Math!

Abstract ​

Reasonable Preparation ​

Sleep ​

Sets Venusaur-Mega @ Venusaurite

Ability: Chlorophyll

EVs: 220 HP / 36 Def / 116 SpD / 136 Spe

Calm Nature

IVs: 0 Atk

- Sleep Powder

- Leech Seed

- Sludge Bomb

- Substitute



Snorlax @ Normalium Z

Ability: Thick Fat

EVs: 252 Atk / 252 Def / 4 SpD

Adamant Nature

- Yawn

- Protect

- Belly Drum

- Double-Edge



Swampert-Mega @ Swampertite

Ability: Torrent

EVs: 168 HP / 176 Atk / 36 SpA / 128 SpD

Brave Nature

- Yawn

- Protect

- Earthquake

- Ice Beam



Jumpluff @ Wide Lens

Ability: Infiltrator

EVs: 48 HP / 208 Def / 252 Spe

Timid Nature

IVs: 0 Atk

- Sleep Powder

- Leech Seed

- Substitute

- Protect



Gengar-Mega @ Gengarite

Ability: Cursed Body

EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe

Timid Nature

IVs: 0 Atk

- Hypnosis

- Hex

- Sludge Wave

- Hidden Power [Ice]



Smeargle @ Normalium Z

Ability: Own Tempo

EVs: 252 HP / 4 Def / 252 Spe

Timid Nature

IVs: 0 Atk

- Spore

- Imprison

- Transform

- Substitute



Breloom @ Toxic Orb

Ability: Poison Heal

EVs: 32 HP / 36 Def / 224 SpD / 216 Spe

Timid Nature

IVs: 0 Atk

- Spore

- Leech Seed

- Substitute

- Toxic



Camerupt-Mega @ Cameruptite

Ability: Solid Rock

EVs: 248 HP / 224 Def / 36 SpD

Modest Nature

IVs: 0 Atk

- Yawn

- Protect

- Flamethrower

- Ancient Power



Vivillon-Marine @ Leftovers

Ability: Compound Eyes

EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe

Timid Nature

IVs: 0 Atk

- Sleep Powder

- Substitute

- Hurricane

- Quiver Dance

*If the opponent can outspeed and OHKO/Taunt, or the opponent wins outright, regardless of whether not the sleep move is the ideal play, it will not be counted as a situation in which sleep is used

Sleep Math "Mon X": SleepTotalFromSpreadsheet*LeadUsage*SleepMoveUsage=%

Snorlax: .5867*1.962*.5783=.665%

Mega Venusaur: .503*.1685*.592=.5%

Mega Swampert: .6075*.4442*.6309=.298%

Jumpluff: .766*.2746*.9921=.209%

Smeargle: .649*.2618*.9897=.168%

Mega Gengar: .7172*.0039*.4327=.12%

Breloom: .6072*.1844*.8644=.097%

Vivillon: .7181*.0686*.9671=.048%

Mega Camerupt: .4817*.0951*.4696=.022%

Total: 2.117%

Snorlax ​

VR Matchups Yawn





















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VR Matchups Curse





















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This post aims to take a critical look at the statistics, fairness, and ease of counterplay for sleep and Snorlax. Using smogon.com/stats, we can find how often any given Pokemon is used, lead with, and uses a certain move, which will be the basis for much of the statistical analysis. The ultimate goal when looking at such stats is to find out how often hax will cause the Pokemon in question to win, allowing us to decide whether or not the amount of hax is acceptable relative to the Pokemon's positive impact.Aside from raw numbers, another important factor for whether or not something is banworthy is the degree to which teambuilding warps around it. For a healthy threat, reliable counterplay should be available, somewhat reliable counterplay should beavailable, and non-specialized checks and counters should be available. How might this apply to, say, Mega Gyarados? Gyarados has a few Pokemon that can beat it with near perfect reliability (Mega Venusaur, Mega Altaria, Primarina, Tapu Fini), many Pokemon that can beat it that are susceptible to hax (Mega Charizard Y, SD Mimikyu, Mega Metagross, Landorus-T, Genesect), and among the things that beat it, some don't require specialized/high opportunity cost sets to beat it. These ideas will be important to understand the post.In order to estimate the amount of games that are influenced by sleep hax, we'll first need sets for our sleep users.A few notes... 1) we're using 1630 stats, 2) we're arbitrarily cutting off stats after the 150th most-used Pokemon, 3) Whimsicott, Mega Sceptile, Togekiss and Mega Altaria can viably use sleep, but according to usage stats, they're not used enough to be considered significant here (less than 3.5% usage), 4) Mega Blastoise, Sylveon and Xurkitree use sleep based on usage stats, but as they don't have good sleep sets, they will be excluded, 5) Pokemon with multiple viable sleep sets (Mega Venusaur, Smeargle, Breloom) will be counted as using only their primary set for the sake of simplicity, 6) this is imprecise, and should be treated as such, 7) as per the nature of this, subjectivity will be completely rampant. Sorry.So, how does the math work? I'll be supplying you with this figure: approximately how frequently you will have a sleep move used on you. A matchups list will be created in which each situation that sleep would be used is noted*. The Pokemon's lead usage (how often it is actually used, not just is put on a team) will be multiplied by the combined lead usage of all the mons which the given Pokemon would use sleep against. Finally, all of the sleep users' numbers will be added together. I'll be using this spreadsheet to show the bulk of the data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18EAIyZhiDh0Qpw5hmCj9F4Xz2wnW_yFr453d8CTYrHE/edit?usp=sharing 2.117%. We'll round it up to a very generous 2.5%.. Additionally, factoring in the accuracy of the sleep moves, we can estimate that 1.92% of games involve you actually being put to sleep. The important thing to be thinking about here in regards to whether or not it should be banned is positives things lost vs negative things lost. Ultimately, I think that that a ~2% chance for such a move to even be used on you is pretty low and that the teambuilding value sleep/sleep users bring to the metagame is more important. As such, I don't think that sleep should be banned, but you can interpret this data however you wish. I wanted to provide a second figure, but after doing this, I realized that providing it take absolutely ages, so I decided to do it only for Snorlax, the most bannable sleep user.The figure that I want to provide here is how often you will lose to Snorlax (the sleep set) in situations where you should have won. Of course, "should have won" is very subjective. I'll be defining it as any situation in which you win over 50% of the time. It's a fairly arbitrary number, but I think that it works well per a teambuilding mindset and in that there aren't really any non-arbitrary numbers here. The doc this time will contain a list of Pokemon that Snorlax requires 3 turns of sleep to beat, again, cut off after the 150th most used Pokemon. Pokemon which have complex matchups will have their own sheet dedicated to them so that you can see the math. We'll also be under the assumption that any given play is equally probable when it comes to things like Substitute. Here's the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AT2fBkSCJiw6-yeajf4dX9W69FCgQQ43LUzPZkGc6vY/edit?usp=sharing The frequency at which Snorlax sleep haxes to win is genuinely pretty low so long as the Snorlax user knows the best plays (I was really surprised at how well a good Snorlax user can avoid relying on sleep rolls when I did the math) - only 3.6%. However, this fails to take into account the degree to which things have warped around Snorlax, specifically Substitute and Taunt. Against YawnLax, as a Substitute user, you need to use Substitute as Snorlax uses Yawn, and against CurseLax, as a Taunt user, you need to use Taunt as Snorlax uses Curse/Amensia. If you fail to do this, Snorlax can simply brute past you. While I put many things in the spreadsheet originally, I realized that 3 turns of sleep wasn't the threat - the threat was failing to use Substitute at the right time (Landorus, for example). The degree to which A) Pokemon run these moves with their only intention being to beat Snorlax, and B) players select the wrong move, expecting either a different play or different set. Another aspect of Snorlax's strength is its straight-up win percentage vs the meta. W for Snorlax win, L for Snorlax loss, V for variable/play-dependantSo all in all, we're looking at 49 wins, 35 losses, and 17 variables for YawnLax and 47/39/15 for CurseLax. Counting the variables as genuine 50/50s, that's about 60% of the VR that Yawn Snorlax beats. Perhaps not banworthy on its own, but frightening nonetheless. What's more frightening is the lack ofcounterplay, however. Across the entire VR, excluding D tier, we're looking at 26 Pokemon that beat it regardless of sleep rolls, plays, or sets. Out of the 26, 9 need non-standard sets to beat it reliably. To sum that up, almost half of Snorlax "counters" are unreliable, three quarters of the VR is unable to beat Snorlax reliably, and out of its hard counters, 1/3 need to run off-meta/suboptimal sets to beat it. I think that that's fairly banworthy.I may do another post in a similar vein for Deoxys-S and Mimikyu soontmWTF where is my daily official monopoke?????