Penn State at Minnesota

Betting Line: Minnesota +6.5

Over/Under: 47.5

Penn State had last week off, but their last outing was a 28-7 win over Michigan State to bring home the Land Grant Trophy after losing to Michigan State in 2017 and 2018. The Nittany Lions has yet another strong defensive performance as they forced four turnovers and allowed just 3.5 yards per play. While Michigan State has had their fair share of offensive issues, this defensive domination has been a common theme for Penn State this season, especially against the run. In this game, I think it will be crucial for the Nittany Lions to slow down Minnesota’s ground game. They definitely have the man power to do it as their defensive line is loaded with talent. Yetur Gross-Matos leads the team in tackles for loss but is half a sack behind Shaka Toney for the team lead. While Toney and Gross-Matos make up an elite duo at defensive end, Robert Windsor also holds down the middle quite well at defensive tackle. Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan is a decent quarterback, but I do not think he can beat Penn State on his own. Offensively, the key for the Nittany Lions will be to have good pass protection and a reliable run game. Penn State’s offensive line is not bad but it is far from impenetrable. Tackles Will Fries and Rasheed Walker will need to be especially stout against Minnesota defensive end Carter Coughlin. If Sean Clifford is protected and has time to throw, I trust KJ Hamler and Pat Freiermuth’s ability to get open. The Nittany Lions officially named true freshman Noah Cain as their number one back going into this game. Cain leads the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns but he has not been given the amount of carries one would expect from a lead back. It looks as though it was because he was nursing a leg injury, but he apparently will be getting a full workload this week. If Cain can be the playmaker he was against Iowa and Purdue, Penn State’s offense will be hard to stop.

Minnesota also had last week off but had a strong performance in their last game. The Golden Gophers rolled Maryland for a 52-10 win to improve to 8-0 on the season. Something Minnesota has done this season that has impressed me is they have won games behind both their run game and passing attack. What they have been a bit more reliant upon recently is their ground game. Rodney Smith has taken over the lead back role and has had a very good season so far with 889 rushing yards on six yards per carry. Smith also is going on five straight games with at least 100 rushing yards. In addition to Smith, Shannon Brooks and Mohamed Ibrahim have been very good secondary backs. In this game, the Golden Gophers will be facing their toughest test on the ground as Penn State has one of the best run defenses in nation. I think finding success on the ground is probably the most important task for Minnesota to accomplish if they want to still be undefeated after this game. This means that the running backs and also the offensive line need to have a good game. Defensively, Minnesota needs to have success rushing the passer. Penn State has a lot of talent at receiver and also has guys that can get open quickly. The Golden Gophers can not let Sean Clifford get comfortable in the pocket. Minnesota also needs to be solid in pass coverage. Cornerbacks Coney Durr and Chris Williamson can not be overmatched.

Prediction:

Minnesota keeps it close but Penn State pulls through with a 24-20 win.

Kansas State at Texas

Betting Line: Texas -7

Over/Under: 57.5

Kansas State has had a pretty good last couple of weeks. First, they took down a then undefeated Oklahoma, and then they had a dominant win over in-State rival Kansas in the Sunflower Showdown. The Wildcats have already beat my projected win total I had for them in year one under Chris Klieman. Where the Wildcats have mostly found success this season is on the defensive side of the ball. If Kansas State can get a pass rush, they will really throw Texas’s offense out of whack. When Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger gets rushed, his decision making ability drops, so getting a good pass rush will be huge for the Wildcats. Kansas State also will likely need to use a quarterback spy on Ehlinger, especially on obvious passing downs. Whoever plays that role will need to do it well. Another big task for Kansas State’s defense will be to be sound in pass coverage and not get outmuscled by Texas’s bigger receivers. Walter Neil and Kevion McGee will need to hold their ground in coverage. On offense, Kansas State needs to try and exploit Texas’s weak secondary. Texas does fine against the run, but their secondary has been burnt time and time again this season. Skylar Thompson might not be a great passer, but his number have improved from last season. If Dalton Schoen and Malik Knowles can get open, Kansas State will be pretty well set.

Texas had last week off, which is definitely a good thing for them. The Longhorns have been on a bit of a skid as their last three games are a 27-20 loss to Oklahoma, a 50-48 win over Kansas on a last second field goal, and a 37-27 loss to TCU. The Longhorns hopefully used this week off to regroup but it also helped them in that they now have some key players back that have been injured. The most important player returning is definitely safety Caden Sterns. Sterns is Texas’s best defensive player and is definitely needed for a pass defense that has struggled this season. BJ Foster returns at safety after missing last week, and DeMarvion Overshown will return at cornerback. With those three back, the pass defense should improve. Kansas State has not been known for having a strong passing attack this season, but neither was TCU and they destroyed Texas through the air. If The Longhorns can improve their pass coverage, they will be fine defensively. On offense, the key to the game will be pass protection. Texas’s offensive line has dropped off a bit this season. This drop off has made things much tougher for Sam Ehlinger at quarterback as he now has to make decisions faster and often can not wait for a play to develop. If Ehlinger is protected well, then things should run smoothly on offense for the Longhorns. The run game should be improved some as running back Jordan Whittington will see game action for the first time in his career. Whittington is a true freshman who has a five star recruit coming out of high school, but has missed the entire season due to a hernia. Whittington had a very good spring and fall camp and has many coaches excited. Hopefully his addition will help bolster up the run game and give them a big play threat they have been missing.

Prediction:

While I have absolutely no doubt that Texas will somehow not cover the spread, I think they do come out with a 30-27 win.

Wake Forest at Virginia Tech

Betting Line: Virginia Tech +2

Over/Under: 61.5

Wake Forest improved to 7-1 on the season with a 44-10 win over North Carolina State last week. It is no secret that the main reason for Wake Forest’s success this season has been the combination of quarterback Jamie Newman and receiver Sage Surratt. Newman has thrown for 2,059 yards and 20 touchdowns this season while completing 67% of his passes and adding another 305 yards on the ground. Surratt has been his main target this season and leads all power five players in receiving yards with 948. Surratt, who was originally touted as a basketball prospect out of high school, is not too big but plays very physically and is a receiver to watch if you like seeing cornerbacks get stiff armed. Scotty Washington and former quarterback Kendall Hinton are also nice targets at receiver. Wake Forest needs to remain effect through the air, but running back Cade Carney can not come out flat, as it could let Virginia Tech sell out against the pass. Defensively, the Demon Deacons will be going against a second string quarterback who is also nursing a knee injury. This means the goal for their defense will be to creat constant pressure in both rushing the passer and defending the run. Defensive ends Carlos Basham and JaCorey Johns have made for a strong duo at the position. If those two can rush the passer effectively, it will make Virginia Tech rely almost solely on the run game, which they can then sell out to stop.

Virginia Tech did not come out with a win but I was impressed by their performance against Notre Dame. The Hokies held Notre Dame to less than three yards per rush, and forced three turnovers. This week, Virginia Tech will be playing against a team that relies more on their passing attack. The two ways I think the Hokies can help neutralize Wake Forest’s strength through the air will be to make sure to cover Sage Surratt, and use a quarterback spy on Jamie Newman. Caleb Farley will need to not get burned by Surratt, especially in the first half as fellow cornerback Jermaine Waller will have to miss the first half because of a targeting suspension. When Waller is back in the second half, things will be a. It easier. On offense, the Hokies will likely see Hendon Hooker get the nod at quarterback. Hooker missed last game with a leg injury, but should be back for this game. Quincy Patterson could get the start if Hooker is not healthy. Regardless, the run game will need to take off as I am sure the Hokies wasn’t as little pressure on either an injured or inexperienced quarterback as possible. This also means that pass protection will be key. Deshawn McClease can really help out the Hokies on offense if he can get going on the ground.

Prediction:

Wake Forest improves to 8-1 with a 34-28 win. I hope things will be a bit more high scoring than it was the last time these teams met (where this legendary photo was also taken).

LSU at Alabama

Betting Line: Alabama -6

Over/Under: 62.5

LSU had last week off, and their last outing was the closest game that have played all season. The Tigers briefly trailed Auburn in the second half before ultimately surviving with a 23-20 win. LSU’s offense hasn’t their lowest point total all season and looked surprisingly human for a lot of the game. What this did show LSU fans though is that they can win a game behind the ground game, something that was not fully proven yet since nobody had really slowed down their passing attack. For this game, I think LSU needs to be able to keep the offense balanced by getting some yardage on the ground. With this, some pressure can be taken off Joe Burrow and the passing game. Burrow also needs to be accurate with his passes, but still be willing to challenge Alabama’s defense. An aggressive play style like this will keep Alabama on their toes at all times. When you look at the teams who have beaten Alabama in the Nick Saban era, almost all of them have had quarterbacks who were not afraid to take downfield shots or throw it into the teeth of a defense. I think Burrow fits that mold. Defensively, the Tigers need to be sound in coverage across the board. Alabama has four receivers on their roster who could conceivably be first round picks in the future so a lot will be asked of all cornerbacks. Kristian Fulton and freshman phenom Derek Stingley Jr. will need to force Tua Tagovailoa to throw into tight windows and not let Alabama’s receivers ever get comfortable. Another focus should be to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa will play in this game, but is likely not 100% as he is recovering from an ankle injury. This means his mobility will be limited and it will be tougher for him to handle having the pocket collapse. Outside linebackers K’Lavon Chaisson and Andre Anthony will need to hold their own against an Alabama offensive line loaded with NFL talent.

Alabama’s bye week last week was much needed as it gave quarterback Tua Tagovailoa the necessary time to heal from an ankle injury. While he is not fully healthy, Tagovailoa will play this Saturday. This injury means he will need to be protected well and given time to throw by his offensive line. Offensive tackles Jedrick Willis and Alex Leatherwood are going to be first round draft picks in the future and they both need to play like it as well as the interior line. I think establishing the ground game early with Najee Harris will be important as well because it will take some of the pressure off of an injured Tagovailoa. Harris is a very power runner and if he can fight through the line and get the hard hard, it will help out Alabama tremendously. I still expect Tagovailoa to find success in this game, but he will need more time to throw than he typically does. On defense, the Crimson Tide need to get a good pass rush on Joe Burrow. I think Burrow is a very good quarterback, but I think he will not do nearly as well this game if he is getting rushed consistently and has to make quick decisions. Linebackers Terrell Lewis and Anfernee Jennings seem like the most likely candidates to do so. Alabama also needs to force Burrow to throw into tight windows. Burrow will try to beat Alabama deep, and if coverage is not tight, he could easily succeed. Trevon Diggs and Patrick Surtain are good enough cornerbacks not to get beat deep, but they need to not give up any breathing room.

Prediction:

Alabama wins a back and forth game 28-24.

Iowa at Wisconsin

Betting Line: Wisconsin -9

Over/Under: 38

Iowa’s most recent game was their 20-0 victory over Northwestern two weeks ago. The Hawkeyes have some clear deficiencies as a team, but they 6-2 on the season. Unfortunately for them, their issues are on offense and they will be going against a very good Wisconsin defense. I think for this game, Iowa most importantly needs to win the battle in the trenches. This matchup between Iowa and Wisconsin has often times looked less like a football game and more like a sumo wrestling match with some football around it. If Iowa wants success on offense, they will need to make it look like a sumo wrestling match and make things ugly. This all starts withe their offensive line holding up their end of the bargain, something they have stopped doing in recent weeks against better teams. This also means Iowa’s running back need to exhibit solid field vision and keep their legs driving at all times to fight through tackles. Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young are not going to beat defenses with lightning quick speed, but instead by getting a few yards and a cloud of dust at a time. If Iowa can do this and control the clock, their offense can help them find success. Defensively, the Hawkeyes need to stop Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has had a rough couple weeks but he is still a top quality running back and not an easy guy to slow down. Slowing down Taylor will mean shedding blocks quickly at defensive and having the linebackers make sure he does not break through the second level. If Iowa can make it to where Wisconsin quarterback Jack Coan has to beat them, they will have success defensively.

Wisconsin had last week off and I am sure it was beneficial as their performances the last couple of games have been less than stellar. Three weeks ago, the Badgers were upset by Illinois, and then were blown out by Ohio State in their last outing. In order to get back on track, I think running back Jonathan Taylor needs to get back to his old form. Taylor had a crucial fumble against Illinois that led to the loss, and also was held to just 52 rushing yards on 20 carries against Ohio State. Taylor needs to take more of the workload this week, and the offensive line needs to do better at settling him up for success. Another key part of this offense will be quarterback Jack Coan being good enough to capitalize when Wisconsin has Iowa’s defense playing the run too much. If he can get some big passing plays, it will keep Iowa’s defense from expending all their energy on stopping Taylor. Receiver Quintez Cephus will have to take on some of this task as well and find ways to get open. Defensively, the Badgers need to get a pass rush on Iowa’s Nate Stanley. Stanley is a solid quarterback, but can not handle getting pressured consistently. If they can force him out of his comfort zone, the Badgers will be in a good spot. Linebacker Zack Baun is a very good pass rusher and big play generator and I think if he can do that again, it will make things much harder for an already not super talented offense.

Prediction:

Wisconsin wins an ugly game 17-14.

Iowa State at Oklahoma

Betting Line: Oklahoma -14.5

Over/Under: 69

Iowa State had a rough go of it in their last outing. The Cyclones fell 34-27 against Oklahoma State and struggled to stop Oklahoma State’s star studded offense. Unfortunately for the Cyclones, Oklahoma has some offensive talent of their own. Slowing down Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts will be the most important part of the game for the defense. Greg Eisworth will probably be used as a spy on Hurts and he will need to make sure he does not have success scrambling and stays in the pocket. Iowa State also needs to have an answer for Oklahoma’s star receiver CeeDee Lamb. Anthony Johnson and Datrone Young will have their work cut out for them at cornerback today, and they can not get burned. On offense, I think Iowa State needs to try and exploit Oklahoma’s weakness in terms of run defense. Running back Breece Hall had a breakout game against Texas Tech a few weeks ago and I think Iowa State needs to try and get him some carries early and try to put Oklahoma’s defense against the ropes. Brock Purdy is a very good playmaker at quarterback and will need to continue being one in this game. Purdy’s ability to generate big plays out of nowhere will need to be on display. I think a key target in this game will be tight end Charlie Kolar. Oklahoma’s secondary is very fast but small, and any bigger pass catcher will be a tough test for them.

Oklahoma’s last outing was not a particularly good one. The Sooners lost at Kansas State 48-41 in a game that was not even that close for most of the first half. The Sooners were unable to prevent Kansas State from slowly marching down the field and dominating time of possession in their loss. Oklahoma will need to be better against the run this game. Linebacker Kenneth Murray, defensive tackle Neville Gallimore, and defensive end Ronnie Perkins will all need to get off of their blocks quicker and be able to make some big stops when they are needed. If Oklahoma could also generate the same level of pass rush they had against Texas, it would really put a lot of pressure on Iowa State’s Brock Purdy. On offense, the Sooners need a good game from their offensive line. If Jalen Hurts has time to throw, and the holes can develop Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon, Oklahoma’s offense should be set up well. Oklahoma also needs to give the ball to their running backs more this game and not make Hurts do everything by himself. Head coach and play caller Lincoln Riley needs to let Brooks and Sermon get their fair share of touches and keep Iowa State’s defense on their toes.

Prediction:

I think Oklahoma will win 38-30, but Iowa State will stay undefeated against the spread against Oklahoma in the Matt Campbell era.

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