The latest polling shows Tony Windsor could give the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, a run for his money in the New South Wales seat of New England.

The former independent MP declared on Thursday that he would stand for New England in this year’s election on “issues of the future”.

“It’s not about sending Barnaby Joyce a message,” Windsor said. “It’s about winning the seat. I am serious.”

ReachTel polling obtained by Fairfax Media shows support for Joyce stands at 43.1%, compared to Windsor’s 38%.

While Windsor is trailing, his vote is likely to be boosted by strong preference flows from Labor and Greens voters, which together account for another 10.5%, giving him a reasonable chance of toppling Joyce if a vote was held now.

Even before Windsor announced he would run, Joyce had told the ABC that Windsor was part of the “Labor Green independent alliance”.

“It’s a democracy and I welcome any person and there will be a number of independent candidates, Mr Windsor’s one and that’s his choice,” Joyce said.

“I’ve been overwhelmed by the support that I’m getting. So if that’s the battle we have then I look forward to it.”

Australian Associated Press contributed to this report