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Here’s a conundrum. Justin Trudeau is more or less even in the polls with the Conservatives; he’s still competitive and still apparently likely to form at least a minority government, despite two career-crushing, politically catastrophic, world-rattling scandals.

At least, that’s what they were according to what we might call the hypermedia — the national TV news networks running to social media, plus the hordes of mounted savants on the Ottawa-Toronto pundit trail, and, thanks to Trudeau’s celebrity, the international media as well to a great degree.

So, here’s an explanation for the nonplussed hypermedia: the people don’t believe you. Indeed, some (I know a few) may doggedly vote for Trudeau just to spite you.

The template for this sort of thing is where we usually find it — in the United States. A lot of Americans vacation where I’m at in western Nova Scotia. I have friends on both sides of their political divide. A couple of educated people who voted for Donald Trump told me they did so “because I can’t stand CNN” and its over-the-top ways, as one put it — a theme that also crops up occasionally on American websites. An equally annoyed, anti-Trump friend added this from the other side: “CNN elected him — they puffed him by obsessing over his every nit.”

When the Trudeau blackface pictures emerged, the message of the no-time-to-think “breaking news” was total, immediate and absolute, from the rolling headlines to the talking heads, both non-white and white: not only is this racism, but it proves that everything is racism — our society drips with it, it gets worse all the time, and nothing can be done except to freak out.

The first crack in this narrative came from the networks themselves, as they sought reaction from any non-whites they could find on the street. Few seemed unduly perturbed, most seeming to accept that this was done in a theatrical context without racial intent. One man in St. John’s said, wisely I thought, that this presented a good opportunity to talk about the issue of racism in Canada.

In Trudeau’s Papineau riding, one woman (from her accent, probably from North Africa) shrugged and protested: “He was dressing up. It’s like Hallowe’en. C’est quoi votre problème?”

Blackface, in the context of American post-slavery, is indeed an evil, racist thing — and the minstrel shows that carried this around, mocking blacks, circulated in Canada, too. However, the question as to whether blackface is racist outside this context (as with white actors playing Othello in Shakespeare’s play) took an interesting local turn the morning after the breaking news when I showed up for my coffee at the gas station.

The talk was about the local church which, as perhaps other Christian churches, celebrates the visit of the Magi to the Christ Child on the Epiphany, the sixth of January, with a little ceremony involving three men dressed up as the three kings. Until a few years ago, one would be in blackface to make the point that Christianity is not just a white thing. There were no black parishioners except, for many of those years, the actual priest, who was black and from Africa, and under whose direction this occurred.

It was pointed out to me that a couple of politicians had played that role. “So what do we do now — go looking for pictures?” asked one of my buddies with deep sarcasm, before the conversation turned to the general hysterics of “the media” — which I’ve found over the years is where the discussion usually ends up with “ordinary” Canadians when such an eruption occurs.

As for the SNC-Lavalin affair, the gist of it is that the government caved to the pressures of big business. They caved too much, but since every government since Confederation, and most provincial governments now, have played that game, the public seems to have failed to see the point — especially since the whole thing has actually turned out right. Lavalin is going to trial for bribery after all (the scheme was to have it avoid trial for a plea deal), and no public money was involved. The resignations of two politicians to bring this about were principled on their part, but have disappeared in the rolling waves.

A final note on media. CNN took to the air in 1980, inventing the 24-hour news cycle that everyone else, including the Canadian networks, now imitate. “News” would not just be reported, but promoted like movies. The high (low) point of this came with the O.J. Simpson trial in 1995 — billed as the “trial of the century.” The Nuremberg trials of Nazis, the Stalinist show trials, the Dreyfus anti-Semitism trials in France, etc. — all the pivotal 20th century trials couldn’t hold a candle to a washed-up sports star in a tawdry murder case, properly promoted.

Then CNN invented the now ubiquitous “breaking news” shtick that everyone imitates. After a big drumroll recently, CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer came on saying, “Er, nothing’s happened yet. The hearing hasn’t actually started.” No wonder people have trouble telling the real from showbiz, and Donald Trump can holler “fake news” and still get 45 per cent support when he’s obviously lying.

And, of course, within 24 hours of an eruption, it goes “poof” and makes way for new sensations.

Good luck voting.