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However, even U.S. agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, has acknowledged that TPA must precede any serious negotiations. “They’re cagey our friends to the North. They know it’s very difficult to negotiate an agreement with our trade representative if they can’t be assured that whatever agreement that is ultimately negotiated will receive an up or down vote in our Congress. They’re not liking the idea that there may be 535 folks who feel they can negotiate a better deal,” he said last month, referring to the number of members of Congress.

But if, as seems likely, TPA is granted, and the Americans and Japanese can reach an accord, Harper is going to be faced with some very tough decisions in the run-up to a federal election in October.

He acknowledged as much in an under-reported exchange in Saskatchewan last month. He said previous trade deals have left Canada with a simple choice — reach an agreement or not. But with a regional deal, the other parties could strike an agreement without Canada. “We have difficult choices in this one. We have some areas where obviously we see great advantages for Canada and others where there will be challenges.… But it’s important for Canadians to understand that we do not control all the decisions here. And in that context we will continue to work as we move into the final stages to see what we can do to get the absolute best deal for this country,” he said.

That sounds very much as if the prime minister has made his mind up that Canada cannot afford to be outside this deal. But to be a partner, other countries like the U.S., New Zealand and Australia are calling for the supply management sector the government has backed in the past four elections to be broken up — at great financial and political cost to the government.