North Korea sets a dangerous trap for Trump. Disaster is far more likely than a Nobel. The summit looks like sheer impulse from a president frustrated that nuclear diplomacy is more complicated than running a hotel or a golf course.

Tom Nichols | Opinion contributor

Show Caption Hide Caption S. Korea: Trump to meet with N. Korean leader South Korea's national security adviser Chung Eui Yong said President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will meet by May. (March 8)

President Trump’s decision to participate in a summit with North Korean despot Kim Jong Un is a dangerous idea. If it works, and Trump actually succeeds in beginning the denuclearization of North Korea, he will be far worthier of the Nobel Peace Prize than Barack Obama ever was. The chances of this are roughly zero, but it’s not impossible. More likely is that this will all end in diplomatic disaster.

Before thinking about all the ways this summit could go wrong, the president’s critics owe it to him to try to consider the few ways it could go right. At the least, this decision forestalls war for the moment. Another day of peace on the Korean Peninsula is a worthy goal and a far better approach than the childish taunts that have characterized the president’s approach so far.

More: North Koreans tease nuclear concessions. Should Trump believe them?

More: Trump, North Korea and nuclear weapons: Should presidents alone decide?

Denuclearization is almost certain to fall off the table quickly, but one positive outcome would be if North Korea tries a bait-and-switch, in which they backtrack from denuclearization but agree to halt, indefinitely, all testing and production of an intercontinental ballistic missile in exchange for sanctions relief. If the president manages even this much, his gamble might pay off, at least for a while.

Most likely, however, is that the White House is about to walk right into a trap the North Koreans have been laying for American presidents since the 1990s. A one-on-one summit between a U.S. president and one of the world’s weirdest and most irresponsible leaders would be a huge reward for a regime that has long chided other rogues and dictators for their weakness in dealing with the United States.

Such a meeting would legitimize not only Kim’s regime but also his methods. No matter how the White House spins it, the North Koreans will claim a huge victory in getting Trump to bend to their will.

This isn’t to say that direct meetings are not a good idea. Sanctions are biting deeply in North Korea, and China is clearly fed up with its bizarre ally. Even so, a summit should be a reward for months, even years, of careful work and actual progress. Meetings at lower levels should progress to more senior principals, and then to the heads of state.

Instead, we have yet another decision, much like the recent and incoherent announcement of tariffs, that looks like sheer impulse from a commander in chief who seems frustrated that his advisers keep telling him that nuclear diplomacy is more complicated than running a hotel or a golf course.

Worse yet, the short run-up for a meeting in May — And why the hurry? — means that this will be a summit without an agenda and with no time to devise one, which always increases the chances of a diplomatic train wreck. There is no evidence that this move was given any kind of serious analysis by military or diplomatic advisers. The Pentagon seems to be in the dark, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made clear just hours before the announcement that no such meeting was even on the horizon.

More: Why do we monitor everyone in charge of nuclear weapons except presidents?

POLICING THE USA: A look at race, justice, media

Given North Korea’s track record, here is what is more likely to happen. Kim and Trump will meet, and Kim’s regime will reap hours of footage of an American president shaking the hand of the "supreme leader" that will run forever in North Korea and go viral around the world. Kim will play the gracious host and agree to everything, knowing that this kind of flattery will trigger a torrent of praise from Trump and perhaps even elicit reckless talk about lifting sanctions. (The North Koreans will surely have done their homework on the president’s psyche, which is on display all day, every day, on social media.)

After the summit, Pyongyang will then dig in on further negotiations. When those talks fail, Kim will blame Trump, leaving the president bewildered and angry. Trump will go back to his insulting ways, which will pave the way for Kim to exit any preliminary agreements. The whole business will fall apart, and North Korea will look like the sure winner: the co-equal of a U.S. president who has been humbled in front of America’s allies and embarrassed in front of its enemies. The unveiling of a functional, nuclear-armed North Korean ICBM will follow.

I hope I’m wrong. Talking to the North Koreans is certainly a far better idea than war. Trump and Kim could surprise us all and begin the process of removing nuclear weapons from North Korea. But it’s far too early to think about any calls to Oslo just yet.

Tom Nichols, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College and an instructor at the Harvard Extension School, is the author of The Death of Expertise. The views expressed here are solely his own. Follow him on Twitter: @RadioFreeTom.