Anyone who has analyzed historical NBA draft picks should know that translating college success to the NBA is never a sure thing. No matter how good the scout, GM, or draft model, there is still a high level of uncertainty involved in predicting NBA success.

Therefore, my goal with this year's draft model is to highlight this uncertainty. By putting less emphasis on a single number, and more emphasis on the range of outcomes, our evaluation of players can be more representative of the roll of the dice that NBA teams actually face.

If you just want results, jump ahead to the 2018 rankings!

The models described below are based on custom statistics derived from player game log data while controlling for efficiency (minutes), level of competition (opponent), and situation (team). These are viewed as enhanced variations of pace and minute adjusted numbers, as they have an ability to better capture a players ability in situations where a coach (defensive system) or opponent (playing style) might be impacting statistical performance. Additionally, by factoring in individual game performances, strong (or weak) performances against the best competition are not lost in season averages. Other inputs also include scouting (high school ranking) and player characteristics (age, height, weight, combine).

Quant is a gradient boosting quantile regression model which predicts a players NBA peak single season win shares. By using a quantile regression model, it allows you to evaluate predictions across quantiles, highlighting differences in risk and upside.

By looking at the 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile outcomes for a player we can see that a player like Markelle Fultz might have a slightly higher upside (q90) than Jayson Tatum, but a slightly lower median expected outcome (q50).

While I recommend focusing on the full spectrum of Quant outcomes, I realize there are times when a single number is unavoidable (i.e. draft board rank). Therefore, APEX is a single number interpretation of Quant. Given that star players are so important in the NBA, APEX is calculated by averaging the higher upside outcomes (q75 and q90). In cases where a player has multiple season's worth of pre-NBA data, the players overall APEX value is a minute weighted average of all APEX values.

Below are the top 25 players as rated by APEX.

While there is room for improvement, historical (out of sample) results below show that, in general, performance is quite good.

Star is a classification model which predicts the probability of being an All Star (star), Starter (start), Role Player (role), or Bust (bust). The advantage of the Star model is that the results are intuitive, however keep in mind that being a Starter or Role Player in the NBA is sometimes about situation and does not imply success or efficiency (which is what is captured in the Quant model).

Below you can see that Greg Oden had a wide range of outcomes with a higher probability of being either a bust or a star, whereas Kevin Durant had a more narrow range of outcomes and a smaller probability of becoming a bust.

To give insight into playing style and NBA combine comparables, I have a K-nearest neighbor model which shows historical players that are most similar. Below we can see that Trae Young and Steph Curry are indeed similar, however they do have some key differences in assists and steals.

Below you can see the top 60 APEX rated players and the complete Top 100 can be found here.

Below is a heat map showing a players strengths and weaknesses which can help you understand why the models might view a player a particular way. See the glossary for any non-obvious column names. The complete list of Guards in the Top 100 can be found here.

You can find the complete Top 100 here.

Below are the players with the highest NBA All Star potential probability.

Notice how Shai has a high probability of being a solid starter, however a lower All Star potential compared to some other risker players.

Here is how APEX ranks players in comparison with various draft boards (all updated on 6/18):

Contact me on Twitter if you think another ranking should be included. The table includes players who appeared in the Top 60 on any of the draft boards.

Below you can find lots of information about top players including:

Statistical Profile - visualize the strengths, weaknesses, and growth trajectory of individual players over their college careers Playing Style Comps - find the most similar player seasons compared to the potential draftees most recent season, which can keep you honest on a players expected outcome Combine Comps - find the most similar players in terms of physique and athleticism Draft Model Likes/Dislikes - gain a better understanding as to why my draft model might be ranking a player higher/lower than expected

FR | F | 6-8 | 251 | rsci: 7 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age drb rate height

Draft Model Dislikes

3p rate scoring rate stl rate

FR | F | 6-9 | 236 | rsci: 9 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age shooting efficiency 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

3p rate stl rate ast rate

FR | G | 6-0 | 177 | rsci: 21 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

scoring rate age drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

stl rate shooting efficiency 2p shooting

G | 6-6 | 225 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age 2p shooting ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

3p shooting scoring rate stl rate

FR | F | 6-11 | 247 | rsci: 3 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age drb rate scoring rate

Draft Model Dislikes

stl rate ft rate ft shooting

FR | G | 6-4 | 180 | rsci: 30 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate age weight

Draft Model Dislikes

drb rate ft shooting shooting efficiency

FR | F | 6-5 | 208 | rsci: 12 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age stl rate ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting shooting efficiency scoring rate

G | 6-7 | 192 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age height weight

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting shooting efficiency drb rate

FR | F | 6-9 | 231 | rsci: 1 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age shooting efficiency 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

ast rate drb rate stl rate

SO | G | 6-5 | 220 | rsci: 10 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age ast rate shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

scoring rate stl rate ft rate

SO | F | 6-7 | 234 | rsci: 51 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

ast rate drb rate 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

weight ft rate age

FR | G | 6-2 | 193 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age stl rate drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

height ft shooting scoring rate

FR | F | 6-11 | 225 | rsci: 4 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age drb rate shooting efficiency

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting ft rate ast rate

F | 6-8 | 187 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

2p shooting age ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting ft rate drb rate

SO | G | 6-6 | 194 | rsci: 53 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

2p shooting shooting efficiency age

Draft Model Dislikes

stl rate scoring rate drb rate

FR | G | 6-2 | 198 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age shooting efficiency 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting height drb rate

JR | G | 6-5 | 188 | rsci: 96 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate shooting efficiency 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

tov rate height age

FR | F | 6-7 | 211 | rsci: 13 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age ast rate drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting shooting efficiency 2p shooting

FR | F | 6-11 | 250 | rsci: 11 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age scoring rate 3p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

2p shooting ast rate shooting efficiency

JR | F | 6-10 | 241 | rsci: 97 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate stl rate height

Draft Model Dislikes

tov rate 3p shooting ast rate

SR | G | 6-5 | 187 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate ast rate ft rate

Draft Model Dislikes

2p shooting shooting efficiency age

SO | G | 6-3 | 210 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age scoring rate stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

height shooting efficiency 2p shooting

JR | G | 6-4 | 188 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

2p shooting shooting efficiency ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

age stl rate scoring rate

G | 6-1 | 177 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

shooting efficiency 2p shooting scoring rate

Draft Model Dislikes

height weight stl rate

SR | F | 6-6 | 211 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate ft shooting height

Draft Model Dislikes

scoring rate 2p shooting age

FR | F | 6-7 | 212 | rsci: 10 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age height weight

Draft Model Dislikes

stl rate scoring rate ast rate

FR | G | 6-0 | 183 | rsci: 6 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age scoring rate 3p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

height drb rate stl rate

FR | F | 6-9 | 211 | rsci: 2 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate age height

Draft Model Dislikes

ast rate 2p shooting shooting efficiency

JR | G | 6-2 | 198 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

2p shooting shooting efficiency stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

ft rate drb rate age

F | 6-6 | 202 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate age 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting height ast rate

JR | G | 6-4 | 188 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

2p shooting shooting efficiency ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

age drb rate stl rate

JR | F | 6-8 | 219 | rsci: 35 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

height shooting efficiency 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

ast rate stl rate drb rate

SO | F | 6-7 | 216 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate ast rate weight

Draft Model Dislikes

ft rate stl rate age

JR | G | 6-4 | 198 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

shooting efficiency 2p shooting stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

ft rate scoring rate age

JR | G | 6-4 | 199 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

ft rate stl rate 3p rate

Draft Model Dislikes

height scoring rate age

SR | G | 6-1 | 183 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

shooting efficiency 2p shooting scoring rate

Draft Model Dislikes

drb rate stl rate age

F | 6-11 | 252 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

scoring rate stl rate height

Draft Model Dislikes

weight ft shooting drb rate

SO | G | 6-2 | 217 | rsci: 21 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate ft rate 3p rate

Draft Model Dislikes

drb rate 2p shooting shooting efficiency

JR | F | 6-9 | 215 | rsci: 41 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate height weight

Draft Model Dislikes

2p shooting drb rate age

SR | G | 6-6 | 211 | rsci: 95 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate ast rate height

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting drb rate shooting efficiency

SR | F | 6-7 | 223 | rsci: 29 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate ast rate ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

weight stl rate age

FR | G | 6-1 | 191 | rsci: 5 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate age ast rate

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting shooting efficiency drb rate

JR | G | 6-1 | 198 | rsci: 19 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

shooting efficiency 2p shooting ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

weight age stl rate

SR | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 24 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate ft rate 2p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

drb rate scoring rate age

SR | F | 6-7 | 246 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

scoring rate ast rate ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

usg rate age stl rate

JR | G | 6-6 | 200 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate ast rate height

Draft Model Dislikes

scoring rate shooting efficiency age

JR | G | 6-4 | 207 | rsci: 89 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate ft rate 3p shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

shooting efficiency age 2p shooting

JR | G | 6-3 | 200 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

shooting efficiency 2p shooting drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

height scoring rate age

FR | G | 6-3 | 196 | rsci: 17 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

age ast rate weight

Draft Model Dislikes

2p shooting shooting efficiency drb rate

SO | G | 6-2 | 189 | rsci: 8 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

shooting efficiency drb rate ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

3p shooting height age

SR | C | 6-11 | 254 | rsci: 33 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate height stl rate

Draft Model Dislikes

ft rate shooting efficiency age

JR | G | 5-11 | 187 | rsci: 60 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

weight ast rate height

Draft Model Dislikes

ft shooting drb rate age

SR | F | 6-5 | 211 | rsci: 15 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

shooting efficiency 2p shooting drb rate

Draft Model Dislikes

tov rate weight age

SO | G | 6-3 | 194 | rsci: 26 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

drb rate weight ft rate

Draft Model Dislikes

2p shooting scoring rate age

JR | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 12 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

2p shooting shooting efficiency ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

height stl rate age

SR | G | 6-0 | 196 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

stl rate drb rate ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

shooting efficiency 2p shooting age

SO | G | 6-3 | 198 | rsci: 43 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

ast rate age ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

shooting efficiency stl rate 2p shooting

SR | C | 7-1 | 303 | rsci: 82 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

2p shooting shooting efficiency ft shooting

Draft Model Dislikes

drb rate ast rate age

SR | G | 6-0 | 186 | rsci: 65 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

ast rate height tov rate

Draft Model Dislikes

2p shooting shooting efficiency age

FR | F | 6-8 | 253 | rsci: 17 | s-ref | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Combine Comps

Draft Model Likes

ft shooting drb rate 3p rate

Draft Model Dislikes

shooting efficiency age weight