You know fantasy football. You understand statistics. You’ve scoured the ins and outs of perennial studs and sneaky sleepers alike. But you’ve never seen them talked about quite like this.

The Fantasy Football season is officially here, with drafts in full swing and white-knuckled hopefuls everywhere “on the clock.” You know all the draft strategies. Waiting to take running backs until the middle of your draft? You’re clearly a “Zero RB” supporter. Still believe the foundation of any good fantasy team starts and ends with the backs? You might be a devout “RB Hoarder.” Are you playing in a two-quarterback league? Then maybe “QB/QB” is the way to go.

No matter what strategy you use, the key to a successful season is always to mitigate risk. Successful fantasy football strategists aim to reduce their chance of busting at key selections. Fantasy championships aren’t won at the draft, but they can absolutely be lost there. The less early round risk, the more likely your team will be alive for a playoff spot down the stretch.

Welcome to the second installment of “Fifty Shades of Fantasy Football.” This week we take a look at big-name players who will fail to meet their Average Draft Position (ADP) standards, and middle-to-late-round sleepers that are sure to rocket up the fantasy rankings by midseason.

There’s no such thing as a successful fantasy football season without a little bit of luck. The trick is figuring out how to make your own.

(All Average Draft Position (ADP) information was taken from FantasyPros.com. All statistical data was taken from PlayerProfiler.com).