It has been an odd season for Southampton FC. Failure in the Europa, oh-so-near brilliant success in the EFL Cup, a lot of meh in the league. They endured their usual talent bleed in the summer, Sadio Mané and Victor Wanyama heading north, and started slowly. They also suffered a huge slump around the turn of the year, perhaps with their minds on Wembley, at one point losing six of seven. Their best player was lost to injury in late January. Yet they seem poised for another top-half finish in the top flight, their fourth in a row, a club record. Odd indeed. Let’s take a look at the stats and tactics that have defined their season.

Claude Puel is a great believer in the short passing game. Southampton play only 13.0% of their passes long, sixth lowest in the league. Spurs play more long balls than Southampton, and the only sides that play fewer are Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea. At the same time, though, the Saints are in the top half of the league in aerial duels, ahead of such teams as West Bromwich Albion and Everton, both of whom send a fair number of long balls to the striker.

The probable explanation for this discrepancy lies in crosses. Under Ronald Koeman, Southampton were consistently one of the top crossing teams in the league. In his first year, they sent in 25.1 crosses/game, second only to West Ham; in his second, a nearly identical 25.2 crosses/game, second only to Crystal Palace. Puel, surprisingly, has taken this even farther. This year the Saints are up to 25.4, top of the league.

What makes it stranger is that this season, Southampton have lacked a particularly good target man. Koeman at least had Graziano Pelle, who although erratic could be excellent when in form. Charlie Austin was Southampton’s best this season, but he lasted only 13 games, and Shane Long, though no embarrassment at that position, isn’t the sort to carry your scoring load.

In fact, the Saints have managed very little output from all those crosses. Last year, the side scored a remarkable 10 headed goals from open play and 15 overall. This year, only one from open play and three overall. It’s not for lack of trying: last year they attempted 2.7 headers/game, this year 2.6. Part of the drop-off is Long: he was excellent last season (five headed goals), ordinary this (only one, in half the minutes). But the change reflects an overall huge drop in crossing efficiency.

The conclusion is that Puel hasn’t been maximising his attacking resources. But note we could have said the same of Koeman in his first year, when Southampton scored only three headed goals. Crossing is notoriously difficult to get right, and to rely on it as a major source of goals is always chancy. Last year everything came together in the air for the Saints, but it’s not likely to do so again any time soon.

On a more encouraging note, Puel does belatedly seem to have figured out how to get the most out of Dusan Tadic, in the hole behind the striker. (I’ve been beating that drum for two years, so I’m biased.) He started the season well at the tip of a diamond formation, but as the system gradually morphed into a 4-3-3 he was shunted to the wing. Finally, Puel went to the 4-2-3-1 that had been successful in previous years, and Tadic has flourished as a number 10, notching four of his five total assists in the last seven games. Even having been moved about, Tadic is third in the league among regulars in key passes per 90 minutes, behind only Kevin De Bruyne and Christian Eriksen.

Lots of key passes, not too many assists: that indicates a team that hasn’t been finishing the way it should. At the beginning of the year their scoring difficulties were tied to poor shot selection: the Saints took an inordinate number of their shots outside the penalty area. Over the course of the season that’s changed significantly – in fact, they’re below the average in that category now – but their expected goals per shot still ranks 15th in the league, ahead only of Burnley, Sunderland, Watford, Hull, and Middlesbrough.

Actually converting those shots has been even more of a problem. You think Manchester United have had trouble putting it in the net, at a 9.2% conversion rate – Southampton’s is much worse, 8.0%, ahead only of Middlesbrough. (For comparison, the two years under Koeman were a good 10.7% and a very good 11.4%. Ten percent is about average.) The bottom line puts their attack 5.7 goals behind their expected goals for the season, the worst underperformance in the league.

When we turn to defence, we find struggles as well. Early in the season the back line was solid, with Virgil van Dijk developing into one of the most complete centre-halves in the league. His injury put a big hole in the middle of defence. With Van Dijk in the lineup this season, Southampton have allowed 1.1 goals/game, but without him 1.7.

But it isn’t just van Dijk’s absence that’s the problem. Whether he’s been in or out of the lineup, Southampton have been allowing more goals than they should. Overall, they’ve conceded 5.4 more goals than their expected goals allowed would suggest. And here the culprit is very clear: Fraser Forster.

In an earlier statistics article, we saw the stats showing that Forster was having a bad year as a shot-stopper. Here’s the updated version. Southampton’s defence is currently doing slightly better than average in expected goals per shot allowed. But Forster’s save percentage is only 60.0%, better than the 58.7% we saw before, but still well below the league average of 67.2%. As we’ve noted, there’s a fair amount of luck involved here, but if you’ve watched Forster this year you know he hasn’t been at his best.

So subpar shooting and subpar keeping, and you get a side that’s on pace to get 49 points, 14 fewer than last year, 11 fewer than the year before, and seven fewer than the year before that, their one full year under Mauricio Pochettino. That they’re a decent bet for eighth place is a sign of the weakness of the league, or if you prefer, the dominance of the top seven (bravo Everton).

Some Saints fans have criticised Puel’s rotation policy, feeling it cost them advancement in the Europa League, and has kept them behind the curve all season. But he’s stuck to his guns, adamant that fixture pileup made it necessary. Recently, with fewer games on the schedule, he’s rotated less.

But stick or twist, one thing has remained constant: they’re helpless against the top sides. In nine games against Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, and Arsenal, they’ve earned a grand total of one point, a draw at the Eithad in October. Puel’s tactics against the big boys, even at home, are generally pretty conservative – a good example is the 4-4-1-1 last weekend against Man City – and inevitably they get outplayed. They still have Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal on the schedule, too, which means that eighth place may not be such a good bet after all.

So even with the near-miss at Wembley, it’s hard to label this season a success, particularly with the Europa disappointment. But there’s some good news as well. If you add the 5.7 goals they’ve underperformed in attack to the 5.4 goals they’ve underperformed in defence, you get a total of 11.1, a huge underperformance overall. Only Stoke and Manchester City have done worse. That means Southampton have been playing better than their results, and when that happens, things usually bounce back the next year.

If you look at the squad, too, you see signs of optimism. Oriol Romeu has been fine as Wanyama’s replacement. Tadic looks great behind the striker. Nathan Redmond is still only 23. Sofiane Boufal is another good young talent, and may be starting to adjust his dribble-first-ask-questions-later game to fit in. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is even younger, and while he definitely needs to think quicker in possession, he looks like he belongs at this level. Jack Stephens is learning at centre-half, but is a genuine prospect. James Ward-Prowse is improving. Manolo Gabbiadini makes a big difference up front – I love a striker whose runs are even better than his finishes.

What do the side need most next year? One word: pace. They’re no threat at all on the counterattack. In that draw at the Etihad, several times they broke forward when a City attack failed, but even against a weak back line never produced a good scoring opportunity.

The odds are they’ll have a chance to get that pace in the summer, and maybe a good deal more. Virgil van Dijk is under contract until 2022 (not a typo), so it’s a seller’s market, and if Southampton decide to cash in they’ll get a huge fee to reinvest. Maybe Claude Puel can be convinced to cut down on the number of crosses, too. When someone comes to write this column next year, the Saints will probably be ready to make it five in a row in the top half of the table. Given the turnover at the club, that’s outstanding. And if only Romeu’s header at Wembley had been three inches to the left…

Peter Goldstein