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Why GTAIV 360 DLC Will Eventually Go to The PS3

This is pure speculation, so take it all with a grain of salt. It's just for fun and is only a possibility. But with that said, read on:



The possibility of Grand Theft Auto's downloadalbe content going cross platform all depends on the details of Microsoft and Rockstar's DLC (downloadable content) exclusivity deal, which of course, are under wraps. The questions to consider are the following:



1) Is this deal a "timed exclusive", meaning, does Microsoft have the rights to this add on content only temporarily, sticking Rockstar with a gag-order on speaking of any future plans for said content? (I.E. "Bioshock")



2) Does the deal ban Rockstar from creating any other type of downloadable content for other systems during the course of their deal? Meaning, can Rockstar create it's own exclusive DLC for Sony's machine as well? What would happen if Rockstar decided to do a separate set of episodes for the PS3 at the the same time (as unlikely scenario as this is).



3) Is the downloadable content exclusively meant to be exactly what it sounds like is it? Meaning, after all the episodes are released via XBox Live, can a packaged disc version of this content be sold at retail?



4) If Microsoft fails to meet a certain sales goal on the DLC in an alloted amount of time, do they lose their exclusivity?



These are all questions that could effect whether or not the DLC has the option to go cross-platform.



Here is what we do know. Please keep in mind the statistics below are real, but other than that there is plenty of estimation going on.



1) First week sales for GTA IV were 6 million copies (1), with an expected 15 million copies to be sold by the end of the year (2). Given the split between the two machines, and the larger install base on the XBox 360 due to it's one-year jump on the PS3, the current ratio is about exactly 58 (Xbox) / 42 (PS3), as cumulative sales for the game have been 5.8 million and 4.3 million, respectively (3). During GTAIV's first week, of the 6 million copies sold, 3.3 million were XBox 360. This also means that by the end of the year, if the 15 million mark is reached, we'll see about 8 million copies sold for XBox and about 6 million sold on PS3, give or take a million copies.



2) The next question is, how many users actually buy downloadable content? Well, lets look at Call of Duty 4, which has about the same amount of XBox users attached to it as GTAIV, and is wildly popular on XBox Live, currently with 6.3 million copies sold. (4) When COD4 released it's downloadable content for XBox 360, it set a new record for sales of DLC on XBox Live, selling over 1 million copies in it's first week of release.(5) At that time, the install base for the XBox 360 version of the game was at about 5.7 million (6), (ironically right about where the 360 GTAIV is now). This means that during the first 10 days of the DLC's release, roughly 1/6 customers bought the DLC.



If we compare this same 1/6 ratio to the expected 15 million copies that GTA will sell by the end of the year, and only 58% of those are for the XBox (based on the current Xbox 360 vs PS3 ratio), that leaves us with an expected 8.7 million copies of the game sold for 360. If 1/6 of those customers purchase the content in the first week like they did in the case of the comparable Call of Duty IV, that estimates that 1.45 million copies of the DLC will be sold during the first week. Of course additional copies will be sold in consecutive weeks, but sales will dwindle with each week forward. This is also assuming that the content were to be launched on December 31st ;).



Now here is the question: Is that enough to justify the exclusivity?



Here is where the big glimmer of hope comes in for PS3 users. The PSP saw a similar episode with two of it's releases "Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories" and "Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories". These were - in essence - expansion packs of the original "GTA3" and "GTA Vice City". Virtually the same maps - with minor modifications - but a whole new story and adventure. The problem was, these two "exclusive" PSP titles, did not sell enough copies to "waste" them on the PSP, and eventually PS2 ports were released.



See, with GTA series being such a hot commodity, anything under 10 million sales is almost looked at like being a failure. "Liberty City Stories" sold 4.8 million on PSP, but it took the PS2 port to churn out another 3.2 million in sales, still not reaching that magic number. (7). It's sequel, "Vice City Stories", also failed to do anything significant, selling only 2.69 million on PSP, then .69 million on PS2 (ouch). (8) These numbers pale in comparison to the totals sales granddaddies GTA3 on PS2 (11 million) and GTA Vice City PS2 (14 million), not to mention the extra bit squeezed out of the original XBox double pack (2.2 million, ahem).



What this tells us is, despite the smaller PSP install base, even with the PS2's larger install base, not many went for the "expansion packs" that were "Liberty City Stories" and "Vice City Stories" - which is about what you can expect from the XBox DLC - simply a smaller adventure in the pre-existing city.



Where PS3 users will ultimately win, is with that 1/6 to 1/7 ratio. Based on the above statistics, we can assume that given the fact that the install base is cut in half by limiting the DLC to one system, the DLC will not reach it's full sales potential on the XBox 360 alone. The minute Rockstar and Microsoft's agreement is null and void, you can expect to see the DLC elsewhere, whether on the PSN, or collected as a budget $29.95 Blu-Ray disc for PS3. The truth of the matter is, Rockstar won't "allow" something with the GTA logo on it to "fail", and will do whatever it takes to milk it for all it's worth.



Now, if Microsoft's exclusivity deal with Rockstar for the DLC is 100% exclusive, owned by Microsoft until the aliens come, then the above numbers don't mean anything and speculation is worthless.



But, we all know that's not how these things work (ahem, Bioshock).



Sources:



(1) http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/05/08/gta.sales/index.html

(2) http://www.vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=grand+theft+auto+IV&console=®ion=All&developer=&publisher=&genre=&keyword=&boxart=Both&results=50&order=Hits

(3) http://www.vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=grand+theft+auto+iv

(4) http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=7316®ion=All

(5) http://xboxlive.ign.com/articles/867/867617p1.html

(6) http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?game1=Call%20of%20Duty%204:%20Modern%20Warfare%20-%20X360

(7) http://www.vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=liberty+city+stories

(8) http://www.vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=vice+city+stories&console=®ion=All&developer=&publisher=&genre=&keyword=&boxart=Both&results=50&order=Hits