"With all their political strength, the Republicans of today are staring at a stark policy divide. The Republican Party leadership and long-standing ideological positions are almost completely opposed to the ones that got Trump into office."

In 1994, the Democrats were also coming off a high. After being out of the presidency since 1980, the party had once again consolidated total federal control. The Democrats were in a stronger position than a century before – they had controlled the House since 1954 and they had been in charge of the Senate for all but the first six years of the Reagan administration since 1954.

As a century before, the Democrats were divided on a number of key policies — trade, social issues, gun control and healthcare. But in 1994, the Republicans came roaring back, shattering the Democrats New Deal coalition and taking control of both branches of Congress and many state legislatures. Since then, the Republicans have controlled the House for all but four years.

With all their political strength, the Republicans of today are staring at a stark policy divide. The Republican Party leadership and long-standing ideological positions are almost completely opposed to the ones that got Donald Trump into office. Their president-elect ran as neo-isolationist, calling for a pull back on many foreign alliances. He was also an extreme protectionist, who would crack down on Wall Street, the carried interest tax and may be open to numerous social policy positions similar to the Democrats. During the Republican primaries, Trump was basically alone on stage in espousing these views.

The GOP has for years been very strong proponents of free trade agreements. The largest wing in the party has also been in favor of an extremely activist foreign policy – they've attacked Barack Obama for not being more supportive of action. The party has opposed tax increases, including changing the carried interest, and many have been opposed to same sex marriage laws and many of the social policies that Trump has made noises on adopting.

And the House Speaker just called for a radical revamp of Medicare, a position highly unlikely to be taken well by the party's largest base – senior citizens. The head of Trump's social security transition team has in the past called for privatizing social security. None of these positions jibe with the stated philosophy of the party leader.

The Democrats may have their own divides, but they are relatively small. Trade has been one issue that has divided Democrats, but following this election, there is an excellent chance that the Democrats will find a way to unify on the subject.

In addition to these facts, there is the basic numbers that should concern Republicans. For the sixth out of the last seven presidential elections, the Republicans lost the popular vote. While it is not costing them the White House, counting on the Electoral College and gerrymandering to repeatedly save the day may be completely unsustainable.

Just look at the Republicans practical margins of victory in the presidential elections – the shift in voters needed for the election to flip. In the three Republican triumphs, this shift was significantly smaller than in the four Democratic ones. A shift of a little over 200,000 voters in three states in 2012 would throw the election to Romney. While the numbers are still out for the 2016, we can see that it would have likely have taken about 100,000 — that number may go down a bit — to give Clinton the election. It seems that the Republican margin for error in keeping the White House is significantly less than the Democratic one.

The Republicans had a great Election Day. With total control over the federal government, anyone would rather have the cards they are playing. But any party that continually fails to win the popular vote and that has such a deep schism in political policy between the president and the established leadership ignores the lessons of history at their peril.

Commentary by Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College in New York. He blogs at The Recall Elections Blog. Follow him on Twitter @recallelections.

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