MONTREAL CANADIENS: THREE BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

Each season there are questions to be answered in terms of who will perform as expected, who may have over-performed, but the thing we all love to wonder about the most is who will breakout. To me, a breakout candidate can’t have done it before. That’s why I’m leaving Alexander Semin off this list. He already has 3 seasons with more than 30 goals and one 40 goal season, so to call him a break out candidate doesn’t make much sense. Instead, I’ll focus on three players that haven’t achieved what their respective talents indicate they’re capable of. Here they are, in no certain order.

May 7, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Montreal Canadiens center(81) shoots as Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) defends during the second period in game four of the second round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

LARS ELLER

Points last 3 seasons:

30 points in 46 GP in 2012-13

26 points in 77 GP in 2013-14

27 points in 77 GP in 2014-15

At 26 years old, you would think we would have seen at least one season of more than 30 points from such a talented forward. There’s no doubting that the talent is in there to break out, but for many reasons we’ll get into, he hasn’t been able to make good on his offensive talents.

One of the reasons Eller has been unable to break the 30 point mark may be that he has lacked the line mates to support him offensively. Already playing on an offensively challenged team (20th in GF last season), he is forced to play with line mates that have the role of shutting down the opposing team’s top lines.

Guy ! Guy ! Guy !

As we saw happen when Guy Carbonneau, a QMJHL scoring champion with 182 points in 1979-80, was handed such a role with the Habs, it’s likely to drain your offensive output. Thankfully for Carbonneau he played at a time when scoring was more easy to come by and so he reached the top 50s a few times. However, in today’s game, there’s little doubt that playing on the third line isn’t conducive to a 50 point season.

Along with playing on the third line, another reason he has been low on the points scale is his playing time under Michel Therrien, his strained relationship with him, and the lack of Power Play time that has resulted from these issues. With Craig Ramsey coming on board as an adviser, I expect this to change a little. But, the bigger reason I expect a break out from Lars Eller is as follows:

HE WILL PLAY WITH MORE OFFENSIVELY TALENTED TEAM MATES

Now than Brandon Prust has been traded and Alexander Semin and Zack Kassian have been brought in, I expect the lines to be more balanced offensively. If we expect the top line to remain as Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty, and Brendan Gallagher, the second line may include David Desharnais between Alex Galchenyuk and Alexander Semin. This leaves the newly acquired Kassian to join Eller on the third line, possibly joined by Devante Smith-Pelly.

If you provide Eller with two big, strong wingers, I believe he’ll get the space he needs to break out as a scorer. There’s no reason that he can’t reach the 45 to 55 point mark if this is the case. He displayed great potential for such a role in 2012-13 when a pro-rated points total for an 82 game season would have given him a total of 53 points. If that’s not an indication of what he’s capable of, I don’t know what is.

Also, if Desharnais struggles and doesn’t support Semin as well as the Habs expect, Eller could get the call to centre the 2nd line. To me, better line mates and a possible promotion to the 2nd line in-season make him a very good break out candidate.

Next up, Alex Galchenyuk.