It’s not even clear that the House will vote on Saturday to avoid a shutdown. | REUTERS Hill prediction: Headed for shutdown

House and Senate leadership aides in both parties are increasingly convinced the federal government will close for the first time in more than 17 years on Tuesday morning.

There is still time to avoid such a climactic stalemate, the aides acknowledged. But unless there is a dramatic change in momentum, the likelihood that a partisan showdown over government funding and the future of Obamacare could lead to a shutdown has increased dramatically.


With a special closed-door meeting meeting of House Republicans set for noon Saturday, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and his top lieutenants have not yet formulated their next play in their quest to keep the government open. It’s not even clear that the House will vote on Saturday.

( PHOTOS: How well do you know the news: Shutdown edition)

There have been repeated contacts between GOP and Democratic leaders and senior aides in recent days but no negotiations of any sort – or sign those are about to start – to resolve the standoff. Both sides feel they have made their position known to the other side, and are unwilling to make any concessions at this moment.

Senior House GOP sources say Republicans are likely to send the Senate an amended government-funding bill, but not a proposed one-week stop gap measure. Without that one-week funding bill - needed while Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and the White House try to reach a compromise agreement - the federal government will beginning shutting down “non-essential” operations on Tuesday morning.

House Republicans are considering adding several provisions to the two-month, $986 billion continuing resolution passed by the Senate on Friday, and then sending the bill back to the the upper chamber. These options include: a one-year delay of the individual mandate called for in the 2010 Affordable Care Act; an end to government’s contribution to health care for lawmakers and Hill staffers; a repeal of the medical devices tax that helps fund Obamacare; or the elimination of the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB), a controversial Obamacare provision designed to hold down Medicare costs.

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Reid, though, has already warned Boehner that he will block any House GOP funding bill with Obamacare-related provisions. Reid would move to table any House bill that contains those additional provisions favored by House Republicans. Reid could do that with a simple majority vote on Monday, setting up a government shutdown the following morning.

”We are going to accept nothing that relates to Obamacare. There’s a time and place for everything and this is not that time or place,” Reid said at a press conference following Friday’s vote.

President Barack Obama warned Republicans to “think about who you’re hurting” by letting the government shut down and said a closure would “throw a wrench into the gears of our economy at a time when those gears have gained some traction.”

Boehner, however, is under heavy pressure from his tea party and conservative House GOP colleagues to move to stop Obamacare’s implementation, whatever the political risk, including a shutdown.

( VIDEO: Major players to watch in shutdown showdown on Capitol Hill)

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is privately meeting with hard-line House conservatives to try to get them to hold out against any spending bill that does not defund or delay Obamacare — set to begin on Oct. 1, the same date government funding runs out. A House GOP debt ceiling package loaded with conservative goodies, including a provision delaying Obamacare’s individual mandate for a year, couldn’t even get enough support to make it to the floor, demonstrating how little sway Boehner holds over his rank-and-file members at this point.

Friday saw a new headache for the Ohio Republican - GOP lawmakers who are pushing back against others in the party who want to end the government contribution to the health insurance of lawmakers and staff.

Some of Boehner’s (R-Ohio) top allies marched into his Capitol office Friday afternoon to beg the speaker not to cut off health-insurance subsidies, which are deeply unpopular with the party base. Under heavy pressure from Capitol Hill — including Boehner — the Obama administration ruled in late July that lawmakers could continue receiving the employer contribution even as they enroll in new health insurance exchanges.

( PHOTOS: John Boehner’s life and career)

On Friday, Boehner told the group — GOP Reps. Tom Cole (Okla.), Duncan Hunter, Jr. (Calif.), Mike Turner (Ohio), Kay Granger (Texas) and Anders Crenshaw (Fla.) — to canvass the House Republican Conference to find out what might get support, according to sources familiar with the talks.

For the moment, it appears that those lawmakers may win that fight, despite repeated calls from Republicans like Rep. Mike McCaul (Texas) and Sen.David Vitter (La.) to get rid of the subsidy, similar to that other Americans get from their employers.

“For the last 25 years, members of Congress have been treated like every other federal employee,” said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), a staunch opponent of cutting those subsidies who spoke up against the idea in a closed party meeting. “This idea of trying to vilify us now …, that is not the right thing to do.”

( Also on POLITICO: Obama to Congress: ‘Pay our bills on time’)

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), once a congressional staffer himself, said he was “a little concerned” with cutting staff health insurance subsidies.

Yet it’s obvious – and a huge understatement – to say the House GOP leadership is in a difficult predicament right now. Reid and Obama have refused to yield any ground on either the CR or the even more high stakes debt ceiling fight. The Treasury Department has warned the federal government will hit its $16.7 trillion borrowing limit on Oct. 17.

Obama is not interested in giving away pieces of his health care law just to fund government’s operations. And Boehner’s conservatives – who are taking their lead from Cruz – are not interested in giving up on their fight to defund Obamacare. There’s next to no trust in leadership’s strategies, and even less in Boehner himself.

( VIDEO: Mitt Romney thinks there's a better way to stop Obamacare)

The last few weeks have been a game of whack-a-mole for Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.): they’ve cycled through a number of strategies to both fund the government, and lift the debt limit. But each time they do, the party’s conservative wing shoots it down and demands a new plan.

GOP leadership will try once again to wrangle support for something – anything – on Saturday, when they meet in a closed session in the Capitol basement. House leadership said they might not even vote on a CR Saturday; that vote could slip until Sunday, Republicans lawmakers and aides said.