Then-commander of U.S. Central Command Gen. Joseph Votel testified in February 2019 that a “modest” U.S. investment in the LAF has created a “modernized, legitimate fighting force” with demonstrated ability to conduct counterterrorism operations and “protect the Lebanese people from internal and external threats.”

But capability and the willingness to use that capability are two different things. The LAF’s refusal to counter Hezbollah has enabled the Iran-backed terror group to undertake an extraordinary military buildup that includes an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles.

The LAF’s unwillingness to address Hezbollah’s growing arsenal is particularly concerning in light of what Gen. Votel called Hezbollah’s “provocative actions” that threaten Israel’s security and “Lebanon’s stability.”

That is putting it mildly. One study almost two years ago called Hezbollah’s terrorist militia the “world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.” Israeli officials say Hezbollah’s military capacity exceeds that of many European states.

According to recent reports, Hezbollah is now stockpiling even more dangerous weapons. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is working with Hezbollah to create facilities in Lebanon to convert unguided rockets and missiles to precision guided munitions, or PGM, that can reliably strike within a few meters of their intended target. Hezbollah now has dozens of these PGMs, or even a few hundred. These weapons could enable Hezbollah to overwhelm Israeli defenses with PGMs, striking strategic targets in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa port or the Dimona nuclear facility with potentially catastrophic effects.

This is putting increased political and military pressure on Israeli leaders to undertake a large-scale preemptive strike to prevent Hezbollah from launching a war against Israel that could inflict catastrophic damage. Such a preemptive operation would devastate the lives and communities of thousands of Lebanese. This is because Hezbollah has deliberately placed a significant portion of its arsenal, warehouses and production facilities in civilian areas.

Even the most ardent advocates for continued U.S. funding admit that during this buildup, the LAF was nowhere to be found. And the LAF’s inaction endangers continued U.S. funding.

Tying money to action

In his testimony last year, Gen. Votel implicitly acknowledged that the LAF is not today a counterbalance to Hezbollah. He said the LAF “has the potential to eventually form a deterrent to increased Iranian activity, and a vital counterbalance to Hezbollah influence.” That is good news, but time is running out.

The Trump administration has famously scrutinized U.S. foreign assistance, seeking and implementing significant cuts. Some of those cuts have been prudent and many of them ill-advised. Regardless, at a time when U.S. policymakers, voters and taxpayers are inclined to cut U.S. commitments and expenditures in the Middle East, it may only be a matter of time until they say pull the plug on the LAF.

The debate now centers around whether it is realistic to demand that the LAF take concerted action against Hezbollah’s PGM supply lines and its arsenal. The LAF’s critics say they must take action. Proponents of the LAF say this would only lead to civil war. But it is a false binary to suggest that one must choose between accepting LAF inaction and a civil war between the LAF and Hezbollah.