The Dallas school district has proposed shutting down or consolidating 22 campuses and on Thursday will discuss the fate of an Old East Dallas elementary.

This week's discussion about potentially shuttering Zaragoza Elementary is just one of several tough talks trustees are expected to have soon as the school district tries to balance years of declining student enrollment with efforts to woo families back.

Two weeks ago the board got its first look at what a more widespread closing of schools could look like if they were to follow the initial draft of a new long-range facilities plan.

That plan outlines how the district might shut down nearly two dozen campuses. At the same time, DISD may need to pitch a bond program to voters in 2021 to replace or upgrade aging schools. That bond money would also likely fund more "choice" campuses, such as new career tech hubs or schools with programs similar to that of the Booker T. Washington High School for the Performing and Visual Arts.

Potentially on the chopping block are elementary schools including Ireland, Rosemont, Jones, Twain, Hall, Dunbar, Gooch, Reilly, Pershing, Urban Park, Miller, Field, Webster, Carr, Oliver, Milam and Holland.

The plan also recommends demolishing Reagan, Hogg and Peeler and replacing the three elementary schools with one new campus at the best site. A new school would also replace Pease and Bushman at one of the elementary sites.

Nolan Estes Plaza, where alternative schooling and other district operations are located, would close, with those programs moving to another site. The IDEA at James W. Fannin transformation high school would move to North Dallas High, operating separately but sharing the campus.

At a recent workshop, some trustees appeared reluctant to move forward on aspects of the plan. Others acknowledged that it's necessary to consider even sensitive school closures. It's not clear how far trustees would go in actually shuttering schools.

"Consolidating schools, changing boundaries are about as close as you can get to thermonuclear war in the school business," President Edwin Flores told fellow board members at a recent meeting. He noted that the district needs to "right size" schools.

DISD has seen enrollment dropped over the past few decades from 180,00 students to about 157,000 now. Much of that decline is attributed to families leaving for charter schools. Projections show a further drop in students unless the district can continue attracting them back.

'Courageous' conversations ahead

The proposed long-range plan laid out various metrics for evaluating schools that need to be replaced, renovated or closed based on factors such as enrollment, age and operations cost.

Of the district's 221 campuses, 99 are more than 60 years old. The last bond to replace and upgrade schools was approved by voters in 2015. The draft of the long-range plan identifies nearly $6 billion in needs for campus replacements, renovations, security upgrades, technology and other needs.

But the long-range plan also looks at schools that may need to close. And most of those -- 15 campuses -- are south of Interstate 30. That's where the district is losing the most students to charter schools.

Last school year, about 34,500 students lived in DISD but attended a charter -- small, independently run public schools not associated with DISD. Nearly three out of four of those children lived in that southern area.

Superintendent Michael Hinojosa said trustees will need to have "courageous" conversations about "where our future goes."

"In the end, we need to make the best decisions for the long term of Dallas about how we renovate and modernize our campuses," he said.

Trustee Joyce Foreman was concerned that DISD was giving preference to niche schools -- those with special programs -- over those serving neighborhoods.

"We can't have a double standard," she said. "Choice schools get a priority and neighborhood schools don't?"

She was also concerned that consolidating schools would mean busing more students across the city. "We're sucking at transportation right now," she said, referencing the district's growing pains as it runs its own bus service for the first time this school year.

Hinojosa said that while trustees might consider moving some choice programs that haven't grown as fast, many of the smaller ones are just in their initial phases.

Trustee Lew Blackburn said some suggestions don't make sense, such as campus moves that would have students crossing major streets or even DART rail lines to get to school. He noted that families have opted to leave the district rather than move to another DISD school.

"We're actually causing parents to take their child to a school further away from home. And if they happen to pass by a charter school on the way, we're going to lose kids," Blackburn said.

What's next

Thursday's discussion focuses only on whether the district should close Zaragoza, sending those students to César Chávez Learning Center less than a mile away.

But it was just this year that two other schools -- J.W. Ray and John F. Kennedy -- closed their doors, sending those families to Chávez as well. And at least one option in the long-range plan could move students from Milam Elementary to Chávez.

Zaragoza currently has about 330 students enrolled and Milam has 293. Chávez has 680 now, but room for 1,126 students.

Zaragoza had more than 550 students about a decade ago, but enrollment has steadily fallen each year. The draft of the long-range plan also includes another option for Zaragoza: Turning it into a specialty campus focused on personalized learning.

Officials plan to have further discussions on the long-range facilities plan, and trustees expect to have community meetings across the district.

Thursday's board briefing begins at 11:30 a.m. at administration offices at 5151 Samuell Blvd.