Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh 12/19/13





Prediction: Pittsburgh wins by a goal or more.





Stats

Shot averages:

Minnesota Averages 27.6 shots per game, but only gives up 26.2 shots per game

Pittsburgh averages 31 shots per game and only gives up 27 shots per game





Minnesota will take around 27.3 shots

Pittsburgh will take around 28.6 shots.

While this statistic would seem to favor Pittsburgh, we also have to take into account that the Penguins are playing, and therefore taking more shots, in the Eastern confrence. The Eastern conference is significantly worse than the Western conference at this point in the season, so it follows that teams in the Eastern conference generally allow more shots, meaning that Pittsburgh’s shots per game statistic is slightly inflated.





The Edge still goes to Pittsburgh in the shot department, but it’s a small edge because there isn’t much to split these two teams.





Special Teams

Pittsburgh goes on the Powerplay about 3.3 times per game, and is shorthanded about 3 times per game.

Minnesota goes on the powerplay about 3 times per game, and is shorthanded about 3.25 times per game.





Pittsburgh will have roughly 3.15 powerplays

Minnesota will have roughly 3 powerplays





Pittsburg has the best powerplay percentage of any team in the NHL at 26.9%

Minnesota’s Powerplay percentage isn’t too shabby either, seventh in the league at 20.9%

Pittsburgh’s penalty kill, at 86.9% is far better than Minnesota’s 78.6%

The Edge on Special teams goes by far to Pittsburgh. They will score about 24.15% of a goal every time the go on the powerplay against MN, and if they average get 3.15 powerplays, they have a 76% chance of scoring on the powerplay.

Minnesota however, only has a 17% Chance of scoring on any one of their powerplays, of which they are only likely to generate three, meaning that they have only a 51% chance of scoring on the powerplay.





Closing Thoughts: As I acknowledged in the shot stat column, the Eastern conference is significantly worse than the Western conference. Any advantage this might seem to give the Wild is cancelled out due to the Wild’s poor play on the road. The Wild have played 19 home games and won 12. On the Road they have played 17 games and won 3. This is a major issue, and a major part of the reason I predicted a loss tonight.

The Wild can win if they start playing the same hockey on the road as they do at home, and if they stay out of the Penalty box. I don’t see both of these things happening, so Pittsburgh wins by a goal or more.















