Chance of winning

AL AK AZ AR CA CO FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC Key 50% 60 70 80 90 Clinton Trump Tipping points

Electoral votes Electoral votes Hillary Clinton Clinton Donald Trump Trump Evan McMullin McMullin Gary Johnson Johnson Popular vote Hillary Clinton Clinton Donald Trump Trump Gary Johnson Johnson Other Other

# How the forecast has changed We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8. Chance of winning Win prob. Electoral votes Popular vote Key Average 80% chance of falling in range

# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome. Key Average 80% chance outcome falls in this range Show all states ▾

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# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it. Key 50% 60 70 80 90 Clinton's chances Trump's chances One electoral vote

# The winding path to 270 electoral votes A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award. Key One electoral vote

# How much each state matters Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner. Tipping-point chance Florida 17.6% Pennsylvania 12.3 % Michigan 11.7 % North Carolina 11.2 % Virginia 6.0 % Colorado 6.0 % Ohio 5.2 % Wisconsin 4.8 % Minnesota 3.8 % Nevada 3.7 % Arizona 2.8 % New Mexico 2.8 % New Hampshire 2.3 % Georgia 2.3 % Iowa 1.3 % Maine - statewide 0.6 % New Jersey 0.6 % Oregon 0.6 % Texas 0.6 % Alaska 0.4 % Rhode Island 0.4 % Illinois 0.3 % South Carolina 0.3 % Nebraska 2nd District 0.3 % Maine 2nd District 0.3 % Connecticut 0.2 % Delaware 0.2 % South Dakota 0.1 % Utah 0.1 % Maine 1st District 0.1 % Missouri <0.1 % Indiana <0.1 % Tennessee <0.1 % Kansas <0.1 % Mississippi <0.1 % Washington <0.1 % Montana <0.1 % Nebraska 1st District <0.1 % Louisiana <0.1 % Nebraska - statewide <0.1 % Kentucky <0.1 % New York <0.1 % Idaho <0.1 % Arkansas <0.1 % Alabama <0.1 % California <0.1 % North Dakota <0.1 % Massachusetts <0.1 % Hawaii <0.1 % Maryland <0.1 % Oklahoma <0.1 % West Virginia <0.1 % Vermont <0.1 % Wyoming <0.1 % Nebraska 3rd District <0.1 % District of Columbia <0.1 % Voter power index New Mexico 4.8 Nevada 4.5 New Hampshire 4.3 Michigan 3.2 North Carolina 3.2 Colorado 2.9 Pennsylvania 2.9 Florida 2.5 Wisconsin 2.1 Virginia 2.0 Minnesota 1.7 Alaska 1.7 Arizona 1.5 Nebraska 2nd District 1.3 Ohio 1.2 Maine - statewide 1.2 Rhode Island 1.1 Iowa 1.1 Maine 2nd District 1.0 Georgia 0.8 Delaware 0.6 South Dakota 0.5 Oregon 0.4 Maine 1st District 0.4 Vermont 0.3 New Jersey 0.2 Montana 0.2 Nebraska 1st District 0.2 South Carolina 0.2 Connecticut 0.2 Hawaii 0.2 Utah 0.2 Nebraska 3rd District 0.1 Kansas 0.1 Nebraska - statewide <0.1 Texas <0.1 Illinois <0.1 Mississippi <0.1 Tennessee <0.1 Washington <0.1 Wyoming <0.1 West Virginia <0.1 New York <0.1 Missouri <0.1 Louisiana <0.1 Indiana <0.1 Idaho <0.1 Massachusetts <0.1 California <0.1 Kentucky <0.1 Arkansas <0.1 Alabama <0.1 North Dakota <0.1 Maryland <0.1 Oklahoma <0.1 District of Columbia <0.1 Show all states ▾

# What to expect from the Electoral College In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.

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# Who’s winning the popular vote Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident. Key Average test 80% chance outcome falls in this range

# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes. Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes 1.0% Electoral College 269-269 tie 0.5% Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 8.3% Clinton wins popular vote 81.4% Trump wins popular vote 18.6% Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 10.5% Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 0.5% Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 0.3% McMullin wins at least one electoral vote 13.5% Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 28.7% Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 2.3% Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 6.1% Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin 0.3% Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.2% Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 71.6% Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 85.0%