US president plays hardball with Congress by threatening to walk away from repealing Obamacare if the House fails to pass his healthcare bill

The Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City has been described as the biggest gamble of Donald Trump’s business career. In 1990, he relied on high-interest loans known as junk bonds to launch the casino-hotel complex. The gamble was a spectacular failure and, just over a year later, the Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy.

Now Trump is taking the biggest gamble of his short political career. This time he is dealing not with bankers and bondholders but politicians with all their calculations around ideology and electoral cycles. Friday is make-or-break day – and no one knows what will happen.

The US president has demanded a vote on healthcare legislation in the House. If it falls, he threatens, he will leave Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act intact and move on to other issues. This came after a tense day – the seventh anniversary of Obamacare – during which the vote was postponed when it became clear it would be scuppered by Republican rebels.

The president is betting that the rebels won’t dare drive all the way over the cliff. This would blow their chance to dismantle the signature policy achievement of the Obama presidency, leaving them facing the wrath of constituents and potential trouble at the ballot box. It would plunge the party into disarray.

Asked whether Republicans would be unified on Friday, Congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida told the Associated Press: “I sure hope so, or we’ll have the opportunity to watch a unified Democratic caucus impeach Donald Trump in two years when we lose the majority.”

But there is something else at stake – something that strikes at the very core of Trump’s identity, his unique selling point as a political player. This is the man who co-authored a book called The Art of the Deal. A senior Republican dubbed him “The Closer”. And on the campaign trail he declared: “If you can’t make a good deal with a politician then there’s something wrong with you.”

The haggling and horse trading over components of the American Health Care Act should be Trump’s forte. Two hours before the vote was delayed, his spokesman, Sean Spicer, had been assuring reporters that the president was on the phone to House members “well into the 11 o’clock hour” on Wednesday night and recruiting growing numbers to his cause, as if by sheer force of personality. “It’s going to pass, so that’s it,” Spicer insisted at the time.

Trump continued to cajole but it turned out he was no Master of the Senate. Just as the courts have knocked back his travel bans, so public protests, medical professionals and free-willed congressmen demonstrated the checks on presidential power. Conservatives could not stomach legislation that did not repeal all regulations in the Affordable Care Act, while moderates were alarmed by late additions that rolled back Medicaid and eliminated 10 so-called essential health benefits such as maternity care and emergency services.

Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker who steered Obamacare – the greatest expansion of healthcare coverage in more than a generation – over a much longer and careful period, told a press conference on Thursday: “Rookie’s error, Donald Trump. You may be a great negotiator; rookie’s error for bringing this up on a day you clearly are not ready.”

But as with so much else in the Trump presidency, his critics and supporters are likely to view the debacle through different prisms. Should he prevail in Friday’s vote, it will be portrayed as a famous victory snatched from the jaws of defeat with all the suspense of his reality TV show. The very troubles and tribulations of the week will be cited as evidence of how his heroic deal-making abilities can overcome any hurdle, even the rightwing House Freedom Caucus – though another battle will loom in the Senate.

And if he fails, Trump will have an alternative narrative ready. His do-or-die threat to House members nicely sets up a scenario where he can blame everything on them. “Look! I tried everything! I was reasonable! These guys have let you down.” Then, he presumably believes, Obamacare will self-destruct and he will be able to declare: “I told you so.”

Importantly this is against the backdrop of Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican party last year. He vanquished 16 senators, governors and other rivals in the primaries, running as an anti-establishment insurgent. His supporters often said they were sick of Republicans in Washington making promises that they failed to keep. Rejecting the healthcare bill will be taken as evidence of more of the same.

Trump, who has had a tortuous relationship with Republicans on Capitol Hill, will again be able to tell his raucous rallies that he is the victim of sinister forces conspiring against him. The fact that, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, 24 million Americans would lose insurance in a decade under the plan, while Medicaid, a programme for people on low incomes, would be slashed, will be conveniently ignored.

The president won’t have to clean up the political mess either. The White House has wisely ducked journalists’ attempts to brand the legislation “Trumpcare”. Instead it is House Speaker Paul Ryan who has given the Powerpoint presentations and become the potential fall guy for “Ryancare”.

With few major legislative achievements to his name, Ryan has invested huge political capital in this legislation. Some conservatives have expressed disappointment that, despite his wonk credentials and so much time, this was the best he could come up with. Should it go down in flames, Trump is unlikely to come riding to his rescue.

Instead, Ryan would be left to cope with a Republican party once again at war with itself. The wounds that were all too evident during the election season received a sticking plaster last November but never truly healed. And at the very moment it needs a unifying figure – the volatile occupant of the White House is only likely to sow even more division.