The ratio of deaths to the total population shows those states where deaths are having the greatest impact on the population. Based on the data used in the population estimates, nationally, there were 8.2 deaths per thousand people in 2015. For states, this ranged from a high of 11.8 deaths per thousand in West Virginia to a low of 5.2 in Utah. In addition to West Virginia, the other states with the highest ratios of deaths to the total population include Alabama, Pennsylvania, Maine and Mississippi. West Virginia and Maine have experienced natural decrease for the period between the 2010 Census (April 1, 2010) and July 1, 2015. Meanwhile, Alabama, Mississippi and Pennsylvania had more births than deaths in this period. The map below allows us to see how natural increase is playing out from state to state.

While only two states experienced natural decrease from 2014 to 2015, almost a third of all counties did. For counties, rather than look at the ratio of deaths to the total population (crude death rates), we will use the rate of natural decrease relative to the total population. This better identifies those counties without younger populations that could offset the losses from mortality with higher numbers of births. Ontonagon County, in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, has the highest rate of natural decrease at 13.2 per thousand. The top 10 counties by rate of natural decrease (shown in the table below) include mostly smaller counties (populations of less than 20,000). Citrus and Sumter counties in Florida are the exceptions with 2015 populations of over 100,000. All top 10 counties can be found in Michigan, Virginia, Nevada, Florida, New Mexico and California.

The locations of the counties with the greatest natural decrease shifts when only larger counties (those with populations greater than 100,000) are considered. Of counties above this population threshold (shown in the table below), Citrus County, Florida, has the highest rate of natural decrease at 10.5 per thousand. Seven of the top 10 larger counties with the highest rate of natural decrease are in Florida. The others are Barnstable County, Massachusetts, and Mohave and Yavapai counties in Arizona. In all but three of the counties at the top of the list, non-Hispanic Whites make up a much larger share of the population than in the nation as a whole.

The map below shows natural increase (or decrease) by county.