Indeed, the COVID-19 virus smacked into Ottawa's real estate industry just as it was scaling rarely seen peaks. Residential resale prices had soared 20 per cent year over year in January and February, the highest such gains in nearly four decades.

By rights, Ottawa’s real estate industry should be flat on its back. It’s a sector that relies heavily on buyers with secure jobs, direct personal contact and confidence in the future.

Yet, despite all the pernicious effects of social distancing, including lost jobs, shrinking wages and disappearing revenues in core parts of the economy, the past week has been anything but quiet.

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“In the last seven days, we’ve seen 576 new listings, 119 of them in the past 24 hours,” says Bill Meyer, owner of HomeTeamOttawa, a real estate firm that markets services under the Remax Hallmark Realty banner. “We are still in this period of pent up demand.”

Indeed, the COVID-19 virus smacked into Ottawa’s real estate industry just as it was scaling rarely seen peaks. Residential resale prices had soared 20 per cent year over year in January and February, the highest such gains in nearly four decades. Residential properties last month sold for a record average $564,000, while condos fetched nearly $350,000.

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Even so, momentum will carry the sector only so far. A reckoning is coming and there’s a whiff of desperation in the air.

“We aren’t doing open houses anymore,” Meyer says, “but this market is strong because some people still have to sell. They’re changing jobs or they’ve already bought a house and need to sell to pay for it.”

Photo by Handout photo / Remax

It could be a much different picture once all these urgent sales clear the market. “This could all come to a screeching halt,” Meyers observes. “I can’t imagine people listing their homes in this (COVID-19) environment unless they have to.”

Certainly working conditions have changed. The firm’s 15 agents and staff are working out of their homes . Meyers goes to the office for a couple of hours each morning and evening, when he is the only one there, and catches up with colleagues by phone or email.

Like many other real estate firms, Meyer’s company has stringent protocols in place. Agents still arrange showings, but there can be no overlap of potential buyers. Hand sanitizers or wipes must be available, and all inside doors must be kept open so no one has to touch surfaces.

Meyer on Tuesday arranged an estate sale in which all papers were signed electronically.

It’s a similar scene at Paul Rushforth Real Estate, an agency with 13 realtors. “We’ve closed our offices, but our front desk is still taking queries from home,” Rushforth says. “We’re not doing open houses, and showings (of houses) are just one person at a time.”

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Rushforth says he has been surprised by the briskness of sales activity this past week, but can see underlying weakness. As with Meyer, many of his company’s new listings are from people who absolutely need the cash after buying another house earlier and fully expecting to pay for it by selling their existing home into a hot market.

So far prices are holding up, but Rushforth notes some telling patterns. “We’re still seeing bidding wars for properties,” he says, “including more than half our ten most recent deals.” But he notes that a property that might have attracted 10 bids early in March now gets just two or three. This, in turn, means sellers are not getting as much over their initial asking price. “This week we listed a property for $699,000 and it sold for $708,000,” Rushforth explains, “Two weeks ago, it would have got $770,000.”

Photo by Wayne Cuddington / Postmedia

John King, the broker manager for Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central, says he also notices the start of a shift. On Thursday evening, he fielded six offers for a property at 480 Brennan Ave., in the Hampton Park district. It sold almost immediately for $747,000, more than $100,000 over the original listing price.

On Friday, though, he was somewhat surprised to discover there were still no requests for showings for two new listings in the highly popular district of Westboro. “It’s day by day now,” King says.

For the moment, Engel & Völkers is keeping its Ottawa offices open with a skeleton staff. “There’s just one employee per floor,” King says, adding he is also making greater use of video by doing tours of his listings through Facebook. If people like what they see virtually, they can sign up for a showing in person, “one group at a time.”

The difference between what was and what will be in Ottawa’s real estate market promises to be stark.

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