After a long silence, the Kremlin has cast doubt on photographs that appear to show a suspect in the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia was a Russian intelligence officer, saying that “many people look alike”.

It had been expected President Vladimir Putin would use an official trip to Azerbaijan to face down reports linking a military intelligence (GRU) colonel to the Salisbury novichok scandal.

But after fielding a few brief questions from loyal journalists, the president moved on to a discussion of Azeri-Russian relations and, then, a judo competition.

There would be no discussion of the explosive Bellingcat/Insider investigation that introduced Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga to the world.

It was left to loyal officials to hold the fort. Writing on Facebook, Maria Zakharova, the foreign ministry’s spokesperson, dismissed the investigation as “fabrications”. The new report provided “no proof”, she said. And its only aim was to distract attention from what happened in Salisbury.

Loyal media also undermined the story. The Komsomolskaya Pravda tabloid quoted a Defence Ministry official claiming the investigation contained discrepancies. But the arguments seemed convoluted: Chepiga could not have graduated from a certain military academy since that “did not train spies”; Chepiga could not have been at Salisbury at the time of the attack, because he should have been in training school; one of the addresses quoted was wrong.

Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Show all 19 1 /19 Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – Salisbury train station The two suspects charged in relation to the attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal at Salisbury train station at 16:11hrs on 03 March 2018 Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Suspects Suspects Ruslan Boshirov and Alexander Petrov, Russian nationals, approximately 40 years old, who travelled on a Russian passport. It is likely that they were travelling under aliases and that these are not their real names Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Evidence Bottle and applicator recovered by police from Charlie Rowley’s address in Muggleton Road Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Evidence A counterfeit perfume box that was discovered by nerve agent victim Charlie Rowley, who later gave it, and the bottle inside, to his girlfriend Dawn Sturgess Metropolitan Police/AFP/Getty Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Rowley has previously said he felt lucky to be alive after giving a perfume bottle that contained the nerve agent Novichok to his girlfriend Dawn Sturgess, who later died Metropolitan Police/AFP/Getty Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Suspeccts The CPS has issued European Arrest Warrants for the extradition of 'Boshirov' and 'Petrov' in connection with the Novichok poisoning attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in March Metropolitan Police/PA Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – ‘Boshirov' at Gatwick airport Movements in detail - At 3pm on Friday, 2 March, the suspects arrived at Gatwick airport, having flown from Moscow on Aeroflot flight SU2588 Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – ‘Petrov’ at Gatwick airport From the airport it is believed that they travelled by train into London, arriving at Victoria station at approximately 5.40pm Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – Salisbury train station, 11:48hrs on 4 March 2018 They then travelled on London public transport to Waterloo station and were in the area between approximately 6pm and 7pm. They travelled to the City Stay Hotel in Bow Road, East London, where they stayed on Friday, 2 March, and Saturday, 3 March. On Saturday, 3 March, they left the hotel and took the underground to Waterloo station, arriving at approximately 11.45am, where they caught a train to Salisbury, arriving at approximately 2.25pm Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack City Stay Hotel in Bow Road Police officers stand outside the City Stay Hotel in Bow where on Sunday, 4 March, 'Boshirov' and 'Petrov' made the same journey from the hotel as they did the previous day, again using the underground from Bow to Waterloo station at approximately 8.05am, before continuing their journey by train to Salisbury Getty Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – Wilton Road, Salisbury, 11:58hrs on 4 March 2018 CCTV shows them in the vicinity of Mr Skripal’s house and we believe that they contaminated the front door with Novichok Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – Fisherton Road CCTV image of both suspects on Fisherton Road, Salisbury at 13:05hrs on 4 March, 2018 Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – Salisbury train station, 13:50hrs on 4 March 2018 They left Salisbury and returned to Waterloo Station, arriving at approximately 4.45pm and boarded the London Underground at approximately 6.30pm to London Heathrow Airport Metropolitan Police Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack CCTV – Heathrow airport security, 19:28hrs on 4 March 2018 From Heathrow Airport, they returned to Moscow on Aeroflot flight SU2585, departing at 10.30pm Metropolitan Police/PA Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Scene investigations The police investigation was carried out over 6 months. Ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were found on March 4 in a critical condition on a bench outside the Maltings shopping centre in Salisbury AFP Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Victims Former Russian spy Sergei Skripal, right, and his daughter Yulia Rex Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Victims Detective Sergeant Nick Bailey who rushed to the aid of the Skripals was also taken to hospital in a serious condition after falling ill when attempting to help them PA Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Victims Dawn Sturgess, a 44-year-old mother of three, died after falling ill when partner Charlie Rowley gave her a perfume bottle that contained the nerve agent Novichok Facebook/AFP/Getty Police release images of suspects in connection with Salisbury attack Scene investigations The home of Charlie Rowley in Muggleton Road, Amesbury, where he and Dawn Sturgess were exposed to the deadly nerve agent Novichok PA

As the day wore on, and the Kremlin stayed silent, the questions grew in number.

In the afternoon, the respected Kommersant broadsheet published its own investigation, backing up the Bellingcat/Insider findings. The paper tracked down residents of the village where Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga apparently spent much of his youth. Locals said they recognised “Tolya” (short form of Anatoliy) in the UK police photos and much-ridiculed RT interview.

“Many people look like one another” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

“It’s Tolya, one hundred percent. His near-black eyes, and his voice,” said one woman, who refused to be identified.

When the Kremlin eventually broke cover on Thursday evening, it was to deny knowledge of anything to do with the GRU colonel.

In a tense session with journalists, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he did “not have the information” to confirm or deny the man that UK police identified as Ruslan Boshriov was, indeed, Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga.

“We don’t have any other data,” he said. “We see there has been an informal investigation. We don’t know if it is true, or how much it is true.”

Besides, he added, “many people look like one another.”

Salisbury attack: Two Russian spies named as suspects in novichok poisoning case

Mr Peskov claimed to have only come across the information when the report was published on Wednesday. He could not confirm why a military officer by the name of Chepiga received Russia’s highest military award.

The spokesman indicated the Kremlin had little interest in a comprehensive discussion of the subject. After speaking out in defence of “two ordinary civilians”, the president is also unlikely to voluntarily return to the issue.

“Putin understands it was an egregious mistake of information policy to speak in the way that he did,” says former Kremlin advisor Gleb Pavlovsky. The president’s ill-advised intervention had only fuelled the scandal: “Before there was only Theresa May speaking. Putin voluntarily offered up a protocol equivalent.”

Mr Pavlovsky suggests the Russian president had been motivated by an “elevated sense of self-worth”, and a belief his words would be enough to change things.

“He will not be making the same mistake again,” says Mr Pavlovsky.

The system strives to escalation and radicalisation. It answers escalation with escalation.” Gleb Pavlovsky, former Kremlin advisor

The scale of the intelligence blunders is likely to have wide-reaching consequences for Russia’s intelligence services. A shake-up in personnel seems inevitable. This is unlikely to happen immediately, however. Mr Putin’s HR policy is usually conservative and detached from news events.

But when it happens, things could get ugly, says Alexei Filatov, a retired lieutenant colonel of Russia's security services.

“If it turns out to be as the investigation says it was, then lord help us, honours will be flying off people’s uniforms, and people will be fired,” he told The Independent. “It would be a shame since the GRU is a decorated institution with a great history.”

Mr Filatov said he could not confirm the veracity of the Bellingcat/Insider report. Nonetheless, their conclusions “looked more convincing and well argued than those presented by our Foreign Ministry”.

The former agent says Russia’s intelligence agencies may also been undone by technological advance: “It is like a mine – we’re discovering new layers of information that previously people thought didn’t exist. It may be impossible to hide all the information.”

But as embarrassing as the leaks have been, they are unlikely to lead to a root-and-branch reform of the political system.

If anything, radical politicians will feed off the scandal, says Mr Pavlovsky.