But it is rarely obvious at the time which path a country is taking, and not only because initial steps toward authoritarianism often look or feel democratic.

Tom Pepinsky, a political scientist at Cornell University, has argued that authoritarianism is often an unintended consequence of structural factors that weaken institutions — such as an armed conflict or economic shock — and of incremental steps taken by leaders who may earnestly believe they are serving popular will.

“Just as democracies can be governed by authoritarians, so too can true-believing democrats lay the groundwork for authoritarianism,” Professor Pepinsky wrote on his blog in February. Decisions that feel like shortcuts to democracy — tossing out judges or vilifying a hostile news media — can, in the long term, have the opposite effect.

Along the way, this process can be difficult to spot, as it plays out mainly in the functioning of bureaucratic institutions that most voters pay little mind to. Elections are often still held, as they have been in Venezuela, the news media retains nominal freedom and most citizens can go about their lives as normal.

Venezuela exhibits the worst-case outcome of populist governance, in which institutions have been so crippled that crime is rampant, corruption is nearly universal and the quality of life has collapsed. But those consequences are obvious only after they have done their damage.