Anger over alleged election fraud is spreading further afield as ridings with close results and alleged suspicious phone calls targeting voters are shaping up to become potential battlegrounds in the continuing “robo-call” saga.

As political parties continue to name more ridings in which there were reports of voter suppression, an examination of election results in ridings where seats were won by thin margins shows where the alleged dirty tricks campaign may have affected election outcomes.

In six sample ridings — out of the 55 that the Liberals and the NDP say had reports of suspicious or harassing calls during the campaign — most incumbents, nearly all Liberals, lost by thin margins, and in many cases, saw support drop substantially compared to the 2008 general election results.

Although it’s unclear what effect any of the alleged phone calls had on election results, opposition MPs say voters were deterred and are calling for an independent probe into the allegations.

In the Ontario riding of Nipissing—Timiskaming, for example, Liberal incumbent Anthony Rota was unseated by Conservative candidate Jay Aspin by just 18 votes. Rota says “a light went on” when he later learned of calls, allegedly from Elections Canada, telling voters their polling locations had changed.

“We were the closest riding in the country but it’s not about Nipissing—Timiskaming, it’s about the electoral system,” Rota said. “What worries me is that this group, whoever they are, if they get away with it this time, then the next election they’ll try it again. Then we’re no better than a Third World banana republic.”

Aspin refused to comment Wednesday, but told the North Bay Nugget earlier this week that his party has condemned the practice and said anyone found to have participated in or authorized those types of calls should be charged. A Conservative spokesperson on Wednesday said the party is cooperating with Elections Canada and is unaware of any other investigations “despite the unsubstantiated smears from the Liberals and NDP.”

Candidates of all political stripes in the last election employed live or automated call centres to reach voters. Elections Canada has been investigating the use of Edmonton-based RackNine Inc. to place calls to voters in Guelph that directed them to the wrong polling station. Former employees in Thunder Bay with The Responsive Marketing Group have suggested they may have been asked unwittingly to do the same when calling electors primarily in Ontario.

In Etobicoke Centre, former Liberal MP Borys Wrzesnewskyj, who lost to Conservative candidate Ted Opitz by 26 votes, has asked the Ontario Superior Court of Justice to overturn the result and declare a by-election in the riding.

Wrzesnewskyj has alleged mistakes by Elections Canada officials and “irregularities, fraud or corrupt or illegal practices” at polling stations in Etobicoke Centre on May 2. There are also reports of misleading phone calls made to voters in the riding. The Conservatives are disputing the allegations. The case will be heard in April, with a decision expected the following month.

Former NDP MP Jim Maloway, who was the incumbent in the Manitoba riding of Elmwood—Transcona going into the last election, says robo-calls and harassing calls contributed to his loss by just 300 votes to Conservative Lawrence Toet.

Absolutely it made a difference,” said Maloway, now a member of the Manitoba legislature for Elmwood. “The robo-calls were designed to get people to go on a wild goose chase and discourage them from going to the polls. I think that it would have an effect at least in some people’s minds causing them to drop into the non-voter category. I’ve had people tell me that.”

Toet did not respond to a request for comment.

Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney—Victoria) managed to keep his seat in the last election but saw his support shrink to 39.9 per cent, down from 49.4 per cent in the 2008 election. He beat his main challenger for the Nova Scotia seat, Conservative Cecil Clarke, by 765 votes.

“I know we lost Liberal supporters because they were so ticked off with how these calls were made,” said Eyking, referring to reports that callers purporting to be from the Liberal party harassed voters.

“My Conservative challenger had a bit of machinery behind him, so there was no doubt we were going to take a hit. We knew we were in for a dog fight. But we never expected that kind of drop.”

Elections Canada would not confirm whether any results in the ridings identified by the opposition parties or examined by the Star were being investigated.

Political strategist and Carleton University professor Elly Alboim warns against reading too much into the election results.

“I’m frankly very dubious unless it is a clear anomaly, which doesn’t have another explanation,” he said, adding that the loss of an incumbent would also shake up the vote in a riding regardless of whatever else is happening.

“You don’t know if there was a local issue, you don’t know if there was an incident during the campaign in that particular riding. You don’t know if the relative strength of the three candidates was different than it had been in 2008.”

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With files from Allan Woods and Les Whittington

Voters have reported receiving three types of calls: so-called “robo-calls” alleging to be from Elections Canada telling of a change of voting location; the harassing type from people claiming to be calling from various parties urging electors to vote for a particular candidate; and scripted calls from party “representatives” giving incorrect voting location information.

Court documents filed as part of an Elections Canada investigation into robo-calls that misdirected voters in Guelph link Edmonton company RackNine Inc. and the Conservative Party. Earlier this week, the Star reported that three former employees of RMG — Responsive Marketing Group, a company that develops fundraising and voter contact strategies — were instructed call voters and inform them that voting locations had been changed.

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