The number of homes for sale in the Portland area continues to shrink. New listings in November tumbled 30.9% from October, according to the local listing service RMLS.

Contracts for home sales that will close over the next couple of months, although about 20% higher than last November, were 11.7% less than last month, and there were 15.3% fewer homes sold across the metro area this November compared to October.

Inventory, already low, remained at 2.4 months – anything below four months suggests a seller’s market with demand outpacing supply – and the average time residential properties spent on the market before receiving an acceptable offer increased to 60 days.

January 2019 had the highest inventory of the last three years with 3.3 months and the lowest was March 2017 with 1.3 months.

Inventory is calculated by dividing the active residential listings at the end of the month by the number of closed sales and homes proposed and under construction.

Sale prices continue to rise.

Real estate experts point out that prices continue to rise. November’s median sale price of $415,000 and pending sales of 2,274 were a bump up from November 2018 – $391,400 and 1,904 respectively – and people are shopping.

“Inventory is low in general and it has been that way for quite some time in west Portland,” said Blake Ellis of Windermere Realty Trust. “Within particular markets, you will see strengths and weakness more than the overall data shows."

He said that at a certain price point in Northwest Portland, there might be 20 listings on the market now, where this same time last year there were 10 and at a different price there might only be five.

“Units in buildings that usually take longer to sell sold in a week while another home has you wondering, ‘Why is it taking so long? It’s a great house in a great neighborhood,’" said Ellis, who sold a 1,600-square-foot condo in the 2016 Cosmopolitan on the Park building in Portland’s Pearl District for $1,225,000. An offer for the two-bedroom home was received in 17 days.

The 1,401-square-foot, corner condo at 333 N.W. 9th Ave. #712. is priced at $675,000.

Ellis’ listing at 333 N.W. 9th Ave. #712 for a 1,401-square-foot, corner condo in the 2005 Elizabeth Lofts building is priced at $675,000, which is about the asking price for a 1,000- to 1,100-square-foot home in a newer building, he said.

“People are deciding what’s important,” he said. “Sometimes it’s the newest and fanciest, other times they want an established building with 40 percent more square footage for the same price.”

Comparing the first 11 months of 2019 to the same period of 2018, the median sale price rose 2.5% from $400,000 to $410,000, while new listings (39,248) decreased 1.8%, pending sales (28,782) increased 1.7% and closed sales (27,374) decreased 1.5%, according to the latest report from RMLS.

The housing market nationally has gotten a boost from mortgage rates that fell in September 2019 to 3.49% for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which was a three year low. November rates were as low as 3.66%, while a year earlier rates were as high as 4.9%.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.73% the week ending Dec. 19.

Economists with the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, known as Freddie Mac, forecast the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to be 3.8 percent in 2020 and 2021, and national homes sales will increase modestly, from 6 million in 2019 to 6.2 million in 2020 and to 6.3 million in 2021, due to low inventory.

House price growth is expected to continue to decline through 2021 with annual rates of 3.2 percent, 2.8 percent and 2.1 percent in 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, according to Freddie Mac.

“Rates are quite low,” says Ellis, who says his agency has “great” listing activity that will hit the market right after the December holidays. “Between refinancing and purchase origination, the financial aspect is popping. Closings are delayed because transaction departments need to produce the documents. It’s a good sign.”

Completed home sales in the Portland area over the years, according to the local listing service RMLS.

--Janet Eastman | 503-294-4072

jeastman@oregonian.com | @janeteastman

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