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It’s been a strong start to the Championship season for Leeds United.

They currently sit top of the table ahead of Swansea on goal difference after winning five of their eight league matches so far this season.

However, they were left frustrated on Saturday afternoon after Derby County scored a stoppage time equaliser to rescue a point from a match that was largely dominated by the home side.

It was a very familiar story for United who created plenty of chances but failed to find that decisive second goal that ultimately would have been enough to secure all three points. It now means they have dropped points in three of their previous four home league games.

That sequence becomes that bit more frustrating when evaluating the dominance of Marcelo Bielsa’s men across those fixtures. On Saturday alone, Leeds created 15 attempts on goal and registered an Expected goal (xG) total of 2.44.

(Image: Alex Dodd/CameraSport)

A reminder that xG offers an insight into the likelihood of a shot being scored by considering aspects such as difficulty and location, and it tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals based on their chances. In Leeds’ case, their xG highlights that they should have scored closer to two or three goals based on the quality of chances they created on the Derby goal.

For comparison, Derby managed an xG of just 0.27, highlighting that they were rather fortunate to come away with a point.

In truth though, not converting high quality chances has been a recurring issue for Leeds. With a combined xG total of 18.50, they have proven themselves as the most dominant side in the Championship terms of creating high quality chances on the opposition's goal this season.

However, their goal return of 13 ranks as at underwhelming fourth in the league. It also highlights that they have scored close to six goals fewer than what you would have expected based on the quality of chances they have created.

The best explanation for this seems to come down to poor finishing from attackers in front of goal, and it’s an issue that plagued United last season too. In terms of the four sides with the highest league xG in the Championship last year, Leeds were the only team who failed to outscore their xG total.

(Image: Wyscout)

So far this season, Leeds have had 12 players who have posted a combined xG total of 0.20 or above. Yet alarmingly, just two of those 12 players have managed to outperform their xG. Those two players were Pablo Hernandez and Eddie Nketiah. The other ten players have all underperformed.

(Image: Wyscout)

The impact of the above is telling when you compare the same to Leeds’ top spot rivals Swansea City.

Steve Cooper’s side have scored just one goal fewer than Leeds and currently have 11 players who can boast an xG total of over 0.20. Yet, a key difference is that they currently have six players overperforming in terms of their xG.

(Image: Wyscout)

The consequence of the above for both sides is that Swansea are currently needing fewer high quality chances to score, whilst Leeds are requiring a larger amount of high quality chances to find the back of the net.

The good news for Leeds is that over the course of a season, it would be expected that xG and goal return would tend to even itself out. However, this isn't always the way - specifically in the case of accurate forward players.

This is evident when looking at the Championship’s top ten goal scorers from last season. All but one on the list outperformed their xG totals.

(Image: Wyscout)

This is perhaps what Leeds are lacking. United’s most relied upon forward also happens to be their biggest underperformer in terms of xG - that is Patrick Bamford.

His xG total of 5.57 should have seen him score closer to six goals, rather than the four he has returned so far. Notably, he also fell short of his xG total of 10.36 last season with a goal return of nine.

Additionally, his goal conversion rate of 15.24% last season ranked 23rd in the division in terms of Championship centre-forward’s who played over 1500 league minutes.

The evidence would therefore suggest that Bamford is perhaps lacking that clinical touch that Leeds require. However, he is effective within Bielsa’s high octane philosophy which might explain why he is so heavily relied upon by the Argentine coach.

All of the above suggests that whilst Leeds are arguably the most creative side in the division in terms of high quality chances, they are lacking an accurate finisher inside the penalty area in order to convert those chances on a more regular basis.

Given that they faced similar issues in the previous season, there is unlikely to be a drastic improvement in this regard over the remainder over the campaign.

However, providing that they continue to outperform sides in such a manner that wins are fully deserved, then the results should over the course of the year follow suit.