Arkansas State v Georgia Southern

October 5, 7PM CST, Centennial Bank Stadium

You Can Watch This Game On: ESPN2

Wagering (as if you’re into that): Red Wolves -7, 35.8% FPI

Georgia Southern entered the Sun Belt in 2013, and all they did was go undefeated in conference and win the Sun Belt. The next year, Arkansas State said “Oh yeah, well hey we can do that to!” and they went undefeated in conference to win the Sun Belt. Those are two impressive seasons spoiled by one thing: both championships were won without the Red Wolves and the Eagles playing one another.

Ultimate conference bragging rights are awarded Wednesday night in Jonesboro, Arkansas.

Georgia Southern is already 2-0 in the Sun Belt

Because the Sun Belt is weird, Arkansas State and Texas State are the only two teams in the conference who have yet to play a conference game. Georgia Southern, on the other hand, has played two conference contests, earning wins against ULM and South Alabama. But while the Eagles sit atop the SBC (with Troy), there is reason for disquiet in Statesboro. The Eagles needed a blocked field goal to secure a way-too-close 23-21 victory at home against the Warhawks. Georgia Southern looked better against the Jaguars, limiting the slayers of Mississippi State and San Diego State two three field goals in Mobile. But the high-powered Eagles are only averaging 23.5 points against mid-level Sun Belt squads.

Meanwhile, Arkansas State is winless and dismayed

It’s zero fun being a Red Wolves fan right now. With astronomically high preseason expectations, Arkansas State dropped its home opener to Toledo, followed it up with a shellacking to Auburn, lost a tough one to Utah State, and then proceeded to lose its first game to an FCS team since 2001. Yuck. Red Wolves opponents are a combined 12-7, with only Utah State (who lost a hard fought game at Boise State on Saturday night) owning a losing record. Yes, the Red Wolves should not have lost to UCA at home, let alone be winless on the season. But they’ve played a tough challenging OOC, which is typical for Arkansas State. As a fan of an 0-4 team who is now entering conference play might say, “NOW THE REAL SEASON STARTS!”

What makes them Eagles so damn tough?

Surprise, you guys! Georgia Southern ranks 4th in the nation for rushing, because 1) all they do is run the ball and 2) they’re good at it. What’s funky is that the Eagles’ leading rusher isn’t Matt Breida (237 yds) or Wesley Fields (252 yds) or even a running back at all. It’s senior signal caller Favian Upshaw (254 yds). Add pace changing QB Kevin Ellison into the mix (227 yds), and the Eagles “triple-option” offense can hurt you in any way it wants.

The Eagles can stop the run, too.

Even after surrendering 49 to Western Michigan, the Eagles are still holding opponents to 19.8 points per game, the nation’s 29th stingiest. After four games, Georgia Southern ranks 16th in Total Defense, and an impressive 6th for stopping the run. Where the Eagles might have a weakness is defending the pass. Western Michigan’s Zach Terrell threw for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Georgia Southern secondary. The Eagles rank 67th against the pass, surrendering nearly 228 yards per game. That’s not bad, but the Eagles’ are clearly stouter against the rush.

Good news for the Red Wolves: they can pass the ball

The passing game has taken a dramatic swing to the positive since elevating sophomore Justice Hansen to starter during the second half of the the Utah State game. The Red Wolves ranked 91st in passing after Week 2. After Week 4, A-State ranks a respectable 37th, boosted by Hansen’s 424 yard, 3 TD performance in a losing effort against Central Arkansas. By contrast, Georgia Southern’s Favian Upshaw has passed for 409 yards for the entire year. Hansen likes to sling the ball, having connected for big plays with his fast wide receivers. But he can be careless, too, having thrown 3 picks in 1.5 games.

The Red Wolves can throw but can they throw down with the Eagles?

After the soul-smashing loss to in-state FCS program UCA, fans weren’t happy. The team wasn’t happy. Coaches weren’t happy. Everybody wasn’t happy. And when nobody is happy, A-State Athletic Director Terry Mohajir starts dropping mics.

That’s good stuff, but there are so many things going south with this team one wonders if the ten days between UCA and Georgia Southern is enough to get all the talent clicking. Where does Blake Anderson and his staff even begin? The Massey Ratings currently ranks Arkansas State the lowest among Sun Belt teams. That might be because the Red Wolves rank 120th in Total Defense and 117th in Rushing Defense, which is especially alarming considering Georgia Southern’s run-first offense. Furthermore, A-State is accruing more than 10 penalties per game (only San Diego State collects more) and the running game ranks 126th in the nation (behind Georgia State and Texas State #SunBeltHeat). In 2014, the Red Wolves primary problem was defending the run. In 2016, it’s everything (but passing maybe).

How can the Red Wolves defeat Georgia Southern?

The Eagles are 3-1 and a crisp 2-0 in conference, and that’s the important thing. But the loss against Western Michigan (currently ranked 25th in the Amway Coaches Poll) gives opponents an idea for how the Eagles can be beat.

1) Attack in Packs. If the Red Wolves are to stop the Triple Option, they will have to adopt the swarming, “pack mentality” that worked so well in 2015. Sniff out the ball and pounce.

2) Find Magic on Special Teams. The Eagles (much like the Red Wolves) can give up the big play on special teams. Super speedy Daryl Rollin-Davis’ emergence as return man might be the magic the Red Wolves need to improve field position and (gasp) score points.

3) Pick Apart the Secondary. The Broncos only had two pass plays that exceeded more than 30 yards. Broncos QB Zarch Terrel was patient, completing 18 of 27 and averaging 10 yards a pop by finding receivers down the middle. This assignment is certainly in Justice Hansen’s skill set.

How can the Eagles leave Jonesboro 3-0 in the Sun Belt

Every team who has faced the Red Wolves this year has found something new to exploit: special teams, discipline, the secondary, the offensive line, you name it. The Eagles would do well to choose an A-State weakness and stick to the game plan.

1) Surprise Pass. Favian Upshaw, with 4 TDs (against 2 INTs), throws a solid pill. In fact, the Eagles’ first score against Western Michigan was courtesy of a beautiful (and unexpected) 44 yard spiral to Wesley Fields. The Eagles’ second TD was a 33 yard toss from the seldom-throwing Ellison. Surprise! The Red Wolves secondary can be beaten on the big pass play.

2) Get Chippy. Nobody loses their cool easier than the Red Wolves, who average about 78 yards in penalties per game. Goad the Red Wolves into penalties to grab some bonus yards.

3) Pressure Hansen. The Red Wolves sophomore signal caller is dangerous when he has time to throw, but he’s prone to mistakes when pressured. Arkansas State’s offensive line is struggling early in the season. Break into the backfield and force some turnovers.

Black is both slimming and bad ass

Uniform combination this week for our Wednesday night game on ESPN2 at 7pm CT #BeatGeorgiaSouthern #WolvesUp pic.twitter.com/qzv1uMZs8E — Arkansas State Football (@AStateFB) October 3, 2016

The Red Wolves are decked out in mostly-black, perhaps to commemorate the death of an awful OOC performance. On the opposing sideline, Georgia Southern isn’t much for alternative uniforms. We’re guessing white jerseys, white pants, blue helmet.

Just stop and give us a prediction, fool.

Fool? How about this: I HAVE NO PREDICTION SO YOU’RE THE FOOL! Listen, the Red Wolves opened the season 1-3 in 2015, then proceeded to dominate the Sun Belt and win a conference title. Arkansas State has the talent to win. Now it requires leadership from the new staff members and by-in from the veterans running the plays.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern hasn’t looked overly impressive under new head coach Tyson Summers, but 3-1 is still a great start for the Eagles. The Triple Option is still confusing, Matt Breida continues to be dangerous, and any defense with a guy named Ironhead Gallon cannot be trifled with.

Somebody will win Wednesday night. And it will be about time.