Alas, friends, we have reached the end of opponent watchin' season. Next week is Thanksgiving and The Game, so I will be too full of carbohydrates and feels to get something worthy onto these Internets. But before I go: thank you all for listening. I very much enjoy our time together, fleeting though it may be, and I appreciate you spending your Thursday mornings with me. Yes, even if you were reading on the crapper at work. Or if you are currently reading this on the crapper at work. Despite wasting too much of your time, I hope I was to provide you with one or two enjoyable moments from time to time. I feel bad for all of the stupid, though I apologize for none of it. Please have a Happy Thanksgiving, and I'll talk to you again in Punt/Counterpunt before The Game. Oh, god, I have to write about The Game. Aw… aw man okay NEVER MIND WE'RE NEVER LEAVING OPPONENT WATCH. We're gonna Peter Pan this sumbitch and stay in the Not The Game Yet forever.

While we're here, and as an apology for missing a couple of weeks this season, we're going to remember where we had everyone from a Fear Level standpoint at the beginning of the season. Turns out, we done pretty good.

About Last Week

Tough week for The Movement, but not an insurmountable one.

Now the real work begins.

The Road Ahead

Indiana (7-3, 4-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Penn State, 34-27

Recap: Michigan fans had one hope for this game: maybe Penn State would force Indiana to spend some of their Inexplicably Stupid Indiana Game reserves a week early, thereby limiting the amount they could deploy against Michigan. So on that front, the first 20 minutes provided great promise:

Tack on Indiana (accidentally) attempting the worst fake punt in quite some time, and the game went reasonably well on that front.

The teams settled down into a more traditional football game after the initial craziness. Peyton Ramsey threw for 371 yards at 9 yards per attempt despite losing Whop Philyor early to a concussion. On the flipside, it does not appear that the Indiana ground game is ever going to turn itself around this season; they are averaging 3.8 yards per carry on the season, and have only cracked 4.5 yards per carry against Rutgers and Maryland.

Original Fear Level: 4

This team is as frightening as: Of all of the teams on Michigan’s schedule, we probably undersold the two remaining opponents the most at the beginning of the year. With Indiana, this was mostly because we underestimated the impact of launching Mike DeBord into the sun. Unfortunately, we can now expect the sun to underperform for the next few years. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Michigan can talk all they want about not falling into this as a “trap game.” Make no mistake: THIS IS A TRAP GAME. It is the trappiest of all trap games. It's a week after exsanguinating a hated rival, a week before a matchup with an even more hated rival, and it's in Bloomington got-dang Indiana, home of the WHAT IS EVEN HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. It is like one of those Acme “Russian nesting doll of traps” setups that Wile E. Coyote arranges, with a giant mousetrap sitting in an even larger bear trap sitting under a giant suspended boulder with dynamite strapped to it and giant rockets aimed at the whole thing from all sides, with a small bowl of bird seed in the middle labeled "FREE BIRD SEED."

Michigan can sleep soundly about: As in the cartoon, because the laws of physics and logic have no power in this place, the trap never works exactly as intended, and Poor Damn Indiana always ends up standing there exploded or falling off the cliff or catapulted into the canyon wall.

When they play Michigan:

Next game: vs. Michigan, 3:30 p.m., ESPN (Indiana +9.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Nothing more to see here. Please move along.]

Ohio State (10-0, 7-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 56-21

Recap:

It was fine. An out-and-out smashing by any objective standard; they outgained Rutgers on a per-play basis 7.6 to 3.5. Despite kicking off, the Buckeyes were up 14-0 less than four minutes into the game. They scored touchdowns on six of eight offensive drives before pulling Justin Fields. Two of Rutgers’ three scoring drives were off of very short fields because of fumbles.

Still. We were promised super-murder. A quiet smothering will do the job, and Ohio State had no reason to put in any but the most nominal of efforts, but this should have been ye olde public spectacle execution where the condemned is flung into the pit of the ancient beast.

Original Fear Level: 10

This team is as frightening as: Yuh-huh. Ancient beast in the pit. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Chase Young, not unlike said ancient beast, is now rested and angry.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Not much, but at least the tryptophan in the turkey will help you…

/places finger to ear

/nods.

…DAMMIT CAN'T WE HAVE ONE NICE THING EVER?

When they play Michigan: please can we have this one nice thing

Next game: vs. Penn State, noon, FOX (OSU -18)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Middle Tennessee State (3-7, 2-4 CUSA)

Last week: Lost to Rice, 31-28

Recap: Rice was 0-9 on the season, including a loss to UTSA, and was ranked #123 in the country in overall SP+. They were averaging 14.9 points per game, which was 2nd-worst in all any FBS team. And MTSU, despite outgaining the Owls by 1.7 yards per play, managed to fall behind by 17 points by halftime. Just a brutal, brutal loss.

Original Fear Level: 2

So? They are even worse than we thought they were. The Blue Raiders are #113 in SP+, which is worse than Rutgers.

Next game: vs. Old Dominion, 4:30 p.m., ESPN3 (MTSU -15)

Army (5-6)

Last week: Beat VMI, 47-6

Recap: What can I say. Army beat VMI by approximately the same amount that Furman beat VMI the week before. Furman’s mascot is the Paladins. “Paladins” were the knights of Charlemagne’s court. The story of Charlemagne’s defeat at the Battle of Roncevaux Pass, the Song of Roland, is considered the oldest surviving piece of significant French Literature. Victor Hugo’s Les Misérables was not actually about the French Revolution of 1789, but rather about the Paris Uprising of 1832. While it was released nearly a decade and seven Kanye breakdowns ago, N****s in Paris still slaps.

Where was I?

Oh. Right. Army football is bad.

Original Fear Level: 6

So? The original fear level was both way too optimistic and way too pessimistic. When you go to double-overtime with a team, it’s hard to say “we were way too high on this team,” but on the season Army has been worse than anyone predicted. Vegas had them as a 10-win team preseason, and now they need an upset over either Hawaii or Navy to even make a bowl game.

Next game: Bye; they close at Hawaii and then against Navy.

Wisconsin (8-2, 5-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Nebraska, 37-21

Recap: The scoring margin doesn’t seem to reflect the closeness of the game. Nebraska outgained Wisconsin, on both a per-play basis (8.2 to 7.3) and overall (493-482). Nebraska averaged more yards per carry (7.4 to 7.1) and yards per pass (9.6 to 7.7). The Huskers were better on 3rd down (6/12 vs. 3/9). Both teams had one turnover.

Jonathan Taylor rushed for a billion yards for the thousandth time, so we applaud him for that and wish him a hardy "go pro, please and thank you." Nevertheless, it feels like Wisconsin may have peaked a little early in the season.

Original Fear Level: 7.5

So? We undersold them initially, based primarily on an assumption that Jack Coan (or Graham Mertz) wasn’t going to be good enough to take the pressure off of Jonathan Taylor and a rebuild offensive line. Coan ended up being functional enough against most of the schedule, and he wasn’t even needed against Michigan. The defense was also better than we expected, though a get-healthy bounceback seems obvious in hindsight.

Next game: vs. Purdue, 4:00 p.m., FOX (Wisconsin -24)

Rutgers (2-8, 0-7 B1G)

Last week: Morally defeated Ohio State, 21-56

Recap: Was this their most impressive game of the year? It's impossible to say… but yes. Rutgers hadn't scored more than 10 points in any of their previous 9 conference games, and hadn't hit 21 points in a conference game since 2017. Meanwhile, 21 points matches the most Ohio State has given up all season; they also gave up 21 to FAU because sports don't make sense.

Original Fear Level: 2

So? Too high. That said, their sudden outburst of store brand offense-type substance gives them a fighting chance to avoid a victorious RutgerQuest; their scoring ratio jumped from 9.0% to 13.0%, and they still have Michigan State left. WE BELIEVE IN YOU, GUYS.*

*Correction: we do not believe in them. We apologize for the error.

Next game: vs. Michigan State, noon, FS1 (Rutgers +21)

Iowa (7-3, 4-3 B1G)

Last week: Kinnick’d Minnesota, 23-19

Recap: Every dang year. Every year we warn people DON’T GO INTO THE CREEPY BASEMENT ALONE. But what do teams do? Time after time, they say “I’ll be right back,” and skip merrily into the lair of the Cornbelt Babadook.

Beating an undefeated Top 10 team by putting up fewer than 300 yards of offense in a NINE POSSESSION GAME? Oh, that’s a Kinnicking. You miss a field goal, turn the ball over on downs a couple of times, and like 20 minutes later the game is over. Iowa grabbed a 20-3 lead midway through the second quarter, and — like a polite Midwesterner — decided that 20 was quite enough so there was no need to take another helping until Minnesota got a chance to score.

Original Fear Level: 7

So? About right. Iowa is #23 in SP+, and all of their losses are by a single score to top 15 teams (by 7 to Michigan, by 5 to Penn State, and by 2 to Wisconsin). They also just knocked off 9-0 Minnesota — college football remains the absolute best — and will be favored to finish 9-3. That said, we knew we were facing Road Iowa.

Ultimately, Iowa was the same as always. They beat the bad and mediocre teams, and they lose to the good teams, except for the one week where they cash in all of their Pepsi Points for a Harrier Jet.

Next game: vs. Illinois, noon, BTN (Iowa -15.5)

Illinois (6-4, 4-3 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Majestic. Glorious. Splendiferous. Simply resplendent (Barron)

Recap: No recap. Bye.

Original Fear Level: 3

So? For 5.5 games, this seemed to be too ambitious by half. The Illini were 2-3 and were getting waxed by Michigan, and the only question was whether Lovie would get fired before or after the next week’s homecoming festivities. But they made an annoyingly strong second half showing against Michigan, and then they won four straight games, including a win over #6 Wisconsin and the largest comeback in school history against… /checks notes… Michigan State, I believe.

So, in light of this overwhelming new evidence: 3.5.

Next game: @ Iowa, noon, BTN (Illinois +15.5)

Penn State (9-1, 6-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Indiana, 34-27

Recap: Indiana outgained Penn State on a per-play basis, and while the Nittany Lions only punted three times all day, they only forced two punts. And while they led for the entire second half, this wasn't a stirring performance on the heels of their loss at Minnesota.

Original Fear Level: 8

So? About right. They built the entire plane out of chunk plays, which can be a tough way to make a living, but they've found just enough out of KJ Hamler and Pat Freiermuth and KJ Hamler and Journey Brown and KJ Hamler and Noah Cain and KJ Hamler. We might have made them a 9 if we'd known ahead of time that it would be a White Out, but they aren't a terrifying juggernaut of doom like some teams we could mention.

Next game: @ Ohio State, noon, FOX (PSU +18)

Notre Dame (8-2)

Last week: Beat Navy, 52-20

Recap: It wasn’t even as close as the score would suggest. The score was 45-3 less than five minutes into the second half. Notre Dame scored six touchdowns and a field goal on their first seven possessions, while forcing three turnovers, a turnover on downs, and a couple of three-and-outs in the process. Navy did manage to move the ball pretty efficiently (4.7 yards per play, including 4.4 yards per carry), but they fumbled four times, which is a recipe for a bad time for any team, but especially a team like Navy.

After the Michigan game, it appears Notre Dame finally decided that the best remedy for a skittish quarterback is to throw the ball to the gigantic guy. Chase Claypool’s three largest yardage games (118, 97, and 117) have come in the last three weeks. This week, he caught seven passes, four of which went for touchdowns.

Original Fear Level: 8

So? Probably going to finish 10-2, with losses to #4 Georgia and #12 Michigan. Wins over USC, Virginia Tech (who is currently ranked), and Navy and Virginia (who were both ranked at the time). Sitting in the top 20 in SP+, with the #26 offense and the #21 defense. They're also in line for their fourth 10-win seasin in five years, and they have already secured their ninth 8-win season in the last ten years.

That’s nice.

Too bad Y’ALL SUUUUUUUCK LOL see you in 2078 or whatever.

They got a leg up on Notre Dame. Ending the rivalry on a high note. And going out on top.

Sorry, sorry, I'm trying to delete it.

…

They cleared that hurdle. (Fuller)

Next game: vs. Boston College, 2:30 p.m., NBC (ND -19)

Maryland (3-7, 1-6 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: Last year, I ran my first ever ultra/sufferfest-type race. It was a midnight-to-8:00 a.m., as-many-five-mile-laps-as-you-can-do-in-eight-hours Tough Mudder obstacle race. And when people asked me what the hardest part was, I tell them it wasn’t the cold, or the wet, or the repetitive pounding, or the constant going down and getting back up, or the cramping, or the obstacles, or even the running mile after mile after my ankles had long since ceased to function. No, the hardest part was stopping – whether it be for a moment to tie a shoe, or waiting for an obstacle or choke point to clear, or in the pit area between laps – and then convincing my body that we had to start again. There is some sort of ‘coefficient of static friction’ concept for mental fatigue that eventually makes the first step so much harder than the second step.

That is what I imagine the Terps – fans and players alike – are feeling right now. They got to stop for a week, which was great… but man oh man how do they convince themselves to get moving again.

Original Fear Level: 3

So? Remember when Maryland outscored their first two opponents by 122 points? Well, they were outscored by a combined 185 points (323 to 138) in the 8 games since then. They’ve been outscored 296-73, or 37.2 points per game, in non-Rutgers conference games. Their best Amazing Surprising Competent Maryland Performance performance was a six point loss to Indiana.

“3” may have been generous.

Next game: vs. Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Maryland +4)

Michigan State (4-6, 2-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan, 44-10

Original Fear Level: 7

So? I must apologize. Even after repeatedly thumbing my nose at the idea of the dangers of disrespekting the Spartans, I did not practice what I preached. I left their fear level practically unchanged all season, regardless of the weekly evidence that, as the kids say, they ain't it, chief. Last week, despite coming off a shattering loss to Illinois – their fourth straight defeat – I still had them ranked the same as 7-2 Indiana. For all of the talk about seeing Michigan State as they are rather than as they were, I failed you in this respect. It's obviously easier in in hindsight, but from now on, I promise to treat Sparty as they are.

And who are they? They're either the 7th or 8th best team on Michigan's schedule this year. They're either the 8th or 9th best team in the Big Ten. And they're going to be worse next year.

Y'all a 4.

Why, for 63 years I've put up with it now.

I must stop Bowl Season from coming… but how?

Next game: @ Rutgers, noon, FS1 (MSU -21)