Heading into their American League Divisional Series that begins Friday in The Bronx, the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees look very similar on paper.

Both made it past the 100-win mark in the final week of the season. The Yankees earned home-field advantage with a 103-59 record, compared to 101-61 for the Twins. It would have been quite a race if they were in the same division.

But that isn’t the only similarity between the two teams:

Both are long-ball leviathans, each smashing the prior major league record for home runs in a season. Minnesota ended with 307, compared to 306 for the Yankees. No secrets about what each offense is trying to do.

Both have very similar “slash” lines in classic offensive stats. Minnesota hit .270 with an on-base percentage of .338 and a slugging percentage of .494. The Yankees clocked in at .267/.339/.490.

Both have pitching depth, but not Cy Young-type talent in their rotations. No starting pitcher this series is going to be a monster favorite because he can impose his will on opposing hitters.

You regulars know VSiN likes to use xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) to evaluate pitchers because it provides a great read on the impact of skill sets (sharps have used xFIP since it was first published by Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times more than a decade ago). From Minnesota’s pool of starters, Kyle Gibson sits at 3.80, while everyone else is in the fours. For the Yankees, James Paxton at 4.03, Masahiro Tanaka at 4.29 and J.A. Happ at 4.78 show some vulnerability. The stat was designed to run along the same scale as earned run average. Those numbers mean what you think they mean.

So, why are the Yankees such high-priced favorites to win their home games and the series? Is home-field advantage worth that much? How could it be when the Twins went 55-26 on the road this season?

Here are potential difference-makers:

As VSiN mentioned earlier in the week, the Yankees had a better record against top competition. Baseball-reference.com shows New York at 43-32 vs. opponents that finished the season .500 or better, while Minnesota had a losing record of 32-37. That’s a much better winning percentage for the Yankees (.573 to .463) in six more games. So, season-long team stats may have been similar, but the Yankees accumulated theirs vs. a tougher schedule. And, they performed much better vs. playoff contenders.

The Twins have been luckier in close games. Luck doesn’t hold up! Baseball studies have always shown fortune plays a larger role in nail-biters than in blowouts. Minnesota went 23-12 in one-run decisions, compared to just 18-19 for the Yankees. That means in games decided by two or more runs, the Yankees were 85-40 (.680) while the Twins were 78-49 (.614).

The Bronx Bombers are favored for a reason. It’s the job of bettors to determine how high is too high on market money lines.