April showers bring May flowers, but in the case of gas prices, last month's increases are being washed away by a drop in the price of crude oil and wholesale gas.

"If not for the (state) gas tax increase, we would be talking about a lot of $1.99's out there," said Tom Kloza, Oil Price Information Service global petroleum analyst. "From April 12 to May 4, we've seen a 30 cent slide in the price of wholesale gas."

Pump prices have been slower to catch up to wholesale price drops, but it will happen, Kloza said. While GasBuddy.com reported the average price of regular in the state was $2.36 per gallon on Monday morning, the bigger movement is in discount prices, which ranged from $2.03 to $2.15.

This price seen at a Delta station in Jersey City on May 5 was nine cent lower than the $2.38 average price for regular in the state.

The average price in New Jersey dropped five cents from the previous week and Kloza said drivers could see another nickel decrease this week. Any increases due to the switch to "summer" blend reformulated gas have been taken.

"You've got a guaranteed nickel drop, it will come sooner more than later," Kloza said.

Driving it is the dive that crude oil prices have taken over the past month, from a high of $53 a barrel on April 11, which slid to $46, Friday afternoon. Crude started Friday day just over $45 a barrel. Wholesale gas has had a similar trajectory, landing at $1.50 a gallon on Friday.

So what are we looking at for the summer? Demand will be up, but Kloza questioned if it will support higher prices.

"When we got above $2.40 a gallon, that may be the high," he said.

The wild card, of course, is OPEC, which meets on May 24 when members will talk about whether to extend the Jan. 1 cuts in crude oil production. Kloza said the smart money is on another 6 months of production cuts.

On April 28, OPEC said it had "98 percent conformity" from member and non-member nations that agreed to make production cuts of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day.

"It's such a critical OPEC meeting, the most likely course is to roll the production cuts through the next 6 months of the year," Kloza said.

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.