EXCLUSIVE

Lindsay Lohan is exactly one day away from having her probation revoked ... and the end game could be 245 days in the slammer ... TMZ has learned.

Law enforcement sources connected with her most recent case tell TMZ ... when Lindsay is arraigned Wednesday for allegedly lying to cops and reckless driving in connection with her car accident last June ... the judge will revoke her probation in the jewelry heist case and set a date for a hearing to formally decide if Lindsay violated the terms of her probation by breaking the law again.

We're told the hearing will be conducted at the same time Lindsay stands trial on the criminal charges. And get this -- even if Lindsay is found not guilty in the criminal case, the judge can still rule she violated her probation because the standard of proving a probation violation is significantly lower than proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

The stakes for Lindsay are high -- up to 8 months in jail, and that doesn't include jail time if she's convicted in the car accident case.