There are numerous reports of violations of the ceasefire, which went into effect midnight, Kiev time, February 15 — which for the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Lugansk People’s Republic” was at 1:00 am — as they are on Moscow time. Many of these reports revolve around what is known as the “Debaltsevo Kettle.”

Debaltsevo (Debaltseve) is a key transportation hub in southeasterm Ukraine which is often described as “the gate-way to the land-bridge to Crimea,” long sought by Russian military planners as the asset needed (from their perspective) to make the forcibly-annexed Crimean peninsula easier and less expensive to reach. If they control a land bridge, they not only can take their time building an expensive and complicated bridge over the Kerch Strait, they can also ultimately avoid bottlenecks at that location.

But if you look at the map, you can see the actual “land bridge to Crimea” runs much further to the south through Mariupol on the coast — another town that has seen heavy battles, including shelling by Russian-backed forces that killed 31 civilians on January 24.

Indeed, the road along the coast, from Novoazovsk through Mariupol and on towards Crimea is small and ill-suited for a major supply route. It’s a two-lane road in most places, such as here at the border, looking from Russia into Ukraine:

The highway from Lugansk to Donetsk and the west, via Debaltsevo is a far more important trunk road.

To the Western eye, this picture of the Debaltsevo crossroads of four main highways taken by Andrei Omelyanenko may not seem like much, but the highway, here looking toward Russia, is that much wider and improved, and most importantly, has more roads linking to it:

Another photo on Panoramio taken by Viktor Stonikov near this crossroads illustrates another important feature — services. This road has gas stations, repair shops, and cafes, which is why we see trucks on it.

There are also the highways near the crossroads, which meet at a junction near the border between Donetsk and Lugansk Regions.

Photo by Bogdan Smykov

Debaltsevo, which began with a rail station built in 1878, is also famous as a rail hub, especially in a country with inadequate roads where there is greater reliance on rails for passengers and freight.

Photo by VnTsokur

Due to the war, freight traffic is down 60% in Ukraine and many stations are closed, including Debaltsevo and other stops such as Gorlovka to the west, Popasnya to the north and Artyomovsk to the east. Ukrainian forces reportedly mined the fields near the Debaltsevo station.

Control of Debaltsevo, however, is still secondary as Ukraine still controls Mariupol. Only if the Russian-backed separatists gained control both of Debaltsevo and Mariupol could they have a “gateway to a land-bridge” — and in general control of major highways — which is why these two cities are so often the site of fierce battles.

Yet before there can be “a gateway to a land-bridge,” there has to be something else — control of at least all of Donetsk Region and then by implication, all of Lugansk Region — that is, the gateway to the rest of Ukraine. Control over Donetsk and Lugansk Regions are more immediately important to the Russian-backed militants — currently they only have part of these regions in what they call “the People’s Republics.” Indeed, that is why the law to come out of the Minsk agreement in September 2014, passed by the Verkhovna Rada and signed by President Petro Poroshenko, is titled “Law on Certain Districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions” (Special Law on the Donbass) (emphasis added).

Debaltsevo is a hub that could connect the two “people’s republics” in the north by main highways, although in the south, they have controlled the road from the Russian border and their ample supply chain through Sverdlovsk, Rovenky, Krasny Luch, Snezhnoye, Shakhtorsk, Khartsysk and then Donetsk.

And if you look at the map of this region, you can see the main highways lead to the north to Ukrainian-controlled Slavyansk and other towns, which they wrested back from the militants in July. Then zoom out to see these towns in context with the Crimean Peninsula.

Clearly, the immediate environs of Debaltsevo are more of a priority now than the Crimea.

So first of all, the Russian-backed separatists want control of Debaltsevo in order to reach the rest of Donetsk and Lugansk regions they do not control — which they believe is theirs by right, as Aleksandr Zakharchenko, prime minister of the DNR, made clear in a press conference yesterday, as we reported:

I said in Minsk, and will say now, all the territory of Donetsk

Region, which at this time remains occupied is the territory of the

Donetsk People’s Republic. What way we will take this, militarily or

politically, believe me, it doesn’t matter. Politically is even more

advantageous for the simple reason that it’s better, we won’t lose

people. […] Any shedding of blood is worth it in order to talk and

then try to resolve it peacefully. If it doesn’t work, we have shown the

world that we are capable of resolving this militarily. We have

repeatedly shown this.

There is not a single word in the Minsk agreement about Debaltsevo.

That means that Ukraine simply betrayed the 5,000 people who are now in

the Debaltsevo Kettle. We will cease fire throughout the whole territory

of the Donetsk People’s Republic excluding the interior region, that

region is Debaltsevo. Any attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break

out of the Debaltsevo Kettle or to blockade it will be treated by us as

a violation of the Minsk agreement, and naturally these attempts will

be cut off and be destroyed. I’ve given that order to our armed forces,

so everyone is ready and everyone is waiting.

(See also The New York Times).

Thus, Zakharchenko regards Debaltsevo as the exception to the Minsk peace agreement as it was “nowhere stated” that it was included. Not surprisingly, Russian state media reported last night that militants fired on Ukrainian positions which they claimed had fired on them first.

If you look at the map, you can see why Debaltsevo is sometimes called “the Debaltsevo pocket” because it is land that has been controlled by Ukraine that extends down deep into DNR-held territory. It has been a staging ground for the Ukrainian forces to battle the rest of the Russian-led encroachment on their territory.

The map for February 15 produced by the pro-Russian separatist blogger dragon_first_1 shows the Ukrainian forces in blue nearly surrounded by the Russian-backed fighters in red:

Precisely because Debaltsevo is a strategic hub, the OSCE decided to put their Joint Center for Control and Coordination, staffed by by Ukrainian, Russian and other member states’ military to monitor the ceasefire and border, in this Ukrainian-held city. Soon, the OSCE had to deal not only with problems like the Russian military misusing vehicles with the OSCE insignia and charges that the Russians were using their presence there for espionage, but with intense shell fire — and simply had to re-locate the center to the north in Soledar on February 8.

By surrounding some 8,000 Ukrainian forces on all sides, the DNR can claim this hub now, although Ukrainians claim still to control the road to it, so that they still have some say in it. The DNR has forced out many but not all civilians and hope for a replay of the August battle of Ilovaisk, where they may arrange a “humanitarian corridor,” as President Vladimir Putin promised (and then did not deliver on) for Ukrainian forces to surrender and leave after turning over heavy weapons. The fear is that they may be betrayed and ambushed, as they were in Ilovaisk, so Ukrainian forces are not going to be willing to stage that replay, where they lost at least 300 men. No doubt they plan to stand and fight — and with control of some of the roads, as Semyon Semyonchenko indicated yesterday February 14, and as some reports indicate today February 15, they have a chance.

If they attempt to shoot their way out, however, Zakharchenko is letting the world know that he will shoot back – with the might of the Russian Federation behind him.

A look at the map shows the dire plight of the Ukrainians — who naturally want to keep this “pocket” because otherwise, they lose control not only of more Donetsk Region territory, but make it very difficult for themselves to hang on to the rest of Donetsk Region in particular, and also ultimately, the Lugansk Region.

Ukrainian-held settlements to the north-west of Debaltsevo such as Popasnaya, Zolotoye, Krymskoye and Schastye are under constant attack and will be left even more vulnerable if the Debaltsevo salient is crushed — indeed pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov described this as an aim of the “Novorossiya” armed forces.

On this map from the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council below, all of DNR- and LNR-controlled territory adjacent to Russia is marked in brown and striped. The flames along the line of demarcation are where the battles are now for Ukraine to try to hold the line and retain the rest of Donetsk and Lugansk Regions — and indeed, the rest of Ukraine, where rebels have also caused havoc with bombings of buildings in Kharkiv, Odessa and other towns.

— Catherine A. Fitzpatrick