There is no more important position in all of sports than quarterback. And has there ever been a time when we’ve had better quarterbacks in the NFL?

Who is the best? Who is the worst? Where does Jameis Winston rank?

Welcome to our 2018 starting NFL quarterback rankings.

We have two lists. The first by Times columnist Tom Jones. The other by Times sports analytics reporter Thomas Bassinger. Here’s how it works:

Jones is a gut/feel guy. His opinions are based on what he sees, what he thinks, what his gut tells him. Bassinger, too, has strong opinions, but part of his ranking is based on what the numbers say. Both writers also are trying to project how the quarterbacks will play in 2018.

It’s a classic case of one guy using his eyes, while the other leans on statistics. The rankings include only the quarterbacks considered to be their team’s primary starter this season. No backups (Nick Foles and Teddy Bridgewater, for instance) are included.

So check out the lists and comments, as well as their discussion on their differences.

The rankings

Rank Tom Jones' pick Explanation Thomas Bassinger's pick Explanation 1 Tom Brady, New England The GOAT remains the best in the game right now. Even at 41. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Since becoming a starter in 2008, he leads the NFL in yards per pass (7.9), touchdown percentage (6.5) and passer rating (104.2). 2 Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay I still have my doubts because he has only won one Super Bowl. But most days plays the position as well as anyone ever has. Tom Brady, New England Only two quarterbacks have thrown 400 passes in their age 41 seasons. Thanks to Brady’s TB12 pliability lotion and magic pajamas, he’s more like 33. 3 Drew Brees, New Orleans If you had one game to win, no one would complain if Brees was your starting quarterback. Drew Brees, New Orleans He has never won fewer than seven games as the Saints quarterback. Give him an average defense, and he’ll do the rest. 4 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Still the toughest QB in the game. He will make some dumb throws. He also makes some of the gutsiest big-moment throws ever. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Wentz had 33 touchdown passes and didn’t play the last three regular-season games. No one passed him until Russell Wilson in the fourth quarter in Week 17. 5 Matt Ryan, Atlanta Lack of a Super Bowl ring probably keeps his profile down. When his career ends, we’ll see numbers that were Hall of Fame worthy. Russell Wilson, Seattle In 2017, he threw more than 500 passes, led the Seahawks in RUSHING yards and absorbed almost 100 hits. Most impressive: He’s never missed a game. 6 Russell Wilson, Seattle When the play breaks down, there might not be a better quarterback in the game. Better than I thought he’d turn out. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh After an uneven first half, he finished strong, throwing 18 touchdowns and only five interceptions. His 103.6 rating ranked third. 7 Derek Carr, Oakland Last year was a fluke. This guy can be scary good and now that he’s teamed with Jon Gruden, look for him to return to elite status. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Ryan was historically good in 2016 and was due for some regression. He had bad luck, too. He threw an NFL-high five interceptions that were tipped to defenders by receivers. 8 Andrew Luck, Indianapolis One of the best before he started having shoulder problems. I’m banking on him being healthy and, if he is, he still is one of the best. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers An underrated career. Of the quarterbacks who took their first snaps in 2004, Rivers has a case for being the best. He turns 37 this season and won’t be able to carry the Chargers much longer. 9 Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco It was a very small sample size (5-0 with 49ers last year), and he was everything everyone predicted he would be. Doesn’t take a genius to see he is special. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Stafford has led 32 game-winning drives in his nine seasons, fifth most among active quarterbacks. If only they could field a credible defense ... 10 Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Could be a mistake ranking him this low. Let’s see how he comes back from injury and if he has the same magic. Dak Prescott, Dallas Prescott’s first 24 games: 39 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 102.4 rating. His past eight games: six touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 74.0 rating. Bet on the larger sample. 11 Matthew Stafford, Detroit Wish he could have played for a better organization. I still think he has a few more big-time seasons left and time to prove he is better than many think. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis I’m not sure what to expect after he missed a season, so this ranking is based mostly on his very good 2016 (top 10 touchdown rate, yards per attempt average and passer rating). 12 Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers I’ve never been a Rivers guy. He can look spectacular for large chunks of the season, but never seems to be playing in games that mean anything. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota His critics say he has no “signature” wins, that he’s a system quarterback. Can he carry a team week after week? Probably not. But the numbers say he’s a borderline top-10 quarterback. 13 Eli Manning, New York Giants I’m still higher on Manning than most. With a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. returning and Saquon Barkley in the backfield, he and the Giants are going to have a bounce-back season. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do over a full season under coach Kyle Shanahan. Would not be surprised to see him take a step back. 14 Marcus Mariota, Tennessee I still have doubts he’s ever going to be better. Yet, he’s steady and reliable and maybe he will improve. To me, he’s a decent QB. Deshaun Watson, Houston Those six starts last season were fun. I’m not sure his league-leading touchdown rate (9.3 percent) and yards per catch (13.5) are sustainable. 15 Deshaun Watson, Houston He’s going to be a really good quarterback. But I’m just not ready to proclaim it after a short season that ended in injury. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams Repeating his 2017 performance is a tall order. The Rams don’t need him to. The defense should be one of the NFL’s best. 16 Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams Rams Goff was really good year last year. How much of that was because of Goff and how much was it because of coach Sean McVay’s offense? Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Last season, he set career highs in completion percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating and DVOA. 17 Dak Prescott, Dallas Definitely took a step back, but he did too many good things as a rookie to dismiss him as a below-average QB. This year will tell us which direction he is trending. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Thought he was better than Winston in 2016 but took a step back last season. His below-average passer rating from a clean pocket is a concern. 18 Cam Newton, Carolina You just never know what you’re going to get from this guy. From season to season and even from game to game. That makes him hard to rank. He feels like a middle-of-the-road QB to me. Derek Carr, Oakland Carr is 27, and that’s not old enough for coach Jon Gruden. I fully expect Kurt Warner to join the Raiders during halftime of their Week 8 game against the Colts. 19 Alex Smith, Washington Yes, he’s a game-manager. But that’s not a bad thing. He probably won’t win games by himself. But he won’t lose them with bone-headed turnovers. He gives his team a chance each and every week. Cam Newton, Carolina An exciting but erratic passer. I’m skeptical that he’ll thrive under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner, at least in the short term. 20 Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Let's forget the off-field junk for now. He is going to need to start limiting his mistakes and bad decisions before he can be rated any higher. Tyrod Taylor, Cleveland He and Alex Smith are basically the same quarterback. Both are underappreciated, protect the football and play for dysfunctional franchises. Taylor’s younger and has legs that move faster. 21 Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Not special. But steady. Definitely good enough to lead this Vikings team to playoffs. I don’t know that I’m building a franchise around the guy. Alex Smith, Washington Smith’s interception rate before Andy Reid: 2.9 percent. With Reid: 1.4 percent. Smith is in Washington now. Reid is in Kansas City. 22 Case Keenum, Denver He had a spectacular season with the Vikings last year, but that’s really all he has done in his career. Was it a fluke? Maybe. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Back in 2016, Football Outsiders’ QBASE projection model gave Mahomes the best odds of the quarterbacks in his draft class of developing into an upper-tier player. 23 Joe Flacco, Baltimore He’s better than he has shown in recent seasons and that has more to do with the diminishing skill around him. Still capable of being productive. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago I don’t expect Matt Nagy to turn the Bears around like Sean McVay turned around the Rams, but they should benefit from a coach that will let his quarterback, you know, pass. 24 Ryan Tannehill, Miami If Tannehill is your QB, it’s not the worst-case scenario. But if he is your QB, don’t you always have an eye out for someone better? Case Keenum, Denver In the second half of games, the Vikings ran the ball more than anybody else except the Rams. Keenum produced like an MVP last season, but he’s probably more of a game manager. 25 Sam Bradford, Arizona Can he stay healthy? If so, I still believe he remains a better-than-average QB. I can also see him getting banged up and struggling again. Eli Manning, New York Giants Should bounce back some, but still overrated. Go ahead. Cite his two Super Bowl wins. He’s led the NFL in interceptions three times, including the season he won his first Super Bowl (2007). 26 Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Dalton seems to be getting worse every season. Now, he’s below-average and his best days are well behind him. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati He’s a hero in Buffalo, but not in Cincinnati. He’s just good enough to not force the Bengals to start looking elsewhere. 27 Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Hard to rank because has hasn’t played much. Get back to me in a year. Sam Bradford, Arizona Bradford’s career in 15 words: Team signs him, decides 10 minutes later, “Hey, we should draft or sign someone else.” 28 Tyrod Taylor, Cleveland He actually had a pretty decent 2017 in Buffalo. Then again, if he was that good, why did the Browns use the No. 1 pick to take Baker Mayfield, a quarterback with lots of questions? Ryan Tannehill, Miami Tannehill … you see … uh … well … at least he’s not Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, Chad Henne, John Beck, Cleo Lemon, Joey Harrington, A.J. Feeley or Jay Fiedler. 29 Blake Bortles, Jacksonville How in the world did he take Jacksonville to the AFC title game? Oh yeah. He didn’t. The Jags defense took them there. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Even the Jaguars believe the less they use him, the better. He averaged a career-low 32.7 passes per game last season. 30 Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Not great as a rookie. Then again, his team stinks. He might improve a little with better talent around him, but still a long ways to go. Josh McCown, New York Jets The Bucs sacked McCown six times last season. Everyone else: 16 times. 31 Josh McCown, New York Jets It would be shocking if he’s the starter midway through this season. Good guy. Not a good quarterback. Joe Flacco, Baltimore His play has gotten progressively worse over the past three seasons. He shouldn’t be starting. 32 AJ McCarron, Buffalo Very limited playing time in his career, so maybe he’ll surprise. I doubt it. AJ McCarron, Buffalo If this McCarron/Josh Allen/Nathan Peterman thing doesn’t work out, maybe Buffalo folk hero Andy Dalton will be available soon.

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, right, runs a drill in front of EJ Manuel (3) during NFL football practice in Napa, Calif., Wednesday, Aug. 1, 2018. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu) CAJC105





Debating the rankings

Jones and Bassinger discuss some of the differences in their QB rankings:

TJ: What numbers did you plug into your Commodore 64 in your mom’s basement to come up with ranking Derek Carr that low?

TB: I see you’re still thinking about 2016. Go back and watch his play under pressure last season, Mr. Eye Test. Tell me how those nine interceptions look.

TJ: Yeah, but I tell you what man, he’s got Chucky Gruden now. That should help.

TB: Gruden? Yeah. Carr will be a great fit for Gruden —- when he turns 35. Gruden can’t even get a decent haircut, let alone develop a young quarterback. Why so much love for Carr anyway? You have him ahead of Wentz!

TJ: I really like what he did in 2016 and that’s the real Carr. I might have Wentz a little low. I guess I’m not ready to go all-in. The mighty Nick Foles came in and the Eagles didn’t miss a beat. You have Wentz ahead of Russell Wilson, Big Ben and Matt Ryan? Really?

TB: A little low? I don’t remember Wentz having a bad game last season. He played well against the good teams and obliterated the cupcakes. He even threw a touchdown pass after tearing his ACL and LCL. But I get it, he doesn’t have the experience of, say, Jimmy Garoppolo.

TJ: You mean the Jimmy Garoppolo that has never lost a football game? Ever? The guy who took over for a crummy 49ers team that was 1-10 and went 5-0? That Jimmy Garoppolo?

TB: Out of that grand total of seven career starts, there’s one that stands out to me — the Week 16 win over the Jaguars. A Week 17 win over Sean Mannion and a Rams team that was resting its starters? Let’s put Jimmy G. in the Hall of Fame with Eli Manning.

TJ: Okay, here we go. Eli. I LOVE ELI! Then again, I like winning Super Bowls.

TB: You like interceptions, too? Because Eli has ’em. He’s basically Jay Cutler. Eli: 16.2 per season. Cutler: 13.3. Eli and the Giants — there was a defense, too, you know — got hot at the right time. Most overrated quarterback of his generation.

TJ: All I know is the guy twice went up against he greatest quarterback who ever lived (Tom Brady) in the biggest game and when it was over, his team was lifting the Lombardi Trophy and he was the game’s MVP. He’s going to have a bounce-back season. Speaking of overrated. I’m getting the feeling Dak Prescott might be. You have him as a Top 10 guy.

TB: You think Carr can return to elite status but Prescott can’t? He played poorly during the second half of last season. I’ll chalk that up to growing pains. At his worst (74.0 passer rating), he was about as good as your boy Eli (74.9).

TJ: There you go with your numbers again. Yeesh. I’ll let you get back to your Madden game. I’m going to go watch some real football.

TB: Before you do, you might want to get your eyes checked.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) looks to pass, during the first half of an NFL preseason football game against the Miami Dolphins, Thursday, Aug. 9, 2018, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)





What about Winston?

Jones and Bassinger discuss their rankings of Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston:

TJ: You and I disagree a little on Jameis Winston. You have him at No. 16. I have him at No. 20. Leaving the off-field stuff aside and looking only at what he does as a football player, I gotta tell you, I still just don’t trust his decision-making. He still turns over the ball a little too much for my liking.

TB: Jeez. No. 20? Winston’s backers are gonna fill up your inbox! RIP, your Twitter mentions.

TJ: There’s a lot to like about his quarterback play. I just think he’s always going to be the quarterback he has shown to be so far. He’ll make some great plays and he’ll make some bone-headed plays.

TB: He’s a lot like Cam Newton in that way. Their career touchdown rates, interception rates and passer ratings are strikingly similar. Absolutely, the turnovers are a problem. When coaches preach protecting the ball, it’s not cliche. Teams that won the turnover battle last season won 80 percent of their games.

TJ: I don’t know that Jameis will ever get it through his head that it’s okay to give up on a play. If I’m the Bucs, my fear is that he will always turn the ball over. He has got a gunslinger’s mentality. And that means turnovers.

TB: I still think about that play against the Jaguars last preseason. Winston’s on his butt —- can’t see anything —- and still throws the ball up. Koetter flipped out. “Your greed takes over.” Despite his flaws, I think his floor is league average. His recklessness is what’s keeping him from taking the step from “good enough” to “great.”

TJ: I agree.

TB: I see you have Mariota ranked higher. If the Bucs could have a do-over of the 2015 draft, would he be your pick?

TJ: If we’re talking about football only, it’s a toss-up. Winston is a riskier pick, but his upside is better. But I think I’d play it safe and go with Mariota. To me, football is so much about winning the turnover battle and I think Mariota is going to give you a better chance to do that. I simply trust Mariota more.

TB: A year ago, I would have said Mariota and felt pretty good about it. I thought he had made a leap as a deep passer. Last season, he regressed. Some of that might have been his hamstring injury. Some of that might have been coaching. Or even coaching because of the injury. He just didn’t look as comfortable in the pocket. His touchdown rate plummeted, and his interception rate spiked. I’m still bullish on him, though. With Mike Mularkey gone and Matt LaFleur as his offensive coordinator, I’m expecting a lot of play-action, and that’ll play to his strengths. Yes, I have Winston ranked higher. I think he’s better right now. But over the long term? Mariota’s my pick.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck passes during warmups before an NFL football preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks, Thursday, Aug. 9, 2018, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear) SEA105





Forecasting 2018

On the rise

Bassinger: Dak Prescott. His late-season slump was a temporary setback and not a warning sign.

Jones: Andrew Luck. This isn’t about getting good again, it’s about getting healthy.

In decline

Bassinger: Alex Smith. He won’t be able to top his outstanding 2017 season.

Jones: Andy Dalton. He’s gone from promising young QB to also-ran almost overnight.

Breakout star

Bassinger: Patrick Mahomes. Surrounded by lots of talent — Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt.

Jones: Jimmy Garoppolo. Last year’s hot finish is just a taste of what this guy can do.

Backup in the making

Bassinger: Joe Flacco. When the most exciting thing about your offense is the kicker, it’s time to make a change.

Jones: Tyrod Taylor. Only a matter of time before Baker Mayfield is the starter.

Oct. 21 starter vs. Bucs

Bassinger: Taylor. He avoids turnovers. That should help him hold off Mayfield for a little while.

Jones: Taylor. He still will be holding onto the Browns job. Barely.

Dec. 16 starter vs. Bucs

Bassinger: Lamar Jackson. More of a plea than a prediction. No more Joe Flacco.

Jones: Flacco. Barring injury, this will remain Flacco’s team for 2018.

When Jameis Winston returns ...

Bassinger: … he’ll be the same quarterback we’ve watched for three seasons — hot one moment, cold the next.

Jones: I expect to see the same Jameis as always. Some brilliant plays, some dumb turnovers and some struggles with consistency.

Contact Tom Jones at tjones@tampabay.com. Follow @tomwjones.

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.































