Implications of the Nerfs

Synopsis of the Nerf Analysis with some words on the Mini Expansion

It hasn’t been long since the last nerfs, but we already have another update right on the day the mini expansion is going to be released. I’ll be going into detail on why another nerf update was announced so soon, but not much about the mini expansion, because the next environment will be drastically different and there are only 2 days left until release. I would rather talk about the mini expansion after it’s released, for accurate data and a new meta analysis, so wait for the next post if you are interested!

On a side note, I want to say how much I hate the existence of the mini expansion, which I call a “DLC in disguise”. Damn it Cygames.. my wallet is being squeezed dry by this game.. Oh well, we are prisoners to this weeb waifu card game so there’s not much we can do, we’ll end up falling victim to this bait while complaining either way.

Cygames Data Analysis, the Nerfs and their Effect on the Meta

While there were only 2 nerfs, Cygames still released some statistical data to accompany the patch notes, which is great for us to analyze. The pre-nerf win rate data in the Rotation format is shown below:

First, let’s take a look at the rotation data – “Arcus Shadowcraft, midrange decks that include Arcus”, “highest win rate at 59.1%” and “highest usage rate at 16.2%” can be seen in the data above.

The wording is quite awkward for the deck description, which is because people have combined Arcus and Midrange Shadow, although which side you lean towards is more playstyle/preference-based (2 Arcus, 3 Gilnelise vs 3 Arcus, 2 Gilnelise vs 2 Arcus, 2 Gilnelise).

It is no surprise that Midrange Shadow has the highest win rate and usage rate, with the introduction of cards such as Cerberus and Gilnelise, in addition to the nerf on Galmieux to push the buff on Shadow further, mentioned in the first meta analysis. The fact that it has both the highest usage rate and highest win rate however, hints at its ease-of-use, because we have to remember that the data most likely includes all masters (low masters as well) to grandmasters, given their wording in past patch notes.

It is a relatively simple deck with a lot of on-curve play, e.g. Belenus on 2 -> Skull ring on 3 -> Lady Grey + another 2 drop on 4 -> Cerberus on 5. People have been complaining about its oppressiveness given all the power cards it now has access to.

There were various suggestions for the nerfs from the community, to list the most popular ones – Nerf Cerberus, Lady Grey and even Gilnelise (because Shadow is the best at utilizing her effects right now). But now, let’s take a look at the actual nerf:

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SKULL RING?????????

Let’s get back on track:

Why was skull ring nerfed? We can do the math now to justify that.

Skull ring at 3 cost – Summons 2 skeletons = 1/1 + 1/1, reanimate (2) (usually reanimates belenus, ferry, lady grey), so given the stats of the usual reanimation and adding it to the 2 skeletons: 1/1 + 1/1 + 2/2 = 4/4. 4/4 stats are a total of 8 points, given that a fully statted follower at 4 cost is 3/4 and 5 cost is 4/5, it’s between that range in terms of stat value relative to cost. The countdown of 2 makes the 2 drop come out at turn 5, meaning that there is no immediate threat of such high stats on board when it is dropped at first.

The countdown itself has its benefits. It is important for Shadow to flood the board all at once within a turn, so that the enemy does not get the chance to pick off each follower one-by-one. Skull ring activates on turn 5, which overlaps directly with the Cerberus curve and she is nearly always evolved for her insane random ping last words effect, which the reanimated unit receives and a minimum of 4 followers are created for the board, given that the enemy cleared the previous one clean. This kind of powerplay is now impossible.

Making it a 4 cost delays the reanimation to turn 6, which is an awkward turn where Shadow drops another Cerberus or simply fills the board with as many 2 drops as possible, making it easier for enemies to deal with as the available playorbs on the powerplay turn are now higher. The effective stat to cost ratio is also worsened, because now it is a 4 cost 4/4, which is overstatted by only 1 point instead, but that is no worry because turn 4 is usually where Shadow drops 2 2 drops that usually amount to a total of 4/4 stats immediately, or with an evolved Lady Grey it is even better. This means that skull ring with the nerf applied may not have the opening and utility to justify its usage in the future, so taking it out of current lists and replacing it with other 3 drops may be the way to go (Rulenye comeback flag set).

People may argue that this nerf was unnecessary or that simply nerfing one of the cards listed previously would’ve done the job. Cygames’ reasoning for this could be the introduction of the mini-expansion on the same date, which could easily turn the meta upside down and tiers of certain decks may experience massive changes. Of course, given that Shadow still has its powerful tools to work with, it is highly unlikely for the mini-expansion cards to change their standing on the tiers too much, but I do see the logic in waiting for after the release before applying further changes. Therefore, it is not ideal to make big changes according to the current meta, when a new one is about to be made.

Now, let’s take a look at the data for the Unlimited format:

Again, Midrange Shadowcraft is the top tier monster here as well, with a 58.5% win rate and usage rate of 14.5%, both being the highest numbers for the format. It is worth mentioning that the skull ring nerf prevents highrolls on Atomy in unlimited. Although, if their aim was hitting Shadow in both formats, wouldn’t a Cerberus nerf have done the job better? But I digress..

For this format, we will be taking a closer look at what is the 2nd place in terms of performance, which is Aggro Dragoncraft. It holds an incredibly strong win rate of 57.2% and usage rate of 10.0%, showing similar issues to the imbalance of Shadowcraft.

Aggro Dragon is fundamentally about flooding the board and attacking the enemy leader’s face whenever the opportunity arises, with enough low cost units and storm followers to pressure the enemy throughout the game. The utility of said low cost followers are extremely high, since most of them are fully statted while having added benefits of their own e.g. Servant of Disdain – 2pp 2/2 (fully statted) and has the effect of drawing a card each time it is damaged and survives.

Nerf predictions are relatively hard for this one, because each individual follower has incredible utility and all of it adding up is what makes this deck work so effectively, so let’s take a look at the nerfed card right away:

This nerf isn’t too surprising, since Hippogryph Rider is an extremely strong card that could potentially have 4 attack added to its stats just by having a board set up on the previous turn, making it a 6/4 and potentially 8/6 if evolved. A 5 cost follower that can hit the enemy’s face directly for 6 or 8 attack is extremely powerful and ignores basic stat/effect guidelines set by other cards (as most Dragon cards do, given their nature of ramp and all). It does not have an apparent downside and fills the 5 curve nicely, since many of Aggro Dragon’s cards are 2pp and it comes down before most enemies can clear the board and ward up.

Question is however – Does this really address the issues with Aggro Dragon?

To answer this question better than I can, since I am not an unlimited and dragon main, I have interviewed an individual that is well-known in the Shadowverse community for his love for aggro decks and the unlimited format:

Kuru from Team Revelation

Q: What do you think about Hippogryph Rider?

A: Hippo is good when you have a board, in this format, every time you have a board you are already winning or the match-up is incredibly favored so its a really “win more” card.

So according to Kuru, this card is often overkill and is not required in Aggro Dragon decks.

It seems that the number 1 ranked ladder grinder from Japan in unlimited is not using this card either and is having great success, so it seems that Aggro Dragon can completely ignore this change, surprisingly enough.

Kuru’s recent tweet regarding this is shown below:

Nice nerf to a card no one good plays in aggro dragon guys#shadowverse — Kuru (@rev_kuru) November 23, 2018

I have asked him for his deck that he is using for his ladder climbing journey and it seems that it is a deck with small modifications from the number 1 ranked player’s deck:

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Some interesting choices we can see here are 1 Siegfried, 1 Aiela, 2 copies of Aina and Aqua Nereid instead of Dragon Afficionado.

Justification for each tech was asked and he answered:

For Aiela – Aiela at 1 is because the evo is generally a defensive play and theres not too many match-ups you don’t want to be proactive in, but its a “sacky” card.

For Siegfried – Siegfried is a 1-off and more of a tempo choice, not so much of i want to curve specifically into him.

For Aina – Aina is sometimes kinda clunky at 3.

For Aqua Nereid – I think Nereid and Afficionado are very close in card quality and it’s really player preference, though I don’t really like that word.

I would like to thank Kuru for the contribution to this article! Make sure you give his deck a try. Follow him on Social Media and feel free to ask him questions, he is very kind and willing to help people (he even offers free coaching!).

Final Words by Asu

Thanks for reading my second article for my new blog! I was kind of hesitant about making a nerf analysis when there were only 2 nerfs.. It made me wonder if there was enough to talk about, but somehow there was a lot more to talk about than I thought 😛

Make sure you look out for the next Meta Analysis after the mini-expansion is released~

– Asu