Normal text size Larger text size Very large text size There’s nothing quite like an Indian general election. The mass rallies held in searing heat – a trademark of India's electioneering – are something to behold. There's always a lively cast of political characters and a staggering array of parties. But it's the sheer scale that really sets this ballot apart. This year’s poll, which launched on April 11 and ends with the announcement of the result later today, has been the largest democratic exercise in history. About 900 million people are eligible to take part – that’s about one-eighth of the world’s population. The next-largest constituency, which elects the European Parliament, is less than half that size. Over the past five weeks, nearly 4 million election officials and millions more security personnel have managed 1 million polling stations during India’s seven-phase democratic marvel. About two-thirds of voters cast ballots, even though voting is not compulsory. And there were predictions that more women would vote than men for the first time in a general election. Indian nationals living in Australia were able to register as “overseas electors” but they could only cast a vote in the general election at a polling booth in India.


A man shows his support for Narendra Modi's party at a mass rally in Kolkata in April. Credit:Alamy How does India's political system work? India has a Westminster-style government. A simple first-past-the-post system is used to elect the 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the name for India’s lower house. (Most members of the 245-seat upper house, the Rajya Sabha, are elected by the parliaments of the 29 states and the seven union territories.) In Australia, an average 100,000 voters live in each federal electorate. In India the typical lower-house MP represents an average of about 1.6 million voters; Malakajgiri, near Hyderabad, boasted 3.182 million electors at the last election – that's just voters, not constituents. A party or coalition with a majority in the Lok Sabha will form the government. Cutouts of Modi before a rally in Kolkata. Credit:Alamy The many moods of Modi: will he prevail again? The election has been cast as a referendum on the incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. According to exit polls, it's a referendum he has won.


Five years ago Modi led the Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party) and its allies to a historic victory. It was the first time in three decades that a single party had won an absolute majority. A gifted orator, Modi promised development and an end to corruption. He also appealed to the majority Hindu population with a brand of pro-Hindu nationalism. Modi’s humble beginnings have been an electoral asset in a nation where GDP per person is less than $2780 a year. Modi’s humble beginnings – his father owned a tea stall – have been an electoral asset in a nation where GDP per person is less than $US2000 a year ($A2780). “He’s got a very relatable story to tell and he’s told it brilliantly,” says Professor Robin Jeffrey, a leading India scholar at the National University of Singapore. Modi’s success has come despite a contentious political career. In 2002, when he was chief minister of Gujarat, hundreds of Muslims across the state died in riots. The rampage was in “retaliation” to the deaths of 59 Hindus killed in an attack. Modi has been accused of being slow to stop the bloodshed although he denies these allegations and none have ever been proved. Modi takes a selfie with his party's lotus symbol before his election win in 2014. Credit:AP


There have been missteps during his five-year tenure. A scheme to combat corruption by withdrawing all high-value bank notes from circulation overnight in 2016 caused huge disruption. The introduction of a goods and services tax also came at a political cost. While economic growth has been healthy, the rate of jobs growth has been lacklustre. Modi is the campaign. Without him the whole thing would fall apart. Critics also allege the BJP’s strident Hindu nationalism is dividing the nation and fraying its secular, democratic traditions. Dr Manisha Priyam, a Delhi-based political analyst, said Modi’s political narrative is different to when he won office in 2014. “He came to power with the promise of jobs and a pro-people development agenda but now he is mainly talking about national security and a place for India as a world power,” she says. “It has to be seen if people will forget the old promises.”


Modi, 68, remains a central figure in the BJPs re-election bid. “Modi is the campaign,” says Jeffrey. “Without him the whole thing would fall apart.” The BJP’s electoral pitch was set to be boosted by a dash of Bollywood – a big-budget biopic favourably depicting Modi’s life in politics was due to be released ahead of polling. But India’s election commission banned the movie during the election period amid claims it would serve as propaganda. Rahul Gandhi in New Delhi in March. Credit:Bloomberg The return of the Gandhis Modi's key challenger is Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Indian National Congress party, which has governed for much of the time since independence in 1947. Gandhi’s political pedigree is unmatched: his father Rajiv, grandmother Indira and great-grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru were all prime ministers. His mother, Sonia, was a dominant figure in the Congress-led government that ruled between 2004 and 2014. The party was trounced at the last general election but its prospects appeared to improve late last year when the Congress beat incumbent BJP governments in a clutch of state elections.


An early '70s snapshot of Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi with Rahul and Priyanka. Credit:Alamy Gandhi, 48, unveiled an eye-catching promise to provide a guaranteed income of 6000 rupees per month (about $120) to the poorest fifth of the population. Gandhi claims the scheme, known by its Hindi acronym of “Nyay” (or justice), will be a “surgical strike” on poverty. The morale of Congress supporters was boosted in January by the formal entry into politics of Rahul’s 47-year-old sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who is routinely compared with their grandmother, who was assassinated in 1984. Priyanka has been tasked with reviving Congress in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous. Priyanka Gandhi, above, shows her support for child-care workers in Uttar Pradesh: "My sister's struggle, my struggle." As well as Priyanka Gandhi, two other women have risen to challenge Modi’s bid for re-election. The fiery populist Mamta Banerjee, 64, is leader of the Trinamool Congress Party and chief minister of West Bengal, another crucial electoral battleground. A vociferous critic of Modi, she controlled a sizeable bloc of seats in the outgoing parliament and could wield great influence should her party again do well. Women of influence: who else has sway? The other woman is Mayawati (she goes by the one name), a self-styled champion of low-caste communities and a three times chief minister of the giant Uttar Pradesh state. The political fortunes of her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have fluctuated but Mayawati may emerge as a key figure in any coalition negotiations following the election. Regional parties such as those led by Banerjee and Mayawati are a growing force in India’s national politics. Many of them appeal to local language groups spread across India’s diverse population. Should regional parties poll well, and the Congress Party claw back a portion of the electoral territory it lost in 2014, that might create the possibility of an “anti-BJP” coalition government. “Congress is fighting along with a lot of other regional parties, they alone cannot take on the BJP,” says Priyam Manisha. “It is difficult to predict the outcome but there is now a far greater opposition to Mr Modi than there was in 2014.” Modi, above, has 46.8m followers on Twitter, where he is referring to himself as chowkidar, or watchman, after violence flared in Kashmir. What effect might Kashmir have? A high-stakes military confrontation between India and Pakistan in late February has bolstered the BJP’s nationalist electoral pitch. Tit-for-tat aerial bombings by the nuclear-armed neighbours followed a deadly suicide attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. The region has been in dispute since British India was split into Pakistan and India in 1947. The recent punch-up India had with Pakistan seems to have done the BJP a world of good. Robin Jeffrey says the latest skirmish could swing a “nationalist-inspired electorate towards a tough-talking government” and help put Modi and the BJP in power for another five years. “The recent punch-up India had with Pakistan seems to have done the BJP a world of good,” he says. Economic factors may be less favourable for the government, especially a scarcity of good jobs and the entrenched challenges facing India’s vast rural population. Supporters of Modi's BJP at a rally of 150,000 people in Kolkata in April. Credit:Alamy What about the youth vote? Half of India’s population is younger than 27. More than 100 million have voted for the first time in a national election – that’s about six times the number of voters on the entire Australian electoral roll. Modi won the support of many young people at the last election. But the director of Melbourne University’s Australia India Institute, Professor Craig Jeffrey, says there is some doubt about how they will cast their votes this time. Many were very excited about the BJP’s vision for India in 2014. Whether they remain as excited in 2019 is a key question. “These voters are typically facing diminished job prospects and are often concerned about the challenges they face finding education and training,” he says. “Many were very excited about the BJP’s vision for India articulated in 2014. Whether they remain as excited in 2019 is a key question. My general sense is that youth still support the BHP in large numbers. This reflects their perception that social problems have a long history, Modi’s personal charisma, and the weakness of the opposition.” A man and youth watch election campaign ads on a phone in New Delhi in April. Credit:AP Is fake news an issue in India? Political parties have launched ambitious social media campaigns in a bid to sell their messages to the vast electorate. The Hindustan Times recently reported the BJP planned to assign about 900,000 supporters to the tasks of localised campaigning using the messaging service WhatsApp. But there are fears a deluge of political fake news will influence the election. Fact-checking websites such as boomlive.com and factchecker.in have revealed a large number of false and misleading political stories and videos. A supporter takes time out during a rally for Rahul Gandhi in New Delhi in March. Credit:Bloomberg What's the likely upshot? Several opinion polls, including exit polls, have predicted the BJP and its allies will be returned with a majority. But the sheer size and diversity of the electorate makes accurate opinion polling extremely difficult.