Dave Birkett

Detroit Free Press

With three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus for the Detroit Lions.

If they win their final three games, the Lions (9-4) will win the NFC North and be assured of a first-round bye.

If they go 11-5, they're guaranteed a wild-card spot, as long as the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys don't tie Sunday night.

As an 11-win wild-card team, the Lions would be the No. 6 seed if they finish with the same record as the second-place team in the NFC West, or the No. 5 seed if the West runner-up crumbles and they're tied only with the second-place team in the NFC East.

At 10 wins, the Lions could be in danger of missing the playoffs, which is why it's important that they don't slip up in winnable games the next two weeks at home against the Minnesota Vikings (4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox) and at the Chicago Bears.

"We're handling what's going on right now in the moment," center Dominic Raiola said. "We're not looking past it. Like (Sunday), it was just Tampa. I didn't know who else played in the NFL. In the past, it was, 'We need this and this to happen.' So we're just doing our thing, and if we keep doing our thing, we'll be all right."

Here's a look at the rest of the NFC playoff picture:

Division leaders

Arizona Cardinals (10-3)

Current playoff standing: Top seed, NFC West champs

Games left: at Rams, vs. Seahawks, at 49ers

Outlook: Drew Stanton (Michigan State) rallied the Cardinals to a home victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, keeping Arizona atop the NFC standings. The Cardinals have the toughest remaining schedule among playoff contenders, but they can clinch a postseason berth with one more win. To hold on to the division, however, the Cardinals will have to win at least two of their final three games, including home against Seattle in Week 16.

Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Current playoff standing: Second seed, NFC North champs

Games left: vs. Falcons, at Bills, at Buccaneers, vs. Lions

Outlook: The Packers lead the NFC North by a half-game entering tonight's showdown against the Falcons. They have the best quarterback in the NFL and look like the league's best team. And if they win out, they should have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they stumble somewhere, the Packers still will win the division if they beat the Lions at Lambeau Field in Week 17 and win at least one other game.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)

Current playoff standing: Third seed, NFC East champs

Games left: vs. Cowboys, at Washington, at Giants

Outlook: The Eagles have control of the NFC East by virtue of their Thanksgiving blowout of Dallas, and if they win the rematch this week, they'll be tough to top in the division. Quarterback Mark Sanchez struggled Sunday for the second time in two weeks, and it's unclear who will start when Nick Foles returns from injury. Regardless, there's a good chance that the Lions will open the playoffs on the road against the East champ if they're a wild card.

Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

Current playoff standing: Fourth seed, NFC South champs

Games left: at Packers, vs. Steelers, at Saints, vs. Panthers

Outlook: The NFC South looks worse and worse by the week. The Saints lost their fourth straight home game Sunday, to the Panthers. Carolina is a shell of the team it was last year. And Tampa Bay might be the worst team in the NFL. The Falcons lead the division by virtue of their head-to-head win over the Saints, but the rematch is Week 16, so this division is still up for grabs.

Wild-card contenders

Seattle Seahawks (9-4)

Current playoff standing: Fifth seed, first wild card

Games left: vs. 49ers, at Cardinals, vs. Rams

Outlook: The defending Super Bowl champs won their third straight game Sunday, on the road in Philadelphia, and they're playing as well as anyone right now. The defense looks healthy. Marshawn Lynch is running well, and Russell Wilson has found his groove. Two of Seattle's final three games are at home, and the third one could decide the division.

Dallas Cowboys (9-4)

Current playoff standing: No playoffs

Games left: at Eagles, vs. Colts, at Washington

Outlook: The Cowboys looked awful on Thanksgiving but saved their season with a huge Thursday night win in Chicago. They'd lose most tiebreakers, based on their conference record and a home loss to Arizona, so their margin for error is thin. At a minimum, the Cowboys probably need 11 wins to get in, and it'd be a good idea to start Sunday in Philadelphia.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.