Manchester City shattered all expectations in the Premier League last year, but when it comes to European football Pep Guardiola is still determined to reduce them.

By most measures City should be close to being the favourites for the Champions League. Having won the Premier League so comprehensively last year, having such a strong squad, a stable club and a manager who has won it twice before should count for a lot. But – in public at least – Guardiola is not having it.

You could point out that Real Madrid have lost their manager and their top player, that Barcelona are in poor form, that PSG are as enigmatic and untested as ever, that Bayern Munich have an untested coach now, that Liverpool may be focusing on the league instead, or that Manchester United are heading for a cliff edge.

Champions League week two goals Show all 24 1 /24 Champions League week two goals Champions League week two goals Hoffenheim 1-0 Manchester City, Ishak Belfodil Manchester City were caught napping and Ishak Belfodil put the home side ahead within a minute AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals Hoffenheim 1-1 Manchester City, Sergio Aguero Pep Guardiola's side wasted no time in getting themselves back into the game and equalised in the eight minute through Sergio Aguero Getty Champions League week two goals Hoffenheim 1-2 Manchester City, David Silva Manchester City clinched the win through David Silva's late strike AFP/Getty Champions League week two goals Lyon 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk, Moraes Group F REUTERS Champions League week two goals Lyon 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk, Moraes Group F AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals Lyon 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk, Moussa Dembele Group F AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals Lyon 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk, Leo Dubois Group F AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals Manchester United 0-0 Valencia Group H REUTERS Champions League week two goals Juventus 1-0 Young Boys, Paulo Dybala Ronaldo who? Paulo Dybala quickly opened the scoring for Juventus against Young Boys. Group H Getty Images Champions League week two goals Juventus 2-0 Young Boys Paulo Dybala added a second in the first half to double Juventus' lead. Group H Getty Images Champions League week two goals Juventus 3-0 Young Boys Paulo Dybala rounded off a perfect night with his third goal as Juventus cruised to victory. Group H AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals CSKA Moscow 1-0 Real Madrid, Nikola Vlasic Group G AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals Roma 1-0 Viktoria Plzen, Edin Dzeko Group G EPA Champions League week two goals Roma 2-0 Viktoria Plzen, Edin Dzeko Group G AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals Roma 3-0 Viktoria Plzen, Cengiz Under Group G EPA Champions League week two goals Roma 4-0 Viktoria Plzen, Justin Kluivert Group G Getty Images Champions League week two goals Roma 5-0 Viktoria Plzen, Edin Dzeko Group G AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals Bayern Munich 1-0 Ajax, Mats Hummels Group E AP Champions League week two goals Bayern Munich 1-1 Ajax, Noussair Mazraoui Group E AP Champions League week two goals AEK Athens 0-1 Benfica, Haris Seferovic Group E AFP/Getty Images Champions League week two goals AEK Athens 0-2 Benfica, Alex Grimaldo Group E REUTERS Champions League week two goals AEK Athens 1-2 Benfica, Viktor Klonaridis Group E AP Champions League week two goals AEK Athens 2-2 Benfica, Viktor Klonaridis Group E REUTERS Champions League week two goals AEK Athens 2-3 Benfica, Alfa Semedo Group E REUTERS

Guardiola would never agree. For him, Manchester City’s lack of European history means that his team will never be as likely to win this competition this year as one of the less strong, but more established sides. “We are Manchester City, we don’t have the history behind us,” he said. “That is why I am surprised when people say ‘Manchester City are going to win, fantastic.’ OK, thanks, appreciated. But it’s not the truth. We are, believe me, a step below the history of Liverpool, the Spanish teams, Bayern, Juventus or Milan.”

That is why Guardiola is so determined that even the smallest progress this year – even the last-16 – would be seen as a “huge success” for the club. Even though City got to the quarter-finals last year. Even though they have Sergio Aguero, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Guardiola himself.

“I said many times: the best success is one semi-final [in 2016], the second best success is one quarter-final [in 2018]. Try to reach the ‘eighth-final’ [last-16], and when that happens in the last-16 for Manchester City, it’s a huge success. People say: ‘no, you go out at the quarters or semi, it’s a disaster.’ But for us it’s a huge success to get to the last-16! Every time you can do it, learn and improve for the club. The way you have to fight against all circumstances. That is why today is one of the happiest days I live in this club. Because it’s going to help us for the future.”

It was Guardiola at his most passionate. But you have to ask whether he really believes it. Guardiola is obsessed by winning, and by winning the Champions League. He knows how important it is to win the most prestigious tournament of them all. He won it in his first and third years coaching senior football but it has now been seven years since he was even back in the final. The fact that he lost three semi-finals at Bayern Munich is held against him, and he knows that too.

This is Guardiola’s third year at City and while he is signed up to 2021, this could well be City’s peak season under him. Barcelona were better in his third year than his fourth, remember. Fernandinho is 33, David Silva is 32, Sergio Aguero is 30, and none of those players will be replaced by anyone nearly as good. So it is reasonable to wonder, even now, at the start of October, with City two games into their campaign, whether this could be their best shot at old big ears.