Houston Texans are heading into the 2019 offseason with a free agent that will headline free agency at the edge defender position. The edge defender free agent class is stacked with talent, coupled with many NFL teams sitting on a large amount of cap dollars heading into year 3 of the spending window; expect the money to get crazy. 2014 number 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on March 13, 2019. Clowney works on the right edge of the defensive line opposite from J.J. Watt producing one of the best edge rushing tandems in the league. Houston should do everything in their power to retain Clowney for 2019 and beyond.

Clowney is an elite run defender with improving (but not yet elite) pass rushing skills. Clowney still does not possess the technical skills of an elite pass rusher housing a number of moves to get around the tackle to the quarterback. Clowney still relies on his raw athletic power to get behind the line of scrimmage for run defense and pass rushing. One trait of Clowney that is different from the edge rusher group is Clowney’s ability to line up at various positions/places along the defensive front. Clowney lined up as an edge defender (OLB/DE) on 88% of his defensive snaps. But the other 12% had Clowney lining up at various places as a linebacker, sometimes directly over the center, or power rushing a guard. Houston will shift Clowney around to confuse the opponents offensive line, as well as use him to hide a blitzing defensive back.

The issue that could create a road block in contract negotiations is that Clowney does not produce the box score of a dedicated pass rusher. Based on how Houston positions and uses Clowney one should not merely measure him as a dedicated pass rusher. Essentially Clowney is a game wrecker without the box score to back it up. But the value of Clowney’s game shows up on film on a weekly basis.

For this contract projection Clowney will be measured against players who have earned top tier contracts. These players are considered “edge rushers” however the player may be listed, by their team, as an Outside Linebacker or Defensive End. Statistics and contract numbers will be complied from various sources including ProFootballFocus, Football Outsiders, Pro-Football Reference, NFLScrapR program, OverTheCap, NFLNextGen Stats, and NFLGSIS. This projection will include two final contract variations. Buckle up!!

Players For Comparison

The defensive positions of outside linebacker and defensive end have molded into a term used by many as “edge rusher”. Defenses play more snaps in sub-packages than base due to the nature of the game. This means an outside linebacker becomes the defensive end in many formations, or the defensive end becomes and outside defensive end. There are many names associated with the position. Edge Rusher brings all of those positions into one bucket. Players used in this comparison could be classified as a 34 defensive end, 34 outside linebacker, 43 defensive end. But at the end of the day they are all edge rushers paid to stop the run and get to the quarterback. These players rarely drop into coverage.

Players:

Khalil Mack

Von Miller

Justin Houston

Olivier Vernon

Danielle Hunter

Jason Pierre-Paul

Chandler Jones

Melvin Ingram

Calais Campbell

Carlos Dunlap

Player Statistics & Contract Metrics Used For Comparison

The NFL fan has access to a wide range of data now compared to 5 years ago. Analytics are here and growing at an unbelievable rate. Websites such as ProFootball Focus and Football Outsiders provide detailed data for both players and teams driven by analytics. OverTheCap is an outstanding website source for contract details and contract metrics. Open source R-code from the NFLScrapR program provides detailed data produced by the NFL, including Estimated Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA). All of these statistics should be referenced to paint an overall picture of the player. One piece of data is not used to define the player.

A two year look at Clowney versus the other players listed above will be used for player statistics sections. For the comparison players the statistics will reference the two years prior to their current contract. A comparison of the players statistics after the execution of a new top tier contract is not the best method of comparison.

Player Statistics:

ProFootball Focus Player Grades

Pro-Football-Reference Player Annual Value

Sacks

Quarterback Pressures

Tackles For Loss

Stops (PFF)

Tackles

Games Played

Snaps Played

Penalties

Player Awards (All-Pro, Pro Bowl, Player Of The Year)

Contract Metrics

Total Value

Full Guarantee At Signing

Total Guarantee At Signing

Average Per Year (cap adjusted)

Age At Signing

Draft Status

Cash Flows (year 1, 2,3)

Total Cumulative Cash Flows

Franchise Tag

Houston will have the option to place the franchise tag on Clowney if a new contract cannot be reached by March 8th. This will extend the negotiation window to July 15. The franchise tag comes with possible issues on its own. First the player and team will likely disagree on the value of the franchise tag. The NFL has a franchise tag amount for a Linebacker and Defensive End. The amount for the Linebacker tag pulls in contracts for inside linebackers thus lowering the value. Houston was able to have Clowney’s 2018 5th year option amount lowered from the defensive end amount to the linebacker amount, costing Clowney over $1.5 million in salary. Clowney’s agent is prepared to fight hard against this if the franchise tag is used in 2019.

Franchise Tag Amount (estimated):

Defensive End: $17.144 million

Linebacker: $14.953 million

If Houston uses the Linebacker designation, the difference in salary is over $2 million. Clowney’s agent will argue that Clowney lines up as a defensive end more than as an outside linebacker. Currently on the Texans’ website, the team has Clowney’s position listed as “OLB/DE”. The final decision will be made by the NFL Management Council based on the amount of snaps at each position.

ProFootball Focus tracks each players snaps and where the player lines up for each snap. For 2018 regular season Clowney played 902 defensive snaps.

795 snaps along the defensive line 255 snaps as an “OLB” 106 snaps as an off the line of scrimmage Linebacker 504 snaps as “REO or LEO” (right or left end) Remaining snaps at tackle, slot DB, or other.



Based on this information Clowney should be awarded the Defensive End designation if the franchise tag is applied.

The next discussion point is what will Clowney do if the tag is applied. Clowney would not sign the tender despite immediately guaranteeing the salary for the year. Clowney may not sign the tender and skip out on OTA’s, Training Camp, and Preseason. Technically this would not be a hold out since Clowney would not have signed the franchise tender. Houston and Clowney will have until July 15, 2019 to execute a new contract beyond the franchise tag. If a new contract is not executed by that date, then the team must wait until after the 2019 season to work on a contract again. Based on recent news of the $1 million dollar settlement between Clowney and Houston; expect Houston to mark Clowney as a defensive end if the franchise tag is used.

Houston could elect to utilize the Franchise Tag for 2019 & 2020. The 2020 tag amount would be 120% of the 2019 amount, for a two year total of $37.72 million. Going down this path would mean less cash spent over a two year period versus a new market level contract. Along with that comes a fractured player/team relationship, along with a player hold out through camp and preseason at a minimum. Head coach Bill O’Brien would be asked about Clowney’s status weekly; and social media would split 50/50 between siding with Clowney and calling him a distraction. Cash is king, but at what “cost” for showing your locker room the team will reward for performance.

Player Comparisons

Player Name Draft Year Draft Round Age At Signing Year Signed Team At Signing Khalil Mack 2014 1 27 2018 Chicago Von Miller 2011 1 27 2016 Denver Justin Houston 2011 3 26 2015 Kansas City Olivier Vernon 2012 3 26 2016 New York G Jason Pierre-Paul 2010 1 28 2017 New York G Chandler Jones 2012 1 27 2017 Arizona Melvin Ingram 2012 1 28 2017 Los Angeles C Calais Campbell 2008 2 31 2017 Jacksonville Carlos Dunlap 2010 2 29 2018 Cincinnati Jadeveon Clowney 2014 1 26 2019 Houston

The players listed in the above table represent the player comparison (player comp) group for creating the market value on a new contract for Jadeveon Clowney. These players are considered “edge” players with position titles as defensive end or outside linebacker. The players in the group were all of similar age when they signed their respective contracts. The players were also drafted in the top 3 rounds of their respective drafts. One name that will not be included is Aaron Donald as he is considered a defensive interior player. These players represent the group of veterans on top market contracts at the “edge rusher” position. The team and Clowney’s agent would like reference these players during contract negotiations.

The most recent signing of Khalil Mack with the Chicago Bears will be the main focus for Clowney’s side regarding the baseline for any contract metrics. The other player contracts were signed in prior years, therefore for those metrics will need to use a cap adjusted average per year (APY) figure.

Note: Player grade, value, awards, game stats represent the two years prior to the respective player signing their market level contract. Example Von Miller signed his contract in 2016. Therefore the grades, value, awards, game stats are from the 2014 & 2015 NFL regular seasons.

Player Grades & Awards

Player Name PFF Grade PFR AV All-Pro Pro Bowl Khalil Mack 92.5/90.2 27 1 2 Von Miller 90.3/92.0 29 1 2 Justin Houston 90.2/90.4 26 1 2 Olivier Vernon 72.8/82.4 14 0 0 Jason Pierre-Paul 69.0/75.4 12 0 0 Chandler Jones 75.5/87.0 20 0 1 Melvin Ingram 70.9/83.6 15 0 0 Calais Campbell 81.6/91.2 29 0 1 Carlos Dunlap 75.3/77.4 19 0 1 Jadeveon Clowney 75.4/87.6 21 0 2

*Numbers in Bold represent the highest in each category.

This table breaks down player grades, value, and player awards over a two year span.

The ProFootball Focus player grades are the overall defensive player grade for the regular season. PFF grades are referenced here as a “piece of the puzzle”. PFF grades are not the end all determining factor, however should be considered within the process of comparison. Clowney experienced a big jump in grading from 2017 to 2018 with a 13.2 grade point increase. This increase along with Clowney’s consistency will be a focal point of Clowney’s agent in negotiations. Compared to each player’s “contract year” Clowney was graded 5th highest in this comparison group.

The next column represents a sum of Pro Football Reference’s Annual Value (AV), a full explanation of the value can be found here. The number in the column is a summation of the two years prior to signing their respective player contract. This metric is not quite as friendly to Clowney when compared to Von Miller and Calais Campbell; yet ranking Clowney 5th among the group as he did with PFF grading.

The All-Pro Player Award column is sourced from the Associated Press (AP) All-Pro team for the two years prior to signing each player’s respective player contract. The Pro Bowl Player Award is also for the two years prior, and only is counted if the player was an original ballot. Player award information sourced from Pro Football Reference. Clowney earned a Pro Bowl Award in 2017 & 2018.

Regular Season Statistics

Player Name Games Missed Snaps S/G Penalties P/G Khalil Mack 32 0 1880 58.8 9 0.3 Von Miller 32 0 1758 54.9 13 0.4 Justin Houston 25 7 1744 69.8 0 0.0 Olivier Vernon 32 0 1794 56.1 13 0.4 Jason Pierre-Paul 20 12 1298 64.9 4 0.2 Chandler Jones 31 1 1804 58.2 1 0.0 Melvin Ingram 32 0 1927 60.2 14 0.4 Calais Campbell 32 0 1767 55.2 8 0.3 Carlos Dunlap 32 0 1716 53.6 6 0.2 Jadeveon Clowney 31 1 1797 58.0 26 0.8

*Snaps sourced from ProFootball Focus, penalty data from NFLPenalties.com. Numbers in Bold represent the highest in each category.

The player comparison group was consistent in being available for their respective teams outside of Jason Pierre-Paul & Justin Houston. Despite Clowney’s slow start on the health front in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, Clowney missed only 1 game through the 2017 & 2018 seasons. Clowney’s snaps per game are in line with Khalil Mack. The biggest issue for Clowney in this table is the amount of penalties. Clowney has almost double the amount of player penalties compared to any one player in the group. The penalties will need to be addressed through coaching and individual player maturity.

Player Name Games Tackles T/G Sacks S/G QB Hits QBH/G Khalil Mack 32 115 3.6 21.5 0.7 48 1.5 Von Miller 32 78 2.4 25 0.8 59 1.8 Justin Houston 25 99 4.0 33 1.3 40 1.6 Olivier Vernon 32 73 2.3 14 0.4 39 1.2 Jason Pierre-Paul 20 56 2.8 8 0.4 23 1.2 Chandler Jones 31 69 2.2 23.5 0.8 39 1.3 Melvin Ingram 32 98 3.1 28.5 0.9 39 1.2 Calais Campbell 32 80 2.5 13 0.4 41 1.3 Carlos Dunlap 32 65 2.0 15.5 0.5 47 1.5 Jadeveon Clowney 31 79 2.5 18.5 0.6 42 1.4

*Statistics sourced from ProFootball Focus and Pro Football Reference.

Now we are getting into the “pass rusher” statistics. As with the other tables the numbers represent a sum of the two years leading up to the player’s respective contract. The table displays both a total number and a rate per game. Justin Houston missed 7 games in two years but was very efficient in the games he did play with tackles and sacks. A common argument against Clowney is “He isn’t a double digit sack guy” and while that may be true; this table highlights that Clowney’s sack & quarterback hit rate is right in line with Khalil Mack. Mack received a top of the market contract despite measuring only 5th in sacks per game and 3rd in QB hits per game. Comparing rates provides more context to the player’s individual performance as compared to a hard total number.

Player Name Games TFL TFL P TFL R TFL/G FF FF/G Khalil Mack 32 29 16 13 0.9 4 0.13 Von Miller 32 25 21 4 0.8 5 0.16 Justin Houston 25 34 27 7 1.4 5 0.20 Olivier Vernon 32 27 13 14 0.8 2 0.06 Jason Pierre-Paul 20 11 5 4 0.6 3 0.15 Chandler Jones 31 26 17 9 0.8 8 0.26 Melvin Ingram 32 24 13 11 0.8 7 0.22 Calais Campbell 32 28 13 15 0.9 2 0.06 Carlos Dunlap 32 19 13 6 0.6 4 0.13 Jadeveon Clowney 31 37 16 21 1.2 3 0.10

*Statistics sourced from ProFootbal Focus, Pro Football Reference, and NFLGSIS.

Information: TFL = Tackle For Loss, TFL P = Tackle For Loss on Pass Plays, TFL R = Tackle For Loss on Rush Plays FF = Forced Fumbles.

This table highlights where Clowney performs well. Clowney has more tackles for loss by a wide margin against the group, averaging over 1 TFL per game. Clowney’s performance in the run game shows here with 21 tackles for loss on run plays.

The potential for a long term Jadeveon Clowney contract is often compared against Khalil Mack’s performance. Beyond the penalty issue, Clowney is right in-line with Mack on a sack per game metric and is above Mack in a tackle for loss per game metric. Khalil Mack did pull in more individual tackles over the two year comparison when compared to Clowney.

One area that is difficult to measure if a player’s ability to play multiple areas on the field. Houston will line up Clowney in the wide 9 technique spot, over a defensive end, standing up on the outside, motioning over a guard, and even taking on the center. Mack, Miller, and Jones are more dedicated outside edge players.

Contract Metrics

Now for the comparison against the player group we need to examine the existing player contracts. The typical player contract metrics to compare against will be Average Per Year (both new money and adjusted), guaranteed money in full at signing (including virtual guarantees), total guarantee (injury, vesting), 2 year and 3 year cash flow. At the end of this examination two contract offers will be presented for a Clowney extension. The expectation is Bus Cook (Clowney’s agent) will shoot to make Clowney the highest paid non-quarterback player in the league topping Khalil Mack. The most common measure used to determine the highest paid player, whether right or wrong, is average per year (APY). Khalil Mack’s 6 year contract with the Chicago Bears came in at $23.5 million in new money APY. Mack’s contract was an extension due to Mack having one year remaining on his rookie player contract.

Some background on Bus Cook the player agent, Cook has represented some very high profile NFL stars. Cook has represented and completed very large contracts including Brett Farve becoming the first $100 million dollar player in the NFL, Calvin Johnson signed the largest contract (at the time) in NFL history with a total of $132 million, and Cook negotiated a contract for Cam Newton work $132 million with $70 million in the first three years. Cook is a no-nonsense type of player agent. Cook is not flashy and keeps his player negotiations away from the media, which is a strong preference for Houston. Cook will not take it easy on Houston.

Player Name Type Year Signed Years Total Value APY (new $) Inflation Adj APY Khalil Mack Extension 2018 6 $ 141,000,000 $ 23,500,000 $ 25,197,517 Von Miller Franchise 2016 6 $ 114,500,000 $ 19,083,333 $ 23,351,795 Justin Houston Franchise 2015 6 $ 101,000,000 $ 16,833,333 $ 22,322,259 Olivier Vernon UFA 2016 5 $ 85,000,000 $ 17,000,000 $ 20,802,473 Chandler Jones Franchise 2017 5 $ 82,500,000 $ 16,500,000 $ 18,772,455 Melvin Ingram Franchise 2017 4 $ 64,000,000 $ 16,000,000 $ 18,203,593 Jason Pierre-Paul Franchise 2017 4 $ 62,000,000 $ 15,000,000 $ 17,065,868 Calais Campbell UFA 2017 4 $ 60,000,000 $ 15,000,000 $ 17,065,868 Carlos Dunlap Extension 2018 3 $ 40,500,000 $ 13,500,000 $ 14,475,169

*Data courtesy of OverTheCap.com

This table shows the high level contract metrics of Total Value, Average Per Year (APY) and Average Per Year (APY) adjusted for salary cap inflation. APY Adjusted For Inflation means raising the APY from the contract at the year of signing to the same percentage that the salary cap has risen over the same time frame. The $23,500,000 APY figure will be one of the metric’s which Clowney’s camp will target to make Clowney the highest paid defensive player in the league.

Player Name Type Year Signed Years Total Value APY (new $) APY % of Cap Khalil Mack Extension 2018 6 $ 141,000,000 $ 23,500,000 13.26% Von Miller Franchise 2016 6 $ 114,500,000 $ 19,083,333 12.29% Justin Houston Franchise 2015 6 $ 101,000,000 $ 16,833,333 11.75% Olivier Vernon UFA 2016 5 $ 85,000,000 $ 17,000,000 10.95% Chandler Jones Franchise 2017 5 $ 82,500,000 $ 16,500,000 9.88% Melvin Ingram Franchise 2017 4 $ 64,000,000 $ 16,000,000 9.58% Jason Pierre-Paul Franchise 2017 4 $ 62,000,000 $ 15,000,000 8.98% Calais Campbell UFA 2017 4 $ 60,000,000 $ 15,000,000 8.98% Carlos Dunlap Extension 2018 3 $ 40,500,000 $ 13,500,000 7.62%

*Data courtesy of OverTheCap.com

Here we show a variation of the APY metric. This is APY expressed as a percentage of the NFL salary cap in the year the contract was signed. This shows how strong Houston and Miller’s contract were at the time of signing as compared to Melvin Ingram a year or two later. Houston and Ingram’s APY are near equal but when compared on this metric, Houston’s contract was much stronger.

Player Name Type Total GTD Total GPY % Total GTD Khalil Mack Extension $90,000,000 $15,000,000 63.8% Von Miller Franchise $70,000,000 $11,666,667 61.1% Chandler Jones Franchise $53,000,000 $10,600,000 64.2% Justin Houston Franchise $52,500,000 $ 8,750,000 52.0% Olivier Vernon UFA $52,500,000 $10,500,000 61.8% Melvin Ingram Franchise $42,000,000 $10,500,000 65.6% Jason Pierre-Paul Franchise $40,000,000 $10,000,000 64.5% Calais Campbell UFA $30,000,000 $ 7,500,000 50.0% Carlos Dunlap Extension $22,000,000 $ 7,333,333 54.3%

*Data courtesy of OverTheCap.com

Most often when the media reports on contract details the first two numbers you read will be APY and guaranteed money. Without knowing the exact details guaranteed money can be misleading. Essentially this does not mean fully guaranteed at signing, rather meaning the money has some type of guarantee (usually injury) that will vest into a full guarantee at a specified date later in the player contract. A player contract may have $45 million guaranteed at signing, with another $30 million that will become fully guaranteed in the third or fourth year of the contract. This are also called a rolling guarantee.

Player Name Type Full GTD Full GPY % Full GTD Khalil Mack Extension $60,000,000 $10,000,000 42.6% Von Miller Franchise $42,000,000 $ 7,000,000 36.7% Chandler Jones Franchise $31,000,000 $ 6,200,000 37.6% Justin Houston Franchise $32,500,000 $ 5,415,667 32.2% Olivier Vernon UFA $40,000,000 $ 8,000,000 47.1% Melvin Ingram Franchise $34,000,000 $ 8,500,000 53.1% Jason Pierre-Paul Franchise $29,000,000 $ 7,250,000 46.8% Calais Campbell UFA $30,000,000 $ 7,500,000 50.0% Carlos Dunlap Extension $18,000,000 $ 6,000,000 44.4%

*Data courtesy of OverTheCap.com

One of the most critical aspects of the player contract is the money considered fully guaranteed at signing (also including virtual guarantees). This includes signing bonus, salary guaranteed for skill/cap/injury, and lump sum roster bonuses. Note that roster bonuses in the lump sum nature are generally ear marked to become full guaranteed and/or paid 3 days after the contract is signing. The NFL treats any bonuses inside the first 3 days as “signing bonuses” and are prorated over the contract, up to 5 years. While a lump sum roster bonus may not be fully guaranteed at signing, but since it will become guaranteed days after the contract it is considered a virtual guarantee. From a hard number aspect Khalil Mack’s contract including a $60 million full guarantee was amazing. Melvin Ingram’s contract holds a strong full guarantee percentage at 53.7%. Due to the nature of how Houston structure’s their contracts the full guarantee percentage is generally a bit higher than a traditional heavy signing bonus contract.

Player Name Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Khalil Mack $27,154,000 $42,654,000 $59,854,000 $77,100,000 Von Miller $ – $25,500,000 $42,000,000 $61,000,000 Chandler Jones $ – $22,000,000 $34,500,000 $51,000,000 Justin Houston $ – $21,500,000 $36,500,000 $53,000,000 Olivier Vernon $ – $29,000,000 $41,000,000 $54,000,000 Melvin Ingram $ – $22,750,000 $34,000,000 $50,000,000 Jason Pierre-Paul $ – $22,500,000 $35,000,000 $49,500,000 Calais Campbell $ – $15,000,000 $33,000,000 $45,000,000 Carlos Dunlap $12,500,000 $20,600,000 $29,400,000 $40,500,000

*Data courtesy of OverTheCap.com

This table shows the cash flow break down (cumulative) through the first 3 years on each player contract. The 2 year and 3 year cash flow metrics are very important when comparing against other contract. Due to the nature of the NFL, players rarely play out a long term contract such as these. A NFL contract provides strong money up front (both in cash flow and guarantee), for the player, in exchange for favorable terms on the back end of the contract. This may lead to the player feeling under paid in the back end of the contract if their performance remains strong. On the flip side teams and agents may fluff up the back end of the contract to inflate the APY to make the contract look better than it is, thus making it difficult to retain the player at such a high salary. 2 and 3 years is probably a good average life span for a veteran player contract, making the cash earned in those years very important.

Mack and Dunlap received extensions therefore you will see a Year 0 column since those players had a year remaining on their previous contract. The extension is expressing the amount of new money (which excludes money already set to be earned from the previous contract) beyond old money.

Contract Proposals

Before we outline the two contract proposals for Clowney, identifying the goals of each side is important.

Contract Metric Goals Area Player Team Years 6 6 Total Value $ 142.50m $135.00m Average Per Year $ 24.50m $ 22.50m Full Guarantee $ 65.00m $ 55.00m Total Guarantee $ 95.00m $ 85.00m

For this exercise both sides are agreed upon length of 6 years but vary in the other metrics. Obviously the team wanting to come in lower while the agent is aiming for the stars. The league Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) has an obscure rule for contracts extending beyond the final year of the CBA, which is 2020, stipulating that subsequent years may not have an annual increase beyond 30%. Example: If the player’s salary in 2020 was $20 million, then the player salary can only increase by $6 million in each subsequent year of the contract (excluding signing bonus). This contract proposal will extend beyond the current expiration of the CBA, therefore we need to ensure the contract meets the 30% rule.

It is also worth noting how Houston prefers to structure their contracts. Houston transitioned into the hybrid cash model in 2013 with the J.J. Watt contract extension. The hybrid cash model utilizes zero signing bonus on lower value contracts, small signing bonus on mid level contracts, and modest signing bonuses on high level contracts. This is in addition to lump sum roster bonuses in year 1 and/or year 2; coupled with guaranteed salaries in year 1 for lower contracts, and year 1 & year 2 guarantees on higher level contracts. Prior to this transition Houston relied on a heavy signing bonus structure with minimal salary guarantees. The hybrid offers a flat cap flow structure allowing a team to front load the cap flow if needed with little dead money on the back end; whereas a signing bonus model will have a lower cap figure in year 1 followed by a raising cap flow with more dead money in the back end of the contract.

Proposal #1

6 year contract worth $142,500,000 in total.

Average Per Year of $23,750,000

Full Guarantee of $64,000,000

Total Guarantee of $91,000,000

2 Year Cash Flow of $59,000,000

3 Year Cash Flow of $77,750,000

Every metric tops Khalil Mack’s contract except the APY % of Cap Metric, but falls below the Player Agent’s goals as noted above.

Year Base SB Pro RB PGRB Cap Charge Cap % 2019 $ 12,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 9,250,000 $ 750,000 $24,000,000 12.63% 2020 $ 17,250,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 9,000,000 $ 750,000 $29,000,000 14.50% 2021 $ 18,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ – $ 750,000 $20,750,000 9.88% 2022 $ 18,500,000 $ 2,000,000 $ – $ 750,000 $21,250,000 9.66% 2023 $ 19,500,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 1,000,000 $1,000,000 $23,500,000 10.22% 2024 $ 22,000,000 $ – $ 1,000,000 $1,000,000 $24,000,000 10.00%

Details:

$10 million signing bonus.

Base Salaries in 2019 & 2020 full guarantee at signing (skill/cap/injury).

$6.5 million of the 2021 base salary is full guarantee at signing (skill/cap/injury).

2019 Roster Bonus guaranteed and paid 3 days after signing (virtual guarantee).

2020 Roster Bonus becomes full guaranteed (skill/cap/injury) on October 1, 2019 and paid 5th day of the 2020 league year. (virtual guarantee).

Remaining $11.5 million of 2021 base salary becomes full guarantee on the 5th day of the 2020 league year.

$14.5 million of the 2022 base salary becomes full guarantee on the 5th day of the 2021 league year.

$750,000 paid per game active (46 man game day) in 2019-2022, and $1,000,000 paid per game active (46 man game day) in 2023-2024.

Roster Bonuses (lump sum) in 2023 & 2024 due on the 5th day of the respective league year.

This is a strong contract offer that would make Clowney the highest paid non-quarterback player in the league. Clowney would earn $42 million in the first year of the contract. The contract is heavy on the cap charge in year 1 and year 2 at 12.63% and 14.50% respectively. This is done for a reason. This leverages the final two years of Deshaun Watson’s rookie contract. Year 3 and Year 4 of the contract the cap charge drops back down below 10% when the team would be signing Watson to a new contract extension, allowing the team to front load Watson’s deal as well.

The per game roster bonus portion provides the team with protection should Clowney have an injury and miss game time. Houston generally includes per game roster bonuses in most of their veteran contracts, and Clowney should be no exception due to his previous injury history in 2014 & 2015.

The earliest “out” for Houston would be 2021 with a $14.5 million dead money charge (portion of guaranteed salary plus remaining pro-rated signing bonus money) if the team released Clowney prior to the 5th day of the 2021 league year. The team will have a two year decision point in 2021 to release Clowney or keep him on the roster through the 2022 season. The lump sum roster bonuses in Year 5 & Year 6 require the team to make a decision early in free agency. The team would need to release by the 5th day of the league year to avoid paying Clowney the $1 million roster bonus, thus placing him back on the market while free agency is still active.

Proposal #2 (variation on #1)

6 year contract worth $142,500,000 in total.

Average Per Year of $23,750,000

Full Guarantee of $64,000,000

Total Guarantee of $91,000,000

2 Year Cash Flow of 59,500,000

3 Year Cash Flow of $77,500,000

Every metric tops Khalil Mack’s contract except the APY % of Cap Metric, but falls below the Player Agent’s goals as noted above.

Year Base SB Pro RB PGRB Cap Charge Cap % 2019 $ 10,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 500,000 $20,500,000 10.79% 2020 $ 15,500,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 6,500,000 $ 500,000 $26,500,000 13.25% 2021 $ 18,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ – $ 500,000 $22,500,000 10.71% 2022 $ 18,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ – $ 750,000 $22,750,000 10.34% 2023 $ 20,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ – $1,000,000 $25,000,000 10.87% 2024 $ 22,000,000 $ – $ 2,250,000 $1,000,000 $25,250,000 10.52%

Details:

$20 million signing bonus.

Base Salaries in 2019 & 2020 full guarantee at signing (skill/cap/injury).

$6.0 million of the 2021 base salary is full guarantee at signing (skill/cap/injury).

2019 Roster Bonus guaranteed and paid 3 days after signing (virtual guarantee).

2020 Roster Bonus becomes full guaranteed (skill/cap/injury) on December 1, 2019 and paid 5th day of the 2020 league year. (virtual guarantee).

Remaining $12.0 million of 2021 base salary becomes full guarantee on the 5th day of the 2020 league year.

$12.25 million of the 2022 base salary becomes full guarantee on the 5th day of the 2021 league year.

$500,000 paid per game active (46 man game day) in 2019-2021, $750,000 paid per game active (46 man game day) in 2022, and $1,000,000 paid per game active (46 man game day) in 2023-2024.

Roster Bonuses (lump sum) in 2024 due on the 5th day of the respective league year.

The variation on this contract is relatively minor due to the scale of the contract. The signing bonus is raise, the 2 year cash flow is raised by $500k, but the guarantees and 3 year cash flow come in lower than variation #1. The team does not have as much protection with the per game roster bonuses in the first three years; however the roster bonus in year 5 has been removed. This allows the team more freedom on timing if the player is to be released in the the 2023 league year. The cap structure is not as heavy in year 1 and year 2, and is a bit more flat in years 3, 4, and 5.

Ultimately there are two paths for Houston and Jadeveon Clowney…new top market level contract or two years on the franchise tag. The first option costs the team a bunch of money and keeps the player and locker room happy while maintaining a top level talent; the second option costs only a fraction of option 1 but could disrupt the locker room and cause additional unwanted media attention to the team for months at a time.

On social media (@TexansCap) the most often argument is Clowney hasn’t performed like Khalil Mack. The above tables support that Clowney has similar production as Mack in some areas, and better production in other areas. It makes no sense to compare what Mack (or other players) have achieved in the years post contract signing. To ensure the comparisons are equal we use the two years prior to contract signing. We all need to look past the idea that Clowney isn’t worth this contract because “he isn’t a double digit sack player”.

Thanks,

-TC

Sources:

OverTheCap.com

ProfootballFocus.com

Pro-Football-Reference.com

NFLGSIS.com

FootballOutsiders.com

PlayerProfiler.com