We’re six episodes into Vendettas and while that may feel like a small amount, back in Season 21 (Rivals 1), after the sixth episode, they only had one male and female elimination left. Yet, here we are with twenty-two people still remaining in the game. However, there has been four daily challenges, excluding the season-opening purge, and three eliminations already. So I decided to rank the remaining challengers by the best chance to win the game.

Disclaimer: I know this season will only have one genderless winner, but for traditional purposes purposes, we will separate the girls and guys brackets to make the breakdown easier. Plus we don’t even know how the final will work yet.

And again, we are going to be focusing on who has the best chance to WIN

Guys Division:

11. Victor Arroyo

El Fit Vic has been killing the game from a physical perspective; he finished 1st in his heat on the Hashtag Vendettas mission and proved a great swimmer this past week. However, his social game has been awful, and Natalie pairing with Bananas doesn’t help one bit. He could be seeing an elimination next week as well.

10. LeRoy Garrett

He would be much higher on this list if it was “who is most likely to make the final”. Probably in the top three. The difference is to win you have to be motivated to do so and care about the game. LeRoy is sitting back and only serving comedic relief. Yes, he can bust heads in eliminations, but other than that, can he do more?

9. Brad Fiorenza

It’s never good to have the whole house against you. He has a Vendetta with Marie, whose in an alliance with three other girls. And the Big 3 (Zach, Bananas, and LeRoy) want to get him out ASAP. Brad will be fighting from the bottom this whole game, even though he has been one of the top physical competitors.

8. Shane Landrum

There are winners edits and there are “I’m paranoid and I’m fighting for my life” edits. Shane is getting the latter despite his impressive performances in the daily missions this season. While he plays a shady game that allows him to flip the house on its head one week, it leads to him putting his game in danger other weeks.

7. Nelson Thomas

If you’ve never watched the Challenge prior to this season, you might think Nelson is the worst competitor. So far, he hasn’t done anything special, which may play to his strengths. Nelson is good at eliminations and currently isn’t seen as a threat. He may come up on people later in the game if they have to see him in elimination.

6. Joss Mooney

He is very good looking, but what else do we know about him? He’s getting the Jenna Exes 2 edit.

5. Devin Walker

There’s a significantly different swagger to Devin this season. In seasons past, he came across douche-y and over-confident. While those are his best qualities, he has geared his focus on being the likable guy versus the guy getting camera time. He obviously anti-Bananas — just not shooting from the hip quite yet.

4. Kyle Christie

He plays the idiot role quite well and he might actually be one. However, everyone in the house “likes” Kyle, and he has assimilated himself into the veteran alliance seamlessly. The British females have been firecrackers, while the males have been chameleons.

3. Johnny Bananas

As a man who loves to play a low-key game, Bananas is showing his ass a little too much. By hooking up with Natalie and targeting Victor, he is not playing with his brain. There is a whole room of people who are playing against him. He has a big target on his back and one of his biggest allies (Zach) cannot be trusted.

2. Tony Raines

Something generally referred to in the Survivor world, is the winners’ edit. So far this season, Tony has got that edit. He is absolutely destroying the Challenges, and his biggest Vendettas are sick (Sylvia), huge targets (Brad), or sucking in the missions (Nelson). Plus, he’s allies with Bananas while Bananas remains the main target in the game. Tony is killing it.

1. Zach Nichols

Are you aware Zach is playing the game? Are you aware he has 18k in his bank account, is friends with Kailah, Cara, Nicole, Tony, LeRoy, and Bananas, and is nowhere near the main target in the game? Zach’s done really well for himself.

Girls Division:

11. Jemmye Carroll

I feel safe in saying Jemmye isn’t winning. If you have an argument against this, put it in my DM’s. It might entertain me.

10. Kayleigh Morris

She has been at the bottom of every single mission. Kayleigh has not done well at all this season. No chance. The best part about her game has been the guys she’s hangs around with.

9. Sylvia Elsrode

My biggest fear about Sylvia is, despite her big elimination win, her edit doesn’t imply that it will lead to bigger things. She is super sick and didn’t even compete in the most recent daily mission.

8. Marie Roda

Marie’s relevance level this season has been off the charts. She hooked up with Kyle the first night, had PizzaGate another week, and is a main suspect in NoteGate. What is obvious is that she has a giant target on her back, and will see an elimination soon.

7. Veronica Portillo

Do you see Veronica winning? She has gotten so little screen-time this season, and NoteGate only seems like a negative for her.

6. Kam Williams

Based on how much MTV has been displaying her on Challenge social media, you can tell Kam may have big things coming in her future. At the same time, she hasn’t done much since finishing at the top in the first two missions. Hopefully we get to see more from her soon.

5. Britni Thornton

NoteGate may be the best thing to happen to Britni’s game. It’s put the house in disarray over who’s trashing her behind her back. These notes have low-key given her a few weeks of safety. She is doing well in the missions this season, let’s see if she can continue to grow and succeed.

4. Kailah Casillas

Like Nelson, you would think Kailah is a bad competitor if you only watched this season. She was part of the winning team this past week and hopefully it gets the wheel rolling for her this season. Being friends with Tony, LeRoy, and Zach helps her game the most.

3. Natalie Negrotti

Easily the most shocking thing about this season is Natalie being good at daily missions. She is using Johnny Bananas to further her game. It’s fascinating to watch the Challenge poster boy being used by a rookie. Her relationship with Bananas will determine her game.

2. Nicole Zanatta

If she can figure out how to keep her tongue in her mouth, Nicole will have a guaranteed spot in the final. She is destroying the physical aspect of this game.

1. Cara Maria Sorbello

Wanna know how much money Cara has in the bank? It’s 0 dollars. Does any girl want to face her 1 on 1? Probably not. She’s still somehow the most well-rounded girl in the cast and is aligned with the best people in the game. Cara is set up well.