This is probably the hardest ranking to do due to swaps being pure luck.

Kama

1. Joe – no matter what happens, Joe is not going to tribal. He needed this swap and with tribes only needing second place he will probably avoid tribal. The Kama members that were against him might need to work with him. Overall, Joe is good due to the format

2. Aubry – Aubry found an idol this week. In a swap, an idol can be crucial if the numbers don’t fall your way. Aubry needed this swap. I see Aubry sticking around.

3. Eric – He has many connections on Kama that can carry over to the swap. His nightmare situation is being on a tribe with just Aubry and three Manus due to Aubry probably flipping on him. As long as he does not get swap screwed, he will be fine.

4. Gavin – Gavin will be fine as long as he is on a Kama majority tribe.

5. Aurora – Aurora needs this swap due to her being a back up target on Kama. Aurora seems likable so I think she could survive a couple of votes.

6. Julia – …

7. Julie – Julie is in danger in the three tribe format due to her age. The tribe might see her as weak and if she loses on a Manu majority tribe, she is done. Risky time for an older woman in survivor.

8. Ron – His advantage menu expired. He was also a part of the whole Joe situation last episode so he might be in hot water if he swaps with only returnees.

9. Victoria – the Joe screw up was bad. She was the only non returnee on Kama to get a confessional. This could mean that she is important or she is getting blindsided soon. She is on the bottom in case of the latter.

This tribe is hard to read when only three people got confessionals.

Manu

1. Rick – Rick is in a great position on Manu. He has a partner in David that will take the heat for him. Going into a swap down in numbers is risky so he might get swap screwed but he seems like he can get the other tribe to like him and keep him around.

2. David – David is playing ok. The Chris move was not the best but he probably suffers less than others because of it. David has a solid ally and is liked by everyone. Wentworth may read into his comment at tribal and figure out that he was behind the plan but the swap puts most drama on hold.

3. Lauren – She has an idol at a swap which is always a plus. She is good in challenges physically and good socially. Lauren could be spared in a minority.

4. Wentworth – the only one to really benefit from Chris being gone. She has a hold over Wardog and Lauren. Wentworth may be targeted on a Kama majority without a returnee due to playing before. Wentworth will be fine if she has Wardog with her as a shield.

5. Wardog – I hate Wardog. He made a boneheaded decision taking out an ally before Wendy. Wardog’s attitude and stubbornness will rub Kama members the wrong way and get him booted. Wardog does have Kelley and Lauren but Wentworth has thrown her former tribemates under the bus before. Overall, Wardog might get himself eliminated.

Wendy – Girl stole the flint, created conflict and hurt her ankle and is somehow not on extinction. Everyone on Manu will throw her under the bus on a swap tribe. She is the most likely person to be voted out despite being in a majority.

Swaps make ranking unpredictable. Anyone could go next time.

Extinction

1. Chris – I think he comes back at the merge if Joe stays in the game. Chris has a fire that won’t let him quit. If he gets back, Manu will be targeted. I hope Chris gets back after being done dirty.

2. Reem – I think she will make it to the merge challenge at least. She probably won’t win but she will make it.

3. Keith – the most likely to quit on Extinction. His hesitation the first time does not bode well for his chances.

The purple player of the week will be Julia for consistency.

Grab your stuff and head back to camp!