The Debate

Economic growth is supposed to deliver rising prosperity. Higher incomes should mean better choices, richer lives, an improved quality of life for us all. That at least is the conventional wisdom. So the possibility that there may be limits to growth is clearly one that must be taken seriously.

In 1972 the Club of Rome published its landmark report, The Limits to Growth, which challenged this conventional wisdom. The report examined exponential trends in resource use and pollution since the Industrial Revolution, and in particular since 1950 – the start of what has been called ‘the great acceleration’ in development and human impacts on the Earth.

The Club of Rome’s model of industrial economies and their resource use indicated that ‘business-as-usual’ would lead inexorably to severe ecological, social and economic pressures, and eventually to the collapse of industrial systems.

Limits to Growth was fiercely contested from the moment it first appeared. Some regarded it as unduly alarmist. Others saw it as a wake-up call for the way we organise our economies. The findings of its underlying model were debated extensively – often without a full understanding of what the book actually said. For instance, the authors never at any point indicated that the economy would collapse before the end of the 20th Century. Recent reviews of the model suggest that the Limits to Growth analysis is essentially robust.

Emerging evidence also suggests that economic growth does not reliably deliver greater wellbeing or improve real standards of living. Deepening inequalities, competition for scarce goods, and the rise of status-driven consumerism generate social limits to growth as well as environmental ones.

How should governments, business, civil society and citizens respond to these challenges? The pursuit of economic growth is a fundamental goal of policymaking, a dominant theme in national election campaigns, and a priority for many businesses. It is widely assumed that growth means progress and that prosperity depends on growth. But what if these assumptions are false?