The Canadian dollar is holding its own today, though at between 73.5 and almost 74 cents U.S. that’s not saying much.

It’s where it could be headed that will trouble Canadian snowbirds and buoy the hopes of exporters.

Several analysts have predicted ever-lower levels for the loonie going forward. But the latest from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce sees it tumbling to just 70 cents within the next few months.

In its new outlook, CIBC World Markets said it expects the loonie to sink to that level in the first quarter of next year before recovering.

“The loonie’s had a tough time navigating the storm this year,” the bank said in its report.

“It ranks among the worst performing major currencies against the greenback and the headwinds have yet to abate,” it added.

“The latest fall in oil prices coupled with a weak near-term economic outlook underscores our belief that near-term risks to the loonie remain skewed toward additional depreciation rather than a rebound.”

The loonie has been hit by lower oil prices and the diverging policies of the Federal Reserve, which is poised to hike interest rates, and the Bank of Canada, which is set to hold steady for months still.

And as The Globe and Mail’s Eric Reguly reports today, the chief of the International Energy Agency sees no rebound in crude, and, possibly, a further dip.

“To make matters worse, the lagged effects of the price drop haven’t fully played out and many of the benefits from a weaker exchange rate have yet to show up in a sustainable way,” CIBC said.

“While the unemployment rate has reached 7.1 per cent again, there remains scope for the labour market to deteriorate further in the months ahead - especially in provinces levered to the oil sector.”