With Columbus Day on deck next Monday, United Artists Releasing is taking full advantage of the calendar by opening The Addams Family this weekend in hopes of benefiting from strong family business and a stronger-than-typical Sunday hold. In fact, it could be poised for a semi-breakout based on our most recent models.

The existing IP and familiarity among parents has become a bigger driver than once expected in preliminary forecasts as pre-sales trends are considerably stronger than comparable animated fare — including the recent Abominable, which debuted in healthy fashion but hasn’t satiated the relative demand for family-driven animated options created by a lack of them since summer ended. A significant 3D push is also contributing to improved forecasts as the format can still manage to attract the target kiddie audience.

At this stage, it’s increasingly likely that Addams will upset Gemini Man as the top opener this weekend. Ang Lee’s sci-fi actioner is being met with weaker-than-expected reviews, softening expectations despite Will Smith’s resurgence to box office prowess in Aladdin earlier this year and hype around this film’s visual effects. In its arsenal, though, is an IMAX release which should help boost the average ticket price.

The secondary element in declining expectations for Gemini Man is Joker‘s early success among adult moviegoers. Although critics were somewhat divided ahead of release, the film’s 90 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes — and early trends of strong daily holds — indicate the film might not be as front-loaded as most in the industry expected. A second weekend north of $40 million appears likely, which will probably be enough to secure the top position again.

Opening Weekend Ranges

The Addams Family ($27 – 32 million)

($27 – 32 million) Gemini Man ($19 – 24 million)

($19 – 24 million) Jexi (under $5 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will post between a 3 percent decline and 2 percent increase from the same frame last year. That weekend generated $126.1 million as Venom and A Star Is Born continued to dominate the market ahead of debuts by First Man, Goosebumps 2, and Bad Times at the El Royale.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 13 % Change from Last Wknd Joker Warner Bros. $43,000,000 $172,400,000 -55% The Addams Family (2019) United Artists Releasing $28,500,000 $28,500,000 NEW Gemini Man Paramount $22,800,000 $22,800,000 NEW Abominable Universal $6,800,000 $47,800,000 -43% Downton Abbey Focus Features $4,500,000 $82,300,000 -44%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday

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