Halfway to NASCAR's Chase: Four things we've learned

Jeff Gluck | USA TODAY Sports

DOVER, Del. — NASCAR has reached the halfway point of its regular season — 13 races down, 13 races to go until the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set.

So what have we learned so far heading into the second half, which begins this weekend at Pocono Raceway? Here's a look at four things:

1. Martin Truex Jr. is a championship contender

When Truex started out the season on a top-10 streak, it was a nice story. He was showing consistency and the results were much improved over last year for his Furniture Row Racing team.

But it's deep enough into the season now to prove Truex's success hasn't been a fluke. In fact, he's seemingly only getting better (his No. 78 has led the most laps in each of the last three points races).

Although he hasn't won yet — and wins carry much weight in the elimination rounds of the Chase — it's time to view Truex as a legitimate title threat and mention him alongside Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick.

After all, top-10 finishes (Truex has 12 in 13 races) are the kind of thing that will get a driver quite far in the Chase. Remember Ryan Newman last year?

2. No surprise winners yet

The nine race winners have all been Chase drivers from last year. And none of the winners are currently outside the top 16 in points.

So despite the emphasis on winning when it comes to qualifying for the playoff, the Chase field would currently be the same whether it was based on wins or points alone.

That said, the Chase field at the halfway point figures to have some different names than last year. Truex is already a virtual lock (he's 140 points inside the Chase right now) and Jamie McMurray is also in good position to points-race his way in (he's seventh in the standings).

Another new Chaser could be Paul Menard, who often starts quickly and fades but is still 12th in points this season.

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3. Tony Stewart is running out of time

For Stewart and his fans, the great thing about the Chase format is he could win anytime and lock himself into the field despite his worst career start (28th in points, one top-10).

But that's easier said than done, especially when he hasn't come close to being competitive most weeks.

Unless he can rely on a road-course win or score a victory at Daytona International Speedway next month — both of which are entirely possible — Stewart and his team need to show rapid improvement in the next month.

Otherwise, if he and crew chief Chad Johnston head into August without a win, it's going to be unrealistic to think they could suddenly find the speed necessary to score a last-minute win at a place like Darlington Raceway or even Richmond International Raceway.

And if you're wondering why Stewart has struggled while two of his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates (Harvick and Kurt Busch) excel? The guess here is because he's had difficulty adapting to NASCAR's current rules package, not because of the residual effects of his broken leg (2013) or the tragic accident that killed Kevin Ward Jr. (2014).

4. Kyle Busch is amazing, but that might not be enough

It's been remarkable to see Busch return earlier than expected from a broken right leg and left foot following his February accident at Daytona, only to show immediate speed in his race car when most mortals would still be hobbling around on crutches.

But while it's a great story to think Busch might be able to rally into the top 30 and win a race to make the Chase, it seems like a longshot. Just look at Sunday's race at Dover International Speedway, where he ran in the top five all day and seemed set to take another chunk out of his deficit to 30th place.

Instead, he got caught up in a late-race crash and ended up finishing 36th — an incident which probably cost him around 30 points. As a result, he only gained one point on 30th place (Justin Allgaier) and is still 168 points behind.

That's the kind of day Busch can't afford — and it wasn't even in his control. Now he probably only has a few more mulligans like Dover over the next 13 races, which means he'll have to be near-perfect behind the wheel while also hoping to avoid the kind of bad luck he found Sunday.

Follow Gluck on Twitter @jeff_gluck

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