Melbourne is on track for one of its wettest four-month periods since records began, with an icy blast from the Southern Ocean and heavy rainfall expected to arrive today and hang around Victoria until Monday.

Key points: Snow is expected to hit Alpine areas and the Grampians on Thursday

Snow is expected to hit Alpine areas and the Grampians on Thursday A severe weather warning is in place for Victoria's north-east today

A severe weather warning is in place for Victoria's north-east today Flash flooding is not expected to hit Melbourne but the city could see hail

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Michael Efron said rainfall this year had "just about exceeded what we had for all of last year for Melbourne".

The city has received 373.8 millimetres of rain in just four months, less than 1mm shy of the total rainfall for 2019.

"It just shows how dry last year was but also, once we finish this month it will be one of the wettest first four months of the year since records began," Mr Efron said.

"[Yesterday was] the last nice day for some time. We are looking at pretty chilly conditions especially from Thursday onwards."

Victoria was hit with storms and flash flooding in February and March. ( Twitter: @DeanSgarbossa, file photo )

Victorians should prepare for a heavy downpour beginning in the north-west this morning and travelling across the state into the evening.

Western parts of the state including Horsham can expect rainfall totals between 5mm and 15mm.

Gippsland and central districts including Melbourne can expect between 15mm and 35mm.

"It certainly looks like Pandora's weather box is open and it's time to break out the winter wardrobe," senior forecaster Kevin Parkyn said.

"We've got the full gamut of weather with this cold burst.

"Melbourne's in line, particularly the eastern suburbs for another soaking," he said.

But the heaviest rain is expected in the north-east including Bright, Falls Creek and Wangaratta with between 5mm and 60mm expected, and up to 120mm in elevated areas.

"We wouldn't be surprised if we actually crack 100mm on some of the Alpine peaks. We're talking about significant rainfall," Mr Parkyn said.

The region has also been warned to expect damaging winds of up to 90 kilometres per hour.

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume. Watch Duration: 37 seconds 37 s Heavy rain caused flooding in Geelong and Melbourne's eastern suburbs in mid-February.

"There is a risk of flash flooding across the north-east and we have issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall for that area," Mr Efron said.

Local hail and thunder are possible on Thursday and Friday across the state including Melbourne.

Flash flooding is not expected to hit Melbourne but snow is forecast for the Grampians.

And it is going to be a chilly weekend, with temperatures not set to increase above the low teens until Monday.

The Department of Transport said the advice to Victorians was clear — "if you can stay home, you must stay home".

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for the North East and parts of the East Gippsland district.

A Flood Watch is also current for parts of the North East, Central and Gippsland regions.

Tim Wiebusch, from the State Emergency Service (SES), said the key message was "don't flirt with floodwaters".

"Don't play in it, don't ride in it, don't walk in it," he said.