Documentation proving that I have informed the University of Alabama task force in charge of dealing with coronavirus that many more people will die if they do not take proactive measures. They have released that they have no intention of canceling classes. Your hands will stain the seas scarlet. by guest on 11th March 2020 08:19:47 AM

Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo & Katie Osburne





I have been watching SARS-CoV-2 closely over the past month or so and have been becoming increasingly dissatisfied with our Country's response to the rapidly growing threat that this virus presents. As a result of this, I feel that basing policies and decisions on only the information that has been made available through government sponsored sources is brash and will result in delayed response that could potentially have severe impacts on the health and general well being of Tuscaloosa's residents. Due to the lack of information and at times, point-blank disinformation, I have taken it upon myself to find and verify information that should be available to the public and those, like yourselves, making choices that will impact the lives of thousands to millions. During my research I have found a number of risk factors that are being neglected by these government sponsored sources and, if they were taken into account, could substantially lower the threshold required to take significant preventative action.





1) There are not enough test kits to properly track the spread of SARS-CoV-2.





2) The government has continuously downplayed the severity of the outbreak, purposefully skewed statistics, and deliberately spread their apathetic outlook.





3) SARS-CoV-2 can lay dormant in the host for up to 14 days and they become a viable transmission vector even before minor symptoms become apparent.





4) SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted at distances significantly larger than the accepted safe distance, can remain in the air for 30 minutes, and can survive on surfaces for days.





5) The previous strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV) left survivors with life long health complications.





6) Findings from a paper published in 2007 "demonstrate a strong association between early, sustained, and layered application of nonpharmaceutical interventions and mitigating the consequences of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in the United States."





7) "so far only one measure has been effective against the coronavirus: extreme social distancing."





There are no 'confirmed' cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Alabama, but in no way does that mean that the virus is not here. Dr. Matt McCarthy, author of Superbugs and Infectious disease physician said on CNBC:





"I still do not have a rapid diagnostic test available... The CDC created a test, sent the test out to 50 states and then said, 'oop, hold up, don't use it. Let us fix it.' its now March... I still have to call the department of health, make my case, plead to test people. This is not good." (1a[1:00-1:34])

"The person who tested positive was only the 32nd test we've done in this state. That is a national scandal. They are testing 10,000 a day in some countries and we can't get this off the ground... I don't have the tools to properly care for patients today." (1a[2:04-2:20])





The lack of testing is one of the most important risk factors because without proper testing there is no way to really know the full extent of SARS-CoV-2's spread. The numbers we're seeing today are likely a fraction of the total cases, and there's no way to tell if the virus has spread to states beyond what is being reported by government sponsored sources, because "the low case count is likely due to how few people have been tested." (1b)





Q: "It's got an incubation period of potentially a couple of weeks, so are we just always gonna be behind the 8 ball on this, where we're reacting to the news two weeks later."

A: "Well we have a lot of diagnosed cases, to his point right now, there are probably low thousands of cases in this country that we need to turn over the card on, so were gonna have a surge in cases before we start to catch up to the actual level of spread" (1a[5:57-6:17])





"A week or two from now is when we are going to begin getting real information, right now, were still largely flying blind" (1a[8:11-8:18])





Another important risk factor and likely the most dangerous is that the government is actively spreading misinformation about the level of risk that SARS-CoV-2 presents to The United States. In a recent statement made by Donald Trump, he said that:

"We made a good move. We closed it down. We stopped it. Otherwise, the head of the CDC said last night that you would've had thousand of more problems if we didn't shut it down very early. that was a very early shut down" (2a)

To which, a CNN fact check reporter responded:

"Well we clearly didn't stop it. Ya know, this virus is spreading in the United States." (2a)

This sort of misinformation is going to cause massive harm to the general population and similar statements and actions are continuing to this day. One such action that transpired yesterday was that the Trump administration postponed the release of an important intelligence report warning that the United States remains unprepared for a global pandemic.





"Rather than acting on these recurrent warnings and bolstering America’s ability to respond to an outbreak, the Trump administration has instead cut back money and personnel from pandemic preparedness. In May 2018, Trump’s aides dismissed the National Security Council’s global health security staff and moved to cut its budget. The White House also cut the budgets of the Centers for Disease Control and the Department of Health and Human Services, and closed the federal government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund." (2b)





"The message today that we are hearing from this administration that 'the risk is low' and that 'things are probably going to be okay. You don't need to change your lifestyle.' That's simply not true. There are going to be thousands of cases here. We have already moved from containment to mitigation. We are trying to lessen the severity here. You are going to see widespread disruption to daily life. Do not believe the false reassurance." (1a[3:04-3:27])





The rampant misinformation, combined with SARS-CoV-2's ability to lay dormant for up to 14 days (3) has created an extremely high risk environment where carriers that are unaware they have contracted the virus continue to go about their lives with a false sense of security while they have the potential to unknowingly infect anyone that happens to get too close or touch something the carrier had touched within the last few days. These are risk factors 3 and 4.





"The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.

The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper." (4)





Make sure to view the bus diagram from source 4





SARS-CoV-2's ability to travel greater distances and survive longer away from a host than initially hypothesized is likely playing a large part in the rapid rate of transmission, but transmission is only one side of the coin. The other side is risk factor 5: It is also possible, if not likely, that SARS-CoV-2 will carry with it, life long health complications in addition to the the initial effects on the respiratory system like the SARS virus in 2003.





"Patients who were infected but came through the epidemic are learning that severe acute respiratory syndrome can leave lingering physical and psychological effects, which not only don’t resolve over time but can actually get worse.

SARS, initially considered a severely acute illness that would resolve like other pneumonias, has turned out to be a chronic disease with symptoms that researchers speculate could persist for life." (5)





Considering the lack of test kits, rampant misinformation, 2 week dormancy, greater than hypothesized transmission ability, and the possibility of life long health complications, SARS-CoV-2 is not something to be taken lightly. With so many unknowns, it would be a brash decision to be reactive rather than proactive. This is not the first time we've faced a problem like this and studies have shown that, in the past, proactive measures can significantly lessen the impact of such a threat. One such study on the influenza pandemic in 1918-1919 showed that:





"The cities that implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions earlier had greater delays in reaching peak mortality (Spearman r = −0.74, P < .001), lower peak mortality rates (Spearman r = 0.31, P = .02), and lower total mortality (Spearman r = 0.37, P = .008). There was a statistically significant association between increased duration of nonpharmaceutical interventions and a reduced total mortality burden (Spearman r = −0.39, P = .005)." (6)

"These findings demonstrate a strong association between early, sustained, and layered application of nonpharmaceutical interventions and mitigating the consequences of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in the United States. In planning for future severe influenza pandemics, nonpharmaceutical interventions should be considered for inclusion as companion measures to developing effective vaccines and medications for prophylaxis and treatment." (6)

"Most pandemic influenza policy makers agree that even the most rigorous nonpharmaceutical interventions are unlikely either to prevent a pandemic or change a population's underlying biological susceptibility to the pandemic virus. However, a growing body of theoretical modeling research suggests that nonpharmaceutical interventions might play a salubrious role in delaying the temporal effect of a pandemic; reducing the overall and peak attack rate; and reducing the number of cumulative deaths.11-15 Such measures could potentially provide valuable time for production and distribution of pandemic-strain vaccine and antiviral medication. Optimally, appropriate implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions would decrease the burden on health care services and critical infrastructure." (6)





Risk factors 6 is that those in charge of policy concerning the spread of SARS-CoV-2 can worsen the impact of the virus by neglecting to act fast enough. This is made even more problematic given the rampant misinformation concerning the virus which makes it increasingly more likely that those in charge of policy will act reactivity instead of proactively and unintentionally contribute to the infection, death, and possible long term health concerns of a large portion of those they are supposed to protect.





When the influenza epidemic of 1918 infected a quarter of the U.S. population, killing tens of millions of people, seemingly small choices made the difference between life and death. (7)

As the disease was spreading, Wilmer Krusen, Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a huge parade to take place on September 28th; some 200,000 people marched. In the following days and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000 residents had died. (7)

In St. Louis, a public health commissioner named Max Starkloff decided to shut the city down. Ignoring the objections of influential businessmen, he closed the city’s schools, bars, cinemas, and sporting events. Thanks to his bold and unpopular actions, the per capita fatality rate in St. Louis was half that of Philadelphia. (In total roughly 1,700 people died from influenza in St Louis.) (7)

In the coming days, thousands of people across the country will face the choice between becoming a Wilmer Krusen or a Max Starkloff. (7)

In the moment, it will seem easier to follow Krusen’s example. For a few days, while none of your peers are taking the same steps, moving classes online or canceling campaign events will seem profoundly odd. People are going to get angry. You will be ridiculed as an extremist or an alarmist. But it is still the right thing to do. (7)

What side of history do you want to be on? If the virus really has been 'closed down' it's an over reaction and there are substantial and unnecessary economic and social impacts, but in the far more likely event that SARS-CoV-2 is as dangerous as it appears then you could be responsible for making it more likely that the impact on health care services and critical infrastructure is minimal, reducing the overall and peak attack rate, and saving the lives of and reducing the damage inflicted on the people you're meant to protect. The choice is yours.





Please confirm that you have received this email as soon as possible.





Nicholas Spears Goode





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1a) https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/02/coronavirus-testing-emergency-room-doctor-cdc-department-health-squawk-box.html

1b) https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/03/06/the-us-has-the-worlds-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-at-more-than-5-a-number-that-reflects-the-countrys-lack-of-testing/23941708/





2a) https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/07/politics/fact-check-white-house-coronavirus-contained/index.html

2b) https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/





3) https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/09/coronavirus-sufferers-symptom-free-for-five-days-on-average-study





4) https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay





5) https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars_survivors_struggle_with_symptoms_years_later.html





6) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354





7) https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/