TRUMP vs Hillary (National Poll) YouGov/Economist 4/22-4/26 1561 RV.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/at0n2iwc04/econTabReport.pdf

Page 88. TRUMP 43% | Hillary 46% ( 1000 LV, Live Phone)





It looks Hillary takes the leads +3%. But actually nope. Because This Poll overweighted Democrats a little. and not enough republican Samples.

it was Democrats 39%(=610 RV/1561 RV), Republican 34%(=449 RV/1561 RV), Independent 32.1%(=502 RV/1561 RV) <- it doesn’t make sense at all. so I gonna convert it to realistic. something like

Democrats 38%, Republican 34%, Independent 28%. then,





But if I convert it realistic (to make it realistic)



1) as realistic Party Affiliation Ratio

It would be TRUMP 41.48% | Hillary 41.88% (About the details below)

(Considering Turnouts factor, Actually It could be TRUMP takes the leads 1~2% vs Hillary )





1. Page 88

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/at0n2iwc04/econTabReport.pdf



Republican: TRUMP 79% | Hillary 6%

Independent: TRUMP 40% | Hillary 31%

Democrats: TRUMP 9% | Hillary 82%





last 4 years, Party Affilation was changed(Republican: increased. Democrats: similar. especially during the primaries TRUMP brought millions new republicans) So Election 2016 Ratios would be

Republican 34% | Democrats 38% | Indenpendent 28%





Calculation)

1) TRUMP : 34%(REP) x 79% + 28%(independent) x 40%



+ 38%(DEM) x 9% = 41.48%

2) Hillary : 34%(REP) x 6% + 28%(independent) x 31%

+ 38%(DEM) x 82% = 41.88%