by Nhia Moua ON September 26, 2014

“The Big Picture” is a series of introspective pieces about the inner-workings of the NBA.

In this, the first piece of the series, we look at the dynamics and hurdles of being labeled a Fringe level player in the NBA, and how Jeremy Lin’s path into the league may have been more improbable than even Linsanity itself.

Labeled without Potential

Just over four years ago, Jeremy Lin – fresh off his graduation from Harvard University – had just officially declared for the 2010 NBA Draft. At the time, the 21-year-old Lin was regarded by many NBA scouts as a fringe 2nd Round Draft talent; the type of player whose ceiling could potentially be that of an average role-player in the league if every aspect of their basketball skills matured perfectly – but whose realistic career projection was that of a player who would spend a few years in the league before bottoming out.

As a fringe Draft talent, Lin – along with countless other fringe Draft talents who had declared for the 2010 NBA draft – were labeled as the type of players who were low-risk and low-reward; if a team missed out on one of them, they weren’t missing much. In a sea of hundreds of unknown and unproven talents, Lin was just another player given the label of having mediocre-but-unlikely potential; a label that nearly ended his career.

To understand how Jeremy Lin’s career almost ended before it even got a chance to begin – one unwritten rule must be understood about how the current NBA goes about evaluating its young players – and the rule is this: Potential is everything when it comes to youth.

Lebron James was “The Chosen One,” before he even finished High School. Kevin Durant was a talent to rival the dynamic wings that came before him. Greg Oden was a talent to rival Hakeem Olajuwon. Current Rookies, Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker have been dubbed future stars since they were (and still are) teenagers. The list goes on and on with the names of highly touted young players who have, are or will be labeled as their ceilings – as their highest potential counterparts. So don’t get it twisted – the word “potential” is the sexiest word in the NBA – and the easiest way to categorize that potential is to label it; to call it a name and slap it onto a player.

This tradition of labeling young potential to their “ceilings,” is not practiced for all young players however – for in fact – this kind of labeling occurs only for a select few. It occurs only for those who have been highly touted for countless years – for those who have always been the blue chippers of their class each and every year, for those who have been followed methodically since their teenage years; it is, has, and seemingly will always continue to be reserved for the Jabari Parkers, LeBrons and Andrew Wigginses of the world.

How “Potential Labeling” Works

In contrast between the Parkers, Lebrons and Wigginses of the world – fringe Draft talents operate in a reversed dynamic in regards to how their basketball potentials are evaluated by the league. For in reality, fringe Draft talents are labeled by the majority of NBA teams in terms of their potential “floor,” or as the worst player they could end up being rather than their potential ceilings.

The reason for this difference in “potential labeling,” is because in the latter stages of the Draft, most NBA teams’ process of evaluating young talent begins to shift – so instead of simply drafting players with the highest potentials – teams begin to prioritize more on saving money and avoiding risk and less about actually gaining a player who may potentially have real talent.

To further explain this phenomenon of “potential labeling” – where fringe Draft talents are not given ceiling potential labels while their “top tier” counterparts are – we must understand that if a player is not given a label for their ceiling potential, they are then usually given a label in regards to their floor potential, or the worst player they can become. The reason for this is because fringe Draft talents are largely assumed (whether correctly or not) to have ceilings of “role-players,” and as such are not expected to become Superstar or All-Star talents even in their best case scenario. Because of this, the appeal for NBA teams to follow the time honored Drafting philosophy of “always drafting the player with the highest ceiling potential,” becomes irrelevant the moment a team has made up their minds that all the players left in the draft have ceilings of only role-players, for after this point in NBA logic, why should any team draft a player who has an unlikely ceiling of “just an average role-player” (but also has a “likely floor of bust”) when instead the “safer” strategies would be to draft the players with the highest floors in order to minimize bust chances – or to go even one step further and actually draft a “Euro-Stash player,” an overseas player who is drafted specifically for the purpose of never playing in the NBA. (Yes, this is a real thing – and it is very common.)

When NBA teams then ask all of these mitigating questions while accounting for roster spots, luxury taxes and the like – selecting players with the highest floor potentials over players with the highest ceiling potentials make “sense” late in drafts – and this is what the current NBA logic and philosophy is based on. It is the groundwork for why high draft talents are “potentially labeled,” as their ceilings, while fringe draft talents are potentially labeled as their floors.

Breaking the Label

If somebody is reading this and thinking that the NBA philosophy of drafting players for their “potential floors,” over their “potential ceilings” can’t possibly be real because the NBA can’t be so stupid that it actually believes that potential stops mattering at some point, you need only examine recent NBA Drafts of the modern era before the existence of this philosophy will become evident.

For example, active NBA players who slipped through into the latter stages of the Draft, (or went Undrafted completely) despite their good “potential ceilings,” did so because their “potential ceilings,” were never going to be as important as their “potentially dangerous floor.” This is the exact definition of what “Potential Labeling,” is – and it is clearly in motion in every modern NBA draft.

Players who underwent this Potential Labeling drafting process (of being passed over because their floor was less appealing than their ceilings) would be; Lance Stephenson (40th Pick, because his floor was: Crazy-and-selfish player), Chandler Parsons (38th Pick, because his floor was: White-Slow-Footed-Pretty-Boy), Paul Milsap (47th Pick, No Defense & Too Short), Wesley Matthews (Undrafted, All he could do was score – and his scoring ability wouldn’t translate), Monta Ellis (40th Pick, Too Small to play SG), Marc Gasol (48th Pick, Too Un-Athletic and Slow to Defend in the NBA), Carlos Boozer (35th Pick, Not Athletic – Does Nothing But Rebound), Manu Ginobili (57th Pick, Can’t Shoot) and of course, Jeremy Lin (Undrafted, Not athletic and has a weak body).

And if that list of active NBA talents wasn’t enough to prove that the “floor potential,” drafting strategies of the NBA are real and pervasive late in the Draft, a recent-generational (Last 20 years) list of players who went either Undrafted or were 2nd Round Draftees would include names such as – Stephen Jackson, Michael Redd, Jeff Hornacek, and Ben Wallace.

The amazing thing about these two lists is that it only includes players who in their primes were All-Star level talents – so we are not just talking about a higher than predicted number of “average role-players,” here but actual All-Stars who were completely missed out by THE ENTIRE LEAGUE.

For further appreciation of these All-Star talents, let’s take a look and admire the combined total accolades for these 13 players – which includes 12 NBA All-Star appearances, 5 Defensive Players of the Year and 6 NBA Titles. Just think about that – in the last 20 years, the league has misjudged the talent of (at least) 12 NBA All-Star talent seasons, and this is not even counting Lance Stephenson’s All-Star snub last year, or Marc Gasol’s, Lance Stephenson’s and Chandler Parson’s very likely All-Star appearances some time in the future. The league didn’t just miss out on All-Star talents one or two times – it missed out at least a dozen times in just the recent past – and that number will only continue to grow.

Realities of Being labeled a Fringe-Player in The League

Before getting caught up in the wonder of the 13 All-Star level players who “broke the label,” of being dubbed fringe talent players – it is important to realize that the breaking of their mishandled labels were not an easy task to achieve. For even if these players (in hindsight) obviously had the talents to make it in the league, it needs to be noted that virtually all of the 13 All-Star level players had their breakout seasons in their First or Second (and very rarely) Third Seasons.

These breakout years are important to note, because for example, “Linsanity,” occurred in Jeremy Lin’s Second year in the league – but conversely, if Lin would’ve been destined to break out any time later, even in his Third year instead of his Second year, that change would’ve been devastating to Lin’s basketball-career, since in all likelihood, had Lin not broken out in his Second year, he likely would have been cut in the off-season and effectively kicked out of the NBA for good – as he would’ve had neither the Draft pedigree or NBA accolades to earn another shot in the league. And the takeaway from this example is a simple: Players who are labeled as Fringe Draft players (Even if they were mislabeled) literally only have one or two chances to launch their career.

Building on this knowledge – it is then clear to see that current NBA draft and Roster Politic philosophies create situations where most fringe Draft talents are perpetually put in positions to fail. And this state of “pre-determined failure” occurs most predominantly because a fringe Draft talent’s opportunity to reach their ceiling is immediately destroyed the moment they enter the league, due to the fact that management never really believes in them to begin with – and so subsequently – will not give them time to mature. Conversely, highly-touted and drafted players will always be more diligently invested in (both in terms of monetary contracts and coaching resources) and will always receive abundant opportunities for growth and experience – while also being granted grace periods even if they should struggle with these opportunities.

This current NBA atmosphere of consistently nurturing highly-touted players, while giving limited opportunities to fringe-level-players is also the biggest reason why there is so much turn-over in terms of NBA Rosters from year to year. The roster turn-over occurs because the few fringe Draft talents who are lucky enough to make it onto an NBA team are then typically allowed 1 or 2 years to hurriedly turn themselves into their “potential ceilings,” of NBA caliber role-players – despite the fact that even most 1st round picks aren’t expected to truly pan out until year 3 or 4. When inevitably most of these perceived fringe-talents then “fail,” when their short and unrealistic deadline has expired, they are replaced by the current year’s NEW crop of fringe Draft talents who inherit the same unrealistic deadlines and lack of opportunities their predecessors had.

The Odds of Linsanity

As we now come back full-circle with an in-depth understanding of how NBA teams form the lowly opinion of Fringe-Draft talents – and then proceed to short-change Fringe-Draft talents so they become exactly what they were labeled to be – it becomes clear that when Jeremy Lin was classified and perceived as a fringe Draft talent, Lin was also then accordingly labeled with a floor potential instead of a ceiling potential, and as such, he must have been viewed by most NBA teams in regards to the worst player he could possibly become.

So while in reality, Jeremy Lin was going into the 2010 NBA Draft with a plethora of traits the current NBA demands for success – such as a quick first step, and the ability to create for himself and others on Pick N’ Rolls or Dribble-Drives; Lin’s perceived Floor potential – that he was not quick enough to defend at the NBA Level, that his frame was too thin and that he lacked wingspan – still spoke louder than his positives to NBA teams. And even though this didn’t really make logical sense in a vacuum, the NBA logic was too strong. Late in the draft, teams draft for safe floors and the perception of Lin’s “low” floor was stronger than any potential ceiling he had. Every one of the 30 NBA teams agreed with this. Lin could not overcome the label that had been given to him – at least not for now – and he went Undrafted.

Four Years Later

If Jeremy Lin were to have been drafted – it would have happened in the Second Round of the 2010 NBA Draft.

In the Second Round of the 2010 NBA Draft, 30 players were drafted. Of those 30 players drafted, only 6 players played in the previous 2013-14 NBA season. Those players are: Lance Stephenson, Jeremy Evans, Landry Fields, Hamady Ndiaye, Jarvis Varnado and Dexter Pittman.

This number will most likely decline however, since Hamady Ndiaye and Dexter Pittman will likely be out of the league by the time the 2014-15 NBA season begins. This means that by the upcoming season, only 4 of the 30 players, or 13.3% of the entire 2010 Second Round Draftees will still be playing in the NBA. It also means that when Jeremy Lin went Undrafted in 2010, his chances to make a career in the NBA could not have mathematically been higher than the 13.3% success rate of the 2010 Second Round Draftees who were chosen over him – and realistically speaking, Lin’s true odds of making the league were absolutely closer to zero than 13.3% since he didn’t have the staying power of being a 2nd Round Draft Pick on his side.

And yet despite all of those odds, Jeremy Lin remains. And as the NBA calender gets ready to roll into the 2014-15 NBA Season, Lin prepares to enter his first season as a Los Angeles Laker, his fifth season in the league, and his continuation of Linsanity.

Here’s A Fun Fact

Of the 24 players who no longer play in the NBA as of the 2013-14 season – but were selected in the Second Round of the 2010 NBA Draft (Jeremy Lin’s Declared Draft-Year) – the 24 Players’ Total Combined Career Games played is 233 Games. In comparison, Jeremy Lin has currently played 217 career games. After playing in 17 additional games this upcoming season, Lin will have surpassed the Total Combined Career Games played by all 24 ex-NBA Players who were drafted ahead of him as Second-Round Draftees in the 2010 NBA Draft.