YouGov polling likely understates Labour support but impact of referendum talk in northern England and among working class voters clear

Comment

The latest YouGov polling gives a clear indication to Labour of the impact of the continued attempts by centrist MPs, MEPs and candidates to push a new referendum in spite of the NEC’s decision this week to reject any commitment to a public vote in the party’s European election manifesto.

YouGov polling usually understates Labour support, but the headline figures show the new Brexit party leading strongly:

Brexit Party 30%

Labour 21%

Tory 13%

Fib Dems 10%

Greens 9%

Change UK 9%

UKIP 4%

Anti-Brexit and pro-referendum campaigners are already attempting to spin away the significance of the results, claiming that the Brexit party’s strong showing is a result of a cannibalised Tory vote. However, the detailed results do not bear that out.

According to YouGov’s data, the Brexit party:

is level with Labour in North of England

leads by 12% among working-class voters

leads by 11% in Wales and the Midlands

leads among male voters by 16%

Voting intention in European elections is unlikely to carry across to a general election, especially with a single-issue party featuring prominently. However, the indications are there that any equivocation over Brexit could do enough damage to Labour’s support to prevent the Labour government the country so desperately needs.

Even if the Brexit issue is done and dusted by the time of the next general election, the hangover of a perceived attempt to prevent the UK leaving the EU will mean the effects are not erased.

Labour can waste no time in putting talk of a new public vote in the box marked ‘done’ and focusing all its energies on showing the whole UK public its vision of a better – post-Brexit – Britain. In or out of the EU, continued right-wing government is a disaster for this country.

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