Josh Cooper

jcooper2@tennessean.com

Predators defenseman Shea Weber was named a finalist for the Norris Trophy.

Weber's huge salary makes him the center of trade speculation.

David Poile often answers the question with a shake of the head and a deep breath.

When the Predators general manager is asked whether he will trade captain Shea Weber, he says no. The scene played out yet again a couple of weeks ago.

The idea can't be dismissed automatically, however. While the 28-year-old Weber is arguably the best player the Predators ever have developed and is one of the top defensemen of his generation, he makes $14 million per season — $13 million of which must be paid in a lump sum.

It's a lot of money for a smaller-market NHL franchise such as Nashville, but Weber's overall value to the Predators remains extraordinary.

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For almost 27 minutes in every game — Weber's average time on the ice this season was 26:54 –— they know they are safe on the defensive end of the rink. He brings a lot on the offensive end as well, leading the team in points this season with 56.

On Monday, he was named a finalist for the Norris Trophy as the NHL's best all-around defenseman for the third time. His decline is maybe five or six years away, as blueliners tend to drop off later in their careers than forwards.

However, with Poile saying the Predators are in a "rebuild on the fly" after missing the playoffs for the second year in a row, and with Weber owed $42 million worth of bonus payments over the next four seasons, is the time right to trade him? Not until 2018-19 does his contract go down to a more manageable $6 million per year with no bonuses.

From a hockey perspective, it might make more sense than ever to trade Weber. But from a business perspective, it's not such an easy call.

"It is often in the best interest of mid-market teams to trade one star player for many younger players of equal value on the ice. This strategy reduces payroll and diversifies risk," Vanderbilt University sports economics professor John Vrooman said. "There is a trade package that would make sense for the Preds as they reload, but the package must fill Weber's gigantic skates on the blueline and provide offense and youth. This is probably not going to happen."

'Pay off down the road'

The Predators need young, NHL-ready forwards. The franchise has long been known for developing strong defensemen, but it has failed with scorers. David Legwand's 63 points in 2006-07 is still the high mark for a player the Predators developed.

Beyond Weber is a group of defensemen that could remain with the Predators for a decade — Seth Jones, Michael Del Zotto, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm will all be 24 or younger next season. Jones is seen as a potential franchise defenseman, someone who could handle Weber's role after the latter goes into decline.

So why wouldn't the Predators deal their strongest chip to add desperately needed offense?

Weber's contract doesn't contain a no-trade clause, which means the Predators can deal him to any team. The moribund Edmonton Oilers, for instance, have a lot of skilled, NHL-ready forwards, but they lack a blueliner.

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"David Poile's secure tenure allows him to make a deal that would pay off down the road," said Mark Spector of broadcast outlet Sportsnet. "He could trade a nearly 29-year-old defenseman for a 24-year-old scoring winger, an up-and-coming defenseman and a first-round draft pick. Frankly, a Weber trade is exactly what that organization needs — an influx of top-end youth and skill."

The Philadelphia Flyers, who signed Weber to a mega-offer sheet in 2012 that the Predators matched, also have a solid group of young, NHL-ready forwards who could fit with Nashville.

But none of the forwards with those teams are superstars. None are currently on a Hall of Fame career trajectory like Weber.

And rarely does a team get equal value when it trades a superstar. The Oilers, for instance, dealt away their 1980s team that won five Stanley Cups. None of those moves kept the Oilers competitive.

"I understand that trading Weber might net the Predators a quality return featuring multiple players, prospects and picks, but what are the odds that any of them turn into the type of player Weber already is?" NHL.com's Dan Rosen said. "He's one of, if not the best, defenseman in the NHL. He's the player you build around; he's not the player you trade to rebuild."

'Still too valuable in the long run'

The Predators threw a party in front of Bridgestone Arena on July 24, 2012, just after matching the offer sheet for Weber. Having lost all-star defenseman Ryan Suter, a free agent, to the Wild earlier in the offseason, they needed to celebrate some good news.

They had seen other teams poach their players — Dan Hamhuis to Vancouver, Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen to Philadelphia, Paul Kariya to St. Louis — so the decision to match Philadelphia's mammoth offer was a victory for a smaller-market franchises. And with the Predators needing to fill seats, the move also spoke volumes to the fan base.

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Fast forward to this season. Despite missing the playoffs for the second straight year, Bridgestone Arena was at 97 percent capacity, according to ESPN.com's attendance tracker. The 16,600 average attendance was also the third best in franchise history. There is no doubt that Weber's presence helped.

"In order to survive and make it to the Stanley Cup playoffs on a consistent basis, mid-market clubs like the Preds must stay on the fine edge of efficiency," said Vrooman, the Vanderbilt professor. "Forget the short run … Shea Weber is still too valuable in the long run … to trade any time soon."

'One of the best defensemen on the planet'

If the Predators are even thinking about trading Weber, they don't have to make a decision until late June. He's due his $13 million payment on July 1.

One could say his massive salary destroys the Predators' numerical structure, preventing them from acquiring free agents. But under the current collective-bargaining agreement, his salary cap hit of $7.857 million is in line with what elite players now command. Anaheim's Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, for instance, are both more than $8 million in salary-cap hit.

Also, if the Predators are indeed looking to go younger, and cheaper, with their roster, Weber's salary can help the team in different ways — such as hitting the required salary-cap floor.

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"The way I see it, the salary cap is going to be about $71 million next season, and the Predators currently have close to $51 million committed for 2014-15. That means they'll have to spend another $5 million just to get up to the floor, even with Weber on their payroll," said Ken Campbell of The Hockey News. "So with Weber, the Predators get a hefty salary that helps them get up to the floor and it just happens to be attached to one of the best defensemen on the planet."

And while the Predators do need more offense, Weber does provide a special skill — his 106 mph slap shot, one of the most feared and potent in the NHL — that might lead to more points than fans realize. He was just a minus-2 this season for a team with a minus-19 goal differential.

"The Predators would have to get very lucky to get another face of the franchise in a trade for Weber," NHL.com's Rosen said. "They made him the most important player in franchise history when they matched the contract. Let him be that and build around him."

NORRIS TROPHY FINALISTS

Finalists for the Norris Trophy, which goes to the NHL's top all-around defenseman each season as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers' Association. The winner will be announced on June 24 at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas:

SHEA WEBER

• Team: Predators

• Numbers: 56 points (23 goals, 33 assists), 26:54 average ice time.

• Pros: He was a tower of strength, leading a non-playoff team in scoring and putting up the best numbers of his career. The Predators were a minus-19 in goal differential, but he finished as just a minus-2.

• Cons: Voters might have looked at his plus/minus and knocked him down in their ballots. The fact that the Predators missed the playoffs didn't help him.

DUNCAN KEITH

• Team: Blackhawks

• Numbers: 61 points (6 goals, 55 assists), plus-22 rating.

• Pros: The slick skater, who won the Norris in 2010, led blueliners in assists. He was the odds-on favorite throughout the season, which carries stock with voters at the end of the season.

• Cons: His play fell off slightly after the Olympic break, but probably not enough to dent his status as the favorite.

ZDENO CHARA

• Team: Bruins

• Numbers: 40 points (17 goals, 23 assists), plus-25 rating

• Pros: He had the highest plus-minus of the finalists, is always one of the top two-way defenders and might be the most difficult matchup in the NHL thanks to his 6-foot-9 frame.

• Cons: His offensive totals were the lowest among the finalists, but traditionally it always seems to play out of Chara's favor.

Reach Josh Cooper at 615-726-8917 and on Twitter @joshuacooper.