Terry Branstad says Ron Paul has the strongest organization in Iowa. Branstad: Paul's Iowa ops are tops

ORLANDO, Fla. —One month out from the Iowa caucuses, Republican Gov. Terry Branstad says Ron Paul has the strongest organization in his state.

The Iowa governor also believes Newt Gingrich could win the Jan. 3 caucuses if he performs well in the last two debates.


“This is the most up-in-the-air, unsettled caucus I’ve ever seen,” the 65-year-old Republican, who has been a fixture of state politics since the 1970s, said in an extended interview Thursday at the Republican Governors Association annual meeting here. “It’s a wide open and very fluid situation. It all depends upon who does well in these last two debates and then has the momentum and the ability to get their people to the caucuses on Jan. 3…It’s gonna be a dog fight here in the end.”

With seven candidates actively vying for votes on the ground, the unaligned Branstad predicted no one will capture more than 30 percent.

“Ron Paul has got probably the best organization and has a very loyal following. He’s got more yard signs and bumper stickers than anybody else,” he said. “I don’t think he’ll win, but I think he will get 15 to 18 percent. The person who wins is going to probably get 25 percent plus.”

Branstad said Gingrich could “potentially” win on momentum from good debate performances alone.

“It depends on how motivated people are to get out,” he said. “I don’t know. We’ve seen him look like he was out of it to now riding high. The question is how well he performs in these debates. Now he’s the frontrunner, and everyone attacks the frontrunner.”

“The debates have had more to do with this than anything else,” he added. “I still think organization matters, and yet more people are watching the debates.”

Gingrich has not spent a great deal of time in the state, and he did not open his Iowa campaign headquarters until Wednesday. Branstad said it’s helpful for the former House speaker to have Craig Schoenfeld and Katie Koberg, two veteran Iowa hands, on board.

The governor said Gingrich benefits from the failure of social conservatives to unite behind one candidate because it could allow him to win with a smaller share of the vote. He said both Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann could outperform expectations because of the amount of time they’ve spent on the ground. The former Pennsylvania senator has visited all 99 counties, Branstad noted, and the Minnesota congresswoman showed she could turn out evangelicals with her victory at the August straw poll.

Herman Cain needs to make the “personal” decision about whether to remain in the race, the governor said, passing up a chance to call for him to exit in the face of new allegations against him.

“I don’t know if he stays in or not,” Branstad said. “Initially a lot of people when the first allegations came out were going to give him the benefit of the doubt, but now it’s just one after another after another.”