First, most Americans (53 percent in the latest Fox News poll) think the federal government reacted too slowly. As NPR reports: “It’s possible current polling is a lagging indicator from Trump publicly taking the virus more seriously than he had been previously. Surveys so far largely aren’t reflecting Trump’s pivot this week to suggesting he wants to reopen the economy within weeks.” We are going to see eight months of stories about the Trump administration’s failures and their effects on the outcome of the pandemic.

Second, the bump is minuscule by historical standards:

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According to data from the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center, George W. Bush after 9/11 and before the Iraq War, George H.W. Bush before the Gulf War, Ronald Reagan during the Grenada military action and the Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon, and Jimmy Carter at the outset of the Iran hostage crisis all saw much bigger rally-around-the flag approval bounces than either Trump (so far) or Obama.

President George W. Bush’s approval soared to 90 percent after 9/11; President George H.W. Bush’s approval rose to nearly 80 percent in 1992 after the Gulf War. As much as the media plays up the Trump base’s imperviousness to bad news and evidence of Trump’s mendacity and incompetence, an even larger share of the country believes that there is nothing Trump could do to vindicate himself.

Third, in comparison with foreign leaders, Trump’s approval bump is puny. The British prime minister’s approval is at 70 percent (an enormous turnaround from his approval in the low 30s when he took office), Germany’s Angela Merkel garners 75 percent, and arguably the world’s worst hot spot, Italy, gives its leader, Giuseppe Conte, a 73 percent approval rating.

Fourth, the 2020 presidential election, more than any ever, will be a referendum on Trump. Before the virus struck, the economy was considered his lifeline. If we are in a recession — or perhaps even a depression, with unemployment numbers in double digits and the stock market lower than it was when Trump started — it is hard to see what Trump will claim as his great achievement. Trump’s success depends on what is now unknowable, namely the toll the virus takes on Americans’ lives and livelihood.

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It also depends on where the virus does the most damage. Trump and his followers have begun suggesting that remaining in lockdown to save lives is worse than going back to work soon and suffering greater casualties. The “pro-life” party shows itself to be horrifically indifferent to human life. That formula might “work” so long as the majority of deaths are located in New York, New Jersey and California. But perhaps when the disease shifts to states that backed Trump — such as Florida, Georgia, Michigan or Louisiana — the trade-off might suddenly strike many as monstrous. When Trump starts talking about their parents, friends and colleagues, even Trump’s cultists might take offense. Moreover, when the death toll climbs and the recession deepens in their states, Trump’s happy talk about a quick recovery might seem cruel and stupid.

If you think the coronavirus is a passing blip in our national life, you will likely expect Trump to come through this unscathed and still get credit for what was a good economy before disaster struck. If, however, you take seriously the economic and health modeling showing the enormous toll that the virus will take on us, do not expect voters to reward Trump with reelection. The buck does actually stop with him.