Who else will ride.

22 wave surfing candidates.

One of the most important things in a wave election is that some surprising candidates end up riding the wave to success. But even those candidates must cling to some sort of surfboard to reach victorious shores on election night. The DCCC has 78 pick up seats on its Red to Blue List. Here is my estimation of the next most likely 22 seats, which would bring us to 100 races within range. The list is in order based on my assessment of the most promising races.

1.CA 22nd

Andrew Janz https://www.andrewjanzforcongress.com



The DCCC’s refusal to play here is truly dispiriting. Devin Nunes is the ring leader of the efforts to muddy the waters with respect to the Russia investigations. This is also a district where Clinton lost by less than 10%. The Democrat Andrew Janz https://www.andrewjanzforcongress.com is well-qualified and is raising lots and lots of money. This will no doubt be a tough race, but with the kind of resources Janz already has, we need to keep pushing here.

2. CA 50th

Ammar Campa-Najjar https://www.campacampaign.com/

This race did just have a bad poll recently. Using the most generous model, it had Campa-Najjar down by 8 points, 49% to 41%. But the significant reason for hope here, is that a large number of voters, 23%, remain unaware of Duncan Hunter’s recent indictment for misusing campaign cash. Spreading the word provides a chance for the Democrat. This new information was enough for Cook to call it merely Lean Republican. The DCCC should add to Red to Blue.

3.IA 4

J.D. Scholten https://www.scholten4iowa.com/

Steve King, the Republican Congressman here, is basically a White Nationalist disgrace. Democrat J.D. Scholten has outraised him and as of the last reporting period had twice the cash on hand. J.D. Scholten cuts an interesting profile as an ex-minor league baseball player and paralegal. This has been an exceptionally red seat, but it was very close back in the 2008 race. Democrats are doing well in the Governor’s race, and an internal poll has shown the race close. Steve King is so bad that we need to be pushing really hard.

4.VA 5

Leslie Cockburn https://www.lesliecockburnforcongress.com/

This is one race that I don’t quite understand not being on the Red to Blue List. It is an open seat in a district that has enough Democratic bona fides to at least be considered. It includes all of the University of Virginia and its environs, while the rest of the district is admittedly pretty red. Still there always too few open seats, and Leslie is raising enough money to be competitive. This seat also benefits from the top of the ticket disaster of gubernatorial candidate Corey Stewart with no other big race to drive voters to the polls.

5. NY 2

Liuba Grechen Shirley https://www.liubaforcongress.com/

This is an important sleeper race. It was just placed on the Cook board as a likely R seat. It voted for Obama twice, before breaking unpleasantly for Trump. The Incumbent Peter King has been there forever, but his pugnacious attitude may finally be wearing thin. Democrats had monster turnouts in the primary here, and won a recent, special election in the region. Our candidate, Liuba Grechen Shirley, won an impressive primary victory and got the FEC to rule that child care is an allowable campaign expense. This might be my favorite sleeper of the cycle.

6. NY 27

Nate McMurray https://votemcmurray.com/

The incumbent Republican Chris Collins is running under indictment for insider trading, after first declaring he was not going to run again. This puts him a very difficult position. The district is absolutely blood red. But one wrinkle that is being missed is that there is a third-party candidate, Larry Piegza, who is clearly on the Right. Finding a way to improve his name recognition might be enough to let the Democrat skate by with a number in the low 40’s. We need to watch this quarter’s numbers to see if McMurray is gaining the resources he needs to compete.

7. TX 22

Sri Preston Kulkarni https://www.kulkarniforcongress.com/

This is basically a question of how much is Texas changing? Cook put this race on the Board because of the strength of Beto O’Rourke’s Senate campaign. This is Tom Delay’s old seat, but it is trending more and more Democratic. Hillary Clinton only lost by eight points. This is another place where we need to monitor the Democratic fundraising surge, because if Kulkarni has enough money to communicate, he just might win.

8. OH 10

Theresa Gasper https://www.gasperforcongress.com/

This is another seat where victory depends upon a wave. Trump won only 51% here in 2016, his worst performance among GOP held seats in Ohio. Democrats have nominated Theresa Gasper, a perfectly solid candidate backed by both Emily’s List and End Citizens United. Their support suggests some grounds for hope in second tier races.

9. AK At-Large

Alyse Gavin https://www.alyse4alaska.com/

Republican Don Young is really just way too old and past his prime. Alyse Gavin is running a noteworthy if not spectacular race against him. This race is particularly interesting because as Alaska begins to urbanize a bit, it is also becoming mildly more Democratic. Trump took a not particularly impressive 51.3% of the vote in Alaska, with a very large % going to independents. The Democrat challenging Don Young is technically running as Independent but on the Democratic line. This is an interesting contrast race that bears watching.

10. CO 3

Diane Mitch Busch https://dianeforcolorado.com/

This is the Colorado wave seat. Three seats in the Rocky Mountain State are solid Democratic. Two are solidly Republican. One is currently held by a Republican but leans Democratic, and then there is this seat. It gave Trump 52% of the vote, but this translated into a 12% win, with only 40% for Clinton. This seat came very close to voting for Obama in 2008, but didn’t. Still the Democratic candidate is a solid one in State Rep. Diane Mitch Busch. This is an interesting race to keep an eye on.

11. AZ 6

Anita Malik https://anitaforarizona.com/

This is another trend to watch because this district is the next Arizona seat with a plausible chance to become Democratic, after the 5 that previously have been on the watch list this summer. This seat’s presence is based somewhat on the performance of Hiral Tipirneni, in a special election in a nearby but much redder seat. Trump won this seat (AZ 6) by 10%, whereas the special that produced a surprisingly close 6 point margin was held in AZ8, a Trump 21% margin seat. Anita Malik is not a bad candidate, but we will need to see her fundraising before she goes any higher on the list.

12. NJ 4

Josh Welle https://welleforcongress.com/

Incumbent Congressman Chris Smith recently injected his foot into his mouth by suggesting that children would be better off in orphanages than being adopted by LGBT parents. No doubt he genuinely believes this, but running in New Jersey means it’s something he probably would like to hide This news, combined with a very strong, relatively well-funded challenge by Josh Welle, puts the Democrat into contention. It is far and away the most Republican district in New Jersey, so the climb is certainly steep, but it’s not impossible.

13. MI 1

Matt Morgan https://mattmorganformichigan.com/

This is an ancestrally Democratic seat, which Barack Obama won in 2008. But it swung massively to Trump in 2016, voting for him by 21.3%. Still, the Democrats have recruited a solid candidate in Matt Morgan, and the Republican Incumbent is just a freshman, who ran with Trump’s coattails.. Democrats as the top of the Michigan ticket are doing quite well and seem unlikely to provide the sort of drag that Hillary Clinton did. This could be a close race. We also wait for more information on fundraising here.

14. NY 21

Tedra Cobb https://www.tedracobb.com/

This seat has the lowest Cook Partisan voting index of R+4, of any seat not on his board. This is not totally surprising because Incumbent Elise Stefanik has been just crushing opponents since she was first elected in 2014. The district also trended away from Democrats in 2016. It voted for Obama by roughly 5% twice but gave Trump a 14% win, and 54% of the vote. Still in a year like this with bones like that, a swing back is not impossible. Stefanik is still relatively new, and her opponent this year has some advantages that previous opponents did not. Whether that has also translated into money remains to be seen.

15. TX 24

Jan McDowell http://www.janmcdowell.com/

This is another Beto-based wave seat. Trump’s margin in this seat was only 6.2%. This makes it the narrowest Trump margin of any seat in Texas held by a Republican (Texas has 3 Clinton won seats all on the Red to Blue list.). The Democrats struggle so far is that Jan McDowell has not been raising much money, making it hard to compete. She really needs help with her surfboard.

16. IN 2

Mel Hall https://www.melforcongress.com/

This district voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and then pretty much dived right off a cliff voting for Romney by 14% and then Trump by 23%. Still this is the former home district of Senator Joe Donnelly, and he can be expected to do well here. The Republican Incumbent, Jackie Walorski, lost to Donnelly in the Republican wave year of 2010, only to find a way to win the seat by a point when Donnelly left it vacant in 2012. She has subsequently been able to achieve relatively large wins but nothing that goes beyond expected partisan splits. Mel Hall has raised decent money, has a good profile and could potentially ride Donnelly to victory.

17. FL 12

Chris Hunter https://www.chrishunterforcongress.com/

This is a late breaking race, that should not be ignored because of the recent endorsements Hunter has received and his appealing bio. Yesterday, he was endorsed by President Obama, which adds to a long string of interest group endorsements that don’t usually go to hopeless challengers. This was a close district in 2008, but McCain won it and then it voted for President Trump by 18.6%. Besides Hunter’s excellent bio, it is hard to see what makes this race competitive, and yet others seem to think it is.

18. MI 3

Cathy Alboro https://cathyalbroforcongress.com/

This seat is tied for 2nd on the list of Cook’s smallest Partisan Voter Index margin for Republicans that Cook still as lists as solid Republican. This seat went for Obama in 2008, and while it has trended a bit Republican, that trend is much less pronounced than other places in Michigan. Trump won it by 9.4%. The Republican Incumbent, Justin Amash, has always been something of an iconoclast with his libertarian views, and his occasional vitriol directed at the President. This puts him outside of his own team and that is vulnerable place to be. Cathy Alboro is a sympathetic House Candidate, but so far she is decently resource poor. Unless she can add resources, he path will be hard. Still this is a seat that Wasserman at Cook, just said he has his eye was on. I have been watching it seriously all cycle.

19. TX 6

Jana Sanchez https://sanchez4texas.com/

This is another late breaking race in an open seat where Beto is devoting serious attention. Jana Sanchez has begun to gather the interest group endorsements, particularly Emily’s List and End Citizens United, which suggests it’s worth a look. As of the last reporting, both campaigns were pretty much flat broke. This quarter should be revealing.

20. WI 7

Marget Engebertson https://www.vetfordemocracy.com/

This is an Obama won 2008 seat, which is really what gets it on this list. It was incredibly close in 2012 as well, with a narrow Romney victory. Than the bottom absolutely fell out, voting for Donald Trump by 20%. This is the sort of seat that could wave back, in a total wave year. It is similar to the Wisconsin 8th, which is omitted here, but our candidate here cuts a slightly more interesting profile, and just came off a primary win. Seeing if she has any resources by the end of the quarter will tell us a lot about whether hope remains.

21.NC 8 Frank McNeil

https://mcneill4congress.com/

This seat is here because Cook has it on their board, but I am not entirely sure why. Frank McNeil cuts a decent profile for the district, but so far has been quite slow at collecting money. The Republican Incumbent does not seem to have much in the way of great sins, and the Trump 15% margin seems brutal. McCain’s 8.6% margin was the closest race in recent years. Since North Carolina has no top of the ticket races this year, it is possible that asymmetrical turnout, considerably more Democrats voting than Republicans, could tip the race. But there remain reasons for skepticism.

22. NC 7

Kyle Horton https://drkyleforcongress.com/

Dr. Kyle Horton has a poll showing her ahead by 4%. That is how this district made this list. It seems likely they are also trying to take advantage of the lack of races on the ballot in North Carolina besides Congress. Still the district’s overall profile is brutal, having voted for Trump by 17.7%. Obama in 2008 lost by a solid 10%. This could easily be the Horton campaign taking us all for a ride. Finances at the end of day will tell us whether we need to pay attention.

Conclusion:

Democrats could easily end up retaking control of the House, yet win none of these seats. But since the DCCC is not clairvoyant, it is important to keep looking to help those who may not have earned the DCCC’s favor. We need to send some surfboards while we are building the wave.