NEW DELHI: This year’s monsoon is likely to end up ‘below normal’ but a fairly good rainfall distribution may still favour a good kharif crop, as per the India Meteorological Department ’s update on Friday that has forecast 95% rains in August and September as compared to the long period average (LPA).The national weather forecaster said the “scenario of favourable distribution of rainfall is expected to continue” for the rest of the monsoon season which will “remain favourable for agricultural operations”. On the back of good rains in the past week in the paddy-growing areas of UP and Bihar , the total sown area under kharif on Friday exceeded the normal for the corresponding week by 1.4%.IMD said August is likely to get rains at 96% of LPA, two percentage points more than what the agency had forecast earlier. The forecast has a 9% margin of error. This implies that IMD expects 93% rainfall in September, and 95% for the entire season, which would put this year’s monsoon in below-normal range (90%-96%).“You may infer it (below-normal monsoon for the season), but it is difficult to say anything at this juncture. With the +/-8% model error for the two-month forecast, it may swing to either side. We cannot go beyond what we had predicted earlier for the season (97% of the LPA) at this juncture,” Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra, additional director general of IMD, told TOI.The monsoon is in a weak phase at the moment but east and northeastern states are likely to get “normal to above normal” till August 8, IMD’s forecast said. In the following (till August 15), “above normal” rainfall is predicted for east, northwest and extreme south Peninsula during 9-15 August period.