In essence, however, the new U.S. plan has the same premise as previous strategies: that elements of Mr. Maduro’s party and Venezuela’s armed forces can be induced to overthrow him, purge his closest associates, release all political prisoners, expel Cuba’s agents from the country and agree with the opposition on democratic elections. In more than a year of applying “maximum pressure” on Caracas, the administration has not come close to achieving that outcome. That raises the question of why the State Department’s initiative has appeared at a time when both the United States and Venezuela are under severe threat from the covid-19 pandemic.

One answer is that administration officials hope to leverage the emergency. “There’s a lot more pressure on the regime,” Elliott Abrams, the State Department’s special envoy for Venezuela, told reporters. He was referring to the recent collapse in the price of oil, which has made it harder than ever for Venezuela to market its principal export, which was already impeded by U.S. sanctions. Mr. Abrams said the pandemic “had nothing to do with the timing.” Yet, of course, the administration is aware that Venezuela, which by Thursday had reported 144 coronavirus infections and three deaths, faces a catastrophic outcome if the disease spreads widely; 80 percent of its hospitals lack even basic supplies, including soap.

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The administration has come under some pressure, including from the United Nations, to ease sanctions on Venezuela so that it can more easily obtain medical supplies. Meanwhile, some observers are saying the rollout of the new strategy, combined with the Justice Department’s announcement last week of indictments against Mr. Maduro and other regime figures, has served to derail the possibility of cooperation between the de facto government and the opposition in combating the epidemic. Mr. Guaidó has embraced the U.S. plan, and the Maduro regime has threatened to bring charges against him and arrested several of his close associates.

The State Department flatly rejects the calls to relax sanctions; Mr. Abrams argues that given the documented corruption of the Maduro regime, its political use of food and other resources, and its ongoing repression, it cannot properly manage any aid. But Mr. Abrams acknowledged to us that it will likely take time for the transition plan to gain traction, if it does. In the meantime, the United States should be looking for innovative ways to get help to Venezuelans; one possibility is to channel now-frozen Venezuelan funds to humanitarian groups via Mr. Guaidó. If this already stricken country suffers a catastrophic attack by the coronavirus, neither “maximum pressure” nor a maximalist political plan will be of much help.

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