Vote shows public demands justice for Palestinians and does not believe Israel has worked genuinely hard to bring about peace

High-octane debates are nothing new in the tangled history of the Middle East’s oldest conflict. But Monday’s vote by MPs on whether to recognise the state of Palestine comes at an unusually sensitive moment. And whatever its outcome – it is part of a growing international trend.

Intensive lobbying has mobilised supporters of both Israel and the Palestinians in the House of Commons. The case for the motion is that Britain should follow 135 of the UN’s 193 member states and recognise Palestinian statehood. The case against is that doing so unilaterally would prejudice the outcome of future negotiations between the two parties.

The catch – that the vote will be merely symbolic and not binding for the British government – is not that important because the direction of travel is already clear. David Cameron remains reluctant to break with Barack Obama, it is said. But things may change after the US mid-term elections next month.

The vote is taking place because of long-term changes in British and European public opinion, which broadly demands justice for the Palestinians and does not accept that Israel has worked genuinely to achieve peace. Two decades since the Oslo agreement, the prospects for a two-state solution are fading fast. Israel’s continuing settlement activities in the occupied territories get much of the blame. But the deep divisions between the PLO and Hamas are also part of the problem.

The summer’s war in Gaza, with more than 2,000 Palestinian dead, was a bloody reminder that this remains a conflict with no military solution.

“Each time that there is a major event like the second Lebanon war, Operation Cast Lead [in Gaza], the Turkish flotilla, then support for Israel drops back a little more,” said one senior EU official. The nature and intensity of criticism of Israel in Britain in particular showed a marked change over the summer.

Anecdotal evidence suggests Israeli officials now discount criticism from Europe as coming from “Nazi-hugging antisemites” or “fucking Europe” – an expression that has apparently enjoyed some vogue among those closest to Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister. European diplomats admit that this has led to a Catch 22 situation, making it harder for supporters of Israel to communicate the message that Israel risks becoming more internationally isolated.

The British debate follows a recent decision by Sweden, breaking ranks with the other pre-2004 members of the EU, to recognise the state of Palestine, though after Stockholm’s initial announcement the detail of implementation is unclear.

Britain’s role attracts special interest because of its permanent membership of the UN security council as well as the legacy of the Balfour declaration, which in 1917 promised to promote a Jewish national home in the then Arab-majority Palestine, and its subsequent 30-year rule before the creation of Israel in 1948.

The PLO welcomed the UK vote as complementary to its bid for full UN membership – a means, it hopes, of increasing international pressure on Israel. Yet some Palestinian critics declared their opposition on the grounds that recognition of a state they dismiss as a “bantustan” territory, (a nominally independent tribal area in apartheid-era South Africa) would reinforce rather than end Israel’s occupation of the whole of Palestine, not just the areas it conquered in the 1967 war.

Netanyahu’s government - and the Labour opposition - campaigned openly against the vote. But several hundred Israeli doves called for recognition on the basis that only the creation of an independent Palestinian state can guarantee Israel’s own future in the region.

Future parliamentary votes in Ireland, Denmark and Finland, but especially in France – a fellow security council member – are likely to confirm the shift of public opinion across Europe. Most other governments, sooner or later, will likely follow suit. The goal is to preserve the viability of the two-state outcome to the Palestine-Israeli conflict when no other solution to the impasse is in sight.