The regrowth of Arctic ice extent was slower than usual until recently. After showing resilience in September, ending higher than 2007, ice growth lagged in October, but is now rapidly ramping up toward the averages. The map above shows the lack of ice is mainly in Hudson Bay and Barents Sea. Kara, Bering and Chukchi seas have all rebounded and everything else is locked in ice.

In the last 24 days, 2016 ice extent has grown by 123k km2 per day, compared to the 10-year average 79k km2 per day. As of day 348, 2016 ice extent is ~3% less than average (2006 to 2015). The chart also shows the variability of ice extent over the years during this season. 2015 was the highest ice recovery rate in the last decade, while 2007 was the slowest. The chart also shows 2016 Sea Ice Index (SII) from NOAA has been lagging behind by more than 300k km2.

The table below shows this year compared to average and to 2007 for day 348.

Region 2016348 Day 348

Average 2016-Ave. 2007348 2016-2007 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 11762663 12168943 -406279 11501915 260748 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070445 1069448 997 1062676 7769 (2) Chukchi_Sea 937738 937789 -51 725062 212676 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1083777 3361 1053584 33553 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897832 12 897845 0 (5) Kara_Sea 742906 866952 -124046 800920 -58014 (6) Barents_Sea 271463 352281 -80818 236964 34499 (7) Greenland_Sea 494089 559862 -65773 488595 5494 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 846064 813794 32270 793616 52448 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 853214 853007 207 852556 658 (10) Hudson_Bay 820629 1085867 -265238 1217263 -396634 (11) Central_Arctic 3200307 3211105 -10799 3186190 14116 (12) Bering_Sea 227611 250748 -23137 54836 172775 (13) Baltic_Sea 11782 10418 1364 2898 8884 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 297235 166142 131093 127576 169659 (15) Yellow_Sea 0 1278 -1278 0 0 (16) Cook_Inlet 3055 6601 -3546 48 3007

Most of the deficit to average is in Kara, Barents, Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. Central Arctic, CAA, Bering Sea and BCE are all average, while Okhotsk and Baffin Bay are showing surpluses. Presently 2016 ice extent is 260k km2 greater than 2007 with large surpluses in BCE, Baffin, Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Only Hudson Bay and Kara were larger in 2007.

There is no need to panic over Arctic ice this year, or any year. It fluctuates according to its own ocean-ice-atmospheric processes and we can only watch and be surprised since we know so little about how it all works. Judah Cohen at AER thinks the much greater snowfall in October will make for a very cold winter. We shall see.

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/07/06/warm-is-cold-and-down-is-up/