A really tricky forecast for tomorrow because the short range models are now showing some precipitation breaking out before sunrise tomorrow morning in areas to the west of route 97 and along and north of I-70. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for those areas, including all of Frederick and Carroll counties, the western portion of Howard county, and the northern portion of Baltimore county beginning at 4AM. For the remainder of the 95 corridor, a Winter Weather Advisory begins at 12PM tomorrow. All areas have the advisory through the evening hours until 9PM or 10PM tomorrow night.

There are still some relatively big differences in the models with the GFS brothers being the most ambitious for precipitation totals and snow amounts, and the Euro and short-range NAM being somewhat drier, but all areas should be prepared for a messy afternoon and evening commute. It’s not going to take much precip to ice the roads when the temperature falls below freezing.

The morning commute would be a problem if anything falls in the early morning, but that is difficult to predict because the precip looks light. There is some dry air to overcome, so it may never reach the ground. I’ll be up early tomorrow and make another update.