1. Lyrsa: Impressed with her. In pre-game she is coming across just quirky enough to everyone that she is not being thought of as a threat but rather someone they all want to get to know. If she actually is as socially-savvy as she claims to be then she should find herself in a great position. She also noted she could connect with Elizabeth because Elizabeth had a Bible and she used to go to church. This is a great insight and awareness. Threat to win. 2. Jeremy: His past growing up in the south should come in handy for him navigating through the personalities. I think that Jeremy is going to be really fun to watch on TV. Unfortunately that doesn’t always translate to surviving deep into the game. He could be a train-wreck or he could be a great player who is a threat to win. I’m guessing late-merge.

3. Elizabeth: Elizabeth has the attitude to win this season. Whether she has any chance of accomplishing that will depend on how well she gets along with the others. If she can hang and not annoy, she is a serious threat to win. If she is overbearing and not motherly in a selfless/do-more-chores-than-the-others kind of way, she could see herself headed on the rejects’ (pre-merge) trip. I’d bet late-merge — gets close but comes up short. 4. Carl: He could get in to trouble extolling his strong work ethic with younger tribemates. However, he is older and has a ton more life experience which is usually helpful in making a run at winning. As a truck-driver I would imagine he is good at interacting with a whole bunch of different types of people. I guess pre-merge or winner threat.

5. Kara: I’m leery of the chances of any contestant that states they will win because they “have what it takes mentally, physically, and socially.” Since that is about as creative as painting the walls in your house beige. But, Kara does seem to have some life experience and is a bit older, both of which I think are extremely helpful. Plus, in pre-game, her own tribe appears to be distracted by her looks which could allow her to fly under the radar (in a good way.) 6. Gabby: Gabby, much like Christian will need to have a strong first few days. In pre-game she is being pegged by her fellow contestants as nerdy and quiet. If she breaks out of that stereotype, people will not only be intrigued but I think she will last a long time. However, if she cannot break out of it she could be headed for a short stay in Fiji. I think she seems younger than she is which could result in her being underestimated, which is probably good for the first part of the game.

7. Alec: I am guessing the ego is bigger than his slicked up hair! I think he may struggle on a tribe full of accomplished people. His chances would be better if he were on the other tribe since he pegs me as more of a David than a Goliath, but maybe he can use that as an advantage at a swap or the merge. No reason to expect anything other than a standard surfer-bro placement for Alec, mid to late merge. 8. Dan: Dan comes across to me as someone who before the game even starts is already acting like a “Survivor” contestant whose season is airing— insufferably obsessed with their relevance and public persona. He does, however, come off as entertaining so I am cautiously optimistic about this one. But I wouldn’t bet on him winning because he isn’t a fan and it is possible he could lack some social awareness, which gets annoying real quick. (Further, the recent pandering he has been doing on the “Survivor” subreddit has been delightful. I can only hope the “Survivor” subreddit turns on him like a pack of hungry wolves.)

9. Natalia: She is coming in with little “Survivor” knowledge and admittedly no strategy. Not off to a great start there, Natalia. I am really skeptical of how anyone that doesn’t have a good base knowledge of the game is a winners threat in the era of idols and advantages. Possibly first boot or somewhere forgettable in the merge. Wouldn’t be shocked if her edit was the color of her buff. 10. Alison: Speaks in her CBS bio as to why she will win, not that she could win. Mindset going in is important. Pre-game impressions of her seem to be positive. Her bio and interviews don’t stand out to me much so she may be able to fly under the radar. Alison seems inoffensive enough to make it to the end but does she have the charisma?

11. Mike: I thought my cast picture was squinty until I saw Mike’s. If it weren’t for his previously being on “The Amazing Race” and his work in Hollywood, I would plunk him down into the David Wright archetype and finish position. But he isn’t going to be able to play the underdog like David which may very well hurt his chances. 12. Nick: As someone that knows a bit about playing the game as a lawyer, a lot of Nick’s fate will be determined by how well he can adapt to “Survivor” where everyone is not a highly educated professional, but oftentimes closer to the opposite of that. He has a good chance of being able to adapt since he is a public defender. Nick says that his dream was to get on “Survivor,” notably he didn’t say to win “Survivor.” I didn’t believe it until I played but that difference in mindset is very often what separates the winners from the jurors. He will survive 20 days give or take 5.

13. John: I’m at a loss as to where I think he will finish. But I think that will be cleared up within the first episode. I need to see how he interacts with people in the game. He hits me as someone who is always playing up the persona he has created for himself in his professional life. In “Survivor,” will he be able to maintain that, will people find it phony, or will he shed that persona and come across genuine? I haven’t a clue at the moment, ask me in a week. 14. Angelina: She touts her social skills and how quickly she can connect to people but I am curious to see how well she does with less-educated people and people not working for a tip from her. I think she could be in trouble with the simple folk of season 37. Also worrisome for Angelina is how some contestants have picked up on the handlers at Ponderosa avoiding her, not good if people who haven’t been able to interact with her are picking up on this. I see her going premerge or early-merge, depending on whether or not those social skills are 10% as good as she thinks or 50% as good as she thinks they are.

15. Pat: Oh lord, are we about to get another “Survivor” growth narrative about the person who gets to see the world and experience only previously dreamt about things thanks to “Survivor”? Puke. He sticks out to people in pre-game which is not good if his demeanor in the game confirms the opinions already forming about him. Pat does have a blue-collar managerial position which is probably beneficial. However, I sense he may be about to get the full “Survivor” experience, including the pre-merge trip. 16. Davie: He wants to be a big character which could backfire for him depending on how well he can execute it. There is a fine line between your castmates finding your antics endearing and finding them as entertaining as having the swine flu. Is he self-aware enough to know how he is being perceived? He won’t be the first boot, since in pre-game he seems to be regarded highly enough by the others, but I would guess mid-premerge, maybe ala Patrick!

17. Jessica: Her standing in the game may come down to whether she can convincingly lie about her age. I don’t feel that she needs to lie about her age because to many of the older players 19 and 22 seem pretty similar— similarly young. Will the lie fly or will it come across as a poor veneer? Will she have the social skills and awareness to keep her superfandom to a minimum? That along with her age could put an early target on her back. Pre-merge or late-game finish as a goat is my guess. 18. Christian: Right now in the evolution of “Survivor” is not the time to be the nerdy superfan. It puts a target on your back. The first few days will be critical for Christian. Will he come across as a gamebot or will he be able to keep his chill about his game knowledge? Contestants in pre-game all seem to have sniffed out his superfan status. Not good. I’m betting pre-merge, but probably not first boot?