Having laid out what we know about the new collective bargaining agreement, now let’s have some fun and put the new rule set into practice and see what options we can map out for the Celtics. Without complete information on the CBA it’s impossible to do all the math exactly, but take the numbers I use here as fair estimates and realize that these things appear possible, though maybe when all the details are known there would have to be some minor adjustments.

If we’re going to play Fantasy GM, we might as well start with the fantasy build…

Dreams Do Come True

Danny Ainge and Mike Zarren have closely protected their potential cap space since the 2016 draft, going so far as to select a player willing to do a multi-year stash at 16. With the team muddling around in the middle of the playoff picture they’re tempted to forgoe some of that flexibility for immediate gains, but instead decide to stay patient a while longer. Finding no available superstar trade, they swap Tyler Zeller and Minnesota’s 2017 2nd Round pick for Andrew Bogut.

Bogut fits in immediately, helping the Celtics secure the 3-seed and a comfortable advancement through the first round. Boston upsets Toronto in Game 7 before losing to the Cavaliers in five hard fought games.

Meanwhile, out west the Clippers finish as the two seed by fail to live up to playoff aspirations again, bowing out to San Antonio in the second round. The Indiana Pacers complete a forgettable season with a first round loss. The All NBA forwards are LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Draymond Green.

The lottery awards the Celtics the third pick in the draft for the second straight year. With that pick, Danny Ainge takes Jayson Tatum out of Duke. Boston extend Kelly Olynyk a qualifying offer making him a restricted free agent, but also let him know that they’re in something of a holding pattern pending other conversations.

Griffin, having suffered another leg injury and playoff disappointment, gets a bug in his ear that Chris Paul, in his capacity as NBPA President, made sure to take care of he and the Banana Boat Crew with the change to the “Age 36” rule but left Blake in a tough spot to qualify for Designated Veteran status. It seems like a good time to listen to other offers, even if he still does love LA and is tempted to come back on a 1+1 deal to chase the 35% max.

The Celtics, having advanced further than the Clippers and holding much better ways to improve, offer Blake the full 30% maximum contract and accede to his desire to sign a 2+1 deal, knowing that Early Bird Rights will be more than enough to give him the 35% max in two years when he qualifies. The big selling point for Griffin is that Boston promises a “Phase 2” of their offseason if he joins, which he does. Boston hires the best knee specialist money can buy.

Kelly Olynyk’s qualifying offer is rescinded on July 13, but even if things had dragged on past that the team knew someone would sign him for more than his qualifying offer. The Celtics renounce all their remaining holds, Guerschon Yabusele signs a letter to the league promising to stay out of the NBA for another year (knowing he’ll join the NBA in 2018). If Yabusele had decided it was time to dance on over to America, the team was prepared to release Jordan Mickey and Demetrius Jackson but they’re happy to keep them (for now). Having taken care of all that business, Blake Griffin, Jayson Tatum, and Ante Zizic all sign.

One month later, when Tatum becomes available for trade, Ainge and Larry Bird strike the big deal with Boston sending Jae Crowder, Terry Rozier, Jordan Mickey, Jayson Tatum, and a future pick owed by Memphis to Indiana for Paul George. The Pacers secure high-upside, cost-controlled options at 2-5 with Rozier, Crowder, Tatum, and Myles Turner. They re-sign Jeff Teague and move forward with Turner and Tatum as the new faces of their franchise.

The Celtics now have a contending group of starters but a very shallow bench. Zaza Pachulia, who the Warriors cannot retin in order to max out Kevin Durant again, spends another year trailing Andrew Bogut and signs for the RME. With no remaining tools, the Celtics sign Randy Foye and Brandon Bass to the new higher minimum salaries, as well as Gerald Green who has proven himself a good end-of-the-bench presence, and Abdel Nader. The new “two-way” D-League contracts go to the players they chose with the Cavaliers and Clippers 2nd Round picks.

Role Point Guard Shooting Guard Small Forward Power Forward Center Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Paul George Blake Griffin Al Horford Rotation Marcus Smart Randy Foye Jaylen Brown Brandon Bass Zaza Pachulia Bench Demetrius Jackson Gerald Green Abdel Nader Ante Zizic

Stuck In the Middle With You

Patience is wearing thin in Boston. The All Star break is looming, the team has been healthy for a while, but they look no closer to the Raptors, let along the Cavaliers, than they were last season. The pursuit of Kevin Durant so nearly came to fruition but that’s in the rearview mirror now and cap space is looking less and less valuable as the league pushes the best players to stay with their current teams.

The day after falling to Utah, who battered Boston on the boards, Milwaukee calls asking if the Celtics would swap Greg Monroe for Amir Johnson, Demetrius Jackson, and a 2nd round pick. Ainge finally gives in and makes the deal.

Things don’t quite work out. Al Horford can play with Monroe but the defensive matchups are hard to work out and they either get in each other’s way or Horford spends all his time on the perimeter. A few weeks before the playoffs Stevens gives in and moves Monroe to the bench. The Celtics find their way through the first round but, having ended up in the 4-5 series, run into Cleveland in round two and make a quiet exit.

Having been benched by three straight franchises, and seeing the writing on the wall for both centers and upper middle-class veterans, Monroe decides to invoke his player option and take the nearly $18M he’s owed in 2017-18. The Celtics are surprised by this decision, but knew it was possible.

The Clippers advance to the Western Finals but Blake Griffin doesn’t make All NBA having suffered a mid-season knee injury. Blake thinks he has a decent chance to make All NBA the next season and get to that 35% max a year earlier, and so signs a 1+1 to return to LA. Paul George has a better second half than first for the Pacers, but they still bow out in the first round and George also misses out on All NBA honors. Utah can’t stay healthy and lose in the first round to the Rockets, having been stuck in their own 4-5 series.

The Nets pick ends up being fourth after the lottery. The Celtics select Josh Jackson, a pick that seems to overlap with Jae Crowder and Jaylen Brown. An hour later, C’s fans find via a Woj Bomb that Isaiah Thomas and Jackson have been traded for John Wall, with Tyler Zeller’s non-guaranteed deal making up the numbers.

With their cap space accounted for, Kelly Olynyk comes back on a deal starting at $14M/year. The Mid-level exception is used to lock up Abdel Nader to a deal long enough to reach Bird Rights after the majority of it is spent on Anthony Morrow, coming from OKC to provide more shooting from the guard spots. Looking capped out for the next few years, the team enters extension negotiations with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart. Ainge starts gauging trade interest for the 2018 Brooklyn pick.

Role Point Guard Shooting Guard Small Forward Power Forward Center Starter John Wall Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Kelly Olynyk Al Horford Rotation Marcus Smart Terry Rozier Jaylen Brown Guerschon Yabusele Greg Monroe Bench Demetrius Jackson Anthony Morrow Abdel Nader Jordan Mickey Ante Zizic

Same Old, Same Old

Having settled on a solid nine man rotation, and having an extended period of health, the Celtics take off in the second half of the season. The separate from the Eastern Conference pack, but unfortunately Cleveland and Toronto stay separated from them. Viewing the Raptors units with Patrick Patterson as the biggest Round 2 threat, and not wanting to expose Jaylen Brown to LeBron in a hopeful playoff match-up, Ainge swaps Jonas Jerebko and Minnesota’s 2nd round pick for PJ Tucker. James Young eventually gets waived and claimed by a team under the salary floor, clearing the way for Boston to acquire Jeff Withey for rebounding and interior defense depth. The Celtics cruise past Chicago in Round 1 but lose in an epic seven game series to Toronto.

The Warriors and Cavs finish their three year series after taking down the Clippers and Raptors in the Conference Finals. Paul George’s Pacers advance to the second round before being swept aside by Cleveland, but PG-13 is shut out of the All NBA spots. Blake Griffin doesn’t even finish in the running for All NBA forwards after his knee surgery takes longer than expected to heal and has lingering effects the rest of the way. Utah stave off Houston in the first round and surprisingly push Golden State to six games before bowing out.

The Celtics draw the third pick in the lottery and take Harry Giles, despite medical red flags. Kevin Pelton’s statistical projections say that Ante Zizic would be the 12th best player in this draft; Guerschon Yabusele has finished the season in Maine after the Chinese League wrapped up.

Having suffered through yet another lower body injury, Griffin thinks it prudent to take what he can get and signs for five more years with the Clippers, accepting the 30% max and not pushing for a future 35% deal. Larry Bird publicly states that Paul George is not available for trade, and that he expects him to spend his entire career in Indiana. The Legend blocks Danny Ainge’s cell number.

Boston extends a qualifying offer to Kelly Olynyk but see him sign an offer sheet on July 1. The Celtics have until July 8 to match, but Gordon Hayward isn’t planning on meeting with the team until July 5. He has told them that he’s definitely interested in reuniting with Brad Stevens but plans on taking his time in making a decision. The first meeting goes well enough that Hayward asks for a follow-up on the 8th; Ainge and Mike Zarren confer and decide that, with three young big men coming on board, they can let Olynyk walk and hold out for Hayward.

On July 10 Gordon Hayward announces that he’ll be returning to the Utah Jazz on a five year max contract. Boston surveys the remaining free agents, makes a late play for Paul Millsap to no avail, and are left seeing nothing of particular interest. Russell Westbrook and James Harden take advantage of the rule set up specifically for them, ripping up their option years and signing five year DVE extensions for well over $200M each. DeMarcus Cousins does the same in Sacramento, but somehow looks unhappy doing it. All three become untradable for a year; the 2018 class is drying up before it even can get started. The only real prize out there for 2018 appears to be Paul George.

Looking for some veteran cover, Ainge offers $10M to Jonas Jerebko, who happily returns. Abdel Nader gets his chance, signing a four year deal from cap space with the first two partially guaranteed. Yabusele and Zizic take the podium alongside Giles after they all sign. Isaiah Thomas says he’s not interested in a renegotiate-and-extend, preferring to play it out to free agency. Avery Bradley is interested and the team commits most of the rest of their cap space to giving him a raise this year in exchange for an additional season at a price close to his pending cap hold.

The Celtics enter 2018 a lot like they did 2017 and ended 2016. Danny Ainge continues to work the phones, but the new CBA makes acquiring an All Star harder than ever. Denver call to see if the Celtics have any interest in Kenneth Faried. Again.

Role Point Guard Shooting Guard Small Forward Power Forward Center Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Jonas Jerebko Al Horford Rotation Marcus Smart Terry Rozier Jaylen Brown Harry Giles Ante Zizic Bench Demetrius Jackson Abdel Nader Guerschon Yabusele Tyler Zeller Depth Jordan Mickey

The End of a Brief Era

After a stop-start first third of the season, the Celtics finally get healthy and run off a few wins. Months of negotiations with Sacramento over DeMarcus Cousins come to an abrupt halt when he tells Vlade Divac that he’ll sign the Designated Veteran extension if they offer it. With Jaylen Brown proving himself a reliable understudy to Jae Crowder, mitigating the need for a SF, the team swaps Amir Johnson for Andrew Bogut and progresses on to a 50-win season and the third seed. The team advances beyond the first round for the first time under Brad Stevens but fall to Toronto in six, losing the finale at home.

The NBA’s final four are the Warriors, Cavs, Clippers, and Raptors. The All NBA voters decide that Anthony Davis can be a center but Blake Griffin still misses out due to his mid-season surgery. The Pacers and Paul George have a forgettable season. Utah finally gets healthy and advance as far as the Celtics after coming to terms on a renegotiate-and-extend deal with George Hill mid-season.

Danny Ainge comes to the conclusion that there just aren’t any stars available. Griffin will be going back to LA for a 1+1 contract, hoping to qualify as a designated veteran free agent in 2018. Paul George might be available, but Larry Bird isn’t ready to pull the trigger; plus both he and PG-13 are hoping he’ll return to All NBA form in 2017-18 setting up his own DVE contract. Utah may not be able to hold onto Gordon Hayward, and if they do they’ll probably trade Derrick Favors, but do either of them really move Boston forward? Danny isn’t so sure.

Dallas wins the lottery ahead of the Sixers and Celtics. The Lakers draw the 7th pick and send it to Philly. Brian Colangelo, realizing that they have enough kids and feeling burned by the Nerlens Noel situation, looks to trade the Lakers pick for some veteran help. Ainge, seeing the writing on the wall, offers Avery Bradley and the Clipper’s future pick for the 7th pick in 2017. The Sixers see Bradley as the ideal player to slot next to Ben Simmons, and a great veteran presence, so make the trade and then pick Jayson Tatum with their own selection. Boston takes Malik Monk at three, seeing him as a replacement for Bradley, and then swing for the fences at seven with Jonathan Isaac.

Meanwhile Orlando, desperate and dumb, sees the signals Boston is sending out and call about Isaiah Thomas. The Celtics offer him up for Aaron Gordon and the Magic start talking. One week later, a trade built around those two is finalized.

Ainge has some tough phone calls to make now. Al Horford is not happy to find that the team he joined is actually rebuilding. Jae Crowder isn’t happy either, and if the team isn’t contending he isn’t quite as ok to be playing for a huge discount. Danny can only promise to keep both players informed on how things are going and to try to do what’s best by them.

On the first day of free agency, the Celtics come to an agreement with Kelly Olynyk starting at $14M/year but wait to sign it. With more money going to players at the top and bottom of the league, Nerlens Noel finds his market cooler than he may have thought. The Celtics waive Jordan Mickey and offer Noel a 3+1 deal starting at $18M and, having just come off a nightmare season in Philly, he signs it. After two nerve-wracking days, Philly don’t match, knowing they don’t want the drama, and he’s officially a member of his hometown Celtics.

Mike Zarren takes care of the rest of the summer’s business, bringing Yabusele and Zizic to the NBA and signing deals with the 2nd Round picks.

With a mix of youngsters and veterans making up a positionally imbalanced group, Boston starts the season without a real identity. The Smart-Rozier-Crowder-Gordon-Horford group is enough to make the playoffs in the East, but the very young bench makes it doubtful they do any more than that. At the trade deadline calls start to come in from Phoenix, New Orleans, Milwaukee, and Minnesota asking if Horford is available. Half the league calls about Crowder. Danny or Austin Ainge are spotted at every major college game as the Nets sink back down to the bottom of the standings. Malik Monk scores 35 against the Knicks in mid-December.

Role Point Guard Shooting Guard Small Forward Power Forward Center Starter Marcus Smart Terry Rozier Jae Crowder Aaron Gordon Al Horford Rotation Demetrius Jackson Malik Monk Jaylen Brown Kelly Olynyk Nerlens Noel Bench Abdel Nader Jonathan Isaac Guerschon Yabusele Ante Zizic Depth Tyler Zeller

What Does It All MEAN?!

As usual, the Celtics have options. The best ones may have long odds of coming off, or be painful to execute, but they’re there. The easier paths to see may not end in hardware, but they aren’t necessarily bad. If watching Danny Ainge for the past decade has taught me anything it’s that he’d rather swing for the fences than take a single against the shift. I’ve been wrong before, though.

You can follow me @dangercart on twitter but don’t @Me about how you think these trades are terrible and will never happen. They’re examples.