OTTAWA—Liberals awoke Monday to stunning news on the federal front but by dinner time were digesting something much less palatable.

If there was a link between the jump in federal support numbers andDalton McGuinty’s resignation as Ontario premier it was that they both happened on the same Monday.

Just another day for the country’s most erratic political brand.

Justin Trudeau may be providing ephemeral hope in the federal party, but McGuinty’s late day announcement was a more honest appraisal of where this once-proud brand stood.

If you are a Liberal in this country today you have to grapple with some uncomfortable realities.

The Nanos Research survey which vaulted Liberals into second place nationally with 30 per cent support means nothing other than Canadians know the name Trudeau. It is no indication of what they will think of Justin Trudeau in three years when Canadians are scheduled to vote again.

The McGuinty resignation means the top Liberal job now seems to be open everywhere, including the two largest Canadian provinces and the federal level.

It is so endangered in the third-largest province that British Columbia leader Christy Clark, who uses the name Liberal if not its ideology, is musing about changing the name.

The job is also open or soon will be in Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Manitoba.

The Liberal party may mean different things in different provinces, but seven job vacancies do translate into one commonality: a party in incredible flux.

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It holds stable power in only Prince Edward Island, Canada’s smallest province.

It has lost stalwarts such as Gordon Campbell, Jean Charest and now McGuinty.

Bob Rae is stepping aside federally.

MORE:The self-inflicted death of Dalton McGuinty’s bold agenda

McGuinty did not rule out a federal run, using the politician’s refuge of “making no plans,” but it’s hard to make a federal run while escaping a box at the provincial level.

You don’t spark a federal buzz by proroguing your legislature with opposition MPPs howling “contempt” with your wage-freeze legislation threatening to bring down your government, barely a month after your cynical move to regain your majority at the by-election ballot box was thwarted by voters in Kitchener.

McGuinty had been on the list of “dream” candidates for the federal Liberal leadership, but that seemed to be a different McGuinty from a different time.

Yes, he was a Liberal who knew how to win, a Liberal who won without the flash and dry ice that the party always seems to be seeking, a Liberal who personified decency and over 16 years did nothing to sully the profession known as “politician.”

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When he spoke here at the federal Liberal leadership convention he created a lot of talk, but delivered a message, telling them renewal didn’t come overnight and reminding them it took him seven years to become the premier after winning the provincial leadership.

The problem with the federal Liberal “prize” is that it is anything but that for anyone who comes from a position of power, whether once premier of Quebec or Ontario, or Bank of Canada governor.

The other problem for McGuinty is that longevity in politics merely leads to disenchantment.

McGuinty and Charest were routinely ranked the least popular premiers in the country. Jean Chrétien once had to promise he was in his last campaign if he was to be re-elected. Brian Mulroney was unelectable by the time he stepped aside.

It is an open question whether Stephen Harper can overcome that perception after nine years as prime minister, should he decide to run again in 2015.

Right now, Liberal rejuvenation in this country seems to rest on the shoulders of two men, Trudeau and Philippe Couillard, the frontrunner to replace Charest.

If the party’s early rebound can be found in Quebec, its future in Ontario is murkier.

There are candidates to replace McGuinty, although no obvious heir apparent, but more importantly, the party will now be competing for resources and energy at the federal, Quebec and Ontario levels simultaneously.

The McGuinty for federal leader talk will not shut down easily. It has not shut down for Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

But the real gift for federal Liberals will not be a McGuinty federal leadership bid.

The real gift will be if Monday’s decision means he hit the off ramp in time for his party to actually renew in the country’s largest province.

Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column usually appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tharper@thestar.ca

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