Liberals Now Have Slight Lead

[Ottawa – October 8, 2015] The Liberals have been on a sustained rise for nearly a week and they now hold a statistically insignificant lead. At 34.1 points, the party is enjoying its highest support levels since February. The Conservatives are close behind at 32.5 points, while the NDP remains mired in the low 20s.

The most notable regional shifts are Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals have moved into a clear lead in Ontario where the NDP seem to be fading. In Quebec, the Liberals are clearly on the rise. The Conservatives continue to do well, particularly outside of Montreal and Western Quebec. The NDP are still a potent but diminished force but might benefit if the Bloc vote collapses (which it appears to be doing). The three parties are in a statistical tie in what has become an extremely unpredictable race. However, those focused on the daily numbers need to understand that the Quebec results carry a five-point margin of error and the key is the longer-term trends, not the day-to-day results.

The key demographic shifts have been a reconsolidation of the 2011 Conservative constituency. The university vote has shifted decisively back to the Liberals while the Conservatives retain a firm grip on the college and high school educated.

In a race as tight as this one, the variability of outcomes is very wide and the exact outcome will ultimately be determined who is actually going to show up on October 19th. The Conservatives have a huge advantage with seniors, a group that consistently and reliably votes in large numbers. The Liberal Party, meanwhile, enjoys a similar advantage with university graduates. The NDP and Green Party, however, both find their support focused among youth and their biggest challenge come Election Day will be ensuring that their supporters actually show up and vote.

An important component of turnout is the issue of cellphone-only households. As a growing number of households cut their landlines, it is critical that we understand how voter behaviour varies by phone type. In 2011, cellphone-only citizens shared two characteristic: 1.) lower tendency to select the Conservatives; and 2.) lower tendency to vote. These two factors coalesced to produce a prediction error. Indeed, those firms that invested the resources necessary to reach those with cellphones were effectively penalized for having better population coverage. These patterns persist, but cellphone-only voters now make up a much larger share of the electorate than in 2011.

Methodology:

This study involved a blended sample collected using two separate methodologies: Computer Assisted Live Interviews (CATI) and EKOS’ proprietary High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are October 5-7, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,753 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (1,215 by HD-IVR, 538 by live interviewer). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (October 8, 2015)

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