Operation Yellowhammer: Low income groups hit hardest by no-deal Brexit A cut in the availability of food and increase in prices, will hit ‘vulnerable groups’, the dossier says

A no-deal Brexit will disproportionately affect low-income groups because a higher proportion of their money goes on food and fuel, according to the leaked Yellowhammer document.

Price rises are expected in supermarkets as supplies of food – particularly fresh fruit and vegetables imported from the continent – are put under pressure, caused by delays at borders. This decrease in availability of food, and increase in prices, will hit “vulnerable groups”, the dossier says.

Medical supplies are also under threat because of expected delays at Channel crossings. The document says that while demand for energy will be met, with no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors, there will “probably be marked price rises for electricity customers with associated wider economic and political effects”.

The i politics newsletter cut through the noise Email address is invalid Email address is invalid Thank you for subscribing! Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription.

The Government insists that under Boris Johnson’s new administration the “tempo” for no-deal planning has significantly increased. The document sets out worst-case scenarios rather than the base assumptions, ministers say.

Fuel supply risks

Lower income groups could also be disproportionately affected by rising costs in social care, because, the document warns, an increase in inflation will cause staff and supply costs to rise, leading to the closure of smaller providers in an already fragile sector.

Delays at borders could “affect fuel distribution”, disrupting supplies and pushing up the price of petrol and diesel, with the fuel supply in London and south-east England under greatest threat.

Supply of fuel could also be imperilled by petrol import tariffs, set by the Government at 0 per cent, potentially leading to the closure of two oil refineries and a possible 2,000 job losses.

The Office for National Statistics calculates that the poorest fifth of households spend 14 per cent of their earnings on food, compared with 10.5 per cent for the national average, while around 2.6 million households currently live in fuel poverty, meaning they cannot afford to keep their home warm enough.

A no-deal Brexit is also likely to increase food bank use. Garry Lemon, director of policy, external affairs and research at the Trussell Trust, told The Sunday Times: “Any form of Brexit risks increasing the cost of food and therefore increases the need for food banks.”