Despite the efforts of anti-smoking groups like the American Council on Science and Health to convince the Obama administration to change the 'grandfather' date for existing e-cigarette and vaping products, so that tens of thousands of existing products would not be driven out of existence, with only large companies remaining, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration stuck to its February 15, 2007 predicate date, requiring anything manufactured after then to undergo lengthy and costly assessment before receiving the necessary approval for their continued availability.

It is not a large market today, and in 2007 it was tiny. Ironically, the only companies with enough money to undergo these assessments are competitors to e-cigarettes, like pharmaceutical and tobacco companies. Does that mean people will revert to smoking or, if they still want to quit, will go to patches and gums?

Surveys results from the Center for Substance Use Research instead find that it will make 'casual criminals' out of people who using vaping products. That's never good. But eliminating tens of thousands of products from legal existence is just asking for a black market. There are currently an estimated 8.34 million e-cigarette users in the United States, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

9,040 US-based current users of electronic cigarettes (8,451 current e-cigarette users who were former smokers, 282 current e-cigarette users who were also current smokers, and 307 current e-cigarette users who had never smoked) were asked what they would do if, as a consequence of the Deeming Rule, the e-cigarette products they use right now were taken off the market. Approximately 75 percent of those questioned said that in advance of the rules being implemented, they would stock up on their preferred e-cigarettes; nearly 70 percent said that they would buy their e-cigarettes and e-liquid from a non-licensed vendor (i.e. the creation of an unregulated "black market"); 66 percent said they would import e-cigarette products from overseas; and 65 percent said that they would make and mix their own e-liquid on their own premises. In stark contrast to these high percentages, less than 20 percent of e-cigarette users said they would switch to a FDA approved e-cigarette in the event that their current preferred product was no longer available.

Worryingly, 15 percent of the former smokers questioned said that they would likely go back to smoking tobacco cigarettes if the e-cigarettes they are currently using were no longer being sold. In addition, 33 percent of current smokers said they would likely smoke more tobacco, and 10 percent of non-smokers who currently use e-cigarettes said they would be more likely to start smoking, if they find themselves in a situation where they cannot buy their preferred e-cigarette products.

Dr. Christopher Russell from the Centre for Substance Use Research who led the research, commented that, "This research shows there is an enormous gulf between the expressed intentions of the FDA and what many e-cigarette users see as being the likely impact of the regulations. The regulators' aims of improving the quality standards in e-cigarette production, improving the accuracy of labeling, ensuring the safety of e-cigarettes, and to reducing young people's access to e-cigarettes are all laudable aims in themselves. However, if in the wake of these regulations, significant numbers of e-cigarette users turn to the black-market to source their preferred products, then the positive impact of the regulations will have been diminished and significant harm could be caused to those users. It is vitally important that FDA and policy makers recognise the harms that would potentially be caused if, after August 8th 2018, the majority of current e-cigarette users sampled, who may represent many millions more, act on their expressed intentions to pursue ways to continue to using e-cigarette products that are taken off the licit market by the FDA's Deeming Rule."

"There is a clear need for the FDA to monitor the impact of these rules to identify whether these adverse effects are occurring and, if they are, to consider reconfiguring the regulations," Dr. Russell continued. "Clearly it is not in anybody's interests to drive the population of current e-cigarette users towards the black-market. One way of avoiding these adverse unintended consequences would be for the FDA to allow current e-cigarettes and e-liquids to continue to be the subject of a lighter form of regulatory assessment whilst imposing much stricter regulatory controls on any future products being developed by the industry."