With that said, the Stars can’t be pleased to be sitting 11th in the conference. Dropping points early puts them in a tough spot in the West, but their possession game has been decent so far. They have put up a 50.45 percent score-adjusted fenwick so far this season. Adjusting fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) for score effects – the impact of game states – is particularly helpful early in the season. Teams off to a hot start have spent much of their time leading games, and may have struggled at possession as a result. In general, trailing teams generate shots at a much higher rate than those leading.

The most concerning aspect of the Stars’ game so far has been their defense. Only two of their regular defensemen have posted a positive relative Corsi so far. A top four of Brenden Dillon, Alex Goligoski, Jordie Benn and Trevor Daley were never going to hold up against their counterparts in Chicago, St Louis, or San Jose. Daley, who has spent most of his career in the red for possession, is currently outdoing himself with a minus-9.4 percent relative Corsi this season.

It isn’t as if the struggles on the blueline came out of nowhere, either. Last season, only one of Dallas’s top six defencemen finished with a positive dCorsi. dCorsi regresses factors like quality of teammates, faceoffs and zone starts to give an “Expected Corsi,” and then compares it to the player’s actual Corsi. dCorsi is the difference between those two. Below is a chart with the Expected Corsi and Actual Corsi for each member of the Stars’ top-six last season.

Each of the top six but Daley, who came out marginally positive for only the second time in his career, failed to play up to their usage: they were out of their depth. Unsurprisingly, the Stars are sitting 25 th in the league with 58.5 shot attempts against per 60 minutes of even strength play. They generate shots at a high level, too, but their shot suppression this year and last has been among the league’s worst. Below is a graph of shot-attempt rates for and against across the league. Any team that falls below the diagonal line has a Corsi percent below 50 percent.

Their closest comparables in shot attempt rates against are the Senators and Maple Leafs. Just to the right of those teams we see the Flyers, Flames, and Avalanche: company the Stars should not be in. No matter how potent their offence is, the Stars shot suppression (or lack thereof) is clearly holding them back.

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This isn’t all down to the defensemen: Lindy Ruff-coached teams always play fast-paced hockey. From 2005 to 2012 – the seasons he coached in Buffalo that we have shot attempt data for – the Sabres were the seventh highest-event team in the league. Last season, Ruff’s first with the Stars, only one playoff team (San Jose) played at a higher event rate.

No doubt about it, the high-paced attack is part of why the young offensive stars in Dallas are thriving. Tyler Seguin has 21 points in only 15 games this season. But the link between shot suppression and team success, particularly in the playoffs, has been well established. Teams that can dictate the pace of play and control possession are most likely to succeed.

The defensemen are not the only ones to blame for the Stars’ inability to suppress shots. Certainly much of it is systemic. At the same time, improving their blueline should be a priority, and they are likely to do just that after moving Sergei Gonchar on Tuesday. Whether it’s through systems or personnel, if the Stars are going to turn around their season they need to improve their shot suppression.