#Disclaimer :: Not an expert. Not on Ground. Just my gyaan — TIFWIW.

Final Tally in Gujarat election is 99 [BJP] vs 80 [INC]. Far lower than what I had hoped for. I had expected an unrealistic 130+. Hindsight is always 20/20.

First things first: this victory is not marginal. This is not pyrrhic. And despite what P. Chidambaram says, this is not a winner limping across the finish line. A 18 seat margin win in 180 seat assembly is a 10% difference. Case in point too, is the victory and government formation in Goa. That was limping to victory. This isn’t. In fact, in many places where INC took the seat, the NOTA had more votes than the difference between INC and BJP. In some seats, the differences were less than 500 votes. INC honchos parroting this “limping to victory” theory would do well to compare UPA seat count in 2004 with that of NDA. Now, that is limping to victory.

The more critical thing is how BJP lost across the Saurashtra rural belt. It is almost a complete rout. People on the ground have two theories to offer: 1) there was a administrative breakdown during the agrarian crisis and the state government didn’t do enough to alleviate the pains, 2) there was Patidar agitation and the government didn’t do enough to assuage their concerns / mollify their egos. Point (2) also takes a very different projection. People say there was not enough Hindutva, and hence people went with the next best identity group — caste. Going with the disclaimer above, I believe the truth lies somewhere in between. There have been widespread rumors about administrative lapses since NM moved to centre. This theory also gains some favor when we consider that the CMs were changed after 2014. As for the Hindutva angle, I am not able to put a confident weightage to it.

After all is done and dusted, here are some numbers that stand out from my perspective.

Vote share: a loser’s argument, but an argument nonetheless. In concentrated areas [urban / educated] BJP has had an immense advantage over INC. Illiterate people vote INC. Rural people [who still face the worst of socialism] vote INC. BJP is inching towards a 50% vote share. This is no mean feat. However, they should work to inch past the 50% mark. It was also clear that youngsters have forgotten what it is to live under the congress. Maybe the elders should start compiling historic articles about INC rule and circulate it on WhatsApp. BJP’s own Social Media cell is conspicuously absent on all counts here.

Minority votes: Initial numbers suggest that only 11% of Muslims voted BJP. If this turns out to be true, then these numbers are far lower than what Muslims gave to BJP in Bihar [~25%]. While the sample size [2 states] is limited, one can derive a set of lessons: a) Muslims [and by extension Minorities] don’t vote BJP. b) The more prosperous the minorities are, the more likely they are to veto BJP — even when the alternative is their own long term destruction [INC didn’t do anyone any favors, except for maybe the Church]. In short, in India — Minorities seem to put their religion ahead of the common good. There is no use in fuming or fretting over this fact. It just is.

Another interesting factoid about minority vote is about the way BJP dealt with Jammu and Kashmir. From on ground office bearers and supporters, it was clear that BJP focused on Kashmir more than it did on Jammu and Ladakh. Kashmir gave it zero seats. The refrain from on ground supporters and well wishers was that “if BJP had focused more on Jammu and Ladakh, the would have formed the government without any coalition”. This ghost is coming back to haunt the BJP. In their unrelenting wish to be seen as acceptable to all, they are alienating their core voters — the Hindus who are sick and tired of appeasement masquerading as secularism. The most recent example of such blatant pandering is the way Amruta Fadnavis — wife of Maharashtra CM cozied up to evangelists in the USA.

Just a word of caution to BJP: yes, be fair to all — but don’t for a moment think that the minorities will vote you to power. They want you gone. You are a thorn in their civilizational flesh. Even if you become a rank appeaser, why would they pick you, an imposter, over the original : INC? What exactly can you offer them that INC can’t?

It is clear that BJP must seriously introspect about its voter base. The minority voting numbers don’t lie. Would it have been different if Hindutva had been made a poll issue in Gujarat? We can argue both ways. On one hand, UP tells us that it would have been a humungous leg up. On the other, UP and Gujarat are not even comparable. UP just suffered decade+ of secularism and had fresh memories of the same. Gujarat last suffered secularism before 22 years. Again, the answer depends on whom you ask, and is entirely speculative. However, it is clear that rapid and sensible administrative responses to agrarian crisis might have helped arrest the slide, if not reverse it in rural Saurashtra [again, it may be contested].

More important in my view, is the fragility of the much feted United Spectrum of Hindu Votes. Hindus have once again shown that they lack institutional memory. More worrying is the fact that Hindus don’t care much about creating institutional memory. In 22 years of breathing space with BJP rule, Hindus have not created a sustained ecosystem that will keep the memory of the dark days alive. While it is fine and dandy to question the BJP and the RSS for doing nothing, it is time to ask why no one else had created an alternative ecosystem to push the core Hindu narrative. If Hindus of a wealthy state haven’t created a ecosystem in 20 years to further their civilizational cause, then the problem lies with the Hindu samaj. Blaming a political party or an organization [which they funded and patronized] for their tamas is a loser’s gambit.

It is also telling how the entire UHSV broke down in the face of a simple “reservation” ploy supported by the INC. None of those affluent Patidars even stopped to ponder on the constitutional viability of their demand [it was not viable]. If this is the case with Patidars, one can imagine the fragmentation that will happen in Maharashtra [or as others pointed out, in Rajasthan]. While again, one can blame the BJP for not doing enough for Hindu causes [concede], it is the fragility of Hindu community that should worry RW thinkers. It means that BJP has to keep on pushing the envelope of what is socially acceptable, in order to keep its core on its side. It would mean that BJP will lose out on the other “moderate” Hindu votes. Whether the core is large enough [~30% of India’s population] and evenly distributed enough to give BJP electoral victories, is a question that we can’t answer right away. It is an “all-in” gambit, and what stares at us if we lose, is definitely scary.

To end the long rant, I want to touch upon an issue that has been bothering me for a while now. Hindus don’t think beyond the tip of their nose: and this is true of both the core Hindutva types and the moderate “modern Hindu” types.

The former underestimate the importance of being in power and are willing to sacrifice power today for some gains later on. They don’t understand that none of their plans will even be possible if they don’t hang on to power by hook or crook. They need to push the envelope, while hanging on to power. Dharmasya moolam Artha; Arthasya moolam Rajya. Core needs to concede that being perpetually in power is a non-negotiable step in their quest for civilizational survival. Having wrong kind of people in power is temporarily acceptable as far as your might put them there. That is a rectifiable mistake. Having the wrong group in power [supported by your civilizational enemies] is not rectifiable. Just because your demands today aren’t met, doesn’t mean you flip the coin. That is just plain stupid.

As for the latter, the kindest one can say, is that they are clueless. Period. The Core has two responsibilities — pull the civilizational cart with all the clueless people on it by its own, or try and convert as many of those civilizational free loaders to become cart pullers. Neither of this task can be achieved in a hurry. There is a proverb in Tamizh: எறும்பூற கல் தேயும் — even the rock will be eroded if an ant walks on it for sufficient time. That is how the clueless Hindus must be treated; partly with firm ideology, and partly with kids’ gloves. Without winning them over, this war won’t be won.

All said and done, Gujarat elections rings warning bells for the whole lot of us. It will be interesting to see how things play out in 2018 / 2019. Fingers crossed — prayers on lips.

LM.