While the economy continues to create jobs, we’ve been tracking nominal wages as well as job growth, and it’s clear from this that continued slack in the labor market has left workers without bargaining power to bid up their wages. And it may be some time before wage growth gets anywhere near 3.5 to 4 percent, a growth rate that would be consistent with the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target and assumption of 1.5 percent productivity. Eventually, wage growth at that rate could even begin to claw back labor share of corporate-sector income, which has not even started moving in the right direction since the recession began.

This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for October 2014. These data allow us to look at real (inflation-adjusted) wages. The figure below shows real average hourly earnings of all private employees (top line) and production/nonsupervisory workers (bottom line) since the recession began in December 2007. For both series, you can see that real wages fell during the recession, then jumped up in late 2008 in direct response to a drop in inflation. When inflation falls and nominal wages hold steady, the mathematical result is a rise in inflation-adjusted wags. After the deflation leading up to 2009 stopped boosting real wages, wage growth has been flat.

Real Wage Real average hourly earnings, December 2007– November 2014 All private employees Production/Nonsupervisory Dec-2007 $23.84 $19.90 Jan-2008 $23.79 $19.88 Feb-2008 $23.81 $19.89 Mar-2008 $23.83 $19.90 Apr-2008 $23.79 $19.90 May-2008 $23.76 $19.86 Jun-2008 $23.56 $19.72 Jul-2008 $23.47 $19.65 Aug-2008 $23.62 $19.76 Sep-2008 $23.63 $19.77 Oct-2008 $23.89 $20.01 Nov-2008 $24.44 $20.43 Dec-2008 $24.71 $20.67 Jan-2009 $24.65 $20.64 Feb-2009 $24.62 $20.60 Mar-2009 $24.69 $20.69 Apr-2009 $24.71 $20.69 May-2009 $24.69 $20.68 Jun-2009 $24.51 $20.55 Jul-2009 $24.56 $20.59 Aug-2009 $24.56 $20.59 Sep-2009 $24.51 $20.60 Oct-2009 $24.50 $20.58 Nov-2009 $24.48 $20.58 Dec-2009 $24.47 $20.60 Jan-2010 $24.50 $20.64 Feb-2010 $24.55 $20.68 Mar-2010 $24.57 $20.68 Apr-2010 $24.61 $20.74 May-2010 $24.66 $20.80 Jun-2010 $24.65 $20.81 Jul-2010 $24.68 $20.81 Aug-2010 $24.68 $20.83 Sep-2010 $24.69 $20.82 Oct-2010 $24.68 $20.86 Nov-2010 $24.63 $20.81 Dec-2010 $24.54 $20.72 Jan-2011 $24.58 $20.76 Feb-2011 $24.48 $20.68 Mar-2011 $24.37 $20.58 Apr-2011 $24.34 $20.55 May-2011 $24.32 $20.53 Jun-2011 $24.31 $20.50 Jul-2011 $24.34 $20.53 Aug-2011 $24.25 $20.48 Sep-2011 $24.23 $20.45 Oct-2011 $24.34 $20.49 Nov-2011 $24.29 $20.49 Dec-2011 $24.30 $20.48 Jan-2012 $24.27 $20.44 Feb-2012 $24.26 $20.41 Mar-2012 $24.26 $20.40 Apr-2012 $24.29 $20.45 May-2012 $24.33 $20.47 Jun-2012 $24.37 $20.47 Jul-2012 $24.43 $20.52 Aug-2012 $24.29 $20.41 Sep-2012 $24.24 $20.33 Oct-2012 $24.17 $20.32 Nov-2012 $24.31 $20.42 Dec-2012 $24.38 $20.45 Jan-2013 $24.40 $20.50 Feb-2013 $24.31 $20.43 Mar-2013 $24.38 $20.50 Apr-2013 $24.47 $20.55 May-2013 $24.46 $20.54 Jun-2013 $24.47 $20.53 Jul-2013 $24.42 $20.53 Aug-2013 $24.46 $20.53 Sep-2013 $24.46 $20.55 Oct-2013 $24.49 $20.58 Nov-2013 $24.52 $20.61 Dec-2013 $24.48 $20.61 Jan-2014 $24.50 $20.63 Feb-2014 $24.55 $20.71 Mar-2014 $24.53 $20.65 Apr-2014 $24.47 $20.62 May-2014 $24.44 $20.59 Jun-2014 $24.44 $20.58 Jul-2014 $24.43 $20.59 Aug-2014 $24.56 $20.69 Sep-2014 $24.54 $20.66 Oct-2014 $24.57 $20.70 Nov-2014 $24.66 $20.74 Chart Data Download data The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the figure. Note: Earnings are adjusted to November 2014 dollars. Source: Author analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics's Current Employment Statistics and Consumer Price Index, public data series. Share on Facebook Tweet this chart Embed Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Download image

The second figure below charts the year over year change in real hourly earnings for both series over the last four years, notably after the spikes in real wages associated with a brief deflationary period. From the figure, it is obvious that wages for both series—all private sector and production/nonsupervisory workers—have stayed close to zero over the entire period. Both the nominal wage series and the real wage series tell a consistent story. Wages are continuing to flat line far into the so-called recovery.