“Politicians at the time maybe thought that the future would be more sunny than the reality is today,” Sweden’s defense minister said of the era after the Cold War. In February, soldiers trained in Gotland, an island 55 miles off the Swedish mainland.

GOTLAND, Sweden — Late last year, Christer Stoltz, chief of contingency planning for Gotland, Sweden’s largest island, got an unusual letter from the central government in Stockholm, telling him to get ready for war.

Municipalities around the country should “increase their ability to resist an armed attack against Sweden from a qualified opponent,” the letter from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency said.

The planning was also intended to respond to natural disasters, oil spills or cyberattacks that could disrupt power and water supplies. But there is no doubt that the Swedish authorities are nervous, given Russia’s more assertive posture and the mounting uncertainties about the future of Europe’s alliance with the United States.

On Thursday, the government announced that mandatory military service — abolished in 2010 — would be introduced starting next year. Four thousand men and women will be drafted into the defense forces.

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If not quite returning to a war footing, Sweden is at least reviving a level of preparedness that many thought had gone the way of the Cold War. “For two decades, our contingency planning was low,” Mr. Stoltz said in a recent interview. “Now, we need to look at our plans.”

Image The Wartofta tank company in Gotland. The regiment is temporarily defending the island while a new, permanent battle group is training on the mainland. Credit... Gordon Welters for The New York Times

In May, Gotland will join all other municipalities in a “Contingency Week,” when Swedes will be taught how to hunker down for 72 hours in case of an emergency. Soon, the authorities will begin to dust off public shelters that have not been inspected for two decades.

For Sweden, the new uncertainties about security are even more pressing than they are for most other European countries. Sweden is neutral and not a member of NATO, so to a much larger extent it must rely on its own defense abilities. Mixed signals from the Trump administration toward Europe have made even NATO allies wary.

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“The threat of the U.S. no longer wanting to honor its security guarantees is the most important development in the history of the alliance,” said Henrik Breitenbauch, the director of the Center for Military Studies in Copenhagen. “It has created high levels of concern all over Europe.”

Peter Hultqvist, Sweden’s defense minister, said Sweden and other European countries were too quick after the Cold War to dismiss potential threats in the region. “Politicians at the time maybe thought that the future would be more sunny than the reality is today,” he said in an interview.

Mr. Hultqvist said: “From my point of view, many mistakes have been made over the years. The security situation and what could come in the future was underestimated.”

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Now the country is moving quickly to make up ground.



When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Baltics seemingly became a region of stability. Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all of which line the Baltic Sea, joined NATO, and later the European Union. In Sweden, military spending fell to 1.1 percent of G.D.P. in 2015 from 2.6 percent in 1991.

Image Visby, Gotland’s main town, is no stranger to hostile foreigners. The city walls and towers, dating back 850 years, were erected to protect against a threat from the Danes. Credit... Gordon Welters for The New York Times

All that changed with Russia’s annexation of Crimea three years ago and the Russian support for the insurgency in Ukraine. As of last year, Swedish military spending was up 11 percent.

Even so, Sweden’s military is simply not that big, particularly when stacked up against a threat from Russia. So everyone gets involved, including the civilian authorities and civilians themselves.

Announcing the return to conscription on Thursday, Mr. Hultqvist pointed to a “deteriorating security environment.”

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“The all-volunteer recruitment hasn’t provided the armed forces with enough personnel,” he said. “The reactivating of conscription is needed for military readiness.”

Gotland, which serves as something of a forward defense for the Swedish mainland, 55 miles to the west, was already remilitarized last September.

Strategically located in the Baltic Sea, the island is not far from the heavily militarized Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. “We see a lot of activity in the Baltics and a lot of training, provocative flights and military exercise going on in our neighborhood,” said Marinette Radebo, a spokeswoman for the Defense Ministry.

Image Sweden is neutral and not a member of NATO. To a large extent, it has to rely on its own defense abilities. Credit... Gordon Welters for The New York Times

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The change has been sudden.

Pfc. Emil Kling, a member of the Wartofta tank company who is now on Gotland, said he had thought he was signing on for something completely different when he joined the armed forces. “If anyone had said three years ago that I’d be in Gotland now, I wouldn’t have believed them,” he said. “Things have changed fast politically.”

A member of a logistics platoon, Private Kling had hoped to serve abroad. February found him practicing maneuvers on a shooting field on the frosty shores of the Baltic Sea as fellow soldiers gathered around a bonfire to keep warm.

The regiment is temporarily defending Gotland while a new, permanent battle group is training on the mainland. This summer it is expected to move to a base still under construction.

Visby, Gotland’s main town, is no stranger to hostile foreigners. The city walls and towers, dating back 850 years, were erected to protect it from the threat of the Danes on the Western edge of the Baltic Sea.

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Just inside the walls’ South Gate, Birgitta Stenstrom runs a quiet book cafe. She is not convinced that the tanks south of town are the right answer to the threats against Gotland, and to Sweden.

“Attacks from cyberspace is the real danger,” she said. “I’m worried about all the infiltration like the supposed Russian manipulation of the U.S. elections. Even if I don’t know if that’s true.”

Image In May, Sweden will spend a week training citizens how to sustain themselves for 72 hours in an emergency. In Gotland, a logistics company held a training exercise. Credit... Gordon Welters for The New York Times

The authorities say there may be reason to be concerned. In the last nine months of 2016, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency received 200 reports of cyberattacks on public infrastructure, 60 of them serious incidents leading to technical failures or the installation of viruses.

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In the Journal of Strategic Studies, Martin Kragh recently published a study on Russia’s “active measures” toward Sweden, meaning the use of forged documents, disinformation, military threats and agents of influence. The study found both good and bad news.

“As regards the use of disinformation, there has been a number of instances with forged telegrams and disinformation in Russian media that have been circulated and at times caused confusion,” he said.

“We can see intent and certain behavioral patterns,” he added, “but we cannot say that it’s been politically effective.”

Mr. Kragh sees the best defense as raising public awareness of the risk of disinformation, as well as open debate on the issue.

Mr. Hultqvist, the defense minister, said he harbored no illusions.

“I think Russia tries to have an impact on the Swedish debate and political decisions,” he said. “That’s what I think.”

Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura contributed reporting from London.

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