If you think there will be a bounce then you have to let the winning stocks tell you that the bounce is for real.

Me? I want to watch the VIX before I even play the game. The VIX is spiking which means that those who are still holding on to this ridiculous game of shorting it will have to feel the lash.

Then after the lash you have to look for the usual stocks that everyone's been coming to, to let you know if it is even worth trying to buy. Most people will be heavily influenced by the selling and want to sell themselves. Natural. Many stocks that have been moving up or acting better of late will be tossed out but the primary selling will be targeted toward the internationals with big Chinese exposure of any way shape or form. Nike (NKE) ...Apple (AAPL) ...you get it.

There is a long-held belief that means you should short the retailers but the Chinese have been so afraid of their own shadow on this issue that not a lot of clothing really comes from there any more, dollar stores excluded (and Dollar Tree (DLTR) reports this morning). There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Walmart (WMT) right now but if you are selling it or Target (TGT) because of China that's not much of an intellectual trade.

Which brings me to what really matters, the invincibles: the semis, Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) .

This is THE group to watch. You want to see if Lam (LRCX) , which just spoke yesterday, gives up much of its nine point gain. You want to see if Micron (MU) can repeal some of its gigantic move. Watch Intel (INTC) . Check out Western Digital (WDC) . People have been clamoring to get into these. There's so much hot money in them. They are the places to go.

There's only one problem, a problem that has always been difficult for anyone who trades the market or times investments: it's always early, too early. The first move up in Amazon is probably a false one. Same with Netflix. There will be lots of VIX bloodshed spilled before you can get something worth holding on to. You will want to move too soon not thinking wow, I have to get through the margin hour of 1 to 2 and then I have to get to the 2:45 p.m. point of pain or departure that I have chronicled here many times and then there's the 3:30 VIX selloff and the end of the buybacks at 3:40.

All of those are points that can matter.

So the first move, the first buy?

As is so often the case, won't necessarily be your last.

It's a long session.