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Ice and cold were supposed to be a thing of the past, global warming theorists insisted some years ago. But that hasn’t been true.

The problem is that the natural factors clearly dominate, and the experts had forgotten all about them. Winters with snow and ice are just as likely as they ever were in the northern hemisphere. This year could even get brutal.

Meteorological analyst wobleeibtdieerderwaermung here delivers his latest updated forecast for the European winter, borrowing from Weatherbell.com here and others.

Forecast from 30 November 2016 for the northern hemisphere for December 2016 through February 2017. shows that the winter risks being an icy one for global warming infatuated Europe and USA.

Chances for white Central Europe Christmas above average

The Arctic polar vortex is expected to split in mid December and is forecast to usher in a larger wintery pattern, thus improving the chances for a snowy Christmas for Germany and Europe, the German site reports:

The stratospheric models form the ECMWF (Europe) and GFS (USA) today are in rare agreement with a dipolar of the polar vortex in mid December.”

ECMWF projected geopotentials at 150 hPa (approx. 14 km altitude, lower stratosphere) of 7 December 2016 for 17 December 2016. The vortex over Canada is the stronger of the two. A powerful cold trough of the polar vortex (Rossby waves) lies across Eastern Europe, pumping in very cold polar air. A powerful high extends from the Azores all the way to the North Pole (+). Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/html.

The following chart shows the GFS December 8, 850 hPa (ca. 1500m) forecast for the northern Hemisphere for December 19:

A major low pressure system centered over eastern and southern Europe could lead to a cold and moist polar air mass moving over Europe, leading to widespread snowfall. Source: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html.

The calculated change in the stratosphere will impact the general weather pattern in the underlying troposphere, with blocking highs over the eastern north Atlantic and lows over southern and eastern Europe. This would be the start of an intense winter weather pattern with widespread snowfall over large parts of Europe and Germany around December 19.

Temperature forecast for December 19:

Crystal-balling out to Christmas Eve

The GFS model forecast of December 8, 2016 shows an extensive low over southern Scandinavia pumping in cold moist air to Europe, which would bring widespread snow (see chart below). Source: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/html.

Of course readers have to keep in mind that these forecasts two weeks out are very speculative, and so it’s too early to place your bets. The patterns are unstable and it is impossible to predict where the cold polar air plunges will actually happen. Central Europe could get hit head-on, or we might luck out and get hit head-on by a southern warm air mass. Personally I prefer the cold snowy version for Christmas.

PS: The latest GFS model runs show seasonal temperatures for Central Europe in the days leading up to Christmas, with temperatures hovering around the freezing point.