All of the pieces are coming together for Apple to sell glasses. Using fashion and luxury lessons learned from selling Apple Watch, Apple will enter the glasses industry and in the process launch its first product category designed specifically for the augmented reality (AR) era. While ARKit has taken the world by storm, the development platform is already making it clear that new form factors are needed to take full advantage of AR. It is no longer a question of if, but when, Apple will use AR to rethink glasses.

ARKit

ARKit is Apple's new framework for developing AR apps on iOS. Apple defines AR as the illusion of virtual objects placed in a physical world. There are three ARKit layers:

Tracking. Using Visual Inertial Odometry (VIO), camera sensor data is combined with CoreMotion data to get the device's location and orientation. Scene Understanding. Using the camera view, the device can find horizontal planes in a room in addition to estimating the amount of available light in a scene. Rendering. A constant stream of camera images, tracking information, and scene understanding can be inputted into any renderer.

ARKit transforms iPhone and iPad cameras into smart eyes. Developers then use those eyes, and the technology already found with iPhones and iPads, to enhance our reality. Of course, that enhanced reality is constrained to what appears on our iPhone and iPad screens. Despite this limitation, the possibilities seem limitless.

While some of the earliest examples are interesting, it is difficult to ignore how many of these examples make more sense for a pair of AR glasses. Any AR app involving holding up an iPhone or iPad while not requiring much user manipulation directly on screen makes more sense for glasses. For example, virtual turn-by-turn directions are destined for AR glasses as it’s just not ideal to have to hold up a smartphone in front of our face as we are walking down the street.

This isn’t meant to discredit iPhones and iPads as powerful AR tools. In fact, the iPhone’s future will be one as an AR navigator. However, wearable form factors will likely outpace iPhone and iPad over the long arc of time in terms of their ability to extract utility from AR.

Inevitability

AR glasses check off all of the boxes for a product in Apple's wheelhouse and are deserving of a rare green light to market.

Hardware and software integration. There is room for Apple to create value by controlling both the hardware and software comprising AR glasses. The sum will be greater than its parts. Wearables manufacturing. Apple is learning quite a bit about manufacturing techniques and materials from Apple Watch and AirPods. These lessons can be transferred over to glasses, an item that will need to include a plethora of technology yet remain light. AR technology. Apple's big bet on AR will represent the catalyst for turning glasses and sunglasses into something more. An engaged base of iOS developers experimenting with ARKit will give Apple Glasses a hospitable app environment. Personal technology evolution. AR glasses represent the evolution of Apple's decades-long quest to make technology more personal - allowing people to get more out of technology without having it take over their lives. Fashion and luxury themes. Apple Watch has taught Apple much about how to get people to wear personal technology. Health/Medical. The ability to improve one's vision fits within Apple's expanding interest in health and medical. Retail demoes. Nearly 500 Apple Retail stores offer prime demo areas for customers to try on various glasses.

In terms of selecting the next big industry and product category to enter, AR glasses are high on Apple's list.

Glasses are Misunderstood

Glasses have gotten a bad rap. The item hasn't been able to shake the connotation of being a medical device used grudgingly by those in need of clearer vision. It is still commonplace for people to say something along the lines of "I wouldn't wear glasses if I didn't need to." Such a description undersells glasses, ignoring the device’s purpose and potential.

People wear glasses because they provide utility. For many, that utility comes in the form of improved vision. This is another way of saying corrective lenses (glasses and contact lenses) provide a clearer sense of reality to the wearer. Recent statistics show that nearly 75% of the population has vision that can be improved with corrective lenses. For certain age demographics, the percentage is even higher.

It cannot be overstated how clearer vision is one of the most value-add items a product can provide to its user. There aren’t too many gadgets or devices that would be selected over a smartphone in terms of its importance in our lives. However, corrective lenses would certainly be at the top of the list for many people. Corrective lenses are even required for certain tasks, such as operating heavy machinery like cars. In these situations, clearer vision isn’t just a luxury, but it's a requirement to ensure one's safety.

Glasses also provide a different kind of utility than clearer vision. A growing number of people are wearing glasses despite having perfect vision. Glasses are increasingly becoming accessories for the face, a fashion item complimenting a particular outfit, haircut, or even social occasion. Sunglasses have become a universal fashion accessory. A quick stop by the local shopping mall will reveal a number of stores focused on selling one accessory: sunglasses. Consumers have thousands of frames to choose from in order to find that one pair of glasses that best matches their personality. The glasses/sunglasses industry, led by Luxottica, has played a major role in pushing this new fashion narrative.

Evolution

Apple’s attitude toward face wearables has evolved. In 2013, Tim Cook was interviewed at the D11 conference, and the topic of wearable computing came up. Cook was very clear in his messaging: The wrist made more sense for computing than the face.

Here’s Cook:

"I wear glasses because I have to. I can't see without them. So I kind of have that problem. I don't know a lot of people that wear them that don't have to. People that do wear them generally want them to be light, they want them to be unobtrusive. They probably want them to reflect their fashion, their style, and so forth. And so from a mainstream point of view, [glasses] are difficult...I think the wrist is interesting."

It's noteworthy how Cook undersold glasses, positioning them as merely something he was forced to wear. In early 2015, Jony Ive, overseer of Apple's product strategy, referred to the wrist as "the obvious and right place" for a wearable device while saying the face "was the wrong place." Cook once again dismissed glasses:

"We always thought that glasses were not a smart move, from a point of view that people would not really want to wear them. They were intrusive, instead of pushing technology to the background, as we’ve always believed."

It is easy to dismiss Cook's and Jony’s comments as simple posturing. In the case of Cook, Apple was well on its way to developing Apple Watch in 2013. It had become clear that the wrist would represent Apple’s entry into wearable computing. Regarding Jony's and Tim's later comments, Apple was just a few months away from the Apple Watch launch, arguably the largest product launch for the company since iPad. For them to talk up anything other than Apple Watch and wrist utility would have been surprising.

However, this current Apple management team is not big into misdirection. Apple rarely shoots down product categories only to enter the same space shortly thereafter. Instead, there is a good probability that management was actually not completely sold on the idea of face wearables (i.e. glasses) when Cook and Jony provided their comments. Cook’s initial comments took place well before Apple began acquiring AR companies, which likely play a crucial role in justifying Apple selling glasses. In addition, prior to Apple Watch, Apple had little experience in selling an item as personal as glasses or sunglasses.

Hesitation

I have held much hesitation over the years regarding the idea of wearing computers on the face. Much of this skepticism originated out of questions regarding design (how the device would be used). Computers on the face can very easily become a barrier to getting the most out of technology. Taking a look at the current lineup of computers designed to be worn on the face, it is not difficult to see why such hesitation has been warranted.