“With the eighth overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Detroit Lions select Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson.”

If that happens, I will be mightily confused, so let me explain with the use of a metaphor. The Detroit Lions are a baseball pitcher warming up in the bullpen, throwing 98 mph heat, about to enter the game. The gas this pitcher is throwing represents the Lions’ approach to free agency, a clear and present sense of urgency and an understanding that they need to improve upon last year’s results.

The pitcher then takes to the mound, winds up, and throws a knuckleball that clears the umpire and drills the mascot in the horse costume. The knuckleball is the selection of Hockenson, and it is a departure from their approach since the league year started.

The Lions and Hockenson have been tied at the hip since he declared for the draft. The Lions do have a clear need at the position, and Hockenson is considered the draft’s best combo tight end; he has been an effective blocker and a weapon as a receiver in college play.

However, there are many reasons to think that Hockenson might not make as much sense as some fans and media think. First, the Lions’ urgency in this free agent period has demonstrated their desire to bring in players that can help immediately. Not only was last year not good enough, but it was also a clear step back, and Quinn and Patricia know it. Would it make sense for the Lions to select a player that likely will not help this season?

Generally speaking, tight ends are late bloomers from an NFL perspective as they take much longer to develop into productive players than do players at other positions. It is going to take quite some time before Hockenson can become a player that helps this offense and there has to be a consideration about how much time is available to this group of decision-makers and coaches.

Taking this a little deeper, we need to understand that the tight end has not been all that utilized with quarterback Matt Stafford at the helm.

In 2018, the Lions targeted tight ends 67 times, which was second-fewest in the NFL.

In 2017, the Lions threw to the tight end 119 times, which was No. 13 in the NFL.

In 2016, the Lions were No. 25 in tight end targets with 93.

In 2015, they were No. 22 in the NFL with 101 targets to the tight end.

In 2014, the Lions were No. 27 in the NFL in targeting the position with 78 targets.

In 2013, before the selection of Eric Ebron, the Lions were No. 16 in tight end usage with 110 total targets to the position.

To that end, we need to determine what new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has done with the position to truly get a feel for what this offense can do at tight end. This is the data for what Bevell did with tight ends during his last five seasons as offensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks.

2013: Zach Miller led the team with 56 targets. The Seahawks were No. 27 overall in tight end targets with 88.

2014: Luke Willson led the team with 40 targets. The Seahawks were No. 24 overall in tight end targets with 84.

2015: Jimmy Graham led the team with 74 targets. The Seahawks were No. 15 overall in tight end targets with 127.

2016: Jimmy Graham led the team with 95 targets. The Seahawks were No. 12 overall in tight end targets with 123.

2017: Jimmy Graham led the team with 96 targets. The Seahawks were No. 8 overall in tight end targets with 133.

Bevell has never utilized the tight end as it has not been a big part of his scheme, even when presented with an elite pass catcher at the position. The numbers show the most the Seahawks could do was to get Graham six targets per game, and that is not enough. Is there enough volume to warrant the selection of a tight end at No. 8 overall for this offense?

Again, the Lions are picking at a premium spot in the 2019 draft, and the value of the position/player must be considered. Hockenson is a safe prospect, and he is an excellent athlete, but he is somewhat oversold as a blocker. The reality here is that Hockenson is not being considered this high unless he truly possesses a rare combination of inline ability with the athletic ability to stretch out a defense and create a significant mismatch for a defense. That is simply overselling his abilities.

There is a misconception about Hockenson as a blocker. He is a good blocker at the college level. I repeat: He is a good blocker at the college level for those who missed it the first time. Honestly, there are moments where he looks like an excellent blocker, but those moments are juxtaposed with just as many plays where he looks lost, whiffs, or gets tossed around a bit.

When watching the film, there are some splash blocks that make it seem like he is utterly dominant, but there are just as many that have me concerned. I think he’ll be adequate as a blocker in the NFL, but the concept that he will be a Harvester of Sorrow (thank you Metallica) as a blocker in the NFL is unlikely.

Here are a few videos that give me pause about his ability as a blocker.

Hockenson whiffing on the LB who comes in a makes the tackle for loss. pic.twitter.com/oNZToOEOvB — Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) March 14, 2019

Tough assignement here, but Penn State #48 sheds him pretty easily to make a play on the runner. pic.twitter.com/pRJULTJfRc — Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) March 14, 2019

Hockenson coming across the formation to take on Miss. St. DE Montez Sweat, and a whiffs on the cut block. Again, that's a tough assignment but this is the kind of athlete he'll see in the NFL and the types of blocks he will be asked to make. pic.twitter.com/2G5KSLDVvk — Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) March 14, 2019

Another one coming across the formation against Sweat again. He is late and can't catch up to get a piece of Sweat to push him past the QB. pic.twitter.com/di0M1hD6Vo — Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) March 14, 2019

Hockenson getting tossed around a little by a Mississippi State defensive back at the line of scrimmage. pic.twitter.com/A63Hw8JTMo — Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott) March 14, 2019

Lastly, the Lions moved on from Ebron even as he was showing signs of emerging as a player in his fourth season with the team. Yes, there are other reasons they released him, but they decided paying him whatever money he would require would be poorly spent as there just were not enough targets for him.

That decision was one year ago, and while things have changed, it would be confusing to see this group jump back into the tight end market at No. 8 overall given what is laid out in this article. The selection of Hockenson would be confusing on multiple levels for this franchise, and it would not match the way they have put the puzzle pieces together to this point.