The world’s largest oil producers continue joint talks on an unprecedented historic deal to mitigate the adverse effects of the crisis caused by the spread of the coronavirus. The challenge for them is to negotiate values ​​that everyone can agree with.

Ministers and diplomats will spend the next two days talking about who is ready to cut oil production and by how much. The focus is on the most important trio: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US.

An effective deal will require the involvement of all three parties. Russia and Saudi Arabia are poised to curtail production significantly. At the same time, the United States would prefer a gradual decline in production, which would come at a time when prices are low and oil reserves are already full.

After several turbulent days in which Trump’s forecast for a historic production decline was followed by an exchange of accusations between Moscow and Riyadh, signs emerged that diplomats were making some headway. US Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette had a “productive discussion” over the phone with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud.

“They are already contracting and cutting very seriously”, said the US President Donald Trump for the US oil producers during a briefing in Washington late Monday. He stressed that, for the time being, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has not suggested that the US consider limiting US oil production, noting that production at US companies has already declined. “I think this happens automatically, but so far no one has asked me such a question, so we’ll see how it happens”, stressed Donald Trump.

The talks still face significant obstacles. The OPEC+ manufacturers meeting, which has already been postponed once, is scheduled for Thursday. Russia and Saudi Arabia want the US to join, but Trump is not ready to strike a deal with the cartel so far.

“Nobody asked me to, so if they do, I’ll make a decision”, Trump said. “I’ll let you know on Thursday night”, he added.

OPEC and its allies will meet in a video conference on April 9. The cartel stressed that a deal would not be reached if the United States did not get involved in the talks on shrinkage.

The discussion will be followed on Friday by talks between the G20 energy ministers who will hold a video conference to discuss the deal. The interview is scheduled to last about 2 hours, according to a diplomat who will attend the meeting.

The G20 may be a more acceptable forum for the US and other major oil producers outside of OPEC +, such as Canada and Brazil. Dan Brouillette said he agrees with Prince Abdulaziz that talks should be held “in the near future”.

Crude oil prices have fallen by around 50% this year as the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic have wiped out about one-third of global demand. The collapse in prices is so dramatic that it threatens the stability of oil-dependent countries, the existence of US shale producers and poses an additional challenge for central banks around the world. Industry officials say that if a deal to cut supplies is not reached, the market will simply force producers to cut production as storage space runs out.

The purpose of the talks, first announced by Donald Trump last week, is to reduce oil production by about 10% – the largest coordinated reduction so far.

But even if a deal to curb yields of up to 10 million barrels per day is reached, this will not change the fact that there is already a market saturation of 35 million barrels. Oil prices have already reached negative levels in some places on the physical market, and traders are racing to load large quantities of offshore tankers.