Philosopher Malcolm Gladwell once said, “People are experience rich and theory poor. People who are busy doing things — as opposed to people who are busy sitting around, like me, reading and having coffee in coffee shops — don’t have opportunities to kind of collect and organize their experiences and make sense of them.” Donadio, Rachel (2006, Feb. 5). The Gladwell Effect

That is the job of the fantasy football analyst, to make sense of all the experiences for those people who are busy doing things. The dynasty season is in full effect but the casual redraft fantasy football player does not start preparing for the 2017 season until mid-summer. For those “early birds” that are preparing now, consider this article your official fantasy “worm.”

One of Gladwell’s best-selling books is entitled The Tipping Point, where he defined the title phrase as “that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire.” (Gladwell.com) Every season there are unseen tipping points in fantasy football, but can they be identified before they occur? If so, this information will provide the savvy owner with a distinct advantage over his league competition.

Here are the 2017 Fantasy Football Tipping Points which will provide the opportunity to properly maximize value or minimize loss on the way to a fantasy championship.

Complete a mock draft in minutes with our free Draft Simulator >>

2017 Fantasy Football Tipping Points

Chapter One: Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth

Fantasy Player: Brandin Cooks

Tipping Point Rationale: Can you name the last time a New England Patriots player finished top 12 in total wide receiver fantasy points in PPR formats?

The answer is Wes Welker in 2012.

The Patriots’ prolific offense has annually produced huge fantasy numbers for quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski (when healthy). For the New England wide receiver positions, however, not as much.

The Patriots leading receiver in each of the last four seasons has been Julian Edelman. A quick glance at his statistics perfectly illustrates the New England fantasy conundrum.

YEAR TEAM G GS RECPT REYD REAVG RELG RETD RUATT RUYD RUAVG RULG RUTD 2016 NE 16 13 98 1106 11.29 77 3 12 57 4.75 9 0 2015 NE 9 9 61 692 11.34 59 7 3 23 7.67 12 0 2014 NE 14 13 92 972 10.57 69 4 10 94 9.4 25 0 2013 NE 16 11 105 1056 10.06 44 6 2 11 5.5 7 0



We see a lot of catches, but not many touchdowns. The reasons are twofold.

First, when New England does throw in the red zone, it is usually toward tight end Rob Gronkowski. Secondly, the Patriots prefer to run the ball close to the goal line. Last season, running back LeGarrette Blount had 68 red zone rushing attempts, 15 more than the next closest running back (David Johnson).

Another confounding variable in 2017 will be New England’s depth at wide receiver. While Brandin Cooks brings a great pedigree from New Orleans, he is just plain folk among Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell, and Chris Hogan. Add in not only Gronkowski but new tight end red zone specialist Dwayne Allen, and it is highly unlikely that Brandin Cooks finishes the year as a top 12 fantasy wide receiver.

Cooks’ current MFL10 ADP of 27.06 (WR11) is entirely too high. I would much rather have Julian Edelman at 95.87 (WR35), Malcolm Mitchell at 186.87 (WR63), or even Chris Hogan at 252.65 (WR89).

Solution: Avoid Brandin Cooks in all formats. He will fail to justify his exorbitant ADP value.

Chapter Two: Remember the Titans

Fantasy Player: Rishard Matthews

Tipping Point Rationale: The “Rodney Dangerfield” of 2017 wide receivers, Rishard Matthews just gets no respect. Matthews didn’t start until Week 8, but from that point on he was a consistent WR2 or better.

Week Recs Yds TDs Rank 8 4 38 1 WR26 9 6 63 2 WR4 10 3 63 1 WR20 11 9 122 0 WR11 12 3 64 1 WR21 14 1 26 0 WR67 15 4 105 0 WR24 16 3 31 1 WR35 17 9 114 1 WR3



His only misstep was Week 14 against the “No Fly Zone” secondary of Denver. Matthews accounted for seven touchdowns over those last nine weeks and produced three WR1 performances. With the addition of rookie wide receivers Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor, opposing defenses will not be able to focus on just Matthews. He has developed a nice rapport with quarterback Marcus Mariota, proved by his 12 red zone receptions (seventh best among wide receivers). Matthews current MFL10 ADP is 150.22 or WR50, a full 32 spots behind the unproven rookie Davis. This is fantasy football larceny at it’s best.

Solution: Draft Rishard Matthews in all formats before Round 12, and enjoy the best WR value in all of fantasy football.

Chapter Three: It’s Not the Size of the Dog in the Fight

Fantasy Player: Danny Woodhead

Tipping Point Rationale: Needless to say, the Baltimore Ravens backfield is not a huge target for fantasy drafters this season. The best fantasy running back last season was Terrance West, who was 26th in total fantasy points and 30th in fantasy points per game. In summary, the Ravens failed to produce even an RB2 running back last season.

One of the reasons for the poor running back production was Joe Flacco’s 673 passing attempts, most of any starting quarterback. However, Flacco only ranked eighth in Deep Ball Attempts, meaning most of his passes were of the short to intermediate variety.

Enter Danny Woodhead.

The 32-year-old Chadron State product is coming off a torn ACL that caused him to miss most of the 2016 season. Woodhead couldn’t be in a more favorable situation, as Baltimore lost wide receivers Steve Smith (retirement) and Kamar Aiken (signed with Indianapolis). His backfield competition is minimal, especially since Kenneth Dixon will miss the first four games of the season due to a positive drug test.

While Woodhead is being ignored in most MFL10 drafts (175.89 ADP), this tipping point will change as soon as the season starts. Take a look at Woodhead’s fantasy production over his last seven NFL seasons.

Year Team Games RU ATT RU YD RUTD RECPT REYD RETD STD Rank PPR Rank 2016 SD 2 19 116 0 6 35 1 —— —— 2015 SD 16 98 336 3 80 755 6 13th 3rd 2014 SD 3 15 38 0 5 34 0 —— —— 2013 SD 16 106 429 2 76 605 6 16th 12th 2012 NE 16 76 301 4 40 446 3 16th 24th 2011 NE 15 77 351 1 18 157 0 —— —— 2010 NE 14 97 547 5 34 379 1 29th 25th



Barring injury, Danny Woodhead is an RB2 lock in standard scoring leagues and a potential RB1 in PPR formats. He will certainly take a huge share of Kyle Juszczyk’s (San Francisco) departed 37 receptions. Woodhead is in the ideal situation for an elite pass-catching running back.

Solution: Don’t get discouraged by the 5’9″ 195 lb frame, Woodhead is an RB2 residing in rounds 13 or 14.

Chapter Four: Woody Always Beat Buzz Lightyear

Fantasy Player: Tyrell Williams

Tipping Point Rationale: Properly handicapping the Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers should be priority number one for fantasy drafters. One of current ADP enigmas is the disparity between rookie Mike Williams (80.07) and last year’s most productive Chargers wide receiver, Tyrell Williams (147.65). The fantasy community needs to take advantage of this incredibly generous draft present.

Tyrell Williams enjoyed his breakout season in 2016 with 69 catches, 1,059 yards, and seven touchdowns. All of this while only starting 12 games last year. Williams averaged 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game, despite two games against the great Denver pass defense. If you remove those two games, Williams’ points jump to 14.97 PPR fantasy points per game. At 6’3″ 205 lbs with a 33.5 arm length, Williams is a fantastic red zone target and will build off his wonderful 2016 season.

There are already reports of Mike Williams falling behind at OTAs.

Chargers coach says first-round pick Mike Williams is ‘getting behind’ due to back injury. https://t.co/In6tMHD3Uq — FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) May 24, 2017

Throw in veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen’s return from a torn ACL, and Tyrell Williams is the most likely candidate to be the Chargers top wide receiver in 2017. Mike Williams may have all the glitz of the new “Buzz Lightyear,” but fantasy drafters should stay with the experienced Tyrell “Woody” Williams.

Solution: There are not many wide receivers with top-15 potential getting drafted after round 10. Target Tyrell Williams at his insane current WR49 spot.

Chapter Five: Lightning Doesn’t Strike Twice

Fantasy Player: Leonard Fournette

Tipping Point Rationale: I call it the “E-Cubed Effect.” After last season’s historically great fantasy production by rookie Ezekiel Elliott, fantasy drafters simply cannot rationally think past 2016. The “Ezekiel Elliott Effect” has fantasy analysts predicting another fantastic rookie running back season for Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette. But historically, first-round running backs have a minimal effect.

I examined the first year production by rookie running backs since 2006. If you exclude Elliott’s incredible 2016 season, the expected production is very pedestrian:

GP Rush Att Rush Yds Rec Rec Yds Total TD 13.5 169.0 728.5 27.3 228.6 6.5



Translated; a first-year running back achieving 1,000 combined yards is actually above average. In the current pass-heavy NFL, it is almost impossible for a rookie running back to have an RB1 year without exceptional pass-catching ability. Leonard Fournette is not a great receiving running back. In his three years at LSU, Fournette only totaled 40 receptions with eight dropped passes. In addition, the presence of T.J. Yeldon will limit his passing game impact, and veteran Chris Ivory will cut into his rushing attempts.

The most important reason Leonard Fournette won’t produce great rookie numbers? The Jaguars offensive line has ranked 25th in run blocking efficiency each of the last two seasons (PlayerProfiler). Making defenders miss behind the line of scrimmage is not a strength for Fournette.

Solution: The only format that I would recommend drafting Leonard Fournette is in Dynasty Leagues. His redraft ADP of 25.29 reflects an expectation of a repeat Ezekiel Elliott performance. No chance that happens. Pass on Fournette in all redraft leagues, and laugh while his fantasy owner looks for trades after Week 3.

Chapter Six: Squish the Fish

Fantasy Player: Jay Ajayi

Tipping Point Rationale: Let’s take a trip back in time. A little over a year ago, here was the prevailing thought on Jay Ajayi in fantasy football circles:

#Dolphins sign RBs Daniel Thomas & Isaiah Pead after visiting w Arian Foster earlier in wk; seems they dont trust Jay Ajayi #fantasyfootball — Anthony Grace (@thePPRmonster) April 1, 2016

Next? Let’s go to September of last season. Here was the update as the Miami Dolphins were about to start the season:

Chris Grier/Adam Gase inherited Jay Ajayi. They personally took Kenyan Drake & signed Arian Foster. Ajayi COULD be on his way out. #Dolphins — Doug Moore (@DMooreNFL) September 9, 2016

However, once Arian Foster announced his retirement in October, Miami had no choice but to give Ajayi a chance. From Week 5to 17, Ajayi was the eighth best PPR back and the seventh best standard scoring back in fantasy football. But, as always, we need to look deeper.

Week Opp Att Yds TDs Recs Yds Rank Std Rank PPR 5 TEN 13 42 1 — — 17 24 6 PIT 25 204 2 1 3 1 3 7 BUF 28 214 1 1 2 2 3 9 NYJ 24 111 1 3 19 6 6 10 @ SD 19 79 0 1 1 21 22 11 @ LA 16 77 0 3 7 30 28 12 SF 18 45 1 1 11 13 18 13 @ BAL 12 61 0 6 26 21 17 14 ARI 20 48 0 1 15 34 37 15 @ NYJ 19 51 0 — — 38 47 16 @ BUF 32 206 1 1 3 2 3 17 NE 16 59 0 3 20 31 26



Ajayi’s end of season totals were greatly enhanced by three hugely productive weeks. He failed to produce at a fantasy RB1 level in both standard & PPR scoring formats during eight of those weeks. Ajayi’s success was also directly tied to the complete health of the Miami offensive line. Ajayi only recorded a 24 percent Juke Rate (PlayerProfiler), which ranked 31st among all fantasy running backs.

He is also a major injury risk. Ajayi’s violent running style has always been a concern in Miami, and one will wonder whether the minor knee contusion and shoulder strain injuries of last year were harbingers of things to come. Ajayi is simply too much of a risk at his current 32.46 (RB10) ADP in MFL10s.

Solution: Avoid being hypnotized by Ajayi’s four great weeks last season. Too many question marks and not enough history of sustained NFL success to justify his ADP.

Chapter Seven: The Forgotten Lion

Fantasy Player: Golden Tate

Tipping Point Rationale: Some players suffer from the “what have you done for lately” rationale. Yet others, like Golden Tate, suffer from the “it doesn’t matter what you have done lately” rationale.

Take a look at Tate’s production in each of the last three years.

Year G Rec Yds Avg TD FUM 2016 16 91 1,077 11.8 4 1 2015 16 90 813 9 6 1 2014 16 99 1,331 13.4 4 1



That’s three consecutive years of 16 games played, 90+ receptions while averaging over 1,000 yards, and only producing one fumble per season. Factor in that last season was the only one without touchdown magnet Calvin Johnson on the field with Tate, and that’s an incredible three-year run.

The fantasy community has been scared off from Golden Tate because of two issues. First, he underperformed his ADP in 2015.

Year ADP PPR STD 2017 WR29 ????? ????? 2016 WR25 WR17 WR23 2015 WR15 WR24 WR34 2014 WR32 WR11 WR13



Second, the fantasy community is scarred from last year’s poor start. Over the first five games Golden Tate was the 75th ranked WR in PPR formats, and the 86th ranked fantasy WR in standard scoring leagues. From that point on, the Lions realized they had to get Tate more involved.

From Week 6 on, Golden Tate was WR10 in Std, WR7 in PPR. Tate > Baldwin or Hilton in both formats during that time. #FantasyFootball — Mike Randle (@FtsyWarriorMike) May 28, 2017

His opportunities will be even greater now as veteran Anquan Boldin has departed, leaving behind not only targets but specifically red zone targets.

#Lions 2016 Red-Zone Receiving Stats. Assuming Anquan Boldin doesn't return, lots of opportunity left behind: pic.twitter.com/tzRMOIuKbz — Evan Silva (@evansilva) May 28, 2017

Golden Tate is currently being drafted as a WR3. The very definition of tipping point will be when the fantasy community wakes up. Until then, the value is simply incredible.

Solution: In a competition where winners and losers are determined by weekly scoring, very few wide receivers are as consistent as Golden Tate. Encourage your league to draft quickly before Tate improves on his current 78.2 ADP.



Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Mike Randle is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @FtsyWarriorMike.