The University of California would raise student tuition by at least 8 percent - or as much as 16 percent - every year through 2016 under a plan that UC leaders will propose to the regents Thursday in San Francisco.

Basic tuition could top $22,000 in just four years, not including other mandatory fees, books, room and board, if the regents adopt the idea at their November meeting as part of a multiyear budget plan. Undergraduate tuition is currently $12,192.

UC officials say the hikes will help cover $2.5 billion in additional funds the university needs to pay its bills and grow enrollment over the next four years.

"A bold new approach is necessary to save the university from an irreversible decline into mediocrity," Executive Vice President Nathan Brostrom and Vice President Patrick Lenz wrote in their proposal to the regents.

They said the plan will bring predictability to the wild ride of UC tuition hikes, which have occurred sometimes twice a year and are often accompanied by angry student protests.

State funding

But the size of the new annual increases would depend entirely on how much more money the state is able to give UC each year, if any. This year, for example, California reduced its allocation to UC by $650 million, and it expects to withhold even more money next winter unless the state's revenue picture improves.

The new plan would mirror a familiar scenario: As state funding has plunged, student funding has risen. For the first time this year, UC gets more money from student tuition and fees than from the state - $2.8 billion vs. $2.4 billion, a shift that lends credibility to critics' claims that the storied public university is gradually privatizing.

UC officials say they have had "exploratory discussions" with the state Department of Finance about the possibility of some sort of multiyear funding agreement.

Under UC's proposal to the Board of Regents, tuition would rise no more than 8 percent in a year if the state also gave an 8 percent increase. But if the state gave, say, 4 percent, tuition would grow 12 percent. If the state gave nothing, tuition would increase by the full 16 percent.

If the regents approve the plan, UC expects to approach the state to negotiate a formal funding agreement.

"I don't believe our state is in a position to make those kinds of guarantees," said Claudia Magaña, president of the UC Students Association and a student at UC Santa Cruz. "They probably won't say it publicly, but this kind of agreement would take the pressure off of the state" because they could count on students as a guaranteed funding source.

Magaña said that the state might be in a better position to fund the university system if lawmakers could agree to raise state revenues; students have endorsed an oil drilling tax, for example.

Unreliable partner

UC leaders know what Magaña is talking about. Rare is the regents meeting when at least one board member or UC President Mark Yudof himself doesn't lament that the "state is an unreliable partner."

It's a reference to lawmakers failing to live up to previous multiyear budget agreements, or "compacts," with UC.

And yet, UC hopes to try again, beginning with its own regents-approved plan.

"A multiyear UC funding plan would establish a framework for negotiations with the governor and the state Legislature toward a multiyear commitment from the state," said UC's Lenz. "Such a commitment would enable both UC and the families of students to plan for the next several years.

"While any pact must be mutually negotiated, we envision a four-part solution."

He said those would include dependable money from the state for higher education, administrative efficiencies, fundraising, and tuition increases tied to state funding levels.