It’s been a long day so just a quick post this evening.

We’ve had a nice break from the heavy rain for several hours, and I think that will continue for at least a little while longer. However I’m watching the movement of some storms over central Texas with some concern, as they may move into the Houston metro area tonight. They have become moderately more organized during the last couple of hours.

Frankly it is not at all clear to me what will happen as this newest system approaches Houston later tonight. On one hand, the atmosphere is pretty worked over, as today’s storms have sapped it of much of its energy and moisture. However there remains a lot of moisture offshore, and that will continue to flow inland tonight, and the upper-level low remains nearby to force it upward.

I’m struggling here, but I could see these storms bringing an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain over some locations tonight, which would be really problematic for western parts of the metro area due to rains during the last 24 hours. I could also see these storms weakening by the time they reach Houston around 10pm or later given all that’s happened already today.

Out of an abundance of caution, however, I feel the need to at least call attention the possibility of heavy rain tonight shortly before and after midnight. I will be back early in the morning with additional forecasts.

Posted at 7:50pm CT on Monday