OPEC has been dead for some time now. Bu whether Saudi Arabia has control over where oil will be in the future is very much debatable.



We have seen growing evidence of a move away from oil as a transportation fuel and while the shift has been small it is expected that it will rapidly escalate as the motor vehicle industry moves to release a rapidly growing range of electric vehicles in response to consumer and society demands. This will maintain downward pressure on demand initiated by rapidly increasing fuel efficiency.



US oil shale has refused to die and the last four weeks have shown that any uptick in prices brings more drilling rigs back into action intimating that the shale gas players have been able to reduce their costs to well under $50 per barrel and possible well below $40. While SA has production costs of around $10 per barrel low prices impose a significant cost upon the SA economy impacting upon plans to diversify away from oil. The logistics of such a shift and societal demands may not give SA any other option other than to unload it's massive oil reserves at any price to limit the drain on its reserves and investments.



SA has lost control of the oil market and the rapidly increasing oil reserves reduces its ability to influence. Argentina prospectively with shale oil and gas reserves in excess of US reserves add another prospective source that will introduce further downward pressure on pricing.



If anything the past high oil prices were unsustainable driving efficiency gains and identification of and extraction of new oil sources, coupled with the issue of Climate Change we have seen the halycon days of super profits and capacity to influence the market.