This has consequences.

Recent research on tropical storms has linked climate change to more frequent and intense tropical storms that produce more rainfall. A study published in 2018 also noted that the pace of tropical storms making landfall has slowed during the last few decades, leading to greater precipitation totals. Evidence of this was apparent with Hurricane Harvey in 2017; parts of Houston received as much as 60 inches of rainfall because of the storm “stalling out” as it made landfall. The result was an estimated $125 billion in damages.

As Harvey and other recent hurricanes have made clear, decades of development and swelling population densities exacerbate damage and deaths. So, though climate change may be amplifying the risks of these storms, the root cause of these escalating disasters is not event frequency, or intensity. It’s what is known as the Expanding Bull’s-Eye Effect — how population magnitude and development are distributed across a given landscape. That’s what will define risk and vulnerability for people who live in the potential path of Dorian.

It seems obvious. But people continue to move and build in locations prone to storms and floods. And many remain and rebuild there even after a disaster. That’s why repeatedly flooded properties have cost the National Flood Insurance Program more than $12.5 billion.

People as well as governments at all levels must do a better job at preparing for hurricanes and mitigating the impacts. In doing so, it’s important to understand that hurricane disasters increasingly will be a consequence of both the changing climate and the patterns of population growth and development that we allow.