Acknowledgments

This report represents the work of the Demosim team, under the direction of Éric Caron-Malenfant. The following people are or were part of the Demosim team when these projections were developed: Éric Caron-Malenfant, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Patrice Dion, Harry François, Nora Galbraith, Mark Knarr, Stéphanie Langlois, Samuel MacIsaac, Laurent Martel and Jean‑Dominique Morency of the Demography Division; Melanie Abeysundera, Dominic Grenier, Chantal Grondin and Soumaya Moussa of the Social Survey Methods Division; Karla Fox of the Statistical Research and Innovation Division; Martin Spielauer of the Social Analysis and Modelling Division; Jean-Pierre Corbeil and René Houle of the Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division.

These projections were developed thanks to the financial support of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Representatives of that department also contributed to the development of these projections, including the assumptions and scenarios used, through an interdepartmental working group and an interdepartmental steering committee.

We would also like to highlight the contribution of Demosim’s scientific committee. The committee, chaired by Michael Wolfson (University of Ottawa), is composed of Stewart Clatworthy (Four Directions Project Consultants), David Coleman (Oxford University), Eric Guimond (INAC), Peter Hicks (consultant), Jack Jedwab (Association for Canadian Studies), Don Kerr (University of Western Ontario) and Réjean Lachapelle (consultant).

A number of other people were involved in the production of this report, either directly or indirectly, by participating in reviewing the preliminary versions or helping to prepare data. These people are Daniel Bannatyne, Carol D’Aoust, Johanne Denis, Marc Lachance and André Lebel.

Highlights

Immigrant and second-generation populations

Based on the projection scenarios used, immigrants would represent between 24.5% and 30.0% of Canada’s population in 2036, compared with 20.7% in 2011. These would be the highest proportions since 1871.

In 2036, between 55.7% and 57.9% of Canada’s immigrant population could have been born in Asia, up from 44.8% estimated in 2011, while between 15.4% and 17.8% could have been born in Europe, down from 31.6% in 2011.

The proportion of the second-generation population, i.e. , non‑immigrants with at least one parent born abroad, within the total Canadian population would also increase. In 2036, nearly one in five people would be of second generation, compared with 17.5% in 2011.

, non‑immigrants with at least one parent born abroad, within the total Canadian population would also increase. In 2036, nearly one in five people would be of second generation, compared with 17.5% in 2011. Together, immigrants and second-generation individuals could represent nearly one person in two (between 44.2% and 49.7%) in 2036, up from 2011 (38.2%).

Languages

According to all scenarios used for these projections, the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French would be up and could account for between 26.1% and 30.6% of Canada’s population in 2036, versus 20.0% in 2011.

As in 2011, immigrants would make up the majority—close to 70% in all scenarios—of the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French. However, close to 40% of these other-mother-tongue immigrants would have adopted English or French as the language spoken most often at home, either alone or with other languages.

Visible minority status

According to the results of these projections, in 2036, among the working-age population (15 to 64 years), of special interest for the application of the Employment Equity Act, between 34.7% and 39.9% could belong to a visible minority group, compared with 19.6% in 2011.

In all the projection scenarios, South Asian would still be the main visible minority group in 2036, followed by the Chinese. However, the most rapidly growing groups would be the Arab, Filipino and West Asian groups, given that they represent a higher proportion in the immigrant population than in the population as a whole.

Religion

The proportion of people who report having no religion in the total population would continue to increase, and could represent between 28.2% and 34.6% in 2036 (compared with 24.0% in 2011). This proportion would be similar to Catholics (between 29.2% and 32.8% in 2036, down from 2011 [38.8%]). In 2036, Catholicism would remain the religion with the largest number of followers.

The number of people affiliated with non-Christian religions could almost double by 2036 and could represent between 13% and 16% of Canada’s population, compared with 9% in 2011. The Muslim, Hindu and Sikh faiths, which are over-represented among immigrants compared to their demographic weight in the population as a whole, would see the number of their followers grow more quickly, even if it would continue to represent a modest share of the total Canadian population.

Regional analysis

The results of the different scenarios show that in all provinces and territories, the number and the proportion of immigrants in the population would increase between 2011 and 2036.

Based on all the projection scenarios, the geographic distribution of immigrants among the various regions in 2036 would be similar to the estimate in 2011. The vast majority (between 91.7% and 93.4%) would continue to live in a census metropolitan area (CMA). The three primary areas of residence for immigrants would remain Toronto (between 33.6% and 39.1%), Montréal (between 13.9% and 14.6%) and Vancouver (between 12.4% and 13.1%).

According to all the scenarios for these projections, more than one in two people in 2036 would be an immigrant or the child of an immigrant in Toronto (between 77.0% and 81.4%), Vancouver (between 69.4% and 74.0%), Calgary (between 56.2% and 63.3%) and Abbotsford – Mission (between 52.5% and 57.4%). In 2011, the corresponding proportions were 74.1% in Toronto, 65.6% in Vancouver, 48.0% in Calgary and 49.7% in Abbotsford – Mission.

The results of the projections show that the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) who belong to a visible minority group would increase in all areas of the country, in all the scenarios. This proportion would surpass 40% in Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and Abbotsford – Mission. It would remain lower in non-metropolitan areas.

The results of the projections indicate that religious diversity would be up in all areas considered by 2036. The increase would be more substantial in areas that were the most homogeneous in 2011, i.e. , Quebec (excluding Montréal) and in the Atlantic provinces, primarily because of the rise in the proportion of people who reported having no religion.

, Quebec (excluding Montréal) and in the Atlantic provinces, primarily because of the rise in the proportion of people who reported having no religion. The most religiously diverse areas in 2011 would remain as such in 2036. Among them, Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton, which had a large proportion of immigrants among their population in 2011, would continue to be diverse, in particular as a result of the increase in the proportion of persons reporting a non-Christian religion.

Introduction

Canada’s population has long included a large proportion of immigrants. Since Canadian Confederation in 1867, the proportion of immigrants has never fallen below 13% (Statistics Canada 2010). This proportion has been continually rising over the past 30 years, to 20.7% in 2011.

This recent period was characterized by sustained immigration, increased diversification of the birthplaces of immigrants and immigrant selection intended to meet economic needs and, to a lesser extent, to promote family reunification and welcome vulnerable people (refugees). During this period, the vast majority of immigrants who settled in Canada were from Asia, with China, India and the Philippines being the main source countries (Chagnon 2013). In comparison, before the 1970s, immigrants who settled in Canada were mostly from Europe and the United States (Houle et al. 2016; Statistics Canada 2013a; McInnis 2000). As a result, the massive influx of immigrants from new immigration source countries during this 30-year period, combined with their Canadian-born progeny, transformed Canada’s ethnocultural portrait in a lasting way.

According to Coleman (2006), Canada was similar to a number of European countries, in that it began a third demographic transition in the early 1970s. Coleman (2006) noted that, in countries with high immigration and low fertility, the ethnocultural portrait of the population is destined to change substantially and permanently. Canada today is characterized by this dynamic, in which low fertility and high immigration lead to greater ethnocultural diversity within the population. As evidence of this assertion, international migratory increase surpassed natural increase in Canada in the late 1990s (Statistics Canada 2008), and international migratory increase is projected to remain the main component of this increase in the future (Statistics Canada 2014a).

In the context of these changes and their various potential public policy implications, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) asked Statistics Canada to prepare new projections of the ethnocultural composition of Canada’s population over the next 25 years. These new projections, which take into account the most recent demographic trends and data as well as the new methodological features and projected characteristics integrated into the Demosim projection model (see Caron-Malenfant [2015] for more information), are both an update and an extension of the projections published in 2010 (Statistics Canada 2010).

The main objective of these projections is to assess the sensitivity of ethnocultural diversity trends over the next 25 years to certain key aspects of immigration, such as the number of new immigrants, their geographic distribution and their origin. In addition, emphasis will be placed on how these key aspects of immigration could affect the future ethnocultural diversity of various regions of Canada.

This report consists of two main sections. The first section sets out the assumptions and scenarios chosen for this projection exercise. The second presents the key projection results in two parts: (1) an overall portrait; and (2) an analysis in the form of brief portraits of the provinces and a selection of regions (Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver and a region combining the three territories). Each portrait includes a table and one or more figures that summarize the main projection results at the regional level. Readers and data users can refer to the tables in the appendix for more detailed results. Finally, a glossary with definitions of the more specialized terms is provided at the end of this report.

The methodological complement to this report gives an overview of the projection model, the base population, data sources and methods used. Readers interested in the methodology behind the projections are invited to consult the publication Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a).

For more information about the other projected dimensions of the composition of the Canadian population, please consult the other two analytical reports from this Demosim projection cycle: Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015) and Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2017b).

Base population and projection model

The starting point for this projection exercise is May 10, 2011, the reference date of the 2011 Canadian Census of Population and the National Household Survey (NHS), which were conducted simultaneously. The base population was developed from the 2011 NHS microdata file. To ensure that the data would best represent Canada’s population on the NHS reference date, they were adjusted to take into account the institutional population, net census undercoverage and the population living on incompletely enumerated Indian settlements or reserves. In addition to the variables in the NHS , other variables were added to the base population through data linkage, such as immigrant admission category (economic immigrant, family reunification, refugees and other immigrants) for those who have been admitted since 1980. Following these adjustments, the Demosim base population contained close to 7.3 million records representing 34,273,000 people.

The projection results presented in this report were produced using the Demosim microsimulation projection model. In addition to the characteristics found in the usual projections developed using the cohort-component method (age, sex and place of residence), this model can be used to project many other characteristics of Canada’s population, particularly ethnocultural characteristics such as country of birth, generation status, visible minority group, religion and mother tongue. Demosim can also produce results at detailed geographic levels. These projections were developed at the CMA level. Many products have been developed using the Demosim model, including Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010), Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2011) and, more recently, Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015).

To update the projected population characteristics during simulation, Demosim models a number of both demographic and non-demographic events. Demographic events include fertility, mortality and internal and international migration. Other events include intergenerational “transmission” of language, visible minority status and religion, as well as changes that may arise during a person’s life with regard, for example, to language spoken most often at home, self-reported religion and education.

The complete list of events modelled by Demosim as well as the data sources and methods that made up the projection model are described in a separate document (Box 1).

Start of Text Box Box 1 – To find out more about the base population, data sources and methodology behind these projections For more information on the content of the Demosim model, the base population, and the data sources and methods used to model the events that these projections take into account, please consult the publication Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a), the methodological complement to this projection report. End of Text Box

Assumptions and scenarios

Assumptions

As with every demographic projection exercise, assumptions on future trends needed to be developed for each demographic component. The assumptions for this projection exercise were chosen to meet two specific objectives: 1) to estimate the sensitivity of certain measures of ethnocultural diversity in Canada to specific aspects of immigration and other demographic and non-demographic components, and 2) to provide a plausible range of demographic trends for specific subpopulations (by visible minority group, religion, country of birth, etc.).

The assumptions were chosen by Statistics Canada in consultation with the IRCC . They were also submitted to the Advisory Committee onNote 1 Demographic Statistics and Studies, a committee of independent researchers and experts that gave some recommendations. The Demosim scientific committee also made recommendations on the choice of some assumptions.

To get the most out of existing analyses, several assumptions selected were inspired by previous projection exercises. Therefore, it was possible to draw on the analysis and consultation work done during preparation of the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a), especially the assumptions relating to the key demographic components: fertility, mortality, emigration, immigration and non-permanent residents. More information about the reasons behind the selection of these assumptions can be found in the technical report for this projection exercise, Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada 2014b), which will be referred to extensively in this report. In addition, some assumptions used for the Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015), particularly those relating to Aboriginal populations, have been reproduced here in full.

The choice of assumptions was related to the methods used to model the different components projected. Readers will find additional information in the methodological report of these projections (Statistics Canada 2017a).

The next section presents the assumptions selected with regard to immigration, emigration, non‑permanent residents, internal migration, fertility, the attribution of characteristics to newborns, mortality, language changes and intragenerational religious mobilityNote 2 (Table 1).

Immigration

An analysis of recent immigration data shows that over the past 20 years, there have been many changes in the number of immigrants that Canada admits annually, in the composition of immigration by country of birth and where immigrants settle upon their arrival (Chagnon 2013). Given the fluctuations over time in each of these three dimensions of immigration—and therefore the uncertainty associated with them—more than one assumption was developed for each.

Annual number of immigrants

For the period from May 2011 to June 2016, the annual number of immigrants added to Canada’s population during the projection is based simply on the estimated numbers from the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP), which uses IRCC data. Starting in July 2016, three different assumptions have been used: low, medium and high immigration.

For the low-immigration assumption, the number of immigrants in 2016 corresponds to the lower limit of the range of the IRCC ’s 2016 immigration plan (the most recent plan available when the report was prepared),Note 3Note 4 or 280,000 immigrants, representing an immigration rate of 8.0 immigrants per 1,000 population.Note 5 Starting in 2017, the low assumption involves a progressive decrease in the immigration rate to 5.0 immigrants per 1,000 population in 2022, which is held constant thereafter. This assumption is similar to the one used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 6

The medium and high assumptions were developed in a similar fashion. In 2016, the number of immigrants corresponds to the target number of immigrants in the 2016 immigration plan (300,000 immigrants, or a rate of 8.3 per 1,000 population) for the medium assumption and to the upper limit of the plan (305,000 immigrants, or a rate of 8.4 per 1,000 population) for the high assumption. Under the medium assumption, the rate is then held constant until the end of the projection, while under the high assumption, it progressively increases to 10.0 immigrants per 1,000 population by 2022 and subsequently remains constant.

The medium and high assumptions for this projection both involve slightly higher immigration rates than those used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 7 Since those projections were published, we have witnessed two consecutive years of increases in the federal government’s immigration targets following several years of stability.Note 8 The immigration rates selected for these two assumptions remain comparable to the average rates provided by the demographers who responded to the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends.Note 9

Geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival in Canada

Three assumptions on the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada were also selected. These assumptions reflect the settlement patterns of immigrants that were observed during the following three periods: 1) July 2000 to June 2005, 2) July 2005 to June 2010 and 3) July 2010 to June 2015 (Figure 1).

Description for Figure 1

Data table for figure 1

Provincial and territorial distribution of immigrants for three immigration periods (July to June), Canada, 2000 to 2015

Table summary

This table displays the results of Provincial and territorial distribution of immigrants for three immigration periods (July to June). The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), 2000 to 2005, 2005 to 2010 and 2010 to 2015, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region 2000 to 2005 2005 to 2010 2010 to 2015 percent N.L. 0.2 0.2 0.3 P.E.I. 0.1 0.5 0.6 N.S. 0.7 1 1 N.B. 0.3 0.7 0.9 Que. 16.7 18.4 20.2 Ont. 56.1 46.6 39 Man. 2.5 4.6 5.7 Sask. 0.8 1.8 4.1 Alta. 6.8 9.4 14.2 B.C. 15.7 16.8 13.9 Territories 0.1 0.1 0.2

Between 2000 and 2005, the distribution of immigrants upon arrival was particularly favourable to Ontario and British Colombia, but less so to Quebec and the Prairie provinces. In contrast, between 2010 and 2015, Ontario received proportionally far fewer immigrants than in the past, while Quebec and the Prairie provinces received more. As for 2005 to 2010, the provincial distribution represents a middle ground between the distributions estimated during the other two periodsNote 10 for most provinces and territories.

For 2016, an adjustment is made so that the share of immigrants received by Quebec corresponds to the share in the immigration plans of IRCC and Quebec’s Ministère de l’Immigration, de la Diversité et de l’Inclusion (MIDI).Note 11 In all cases, the proportion of immigrants received by Quebec in 2016 is lower than the proportion estimated for the three periods covered by the assumptions.

For the assumption that reflects the immigrant settlement patterns estimated during the period from July 2010 to June 2015, the adjustment for Quebec for 2016 is maintained until the end of the projection period, whereas in the other two assumptions, this adjustment is made only for 2016.

Composition of immigration by country of birthNote 12

Two assumptions, each established at the province and territory level, on the composition of immigration by country of birth were selected. The first assumption is based on the composition of the cohorts of immigrants admitted to Canada between July 2010 and June 2015. Overall, the five most significant source countries during this period were, in order, the Philippines (14.6% of all immigrants admitted to Canada), India (12.8%), China (11.3%), Iran (4.3%) and Pakistan (3.8%).

The second assumption is based on the period from July 2005 to June 2010. Under this assumption, China (13.0%) is the main source country for immigration to Canada, with a rate 1.7 percentage points higher than in the first assumption. The share of immigrants from India (12.4%), and from the Philippines in particular (9.5%), are lower under this assumption. Lastly, also in this assumption, Pakistan (3.8%) and the United States (3.4%) are ranked fourth and fifth among countries that contribute the most to immigration to Canada.

Emigration

Emigration is a demographic phenomenon that is difficult to estimate in Canada, in particular because people leaving the country have no legal obligation to report their departure. Nonetheless, we know that the number of emigrants is well below the number of immigrants. For example, between July 2015 and June 2016, a total of 321,000 immigrants settled in Canada, while the number of people who left the country was estimated at 64,000.Note 13

Three assumptions, largely inspired by those used in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a) were adopted to account for the inherent uncertainty of future emigration levels.Note 14Note 15Under the medium assumption, the risks of emigrating are in line with the average rates estimated by the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP) for the period from 2002/2003 to 2011/2012, and adjusted to account for some underestimation of the average rates in Ontario and British Colombia, in accordance with the method detailed in Bohnert et al. (2014). In this assumption, Canada’s emigration rate is approximately 1.8 emigrants per 1,000 populationNote 16. The low and high assumptions differ from the medium assumption only for the populations living in Ontario and British Colombia, in accordance with the emigration assumptions used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 17 Overall, the low assumption corresponds to an emigration rate of approximately 1.5 per 1,000 population and the high assumption to a rate of 2.0 per 1,000 population during the projection. Rates are held constant throughout the projection.

These assumptions of emigration levels all comprise the same assumption on the composition of emigration according to various characteristics, which is based on estimates from 1995 to 2010 calculated from a linkage of data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) and immigration data. Analysis of these data shows that the characteristics of emigrants have remained stable over time. That is why only one assumptionNote 18 is proposed, suggesting a continuity in the differential emigration estimated from 1995 to 2010 into the future. According to this assumption, immigrants who have been in Canada for 15 years or less are more likely to emigrate than the rest of the population, with the exception of immigrants who arrived less than three years earlier and whose birthplace is not Western or Northern Europe, North America or Eastern Asia.

Net non-permanent residents

As with immigration and emigration, three assumptions were selected for future trends regarding net non-permanent residents.Note 19 These assumptions are largely consistent with those in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038).

The annual number of net non-permanent residents in a given province or territory published by the DEP between May 2011 and June 2016 is used for all three assumptions.Note 20 Therefore, the three assumptions do not diverge until July 2016. For the low assumption, the net non-permanent residents is assumed to be nil for the rest of the projection. The medium and high assumptions both propose a progressive decrease in the net non-permanent residents to zero, in July 2021 for the medium assumption and in July 2031 for the high assumption.

The provincial/territorial distributions of net non-permanent residents are different under the medium and high assumptions. They are based on the ones used in the medium and high assumptions found in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 21

Internal migration

Migration between the different parts of Canada has always been one of the most unstable components over time (Willbond 2014). Given that internal migration flows are particularly sensitive to various social and economic factors, they naturally change considerably and are difficult to project (Smith 1986). This component is the main factor behind the increase in certain parts of the country (Dion and Coulombe 2008). The uncertainty surrounding the future course of this component, combined with the importance it represents from a demographic standpoint, requires special attention. For this reason, four separate assumptions were selected for internal migration.

The first assumption is similar to the one used in the publication Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015). In this assumption, the contribution of internal migration to population growth in the different parts of the country is a reflection of what was observed on average during the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods. The other three assumptions differ in that the contribution of migration to the increase in particular parts of the country is not based on the average of the three periods, but on only one of them: 2006 to 2011 for the second assumption, 2001 to 2006 for the third, and 1996 to 2001 for the fourth.

Only one assumption was selected for the composition of migration flows. It is similar to the one used in the publication Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015).Note 22 It is consistent with the average composition of migration observed during the combined periods 2000/2001, 2005/2006 and 2010/2011.Note 23 Analysis of the data from the 2001 and 2006 censuses and the 2011 NHS shows that the composition of migration flows changes little over time.

This analysis shows that, in general, well-educated people, young adults between the ages of 15 and 34 and people without children are more likely to migrate than the rest of the population when several characteristics such as immigrant status, time elapsed since immigration, generation status and knowledge of official languages are controlled.Note 24 It also shows that immigrants, and in particular those who arrived recently in Canada, migrate more than non-immigrants. Moreover, the internal migration patterns of immigrants differ from those of non-immigrants. For example, immigrants are less likely to move to a non-metropolitan area (Figures 2a and 2b). The data also reveal that people who belong to a visible minority are less likely to migrate than the rest of the population, while people who know both English and French are more likely to migrate when the above variables are controlled. These results may naturally differ from one part of the country to the next (Dion and Coulombe 2008).

Description for Figure 2a

Data table for figure 2a

Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada

Part 1

Table summary

This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, St-John's, Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Rest of Nova Scotia, Moncton, Saint John, Rest of New Brunswick, Saguenay, Québec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) and Rest of Quebec, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec St-John's Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Halifax Rest of Nova Scotia Moncton Saint John Rest of New Brunswick Saguenay Québec Sherbrooke Trois-Rivières Montréal Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) Rest of Quebec number St-John's - 105 10 110 25 15 25 35 0 10 15 0 85 10 0 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 330 - 40 135 65 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 60 0 10 Prince Edward Island 20 10 - 100 60 25 15 45 0 0 0 0 15 45 10 Halifax 50 65 85 - 760 60 60 130 0 40 0 0 370 35 20 Rest of Nova Scotia 30 85 65 1,105 - 35 25 75 0 0 0 0 105 10 50 Moncton 20 0 10 85 40 - 20 245 10 10 25 20 225 15 20 Saint John 35 40 40 80 25 50 - 170 0 0 10 0 35 0 0 Rest of New Brunswick 10 35 40 250 130 285 250 - 0 80 0 0 415 20 20 Saguenay 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 80 40 10 310 60 160 Québec 10 10 0 25 0 25 25 130 80 - 110 125 3,075 510 1,310 Sherbrooke 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 10 0 165 - 15 1,790 180 450 Trois-Rivières 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130 30 - 790 60 335 Montréal 35 10 65 365 100 145 75 210 155 2,115 1,005 360 - 2,265 8,425 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 10 10 0 50 0 0 0 15 0 90 20 10 905 - 230 Rest of Quebec 15 10 15 10 35 15 10 35 65 1,165 585 250 6,865 390 - Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 50 10 30 380 215 80 40 125 15 165 65 10 2,310 3,550 175 Kingston 75 0 0 85 35 10 20 70 0 25 0 0 220 15 20 Peterborough 0 30 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 Oshawa 10 10 25 15 30 0 10 25 0 0 0 0 60 0 40 Toronto 225 225 195 1,170 645 150 85 445 0 120 40 25 6,400 300 300 Hamilton 35 30 30 120 90 20 10 75 0 15 10 0 400 30 45 St. Catharines - Niagara 10 10 10 50 30 0 10 20 0 10 0 0 175 25 0 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 30 0 0 80 90 10 25 35 0 0 0 10 300 45 15 Brantford 15 0 10 0 10 10 0 10 10 0 0 0 30 0 10 Guelph 0 0 35 30 35 0 20 10 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 London 10 0 10 135 10 10 15 50 0 10 0 0 355 15 0 Windsor 0 0 0 20 10 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 220 40 0 Barrie 10 0 10 0 20 0 10 50 0 10 0 0 45 10 15 Greater Sudbury 10 0 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 45 10 Thunder Bay 0 0 10 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 Rest of Ontario 15 60 75 140 215 20 85 225 15 25 0 0 730 140 175 Winnipeg 35 25 45 110 75 10 10 25 20 20 35 0 410 145 0 Rest of Manitoba 0 15 20 20 45 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 40 0 10 Regina 0 0 0 15 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 40 0 0 Saskatoon 10 0 15 20 65 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 155 10 10 Rest of Saskatchewan 0 0 0 15 35 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 65 0 20 Calgary 75 35 75 280 195 35 55 110 0 15 0 0 735 55 10 Edmonton 60 0 50 185 125 15 15 50 0 15 35 0 515 55 25 Rest of Alberta 25 85 55 95 110 0 15 50 10 15 0 0 150 40 35 Kelowna 0 10 10 0 10 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 40 0 15 Vancouver 60 30 20 375 150 15 50 145 0 25 20 0 2,890 45 60 Victoria 20 10 0 65 60 0 35 15 0 0 0 10 175 10 40 Abbotsford - Mission 0 0 0 10 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 Rest of British Columbia 50 10 75 115 260 35 25 95 0 30 0 0 215 10 90 Territories 0 20 0 25 45 15 0 40 0 0 0 0 45 0 10 Data table for figure 2a

Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada

Part 2

Table summary

This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Ontario, Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part), Kingston, Peterborough, Oshawa, Toronto, Hamilton, St. Catharines - Niagara, Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Brantford, Guelph, London, Windsor, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Rest of Ontario, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Ontario Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) Kingston Peterborough Oshawa Toronto Hamilton St. Catharines - Niagara Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Brantford Guelph London Windsor Barrie Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay Rest of Ontario number St-John's 120 15 0 15 360 30 40 45 10 0 10 0 0 10 0 65 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 130 0 0 10 210 10 20 35 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 110 Prince Edward Island 65 0 0 0 240 20 0 65 10 0 45 100 15 0 0 85 Halifax 635 75 10 55 1,855 205 25 125 0 40 70 120 55 0 10 205 Rest of Nova Scotia 165 40 0 70 495 50 25 30 0 50 95 40 25 30 25 390 Moncton 75 0 0 10 210 25 20 15 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 55 Saint John 75 10 20 0 255 0 35 10 0 10 15 40 15 0 0 55 Rest of New Brunswick 260 60 55 40 585 70 25 75 0 0 45 25 25 20 0 270 Saguenay 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 Québec 250 30 10 45 435 90 0 45 0 0 20 35 10 0 0 100 Sherbrooke 115 0 0 10 320 85 60 25 0 50 20 10 0 0 0 35 Trois-Rivières 15 0 0 0 25 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 Montréal 4,955 400 80 290 15,585 965 160 655 120 205 485 500 160 110 40 1,750 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 2,225 10 0 10 175 10 20 25 55 0 40 0 0 0 0 170 Rest of Quebec 235 25 10 10 360 80 30 80 0 10 40 10 55 30 0 215 Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) - 390 55 230 8,550 810 195 745 40 100 375 310 110 105 105 3,170 Kingston 855 - 30 95 2,105 230 60 130 10 40 105 15 55 15 35 845 Peterborough 130 50 - 400 1,145 30 30 35 10 70 40 0 30 0 10 625 Oshawa 245 35 310 - 6,215 235 135 205 70 50 130 50 125 20 0 1,775 Toronto 8,065 1,470 1,335 15,600 - 17,700 4,580 10,225 1,030 3,410 4,665 3,355 7,435 545 355 20,985 Hamilton 670 160 55 240 14,060 - 1,585 1,020 725 360 525 360 245 45 25 3,270 St. Catharines - Niagara 360 65 25 90 4,190 1,525 - 375 80 235 190 135 75 45 25 830 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 500 125 55 210 7,465 985 175 - 450 940 590 305 45 40 25 2,800 Brantford 30 0 0 35 650 650 50 265 - 75 95 40 10 10 0 630 Guelph 250 30 0 10 2,475 435 75 1,170 60 - 115 30 20 25 20 1,090 London 615 85 30 125 6,485 820 125 820 95 305 - 475 100 50 20 2,895 Windsor 445 30 15 75 3,970 410 105 525 10 130 675 - 25 15 10 1,370 Barrie 100 60 15 155 2,550 190 100 85 70 50 130 50 - 10 0 1,515 Greater Sudbury 210 25 15 30 825 90 100 115 0 10 20 20 65 - 0 465 Thunder Bay 70 115 10 15 330 25 30 25 0 10 10 20 35 15 - 235 Rest of Ontario 2,835 975 665 1,330 10,920 2,120 940 2,245 745 760 3,400 1,890 1,345 485 455 - Winnipeg 635 55 0 95 2,725 155 215 280 10 30 215 45 25 25 30 355 Rest of Manitoba 85 25 0 10 455 20 15 35 0 0 100 0 75 20 30 355 Regina 100 20 0 10 360 110 30 85 0 0 25 40 0 0 0 35 Saskatoon 195 25 0 15 455 40 35 45 15 30 100 50 0 0 30 30 Rest of Saskatchewan 60 0 0 35 235 50 15 65 30 0 30 20 10 20 0 170 Calgary 650 75 25 105 3,720 285 135 350 20 35 250 235 30 30 85 455 Edmonton 660 125 0 50 2,230 185 105 195 20 70 225 100 35 0 20 315 Rest of Alberta 180 40 65 35 580 50 30 120 0 0 115 65 10 15 25 525 Kelowna 20 0 0 10 70 20 15 0 0 0 15 10 0 10 0 40 Vancouver 1,835 370 30 170 11,605 545 185 750 10 170 385 325 85 40 120 725 Victoria 325 20 10 65 685 40 85 140 10 0 25 0 30 0 15 155 Abbotsford - Mission 20 15 0 0 340 25 30 30 10 0 0 10 10 0 0 55 Rest of British Columbia 370 80 20 15 575 70 125 65 20 30 150 60 55 0 75 535 Territories 150 0 0 10 140 10 25 35 0 0 25 10 20 0 10 110 Data table for figure 2a

Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada

Part 3

Table summary

This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories, Winnipeg, Rest of Manitoba, Regina, Saskatoon, Rest of Saskatchewan, Calgary, Edmonton, Rest of Alberta, Kelowna, Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford - Mission, Rest of British Columbia and Territories, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories Winnipeg Rest of Manitoba Regina Saskatoon Rest of Saskatchewan Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta Kelowna Vancouver Victoria Abbotsford - Mission Rest of British Columbia Territories number St-John's 55 65 10 0 0 150 200 35 10 105 25 0 25 15 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 40 10 10 10 15 35 30 200 10 90 25 0 30 15 Prince Edward Island 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 85 0 120 0 0 45 0 Halifax 150 25 20 20 15 780 280 115 45 405 130 0 145 20 Rest of Nova Scotia 55 15 0 0 30 190 140 130 15 210 160 25 190 35 Moncton 0 10 0 0 0 75 80 10 0 20 15 10 15 0 Saint John 15 0 0 15 0 170 50 10 0 85 0 0 15 10 Rest of New Brunswick 40 45 0 15 30 135 335 200 0 95 50 0 75 20 Saguenay 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 40 0 25 0 0 0 10 Québec 30 0 30 0 0 260 120 115 20 145 10 0 35 0 Sherbrooke 15 0 10 0 10 220 85 65 0 40 0 15 25 20 Trois-Rivières 0 0 0 0 0 65 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Montréal 505 65 110 435 50 4,525 3,080 495 125 3,640 290 105 475 55 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 20 0 0 0 0 95 50 15 0 25 15 0 25 10 Rest of Quebec 30 25 0 45 0 140 165 50 25 105 15 60 85 75 Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 325 65 85 80 80 1,420 1,140 185 245 1,760 465 15 430 100 Kingston 40 15 10 30 15 180 200 45 0 380 55 10 85 0 Peterborough 10 0 0 10 0 60 10 75 20 60 10 0 55 10 Oshawa 15 10 0 15 0 75 100 35 10 110 40 20 75 10 Toronto 1,785 550 1,015 1,290 270 10,645 8,520 2,875 395 11,175 1,165 340 1,675 425 Hamilton 240 35 65 100 95 435 745 310 35 735 185 40 280 35 St. Catharines - Niagara 35 15 0 35 20 425 415 230 10 325 155 20 165 20 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 115 10 70 30 0 530 335 275 15 410 150 45 150 10 Brantford 10 10 0 0 10 65 25 10 10 85 10 0 0 0 Guelph 40 0 0 90 0 115 80 30 25 205 55 30 70 0 London 100 55 45 15 25 895 630 260 60 670 205 15 205 20 Windsor 70 10 15 90 15 980 535 175 30 595 10 50 85 10 Barrie 10 0 0 0 0 65 95 30 30 75 35 10 130 15 Greater Sudbury 10 0 0 10 10 65 25 40 15 35 0 0 35 0 Thunder Bay 65 35 0 15 0 70 120 65 35 70 75 10 80 0 Rest of Ontario 275 395 50 70 215 740 690 1,365 125 765 230 30 965 85 Winnipeg - 2,155 65 205 95 2,470 2,005 480 230 2,675 290 135 640 60 Rest of Manitoba 2,905 - 25 70 210 165 310 610 120 270 35 15 465 25 Regina 130 35 - 235 555 665 225 150 65 275 45 20 90 15 Saskatoon 215 50 270 - 610 790 535 400 95 610 145 30 300 10 Rest of Saskatchewan 125 175 610 930 - 325 385 665 25 220 35 55 350 20 Calgary 520 110 295 410 295 - 3,760 6,525 685 4,845 830 250 3,020 105 Edmonton 345 80 170 210 225 4,795 - 3,900 615 3,535 805 180 1,775 255 Rest of Alberta 175 460 185 170 580 6,725 6,370 - 315 1,120 265 130 1,980 110 Kelowna 60 10 30 10 40 330 170 110 - 1,145 210 135 1,310 10 Vancouver 1,060 110 360 415 205 6,400 3,910 1,510 1,800 - 3,240 4,665 13,860 320 Victoria 65 0 30 50 15 530 260 220 235 3,285 - 125 3,085 50 Abbotsford - Mission 40 65 10 30 15 380 215 110 175 3,745 130 - 1,855 10 Rest of British Columbia 230 75 40 120 350 2,075 1,345 1,725 2,035 9,500 3,185 1,790 - 195 Territories 70 35 0 50 20 215 405 270 25 215 110 10 400 -

Description for Figure 2b

Data table for figure 2b

Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada

Part 1

Table summary

This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, St-John's, Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Rest of Nova Scotia, Moncton, Saint John, Rest of New Brunswick, Saguenay, Québec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) and Rest of Quebec, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec St-John's Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Halifax Rest of Nova Scotia Moncton Saint John Rest of New Brunswick Saguenay Québec Sherbrooke Trois-Rivières Montréal Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) Rest of Quebec number St-John's - 8,630 155 2,000 895 205 160 555 0 35 15 0 575 90 95 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 17,010 - 625 2,520 2,155 460 290 1,080 15 135 10 20 320 20 485 Prince Edward Island 335 490 - 1,985 1,330 690 380 1,250 0 65 20 0 355 140 250 Halifax 2,130 2,385 2,155 - 25,080 2,095 1,425 3,300 160 495 90 10 2,365 400 645 Rest of Nova Scotia 1,250 2,165 1,705 28,445 - 2,025 1,025 4,030 10 165 145 15 875 125 505 Moncton 210 245 565 2,385 1,480 - 1,060 12,270 10 300 80 35 1,105 270 400 Saint John 895 875 385 2,040 750 1,830 - 5,970 0 10 10 0 310 80 40 Rest of New Brunswick 775 1,510 1,700 4,990 4,270 16,760 6,605 - 105 1,750 155 85 3,240 780 2,885 Saguenay 0 40 0 165 75 45 0 90 - 6,130 810 445 7,910 960 9,445 Québec 40 20 130 520 175 365 65 1,660 3,500 - 2,395 2,505 28,855 5,010 49,245 Sherbrooke 25 10 0 90 65 145 15 200 320 3,590 - 625 12,290 925 19,425 Trois-Rivières 0 20 0 0 10 15 0 85 290 3,385 865 - 9,705 755 15,080 Montréal 380 115 370 1,705 995 1,130 295 3,015 4,240 25,680 11,585 6,670 - 11,305 208,085 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 30 40 115 230 70 145 15 510 325 2,705 560 385 9,335 - 11,065 Rest of Quebec 175 220 185 435 535 605 120 2,390 10,880 64,220 23,395 18,320 138,395 13,160 - Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 1,020 650 745 3,755 1,580 990 350 1,740 85 905 225 30 7,710 14,510 2,535 Kingston 315 160 80 1,315 435 105 120 735 45 400 0 0 875 470 120 Peterborough 30 100 60 155 290 15 20 240 0 15 0 0 200 10 35 Oshawa 155 830 325 365 480 60 180 355 0 45 30 15 525 45 380 Toronto 2,985 6,690 1,800 6,535 4,560 1,525 900 3,305 35 915 215 120 16,170 1,055 2,070 Hamilton 465 390 485 975 1,000 245 190 710 0 65 35 0 1,100 245 305 St. Catharines - Niagara 175 155 180 550 715 140 60 410 0 30 25 15 560 140 270 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 730 1,175 110 580 1,010 215 130 290 0 120 30 0 955 70 295 Brantford 10 80 55 90 250 90 120 120 15 25 0 0 135 25 145 Guelph 210 105 180 250 345 95 65 170 0 15 25 0 410 60 120 London 240 165 155 850 460 150 130 550 45 60 20 10 1,050 105 185 Windsor 70 100 60 370 150 35 95 155 0 70 45 0 420 140 230 Barrie 145 335 140 585 320 90 45 335 15 35 15 0 290 65 280 Greater Sudbury 35 55 120 285 145 50 35 165 20 60 0 0 290 330 375 Thunder Bay 105 80 15 120 155 30 35 50 0 0 0 10 160 50 125 Rest of Ontario 1,015 2,405 930 4,415 4,460 640 425 4,725 435 1,025 215 155 4,975 2,695 4,980 Winnipeg 820 705 190 980 675 115 140 565 170 185 75 20 1,300 385 220 Rest of Manitoba 175 740 120 330 485 75 65 625 0 115 0 0 335 85 340 Regina 75 70 70 240 90 30 15 120 0 80 45 10 335 55 155 Saskatoon 40 35 85 330 225 40 30 115 0 40 0 0 560 55 65 Rest of Saskatchewan 90 230 60 220 555 130 35 245 55 120 40 0 405 20 255 Calgary 1,710 980 835 2,645 2,755 690 1,000 1,750 0 390 95 20 2,905 370 800 Edmonton 1,155 1,420 720 1,890 2,200 630 460 2,195 65 480 270 70 1,965 515 920 Rest of Alberta 1,900 5,190 795 1,980 3,720 685 670 1,955 185 580 95 105 1,115 310 1,020 Kelowna 60 10 75 90 75 20 15 145 0 30 15 0 160 0 165 Vancouver 600 355 285 2,235 1,170 310 285 765 40 490 60 55 6,130 345 825 Victoria 175 85 160 1,440 755 40 40 220 30 180 20 0 900 285 245 Abbotsford - Mission 30 30 110 90 115 15 25 110 0 10 10 0 170 0 80 Rest of British Columbia 545 935 430 1,385 2,040 360 400 1,135 180 205 150 20 1,630 230 1,000 Territories 420 820 160 370 920 80 40 465 15 55 25 10 270 190 360 Data table for figure 2b

Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada

Part 2

Table summary

This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Ontario, Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part), Kingston, Peterborough, Oshawa, Toronto, Hamilton, St. Catharines - Niagara, Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Brantford, Guelph, London, Windsor, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Rest of Ontario, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Ontario Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) Kingston Peterborough Oshawa Toronto Hamilton St. Catharines - Niagara Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Brantford Guelph London Windsor Barrie Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay Rest of Ontario number St-John's 1,220 345 55 235 2,025 245 110 435 40 45 305 80 150 100 50 990 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 745 205 35 320 2,645 205 245 835 105 175 215 60 205 80 65 1,820 Prince Edward Island 805 155 45 120 1,260 260 120 210 55 85 180 30 140 25 10 795 Halifax 6,440 885 165 585 7,355 965 255 810 95 180 630 240 505 140 125 3,645 Rest of Nova Scotia 2,235 545 150 445 2,830 700 325 720 170 245 565 105 220 140 150 4,350 Moncton 1,075 140 30 110 980 205 100 65 10 45 120 55 40 30 10 635 Saint John 505 75 10 125 910 330 115 80 15 45 165 60 65 10 0 720 Rest of New Brunswick 2,565 855 240 405 2,660 305 225 495 110 105 425 135 460 335 70 4,955 Saguenay 140 55 0 0 85 10 0 0 20 0 20 0 30 15 0 530 Québec 1,655 490 55 75 1,290 115 60 110 30 20 60 60 95 25 0 1,340 Sherbrooke 370 65 0 20 485 55 55 60 0 60 30 20 15 20 10 435 Trois-Rivières 60 30 0 10 105 0 15 35 0 10 20 0 0 0 0 90 Montréal 12,135 1,230 270 1,015 23,155 1,850 525 1,415 200 585 1,250 695 360 370 175 7,830 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 10,495 130 15 65 685 65 90 150 70 10 165 35 15 115 20 2,605 Rest of Quebec 2,175 335 65 330 1,485 300 175 345 25 40 200 150 130 280 115 5,780 Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) - 4,640 960 1,365 20,255 2,545 1,295 2,305 395 725 2,220 825 1,115 1,420 730 41,465 Kingston 5,815 - 385 615 8,225 1,035 395 770 105 280 910 160 325 200 110 13,100 Peterborough 1,680 780 - 2,160 4,710 565 315 465 225 260 610 140 420 145 130 9,890 Oshawa 1,760 450 2,840 - 22,060 1,210 740 985 260 540 885 370 1,045 350 215 20,660 Toronto 21,600 6,490 6,880 53,720 - 51,420 12,385 22,660 3,560 12,395 14,265 5,100 30,895 3,920 1,735 110,815 Hamilton 2,950 815 620 1,310 34,140 - 9,060 5,140 6,605 2,535 3,345 755 1,435 635 245 24,615 St. Catharines - Niagara 1,655 665 345 1,015 10,885 8,230 - 2,135 745 785 1,995 525 590 300 395 10,855 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 2,740 765 455 895 19,220 4,405 1,225 - 3,935 5,030 3,685 800 1,095 550 410 27,640 Brantford 270 145 120 240 2,520 3,155 480 2,325 - 280 1,110 205 330 140 40 8,105 Guelph 1,405 350 230 290 9,455 2,220 500 6,705 505 - 1,100 290 380 335 115 9,890 London 3,230 1,070 535 915 17,995 2,890 1,310 4,290 1,030 1,280 - 2,180 955 565 235 29,070 Windsor 1,120 325 165 620 8,555 1,065 655 1,395 285 455 3,655 - 305 250 100 13,975 Barrie 1,105 590 375 820 12,395 1,225 640 820 235 290 1,055 315 - 680 140 18,335 Greater Sudbury 2,795 355 175 575 4,110 590 600 795 100 205 760 310 1,085 - 270 11,550 Thunder Bay 800 310 90 200 1,900 310 275 230 160 150 335 80 350 320 - 5,860 Rest of Ontario 36,535 15,185 11,520 13,995 53,585 16,945 10,775 22,915 7,225 8,250 32,720 13,795 17,290 13,945 9,340 - Winnipeg 3,215 615 50 290 5,785 690 420 555 50 260 735 200 365 145 800 4,605 Rest of Manitoba 765 175 30 50 985 145 115 200 80 65 185 85 120 250 295 2,730 Regina 705 35 10 30 765 155 45 120 10 120 125 40 40 20 20 510 Saskatoon 675 160 50 45 1,065 150 200 120 20 80 150 165 70 40 85 645 Rest of Saskatchewan 380 60 60 70 635 445 225 230 85 45 115 85 125 90 80 1,810 Calgary 3,400 680 275 730 10,010 1,645 680 1,455 215 310 1,375 515 320 250 600 5,235 Edmonton 3,480 1,055 160 345 5,350 750 390 610 130 230 1,055 280 415 295 460 4,245 Rest of Alberta 1,880 645 290 420 2,530 740 690 630 120 215 745 280 580 380 355 6,475 Kelowna 315 15 50 65 530 85 180 95 30 15 205 30 15 65 90 565 Vancouver 5,545 780 235 735 17,985 1,870 955 1,360 175 480 1,365 615 495 285 545 4,245 Victoria 2,620 385 90 170 2,255 300 215 370 40 125 325 60 120 30 270 1,745 Abbotsford - Mission 105 40 10 50 565 120 70 110 10 15 45 35 15 35 30 335 Rest of British Columbia 2,470 555 335 420 3,010 760 645 510 160 415 820 315 435 455 540 6,470 Territories 1,080 150 20 110 430 120 175 150 30 0 50 45 50 110 110 1,485 Data table for figure 2b

Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada

Part 3

Table summary

This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories, Winnipeg, Rest of Manitoba, Regina, Saskatoon, Rest of Saskatchewan, Calgary, Edmonton, Rest of Alberta, Kelowna, Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford - Mission, Rest of British Columbia and Territories, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories Winnipeg Rest of Manitoba Regina Saskatoon Rest of Saskatchewan Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta Kelowna Vancouver Victoria Abbotsford - Mission Rest of British Columbia Territories number St-John's 220 260 80 55 85 1,655 2,085 2,400 70 1,180 270 25 490 575 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 310 340 160 90 610 1,615 2,645 11,715 45 325 195 10 980 1,305 Prince Edward Island 100 175 75 20 50 1,080 885 1,415 120 340 170 15 485 210 Halifax 865 370 200 250 260 4,520 3,510 3,430 150 2,400 1,470 75 1,265 830 Rest of Nova Scotia 865 465 165 150 855 3,590 3,665 6,965 330 1,355 660 85 2,465 825 Moncton 180 85 10 30 55 835 640 900 50 195 85 20 230 155 Saint John 120 100 60 85 60 885 1,105 865 0 270 115 35 225 80 Rest of New Brunswick 470 870 190 150 415 2,400 3,115 5,160 75 800 470 35 1,525 440 Saguenay 65 0 0 0 10 45 160 175 10 90 30 0 135 20 Québec 240 135 80 50 105 895 925 855 60 625 150 55 540 185 Sherbrooke 25 55 10 20 35 340 235 165 35 225 55 25 80 30 Trois-Rivières 0 20 0 10 0 215 105 70 0 50 30 0 100 25 Montréal 1,240 355 270 870 450 7,480 5,130 1,855 295 7,670 1,170 150 2,065 575 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 175 65 40 20 130 280 395 180 0 200 85 15 285 140 Rest of Quebec 230 310 45 125 255 1,030 1,340 1,530 180 855 220 185 1,640 350 Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 1,500 430 505 480 380 4,120 3,155 2,105 705 6,180 2,480 180 2,465 885 Kingston 320 200 90 190 150 1,225 1,125 755 75 1,200 600 45 665 185 Peterborough 80 60 35 75 85 345 255 515 100 420 100 0 410 125 Oshawa 160 140 0 105 80 1,000 720 765 90 895 175 75 475 110 Toronto 3,550 1,115 1,630 2,285 1,085 19,550 13,250 7,305 1,480 22,050 3,930 585 6,490 1,195 Hamilton 755 215 125 210 285 1,870 2,005 1,575 320 2,390 585 255 1,600 190 St. Catharines - Niagara 545 105 100 195 175 1,250 1,370 1,225 105 1,185 355 110 955 100 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 475 200 390 200 225 1,970 1,030 1,125 215 1,385 550 60 995 210 Brantford 65 90 10 15 15 255 285 275 40 350 110 0 280 20 Guelph 150 35 75 180 35 950 495 355 55 940 155 45 215 75 London 465 200 105 220 170 2,565 1,890 1,590 205 2,515 835 120 1,405 110 Windsor 225 90 90 285 195 2,135 1,440 935 75 1,415 285 75 570 50 Barrie 85 235 125 30 75 815 510 630 80 515 295 0 685 85 Greater Sudbury 130 150 0 65 120 435 480 595 25 325 125 15 365 100 Thunder Bay 935 350 25 75 235 1,410 995 1,060 240 545 155 110 685 150 Rest of Ontario 4,600 3,240 560 1,000 2,400 6,885 7,265 12,980 825 4,940 2,880 360 9,310 1,350 Winnipeg - 33,085 1,215 1,240 1,750 8,625 6,670 5,310 1,405 6,850 1,865 460 3,900 660 Rest of Manitoba 37,470 - 915 1,590 5,290 3,100 2,895 6,405 480 1,325 460 265 2,935 390 Regina 1,280 840 - 4,185 14,100 4,890 2,695 3,795 515 1,500 560 175 1,550 175 Saskatoon 1,340 1,525 4,910 - 22,185 6,085 4,995 5,840 685 1,900 805 255 3,160 315 Rest of Saskatchewan 1,790 4,235 18,525 27,810 - 5,115 5,775 21,030 675 1,455 395 310 4,435 665 Calgary 4,315 2,355 2,785 5,150 6,650 - 19,250 63,480 6,700 15,450 6,090 1,120 25,185 1,000 Edmonton 2,950 1,880 1,785 2,590 5,495 23,575 - 56,790 4,430 12,585 4,545 1,020 18,350 1,965 Rest of Alberta 2,280 4,395 2,020 4,495 16,940 50,355 74,220 - 3,795 6,215 3,000 925 28,125 2,010 Kelowna 395 245 285 405 620 3,775 2,175 2,665 - 6,410 1,845 795 13,335 270 Vancouver 3,440 1,165 1,240 1,770 1,550 16,205 10,400 7,140 10,785 - 14,395 22,580 82,080 1,520 Victoria 855 285 320 450 640 3,855 2,895 2,800 1,425 14,780 - 565 23,745 485 Abbotsford - Mission 515 515 110 275 265 1,465 1,300 1,525 1,635 15,190 850 - 15,490 90 Rest of British Columbia 2,125 1,925 950 1,705 5,720 19,185 17,265 33,980 18,660 50,270 26,175 9,830 - 2,570 Territories 630 640 155 535 570 1,435 2,915 3,490 190 1,160 585 160 3,410 -

Fertility

A key determinant of population growth, fertility—along with mortality—also plays a key role in the evolution of the population’s age structure. For this projection exercise, three assumptions on the average number of children per woman were selected. These assumptions, which reflect the ones used in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a),Note 25 highlight the uncertainty behind the future trends of this component. These three assumptions are based on a target for the average number of children per woman (total fertility rate, or TFR) being reached in 2021. Under the low assumption, the TFR of 1.61 children per woman estimated in 2011 progressively decreases to 1.53 children per woman in 2021. The medium and high assumptions involve the progressive attainment of a TFR of 1.67 and 1.88 children per woman, respectively, in 2021. Fertility rates by age are adjusted proportionally over time to reach the target annual TFR .Note 26

Only one assumption was retained with regard to differential fertility based on various characteristics (visible minority group, religion, birthplace, time elapsed since immigration, etc.) of women of child-bearing age: that fertility differences between the projected groups, as estimated in 2010/2011, are maintained. The decision to use only one assumption was based on an analysis of past trends that reveals that fertility differences between the groups are exceptionally persistent over time (Morency and Caron-Malenfant 2014). It is noteworthy that people in relationships, recent immigrants and people of Muslim and Jewish faith are more likely to give birth to a child than people who are not in a relationship, members of the Chinese, Japanese or Korean visible minority groups, and Orthodox Christians and unaffiliated people (Bélanger and Gilbert 2003; Caron-Malenfant and Bélanger 2006).

Assigning ethnocultural characteristics to newborns

Increases in specific population subgroups depend not only on the fertility of the women who belong to the groups, but also on the “transmission” of characteristics to children, since newborns do not necessarily have the same characteristics as their mother.Note 27 This is particularly true for visible minority group, religion and language variables, for which the probability of transmission is the subject of a separate assumption in each case.Note 28

Assigning each of these characteristics to newborns is based on assumptions that are similar in every case. Visible minority group, religion, mother tongue and language spoken most often at homeNote 29 are assigned by supposing that transmission patterns are identical to those estimated for the youngest children and their mother in the 2011 NHS .

The decision to use only one assumption to assign each of these characteristics was based on an analysis of recent trends between the 2001 and 2006 censuses and the 2011 NHS (for religion, only the 2001 Census and the 2011 NHS ), which shows a high level of stability in the transmission rates of visible minority group, religion, mother tongue and language spoken most often at home.Note 30 For example, Figure 3 presents the proportion of children under the age of one with the same visible minority group as their mother for three different periods.

Description for Figure 3

Data table for figure 3

Proportion of children under the age of one belonging to the same visible minority group as their mother, Canada, 2001, 2006 and 2011

Table summary

This table displays the results of Proportion of children under the age of one belonging to the same visible minority group as their mother. The information is grouped by Visible minority group (appearing as row headers), 2001, 2006 and 2011, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers). Visible minority group 2001 2006 2011 percent Chinese 95 93 93 South Asian 95 95 95 Black 93 93 95 Arab 92 90 91 West Asian 87 86 88 Southeast Asian 86 83 79 Korean 86 84 86 Filipino 83 83 86 Japanese 68 74 74 Latin American 57 59 62

Mortality

As with fertility, three assumptions were selected for mortality rates by age and sex at the national level. These rates by age and sex change in the same way as those used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 31 These assumptions reflect major increases in life expectancy from 1981 to 2010 (Martel 2013; Greenberg and Normandin 2011), but also the uncertainty associated with its growth rate in the future.

In the low assumption, the life expectancy at birth of 79.2 years for men and 83.5 years for women that were seen in 2011 would rise to 83.5 yearsNote 32 for men and 86.1 years for women in 2036 under the low growth scenario.Note 33 In the medium assumption, they would be 84.6 years for men and 87.2 years for women in 2036 in the reference scenario, and finally, 86.2 years for men and 89.0 years for women in the high assumption in the high growth scenario.

Only one assumption was selected to take into account differential mortality between the various groups that make up the population. Using data from the Canadian census mortality follow-up study, 1991 through 2006, it assumes, among other things, that the mortality of immigrants—and of recent immigrants in particular—is lower than for people born in Canada (Figure 4), and that this difference tends to decrease with the years since immigration. These results are consistent with those observed in the literature (Vang et al. 2015; Omariba et al. 2014; Trovato and Odynak 2011). It is also assumed that mortality is lower for both men and women among the most highly educated (Tjepkema et al. 2012) and members of a visible minority group. In this assumption, differential mortality would remain unchanged throughout the projected period.

Description for Figure 4

Data table for figure 4

Life expectancy at birth by immigrant status and sex, reference scenario, Canada, 2011 (estimated) to 2036 (projected)

Table summary

This table displays the results of Life expectancy at birth by immigrant status and sex. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Non-immigrant, Immigrant, Total, Males and Females, calculated using in years units of measure (appearing as column headers). Year Non-immigrant Immigrant Total Males Females Total Males Females in years 2011 80.9 78.5 83.1 83.3 81.5 85.0 2012 81.1 78.8 83.3 83.5 81.6 85.1 2013 81.3 79.0 83.4 83.6 82.0 85.1 2014 81.5 79.3 83.6 84.0 82.2 85.5 2015 81.6 79.4 83.7 83.5 82.0 84.9 2016 81.8 79.7 83.9 84.3 82.7 85.8 2017 82.0 79.8 84.1 84.3 82.7 85.8 2018 82.3 80.3 84.2 84.3 82.7 85.8 2019 82.4 80.4 84.3 84.6 83.2 85.9 2020 82.6 80.6 84.5 84.8 83.3 86.2 2021 82.8 80.8 84.6 84.8 83.3 86.3 2022 83.0 81.1 84.8 85.1 83.7 86.4 2023 83.2 81.3 85.0 85.1 83.5 86.6 2024 83.3 81.4 85.2 85.6 84.1 86.9 2025 83.5 81.7 85.3 85.8 84.3 87.1 2026 83.7 82.0 85.4 86.0 84.8 87.0 2027 83.8 82.1 85.5 86.0 84.8 87.1 2028 84.0 82.3 85.7 86.2 85.0 87.3 2029 84.2 82.6 85.8 86.4 85.1 87.5 2030 84.3 82.7 85.9 86.5 85.1 87.7 2031 84.5 82.9 86.0 86.5 85.3 87.7 2032 84.7 83.1 86.2 86.7 85.4 87.8 2033 84.8 83.3 86.3 86.9 85.6 88.1 2034 85.0 83.5 86.4 87.1 86.0 88.2 2035 85.1 83.7 86.5 87.2 86.2 88.1 2036 85.3 83.8 86.7 87.2 86.2 88.1

Intragenerational language changes Note 34

It has been observed over time that some people change their language spoken most often at home and that the resulting intragenerational language changes affect the relative size of the country’s language groups. To take into account these language changes during a person’s lifetime, one assumption was selected for changes in the language spoken most often at home.

The assumption retained is based on the data from the micromatched file of the 2001 and 2006 censuses. It supposes that changes can occur up to 50 years of age. The probabilities of changing the language spoken most often at home are measured separately by mother tongue and the language spoken most often in the original home, place of residence (Quebec or outside Quebec) and immigrant status (immigrant or non-immigrant). These characteristics are critical in the change models. Analyses have shown that the people most likely to see a change in their language spoken most often at home are immigrants who arrived at a young age and second-generation persons whose mother tongue is neither English nor French. Corbeil and Houle (2014) have shown that, among immigrants in Quebec, transfers of the language spoken most often at home generally take place within the first five years following their arrival in Canada, while for second-generation persons, transfers generally occur before the age of 10. In Canada outside Quebec, most transfers of the language spoken most often at home are toward English, but in Quebec, these transfers are toward French and, to a lesser extent, English (Corbeil and Houle 2014; Sabourin and Bélanger 2015).Note 35

Intragenerational religious mobility

In recent decades, a substantial portion of the changes in the size of some religious groups, particularly Catholic, certain Protestant groups and unaffiliated, has not been attributable to the factors of population growth, i.e. , fertility, mortality and migration. In fact, these changes appear to be tied to changes in religion that could occur during an individual’s lifetime; in other words, intragenerational religious mobilityNote 36 (Caron-Malenfant et al. forthcoming; Statistics Canada 2010).

An analysis using the residual method applied to censuses and the NHS revealed that levels of intragenerational religious mobility for certain religions were not constant over time (Caron-Malenfant et al. forthcoming), and as a result, future trends for this component were highly uncertain. For this reason, two assumptions were selected. The first involves maintaining the trends in intragenerational religious mobility estimated between the 2001 Census and the 2011 NHS throughout the projection. These trends were particularly unfavourable to the growth of the Catholic and Protestant groups, but particularly favourable to the growth of the “other Christian” group (other than Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christian) and people who are unaffiliated. The second assumption consists of maintaining the trends observed between the 1991 and 2001 censuses, which are less unfavourable to the growth of the Catholic and Protestant populations and thus less favourable to the “other Christian” group and unaffiliated people.

Other assumptions

Other assumptions that relate to specific components in the background of the projection model (level of education, marital status) or that are more specifically related to the Aboriginal populations (ethnic mobility of Aboriginal people) were also used for this projection exercise. The assumptions for the Aboriginal populations are the same as the ones used for the constant fertility scenario in Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015). The assumptions relating to level of education and marital status are also identical to the ones used in the Aboriginal projections (Statistics Canada 2015).

These assumptions are as follows:

A gradual levelling-off of the upward trend in education of the population and maintenance of the differences between the projected groups;

A gradual slowdown of the upward trend in the probability of not being in a union and, among people in a union, the upward trend in the probability of living common-law;

Maintenance of the fertility differences between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations until 2036;

Maintenance of the differences in life expectancy between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations until 2036;

Nil international migration for the Aboriginal population;

Maintenance of the intergenerational transmission rates for the Aboriginal group, estimated in 2011, until 2036;

Maintenance of the intragenerational ethnic mobility rates of Aboriginal people, estimated from 1996 to 2011, until 2036.

Scenarios

This section shows how the assumptions relating to each component were combined to create the scenarios used for this projection exercise. Although many scenarios can be constructed, only 12 were used. Of that number, seven are analyzed in this report. The other five are only used to provide data users with an assessment of the sensitivity of the results to certain factors aside from those explicitly considered in the analysis.

Scenarios analyzed in this report

The seven scenarios analyzed in this report were chosen on the basis of their plausibility and relevance to the purpose of the analysis: to assess the influence of various characteristics of immigration on the future ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s population. Below is a description of each scenario analyzed in the report (Table 2).Note 37

The reference scenario combines the following: a medium immigration level of 8.3 immigrants per 1,000 population, a provincial or territorial distribution of new immigrants upon arrival representative of the distribution estimated between July 2010 and June 2015, medium emigration, a progressive decrease in the net change in the number of non-permanent residents to 0 by 2021, a medium fertility rate of 1.67 children per woman, medium growth in life expectancy, internal migration patterns representative of the average estimated during the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods and, finally, net intragenerational religious mobility based on the period from 2001 to 2011.

The reference scenario is designated as such not because of its better predictive capacity (see the “Cautionary note” section), but because it is a central scenario on which the other scenarios were constructed. The six other scenarios in the analysis differ from the reference scenario by only one component: immigration level (scenarios 2 and 3), geographic distribution of immigrants in Canada at the time of arrival (scenarios 4 and 5), geographic origin of immigrants (scenario 6) and intragenerational religious mobility (scenario 7). This last scenario is slightly apart from the others since it is not designed to assess the sensitivity of ethnocultural diversity to a characteristic of immigration. It was included here because projection results for religion will be presented in the analysis, and because failing to take into account the sensitivity of the results to intragenerational religious mobility would overlook the high level of uncertainty associated with this component.

Other scenarios

The main purpose of the scenarios presented above is to produce plausible variations in the components that affect the future composition of Canada’s population. However, aside from the ones that propose different immigration levels (low and high immigration), these scenarios can provide only a fairly limited range of results with regard to the size and future geographic distribution of the population. Therefore, it is also important to produce variations with regard to the components of population growth (fertility, mortality and, at the regional level, internal migration). That is precisely the rationale behind the following five scenarios presented in Table 3Note 38. The results of these five additional scenarios are presented in the appendix.

Two scenarios (8 and 9)Note 39 differ from the reference scenario for all demographic components (immigration, emigration, net change in the number of non-permanent residents, fertility and mortality) in order to provide a maximum range of the future trends in population size. The other three scenarios (10, 11 and 12) differ from the reference scenario only insofar as they assume that net interregional migration contributes to population growth in different regions to reflect different historical periods. The last three scenarios are meant to highlight the sensitivity of the results to different levels of internal migration on the future geographic distribution of the regions’ populations.

Cautionary note

Readers are reminded that this projection exercise comprises two objectives: 1) to assess the future sensitivity of the composition of Canada’s population, using various indicators of ethnocultural diversity, to certain aspects relating mainly to immigration, and 2) to provide a plausible range of the possible growth of Canada’s population and its regions.

The “Analysis of results” section addresses the first objective, and seven scenarios have been selected to that end. Sometimes the results of the five additional scenarios—which are only presented in the appendix and seek to achieve the second objective—are outside the range of the seven scenarios analyzed. In the vast majority of the cases, there is virtually no impact on the range of results and the broad conclusions still apply.

Moreover, the choice of assumptions and scenarios is not intended to predict the future, but rather to provide data users with a portrait of the Canadian population if certain conditions were met. Because it is impossible to know the future, several scenarios were developed to identify a broad range of plausible possibilities in light of the data and past trends, among others. For this reason, users of these projections are encouraged to consider the entire range of results rather than to look for a more likely scenario.

As with any prospective exercise, these projections have certain limitations with regard to, for example, data sources, adjustments to the base population and the methods chosen. These limitations are documented in greater detail in Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a).

Other sources of uncertainty, including those relating to the variance associated with certain projection parameters as well as the albeit low variability associated with the random processes inherent to microsimulation, could affect the projection results. For these reasons, and to avoid giving the impression of too high an accuracy level, the results presented below have been rounded to the nearest thousand.

Lastly, for the purposes of consistency with other Statistics Canada products, the concepts used in this report are based on those used in the 2011 National Household Survey. They therefore reflect the most recent changes in the choice of definitions.

Analysis of results

The analysis in this section is intended to assess the sensitivity of the evolution, up to 2036, of certain ethnocultural diversity indicators (related to immigrant’s birthplace, generation status, languages, visible minority status and religion) in Canada to various aspects of immigration. The analysis is in two parts. First, an overall portrait is proposed. Second, a similar analysis is presented in the form of brief provincial/regional portraits as well as Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver.

International migratory increase would be the main source of increase of Canada’s population over the next 25 years

For most of the 20th century, Canada’s population growth was based primarily on natural increase. However, from the late 1990s (Figure 5), international migratory increase became the main source of the growth of the country’s population, largely owing to a sustained immigration, a progressive increase in the number of deaths and relatively low fertility during this period. This change in the situation highlights the significance of immigration (the main source of migratory increase) in the rise of the Canadian population in the recent period. Between 2000 and 2011, 65% of the total increase came from net international migration.

Description for Figure 5

Data table for figure 5

International migratory increase and natural increase, Canada, 1972 to 2011 (estimated) and 2012 to 2036 (projected according to three scenarios)

Table summary

This table displays the results of International migratory increase and natural increase. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Natural increase, International migratory increase, Estimated, Projected, low-immigration scenario, Reference scenario and High immigration scenario, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers). Year Natural increase International migratory increase Estimated Projected Estimated Projected low-immigration scenario Reference scenario High immigration scenario low-immigration scenario Reference scenario High immigration scenario thousands 1972 185 - - - 99 - - - 1973 179 - - - 151 - - - 1974 184 - - - 174 - - - 1975 192 - - - 162 - - - 1976 193 - - - 118 - - - 1977 194 - - - 84 - - - 1978 191 - - - 52 - - - 1979 198 - - - 96 - - - 1980 199 - - - 141 - - - 1981 200 - - - 134 - - - 1982 199 - - - 87 - - - 1983 199 - - - 62 - - - 1984 201 - - - 59 - - - 1985 194 - - - 68 - - - 1986 189 - - - 116 - - - 1987 185 - - - 164 - - - 1988 187 - - - 246 - - - 1989 202 - - - 232 - - - 1990 214 - - - 180 - - - 1991 207 - - - 135 - - - 1992 202 - - - 174 - - - 1993 183 - - - 143 - - - 1994 178 - - - 152 - - - 1995 167 - - - 162 - - - 1996 153 - - - 167 - - - 1997 133 - - - 154 - - - 1998 124 - - - 117 - - - 1999 118 - - - 158 - - - 2000 110 - - - 199 - - - 2001 114 - - - 242 - - - 2002 105 - - - 213 - - - 2003 109 - - - 195 - - - 2004 110 - - - 198 - - - 2005 112 - - - 216 - - - 2006 127 - - - 220 - - - 2007 133 - - - 235 - - - 2008 139 - - - 273 - - - 2009 142 - - - 272 - - - 2010 137 - - - 255 - - - 2011 136 - - - 250 - - - 2012 - 134 134 134 - 251 252 251 2013 - 136 136 135 - 245 245 245 2014 - 135 135 136 - 201 201 201 2015 - 134 135 135 - 229 229 229 2016 - 136 136 136 - 247 264 272 2017 - 137 137 137 - 206 244 262 2018 - 139 141 141 - 205 255 279 2019 - 139 142 143 - 187 255 288 2020 - 137 142 145 - 168 253 297 2021 - 135 142 146 - 151 253 305 2022 - 131 141 146 - 134 253 317 2023 - 123 136 143 - 128 257 325 2024 - 119 136 144 - 128 258 328 2025 - 111 130 140 - 130 262 332 2026 - 102 124 135 - 131 264 336 2027 - 92 117 130 - 132 268 340 2028 - 85 112 126 - 134 270 344 2029 - 75 105 120 - 135 272 346 2030 - 66 97 115 - 136 275 350 2031 - 57 91 109 - 139 277 355 2032 - 47 84 103 - 139 281 359 2033 - 39 77 98 - 139 281 361 2034 - 31 70 92 - 142 286 367 2035 - 24 65 87 - 143 289 369 2035 - 18 61 85 - 144 291 372

According to the results of the different projection scenarios, international migratory increase would continue to be the main growth component of Canada’s population until 2036, even in the low-immigration scenario. It is projected that on average, between 62% (low-immigration scenario) and 71% (high-immigration scenario) of the total increase between 2012 and 2036 would stem from migratory increase. In 2036, in all the scenarios used, over 80% of the increase in Canada’s population would be due to migratory increase, of which immigration would be the main component. Sustained immigration, an increase in the number of deaths projected and continued low fertility throughout the projection would explain these results.

The proportion of immigrants in Canada’s population would continue to increase up to 2036

In light of the foregoing, it is not surprising that Canada is one of the developed countries with the highest proportions of foreign-born individuals in its population. In 2011, this proportion was over one in five people (20.9%),Note 40 higher than in the United States (13.0%), the United Kingdom (11.7%) and the majority of OECD countries.Note 41

Since Confederation in 1867, Canada’s population has always comprised a large proportion of immigrants (Figure 6) (Box 2) on account of the successive waves of immigrants who played an important role in the country’s history. Data from Canadian censuses since 1871 show that this proportion has never fallen below 13.0% (in 1901) and it even reached 22.3% in 1921. Although the proportion of immigrants remained fairly stable between 1951 and 1991 (between 14.7% and 16.1%), it has risen rapidly since then to reach 20.7% in 2011.

Description for Figure 6

Data table for figure 6

Proportion of immigrants, Canada, 1871 to 2011 (estimated) and 2016 to 2036 (projected in three scenarios)

Table summary

This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected, Reference, low-immigration and High immigration, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers). Year Estimated Projected Reference low-immigration High immigration percent 1871 16.5 - - - 1876 15.2 - - - 1881 13.9 - - - 1886 13.6 - - - 1891 13.3 - - - 1896 13.2 - - - 1901 13.0 - - - 1906 17.5 - - - 1911 22.0 - - - 1916 22.1 - - - 1921 22.3 - - - 1926 22.2 - - - 1931 22.2 - - - 1936 19.9 - - - 1941 17.5 - - - 1946 16.1 - - - 1951 14.7 - - - 1956 15.1 - - - 1961 15.6 - - - 1966 15.4 - - - 1971 15.3 - - - 1976 15.6 - - - 1981 16.0 - - - 1986 16.0 - - - 1991 16.1 - - - 1996 17.4 - - - 2001 18.4 - - - 2006 19.8 - - - 2011 20.6 - - - 2016 - 22.1 22.1 22.1 2021 - 23.7 23.1 24.0 2026 - 25.2 23.5 26.1 2031 - 26.7 24.0 28.1 2036 - 28.2 24.5 30.0

The results of all the projection scenarios show that this proportion would continue to increase over the next 25 years to between 24.5% in the low-immigration scenario and 30.0% in the high-immigration scenario, proportions above the record observed in 1921. In numbers, this would represent between 10.0 million and 13.6 million immigrants (all immigration periods combined) in 2036, a strong increase compared with the number estimated in 2011 (7.1 million).

Start of Text Box Box 2. Definitions: immigrant population and generation status Immigrant population People who hold or once held landed immigrant status in Canada. This population does not include non‑permanent residents and Canadians born abroad (who are considered to be Canadians at birth or non-immigrants). Generation status Refers to the rank of the respondent’s generation since the settlement of his or her family (or direct ascendants) in Canada. In this report, generation status is defined on the basis of immigrant status rather than birthplace, as is usually done at Statistics Canada (for more information, see Statistics Canada 2013b). Immigrants are the first generation—this report will always refer to immigrant population rather than first-generation population. Non-immigrants with at least one parent born abroad are the second generation. In this document, they will be referred to as the second generation. Subsequent generations (third or more) consist of non‑immigrants with both parents born in Canada. They will be referred to as the third generation or higher. According to this definition, non-permanent residents are not included in the first generation since they are not immigrants. A separate category has been created for them. End of Text Box

Immigrants would continue to be concentrated in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver

The immigrant population living in Canada is not distributed evenly among the country’s different regions. One of its characteristics is its strong concentration in census metropolitan areas (CMAs), and in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver in particular. In 2011, 90.9% of the immigrant population was living in a CMA , and close to two in three immigrants (63.2%) resided in either Montréal (12.4%), Toronto (37.4%) or Vancouver (13.4%) (Figure 7). In comparison, 69.1% of Canada’s entire population was living in a CMA in 2011, and just over one in three people (35.0%) were living in one of the country’s three largest metropolitan areas.

Description for Figure 7

Data table for figure 7

Geographic distribution of the immigrant population by region, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)

Table summary

This table displays the results of Geographic distribution of the immigrant population by region. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Estimated Projected - Reference scenario Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario percent St-John's 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Prince Edward Island 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 Halifax 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.1 Rest of Nova Scotia 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Moncton 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Saint John 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Rest of New Brunswick 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 Saguenay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Québec 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 Sherbrooke 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Trois-Rivières 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Montréal 12.4 13.9 0.7 0.0 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 Rest of Quebec 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 3.0 2.8 0.4 0.1 Kingston 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Peterborough 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Oshawa 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 Toronto 37.4 33.9 5.2 0.2 Hamilton 2.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 St. Catharines - Niagara 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 Brantford 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Guelph 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 London 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 Windsor 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 Barrie 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Greater Sudbury 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Thunder Bay 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Rest of Ontario 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.1 Winnipeg 2.2 3.4 0.1 1.2 Rest of Manitoba 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.3 Regina 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.4 Saskatoon 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.5 Rest of Saskatchewan 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.3 Calgary 4.7 7.3 0.1 1.8 Edmonton 3.5 5.2 0.1 1.3 Rest of Alberta 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.6 Kelowna 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 Vancouver 13.4 12.4 0.7 0.1 Victoria 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 Abbotsford - Mission 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 Rest of British Columbia 2.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 Territories 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

In all the projection scenarios, the geographic distribution of immigrants among the various regions in 2036 would be similar to the 2011 estimate. The vast majority (between 91.7% and 93.4%) would continue to live in a CMA , and Montréal (between 13.9% and 14.6%), Toronto (between 33.6% and 39.1%) and Vancouver (between 12.4% and 13.1%) would remain the three major regions of residence of immigrants. In comparison, approximately one in four people in Canada would live outside a metropolitan area in 2036 based on all the scenarios, while roughly 40% of the population would reside in one of the country’s three major CMAs .

At the provincial and territorial level, the immigrant population was overrepresented in 2011 in Ontario (53.3% of all immigrants in Canada were living there, compared with 38.6% of the country’s population) and British Columbia (17.5% compared with 13.1%). In every other province, particularly Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, the immigrant population was underrepresented in relation to the demographic weight of these provinces in Canada as a whole.

At the end of the projection period, the immigrant population would still be overrepresented in Ontario and British Columbia. As in 2011, Ontario would still have the highest proportion of immigrants residing in Canada (between 45.4% and 52.4%), followed by Quebec (between 16.0% and 16.8%) and British Columbia (between 15.3% and 16.2%).

The proportion of immigrants would increase in almost all parts of Canada

In 2011, immigrants’ weight in the population varied somewhat from one region to the next. In general, the proportion of immigrants in the Atlantic regions and Quebec (aside from Montréal) and in non- CMAs across the country was far below the Canadian average (20.7%) (Figure 8). At the other end of the spectrum, the proportion of immigrants in 2011 was highest in Toronto (46.0%), Vancouver (40.0%), Calgary (26.2%), Hamilton (23.6%) and Abbotsford – Mission (23.5%).

Description for Figure 8

Data table for figure 8

Proportion of immigrants by region, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)

Table summary

This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants by region. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region Estimated Projected - Reference scenario Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario percent Canada 20.7 28.2 1.8 3.7 St-John's 3.1 6.6 0.9 1.6 Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 1 1.8 0.3 0.4 Prince Edward Island 5.1 17.3 2.1 9.4 Halifax 8.2 15.2 1.6 3 Rest of Nova Scotia 3.3 4.5 0.4 0.8 Moncton 4.4 9.4 1.2 4 Saint John 4.3 10.8 1.3 3.7 Rest of New Brunswick 3.6 7.8 1 2.6 Saguenay 1.1 2.9 0.4 0.8 Québec 4.4 7.9 0.9 1.6 Sherbrooke 6.2 10.5 1.2 2.1 Trois-Rivières 2.8 5.2 0.7 1.2 Montréal 22.7 32.2 2.1 3.8 Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 10 19 1.6 2.8 Rest of Quebec 1.9 3.2 0.3 0.5 Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 22.7 28.2 2.6 3.8 Kingston 11.8 12 0.9 1.6 Peterborough 8.3 7.4 0.4 0.7 Oshawa 16.1 17.4 1.2 1.5 Toronto 46 50 2.8 4.1 Hamilton 23.6 26.5 2.2 3.1 St. Catharines - Niagara 16.9 17 1.6 2 Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 23.3 29 2.3 3.6 Brantford 11.4 9.8 0.5 0.8 Guelph 19.7 22.3 1.6 2.5 London 18.8 21.1 1.9 2.8 Windsor 22.4 27.7 2.1 3.3 Barrie 12.2 12.9 1.1 1.3 Greater Sudbury 6.3 4.9 0.5 0.7 Thunder Bay 9.3 7.5 0.5 1 Rest of Ontario 8 7 0.5 0.7 Winnipeg 20.7 37.9 2.6 8.7 Rest of Manitoba 8.2 15.8 3 4.7 Regina 10.5 32.6 3 13.6 Saskatoon 10.7 29 2.7 12.3 Rest of Saskatchewan 3.7 11.5 1.8 5.8 Calgary 26.2 38.6 2.2 5.9 Edmonton 20.5 31.7 2.1 5.6 Rest of Alberta 8 13.5 1.3 3.4 Kelowna 13.8 16.8 1 2.1 Vancouver 40 46.5 1.9 4.4 Victoria 17.9 19.9 1.1 2.4 Abbotsford - Mission 23.5 30.1 1.6 3.4 Rest of British Columbia 11.4 11.7 0.8 1.4 Territories 6.8 11.7 1.1 3.3

Between 2011 and 2036, the proportion of immigrants in the population of most regions would increase according to all the projection scenarios. As in 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Atlantic regions, Quebec (outside Montréal) and in non- CMA regions would be lower than the Canadian average in 2036. However, in all these areas, except for the rest of Ontario (in all scenarios) and the rest of British Columbia (in one scenario), the proportion of immigrants would be higher than the estimated proportion in 2011.

At the end of the projection period, the five CMAs with the highest proportions of immigrants in their populations would be Toronto (between 46.0% and 52.8%), Vancouver (between 42.1% and 48.5%), Calgary (between 32.7% and 40.8%), Montréal (between 28.4% and 34.2%) and Winnipeg (between 29.2% and 40.5%). For all these regions, with the exception of Toronto in the low-immigration scenario (in which it would remain stable), the proportion of immigrants in the population would increase in 25 years.

According to the projection results, many areas could see their proportion of immigrants increase or decrease, depending on the scenario considered: Kingston, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines – Niagara, London, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Victoria and the rest of British Colombia.

The proportion of immigrants in the populations of Regina and Saskatoon would especially be influenced by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada. It could either increase very slightly if the geographic distribution of immigrants during the projection were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005, or almost triple if it were similar to the estimate between 2010 and 2015.

According to all the scenarios, the proportion of immigrants in Winnipeg’s population would increase particularly rapidly between 2011 (20.7%) and 2036 (between 29.2% and 40.5%). This proportion would increase more slowly if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival in Canada were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005, and much more quickly if it were similar to the estimate between 2010 and 2015.

In all scenarios, the proportion of immigrants would be lower in Brantford, Peterborough, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and the rest of Ontario by 2036.

Comparisons with the reference scenario reveal that the scenarios with an alternative geographic distribution of immigrants between the provinces and territories—as opposed to scenarios with a different total number of immigrants at the national level—have the greatest effect on the projected proportion of immigrants in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, the Prairie provinces and the territories, although differences may also exist at the regional level.

The immigrant population would continue to grow in absolute number in all provinces and territories according to all scenarios, but the rate of increase would slow down (for the Atlantic provinces, the Prairie provinces and the territories) or accelerate (Ontario) substantially if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada was similar to what was observed in the early 2000s. For British Columbia, the immigration level in Canada would actually be the factor with the greatest impact on how quickly the number of immigrants would increase, rather than where immigrants settle upon arrival. In Quebec, it would be more the share of immigrants that the province would receive out of the Canadian total than the volume of immigrants admitted to Canada that would have the greatest influence on the speed of growth of the number of immigrants.

The evolving composition of the immigrant population by continent of birth

As noted earlier, the portrait of the immigrant population has changed a great deal over the past 25 years, mostly because of differences in the geographic origin of immigrants. In 1986, 62.2% of immigrants living in Canada were born in Europe and only 18.4% were born in Asia. In 2011, the portrait was very different, with people born in Asia (Chinese, Indian and Filipino being the three main groups) accounting for most of the immigrants living in Canada (44.8%), while immigrants born in Europe represented no more than 31.6% of the total (Figure 9). Furthermore, the proportion of immigrants from Africa also rose between 1986 and 2011 (from 2.3% to 7.2%).

Description for Figure 9

Data table for figure 9

Distribution (in percent) of immigrants living in Canada by region of birth, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)

Table summary

This table displays the results of Distribution (in percent) of immigrants living in Canada by region of birth. The information is grouped by Region of birth (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected, Minimum in 2036 and Maximum in 2036, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers). Region of birth Estimated Projected Minimum in 2036 Maximum in 2036 percent North America 3.9 2.9 3.2 Central America 2.2 2.3 2.5 Caribbean and Bermuda 5.2 4.1 4.9 South America 4.3 4.3 4.8 Western Europe 5.9 3.2 3.6 Eastern Europe 7.5 5.2 6.4 Northern Europe 9.0 4.0 4.5 Southern Europe 9.2 3.0 3.7 Western Africa 1.1 2.1 2.5 Eastern Africa 2.3 2.6 3.1 Northern Africa 2.7 4.4 4.6 Central Africa 0.5 1.0 1.1 Southern Africa 0.6 0.6 0.6 West Central Asia and the Middle East 6.7 9.5 11.0 Eastern Asia 14.2 14.0 15.0 Southeast Asia 10.7 13.6 15.2 Southern Asia 13.2 17.5 18.5 Oceania and others 0.8 0.7 0.9

The results of the projections indicate that the transformations in the composition of the immigrant population by region of birth would continue over the next 25 years. In 2036, between 55.7% and 57.9% of immigrants would be born in Asia—mainly in China, India and the Philippines—while between 15.4% and 17.8% would be born in Europe. This would be a reversal of the situation observed in 1986. The proportion of immigrants from Africa would continue to increase to between 11.0% and 11.9% in 2036.

Close to one in five people would be second generation in 2036

The second-generation population, or non-immigrants with at least one parent born abroad (Box 2), also plays a role making the Canadian population a diverse one. This role was extensively analyzed in the Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010). This population was close to 6 million in 2011.

Over the next 25 years, according to all the scenarios used, this population would increase to between 8.1 million (low-immigration scenario) and 8.9 million (high-immigration scenario) by 2036. It would represent nearly one in five people in 2036 in all scenarios, up from 2011 (17.5%). The increase would be strongly tied to higher demographic weight of the immigrant population.

In 2011, 55% of the second-generation population had two parents born abroad (compared with 45% with only one parent born abroad). Based on all scenarios, this proportion would increase in 2036 to between 58.8% and 62.4%. One of the underlying factors of this increase would be the replacement of older cohorts, who are more likely to have only one parent born abroad, by cohorts more likely to have two parents born abroad (Figure 10). This process which was already under way in 2011 and is associated with a likelihood to enter into exogamous unions, would continue until 2036.

Description for Figure 10

Data table for figure 10

Age and sex structure of the second-generation population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to the reference scenario)



Table summary

This table displays the results of Age and sex structure of the second-generation population. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 2011, 2036, Males, Females, Two parents born abroad and One parent born abroad, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers). Age 2011 2036 Males Females Males Females Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad thousands 0 year 40 21 37 21 69 34 66 32 1 year 39 21 37 20 68 33 65 31 2 years 39 21 36 19 67 32 64 31 3 years 37 20 37 19 65 32 63 30 4 years 35 19 34 18 65 31 62 30 5 years 34 20 32 18 64 31 61 29 6 years 33 18 31 18 63 31 60 29 7 years 31 19 29 18 62 30 59 29 8 years 30 18 28 17 61 30 58 28 9 years 31 18 28 17 60 29 57 28 10 years 30 18 28 18 58 29 56 27 11 years 29 18 27 17 57 28 55 27 12 years 28 19 27 17 57 28 53 27 13 years 29 18 27 18 55 27 52 26 14 years 29 20 27 18 54 27 51 26 15 years 31 21 29 19 52 27 50 25 16 years 30 21 30 19 51 26 49 25 17 years 30 21 27 21 50 25 47 24 18 years 28 21 27 21 48 25 46 23 19 years 28 22 27 20 47 24 44 23 20 years 26 21 25 21 45 23 43 22 21 years 24 21 25 21 43 23 41 22 22 years 24 19 23 20 42 23 40 22 23 years 22 19 21 19 41 22 39 21 24 years 21 20 21 18 40 21 38 21 25 years 20 20 20 19 39 20 36 20 26 years 22 19 21 19 38 20 36 19 27 years 21 18 20 18 37 20 35 19 28 years 23 19 22 19 36 19 35 19 29 years 22 19 21 18 34 19 33 18 30 years 24 18 21 18 32 19 31 18 31 years 24 18 21 18 31 18 29 17 32 years 23 16 21 17 30 18 28 17 33 years 23 17 21 17 29 17 27 17 34 years 24 17 22 16 29 17 26 16 35 years 23 17 21 16 28 17 26 16 36 years 23 16 20 16 27 17 26 17 37 years 21 15 20 16 26 17 25 16 38 years 20 15 19 14 27 17 25 16 39 years 21 16 19 15 27 18 26 17 40 years 22 16 21 15 28 19 27 17 41 years 21 14 20 14 28 19 27 18 42 years 21 14 20 14 27 19 26 19 43 years 21 13 19 14 26 19 25 20 44 years 20 13 20 14 25 19 25 19 45 years 21 15 19 14 23 19 23 19 46 years 21 15 20 16 23 19 23 19 47 years 21 16 20 15 21 18 21 18 48 years 22 16 21 16 20 17 19 18 49 years 22 15 20 15 19 18 19 17 50 years 21 15 21 15 19 18 19 17 51 years 21 15 20 16 20 17 19 17 52 years 20 16 19 15 20 17 19 17 53 years 18 15 17 15 20 17 20 17 54 years 16 15 15 15 20 17 19 17 55 years 14 16 14 16 21 17 20 16 56 years 12 16 13 15 21 16 20 17 57 years 12 17 11 17 21 15 19 16 58 years 9 16 9 16 21 15 20 15 59 years 8 16 8 16 21 15 20 15 60 years 7 16 6 16 21 15 20 15 61 years 6 17 6 17 21 14 19 15 62 years 5 18 5 17 19 14 18 14 63 years 5 19 5 20 18 14 17 14 64 years 5 18 5 19 18 14 18 14 65 years 5 13 5 14 19 14 18 14 66 years 5 13 5 14 19 13 18 13 67 years 5 13 5 14 18 13 18 13 68 years 6 13 5 14 18 12 17 12 69 years 5 12 6 13 18 12 17 12 70 years 6 11 6 12 17 12 17 12 71 years 7 11 7 12 18 13 18 13 72 years 7 11 8 12 18 13 17 14 73 years 7 11 8 11 18 13 18 14 74 years 8 10 8 11 18 12 17 13 75 years 8 10 9 11 17 12 18 13 76 years 9 9 10 11 16 12 17 13 77 years 8 8 10 10 15 12 16 13 78 years 9 8 11 11 14 11 14 13 79 years 10 8 12 10 11 11 12 12 80 years 10 7 12 9 10 11 11 12 81 years 9 6 12 8 8 11 10 12 82 years 8 6 11 8 8 10 8 12 83 years 8 5 10 7 6 10 6 12 84 years 7 5 10 6 5 9 6 11 85 years 6 4 9 7 4 8 4 10 86 years 5 3 9 5 3 8 4 10 87 years 5 3 8 5 3 8 3 10 88 years 4 2 7 4 2 7 3 10 89 years 3 2 7 4 2 7 3 10 90 years 3 1 6 3 2 5 2 7 91 years 3 1 5 2 1 3 2 5 92 years 2 1 4 2 1 3 2 5 93 years 1 0 4 1 1 2 2 4 94 years 1 0 3 1 1 2 1 3 95 years 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 3 96 years 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 97 years 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 98 years 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 99 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 100 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 101 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 102 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 103 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 104 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 105 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 