Commodities for the Long Run

NBER Working Paper No. 22793

Issued in November 2016

NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing



This paper analyzes a novel data set of commodity futures prices over a long sample period starting in 1877, which allows us to shed new light on several important and controversial questions. We document that commodity futures returns (1) have been positive on average; (2) vary significantly across business cycles, inflation episodes, and periods of backwardation versus contango, (3) are driven mostly by variation of spot returns and therefore closely linked to the underlying commodity spot market; (4) perform well during inflation cycles and provide more return in backwardated states; and (5) display low correlation with stocks and bonds. These long-run stylized facts imply that commodity futures can add value to a diversified portfolio from an asset allocation perspective.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22793

Published: Ari Levine & Yao Hua Ooi & Matthew Richardson & Caroline Sasseville, 2018. "Commodities for the Long Run," Financial Analysts Journal, vol 74(2), pages 55-68.

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