Rising Policy Uncertainty Steven J. Davis NBER Working Paper No. 26243

Issued in September 2019

NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Public Economics, Political Economy

I review evidence of rising policy uncertainty in the U.S. and global economies, drawing heavily on newspaper-based measures. Examples from countries around the world illustrate the role of political and policy developments as drivers of fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the prominent role of trade policy as a source of uncertainty and stock market volatility since March 2018, when U.S.-China tensions began to escalate. Lastly, I offer remarks on the interplay between policy uncertainty and economic performance. You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery. Access to NBER Papers You are eligible for a free download if you are a subscriber, a corporate associate of the NBER, a journalist, an employee of the U.S. federal government with a ".GOV" domain name, or a resident of nearly any developing country or transition economy. If you usually get free papers at work/university but do not at home, you can either connect to your work VPN or proxy (if any) or elect to have a link to the paper emailed to your work email address below. The email address must be connected to a subscribing college, university, or other subscribing institution. Gmail and other free email addresses will not have access. E-mail:

Acknowledgments and Disclosures Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w26243