Health Law On Trial (Again): How A Long-Shot Case Grew Legs And Now Looms As An ACA Threat And 2020 Election Issue

Many legal experts across the political spectrum are dubious about the fate of the latest court case challenging the constitutionality of the health law. But should the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rules against the ACA following oral arguments today, that all but guarantees it will end up in front of the Supreme Court -- with its decision coming right before the 2020 elections. In the last election cycle, protecting the health law proved a winning issue for Democrats.

The New York Times: Obamacare In Jeopardy As Appeals Court Hears Case Backed By Trump

A federal appeals court panel will hear arguments Tuesday on whether a federal judge in Texas was correct in striking down the Affordable Care Act, a case with enormous stakes not only for millions of people who gained health insurance through the law but for the political futures of President Trump and other candidates in the 2020 elections. The case, which could make its way to the Supreme Court ahead of those elections, threatens insurance protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions and many other sweeping changes the 2010 law has made throughout the health care system. (Goodnough, 7/9)

The Associated Press: Latest 'Obamacare' Court Battle Plays Out In New Orleans

It's unclear when the panel will rule in a case that appears destined for the Supreme Court, which has reviewed the law before. The ultimate outcome will affect protections for people with pre-existing conditions; Medicaid expansions covering roughly 12 million people; and subsidies that help about 10 million others afford health insurance. Tuesday's arguments are the latest in a lawsuit filed by Republican officials in 18 states, led by the Texas Attorney General's Office. It was filed after Congress — which didn't repeal the law, despite pressure from President Donald Trump — reduced to zero the unpopular tax imposed on those without insurance. (McGill and Santana, 7/9)

Kaiser Health News: Federal Appeals Court Takes Up Case That Could Upend U.S. Health System

Here are five important things to know about the case. (Rovner, 7/9)

The Wall Street Journal: Trump Hopes To Stem Tide Of Legal Setbacks On Health Care

The broader legal fight will likely stretch beyond the 2020 election. Whoever is elected will decide whether to drop or defend lawsuits over such issues as contraception coverage, family planning funding, and health plans that don’t comply with the ACA. “Medicaid work requirements? Another administration will not defend that,” said Loren Adler, associate director of the Center for Health Policy at the Brookings Institution. He said the Trump administration has seemed to stretch legal boundaries more than previous administrations. (Armour, 7/8)

Politico: Long-Shot Legal Challenge Could End Obamacare During The 2020 Campaign

Legal experts across the political spectrum, who had earlier dismissed the lawsuit as a long shot, contend Reed’s decision was an overreach. Even if the individual mandate was unconstitutional, they say unrelated provisions of the law — like the expansion of Medicaid to millions of low-income adults in nearly two-thirds of states — should be allowed to stand. Even a pair of Republican attorneys general in Ohio and Montana, which both expanded Medicaid, have argued that O’Connor’s ruling went too far and would have detrimental consequences. “There’s a pretty strong bias … to try to preserve things under law, rather than knock them down,” said Tom Miller, a health care expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “The preponderant stance has been to go minimal in terms of knocking out broad federal laws.” (Demko, 7/8)

Modern Healthcare: There's Little Chance Appeals Court Will Strike Down ACA, Legal Experts Say

Left-leaning and conservative legal experts alike say there's little chance the three-judge panel in New Orleans agrees with the lower court and declare the ACA unconstitutional. The arguments used by the Republican states that sued to wipe out the ACA are "frivolous," the experts say. "This case is different from all of the previous Obamacare cases because there is a consensus among the Republican intellectual establishment that the legal arguments are frivolous," said Yale University health law professor Abbe Gluck. "You've got a lot of prominent Republican legal experts siding against the Trump administration in this case, so I think that most people are hoping that this circuit will apply very settled law and reverse the lower-court decision." (Livingston, 7/8)

Los Angeles Times: Trump Officials Tell One Court Obamacare Is Failing And Another It’s Thriving

As they push a federal court to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Trump administration lawyers are arguing the law is no longer workable because Congress eliminated a penalty on people who don’t have health insurance. But for months, senior administration officials and lawyers have been making the exact opposite case in other settings, a review of government reports, court filings and public statements made by Trump appointees shows. In fact administration officials, including White House economists, this year repeatedly have hailed the strength of insurance marketplaces created by the 2010 law. (Levey, 7/8)

Some potential political ramifications of the lawsuit are already seen across the country —

CNN: Obamacare's Fate Will Be At Stake At 2020 Ballot Box As Well As In Court

"It is Trump's nightmare, that at the height of the 2020 campaign he could be in the Supreme Court trying to overturn protections for people with preexisting conditions," says Democratic consultant Jesse Ferguson, in a verdict privately echoed by many GOP strategists. "I think people underestimate what this could all mean." (Brownstein, 7/9)

The Salt Lake Tribune: On Eve Of Court Hearing, Democratic Group Unleashes Ad Blitz Against Reyes And Other GOP Attorneys General Fighting To Topple Obamacare

The Democratic Attorneys General Association is rolling out an ad blitz that takes aim at Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes for supporting a lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act. The six-figure ad campaign will also target Republican attorneys general in Louisiana, Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia, all of whom have backed the anti-Obamacare case that is scheduled for a Tuesday court hearing. (Rodgers, 7/8)

NH Times Union: As Federal Lawsuit Looms, NH Congressional Delegation Pushes For Support Of Obamacare

Members of New Hampshire’s congressional delegation lobbied for public support of the Affordable Care Act on Monday, the day before opening arguments in a federal lawsuit that could dissolve the national health care plan. The delegation, all Democrats, warned of dire consequences should the latest legal challenge to the ACA succeed in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. (Alden, 7/8)

The Advocate: Jeff Landry Targeted By Democratic Group For Joining Health Care Lawsuit

The Democratic Attorneys General Association is taking aim at Louisiana General Jeff Landry and several other Republican AGs for their role in a lawsuit that seeks to overturn the Affordable Care Act. The group bought Sunday newspaper ads in The Advocate and four other papers in other states as part of a campaign attacking the Republican AGs who are part of the lawsuit and who are running for reelection this year. The ads come as oral arguments are scheduled for this week in New Orleans in the case, which is expected to determine whether the landmark health law is unconstitutional. (Karlin, 7/8)

The Hill: Democratic Group Hits GOP Attorneys General In Six-Figure Ad Campaign On ObamaCare

The campaign group for Democratic attorneys general launched a six-figure ad campaign targeting their Republican counterparts for trying to undo the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in court. The Democratic Attorneys General Association's (DAGA) digital and print ad campaign will target Republican attorneys general in five states who are currently involved in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the health care law also known as ObamaCare. (Hellmann, 7/8)

The Hill: Senate Democrats Launching Digital Ads Against GOP Senators On ObamaCare Lawsuit

The Senate Democratic campaign arm is launching a round of ads on Tuesday morning attacking GOP senators over a Republican lawsuit seeking to overturn ObamaCare. The five-figure Facebook ad campaign launches ahead of arguments in court on Tuesday in the lawsuit, which was brought by 20 GOP-led states seeking to invalidate the Affordable Care Act. (Sullivan, 7/8)

This is part of the KHN Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription