2015 might be North America’s worst year of competitive League of Legends, both domestically and internationally, for several reasons. It remains, for now, the only year in which no North American team was able to qualify for the knockout stage at the world championship. It was also a year which can be seen as the closing chapter of that era in the region’s competitive scene. A plethora of NA legends retired at the end of the year including Voyboy, Saintvicious, Hai’s first retirement, IWillDominate (if you don’t count the few games he played in spring of 2016), and of course Dyrus.

It was also a year which saw the permanent end to legacy rosters within the region. Cloud9’s original lineup finally changed in the summer of 2015, a lineup which to this day remains the longest unchanged roster in the west. TSM’s first Bjergsen lineup with Dyrus top and Wildturtle playing AD Carry which had been the core of the team since spring of 2014 also came to an end after that year’s worlds. As well as Counter Logic Gaming finally securing the NA title, and the last season Doublelift adorned a CLG jersey.

2015 was also a season which saw the consistently inconsistent rise of unimpressive teams. The previously mentioned Cloud9 struggled routinely throughout the spring which saw teams like the newly re branded Team Liquid (formerly Curse), CLG, and Gravity rise in the ranks due to troubled but promising new rosters. However, these teams all eventually proved unable to dethrone a late surging C9 and consistent TSM; both of whom had failed to make substantial marks on the international stage. Team Solo Mid took first place at IEM Katowice, thanks in part to the GE-Tigers choking in the semis, and went on to win the spring split only to be dismantled on the international stage at the first Mid-Season Invitational.

The parallels between 2018 and 2015 continue to grow as we are approaching the 2018 North American finals. The fear that many within the community have is region’s international performance at worlds will echo that of 2015.

2018 saw a return to the best of one format that NA LCS has enacted during the majority of its existence. While this has contributed to the volatility of the standings within the region during the regular seasons it is not the only reason. During both the spring and summer splits it was possible to have a five-way tie for second place at the end of the split. This one detail highlights the fact there is little to no hierarchy within the region.

Within other seasons there has typically been a clear qualitative hierarchy of teams in each region. Examples of these include TSM/Immortals in the summer of 2016 or C9/TSM in 2014. To suggest a hierarchy is not to say all teams on the same level of the hierarchy are of exact equal skill. Instead it is to suggest there are qualitative thresholds within the level of play exhibited by each team to gain access to the next level of the hierarchy. Teams who were not able to properly execute specific aspects of a laneswap during 2015, such as proper coordination between their bottom lane’s first back and their Jungler arriving to the lane at the same time, were qualitatively worse than teams who could. Likewise, teams who could coordinate properly for a first tower take in the laneswap, but could not then reset their lanes and reposition for the second tower take were worse than those that could; so on and so on. In 2018, as in 2015, there has been little to no such hierarchy.

In 2015 the top two teams during the end of both splits appeared to be only marginally more adept than the teams in 3rd — 6th. In spring of that year Cloud9 nearly lost to TL in the quarterfinals. C9 did manage to pull out the victory in a 3–2 reverse sweep, but it highlighted the fact that C9, who perhaps should have lost that series, were on the same level of the hierarchy as Liquid.

In Summer the problem was even worse. Team Liquid had claimed first place only to fall 3–1 to the fifth place TSM, at the time their worse placing ever. TSM who were then clobbered 3–0 in the finals to the second place CLG. Then, Cloud9 defeated Gravity, Team Impulse, and Team Liquid in the gauntlet after placing 7th during the regular season. Two of those three series ended in 3–2 reverse sweeps in Cloud9’s favor.

In 2015 it was obvious that North American teams did not have a large amount of qualitative difference between the bulk of their teams. Whenever a region experiences little qualitative variance like NA experienced in 2015 their international performance suffers. There are examples of this within other regions. China in 2015 summer specifically experienced a large amount of qualitative variance when LDG, a troubled super-team, stunned everyone and won the summer split. LGD, EDG, and IG all went on to display lackluster performances at the 2015 world championship, LDG famously losing all three of their week one matches in what was supposed to be an “easy” group for the super team relatively speaking. In 2014 Europe also experienced a similar lack of qualitative hierarchy which resulted in no EU team making it out of the group stage.

The similarities between 2015 and now give rise to the suspicion that the three North American representatives, whoever they end up being, will all fail to secure top two in their group. For one thing, many of the same players present on the 2015 NA squads have returned for the 2018 discussion. Though nothing is set in stone, Team Liquid are all but guaranteed to be one of the three NA teams to make it to worlds. Doublelift, Pobelter, and Xmithie were all on the CLG 2015 team which failed to make it out of “the group of life” at that year’s worlds.

The qualitative variance between Team Liquid and the rest of the league in 2018 is less than CLG’s was in 2015. Though there is the saving grace that CLG did not put on display how much better they were than they rest of the league until winning both of their playoff series 3–0; something Team Liquid can still do. Sneaky and Jensen were present on the Cloud9 roster which went 3–0 in the first week of 2015 and 0–4 in the second week in what was ultimately another manageable group. C9 have also shown a tremendous amount of struggle in the summer split, just as they did in 2015. The difference now being instead of 3 veterans who largely lost their individual competitive edge the team has 3 rookies who lack the experience on the international stage.

Team Solo Mid are still in a good position to be one of the three teams to represent the region at worlds. Especially after their victory over another favorite Echo Fox; a team with their own glaring problems. Though Bjergsen is the only remaining member from the TSM of three years earlier the rest of his team have their own group stage worries. Hauntzer and Bjerg have failed to make it out of the group stage two years in a row together. Their bottom laners Zven and Mithy have also been unable to make it into the round of eight since their departure from Origen in spring of 2016. The team’s two Junglers have both never even played on the worlds stage before and are untested against the international competition.

The two quarterfinal series that happened last weekend, especially TSM vs FOX, have not quelled suspicions the region is in for trouble at worlds. Both series saw one team being proactive and making plays which the other team largely reacted to. Both 100 Thieves and TSM, the teams who largely reacted, both came out victorious. FOX and FLY were unable to consistently execute plays that would net them an advantage or failed to push their advantages to victory.

The troubling thing about North American teams who react to their opponents is they historically have not faired well on the international stage. TSM has more or less tried this approach in the several of its worlds runs and failed each and every time. The same can be said of CLG 2015, which 100T are shockingly similar to in terms of playstyle, who also opted for a passive approach. Only teams who are willing to make plays and be aggressive have come out of the group stage. The one exception to this rule would be Cloud9 of 2016 who also largely played a passive game. However, even that C9 was close to not exiting the group and only after slowly grinding a victory out of China’s Team I-May did they end week 2 with a 1–2 record and exit the group.

The low quality of play exhibited by all four teams last weekend leaves a few possibilities for NA. One: C9 and Team Liquid exhibit higher levels of play in the semis, restoring faith in NA’’s chances at worlds. Or two: TSM and 100T will dramatically improve their level of play by the time worlds gets underway. There are several more outcomes of course, but these are the simplest; and most likely.

The biggest saving grace to this doomsday outcome would be the fact that this entire year of NA LCS has been largely unpredictable.

Medium.com/oddoman

Twitter: Oddoman