Margao

: Flashback to January 2012 (two months ahead of the assembly elections): Keen to shed his image as a leader with an air of arrogance, oppositon leader Manohar Parrikar (now defence minister) embarked on a Jan Sampark Abhiyan crisscrossing the state to mingle with the masses. Partaking ‘tambdi bhaji’ with ‘fulkas’ prepared in the homes of farmers in rural Goa, Parrikar’s popularity instantly soared. BJP came to power decimating the Congress with Parrikar taking over the reins as the state’s chief minister.People from the mining belt of Curchorem, Sanvordem and Sanguem constituencies, stood solidly behind the saffron party. Reeling under soaring pollution levels and high accident rates owing to haphazard mining transportation, people believed in Parrikar’s assurance of a mining corridor.Fast forward to November 2016 (three months ahead of the assembly elections): Defence minister Manohar Parrikar’s image has taken a beating again – largely owing to the fact that the BJP-government has failed to live up to the people’s perception of the BJP as “a government with a difference”. Now reeling under the impact of loss of livelihoods for the last three years owing to the mining ban, and with the government failing to build the promised mining corridor, people’s faith in the government has significantly dipped. At the BJP’s first ‘Vijay Sankalp’ mahamelava held in Curchorem, Parrikar reminded the voters about his Jansampark Abhiyan of 2012 and urged them to give a clear verdict to the BJP in 2017.From ‘Jansampark’ to ‘Vijay Sankalp’, much water has flown down the Zuari. While Jansampark Abhiyan propelled BJP to power in 2012, Parrikar captained the sails of Goa’s economy post the mining ban until November 2014, when he was catapulted to the Union cabinet to take over the reins of the nation’s defence. At the ‘Vijay Sankalp’ meeting in Curchorem, Parrikar promised “holistic development” where “happiness will the rule the minds of the people.”Political analysts are of the view that though the BJP has failed to provide the “Promised Land” to its voters, the pathetic state the Congress finds itself in ahead of the elections is a saving grace for the saffron party. With the AAP yet to make much inroads into the mining belt and no other formidable forces to counter, the only threat for the BJP is the fledgling Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM) birthed by the Bharatiya Bhasha Suraksha Manch ( BBSM ).In Curchorem, political observers say that though the incumbent MLA Nilesh Cabral’s position doesn’t face much threat to his prospects in the forthcoming assembly elections, the fact that the RSS volunteers have wowed to work against the BJP should be cause of concern for Cabral. While the BJP camp dismisses the threat as “frivolous”, analysts say that the RSS+BBSM+Shiv Sena forces could deal a substantial blow to Cabral’s applecart.While RSS workers formed the strength of the BJP’s campaign in Curchorem in the 2012 assembly elections despite some initial resentment over Cabral’s nomination, it remains to be seen if Cabral can pull of a victory without the Sangh Parivar’s backing this time.“The Catholic community had also rallied behind the BJP in the 2012 elections, which contributed largely to Cabral’s mammoth victory margin. The situation is different this time as it is unlikely that that the minorities will stick with the BJP this time. The AAP has provided the much-needed alternative to those who are disgusted with both the BJP and the Congress,” a political observer explained.Congress is yet to enter into election mode though the local leaders are seen making some attempts at revival in fits-and-starts.In Sanvordem constituency, incumbent BJP MLA, Ganesh Gaonkar , may also find himself in a secure position, though much will depend on the strength and stature of his rival candidates. Though Gaonkar had based his 2012 poll campaign on the plank of development and promised improved health facilities for mining-affected people, sources said, Gaonkar has not been much successful in fulfilling his promises. Sources also said that though the BJP’s Sanvordem mandal has backed Gaonkar’s candidature, BJP state unit president Vinay Tendulkar is learnt to be eyeing the party’s ticket from Sanvordem.In Sanguem, sources said, incumbent BJP MLA, Subhash Phal Dessai is facing a threat of rebellion from within the BJP camp. Apparently unhappy with the style and functioning of Phal Dessai, many of his supporters have joined the camp of former Sanguem MLA Vasudev Meng Gaonkar who had represented Sanguem constituency for three consecutive terms. BJP had rejected Gaonkar the ticket in the last elections thereby hurting the (scheduled tribes) ST community which comprises 30 percent of the electorate.Gaonkar belongs to the ST community and commands respect from the tribes. The RSS also is a strong force in Sanguem, and its workforce now aligned with the BBSM, it is likely to be an arduous task for Phal Dessai this time, political analysts feel.“BJP feels that the financial assistance doled out to the mining dependents would see it in good stead. While that may hold good to some extent, the loss of livelihoods still hurts them,” a political observer tellingly remarked.