Joe Biden is spending Saturday at the premiere event for black lawmakers in Washington, an appearance seen widely as a chance to test the waters for a 2016 bid among a crucial constituency.

But interviews with nearly a dozen Congressional Black Caucus members this week make it clear: Biden will be walking into Clinton territory. The conversations point to a deep base of support for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that’s unlikely to change,even if Biden enters the race.


“I don’t see a serious primary at all,” Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.). “The Clintons have inroads with the black community,and I really don’t see a contest at all. Biden is my buddy,but he’s not going anywhere.”

The African-American lawmakers say they have deep respect for both politicians but overwhelmingly back Clinton, who has been reaching out to black caucus members since she launched her presidential bid earlier this year.

Biden decided last week to attend the high-profile Congressional Black Caucus Foundation event, a last-minute move that comes as speculation mounts about whether he’ll launch an 11th-hour bid for president. President Barack Obama is the keynote speaker at the dinner.

Sources close to Biden told POLITICO he will also attend other events throughout the weekend for the foundation’s policy conference. Clinton was already scheduled to attend events and is holding a reception for black lawmakers Saturday.

But even if Biden—who has long been considered a close friend of the African-American community—enters the race, leading figures in the caucus say they expect their colleagues to back Clinton.



A number of them already have: Twenty-seven of the caucus’ nearly four dozen members have publicly endorsed Clinton.

And they already are campaigning for her. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) traveled to Iowa to meet with faith leaders, Ohio Rep. Marcia Fudge held an organizing event for Clinton while Sen. Cory Booker went to Nevada to stump for the former secretary of state.

“With or without Vice President Biden in the race, Hillary Clinton will remain the front-runner,” said New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who hasn’t endorsed any candidate yet. “Her firewall against the Bernie Sanders surge is her strong support in the African-American and Latino communities. To the extent that Joe Biden gets into the race,it will complicate things to some degree … but that said, I think still her support is so wide and so deep that it will be difficult for any candidate to erode it.”

Part of that support, lawmakers said, is that Clinton has long been discussing the issues—penal reform, poverty, education and voting rights—at the forefront the African-American lawmakers’ agenda. Her first major speech was on criminal justice reform and the campaign has sent a handful of top lieutenants to attend the CBC event. Karen Finney, a top Clinton advisor, said having a large presence at the weekend’s events underscores how hard Clinton plans to campaign for support among lawmakers and African-American voters.

“It’s about outreach, reaching out to a broad range of voices and activists to hear from them so the policies that we come up with are building consensus,” Finney said. It’s a smart play for the Clinton campaign, which has seen her standing the polls slipping over thepast month as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has made inroads in New Hampshire and Iowa with votes. Those voters, many who are younger and white, could give any candidate an early primary win but any Democrat seeking the nomination will need a strong showing in theSouth—where black Democrats lean toward Clinton.

And black leaders like Rangel, Reps. John Lewis, Jim Clyburn and others, hold an extreme amount of sway when campaigning for candidates with African-American voters.

It’s a dramatically different position than Clinton found herself in in 2008. Clinton was expected to sweep the endorsements from the establishment wing of the party—including many African-American lawmakers who had known her husband, former President Bill Clinton for decades.

But when then-Sen. Barack Obama entered the race, the caucus was split. Some lawmakers like Rangel and Cleaver stuck with Clinton through the end while others turned their backs on the Clintons to support Obama’s bid to be the first African-American president.

But seven years later, Clinton has a majority of the caucus’ endorsement months before primary voters cast their ballots.

“They will love Biden … [but] the Clintons have invested heavily in the African-American community,” Rangel said. “There is no question about it. It’s their trademark.”

That doesn’t mean a Biden candidacy wouldn’t cause an endorsement run.

“His presence in the race, if he was to make the decision is sure to complicate thing for all the candidates,” Jeffries added.

Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the chairman of the black caucus, predicted that there would be a contentious battle between Clinton and Biden if the latter jumped into the race. Butterfield hasn’t endorsed any candidate.

That’s because, even if most members ultimately support Clinton, African-American lawmakers want to hear from all the candidates about their plans and policies,” Butterfield said.

Sanders has already made a presentation to the CBC and Butterfield said he plans to invite any Democratic contender who wants to meet with the caucus to attend one of their weekly meetings.

“Ms. Clinton and Vice President Biden are both dear friends of most of us in the caucus,and if both of them were to be in the same primary it would be a real conflict,” the North Carolina Democrat said. “And many of us would have to really examine both of these candidates to decide who is the best candidate.”

