Could Australia end up in stalemate? It's less likely here than in Spain, where MPs are elected by proportional representation, so minor parties win a bigger share of the seats. But if the Coalition and Labor both rule out forming minority governments or alliances with crossbenchers, the only alternative could be a second election. Voters could head to the polls sooner rather than later. Credit:Helen Nezdropa In the old Parliament, the Coalition had 90 of the 150 seats, Labor 55, and the crossbenches five. Redistributions since and Clive Palmer's withdrawal have effectively altered the status quo to Coalition 89, Labor 57, others four. To have a majority, either side must win 76 seats. For the Coalition, that means it must lose no more than 13 seats. For Labor, it must win 19 seats. That's some gap, and it would increase if the Greens, independents or minor parties make gains on July 2. How do the punters see it? At this early stage, Sportsbet's seat-by-seat odds show they think Labor will win 11 seats from the Coalition. That implies a 78-68-4 outcome, re-electing the Turnbull government with a six-seat majority.

But the punters are not always right. Last time they called 12 seats wrong - and in nine of those they backed the Coalition to win seats it lost. They picked only two of the five victories by crossbenchers. They might be making the same mistakes now. First, the polls are less optimistic for the Coalition than the punters. For example, the punters tip the Coalition to hold Brisbane, Forde and Bonner, yet on the swings the polls report in Queensland, all three would fall. The punters tip Labor to win just eight of the 30 seats in Queensland, yet the polls give it up to 49 per cent of the state's two-party vote. The punters think Labor will gain Eden-Monaro and Macarthur in NSW (as well as gaining Barton, Dobell and Paterson from the redistribution); Deakin in Victoria; Capricornia and Petrie in Queensland; Hasluck, Swan and the new seat of Burt in Western Australia; Hindmarsh in South Australia; Lyons in Tasmania; and Solomon, the Darwin seat. Second, Sportsbet estimates that the 17 next closest contests would all be in seats held by the Coalition. It has a lot of seats at risk. By contrast, punters expect it to take no seats from Labor: its best prospects are seen as a one in three chance in the territory's outback seat of Lingiari, and less than that in McEwen, on Melbourne's northern fringe. But in inner northern Melbourne, the punters might be erring in Labor's favour. They give the Greens at best a one in three chance of taking Batman, less than that in Anthony Albanese's seat of Grayndler, and barely a one in five chance in the other seat in Melbourne's inner north, Wills.

Yet where the Liberals run third behind Labor and the Greens, Liberal preferences will usually decide the winner. And it's anyone's guess where they will go. In 2013, they went to Labor, which gave it easy wins in Batman (by 10.6 per cent) and Wills (15.2 per cent). But in 2010, they went to the Greens. Had Liberal voters directed preferences in 2013 as they did in 2010, the Greens would have won Batman by 0.4 per cent, and lost Wills by just 3 per cent. If the Liberals direct preferences their way in 2016, the Greens could win one or both seats. It's a different story in NSW. The Greens are much weaker, and to win Grayndler or Sydney, they would need good swings to top the Liberals, and then a very tight flow of Liberal preferences. The punters think three of the four crossbenchers are safe: Adam Bandt in Melbourne, Andrew Wilkie in Denison, and Bob Katter in Kennedy. They expect Cathy McGowan to retain Indi, beating former Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella into third place. But they rate Barnaby Joyce as 2-1 on to hold New England against former member Tony Windsor. A hung Parliament is a real possibility. Our leaders should keep their options open.