STANDING on stage at the Gorky Automobile Plant in Nizhny Novgorod in early December, flanked by factory workers in blue jackets, Vladimir Putin spoke of the region’s history. After volunteers from Novgorod helped 17th-century Moscow overcome the Time of Troubles, the president said, “the united, centralised and powerful Russian state began to develop rapidly.” He called upon the car workers to continue in the same tradition. “With the active participation of people like you,” he declared, “Russia will keep moving forward.” They in turn called upon Mr Putin to announce his candidacy in next year’s presidential election then and there. “Everyone in this audience, without exception, supports you,” said a worker. He duly obliged—surprising no one.

On the economic front, the Russian automobile is indeed moving forward again, if slowly. After two grinding years of recession, the economy will grow in 2017. Adept policy responses helped stabilise the situation following the dual shocks of falling oil prices and Western sanctions. The central bank has brought inflation below its target of 4%, after it soared above 16% in 2015. Budget discipline has kept deficits at manageable levels. Yet oil-fuelled growth had stalled even before the latest crisis: in 2013, with oil prices around $100 per barrel, GDP growth was only 1.3%. This year it will be under 2%. Without significant reform, the World Bank reckons it will hover around 1.8% in the coming years.

An economy stuck in second gear presents a challenge for the Kremlin as it prepares for Mr Putin’s next term. Such low growth will very soon start to feel like stagnation and affect lifestyles, says Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory, a consultancy. “The administration is very aware of this and afraid of this as well.” Rising incomes throughout Mr Putin’s first two terms, when the economy grew by some 7% a year on average, provided the foundation for his popularity. Since his return to the presidency in 2012 after a term as prime minister, his assertive foreign policy has replaced economic progress as his main achievement in Russians’ eyes. In a bid to generate excitement about next year’s election, it will be held on March 18th—the anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. While his victory is in little doubt, he cannot count on the annexation’s afterglow to block out pocketbook problems much longer. “We have a very patient population, but it won’t continue eternally,” says a senior Russian official.