Texas 2016 exit poll

You can see at the top of this story the national age map, and it’s clear that the senior vote will be hugely determinative of who wins November’s election. Not only are they (mostly) Republican, but they are the most likely to vote. Any slippage in that number, whether be it from defections to the Democrats, or death, will be meaningful. If the death rate is in the million+ range, as many experts fear, that could very well decide not just the presidential race, but key Senate, House, and down-ballot races as well. It could even speed the Blueing of America.

For example, Texas is a youthful state, as you can see to the right. But that’s because of the huge number of Latinos—the fastest-growing demographic group in the state. The number of white people in Texas is shrinking as a percentage of its population, and will soon be eclipsed by a Latino plurality. So how does that shake out, vote-wise? You can see the Texas 2016 exit polls results on the right, in a contest that Trump won by just nine points.

Georgia 2016 exit poll



The state is already accelerating toward purple status. Losing people who favor Republicans by 29-points would be devastating to the GOP’s electoral chances—certainly in the midterm, but perhaps even in the short term! Same goes for Georgia, where Democrats are further along turning the state Blue.

You can see to the right that Democrats do significantly better among the 18-44 range than they do in Texas. But the gap with 65+ voters is even wider, at 36 points. They were even a slightly larger percentage of the voting poll in Georgia than than in Texas.

Hillary Clinton lost the state by 6 points in 2016. Stacey Abrams lost it within the margin of fraud and suppression in 2018. It’s running closer than 2016 in many polls this cycle. Again, if Georgia loses a significant number of seniors to the coronavirus, it would materially impact the ability of Republicans to win statewide, further accelerating the state’s trajectory to purple status. (And remember, Georgia has two Senate seats in play this cycle.)

SO, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, why can’t Republicans take this pandemic seriously? Instead, they do everything possible to facilitate its spread and destruction! Heck, there’s a House-passed bill sitting at the Senate that Trump has promised to sign, and yet Mitch McConnell recessed the Senate to go on vacation, because he doesn’t give a shit.

It is huge irony that Donald Trump thinks COVID-19 is a plot to damage his reelection bid, when in fact, it is his refusal and inability to act that may have the biggest impact in the end—not just by reminding people the consequences of electing bigoted ignoramus reality stars to the White House, but by literally killing his strongest supporters.

So it’s liberals screaming, pleading, and begging for Republicans to take this seriously, precisely because we care about people and don’t want to see them needlessly suffer and die over a natural disaster that, while not preventable, could see its impact significantly mitigated.