Consistently closing out stocks as early as possible is an important part of high-level Smash play. To this point, I’ve been trying to determine at what damage percentage players should be expecting, or planning, to take an opponent’s stock. Of course, this all depends on your character’s KO options and power, your opponent’s weight and recovery options, the selected stage, and some other factors. But still, a general measuring stick can help players assess whether they’re killing within a competitively reasonable damage percentage window.

Kill Data from MKleo, Nairo, and Zackray

To accomplish this, I performed a simple statistical analysis of how (attack/move), when (damage percentage), and where (on stage) MKleo, Nairo, and Zackray KO or otherwise close out stocks. For MKleo and Nairo, I gathered data from their runs at Frostbite 2019, where MKleo placed 2nd and Nairo placed 7th. I recorded Zackray’s data from Genesis 6 where he placed 5th. So these are numbers that achieved top 8 results at super major tournaments–from pro players who routinely place top 8 at big tournaments. I also chose these three players because they play characters with different KO power, play-styles, and edge guarding ability. This will provide a more well-rounded study for us.

I’ll present a summary of each player’s data and discuss 6 practical lessons from the numbers. If you’re interested in the nitty-gritty details of each kill, data tables appear toward the end of the article.

Just a few quick notes:

Kill % in this article refers to the percentage before the killing blow (this is more useful to us in planning KO’s), but keep in mind that launch strength is determined by the total percentage after an attack hits (it includes the damage inflicted by that attack).

For the sake of convenience, throughout the article I sometimes refer to all kills as KO’s, even gimp kills (hitting opponent offstage, leaving them too far to recover) and other stock losses.

“Edge guard” refers to a hit offstage or a 2-frame.

“At / near the ledge” refers to a hit at or near the ledge (an attack that hits within a dash distance from the ledge, on ground or in air).

“Elsewhere” is essentially center stage, whether on ground or in air.

MKleo’s Kill Data from FrostBite 2019

MKleo’s Frostbite run (mostly Ike and some Lucina) is remarkable because he consistently killed opponents at favorable percentages. Only twice he wasn’t able to KO until after 150%. But even then, those were barely over: 154% and 157%. This is at least somewhat due to Ike’s consistent KO power at or above 100%, but he also used Lucina to similar effect. Even more impressive, nearly half of MKleo’s kills happened when his opponents were under 100%. Of course, some of this is due to fighting lighter characters, but it’s impressive all the same. Here’s a pie chart showing a damage percentage breakdown of his 59 kills recorded from footage.

Clearly, MKleo is an exceptional stock closer, with over 75% of his kills coming before 125% damage. Here’s another pie chart, this time showing a breakdown of the location of MKleo’s KO attacks.

The data shows that MKleo gets about half of his kills during an edge guard or at/near the ledge. Ike has no problem KO’ing from center stage (Bair and Uair both do the trick) and has limited ability to edge guard, which helps partially explain the other half of his kills coming from Elsewhere.

His kills as Ike came mostly through up airs and back airs and much less often via a dash attack or forward tilt. MKleo’s Lucina kills almost exclusively with back air and forward smash.

Nairo’s Kill Data from FrostBite 2019

Nairo played Palutena at Frostbite. As you can see from the pie chart below, Nairo’s kills come at all percents. About 57% of his kills come at or below 125%. But about 19% of his KO’s occur above 150%, with his highest kill being 184%. About 24% of his kills come under 100%, which means that one out of every four stocks is an early stock. Here’s a breakdown of his 67 recorded KO’s.

Nairo’s Kills usually came at the ledge or during an edge guard. In fact, those account for about 69% of all his kills.

The data shows that Nairo excels at edge guarding and ledge trapping. Nairo’s Palutena KO’s mostly with back air near the ledge (sometimes setup by a down throw), an aerial during an edge guard, up air, and to a lesser extent, Explosive Flame.

Zackray’s Kill Data from Genesis 6

As the pie chart below shows, Zackray (playing Wolf) is a fairly efficient killer. His kill profile is fairly similar to Nairo in certain ways. About 22% of Zackray’s kills come before 100% damage, and 62% come at or under 125%. About 14% of KO’s occurred above 150%, which seems pretty good, but when Zackray struggled to kill, he really struggled: his opponents reached high damage percentages, with the two highest being 190% and 204%. A breakdown of his 74 recorded kills:

54% of Zackray’s KO’s came during an edge guard or near the ledge, each in equal proportions. No doubt, Wolf’s powerful smash attacks (particularly up smash) and back air contributed to the other kills on center stage. Most of his kills were via Bair, smash attacks (especially Usmash), and Ftilt (Ftilt 2-frame).

Here’s a visual breakdown of Zackray’s average kill percentage at each location.

6 Practical Lessons for Aspiring Smash Players

Alright, so that’s a whole lot of data, but what practical lessons can we learn from it all? If you want to play Smash at an elite level, these are vital takeaways for you:

Record your gameplay and keep a log of your kill percentages and locations. This will help you assess whether you’re taking stocks at competitively viable damage percentages. And if you’re not, you now have data to help you understand how to improve. Your goal should be to get most of your kills at or under 125%. You may not get the same percentage of KO’s under 125% as Zackray (62%), Nairo (57%), and MKleo (75%), but perhaps 50% of your KO’s under 125% is an initial goal you can work toward. Once your opponent is in the high 90’s% or at 100% (or higher, depending on your character’s kill power), start actively thinking about how to setup a KO instead of continuing the normal flow of a fight. This obviously requires you to know your fighter’s KO setups and how to execute them. Edge guarding, ledge trapping, and fighting near the ledge are the easiest and earliest ways to take a stock. A large portion of all three pros’ kills occurred in this manner: MKleo (51%), Zackray (54%), and Nairo (69%). #3 is yet another reason why stage control is immensely important in Smash. It not only limits your opponent’s options and puts you in an advantage state (the common reason everyone discusses stage control), but it also places your opponent closer to the ledge (and thus the blastzone). If you maintain stage control, you have a better chance of killing–and of killing earlier. This is the biggest practical lesson from the data.

If you maintain stage control, you have a better chance of killing–and of killing earlier. This is the biggest practical lesson from the data. You can succeed even if you sometimes struggle to take stocks, so don’t panic during a match if that happens. Keep your composure. Remember that even a portion of Nairo’s (19%) and Zackray’s (14%) kills came after 150%. But if you’re regularly struggling to kill until after 150%, you need to learn and implement your fighter’s optimal kill setups. Each fighter is different and some may have profiles that will (and should) vary from what is presented in this article. As you’ll see in the data tables below, MKleo’s Ike had an easy (and optimal) KO setup with Nair to Uair at center stage even near 100% damage, and Ike doesn’t have a great edge guarding game. So an Ike players’ edge guarding numbers will vary from the norm. The same is probably true for some other fighters, each with his or her nuanced abilities. Learn your fighter’s kill setups and optimize them. But all fighters, including Ike, benefit from stage control and trying to KO near the ledge.

Detailed Data Tables

For tight strings or combos, I included the percentages before the first attack and before the final blow (ex. 77-92%), although in the summaries above I only used the first number. “Where” refers to the location of the kill attack. “E” refers to an edge guard (offstage or 2-frame), “L” refers to at or near the ledge (an attack that hits within a dash distance from the edge, on ground or in air), and a blank entry refers to all other locations (more or less center stage, on ground or in air).

MKleo’s Data Table (Frostbite 2019)

MKleo Opponent Move

(How) Kill %

(When) Where Lucina Tweek (Wario) Uair 157% Fsmash 99% L Bair 122% Fsmash 127% Bair 73% E Fsmash 133% Fsmash 147% Ike Tweek (DK) Nair to Uair 140% Bair 130% L Nair to Uair 112% Ike Tweek (Wario) Charged

Fsmash 64% Nair to Uair 125% Uair 99% SD 91% E Ftilt 117% L Lucina Myran (Olimar) Bair 96% E Fsmash 87% L Bair 127% E Fsmash 78% L Fsmash 84% L Bair 88% L Fsmash 77% Fsmash 57% L Fsmash 72% L Ike Myran (Olimar) Ftilt 97% L Dair 73% E Bair 108% L Nair to Uair 72% Bair 108% Uair 90% Nair to Nair

to Uair 77-92% Bair 102% L Nair to Uair 85% DA 119% L Ike JeBB (Palutena) DA 115% L Uair 69% Bair 106% L Eruption 126% E SD 91% E Utilt 127% Bair 108% Bair 131% Eruption 118% E Ike Advo (D. Samus) Nair to Nair

to Uair 83-100% Utilt 154% Nair to Uair 98% Bair 107% L Nair to Uair 116% Nair to Uair 107% Ike Nairo (Palutena) Ftilt 113% L DA 88% L DA 138% L Eruption 122% E Nair to Bair 80% Bair 137% Ike Nairo (ZSS) Nair to Bair 92% L Nair to Uair 98% DA 116% L Wolf Nairo (Palutena) Utilt 139%

Nairo’s Data Table (Frostbite 2019)

Nairo Opponent Move

(How) Kill %

(When) Where Palutena MKleo (Ike) Bair 161% L Bair 136% L Bair 161% L Palutena MKleo (Wolf) DA 143% Dthrow to

Bair 97% L Fsmash 133% ZSS MKleo (Ike) Up B 151% Up B 109% Palutena Shoyo James

(Chrom) Bthrow 155% L Fsmash 115% Fair 104% E Uair 171% Uair 139% Bthrow 97% L EF (Side B) 114% L AR (Neut. B) 105% E Nair 154% E Nair 129% E EF to EF 111-126% E Counter to

Bair 77-90% E Bair 137% Palutena Shuton (Olimar) Nair 120% E Dthrow to

Bair 83% L Bthrow 169% L Bair 84% E Uair 112% E Bthrow 161% L EF 133% E Uair 65% E Fsmash 97% L Dair 88% E Bair 102% L Nair 150% E Palutena Nebula (Pac Man) Uair 125% Uair 113% Bair 109% L Palutena Nebula (PT) Bair 126% E Nair 83% E Uair 155% Palutena Ned (PT) EF 150% Uair 94% Dthrow to

Bair 113% L Dthrow to

Bair 166% SD 99% E Bair 135% L Uair 99% E Bair 107% L Usmash

forces SD 106% E Usmash 95% E Palutena Captain L (Pichu) Uair 75% Bair 131% L Bair 125% L Uair 119% E Bair 80% L Bthrow 114% L EF 128% Dthrow to

Uair 98% DA 116% L Palutena Captain L (Kirby) Dthrow to

Bair 107% Dair 27% E Dthrow to

Bair 117% Palutena Fatality (C.Falcon) EF 155% Nair 158% Nair 184% E Bair 119% L SD 111% E Bthrow 160% L

Zackray’s Data Table (Genesis 6)