Finding No. 5115 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 16-18, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,515 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Last weekend (August 16-18, 2013) with only three weeks to go until the Federal Election, the L-NP has taken the lead – L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. Just one week ago, before the first Leaders Debate the Morgan Poll showed the ALP and L-NP equal on 50%.

The ALP primary vote is 36.5% (unchanged), behind the L-NP primary vote at 44.5% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (down 1%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (up 0.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen in the past week – up 3pts to 104. Now 42.5% (up 2%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38.5% (down 1%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would be heading for a narrow victory according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,515 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (49%) cf. L-NP (51%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a clear lead for the L-NP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. ALP (48%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women favouring the ALP (51.5%, down 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, up 0.5%) on a two party preferred basis and Men even more heavily favouring the L-NP 53.5% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 46.5% (down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today the L-NP is just in front – L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted mid-week only days after the Leaders Debate showed the L-NP well ahead (L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%). Although telephone polls tend to be biased towards the L-NP (some pollsters overcome this bias by weighting the results by ‘past vote’), it is likely that the L-NP gained ground with the debate and in the immediate aftermath in which Rudd was attacked for using notes and then lost some of the gains with Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s ‘sex appeal’ comment and the Coalition’s refusal to explain how they would balance the Budget. “This Federal Election is very different to the last election. Financial issues like Cost of living, High taxes and the Economy are much more important (29%) compared to (17%) before the last election. The Environment has fallen to almost a non-issue (7%, compared to 17% before the last election). “Although the L-NP is traditionally seen as better for ‘Managing the Economy’, they will not win this issue until they can gain the trust of the electorate that they will navigate the country through difficult economic times even though they have not yet provided detailed policy costings. “Kevin Rudd must win this week’s Town Hall debate in Queensland to regain momentum lost in the past week. The Roy Morgan Reactor results analysed by voting preference will be shown live during the debate on www.roymorgan.com.”





Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue). Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 22 August 2013).

Finding No. 5115 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 16-18, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,515 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.





For further information:

Contact Office Mobile Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093





ANALYSIS BY SEX

MEN

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 37.5 36 35 36 +1 L-NP 43.5 (2) 45.5 (2) 47 (2.5) 47.5 (3.5) +0.5 Greens 8 7.5 9.5 8 -1.5 Ind. /Other 11 11 8.5 8.5 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 49.5 48 48 46.5 -1.5 L-NP 50.5 52 52 53.5 +1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 1,804 1,650 1,866 2,289

WOMEN

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 39.5 40 37.5 37 -0.5 L-NP 40 (3) 40.5 (2) 41 (3) 41.5 (3) +0.5 Greens 12.5 10.5 11.5 11.5 - Ind. /Other 8 9 10 10 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 54 52 52 51.5 -0.5 L-NP 46 48 48 48.5 +0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 1,771 1,676 1,970 2,226

ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

CAPITAL CITIES

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 39.5 39.5 36.5 36.5 - L-NP 42 (1) 41.5 (0.5) 42.5 (0.5) 44.5 (1) +2 Greens 10.5 10.5 11.5 10 -1.5 Ind. /Other 8 8.5 9.5 9 -0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 53 52.5 51 49.5 -1.5 L-NP 47 47.5 49 50.5 +1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 2,133 1,999 2,332 2,659

COUNTRY AREAS

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 37 36.5 36.5 36 -0.5 L-NP 41 (5) 44.5 (5) 46 (7) 44.5 (7) -1.5 Greens 10 7.5 8.5 8.5 - Ind. /Other 12 11.5 9 11 +2 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 50.5 46.5 48.5 48.5 - L-NP 49.5 53.5 51.5 51.5 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 1,442 1,327 1,504 1,856

ANALYSIS BY STATE

NEW SOUTH WALES

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 40 40.5 36.5 37.5 +1 L-NP 43 (3.5) 42.5 (4) 44.5 (4) 45.5 (4) +1 Greens 8.5 8 11 8 -3 Ind. /Other 8.5 9 8 9 +1 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 50.5 52 50 49 -1 L-NP 49.5 48 50 51 +1 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 1,092 1,059 1,200 1,389

VICTORIA

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38 38.5 36 36 - L-NP 38.5 (2) 39.5 (1.5) 42 (3.5) 44.5 (3) +2.5 Greens 13.5 13 12.5 11.5 -1 Ind. /Other 10 9 9.5 8 -1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 56 53.5 52 49.5 -2.5 L-NP 44 46.5 48 50.5 +2.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 911 840 942 1,118

QUEENSLAND

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 35.5 36 38.5 35.5 -3 LNP 45.5 46.5 44.5 45 +0.5 Greens 9 6 8 8 - Ind. /Other 10 11.5 9 11.5 +2.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 47 45 50 47 -3 LNP 53 55 50 53 +3 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 683 650 743 876

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 35.5 33.5 31 35.5 +4.5 L-NP 46 (4.5) 48.5 (2) 47.5 (5) 46 (5.5) -1.5 Greens 9.5 10 10.5 8 -2.5 Ind. /Other 9 8 11 10.5 -0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 48 41.5 45 46 +1 L-NP 52 58.5 55 54 -1 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 322 279 375 394

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 40 30.5 35.5 33.5 -2 L-NP 38 (0.5) 44.5 (0.5) 45 (1) 39.5 (0.5) -5.5 Greens 10 9.5 8 14.5 +6.5 Ind. /Other 12 15.5 11.5 12.5 +1 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 54 47.5 47.5 52.5 +5 L-NP 46 52.5 52.5 47.5 -5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 273 232 314 361

TASMANIA*

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 43.5 50 41 38.5 -2.5 L-NP 38 37 37 40 (1) +3 Greens 9 6.5 7 10 +3 Ind. /Other 9.5 6.5 15 11.5 -3.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 56.5 59 56.5 56.5 - L-NP 43.5 41 43.5 43.5 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 152 128 136 193

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.

ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 40.5 37 38.5 34.5 -4 L-NP 28 (1) 29 (0.5) 31.5 (1) 31 (2.5) -0.5 Greens 17.5 16 18 18.5 +0.5 Ind. /Other 14 18 12 16 +4 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 62 57 63.5 59.5 -4 L-NP 38 43 36.5 40.5 +4 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 231 236 249 290

25-34

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 40.5 43 41 41.5 +0.5 L-NP 36.5 (1.5) 31 (1) 32.5 (1.5) 35 (3.5) +2.5 Greens 16.5 14 17 13.5 -3.5 Ind. /Other 6.5 12 9.5 10 +0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 58.5 60 61.5 58.5 -3 L-NP 41.5 40 38.5 41.5 +3 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 477 430 524 628

35-49

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38 37.5 35 37.5 +2.5 L-NP 38.5 (1.5) 42.5 (3) 43 (3) 42.5 (2) -0.5 Greens 12 11.5 11.5 11 -0.5 Ind. /Other 11.5 8.5 10.5 9 -1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 53.5 50.5 49.5 51.5 +2 L-NP 46.5 49.5 50.5 48.5 -2 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 885 837 961 1,138

50-64

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38.5 37 37 35.5 -1.5 L-NP 44 (2) 47 (2.5) 46.5 (3.5) 47.5 (3.5) +1 Greens 7 6 8 7 -1 Ind. /Other 10.5 10 8.5 10 +1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 50.5 47 47 46 -1 L-NP 49.5 53 53 54 +1 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 1,170 1,041 1,178 1,433

65+

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 36.5 37 33 33.5 +0.5 L-NP 53.5 (4.5) 53 (3) 56 (4.5) 57 (5) +1 Greens 4.5 3.5 4.5 3.5 -1 Ind. /Other 5.5 6.5 6.5 6 -0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 43 43 40.5 45 +4.5 L-NP 57 57 59.5 55 -4.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 812 782 924 1,026

TOTAL

PRIMARY VOTE July

26-28, 2013 August

2-4, 2013 August

9-11, 2013 August

16-18, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38.5 38 36.5 36.5 - L-NP 41.5 (2.5) 43 (2) 44 (3) 44.5 +0.5 Greens 10.5 9.5 10.5 9.5 -1 Ind. /Other 9.5 9.5 9. 9.5 +0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 52 50 50 49 -1 L-NP 48 50 50 51 +1 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 3,575 3,326 3,836 4,515

Data Tables









Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.