In 2015, a lot has changed. Sources say that Ukip is drafting a much cannier manifesto, in recognition of the fact that this time it will be launched in the full glare of media and political scrutiny. Back in 2010, the party won the support of fewer than a million people, or just 3 per cent of the national vote. Now, it is a more serious player. Ukip came top in the last European poll and has won two by-elections. Its polling support sits persistently in the teens. That might not mean that it is about to break the mould of British politics, but it certainly could capture a handful of seats, and maybe deny the Tories a majority.