College Football

Nebraska season win total, betting predictions: Cornhuskers hype getting out of hand

Nebraska season win total, betting predictions: Cornhuskers hype getting out of hand

Our Big Ten college football team betting previews move on to one of the most hotly debated teams for the upcoming 2019 season: The Nebraska Cornhuskers. With a win total of 8.5, Scott Frost's team is expected to compete for the Big Ten West crown, and perhaps beyond.

Joe Rodgers

Senior Staff Writer

BetChicago

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@RodgersBC

Joe Rodgers is a sports analyst specializing in betting odds and fantasy. He has spent time with Perform Group Media, earned a master's degree, and is even a certified pace car driver.

It doesn't matter who your source is -- oddsmakers, bettors, or even the advanced metrics, no one can seem to agree on how good the Nebraska Cornhuskers will be this upcoming college football season. Ranked No. 20 in ESPN's preseason poll, Nebraska has a [win total of 8.5](https://twitter.com/lindetrain/status/1145807612249690114/photo/1), despite going 4-8 last season and returning 11 starters (93rd in returning production). The optimism that followed coach Scott Frost returning to his alma mater remains as public bettors have been quick to bet Nebraska to win the national title (30/1), while [sharp bettors](https://www.betchicago.com/golden-nugget-college-football-game-year-lines) have targeted the Huskers in a home date against Ohio State on Sept. 28 as now 7-point underdogs after opening +10. "I think within three years Nebraska is going to be in the playoffs," Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons told BetChicago in January. "Plus, we wrote a ton of Nebraska future money here." Last season, the Huskers won four of their last six games, and their last three losses -- at Northwestern in overtime, at No. 8 Ohio State and at Iowa -- came by a combined 11 points. Quarterback Adrian Martinez is getting plenty of sleeper Heisman love (10/1 odds) after a school-record 295.1 yards of offense per game last season. Count Golden Nugget oddsmaker Aaron Kessler as one of the Nebraska doubters for the upcoming season. He admitted his numbers on Nebraska (and Texas), were an anomaly to the rest of the risk team when creating Games of the Year lines in May. Also count advanced data set S&P+ as being low on the Huskers for next season. S&P+ thinks Nebraska will be better in 2019, but not 4-plus wins better (6.4 projected wins). The data set, along with [ESPN's FPI](https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25988761/clemson-tigers-get-best-alabama-crimson-tide-again-fpi-preseason-rankings), both rank the Huskers outside the top 30 in the country. FPI (35th) is a bit higher on Nebraska than S&P+ (45th), but both see the Black Shirts once again bringing down the program. Last season, Nebraska allowed 433.5 yards per game and 31.3 points per game, ranked 90th in defensive success rate, 112th in sack rate, and 112th in rushing S&P+. While Nebraska was unlucky in the turnover department, its defense was still awful no matter how you look at it. Things won't improve drastically overnight with five starters returning, but if Erik Chinander's 3-4 base loaded with upperclassmen can improve enough not to be a liability, the Huskers will get back to a bowl game. __Big Ten win totals and picks:__ [Northwestern](https://www.betchicago.com/northwestern-win-total-2019-predictions-betting-point-spreads) | [Wisconsin](https://www.betchicago.com/wisconsin-season-win-total-picks-2019-badgers-schedule-big-ten) | [Michigan](https://www.betchicago.com/michigan-season-win-total-betting-predictions-wolverines-ats-odds) | [Minnesota](https://www.betchicago.com/minnesota-season-win-total-betting-predictions-gophers-odds) | [Michigan State](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-college-football-betting-win-totals-michigan-state) | [Purdue](https://www.betchicago.com/purdue-season-win-total-betting-odds-schedule-predictions) | [Ohio State](https://www.betchicago.com/ohio-state-season-win-total-betting-picks-ats-2019) ## 2019 Nebraska football S&P+ rankings 2019 S&P+: 6.6 2019 S&P+ rank: No. 45 overall | No. 8 Big Ten 2019 offense rank: No. 35 2019 defense rank: No. 64 Final 2018 S&P+: 5.4; No. 49 overall | No. 9 Big Ten 2018 record: 4-8 overall (6-5-1 ATS), 3-6 in Big Ten 2018 second-order wins: 6.7 (2.7) The preseason S&P+ ratings take into consideration recruiting, returning production and recent history to create a power rating for all 130 teams. Returning production makes up a vast majority of the preseason S&P+ projections, which are informed overall by tempo- and opponent-adjusted components of the five factors of college football: Efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives. Per creator Bill Connelly, the fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates. [Click here](https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-football-advanced-stats-analytics-rankings) to learn more about S&P+. Nebraska's preseason S&P+ power rating is 6.6, which means the Cornhuskers are 6.6 points better than an average team (power-rated at zero) on a neutral field. __MORE:__ [College football win totals and picks](https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-win-totals-picks-2019-season) | [Heisman Trophy betting update](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-heisman-trophy-betting-report-shea-patterson-sam-ehlinger) ## 2019 Nebraska football schedule, predictions Projections provided by S&P+ <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>2019 outlook</th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>Proj. Rk</td><td>45</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Off. Rk</td><td>35</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Def. Rk</td><td>64</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Projected Wins</td><td>6.4</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Wins (+7 PPG)</td><td>8</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Wins (-7 PPG)</td><td>4.7</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Opponent (Proj. Rk)</td><td>Date</td><td>Proj. Margin</td><td>Win Prob.</td></tr> <tr><td>S. Alabama (127)</td><td>31-Aug</td><td>29.9</td><td>96%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Colorado (68)</td><td>7-Sep</td><td>2.4</td><td>55%</td></tr> <tr><td>NIU</td><td>14-Sep</td><td>9.7</td><td>71%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Illinois (91)</td><td>21-Sep</td><td>7.9</td><td>68%</td></tr> <tr><td>Ohio St (7)</td><td>28-Sep</td><td>-15.2</td><td>19%</td></tr> <tr><td>NW</td><td>5-Oct</td><td>4.9</td><td>61%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Minnesota (33)</td><td>12-Oct</td><td>-5.4</td><td>38%</td></tr> <tr><td>Indiana (46)</td><td>26-Oct</td><td>2.7</td><td>56%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Purdue (58)</td><td>2-Nov</td><td>-0.1</td><td>50%</td></tr> <tr><td>Wisconsin (11)</td><td>16-Nov</td><td>-11</td><td>26%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Maryland (67)</td><td>23-Nov</td><td>2.1</td><td>55%</td></tr> <tr><td>Iowa (25)</td><td>29-Nov</td><td>-3.4</td><td>42%</td></tr> </tbody></table> __MORE:__ [Odds to make 2019 College Football Playoff](https://www.betchicago.com/odds-2019-college-football-playoff-betting-notre-dame) | [No, Texas football isn't back](https://www.betchicago.com/texas-longhorns-football-betting-point-spreads-win-total) ## Betting Nebraska football in 2019 We know S&P+ and FPI are down on the Huskers compared to their 8.5 win total and preseason ranking, but in piecing together Games of the Year point spreads from various sportsbooks, it looks like Nebraska will be betting underdogs in just two games this season. Nebraska is a 7-point home dog against Ohio State, and is a 2.5-point road dog at Purdue this season. Scott Frost will put his 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS mark as a road favorite on the line against Minnesota (-2.5) and his 13-4 ATS mark in revenge spots at home against Northwestern (-5.5), Wisconsin (-3), and Iowa (-2.5). Point spreads for tricky road dates at Colorado, Illinois, and Maryland have yet to be released, but all three schools have a win total of less than five. College football analyst Phil Steele [predicts that](https://twitter.com/RodgersBC/status/1144270876399099904) Nebraska will be the most-improved team in college football this season. While we agree that the Huskers will be improved, expecting a 9-win season is too much of a stretch against an improved Big Ten West. __MORE:__ [Notre Dame's win total likely hinges on final game of season](https://www.betchicago.com/notre-dame-2019-betting-point-spreads-win-total)

2019-07-07T17:27:08.782Z