Is it time to worry about Lauri Markkanen?

The short answer is: no, maybe, but mostly no

Every great rookie usually goes through the dreaded “sophomore slump” at some point. It can last for a week or two, a couple months or even an entire season.

But usually, a combination of the eye test, traditional and advanced statistics, and good ‘ol fashion projection can help those of us — present company included — who can’t see the forest for the trees.

Below are Lauri Markkanen’s rookie year stats, which keep in mind, landed him a spot on the 2017–18 NBA All-Rookie First Team:

15.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 12.7 FGA, 43.4% FG, 36.2% 3PT

Below is through 25 games of action in 2018–19:

17.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 0.9 APG, 14.6 FGA, 43.7% FG, 38.7% 3PT

All good so far. Markkanen is scoring more in a bigger role, and all signs point to him being more efficient. But a deeper dive into the advanced numbers says a bit more.

Markkanen’s offensive rating in 2017–18 was 100.6, that figured has dropped to 99.2 points per 100 possessions through 25 games in ‘18–’19. We have to take into account that the team around him is obviously very bad (as currently constructed), but all other members of the 2018 All-Rookie team have taken a step forward in offensive efficiency, besides Markkanen and Donovan Mitchell.

But in Mitchell’s case, his team is a playoff contender in a loaded Western Conference and he has actually taken on an even larger role in year two. So though Lauri obviously was dealt a rough hand to start his career, we hoped to see some clear progress in year two.

But back to that rough hand…..

The use of the term isn’t to suggest that Jim Boylen is hurting Lauri Markkanen’s development. It was used because anytime a player’s first NBA coach is fired, it is a huge adjustment for which they (usually) have little-to-know comparison in terms of the aftermath.

When you look at Markkanen’s offensive numbers — the focus for now since his defense has significantly more work to do than his offensive game — you notice several postives right off the bat:

He is shooting more catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and knocking them down at a higher rate, 39.9% as compared to 36.9% in his rookie year More drives to the rim and an improved field goal percentage on those drives. Up to 48.6% in 2018–19 as opposed to 46.1% in his rookie season

But then, two negatives — one being much more concerning — pop up: