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At the 18th Communist Party congress in October, 2017, Chinese president President Xi Jinping outlined his plan to forge a “new era” for his nation as a global socialist superpower.

Taking back control of Taiwan – by force or otherwise – is a major plank of his strategy, according to Deng Yuwen, a leading political researcher the Charhar Institute think tank.

Taiwan, a small island 180km east of China, has effectively been independent since 1950 – a status Beijing refuses to accept.

Since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, Beijing has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan and vowed to reunify the island with the motherland, by force if necessary.

In Xi’s report at the party congress, the “new era” he refers to is understood to be a period between now and the middle of the century, Yuwen said.

Therefore, Xi has set himself a deadline of taking back control of Taiwan by 2050, according to Yuwen.

Without reuniting Taiwan with the mainland, China cannot complete the “great rejuvenation” and become the global power it seeks to be, Yuwen said.

However, US President Donald Trump’s diplomatic and military strategy in Asia may force China to attempt to seize control of Taiwan as soon as 2020, Yuwen believes.

“Does Beijing have a timetable for seizing control of Taiwan?” Yuwen, a political commentator and international relations scholar, said.

“This has been a hot topic for the media and among experts on cross-strait relations.

“I believe such a timetable exists. If the timeline was rather vague in the past, it has become clearer now.

“And the US security strategy that President Donald Trump recently unveiled will hasten the pace of Beijing’s plan to take back the island, probably in 2020.”

In December Chinese bombers surrounded Taiwan during a series of highly provocative military drills in the Western Pacific.

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Military analysts described the air force exercise as a “reminder to the Taiwanese public” of China’s “military might”.

The drills came after the US Navy mooted the idea of sending warships to Taiwan – sparking a stern warning from Chinese diplomat Li Kexin.

“The day a US Navy vessel arrives in Kaohsiung is the day that our People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force,” Li told Chinese state media.

The US has no formal ties with Taiwan but is bound by law to help it defend itself and is its main source of arms.

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Writing for the South China morning Post, Yuwen concludes that China has a timetable in mind to unify Taiwan with China” by force.

If China were to do so, he said, there will be “formidable changes for East Asia and the world”.

“While it is unlikely the PLA would really start a war over a US Navy visit to Taiwan, the words reflect a consistent belief of Chinese leaders: that Taiwan has to be taken back by force,” he said.

“Since Xi came to power, the party has been open about its wish for the PLA to be battle-ready. No doubt the army’s first target would be Taiwan.

“Also, Xi’s sense of calling would never allow him to tolerate Taiwan’s indefinite separation from the mainland.

“Whatever one may think of Xi, most people would agree that he is driven by a strong sense of national pride.”