As Iowa caucuses near, Pete Buttigieg packs his campaign schedule in the state

CEDAR FALLS, Ia. — Pete Buttigieg was nearly at the end of his speech when he told the Iowa crowd that they have a “thumb on the scale” in nominating the next president. It’s a go-to line for Buttigieg that often elicits chuckles from the audience.

But during this speech at the University of Northern Iowa campus, Buttigieg hinted at how much he is really depending on them.

“Iowa has a pretty great track record of surprising people,” Buttigieg told the crowd on Wednesday. “And making possible what was thought impossible.”

As the clock winds down to the Iowa caucuses, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor is traversing Iowa in the hopes that a strong finish here could propel his presidential candidacy into other early voting states and ultimately, the Democratic nomination.

Buttigieg's Iowa schedule has become packed. He held nine public events around central and northern Iowa over two days beginning Wednesday, after he appeared at the Democratic debate in Iowa. He accumulated at least 575 miles on the road between Sunday and Thursday, with more campaigning planned for the weekend and early next week in the state.

“We’re doing the work,” Buttigieg told the Des Moines Register. “We’ve demonstrated that we’re in the hunt … now we’ve got to get out there, hustle, make sure that our closing argument is in front of caucusgoers and reinforce the ground organization.”

Among the top-tier candidates, Buttigieg may have the most riding on a top finish in Iowa. He has invested heavily in the state, with more than 30 offices and about 170 staff on the ground as of mid-January, according to the campaign.

If that doesn’t translate into some type of win on caucus night, it will get increasingly difficult for the former mayor to make a pitch that he's best suited to take on President Donald Trump in a general election.

Buttigieg won’t admit all that, declining to weigh in on what's at stake for him on Feb. 3. But he acknowledges what Iowa signifies for a campaign that started with a handful of staffers and now has more than 500 nationwide.

“It’s certainty the best way I can show versus tell, that we’re able to win,” Buttigieg said of Iowa. “As the first opportunity on the calendar to really demonstrate that, I think that makes Iowa particularly important for us.”

Organizational strength, endorsements

Buttigieg had seen a steady rise in popularity in Iowa over several months, but that took a political hit recently when a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed he had dropped 9 percentage points since placing at the top of the pack in November.

John Hale pondered those latest poll results as he helped put away chairs after a Buttigieg town hall in January in Des Moines. Hale, a longtime health care activist, is a vocal supporter of Buttigieg and has organized several events for him.

Hale noted that the other top polling candidates in the Iowa Poll — U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, as well as former Vice President Joe Biden — were all within the margin of error, reflecting a tight four-way race.

Hale said the polling slip wasn’t surprising. In the months since November, Buttigieg's challengers have increasingly criticized his lack of experience in higher elected office and his high-dollar fundraisers. Buttigieg has countered that being a Midwestern mayor brings fresh perspective to the race. He's also defended his fundraising, noting that Trump will raise large sums of money for the 2020 race.

“That’s what happens when you’re a front-runner,” Hale said of Buttigieg. “Everybody’s taking shots at you. They’re all focused on you, and trying to put you in whatever negative light they can. So I feel good about where Pete’s at.”

Buttigieg told the Register he's trying to focus on his ground game in Iowa, not the horse race narrative. His campaign has held dozens of events around the state this month to prepare staff and volunteers for caucus night. On Thursday, as Buttigieg addressed more than 350 people at a town hall in Sioux City, his campaign was simultaneously leading a precinct leadership training for more than 250 people in Des Moines.

The campaign has also announced a digital advertising program promoting user-generated content from Iowans on social media, a continuation of the campaign's strategy to do "relational" outreach that involves Iowans making direct pitches to their personal networks of family and friends.

It's the kind of organizing that can make the difference if caucusgoers make a second choice on their preferred candidate for president. Buttigieg still has a wide footprint of support in Iowa, with 60% saying they are considering him in some capacity. That's the most of any Democrat in the race, though Warren is close behind.

In recent days, Buttigieg has also been endorsed by U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack and Waterloo Mayor Quentin Hart, giving the campaign a boost.

“I think we can expect a lot of ups and downs, especially just the way that this race has shaped up ... ” he said of polling. “My focus is just making sure we continue doing the things that have built us up to this point, that carried us past most of our competitors — by some measures all of them — and recognizing that so much can happen, even in two and a half weeks.”

Town halls filled with politically varied crowds

Steve Heldt stood by a wall inside the VFW hall in Emmetsburg on Thursday, waiting for Buttigieg to take the stage for his second of five town halls that day.

The self-identified independent wore a Buttigieg button on his plaid T-shirt. The button was Andy Warhol-inspired, with images of Buttigieg in different colors.

The 63-year-old said he voted for Trump in 2016, and he’s ready to consider someone else.

“He tweets too much, he’s alienated all of our allies overseas and he bullies opponents,” Heldt said of the president.

Heldt said Buttigieg’s demeanor and young age — he turns 38 on Sunday — appeals to him. Heldt thinks others could be drawn to Buttigieg's policies, which he believes are more realistic.

“I think that middle of the road will serve him well,” Heldt said of Buttigieg. “… if you get too far to the left or the right, you lose the core, which is those down the middle that realize compromising is necessary in order to get consensus.”

Jill Dietz, a 63-year-old retired high school teacher, saw Buttigieg in Winterset on Monday. She decided to caucus for Buttigieg during her Christmas Eve church service. She had been torn between Buttigieg and Biden, but now she feels at peace. She's begun volunteering for the campaign, and brought a Republican friend to the event.

"I think we just have to give it everything we can for him and just see," she said of Buttigieg. "Stranger things have happened."

In Newton on Wednesday, Teresa Alcorta-Sink waited in line to shake Buttigieg's hand after his town hall. She likes his military service background, and she thinks her Republican husband could be persuaded to vote for a Democrat.

"I'm looking for someone who can appeal across the board," the 49-year-old said.

Buttigieg has embraced this interest from the full scope of the electorate, often telling audiences he’s trying to bring in “future former Republicans.” His Thursday schedule had stops in multiple conservative counties that voted for Trump in 2016 by wide margins, and he is scheduled to participate in a Fox News town hall in Des Moines on Jan. 26. The campaign estimates several hundred turned out at various events.

Around northern Iowa on Thursday, several people who identified themselves as Republicans asked Buttigieg questions on issues like Social Security and wages.

“We don't have to water down our values one bit, to reach a voter who's worried about those kinds of questions and concerns,” Buttigieg told reporters when asked about conservative voters. “As a matter of fact, I believe we've had the better answers for those voters all along."

Whether that will make a difference on Caucus Day is unclear. Heldt, the independent, will be out of town on Feb. 3. Dietz said her Republican friend is concerned about Buttigieg's age. And Alcorta-Sink's husband also likes Sanders, a sign that ideological preferences are complicated in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

An opening during impeachment trial

The U.S. Senate impeachment trial of Trump will have a ripple effect on the Democratic presidential race in Iowa, and it could include Buttigieg's performance on caucus night.

Several of Buttigieg’s competitors — including Sanders, Warren and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota — will be jurors in the trial. That will take them out of Iowa during the crucial final days before the caucuses where undecided caucusgoers make up their minds. Though surrogates for these candidates are expected to be in Iowa on their behalf, Buttigieg and Biden will effectively have the state to themselves alongside lower-polling candidates.

Buttigieg declined to weigh in on the implications of the trial on his campaign.

"I'm sure it cuts any number of ways," he told the Register. "What I know is that my job is to be connecting as much as possible with the voters who are going to make these decisions."

Steve King, chair of the Kossuth County Democrats, saw Buttigieg on Thursday in Algona. The 74-year-old King, who shares a name with the conservative Iowa congressman, said face-to-face interactions with residents will be key for a candidate's chances on Feb. 3. King has not endorsed a Democratic candidate.

"Iowa is retail politics," King said, while wearing a blue T-shirt with a red donkey. "... the people who come to caucus are relatively active in party events ... they want to see them face-to-face."

Barbara Rodriguez covers health care and politics for the Register. She can be reached by email at bcrodriguez@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8011. Follow her on Twitter @bcrodriguez.

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