The latest Canadian election (they keep having 'em, every year or two, as the minority Tory party tries to bolster its number in keeping with Prime Minister Harper's autocratic ruling style) is heading for an upset. For the first time, it looks like the pro-Net-Neutrality, copyfighting, broadband-for-all New Democratic Party might hold the balance of power.

The NDP has captured new voters from across the political spectrum in a remarkably eclectic fashion. Looking at how 2008 voters have migrated, we see the Conservatives almost entirely intact whereas the NDP is now an amalgam of defected Conservative, Liberal, and Green supporters. In particular, the NDP surge has been driven by a wholesale transfer of Bloc Quebecois supporters in Quebec. If the NDP is the clear winner to date in Campaign 41 (and they have literally doubled their support which may be unprecedented) the hapless Bloc Quebecois are the flip side of this success. Their hegemony of Quebec federal politics has collapsed and they are now plumbing historical depths having sunk below 25 points. Their support is also concentrated among younger voters who may be less likely to vote. The NDP is doing best with women (who they now lead nationally and with voters under the age of 45). They are doing well in virtually all regions of the country and now have a constituency which most resembles the centre of Canada demographically and geographically.