The battleground for Tamil Nadu 2019, in the absence of leaders like M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa, is bound to throw up several surprises. Smaller parties, most of them caste-based, have been accommodated in either the DMK-led or the AIADMK led-alliance.

This is likely to be a first in a Lok Sabha election. In 2014, the BJP was in neither of the state party fronts. Several parties which joined the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance that year have now aligned with either the AIADMK-led or the DMK-led fronts for the 2019 elections.

These are not the final lists.

For a party that went alone in all 39 seats in 2014, and won 37 despite the ‘Modi wave’, the AIADMK’s bid to form a ‘grand alliance’ betrays the indispensability of Jayalalithaa.

The AIADMK alliance comprises:

The BJP, which has settled for five seats.

The PMK, which will contest seven seats plus one Rajya Sabha seat. Founded by S. Ramadoss, the PMK is a Vanniyar based party – a dominant most backward caste in the state.

A.C. Shanmugam’s Puthiya Neethi Katchi, which represents the Mudaliars. There is one seat here which is yet to be finalised.

Puthiya Thamizhagam party, contesting one seat. The party represents Thevendra Kula Vellalars (a sect of Dalits), and the election result could well decide the fate of Puthiya Thamizhagam’s campaign to shed the Dalit tag and demand exclusion from the Scheduled Caste list.

Actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK. These arrangement is yet to be finalised.

The DMK front comprises:

The Congress Party, which will be contesting ten seats.

Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) – a Dalit party that opposes caste hegemonies in Tamil Nadu – contesting two seats.

CPI and CPM contesting two seats each.

MDMK – a splinter group of the DMK, founded by Vaiko – has been allotted one Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seat.

Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), founded in 2011 by T.R. Pachumuthu, the founder of SRM Institute of Science and Technology (also known as ‘Pariventhar’). Not a formidable presence anywhere in the state, but is understood to have money power.

Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) – contesting one seat. The KMDK was founded by Kongu Eswaran in 2013. It is concentrated in western Tamil Nadu, where the dominant caste is Gounders and is a breakaway from Kongunadu Munnetra Kazhagam. Both KMDK and IJK were considered close to the BJP so their crossover might come as a shock for the national ruling party.

This is the first time that these smaller, caste-based parties have figured in major alliances for Lok Sabha elections. In two previous assembly elections – 2001 and 2011 – Karunanidhi did ally with them, in a bid to counter the anti-incumbency wave. On both occasions, the alliance failed to make an impact.

“Things are not the same today,” says Kongu Eshwaran of the KMDK, the Gounder party. “It is not just about the absence of leaders like Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa – although yes, that is a factor.” He claims his party could have helped the DMK win the 2016 assembly elections: “We contested in 72 constituencies, and in most, the difference between the AIADMK and the DMK was less than the votes we had polled.”

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Caste-parties: Ready to consolidate or clash?

Rejecting the idea that the Gounders were always supportive of the AIADMK, Eshwaran says the ‘bubble broke even when Jayalalithaa was alive in 2016 assembly elections.’

The DMK has no major presence in the Western belt, which is heavily populated by Gounders, so it was a smart move joining hands with the KMDK. But the front also has to accommodate the Dalit party, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), that has been consistently fighting against caste hegemonies in the state.

D. Ravikumar, general secretary of the VCK, thinks mainstreaming these parties will benefit the political system in the long run. “They will have to change their narratives,” he said. “They can no longer make insinuating statements based on ‘caste glory’. They will have to give up on that to be included and accepted in the democratic process.”

While the absence of Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa are indeed a factor, professor Ramu Manivannan, head of the Political Science Department in the University of Madras, says other factors have also been crucial. “Since the 1990s, the AIADMK and the DMK have lost influence in several pockets in the State – a vacuum filled by the emergence of PMK and Dalit parties,” he said. “It required a certain time and circumstance for these parties to gain the visibility that they have gained now. But the process has been happening for over two decades.”

National parties have to make room

Manivannan called it an ‘error’ for the DMK to hand over ten seats – a huge concession – to the Congress. It will now find it difficult to accommodate smaller parties. “But the party is still trying,” he said. “And this will probably result in the DMK contesting in fewer seats than it did in previous elections.”

In contrast, the BJP settling five seats in the AIADMK alliance will help “accommodate smaller parties without much friction.” The AIADMK has granted the PMK’s demand of seven seats, for instance, and it remains well-placed to handle the demands of Vijayakanth’s DMDK.

But Eswaran says the ‘old arithmetic’ will no longer work. “Things have changed in the last couple of years. Also, T.T.V. Dinakaran will be an important factor in this election. He will end up splitting the AIADMK votes.”

Chief minister Edappadi Palanisamy may be more interested in keeping the government going till the next assembly elections. Coming after Stalin’s take-over as the DMK’s president, the election is crucial for the party in more ways than one. The change in equations has visibly empowered the smaller players. Whether it will augur well the state’s politics remains to be seen.

Kavitha Muralidharan is an independent journalist.