Another week in the the books for the 2018 season! I’ll take a look at some of the hottest and coldest hitters this past week. I will give some thoughts on buys/sells/holds based on recent performance and underlying analysis. Quick note, my boy Ozzie Albies has 2 more XBHs today with a bomb and a double and continues to be the best 21 year old in the bigs. Tommy Pham appears to have corrected his issues with his eyes increasing his walk rate and swinging out of the zone only 20% of the time. Oh and has 2 steals today giving him 5 on the season. A 20-30 season is within reach.

Mookie Betts doing Mookie things. He’s hitting .375 with a homer, 11 runs and 9 RBI. He’s walking more than he’s striking out and is boasting a near 50% hard contact rate. His O-Swing and SwStr are both abut half of the league average. He’s poised for one of his best seasons especially if he keeps this up when the weather heats up.

Javier Baez had back-to-back two homer games earlier this week and he’s chipped in with a steal. He’s only hitting .211 in the last seven days. This is what you get from Baez. If you can sell him high, I’d go ahead and try it. His O-Swing and Swstr are just about in line with his career numbers. I don’t believe he’s improving in his approach even though his walk rate is up to 12% due to four IBB. There will be great games like this from Baez but there will be long cold stretches throughout the season.

Asdrubal Cabrera just keeps hitting. He was overlooked in drafts with the signing of Todd Fraizer and Amed Rosario in line as the starting shortstop. However, he’s basically been the everyday second baseman for the Mets. He’s hitting .440 with 3 homers this past week. This looks legit and I’m picking him up in 2 team and deeper leagues. He’s hitting more fly balls and making more contact than ever. He’s hit .280 each of the last to years averaging more than 18 homers. With more contact and more fly balls, he could hit 20-25 bombs given every day at bats.

Jose Martinez is for real! He’s on a .417 2 homer, 10 RBI week. The good: 7% K rate with a 10.7% walk rate backed up by a 3.8% SwStr rate and a 38% Swing rate. The bad: 51% ground ball rate, 20% IFFB, and only 29% hard contact rate. I’m not sure how to take all this information. It’s incredible that he’s able to make that much contact at 6 foot 6! I’d definitely own him but I wouldn’t buy high. I’m currently holding him in leagues where I own him. I want to see a little more from him before I make a conclusion, but he should be owned in all leagues (obviously).

Steve Pearce has had a nice week hitting 3 bombs and driving in 6 runs. That’s nice. Pearce is a decent hitter but a terrible fielder. With the injury to Donaldson, he may get some extra playing time but they recalled Teoscar Hernandez who I loike if he can stick around. Go ahead and sell Pearce of you can or leave him on the wire.

Edwin Encarnacion is 3 for his last 25 with no homers and RBI this past week. Most of the Indians forgot that the season started early this year and are taking a while to heat up. E5 bashed 3 dingers in week 1 but hasn’t done anything since. I’m a little concerned as his strikeout and walk rates are heading in opposite directions (in a bad way). His batted ball profile looks ok other than a low liner rate but that should stabilize. I’m holding for now, but keep an eye on E5 as he’s now 35 and the decline could be immanent.

Nicholas Castellanos is on a 6 for 27 stretch with 1 run and 2 RBI this week. He’s without a home run on the season and I’m buying. See in an owner is getting tired of his lack of fire power. He’s hitting the ball over 50% of the time and is hitting nearly 30% line drives. He likely won;t maintain that percentage but he’s poised to hot for a high average and his fly balls should increase as the line drives go down. The homers will come. I’m not ruling out a possible 30 homer campaign from NC.

Pitchers

2016 Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello has an ERA of 1.88, 0.56 WHIP, and 2 wins in 14 1/3 innings this past week. After a disappointing 2017, he was an afterthought in drafts. I’m buying back in 2018. No to the Cy Young level, but he looks different. He’s throwing his sinker, slider, and change more and his fastball (which is bad) is being thrown only 12% of the time. I wouldn’t grab him for Ks but should be able to check a sub 4.00 ERA with a good WHIP if he continues to limit walks. The Red Sox should be able to gift wrap a ton of wins as well.

Shohei Ohtani has been a man among boys so far from both sides of the plate. The pitcher Ohtani has been almost unhittable thus far. Owners likely aren’t selling and I’m ok with that. I know what we’ve seen to date has been incredible and he’s more than proven he’s a stud. I worry about the fatigue over the course of the entire season with Ohtani playing both sides and not getting enough rest. I also think the second and third time teams face him combined with fatigue could lower his value in the second half. I’m buying in dynasty but in redrafts, I might sell after a few more starts ONLY if you can get a haul. I’d sell him for a top 25 hitter or a top 10 SP, no less than that in redrafts.

Sonny Gray has not had a great start to the 2018 season. His 6.92 ERA and 1.92 WHIP is not what owners expected when he was drafted as a top 30 starter. His BB percentage is over 10% for the first time in his career and a .409 BABIP and likely the two culprits of Gray’s poor start. His 10+ K/9 however, is a great sign. Also, a 60% ground ball rate and a 27% hard contact rate make me want to buy Gray where you can. The velocity looks good and he’s throwing the curve over 30% for the first time, so the Ks may be there to stay.