A new poll in the tightly-contested 49th Congressional District campaign shows that state tax board member Diane Harkey has taken a breakaway lead with a pack of Democrats in a mathematical tie for second place.

Harkey, R-Dana Point, was backed by 24 percent of likely voters in a San Diego Union-Tribune/10News poll conducted between May 29 and 31, well ahead of the two Democrats who were tied for second at 11 percent.

Harkey, a former Dana Point mayor and Assembly member, was endorsed by the San Diego and Orange County Republican parties as well as the incumbent, Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who chose not to seek re-election. It’s a notable gain after other previous polls put Harkey in a distant third or beyond.

“We are very pleased with the results, which match our own internal tracking,” said David Gilliard, Harkey’s campaign consultant. “We will continue to work hard until the polls close on Tuesday.”


The top two voter getters in the June 5 primary will proceed to a runoff election in November, regardless of party.

With a close race on the horizon, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said that voter turnout will be important to that party’s success.

“Poll after poll has shown that this is a tight race, and after a year and a half of hard work and organizing, Democrats must come out to the polls to be on the ballot this November,” committee spokesman Andrew Godinich said by email.

Lawyer Doug Applegate and former non-profit executive Sara Jacobs were tied for second at 11 percent with Mike Levin, also a lawyer, at 10 percent. All three are Democrats. Assemblyman Rocky Chávez, R-Oceanside and businessman Paul Kerr, a Democrat, followed at 8 percent.


It’s a big slide for Chavez, who polled at 16 percent in early April. He has been portrayed as a big spender in the statehouse in an attack ad by national Democrats, who apparently saw him as a candidate they did not want to face in November.

The poll also shows that Applegate’s base has shifted since the 2016 election, when he challenged Issa and lost by 1,621 votes . Of his supporters from two years ago, 26 percent are still backing him, while 20 percent moved to Jacobs and another 20 percent switched to Levin.

While the SurveyUSA poll put Levin in a virtual tie for second, another touted by his campaign by Democratic polling company Tulchin Research put him at at 17 percent, ahead of Harkey who had 15 percent. The poll had a 4 percentage point margin of error, meaning they were neck-and-neck. Applegate was at 12 percent in that poll, and Chávez was at 11 percent.

» Full interactive crosstabs


As early in-person voting begins on Saturday, 13 percent of voters remain undecided. Voters can cast a ballot on Saturday through Monday between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. at the county Registrar of Voters office at 5600 Overland Ave. in Kearny Mesa. Of those surveyed, 31 percent had already cast their ballot.

Sixteen candidates are running to represent the 49th District, an area that runs from La Jolla to Dana Point and includes Oceanside, Vista and San Juan Capistrano.

Like nearly every midterm election, this one appears to be a referendum on the current administration. Thirty-one said that the job President Donald Trump is doing is their biggest issue, followed by 17 percent who listed the economy. About 51 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s work, while 45 percent approve.

The poll included 700 registered voters who were interviewed either over a landline by a professionally recorded announcer or over a cell phone by an operator. Of the 700 voters, 612 had already either cast their ballot or were likely to vote in the primary. The poll had a 4.7 percentage point credibility interval.



Twitter: @jptstewart

joshua.stewart@sduniontribune.com

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