Choosing a more prudent offseason approach to the Leafs 2019–20 Cap Crunch

Where the Leafs Are Right Now

Sometimes the obvious is so blindingly obvious, we shuck it off in favour of something more exciting, sexy, and dare I say, unrealistic. Like chasing after someone we imagine is perfect instead of that girl next door, the one we ignored all those years, but after everything was said and done we ended up marrying her because it was just right.

The Leafs 2019–20 Salary Cap situation has been scrutinized and dissected more than a CSI crime scene. Marner, Kapanen, and Johnsson need to be signed and that has led to a lot of speculation. Trade scenarios have been the lifeblood of twitter and sports talk radio these days, what with the challenge of imagining impossibly difficult and intricate cap-freeing moves for Patrick Marleau ($6.25M) and Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5M) combined with fears that a $10M+ Mitch Marner mega-contract will all-but-gut the rest of the team.

We all have a natural desire to see C.H.A.N.G.E. after a third failed first round. But the truth is the Leafs have grown into a contender primarily through patience and smart, prudent steps.

Like every NHL team under a restrictive salary cap, any fan can easily see the flaws in the Leafs roster, from the mythical right D to the aging, overpaid winger. Fans want to see a quick fix, hoping that other teams are chomping at the bit to take on a big cap hit or an ineffective overpaid defenseman, that a player with a No Move Clause is actually willing to move away from a contender, or that other teams are eager to give away one of their crown jewels on defence.

My personal view is that the Leafs evolved into a top 5 team during the playoffs and the changes needed are not major.

This is good news because most of the sexy solutions we see floated are simply unrealistic or very unlikely.

The Leafs have an enviable core and came very, very close to beating the top Eastern Conference team — the Boston Bruins. You could make a good argument that the difference in the series was one bonehead play that left the Leafs without one of their key parts for most of the series — Nazem Kadri. If you want to play the injury card, how about losing two of their best defensemen to late season injuries and having to shelter them as a third pair?

The simple fact is the Leafs have a good team. They have star centres in Tavares and Matthews, an elite young winger in Marner, a Norris-worthy young defenceman in Morgan Rielly, a top 8 goaltender in Freddy Andersen, the best third line centre in the league, and another throw-in winger who happened to lead the IIHF World Championships in points this month.

So rather than blow things up or imagine next-to-impossible magical trades to get under an expected $83M Salary Cap, what if we just looked at what the free agent signings might realistically cost and see what we have when the dust clears?

RFA Signings

No, I’m not going to entertain offer sheet risks, I just don’t see them happening, no matter what fodder has been fed to mainstream media by agents or mischievous GM’s.

Mitch Marner — $9.15M x 6 years

Back in April I took a quick look at Marner’s comparables and tweeted this out:

The midpoint of this $8.9M — $9.4M range is the figure I will go with, $9.15M. The low end of the range for me was set by looking at what Patrick Kane got because no player matched up as closely to Marner when I posted this back in November when Mitch was on a torrid pace.

Marner ended the season in 10th place with 94 points. He tallied 224 points in 241 games over his three ELC seasons. The November comparison I made to Patrick Kane is still there — Kane collected 230 points in his first 244 games.

Since Kane’s contract was almost 10 years ago and before the recent trend to pay elite RFA’s a bigger % of the cap, I considered it to be at the low-end of any range but still an important marker.

It’s an oversimplification but my upper limit was definitely bolstered by the limit that elite wingers are getting paid — $9.5M for Mark Stone this winter and the same $9.5M for someone named Nikita Kucherov. Keep in mind that neither got anywhere near that on their 2nd contracts. So I would think most GM’s would consider $9.5M an overpay even after you make adjustments for age, salary cap, etc.

I chose a 6 year term because a) neither side would find a short term deal attractive (1–4 years), b) the extra AAV needed for 8 years would be out of reach for the Leafs given the 2019–20 Cap Crunch and c) I don’t think either side would want a 5 year term and be going through the next contract negotiations in 2024 at the same time as Matthews and Nylander.

It turns out I’m not alone in seeing a contract in the low 9’s. If you still maintain that Mitch will get paid $10M+, I can point you to these more recent AAV projections for a 6 year deal:

Kasperi Kapanen 2 x $2.7M and Andreas Johnsson (2 x $2.5M)

I had originally guessed that they could each be signed for around $3M +/- .3M. Fairly comparable wingers like Ondrej Kase at 2 x $2.6M and Anthony Mantha at 2 x $3.3M helped lead me to that range.

I feel I would be reworking well-tilled earth if I got into more detail because Ian Tulloch again did some good research in this Athletic article. In it, he concludes

Kapanen for 2–3 years in the $2.7 million range

Johnsson for 2–3 years in the $2.4–3.1 million range

Evolving Wild’s 2019 contract prediction model is the successor to the highly-regarded work Matt Cane did before the Devils hired him. Here are their estimates for 1–3 year terms:

Given the Leafs tight Cap situation after paying Mitch Marner his due, the only feasible way I can see the Leafs signing both wingers is to go for 1–2 year bridge deals. And that’s exactly what I expect Kyle Dubas will do.

My guess is that Kasperi Kapanen, with his greater body of work and younger age will be signed to a 2 year deal at about $2.7M.

Andreas Johnsson, with a promising start in his rookie season (20 goals, 43 points) with less NHL games played to justify a bigger contract at this stage is very likely looking at a 1 or 2 year bridge deal. I think AJ should sign for somewhere around 2 x $2.5M. In an ideal world, Dubas would probably want to sign them both to longer contracts but that would be problematic as far as the Cap, as you will discover further below.

If negotiations bog down with either player, I could see a one year bridge at slightly less money. Neither side would be completely happy with that but it does push off the negotiation pressure past the 2019–20 crunch.

Trades

Remember, the ‘realistic’ approach I am taking is to avoid coming up with what I think are unlikely trade scenarios. But there is one trade that I believe is almost certain — Connor Brown and his $2.1M contract. His contract is simply too expensive for the Leafs at this stage especially with his RW slot in the bottom six being heavily contested now by the likes of Kapanen and Trevor Moore.

‘Ain’t Broke’ 2019–20 Roster

With the above RFA signings and Connor Brown traded, we can take a look now at next year’s potential lineup and total cap hit. This 21 man roster comes in at $82,759,699. That’s just below the projected Salary Cap of $83M while accounting for the 3 RFA signings and the continuation of Marleau’s and Zaitsev’s large contracts.

A normal NHL roster is at the max of 23, going to 21 is a little unusual but I believe feasible. An extra defenceman is still available (Borgman) and if there is a last-minute injury on the road, he can fill in. If a forward is injured, the Leafs with their three high-end centres and top 9 can certainly play an 11F/7D roster in an emergency. If a forward injury is at home, there’s also a good chance a Marlie can hop in a cab.

The actual roster may not have Hyman and Dermott healthy to start the season, let your imagination run wild, there are several options that further reduce the cap hit for the extra 4–8 weeks involved.

It’s true that this defence is weaker on paper than last year’s with the loss of Jake Gardiner and dare I say Ron Hainsey. Jake Muzzin helps offset the loss of Gardiner and much is going to be expected of Travis Dermott when he returns to health.

[An aside: Much has been said about the Leafs defence but what I noticed during the Boston series was the bearing down to a team defence led by players like John Tavares and Jake Muzzin. The scoring chance suppression was night and day better compared to the regular high pace/high fun regular season, as this chart on 5v5 expected goals against shows, because the coaches and players simply modified their approach and their priorities.

There is latent defence in the Leafs, you won’t find it by staring at regular season CA/60 or xGA/60 when they are pressing CF/60 and xGF/60 and allowing the pace (CF/60 + CA/60) to climb. My advice: Don’t be misled by ‘lobotomy’ stats like CA/60 because they depend on the team’s game pace and system. I’m not saying the Leafs defence doesn’t need improvement, I’m just saying it’s been over-criticized.]

One other point here: this constructed lineup purposefully fills in certain slots with low cost players: Gauthier, Moore, Rosen, Holl, and Borgman together add up to only $3.575M in cap hit, an average of $715K. To put that in perspective, the minimum NHL salary is $700K this upcoming season (for new contracts).

These choices do mean that higher cost replacement players like Korshkov ($925K), Engvall ($925K), Bracco ($842.5K), Liljegren ($863.3) and even Sandin ($894.2K) are less likely to appear in the regular lineup (even if they are ready).

The one exception I made was Ilya Mikheyev at $925K, simply because I believe he was promised a spot in the lineup as part of his agreement to sign with the Leafs.

Summing Up

We can hope that Marleau agrees to a move to free up his cap hit, we can hope that Zaitsev is sent out as part of a plan to replace him with a top 4 RHD, but these are pipe dreams. We can hope for a big trade to get a top pair RD but we may not like the price. More likely, the Leafs are patient, smart, and pick up a timely trade deadline rental again.

When I look up at that ‘ain’t broke’ roster, I see plenty of slots where players have still not reached their peak and core areas that are capable of taking a serious run at the Cup in 2019–20. We should be thankful for what we have. It’s pretty, pretty, good.

And it didn’t even take a miraculous trade.