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Jeremy Corbyn will make a speech today where he will say he is “champing at the bit” for a general election.



The Labour leader is guilty of a bit of rhetorical licence here.



He’s very keen for an election once a no-deal has been taken off the table.



Others in the Labour Party do not share his enthusiasm.



The fear they are on course for a hammering against a Tory leader who has a clear message on Brexit and who has blunted Labour’s attack lines with his pledges to raise wages and spend money on public services.



The only thing everyone in Westminster agrees on is the next election is very difficult to call.



Labour could be denied seats by a surge in Lib Dem support or gifted Tory seats if there is a strong showing for the Brexit Party.

(Image: Sky News)





Will progressive voters be more motivated by the imperative of stopping Brexit or a desire to keep out the Tories?



And if stopping Johnson is the priority will they be able to decide who is the best candidate to defeat the Tories in a seat where they could vote, let’s say, for the Greens, Labour, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru or the Brexit Party?



A report this week by British Election Study (BES) concluded that UK politics has never been so volatile.



Loosening party loyalties means 51% of the electorate are now floating voters.



According to the BES voters are less likely to divide along left-right lines but between those who are socially conservative and those who are more liberal, with age and education the biggest determining factors in how you vote.

Labour is hoping that those who flirted with the Lib Dems or the Greens at the European elections will come back at the general election.



Traditionally, support for the minor parties has proven fragile when voters are presented with the binary choice of which party should form the next government.



This may not be the case at the next election. Labour is very worried about its prospects in Wales where its vote is being squeezed by the Welsh nationalists.



Some internal polling says Labour could lose as many as 20 seats in the principality.

(Image: Adam Gerrard / Daily Mirror)





The party could also lose a handful of seats in London to the Lib Dems. Emily Thornberry in Islington South and Neil Coyle in Bermondsey and Old Southwark are both said to be vulnerable.



In the age of increasing polarisation, the extreme position of the Lib Dems on Brexit could work to its advantage in heavily Remain voting seats and deny Labour victory in targets such as Chipping Barnet and Iain Duncan Smith’s Chingford constituency.



A glimmer of hope for Labour came in another report this week by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.



This found the election could be determined by the 2.7million swing voters on low incomes.



For them Brexit is less of a priority than living standards, opportunity and the state of their local area.



If Labour can appeal to theses voters then it could prevent a string of marginal seats from falling to the Conservatives.



But this could come down to whether they see Jeremy Corbyn as a viable candidate for Prime Minister.