The Ontario provincial election is increasingly becoming a race between Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals and Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives — with NDP support continuing to drop — the latest poll from EKOS Research shows.

Conducted between May 29 and June 1, the survey has the Liberals holding on to the five per cent lead they had over the PCs in mid-May

But support for both parties has been growing.

The Liberals are currently sitting at 38.5 per cent, up from 35.8, while 33.7 per cent supported the PCs — up from 30.0.

Though the margin of error is 3.6, the NDP have fallen from 20.4 per cent to to 16.9 and EKOS president Frank Graves attributes a big part of that decline to their decision to oppose a budget their supporters found attractive.

“Whatever tactics/strategy Horwath has been attempting to pull out of this swoon, it’s not working. The NDP are basically disappearing as a political force in Ontario. The field is fairly clear for a showdown between Wynne and Hudak, with both rising in lockstep,” Graves writes in his analysis of the results.

“It is the case, however, that Wynne has maintained a clear advantage throughout this and barring a serious pratfall in tomorrow’s debate appears poised to win.”

The Green Party has also seen its support decrease since the mid-May poll, falling from 11.9 per cent to 7.8.

The demographic challenge

The Liberals’ lead among women — 41 per cent to the PCs 29 per cent with a 5 per cent margin of error — partially explains their overall lead.

But there are two another demographics that could, predictably, determine the outcome of the election: seniors and baby boomers.

“Both parties are continuing to battle it out for the Boomer and senior votes, groups that will make up the lion’s share of the votes on Election Day,” Graves writes.

At 36.0 per cent, the Liberals are practically tied with the PCs (35.1) among those between 45 and 64, but the lead changes for those over 65 — where the PCs hold a five per cent lead — 40.2 to 35.1.

In both cases, the margin of error is higher, at 5.7 and 5.8 per cent respectively.

Scandals aren’t resonating

With both the PCs and the NDP hammering the Liberals over ethical lapses and spending scandals — the most recent being the $317 million bailout MaRS innovation and research complex in downtown Toronto — 40 per cent of respondents nonetheless said they felt happy or hopeful about the Wynne government.

That compared to 52 per cent who were either discouraged or angry.

The majority of the anger and discouragement is coming from those who said they’d be voting PC, with 59 per cent putting themselves in the former category and 30 per cent in the latter.

For the NDP, those numbers were 23 and 44.

Only five and nine per cent of Liberals were angry or discouraged.

“Anger is up slightly and quite a bit among PCs who are very angry. But hope is up even more amongst Liberal supporters who have warmed to Wynne and her platform. The NDP emotional responses reinforce the egregious problems Horwath is suffering,” Graves writes.