Peter Robinson has stepped down - who has replaced him?

The DUP leader has stepped down and handed over the post of first minister to his colleague Arlene Foster, so that the executive still exists in a shadow form. It means the entire devolution power-sharing project has not fully collapsed … yet. Keeping one sole DUP minister inside the regional government buys about six weeks of breathing space for talks set up to restore unionist faith in sharing power with Sinn Féin. However, Robinson stepping aside alongside all other DUP ministers - except Foster - may not be enough to impress the unionist electorate – hardliners have described it as a U-turn.



Why, more than two decades after the paramilitary ceasefires and 18 years since the Good Friday agreement, is power-sharing between unionists and nationalists in peril?

The key word is “paramilitaries” and in particular allegations that the IRA continues to exist and kill. A central reason why unionists agreed to share power with Sinn Féin was the IRA statement of 2005, which appeared to suggest the latter was dissolving as a military force. Following this communique, the IRA decommissioned most (not all, it now seems) of its arms.

So why would mainstream republicans risk provoking unionists by allegedly killing former IRA comrade Kevin McGuigan?

Belfast republicans faced a stark choice this summer. They could grit their teeth and allow the Police Service of Northern Ireland to catch the killer of the ex-IRA commander Gerard ‘Jock’ Davison and not bring about a political crisis. Or, fearing which veteran IRA figure might be targeted next by former enemies within the Catholic community, they could strike back. They chose the latter, hence the crisis. McGuigan, a former IRA hitman, was shot dead in August in revenge for Davison’s killing.



So what happens next?

The Irish and British goverments will intensify talks between the five main parties in Northern Ireland over the next six weeks. They will attempt to establish mechanisms to rebuild trust and restore devolved government. There is no guarantee they will succeed and if not, an election in the late autumn would be inevitable.





If devolution and power sharing crashes, will this result in a return to Troubles-style conflict?

No. The vast majority of people in both communities are totally opposed to any return to full-scale violence and that includes Sinn Féin’s electorate. The party knows the IRA cannot be brought back as a full-time fighting force taking on the state because, among other things, this would be disastrous to Sinn Féin’s electoral prospects in the Irish Republic.

How will the anti-ceasefire, dissident republicans react to these developments?

With glee. Their political spokespersons will claim the collapse proves the project of working for a united Ireland within the confines of the Northern Ireland state cannot deliver that republican goal.

What will happen if direct rule has to be reimposed from London?

All the Ulster parties – unionists, nationalists, republicans, and neither – are enthusiastic supporters of controlling their own destiny in terms of the devolved institutions. But if London takes over again, the Conservative government will impose a radical welfare shakeup and cuts to Northern Ireland’s huge public sector. This would prove deeply unpopular, particularly among Sinn Féin’s support base.

Peter Robinson warns it could take a decade to rebuild devolution and power sharing. Is he right?

He may be, as it took almost 10 years – from the signing of the Good Friday agreement in 1998 until 2007 – for a real, all-embracing, stable power-sharing government to be established.