All eyes are on Britain. The burgeoning Brexit claims by Eurosceptic backbenchers and politicians pursuing hidden agendas have not only fed the looming threat of EU fragmentation, they have also sapped investors’ confidence and led them to postpone their strategic decisions over the past few months.

I will comment neither on the likelihood of Brexit nor on its impact on the Luxembourg economy – which is impossible anyway, owing to the multifaceted links between our two countries and because we simply don’t know how the trade relationships between the EU and the UK would look post-Brexit.

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After Ireland, Luxembourg is estimated by some to be the EU state second most vulnerable to the impact of a Brexit in certain key economic respects. However, other organisations rank it in 14th place, in related terms. So there is an array of potential outcomes and outlooks. If one thing is certain, though, it is the fact that the UK and the EU would enter uncharted territory. No EU member state has ever made use of article 50 of the treaty on the European Union. Nobody has so far dared let that genie out of the bottle.

As one of the six founding members of the EU, and one of its three capitals, Luxembourg is deeply concerned about the idea of a British departure, which would herald an extended period of uncertainties. It would trigger complex and heavy negotiation rounds with the remaining 27 member states – if only as regards trade agreements and further access to the single market.

You will find few countries more convinced of the merits of European integration than Luxembourg: 30 years ago our population was the first to be awarded the international Charlemagne prize for work done in the service of the EU. Today 77% of the population is convinced that the country is better in than out of Europe.

Anyone who has worked, lived or stayed in Luxembourg will tell you how this friendly relationship translates into action. Foreign workers (cross-border workers from our three neighbouring countries, as well as foreign residents) account for no less than 72% of our total workforce. This has proved highly beneficial for the economy: the mix of multilingual and multijurisdictional expertise is hard to beat.

Our large and multitalented pool of competencies supports a wide-ranging supply chain of lawyers, accountants, IT specialists, finance analysts, researchers, industrialists, retailers, craftsmen and other professionals. They in turn help develop new niche markets and launch innovative startups. Besides, the EU absorbs 84% of Luxembourg’s exports. Free movement of goods and services has thus become the very heartbeat of the EU.

This is the Luxembourg key to success: the unique blend of its cooperative culture, its capacity to identify game-changing European legislation and its strong ambition to become a pioneer in the financial industry, in ICT and in the field of logistics. Luxembourg has earned its reputation as a first mover.

Talking about gains, the EU is currently depriving itself of a potential €1.6tn – roughly the GDP of France – which could derive from deeper (single) market integration. Representing 13% of the EU’s population and 17% of its GDP, the exit of Britain, the EU’s second largest economy, would be a major setback and would undermine the foundation of our 500 million-plus-strong internal market.

This would, of course, also be an impediment to growth for a mass exporter such as Luxembourg. The UK is our second largest EU partner for exports of services and first for imports of services, the first EU investor in Luxembourg as well as our top destination for investment flows. In addition, the UK accounts for 16.4% of all net assets under management in Luxembourg and is sixth in terms of bank representation.

The interplay between Britain and Luxembourg is striking, especially in the financial industry, and this leads to the question of whether Brexit-induced bank relocations would eventually benefit Luxembourg.

According to a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers study, withdrawal could cause a loss of up to 100,000 jobs in financial services in the UK by 2020. It didn’t take long until the first financial companies started flirting with the idea of shifting certain activities to Luxembourg in case Brexit were to materialise. A member of the euro area with a multilingual and experienced workforce, just a stone’s throw away from London, Frankfurt and Paris, with Luxembourg’s future Fintech incubator about to take off: all the conditions are fulfilled.

Yet two elements merit greater attention. First, our competitors are not twiddling their thumbs. HSBC has announced that it might transfer 1,000 jobs from London to Paris, and Deutsche Bank’s first choice would be – of course – Frankfurt. But even if all London-based financial institutions making their own Brexit were equally shared between the three “candidates”, how could Luxembourg cope with the demographic shock and with the resulting pressure on housing prices and public infrastructures?

Also, what lies in store for the 2,200 Brits working in Luxembourg and the British EU civil servants? What to expect for Luxembourg if other member states asked for a special deal? The list of questions goes on and on.

The bottom lin e is that a Brexit would weaken the EU as a whole. But rather than speculating about the degree of nastiness of the potential divorce, we should address the EU’s current shortcomings. Why has the EU become such a difficult sell? The British referendum can be a starting point for a more efficient questioning of the way the EU is run. On 23 June, Luxembourg will celebrate National Day – while hoping that it will end on a positive, European note.