Earlier this week, lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel published our top 200 prospect list. Later that day, I made my FanGraphs debut looking at how the players on that list graded out according to KATOH — my prospect projection system. Now I’m back with more stats-based prospect analysis only this time, I’ve compiled a list of the top 200 minor leaguers ranked by their KATOH projections.

Just to be clear, this list isn’t intended to compete with or undermine Kiley’s rankings in any way. KATOH isn’t meant to be the the final word on prospect evaluation, but should instead be used as a tool to complement the work done by Kiley and other prospect experts. What follows is simply the output of a (flawed) statistical model that’s been sorted from largest to smallest without any sort of adjustment. But while it may be an imperfect exercise, ranking players exclusively by their KATOH projections makes it easy to spot instances where the stats disagree with the general scouting consensus. Even if, as they likely are in many cases, the scouts turn out to be correct, it’s still worth highlighting the players for which there is a significant difference. Some of the guys below are going to prove scouts wrong; figuring out which is the tricky part.

Looking at the two lists side-by-side, there was one recurring theme that really jumped out at me: KATOH favors hitters much more than Kiley did in his list. For instance, a hitter ranked in the 20’s on Kiley’s list gets a KATOH projection of roughly 7 WAR on average, while a pitcher with the same ranking comes in at around 5 WAR. Hopefully a graphic will help visualize this phenomenon:



This trend is pretty stark, but I wouldn’t necessarily take this to mean that Kiley is too aggressive in his rankings of pitchers. Stats alone never tell the whole story, but they tell an especially small piece of the story for pitchers, whose path to major league success depends heavily on the quality of his stuff. Stuff is what differentiates a Felix Hernandez from a soft-tosser like Yusmiero Petit when both are putting up dominant numbers in the minors, and I’d bet that most of the pitchers on Kiley’s top 200 list are more Hernandez than Petit. But KATOH doesn’t know that.

At the top of KATOH’s list is Joc Pederson, who came in at #11 according to Kiley’s rankings. McDaniel slapped a 60 FV on Pederson, which is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but is a couple of notches below elite. KATOH, on the other hand, loves Pederson. It forecasts him for a whopping 18.3 WAR through age 28, putting him a healthy 2.3 WAR ahead of second place Kris Bryant, who was Kiley’s top-rated prospect. For reference, the three most recent outfielders who accumulated 17-20 WAR through age 28 were Carlos Gonzalez, Hunter Pence, and Jacoby Ellsbury Not too shabby.

Statistically, there’s not much not to dislike about Pederson. He hit a crazy .303/.435/.582 with Triple-A Albuquerque as a 22-year-old last year, and kicked in 30 steals to boot. Those numbers are a little inflated by the fact that he played in the Pacific Coast League (PCL), but KATOH takes this into account, and still likes him more than any other prospect in baseball. Still, its easy to see why Kiley didn’t include Pederson near the top of his list. As great as his statistical profile looks, none of Pederson’s tools received a grade higher than 60, meaning he’s unlikely to get much better than he already is.

Although he’s no longer a prospect, I feel Mookie Betts deserves a mention as well, as his 21.6 WAR was the highest KATOH projection of any player with at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last year. Betts raked at every single minor league stop, but his small stature and lackluster tools have led to questions about his upside. KATOH doesn’t take a player’s size into account (working on that!), but it sees his statistical performance and anticipates great things. If he’d received 60 fewer at bats last year, his name would be gracing the top of KATOH’s list.

Now for some players where KATOH vehemently disagrees with Kiley’s rankings. Here’s a quick look at the biggest snubs from each list — the top hitter and top pitcher. These are the prospects who ranked near the top of one list, but missed the cut on the other. I only considered players who spent the majority 2014 season in full-season ball (Low-A or above) since KATOH projections can get pretty wonky when they’re based on stats from short-season ball.

KATOH’s biggest snubs according to Kiley:

Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox

Kiley ranked Anderson 45th overall on his list, mainly on the strength of his pure athletic ability — His speed, arm, and bat control all grade out as plus. The tools are great, but Kiley notes that the 21-year-old’s plate discipline could still use a some work, and KATOH agrees. High-A is the level where a hitter’s walks really start to mean something, and Anderson’s 2% walk rate is about as bad as it gets. This, coupled with the fact that Anderson wasn’t overly young for his level, lead KATOH to project the toolsy shortstop for a measly 2.2 WAR through age 28, despite his solid .301/.327/.481 batting line. Anderson’s stats lag behind his tools, making him exactly the type of player who’s likely to blow by hi projection; but until he does something about his plate discipline, KATOH’s not going to be on board.

Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros

Kiley ranked Appel 18th overall on his list, which is actually pretty low for a guy who was drafted first overall out of college just 20 months ago. The reason for his conservative ranking is the same reason why KATOH dislikes him: His 2014 stunk . Well, at least part of it did. Appel got off to a terrible start to the year due to a mysterious drop in velocity, and while the problem eventually corrected itself, his 2014 stat line still looks pretty dismal. KATOH doesn’t know about Appel’s yoyo-ing velocity, but looks at his 2014 and sees a 22-year-old with middling strikeout (20%) and walk (6%) rates in High-A and Double-A. Maybe Appel’s 2014 will prove to be nothing more than a weird blip on the radar, but it happened, and KATOH doesn’t like that it happened. That’s why it handed him a dismal 1.7 WAR projection.

Kiley’s biggest snubs according to KATOH:

Domingo Leyba, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Leyba split 2014 between the New York Penn League (A-) and the Midwest League (Low-A) as an 18-year-old, making him very young for his level. Yet despite his youth, Leyba held his own by hitting a more-than-respectable .322/.358/.430 in 70 games. Leyba hit for very little power last year, but did an excellent job of putting the ball in play — Only 11% of his plate appearances ended in a strikeout.

Kiley gave Leyba a FV of just 40+ — essentially labeling him a future backup — thanks to his underwhelming tools and inability to play an adequate shortstop. KATOH knows nothing about the tools Leyba has or doesn’t have. All it knows is that he did nothing but hit last year despite being very young for his level, and forecasts an impressive 10.1 WAR for him through age 28 — good for the 11th best projection, overall.

Clayton Blackburn, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Blackburn spent 2014 as a 21-year-old in Double-A and pitched to a very respectable 3.29 ERA over 18 starts. As solid as that sounds, Blackburn’s peripheral stats suggest he pitched even better than that. His FIP checked in at a rosy 2.54 on the strength of his 85:20 (4.5) strikeout to walk ratio, and one homer allowed over 18 starts. His home run total was probably helped by some HR/FB luck, but to his credit, he did manage to keep the ball on the ground 56% of the time last year. All of this good work resulted in a 6.5 WAR projection from KATOH, placing him 40th overall.

Still, despite the fact that he dominated Double-A hitters year, Kiley gave Blackburn a FV of just 40, on account of his uninspiring stuff. Only one of Blackburn’s pitches — his curveball — projects to be even above average. Blackburn’s stuff suggests that he’ll get eaten alive by big league hitting, but he’s been nothing short of excellent in his ascent to through the minors leagues so far. And until that changes, KATOH will continue to believe, for better or for worse.

Without further ado, here it is: KATOH’s full top 200 list. Note that player’s who received fewer than 200 PA’s or BF in 2014 were not considered.