Michigan State jumped Oklahoma in the final College Football Playoff committee ranking, meaning the Spartans will play the SEC champion Alabama Crimson Tide in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Almost immediately after the matchup was announced on an overly long ESPN special, Alabama was deemed to be a nine-point favorite by the Vegas sports books.

Alabama opens as a 9-point favorite over Michigan State, per LVSuperbook. — Cecil Hurt (@CecilHurt) December 6, 2015

That’s a lot of points! It’s very likely the gap closes in the coming weeks, but as far as opening lines go, Alabama (-9) is borderline ridiculous. Undefeated Clemson, meanwhile, is a 2.5-point underdog against Oklahoma.

Some fans would argue that Michigan State has a more impressive résumé than Alabama and should be favored in the Cotton Bowl in the first place, but there’s no reason to believe that the Crimson Tide are an obvious favorite. Alabama’s defense is phenomenal, but the Tide are ultra-reliant on running back Derrick Henry (who might just be the best player in the nation, to be fair) — but the Spartans have a top-15 run defense this season.

After all the Spartans have accomplished in 2015 — wins on the road in the Big House and Ohio Stadium, along with an epic game-winning drive to seal a spot in the Playoff against Iowa — it just doesn’t seem likely that the Cotton Bowl will be a blowout. Michigan State has allowed 16 points or fewer in its last four games, and the Spartans’ lone loss was by a single point.

Even if you’re an Alabama megafan and you’re 100% sure the Crimson Tide will win, it would be risky to bet on Alabama’s shaky offense. MSU-Alabama is going to be a slugfest, and it’s entirely possible the game comes down to which team makes the most field goals.