Ontario’s first wave of COVID-19 is expected to peak this week as the count of confirmed and probable cases approached the 8,500 mark on Monday.

That’s a tenfold increase in the four weeks since physical distancing and stay-at-home measures began in an effort to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus and prevent hospitals from being swamped.

“Generally speaking, the number of new cases each day has been going down slightly,” Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer, told reporters on a teleconference Monday afternoon.

She cited information from epidemiologists using computer modelling to project the path of the illness, which is expected to subside in similar manner to the way it has ramped up and depends on protective measures staying in place.

“After a peak, usually things go down … the epidemic curve usually is symmetrical which means there will still be cases but we’ll be on the down side,” Yaffe added.

“That does give me a glimmer of hope, but with some caution built in.”

Premier Doug Ford said he will be very careful when medical experts signal it’s safe to start gradually easing restrictions.

“My biggest fear is we get another wave and it hits us,” he told reporters.

A Star compilation of the latest reports from health units across the province as of 5 p.m. Monday indicated an increase of 465 cases or 5.8 per cent to 8,486 with a 343 dead, up 23 from Sunday.

Yaffe said any loosening of restrictions “will have to be done very carefully” and it’s hard to say when the time will be right.

“Right now people are staying at home, people are not contacting closely with other people. But if you open it up too quickly the virus is still around and people will get it,” she said.

Ministry of Health statistics gathered as of 4 p.m. Monday pointed to more outbreaks in long-term care homes, bringing the new total to 89, with outbreaks in 24 hospitals as well.

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There were at least 741 cases in nursing homes and at least 120 deaths to date as the sector continues to be hit hard with residents living in close quarters.

More than 430 nursing home staff have been infected with COVID-19, almost half the 954 health care workers who have contracted the new coronavirus thus far.

A total of 954 coronavirus patients have been admitted to Ontario hospitals. As of Sunday afternoon, there were still 760 hospitalized, including 263 in intensive care with 203 of them on ventilators to breathe.

Overall, about half the known COVID-19 cases in Ontario are in the Greater Toronto Area, and 3,359 people in total have recovered.

It’s not known how many others have been infected with the virus since the first case was revealed in late January because people with mild symptoms have not been tested, meaning there are likely thousands more people with the coronavirus who have gone undetected.