Experts question ministers’ assertion that increase has nothing to do with divergent lockdowns

This article is more than 4 months old

This article is more than 4 months old

A surge in coronavirus infections on Ireland’s border with Northern Ireland has prompted concern about a possible spillover between the two jurisdictions.

Seven of the eight counties in Ireland with the highest incidence of cases were clustered in the north-east, epidemiological reports from Ireland’s Health Service Executive showed this week.

Cavan, a largely rural landscape, has overtaken Dublin as the county with the highest rate of infection, with an incidence of 753.5 per 100,000 people compared with Dublin’s 684.6. Cavan has a 43-mile border with the county of Fermanagh in Northern Ireland, which has a looser lockdown than the Republic.

Infection rates have also increased sharply in Monaghan, which has an incidence of 570.2, and Louth, with 463.2.

The regional surge has put scrutiny on the border and diverging responses to the Covid-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Authorities on both sides of the border have downplayed suggestions of spillover, which would raise fraught political issues and questions about coordination between both jurisdictions.

“The level of infection in Cavan and Monaghan has nothing to do with people coming from across the border,” Heather Humphreys, Ireland’s business minister, told Virgin News on Wednesday. “There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest it.”

She linked the surge in cases to outbreaks at nursing homes and at Cavan’s general hospital as well as increased testing in residential healthcare settings.

Tony Holohan, Ireland’s chief medical officer, told a media briefing in Dublin he did not believe there was spillover, or that the variation in infection rates was significant. “This is a disease and you get regional concentrations.”

Michael McBride, his counterpart in Northern Ireland, concurred in a media briefing in Belfast, saying the spread of the disease had been “broadly similar” in both jurisdictions.

However, some experts questioned the official statements and voiced concern at divergences in coronavirus strategy on the island, with Northern Ireland taking its lead from Downing Street.

Gabriel Scally, the president of the epidemiology and public health section of the Royal Society of Medicine, said a spillover was the most likely explanation for the border’s infection surge.

There was urgent need for more information from Northern Irish counties such as Armagh and Fermanagh, he told the Irish News, describing data on the pandemic in the region as a “black hole”.

Scally and other experts have urged authorities north and south of the border to improve coordination. This month both departments of health signed a memorandum of understanding formalising cooperation in the fight against coronavirus, but critics say closer collaboration is needed.

Ireland’s gardaí cannot detain visitors from Northern Ireland, while Stormont has not stipulated limits to Northern Ireland’s lockdown.