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1. Third-year hope

If something big is going to happen, the odds are good that it will have happened by the end of a head coach's third year on the job.

Since 2006, 46 teams have improved by at least 14 adjusted points per game (per S&P+) from one year to the next. That's about four to five big leaps per season for the entire country. From this group of 46, 36 were led by coaches that were either in their first (10), second (13), or third (13) years.

There have been some stragglers -- Gary Andersen (Utah State), Dana Holgorsen (West Virginia), Kevin Sumlin (Houston), and Rich Brooks (Kentucky) all saw significant improvement in their fourth years, and Joey Jones broke through in his fifth at startup South Alabama. The rest are made up of late-career bounceback efforts: Air Force under Troy Calhoun in 2014, TCU under Gary Patterson in 2014, etc.

The short version (Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 4.0



Projected S&P+ ranking: 121 (12 in MAC)



5-year recruiting ranking: 119 (11 in MAC)



Biggest strength: The backfield could be awesome with QB Brogan Roback and RB Shaq Vann.



Biggest question mark: How much can the worst run defense in the country improve in one year?



Biggest 2016 game: at Charlotte (Sept. 17). Any hope for a miracle bowl run will probably require a win here. The potential wins come early and late.



Summary: Eastern Michigan hasn't had a winning season since 1995 and hasn't been to a bowl since 1987. Can Chris Creighton's Eagles conjure up a third-year breakthrough? Is happiness even possible in the land of the gray field? 4.0: 121 (12 in MAC): 119 (11 in MAC): The backfield could be awesome with QB Brogan Roback and RB Shaq Vann.: How much can the worst run defense in the country improve in one year?: at Charlotte (Sept. 17). Any hope for a miracle bowl run will probably require a win here. The potential wins come early and late.Eastern Michigan hasn't had a winning season since 1995 and hasn't been to a bowl since 1987. Can Chris Creighton's Eagles conjure up a third-year breakthrough? Is happiness even possible in the land of the gray field?

By your third year on the job, the program is mostly yours. Sure, there are some fourth- or fifth-year guys who were recruited by your predecessor, but the depth chart is mostly filled with guys you signed. Plus, you've got the lay of the land by now -- you've got a decent read on your conference foes, you know which boosters you have to most obsessively placate, etc.

Quite often, we don't see third-year magic coming. It can be pretty random.

In 2015, USF's Willie Taggart looked like his third year might be his last until his Bulls dominated in the second half of the season; they ended up improving by 20.2 adjusted points per game.

In 2012, Mike MacIntyre's San Jose State, having already improved from 1-12 to 5-7 in his second year, exploded to 11-2 and 18.6 adjusted PPG higher than the previous year.

In 2006 under Mark Dantonio, Cincinnati improved by 17.9 points and ranked 17th in S&P+.

In 2014 under Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss improved by 16.1 points and played elite ball for about two-thirds of the season.

Dan McCarney at North Texas ... Ron Zook at Illinois ... Dave Clawson at Bowling Green ... Tim Beckman at Toledo ... all saw significant breakthroughs when only marginal improvement was expected.

The reason I bring this up in an Eastern Michigan preview should be pretty obvious: Chris Creighton is beginning his third year in Ypsilanti. EMU has long been one of the more hopeless programs in FBS; even in a conference loaded with parity and potential upward (or downward) movement, the Eagles have consistently struggled. They haven't finished above .500 since 1995, and they've only really come close once (6-6 in 2011 with two wins over FCS opponents; and yes, this happened in Ron English's *third* season on the job). They haven't been to a bowl since 1987.

From a 20,000-foot view, the reasons are unclear. EMU's revenue isn't any better or worse than the rest of the MAC -- in fact, in USA Today's most recent totals, EMU's $30.1 million revenue was third in the MAC (as proof of the MAC's parity, EMU is within $2.7 million of first-place Akron and $3.1 million of eighth-place NIU). And while the Eagles' facilities aren't amazing, they appear at first glance to be competitive.

EMU's issues seem to boil down to hires and intangibles -- a "winning culture," if you will. A school like NIU has it.

Creighton has thrived at little schools with minimal history. He twice reached the NAIA playoffs in four years at Ottawa (1997-2000) and reached the Division III playoffs three times at Wabash (2001-07). Six seasons at Drake, in the FCS' Pioneer League, produced six winning records and shares of two conference titles.

That EMU would be attracted to a guy with a 139-46 record at overlooked Midwestern schools made sense. But that doesn't mean it will work out. And through two years, it hasn't. Creighton came to Ypsilanti having never finished below .500 in 17 years as a head coach; he's 3-21 so far. His team took a step forward in 2015, but only on paper, and only on one side of the ball. The Eagles fell from 2-10 to 1-11 but improved from 128th in S&P+ to 121st thanks to an offense that showed viable progress. (The defense, meanwhile, was the worst in FBS.)

There might be hope, though. If experience and depth are keys to the third-year jump, EMU will have a lot. The Eagles return their starting quarterback, an explosive sophomore running back, four of their top six receiving targets, and every offensive lineman, and they are loaded with juniors and seniors at every level of the defense.

Experience doesn't perfectly equate with talent, but it is a prerequisite for a leap.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 122 | Final S&P+ Rk: 121 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 5-Sep Old Dominion 117 34-38 L 28% 39% +4.6 +0.5 12-Sep at Wyoming 115 48-29 W 72% 99% +34.2 +32.5 19-Sep Ball State 110 17-28 L 19% 25% +4.5 -5.0 26-Sep Army 108 36-58 L 27% 38% -21.8 -25.0 3-Oct at LSU 10 22-44 L 21% 4% +22.0 +22.5 10-Oct Akron 84 21-47 L 10% 1% -24.0 -18.5 17-Oct at Toledo 20 20-63 L 15% 1% -14.9 -14.0 24-Oct at Northern Illinois 66 21-49 L 8% 0% -11.7 0.0 29-Oct Western Michigan 51 28-58 L 9% 0% -23.7 -10.0 7-Nov at Miami-OH 113 13-28 L 2% 0% -18.9 -10.0 14-Nov Massachusetts 100 17-28 L 9% 2% -5.1 -4.0 27-Nov at Central Michigan 67 28-35 L 13% 2% +15.6 +17.0

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 24.4 95 42.8 128 Points Per Game 25.4 91 42.1 123

2. Iffy, then awful

A lack of depth catches up to you, especially when you suffer a few perfectly-placed injuries. EMU was able to survive an injury to starting quarterback Reginald Bell in the season opener thanks to the presence of former four-star signee Brogan Roback. But inexperience on offense and key injuries on defense were too much to overcome.

An already undermanned defensive front cratered when tackle Pat O'Connor and end Jeremiah Harris went down. And only three of 13 regulars in the front seven played in all 12 games. The secondary was technically more stable but still lost starting safety Ikie Calderon two games into the season and leaned heavily on sophomores.

This team wasn't ready to play at a high level no matter what, but as opponents adjusted to the offense and the defense dipped further into the second string, the effects on the product were obvious.

First 5 games :

Average percentile performance: 33% (~top 85) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +8.7 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 6.6, EMU 6.1 (-0.5)

: Average percentile performance: 33% (~top 85) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +8.7 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 6.6, EMU 6.1 (-0.5) Last 7 games:

Average percentile performance: 9% (~top 115) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -5.6 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 7.4, EMU 5.1 (-2.3)

EMU hinted at bowl-level potential early on, with a dominant win over Wyoming and a competitive showing in Baton Rouge (the Eagles trailed just 30-22 heading into the fourth quarter). But home losses to ODU, Ball State, and Army still established EMU's place near the bottom of the FBS totem pole. And after the LSU game, things fell apart quickly; EMU lost its final seven games by an average of 23 points each.

Offense

Q1 Rk 101 1st Down Rk 80 Q2 Rk 44 2nd Down Rk 114 Q3 Rk 89 3rd Down Rk 48 Q4 Rk 80



Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Brogan Roback 6'3, 207 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8663 211 346 2304 16 11 61.0% 12 3.4% 6.2 Reginald Bell 35 59 318 2 3 59.3% 12 16.9% 3.5 James Pensyl 6'6, 231 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7995 Todd Porter 6'3, 185 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7633 Isaac Stiebeling 6'4, 195 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7633

3. Brogan had his moments

In Reggie Bell, EMU appeared to have a quarterback capable of justifying hope. As a freshman, he averaged 6.5 yards per non-sack carry and 7.1 yards per pass attempt; granted, he fumbled too much, took too many sacks, and threw too many interceptions, but he was a freshman and a dynamic one at that.

Bell had completed 12 of 18 passes with a 146.8 passer rating and 58 rushing yards against Old Dominion when he got hurt. He missed the next five games, and in his absence, Brogan Roback took charge. He was 17-for-24 for 330 yards and three touchdowns against Wyoming, and he completed at least 67 percent of his passes in five of his first seven games. He was good enough to remind you of his potential, but he was still an inconsistent sophomore -- his passer rating topped 140 four times and dipped below 100 four times.

When Bell returned, EMU attempted a juggling act between the two quarterbacks, but it didn't work incredibly well. Bell's instinctive mobility disappeared, and Roback had fewer opportunities to find a rhythm.

Bell elected to transfer in December, which means this is Roback's team now. That could mean very good things; his quick passing ability could give EMU a desperately needed efficiency boost. And he should still get a little bit of competition from athletic former WKU and Garden City CC quarterback Todd Porter. He'll also have an experienced offensive line protecting him.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Darius Jackson RB 208 1078 14 5.2 6.5 35.1% 2 1 Shaq Vann RB 5'10, 210 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8059 100 586 5 5.9 7.9 39.0% 1 1 Brogan Roback QB 6'3, 207 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8663 39 145 1 3.7 3.7 41.0% 4 2 Reginald Bell QB 27 188 0 7.0 5.4 55.6% 3 2 Eddie Daugherty WR 5'9, 159 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7500 6 7 0 1.2 2.1 50.0% 2 1 Blake Banham RB 5'10, 180 So. NR NR 4 27 0 6.8 2.2 75.0% 0 0 Juwan Lewis RB 4 20 0 5.0 2.0 50.0% 0 0 Breck Turner RB 6'1, 199 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8299 Lavonte Robinson FB 5'8, 246 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8056

















4. A big-play running game

EMU couldn't efficiency or consistency from either the run or the pass, but the Eagles did produce quite a few explosive rushes. Their 20 rushes of 20-plus yards ranked 51st in FBS, their six 40-plusses ranked 38th. Thousand-yard rusher Darius Jackson was one reason for that, but for the season, Shaq Vann hinted both at more efficiency (39 percent of his carries gained at least five yards, compared to Jackson's 35 percent) and explosiveness. He carried at least four times in every game and averaged at least 5.8 yards per carry seven times.

Vann could be ready for a lovely season, and 2015 star recruit Breck Turner, a three-time scout team player of the week last fall, could be ready to fill Vann's spot on the second string. The depth here is minimal, but if Vann and Turner both stay healthy, this could be one of the better 1-2 punches in the MAC. And if it isn't in 2016, it could be in 2017 or 2018.

Vann and Turner could have a solid line for the foreseeable future. EMU got a good push in short-yardage situations last year, and while seniors account for 119 of EMU's 123 returning career starts, there is a full second string of sophomores (including three-stars Ka'John Armstrong and Dakota Tallman) who could be ready to take over in 2017.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP Dustin Creel WR-X 67 43 451 64.2% 17.6% 6.7 62.7% 50.7% 1.22 Eddie Daugherty WR-H 5'7, 159 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7500 56 37 557 66.1% 14.7% 9.9 46.4% 50.0% 1.84 Kris Strange WR-Z 50 26 273 52.0% 13.1% 5.5 50.0% 38.0% 1.33 Shaq Vann RB 5'10, 210 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8059 44 37 264 84.1% 11.5% 6.0 61.4% 43.2% 1.23 Cody Tuttle TE 6'4, 250 Sr. NR 0.7400 43 33 348 76.7% 11.3% 8.1 48.8% 69.8% 1.04 Sam Browning TE 6'5, 229 Sr. NR NR 37 24 326 64.9% 9.7% 8.8 62.2% 59.5% 1.36 Darius Jackson RB 34 21 201 61.8% 8.9% 5.9 47.1% 38.2% 1.52 Austin Stone WR-H 5'11, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7444 18 9 156 50.0% 4.7% 8.7 50.0% 44.4% 0.96 Kevin Davis WR-X 5'11, 193 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8650 11 6 41 54.5% 2.9% 3.7 36.4% 27.3% 0.91 Blake Banham RB 5'10, 180 So. NR NR 11 6 28 54.5% 2.9% 2.5 54.5% 9.1% 2.15 Izaiah Fuller WR 6'4, 207 So. NR NR 5 3 8 60.0% 1.3% 1.6 60.0% 20.0% 0.73 Aloyis Gray WR-Z 6'4, 200 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8372 3 3 33 100.0% 0.8% 11.0 66.7% 66.7% 1.43 Lemar Harris WR 6'2, 189 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8203 Kezio Snelling WR 6'1, 170 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8248 Isaac Holder WR 5'11, 165 RSFr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8000 Braylin Collins WR 6'1, 164 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7900 Sam Girodat TE 6'3, 244 RSFr. 2 stars (5.2) NR



















5. Another exciting sophomore

If you're only going to have a limited number of truly exciting players, they might as well be youngsters. Vann and maybe Turner give EMU potential in the backfield, and tiny Eddie Daugherty gives the Eagles an exciting option in the slot. Daugherty combined the efficiency you tend to expect from a slot receiver (66 percent catch rate, 50 percent success rate) with big-play potential -- he averaged 15.1 yards per catch and topped 100 receiving yards three times last year (all when Roback was the primary QB).

Obviously size could prevent Daugherty from being any sort of bell cow for the offense, but if you've got Vann periodically reaching the second level of the offense a decent percentage of the time, and you've got Daugherty showing the ability to take short passes a long way, then you've got the makings of a solid offense.

Daugherty will need help, though. Dustin Creel and Kris Strange, the other two players targeted at least 50 times last year, are gone. And while their production was unimpressive (6.2 yards per target), someone still has to replace them, and no other wideout caught even 10 passes.

Be on the lookout for Austin Stone. He caught only eight passes last year, but a) seven of them came in the last seven games, and b) he averaged 17 yards per catch. He caught a 69-yarder against CMU and a 20-yarder against Toledo. Beyond these two and senior Kevin Davis, EMU might be leaning heavily on unproven youngsters, but if Stone can provide some level of reliability, maybe that's okay.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Andrew Wylie RT 6'6, 311 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7818 12 33 Darien Terrell RG 6'4, 333 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7696 12 26 Jake Hurcombe LG 6'2, 285 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7779 11 25 Cole Gardner LT 6'5, 294 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7678 9 19 Matt Thornton C 6'4, 305 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7878 12 16 Jeremy Hickey LT 6'4, 311 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7383 2 2 Ka'John Armstrong LG 6'4, 282 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8078 2 2 Dakota Tallman C 6'5, 302 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7867 0 0 Chris Hendricks RG 6'5, 298 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7383 0 0 Pete Bergman RT 6'9, 311 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7400 0 0 Jimmy Leatiota OL 6'3, 290 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7600



Steven Nielsen OL 6'8, 320 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8133



Jake Donnellon OL 6'5, 280 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7956





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Defense

Q1 Rk 107 1st Down Rk 128 Q2 Rk 127 2nd Down Rk 126 Q3 Rk 128 3rd Down Rk 105 Q4 Rk 89



Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Pat O'Connor

(2014) DT 6'4, 267 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7478 12 45.5 6.6% 14.0 7.5 0 2 2 0 Clay Dawson DT 12 36.5 5.1% 8.5 5.0 0 1 2 0 Mike Brown NT 6'2, 288 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 12 35.5 5.0% 4.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Luke Maclean DE 6'5, 275 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8512 11 34.0 4.7% 10.0 5.0 0 2 0 2 Jeremiah Harris

(2014) DE 6'5, 256 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7511 11 20.5 3.0% 1.5 1.0 0 1 1 0 Kwanii Figueroa DT NR 11 15.5 2.2% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0 0 Derrick Dunlap DE 6'0, 287 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7533 7 6.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Deshai Powell NT 6'2, 277 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7533 7 5.5 0.8% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Arron Pipkins NT 2 2.0 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Lion King DE 6'4, 226 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 Nick Dillon DT 6'2, 273 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8215

















Joe Keels

(Nebraska) DE 6'3, 265 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8790 Justice Williams DE 6'4, 205 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7983



















6. A massive upgrade up front

When your improving offense is dragged down by the worst defense in FBS, your first instinct is probably going to be to change defensive coordinators. Brad McCaslin's approximate 3-3-5 approach didn't work very well, so Creighton called on an old friend.

Neal Neathery was Creighton's defensive coordinator and assistant head coach at Drake in 2008-09 before taking over as the inaugural DC at UTSA under Larry Coker. Utilizing a 4-2-5, he twice dragged the Roadrunners' defense into the top half of FBS -- 61st in Def. S&P+ in 2013 and 59th in 2014 -- before massive turnover led to 2015 regression (103rd).

Going from a three-man line to a four-man line can sometimes create depth issues up front, but thanks to injuries that's not much of a concern. EMU brings back not only two of last year's three starters, but also tackle Pat O'Connor and end Jeremiah Harris, two potential 2015 starters who combined to play just three games last year. Add them to a line that features former Pitt transfer Luke Maclean, takle Mike Brown, and former Nebraska end Joe Keels, and you actually might have something pretty exciting.

Linebacker tended to be a strength for Neathery's UTSA defenses, and thanks to injuries, he'll be choosing from between five or six experienced LBs there. In all, it wouldn't be a surprise if the defensive front showed massive improvement in 2016.

7. The pass rush should be legitimately solid

Maclean did a nice job of filling O'Connor's shoes from a pass-rushing standpoint last year, and thanks mostly to Maclean and since-departed tackle Clay Dawson, EMU ranked in the top 50 in Adj. Sack Rate. That could have been an exciting thing if opponents ever had to pass.

With Maclean and O'Connor both back and Keels moving in, the pass rush should again be a strength, and Neathery might not have to blitz to generate pressure. But once again, the key will be actually forcing opponents to throw.

The run defense was the worst in the country, and while experience should produce improvement, exactly how much is possible in one year? Adding a fourth down lineman should improve EMU's overall size -- O'Connor, Brown, Maclean, Harris, and Keels average a decent 6'4, 270 -- but tackle size still lacks, and only two of the 10 players listed above top 280 pounds.

If EMU can just improve to about 100th or 110th in run defense, the pass defense could become a decent weapon. But that's an "if," not a "when."

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Great Ibe BUCK 11 97.5 13.6% 10.5 1.5 0 2 3 0 Anthony Zappone MIKE 6'2, 238 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7718 7 35.0 4.9% 2.0 0.5 0 0 0 0 Kyle Rachwal MIKE 6'3, 225 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8000 9 34.5 4.8% 6.5 1.0 1 1 1 1 Derric Williams STUD 6'0, 230 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 12 33.5 4.7% 8.5 2.0 0 0 0 0 Nathan Adams MIKE 6'1, 227 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7333 10 27.0 3.8% 4.0 2.0 0 1 0 0 Amos Houston STUD 6'0, 220 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7200 8 12.0 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Jaylen Pickett BUCK 6'0, 221 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7752 12 5.0 0.7% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Tyler Onda BUCK 6'0, 222 So. NR NR 12 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Jason Beck WHIP 6'1, 202 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7833 12 65.5 9.1% 0 0 1 0 0 0 Ray Tillman CB 12 52.0 7.3% 2.5 0 0 5 0 0 Juan Giraldo S 5'11, 195 Jr. NR 0.7300 12 51.0 7.1% 1 0 0 3 0 0 Anthony Brown ROVER 5'11, 203 Sr. NR 0.7633 11 49.5 6.9% 7.5 1 1 4 1 0 DaQuan Pace CB 5'10, 165 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7552 12 23.5 3.3% 1 0 0 6 0 0 Ikie Calderon S 5'9, 176 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7300 2 16.0 2.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jalen Williams WHIP 12 14.0 2.0% 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 Tim Gordon S 5'11, 171 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7000 12 9.0 1.3% 1 0 0 0 0 0 Ross Williams CB 5'11, 167 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7000 11 6.5 0.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Devon Russell ROVER

10 5.5 0.8% 0 0 1 1 0 0 Aaron Abbott ROVER 6'0, 202 Jr. NR NR 11 3.0 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tyrie Mack DB

6 2.5 0.3% 0 0 0 0 1 0 Brandon Bossard S 6'2, 209 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7917 Justin Moody CB 5'10, 175 So. NR NR Brody Hoying S 5'11, 199 RSFr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8031 Vincent Calhoun S 5'11, 171 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8067 Jalen Phelps CB 5'10, 171 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8079 Ohaji Hawkins CB 6'2, 166 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8041

8. The pass defense should come around first

You know the run defense was bad when you see that EMU ranked 78th in Passing S&P+ and still finished worst in overall defense. But the pass defense should again be solid this year. Despite electing to go with relatively soft coverage (which is what happens when you have to be mindful of the run on all downs), EMU's secondary made some plays last year. Safety Anthony Brown led the way with 7.5 tackles for loss and five passes defensed, and corner DaQuan Pace chipped in with six more PDs.

There could be a cornerback shortage with the loss of Ray Tillman, especially if sophomore Ross Williams isn't ready to take on more playing time. But safety will be a major strength with the return of Brown, Jason Beck, Juan Giraldo, and early-season starter Ikie Calderon. Plus, per the 247Sports Composite, Creighton signed three three-star freshmen to go with three-star redshirt freshman safety Brody Hoying. The EMU secondary appears to have depth that the rest of the EMU roster wishes it could emulate.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Austin Barnes 5'11, 218 Jr. 45 43.6 1 9 10 42.2% Dylan Mulder 8 33.4 0 3 3 75.0%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Brendan Renius 6'1, 248 Sr. 60 61.7 31 2 51.7%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Dylan Mulder 36-36 4-7 57.1% 7-10 70.0%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD Blake Banham KR 5'10, 180 So. 20 20.0 0 Eddie Daugherty KR 5'7, 159 So. 16 23.4 0 Blake Banham PR 5'10, 180 So. 7 5.9 0

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 80 Field Goal Efficiency 69 Punt Return Success Rate 104 Kick Return Success Rate 64 Punt Success Rate 88 Kickoff Success Rate 49

9. Neither strength nor weakness

At the very least, EMU's special teams unit didn't tend to make things worse. Dylan Mulder was inconsistent inside of 40 yards but great outside of 40. Kickoffs and kick returns were decent, while punts and punt returns were below average.

Everybody but Mulder returns from last year's unit, and if experience leads to more consistency from punter Austin Barnes and the return men, EMU could rise into the top 60 in Special Teams S&P+.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 3-Sep Miss. Valley State NR 32.2 97% 10-Sep at Missouri 47 -23.2 9% 17-Sep at Charlotte 123 -3.2 43% 24-Sep Wyoming 110 0.5 51% 1-Oct at Bowling Green 60 -21.5 11% 8-Oct Toledo 58 -14.7 20% 15-Oct at Ohio 95 -12.9 23% 22-Oct at Western Michigan 65 -20.6 12% 29-Oct Miami (Ohio) 107 -0.3 49% 8-Nov at Ball State 101 -10.0 28% 16-Nov Northern Illinois 79 -10.9 26% 22-Nov Central Michigan 85 -8.4 31% Projected wins: 4.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk -47.3% (126) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 120 / 119 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -13 / -5.6 2015 TO Luck/Game -3.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 77% (78%, 75%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 2.1 (-1.1)

10. I mean ... it's not impossible

The kindness of the injury bug will dictate so much. If you look at the starting 22 and nothing else, you see a high-ceiling quarterback, an explosive running back, at least one reliable receiver, five senior starters on the offensive line, a high-caliber defensive front four, two exciting linebackers, and a secondary loaded with experience.

And if you look at the potential second string, you see almost nothing but unproven freshmen and sophomores. If the injury bug bites hard, or if players like Shaq Vann or Eddie Daugherty suffer through a sophomore slump, then Creighton's third year will look a lot like his second: glimpses of early potential foiled by a failing depth chart.

A normal or small number of injuries, however, could lead to an interesting season. Projected 121st, EMU is given between a 26 and 51 percent chance of winning in six games and has a gimme against MVSU to start the year. If health and experience lead to a third-year step forward, and EMU ends up more in the No. 90-110 range, that could flip EMU's win projection from 4.0 to close to 5.5 or so. Add in some close-game luck or strong bounces, and that's a bowl campaign.

I really, really want to predict that. Don't you? Aside from New Mexico State's, there is not a more long-suffering fanbase in FBS than EMU's, and every fanbase deserves happiness occasionally.