A new scientific election predictor suggests that the SNP are ahead in the race for the Orkney and Shetland seat in next month’s UK General Election.

According to statistics from Electoral Calculus the SNP have a 56 per cent chance of winning the Northern Isles constituency, compared to the Liberal Democrats’ 41 per cent.

The figures for Orkney and Shetland put the SNP on 37.8 per cent of the vote, with the Lib Dems on 35.5 per cent.

SNP candidate Danus Skene.

Electoral Calculus predicts British General Election results using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography, and apparently was the most accurate pre-poll predictor at the last General Election in May 2010.

However, SNP candidate Danus Skene has given a cautious welcome to indications that the SNP campaign in the Northern Isles is having a positive impact.

He said: “This is only one set of figures, and predictions of a 56 per cent likelihood of an SNP win, against 41 per cent for the Lib Dems need to be treated as just one view from one organisation.

“However, with little over four weeks to go until polling day it appears that the momentum is with the SNP and my teams in Orkney and Shetland will be doing all they can to get the positive message across to voters that having an MP who is part of a strong team of SNP representatives at Westminster can only be good for the islands.”