Conservative party members’ first choice for leader continues to be a two-way race at the top between Kevin O’Leary and Maxime Bernier, according to the latest iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet Research.

From February 27 to March 4, Mainstreet reached 839 members and found — with a margin of error of +/- 3.37 per cent, 19 times out of 20 — Kevin O’Leary was the first choice of 23.96 per cent of members, followed by Maxime Bernier at 19.07 per cent.

That isn’t much of a shift from last week, when O’Leary polled at 22.49 per cent and Bernier polled at 18.91.

“We’ve consistently seen Kevin O’Leary number one — he’s now back up to nearly a full quarter of all members,” said Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi.

“That’s a strong number. As long as he can match the membership sales of the next closest competitor, this is good news for him.”

Once again, the number of undecided members has risen and now sits at 18.12 per cent; almost one-fifth of members are undecided.

But another development of note from this week’s numbers is the continued collapse of Kellie Leitch’s support.

Andrew Scheer has moved into third (7.87 per cent), with Lisa Raitt right behind him (7.15) per cent.

Though down only slightly from last week — from 7.5 per per cent to 6.32 — this week’s numbers confirm a trend.

“Kellie Leitch seems to be cratering at this point. This is a trend, whether or not some of her supporters are in that undecided category — hard to really say. But we saw another drop this week,” Maggi said.

“She’s now in fifth.”

Maggi speculated that Leitch’s widely-mocked campaign video and recent debate performances could be part of the explanation.

Still, that’s the lowest she’s been since Mainstreet started tracking the race.

In the February 13 to 17 poll, Leitch was at 16.2 per cent.

But with each riding worth 100 hundred points in the race — regardless of how many members it has — Maggi pointed out that Leitch’s support is more efficient than that of either Scheer or Raitt.

“Her vote is quite broad and much more efficient in terms of points, compared to Andrew Scheer or Lisa Raitt, who’ve now passed her. But it’s still should be a concern for Kellie Leitch and her campaign that she’s trending in this direction,” he said.

At the other end of the spectrum — the candidate members are least likely to support — O’Leary has maintained his problematic lead.

Just under one-third of members rank the brash celebrity businessman as their last choice. The next closest candidate is Leitch at 12.50 and Michael Chong at 10.94.

Only 6.42 per cent rank Bernier last.

The iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet, will be tracking the Conservative leadership race until members pick the next leader on May 27. For additional information on methodology and to subscribe to in-depth updates, click here.