NEW DELHI: The 2019 poll battle has begun with the Election Commission announcing a seven-phase poll schedule from April 11 to May 19, culminating in the results on May 23. The big question is: who would form the government this time? While Modi is seeking a second term and pitching for a majority mandate, his opponents are attacking him for encouraging a culture of majoritarianism and failing to create employment and contain a crisis in agriculture due to low prices. The polls would be a stern test for Rahul too. TOI does a Swot analysis. Here's a look.

NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (NDA)

STRENGTH

PM Modi is seen as decisive leader. Airstrike against Pakistan boosted his strong image and BJP is looking to turn the poll into a presidential-type contest. He has strong pro-poor, anti-graft credentials. Amit Shah’s organisational skills are formidable.

WEAKNESS

SP-BSP and Congress-JD(S) alliances in UP and Karnataka pose a significant political challenge. Farm distress, jobs, GST’s teething troubles, hostility of minority communities, and sullenness among an influential section of dalits could be weak spots for BJP.

OPPORTUNITY

BJP can pit “national” issues such as 7% growth, tax reforms, welfare schemes, and handling of difficult neighbours against Rahul Gandhi’s inexperience and regional character of leaders like Mamata. Can expect good returns on its ‘stability’ card.

THREAT

Keyman risk of campaign rests heavily on Modi’s shoulders. BJP could face saturation in states it swept in 2014; breaking new ground may not be easy. BJP fighting ‘neutral’ parties like BJD, TRS, YSRCP threatens to make it BJP vs rest.

UNITED PROGRESSIVE ALLIANCE (UPA)

STRENGTH

After its abysmally all-time low of 44 LS seats, Congress can only improve. Its recent success in heartland states dents BJP’s ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ slogan. It has sorted succession issues and Rahul Gandhi is the undisputed leader. The party is willing to be part of opposition alliances and not stake claim to PM’s post.

WEAKNESS

Congress campaign is largely negative, attacking BJP on Rafale, intolerance, farm distress, jobs and now questioning airstrikes on Pakistan. Corruption allegations remain weak; especially because of memories of UPA scams, and it has not framed any ‘acche din’ type of narrative that won Modi the 2014 poll.

OPPORTUNITY

Many central schemes are still works in progress, allowing Congress to use populist promises like loan waivers and job dole to win recent assembly polls. Also, some of BJP’s huge contingent of sitting MPs could suffer from anti-incumbency.

THREAT

Modi’s tough response to Pakistan’s export of terror could make his call for a majority govt more attractive. Congress has gambled on Priyanka Gandhi , but Robert Vadra and his cases are a drag. Congress' exclusion from SP-BSP tie-up weakens its case for leading a coalition.

THIRD FRONT

STRENGTH

Regional parties like TMC, SP, BSP, DMK and YSRCP are seen to be strong on their respective home turfs, and pose a stronger challenge to BJP than Congress in several states. Winning a chunk of seats in big states at the expense of BJP and Congress would make them contenders for leading the next govt in a hung House.

WEAKNESS

Lacks an undisputed leader for the entire bloc. Nor does it have a single platform since the various constituents follow different tacks to take on each

other or the Congress in states like Bengal, Delhi, Odisha, AP, Telangana , Kerala and TN. Decline of the Left and Congress in the north-east has allowed BJP to establish a strong foothold.

OPPORTUNITY

Despite its 3 recent state wins, Cong is not the prime opposition force. And while BJP has grown to No. 2 status in many states, it is yet to topple any of the regional incumbents. This could create space for regional parties to make a postpoll claim to lead the govt.

THREAT

A patchwork coalition with regional parties calling shots could worry voters – and may prove rickety. Framing a common programme has proven difficult. Competing PM aspirations may not inspire confidence about the front’s stability Cong’s exclusion from SP-BSP tie-up weakens its case for leading a coalition.

