This chart shows the per cent more or less that voters born in a given decade were likely to vote for a particular party, compared to the average Canadian voter. Use the slider to switch between decades of birth.

Voting preferences of voters born in the 1940s

Liberal

Conservative

NDP % Election Year Missing years in chart mean either (i) they weren’t old enough to vote or (ii) there weren’t enough respondents for that election in the survey (a cut off of 100 respondents was used). year,con,lib,ndp "'74",3.40,1.50,-2.70 "'79",7.60,1.50,-6.70 "'80","false","false","false" "'84","false","false","false" "'88","false","false","false" "'93","false","false","false" "'97","false","false","false" "'00","false","false","false" "'04","false","false","false" "'06","false","false","false" "'08","false","false","false" "'11","false","false","false" year,con,lib,ndp "'74",2.9,-1.9,-0.5 "'79",6.9,-1.2,-4.4 "'80",8.3,-5.4,-2.5 "'84",-3.5,9.5,-3.4 "'88",-1.7,7.2,-4.4 "'93",-4.6,11.8,1.3 "'97","false","false","false" "'00",12.1,0.3,0.3 "'04","false","false","false" "'06","false","false","false" "'08","false","false","false" "'11","false","false","false" year,con,lib,ndp "'74",3.3,3.1,-4.6 "'79",0.2,4.3,-2.5 "'80",3.7,0.8,-2.1 "'84",-2.4,4.5,-1.5 "'88",1.8,6.2,-6.4 "'93",-4.3,10.7,-0.6 "'97",7,-1,-1.6 "'00",-0.3,3.1,0.1 "'04",1.1,12.7,-7 "'06",8.3,10.9,-7.9 "'08",4.9,8.1,-0.7 "'11",4.6,9.3,-8.9 year,con,lib,ndp "'74",0.10,1.10,-0.20 "'79",3.20,0.20,-1.80 "'80",-1.50,3.50,-1.90 "'84",4.10,0.00,-3.10 "'88",5.70,1.00,-6.30 "'93",0.70,3.20,0.20 "'97",4.80,-1.70,0.30 "'00",3.40,-0.10,-1.90 "'04",9.00,1.90,-4.30 "'06",6.30,3.30,-3.10 "'08",9.20,2.70,-5.20 "'11",10.30,3.70,-9.00 year,con,lib,ndp "'74",-3.7,-2.6,6.2 "'79",-1.6,-0.7,1.8 "'80",1.6,-3.4,2.3 "'84",2.9,-4.2,1.1 "'88",-1.5,-2.6,4 "'93",-0.5,0.4,-0.1 "'97",1.6,0.5,0.8 "'00",-2.5,-1.4,1.6 "'04",1.2,4.4,-3.8 "'06",1.9,-0.2,-0.8 "'08",4.3,2.7,-4 "'11",2,1.2,-2.1 year,con,lib,ndp "'74",-6.80,-0.40,2.40 "'79",-7.90,-2.80,7.00 "'80",-8.20,-1.80,6.80 "'84",0.10,-6.30,3.60 "'88",0.40,-4.30,3.10 "'93",2.00,-3.00,-0.40 "'97",0.30,0.20,-0.30 "'00",-0.10,-0.10,0.20 "'04",-5.10,2.20,1.00 "'06",0.40,-1.50,0.50 "'08",-0.60,-0.80,-0.10 "'11",-5.00,0.90,2.50 year,con,lib,ndp "'74","false","false","false" "'79",-9.9,6.6,0.9 "'80",-10,12.3,-4.1 "'84",-3.1,5.1,-1.1 "'88",-3.1,1.3,1.1 "'93",2.8,-4.1,0.2 "'97",-3.3,0.8,-0.2 "'00",1.3,-0.6,-1.7 "'04",1.9,-5,1 "'06",-2.4,-1.6,2.3 "'08",-3.2,-1.1,1.1 "'11",-2.4,-1,3.5 year,con,lib,ndp "'74","false","false","false" "'79","false","false","false" "'80","false","false","false" "'84","false","false","false" "'88","false","false","false" "'93",-8.60,-1.00,0.10 "'97",-6.70,-3.10,1.30 "'00",-3.90,0.90,0.30 "'04",0.50,-10.30,6.50 "'06",-5.00,-4.10,0.20 "'08",-3.20,-1.10,1.10 "'11",1.80,-8.00,3.50 year,con,lib,ndp "'74","false","false","false" "'79","false","false","false" "'80","false","false","false" "'84","false","false","false" "'88","false","false","false" "'93","false","false","false" "'97","false","false","false" "'00","false","false","false" "'04",-15.2,0.7,5.8 "'06",-13.3,1.6,8 "'08",-13.2,-8.3,9.9 "'11",-6.7,-1.9,1.8

The second effect of age is one that researchers often call generational effects. Rather than your specific age being important, when you were born and, more crucially, when you were an adolescent provides a generation with a common context where their political beliefs were formed. It’s like how, even if you somehow manage to keep up with the musical trends of young people these days, you’ll always have a soft spot for bands that were popular when you were 14.

In an attempt to figure out these generational effects, we can divide up voters at each election by the decade of their birth to see if different birth decades had different voting patterns. When we do this, we can see some big generational voting gaps. First, voters born in the 1970s and 1980s seem to be more comfortable voting NDP than the general Canadian population. While some of this effect might be written off as an example of the left-wing exuberance of youth, it also suggests that the NDP has been more successful among young people in recent elections than the more traditional governing parties.

A very persistent generational difference also exists between voters born in the 1920s and those born a decade later. Voters born in the 1920s have been quite consistently more pro-Liberal than the population-at-large. However, voters born in the 1930s are much more pro-Conservative than other Canadians. These effects have persisted very strongly to recent elections, when we might have expected their differences in age to disappear, if they were just life cycle effects.

This suggests then that there is a strong generational gap between Canadians born in these two decades. What might explain this? Voters born in the 1920s would have reached adolescence somewhere between 1935 and 1945, the later days of the Great Depression and the period of the Second World War. Growing up through this time they would have seen popular Liberal governments led by prime minister William Lyon Mackenzie King.

However, voters born in the 1930s would have come of age in a post-war environment, growing up in the economically exuberant times of the 1950s, at the end of the Liberal era, being in their mid-20s at a time when Progressive Conservative prime minister John Diefenbaker won a huge majority in 1958.

None of this is to say that your age or when you were born determines how you vote. Voter choice is a complex process that takes into account many factors ranging from your ideology to your parents’ party affiliation, from your religion to your evaluations of government performance. However, it’s important to recognize that age isn’t just a number. It can help to explain not only the small stories of politics about how voters’ politics change with their life cycles, but also the big political narratives of how important events and historical context can influence whole generations of electors.

We can also use this to gain some understanding of the future of politics. It’s a good sign for the NDP that the youngest generation of voters is leaning towards them, as at least some of these voters will carry their partisan identity with them. Similarly, the consistent Conservative strength among older voters – who also happen to turn out to vote – suggests that if they are able to continue convincing these voters to support them, they can have a strong base going forward. Finally, the Liberals might also see an area for growth in some of their challenges: if Justin Trudeau can build strong youth support on top of an older-skewing base, he might be able to successfully use age to become a second-generation prime minister.

Graphic by Jeremy Agius. Produced by Chris Hannay.