With all that happens on the ATP Tour, to ask even the most dedicated tennis fan to remember who won a specific ATP 250 event would be quite unreasonable. As we all know, the tennis season never really ends. However, given where we’re at in the 2020 calendar, the following thought has repeatedly crossed my mind: it has been two FULL seasons since Frances Tiafoe won his first and only ATP title in Delray Beach.

Two full years since a then 20-years-old Frances Tiafoe, known more at that point for his remarkable background story than his accomplishments on the ATP Tour, knocked off Matt Ebden, Juan Martin Del Potro (😭), Hyeon Chung (also sad!!!!), Denis Shapovalov, and Peter Gojowczyk to become the youngest American man since Andy Roddick to win an ATP Title. That first title, quickly followed by Tiafoe’s first round of 16 appearance at a Masters event in Miami, propelled the youngest Orange Bowl champion in history to a then career-high of #58 in the ATP singles rankings.

Here’s the list of players under the age of 21 who joined Tiafoe in that April 2018 edition of the Top 100: Alex Zverev (already up to #4), Andrey Rublev (#35), Denis Shapovalov (#45), Stefanos Tsitsipas (#69), and Taylor Fritz (#72). By the end of the season, only Tsitsipas (#15), Shapovalov (#27), De Minaur (#31), and Tiafoe (#39) remained under the legal drinking age and still within the Top 100.

Read those names again. Fast forward to the current the live-rankings, and here’s where all of the players named above currently sit: Tsitsipas #6, Zverev #7, Rublev #14, Shapovalov #15, De Minaur #25, Fritz #35….. Frances Tiafoe #80. While the rest of his peers have either maintained or advanced their rankings over the past two years, the same cannot be said for Frances Tiafoe. He’s also watched as younger or similar aged talents such as Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ugo Humbert (who beat him in this year’s Delray QFs 61 62), Casper Rudd, Miomir Kecmanovic, and others have surpassed him as well.

Frances Tiafoe | Photo Credit: atptour.com

The former world junior number two has undoubtedly demonstrated the ceiling of an upper echelon player on tour. He is one of only four players born 1997 or later to have reached the quarterfinal round of a grand slam (Zverev, Tsitsipas, and Rublev being the others). He reached another ATP final on top of his Delray title run in 2018, and has participated in the #NextGenATP Finals the past two seasons. And yet, despite clearly possessing physical talent and intangible tennis qualities equal to his greatest peers, his inability to string together consistent results threatens to derail his young career.

Why has Frances Tiafoe not displayed the same kind of week-in, week-out consistency as his fellow #NextGenATP rivals, and how concerning is that fact? While there have certainly been encouraging signs in his early career, there has now been enough turbulence to suggest it’s time to raise the alarm in the Tiafoe camp.

Frances Tiafoe | Photo Credit: washingtonexaminer.com

The brand of improvisational, keeps-you-on-your-toes tennis employed by Frances Tiafoe will always involve a degree of variance. When operating at his best, Tiafoe’s chip-n-charge tactics prevent opponents from obtaining an easy rhythm. His variety affords him opportunities to both play aggressively and engage crowds in ways that clearly provoke his highest level of play. He also possesses both the innate anticipation skills and hand-eye coordination bequeathed to only the best talents in the game. I mean, how many players on tour could manage this?!?!

What’s even harder than the on-the-run half-volley? How about the forehand-slice passing shot?

And while there are other players who could pull off the defensive tennis that Tiafoe executes against Raonic here, it DEFINITELY doesn’t get much better than this.

Part of the reason why Tiafoe’s game so broadly appeals to tennis fans is because of how different it is than everyone else’s. Watching Tiafoe improvise allows spectators to engage in a world where things they thought impossible on a tennis court become reality. His particular style of play conjures a delightful sense of imagination in the viewer. The sorts of tweeners and drop vollies most of us only feel comfortable whipping out on the practice court? Tiafoe not only tries those shots, but executes them in professional matches!!!!

From an entertainment standpoint, Tiafoe’s best highlights are as good as it gets.

It’s not just the extracurricular skills that Tiafoe succeeds at either. According to the ATP Stats Leaderboard, Tiafoe’s first serve percentage of 65.8% ranks 11th on tour over the past 52 weeks. The first serve has proven critical to Tiafoe’s game, as it allows him to set up the kind of plus-one, get-to-the-net tennis that produces his best results. And though Tiafoe ranks 69th in percentage of first serve points won, 43rd in percentage of second serve points won, and 61st in overall percentage of service games won over that same time frame, it’s clear he possesses both the necessary service pop and placement to someday employ a Top 50 serve on tour.

On the other side, while Tiafoe’s return numbers are far from Djokovician, the success he’s had returning second serves provides another reason to remain optimistic about his future. He ranks 36th on tour over the past 52 weeks with a 49.9% win percentage on opponents second serve points, and seems to have already developed effective attacking patterns on those returns. Look at how Tiafoe sets up the point with his backhand return here, and how comfortable he seems moving forward behind the shot:

A clear theme has emerged: When given time to be aggressive and attack, Tiafoe can look as good as any player on tour. On a surface level, the results he’s accumulated indicate an immensely physically gifted player who at the very least should have no problem maintaining a place in the Top 75 of the ATP rankings for the foreseeable future. And any player with Tiafoe’s improvisational talent has probably also mastered the nuances of the basic forehand and backhand as well, right? Well, that’s where things get a little more tricky for Tiafoe.

Frances Tiafoe Celebrates Victory Against South Africa’s Kevin Anderson |Photo Credit: PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images

51-54. That’s the record Frances Tiafoe has compiled in ATP Tour-level matches over the past two seasons. Remove his 10-15 record at grand slam events, and things look even bleaker. A 41-39 at the ATP 250, 500, and Masters Level may be good enough to keep a player in the Top 100, but those are awfully thin margins to try and get by on.

Though he did not go on a prolonged losing streak during the 2018 season, he ended his year winning one match or fewer at his last ten ATP events. In 2019, he suffered a similar eight event stretch from Rome through Cincinnati. He also ranked 74th of 81 players on the ATP Stats Leaderboard during the 2019 season in percentage of deciding sets won, accumulating a 5-13 record in three-set matches. Throw in the fact that he lost his last five three-set matches in 2018, and suffered three five-set losses at the 2019 majors, and it becomes clear that something has gone awry for Frances during crunch time.

Frances Tiafoe | Photo Credit: tennis.com

The cause of his problems: the forehand. Dating back to his first appearance on Colette Lewis’s Youtube channel in 2014, Frances Tiafoe’s forehand has looked funky. The eccentric takeback. The elongated backswing. The fact that his racquet sits completely parallel to the court prior to making contact with the ball. None of it looks ordinary.

That Frances has yet to find a solution to his forehand technique struggles remains a problem. Opponents have realized that if they attack the Tiafoe forehand with enough discipline and pace, they can draw bundles of unforced errors from him. They can also, as Denis Kudla demonstrates above, coax an ill-timed, reflexive forehand slice from Tiafoe that either floats out or can be easily attacked. That Tiafoe ranked 65th of 81 players during the 2019 season with a paltry 26.6% win percentage on opponents first serve points speaks to how opponents have recognized their ability to coax weak forehand returns from him.

Daniil Medvedev repeatedly served to the Tiafoe forehand side to open up the court during their first round encounter in Australia, and more often than not found success in the play.

A player cannot possess such a glaring weakness and hope to succeed at the highest levels of the ATP Tour. While it’s currently impossible to find a statistic for how often Tiafoe’s opponents target his forehand return in the biggest moments, the number would almost assuredly measure out to “a f*&k ton”. And yes, watching Tiafoe chip forehand returns is a staple of any Tiafoe-viewing experience, and can often lead to the sort of improvisational sequences that showcase Frances at his best. But for any player with aspirations to reach and maintain a place in the ATP Top 10 rankings, the inconsistency of Tiafoe’s forehand just isn’t good enough.

Frances Tiafoe | Photo Credit: oddsmarket.com

Consider Tiafoe’s performances at the slams. On the surface, his 10-15 record suggests the same sort of inconsistency that has plagued him at the 250, 500, and Masters levels. A closer examination, however, reveals both an area of concern, and a reason to be cautiously optimistic.



Ten first-round slam losses aren’t a great look for any player, and that Tiafoe has advanced beyond the 2nd round only twice in fifteen main draw appearances is not great. However it is worth noting that:



A) Two of Tiafoe’s first round losses came before he had turned 18.

B) EIGHT of his fifteen losses have gone five sets

C) Four of his last seven slam losses have been in five sets

D) TWELVE out of his fifteen losses at slams have come against higher seeded players

E) He’s lost two five-set matches to Fabio Fognini at majors, three matches to Alex Zverev, one to both Federer and Nadal, and five-set thrillers to both Khachanov and Isner.

Talk about bad luck. Still, while it hasn’t worked out perfectly, clearly something about the best-of-five-set format brings out the best tennis from Frances Tiafoe. As previously mentioned, he knocked off both Kevin Anderson (4) and Grigor Dimitrov (20) to advance to the quarterfinals of the 2019 Australian Open, becoming one of only four guys born 1997 or later to reach that stage of a slam. Tiafoe’s physicality also shines brightest in the best-of-five-set format, and despite taking multiple losses, he continues to threaten higher seeds at grand slam events.

That Tiafoe pretty quickly followed that 2019 Australian Open quarterfinal breakthrough by defeating Kecmanovic, David Ferrer, and David Goffin to reach his first career Masters quarterfinal in Miami speaks to the role that confidence plays in a tennis player’s results, and perhaps provides a bit of evidence that Tiafoe canstring some quality results together if confident.

Frances Tiafoe | Photo Credit: washingtonpost.com

At a bare minimum, after getting to watch him play almost three full seasons on the ATP Tour, what’s become clear is this: A locked-in, confident Frances Tiafoe can compete with any other tour player on any given day. The question for Tiafoe boils down to: Can he manage to squeeze by using the same invaluable physical assets and improvisational skills that have helped him reach this point, or will he continue to be stalled by a clearly vulnerable forehand that opponents target more frequently with every passing match?

In terms of regaining his footing in the ATP rankings in 2020, one can look at Tiafoe’s chances from a “Glass half-full” or “Glass half-empty” perspective. The “Glass half-full”: Outside of the upcoming Miami Masters QF from last year, he really doesn’t have that many points to defend!! The “Glass half-empty”: he REALLY doesn’t have many points to defend, and given his current standing in the rankings, may not gain entrance into either of the Sunshine Masters’ main draws this season.

Should he enter the clay court swing hovering around the Top 100, which will be the case should his Miami points not be fully replaced, Tiafoe’s priority must immediately shift. He will need to ensure his ranking is in a place that will guarantee him direct entrance into the summer slam main draws. That pathway will undoubtedly involve a combination of ATP 250s and Challenger events. There’s no shame in playing those events, but let’s be honest, it is an arduous path from the Challenger Circuit immediately back to the ATP Top 30. While certainly possible, it feels unlikely that portion of the ATP singles rankings will include Frances Tiafoe anytime soon.

Frances Tiafoe | Photo Credit: US Open Tennis Championships

It’s far too early in the career of Frances Tiafoe, and he is far too gifted of an athlete, to write him off as “having reached his ceiling”. You don’t get that close to beating that many top seeds at the slams, reach a grand slam quarterfinal, or win an ATP title if you don’t possess an abundance of talent. But, at a certain point, close losses have to turn into victories. If a player hopes to reach the height of the men’s game, one great week of tennis has to evolve into multiple weeks of stellar performances. And, if you’re asking me if I’m starting to get concerned about Frances Tiafoe’s lack of repeated stellar performances, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

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