We are all aware of the dazzling and astute deductions made by our dear friend, Sherlock Holmes. As a dull light forces its way through a dirt covered windowpane, we are introduced through Watson’s dazzled eyes, to Holmes’ mind at work in an abandoned room of Lauriston Gardens. Empty except for an imitation marble fireplace and a dead man, contorted in a depiction of his agonising last moments. Standing aside and looking upon Holmes with a mixture of respect, curiosity, and sheer dumb-foundedness, Watson witnesses as the Great Detective traces around every inch of the mildew dotted walls and dust covered floor, and is at last able to give a full description of the murderer, from his height and boot size to his overly long fingernails. But as the years have passed and technology has pushed forward, is our dear friend able to keep up? Let us explore this question together, as we delve into some of Watson and Holmes’ adventures together, dissect some of the most perplexing cases that the foggy streets of London had to offer, and view under the microscope how some of his deductions hold up in this changing age, before the world went all awry.

Now, to go through each one of his deductions and inferences would be a difficult task without filling a book, so we shall only investigate a single example from his many adventures here.

Our example is taken from The Blue Carbuncle, whereupon one late December morning, a sharp chill has gripped the Victorian streets of London causing windowpane corners to be thick with the icy frost common on these winter days. Behind one of these windows however, a cosy fire can be found warming the lodgings of 221B Baker Street. As the fire crackles, the light warmth emanating from the fireplace illuminates a scattering of newspapers cast in flickering shadow, showing signs of being recently rifled through and then evidently discarded to no consequence. Within arm’s reach of this abandoned heap of papers lays a chez lounge that offers it seems, a great deal of comfort for its occupier, who at the moment is on the cusp of explaining something in deep thought to his colleague, as the latter, sat in an armchair by the fire is looking with interest towards an old hard felt hat he had just been indicated to by his companion.

“ I took the tattered object in my hands and turned it over rather ruefully. It was a very ordinary black hat of the usual round shape, hard and much the worse for wear. The lining had been of red silk, but was a good deal discoloured. There was no maker’s name; but, as Holmes had remarked, the initials “H. B.” were scrawled upon one side. It was pierced in the brim for a hat-securer, but the elastic was missing. For the rest, it was cracked, exceedingly dusty, and spotted in several places, although there seemed to have been some attempt to hide the discoloured patches by smearing them with ink.”

Here, we have been given nearly all the data needed to make the inferences that Holmes is able to make (with the minor additions brought up elsewhere in the text). While Watson is unable to determine anything he thinks as noteworthy, handing the hat back to Holmes, let’s first see if you can follow the reasoning behind each of his remarks in the following passage…

He picked it up and gazed at it in the peculiar introspective fashion which was characteristic of him. “It is perhaps less suggestive than it might have been,” he remarked, “and yet there are a few inferences which are very distinct, and a few others which represent at least a strong balance of probability. That the man was highly intellectual is of course obvious upon the face of it, and also that he was fairly well-to-do within the last three years, although he has now fallen upon evil days. He had foresight, but has less now than formerly, pointing to a moral retrogression, which, when taken with the decline of his fortunes, seems to indicate some evil influence, probably drink, at work upon him. This may account also for the obvious fact that his wife has ceased to love him.” “My dear Holmes!” “He has, however, retained some degree of self-respect,” he continued, disregarding my remonstrance. “He is a man who leads a sedentary life, goes out little, is out of training entirely, is middle-aged, has grizzled hair which he has had cut within the last few days, and which he anoints with lime-cream. These are the more patent facts which are to be deduced from his hat. Also, by the way, that it is extremely improbable that he has gas laid on in his house.”

How did you fair when comparing the two passages? Did you follow Holmes reasoning with any success? Let us see what Holmes has to say for how he got to his immense conclusions and analyse each one in turn…

“I have no doubt that I am very stupid, but I must confess that I am unable to follow you. For example, how did you deduce that this man was intellectual?” For answer Holmes clapped the hat upon his head. It came right over the forehead and settled upon the bridge of his nose. “It is a question of cubic capacity,” said he; “a man with so large a brain must have something in it.”

This is a topic that has been under great debate ever since it reached people ears. Does the size of a person’s head or brain really act as any indication towards their intelligence? Many scientists have argued both sides of this [1,2,3,4,5] but after over a century of confusion, it seems that by the 1990’s and early 2000’s they came to an agreement via the use of MRI imaging of people’s brains [6,7]. The extensive research has determined that Holmes’ statement does hold merit, but in regards to time, was a 19th century detective right to come to this conclusion?

In this time the question of cubic capacity was only a theory, and not a well-researched one. Holmes, it can easily be believed, would have been aware of this theory and following his remarks in the series cautioning of making bricks without clay, he would, or at least should, have known that this theory could not yet be trusted. In light of this it may be that Holmes was just ahead of his game, for it is hardly the first scientific discovery that has been predicted by the great detective [8]. Alternatively, he may have added this in an attempt to just impress Watson; as there was no crime related to this hat, he may have felt the childish urge to embellish his statements, as he has been caught doing before (such as the florid face of a murderer in a Study in Scarlet)[9], in a way to impress his friend whom it can be believed has not visited for some weeks over the winter period.

“The decline of his fortunes, then?”

“This hat is three years old. These flat brims curled at the edge came in then. It is a hat of the very best quality. Look at the band of ribbed silk and the excellent lining. If this man could afford to buy so expensive a hat three years ago, and has had no hat since, then he has assuredly gone down in the world.”

Fashion is a thing that is far too often overlooked. Trends come and go throughout the seasons and so for a Detective such as Holmes, it is evidently important to keep up. A modern-day comparison of this may arise with any item of clothing or accessory you can think of, for example if Holmes was to be presented with a pair of skinny jeans that are well-worn by countless washes, then it can be suggested that the owner is out of touch with modern mainstream trends, and may point to the decade they grew up in, and so on, in a way that reflects the above quote (skinny jeans became a popular trend in 2006 [10,11,12] but late 2010’s has notably seen an exchange in favour of palazzo trousers and drop-crotch trousers[13,14,15]).

One thing however that Holmes has not stated is the possibility of this item being a gift. Carrying on with the example of the skinny jeans, there raises fewer possibilities. Trousers (and obscurely sized hats), perhaps more than most items of clothing, are rarely gifted to people purely due to having to know the right size, something you can’t ask without giving away the gift, or without risk of insult, so they would have to be brought by either the wearer or someone close enough to know the size to get, such as a close family member or partner.

“Well, that is clear enough, certainly. But how about the foresight and the moral retrogression?”

Sherlock Holmes laughed. “Here is the foresight,” said he putting his finger upon the little disc and loop of the hat-securer. “They are never sold upon hats. If this man ordered one, it is a sign of a certain amount of foresight, since he went out of his way to take this precaution against the wind. But since we see that he has broken the elastic and has not troubled to replace it, it is obvious that he has less foresight now than formerly, which is a distinct proof of a weakening nature. On the other hand, he has endeavoured to conceal some of these stains upon the felt by daubing them with ink, which is a sign that he has not entirely lost his self-respect.” “Your reasoning is certainly plausible.”

Fashion is brought up again, in a different manner, if Holmes is to make it in the modern age, he not only has to know what is fashionable, but also what counts as a fashion faux par. Although what he says holds grounds for that time [16], in this age the only hats witnessed with securers on belong to infant children in general beach vicinity, accompanied usually with a plastic shovel and spade and someone taking an adorable picture the child will grow up to regret.

Moving on from Parisian blunders and beach pictures, Holmes states that a decrease in foresight is proof of a weakening nature, or as said earlier, moral retrograde. While there hasn’t been research giving a direct link between the two, it has been shown that illnesses such as anxiety and depression can be correlated with changes in moral upkeep [17], and such illnesses can be caused by problems rooted in drinking and gambling [18], though it should be noted these are not by any means the only causes [19], so whilst Holmes’ reasoning may have been correct with the link between foresight and morale, it was a bit of a stretch for him to claim that this was due to some influence such as drink, as I’m sure the loss of one’s fortune alone would be enough to cause such loss in morale.

“The further points, that he is middle-aged, that his hair is grizzled, that it has been recently cut, and that he uses lime-cream, are all to be gathered from a close examination of the lower part of the lining. The lens discloses a large number of hair-ends, clean cut by the scissors of the barber. They all appear to be adhesive, and there is a distinct odour of lime-cream. This dust, you will observe, is not the gritty, grey dust of the street but the fluffy brown dust of the house, showing that it has been hung up indoors most of the time, while the marks of moisture upon the inside are proof positive that the wearer perspired very freely, and could therefore, hardly be in the best of training.”

Anyone who has had their hair cut to a short length can verify that it finds itself everywhere, so it is not surprising that it gets into the hat’s lining, within the loose hair’s closest proximity, and the adhesiveness of the lime-cream will naturally transfer from his hair to his hat, likely bringing a few strands with it, and while the type of hat mentioned may not be applicable to the general public anymore, hats such as flat caps are (at least for the time being)[20].

It is also true that different types of dust have different properties, and so cling to fabrics differently[21], and the marks of moisture in Winter would suggest that it either had little to do with the weather (and the man therefore sweats a lot in any season), or that the hat hadn’t been rid of these marks despite treatments being available with the use of lemons or baking soda[22].

“But his wife—you said that she had ceased to love him.” “This hat has not been brushed for weeks. When I see you, my dear Watson, with a week’s accumulation of dust upon your hat, and when your wife allows you to go out in such a state, I shall fear that you also have been unfortunate enough to lose your wife’s affection.” “But he might be a bachelor.” “Nay, he was bringing home the goose as a peace-offering to his wife. Remember the card upon the bird’s leg.”

It should be stated that the card on the bird’s leg reads “For Mrs. Henry Baker”.

This statement to Watson is more interpretation than based on any scientific evidence, however Holmes has had many cases surrounding couples in and out of love, and the attentiveness of a loving partner, and what a partner may do to regain that affection if lost, can be seen throughout many newspapers, stories, and from our very own experiences in life[23]. It is therefore not difficult to conclude that what Holmes says has some level of merit, despite lack of conclusive proof.

“You have an answer to everything. But how on earth do you deduce that the gas is not laid on in his house?” “One tallow stain, or even two, might come by chance; but when I see no less than five, I think that there can be little doubt that the individual must be brought into frequent contact with burning tallow—walks upstairs at night probably with his hat in one hand and a guttering candle in the other. Anyhow, he never got tallow-stains from a gas-jet. Are you satisfied?” “Well, it is very ingenious,” said I, laughing; “but since, as you said just now, there has been no crime committed, and no harm done save the loss of a goose, all this seems to be rather a waste of energy.”

Of course, in this age most houses are lighted with electricity rather than gas, and modern use of a candle would most likely be in creating a certain atmosphere, however candles aren’t what they used to be. Tallow was very commonly used in the making of candle wax, and was composed of animal fats, supposedly giving off a rather unpleasant odour when burned[24]. However nowadays candles are made primarily from beeswax, gel wax, paraffin wax and so on[25], making it unlikely to leave the same smear on the fabric of a hat.

Conclusion

So, what does this all tell us then? It seems that Holmes is a bit out of touch with the times, what with fashion trends changing multiple times a decade along with ingredients of candles, and I would imagine a great deal of other things (although having lived over a century ago it isn’t much of a surprise!). It also seems that Holmes has a knack for showing off, but as Watson said, there has been no crime committed, and no harm done save the loss of a goose, so perhaps this was the reason for Holmes’ stretches of reasoning. Stretches aside, his method of analytical reasoning and scientific know-how can safely be said for the most part, to hold up to the test of time.

But this is just one example, so can our dear friend Sherlock Holmes smoke his pipe easy? Not without further study of his other deductions, and he’s made plenty of them! His knowledge on scientific principles, as well as new theories certainly help his case, aiding in his thought process and providing good evidence for his claims, but new theories aren’t always the right theories, and while he may have been lucky in the matter of cubic capacity, he could have been talking as much sense as a hatter!

Giving him the benefit of the doubt for his fondness of showing off to his friend, and until a further analysis of his other cases can be made, he may rest easy, curled up in his armchair by the warm fireplace, in the belief that his skill as a detective, while needing to be brushed up a little for the passing years, remains more or less intact.

References:

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[2] Estabrooks GH. The relation between cranial capacity, relative cranial capacity and intelligence in school children. Journal of Applied Psychology. 1928 Oct;12(5):524.

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[9] Doyle, Arthur Conan. A Study in Scarlet. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.

[10] Time. Skinny Jean [Internet] [cited 20th June 2019] http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2011254_2014381_2014372,00.html [Published 20th December 2006]

[11] USAToday. Skinny legs and all: Jeans get slender [Internet] [cited 20th June 2019] http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/life/lifestyle/2006-04-16-skinny-jeans_x.htm [Published 16th April 2006]

[12] Wikipedia. 2000’s in Fashion[Internet][cited 20th January 2019] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_in_fashion

[13] Confetissimo. 2018 [Internet] [cited 20th June 2019] https://confettissimo.com/en/fashion-style/what-to-wear/Palazzo-summer-trousers-topical.html

[14] Wikipedia. 2010’s in Fashion[Internet][cited 20th January 2019] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010s_in_fashion

[15] Independent. How the Skinny Jeans Trend Finally Died and Made Way For Body Conscious Denim [Internet] [cited 20th June 2019] https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/fashion/skinny-jeans-trend-denim-athleisure-body-conscious-khloe-kardashian-a7371451.html [Published 4th March 2017]

[16] Nunn, Joan. Fashion in Costume, 1200-2000. 2nd edition. A & C Black (Publishers) Ltd; Chicago: New Amsterdam Books, 2000.

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[18] Martin RJ, Usdan S, Cremeens J, Vail-Smith K. Disordered gambling and co-morbidity of psychiatric disorders among college students: An examination of problem drinking, anxiety and depression. Journal of Gambling Studies. 2014 Jun 1;30(2):321-33.

[19] Khalsa SR, McCarthy KS, Sharpless BA, Barrett MS, Barber JP. Beliefs about the causes of depression and treatment preferences. Journal of clinical psychology. 2011 Jun;67(6):539-49.

[20] Mail Online. Peaky Blinders sparks flat cap revival [Internet] [cited 27 June 2019]. Available from: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3614942/Peaky-Blinders-sparks-flat-cap-trend-sales-83.html

[21] World Health Organization. Hazard prevention and control in the work environment: airborne dust. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1999.

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[23] Chang JS. Agony-resolution pathways: How women perceive American men in Cosmopolitan’s agony (advice) column. The Journal of Men’s Studies. 2000 Jun;8(3):285-308.

[24] Henchman A. Tallow candles and meaty air in Bleak House. 19: Interdisciplinary Studies in the Long Nineteenth Century. 2017 Dec 1.

[25] Unique Candle Creations. Gel Candles vs Traditional Candles [Internet] [Cited 24th June 2019] https://uniquecandlecreations.com/pages/gel-candles-vs-traditional-candles