THE question, until recently theoretical, has taken an urgent turn: where would China stand in the event of North Korea living up to its word and striking against US bases and South Korea?

North Korea has declared itself in a "state of war", threatening nuclear and conventional attacks on the US and South Korea, reportedly shifting missiles into place. If it makes one further small misstep, particularly with nuclear posturing, North Korea will be hit suddenly and hard.



But it is the actions of China, which for decades has played the role of big brother to its delinquent younger sibling, that matter.



Kevin Rudd may not be able to foretell his own political fortunes at home but he knows China. In his time as foreign minister, and since, he has maintained a consistent line that will comfort those anxious about the security emergency: China is no aggressor.



Whatever people think of Rudd, he is a respected world expert on China, particularly in regards to its relationship with the US. Foreign Minister Bob Carr looks to Rudd on China. And the world is now looking to China to reveal its true position on North Korea.



Rudd’s view is the world’s hope: that China has gone too far down the path of economic advancement and raising the living standards of its people to cling to a destructive and obsolete alliance with North Korea that could enjoin it to war.









The US this week positioned a destroyer off the South Korean coast to act as a localised ballistic shield against North Korean missiles, 60 years after the unsettled resolutions of the Korean War, involving the identical players: North Korea, South Korea, the US and China.



Images of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visiting his troops, ordering they “standby for fire” on US bases in South Korea, Guam, Hawaii and the mainland, and threats to burn his South Korean neighbours in a “sea of fire”, have amped the rhetoric beyond what is usual even for the Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army.



Some international theorists suggest, feebly, he’s using his threats as an invitation for the US to pay him off not to go to war, thus allowing him to save face and thereafter open up his country.



But if Kim Jong-un were a reasonable man, he could be an overnight international hero by freeing his people. Instead, his KPA is warning a 'diversified nuclear strike" could come any day, forcing the US to rush a secondary missile defence system deeper in the Pacific, in Guam, to protect the US west coast.



There is doubt North Korea has a nuclear weapon. But there is no question they can make dirty bombs and have damaging missile capability. The Americans believe the threats are real.



The son of the Dear Leader, Kim Jong-il, who inherited power in 2011, has been programmed from birth to malfunction. Aged 30, Kim Jong-un’s hard drive is crashing prematurely. The problem is he’s got a 1,200,000-strong active military and many millions more in reserve, making it the fourth-biggest force in the world.



Kim Jong-un’s fury appears to be a response to the US and South Koreans holding joint training exercises in the region.



On March 1, the US and South Korea began the two-month Operation Foal Eagle, involving nuclear-capable stealth bombers dropping dummy munitions off South Korean islands.



The Pentagon said the exercises were the result of long planning and were to assure South Koreans of its commitment to their alliance.



But without question, the intense displays of strength were in response to North Korea conducting its third underground nuclear test in February, which it carried out expressly against China’s wishes.



The test resulted in the UN Security Council, of which China is a key permanent member, unanimously endorsing fresh sanctions.



It ordered North Korea to abandon irreversibly all nuclear programs, extended existing travel bans and asset freezes of individuals and companies, and specified that luxury items such as "jewelry with pearls and race cars" be banned from import.



This was to prevent North Korea’s elite from enjoying themselves while their country went hungry.



On Tuesday, North Korea said it would reopen a nuclear reactor closed in 2007 as result of a disarmament treaty to produce plutonium for nuclear warheads.



China, North Korea's only remaining friend in the world, issued a mild rebuke which in context was an expression of extreme displeasure. "We noticed North Korea’s statement (on the reactor), which we think is regrettable," said China’s Foreign Ministry.



North Korea this week issued an absurd propaganda video showing a cartoon missile destroying a US B-52 bomber. Gruesome scenes followed of bodies burning in nuclear fires, and of a baby with its legs blown off. Absurdly, but horribly, the baby was African, not Korean.



Brainwashed North Koreans have been on war-footing for decades, putting them in a state of permanent stress. Perhaps Kim Jung-un’s greatest fear is that his people no longer believe him.



China enjoys the growing admiration of the world. But as it provides 50 per cent of North Korea’s food, and 90 per cent of its energy needs, it owns some responsibility for North Korea’s madness.



Early hopes were that Kim Jung-un might listen to Chinese advisors and join the world. Instead, he likes to be seen poring over war maps and staring from binoculars into the distance.



North Korea is believed to have 800 ballistic missiles capable of reaching 3000km, but these are yet to be matched with nuclear warheads. It is developing the long-range TaepoDong 2 missile, which could hit Australian cities.



South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye said she would respond militarily to further provocations from the North “without any political consideration”, but the likelihood is she would not act without US approval.



Carr said he would use this week’s visit to Beijing with Prime Minister Julia Gillard to urge to use its influence to try and settle down the North Koreans, known in diplomatic circles as “the Norks”. China is already impatient.



Backbencher Rudd, who true to form continues travelling the world speaking as Australia’s foreign minister, was this week in Washington addressing the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where said he was picking up strange new chatter from within China about their displeasure with North Korea.



“I’m surprised by how sort of out there people are at the moment, ranging from, ‘Let’s dump North Korea as an ally’ to ‘How do we work with the South Koreans to exercise restraint?’” Mr Rudd said.

All diplomatic attempts to tone down North Korea, including from China, have failed. Until there was an outcome, said Rudd, China had to accept that the US and South Korea would move to counter, or take on, North Korea.



This made North Korea a dangerous friend for China and a dangerous situation for the world.



“For these reasons the international community will be looking more and more to Beijing,” said Rudd, “in view of its significance as a major supplier of food and energy to the Korean people, for a new diplomacy towards Pyongyang, given that all other diplomacies from other countries have so far demonstrably failed.”



Gillard said she would be personally asking Beijing to put pressure on North Korea, though it’s hard to imagine the dead-PM-walking having any influence on the world superpower except in trade matters.



China does not want to send messages that North Koreans interpret as a call to overthrow Kim Jung-un. This would risk North Koreans running to reunite with the South as one country, which would put a US ally directly on China’s doorstep.



China prefers North Korea maintain its territory and slowly join the world. But that’s not an option. The world waits, anxious, for it to do its duty as a world citizen.



paul.toohey@news.com.au