Now that the frustration and anger of last weekend's result against Naismith FC Everton has subsided a little, I've been trying to think rationally about just what in the world has happened to our beloved Chelsea this season. This time last year, pundits were talking about us potentially finishing the season undefeated, breaking wins and points tally records in the process. A few weeks into the 2014/15 season, and the question wasn't whether we'd win the league, but by just how much. José's 'little horses' and 'young, beautiful eggs' had grown up and were now fully grown stallions, ready to compete and dominate. Diego Costa and Cesc Fàbregas had brought a new, ruthless dimension to the team, John Terry was the best centre back in England again, while Eden Hazard seemed to have finally gained the consistency to become the undisputed best player in the league, strolling towards the PFA player of the year award.

However, a few months later and the all-conquering stallions are nowhere to be seen. 4 points out of a possible 15, 12 goals conceded and only 7 scored, makes this the worst start to a title defence since Blackburn in 1998 (and Chelsea's personal worst start since 1988.) Such has been the change between this year and last that it has pretty much everyone and their dog asking, "What in the world has happened to Chelsea?" The team is more or less the same, the manager is the same and yet results could not be more different. Is it really all just luck? Or is there something deeper going on? I thought I'd share some of my ideas as to what exactly is happening. Here are the 10 key factors behind our poor start:

Failures in the transfer market → Lets start at the very beginning: Chelsea did not have a good enough transfer market. Top midfield targets Paul Pogba and Koke proved unobtainable, while Everton proved that, sometimes, money really can't buy you Stones (at least not this year). Chelsea opted not to sign any plan Bs (except for the left-field signing of Papy Djilobodji) and I would be shocked if we didn't go back in for the likes of Koke and John Stones in particular next summer. On the whole, I like Chelsea's approach this year of identifying key players to take the team to the next level and not settling for anything less. Such an approach reduces the risk of wasting huge sums on temporary/unideal players and proves Chelsea are operating with a clear transfer strategy (something that can't be said of all top clubs).

→ Lets start at the very beginning: Chelsea did not have a good enough transfer market. Top midfield targets Paul Pogba and Koke proved unobtainable, while Everton proved that, sometimes, money really can't buy you Stones (at least not this year). Chelsea opted not to sign any plan Bs (except for the left-field signing of Papy Djilobodji) and I would be shocked if we didn't go back in for the likes of Koke and John Stones in particular next summer. On the whole, I like Chelsea's approach this year of identifying key players to take the team to the next level and not settling for anything less. Such an approach reduces the risk of wasting huge sums on temporary/unideal players and proves Chelsea are operating with a clear transfer strategy (something that can't be said of all top clubs). However, I'd still have liked us to make a few other moves. For one, a better back up striker than Falcao would have been useful, especially with Costa's continuing hamstring issues as well as at least a temporary strong, physical box-box midfielder to play alongside Matic. Ideally it would have been a veteran like Schwiensteiger who Loftus-Cheek could learn from for a few seasons, but even a player like Meireles, who comes in for one year to do a job before departing when more attractive long term targets become available would have given us the necessary depth that we're sorely missing now. To a certain extent, I can understand why we did to not make these moves, what with Bamford waiting in line and the likes of Ramires and Mikel who Jose seems to trust fully, backing up the pivot.

However, one move that I just cannot understand Chelsea not pursuing is that of an elite fullback already in his prime, someone in the mould of Ricardo Rodriguez. Yes, Chelsea signed Baba Rahman, but Baba is still very young and raw and is not ready to come in and displace Ivanovic immediately. Considering the signs of Ivanovic's decline have been there for a while (rewatching PSG-Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last year, I lost count of how many times Cavani skinned Ivanovic), and the need was for someone to displace him immediately, not down the line, signing Rahman over Rodriguez was an odd move in my opinion, especially considering Rodriguez is only 2 years older. Rahman might turn out to be a great signing for Chelsea later down the line, but for now he doesn't seem quite ready to come in and solve potentially Chelsea’s greatest need.

Victim of our own success → Lots of the problems Chelsea are currently facing could be seen last year but were conveniently masked by our huge dominance in the League. Ivanovic's poor positioning and lack of pace, Terry's inability to play a more proactive style consistently, Cesc's inability to control the midfield against elite physical sides, Costa's injury problems, etc could all be seen last year and, at least for the first two, I'd argue even before then. But our immense success last year, coupled with the complete ineptitude of the other top PL teams, masked a lot of these issues. Every now and then reality would hit fast and quick (the defeat at Tottenham on New Year's Day, the loss to PSG in the Champion's League) but on the whole, these were small drops in an otherwise perfectly tranquil route to Premier League (and Capital One Cup) glory. However, this year, with JT and Ivanovic a year older and our key players out of form, this veneer of perfection is coming off at an alarming pace. Pundits and the like expect us to be a perfect side, the one that topped the league all year last season, but we just aren't that team yet, nor were we last year. The transfer market was supposed to be our chance to fix those cracks before they became fully-fledged canyons, but alas, here we are.

Short pre-season → Chelsea had an uncharacteristically short preseason this year, playing only 3 games before the Community Shield, and only one more after it. To put this in perspective, last year we played 6 consecutive preseason games before our first competitive match. Preseason is a key time to improve match sharpness, fitness and intensity, all things Chelsea have been lacking this year. The lack of intensity against Everton in particular was shocking, considering how much better we looked in that regard last year. Naismith and Barkley were consistently able to get free in pockets of space between Chelsea's midfield and defence and run at the back four with relative ease. Matic in particular, so dominant last year, was woeful, completely losing Naismith's run into the box for the opening goal and getting hopelessly one-twoed in the immediate run up to the third goal. Whereas last year the entire team had made 110 tackles by this point, this year we're languishing on only 82. Hazard looks overweight and Costa seems to be missing the killer instinct that made him so lethal last year, rarely opting to shoot first time or drive at the defence like he did so often last year. This general lack of match sharpness made the club's decision to award the players with a weekend off after the opening week draw to Swansea even more peculiar. If Chelsea are to resurrect their form, we must find a way to get that intensity and energy back quickly.

Tactical ambiguity → Who can really say they know exactly what Chelsea's overarching style has been this year? Last year, Chelsea stayed compact, pressed as a unit and transitioned at pace. In attack, the front three had licence to float and interchange, looking to make the most of Costa's direct forward play, but in defence we stayed solid, defending in two clear banks of four. The whole team stepped up once possession was won and we looked to get Hazard and Costa on the ball high up the pitch as quickly as possible. This year, our tactics have been ambiguous at best. In attack, we're neither playing fast, counter attacking football or a slower, possession-based system, instead stuck somewhere in the middle, while in defence we seem to be lost in two minds over whether to sit deep or press proactively. There were remnants of Chelsea's clever, interchanging attacking play against Everton, but other than that we looked pretty directionless. Costa's direct play which characterised Chelsea's ruthlessness last year is nowhere to be seen and will need to be recovered if our fortunes are to change.

Who can really say they know exactly what Chelsea's overarching style has been this year? Last year, Chelsea stayed compact, pressed as a unit and transitioned at pace. In attack, the front three had licence to float and interchange, looking to make the most of Costa's direct forward play, but in defence we stayed solid, defending in two clear banks of four. The whole team stepped up once possession was won and we looked to get Hazard and Costa on the ball high up the pitch as quickly as possible. This year, our tactics have been ambiguous at best. In attack, we're neither playing fast, counter attacking football or a slower, possession-based system, instead stuck somewhere in the middle, while in defence we seem to be lost in two minds over whether to sit deep or press proactively. There were remnants of Chelsea's clever, interchanging attacking play against Everton, but other than that we looked pretty directionless. Costa's direct play which characterised Chelsea's ruthlessness last year is nowhere to be seen and will need to be recovered if our fortunes are to change. The midfield's inability to win the ball back with enough regularity has contributed to this tactical ambiguity. I think Mourinho's decision to play 3 central midfielders against Everton instead of the regular 2 shows he recognises this problem. Our midfield duo and wide players are currently nowhere near the level needed to consistently protect the defence. However, currently the midfielder who plays as the CAM (usually Cesc or Willian) has generally sat just ahead of the pivot, looking to press the opposition's deep midfielder. The lack of intensity and match fitness makes this a poor tactical fit for this team. Instead, I'd like to see the CAM sit back and form a true midfield five with the pivot players and wingers in defensive phases of play to effectively protect the back four, similar to what Juve did against City, while looking to make the most of Pedro and Hazard's pace on the counter.

On top of the midfield's woes, Chelsea are facing a real problem in defence. Even last year, it was clear Chelsea would need to sign a more proactive defender if we wanted to play the expansive football our attack and midfield craves. Some of you might remember this piece I wrote advocating for Chelsea to sign Mehdi Benatia (previously of A.S. Roma, now with Bayern Munich) to be that proactive defender. But alas, Chelsea did not sign a CB last year but were able to get away with it through the tactical genius of Jose Mourinho. This year, with JT a year older and Ivanovic seemingly having lost the plot all together, such tactical manoeuvrings were unlikely to be successful again and Chelsea's failure to sign a CB in the John Stones/Aymeric Laporte/Mehdi Benatia mould is finally beginning to catch up with us. In the meantime, I'd like to see what a pairing of Kurt Zouma and Ivanovic could do in the centre, flanked by Baba and Azpilicueta. Ivanovic might not have the pace to play as a fullback anymore but as a CB alongside Kurt Zouma or Gary Cahill he should be able to at least temporarily do the role we need. The problem with such a solution however, is that it leaves us very short at fullback, with only Azpilicueta and the untested Baba for the two starting positions (another reason why we should have bought Rodriguez and why we should prioritise him this January).

We're also missing Oscar a great deal. Mourinho's footballing vision at Chelsea needs a player like Oscar to facilitate the play, to orchestrate the show, to control the space in midfield, lead the press, support the striker, wide players and pivot players and transition effectively. This is the reason why Koke of Atletico Madrid would be my absolute top signing for Chelsea. He does the 'Oscar role' better than anyone in the world, dominating in all phases of play and controlling the tempo perfectly. Unlike Oscar, he has the consistency to play as an elite two-way player all year and the versatility to do it in a range of positions. However, until next summer when I full expect Chelsea to make a serious move for him, Oscar's return to the side can't come soon enough.

Tough Fixtures → Last year, Chelsea had only taken 6 points more from the corresponding fixtures. In the season where we'd topped the league from start to finish, we'd still dropped 5 points against these 5 teams. Our win at Goodison was the first in 3 seasons last year. Crystal Palace and Swansea have strengthened a lot this year and are looking likely to challenge for European places, with Palace very unlucky to concede a last minute goal against City last week. That is not to say we should be content with our points, of course not, but we need to at least view them in perspective. The Premier League is getting more and more competitive every year as record TV deals make it the world's richest by some margin. Top teams will get fewer points this year and, in the foreseeable future, I would not be surprised at all if 80 points becomes enough to win the league consistently. The fact that, despite the worst start to a season since 1988, Chelsea are still only 6 points off 2nd place, shows just how competitive the League is this year.

Key players not performing → "I go to war, you come with me." These were Diego Costa's famous first words to some of Chelsea's key players last year. It signified a willingness to take responsibility, to lead this team from the front, the kind we'd been sorely missing upfront since Drogba's exit from the club in 2012. Diego, joined by the likes of Matic, Hazard, Azpilicueta and Courtois, seemed poised and ready to take on the mantle and become this era's new leaders, the soul and spirit of the team. Last year was so easy for Chelsea. Our rivals, if you could even call them that, barely showed up and we strolled to the title. This year is a very different situation. Its the sort of situation where we'd have looked to the likes of Drogba, JT, Lampard, Cech, etc to get us out of in previous years. But this is a new era. If Diego and the others really are ready to assume this responsibility, this is the time for them to show it. I want to see that Costa who gets into the face of his opponent, who plays like a man wronged and hell-bent on destroying his enemies, who won't settle for just one goal. Pundits and rival fans might not like him but sod them. This teams needs that Costa back, the one who strikes fear into the opposition long before the ball is ever kicked. Likewise, I want to see the Matic who dominated Yaya, who towers high up in Chelsea's midfield snuffing out opposition attacks with ease and does not stop all season long. Eden Hazard, clearly Chelsea's most decisive player last year, needs to take matters into his own hands the way the Ronaldos and the Messis and the Suàrez's of this world do so often, the way he did last season, and must start performing again. These are the sort of players that can win consecutive titles, that can compete in Europe. That can build a dynasty. Who better to guide this new spine of leaders than the same man who created Chelsea's first consecutive title-winning dynasty all those years ago?

Relying on young players → Chelsea's relatively quiet transfer window has placed a lot of responsibility on our young players, especially Kurt Zouma and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. On top of these two, Chelsea elected to sign the young and raw Baba Rahman from Augsburg and the very young and very raw Robert Kenedy Jr. from Fluminense, as well as bringing back 19 year old Bertrand Traore from a successful loan spell at Chelsea B Vitesse Arnhem. Thibaut Courtois' injury also means Jamal Blackman will be our primary back up keeper for a few months now. The hope is that Kurt Zouma will cement a starting position, providing the much-needed youth and agility in the centre of our defence, while RLC will be the strong box-box midfielder to rotate with Cesc we sorely lacked last year. Both of these roles are huge for Chelsea's season and to see us putting that sort of responsibility on young players is a welcome change of pace. On top of that, Ivanovic's poor form has put huge pressure on Baba to come in and displace him immediately, while Kenedy is fast becoming our most exciting attacking midfield option off the bench. Relying on young players will always be risky as they'll often make more mistakes than their more polished, older counter parts. But staying patient with them can yield great results in the long term. Zouma has a lot to learn and will likely make more mistakes this year like the one that a least partially contributed to Naismith's first goal when he failed to sense the danger quickly enough and shut down the front post, but the immense potential is there for all to see. If Chelsea persevere with him this year, we could have an elite CB who could start for us for 10 years. Personally, I think having 5 young players was perhaps too ambitious and I would have liked to see Traore go out on loan and a more polished LB (Ricardo Rodriguez) brought in instead of Baba. That would have left us with one young player in each area of the pitch. However, this is the position we're in now and its time for us to make the most of it.

Uncertainty → For all the criticism of Mourinho's perceived lack of rotation, it's bred the sort of certainty a championship winning team needs. If players know exactly what their role in the team is in relation to others, they will be much better placed to go out and perform to their best. Poor form from Chelsea's key players, as well as a transition towards more youth across the team, has lead to a lot of uncertainty in our starting line up. Last year, we knew exactly what our most effective back 4 was, Cesc and Matic made deep midfield their home and the attacking four of Costa, Hazard, Willian and Oscar generally played when fit. Though questions were still there over Cesc's ability to control the midfield from deep against physical opposition, Ivanovic's positioning and JT's dynamism, good results meant that we had the necessary certainty throughout the team to win the title. This year, we have questions all over the team, from what our best defence and attack look like, to where Cesc should be playing, whether it be as CAM, a CM in a 433 or a CDM in a pivot pairing. The situation in defence needs to be sorted out quickly, because no successful team can have a defence that is chopping and changing every game. Once Mourinho finds a winning combination and settles on it, results should improve. But for that to happen key players need to stake their claim with more conviction. Its a bit of a catch-22, we need certainty to get better performances, but first we need better performances to get certainty. Personally, I hope José perseveres with Zouma and builds the defence around him.

Crisis of confidence → When you're winning, your confidence grows. And when your confidence grows, you're likely to continue winning. Losing is a negative cycle that Chelsea need to get out of as quickly as possible. Right now, our only priority should be to get a few consecutive wins together by all means necessary, starting with this evening in the Champion's League. They don't need to be pretty, they can be the ugliest, most anti-Football (thats what the football evangelists call it right?) thing ever, but as long as we win, we can build our confidence back up from there. Luckily, in Mourinho, Chelsea have the best manager in the world at gaining results in difficult situations. Three wins, against Maccabi, Arsenal and Walsall are exactly what this team needs to regain its confidence.

Learning how to be Champions → Eden Hazard recently did an interview where he spoke about what its like playing as the Champions, where "everyone wants to kill you." And he's right, when you're the Champions, when you're a winner, everyone wants to see you fail. Defeating the champions is a scalp every team wants. Teams plays with more intensity, prepare harder against you and will generally play better in their pursuit of beating you and being able to say that they beat the champions. Its the sort of results a team like Everton or Crystal Palace, who are unlikely to win any trophies, can hold up as a major coup at the end of their season. This is something Chelsea's young players, from Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois to Kurt Zouma and Kenedy, need to get used to quickly if they want long, successful careers at Chelsea, otherwise they might as well move to Arsenal now. Defending a title is a completely different challenge to winning it for the first time, as City found out last year when they completely regressed from the Championship form they'd shown in 2013/14 when they last won it. Luckily, Mourinho has been here before and knows what its like, and in him, Chelsea have the perfect teacher to condition this team to become perennial Champions. Its time for us to close the shell, unite behind our leader, realise that it really is us against the world now and play like the Champions we are.

Summary

Lack of intensity → Players need to get match fit quickly Tactical ambiguity → Abandon pressing, proactive football as long as the midfield looks woeful. Use a 5 man midfield bank to protect our vulnerable defence, grind out a few results and get our intensity and confidence back Encourage Costa (or Remy) to play more direct again Settle on a consistent starting team that can get results by any means necessary Buy Rodriguez and Koke as soon as possible

Those are the main factors I can think off. Of course luck will always play a role and there is some credence to the idea Chelsea have been quite unlucky this year. However, luck tends to balance itself out over the course of a season and should not play such a significant role in a League campaign as it could in, say, a cup campaign for example. If you think of any factors that could be added, please share them in the comments section.

Time to be Champions

Everyone wants to kill us. Everyone wants to see us fail. But we can't give in now, not with 90% of the season left to play. Chelsea must continue to fight to defend our title till the very end. Thoughts of settling for fourth second and going for the cups should be squashed immediately and left to North London. We are Chelsea and we need to remember that. Champions of England. We were top of the table from the very first day to the very last last season, something that's never been done before. Eden Hazard is the best player in the league, Mourinho is the best manager in the world and a few poor results don't change that. No matter how many bitter Liverpool or Utd or Arsenal fans (I would include City fans here but I don't know any) taunt or ridicule us, we need to keep our heads high and act like the Champions we are, all the way from the fans to the players. Because if there's one thing that characterises winners, that characterises this club, its that never say die attitude. That indomitable belief that everything is possible and nothing is over till its over. Until the day its mathematically impossible to win the league, everything is possible and we must continue to play like it is, starting with this evening.

Three consecutive wins are necessary to get this show back on the road. Time to be the Champions.

Carefree,

Rafi