YESTERDAY, the Bureau of Economics Analysis released its first estimate for economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013. It was pretty decent by the standards of America's recovery. Output expanded at a 3.2% annual pace. That was down from a 4.1% rate in the third quarter, but the third quarter figure was buoyed by transitory factors while fourth quarter growth was powered ahead by consumer demand, investment, and export growth. Hopes are high that momentum might be sustained into early 2014.

I am having trouble generating enthusiasm, however. Here is the bigger picture: