Outlook: Iowa State ended the season with one of the most erratic stretches in recent memory, leaving the Weave completely baffled as to what the Cyclones would do next. That included losing five of their final six (and six of eight) regular season games, including thrice at Hilton Coliseum, and whispers we heard from the program were that the players’ chemistry had experienced some major fissures due to infighting and unhappiness with roles. So naturally, the ‘Clones went to Kansas City and ripped off three straight wins, capped by a thorough strangling of Kansas in the title game in which Iowa State led by nine or more for the entirety of the second half. They had figured it out, right? Of course not! Instead, they fell to a less talented Ohio State team in Round 1, frustrated by a well-coached defensive unit.

So, where does that leave them this year?

Unclear. The professional defections of Lindell Wigginton and Talen Horton-Tucker, along with the graduation of Marial Shayok, leaves Iowa State without its three leading scorers, and the resulting fallout of shot distribution will be worth keeping an eye on. Last year’s Cyclones team had an air of “tug of war” between its three high-usage stars, while this year’s squad, at least at this stage, looks like more of a “hot potato” kind of game for buckets. Steve Prohm ensured one of those three was on the floor at all times last season because the offense would have grinded to a halt otherwise; per Hoop Lens data, the three sat simultaneously for just 64 total possessions last year (out of over 2300). This year, no such obvious threats exist.

The team’s best player may be sophomore guard Tyrese Haliburton, but he was deathly allergic to shooting last year, and it remains to be seen whether he can handle a significant bump in offensive responsibility. He signed up for the Monte Morris School of Assist-to-Turnover Mastery (second in the country at 4.46:1), and his unorthodox jumper was deadly (43% from deep), but it’s telling that he qualified in the “Nearly Invisible” section of KenPom’s roster page. He can slide off the ball at times, and with the arrival of freshman point guards Tre Jackson and Caleb Grill, he’ll have the chance to do so.

That means the scoring punch in up-tempo spread offense will probably need to come from elsewhere. The most likely candidates are Michael Jacobson, who actually managed to average double figures alongside the aforementioned shot-happy trio, Colorado St. transfer Prentiss Nixon, and Penn St. transfer Rasir Bolton. Jacobson is a skilled big with touch out to the three-point line and a sneaky mean streak, while Nixon was the leading scorer at his last stop, but he did so inefficiently for an outright bad Mountain West team. Bolton is the wild card – he needs a waiver from the NCAA to play immediately (many think he’ll get it), and he wasn’t particularly effective for a disappointing Nittany Lions team last year. Still, though, he showed an innate confidence as a freshman in a power conference, and slotting into a friendlier offensive system could do wonders (just ask Shayok). If Bolton is not eligible, Terrence Lewis, a former top 100 recruit himself, could be due for a much bigger role, and Marcedus Leech will battle for playing time on the wing, as well.

Iowa State has long been a favorite of the Weave due to its propensity to launch threes, and even more importantly avoid fouls on both ends. This trend has carried over from Fred Hoiberg to Prohm, and while there’s probably an argument that the lack of physicality has limited the ‘Clones’ defensive ceiling, I’m all for the aesthetic pleasure of it. Prohm will look to George Conditt as a replacement for Cam Lard’s interior presence and shot-blocking, and if Solomon Young is healthy, he provides a more defensive, “two-big” alternative at the power forward spot after Iowa State went small almost exclusively last year. Freshman forward Luke Anderson continues the Wisconsin-to-Ames pipeline that brought Matt Thomas and Haliburton, among others, and his shooting could pair with Jacobson to form an extremely stretchy frontcourt duo. I doubt that this is the year the defense is finally better than the offense (it’s now been ten straight seasons without that being the case!), but with a stouter front line and a lanky ball-hawk in Haliburton patrolling the perimeter, there’s at least a chance.

Bottom Line: Offense has never been the question in Ames, but this year, there’s definitely some uncertainty around who will do most of the scoring. The candidates are there, though, leaving Prohm to sort out how to distribute the multitude of newly-available shots. The battle over who the alpha was hindered the Cyclones last year, both on and off the court, and establishing a stricter pecking order may help matters this time around. As it stands, Iowa State looks primed to be a bubble team, with thin margins pushing them to either the right or the wrong side come March.





7. Oklahoma

Key Returners: Kristian Doolittle, Brady Manek, Jamal Bieniemy

Key Losses: Christian James, Jamuni McNeace, Rashard Odomes, Aaron Calixte, Miles Reynolds

Key Newcomers: Austin Reaves (Wichita St.), De’Vion Harmon, Corbin Merritt (JUCO), Victor Iwuakor, Alondes Williams (JUCO), Jalen Hill, Anyang Garang

Lineup: