“Our early surplus projection for fiscal year 2020 should be treated with cautious optimism, because while there are positive early trends, they are just that – early,” Lembo said. “It should also be noted that Connecticut’s budget results are ultimately dependent upon the performance of the national and state economies. For now, economic indicators for the national and state economies are sending mixed messages, with some positive movement on income tax revenue and home price appreciation among lower-price tiers – but also some trends in the bond market that could be recession indicators."