The most interesting players are the ones where smart people can disagree. Perhaps no player on the current Mets fits this bill better than Zack Wheeler. On one hand, you have people who wonder what the fuss is since he consistently wields high pitch counts and has shown almost no ability to complete seven innings. On the other hand, you have people who wish he went deeper into games but who appreciate his 6.2 IP, 1 ER outings and view him as a great asset to the staff.

Wheeler made 32 starts last year and only twice all season did he complete seven innings. Many times it seemed he was on the ropes the first three innings and only a well-timed defensive play or the good fortune of the pitcher coming to bat bailed him out of potentially disastrous innings. Some feel that while his overall numbers look okay, he was a fortunate break or two away from results which may have merited a ticket to the minors.

Others think that after a dreadful first nine games, Wheeler came on and gave the Mets consistently good outings. In his final 23 games, he had a 3.05 ERA and a 1.231 WHIP. With a normal .291 BABIP, he limited opposing batters to a .645 OPS. Additionally, he fanned 141 batters in 135.2 innings in this stretch.

We all agree that we want starters to go seven or more innings each and every time out. Wheeler’s inability to do this is a mark against him. The big question is how much of a hindrance is his need to be relieved in the seventh inning? If it were a crime, would it be closer to a felony or a misdemeanor?

Wheeler pitched 6.0 or 6.1 or 6.2 innings in 20 starts this past year. His record was 9-3 (.750) in those games. Thanks to the Baseball-Reference Play Index, we know that overall in the National League, there were 468 games where the starter pitched between 6.0 and 6.2 innings. League starters went 238-76 (.758) in those games.

But there’s more to it than just the starter’s record. How about the team? After all, one of the issues is that by not going deeper into games, Wheeler is asking the bullpen to deliver more innings. The Mets were 12-8 in those 20 games. Good, but significantly worse than Wheeler’s own record.

Meanwhile, the league as a whole went 313-155 (.669) when a starting pitcher went between 6.0 and 6.2 IP. So the Mets were one game worse than expected in these 20 outings of Wheeler’s. So, was this the fault of Wheeler, the relief pitching, the defense, the offense or maybe just bad luck? There’s no easy answer to that question.

But, that’s not really the question that we’re interested in, is it?

How much does Wheeler hurt the club by not completing seven innings? That’s a question that’s a little easier to answer. Here are the numbers for the National League in 2014 for various breakdowns. The chart below combines 6.1 and 6.2 IP outings to get a larger sample size.

IP ER G Record WPct 6.0 0 64 47-17 .734 6.0 1 129 92-37 .713 6.0 2 139 75-64 .540 6.1-6.2 0 34 28-6 .824 6.1-6.2 1 46 35-11 .761 6.1-6.2 2 56 36-20 .643 7.0 0 123 104-19 .846 7.0 1 163 108-55 .663 7.0 2 118 64-54 .542

To me this chart is fascinating. The pattern we see when the SP allows 0 ER is what we would expect to find. The numbers are good across the board and improve the longer the starter goes in the game. But that pattern does not hold when the SP gives up runs.

There’s an increase from 6.0 to 6.1-6.2 but then a decrease when we up the total to 7.0 IP. And there’s actually a drop in winning percentage from 6.0 IP, 1 ER (.713) to 7.0 IP, 1 ER (.663). And the two states are virtually equal when the starter allows 2 ER.

Of course, this is just a one-year sample. Let’s do another year and see if these patterns hold. Here’s the NL data for 2013:

IP ER G Record WPct 6.0 0 66 51-15 .773 6.0 1 114 73-41 .640 6.0 2 130 64-66 .492 6.1-6.2 0 26 22-4 .846 6.1-6.2 1 41 30-11 .732 6.1-6.2 2 63 37-26 .587 7.0 0 109 92-17 .844 7.0 1 149 104-45 .698 7.0 2 137 73-64 .533

In this year, when the SP allowed 0 ER, his winning percentage jumped when he pitched more innings but there was virtually no difference between 6.1-6.2 and 7.0 IP. Once again, when the SP allowed 1 ER, we saw an increase going from 6.0 to 6.1-6.2 but then a drop when we increase again to 7.0 IP. And this time, when the SP allowed 2 ER, the pattern followed when he allowed 1 ER.

Let’s do one more year and look at the same breakdowns for 2012. However, while the run environment in the NL was virtually the same between ’13 and ’14 (4.00 vs 3.95), there was about a quarter of a run more scored per team in ’12 (4.22).

IP ER G Record WPct 6.0 0 62 53-9 .855 6.0 1 111 83-28 .748 6.0 2 143 70-73 .490 6.1-6.2 0 28 22-6 .786 6.1-6.2 1 41 35-6 .854 6.1-6.2 2 58 37-21 .638 7.0 0 100 89-11 .890 7.0 1 166 114-52 .687 7.0 2 118 68-50 .576

This time we do not have the expected pattern with 0 ER allowed, as the team winning percentage went down when we increased to the 6.1-6.2 level. But the 7.0 IP level underperformed versus the 6.1-6.2 level in games with both 1 and 2 ER. It doesn’t make intuitive sense but it has been a consistent pattern.

Let’s do one last chart, combining the 2012-2014 NL numbers. We do this with the understanding that the run environment was different in ’12 but hopefully not a big enough difference to outweigh the benefit of the larger sample size among our various IP-ER states.

IP ER G Record WPct 6.0 0 192 151-41 .786 6.0 1 354 248-106 .701 6.0 2 412 209-203 .507 6.1-6.2 0 88 72-16 .818 6.1-6.2 1 128 100-28 .781 6.1-6.2 2 177 110-67 .621 7.0 0 332 285-47 .858 7.0 1 478 326-152 .682 7.0 2 373 202-171 .542

Unsurprisingly, the best result out of these nine states was for the starting pitcher to throw seven shutout innings, which resulted in a win for the team 86 percent of the time. Another thing we can say for sure is that it’s more important once a starter reaches 6 IP to limit runs than to maximize innings. Six innings pitched and no earned runs winds up with a team record over 100 points higher in winning percentage than seven innings and one earned run. Over a 162-game season, the difference in winning percentage in those two states is 17 games.

It also holds true that it’s preferable to post a 6 IP, 1 ER line than a 7 IP, 2 ER line. And in the fractional innings pitched the same principle holds.

Of course these are league totals and individual totals can and will be different. How desirable the extra inning or partial inning is will vary depending on the strength of the team, including the manager’s ability to run a good bullpen. One can certainly argue that the recent Mets with their questionable bullpens and bullpen deployment would benefit from the extra outs from their starting pitcher.

Looking at these numbers on a macro level, it makes sense to prioritize run prevention over inning maximization. But it also makes sense to pick and choose times to push your starter. A burnt out bullpen could be one of those times. Additionally, the success of the SP should be considered, as not all 6 IP, 1 ER outings are created equal. A game in which the pitcher gave up a solo homer to the leadoff batter and has been cruising since is a completely different thing than one in which in the sixth inning the starter loaded the bases and escaped with only one run because of a DP ball and a HR-saving catch by your Gold Glove outfielder.

My expectation is that the 2015 Mets bullpen will be better than the 2012-2014 versions and there’s optimism the offense will be better, too. If you agree with that subjective opinion and then combine it with the objective numbers presented above – then there’s little reason to gnash teeth if Wheeler’s final line has a “6” instead of a “7” in the IP column as long as the ER allowed are one or none.

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