After two days of chasing Edward Snowden, we finally have confirmation of where he is: in the transit zone at Sheremetyevo airport, in Moscow. "It is true that Edward Snowden is in Moscow, and it really came as a surprise to us," said Russian President Vladimir Putin. That last part, that it came as a surprise, is hardly believable, given the swarms of FSB agents at the airport and the fact that Russian police ringed the plane that was supposed to take Snowden to Cuba as it sat on the tarmac. Also not believable was the angry statement of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who accused of the U.S. of "conspiracy" and claimed that Snowden "did not cross the Russian border."



While this is technically correct—Snowden did not go through passport control—it is also a joke: The transit zone is sovereign Russian territory, and if the Russians wanted to take him out of the transit zone, they'd do it in a heartbeat. And, of course, they'd do so "within the confines of the law," a favorite phrase in a country where the law, famously, means absolutely nothing. (As I wrote in my farewell to Moscow, "in Russia, the absence of the rule of law is sublimated into the tyranny of the procedural guideline and the dictatorship of the technicality. Without the right notarized piece of paper, the saying goes 'you're a doodie.'")

The Americans, everyone from Kerry to Carney, have been flipping out about Snowden, railing at Moscow and Beijing to give him back. After Putin's confirmation, the White House barked at the Russians again. The Russians, it said, have "a clear legal basis" for turning over Snowden, though Putin said they had signed no pact (read: "the right notarized slip of paper") that would allow them to hand over Snowden. "He is a free person," Putin said.

Based on that last statement, that he's "a free man," I'm going to make a prediction here: Snowden isn't going to Ecuador. He's staying in Russia.

Why? Because that's what "free men" with troves of valuable data—just look at how hard the White House is fighting to get him back—and even more valuable revenge potential do when they take a strange detour to South America through Moscow and, mysteriously, get stuck.

John Kerry whined "reciprocity is important," citing the fact that the Americans had turned over seven wanted prisoners to Russia. But yes, reciprocity is important, and Russia doesn't much care about those seven nameless prisoners. It cares about a guy named Viktor Bout, whom the Americans nabbed in Thailand and refused to turn over to the Russians. The Russians were pretty mad about that one -- about as mad, you might say, as the Americans are about Snowden.