William Petroski

bpetrosk@dmreg.com

Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are locked in a dead heat in Iowa for the 2016 presidential race, according to a new poll released Monday.

The survey by Simpson College and RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm, showed Trump with 40 percent; Clinton, 39 percent; Libertarian Gary Johnson, 10 percent; Green Party candidate Jill Stein; 3 percent; and 8 percent, undecided. The difference between Trump and Clinton is within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus 3 percent.

If November's general election were held only between the two leading candidates, Trump would receive 43 percent and Clinton 42 percent.

The poll included 1,054 interviews with Iowa voters conducted Sept. 6-8 via automated phone and internet surveys.

Iowa is considered a battleground state in the presidential election, and Trump and Clinton both have both placed a priority on winning Iowa's six electoral votes.

“This poll shows that both Trump and Clinton have a loyal, dug-in base of support showing little movement, even when Iowa voters are given an alternative candidate from which to choose,” said Kedron Bardwell, chairman of Simpson’s political science department. “The campaigns of both Trump and Clinton have even more reason to ratchet up their ground games to make sure the votes are there on election day.”

Negative views are clearly a factor in the presidential campaign in Iowa, the poll shows. While 57 percent say they are voting “for” their candidate, 41 percent are turning out to vote “against” a candidate.

The poll also showed 44 percent of Iowa men favored Trump compared with 37 percent of Iowa women. Clinton was supported by 34 percent of Iowa men compared with 43 percent of Iowa women. In addition, Iowa evangelicals were far more likely to support Trump than Clinton, favoring him by a 56 percent to 25 percent margin.

Meanwhile, Trump was supported by 36 percent of Iowans who had attended college compared with 42 percent for Clinton and 13 percent for Johnson.

Trump is scheduled to return to Iowa for a campaign rally at 7 Flags Events Center in Clive at noon Tuesday, followed by a private fundraiser at a West Des Moines restaurant. The billionaire businessman spoke in Des Moines at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in late August at U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst's Roast and Ride. Meanwhile, Clinton campaigned on Labor Day on the Illinois side of the Quad Cities at an event attended by many Iowa Democrats and union activists from Davenport and Bettendorf.

An Iowa poll released Sept. 2 by Emerson College had found Trump leading Clinton 44 percent to 39 percent with Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 1 percent. Eight percent were undecided.