What happens if the meaningful vote passes?

May will breathe a sigh of relief if her deal manages to squeak over the line on Tuesday, but not for long. She will probably still have to obtain a short technical extension of article 50 from Brussels to pass the legislation that needs to be in place for Brexit Day. At that point, having achieved a departure from the EU that pleases neither Brexiters nor remainers, she would have to decide whether to try to limp on as prime minister or announce a timetable for standing down to avoid being pushed out by her party.



What happens if the meaningful vote fails?

May refuses to speculate on what the next steps will be if she loses the vote. In truth, it will probably depend on how badly she loses. If it is by 20 or so votes or less, she may try one more push to get her deal over the line, possibly by making promises to a few more Labour MPs in leave-voting seats. If she loses by the same kind of margin as in January, it will require an entirely new approach.



Will parliament take control of the Brexit process?

In the immediate term, May will have to proceed to a vote on Wednesday on whether MPs support leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement. There is certainly no majority in parliament for no deal, and the issue is likely to be extremely divisive for the Tories. The party is split between those who think it is a good idea, those who believe it is undesirable but should not be taken off the table, and those who will not countenance it in any circumstances. May will face a choice about whether to whip her MPs or offer them a free vote on the issue. If no deal is taken off the table, the obvious next step is to request an extension to article 50, meaning that the UK will not leave the EU on 29 March – if the EU agrees to the request.



For how long might article 50 be extended?

Parliament will be given a vote on whether to request an extension of article 50 on the Thursday if May’s deal fails to pass and MPs vote against leaving without deal. The EU will then get to decide whether to grant a short delay until newly elected MEPs take up their seats in July, and all countries must approve that. Officials have been clear, however, that there must be a purpose to the delay – a tangible plan or means of breaking the stalemate in the talks. A longer delay would involve the UK taking part in European parliament elections in May, which would cause serious consternation among Brexit supporters.

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How would May then break the impasse?

She refuses to say. The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has signalled that the cabinet would have to reach across to the Labour frontbench in negotiating a softer Brexit that incorporates a customs union. That would, in the words of one MP, send both the European Research Group (ERG) and Conservative associations “absolutely ballistic” and potentially split the party. There would almost certainly be an attempt by the rightwing of the party to get rid of her.

May is, however, short on alternatives. She could go for a bold option such as a referendum on her deal versus a no-deal Brexit, or one with remain on the ballot. The latter is highly unlikely, given her determination to avoid a rerun of the first contest. She could call a general election, but her deal is proving enduringly unpopular with the country. She could offer to stand down and allow a new leader to “reset” Brexit by trying to start negotiations with Brussels again.



Or she could she do ... nothing?

Some hard Brexiters would like May to simply ignore any direction from parliament ruling out a no-deal Brexit, which would be constitutionally explosive. She could simply run the clock down to March 29 and allow no deal to happen, an eventuality that remainers are concerned about.

