Research finds more than 80% of reserves should stay in the ground to avoid dangerous climate change, just as Australia expands production

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

Australia is pressing ahead with huge new coalmining projects, just as a new study has calculated that more than 80% of the world’s current coal reserves must remain in the ground to avoid dangerous climate change.



The research, by the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, found that globally a third of all oil reserves, half of all known gas deposits and 82% of coal capacity would have to remain unused by 2050 if the world was to remain within an internationally agreed limit of 2C warming compared with pre-industrial times.

The report found the world needed to stay within a carbon dioxide “budget” of 1,100 gigatonnes emitted between 2011 and 2050 to have at least a 50% chance to avoid more than 2C warming.

That level of warming is considered to have highly damaging consequences for human health, coastal infrastructure, food production and endangered species.

Despite its commitment to the 2C warming limit, Australia is pushing ahead with a massive escalation in its coal output, with prime minister Tony Abbott declaring in October that coal is “good for humanity” while warning against any “demonisation” of the fossil fuel.

Nine new coal projects are earmarked for the Galilee Basin region of central Queensland, producing a combined 330m tonnes a year at capacity.

This coal, destined for export to countries such as China and India, would produce an estimated 705m tonnes of CO2 when burned – substantially more than Australia’s entire annual greenhouse gas emissions of 542m tonnes.

Several international financial institutions have rejected funding the largest of the Galilee Basin mines, Adani’s Carmichael project, but the Queensland government has stepped in to provide taxpayers’ money for construction, citing the jobs the mine would create.

Tim Buckley, the director of energy finance studies at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said the Australian government’s energy policies “fly in the face” of the need to avoid digging up the vast majority of known coal reserves.

“Rather than acknowledge the problem and transition energy sources over time, Tony Abbott is wedded to an idea of digging up coal as fast as possible before we’re not allowed to do so, which is a globally irresponsible position,” he told Guardian Australia.

“At the current price of thermal coal, the profit margin is zero. It makes no sense to sponsor these projects when the world is awash with coal. Why is Queensland providing millions of dollars to projects that aren’t commerciallly viable? Why does a project funded by a foreign billionaire need taxpayer subsidy?”

Buckley said Abbott’s argument that coal could lift people in developing countries out of poverty was “a highly embarrassing parroting of a coal industry PR campaign”.

Victoria McKenzie-McHarg, climate campaigner at the Australian Conservation Foundation, said Australia was “completely out of kilter” with the required action to avoid dangerous climate change.

“Tony Abbott and [Queensland premier] Campbell Newman have bent over backwards to push through coal projects and side with polluting mining companies over the need to protect Australians from climate change,” she said.

“If we become the greedy polluter, it puts unfair pressure on developing nations to cut their emissions when Australia has been one of the largest polluters for so long. We have a responsibility to clean up our act and take advantage of our real natural resources, such as wind and solar.”

But the Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) disputed the findings of the report, stating that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made it clear last year that carbon capture and storage technology would ensure that fossil fuels could remain widely used.

“The report’s apparent conclusions are at odds with a series of recent forecasts by a range of respected international bodies, including the International Energy Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” said Brendan Pearson, chief executive of the MCA.

“Those reports show that addressing climate change, eradicating energy poverty and a continued strong future for Australia’s energy sector are not mutually exclusive goals.”

Pearson said the International Energy Agency’s 2014 outlook showed that the global coal trade was set to grow by 40% by 2040, with Australia forecast to regain its ranking as the world’s top coal exporter by 2030.

According to the UCL institute’s paper, published in Nature, companies spent $670bn last year searching for and securing new fossil fuel deposits. The research was funded by the UK Energy Research Centre.