He drops into the midfield a bit in transition, but most of his touches are coming much closer to goal, like a traditional forward. Toronto have to play differently as a result. The left winger has to track back, and TFC can’t get an easy numbers advantage in the middle. So far, by the metrics I provided above, though, it looks like those adjustments have been working fine.

THE FIRST ROUND MATCHUP

Those specific adjustments are probably okay against DC United. DC, especially since moving Russell Canouse to right back, and choosing to totally concede possession, have been worse and less aggressive at winning the ball in the midfield. That means TFC don’t need to drop Altidore off the backline in order to get more numbers on the ball in the middle - they should be fine possessing it regardless.

It’s interesting - if Altidore sits, the way TFC tends to play in his absence is well-suited to matching up against DC. How they usually play with Altidore, though, makes it a pretty poor match-up. DC mostly look to attack on the flanks in transition, and this is exactly where Toronto’s defense is vulnerable. Because Endoh and Laryea get so high, and Omar Gonzalez and Chris Mavinga are not great defending in space, Toronto are much, much more likely to concede shots on possessions that begin with long balls out to the wings. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to sit Altidore for this game both for his health and for the tactical matchup.

An additional interesting thing TFC do tactically is switch the point of attack frequently. Often, in possession, TFC will work the ball to one side of the field, and then rotate it back to Michael Bradley to hit a switch to the other side. Generally, the goal is to find a winger in space or one on one with the fullback. Russell Canouse, though only newly a right back, has actually been pretty good in those moments. He’s winning 70% of challenges from that spot, versus a 62% league average. It will be interesting to see if Canouse can maintain his positional discipline and not get caught drifting to the middle when the ball goes wide to the opposite side.

WHY TORONTO FC WON’T MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

The adjustments I called out above, that are necessary in Jozy’s absence, are probably fine, and maybe even preferred, against DC United. They definitely are not, however, against NYCFC, Philly, or Atlanta, all of whom make it a priority to get pressure to the ball and control the middle. Toronto will need Jozy’s passing ability and hold-up play for them to have a chance at beating the top teams in the East. And, even if Altidore is in the lineup, Toronto have a very clear achilles’ heel: they are brutal defending in transition out wide.

WHY TORONTO FC WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

Between Jozy, Pozuelo, Michael Bradley, and Omar Gonzalez, TFC’s top-line talent is superb. They just drew with LAFC 1-1 on the road! While they may no longer have a guy like Giovinco or Vasquez, this is still a team loaded with offensive star power. The playoffs aren’t run of the mill matches. Individual moments of brilliance and individual mistakes can and will make a difference in these kinds of games. Having been to two of the last three finals, Toronto have talented personnel with plenty of postseason experience to draw from. Greg Vanney knows what has to be done to be successful. Toronto FC won’t be overawed by the occasion and that will serve them well.



