With second-place ties in two newly released New Hampshire polls today, Ohio Gov. John Kasich almost certainly would qualify for the prime-time stage of Thursday's GOP presidential debate – presuming Fox News counts at least one of the surveys. Kasich is tied at 14 percent in the American Research Poll with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio behind Donald Trump's 25 percent.

UPDATE: With second-place ties in two newly released New Hampshire polls today, Ohio Gov. John Kasich almost certainly would qualify for the prime-time stage of Thursday�s GOP presidential debate – presuming Fox News counts at least one of the surveys.



Kasich is tied at 14 percent in the American Research Poll with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio behind Donald Trump�s 25 percent.



Even more important, Kasich is 6 percentage points ahead of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush – his main competitor for the fifth and final qualifying slot from the most recent New Hampshire polls. (Bush likely will still make the main stage because of his standing in national polls.)



In the Monmouth University Poll, Kasich also is at 14 percent but tied with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas behind Trump�s 32 percent. The Ohio governor is 10 points ahead of Bush.



However, about a third of New Hampshire voters told the New Jersey university�s poll that they could still change their mind.



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If Ohio Gov. John Kasich makes the prime-time portion of Thursday�s GOP presidential debate, it will be by the thinnest of margins.

Currently, Kasich appears to qualify because his New Hampshire poll average is 0.2 percentage point higher than Jeb Bush�s, which puts the Ohio governor in fifth place � the final qualifying slot for candidates who aren�t among the leaders nationally or in Iowa.

Whether that scenario holds will be determined by the results of any more polls released by today�s 6 p.m. deadline, and which surveys debate host Fox Business Network chooses to include in its calculations.

>> John Kasich: Complete coverage of his presidential campaign

Fox offers three routes to the prime-time stage:

� Place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most-recent national polls.

� Place in the top five in Iowa, based on the five latest polls of the Hawkeye State.

� Place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on the five latest polls of the Granite State.

But the network isn�t counting any old poll; it must be among those �accepted� by Fox News.

Which ones are accepted? The network doesn�t provide the list but says they must meet this criteria: �Such polling must be conducted by major nationally and state-recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques (i.e., live interviewers, random digit-dial sampling techniques and include both landlines and cellphones).�

The distinction is important because it eliminates two of the four most-recent New Hampshire polls: one that had Kasich tied for third, the other tied for second. Neither of those polls used live interviews; instead, they employed computer-automated �robo-calls,� which are considered less reliable by most public-opinion experts.

A third recent poll � in which Kasich placed fifth � also presumably would be thrown out because it was conducted over the Internet.

That means Fox apparently will have to use polls taken more than a month ago to determine who makes the cut. And the dividing line could well be less than a percentage point, and several of the individual polls had statistical margins of sampling error of about plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Or Fox could choose to do what CNN has done in a pair of debates: include a candidate who falls just outside the official threshold.

Kasich�s people insist that his momentum is building for his all-or-nothing push in New Hampshire, so kicking him to the 6 p.m. undercard debate could damage his campaign in the state that holds America�s first primary, on Feb. 9.

Certain to make the 9 p.m. debate in Charleston, S.C.: Manhattan businessman Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Bush probably will make the big stage as well because of his standing in national polls.

Like Kasich, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is on the bubble, at risk of not qualifying for the main event. The lineup is scheduled to be unveiled on Fox Business starting at 7 tonight.

Neil Cavuto and Maria Bartiromo will moderate the debate.

Ensuing GOP debates are set for Jan. 28 in Iowa and Feb. 6 in New Hampshire.

drowland@dispatch.com

@darreldrowland