A new Forum Research poll shows John Tory with a six-point lead over Doug Ford (open Doug Ford's policard) and a 16-point lead over Olivia Chow.

Tory had 39 per cent support, Ford 33 per cent, Chow 23 per cent, “some other candidate” 4 per cent in the survey taken Tuesday night — the first by Forum since the Oct. 6 survey that triggered alarm among anti-Ford voters by showing him down from Tory by only two points.

The new poll, of decided or “leaning” voters, shows Tory with a lead over Ford in the Etobicoke-York region (43 per cent to 38 per cent), a statistical tie in Scarborough (Ford 39 per cent, Tory 38 per cent), and Ford with a lead in North York (44 per cent to 32 per cent). Tory’s strength was in the old city of Toronto and East York, where he beat Ford 44 per cent to 16 per cent.

Chow was strongest in that region, her home base, with 36 per cent. But she trailed the leader by 27 points in Etobicoke-York, 19 points in Scarborough, and 26 points in North York. She has been mired around the low 20s overall for two months.

Forum’s North York results have fluctuated wildly. The new poll showed a 23-point swing from the last poll: in the Oct. 6 poll, Tory led Ford by 11 points there.

The Doug Ford “surge” in that poll may have been a blip partly caused by an unusual one-time finding among respondents aged 18 to 34. Ford led Tory 49 per cent to 24 per cent among these young voters — but the sample was only 88 people. In the new poll, in which the sample of young voters was 130 people, Ford had only a modest lead, 32 per cent to 28 per cent.

Tory has now led in 16 consecutive polls taken since the end of July. Since the beginning of September, he has led by six points or more in all but the Oct. 6 poll.

Election Day is Oct. 27. Advance voting is running through Sunday.

Tory still had the highest approval rating, 55 per cent, but his numbers have taken a hit since Ford and Chow mounted simultaneous and ferocious attacks against him. His approval rating was 66 per cent a month ago, and it was above 60 per cent in every Forum poll from April through September.

Ford’s approval rating was 40 per cent, the lowest he has registered since he entered the race on Sept. 12. Chow’s approval rating rebounded to 46 per cent, up from a low of 42 per cent.

The interactive voice response poll sampled 1,241 residents. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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