for updated information on Typhoon Parma’s strike on Philippines, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Parma is beginning to interact with the landmass of the Philippines. The Western Pacific Satellite Water Vapor Loop indicates that the dry air that had messed up the Typhoon such that its status as a super typhoon was lost has now passed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased and so if there is some good news, its that the ferocity of the storm will probably be reduced when it makes landfall early on Saturday. But, the issue with this storm has always been primarily the rainfall. (see official text and discussion below) Remember, the flooding from a week ago that killed nearly 300 people was caused by a tropical storm. Not only will this storm bring heavy rain with landfall, it appears more and more likely that it will almost become stationary as it emerges on the north side of the Philippines. NASA TRMM satellite indicates Parma is already bringing heavy rains to parts of the Philippines with thunderstorm tops of 8.5 miles with rainfall rates up to over 1.5 inches per hour The forecast for Sunday is pretty much a consensus for this. That would mean that there will be a tropical storm or typhoon sitting just offshore bringing a flow off of the South China Sea into the northern half of the Philippines for a reasonably extended period of time. The mountainous regions of the country will do nothing but enhance rainfall rates and accumulations. After 48 hours, there is no consensus. The Philippines government is doing the best it can to prepare for the assault of Typhoon Parma on Saturday.

There is one scenario in which the storm moves west across the South China Sea toward Vietnam. There is another that a trof passing to the north may pick it up and move it northeast. Two other scenarios has Typhoon Melor moving past to the East and heading toward Japan and in its wake, the storm moves northeast. Still another is potentially awful which would be for Melor’s structure to be large enough to interact with Parma. That would have Parma get forced back to the southeast for a time…or possibly back over the Philippines if it is still situtated to the northwest of the islands when that happened. After that southeast movement, then it would get shot out to the northeast. I call this a pinwheel situation, though I believe its more officially known as a binary interaction. When two tropical cyclones get close to one another, they can’t merge but they will rotate around each other with the flow of each storm.

The official forecast for Typhoon Melor (warning text) is a little better as previously it had been forecast to be a super typhoon with winds gusting to 190 mph as it approached Tokyo. But, the dry air that messed up Parma for a short time has moved east and has affected Melor. As it stands, the latest forecast track of Typhoon Melor no longer has it actually striking Tokyo but instead brushing just offshore of the largest Japanese city with winds of about 125 kts gusting to 150 kts. A 140 mph typhoon just off the entrance to Tokyo bay would be no picnic but I suppose its better than a direct hit from a super typhoon. I would say that the Melor forecast 5 days out is very problematic and Tokyo or even all of Japan is not out of danger as there will be so many variables, including if/how it intereacts with Parma. I could draw up a scenario that an interaction with Parma makes it worse for the Philippines and also bad for Japan. But, it’s going to do what its going to do.

Either way, its been a tough week for the Western Pacific and looks to be rough for the week ahead.

WTPN33 PGTW 030300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE

BANDS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE CENTRAL

PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS AN INTENSE TYPHOON, WITH SATELLITE

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 KTS (PGTW) TO 105 KTS

(RJTD). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE PERIPHERY

OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST

PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.

B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT

PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER, TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS PERIOD,

IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE

ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CROSS INTO THE

LUZON STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS

PRESENTED. THE SOLUTION SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY THIS FORECAST IS

REPRESENTED BY NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM AND THE EXTENDED FIELDS FOR

ECMWF, SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE

OTHER SOLUTION REPRESENTED BY WBAR, GFS AND TCLAPS, SHOWS A

RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITHOUT LANDFALL ON LUZON.

C. BEYOND TAU 72, TYPHOON PARMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-

STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND

PLACES THE SYSTEM INTO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE

AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK

WITH GFS, TCLAPS AND WBAR STEERING THE VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT

AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES

WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE. THE

EXTENDED FIELDS FOR ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-

STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE RECURVING TO THE

NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 120. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE REMAINS A

LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TY 19W. THE

FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF TY 20W TO THE EAST. THE

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT CURRENTLY INDICATE A DIRECT

INTERACTION BETWEEN TY 19W AND TY 20W, THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS

MODEL. THE GFS MODEL RECURVES TY 19W SHARPLY AFTER TAU 72, AND

MERGES TY 19W INTO THE CIRCULATION OF TY 20W AFTER TAU 96. THIS

INTERACTION IS FACILITATED BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH (IN THE

OTHER MODEL FIELDS) CAUSES THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SEEN IN THE OTHER MODELS. THE UNCERTAINTY

IN THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 48 IS LARGE, WITH LARGE VARIATIONS

IN NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS OCCURRING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN.

THERE IS A ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE FOR TY 19W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD INTO

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OR TO RECURVE AND INTERACT WITH TY 20W IN THE

EXTENDED PERIOD.//

REMARKS:

030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 122.5E. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) LOCATED

APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS

TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE

SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON,

PHILIPPINES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS

BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL

SLOWLY TURN TO THE EAST FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STEERING

ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WEAK. 19W WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE

EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS AND

INCREASES THE STEERING FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER

THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK HAS INCREASED

ACCORDINGLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 32 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO

TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 022

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

030000Z — NEAR 17.4N 122.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 122.9E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

031200Z — 18.5N 121.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

040000Z — 18.9N 121.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS

—

36 HRS, VALID AT:

041200Z — 19.4N 120.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

—

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

050000Z — 20.1N 120.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

—

72 HRS, VALID AT:

060000Z — 20.9N 121.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS

—

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

—

96 HRS, VALID AT:

070000Z — 21.5N 123.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS

—

120 HRS, VALID AT:

080000Z — 21.9N 126.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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