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Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash August 06, 2011, 02:06:17 PM #19 There are three classes of bitcoin investors; (disclaimer) I don't know how much research has been done into this, I have done none and am going to make up numbers.



Bitcoin early adopter / fan boys. Most of the wealth (and many of the people.. I have not been watching the board numbers, but if IRC is any indication..) in the forum probably fall into this category; they think BTC is hot sexiness that the world needs and this implementation has a good shot. Most of the wealth here has been from mining, early entrepreneurial endeavors, and to a lesser extent early cash investments. Despite the BTC epic fall from 31; most of these people are in the BLACK.



Bitcoin recent adopters, regular people. These people more likely didn't hear about bitcoin until more recently (deep into the 4->31 rally), or didn't immediately "get" bitcoin when they did hear about it. They have thrown more cash in, and their mining efforts have paid off less. A lot of this money came in when bitcoin was rallying above 10, thus most of these people are in the RED.



Fat cats / Govt Money. I can only speculate that the govt has bought a fair number of bitcoins; throwing a couple million bucks at something is nothing to them, and it would be silly not to have some of these at their disposal. Maybe not though. What definitely happened though, is that people who don't give two shits about bitcoin saw an amazing market; counted up total supply (<7M !!) and saw a good buy. This is primarily what caused the rally (and will inevitably cause the next). Smart managers made good money on this rally; but inevitably a lot of these firms/rich people lost money as well. Since they don't "get" bitcoin and only see a falling market, these are the most likely panic sellers, etc. Take the loss and move on; without a deep understanding and faith in bitcoin, this is the rational mode of action I imagine these firms to be taking.







The 2nd and third groups are probably past or in the 'panic' stage. The first group, you're probably right, is in the denial stage. That being said the people who "get" bitcoin probably believe bitcoin will be >31 USD again in the not too distant future. I think they are right; but time will tell.