by Aaron Schatz

The Denver Broncos remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week, despite their sort of-close call against the New York Jets on Sunday. Right below Denver is a surprising No. 2, Baltimore. And to some people, the team at No. 3 is even more surprising, because it is still Seattle despite the loss to the Cowboys. Yet Dallas, the team now being lauded as the best in the NFC by most NFL observers, is still only tenth in our DVOA ratings.What gives?

The issue is certainly not this Sunday's win. The DVOA system loved this weekend's performance, giving Dallas a single-game DVOA of 57.2%. The final score closer than the performances of the two teams because the Cowboys had special teams gaffes and didn't recover any of the game's three fumbles. The Cowboys also have nice, high ratings for their Week 2 win over Tennessee and their Week 4 victory over New Orleans. However, their very close Week 3 and Week 5 wins (over St. Louis and Houston) are around 0.0%. Put that together with their very bad Week 1 loss to the 49ers, and the Cowboys just don't come out looking like dominant team overall no matter how good they were in Seattle this week.

Another way that the Seattle win stands out: schedule strength. Based on DVOA, this is the only tough opponent the Cowboys have faced all season. We all may still think of the Saints as the team that should win the NFC South if they can just get the defense back to average... but that's not the team they've really been so far this year. They rank No. 25 in DVOA, with other Dallas opponents ranking No. 24 (Houston), No. 26 (Tennessee), and No. 27 (St. Louis). San Francisco right now is only No. 15.

That phenomenally improved Dallas defense? It's phenomenally improved, all right, but not to the level of "good." The Cowboys' single-game defensive DVOA of -50.3% against the Seahawks is one of the best games by any defense this year -- but the Cowboys defense hasn't come close to that in any other game. The Cowboys currently have a defensive DVOA of 0.1%, pretty much right at league average. . The running game has been fabulous, but the passing game has been good, not great -- No. 11 in offensive DVOA -- and you all know that passing matters more than rushing in the modern NFL. Special teams have also been poor except for kicker Dan Bailey.

We still have Dallas as a very probable playoff team, of course. It's tough to blow a 5-1 record, although it is easier to screw up when one of your division rivals is also 5-1. Although the Eagles are slightly higher than the Cowboys in DAVE, the Cowboys have an easier remaining schedule, so we have the Cowboys making the playoffs in 78.3 percent of simulations and the Eagles in 72.4 percent of simulations.

While Dallas is lower than many people would expect, Baltimore is higher than many people would expect. The Ravens are one of just two teams currently in the top ten for all three phases of the game. (Seattle is the other.) Baltimore has had three huge, dominating wins. Their opening loss to Cincinnati was very close (23-16, -10.9% DVOA). And their Week 5 loss to Indianapolis is one of those games where both teams end up with very high DVOA ratings. In fact, Baltimore has a higher rating than Indianapolis for that game. The Colts had more yards per play (5.4 to 5.0) but also more turnovers (four, if you include a fumble they recovered themselves, to just two for Baltimore). The big problem for the Ravens was a horrific 1-for-9 record on third downs in that game, but no team is likely to be that bad on third downs in the long run, so the DVOA system says Baltimore's good play on defense and special teams in Week 5 outweighed its struggles on offense.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the Ravens from here. The Football Outsiders "guts and stomps" theory says that those blowout wins over Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh really tell us something about how good this team is right now. On the other hand, as schedule strength gets more important in our ratings, the fact that the NFC South has been far weaker than expected this season will become a bigger and bigger deal. Right now, we have three NFC South teams at No. 22 or lower. The Falcons are still up at No. 12, but that's almost entirely because of their huge win over Tampa Bay; they've fallen from No. 2 to No. 12 in three weeks. A new tool in our playoff odds simulations allows me to look at how often a division can't produce a champion with a winning record, and right now no NFC South team goes better than 8-8 (or for Carolina, 8-7-1) in 44 percent of simulations. The NFC South champion has a losing record in 11.8 percent of simulations.

There are a few other issues I would love to talk about in this week's commentary. Why doesn't anyone notice that Seattle has played the league's toughest schedule so far? Where is this Cleveland offensive explosion coming from? Just how much better is the Detroit defense than the rest of the league right now, and just how much worse have their kickers been? However, I want to get all of this week's tables online for reader enjoyment before I dash off to the airport to catch my flight home from beautiful St. Louis. So those topics will have to wait for next week's commentary, or perhaps for special posts later this week. The same goes for my promised play-by-play breakdown of Robert Quinn against Joe Staley.

Thanks again to Kevin Demoff and the Rams for bringing me in for last night's game. It always expands my knowledge to attend games in person, especially somewhere new. You see more on the field, at least when it comes to defensive secondary coverage. You learn from the other reporters. (Everyone should get to watch a game next to Mike Sando.) And I love seeing the fans and getting the feel for the football culture of a city by hanging around outside a new stadium before the game. Unfortunately, the football culture of St. Louis... Sorry, it needs a little work, guys. If the Rams do end up staying in town, you can start by painting the seats in the dome blue and gold, for crying out loud. Red seats only make sense for that other sport.

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Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 6 are:

CB Darrelle Revis, NE (24-HOUR HERO) : Limited Bills No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins to just 2 receptions for 27 yards.

: Limited Bills No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins to just 2 receptions for 27 yards. DT Sen'Derrick Marks, JAC : 3 run tackles for a combined minus-1 yard, plus a pass defensed.

: 3 run tackles for a combined minus-1 yard, plus a pass defensed. RG Zack Martin, DAL : No sacks or pass pressures allowed; his blocks were essential to the final three DeMarco Murray runs of the touchdown drive that gave Dallas the lead.

: No sacks or pass pressures allowed; his blocks were essential to the final three DeMarco Murray runs of the touchdown drive that gave Dallas the lead. LT Jason Peters, PHI : Held Jason Pierre-Paul of the Giants to 1.5 pass pressures with no sacks or QB hits; Philadelphia running backs had 67 yards on 11 carries to the left.

: Held Jason Pierre-Paul of the Giants to 1.5 pass pressures with no sacks or QB hits; Philadelphia running backs had 67 yards on 11 carries to the left. RB Antone Smith, ATL: Led all Week 6 running backs with 37 receiving DYAR (4 targets, 4 catches, 64 yards, and a touchdown).

Apologies to the Baltimore Ravens fans for not being able to fit in any members of their front seven, which dominated Tampa Bay this week; we already did C.J. Mosley recently and the Madden Ultimate Team folks have some future plans for some of those other players.

Also, we know we've done a lot of right guards but no left guards yet. We're looking to do a left guard in the next week or two.

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All stats pages are now updated with Week 6 information -- or will be in the next few minutes -- including FO Premium, snap counts and playoff odds.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks of 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 60 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 19 percent of DAVE for teams with six games played, and 27 percent of DAVE for teams with five games played.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 38.7% 1 34.6% 1 4-1 21.5% 1 -16.5% 2 0.7% 18 2 BAL 28.2% 4 22.0% 4 4-2 18.2% 4 -7.0% 9 2.9% 8 3 SEA 26.8% 2 23.9% 2 3-2 12.1% 9 -9.3% 5 5.4% 4 4 GB 23.8% 3 22.4% 3 4-2 18.6% 3 -3.1% 13 2.2% 10 5 CIN 18.0% 5 14.0% 5 3-1-1 14.3% 5 -2.6% 14 1.1% 17 6 PHI 13.9% 13 12.2% 7 5-1 -4.0% 20 -6.4% 11 11.5% 1 7 DET 13.0% 9 9.1% 9 4-2 -5.7% 22 -28.6% 1 -9.9% 32 8 SD 12.9% 7 12.8% 6 5-1 14.1% 6 2.6% 20 1.3% 14 9 CLE 11.7% 18 5.1% 15 3-2 20.7% 2 10.4% 29 1.3% 16 10 DAL 11.6% 12 8.1% 10 5-1 13.2% 8 0.1% 16 -1.5% 20 11 NE 9.4% 10 10.2% 8 4-2 -1.3% 19 -6.9% 10 3.8% 7 12 ATL 7.5% 6 5.4% 13 2-4 14.1% 7 16.0% 31 9.4% 2 13 IND 6.6% 17 5.5% 12 4-2 6.0% 12 3.9% 21 4.5% 5 14 KC 6.0% 14 3.2% 16 2-3 5.1% 13 0.5% 18 1.4% 13 15 SF 5.8% 16 6.6% 11 4-2 -0.5% 18 -11.8% 3 -5.5% 27 16 CHI 4.7% 19 5.4% 14 3-3 3.9% 14 -7.1% 8 -6.3% 28 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 MIA 1.1% 21 -0.6% 18 2-3 -0.1% 16 -10.0% 4 -8.8% 31 18 BUF 0.2% 15 -0.6% 17 3-3 -14.7% 27 -8.0% 7 6.9% 3 19 ARI -0.2% 20 -1.6% 20 4-1 -11.9% 26 -8.9% 6 2.8% 9 20 PIT -1.5% 11 -0.7% 19 3-3 3.1% 15 6.0% 23 1.3% 15 21 NYG -2.9% 8 -2.9% 21 3-3 -4.6% 21 -4.1% 12 -2.4% 22 22 CAR -4.4% 22 -3.7% 22 3-2-1 7.3% 11 10.0% 28 -1.6% 21 23 WAS -8.8% 23 -9.4% 24 1-5 -0.2% 17 0.3% 17 -8.3% 30 24 HOU -9.9% 24 -9.8% 25 3-3 -6.3% 23 -0.3% 15 -3.9% 25 25 NO -10.9% 25 -4.8% 23 2-3 11.6% 10 22.6% 32 0.0% 19 26 TEN -19.9% 26 -17.6% 27 2-4 -7.9% 24 7.3% 24 -4.6% 26 27 STL -20.5% 28 -15.2% 26 1-4 -8.3% 25 8.8% 25 -3.3% 24 28 NYJ -21.0% 27 -17.7% 28 1-5 -24.4% 29 0.6% 19 4.0% 6 29 OAK -25.8% 30 -23.6% 29 0-5 -17.6% 28 10.0% 27 1.8% 12 30 MIN -31.5% 29 -25.9% 30 2-4 -28.1% 31 5.3% 22 1.9% 11 31 JAC -41.1% 32 -35.7% 31 0-6 -28.8% 32 9.3% 26 -3.0% 23 32 TB -47.4% 31 -38.8% 32 1-5 -24.6% 30 15.2% 30 -7.7% 29

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).