Introduction

It's been a long time since my last stats blog, here is another one !I've been analyzing matches from last 100days with my mind focussed on the balance of the sides. A lot of stats already exist ( http://www.hltv.org/?pageid=183 ) in this domain but it's more rounds stats and it misses some interesting informations.Maps PlayedFirst stat is the number of maps played during this time period, nothing exceptional here in the distribution with Mirage and Cache being the most played.If we compare this to the hltv stats page we can see Cache is being played more often in the last months than before and Dust2 played less.

Sides Stats

1.Best sideThe idea was not to count every rounds played but only the halves results. The final graph differs slightly from the hltv graph, this one putting Cobblestone and Cache T-sided.Legend : Orange : T-side ; Blue : CT-side2.Starting sideIt's easy to think that the previous graph solve the starting side problem but it's not rigorously proven. This following graph bring us some surprises :Indeed, Cobblestone despite being T-sided in the previous graph is a map with 55% chance of win when starting CT-side. In fact, this phenomenon don't affect Train and Cache only.3. ComebacksWhy such a "problem"? We are thinking in mass that Cobblestone is T-sided and so that it's positive to start as a Terrorist but it seems not being the case.. Why?This could partially be explained by the comebacks, a.k.a. the maps won after being dominated in the first half. T-sides comebacks mean the team winning the match started CT side ! And looking to this graph can fix your mind considering the previous problem.The comeback potential is sometimes so strong for a map that it isn't that useful to choose the strongest side at the start of the match.For example with our Cobblestone problem, there are a lot more T-side comebacks, meaning teams can deal with the CT start easily.

Map Balance

Those stats and graphs can be used to determine the maps that are balanced and the others that are not.Upset powerWe can add to those 3 stats an upset factor : maps where the upsets are the more frequent being perhaps the most unbalanced (surprises happen because the game wasn't totally fair). This is only and idea, but I thought it was interesting to display it :Maps rankingCombining all this factor lead to a ranking of the most balanced maps. It's not in term of "T-sided a lot" but more "if a team has economical/quick advantage they can close they game easily".7. Train6. Cobblestone5. Inferno4. Cache...3. Mirage......2. Dust2.........1. OverpassOf course, it's something subjective and using the same stats you can argue for another order but it's my humble statistical vision ;-) I'm a bit surprised to see Overpass in here tbh.

Thanks for reading !

Sources : HLTV StatsTopeiko, the belgian mathematician.