To believe Miami will win five or less, you would have to expect the Canes to lose all three of these games. Under 5.5 would still be alive if Miami went 1-2, but assuming a win against or Nebraska or Cincinnati, that would leave Miami with a 4-3 record after seven games. With that in mind, the Virginia Tech game becomes the key swing in this part of the schedule. If UM beats FSU, the Under 5.5 crowd might as well rip up their tickets, but if the Canes lose another heartbreaker, how they respond the following week will be critical. Miami played terribly in losses to UVA and Pitt to close last season, letdowns that the doubters will be counting on to repeat this year.

This one is a toss-up between 2-1 and 1-2. If Miami is able to go to Tallahassee and upset the Noles, then a 3-0 stretch is possible, given how much momentum that win would provide. Miami's season went into a tailspin after losing a late lead to FSU in 2014. While FSU has tons of elite talent on the roster, the Noles will be inexperienced this fall. Everett Golson is a likely improvement from Sean Maguire at QB, but it will be interesting to see how quickly he can adjust to Jimbo Fisher's offense. Miami is fortunate to be playing FSU early in the season. By mid-November, Florida State will likely look much better than they appeared early in the year. This game will be a huge opportunity for Brad Kaaya to prove he can lead his team to a road win in a hostile environment. As we discussed previously, Miami was just 1-4 on the road in 2014.

Away at Duke - October 31st

Home vs Virginia - November 7th

Away at North Carolina - November 14th

Home vs Georgia Tech - November 21st

Away at Pittsburgh - November 27th

Once again, the Coastal is the hardest division to predict in college football. A case could be made for six different teams (excluding Virginia) having a legitimate chance to win the division. I love that Miami closes with five straight Coastal games. If Miami comes out of the previous stretch with at least one win, the Canes will likely control their own destiny in the division when they face Duke on Halloween. Of the five games, three are on the road, but Miami is fortunate to be facing the Coastal favorite Georgia Tech at Sun Life Stadium.

Most Likely Outcome



I think 3-2 or 4-1 is the most probable record for Miami in these five Coastal matchups. Keep in mind, that confidence depends on my predictions for the first seven games being accurate. If Miami enters this stretch at 5-2 or even better, the Canes have an excellent chance at finishing strong and contending for a trip to the ACC title game. Duke will have a new QB this season, likely Thomas Sirk, a junior who has just 14 career pass attempts. The Blue Devils also lost their best playmaker in WR Jamison Crowder and this roster doesn't have the depth to easily replace him. Duke has talent on defense, but Miami's never had a problem scoring at Wallace Wade Stadium.



The trip to North Carolina is a tricky one, given how much I like QB Marquise Williams. The Tar Heels should be much improved this season. Pitt will be a tough place to play this year too, with the Panthers returning three dynamic players on offense: RB James Conner, WR Tyler Boyd, and QB Chad Voytik. I know it shouldn't be an issue, but I still have trouble feeling comfortable with Miami playing road games in cold weather. The margin for error in this division is razor thin and this race may be decided by which team manages to stay the healthiest. While I think that the Canes have more talent than these five opponents, none of these games will be easy. I do think this might be the part of the year where you'll notice a huge improvement in Brad Kaaya's performance and leadership. He'll be finishing up his second full season as a starter and I expect him to emerge as a national star this season.



Under 5.5 Wins - Late Season Collapse



The Under 5.5 backers expect Miami to enter this stretch at 3-4 or 4-3. That makes the Duke game extremely important. If Miami beats Duke, they'll have at least some momentum heading into the game at home against UVA. Should Miami lose to Duke, this season could go downhill quickly. The Canes should be favored to beat UVA, but I've been embarassed by Miami's inability to beat Mike London in recent years. In a division as unpredictable as the Coastal, anything can happen. Miami's doubters are counting on the two crossover games against FSU and Clemson to put the Canes behind the eight ball in the Coastal Division race. If the Canes are eliminated from Coastal contention, motivating his team will become very difficult for Al Golden. The final three games are a tough way to finish, with two road games and hosting a very good Georgia Tech team. Until Miami's run defense actually shows significant improvement against elite teams, many will expect the Yellow Jackets to option their way to a win in South Florida. GT's QB Justin Thomas is getting a lot of attention in preseason voting as a potential ACC Player of the Year Candidate and he'll be tough to stop.





Final Conclusion



As you can see given my predictions for each section of the schedule, I think Miami will easily exceed 5.5 wins, with an 8-4 or 9-3 record being the most likely outcomes. There is no doubt that I tend to be more optimistic than most people, especially in the midst of a long offseason, so I'm anxious to hear what other fans think. A big part of why Miami's O/U is so low is Al Golden's position firmly on the hot seat. Some people anticipate a scenario where if Miami starts the season poorly and rumors about job security begin, it might be difficult to save the season under the intense pressure of that situation. I only ask one thing from Miami fans in 2015: I know you're frustrated with how the Canes have done in recent years. I know many people have emotional and strong opinions about the coaching staff. Don't let those feelings prevent you from showing your full support to the players on the field this fall. If the team doesn't win, everything will take care of itself. I hope to see all of you at Sun Life in September. If I'm right about exceeding expectations, this team will be in the mix for a Coastal title.





Go Canes.