Picking a quarterback for your fantasy squad is tricky business, especially because a quarterback’s real-life performance doesn’t always translate to fantasy. In many cases, the value of a fantasy quarterback can skyrocket or plummet from year to year, not necessarily mean because he is playing that much better or worse than he did the year before, but because his role in the offense may have been adjusted. Sometimes, a variable — like a big name free agent signing — can totally change the dynamic of an offense in unpredictable ways. Eddie Lacy’s emergence could take pressure off of Aaron Rodgers so he can be a more effective passer, or it could result in less pass attempts for Rodgers. Will Ray Rice’s suspension mean Flacco passes more, and therefore puts up better stats, or will defenses put more of an emphasis on stopping the pass since there is no threat of a run game? These changes happen every offseason to every team, and the end result is nearly impossible to predict with accuracy.

This is all fantasy football 101, and you’re probably rolling your eyes at me right now, but I’m just trying to make the point that great quarterbacks aren’t always great fantasy quarterbacks, and vise versa. Solid fantasy quarterback play is just as dependent on a players situation as their actual ability.

That being said, here’s what I think about drafting fantasy quarterbacks this year: if you don’t take one early (like Manning, Rodgers, Brees, or maybe Stafford), then you should wait until at least round 8 or so. This doesn’t mean that I don’t like the idea of Andrew Luck as my fantasy quarterback, but in a year where running backs are slim pickings, it’s the smart move to fill out your two RB slots (and maybe your flex) as early as possible. Besides, there is a lot of value in guys like Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler, who tend to fall farther than they probably should.

Without further ado, here are the 10 quarterbacks I am the most confident in for the 2014 fantasy season:

Peyton Manning – Odds say that Peyton is not going to have the same superhuman stats that he did last year, but he’s still Peyton Manning. He lost Eric Decker and gained Emmanuel Sanders, but that’s about it. Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas are both top-3 options at their positions for fantasy purposes this year, and Wes Welker is still on the team (although concussed for the time being). I see no real reason for substantial regression with Manning, and I expect him to be the best bet to lead the NFL in fantasy scoring again. Drew Brees – to me, it’s a toss-up for the no.2 spot between Brees and Rodgers. Outside of Matt Stafford, Brees throws the ball more than anyone in the league. Brees has had over 650 pass attempts the past 4 seasons, and Rodgers has never had more than 550. We can assume that Brees will throw just about as many balls as he did last year, which means he gets about 100 more chances to throw to Jimmy Graham, or Marquese Colston, or Brandin Cooks, or whoever the hell else he wants to throw to. That’s like if we had a home run derby, and I got100 more swings than you. Doesn’t even sound fair, does it? Aaron Rodgers – We all know what kind of quarterback Aaron Rodgers can be when he’s healthy. Although I have him as the third best, you could really argue him for either of the top two spots. In Rodgers’ absence last year, Eddie Lacy really established himself as a big piece of the Packers offense. This added dynamic of an effective run game should take some pressure off Rodgers. I expect about 40 touchdowns out of Rodgers in 2014 Matthew Stafford – The Lions picked up Golden Tate this offseason, which helps for a number of reasons. Either Tate will take pressure off of Calvin Johnson (probably not), or he will flourish as Johnson draws the focus of the defense (more likely). Reggie Bush is a great contributor out of the backfield, and Pettigrew and Ebron are both viable passing options at tight end. I like Stafford as the fourth best fantasy quarterback, because he throws more passes than anyone in football, and he is surrounded by talent. Matt Ryan – People seem to forget how effective the Falcons offense was when their wideouts were healthy. Two years ago, Ryan was a top three fantasy quarterback, but he seems to be flying under the radar. He’ll throw the ball around 600 times this year to two Pro Bowl wide receivers while playing in a weak division. That sounds like a recipe for success to me. Andrew Luck – Luck has essentially been asked to carry his team since he was drafted two years ago. He proved himself capable of this workload with a productive 2013 and a surprise victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. If Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw can provide some type of balance to the Colts offense, Luck will prosper. Oh, and he probably plays in the weakest division in football Jay Cutler – Cutler is going to be the steal of the year for a lot of people who wisely filled out their other roster spots and managed to snag him somewhere around the 10th round. Cutler is projected to be the 12th or so best fantasy quarterback this year, but if he can stay healthy (which is no small thing to assume), he’s primed to have the best season of his career. In my opinion, he has the potential to be better than everyone outside of that Manning-Brees-Rodgers group. If he didn’t get injured last year, and he maintained the same level of play, he would have finished with something like 3812 yards, 27 touchdowns and a 63% completion percentage. Those are top-10 quarterback numbers and there’s reason to believe he’ll improve on them this year, now that Trestman’s system has had another year to develop. I’m very high on Cutler this year. If you haven’t drafted yet, you should try to snatch him up in the 8th/9th round, or immediately after guys like Romo-RG3-Rivers start to go. If you’ve already drafted, make a trade for him. I’m telling you, Jay Cutler could not be better set up for a career year. Phillip Rivers — Rivers had a great comeback year in 2013, and things are only going to get better this season. Coach McCoy’s offense is going into year two, and given the renaissance of Rivers and Mathews last year, there is reason to believe they will continue to grow. Expect Keenan Allen and Rivers to light it up in San Diego. Nick Foles — Foles is a smart, talented quarterback who is in a perfect situation. He really grew up last year in Chip Kelly’s offense where he had a bunch of talented guys around him, LeSean McCoy being the best of them. Foles won’t be as efficient this year — you can’t expect a starting quarterback to only throw 2 interceptions in a season, that’s ridiculous. I expect Coach Kelly to give Foles a much longer leash this season, and with the return of Jeremy Maclin, I think he’ll put up some very impressive stats on a week-to-week basis. Robert Griffin III — I almost went with Andy Dalton on this one, but RG3 has much bigger upside. Given the disappointing year he had last year, I really like his odds to bounce back in 2014. Also, Dalton’s old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden is now the play caller in Washington, and I attribute much of Cincinnati’s passing success last year to him. DeSean Jackson is another reason why the Washington offense will be a lot different. His presence changes Pierre Garcon’s role, and his ability to stretch the field could do a lot for the running game — including RG3. He won’t be worse than last year, and he is in a better setting than he was during his outstanding rookie year.

Honorable Mention: Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo

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