BERNIE SANDERS has had a good start in the Democratic primaries, coming a very close second behind Hillary Clinton in Iowa and walloping her in New Hampshire. But the race is turning from those two overwhelmingly white places to a slew of southern, western and urban states where black and Hispanic voters carry more political weight. In 2008, 30% of the Democrats who took part in caucuses in Nevada, which this year take place on February 20th, were either black or Hispanic. In South Carolina, which holds a primary on February 27th, 55% of the voters were black. Minority voters made up at least 30% of the electorate in half the states that will vote on Super Tuesday. So far, these groups have tended to favour Hillary Clinton (the Congressional Black Caucus recently endorsed her). Moreover, in other states that vote in March and where blacks are less prominent, Democratic voters have mostly described themselves as moderate or conservative: 63% did so in Oklahoma in 2008, for example, as did 60% in Ohio. Liberals were the majority in only two states that will vote on Super Tuesday: Massachusetts and Mr Sanders’s home state of Vermont (data were not available for Colorado and Minnesota).

Mrs Clinton must hope that black turnout will be as high as it was in 2008, when Barack Obama was running. But Mr Sanders will benefit if Democrats have shifted left. Eight years ago 54% of Democrats in Iowa and 56% in New Hampshire said they were liberal. In the recent primary elections those figures rose to 68% in both states.