Posted by

Aaron Nielsen ,

October 1, 2014 Email

Aaron Nielsen



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@ENBSports

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I'm beginning to ask myself a question regarding MLS I thought I never would: Is there too much money in the league? This revelation comes from my recent evaluation of the lower tiers of soccer in North America and going over MLS Union's recent player salaries across the league. I'm not trying to be facetious and although there has always been a disconnect to the money in pro sports, especially today, I look at some of the contracts MLS teams have given out this season and shake my head.



I certainly think it is a good thing that the league, I imagine, is generating the revenue to pay these salaries and that a fair percentage is being paid out to the players. However, it is how the money is being distributed, which almost reminds me of a person who just came into wealth and goes on a shopping spree. Most of these stories end up with the money running out and not much long-term benefit to the person who spent it.



As I wrote the last time the MLS Union released their salary information in April, seeing the players’ salaries allows for further evaluation of MLS and under a salary cap structure should reflect what value a player brings to each team or the league. An example of expected value would be with Toronto FC, where going into the season the amount they were paying on players resulted in the expectation for them to be one of the top teams in the league. Instead they are struggling mightily for consistency and if they make the playoffs, it will be by the skin of their teeth.



I will give Toronto FC the benefit of the doubt regarding the Jermain Defoe situation since much of it is out of the team’s control. However, I did mention in my season preview of Defoe having issues with injuries in the past and this could be a concern this season. Toronto FC’s other DP forward Gilberto also hasn't met expectations based on the transfer fee and salary, and many including myself voiced these concerns regarding this going into the season.



Toronto FC’s biggest disappointment this season, despite his effort and effectiveness in the Reds recent successful run, has been Michael Bradley. This could be regarded as slightly unfair because based on the position he is asked to play he might not be capable of scoring the goals or generating the assists that one would expect from a $6,500,000 salary, but once the salary was offered along with a significant transfer fee more was expected from him. Even if you dismiss the lack of his offensive expectations, Toronto FC’s record reflects underachievement when Bradley is in the line-up with an overall record of seven wins, ten losses and three ties while the club has allowed 34 goals in 20 games.



Bradley is one of a litany of players signed this year by Major League Soccer who reflect marketing more than they do performance. As part of US National Team players who represented the country in the last World Cup, they have benefited from a financial windfall and certainly more money than they would receive on a fair football market. Some of these players and salaries are: Clint Dempsey $6.7 Million, Omar Gonzalez $1.25 Million, and recent signings through the summer of Jermaine Jones by New England for $3.25 Million and DeMarcus Beasley by Houston at $800,000. Truthfully, the only fair value signings was Sporting KC’s package deal of Matt Besler and Graham Zusi for $600,000 each, both of whom are probably wishing they held out until after the World Cup in signing their respective designated player contracts.



Ironically, MLS rules were put in place to restrict clubs from overpaying players but even with the rules in place, the league has created a big market verse small market situation. Chivas USA, Chicago, Colorado and San Jose’s highest priced players are in the $400,000 range. Their overall salaries paid much less than the rest of the league, although also close to this group are DC United and Real Salt Lake, two of the more successful teams in the league this season.



DC United is paying Eddie Johnson $600,000, and he has been mostly a bust scoring only 5 goals, while Real Salt Lake are paying Álvaro Saborío $450,000, granted he's only played 13 games this season due to injury. Both DC United and RSL have made a number good front office moves including Real Salt Lake having the most underpaid US National Team player in Kyle Beckerman making $380,000, and most underpaid player in the league Javier Morales who given his abilities is only making $300,000 a season.



What I feel the greatest benefit these clubs have in not having high priced players is overall team depth and the coaches not being or feeling forced to play players just because of salary. A great example of this has been two former Toronto FC players, which highlights MLSE’s ineptitude, in giving away Luis Silva who has 11 goals and four assists with DC United making $100,000 a year and Joao Plata, who has 13 goals and 5 assists, while making only $70,000 and was on the league minimum with Toronto.



Admittedly, several high priced players have shined this season with Robbie Keane, who has been the league MVP in my opinion, leading the way, while players such as Landon Donovan, Thierry Henry, Obafemi Martins, Diego Valeri and the Whitecaps Pedro Morales all worth the investment in many ways. As well, the two clubs with the highest overall salary behind Toronto, Seattle and the LA Galaxy, have proven to be the best teams in the league as I projected at the start of the season. Especially in my type of analysis, if judged correctly, the most effective players should be reflective in team success and also be paid the most.



Over paying players is common in sport and generally reflects the overall amount of money in a league. In other North American professional sports and European Soccer there are countless examples of a team over valuing and compensating a player, or buying a player to show the club’s fan base, like Toronto FC, that the team is doing something to make things better. The difference compared to MLS, which is partly based on how the league is structured but I also feel is overspending, is looking at overall salaries compared to the average player in the league, then basing value on salary versus performance. This was in a paper I did for the MIT Sport Analytics Conference in 2012 and there is even more evidence today that salary compensation does not reflect performance in MLS.



This also only includes players who play, and it does not include the growing number of players who have been given contracts by the league via the academies or the draft. However, what you often see is teams also deciding to bring in additional players who play these positions at higher salaries and as a result play them instead. These prospects either end up on the bench, or as my recent USL Pro prospect handbook shows, out on loan with a USL Pro club. Even in the case of Luis Silva and Joao Plata, it was the injury or lack of performance of higher paid players on their respective teams that has given them the chance to prove their current success.



In my opinion, I look to league itself for this problem and primarily the league’s marketing arm. One of the common issues with soccer in North America, especially in comparison to other North American sports and soccer leagues around the World, is we don't develop our own stories and more often than not, we take ones that already exist. Jermaine Jones, despite being a bench player at Besiktas behind a Canadian in Atiba Hutchinson, is sought after because he played in the World Cup. While success stories domestically such as Luis Silva, Lee Ngyuen, Dillon Powers and Joao Plata and top prospects in NASL, USL Pro, NCAA and Academies, are either under reported or not at all. This is one reason why Portland will pay $1.2 Million to Liam Ridgewell based on his English Premier League experience and trade Mamadou Danso despite the club so far having a better goals against average when Danso was playing.



Originally MLS was a laugh in the eyes of world soccer for being a league where old players come to retire and names with past World Cups and European experience made a good salary, while most players in the league were making very little. I commend the league and the North American soccer fan for bringing the league to where even the entry-level salary is becoming respectable. However, in conversations I have had with agents and scouts around the World, the league is still looked down upon as a place now not only can you convince teams to buy older players, but also ones who have no prospects elsewhere.



Based on the current trend I don't see this changing. New MLS clubs NYC FC and Orlando have already offered millions to Frank Lampard, David Villa and Kaka. While the overall salary cap is set to increase, it will most likely go to a collection of players with a story that MLS public relations and marketing feels comfortable writing about. To fix this, the general soccer IQ needs to improve and hopefully the success of Sporting Kansas City last season, DC United and Real Salt Lake this year, and unfortunately the continued struggles of Toronto FC, will teach everyone associated to the league what the value of MLS truly represents.