Reliever Andrew Miller cost a lot, but he was a worthy trade target for the Indians. (John Kuntz, cleveland.com)

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EXPLAINING 3RD & SHORT

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CLEVELAND, Ohio -- There’s a lot of baseball to cover, so I’ll just say this about the Browns.

Odell Beckham Jr. is lighting up camp so far, and the New York Giants are in disarray, with one receiver (former Brown Corey Coleman) tearing his ACL, another (Sterling Shepard) breaking his thumb, and another (Golden Tate) facing a four-game suspension to start the season.

Karma edge to OBJ. Let’s continue that karma into 3rd & Short.

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Odell Beckham Jr. has thus far been winning the karma camp battle with his former team. (Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com)

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EVALUATING A DECADE OF INDIANS TRADES

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In the offseason of 2008, the Indians dealt a future ace for a middling middle infielder. Trading Single A pitcher Chris Archer to the Chicago Cubs as part of a package for Mark DeRosa bombed. DeRosa didn’t last a full season in Cleveland. Archer was later traded to Tampa Bay, and in eight major-league seasons, he has made 205 starts with an ERA of 3.85.

So the Indians don’t always get it right. That Archer trade was part of a whirlwind that continued through the trade deadline in 2009, as the Indians executed 12 trades in eight months.

As the trade deadline approaches Wednesday, we’re going to evaluate the last decade of Indians deals. We’re only dealing with trades that involved players on both sides (no purchasing contracts). So the Indians are off the hook here for sending Gio Urshela to Toronto for cash in 2018, and for letting Milwaukee claim Jesus Aguilar off waivers in February of 2017. (Not great moves, though Aguilar has fallen off after a monster 2018.) We’re ignoring deals that truly had no consequence (with apologies to the Preston Guilmet for Torsten Boss trade of 2014).

My theory going into this was that the Indians have won far more trades than they’ve lost in the past decade. Therefore, Chris Antonetti and the decision makers deserve your trust approaching this deadline. But now I’m about one-third of the way through tracking the trades as I write this, and I’m not so sure about that anymore.

So let’s see, starting with the mid-season deals of 2009.

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Former Indians minor leaguer Chris Archer was a two-time All-Star while pitching his first six major league seasons for Tampa Bay. (Joseph Garnett Jr., Getty Image)

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2009

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July 23: Trade P Rafael Betancourt to Colorado. Get P Connor Graham. The Indians dumped their best reliever in a dead year to save about half a million bucks. They knew Graham wasn't much, and he never got above Double A. Betancourt was an effective reliever for another three seasons, but at a price of about $4 million year, which the Indians would have never paid. Verdict: EVEN

July 27: Trade 1B Ryan Garko to San Francisco. Get P Scott Barnes. Some of these deals are hilarious in hindsight. Here's the AP story lead from San Francisco after this deal: "The San Francisco Giants got the offensive first baseman they've been seeking. The Cleveland Indians received a pitcher they consider a future big league starter." Couldn't have been more wrong. Garko went 30 for 148 (.203) for the rest of his career. Barnes pitched 27 ⅔ major league innings. Verdict: EVEN (or perhaps, irrelevant)

July 27: Get RP Chris Perez from St. Louis. Trade IF Mark DeRosa. This was a quick admission of failure on the DeRosa deal, and the Indians would have been better off keeping Archer. But Perez served as thecloser for four years and made two All-Star teams, while DeRosa never made much of a difference in the majors again. Verdict: WIN

July 29: Trade SP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to Philadelphia. Get SP Carlos Carrasco, IF Jason Donald, C Lou Marson and P Jason Knapp. All four players the Indians received were major prospects. Only Carrasco panned out. Lee was a force in his prime, but Carrasco developed into one as well. The totals? Lee after Cleveland: 1,039 ⅔ innings, 2.99 ERA. Carrasco with Cleveland: 1,159 ⅓ innings, 3.78 ERA. Oh, and the Indians and their fans love Carrasco. Verdict: WIN (even on production, but a victory on intangibles)

July 31: Trade C/1B Victor Martinez to Boston. Get P Justin Masterson, P Nick Hagadone, P Bryan Price. Fans revolted as the Indians dumped big salaries at the deadline, including this fan favorite in his prime. Martinez put up another productive decade, including a second-place finish in the 2014 AL MVP race. He also made $125 million over the next nine seasons, which the Indians wouldn't have paid. So … Hagadone and Price were big arms that never materialized, despite the former's four unforgettable years working middle innings. Masterson provided 154 starts of average to fairly high-end value over parts of six seasons at a manageable pre-free agency price. Factoring in the money, and considering how angry people were at the time? Verdict: LOSE (but closer to even than you would have expected)

Aug. 7: Trade P Carl Pavano to Minnesota. Get P Yohan Pino. Pavano, signed in the offseason, had some value remaining. He threw more than 220 innings for the Twins in each of the next two seasons, with a total ERA around 4.00. The Indians were trying to open rotation spots for younger guys, so no huge loss, but Pino never contributed. Verdict: LOSE

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It wasn't easy for the Indians to say goodbye to Victor Martinez in 2009. (Plain Dealer file)

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2010

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June 26: Trade 1B Russell Branyan to Seattle. Get OF Ezequiel Carrera, IF Juan Diaz. The idea was to clear the path for Matt LaPorta. Truly. Verdict: EVEN (for lack of a better description)

July 28: Trade IF Jhonny Peralta to Detroit. Get P Giovanni Soto. The Indians knew they weren't bringing Peralta back in 2011, and they wanted to open up a lineup spot. GM Mark Shapiro called Soto a "projectable arm" at the time. He projected to 3 ⅓ major-league innings with the Indians in 2015. Verdict: EVEN

July 30: Trade OF Austin Kearns to the Yankees. Get P Zach McAllister. Kearns was no loss, but he signed back with the Indians in the offseason anyway. McAllister, in Triple A then, gave the Indians an ERA of 3.99 over 588 ⅓ innings in eight seasons. Verdict: WIN

July 31: Trade RP Kerry Wood to the Yankees. Get P Andrew Shive and IF Matt Cusick. A straight salary dump. Paul Hoynes called the two minor leaguers "non-prospects" at the time, and he was right. Verdict: EVEN

July 31: Get SP Corey Kluber. Trade SP Jake Westbrook. In a three-team deal, Kluber came from San Diego and Westbrook went to St. Louis. Kluber was a Double A strikeout artist and it was clear the Indians were onto something. In our cleveland.com poll at the time, 84 percent of readers liked the deal. It's hard for 84 percent of Cleveland fans to like any trade. Since then, Kluber has a 3.41 ERA in 1,341 ⅔ innings. Westbrook had a 4.27 ERA in 549 ⅔ innings in four seasons. Verdict: BIG WIN

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Getting Corey Kluber was the best thing the Indians did in 2010. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2011

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July 28: Get OF Kosuke Fukudome from the Cubs. Trade OF Abner Abreu and P Carlton Smith. Neither Abreu nor Smith reached the majors, and the Cubs paid most of Fukudome's salary. But after trying to get Carlos Beltran and settling for Fukudome to help an injured outfield, the Indians fell out of the race. Two games back when Fukudome arrived, they finished 15 games out as the 34 year old provided an OPS of .671 (below his career numbers) in 59 games. Verdict: LOSE (not because of prospects, but because the deal didn't help a team in contention)

July 30: Trade SS Orlando Cabrera to San Francisco. Get OF Thomas Neal. Cabrera went 28 for 126 in San Francisco and retired. Neal went 7-for-38 in his major-league career. This may have seemed important at the time. It wasn't. Verdict: EVEN

July 30: Get P Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado. Trade P Drew Pomeranz, P Alex White, OF Matt McBride and P Joe Gardner. Gardner never reached the majors, and McBride and White barely did. But both White and Pomeranz were former No. 1 picks, so this was another deal to get the Indians over the top, and they didn't get there. A 19-game winner the year before the Indians got him, Jimenez never pitched that well again. He was 26-30 with a 4.45 ERA over 74 starts in three seasons with the Indians. Pomeranz has bounced through five teams in nine years in a solid career, with a career ERA of 4.10. Between 2014-17, he certainly would have helped the Indians. But dealing him didn't come back to bite them in the way you may have expected. So, barely, the Indians get the benefit of the doubt here, because the instinct to trade for Jimenez was right. Verdict: EVEN

Oct. 31: Get P Derek Lowe from Atlanta. Trade P Chris Jones. Jones never reached the majors. Lowe didn't work out. The Indians paid $5 million of his $15 million salary for a 5.52 ERA in 21 starts in 2012 before he was released in August. Verdict: LOSE (not a big loss with a guy approaching 40, but Lowe was out of gas)

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The Indians thought they were making a big move for Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2012

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Jan. 20: Get P Kevin Slowey from Colorado. Trade P Zach Putman. Slowey never pitched for the Indians. Putnam could have developed into a decent bullpen arm here, but instead had a 2.71 ERA in 130 games for the White Sox over four years. Verdict: LOSE

July 31: Get OF Lars Anderson from Boston. Trade P Steven Wright. Anderson, as you'll see, became a piece in a bigger deal months later. Wright, who developed a knuckleball late in his time as an Indians minor leaguer, hasn't done much with the Red Sox (though he was still pitching this season) save for one All-Star season in 2016. That's one more All-Star team than Anderson made. Verdict: LOSE

Nov. 3: Get C Yan Gomes, IF Mike Aviles from Toronto. Trade P Esmil Rogers. Rogers was a below-average major league pitcher for three more years. Gomes developed into the Indians starting catcher, and then his own trade piece, and Aviles provided 995 at-bats over three years. Verdict: WIN

Dec. 11: Get P Trevor Bauer, P Bryan Shaw, P Matt Albers and OF Drew Stubbs. Give up OF Shin-Soo Choo, OF Lars Anderson, P Tony Sipp and IF Jason Donald. In a three-team deal with Cincinnati and Arizona, the Indians won the day. Arizona also got IF Didi Gregorius from the Reds, and Choo had one solid year with the Reds and continues to have productive but overpriced years in Texas. Sipp continues to pitch, with two good years and five average years as a reliever since leaving Cleveland. Anderson and Donald did nothing. Meanwhile, Shaw was a five-year bullpen workhorse, while Bauer has 169 starts as a crucial piece of the rotation. Verdict: BIG WIN

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The trade for Trevor Bauer sure worked, didn't it? (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2013

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July 30: Get RP Marc Rzepczynski from St. Louis. Trade IF Juan Herrera. Rzepczynski turned into a high-leverage lefty in the pen and a vital option for Terry Francona. Herrera never made the majors. Verdict: WIN

Aug. 29: Get OF Jason Kubel from Minnesota. Give up pitcher Matt Langwell. Added to help a slumping offense, Kubel did nothing -- three hits, five walks in 23 plate appearances. But Langwell never did anything either. Verdict: EVEN

Dec. 18: Trade OF Drew Stubbs to Colorado. Get P Josh Outman. I almost skipped this, but Stubbs did play for five teams over four seasons after leaving Cleveland, hitting 23 home runs. Outman pitched 24 ⅔ innings in Cleveland. And … I should have skipped it. Verdict: EVEN

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Drew Stubbs was traded by the Indians to Colorado. And ... there wasn't much else to say. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2014

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July 31: Trade SS Asdrubal Cabrera to Washington. Get IF Zach Walters. Francisco Lindor was coming the next season, so Cabrera had to go. But the two-time All-Star has continued to contribute to five teams since the deal, and the Indians ate money on his contract. Walters hit .176 in 170 big-league at-bats. Verdict: LOSE

Aug. 7: Trade RP Vinnie Pestano. Get P Mike Clevinger. This one is familiar, one of those deals that contributes to the genius reputation of the front office when it comes to little trades. Clevinger, as a 23 year old, had a 4.31 ERA in Single A at the time. Pestano's career with the Angels lasted 21 ⅓ innings. Clevinger has a 3.39 ERA in 417 innings in Cleveland. Verdict. BIG WIN

Dec. 8: Get OF Brandon Moss from Oakland. Trade IF Joey Weddle. Moss was a non-factor as a platoon outfielder in 2015, with an OPS of .695. Wendle went on to finish fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year race for Tampa Bay last year. Better than Moss. Verdict: LOSE

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This guy, Vinnie Pestano, brought the Indians Mike Clevinger. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2015

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July 28: Trade OF David Murphy to Anaheim. Get SS Eric Stamets. Murphy was dumped out of an Indians outfield platoon and went 41-for-155 for the rest of his career. The Indians, looking ahead, knew they might need someone to hit .049 starting in place of an injured Francisco Lindor for a month in 2019, and decided Stamets, then at Double A, was their guy. Verdict: EVEN

July 30: Trade OF Brandon Moss. Get P Rob Kaminsky. Ready for the Indians to lose two Brandon Moss deals? He actually produced in St. Louis, hitting 50 homers the next two years. Kaminsky never reached the majors. Verdict: LOSE

Aug: 7: Get IF Chris Johnson from Atlanta. Trade OF Michael Bourn and OF Nick Swisher. This was the Indians dumping salary from two high-priced outfielders who hadn't helped in years. The Indians cut Johnson months later. Just an attempted money-saver on both sides. Verdict. EVEN

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In the end, the Indians were just trying to clear the salaries of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2016

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July 31: Get RP Andrew Miller from the Yankees. Trade OF Clint Frazier, P Justus Sheffield, P Ben Heller and P J.P. Feyereisen. Miller helped launch the Indians toward their playoff run as a dominating reliever deployed when it mattered most. Only Sheffield and Frazier have helped the Yankees, Sheffield as the main trade piece that brought starting pitcher James Paxton from Seattle, and Frazier as an outfield bat with a .787 OPS still waiting to fulfill his potential. The Indians gave up a lot. But they'd do it again. The Yankees got a solid return, but Miller provided a 2.22 ERA in 125 ⅔ vital innings with the Indians. Verdict: WIN

Aug. 1: Get OF Brandon Guyer from Tampa Bay. Trade OF Nathan Lukes and P Jhonleider Salinas. Guyer played in 211 games with the Indians over three years. The other two are too far away from the majors to tell. Verdict: EVEN (but close to a win)

Aug 31: Get OF Coco Crisp from Oakland. Trade P Colt Hynes. Hynes reached the majors for 20 innings. In his last big-league season, Crisp's home run against the Red Sox helped win a game in the playoffs. Worth it. Verdict: WIN

Dec. 20: Get RP Nick Goody from the Yankees. Deal P Yoiber Marquina. Goody, in his third season with the Indians, has played a prominent role in 2019, his ERA at 1.69. Marquina is somewhere in the low minors. Verdict: WIN

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Rounding third after this Game 3 homer in the ALDS, Coco Crisp proved his worth in Cleveland. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2017

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July 31: Get RP Joe Smith from Toronto. Trade P Thomas Pannone and IF Samad Taylor. Smith proved a reliable bullpen arm for a playoff team. Taylor is treading water in the low minors and Pannone has a 6.39 ERA in 43 ⅔ innings in Toronto this season. Verdict: EVEN

Aug. 9: Get OF Jay Bruce from the Mets. Trade P Ryder Ryan. The deal here was absorbing about $5 million in Bruce's salary. He helped out during the Indians' 22-game winning streak, but they lost in the first round of the playoffs. Worth a shot. Ryan has a 4.30 ERA in Double A this season. Verdict: WIN

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Jay Bruce his seven regular-season home runs with the Indians in 43 games, and two postseason home runs, including this one. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer)

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2018

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July 19: Get RP Brad Hand and RP Adam Cimber from San Diego. Trade C Francisco Mejia. The Indians could probably get more than Mejia right now if they dealt Hand. This rebuilt the bullpen on the fly, while Mejia has a .676 OPS in 140 big-league plate appearances. Mejia could still make the Indians regret this, but you kind of knew in the moment that they probably wouldn't. So far, that's been right. Verdict: WIN

July 31: Get OF Leonys Martin and P Kyle Dowdy from Detroit. Trade SS Will Castro. Castro has emerged as a real prospect and could be looking at a September callup with a shot to win the job next year. Dowdy was taken from the Indians in the Rule 5 draft, and Martin's serious illness last season derailed his potential contributions as a deadline acquisition. But back this year, he was a major part of the Indians' lineup problems. Releasing him in June helped fix the outfield. Bad luck here, but also a major whiff, especially as Castro proves himself in Triple A. Verdict: LOSE

July 31: Get OF Oscar Mercado from St. Louis. Trade OF Conner Capel, OF Jhon Torres. The Indians gave up some low minor leaguers. Check back in four years. For now, what were you doing, St. Louis? Mercado is helping the Indians win now. Verdict: WIN

Aug: 31: Get 3B Josh Donaldson from Toronto. Trade P Julian Merryweather. This one could get dicey. Three years removed from his MVP season, Donaldson was hurt for most of 2018 and was a shell of himself. He gave the Indians a .920 OPS in 60 plate appearances but made little impact. Merryweather had Tommy John surgery before he was traded and has been rehabbing all year. He just was shut down with fatigue. But for what the Indians got from Donaldson, he won't have to be great a Blue Jay for the Indians to lose this one. Verdict: EVEN (for now)

Nov. 4: Get OF Jordan Luplow, IF Max Moroff from Pittsburgh. Trade P Dante Mendoza, P Tahnaj Thomas, IF Eric Gonzalez. Mendoza has a 6.53 ERA in Single A, Thomas has a 5.12 ERA in Single A, and Gonzalez is a backup major league infielder. Luplow is a 25-year-old contributor with an OPS of .822. So … Verdict: WIN

Nov. 30: Trade C Yan Gomes to Washington. Get IF Daniel Johnson, P Jefry Rodriguez. Dealing Gomes opened the door for Roberto Perez to have a breakout season. Gomes has an OPS of .617 with four homers. Perez has an OPS of .789 with 16 homers. Plus, Johnson is one of the Indians' top prospects and Rodriguez filled in with eight decent starts this season when the rotation needed help. Verdict: WIN

Dec 13: Trade DH Edwin Encarnacion to Seattle. Trade 3B Yandy Diaz and P Cole Sulser to Tampa Bay. Get 1B Carlos Santana from Seattle and OF Jake Bauers from Tampa. There was a time earlier this season when this trade drew some gripes, including here. But here are the combined numbers for Diaz and Encarnacion: .832 OPS, 667 AB, 44 HR. Here are the combined numbers for Santana and Bauers: .822 OPS, 695 AB, 32 HR. The Indians got younger, and saved a little money this season. You could almost give them the edge, but at the very least, it's hard for anyone to complain anymore. Verdict: EVEN

Dec. 15: Trade 1B Yonder Alonso to the White Sox. Get OF Alex Call. Alonso was barely average in his one year with the Indians, and ridding his salary to get more production at first base this season worked. Having by far the worst season of his career, he was released by Chicago three weeks ago. Call hasn't done much in Double A, but he was named the Eastern League Player of the Week a month ago. Getting off Alonso was the key. Verdict: WIN

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Trading for Oscar Mercado? Smart. (John Kuntz, cleveland.com)

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2019

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Feb. 4: Get RP Nick Wittgren from Miami. Trade RP Jordan Milbrath. The Indians went for experience here, and Milbrath has a 1.32 ERA at Double A and 5.68 ERA at Triple A this season. And he's 27. Wittgren, 28, has an ERA of 3.00 for the Indians and could factor into this bullpen for quite some time. Another little trade paying off. Verdict: WIN

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Roberto Perez (right) and the Indians have liked the Nick Wittgren trade. What other deals are coming in 2019? (Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com)

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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED FROM THE INDIANS RECENT TRADE HISTORY

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3. The little trades work best

So … that was a lot. But the small moves stand out. Getting Clevinger, Mercado, Luplow and Wittgren are great examples. The Indians often do their most damage when no one seems to be paying attention.

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2. There are no huge losses

Of the 43 trades detailed here, only three rose to the level of a big win or a big loss, and all of them were wins: Trading for Kluber; for Bauer and Shaw; and for Clevinger.

Even the deals that seemed rough at the time, like losing Lee, brought a reward like Carrasco. Or the fact that giving up Pomeranz wasn’t crushing, even though Jimenez wasn’t great. No trade that the Indians have made in the last decade proved to be devastating for the franchise.

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1. Trust them

Here’s the final total of the 43 deals, by my evaluations of the trades I considered worth evaluating.

Win: 18 (with three big wins)

Lose: 10

Even: 15

Certainly, you could quibble with some of my analysis. But especially look at the trades since 2016: 10 wins, 1 loss, 4 even. Only the Leonys Martin truly didn’t work in my mind.

So consider that as the Indians, as the hottest team in baseball, ponder how to improve for this season and the future. Whatever they do, there’s reason to believe they’ll get it right.

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Starting with moves like the trade that brought Carlos Carrasco 10 years ago, the Indians have won more trades than they've lost. (Scott Shaw, The Plain Dealer)

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