The latest Fix analysis of the map represents that dual reality. Yes, Trump is in better shape in our latest map than he was when we last handicapped the 2016 race in mid-August. But he remains considerably behind Clinton in the race for 270 electoral votes.

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Here's the new map:



We've made four changes — all benefiting Trump — since last month.

First, we are pushing Iowa to lean Republican from our toss-up category. Iowa has consistently been more friendly to Trump than other traditional swing states — the result of being whiter as well as older and filled with more non-college-educated white voters. (Philip Bump wrote a terrific piece explaining Iowa — and Nevada — and Trump here.) Trump now has a 4.3-point edge over Clinton in Iowa, according to RealClearPolitics, a margin that puts it out of step with our other toss-up states (Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.)

We are doing the same with Georgia, where Clinton's team appears to be making a push, but Trump's recent consolidation of Republican voters suggests that the state simply isn't there yet for the Democrat to win a majority of the vote. Trump's lead in the Peach State is now 4.2 point, according to RealClearPolitics.

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We've also moved Missouri and Utah off the map entirely, with polling suggesting that these two reliably Republican states are reverting to their traditional behavior. Trump's lead is almost eight points in Missouri, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average; the last three polls in Utah have shown Trump ahead by 15, 20 and 12 points, respectively.

But even with those changes, Clinton still winds up with 273 electoral votes — three more than she needs to be elected. That means Clinton could lose the four states we currently rate as toss-ups, as well as every lean-Republican state, and still win.

Why? Because what Trump needs to do and which he has been unable to do just yet is move states leaning toward Clinton into the toss-up category. If you use the RealClearPolitics averages, Trump's best chances there are Virginia (Clinton +3.5) and Colorado (Clinton +3.7). In no other lean-Democratic state is Clinton leading by less than five points in the RealClearPolitics polling averages. Polling in Pennsylvania, the state that Trump is convinced he can win, puts him down 6.6 points.

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Unless and until Trump can put a few lean-Democratic states in play, Clinton will win. And as of today, she is still doing just that.

Here's the full list of competitive states as we currently rate them:

Toss-up (68 electoral votes)

Florida (29)

Ohio (18)

Nevada (6)

North Carolina (15)

Lean Democratic (72 electoral votes)

Colorado (9)

Michigan (16)

New Hampshire (4)

Pennsylvania (20)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

Lean Republican (33 electoral votes)

Arizona (11)

Georgia (16)#

Iowa (6)#