Joe Joyce, of Whitefish Bay, Wisc., used to stash a few hundred dollars in the bank each month, meticulously shoring up his family’s emergency savings fund.

But for the past 18 months or so, with his paycheck stagnant and his expenses rising, he’s been drawing a few hundred dollars monthly from the account, slowly depleting it. He recently dropped his cable service and health club membership and soon, he says, he’ll have to start cutting back on indulgences like eating out once a week.

“it’s going to have to happen, says Joyce, 52.

As average wage hikes across the U.S. continue to lag increases in spending, Americans are saving less or dipping into bank accounts to fuel their outlays. Some economists say that’s an unsustainable dynamic that portends a downturn in consumer spending, which has been driving economic growth.

In the second quarter, households saved 3.8% of their disposable income, down from an average of about 5% last year and 6% in 2015, according to revised figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis last week. In 2007, before the recession began, Americans were socking away about 3% of their after-tax income. But during and after the downturn, cautious consumers sharply scaled back their borrowing and saved more.

Over the past couple of years, however, household spending has begun to outpace income gains. From the second quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2017, personal disposable income increased an average of 2.8% a year while consumer outlays rose about 4% a year, BEA figures show. The gap between income and spending is pulled from savings.

“if you’re relying on your savings to finance your spending, at some point you’re going to run dry,” says Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist of Oxford Economics. As a result, he says, “I think we’re going to see more subdued consumer spending” as soon as the current quarter.

Other economists, however, believe the pullback in savings indicates that, eight years after the Great Recession ended, Americans are finally confident enough in the economy and labor market to save less and spend more. And they predict, the drawdown on savings will end soon because pay increases are poised to accelerate as the 4.3% unemployment rate forces employers to bid up to attract workers.

So far, pay increases have been tempered, contributing to the lion's share of the sluggish income growth, says BEA economist Kurt Kunze. Growth in corporate dividend payments and some small business income also has slowed, he says.

Although the average hourly earnings reported by the Labor Department each month has been rising about 2.5% annually, that doesn’t count non-wage compensation. Average weekly pay — including bonuses, stock options and certain commissions — fell 1.5% last year, according to Labor’s quarterly census of employment and wages.

Joyce, a director for a company that makes bone-density measuring technology, hasn’t gotten a raise or a bump in his bonus in three years. Meanwhile, expenses for things like home and car insurance premiums, car repair bills, out-of-pocket health costs, groceries and dining out have increased.

“When everything else is going up and your paycheck isn’t, it’s not even keeping pace with the cost of living,” he says.

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Daco, of Oxford Economics, argues that Americans can’t keep siphoning from their savings and that wage growth will pick up only gradually. As a result, he expects inflation-adjusted consumer spending, which has been running at about a 3% annual pace the past three years, to slow to 2% starting in the current quarter. Consumption makes up about 70% of economic activity.

But Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, does expect pay increases to accelerate as employers increasingly struggle to hire workers. He largely sees the reduced savings as a sign of consumer confidence.

“It is a good thing if it isn’t taken to the extreme,” he says. “You don’t necessarily get a sense consumers are throwing caution to the wind.”

Jill Tracey, 50, who hosts a radio talk show in Miami, quit her job when the financial crisis hit in 2008 to help her mother — who lost $65,000 in the market crash and faced health problems — both with daily tasks and financially. She also reined in her spending.

“I was too afraid anything could happen,” she says.

But now her credit score has improved and she believes lofty consumer confidence is good for the radio industry and her job security. So she recently leased a luxury SUV and is planning a week-long vacation for the first time in years. All that means saving less.

“This is my window to get in,” she says. “I’m just going to hit it while it’s hot.”

Marcia Jaffe, an Atlanta-based freelance journalist who’s also living off Social Security and a pension, recently decided to splurge because record-high stocks have swelled her investments. She spent several thousand dollars to treat her dog’s arthritis, is helping both her daughter and granddaughter with college expenses, and plans to remodel her townhouse.