by Vince Verhei

Dan Marino? Peyton Manning? Drew Brees? You are officially on notice. Aaron Rodgers is halfway home to breaking your records.

Rodgers is on pace to set all-time standards in passing yards (breaking Marino's record, set in 1984), passer rating (Manning, 2004), and completion percentage (Brees, 2009). He's dominating in other statistics as well. He's averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt. That's the best rate since 1954 (albeit by the slimmest of margins – he's ahead of Kurt Warner's 2000 campaign by 0.04 inches per throw). If he gets any better, he'll join Sid Luckman, Otto Graham, and Norm Van Brocklin as the only passers to average 10 yards per attempt in a season. And Rodgers is also avoiding turnovers -– his interception rate of 1.1 percent would be one of the five best seasons in that category.

Those are the basic numbers. What do the advanced stats tell us? FO breaks down NFL play-by-play data into two numbers, DYAR (a counting stat that measures total value) and DVOA (a rate stat that measures per-play value). (These stats are explained more here).

Rodgers is on pace to finish 2011 with 2,764 DYAR. That would be the second-highest figure in our database, behind Tom Brady's 2,788 in 2007. That's partly because Brady threw a league-record 50 touchdowns that season, but also because he finished with 606 passing plays (including sacks and defensive pass interference penalties, but not including spikes to stop the clock). Rodgers is on pace for "only" 48 touchdowns and 570 passing plays. His DVOA, however, stands at 62.2%. That would pass Peyton Manning in 2004 (60.6%) for the best rate on record.

TOP 10 PASSING DYAR (RODGERS PRO-RATED) Player Team Year DYAR Tom Brady NE 2007 2788 Aaron Rodgers GB 2011 2764 Peyton Manning IND 2004 2493 Peyton Manning IND 2006 2308 Tom Brady NE 2009 2170 Tom Brady NE 2010 2137 Peyton Manning IND 2009 1936 D.Culpepper MIN 2004 1929 Drew Brees NO 2008 1921 Philip Rivers SD 2009 1915

TOP 10 PASSING DVOA (MIN. 400 PASSES) Player Team Year DVOA Aaron Rodgers GB 2011 62.2% Peyton Manning IND 2004 60.6% Tom Brady NE 2007 56.9% Tom Brady NE 2010 53.3% Peyton Manning IND 2006 51.0% Philip Rivers SD 2009 45.9% Tom Brady NE 2009 44.2% Randall Cunningham MIN 1998 42.9% Drew Brees NO 2009 41.0% Peyton Manning IND 2007 40.6%

That record, though, goes back only to 1992, the first year for which we have complete play-by-play data. How can we compare Rodgers to great passers of the past? In our first book, Pro Football Prospectus 2005, FO head cheese Aaron Schatz used a variety of individual and team data to evaluate historical seasons, using both passing and rushing numbers, and adjusting for the season in question and the team's schedule to estimate a quarterback's "points above average." At the time, the record for best overall season was held by Bert Jones of the Baltimore Colts in 1976. Since then, though, Jones has been passed by Brady, and he's likely to be passed again by Rodgers. Here's the updated list of top quarterback seasons since 1960, using our "points above average" formula:

TOP 10 QUARTERBACK SEASONS (RODGERS PRO-RATED) Player Year PAA Aaron Rodgers 2011 200.2 Tom Brady 2007 163.2 Bert Jones 1976 159.0 Peyton Manning 2004 150.4 Dan Marino 1984 149.8 Daunte Culpepper 2004 148.9 Steve Young 1992 143.4 Ken Anderson 1975 143.4 Ken Stabler 1976 142.5 Ken Anderson 1974 140.0

Rodgers isn't just on pace to be the best since 1960 here, he's blowing away the field. The gap between Rodgers and Brady in 2007 is more than half-again a big as the gap between Brady and the number ten passer, Ken Anderson in 1974.

There's still plenty of time for a mini-slump that would knock Rodgers off the top of the pile. But if he can stay healthy, and keep playing like he has, he'll have enjoyed the best season for a quarterback in league history.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Matt Moore MIA 17/23 244 3 0 176 175 1 Huh? What? The guy who Carolina ran out of town, the guy who came into the game with one touchdown and four interceptions, was the most valuable quarterback of the week? Yes, it's true. Moore completed 17-of-23 passes for 244 yards (10.6 per attempt) with three touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions against Kansas City. He had a streaky game, starting off 3-of-6 for 41 yards. He then went 7-of-7 for 126 yards, with each throw picking up a first down or touchdown. Then he went 1-of-4 for 5 yards before finishing four more first downs or touchdowns in his last six throws. 2. Aaron Rodgers GB 21/26 247 4 0 164 157 7 Rodgers has now been one of the top four quarterbacks seven times in nine weeks this season — and in one of the other weeks, the Packers had a bye. 3. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 20/37 330 1 1 153 147 6 There is a reason we use opponent adjustments in our system. Roethlisberger's numbers (20-of-37, 330 yards, one touchdown, one sack, one interception) look pretty pedestrian, but remember that he was playing the Baltimore Ravens, who through nine weeks have been far and away the league's best defense against the pass. Roethlisberger was just the third quarterback this year to complete 54 percent of his passes against the Ravens, and the first to average 8.9 yards per pass. Without opponent adjustments, Roethlisberger would have ranked 14th among quarterbacks this week. With them, he ranks third. 4. Tony Romo DAL 19/31 282 2 0 142 137 5 Romo on deep passes (more than 15 yards downfield): 5-of-7 passing, 148 yards, one touchdown, 101 DYAR. 5. Josh Freeman TB 27/37 281 1 0 128 133 -5 Freeman had a league-high 10 failed completions this week. He also led the league in Week 7, and only Matt Hasselbeck has thrown more on the season. He started off cold on Sunday, with one first down in his first 13 dropback, but finished strong — his final 11 throws resulted in 10 completions and a DPI, with nine successful completions, for a total of 106 yards. 6. Andy Dalton CIN 22/39 217 3 0 120 118 2 Dalton was not the best third-down quarterback this week, but he was close: 6-of-12, six first downs (including three touchdowns), 77 yards, 86 DYAR. Gee, I wonder who might have been better on third downs? 7. Joe Flacco BAL 28/47 300 1 0 114 114 0 Flacco was downright absurd on third/fourth downs: 20 dropbacks, 15 completions (every one a conversion) for 197 yards, 136 DYAR. He'd score even higher, but he did have a sack/fumble on third down that was worth -37 DYAR by itself. 8. Mark Sanchez NYJ 20/28 230 1 1 111 111 0 Credit where it's due: Sanchez was great at the end of this game. His last 10 throws resulted in nine first downs, including a touchdown, for 152 yards and 139 DYAR. His end zone interception in the first quarter, though, was a -55 DYAR play. 9. Matt Hasselbeck TEN 24/41 275 2 0 105 112 -7 The Titans' defense shouldn't take all the blame for blowing a 17-7 halftime lead. Hasselbeck's third quarter — 2-of-6 passing, plus a sack, -1 net yard, -32 DYAR — played a big part in letting the Bengals back into the game. 10. Jay Cutler CHI 18/32 210 2 0 102 102 0 11. Drew Brees NO 27/35 258 2 1 97 88 9 The set-up man: Brees had a league-high 10 completions that counted as successful plays without picking up first downs. He leads the league with 65 such plays this year. Tom Brady is second with 51. 12. Alex Smith SF 17/24 200 1 0 91 90 1 When the new quarterback rankings come out today (unless the Monday night contest radically skews opponent adjustments), Smith will rank 13th in passing DVOA, 15th in DYAR. In his past 16 games, he's completing 62 percent of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, with 22 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 93.8 quarterback rating. Yes, he's a legitimate starting quarterback now. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Philip Rivers SD 27/46 385 4 3 80 80 0 Rivers' day in a nutshell: If we remove all quarterbacks' interceptions, Rivers would have ranked second behind Ben Roethlisberger with 218 DYAR. If we considered only interceptions, he would have been dead last with -139 DYAR. 14. Eli Manning NYG 20/39 250 2 1 76 72 5 Eli's fourth quarter: 8-of-13 for 93 yards, seven first downs (including two touchdowns), plus two DPI calls for 55 total yards, 113 DYAR. 15. Michael Vick PHI 21/38 213 0 1 71 57 15 16. John Beck WAS 30/46 254 1 1 70 79 -9 Go ahead and put that safety in the box against Beck. You won't need any help covering deep balls. Beck threw only three deep passes against San Francisco, with no completions, one interception, and -54 DYAR. 17. Matt Ryan ATL 14/24 275 3 1 41 44 -4 Ryan's average completion came 11.93 yards downfield, a few decimal points behind Carson Palmer (11.95) for the most of any quarterback this week. His average completion also gained 7.7 YAC; nobody else averaged more than 7.0. He would rank higher except A) he completed just 58 percent of his passes, and B) it was just the Colts. (Before opponent adjustments, he had 90 total YAR. 18. Tom Brady NE 28/49 340 2 2 37 33 4 Brady was most effective throwing down the middle against the Giants: 12 completions for 172 yards and eight first downs (including a touchdown) in only 15 passes, for a league-high 129 DYAR. 19. Carson Palmer OAK 19/35 332 3 3 32 33 -1 I'm just going to quote FO writer Rob Weintraub's Twitter account here: "Carson Palmer--6 picks in 6 quarters. Andy Dalton--7 picks in 8 games." 20. Tim Tebow DEN 10/21 124 2 0 25 9 16 Tebow's rushing numbers: 11 carries (only three listed as scrambles), 118 yards, five 10-yard plays, four first downs. He only had four first downs passing, although two of those were touchdowns. 21. John Skelton ARI 21/35 222 1 0 19 7 11 Skelton missed his first five passes of the fourth quarter. He then hit seven of his next eight throws for 64, but just three first downs. He also scrambled for three first downs in the fourth, but he finished up going incompletion, sack/fumble (recovered), 8-yard gain on third-and-26 to send it into overtime. Patrick Peterson took care of things from there. (By the way, did you know Peterson has three punt return touchdowns in his first eight games? The single-season record is four, held by several people.) 22. Tarvaris Jackson SEA 17/30 221 0 3 4 4 0 Jackson's third interception came on a Hail Mary at the end of the game. That doesn't count as a turnover in his DYAR. His other two interceptions came on his last throw of the third quarter and his first throw of the fourth. Those turnovers do count. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 15/31 191 1 2 3 3 1 Fitzpatrick's first half: 4-of-12 for 24 yards, one first down, two interceptions, -114 DYAR. 24. Sam Bradford STL 23/36 255 0 1 -3 -3 0 Bradford's average incompletion this year has come 12.0 yards downfield. On Sunday, it was a whopping 21.6 yards downfield. Nobody else even hit 15 yards on their incompletions. Of course, those passes were still incomplete, so it doesn't really matter where they landed. 25. Matt Schaub HOU 14/23 119 0 1 -3 -11 8 Midway through the second quarter, Schaub was 10-of-12 for 90 yards and 90 DYAR. After that, he went 4-of-11 for 29 yards with an interception and -101 DYAR. 26. Colt McCoy CLE 14/22 146 1 1 -4 7 -11 By the time McCoy threw his first pass Sunday, the Browns were down 14-0. He didn't get a first down until the middle of the second quarter, when they were down 21-3. He didn't get a 20-yard play until the fourth quarter, when they were down 30-6. He started off deep in a hole, and then he dug himself deeper. 27. Matt Cassel KC 20/39 253 0 0 -27 -34 6 Cassel's second quarter: 4-of-7 passing, 64 yards, four sacks, plus a 12-yard DPI penalty, -11 DYAR. 28. Curtis Painter IND 13/27 98 0 1 -76 -71 -5 Painter completed less than half his passes against Atlanta, for fewer than eight yards per reception. Five of his 13 completions gained 3 yards or less. In one stretch he went 0-for-6 with an interception. In his last eight dropbacks, he went 4-of-7 with a sack for 2 net yards. That is why he was benched for Dan Orlovsky, a player best known for accidentally running out the back of the end zone for a safety while playing for Detroit, who had not thrown a pass in a game since 2008.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Reggie Bush MIA 92 1 50 0 58 32 26 Huh? What? The guy who New Orleans ran out of town, the guy who came into the game with one touchdown and three fumbles, was the most valuable running back of the week? Yes, it's true. Bush had three runs for 10 or more yards in only 13 carries, and gained at least two yards on every carry, but he did most of his damage as a receiver. He caught each of the three passes thrown his way, including gains of 18 and 27 yards. 2. Willis McGahee DEN 163 2 0 0 55 55 0 McGahee was stopped for no gain just once. He had seven total first downs, including two touchdowns, and four runs of 10 yards or more. 3. Ben Tate HOU 115 1 0 0 51 55 -5 Tate gained at least one yard on every carry, and four of his 12 carries gained 10 yards or more, including a pair of 20-yarders. He also picked up a first down on second-and-2. 4. Marshawn Lynch SEA 135 1 8 0 49 48 0 Lynch had three runs for 10 or more yards, and was stuffed for no gain or a loss just three times. He's also rewarded for his nine successful runs in 23 carries, especially his touchdown run on second-and-goal from the 4. 5. Michael Bush OAK 96 0 33 1 41 14 27 Bush had three runs for 10 or more yards, and was stuffed for no gain or a loss just twice. His two catches were a 22-yard gain on second-and-11 and an 11-yard touchdown on third-and-7.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Chris Ogbonnaya CLE 28 0 13 0 -28 -31 3 Ognonnaya had as many fumbles (one) as he did first downs. He carried the ball 13 times against Houston, and gained one yard or less on six of those carries. He did catch the only pass thrown his way, for a 13-yard gain - but it came on third-and-15, so who cares?

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Vincent Jackson SD 7 12 141 20.1 3 69 Huh? What? The guy who tried to run himself out of town, the guy who had been below replacement level three straight weeks and the least valuable receiver in the league in Week 7, was the most valuable receiver of the week? Yes, it's true. Jackson's raw numbers (seven receptions for 141 yards and three touchdowns) are impressive on their own, but the play-by-play data makes him look even better. His first five targets were all complete, each gaining a first down or touchdown, for 107 yards. His next two passes were incomplete, but the two targets after that were both touchdowns, to pull the Chargers within 14 and then within 7 points. Unfortunately, Jackson was unable to get the last touchdown San Diego needed - down one score, Jackson's last three targets were all incomplete. (He was also the target on the game-ending interception, but in our system the blame for that goes to Rivers, not Jackson.) 2. A.J. Green CIN 7 7 83 11.9 0 68 Green finished with seven catches in seven targets for 83 yards. Four of his catches produced first downs. The others were 9- and 6-yard gains on first-and-10, and a 7-yard gain on first-and-goal at the eight. He also drew a 45-yard pass interference flag. For the season, he's ranked eighth among wide receivers in total value, which is outstanding for a rookie. 3. Julio Jones ATL 3 4 131 43.7 2 65 Jones' two touchdowns totaled 130 yards and 63 DYAR. 4. Wes Welker NE 9 10 136 15.1 0 60 Eight of Welker's catches were successful, including five first downs and four 20-yard plays. His "failed" reception was a 4-yard gain on first-and-10. 5. Jordy Nelson GB 5 6 105 21.0 1 59 Each of Nelson's five catches gained successful yardage, especially his 64-yarder in the fourth quarter. In addition to the numbers listed above, he also drew a pass interference call for a 21-yard gain in the first quarter.