GOP race in total disarray

DES MOINES, Iowa — Mike Huckabee’s startling, not-even-close victory over Mitt Romney and the rest of the GOP field in the Iowa caucus means the Republican Party is in for a wildly unpredictable ride in the weeks ahead.

Here’s what’s certain: Romney’s dethroning has created a big opening for a John McCain revival in the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday.


The Iowa results, with a victory for a populist social conservative deeply mistrusted by many people in the Republican establishment, also virtually guarantee that the nomination contest will not simply be a battle over personalities and credentials. Instead, the race will now be a deep and probably intensely negative fight for the direction of the party in the post-Bush era.

Here’s what still utterly uncertain: Who will emerge from this demolition derby? Iowa’s historic role is to winnow the field. In 2008, it has the effect of expanding the number of credible top-tier contenders. There are now five people who can conjure at least somewhat plausible paths to the nomination.

There is Huckabee, who must now try to turn what has been a mostly personality-based campaign into an effective national organization with appeal beyond the religious conservatives who formed the basis of his victory here.

There is Romney, who now must find a new rationale for a candidacy that was based almost entirely on the prospect of scoring early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire and using them to build national momentum.

There is McCain, who has been surging in recent polls in New Hampshire — a state that is only looking more favorable for him after Romney’s Hawkeye State humiliation.

And there is Rudy Giuliani, who did not compete seriously here and has only modest prospects in New Hampshire but remains atop many national surveys and is hoping that a fluid race will allow him to sprint from behind on the basis of a strong Super Tuesday performance on Feb. 5.

Fred Thompson had said in recent days that he needed to come out with a second-place finish. His third place gives him no surge of momentum and compounds his financial problems.

While some of his advisers are recommending that he exit the race, last night they said his plan for the time being is to keep his campaign going and hope for a comeback later this month when the race heads to Dixie in the South Carolina primary.

The next critical moment in this unruly contest is Saturday, when both parties will hold debates in New Hampshire.

If Huckabee’s victory drives New Hampshire’s powerful bloc of independent voters to McCain — who won the state in the 2000 Republican primary — McCain will be extremely difficult to beat.

If Romney loses again in New Hampshire, where he had until recently been leading, his candidacy will go on life support.

Some aides suggested that the former Massachusetts governor's last-stand effort would be later this month in Michigan, where Romney grew up and where his father was governor in the 1960s.

But the Iowa results underscored problems of a candidate who had money, organizational skill, good looks and the support of many establishment politicians and Washington operatives.

Conservatives had questions over his consistency and qualms over his Mormon faith and a personal style that leaves many cold.

These reservations trumped what had been a skilled organization and millions of dollars spent from his own fortune on television ads — many of them unsuccessful attacks on Huckabee as outside the mainstream of conservative thinking.

Huckabee can be sure that there are more attacks ahead.

His support while governor of Arkansas for some tax increases, and other parts of his personal style and ideological positioning, make him anathema to many traditional conservatives. He has been attacked by such figures as radio host Rush Limbaugh and National Review editor Rich Lowry.

Indeed, the weeks ahead will in some ways be a referendum on the identity of the Republican Party.

Each candidate will focus on different elements of the conservative coalition, and who wins could say much about what issues are paramount to a party in transition.

Romney will press economic and cultural issues, hoping to contrast his views with those of McCain and Huckabee on taxes on immigration and those of Giuliani on immigration and abortion rights.

Despite his moderate past, he'll argue that to be successful the party needs a candidate who can appeal to social, economic and security conservatives.

McCain will press the importance of nominating a candidate with strong foreign policy credentials and tout his experience as a Navy pilot and senator — a direct contrast with Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani, none of whom have served and who have no experience with foreign affairs.

He'll also play up the need for reform, making the case that a maverick, somebody who isn't afraid to go his own way and speak out, isn't such a bad thing given the straits of the party and the low view Americans hold of all politicians.

Huckabee's message will be the most unorthodox, at least as the Bush-era GOP goes.

He'll use class-based rhetoric to reach out to disaffected members of his party and those "Reagan Democrats" who are socially conservative but economically more populist. But his lynchpin is social issues — Huckabee's success will validate the role of Christian conservatives in the GOP tent.

Giuliani is sure to play up the importance of the GOP remaining the party of strength and security in a post-Sept. 11 world. "Security moms" are those whom he'll target — voters who aren't motivated by the party's conservative social dogma but who want to be kept safe.

Thompson will focus on his consistent conservative background, arguing that he meets all the Reagan criteria — and has for his entire career. Security and cultural matters will be central in his message.

In addition to the ideological battle, there will be a sharp fight over personalities.

Promising a tough fight against McCain, Romney advisers said they will take aim at the Arizona senator as a figure of the past (a not-so-subtle way of underscoring his age, which will be 72 by the time of the general election) and as a creature of Washington.

"It's change, it's change,” said Romney communications director Matt Rhoades. “It's the future versus the past. That's going to be the message."

For all the campaign’s official brave front, there was no hiding the disappointment.

“Just horrible," adviser Vin Weber responded, when asked how he felt at Romney headquarters here.

"The evangelical base came out, and they all voted for [Huckabee]," Weber, a former Minnesota congressman, observed.

There is no question that evangelical support — estimated by network entrance polls as 60 percent of the Republican caucus turnout — was critical to Huckabee's victory.

But some strategists said that Huckabee has the ability to widen his support.

“His success was also due to his appeal as an authentic and genuine candidate that connected with middle America,” veteran conservative strategist Greg Mueller e-mailed.

“This is an important characteristic of his campaign as it heads to New Hampshire, where [former] Gov. Huckabee now needs to broaden his populist appeal by using the bully pulpit to contrast with McCain on populist themes such as his fair tax plan, immigration and fair trade. In each of these issue areas, Huckabee can position McCain as a Washington insider that represents special interests.”