And the race, after all, is about delegates. Since activist tea party Republicans are not new to the party, the delegate makeup make not be as different as it appears. Though the caucus and primary calendar isn't fixed, one thing that is that the delegates prior to March 1, 2012, will be proportionally apportioned. That gives lesser-known candidates a way to stay in the race longer--and well-known candidates the impetus to invest heavily in races outside the core fourearly states--Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., has proven she can raise a significant amount of money, but her burn rate is prodigious. Out of $16 million she accumulated last quarter, she spent $14.5 of it. That means she's investing heavily in direct mail, buying lists, and building a large network of small donors that can be tapped again and again, provided she gives them a reason to donate. If she's competitive in Iowa, she'll have plenty of money to be competitive elsewhere.

Jon Huntsman, Jr. is in a pickle. The former Utah governor will have the money to stay in the race as long as he wants and he's taking positions on economic and health care issues that should leave him in good standing with Republicans, assuming they can handle his being Obama's ambassador to China and his moderate stances on issues like civil unions for gays. But from the standpoint of Obama's brain trust, there is no compelling reason for Republicans to vote for him.

The White House considers Tim Pawlenty to be a formidable contender. He's a self-described "Sam's Club" Republican who strikes middle America as a nice guy, and he's got a solid Horatio Alger story that will distract people from his fidelity to orthodox conservative policy positions.

But Pawlenty, a plurality governor in a blue state, has no real innovative ideas to his name, was less popular when he left office, and seems to be betting on a strategy of allowing anyone who might beat him to collapse from their own weight. Candidates don't tend to win that way. Look at Lamar Alexander and his presidential bids, also premised on likability, competence. Pawlenty will be forced to focus attention on social issues to prevent Bachmann from taking his votes in Iowa and South Carolina. That'll make it tough to pull back to the center in the general election.

The primary race, most of Obama's team believes, is Mitt Romney's to lose. And here's the case they'd make for him: He was an effective governor of a very blue state with notable achievements (not just health care) to his name, a very smart policy-oriented brain, and an underappreciated asset: he saved the 2002 Olympics--or so the story goes. (Never underestimate the power of Americana during an election year.)

Romney's problem is similar to Obama's: he doesn't play well with downscale voters. He comes off as the manager who fired them, or who cut their wages--the "Richie Rich" know-it-all. Obama's demerits with these voters are different, but a general election race between the two would leave a large number of those voters up for grabs.