Since the start of the year, 17 Republicans have announced their intention to run for president. They’ve logged more than a million miles across the early states and held more than 100 town halls between them. Combined, they’ve raised $302 million for their campaigns and accompanying super PACs.

But all of that is prologue to this week, when a handful of forums and debates will begin the next stage of the 2016 GOP primary: the winnowing.


On Monday night, 14 of the 17 GOP contenders will gather in Manchester, New Hampshire, and take the stage, one at a time, for a candidate forum that will be broadcast live on C-SPAN and in three early states.

Then on Thursday, attention shifts to Cleveland, where FOX News Channel will host the big show — the first prime-time, nationally televised debate featuring the top 10 candidates, determined by an average of recent national polls. Those who miss the cut will take part in the undercard, a battle for the bottom tier that is also being broadcast live earlier in the evening.

“The real contest for the nomination starts with this debate,” said Charlie Black, a veteran Republican lobbyist and strategist who served as an adviser to John McCain’s 2008 campaign. “We have a large number of very good, qualified candidates who now get a chance to get some attention and some news coverage, to maybe break away from the all-Trump-all-the-time syndrome.”

For all the focus on Donald Trump — who will be fittingly positioned at the center of the stage Thursday night by virtue of currently sitting atop all national polls — and whether he’ll bring his characteristic bombast and pick fights with the other candidates, many expect he’ll be gone by March when the last of the GOP’s scheduled debates is slated to take place.

“I’d be very surprised if Donald Trump was a candidate on the ballot come Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Stuart Stevens, a GOP strategist who helped guide Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign.

But for candidates nervously waiting out the summer of Trump, it’s impossible to look beyond Thursday night. The first debate isn’t determinative, but the stakes are enormous: Aside from the opportunity to make a positive first impression with a broad national audience, it’s a moment to assuage nervous donors — or perhaps win over new ones with a lights-out performance.

“You’re not going to win the nomination in the first debate, but you could lose it if you make a mistake,” Black said. “You can lose it on any given day, but especially in a debate — just ask Rick Perry.”

Perry, who may not even make the first debate (he’s currently in 11th place), serves as a cautionary tale after a momentary brain freeze during a November 2011 primary debate instantly turned him from front-runner to laughingstock, effectively ending his campaign.

At this juncture in the campaign, there’s been plenty of speculation about whether the candidates widely considered to constitute the top tier — Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio — are ready for their moment on the stage.

Walker, who’s quietly been boning up on policy after a couple of early gaffes threatened to slow the momentum created by a single speech in January, has a chance to end the whispers about his grasp of policy. Rubio, a first-term senator thought to be one of the GOP’s best communicators, can showcase his ability to connect with audiences and address the elephant in the room — his position on immigration reform.

Bush, who hasn’t run for office in over a decade, will need to shrug off the rust and gird for a pile-on from the other nine candidates. Then there’s the matter of escaping his last name.

“Jeb Bush has no higher priority than to define himself as his own man and a positive force for change,” said Steve Schmidt, a GOP strategist who advised McCain’s 2008 campaign.

While it will take several debates, and more intense early-state campaigning, to fully answer those questions, the first few high-profile intramurals this week could clear up some of the clutter in the 17-candidate field. Should a long-shot candidate pull off a breakthrough with a memorable turn on stage or a performance that far exceeds the audience’s lower expectations, it could serve as rocket fuel.

At the same time, a poor performance on the prime-time debate stage — or even the failure to earn a place at the adult table by virtue of dropping outside the top 10 — could create a hole that’s impossible to dig out from.

Just as a poor showing in 2011’s first signature event, the Iowa Straw Poll, forced Tim Pawlenty to drop out of the GOP nomination fight early, this cycle’s first debates — the next one takes place in September at the Reagan Library in California — could have a similar winnowing effect this year in the wake of the Iowa Straw Poll’s cancellation.

But while campaign veterans acknowledge the week’s stakes, they express caution about drawing too much from the events.

“Remember, the first debate that they had in 2012, Mitt Romney wasn’t even in it,” Stevens said. “I don’t think what’s going to happen is going to be definitive, but you never know. If someone does something that is particularly smart or dumb, it could have a real impact.

“But I don’t think anybody should be looking to close the sale in the first debate. It’s an introduction. Billions of dollars have been spent to convince people to do their Christmas shopping in August, and that hasn’t been very successful. No matter what campaigns do, voters are going to take their time to figure this out.”