Some weeks later, in Washington, Turnbull lavished praise on Jokowi as “one of the most remarkable leaders of our times” and paid tribute to the key role he had had in driving the “ambitious” free trade deal. It's not hard to imagine, then, the disbelief that enveloped the Turnbull camp this week as it witnessed, from afar, Morrison driving the Indonesian relationship onto the rocky reefs of Middle Eastern politics. Loading Grim outlook If a week is a long time in politics, this one must have felt like an eternity for the Morrison government, with Cyclone Wentworth - Saturday’s crucial byelection -looming over all else.

The catalogue of own goals, blunders and bad management overwhelmed the positive news the government might have otherwise showcased - the best job figures in seven years, and the passage of fast-tracked tax cuts for small to medium businesses. Instead a jaded public were treated to a smorgasbord of “Its OK to be white” nonsense in the Senate, an outbreak of leadership instability in the National Party, confused messages over asylum-seekers on Nauru, a shoddy faux pas by the Environment Minister Melissa Price, and highly damaging leaks of an ASIO document and sensitive communications from the Indonesian Foreign Minister, triggered by Morrison's shock move on Middle Eastern policy. Loading Tuesday’s prime ministerial announcement that Canberra was “considering” following US President Donald Trump’s lead, by moving Australia’s embassy to West Jerusalem and rethinking our support for the Iran nuclear deal, came out of the blue. It was met with almost universal condemnation by foreign policy experts and former diplomats familiar with the intricacies of the region, keenly aware that the contested status of Jerusalem (holy to Muslims, Jews and Christians) is one of the most significant roadblocks to peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

Aping Trump’s Middle Eastern policy would not only put Australia at odds with all other Western security partners and place Canberra in a tiny minority of countries worldwide, experts warned. Bob Bowker, a former Australian ambassador to Egypt, Jordan and Syria, went so far as to caution that “Australian lives and interests” could be at risk. This wasn’t empty talk. On October 15, a highly classified ASIO document warned of possible violence in Gaza and the West Bank and “protest activity” against Australian interests if the government flagged the impending rethink. We know this because the spy agency document surfaced in the Guardian Australia . Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Loading That wasn’t the only damaging leak. In a week replete with embarrassments for the government, Channel Seven aired a number of outraged WhatsApp messages, said to have been sent by Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to her counterpart, Marise Payne. Payne has not denied their authenticity.

“It will be a really big blow” one text warned. “It will slap Indonesia’s face on the Palestine issue. This will affect bilateral relations.” And then a question: “Is this really necessary to do this on Tuesday?” The timing carried a particular sting for Indonesia – home to the world’s largest Muslim population – because it was hosting Palestine’s foreign minister Riyad Al-Maliki in Jakarta when Morrison’s announcement landed. The plight of the Palestinians is keenly felt in Jakarta, and could be a touchstone for Islamist pressure on Jokowi in the run up to Indonesian elections next year. But of course the question "Why Tuesday?" had a clear answer back here: Wentworth.

Liberal candidate Dave Sharma and independent Kerryn Phelps. Credit:Nick Moir The blue-ribbon seat from which Turnbull resigned abruptly after losing the prime ministership has never before slipped from Liberal hands. Turnbull held it with a 17 per cent margin. But his would-be successor, Dave Sharma, is struggling to hold off a determined onslaught by high-profile independent Kerryn Phelps. And if Sharma goes down on Saturday, as senior Liberals fear he might, so does the government’s one-seat majority. ABC election analyst Antony Green says if this happens, it will be “one of the worst defeats for a government in byelection history”. Turnbull was highly popular with locals in the well-heeled electorate, which despite being home to some of Australia’s priciest real estate also skews towards progressive attitudes on social issues and climate change. Loading Out of desperation, it seems, Morrison floated the radical change to Australia’s Middle Eastern policy in order to appeal to the Jewish voters who comprise a significant minority in the seat. And Sharma, who only last year returned from a four-year stint as Australia’s ambassador in Israel, had advocated for the policy shift.

Sharma told Fairfax Media late this week that he only received notice of Morrison’s plans on Monday night – the evening before he and other candidates were due to front a campaign event hosted by the NSW Jewish Board of Deputies. Interestingly, last December Sharma wrote a column for The Australian saying Canberra should “be in no rush to replicate US policy or move the Australian embassy to Jerusalem”. But by May this year, in a piece for The Sydney Morning Herald, he had changed his mind. Why? He says because Trump moved Washington’s Embassy to Jerusalem and “the world hadn’t ended ... Things went on much as normal. So I thought perhaps all this talk of grave consequences was a little overdone. And in fact this can now be used to advance the peace process. And that is still my view.” It's the same argument Morrison has now co-opted, denying that Wentworth was the main trigger for the change of stance. The Prime Minister also claims that some in the party were raising the issue with him within days of him succeeding Turnbull.

Coalition sources confirmed that a group of Liberals had indeed been agitating for the government to look at the relocation following the US move because “Israel is the only functioning democracy in the Middle East, and democracies should stand by each other”. But privately, one MP admitted the undeniable: that Wentworth was the catalyst. “Governments will do dramatic things when their parliamentary majority is at stake - it was worthwhile rolling the dice. A few risks had to be taken.” Labor, having at first cautiously circled the government’s move, was emboldened by the backlash. “Remember when Scott Morrison told us he wore a little lapel badge with a flag on it to remind himself whose side he was on?” opposition spokeswoman for foreign affairs Penny Wong jibed. “Well he should have looked at it before he made this decision.” Labor's treasury spokesman Chris Bowen tweeted merrily" “The two-state solution has been replaced with the one seat solution.” Loading

Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce contributed to the government’s discomfort by spelling out the threat to Australian agricultural exports to the Middle East. “We’ve got to be careful ... Indonesia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain Jordan ... lots of sensitivities there” he explained on Sky News. And if that wasn’t casting enough shade over Sharma’s campaign, Joyce also let it be known he was happy to take over the leadership of the Nationals again should he be called upon to do so. There followed 24 hours of feverish speculation about the fate of current Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack before it was temporarily quelled on Friday. Few Canberra observers believe it will end there; they are bracing for more Nationals leadership ructions in coming days. The outbreak of infighting gave a hollow ring to the government’s claim that a vote for Sharma would be a vote for stability. Loading Sharma’s struggle hasn’t been made any easier by other landmines exploding in Canberra. Monday set the tone with an appalling bungle in the Senate, which saw coalition Senators voting in support of Pauline Hanson’s white supremacist-inspired motion that “it is OK to be white”.

Red-faced ministers rushed to reverse the vote the next day, explaining that it had been an “administrative error” caused by poor office processes failing to pick up the toxic provenance of the words Hanson had put forward. But Defence Minister Christopher Pyne didn’t mince words on Adelaide radio. “Well, look, it was a fiasco,” he said. Environment Minister Melissa Price compounded the government’s woes with what seems, at the very least, to have been an ill-judged interaction with the former president of Kiribati, Anote Tong, in a Canberra restaurant. The Pacific dignitary was dining with Labor Senator Pat Dodson and a group of others when Price wandered over to their table for a chat. According to Dodson’s account of the conversation, she told Tong: “I know why you are here. It is for the cash. For the Pacific it’s always about the cash. I have my chequebook here. How much do you want?”. Price has disputed this account while not providing a definitive version of her own. It was another needless brush-fire for the government to put out. Loading

Other issues have hovered uncomfortably in the background. The latest IPCC report warning that the world is running out of time to avert the worst impacts of climate change landed two weeks ago. That’s allowed Phelps, and Labor’s candidate in Wentworth, Tim Murray, to campaign strongly on the need for climate action, while highlighting the absence of a credible coalition policy following Morrison’s abandonment of Turnbull's National Energy Guarantee. Another bombshell mid-campaign was the leaking of the Ruddock review on religious freedoms. Morrison took some 48 hours to shut down suggestions that the government would preserve a right for religious schools to discriminate against gay students. He is likely to bring a bill before the parliament next week to settle that question but whether gay teachers should be protected as well remains contested inside the Coalition. Labor will try to force the issue, by seeking to amend the Sex Discrimination Act to ensure gay teachers are shielded. Sharma has had additional headwinds to battle in Wentworth. Late this week an email surfaced, smearing Phelps as an HIV sufferer who was being forced to withdraw from the campaign because of illness. Sharma and the Liberal party have condemned it in the strongest terms but whatever the intention of the anonymous author, it seems to have blown back harder against the Liberals than Phelps. And what should have been a solid positive for Sharma, a $2.2 million government grant to upgrade security for Jewish community facilities, turned sour after another “misunderstanding”. President of the Jewish Board of Deputies Lesli Berger had posted a message of gratitude to Sharma on social media, but took umbrage when he found his words quoted on a campaign flyer for the Liberal candidate and insisted it be withdrawn. Sharma’s team say they sought and gained approval from Berger to use the Jewish leader’s words but there was confusion about how limited that re-use was to be.

From a safe distance in Singapore, Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex has tweeted relentlessly against the Liberals throughout the Wentworth campaign. The former prime minister has let it be known that he cannot dictate the behaviour of his 36-year-old son. But regardless, there is mounting anger in Liberal circles that Turnbull senior, who has been out of the country for the duration of the campaign, has not done more to aid the Liberal cause. He has resisted calls to issue a written appeal to Wentworth voters. He has told others he is only doing exactly what he said he would do – staying out of politics. Any show from him, he's argued, will only remind voters of the recent bloodlettting. Sharma says he is not disappointed by the former prime minister’s stand. “I've been very appreciative of the support and encouragement that Malcolm provided me with before I stood for preselection and after I got the nomination,” he told Fairfax Media. “I respect his desire and wish not to get involved in Australian politics . I’m appreciative of whatever I get, but I don’t expect anything more.” Loading Instead, it was another former prime minister, John Howard, who took to the hustings in Wentworth on Thursday, lending some much needed heft to the final days of the Liberal campaign.