2020 MD-7 Special & Ohio Primary Preview

Tomorrow there are two vote-by-mail elections: The MD-7 Special Election General, and the delayed Ohio Primary, which was extended at the last minute in March due to coronavirus, with an additional month of mail-in voting in lieu of in-person polls on March 17. As the MD-7 race is non-competitive and a significant percentage of the Ohio vote had largely been cast in March, these races haven’t been particularly active the last six weeks, so this preview is mostly just a reminder of where they stood before things went to hell. As this is the first all-vote-by-mail election for both states, it’s unclear how quick we will get results, but “poll closing” is at 7:30 ET in Ohio and 8p ET in Maryland. We will have a liveblog tomorrow.

Kweisi Mfume

MD-7: MD-7, lovely home of your esteemed editor, is a heavily gerrymandered Black-majority D+26 seat covering most of the Black-majority parts of Baltimore City, along with mutli-ethnic middle class suburbs of western Baltimore County around Catonsville, and a tail to wealthy GOP-leaning exurbs to the north around Sparks. The seat also includes the northern 2/3 or so of Howard County to the west, largely upper-middle-class suburbs and exurbs, including upscale moderates in the Ellicott City area and limousine liberals in northern and western Columbia. The special election was triggered by the death last year of Rep. Elijah Cummings (D).

Kim Klacik

Ex-Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D) is set to make a comeback to this seat at age 71. A former delinquent in his youth and one of Baltimore’s most shrill voices during the later part of the civil rights era, Mfume represented a prior iteration of the district for a decade from 1986 to 1996, when he resigned to become head of the NAACP. Mfume is credited with strong leadership at the organization, which renewed the relevance of an organization regarded to be past its prime when he took over. Mfume attempted a comeback with a Senate bid in 2006. However, concerns about his electability, even in deep-blue Maryland, pushed most establishment Dems to back his less-liberal primary rival, now-Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Considered a left-wing radical in his early career, Mfume is a good example of the leftward drift in the Dem coalition, as he is now running as an establishment liberal.

Local GOP official and nonprofit exec Kim Klacik (R), who lives well outside the seat in Baltimore’s eastern suburbs, has fundraised surprisingly credibly for the race with hauls of around $200K Klacik is best known for a tweet criticizing social ills in Baltimore, which was picked up by Trump to criticize Elijah Cummings before his death. Klacik has raised enough to run a credible campaign, but she should pose no threat to Mfume thanks to the deep-blue nature of the seat. RRH Elections currently rates this special election as Safe D.

Ohio:

OH-1 (D): OH-1 is a gerrymandered R+5 seat covering the western 2/3 or so of Cincinnati and its western suburbs, plus Cincinnati’s northeastern exurbs around Lebanon, with the two portions connected by a thin tail designed to minimize exposure to D-leaning suburban areas north of the city.

Steve Chabot

Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) is seeking a thirteenth term. Chabot is considered an establishment conservative with a fiscal conservative focus. Though not one of the caucus’s most visible members, Chabot is one of the longest-serving members of the House GOP. He has been quietly climbing the committee ladders, despite his service being interrupted by an upset loss on the 2008 wave before regaining his seat in 2010. This seat was gerrymandered to be significantly more Republican-friendly in 2012. However, a leftward trend in suburban areas gave him a close race in 2018, and two credible, well-funded Democrats are seeking to take him on this year.

Kate Schroder

Nonprofit exec Kate Schroder (D) is a former congressional and Cincinnati government staffer who subsequently worked in Africa with the Clinton Foundation. Unsurprisingly, she has cultivated sterling establishment connections. Schroder has the lions’ share of local institutional support, including big endorsements from Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley (D), whom she served as a staffer, and the Hamilton County Democratic Party. She is running as an establishment liberal with mild bold progressive tendencies, and has fundraised very well with hauls of over $800K.

Nikki Foster

GE executive and veteran Nikki Foster (D) has a compelling biography as an Air Force Academy graduate and Afghanistan veteran of Filipino descent. Befitting Democratic donors’ fondness for veterans, she has fundraised well with hauls of a bit over a half million. Foster is running as an establishment liberal and has a modest amount of institutional support, including backing from the liberal veterans’ group VoteVets. However, in both fundraising and establishment connections, her marks are well short of Schroder’s.

Overall, Schroder’s better funding and connections likely make her a moderate favorite in the primary, though Foster is certainly running a serious enough campaign to pull the upset. In the general, this suburban- and urban-heavy seat is one of the few Midwestern areas where Democrats seem likely to make gains, and both Schroder and Foster seem strong candidates. However, this is still a GOP-leaning seat overall and Chabot is a strong incumbent who has faced tough races before. Thus, Chabot looks likely to start the general as a moderate favorite in a competitive race. CW is that win or lose, the race will be Chabot’s last, as this seat is more likely than not to be turned into a Dem-leaning district in 2022 due to the state’s new anti-gerrymandering laws. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

OH-3 (D): OH-3 is a D+19 seat covering most of urban Columbus and some inner suburbs, with a scraggly shape gerrymandered to generally include the most Dem-heavy parts of the metro.

Joyce Beatty

Incumbent Joyce Beatty (D) is seeking a fifth term. A former legislator who inherited her seat from her husband, Beatty rose to become Minority Leader in the State House. After terming out of the legislature, she won a crowded primary for this newly-drawn seat in 2012 in a mild upset. Since entering Congress, Beatty has been a largely backbench establishment liberal with a fiscal liberal focus and some very slight moderate tendencies. She has strong connections with the local establishment, and is particularly tied to the network of still-powerful ex-Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman (D). Beatty is well-funded with a seven-figure warchest. However, she has received some criticism for alleged conflicts of interest between her husband’s position on a local zoning board and real estate interests she and her husband have held. Additionally, with Columbus’s status as an increasingly hip city with a growing upscale left-wing base, Beatty’s establishment liberalism has left room to her left in the primary, and she is facing a serious challenger this year.

Morgan Harper

Nonprofit executive Morgan Harper (D) is a former staffer for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau who works at the large national community-development nonprofit LISC. She has received buzz for her youth at age 36, and has fundraised massively for this race, with hauls of nearly $800K. She is running on a far-left ideology, notably calling for slavery reparations. Harper has strong institutional support from far-left groups, including the Democratic Socialists. However, she has little support from the more local-level establishment and no prior name recognition.

Overall, Beatty’s incumbency and local connections should leave her a moderate favorite. However, Harper’s massive fundraising and the growing gentrified far-left base in the seat could give her a real opening to pull the upset. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

OH-4 (D): OH-4 is an R+14 seat covering a broad swath of rural west-central Ohio around Lima and Urbana, plus a gerrymandered tail to the northeast covering purple to light-blue areas around Fremont and Elyria.

Jim Jordan

Incumbent Jim Jordan (R) is seeking an eighth term. Jordan has been one of the House’s foremost antiestablishment conservatives. He has long been a lightning rod and thorn in the side for both Democrats and establishment Republicans, particularly as leader of the Freedom Caucus. Jordan’s seat, based in conservative rural areas of the west-central part of the state, was made somewhat less Republican in redistricting in 2012 by adding an arm into more liberal areas west of Cleveland. Though the seat is still safely Republican, Jordan’s lightning rod reputation has been catnip for donors to his challengers, and three surprisingly well-funded Dems are squaring off in the primary to take him on.

Shannon Freshour

The three challengers are all very well funded from national liberal donors, but none are politically established in the area and all seem long-shots against the deep-red lean of the seat. Thus, none have really attracted a large amount of outside enthusiasm or institutional support and seem closer to the status of grifter-candidates (though they are all running serious campaigns) than real contenders to flip the seat. Paralegal Shannon Freshour (D) is running as an establishment liberal and has raised an impressive warchest north of $500K for the race. Warehouse manager and veteran Jeffrey Sites (D) is running as a populist moderate, and has also fundraised well with a warchest of over $300K. And former congressional staffer Mike Larsen (D) has also worked as a stand-up comic and a writer for major TV shows, including Ellen and the Drew Carey show. He is running as a bold progressive and has had mediocre fundraising of around $200K. There is no clear favorite in the primary and any of the three could win.

Ex-Shelby County GOP chair Chris Gibbs (I) is also running as an Indie on a vague centrist platform, and may draw a few anti-Jordan votes in the general. However, this is an inelastically and deeply Republican seat, and it’s hard not to see Jordan coasting to an uneventful re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

OH-13 (R): OH-13 is a D+7 seat covering most of the Youngstown-Warren metro area, plus a tail to the west covering Alliance, Kent, and the white-majority urban parts of the Akron area. It was gerrymandered as a Dem vote sink but now trending toward competitive territory in the Trump era.

Timothy Ryan

Incumbent Tim Ryan (D) is seeking a tenth term. Ryan is a former congressional staffer who is known for his close ties with the labor movement; he ousted an incumbent in the 2002 primary through his labor ties. Ryan is known as a fiscal liberal, but has historically been moderate on cultural issues, a good fit for this quintessentially blue-collar district. However, he abruptly moved left in the last few years as he pursued a vanity Presidential run this cycle. The timing would not seem to be great for a leftward metamorphosis on Ryan’s part, as this seat, drawn as a Dem vote sink, has been stampeding rightward in the Trump era. Thus, Ryan seems likely to face his first competitive re-election race in a decade this year, as Republicans have recruited a credible challengers.

Christina Hagan

Ex-State Rep. and 2018 OH-16 candidate Christina Hagan (R) is a 31-year-old who served eight years in the legislature from the Canton area, outside this seat, before an unsuccessful bid for OH-16 in the primary two years ago. Hagan is known as a dedicated Trumpulist, preaching a fusion between antiestablishment conservatism and populism even before 2016. Though that position is right of the seat’s median voter, it is not a terrible fit for this seat. Thus, her potential candidacy attracted significant GOP interest and she entered the race at the filing deadline after considerable wooing from GOP institutional forces. Her fundraising has been poor in the low six figures, though she has been in the race only since the start of the year. Though she has significant assets, her late start, mediocre fundraising, and carpetbagging could open the door for her primary rival.

Lou Lyras

Businessman Lou Lyras (R) was in the race before Hagan’s entry, and his lifelong residency in the parochial district could be an asset. He has not fundraised significantly from donors, but has self-funded $100K, enough to basically tie Hagan’s overall haul. He is also running as a conservative populist, but with a somewhat milder brew on both fiscal and cultural issues than Hagan’s full-throated antiestablishment populist conservatism. However, Lyras has little name recognition or establishment support.

There are also 5 non-serious Republicans in the race. Overall, Hagan’s higher name recognition should make her a substantial favorite, though there is a chance Lyras could pull the upset. Assuming Hagan is nominated, the race seems likely to be at least somewhat competitive. This seat is still Democratic-leaning, but likely to trend even further to the right this year. Hagan is a credible candidate, and Ryan’s vanity Presidential campaign could provide her with a wedge issue for crossover voters. However, Ryan’s longtime incumbency and the lean of the district still leave him as a strong, though not quite prohibitive, favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

There are also three Ohio races without competitive primaries worth an incidental mention.

Mike Turner

OH-10: OH-10 is an R+4 seat covering Dayton and most of its suburbs, along with a tail to rural areas to the east.

Desiree Tims

Incumbent Mike Turner (R) is seeking a tenth term. Turner is a former Dayton Mayor and establishment conservative. Despite his long tenure, he is mostly a backbencher in DC. However, Turner has built a strong local brand that has led him to mostly keep away serious challengers despite the only light-red nature of this district.

This year, Turner is facing a challenge from congressional staffer and former Obama White House aide Desiree Tims (D), who should beat a non-serious candidate in her primary. An establishment liberal with some mild progressive tendencies, the 31-year old Tims has bounced through a number of staffer positions in DC for the last decade, including as a staffer to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Those ties have given her solid connections and establishment support for this race. However, Tims has not translated those connections well into fundraising, as her mediocre hauls of around $200K seem short of the fundraising pace she would need to put the race on the board against an entrenched incumbent in Turner. Thus, for now this race seems a bit off the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

Troy Balderson

OH-12: OH-12 is an R+7 seat based in Columbus’s northern and northeastern suburbs, along with tails to the east to Zanesville and to the north to the Mansfield-Ashland area.

Alaina Shearer

Incumbent Troy Balderson (R) is seeking a second full term. An establishment conservative former state legislator, Balderson prevailed by a razor-thin margin of under 1% in a hotly-contested special election at the height of Democratic #resistance enthusiasm in early 2018, and won a hard-fought general several months later by a slightly larger margin.

This year, Balderson’s likely challenger is businesswoman and former journalist Alaina Shearer (D), who should beat a non-serious candidate in the primary. Shearer could have name recognition from her prior career as a local radio newscaster. She is running as an establishment liberal with a cultural liberal focus. However, her mediocre fundraising of around $250K so far seems short of what would be needed to put this medium-red seat on the board. Thus, for now the race seems a bit off the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

David Joyce

OH-14: OH-14 is an R+5 seat covering the northeast corner of the state, including Cleveland’s outer eastern suburbs and exurbs, northeastern Akron suburbs around Stow, and the northeast corner of the state around Ashtabula.

Incumbent Dave Joyce (R) is seeking a fifth term. A former prosecutor, Joyce is a backbench establishment conservative in the GOP caucus, but nevertheless one of its most consistent overperformers. Though this seat was quite swingy at a presidential level early in the decade, Joyce has locked it down well as it has trended rightward, beating back well-financed challengers by large margins. His 10-point win last year was the closest of his three re-election races, all against credible challengers.

Hilary O’Connor-Mueri

Joyce’s challenger this year is attorney and former fighter pilot Hilary O’Connor-Mueri (D). O’Connor-Mueri has a compelling biography as a former Naval aviator, and is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies. However, she is carpetbagging back to her childhood home in this district to run after living most of her adult life abroad and in California. GOP attempts to make an issue of that backfired slightly though, when an attempt to call out O’Connor-Mueri for allegedly voting twice a decade ago revealed she did not actually vote in multiple jurisdictions. O’Connor-Mueri’s bigger problem is her mediocre fundraising of only around $200K, which so far seems short of what is needed to put the race on the board against an entrenched incumbent in Joyce. Thus, for now the race still seems off the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.