In seven days Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko will be transferred to a Russian penal colony to begin serving a 22-year sentence for alleged complicity in the killing of two journalists.

Judge Leonid Stepanenko’s guilty verdict was in many ways a predictable finale to this highly contested trial. The defiant Savchenko has become a national hero for Ukraine, a political martyr for the west, and a severe annoyance for Russia.

When she was arrested in July 2014 she was an officer fighting as part of a volunteer battalion near Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. Back then her detention may have made some political sense for Russia, which was seeking to consolidate power in the rebel-held territories.



But as the case has evolved its political value to the Kremlin has become less clear. Within minutes of the sentencing Ukrainian and western officials demanded Savchenko’s release, at the very least as part of a prisoner exchange under the Minsk agreement that ended the conflict.

So far, however, the Kremlin has shown no sign it would support such a deal, despite officials on both sides raising the possibility.

Exchange

It took the judge two days to read his 200-page verdict. Finally, after several breaks, he declared that the “rehabilitation of Savchenko” was “only possible if she is isolated from society”.

The Ukrainian has stated on multiple occasions that she has no intention of appealing against the sentence, no matter how harsh it is.

She has declared that she will take her hunger strike “to the end”, denying both food and water to protest against her sentence.

It seems the only way for her to avoid jail would be via a prisoner exchange, although so far the only detailed suggestion as to how this might work has come from the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko.

In an online statement after the verdict, Poroshenko suggested he would hand over “two Russian citizens” detained in Ukraine in exchange for Savchenko. He did not name the detainees, but government sources in Kiev confirmed he was referring to Yevgeny Yerofeyev and Alexander Alexandrov, two Russian servicemen captured fighting in eastern Ukraine while “on leave” from the army.

A rally in support of Nadezhda Savchenko in Kiev. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

According to Poroshenko, Vladimir Putin had promised to hand Savchenko over to Ukrainian authorities at the conclusion of her trial.

But the Russian president’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters that he had no knowledge of any such agreement. He said only Putin could rule on the exchange. “I can’t say now what his decision will be,” Peskov said.

Russia could well decide to place conditions on a deal. Earlier this month the Justice Ministry told the Vedomosti newspaper Ukraine would have to recognise the legitimacy of the sentence before any deal could be struck.

A government source in Kiev said this was “difficult at the current time”, adding that Kiev was also concerned Savchenko may be obliged to apply for pardon to Putin. She will almost certainly reject such a condition.

Sanctions

Savchenko’s defence team anticipated that the west would respond to a guilty verdict with a set of new sanctions, but analysts believe these are not on the table at the moment.

“The question of prolonging current sanctions is much more important now, especially since Moscow is campaigning for lifting them,” says international affairs expert Vladimir Frolov.

Savchenko’s conviction, he says, might lower the probability of lifting or softening the current sanctions. “It will be that much harder for the EU to do that following the conviction, and the United States isn’t even considering it,” he said.

Poroshenko will likely step up his push for sanctions against Russian individuals involved in the prosecution. According to Taras Berezovets, a Kiev-based political analyst, the Ukrainian government has already compiled a “Savchenko list” and passed it to the chair of the European Commission.

“Savchenko’s case is an instrument with which Ukraine can apply pressure to Russia,” he says. “The fact that the west sympathises with Savchenko’s story, helps Ukraine.”

At the same time, Poroshenko is under pressure to close the deal, Berezovets says: “He wants Savchenko released, that way it would count as his personal political victory.”

However, a source close to the Kremlin suggested it was unlikely Savchenko would be released any time soon.

A version of this article first appeared on The Moscow Times