THERESA MAY received an early birthday present on Wednesday – and from a most unlikely source.

Jean-Claude Juncker’s speech setting out his vision for ever more European integration was a gift to her.

Theresa May's birthday has come early this after Jean-Claude Juncker's speech to the European Parliament Credit: NEWS UK/BRIGHTY

The Commission President’s speech made clear that the EU is going to be a place that most Brits cannot accept.

(And it is worth noting how warmly his speech has been received by the EU’s big three — France, Germany and Italy).

For that reason, as one Downing Street source points out, “It kills the second referendum.

“There were people who wanted to remain on the status quo. But it is not on offer.”

Juncker has also teed up May’s big Brexit speech in Florence.

By showing where he wants the EU to go, he has demonstrated why Britain is leaving.

Theresa May doesn't have to worry about a second referendum anymore Credit: Reuters

As one of those closely involved with the Government’s Brexit strategy says, it “allows her to say they’ve set out a vision for them, and most ­people in Britain wouldn’t want to be part of this”.

May may be taking to the European stage on Friday, but it is not yet certain what she will say.

One senior figure on the Leave campaign who is still close to its leading Tory ­advocates warns “they’re all very nervous about what’s in that speech”.

The biggest domestic challenge for May, one insider says, is that “Boris has to be squared” and there is quite a lot of nervousness about that.

Jean- Claude Juncker's vision for Europe is painting a picture that most Brits won't agree Credit: Copyright 2017 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

I’m told Boris has been “the most hard-line” of the ­Cabinet Brexiteers. One of those involved in the negotiations between the two camps predicts “it is going to be a tetchy week”.

The issue with Boris is money. He doesn’t want to pay a huge divorce bill to the EU AND he has told No10 that he wants that £350million for the NHS.

I understand Michael Gove is also pushing for more cash for the health service once we leave the EU.

My information is that Boris couldn’t deal with £10billion a year or more going to the EU during any transition period.

Boris Johnson is Theresa May's biggest domestic challenge Credit: AFP or licensors

I’m told his view is: “If you’re paying for access, you haven’t left yet”.

One well-placed Tory warns: “He can’t possibly stomach this. The PM really has to be very careful”.

Before adding that this is a “big week for Boris and Theresa”.

This source emphasises that “No10 have to be mindful of not putting Boris in an impossible situation”.

So, on Friday, Theresa May will have to say enough about what the UK will pay to ­persuade the EU — who are ­desperate for money to avoid a Brexit-sized hole in their ­budget — that enough progress has been made to move on to the trade talks proper.

Michael Gove is also pushing for more money to spent for the health service Credit: PA

At the same time, she has to avoid committing to anything that her Foreign Secretary ­cannot accept.

This will require a level of political cunning that ­famous Florentine Niccolo Machiavelli would be proud of.

James Forsyth is Political Editor of The Spectator.

Counting cost of lifting pay cap

“HE’S signed Jeremy Hunt’s death warrant.” That was one Government source’s reaction to the news that Philip Hammond was lifting the public sector pay cap but wasn’t guaranteeing ­departments more money to cover the costs.

Departments with large public sector workforces – such as Health – fear that their workers, ­having heard that the public sector pay cap has gone, will demand a rise.

Philip Hammond has told departments that they will be able to bid for more money once they to cover any pay rises Credit: Reuters

But the department won’t have any more money to pay them and so will be stuck in an impossible position.

When Cabinet discussed this on Tuesday, I’m told that the Defence Secretary Michael Fallon was outspoken on this point.

“Michael is very exercised about this,” one ­Cabinet minister tells me. Those close to the ­Chancellor say that ­everything will be looked at on a “case-by-case basis”.

They note that the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice can afford to pay for the rise for police and prison officers, respectively, out of efficiency savings as they are not actually that expensive.

The Defence Secretary Michael Fallon was outspoken about the pay cap coming off

Ministerial allies of Hammond explain that departments will be able to bid for more money to cover any pay rises in the spending round.

One ally points out that most of these ministers were agitating to lift the cap so they shouldn’t be ­complaining now it is gone.

But all of this is another reminder of how ­politically dangerous this autumn’s ­Budget is for the Government.

This is another reminder about how dangerous the autumn's Budget is for the Government Credit: Reuters

They’ll have to find a way to fund all their new promises but without creating a backlash against unpopular tax rises.

This would trouble even the most ­political of Chancellors, and Philip Hammond certainly isn’t that.



Message needs to hit home

THE opening day of next month’s Tory conference is being devoted to three things.

What went wrong with the election, how can the Tories appeal to young people, and the Union.

The review of former party chairman Eric Pickles will be about recommendations to prevent the Tories from blowing another landslide Credit: PA:Press Association

I understand the review of the election by ex-party chairman Eric Pickles is longer on recommendations for the future than blame for how the Tories blew a landslide.

The party’s new chief executive, Mick Davis, has told the board he intends to hire a slew of new staff to try to boost the party’s campaigning presence.

But whatever fixes the Tories make to their broken election machine, it won’t matter unless they can come up with a message that appeals to more voters – particularly those in their twenties and thirties.

“We’ve retoxified ourselves with young people,” admits one Tory Cabinet minister.

The party's new chief executive, Mick Davis, has said he will hire new staff Credit: Getty - Contributor

The most important thing the Tories could do to begin winning back these voters is to fix the broken housing market.

Sajid Javid is making some progress on this.

But too many Tories are still worried about what their existing supporters will think about a big house-building programme.

The voters need to be told the choice is simple – either the Tories get this done or Jeremy Corbyn’s high-tax Labour wins.

Lib Dems' future relies on Cable telly

THE Lib Dem conference starts this weekend. But will anybody notice?

Despite uniquely favourable ­circumstances – the Brexit vote and both the Labour and Tory leaders alienating large sections of the electorate – the Lib Dem vote share went down at the last election.

If Vince Cable can't get his party talked about after the conference then they are beyond saving Credit: EPA

Much of the blame for that is being pinned on their now departed leader Tim Farron, who got tangled up in a controversy over his views on gay sex. New leader Vince Cable is second only to Nigel Farage in his ability to get himself in the media despite his minor party ­status.

But if Cable can’t get his party talked about this week, it’ll be a sign the Lib Dems might be beyond ­saving.

May's trying make allies

THERESA MAY used to be renowned in Westminster for bearing grudges. But there are signs she is changing as she tries to rebuild relations with her MPs.

Theresa May used to be known to hold grudges but lately has been seen trying to make new friends with Claire Perry Credit: PA:Press Association

I’m told she recently had ­Climate Change minister Claire Perry up to the Downing Street flat.

This is quite a turnaround from a year ago when Perry was declaring that people thought May was putting “narrow ideological interests ahead of the national interest”.