California population growth slowest ever, but two East Bay cities buck the trend

California’s population growth was the slowest ever in 2018, but Dublin and Newark never got the memo. The two Alameda County cities had some of the fastest population growth in the state last year.

New estimates from the California Department of Finance found that Dublin grew 4.4 percent, the second-highest rate in the state among cities with 30,000 or more residents. Newark grew by 3.3 percent, the sixth fastest rate in the same category. Among big cities, Sacramento had the fastest population growth at 1.5 percent. The city has become a popular destination for residents fleeing the Bay Area.

Overall, California’s rate of 0.47 percent was driven by a declining birth rate “that was lower than expected,” said Doug Kuczynski, a state demographer. At the same time, deaths have been increasing since 2010. That’s driven by the aging Boomer Generation, which Kuczynski said continues to “progress forward.”

California added just 186,807 residents last year, leaving it just shy of a population of 40 million.

Dublin and Newark’s growth was driven by — what else — housing.

“In the areas where housing got built, the population grew more,” said Kuczynski. “Particularly in areas like Sacramento and the Central Valley.” Manteca, in nearby San Joaquin County, grew by 3.4 percent, the fifth fastest rate among cities with 30,000 or more residents.

Kuczynski credited Dublin’s 2,703 new residents in part to the 858 new single-family and 155 multi-family units built in the city in 2018. That was the 10th largest number of housing units built in a city anywhere in the state. Dublin is growing so fast, that Dublin school district is struggling to build schools to accommodate the influx of new families.

Newark had a more balanced mix of new housing, with 224 single-family and 233 multi-family units, according to Kuczynski. The city added 1,534 new residents last year.

Chico was the fastest-growing city in the state. Its addition of 19,250 new residents — a nearly 21 percent increase — was largely driven by the influx of people displaced by last season’s deadly Camp Fire, the most destructive wildfire in state history. It killed at least 88 people and destroyed nearly 14,000 homes in Butte County.

Paradise, among the hardest hit towns, went from about 26,400 residents in 2017 to 4,590 last year. The loss of homes and displacement was expected to exacerbate the region’s housing crisis and drive up costs as far away as the Bay Area and Sacramento.

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Bay Area residents seek the California dream — in Sacramento Unlike some of its East Bay neighbors, San Jose followed the statewide trend — and then some. Its 0.02 percent population increase in 2018 was the second lowest among large California cities, just behind Long Beach. Santa Clara County overall saw its growth slow to 0.33 percent, about half what it was in just 2017.

Kuczynski again pointed to housing as a driving factor. San Jose added 723 new housing units last year, barely more than what was built in much smaller Sunnyvale.

San Francisco grew 0.3 percent and added 2,289 new units, 99.5 percent of which were multi-family housing.

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