BELFAST — You wouldn't know it from the political noise but Northern Ireland's unionists are not all marching to the Democratic Unionist Party beat.

With 10 of Northern Ireland's most conservative MPs propping up Theresa May's government in Westminster, more moderate members of the pro-United Kingdom community rarely get a look in. The DUP, led by Arlene Foster, has fiercely defended its red line in Brexit negotiations — that Northern Ireland must not be treated differently to the rest of the U.K.

Many Northern Irish business leaders who backed Remain in the 2016 EU referendum are horrified that May's plan to avoid the U.K. crashing out of the European Union with no deal is being put at risk by the DUP joining the sizable opposition to it. Others fear the consequences for a marginalized Northern Ireland within an isolated United Kingdom. There's even the odd whisper of the previously unthinkable — might the tide of popular opinion turn toward reunification with the Republic of Ireland?

As the DUP meets for its annual conference in Belfast, others in the unionist community feel marginalized by the party's role in Westminster politics.

"There is a large number of unionists, particularly Ulster unionists, sort of middle-ground people, who wanted to remain, and they are finding themselves being boxed into being led by a minority who have this deal in Westminster," said Danny Kinahan, who was a Ulster Unionist Party MP in Westminster until he lost his seat to the DUP in the U.K.'s 2017 election.

“I suspect the DUP are now in a minority in Northern Ireland, so when they speak for the people of Northern Ireland that is I’m afraid a travesty" — David Gavaghan, business leader

Although his party campaigned for Remain, it accepts the result of the referendum and, like the DUP, opposes the backstop plan. But Kinahan thinks the way the DUP holds the whip hand so "bluntly and heavily" in Westminster is destroying good relationships between politicians and Northern Ireland.

Business groups are increasingly vocal in their opposition to the DUP's hard-line approach. A number of Northern Irish business leaders met May in Downing Street on Thursday night, just hours after her draft deal was agreed in principle.

“I suspect the DUP are now in a minority in Northern Ireland, so when they speak for the people of Northern Ireland that is I’m afraid a travesty," said David Gavaghan, the founder of Aurora Prime Real Estate and a former chairman of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in Northern Ireland.

"They speak for their party and they speak for their views, but they don’t speak for the people of Northern Ireland, and I think from a business point of view, what we see ... is something on the table which gives some certainty and puts Northern Ireland in a fairly good place, which is where we need to be."

In October, the CBI claimed 90 percent of its members believe May's agreement with Brussels over the Irish border is better than leaving the EU with no deal at all.

The DUP, however, challenges the claim of a binary choice between May’s deal and no deal, arguing the prime minister should go back to Brussels and renegotiate. They also dispute the economics, claiming potential regulatory barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland would be problematic.

The party’s Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson said: "Over time Northern Ireland’s rules and regulations will diverge away from those in our biggest market. We want to see a Withdrawal Agreement which respects the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom. Work should start on it now.”

Silent middle

Unfortunately for Kinahan of the UUP, many liberal unionists do not have a good track record of turning out to vote.

Peter Shirlow, an academic at the University of Liverpool who has studied Northern Irish elections, points to two distinct unionist communities: those who vote and the 45 percent who don't — the latter, he says, are the most liberal in Northern Ireland.

But there are other signs of pragmatism among the wider Northern Irish population. The Irish government saw a 20 percent increase in applications for Irish passports from Northern Ireland last year — a total of 82, 274 applications, according to official figures. That is more than double the number made in 2012.

"When even unionists start applying for Irish passports, is it any wonder nationalists and republicans are encouraged to believe attitudes are changing?" — Ed Curran, commentator

In September, a mining, sand and aggregates equipment manufacturer, C&D, which employs 500 people in Cookstown, County Tyrone, asked eligible staff to apply for Irish passports as part of its Brexit contingency planning to ensure they could work and travel across the border if needed.

Most commentators and politicians believe this increase is purely practical rather than a sign of a political swing toward republicanism. DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr. even encouraged constituents to apply for Irish passports following the referendum vote.

But others think the number of Irish passport holders in Northern Ireland could eventually form part of the argument for a fresh push for a poll on whether Northern Ireland should remain in the United Kingdom.

Ed Curran, a Belfast Telegraph commentator, wrote in August: "When even unionists start applying for Irish passports, is it any wonder nationalists and republicans are encouraged to believe attitudes are changing."

More stark for Kinahan have been comments from pro-unionists who he said told him they are "so fed up" with the political situation and Brexit they think they might be better off in some form of united Ireland — something he said "really hurt."

There is no decisive electoral evidence the scales have tipped in that direction yet, and Shirlow says his surveys suggest nobody in either camp has changed sides, but the very fact that such questions are being asked, many in the country say, is indicative of the political earthquake Brexit has unleashed in Northern Ireland.

DUP gamble

The DUP is yet to find out if its political calculation to prop up May's government will pay off — and there is little sign of it wavering. In 2017, the party saw its vote share jump 10 percent and this hasn't been tested since the confidence-and-supply agreement with May came into force.

Some of its own supporters are unconvinced by the party leadership's strategy. Geoffrey McKillop, who owns the Hip Chip and other businesses in the DUP heartland of Bushmills, thinks his party is being very "short-sighted" in opposing the deal.

He voted Brexit and backs the DUP, yet supports May, who he thinks has been in a really difficult situation and has done a "great job."

"I think it is very good, it puts Northern Ireland in a unique position within Europe in general, the fact we can trade on both sides. That is why I don't understand why the DUP don't grasp it with both hands, because it will be good for Northern Ireland."

Despite being a DUP voter, he is skeptical about the threat to the union from the prime minister's Brexit plan.

"The Good Friday Agreement protects both sides — the nationalist and the protestant community in Northern Ireland — but it also protects the union in its own right. There was never any threat to that," he said.

Ben Lowry, the deputy editor of the unionist-leaning Newsletter, is less convinced by the "best of both worlds notion" of the backstop advocated by the business community.

Had unionists understood the extent to which London would not stand up to nationalist Ireland they would never have voted for Brexit, he said.

"Be it moderates or hard-liners, I don’t think they would ever had voted [for Brexit] if they understood it fully. I think it would have been like Gibraltar where 96 percent voted to remain."