Wheat, cultivated on around 8.7 million hectares in 2017-18, remains the largest crop sown. However, the crop is currently under attack by the Yellow Rust disease in Punjab.

This year not only was the cash crop sown on time but the weather also remained favourable for most part of the season.

Unusual rain spells at reasonable intervals kept the temperature on the lower side as well as helped overcome water shortages normally faced during the Rabi season because of low river inflows. All these factors facilitated the maturing of the grain.

The use of insecticides has led to a debate among those who favour the use of agriculture poison and its opponents

However, the rare weather conditions — higher humidity with low temperatures — witnessed after decades has also created an atmosphere conducive for pest infestation. The Yellow Rust disease has been reported from almost all wheat growing districts.

First spotted in the third week of February, the disease had affected 20 per cent of the crop within a month, reveals the Punjab Pest Control directorate’s latest (March 19) field survey.

Punjab’s Director General Pest Warning and Quality Control of Pesticides Dr Zafar Yab Haider said most of the crop varieties affected were either unapproved, or approved for sowing in Sindh rather than Punjab.

He continued that new wheat varieties like FD-8 and Johar remained safe from the fungus attack, and hoped that the disease would not drastically impact the overall yield since the grain has been able to fully develop in time for sowing. It only needs high temperatures to harden.

Commenting on the use of old seeds, Dr Javed Ahmad, director wheat research institute at Ayub Agriculture Research Institute, stressed that wheat growers should sow a new seed variety after a couple of years. This is important as repeated sowing allows the Yellow Rust to overcome the plant’s resistance to the disease.

He pointed out that as weather conditions remained unfavourable for pest infestation during the last two decades or so, farmers continued to reuse old wheat varieties (like FD-2000, Sehar, Punjab-2011 and Galaxy) contrary to the advice of agriculture experts.

Dr Ahmad opined that the loss in yield because of Yellow Rust will remain insignificant as long as the disease did not affect Flag Leaves — the leaves responsible for preparing food for the plant during the last four weeks of its lifespan.

At this stage in the crop’s development the situation can only deteriorate if the daylight temperature drops more than 20 degrees Celsius for a week or so.

Nervous at the outbreak of the Yellow Rust, farmers in some areas have resorted to spraying fungicides to protect their crop from the disease. Pakistan Kisan Ittehad President Khalid Mahmood Khokhar said he had gotten his crop, in Khanewal district, sprayed as well soon after spotting the disease.

The use of insecticides has led to a debate among those who favour the use of agriculture poison and its opponents.

Experts recommend the use of fungicides at least on the patches where the disease is found. They say any of the three fungicides — Nativo, Tilt and Electis Super — is equally useful for controlling the disease.

But Dr Ahmad warned against the use of pesticides, keeping in view the fact that wheat in the country is used in its raw form and residual effects of the agriculture poison may affect human health. It will also add to the already high costs of wheat production: “Our wheat crop meets all international quality standards but because of its higher production costs we are failing to export the commodity.”

He advised wheat growers to avoid further irrigating their fields and applying fertilisers as it will aggravate the situation by adding to the humidity. The present soil humidity is sufficient for the crop to mature.

Strong winds after a light rain last Wednesday in some central Punjab districts have flattened the crop which may lead to a 50pc fall in yield.

On the other hand, to the anxiety of the farming community, the government has neither framed its wheat procurement policy nor fixed the procurement target yet even though harvest time is just three weeks away.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, March 25th, 2019