Good luck to everyone playing for a playoff berth tonight.

I’m down to the last day in 3 of my leagues. In one I’d need a 10-2 or better win against the team in that 4th and last spot to boot him from it, but 10-2 is a tall order any week, especially against a team with a better record. It doesn’t help that for strategic reasons the Yankees swapped CC Sabathia up to Sunday and moved Michael Pineda back to Monday, losing my 2nd start for Pineda till next week. My opponent and I are at 9-3. Two of the Three cats he is ahead in are K’s and W’s. Pineda was one of my only two starters going tomorrow, and now I have only one trying to make up K’s and W’s. That move by the Yanks may have cost me the playoff berth (FAAB League so next time I can pick up a SP is Sunday night FAAB draft.)

Don’t they know we are in our playoffs now? How can they do this?

It happened to me last year where I was in first place most of the season, only to have the 2nd place team catch me during the Sunday night game on the eve of our playoffs. I still got in, but drew a match against the top seed in the first round instead of an easier match up. I lost that first round match when two of my best starting pitchers were pushed back or shut down because of innings limits on non contending teams. Six months of being in first place ended in a matter of days. The joys of Head to Head. I’ll let you know how my 10-2 quest goes.

Some call it Irony, I call it Lunacy that after months of preparation, and a whole 6 month season of playing, some H to H championships will be decided at the end of the most volatile and chaotic week of the season. That moves the needle farther from skill and more towards luck. Isn’t that what all our other rules are designed to avoid? If you are in a H to H League and your championship week(s) ends on the last day of the MLB season, petition your LM to move the whole playoff structure up one or two weeks. You will lose a week or two of your own regular season, but avoid most of the fantasy unfriendly chaos that can derail a championship. Besides, aren’t you pretty tired of the grind by then anyway? Wait, where did you hear me say anything about football?

As with the Closer Rollercoaster, we can complain about things out of our control as a victim, or we can draft a plan B to prepare ourselves for the inevitable. I would not

wait until an MLB team announces a pitcher shut down or skips a start to look for a replacement. The other playoff teams, or contenders if ROTO, are looking for the best pitchers on the wire also. You don’t want to be stuck starting Jered Weaver with a championship at stake. (Sorry Jered, I do remember the time you won me a championship, but that was a long time ago.) Sadly, MLB managers and front office folks really could care less about your fantasy team. Why, I don’t know, but it is true.

The one exception is Buck Showalter. Some people think he is a genius. I just think he is the most logical person in the universe after Mr. Spock. On the Yankee Pre-Game Show the other day, Susan Waldman interviewed Buck and asked him about innings limits for Dylan Bundy. I was driving so I don’t have this exact, but he very simply answered that they purposely limited his innings early in the year and eased him into the rotation gradually. They did his innings limit in reverse so they can have him finish the season with them and not on the bench when they need him for a playoff run. Either Buck is confident his team is a contender, or, he owns Bundy on his Dynasty Team.

So, what is the plan Joe?

First you need to take inventory of your rostered starters and when they are scheduled. A start getting pushed back from Sunday to Monday is not so important in the MLB, or even Roto, but could scuttle your season in H to H. Are any of them shut down/skip candidates? The most likely are pitchers who are either very young or coming back from injuries and have already eclipsed their innings pitched from last season. They are even more likely to be shut down if the team is not playing for anything, or if Scott Boras is the pitcher’s agent. I’m only half-joking there. (See 2015 Matt Harvey) Other candidates are pitchers who have been nursing injuries, nicks and scratches or are just run down, perhaps losing velocity or command. Read as much as you can on those pitchers from the team’s websites or that team’s Reddit Community to see who is scheduled for a reduction in playing time. If a pitcher is on the list the team’s fans will be talking about it.

Here is a pretty good article from pitcherlist.com that outlines 2016 starting pitchers that may be on innings limits and projects the date they will hit it. Some, like Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez have already been limited by optioning him, though they will bring him back soon. But there are some pretty big names on that list. Are you counting on Jose Fernandez for the next 4 weeks? pitcherlist.com: The Mega Innings Shutdown Article

Now scour your wire, using the same analysis you always use, but also considering the shut down factor. You don’t want to waste a move on a player who doesn’t end up playing. If your success hinges on making one final start, it might be a good idea to avoid any pitcher scheduled for a Sunday. Even if he is not a shut down candidate, things happen. A rain out could move him back to Monday. They may shuffle the rotation (Thanks, Yanks) to get a look at some September call-ups, etc. If you have a large bench and/or no limits to how many SP you can roster, make room for a couple of Plan B’s. Once you are in the playoffs there is no longer a need for any RP’s or speculative plays on your bench. Fill those spots with SP. This may sound odd, but a mediocre innings eater on a contender may be more valuable right now than a studly young phenom on a non contender. A QS from a warm body will score you more than a DNP, in most cases anyway. Finally if you are only allowed a certain number of starters, you might want to make some hard decisions as to whether or not you want to take a chance that an obvious shut down candidate gets to pitch one more game. Long term keeper leagues may not have that luxury, but in my world, I do anything that will increase my chances to win now.

Trivia Question: What journeyman SP who switched leagues at the deadline pitched his first complete game since 2013 last week. Answer Below.

Lets do it: I’ll pick my favorites from the under 50% owned group, and I’ll discuss their September availability as one of the factors to compare. You will not see any two start recommendations this week. I didn’t see any outstanding ones plus the playoffs are fluid. Midweek you have to rethink your strategy anyway. If you want an opinion between any two or more email me at joseph.iannone021@gmail.com and I’ll give you my take. Or visit my thread on Reddit which is active all day Sunday on the fantasybaseball Sub Reddit.. Percentages listed are from Fantrax, so an over 50% owned pitcher might make the list if they are lower in ESPN, CBS, etc.

SPOT STARTS –

Anibal Sanchez, SP, DET (53% owned): @ KC, SAT: I went out on a limb last week and recommended Anibal for his 2 start week. He came through in the first game giving up 3 runs on 6 hits with no walks and 1 HR in 7 innings for a QS and W against the Twins. He has a date against the Angels at home today, and then gets the Royals in KC Saturday next week. Last time he faced the Royals, 2 weeks ago, he threw 7 shutout innings with one hit and 2 walks vs 8 K’s. The Royals are hitting .222 the past week and .246 for the last 2 weeks. They have been winning lately but not with outstanding offensive output, and are hitting .257 for the season vs righties, or 20 points lower than vs lefties. Following a trend from earlier in the season, it seems whatever SP I highlight in a family photo with his wife goes out and has a good week. So, we are bringing her back for an encore. Hopefully her post season numbers are good too. Like I said in my intro, this time of year I lean on the vets. Last week I said, “ He has a .327 Babip , the highest it has ever been since 2007, and a FIP of a whopping 5.06. His 1.7 HR/9 rate over the past two seasons is also his worst after a .90 lifetime HR/9, but his GB/FB rate is also by far the worst of his career at .63, meaning nearly 3 times as many batted balls are going skyward or line drives. No one can have success at that rate. His ERA over the past month is 3.60 with a 1.04 WHIP” . Those numbers are still the same, but trending positive. I still think he had physical issues for the better part of a year but seems to have found himself again.

I went out on a limb last week and recommended Anibal for his 2 start week. He came through in the first game giving up 3 runs on 6 hits with no walks and 1 HR in 7 innings for a QS and W against the Twins. He has a date against the Angels at home today, and then gets the Royals in KC Saturday next week. Last time he faced the Royals, 2 weeks ago, he threw 7 shutout innings with one hit and 2 walks vs 8 K’s. The Royals are hitting .222 the past week and .246 for the last 2 weeks. They have been winning lately but not with outstanding offensive output, and are hitting .257 for the season vs righties, or 20 points lower than vs lefties. Following a trend from earlier in the season, it seems whatever SP I highlight in a family photo with his wife goes out and has a good week. So, we are bringing her back for an encore. Hopefully her post season numbers are good too. Like I said in my intro, this time of year I lean on the vets. Last week I said, “ . Those numbers are still the same, but trending positive. I still think he had physical issues for the better part of a year but seems to have found himself again. Daniel Norris, SP, DET (48% owned) Vs CHW, TUE: I like Norris the more I see of him, and have already picked him up for next week, assuming I’ll be packing my suitcase for the playoffs. He has a 2.91 ERA since being called up and re-inserted into the rotation. Sometimes young pitchers just need a few weeks at AAA to regroup and get their heads together remembering what got them here in the first place. The White Sox do hit lefties better than righties, but they also hit worse on the road than at home. Besides, any guy who shaves with a hatchet……

I like Norris the more I see of him, and have already picked him up for next week, assuming I’ll be packing my suitcase for the playoffs. He has a 2.91 ERA since being called up and re-inserted into the rotation. Sometimes young pitchers just need a few weeks at AAA to regroup and get their heads together remembering what got them here in the first place. The White Sox do hit lefties better than righties, but they also hit worse on the road than at home. Besides, any guy who shaves with a hatchet…… Tom Koehler, SP, MIA (66% owned) @ NYM, TUE: He is 66% owned and doesn’t belong here no? Sure, whatever, but if you are in the other 34% of leagues that he is on the wire and need reliable SP help for the playoffs/stretch run, here is your man. He is on a current 7 game Quality Start Streak, which is his 2nd such streak of the season, sporting a 3.71 ERA over that stretch. His YTD 3.85 ERA (supported by a 4.09 FIP) ,.81 HR/9 and 7.14 K/9 are all tied for his career bests, though his 3.80 BB/9 is a career worst, explaining his career worst WHIP. His 9 wins also project him to a career best there. He gets the Mets who seem like a confused team this season. The Mets are hitting .238 Vs Righties and .233 at Citifield. Koehler will not win your strikeouts category, but will help everywhere else.

He is 66% owned and doesn’t belong here no? Sure, whatever, but if you are in the other 34% of leagues that he is on the wire and need reliable SP help for the playoffs/stretch run, here is your man. He is on a current 7 game Quality Start Streak, which is his 2nd such streak of the season, sporting a 3.71 ERA over that stretch. His YTD 3.85 ERA (supported by a 4.09 FIP) ,.81 HR/9 and 7.14 K/9 are all tied for his career bests, though his 3.80 BB/9 is a career worst, explaining his career worst WHIP. His 9 wins also project him to a career best there. He gets the Mets who seem like a confused team this season. The Mets are hitting .238 Vs Righties and .233 at Citifield. Koehler will not win your strikeouts category, but will help everywhere else. Andrew Cashner, SP, MIA (50% owned) @ CLE, FRI: On paper, this is not a good matchup. The Indians are hitting .293 at home and .260 against righties. While they have been hot lately, they have hit .254 for the past two weeks. Cashner has given up 1 run or less in 4 of his 6 starts with Miami, but also has no wins due to only 4 runs of support in his last 3 starts. I always liked Cashner, and am glad he seems to be turning it around, but he may never reach the top of the rotation potential he showed in the minors. This is crunch time though and I tend to trust the vets.

On paper, this is not a good matchup. The Indians are hitting .293 at home and .260 against righties. While they have been hot lately, they have hit .254 for the past two weeks. Cashner has given up 1 run or less in 4 of his 6 starts with Miami, but also has no wins due to only 4 runs of support in his last 3 starts. I always liked Cashner, and am glad he seems to be turning it around, but he may never reach the top of the rotation potential he showed in the minors. This is crunch time though and I tend to trust the vets. Kendall Graveman, SP, OAK (55% owned) @ HOU, TUE: I think I can call Graveman a vet now. I can’t call him a stud, but you are not going to find a stud on the wire now. 10 of his last 13 starts have been Quality Starts, and he has a quietly effective K/BB of 5.2/2.3. So, with few walks, and he keeps the ball on the ground, (1.12 GB/FB, 1.1 HR/9) he is a perfect play in Houston. The Astros are the most prolific team in the MLB when it comes to the swing and miss, so he may even outdo his own K rates on Tuesday. He better keep the ball down though as those hitters don’t miss mistakes.

I think I can call Graveman a vet now. I can’t call him a stud, but you are not going to find a stud on the wire now. 10 of his last 13 starts have been Quality Starts, and he has a quietly effective K/BB of 5.2/2.3. So, with few walks, and he keeps the ball on the ground, (1.12 GB/FB, 1.1 HR/9) he is a perfect play in Houston. The Astros are the most prolific team in the MLB when it comes to the swing and miss, so he may even outdo his own K rates on Tuesday. He better keep the ball down though as those hitters don’t miss mistakes. Matt Wisler, SP, ATL (36% owned) VS SD, TUE: Remember him? I do, I wrote about him a lot in April and May when he teased us with his awesome control and ability to keep the ball on the ground. Then he hit the proverbial 2nd year pitcher wall in June and July, two months we would both like to forget, and got a ticket to AAA. Like Norris above though, Wisler came back for his 2nd chance with something to prove, and that was that he belongs here. In his 1st start back he went 8 innings, tying a season high, with 2 hits, 1 ER, 3 walks, no HR and 4 K’s and the ever valuable W. Like most of the SP on this list he is not going to win your league ERA title any time soon, but he does not walk many or give up a lot of HR. More good news: He gets the Padres at home. The Padres are hitting .210 over the past 2 weeks, and .223 over the past month. They hit .229 vs righties, and .230 away. No brainer, right?

Remember him? I do, I wrote about him a lot in April and May when he teased us with his awesome control and ability to keep the ball on the ground. Then he hit the proverbial 2nd year pitcher wall in June and July, two months we would both like to forget, and got a ticket to AAA. Like Norris above though, Wisler came back for his 2nd chance with something to prove, and that was that he belongs here. In his 1st start back he went 8 innings, tying a season high, with 2 hits, 1 ER, 3 walks, no HR and 4 K’s and the ever valuable W. Like most of the SP on this list he is not going to win your league ERA title any time soon, but he does not walk many or give up a lot of HR. More good news: He gets the Padres at home. The Padres are hitting .210 over the past 2 weeks, and .223 over the past month. They hit .229 vs righties, and .230 away. No brainer, right? Ivan Nova, PIT (51% owned) Vs MIL, SA: The famous change of scenery strikes again. In 4 starts since coming to the NL, Nova is 3-0 and pitched his first complete game since 2013 last week. He gets a Mil team hitting .219 the past two weeks, .243 vs righties.

The famous change of scenery strikes again. In 4 starts since coming to the NL, Nova is 3-0 and He gets a Mil team hitting .219 the past two weeks, .243 vs righties.

NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART: I’d consider starting any of these SP this week!

Joel De La Cruz, SP, ATL VS SD, TUE : See the Wisler analysis from above. All applies here too.

: See the Wisler analysis from above. All applies here too. Luke Weaver, SP,STL (37% owned) @ MIL, WEDS. Mil hitting .219 the past two weeks, .243 vs righties.

Mil hitting .219 the past two weeks, .243 vs righties. Jose Urena, SP, MIA (9% owned) @ NYM, THU.

Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL (42% owned) @ PHI FRI: PHI is hitting .238 vs righties and .228 at home. Folty’s last start was 7.2 IP with 5 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 Walk and 6 K’s.

DO NOT START!

Braden Shipley SP, AZ (42% owned) @ COL, FRI: 1.7 HR/9, .71 GB/FB, 4.5% HR rate, 5/4 K/BB ratio, oh and it is in the Mountains. Need more reasons? Didn’t think so.

***Two Starts***Wade Miley, SP, BAL(41% owned) VS TOR, MON & @ NYY, SUN: Tor is better vs lefties and the Yanks have hit .270 for the past month vs lefties. Good enough for me too.

Chad Green, NYY (41% owned) @ BAL, FRI: Chad looks like a keeper, but don’t start him this week. His 10.0/2.7 K/BB is MLB worthy now but be careful.

Luis Cessa, SP, NYY (17% owned) @ KC WED: He is similar to Green in that he seems to have made his mark in NY, and it is easy to love all things NY right now as they build the new Evil Empire. I don’t think he is ready, and his 5.73 FIP shows a “correction” looming.

Closer Merry-Go-Round: Like last week, so much has happened among the closer ranks that I’ll discuss them in a separate article soon.

*”CLEW” = Closer En Waiting

** IRS + H = Inherited Runners stranded plus Holds

See you next week. Thanks for reading.

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