NEW TAIPEI CITY, Taiwan -- Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen may be the odds-on favorite to win a second term in the Jan. 11 election, but her ruling Democratic Progressive Party faces a bigger struggle to retain control of the legislative yuan.

Candidates running for Tsai's China-skeptic DPP in the parliamentary race face stiff opposition, not only from the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang but also from "third-force" independent and small-party aspirants.

While the DPP is likely to remain the biggest party, Tsai -- should she retain the presidency -- will need her party to hold on to its majority in parliament to push her agenda forward. This includes further reducing the island's economic and political dependence on Beijing, and promoting issues such as LGBT rights and increasing renewable energy capacity as she seeks to phase out the island's nuclear power plants.

The DPP currently holds 68 out of 113 seats in the legislature, while the Kuomintang has 35. Eight seats are held by two smaller parties and the remaining two by independents.

Voters in the legislative election will cast two ballots, one for their district's lawmaker and a proportional representation vote for a party, with candidates selected from party lists. Only parties that receive more than 5% of the ballots in the proportional representation vote will be allotted seats from the party lists.

Some 410 district lawmaker candidates have registered to compete for 73 seats in the parliamentary election. A record 217 candidates proposed on 19 party lists will compete for 34 seats in the proportional representation section.

Among the parties, the latest Apple Daily poll, published on Dec. 23, put the DPP in the lead with 32.1%; followed by the Kuomintang, with 20.4%; the Taiwan People's Party, with 8.4%; the New Power Party, with 7.2%; and the People's First Party, with 4.6%.

"There is a big chance the two major parties may not win a majority," said Eric Yu Chen-hua, an associate professor at National Chengchi University.

Yu said he expects up to 10 of the 113 seats to go to small parties, which would prevent either the DPP or the Kuomintang from winning a majority. "The DPP did not perform well in the last four years and the Kuomintang is weak," Yu said. "This gives room for third parties to garner some protest votes," or force the DPP to form a coalition.

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks in Taichung, Taiwan, on Dec. 15. (photo by Ken Kobayashi)

A number of these young third-force candidates gathered at a temple that honors a groundskeeper god in New Taipei city on a Saturday afternoon earlier this month. They were there to receive the endorsements of Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, a rising political star who recently formed the Taiwan People's Party, and Foxconn's billionaire founder Terry Gou.

Flanked by Ko and Gou was Lee Chin-ying, a 34-year-old independent who is running in the Tucheng district, where Foxconn's headquarters is located. "We hope the third force can maximize this opportunity so people can have other choices and voices," he told a crowd of about 100 people.

Wu Da-wei, 35, a candidate for Ko's new Taiwan People's Party, told the Nikkei Asian Review that Taiwan is waiting for a new, younger force that does not belong to traditional parties.

"I have found that many voters -- even if they are voting for Tsai Ing-wen from the DPP or Han Kuo-yu from the Kuomintang for president -- plan to diversify their votes for lawmakers to different parties," he said.

A 35-year-old resident of the southern Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung, where Han is mayor, backed up the claim of the young contender.

Speaking to Nikkei at a Dec. 21 rally in the city against Han, a person surnamed Chen said: "I will vote for Tsai, but in the party vote I will give a chance to smaller parties... I think it's good to have more different voices [in the legislature]."

Even DPP Chairman Chairman Cho Jung-tai said it would be harder for his party to achieve a majority in the legislature than to win the presidential race.

Kuomintang presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu speaks at a rally in Taichung, Taiwan, on Dec. 13. (Photo by Ken Kobayashi)

The legislative election is also seen as a stepping stone for the next presidential election for Guo and Ko, who are endorsing third-force candidates to extend their influence into the legislature.

Ko's Taiwan People's Party portrays itself as "the third option," in addition to the DPP and Kuomintang, and allows members of other parties to join its ranks. It has been vague, but it is less hostile toward Beijing than the DPP, with Ko having said that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait "belong to one family."

Political observers predict Ko's party will become the third-largest grouping in the legislature, but see it as a "one man party" without a clear policy direction.

"The two biggest Taiwanese parties are poles apart in their attitude toward China and cross-strait relations, so it should be more healthy for Taiwan to have two other smaller parties to balance that," Hung Yaonan, chairperson of Taiwan Asian Network for Free Elections, told Nikkei. "We think the Taiwan People Party's strategy to promote the third force is effective... but it still lacks core values and policies."

While it is clear that China is a key factor in swinging voter sentiment toward the DPP, which presents itself as the defender of Taiwan's young democracy, National Chengchi University's Yu said the Kuomintang has been its own worst enemy in the run-up to the poll.

"Since 2016, the Kuomintang has not consolidated its power base; it did not generate new leaders; and it had no new strategy to tackle cross-strait relations," Yu said.

The Kuomintang also stacked its party list for the legislature with pro-unification candidates, including a retired general with very close links to Beijing. That is likely to be unpopular with voters, among whom support for unification has to fallen to around 10.4%, according to National Chengchi University Election Study Center data released in mid-2019.

Even so, William Tseng, the Kuomintang's legislative caucus whip, said the party believes it has a chance to win a parliamentary majority, but added it is also aware of small-party momentum.

"Our forecast is the third parties could get between five to 10 seats combined... If they get 10 seats, that means neither we nor the DPP will get a majority in the legislature," Tseng told Nikkei.