For the first time since 1993, Denmark is on track to become a net oil importer this year, as oil production in the Danish part of the North Sea will be lower than the country’s consumption, the Danish Energy Agency said on Thursday, revising down its oil production forecasts.

The new forecast by the agency is a change from last year’s assessment and forecasts, which had expected that Denmark would continue to be a net oil exporter for a number of years, the agency said.

Now, the country is expected to be a net oil exporter for a single year, in 2024, when oil production is forecast to exceed consumption due to expected start-up of new developments.

The Danish Energy Agency revised down its oil production forecast by 8 percent compared to last year’s forecast, mostly due to a downward revision of the resources, delays, and a “greater uncertainty regarding the development of several fields and discoveries.”

For this year, the agency expects Denmark’s oil production to average just 128,000 bpd, a figure 10 percent lower than last year’s 2018, mainly due to what is expected to be lower production from some of the larger oil fields.

Between 2018 and 2022, the oil production estimate was revised down by an average 14 percent, attributable again to lower production expected at some larger oil fields.

The outlook for Denmark’s natural gas exporter status is rosier. Denmark is expected to remain a net natural gas exporter until 2035, except for the years 2020 and 2021 when the Tyra field redevelopment—approved last year—will be underway, the Danish agency noted.

“The approval of the rebuilding of the facilities on the Tyra field implies that the uncertainty in this regard is less than before. However, great uncertainty remains with regard to the development of a number of projects hence contributing to the forecast being somewhat uncertain,” the agency said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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