arrow Colorized scanning electron micrograph of a cell heavily infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus particles (yellow), isolated from a patient sample. Image captured at the NIAID Integrated Research Facility (IRF) in Fort Detrick, Maryland NIAID

The Gothamist/WNYC newsroom is using statistics to shape our daily coverage of the COVID-19 epidemic. Except where indicated, our statistics come from the New York State Department of Health.

Please send any questions or comments to data@gothamist.com.

Reopening New York City

After a few weeks of tracking, the city met both the state and city criteria for reopening on June 7th, and began Phase 1 of reopening on June 8th. The state is now monitoring seven criteria, and the city is monitoring three criteria, to decide whether it is safe to proceed to the next three stages of reopening- there will be at least a two week period between each phase. If these criteria show sustained movement in the wrong direction, the reopening progress could be paused or reversed. The city entered Phase 2 on June 22nd, and Phase 3 on July 6th, and Phase 4 on July 20th.

Sources: top seven rows from NYS DOH, bottom three rows from NYC DOH. NYC bases its stats on the day a test, hospitalization, or death occurred (not when it was reported), so as new information comes in, they update the numbers for past days. This may cause past days' numbers in the rows above to vary substantially from day-to-day, though the effect decreases the further you go into the past.

To make it easier to spot recent trends, we've made this graph showing some of the major COVID statistics for the city and state. If a second wave begins, you'd see some of these lines begin to rise.

Sources: all data from NYS DOH, except NYC new deaths, which comes from the NYC DOH.

Testing

Testing began in earnest at the beginning of March, and has increased ever since, though it tends to dip on weekends. We investigated the testing rates per county- some have seen a lot more testing than others.

The testing positivity rate tracks the percentage of tests which came back positive each day. After bouncing around early in the epidemic when there was very little testing, it gradually rose to nearly 60% around April 5th, and has fallen since. This is explained by an increase in the number of people tested each day, as well as by the waning of infections as social distancing has curbed spread.

Positive Cases

The majority of the state's cases are in New York City, but the downstate suburbs are also major contributors to the total. Positive cases track only people with a positive COVID test result- because testing has been limited, the number of people who have actually been infected with COVID is much higher- about 10 times the positive cases, according to New York State's antibody screenings- on 5/2/20, they registered 20% of the sampled population was positive in NYC and 12% was positive in New York State. We do not yet know if a positive antibodies test signals that a person has become immune to COVID.

As the curve in new cases begins to flatten, the trend will be easier to see looking only at new cases.

Loading...

When normalized for population, Rockland and Westchester counties are leading the other downstate counties in cases by a large margin. Nassau and Suffolk counties have more cases per capita than New York City.

Queens and Brooklyn have larger populations than the other boroughs, so they tend to have more cases. Note: on 5/11, the Department of Health added "about 3,600 new cases who were diagnosed earlier in the epidemic but had missing address information. Most of these cases were diagnosed in late March and April." This led to a small but noticeable uptick in the boroughs' case lines.

Source: for borough level data we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

At the beginning of the outbreak, all boroughs had similar infection rates, but over time, the Bronx has pulled away from the others.

Source: for borough level data we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

Starting on 4/1, the New York Department of Health started to release positive cases by Zip Code information- the map above shows cases over the last two weeks, to make it easier to see where the virus is still spreading. You can see totals for the entire epidemic, as well as possible demographic associations, at our larger version of the map..

Source: for Zip Code level data we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

We've charted the positive case zip code data in scatterplot. On average, the lower income, older, and more diverse a neighborhood is, the more positive cases it will have. You can examine individual neighborhoods and various demographic factors on our larger chart.

Source: for Zip Code level data we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

Hospitalizations

Over time, serious cases of COVID will put patients in the hospital, and once they're unable to breath on their own, into the Intensive Care Unit. Before the crisis, New York State had approximately 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds. On April 9th, Governor Cuomo said projections indicated the state's current stock of 90K beds appeared to be adequate.

Source: for hospitalization data we use the NYS DOH numbers.

Deaths

Tracking deaths is complicated. New York State's Department of Health only records a "confirmed" COVID death when the patient has had a positive COVID test. This may omit a large number of people who died at home, or at a hospital without a test. New York City has a different process for recording deaths. On April 14th, the NYC Department of Health began reporting "probable deaths"- people who had COVID listed as a cause of death on their death certificates, in addition to deaths of people with confirmed COVID tests. This raised the number of COVID deaths in the city by about 40%.

This still may not include all COVID deaths, as more seemingly unrelated deaths may eventually be classified as caused by COVID. From February 1 through August 21, the CDC estimates there have been about 26,000 excess deaths in the city, compared to historical averages. The graph above uses the NYS DOH number for the NYS total, and the NYC DOH numbers for the NYC totals.

On 6/30, the NYC DOH added 692 deaths to their total, consisting of city residents who had died outside NYC during the first three months of the epidemic. This shows up as small but sharp increase in the confirmed deaths line above.

Sources: for state total deaths we use the NYS DOH fatality panel, for city totals we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

New deaths in New York State peaked on April 9th and have been falling since then, although not as fast as they rose. Note: on May 6th, New York State added "probable" deaths from nursing homes (although not from other sources)- this resulted in an anomalous increase of about 700 deaths. These deaths occurred during a 9 week period beginning on March 1. New York City's daily new death total, as reported by the NYC Department of Health, largely tracks the state's pattern, but after 4/14 includes "probable" deaths, and on 6/30 adds 692 confirmed deaths of city residents who died outside the city in the first three months of the epidemic.

Sources: for state total deaths we use the NYS DOH fatality panel, for city totals we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

When viewed by borough, Queens and Brooklyn have had the most deaths. On 6/30, the city added 692 deaths of city residents that occured outside NYC during the first three months of the epidemic- they appear to have been concentrated in Queens- this increase shows up in two graphs below as well.

Source: for borough level death totals we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

However, once we normalize the death count by population of each borough, the Bronx turns out to have a significantly higher death rate than Queens.

Source: for borough level death totals we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

By dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of positive cases, we can calculate the Case Fatality Rate per borough. Currently Brooklyn and Manhattan have much higher rates than the other three boroughs. Note: the CFR should not be confused with the overall fatality rate of COVID-19, which would include all people infected with the coronavirus- it is estimated at 0.5% to 1%.

Source: for borough level death totals we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

On May 18th, the city released data on deaths by zipcode. Neighborhoods with the most cases tended to have the highest numbers of deaths, but the maps of cases and deaths do not coincide exactly. We've made a larger version of the map where you can also examine case fatality rates by neighborhoods.

Source: for zipcode level death totals we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

We've created a set of scatterplots exploring the correlations between deaths and positive cases, as well as other demographic factors, across the NYC zip codes. You can read more about our findings in a post on Gothamist.

Source: for zipcode level death totals we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

Demographics of COVID Deaths by Age and Underlying Conditions

Each day the New York City Department of Health releases demographic data on COVID-19 deaths. The majority of those who die of COVID are aged 65+ and/or those with pre-existing health conditions, which the DOH defines as: "Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease." Note: these demographics include "confirmed" COVID cases only, and exclude "probable" deaths.

Source: for city demographic information we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

The New York City case fatality rate has been around 10% overall, but older people have died at much higher rates than other groups.

Source: for city demographic information we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

African-American and Latino New Yorkers have been diagnosed, hospitalized, and died at rates much higher than those for Whites and Asians.

Source: for city demographic information we use the numbers from the NYC DOH.

Comparing New York City to Other Hard Hit Areas

New York was the world epicenter of the COVID outbreak in April, outpacing even the most affected cities in Italy and Spain- in the months since the epidemic has waned in the Northeast and intensified in the South and West.

Sources: Ministry of Health Statistics Brazil, NYS, DOH of LA, Maricopa County, Harris County, and Florida.

The New York Times also has a good infographic comparing world cities.

What Will Happen Next?

There are many models that predict the future of the outbreak, but Governor Cuomo has repeatedly praised the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's COVID-19 model. In their 9/11 update, the model predicted a second wave beginning in October, with total deaths of 45,664 by January in New York State.

You can find several other models at the CDC's website.