

GFS model simulates a wintry mix at 7 a.m. Tuesday morning over the D.C. metro region. The freezing line, in red, is shown across central Loudoun County extending north along the Montgomery-Frederick County line. (WeatherBell.com)

After two straight mild afternoons, an Arctic front seeps edges into the region Monday night. Cold air bleeds southward, setting the state for a wintry mix of precipitation by Tuesday morning.

Like last Wednesday’s setup in the region, temperatures will probably be just marginally cold enough to support frozen precipitation in the immediate D.C. area. So, while we may see some sleet and/or wet snowflakes, any accumulation or build-up on roads is a long shot. Temperatures will probably remain at or slightly above freezing. Having said that, pay attention to forecasts as a slight shift to the colder side could mean a higher impact situation.

Unlike last Wednesday’s storm, a strong area of high pressure will be poised to the north, acting as a source of refrigerated air.



European model shows strong high pressure poised over eastern Canada Tuesday morning, serving as a source of cold air into the region. (WeatherBell.com)

In our colder suburbs north and west of the Beltway, temperatures are more likely to be a little below freezing – which may allow for a slippery mix of freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow. Precipitation amounts won’t be heavy, but just a little ice and snow could cause commuting issues during the morning rush.

In short, the same areas that received accumulating snow last Wednesday are the same areas that are most likely to experience delays and slick travel Tuesday morning.

By late Tuesday morning or early Tuesday afternoon, the cold front retreats to the north as a warm front, allowing most areas to rise safely above freezing, ending the winter weather threat. But it will remain a cold, raw day, with temperatures holding below 40 in most spots.

We’ll provide additional details and analysis on Monday.