Dylan Hartley will discover on Tuesday or Wednesday the extent of his ban that could cost him the England captaincy in the short term and significantly damage his chances of leading the Lions on the three-Test tour to New Zealand next summer.

The disciplinary hearing will adjudicate on what punishment the Northampton hooker will receive for being sent off after catching Leinster’s Seán O’Brien with a swinging arm on Friday. He had been on the pitch for six minutes.

It was Hartley’s third sending-off in four years. He missed the 2013 Lions tour after his red card in the Premiership final led to an 11-week ban and he was ruled out of England’s 2015 World Cup campaign when banned for a headbutt.

A 10-week ban, the top end of the range of sanctions, goes into the Six Nations – England’s opening match against France is on 4 February. A mid-range ban of six weeks would leave Hartley without any rugby up to 21 January, when England go into their Six Nations camp. Eddie Jones, the national coach, was in the stands at Franklin’s Gardens on Friday, and brought his hand to his face when Hartley was dismissed.

The Lions head coach, Warren Gatland, says he will use the Six Nations rather than the autumn internationals as the barometer for deciding his squad and Hartley’s suitability to lead the tour has been questioned by the former Lion Brian O’Driscoll. “Mindless from Hartley. Lions Captain???!” he tweeted. “Anyone actually questioning the Hartley red card look at his reaction to it. Not a murmur of complaint from him. He knew what was coming.”

The former England captain Lawrence Dallaglio was highly critical of Hartley. “Without doubt it’s a red card, there’s no question about it,” he told BT Sport. “Seán O’Brien went back into the changing room and hasn’t been able to come out for the rest of the game.

“It was an unnecessary challenge, it was a swinging arm. It is reckless and got what it deserved.

“It’s now time for Dylan to go away and have a little think about what’s important for him. Dylan has kind of checked out of playing for Northampton this season. He played for them once, at the start at the season. He’s been brilliant for England, according to Eddie Jones. He’s been a good leader among that group, but he’s just checked out of playing for his club and I don’t think you can do that.”

Hartley had been among the players mentioned by Gatland as a possible captain earlier in the week. He was given the England captaincy by Jones at the start of the Six Nations.

Speaking before Friday’s incident, Gatland said the captaincy had been good for Hartley, adding: “Let’s be frank, there were issues over his discipline: the red mist would come down every now and then on a player who has been suspended for more than a year in his career. He has done a good job with England, undefeated as captain, a special record.”

Gatland added: “I am in a win-win situation at the moment’. Eddie Jones has put a lot of faith in Dylan as a leader and Rory Best [another hooker] has done a good job with Ireland, growing into the leadership role, conducting himself and speaking very well.

“Sam Warburton was the captain last time so he has the experience, but there is pressure on him to hold his body together and bring continuity of performance into his game. We know he is quality when he is fit and I will take only those who are fit. There is also a lot of competition in his position, so there is a lot to consider.

“It is important we remember the past. In some previous Lions tours, tour captains haven’t been the best player in their position. And it was said because you are the tour captain we have to select you to start in the Test even though another player might have been better. Whoever does get selected as tour captain will be told that, if someone is playing better than them in their position, they won’t be the captain of the Test side.”

Gatland said his choice would not be confined to the captains of the four home unions. The Wales lock Alun Wyn Jones, who led the Lions in the third Test in Australia in 2013, has been widely cited as a candidate, but Gatland pointed out that his position was among the most fiercely competitive. “The guys who have captained their country are the front-runners,” he said. “I will pick the squad first and then look at the captaincy contenders. If that person would make the Test XV if it were picked the next day, he will have a good chance. If you have two or three players vying for a position, you are taking a risk. At the moment you wouldn’t pick Conor Murray when you have Ben Youngs fighting for the scrum-half jersey. You would not be picking the outside-half when there are four quality 10s; probably the second-row as well. Some players almost automatically rule out a contender because of their competition.”

Gatland said that, if the squad were picked today, England would provide the most players. “Fifteen or 17, maybe, not as many as 2005. Then four to six Scots, six or seven Welsh and 10 or 11 Irish. That is what I have loosely in my head but things can change. The Six Nations is the competition, not the autumn when no points are at stake. The championship is when it really matters.

“In 2013 the game in the last round between Wales and England was effectively a trial. Wales’s domination tipped the balance for some toss-ups in the end and guys like Chris Robshaw, who is playing well for England, missed out. The last game next year between Ireland and England could be similar: it could decide the captain, the back row, outside-half and second row, where England have real depth.

“England have done well, but there is massive motivation for people to play well against them. Two Ireland players who impressed me in Chicago [where they beat New Zealand] were Conor Murray and Robbie Henshaw. I may not have done them any favours saying that because, if I were playing against them, I would be thinking: ‘If I have a better performance than you today …’”