The race is heating up between Gov. Scott Walker and Democratic candidate Mary Burke. Credit: Mike De Sisti / Mark Hoffman

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In a development that could draw new interest and outside money into the race for governor, Democrat Mary Burke has drawn closer to Republican incumbent Scott Walker in the latest Marquette University Law School Poll.

Among likely voters — an important measure in a lower-turnout midterm election — Walker leads 48%-45%, which is considered a statistical toss-up for the poll released on Wednesday. Among all registered voters, including those currently seen as less likely to vote in November, the two candidates were tied at 46%.

In the last poll, on March 26, Walker held a 48% to 41% lead over Burke among registered voters and in January he led 47% to 41%. The numbers on likely voters are the first this year from Marquette, so for now no comparison is possible with past polls.

Charles Franklin, director of the poll, pointed to a "noticeable shift" toward Burke but cautioned that months of heavy campaigning, relentless ads and assorted surprises await.

"This race has been a very close (one)," Franklin said. "We still have a very long way to go. The campaigns have really yet to ramp up in a very major way."

The poll also provided the latest snapshot of bitterly divided state and greater Milwaukee region that was profiled in a recent Milwaukee Journal Sentinel series.

Burke is a former executive of Trek Bicycle Corp. and was state commerce secretary under former Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle. Walker was elected in 2010 — a year when the GOP took control of the Assembly, Senate and the governor's office.

The race is just ramping up, but the poll provides a telling picture of where voters in Wisconsin currently see strengths and weaknesses for each candidate.

Walker is the candidate that Wisconsinites know best and have already formed strong feelings about — only one in 20 voters had no opinion about the governor, compared to one in two voters who have no opinion of Burke.

Walker is seen by more voters as likely to get things done and has advantages with voters seeing the state overall moving in the right direction, while also citing improvements to the state budget picture.

Burke is seen by those polled as more likely to care about people like themselves and also has an edge in that more people feel Wisconsin is lagging other states in job creation rather than leading them. She has significant experience in a private business, something that voters in the poll said was important to them.

Franklin said that turnout in November will play a key role, as will both parties' ability to mobilize voters. One figure that the Walker camp will find heartening: Among those who say they are certain to vote and are excited about voting, Walker received 50% and Burke 45%.

In a change Democrats will cheer, President Barack Obama's approval rating rose to 48% approval and 45% disapproval, up from 47% and 49%.

Since the last poll, Burke's gain was largely influenced by women and younger voters moving in her direction, according to Franklin.

Burke led Walker 49% to 41% among women voters. In March, they were tied at 44% each. And in a big change, Burke's support among voters 18-44 over Walker was 51% to 41%. In March, Walker held the advantage among younger voters, 49% to 38%.

Even though there has been little advertising, Burke is becoming more familiar to voters. In March, 59% said they didn't know enough about her, or didn't know if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion. That fell to 51% in the latest poll. In January in the same question, 70% said they didn't know enough about Burke.

Walker's favorability rating is higher than Burke's. Still, more people have an unfavorable view of the governor than favorable. Walker: 47% favorable and 48% unfavorable. Burke: 27% favorable and 22% unfavorable.

Also, Walker's job approval rating is rising slightly. In May, 49% approved of the job he was doing, compared to 46% who disapproved. In March it was split: 47% approved and 47% disapproved.

The latest poll was taken from May 15 to Sunday. The poll of 805 registered voters in Wisconsin was conducted by both cellphone and landline and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

This is the third Marquette poll in the 2014 election year.

"It is clear that voters recognize that Walker's top-down, trickle-down approach that puts big corporations and special interests ahead of hard-working Wisconsinites isn't working," said Burke campaign spokesman Joe Zepecki in a statement.

Walker spokeswoman Alleigh Marre said that the governor had a strong record on the state budget, taxes and jobs that would win with voters.

"We're confident voters want to continue moving Wisconsin forward and have no desire to return to the failed policies of the past," Marre said.

Patrick Guarasci, a Democratic strategist who does work for candidates including Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, said the poll shows that Wisconsin will have one of the most competitive governor's races in the nation, along with Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.

"Look out, because it's shaping up to be one of the hottest elections (nationally) in this election cycle," Guarasci said. "The poll confirms what insiders have been saying, this is going to be a close election."

Guarasci said the poll could help to motivate Democrats to support Burke, from volunteers and small-time donors to out-of-state groups with deep pockets.

"You want to invest your time and money when it matters," he said.

Mark Graul, a Republican strategist who ran former U.S. Rep. Mark Green's 2006 run for governor, was unimpressed with the results of one poll more than five months out from the election.

"The media should stop obsessing over polls that are many, many days before election day," Graul said.

Graul pointed out that Walker's public support has been consistent despite his turbulent time as governor and the state's extremely divided electorate.

"The governor has a very committed group of voters who are going to vote for him no matter what," Graul said.

There is also a group of Democrats committed to voting against Walker no matter what. That floor for Democratic candidates showed up in those who said they would vote for long-shot Democratic candidate and state Rep. Brett Hulsey of Madison.

The great majority of voters don't know enough to have an opinion of Hulsey, whose attempts to win publicity have included making and then reneging on a promise to hand out Ku Klux Klan hoods outside the GOP state convention. Those who do know him largely have an unfavorable impression of him, and in a primary matchup with Burke, Hulsey got just 3% of the vote.

But against Walker, Hulsey got 39% of the vote.

In other results:

■ Those surveyed perceived voter fraud to be more prevalent than what has been reported and charged in recent elections.

Twenty percent said fraud — in the form of people claiming to be someone else at a polling site — happens a "few thousand times" or more each election statewide,while 23% said it happens a "few hundred times" for each election. Twenty-one percent said it happened a "few dozen times," and 26% said that it happens "less than a dozen times" in each election.

Nonpartisan election officials say that impersonation fraud is rare, and is detected and charged in the state far less than thousands or even hundreds of times.

■ There is considerable distrust of government.

Among voters, 67% agree or strongly agree that "you really can't trust the government to do the right thing." Twenty-nine percent disagreed or strongly disagreed.

■ There is public reluctance to pay more for highway improvements.

Forty percent are willing to raise gas taxes and vehicle registration fees for highway projects, but 58% are unwilling to raise fees from those sources.

■ More people would rather see U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) run for president in 2016 than Walker.

Ryan: 38% want to see him run; 51% don't. Walker: 27% favor a run; 67% don't.