Fears about a flagging economy have jumped to the top of President Donald Trump’s mind.

As unusual bond market moves have prompted concerns about looming economic trouble, the president said “we are very far from a recession.” Trump has pointed to a “strong” U.S. economy — the strongest in the world, he says — held back from soaring growth only by what he calls a “clueless” Federal Reserve and a news media hellbent on feeding the narrative of a downturn.

At the G-7 meetings in France this weekend, he proclaimed the U.S. economy is “the talk of the world!”

Trump has reason to fret. He has built his argument for reelection on American prosperity. His hopes for winning the race may hinge in no small part on stopping the U.S. from tumbling into a recession before November 2020.

Only two presidents since World War II — Democrats Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter — have run for reelection in the same year as a recession. While Truman won and Carter lost, history suggests an economic slump would damage Trump’s chances in what will already be a tough 2020 race.

Incumbents have a harder time winning amid a down economy because they need to find other issues to draw voters, said Lynn Vavreck, an American politics and public policy professor at UCLA. Trump is “better positioned than most” to withstand a slowdown because he ran on identity-focused issues like immigration in 2016, “but without a good economy it will be harder for him to swing marginal voters,” she said. Read more

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Fears about a flagging economy have jumped to the top of President Donald Trump’s mind.

Fears about a flagging economy have jumped to the top of President Donald Trump’s mind.

Fears about a flagging economy have jumped to the top of President Donald Trump’s mind.