The GBPUSD is back below the 1.6461 low level from March 2014 (see daily chart below). That move gives the pair a more bearish technical perspective. The next target is the bottom channel trend line from the same daily chart.

Looking at the daily chart below, the price has been tracking the channel trend line over the last month of trading. That bottom trend line comes in at 1.6445 today. The low today is at 1.6442. Having the current price below the 1.6461 low from March 2014 is step 1 for the bears. Getting and staying below the 1.6445 level is step 2 if the sellers are to keep the pressure on dip buyers.

Yesterday, the 1.6461 level held support nicely, but failure to extend higher in the Asian session, triggered the stops below the key level, and the initial move to the lows at 1.64438 ensued (see 5 minute chart below). The subsequent corrective move during the London and early NY session has seen the price try to hold above the 1.6461 area (see chart below). That failed.

Now with the recent push lower – back below the 1.6461 level – the market will now test the will of the sellers and the fear from the buyers. Stay below the 1.6461-71 area now, and the sellers have the upper hand. Fail (i.e. move back above this area) and the consolidation/correction should have further to go on the disappointment from the break. Risk is defined.

Stay below the 1.6461-71 level keeps the sellers in control now.

The line is in the sand on the topside. Let’s see if the sellers can keep the price below that line and give the needed push below the 1.6445 level that sticks this time. Key test time for the sellers strength, and gut check time for the buyers.