The Case For Matthew Stafford as a Top 5 QB

Consistency. Volume. Efficiency. These are three words that perfectly describe , and, along with improvement in decision-making, they will make him a top 5 QB.

Consistency

Stafford has it in surplus. Here are some of his statistics from the past three years:

Year: Attempts: Yards: Touchdowns: 2014 602 4257 22 2015 592 4262 32 2016 594 4327 24 Average: 596 4282 26

See the difference? Yeah, me neither.

Even his touchdowns, the least predictable stat for a QB, have not varied by more than 25% above or below his average.

Enough said.

Volume

Stafford has it. Here are the 10 QBs with the most pass attempts over the past 3 years:

Rank: Name: Attempts: 1 1959 2 1817 3 1809 4 Matthew Stafford 1788 5 1776 6 1732 7 1706 8 1702 9 1586 10 1481

Over the past 3 years only Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers have thrown more passes than Stafford. This remarkable volume already gives him a solid floor.

Stafford has also averaged about 41 carries over the past 3 years, which allows for some fairly good rushing volume as well. There have been no coaching changes, so the game plan can be expected to be about the same as in the past (meaning we can expect him to repeat with about that many carries).

Efficiency

Stafford will have it. Stafford has improved his yards per attempt each of the past 3 years, even while losing Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson during that time.

The evidence suggests that the Joneses ( and ) will make big strides next year.

Marvin has been touted by the Lions as able to do anything, whether he be called on to run deep or intermediate routes or short routes. His 2016 was also very good, as he almost hit 1000 yards and 5 TDs. When he has at least 75 receiving yards, Stafford sees a 19% increase in his yards per attempt. When throwing to Jones, Stafford also has a 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt, which is more than noted combinations such as Brady/Edelman and Luck/Hilton, and the same as Rodgers/Nelson.

TJ is a possession slot receiver who runs very crisp routes and plays fast. His role will likely increase next year as Anquan Boldin will probably retire, as well as he continues to mature as a player (he is only in his third year). Matthew Stafford chose TJ as his breakout player for the Lions for next year, and coach Jim Caldwell has said that he believes in Jones’ ability to step up to a larger role. A good comparison is Santonio Holmes, the former Steelers star receiver who played a similar role and had a similar style of play.

It has also been hinted at that Detroit may look to upgrade at receiver in the draft or free agency.

Decision-making

Stafford will improve his decision making this year because he is a younger quarterback (28 is still young for a quarterback) and because it has been improving the last 4 years, which can be quantified by his interception rate decreasing from almost 3% to just over 1.6% over that span. This has resulted in Stafford nearly cutting his interceptions in half (19 to 10).

Making better decisions can also be quantified through rushing efficiency, as making better decisions on when to run will result in a higher yards per carry (YPC) average. Stafford’s YPC has improved continuously over the past 3 years, from 2.2 to 3.6 to 5.6. This 5.6 YPC ranked 4th best among quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts last year, better than big names like Russell Wilson, , and . We can reasonably project for Stafford to continue to have a stellar YPC at 5.3 next year, which would remain one of the top 5 at his position.

I also expect his rushing touchdowns to stay just about the same at 2, as they have not changed significantly since 2012.

What does all of this mean?

This year, I predict that Matthew Stafford will make the jump to be a top 5 QB because I expect him to improve his yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and yards per carry and keep his rushing touchdowns the same.

According to other early rankings, Matthew Stafford is put around the QB12 to QB14 range. I believe that he will finish the season around QB5 to QB7. However, if his rushing touchdowns or yards per attempt increase more that I projected them to (which is very possible), he would finish around QB4 to QB5.

His current ADP is around the 9th-10th round, and a surefire top 10 quarterback with top 5 upside is a great steal for that price.

Make sure Matthew Stafford is on your radar in the 9th and 10th rounds of your draft!

Sources:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm

http://rotoviz.com/game-splits/

http://rotoviz.com/aya-app/

http://fftoolbox.scout.com/football/adp.cfm