Financial advisory firm Canaccord Genuity has predicted that bitcoin (BTC) could hit $20,000 by 2021 based on retrospective projections in an analysis published on May 9.

This prediction is based on a close similarity between the four-year price cycles of bitcoin during the 2011–2015 and 2015–2019 ranges, as shown in the following graph:

Bitcoin price cycles. Source: Canaccord Genuity

Canaccord Genuity points to the bitcoin mining rewards schedule as a possible cause for these four-year price cycles, since the reward drop — which decreases by 50% for every 210,000 blocks mined — has so-far occurred about once every four years. However, the report cautions:

“As always, we caveat this observation with the obvious — this is simply pattern recognition and not reliable fundamental analysis.”

Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Graham commented on cryptocurrency prices at the beginning of 2018, saying that the upswing in regulatory enforcement would likely have a major impact on the crypto market via dislocation (therefore making it hard for crypto assets to be accurately priced).

Earlier this week, Galaxy Digital Founder and CEO Michael Novogratz predicted that the price of bitcoin would exceed $20,000 by the end of 2020. Novogratz did not provide a specific rationale for his conviction, but did note that bitcoin is in a bull market and is outperforming the price growth of other cryptocurrencies.

At press time, bitcoin is trading at $6,404.55 and is trending up by 4.89% on the day, according to data from CoinMarketCap.