With the new Premier League season kicking off this weekend, the Bookies Advantage article makes it’s return at FantasyBet. In this weekly write-up, we’ll analyse the defensive and attacking odds across online bookmakers in order to provide you with key insight and tips for your fantasy football team selections and transfers, as well as a recommended squad of 15 players for the gameweek in question. Before we get started for Gameweek 1, let’s have a quick recap of the rules that will govern our Bookies Advantage team selection..

Our squad will conform to normal fantasy selection rules (no more than 3 players from each team, £100m budget, 2 goalkeepers, 5 defenders, 5 midfielders, 3 strikers). Our captain will be the attacking player with the highest implied chance of scoring in that particular gameweek. Our vice-captain will be the defensive player with the highest implied chance of keeping a clean sheet in that particular gameweek. In defence, we will double up on the 2 teams with the best defensive prospects for the gameweek, with 1 player each from the 3rd, 4th and 5th best-ranked sides. We will not select any players who are given below a 75% chance of playing. We will play a 3-4-3 formation. When selecting between 2 teams/players that are tied on odds/implied chance, we will select the cheaper player/team in order to free up funds for the rest of the squad.

These tips are applicable both for the FPL-game and FantasyBet’s game that introduces divisions to season long fantasy. You can enter for free and read more about the game here.

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Man City 1.83 55% Chelsea 2.25 44% Crystal Palace 2.25 44% Man Utd 2.3 43% Southampton 2.34 43% Leicester 2.38 42% Middlesbrough 2.5 40% Burnley 2.88 35% Arsenal 3.1 32% Tottenham 3.1 32% Swansea 3.2 31% Stoke 3.4 29% Everton 3.5 29% West Brom 3.75 27% Hull 3.8 26% Liverpool 3.95 25% Watford 4.6 22% Bournemouth 4.95 20% West Ham 5.8 17% Sunderland 12 8%

A home game against Sunderland is Pep Guardiola’s first task as Manchester City manager, seeing the Citizens top the bookies’ defensive rankings with a 55% chance of keeping a clean sheet on Saturday. With the Black Cats expected to set up defensively under new manager David Moyes at the Etihad, especially in the potential absence of the injured Jermain Defoe, City’s defensive assets look a solid pick. Bacary Sagna and Joe Hart, both coming in at £5.5m, offer the safest routes into Guardiola’s backline at present and make our squad.

With Chelsea and Palace tying for 2nd place this week, both with a 44% chance of a clean sheet according to the bookies, we opt to double up on Palace defenders due to their cheaper prices. The Eagles welcome attack-shy West Brom, who only scored 14 goals in 19 away games last term, to Selhurst Park on Saturday, which sees Joel Ward make our starting XI, whilst new signing Steve Mandanda completes our goalkeeping requirements by taking a place on our bench. For the Blues, John Terry still offers a significant goal threat and will be tasked with getting Antonio Conte’s reign off to a bright start against a West Ham side that could be without Dimitri Payet, who has been given an extended rest following his Euro 2016 exertions.

Manchester United and Southampton (both 43%) complete our top 5 for Gameweek 1. The Red Devils travel to Bournemouth, where Jose Mourinho will be looking to continue United’s defensive successes from last season (joint-fewest goals conceded in the league: 35 in 38 games). Antonio Valencia offers an attacking threat from right back, having notched 4 assists in pre-season. The Saints, meanwhile, entertain Watford, and whilst it is difficult to know what to expect from new manager Claude Puel just yet, pre-season results have been encouraging. With Ryan Bertrand missing Gameweek 1 through injury, deputy left back Matt Targett is in line to start and makes our bench.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Bournemouth (20% – home to Man United), West Ham (17% – away to Chelsea) and Sunderland (8% – away to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

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Attacking odds

Player Anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Sergio Aguero 1.6 63% Zlatan Ibrahimovic 2.3 43% Nolito 2.38 42% Diego Costa 2.4 42% Michy Batshuayi 2.6 38% Charlie Austin 2.62 38% Shane Long 2.63 38% Jamie Vardy 2.7 37% Harry Kane 2.7 37% Kevin de Bruyne 2.75 36% Leroy Sane 2.8 36% Connor Wickham 2.88 35% Romelu Lukaku 2.88 35% Eden Hazard 2.88 35% Wayne Rooney 2.9 34% David Silva 3 33% Alexis Sanchez 3 33% Alvaro Negredo 3.1 32% Andre Gray 3.25 31% Riyad Mahrez 3.4 29% Jordan Rhodes 3.4 29% Dusan Tadic 3.4 29% Anthony Martial 3.4 29% Abel Hernandez 3.45 29% Fernando Llorente 3.5 29% Odion Jude Ighalo 3.5 29% Theo Walcott 3.5 29% Raheem Sterling 3.75 27% Henrikh Mkhitaryan 3.75 27% Oscar 3.75 27% Willian 3.75 27% Callum Wilson 3.8 26% Sadio Mane 3.8 26% Divock Origi 3.8 26% Troy Deeney 3.9 26% Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.95 25% Salomon Rondon 4 25% Nathan Redmond 4 25% Dele Alli 4.1 24% Andy Carroll 4.1 24% Christian Eriksen 4.33 23% Bojan 4.33 23% Mame Biram Diouf 4.33 23% Marko Arnautovic 4.33 23% Roberto Firmino 4.33 23% Kevin Mirallas 4.5 22% Erik Lamela 4.5 22% Philippe Coutinho 4.5 22% Gaston Ramirez 4.75 21% Andros Townsend 4.8 21% Ross Barkley 4.8 21% Gerard Deulofeu 5 20% Dimitri Payet 5 20% Viktor Fischer 5.1 20% Cesc Fabregas 5.3 19% Xherdan Shaqiri 5.5 18% George Boyd 6 17% Jermain Defoe 6 17% Max Gradel 6.1 16% Robert Snodgrass 6.5 15% Sofiane Feghouli 6.5 15% Matt Phillips 7.5 13% Jordon Ibe 8.5 12% Wahbi Khazri 9 11% Etienne Capoue 14 7%

It’s no surprise to see Sergio Aguero top the bookies’ attacking rankings for the opening weekend of the campaign, with a 63% chance of scoring against Sunderland. Having bagged 2 goals in 3 pre-season games, and having scored twice against the Black Cats in 2 games last term, it is with confidence that we apply our captain’s armband to the Argentine striker.

Completing our front 3 for this gameweek are Charlie Austin (38%) and Connor Wickham (35%). Austin will be looking to kickstart his Southampton career after joining last January but seeing his impact limited by injuries. The former QPR man can definitely cut it in the Premier League, having netted 18 goals for the R’s during the 14/15 campaign, and will be handed the perfect opportunity to start the season with a bang at home against Watford. Wickham, meanwhile, will be looking to continue his good pre-season form (3 goals) for Crystal Palace when they welcome West Brom to Selhurst Park on Saturday.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Diego Costa, Michy Batshuayi, Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy all represent quality options for the gameweek in the striking department, but are overlooked for our XV due to their high prices putting them out of our budget. Shane Long is not considered as we are unwilling to double up on Southampton forwards.

In midfield, Eden Hazard (35%) will look to profit against a West Ham side that will likely be playing with Michail Antonio at right back. Hazard has the quality to easily get the better of the out-of-position West Ham winger, whilst he also finished last season on a high, bagging 4 goals in his final 5 league games for the Blues.

Anthony Martial and Dusan Tadic (both 34%) join the effervescent Belgian in our starting XI. Martial, re-classified as a midfielder in FPL this year, will be aiming to build on an impressive debut season where he chalked up 11 goals and 6 assists, and with added creativity, class and power (Mkhitaryan, Ibrahimovic, Pogba) in the United side, as well as Jose Mourinho at the helm, the Frenchman looks primed to profit. A season opener away to Bournemouth provides the perfect platform for a good start. With penalty and set-piece duties in his locker, as well as a more attacking role at the tip of the midfield diamond under new boss Claude Puel, Serbian international Tadic can build on an impressive 15/16 campaign where he carded 8 goals and 13 assists. As previously mentioned, the Saints begin their season with a kind fixture as they host Watford.

Another player to be reclassified as a midfielder (previously a forward) in FPL this term, boosting his point-scoring potential, is Stoke City’s Spanish wizard Bojan (23%). Travelling to The Riverside, where Middlesbrough don’t concede many, isn’t the easiest of tasks, but the Potters will be looking to take the Premier League newboys by surprise. On penalties and playing up front or in the number ten role, Bojan should be at the heart of anything positive for Mark Hughes’ side. Viktor Fischer (20%) completes our squad and takes a place on our bench for Gameweek 1.

Other viable options in the middle of the park include Manchester City quartet Nolito, Kevin de Bruyne, Leroy Sane and David Silva, Arsenal’s Chilean livewire Alexis Sanchez, last season’s player of the year and top FPL scorer Riyad Mahrez, Tottenham trio Dele Alli, Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela, and potential out-of-position prospect Roberto Firmino, but they all miss out on our recommended XV due to budget and/or squad selection restrictions.

The Gameweek Squad

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter. He will be back with Bookie’s Advantage articles this season!