As we near the end of the season with rankings and conference championship matches taking shape, each game becomes more important. While the slate of games this week may not be considered top quality, that is usually when upses happen.

Week 11 Preview

Fresno State at Boise State

Analysis:

The strong play of Fresno State has been a key storyline among G5 teams this season. Fresno State’s lone loss on the season was to Minnesota in non-conference play. The Bulldogs have won four games this season by at least 30 points. Fresno State allows just 12.3 points per game, good enough for second in the country. Their defense is led by defensive back Juju Hughes, defensive end Mykal Walker, and linebacker Jeffrey Allison. Their offense is led by quarterback Marcus McMaryion, running back Ronnie Rivers, and receiver KeeSean Johnson. For this game, the Bulldogs need to be able to rattle this experienced Boise State offense. The best way to do that will likely be to disrupt the passing game with a good pass rush and coverage.

Boise State just played a rare low scoring game in their win over BYU last week. The Broncos are 7-2 on the season with losses at Oklahoma State and against San Diego State on their record. While their last win was because of sound defense, most of their wins are because of their high powered offense. Quarterback Brett Rypien may not make the flashiest plays, but he can get the job done and rarely makes bad throws. Running back Alexander Mattison leads the rushing attack with 726 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Boise State’s defense has been spotty, but has experience. The key to the game for Boise State is to find some cracks in Fresno State’s defense.

This game is basically a must win for Boise State if they want to win their division. Fresno State is currently ranked in the top 25, and will look to stay ranked.

Prediction:

Boise State gets a close win 28-27.

Ohio State at Michigan State

Analysis:

In their last three games, Ohio State has not looked too solid. They have lost to Purdue, then struggled against Minnesota and Nebraska but got by with close wins. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins has slowed down from his hot start on the season, and has left a bit to be desired in the last couple of games. In their last game against Nebraska, JK Dobbins was their main source of offense with 163 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Dobbins and Mike Weber make up one of the best backfields in the country. The main concern for Ohio State has been their defense after Nick Bosa was injured. This game for Ohio State will come down to getting their backfield going against a very good run defense. Michigan State has quite a few deficiencies on offense, so if Ohio State can just put up around 20-24 points, this win should come easy.

Michigan State is coming off of two straight ugly wins over Purdue and Maryland. One good sign from their win against Maryland last week was 157 rushing yards from Connor Heyward. Michigan State has had a hard time finding a reliable offensive threat, and if Heyward can be that, it will be very good for the Spartans. Where the Spartans really shine is on defense. On average, they give up just 19 points per game and have the best run defense in the country. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is also returning to action for this game after being out the last two weeks. What Michigan State needs to do in this game is to make sure their offense takes advantage of every good spot their defense puts them in. If their offense can at least somewhat hold up their end of the bargain, Michigan State can squeak out a win.

Prediction:

Ohio State wins it ugly 28-23.

Wisconsin at Penn State

Penn State is looking to rebound from an embarrassing loss at Michigan last week. Penn State was obliterated by Michigan, as they could not get anywhere on offense, and struggled to stop Michigan’s run game. The bad news for Penn State in this game is that Trace McSorley is listed as questionable for this game. Tommy Stevens went in at quarterback for McSorley during the Michigan game after McSorley was playing poorly and did well for a backup. Stevens is also in his fourth year at the program, so he has experience. It will just be hard to be as effective through the air and on the ground as McSorley is when he is healthy. Running back Miles Sanders will also want to bounce back from a game where he put up just 14 rushing yards. The key to the game for Penn State will be to slow down Wisconsin’s star running back Jonathan Taylor. I have faith in Tommy Stevens being able to run the offense if McSorley is out, but he will need help from Sanders and receivers KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson.

Wisconsin, like Penn State has some uncertainty at quarterback. Alex Hornibrook is listed as questionable for this game after a suffering a concussion against Rutgers. Backup Jack Coan went in for Hornibrook during the game and went 5/7 passing for 64 yards and a touchdown. While it is not preferable to resort to a backup, Coan will have the country’s best running back (yes I am willing to argue this), and one of the best offensive line units in the country. Receivers Danny Davis and AJ Taylor will have to step up as well if Hornibrook is out. Running back Jonathan Taylor had a monster game against Rutgers with 208 rushing yards, and will be used quite a bit in this game. What Wisconsin needs to be sure to do is get some stops on defense against Penn State’s talented offense. While I doubt Penn State will be able to stop Taylor and Wisconsin’s offense, I worry Wisconsin will not be able to stop Penn State’s.

Both of these teams are having down years, and a win here will be big for either team. It will also be very cold at kickoff, so the running game will be important to establish.

Prediction:

Wisconsin gets the win on the road in a surprisingly high scoring game 35-31.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

Analysis:

In their last game, Oklahoma State blew a lead, and fell to Baylor in a tight game. It was a solid game from Oklahoma State defensively, until the fourth quarter where the wheels just fell off. Taylor Cornelius did not have his most efficient day at quarterback, just completing 58% of his passes. While their loss to Baylor should not be taken lightly, I think it can be largely attributed to being a let down week after their win over Texas (mentioning this game just gave me horrific flashbacks of Texas struggling to tackle Taylor Cornelius). Winning this game will be a tough ask for Oklahoma State, but there is a roadmap to winning. If their offense hits the ground running, and their defense can force a turnover or two, victory can be attainable.

Oklahoma was given all they could handle last week against Texas Tech, as they had to overcome a 14-0 deficit to win 51-46. Kyler Murray threw two interceptions early, but bounced back to throw for 360 yards and run for 100. Trey Sermon had 206 rushing yards of his own on the day. Oklahoma’s offense simply could not be stopped, unless the made dumb errors. What concerns me is the fact that they probably lose this game if Texas Tech does not have to use a backup quarterback in the second half. I was starting to believe Oklahoma’s defense had improved and made big strides, but they had a very hard time stopping Texas Tech in the first half when they had Alan Bowman at quarterback. Oklahoma should easily win this game against Oklahoma State, but they need to get some stops on defense, and minimize dumb plays on offense to assure victory.

Oklahoma is making a push for the playoffs, so they may also try to rack up points in a blowout to improve their ranking. This game is also a rivalry game, so records and rankings should be held in less regard.

Prediction:

Oklahoma’s offense has an amazing day as they win 52-28.

Mississippi State at Alabama

Analysis:

In their last game, Alabama erased any doubt that they are the best team in the country as they beat LSU 29-0 at Death Valley. Alabama held LSU to 12 rushing yards, and absolutely dominated LSU’s offense. Defensive lineman Quinnen Williams had a dominant performance with 10 tackles and 2.5 sacks. On offense, Damien Harris had 107 rushing yards and Jerry Jeudy had 103 receiving yards. Tua Tagovailoa three his first interception of the season, but threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns in addition to having a 44 yard touchdown on the ground. Tua also did all of this while recovering from a knee injury. This game should not be as much of a challenge as the LSU game, but there are still are things Alabama needs to prepare for. Mississippi State has a very good defensive line, so Jonah Williams, Ross Pierschbacher, and Alabama’s offensive line need to play well. Mississippi State also has a very good rushing attack, so Alabama’s defensive line will need to key in on that.

Mississippi State won their last game 45-3 against G5 opponent Louisiana Tech. While it was not a game against SEC level competition, there were still positives to look at for the Bulldogs. Nick Fitzgerald improved his passing in the last two games. Against Texas A&M and Mississippi State, Fitzgerald has thrown for 484 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. If Fitzgerald can keep this up, it will be a huge benefit for Mississippi State’s offense. Against Louisiana Tech, Fitzgerald also put up 107 yards on the ground. It is pretty clear that Mississippi State will have a very hard time winning, or really playing a tight game with Alabama. Mississippi State can keep it close by keeping their offense as close to balanced as possible. Alabama’s defense is too good to know what play is about to be run. They also need their defensive line to wreak havoc against Alabama, and give Tua little time to throw.

While this may seem lie a blowout win for Alabama, they surely are fatigued from their game last week against LSU. Also, Mississippi State nearly beat Alabama (they blew it) in Starkville last season.

Prediction:

Alabama wins 38-16 in what would be their closest game all season (have I mentioned Alabama is very good).

Washington State at Colorado

Analysis:

Colorado is in the middle of a tailspin. Since starting 5-0, they have lost four straight games. The biggest reason for this is definitely the injury of receiver Laviska Shenault. Shenault is an outstanding receiver and also would get carries out of the wildcat formation. Before his injury, I was ready for him to be discussed as a possible Heisman finalist. Head coach Mike MacIntyre said Shenault would be a game time decision, and this decision will be huge. Receivers Jay MacIntyre and KD Nixon are also considered game time decisions. This depletion at receiver means that quarterback Steven Montez and starting running back Travon McMillan will have a lot to be asked of them. Colorado will need to find a way to disrupt Gardner Minshew and Washington State’s passing game.

Washington State is 8-1, and survived against California in a very ugly game. They had a very rough game offensively, but thanks to five sacks and two interceptions by their defense, they were able to win the game. In their last two games against California and Stanford, Washington State has been able to make clutch plays on both sides of the ball, which is a good sign for the team being able to handle adverse situations. What makes Washington State hard to prepare for is the vast amount of receivers they can throw out. Against California, they had 11 different players with a catch. What Washington State will need to do this game is find a way to slow down Laviska Shenault (if he plays). Cornerback Darrien Molton will likely be tasked with covering Shenault, and will need to do well, or else this game could turn into a shootout real quick.

Washington State is on the outside of the playoff looking in even though they have just one loss. Each game is not just a must win, but a must win convincingly game for the Cougars if they want to make the playoff. Colorado is also looking to make a bowl, and their chances get much smaller with each loss, and it appears as though head coach Mike MacIntyre might be coaching for his job. The result of this game will have ramifications either way.

Prediction:

With the uncertainty of the status for a few players on Colorado, this game is a bit tough to call. I will go with Washington State sinning 38-28 in a game where Colorado hangs around until they fall apart late.

Oregon at Utah

Analysis:

Oregon ended a streak of poor play last week when they took down UCLA 42-21. Despite scoring 42 points, Oregon really did not do too well offensively. Oregon was aided by a punt return touchdown, a fake field goal setting them up at the one yard line, and UCLA muffing a punt in the red zone. Justin Herbert completed just 56% of his passes. One upside for Oregon’s offense was Dillon Mitchell having 156 receiving yards. On defense, Oregon held UCLA’s quarterbacks to just a 45.8% completion percentage. What concerns me about this game for Oregon is that UCLA running back Josh Kelley ran for 161 yards. Utah’s offense is based on running the ball. Oregon needs hold the run game in check if they want to win this game, and force Utah to rely on their backup quarterback.

Not only did Utah lose last week to Arizona State, but they lost quarterback Tyler Huntley for the season. Utah also just recently announced running back Zack Moss is out for this game and likely the season. At quarterback, Utah now will have to rely on redshirt freshman Jason Shelley. In his time at quarterback against Arizona State, Shelley completed just 4/11 passes for 59 yards. Utah also allowed two Arizona State receivers to gain over 100 yards receiving. This is concerning since they are about to play against the best quarterback in their conference. Utah’s defense must find a way to slow down Justin Herbert. While Oregon does rely on the run game, Herbert is clearly their best offensive player, and if he can be shut down, will have the biggest effect on the game. On offense, Utah will need to find a running back that can at produce in the absence of Moss.

Utah is in the mix for the Pac 12 South Title, so winning this game will be a big step in that direction.

Prediction:

Utah’s injuries are too much for them as Oregon wins 27-23.

Auburn at Georgia

Analysis:

Auburn is coming into this game off of a late win over Texas A&M last week. Auburn also won this game with just 19 rushing yards. On offense, Jarrett Stidham led the way, throwing for two touchdowns. Ryan Davis made multiple clutch plays at the end of the game. Davis had a long punt return, and a catch that kept a drive alive, on Auburn’s last scoring drive. Running back JaTarvious Whitlow can be a threat in the running game, and is coming off of an injury. Auburn needs their defensive line to continue and improve upon their good play in this game, as they play against a very good offensive line and rushing attack. Auburn also needs their offense to be more balanced in this game, as Georgia has very good defensive backs so Auburn can not solely rely on the passing game.

Georgia clinched an SEC East title in their last game against Kentucky. Georgia won this game by putting up 340 rushing yards, led by 156 from D’Andre Swift, and 115 by Elijah Holyfield. On defense, Georgia held Kentucky to just 2.4 yards per carry, which was huge since Kentucky relies so much on Benny Snell and their run game. To win this game, Georgia’s offensive line needs to hold off Derrick Brown and Auburn’s defensive line. Georgia also needs to slow down Auburn’s passing game as Auburn has had many deficiencies when it comes to running the ball.

While it may look like Georgia should run away with this game, you never know in rivalry games and Auburn did upset Georgia 40-17 in this game last season.

Prediction:

Georgia gashes Auburn in a 35-17 win.

Texas at Texas Tech

Analysis:

Last week Texas Tech played a close game with Oklahoma that they had multiple opportunities to win. While that close game may be looked at as a good thing, what is bad for Texas Tech is that quarterback Alan Bowman is likely done for the season as he re-injured his partially collapsed lung. While backup Jett Duffey has some game experience and is a good running threat, he has shown weakness in the passing game. Receivers TJ Vasher and Antoine Wesley will need to help Duffey out. For this game, Texas Tech will need to find some way to exploit Texas’s secondary, and hope Duffey can make some big throws. On defense, if they can force some errors like they did early against Oklahoma, they will be in good shape.

Texas had their second straight loss last week to West Virginia, and seem to be on the verge of a tailspin. Texas had a very hard time stopping the run, and basically let West Virginia quarterback Will Grier do whatever he wanted. In other words, Texas’s defense was about as effective as a wet paper bag. Texas’s defense also played poorly against Oklahoma State two weeks ago as well. On offense, Sam Ehlinger was practically a one man show. Ehlinger threw for 354 yards, ran for 52 yards, and had four total touchdowns. The only other star on offense was Lil’Jordan Humphrey with 143 receiving yards. I really am not too worried about Texas’s offense doing well in this game, but the defense greatly concerns me. If Texas can stop the run and force an inexperienced quarterback to make big throws, they will be in good shape. But with that, their secondary has to come through as well.

Texas needs to win this game if they want a realistic chance to make the Big 12 Championship. Texas Tech would love to take a second straight win against an in state opponent. This game will likely come down to which defense plays better. The announcers will also likely be references to the game between these teams in Lubbock in 2008 and it will give me PTSD (how did you not catch that easy interception Blake Gideon?).

Prediction:

Texas wins a shootout 41-35.

Florida State at Notre Dame

Analysis:

Notre Dame improved to 9-0 on the season after notching a win against Northwestern. Notre Dame’s defense held strong up until the fourth quarter. Their defense did a good job of not allowing Northwestern to break off big plays, and only allowed 3.6 yards per play (I am pretty sure that is good). Their success on defense is largely owed to Daelin Hayes and Te’Von Coney. On offense, Ian Book threw for 343 yards, and ran for 56 with a total of 399 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately for Notre Dame, Book is listed as out for this game leaving Brandon Wimbush to return as starter. Wimbush was benched for Book earlier in the season so while he is a clear step down, he does have experience and is better than most backups in the country. To settle Wimbush in, expect Dexter Williams to get his fair share of carries, and if they can do that successfully, this game should be an easy win for the Fighting Irish.

Florida State is having a pretty disastrous season so far. After their loss to North Carolina State, they are in very real danger of missing a bowl game. Quarterback Deondre Francois is questionable (I very selfishly am annoyed when coaches list this as the status for a player) for the game, but James Blackman had a very solid performance in his place with 421 passing yards and four touchdowns. What led to Florida State posing this game was their offensive line collapsing, and allowing North Carolina State’s offense to do what they wanted. Against Notre Dame, Florida State will need their offensive line to have a better performance as that will be the one way their offense can have success against a very good Notre Dame defense. They also need to try and slow down the run game, as Notre Dame will rely heavily on the run with their starting quarterback out.

Notre Dame needs to win out the rest of the season if they want to ensure their status in the playoff. Florida State needs to maintain bowl eligibility. The talent discrepancy is really not that much between these teams, it is just that Florida State rarely plays to their talent level.

Prediction:

Notre Dame runs away with this game 35-17.

Clemson at Boston College

Analysis:

Clemson remained undefeated after completely thrashing Louisville 77-16 last week. Clemson had three different players run for 100 yards while also having under 10 carries. Travis Etienne led the way with 153 rushing yards on just eight carries. On defense, Clemson had six sacks and two interceptions. It is really hard to gauge too much from this game besides Clemson completely blowing Louisville out. Clemson has actually won their last four games by 30 points or more, albeit against teams that are not top quality. For this game, Clemson needs to prevent Boston College running back AJ Dillon from running wild. Clemson’s elite defensive line will need to play like it in order to do that.

Boston College is now 7-2 after beating Virginia Tech last week. The Eagles defense prevented Virginia Tech from getting too far on the ground, allowing less than three yards per carry. Boston College also flipped that on Virginia Tech by running for 238 yards themselves. AJ Dillon did not have his best game, running for 96 yards on 24 carries, but Travis Levy was able to put in 75 yards of his own. Linebacker Isaiah McDuffie led the way on defense for the Eagles with 13 total tackles. Against Clemson, Boston College needs their offensive line to contain Clemson’s elite defensive line unit. If they can do that, it will be easier for AJ Dillon to run, and it can give quarterback Anthony Brown more time to throw.

The winner of this game will likely end up winning the ACC Atlantic division. Clemson needs to remain undefeated to preserve their playoff hopes. This game is the site of college GameDay, so expect a crazy crowd at Chestnut Hill.

Prediction:

Boston College keeps it close, until Clemson overwhelms them as Clemson wins 34-17.

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