Matt Latimer is a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. He is currently a co-partner in Javelin, a literary agency and communications firm based in Alexandria, and contributing editor at Politico Magazine.

There is an obvious subtext to the panicked effort to purge the GOP of Donald Trump: to allow the party’s true hero to emerge to vanquish Hillary Clinton and restore peace and justice throughout the land. To most GOP elites, of course, the savior is Jeb Bush, complete with the Clark Kent glasses and aw-shucks good guy demeanor. The Chamber of Commerce crowd is so convinced that Jeb is the man that it (so far) has placed a bet of more than $100 million on that proposition.

There’s just one problem—the Clintons want Jeb Bush to be the GOP nominee, too.


It was Trump himself who picked up on this fact when Hillary Clinton singled out Bush for criticism over his remark that “I’m not sure we need a half a billion dollars for women’s health issues.” Bush later said he “misspoke.” (This is supposed to be the safe, gaffe-free candidate, right?) By going after Jeb directly, and far from the first time, the Clintons want to “elevate” him, Trump charged, because they know they can beat him.

Here’s something you don’t hear, well, ever, in Washington: Donald Trump is right.

Regardless of whether Clinton survives her primary battle with a growing list of potential foes—that before long may include Joe Biden, blast-from-the-past Al Gore and heck, at this rate, maybe even Michael Dukakis—Republicans ought to think hard about the reasons why Bush might be the easiest of the serious GOP contenders for the Clintons to beat. And it’s not just because they’ve done it before.

#1. Baggage Handling

Think the Clintons have political baggage? Well, so do the Bushes. And Jeb is being crushed under the weight of it.

Any number of political observers have expressed dismay at Bush’s seeming inability, or reluctance, to answer the most obvious question he could possibly be asked as a candidate: Did he support his brother’s invasion of Iraq? For those mapping it out on charts at home, the ever-evolving answer is currently: The war was a good idea, but mistakes were made, but we shouldn’t have gone in at all, but it’s a good thing that we did and anyway that terrible Obama screwed it up. Clear enough, for you?

The Democrats aren’t finished asking about Iraq. And they will find umpteen million ways to ask an understandably and obviously uncomfortable Jeb about his brother’s record on Hurricane Katrina, the Great Recession and the Wall Street bailouts. And then, they’ll get to work on Jeb’s father, who the former Florida governor has proclaimed “the most perfect man alive.” Imagine how uneasy Jeb will be when he has to repudiate his father’s decision to break his “no new taxes” pledge or to keep Saddam Hussein in Iraq. When the Democrats are finished, poor Jeb Bush will be in more defensive postures than Amazon’s PR department.

His family seems determined not to help matters. George W. already has threatened to campaign for his brother—the Clintons might even offer to pay for his trips.

#2. Known Knowns

As has been famously chronicled, the Clintons and Bushes are pretty good frenemies. Not long ago, George W. and Bill were yukking it up yet again at the launch of their joint Leadership program—an initiative I thought was an Onion parody until I looked it up. Only two years ago, Jeb himself gave Hillary a medal for dedicating “her life to serving and engaging people across the world in democracy.”

The Clintons know that not-so-deep down the Bushes are basically Greenwich Republicans who are only too happy to pal around with them in private, when they don’t have to pretend to be hard-core conservatives. The Bushes are fierce competitors, to be sure, but they also are very predictable. They will hire the same people, with the same strategies and arguments as they always do. The kind of guys who led Bush 41 to a polite defeat against, well, the Clintons.

All great leaders need a little crazy—a willingness to depart, sometimes radically, from what the media and their opponents might expect. Determined to appear pragmatic, reasonable and uncontroversial, Jeb’s the candidate least likely to surprise the Clintons. He’ll argue for cutting taxes by a modest amount, argue for trimming spending just a tad, urge incremental changes in government programs and avoid any positions or statements that might raise anyone’s hackles. In hit TV parlance, if Donald Trump is “Empire,” Jeb is “Webster,” but without the cute little kid.

#3. The Base Problem

So far, Bush evokes as much allure among the Republican rank and file as a Dixie Chicks concert on Earth Day. Indeed, the primary message that seems to be coming from the Jeb camp is not about his conservative credentials, but about how much he disagrees with the party he hopes to lead, to the obvious admiration of outfits like —horrors!—the New York Times.

On hot-button issues that might motivate Republicans to turn out and vote, such as illegal immigration and the Common Core education plan, the Bush view is not too different from the Clinton one. Even on abortion, Bush is more vulnerable than most of the other GOPers in the race. His family long has championed Planned Parenthood. In fact, George H. W. Bush was such a supporter that he once was given the regrettable nickname of “Rubbers.”

On social media, Bush lags almost all the other serious contenders, usually badly, and even among those with less well-known “brands.” On Facebook, Ted Cruz boasts one million more “likes.” On Twitter, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson have 200,000 more followers. Marco Rubio triples him. And in one month alone, Donald Trump attracted twice as many new followers on Twitter as Jeb Bush has attracted ever.

But to be fair, by any measure Jeb is miles ahead of George Pataki.

In the opinion polls, the former Florida governor is cratering faster than the ratings for Caitlyn Jenner. He is tied for 7th place—yes, 7th place—in Iowa, according to CNN. In New Hampshire, he is not only well behind Trump, but is scrambling to hold on to second against John Kasich, a guy who showed up in the race about 10 minutes ago.

Nationally, a new Rasmussen poll has Bush within the margin of error of Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina. A new Fox poll has him in the single digit cellar, behind Trump, Carson and Cruz. And, even when Mr. Bush was leading the field in June, his negative ratings were higher than any of the past three presidential nominees at this point in the race.

#4. Nice Guys Finish Last.

There’s a reason almost no one has commented on Jeb Bush’s performance in the first GOP debate. He wasn’t terrible. He wasn’t great. He was just, well, there. Mediocrity is apparently the plan.

While Trump and other rev up the base, Jeb seeks to be the calm, stately, dignified guy waiting in the wings. He’s the “sober adult,” the Washington Post notes.

The “tortoise” in the race, says alleged comedian Jay Leno, a noted authority on being lame.

Or, as one booster put it to the New York Times, Jeb wants to be the “one guy you can rely on.” Kind of like a Volvo. In other words, it’s Jeb as Alfred the Butler.

This strategy is based on necessity. The former governor is an earnest, low-key, policy wonk who is not going to comment unfavorably on Rosie O’Donnell’s posterior. But there’s a reason no one pays money to watch Alfred the Butler match wits with the Riddler on the silver screen. And, alas, there’s no Marvel film in the works that brings together Captain America, Thor, Iron Man and “The Sober Adult.” Most Americans would much rather watch the swashbuckling guy with the cape. And by temperament, that just ain’t Jeb. Perhaps he can yet turn that into an advantage, but so far, it isn’t working.

#5. Having the Last Gaffe

During his losing bid for governor in 1994—a year nearly every other Republican, including his brother, won big—Jeb was asked what he would do to help African-Americans if elected as governor. Bush replied, “Probably nothing.” And considering the aforementioned hammering he recently received on women’s health issues—even former pro-choicer Trump had the moxie to mock Bush—it doesn’t look like he’s improved much since.

So far on the campaign trail, he’s talked about “phasing out” Medicare, but later said that’s not what he meant. Then the multimillionaire heir of multimillionaires said that regular people needed to work “longer hours,” another comment he later tried to walk back.

Recently Salon magazine dubbed Jeb Bush the “worst candidate ever.” That’s not true, of course— Lincoln Chafee and the metric system, anyone? Still, it’s not clear this is a sentiment shared only by the far left.

All candidates make mistakes, of course. But a longtime, sophisticated politician like Jeb Bush doesn’t have room to make many of them. Especially a rich guy whose supporters already act entitled to the nomination. Just ask Mitt Romney.

In short, even if GOP elites are right—that Donald Trump isn’t ready for the big stage—they better make sure their chosen understudy isn’t going to fare far worse.

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