Russian President Vladimir Putin may lose some popularity at home if his invasion of Ukraine leads to Russian casualties, but he will likely retain broad support because many in his nation want to regain the international power they commanded during the Soviet era.

President Barack Obama on Thursday condemned Russia for sending regular troops into Ukraine to aid pro-Russian separatists, which have been losing ground to the forces of the newly elected government after months of fighting. Satellite images released by NATO early Thursday showed more than 1,000 Russian forces entering Ukraine, prompting a meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

“The violence is encouraged by Russia,” Obama said. “The separatists are trained by Russia. They are armed by Russia. They are funded by Russia."

While Obama said "we are not taking military action" in response to the invasion of Ukraine, he promised to work with NATO to address Russia’s aggression during a summit of the alliance in September.

Many Russians support the occupation of Crimea for various reasons but they increasingly oppose direct military action in Ukraine. Opposition to direct military action rose from 45 percent in June to 61 percent in July, according to polls conducted by the Moscow-based Levada Center, a polling firm and research institute. In July, 69 percent of Russians said they supported Putin’s previous decision not to send troops to Ukraine. The most popular ways for Russia to support Ukraine were humanitarian aid, polling at 47 percent, followed by diplomatic support at 46 percent.

Tom Risen for USWR; Source: Levada Center

Tom Risen for USN&WR; Source: Levada Center



While the U.S. and Europe may plan more sanctions against Putin’s government, it will take something dramatic – like dead Russian soldiers – to bring the Ukraine war home to the streets of Moscow, says Steve Pifer, who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000.

“Russian policy toward Ukraine for the last six months has been relatively cost-free in the terms for what folks see,” says Pifer, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank. “If you begin to see Russian soldiers coming home in body bags and the Ukrainian forces driving up the costs for Russia that may erode public support.”

Efforts to cover-up casualties of the fighting included authorities removing the names of paratroopers recently killed in Ukraine from grave sites in Pskov, Russia, who did not receive military funerals, Russia-based news site Slon reports.

Obama may have taken military action off the table and the NATO summit will likely discuss how to boost defenses for its member states – which do not include Ukraine – but Pifer says the U.S. should supply the embattled nation with weapons including surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank missiles.

“We need to give the Ukrainian military greater capability to impose costs against the Russians – not with the idea that the Ukrainian forces can beat the Russians, but you want to raise the costs for the Russians,” Pifer says.

Along with doubts that the Ukrainian military can beat the Russians on their own in a full-scale invasion, Pifer has doubts that Putin will lose influence among his nation’s oligarchy.

“The Russian parliament is a rubber stamp organization for Putin,” he says.

Putin’s popularity has skyrocketed in Russia since his government occupied and annexed Crimea earlier this year, despite international sanctions and criticism resulting from his support of pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine. The national pride of the Olympic Games in Sochi followed by Russia flexing its international might in Crimea gave Putin an 83 percent approval rating in a poll conducted by Gallup between April and June this year. That’s a huge leap compared with a 54 percent approval rating of Putin in 2013, according to Gallup.

Courtesy of Gallup

Putin has cracked down on press freedom in recent years to secure his influence. Tens of thousands of Russians protested against Putin in 2012 following allegations that he rigged the voting to become elected president for a third term. Many were arrested or fined on trumped-up charges of “hooliganism” or protesting without a permit, and journalists were threatened or blackmailed by the government.

Russians broadcast their demonstrations on live video website Ustream, but the site was hit with a massive hack that slowed down its traffic and prevented people from viewing the video during the protests, says the Ustream CEO Brad Hunstable. It has never been proven whether that hack was sponsored by the Russian government, Hunstable says.

“Since then we have massively built up our infrastructure,” Hunstable says. “Those sorts of hack are attacks on fundamental human rights and Internet freedom. Five million people within Russia alone tuned into video of the protests two years ago on Ustream.”

During the past two months 50 million people around the world have tuned in to Ustream to watch protests in Ukraine and Russia, he says.

“I am proud to say it has given a voice to the voiceless,” he says.

While the Internet may offer ways for Russians and Ukranians to voice their opposition to the war, Putin will likely remain popular among the oligarchy of his country and continue clamping down on protests, says Bob Baer, a former CIA operative. Reflecting on recent conversations he’s had with “members the oligarchy circle,” Baer says opponents of Putin are outnumbered by Russians who support the president’s rule as a return to the international power and influence they commanded during the Cold War.