But says huge gains will be made by the Opposition, with a fall in the ruling party’s vote share

The second round of a pre-poll opinion poll conducted by the New Delhi-based Lokniti - Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) with ABP News predicts a comfortable victory for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat, where the Assembly elections will be held in December.

The survey says the BJP will win 113 to 121 seats, the Opposition Congress 58 to 64, and others one to seven in the 182-seat Assembly. The survey predicts that the BJP is likely to get a 46% vote share and the Congress around 41%.

However, notwithstanding the prediction of a victory for the BJP, the survey shows huge gains made by the Opposition party in the past two months, as the BJP’s vote share has fallen.

The first round of the survey was conducted in August, when the Congress, the main Opposition party, saw a major split, with over a dozen senior legislators, led by Leader of the Opposition Shankersinh Vaghela, leaving the party in the middle of the Rajya Sabha elections.

Party veteran Ahmed Patel barely managed to scrape through to the Upper House.

Gaining ground

However, in less than three months, the Opposition party has gained ground in two politically important regions: Saurashtra and Kutch, which have 58 Assembly seats, and north Gujarat with 32.

In Saurashtra, the BJP and the Congress appear neck and neck, with both parties likely to get a 42% vote share in the region that sends the largest contingent to the Assembly. A BJP bastion since 1995, this region is likely to throw surprises — the Patidars, the BJP’s main supporting community, are up in arms against the ruling party over the issue of reservation in education and jobs.

In 2015, the BJP lost in all the district panchayats in this region as panchayat elections took place after the Patidar quota agitation was launched in July that year. The ruling party is likely to suffer losses in the Patidar belt of Morbi, Rajkot, Amreli and Jamnagar districts.

Similarly in north Gujarat also, the Congress appears strong thanks to consolidation of its traditional OBC vote bank.