Rough night for me with the Skiles rotation we shouldn’t ever trust. Yep…..he got me. That and early foul trouble apparently. Oh well, these slates happen. I still posted 290 when the lines were around 304 so I can’t be too pissed. Hopefully, you fared a bit better. We have a whopper of an 11-game slate tonight, which means the Army will have to be on point to knock one over the fence. Personally, it’s slates like these I’m not the most confident yet. My plan on 10-game slates and larger is to simply look for the smaller mini-slates within. Express slates and Late Night slates are where I’ll be if I can find one in my sweet spot of 5-8 games. If you have trouble with larger, full slates I definitely recommend you do the same thing. Your inventory of Pepto Bismol will thank you. For the VIP Insiders, the write-up coming later and the cheatsheets will be covering the slate in it’s entirety, not a cut down version. I don’t want there being any confusion in that regard.

I do have an Army LU from Monday’s slate. This was another good one posted by @tonetaylor. A 350 and a coinciding bink of a 100man league for a 20x ROI is never a bad thing. In the Army, we are big fans of smaller GPP-type events. This is a great example of why. Look at what 352 gave our comrade in the 100man league…..then, look at what it gave him in the Shot. I’ll take $6 over $100 any day of the week and twice on Wednesday. We won’t ever advocate avoiding bigger GPPs entirely. We are trying to inform our privates that your ROI will thank you by putting the majority of your league/gpp entries in the smaller stuff that’s easier to take down with near nut LUs instead of needing the absolute nuts. Either way, it’s a great LU from @tonetaylor!

Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.

Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.

VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen 4 or more. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.

Road Team Home Team Favorite Spread Total Tip-Off Charlotte Hornets (30-28) at Philadelphia 76ers (8-52) TBD TBD TBD 7:00 PM Chicago Bulls (30-28) at Orlando Magic (26-32) ORL -3 209 7:00 PM Utah Jazz (28-31) at Toronto Raptors (39-19) TOR -6 194 7:30 PM Portland Trail Blazers (32-28) at Boston Celtics (36-25) BOS -5 219 7:30 PM New Orleans Pelicans (23-35) at Houston Rockets (29-31) TBD TBD TBD 8:00 PM Sacramento Kings (24-34) at Memphis Grizzlies (35-24) TBD TBD TBD 8:00 PM Indiana Pacers (31-29) at Milwaukee Bucks (25-35) IND -2 202.5 8:00 PM Washington Wizards (29-30) at Minnesota Timberwolves (19-41) WAS -4 220 8:00 PM Detroit Pistons (31-29) at San Antonio Spurs (50-9) SA -10.5 200.5 8:30 PM Los Angeles Lakers (11-49) at Denver Nuggets (23-37) DEN -7 211.5 9:00 PM Oklahoma City Thunder (42-18) at Los Angeles Clippers (39-20) LAC -1 220.5 10:30 PM

POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.

Team Offense Opponent Team Total PPG Team +/- New Orleans Pelicans HOU TBD 102.9 TBD Sacramento Kings MEM TBD 107.2 TBD Houston Rockets NO TBD 105.7 TBD Memphis Grizzlies SAC TBD 99.1 TBD Philadelphia 76ers CHA TBD 96.4 TBD Charlotte Hornets PHI TBD 101.5 TBD Washington Wizards MIN 112 103 9 Denver Nuggets LAL 109.3 100.8 8.5 Minnesota Timberwolves WAS 108 101.1 6.9 Boston Celtics POR 112 106 6 Los Angeles Clippers OKC 110.8 105 5.8 Orlando Magic CHI 106 100.8 5.2 Los Angeles Lakers DEN 102.3 97.5 4.8 Portland Trail Blazers BOS 107 103.6 3.4 Chicago Bulls ORL 103 101.6 1.4 Milwaukee Bucks IND 100.3 99.1 1.2 San Antonio Spurs DET 105.5 105 0.5 Indiana Pacers MIL 102.3 102.3 0 Detroit Pistons SA 95 101.8 -6.8 Utah Jazz TOR 94 98 -4 Toronto Raptors UTA 100 102.3 -2.3 Oklahoma City Thunder LAC 109.8 110.3 -0.5

PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.

Team Offense Opponent Pace Proj. Pace Pace +/- Memphis Grizzlies SAC 95.3 99.7 4.4 Portland Trail Blazers BOS 97.7 101.2 3.5 Minnesota Timberwolves WAS 97.1 99.4 2.3 Charlotte Hornets PHI 97.6 99.8 2.2 New Orleans Pelicans HOU 98.6 100.4 1.8 Los Angeles Clippers OKC 98.3 99.7 1.4 Milwaukee Bucks IND 96.7 98.1 1.4 Orlando Magic CHI 97.3 98 0.7 Houston Rockets NO 99.8 100.4 0.6 Oklahoma City Thunder LAC 99.4 99.7 0.3 Denver Nuggets LAL 98.1 98.3 0.2 Los Angeles Lakers DEN 98.2 98.3 0.1 Boston Celtics POR 101.5 101.2 -0.3 Philadelphia 76ers CHA 100.2 99.8 -0.4 San Antonio Spurs DET 96.4 96 -0.4 Chicago Bulls ORL 98.7 98 -0.7 Washington Wizards MIN 100.3 99.4 -0.9 Indiana Pacers MIL 99.4 98.1 -1.3 Detroit Pistons SA 97.6 96 -1.6 Utah Jazz TOR 93.4 90.8 -2.6 Sacramento Kings MEM 102.4 99.7 -2.7 Toronto Raptors UTA 95.4 90.8 -4.6

TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the CHA C is, theoretically, in great spot.

Team Defense Opponent TotalFPA vs. PG vs. SG vs. SF vs. PF vs. C Los Angeles Lakers Denver 30 30 28 29 23 28 Sacramento Kings Memphis 29 26 30 24 29 20 Philadelphia 76ers Charlotte 28 24 15 28 28 30 Houston Rockets New Orleans 27 14 22 30 30 16 Chicago Bulls Orlando 26 28 14 23 21 25 Denver Nuggets L.A. Lakers 24 23 27 15 25 19 Milwaukee Bucks Indiana 22 7 26 25 22 12 New Orleans Pelicans Houston 21 16 25 12 15 29 Orlando Magic Chicago 20 20 4 20 18 10 Charlotte Hornets Philadelphia 19 13 13 22 24 15 Washington Wizards Minnesota 18 15 24 26 8 12 Minnesota Timberwolves Washington 15 22 21 18 9 8 Portland Trail Blazers Boston 13 17 19 5 19 26 Boston Celtics Portland 12 1 8 19 27 27 Oklahoma City Thunder L.A. Clippers 10 21 23 8 10 5 Indiana Pacers Milwaukee 9 10 16 6 13 14 Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City 8 4 9 9 7 22 Detroit Pistons San Antonio 7 11 12 2 12 9 Memphis Grizzlies Sacramento 6 9 4 13 11 2 Toronto Raptors Utah 5 3 11 4 3 18 Utah Jazz Toronto 2 8 2 3 1 3 San Antonio Spurs Detroit 1 5 1 1 5 4

Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.

BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphic containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.

Team B2B 2of3 3of4 4of5 Atlanta Boston Yes Brooklyn Yes Charlotte Yes Yes Yes Chicago Yes Cleveland Dallas Denver Yes Detroit Golden State Houston Yes Indiana Yes Yes L.A. Clippers Yes L.A. Lakers Yes Memphis Yes Miami Milwaukee Yes Minnesota New Orleans New York Oklahoma City Yes Orlando Yes Yes Yes Philadelphia Yes Yes Phoenix Portland Yes Yes Yes Yes Sacramento Yes San Antonio Toronto Utah Yes Washington Yes Yes

Here is where I use this graph again. As you saw from yesterday, there is some evidence supporting players not performing in back-to-back games. On an 11-game slate where you need to be on point in all your player picks, I think this graphic becomes more important. If you look at the CHI @ ORL game, you may see a decent total and a close spread. You may become seduced by everyone else being on other, larger games. It’s your call, but I’m fading this game entirely since both are on B2B games. Yesterday’s evidence shows you may still do well, but it’s pretty much a coin flip across historical study. I don’t feel I can flip coins on full slates. At least not in cash games. Tourney fliers might be fine, but I don’t think a lot of people watch this “exhaustion news,” if you want to call it that. So, I don’t think this tidbit of knowledge really affects the crowd/herd much. I’d also be watching POR for obvious reasons. Portland is paced up, pointed up, and in a nice total/spread with the freaking BOS front court we love to target. But………4 games in 5 nights? I’m not so sure I want to take the increased chances with the Blazers on a road trip across the country on a full slate. On a 4-game slate, I’d likely have no choice. My point is that today you have choices. Look closely at them and choose wisely. I have not looked at this slate deeply yet, so I may actually come back to them before it’s all said and done, but for this early recon my antennae are certainly up for a possible trap situation.

If you made it this far, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:

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Bankroll Challenge results for week of Feb 22, 2016…..

Date Score Money IN Money Out Profit/Loss Adjusted Bankroll Mon – 22 316.6 5 9.5 4.5 66.3 Tues – 23 278.8 14 17.3 3.3 69.6 Wed – 24 286.3 16 14 -2 67.6 Thurs – 25 328 12 37.1 25.1 92.7 Fri – 26 298.6 10 17.9 7.9 100.6 Mon-29 332.6 19 45 26 126.6 Tues-1 289.9 14 1.9 -12.1 114.5

This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets……now with Sample Cash LUs! (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)