If the turnout for Tuesday's special election looks like the 2014 midterm, Roy Moore (pictured) has a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Doug Jones | Joe Raedle/Getty Images Monmouth poll: Close Alabama Senate race hinges on turnout

Alabama's closely watched Senate special election could swing either way depending on who shows up to vote Tuesday, according to a new Monmouth University poll, which showed Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore leading under different turnout models.

If the turnout for Tuesday's special election looks like the 2014 midterm, Moore has a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Jones. But if the election looks like turnout models based on the most high-profile statewide election of 2017 so far, last month's gubernatorial race in Virginia, the two men are tied at 46 percent of the vote. And if voter demographics resemble the 2016 presidential election, Jones has 48 percent of the vote to Moore's 45 percent, according to Monmouth.


Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said the major differences in the turnout model would be increased turnout in Birmingham, the state's largest city, and in 12 counties that are part of the state's Black Belt. The pollsters also allocated undecided and write-in voters to either Jones or Moore based on other questions about party preference, the impact of President Donald Trump's endorsement of Moore and their opinions of the two candidates. The allocations aim to compensate for voters who might not be willing to admit they plan to vote for Moore because of the allegations.

"Basically, the various turnout and vote intent models suggest that a Moore victory is the more likely outcome, but there is still an opening for Jones. He needs to get relatively higher turnout in Democratic areas and keep GOP-leaning voters who are uncomfortable with Moore from ultimately choosing him once they get into the privacy of the voting booth," Murray said.

POLITICO Playbook newsletter Sign up today to receive the #1-rated newsletter in politics Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

The poll also found Jones is more popular than Moore: Forty-five percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 37 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Thirty-seven have a favorable opinion of Moore, and 48 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

The election between Moore, the twice-ousted former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, and Jones, a former U.S. attorney, has been unexpectedly close for a state as staunchly Republican as Alabama. Allegations that Moore sexually preyed on young girls have rocked the electorate and made turnout difficult to predict for pollsters. Most polls released in the past week have given Moore the lead, although a Fox News poll out Monday morning showed Jones with a substantial advantage.

Nearly half of the electorate is skeptical of stories about Moore sexually abusing young girls: 27 percent said reports on his relationship with girls have been exaggerated, while 22 percent said they are totally made up. Forty-one percent believe the reports are generally accurate.

A majority of voters, 53 percent, approve of Trump's job performance, with 44 percent disapproval. Voters are split on the Republican Party: Forty-seven percent have a favorable view, and 42 percent have an unfavorable view. But they are clearly down on the Democrats: Just 33 percent have a favorable opinion, and 54 percent have an unfavorable opinion.