11.04am BST

Good morning, one and all, and welcome to our liveblog of this year's Nobel prize ceremony, in which, as is now traditional, we give you our minute-by-minute in-depth analysis of the action at the Swedish Academy until the doors are thrown open and the announcement made. Alas, of course, there is no action until the doors are thrown open, and at that point all the action takes place in Swedish. But bear with us! We'll while away the empty minutes until 1pm CET (midday here) speculating as to which way the Academy will swing, and as soon as this year's laureate is named, we'll give you the result, and whatever links, extracts and so forth we can lay our hands on.

So where are we? We turn, as ever, to the superlative Complete Review, where MA Orthofer's reading of the Nobel betting patterns is legendary. So far this morning, though, he's not committing himself; betting, he says, has "not proven very revealing this year"; there's been little movement in the odds over the last 48 hours. Haruki Murakami remains in the lead on an "absolutely ridiculous" 6/4, with Péter Nádas at a "hardly credible" 5/2.

On our own open thread, there's support for Murakami (including a poem in his favour from CT Glasgow), Don Delillo, Margaret Atwood, Alice Munro and that oft-lamented bridesmaid of the Nobel, Philip Roth (the last American to win the prize was Toni Morrison in 1993). My own feeling (which has never once proven accurate when it comes to the Nobel, so isn't an especially useful barometer) is that we need to look outside of Europe for this year's winner; the Academy has given the award to a European seven times in the last decade, so it seems unlikely that they'd do so again. Whether North America will be enough of a jump remains to be seen.

If you're in a position to do so, you can watch the live stream of the announcement on the Nobel website, here. If not, stick with us: we'll give you the news as soon as we have it.