Aaron David Miller is vice president for new initiatives and a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. His forthcoming book is titled The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t Have (and Doesn’t Want) Another Great President.

Can a perpetually combative man who—despite his career successes (or perhaps because of them)—sees life as a series of fights to be won, scores to be evened and counterpunches to be delivered, be trusted to shape the foreign policy of the world’s most consequential power?

Donald Trump, who last week finally clinched the Republican nomination for president, may be correct: The world is often cruel and unforgiving, filled with threats and challenges that require toughness and resolve. In his 2007 book Think Big, Trump described his worldview in utterly uncompromising terms: “The world is a vicious, brutal place. It’s a place where people are looking to kill you, if not physically, then mentally. … People are looking to put you down, especially if you are on top.”


His lifelong response has been to put everyone else down, or at least anyone who challenges him. Call it Trump’s “counterpunch” approach; it’s one he’s articulated again and again in different forms and forums, and it’s plainly central to his worldview: When someone hits you, you hit them back 10 times harder. Nor is he likely to alter that attitude, as his own campaign manager, Paul Manafort, suggested last week: “You don’t change Donald Trump,” he told Howard Fineman of the Huffington Post.

But the world is a place in which America probably can’t afford to be in a constant state of counterattack, and where every challenge isn’t a nail that requires a hammer. In such a world, the application of honey is often as important as vinegar; nuance, restraint and prudence matter, too. So history has taught us. In October 1962, when his generals and others pushed for military strikes on Cuba that might have provoked a Soviet military response, President John F. Kennedy’s patience bought time for a peaceful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis, possibly preventing a nuclear war. I’ve personally seen up close how restraint can be the best course of action: As a diplomat specializing in the Middle East under George H.W. Bush, I saw the president wisely avoid invading Iraq after his lightening success in pushing Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait. A decade later, Bush’s son chose otherwise.

Manafort says that Trump—who will be the first major-party nominee without any political experience since Wendell Willkie—is still eager to learn. And perhaps Trump is a better performer and stage actor than even we make him out to be. What if hiding behind the bullying, the braggadocio and the bluster, there lies a real president in waiting, calm, preternaturally prudent and wise just waiting to get out and to assume his place in the pantheon of presidential greats?

To date, though, that hope exists only in a galaxy far, far away. Here on planet Earth the only evidence we have is Trump’s words over the course of a long career and others articulated more recently in a campaign about to reach the one-year mark.

True, as Trump has it, large parts of the world are forlorn Hobbesian-like places where life is brutish and short. Sectarian, tribal and religious confrontations in Syria and Iraq, Libya and Yemen; humanitarian crises in Congo and Sudan. And there are actors and agents too in this world—ISIL al Qaeda affiliates; Boko Haram, al-Shabab—that seek to inflict galactic harm on America and its allies. Evil in today’s world is very real and threatening.

But a president must carefully choose his fights, as we’ve learned throughout American history—and he (or she) really can’t afford to create new conflicts where there are none today. In that spirit, let’s carefully measure what Trump has said over the years against how the world really works.

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“I love getting even. I get screwed all the time. I go after people, and you know what? People do not play around with me as much as they do with others. They know that if they do, they are in for a big fight. Always get even.” (Think Big)

Trump’s notion that the world is composed of rivals looking for the mental kill, the equivalent of the psych-out or put-down, may work on the campaign trail and in real estate negotiations. But not on the international stage. Trump has already responded publicly to David Cameron’s criticism of his ban on Muslims in somewhat the same way the candidate once entered into a monthslong feud with Megyn Kelly, by saying, “It looks like we’re not going to have a very good relationship.” And that’s America’s closest ally he’s talking about. Far from making a president appear tough and resolute, personalizing these issues appears petty and juvenile and creates a kind of kindergarten playground mentality.

Moreover, the world these days isn’t just divided neatly into friends you consider faultlessly loyal and enemies to get even with. America deals with any number of countries, including China and Russia, where both competition and cooperation are likely to be the order of the day.

And should Trump actually become president his kill-or-be-killed view of the world won’t much help him or the United States. On one hand he blasts the Chinese for currency manipulation and “raping” the United States; but on the other sees Beijing as the only way to influence North Korea. Interestingly enough, despite Vladimir Putin’s efforts to oppose U.S. policies in Ukraine and Syria, Trump is carrying on an unusual bromance with the Russian leader, a man he claims he can deal with. Given Russia’s determination to protect its interests, an intemperate and easily slighted President Trump may quickly find himself frustrated by Putin’s risk-ready policies. And how would he then feeling betrayed deal with the man in Moscow. The same holds for our imperfect Middle East allies, notably Saudi Arabia where Trump has already lambasted Riyadh for disrespecting the president on his last visit and threatened to stop buying Saudi oil if they don’t step up the fight against the Islamic State.

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“… When somebody tries to sucker-punch me, when they’re after my ass, I push back a hell of a lot harder than I was pushed in the first place. If somebody tries to push me around, he’s going to pay a price. Those people don’t come back for seconds.”(Playboy interview, 1990)

Trump’s notion that the only way to deal with those who attack him is to hit back harder has clearly worked in the debates. And despite the doubters, it may also work in a general election against Hillary Clinton. Yet, the idea that you generate respect by pummeling the other guy harder than he hit you and in the process create deterrence doesn’t necessarily translate into doing business with America’s allies and adversaries.

Trump has threatened to impose this kind of logic in the fight against the Islamic State for which he has proposed killing the group’s family members; torturing terrorists; and “bombing the hell out of them.” In his first major foreign policy address this spring, Trump proclaimed that in his presidency ISIL would magically be gone “very, very fast.” Not only are these tactics unlikely to achieve that end; they could make matters far worse. And since Trump has already created expectations that once he’s president, ISIL will be destroyed, he’s ensured himself a credibility gap. That violates the first rule of the presidency: Say what you mean and mean what you say. The use of disproportionate force to deter, preempt and prevent can in fact work; but it’s a situational response, not some generic fix to be applied across the board, particularly in asymmetric situations where the use of force without careful calibration between means and ends and without regard to the day before or after can have costly results.

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“Be paranoid. I know this observation doesn’t make any of us sound very good, but let’s face the fact that it’s possible that even your best friend wants to steal your spouse and your money.”(How To Get Rich, 2004)

The notion that your friends and enemies are out to get you makes for very bad foreign policy leadership. You would think that for a man with Trump’s successes, the world would be his oyster, not a conspiracy of forces and agents arrayed to screw him at every turn. It may well be that his foreign policy slogan of putting “America First” flows from his own life lessons in business that unless you take care of yourself as the number one priority and are always on guard against your competitors your interests will suffer. Life for Trump appears to be very much a zero sum where’s there’s only one clear winner. The fact that Trump believes you have much to fear from your so-called friends may well explain his aversion to free-riding allies whom he believes don’t pay their way or carry their responsibilities. With his suspicious view of life, it seems he can’t calculate that allies actually can serve U.S. interests too even while the bottom line financial obligations may well be unbalanced. In international politics, money isn’t the only currency. And if Trump really does believe the U.S. is stretched too thin, allies—however imperfect—will be needed to carry the load. A measure of trust even with a verify clause is better than constant suspicion, let alone paranoia.

The best presidents are those who have their own demons under control, are emotionally intelligent and aware; and are comfortable in their own skins, able to endure and rise above the petulance, pettiness, and small-mindedness of political slights and personal grudges.

Foreign policy, in other words, isn’t a real estate deal; a television show; or a personalized game of gotcha or chicken you play with America’s friends or enemies. It’s complicated business that confronts all presidents with a terrifying set of contingencies, many of which are beyond anyone’s capacity to control. Familiarity with an atlas, common sense and little knowledge history helps too. So will a first-rate team of advisers. (Full disclosure: I’ve worked and voted for both Republican and Democratic presidents and am not associated with anyone’s campaign.)

Trump has demonstrated many things over the course of his career, including cleverness, media savvy, business acumen and of late, an uncanny capacity to intuit politically much of the country’s mood. But what he has not yet revealed-- and may never—are the makings of a president with the judgment, prudence, wisdom, curiosity, and strength of character to shepherd the nation through dangerous and uncertain times.

Let’s hope that Donald Trump is in fact learning.