Notably, campaigns to lead the two counties that bookend New York City, Nassau and Westchester, are in statistical dead heats. | Getty A guide to Tuesday's elections in New York

ALBANY — A typically quiet year in New York’s election cycle has been made even less suspenseful by the seemingly pre-ordained outcome of the year's two highest-profile votes. Bill de Blasio is all but certain to win a second term as New York City’s mayor, and a ballot question asking whether the state should hold a constitutional convention appears to be headed to a landslide defeat.

But there are highly competitive races in other parts of the state.


Notably, campaigns to lead the two counties that bookend New York City — Nassau and Westchester — are in statistical dead heats. Democrats held both of these bellwether counties for several terms before the GOP won them in 2009, presaging massive Republican pick-ups in congressional and state legislative races the following year. Democrats are hopeful that this year's contests foreshadow big gains for their party in 2018.

The election should also measure the strength of labor unions, which have dedicated most of their energy this election season to the constitutional convention question. The campaign has attracted a variety of voices, but none has been louder than the public employee unions that ran a multi-million dollar campaign warning New Yorkers that a convention could be dominated by well-heeled special interests.

When the question last appeared on the ballot in 1997, it lost by a 63-37 margin after being opposed by a coalition that was essentially replicated this year. It could lose by a larger margin this time around — the most recent poll found it down 57-25.

A good indicator on Tuesday night will be the turnout in Albany County, one of the country’s most-unionized locales. If the total number of ballots surges past the 70,735 cast in 2013, when the level of competition in local races was about the same as this year, it’d be a strong sign that labor succeeded at motivating its members to show up to the polls.

Here’s a look at some of the other races worth watching throughout the state:

CAPITAL DISTRICT/ NORTH COUNTRY

Rensselaer County executive: Andrea Smyth (D) v. Steve McLaughlin (R)

The noisiest race in a quiet election year in the state’s northeastern corner has involved the candidacy of McLaughlin, a populist Republican who has served in the Assembly since 2011. McLaughlin won a primary victory against the GOP establishment’s preferred candidate in September, despite the release of a tape in which he called a female aide fat and she implied he had assaulted her (She has since recanted this accusation).

McLaughlin is the widespread favorite in Rensselaer, but it’s not implausible that the tape and a lack of establishment enthusiasm could lead to a Smyth upset.

Other races of note

Since Albany Mayor Kathy Sheehan won the Democratic primary in September, there hasn’t been much drama in her bid for a second term. Assuming she wins, Democrats will have controlled City Hall for a full century at the end of 2021.

Some Common Council seats in the city, however, have attracted more attention due to irregularities in absentee ballot counts. Several candidates have claimed their opponents are urging voters to fill out ballots in front of them, even when these voters aren’t allowed to vote by absentee. As a result, on Friday a court ordered that these ballots not be counted until it can be determined whether or not they were submitted properly.

CENTRAL NEW YORK/ SOUTHERN TIER/ MOHAWK VALLEY

Syracuse mayor: Juanita Perez Williams (D) vs. Laura Lavine (R), Ben Walsh (I) and Howie Hawkins (G)

While there are mayoral elections in five of the state’s six largest cities this year, the contest in Syracuse is the only one that has remained competitive heading into November. Perez Williams, a former city corporation counsel and assistant state attorney general, drew the support of 35 percent of voters in an early October Siena poll. Walsh, who previously oversaw the city’s economic development and is running on the Reform and Independence lines, was backed by 28 percent.

Both have picked up significant backers in recent weeks. The Democratic National Committee has made a rare investment in a local race by supporting Perez Williams, who would be the state’s first Latina mayor. And Walsh, 38, was endorsed by the city’s largest newspaper on Friday, which cited his ability to “enlist Syracuse’s young people to join its older generation in the fight for the city’s future.”

Walsh appears to have since siphoned off some votes from both Lavine, the Republican, and Joe Nicoletti, who dropped out of the race after losing the Democratic primary but will still appear on the Working Families line. A new Siena poll released on Sunday found that he has since moved slightly ahead, topping Perez Williams 36-34. There’s still plenty of room for movement in the final days, however, as a full eighth of likely voters said they were undecided.

Other races of note

While Democrats have long held a small minority of seats in the Onondaga Legislature, they might be helped a bit this year by the existence of warring factions within the county GOP.

Republican Binghamton Mayor Richard David is being challenged by Democrat Tarik Abdelazim.

The most high-profile contest in the Elmira area is a three-way open race to be Corning’s next mayor.

Incumbent Gloversville Mayor Dayton King lost the GOP primary to firefighter Bill Rowback in September. But with no Democrats, the two have a general election rematch with King running on the Conservative line.

HUDSON VALLEY

Westchester County executive: George Latimer (D) v. Rob Astorino (R)

Westchester, whose demographics are almost exactly the same as those in the state as a whole, is the best bellwether of the political climate in New York. Westchester residents have won nine of the past 15 gubernatorial elections, and their percentage of the vote there frequently parallels their overall margins; in 2014, for example, Cuomo received 57.1 percent of the vote in Westchester in 2014 compared to 57.4 percent statewide.

So Democrats are hopeful that a defeat of two-term incumbent Astorino will provide new evidence that their party is well-positioned to make gains in the crucial suburbs in the Trump era.

Latimer, a state senator, has certainly tried to make the race a referendum on Trump, and has frequently compared the county’s budget priorities under Astorino to ideas that have come out of Washington in recent months. On Friday, he was joined by county resident Hillary Clinton, who asserted that Astorino has been “funded by some of Donald Trump’s most powerful allies” as she endorsed Latimer.

Astorino, meanwhile, has continued to run on an agenda that has worked for him and other suburban Republicans in the past: Above all else, arguing that property taxes in the country’s highest-tax county cannot increase.

But to a large degree, the campaign has revolved around bitter personal attacks. Astorino has called on Latimer to resign from his Senate committee because he missed a vote on last year’s budget while in London, and Latimer called on Astorino to resign after he was named in a union official’s corruption trial as the alleged recipient of a discounted luxury watch.

The incumbent has also spent the past month hammering away on his challenger’s personal finances. Latimer’s wife inherited a house five years ago that has since been the center of an estate dispute, and the property has amassed $46,000 in late property tax payments. Additionally, it was recently revealed that Latimer continued to drive a vehicle with registration that lapsed after he let $2,200 in parking tickets pile up,

Latimer appears to have a very slim edge — a poll with a 4-point margin of error that was conducted last week found him up 46-43. Since the poll was conducted, Latimer gained the endorsement of the Journal News, but it was hardly full-throated: While saying that he would be better for the county than Astorino, the paper called him “flawed,” “bumbling” and a law violator.

Other races of note

In addition to Westchester’s executive race, a single seat switching parties in the county legislature could remake its dynamics. There are currently nine Democrats and eight members of the Republican caucus, though two Democrats have joined with the GOP in a majority coalition.

Rockland County executive Ed Day, a Republican, is favored to win a second term as he faces a challenge from Democrat Maureen Porette.

Republican Clarkstown Supervisor George Hoehmann is being challenged by former Police Chief Michael Sullivan, who was fired after Hoehmann brought disputed disciplinary charges against him.

LONG ISLAND

Nassau County executive: Laura Curran (D) v. Jack Martins (R)

Like Westchester, New York City’s easternmost suburb can also serve as a strong barometer of New York’s overall political climate. It’s the site of several swing state Senate districts that can determine which party has a majority in the chamber.

In addition to the perennial suburban issue of taxes, both candidates are turning to topics that have helped their candidates win races on Long Island in the past. Curran, a county legislator, has repeatedly turned to the topic of ethics in the race to replace outgoing executive Ed Mangano, who was indicted on federal charges last year. She has repeatedly attempted to tie Martins to his fellow former Nassau Republican, Dean Skelos, who will be retried on unrelated federal charges next year.

Martins has recently focused on the topic of immigration. In response to Curran refusing to reject the endorsement of Democrats who support sanctuary cities, Republicans sent out a mailer saying she will “roll out the welcome mat for violent gangs like MS-13!” The mailer, which critics have dubbed racist, includes a photo of several heavily-tattooed men introduced as “your new neighbors.”

The Republican appears to have had a very slim edge heading into the campaign’s final weeks. An October Siena poll with a 3.6 point margin of error found Martins ahead of Curran 43-41.

Suffolk sheriff: Errol Toulon (D) v. Larry Zacarese (R)

While the race to succeed Suffolk’s sheriff seemed preordained as of two months ago, it’s since shaped up to be one of the more turbulent in the state. Republicans and several minor parties endorsed state Sen. Phil Boyle, and Democrats, who put up a series of placeholder candidates, seemed content to let him win.

But after widespread criticism of the perception that the parties seemed to have rigged the election, Boyle suffered a primary upset to Zacarese, an assistant chief at SUNY Stony Brook’s police department. Democrats have since endorsed Toulon, a former deputy corrections commissioner in New York City. Toulon also gained the post-primary backing of the Conservative and Independence parties.

Other races of note

Compared to the sheriff’s contest, Suffolk’s district attorney race has been relatively placid. Democrat Tim Sini, a former federal prosecutor, is favored to win over Republican Ray Perini, former assistant DA.

The other countywide elections in Nassau have attracted less attention than the executive race, but the contest for clerk has been similarly combative, with incumbent Republican Maureen O’Connell recently highlighting a 9-year-old gender and sex discrimination suit filed against Democrat Dean Bennett. Former GOP Assemblyman Steven Labriola is running against Long Beach city manager Jack Schnirman in an open contest for comptroller.

There are three candidates running for two district court judgeship spots in Islip. One of them is Assemblyman Al Graf, a Republican who has five minor party lines including the Green’s and Women’s Equality Party’s.

NEW YORK CITY

Senate District 26: Brian Kavanagh (D) vs. Analicia Alexander (R)

Assembly District 27: Daniel Rosenthal (D)

Assembly District 71: Alfred Taylor (D)

Three recently vacated state legislative seats are being filled in special elections held on Tuesday, though none of them is competitive.

Two involve just one candidate. In Harlem, Taylor was chosen as the Democratic candidate to fill the seat occupied for decades by the recently retired Denny Farrell. He’s a reverend who has worked as Farrell’s chief of staff. And Rosenthal, a City Council aide, will fill the Queens vacancy created by the September death of Michael Simanowitz.

The only one who has an opponent is Kavanagh, who’s running to fill the Senate seat recently vacated by Dan Squadron. Opponent Alexander is a pre-K teacher and friend of Manhattan GOP chairwoman Andrea Catsimatidis. But as Republicans constitute only 9 percent of the registered voters in the district, which contains most of the parts of Manhattan that fall below Houston Street and a stretch of Brooklyn’s northern shore, it’s unlikely she’ll be competitive.

Other races of note

Should Mayor Bill de Blasio win a second term as he’s widely expected to, voters will have elected only three people as mayor over the course of seven elections. That would set a record for steadiness, as it would likely result in the fewest mayors over the course of any 28-year stretch in the city’s history.

An interesting quirk for the heart of liberal America: De Blasio would be the first individual to win consecutive terms as mayor without running on the Republican line since Robert Wagner pulled off the feat over half a century ago. (Democrat Ed Koch won the second of his three terms in 1981 with the cross-endorsement of the city's Republican Party.)

While there are a few competitive City Council races, there’s no real drama over whether Democrats will continue to control the body that they currently have a 47-3 majority in. The biggest undecided question in the Council involves an eight-way contest among members hoping to be chosen as its next speaker.

WESTERN NEW YORK/ FINGER LAKES

Erie County Sheriff: Bernard Tolbert (D) v. Timothy Howard (R)

The sheriff’s race in the state’s westernmost large county has become a microcosm of several political tensions that have rattled the nation as a whole over the past year.

Howard has been criticized for years for what detractors deem an unnecessarily harsh treatment of prisoners — 22 have died in county custody since he took office in 2006. Those critics frequently point to positive remarks he has made about Arizona’s Joe Arpaio, He stoked the ire of Democrats even more when he appeared in uniform earlier this year at a pro-Trump event at which some attendees held Confederate flags. Since then, it hasn’t been hard to find “Fire Sheriff Howard — Fight Racism” lawn signs in parts of Buffalo.

Democratic challenger Tolbert, a former FBI regional director, has also been accused of conduct that his opponents say disqualifies him from serving in a top law enforcement post. During a stint overseeing security for the NBA, he asked a female employee to include “a photo of an obese, naked woman” in a PowerPoint “warning players about the dangers of drinking.” This, as well as alleged “demeaning comments about women,” has since led to several lawsuits, at least one of which resulted in a settlement.

Erie County generally tilts to the left — Richard Nixon is the most recent GOP presidential candidate to win it — but Democrats tend to struggle at this point in the four-year election cycle. Turnout drops in the solidly blue city of Buffalo after the mayoral race is effectively decided in the primary, meaning countywide races are frequently decided in the moderate suburbs.

Erie County Clerk: Steve Cichon (D) v. Mickey Kearns (R)

Buffalo’s politics are often driven by bizarrely shifting political alliances, and these are clearly on view in this year’s race for county clerk. Republican candidate Kearns is a Democratic assemblyman, though he temporarily broke with his party to form a one-man conference in Albany at the end of Sheldon Silver’s tenure. Cichon, the Democrat, is a former Republican who previously worked as the news director at Buffalo’s conservative talk radio station.

Other races of note

Democrat Vanessa Glushefski, who is Assemblywoman Monica Wallace’s legislative director, is challenging incumbent Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw.

Democratic Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown is expected to easily win a general election in which no Republican will appear on the ballot. So is Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren, who’s facing three opponents on Tuesday.

Voters in Barrington will decide whether their Yates County town of 1,681 people will remain mostly dry. Three propositions on the question were necessitated when the state accidentally granted a liquor license to a local deli.

STATEWIDE RACES

Voters will consider two ballot questions in addition to the one on the constitutional convention. One would increase the number of corrupt public officials who can have their pensions confiscated by courts; the other would make it easier for towns in the Adirondacks and Catskills to utilize protected land when making minor infrastructure improvements.