Boston Celtics owner Steve Pagliuca told the architect of The Process, former Philadelphia 76ers GM Sam Hinkie, why he doesn’t believe in The Process at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

The panel was named Trust the Process. It was mandatory for that trust to be examined under the microscope to see if it is achieving its goals.

As panel moderator Howard Beck of Bleacher Report sat on the stage at the 2018 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, the question turned to Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca and the architect of The Process, Sam Hinkie, to decide whether the process was a viable franchise-building strategy.

Pagliuca respected the results, but disagreed with the strategy as a suitable gamble. He defended Hinkie for the way the public misconstrued his plan, but said that the definition of bottoming out is not an optimal path to success.

“In defense of Sam, I think the media took some reasonableness in his strategy and probably pushed it out the far end. You were doing other things than deciding just to lose every game,” Pagliuca said. “I think some of the trades you made, I think you traded some players that you probably got some better draft picks for than the players you sent out. But I actually don’t think statistically that the process, as it’s defined to me, actually works. Because there just enough good odds to get the great player, so if you really bottom out, first of all, you have to get the pick. You have to win the lottery. Second of all, there has to be a great draft where there is a LeBron. Most drafts, the ninth player in one draft is as good as the best player in the next draft. So when you do all the odds, surely going in that direction, to me, is a bad strategy.”

One of the things Hinkie was fairly criticized for in the process was avoiding bringing in veterans that would be mainstays in the rotation who could help develop culture. Many around the situation saw Hinkie’s departure less about results and more about process, ironically. It was the pressure from the league, that they were upset Hinkie was going all out to lose at no expense and declared it proudly to the world, that forced ownership’s hand. The league forced in Jerry Colangelo and his son Bryan and Hinkie didn’t want to stick around to see his authority continue to be gradually stripped away.

But Pagliuca made a point that the obsession with getting the top pick at all costs means not getting role players who can build up the culture toward contention. Although Philly still developed role players like Robert Covington, TJ McConnell, Richaun Holmes, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and others, Pagliuca still saw the risk exposure to be too open.

“ because you preclude the other options of brining in role players, bringing in players that can be good on a championship team,” the Celtics co-owner said. “Because the odds just don’t stack up, even statistically. So by definition, the process as defined by losing all you can for four or five years in a row isn’t the way to get to the promise land. I don’t think it’s the right strategy. The risk-reward is not correct. If you told me that you have a 70-percent chance at getting the first pick by being the worst team in the league, I would say that’s correct. But now it’s down to 14 and even at 25, would you bet your life on one-in-four and add on top of the fact that it might be a bad draft?”

Beck defended Hinkie’s strategy by countering that the risk of striking gold in the draft is reduced with more opportunities. It is an interesting argument about where do you identify opportunity cost and how do you value those missed chances? Hinkie for the most part didn’t bring in veterans because not only did he want to lose to maximize lottery odds, but he wanted to play as many prospects as possible. He has said in the past that he looked at that last spot on the roster as a small but valuable opportunity to bring in another prospect to develop into a rotation player.

Hinkie’s approach was to maximize every little window of opportunity to prospect growth. The downside is he reduces the number of veteran influences that can catalyze growth, but then that falls on the coaching staff and front office to maintain that environment. It may have backfired for a couple years, but it’s clearly been working the past couple of years under Colangelo.

While it may be easy to say that Colangelo put a stop to the process and started to turn things around, he came in just about at the point where Hinkie would have transitioned the team from the accumulation phase to the rapid development phase.

“We have several things you can point to that were successes and several things you can point to that were misses and I think that to lionize the opposite is silly,” Hinkie said. “Obama said yesterday, the decisions that come to you that you have make, you have to make them in a probabilistic way. You’re not gonna get them right 90-percent of the time. By the way, pick high, you get more right than low. You have a wider set of options. I think Philly has a number of players now and a number of options and a number of paths going forward.”

The irony is that while Boston and Philly took drastically different paths, they are managing their path forward in a similar way. Both teams are building up franchise pillar talent while staying financially flexible around them. Moreso, they have some major draft pick assets they can flip at a moment’s notice for a star.

“ can’t predict exactly what will happen,” Hinkie said. “They don’t know exactly who will stay healthy, they don’t know exactly who will develop, they don’t know which free agents they will get. They don’t know who they will get his July. It will mean a whole bunch of things. If they get a different free agent, it will mean a whole bunch of things. Having this type of flexibility means not being too path dependent on any one thing that you run into a dead end and you’re done. That guy goes down and then it’s over, you’re done.”

While Boston was afforded just about the same number of shots at the top of Philly because of their remarkable trade with Brooklyn, that opportunity is almost impossible to replicate. Hinkie found just about the only other way to pull it off. Boston did dabble in another option, by making the rare move to trade out of the top spot, with Philly ironically, to split their chances. They could keep doing this over and over if luck bounces their way. But this move has meant that they could pounce when Kyrie Irving surprisingly wanted out and they can do it again if Anthony Davis or another star does the same.

“I suspect Danny, for as brilliant as he is, couldn’t have mapped out where he is now,” Hinkie said. “But what he could have mapped out is when the next guy is angry, that we will be there. We will decide what he’s worth and we will decide if we’re willing to pay that price because we can pay the highest price of anyone.”

Hinkie posed an interesting question: How does Boston feel about the Irving trade?

“One of the things I bet he was deciding which no one is talking about now is was that the right move. The big last move they made in August, is that the right move now. Because if it’s available, everyone would be super excited in the city. But if he would’ve said no to that and kept Isaiah and kept all that stuff, he would’ve had more coming down the line. There’ll be other players that get to that point in their career and say, ‘I want to go somewhere to win. Let’s do it. Let’s make it happen.’ I think that’s definitely part of it.”

The answer is pretty apparent. They made that deal and everything they sent out aside from the pick lost most of its trade value. Boston’s initial deal with Philly to split their top pick meant they could trade one pick for Kyrie and still have a top asset in the war chest. Their gambles to keep their picks and take Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum worked out. There’s a misnomer that draft picks lose value when they are taken. That is true until the player turns out to be a great pick. The only thing more valuable than a draft pick is a great young player. The third pick in the draft has some uncertainty. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have significantly less and still have the same upside as that pick did on draft night.

It’s why Hinkie led a chorus from the panel that included Chris Bosh, former Cavs GM David Griffin and Clippers GM Lawrence Frank in an all-out love fest for Ainge.

“I think it’s worth talking about the Boston model because I think the Boston model is super interesting in a whole bunch of ways,” Hinkie said in response to Pagliuca’s criticisms of The Process. “One of which is that I hold Danny Ainge in high regard and think he’s pretty incredible. But I think largely, a lot of the issues we have with this is a really short-term view. We just find those two data points and extrapolate forever that it will never change.”

Hinkie then pointed to the recent Paul Pierce jersey retirement ceremony as a curated display of how Ainge has been able to recycle his assets over and over to rebuild on the fly with great success.

“Boston had this amazing ceremony for Paul Pierce the other day. It seemed incredible. I watched it. It was great. In the front row is KG and Paul and Rajon and Doc. Those guys are all amazing and did amazing stuff in the last run for the Celtics. But one of the advantages we forget is that the great Danny Ainge stood on the shoulders of a great GM that preceded him in his last rebuild and named Danny Ainge. While those guys sat and their playing days are over and we’re celebrating, Kyrie played. He was out there and they live in him because they actually got him.

“Rondo became Jae Crowder and Jae Crowder is in the deal (for Kyrie). Paul and KG became these picks and one of those picks is in the deal. It’s not just Kyrie, Jayson Tatum. Over and over and over. Jaylen Brown. Lots of those players came from the prior regime standing on good decisions and those decisions are standing on good decisions from the great Danny Ainge before. Kendrick Perkins becomes Jeff Green becomes a pick. Al Jefferson, Gerald Green becomes KG. You win a title, you go to the bottom, you get the picks, you do it again. That’s real genius.”

Chris Bosh chimed in to say he wanted to know what Ainge said to convince all these GMs to make these deals. Griffin noted that Assistant GM Mike Zarren, who spoke on an earlier panel, deserved significant credit for developing Boston’s strategy over the years and executing those deals.

But Hinkie pointed to one of Ainge’s most brilliant, but subtle moves: Taking advantage of LeBron James’ return to Cleveland. A year removed from fleecing the Brooklyn Nets, he was on the phone again with Nets GM Billy King and Cavs GM David Griffin, who was on this panel. Griffin needed to move Tyler Zeller in. July 2014 to clear out the space to bring in LeBron and Ainge managed to get a top-10 protected first-rounder out of it. Ainge turned around a year later and flipped that pick and Marcus Thornton to his former Assistant GM Ryan McDonough in Phoenix for Isaiah Thomas. He went on to win a bunch with IT before flipping him in a package for Kyrie Irving. The cycle never ends.

“Finding Isaiah was amazing,” Hinkie said. “Finding Isaiah, who was disgruntled in Phoenix and turned one of those picks – Danny beat me to that pick. I was trying to get to that pick like hell from Billy. Griff called me, trying to sell it to me and Danny beat me to it and he uses that pick for Isaiah.”

For all of this brilliant build up, both Boston and Philly are still on their way up. The ceiling they need to reach is unprecedentedly high because Golden State is playing at a caliber just about impossible to match. But they are somehow both in position to make that climb to summit basketball Everest. As Hinkie made clear, when an avalanche takes out one path, they have put themselves in position to hop onto another.

They are getting closer and closer and the incline of the mountain is getting steeper and steeper. They can keep jumping rope to rope, but they’ll need their own muscle to climb to the top. Studs like Joel Embiid and Kyrie Irving can lead them there, but they will need everyone to reach their potential to plant their flag.