As the endless NDP leadership campaign meanders toward its closing days, one man has already given Trudeau Liberals serious political heartburn, the other may have seized the mantle of “natural successor.”

Unless Andrew Scheer soon begins to demonstrate that he understands why his party was so decisively thumped by young urban Canadians, his ability to challenge sunny ways appear dim. A fey, dimpled smile is not sufficient shift, policy matters more. A disturbing return to Islamophobic whispers in the Khadr affair is not encouraging.

This has reopened a door, albeit only a crack, for New Democrats. The Trudeau government’s style remains a huge appealing change from those days for a majority of progressive Canadians, its substantive achievement less so.

Federal New Democrats leadership contests are strikingly different from the circuslike atmosphere that marks their competitors. They tend to be, simply, boring.

Three factors unique to Dippers, make this so. Its activists have suspended disbelief about the prospects of victory tomorrow, out of a commitment to long-term goals. This requires discipline, especially avoiding gifts of attack material to the enemy, clipped from heated internal combat.

Secondly, that discipline requires you not trash talk another New Democrat publicly — not conducive to rock ’em, sock ’em debates.

Finally, the field of serious contenders is almost always small, and their senior campaign teams typically do their work in the background, attempting to move supporters out of the media’s gaze.

This culture also drives the choice of the next torchbearer. A key divide is between comfort and ambition. Most often, federal New Dems choose the obvious or more reassuring choice — sober David Lewis over firebrand Jim Laxer, Ed Broadbent over charismatic Rosemary Brown, Alexa McDonough over gay activist Svend Robinson.

Recently, though, a new generation has stepped outside the comfort zone. It is hard now, following his meteoric rise to icon status, to recall that Jack Layton was a merely a Toronto municipal politician, little known outside Ontario before his bid. Bill Blaikie would have been the more comfortable choice.

Still reeling over his sudden, tragic death, the party turned to Thomas Mulcair, mostly to defend the Quebec fortress that was Layton’s most important legacy. For many New Democrats, however, this was a decidedly uncomfortable choice. Given how it turned out, the comfort versus ambition balance may be Jagmeet Singh’s biggest challenge.

Charlie Angus has impeccable New Dem credentials: northern, working class, long-term Indigenous activist; informal but smart, folksy but policy sharp, self-deprecating, well-known to local party leaders from coast to coast. As comfortable as an old shoe for a wide swathe of traditional party members.

Singh is a mirror opposite: openly ambitious personally and for the party, cool under pressure but happy to be seen to wield a knife, proud and flaunting his cultural and personal difference. Willing to stare down public intolerance and crazy racist hecklers — but with grace and confidence.

If Singh were one of today’s Trudeau Liberals he would likely be a difficult candidate to defeat in a leadership contest, encompassing as he does so much of their cultural and policy terrain. Hence, their rising fear of his ability to be a serious challenger with their own base. But he is green, largely unknown outside Ontario, and untested in a leadership role.

Angus rejects the “boring” label, saying that Canadians have been impressed by a “respectful” campaign among colleagues who share a vision. It is a smoothly coded attack on Thomas Mulcair in part, and a reassuring message to conflict-adverse Canadian progressives.

He can reasonably claim to be a better choice to retake northern and resource dependent ridings across Canada, working class voters who defected first to Harper and then to Trudeau, and seasoned progressives who care about the environment, First Nations, and integrity in politics.

The unresolved strategic question is: who can defend and rebuild Quebec?

Despite Guy Caron’s recent gains, Quebec still lacks a powerful native son candidate. Can Singh appeal to enough urban progressive Quebecers to overcome the hesitations of older rural voters’ unease with his difference? Or does Angus convince with his claim that he can best appeal to working and middle class progressive Quebecers, who are no different than other Canadians in their struggle to defend their families and work to build a better community?

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Who, and how and why New Democrats choose their next leader, will tell a lot about the likely outcome of the 2019 campaign.

Robin V. Sears, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group, was an NDP strategist for 20 years.

Correction - September 27, 2017: This column was edited from a previous version that mistakenly said Audrey McLaughlin won the NDP leadership bid in 1995 by beating Svend Robinson.



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