: FebruaryÂ 12th,Â 2016 R for strong violence and language throughout, sexual content and graphic nudity.: Reported at $50 million: $125 million

I'm having trouble figuring out how much money this movie will make because of three factors. Firstly, it is an R-rated comic book movie. There are very few of those made and of the top 25 Comic Book Films, only one of them, 300, was rated R. If you limit it to comic book and Super Heroes, Watchmen is the biggest, but the Blade Trilogy is the most profitable. There's a reason why studios don't want to risk $100 million or more making a movie like this. The only way the filmmakers were allowed to aim for an R-rating was to write a script that could be shot with $50 million or less. Since no movie like this has been made in a decade, it is really hard to judge its chances.

Secondly, while there is a huge amount of buzz surrounding this film, a lot of it is "Internet Buzz". If "Internet Buzz" was a good way to predict a film's box office chances, then Snakes on a Plane would have been a $100 million hit. I think it has broken out into more mainstream buzz, but considering I live on the internet, that's harder for me to judge.

Finally, and this might be the biggest factor... I really want Deadpool to be a huge hit. I really like the character and think Ryan Reynolds was born to play this part. Additionally, I really want big-budget R-rated movies to come back, because there are some stories that just don't work in PG-13. (You couldn't tell a faithful adaptation of Lovecraft mythos in PG-13, for example.) However, because I really want the film to succeed, I'm worried I will subconsciously cherry-pick the data that supports what I want to have happen, while ignoring data that goes against it.

Despite this, I'm confident that Deadpool will be a hit. It could open with more than it cost to make and should have no trouble crossing $100 million domestically. If it just matches that internationally, then it will break even before it reaches the home market. $150 million isn't out of the question, while I've seen some predictions that are close to $175 million. I don't think it will get there, but if it did, it could change the way Hollywood looks at R-rated movies.