A variation on Renato Shirakashi’s Non-Linear Regression Curve for Bitcoin has been developed with new parameters as to minimise the total of daily percentage divergence from the original Shirakashi’s Regression, and which can be said to “better hug” the base of the price-line. As the volatility and magnitude of future bull-markets/ bubbles are expected to decrease with the maturity and growth of this financial asset, this version had been chosen for the purpose of this projection.

Eyeballing the 365day SMA of the Puell Multiple between the values shown in the the graph above would imply a price in the range from $8,889 to $17,778, that of course if the halving would occur, once more, at Puell Multiple level of ~1.6.

The non-linear regression would be at this point in time at a level of $11,667. The first halving occurred below this regression model, while the second occurred at the level… will this trend continue… and see us above the non-linear regression model at the time of the halvening in mid 2020?

Yes, with a large dose of hopeium :)

Acknowledgements

All reference data used throughout this article has been sourced from:

BitcoinVisuals.com (Hash Rate, Coin Supply)

(Hash Rate, Coin Supply) Blockchain.info (Daily Market Price, Daily Transaction Fees/BTC)

(Daily Market Price, Daily Transaction Fees/BTC) CoinMarketCap.com (Closing Daily Price)