The recession lingers. Gas supplies are more than adequate. No oil refineries are down. And drivers continue to drive less.

Yet California gas prices have surged to more than $3 a gallon, rising as much as 26 cents in the past two weeks at some South Bay stations. To the befuddlement of many motorists, some energy experts say the price hikes will keep coming.

“I think you’ll see prices peak at about $3.25 in a couple of weeks,” said Bob van der Valk, a fuel-pricing analyst in Lynnwood, Wash. “Then they may start to level off by Labor Day.”

A gallon of gas cost $3.04 in San Jose on average Saturday, up 13 cents in the past week. That’s a penny more than the state average of $3.03 and a lot higher than the U.S. average of $2.64.

Prices have climbed every day since July 22 as crude oil has risen $10 a barrel in the past month, topping out at $72 a barrel last week.

“What’s the deal?” asked Ted Wada of Watsonville. “Our Chevron station on North Main Street has gone up 26 cents in less than two weeks. Are we starting the Labor Day rush already?”

Partly, but there’s more going on. The feeling that the recession may have bottomed out in the U.S. and positive economic news out of China have oil buyers believing demand will increase.

According to an analysis by the AAA auto club, an increase in Chinese demand for oil is a sign the nation’s massive manufacturing sector may be coming back to life. Reports out of China suggest manufacturing output has reached its highest levels since late last year.

The Chinese are on a car-buying binge, and a surge in manufacturing increases is sure to increase that nation’s oil consumption and may signal a pending increase in global economic activity, both of which tend to drive up the price of oil in the short term.

And last week, Wall Street traders used news that the U.S. manufacturing sector had slowed its rate of contraction to further inflate hopes of a pending economic turnaround.

“The recent rally is based more on optimism about the future prospects for the economy than on current supply and demand,” said Matt Skryja, a spokesman for the state auto club in California. “Oil investors try to anticipate where the economy is going. Typically, as the economy gets better, more oil is used.

“So if investors think the economy is improving they will buy more oil because it’s a commodity they think will be in demand. Those factors help spur trading and drive up the price.”

Also at play: the weak U.S. dollar.

A weak dollar encourages investors to buy oil, which is cheaper for buyers using other currencies and tends to drive up the market price. And it makes oil more expensive for those who buy it with dollars.

Got it?

Don’t feel bad if you don’t, for some longtime gas station owners and local oil executives are also left scratching their heads when asked to explain the spike.

“I honestly don’t know,” said Chuck Brassfield, owner of a Shell station on Capitol Expressway that has raised its price from $2.99 to $3.19 a gallon within two weeks. “We had no warning at all. My cost has gone up five times in the last 10 days. Either the futures market speculators are driving it up, or the oil companies are gearing up for another quarter of record profits.”

Added Tom Robinson of Robinson Oil in San Jose:

“Why crude oil is strong, with the weak demand, is confusing to me. It seems speculators seeing the weaker dollar have increased the price of crude or because the economy is showing signs of recovery, they are bidding oil up.

“As I said, confusing.”

Some drivers are more outraged than confused. But many seemed resigned to paying more for a fill-up.

Perhaps that’s because the memory of paying $4.59 a gallon last year — the South Bay’s single-day high was reached on June 25, 2008 — remains painfully fresh.

“Fill-ups are painful and costly,” said motorist David Epstein of Palo Alto. “But what stings more is that I know that as the economy improves, gas prices will go up. I take this as a given.”

Is there any encouraging news on the oil scene? Yes, said analyst van der Valk.

When California switches from its more expensive summer blend of fuel to its winter blend around Halloween, prices will take a big dive, he predicts — maybe back to the $2.50-a-gallon range of just a few weeks ago.

“It happens every year,” he said. “And this will be no different.”

Have a gripe, minor annoyance or major problem with transportation? Contact Gary Richards at 408-920-5335.