Ever since Nov. 8, New Yorkers have been girding themselves against the disaster President Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress would unleash. The media—including this column—have been filled with efforts to quantify what Trump means for New York.

Maybe the worries are misplaced. I spent much of last week with people whose job it is to track issues such as federal aid to states and cities, infrastructure and the Affordable Care Act. The message was clear: Trump’s election will change nothing in those areas.

There will be no massive personal tax cut favoring the wealthy, said Dan White, the point person on state and local finances for Moody’s Analytics. State and local tax deductibility is safe. A corporate tax deal is likely to be modest and generate about $250 billion. Congress will restore most of the federal aid to the states that Trump wants to cut. Attempts to punish so-called sanctuary cities beyond slashing money that goes directly to law enforcement will be tied up in the courts for years.

The tax exemption for municipal bonds is equally safe, according to Matt Fabian of Municipal Market Analytics, who has spent time in Washington taking the pulse of Republicans on the issue.

Most of the Affordable Care Act is safe, probably all of it. The law’s popularity jumped the day after Trump was elected, said data journalist extraordinaire Nate Silver, and the Republican replacement’s unpopularity was unprecedented in recent decades. Republicans will pay a huge price if they persist in passing their plan.

The Medicaid expansion, which accounts for most of the decline in the uninsured rate, is entrenched. Even the conservative state of Kansas came just a few votes short of adopting it, and Jonathan Shoreman of The Wichita Eagle predicts the votes will be there to do so next year.

On the other hand, don’t expect a $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Trump can’t seem to articulate what he wants, and the money will be hard to find. Sean Sloane, who tracks all things transportation for the Council of State Governments, puts the chance of an infrastructure plan passing by next April at 18%. Trump also is wimping out on trade, a subject that would need a column all its own.

I know all this because for two months I organized a conference on Trump’s effect on states and cities for the Ravitch Fiscal Reporting Program I run at the CUNY Graduate School of Journalism. I had thought by early April that Obamacare would be nearing a drastic overhaul, tax reform would be gaining momentum and an infrastructure plan would not be far behind.

Maybe the experts have read too much into the demise of the GOP health care plan. Maybe Trump will get his act together, although Silver said the odds of that are low. The situation might be different on other issues. But for now, it’s mostly status quo.