This article is more than 7 months old

This article is more than 7 months old

One of the UK’s leading pollsters has warned that Brexit has put the union at risk after another survey showed a narrow lead for Scottish independence.

Sir John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the poll by Panelbase putting the yes vote at 52% confirmed a trend showing a gradual increase in support for leaving the UK, post-Brexit.

Three polls in the past five days had put the yes vote at 50% or higher. “The pursuit of Brexit is putting support for the union at risk, that’s the very clear lesson,” Curtice said.

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The Panelbase poll, commissioned by the pro-independence blog ScotGoesPop, follows a poll last week by YouGov putting the yes vote at 51%. A Survation poll for the Sunday Times two days ago showed an even 50/50 split between yes and no.

Those figures in all three polls excluded don’t knows, which in the case of the YouGov poll were as high as 10%. Curtice said that despite this, they confirmed a consistent trend showing that pro-EU voters who previously rejected independence were now switching to yes.

The Scottish National party were delighted with the shift in support, which increased pressure on the UK government to prove Scotland would benefit from Boris Johnson’s policies post-Brexit.

Keith Brown, the SNP’s deputy leader, said the momentum for staging a fresh independence referendum, which has been repeatedly rejected by Johnson, was now unstoppable.

“The Tories are running scared of democracy but their opposition to a referendum is completely unsustainable,” Brown said. “The more Boris Johnson seeks to deny people in Scotland the right to determine our future, the more support for independence will continue to grow.”

The UK government is preparing initiatives to reduce support for independence and counter Nicola Sturgeon’s attacks on Johnson’s tactics as his government negotiates a trade deal with the EU.

Play Video 1:24 Nicola Sturgeon: independence best for Scotland post-Brexit - video

The UK government plans to spend hundreds of millions of pounds on new infrastructure and investments in Scotland from the “shared prosperity fund” which will replace EU structural funds, as well as strengthening inter-governmental arrangements within the UK.

There are suggestions the UK government will offer bursaries for Scottish students to attend English universities, and plans for a £5m advertising push in cinemas to boast about the UK’s achievements. That will be aimed not just at Scotland but also Northern Ireland and Wales, UK government sources say.

Despite the shift in support for independence, there is still reticence about Sturgeon’s demands for a referendum this year. YouGov found only 34% wanted one in 2020, rising to only 41% next year, with 46% against, even if the SNP won a majority in the 2021 Holyrood election.

“There is no guarantee that the trend will continue but what we do need to understand is that it is being driven by Brexit,” Curtis said. “[The] difficulty for the unionist position is that they say ‘we don’t think that the people of Scotland have the right to change their minds’.

“That won’t be sustainable if the trends we’re talking about go on much longer.”