Early in a new football season, there’s a tendency for recreational bettors to overreact to what’s “working” and what “isn’t working.”

If they lost some college bets taking teams with more returning starters, they’ll decide experience doesn’t matter. If they won some bets investing in the superior quarterback, they’ll figure that’s all it takes to win. Throw out what doesn’t work … keep what does … piece of cake!

No, it’s not that easy, particularly through a small sample size.

Sometimes bad betting strategies catch a few breaks. Sometimes smart strategies lose. Novice blackjack players hitting a 14 on a hunch against a vulnerable dealer before catching a six or a seven haven’t stumbled onto a great new approach. They made bad bets that happened to win. On the other end of the spectrum, card counters can go on dry runs that last weeks.

Last week, VSiN talked about the ceiling of 54-55 percent hanging over the head of longtime bettors. That also limits what any particular sharp “strategy” can accomplish. Something that works is still going to lose quite often. Don’t throw out smart approaches just because you lost a few early-season bets with them.

And the worst thing you can do is limit yourself to only what was “working” out of the gate. That just means you’re about to crash when the approach regresses to the mean.

If you’re off to a good start: Review game summaries and box scores of your picks to see if you benefitted from good luck. Maybe turnovers or special teams points went your way in extreme fashion. Maybe the opponent faded under pressure in the fourth quarter. Those factors won’t always be in your favor.

If you’re off to a bad start: Try to determine if you suffered from common recreational “leaks” in your approach. Were you betting too many overhyped favorites? Were you wrongly assuming mediocre quarterbacks from last season were going to take a leap forward? Were you using systems and trends that were more likely to be trivia than anything meaningful? Did your alma mater cost you a bet or two?

VSiN emphasizes handicapping based on skill sets at both the playing and coaching level. Then, tweak based on potential motivational factors (letdowns, lookaheads, rivalry revenge, etc.). Try to determine what the right line should be based on those elements and home-field advantage. Then see if the market has priced the game in similar fashion.

You have a better sense now of skill sets (particularly in the colleges) than you did a few weeks ago. You’ve probably had a few wake-up calls about certain major college head coaches, too. Buzz is already diminishing in several NFL cities after just one week of action.

If you focus on what’s most likely to happen on the field moving forward, smart choices will make themselves regardless of what happened with your previous bets.