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This article was published 18/12/2015 (1741 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Opinion

Manitoba’s New Democratic Party spent 16 years building itself into a formidable political force.

The party won four straight majority governments and increased its seat totals in every election since 1999, despite the fact the number of Manitobans who cast ballots in each of the past four elections remained unchanged around the 200,000-vote mark during the past three elections.

But four months before Manitobans go the polls, the NDP looks incredibly vulnerable. It has trailed the Progressive Conservatives by double-digit margins in Probe Research polls for nearly two years. NDP Leader Greg Selinger barely survived a difficult and unprecedented challenge to his leadership earlier this year. The third-place Liberals are back from the political dead and appear to be reinvigorated under a new leader, Rana Bokhari, and a new Liberal government in Ottawa.

Given the recent changes in government on Parliament Hill and at Winnipeg city hall, there is a growing sense that change is in the air. But what does that change look like at this point? Although the Progressive Conservatives are out in front by a significant margin, the race for seats in Winnipeg has become even more competitive as the Liberals, PCs and NDP battle for suburban constituencies.

The outcome of the April election is likely to be decided by a relatively small but influential group of voters: former NDP supporters who have been shaken loose from their previous partisan attachment by the events on Broadway during the past couple of years.

Data from nine quarterly Probe Research polls taken from September 2013 to September 2015 show, on average, only 55 per cent of the people who voted for the NDP in 2011 would do so again in the next provincial election.

Typically, the other two parties retain anywhere from 75 to 80 per cent of their vote between elections, so the group of voters that all three parties will be targeting in the next few months is the large group of voters who cast a ballot for an NDP candidate in the past, but are having second thoughts about doing so again.

Not surprisingly, the Liberals are the biggest beneficiary among these ex-NDP supporters, with an average of 14 per cent in these nine polls indicating they would vote for a Liberal candidate in their constituency. On average, one in 10 ex-NDP voters now prefers the PCs, with five per cent currently opting for the provincial Green party.

But the big number that should stand out is this: on average, 17 per cent of ex-NDP supporters are undecided. This is a much higher share of undecided voters than those who voted for other parties in the past.

These undecided former NDP voters are the key to the next election. If the NDP can convince them to hold their noses and vote NDP again to prevent a Progressive Conservative government, they have a shot at being competitive.

If the Progressive Conservatives can convince them "change for the better" isn’t scary, it will consolidate their lead and help them form a strong majority government with significant representation in Winnipeg. If the Liberals can convince them to take a risk on a party that is typically the afterthought of Manitoba politics, the Liberals could pick up a number of seats and potentially hold the balance of power in a minority legislature.

When those who voted NDP in 2011 are compared with existing NDP supporters, some fascinating differences arise. For instance, in December 2014 — right as the NDP mutiny was in full swing — two-thirds of current NDP supporters (67 per cent) approved of Greg Selinger’s performance as party leader. When you look at the broader universe of those who voted NDP in 2011, the figure drops to 43 per cent — a telling sign that the majority of those who voted NDP last time but are considering other options today would rather have someone else leading the NDP.

When Manitobans were asked in March 2015 whether the New Democrats made the right choice in keeping Selinger as leader, 61 per cent of current NDP supporters agreed compared to 27 per cent who disagreed. However, among those who voted for the NDP in 2011, there was an even split — 41 per cent said the party made the right choice, 40 per cent felt it was the wrong choice.

Again, the defection of ex-NDP supporters to other parties or to the undecided column suggests it will be difficult for a party led by Selinger to woo these disgruntled voters back to the NDP fold.

But stranger things have happened, especially as the NDP attempts to convince voters that Brian Pallister and the PCs will privatize everything and slash government spending to the bone.

Leading up to April 19, these voters can expect to be hit with an increasing array of competing messages and claims about the merits of the Progressive Conservatives, New Democrats and Liberals. Which is as it should be, as these voters hold the fate of all three parties and their leaders in their hands.

Curtis Brown is the vice-president of Probe Research Inc., a Winnipeg-based public opinion firm. His views are his own.

curtis@probe-research.com

Twitter: @curtisatprobe