After leading the Sharks in goals for five of the last six seasons, Joe Pavelski finally saw his goal total see a substantial drop. Technically, it was first noticed after the captain failed to post a 30-goal season in 2016-17, but seeing it drop to 22, the lowest of his career since 2011 in an 82-game season, was alarming.

Pavelski got off to the slowest start he’s had in recent memory, scoring only four goals in his first 23 games. Coach Peter DeBoer stated that Pavelski had been playing through injury, which made sense.

And sure enough, as the calendar flipped to December, Pavelski’s game righted itself, just in a different form than usual. Pavelski traded his usual goal total for a higher assist total. His 44 assists last season is his highest since 2011 (46 assists). Still, from December onward, Pavelski was nearly a point-per-game player, scoring 54 points in 59 games. The goal total still lagged behind his usual heights, but he was still a productive player for the Sharks. For as much flak as he got last year for having a “down” year, he was still pretty darn good.

Part of it is that Pavelski was forced into a different role after Joe Thornton suffered a season-ending injury on January 21st, moving from playing on Thornton’s wing to centering the “first” line. The other is that as he gets older, the Sharks are probably better off counting on Pavelski to be more of a playmaker than a scorer.

I was curious if a switch to center indicated a more passive, playmaking Pavelski than in years past. Looking at the numbers, there doesn’t seem to be a significant difference. Granted, I’m not entirely sure how large of a sample size this is since it is only 214 minutes worth of tracking and I don’t know how much of that time was spent with and without Joe Thornton. But here’s the Passing Project data for Joe Pavelski, courtesy of Ryan Stimson, Corey Sznajder, and other volunteers:

There doesn’t appear to be a significant difference between Pavelski’s 2017-18 season and his 2015-16 season as well as the larger 2014-18 sample size. It should also be noted that Pavelski tallied his highest total for even-strength assists in a season in his career with 28. But it does create a few interesting questions, such as where Pavelski plays in the lineup next season, what should the Sharks expect out of him next season, and what role he fills.

Pavelski is still a very good generator of offense at 5v5. All of that Passing Project data is based off 5v5 data, and it paints a picture of a player who a team can depend on to create shots and generate dangerous chances. But at the age of 34, the Sharks cannot depend on Joe Pavelski to post another 30-goal season. Is it outside of the realm of possibilities? Of course not, he’s done it as recently as 2015-16. Is it something the Sharks should bank on? Absolutely not.

2018-19 Outlook

We need to accept that we have most likely seen the best of Joe Pavelski. The last player who was 34 or older to register a 30-goal season was Jarome Iginla in 2013-14. Last season was likely the beginning of Pavelski’s decline, and it will likely only get worse next season.

Patrick Sharp is a decent comparison to Pavelski here. Now, Pavelski has had the better career, but stay with me here. Sharp had multiple 30-goal seasons, with his last one being at the age of 32 in 2013-14. The next season, his goal total plummeted to just 16 and his shooting percentage fell from 10.9% to 7.0% (his career shooting percentage is 10.6%). Sharp would play for three more seasons, but his goal-scoring wouldn’t recover.

Pavelski is the better shooter here, scoring on 11.9% of his shots over his career, but it will likely be a similar story. His shooting percentage fell from 17.0% in 15-16 to a more realistic 12.4% in 16-17, and then all the way down to 9.8% last season. Pavelski is still a talented enough player that he shouldn’t see as precipitous a fall as Sharp’s, but don’t expect it to rise back to 17.0% or a similar figure.

Sharp isn’t the only player to consider here either. Iginla and former teammate Patrick Marleau are decent comparisons as well, and they paint a similar picture. But Pavelski also has better possession stats over his career, and they might help him stave off the effects of aging a bit better than any of those three.

As for where he’ll play next season, it is expected that he’ll return to Thornton’s wing. And given how excited Thornton was to hear that the Sharks acquired Evander Kane last season at the trade deadline, I’m sure that those three will form line 1A/1B/whatever you want to call it. Between Kane’s raw skills and physical play, Thornton’s playmaking skills, and Pavelski’s all-around game, it should make for a fun line. Kane and Pavelski already have some solid chemistry from playing with each other last season, and Thornton should only make things even more interesting.

And with Thornton back, Pavelski’s goal totals will likely receive a small boost from power play production. It might not replace any further drops in goal-scoring from aging effects, but it should still hope. By playing with Thornton, Pavelski will also benefit from easier starts and against lighter competition as DeBoer looks to shelter his aging veterans. A safe projection is probably along the lines of 20/30/60 for Pavelski.

Pavelski is also in a contract year for the first time since 2014, when he finished with 41 goals in the regular season, including three hat-tricks. Now, 41 goals is likely not happening, but his contract situation is an extra source of motivation for the captain.

This season will likely determine his future with the organization after this season. The Sharks have only 12 contracts heading into next off-season and almost $22 million to spend, plus the amount by which the cap increases. And the Sharks have plenty of younger players to re-sign, like Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc, Dylan Gambrell, Barclay Goodrow, and Joakim Ryan. Add in the fact that GM Doug Wilson extended nearly every key piece within the last 18 months except for Pavelski, and you can see why this might be Pavelski’s last season in teal, especially if his offensive production slips even further.

But still, Wilson loves to keep his guys in teal, seeing how the Sharks tried their best to extend an aging Patrick Marleau a summer ago and their fierce loyalty to their veterans. A positive year for Pavelski not only helps his pocketbook, but it keeps the Sharks in a position to contend this upcoming season, and it might keep him in the Bay Area for years to come.

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