S INCE BRITAIN voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June 2016, Leavers have been gloating. Despite the Remain camp’s dire predictions, the economy seemed to trundle on well enough. But the crowing is dying down. Figures released on August 9th showed that Britain’s GDP shrank in the second quarter. And a growing body of research suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty is doing subtle but serious economic damage.

A paper published early this year by Meredith Crowley, Oliver Exton and Lu Han of the University of Cambridge reckons that uncertainty over trade policy has dented export prospects. Had the vote not taken place, 5% more firms would have exported new products to the EU in 2016 alone.

After the referendum economists from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University set up the “Decision-maker panel”, a survey that regularly polls executives across the country’s industries and regions. In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms, representing 14% of private-sector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.