The Top Goalscorer market and the search for value amongst strikers

With the start of the new campaign just a few of weeks away, the Bookies’ Advantage returns to help you use the odds compiled by mathematical geniuses in bookmakers’ trading rooms to give you an edge when it comes to fantasy football.

In this pre-season article, we analyse the Top Goalscorer market for the 2018/19 Premier League season in order to find value, in a slightly atypical manner, amongst FPL strikers.

Striker Avg.Odds Implied % Price % per £1m EG EG per £1m Harry Kane 3.54 28.28% 12.5 2.26% 28.17 2.25 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 7.57 13.20% 11 1.20% 13.15 1.20 Romelu Lukaku 8.95 11.17% 11 1.02% 11.13 1.01 Sergio Aguero 9.12 10.96% 11 1.00% 10.92 0.99 Gabriel Jesus 12.84 7.79% 10.5 0.74% 7.76 0.74 Alexandre Lacazette 25.65 3.90% 9.5 0.41% 3.88 0.41 Roberto Firmino 29.87 3.35% 9.5 0.35% 3.33 0.35 Alvaro Morata 30.65 3.26% 9 0.36% 3.25 0.36 Olivier Giroud 41.00 2.44% 8 0.30% 2.43 0.30 Jamie Vardy 41.65 2.40% 9 0.27% 2.39 0.27 Sandro Ramirez 58.33 1.71% 5.5 0.31% 1.71 0.31 Connor Wickham 59.00 1.69% 5 0.34% 1.69 0.34 Marko Arnautovic 61.91 1.62% 7 0.23% 1.61 0.23 Marcus Rashford 66.00 1.52% 7 0.22% 1.51 0.22 Cenk Tosun 71.26 1.40% 7 0.20% 1.40 0.20 Collin Quaner 93.67 1.07% 4.5 0.24% 1.06 0.24 Kelechi Iheanacho 97.95 1.02% 6 0.17% 1.02 0.17 Christian Benteke 99.48 1.01% 6.5 0.15% 1.00 0.15 Javier Hernandez 99.71 1.00% 6.5 0.15% 1.00 0.15 Daniel Sturridge 104.06 0.96% 6 0.16% 0.96 0.16 Elias Kachunga 105.67 0.95% 5 0.19% 0.94 0.19 Charlie Austin 107.67 0.93% 6 0.15% 0.93 0.15 Aleksandar Mitrovic 116.13 0.86% 6.5 0.13% 0.86 0.13 Leo Bonatini 120.00 0.83% 5 0.17% 0.83 0.17 Tomer Hemed 124.33 0.80% 5 0.16% 0.80 0.16 Wilfried Zaha 128.00 0.78% 7 0.11% 0.78 0.11 Aboubakar Kamara 128.00 0.78% 4.5 0.17% 0.78 0.17 Jermain Defoe 128.50 0.78% 6 0.13% 0.78 0.13 Fernando Llorente 131.33 0.76% 6 0.13% 0.76 0.13 Callum Wilson 131.71 0.76% 6 0.13% 0.76 0.13 Oumar Niasse 131.86 0.76% 5.5 0.14% 0.76 0.14 Glenn Murray 134.33 0.74% 6.5 0.11% 0.74 0.11 Danny Welbeck 137.90 0.73% 6.5 0.11% 0.72 0.11 Dwight Gayle 145.05 0.69% 6 0.11% 0.69 0.11 Florin Andone 145.38 0.69% 5 0.14% 0.69 0.14 Stefano Okaka 146.40 0.68% 5 0.14% 0.68 0.14 Raul Jimenez 146.50 0.68% 5.5 0.12% 0.68 0.12 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 149.57 0.67% 5.5 0.12% 0.67 0.12 Danny Ings 151.00 0.66% 5.5 0.12% 0.66 0.12 Andy Carroll 156.97 0.64% 5.5 0.12% 0.63 0.12 Ayoze Perez 160.17 0.62% 6.5 0.10% 0.62 0.10 Laurent Depoitre 160.29 0.62% 5.5 0.11% 0.62 0.11 Steve Mounie 169.13 0.59% 6 0.10% 0.59 0.10 Troy Deeney 170.05 0.59% 6 0.10% 0.59 0.10 Chris Wood 172.43 0.58% 6.5 0.09% 0.58 0.09 Josh King 174.84 0.57% 6.5 0.09% 0.57 0.09 Andre Gray 183.89 0.54% 6 0.09% 0.54 0.09 Joselu 186.11 0.54% 5 0.11% 0.54 0.11 Manolo Gabbiadini 194.75 0.51% 6 0.09% 0.51 0.09 Dominic Solanke 195.44 0.51% 5 0.10% 0.51 0.10 Alexander Sorloth 200 0.50% 5 0.10% 0.50 0.10 Sam Vokes 214.33 0.47% 5.5 0.08% 0.46 0.08 Kenneth Zohore 239.46 0.42% 5 0.08% 0.42 0.08 Shinji Okazaki 245.15 0.41% 5.5 0.07% 0.41 0.07 Ashley Barnes 250 0.40% 6 0.07% 0.40 0.07 Jurgen Locadia 250 0.40% 5.5 0.07% 0.40 0.07 Bobby Reid 250 0.40% 5.5 0.07% 0.40 0.07 Nahki Wells 251.00 0.40% 4.5 0.09% 0.40 0.09 Shane Long 284.69 0.35% 5 0.07% 0.35 0.07 Gary Madine 304.50 0.33% 4.5 0.07% 0.33 0.07 This week only… ⚽COMPETE FOR £100,000 WITH YOUR FANTASY TEAM

Notes on the data

The “AVG ODDS” column displays the average of the odds across 20 top bookmakers for the striker in question to be the Premier League top goalscorer come the end of the season.

The odds show the return for a £1 bet on the striker in question, including your £1 stake. For example, a £1 bet on Harry Kane to be top goalscorer, if successful, would return £3.54 at the end of the season. Similarly, a £1 bet on Marko Arnautovic would net you £61.91 if the Hammers’ frontman was to outscore everybody else in the top flight.

The “IMPLIED %” column shows the probability assigned to the striker in question of winning the Golden Boot. The table is sorted by this value, ranking the strikers in order of most to least likely, according to the bookies. Tottenham hitman Harry Kane tops the list with a 28.28% chance of finishing the campaign as the top scorer, whilst Cardiff’s Gary Madine is ranked least likely to win of the strikers in question with a 0.33% chance.

The “PRICE” column shows the player’s starting price in FPL. Aleksandar Mitrovic has been given a predicted price of £6.5m as, at the time of writing, his official FPL price has not yet been revealed.

The “% per £1m” shows, per £1m of your Fantasy budget spent on each player, what percentage of the top goalscorer market you are (expectedly) buying.

The “EG” (Expected Goals) column shows the number of goals you can expect from the striker in question, based on their ranking by the bookmakers, and also based on the average number of goals scored by the Premier League top scorer over the last 6 seasons (26, 31, 26, 25, 29, 32) being 28.17 goals per season. Harry Kane, ranked most likely by the bookies, is therefore attributed an EG value of 28.17 goals this campaign. Other players are then attributed EG by working out how likely they are to win the Golden Boot in comparison to Kane, using their implied percentages. Romelu Lukaku, for example, has a 39.50% chance of winning the Golden Boot in comparison to Kane (11.17%/28.28% = 39.50%), so we could take this to mean he will score, according to the bookies’ expectations, 39.50% of Kane’s 28.17 goals, or 11.13 goals. You will notice that the EG numbers drop dramatically as we move down the table, almost to unrealistic values (e.g. Roberto Firmino with 3.33 expected goals), which is why we mentioned that this method is atypical. However, this does allow us to make useful comparisons between players with the same, or similar, FPL prices.

“EG per £1m” then shows the expected goals for the striker in question per £1m of your FPL budget spent on them. This is another column useful for finding value across different players.

Finally, a few obscure budget strikers have been omitted (Hugill, Baldock, Bogle) as they have not been priced up by bookmakers in the top goalscorer market, whilst midfielders have also been omitted (heavy hitters like Mo Salah, Eden Hazard and Alexis Sanchez do rank highly with the bookies in this market) because this article focuses solely on strikers.

Conclusions from the data

First of all, looking at the big hitting forwards, if you are going to select just one, Harry Kane is the clear choice, topping all categories after scoring 30 times last season, despite his price tag being the highest amongst strikers in the game. If you are going to pair an £11.0m striker with the England star, then Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looks to offer more value than both Sergio Aguero and Romelu Lukaku. If you are looking at the £9.5-10.5m bracket for one of your front three, Gabriel Jesus outclasses Alexandre Lacazette and Roberto Firmino (0.74 EG per £1m vs 0.41 vs 0.35). This makes Liverpool’s Brazilian forward the worst value premium striker in the game, with Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata (£9.0m) offering better value according to this method.

The £7m price point has been a topic of much conversation during pre-season, with fantasy football managers struggling to decide between the re-classified Wilfried Zaha and Marko Arnautovic, whilst Everton’s Cenk Tosun is also in the mix. According to the data, Arnautovic, who scored 11 Premier League goals last season, is the best option, with Tosun (5 goals in half a season) not far behind. Zaha (9 goals), however, is comparatively poor, with an EG per £1m of just 0.11, seeing a raft of low priced strikers offer better value.

Speaking of low priced strikers, Connor Wickham (£5.0m), if he can force his way into the Palace line up, will provide as much bang for your buck as higher priced options like Firmino and Morata. Aleksandar Mitrovic, should he complete his expected move to Fulham (and be priced at £6.5m or less) will offer the best mix of value and starting security at the lower end of the price spectrum. In the uber-budget (£4.5m) category, Collin Quaner and Aboubakar Kamara appear to be the best bench choices if you do not intend to play 3 strikers on a regular basis.

The data is also useful when comparing striking options from the same club. For example, if you feel that Bournemouth are a side that will score a high number of goals this season and want to buy into their attack, the bookies estimate that Jermain Defoe and Callum Wilson (0.13 EG per £1m) both offer better value than the pricier Josh King (0.09). Similarly, Charlie Austin offers superior value to Manolo Gabbiadini down at St Mary’s, whilst Leo Bonatini is preferred to Raul Jimenez from Championship winners Wolves. Elsewhere, Huddersfield’s Laurent Depoitre and Watford’s Troy Deeney edge their respective club battles with Steve Mounie and Andre Gray.

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