Stephen Holder

IndyStar

From the day Andrew Luck walked through the door at Indianapolis Colts headquarters, everyone in the building knew this time would come.

It’s time to pay the man.

Colts owner Jim Irsay is about to fork over a share of his sizable fortune to his quarterback. Why? Because Luck has given him no choice by being a brilliant player for the past four seasons. This is, after all, the NFL, where true franchise quarterbacks are the holy grail. It’s a league where the Eagles’ Sam Bradford, he of perpetual mediocrity, can earn $18 million per year on the deal he signed Tuesday.

So, yes, Luck is going to get paid. All the Colts have to do now is come to terms on an expected nine-figure deal that likely will trump any contract in NFL history.

“Both sides are motivated,” General Manager Ryan Grigson said last week. “We obviously want Andrew here. I really don’t anticipate any issues with that. I can’t talk about any numbers or anything like that. We haven’t started any of those discussions. But that will probably happen soon.”

The issue now, as the Colts and the rest of the NFL prepare for the upcoming free agent signing period, is how it all impacts the franchise’s ability to field a competitive roster.

Colts free agent wish list: Offense

True, the Colts are about to enter a new reality. But this doesn’t have to be the doomsday scenario some assume it to be.

“You can still be involved in free agency and handle your business,” said ESPN analyst Andrew Brandt, a former Packers vice president and contract negotiator. “But you have to have a good bit of your team on rookie contracts to balance it out. It’s really a philosophy. You draft and develop. Rely on your coaches so they develop guys and then you don’t need those quick fixes in free agency.”

As they approach the signing period, which begins Wednesday, the Colts currently have about $24 million in salary cap space. The reported release of receiver Andre Johnson would add $5 million to that total. Luck already is on the ledger for $16 million because the Colts exercised his contract’s fifth-year team option, triggering a substantial raise. Luck has earned a total of $22 million in his first four seasons – roughly the same money Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers earns annually.

Colts free agent wish list: Defense

The NFL’s collective bargaining agreement strictly limits what players earn on rookie deals. But the only thing limiting Luck on his next deal is how far he’s willing to take these negotiations. The $22 million average per year standard – currently enjoyed by Rodgers and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco – is likely the baseline for the Luck talks, Brandt said.

Remember, Rodgers’ deal, which paid him $54 million in guarantees, was negotiated in 2013 under a lower salary cap. Another factor in negotiations will likely be Ndamukong Suh’s deal with the Miami Dolphins. He received an eye-popping $60 million in fully-guaranteed money when he joined the Dolphins last year. Look for Luck to surpass that – maybe by a lot.

“It’s all about the guaranteed money,” said Joel Corry, a former player agent who writes a column for cbssports.com. “These NFL contracts aren’t worth the paper they’re written on.”

Said Brandt: “We don’t have fully guaranteed contracts in the NFL (like basketball and baseball), but I’ve always said only guys like Andrew Luck can change that. He could say, ‘OK, if you give me $100 million, then I want a legit $100 million.’ There are very few players who could make that request.”

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The fact that we’re seeing annual increases in the salary cap – which is tied to the NFL’s growing revenues – likely will become a factor in negotiations.

“You definitely consider that,” Corry said. “Otherwise, the team is going to have to give me some data that shows me that’s not the case.”

All this might sound daunting to a Colts fan, but take heart. The Colts are actually in position to ably handle Luck’s contract.

They’ve been aggressive in free agency under Grigson, often with mixed results. But the contracts they’ve taken on have been the sort they could easily escape (see: Landry, LaRon). More such moves could be looming in the coming days, with veterans like Trent Cole among those in jeopardy of being released. It might not be a badge of honor, but it certainly gives the Colts added flexibility with Luck and others.

Now the preparation of the past is about to pay off.

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“It’s not because of me,” Grigson said. “I have great people who I trust in (chief legal officer) Dan Emerson and (director of football administration) Mike Bluem. I trust them. I stay in my lane, they stay in their lane. I talk to them about what we can spend, and they might say we need to get creative. I say, ‘I don’t want to hear we have to get creative. We need to find a way to do this.' " He laughs.

“And then with (Irsay), if we really want to sign someone, Jim Irsay is right there to open his wallet. I get the guilt when guys don’t work out because he’s been so supportive in that respect. But there’s more than one way to skin a cat. They had a similar situation here in the past with the money they paid to Peyton.”

Peyton Manning was consistently among the NFL’s highest-paid players during his tenure with the Colts, yet they still managed to keep the likes of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne happy. Of course, the Colts didn’t have one of the NFL’s highest-paid defenses back then, as they did in 2015. That will be unsustainable going forward.

“You have less margin for error,” Corry said.

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Spending won’t come to a halt, but prudence must play a bigger role in decision-making. In the long run, that might mean more deals like Mike Adams’ (two years, $4.5 million) and fewer like Johnson’s (three years, $21 million).

Yes, the Colts will have at least some money to shop for free agents next week, but Brandt has a more practical suggestion.

“I wouldn’t advise them to do a deal with (Luck) with one of those big signing bonuses that pushes money into future years,” he said. Instead, Brandt advocates front-loading the Luck deal, enabling the Colts to swallow a sizable share of the cap costs in the near future – when they can accurately forecast their cap situation. Remember that before you go window shopping wearing your GM hat.

The good ol’ days are over. The Colts’ new economic reality is here.

That’s the price the Colts must pay to have what everyone else wants: a franchise quarterback.

Follow IndyStar reporter Stephen Holder on Twitter: @HolderStephen.

Top paid quarterbacks

Andrew Luck is expected to sign a contract extension with the Colts this offseason. Here's a look at the highest paid quarterbacks by average salary, according to overthecap.com:

Joe Flacco, Baltimore, $22,133,333

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, $22,000,000

Russell Wilson, Seattle, $21,900,000

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh, $21,850,000

Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants, $21,000,000