The 2010s has been a tough decade for coal in the US with capacity declining by over 80 GW while generation has plummeted from over 1,847 TWh in 2010 to 960 TWh in 2019.

2019 was a particularly rough year with capacity declining by over 14GW while generation declined by over 180 TWh - almost 16%.

You would think the market might pause in 2020 and coal would recover somewhat - but if anything it appears that coal's decline could be almost as steep in 2020.

Some recent news:

1) Plant closings are continuing at a rapid pace

TVA shutters last unit at Kentucky coal plant

Closure of two coal units in Montana

2) Natural Gas prices are super low - Ouch!

3) Utilities are looking to possibly idle coal plants for months at a time

Minnesota’s Xcel Energy says it can save ratepayers up to $30 million a year and eliminate millions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions by idling two coal plants six months a year and changing the way they operate in the others.

4) NARUC has come out with a paper describing changes in coal plant operations

Furthermore, the operating profile of existing coal-fired electric generating units has changed significantly. As new natural gas combined cycle plants have become increasingly more efficient and cheaper to operate than older existing coal-fired power plants, coal units continue to lose baseload generation share and more frequently operate as load-following, or cycling, resources. Increased cycling operations of coal plants, including more frequent startups and shutdowns, as well as faster changes in unit output, have a considerable impact on the reliability and cost of the plant. More frequent cycling increases wear-and-tear of plant equipment and can lead to shorter equipment lifespan due to thermal fatigue, thermal expansion, increased corrosion, and increased cost of start-up fuel. Without proper maintenance of the plant during these operations, unexpected plant outages become more frequent.

Not good.

5) Statistics from new EIA Beta Hourly Electric Grid Monitor are showing a continued 10+% drop in coal generation Y-Y for the month of January.

Below is sample showing Feb 2nd data.

6) 2020 is going to be a big year for both Wind and solar capacity additions.

EIA forecasts 13 GW of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity will be added in 2020 and 13 GW more will be added in 2021. EIA also expects a total of 11 GW of small-scale solar PV capacity will be installed during 2020 and 2021, mostly in the residential sector. EIA expects wind capacity will increase from 106 GW at the end of 2019 to 125 GW at the end of 2020 and to 130 GW by the end of 2021

Rising costs for coal due to low capacity factors, wear and tear on old machinery and increased competition from NG, solar and wind means that inertia and maybe politics are the only things keeping coal plants open.

I think all of this adds up to a major tipping point for coal.

We should expect to see a slew of coal retirement announcements as utilities do their planning over the next couple of years.

Coal is dead.