The Bookies’ Advantage squad scored 48 points in Gameweek 11, with the point distribution extremely unbalanced amongst the players we picked. Almost half of our total came from just 2 players, Mohamed Salah (15), who scored twice and secured maximum bonus in Liverpool’s 4-1 rout of West Ham, and Jonas Lossl (8), who returned a clean sheet, a save point and a bonus point at home to West Brom. Harry Kane, our captain, once again trolled many a fantasy manager, and the bookies, when he failed to net in an extremely favorable home game against Crystal Palace. With the final international break of the calendar year now behind us, read on as we analyse the clean sheet and anytime goalscorer markets to help you with those all important captaincy, transfer and squad selection decisions for Gameweek 12…

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Man Utd 1.7 59% Chelsea 2.05 49% Liverpool 2.15 47% Burnley 2.25 44% Man City 2.3 43% Bournemouth 2.38 42% Brighton 2.7 37% Crystal Palace 2.8 36% Watford 2.95 34% Everton 3.25 31% Stoke 3.25 31% Swansea 3.6 28% Arsenal 4.15 24% Huddersfield 4.3 23% West Ham 4.3 23% Tottenham 4.7 21% West Brom 5.5 18% Southampton 8.3 12% Newcastle 8.5 12% Leicester 11.5 9%

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As the only team in the top flight yet to concede in front of their own fans, Manchester United top the bookies’ defensive rankings with a 59% of keeping a clean sheet when they host Newcastle on Saturday afternoon. The Red Devils have kept 5 clean sheets at home and, with the Magpies blanking in 3 of their 5 road trips, are odds-on to register another shutout this weekend. David de Gea, the top scoring keeper in the FPL, represents a secure route into Mourinho’s defence and starts for our squad.

Chelsea (49%) rank second for Gameweek 12, with a trip to West Brom the next test for the Londoners. Things are beginning to look up for Antonio Conte’s unit, as N’Golo Kante’s return from injury last time out shored up the Blues’ defence to help them to back to back clean sheets. The Baggies have failed to get on the scoreboard in 4 of their last 7 in the league, so, with another defensively-minded setup likely from Tony Pulis this Saturday, we plump for Cesar Azpilicueta, who leads the FPL defender standings with 67 points, having scored once and assisted 5 times this term.

Liverpool (47%) and Burnley (44%) complete the top 4 defensive prospects for the upcoming round of fixtures. Jurgen Klopp’s men have been surprisingly resilient at Anfield this term, conceding just once in 5 games. The Reds host Southampton on Saturday, with the Saints struggling in front of goal this season, scoring 9 times in 11 outings, with just 3 of those coming away from home. Burnley, meanwhile, are impressing from a defensive perspective, registering 4 shutouts in their last 6, whilst they have also conceded just twice at Turf Moor. The Clarets entertain Swansea this weekend, with Paul Clement’s men the joint-second lowest scorers in the division (7 goals), whilst they have also blanked in 3 of their 5 road trips. Providing value and bonus point potential respectively, Joe Gomez and Ben Mee both get the nod to start for our side this weekend.

On the bench, Julian Speroni (£4.0m – 36%) hosts an underperforming Everton side in a big game near the foot of the Premier League, whilst Lewis Dunk (£4.5m – 37%), who has 2 clean sheets in his last 3 games, welcomes Stoke to The Amex on Monday evening. Our third sub, Adrian Mariappa (£4.0m – 24%), remains the likeliest ultra-budget defender to see game time, having graced the pitch in 7 of the last 8 gameweeks.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Sergio Aguero 1.67 60% Gabriel Jesus 1.67 60% Romelu Lukaku 1.73 58% Harry Kane 2 50% Alvaro Morata 2.04 49% Mohamed Salah 2.2 45% Roberto Firmino 2.3 43% Sadio Mane 2.3 43% Leroy Sane 2.4 42% Alexandre Lacazette 2.4 42% Raheem Sterling 2.43 41% Marcus Rashford 2.43 41% Philippe Coutinho 2.55 39% Jermain Defoe 2.6 38% Chris Wood 2.65 38% Alexis Sanchez 2.7 37% Eden Hazard 2.8 36% Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2.85 35% Andre Gray 2.9 34% Sam Vokes 2.95 34% Richarlison 3.1 32% Chicharito 3.15 32% Dele Alli 3.3 30% Jamie Vardy 3.35 30% Wilfried Zaha 3.45 29% Andy Carroll 3.5 29% Kevin de Bruyne 3.5 29% Wayne Rooney 3.6 28% Pedro 3.6 28% David Silva 3.75 27% Tammy Abraham 3.8 26% Jese 3.85 26% Dominic Calvert-Lewin 3.95 25% Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 4.1 24% Laurent Depoitre 4.1 24% Mame Biram Diouf 4.1 24% Michail Antonio 4.25 24% Andre Ayew 4.25 24% Manolo Gabbiadini 4.3 23% Anthony Knockaert 4.33 23% Salomon Rondon 4.4 23% Alex Iwobi 4.5 22% Christian Eriksen 4.75 21% Ruben Loftus-Cheek 4.75 21% Aaron Ramsey 4.8 21% Jay Rodriguez 5 20% Shinji Okazaki 5 20% Mesut Ozil 5.1 20% Robbie Brady 5.2 19% Joselu 5.25 19% Pascal Gross 5.3 19% Cesc Fabregas 5.5 18% Riyad Mahrez 6 17% Abdoulaye Doucoure 6.1 16% Aaron Mooy 6.25 16% Dusan Tadic 6.5 15% Sofiane Boufal 6.75 15% Matt Ritchie 9 11% Christian Atsu 10 10% Tom Carroll 19 5%

Manchester City pair Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus top the bookies’ attacking ranks for Gameweek 12, with both afforded a 60% chance of scoring away to Leicester on Saturday. However, with neither currently assured of a starting spot, and surely both facing restricted gametime, we opt for Romelu Lukaku (58%) as our captain ahead of his home encounter with Newcastle. Big Rom has returned 31 points, an average of 7.75 per game, at home against lower-half opposition this season, whilst the Magpies have conceded to poorer attacks than United in their last 3 away games (Burnley, Southampton, Brighton). Lukaku was also on target for Belgium over the international break, notching twice against Mexico and once against Japan.

Alvaro Morata (49%) and Roberto Firmino (43%) complete our front line. Morata ended a 3 match barren spell with the winner against Manchester United in Gameweek 11, and followed that up by scoring for Spain against Costa Rica on Saturday. He travels to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom, who, usually so defensively sound, have conceded in 8 of their last 9. Firmino, meanwhile, has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games in all competitions for Liverpool, and will be looking to add to that when he welcomes Southampton to Anfield this weekend, with the Saints having kept a clean sheet just once in their last 6 games.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Harry Kane, along with the aforementioned Manchester City duo, but due to budget constraints and a lack of starting security, we go without the trio for Gameweek 12.

A season-high 15 point haul for Mohamed Salah (45%) against West Ham sees us double up on Liverpool’s attacking assets ahead of their home game against Southampton, with the Egyptian’s brace against the Hammers taking his total to 7 goals in 11 league appearances this season. Rested over the international break with the Pharaohs already qualified for the World Cup, Salah should be fresh to continue his blistering domestic form.

The Manchester City attacking juggernaut travels to Leicester on Saturday, and we select 2 of their potentially explosive stars for our starting XI. Leroy Sane (42%) and Raheem Sterling (41%) have scored 6 and 7 Premier League goals respectively this term, helping them to first and fifth places in the FPL midfield standings, with Sane also currently the top scorer in the entire game. Leicester kept a clean sheet in Claude Puel’s first home match against Everton, but bigger fish have already had success at The King Power this term, with Chelsea notching twice and Liverpool bagging 3. City will be in a confident mood ahead of their trip, given their irresistible form, so a double up on their attacking assets looks potentially lucrative.

Watford’s Richarlison (32%) is fast becoming this season’s go to budget midfielder. With 4 goals and 4 assists in 11 appearances, and fantasy returns in 5 of his last 6, the young Brazilian has the perfect chance to continue to establish himself this weekend at home to a leaky West Ham defence. Ruben Loftus-Cheek (21%), on the back of making his England debut and 2 assists in 3 games in all competitions for Palace, takes the first spot on our substitutes bench ahead of his home game against Everton, although a slight back injury will need to be monitored.

In midfield, the bookies also rate Liverpool pair Sadio Mane and Philippe Coutinho, big ticket stars Alexis Sanchez and Eden Hazard, and the out of form Henrikh Mkhitaryan, but we forgo the services of the quintet due to fitness concerns and/or budget restrictions.

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Good luck with your fantasy weekend!

May the odds be with you🙏

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategizing and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.