Colin Kenitz (3-1-16)

Intel Extreme Master’s tournament series is one of the few international events we still have spattered amongst Riot’s various league’s across the world. Besides the Mid Season Invitational between splits and the World Championship at the end of the year, we’ve got the microcosm that is IEM. Coming up this weekend during March 4th through the 6th, we’ll be able to see NA LCS’s TSM and CLG, EU LCS’s Origen and Fnatic, LPL’s Qiao Gu and Royal Never Give Up, SKT T1 of the LCK, and finally, also of Korea’s challenger scene, ESC Ever.

Day 1, Group A:

Group A’s first match up will be ESC Ever versus TSM, so we’ll start here – with TSM.

While things for TSM have seemed to be looking up, their 8 – 6 record in the NA LCS and 4th place standing isn’t as impressive as it seems; and it’s not very impressive. TSM has only gone 2-0 against one team in the NA LCS, and that’s Echo Fox. While Echo Fox had looked strong after getting back their starting mid and top laner, TSM was able to shut them down with relentless map pressure and strong decision making. Unfortunately their first win against Fox should be held with a grain of salt, as it was against a substitute squad that went 0 – 4. TSM’s recent losses against Team Liquid (7-7, 5th place) and, more so, Team Dignitas (4-10, 9th place) have been quite concerning.

For a squad that is considered pedigree in the NA LCS, their inconsistency against teams lower on the table than them is frustrating. It’s frustrating because of their all star line up, and the high expectations we had for them at the beginning of the season. While many have hinted at their problems being due to a difference in game theory by different players, we can only hope they continue to dial in their problems and improve. As their reigning champions of the IEM series last year, the kings look to have a hard path to defend their throne. Yell0wstar and Doublelift are going to need to show up huge for the team to make it out of their group. Not only that, but Bjergsen is going to need to find his former self, as he’s having a hard time struggling on his team of two years now, as he’s no longer the solo star on the roster. Svenskeren has been a big question mark for me, showing totally different performances from game to game. Most importantly, however, I think TSM’s success will depend on their fresh blood in the top lane, Hauntzer, who is a freshman on the international stage. While he was considered one of the best top laners in the NA LCS at the start of the season, he’s been struggling thus far. To pit him against the likes of Crazy of Ever, and later on Looper of QG and possibly SoAZ of Origen. He’ll have to at least hold his own against these titans while the rest of the team looks to make big plays early on in the game to gain a foothold going into mid game.

ESC Ever is the South Korean question mark.

The team that initially gained so much attention by defeating SKT T1 at the KeSPA Cup, a tournament held just after SKT won the first ever repeat Summoner’s Cup. While the upset caused waves through the community, it was to be held in speculation that SKT had been on break since the World Championship, and were not up to practice at the time of the tournament. The unknown team then went on to win the KeSPA Cup over CJ Entus. Ever failed their promotion up to the LCK against Sbenu Sonic Boom, but that didn’t mean they were finished with the limelight. The then un-sponsored Ever attended IEM Cologne, where they surprised many by winning over the Qiao Gu Reapers 3 – 2. Will we be looking at a possible rematch? It’s hard to say, but it’s entirely possible. Both teams could very realistically make it out of their groups into the finals of the tournament.

Ever hasn’t had much exposure since then for most, but they are staging a new line up for IEM Katowice. Athena, their former mid laner, has been replaced by Kang “Tempt” Myung-Gu. and Kim “KeY” Han-Gi has returned at the support position, and Lee “LoKeN” Dong-Wook will be at ADC. Both players have been with the team for a long time, but have been unable to play previously for various reasons. Many looked at Athena, who’s left to play for EDG in the LPL, as a strong point for Ever – but several Korean analysts have gone to twitter to say that he is, in fact, replaceable. My biggest speculation of Ever is that their synergy will not be entirely on point, as they lost their most recent challenger match against MVP 0-2, looking a little sloppy and confused. If Ares can bring his play together well with Crazy and Tempt, his solo laners, Ever will find success in this tournament. Their bot lane is strong, and KeY is considered one of the best at his position and a bard specialist. They will have to play smart in the lane swap scenarios, and also be smart with how Ares and KeY roam together, but they could be a major dark horse here as they have been in the past. ESC Ever is the tournament’s biggest wild card. They could fall down in groups, but they could make it all the way to quarters, semis, or even the finals if they play at the top of their game.

Royal Never Give Up is our first contender from China in group A.

The team is first place in group B in the LPL at 6-2 in best of three sets – where they are tied with IG. This is a team that has a full ten man roster with two players in the arsenal at any given position. Their starting roster is going to be just fine, though, with a few legends in the line up. Names like Mata and Looper may ring a bell. Perhaps from the 2014 World Championship Samsung White. However, the other members are no slouches either. Mlxg, Xiaohu, and Wuxx are all players that have already made their mark in China, although the three very young players are all each only in their second split. If their veterans at the top lane and bottom lane can temper their nerves, it’s gonna be a lot of fun to see what this team is capable of.

Mata and Mlxg like to make early invades on the enemy jungler, calling for the whole team to collapse for a kill and a red or blue buff. Mlxg has a tendency to farm hard and play extremely aggressive, which looks impressive while he’s ahead, but has also been their downfall in the past when he falls behind. The team also has excellent baron control, and split pushing capabilities with Looper. Xiaohu loves control mages, but isn’t afraid to play assassins either, as he recently played zed against QG when they took the first win over the Reapers in the most recent week of LPL in a convincing 2-0. RNG fit into this meta well, and I am excited to see how they fare against the other teams in attendance. Although they can play lane swaps well and have a good understanding of late game macro play, I hope we can see some classic aggressive Chinese team fighting. I think they are the favorite in their group.

Group A’s European LCS contender will be Origen.

Although the team made it to quarter final stages of the World Championship last year, their 2016 has been rocky. They sit at 6th in the EU LCS at a square 7-7. Origen has had a really hard time pulling out wins against the top teams in the region, but they have been convincing of their dominance over lower tier teams. It goes to say, however, that EU currently has three teams tied for first, so the top of the table is neck and neck.

Origen’s biggest problems seem to be a lack of conviction in shot calling. That, coupled with random sloppy mistakes like not respecting lack of vision, have plagued them all spring. While we still see glimpses of the dominant SoAZ and PowerofEvil that we have known in the past, Origen’s solo laners have not been without their struggles. It’s a game of hot and cold for them it seems. While the players are all very smart and mechanically strong, there is something they are missing that they had last year. Amazing has pointed out that Mithy understands the current state of the game at the highest level, so along with this knowledge and a brand new coach, we’ll see what kind of waves Origen can make on their home turf in Europe. Look for Sven’s incredible team fighting capabilities and for SoAZ to play carry champs like Quinn and Fiora, despite the creeping prevalence of tanky tops. If Origen can find their groove, they may be able to strike and early upset against RNG, however, it’s going to take a peak performance from the struggling squad to defend their home turf.

Day 2, Group B:

Starting on Saturday, the day begins with SKT T1 against CLG.

Beginning with SKT, it’s difficult to say entirely what we should expect. While six months ago we would have said this is an entirely one sided battle. At this point, things couldn’t be more different. SKT have been struggling in the LCK this spring split. The current World Champions are currently 5-4 and sitting at fifth place in the standings of the LCK. To put this into a better perspective, though, there are two teams tied for second, each with 6 -3 records, which is a one match difference, and Jin Air sits in second place at 7-3, only two wins over SKT. SKT is also tied up with the star studded line up of Longzhu gaming. LCK is also the indisputable strongest region in the world. Besides the undefeated (in sets) ROX tigers alone at the top, the battle for the rest of the top five in South Korea is looking to be at one of its most competitive points it has ever been in. In spite of a similar slump that many analysts compare to SKT’s slump in spring of 2014, after winning the season three World Championship, where they struggled to find their footing.

It isn’t like SKT have struggled with inconsistency like TSM has though. They’ve been winning against the bottom of the table teams (except a 2 -1 match loss against Afreeca recently). Their individual lane play has been quite strong. Faker is Faker, the best player in the world, who has impressed on just about every champion he’s played this season. Duke’s performances haven’t looked as overwhelmingly dominant as they did when he was the star of Najin last year, but he is slowly but surely finding his place on SKT. His individual play in the lane has been great. It’s their mid game and late game macro play that seems to be lacking. Additionally, Bengi, who has been lackluster lately, has been replaced on the starting line up for IEM by Kang “Blank” Sun-Gu. Blank has played a few times so far for Bengi, with mixed performances, but the young player looks very promising. I have no doubts that despite their slow start to the season, SKT will look dominant in lanes – and in this entire tournament. Their success will depend on Duke’s teleports and Blank’s jungle pathing and decision making. Bang and Wolf have been a strong bot lane thus far in the season, and will definitely be a problem, and may be the cause of lane swaps. Look for SKT to go far in this tournament under KkOma’s coaching. They’re my tournament favorite.

Counter Logic Gaming, their first opponent is coming off a big week in the NA LCS.

The second place team from North America is coming off of a 2-0 week against two very strong teams. On day one of the week they managed to finally defeat Immortals, who were previously 12-0. For the second game of their week they managed to take down Cloud9, securing themselves that second place slot. Their game against C9 was chaotic, but it was more a display of the incredible skill on both sides, more so than a messy blood bath. CLG has been looking strong this season, and although that may sound like a broken record player, it’s really true this time. The team of faith will look to do right by their fans on the international stage for the first time in a while after CLG failed to do so last year, succumbing to C9’s miracle run though the Summer split play offs and overall flopping at Worlds.

Xmithie and Darshan have really stepped it up a lot this split. Xmithie is looking much more strong mechanically, which was his biggest flaw last season. And Darshan’s split push and teleport macro decision making in the late game has been a game deciding factor in several of their matches. Surprisingly, Huhi has been securing a lot of kills for the team and playing very well. Stixxay is playing more the role of a clean up ADC, and while Aphromoo looks the same as always, this means he’s very polarizing in either a positive or negative way. If CLG can make it into the late game they have a strong chance, but their bottom lane will really struggle against the likes of Bang and Wolf of SKT.

Fnatic is our second team from Europe at IEM Katowice this weekend.

Fnatic is recovering from losing their all star top laner and jungle duo to Immortals over in North America, but they’re beginning to find their new footing. The Team isn’t looking nearly as impressive as they had at the World Championship, where they made it all the way to the semi finals. They maintain their mid laner and ADC, but even yell0wstar, their crown-jewel shot caller, has left to TSM. Their newest additions, Gamsu in the top and Spirit in the jungle, are both players that struggled a lot in 2015. Gamsu at times looked incredibly strong in the NA LCS, but overall was a part of a team where it looked as if he never really felt comfortable or confident in his play. Spirit, who played for WE at the IEM Championship last year, was the shining light of the then last place LPL team. He actually looked incredibly dominant in the tournament and throughout the spring and summer splits, single handedly carrying his team with incredible jungle play and his bright spirits.

Spirit seems to be moving away from carry junglers and opting into more of a supportive and tank role. Simultaneously, as the meta seems to be inching ever closer to a tanky top lane meta, Gamsu seems to be more and more comfortable with his role on the team. Febiven hasn’t been as devastating as we’re used to seeing him, but as the axis of his team, its not surprising. That being said he has been performing well, along with Reckless, as the rocks of the team. Klaj, the newest addition to the team, added mere weeks ago after Noxiak left, seems to be gelling well with Reckless and becoming more confident in his play on the stage. Fnatic is coming off of a 1-1 week in the LCS. They lost to first place H2K this past week, but they did manage a win over G2, another team tied for first, the previous week. Despite a recent loss the Splyce, they have looked firm in their position as 5th in the standings with an 8 – 6 record. I don’t expect Fnatic to make a strong run this tournament, as their first opponent is Qiao Gu. If they can pull out a win it will be through patient play and elaborate team fights in a likely longer game.

Qiao Gu are going to be coming into IEM Katowice with a chip on their shoulder.

This Chinese team is 7-1 in best of threes so far this split, and are looking to be China’s strongest team – despite coming off of a loss against RNG recently. They have looked incredibly dominant, each player showing great strengths. I think that for China, this tournament will be really important. Frankly, the region was embarrassed at the World Championship. Their strongest teams were completely annihilated. While many went to say that China was never really that good, or that they were sandbagging I completely disagree. For me, it seemed to be a failure to adapt to western style play, which became the meta of the tournament. There were a lot of extreme meta game changes just before the World Championship last year, and that’s not so much the case now. This is going to be Qiao Gu, who took second place at IEM Cologne, looking to take that trophy that just escaped their grasp last time.

Qiao Gu’s Doinb is their mid lane power house. His Leblanc is fearsome, and his Viktor has an incredibly impressive win rate of 28-7 in competitive play. Swift has been a fore in the jungle since last year, and it’ll be really interesting to see how he compares to SKT T1’s Blank if they can make it past Fnatic, which they should. This is an instance where this may be the most competitive match of the tournament landing in only the second round of group B. While QG fielded Peco alongside Mor against RNG last week in the LPL, where they took their first set loss of the split, they have another weapon in their arsenal. The well known Uzi also sits in the holster of this QG line up, a player who has consistently proved his individual skill not only at the World Championship finals, but also by consistently placing top in the LPL, no matter what team he’s on. QG is predominantly a team fighting team, so watch for their ability to kite out long fights and have strong 5v5 in the mid to late game. QG is, in my opinion, tied in seed with RNG, but are not the favorites in their group which looks stronger overall.

One of the most interesting aspects of these international tournaments is the development of the micro meta, or the tournament specific meta. Each region brings it’s own preferred play style and it’s own preferred picks. While no region except China is sending their current most powerful teams, I don’t think that will make this tournament any less important. Players are going to be looking to prove themselves against the other regions and assert their dominance. The weaker looking teams hold a great deal of veteran names that could put their experience to the test against the mettle of newer players.

My predictions are:

3rd: RNG

2nd: QG

1st: SKT T1

Feel free to look for future articles about League of Legends on this blog, or make fun of my predictions on my twitter: @bangensuubs

* Pictures courtesy of LoL eSpots, TheScore eSports, and more. None of them are my own.