THE MANNIFESTO: VOLUME I, CHAPTER VII

To be quite frank, this essay doesn’t need polished presentation, nor well-articulated reason, nor well-timed salvos of ‘mind-shattering new theory’. I simply plan to prove the following:

Stannis’s campaign in the north draws directly on elements of Napoleon Bonaparte’s most famous triumphs: at Ulm, Austerlitz, and Arcola.



Specific elements of Stannis’s northern campaign are derived from Hannibal’s famous victory at the Battle of Cannae.

This essay is broken into several sections examining various elements of Stannis’s character and his military campaign. In each section I will examine the similarities in a particular sequence:

Contents

The Incontrovertible. Those parallels which exist without assuming any of my other theories are correct. The Predictable. Those parallels that are likely to exist, pending the accuracy of several theories made throughout the Mannifesto.

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THE INCONTROVERTIBLE

There a great many similarities between Napoleon, Hannibal and Stannis which don’t even rely on theory. They are virtually self-evident. This section enumerates those that I can find (or remember—I’ve spent weeks gathering this stuff only to lose my notes at one point).

Mors Crowfood and Joachim Murat

In A Dance with Dragons, Mors Crowfood arrives at Winterfell ahead of the main Baratheon army. Once there he sets about blowing his warhorns and beating his drums. The cacophony of sound appears to be coming from the wolfswood to the west or northwest of the castle:

The drumming seemed to be coming from the wolfswood beyond the Hunter’s Gate. They are just outside the walls.

— A GHOST IN WINTERFELL, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

NOTE: The Hunter’s Gate is on the west side of the castle, the wolfswood is generally to the west and northwest.

Shortly before these horns start sounding, we are also informed that Bolton scouts sent that way are not returning:

“To fight Lord Stannis we would first need to find him,” Roose Ryswell pointed out. “Our scouts go out the Hunter’s Gate, but of late, none of them return.”

— A GHOST IN WINTERFELL, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

If you’ll allow the tiniest of assertions, these missing scouts are almost certainly being killed by Mors and his men.

The net effect of this is that it confuses the Bolton forces occupying Winterfell… they think that Stannis’s main army is immediately outside the castle, positioned in the wolfswood. The sounds coming from the woods, coupled with the lack of accurate scouting patrols are the basis for this seemingly accurate conclusion.

Now… let me share something from real-world history: during Napoleon’s Ulm campaign, he tasked one of his men (Joachim Murat) to do virtually the exact same thing. I don’t mean a small similarity, I mean the exact… same… thing:

As part of that expectation, Napoleon sent his brother-in-law, General Marshall Joachim Murat, with his Calvary into the Black Forest. Napoleon knew that creating a diversion would confuse his enemy and give him the upper-hand in battle. As Murat’s cavalry approached the Black Forest they began to blow trumpets and act like the main army, while preventing Austrian patrol forces from breaking up the brigade.

— NAPOLEON’S PEAK OF MILITARY SUCCESS, STUDENTPULSE

Wow…

The Black Forest versus the wolfswood.

Blowing trumpets versus warhorns and drums.

Disrupting patrols versus killing scouts.

Both efforts eventually convincing the enemy that the main army was near…

Need I say more?

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Hosteen and Aenys Frey versus Paullius and Varro

By the time of Theon’s sample chapter from The Winds of Winter, we know that the Frey forces are coming down on Stannis’s encampment at the crofter’s village. These men are led by Hosteen Frey. It’s important to keep in mind that they were originally led by two men, Hosteen and his brother Aenys.

Both men has very different personalities and attributes as leaders, as noted several times throughout A Dance with Dragons and The Winds of Winter:

Hosteen and Aenys. He remembered them from before he knew his name. Hosteen was a bull, slow to anger but implacable once roused, and by repute the fiercest fighter of Lord Walder’s get. Aenys was older, crueler, and more clever—a commander, not a swordsman. Both were seasoned soldiers.

— REEK II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS “…Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come.”

— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

However, the more careful and calculating Aenys dies before the Frey forces arrive at the village. This of course leaves the command to Hosteen:

“That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?” “Twenty green boys, with spades,” Theon told him. “The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more’s the pity. He will be angry now.” Strangely, Stannis smiled. “Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come.”

— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

So collectively we see that a Frey army, once led by two men is now led by one with a penchant for hastiness and emotional thinking.

The parallels to Hannibal are overwhelming. One of Hannibal Barca’s most famous victories occured at the Battle of Cannae. A decisive factor in that battle was Hannibal’s awareness of the leadership of the Roman forces:

In 216 BC, when elections resumed, Gaius Terentius Varro and Lucius Aemilius Paullus were elected as consuls, placed in command of a newly raised army of unprecedented size, and directed to engage Hannibal… …Ordinarily, each of the two consuls would command his own portion of the army but, since the two armies were combined into one, Roman law required them to alternate their command on a daily basis. It appears that Hannibal had already realized that the command of the Roman army alternated, and planned his strategy accordingly. The traditional account puts Varro in command on the day of the battle, and much of the blame for the defeat has been laid on his shoulders… …Varro, in command on the first day, is presented by contemporary sources as a man of reckless nature and hubris, who was determined to defeat Hannibal.

— BATTLE OF CANNAE, WIKIPEDIA

Again, the parallels are striking and hardly need explaining.

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The Karstark Raven versus Alvinzi’s Spy

Although readers knew in A Dance with Dragons, Stannis appears to have only learned about the Karstark betrayal courtesy of Jon Snow’s letter which arrived in Theon’s sample chapter. Many times in the Mannifesto I have argued that Stannis must have known about the betrayal prior to Jon’s letter (the chief essay being Subverting Betrayal).

However the timing of Stannis’s “education” is not relevant to the following observation. During the siege of Mantua, Napoleon had the following experience:

Alvinzi sent a peasant across the country to carry dispatches to Wurmser in the beleaguered city. The information of approaching relief was written upon very thin paper, in a minute hand and inclosed in a ball of wax, not much larger than a pea. The spy was intercepted. He was seen to swallow the ball. The stomach was compelled to surrender its trust, and Napoleon became acquainted with Alvinzi’s plan of operation.

— HARPER’S NEW MONTHLY MAGAZINE, VOL. 3

Similar to Napoleon, it is the revelation of the spy that ostensibly provides Stannis with information regarding his opponent’s plans. This bears relevance in later observations comparing Stannis’s campaign to the siege of Mantua, particularly Napoleon’s moves at the village of Arcola.

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Robert Baratheon versus Joseph Bonaparte

All too often we are reminded of Stannis’s frustration with Robert, how he always felt that Robert has tarnished him in one or more ways. There is an interesting psychological parallel with Napoleon as well:

Psychological perspectives have offered additional assistance in unlocking Napoleon’s personality. Sigmund Freud famously traced Napoleon’s aggressive ambition to his youthful hostility towards his older brother Joseph and his urge to take his place as first son in the family.

— NAPOLEON THE MAN, HISTORY TODAY

Napoleon’s brother Joseph was not just any brother, he was the King of Spain. Of course none of this makes a whole lot of sense in truth since Napoleon was directly responsible for Joseph’s position, but nonetheless the psychoanalysis is entertaining.

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THE PREDICTABLE

If I may be so bold, the Night Lamp theory I wrote is perhaps one of the most likely predictions regarding the Battle of Ice we can expect from The Winds of Winter. It has a heavy basis in textual evidence, and makes only the smallest and reasonable intuitive arguments. It is certainly one of the most popular and referenced theories to have ever been published on my WordPress site.

If most (all?) of the major elements proposed in the Night Lamp theory and the subsequent Mannifesto are correct then a bevy of additional parallels to Napoleon and Hannibal arise.

The Lakes versus the Satchan Ponds

A major component of the Night Lamp is the belief the Stannis plans to lure the Freys onto the frozen lakes at the crofter’s village. Once placed on these lakes, he plans on luring the Freys into a trap:

Holes have been dug into the ice, into which the Frey vanguard will fall.

I further theorized that Stannis will erect catapults and fire stones (from the village watchtower) into the lakes to shatter the ice and decimate the remainder of the Frey army’s main strength.

Compare this to one of the most famous apocryphal stories of Napoleon’s conquests, the Satchan Ponds:

Towards the end of the battle, when the Russians and Austrians were in headlong flight to avoid capture, an entire division, with cannon and ammunition wagons, rushed onto the frozen Satschan Ponds to escape from the pursuing French. Inevitably, under their weight the ice broke – a few cannonballs fired by a Guards battery at the end of the battle had hardly helped matters – and men, horses and artillery were plunged into the frozen lakes. The odious anti-Napoleonic propaganda of the time immediately turned the shallow ponds into a bottomless chasm that was supposed to have swallowed up the fleeing troops.

— VOL. II CHAP. 14, CHRONOLOGICAL TABLE OF THE PRINCIPAL EVENTS IN THE LIFE OF NAPOLEON

Once again, the similarities hardly bear explaining. The only significant difference between apocryphal history and fiction here is that the Russians and Austrians were fleeing after the famous defeat at Austerlitz, whereas the Night Lamp posits the annihilation of an oncoming enemy.

The Crofter’s Village versus Arcole

One of the main advantages of the crofter’s village in which Stannis sets up camp is the limited approach:

The next day the king’s scouts chanced upon an abandoned crofters’ village between two lakes—a mean and meagre place, no more than a few huts, a longhall, and a watchtower.

— THE KING’S PRIZE, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Subsequently we know that there are only two unambiguously safe ways to access the village, either end of the “land-bridge” between the lakes. This has a decided military advantage because it narrows an enemy approach and limits the number of men which can be brought to bear simultaneously.

This bears a notable similarity to one of Napoleon’s exploits:

The depression of the soldiers thus compelled at last, as they supposed, to retreat, was extreme. Suddenly, and to the perplexity of all, Napoleon wheeled his columns into another road, which followed down the valley of the Adige. No one could imagine whither he was leading them. He hastened along the banks of the river, in most rapid march, about fourteen miles, and, just at midnight, recrossed the stream, and came upon the rear of the Austrian army. Here the soldiers found a vast morass, many miles in extent, traversed by several narrow causeways. In these immense marshes superiority in numbers was of little avail, as the heads of the column only could meet.

— HARPER’S NEW MONTHLY MAGAZINE, VOL. 3

In this example from history, Napoleon has arrived near the village of Arcola. The restricted accessibility of the village (via narrow causeways) and the dangerous surrounding terrain bear curious resemblance to the ice lakes and limited strip of land constituting the crofter’s village.

Further, the discouraged psychology displayed in the excerpt shares great similarity with the despair shown in Stannis’s camps at the village.

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Blinding with the Morning Sun

One element of Hannibal’s victory at Cannae was his decisive use of timing:

In addition, the Carthaginian forces had maneuvered so that the Romans would face east. Not only would the morning sun shine low into the Romans’ eyes, but the southeasterly winds would blow sand and dust into their faces as they approached the battlefield.

— BATTLE OF CANNAE, WIKIPEDIA

Prior to the assassination of Renly at Storm’s End, Stannis and Renly were committed to engage each other in battle the following morning.

During Renly’s last council, Randyll Tarly astutely warns of Stannis’s selected timing:

“And have it said that I won by treachery, with an unchivalrous attack? Dawn was the chosen hour.” “Chosen by Stannis,” Randyll Tarly pointed out. “He’d have us charge into the teeth of the rising sun. We’ll be half-blind.”

— CATELYN V, A CLASH OF KINGS

So clearly we see that Stannis and Hannibal were at least similar in this regard. The connection to the Night Lamp strategy emerges when you consider the ‘optional’ theory that Stannis will spring his trap on the Freys by drawing his sword Lightbringer. This possibility is discussed in the main Night Lamp essay itself, as well as Teeth of the Rising Sun, an essay dedicated to exploring the possibility.

NOTE: In short, the theory states that Stannis will draw his sword to blinding effect as the Freys near the holes dug in the ice on the frozen lakes. When “Mance” is executed in JON III–ADWD, Stannis was verifying the blinding power of the sword… prior to implementing it as a battlefield tactic.

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Mance Rayder versus Karl Schulmeister

In the Night Lamp and subsequent essays (Operating in the Dark and the entirety of Volume II), I argue extensively that Stannis was complicit in Mance Rayder’s survival. This was due to Mance’s utility in serving the king’s campaign.

Of particular interest is the observation that Mance was disguised courtesy of a magical glamor provided by Melisandre.

Returning to Napoleon, his most famous of spies and intelligence gathers was a man by the name of Karl Schulmeister. A famous account of his introduction to Napoleon is as follows:

All his life, Karl Schulmeister had wanted to work for the great Napoleon. Now, in the great hall at Strasbourg, where the Emperor had agreed to interview him, it seemed to Schulmeister that his big chance had come at last. Napoleon addressed him curtly. “Where are your references?” “Sire, I have no recommendations but my own.” “You may go. We have no work for men without references.” Without another word, Napoleon rose and retired behind a screen, indicating that the interview was over. But Schulmeister did not go. Instead, he made a few alterations to his dress and puckered up his face. In a moment the Emperor returned and, thinking that Schulmeister had gone and that here was a fresh recruit, demanded, “Who are you?” “I am Karl Schulmeister,” replied the candidate. “You interviewed me a moment ago. Now that I have demonstrated my ability to change my personality completely, perhaps you could find me a job in your service.” Napoleon, we are told, was thunderstruck by the deception which was so good he was completely fooled. At any rate, he immediately gave Schulmeister a job.

— KARL SCHULMEISTER, THE FORGOTTEN SPY WHO AIDED NAPOLEON’S TRIUMPHS, LOOK AND LEARN #707

This is not the end of Mance and Karl’s similarities:

The skill of acting, at which Schulmeister was so brilliant and which had got him his new job, was to save his life on many occasions during his spying career. At the Battle of Wagram, he was followed into a house where he had taken refuge by a group of Austrian soldiers on his trail. As the Austrians burst into the house they were confronted by a barber coming downstairs with soap, towels, razors and other barbering equipment in his hands. “We are chasing a spy,” they shouted. “Have you seen him?” “A man just ran upstairs,” replied the barber. Like bloodhounds, the soldiers stormed up the stairs while Schulmeister, the barber, made a rapid getaway. Another time, when he was surrounded by the Austrian police, he changed his guise and walked right through their cordon, bowing to right and left. The police allowed him to pass because he bore no resemblance to the man for whom they were looking. On yet another occasion, he paid a million francs to an Austrian general so that he could take the general’s place at a council of war. The council was presided over by the Austrian Emperor who, like the other generals, failed to spot the intruder. And the entire proceedings of the Council were reported back by Schulmeister to Napoleon.

— KARL SCHULMEISTER, THE FORGOTTEN SPY WHO AIDED NAPOLEON’S TRIUMPHS, LOOK AND LEARN #707

In particular, the similarities are most compelling when you consider that Mance will likely need to escape after the rescue of Arya. Further compelling is the idea that Mance still has use of the ‘ruby cuff’ and will use it to emulate Ramsay Snow, as proposed in Showdown in the Crypts.

Lastly, Schulmeister’s attendance at the council of war bears immense similarity to the proposal made in The Hooded Man Uncloaked. In that essay, I posited that Roger Ryswell was slain by the spearwives and his identity usurped courtesy of the ruby cuff. Using the cuff Mors Crowfood (or alternatively Mance Rayder) was able to attend Roose Bolton’s summons in A GHOST IN WINTERFELL–ADWD. See the essay for details.

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Schulmeister’s Deception and the Karstark Letter

The most famous deception made by Karl Schulmeister has yet to be witnessed:

But the master spy’s greatest coup came when he presented himself to Marshal Mack, commander of the Austrian-Hungarian army, in Vienna. “I am a Hungarian nobleman,” he told Mack. “I have been living in France for many years, and now the French have banished me because they suspect me of being an Austrian spy. I would like to avenge myself on them by really becoming an Austrian spy. Could you use my services?” Mack, who was no fool but, at 53, an experienced commander, was impressed with the “nobleman.” He obtained a commission in the Austrian army for Schulmeister, made him a member of the best military clubs in Vienna, and then appointed him chief of intelligence on his personal staff. Then Schulmeister pulled the trick that has made him the model for double agents for nearly two centuries. One day he entered Marshal Mack’s office with a French newspaper in his hand. “We have just had news that the French are about to revolt against the tyrant Napoleon,” he declared. “As a result, most of the French army is being withdrawn from the Austrian border in order to deal with the expected uprising in France.” Schulmeister spread out the French newspaper before the Marshal. “This was smuggled out of France. You will see from the reports in it that civil strife is spreading all over France. These reports confirm the information from our spies. France is about to be rent by civil war.” A gleam came into Mack’s eyes. “Then this is the time to attack!” he exclaimed. “When the French are at their weakest.” What Mack did not know was that the French newspaper was a fake, deliberately printed for this coup, and that his Director of Intelligence was a Napoleonic spy who expected that Mack’s reaction would be to attack, and who was about to send news of that attack to Napoleon. Confidently, Mack advanced with 30,000 of his troops to Ulm, in south-west Germany, where he expected to find only the remnants of the withdrawn French army.

— KARL SCHULMEISTER, THE FORGOTTEN SPY WHO AIDED NAPOLEON’S TRIUMPHS, LOOK AND LEARN #707

The parallel here is tremendous. If you recall from my essay Subverting Betrayal, Stannis was actually encouraged by the knowledge that Roose Bolton had a map to his location.

Furthermore, after receiving this letter, Roose Bolton was encouraged to send the Freys and Manderlys out to the village and defeat Stannis. True there were other factors (the infighting), but Stannis’s fate had begun to look undeniably grim.

Yet in truth we see that Stannis has been erecting a most colossal trap intended to decisively defeat the Freys.

Furthermore Stannis manages to benefit from the Karstark betrayal: despite being agents for Bolton, the king manages to make unintentional double agents out of Arnolf Karstark and his kin (as further described in Subverting Betrayal, Suicidal Tendencies and The Rising Sun of Winter).

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Exaggerations of Troop Numbers and Disinformation



In Deception in Siegecraft, I articulated the idea that Stannis was deliberately exaggerating his troop numbers in order to compel Bolton to rush toward Winterfell.

Napoleon neatly holds to the same concepts:

Napoleon advocated secrecy to protect military movements. He also advocated deception, once telling General Clark to tell his brother Joseph, King of Spain, to exaggerate the numbers of troops he had or that the enemy had… …He also advocated using disinformation to fool spies and the enemy

— ENCYCLOPEDIA OF DECEPTION

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Opinions of History

One further notion is that Stannis and Napoleon share the same of military histories: that they are exaggerated and should be cautiously read:

Napoleon was a serious student of history, especially of great commanders, claiming that “History is a set of lies agreed upon.”

— ENCYCLOPEDIA OF DECEPTION

Notice how this compares to Stannis’s recollections of Daeron Targaryen’s claims from the book Conquest of Dorne:

“When the Young Dragon conquered Dorne, he used a goat track to bypass the Dornish watchtowers on the Boneway.” “I know that tale as well, but Daeron made too much of it in that vainglorious book of his. Ships won that war, not goat tracks. Oakenfist broke the Planky Town and swept halfway up the Greenblood whilst the main Dornish strength was engaged in the Prince’s Pass.”

— JON IV, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

For added irony, Daeron also commits the very same attribute that Napoleon discusses, exaggeration of troop numbers:

“Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms. It pleased the Young Dragon to make all our armies larger when he wrote that book of his, so as to make his conquest that much more glorious, and it has pleased us to water the seed he planted and let our foes think us more powerful than we are, but a princess ought to know the truth.”

— THE PRINCESS IN THE TOWER, A FEAST FOR CROWS

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There is probably much more to observe here, particularly with regards to Napoleon. However, I am not a historian and it is a rather large pain to mine for and corroborate all of these details. Perhaps being incomplete is better. All told I’d rather readers finish this essay with the following in mind:

Stannis shares some extremely prominent similarities with Napoleon and to a lesser extent Hannibal. In particular, it seems like Martin drew inspiration from these historical generals when designing Stannis and his campaign strategies.

It is particularly compelling how many of these pieces fit with elements of the Night Lamp and the Mannifesto in general, despite the fact that those theories were written and published months before the author became of aware of these similarities.

This essay may be far from exhaustive, further parallels may yet lurk.

And I would rather avoid pointing out the huge similarities between Stannis and Napoleon with regards to destiny and duty. Google is your friend in this regard.

What emerges to me is a hypothesis:

Just as we know that Stark and Lannister are seeming pseudonyms for the Yorks and Lancasters… could Baratheon be a pseudonym for Bonaparte?

Ninja Edit:

I would also like to point out just how similar Stannis’s plans are to Napoleon’s famous Ulm campaign. Check out the following video and compare it to the forthcoming battle:

Simply change the river Danube to the White Knife and Ulm to Winterfell and you can start seeing things looking eerily similar.

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