Ratings agency says economy has started to slow and is expected to weaken considerably throughout the year

Britain’s economy will lose momentum this year amid squeezed living standards and uncertainty over Brexit and the inconclusive election result, leading ratings agencies have predicted.

Moody’s said the qualms about talks in Brussels and the minority government have increased the UK’s political and financial risks.



Analysts at the ratings agency said the UK economy has started to slow and they expect it to weaken considerably throughout the rest of the year, adding that it was unclear if the government could deliver a “reasonably good” Brexit deal.



Moody’s said the government appeared to be pursuing objectives pointing towards a hard exit and said growth prospects over the medium term could be “materially weaker” if the UK fails to sign a trade deal allowing access to the single market.



Kathrin Muehlbronner, a senior vice president at Moody’s, said: “The likelihood of an abrupt – and damaging exit – with no agreement and reversion to [World Trade Organization] trading rules has increased compared to our expectation after the referendum, with the government so far pursuing objectives that imply a hard exit.”

Weaker public finances could lead to a “further delay in reversing the rising tend of public debt”, the agency warned in a report. However, it said the Bank of England’s credibility should ensure financial stability, with exchange rate flexibility giving support for exports.

Another ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, also predicted a fall in the UK’s growth rate – from 1.8% in 2016 to 1.4% in 2017 and 0.8% in 2018 – adding that the outlook might be even worse if the Brexit talks between Britain and the EU go badly.



Despite speculation of an increase in interest rates from the Bank of England next month, S&P said the weakness of the economy would result in borrowing costs being left on hold at 0.25% for another two years.

Bank of England's Broadbent warns of Brexit trade threat, but avoids rate hints - live Read more

S&P’s senior economist, Boris Glass, said: “Given demand weakness, the temporary nature of imported inflation, moderate domestic wage pressures, and Brexit uncertainties, we expect the Bank of England’s current ultra-accommodative stance to continue over the medium term and expect a first rate hike to occur only in mid-2019.”

S&P said the better-than-predicted performance of the economy in 2016 had been the result of “extraordinarily robust consumer spending” but added that the pressure on households from prices rising more rapidly than wages was likely to persist for the rest of 2017 and into 2018.

Figures due out on Wednesday will show whether the lowest unemployment since the 1970s has started to have an upward effect on earnings, which are currently growing by just over 2% a year. Inflation as measured by the consumer prices index is running at 2.9%, while the retail prices index is 3.7%.

The depreciation of the pound would make UK exports more competitive but would only add between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points to growth from 2017 to 2020. S&P said a study of the data showed that some UK exporters had taken advantage of the fall in sterling to raise their prices rather than to break into new markets.

The agency said that while the price increases were to some extent a matter of choice, they were likely to have been necessary for firms that relied on imports which had become more expensive as a result of the falling exchange rate. With firms making Brexit contingency plans, investment was being shelved rather than given the go-ahead.

“Our forecasts for slower growth are subject to considerable downside risks, stemming mainly from Brexit uncertainties,” Glass said. “For example, the staging of the negotiations, with the ‘divorce’ settlement being negotiated before any future relationship with the EU is addressed, means that should the separation negotiations stall, there would be less time left for negotiating the future trade relationship, risking a cliff edge.

“In general, should negotiations stall for an extended period, this could translate into a further significant depreciation of sterling and a consequent rise in inflation.”

Ben Broadbent, one of the Bank of England’s deputy governors, said a sharp drop in UK trade with the EU after Brexit would be bad for the economy.

In a speech in Aberdeen that focused on the benefits of international trade, Broadbent said: “Put simply, a significant curtailment of trade with Europe would force the UK to shift away from producing things it’s been relatively good at, and therefore export to the EU, and towards the things it currently imports and is relatively less good at.”

A number of MPC members – including the governor, Mark Carney, and the Bank’s chief economist, Andy Haldane – have given their views on the outlook for borrowing costs in recent months.

Broadbent voted for official interest rates to remain on hold at the MPC’s last meeting in June and his failure to mention monetary policy was seen by the City as a sign that he will vote the same way again in August. The pound fell slightly after Broadbent’s speech and closed in London at $1.2850.