Baldwin wants Democrats to know she could lose

With Elena Schneider

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DON’T YOU FORGET ABOUT ME — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is telling anyone who listens that she could lose her election. She doesn’t want her party’s machine to take her race for granted. Campaign Pro’s James Arkin, from Portage, Wis.: “It’s an unusual message for any candidate, but the liberal Democrat from Wisconsin is sounding the alarm after Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer effectively declared the first-term senator a favorite to keep her seat in November by leaving her off their lists of top-tier Senate races. After their pronouncements, major outside groups in both parties skipped Wisconsin in their initial $120 million of spending planned for this fall — triggering fears among state Democrats that the party will take victory for granted.

“But there’s palpable concern here among Democrats — and Baldwin especially — that Wisconsin is ripe for a repeat of 2016, when Donald Trump carried the state by less than a percentage point and GOP Sen. Ron Johnson surged to a surprise reelection behind a flood of late spending from conservative groups. ‘My first reaction when somebody said Mitch McConnell said something about Wisconsin not being on the [list], I said tell that to the Koch brothers network. Please tell that to Richard Uihlein,’ Baldwin said in an interview at a local diner after chatting with a few late-afternoon patrons.”

— Concerned Veterans for America, a Koch-backed group, went up with a new ad this morning slammed Baldwin for missing meetings. The group says there is a “nearly million-dollar digital and television” buy backing it.

— A group backing Leah Vukmir in the GOP Senate primary, Wisconsin Next PAC, released a new attack ad against Kevin Nicholson. From James: “‘President Trump needs an ally he can trust in the U.S. Senate. That's not Kevin Nicholson,’ a narrator says, before showing a clip of Nicholson, the former president of the College Democrats, addressing the 2000 national convention. … The ad ends on a shot of Vukmir and Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who has not endorsed in the race. A spokesman for the PAC said they were spending mid-six figures on it. They have booked at least $388,000, according to data from Advertising Analytics.”

CONVENTION SPOTTING — Book your hotels now. Charlotte, N.C., looks likely to be the sweepstakes winner for the 2020 Republican convention, per The Wall Street Journal’s Michael Bender and Valerie Bauerlein: “Republican officials were finalizing details Tuesday on a deal to bring the party’s 2020 convention to Charlotte, N.C., making a southern city in a battleground state the site for President Donald Trump’s expected nomination for a second term, people familiar with the selection process said. Party officials are also discussing the selection of a convention chairman, with David Bossie and Ronald Kaufman among the top choices, according to people familiar with those talks. That decision rests with Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel. …

“The Charlotte city council has scheduled a meeting for Monday to approve the deal, according to a person familiar with the decision. The vote is expected to prompt debate among the Democrats who control the council, the person said. A spokesman for the city didn’t return a call seeking comment.”

— And to that point, Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, a Democrat, has an op-ed in The Charlotte Observer on why she wants to host the convention: “The current political climate, with its divisive rhetoric and harmful policies, does not represent my values or the values of most Charlotteans. But if Charlotte is the site for the RNC, we can show that our city is about inclusion and leverage it as an opportunity to demonstrate our values of respect while honoring our differences.”

Good Wednesday morning. As always, you can email me at [email protected] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. I had help today from Elena Schneider ( [email protected]; @ec_schneider).

Email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @MaggieSeverns and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 118.

Upcoming election dates — July 17: Alabama primary runoffs. — July 24: Georgia primary runoffs.

Upcoming primary filing deadlines — Louisiana: July 20.

MORE EARLY FUNDRAISING — OH-SEN: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s campaign raised $3.7 million and has $11.1 million cash on hand, per a release.

— FIRST IN SCORE — MT-SEN: Republican Matt Rosendale raised more than $1 million last quarter, per his campaign.

— NV-SEN: Republican Sen. Dean Heller raised $2.4 million and has $5.85 million cash on hand. He trailed his opponent, Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, in Q2 fundraising but has more cash on hand.

— PA-SEN: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey raised $2.2 million and has $9.8 million cash on hand, per his campaign.

— TX-SEN: Republican Sen. Ted Cruz “is expected to report over $4 million raised in the second quarter and $10 million in the bank, according to a Cruz insider,” The Washington Examiner’s Al Weaver reported (you should read all of Al’s profile on Cruz, where he broke the fundraising news).

— CA-10: Democrat Josh Harder raised $1.25 million, per California Playbook.

— FL-18: GOP Rep. Brian Mast raised just over $1 million and has just under $2 million cash on hand, per his campaign.

— More FL-18: Democrat Lauren Baer raised more than $500,000 last quarter and has $1 million in cash on hand, per her campaign.

— IA-01: Democrat Abby Finkenauer raised $765,000, per her campaign.

— MN-02: Democrat Angie Craig raised over $1 million and has over $1.5 million cash on hand, per her campaign.

— NV-03: Democrat Susie Lee raised $850,000 with more than $1.2 million in cash on hand, per her campaign.

— NY-22: Democrat Anthony Brindisi raised just over $660,000 and has over $1.4 million cash on hand, per his campaign.

— PA-07: Democrat Susan Wild raised $865,000 in the second quarter, per her campaign. (Yesterday’s Score said she raised $710,000 — that was only her post-primary fundraising).

— WI-01: Republican Bryan Steil raised over $650,000 with over $615,000 cash on hand, per his campaign.

— AZ-GOV: Democrat Steve Farley raised over $340,000 in the second quarter, per his campaign.

— WI-GOV: Democrat Kelda Roys raised over $650,000 this filing period and has over $650,000 cash on hand, per her campaign.

FIRST IN SCORE — ON THE AIRWAVES — Missouri Rising, which is a state chapter of America Rising, is going up with a seven-figure buy for a new ad bashing Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. “Dishonest, out of touch. McCaskill is out for herself, not for us,” the narrator says in the ad. The ad will run for the next two weeks.

— The Senate Majority PAC, which is tied to Democratic leadership, reserved at least $563,000 in Missouri across broadcast, cable and satellite from July 11 to 17, also per Advertising Analytics.

— Democrat Danny O’Connor, who is running in Ohio’s 12th District special election, reserved at least $759,000 in broadcast time from July 17 to August 7 (the date of the special election), per Advertising Analytics.

VEEP TO THE RESCUE — Vice President Mike Pence is kicking off a Midwest swing to fire up the base — and calm some donors. POLITICO’s Natasha Korecki: “Vice President Mike Pence begins a campaign swing through the Midwest today designed to fire up the base in three battleground House districts. But there’s also a secondary mission: damage control. In the face of a trade war that intensified just four days ago, Pence is quietly setting up one-on-one meetings with major Midwestern donors where he is prepared to blunt concerns over an escalating situation that’s beginning to wreak havoc on markets, farmers and employers across the region. …

“The vice-president’s trip — announced Monday, just days after the United States leveled a 25 percent tariff on $34 billion of Chinese goods and China enacted equivalent retaliatory tariffs — will take him to Kansas City, Cedar Rapids and Chicago, where he’ll meet privately with big donors and attend fundraisers for three embattled Republican House incumbents. Pence is also planning public events with America First Policies, a group that is advocating for the Trump tax cuts.”

SUPER TEAM — The campaign team backing Democrat Richard Ojeda in West Virginia’s 3rd District, mostly political novices, is running a surprisingly competitive race. Roll Call’s Simone Pathé: “Neither [communications director Madalin] Sammons nor [campaign manager David] Graham nor Ojeda’s finance director — who also happens to be his brother-in-law — had ever worked on a congressional campaign before. Now they’re collaborating with presidential-level consultants who think the race for the open seat vacated by Republican Rep. Evan Jenkins could help Democrats flip the House in November.”

KOCH WORLD — One of the arms of the Koch brothers’ network, The Freedom Partners Action Fund, is backing Rep. Ron DeSantis in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary. The group said it will be launching “a strategically targeted mail and digital campaign” backing him. POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon has more on the implications of the endorsement.

TREND WATCH — Don’t call it a wave, but Democrats are outpacing Republicans in turnout in primaries in competitive districts — with a major caveat. Bloomberg’s John McCormick: “Democrats turned out more voters overall than Republicans in 14 of the most competitive congressional districts that have had primaries so far, signaling the eagerness of the party’s base to confront Donald Trump in the first midterm election of his presidency. … The advantage also isn’t spread evenly. Democrats tallied more total votes than Republicans in just half of the 14 the districts, and they’ll need to win in many of those places to gain at least 23 U.S. House seats to take control of the chamber.”

TURNOUT STRATEGY — The liberal think tank Center for American Progress is out with a new report on how to get more Americans to the polls. The report argues that policies like automatic voter registration could add at least 22 million more people to the rolls, which could yield 7.9 million new voters. The group also estimated that if “every registered and unregistered eligible but nonvoting American [had] been contacted by canvassers, there could have been approximately 6.2 million more voters during the 2016 elections.”

FIRST IN SCORE — EMILY’s List is re-endorsing Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, who narrowly lost a House special election bid against Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko in Arizona’s 8th District. Tipirneni is seeking a rematch against Lesko in November.

CODA — “Richard took one step back, and said, 'Angus, I don't know if you want to quote ‘Hamilton’ to me since my great, great grandfather shot him.’” -- Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), relaying a story in which he quoted the musical “Hamilton” to Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to praise Burr’s work as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, via Courier Publications of Maine.

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Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro



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