AUSTIN - Republicans are beginning to worry that a "blue wave" of Democratic voters angry with the Trump administration could crash into the 2018 election, even in the deep red state of Texas.

Gov. Greg Abbott's top campaign adviser and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick are both sounding the alarm: Texas Republicans would be remiss to ignore sweeping Democratic victories on Election Day in Virginia. On Friday, The Cook Political Report, an independent nonpartisan election newsletter, weighed in, declaring Republican Congressman John Culberson's Houston district a toss up.

Although some GOP leaders in Texas are warning that Republicans could feel the weight of a grass-roots surge by Democrats outraged by the Trump administration, many political analysts and operatives here say Republicans here have little to worry about.

"Even if the election becomes a tidal wave, Texas will remain solidly red," said Mark McKinnon, a former media adviser to former President George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, both Republicans.

But McKinnon thinks it's smart politics for Abbott and Patrick to warn of a wave. "It helps raise money. And if it doesn't happen, nothing wrong with running up the score," he said.

Virginia Democrats smoked Republicans for the state's highest offices on Nov. 7, winning races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general by more than 5 percentage points each. Democrats also gained 14 seats in its House of Delegates, which included replacing one of the state's staunch social conservatives with a transgender woman. After recounts conclude next week, Democrats could have wrested control of the chamber, which few thought possible before Election Day.

Much closer to Texas, a 26-year-old lesbian Democrat pulled off a special election surprise in Oklahoma, beating the Republican candidate for a key state Senate seat last week in a district Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential race by almost 40 points.

GOP adviser's memo

Consternation about the recent election results soon made its way into an internal memo from Abbott's top campaign adviser who warned the Republican governor's aides that the Virginia election should be a "wake-up call" to the Texas GOP, although Democrats haven't won statewide office since 1994.

"It would be easy for us to say Texas is not Virginia. It would be easy for us to say the Democrats in Texas aren't that well organized. However, that would be a huge mistake," adviser Dave Carney wrote in a memo obtained by the Houston Chronicle.

Culberson, a Republican whose wealthy west Harris County district went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, is in the cross hairs of Democrats, who see an opportunity to flip the long-held Republican district President George H.W. Bush once represented.

Seven eager Democrats have entered the race and have raised about $1.9 million among them to vie for it, although one of them will first have to emerge from the primary race before they can set their sights on the general election. With nonprofit executive Alex Triantaphyllis leading in fundraising, the high-powered field includes a lawyer, a Democratic activist, an MD Anderson research doctor, an assistant city attorney, an educator and a UT health sciences administrator.

"Almost every election that is not a presidential cycle is bad for the party in power," said McKinnon, who was chief media advisor to five successful presidential primary and general election campaigns. "So any district that is even marginally close, could be in play including, and especially Culberson's."

Texas Democrats have yet to field viable candidates against the state's top officials. While Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso is pushing to oust Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz at the top of the ticket, all of Abbott's Democratic challengers to date are little-known. A Democrat who ran and lost in a bid for comptroller in 2014 is running against Patrick for lieutenant governor, and an Austin lawyer with no name recognition announced last week that he would run against Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Candidates have until Dec. 11 to file to run for office, giving Democrats three weeks to find a credible challenger to run against Abbott, who demolished state Sen. Wendy Davis by 19 points in the 2014 gubernatorial election.

Virginia is different

Pointing to the major Democratic wins in Virginia earlier this month, Patrick told party members in Waco on Thursday that they have a challenging election year ahead and the GOP should take nothing for granted. The Houston tea party favorite is considered a shoo-in for re-election.

"Recently in Virginia, Republicans turned out in record numbers, but it made no difference. A blue wave prevailed," Patrick said, according to the Waco Tribune-Herald. The paper said Patrick went on to ask Republicans to each get at least 10 voters to the polls, and said Democrats are "howling" about Trump and are now "coming after us."

Texas' politics are different from Virginia's, said Victoria DeFrancesco Soto, a politics professor who studies political behavior and teaches at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. Virginia is a swing state and moderate, far from Texas as a Republican stronghold with several conservatives at the helm.

Patrick's not actually worried, she added. It's a strategy.

"I would tell Dan Patrick to say the same thing," she said. "It's number one in politics: always run scared and never feel safe, even if you're Dan Patrick. That's textbook. I wouldn't expect him to say anything else."

While Texas remained solidly Republican in the 2016 election, several areas showed signs the state could one day turn purple: Democrats had their best showing here in 20 years when Trump won the state by a single digit of 9 points while urban enclaves like Houston and Dallas remained blue.

Hard work ahead for Dems

Voters under 45 years old, women and people of color are turning against the Republican Party, said John Weaver, who has consulted for candidates on both sides of the aisle, including George H.W. Bush and most recently former presidential contender Ohio Gov. John Kasich. "It's a simple math equation. There's only so much you can stretch out a party based on old white guys. That unwillingness to change your tone and have policies that are more inclusive will eventually catch up with Republicans here in Texas, whether that is in '18, or '20 or '22, I don't know. But it's coming."

Case in point: Instead of focusing on education, health care and infrastructure, leaders in Texas and Washington are "playing small ball by doing bathroom bills and all kinds of crap like that, and I think people are getting fed up with it," he said, referencing a Texas bill that would have required transgender people to use the bathroom of their birth gender.

Glenn Smith, one of the key operatives who helped deliver the late Democratic Gov. Ann Richards to the governor's mansion, sees hope for Democrats after watching the "blue wave" of voters in the Virginia elections but adds it will take a lot of work.

If Texas Democrats want to make gains like Virginia did, the party needs to be well-funded and organized, he said. The best opportunities for Democrats are in the big counties, like Harris and Dallas, he said, which Clinton won in 2016 by 12 points and 26 points, respectively. Democrats could make bigger gains in Tarrant County, which Trump won by 8 points, and needs to organize better in Bexar County, which Clinton won by 14 points, he added. Clinton won Travis County by 38 points.

"I don't like saying, 'Yeah, a blue wave's coming, everybody just surf it,' because that's not what you get to do. You've got to make the waves," Smith said.