Mood Betas and Seasonalities in Stock Returns

NBER Working Paper No. 24676

Issued in June 2018, Revised in February 2019

NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing



Existing research has documented cross-sectional seasonality of stock returns—the periodic outperformance of certain stocks during the same calendar months or weekdays. A model in which assets differ in their sensitivities to investor mood explains these effects and implies other seasonal patterns. We find that relative performance across individual stocks or stock portfolios during past high or low mood months and weekdays tends to recur/reverse in periods with congruent/noncongruent mood. Furthermore, assets with higher sensitivities to aggregate mood—higher mood betas— subsequently earn higher/lower returns during high/low mood periods, including those induced by Daylight Saving Time changes, weather conditions and anticipation of major holidays.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24676

Published:

