Today

For now, a wet morning commute or school run for some, a band of persistent and heavy rain affecting the Scottish Borders and far north of England while further south across northern England, Wales, Midlands and the West Country there are frequent heavy showers from the word go. Elsewhere, a mostly dry and bright start to the day.

The band of cloud and persistent rain across the south of Scotland and far north of England will sink southwards across northern England during the day and tend to ease and become more showery. Further south sunny spells and heavy showers becoming more widespread across Wales, the Midlands, southern England and East Anglia, with some thunderstorms developing locally. As the showers or storms will be slow-moving, there is a risk of localised flooding thanks to already saturated ground and treacherous driving conditions from surface water. Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England by late afternoon will see drier, brighter but colder conditions feed down from the north, though a few showers will affect northern Scotland.

Mild in the south, temperatures reaching 17-19C across south Wales and southern England. Further north progressively cooler, 12-15C across north Wales, northern and eastern Engand, 9-12C at best across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Tonight

Any lingering showers across southern areas this evening will gradually clear away followed by clearing skies and cool northerly breeze spreading south across all parts overnight, a strong northerly wind down eastern coastal areas of England. A cold night as a result, with a temperatures widely in single figures, coldest across the north – where there could be frost developing locally.

Wednesday

So a cold and bright start for most parts, but staying dry and sunny for many through the day, which is good news after all the heavy rain and subsequent flooding risk over recent days. Still a few showers for northern Scotland and running down eastern coasts – where there will be a brisk northerly wind. A much cooler day for all, temperatures reaching 14C at best in London, 12-15C across the rest of England and Wales, 11-13C across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Thursday

Turning wet and windy across the west, as an intense depression which is ex-Hurricane Lorenzo spins northeast off the west coast of Ireland. Gale force southerly winds likely up through the Irish Sea and adjacent coasts, severe gales across Ireland and N. Ireland. Eastern areas of Britain breezy but mostly dry and bright or sunny until showery rain perhaps arrives in the evening.

Friday

A great deal of uncertainty for Friday, but the deep low remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo spinning to the west on Thursday looks to track east somewhere across Britain but weakening as it does, so a windy day, rain clearing the east first thing, followed by showers or longer spells of rain in places.