by Aaron Schatz

The Football Outsiders DVOA ratings actually had quite a stable Week 6. The top ten teams in DVOA remained the same as in Week 5, although with some slight movement, and Denver and Seattle continue to come back to the pack just a little bit more each week. In the middle of the ratings, there were a couple of big moves, with Philadelphia up six spots to No. 15 and Arizona up seven spots to No. 17 despite a loss to San Francisco. The biggest movement of the week belongs to Minnesota, which plummeted from 17th to 27th after getting blown out by the Panthers.

Actually, the biggest movement of the week belongs to Washington -- specifically, to Washington's special teams rating. Washington was already 30th in special teams DVOA at -9.0% before Sunday night's game. I wrote in this week's ESPN Upset Watch that the return of injured kicker Kai Forbath might improve things for the Washington special teams. It didn't. Instead, Washington had a single-game special teams DVOA of -51.4%, making Sunday night one of the worst special-teams performances we've ever tracked. We estimate that Washington special teams were worth -16.1 points below average on Sunday night; that's not in the bottom ten, but it's close. Every single area of special teams had problems. Forbath missed a field goal, albeit a tough 49-yarder. His kickoffs were fine, but the coverage let Dwayne Harris return one 90 yards. The punt coverage was worse, letting Harris return a punt for a touchdown. On two of their own kickoff returns, Washington couldn't get the ball past the 20, while Josh Morgan averaged just 4.3 yards on four punt returns and Jerome Murphy got nothing on a fifth punt return.

With that one game, Washington's special teams rating for the year drops all the way down to -17.6% DVOA, which now ranks as the second-lowest special teams DVOA we've ever tracked through Week 6. The only team that was worse on special teams through Week 6 was the 2010 San Diego Chargers, they of the nine zillion blocked punts. The bottom five is rounded out by the 1996 Cardinals and both the 1999 and 2000 Bengals.

Speaking of the worst DVOA ratings ever...

BEST AND WORST DVOA EVER WATCH

Even after very hefty opponent adjustments, Denver still ended up with 20.9% DVOA for this week's win, and Jacksonville ended up with -27.3% DVOA. So the Jaguars still rank as the worst team in DVOA history through six weeks, and the Broncos are still in the all-time top ten.

BEST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 6 x BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 6 x WORST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 6 x WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 6 Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 2007 NE 65.3% x 1999 WAS 47.2% x 2013 JAC -66.0% x 2004 MIA -55.2% 1991 WAS 63.7% x 2013 DEN 46.7% x 1993 TB -61.2% x 2002 HOU -52.2% 1996 GB 59.5% x 2000 STL 44.8% x 1989 DAL -60.8% x 2013 JAC -51.3% 1999 STL 55.4% x 2007 NE 43.8% x 2005 SF -60.2% x 2010 CAR -51.2% 2009 NO 49.1% x 2002 KC 42.2% x 2000 CIN -58.2% x 1992 SEA -46.2% 2001 PHI 47.8% x 1998 DEN 41.6% x 2005 MIN -58.1% x 2005 SF -45.0% 1994 DAL 47.6% x 2007 IND 41.5% x 2008 KC -57.6% x 2005 MIN -44.6% 2013 DEN 46.6% x 2005 SD 37.6% x 2008 STL -57.3% x 1996 STL -42.7% 2007 IND 46.6% x 2005 SEA 37.2% x 1992 NE -56.6% x 2009 OAK -42.3% 1998 DEN 46.1% x 2009 NO 36.9% x 2009 DET -55.9% x 2008 KC -41.8% 1990 CHI 45.9% x 2008 NYG 36.3% x 2002 CIN -55.8% x 2010 ARI -41.3% 1992 PHI 45.2% x 1995 DAL 34.9% x 2006 OAK -55.2% x 1993 TB -41.2%

Jacksonville isn't the only winless team this year, of course. Let's go to the mailbag...

Stockton Bullitt: Michelle Beadle tweeted that her friend said the Giants are the best 0-6 team ever. I wanted to see if that if was actually true. However, I checked your site, PFF, PFR, and ESPN, and I could not find anyplace that shows the standings after a given week (i.e. what the standings were after week 6). I was wondering if you guys could tell me where I could find standings and DVOA by week and offer an answer to the question.

First of all, you can find standings and DVOA as of a given week for every year going back to 1989 in our Premium stats database. We've figured out DVOA as it would have looked if Football Outsiders existed in a given week. For example, for Week 6 of 1990, we figure out DVOA with opponent adjustments at 60 percent strength, only using the results of the first six weeks of 1990, while pretending I was actually a football fan as a high-school junior instead of the male version of Linda Cardellini's character from "Freaks and Geeks." Using this method, the 2013 Giants don't even come close to ranking as the best 0-6 team of the past 25 years. They don't even make the top dozen. This would be the end of the discussion... except not every winless team this season is currently 0-6.

It turns out Michelle Beadle's friend had the right idea, but the wrong team. The 2013 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the best 0-5 team in DVOA history. Their current -6.7% DVOA ranks them 23rd, ahead of four different teams that already have three wins. Here's a look at the Bucs and the other top 0-5 teams. Out of curiosity, I looked up how each of these teams finished and then what they did the following year.

BEST 0-5 TEAMS BY DVOA Year Team DVOA Final W-L Nxt Yr W-L 2013 TB -6.7% -- -- 2007 MIA -9.6% 1-15 11-5 1991 SD -10.5% 4-12 11-5 1995 NO -13.0% 7-9 3-13 1991 TB -21.2% 3-13 5-11 2006 DET -21.4% 3-13 7-9 1991 CIN -21.5% 3-13 5-11 1997 IND -21.6% 3-13 3-13 2001 DET -22.3% 2-14 3-13 2010 SF -22.3% 6-10 13-3 1995 CAR -24.5% 7-9 12-4 2003 SD -25.9% 4-12 12-4 2002 STL -26.6% 7-9 12-4

Most of these teams actually didn't turn things around too much in the last two-thirds of the season, which makes sense since they weren't above average to begin with. Tampa Bay isn't likely to turn things around either; they rank seventh in schedule so far but fourth in schedule remaining. However, it is interesting to see how many of these teams significantly turned things around the following season. Yes, these teams weren't all necessarily built the same, and there's a big performance gap between the Bucs and the 2002 Rams, 20 points worth of DVOA lower. Nonetheless, the Bucs are still going to have Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, Darrelle Revis, and Dashon Goldson next year. Could they be the Kansas City Chiefs of 2014?

Speaking of the Kansas City Chiefs of 2013, here's the equivalent table, the worst 6-0 teams by DVOA. For this table, I've added a listing of how each team finished in the playoffs.

WORST 6-0 TEAMS BY DVOA Year Team DVOA Final W-L Playoffs Nxt Yr W-L 2000 MIN 1.2% 11-5 Lost NFC Championship 5-11 2006 IND 9.2% 12-4 Won Super Bowl 13-3 1990 SF 20.8% 14-2 Lost NFC Championship 10-6 1992 MIA 21.3% 11-5 Lost AFC Championship 9-7 2003 MIN 22.0% 9-7 Missed Playoffs 8-8 2011 GB 22.0% 15-1 Lost Divisional Round 11-5 2000 STL 22.5% 10-6 Lost Wild Card Round 14-2 2008 TEN 24.4% 13-3 Lost Divisional Round 8-8 2013 KC 25.6% -- -- -- 2009 MIN 28.1% 12-4 Lost NFC Championship 6-10 1994 SD 29.0% 11-5 Lost Super Bowl 9-7 1998 MIN 31.4% 15-1 Lost NFC Championship 10-6 2009 DEN 34.7% 8-8 Missed Playoffs 4-12

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 6 are:

WR Josh Gordon, CLE (Limited Edition): Led all wide receivers in DYAR this week; seven catches, all for first downs, and 126 yards.

Led all wide receivers in DYAR this week; seven catches, all for first downs, and 126 yards. RG Larry Warford, DET: Lions RB gained 4.8 yards per carry up the middle; Matthew Stafford only sacked once for zero yards.

Lions RB gained 4.8 yards per carry up the middle; Matthew Stafford only sacked once for zero yards. DT Michael Brockers, STL: Seven tackles for either zero yards or a loss, including two sacks, four on runs, and one on a reception by Ben Tate.

Seven tackles for either zero yards or a loss, including two sacks, four on runs, and one on a reception by Ben Tate. DT Jason Hatcher, DAL: Two sacks, four hurries, and TFL on a run.

Two sacks, four hurries, and TFL on a run. CB Brandon Carr, DAL: Didn't allow a single completion in man coverage against Washington.

Other players we considered this week who didn't make the cut: Joseph Fauria, Eric Reid, and Da'Norris Searcy.

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All 2013 stat pages are now updated, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium database.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

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OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 60 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 19 percent of DAVE (27 percent for teams with only five games played).

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 46.6% 1 41.4% 1 6-0 46.7% 1 8.9% 23 8.8% 1 2 SEA 34.3% 2 31.6% 2 5-1 9.4% 10 -20.6% 2 4.2% 6 3 KC 25.6% 3 17.5% 5 6-0 -4.2% 18 -23.1% 1 6.8% 3 4 NO 19.5% 5 17.6% 4 5-1 15.5% 6 -2.1% 14 1.9% 14 5 IND 19.5% 4 14.8% 7 4-2 18.3% 5 0.5% 18 1.8% 15 6 CHI 17.4% 7 13.9% 8 4-2 12.6% 9 -4.2% 13 0.6% 19 7 GB 17.3% 6 19.1% 3 3-2 23.4% 3 9.4% 25 3.3% 10 8 CAR 16.4% 10 16.6% 6 2-3 3.6% 13 -13.8% 3 -1.0% 22 9 CIN 14.7% 9 13.1% 10 4-2 0.4% 15 -11.1% 6 3.2% 11 10 SF 12.2% 8 13.2% 9 4-2 3.9% 12 -7.4% 10 0.9% 17 11 DAL 11.9% 13 8.8% 12 3-3 13.0% 8 7.5% 21 6.5% 4 12 DET 9.1% 14 7.1% 13 4-2 8.3% 11 0.1% 17 0.8% 18 13 NE 8.8% 12 11.3% 11 5-1 -4.3% 20 -5.9% 12 7.2% 2 14 BUF 4.2% 11 0.3% 15 2-4 -0.5% 16 -7.5% 9 -2.9% 27 15 PHI 0.7% 21 0.4% 14 3-3 24.7% 2 16.0% 30 -7.9% 29 16 SD 0.3% 19 -0.9% 16 3-3 21.5% 4 20.0% 32 -1.1% 24 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 ARI -2.0% 24 -3.5% 20 3-3 -12.7% 24 -10.6% 7 0.1% 21 18 NYJ -2.7% 15 -3.3% 18 3-3 -19.3% 30 -11.4% 4 5.2% 5 19 ATL -3.6% 20 -2.3% 17 1-4 14.4% 7 18.4% 31 0.3% 20 20 TEN -6.2% 16 -8.2% 23 3-3 -4.3% 19 -5.9% 11 -7.8% 28 21 PIT -6.2% 26 -4.3% 21 1-4 -2.7% 17 1.9% 19 -1.6% 25 22 TB -6.7% 22 -6.3% 22 0-5 -19.2% 29 -11.3% 5 1.2% 16 23 BAL -7.4% 18 -3.3% 19 3-3 -19.9% 31 -9.0% 8 3.5% 9 24 CLE -10.9% 23 -10.2% 24 3-3 -14.8% 26 -1.6% 16 2.4% 12 25 MIA -12.4% 25 -12.0% 25 3-2 -4.4% 21 10.3% 28 2.2% 13 26 STL -15.1% 30 -15.6% 27 3-3 -10.5% 23 8.4% 22 3.9% 7 27 MIN -15.3% 17 -14.9% 26 1-4 -9.0% 22 9.8% 27 3.5% 8 28 OAK -21.3% 29 -20.3% 29 2-4 -14.2% 25 5.3% 20 -1.9% 26 29 HOU -26.6% 27 -20.7% 30 2-4 -17.9% 27 -2.1% 15 -10.8% 31 30 WAS -26.9% 28 -18.4% 28 1-4 0.5% 14 9.8% 26 -17.6% 32 31 NYG -37.0% 31 -29.5% 31 0-6 -18.3% 28 9.3% 24 -9.4% 30 32 JAC -66.0% 32 -57.4% 32 0-6 -51.3% 32 13.7% 29 -1.0% 23

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).