Packers (11-0) at Giants (6-5)

Sunday, 4:15 p.m.

Line: Packers by 7.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns in a winning effort a few weeks ago, but he was not satisfied with his performance. “I didn’t throw the ball very well,” he said after the game, a 35-26 win over Tampa Bay on Nov. 20. “I’m not trying to be ridiculously humble right now. I’m just frustrated.”

Rodgers’s quotation shines a light on a major problem gripping the N.F.L.: ridiculous humility, the absurd self-denigration to which great players succumb when they avoid expressing satisfaction or joy at achieving anything short of seven straight Super Bowl championships. We have grown so used to hearing Tom Brady-types say “we still have a lot of work to do” after 38-20 victories that we fail to notice that it has transcended professionalism or constructive criticism, becoming a pantomime of masochistic self denial. With Rodgers at least addressing the ridiculous humility phenomenon and Charles Woodson acknowledging last month that an undefeated season is a desirable goal, the Packers now represent the vanguard of football honesty: the one team daring enough to occasionally express pride.

Rodgers should throw for 400 yards against a Giants defense full of rookies and backups. He may still feel frustrated after the game. Imagine how Tom Coughlin will feel. Pick: Packers.



Falcons (7-4) at Texans (8-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Falcons by 2.5.

Things are falling apart in Houston, where center Chris Myers does not hold, but he does cut block. The Falcons heard the falconer and won two straight games. Multiple quarterback injuries have loosed anarchy upon the Texans, who turn to W.B. Yeats — oops, T.J. Yates — to stem the blood-dimmed tide. The losses of Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart have caused the second coming of Jake Delhomme, who slouched off to Houston to sign a new contract Tuesday. Delhomme is full of passionate intensity, and he is not quite the worst: Brett Favre, with his gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, was also mentioned as a possible replacement.

A third-string quarterback has little hope against the balanced, efficient Falcons. Gary Kubiak must prepare Yates and Delhomme for an upcoming slate of winnable games against the Colts and Panthers so the Texans can clinch their division and avoid another century of stony sleep.

(Between Yates and the early-season Mike Kafka references, my editors have heroically decided to burn the office copy of “The Norton Anthology of World Literature.” We promise this will not happen again.) Pick: Falcons.

Colts (0-11) at Patriots (8-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Patriots by 20.

In what can only be interpreted as a “Producers”-like effort to be as terrible as possible, the Colts acquired their third former member of the winless 2008 Lions this week. Fullback Jerome Felton joins Dan Orlovsky — now the starting quarterback — and Ernie Sims to give the Colts a noncoincidental cluster of players who know just how an 0-16 season works. They also fired the defensive coordinator Larry Coyer for the crime of running the same defense he has run for the last two years but without being spotted 30 points by the offense. The linebackers coach Mike Murphy takes over, but only because Franz Liebkind was not available.

On top of all of their other woes, the Colts have the worst special teams in the N.F.L. Their punt returners average just 2.2 yards per return; factor in 14 fair catches, and that average drops to 1.3 yards. The primary return man, Blair White, is 2.06 yards tall, so he would be better off catching punts and falling straight forward than doing whatever he currently does. The punter-kickoff specialist Pat McAfee, meanwhile, leads the team in special teams tackles. It is good to know that one Colts player has not yet quit. Pick: Patriots.

Lions (7-4) at Saints (8-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

Line: Saints by 9.

The former Lions coach Steve Mariucci believes that someone besides the current coach Jim Schwartz should be assigned to discipline Ndamukong Suh, who is suspended for this game after treating a Packers lineman like a cigarette butt on Thanksgiving. Who is up to such a challenge? Supernanny? Sister Mary Stigmata from “The Blues Brothers”? If last month’s heart-to-heart talk with Roger Goodell had no impact on Suh, it may be time for the “Clockwork Orange” treatment: in the event of a late hit, simply play “Ode to Joy” over the loudspeakers and watch Suh curl into the fetal position.

With Suh, the Lions had the potential to bring pressure up the middle and force Drew Brees to move out of the pocket. Without him, Brees will only suffer from his usual “which wide-open receiver should I throw to” anxiety. Pick: Saints.

Bengals (7-4) at Steelers (8-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 6.5.

Come for the division rivalry and the hard hits; stay for the wire fu. Bengals receiver Jerome Simpson paid homage to Hong Kong cinema last week when a Browns defender brushed against him after a play. Simpson flew backward about 5 yards, and the theatrics had the desired effect: the defender was penalized for unnecessary roughness. The move was so amazing that Simpson’s Wikipedia page was updated with an “Acting Career” category, and the Wachowski brothers are developing a Bengals highlight project.

The Steelers get defenders LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu back this week, and the Bengals must do whatever it takes to prove they can win at least once against the A.F.C. North superpowers, even if it means using the Steelers’ hard-hitting reputation against them. Do not be surprised if this game descends into a production of Crouching Bengal, Hidden Steeler. Pick: Steelers.

Ravens (8-3) at Browns (4-7)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 6.5.

The Ravens have followed every “statement” win this season with a loss to an inferior opponent: losses to the Seahawks, the Titans and the Jaguars followed big wins against the Steelers (twice) and the Texans. So avoiding a letdown was a major topic of conversation for the Ravens after beating the 49ers on Thanksgiving. “We’ve got to conquer a demon in Cleveland,” John Harbaugh said.

Perhaps that is why Joe Flacco now sports a Fu Manchu mustache: goofy facial hair has been known to ward off evil spirits (and women). Flacco said the new mustache was an effort to “get everybody to get on the bandwagon here on our offense. It’s kind of tough convincing everybody.” The Ravens’ offense has never had a bandwagon, and if it did, no one would get on board with a bunch of guys who look like Mike Piazza circa 1993. Pick: Ravens.

Titans (6-5) at Bills (5-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Bills by 2.5.

If he scores a touchdown this week, Steve Johnson will lampoon the injured Titans receiver Kenny Britt with an end zone dance interpretation of a two-hour wait in the violations line of New Jersey’s Motor Vehicle Commission branch in Bayonne. He will also spoof Nate Washington if he can discover anything noteworthy about Nate Washington. Bob Costas will chide Johnson for his antics and all of us for watching them, and the Titans will win after Johnson drops three easy touchdown passes and Matt Hasselbeck sets up Rod Bironas for a game-winning field goal with his longest pass of the day: a 4-yard screen to Javon Ringer. Pick: Titans.

Jets (6-5) at Redskins (4-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Jets by 3.

Last week Mark Sanchez became the fourth N.F.L. quarterback to throw four touchdown passes in a fourth-quarter comeback victory yet still pass for fewer than 200 yards. He was also the first quarterback since Tommy Kramer in 1979 to throw four touchdown passes in a comeback victory while completing fewer than 50 percent of his passes. (Thanks to the statistical researcher Scott Kacsmar for the data.) Whether you consider these feats proof that Sanchez is great or terrible has everything to do with your preconceptions of Sanchez, whose performances have a knack for being both a vase and two faces. Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman spent his Bears career proving that a team with a good defense can endure some pretty erratic quarterbacking, and Sanchez is determined to provide further evidence. Polarized arguments about Sanchez’s merits ultimately serve only one useful purpose: they give Eli Manning a break. Pick: Jets.

Panthers (3-8) at Buccaneers (4-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 3.5.

The Desert Eagle semiautomatic handgun can produce nearly 1,800 foot-pounds of muzzle energy when fired, enough energy to blast a hole clean through the Buccaneers’ playoff hopes. Quarterback Josh Freeman severely cut his finger while spending some quality time with his weapon of choice at a firing range in late October. There is nothing wrong with obliterating a few targets unless, like Freeman, you are recovering from a sprain of the same finger, prefer a weapon known for its severe recoil and need your right hand in peak condition to do your job properly. Freeman played through the finger injury, but his accuracy was off, and now he also has a shoulder injury. The backup Josh Johnson took most of the passing snaps with the first team, with Freeman limited to handoffs. If Johnson starts against Cam Newton, the two speedy quarterbacks should forget football and hold a track meet. Meanwhile, Freeman can pamper his sore shoulder by launching a few rocket-propelled grenades. Pick: Panthers.

Chiefs (4-7) at Bears (7-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Bears by 7.

In this edition of Overengineered Solutions to Simple Problems, we will explore various methods of designing a game plan for a backup quarterback with limited talent. The Todd Haley Method: abandon the downfield passing game entirely and install a Wildcat-like package with a backup cornerback taking snaps from center. The Mike Martz Method: cram the game plan with elaborate, complicated screen passes, then use your best running back as a deep receiver instead of just handing him the ball. The Common Sense Method — employing better backups than Tyler Palko and Caleb Hanie in the first place, then showing a little confidence in them while scaling the game plan back slightly — is too simplistic and effective for the modern N.F.L. offensive guru. Pick: Bears.

Raiders (7-4) at Dolphins (3-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Dolphins by 3.

The Raiders are 7-4 for the first time since 2002, the last season they went to the Super Bowl. Isn’t that great news, cornerback Stanford Routt? “Seven-and-four is also a gift and a curse. Right now we’re still leading the division. If we go in and pee down our leg and wind up finishing second in the division, it’s going to be an embarrassment.” Buddy, the Chargers are way ahead of you in that department. The surprising point spread is the result of Raiders injuries: running back Darren McFadden and several receivers are hobbled, forcing the Raiders to try to win with defense, special teams and Routt’s lukewarm brand of optimism. Pick: Dolphins.

Broncos (6-5) at Vikings (2-9)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 1.5.

The Vikings were facing a midweek blackout: 3,000 tickets remained for this game on Wednesday, despite a visit from the football equivalent of Justin Bieber. The Vikings are trying to float a stadium referendum, but if fans will not pay to see Tim Tebow, what hope does the team have of selling them on Christian Ponder? The Vikings ended up purchasing the tickets themselves, and the 3,000 fans who received them will be asked to either try out as long snappers so Jared Allen can stop doing it or form a human chain to try to stop Von Miller. Pick: Broncos.

Rams (2-9) at 49ers (9-2)

Sunday, 4:15 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 13.

The 49ers clinch the N.F.C. West with a win, but that does not mean Jim Harbaugh will start resting starters. “We’ve got five games to play and they’ll all be critical,” he said Tuesday. Also, taking a full month off is not resting, it’s unemployment. Instead of spending December mall-hopping, the 49ers must work on their pass protection: Alex Smith was sacked nine times by the Ravens, and Harbaugh broke the sacks down into a 3-by-3 matrix of miscues. “Three of them we got beat on the protection call,” he said, adding, “Three other times we got physically beat. And then maybe there were two other ones Alex could’ve gotten rid of it quicker.” That is only eight, but N.F.L. coaches do not like to quibble about statistics. Pick: 49ers.

Cowboys (7-4) at Cardinals (4-7)

Sunday, 4:15 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 4.5.

Kevin Kolb is expected to return for the Cardinals, and not a moment too soon. The team succumbed to the latest N.F.L. Wildcat neurosis, the cornerback-as-quarterback phenomenon, when Patrick Peterson lined up to take a shotgun snap last week. He fumbled it. “Right when I was securing the ball into my right hand, my knee hit the tail end of the ball and that kind of popped it out,” he said. “But, man, if I had the opportunity to hang on to that ball, I believe I was going the distance.” Yes, it would have been huge, had the ball not bounced off his knee and dribbled four yards downfield. In his official statistics, Peterson gets credit for recovering the fumble, but not for forcing it. Pick: Cowboys.

Chargers (4-7) at Jaguars (3-8)

Monday, 8:30 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 2.5.

The Jaguars fired Jack Del Rio, announced the sale of their franchise, and extended the contract of General Manager Gene Smith in the course of about six hours Tuesday. It was as if they were trying to get three years’ worth of headlines out of the way in one morning so we could all go back to ignoring them. The lesson from Del Rio’s firing: it is better to accept responsibility for your late-game decisions, no matter how mind-bogglingly foolish, than to blame them on your offensive coordinator. Norv Turner is living, gainfully-employed proof. Pick: Chargers.