The New Orleans Saints are the big risers in this week's Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. The top three remain the same from last week, even though Baltimore, New England, and San Francisco all saw their ratings go down. (For Baltimore and New England, this was related to changes in opponent adjustments, not bad games of their own.) New Orleans moves up from No. 5 to No. 4 in full-season DVOA. The Saints were already No. 2 last week in weighted DVOA but their weighted rating goes up over five percentage points this week.

This is the first week where a game (Week 1) has fully fallen out of the weighted DVOA formula, and so the differences between full-season and weighted DVOA are getting bigger. The Patriots are down to fifth in weighted DVOA this week, with their offense falling all the way to 19th. The Tennessee Titans have moved up to 10th in weighted DVOA and sixth in weighted offense despite losing to Houston this week. The Texans move up three spots from 20th to 17th in full-season DVOA, but they rank only 21st in weighted DVOA. Some other major differences between full-season and weighted DVOA:

Cleveland's offense ranks 20th for the full season but 14th in weighted DVOA.

Indianapolis' offense ranks 17th for the full season but 22nd in weighted DVOA.

Green Bay's defense is 17th for the full season but 24th in weighted DVOA.

The Los Angeles Chargers defense is 21st for the full season but 15th in weighted DVOA.

The Ravens climb up our list of the best teams in DVOA history even though their rating dropped a little bit this week. It just turns out that some of the other great teams in history also saw their ratings drop a bit after Week 15. At this point, the Ravens rank below only four teams in history, one of which only played 12 games because of a strike (or at least, we're only counting 12 games).

BEST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH 14 GAMES, 1985-2019 Year Team W-L DVOA 1991 WAS 13-1 57.3% 2007 NE 14-0 56.3% 1985 CHI 13-1 54.1% 1987 SF* 10-2 47.0% 2019 BAL 12-2 40.8% 2013 SEA 12-2 40.4% 1995 SF 10-4 40.4% 2010 NE 12-2 40.1% 2012 NE 10-4 39.8% 2004 PIT 13-1 39.7% 1999 STL 12-2 38.9% 2005 IND 13-1 38.5% *only 12 games due to strike

Unfortunately -- for our historical tracking, not for Pittsburgh Steelers fans -- the Ravens are likely to sit starters in Week 17 if they win this week's rematch with Cleveland. That's likely to drop their place in the all-time rankings for the full season. Although you never know: the 1991 Redskins sat their starters for half of Week 17 and still came out as the best team we've ever measured.

The New England Patriots also move up a spot in our all-time list of best defenses through 14 games. There are now only three defenses ahead of them, although the 1986 Bears are likely to pass them before the end of the season.

BEST DEFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH 14 GAMES, 1985-2019 Year Team W-L DVOA 1991 PHI 9-5 -41.3% 2002 TB 11-3 -36.0% 1985 CHI 13-1 -33.1% 2019 NE 11-3 -31.0% 1986 CHI 12-2 -30.5% 1988 MIN 10-4 -29.6% 2008 BAL 9-5 -29.1% 2015 DEN 10-4 -28.0% 2008 PIT 11-3 -27.9% 1995 SF 10-4 -27.3% 2004 BUF 8-6 -26.4% 2012 CHI 8-6 -26.4%

But instead of writing in length about great defenses this week, I want to show you something about really bad defenses. Each week, I've posted a table showing just how bad the Miami Dolphins defense has been compared to defenses throughout DVOA history. I don't notice a lot of discussion in the general football media about how horrible the Dolphins defense has been this year. That's partly because the Dolphins offense has improved significantly since the early part of the season, so the Dolphins don't seem like a pathetic bunch of historic-level losers anymore. Hey, they've even won three games!

The Miami defense has not improved the way the offense has. It may look like they have if you look at the season splits in the FO Premium DVOA database, but essentially Miami has played one really good defensive game all year: Week 10, when they upset the Indianapolis Colts 16-12 and limited Colts backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to 18-of-39 for 204 yards with 3 interceptions. For Weeks 1-9, Miami has a defensive DVOA of 28.9%, the worst in the league for that period. For Weeks 11-15, Miami has a defensive DVOA of 31.2%, second worst in the league for that period behind Jacksonville.

Miami's run defense is bad: 29th in the league by DVOA. But what's really bad is Miami's pass defense. Miami is on pace for one of the two or three worst pass defense seasons in recent memory. Their current pass defense DVOA of 43.6% would be the second worst ever measured, trailing only the 2015 New Orleans Saints.

To compare the Dolphins with some of the other terrible pass defenses we've measured, I collected a few standard stats for each defense: net yards per pass, completion rate, interceptions, and sacks. For each stat, I've got a comparison of that team to the league average for that season. For example, the 2009 Lions allowed more net yards per pass than the 1996 Falcons, but compared to league average they allowed fewer net yards per pass. I've also got the run defense DVOA for each team for comparison purposes, as well as the average offense faced by DVOA and rank in the league.

Year Team W-L Pass

DVOA Run

DVOA Rk NY/P vs. NFL

Avg C% vs. NFL

Avg INT vs. NFL

Avg Sk vs. NFL

Avg Sched Rk 2015 NO 7-9 48.1% -2.4% 27 7.90 1.54 68.4% 5.4% 9 -4.5 31 -5.1 -3.1% 29 2019 MIA 3-11 43.6% 4.2% 29 7.55 1.23 64.1% 0.3% 12 +0.6 18 -17.1 -4.5% 29 1996 BAL 4-12 42.0% -6.4% 14 7.00 1.17 65.2% 7.6% 15 -3.1 30 -6.9 1.5% 7 1999 SF 4-12 41.7% -4.5% 18 7.36 1.51 60.8% 3.8% 13 -5.1 32 -8.3 1.2% 11 1996 ATL 3-13 38.0% 5.0% 27 7.19 1.36 62.3% 4.7% 6 -12.1 36 -0.9 -2.3% 25 2009 DET 2-14 36.5% -4.6% 17 7.44 1.27 68.1% 7.2% 9 -7.4 26 -8.4 -0.4% 18 1989 DAL 1-15 36.4% -5.6% 11 6.90 0.78 61.7% 5.9% 7 -13.0 29 -10.5 2.6% 2 2016 DET 9-7 36.2% -4.1% 19 6.91 0.54 72.7% 9.7% 10 -3.0 26 -8.9 -0.5% 20 2009 JAX 7-9 35.8% -13.6% 9 7.20 1.03 67.6% 6.8% 15 -1.4 14 -20.4 -2.0% 23 1991 LARM 3-13 35.4% -5.2% 14 7.86 1.89 59.7% 2.3% 11 -6.4 17 -18.4 4.1% 2 2000 MIN 11-5 35.2% 13.8% 28 6.36 0.52 63.2% 5.0% 8 -9.1 31 -8.7 -1.9% 20 1996 ARI 7-9 35.1% -1.1% 21 6.39 0.55 59.8% 2.2% 11 -7.1 28 -8.9 -3.7% 27

Remarkably, the 2019 Dolphins have (slightly) more interceptions than the NFL average, which is currently just 11.4 interceptions in 14 games. And the Dolphins are close to the league average in completion rate. What makes a big difference for the Dolphins is that a) they've struggled against an easy schedule of opposing offenses; b) they never sack the quarterback and c) they allow a lot of passing yardage.

* * * * *

Stats pages should now be updated through Week 15, including playoff odds, the FO Premium DVOA database and snap counts.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 15 weeks of 2019, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

RK TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFF.

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEF.

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 BAL 40.8% 1 44.6% 1 12-2 28.9% 1 -11.6% 5 0.3% 14 2 NE 33.3% 2 24.7% 5 11-3 1.9% 14 -31.0% 1 0.4% 13 3 SF 29.4% 3 26.2% 3 11-3 6.2% 9 -23.0% 2 0.2% 16 4 NO 28.6% 5 35.3% 2 11-3 19.0% 5 -6.3% 10 3.3% 3 5 KC 27.7% 4 25.7% 4 10-4 21.0% 3 -4.3% 11 2.4% 6 6 SEA 18.8% 6 19.5% 7 11-3 20.5% 4 0.2% 14 -1.6% 25 7 MIN 18.6% 7 20.0% 6 10-4 9.1% 7 -9.3% 6 0.2% 15 8 DAL 17.8% 8 14.5% 8 7-7 27.2% 2 4.9% 22 -4.5% 32 9 GB 8.2% 10 3.6% 12 11-3 10.1% 6 2.7% 17 0.8% 10 10 LAR 5.6% 9 3.2% 13 8-6 -2.0% 18 -8.4% 8 -0.8% 21 11 BUF 5.6% 11 11.8% 9 10-4 -6.6% 22 -13.3% 4 -1.1% 22 12 TEN 3.6% 12 8.4% 10 8-6 6.7% 8 0.4% 15 -2.7% 28 13 TB 3.3% 16 8.2% 11 7-7 -4.0% 21 -7.7% 9 -0.4% 19 14 CHI 0.6% 15 0.6% 16 7-7 -9.4% 23 -9.0% 7 1.1% 9 15 PHI 0.5% 13 2.0% 14 7-7 1.6% 15 1.0% 16 0.0% 18 16 PIT -1.4% 14 1.7% 15 8-6 -21.5% 30 -17.3% 3 2.8% 4 17 HOU -4.1% 20 -7.8% 21 9-5 3.3% 11 9.6% 27 2.2% 7 18 LAC -6.0% 18 -2.8% 17 5-9 2.2% 13 4.6% 21 -3.5% 31 19 CLE -6.9% 17 -7.0% 20 6-8 -2.9% 20 4.0% 19 0.0% 17 20 ATL -7.3% 25 -3.4% 18 5-9 0.4% 16 5.4% 23 -2.3% 27 21 IND -7.8% 19 -9.4% 23 6-8 -1.9% 17 3.0% 18 -2.9% 30 22 ARI -10.3% 24 -6.1% 19 4-9-1 2.8% 12 10.3% 28 -2.8% 29 23 DEN -10.9% 21 -8.3% 22 5-9 -11.5% 26 -1.9% 12 -1.3% 24 24 DET -11.7% 22 -18.2% 26 3-10-1 -2.6% 19 9.5% 26 0.5% 12 25 OAK -13.5% 23 -15.1% 24 6-8 4.8% 10 16.3% 31 -2.0% 26 26 CAR -18.7% 27 -27.6% 30 5-9 -10.8% 24 6.6% 24 -1.2% 23 27 NYG -19.0% 29 -18.2% 25 3-11 -11.4% 25 8.2% 25 0.6% 11 28 JAX -20.3% 28 -29.9% 31 5-9 -11.7% 27 10.7% 29 2.1% 8 29 NYJ -20.7% 26 -19.3% 27 5-9 -25.7% 32 -1.3% 13 3.7% 2 30 WAS -23.3% 31 -24.6% 29 3-11 -22.0% 31 4.1% 20 2.8% 5 31 CIN -25.2% 30 -22.3% 28 1-13 -16.7% 28 13.1% 30 4.6% 1 32 MIA -44.4% 32 -36.6% 32 3-11 -19.9% 29 24.1% 32 -0.5% 20

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).