In this age and time even victories and failures have changed. There is no absolute or sudden victory or failure. But the current circumstances in the Kurdistan Region may lead to the failure of the Kurdish ambitions unless there is an agreement to end the existing political disputes.

The Kurds would not return to the pre-1991 days, but the political divisions may lead to a clear administrational split which would first of all kill the goal of holding a referendum on independence and the region’s current recognized status. The cause of all this is the big political parties of the Kurdistan Region. It will be a total failure which would be exploited before anyone else by Baghdad.



The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.







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The Kurds have been brave fighters who have always won on the battlefield but lost politically. Now that the world and the Kurds themselves watch and await the final outcome of the war against the Islamic State (ISIS), domestic political disputes have, unfortunately, put the region on the path to ruin. The political divide will have the Kurds come out of this war empty-handed.The real fear emerged after a recent gathering in Algeria for a new deal between Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. But on the other hand, the failure of the military coup attempt in Turkey was in the Kurds’ best interest. The failed coup postponed such a treaty to a certain extent and gave the Kurds another chance. Though the risk is still there. But if the disputing Kurdish parties come to an agreement of their own, no foreign treaty would be able to threaten the opportunity we have.The four neighboring countries have come together and rally behind their distaste for the possible breakup of countries in the region, namely Iraq and Syria while Kurdish parties are banging their heads against the walls of a narrow circle of internal rivalry.The anticipated Mosul operation will also be decisive for the future of Iraq and the Shiite-Sunni, Shiite-Kurdish, Kurdish-Sunni relations. All sides try now to ensure themselves as the future rulers of Post-ISIS Mosul and that is because the future of Iraq is to a large extent tied to how and who runs that city. Will it be a pro-Baghdad Shiite rule or anti-all Sunni rule? Or a Sunni rule friendly to Kurds and Christians?The latter would be best for the Christians and Kurds as Baghdad and its allies see Mosul as a shield against Turkey and a stepping stone into western Kurdistan (Rojava). This scenario would pose a great threat to Kurdistan Region and Rojava as well as Turkey.After 1991 the Kurds changed the perception that they were good warriors and bad politicians. But the situation of now is more delicate. Back then and in 2003, despite the flaws, Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, managed to leave their mark on the history of the region. The Kurds didn’t fail politically. On the contrary, they succeeded and created a Kurdish counterbalance in Iraq which aimed at solving the Kurdish question through federalism.Now though, Barzani’s aim is higher and that is complete independence of Kurdistan through referendum, a path that no super or regional power can oppose or hamper. Such independence would be the outcome of countries falling apart by sectarian wars and because it will be held peacefully. Barzani for his part is seen as the hero of the ISIS war. His commanding role in this war has reached other parts of Kurdistan, too as was seen in Kobani.But due to the sociopolitical division in Kurdistan, Barzani needs a partner to take the place of Talabani and that partner could only be Nawshirwan Mustafa (head of Gorran movement) in Sulaimani who enjoys a strong social and political weight. This is especially true when the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is unable—due to its own internal disputes—to settle any political cases or get into a separate deal with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). No PUK leader can make a move or decision that would be honored by all in his party whereas Gorran under Mustafa has been able to do just that.In the past two years much damage has been done to the democratic institutions of the Kurdistan Region, but the political rivalries will bring even bigger national disasters. That’s why putting aside the small details and reaching an agreement on the bigger strategic questions could save the Kurdistan Region from collapse. The political parties will be the sole responsible for any failure because the ordinary people have for their endured everything quietly and with much resilience in the past two years. It would be a shame to let the blood and sacrifices of such a people go for nothing.