Forget about clinging to hopes that China, the world’s largest car market, will recover from its unprecedented two-year slump anytime soon.

Though concrete estimates on the financial toll of the coronavirus outbreak are still scarce, signs are emerging the final cost will far outweigh that of the 2003 SARS epidemic, when China’s auto market was one-sixth the size it is today, and smaller than Japan’s.

Companies from Tesla to Volkswagen and Toyota have warned they anticipate disruptions, while a top parts supplier predicted automakers will cut China production 15 per cent this quarter.

China’s car sales were already heading for the lowest in at least five years before the current outbreak forced authorities to lock down the epicenter of Wuhan city and beyond. Now, it’s unclear when consumers will come back to showrooms as 14 provinces and cities that accounted for almost 70 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product shut businesses and factories until at least the second week of February.

“The risks are enormous because of the sheer weight of China in the global market and its importance to trade,” said Jean-Louis Sempe, a Paris-based analyst at Invest Securities. “Predicting the seriousness of the epidemic is very difficult, but there’s no doubt the impact could be huge on factories, supply chains and domestic car sales.”

Should passenger-vehicle sales in China fall 20 per cent from last year’s 21.4 million units, that would threaten to end the country’s run as the world’s largest auto market, a rank it’s held for more than a decade.

General Motors and Honda are among the manufacturers with factories in the Wuhan region, while state-owned Dongfeng Motor Corp. is headquartered in the city of about 11 million people. Nissan and Peugeot-maker PSA Group also have assembly plants in Wuhan or the broader Hubei province and are partners with Dongfeng.

The effect is felt far beyond the Wuhan region. Tesla expects a potential 10-day delay in production ramp-up at its new Shanghai plant – its first outside the U.S. – because of the government-required shutdown.

GM, Toyota and Volkswagen also closed their plants at least through Feb. 9, taking heed from several provinces that advised companies not to resume operations any sooner than the extended holiday break.

In Germany, Wuhan’s links to the global industry were driven home this week when auto-parts supplier Webasto AG shut its headquarters in the Munich suburb of Stockdorf after at least four staff members became infected following the visit of a Chinese colleague.

Fears about the virus are pressuring foreign governments to repatriate their nationals, and many auto companies have helped with the effort. PSA, Honda and Nissan are evacuating expatriates and their families from the Wuhan area. Most also put limits on travel into China.