CALGARY - Alberta's provincial election Monday - almost certain to be an historic one for the province and for the country - comes down to a pitched battle in the province's biggest city between the conservative Wildrose Party and the more liberal PC Party of Alberta in Calgary.

"There is absolutely no doubt that Calgary will determine this election," said Duane Bratt, chair of the department of policy studies at Calgary's Mount Royal University. "The PCs have to sweep Calgary to stay in power, but the number of safe seats is getting smaller and smaller."

A poll, released exclusively Friday to Sun News Network by Abacus Data, showed a tightening race in the city. A week ago, 55% of Calgary voters were ready to vote Wildrose in this city, long the power base for Alberta's ruling Progressive Conservatives. But after a week in which the moral character of some Wildrose characters came under attack, Wildrose is the favourite of 44% of Calgarians.

That is still a healthy lead over the PCs. Abacus found their support in the city at the end of the week was at 29% up from 25% a week ago.

But Ric McIver, the PC candidate in Calgary-Hays in the city's south end, says since the Abacus poll came out Thursday night, the gap has shrunk, he says, to within five percentage points.

"Calgary is a city that will look at the facts and make a decision based on what they think is in their own best interests," said McIver, a long-time city councillor who finished second to Naheed Nenshi in last year's mayoralty race. "They're coming our way."

Wildrose is almost certain to sweep the roughly 40 seats up for grabs outside Calgary and Edmonton, which means it only needs five seats to secure a majority of seats in the 87-seat legislature and end the PCs 41-year reign.

While Wildrose hopes to steal a handful of seats in suburban Edmonton, the party believes the gains that will make their Leader Danielle Smith the premiere will come in Calgary.

For the incumbent premier, Progressive Conservative leader Alison Redford, the race is personal.

In her riding of Calgary-Elbow in the city's centre, she is believed to be leading by single digits, a dangerously low margin for a sitting premier.

Redford and the PCs are blitzing the city this weekend to close the gap.

Between Saturday and Sunday, Redford had 13 campaign events scheduled.

The Wildrose leader's tour spent Saturday in Edmonton and has six events scheduled in Calgary and High River on Sunday.