All locomotive production, except for prototypes, will be transferred to Fort Worth.

We all saw this coming.

And yet the community seemed surprised when GE Transportation announced Thursday morning that it plans to end locomotive production in Erie by the end of 2018 and cut up to 575 union jobs.

From elected leaders to workers, the news was a gut punch.

But for GE Transportation employee Matt Shioleno, who is 53 and makes coils for locomotives, there was just shock.

"I'm stunned" he said as he left the plant Thursday. "But I kind of saw it coming."

That's the thing about the announcement — there were a lot of signs to indicate this moment was coming, if not imminent.

We saw it when GE Transportation built the plant in Fort Worth, Texas, in 2011.

We saw it when the company shifted its headquarters from Lawrence Park to Chicago in 2012.

We saw it as the company gradually developed other plants around the globe, most recently announcing plans for a plant in India.

And we heard it in the earnings call a week ago when General Electric. Co. officials talked about a persistently soft locomotive market that is expected to stretch well into 2018.

But seeing it coming and having it happen are different things.

And it happened in Erie Thursday.

As a result, sometime in the next 18 months, a proud century-long tradition of building locomotives in Erie will come to an end.

Company officials delivered the news in a series of meetings Thursday to the plant's roughly 2,500 employees.

The broad sweep of the plan involves transferring the production of locomotives and locomotive kits to the company's plant in Fort Worth, Texas, and eliminating 575 positions in Erie.

At the conclusion, the Lawrence Park plant will be the company's center for design, engineering, prototype development and component manufacturing.

There will still be about 2,000 GE employees in Erie after this, said Richard Simpson, vice president of GE Transportation's global supply chain. This will still be the company's largest plant.

The company remains committed to Erie, he said.

Simpson explained that the reduced demand for locomotives in North America and increased competition in the international markets prompted the decision. The company needs to change to adjust to the industry's new realities.

More than 4,000 locomotives remain idled across North America. Orders are way down, even from just a few years ago. Internationally, countries increasingly want products like locomotives made inside their borders.

These factors all made Erie stand out.

"The Erie location is not our most competitive location and we have to place work in our most competitive locations," Simpson said. "While we have made progress in Erie, it still isn't as competitive."

Thursday's announcement came about 18 months after GE Transportation reduced its Erie workforce by 1,500 jobs through layoffs and retirements because of slow business. The plant, which at one time employed more than 15,000 workers, would have around 2,000 remaining after the transfer, including about 900 in manufacturing, Simpson said.

About 225 employees at the Fort Worth plant would be recalled to work if the plan goes into effect, and as many as 200 other jobs would be created at GE suppliers around the country, Simpson said.

GE officials talked Thursday with representatives of Local 506 of the United Electrical, Radio and Machine Workers of America — the union that represents most of the affected employees.

The union has the right over the next 60 days to enter into "decision bargaining" over the jobs. It's a negotiating window triggered under UE's contract when the company plans to transfer work elsewhere.

So, there's a chance some of the jobs could be saved.

But Simpson declined to say whether negotiations could prevent the transfer of work.

"Our focus is on the next 60 days," Simpson said. "I'm not going to tell you that negotiations can't have any impact, but that impact will be determined after negotiations."

UE 506 President Scott Slawson said the union will decide in the next 10 days whether to begin decision bargaining.

"In the past, GE has asked for way more than they know the membership is willing to give and there is never any promise to keep the work," Slawson said. "It's a case of falling on your sword."

The union president also argued that it's unfair to compare costs at the Lawrence Park plant with costs at other GE Transportation facilities due to its size and the fact that it contains engineering, and test and development departments.

"We have the second-most efficient plant after Cleveland and we are far bigger than Cleveland," Slawson said. "Even if we would take the concessions and take $15 an hour, the next thing GE would do is go to Fort Worth and tell them they are making too much."

Slawson also said the actual number of jobs lost could reach 1,000, including nonunion and members of its sister union UE 618, which represents clerical workers at the Lawrence Park plant.

A company spokeswoman said no salaried employees would be impacted at this time.

GE Transportation employees had little to say about the announcement as they left the plant Thursday afternoon. They said they were notified during meetings held at 9:30 a.m.

"I'm retiring soon," said Ed Hermann, 59, who works in locomotive testing. "I feel bad for the younger people."

Mayor Joe Sinnott, at a Thursday morning news conference initially planned for something else, said he was disappointed by GE's news, and said he received no advance notice of the pending job reductions.

"Before 8:30 (a.m.) we had no prior knowledge or information that there was anything out of the ordinary going on at GE," Sinnott said. "Our police department got a call from the Lawrence Park Police Department asking for some folks to come and be out there for mutual aid if it was necessary. Because they had received a contact from GE that there was going to be an announcement.

"Our information was very sketchy. It ranged from a layoff to a closing of the plant," Sinnott said.

Erie County Executive Kathy Dahlkemper said she is deeply concerned about the potential job loss and vowed to help workers access needed resources.

"My administration also will continue to work with other community organizations to market our talented and capable workforce — including displaced GE workers — to attract new manufacturers to our region," Dahlkemper said in a statement.

A job reduction as significant as what GE Transportation plans will have a ripple effect on the region's economy, said Ken Louie, a professor of economics at Penn State Behrend and director of the Economic Institute of Erie.

"The affected employees will cut their spending and other businesses, such as retailers, may feel the pinch," Louie said. "But Erie has seen major setbacks like this before and has bounced back."

Simpson said he hopes that half of the 575 local job cuts will be achieved through retirement, early retirement and "enhanced retirement," which could include retirement incentives.

Many GE workers at the Lawrence Park plant have already reached retirement age and might be receptive to a retirement offer, Simpson said.

"These employees would also be eligible for preferential employee replacement, retraining and extended health insurance," Simpson said. "There is a significant package available for any impacted employee."

GE Transportation has no plans to close the Lawrence Park plant, CEO Jamie Miller told employees in a letter distributed Thursday.

"Should the decision be to move forward after decision bargaining, our intent is to transform our Erie campus to focus on design, engineering, prototype development, and components production," Miller said in the letter. "Erie has been a part of GE for more than 100 years, continually evolving to meet market challenges. In fact, even following this proposed transformation, Erie would remain our largest location with approximately 2,000 hourly and salaried employees. The site will be a critical part of GE Transportation for years to come and this transformation will help write the next chapter."

Manufacturing will also continue for alternators, grid blowers, UX controls and spare parts, Simpson said.

"We have been in Erie for more than 100 years and we plan on being there for 100 more," Simpson said. "It remains GE Transportation's largest plant."

Staff writer Kevin Flowers contributed to this story.

David Bruce can be reached at 870-1736 or by email. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/ETNbruce.