September 23, 2018

Russian MoD Presents IL-20 Investigation Results - Israel "Crossed The Line Of Civilized Relations"

The Russian Ministry of Defense just presented the results of its investigation (vid, English subtitles) into the September 17 incident in Syria. A Russian electronic warfare plane was hit by a Syrian air-defense missile during an ongoing Israeli attack on Syria. Fifteen Russian soldiers died when the plane fell into the Mediterranean.

The investigation confirms the early analysis published on Moon of Alabama:

The Israeli attack came out of the same direction as the Russian IL-20. The large 4 propeller plane creates a much bigger radar reflection than the small F-16s fighter jets. The S-200 missiles have a semi-active radar homing seeker. These are passive detectors of a radar signal which is provided by an external source, in this case the Syrian and Russian radars on the ground. While the missile was aimed at the F-16 its seeker likely mistook the larger radar reflection of IL-20 for the intended target.

Russian experts later provided more details that supported the above analysis.

The investigation presented today found that the Israeli jets intentionally used the Russian IL-20 as a shield against the Syrian air defenses.

Ru MoD Presentation 5:54min



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RT summarizes the Russian conclusion:

"We believe that the blame for the Russian Il-20 aircraft tragedy lies entirely with the Israeli Air Force," said spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, before revealing a detailed account of events leading to the downing of the Russian Il-20 military aircraft on September 17. The plane was shot down by the Syrian air defense units as Israeli's F-16s effectively used it as a cover during the attack on its neighbor. The report featured previously undisclosed radar data and details of communications between Russian and Israeli militaries, and concluded that "the military leadership of Israel either has no appreciation for the level of relations with Russia, or has no control over individual commands or commanding officers who understood that their actions would lead to tragedy."

The report debunks Israel's claim that its jets were already back in Israel when the IL-20 was hit. The Israelis gave the Russian military just one minute of warning, misled about the intended target areas of its September 17 attack and lied about the positions of their jets after the incident happened.

The Russian military spokesperson reminded the Israelis of all the efforts it undertook to accommodate Israel on issues related to Syria. These included the removal of Iranian supported groups from south Syria, the protection of historic Jewish facilities in Aleppo and the recovery of the remains of Israeli soldiers from earlier wars.

"This is an extremely ungrateful response to all that has been done by the Russian Federation for Israel and the Israeli people recently," Konashenkov said.

...

"In view of the above, the hostile actions committed by the Israeli Air Force against the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft cross the line of civilized relations."

The incident will have consequences on several levels. For one - the airspace along the Syrian coast will now be off limits for Israeli flights:

Lebanese news outlet Al-Mayadeen meanwhile reported that Russia plans to continue its closure of the airspace above Syria's territorial waters after the end of military exercises on September 26. According to the report, the decision to shut the airspace was made by Russia's National Security Council after the plane was shot down.

The Syrian air defense will be further strengthened and modernized. Its personal will get more specialist training. But the probably worst issue for Israel's military will be cooled down relations with the Russian forces. There will be no more freebies, no more looking aside and direct Russian fire on Israeli forces should they again try such stunts.

While the Israeli military may feel superior as it has more weapons, especially airplanes, in the area than the rather small Russian force, it is Russia that has the strategic depth and the means to hit any point in Israel from thousands of kilometers away. It is Russia, not Israel, that has a seat at the UN Security Council and the international standing to make itself heard.

The Russian government will, like its military, conclude the provocation was intentional and draw its consequences from that.

Posted by b on September 23, 2018 at 11:57 UTC | Permalink

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