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(Peter De Lorenzo is the founder of Autoextremist.com, a Web site devoted to commentary on the auto industry. A veteran of automotive advertising and marketing and an industry consultant, De Lorenzo is also the author of “The United States of Toyota: How Detroit Squandered its Legacy and Enabled Toyota to Become America’s Car Company.” He spoke with Reuters correspondent Kevin Krolicki.)

DETROIT (Reuters.com) -- The U.S. auto industry will eventually mirror the European market and Chrysler will no longer exist, Autoextremist.com’s Peter De Lorenzo told Reuters. Here are excerpts:

On the future for the U.S. auto market and U.S. automakers:

“I firmly believe that we are moving toward becoming a mirror image of the European market where several manufacturers will all hold an equal share of the market. If you want to pick a number, say 10 percent. I think Chrysler will no longer exist. Chrysler will either be sold and parceled off by Cerberus or they will become just a conduit for foreign manufacturers to sell cars and maybe manufacture cars here. I think Chrysler will cease to exist as we know it. I think Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda and maybe Hyundai will all approach 10 percent of this market. Now, what the Chinese will muster in a 10-year time frame, that’s a wild card. On an optimistic basis, they might be able to get rolling by that time, but I do think they’re at least five to seven years away from having an impact on this market. I’m not optimistic about the chances for the Chinese in this country. It might be 10 years before they are even a player in this market.”

On the prospects for GM and Ford to succeed with turnaround plans:

“Now GM has about 20 percent of the U.S. market and they’re going to have around 10 percent. I think maybe at 10 percent of the market they will return to profitability in North America. I’m actually more bullish on Ford than GM right now because Ford is more focused. GM is still wrestling with the fact that they have too many divisions and players within their solar system for this market. I think Ford CEO Alan Mulally has done a tremendous job in less than two years in eliminating much of the entrenched bureaucracy of the Ford Motor Company. Their bureaucracy was more entrenched than the GM bureaucracy. And that’s saying a lot. All of the various fiefdoms have been erased and Mulally has them going in one direction. I think GM CEO Rick Wagoner has been very reluctant to skip a step. He’s been taking these gradual steps, trying to manage this downward spiral without really making a really bold move that might get GM ahead of the curve a little bit. That’s the difference between the two executives. Mulally has been much more willing to make bold decisions.”

On what the industry needs from the next U.S. administration:

“I think the U.S. government needs to start treating the auto industry like the Japanese government treats their industry, which is as an asset and as a source of pride instead of this adversial relationship. The government is going to have to support our industry. If we, as a country, lose the ability to manufacture things, in the long run it’s going to be a lot bigger than the automobile business. It’s about the fabric of the country. I think that GM and Ford can be competitive in the alternative propulsion universe. But we are talking 2012 before any electric vehicles on any scale are running around on the streets of America. That’s a long time.”