The urban mood is swinging decisively against the Congress-led UPA. In the NDA, Modi is seen as the best man for PM.

One of the biggest dilemmas facing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it heads towards 2014 is this: should it face the poll without a formally announced leader or should it anoint a prime ministerial candidate in advance?

More specifically, should it bite the bullet and opt for Narendra Modi as its nominee or wait till the Lok Sabha results are out and try and patch together a leadership decision on the fly?

The BJP, of course, has many problems with taking any kind of decision: its top leadership (Nitin Gadkari, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley) is at war with itself, and the octogenarian LK Advani is past his prime. There is unease on what a Modi candidacy will do to their ambitions, and even the RSS has not warmed up fully to Modi’s future elevation. It seems more comfortable with a Gadkari whose ears it can tweak better than Modi’s. With Modi at the helm, the RSS fears marginalisation like it did during the Vajpayee regime.

Modi’s detractors inside the party also whisper that he may not be an acceptable leader when the BJP has to seek allies post-election to form a government. His anti-Muslim image is held against him.

However, a CNN-IBN Opinion Poll conducted across eight urban centres – Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Bangalore and Hyderabad – showed that even as the Manmohan Singh-led UPA is losing its credibility in urban areas, Narendra Modi stands head and shoulders above his rivals with voters when it comes to leadership of the BJP and the NDA.

The survey, conducted from 8-10 May with a sample size of 2,033, shows that Modi is the overwhelming urban choice as NDA-BJP leader with 39 percent seeing him as prime ministerial material. LK Advani comes next with 17 percent. The rest have preferences in single-digits.

Interestingly, barring Kolkata, Modi is No 1 choice is all cities, with Ahmedabad (not surprisingly) leading the pack with 76 percent preferring him, followed by Lucknow (which is surprising) giving him 60 percent. This suggests that Modi may be key to reviving the BJP’s fortunes in Uttar Pradesh, too.

Advani fares better than Modi in Kolkata, and does reasonably well in many cities, with Sushma Swaraj coming in at No 3.

The interesting point is that Nitish Kumar, who is widely seen as a possible prime minister in case the regional allies of the NDA fare better than the BJP itself, gets just 5 percent. He is more a media creation than anything else.

Broadly speaking, Modi is streets ahead of his rivals in the West and North, while Advani fares better in the East and South.

This suggests that post-2014, assuming Advani is ruled out due to age, the choice will really boil down to Modi, if the BJP does well, and Swaraj, in case the BJP doesn’t and the party needs a more acceptable face at the top to woo allies.

However, this still leaves the question of whether Modi will indeed make a difference to the BJP’s fortunes if he is made a prime ministerial candidate before 2014.

The survey indicates four trends.

One, there is a clear disenchantment with the Congress and the UPA at this point, at least in urban areas, which means the BJP/NDA has an edge. Some 59 percent said they were not happy with the UPA.

Two, the key reasons for this disenchantment relate to the government’s inability to tackle price rise (53 percent), and 46 percent had issues with how the government was handling the economy.

Three, within the UPA, Rahul Gandhi is seen as the man best placed to replace Manmohan Singh as PM (25 percent). Preference for Rahul compared to Mahmohan is less (25 versus 20) than Modi against Advani (39 versus 17).

Four, there is extreme disenchantment with Manmohan Singh’s performance. The PM is seen as a good man, but unable to manage anything. 55 percent want him replaced.

If we take these facts together, it all points to Modi as a more effective candidate for PM, even given the perceptional issues with him.

The general disenchantment with UPA’s performance could make people overlook Modi’s supposed communal image. Moreover, Modi’s trump card is the exact opposite of Manmohan – as an able administrator and someone who can get things done. Modi is also the ultimate development mascot.

But, more importantly, the chances are that a Modi candidacy will reinvigorate the party at a time when the cadre is looking listless with the current leadership’s is unable to function together. No one doubts that an empowered Modi will streamline the party and put dissenters out to grass.

Ultimately, it is the ability to enthuse the cadres that will enable the BJP to get out its committed vote – even while attracting floating voters with the help of UPA deserters.

While Modi, of course, is not going to announce his candidature before the Gujarat election, the writing on the wall for the BJP is clear: it can ignore him at its peril.

CNN - IBN Opinion Poll_Report