WASHINGTON — Unable to pass broader legislation to rewrite the Affordable Care Act, Senate Republicans seem more likely at this point to pass something that would qualify as a "skinny repeal" of Obamacare.

It’s unclear what that would end up being. Thursday afternoon the Senate is expected to vote on dozens of amendments, and at the end of the process — probably late Friday or early Saturday — they probably still will still not have a meaningful repeal bill, because they have been unable to unite 50 Senators behind any plan.

At that point, the expectation is that Republican leaders will offer a few narrow provisions they think could get 50 votes to pass, giving them a bill they could at least take to a conference with House Republicans where they would negotiate some kind of broader health care overhaul. The House has passed its own bill that President Trump has called "mean" and the Senate could not pass.

The Senate might be able to pass narrow language focusing on eliminating mandates for individuals to obtain insurance coverage and employers to provide it, and ending one of the least-popular Obamacare taxes. But it is really anybody's guess at this point what provisions can get 50 votes in the Senate. It is also not clear whether House Republicans would accept a "skinny repeal" just to get a bill to the president's desk.

If Congress does end up passing this kind of "skinny repeal," here's how it could affect you if it’s narrowly targeted:

Would you get a tax cut?

Most of the taxes imposed by the ACA to pay for extending health coverage to more Americans would remain. The exception is a 2.3% excise tax on pacemakers, artificial hips and other medical devices. ACA taxes on insurance and pharmaceutical companies would remain, as would taxes on investment income, higher earnings, high-cost employer-provided plans and tanning beds.

Would you still have to buy insurance?

You would no longer face a tax penalty for a lapse in insurance coverage.

Would your employer still have to offer coverage?

The bill would be expected to repeal the ACA’s penalties for larger employers who don't offer affordable insurance to workers.

What would happen to insurance premiums?

If the mandates are removed, plans sold to those who aren’t offered coverage through an employer or a government program would become more expensive. That’s because without the individual mandate, fewer people would buy insurance and those most likely to opt out are younger, healthier customers. With fewer healthy customers offsetting the costs of sicker ones, premiums would rise. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office previously estimated plans would become about 20% more expensive without the individual mandate.

Would you get help paying for the higher premiums?

It appears the tax credits that help people earning up to 400% of poverty — about $84,650 for a family of three — pay for premiums would remain. The federal government, not the customer, would pick up most of the increased cost in premiums for those eligible for subsidies. But people who don’t qualify would bear the full brunt of higher premiums.

Would you get help paying deductibles and co-payments?

People earning up to 250% of the poverty rate would theoretically still get help with out-of-pocket expenses. But the Trump administration hasn’t committed to continuing to reimburse insurers for these subsidies, a main reason some carriers are considering either ending their participation in the Obamacare exchanges or increasing rates by an additional 20%.

Would insurers still have to sell insurance to people with pre-existing conditions?

A "skinny" bill would likely not end the ACA’s ban on insurers denying coverage to sick people, or basing premiums on their health status. Insurers would also still be required to cover specific benefits. But some insurers may decide they no longer want to sell plans in the individual market if the pool of customers shrinks too much and becomes a lot sicker overall.

Could older people be charged more?

It is likely the bill would not change the ACA’s rule that people in their 60s can’t be charged more than three times as much people in their 20s.

Would young adults be able to stay on their parents’ plan?

The bill probably would not change the ACA’s rule that dependent children can stay on a parent's plan until age 26.

What would happen to people on Medicaid?

A "skinny" plan would not change the extra federal funding available to states who extend Medicaid coverage to people earning just above the poverty line. And unlike the version that passed the House, a skinny bill would also not reduce overall federal spending on Medicaid.

What would be the overall effect on insurance coverage?

With the changes outlined above, the number of people who are uninsured could be about 16 million higher than if the law is not changed, according to CBO. About 7 million would be reductions in the number of people covered by Medicaid. Another 5 million fewer people would buy coverage on the individual market. An estimated 4 million fewer people would get insurance through an employer.

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