Breaking Down Every Conference Championship

Beyond a couple of makeup games, the 2018 regular season is in the books. Conference championship week has finally arrived and will provide the results that will shape the bowl season.

With Notre Dame already sealing a spot in the four-team tournament for the national title, the important games this weekend are the ones that will determine which other three programs will join the Fighting Irish in the College Football Playoff.

Here is a breakdown of all the conference championship games, listed in alphabetical order by conference, with games lines courtesy of OddsShark and rankings reflecting the CFP Top 25.

American Athletic Conference

Matchup: Memphis (8-4) at No. 8 UCF (11-0)

Info: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 1; Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, FL

Favorite: UCF -3.5

Stakes: As the highest-rated “Group of Five” program, UCF would secure a berth to either the Fiesta or Peach Bowl with a victory, which they will not be too happy about after possibly completing their second straight undefeated season. If Memphis were to win, the programs will be included in the non-specific AAC selection process, which aims for the best possible matchups.

Key Storyline: Dual-threat quarterback McKenzie Milton guided the Knights on their 24-game winning streak, including a 16-point second-half comeback during UCF’s regular-season win at Memphis, but a horrific injury in Week 13’s game against South Florida will sideline him for at least the rest of the season. Without Milton’s presence and freshman backup Darriel Mack Jr. assuming control of the offense, it will be fun to see if UCF can continue to win and try to somehow sneak into the College Football Playoff.

Prediction: The Memphis Tigers come in winning their last four games, and have been a completely different team over the last month by outscoring teams by 18.75 points. Memphis is going to put up points and I question if UCF can match it without their star quarterback, even though Darriel Mack Jr. played well last week. With that being said, I believe the UCF win streak comes to an end and the Memphis Tigers pull off the upset.

Atlantic Coastal Conference

Matchup: No. 2 Clemson (12-0) vs. Pittsburgh (7-5)

Info: 8 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 1; Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Favorite: Clemson -25.5

Stakes: Not only is a fourth straight conference title on the line for Clemson, but the powerhouse could also extend its CFP streak to four, assuring of a No. 2 ranking at worst. As for Pitt, if they are able to upset the Tigers, they will make a New Year’s Six game, which could possibly be the Peach Bowl. However, if they are not able to pull it off, they are in line for a top tier ACC selection, such as the Sun Bowl.

Key Storyline: In Week 13, Pitt fell 24-3 to Miami, which has a tremendous defense but an uninspiring offense, while Clemson had their worse defensive showing of the season, but was still about to capture a 21-point win over South Carolina behind 744 yards of offense. We will see if the Panthers’ run-first offense can hang around into the fourth quarter.

Prediction: If Clemson takes this Pittsburgh team lightly, the Panthers could definitely steal the ACC title game away from the Tigers. However, there is nothing Clemson wants more than to get back to the College Football Playoff, and the Tigers will not take their opportunity lightly. Look for Clemson’s defense to limit the Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett’s opportunities, while the Tigers’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence should be able to have a big game, leading to Clemson taking control in the third quarter and getting back to the playoff.

Big 12 Conference

Matchup: No. 14 Texas (9-3) vs. No. 5 Oklahoma (11-1)

Info: Noon ET Saturday, Dec. 1; AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Favorite: Oklahoma -6

Stakes: Oklahoma is seeking its fourth consecutive Big 12 crown, and although a win does not assure them of a place in the College Football Playoff, it would put them in a decent spot, with the alternative being a spot in the Sugar Bowl. However, Texas should head there with a victory or the Alamo Bowl with a loss.

Key Storyline: In October, Texas downed the Sooners 48-45 thanks to a last-second field goal, in a game that the Longhorns coughed up a 21-point advantage. They would have never pulled off the upset without a plus-three turnover margin, and they do not catch the same breaks this time around, I am not so sure that their inconsistent offense can take advantage of Oklahoma’s suspect defense to keep up with quarterback Kyler Murray and the Sooners’ offense.

Prediction: Oklahoma has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but their defense has been awful, as in their last 4 games they have allowed their opponents to average 47.3 points per game, while still winning. Texas is a bit more balanced team with some impactful offensive players, and I believe they will have their way against the Sooners defense, and take home part two of the Red River Showdown.

Big Ten Conference

Matchup: No. 21 Northwestern (8-4) vs. No. 6 Ohio State (11-1)

Info: 8 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 1; Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Favorite: Ohio State -14

Stakes: The dismantling of Michigan might be enough to convince the CFP committee that Ohio State deserves a top four spot, but even if the Buckeyes win, they will be sweating out Selection Day. If Northwestern is able to win their first outright Big Ten title since 1995, they will make a surprise Rose Bowl appearance, even though the Cats are more likely bound for the Holiday or TaxSlayer Bowl.

Key Storyline: Northwestern tends to perform at the level of its competition, as they have lost to Akron and Duke and have had four-quarter fights with Michigan and Notre Dame, which they lost in both. With that being said, the Wildcats figure to give Ohio State a battle.

Prediction: Northwestern cannot win the game if Ohio State plays at the same level they did against Michigan. However, if the Buckeyes get off to a bad start and Northwestern can get off to an early led, the Wildcats will have a chance to register an upset, but if Ohio State plays error-free football, the Wildcats will not be able to keep up the pace. Ohio State will take charge in the second half and win the game.

Conference USA

Matchup: UAB (9-3) at Middle Tennessee (8-4)

Info: 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 1; Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN

Favorite: Middle Tennessee -2.5

Stakes: Neither team has ever won a Conference USA championship, and the league does not have a defined selection order, so the postseason destinations for both UAB and Middle Tennessee are unknown. The only certainty is Florida International will represent C-USA against Toledo, who are in the MAC, in the Bahamas Bowl.

Key Storyline: UAB did a whole lot of nothing during the Week 13 clash in Murfreesboro, going for 89 total yards behind a short-handed offensive line in a 27-3 loss. The return of senior quarterback A.J. Erdely did not help out the Blazers, but if they are healthier up front, things get interesting.

Prediction: This has the making of a low scoring contest, but I believe the Middle Tennessee quarterback Brent Stockstill, who completed 22-29 for 261 yards with a pair of touchdowns last week against UAB, will be the difference maker, as Middle Tennessee wins the game.

Mid-American Conference

Matchup: Northern Illinois (7-5) vs. Buffalo (10-2)

Info: 7 p.m. ET Friday, Nov. 30; Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Favorite: Buffalo -4

Stakes: NIU last won the MAC in 2014, while Buffalo’s most recent title was 2008. With Toledo already locked in for the Bahamas Bowl, the MAC has three remaining bowl tie-ins with no specific selection order, meaning these two programs with represent the conference in either the Dollar General, Famous Idaho Potato, or Camellia Bowl.

Key Storyline: Northern Illinois is not built for a shootout, considering it ranks 122nd nationally in scoring offense at just 19.9 points per game, with Buffalo has dynamic potential with redshirt junior quarterback Tyree Jackson, who has been inefficient lately. The Bulls will either run away with this one or NIU could win a low-scoring game.

Prediction: This game will be a lot about defense, as the Huskies will need their defense to win this game because their offense cannot score and Buffalo’s defense will have an easy time limiting them. With Buffalo liking to run the ball, I believe they will come away with this game.

Mountain West Conference

Matchup: No. 25 Fresno State (10-2) at No. 22 Boise State (10-2)

Info: 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 1; Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID

Favorite: Boise State -2.5

Stakes: For the third time in six seasons, the MWC title game features these two programs, Boise State holds a 2-0 mark, including last year’s 17-14 win, while Fresno State last won the Mountain West in 2013. If UCF loses, the winner has a chance to appear in the Fiesta Bowl, but if the win, the victor will got to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Key Storyline: In the November matchup between these two, which Boise State won 24-17, both teams wasted scoring chances. The Broncos had an interception inside the 30, a missed field goal, and a turnover on downs, while Fresno State missed two kicks and lost eh ball on downs. This time around, it will come down to which team will capitalize on their opportunities.

Prediction: I believe both teams will capitalize on their opportunities, with Boise State making more plays to win the game. Although, many keep going against the Broncos and they keep winning, do not be surprised if they slip up here, but I do not think they will.

Pac-12 Conference

Matchup: No. 17 Utah (9-3) vs. No. 11 Washington (9-3)

Info: 8 p.m. ET Friday, Nov. 30; Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Favorite: Washington -5

Stakes: The winner seals a place in the Rose Bowl. Washington last appeared in the Pac-12’s prized game to close the 2000 season, while this would mark Utah’s first trip to the “Granddaddy of Them All.”

Key Storyline: When the programs met in September, the Huskies won 21-7 and limited Utah to one gain of 20-plus yards. The Utes started Tyler Huntley that game, who has since broken his collarbone, and freshman quarterback Jason Shelley has not yet faced a defense of this caliber. He will need to provide a game-changing play for this stingy Utah unit to make an upset happen.

Prediction: The Utes are a tough and relentless team has not let injuries at key positions stop them. Just last week, the Washington defense limited high-powered Washington State to 15 points, and it is difficult to see Utah doing any better. I believe the Huskies will win by multiple touchdowns.

Southeastern Conference

Matchup: No. 4 Georgia (11-1) vs. No. 1 Alabama (12-0)

Info: 4 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 1; Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Favorite: Alabama -13

Stakes: The SEC Championship Game is the only showdown in which the winner is guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff, serving somewhat as a quarterfinal. Alabama could possibly sneak into the playoff despite a loss, but it is unlikely. In all likelihood, the loser in Atlanta is headed to the Sugar Bowl against a Big 12 foe.

Key Storyline: In a rematch of last season’s national title, Georgia has an experienced quarterback in Jake Fromm, talented running backs, an intriguing group of low-volume receivers, and a secondary that has been terrific all season. However, they will have to stop Tua Tagovailoa, who has 36 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions, and this shape the result of the game.

Prediction: Georgia will provide Alabama with its toughest test of the season to date, but in order to win they must stop left-handed sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With the secondary Georgia has, as well as their stars on offense, I believe this will be the best game of the day, and Georgia will pull off the upset.

Sun Belt Conference

Matchup: Louisiana-Lafayette (7-5) at Appalachian State (9-2)

Info: Noon ET Saturday, Dec. 1; Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC

Favorite: Appalachian State -17.5

Stakes: The winner is destined for the New Orleans Bowl, which has featured Louisiana in five of the last seven years, but after that, it is an unknown, with the Sun Belt factoring in geography and a desire to create the most appealing matchups for its postseason games.

Key Storyline: This game will come down to points, as any football game does. Appalachian State has a 5-0 record at home and surrendered no more than 17 points in each of those games, while Louisiana’s offense has explosive potential, but the Ragin’ Cajuns averaged only 21.7 points on the road during the regular season.

Prediction: With how Appalachian State is at home and Louisiana-Lafayette is on the road, I believe this game will not be close. However, if the Ragin’ Cajuns want a chance at the upset, they have to control the scoreboard, but I do not think they will and the Mountaineers will win another one at home.