Mountain of data gauging Detroit's progress is open to interpretation. Here's what to believe.

John Gallagher | Detroit Free Press

Those of us who interpret Detroit's story for readers often cite data to back up our assertions. And that leaves us open to charges that we're either too upbeat or too downbeat in the facts and figures we rely on to build a case.

That's why I found the Detroit Regional Chamber's annual State of the Region report released last week so fascinating. Packed with facts and figures, the report offers abundant data points for partisans to make almost any case.

Indeed, the 11-county southeast Michigan region is either doing great or doing poorly depending on which facts one chooses to grab. And that illustrates the danger of cherry-picking data to make a case, instead of thoughtfully weighing the stats as fairly and objectively as possible.

We're winning, we're losing

To cite just one example: Population in the region grew 0.6% between 2010 and 2018. That's a modest but welcome increase. But on the flip side, seven of the 11 counties in the region lost residents, including Wayne County. Only Oakland, Washtenaw, Macomb and Livingston gained new people.

So is population a positive or negative indicator for this region? You decide.

Or look at gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services produced in Michigan. As the Chamber report makes clear, Michigan's economy continues to grow, hitting $468 billion in 2018, ranking 13th largest among the 50 state economies. That's good!

But don't forget that Michigan used to rank ninth, back before the Great Recession dug us such a deep hole. And Michigan's growth rate lagged the national average last year and that of states like Massachusetts, Georgia and Texas, which are growing even faster than us.

So is GDP a strength or a weakness for Michigan? Both, it seems.

More examples

We could go on:

Unemployment in southeast Michigan dropped from a dismal 16.7% in July 2009 during the Great Recession to a much-improved 5.3% by July 2019. That's great! But the national jobless rate stood at 4% in July, so we’re still lagging the nation as a whole.

Private sector job growth over five years from 2014 through 2018 was up 7.7% in the region, a positive trend. And metro Detroit added private sector jobs at a faster clip than peer metros like Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh — all to the good. But metro Detroit’s record in private sector jobs growth fell a little below the national average of 8.2% and below that in powerhouse cities like Seattle (12.9%), Dallas (12.8%) and Atlanta (12.3%). Not so good.

And the city of Detroit's poverty rate improved from 39% to 33% in recent years, a welcome sign. But the city's poverty rate still ranks among the worst in the nation, crying out for more action.

And so it goes. For every positive statistic the optimists can cite, the pessimists can volley back a more downbeat number.

The full State of the Region report, by the way, can be found at detroitchamber.com.

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The bottom line ...

Do we just throw up our hands and ignore the data? Not at all. It's just that interpreting metro Detroit's position through economic statistics requires a sophisticated understanding and balancing of a full basket of data to reach a conclusion.

And that conclusion is actually fairly clear, once we finish our deep dive into the numbers. Metropolitan Detroit suffered dreadfully during the Great Recession. It has recovered nicely since then. But the long-term reinvention of our economy still has a long way to go.

We cannot forget that a generation of black family wealth in the city of Detroit was wiped out by the foreclosure crisis and subprime mortgage debacle. The auto industry is doing well but continues to walk a tightrope of intense competition. Thousands of important jobs here go unfilled for too few candidates.

So any honest assessment of metro Detroit's economy must conclude that, yes, we're making progress across a range of activities. But no one should rest complacent. The work of reinvention here remains unfinished, indeed has just begun.

Contact John Gallagher at 313-222-5173 or gallagher@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @jgallagherfreep. Read more on business and sign up for our business newsletter.