HOWARD COUNTY, MD — Really, you're going to base when it's time to bust out the flip-flops, shorts and T-shirts on whether a fairly spoiled rodent sees or doesn't see his shadow? Well, probably not, but Groundhog Day — Sunday this year — is one of those days we start thinking about spring in earnest around Howard County.

As the legend goes, if the prognosticating groundhog Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, winter will stick around for six more weeks; if not, spring is just around the corner. Based on the extended forecast for Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, where the groundhog lives, baseball, picnics in the park and blooming crocus can't be far away.

The National Weather Service forecasts mostly sunny skies and highs near 50 in Howard County. Punxsutawney Phil, the famous handle given to various groundhogs that are roused at sunrise for the annual ritual on Gobbler's Knob in the Pennsylvania wilds, isn't that accurate a barometer for the end of the winter — surprising, considering the ritual has been going on for more than 120 years.



And keep this in mind: Though always popular, Phil isn't always right — though if you ask Phil's entourage, the Inner Circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, the groundhog will be right somewhere in the world. Last year, he said spring would be early. It wasn't. Phil's got about 50/50 odds, actually. Since 1988, he's gotten it right 15 times and wrong 17 times.

Here are five things to know about Groundhog Day:

1. Before there was a Groundhog Day, there was Candlemas, an early Christian holiday in which candles were blessed and distributed by local clergy. The celebrants eventually declared that clear skies on Candlemas meant winter would persist. Germans selected an animal — the hedgehog — to predict the end of winter, and brought the idea to America. Groundhogs, which are also known as woodchucks, were plentiful in Pennsylvania, where many Germans settled, so the tradition was Americanized.

2. Punxsutawney Phil has his own "inner circle" — the guys who are always pictured wearing top hats as he emerges. They're a group of local dignitaries charged with planning the festivities and ensuring they come off without a hitch every year, but also with the feeding and care of Phil. 3. Punxsutawney Phil is pretty spoiled. He doesn't have to burrow into the dirt to survive winter as less-famous groundhogs do. He lives in a warm terrarium built into the Punxsutawney library, and visitors can stop and gawk at him anytime they want.