An estimated 9.2 million people or 57.5% of enrolled Australians have already voted in the marriage law postal survey, according to an estimate by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The ABS released the estimate on Tuesday afternoon, confirming that as of Friday a majority have voted in the postal survey asking if the law should be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry.

The estimate is indicative only and is based on the weight and number of envelopes the ABS has received rather than a full count of processed forms.

Acting special minister of state, Mathias Cormann, welcomed the result saying it showed people were embracing the chance to have their say on marriage:

Australians embracing opportunity to have their say on marriage. 9.2m/57.5% responses received (29/9). 5 wks to go. https://t.co/B4vV2CmTG7 — Mathias Cormann (@MathiasCormann) October 3, 2017

In a statement Cormann said the 57.5% turnout five weeks out from the deadline for survey forms to be returned was “very credible”.

“I am very confident that the ultimate outcome of the survey will have great authority,” he said, adding that authority “will be acted on by the Australian parliament”.

At a press conference in Melbourne Equality Campaign co-chair, Anna Brown, said the result was “incredibly promising” and suggested most Australians “simply want to get this done”.

“It’s incredibly important that people take the time to complete their ballots as soon as possible … there are still millions of votes out there that need to be returned,” she said.

The Equality Campaign executive director, Tiernan Brady, said there was “no room for complacency”.

“The rest of this campaign we will not give up any single day, making sure that everybody out there knows how important this is – this is a vote about the lives and dignity of real people,” he said.

Two polls released on Monday suggested that more than three-quarters of enrolled voters had responded to the survey, although others put the figure closer to 50%. The ABS estimate is believed to be lower due to a lag of two to six days for posted votes to be received but it still indicates a high turnout.



Applications for replacement survey forms close on 20 October. The ABS recommends people mail their ballot back by 27 October and will count ballots received before 7 November and declare the result on 15 November.

The ABS deputy statistician and head of the survey taskforce, Jonathan Palmer, said: “We hope that this update will serve as a reminder to those who have not submitted their form to do so promptly if they wish to have their say.

“If you haven’t received your form, or your form is lost or damaged, please contact us via our website and we will send you a new one.”

On Monday a Reachtel poll found 64.3% of respondents had sent back their ballot and voted yes compared with 15.5% who had voted no. A separate Reachtel poll found 60% of people had already voted with the yes campaign leading 61% to 39%.

The Equality Campaign released a poll by Newgate Research showing 77% of Australians had voted including 69% of enrolled 18 to 24-year-olds.

The Equality Campaign’s Alex Greenwich said a further 17% of people in that age group said they had filled out their forms but were yet to post them. “You have not voted until you have posted your yes,” he said.

The latest Guardian Essential poll on 26 September found supporters of marriage equality outnumber opponents 58% to 33%.

The veteran pollster John Stirton said that polls were “inconsistent on the exact numbers but underlying that they are very consistent. The yes campaign has a massive lead and yes voters are more likely to vote”.

“It’s getting very unlikely the no campaign could win from here … Even if the no campaign came up with a killer argument, it’s too late for an awful lot of people.”

In a statement no campaign group Marriage Alliance said the result meant “nearly one in two are yet to cast their vote”. “We will keep working to ensure everyone understands the far-reaching consequences of redefining marriage,” it said.



On Monday Bill Shorten addressed a report that the Tasmanian Labor senator Helen Polley, who opposes marriage equality, was told to pretend she had voted yes. At a doorstop in Melbourne, Shorten said that Polley is “very happy with what the Labor party is doing”.

“And to restate our policy for the record, unlike the Liberal party, we have a conscience vote,” he said.

Shorten attacked the Liberal party for spending up to $122m on the postal survey, saying it had led to “divisive debate”.

“I just hope that the Liberal party, after this postal survey is completed, that they actually stand up, allow a full conscience vote and let’s get on with it.”

Shorten said Australians support marriage equality and “just want the matter finished”.