26-19-5. 16th place in the league. 6th in the western conference and 3rd in the Pacific Division. That is the Flames record and position through 50 games in the 2019-20 season. A .570 point percentage. After a season where they were 50-25-7, It seems a far cry from where they were expected to be. While they are 1 point out of 1st in the division they are also 3 points away from missing the playoffs entirely. With big pieces TJ Brodie and Travis Hamonic on expiring contracts, Brad Treliving is facing a tough decision, Who to sign and who to trade. Both are currently on sweetheart deals and will be paid much more next year and for much longer the may be appetizing. But, maybe Treliving should make the toughest decision and trade both of them.

Now I can hear you yelling"Our window is now! We need to push for a playoff spot?".

But Is it? Do we? Do you really have confidence in this team?

While the Flames have had some great individual seasons since the start of Brad Trelivings Tenure in Calgary, Consistency has been an issue. Year to year Consistency has been an issue. The Flames have never made the playoffs in consecutive years under Brad Treliving and that still may be true after this year. This season though, has drained more Flames fans liquor cabinets in a long time due to how infuriating it is to watch the team play like world beaters one night and slop the next. Since 2014-2015 the start of Brad Trelivings tenure, 80 teams have made the playoffs. If the Flames make the playoffs this year, that .570 through the first 50 games will be tied for 61st out of the 80 play off teams at 50 games. Going back a full decade, a .570 point percentage is tied for 124 worst out of 160. If the Flames keep up their inconsistent ways and stay at or around .570, at the trade deadline and 63 games they will be 138th out of 160.

So I ask you, Is this really the Flames window? Is this when the Flames need to push for a playoff spot? Does this team inspire confidence in you to win it all? When they are a Middling team in the league. An inconsistent mess who shut down the high flying Maple leafs one night only to be squashed by the lowly Senators the next. A team with bottom of the league scoring, shutout for a league leading 6 times. This is the team who needs to make the playoffs? Whose Window to win is now? There are Three reasons That just isn't true.

"All you have to do is make the playoffs! Anything can happen if you do! Look at the Blues Last year!" I hear you scream ignoring how many empty bottles are next to the TV because of the Flames.

Ahhh yes…The Blues...

The Blues

Let’s talk about the Blues. Yes, they were in Last place last year at Christmas They weren’t suppose to be though. They had Traded for Ryan O’Reilly at the Draft and were looking to make a lot of noise but, Jake Allen faltered and Mike Yeo was fired and they were last in the league at Christmas. Had Binnington not emerged the Blues would have stayed there. Many people point to them and say they are proof that anything can happen. I look at them and say that they are proof that you need to know when to hold them and when to fold them. Let's all pile into the Magic School Bus and go for a trip back in time.

It’s the trade deadline 2017. Most teams have played 61 games and the Blues have a 31-25-5 record for 67 points and a .549 point % good for 16th in the league, 7th in the westen conference and 4th in the central division. Sound familiar? Doug Armstrong looks down at his team and has a decision to make. Buy at the deadline and have his middling, inconsistent team make a push and lose expiring D man Kevin Shattenkirk at the end of the season for nothing or Sell. He looks, realizes that a top 6 Rental is not going to fix his team and decides to sell since losing Shattenkirk for nothing isn’t an option and signing him long term won’t work either as the team has Parayko and Pietrangelo locked up long term. The trade is as follows:

Traded from St. Louis Blues:

Pheonix Copley and Kevin Shattenkirk

Washington Capitals

Zach Sanford, Brad Malone, conditional draft pick, round 1 pick in the 2017 draft and conditional round 2 pick in the 2019 draft (Condition was not met, but as per cap friendly the condition was: If Capitals re-sign Shattenkirk or advance to 2016/17 Eastern Conference Finals and if Shattenkirk plays in 50% of the first two rounds)

The Blues don’t make anymore moves and plummet down the standings finishing the season 15-4-2 making the playoffs with 99 points. Huh? Yes. They made the playoffs. After being middling and inconsistent, the Blues went on a tear. Why? Who knows. Did the lack of faith from the GM motivate the players to show that they were worth it? Maybe. Did Jake Allen go from a .905 save % to a .944%? Yes.

Whether they made the playoffs or not doesn’t matter, what matters is what they did with the assets they got for Shattenkirk. First is Brad Malone: he was nothing, currently in Edmonton's system.

Second is Zach Sanford. He’s a Current Blue. A right shot Power forward on pace for 31 points.

Lastly a 1st Round pick. This pick was traded With a 2018 1st and Jori Lethera who had 2 years left at 4.7 million for Brayden Schenn. The pick ended up being Morgan Frost.

By looking at his team and Saying "not this year" Armstrong traded a player he wasn’t going to reasonably be able to keep in Kevin Shattenkirk, a 1st round pick and dump a poor contract in Jori Lethera for Zach Sanford (a third line power forward) and Brayden Schenn (A 60 point two way player with term left on his contract).

Schenn got 70 points for the Blues next year and 54 in 2018-19 while contributing 12 points on the way to the Stanley Cup.

Let’s get back on the bus and move forward in time to the 2018 Trade deadline. The Blues at the deadline are 34-23-4 with a .590 point % but have been 11-8-2 in the last 20 games and Doug Armstrong again has to make a decision about whether to go for it or trade an expiring contract in Paul Stastny. The team has been Inconsistent and He decides again, not this year. He trades Stastny to Winnipeg for as follows:

Traded from St. Louis Blues:

Paul Stastny ($3,500,000 retained - 50%)

Traded from Winnipeg Jets

Erik Foley and a 2018 conditional 1st round pick.

That first was swapped with Toronto so the Blues could move up and become Domink Bokk, while Erik Foley was signed out of Providence College but appears to have run into injury troubles and has yet to play pro.

The Blues weren’t as lucky to make the playoffs this year though. Was it because the team thought they were doing well and were deflated that the GM subtracted from the team instead of added? Maybe. Did Carter Hutton go from .938 save % to .896 save % while Jake allen rocked a steady .906 through the season? Yes. But it doesn’t matter. Because what matters is what happened on July 1st.

With a new young shiny Dominik Bokk added to the system by way of the Pick they got for Stastny and swapped with Toronto, the Blues and Armstrong felt emboldened to trade a slightly used and much less shinier Tage Thompson and some other pieces. The trade was as follows:

Traded from Buffalo Sabres

Ryan O’Reilly

Traded from St Louis Blues

Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, round 1 pick in the 2019 draft (Ryan Johnson) and round 2 pick in the 2021 draft

For the Blues, Sobatka and Berglund were two 30 point guys for the Blues that were hitting the wrong side of 30 and quickly showed it in Buffalo. Thompson was drafted two years earlier and had fallen out of favour with the Blues and looks like he isn’t having the most fun time in Buffalo. At the time, the 1st and 2nd were magic beans. All that for Ryan O’Reilly.

I’ll repeat that because in retrospect it's an amazing deal. All of that, Two aging Forwards Who have since dropped off a cliff or dropped out of the league, a Former First rounder and a Future 1st and 2nd were traded for Ryan O’Reilly.

Now we know what happened next. Blues were last, then Binnington did a goalie, yadda yadda yadda, Blues win the Cup. That's what matters. That’s the only thing that matters. Not a deep run, or a second round appearance. A Cup. If you don’t think you are Gonna win it all, do not go for it. The Blues had turned two Expiring contracts, a former 1st round pick and two 30 point players approaching 30 into Braydon Schenn, Ryan O’Reilly, Zach Sanford and Dominik Bokk. All because they were aware enough to say that they were not good enough. The Blues would not have won in 2019 if they didn’t look at their team, do the prudent thing and say "Not this year" in 2017 and 2018 and traded expiring contracts for players that could help them win down the line.

The Flames have an opportunity to do what the Blues did in two years in one. By Trading Brodie and Hamonic they can get assets they need to acquire impact forwards with term or under team control, that will better help the team win and address glaring holes in the line up. There is the concern that trading both players creates a new hole in the line up. If the Flames want to, they can always circle back on Hamonic or Brodie on July 1st. But if they don’t, that’s fine too. The hole that losing Brodie and Hamonic creates may happen anyways if the Flames keep one or both of them through to April in an attempt to go on a run. Until they are signed though, the thought must be that they can be lost for nothing. With Giordano, Hanifan and Andersson Signed to long term deals, with Kylington looking more and more like an NHL player and Valimaki waiting on the IR for his leg to heal and resume stunning us with his poise on the ice, there is only 1 spot open on Defense for the 2020-21 season. With a Free agency class that looks to Include Pietrangelo, Barrie and Vantanen on July 1 2020, the defense has NHL ready players ready to take on more responsibility and a good free agency class that makes any concern about the Flames defense easily fixable either with a long term, mid term or short term solution. The Flames forward group has a glaring Issue and hole with right handed wingers that is not going to be fixed internally or externally through the Free Agent market. With the assets that they recieve for Brodie and Hamonic, that hole can be paved over with a long term solution at the draft either with a drafted player or by parlaying those picks for an impact winger.

"What if there are no impact forwards available? Johnny’s Contract is up soon! And Gio will be even OLDER! We still have to win now!" I hear you yelling.

July 1st 2021

Many people think the Flames window to win begins and will end With Johnny and his Contract. There are also whispers that he wants to leave after its done and if that's true then the Flames need to start planning now. Johnny is first eligible to sign an extension on July 1st 2021 as his contract expires 2022. If he refuses to sign an extension at that time, The Flames need to trade him during the summer of 2021 to maximize the return rather then hold him to the trade deadline and trade him for less or let him walk one year later on July 1st 2022. If he wants to sign in Calgary again, it’s going to be for a lot more than what he's making now and the Flames have to start planning now, especially since Matthew Tkachuk is an RFA the same season Johnny becomes a UFA. Depending on how the cap raises over the next 2 years and how he performs, Johnny’s Contract may range from 9.5-11.5 million a year while Tkachuk may be 8-10 million. Whatever happens, whether the Flames have two high end players needing new, expensive deals, or if they have one high end player leaving, they will need an injection of young, cheap talented Players to fill the gaps created by a tight cap or absent star. Those types of players do not fall on your lap. They need to be drafted and developed. If a High impact Player isn’t available to trade for this year at the draft for the assets that Hamonic and Brodie bring in, then that’s Okay. The Draft picks can be used to draft players that will be ready just as Johnny gets more expensive or leaves. Making it so that if Johnny leaves, the team’s Window does not leave with him.

Expansion Draft





In just over 18 months The Calgary Flames and the rest of the league will be in a familiar but uncomfortable position. They will have to name which members of the team are worth saving and which members they are okay with giving up for free to the yet unnamed Seattle expansion team. For the Flames , It will feel like a book end to an era.

At the time of 2017 Expansion draft they had Just finished the first year of Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau’s Multi year deals, Mikael Backlund was in the finishing the 2nd year of a 3 year deal that probably paid him too little. They had Two Great young D men in Dougie Hamilton, a right shot, and TJ brodie, a left shot, in the middle of long term Deals and once again they had no Idea who was starting in net the next season. In 2021, instead of starting those great contracts, they will be ending them. At the time of the expansion Draft, Johnny, Tkachuk and Gio will have 1 year left each and as said above, be eligible for extensions on July 1st. Mikael Backlund will be in the middle of a deal that will probably be paying him a little too much. They will have two great young D men, A right shot and a Left shot, in Hanifan and Andersson in the middle of long term Deals. And with Rittich’s contract up, the team will again be unsure of who will be in the starters crease the following season. While everything was Starting in 2017, everything will be ending in 2021 and the Expansion draft puts added pressure to that book end by stealing a player from the team for free. Just like in 2017, at the 2021 expansion draft teams will be able to protect a forward/defenseman/goalie split of 7-3-1 or 8 skaters and 1 goalie. Any not protected can be plucked off the roster. Except players that have less than 2 years NHL/AHL experience. Those players are exempt. That means that Flames fans wont have to worry about any players taken in the 2020 Draft being plucked from the team.

Looking at the Players the Flames have under contract for 2022 or who are RFA’s before then and will still be under team control, they would most likely Protect, Johnny Gaudreau(So they can resign him or trade him July 1st), Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane. Milan Lucic May have to be protected, if he does not waive his NMC or isn’t LTIRetired. Treliving did say though, when he acquired Lucic that they had discussed Lucic’s NMC and had come up with a plan. In 2021 it will be hard to say if Backlund will be worth his contract. On Defence, Hanifan, Andersson and Valimaki Will most likely be protected. That would leave Giordano and Kylington unprotected.

"That’s Blasphemy! You can leave Gio unprotected." some may say.

Well you can, and as much as we may all like to think that the "C" on his Jersey stands for Cyborg, it doesn’t and Father time is undefeated. Gio may not be worth protecting at the time. But lets say he is. If the Flames trade Brodie and Hamonic now, and there is no worthwhile Forwards to add to the team through a trade at this draft, The Calgary Flames can go to 8 skaters Route. Protecting the 4 Big guys and the 4 Dmen. This would also leave Dube and Magnipane unprotected though and Let Seattle Pick them, Backlund, Kylington or whatever scraps Calgary has added to be Expansion Draft Compliant. If the Flames do find a worthwhile Forward, and pick the 7-3-1 format the most they can loss at the Expansion Draft is one of Dube, mangiapane, Kylington, an Aging Gio or an aging backlund..

"I still don’t like essentially giving up on this season" You may say.

I don’t either, but the Flames play this year has not inspired confidence. If it continues up to the trade deadline, the best thing for the team may be to trade Brodie and Hamonic and collect as many assets you can and trade them for a impact NHL player at the draft like the Blues did or keep the draft picks and start to prepare for a time where Calgary’s Stars have either left or gotten more expensive. Let this season sort itself out. Maybe The GM showing no confidence in the team will kick them in the ass to get going at a consistent pace. Maybe it will break their spirit, and they falter lower in the standings and get a better draft pick. Knowing the hockey gods and their twisted sense of humour, the Flames would trade Hamonic and Brodie to fellow Pacific teams fighting inconsistency and fighting for a playoff spot and the Flames make the playoffs while those teams miss. I mean stranger things have happened, St louis was in last place...