Stephen Holder

stephen.holder@indystar.com

INDIANAPOLIS — Black Monday has come and gone, and the color most associated with the Indianapolis Colts franchise right now is gray.

As in cloudy.

Owner Jim Irsay hasn’t clarified the fate of his coach and general manager, Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. But his silence speaks volumes.

History tells us a few things, too. Organizational changes can come well after Black Monday, the day after the NFL regular season ends. Make no mistake: This might not be over.

Let’s begin with what we know. Pagano said he was scheduled to meet with Irsay on Monday afternoon. The specifics of that meeting remain unknown, but multiple sources describe the Colts’ coaching staff as being in limbo, uncertain of Irsay’s ultimate decision. That suggests no assurance was offered if Pagano did meet with Irsay.

We also know Grigson remains in his current job and met with a number of Colts players early this week.

So, on one hand, it’s business as usual at Colts headquarters. But until Irsay offers clarity, no one can truly move forward in earnest.

The historical reference for this lies in the Colts’ very recent past. Black Monday is sometimes just the start. Pagano’s predecessor, Jim Caldwell, was fired on January 17, 2012 — two weeks after the season ended. An extreme example is the Tennessee Titans’ firing of former coach Jeff Fisher on Jan. 28, 2011. Other prominent coaches fired after Black Monday include Lovie Smith (Buccaneers) and Jon Gruden (Buccaneers).

Also relevant here is Irsay’s mindset. He has shown a history of not rushing decisions. That was the case a year ago, when he let Pagano go an entire season without a contract extension, finally deciding after its conclusion to grant the lame-duck coach an extension.

“Sometimes the decision-maker, which is the owner in this case, you have to be able to hear, and hear the things at the right moment, at the bewitching hour, and then you will make that decision at that flashpoint moment in the 11th hour,” Irsay said in September of the decision to re-sign Pagano. “That’s the truth. It’s not always pre-decided. Sometimes it is. A lot of times is. But in this case, it wasn’t. This case organically came together.”

That’s as good an indication as any that, when it comes to Irsay, everything is on the table — on Black Monday or any day.

If Irsay indeed is considering changes, there’s not yet significant pressure to act. That’s because other teams with coach and general manager openings are still in the early stages of their searches. None of the six teams with coaching openings has made a hire yet, though interviews are in full swing.

Right or wrong, Pagano seems to be the party who should be most concerned. It is Pagano, after all, who was nearly let go at the conclusion of the 2015 season. Irsay’s decision to offer Pagano only a one-year contract extension after reaching the AFC Championship Game in the 2014 season was an early indication of Irsay’s uncertainty about his coach.

Irsay’s own words are applicable here, too. There have been instances where he’s disagreed with or expressed disappointment in his coach — Irsay's criticism of the run defense after the AFC Championship Game, for example — whereas those things have not been evident with Grigson.

Irsay and Grigson have shown themselves to be very like-minded. Each has expressed the belief that Pagano might benefit from an edgier coaching style. That difference of opinion has impacted the profile of players the team acquires, because of a feeling stronger personalities won’t fit well in Pagano’s environment.

“I think that Ryan has a higher tolerance than Chuck, but Chuck has upped his tolerance and his patience,” Irsay said in September. This has proven a consistent sticking point between Pagano and Grigson.

In any case, uncertainty still rules.

In the end, maybe nothing comes of all this. Maybe Pagano and Grigson continue in their respective roles for the foreseeable future. Or, maybe surviving Black Monday just delayed what’s about to come.

Follow IndyStar Colts Insider Stephen Holder on Twitter: @HolderStephen.

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