Rarely is an expansion season normal. But I don’t think it’s too bold to suggest Atlanta experienced some peculiar features that won’t recur in 2018. Namely, the team went from playing outdoors on grass on a smaller playing surface at Bobby Dodd Stadium to a deeper, wider turf field in the center of the Death Star of Mercedes Benz Stadium for the last stretch of the season. And perhaps more importantly, they played a lighter but more travel-intensive first half of the season followed by eight games in 24 days played almost entirely at home in the autumn season. The rolling xG chart shows a massive uptick in the trend once the team started playing in MBS. Lastly, no team avoids injuries completely, but injuries to designated players can make things murky. Josef Martinez scored 19 goals in 20 games which is a record-breaking pace, and probably not one we would expect is sustainable over a full 34 game season. As we pivot to looking forward to the 2018 season, all these factors make it difficult to predict the future. 2018 probably will not look like 2017. And that’s before we even consider some the important team changes.

Offseason Changes

Like I said, a reasonable person might try to consolidate on the inaugural season playoff birth and work around the edges to improve the team heading into 2018. Well, whether the result of outside forces or a focused strategy, Atlanta United have decidedly not done this.

Firstly, they have effectively swapped Yamil Asad for Ezequiel Barco on the left. Asad was a monster for Atlanta United in 2017, putting up 11 assists (on 5.6 xA) and 7 goals (on 4.5 xG). He completed four of eight through balls, and while defensive stats are tricky, his defensive work rate to press forward often as well as track back was exceedingly high. Asad led all wide midfielders in the following stats: tackle attempts, successful tackles, interceptions, and pass blocks, and he was second in clearances. He collected all of these defensive counting stats while Atlanta United led the league in possession – that is to say, if one were to possession-adjust these totals, they would only tower further over those of his peers. He also led wide midfielders in fouls drawn. Since his departure, it was revealed that the club offered him a contract in excess of $300K a year and repeatedly courted him throughout the offseason, but ultimately he did not accept the terms and his rights were traded to DC for $500K-$600K in allocation money over the next few seasons. “Replacing” him, although it appears the club was determined to roster both players, is Ezequiel Barco, an 18 year old phenom who broke the MLS transfer record and all that. Some say there is no ceiling for him. So far the hard evidence we have is that he’s been getting significant minutes in a leadership role on a good team and winning things with said team at such a young age. But I wouldn’t call him an analytics darling heading into the year. In limited preseason minutes, he’s shown great touch and a willingness to run and press, but the key question is if he and Greg Garza can recreate the symbiotic pairing that Asad and Garza had.

If you thought the turnover would stop at the attacking band, you were wrong. Also departing after a season is Carlos Carmona, the glue that held the central midfield together last year (sold to Colo Colo for a rumored $1.5M). Carmona did a bit of everything. He covered the field laterally to pick off opposing teams’ counter attacks (there were many), and he often initiated Atlanta’s high press, leading to turnovers and good opportunities (I recall him sabotaging several goal kicks). He also linked defense and attack, albeit quite conservatively. He is replaced by… well this is weird, but it’s either Darlington Nagbe, who’s arrived in Atlanta to much fanfare and a $1M-$1.6M fee, or it’s a player yet to be signed. I wrote a long stats-filled piece on the Nagbe signing here. By all accounts, Nagbe is going to be used in a central midfield role and not out wide, so while the timing of the transfers is a bit upside down, it makes sense to discuss him as a Carmona replacement, regardless of who else arrives from this point forward. He brings elite dribbling and passing ability (as discussed in that link above), and with that an ability to link defense and attack by breaking lines and eliminating defenders (this is the club’s hope at least). These are things Carmona did not do. The risk in my mind is that he won’t be able to replicate Carmona’s intuition for breaking up counters and leading the press. And if this is truly the tradeoff, was it worth it?

The last major change to the starting 11 is the Return to Hotspur of Anton Walkes, a versatile defender-type brought in on loan last year who ultimately won the starting right back spot over Tyrone Mears. He’s replaced by Franco Escobar of Newell’s, a similarly versatile defender who can play CB or RB. One imagines Martino is intimately familiar with this guy, and accordingly most see him as a low-risk upgrade to the position. I don’t have much further to add on this one, but here’s a little something from SoccerMetrics on his passing. As of writing this, he’s yet to suit up in preseason for the Five Stripes.

Positional Expectations