Halvorson received 29 percent of the vote against Jackson last year. NRA ally could win Jackson's seat

A white ex-congresswoman with an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association is the front-runner to replace former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. in a majority-black Chicagoland district with inner-city neighborhoods wracked by gun violence.

At first glance, Debbie Halvorson should have no business winning the Feb. 26 special election. The former Democratic congresswoman was crushed by Jackson in a primary last year. She’s a white Democrat seeking to represent a district in which 54 percent of voters are African-American.


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And she’s an unapologetic Second Amendment backer — with endorsements from the NRA in two of her previous congressional campaigns — despite an outpouring of concern among voters and her campaign rivals about gun violence.

Yet there’s reason to think Halvorson could eke out a win. She is a known entity in much of the district thanks to her time in Congress and earlier rise to state Senate majority leader — the first woman to hold the post. Sixteen other candidates are vying for the Democratic nod, and all of her formidable competitors are African-American. That creates a possibility that the black vote will splinter, opening a path for Halvorson.

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She enjoys a narrow but critical base of support in the suburban and rural parts of the sprawling district, which stretches from the South Side of Chicago to rural Kankakee County about 50 miles to the south. The former congresswoman doesn’t need to win a majority: The crowded Democratic field means it could take as little as 20 percent of the vote to clinch the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to winning the seat given the district’s liberal makeup.

Halvorson received 29 percent against Jackson last year.

Now, black leaders — concerned about Halvorson’s position atop polls — say they’re prepared to make gun control the central issue in the contest. The goal is to paint her as an NRA ally who’s too conservative for the seat and insensitive to Chicago’s rising tide of gun violence.

“The NRA gives Debbie Halvorson an ‘A’ rating,” said Michael Pfleger, a Roman Catholic priest and gun control activist in Chicago who is supporting one of Halvorson’s opponents. “That tells me she should not be the representative from the 2nd District. If she gets an ‘A’ rating from the NRA, she gets an ‘F’ from me.”

Though she has described herself as a conservative Democrat, Halvorson voted with her party more than 90 percent of the time in Congress. She backed a cap-and-trade bill as well as President Barack Obama’s health care and economic stimulus measures. The onetime cosmetics saleswoman is pitching herself to voters as an experienced hand who can hit the ground running in Washington after Jackson’s long-running troubles that ended with his resignation in November.

But it’s her stance on guns that’s drawing the most attention.

Though her primary rivals haven’t attacked Halvorson head on — in a 17-way primary, they have to focus on promoting themselves — the campaign’s heavy focus on guns is seen at least in part as a way to draw a contrast with the front-runner.

Last week, Alderman Anthony Beale held a news conference to attack the NRA. State Sen. Toi Hutchinson is promoting legislation she sponsored to ban military-style assault weapons and high-capacity magazine clips. And on Friday, Robin Kelly, the Cook County chief administrative officer who has made gun control the central plank of her campaign, released a radio ad vowing to back stringent gun control measures if elected to Congress. All three are running for Jackson’s old seat.

“It’s heartbreaking there are kids dying every day. … We all need to say enough is enough,” Kelly says in the ad. “While we don’t know who will represent this community in Congress, we do know that we must speak with one voice on this critical issue. That’s why I’m asking each of my colleagues in this race to join this pledge.”

Halvorson, who has supported allowing guns in national parks and opposed legislation to ban large-capacity firearm magazines, is unapologetic about her views on guns. Chicago voters, she said, have no desire for some of the gun control measures being promoted after the Newtown, Conn., massacre.

“I’m not willing to change my stance,” Halvorson told POLITICO. “Wherever I go, people beg me to keep my stance, not to give in to public pressure.”

The former congresswoman said she wants emphasis placed on keeping guns out of the hands of the mentally ill.

“Obviously, we need to do something, and I’m glad we’re having a national conversation about it,” she said. “We’ve got to do something that’s going to work and that’s going to pass.”

Voicing her opposition to gun control measures probably makes the most sense politically for Halvorson, because she’s counting on heavy support from more conservative suburban and rural parts of the district.

The focus on gun control in the race reflects its potency as an issue. Chicago had 506 gun-related homicides in 2012 — its highest total in four years. And the Newtown tragedy has only heightened sensitivity to gun violence.

But its prominence in the race is also an indication that black leaders are increasingly worried about Halvorson. A poll conducted for Hutchinson’s campaign released earlier this month showed Halvorson leading with 16 percent, followed by Hutchinson with 12 percent and Kelly with 8 percent.

Some African-American leaders hoped the field of black candidates would have been winnowed by now. But it hasn’t happened. Indeed, the next four weeks could turn into a brawl between the two leading black candidates, Hutchinson and Kelly.

“It’s disheartening to see the number of candidates,” said Democratic state Sen. Kwame Raoul, who has been vocal about the size of the field. “It’s of concern.”

Still, a Halvorson win isn’t a foregone conclusion. There’s still a month before the Democratic primary, plenty of time for her opponents to raise questions about her record. And while the poll showed Halvorson holding a narrow lead, it also suggested that voters are just beginning to learn about her lesser-known opponents — meaning that they have more room to rise than she.

“The question is, does [Halvorson] have enough to win in the fourth quarter,” said Thom Serafin, a Democratic strategist in Chicago. “She’s winning at halftime right now.”