Transcript for FiveThirtyEight releases House forecast update

Yeah. The classic version of size 38 house forecast currently gives Democrats about a Ivins sex or about an 82% chance of winning a majority. And he gives Republicans about a won in six. This is the first time our forecast. Has given the Democrats more than an 80% chance of winning house since the launch of a model. So why I have the chances improved. Two reasons. First we got a new batch of generic ballot polls. And many of them showed Democrats with a double digit lead that included some of our highest rated pollsters such as Marist college and Quinnipiac University our current generic ballot which takes a lot of convincing before will believe a new trend is real shows Democrats leading Republicans by about 9%. It wasn't just generic ballot polls Democrats also got some good district model. With a four and a half point lead over incumbent Republican representative John fast. It was the first nonpartisan survey to show Delgado meeting and our classic forecasts which have the Democrat as a slight underdog now shows him as the slight favorites. Go to find thirty dot com slash house forecast to explore the model for years and.

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