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Peace in Syria has been elusive, what started as an act of defiance of the Syrian people against their government, slipped violently into a civil war and then devolved into a proxy war of regional players into a near global conflict.

Anyone who has wondered why peace has repeatedly fallen prey to war, need only look at the players and complexity of the issues involved to quickly realize the dangerous road the region and the world are traveling on. For the first time since World War II, Russian and American military assets are operating within a few miles of each other with only a military hotline to keep their forces from accidentally firing on one another and possibly igniting a horrendous chain of events that could spiral into nuclear war. Then there is the complexity of Turkey, a member of NATO, and their battle with the Kurds, mix that in with Iranian forces and Israel right next door and you have either a great Novel or a recipe for a third World War.

The United States got involved in the war to overthrow the Syrian government led by Bashar Al Assad and to stop ISIS from taking over. The involvement of the U.S. enraged Russia who is a traditional ally of the current Syrian government. Russia sent in their military to protect the Assad government and to stop ISIS. Unfortunately this is where things have gotten incredibly dangerous. The United States is trying to work with local rebel forces that are against the Assad government while also battling ISIS. The Russian military is there to battle ISIS while protecting the Assad forces. This means there is a very thin veil of interpretation that goes into deciding who the US attacks and who Russia attacks. Russia views any rebels threatening the government of Assad as an enemy, INCLUDING the rebels aiding the United States, while the U.S. views any forces threatening the rebels they are working with as a threat. This pits the United States nearly completely against Russian forces and this is where the danger lies. It does not take a lot of imagination to see an accidental skirmish between Russian and U.S. forces building into a broader firefight and getting out of control into a full blown conflict between NATO and Russia.

How to stop this war? Unfortunately both the U.S.and Russia have a lot riding on this fight. Russia wants to stop the United States meddling in the Middle East while preserving an ally and maintain their military presence. Russia has a couple military bases in western Syria and a Naval base in Tartus. The U.S. has expended a great deal of resources into overthrowing the Assad government and having Assad stay would be seen as a huge loss to both democracy in the Middle East and a loss to Russia.

One way Russia and the U.S. could de-escalate, is to get both the U.S. and Russia to declare victory against ISIS and pull their forces completely out of Syria. They can then both go home and declare the “fight with ISIS” over. This is a win-win for Russia and the U.S. and keeps the world out of a nuclear disaster.

Image By Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0, Link