China's deep-rooted relationship with Zimbabwe, formed under recently deposed leader Robert Mugabe, has weakened in recent years. But under the watch of new President Emmerson Mnangagwa, seen as a friendlier face to Beijing's commercial interests, bilateral ties could strengthen. In fact, many speculate that it was China's concerns over its investments that resulted in the Nov. 14 coup that ousted Mugabe — a charge that Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration has denied. Regardless, close ties are widely expected under Mnangagwa, billed as a pro-business figure committed to increasing foreign inflows.

Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on August 25, 2014 Diego Azubel-Pool/Getty Images

"Beijing has bankrolled Mugabe and his wife for years and will cozy up to Mwangagwa now," Pinak Chakravarty, distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank, said in a Monday note.

Concerns over Mugabe's policies

Since Mugabe assumed power in 1980, Beijing has fostered intimate political, military and personal ties with the controversial politician, providing his government with interest-free loans — a relationship that's resulted in hefty Chinese investments within Zimbabwe's tobacco, diamond and power industries. China has backed Mugabe even as he was slammed in the West for despotic rule — in 2008, Beijing vetoed a United Nations resolution that would have imposed an arms embargo and financial restrictions on the African leader. But links have soured as of late. Mugabe's indigenous law, which requires foreign companies to have majority black Zimbabwean ownership or face the risk of closure, was a major source of tension as it endangered Chinese commercial projects. Mugabe's move to nationalize Zimbabwe's diamond mines also irked Beijing, whose state-owned companies are major players in local diamond fields. "As Zimbabwe's largest source of foreign investment, Chinese investors are inevitably impacted ... dissatisfaction is rampant among many in China, who question the solidity and future of the special friendship between the two countries," said a 2016 Brookings report.

Mnangagwa seen as more investor-friendly

In that respect, 75 year-old Mnangagwa, who received training in China, is seen as a better bet than his predecessor. Despite being Mugabe's right-hand man, the former vice president — nicknamed "the Crocodile" — is widely expected to get rid of nationalist laws and focus on restoring the Zimbabwean economy and land reforms. "Following Mugabe's resignation, China's foreign ministry went out of its way to praise the friendship between China and Zimbabwe, and Mnangagwa can be expected to continue that relationship," Hannah Ryder, former head of policy and partnerships for the United Nations Development Program in China, wrote in a Project Syndicate editorial on Friday.

Harare is part of Beijing's Belt and Road initiative and a major source of resource wealth.

China's role in the coup