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TORONTO — Canada’s decision on whether to sign onto a U.S.-Mexico trade agreement will hinge largely on how much stock it puts in Donald Trump’s threats to wipe out NAFTA and forge a two-way deal with Mexico.

On both counts, the president is on decidedly shaky ground, say veteran trade lawyers and negotiators on both sides of the border.

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“If I were Canada, I wouldn’t sign,” said Jennifer Hillman, a former general counsel to the U.S. trade representative during Bill Clinton’s presidency. “What Trump is trying to say to Canada is: ‘You can’t have the status quo, so your choice is this agreement or nothing.’ But the question for Canada is: How credible do you think the ‘nothing’ threat is?”

After shutting Canada out of talks for weeks, the United States and Mexico reached “a preliminary agreement in principle” on Monday that included significant changes to the 25-year-old NAFTA pact.