Aside from getting to see all of the shiny new acquisitions, Reds fans will be widdling down the roster in their brains, tinkering with lineups in the hope that manager David Bell ever asks for their advice. The biggest thing Reds fans will have their eye on, however, is first base. Which version of Joey Votto will they see?

In 2017, Joey Votto had arguably his best season. He finished in the top 3 in the nl mvp voting for the third time in his career, slashing .320/.454/.578. In 2018, he had an admittedly down year, only slashing .284/.417/.419, though it was still good enough to lead the league in .obp. In 2019, he doubled down, with his worst season of his career, even accumulating less WAR (1.6) than his injury shortened 2014 season (1.9), slashing a pedestrian .261/.357/.411. On second thought, “pedestrian” is a little too generous as it would seem to imply walking, which he did only 76 times in 142 games. For reference, his career avg. per 162 games is 111.

After two consecutive downward trending seasons, you’ve got to wonder how much of a factor Father Time is having on him. Joey will be doing everything he can to assure us (and himself) that it is not the case. Baseball Reference projects him to have a .273/.385/.449 season, which would be a big improvement, more along the lines of his 2018 self, which we’d happily take.

One thing to point out is that his batting avg on balls in play was a career worst .313 for a full season. That should likely trend closer to his career avg of .349. He doesn’t need to show up in mvp form, as he will be batting in the midst of a stacked lineup. He just can’t be the weak link either. With boppers batting behind him, pitchers won’t have the luxury of batting around him. Joey needs to check in with his eye doc, make sure his plate vision is still good and hit the balls thrown down the pipe.

The 2020 Reds are going to be a tough team to pitch to, and that will help each of them, making it even tougher. You won’t need 2020 vision to see “Who” is on first. Joey Votto is going to have a comeback player of the year type of season. You should get excited.

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