(Photo Courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports)

There are a lot of different philosophies for the NFL Draft when it comes to quarterback-needy teams like the Buffalo Bills. Some want them to trade up for one of the top quarterback prospects, be it Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, or Josh Allen. Others think they should stand pat and pick whatever quarterback falls to their 12th or 22nd overall pick, be it Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph. Still others think they should use their plethora of high draft picks to fill their other holes and take a flier on a day-two or day-three prospect like Luke Falk or Kyle Lauletta.

While I’ve watched all of them play, I won’t pretend to be an expert on any of them. I can’t tell you which one of these prospects is going to be a star. However, using historical data, I can tell you where a team needs to pick a quarterback in order to have a good chance of finding the face of their franchise for years to come.

Using statistics from ESPN and Pro Football Reference, I’ve compiled a list of every quarterback drafted from 2001 to 2011 (you can find it here). A few notes before we get started:

I didn’t include any data from quarterbacks drafted after 2011. These players are still too young to be fairly evaluated.

I wanted to pick one statistic that would capture the value of a quarterback to a franchise. After some thought, I settled on games started. This is limited in that it doesn’t distinguish between a decent quarterback like Joe Flacco and a great one like Aaron Rodgers. However, it does show who has provided stability at the quarterback position, something that the Bills badly need.

I used an admittedly arbitrary system to categorize quarterbacks. “Franchise” denotes a player that has started at least 96 games, or the equivalent of six full seasons in the NFL. This does lead to some mischaracterizations (I don’t think any of us would argue that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a franchise quarterback), but in general, it seems to be an effective system.

Players whose names are in bolded text were active in 2017. Of these, only Sam Bradford seems to be in a position to move into the “franchise” category.

Now, let’s dive into the findings.

1. Of the 141 quarterbacks drafted, 15 fit our definition of franchise quarterbacks.

That’s a success rate of just over 10%. Clearly, the odds of any random quarterback in the draft being the guy are very low.

2. Only two franchise quarterbacks were selected after the 32nd overall pick.

Outside of the first round, the odds of selecting a franchise quarterback are almost insurmountable. In this span, the only two quarterbacks identified were the famously average Andy Dalton, and the illustrious Harvard grad himself, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Just 2% of quarterbacks picked beyond pick No. 32 were franchise guys, and if you take out Fitz, that drops down to 1%. In other words, counting on your second or third-round pick to save your team is a recipe for disaster.

3. Five franchise quarterbacks were picked between picks 5 and 32

This is definitely a better success rate than it was outside of the first round, but it’s still not great. Just 25% of these quarterbacks were franchise guys. Interestingly, they were scattered around fairly evenly. They came at picks 11, 11, 18, 24, and 32.

4. Eight franchise quarterbacks were taken in the top four picks

That’s right – more than half of the franchise-changing players like the one the Bills are searching for were found in this tiny, four-pick window. The likelihood of a top-four pick turning into a franchise quarterback shoots all the way up to 62%. If you need a quarterback, this is the place to look.

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. Shortly after the Bills’ season ended, general manager Brandon Beane said that his biggest job as GM was to find a franchise quarterback. If he is truly committed to doing so, he should trade into the top four and get his guy, no matter the cost.