Of Ballots and Butterfly Wings

By Doug Linder (11/15/2000) For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;

For want of a shoe, the horse was lost,

For want of a horse, the rider was lost;

For want of a rider, the battle was lost;

For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost.

"The Butterfly Effect" is the title James Gleick chose for the first chapter of his acclaimed 1987 book, Chaos. Gleick describes the Butterfly Effect as "the notion that a butterfly stirring the air today in Peking can transform storm centers next month in New York." As counter-intuitive as it may seem that the gently flapping wings of a single butterfly could alter world weather patterns, that is precisely the teaching of chaos theory. In scientific jargon, the Butterfly Effect is "the sensitive dependence of outcomes on initial conditions."

Though the Butterfly Effect originated as a scientific principle, it has application to social, political, and economic change as well. The long march of human history has time and time again been dramatically shaped by actions that when they happened would have seemed anything but consequential. Consider two examples from our just-ended century. Had the Director of the Academy of Arts in Vienna not rejected, in October of 1907, the application of an aspiring eighteen-year-old painter named Adolf Hitler, the world might never have witnessed the horrors of World War II and the Holocaust. And who could have imagined when a security guard named Frank Wills spotted a piece of tape on a stairwell door at the Watergate Hotel on June 9, 1972, that his sharp eyes would bring down a sitting President?

The actions of the Arts Director in Vienna in 1907 and Frank Wills in Washington in 1972 continue to influence the unfolding of events. What books would have been written, what marvels invented, what heroic deeds done, by the ten million human beings whose lives might have been lived out had Hitler been given the opportunity to stick to his painting? If Frank Wills never discovered the piece of tape marking the Watergate break-in that set off a series of events leading to Nixons resignation, there would have been no Ford pardon, no Carter victory-and most likely no Reagan or Clinton presidencies either. The enormous, unanticipated consequences of small actions never end. Faulkner may have made the point best in Absalom, Absalom!: Maybe nothing ever happens once and is finished. Maybe happen is never once but like ripples on water after the pebble sinks, the ripples moving on, spreading, the pool attached by a narrow umbilical water cord to the next pool . . . .

The extraordinary developments of the past few days may provide another lesson in the workings of the Butterfly Effect-or should we call it in this case, the Butterfly Ballot Effect? We may soon witness-depending on the result of recounts, overseas votes, and court challenges-George Bush elected President of the United States because of a well-intentioned decision by Theresa LePore, the Palm Beach supervisor of elections. In an effort to make the ballot easier to read for the many senior citizens of Palm Beach County, LePore decided to enlarge the printed names of candidates, causing the list of names to spill over onto a second page. This resulted in the now hotly-contested "butterfly ballot" design, so called because of its two "wings" of candidates separated by punch holes in between.

The confusing location of holes in the butterfly ballot apparently caused 3,000 or more votes intended for Al Gore to go to Pat Buchanan. For the many elderly Jewish voters in Palm Beach County, the irony was almost too much to take. Vote totals from this single one of Floridas 67 counties indicate that this Democratic stronghold produced 20% of Buchanan's votes in the entire state. Of additional concern to Gore supporters are the nearly 20,000 ballots voided for "overvoting"-ballots which in most cases have holes punched for both Buchanan and Gore, some apparently cast by seniors thinking that they were voting once for Gore and once for Lieberman. As things now stand, the intended-but not counted-votes for Gore in Palm Beach County exceed the thin margin separating the two contestants for Florida's 25 electoral votes.

All this has been tough on the poor Palm Beach County supervisor of elections. Theresa LePore, a Democrat, spent much of the first full day of the Florida recount in tears, according to a county aide. Shes very distraught, very upset that all this is coming down on her, says County Commissioner Mary McCarty. Shes at the center of a hurricane. . . . The presidency of the United States is on the line and all eyes are on Theresa."

The Butterfly Effect suggests that the Butterfly Ballot Effect will not end when George Bush (if he turns out to be the ultimate winner of the tattered prize) leaves office. It may also determine, in ways we cannot yet know, the outcomes of elections in 2004, 2008, and beyond. A 5-4 decision of the Supreme Court in the year 2015 on abortion, affirmative action, federalism, or some other issue of great importance might well have its beginnings in the decision of a previously obscure county official in Palm Beach to go with the ballot design called the butterfly. On such wings, history takes flight.









