The United States is engaged in something I call escalation dominance. This means we need to calculate how an adversary is likely to respond to a given action of ours. What are the United States’ vulnerabilities? What are theirs? Depending on the adversary’s reactions, what is our range of follow up moves? In short, how does the United States increase pain for the Iranians while denying them the opportunity to counter escalate?

In the complex context of Iran, this becomes multidimensional chess. We have forces in Iraq and Syria, as well as a military presence throughout the Gulf: in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman. These are assets, but they are also potential targets, as are the countries where they are located. We will also have to consult very closely with Israel.

Escalation dominance is not a simple measure of raw power. It is about which party is more likely to dominate in a given context, something that is a function of abilities but also determination, prioritization and patience. I learned this the hard way in Beirut in the 1980s, when the young Islamic Republic of Iran was still able to force us out of Lebanon, even while it was engaged in a brutal war of attrition against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

An attempt at escalation dominance by Iran might include threats and actions against our regional allies, sustained attacks on tanker traffic in the Gulf and direct attacks on United States installations in the region. But the options for Iran and its backers are not only kinetic. Even before the Suleimani strike in Baghdad, political parties close to Iran had floated the possibility of legislation in the Iraqi parliament demanding the departure of all United States forces from the country. On Sunday, Iraqi lawmakers passed it, and the prime minister has indicated he will sign it.

While we might be in a virtual state of war with Iran, the confrontations are taking place in Iraq, which in many ways is caught in the middle. If our embassy in Baghdad is evacuated and our ability to monitor and influence events on the ground is lost, it will be a victory for Iran. Iraqis remember that the last time United States forces withdrew from their country, the Islamic State moved in.