Guess My Bitcoin Private Key

A Dance With Infinity — Post #13

Hold up. It’s possible someone could guess a private key? Yes. A rare event it would be, but it’s technically possible.

My private key is 256 bits (a bit is a 1 or 0) so the odds of correctly guessing it is the same as guessing a coin toss 256 times in a row. Easy right? Let’s put these odds into context.

The odds of guessing 1 coin toss is…

1:2

There are 1 of 2 outcomes. Heads or Tails. You have a 50% chance of being correct.

The odds of guessing 2 correct coin tosses (in a row) are…

1:4

There are 1 of 4 outcomes. HH, TT, HT, or TH. There is a 25% chance you will correctly guess a coin toss twice.

The odds of guessing 3 correct coin tosses are…

1:8

There are 1 of 8 outcomes. HHH, HHT, HTT, THT, HTH, THH, TTH, TTT. There is a 12.5% chance you will guess a coin toss three times.

Odds of 4 correct guesses are…

1:16

Assuming the pattern continues in a similar manner the odds will double every time, and be half as likely to occur.

5 guesses…

1:32

Which is also the odds of guessing the correct number in roulette (approximately)

6 …

1:64

The odds of randomly guessing the 1st character in my private key.

1:128

1:256

1:516

1:1,024

1:2,048

1:4,096

1:8,192

1:16,384

The odds of correctly guessing a person’s 3 initials.

1:32,768

1:65,536

1:131,072

1:262,144



1:524,288

The odds of randomly being dealt a royal flush = 649,740

1:1,048,576



1:2,097,152



1:4,194,304



1:8,388,608



1:16,777,216

The odds of correctly guessing a random license plate in 1 state (approximately)

1:33,554,432



1:67,108,864



1:134,217,728



1:268,435,456

The odds of winning the powerball = 1: 292,201,338

1:536,870,912



1:1,073,741,824



1:2,147,483,648



1:4,294,967,296



1:8,589,934,592



1:17,179,869,184



1:34,359,738,368



1:68,719,476,736



1:137,438,953,472



1:274,877,906,944

1:549,755,813,888

1:1,099,511,627,776



1:2,199,023,255,552



1:4,398,046,511,104



1:8,796,093,022,208



1:17,592,186,044,416



1:35,184,372,088,832



1:70,368,744,177,664



1:140,737,488,355,328



1:281,474,976,710,656



1:562,949,953,421,312



1:1,125,899,906,842,620



1:2,251,799,813,685,250



1:4,503,599,627,370,500



1:9,007,199,254,740,990

The odds of randomly guessing my credit card number (approximately)

1:18,014,398,509,482,000



1:36,028,797,018,964,000



1:72,057,594,037,927,900



1:144,115,188,075,856,000



1:288,230,376,151,712,000



1:576,460,752,303,424,000



1:1,152,921,504,606,850,000



1:2,305,843,009,213,690,000



1:4,611,686,018,427,390,000



1:9,223,372,036,854,780,000

The odds of guessing a perfect NCAA basketball bracket

1:18,446,744,073,709,600,000



1:36,893,488,147,419,100,000



1:73,786,976,294,838,200,000



1:147,573,952,589,676,000,000



1:295,147,905,179,353,000,000



1:590,295,810,358,706,000,000



1:1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000

The odds of randomly guessing Bill Gate’s routing and account number (if he has a typical bank account). Also the estimated # of stars in the observable universe. (approximately)

1:2,361,183,241,434,820,000,000



1:4,722,366,482,869,650,000,000



1:9,444,732,965,739,290,000,000



1:18,889,465,931,478,600,000,000



1:37,778,931,862,957,200,000,000



1:75,557,863,725,914,300,000,000



1:151,115,727,451,829,000,000,000



1:302,231,454,903,657,000,000,000



1:604,462,909,807,315,000,000,000



1:1,208,925,819,614,630,000,000,000



1:2,417,851,639,229,260,000,000,000



1:4,835,703,278,458,520,000,000,000



1:9,671,406,556,917,030,000,000,000



1:19,342,813,113,834,100,000,000,000



1:38,685,626,227,668,100,000,000,000



1:77,371,252,455,336,300,000,000,000



1:154,742,504,910,673,000,000,000,000



1:309,485,009,821,345,000,000,000,000



1:618,970,019,642,690,000,000,000,000



1:1,237,940,039,285,380,000,000,000,000



1:2,475,880,078,570,760,000,000,000,000



1:4,951,760,157,141,520,000,000,000,000



1:9,903,520,314,283,040,000,000,000,000



1:19,807,040,628,566,100,000,000,000,000



1:39,614,081,257,132,200,000,000,000,000



1:79,228,162,514,264,300,000,000,000,000



1:158,456,325,028,529,000,000,000,000,000



1:316,912,650,057,057,000,000,000,000,000



1:633,825,300,114,115,000,000,000,000,000



1:1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000



1:2,535,301,200,456,460,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,070,602,400,912,920,000,000,000,000,000

1:10,141,204,801,825,800,000,000,000,000,000



1:20,282,409,603,651,700,000,000,000,000,000



1:40,564,819,207,303,300,000,000,000,000,000



1:81,129,638,414,606,700,000,000,000,000,000



1:162,259,276,829,213,000,000,000,000,000,000



1:324,518,553,658,427,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:649,037,107,316,854,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,298,074,214,633,710,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:2,596,148,429,267,410,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,192,296,858,534,830,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:10,384,593,717,069,700,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:20,769,187,434,139,300,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:41,538,374,868,278,600,000,000,000,000,000,000

The odds of guessing 115 coin tosses, in a row.

1:83,076,749,736,557,200,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:166,153,499,473,115,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:32,306,998,946,229,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:64,613,997,892,458,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,329,227,995,784,920,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:2,658,455,991,569,830,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,316,911,983,139,660,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:10,633,823,966,279,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:21,267,647,932,558,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:42,535,295,865,117,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:85,070,591,730,234,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:170,141,183,460,469,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:340,282,366,920,939,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:680,564,733,841,877,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,361,129,467,683,750,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:2,722,258,935,367,510,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,444,517,870,735,020,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:10,889,035,741,470,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:21,778,071,482,940,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:43,556,142,965,880,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:87,112,285,931,760,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:174,224,571,863,521,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:348,449,143,727,041,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:696,898,287,454,082,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:393,796,574,908,160,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:2,787,593,149,816,330,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,575,186,299,632,660,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:11,150,372,599,265,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:22,300,745,198,530,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:44,601,490,397,061,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:89,202,980,794,122,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:178,405,961,588,245,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:356,811,923,176,490,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:713,623,846,352,980,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:427,247,692,705,960,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:2,854,495,385,411,920,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,708,990,770,823,840,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:11,417,981,541,647,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:22,835,963,083,295,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:45,671,926,166,590,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:91,343,852,333,181,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:182,687,704,666,363,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:365,375,409,332,726,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:730,750,818,665,452,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,461,501,637,330,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The odds of you guessing my bitcoin address (which is public)

1:2,923,003,274,661,810,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,846,006,549,323,610,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:11,692,013,098,647,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:23,384,026,197,294,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:46,768,052,394,588,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:93,536,104,789,177,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Approximate # of atoms on earth. Guess which one I am thinking of right now? Point it out. The odds of correctly guessing that exact atom is the above ratio.

1:187,072,209,578,356,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:374,144,419,156,711,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:748,288,838,313,422,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,496,577,676,626,840,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:2,993,155,353,253,690,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:5,986,310,706,507,380,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:11,972,621,413,014,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:23,945,242,826,029,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:47,890,485,652,059,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:95,780,971,304,118,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:191,561,942,608,236,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:383,123,885,216,472,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:766,247,770,432,944,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,532,495,540,865,890,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:3,064,991,081,731,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:6,129,982,163,463,560,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:12,259,964,326,927,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:24,519,928,653,854,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:49,039,857,307,708,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:98,079,714,615,416,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:196,159,429,230,834,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:392,318,858,461,668,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:784,637,716,923,335,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,569,275,433,846,670,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:3,138,550,867,693,340,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:6,277,101,735,386,680,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:12,554,203,470,773,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:25,108,406,941,546,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:50,216,813,883,093,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:100,433,627,766,187,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:200,867,255,532,374,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:401,734,511,064,748,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:803,469,022,129,495,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,606,938,044,258,990,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:3,213,876,088,517,980,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:6,427,752,177,035,960,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:12,855,504,354,071,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:25,711,008,708,143,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:51,422,017,416,287,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:102,844,034,832,575,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:205,688,069,665,151,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:411,376,139,330,302,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:822,752,278,660,603,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The odds of guessing 209 coin tosses in a row

1:1,645,504,557,321,210,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:3,291,009,114,642,410,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:6,582,018,229,284,820,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:13,164,036,458,569,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:26,328,072,917,139,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:52,656,145,834,278,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:105,312,291,668,557,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:210,624,583,337,114,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:421,249,166,674,229,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:842,498,333,348,458,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,684,996,666,696,920,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:3,369,993,333,393,830,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:6,739,986,666,787,660,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:13,479,973,333,575,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:26,959,946,667,150,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:53,919,893,334,301,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:107,839,786,668,603,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The odds of shuffling a deck of cards and the cards end up in order (approximately)

1:215,679,573,337,205,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:431,359,146,674,410,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:862,718,293,348,821,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,725,436,586,697,640,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Approximate # of atoms in the Milky Way Galaxy. Which ATOM in the GALAXY am I thinking of right now? The odds of correctly guessing that ONE precise atom is above.

1:3,450,873,173,395,280,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:6,901,746,346,790,560,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:13,803,492,693,581,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:27,606,985,387,162,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:55,213,970,774,324,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:110,427,941,548,649,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:220,855,883,097,298,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:441,711,766,194,596,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:883,423,532,389,192,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,766,847,064,778,380,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:3,533,694,129,556,770,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:7,067,388,259,113,540,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:14,134,776,518,227,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:28,269,553,036,454,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:56,539,106,072,908,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:113,078,212,145,817,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:226,156,424,291,633,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:452,312,848,583,266,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:904,625,697,166,533,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:1,809,251,394,333,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:3,618,502,788,666,130,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:7,237,005,577,332,260,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:14,474,011,154,664,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:28,948,022,309,329,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:57,896,044,618,658,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

1:115,792,089,237,316,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The odds of guessing my entire private key.

If you happen to correctly guess my private key? Congratulations! All 0.005 BTC in the corresponding address is yours to keep!

Best of Luck.