According to an intelligence report commissioned by Naveen Patnaik himself (a copy of which is with Firstpost), the BJD is set win just 6 out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha.

Naveen Patnaik is a worried man these days. And it is showing in his body language. In his only public appearance in the last fortnight, on his return from a nine-day long post-election sojourn to New Delhi on 4 May, the Odisha Chief Minister looked like a pale shadow of the man who presented a picture of quiet confidence till the end of the two-phase elections in the state.

So, what exactly has changed in three weeks’ time?

A lot, actually. The man who had hoped to play a major role in the formation of the next government at the Centre with his dozen or more MPs in the Lok Sabha is suddenly staring at the rather unwelcome prospect of having to reconcile himself to dealing with a strength of just half that number. Worse still, his party, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which was bragging about winning ‘at least 110 seats’ in the 147-member Odisha assembly immediately after the election, is faced with a real possibility of being reduced to a wafer-thin majority in the House.

Had the revised estimate come from the Opposition parties or even pollsters, the BJD supremo would have rejected it outright and carried on with his brave talk – at least till 16 May. But these numbers have come from his own intelligence department, making it difficult for him to dismiss it.

According to an intelligence report commissioned by Naveen Patnaik himself (a copy of which is with Firstpost), the BJD is set win just 6 out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha and 77 (+/-3) in the assembly, just marginally above the magic number of 74 - the Congress is projected to win 35 seats and the BJP 23.

More worryingly for the BJD boss, the BJP is projected to be winning as many as 10 Lok Sabha seats and the Congress five, rudely dashing Naveen’s hope of playing kingmaker at the Centre in the post-election scenario.

If the intelligence assessment does turn out to be the actual figure – or even close to it – it is he who will have to woo one of the two national parties (depending on the numbers thrown up on May 16) rather than the other way around.

In such a scenario, Digvijaya Singh’s rather effusive endorsement of his ‘impeccable’ secular credentials in a television interview the other day is unlikely to provide much succour to the beleaguered Odisha chief minister.

The prospect of being reduced to a bit player at the national level, however, is not the only – or even the main – reason for the deepening furrows on Naveen’s forehead. Of far more concern to him is the fate of his party in the assembly elections. If the intelligence projection does turn out to be correct, it would mean that he would have to do some real tight rope walking throughout the duration of the next assembly since all it would need to reduce his government to a minority would be 4/5 MLAs – not exactly a welcome proposition for someone who has got used to lording over the party and the government for far too long. His party leaders though are revelling in their boss’ discomfiture. Long used to being at the receiving end of his indifference – even disdain – many of them are secretly relishing the prospect of Naveen being kept on tight leash by the arithmetic in the assembly.

More ominously for the BJD president, the intelligence report suggests that some of his perennial bugbears in the opposition ranks are set to return to the Assembly to make life even more difficult for him. Among them are senior Congress leader and former minister Narasingha Mishra, BJP leader and former Union minister Dilip Ray, Soumya Ranjan Patnaik of the newly launched Ama Odisha Party (AOP) and – with a bit of luck – Bijay Mohapatra, Naveen’s bête noire, of the BJP.

The report also says that at least two of Naveen’s ministers - Forest and Environment Minister Bijayshree Routray and Food and Supplies minister Pratap Keshari Deb – are set to lose while three others - Finance minister Prasanna Acharya, Maheswar Mohanty and Energy minister Arun Sahu – are on the brink.

No wonder Naveen has plenty to worry about the days ahead.

Body language apart, there have been other tell-tale signs that something is not quite right with Naveen. First, he left for the national capital on April 25 on what was originally supposed to be a five-day visit, but was later extended by another four days. Till late, no one from his party or his office has been able to explain the purpose of the visit, which turned out to be the longest absence from the state capital in his 14 years as chief minister. Then, in a move that appeared even more inexplicable, the chief minister left on another week-long visit to New Delhi on Friday, barely five days after his return from the national capital – in what has been officially described as an ‘unofficial’ visit.

Having scotched speculation about his health on his return from Delhi last Sunday with a cryptic “I am fit and fine” (though he looked anything but that), Naveen has kept everybody guessing about the real purpose of his prolonged stay in the national capital. Even senior BJD leaders are completely in the dark about the reason behind the second visit.

It is not so difficult though to make an intelligent guess about the purpose. As a party leader put it rather evocatively; “It is obvious. He has gone to Delhi to mend fences with those he has burnt bridges in the past – or, alternatively - to further cement the bridges that he has built over the years with others.”