Republican nominee Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House in November just went up, according to a Tuesday update at statistics site 538.

[dcquiz] Trump’s chances of winning rose to 41.1 percent, up from 29.9 percent only ten days ago. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton still carried greater odds at 58.9 percent, but is on a downward trend. Clinton had a 70 percent chance of winning on Sept. 10.

Trump briefly flirted with the lead in Nate Silver’s analysis during the final days of July. Trump carried a 50.1 percent chance of winning, and Clinton had a close 49 percent chance of winning.

538 still thinks Clinton would win if the election were held today. The site’s “now-cast” gives Clinton a 58.8 percent chance of winning today, compared to Trump’s 41.2 percent.

Trump overturned a large Clinton lead earlier in September, and continues to gain in the polls. Clinton still leads with the Real Clear average by 1.3 percentage points, but Trump earned a five-point lead in the latest LA Times daily tracking poll.

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