Panjshiris, as the ethnic Tajiks of the valley are known, went on to dominate the initial post-Taliban order here. But they soon saw some of their influence wane as Americans pushed to install more technocrats in the government and Mr. Karzai sought to placate the Pashtuns, the largest ethnic group in the country, from which the Taliban draw almost all their support.

Mention Mr. Karzai, who is Pashtun, in the valley nowadays, and you are likely to hear him dismissed as Taliban along with most other Pashtuns.

“They’re all Taliban,” said Abbas Zahiri, 19, who grills kebabs at a restaurant in Bazarak, the provincial capital. “We don’t want them to come here.”

Concerns about a Taliban resurgence are not confined to Panjshir. In other areas of northern and western Afghanistan that tried to resist Taliban conquest nearly 20 years ago, and mostly failed, old mujahedeen commanders are talking about rearming their militias. They fear the coming election may be as fraud-filled as the last one, and the result will be a fractured government and a resurgent Taliban.

The concerns have been heightened by Mr. Karzai’s refusal to sign a long-term security agreement that would keep American-led forces in Afghanistan past 2014, and Panjshiris may already be taking action. Western security experts and senior Afghan defense officials say Panjshiri boasts about squirreling away weapons throughout the valley are credible.

Still, the incessant chatter in Panjshir about weapons and war and betrayal can seem a bit incongruous. The number of Taliban attacks here in the past decade can be counted on a single hand, and foreigners feel safe enough to make day trips from Kabul to picnic and hike.