In Edinburgh speech Scotland first minister expected to confirm plan for second referendum before UK leaves EU

Nicola Sturgeon is expected to reveal more details about her plans for a fresh Scottish independence referendum in the next two years in a speech in Edinburgh on Monday.



The first minister tweeted about a planned appearance at Bute House, the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh.

Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) This morning, I'll make an important speech in Bute House ahead of the triggering of Article 50. Follow @ScotGovFM from 11.30am for updates.

Her speech is being linked by her officials to the final vote in the Commons later on Monday on Theresa May’s plans to trigger article 50 to leave the UK.

Speculation is growing that the prime minister could announce as early as Tuesday she will invoke article 50, to avoid clashing with a general election in the Netherlands on Wednesday and EU celebrations to mark the anniversary of the treaty of Rome in 1957.

Sturgeon’s aides are refusing to disclose the contents of her speech in advance but it is widely expected the first minister will confirm she plans to hold a second referendum on independence before the UK leaves the EU in 2019.

She is expected to repeat her challenge to May that a referendum can only be avoided if Scotland is given special access to the EU single market, substantially greater powers on policymaking and spending, and greater freedom to decide immigration policies.

May in effect rejected those demands earlier this month, telling the Scottish Tories in Glasgow that Holyrood could expect only limited extra powers after leaving the EU.

In a BBC interview last week, the first minister said it was common sense for Scotland to decide on independence before Brexit took place, and fuelled speculation it would take place later in 2018.



Asked whether she agreed with senior Scottish National party figures such as Alex Salmond that it ought to happen in the autumn, Sturgeon said: “Within that window, I guess, of when the outline of a UK deal becomes clear and the UK exiting the EU, I think would be commonsense time for Scotland to have that choice, if that is the road we choose to go down.”



With support for independence now on a knife edge, the first minister is poised to ask the UK government to give Holyrood the legal powers to stage a referendum under section 30 of the Scotland Act.

The Scottish government is also close to tabling legislation in Holyrood setting out the referendum process.

That will trigger a bitter row between the Scottish and UK government on the timing and wording of the referendum. Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, hinted earlier this month that the Tories wanted to delay a vote until after Brexit.

The latest opinion polls are producing conflicting signals about the Scottish electorate’s position. Sturgeon’s optimism that she could win a referendum have been boosted by two successive opinion polls in the past five days, from BMG and Ipsos Mori, showing the yes vote has grown from about 45% to 48% and 49% respectively, excluding don’t knows.

But Sturgeon faces a significant challenge persuading voters that a referendum should take place quickly. The BMG survey for the Herald, published on Monday, shows that only 39% wanted a referendum before Brexit, with 49% against and 13% unsure. Excluding don’t knows, that puts opposition to a vote in the next two years at 56%, again suggesting a majority of the population are reluctant to vote until they see what the terms of Brexit will be.

