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To: Interested Parties From: GBA Strategies Date: September 6, 2016

Poisonous Atmosphere for Republicans Endangers GOP Hold on KS-3

The extreme unpopularity of Governor Sam Brownback and Presidential nominee Donald Trump in Kansas’ 3

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Congressional District puts Republican Congressman Kevin Yoder in danger of losing a seat he has comfortably won in previous elections. While Yode r still retains a lead against his lesser-known Democratic opponent, small business owner Jay Sidie, there is a real path for the challenger that pu ts this district into play.

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This district is emblematic of Republicans’ struggles this year with college-educated voters—especially in suburban areas. Kansas’ 3

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CD has a very high share of voters with a college degree (61 percent); this group has very negative impressions of Donald Trump and even worse impressions of Brownback, driving dissatisfaction with the Republican brand. Even in this poisonous environment for Repub licans, this election is no slam dunk for Sidie and the Democrats. Republicans retain a significant registration advantage here, and Democrats will need to seriously commit the resources needed to overcome that gap as well as Yoder’s financial edge. But there is no question that Republicans will need to scramble to defend a district that they considered safe only weeks ago.

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Republicans still retain solid registration advantage here, but party strug gling.

Republicans enjoy a double-digit registration advantage in Kansas’ 3

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Congressional District (16 points), but registered Republicans are turning their backs on the party. In a generic matchup for Congress between unnamed candidates, a Democrat actually leads 42 – 39 percent. This is due to voters without a party affiliation choosing the Democrat by a 41 – 25 percent margin and nearly one in five registered Republicans (18 percent) backing the Democrat.

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Governor Brownback’s standing incredibly low—even among Republicans.

One of the most notable findings here is just how damaged Sam Brownback is in the 3

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District. Just 18 percent of likely voters view him favorably, with a staggering 70 percent offering a negative opinion of their Governor. A majority of registered Republicans (53 percent)

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Survey among 400 likely voters in Kansas’ 3

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Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between August 28-30

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