NEW DELHI: If Congress was a tad overconfident about facing Narendra Modi , it was because of the belief that the presence of the Hindutva strongman in the field would automatically polarize Muslims in its favour while Aam Aadmi Party would cut into votes of the middle-classes drifting to the saffron fold.As the two factors went on test on Thursday, the feedback within is that Muslims are not coming to Congress as the principal choice while the party is vulnerable to the rabid polarizing tendencies of “secular rivals” even in seats where it was otherwise strongly placed.The evidence in Delhi, western UP and Maharashtra carry portents for critical phases of voting in the coming weeks where Congress was banking on Muslim consolidation and AAP ’s resilience among the middle-classes to offset the anti-incumbency against UPA.While Modi has emerged a key determinant in the voting pattern of Muslims, the community is not plumping for Congress which is the sole national challenger to the BJP.Instead, the strong desire to check the saffron march is also making Muslims review their support for Congress even on seats where it is strongly placed because of the poor perception about its winnability. Muslim votes would decide the Congress fate in Ghaziabad, Chandni Chowk and North-East Delhi and the party is not too hopeful.Ironically, Congress is proving vulnerable to the rabid “secularism” of “secular” rivals. The otherwise centrist party is unable to match the rhetoric of the likes of Samajwadi Party and BSP despite the odd “chop Modi to pieces” comment by its Saharanpur candidate.A defensive Congress is sniffing conspiracy behind Azam Khan’s statement in Ghaziabad that “Kargil was won by Muslim soldiers”. He was seen to be stoking stronger religious polarization that would push Hindus towards the saffron camp to the detriment of Congress’s Raj Babbar who was on a good wicket. For Samajwadis, who are not a player here, sabotaging the Congress is also a victory.With voting beginning in the heartland states, Congress quarters are disappointed that its hopes of Muslim polarization in its favour could be belied even in its stronger seats like in Uttar Pradesh.The fear in Congress is that it could be doubly disappointed on the AAP front. The party had hoped that the poor and dalits it lost to AAP in the Delhi elections would return to its fold in the parliamentary polls but not only are they staying put in the newbie’s tent but even Muslims are showing an inclination for Arvind Kejriwal ’s outfit. The double erosion of its core vote base may sink Congress in the capital.AAP seems to be letting down the Congress on its surge with the middle-classes. The dip in perception about AAP outside Delhi strikes at the heart of the Congress hope that the newbie would do to BJP what Raj Thackeray did in Mumbai in the 2009 elections – tap the votes drifting to the BJP.Kejriwal is seen to have failed to gain traction with the middle-classes and the youth in most urban centres.According to Congressmen, the failure on Muslim-AAP front would severely hobble the party in the elections where it is facing serious odds. It was the confidence on Muslim front and AAP that made Congress strategists take the battle lightly, deciding on starting the campaign late even as Modi hit the ground, estimating that it would only start early polarization of minorities to its benefit.