KOLKATA: Reliance Jio Infocomm could miss its target of grabbing 100 million 4G customers by December-end as its subscriber run rate has plunged below 50%, stung by handset ecosystem challenges and a sharp drop in footfalls at retail outlets following demonetisation, brokerage Motilal Oswal said in a note.Jio’s slowing network speeds and deteriorating customer experience, the brokerage said, had also led to a slowdown in customer adds. The brokerage's views are based on channel checks with Jio's center heads and ex-senior management, including strategy and marketing heads.Motilal Oswal has estimated Jio’s pan-India customer base at 35-to-40 million.In fact, the brokerage sees a strong possibility of the Mukesh Ambani-run telco extending its free services offer beyond December if it is unable to acquire the targeted 100 million customers by the year-end, although there has been no official communication on these lines from Jio yet.Analysts at Morgan Stanley, however, feel the disruptive impact of Jio’s free services on incumbent operator revenues has only just begun as the country’s newest telecom operator accounted for a whopping 94% of the incremental data volumes in the September quarter.What’s more, Morgan Stanley said even if Jio closes its free services offer, its tariffs would be at a 35% discount to incumbents, although the US brokerage also expects the 4G entrant to extend its free offer till March 2017.Analysts at Motilal Oswal, however, are a tad less optimistic and see “a high risk of (Jio) subscriber churn, post the Welcome Offer,” as most are using Jio as a second SIM to take advantage of its freebies.The brokerage, in fact, said customer experience on Jio’s network had deteriorated due to the current high usage levels/customer. “Channel checks suggest Jio outlets have started receiving complaints that data speeds are down by 70-80% over three months,” since its September 5 launch.Analysts at Motilal Oswal said Jio’s low-value smartphones priced in the Rs 3,000-4,000 were also ill equipped to provide genuine 4G experience, and hence, denting usage.Small wonder, the brokerage expects Jio to unveil “new price plans in the Rs 200-to-300 ARPU bracket in the run-up to its paid services launch,” in its bid to target mass-market customers.