For those that have been following along with my Bitcoin technical analysis articles in the last few months, you know I’ve been supporting a return to 3500 as the bottom before the new bull run begins. You COULD say this is clouding my mind and, to be fair, you may be right. I’ve got my long term hodl bag, so I’m as anxious as the next guy for the market to turn around, but I do believe that the “Path of Maximum Frustration” will take us through a much lower zone than we’ve already experienced in a capitulation event. Below you’ll see a controversial chart showing both bearish sentiment and a very premature declaration of a chart pattern. I will be burned at the stake, I understand this. But as you can see, we have some bearish divergence forming on the daily. It hasn’t confirmed yet, but it looks within the realm of possibility. If the bearish divergence is in fact indicative of price direction going forward, we may see the downward slope of the right shoulder, confirming the head & shoulders pattern and propelling bitcoin right into my bids.

However, I could be wrong. The zone I’m watching is 6800-area where we could see a throw-back bounce off of the left shoulder price level and bearish macro-trend line. If this happens, I’d imagine it’s a VERY bullish signal and I may be re-thinking the bids to get in before the next run. Either way, unfortunately, I don’t think we’re going to see a massive take-off for several months as we consolidate.

September will be an illuminating month.

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