Dallas, last season, was historically bad in close games. That 24-win squad played in close games 50 times, the second-most in the league, and won just 12 of them, by far the worst percentage among any NBA team last year. (Close games are defined by a five-point margin either way within the final five minutes.) They underperformed their net rating by about nine games, which was the second-worst result for any team in the past 15 years. In a normal season, the Mavericks should have finished 33-49, according to expected win/loss formula. Consider that, and consider the team adding two new starters, and it’s no surprise this roster might have the most variance in the entire league.



The Mavericks, barring catastrophe, won’t tank this season. It’s almost certain they’ll lose their draft pick, a top-five protected first rounder owed to Atlanta due to the Luka Doncic trade. The over/under most commonly cited for this team is 34.5 wins, but...