After the Uttar Pradesh and Bihar by-polls, where the Bharatiya Janata Party suffered setbacks, realpolitik now moves to the elections in Karnataka. These elections will set the tone for the elections to three states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – slated to be held at the end of the year and the Lok Sabha elections to be held in Q1-Q2 2019. The triangular contest between the Congress, the BJP and the Janata Dal(Secular) (JDS)is being keenly watched. While the BJP was leading in 132 assembly segments in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a comfortable majority in a house of 224 seats, the Congress was leading in 77 and the JDS in 15.

While the Congress is again relying on AHINDA (Dalits, Backward Classes, Kurubas & Muslims) to bail out the party, BJP is banking on LIBRA (Lingayats and Brahmins) and JDS on Vokkaligas. While opinion polls predict a close contest, it appears that the BJP is slowly inching ahead in the campaign and that its chances have brightened.

Ten factors suggesting BJP is ahead in Karnataka

1. Historical trend of people of Karnataka voting out incumbent governments

The people of the state have exhibited a history of throwing out the ruling party. Since 1985, the state has never re-elected the incumbent. Power changes hands at the end of every five years in Karnataka, like in many states in the southern part of India. No chief minister has returned to power in Karnataka since Ramakrishna Hegde in 1985. From 1985 to 1999, power oscillated between the Janata Dal constituents and the Congress party. The trend was broken in 2004 when people gave a hung verdict. Congress managed to retain the Chief Minister’s chair with the support of JDS. In 2008, the BJP won the state for the first time, losing out to Congress in 2013.

2. Strong Modi factor in Karnataka

Prime Minister Modi is very popular in Karnataka. The strong crowds thronging to listen to his speech is a testimony to this fact. I was on vacation to Coorg last Diwali and the driver of the cab I had taken addressed Modi as a ‘tiger – protector of Hindutva’, when we passed by one of his billboards. Forty-two per cent supporters of BJP in the state would not have voted for the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections had Modi not been named the Prime Ministerial candidate as per a CSDS post-poll survey. This is one and half times of his all India average leadership ratings.

3. BJP’s good form in the nine out of ten states where it managed to form governments in the last one year

Notwithstanding the bypoll losses, the electoral momentum is with the BJP. In the last one year, elections have been held in ten states, and the BJP with its allies has managed to form a government in all of them barring Punjab. In seven of the states, it defeated the incumbent government in power. Even in minority-dominated states of the north east, BJP has defeated the 25-year-old Left government in Tripura. That being the case, people of Karnataka would surely not like to be the odd one out.

4. Hollow claims on performing better than BJP governments

CRISIL has ranked 16 big states of India on three parameters of growth, inflation and fiscal position from fiscal 2013 and 2017. While Siddaramaiah boasts of performing better than the BJP ruled governments, CRISIL research shows the state ranked at six with Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chandigarh and Haryana, all BJP ruled states, ahead of it.