Election antics have Washington politicians and pundits anticipating Obama’s final schtick Saturday, where he has wielded his wit against Trump for years

“Donald Trump is here – still,” observed a somewhat incredulous Barack Obama in 2015, when the butt of his jokes returned for more punishment at the annual White House correspondents’ dinner.

The Republican presidential frontrunner, who is currently campaigning in California, may not be physically present this Saturday night when Obama returns to the stage at the Washington Hilton, but the possible consequences of his wounded pride at Obama’s previous mockery will be hard to ignore.

Though they refused to speculate on its content, those involved behind the scenes for Obama’s final speech to this supposedly light-hearted dinner were unrepentant in the face of suggestions that Obama’s previous humiliation of Trump at the 2011 dinner may have helped galvanise him to run for the White House.

“Usually you hear of a professional politician who becomes the butt of jokes, not the other way around,” said one senior adviser in response to the disputed theory about what motivated Trump to run.



But Democrats are itching to step up the process of ridiculing the likely Republican nominee and see Obama’s humour as a potent political weapon – something those around him acknowledge has become sharply honed over the course of seven such dinners.



“The president has a delivery that lets the audience know that he too finds the jokes funny, which adds to the humor and gives the audience permission to laugh at even the more provocative lines,” said the adviser. “And he has the will and the confidence to go for it: more sophisticated jokes, jokes that rely on tone.”



The tone for Trump was first set at withering in 2011, three days after Obama was forced to publish his birth certificate in response to repeated claims, led by the billionaire celebrity, that this historic first African American president was actually born in Kenya, not Hawaii.



“My fellow Americans,” emphasised Obama, in his first words of the night, before showing a clip from the Lion King that he joked was actually his birth video.



“No one is happier, no one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter to rest than the Donald,” he continued in a now-infamous series of put-downs. “And that’s because he can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter – like, did we fake the moon landing? What really happened in Roswell? And where are Biggie and Tupac?”



Though Trump nodded and smiled, it got worse as Obama drily eviscerated his puffed-up status as a serious public figure.



“But all kidding aside, obviously, we all know about your credentials and breadth of experience,” continued the president sarcastically. “For example – no, seriously, just recently, in an episode of Celebrity Apprentice at the steakhouse, the men’s cooking team cooking did not impress the judges from Omaha Steaks. And there was a lot of blame to go around. But you, Mr Trump, recognised that the real problem was a lack of leadership. And so ultimately, you didn’t blame Lil’ Jon or Meatloaf. You fired Gary Busey. And these are the kind of decisions that would keep me up at night. Well handled, sir. Well handled.”

Trump was later to claim that he found the presidential attention flattering, but a follow-up roast by the night’s professional comedian Seth Meyers rankled visibly and arguably set the tone for an 2016 election cycle driven by hatred of a snobby metropolitan elite holding its nose at America.

“I like that Trump is filthy rich but nobody told his accent. His whole life is models and gold leaf and marble columns, but he still sounds like a know-it-all down at the OTB [off-track betting site],” said Myers.



“Mr Trump may not be a good choice for president, but he would definitely make a great press secretary. How much fun would that be? ‘Kim Jong-il is a loser. His latest rally was a flop.’ ‘I feel bad for Ahmadinejad. The man wears a windbreaker. He has no class. I on the other hand sell my own line of ties. You can find them at Macy’s in the flammable section.’”

There were more digs at Trump to come in Obama’s 2012 and 2015 speeches to the dinner, and continued references to the birther row in 2013 and 2014, but if he does return to the subject this year, it is likely to take a subtler form than what some might view as class-baiting by Myers.



“It all comes down to whether the president finds something funny,” said the adviser familiar with the long process of vetting likely jokes. “The good news is: the president knows what’s funny. The president has the chops – great instincts, great delivery.”



It is a process carried out with the help of regular White House speechwriters and independent comedy specialists, such as Daily Show writer Kevin Bleyer, who pore over material to walk the line between entertaining the audience and maintaining the self-deprecating traditions of the event.

But the administration’s view of Trump is not that subtle. This week White House press secretary ridiculed him for not knowing how to pronounce Tanzania.

And Obama’s speeches to “nerd prom”, as the correspondents dinner is known in Washington, have seen him use the bully pulpit to become noticeably more bullying in recent years.



A wounded-looking Senate majority leader posted a lonely picture of himself at the bar after Obama teased in 2013 “why don’t you get a drink with Mitch McConnell?” when responding to critics who urged him to socialise more with Republicans in Congress.



The president’s first speech, in 2009, was more anodyne. Much of his set consisted of jokes about political friends and staffers, reminding people that then White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel had a filthy mouth, and comparing Joe Biden to the family’s new, cuddly and loyal dog Bo.



Cabinet members and senior advisers weren’t exempt: “We’ve also begun to change the culture in Washington, we’ve even made the White House a place where people can learn and can grow. Just recently, Larry Summers asked if he could chair the White House Council on Women and Girls,” Obama said to groans from the audience, who undoubtedly remembered the time in 2005 that Summers said there were fewer women in the sciences because of innate biological differences.



“These days, [Hillary Clinton and I] could not be closer. In fact, the second she got back from Mexico” – where, in March and April 2009, a deadly flu pandemic was raging – “she pulled me into a hug and gave me a big kiss, told me I’d better get down there myself, which I really appreciated. It was nice,” he later added, to knowing laughs.



And perhaps the most barbed partisan taunt was against the famously perma-tanned House speaker John Boehner. (“He is a person of colour, although not a colour that appears in the natural world. Whazzup, John?”) and a callout to then Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele (“Michael, for the last time, the Republican party does not qualify for a bailout. Rush Limbaugh does not count as a troubled asset, I’m sorry.”)



In 2010, though, Obama felt comfortable enough to let a little loose on a theme that would come to be leitmotif of this weaponised political comedy.



He referenced, as presidents always do, his falling approval ratings, but noted a bright side: “I happen to know that my approval ratings are still very high in the country of my birth.” He didn’t stop with the birth references. Starting off in praise of Michelle Obama, he took a bit of a side tour: “There are few things in life that are harder to find and more important to keep than love. Well, love and a birth certificate.”

In 2013, it became: “These days I look in the mirror and admit, I am not the strapping young Muslim socialist I used to be.”

And by 2015, it was clear he was past caring what anyone thought on the night “when Washington celebrates itself”.



“Barack Obama is out of fucks,” flashed the headline during an introductory video, before a skit that underlined the point that even presidents curse.



“After the midterm elections my advisers asked me: Mr President, do you have a bucket list? Well I have something which rhymes with bucket list,” he began, before warming up on some easy targets.



“Dick Cheney thinks I’m the worst president of his lifetime, which is interesting because I think Dick Cheney is the worst president of my lifetime,” he told the sea of watching media and celebrities, wiping their eyes as they laughed at most of his jokes. “Michele Bachmann predicted I would bring about the biblical end of days. Now that’s a legacy.”

And this time, the rivals to succeed him on both sides of the aisle received a rather more pointed roasting.

“I have one friend. Just a few weeks ago she was making millions of dollars a year and she is now living out of a van in Iowa,” he said of Clinton.

Referring to the Koch brothers’ projected spending in favour of the next Republican candidate, he said: “A billion dollars! From just two guys! Is it just me, or does that feel a little excessive? That’s almost insulting to the candidates.

In a classic Obama taunt, ostensibly self-deprecating but politically, anything but, he added: “The Koch brothers think they need to spend a billion dollars to get folks to like one of these people. It’s gotta hurt their feelings a little bit. And look, I know I raised a lot of money too. But in all fairness, my middle name is Hussein? What’s their excuse?”