A serious coronavirus outbreak in the UK is "almost certain" with "some deaths" expected, England's chief medical officer has told Sky News.

Professor Chris Whitty, who has been helping to coordinate the government's planning for a potential COVID-19 epidemic, highlighted a six-week window in which the UK's action could be stepped up.

It comes as two new coronavirus cases were confirmed in Scotland - taking the UK's total to 53.

The patients were from the Grampian and Ayrshire areas. One had travelled to northern Italy and the other had had contact with a person who was known to have already tested positive for the disease.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced statutory sick pay would be available to workers staying at home with possible coronavirus infections from the first day of illness.


He said payments would be moved forward from the fourth day of sickness under current rules - under emergency legislation to stem the spread of the disease.

"Nobody should be penalised for doing the right thing," he said.

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Prof Whitty told Sky News' Kay Burley@Breakfast show that Britons "may well" be required to take "more extreme action" in the longer term, but - for the moment - "we do not think people need to change what they're doing in terms of their normal behaviour".

"With all epidemics, what happens is they start off very slowly and then they gradually gather momentum and then they suddenly go up relatively fast," Prof Whitty said.

The government and health officials are currently attempting to contain the spread of coronavirus and hope to push the worst of an outbreak into the summer months, when there is less pressure on NHS services.

Ministers are considering bringing retired doctors back to work in the event of an epidemic. Several medical staff have in recent weeks tested positive for the virus.

A spokesman for the North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust said a member of hospital staff had tested "presumptive positive for COVID-19 following a trip to northern Italy" and had "sensibly self-isolated and did not come into work" on their return.

Image: Professor Chris Whitty is helping to coordinate the government's response

Prof Whitty highlighted a six-week window before the spread of coronavirus could accelerate.

"If we get established transmission in the UK, which I think at this time is more likely than not, then there will be a number of weeks - about six weeks - until we start to see a significant amount of transmission in the UK," he said.

"The key thing is we will need to do a variety of interventions, but we do not want to do them too early because we'll then need to sustain them through the epidemic.

"So what we're trying to do is plan to do them at exactly the right point to minimise social disruption but still manage to reduce the impact of this epidemic."

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With coronavirus spreading across many countries, including in Europe, it is "fairly unlikely" the UK will escape a serious outbreak, Prof Whitty said.

He added: "It is almost certain there will be more cases in the UK, probably a lot more cases... and we would expect some deaths."

Based on current data, there is a death rate of about 1% among all those who are infected with coronavirus, although this rate is lower among younger age groups and higher among the elderly.

But Prof Whitty stressed the "great majority" of elderly people or those with pre-existing health conditions - the two groups considered most at-risk - would not die if infected with coronavirus.

He also said the government is not advising people to wear face masks if they do not have the virus, as it does not significantly reduce the risk of being infected.

The "most important" thing is to wash your hands for at least 20 seconds with hot water and soap, he added.

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Meanwhile, a spokesman for the health and social care system in Manchester said a patient who was admitted to Wythenshawe Hospital had tested positive for the virus, while Cumbria City Council said two residents of Carlisle who had returned from a trip to northern Italy were also confirmed cases.

The government will formally register COVID-19 as a "notifiable" disease, which will help companies claim for compensation through insurance policies if they are affected by the virus.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: "We want to ensure any steps taken to protect the public during the COVID-19 outbreak are proportionate and do not come at an unnecessary social or economic cost.

"To mitigate the impact on businesses, we will register COVID19 as a notifiable disease.

"This will help companies seek compensation through their insurance policies in the event of any cancellations they may have to make as a result of the spread of the virus."

Other global developments:

Iran's health ministry says there have been 586 new infections since Tuesday, and the number of coronavirus deaths has risen to 92 amid 2,922 confirmed COVID-19 cases

Italy says the number of deaths in the country has risen to 80 and it is considering closing all schools and universities from tomorrow until mid-March

World Health Organisation (WHO) director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says about 3.4% of those diagnosed with COVID-19 have died

The World Bank announces an initial $12bn (£9.3bn) to assist countries grappling with the health and economic impacts of the outbreak

The London Book Fair due to take place from 10 to 12 March has been cancelled

Indian media reports 16 Italian citizens have tested positive for COVID-19 in India

Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical Co says it is developing a drug for high-risk patients infected with the disease

Tajikistan shuts its borders to nationals of 35 countries including Britain, China, Japan, Iran and the US

France and Switzerland's health ministers have asked citizens to consider dropping the everyday greeting of kissing each other on the cheek

There are than 93,450 confirmed and suspected cases globally, according to Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking the outbreak. It says there have been more than 3,190 deaths

Virus Outbreak: Global Emergency - Watch a special Sky News programme on coronavirus at 6pm weekdays