Corona Forecast assumes that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases will grow exponentially. This is a BIG simplification, and it will not be a valid one as social distancing measures start to have an effect. We make this assumption so that we can perform a Simple Linear Regression to calculate the growth rate for the sampled data.

We fit our linear regression to the previous 5 days of data to calculate the exponential growth factor. Then we then assume that growth factor will stay constant for the future and calculate how many cases there will be at a given time. Like Easter, for example.

As you can see, when the infection rate drops a little bit, the prediction number of confirmed cases in the future drops significantly.

We can all help slow the spread of COVID-19 in Australia. To protect others you must: