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“Well, it looks like Rob Ford is on the comeback trail, and although John Tory still has the lead, it is narrowing. Olivia Chow, on the other hand, is suffering from a different kind of over-exposure,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement. “She was introduced to her public too long before she entered the race, and has already peaked. With her timing, the election should have been in June.”

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The 31% support number is a high mark for Ford in recent months, as the mayor had dropped to 20% during his stint to rehab earlier this spring. Significantly, the latest poll says only 50% of Torontonians want him to resign, compared to 63% in June, suggesting the mayor’s ceiling for support has risen. However, the mayor’s best path to victory remains a tight three-way vote without anti-Ford voters moving to the candidate most likely to defeat him.

Ford’s support was strongest with people ages 18 to 34 (37%), people with a high school education or less (43%) and those living in Scarborough (40%).

Chow, who led the race from the time she entered in March until recently, has now lost support in three straight Forum surveys. In June, she polled at 38% support, a full 10 percentage points over her nearest rival.

On Thursday, Chow’s campaign director John Laschinger wrote an email to supporters dismissing the poll as “summer polling.”

“Next week, the real campaign begins. We look forward to it, and look forward to underlining the progressive proposals Olivia has made. And look forward to being the campaign saying we need to invest right now, if we’re going to make progress now,” he wrote.

Results for the Forum poll are considered accurate +/-2, 19 times out of 20.

New Ford revelations

It wasn’t entirely a good news day for the Ford camp as new documents have shed light on why the mayor was sacked as coach of his beloved Don Bosco high school football team last year.

Internal documents from the Catholic school board list a litany of problems raised about Ford’s behaviour including; being intoxicated at an important practice, threatening a teacher, forcing players to roll in “goose scat” and ignoring requests for criminal background checks.