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Re: Help

From:burns.strider@americanbridge.org To: peter.emerson@me.com CC: CTRFriendsFamily@americanbridge.org, allison@readyforhillary.com, jchurch@americanbridge.org Date: 2014-11-28 21:34 Subject: Re: Help

Done, brother. Happy Thanksgiving! Burns on AirPad > On Nov 28, 2014, at 9:59 AM, Peter Emerson <peter.emerson@me.com> wrote: > > Burns and Allison > > Hope you all are having a wonderful Thanksgiving > > I need your help. > > This email address is only for my friends and family. So rather than unsubscribe or ask you to remove me entirely from the daily or near daily updates from correct the record, I ask you to send them to the following email address, which I use for my political and policy interests. This way I'll be able to read them on a daily basis. > > Peteremerson@gmail.com > > Thank you in advance. > > Best wishes. > > Peter > > > Sent from my iPhone. Please excuse mispelled words; and grammatical errors. > >> On Nov 26, 2014, at 12:36 PM, Burns Strider <burns.strider@americanbridge.org> wrote: >> >> <CTRlogo.png> >> ​Correct The Record Wednesday November 26, 2014 Roundup: >> >> >> >> >> >> Tweets: >> >> >> >> >> >> Correct The Record @CorrectRecord: .@HillaryClinton launched the Climate & Clean Air Coalition w/ 37 nations working to reduce emissions #HRC365 http://correctrecord.org/stemming-the-tide-of-climate-change/ … [11/25/14, 8:01 p.m. EST] >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> Headlines: >> >> >> >> >> >> Times-Picayune: “Hillary Clinton hosting New York fundraiser for Mary Landrieu” >> >> >> >> “Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is hosting a New York City fundraiser for Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., on Monday.” >> >> >> >> >> >> Associated Press: “Hillary Clinton Treads Lightly On Policy Issues As She Eyes 2016” >> >> >> >> "Clinton is expected to make her political intentions known in the coming weeks, likely in early 2015. Her speeches are closely watched for signs of how she might offer a rationale for her candidacy." >> >> >> >> >> >> CNN: “Is the Clinton magic gone in Arkansas?” >> >> >> >> "This state launched the Clinton brand two decades ago and handed Hillary Clinton one of the biggest victories of her 2008 primary battle against Barack Obama." >> >> >> >> >> >> Washington Post blog: “Clinton has a clear lead among Democrats — but would face stiff competition from Romney, Christie” >> >> >> >> "The new Quinnipiac survey has Clinton with support from a whopping 57 percent of Democrats, followed at a distant second by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, at 13 percent. Vice President Joe Biden trails with 9 percent, while no other candidate breaks the 4 percent threshold." >> >> >> >> >> >> New York Times opinion: “Who Will Save the Democratic Party From Itself?” >> >> >> >> “Not everyone agrees that Hillary Clinton’s selection as the Democratic nominee is unstoppable. The first to challenge her is Jim Webb, a one-term former senator from Virginia. Here is the case for the Democratic Party renegade.” >> >> >> >> >> >> New York Observer: “Hillary Clinton’s Deafening Silence On Ferguson” >> >> >> >> "Meanwhile, few aspirants hoping to succeed President Obama had much to say about Ferguson." >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> Times-Picayune: “Hillary Clinton hosting New York fundraiser for Mary Landrieu” >> >> >> >> By Bruce Alpert >> >> November 25, 2014, 5:55 p.m. EST >> >> >> >> Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is hosting a New York City fundraiser for Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., on Monday. >> >> >> >> Landrieu, trailing in recent polls to Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy for the Dec. 6 runoff, continues to face an avalanche of negative ads from conservative advocacy groups, such as Karl Rove's American Crossroads. But the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, apparently confident of Cassidy's victory, has canceled planned TV ads in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lafayette, according to Politico. >> >> >> >> Clinton, who campaigned at a New Orleans rally for Landrieu before just before the Nov. 4 primary, is hosting the Landrieu fundraiser at the home of long-time Clinton supporters Sarah and Victory Kovner. Tickets range from $1,000 to $12,600, with proceeds going to Landrieu's Senate campaign, the Louisiana Democratic Party and Landrieu's political action committee. Clinton, the former First Lady and New York senator, is the current frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. >> >> >> >> Meanwhile, outside groups reported new allocations Tuesday to fund efforts aimed at defeating Landrieu. >> >> >> >> Ending Spending Inc. reported in a filing Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission reported that it spent $187,000 for "direct contact" with Louisiana voters in opposition to Landrieu. The group was created by Joe Ricketts, founder of TD Ameritrade. Tea Party Patriots reported a $7,000 allocation for e-marketing efforts against Landrieu and $2,031 for automated calls and script writing on behalf of Cassidy. >> >> >> >> Vote 2 Reduce Debt, another conservative group, is spending $1,600 on internet ads and phone banks in support of Cassidy, according to an FEC filing Tuesday. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> Associated Press: “Hillary Clinton Treads Lightly On Policy Issues As She Eyes 2016” >> >> >> >> By Ken Thomas >> >> November 26, 2014, 9:33 a.m. EST >> >> >> >> Hillary Rodham Clinton offered praise for President Barack Obama's executive actions to stave off deportation for millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally. But the Democrats' favored presidential hopeful has been less forthcoming on other issues in these early days of the 2016 contest. >> >> >> >> Clinton is not, so far, a candidate, and she's limiting her commentary about the daily news cycle confronting Obama — a strategy that could keep down chatter about where she and the unpopular president agree and where they diverge. >> >> >> >> The former secretary of state, senator and first lady is not talking about the Keystone XL pipeline, rejected by one vote in the final weeks of the Democrat-led Senate. She has yet to speak publicly about a sweeping climate change agreement between the U.S. and China, an extension of talks over Iran's nuclear program or the Senate's move to block a bill to end bulk collection of Americans' phone records by the National Security Agency. >> >> >> >> When Obama announced his moves to prevent the deportations for nearly 5 million immigrants living in the U.S. illegally, Clinton quickly embraced the decision on Twitter. The president, she wrote, was "taking action on immigration in the face of inaction" in Congress. In doing so, she signaled that as a candidate, she would run against the Republican-led House and Senate that convenes next year. Clinton also drew a distinction from her would-be GOP opponents who have spoken of immigration reform in large part as a border security problem. >> >> >> >> On other weighty policy matters, however, Clinton is mum. >> >> >> >> "You've got to make choices if you're not a candidate," said Lanny Davis, a White House special counsel during the Clinton administration who attended law school with Bill and Hillary Clinton. "She is not a candidate for president. When she becomes a candidate, she has to start answering questions." >> >> >> >> Nick Merrill, a Clinton spokesman, declined to comment. >> >> >> >> Clinton is expected to make her political intentions known in the coming weeks, likely in early 2015. Her speeches are closely watched for signs of how she might offer a rationale for her candidacy. >> >> >> >> Clinton campaigned for Democratic candidates during the fall, often pointing to pocketbook issues like equal pay for women, raising the minimum wage and expanded family leave policies. "A 20th century economy will not work for 21st century families," she said at an October rally. >> >> >> >> Since then, Clinton has taken a more circumspect posture in public events, appearing at charity events and voicing support for issues related to her work at the Clinton Foundation. That approach allows her to stay above the political fray in the aftermath of Democrats' poor showing during the midterm elections. >> >> >> >> Clinton has stayed close to Obama on immigration, releasing a statement that noted that previous presidents of both parties had taken similar steps. >> >> >> >> The following night, in an interview at a New York Historical Society event, Clinton reiterated the need for Congress to act on a comprehensive immigration bill. She also put the issue in the context of families, saying the decision probably affected wait staff who were serving the dinner. >> >> >> >> "There is probably no more pressing issue at this time than to fix this immigration system," said Alex Padilla, California's secretary of state-elect. "As a leader, it was right for her to speak up. A lot of people wanted to know what she thought." >> >> >> >> Other policy issues carry more political risk. >> >> >> >> Clinton has avoided weighing in on the Keystone XL pipeline, saying it wouldn't be appropriate for her since the environmental review by the State Department happened during her watch. The issue is tricky for Democrats because labor unions have supported the plan but environmentalists adamantly oppose it. >> >> >> >> Clinton has called climate change the nation's "most consequential" issue but has yet to weigh in on the agreement Obama reached with China to set new targets for cutting emissions. The deal was negotiated by John Podesta, a Clinton White House chief of staff who is expected to play a prominent role in a Clinton presidential campaign. >> >> >> >> Both issues could receive attention from Clinton on Monday, when she is scheduled to address the League of Conservation Voters in New York. >> >> >> >> On NSA surveillance, Clinton has talked broadly about the need to balance the need for security without infringing upon Americans' privacy amid a debate over the government's collection of data. But she has kept a low profile on the issue. >> >> >> >> Republicans contend Clinton is being overly political in the lead-up to a presidential campaign. >> >> >> >> "Everything Hillary does is for political purposes," said Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski, "which includes taking positions for political expediency and not answering tough questions for political reasons." >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> CNN: “Is the Clinton magic gone in Arkansas?” >> >> >> >> By Dan Merica >> >> November 26, 2014, 9:34 a.m. EST >> >> >> >> This state launched the Clinton brand two decades ago and handed Hillary Clinton one of the biggest victories of her 2008 primary battle against Barack Obama. >> >> >> >> But as she considers another bid for the White House in 2016, Arkansas isn't so friendly. >> >> >> >> In the final weeks of the 2014 election, top Democrats in Arkansas told Hillary Clinton and her associates that she wasn't welcome to stump for the party's candidates in the state, according to a knowledgeable source. While there were some in Arkansas who wanted her to come, the "stay away" contingent won the argument and Hillary Clinton was left to raise money for Sen. Mark Pryor from New York. >> >> >> >> Bill Clinton made up for the absence, making 13 stops in the state during campaign season imploring voters to not make the election a repudiation of President Barack Obama. >> >> >> >> Still, Democrats across Arkansas lost big. The governor's mansion flipped red, along with Pryor's Senate seat. The state's four-member House delegation is solidly Republican. >> >> >> >> The rout was part of a broader repudiation of Democrats across the South this election cycle. But the results in Arkansas were particularly tough for the Clintons and raise questions about whether the state most associated with the couple is no longer welcome territory ahead of Hillary Clinton's potential 2016 race. >> >> >> >> "The coattails were short," outgoing Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe told CNN. "It is a fact." >> >> >> >> Changes in Arkansas >> >> >> >> Bill Clinton handily won Arkansas during both of his presidential elections. But the politics of the South changed during his time in office as many states were increasingly dominated by Republicans. >> >> >> >> Arkansas was a genuine battleground state during the 2000 election, when Al Gore and George W. Bush both campaigned here and spent money on television ads. Seeking to distance himself from Bill Clinton after his impeachment, Gore didn't campaign with the former President and lost Arkansas to Bush by 5 points. >> >> >> >> By 2008, Arkansas was seen as so unfriendly to Democrats that Obama wrote the state off -- even as he won other southern states like North Carolina and Virginia that Republicans carried for decades. >> >> >> >> Before the 2014 election, Hillary Clinton's supporters -- many at the grassroots level in Arkansas -- would quietly talk about the former first lady's chances of competing and winning Arkansas in 2016. They touted her standing with white women and working class voters. >> >> >> >> But after Election Day, those optimistic Democrats are harder to find. >> >> >> >> "Limited," said Vincent Insalaco, the chair of the Arkansas Democratic Party, when asked about Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the state. "It is limited here in Arkansas." >> >> >> >> "I think she could run a strong race here, but I think the electorate has changed," said Clarke Tucker, a newly elected Democratic state representative. "The state has changed." >> >> >> >> Hillary Clinton moved to Arkansas in 1974, joining her soon-to-be husband, Bill, who was already a rising political star in the state. The couple would go on to dominate the state's politics for the better part of two decades and left a long list of confidants -- known as FOBs or Friends of Bill -- in key Democratic positions across the state. >> >> >> >> But times have changed. Republican power bases in northwest Arkansas have grown, religious conservatives are a powerful voting bloc and the state's Latino population has yet to become a force at the ballot box. >> >> >> >> "Arkansas is a real demographic nightmare for Democrats," said Andrew Dowdle, the vice chair of political science at the University of Arkansas. "It is a complete reversal of fortunes." >> >> >> >> All of this complicates the idea that Hillary Clinton could win Arkansas in 2016. During the 2008 primary, Hillary Clinton dominated Obama, winning 70% of the state, her largest victory during that year's primary fight. That was the only time she has been on the ballot in the state, however, and was a contest with just Democratic voters. >> >> >> >> The 2014 exit polls in Arkansas weren't positive for Hillary Clinton, either. Thirty-nine percent of voters said she would make a good president, according to the exit polls. Fifty-six percent said she would not. >> >> >> >> Those same exit polls found that former GOP Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is also considering a 2016 run, is seen as a better presidential option in the state than Hillary Clinton. Fifty percent of voters in Arkansas said he would be a good president, compared to 46% who said he wouldn't. >> >> >> >> With the former first lady eyeing another run at the presidency in 2016, Democrats and Arkansas experts said that while she would easily win the Democratic primary, she would struggle mightily to overcome what has become a changed state. >> >> >> >> Democrat's silver lining: Obama is gone in 2016 >> >> >> >> Democrats in Arkansas blame Obama -- not the Clintons -- for their losses. >> >> >> >> One reason Beebe, the outgoing governor, sees things getting better for Democrats in 2016 and beyond is because "Obama will be gone." >> >> >> >> "I think it is all Obama," Beebe said. "I don't think there is any question that most folks feel like it was a repudiation of the president and the president's policies. But I think it is cyclical and the reason I say that is if you look at the history." >> >> >> >> "Democrats are looking at what can she do different from Barack Obama," said Dowdle. "If you are a Democratic party activist, you would end up hoping she would win white women. ... That idea that a woman candidate could end up running and making the gap grow is not going to happen." >> >> >> >> Exit polls show that Beebe is partly right: Nearly 70% of voters in Arkansas said they disapprove of Obama. Only 30% said they were satisfied with him. >> >> >> >> For Inalasco, 2016 -- and a Hillary Clinton run - is a moment to rebuild. >> >> >> >> "I would hope that she would carry Arkansas," he said, rejecting the idea that Democrats are done in the state. "But if she runs it is so, so positive for us on the local level, here, for what we can do with her popularity." >> >> >> >> As for whether the Clinton magic is gone in Arkansas, Inalasco deferred his answer for two years. >> >> >> >> "I guess," he said, "we will see what happens in 2016, won't we?" >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> Washington Post blog: “Clinton has a clear lead among Democrats — but would face stiff competition from Romney, Christie” >> >> >> >> By Jose DelReal >> >> November 26, 2014, 8:26 a.m. EST >> >> >> >> Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lead the 2016 Democratic presidential field — it's not even close — but another Clinton administration is far from a sure thing, even if the election were held today: A new poll out Wednesday shows that even as the clear Democratic favorite, she would face stiff competition from several would-be GOP candidates. >> >> >> >> The new Quinnipiac survey has Clinton with support from a whopping 57 percent of Democrats, followed at a distant second by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, at 13 percent. Vice President Joe Biden trails with 9 percent, while no other candidate breaks the 4 percent threshold. >> >> >> >> Clinton has yet to announce whether she will run but is widely expected to enter the race. The vice president has publicly flirted with the idea of running, while Warren has so far dismissed the possibility of a 2016 candidacy. >> >> >> >> The field is far less clear on the GOP side, where former presidential candidate Mitt Romney remains the favorite with 19 percent support. The 2012 Republican presidential nominee has publicly said that he is not interested in mounting a third presidential bid. The poll has former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush following Romney among GOP voters with 11 percent support. >> >> >> >> When Romney is taken out of the equation, Bush leads with 14 percent support, is followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 11 percent. Both Bush and Christie have said publicly that they are considering throwing their hats in the ring, but have not formally entered the race. >> >> >> >> Despite Clinton's enormous lead among potential rivals in the Democratic primary, the survey indicates she would struggle against several GOP candidates. Romney has 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent, if the election were held today. And Clinton would have 43 percent to Christie's 42 percent. >> >> >> >> She is a clearer favorite when matched against other GOP candidates, with a 46 percent to 41 percent edge over Bush, and a 46 percent to 42 percent advantage over Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan. And Clinton trounces Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 48 percent to 37 percent. >> >> >> >> The telephone survey of 1,623 registered voters was conducted by cell phone and landline between Nov. 18 and Nov. 23. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> New York Times opinion: “Who Will Save the Democratic Party From Itself?” >> >> >> >> By Thomas B. Edsall >> >> November 25, 2014 >> >> >> >> Not everyone agrees that Hillary Clinton’s selection as the Democratic nominee is unstoppable. The first to challenge her is Jim Webb, a one-term former senator from Virginia. >> >> >> >> Here is the case for the Democratic Party renegade. >> >> >> >> When Webb, who served as secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan, announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee on Nov. 19, he sought to capitalize on Democratic discontent. Taking a swipe at both Wall Street and Clinton’s potential bid for the nomination, Webb declared: >> >> >> >> “Our Constitution established a government not to protect the dominance of an aristocratic elite, but under the principle that there should be no permanent aristocracy, that every single American should have equal protection under the law, and a fair opportunity to achieve at the very highest levels.” >> >> >> >> Webb suggested that he could bring working class whites back into the Democratic fold and restore the biracial Democratic coalition: >> >> >> >> “We have drifted to the fringes of allowing the very inequalities that our Constitution was supposed to prevent. Walk into some of our inner cities if you dare, and see the stagnation, poverty, crime and lack of opportunity that still affects so many African-Americans. Or travel to the Appalachian Mountains, where my own ancestors settled and whose cultural values I still share, and view the poorest counties in America – who happen to be more than 90 percent white, and who live in the reality that “if you’re poor and white you’re out of sight.”” >> >> >> >> The Democratic Party used to be the place where people like these could come not for a handout but for an honest handshake, good full-time jobs, quality education, health care they can afford, and the vital, overriding belief that we’re all in this together and the system is not rigged. >> >> >> >> Webb’s exploration of a presidential bid is based on the premise that he can tap into a crucial but alienated segment of the electorate. >> >> >> >> This bloc includes voters convinced that Wall Street owns both parties, voters tired of politicians submitting to partisan orthodoxy and voters seeking to replace “identity group” politics with a restored middle- and working-class agenda. >> >> >> >> Webb’s election history – his victory in Virginia is the only race that he has run – suggests that he will have difficulty achieving his goals. Before we turn to examine the forces that will make his candidacy a difficult one, let’s take a look at some positives. >> >> >> >> Webb is a decorated veteran – he served from 1968 to 1972 in the Marine Corps in Vietnam, and was awarded the Navy Cross – as well as a pointed critic of military intervention in Iraq, Libya and Syria. Opposition to the war in Iraq was a centerpiece of his 2006 Senate campaign. >> >> >> >> Webb is a prolific author of both novels and nonfiction. His books are dominated by themes of war and fighting from “Fields of Fire” to “Born Fighting” to “A Time to Fight.” Webb notes with pride on his website his heritage as the descendant of “between 250,000 and 400,000 Scots-Irish” who migrated to America in the eighteenth century, traveling in groups of families and bringing with them not only long experience as rebels and outcasts but also unparalleled skills as frontiersmen and guerrilla fighters. Their cultural identity reflected acute individualism, dislike of aristocracy and a military tradition, and, over time, the Scots-Irish defined the attitudes and values of the military, of working class America, and even of the peculiarly populist form of American democracy itself. >> >> >> >> Webb is one answer to the weaknesses of today’s center-left, the so-called “upstairs-downstairs” coalition described by Joel Kotkin, presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University. Kotkin argues in his recently published book, “The New Class Conflict,” that the Democratic Party has been taken over by what he calls “gentry liberals,” an elite that has undermined the historic purpose of the Democratic Party. >> >> >> >> Kotkin contends that “The great raison d'être for left-wing politics – advocating for the middle- and working classes – has been refocused to attend more closely to the policy imperatives and interests of small, highly affluent classes, as well as the powerful public sector.” >> >> >> >> I asked Kotkin what he thought of the themes Webb intends to raise, and he wrote back “I think he’s onto something.” >> >> >> >> The Democrats, Kotkin believes, need “someone — Sherrod Brown, Webb, Jon Tester, somebody! — who speaks to the issues of upward mobility and incomes.” Both Senator Brown and Senator Tester have staked out populist positions in support of their working-class constituents in Ohio and Montana. >> >> >> >> Most Democratic politicians and strategists, according to Kotkin, “just have no feel at all — as Harry Truman and Bill Clinton did, for example — for the aspirations of the middle class. This is why they are losing them, and deservedly so.” >> >> >> >> Morris Fiorina, a political scientist at Stanford, is similarly critical of the “upscale capture” of the Democratic Party. In an email, he wrote that in the aftermath of the financial collapse of 2008, “the country is desperate for economic relief, but as time goes on it becomes clear that the administration’s economic policy is to take care of the financial sector, where hundreds of people are clearly guilty of fraud in any layman’s view. The result is building disappointment, resentment, and rage in the public, which results in the 2010 debacle.” >> >> >> >> “Today,” Fiorina writes, “We have a situation where voters can choose between a party that openly admits to being a lap dog of Wall Street and a party that by its actions clearly is a lap dog but denies it. At least vote for the honest one.” >> >> >> >> Asked about Webb, Fiorina replied, “the emotional side of me loves him.” But, Fiorina cautioned, “the rational side is worried about how he would actually behave if he were president.” >> >> >> >> Further to the left side of the political spectrum, Krystal Marie Ball, co-host of the MSNBC show The Cycle, waxed poetic on the air about the former Virginia senator on Nov. 22, telling viewers that Webb was “such a contrast from Hillary Clinton.” >> >> >> >> "Clinton," Ball said, “is polished and produced and perfectly calibrated. He is not. He is rough. He is authentic. He cares about issues. He speaks plainly. He doesn’t try to oversmile, for example, he just is exactly who he is. And there’s something very compelling about that, and it is a stark contrast from the very carefully packaged and branded Clinton image.” >> >> >> >> Al Hunt, a Bloomberg columnist, warned that Webb “could be Hillary Clinton’s worst nightmare,” noting that Webb seems an improbable candidate. He has taken illiberal positions, was President Ronald Reagan’s Navy secretary, has few relationships within the Democratic Party, and has no serious fund-raising network. What he does possess is a long-held and forceful opposition to U.S. interventions in Iraq and Libya, and potentially Syria, as well as solid anti-Wall Street credentials. In Democratic primaries, these may be Clinton’s greatest impediments to rallying a hard-core activist base. >> >> >> >> To gauge Webb’s prospects, I looked at the exit poll data for the 2006 Virginia Senate race, when he unseated George Allen, the favored Republican. I then compared Webb’s performance among key constituencies to the performance of all House Democrats running nationwide in the same year. >> >> >> >> The results of this comparison do not support the portrayal of Webb as a candidate equipped to win over key white constituencies. >> >> >> >> Take, for example, the ballots cast by white men. Webb lost among these voters by a 24-point margin, 38-62. Exit poll data on all House races in 2006 shows that Democratic House candidates lost white men by a smaller 9-point margin, 44-53. White women voted for Allen over Webb by 53-47; while House Democratic candidates split the votes of white women, 49-50. >> >> >> >> Similarly, self-identified conservatives chose Allen over Webb by a 76-point margin, 12-88, while House Democratic candidates lost this segment of the electorate by a substantial but smaller margin, 58 points (20-78). Webb did not do any better with white evangelical and born-again Protestants, losing these voters by a larger margin than did House Democratic candidates. >> >> >> >> To further check the validity of these comparisons, I looked at 2006 exit polls in two other close Democratic Senate contests, in Montana, where Tester beat Conrad Burns by less than 3,000 votes, 198,302 to 195,455, and Claire McCaskill in Missouri, who beat the incumbent Republican Jim Talent, 50-47. >> >> >> >> Tester and McCaskill both performed better among white men and women, conservatives and white born-again and evangelical Protestants, than Webb did. >> >> >> >> Let’s forget Webb for a moment and take the question a step further. What are the prospects of winning the presidential nomination for a candidate who challenges current Democratic Party strategic orthodoxy? This strategy calls for identity group, rather than class-based, mobilization, on the assumption that turning out single women, the young, and racial and ethnic minorities is more effective than an uphill struggle to revive support in the recalcitrant white middle and working class. >> >> >> >> As much as such a shift to a class-based strategy might result in economic policies more beneficial to less affluent Democratic constituencies, and therefore to more votes in the long haul, so far there has been insufficient intraparty pressure to force a change in strategic orientation. >> >> >> >> It is not lost on Democratic strategists that President Obama won twice deploying a group-based rather than a class-based strategy. Even if the next Democratic nominee does not inspire the high minority turnout levels of 2008 and 2012, the 2016 electorate will be less Republican than it was in 2012. Every four years, the heavily Republican white share of voters drops by a little over 2 percent, and the disproportionately Democratic minority share grows by the same amount. >> >> >> >> There are, however, fundamental problems with the current Democratic strategy, not least of which is that it is a strategy for winning presidential elections but not necessarily for exerting real political control. >> >> >> >> The current approach depends on a Republican Party that refuses to adjust to the transforming composition of the electorate. The 2014 elections demonstrated, however, that the Republican Party and its candidates are not immune to feedback and will change if they have to in order to win. >> >> >> >> Insofar as the Republican Party tempers its retrograde stance on social-sexual and moral-racial issues, Democratic campaigns stressing alleged threats from conservatives — the threat to freedom and privacy posed by the Christian right; the threat to Hispanic family unity posed by anti-immigrant activists; the threat to programs serving the poor posed by deficit hawks — will run out of gas. >> >> >> >> That moment may be closer than expected. An Oct. 15 Washington Post/ABC poll found that the public held the Democratic Party “in worse regard than at any point in the past 30 years.” An Oct. 24 Pew Research Center survey found, in turn, that the public favored Republicans over Democrats on such key issues as handling the economy, the budget deficit, immigration and terrorism. >> >> >> >> Democrats, according to Pew, retained an advantage on less tangible qualities such as empathy, honesty and a willingness to compromise. >> >> >> >> As attractive as those characteristics are, they are not top priorities for voters. Both Pew and Gallup have found that, except in times of crisis – for example, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks — voters’ top priorities consistently include bread-and-butter issues, jobs and the economy. >> >> >> >> In September 2006, just before Democrats regained control of the House and Senate, the party held a 30-point advantage, 58-28, on the question, “which party is better able to handle the economy,” according to Gallup. Going into the 2014 elections, Gallup found there had been a huge swing on this question, with Republicans now ahead 48-43. >> >> >> >> If those numbers do not change significantly before Nov. 8, 2016, it won’t matter whether the nominee seeks to strengthen a biracial coalition by broadening white support or by increasing turnout among the party’s identity group constituencies. The Democrats’ lack of credibility on economic issues will hobble, if not extinguish, the party’s prospects. Unless the Democrats develop a coherent, comprehensive strategy for the have-nots, it won’t matter whether the party’s nominee is Clinton, Webb or anyone else. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> New York Observer: “Hillary Clinton’s Deafening Silence On Ferguson” >> >> >> >> By Lincoln Mitchell >> >> November 26, 2014, 10:15 a.m. >> >> >> >> “The frustrations that we’ve seen,” said President Obama in a statement yesterday about recent events in Ferguson, Missouri, “are not just about a particular incident. They have deep roots in many communities of color who have a sense that our laws are not always being enforced uniformly or fairly. That may not be true everywhere, and it’s certainly not true for the vast majority of law enforcement officials, but that’s an impression that folks have and it’s not just made up. It’s rooted in realities that have existed in this country for a long time.” The comments demonstrate the President’s keen understanding of the environment that has contributed to the demonstrations and frustration felt in Ferguson and elsewhere in the U.S. following a grand jury’s decision not to indict Darren Wilson. “Next week,” the President continued, “we’ll bring together state and local officials, and law enforcement, and community leaders and faith leaders to start identifying very specific steps that we can take to make sure that law enforcement is fair and is being applied equally to every person in this country.” That sentence should provide great succor to those who want to see few if any changes to the system that produced Darren Wilson and subsequent demonstrations. >> >> >> >> Meanwhile, few aspirants hoping to succeed President Obama had much to say about Ferguson. >> >> >> >> Most of the Republicans seeking their party’s nomination for the presidency in 2016 said little or nothing about the grand jury decision and the events that followed. This was wise and reflected a strategic environment in which Republicans no longer compete for African American votes. By saying anything at all, Republican candidates such as Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal would only risk making a verbal gaffe that would hurt them with the white moderates they need to win in a general election. Somewhat predictably, the most visible Republican presidential candidate in the hours since the grand jury decision has been Rand Paul. Mr. Paul indicated that there is a need for reforms in the criminal justice system and that issues related to drug use and poverty should be addressed as well. >> >> >> >> The voice most glaringly absent in recent days has been that of Hillary Clinton. Ms. Clinton the front-running non-candidate for the Democratic nomination for President has, in recent months, not been shy about offering opinions about Ukraine, Isis or President Obama’s various foreign policy foibles, but for some reason has not had very much to say about the grand jury’s decision or the demonstrations that followed that decision. This is a reflection of Ms. Clinton’s generally cautious political style, but also raises questions about Ms. Clinton and the Democratic Party itself. >> >> >> >> African Americans are a huge part of the Democratic Party base. It is extraordinary that the party’s second most visible leader does not see it necessary or helpful to speak out during a moment that is so important to so many African Americans. There are lots of things that can go wrong for a politician when she speaks out at during times like these, but taking risks defines leadership. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> Calendar: >> >> >> >> >> >> Sec. Clinton's upcoming appearances as reported online. Not an official schedule. >> >> >> >> · December 1 – New York, NY: Sec. Clinton keynotes a League of Conservation Voters dinner (Politico) >> >> · December 1 – New York, NY: Sec. Clinton hosts fundraiser for Sen. Mary Landrieu (Times-Picayune) >> >> · December 4 – Boston, MA: Sec. Clinton speaks at the Massachusetts Conference for Women (MCFW) >> >> · December 16 – New York, NY: Sec. Clinton honored by Robert F. Kennedy Center for Justice and Human Rights (Politico) >> >> · February 24 – Santa Clara, CA: Sec. Clinton to Keynote Address at Inaugural Watermark Conference for Women (PR Newswire)