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The coronavirus curve is beginning to “flatten” but Northern Ireland could be facing lockdown for another 18 months, a leading GP is warning.

Dr Tom Black, Chairman of the British Medical Association in Northern Ireland, said the public here should be congratulated for maintaining measures such as social distancing but cautioned that “we need to dig in and stick at it” to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed.

Dr Black said GPs are seeing fewer patients “presenting with Covid-19 symptoms” and Covid centres are experiencing a decrease in referrals, while admissions to hospitals are also falling.

He added: “Those three steps, GPs, Covid centres and hospital admissions seeing a reduction in numbers all indicate a flattening of the curve. Numbers in ICU beds are also down from their peak.”

Intensive care bed capacity has not been reached, with figures released by the Department of Health over the weekend showing 41 beds remained unoccupied. But Dr Black said “we could still see a peak in deaths” this week coming as people succumb to the infection, usually around ten or so days after admission to hospital.

He noted figures from the weekend which showed that 36 ICU beds were occupied with Covid-19 patients, down from a peak of 58 around a week and a half ago.

He added: “Sadly we will continue to see people dying so there is no room for complacency. Hopefully we will not see the second wave until winter, by which time we should have built up stocks of PPE as well as capacity in the system. But if we take our foot off the pedal the second wave could come in May or June.

“It is still endemic in the population so we cannot relax things for 18 months yet, not unless there’s a vaccine. We also need more testing and contact tracing. We are lagging behind Germany in this regard.”

Dr Black suggested there could be some steps taken to “restart the economy”, citing the re-opening of some shops in Germany but that any such relaxation of the lockdown would have to maintain significant levels of social distancing.