Next President of the US of A?

New numbers from the AP show some interesting favorability/unfavorability numbers among the American people, and also parsed down to the individual parties. They don’t offer any horse race numbers or head-to-head numbers yet (they were held for future release), but the findings they have published so far are quite interesting:

THE AP-GfK POLL December, 2015 Topline

Analysis AP-Gfk poll

The topline here are the general favorable/unfavorable numbers, since that is always a big topic of discussion here:

FAV1. For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don’t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too. (Summary table)

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE DON’T KNOW ENOUGH REFUSED HILLARY CLINTON 44% 46% 8% 2% BERNIE SANDERS 31% 32% 35% 3% DONALD TRUMP 30% 58% 10% 2% MARCO RUBIO 30% 33% 35% 3% TED CRUZ 24% 37% 37% 2% BEN CARSON 32% 36% 30% 2% JEB BUSH 26% 50% 22% 3% CHRIS CHRISTIE 24% 43% 31% 3% RAND PAUL 20% 38% 40% 3% MIKE HUCKABEE 21% 37% 39% 2% CARLY FIORINA 22% 31% 45% 2% JOHN KASICH 14% 25% 58% 3% While none of the candidates are “above water” on favorability, Hillary does best of them all. Also notable that Bernie is right with her on fav/unfav among the general population, but at a lower rate, at 30% fav/31% unfav. So, he is also underwater, and his numbers are low because many people know little about him, but extrapolated to a higher number like Hillary’s he would be right with her. Good news for both Democrats here. Both rate far, far better than any GOPer, except for Rubio and Carson (but Carson is on his way down, WAY DOWN, is no longer seen as a viable candidate for the GOP nomination.)

But, Hillary’s 44% favorability tops all candidates, and by a large margin. Her -2% unfavorable ratings is a lot better than any of her GOP opponents.

Striking, but not that surprising, how unpopular Donald Trump is. His 30% favorability and 58% unfavorability is the worst of all candidates. A net of minus 28%.

Jeb Bush is also doing quite badly, but for different reasons. He has just been an awful, terrible candidate. His 26% favorable to 50% unfavorable puts him “second worst” here, with a net fav/unfav of minus 24%.

Very high minus net numbers also from Christie, Huckabee, Paul, Kasich and Fiorina.

Two GOPers do a bit better than the rest here.

Ben Carson is underwater as well but with much less negativity than all of the above GOPers, at 32% to 36% he is featuring a net of minus 4%.

And, Marco Rubio does the best out of the GOP field, his 30% favorable to 33% unfavorable gives him a net of minus 3, much better than the rest of the field aside from Carson.

As per usual, Hillary scores high with Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, which puts her on the fast track to winning the primaries/caucuses which start in just a bit over 6 weeks. She is at 80% favorable to 14% unfavorable there. But, with the general population her numbers are starting to come around. Not just the favorable/unfavorable ratings shown here, but also perception of all Americans on Hillary’s viability as the most likely candidate to win the presidency:

(AP) — Hillary Clinton stands out from the field as the presidential candidate viewed as most able to win a general election, with 78 percent of Americans as a whole thinking she could win if nominated, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Donald Trump came in second, with 55 percent thinking of him as a possible general election winner. No other candidate was seen as able to win a general election by more than 45 percent of all Americans.

The American people, overwhelmingly, and regardless of whether they are Democrats, Republicans or Independent, believe that Hillary Clinton has the best chance of winning the presidency, out of all candidates, GOP or Democratic Party.

Comparing the fav/unfav in the Democratic and Democratic-leaning subgroup:

CLINTON TOPS SANDERS FOR DEMOCRATS On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Clinton was viewed favorably by 80 percent of Democratic registered voters and unfavorably by just 14 percent. Bernie Sanders was viewed favorably by 54 percent of Democratic voters and unfavorably by 21 percent, with 24 percent saying they still don’t know enough about him. Clinton was viewed as decisive and competent by more than three-quarters of Democratic voters, and as compassionate and likable by two-thirds, topping Sanders on those measures. About six in 10 called each of the top two Democratic candidates honest. Nine in 10 said Clinton could win a general election, while just over half said that of Sanders.

Hillary’s favorability with Democrats is 80% to just 14% unfavorability. Net favorability for Hillary is 66%. With Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents Bernie is at 54% favorability and 21% unfavorability, a net of 33%.

75% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independent view Hillary as decisive, 2/3rds view her as Compassionate and likable. Hillary beats Bernie on both of these metrics. 6 out of 10 regard her as honest, same as Bernie.