🔥 Shot of the day from Nishikori. Down 15-30, serving to stay in the 1st set, Kei came up with a one-handed, on the full-stretch, half volley down the line, off a near-perfect Federer return. One of the keys to the match. Federer was also given a ball abuse violation for sending the ball to mars. The Swiss never really recovered from this bit of Nishikori genius.

— Wonderful backhand down the line from Federer, early in the 2nd set.

— Good wheels from Federer to reach this and deftly scoop it down the line. Set up 15-30 on Nishikori’s serve, but (as part of a running theme tonight) he couldn’t go much further.

— Nishikori grew in confidence as the match wore on, starting to crush 2nd serve returns at will after securing the break in the 2nd set.

INTERVIEW & PRESS BEST BITS 🎤

Federer post-loss:

“I felt we both struggled throughout the first set. You could tell it was sort of a first round. I had my chances maybe a bit more than he did. Yeah, then I started to feel better in the second set. I think we both did. The level went up. Yeah, unfortunately I couldn’t keep the lead that I got early. That was important, I think, at the end. That was the key of the match, that sort of I guess 10-minute swing at the end of the first throughout maybe 1-All in the second. Maybe being the leader rather than being down so…” Source

“I think it (the surface) plays different or it's definitely slower than I think the last three tournaments that I've played. So I think everybody's making a minor adjustment, you know. So am I.” Source

Nishikori post-win:

“I’m glad to win, it is never easy to play my idol, it is always a big challenge against him, so it was great to win today. The first match of a tournament is never easy, we were both playing a little bit out especially in the first set, but I think I played the second set better. ‘I had to change something against him… using the forehand more and more aggressive and it came together in the second set.” (On court interview).

Anderson post-win (source):

“I think it was important, going out there and getting off to a good start. I definitely felt a little bit nervous. But I was able to settle very quickly and find a really good rhythm, taking care of my service games nicely [and I] created quite a few opportunities on his serve.”

“He (Thiem) wasn't serving at a very high first-serve percentage. I felt I was getting into quite a few points. The second set could have been anybody's set. He started serving well. I was taking care of my service games. When it's 12/10 in the tie-break, it really could have gone either way.”

Thiem post-loss:

“I didn't have a good start. I had no chance, basically, in the first set to break him. I was in trouble almost every service game. So the first set was not really good.”

"The second set was a very good set of tennis, I would say. It was just one little ball here and there.” Source

ORDER OF PLAY - DAY 2 (MONDAY) ⏰

CENTRE COURT

— (2pm UK, 9am EST) —

🇩🇪 A. Zverev vs Cilic 🇭🇷 (H2H: 5-1) || (Hard Court H2H: 3-1)

Prediction: Cilic in 3

Zverev comes in to the match with some question marks over his fitness, having struggled with his right shoulder 10 days ago in Paris. Both reached the quarterfinals in Paris, but Cilic pushed the world number one Djokovic in three close sets. Zverev on the other hand, bowed out 1 & 2 to Khachanov and was hitting nowhere near his usual pace on serve. Their last 4 matches have all been very closely fought, with Zverev more often than not playing the bigger points better, especially in their marathon tiebreak in their last meeting in Rome this year. It’ll be tough to assess either of their chances this week until we see them in action on these courts (and their physical condition), but my hunch is that Cilic is marginally fresher and in better (albeit recent) form.

— NB 8pm UK, 3pm EST —

🇷🇸 Djokovic vs Isner 🇺🇸 (H2H: 8-2) || (Hard Court H2H: 7-2 )

Prediction: Djokovic in 2

Isner hasn’t beaten Djokovic since Cincinnati in 2013, with their last three encounters being straight set wins for Novak, all on hard courts. Isner will have to overcome his inferior record indoor vs outdoor on hard courts (65.7% win rate outdoor vs 56.1% indoor), with these conditions looking a bit tricky for the tall American. Isner likes the ball to sit up nice and high into his contact zone, but the indoor courts in London this week don’t look particularly high bouncing. This means Novak should be able to exploit Isner’s dislike of lower balls with more ease than in some of their outdoor matchups. Djokovic has also been in incredible form on both his return of serve, and his own serve, in the past 5 months. It would therefore be surprising if Isner were able to get into too many of Djokovic’s service games, meaning, that in all likelihood, the worst case scenario for Novak will probably be tiebreakers (9/10 of their matches have had at least one breaker). Isner has won 53.6% (37 wins, 32 losses) of breakers he has played in 2018, while Djokovic is at 60.9% (14 wins , 9 losses). Although perhaps more ominously for Isner: since the start of Wimbledon, Djokovic has won 9 tiebreaks, and lost just 1 (to Tsitsipas in Toronto).

EXTRAS 🔍📊🎤

Julien Benneteau (who has just retired from ATP tour tennis) gave an interview where he discussed Federer’s impact and influence, the good and the bad:

Source

Roughly translated highlights:

“Roger is a legend of the game, an icon, he is the only one who can bring 15,000 people to Bercy, nothing else to say… When it comes to the Laver Cup , there are a number of conflicts of interest that become disturbing… It's an exhibition, there's no sporting selection criteria, and it gives $ 750,000 to Nick Kyrgios. Yes, that’s the rate ... Another thing: in organizing this event, there's Craig Tiley, the CEO of the Australian Open. He is paid by Roger Federer's agent (Tony Godsick) and, as luck would have it, Federer played 12 of his 14 matches at 7:30 pm (at this years Australian Open)… Federer was once again programmed in night session against the German Jan-Lennard Struff. On Thursday, Novak Djokovic and Gaël Monfils were thrown into a hot pot at 42 degrees! A few hours later, Roger Federer was able to play in the cool.”

“It is normal that he (Federer) has privileges but there is a small drift, ensures Julien Benneteau. Now, we must realize that there will be a vacuum when he stops ... "On this point, everyone is unanimous.

Matt: Whether or not you’ll find this scandalous or uninteresting will probably depend on who your favourite player is, and whether or not you hold an above-all-else importance on the economics of the lucrative sport that is tennis. Many will, and do, argue that Federer’s influence on supposedly impartial figures in the sport (Craig Tiley for e.g) represents a failing of fairness in such a competitive landscape. Small edges and advantages could conceivably compound to make a rather large difference in the form of trophy hauls and legacies, especially when you consider how small the margins of victory are in many matches at the top of the sport. Others will cite the capitalistic reality of sport in general, and will be comfortable with the protection of the sports biggest financial asset (Federer), even at the potential expense of a perfectly level playing field. It should not be controversial to state that Federer has enjoyed above average treatment, scheduling and influence throughout his career vs his competitors. The real question is how big an issue that fact is.

— Go and follow George who is in London reporting at the ATP Finals all week. He’ll be getting all the juiciest quotes.👆

— Novak Djokovic was presented with his Year End No.1 Trophy after the Thiem-Anderson match. He looked particularly pleased when reminiscing about being No. 22 in the rankings 6 months ago.

The ATP made last years winner of the ATP Finals, Dimitrov, record a preview of this years event, despite the fact that Grigor has had a shocker of a 2018 season and finished 11 places outside the qualification range. Grigor looked like he'd rather stick his head in a beehive than be talking about it.

📊 Nishikori’s win over Federer tonight was the first time Federer has ever lost an ATP Finals, Round Robin match in straights (out of 46 matches). Stat from ATP Media Info.

— A reminder of how damn tough it is to do what Federer has done in his 45 previous Round Robin ATP Final’s matches. This event can be brutal.

📊 Federer’s loss is also his 5th in a row to Top 10 opponents, and ensures that Nadal will finish the year ranked No. 2 (Nadal finishes a year in the top 2 for 10th time). All but certain that Nadal and Djokovic will be the top two seeds for the Australian Open in January (providing both are fit).

NEW BALLS PLEASE 👀

— Zverev living up to his reputation of disliking people who get a little overfamiliar. Sascha is notoriously no-nonsense when it comes to grabby fans. Source

— Andy Murray’s Simone Biles impression. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, he’s now wearing Nike shoes after his Under Armour contract is set to expire this year. These are the models he’s wearing if anyone is curious: Nike Air Zoom Zero (Black)

Source

— Couldn’t resist…

— Sums up Roger’s night.

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GAME, SET, MATCH 👋

— The Racquet is created, and written, by Matt.

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See you tomorrow for Day 2 of the ATP Finals.