An empirical look at the Arab Spring

IN FEBRUARY we put together an index that attempted to predict which Arab regime would be toppled next. At the time Libya seemed rather an unlikely candidate for regime change, even though the index suggested Muammar Qaddafi's time as Brother-Leader might be numbered. Below is the interactive version of the Shoe Thrower's Index, set with the weightings we originally chose. Play around with it to explore the factors that created fertile soil for the Arab Spring.