Talk about letting the air out of the balloon. Despite the elements, the initial pressure from New York and the general inability to finish their shots, the Sounders still found themselves with a lead. Thanks to the sure foot of Brad Evans both in drawing a handball penalty Robbie Keane would be proud of and calming putting home the penalty shot, the Sounders lead the New York Red Bulls 1-0. Unfortunately, after a failure to clear (uncalled offsides be damned) and a failure to finish, the Sounders found themselves with only one point and a 1-1 draw.

That draw dropped their Shield odds by about 11 percent, making the Red Bulls of New York still alive in the Shield race and now our primary competition. The Sounders now have a 42.1% chance to clinch the Supporter's Shield, the homefield advantage, the allocation money and the Champions League berth that come with it. Solid odds, no doubt, but nothing quite like the 60 percent-or-so odds if we had held onto those two points. Oh, what could have been.

In this edition, I'll examine who our primary Shield competitors are, which of their possible finishes is most likely and finally, how each finish might play out. There seems to be a pretty solid idea of what results the Sounders need the rest of the way to clinch the Shield; this exercise is to reinforce that a 60 point finish with 3 wins will put Seattle in an excellent position to take home the regular season silverware.

The Competition

Club Record (W-D-L) Points Matches Left Shield Odds Seattle Sounders FC 15 - 6 - 8 51 5 42.1 New York Red Bulls 15 - 7 - 9 52 3 24.4 Real Salt Lake 15 - 6 - 10 51 3 13.7 Portland Timbers 12 - 13 - 5 49 4 12.2 Sporting Kansas City 14 - 6 - 10 48 4 4.2 Montreal Impact 13 - 7 - 9 46 5 2.5

Odds via Sports Club Stats

First things first, please go ahead and scratch both Sporting Kansas City and Montreal off your Shield contender's lists. Thanks to Montreal's poor recent form and Friday's lovely road performance by Philadelphia, their Shield hopes are all but gone.

As an aside, I found nothing but poetic justice in the waning minutes of the SKC-PHI match: everyone's favorite referee, Ricardo Salazar had just carded Ike Opara after a foul. The SKC supporters, no doubt realizing their Shield dreams slipping away, began to chant "Salazar Sucks!" After hearkening back to our own SKC-Salazar mishaps in the US Open Cup final last year, it's always great to see justice come full circle.

Back to the odds. Aside from New York, we have two other Shield competitors: Real Salt Lake and Portland. Both sides have similar and relatively small odds at the Shield, mostly due to the fact they play each other one more time, but are dangerous and still have a chance.

New York Red Bulls

Finish Record (W-D-L) Odds Shield Odds 1 seed Scenario (W-D-L) 56 points (1 - 1 - 1) 20.99 2.9 61 CHI - NE - HOU 58 points (2 - 0 - 1) 20.55 29 88 NE, CHI - 0 - HOU 59 points (2 - 1 - 0) 16.64 54.8 96 NE, CHI - HOU - 0

Since the Red Bulls of New York in New Jersey only have 3 matches remaining, their likely scenarios are much fewer, with certain scenarios having very high odds, at least compared to the odds of each Sounders' scenario. New York can't finish with 60 points but can max out at 61, leaving the Sounders with a magic number of 62. Even a 59 point finish gives New York only slightly better odds at the Shield than a coin-flip. For them, they need at least two wins to have a shot at the Shield, and certainly can't lose.

As if you needed any more reason to root for a local boy, Kelyn Rowe and the New England Revolution play the Red Bulls this weekend. Our own Shield odds increase 7 percent if the Revs go into Red Bull Arena and win, while the Red Bull's odds tank to the tune of 18.7 percent. A loss to the Revs puts the Red Bulls in dire Shield straights, since playing Houston in Texas is no easy feat (just ask the Sounders).

Real Salt Lake

Finish Record (W-D-L) Odds Shield Odds 1 seed Scenario (W-D-L) 57 points (2 - 0 - 1) 24.37 9.9 22 DAL, CHV - 0 - POR 55 points (1 - 1 - 1) 22.6 0.3 3 CHV - DAL - POR 58 points (2 - 1 - 0) 16.13 33.6 53 DAL, CHV - POR - 0

The Lakers check in as a distant second Shield threat, thanks to a Dos A Cero result in Seattle three weeks ago. The Sounders were able to claim those much-needed three points and in doing so, really hurt the Shield chances for RSL. RSL will attempt to shake off the disappointment of losing the US Open Cup Final to lowly DC United this weekend as they play also-lowly FC Dallas. Since this match is in Sandy, RSL need all three points to remain in the Shield discussion. Lose to Dallas and see your Shield hopes drop 11.5% to almost nothing. Think a draw will suffice? Think again. One point at home drops their chances down almost 8%.

The fact that RSL and Portland both play each other one last time helps our chances greatly. If the Sounders are able to take care of business in Portland and knock the Timbers out of contention, Portland could return the favor a week later and knock off RSL. RSL could beat Portland and end their Shield hopes, but will need plenty of help from the opponents of the Red Bulls and Sounders to win the Shield. Or, the two sides could draw (as Portland is wont to do this season) and pretty much tarnish each other's Shield hopes simultaneously.

Portland Timbers

Finish Record (W-D-L) Odds Shield Odds 1 seed Scenario (W-D-L) 56 points (2 - 1 - 1) 19.45 1.1 8 VAN, CHV - RSL - SEA 58 points (3 - 0 - 1) 12.06 21.1 46 VAN, CHV, RSL - 0 - SEA 53 points (1 - 1 - 2) 10.62 Less than 0.1 53 CHV - VAN - RSL, SEA

The Timbers could foreseeably win out and finish at a maximum of 61 points. In this scenario, they have to beat the Sounders, which place their Shield odds at 82.2%. However, there's only a 4.5% that happens, since the Sounders could go 4-0-1 and get the Shield with 63 points. Winning out would also be a tall task for the Timbers, since they play MLS powerhouses in RSL, Seattle and Chivas USA.

Just kidding. RSL isn't an MLS powerhouse.

In the listed scenarios, you could really interchange RSL and SEA, since both matches are at JELD-WEN.

For the Sounders, it seems likely they either finish with 61 points or more and win the Shield, or finish with 58 points and have a 40% chance to win it. They probably get the West 1-seed with 58 points, but require plenty of help from Houston, New England and Chicago to keep New York at no better than 57.

It's pretty unlikely that any of New York, Real Salt Lake or Portland finishes with 60 points or more, so if the Sounders can grab 3 wins and finish with 60 points, they can call themselves the 2013 Supporter's Shield winners. Here is the most likely 60 point scenario for the Sounders:

Finish Record (W-D-L) Odds Shield Odds 1 seed Scenario (W-D-L) 60 points (3 - 0 - 2) 7.77 79.4 89 VAN, DAL, LAG - 0 - COL, POR

Hopefully they take a big step toward 60 and 3 this weekend in Colorado.