Argus Leader-KELO TV poll: GOP governor's race a toss-up between Kristi Noem and Marty Jackley

It's a toss-up.

A week ahead of the South Dakota Republican primary election, two gubernatorial hopefuls are neck-and-neck, according to a poll commissioned by the Argus Leader and KELO TV.

In a survey of 625 registered Republican voters likely to cast their ballots in the election, 45 percent said they would vote for Kristi Noem if the race were held today. Forty-four percent, meanwhile, said they'd vote for Marty Jackley.

Another 11 percent said they were undecided.

Jacksonville, Florida-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy polled voters by telephone between May 21 and May 23. The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.

The numbers illustrate what those closely watching the race have known for awhile: it's close.

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And with one week until the primary, candidates have a tight window to win over voters still on the fence or steal support from their competitor.

Both campaigns seemed keenly aware of the tight nature of the race.

In the days ahead of the primary, they took digs at one another in interviews with the Argus Leader and in television and radio ads that began airing over the weekend.

"Now we know why Congresswoman Noem launched her negative TV and radio attacks against Marty Jackley last week," Jason Glodt, Jackley's campaign manager, said in a statement. "The more people learn about both candidates, the higher our numbers rise."

Justin Brasell, Noem's campaign manager, said that voters in the next week will get a clear picture of what sets the candidates apart.

"Kristi Noem spent her life farming and ranching, served in the state Legislature, and won historic tax cuts alongside President Trump as a member of the U.S. House. That's a set of experiences her opponent, a government lawyer, doesn't have," Brasell said in a statement. "Those are the distinctions we'll see in these final days of the campaign."

The polls point to strengths and weaknesses that each candidate could harness or avoid in the week ahead.

Seeking an edge

As far as name recognition, Noem has the upper hand. Sixty-seven percent of those polled recognized her name and said they had a favorable opinion of her. Another 15 percent recognized Noem's name and had an unfavorable opinion of her.

Meanwhile, 59 percent of those polled said they had a favorable opinion of Jackley. And 13 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

Jackley saw an 11 percent advantage among voters in his native West river and a three percent split over Noem in the southeastern part of the state. But Noem picked up a 19-percent lead in support in her native northeast part of the state and a 14 percent lead in the Sioux Falls metro area.

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And voters polled tended to support the candidate of their gender. Forty-eight percent of Jackley's supporters were men, whereas 41 percent were women. Noem's supporters were exactly the opposite: 48 percent women and 41 percent men.

Those who graduated college supported Jackley at a higher rate than Noem.

Voters' perceptions could've changed in the last week as the candidates appeared in a televised debate and took swings at each other off the air.

The Trump card

Likely Republican voters in the state maintain strong support for the president, the poll found. And that points to both candidates' strategy to campaign on work they've done to back Trump's policies or win his support.

Seventy-two percent of likely Republican voters polled across the state said they have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 14 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of him. Seventeen percent of those polled said they had a neutral opinion of the president.

And those with strong feelings of support for Trump were more likely to voice support for Noem.

Follow Dana Ferguson on Twitter @bydanaferguson, call 605-370-2493 or email dferguson@argusleader.com