VOX is the newcomer in spanish politics; the hard-right party outperformed expectations and pulled off an impressive result in the Andalucia region. Because it’s an emergent party, it’s not easy to identify it’s core electorate; nonwithstanding, it’s an interesting and important analytical exercise so in this article i will try to draw the profile of the typical VOX voter. For this, i will cross the data of three polls* with the results of the Andalucia regional election.



Gender

According to a CIS barometer, VOX is the party that relies most heavily on men. 66% of their voters are men according to this poll. Other polling agency, Metroscopia- Henneo, pointed to 72% of VOX vote coming from men.



Age

Age is a more complicated segment. There are some contradictory polling data and there is no clear age bracket where VOX is significantly superior. Majority of polling avaiable hints VOX being stronger with middle aged people and weaker with both older and young people. There was a poll, 40db poll for El Pais, in which VOX stronger group are people with more than 65 years old. Someone is wrong. I prefer to align with the position that VOX is stronger with middle age people than older. Not only because the majority of the polls point in that direction but because, despite older people being more conservative, they are also more loyal voters and their voting elasticity is lower.



Population density

Small villages are undoubtedly where VOX performs worse. Only accounts for 10% of the vote of Abascal party. I would say the bad results are not so much because of rejection of the party’s ideology but due to the fact that in small villages, emergent parties are not well known. That could change in a couple of years but for now, the strenght of VOX is in medium to big cities.



Important to note that VOX performs better in cities with higher % of non-EU migrants. In the city of El Ejido which has around 23% of the population born out of the EU, VOX scored 30%. Immigration was definitely one of the issues that made more people turn up to VOX.



Level of studies:

VOX performs bad both with people who have little to none studies and those who have master or PhD titles. Graduates voters are responsible for most VOX votes.



Income

VOX performance slightly improves in cities with medium to higher income per capita. A poll from 40dB on this subject found out that VOX performs worse with people of low income and much better with middle to upper class. Crossing these two data, we could say with some degree of certainty that middle to middle-upper class is VOX strongest income group.



Background

VOX voter is clearly on the right. In the Andalucia elections, 64% of VOX votes came from voters who vote in right-wing parties in the previous regional election and only 15% from left-wing parties. In the metroscopia-henneo poll, VOX voter was the one that in average positioned himself more to the right; 7,3 in a 0 to 10 scale being 10 the most right wing. PP voters by comparison positioned themselves in 6.6.

*the three polls I used for this article are metroscopia-henneo in October 2018, CIS in January 2019 and 40dB in December 2018.