In 2020, Trump could shift some of his attention away from China and toward the European Union and the United Kingdom in an effort to redefine the U.S. relationship with both trading partners in the post-Brexit world.

But trade with Beijing and Tokyo will remain in the spotlight, as U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer embarks on “phase-two” negotiations with both countries.

Vietnam and other countries in Asia could also receive increased attention, if Trump remains serious about negotiating bilateral trade deals to replace the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership that he pulled out of on his third day in office.

Still, many questions remain about Trump’s vision for U.S. trade relations with the rest of the world in 2020 and beyond, if he wins a second term.

“We don’t know yet how the Administration will build from recent successes and work to strengthen the global trading system. We'd like to understand how they will connect all the dots and address important issues to the business community that remain problematic,” Brilliant said.

Here’s what to expect in the next 12 months:

European Union

Two ongoing disputes will give Trump a chance to levy more tariffs early in 2020. One involves the long-running World Trade Organization fight over European government support for Airbus and the EU’s counter complaint against U.S. support for Boeing.

The U.S. complaint is running ahead of the EU’s and Washington won the right in the fall to impose 100-percent duties on $7.5 billion worth of European goods. USTR only exercised some of that right by imposing a 10 percent duty on European aircraft and a 25 percent duty on a long list of cheeses, wines and other products.

Now, USTR is seeking comments by Jan. 13 on a proposal to hike those duties to 100 percent to increase pressure on Europe to drop its subsidies or reach a negotiated settlement. Duty increases could come shortly after the comment period ends.

In a separate action, USTR is threatening to impose unilateral duties on $2.4 billion of French sparkling wine, cheeses and other goods in retaliation for France’s new digital services tax. The United States believes that tax unfairly targets U.S. internet giants, but rather than litigate the matter at the WTO, it has decided the issue itself.

Once again, duties could come quickly after the public comment period ends on Jan. 14. But they would likely be met with trade retaliation by the EU, further roiling trade relations and potentially complicating efforts within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to reach a negotiated settlement on the digital services tax issue.

Even with the OECD talks underway, there’s little reason to think Trump will ignore the chance to impose more tariffs on Europe when given the opportunity, said Bill Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “He only has one arrow in his quiver and that’s tariffs,” Reinsch said.

A bigger question is whether talks on resolving the two disputes could morph into a full-fledged negotiation on a bilateral trade agreement, similar to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership the Obama administration pursued. But that seems unlikely unless the EU drops its resistance to including agriculture in the talks, while Trump remains fixated on auto imports that make up a large share of the U.S. trade deficit with the EU.

“We hope the Administration will turn its attention to building allies in Europe and elsewhere to enhance and modernize the global trading system,” Brilliant said. “But it’s not yet clear what their agenda with Europe will be. Business favors a strategic and multilateral approach; not just a narrow sectoral approach.”

The picture could be clearer after new EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan meets with Lighthizer in mid-January. “I will be seeking a reset of the EU/U.S. trade relationship on issues like tariffs on steel and aluminum and the threat of U.S. tariffs in response to a digital tax in Europe,” he recently told The Irish Times.

United Kingdom

Both Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson are eager to strike a bilateral free trade agreement after Britain leaves the EU on Jan. 31, but getting there “will be a lot more complex” than either side thinks, former U.S. trade negotiator Wendy Cutler said.

“It’s going to take the EU and the U.K. a year to figure out what their relationship is going to be and that’s going to affect what the U.S. gains from a bilateral,” Cutler said.

The two sides could make progress this year toward completing a deal, but it will be hard to finish the negotiation until London decides whether it wants to align itself more closely with U.S. or EU regulatory standards in areas ranging from agriculture to the environment, she said.

That will be a hard decision for the U.K., since the EU will still be its largest trading partner after it leaves the EU, and London will be reluctant to jeopardize long-time relationships on the continent by tilting too far toward U.S. demands.

The U.K. will be making those decisions in real time, since it will be negotiating its future trade relationship with the EU at the same time it is talking with the United States, Cutler said.

China

With a Senate trial on impeachment charges likely in full swing, Trump will sign a “phase-one” trade deal with China on Jan. 15, setting the stage for Beijing to buy an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. farm goods, manufactured products, energy and services by 2022.

China will also take on obligations to open its financial services markets, stop some forced technology transfers, better protect U.S. intellectual property and refrain from manipulating its currency for an unfair trade advantage as part of the deal.

But more stringent intellectual property protections and difficult structural issues like China’s massive government subsidies and other favors it showers on its state-owned enterprises are being saved for a phase-two negotiation, and possibly even a phase-three deal further in the future.

Trump said last week he would be traveling to Beijing this year to begin those negotiations. But China is unlikely to make major new commitments until it sees whether Trump is elected to a second term in November, Reinsch said.

POLITICO NEWSLETTERS Morning Trade A speed read on global trade news — weekday mornings, in your inbox. Sign Up Loading By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Japan

Trump’s decision to pull out of the TPP also blew up a comprehensive trade agreement the Obama administration negotiated with Japan as part of the pact. He made up some lost ground last year by negotiating a mini-deal covering agriculture and digital trade that went into force on Jan. 1. But business groups still want a larger package.

The United States and Japan have committed to begin talks on that bigger deal by the end of April, and are currently consulting over which sectors and issues could be included, said Cutler, who is now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

But as with China, talks on a phase two are likely to be slow-going because of the challenging issues involved. “I’m skeptical that either one will reach a timely conclusion,” Cutler said.

“We're still leaving a big hole in Asia,” Brilliant added. “The U.S.-Japan deal is a modest step and not a comprehensive trade agreement. We hope the administration would reconsider its position on the Trans-Pacific Partnership.”The World Trade Organization limps into 2020 with a weakened dispute settlement system after the Trump administration crippled the appellate body by blocking the appointment of new judges as old terms expired. Unless there’s progress on that issue by the June ministerial conference in Kazakhstan, the WTO risks becoming increasingly irrelevant, Cutler said.

WTO

A 2018 Trump tariff action also threatens to put enormous strain on the rules-based trade system. Lower-level dispute settlement panels could decide shortly before the November election whether Trump violated WTO rules by imposing duties on steel and aluminum imports in the name of national security. They also could rule on whether trading partners such as China and the EU acted improperly when they unilaterally retaliated against U.S. exports.

Back in Washington, Congress also has a right to vote every five years on whether to withdraw from the WTO. Lawmakers haven’t exercised that option since 2005, but a high-profile push by Trump could motivate action this year or at least test the limits of how far Congress is willing to follow his trade-disruptive instincts.

Vietnam and others in Southeast Asia

In the waning days of 2019, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro twice mentioned Vietnam as a target for trade talks in 2020. Vietnam, like Japan, is a member of the TPP pact that Trump abandoned. Vietnam also saw a big increase in its exports to the United States in 2019 after Trump began imposing tariffs on Chinese goods.

That could expose Hanoi to a possible tariff threat unless it agrees to sit down with Trump, Reinsch said. But getting a comprehensive deal through Congress would be tough unless Vietnam agrees to the kind of labor enforcement commitments that Mexico was forced to accept in the newly renegotiated NAFTA deal, he added.

Elsewhere in the region, Philippine officials hold out hope of launching free trade talks with the United States. But Trump balked at beginning negotiations last year after Democrats raised concerns over striking a deal with controversial President Roberto Duterte.

“When I look at Vietnam and the Philippines, I worry trade relations might deteriorate” rather than improve, Cutler said.

Taiwan

A bipartisan group of 161 lawmakers in December sent Lighthizer a letter urging him to work toward starting free trade negotiations with Taiwan, an initiative that would likely strain relations with China since it regards the island as part of its territory.

The administration could probably handle that concern if it is careful to avoid treating Taiwan as an independent country within the legal text of any agreement, said Derek Scissors, a China analyst with the American Enterprise Institute.

Others were more skeptical that full-fledged negotiations with Taiwan would actually get off the ground. “I think it presents so many challenges,” Cutler said. But the administration could still find ways to boost two-way trade short of a comprehensive agreement, she said.

India

The United States’ rising trade deficit with India could grab Trump’s attention in 2020 after the two countries failed to reach agreement last year on a number of bilateral irritants. Trump has already kicked India out of the duty-free Generalized System of Preferences program, but could turn up the heat further, Reinsch said.

Brazil

A recent joint statement from the U.S.-Brazil CEO Forum mentioned both countries’ interest in “negotiating a free trade agreement in the future.” That’s complicated by Brazil’s membership in the Mercosur trade bloc with Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. But Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro expressed a desire for closer trade ties when they met in both Washington and Osaka, Japan, last year.

Switzerland

The politically neutral country in the center of Europe is pushing for a free trade agreement with the United States. That presents a dilemma for U.S. negotiators, who could get more economic gains from an investment of their limited time and resources by negotiating with a bigger or less open economy. Lighthizer could have the chance to discuss the issue with his Swiss counterpart in late January, when he travels to Davos for the annual World Economic Forum.

Africa

Two years ago, Lighthizer said he was interested in negotiating a model trade agreement with a country in Africa that could be replicated with others across the continent. Since then, administration officials have talked about beginning negotiations with Kenya or Ethiopia, but it remains to be seen if any effort will get off the ground.

However, Lighthizer is moving to potentially strip trade benefits for South Africa under both the Generalized System of Preferences program and the African Growth and Opportunity Act. USTR will hold a hearing to examine that issue, as well as trade benefits for Azerbaijan, Ecuador, Georgia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Laos, on Jan. 30.

“I think it’s going a very busy year,” Cutler said.