New poll gives McDaniel 6-point lead in runoff — Rangel touts Bill Clinton endorsement on new mailer — Ernst up 5 in post-primary Vox Populi poll — Graham debates GOP challengers in S.C. Presented by the United States Postal Service

With help from Elizabeth Titus, Alex Isenstadt, James Hohmann and Tarini Parti

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. ( https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


SCORE EXCLUSIVE — MCDANIEL LEADS IN NEW POST-PRIMARY POLL: The conventional wisdom says Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel has the advantage in the upcoming June 24 Senate runoff — and a new robopoll of likely GOP runoff voters from the group Strategic National feeds that CW by finding the GOP challenger with a 6-point lead. McDaniel takes 52 percent in the poll, with GOP incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran at 46 percent. (McDaniel led the primary with 49.5 percent of the vote, compared with 49.0 percent for Cochran.) Asked if Cochran should continue to contest the runoff or step down and let McDaniel win, 40 percent of voters thought Cochran should step aside. Despite McDaniel’s lead, those surveyed have a slightly more positive view of Cochran than they do of McDaniel: Cochran is at 58 percent favorable and 26 percent unfavorable; McDaniel is at 53 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable. The poll was conducted on June 5, two days after the primary; it was not conducted for any candidate or group involved in the race, though Strategic National is closer to the tea-party wing of the GOP. Full results for Pro subscribers: http://goo.gl/2C2QmH

NEW THIS MORNING — POST-PRIMARY POLL PUTS ERNST UP 5: Vox Populi Polling, the Republican firm, went in the field last Wednesday and Thursday after Iowa’s Senate primary and found GOP nominee Joni Ernst leading Democrat Bruce Braley by 5 points, 49-44. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad leads Democrat Jack Hatch by 11 points, 51-40. The robopoll surveyed 667 active voters and has a 3.8 percent margin of error. See the toplines here: http://goo.gl/KZFmjU

--That’s virtually identical to results of a Loras College poll, which had Ernst up, 48-42. http://goo.gl/JNL5lc

TODAY ON CAMPAIGN PRO — HOW DEMS NARROWLY AVOIDED CA-31 DISASTER

As Charlie Rangel gets an assist from Bill Clinton, the DNC announces six potential ‘16 convention cities, and voters in five states prepare for primaries this week, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 148.

Good Monday morning and welcome to the abridged version of POLITICO Campaign Pro’s Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to [email protected] or tweet them to @ emilyrs. You can also get your Campaign Pro news at @ politicopro and @ promorningscore.

** Katz Radio Group is your one-stop media partner. No other company can match the massive reach, local targeting abilities and effectiveness of Katz Radio Group. Timing is everything in an election. Let Katz Radio Group give you the reach and speed you need to effectively deliver your message. Contact: [email protected] **

TODAY ON CAMPAIGN PRO —

HOW DEMS NARROWLY AVOIDED CA-31 DISASTER

FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD—

1) Can Lindsey Graham avoid a Palmetto State runoff?

2) What’s his final margin?

3) Will Don Beyer win in the crowded Virginia 8th District primary?

4) Does Brian Sandoval’s desired LG pick win over Sue Lowden (of 2010 Senate fame) in Nevada?

5) How much will the EMILY’s List efforts for Emily Cain boost her margin in Maine?

PREVIEWING THIS WEEK’S PRIMARIES: Five states vote this week: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia. Unlike last Tuesday, when there were myriad competitive and interesting primaries, this week is likely to bring few surprises: in South Carolina’s Senate race, the big question is whether GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham can reach the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff. (Even if he doesn’t, the runoff is in just two weeks and there’s almost no way a challenger could coalesce the anti-Graham vote during that time.)

SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE DEBATE RECAP: The State has the highlights from Saturday’s first and only GOP Senate debate in South Carolina: “U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s six GOP challengers criticized the Seneca Republican on Saturday, saying he had failed to protect the Constitution during the Republican Primary campaign’s only debate. Graham, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, defended his record, including voting in favor of President Barack Obama’s two Supreme Court nominees and working to help illegal immigrants become citizens. ... Graham’s challengers hoped to score points in a race where they have fallen far behind the incumbent, who appears to have a chance of winning the GOP nomination without a runoff, according to a recent poll.” http://goo.gl/HxG3ig

TODAY ON POLITICO — ICYMI: HOW GILLESPIE COULD WIN IN VIRGINIA, via Campaign Pro’s James Hohmann from the state GOP convention in Roanoke: “ 1) Keep up with Warner on the cash front. Gillespie raised more money in the first quarter than any other non-incumbent Republican Senate candidate. ... But Warner already has raised $12.6 million this cycle. ... 2) Strip the Teflon off Warner. Republicans say Warner’s Senate record does not match his public image, but they acknowledge they will need to more effectively tie him to Democratic leaders. ... 3) Define himself before Warner does. With his cash, Warner may run a big early television campaign that introduces Gillespie as a lobbyist who worked for Enron and other dubious clients before serving in the George W. Bush administration. ... 4) Keep talking about Obamacare — and make Warner own it. Obamacare has continuing resonance in Virginia because of an ongoing showdown between Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe and the Republican-led House of Delegates over whether to expand Medicaid. ... 5) Limit his losses in Northern Virginia. Obama won the last two presidential cycles in part because of the growth of the D.C. suburbs and exurbs — and their leftward shift.” http://goo.gl/02VkAW

FIRST LOOK — RANGEL MAILER FEATURES BILL CLINTON: New York Rep. Charlie Rangel, entangled in a tough June 24 primary, is out with a mailer touting his endorsement from former President Bill Clinton. "Charlie has been a champion of more good jobs, successful smart businesses and strong families for more than 40 years. That's what his district and our country need now," Clinton is quoted as saying in the mailer. The opposite side of the mailer has pictures of House Speaker John Boehner, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. "The tea party has a stranglehold on Congress, but we've got a fighter in our corner," it reads. Campaign Pros can see it here: http://politico.pro/SGYDqf

AIR WAR STAT OF THE DAY: Per the New York Times’ story on the Alaska Senate race, political ads have aired nearly 20,000 times in the state since early 2013. That’s higher than in any of the other three major races featuring red-state Democratic incumbents: in North Carolina, that figure was 18,000; in Arkansas it’s 13,000 and in Louisiana it’s 12,000. http://goo.gl/ivCp6v

DEMS NARROW CONVENTION CITIES DOWN TO SIX: The Democratic convention selection process is starting to heat up as six cities — Birmingham, Cleveland, Columbus, New York, Philadelphia and Phoenix — submitted official bids to be considered for the ‘16 confab. A committee of DNC members will now make site visits and determine how well each city could handle the crowds and security demands that come with a party convention; a decision is likely to be announced late this year or in early 2015. Republicans began their convention selection process earlier and are down to just four cities: Cleveland, Dallas, Denver and Kansas City. (Cleveland is the only city still present on both parties’ lists, which makes sense given its location in a perennial swing state. Columbus and Phoenix submitted RNC bids but were eliminated earlier in the process.) http://goo.gl/s2mIdS

QUICK HITS ACROSS THE MAP — Quick takes from races across the country:

SENATE—

-GA-Sen: GOP Rep. Jack Kingston leads primary runoff opponent David Perdue, 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a new SurveyUSA poll. http://goo.gl/HiYvgc

-MS-Sen: GOP Sen. Thad Cochran is getting a boost from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who will support him at an NRSC fundraiser. http://goo.gl/qXyMZC

-MT-Sen: GOP Rep. Steve Daines released a TV ad accused Democratic Sen. John Walsh of having "mismanaged our tax dollars." http://goo.gl/LQ2JG9

-NY-21: GOP candidate Matt Doheny released an ad painting primary rival Elise Stefanik as a "DC insider." http://goo.gl/53sgg4

-GA-Gov: GOP Gov. Nathan Deal leads Democratic rival Jason Carter, 44 percent to 38 percent, according to a new poll by SurveyUSA. http://goo.gl/HiYvgc

-MD-Gov: Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown released a positive 30-second TV ad spotlighting his running mate. http://goo.gl/V5sdu2

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “This is what I call the ‘hate season.’ For the next few months it's going to be brutal out there.'' — Maine Gov. Paul LePage, speaking at a recent campaign event http://goo.gl/RfST3f

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LIVE TODAY – ALL POLICY IS LOCAL: Education – the second coverage area in POLITICO’s ongoing series reporting on the 2014 midterms like no one else. Going beyond the horserace, ALL POLICY IS LOCAL: Education examines the intersection of politics and education policy and the impact on industry and community. See full coverage including the must-read piece by Maggie Severns and Katie Glueck reporting on the closely watched DC mayoral race and how education is driving decisions: http://politi.co/1i9oygX.

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