Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — November 2nd, 2017

In this weekly segment, I apply numbers to context in an effort to uncover plausible trajectories in the wild world of fantasy football. Last week’s segment had me covering Josh Doctson, Alshon Jeffery vs Nelson Agholor, Marlon Mack, Dez Bryant and Hunter Henry. Welcome to Trends and Takeaways Week 9. Cheers!

The Saints are officially a run-first team

Some speculated such a transition following the signing of Adrian Peterson. Just one season prior, the Dallas Cowboys utilized their top-notch offensive line and running game to dominate the time of possession, keeping their less-than-stellar defense off the field. It appears Sean Payton caught wind of the blueprint. Since the Peterson trade, Mark Ingram and Alvin Karama have seen a rise in volume and productivity. However, the drop in Drew Brees’ production has been equally noteworthy.

The veteran signal-caller, perennially in the top 5 fantasy producers at his position, has scored 20 fantasy points just twice at the season’s half. Additionally, New Orleans’ winning streak gives little incentive to increase Brees’ passing volume. The Saints’ quarterback has been very efficient with his lessened attempts and still ranks inside the top 10 in most important metrics at his position, but he’s unlikely to reach the lofty standards many have come to expect.

What to make of Jay Ajayi to the Eagles

Are we sleeping on Jay Ajayi?

He has a distinct role in this league: Run downhill and punish defenders. If running lanes are open, he’s capable of exploding into the second level and breaking off long runs. While more of a run-through-you than a run-around-you type of player, the bludgeoning back is nonetheless capable of shaking defenders with explosive jump-cuts. However, his receiving ability limits his overall upside, capping him as a two-down hammer ideally paired with a satellite back. And that’s exactly what the Patriots and Eagles have done. (See what I did there?)

Howie Roseman claims LeGarrette Blount will remain the starter. This may well be the case. It doesn’t matter as the Eagles apply a game-plan specific approach to how they distribute carries. So far this year, no Eagles RB has topped 16 carries, with Blount reaching the number twice. Shockingly, the Eagles running back with the highest average snap share all season is the injured Darren Sproles, at an uninspiring 42.9%. Jay Ajayi is almost certainly going to see a lower volume of carries in Philadelphia compared to Miami, but his per-touch efficiency will rise behind a better offensive line. Rather than the Eagles trying to obtain a workhorse back, this is more likely a Howie Roseman move for the future, as Blount is signed to a one year deal and could be gone after the season. Ajayi makes for a younger, cheaper replacement, under contract through 2018. The former Dolphin is nothing more than a flex play until the Eagles show they are willing to deviate from their game-plan specific approach, or drastically reduce the roles of Corey Clement and LeGarrette Blount.

Biggest beneficiary from the Jimmy Garoppolo trade?

Jimmy Garoppolo should easily be the most impactful signal-caller on the 49ers the moment he sets foot in San Francisco. It’s impossible to know how good he will be with little NFL experience, and therefore limited statistical precedence. However, any improvement will extend drives, rest the defense, and make the average game more competitive.

While many are excited for a potential breakout of Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Patriot-doppleganger Trent Taylor, and even George Kittle, the real story will be in the reversal of game-script. While all of these players could see an uptick in efficiency thanks to competent quarterbacking, it is the run game that will benefit the most, namely Carlos Hyde. Despite playing over 70% of snaps, the Ohio State product is averaging just 14 carries. If Garoppolo is able to keep the 49ers in games, it’s unlikely they’ll sustain their average of 42 pass plays; a product of garbage-time football. With more balanced play calling being afforded by an uptick in offensive efficiency, Hyde stands to see the greatest increase in volume. After a couple weeks of mediocre production, you may be able to buy low on the 49ers’ workhorse from a disappointed owner.

With Jordan Reed out, Vernon Davis is a solid play

Old Vernon still has juice (via Keith Allison — Wikimedia Commons)

Jordan Reed has been on the field for 65% of offensive snaps compared to Vernon Davis’ 69% snap share. However, despite missing a game, Reed leads the two in targets 35–22. Reed also doubles Davis’ red zone usage and touchdowns scored.

Sadly, Jordan Reed has an extensive injury history, which includes several concussions. This has prevented the stud tight end from playing a full 16 game season even once. He’s now expected to miss week 9 with a hamstring ailment. This troubling history caused me to cross reference Reed’s stats with his tight end running-mate. As one might expect, Vernon Davis becomes a more active component in the passing game with Reed out. This season, in games that Reed has missed extensive time or their entirety, Davis has seen 27 and 31 routes run. In games Reed played, his routes run are 9, 13, 9, 15, and 13. In the 6 games games Reed has missed since 2016 (including this past week vs Dallas), Davis has averaged 3.5 catches for 44 yards and .33 TDs. That equates to 56 catches for 704 yards and 5.3 TDs over the course of a 16 game season. Solid, nothing more.

Verdict: Davis still has some juice and makes for a good spot-start against susceptible defenses or as a bye week fill in, but if his trajectory remains consistent, he’s far from a 1 for 1 Jordan Reed replacement.

Put some respect on Josh McCown

When someone says 2017 Matt Ryan > Josh McCown

The guy has guts. He’s been with the two franchises where quarterbacks go to die, the Browns and Jets, yet he just keeps kicking. ESPN circles haven’t caught on. Sure, I understand that the “wow factor” isn’t there, that he doesn’t have great weapons around him, and that he plays on one of the more miserable franchises in recent memory. Yet, in 5 of 8 games he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns. In half of his games he’s scored more than 15 fantasy points, averaging 15.2 points per game on the season. Sure, not groundbreaking, but it’s relatively impressive.

Somehow, McCown is owned in just 26% of leagues. To put that into perspective, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger are owned in 74% of leagues, Jameis Winston in 86%, Derek Carr in 85%, Tyrod Taylor in 65%, and Matt Ryan in a mind-shattering 97%! All of these players are averaging less points per game than Josh McCown. We’re halfway through the season, it’s time to take notice. Name recognition might make us comfortable but it doesn’t win games.

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