On Wednesday, Bush's veteran strategist, Karl Rove, called for a "political war college'' that teaches Republicans how to hone their message on Medicare reform.

"Next year, Republicans must describe their Medicare reforms plainly, set the record straight vigorously when Democrats demagogue, and go on the attack,'' Rove wrote in a column for The Wall Street Journal. "They have to become as comfortable talking about Medicare in the coming year as they did in talking about health care reform last year.''

The new messaging challenge for Republicans recalls what Bush endured when he tried to reform Social Security in 2005. Democrats argued that his proposal to shore up the trust fund with private investment accounts would "kill'' or "privatize'' Social Security, unnerving seniors whose livelihoods depended on that monthly government check.

Republican consultant Rick Wilson said that the Democrats won't get away with "scaring seniors'' this time because of their widespread skepticism about Obama's ability to turn the economy around and rein in the deficit. Ryan's plan is based on the premise that Medicare and other entitlement programs are bankrupting the U.S., while Democrats argue that the overhaul will leave seniors even worse off.

"Democrats are straight-up fear-mongering, and it speaks to how little they have to offer the American people,'' said Wilson, who is advising Senate candidate Adam Hasner in Florida, a strong supporter of the Ryan plan in a state chock-full of elderly voters. "Democrats have talking points but no solutions.''

The good news for Republicans? The special election in New York's 26th District on Tuesday offered a test run of a key Democratic line of attack. Polls show that voters' opinions of Ryan's plan depend on how the question is worded. For example, a poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 68 percent of respondents preferred the status quo after hearing an argument against changes to Medicare, while 54 percent favored an overhaul after hearing an argument in favor of reform.

"Without this election, Republicans might have rushed into 2012 with their Medicare message and gotten hammered,'' Coker said. "Now they know they need to make an adjustment.''