Next two weeks leading up to the mid-December summit could be among the most critical of the whole Brexit process

After six rounds of negotiations and an October summit at which the EU27 firmly rejected moving Brexit talks from the divorce on to transition and future trade, it seems a deal on the terms of the UK’s exit from the bloc may be within reach.

In her Lancaster House speech in January setting out her negotiating objectives, Theresa May said Brexit meant halting “vast contributions” to the EU budget, quitting the single market and customs union, leaving the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, controlling immigration from the EU and sealing a unique, bespoke future trading relationship with the bloc.



In Florence nine months later, in a speech intended to move negotiations forward, the prime minister said the UK would “honour its financial commitments” and that no member would have to pay more into – or receive less from – the EU during the current budget round, a pledge widely thought to imply a financial settlement of around €20bn.

But a fortnight before a crunch EU summit, broad agreement has reportedly been reached on a divorce bill closer to €50bn. After UK concessions including acceptance of a role for the ECJ in settling disputes, an accord also seems close on citizens’ rights, a second key part of the article 50 separation talks.

Britain’s determination to leave the single market and customs union make it difficult to see how some kind of hard border in Ireland – the third main divorce issue – can be avoided. But with deals near on the other two points, hopes are rising that a temporary fudge can be found to allow the EU27 to declare enough progress has been made on article 50 for transition and future trade talks to begin.



The next few days leading up to the mid-December summit could be among the most critical of the whole Brexit process, helping ensure – if all goes smoothly – that Britain does not crash out in a disorderly, chaotic exit at the first major hurdle.

Here are the key dates to watch out for:



29 November EU ambassadors meet in Brussels. According to an initial timetable, they were to begin drafting the summit’s article 50 conclusions, but with talks still not yet sufficiently advanced the ambassadors are instead working on non-Brexit matters that will be discussed at the leaders’ meeting.

1 December EU diplomats specialising in Brexit meet to assess Britain’s outline proposal on the financial settlement and assess progress on the Irish border and citizens’ rights. Intensive talks between Brussels and London are likely to continue through the weekend.

4 December: Theresa May heads to Brussels for a meal – variously reported as lunch or dinner – with Jean-Claude Juncker. This is seen in both London and EU capitals as crunch time: the prime minister is thought likely to present the UK’s offer on the divorce bill and its proposals on solving the conundrum of the Irish border, the biggest remaining obstacle.

6 December EU ambassadors resume preparations for the upcoming summit. Whatever the state of the article 50 talks, this is when the conclusions that will be announced at the close of the summit must be drafted if they are to be rubber-stamped in time by the national capitals.



11 December Three days before the summit, special envoys – known as sherpas – from those national capitals gather in Brussels bearing the detailed responses of their respective heads of state and government to the draft conclusions. If any sticks are to be stuck in the spokes of an agreement, this is when they could emerge: will Britain have done enough to win the unanimous agreement of the 27 members states that Brexit talks can move on to the next stage?

12 December The 27 European affairs ministers travel to Brussels for what is known as a general affairs council on the article 50 negotiations, which will polish and confirm the ambassadors’ and sherpas’ work. Assuming no last-minute surprises, the thrust of the summit’s conclusions, including on sufficient progress, will have been decided. Brussels watchers will have a good idea of what they are.



14-15 December EU leaders meet in Brussels for their summit. While they may discuss other matters, it is highly unusual for European councils to do much more than tinker around the edges of what has already been drafted. They will deliver their verdict on whether sufficient progress has been achieved – which took all of 90 seconds at their October meeting – and formally adopt the summit’s conclusions. May will be informed of whether or not trade and transition talks can begin.