LONDON — Some U.K. lawmakers think they’ve found a way to reduce British smoking deaths: Brexit.

Large numbers of British cigarette smokers will switch to vaping once the U.K. leaves the bloc, they argue, if looser British tobacco laws replace tighter EU limits on nicotine advertising and packaging.

Tobacco laws appear likely to mark one of the U.K.'s first post-Brexit breaks with EU law.

The House of Commons’ science and technology committee recommended a review of tobacco legislation last year, to create a “more risk-proportionate regulatory environment.” The government’s Department of Health and Social Care agreed, saying it would look to “sensibly deregulate without harming public health” after Brexit.

Packaging for e-cigarettes currently carries tobacco-like warnings and, in some cases, a large “hazard” symbol.

The signals from London are a coup for the rapidly growing vaping sector in the U.K., whose manufacturers claim their products can significantly reduce the toll from smoking-related disease in England, which kills at least 79,000 annually.

Not all U.K. policymakers are on board. Though lawmakers and U.K. Chief Medical Officer Sally Davies agree that vaping products are far less risky than smoking, she recently advocated tightening rules on vaping ads and vaping in public.

With Brexit still pending, the Department of Health and Social Care highlighted that existing EU rules for e-cigarettes still apply.

“There are strict rules in place to prevent tobacco companies from promoting their products — including e-cigarettes,” a spokesperson said in a statement. “We take the unlawful promotion of tobacco and other nicotine inhaling products very seriously and expect any organization found to be flouting the rules to be investigated.”

Lesser of two evils?

Viewed suspiciously in many countries like Norway, and banned in several others including Thailand, e-cigarettes have been embraced as a quit-smoking tool in mainstream British public health policy.

A 2014-2015 investigation by the public health agency Public Health England comparing health risks from vaping versus smoking found electronic cigarettes to be significantly less harmful.

Most of the chemicals that cause smoking-related disease are absent in e-cigarettes, and the chemicals that are present pose little danger, the study noted. Based on the findings, the agency recommended downshifting to e-cigarettes to help smokers quit.

The move was early evidence the U.K. could break with EU regulators on vaping.

The following year,EU countries, including the U.K., implemented the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), which strictly limited the potency of e-cigarettes and contained strict rules on advertising and packaging.

E-cigarette makers say that hurts public health.

“The regulatory dog’s dinner that we seem to have now blights the lives of about 3 million vapers in the U.K. and harms smokers who might otherwise decide to switch to safer products,” said Sarah Jakes, chair of the New Nicotine Alliance, during a parliamentary hearing last year. “This country can do better in harm reduction, and Brexit is probably the perfect opportunity to do so.”

During an evidence hearing last year, then-Public Health Minister Steve Brine would only say that the existing laws would be reviewed.

Packaging for e-cigarettes currently carries tobacco-like warnings and, in some cases, a large “hazard” symbol. Other EU restrictions include nicotine strength, bottle size and the dimensions of the tank in which the vapor is produced.

“The packaging restrictions imposed on vaping products by TPD are more stringent than those for many hazardous products, including bleach,” said Dan Marchant, board member of the U.K. Vaping Industry Association (UKVIA) and co-owner of online retailer Vape Club.

Changing behavior

The U.K. government first mooted the idea of reassessing the Tobacco Products Directive, “including as it applies to e-cigarettes,” two years ago.

“The U.K.’s exit provides opportunity to alter the legislative provisions to provide for improved health outcomes within the U.K. context,” the Department of Health said in its July 2017 Tobacco Control Plan, “Towards a Smokefree Generation.”

Private manufacturers argue that relaxing tobacco advertising rules would allow them to share scientifically sound harm reduction information, encouraging cigarette smokers to switch.

While U.K. laws place significant restrictions on health claims, John Dunne, director of UKVIA, told the parliamentary committee that all aspects of advertising should be looked at post Brexit.

“The public health message is not getting out there in an efficient and effective manner,” said Dunne. “More people think that vaping is just as bad as, if not worse than, smoking than they did four or five years ago.”

In July 2018, the U.K. parliament’s science and technology committee recommended regulatory divergence from the EU for e-cigarettes. “Public Health England says this is about 10 times less risky than smoking,” said Norman Lamb, a Liberal Democrat MP and the committee’s chair. “And yet people selling vaping products aren’t even able to say what [the agency] says about their product.”

He added that EU limits on nicotine content for vape pens should also be relaxed, to help attract heavy smokers to vaping.

“Whatever restriction you place that will have the effect of reducing the attractiveness of vaping, and reducing sales and take-up, the inevitable consequence of this restriction is that a portion of smokers will not give up smoking,” Lamb said.

UKVIA’s Marchant said EU regulations do not reflect smokers’ changing behavior. “It is time these restrictions were amended to reflect the evidence, rather than some imaginary concerns of the EU Commission,” he said.

People make policy

What shape exactly Britain’s vaping laws will take post-Brexit will depend on who is in charge.

During an evidence hearing last year, then Public Health Minister Steve Brine would only say that the existing laws would be reviewed, as required under the U.K.’s current Tobacco Control Plan.

He agreed with a statement from Health Secretary Matt Hancock that Britain “can be more ambitious for health improvement and public health, not less, when we leave the EU.” But he didn’t explain what that might mean for vaping laws.

The U.K.'s chief medical officer called for greater advertising restrictions on nicotine products and a ban on vaping in public.

Davies, the U.K.’s chief medical officer, opposes relaxing e-cigarette regulations and believes e-cigarettes should be treated as tobacco products. During a parliamentary hearing in June she said she found it “offensive” to see big billboards portraying vaping as “cool” to younger people, and expressed suspicion over recent moves by Big Tobacco to buy up vaping companies, including Juul.

“Now, why would they do that? They must be going to proselytize and push them,” she said.

Davies called for greater advertising restrictions on nicotine products and a ban on vaping in public.

Davies is set to quit her role later this year. Her successor Chris Whitty, whose position on vaping is not yet known, is scheduled to take over as chief medical officer in the fall.

This article is part of the special report: The Big Vaping Dilemma.

This article is part of POLITICO’s premium policy service: Pro Health Care. From drug pricing, EMA, vaccines, pharma and more, our specialized journalists keep you on top of the topics driving the health care policy agenda. Email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.