“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” – Upton Sinclair

Upton Sinclair was describing willful ignorance based upon who butters your bread. The rampant corruption of our society, as power has been consolidated into fewer and fewer hands, has resulted in our political, financial, cultural and economic systems being captured by a billionaire class who use their wealth to dictate the path we are forced to follow – or lose everything.

The sociopath class include the Silicon Valley social media titans, the billionaires running the six mainstream media companies, the rogue billionaires like Soros and Bloomberg who fund chaos and foment insurrection, the Deep State surveillance agency operatives like Clapper, Brennan, Comey and Mueller doing the bidding of the oligarchy, Wall Street criminals like Dimon, Paulson, and Blankfein doing god’s work, and last but certainly not least – Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and slimy Kashkari priming the pump for the never ending systematic pillaging of the nation’s wealth.

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The expression “elephant in the room“…

“…an important or enormous topic, question, or controversial issue that is obvious or that everyone knows about but no one mentions or wants to discuss because it makes at least some of them uncomfortable or is personally, socially, or politically embarrassing, controversial, inflammatory, or dangerous. (source)

A wordy definition, yes; but it is applicable to our topic of Fractional-Reserve Banking. After reading the rest of this article, you should be able to see just how important and enormous Fractional-Reserve Banking is; as well as how dangerous.

Lets’s start with some history.

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Last week was mostly a downtrend week from Monday-Thursday with lower highs and lower lows. The bears needed to close Friday at the lows or near the lows in order to retain momentum heading into this week. But Friday morning, the lower lows opportunity was immediately squashed with a V-shape reversal back into the 3337, and then the rest of the day was spent grinding higher because short-term bears were trapped, so the opposing side was running into the 3268/3285 next key levels.

The main takeaway heading into this week is whether 3330-3350 key resistance region on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) can formulate the next daily lower highs, or whether the temporary bottom from last week is turning into more of a concrete bottom for the bigger picture. This is the neutral ground territory given the key battleground being established with the current backtest into the 3330s trending daily 20EMA resistance alongside 38.2% fib retracement and the prior (SHTF) shit hits the fan level of 3350.

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RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

Uncertainty and cycle events will likely lead to continued Gold and Silver price appreciation until the cycle events end (likely in 2024 or 2025).

The gold/silver ratio chart shows very clear levels of support and resistance. With the next targets $2,000-$2,250, $3,200 then $5,500+.

Extended basing may continue for the next 2 to 4+ months.

I have received many comments and questions related to our Gold and Precious Metals predictions originating from research posts we have made recently. Today’s research article is Part 1 of a two-part series, which will revisit some of our past forecasts and showcase what my research team and I believe will be the most likely outcome for Gold as we push through the end of 2020 and into early 2021.

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Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.

SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress until mid to late-October.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

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“We’re not giving lifetime appointments to this President, on the way out the door, to change the Supreme Court, for the next 25 or 30 years.”

That was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2016, defending his controversial decision to block President Obama’s appointee to the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland.

The veteran Republican lawmaker enraged Democrats by refusing to hold a Senate confirmation hearing on Garland’s appropriateness for the position. Under the US Constitution, the Senate Judiciary Committee conducts hearings examining the background of the nominee and questioning him/ her about their views on a variety of cases and their judicial philosophy.

Yet when faced with a vacancy on the court after the recent death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, McConnell vowed to replace her in a Senate vote, before the Nov. 3 election. Like in 2016, a Supreme Court judge had died just before the President’s four-year term had ended (actually six weeks prior this year, vs 8 months in 2016).

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Many AIB RTX 3080 Cards are tending to fail when running under load towards 2000mhz resulting in screen artifacts to game players being kicked to their desktops and even outright system crashes.

Igor Labs first identified the probable cause being AIB's use of cheap capacitor arrays to cut costs thus causing an issue in terms of noise in the power delivery system to the GPU's under boost load at above 1900mhz, the higher the boost the greater the risk of issues i.e. greater instability is when cards boost towards and over 2000mhz, well beyond Nvidia's FE nominal boost clock is at 1710mhz FE which in practice can boost to about 1900mhz in some games, though is less's than that which ABI's boost to hence the crashes being experienced.

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Gold, silver and the HUI Gold Bugs index are viewed here by their big picture monthly charts. In NFTRH we use mainly daily and weekly charts of these along with individual miners to better gauge the shorter-term pictures, which will advise on the end of the correction better than these more cumbersome monthlies that are great for keeping perspective amid the shorter-term noise.

Our target for gold was 1940, established in April off a daily chart pattern. That target was blown through and as the monthly chart shows, a big picture Cup was formed as it made a higher high right around the time that the Buffett hype signaled the oncoming correction as we noted on August 17th:

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In addition to facing an acute COVID-19 crisis, Argentina’s deadbeat economy is collapsing, and, as usual, the inflation noose is around Argentines’ necks. Argentina’s official inflation rate for August 2020 is 40.70 percent per year. And, for once, Argentina’s official rate is fairly close to the rate that I calculate each day using high-frequency data and purchasing-power-parity theory, a methodology that has long proved its worth when compared with official statistics. Today, I measure Argentina’s annual inflation rate at 37 percent, but probably not for long — the noose is generally followed by the trapdoor.

As Milton Friedman put it in his 1987 New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics entry “Quantity Theory of Money” (QTM), “The conclusion (of the QTM) is that substantial changes in prices or nominal income are almost always the result of changes in the nominal supply of money.” The income form of the QTM states that: MV=Py, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money, P is the price level, and y is real GDP (national income).

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The gold miners’ stocks have just been hammered, plunging to new correction lows. That shattered their indexes’ 50-day moving averages, pounding nails in the coffin of this sector’s recent high consolidation. This necessary correction probably isn’t over yet. It is still small and short compared to this bull market’s precedent, the gold stocks are nowhere near oversold, and they are heading into a seasonal-plunge month.

Seeing the gold stocks rolling over into a correction shouldn’t surprise anyone. They enjoyed a great run, as evident in their leading and dominant sector benchmark the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. From mid-March’s pandemic stock-panic lows to early August, GDX rocketed 134.1% higher in just 4.8 months! That powerful and fast upleg left gold stocks seriously overbought, necessitating a correction.

That healthy process to rebalance stretched technicals and greedy sentiment began right away. In the first four trading days after GDX peaked at $44.48 in early August, this ETF plunged 12.2%. The major gold stocks of GDX mirror and amplify gold, which overwhelmingly drives their earnings. So the gold-stock selling ceased with gold’s own sharp selloff. Gold had shot parabolic to extraordinarily-overbought levels.

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Precious metals markets got clobbered early this week as gold and silver broke down from their high-level consolidations.

Strength in the U.S. Dollar Index seemed to be the catalyst that got the selling going. Once key technical levels got breached, the selling intensified.

Gold prices fell below the $1,900 level on Wednesday. Meanwhile, silver plummeted below $24 an ounce and traded as low as $22 on Thursday before recouping some of those losses by the end of the trading day.

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RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

The Transportation Index, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.

Classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal “Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern” setting up.

We may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.

The Transportation Index, which typically leads the US stock market by 2 to 4+months, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months. Recently, though, the Transportation Index has rallied up to recent new all-time highs (over the past 9+ months) and has rotated lower – below resistance near 11,440 (the MAGENTA LINE on the first chart). Our researchers are warning us that any continued breakdown below this level could prompt a bigger downside market move.

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China has been buying a lot of U.S. crude oil lately, perhaps in a belated attempt to fulfill some of the energy import quotas agreed with Washington last year or perhaps in a bid to take advantage of supercheap U.S. crude. But the buying spree is about to end.

This month alone, China could import between 867,000 bpd, according to Reuters' Refinitiv data, and 900,000 bpd, according to oilfield services company Canary. And then the flow of U.S. oil into China will decline, and it will decline sharply, Reuters' Clyde Russell wrote this week. The reason as simple as it is worrying. The U.S. crude that has been going into China since July—and reaching major records in terms of volume, with the July daily average alone up 139 percent on the year—was bought much earlier, in April, May, and June. This was oil bought when West Texas Intermediate was trading at multi-year lows. By June it had recovered to about $40, Russell notes, so purchases since then have been more modest.

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Typically exhibiting a 100 to 110 trading day cycle from low to low, the S&P 500's cycle low on March 23 was actually 117 days after the prior cycle bottom in October 2019.

The 117-day cycle that hit its low on March 23 initiated a new cycle that -- owing to massive Federal Reserve liquidity injection -- climbed relentlessly for 114 days into the September 2 all-time high at 3588.11.

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RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

Gold rebounded quickly and broke to higher prices after the COVID deep selling.

Our Fibonacci support levels for Gold are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790.

More downside pressure on price is possible, but if support is maintained at $1,885 then we could see a big upside recovery trend take Gold to $2,250.

Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24. First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020. Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again – this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90.

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Britains incompetent government has once more lost control of the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic that is now at the very beginnings of a second wave that looks set to be about half as severe as that of March and Aprils first wave and as was the case before the Panic buying has once more already begun starting at major super markets such as Tesco and Morrisons who Friday announced restrictions on items purchased on many goods including hand sanitisers, toilet rolls, flour, pasts, baby wipes, antibacterial's and eggs which is likely to spread to many other supermarket goods as the number of local lockdown's multiple in the face of the exponential spread of the virus that has now passed above r 1.5. Though hopefully to nowhere near the extent of March panic that this video illustrates of just how bad things could get once more all courtesy of an incompetent government advised by moronic mad scientists who are more interested in feathering their nests then giving useful advice hence you cannot blame people for panic buying when faced with morons in charge!

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Mining production? No. China’s consumer demand? No. The main drivers of gold prices are, as I’ve repeated many times, the U.S. dollar and real interest rates. You don’t believe it? You don’t have to – just look at the charts below.The first one displays the greenback and the dollar-denominated price of gold. Because other series start much later, I used here the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index against major currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issuance. Although the correlation is not perfect, the inverse relationship is quite strong and bull and bear markets in gold coincide with the bear and bull trends in the U.S. dollar.

There is growing disquiet across the blogosphere surrounding the RTX 3080 AIB cards that goes beyond the frustration of lack of supply and this is because of countless reports that AIB card's are proving problematic for many users that whilst playing GPU intensive games result in issues such as artifacts on screen or that they end up being kicked back to their desktops which suggests an issue when the GPU's are under heavy load i.e. at high boost clock speeds and temperatures.

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Britains incompetent government has once more lost control of the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic that is now at the very beginnings of a second wave that looks set to be about half as severe as that of March and Aprils first wave in advance of which British Police have been steadily given new powers to accumulate arrest points towards criminalizing people who for instance don't wear masks or are found in groups of 6 or more whilst those who breach self isolation rules could be hit with fines of upto £10,000. Police forces increasingly putting high risk areas and groups of people under surveillance, which translates into ethnic and deprived areas receiving special attention, officers roaming the streets, shops and super markets looking for law breakers with even plans to deploy the army in support of the police towards enforcement of local lockdown's.

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The trading range on the HUI and other PM stock indexes continues its job of confusing both the bulls and bears alike. I’ve always said that trading an impulse move is much easier than trading during a consolidation phase. During a strong impulse move up it is easy to see the price action making higher highs and higher lows. Trading during a consolation phase is usually completely different.

Below is the daily chart we’ve been following for the HUI which shows the morphing triangle that has been in play since the first of August. Last week the price action made a feeble attempt to breakout above the top rail which was quickly negated when the HUI traded back inside of the triangle. Today the price action gapped below the 50 day sma and found support on the bottom rail which completed the 7th reversal point.

I added a parallel blue trendline taken from the top rail of the blue triangle if that pattern morphs into a bigger consolation pattern that could either be a bull flag or a bullish falling wedge depending where the last reversal points comes into play. I’ve also said this many times as well in the past that the 4th or last reversal point in a consolation pattern is always the hardest to spot in real time. They don’t become visible until the price action can rally far enough above the last reversal point that it finally shows itself. Whatever the consolation pattern ends up being it should still be looked at as a halfway pattern to the upside as shown by the green arrows.

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