Briefly, my predictions are

President: (mode) Obama 332, Romney 206 EV, (median) Obama 309, Romney 229 EV. Two-candidate popular vote: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.

House: Democrats win 2-22 seats. D 205+/-10, R 230+/-10 seats, Republicans retain control.

Senate: Democrats win 1-3 seats. D/I 55 +/1, R 45 +/- 1 seats, Democrats retain control. More on the Senate here.

The poll-based median Senate outcome is 55 Democratic/Independent seats, 45 Republican seats. It is very focused: 85% of the probability is concentrated in the range of 54-56 D/I seats.

Win probabilities:

>90% Democratic. Connecticut (Murphy), Massachusetts (Warren), Missouri (McCaskill), North Dakota (Heitkamp), Virginia (Kaine).

81-89% Democratic. Indiana (Donnelly), Wisconsin (Baldwin).

71-80% Democratic. Montana (Tester).

75% Republican. Nevada (Heller).

>90% Republican: Arizona (Flake).

Update: Wow, I’m getting it good and hard in comments. I made a transcription error on North Dakota – the probability there is 75%. Sorry!

Also, I should not have expressed these primarily as probabilities. The probability function is a nonlinear function of margin and SEM. That means it (a) can offend intuition, and (b) is susceptible to user error.

In regard to the latter, it would be better for me to add in a possible bias of b=-2% to +2%, as defined before. That slop factor will give a more realistic assessment given poll accuracy. The “slopped-up” probabilities are below.