The Kurdistan Regional Government's efforts to export its own oil, against the wishes of the Iraqi and U.S. governments, saw a significant achievement last week: Reuters reported Thursday that a tanker carrying more than $100 million of crude oil was headed for Galveston, Texas. But just days later, on Monday night, a U.S. judge sided with an Iraqi Oil Ministry complaint that the KRG had "misappropriated" the one million barrels, and she ordered their seizure.

Prior to the court order, an Obama administration official had finessed the embarrassing predicament, clarifying that the government had never banned private companies from purchasing Kurdish oil. But the United States' attempts to stem the autonomous flow of Kurdish oil have been well documented, in keeping with their goal of a unified Iraq. In fact, the administration's opposition to Kurdistan’s oil sales will push the Kurds toward an independence bid. To understand why, we must look back several weeks.

When a private company in Israel purchased Kurdish oil in late June, many believed it was only a matter of time before the greater market for Kurdish oil broke open. Kurdish officials spoke with confidence about the impending sale of other shipments, and discussed the process for obtaining and disbursing the funds deposited in Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank, an account established with the express purpose of granting the KRG—and not Baghdad—authority over its own oil revenues.

Yet, by mid-July, Rudaw—Kurdistan’s largest media outlet—reported that Turkey had backtracked, insisting on a deal between Erbil and Baghdad over revenue-sharing before Halkbank would release the money. With major financial disputes over budget allocations, provision of services regionally and nationally, and reparations for Saddam-era crimes, the chasm between the respective positions has never been wider. A deal in the near term is nearly unthinkable.

U.S. pressure almost certainly factored into Turkey’s return to Solomonic even-handedness on Kurdish oil. U.S. diplomats have engaged actively with governments linked to Kurdish oil purchases, not-so-gently reminding them of potential exposure to Baghdad-initiated international trade arbitration.