The BJP has suffered a crushing defeat in the Bihar Assembly election. There is no other way to describe Sunday's verdict. The BJP's electoral failure in Delhi was bad. In Bihar it is an unmitigated disaster.



The BJP could seek solace in the tired dictum that elections come and go but parties remain. Nor is any purpose served in rationalising the defeat in Bihar by arguing no party can win every election.



For good reason the BJP had heavily invested in winning this election. A victory for the BJP would have had a three-fold impact:



First, it would have strengthened Prime Minister Narendra Modi politically. Apart from fetching the party seats in the Rajya Sabha, where the NDA Government is hobbled by its lack of numbers, it would have helped reassert that the Prime Minister still remains toweringly popular.



Second, it would have reaffirmed Amit Shah's credentials as an astute election strategist and made him an unassailable party boss. His effort to enrol millions of primary members to make the BJP the world's largest party would not have seemed as a meaningless exercise.



Third, it would have set the tone for coming Assembly elections, especially in Assam and, later, in Uttar Pradesh. A cadre high on the stupendous victory of 2014 and in subsequent Assembly elections, barring in Delhi, needs to be constantly charged. The party needs to be seen as unbeatable.



Hence the Prime Minister led the battle of Bihar from the front, addressing as many as 30 rallies, aggressively campaigning against the incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Maha Gatbandhan. He directed much of his firepower at Lalu Prasad Yadav and his RJD.



In the event, all that effort went to waste. The people of Bihar have reposed their faith in Nitish Kumar while giving Lalu Prasad Yadav 80 of the 100 sears RJD contested, more than the JDU's 73 out of 100.



The BJP may have got a higher vote share of 24.8 per cent, compared to the RJD's 18.5 per cent and the RJD's 16.7 per cent. It has also got more votes than previously. But these are at best footnotes of this election's outcome.



At the end of the day, people have voted their caste, kith and community. They have rejected the development agenda proffered by Narendra Modi, electing to stay with the unimpressive track record of Nitish Kumar and resurrecting the spectre of the Jungle Raj of the Lalu Years.



They have glossed over corruption though much is made of it by all and sundry. Or else a convicted criminal held guilty of mammoth corruption and disqualified from contesting elections would not have been able to emerge as the power behind the throne.



Putting it bluntly, caste rules the roost in Bihar. Whoever can stitch up a critical mass of caste support and couple it with the State's Muslim vote can romp home in a bipolar contest. In 2014 BJP succeeded despite the odds stacked against it on the caste front because JDU and RJD contested separately.



But that does not explain why the BJP's allies -- LJP, RLSP and HAM -- stumbled and fell, failing to win the support of the Paswan, Koeri and Mahadalit voters, leave alone transfer them to BJP. Nor does it explain why the BJP witnessed the desertion of forward caste voters or urban areas rejecting the party.



So, what are the key takeaways from this poll? Here is a quick list.



A stridently negative campaign, including personal attacks, does not deliver votes when there is no particular angst against the incumbent Chief Minister. If 'bad naseeb' generated sympathy and support for Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, 'DNA' not only did that for Nitish Kumar but also served to create an umbrella Bihari coalition. Nitish Kumar turned it further to his advantage with his "Bihari versus Bahari" slogan.



Second, Narendra Modi's development narrative is losing traction. One-and-a-half years after storming to power with the slogan of "Achche Din", Modi Sarkar is yet to show visible delivery. Poor expectation management has made impatient voters reluctant to wait any longer. Worse, the Government has no plausible explanation as to why it has failed so miserably in holding the food price line. Dal is an example. Citing CPI statistics does not cut ice with voters who are yet to experience deflation.



Third, equally inexplicable is why Modi Sarkar is still dragging its feet on kickstarting the investment cycle through big ticket public spending on visible infrastructure projects that can rapidly generate jobs and revive the core sector's growth. Make in India is fine, but it's tangential to voter interest unless jobs are on offer. It would be instructive to inquire as to why Jan Dhan Yojana, a flagship scheme, has not excited popular imagination.



Fourth, 'Packages' should be well thought through. Packaging existing or assured payouts as a 'special package' is self-defeating. And, making an exhibition and a spectacle of announcing the package, as Narendra Modi did, likely displeases voters at large, more so when they are repeatedly told, as they were by Nitish Kumar, that this is akin to an auctioneer putting the dignity of a State under the hammer. If 'Gujarati asmita' can help defeat the Congress in Gujarat, so can 'Bihari gaurav' help defeat the BJP in Bihar.



Fifth, Narendra Modi's own popularity remains sky high but his famous ability to connect with the masses has begun to flag. Yes, there were massive crowds at his rallies. But on polling day those crowds voted for others. We can only assume Narendra Modi was unable to convince them to vote BJP. Why is it so? Is he facing a perception problem? Is the charge that he is more interested in his foreign travels and in collecting accolades abroad than in minding affairs at home beginning to stick? Is 'Mann ki Baat' more hyped than real in its impact? Is the messenger still loved but his message increasingly ignored?



As I said, this is a quick brief list. The BJP would do well to look into these and other issues that could possibly explain Sunday's major setback for the party, more so for Narendra Modi and his governance agenda. Pretending there has been no setback is plain silly, though flatterers and chatterers may yet convince the BJP leadership that Bihar was not a debilitating, dispiriting rout, and that there's nothing to worry.



And therein lies the reason why Modi Sarkar is now being seen, even by its ardent supporters, as dangerously close to running the risk of losing the plot.







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