Chapman University’s outlook for the Orange County economy suddenly looks bright.

Thanks to encouraging jobs trends found by this reporter in a lightly used federal employment report, Chapman economists retooled their local forecast just before releasing their semiannual predictions Wednesday, Dec. 6. What was once a dour outlook — “O.C. Job Growth Is Well Off Its Pace” in the pre-printed summary — now projects a local hiring spree approximately triple the original estimate for employment increases.

Here are six highlights of what Chapman economists are saying about the local economy …

1. Orange County job growth has averaged 38,500 positions a year from 2012 to 2016. If Chapman’s new outlook is correct, roughly 38,000 jobs will be added this year and 42,000 in 2018. That would mean bosses added 272,000 jobs in seven years, just 9,000 fewer than the 1995-2001 boom era. Or for those who like percentages: it would add up to seven straight years of 2-percent-plus hiring vs. a historical average of 1 percent.

2. New federal income tax schemes may hurt Orange County home prices, hitting upper-middle-class communities the hardest. Still, with limited supplies of homes to buy Chapman forecasts local housing appreciation will finish 2017 at 6.4 percent, cooling to 5.2 percent in 2018.

3. Local manufacturing has been weak, but Chapman says it’s a split picture: Big losses of lower-paid work, primarily in apparel and food, with growth in certain better-paying niches making durable goods. Two hot Orange County factory sectors since the recession have ended: Aerospace products and parts (typical annual salary of $125,476) and medical supplies and equipment ($80,964). Cold segments: Textile-product mills ($45,000) and fruit and vegetable preserving ($54,300).

4. Statewide, Chapman sees a sluggish manufacturing sector more than offset by new information services jobs and “the cyclical and volatile construction sector.” California’s employment growth is forecast to finish 2017 at 1.7 percent and dip to 1.5 percent in 2018.

5. California’s biggest risk in Chapman’s eyes are threats to blow up North American trade relations. Chapman says Mexican imports, while seen by trade critics as an economic weakness, are actually a jobs machine for California employers. If President Donald Trump dramatically curtails regional trade pacts, Chapman estimates California will lose 280,000 trade-related jobs over five years.

6. Nationally, Chapman sees little chance of U.S. economic growth hitting the much-coveted 3 percent annual expansion rate with gross domestic product growth forecast to run at 2.3 percent for this year and 2.2 percent for 2018. “Although cumulative growth during the current expansion has been only 14.4 percent, it is now the second longest on record,” the report noted.