As coronavirus transmission accelerates, we need bold government action to halt transmission and support people in isolation. Andrew Goldstein Follow Mar 13 · 3 min read

I’ll be blunt: We’re soon facing the steepest part of the transmission curve and we are not doing enough.

On the one hand, it’s wonderful how many individuals are isolating themselves and practicing social distancing. It’s great that some business are temporarily closing. Some, like Patagonia, are even paying their workers as they do so, and some, like the NBA, did so quickly and on a relatively large scale. These measures will slow transmission and save lives.

But personal and corporate responsibility are only taking us so far. Even the NBA is quite small. Too many people continue to try to live “normally.” Too many people must get to work. Too many non-essential businesses and institutions, like schools, are staying open. This behavior will lead to preventable transmission, an overwhelming shock to the healthcare system, and deaths that could have been averted.

With Trump administration failures in testing deployment leading to an impossibility of rapid containment via “contact tracing,” we only have one option to optimally protect ourselves. We must have government mandated closures for anything non-essential and we must encourage and support widespread isolation. We must, at this moment of still accelerating transmission, take our last ditch option and call for a societal halt.

And support truly is a morally necessary part of this type of action. We can’t just inhumanely demand people stay at home, without thinking of the consequences. Many are choosing work over social distancing because they live paycheck to paycheck. Many have challenges with family care. So we must ensure “humane isolation.” We must ensure financial support so people can pay rent and bills, and we must ensure logistical support so food, medicine, and other basic needs are met. But we can’t let legitimate concerns and logistical challenges stop us from doing what’s necessary. We must adapt our plans to address these issues.

If we are going to do this, the conversation must start now. The sooner we call for a societal halt, the sooner we build enough pressure for it. The sooner we have pressure, the sooner it’s decided. The sooner it’s decided, the sooner planning can start. The sooner planning starts, the sooner the launch date can happen. And we must do this soon, otherwise we are choosing among terrible scenarios.

Now you might think this is hyperbolic or that I am being hysterical. But we must realize that the current worst case scenarios are estimating that our ICUs will . be overwhelmed, that we’ll run out of breathing machines, and that over one million people in the US will die. For those that survive, the experience will be one of mass trauma. To get a sense, read about overwhelmed health systems, chaos, and mass graves in Wuhan, Iran, and Italy. Imagine that it’s your town, your loved ones. And lockdowns are being done elsewhere, in China, Italy, and now Spain, and being called for by people ranging from Newt Gingrich to Harvard’s Asaf Bitton.

So now is our last chance. We must immediately raise the alarms necessary to demand a societal halt as soon as possible. Gentler methods like simply encouraging voluntary social distancing will and are shifting the curve and will release some of the pressure on the healthcare system. But not enough. We must take bolder action. Drastic methods like a lockdown with humane isolation can at worst, massively slow transmission and ensure a system that isn’t shocked, a nation with far fewer dead. At best, we may even be able to reset the curve, perhaps getting us back on a path to containment. And either way, we’ll be able to look back saying that after the Trump administration let us down, we stepped up and demanded a difficult but necessary path, allowing no further needless death and suffering.

So please, use your voice. Spread the word. Even a full lockdown nationally doesn’t happen, our calls for it may spur local and statewide lockdowns or closures of public schools, spaces, and events. Encourage others to rethink what we really need to live, to forget “normal,” and to focus on collective survival. Recognize the toll of isolation and demand that all who are isolated be humanely supported. The fork in the road has one path where many will lose loved ones and the rest us of will have lived in pandemic hell. Now is our chance to choose the other path. Now is our chance to avoid regret. Now is our best chance to survive.