Joey Garrison

jgarrison@tennessean.com

A new Vanderbilt University poll on the presidential race in Tennessee raised eyebrows by showing Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by just 2 percentage points in historically blue Nashville.

But view with caution. The political scientist team that oversaw the poll says not to put much stock in this particular subset, noting that the survey was designed as a statewide, not a local, snapshot.

Vanderbilt’s poll, which found Trump ahead of Clinton in Tennessee by a sizable 11 percentage points, reported not surprising big leads for Trump in East Tennessee and Middle Tennessee suburban and rural counties, and an equally not surprising lead for Clinton in West Tennessee, which includes the Democratic stronghold of Memphis.

But the same phone survey also found Clinton beating Trump by a margin of only 40 percent to 38 percent in Nashville — within the poll’s margin of error.

This would mark a shockingly sharp break from the city’s recent and historic voting trends.

Democratic President Barack Obama won 60 percent of voters in blue-leaning Nashville in the two most recent presidential elections, eclipsing Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney by 20 points each in Davidson County. This was despite Republicans carrying Tennessee by nearly 20 percentage points both in both 2012 and 2008.

A two-point lead for Clinton over Trump in Nashville would be enough to terrify local Democrats, who have suffered massive losses at the state legislature level during recent election cycles.

In fact, some Tennessee Democratic candidates — including District 20 state Senate candidate Erin Coleman, who is running against incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Dickerson — are hoping to exploit a perceived unpopularity of Trump in suburban and urban areas to help their election chances.

But John Geer, a political professor at Vanderbilt University and co-director of the poll, said that despite the inclusion of four regional breakdowns, the poll of 1,000 registered voters in Tennessee wasn’t designed to accurately measure Nashville.

“The data suggests it's really close (in Nashville), but (Clinton is) going to win Davidson County comfortably at the end of the day,” Geer said. “I would be willing to bet on that.

“This is a state-based survey,” he said. “This poll is not designed to be representative of the city, so I wouldn’t generalize that 40 percent. What I would do is jump to broad patterns: Nashville is more Democratic than the state.”

Josh Clinton, who also teaches political science at Vanderbilt and oversaw the poll with Geer, estimated that the margin of error on the geographic breakdowns of the poll is likely as high as 7 percentage points, around twice that of the 3.7 percentage point margin for statewide figures.

Hence, because of the smaller sample size that produced the Davidson County results, the Nashville numbers alone are likely not statistically significant.

Clinton, of Vanderbilt, reiterated the statewide scope of the poll as well, saying the people who were interviewed in Nashville did not necessarily reflect Nashville’s demographics.

Likewise, Geer said the poll was not meant to accurately predict how state-level candidates or other down-ballot candidates might perform based on the regional poll results.

Geer pointed to a different subset of the poll that breaks down rural, suburban and urban voters as a more predictive analysis. It found Trump up 27 percentage points among rural voters and 21 percentage points among suburban voters. The poll found Clinton ahead among urban voters, which includes all of Nashville and Memphis, by a 49 percent to 27 percent margin.

“The urban areas are very Democratic, so that’s got to be good news for the Democrats,” Geer said. “Statewide, they’re still struggling.”

Candidate choice by region in Tennessee

Nashville

Democrat Hillary Clinton: 40 percent

Republican Donald Trump: 38 percent

Libertarian Gary Johnson: 9 percent

Green Party's Jill Stein: 2 percent

Some other candidate/would not vote: 3 percent

Undecided: 6 percent

Eastern Tennessee

Democrat Hillary Clinton: 28 percent

Republican Donald Trump: 53 percent

Libertarian Gary Johnson: 7 percent

Green Party's Jill Stein: 0 percent

Some other candidate/would not vote: 4 percent

Undecided: 6 percent

Middle Tennessee, excluding Nashville

Democrat Hillary Clinton: 21 percent

Republican Donald Trump: 50 percent

Libertarian Gary Johnson: 8 percent

Green Party's Jill Stein: 3 percent

Some other candidate/would not vote: 6 percent

Undecided: 8 percent

Western Tennessee, including Memphis

Democrat Hillary Clinton: 46 percent

Republican Donald Trump: 28 percent

Libertarian Gary Johnson: 8 percent

Green Party's Jill Stein: 0 percent

Some other candidate/would not vote: 3 percent

Undecided: 10 percent

* Poll of 1,000 registered Tennessee voters, taken between Sept. 19 and Oct. 2. Margin of error +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.