Joseph Gerth, and Joseph Gerth

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell still holds a commanding lead over Louisville businessman Matt Bevin as the Republican primary race enters its final weekend, but his potential match-up this fall against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes remains a toss-up, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll.

The poll found that 55 percent of likely GOP voters support McConnell, while 35 percent favor Bevin. Three other Republican candidates split 5 percent of the vote, with the remaining 5 percent undecided.

But the poll found that McConnell is in a statistical dead heat with a November showdown looming, with 43 percent favoring her and 42 percent backing McConnell, a five-term incumbent. McConnell would do slightly better in a head-to-head match-up with Grimes than Bevin would.

Josh Holmes, an adviser to McConnell, said he's not worried about McConnell's chances because he's weathered a primary in which Bevin spent more than $3 million, and McConnell still appears ready to win in a landslide.

"We as a campaign feel better about the state of the race today than anybody has felt in a long time," he said. "We have run a really effective primary, we have a bunch of infrastructure that we are ready to test in the primary and put in place for the general election."

Sarah Durand, Bevin's spokeswoman, said the poll shows Bevin gaining ground compared with the last Bluegrass Poll. "That helps keep us optimistic."

She said voters need to realize that McConnell can't win in November. "Matt can beat Grimes in a head to head."

Jonathan Hurst, Grimes' adviser, said the poll is one of many that puts Grimes even with McConnell, despite the incumbent spending $12 million in the primary.

"What this poll has got so say to them is that money is not buying the election," Hurst said. "Sen. McConnell is stuck, and no matter how much money he spends, it's not moving him."

The poll was conducted for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, The Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington by SurveyUSA.

It was based on interviews with 2,000 adults reached on home phones and cell phones between May 14-16 and contains margins of error ranging from plus or minus 4 percentage points in questions asked to likely Republican primary voters to plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for one question asked of 1,782 registered voters.

The poll found that a majority of registered Republicans agree with Bevin's argument that McConnell hasn't done enough to cut federal spending or to stop the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

But it isn't enough to offset the 55 percent who believe McConnell's expertise and seniority are important for the state to maintain in Washington, D.C., or the 50 percent of registered Republicans who think that Bevin, who has never held elected office, is too inexperienced.

Also problematic for Bevin is the fact that more than half of Kentucky voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion or have a neutral opinion of him, the poll found.

Take Matthew Holt, a 31-year-old from McKee, Ky., who doesn't have a job and said he plans to vote for McConnell because, "I"m a Republican, I believe in the Second Amendment and hunting and fishing."

Bob Piccolo, a 51-year-old self-employed carpenter in Bellevue, in Campbell County, said he has voted for McConnell but is tired of the Washington gridlock. "To me, in my opinion, we need a refreshing conservative with some fiscal responsibility."

He said Bevin is inexperienced, "but I figure why not give him a chance. ... I know he's not going to win, but it's my statement."

Piccolo said he'll likely vote for McConnell in the fall, although he hasn't ruled out supporting Grimes, noting that he believes some rich people get too many tax breaks.

In a Bluegrass Poll conducted Jan. 30 to Feb. 3, SurveyUSA found McConnell with a 26-point lead over Bevin. Other polls since have found McConnell with leads over Bevin ranging from 17 to 42 percentage points.

Many of those same polls have shown McConnell and Grimes tied neck and neck in what is the most-watched race in the nation this year.

Danny Briscoe, a Democratic consultant, said Grimes should be ahead by more but made a "fairly serious mistake" by not airing television ads the last three months, while McConnell was tangling with Bevin. Instead, she conserved money and waited until just over a week ago to hit the airwaves.

The Bluegrass Poll found that both candidates, however, have potential and significant troubles ahead.

For McConnell, it's his unpopularity and the belief that he is no longer doing a good job in Washington.

The poll found that 56 percent of registered voters disapprove of the job he is doing in the U.S. Senate, while only 34 percent approve. Meanwhile, his personal favorability ratings are also upside down, with 49 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him and only 29 percent say they have a favorable view.

Chartorn Renfro, of Lexington, said it's simple why he is voting for Grimes.

"Because she's not Mitch McConnell," he said.

He believes McConnell was wrong in his almost constant opposition to Obama, and thinks Obamacare his helping people dramatically.

"I think that Mitch McConnell has been such a roadblock to anything that is progressive in Washington," said Renfro, a 63-year-old retiree.

Additionally, it appears McConnell may have difficulty getting Bevin supporters to back him. The poll found that only 39 percent of Bevin voters would back McConnell, while 25 percent say they'll cross party lines in November.

Les Fugate, a Republican lobbyist and activist, said he's not concerned, since McConnell hasn't had a chance to define Grimes, who voters don't really know, according to the poll. Ultimately, he said he thinks Bevin backers will come around and support McConnell.

Meanwhile, he said, McConnell is "the most defined political figure in the state. The question will be going forward, is this a race between Mitch McConnell and (President Barack) Obama. If they're successful in doing this, (McConnell) has a clear path to victory."

That's because the Bluegrass Poll found McConnell's net approval rating slightly better than Obama's. While 29 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Obama, a whopping 57 percent had an unfavorable view of the president.

McConnell has already made Obama's unpopularity a key part of his campaign and is expected to hammer away at him while at the same time attacking Grimes, who has tried to distance herself from the president.

The poll found that 48 percent of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track said they blame Obama and Congress equally for the country being on the wrong track, but 34 percent said they put the blame squarely on Obama's shoulders. Only 18 percent blame Congress more.

Same with party affiliation — 49 percent blame Republicans and Democrats equally but 40 percent said they solely blame Democrats, while 10 percent give all the blame to Republicans.

Demographically, the results suggest this could be a year for Republicans. Even though 54 percent of Kentucky voters are registered Democrats and only 39 are registered Republicans, Bluegrass Poll respondents identified themselves as Republicans almost as frequently as they did Democrats.

Grimes also doesn't appear to be getting the benefit of a large gender gap, either. The Bluegrass Poll found that Grimes leads among women by just 4 percentage points, within the margin of error. Meanwhile, the poll found McConnell with 42 percent of the male vote, compared to Grimes' 41 percent, a statistical tie.

McConnell does best in eastern Kentucky, a region heavily dependent on coal mining and where he has accused Obama of waging a "war on coal." Grimes is strongest in the Louisville area, which SurveyUSA defines as a 14-county area running from Jefferson to Taylor County.

Reporter Joseph Gerth can be reached at (502) 582-4702. Follow him on Twitter at @Joe_Gerth.

ABOUT THE POLL

THE BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on surveys conducted May 14-16 with 2,000 Kentucky adults by SurveyUSA. Of the adults, 1,782 were registered Kentucky voters. Of those registered, 747 were Republicans, and of them, 605 were determined likely to vote in the May 20 Republican Primary.

The poll was conducted for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

The margin of error for the polled questions ranged from plus or minus 2.1 percentage points to 4 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 96 percent to 97.9 percent certainty (depending upon the question) that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had all respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.

In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.

Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV is prohibited.