Podcasting — a peculiar self-expression medium, wouldn’t you say so? The day I decided to dig into the history and the future of podcasting, I was surprised by what I found.

Podcasts are basically an evolved version of a radio show. The same way Netflix, Youtube, and every other video streaming service can be compared to cable TV.

And it makes sense in this world. The same way you want to access your favorite TV show anytime, anywhere, on any device and even binge-watch the whole season within one day, podcasts provide all of the same values.

Contrary to video streaming, podcasting is not so mainstream (well arguably it is, or will be very soon). Nonetheless, it took much more time to get into our lives, despite having a head start from a technical standpoint.

Here is the main gist of the article — during the next 10 years, podcasts will become as prominent and viable content medium as Youtube is right now.

That can be a surprise to you, but there is plenty of data to back up this bold statement.

In this story, I will explore:

History of podcasting Why podcasts are such a late bloomer Predictions for the podcast industry in this decade Benefits & drawbacks of podcasting My podcast experiment

Besides the data and my own experience, I have also contacted a few podcasters to get their thoughts and got some really interesting answers! These will be sprinkled in the relevant sections.

Warning: this article is more than 4,500 words which can take up to 19 min to read. If you don’t have time right now, consider saving or bookmarking this article for later.

Teaser: future looks bright for podcast industry.

A Brief History of Podcasting

Back in the 90s, it was known as “audioblogging” and of course I am not going to bore you with the whole history and all of the details. There is always Wikipedia for that. Here is a quick link to the “history of podcasting.”

Okay, let’s be real here, nobody actually reads Wikipedia in their spare time, do they? Here is the video of a brief history of podcasting :)

What you need to know is that before Apple added podcasting to iTunes (in 2005), it was a niche thing, trying to find its ground.

Heck, even the word “podcast” was only added to the New Oxford American Dictionary just in 2006.

From 2006, some big players and big numbers have started to appear in the podcasting world.

The Ricky Gervais Show held the title of the most successful podcast to date with 4.5 million downloads, up until 2011.

up until 2011. This American Life radio program started to offer a podcast version and was receiving an average of 2.5 million downloads per episode .

. The Adam Carolla Show began in 2009 and by 2011 overtook The Ricky Gervais Show with 59.6 million podcast downloads and currently holds a world record .

. In 2013, Apple announced that they have 1 billion podcast subscribers on iTunes.

Early podcasting was mainly made by networks and big media companies and there were no business models behind it.

The growth was steady and slow since the inception of podcasts, but nothing really changed. No advertising dollars were thrown, no huge selection of podcasts compared to other mediums.

But then came 2014.

You could say 2014 was the real year that sparked the real growth and attention of podcasting. It was the time when podcasts such as Joe Rogan Experience took off.

The money started flowing, the number of podcasts increased dramatically.

Take a look at the statistics and notice that from 2013–2014 the growth has accelerated, with huge bumps in the last 2 years.

…and the money followed…

I am getting a little ahead of myself, but as you can see in the graph above, by 2021 podcast ad revenue is expected to be over $1 billion.

However, as we are in a little crisis right now, with this whole virus thing, the $1 billion mark may not be hit in 2021, but that’s just the question of “when” and not “if.”

But enough about the past, let’s talk move the conversion to more interesting topics.

Why are Podcasts Getting so Popular Just Now?

There are 3 main ways to consume content:

Text

Audio

Video

First came the text (obviously), then we had the technology for audio and we moved on to video eventually.

Simple, right?

However, at some point video completely crushed the audio format even when podcasts were introduced at the same time as other video players on the market. A little timeline to illustrate:

Look at the growth of Youtube, Facebook is investing heavily in video, Twitch, and TikTok. It’s pretty clear that the 2010s were dominated by video.

One interesting statistics for you:

Video files take a lot of space compared to HTML websites or audio files, nonetheless, that’s almost the entirety of the internet traffic is there to accommodate just video.

From a technical standpoint, audio is much simpler than video and we only reached the decent capabilities to stream videos in the last decade (for the majority of the population). Podcasts had a massive head start here, but as we all know, it’s only catching up now.

I believe that there are a few reasons why podcasts are such a late bloomer. In no particular order:

Smartphones

Wireless earbuds

Media consumption habits

Availability of podcasts

Let’s cover the above topics in more depth.

Smartphones & Wireless Earbuds

Audio format kind of by default needs to be listed on a “portable” device. Since the down of Sony Walkman (some of you may not even know what it is), music was always going to have a portable side to it.

Before iTunes and iPods, podcasting had little chance to go big. The whole idea of the podcast is to “stream” or “download” it.

And to no surprise, once smartphones became mainstream, they started to drive the growth of podcasts.

Now the second part is only my assumption. I couldn’t find any data here, but it may be a little too early and nobody probably measured that.

However, I do personally feel the difference and see the potential.

I assume that the popularity and use of wireless earbuds will drive the growth of the podcast industry.

I only started listening to podcasts when I got my first wireless earbuds. Reason? Convenience.

I usually listen to podcasts while I am on the move or if I am at home — multitasking. And I am not alone.

More Than Half of Podcast Consumers Are Multi-tasking While Listening

And now image having headphones with a cable while working out, cooking, running, etc.

For me, it was a massive difference. If we take into account the growth of earbuds which are estimated to reach global revenues of around $7 billion by 2023, then it one thing becomes very apparent — a lot of people will have their ears plugged, probably even more than any cable headphones.

So combining my own experience + popularity of earbuds + growing podcast industry, it only seems natural that podcasts have a real chance of competing for the time you have earbuds in your ears.

If anyone knows any kind of data related to earbuds and podcasts, please comment and I will update this section.

Media Consumption Habits

We are living in a busy world and it does not seem to be slowing down.

We do have a pandemic at the moment, but that will pass eventually (as any other crisis) and hopefully, we will hop on the same train as before.

So, in a world where time is scarce, multi-tasking seems like a must. The data shows that nearly three out every four podcast listeners tune in to learn new things, this trend may drive the growth even further.

At least to the point where self-driving cars become a mainstream thing, as then video content will have a chance to compete in the commuting arena.

With the rise of Skillshare and Masterclass, it seems people are more than ever hungry to learn something new.

Adding to the same argument, videos are getting longer and longer. Remember the time where a Youtube video was up to 5 min long? Well not anymore!

And usually, for a video, you need to pay at least some attention to the screen (it varies a lot from the content), but either way, this takes a lot of your dedicated time, where podcasts can be a much more passive activity.

But learning is not the only thing. I think podcasts are breaking this “mystery” behind it and becoming a norm.

If before, listening to podcasts was unusual and it would raise more questions for people, nowadays podcasting is become mainstream, especially when celebrities and YouTubers are getting in on this hype train.

Availability of Podcasts

Naturally, growing demands bring in new players to the battlefield.

This means more genres, more niches will be covered, so everyone will be able to find something for their taste. Heck, there is even a podcast about swimming pools, if that is what you are into!

This one is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, I do feel (again my assumption here, as I cannot find data) that podcasts like Joe Rogan Experience are vital for the whole podcast industry and are responsible for its growth.

The keyword “joe rogan podcast” is searched for more than 321,000 times per month on Google (Ahrefs data). And with him bringing in a guest like Elon Mush or Robert Downey Jr. always introduces new people to this medium.

So the whole industry is getting more popular just now, as there were very little podcasters with such a big audience or influence 5–10 years ago.

This brings the whole argument to the close. But now, let’s discuss the most exciting part — the future!

The 2020s: The Decade of Podcasts

I am very excited!

I’ll tell you right of the bat — the future looks bright and there is still time to get into this medium.

The 2010s were the introduction period where the world got accused of podcasts. This decade is the growth stage!

Podcasts haven’t even hit $1 billion in ad revenue, while Youtube alone topped $15 billion in ad revenue in 2019, not to mention the industry as a whole.

Side note: not sure if comparing the whole podcasts industry to Youtube makes sense, but one is delivering audio, other video format content, which makes them, if not direct, then competitors from attetion and ad dollars point.

This means only one thing — with the expected growth and demand for podcasts, there will be a lot more money floating around.

Big Boys Are Investing

Apple & Spotify — two of the biggest podcasting platforms in the world are getting into the podcast area.

Well, technically Apple has been one of the early pioneers of podcasting, but only in 2019, they created a separate app for podcasts on desktop computers.

While Spotify is planning to invest $500 million in podcasts, Apple is planning to fund the original and exclusive podcasts.

When the tech giants are already starting to compete with each other and are throwing money around — you know things are about to heat up!

Unexplored Niches

There are only 900,000 podcasts out there (as of January 2020).

Yes, I said “only.”

I do like the comparison to Youtube, as I feel both of these platforms are quite similar, just one focuses on the video and another on the audio.

There are 31 million YouTube channels. Of course, not every Youtube channel could be transformed into a podcast (if we would try to replicate each channel), so takes this with a grain of salt.

Side note: I am not saying there should be 31 million different podcasts, but it just shows that not even 1 million people worldwide have tried to create a podcast.

Either way, my point is that there are still a lot of unexplored niches that have low competition.

Buzzsprout made an awesome article about “19 Untapped Podcast Ideas” and ideas for podcasts goes from pets, sailing, to welding and urban farming.

However, do have some common sense, probably not every niche needs a podcast, as this is only a medium — one form of content.

You wouldn’t make an action movie into a podcast, so when choosing a topic, make sure it fits the audio format.

What Do Podcasters Predict?

I have contacted a few of the podcasters to get their opinion about the future.

The question was:

What do you predict will happen with the podcast industry over the next 3–5 years?

Matt Giovanisci from MoneyLab:

I personally think it’ll slow down. I don’t think you’ll see many smaller companies or hobby folks starting podcasts. It’ll be dominated by major players like NPR and Gimlet and others. I feel a cooling is coming.

Beth Buelow, PCC from The Introvert Entrepreneur:

Awareness and consumption on the part of audiences will continue to grow. We’ll continue to see more people launching new podcasts, but the number of active podcasts (those producing at least an episode per month consistently) will eventually plateau (if it hasn’t already).

John Lee Dumas from Entrepreneurs on Fire:

The trend in podcasting over the next 3–5 years is going to be niching down into VERY topic specific shows. Gone are the days of launching a podcast on a broad and vague topic. Here to stay are the days of one podcast solving one problem in the best and most specific way possible.

Rob Walling from Startups for the Rest of Us:

Continued expansion, especially as podcasts become a standard feature in cars. I expect terrestrial radio will slowly migrate to podcasts, which means tremendous growth in listenership over the next 3–5 years.

Josh Kaplan from Business Casual:

It might not take 3 years but we’re going to see a content fork. Some creators will stick to RSS distribution and continue to make their content as accessible as possible. Others will sign deals with platforms and sell shows to the Spotifys of the world. Both marketplaces should exist. Some content needs more investment up front and some don’t. Netflix and YouTube both exist for video but you can tell pretty quickly which platform the content was created for. That fork will leave a lot of creative space wide open for new tools and companies.

Omar Zenhom from The $100 MBA:

Podcasting will continue to grow but the landscape will become a whole lot more competitive. I’ve seen this more and more highly produced, professionally delivered podcasts in every category in my 6 years of podcasting. I anticipate this to continue to happen at a greater scale in the years to come.

Amanda Boleyn from She Did It Her Way:

I predict there will be a more integrated approach across channels with podcasting being the front runner and as your main source of content for your business.

Mark Webster from Authority Hacker:

Production quality has been rapidly improving. These days, everyone has a top quality mic and crystal clear sound. I think listeners will come to expect this. I also think that the space is getting so busy that you really have to be unique. Cookie cutter shows that interview the same group of rotating experts isn’t going to cut it. You’ll have to stand out from the crowd to be noticed.

John Wall from Marketing Over Coffee:

Growth will continue, when you look at Radio and TV numbers, there’s still plenty of room for great podcast content.

Abagail and Emylee from The Strategy Hour:

We believe listenership will definitely increase as well as more niche podcasts hitting the scenes. Not only are podcasters creating their own online communities and followings, they are also creating their own network of podcasts, allowing them to show up alongside larger entertainment corporations. These podcast networks know what their audience is loving and then use that to expand into more shows.

So, What is Your Podcast Going to be About?

I am not even going to bother asking “if you are going to create a podcast” — after this article, it should be quite clear.

The new content consumption is on the rise and you don’t want to miss this wave if you are a content creator.

Let’s take a look at some of the benefits of podcasting.

1. Easy to create

Compared to video, podcasts are very easy. All you need is a microphone (you can buy a decent one for around $100-$200) and one software to record/edit.

That’s it.

No lights, expensive cameras, lenses, expensive laptops, no need to leave your house (good for introverts), etc.

You can either talk or read the script easily. Repeat quickly if you messed some parts and then easily edit it out.

The low barrier of entry is good, but the con is…well, that many people can do it! Competiton may be tougher than on Youtube.

2. A Deeper Connection with Your Audience

I think this is by far the most important aspect of podcasts.

Text is dull and videos can feel “too fake” or scripted. Of course, a podcast can also be 100% scripted and edited, but at least for now, they feel more like a conversation between friends or colleagues.

Yes, this will VARY a lot depending on the category and who is producing the podcast, but podcasts have a better chance of sounding “natural.”

Often, podcasts usually include a co-host or a guest, which means that these people are going to have a conversation one way or another. Yes, they have bullet points they need to go through, but that doesn’t take away the conversational feel.

And I love this!

If the podcast feels like a conversation with a friend or just like overhearing a conversation in a bar, then it makes it authentic.

This way you can show your audience your “true” self, you can connect with them better and they will feel like they know you.

And when you get statistics like “weekly podcast listeners spend an average of 6 hours and 37 minutes listening to podcasts per week” you see that there is a big opportunity to turn your casual audience into real fans of your brand or business.

3. High-Quality Audience

What is a “high-quality” audience? I guess that’s the question for each business or brand to answer, but podcasts attract wealthier and educated people:

45% are more likely to have a college degree

68% more likely to have a post-graduate degree

45% more likelihood of having a net household income of over $250,000

If these are the qualities of the audience you want to have, the podcast is the format to consider.

Also, podcast listeners spend a lot of time listening to podcasts. 82.4% listen more than 7 hours per week, which is an average an hour per day.

So if you have 1-hour long podcasts, you can theoretically keep a person engaged with you 7 hours/week.

Probably that’s a bit too much, but it shows that attention span is way higher than on other mediums.

4. Big $$$ to be Made

Very, very high CPM rates.

CPM: Cost per thousand, also called cost per mille, is a marketing term used to denote the price of 1,000 impressions.

It looks like the industry average is around $18 — $25 CPM which is a lot.

For comparison, the average CPM, for content creators on Youtube, is only $4.18 per 1,000 views.

You can check out this video that goes a little bit deeper into how much money podcasters make.

So with podcasting, you can earn around 5 times more than on Youtube, however, I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.

I do believe it’s far easier to get 1 view on a video than to get one podcast episode downloaded.

Still, there is quite a big gap and if we are accounting for the work required to make podcasts and a video, then in terms of hourly pay, podcasts seem ahead.

If you want more details of potential earning, there is a great podcast advertising calculator that you can check out.

What about the Drawbacks?

As with everything, podcasts are not perfect and have some downsides.

1. The podcast must be a regular thing.

Compared to text or videos, podcast seems to be the one type of content that people need to have regularly. Text and videos can have irregular schedules, but if you miss uploading the podcast, you may end up distancing yourself from your audience. The routine for most people is fixed, so habits form around when and how often you listen to podcasts.

2. Promotion can be very tricky.

I am not going into details because podcast promotion can be an article on its own. However, it seems that to promote your podcast, you need to do a lot of extra things (landing pages, websites, be a guest on another podcast, engage in social media, etc.). And it’s not a surprise that it is difficult, as 67% of people discover their favorite podcast by recommendation from others, which is basically word-of-mouth (probably the hardest form of advertising).

3. It’s difficult.

Although I did say that start-up costs are less than for a video and it seems that the barrier of entry is lower — it may be more difficult to build an engaged audience. Also, if you don’t actively try to engage with your audience, there aren’t any “likes” or “comments” section. You may feel like you are not getting any feedback and your only metric is “downloads.” This can be very demotivating.

What do Podcasters say about the drawbacks?

The question was:

What are the drawbacks of podcasting that may not be obvious to everyone?

Matt Giovanisci from MoneyLab:

Don’t know of any drawbacks besides the difficulty of growing an audience outside of Apple.

Beth Buelow, PCC from The Introvert Entrepreneur:

The number of podcasts over the past few years has increased exponentially. It’s very challenging to cut through the noise and capture the attention of listeners (especially when formerly radio-only programs, esp. from public radio, are now also highly professional podcasts that entered the market with a massive, already-built-in audience).

John Lee Dumas from Entrepreneurs on Fire:

Podcasting can be a very lonely profession. A 30-minute interview becomes hours of editing and marketing by yourself. I love podcasting because of the networking with amazing people and the enjoyment of sharing value to the world. But what most people do not see is the hours in the studio by myself, making Entrepreneurs on Fire the success it is.

Rob Walling from Startups for the Rest of Us:

The relentless publication pace is difficult at times, especially when you are trying to fit it in around a day job or running your own company. Done well, podcasts require deep thought and focus, and that means you have less energy for other work.

Josh Kaplan from Business Casual:

You don’t know your listener. You know that they are multitasking while listening and probably commuting or working out. Other than that, you don’t know how they found you, what they did after listening if they listen weekly or found us once and never came back. Spotify and Apple are starting to let us see what percent of an episode is listened to on average but after getting used to clicks and user logins in different mediums, we’re left with almost nothing. We’re not data enabled, we’re data deprived and probably exaggerating the value of what data we do have.

Omar Zenhom from The $100 MBA:

It takes time. Podcasting is a long term investment for your brand and audience growth. And with any long term investment, the fruits of your labor are not always seen immediately. It will take at least 6 months to a year before you start to see the benefits of consistently producing your podcast.

Amanda Boleyn from She Did It Her Way:

I think the drawback is the perceived complicated set up to just start. I feel like a lot of creators get overwhelmed by the idea of starting a podcast and never start because of it. The other drawback from a marketing standpoint is not being able to collect more specific data on your listener individually.

Mark Webster from Authority Hacker:

Podcasting is a fantastic engagement tool. There aren’t may better ways for your audience to get to you know and to build a trusting relationship with them. That being said, podcasting isn’t a massive traffic source for many. A lot of people expect to bring in a lot of new users using podcasting, but you can’t really compare it to SEO in that sense.

John Wall from Marketing Over Coffee:

Web content is easily searchable, podcast content not as much. This makes content more difficult to find, there’s no easier way to discover great podcasts then listening yourself. You can view this as a benefit though, this kind of organic growth is slow and steady.

Abagail and Emylee from The Strategy Hour: