Not What One Would Expect

Strategic Calculations and CSTO Limits

Part II: The Reverse Brzezinski Unleashed

Broking Peace In Beijing

Concluding Thoughts

The unprecedented upsurge in violence along the Line of Contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh has raised universal concern that a larger conflict might be brewing, with some analysts seeing it as an outgrowth of Turkey's destabilizing anti-Russian policies over the past couple of months.As attractive as it may be to believe such that Azerbaijan is behaving as a total puppet of the West, such an explanation is only a superficial description of what is happening and importantly neglects to factor in Baku's recent foreign policy pivot over the past year. It's not to necessarily suggest that Russia's CSTO ally Armenia is to blame for the latest ceasefire violations, but rather to raise the point thatInstead of beginning the research from a century ago and rehashing the dueling historic interpretations that both sides have over Nagorno-Karabakh, the article at hand begins at the present day and proceeds from the existing on-the-ground state of affairs after the 1994 ceasefire, wherebyin all sectors. There's no attempt to advocate one side or denigrate the other, but rather to objectively understand the situation as it is and forecast its unfolding developments.In keeping with the task at hand, it's essential that the point of analytical departure be an overview of Armenia and Azerbaijan's latest geopolitical moves in the year preceding the latest clashes. Afterwards, it's required that an analysis be given about, which thus helps to put Russia's active diplomatic moves into the appropriate perspective. Following that, Part II of the article raises awareness aboutand how the recent outbreak of violence is likely part and parcel of this calculated plan. Finally, the two-part series concludes with the suggested appeal that Armenia and Azerbaijan replace the stale OSCE Minsk Group conflict resolution format with a fresh analogue via their newly shared dialogue partner status under the SCO.Over the past year or so, Armenia and Azerbaijan's geopolitical trajectories haven't exactly been moving along the course that casual commentators would expect that they would. Before beginning this section, it's necessary to preface it with a disclaimer that the author is not referring to the average Armenian or Azeri citizen in the following analysis, but rather is using their respective countries' names interchangeably with their given governments, so "Armenia" in this instance refers to the Yerevan political establishment while "Azerbaijan" relates to its Baku counterpart. This advisory note is needed in order to proactively prevent the reader from misunderstanding the author's words and analyses, since the topic is full of highly emotionally charged elements and generally evokes a strong reaction among many, especially those of either of the two ethnicities.The general trend is that the prevailing geopolitical stereotypes about Armenia and Azerbaijan are not as accurate as one would immediately think, and that neither country adheres to them to the degree that one would initially expect. It's true thatwhich maintains a presence of 5,000 troops , a handful of jets and helicopters , a forthcoming air defense shield , and possibly soon even Iskander missiles there,despite its formal Eurasian Union membership.This has yet to be clinched, but the resolute intent that Yerevan clearly demonstrated in May 2015. The author was so concerned about this eventuality that he published a very controversial analysis that month explaining the various ploys by which the West has sought to woo Armenia over to its side, including the shedding of crocodile tears for its genocide victims during their centenary remembrance commemoration.As is the established pattern which was most clearly proven by Ukraine,, so it's unsurprising in hindsight that the " Electric Yerevan " destabilization was commencedthe Armenian President was publicly hobnobbing with so many of his Western "partners". That anti-government push was a proto-manifestation of what the author later described in an unrelated work as. The geopolitical end goal in all of this, as the author wrote in his "Electric Yerevan" piece cited above, was to get Armenian nationalists such as Nikol Pashinyan into power so that they can. They thankfully didn't succeed in this, and the sitting Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has repeatedly underscored that Armenia does not want to see a conflict escalation in the disputed territory.Strangely,that the West tried to engineer against Armenia,for Armenia's foreign policy" and "expressed gratitude to the EU for their assistance in carrying out reforms in Armenia." Also, the EU's External Action Service reports that the two sides formallywith one another on 7 December with the aim of reaching a "new agreement (that) will replace the current EU-Armenia Partnership and Cooperation agreement."An EU analyst remarked in March of this year that he obviously doesn't believe that it will be identical to the Association Agreement that the EU had offered to Armenia prior to its Eurasian Union ascension, but that of course doesn't mean that it couldn't share many similarities with its predecessor and create geopolitical complications for Yerevan's economic alliance with Moscow. It must be emphasized at this point that, disturbingly raising the prospect that its schizophrenic policies might one day engender a crisis of loyalty where Yerevan is forced to choose between Moscow and Brussels much as Kiev was artificially made to do so as well (and possibly with similar pro-Western urban terrorist consequences for the "wrong choice").On the other hand, while Armenia was bucking the conventional stereotype by moving closer to the West,. Baku's relations with Washington Tel Aviv (which it supplies 40% of its energy to via the BTC pipeline) are well documented, as is its geostrategic function as(particularly in the context of the Southern Corridor project), so there's no use regurgitating well-known and established facts inside of this analysis. Rather, what's especially interesting to pay attention to is. Even more fascinating is that all of it was so unnecessary and had barely anything to do with Baku's own initiative.What happened was that, which resulted in Azerbaijan boldly announcing in September 2015 that it was cancelling the planned visit of a European Commission delegation and considering whether it "should review [its] ties with the European Union, where anti-Azeri and anti-Islam tendencies are strong."Earlier that year in February 2015, Quartz online magazine even exaggeratedly fear mongered that "Azerbaijan is transforming into a mini-Russia" because of its strengthening domestic security capabilities in dealing with asymmetrical threats.While Azerbaijan's resistance certainly has its pragmatic limits owing to the country's entrenched strategic and energy infrastructural relationship with the West over the past couple of decades, it's telling that it would so publicly rebuke the West in the fashion that it did and. Part of the reason for the West's extreme dislike of the Azerbaijani government has been. Having lost its influence over the country via the post-modern "grassroots-'bottom-up'" approach, it's very plausible that the US and its allies decided to find a way to instigate Nagorno-Karabakh clashesAmidst this recent falling out between Azerbaijan and the West and even in the years preceding it,which would never interfere with Baku's domestic processes or base its bilateral relations with the country on whatever its counterpart chooses to do at home. Other than the unmistakable security influence that Russia has had on Azerbaijan's NGO legislation, the two sides have also increased their military-technical cooperation through a surge of agreements that totaled $4 billion by 2013. By 2015, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that Azerbaijan's total arms spending for the five-year period of 2011-2014 had increased by 249%, with 85% of its supplies coming from Russia.In parallel to that, it also asserted that Russia's weapons exports to Europe for 2011-2015 increased by 264%, "mainly due to deliveries to Azerbaijan". It's plain to see that, but is instead applying a shrewd and calculated military balancing strategy between it and Armenia. While unconfirmed by official sources, the head of the Political Researches Department of the Yerevan-based Caucasian Institute Sergey Minasian claimed in 2009 that Russia was supplying its Gyumri base in Armeniaafter Georgia banned such overflights through its territory after the 2008 war. If this is true, then, which of course includes the paranoid fear that some Azeri observers have expressed about Russia conspiring with Armenia to wage another war in Nagorno-Karabakh.Everything that was written above likely comes as a complete shock to the casual observer of international affairs because it flies in the face of presumed "logic", but this just goes to show that the prevailing geopolitical stereotypes about Armenia and Azerbaijan are inaccurate and do not fully reflect the present state of affairs. The common denominator between the two rival states is their evolving relationship with Russia, which as was just described, appears to be progressively moving in opposite directions. Again, the author does not intend to give the impression that this reflects popular sentiment in either country or its expatriate and diaspora communities, especially Armenia and its affiliated ethnic nationals, since the general attitude inside the country (despite the highly publicized "Electric Yerevan" failed Color Revolution attempt) and for the most part by its compatriots outside of it could safely be described as favorable to Russia., but that only means that the answer to this paradox lies more in the vision (and possible monetary incentives) of the country's leadership than the will of its people. Still, the situation is not critical and has yet to approach the point where the pragmatic and trusted state of bilateral relations is endangered.That being said, to many conventional observers, Russia's close military cooperation with Azerbaijan might seem just as peculiar as Armenia's intimation of a forthcoming pro-Western economic pivot, but that too can be explained by a strategic calculation, albeit one of a much more pragmatic and understandable nature., specifically the most recent 62/243 one from 2008 which "Reaffirms continued respect and support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan within its internationally recognized borders" and "Demands the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of all Armenian forces from all the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan".What's happening isn't that"betraying Armenia" like some overactive nationalist pundits like to allege, but that it's. Key to this understanding is that the conception of territorial integrity is a guiding,, tenet of Russian foreign policy, and the 2008 Russian peace-enforcement operation in Georgia that led to the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the 2014 reunification with Crimea prove that extenuating circumstances can result in a change of long-standing policy on a case-by-case basis. This can be interpreted as meaning that Moscow at this stage (operative qualifier) does not support the independence of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, but to be fair, neither does Yerevan, although the Armenian state just recently repeated its previously stated position that itrecognize the Armenian-populated region as a separate country if the present hostilities with Azerbaijan increase. Therefore,As much as some participants and international observers might think of such a move as being historically just and long overdue,to any unilateral moves that Armenia makes about recognizing the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. To repeat what was earlier emphasized about Russia's political approach to this conflict, this would not amount to a "betrayal" of Armenia but instead would be a pragmatic and sober assessment of the global geostrategic environment and the likely fact that. As it stands, Russia has a mutual defense commitment to Armenia which makes it responsible for protecting its ally from any aggression against it, however, thereby excluding any Armenian forces and passport holders in Nagorno-Karabakh.If Armenia recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state, it would likely initiate a rapidly progressing process whereby the two Armenian-populated entities vote for unification,over what would by then be newly incorporated and Russian-recognized Armenian territory. On the one hand, Moscow wouldn't want to be perceived as "betraying" its centuries-long Armenian ally and thenceforth engendering its unshakable hate for the foreseeable future, but on the other, it might have certain reservations about getting directly involved in the military conflict as a warfighting participant and forever losing the positive New Cold War inroads that it has made with Baku.Russian-Azeri relations, if pragmatically managed along the same constructive trajectory that they've already been proceeding along,. In any case, the Russian Foreign Ministry would prefer not to be placed on the spot and in such a zero-sum position where it is forced to choose between honoring its Armenian ally's unilateral unification with Nagorno-Karabakh and abandoning its potential outpost of transregional strategic influence in Azerbaijan, or pursuing its gambit to acquire grand transregional influence via Azerbaijan at the perceived expense of its long-standing South Caucasus ally and risk losing its ultra-strategic military presence in the country., which is doing everything that it can to neutrally negotiate between the two sides in offsetting this utterly destabilizing scenario and preventing it from being forced to choose a disastrous zero-sum commitment in what will be argued in Part II to likely be an externally third-party/US-constructed military-political dilemma. Furthermore,, which also explains why Azerbaijan has yet to unleash its full military potential against the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh and why Armenia hasn't unilaterally recognized Nagorno-Karabakh or made an effort to politically unite with it. Conclusively, it can be surmised that, which always benefits whenever destabilization strikes Moscow's periphery and its Eurasian adversary is forced into a pressing geopolitical dilemma.The Stratagem:The author published an analytical research paper in June 2014 whereby he expounded upon the geostrategic concept of the " Reverse Brzezinski ", which is basically the return to the US' 1980s Afghan-style strategy of engineering debilitating quagmires for Russia but which can also be applied against other Great Powers such as China. The American perspective is that. The three most likely Reverse Brzezinski battlefields are, and it's no surprise that all three of them have seen a pitched uptick in violence over the past week. Not counting the obvious and discussed-about situation surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic warned last week that, and. These three examples of post-Soviet peripheral destabilizations and their near-simultaneous outbreak cannot be seen as incidental, but instead are part of what the author had initially forecasted almost two years ago about the US' ultimate Reverse Brzezinski scenario against Russia.Out of the three 'probes' that the US had launched in gauging the viability of the next Reverse Brzezinski battlefield, the one in Nagorno-Karabakh quickly became the scene of the largest-scale fighting and the conflict with the greatest potential to rapidly escalate into an all-out war. It's unclear which side fired the first shot that led to the latest spate of ceasefire violations, and ultimately, while this is very important from a normative and legal perspective, it will likely never be known 100% for sure owing to the completely different and contradictory narratives coming from both the Armenian and Azeri camps.(although it doesn't discount it entirely). From the other side,and would likely draw Moscow's sharp and immediate public consternation if it was even suspected in any sense of probability that this was truly the case. With both the Armenian and Azeri leaderships obviously not having anything of objective self-interest to gain in stoking the flames of a new war that could predictably involve Russia, all eyes once more return to the US in pondering the question of " cui bono ".To repeat what was just mentioned above, it will probably never be ascertained without a single shred of reasonable doubt which of the two sides' forces fired the first start that sparked the worst outbreak of violence since the 1994 ceasefire, but it's exceedingly likely that. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has full and total immediate control over their frontline forces, and the edgy state of near-war tension that they've both been exposed to for over the past two decades (and especially recently with the latest September 2015 shelling ) means that a 'jumpy' and/or easily provoked serviceman or two could effortlessly be manipulated into a militant response that generates a disproportionate reaction by the opposing forces. In fact, judging by the long list of ceasefire violations even before this latest incident, it seems highly likely that this has been the case many times before and might even have been tested out and perfected well in advance of what could actually have been a preplanned Reverse Brzezinski geopolitical sabotage attempt by the US. With both sides restraining themselves for the time being and President Putin calling on each of them to step back from the brink,It's not known which direction the latest hostilities can go in, but it's clear that their intensity and scope are unprecedented for any time since the 1994 ceasefire. The OSCE Minsk Group conflict resolution party that was created in the mid-1990s and is co-chaired by Russia, the US, and France has pitifully failed to make any significant progress in improving the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in its more than two decades of existence and has proven itself by the latest events to be absolutely irrelevant in calming the present situation. For that reason,. The author wrote a three-part series almost exactly a year ago about this topic and how, in which Armenia and Azerbaijan are now officially dialogue partners for the outdated OSCE Minsk Group and inject the peace process with the much-needed impetus by China's totally neutral participation. For the specific details of this plan, the reader is strongly encouraged to read the author's articles about " The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The OSCE Minsk Group Is Obsolete ", " SCO Will Be The New Framework For Resolving The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict ", and " How The West Plans To Prevent The SCO From Mediating In Nagorno-Karabakh ", but the following paragraph will succinctly summarize the most relevant aspects of this series as they pertain to the present article.Unlike Russia which various domestic Armenian and Azeri voices falsely accuse of being "biased" one way or another,in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. As a rapidly rising Great Power with the impressive capability of exerting out-of-regional full spectrum influence,. China's only interest isin spanning the globe and integrating as many of its corners as possible, and Beijing is astutely well aware that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could disrupt its vision for the Caucasus and even disastrously evolve into a larger conflagration that destabilizes more than its immediate warfighting participants. For all intents and purposes,, two of the three existing co-chairs of the failed OSCE Minsk Group, and in the interests of Eurasian solidarity and multipolar New Silk Road win-win benefit, it's clear to see how much more preferable it would be for China to replace its Western counterparts in the negotiating process and complement Russia's positive role via the already proven world-changing dynamics of the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership The most recent and unprecedented outbreak of violent hostility over Nagorno-Karabakh has taken many international observers by surprise, but, then the latest events wouldn't have been too unexpected. They occur at a significant geopolitical time when Russia has impressively flexed its muscles in outwardly defying the US' unipolar vision for global hegemony by partaking in the wildly successful albeit physically limited anti-terrorist operation in Syria, andWhile there are many theories swirling around about who is to blame for all of this and what their ultimate goals are, the conventional explanation that Azerbaijan is behaving as a completely controlled puppet of the West has yet to be proven in this instance and is largely exposed as being a superficial stereotypical reaction when the recent geopolitical trajectory of Yerevan and Baku is taken into account. There's no ignoring that Azerbaijan has very close relations with proven troublemakers such as the US, Turkey, and Israel,. That doesn't necessarily mean that it can be completely discounted that Azerbaijan was put up to do this by its unipolar partners or alternatively that Armenia is guilty for everything, but that the situation is infinitely more complicated than the prevailing alternative media narratives largely make it out to be and is likely attributable to the US exploiting the dangerous fog of war that and decades-long tensions that had settled along the Line of Contact in order to provoke a Reverse Brzezinski scenario for its ultimate gain and each parties total expense.Additionally, Russia's position is also a lot more complex than simply providing CSTO assistance to Armenia, since like what was mentioned earlier, this mutual defense guarantee does not extend to the Armenian-populated areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. Moscow still formally maintains that this territory is legally part of Azerbaijan, though with the key qualifier of understanding being this is the position for now and could theoretically change due to developing circumstances much as its previous positions about Georgian and Ukrainian territorial integrity changed in 2008 and 2014 respectively on a case-by-case basis. With this being considered,. The quandary that an Armenian-Azeri War would provoke for Russia is immense and it would certainly throw Moscow into a geostrategic dilemma whereby it's forced by circumstances beyond its control to make what amounts to a zero-sum Catch-22 decision about whether or not to support Armenia's forces in Nagorno-Karabakh.While there has yet to exist to a peace proposal that satisfies both the Armenians and the Azeris, it's unquestionable that the existing OSCE Minsk Group process has unequivocally failed in its stated objective of mitigating tension between the two sides and resolving their heated dispute. This means that a fresh, bold, and new alternative must be undertaken in order to inject the process with a renewed impetus, and the most likely possibility for this to occur is for the two recent SCO Dialogue Partners to request China's mediation in their spiraling dispute. It's not known how effective this would be in practice, but seeing as how the present model has miserably underperformed in reaching any of its founding objectives,Andrew Korybko is the American political commentator currently working for the Sputnik agency.