The best case and worst case for Louisville football in 2018

Jake Lourim | Courier Journal

Earlier this month, we went through every game on Louisville’s football schedule and analyzed how the Cardinals could win each game and how they could lose each game.

It was essentially the best case and worst case for each week. Today, we give you the best case and worst case for the entire season.

Here are Louisville’s dream and nightmare scenarios for 2018:

Best case

The Cards have prepared for eight months for a daunting season opener against Alabama, so they come in with boundless energy. In his first career start at quarterback, Jawon Pass drives them down the field with a six-play, 75-yard drive powered by two 30-plus-yard passes to Jaylen Smith.

Bobby Petrino takes advantage of Alabama’s one possible weakness — a rebuilt secondary —and sticks with the passing game. His new quarterback is impressive, throwing for more than 300 yards and only one interception.

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But the Crimson Tide are unstoppable. They answer Pass’ first touchdown drive with one of their own, and they don’t stop scoring. After a valiant effort by Louisville, Alabama seals the deal with a pick-six in the fourth quarter and wins, 38-28.

Still, the Cards are encouraged by the effort and come home to trounce Indiana State and Western Kentucky. Now riding a winning streak, they go on the road and steamroll a rebuilding Virginia team, 42-13.

Louisville goes for its third straight win against Florida State but runs into an inspired, undefeated team in Willie Taggart’s first season. One final push falls short inside the 10-yard line as the Cards lose, 39-37, and fall to 3-2.

Louisville struggles in the first half against Georgia Tech and falls behind at halftime, 21-3. But Brian VanGorder’s defense stifles the triple-option offense in the second half, and Pass’ three second-half touchdowns rally the Cards as they fight back with a Friday night crowd behind them. Kicker Blanton Creque stays perfect on the season and drills a 46-yarder for the win as time expires.

Confident again, Louisville rolls into Boston College, dealer of the 2017 team’s most disappointing loss. In his second straight test as the defensive ace, sophomore linebacker Dorian Etheridge finishes with 16 tackles as the Cards limit Heisman Trophy contender A.J. Dillon to 76 yards and a touchdown. Louisville wins, 23-17, and cruises in its next game against Wake Forest, lifted by two Rodjay Burns interceptions.

Now 6-2, the Cards roll into Clemson to face the three-time reigning ACC champion. The Tigers are undefeated despite not having settled their quarterback question. They try both Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence against Louisville, but the Cards’ defense holds firm. After one last stop, Louisville gets the ball back down 20-13 with 1:04 left. But the Tigers’ defensive front wears down Louisville for sacks on first and second down, and attempts on third and fourth down fall short.

Louisville weathers a disastrous start the following Friday night against Syracuse, giving up 35 points in the first half in front of a raucous crowd. Pass, who is quickly earning a reputation as a clutch second-half performer, fires a touchdown to each of his three top receivers as the Cards win, 55-42.

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Used sparingly in the first 10 games, redshirt freshman running back Colin Wilson breaks out against NC State and rushes 23 times for 217 yards and four touchdowns. In a 38-34 Louisville win, the home fans start dreaming about a 2019 season led by Pass and Wilson. As the clock winds down, they begin chanting “BEAT U-K!”

The following week, the Cards do. They continue their dominance from last season against the in-state rivals, passing and rushing their way to a 35-10 blowout. Top prospect J.J. Weaver commits to Louisville the following day.

Thrilled by a 9-3 season, improving on their 2017 record, Louisville scores an invite to New York City for the Pinstripe Bowl. The Cards pull ahead of Maryland in the second half, winning 25-23 and ending the year by making snow angels at Yankee Stadium after their first double-digit win season since 2013.

Worst case

The season turns sour quickly as Alabama scores twice on offense and then adds a blocked punt returned for a touchdown before the first quarter ends. In the second quarter, Alabama deals a season-ending injury to Pass, essentially ruining the Cards’ season as it did Florida State’s last year. The final score in Orlando is 52-7.

Without Pass, Louisville has to reconstruct its offense on the fly, winning a clunker against Indiana State. The Cards trail for most of the second half against Western Kentucky before Malik Cunningham saves them with a 32-yard touchdown run in the final moments.

Beginning a stretch of games against running quarterbacks, Louisville struggles to stop new Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins. The Cards outgain the Cavaliers, but four turnovers bring their downfall. Louisville plays uninspired against a Florida State team out for revenge and loses, 41-10.

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Now down two defensive starters as well, Louisville has no answer for Georgia Tech at home on Friday night. As the Yellow Jackets run past the Cards, 49-24, in a torrential rainstorm. The crowd empties out before the third quarter ends.

A.J. Dillon, rushing for 181 yards per game as Boston College starts 6-0, demolishes Louisville’s defense and the Cards give up 40 points for the third straight week. They slump to last in the ACC in scoring defense and appear likely to make a change at defensive coordinator for the third straight offseason.

Louisville recovers to beat Wake Forest at home after the off week, but the Cards stand no chance against Clemson in Death Valley. The Tigers allow negative rushing yards and drop Louisville to 3-6. On a quick turnaround at Syracuse, Louisville can’t stop a healthy Eric Dungey and loses again to fall short of a bowl game.

NC State’s Ryan Finley torches Louisville for 409 yards, and Cunningham throws two more interceptions in the first half. Searching for options, the Cards try freshman Jordan Travis at quarterback, but he turns the ball over twice more in the second half and suffers a minor injury that ends his freshman season a week early.

Louisville hits rock-bottom against Kentucky. Benny Snell scores on runs of 51, 74 and 63 on the Wildcats’ first three series, reaching 200 yards rushing in the first quarter. The Cards rotate four running backs in and out but can’t establish a rhythm with any of them. They lose, 28-20. The Cards finish 3-9 and miss a bowl game for the first time since 2009, facing a long road back to relevance after losing Lamar Jackson.

Jake Lourim: 502-582-4168; jlourim@courierjournal.com; Twitter: @jakelourim. Support /strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/jakel.