Matt Brown still leads but Paul Cheng is closing in as the race to become London mayor heads into what could be a red-hot home stretch, a new poll suggests.

The Forum Research/Free Press poll indicates the only two likely contenders for the city’s top political job are Brown, a 41-year-old, first-term councillor and school teacher, and Cheng, a 57-year-old businessman and political neophyte.

Brown drew 35% support in the poll, while Cheng was second with 27%.

With the survey’s four-point margin of error, this could go down to the election-day wire Oct. 27.

The results are especially promising for Cheng, the quintessential political outsider, according to Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“While Matt Brown has been treading water in the lead for the last month, Paul Cheng has been consolidating his voter base and, powered by his small-c conservative message of ethics, prudence and growth, moving this race closer to a tie,” the pollster said.

“The growth in his awareness has been phenomenal.”

Just one month ago, in another Forum poll done exclusively for The Free Press, Cheng was running second with 19% support, suggesting he’s gained significant ground on Brown in recent weeks.

Brown’s support rose by three points over the same period.

But what hasn’t changed is the stunningly poor showings of political veterans Roger Caranci and Joe Swan. Neither drew even double-digit support in the latest poll, suggesting it’s now a two-way race between Brown and Cheng with time running out.

About one-fifth of voters, 18%, remain undecided, down sharply from one month ago.

Respondents in the latest survey were also asked which candidate would never get their vote.

Nearly half, 45%, ruled out Swan, the longest-serving politician on the ballot, while only 7% said they couldn’t vote for Cheng, the newcomer.

Cheng’s showing is remarkable: Despite no city hall experience and a political resume that only includes a failed federal Reform Party run in 1993, his self-financed ad campaign is making headway.

Though criticized for not understanding how city hall works, Cheng’s promise to run it “like a business” appears to be resonating. Unlike his rivals, the oil-and-gas consultant’s campaign team is made up of volunteers with little experience.

The Forum poll also asked who respondents believe will win — as opposed to who they support — and the showings were favourable to Brown: 45% expect him to be the next mayor, while 22% think it’ll be Cheng.

Interestingly, the survey also suggests Brown and Cheng may appeal to many of the same people: Asked to name their second choice, 34% of Brown supporters cited Cheng, while 27% of Cheng supporters named Brown.

The poll findings make a clear statement about the public’s view of city council — particularly the 6% support drawn by both Swan and Caranci, one local observer says.

“It suggests that voters are clearly looking for new faces and are turning away from established people who have been in local politics for a long time,” said Martin Horak, head of Western University’s local government program.

“It suggests there’s a real depth of desire for change.”

Horak, who makes no secret of his concerns over Cheng’s readiness for the job, believes the newcomer appears to have plenty of momentum. Brown, he adds, needs to start speaking out more about his “vision” for London.

“Cheng needs to keep doing what he’s doing and Brown needs to change his tactics,” Horak said.

Another Toronto-based firm released a unrelated mayoral poll this weekend. It, too, found Brown in the lead, with 39% support, and Cheng second at 27%.

Caranci and Swan both ran in single digits in that poll, which was considered accurate within 2.9%.

patrick.maloney@sunmedia.ca

twitter.com/patatLFPress

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OTHER QUESTIONS:

WHO DO YOU THINK WILL WIN?

Matt Brown: 45%

Paul Cheng: 22%

Joe Swan: 8%

Roger Caranci: 6%

Arnon Kaplansky: 2%

Other: 6%

Don’t know: 11%

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WHO IS YOUR SECOND CHOICE?

Paul Cheng: 20%

Matt Brown: 14%

Roger Caranci: 10%

Joe Swan: 8%

Other: 18%

Undecided: 30%

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WHO COULD YOU NEVER VOTE FOR?

Joe Swan: 45%

Roger Caranci: 15%

Matt Brown: 12%

Paul Cheng: 7%

Other: 21%

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Forum release: Go to poll.forumresearch.com