The latest polls show strong support for Proposition 19, which could bode well for Democrats. California Dems bet on bong war

Forget the billion-dollar budget hole and layoff threats — the big debate in California right now is whether a bong war over legalizing pot could help boost Gov. Moonbeam back into office.

Seizing on new independent polling data, proponents of Proposition 19 — the Golden State ballot measure that would make possessing and growing marijuana legal — argue the measure is going to drive younger-voter turnout in such a way that it will benefit the Democrats statewide, from gubernatorial retread Jerry Brown to Sen. Barbara Boxer.


"It literally is the thumb on the scale that has been generally missed by the polling models out there, and it is going to have an impact not only on the initiative but everything else on the ballot including the candidates," said Dan Newman, consultant for the “Yes on 19” campaign.

"The community has been very active and engaged," he added, suggesting there's been "anecdotal and quantifiable evidence" of voters being spurred on by the issue.

"There's an energy and enthusiasm that is literally unprecedented in an initiative campaign," he said.

While the state Democratic Party is neutral on the ballot measure and its standard-bearer and two U.S. senators are all opposed, Chairman John Burton gave a one-word answer to the San Francisco Chronicle back in April when asked at the party’s convention what will bring out young, first-time Barack Obama voters again: “pot.”

The liberal website Firedoglake has teamed up with Students for Sensible Drug Policy to form the “Just Say Now” campaign aimed at turning out college kids. Two independent pollsters say they’re seeing evidence of what Rolling Stone magazine dubbed the “burnout turnout” effect in recent surveys.

"In most states, we're finding the under-30 crowd at about 6 percent. In California, we found it almost twice that," said Tom Jensen, head of Public Policy Polling. "And you know, I don't think young voters in California are more motivated than in most states because they're really excited about going to vote for Jerry Brown. And we do see overwhelming support among the younger voters for the marijuana initiative."

The latest polls show the race between Brown and Republican Meg Whitman as tight, as is the contest between Boxer and GOP nominee Carly Fiorina, although both Democrats have been opening slim leads.

But in both the PPP poll released Sept. 22, and a recent Field Poll, Proposition 19 is leading solidly.

The PPP survey had it at 47 percent saying they'll vote yes, 38 percent saying no, and 14 percent undecided. Field, released last week, had support at 49 percent and opposition at 42 percent.

But that survey also found that young voters are the biggest proponents of the measure, with the under-40 crowd supporting it 59 percent to 33 percent.

"Those same young voters are fueling much of the lead for Jerry Brown in the governor's race and Barbara Boxer in the Senate — if Brown and Boxer win they may have the marijuana initiative to thank for driving turnout from folks who would otherwise have been drop-off voters in a midterm," Jensen wrote on PPP's website when the poll was released.

And Field found that a massive 84 percent were aware of the pro-dope proposition, far more than knew anything about Proposition 23, aimed at undoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's climate change measures, and Prop. 25, which would change the way lawmakers vote on the state budget.

“It would help the Democrats, Boxer especially,” said Mark DiCamillo, head of the Field Poll, who stressed that he had yet to test specifically whether there was a correlation between possible increased turnout and Proposition 19 proponents. He said the turnout models are always tricky, especially this year.

He also argued it would help Boxer more than, say, Brown, who served two terms as governor from 1975 through 1983 and most younger voters don't remember.

Still, if it holds up through Election Day, it's an interesting dynamic for a measure for which neither its boosters nor opponents have mustered up much cash.

Opponents of the measure say the Democrats are, well, blowing smoke in a year in which their prospects are fairly gloomy. They point to a recent Reuters survey that showed the measure losing (one which proponents claim is an outlier).

"I certainly recognize the difficult position the Democrats are in, having a deeply demotivated base, and so it doesn't surprise me they would turn to the Hail Mary Jane strategy to get their voters excited," said Ron Nehring, chairman of the California Republican Party, who by coincidence was driving to Weed, Calif., as he spoke to POLITICO by phone.

Wayne Johnson, a California-based consultant working on the anti-Prop. 19 effort, said, “The intensity is much higher on the ‘no’ side than the ‘yes’ side.” And he said there is no evidence that there's real voter-turnout efforts being made.

Brown, currently the attorney general, has made clear he's against the measure, which runs counter to federal law against marijuana even if it passes. So have Boxer and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who co-chairs the anti-legal-pot initiative and who provides a strong validation for the "no" votes.

And the Obama administration has said it’s against it, although the Department of Justice has said it would be premature to speculate on whether they'd sue to undo it.

Democrats are also mindful of not becoming branded as the pro-weed party. “I think there was a concern that the candidates who are running didn't want to have that as a side issue, a diversionary issue," Burton, the Democratic Party chairman, told POLITICO as to why the party voted to remain neutral.

Still, he added that there’s reason to believe that there’s interest in it among younger voters: "The way the polls show [it], the older people that were probably smoking dope in the '60s and '70s would be inclined not to vote for it. Young people kind of view [it as] hypocritical that their parents can get blotto on whiskey, but they cant sample marijuana."

There has been massive free media over the issue, with organized campaigns on both sides, although the “pro” campaign has far outraised the “con” side. The attention has supplanted a lack of TV time for an initiative that hasn’t raised anywhere near the type of cash on either side that, say, the climate-change Prop. 23 has.

The measure is being watched nationally, with some Democratic strategists reportedly looking at it if it passes as a motivator and wedge issue to put on the ballot in some states during the 2012 elections, a move many political watchers say would be fraught with peril. However, proponents of the measure may force the issue, with some saying they’ll resurrect it in California in 2012 if it fails to pass this time around.

Tim Rosales, one of the lead consultants on the Vote No on Prop. 19 campaign, said that they’ve seen no evidence suggesting that younger voters are going to be swayed to come vote heavily in favor of legalized pot.

"I think people are motivated to vote for a number of different reasons," he said. "If the youth do come out, I don't know that they're going to be more inclined to vote yes on Prop. 19 than on Prop. 91."

He added, "Certainly it polls better with younger voters but there's still a number of folks who oppose it. The Obama administration has to be looking at this very carefully and very nervously."