Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell faces snowballing pressure to tackle an overhaul of the criminal justice system. But deep dissension within his own party — between pro-reform Republicans and law-and-order types — is threatening one of the few items on the congressional agenda with a real chance of becoming law this year.

Criminal justice legislation is backed by the two top vote-counters of each party in the Senate and a powerful right-left coalition. It was bolstered by a presidential shout-out in the State of the Union last week. Passing a bill would advance McConnell’s favorite narrative — that the Senate is working again.


But loosening some mandatory minimum sentences is still a toxic suggestion among a vocal segment of the GOP, criticism that the presidential primary could amplify. Some backers of the bill fret that Sen. Ted Cruz, who’s vaulted into the top tier in the GOP presidential primary, might seize on the issue ahead of the Iowa caucuses. The Texas Republican has warned that a bill pending in the Senate could release violent criminals into the streets.

Still, backers are pressing ahead. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), McConnell’s top deputy, has lobbied the majority leader to take up the proposal early this year. Backers say the Senate has to move on criminal justice reform quickly, perhaps as soon as next month, for the measure to have any hope of reaching President Barack Obama’s desk.

“The goal is not to get unanimous support. The goal would be to get enough bipartisan consensus so that we could do something important and something the president wants to do, something that Republicans and Democrats want to do,” Cornyn said in a recent interview. “I don’t know why, if that’s actually the case, why we can’t actually do it.”

Yet, McConnell has given no clues how he plans to proceed.

The Kentucky Republican demurred in multiple year-end interviews on whether he will take up the popular measure, which would reduce mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent drug offenders and make other changes to the criminal justice system. The measure passed 15-5 out of the Senate Judiciary Committee in October; all five dissenting votes were Republicans.

McConnell’s reticence is in sharp contrast with Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), who has spoken openly about the need for criminal justice reform as part of a broader GOP policy agenda.

But, unlike McConnell, Ryan isn’t at serious risk of losing his majority in November. McConnell is reluctant to hold votes that cleave his conference.

“I don’t think it’s a healthy thing to do,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), another fervent opponent of the justice bill. “If we lay off drug prosecutions, we’re going to see even more murders and crimes, deaths and destruction. I think we need to slow down, be careful about this.”

Senate leadership is well aware of Cruz’s resistance to the criminal justice bill and how the timing of the presidential caucuses in Iowa could influence the Senate debate, should there be one. The Iowa caucuses are now less than two weeks away, and Cruz is leading in some recent polls.

“I mean, you can’t ignore that,” Cornyn said of Cruz’s opposition. “So that’s going to be part of our conversation.”

It also remains to be seen how 2016 Senate politics will affect the bill’s prospects. Several Republican senators are up for reelection in blue and purple states.





Among them are Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Richard Burr of North Carolina, both of whom have endorsed the sentencing legislation. A poll commissioned by the U.S. Justice Action Network, a coalition of advocacy groups pushing for criminal justice reform, found that 60 percent of Ohio voters say they are “more likely” to elect a candidate who embraces measures such as replacing mandatory minimum sentences and using alternatives to incarceration for some nonviolent offenders. The survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.

“Rob Portman, that’s the perfect example,” said Holly Harris, the coalition’s executive director. “There’s an individual that’s got to reach out to independent and moderate voters and these issues obviously speak to individuals all across the political spectrum.”

But sources tracking the Senate criminal justice debate say Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who also faces a tough race, could be persuaded to oppose the legislation, considering his profile as a law-and-order Republican closely allied with police. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) is also being watched closely: Opponents of the bill are circulating articles about violence in Chicago as a not-so-subtle push to get Kirk, one of the chamber's most vulnerable Republicans on the ballot this year, to reject the sentencing reform measure.

Both senators said they had no opinion on the bill yet, though Kirk said he is reviewing the legislation. “The details matter here for me," he said.

Others tracking the Senate process say Republicans such as Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama and Johnny Isakson of Georgia, both up for reelection and cognizant of challenges from the right, are likely to reject the bill. Their home-state counterparts – Sessions and David Perdue of Georgia – both sit on the Judiciary Committee and vocally opposed the legislation.

Some senators “are still skittish,” said Inimai Chettiar of New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice, which organized the group Law Enforcement Leaders to Reduce Crime and Incarceration. But the top target, she said, is McConnell.

“He’s the one who’s still undecided about whether or not he should bring the bill to the floor for a vote,” Chettiar said.

Advocates are pleading with Senate leaders to pass the bill.

Earlier this week, more than 60 former federal prosecutors and government officials from both parties, including ex-Attorney General Michael Mukasey and former FBI director Louis Freeh, wrote to McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) pushing for the legislation. The letter argued that the bill “makes some of the most needed improvements to the front and back ends of the federal criminal justice system.”

And on Wednesday, in advance of a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on criminal justice matters, 72 law enforcement officials will release a letter to congressional leadership underscoring their support for the Senate legislation, as well as a similar measure pending in the House.

“This is a unique moment of rare bipartisan consensus on the urgent need for criminal justice reform,” says the letter from Law Enforcement Leaders to Reduce Crime and Incarceration.

Senators who didn’t sit through the Judiciary Committee debate in October are just beginning to delve into the bill.

“I think we need to look carefully at the issue,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said. “It seems to me, in general, giving judges more discretion so that they’re not bound by the ‘three strikes and you’re out’ rule makes sense.”

Sarah Wheaton contributed to this report.