PAPERS

Download Breakthrough's discussion paper series.

AUSTRALIAN LOCAL GOVERNMENT CLIMATE EMERGENCY DECLARATIONS: A preliminary survey Review the full results and analysis of the latest survey carried out by Breakthrough. With over 80 local councils and two State governments in Australia having formally declared a climate emergency in recent years, the purpose of this survey was to understand what impact the declarations are having on council policies, programmes, advocacy and budgets. DOWNLOAD DONATE

COVID-19 CLIMATE LESSONS

Unprepared for a pandemic, can the world learn how to manage the bigger threat of climate disruption?

Pandemics and climate disruption are catastrophic, and potentially existential, risks. The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to understand the world’s preparedness for such a risk, and how and why the response, by and large, was grossly inadequate. This failure has important lessons for the preparedness of human society to respond to the much greater threat posed by human-induced climate disruption. There are also important, positive lessons in the pandemic response about the capacity of society to move quickly into emergency mode.

DELIVERING MAXIMUM PROTECTION An effective goal for a climate emergency response This latest Breakthrough Discussion Paper argues that recent catastrophic events confirm that the Paris climate framework is obsolete, +1.2°C is unacceptably too hot. Cardilini and Sutton offer a positive new goal to drive action, “delivering maximum protection”, supported by 11 key implementation principles. DOWNLOAD DONATE

CLIMATE CONTAGION 2020- 2025 Paul Gilding examines the factors shifting market sentiment as climate and energy contagion looms. His latest paper looks five years forward with projections of fossil-fuel industries becoming obsolete and the new economy beginning to be built. Gilding describes an economic tipping point lurking in the immediate future and a new contagion that is set to sweep through the finance system when the global market flips - from fear of acting too early to fear of being left behind as everyone races for the exits. Everything is ready, everyone knows it’s coming. It’s time to be prepared. Climate Contagion sounds the alarm that fossil fuel investments are heading for a crash, and bankers and economies reliant on them will shudder. DOWNLOAD DONATE

EXISTENTIAL CLIMATE-RELATED SECURITY RISK A scenario approach Understanding climate-driven security risks relies on climate impact projections, but much knowledge produced for policymakers is too conservative. Because the risks are now existential, a new approach to climate and security risk assessment is required using scenario analysis. DOWNLOAD PRINT VERSION TRANSLATIONS DONATE

THE THIRD DEGREE

Evidence and implications for Australia of existential climate-related security risk

Following Breakthrough’s widely-reported policy brief on Existential Climate-related Security Risk, this latest discussion paper provides supporting evidence for the contentious 3°C scenario. A 3°C scenario, developed in 2007 by US national security analysts, is reproduced in this paper highlighting a proven prescient in foreseeing some of the major socio-political events that have emerged in the last decade.

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CLIMATE CHANGE

CONFLICT & RISK In this striking Breakthrough report we look at climate change and conflict issues through the lens of sensible risk-management to draw new conclusions about the challenge we now face. HOME FRONT:

FACING AUSTRALIA'S CLIMATE EMERGENCY A powerful short film presenting some of Australia's former security, defence and political leaders who all warn us that climate change is 'a catalyst for conflict. DOWNLOAD VIEW