8028 (10/21) →7298 (10/24) →10584 (10/26) →9025 (10/27) →9332 (11/03) is a summary of the price movements of Bitcoin futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.

All price data were collected on 11/03 22:00

BTC/USD (BitMEX)

Bitcoin price has had a very diversified trend. In just two weeks, there have been consolidations, falls, and rises. From Figure 1-A, it can be seen that the price of Bitcoin from 10/21 to 10/22 presents a very tight consolidation. However, after 10/22 (Figure 1-B), the price began to fall loosely, with a sharp drop of about 8% on 10/23, followed by immediate strong supports. On 10/25 (Figure 1-C), Bitcoin prices began to rise sharply as Chinese President Xi Jinping made optimistic statements regarding blockchain tech. The surge was about 40% in Bitcoin price, marking the most intense change in the period. Bitcoin returned to a consolidation period after the event-driven growth (Figure 1-D).

Figure 1: BTC/USD (BitMEX) Recent trends (hourly line). Source: AIcoin.

Binance mainstream crypto trend analysis

It is evident from Table 1 that almost all the mainstream cryptocurrencies have recently risen, and from the chart of Figure 2, it can be seen that all the mainstream currencies first fell before rising, similar to the trend of Bitcoin. BCH had the most outstanding performance, showing an increase of 28.56% in the past two weeks. The cumulative rate of return (in USDT) for these cryptocurrencies in the last two weeks is as follows:

Table 1: Cumulative rate of return each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Figure 2: Cumulative rate of return for each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Market Outlook

In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has experienced major drops and rises with recent re-entry to a consolidation period. With no new or major news to shake up the price after the 40% surge, the current direction has become unclear. It is recommended that investors who plan on capturing sizable waves should reduce their fund utilization and wait for the new position and direction to establish themselves before re-entry.

Bincentive’s Selected Strategies

With Bitcoin’s fluctuating price in the past two weeks, the decline on 10/23 marked a clear indicator for most forward trending strategies to seize profits. Although the rise on 10/25 was unclear, the same strategies were still able to capture profits in the second half of the rise. A clear winner however, is “Trending Tunnel”. It has entered the market before the rise on 10/25, capturing profits in their entirety. “Trending Tunnel” has also caught the wave on 10/23, as shown below:

“Trending Tunnel” earned 6.6% in returns in October. “F2 Strategy (Mix)” and “F4 Strategy (Mix)” that include “Trending Tunnel” as a sub-strategy have also had great performances.