EMMA ALBERICI, PRESENTER: Taras Berezovets was an adviser to the BYU tea party in Ukraine and to its leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, during her second term as prime minister from 2007 until 2010. He's been involved with presidential and parliamentary campaigns and now runs his own strategic consulting firm, Berta Communications, based in Kiev. He joins us from the Ukrainian capital.

Taras Berezovets, welcome to Lateline.

TARAS BEREZOVETS, UKRAINIAN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hello.

EMMA ALBERICI: Now, the former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has categorised Russia's actions as a declaration of war. Is that what we're seeing in Ukraine, the beginnings of a civil war?

TARAS BEREZOVETS: Well absolutely. I would say that Russia's intervention which started in Crimea like three weeks ago, started with the same intervention from so called green men. Basically Russian special troops belonging to the special (inaudible) in Moscow and in St Petersburg. And basically what we see now these days in Donetsk, in Lugansk and in Haiko in eastern borders of Ukraine, started with the same intervention from the green men which are basically Russian terrorists who are penetrating territory through Rostov Oblast, bringing light arms, bringing RPGs and arming terrorist local separatists and who started campaign of terror on local people and who are demoralizing not only Ukrainian army, but also Ukrainian police.

EMMA ALBERICI: Reports say as many as 10 towns and cities in the east have now been seized. How much of the country do you suspect Russia wants to take?

TARAS BEREZOVETS: We have evidence this is from Ukrainian intelligence SZRU, who says that several Russian intelligence officers have been already captured in eastern regions of Ukraine and in Kiev itself and according to the plans, interrogations which have been made with Russian military agents, Russia has a plan to split Ukraine in three parts. Basically the plan is about they're not going to go any further in western parts of Ukraine, so called the Halychyna, it's 70 Ukrainian regions, they're planning to occupy southern and eastern regions which probably they're going to organise some sort of referendum which was held in Crimea three weeks ago in order to create some sort of independent Donetsk state in this regions.

As for the central Ukraine, including Kiev, Russia has a plan to organise some sort of independent Ukraine, planning to bring former president Viktor Yanukovych again. Russia's State Duma deputy Vladimir Zhirinovsky, stated yesterday that according to the Russian plans Yanukovych is planning to be back in Kiev with Russian troops by 1st of May.

EMMA ALBERICI: The Ukrainian acting president, Alexander Serganov, has announced that he's launched an antiterrorist operation, what can you tell us about that?

TARAS BEREZOVETS: Well, to my knowledge this morning Ukrainian military along with Ukrainian special troops have moved from (inaudible) southwards in direction to Donetsk. Basically Slavyansk is the main military base these days, in Slavyansk is located very close to (inaudible). So they're planning to start counterterrorist operation today. But the problem is that the Russians took that many hostages in Slavyansk and they're using these peaceful people, local people basically as a shield. They just put women, men, just in front of them so police and army cannot attack directly, because in this case there would be a lot of casualties amongst civilians.

EMMA ALBERICI: What will these antiterrorist operations actually involve?

TARAS BEREZOVETS: We're talking these days about I think it would be nearly maybe 5,000 armoured troops and several special forces like alpha. Alpha is a special forces detachment of the SZRU, the Ukrainian secret service. But as far as Ukrainian military is now facing very well trained, very well equipped Russian troops who have been equipped with just contemporary Russian armaments, there is a danger of using any sort of helicopters, for instance, or planes because Russian troops and separatists they already equipped with RPGs, rockets who can be used to fire at Ukrainian helicopters or planes.

EMMA ALBERICI: Now the Kremlin has issued a statement that recent unrest in Ukraine's south east was the result of unwillingness and inability of the leadership in Kiev to take into account the interests of Russia and the Russian speaking population. Does Moscow have a point there?

TARAS BEREZOVETS: Well, you know, in this case we're dealing again with Moscow propaganda with the same lies as it used to be in Stalin's time and in Brezhnev's time. Because everything Russian minister foreign affairs, or Russian military is talking about has nothing to do with reality. According to the last polls which has been conducted in eastern Ukraine and regions, namely in Donetsk, Harken and Lugansk, maximum 50 per cent of population in these regions, they do support any sort of idea of joining Russia, it's rather not becoming part of Russia, it's rather having some sort of customs union, which Russia was suggesting. For instance in the Crimea before this occupation the general figure of people who wanted to be a part of Russia was like three times more, it was 41 per cent. And still majority of civilians, majority of people in eastern regions, they feel themselves quite endangered because what the parties are doing, they're seizing cars, they're seizing private property, they're shooting at people and they were already casualties among civil population. People were shot from machine guns used by separatists, particularly in Slavyansk.

EMMA ALBERICI: The US and EU sanctions, are they having any effect in terms of muting the Russian assault?

TARAS BEREZOVETS: That's a good question. What we really need these days, we need the escalation of situation in these regions and of course economic sanctions imposed by United States, European Union, they do work. But the problem with the sanctions would be it's rather long term affect. So any sort of immediate effect on Russian economy or Russian position is not possible in these days.

What Ukraine really needs, we're not talking of any sort of military assistance from NATO, for instance, but what Ukraine is really needs these days to get military equipment from NATO, especially while missiles, especially any sort of light arms or probably something to fight with special Russian troops.

EMMA ALBERICI: We are running out of time but I wanted to explore China's role in all of this. It was the only country at the UN Security Council not to censure Russia's actions in Crimea and now in fact we hear Beijing is in talks with Moscow to develop energy projects in Crimea and also to sign a 30 year gas supply deal.

TARAS BEREZOVETS: Yeah, I believe China has its own interests in all this situation and not supporting United Nations resolution they were still seeking for some sort of business deal with Russia. In Crimea Russians has seized a large amount of natural gas, it's basically in the sea very close to Crimea, to Kerch Peninsula and I think the role of Chinese is still not clear to these days, especially concerning that previous government of Mr Yanukovych signed an agreement with Chinese about using Ukrainian soils for producing basically, producing food for China's economy.

EMMA ALBERICI: And finally, both the 'New York Times' and the 'Guardian' have asked in recent headlines if Ukraine might be the next Yugoslavia. From the US and the European perspective, are there lessons from Yugoslavia to be considered today in Ukraine, do you think?

TARAS BEREZOVETS: I think this crisis, if everything happens like it happens these days, this crisis would be well a huge catastrophe both, for Ukraine, for Russia and for European Union. Because in this case we would see millions of refugees fleeing, well escaping from Kiev and central Ukraine in direction to European Union. And I think the size of this catastrophe would be that big that circumstances of this war we can feel in 20 or 30 years.

EMMA ALBERICI: We are out of time. Many thanks for joining us this evening Taras Berezovets and let's hope the talks in Geneva on Thursday do actually map out a path for peace.