In the fog of Syria’s war, one thing appears clear: Russia is running rings around the US and its allies, militarily and diplomatically. While Washington clings to hopes of a negotiated settlement, Vladimir Putin is changing facts on the ground, just as he did in Ukraine in 2014.

It’s Putin’s game. And, so far, he’s winning.

When Russia’s president piled into the conflict last autumn in support of Bashar al-Assad, Barack Obama said a “quagmire” awaited him. The opposite has happened.

Russia’s military campaign has gradually taken off. Its air power has given Assad’s forces the edge. An effective coalition with Iranian, Lebanese and Iraq Shia militias has been forged on the ground.

A lightning offensive this month in the area around Aleppo in the north took anti-Assad rebels by surprise, severing a vital supply route to the city. More than 500 people have been killed by Russian airstrikes and 50,000 have fled towards the Turkish border, exacerbating the refugee crisis.

A bullish Putin plainly believes that given time, he can score decisive victories, ensuring the regime’s survival. In the meantime, his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, keeps up the appearance of genuine diplomatic engagement.

Lavrov was to hold talks with his US counterpart, John Kerry, in Munich on Thursday in a bid to keep the Geneva peace process alive. But Kerry – handicapped by Obama’s reluctance to increase US military involvement, lacking a credible alternative strategy and under fire from allies – is outgunned. His predicament has brought warnings in Washington of a looming “uncontrollable disaster”.

Syrian pro-government forces in a destroyed building in the strategic town of Salma after its recapture last month. Photograph: Youssef Karwashan/AFP/Getty Images

Russia’s gains are already stacking up. Desperate to get a deal, Kerry, in deference to Moscow, has all but dropped his previous insistence that Assad must stand down. He has muted US criticism of Russia’s preference for attacking anti-Assad rebels rather than Islamic State jihadis.

The outgoing French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, suggested this week that the US lacked commitment. Turkish leaders are more outspoken. They accuse Kerry of naivety over Putin’s intentions. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, said US mistakes were creating a “sea of blood” and Russia was engaged in “ethnic cleansing” and “genocide”.

Ankara, at odds with Moscow over airspace violations, is incensed by its developing military cooperation with Syrian Kurdish parties, whom Turkey regards as terrorists. On Wednesday, rebel-held Menagh airbase fell to a Kurdish assault supported by Russian aerial bombing. An infuriated Erdoğan hinted again at cross-border Turkish military intervention.

As during the Ukraine crisis, Putin has proven skilful in keeping his opponents off balance. Lavrov’s offer of a 1 March ceasefire looks, on the face of it, like an answer to Kerry’s prayers. It suggests to the outside world that Russia is behaving reasonably. In reality, such a plan, if accepted, could allow it time to clinch a decisive victory.



Muddying more pools, Russian spokesmen say its failure to attack Isis targets is the result of a US refusal to share intelligence. Moscow has also claimed US planes, not Russian ones, are bombing Aleppo.

American inaction and indecision have led Syrian rebel leaders to complain they are being abandoned. This in turn has made a successful resumption of the Geneva talks on 25 February less likely.

Putin’s wider strategic objectives are served by his Syria campaign. In the increasing flow of refugees heading north, Putin – and Assad – have found a weapon they can use to frighten, weaken and divide the EU and Nato, a long-standing Russian aim. The Syria intervention is also helping re-establish Russia as an influential player in the Middle East, even as US clout perceptibly declines.

If, as many expect, it proves impossible to advance the Geneva process amid a continuing welter of violence, Obama and Kerry may be forced to shift to “plan B”. But nobody, possibly including them, seems to know what this is.

The US military remains fixated on fighting Isis, not winning the wider war. The unlikely idea of deploying Saudi troops in Syria, floated this week by the US defence secretary, Ash Carter, is a measure of the risk-averse Obama administration’s cluelessness.

Putin’s game is not yet won. But he surely cannot believe his luck.