Introduction

The swiss system is an interesting format to analyze because of the different matchups it could induct, that's why I will try to simulate the possible outcomes like I already did for the last Major qualifier : http://www.hltv.org/?pageid=135&userid=568400&blogid=11972

Hypothesis

1. Team forcesI used my own ranking to determine team forces. Those scores are decomposed in a long term force indicator (achievements) and a short term force indicator (matches and LANs form).2. Prestige and experienceMy hypothesis was to say that teams with a good recent form have a better chance to start their tournament with a win. But further we go in the tournament, more the long term force will matters, because of the team's prestige and experience at high level.Example : NiP has more chance to step up on a decisive game than TyLoo.3. UpsetsThis last point fit with the idea that there are more upsets in the first matches of a tournament than in the final ones. I added a bit of randomness on the first matches to fit well this idea.4. HypeA team can benefit the hype due to those early upsets : defeating a bigger opponent can free the mind of the players and lead them to a better result than they could have first expected. A bonus will be given to teams regarding the opponent they defeated in order to model this factor.

Starting stats

Here are the seeds of the teams in the qualifier, using my ranking (similar to HLTV ranking)Balancing the short and long term and taking in account parameters in my hypothesis I get those odds for round 1

Simulation

After 10000 simulations of the tournaments, I got those results :1. Qualification chances2. Records3. Total distribution4. Decider Match chances

Conclusion

[INDENT]Day 33-0 OpTic3-0 dignitas0-3 Spirit0-3 Vega Squadron[/INDENT][INDENT]Day 43-1 NiP3-1 Cloud93-1 FaZe1-3 CLG1-3 HellRaisers1-3 TyLoo[/INDENT][INDENT]Day 53-2 G23-2 EnVy3-2 Immortals2-3 mousesports2-3 GODSENT2-3 Renegades[/INDENT]Of course this is just a theoretical work and the draws of next rounds could all screw up those stats. We have also some teams like mousesports and Immortals very close from each other to get the final spot in the simulation, it could balance each way !But that's the sport's beauty ! Hope you'll like this (probably) great qualifier :)