As the Cancún summit's first week draws to a close, John Vidal analyses progress on the key issues, from emissions cuts to finance for developing countries

GIGATONNE GAP

Plan: To hold emissions to a maximum temperature rise of 2C.

The prize: To prevent runaway global warming.

Progress: Little. But many rich countries only interested in implementing unambitious Copenhagen accord.

Setbacks: Pledges made so far by countries only cover 60% of what science says is needed to hold temperatures to 2C increase.

Outlook: Bleak. Hard to see how big emitters like the US will compromise to greater cuts.

Comment: Wendel Trio, Greenpeace climate director: "This is a meeting of emitters anonymous. They haven't even taken the first steps to admit there is a problem."

FORESTS

Plan: Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (Redd). To set up an international forest and land use agreement which will allow countries to offset carbon emissions by protecting forests – and locking away emissions – in developing countries.

The prize: Possible $30bn a year to go to developing countries to protect and restore forests.

Progress: Little. Informal discussions taking place but Saudi Arabia is hostile.

Setbacks: Concerns that a bad agreement could fund loggers and lead to corruption.

Outlook: Good. No final agreement but all parties determined to deliver one.

Comment: Peg Putt, Tasmanian Greens leader: "We need to ensure natural forests will be protected, and biodiversity is maintained."

FINANCE

Plan: To raise $100bn a year by 2020 for developing countries affected by climate change, and set up a giant carbon fund.

Progress: Good. Financiers confident money can be found. Some of the key elements like governance of the fund and allocation of more money for adapting to the impacts of climate change – such as flooding – are heading in the right direction.

Setbacks: The US and others are holding finance hostage to get concessions from China on the transparency of monitoring emissions cuts.

Outlook: Close to agreement. This could be one of the deliverables at Cancún. Developing countries will have to agree to a large tranche of risky market-driven money rather than guaranteed public funds, but look like keeping control over the funds.

Comment: Tim Gore, Oxfam climate change adviser: "This is achievable. A fair climate fund could make a huge difference in ensuring that people suffering the impacts of climate change get the help they need and will help put the negotiations back on track towards a global deal."

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

Plan: To reach agreement so all countries have access to new low-carbon technologies.

Progress: Talk of regional or international centres to provide advice and information.

Setbacks: Not many. Considered relatively easy to achieve

Outlook: Good but probably to be concluded in 2011.

KYOTO PROTOCOL

Plan: To get rich countries to sign up to extending the Kyoto protocol and state their plans for emissions cuts.

Progress: Backwards.

Setbacks: Japan has stated categorically that it will not sign up to a new period, and other countries like Russia, Australia and Canada are reluctant to give positions away.

Outlook: Critical. Kyotyo protocol is totemic issue for developing countries who say it is the only legally binding treaty forcing rich countries to cut emissions.

Comment: Martin Khor, director of the inter-governmental South Centre: "This is very shocking. The whole Kyoto protocol is now under severe threat."

LOOPHOLES

Plan: Close loopholes in negotiating texts that could mean a rise emissions.

Progress: None. EU, Australia, Russia New Zealand and Canda are trying to open more loopholes.

Setbacks: If major loopholes in forestry, land use and unused permits to emit carbon are not closed, some rich countries may need to take no action to cut emissions.

Outlook: No prospects for agreement.

Comment: Paul Winn, Greenpeace Australia: "The loopholes are so big you can drive a logging truck straight through them and build a coal plant in its shadow. It's time to bring an end to this farce".

VERIFICATION

Plan: Commit to an international program by which countries would monitor, report and verify one another's progress on emission reduction commitments and climate aid pledges.

Progress: China and the US have indicated they are prepared to compromise, and an Indian compromise proposal on self-financed actions at home is shaping up as a deal-maker. Countries are now discussing setting up a new oversight body for long term finance.

Setbacks: Rich countries want to be allowed to measure, and verify actions taken by developing countries to combat climate change. Equally, poor countries want to be certain rich country money comes on non top of official aid.

Outlook: Significant steps so far suggest there could be a breakthrough.

HOW HAVE THEY DONE?

China: Has played the first week quiet, avoiding confrontation with US. But real discussions have barely started.

US: Less assertive and aggressive since the mid term elections because they are in weaker position. Eager to avoid attacks by developing countries but not offering compromises yet.

Europe: The most ambitious of the rich country blocs, not eager to lead but prepared to compromise to get deals on Redd and finance. Positioned midway between Japan and developing countries on Kyoto.