Outlook: John Beilein’s decision to take his talents to the sunny beaches of Cleveland, Ohio, sent shockwaves through the college basketball landscape. Undisputedly one of the best coaches in the country, Beilein revived a Michigan program that was stuck in neutral under Tommy Amaker and led the Wolverines to two Sweet Sixteens, one Elite Eight, and two National Championship appearances in his 12 seasons at the helm. His departure was jarring and had a sizable impact on the school’s 2019 recruiting class, but all hope is not lost in Ann Arbor. Juwan Howard, famed member of the Fab Five and 19-year NBA veteran, steps in to take the reins of his alma mater and appears poised to continue Michigan’s strong basketball tradition. Howard’s press conference alone where he teared up and discussed how he finished his college degree during his NBA rookie season immediately boosted the Wolverines 5-10 spots in my rankings. He has a clear passion for the university and has already made smart hiring decisions by bringing on long-time St. Joe’s coach Phil Martelli and former NBA guard Howard Eisley. He inherits a team with two All-Big Ten level players, a key role player, and a host of unknowns.

Howard spent the past six seasons as an assistant for the Miami Heat, so those jumping directly to the “he doesn’t know how to coach the X’s and O’s” take, are misguided. While it’s true Howard has zero experience in the college basketball head coaching department, NBA bench experience and staff members like Martelli should make his transition to the college game a relatively smooth one. Style-wise we aren’t sure what we’ll see from Howard on the offensive end, but I have a hunch we will still see a healthy diet of pick-n-roll, the staple of the Michigan offense under Beilein. The Wolverines ranked 5th in the country last season in percentage of plays used via the pick-n-roll, per Synergy, a set-up that primarily involved point guard Zavier Simpson and center Jon Teske. Simpson’s three-point shooting issues are well-documented, but he was an effective playmaker off ball screens in 2018-19 thanks to his elite passing ability, ball-handling, and court vision. Given his efficiency as a roll man (1.261 PPP, 84th percentile) and sky high volume in that action, Teske was arguably the best in the country in that action, and fellow frontcourt returner Isaiah Livers poured in a scorching 1.394 PPP of his own (93rd percentile). With the strength of that tandem returning, the PnR should be alive and well in Ann Arbor this season, but other facets of the offensive game, like pace, are still a mystery. Beilein’s squads ran a methodical half-court style of offense. With Howard’s NBA background, it’s more than likely we see a jump in tempo in 2019-20, perhaps even a more perimeter-oriented, three-point focused attack with former bench warmers taking on new roles.

Realistically, Michigan’s offense could still struggle despite the excellent pick-n-roll combination. Charles Matthews, Ignas Brazdeikis, and Jordan Poole could all create their own shot in the half-court, and this roster doesn’t appear, at least at this point, to have that type of player. Defensively, though, Michigan could still be elite. Beilein’s last two Wolverine squads each ranked in the top three of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, a result of tenacious on-ball defenders, a focus on denying clean looks from outside the arc, and a talented rim protector inside the paint. Simpson, a Big Ten All-Defense member in 2018-19, is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country, and Teske will still act as a force field around the rim down low. Matthews’ departure hurts on this end (as does defensive coaching specialist Luke Yaklich), but the two returning cornerstones are probably enough to keep the Wolverines’ D in the top 20 nationally.

Point guard leaders are the most sought-after commodity in college basketball and Michigan has one of the best in Simpson. The 2nd Team All-Conference member is a steady foundation on which the rest of the Wolverines can stand. I’ve mentioned his defense and his ability to see the floor, but his game management, leadership, and sure-handedness are vital intangibles that can lift a “good” team to “great”. Simpson deservedly gets ridiculed for his poor outside shooting, but at least he seems to be trending in the right direction. Last season he improved his 3P% from 28.9% to 30.8% on a higher volume, but must continue to improve to avoid allowing defenders to simply go under ball screens and dare him to chuck up a (now longer) three. If he becomes respectable from the outside, it will only further unlock opportunities for him to use his craftiness inside the arc, specifically his GORGEOUS running hook shot that has earned him the nickname “Captain Hook”: