Boehner's position is shaped by both external and internal politics. Boehner's big bet: Obama will cave

House Speaker John Boehner has dug in.

If the let-the-cuts-happen approach on the sequester seems risky — especially with President Barack Obama blaming Republicans for everything from kids not getting vaccines to long lines at the airport — the alternative for Boehner is worse.


Jump-start negotiations with Obama, and he would be slammed for engaging in out-of-sight, secret talks with a president his party doesn’t trust. Raise taxes, and Boehner’s courting trouble in his conference and endangering his speakership. Both are simply nonstarters.

( Also on POLITICO: Graham: Sequester ‘going to happen’)

Unlike previous fiscal fights, House Republicans feel like they are in a good political position on this one.

They passed a bill last Congress that replaced the sequester cuts, and are considering another bill in the coming weeks that would do the same. They are standing firm against more tax increases — all poll-tested positions.

Leading Republicans are betting — perhaps badly — that the $85 billion in sequester cuts set to take effect on Friday won’t tank markets and the public won’t immediately feel the impact.

( Also on POLITICO: House Republican leadership on sequestration: 'False choice')

And, for once, the GOP is buffeted by its unpopularity: House Republicans kept their majority with mid-teen approval ratings after two years of political warfare. They aren’t spooked that their numbers will move any lower.

So Boehner’s posture is a calculated risk. The speaker hopes Obama will be seen as constantly campaigning, exaggerating the sequester’s impact — and that eventually the president will be forced back to the bargaining table when the Republicans prove they won’t budge. It’s a message Boehner will take to the “CBS Evening News” on Tuesday, when he is interviewed by Scott Pelley.

( Also on POLITICO: Boehner: Obama using troops as 'props')

“The president says we have to have another tax increase in order to avoid the sequester,” Boehner said during a six-minute press availability Monday. “Well, Mr. President, you got your tax increase. It’s time to cut spending here in Washington.”

Of course, it’s easy to see the flip side of Boehner’s strategy. In Democrats’ view, he has little room to maneuver: no revenue, only spending cuts.

Also, the position Boehner has staked out sets up a scenario in which the House will be wooed to accept a potential bipartisan Senate compromise.

But for now, Boehner’s thinking, as described by those close to him and involved in Republican strategy, is multifaceted and represents not only external political calculations but sensitivity to the internal politics of his tax-obsessed conference.

The speaker agreed to a tax hike just a few months ago — days later, 12 of his Republican colleagues voted against his reelection as speaker. Sure, aides realize that they will get pressured privately by a handful of Republicans to accept tax increases to head off the sequester, but such pleas won’t move Boehner. Starting off this new session of Congress by hiking taxes again would be akin to political suicide for the Ohio Republican.

Still, Republicans expect they’ll find a way out. Top aides and lawmakers say that, if they have their way, the across-the-board slashes will eventually be replaced with other cuts, but that might not happen until late spring or summer. Republicans are aiming for an eventual package that will include a hefty dose of spending cuts and reforms like a change to calculating government benefits called chained CPI and closing a few tax loopholes.

Boehner can take this hard-line approach because many Republicans don’t fear the immediate fallout of cuts, which will hit the Pentagon and other government agencies at some point this spring. Republicans don’t think the markets will plummet — or even fall significantly — as a result of the cuts, nor are they concerned about political pressure back home.

“I accept the blame, but give me the credit for finally having had the strength to provide some savings for the American people because everyone gets it,” Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Texas) said. “Our debt is unsustainable.”

Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers, a close Boehner ally from Columbus, said that when he was passing through security in the Buckeye State on Monday, a TSA agent told him to “stand strong” and not cave on the spending cuts.

“I think our position is simple and understandable … Obama got his tax increases in December, and now it’s time to cut,” Stivers said. “He wanted a balanced approach, let’s get him to that balance he asked for. It’s that simple. The American people understand that.”

Stivers added that Boehner is “right where he needs to be.”

“To the extent that it doesn’t work out, it’s not because he is not positioning himself correctly or we’re in the wrong place or any of that stuff,” he added.

There are also political positives in prolonging this fight for Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Long fiscal fights will keep Obama from muscling gun, immigration and climate change legislation through Congress — battles that are sure to expose fissures among House Republicans, and result in political victory for the president.

Of course, all of this depends on the impact of the cuts, which is unpredictable. If the fallout is worse than expected, Washington might snap into action. Capitol Hill sources expect Obama to call a White House meeting this week.

There are many in House GOP leadership who think the sequester could get resolved alongside government funding in the continuing resolution in March. But even that possibility is slippery because then Republicans will have to navigate a fight over how they rework the sequester while they’re squeezing through the critical stop-gap funding for government agencies known as the CR.

In the meantime, the Senate will do what Boehner has been asking for months — move a bill to blunt the cuts by voting on competing plans to avert the sequester. Both plans are expected to fail to clear an expected 60-vote threshold for passage.

The Democratic plan is bankrolled mainly by a tax hike on millionaires. But Republicans are weighing several options, and most of the attention is focused on legislation that would give Obama administration officials more discretion to implement the cuts as they see fit — an approach that mirrors the efforts of House Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers (R-Ky.). GOP proponents of that plan believe that it would make it harder for the administration to make the case that the cuts would gut food safety inspectors, air traffic controllers and other vital federal employees and programs.

But some Republicans are skeptical, including Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. And Senate Republicans plan to begin to hammer out their tactics in a closed-door party lunch on Tuesday.

Inside of House Republican leadership, dealing with the sequester has taken a back seat. More important for them is culling support for three pieces of upcoming legislation: the Violence Against Women Act, Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget and the CR. All three of those will have difficulty passing the chamber.

Manu Raju contributed to this report.