The problem with Tony Abbott's attempt to recast himself as competent, if not likeable, is that voters don't particularly see him as either, write Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods.

"Government is not a popularity contest, it's a competence contest."

As he slides deeper into political quicksand, Tony Abbott has valiantly attempted to recast his lack of voter support as a positive. Like being a good parent, Abbott suggests the challenge is not to be liked but to do the right thing.

There are a couple of problems with Abbott's self-defensive attempt at reframing government as a competence game.

First, well, it pretty much is a popularity contest. "Show biz for ugly people," the saying goes. And while it's true a successful politician doesn't need to be liked by punters in a BFF sense, a politician can't get very far without finding a way to win popular support. Because democracy.

But Abbott's deadlier problem is that as well as being unpopular, he's also losing the competence contest. This week's Essential Report reveals a sharp fall in the perception that Abbott is a capable leader.

In the last two months, including the summer break when he was out of sight for a while, Abbott's rating as a capable leader has fallen nine points.

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott?

2 Sep 13 (as Opposition leader) 29 Oct 13 27 May 14 2 Dec 14 Total 3 Feb 15 Change Out of touch with ordinary people 52% 51% 67% 66% 72% +6 Arrogant 52% 54% 63% 61% 65% +4 Narrow-minded 55% 54% 61% 61% 63% +2 Erratic 43% 43% 51% 52% 60% +8 Hard working 71% 67% 57% 62% 58% -4 Superficial 48% 49% 57% 54% 55% +1 Intolerant 47% 49% 55% 53% 54% +1 Intelligent 63% 62% 52% 51% 50% -1 Aggressive 47% 46% 52% 49% 45% -4 Good in a crisis 39% 45% 35% 42% 36% -6 Understands the problems facing Australia 46% 51% 42% 40% 35% -5 A capable leader 46% 52% 41% 43% 34% -9 More honest than most politicians 34% 39% 30% 30% 30% - Trustworthy 38% 40% 29% 30% 27% -3 Visionary 35% 33% 31% 27% 22% -5

Before Christmas he was at 43 per cent, already significantly lower than his peak of 52 per cent after taking office. Now his "capable leader" rating stands at just 34 per cent.

During the same two-month period, Abbott's rating as "erratic" jumped a hefty eight points. Rounding out the trifecta "out of touch with ordinary people" is also up six points since December and a full 21 points since Abbott took office. The numbers suggest the Prince Philip knighthood debacle has built on the impressive work of last year's budget, which saw Abbott's "out of touch" ratings leap 15 points.

Abbott's appeal to competence is an attempt to differentiate from Labor's most recent term in office, dogged as it was by leadership turmoil and resulting chaos. But as we saw in the weekend's shock results from Queensland, it appears voters aren't saddling the current crop of leaders with the baggage of Labor's immediate past.

Federal Labor Leader Bill Shorten comes out significantly ahead of Abbott on key indicators.

Abbott Shorten Difference Erratic 60% 31% +29 Out of touch with ordinary people 72% 45% +27 Arrogant 65% 39% +26 Narrow-minded 63% 38% +25 Intolerant 54% 30% +24 Aggressive 45% 28% +17 Superficial 55% 41% +14 More honest than most politicians 30% 29% +1 Good in a crisis 36% 37% -1 Hard-working 58% 61% -3 Trustworthy 27% 33% -6 Visionary 22% 30% -8 Intelligent 50% 62% -12 A capable leader 34% 47% -13 Understands the problems facing Australia 35% 52% -17

A 47 per cent rating as "a capable leader" doesn't set the world on fire but it's a full 13 points ahead of Abbott. And the Opposition Leader ranks nearly 30 points lower than the Prime Minister on the key negative indicators of "erratic" and "out of touch".

Abbott is also stacking up poorly against potential leaders on his own side. With Malcolm Turnbull equal favourite along with "don't know", and Julie Bishop close behind, Tony Abbott comes in slightly behind "someone else" with 11 per cent support.

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Jun 2014 Tony Abbott 11% 4% 23% 3% 3% 18% Malcolm Turnbull 24% 27% 24% 37% 22% 31% Joe Hockey 5% 6% 4% 5% 3% 6% Julie Bishop 21% 20% 26% 11% 23% 4% Christopher Pyne <1% - <1% 1% 1% <1% Scott Morrison 2% 1% 4% 2% - 1% Someone else 13% 17% 4% 23% 24% 19% Don't know 24% 25% 13% 19% 24% 21%

The tricky reality is that politics is a popularity contest and a competence contest. Ideally, you have both. Having neither is unlikely to go well.

The survey was conducted online from January 30 to February 2, 2015 and is based on 1019 respondents.

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications. Jackie Woods is a communications consultant at Essential Media Communications.