Do you ever have one of those games? The ones where it seems like you’re outplaying your opponent but failures in critical moments has plagued you. Any person who has had a 0 diff pat in a losing effort probably knows what I’m talking about. Well, either way, I’m determined to delve into the nitty-gritty of the playoff games to see who really was playing the best. Why the playoffs? For starters, there weren’t any coaching changes in the playoffs so this is more representative of the coaches that played in the games. Not to mention that every game was played to completion. But it’s primarily because it’s a sample size I’m comfortable analyzing in my free time. I’ll be looking at several things:

What the score and yards were (as well as the difference in these stats between the teams)

On average, which coach was playing the better numbers throughout the game

What was the total discrepancy between numbers called all game

And if none of this makes sense then that’s okay, it will all be described in the following paragraphs. We’ll start in chronological order of rounds, and move from the top left of the bracket and work our way down.

Idaho State @ Brown | 31-7 ISU

Yard difference: +138 ISU

Point difference: +24 ISU

Average diff (Brown on offense): 400.0 (+25 away from 375)

I’ll explain this and the next stat briefly: The average diff is calculated by taking the difference of every play of the game (but flipped when the home team is on defense) and then finding the average of all those values.

Cumulative difference gap: +2372 (In favor of ISU, 95 plays)

This stat is found by doing the same thing as the stat above but instead of summing then dividing by the total number of plays (as you would to find the average) you subtract each diff by 375 and sum them.

ISU dominated Brown in almost every way and the difference shows. A 400 diff just narrowly nets you a 4 yard gain with an Option vs. the 4-3; that must have been pure hell to endure.

Delaware State @ Montana State | 24-7 MSU

Yard difference: +62 MSU

Point difference: +17 MSU

Average diff (MSU on offense): 366.3 (-8.7 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -678 (MSU favor, 78 plays)

MSU definitely took advantage of the Option offense by draining the clock. The small yardage amounts in tandem with the small cumulative diff gap (despite a large MoV) tells that story for sure.

Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington | 35-21 UNC

Yard difference: +49 NorCo

Point difference: +14 NorCo

Average diff (EWU on offense): 395.0 (+20 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: +2434 (NorCo favor, 122 plays)

Despite the stats looking very neck and neck, NorCo undoubtedly outplayed EWU. That’s a big gap for a 14 point victory, especially with the ToP being very similar.

Presbyterian @ Butler | 45-27 Butler

Yard difference: +177 Butler

Point difference: +18 Butler

Average diff (Butler on offense): 337.3 (-37.7 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -4937 (Butler favor, 131 plays)

Butler blew the doors off Presbyterian even worse than ISU did to Brown. Defense may have been a struggle on both sides but this is the biggest diff gap in the playoffs so I’m sure Butler wasn’t sweating it.

Hampton at Eastern Kentucky | 43-14 EKU

Yard difference: +190 EKU

Point difference: +29 EKU

Average diff (E2KU on offense): 343.8 (-31.3 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -4091 (EKU favor, 131 plays)

Many believed that Hampton would bring it back in the second half but the hole they dug themselves was immense. Although the numbers aren’t as gaudy as Butler’s, the MoV is larger; it hints that EKU made the most of their opportunities.

Stony Brook @ Yale | 58-43 Yale

Yard difference: +99 SBU

Point difference: +15 Yale

Average diff (Yale on offense): 362.4 (-12.6 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -1758 (Yale favor, 140 plays)

Stony Brook won the yards game but took home an L, that must be so frustrating. Despite a 15 point deficit, the Seawolves made it closer than any almost any other team.

Jacksonville State @ Bethune-Cookman | 35-28 BCU

Yard difference: +27 BCU

Point difference: +7 BCU

Average diff (BCU on offense): 364.0 (-11.0 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -1125 (BCU favor, 102 plays)

Two of the best ASun teams going head-to-head was certain to be a banger and we got what we deserved. The back and forth game came down to the wire and both teams got away with big plays but the diff gap empirically proves BCU got the last laugh.

Chattanooga @ Incarnate Word | 28-25 UIW

Yard difference: +31 UIW

Point difference: +3 UIW

Average diff (Chatty on offense): 396.0 (+21.0 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: 2356 (UIW favor, 112 plays)

All the basic metrics make this look like a close game but UIW really did deserve the win with the way they played. Chattanooga tried to make up for their poor play early (21 points in the 1st Q, +37 diff away from 375 in the first half) but it was not enough.

Round 2

Idaho State @ Montana | 49-14 UM

Yard difference: +183 UM

Point difference: +35 UM

Average diff (UM on offense): 335.0 (-40.0 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -4320 (UM favor, 108 plays)

The beat down of the Bengals may not have been long at 108 plays, but it was brutal by every metric. There’s not much else to say, I mean 8 giveaways speaks for itself, I’m so sorry Tenny.

Montana State @ Dayton | 28-17 Dayton

Yard difference: +29 Dayton

Point difference: +11 Dayton

Average diff (Dayton on offense): 367.6 (-7.4 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -790 (Dayton favor, 107 plays)

Naturally, Montana State is in 2 of the closest games in the playoffs, going 1-1 in them. Dayton made great use of their opportunities to turn a slight advantage into a 2 possession game.

Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State | 42-22 Sac

Yard difference: +9 NorCo

Point difference: +20 Sac

Average diff (Sac on offense): 368.0 (-7.0 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -620 (Sac favor, 89 plays)

What an enigma of a game, because despite the MoV being vast, the game was super close on diff and in yards. 90 plays is really quick for a game so it means that NorCo didn’t capitalize on their opportunities and the 4 fumbles all but confirms that.

Butler @ San Diego | 45-42 Butler

Yard difference: +140 Butler

Point difference: +3 Butler

Average diff (SD on offense): 394.0 (+19.0 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: 2750 (Butler favor, 145 plays)

Despite a game that came down to a botched field goal, Butler actually had the game on lockdown it seems. 2750 isn’t massive given 145 plays went down, but it’s sizeable enough that I can say that Butler deserved the win.

Eastern Kentucky @ Cal Poly | 35-26 CP

Yard difference: +113 EKU

Point difference: +9 CP

Average diff (CP on offense): 354.9 (-20.1 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -2572 (CP favor, 128 plays)

So despite EKU dominating the yard game and having a positive TO differential, it still wasn’t enough to take down the Option offense of the Mustangs who cruised to a 2 score lead. I may study this game further to break down how CP was able to win so comfortably.

Yale @ Northern Iowa | 42-28 Yale

Yard difference: +42 Yale

Point difference: +14 Yale

Average diff (UNI on offense): 376.3 (+1.3 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: 165 (Yale favor, 131 plays)

This game was absolutely the closest of the playoffs! Yale narrowly took the win in the diff, yards, and ToP battle but being able to turn that into a pair of touchdowns lead is quite impressive.

Bethune-Cookman @ Princeton | 43-35 (3OT) Princeton

Yard difference: +18 Princeton

Point difference: +8 Princeton

Average diff (Princeton on offense): 359.8 (-15.2 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -2087 (Princeton favor, 137 plays)

Princeton accumulated nearly -1200 of diff gap in the third overtime alone. Before that point the game was very close and certainly the meeting of the minds we deserved!

Incarnate Word @ Mississippi Valley State | 49-42 UIW

Yard difference: +14 UIW

Point difference: +7 UIW

Average diff (MVSU on offense): 380.2 (+5.2 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: +806 (UIW favor, 155 plays)

Very close game and the data backs that up. The yards nearly line up it just seems that UIW had the ball bounce the right way for them throughout the game.

Quarterfinals

Dayton @ Montana | 45-21 Dayton

Yard difference: +46 Dayton

Point difference: +24 Dayton

Average diff (UM on offense): 408.5 (+33.5 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: +3847 (Dayton favor, 115 plays)

Dayton thoroughly defeated UM despite the counting stats being very similar. Averaging 408 with a Spread on a 4-3 is 2 yards passing, imagine averaging that on every play without fail.

Butler @ Sacramento State | 45-13 Sac

Yard difference: +155 Sac

Point difference: +32 Sac

Average diff (Sac on offense): 339.9 (-35.1 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -4041 (Sac favor, 115 plays)

It’s clear from the ToP and yards that Sac was able to control the game in its entirety. +2 in the TO margin killed any chance Butler had of making the most of their opportunities.

Yale @ Cal Poly | 51-28 CP

Yard difference: +174 CP

Point difference: +23 CP

Average diff (CP on offense): 342.5 (-32.5 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -3702 (CP favor, 114 plays)

Yale clearly made the best of their shots with 4.36 yards per point (30.5 yards per TD), but bleed too much. This game is nearly a mirror image of the Sac game and perhaps could have explained why their game was so close.

Incarnate Word @ Princeton | 52-28 Princeton

Yard difference: +93 Princeton

Point difference: +24 Princeton

Average diff (Princeton on offense): 348.1 (-26.9 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -2848 (Princeton favor, 106 plays)

Despite cruising past the competition, UIW got a taste of their own medicine in this game. It’s interesting that -2848 is one of the more meager gaps we’ve seen. Good on UIW for making the best of it despite a nearly 4 score game.

Semifinals

Dayton @ Sacramento State | 21-14 Sac

Yard difference: +199 Sac

Point difference: +7 Sac

Average diff (Sac on offense): 337.9 (-37.1 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -3338 (Sac favor, 90 plays)

In only 90 plays Sac was able to accumulate one of the largest gaps. Don’t let the MoV trick you, the yards were very indicative of who owned that game.

Princeton @ Cal Poly | 38-35 CP

Yard difference: +23 CP

Point difference: +3 CP

Average diff (CP on offense): 404.7 (+29.7 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: +3116 (Princeton favor, 105 plays)

Ladies and gentlemen, it finally happened, it took over 20 games but the loser finally was the team to play better. Princeton well outplayed Cal Poly but the Mustangs were able to make the most of their opportunities. I’m surprised how long it took for this to happen but I’m more surprised at how large the gap is.

FCS Championship Game

Sacramento State @ Cal Pol | 24-20 CP

Yard difference: +40 CP

Point difference: +4 CP

Average diff (CP on offense): 367.2 (-7.8 away from 375)

Cumulative difference gap: -638 (CP favor, 82 plays)

We got the game we got the Championship we both did and didn’t deserve. For how long it took in real-time, it had the second-fewest plays (MSU v DSU) and fourth smallest average diff. Cal Poly did come out ahead but very narrowly, but as late as 76 plays in Sac had the diff advantage.

Analysis

We’ll look at the combined stats for every playoff team first to overview. This will let us look at who had the best performance in the playoffs, however long or short. With the diff gap, we will change the sign convention to be positive is diff gap in your favor and negative being diff gap against you. And Avg. Diff will be treated from the offensive perspective of every team (with low being good). Here is the chart in order of seed:

And here is the same chart sorted by Total Diff Gap:

If you’d like to look at this in person and perhaps copy to your own spreadsheet to mess around with the numbers, here is a link to a spreadsheet with this data: (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e43ndg79p7ZXd81jb3UJGvjFQyT-TvQub5IU-7gEIIo/edit?usp=sharing)

Now I’ll let you draw your own conclusions but here are a few of mine:

Princeton seems to have played the best despite not winning the Championship. Their efforts in their Cal Poly game to win the diff battle despite losing the game certainly made the difference

Northern Colorado destroyed Eastern Washington enough to be a top 5 team by the end despite going 1-1 in the playoffs. San Diego also went 1-1 in the playoffs and was 3rd to last.

Ya boi Montana State did better overall than Montana.

2 of the 3 FBS teams ended up with positive overall diffs, but Presbyterian tanks them crew. All FBS caoches combined puts them just over 23rd place Hampton.

So 23/24 teams that won the diff battle also won the game. That’s a pretty impressive clip, so I decided I’d like to see the expected MoV based on the diff gap battle. Here’s what I found:

For every 140.1 diff gap, you’re expected to increase your MoV by 1 point.

For every 1 diff gap, you’re expected to increase your MoV by .007 points.

A 140 diff gap can happen on one play. On offense thats a 235 diff which is about a 7 yard gain. On defense that’s a 515 diff which is an incompletion or a 1 to 2 yard run. Of course this an inexact science but it’s interesting to see analytics that go to the FCFB molecular level.