Meanwhile, many news organizations are reporting that Trump is signaling a “softening” of his mass deportation stance. That hasn’t actually happened yet — Trump has still not clarified whether he’s actually open to legalization in any meaningful sense, which is the core question here — but still, he’s starting to get some of the headlines he wants.

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Here’s something that helps explain what may really be driving Trump’s new makeover, and could help gauge whether it’s working. The Wall Street Journal reports this morning on new data showing that Trump is surprisingly weak in two key strongholds across the country — suburbs and exurbs.

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Mitt Romney carried the exurbs by 18 points in 2012, but that was offset by Barack Obama’s huge margin in the cities, and his sizable margin in the urban suburbs. Trump arguably will have to do even better in the exurbs, which are GOP-leaning counties that tend to be educated, and limit his losses in the suburbs. And the college educated whites in these areas are precisely the voters who are getting alienated by Trump’s antics and stream of ugly vitriol.

The Journal explains Trump’s weaknesses in those areas:

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A new analysis of Gallup survey numbers from the first half of 2016 find that Mr. Trump has a relatively weak image in exurban counties, particularly compared to the more favorable views of Hillary Clinton in big cities and the suburbs just outside them. The Gallup data show that 36 percent of the people in the exurbs hold favorable opinions of Mr. Trump, three percentage points higher than the 33 percent in those communities who hold favorable opinions of Mrs. Clinton. By contrast, Mrs. Clinton’s standing in Democratic strongholds is far firmer than is Mr. Trump’s standing in the exurbs. In big cities as defined by the American Communities Project, some 53 percent hold a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while 21 percent hold a favorable view of Mr. Trump – a 32-point gap. In the urban suburbs, some 46 percent hold a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while Mr. Trump’s favorable number is at 28 percent — an 18-point difference. The Gallup numbers suggest ambivalence about the 2016 presidential race in the exurbs. Without big margins in the exurbs, the GOP risks becoming a party made up largely of rural, white voters, further hampering its ability to win the White House. There simply aren’t enough of those voters.

As I’ve argued, Trump’s new immigration rhetoric may be all about putting a much more humane and rational spin on his plans, while not altering the underlying goal of removing all the 11 million. Meanwhile, the Post report makes it clear that Trump’s new outreach to African American voters is only partly about winning them over — there is another target in mind:

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For Trump, the objective is twofold, according to his aides and allies. He wants to make inroads with minority voters, who polls show overwhelmingly support Clinton. He also believes that a more measured approach on race can convince white voters now shunning him — especially women — that he is not the racist that his inflammatory rhetoric might indicate.

In other words, all of this is very much tailored towards persuading suburban and exurban swing voters that Trump isn’t really the hater that they’ve seen shouting from their television screens for the last year. And as the Post story notes, this is a tall order: One recent poll found that 65 percent of American adults believe the word “racist” applies to Trump at least to some degree.

Even some Republicans agree with the notion that Trump will have to reverse that perception among many white voters, and that his minority outreach is partly about accomplishing that goal. Check this out, from the Post story:

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“After 15 months of denigrating every nonwhite minority in sight, it’s hard to believe that he can actually do significantly better among nonwhites,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. “But he may be able to soften his image a bit with some Republican and maybe a few independent whites who have been put off by his harshness thus far.”

There you have it. One way to gauge whether Trump’s new makeover is working, keep an eye on impressions of Trump among exurban and suburban voters.

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* TRUMP AGAIN SIGNALS ‘SOFTENING’ ON IMMIGRATION, SORT OF: Here’s the latest from Trump on whether he’d carry out mass deportations, in a town hall with Sean Hannity last night:

“Is there any part of the law that you might be able to change that would accommodate those people that contribute to society, have been law-abiding, have kids here?” Hannity asked. “Would there be any rule in your mind?” “There certainly can be a softening because we’re not looking to hurt people,” Trump said in his response. “We want people — we have some great people in this country.”

Uh, define “softening.” The question for Trump: Would you support a change in the law to allow undocumented immigrants to get on a path to legal status without leaving the country first?

* TRUMP’S IMMIGRATION RUSE MIGHT ALIENATE RIGHT: The Washington Examiner’s David Drucker reports that Republicans think Trump might be exposing himself to that dreaded charge that he supports “amnesty”:

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The move is fraught with peril, and could cost Trump enthusiasm on the right, without delivering the payoff he’s looking for in the center….even if it is just a feint, it could make immigration hawks in his base nervous.

It’s doubtful that some after-the-fact softening scam will actually help him much with swing voters, since he’s indelibly defined by mass deportations and his wall.

* HOW TO READ THE NATIONAL POLLS: Analyst Mark Blumenthal explains why the national polling that includes Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, as opposed to head-to-head Clinton-Trump match-up, might inflate impressions of support for minor parties:

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Many voters who are undecided about Clinton and Trump (or about voting generally) tend to grab for these alternative options as a way of indicating their uncertainty….the voters who opt for Johnson and Stein – often younger and more politically independent – are also less politically engaged and less likely to vote.

This doesn’t mean head-to-head polling is more predictive; we should look at both sets of numbers while remembering that those picking minor parties might end up with Clinton or Trump.

* TRUMP THOUGHT HE’D DO BETTER WITH BLACKS: The Post also brings us this amazing nugget:

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When Trump began his campaign, he was confident he would do better with black voters than Romney — mostly because African Americans form part of his commercial base for “The Apprentice” and his casinos. People who have helped manage the Trump Organization’s brand said the company’s private research over the past decades showed that many black people admired Trump’s ostentatious lifestyle. But that image changed once Trump became a political figure in 2011 by making himself the face of the “birther” movement.

Shockingly, becoming the world’s most famous proponent of the theory that the first African American president isn’t actually American might have damaged him among African Americans.

* CLINTON AD HITS TRUMP OUTSOURCING: The Hillary Clinton campaign released a new ad today featuring an American shirt factory owner pillorying Trump over the fact that Trump clothing is manufactured in many foreign countries. Closing line: “Trump says he’ll make America great again — while he’s taking the shirts right off our backs.”

The parallels to the ads hitting Romney in 2012 as a predatory capitalist are unmistakable — but the twist here is that Trump is a lower-brow version of it, a huckster and flim-flam artist.

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* TRUMP’S MISLEADING CLAIM ABOUT BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT: Trump and his campaign keep claiming that the unemployment rate among black youths is 58 percent. Michelle Lee sets the record straight. Why Trump’s strategy of actively misleading African American voters isn’t producing dividends is a real mystery.

* TRUMP: CLINTON ‘KNOWS SHE’S GUILTY’: Trump, on Fox News, claims everyone in America, Clinton included, knows she’s guilty of something when it comes to the Clinton Foundation and her conduct as Secretary of State:

“Everybody knows she’s guilty. She knows she’s guilty…She’s lied all over the place. And it’s almost like she can do whatever she wants to do. I think it’s so unfair. It’s so bad for our country.”

Message to supporters: Lock her up! Lock her up! Lock her up!