by Aaron Schatz

Indianapolis knocked Denver out of the ranks of the unbeaten on Sunday night, but not out of the top spot in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. The Colts' big win did move them up from fifth to third, where they now trail only the Broncos and Seahawks and have passed the NFL's last remaining unbeaten team, the Kansas City Chiefs.

A narrow victory over Houston (currently ranked a miserable 30th in DVOA) drops Kansas City's DVOA rating from 25.6% to 23.2%. Beware of power rankings which simply regurgitate a list in order of wins and losses: Kansas City has not been the best team in the NFL in 2013. The most important issue is that the Chiefs have played the league's easiest schedule, even if we remove all games that any teams have played against Jacksonville. It doesn't get much harder the next two weeks, with games against Cleveland (25th) and Buffalo (17th), both of which are now playing with backup quarterbacks. However, most of Kansas City's division schedule is set up after their bye in Week 10, which means both games against the Broncos and both games against the Chargers (13th in DVOA). They also have a game with Indianapolis in Week 16 which could be hugely important for playoff seeding.

However, while the Chiefs may not be the best team in the league, they may be the most consistent. They rank first in variance, including third on offense and seventh on defense.

Kansas City's ranking is one of the few places where the current DVOA ratings deviate significantly from win-loss records. Another team that stands out is Carolina, which has climbed to sixth overall at 3-3. However, with the exception of the Panthers, every team with a winning record is better than every team at .500 or worse except for two teams right in the middle of the ratings: Atlanta 15th at 2-4 and the Jets 16th at 4-3.

BEST AND WORST DVOA EVER WATCH

Denver's loss knocks them out of the top ten teams in DVOA history. Jacksonville is still plumbing the depths of the historical DVOA ratings, but the Jaguars no longer rank as the worst team ever because the 2005 San Francisco 49ers had one of the worst games of all-time in Week 7, losing to Washington 52-17. Yes, the quarterback of that worst team ever was in fact the same man who currently quarterbacks the last undefeated team of 2013.

Meanwhile, the current Washington team had another lousy week on special teams. Washington had 26.6 net yards per punt, with one of those returned for a touchdown by Devin Hester, and just one touchback on eight kickoffs, which just won't cut it with the kickoff line at the 35.

BEST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 7 x BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 7 x WORST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 7 x WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 7 x WORST SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 7 Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 2007 NE 69.1% x 2007 NE 48.0% x 2005 SF -75.5% x 2005 SF -49.7% x 2010 SD -21.1% 1991 WAS 61.8% x 1999 WAS 45.2% x 2013 JAC -63.4% x 1992 SEA -47.7% x 2013 WAS -18.3% 1996 GB 54.0% x 2000 STL 44.0% x 2008 KC -60.4% x 2013 JAC -44.9% x 2008 MIN -17.6% 1994 DAL 51.8% x 2013 DEN 41.9% x 2000 CIN -58.4% x 2004 MIA -43.5% x 1997 STL -16.2% 1999 STL 50.7% x 1998 DEN 41.2% x 1993 TB -58.0% x 2002 HOU -42.6% x 1999 CIN -15.1% 2007 IND 47.6% x 2002 KC 39.2% x 2009 DET -57.4% x 2010 CAR -42.0% x 1996 ARI -14.7% 1990 CHI 46.8% x 2007 IND 36.9% x 2002 CIN -56.1% x 1996 STL -42.0% x 2000 CIN -14.5% 1998 DEN 45.0% x 1992 SF 35.3% x 1991 IND -54.5% x 1991 NE -40.4% x 1995 PHI -14.0% 1997 DEN 43.8% x 1995 DAL 34.5% x 2005 HOU -52.5% x 1993 TB -40.3% x 2006 ARI -12.9% 1991 NO 42.0% x 1997 DEN 33.7% x 1996 STL -52.5% x 2009 OAK -40.1% x 1994 HOIL -12.8% 2013 DEN 40.9% x 2004 IND 32.7% x 2009 OAK -51.9% x 1991 PHI -39.5% x 2005 PHI -12.8% 1992 PHI 40.8% x 2011 NE 32.6% x 1999 CLE -51.4% x 2007 SF -39.1% x 1990 DEN -12.5%

Apologies for the shortened commentary this week; my hard drive died on Thursday and I've been limping along on my wife's computer with limited access to files until I can get everything fixed/replaced and then restore my backup.

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 7 are:

FB Stanley Havili, IND: TD reception and forced fumble on special teams.

TD reception and forced fumble on special teams. WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ: 97 yards and a touchdown with six third-down conversions.

97 yards and a touchdown with six third-down conversions. LT Trent Williams, WAS: Washington had 5.5 yards on left-side runs (not including scrambles) and allowed only one sack.

Washington had 5.5 yards on left-side runs (not including scrambles) and allowed only one sack. LB Lavonte David, TB: Six defeats including three TFL.

Six defeats including three TFL. LB Lawrence Timmons, PIT: 13 tackles for an average gain of just 3.2 yards.

Other players we considered this week who didn't make the cut: Aaron Rodgers, Mike Brown, Clint Boling, Robert Mathis, Sean Lee, Vontae Davis, Earl Thomas, and Mike Mitchell.

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All 2013 stat pages are now updated or will be updated in the next few minutes, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium database.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through seven weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

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OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 70 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up nine percent of DAVE (19 percent for teams with only six games played).

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 40.9% 1 38.7% 1 6-1 41.9% 1 7.9% 26 6.8% 3 2 SEA 34.4% 2 32.7% 2 6-1 8.3% 12 -22.3% 1 3.8% 10 3 IND 26.2% 5 23.3% 3 5-2 17.0% 5 -4.6% 11 4.6% 8 4 KC 23.2% 3 19.6% 6 7-0 -3.3% 18 -19.3% 2 7.3% 2 5 GB 22.5% 7 22.9% 4 4-2 26.2% 2 1.6% 18 -2.1% 26 6 CAR 20.4% 8 19.6% 5 3-3 6.3% 14 -14.3% 3 -0.2% 20 7 NO 19.0% 4 16.9% 7 5-1 15.5% 6 -1.9% 16 1.7% 14 8 CHI 17.7% 6 16.1% 9 4-3 14.5% 7 1.0% 17 4.2% 9 9 DAL 16.2% 11 14.4% 10 4-3 7.1% 13 -2.8% 14 6.3% 4 10 SF 16.1% 10 16.6% 8 5-2 10.1% 9 -4.5% 12 1.5% 15 11 CIN 13.2% 9 12.5% 11 5-2 2.6% 15 -7.6% 7 3.0% 12 12 NE 9.7% 13 10.8% 12 5-2 -4.7% 19 -7.1% 8 7.3% 1 13 SD 3.2% 16 2.5% 13 4-3 25.8% 3 21.6% 32 -1.0% 24 14 DET 2.6% 12 2.2% 14 4-3 9.8% 10 6.3% 24 -0.9% 23 15 ATL 0.1% 19 0.4% 15 2-4 17.3% 4 16.2% 30 -0.9% 22 16 NYJ -0.6% 18 -1.3% 16 4-3 -18.4% 30 -12.8% 4 5.1% 7 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 BUF -1.0% 14 -2.3% 17 3-4 -7.4% 21 -9.4% 6 -3.0% 27 18 PIT -3.7% 21 -2.9% 18 2-4 -0.3% 16 4.5% 22 1.2% 16 19 ARI -4.2% 17 -4.3% 19 3-4 -15.1% 23 -10.0% 5 0.9% 19 20 PHI -4.6% 15 -4.4% 20 3-4 14.2% 8 12.1% 29 -6.7% 28 21 TEN -7.7% 20 -8.5% 22 3-4 -2.2% 17 -2.4% 15 -7.9% 29 22 MIA -8.8% 25 -9.2% 23 3-3 -6.0% 20 4.0% 20 1.1% 17 23 BAL -9.1% 23 -7.1% 21 3-4 -15.5% 25 -4.6% 10 1.7% 13 24 TB -12.9% 22 -11.6% 24 0-6 -19.6% 31 -5.7% 9 1.1% 18 25 CLE -14.8% 24 -13.9% 25 3-4 -16.5% 27 3.6% 19 5.4% 6 26 STL -17.2% 26 -17.2% 27 3-4 -11.8% 22 8.7% 27 3.4% 11 27 MIN -17.6% 27 -16.9% 26 1-5 -16.0% 26 7.0% 25 5.4% 5 28 OAK -21.5% 28 -20.2% 29 2-4 -15.2% 24 4.2% 21 -2.1% 25 29 WAS -21.6% 30 -18.0% 28 2-4 8.8% 11 12.0% 28 -18.3% 32 30 HOU -23.7% 29 -21.3% 30 2-5 -17.2% 28 -3.1% 13 -9.7% 30 31 NYG -34.9% 31 -31.3% 31 1-6 -18.2% 29 5.2% 23 -11.4% 31 32 JAC -63.4% 32 -59.2% 32 0-7 -44.9% 32 17.9% 31 -0.6% 21

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).