Jul 19, 2015

Among all Middle East countries, Israel and Palestine are probably the most focused on lining up policies and political coalitions to deal with the aftermath of the Iran agreement.

Both have much to lose or gain the “day after.” The Israeli government, which considers the agreement a strategic threat to the country’s national security, will do its utmost to undermine the agreement by interfering in the congressional debate. At the same time, it is contemplating a defense compensation package from the United States. A senior source close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that the prime minister will demand that the US administration, both the White House and the State Department, help him brush the Palestinian issue under the carpet. Netanyahu will argue that he will not engage in a process that, according to him, risks ending up in a pro-Iranian enclave in the West Bank.

As for the Palestinian leadership, it waits impatiently for the end of the debate in the US Congress over the Iranian deal in order to engage in an international diplomatic offensive on Palestinian statehood. A Palestinian senior political source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that President Mahmoud Abbas stressed to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius in a June 21 talk in Ramallah that he is ready to coordinate with France on an initiative for the renewal of negotiations and a move at the UN Security Council.

This Palestinian quest seems to gain support from various EU members. A senior source in Brussels close to EU High Commissioner Federica Mogherini, who asked not to divulge his name, told Al-Monitor, “With no agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians, violence will rise again, and those opposing a two-state solution will grow stronger.” This assessment is shared by most important EU member states.

While waiting for the Iran deal approval process in Congress, and in view of looming European initiatives, Jerusalem and Ramallah are each positioning themselves and preparing for the battles to come.