Breaking down the top tiers of NHL draft prospects

USATODAY

The lines of demarcation at the top end of this year's draft are starting to come into sharper focus for us at Red Line after a month's worth of major events at home and abroad.

We might equivocate slightly on drawing the line between the first tier and the second tier, but essentially we have 11 guys broken down into three tiers.

The top tier consists of three — maybe four — players, depending on how we feel on a given day. Seth Jones, Jonathan Drouin, and Nathan MacKinnon (in that order) are in for certain. Depending on what day you ask us, Aleksander Barkov might join the group as well. It's so close, sometimes it just comes down to our last impression at our most recent viewing.

The next tier includes perhaps Barkov, then Elias Lindholm, Valeri Nichushkin and Sean Monahan in a tightly bunched group of forwards, as well as Darnell Nurse from the blue-line ranks.

The newcomers are Nichushkin and Nurse. Nichuskin followed up his strong showing at the world junior championships by absolutely wowing us at the Five Nations under-18 tournament, where he led Russia to gold with some clutch performances against Sweden and the USA. But what really shocked us was his sheer physical size: He has grown from a good-sized winger into King-Kong on skates out there. There wasn't a single defenseman in the tournament who could prevent Nichushkin from walking them down right into the goaltender's lap.

Nurse, meanwhile, has been steadily upping his game and impressing us as a beast on the back end for several months now, and our opinion on him coalesced as we watched him toss around the nation's most highly skilled forwards like so many sacks of potatoes at the CHL Top Prospects Game.

Our third tier consists of a pair of skilled wingers and a big rearguard. Hunter Shinkaruk has been out injured lately, but has done nothing but score in every conceivable fashion when he's in the lineup.

Adam Erne has jumped into contention with a great mix of size and speed off the rush — last month's off-ice issue notwithstanding.

And it seems as though Rasmus Ristolainen has been around forever (we first saw him over three years ago in Timmins, Ontario, as a barely 15 year-old kid), but he's still holding his value as a big, mobile defenseman with good puck skills.

RISING

Valeri Nichushkin: Completely dominated the world's best at Five Nations. Also, has grown into a huge monster.

Nic Petan: Has been hot for, oh, about five months now. Has convinced us he's the rare tiny guy whose hockey sense will allow him to transition to the NHL.

Laurent Dauphin: Love his smooth game, great hands, and play-making ability. Instinctive and shows awareness of different situations.

Nick Moutrey: The big kid is starting to play with an edge and is putting up points. Fairly versatile and can play multiple roles.

Nikita Zadorov: His brutal pounding of basically everything that moved had a lot of eyebrows arching at Prospects Game.

Justin Auger: So big we're not sure if we should list him as a power forward for the NHL or the NBA.

FALLING

Ryan Pulock: Mostly our fault for keeping him so high this long. We've given him a pass till now, but at some point he has to tighten up on the defensive end.

Anthony Duclair: His offensive production went south when Mikhail Grigorenko left for the NHL, and he angered teammates with some attitude issues.

Ryan Kujawinski: Showing nothing. A step behind the play. No enthusiasm in his game. Has completely lost the edge he once possessed.

NEWS AND NOTES FROM AROUND THE SCOUTING COMMUNITY

-Much of Kelowna's success is generated from the back end, where it has a trio of draft eligible blue-liners who are blossoming into something special. Madison Bowey is a first-round candidate, and at Red Line, we could easily see Jesse Lees and Mitch Wheaton finding their way into the third round.

Bowey is one of the smoothest skating defensemen in the entire draft and excels in the transition game. His quick puck movement decisions and strong defensive game make him an underrated commodity, in our opinion.

Lees is one of the youngest players in the draft (Sept. 14 birthdate), and was buried on Kelowna's deep blue-line depth chart early on. But his terrific puck skills and offensive instincts have forced him up that chart, and now he's even crashing the power play unit and producing points regularly.

Wheaton is a huge (6-5, 225) and highly mobile rearguard who has the foot speed to stick with faster forwards in containment, and the strength to clear out the crease without much more than a dirty look.

-Surrey Eagles forward Adam Tambellini might be the best hidden power forward to come out of the BCHL in the past three to four years. Traded from Vernon to Surrey, Tambellini has fit right into an already potent Eagles lineup, using his big frame to create space and his skating ability to find open lanes to drive the net. He stands 6-3 and is a natural goal scorer with plenty of confidence.

He's a scout's dream in the way he prepares himself and plays an unselfish game, making smart decisions with the puck. With his bloodlines, he certainly understands what it will take to make it at the next level. Tambellini stayed in the BCHL this year because he'll be entering North Dakota's powerhouse program next fall.

-The Rimouski Oceanic took it on the chin with two of their most important young players falling to undisclosed injuries. Rapidly improving goalie Philippe Desrosiers went down with a lower body ailment that kept him out until Feb. 27.

Towering blue-liner Samuel Morin then suffered an upper-body injury, which is supposed to shelve him until the end of the regular season.

The timing couldn't be worse for the two players, who were playing their best hockey of the year and had dramatically improved their stock.