If Rogers Communications seizes control of the Toronto Maple Leaf empire, it will mean the likely death of CBC’s Hockey Night In Canada, industry analysts say.

“It would start a seismic shift in the way hockey rights are acquired in Canada and, at the very least, start off one of the most profound bidding wars we’ve ever seen for the NHL broadcasting rights,” said Steve Billinger, CBC’s general manager of digital programming and business development ming until he left the national broadcaster two months ago.

“CBC could well be the one left at the table . . . CBC doesn’t have the money to compete and even it did, it would receive very hard questions about whether that’s the right way to spend it.”

Billinger was among dozens of leading media analysts peering into the future of sports broadcasting yesterday following a Star report that Rogers is in talks to purchase a controlling interest of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment’s key properties – the Leafs, Raptors, Toronto FC and minor league Marlies.

The reported offer for a 66 per cent stake in MLSE currently owned by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan tops $1 billion.

Officials with both Rogers and the Pension Plan have declined comment.

If realized, the cable giant’s unprecedented power play would forever change the sports industry landscape, say experts.

“That would throw the television market into a complete upheaval,” said Peter Sisam, who as vice-president of IMG Canada has negotiated many major sports broadcasting deals.

Canadian NHL broadcasting rights are sewn up until 2014.

But if Rogers arrives at the next auction as a beefed-up behemoth with the most lucrative sports properties in the country, it could go toe-to-toe with TSN and CBC and win, said Billinger.

“TSN has money and owns networks and they’ll be fighting without question. Who does that leave? The CBC is already under pressure.”

Observers say a Leaf-powered Rogers would likely reclaim the 10 Leafs games it sold to TSN as well as many Raptors games.

It could even go after TSN’s national cable NHL package in order to supply content for its new national channel Sportsnet One.

“Going after the national cable deal would make sense,” said Sisam.

With some of its key content gone, TSN and its parent CTV could be forced to take aim at Hockey Night In Canada, the country’s most iconic hockey program.

Armed with more channels and platforms than CBC, the private network would almost surely win that battle and end CBC’s five-decades hold on hockey.

Both CBC and TSN said Wednesday that they won’t comment on speculation.

Billinger isn’t the only former CBC official warning of the network’s diminishing ability to compete for content.

In an October published report, former CBC president Robert Rabinovitch said, “I really doubt that the CBC is going to be able to compete in the future . . . I think we’re at a point right now where we may have to ask ourselves the question about where is public broadcasting and why do we still have the public broadcaster?”

Controlling the Leafs and Raptors, along with the company’s current ownership of the Toronto Blue Jays, would create a sports and broadcasting monolith.

In addition to its four regional Sportsnet channels and one national network in Sportsnet One, Rogers would also take control of MLSE’s Leafs TV, Raptors TV and GolTV channels.

The company would have the ownership power to create a massive cable network featuring Leafs, Raptors and Toronto FC games – well beyond the means of its competitors.

“This is the biggest sports deal without question in Canadian history,” said Billinger. “It’s historic.”

It wouldn’t necessarily mean hockey would disappear from CBC airwaves altogether, he said.

The crown corporation could still strike deals with Rogers to maintain a hockey presence, even if much diminished.

“I envision if the CBC was smart, they’d be on the phone tomorrow having partnership decisions with Rogers. They probably are.”

Sources close to the talks say the prospects of never-before-seen dominance in Canadian sports broadcasting could be too tantalizing for Rogers to resist.

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“It’s a major move,” said Brian Cooper, president and CEO of S&E Sponsorship Group. “Content is king. And this would be buying the kingdom.

“I think it will happen. There is no more strategic buyer for this than Rogers. No matter what the price, it is securing the future to draw new subscribers for all of their platforms.”

The Teachers Pension Plan has a $17 billion funding shortfall to pay out its pension obligations, according to its 2010 annual report.

Selling MLSE would take a chunk out of that shortfall, said forensic accountant Charles Smedmor who reviewed the Pension Plan's financials.

“Eliminating that funding shortfall probably keeps Teachers' management up late, more so than the Leafs' won-lost record. That is their hot button. Their duty is to the pension plan members and they will not and cannot be sentimental about the investments, even the Leafs.”

A media company like Rogers would be a strategic buyer for MLSE because its need for broadcast content is likely to inspire a better than fair market value offering, he said.

“There are synergies between MLSE and Rogers,” said Smedmor. “Those synergies mean that that a higher fair value between Teachers and a Rogers for MLSE would be reasonable.”

For example, Rogers’ vast media empire could quickly gear up to produce Leaf-themed magazines, streaming video and wireless applications destined for its cell phone network, websites and TV properties.

“You'd get highlights on every platform they have, unique and exclusive,” said Cooper. “The Leaf games will be on their radio stations, unique video content will be everywhere in their digital products. And what about contests, like four tickets to tonight’s game using your Rogers handheld phone?”

Some industry watchers and fans raised concerns yesterday about a potential Rogers monopoly on the country’s biggest sports franchises.

Alexa Keating, spokesperson for the Competition Bureau, said that while significant mergers in Canada require review by the federal agency, she could not say whether a Rogers purchase of MLSE would breach competition laws.

But Ian Morrison, spokesperson for the independent watchdog group Friends of Canadian Broadcasting, says federal broadcast regulators will have to look at the deal.

``Anything that restricts the marketplace for television properties is a concern of the regulator,” he said, citing specifically the case of the Toronto Raptors because MLSE controls TV rights for a package of their games. The NHL controls all but the 51 Leafs regional games.

Keith McIntyre, a Toronto sports marketing expert, said there’s “something going on behind the scenes here,” pointing to Wednesday’s retirement announcement by MLSE CEO Richard Peddie.

“If you're bringing in and grooming a new CEO for an organization like this, this would be the time to do it.”

With the marketing and ownership clout that would come with MLSE control, a bulked up Rogers would become a towering presence.

“This is huge,” said McIntyre. “Could we see changing dynamics with CBC and TSN? Conceivably, anything is there to be changed (if the deal is done).”

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