NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

Wow! I don’t think I’ve ever had a day with three bets rated 4 stars or more since I started posting several weeks ago. I see a lot of value in tonight’s games. Let’s dive into the details right away (no projections on Magic-Cavs):

APRIL 4, 2017 SPREAD MONEY LINE Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Nets 0 +2,5 -103 +129 1,97 2,29 -13,9% 76ers 0 -2,5 -107 -129 1,93 1,78 X 9,1% Tip: Bet the 76ers. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Hornets +4 +4,6 +152 +185 2,52 2,85 -7,3% Wizards -4 -4,6 -169 -185 1,59 1,54 2,5% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Raptors +2,5 -1,9 +124 -118 2,24 1,85 X 21,4% Pacers -2,5 +1,9 -137 +118 1,73 2,18 -26,2% Tip: Bet the Raptors. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Nuggets +3 +2,1 +127 +120 2,27 2,20 Pelicans -3 -2,1 -140 -120 1,71 1,83 Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Bucks +4,5 +3,8 +173 +161 2,73 2,61 3,4% Thunder -4,5 -3,8 -193 -161 1,52 1,62 -8,1% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Bulls -3,5 +1,5 -163 +113 1,61 2,13 -36,0% Knicks +3,5 -1,5 +147 -113 2,47 1,88 X 31,2% Tip: Bet the Knicks. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Grizzlies +9 +8,8 +385 +408 4,85 5,08 Spurs -9 -8,8 -450 -408 1,22 1,25 Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Blazers +6,5 +7,4 +231 +307 3,31 4,07 -9,8% Jazz -6,5 -7,4 -260 -307 1,38 1,33 4,9% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Twolves +13,5 +13,4 +944 +1200 10,44 13,00 -1,6% Warriors -13,5 -13,4 -1300 -1200 1,08 1,08 -3,2% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Mavericks -1 +3,3 -113 +150 1,88 2,50 -30,3% Kings +1 -3,3 +102 -150 2,02 1,67 X 25,5% Tip: Bet the Kings.

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Knicks +3.5 against the Bulls . My projections actually have the Knicks favorites by 1.5 points. New York has won both meetings fairly easily this year: 117-104 in Chicago and 104-89 at Madison Square Garden. In fact, they have won the last 4 matchups and they are 6-2 against the spread over the last 8 contests against the Bulls. On top of that, Chicago is playing a third game in four nights. The Bulls seemed to be dead after losing 5 straight games and losing Dwayne Wade to a season-ending injury. But out of nowhere they went 7-4 since then. I truly feel like they are being overrated because of that recent stretch: I do not believe they are a .500 team without Wade. Derrick Rose is out for NewYork, while Carmelo Anthony is expected to play. At this time of writing, more than 80% of the bets have been placed on Chicago. As a contrarian, I like it.

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I like the Kings +1 against the Mavericks . I just read a tweet by Earl K. Sneed a few minutes ago mentioning Wesley Matthews will rest tonight, and that the following 4 players are questionable for various reasons: Harrison Barnes (rest) (their leading scorer), Seth Curry (shoulder), J.J. Barea (rest) and Dirk Nowitzki (right Achilles). I immediately grabbed Sacramento at +110 since I felt like the line might move in the opposite direction once most people would hear the news. My projections have the Kings favorites by 3.3, so I would still bet them with a -2 spread. Since the trade deadline, Sacramento has a 6-14 record, but they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. They have beaten the Clippers, the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves, which is quite impressive. Meanwhile, Dallas was just officially eliminated so that may be why they are considering resting players. Over the last six meetings between these two teams, Sacramento is 5-1 against the spread. 80% of the bets have gone on Dallas. I love this pick.

I recommend picking the Raptors +2.5 in Indiana because my projections see them as 1.9-point favorites. Since losing Kyle Lowry to an injury, the Raptors have been playing even better: they are 14-6 without him (a .700 record). Did you know Toronto has the best point differential in the Eastern Conference? They are averaging 107.3 points per game and allowing 103.0 for a +4.3 differential. As a comparison, Cleveland is +3.3 and Boston is +2.8. Meanwhile, the Pacers are crashing and burning: their playoff hopes are quickly disappearing. They have won a single game over their last 7 contests. The Raptors have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, but notice they went 4-4 against the spread on those games.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m taking the 76ers pick’em against the Nets . However, be aware that I’ve not been handicapping the Nets very well; it seems to me like I’ve lost 4-6 straight bets on games involving them. Philly’s lineup is depleted with injuries: Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Robert Covington are all out. It looks like Dario Saric will play, but he may be limited. The public is aware of those injuries and may be overreacting because my model has Philadelphia as 2.5-point favorites. The Nets are playing a 3rd game in 4 nights.

Good luck on your bets!

Professor MJ