As cabinet ministers head back to their ridings this summer, a senior government official says they can be secure in the knowledge that they won't be shuffled out of their job before Parliament resumes sitting this fall.

Despite rumours of prorogation as the Liberal government nears the midway point of its mandate, the official says there are no plans to shake up the front benches this summer.

"No. Not at all. As in zero chance," said the official, who spoke to CBC News on a not for attribution basis.

The official shot down speculation that a shuffle was coming, and dismissed rumours that top ministers — such as Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan — could be moved due to poor performance or controversies.

"All the major posts are doing well, and they have a lot left to do," the official said.

Performance aside, a key factor in keeping the current cabinet roster is the delicate state of Canada-U.S. relations. The surprise election of Donald Trump led to the most recent cabinet shuffle in January, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reoriented his government to deal with the unpredictable president who has threatened to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Among other moves, the January shuffle saw Chrystia Freeland take over as foreign affairs minister from the international trade post, with Stéphane Dion departing for Europe to be ambassador to Germany and special envoy to the EU.

The prime minister shuffled his cabinet in January as a response to the surprise election of Donald Trump. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

Since then, a number of ministers have visited Washington, as well as state houses and city halls throughout the United States, to build a coalition of supporters for the free trade agreement. Top cabinet ministers have also been working to forge close relationships with their counterparts in the Trump administration to ensure the Canadian perspective is understood at the highest levels of power in Washington.

'This is not the time to shake that up too much'

That campaign in still in its early stages — Trump hasn't even been in office for six months — so making sure that effort isn't disrupted is "definitely" a factor in holding off on a shuffle, the official said.

That strategy is paying off, according to one observer.

"I think the Trudeau government is managing the relationship with the new U.S. administration very well," said Laura Dawson, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington, D.C.

Dawson said maintaining consistency in that Canada-U.S. dynamic at this point is key. She said any cabinet changes should be incremental, and not disrupt the major portfolios.

"Their American counterparts are getting to know them and trust them," Dawson said. "This is not the time to shake that up too much."

Laura Dawson of the D.C.-based Wilson Centre says the Trudeau government is managing its relationship with the Trump administration well and 'this is not the time to shake that up.' (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

David Coletto, CEO of polling firm Abacus Data, said he sees nothing in public opinion polls to suggest a cabinet shuffle is necessary at this point, despite a slight drop in support for the Liberals.

"I'm not sure a few polls that show voter intention is dropping is enough for [the government] to change course," Coletto said. "[A shuffle] would then confirm that something's wrong."

Coletto said the biggest vulnerability for the government right now is failing to meet some of the expectations Liberals have set — especially after abandoning key promises on issues such as electoral reform.

"I think they are getting to the point now that the excuse 'we are working on it' isn't going to work as much," he said.

But Coletto said Trump is dominating the political conversation in Canada. How well the government manages that challenge is the yardstick it will be measured by, he said, which means a decision to stand pat on cabinet makeup makes sense.

"They need to demonstrate to Canadians that they are the most competent choice when dealing with Trump and the Canada-U.S. file," Coletto said. "They can't be outflanked on that by the Conservatives."

Another factor is uncertainty over the threat to the Liberals' left flank. The NDP doesn't pick a new leader until the fall.

"Without knowing what the NDP is going to put on the table — why change?" he said.

Foote a factor

The caveat in all this is the future of Newfoundland MP Judy Foote, who took a leave of absence from cabinet, where she served as minister of public services and procurement, in April for personal and family reasons.

A source close to Foote initially said that she was likely to stay on leave until June, but the senior government official said this week that could extend until the end of the summer.

But even if Foote were to retire or not return to cabinet, the official said that would most likely lead to a "one-in, one-out thing" rather than a full-blown shuffle.