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The most important number in Canadian politics in 2019 may not be Justin Trudeau’s approval numbers or the horse race between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

The number everyone in Ottawa is captivated by? The one showing the steady decline in support for the New Democratic Party in 2018. A recent Ipsos Reid poll shows the party at 18 per cent support, down five percentage points since March.

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Trudeau’s approval numbers have also been plummeting in the last year, but Liberals say that’s the cost of governing, especially when the financial markets are trembling and Alberta is in an uproar about a lack of access to markets for oil producers. Most political operatives, on all sides, point out that Canadians tend to give the benefit of the doubt to an incumbent with a majority.

But all three major parties are affected by the NDP’s recent struggles under new leader Jagmeet Singh, who will be vying for a seat in an upcoming byelection in Burnaby, British Columbia.