Who is Alen Smailagić? Smailagić is an 18 year-old Serbian basketball player who was selected 4th overall by the South Bay Lakers in last year’s G-League draft. The Lakers went on to trade him to the Santa Cruz Warriors in exchange for Jemerrio Jones and the Warriors 2019 1st round pick. With that happening, Smailagić became the youngest player to ever sign a G-League deal, having turned 18 just a couple of months before the draft. Because of his age, Smailagić wasn’t NBA draft eligible for another year, so just because the Warriors took him in the G-League draft didn’t mean they owned his NBA rights. It’s risky for a team to draft a player and help develop him, knowing he can immediately be selected by a different franchise a year later. The Warriors likely realized this, and there are definitely some things pointing towards the argument they’re hiding his talent from the rest of the league. During the G-League Showcase, the Warriors sat Smailagić citing “rest reasons” due to easing him into a season with more games than he’s accustomed to. He also played the 11th fewest minutes per game (17.4) on the team despite being a top 3 or 4 player, and the 9th fewest total minutes on the season.

Now maybe the Warriors really were easing Smailagić into things, considering his basketball history before this year. He played in the U16 European Championship in 2016, but professionally only made it to Serbia’s 3rd division league and the U19 junior league. He dominated. Last year in the U19 Roda JLS, he played 19 games and averaged 21.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1.9 blocks while shooting 55 percent from the floor in only 27 MPG. He won MVP, as I’m sure you could have guessed. Then he played 10 games for Beko, a semi-pro team in in Belgrade Serbia, where Smailagić averaged 15.9 points, 5 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 2.1 blocks while only playing 24 minutes per game. He didn’t belong in those leagues, and it was painfully obvious. As you’ll see below, he was the biggest and best player on the floor at all times:

The jump from his 2017/18 competition to playing in the G-League is a massive leap, and it showed a bit at first, but the flashes of talent were always there. Santa Cruz’s third game of the year was against the Agua Caliente Clippers who run out a 3-man big rotation of Jonathan Motley, Angel Delgado, and Anthony Bennett. Most people who know those names are aware that there is some legitimate talent among that group, and they are all 24 years or older. Smailagić turned 18 exactly 83 days before this game, and all he did was score 16 points in just under 21 minutes. However, the defense was not great.

First, he gets beat on a switch and loses the shooter when he relocates after the pass. Then he digs way too deep with unnecessary help and leaves a good 3-point shooter open. Then we get another time of him getting caught too far in help and leaving a shooter. (Finding shooters was by far the biggest adjustment Smailagić needed to make.) He had a tendency to help off too far, which could be a bad habit from playing in a league where bigs are less capable shooters. This aspect did improve throughout the year, like most of his defense did.

In my opinion, Smailagić is one of the best defensive bigs in the class. Film is obviously the biggest way to see how good a prospect is defensively, but steal and block percentage is also a fine indicator. As the youngest player in G-League, Smailagić played 818 minutes and ended with a 2.4 steal percentage and a 4.8 block percentage. Lower those numbers down to 2 and 4 and these are the players who have hit that threshold in the NBA since 2010.

(via https://www.basketball-reference.com)

No, I’m not guaranteeing that Smailagić will become the defensive player that those guys listed are, and he’s likely to not even hit that threshold in the NBA, but what he’s currently doing in the G-League is extremely impressive. For reference, here are his per 40 numbers compared to some top big prospects in this draft:

Obviously these comparisons aren’t perfect, but it can give you an outline of the production Smailagić is putting up. The G-League has a shorter shot clock and faster pace, but he’s also playing against better basketball players and grown men, so it goes both ways.

Another thing we can look at is how Smailagić’s numbers compare against other players in the G-League, specifically players who have shown good things in the NBA, and for context even those who were just first round picks. It’s not a long list, and these guys haven’t carved out consistent NBA roles, but it does give you a small look at his production compared to other good players in the G-League:

The main thing you notice are the stock numbers. Smailagić is very good at help defense and being in the right place at the right time. On top of that he has quick hands and a solid timing for blocks. His efficiency isn’t at the level of the other bigs, but as you see he was 18 during the season compared to much older players. Again, these are just to show the level of production he’s putting up as the youngest G-League player ever.

Back to the defense though, and how much he improved throughout the year. Smailagić can sometimes gamble or reach too much, as you notice with his foul rate being high (like a lot of young bigs), but it often pays off. He has really great instincts and quick hands. Here, h rushes the pick-and-roll ball-handler for an easy steal and breakaway dunk.

Here you see his capability switching and his block timing. He has a problem where he can hop instead of slide in space, and that causes him to shift too much weight onto one foot, which can take him out of the play. But that flaw has improved from the beginning of the year and is more of a technique than an athleticism concern. He also has extremely good recovery ability for a big his size and age. He freezes on the hesitation move at the foul line area, but quickly takes a few space-eating steps and times the block perfectly:

This is where you see the weight shift issue. He allows an easy 3 because the cross gets him to hop, which transfers all of his weight on his heels, basically making it impossible to recover:

However, when the technique is good and he slides( instead of hopping), the weight shift issue lessens and he shows flashes of being good on the perimeter. Combine these good feet with the quick hands, and he at times has flashes of REALLY good perimeter defense:

The biggest takeaway from watching Smailagić is his willingness to help, even in areas where he isn’t expected to. He’s constantly moving (sometimes to a fault), helping teammates, keeping hands high, and making plays. This is probably my favorite possession i’ve seen from him, where he stops the ball, then gets his teammate off of a mismatch, closes out to a shooter, and then crashes to contest back-to-back shots:

It’s rare for a big his age to constantly hit correctly on rotations and technique defense. There are questions with his strength and lack of vertical pop, but Smailagić has the ability to blow up plays before the offensive players gain advantages, which helps diminish plays where his lack of vertical pop is needed. Also, I’m not worried about the strength issue. He has wide shoulders, good weight and a really good frame for strength gain. Smailagić doesn’t turn 19 until August 18th, so it’s expected that he’ll look out-muscled in the G-League against players that are anywhere from 5 to 10 years older.

There are still some issues where he’s indecisive on defense, but it improved in a major way throughout the year. He can struggle defending pick-and-roll when he doesn’t switch, but I think it’s more of an issue of familiarity, though it will take some more time for him to improve. Below you see the indecisiveness. He hasn’t fully learned rotations after pick-and-roll plays where he doesn’t switch:

Again though, he improved a lot in almost all defensive areas throughout the year. This improvement along with flashes of quickness, projectable strength gain, off-ball awareness and quick reactionary time have me buying stock in Smailagić’s future defensive upside. Here he’s attacked straight-line where he flips his hips fast enough, forces the dump-off pass and uses quick reaction and timing for the block:

Another play where he stops the ball in transition (always helping in a team construct), uses good backpedal balance and stonewalls the ball-handler, forcing a turnover:

Again he shows great backpedal ability and a good use of his frame and high hands to force a pass. Smailagić does a really good job keeping his hands high and chest out while moving, which isn’t an easy thing to do:

The following is an example of the way he uses his chest to absorb contact and keep verticality/high hands:

Again, I’d like to reiterate that his defense is far from perfect, and he is still a project. Smailagić isn’t perfect on rotations (although better than most his peers), commits dumb fouls, and still needs more time understanding NBA offenses and how to defend certain situations. But I’m high on him as a whole on this side of the ball. Some think he’s strictly a five on defense, but I think he’s more than capable of defending the perimeter, especially as his technique continues to improve.

Offense is the biggest question mark for Smailagić, and if he never is able to shoot, his value diminishes by quite a bit. If he can’t shoot, playing him at the four isn’t an option. He also isn’t a vertical threat or much of a pick-and-roll threat, so he can (to a certain extent) be ignored offensively outside of his ability to drive and offensive rebound. His shot is a tough evaluation, and one that I’ve had a harder time projecting than others. His catch-and-shoot numbers are extremely poor (5th percentile), and he’s only shooting 66 percent on free throws. With that being said, he has great touch, has shown shot versatility, solid form, and has some impressive shot-making flashes, although all of them are while moving backwards.

The main issue that I’ve noticed with Smailagić is his shooting pocket has the tendency to be inconsistent based off the situation he’s shooting from. His standstill shots off the catch are much more robotic, and tend to be a two-motion shot. The third shot off the dribble (moving backwards) is really a good looking shot, where he dips off the dribble and shows one fluid motion with the follow through. It’s a VERY small sample size (10 possessions), but scored 1 point-per-possession on shots off the dribble this season:

Here are more examples of the flashes of tough shot-making and great touch:

There are very fair reasons for skepticism when projecting Smailagić’s jumper, and I’m still a bit unsure myself, but I think improvement is without a doubt possible. His flaws could be as simple as chest/core strength and repetition, or he could have poor muscle memory and never be able to stay consistent and never really improve at all. The fact is though that his shot is extremely important to his future projection.

One area of his offensive game — and where I believe he shows the upside of his athleticism in — is his isolation and driving ability. At 6-foot-10 Smailagić at times moves like a wing off the dribble. Again it’s a small sample size (30 possessions), but Smailagić is averaging 1.1 points-per-possession on isolation plays, which is in the 91st percentile.

Here he drives left and uses his shoulder followed by a spin to easily move Delgado (a very strong human) out the way. His handle is something that took serious strides over the course of the year. He’s still prone to a loose handle and occasional turnover, but the improvement was really encouraging to see:

This is one of my favorite Smailagić plays here, where he gets low with impressive balance while still being able to brush the defender off with his right forearm. He will be capable of taking advantage of true centers guarding him on the perimeter, and is also a fairly quick riser with good extension, as you can see on some of his blocked shots defensively:

The following is another drive and finish, this time using the rim to shield the contest. Smailagić doesn’t have a quick first step (solid for his size), but he uses long strides that eat up space and allows him to get his body into people while handling:

This was their last game of the year, and where he showed most convincingly how drastically his handle actually improved. He started using actual dribble moves in halfcourt settings, rather than relying on his size/strides to get to the rim. There is legitimate upside in my eyes for him to develop into a well above average slasher for his size and position:

Alen Smailagic is an 18-year-old big pic.twitter.com/00KE1swXu2 — Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) May 30, 2019

These drives also show glimpses of athletic upside that I’m fully buying into. He has extremely good balance for his size, along with quick feet, natural strength and very quick reaction time. He also shows good hand-eye coordination in his flashes of improved handle and tough shot-making. Once he continues to age and develop strength (core and lower body), there’s a real possibility he’s an above average NBA athlete.

Another thing you can see above is his ability to pass, which can sometimes be hindered by processing speed. But when he’s making quick and decisive reads he’s a plus passer. He can hit back-cuts, kick-out passes, and can even pass on the move, which isn’t particularly common for a big:

Passing of course isn’t the only way he can help get teammates open. Smailagić is a good and willing screener, which probably comes from his time playing with the Golden State G-League affiliate. He uses high IQ to set transition screens, re-screens and uses any advantage he can get while setting them. The first screen you see the quick decision “moving” screen he sets to allow his guard a free layup. This is impressive on the fly stuff for an 18 year-old:

One last thing to discuss when it comes to positives for Smailagić is his offensive rebounding. The good thing about him is he has a very high motor, and that gives him a potential floor as an energy big off the bench for NBA teams. Smailagić had a 13.1 offensive rebound percentage in his lone year in the G-League. For context, compare that to Zion Williamson’s 12.7 ORB%, Brandon Clarke’s 13.9 ORB%, Andre Drummond’s 16.8 ORB%, and Rudy Gobert’s 13.2 ORB%. The point is that he’s very good on the offensive glass, and it’s because of his effort and ability to high point rebounds with strong hands:

Now I know I’ve talked a lot about Smailagić’s positives, but he is nowhere near guaranteed to be an NBA contributor, and there’s sound reasoning behind him spending one more year in the G-league, learning and adapting to how the NBA game is played while continuing to develop his body. His foul rate, jumper, and occasional lapses of focus are all concerning, but none are a death sentence. It should also be factored in that he’s likely to be drafted with one of the final 10 picks in the draft, and most likely 58th by Golden State. It’s hard to get a fair chance to stick in the NBA when that’s your draft range, but with Golden State already monitoring him closely for a full year, his situation could be more favorable, if that is where he’s drafted.

Again I’d like to reiterate that for as high as I am on Smailagić he is a player who could very well never see legitimate NBA minutes if his improvement isn’t good enough or the opportunity isn’t there. With that being said, he’s a “low risk high reward” pick for where he’s getting drafted. I can envision him as a positive NBA starter if his shot develops, and the potential steal of the draft. The statistical profile (stock numbers specifically) combined with extremely impressive flash plays on the offensive end, natural feel for help/team defense, and age has me betting on the upside of Alen Smailagić.