BRUSSELS – When Theresa May invokes Article 50 later this month, she will set in motion a two-year countdown to Britain’s exit from the European Union. But there will not be ringing bells and fireworks from Europe’s capitals when she finally pulls the trigger. Initially, the prime minister will be met mostly by silence.



BuzzFeed News has spoken to senior EU and European government officials to get a sense of how they intend to handle the Article 50 announcement and how they see the negotiations unfolding from there.

The EU’s remaining 27 members will provide only an initial reaction some 48 hours later. Twenty-four hours after that, it will be the European Commission’s turn. A series of recommendations compiled by the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, are expected to be shared with the 27 capitals.

Then, following preparatory consultations lasting about three weeks, the 27 leaders will meet for a summit in April (on the 6th if she triggers by 15 March) to finalise a common position. After the summit, and with France not electing a new president until 7 May, an additional month is likely to be needed to firm up the position into negotiating directives.

The clock will be ticking from the moment Theresa May sends the formal Article 50 notification this month, but negotiations proper are unlikely to commence before mid-May.

It is understood that the EU, backed by the 27 governments, will angle for the first half of negotiations to focus on the terms of divorce, before any talk of a trade deal can begin. “We need to sort out the past before any talk can be had about the future relationship,” an EU official told BuzzFeed News.

After that, the seven remaining months of this year will concentrate primarily on three matters. First, agreeing a methodology to calculate the UK’s so-called “Brexit bill” (the UK share of pending EU budget commitments). Though various reports put the figure at around €40–60 billion, Brussels wants the scope of initial discussions not to fixate on a number but instead for there to be an understanding on how to calculate the bill, and over what period of time the UK would settle it.

Second, both sides want an agreement on the principles that will guarantee the right of EU citizens to stay in the UK after Brexit, as well as reciprocal rights for Britons living elsewhere in the EU.

And third, both sides are keen for a solution to be found early in Northern Ireland, where questions linger over whether a border with the Republic of Ireland will need to be reintroduced.

If an agreement can be reached around these three areas this year, the talks will be able to then move on to a twin track: figuring out the details of withdrawal in parallel to beginning trade negotiations.

But it will not be easy.