by Aaron Schatz

As usual after the Conference Championship games, we're not going to bother with the full 32-team table of weighted DVOA ratings, since there are only two teams left and most teams haven't played for three weeks. Instead, let's just look at the two remaining teams, Seattle and Denver. As you may remember from the end of the season, Seattle and Denver are the first teams to ever rank 1-2 in DVOA for two straight seasons, going back to 1989. Some other interesting notes about the rarity of a Super Bowl that matches the two best teams in the league:

This will be the first Super Bowl ever to match the No. 1 offense by DVOA against the No. 1 defense by DVOA.

This will be only the third time that the top two teams in DVOA will meet in the Super Bowl. This also happened in 1997 (Packers-Broncos) and 2002 (Buccaneers-Raiders).

It will also be only the fourth time that the Super Bowl matches the top team in DVOA from each conference. This also happened in 1997, 2002, and 1991 (Redskins-Bills).

Here's a look at both teams by weighted DVOA, as well as a look at total DVOA including both the regular season and the playoffs.

TEAM DVOA RANK OFF

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEF

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK DEN (DVOA through Week 20) 33.1% 2 32.8% 1 -0.6% 14 -0.3% 18 DEN (WEI DVOA through Week 20) 28.2% 4 29.6% 3 -4.2% 13 -5.6% 26 SEA (DVOA through Week 20) 38.6% 1 7.5% 11 -25.2% 1 5.9% 5 SEA (WEI DVOA through Week 20) 46.4% 1 6.6% 9 -29.3% 1 10.5% 4

Here are the ratings for the Conference Championship games. The DVOA ratings for the NFC Championship game are a little surprisingly one-sided given how the game ended. It's not even about the fumble luck; while San Francisco was lucky on fumble recoveries early, the game ended up with each team fumbling three times, recovering two and losing one. It isn't about the red zone, either; while San Francisco was not particularly good in the red zone, Seattle didn't have a single play in the red zone that qualified as a "success" by Football Outsiders standards. The main difference was special teams and the Colin Kaepernick interceptions.



DVOA (with opponent adjustments) TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST DEN 48% 50% 7% 5% NE 29% 35% 16% 10% SEA 33% -25% -38% 20% SF 0% -9% -19% -10% VOAf (no opponent adjustments) TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST DEN 45% 57% 18% 5% NE -4% 30% 44% 10% SEA 19% -28% -28% 20% SF -35% -33% -8% -10%

Our playoff odds report formula gives Seattle a 58.3 percent chance of winning Super Bowl XLVIII.

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each week in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for the Conference Championships:

NaVorro Bowman, ILB, SF (Limited Edition): We're sending the injured Bowman out on top with this 99 OVR Limited Edition. Bowman had nine Stops including three plays to prevent a conversion on third down.

We're sending the injured Bowman out on top with this 99 OVR Limited Edition. Bowman had nine Stops including three plays to prevent a conversion on third down. Malcolm Smith, OLB, SEA: Game-winning interception plus four run tackles for an average gain of 1.8 yards.

Game-winning interception plus four run tackles for an average gain of 1.8 yards. Louis Vasquez, RG, DEN: Allowed no hurries, hits or sacks.

(Ed. Note: Whoops, I had mistakenly noted that Bowman was the first player to get two FO cards in Madden. Apparently, we also did Luke Kuechly twice.)