he Centre's fight against Maoist militants has started paying dividends, with a substantial decline in ultra-left violence in the last two-three years, particularly in states such as West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh.

According to figures provided by the Left Wing Extremism (LWE) Division of the Ministry of Home Affairs, incidents related to Maoist violence has come down to almost half in the last five years. It was 2,258 in 2009, in which 908 persons (including security forces) were killed. However, the number of incidents came down to 1,136 in 2013, in which 397 people were killed. This year, 188 people have lost their lives in Maoist related violence until 11 July, according to information provided by Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju, in the Rajya Sabha.

West Bengal is a success story. It witnessed just one Maoist incident in 2013, without any casualties, against 255 incidents in 2009, in which 158 people were killed. "This is a positive trend which indicates that the fight against LWE is paying off," said D. Suba Chandra, director of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). "But we will have to wait for some more time to see if this trend is sustained."

A senior police officer involved in anti-Naxal operations in Jharkhand, told The Sunday Guardian that there has been a substantial decline in Maoist activities. "Though there is still a long way to go, the recent trends are quite encouraging. Unlike earlier years, the morale of the security forces is quite high. However, we know that the Maoists are down but not out," he added.

Bolstered by this partial success, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh recently made it clear that there was no question of any talks with the Maoists and that the government would "take a balanced approach and forces will give a befitting reply if they launch attacks".

Experts believe that there are three reasons for the decline: massive and sustained security operations, growing disenchantment with the Maoist ideology and development work in Maoist infested areas. "The new officers in the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), which is leading the battle against the Maoists, are mentally very strong and learn fast," said the official.

"Maoists' support among people is also waning. So far they thrived on anti-state sentiments. But now there is a feeling that the Maoists are not the alternative. People may be anti-government, but not pro-Maoists. Thus the Maoists are losing local support," said Pradeep Balmuchu, a Rajya Sabha MP, who belongs to Ghatshila, a Maoist infested area in Jharkhand.

"Holding panchayat elections too has empowered the people at the grassroots. Special funds for the development of Maoist infested areas are reaching the people, who can see the change," he said. Under the Saranda Action Plan, the government has been able to start development work in the Saranda forest on the boarders of West Bengal, Orissa and Jharkhand, with an investment of Rs 429 crore.

Factionalism is also a major reason behind the weakening of the Maoist movement. The commitment level of the cadre is not high, which has led to the creation of many splinter groups, such as the People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI), Jharkhand Prastuti Committee and Jharkhand Liberation Tigers.

However, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Bihar continue to be a challenge for the Centre. "There is a need to maintain consistency as far as operations and development works are concerned. The government has to occupy the space which was taken over by the Maoists over the years. Also the Centre should ensure that the states do not divert the funds meant for tackling Maoists to other works, which is the case generally," said Chandra.