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Less than two weeks before the end of a marathon election campaign, evidence is mounting that voters have decided to make it a two-horse race.

A new poll by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia shows 33 per cent of decided voters nationally favouring the Conservative party, with the Liberals close behind at 31 per cent. Now distinctly in the rear, the New Democratic Party had just 18-per-cent support in the poll conducted Oct. 6 and 7.

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Furthermore, 36 per cent of “leaning and decided” voters backed the Conservatives, with the Liberals at 35 per cent. The NDP had just 20-per-cent support among this group.

Liberal support is high enough to knock out incumbents in the 905 (area around Toronto); the Tories need the NDP to rebound so they can pull some of these seats out on vote splits

Ontario figures put the Liberals up 44 per cent to 37 for the Tories among leaning and decided voters, with the NDP fading to 14 per cent. But more startling were the findings in Quebec, home of the “orange wave” in the 2011 federal election that catapulted the NDP into opposition status.

There, the pollsters found, the three parties were virtually tied among decided and leaning voters: The Conservatives and Liberals both claimed 27-per-cent support, with the NDP at 25. After two strong debate performances by Leader Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc Québécois stood at 17 per cent.