After well over a month in first place, the record breaking reign of Black Panther will likely end this weekend, thanks to Universal’s action sequel Pacific Rim: Uprising. Also hitting theaters are Paramount’s family comedy Sherlock Gnomes, teen drama Midnight Sun, Sony’s religious drama Paul, Apostle of Christ, as well as the experimental microbudget horror thriller Unsane.

Pacific Rim: Uprising lands a full five years after its predecessor, which underperformed on its opening weekend, taking in just around $37 million – only good for third place at the time. When all was said and done, it made just about double its $190 million budget worldwide, largely buoyed by strong overseas results. Uprising slashed the budget to $150 million and focused more of its efforts on the Chinese market, which has shown considerable growth since 2013. Domestically, however, things may be difficult; tracking has the film anywhere from high teens to low $30s, but the weak reviews and slew of competition will most likely keep it on the low end.

What will likely be shooting for second or third is Sherlock Gnomes, which is targeting an opening somewhere in the mid teens. Family releases have been sparse as of late, which could give this one a shot at breaking out. No critical reviews are currently available, though if one were judging purely on trailer reception on social media, the twerking scene seems to have granted it the position of the most despised film of 2018 before even releasing (with the exception of maybe Ready Player One). A comprable title to this would be last years Smurfs: The Lost Village, which opened with around $13 million last year.

Paul, Apostle of Christ opens in around 1,400 theaters this weekend, though may struggle to compete with the unexpectedly strong I Can Only Imagine. Reviews have not been kind thusfar, but with a budget of just $5 million, this should be able to turn a profit for Sony. Expectations are rather wide, between $2-$7 million, and something in the middle seems most likely.

Open Road Films will be releasing their teen drama Midnight Sun in around 2,000 theaters this weekend. Marketing has been fairly light, and (once again) no critical reception is available. Look for this one to open with around $4 million.

Finally, the biggest ‘wild card’ of the weekend is Unsane, a psychological thriller shot on an iPhone with a budget of $1.5 million. This is the second title for Fingerprint releasing (Steven Soderbergh’s experimental distribution method) following Logan Lucky, another film which was produced with a relatively low budget financed from foreign presales. Unsane has seen less marketing and is opening in 1,000 fewer theaters, but the strong critical reception and interest surrounding it should get it above $3 million for the weekend.

Among holdovers, Black Panther should be looking at around $18 million, while Tomb Raider will likely be around $10 million.

Predictions

Pacific Rim: Uprising – $20M Black Panther – $18.5M Sherlock Gnomes – $15M I Can Only Imagine – $10.5M Tomb Raider – $9.8M A Wrinkle in Time – $7.5M

Paul, Apostle of Christ – $4.5M

Midnight Sun – $3.9M

Unsane – $3.2M