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Updated: Mar 18, 2019 12:03 IST

Eastern Uttar Pradesh sets the course for national politics. Or, this is what the locals of Purvanchal believe. Bablu Yadav, a Varanasi resident, is among the votaries of this theory.

Quietly sipping tea at a tea stall in Kashi, the heart of the region, he says, “Eastern UP always played a decisive role in every general election since the first one held in 1951-52 after independence. In almost every general election in the past, the party which eastern UP supported, came to power or played a crucial role in forming the government at the centre.”

“Till the time the Congress enjoyed the support of eastern UP, the party remained in power at the Centre,” he adds.

The region has 32 parliamentary seats, including the politically crucial Allahabad, Phulpur, Varanasi, Ballia and Gorakhpur, among others.

In the first general election, the Congress won 364 out of 469 parliamentary seats. The party almost made a clean sweep in undivided UP, losing only Kanpur Central to Praja Socialist Party (PJP), Gonda West (now Kaisarganj) to Hindu Mahasabha, Deoria East and Ghazipur East (Ghazipur) to the Socialist Party and Ballia to an independent. The party’s winning streak in the region continued in subsequent Lok Sabha elections till 1971.

But in 1977, UP, including Purvanchal, turned its back on the Congress and the grand old party bit the dust. The party won only six seats in undivided UP. Nationally, the Congress shrank to 153 seats and its allies won 36 seats. Together, the tally reached 189 seats.

Prof Kaushal Kishore Mishra, who teaches political science at BHU, says, “The election results of the sixth general elections (1977) show that eastern UP has always been very crucial politically. Incidentally, the party, which enjoyed the support of Eastern UP voters, remained in power, excluding two occasions.”

“In 1977, the region supported the Janata Party and everyone knows the result. In the previous five general elections, eastern UP supported the Congress and the party continued to form governments at the centre,” Mishra says.

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In the seventh general election in 1980, eastern UP’s faith in Congress was restored and the party won all crucial seats, including Varanasi, Mirzapur, Ghazipur, Robertsganj, Allahabad and Gorakhpur. The Congress stormed back to power at the Centre.

The Congress won 404 seats nationally in the 1984 Lok Sabha election, and eastern UP too supported the party in a big way, delivering Varanasi, Ballia, Ghazipur, Machhalishahar, Jaunpur, Gorakhapur and many other seats to it.

There was a change in fortunes in the ninth general election in 1989 when the Janata Dal led by VP Singh won over 36 seats in UP and the Congress could bag just 11. Over a dozen seats in the region, including Varanasi, Allahabad and Chandauli, were part of the Janata Dal’s tally.

In 1991, the BJP made its presence felt in eastern UP, winning Varanasi, Gorakhpur, Chandauli, Bhadohi, Padrauna and other seats. The Congress won only five seats in the region but could still form the government at the Centre due to the seats it won in other states and the support it received from some other parties.

The lotus bloomed in 1996 when the BJP won many seats in the region, including Varanasi, Robertsganj, Jaunpur, Ghosi, Padrauna, Gorakhpur, Chandauli, Bhadohi, Ghazipur, Faizabad and a few others. The victory added to the BJP’s tally and Atal Bihari Vajpayee formed the government which lasted 13 days. Later, the United Front (a conglomeration of regional parties) formed the government at centre and HD Deve Gowda became prime minister. He was succeeded by IK Gujral.

Once again, the BJP did well in the region in the 12th general election in 1998 but its UP tally dipped somewhat in 1999.

In 2004, the Samajwadi Party won 36 seats in the state, including over a dozen in eastern UP. The BSP won 19 seats, including Basti, Akbarpur, Faizabad, Dumariaganj, Robertsganj, Azamgarh, Chandauli, Machhlishahar and Mirzapur.

Both the parties promised support to the United Progressive Alliance led by the Congress, which formed the government.

In 2009, the Congress retained power, winning eastern UP seats like Kushinagar, Gonda, Bahraich, Shravasti and Faizabad.

In 2014, the BJP swept the region, excluding Azamgarh which Samajwadi Party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav won. Prime Minister Narendra Modi won from Varanasi. All adjoining seats were won by BJP and its allies.

Mishra said caste equations did not come into play in 2014 as there was a wave.

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In the last five years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited the region several times. He has been to his parliamentary constituency Varanasi 19 times during this period.

Apparently, he understands that eastern UP is crucial, Mishra adds.

The upper castes and OBC voters play a decisive role in 26 seats of eastern UP. However, in Azamgarh and Mau, Dalits and Muslims outnumber the OBC and upper caste voters.

In the last election, the BSP was runner-up in 17 seats and the SP in the 12. As both the parties are in alliance, the region will witness a close race this time.

Mishra adds the elections will be more interesting this time and eastern UP holds key to formation of the next government at the Centre.

PM’s choice

Six out of the nine prime ministers associated with Uttar Pradesh were elected from the state’s eastern region.

Only three of these nine PMs were elected from elsewhere: Indira Gandhi (Rae Bareli), Atal Bihari Vajpayee (Lucknow in Awadh region), and Chaudhary Charan Singh (Baghpat in west UP).

India’s first Prime Minister Pt Jawahar Lal Nehru won the Phulpur seat by a huge margin in the first general election in 1951-52 and was re-elected in 1957 and 1962.

After his death in 1964, Gulzari Lal Nanda succeeded him as acting prime minister. Later, Lal Bahadur Shastri became PM. He was elected from Allahabad Lok Sabha constituency twice in 1957 and 1962.

Other prime ministers with an east UP connection included Vishwanath Pratap Singh (belonging to Allahabad but elected from Fatehpur), Chandra Shekhar (Ballia), Rajiv Gandhi (Amethi which is now considered part of east UP) and Narendra Modi (Varanasi).

Fight for prestige in Gorakhpur

The BJP is pulling out all stops to win back Gorakhpur, which it lost to the SP in the by-election held in March 2018. Prior to that, current chief minister Yogi Adityanath was elected from Gorakhpur on BJP ticket five times in a row from 1998 onwards. Indeed, the party is trying to retain all nine Lok Sabha seats of the Gorakhpur-Basti division. Apart from Gorakhpur, these seats are: Bansgaon, Deoria Salempur, Kushinagar, Basti, Dumariyaganj , Maharajganj and Sant Kabirnagar.

Political analyst Manoj Singh says, “The Gorakhpur seat was held by the Gorakhnath Mutt for over 60 years and its hardcore Hindu leaders had influence over adjoining seats of the region. The party was considered invincible but the 2018 by-poll defeat left the BJP red-faced. I think these elections are going to be tough test for Yogi, who would be desperate not only to win back his seat but also to retain all nine seats of his region for his party. The united opposition is also in a position to give a tough fight to the ruling party.”

In 2009, the BJP won only the Gorakhpur and Bansgaon (reserved) seats in the division. The BSP won Basti, Salempur Deoria and Sant Kabirnagar seats. The Congress bagged Kushinagar Maharajganj and Dumiryaganj .

Having lost Gorakhpur in the 2018 by-poll, which brought together archrivals the SP and the BSP, the BJP is carefully picking its candidates for nine seats keeping in mind the winning caste equation of Nishads, Brahmins, Thakurs, Dalits and backwards.

Four lakh Nishad voters will play a decisive role in Gorakhpur. Hence, the BJP is considering to put up a Nishad candidate against Praveen Nishad, who won the by poll as an SP candidate and is expected to retain the party ticket.

Recently, Amrendra Nishad and his mother Rajmati Nishad , who fought unsuccessfully against Yogi in 2014, joined the BJP, giving rise to speculation about Amrendra’s candidature from Gorakhpur.

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