In birthplace of Tommy Cooper, some accuse party of tackiness. But opinion on doorsteps and in polls suggest it can strike back from general election failure

Sam Gould was beaming. He and his colleagues had just tried to brightened up a rain-spattered day in south Wales by charging through Caerphilly town centre armed with a cannon blasting out flurries of artificial snow on to shoppers.

Yes, it was a gimmick, a publicity stunt. But Gould, the campaign manager for Ukip in the upcoming Welsh assembly elections, was unapologetic. “For people to believe we’re different to Labour, different to the Conservatives, we have to behave differently,” he said, flecks of faux snow melting in his hair.

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“I want to make sure people can see we’re not the norm. We’re not polished career politicians. This event is fun, it’s a community thing. We want people to enjoy themselves.”

The polls are suggesting that Ukip campaigners might be enjoying themselves quite a lot during this election campaigns.

According to the latest figures, the party could rocket from zero assembly seats to nine in the election in May, three seats behind the second biggest party, the Conservatives, and only one behind the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru. Labour – which currently leads the Welsh government with 30 of the 60 seats – would be down to 27 and having to root around for a coalition partner to hold on to power.



After a disappointing general election showing, Ukip’s Welsh assembly campaign offer a way for it to strike back. Because there is a form of proportional representation in the voting system, the party has a much better chance of winning seats and causing the sort of sea change in politics in Wales it tried, but failed to do in Westminster.

Make no mistake, Ukip – which once called for the abolition of the Welsh assembly – is taking this election seriously. It is planning to fight every seat. It is holding its spring conference in Llandudno, north Wales and its former head of media, Alexandra Phillips, has relocated to Cardiff to mastermind the press side of the campaign.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Mark Reckless, right, with Ukip’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, is expected to stand at the Welsh assembly elections. Photograph: Mark Kerrison/Demotix/Corbis

Mark Reckless, who was briefly a Ukip MP, is expected to stand and the party’s manifesto, which is currently being polished, is likely to be stuffed with populist policies – from abolishing the tolls on the Severn bridges to keeping in check the proliferation of wind turbines on Welsh hillsides and improving the mobile phone signal in remote spots.

And the election is important not just in Wales but for the whole of the UK because a good showing for Ukip could bolster the out campaign before the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union.

Labour is clearly taking the Ukip threat seriously– on Monday evening its leader in Wales, the first minister Carwyn Jones, will debate the EU in Cardiff with Ukip’s leader, Nigel Farage, at an event hosted by the Institute of Welsh Affairs.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Welsh first minister, Carwyn Jones, talks to a voter while campaigning before the general election. Photograph: Dimitris Legakis/Athena Picture Agency

Back in Caerphilly, Gould, who is standing for assembly member of the Labour heartland, did not pause when asked what the big issues were: the NHS, education, the EU.

The former Labour voter said he decided to become a politician after his pregnant wife almost died when she had to wait for more than an hour for an ambulance. Like the many critics of the Welsh government , Gould claims that a service Nye Bevan, who was born down the road in Tredegar, helped create 70 years ago was unsafe in the hands of his Labour successors.

Gould’s personal experience of education also informs his politics. He said there were two applicants for every place at the school he and his wife wanted their daughter to attend. The re-introduction of grammar schools is likely to be a key pledge in Ukip’s manifesto. “I did not want to go into politics,” he said. “I’ve done so because I feel, under the Welsh Labour government, my family’s future is at risk.”

On immigration, Gould said there were concerns in Caerphilly. It was not that the town was a target destination for incomers – the unemployment figures here are not pretty. But Gould argued that the growing population of Cardiff – just eight miles down the road – meant that stresses were being put on places such as Caerphilly.

“The population is spilling into Caerphilly … I have no issue with skilled people coming here. I would encourage that. We want an Australian points-based system to make sure the best people, the most skilled people can come and work here and help us.”

Another of those taking care of the snow cannon was James Peterson, a nurse who will be standing for Ukip in Newport East. The son of a steelworker and union rep, Peterson also used to vote Labour and became disillusioned over the party’s record on the NHS in Wales. “I looked at the Ukip policies and they seemed to make a lot of sense,” he said.

Richard Williams, who worked in the mining and paper industries, spent 20 years in the Labour party but now sits on the town council as a Ukip member. He argued that Labour was letting down the working person. “People are concerned about the lack of jobs, immigration, the EU.”

Being part of the EU had allowed foreign companies and workers into south Wales, he said. “Is it [the EU] good for Wales? Is it good for the working class? No.”

Liz Wilks, who is standing in Cynon Valley, is from a family of Conservatives. Many of the issues she said people were talking about were more suited to a council election – cleanliness, fly-tipping, dog fouling, thieving, parking restrictions. “I want to bring honesty back into politics,” she said. “No back-biting – I’ve pledged to fight a clean campaign.”

Last year’s European elections confirmed that Ukip could do well in Wales. They won 27.55% of the vote to Labour’s 28.15%. They took first places in areas the length of the country, from Conwy in the north to the Vale of Glamorgan in the south.

No wonder the other parties are concerned. The Tories claim that voting Ukip will keep Labour in power, even if it is part of a coalition, while Plaid Cymru depicts Ukip as essentially a second English Tory party.

Leighton Andrews, the Labour assembly member for Rhondda, said the Welsh first minister was prepared to take on Farage in a debate because Europe was so important for Wales’s economic future. Andrews accepted that he was coming across Eurosceptic voters on the doorstep who would once have been solid Labour but might now change. “Ukip could be the fourth [biggest] group at the assembly. They could even be the third group,” he said.

In Caerphilly, the birthplace of Tommy Cooper, not everyone was amused by Ukip’s snow stunt. “I’d never vote for that bunch of muppets,” said shopper Joe Evans, a lifelong Labour voter. “All style – tacky style at that – and no content.”

Student Amy Green, who has never voted before, disagreed. “I’ll look at their policies and decide. But at least they’re having a bit of fun.”