Malcolm Turnbull may be favoured to replace Tony Abbott as Liberal leader, but a look at polling history reminds us how badly the Turnbull leadership experiment ended the first time, write Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods.

Viewers of this week's Q&A would have been reminded about the best and worst of our potential next leader, Malcolm Turnbull.

On the good side: he has command of complex issues and is keen to articulate his mastery. On the bad side: he has command of complex issues and is keen to articulate his mastery.

For many viewers it led to a flashback of an era where two smarty-pants were facing off as PM and opposition leader. Both came undone, after being entangled in their own genius, which left them at odds with the team that had voted them leader.

Five years on, it's easy to forget how poorly the Turnbull experiment ended, amid false accusations based on the leaking of a troubled public service mole and the climate change kerfuffle that saw Liberal Party support for carbon trading overturned.

Turnbull's failure as leader was not one of intellect or principle, it was an inability to lead and unite his team. Even against a man whose own team was fracturing under his dysfunction, Turnbull couldn't maintain the support of his colleagues or of the public.

This week's Essential Report shows six in 10 Australians don't expect Tony Abbott to remain prime minister until the next election. It also finds that Australians prefer the option of replacing Abbott as soon as possible rather than giving him six months' grace or keeping him on as leader.

With Turnbull the popular frontrunner as preferred Liberal leader, we delve into polling history to see whether his absence from the leadership has made our hearts grow fonder.

First, if we think Tony Abbott is plumbing the depths of popularity, Turnbull sank lower.

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister? (February 2015)

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other Total approve 29% 7% 65% 9% 20% Total disapprove 62% 89% 29% 86% 71% Don't know 9% 4% 6% 5% 9%

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader? (November 2009)

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other Total approve 25% 21% 41% 21% 14% Total disapprove 55% 62% 46% 63% 67% Don't know 19% 16% 13% 17% 18%

After a shocker start to the year, Abbott is only rating 29 per cent approval, but that's still four points up on Turnbull's rating in the weeks before he was dumped in Abbott's favour. Abbott's disapproval rating at 62 per cent is higher than Turnbull's reached, but Abbott also has significantly more support among the Coalition-voting base. Where two-thirds of Coalition voters still support Abbott, only four in 10 supported Turnbull during his end days.

After taking the leadership at the end of 2008, Turnbull was languishing during most of 2009, even months before the Utegate scandal broke mid-year.

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader?

12 Jan 09 9 Feb 09 30 Mar 09 18 May 09 29 Jun 09 10 Aug 09 28 Sept 09 9 Nov 09 30 Nov 09 Total approve 41% 32% 28% 30% 24% 22% 27% 29% 25% Total disapprove 30% 43% 48% 49% 57% 58% 53% 50% 55%

And while he leads the stakes now, Turnbull wasn't the preferred Liberal leader when he held the job. In a reminder of how political fortunes can change, voters looked to Joe Hockey, especially immediately before the leadership spill that knocked Turnbull off.

Then as now, "someone else" and "don't know" were more popular options than the actual leader.

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

6 July 09 17 Aug 09 30 Nov 09 3 Feb 2015 Joe Hockey 17% 16% 22% 5% Malcolm Turnbull 13% 12% 14% 24% Tony Abbott 7% 7% 9% 11% Julie Bishop 8% 6% 6% 21% Andrew Robb N/A 2% 2% N/A Someone else 20% 24% 19% 13% Don't know 32% 33% 28% 24%

On attributes, we can see just how much nostalgia has shifted views about Turnbull. While he comes up roses compared to Abbott's ratings today - it is a much closer match if we compare ratings from when Turnbull was leader.

As leader, Turnbull rated very low on honesty. And while arrogance is Abbott's trademark, as leader Turnbull trumped him, with 69 per cent of voters rating him as arrogant.

Tony Abbott Jan 2015 Malcolm Turnbull Jun 2009 Malcolm Turnbull Feb 2015 More honest than most politicians 30% 16% 40% Narrow-minded 63% 51% 36% Out of touch with ordinary people 72% 65% 48% Superficial 55% 51% 41% Good in a crisis 36% 32% 56% Arrogant 65% 69% 48% Visionary 22% 26% 44% A capable leader 34% 39% 60% Hard-working 58% 68% 66% Understands the problems facing Australia 35% 48% 55% Intelligent 50% 75% 74% Erratic 60% na 24% Intolerant 54% na 31% Aggressive 45% na 35% Trustworthy 27% na 44% Demanding na 62% na Down to earth na 25% na

Turnbull's strongest suit is his brainpower. Turnbull-as-leader beats Abbott-as-leader by a full 25 points on intelligence and he's still rated as intelligent by three-quarters of voters.

Turnbull is viewed in many quarters as a potentially formidable political leader, able to win support in the centre, beloved by inner-city types and able to steal votes off the Greens and Labor.

But history shows that when he held the leadership, Turnbull struggled to win either the support of the public or his party room. It remains to be seen whether Turnbull will get another go and put our collective rose-coloured glasses to the test. Navigating the fine line between smart and smarty-pants will be crucial.

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications. Jackie Woods is a communications consultant at Essential Media Communications.