Spurs are officially in crisis now. While the midweek mauling by Bayern was dispiriting, there was widespread acknowledgement of the fact that Spurs were unlucky to lose by such margin and their performance was good. However, it was the defeat at the hand of Brighton over the weekend which has plunged them into certified crisis zone. It was expected that players would want to show heart and this match would serve as a platform to answer the critics but what we got was a limp performance which illuminated the all-round rottenness of this Spurs team.

The loss at Brighton has meant that this is their joint worst PL record under Pochettino after 8 matches of the season. Their current points total and league position are same as was in 2013-14 after 8 matches. Even then the gap to 4th position was lower and all that after finishing 6th the previous season and before Poch had been able to impose his style on the team. Since then Spurs have never been at such lowly position after 8 matches and have never lost as many matches. Even for the famously slow starters like Spurs this seems like a nadir especially after back to back ignominious defeats. This seems like the continuation of the rotten end of last season rather than a fresh start which was expected of them. They have not won an away match since January 20, the longest streak for any current PL club.

Spurs League position under Pochettino after 8 matches of the season

How bad is the situation?

Spurs had an almost disastrous end of season in 2018-19. Only the equally bad performance by Arsenal and Man United ensured that they finished 4th and their miraculous Champions League run papered over the cracks. It seems they have continued 2019-20 in the same vein. A common feature of Spurs under Poch has been their ability to win against bottom 14 teams, while they were never a prolific winner against the fellow top 6. In contrast this season, while they have drawn against the fellow top 6 sides City and Arsenal, it is the losses against Newcastle, Leicester, and Brighton and the thumping they received at the hand of Bayern which has resulted in all this crisis talk. The underlying data suggests, this is a deep rooted problem affecting all aspects of their game.

What is wrong with Spurs?

Multiple reasons have been floated for Spurs’ performance, including Harry Kane, midfield problems and managerial issues. While there is a kernel of truth to all these theories and all of them have contributed in this downward spiral, a further analysis is needed to get to the core of the problem. Let’s examine the issues one by one.

The Kane Conundrum

One reason which has been touted throughout the community has been Harry Kane. It has been said that Harry Kane now hinders rather than helps the team. Spurs winning the 4 games he missed in January and February and losing 4 of the 6 matches after his return was cited as evidence of this and Kane’s performance did not help his cause. His final appearance also meant that Lucas Moura, the hero of semi-final was benched for the final and Kane who is already known as being selfish even to the detriment of the team fell down a peg or two in the eyes of the neutrals and some of the supporters. While no one is denying the fact that Kane is a bit selfish and his positioning in matches needs to be scrutinized, is Kane really the root cause of this malice? We analysed Spurs’ performance last season, with and without Kane. The results have been interesting to say the least.

Kane’s presence or absence in the team had no discernible impact on Spurs win record while their loss record increased somewhat with Kane in team.

Let’s check the attacking underlying stats, with and without Kane.

It is clear that Kane’s presence did not negatively impact Spurs’ attacking output. In fact Spurs scored fewer goals/match without Kane in team while the xG numbers remained the same. Goals/goals attempt and shots on target/game was higher pointing towards a better shot conversion with Kane in team.

What’s interesting is the performance of Spurs after Match No. 22, once Kane got injured for the first time. Kane missed a total of 10 matches in the season, Match no. 23-27 and Match No. 33-38. Let’s check the data from these sets.

As is evident from the above table, Spurs suffered from GW 27 onwards. Match 27 was on 23rd February and CL knockout rounds started from 13th February. Once the CL knockout rounds started Spurs played 12 PL games and lost 7 of those while winning only 3. It seems, rather than Kane, it was Champions League which had a bigger impact on Spurs’ performance. Spurs famously did not sign anyone in 2 consecutive transfer windows and lack of any summer signing meant fatigue set in the team which had highest number of participants at the World Cup semi – finals as well.

Let’s check the underlying data for the season:

The most important stat from the above table is mins per chance, Goal/Shot on target, and Shot on target/Game. Mins per chance, Shots on target/Game and Goal/Shot on target is higher with Kane in team. This means that with Kane in team Spurs created fewer chances per game but took more shots on target and finished them at a better rate. Thus Kane might have a negative impact on the creativity of the team but with Kane in team the chances which were created were converted in a more efficient manner. This is also borne by the fact that while xG/Game was lower with Kane in the team, Goals/Game was higher at the same time. All of this was true till Match no. 27, after which Spurs’ performance fell down the cliff and the results with or without Kane suffered in similar manner.

Thus while Kane is a contributing factor, Kane makes Spurs an efficient team and he can’t be solely faulted for Spurs’ performance.

The Midfield Muddle

One theory is that Spurs midfield has become pedestrian and there is not enough creativity in the team to sustain a top four challenge. For this we examined data from past 3 seasons. The data from first 4 games have been extrapolated over the season to show the projected numbers for 2019-20 season.

Underlying attacking stats comparison

The above table clearly illustrates the creativity issue in the Spurs team. Chance creation is at the lowest since 16-17 and xG numbers would be lowest since 2017-18 (since when the data is available). Goals scored would be at par with last season but for that they would need to over perform their xG by a huge margin. While their goals/goal attempts has remained constant over the seasons, goals/shot on target has increased over the seasons and is the highest for this season. % of Shots on target has decreased over the years but the decrease is not significant. It is clear that conversion is not the issue, it is creativity which is the issue.

They are creating chances every 7.3 mins this season which amounts to 5 fewer chances every match from 2016-17, and 4 fewer chances from 17-18. Big Chances created are also significantly down while the conversion for them has increased. So while they are taking fewer shots, conversion is not the issue over here. They are able to convert the chances they create at a better rate but it is creativity which is the issue.

The returns for Eriksen, their creative lynchpin for past many seasons also proves the point. While Lamela has been in better form than previous seasons, he has never been reliable and Delle Alli seems to be in a rut.

The Defensive Disorder

Underlying defensive stats comparison

Spurs had always been a defensively sound team under Poch but this season (actually from the end of last season), their defensive organization seems to be in tatters.

They are conceding more shots and more shots on target. Even out of total shots conceded more shots are on target/shot conceded is higher. Which means they are allowing the opposition to take more shots, and higher percentage of those shots are on target. Goal/Shot on target has remained the same, so Lloris despite gifting couple of goals can’t be faulted and his save percentage has remained the same.

There are two main reasons for this. While Vertoghnen and Alderweireld have been defensive rock for Spurs since 2015-16, age is catching up with them and Davinson Sanchez has not developed as expected while Foyth is still raw. At left back, Rose was in that position in Poch’s first match and Ben Davies was on the bench, which was exactly the case in this season’s opener. At right back, Trippier was let go despite the fact that Walker-Peters is not an adequate replacement and Aurier has never been trusted by Poch. All in all Spurs have the worst defense since 2015-16.

The other reason for this is the absence of midfield shield. Till 2017-18, Spurs had Dembele and Wanyama as defensive midfielders with Dier filling in when needed. Wanyama was the destroyer while Dembele was Dembele (Side note – Dembele is one of my all-time favorite player, his close control has left me speechless many a times). At present they have Winks who is a fine player and does provide verticality but he is not someone who can break up plays and same is true for Sissoko though he can break it up in a better manner than Winks. Dier has not been able to regain the place in midfield and his presence in the starting XI this weekend did him no favours. Ndombele the new summer signing has looked promising but has missed almost 3 matches due to injury and was hooked after half time during the weekend.

The Poch Predicament

For many of us, a team’s performance is closely tied with the manager, and in case of Spurs this seems to be doubly true since it was Poch who created this Spurs team in his image and made a team who were below the elite level able to compete at the top table. Poch made Spurs competitive and gave them the bite which had been missing for a long time, but it seems Poch himself has lost some of his spark.

Bela Guttman had said that a manager should never stay at a club for more than 3 years. If a manager stays at a club more than that, he said, his players tend to become bored and/or complacent and opponents start to work out counter-strategies. Jonathan Wilson had written an excellent article on this phenomenon in Pep’s fourth season with Barcelona. That was the season when Pep didn’t win the La Liga for the first time. Another high profile example of this is Klopp’s last season at Dortmund. In 2014-15 Dortmund’s performance fell of the cliff, in the first half of the season they were even in last position. They rallied in the 2nd half to finish 7th, but that season was a disaster for a team which had finished 2nd the season before.

Poch seems to be going through the same phase. One way to ensure something like this does not happen is to keep churning the players. Poch tried that this summer, but was unable to do so. Some of the players who needed to be moved out either because they were not fit for purpose anymore or wanted to move themselves but could not be sold while out of the 4 new signings 2 are currently injured and one has been sent on loan as per the signing agreement. All this has meant that out of the 11 players who started this weekend against Brighton also started the season opener in 2015-16 and 2 more were on the bench that day. With time it seems players have become less receptive towards Poch’s methods and at this level even a slight drop in performance means drop off from a top 4 regular to mid table mediocrity.

What does this mean for our fantasy teams?

Spurs suddenly have not become a bad team but at present they are performing like a mid-table team while their players are priced at top 4 level. This has meant that we are not getting the returns expected from players at that price range. This can go either of two ways, Poch leaves the job and a new manager lifts the performance or Poch stays and motivates the team one last time to rally similar to what Klopp did at Dortmund. Either way having Spurs players in our teams would not be a prudent choice for the time being. Our advice would be to wait and watch, if and when Spurs do pick up form, buy the players who surely would have dropped in price by then. There is one other way this can go, Poch stays on the job and performances don’t get better. In that case I will go cry in a corner lamenting the loss of the only time since I started watching football when every Spurs match generated hope and excitement rather than being a reason to get worried while you should not get any of their players in your FPL team.

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