Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report, and it’s Wednesday! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. Co-creators are Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger ( CLICK HERE to subscribe! ). On Twitter, you can find us at @joneasley and @asimendinger.

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The months-long drama over government funding and border security that produced the nation’s longest federal shutdown may soon be coming to an end.

After initially saying he was “unhappy” with a spending deal brokered by a bipartisan group of lawmakers, President Trump Donald John TrumpOmar fires back at Trump over rally remarks: 'This is my country' Pelosi: Trump hurrying to fill SCOTUS seat so he can repeal ObamaCare Trump mocks Biden appearance, mask use ahead of first debate MORE on Tuesday night appeared to have a change of heart after meeting with Sen. Richard Shelby Richard Craig ShelbySenate GOP eyes early exit Dems discussing government funding bill into February GOP short of votes on Trump's controversial Fed pick MORE (R-Ala.), the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The bipartisan deal would allocate about $1.4 billion toward a border barrier, far less than Trump’s demand for $5.7 billion to build a wall. The budget deal must pass by Friday at midnight to avoid another shutdown and Congress is scheduled to be out next week for the President’s Day holiday.

Trump, under pressure from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellPelosi: Trump hurrying to fill SCOTUS seat so he can repeal ObamaCare Senate GOP aims to confirm Trump court pick by Oct. 29: report Trump argues full Supreme Court needed to settle potential election disputes MORE (R-Ky.), is strongly signaling that he’ll sign the bill, avoid another shutdown, and then likely circumvent Congress to obtain additional money for a border wall he says is already being built.

“I’m adding things to it, and when you add whatever I have to add, it’s all going to happen where we’re going to build a beautiful, big, strong wall.” – Trump



The Memo : Trump set to avoid second shutdown.

The Hill : What’s in the tentative deal to avert a shutdown.

The wildcard here is whether Trump’s allies on Capitol Hill and in conservative media raise hell in the interim and persuade Trump that he’s getting fleeced.

Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity has called the proposal “garbage” and House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows Mark Randall MeadowsHouse moves toward spending vote after bipartisan talks House Democrats mull delay on spending bill vote Southwest Airlines, unions call for six-month extension of government aid MORE (R-N.C.), who helped convince Trump to oppose the Senate’s stopgap spending bill in December, says he’ll vote against the bill.

But the momentum appears to be on the side of the spending deal, with Trump then finding an end-around to obtain additional funds.

“The president has a few more tools in his toolbox.” – House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy Kevin Owen McCarthyMcCarthy's Democratic challenger to launch first TV ad highlighting Air Force service as single mother Trump asked Chamber of Commerce to reconsider Democratic endorsements: report The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by The Air Line Pilots Association - White House moves closer to Pelosi on virus relief bill MORE (R-Calif.)

Trump’s plan to reprogram federal resources toward a border wall will almost certainly be challenged in court by Democrats, kickstarting a sequel drama in Washington.

The Associated Press : Negotiators hope to release legislative language today.

The Washington Post: House prepared to vote on the compromise as soon as this evening, and action in the Senate could follow on Thursday.

The New York Times editorial board : Congress dares Trump to veto latest budget.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board : Bipartisan deal is Trump’s only way out.







LEADING THE DAY





CONGRESS: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), sensing a political opening for his party to draw sharp contrasts with the new House Democratic majority and progressive presidential contenders in the Senate, said his chamber will get a chance to vote on the details of the Green New Deal, which is an environmental and economic treatise embraced most prominently by New York Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Alexandria Ocasio-CortezHouse passes bill to avert shutdown Trump attacks Omar for criticizing US: 'How did you do where you came from?' The Memo: Dems face balancing act on SCOTUS fight MORE ( The Hill.) McConnell did not say when the policy resolution may come to the Senate floor.

“We’ll give everybody an opportunity to go on record and see how they feel about the Green New Deal.” — McConnell

Trump on Monday night at his Texas rally lampooned the Democrats’ Green New Deal as extreme, impractical and unaffordable.

One goal embraced by many left-leaning Democrats is the Green New Deal’s call for a “universal basic income” as a feature of economic justice. A recent National Bureau of Economic Research working paper found that the cost of a universal basic income large enough to increase transfers of wealth to low-income families would run an estimated $3 trillion per year, or about three-quarters of all current federal expenditures.

> Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nancy PelosiPelosi: Trump hurrying to fill SCOTUS seat so he can repeal ObamaCare House lawmakers reach deal to avert shutdown Centrist Democrats 'strongly considering' discharge petition on GOP PPP bill MORE is trying to steer her House caucus, which is nothing if not a big tent. Frictions between liberal and centrist Democrats create new challenges for the California Democrat, who is juggling GOP opposition, news media scrutiny and the exuberant demands of newly elected colleagues ( The Hill ).

One example this week is Rep. Ilhan Omar Ilhan OmarOmar fires back at Trump over rally remarks: 'This is my country' Trump attacks Omar for criticizing US: 'How did you do where you came from?' Democrats scramble on COVID-19 relief amid division, Trump surprise MORE (D-Minn.), who apologized on Monday for what Pelosi and House Democratic leaders criticized as anti-Semitic tweets aimed at the monied influence of a pro-Israel lobbying group. Seizing on discomfort expressed by House Democrats, including among Jewish lawmakers, Trump on Tuesday called on Omar, the Somali-American freshman lawmaker, to resign. He also said she should be relieved of her committee assignments, or perhaps jettisoned from the House Foreign Affairs Committee ( The Hill ).

Across the aisle, Iowa Republican Rep. Steve King Steven (Steve) Arnold KingTrump, Biden deadlocked in Iowa: poll GOP leader: 'There is no place for QAnon in the Republican Party' Loomer win creates bigger problem for House GOP MORE, who last month was punished for sympathetic comments about white supremacy and removed from House committees, is asking House GOP leaders to reinstate him. In a letter, King urged House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California to avoid “the fatal mistake of turning the reins of the U.S. Congress over to the liberal media,” suggesting without evidence that he was misquoted ( The Hill) .



Trump never publicly weighed in on King’s remarks. Regardless, McCarthy is unlikely to bend to King’s request. The Iowa Republican used his letter as public relations aimed at some in the GOP base who are skeptical of McCarthy’s leadership.





IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES





POLITICS & 2020: A major focus for Democrats this cycle will be winning back working-class voters in the Rust Belt region who helped deliver the White House to Trump in 2016. Lisa Hagen takes a look at the candidates and the strategies that might help Democrats rebuild their blue wall ( The Hill ).

> After several weeks of tough press, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) reminded his supporters why he could be a top contender if he decides to run for president. Amie Parnes writes that O’Rourke seized the opportunity with his counterrally to Trump in El Paso on Tuesday night to the delight of his supporters ( The Hill ). Trump repeatedly mocked O’Rourke on Monday night, which very well could be a sign the president is concerned about his potential candidacy.

> Democrats running for president in 2020 have some substantial policy disagreements but agree on at least one thing. Harper Neidig writes that progressives and moderates alike are eager to take on Big Tech over privacy, competition and securing the election ( The Hill ).

> Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, speaking during a CNN town hall event in Houston last night, wouldn’t say if he would drop out of the presidential race in late 2020 if his independent candidacy appeared to be helping Trump ( CNN ).

> Sen. Amy Klobuchar Amy KlobucharSocial media platforms put muscle into National Voter Registration Day Battle lines drawn on precedent in Supreme Court fight Sunday shows - Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death dominates MORE (D-Minn.) sat for an interview with Fox News last night, where she downplayed the Green New Deal as “aspirational” and did not deny reports that she has mistreated staff ( Fox News ).

More from the campaign trail … Former astronaut Mark Kelly, the husband to former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.), a victim of gun violence, will run for Arizona Senate ( The Hill ) … Virginia political crisis in stalemate after impeachment threat ( Reuters ) … Americans who support abortion rights overwhelmingly oppose late-term abortions, now permitted in New York ( YouGov-Americans United for Life ).

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INVESTIGATIONS: The Senate Intelligence Committee’s two-year long investigation into Russia’s election interference has been notable for its bipartisan cooperation, particularly in comparison to the House Intelligence Committee’s nonstop drama and partisan bickering.

But a split emerged this week between Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr Richard Mauze BurrRep. Mark Walker says he's been contacted about Liberty University vacancy Overnight Defense: Trump rejects major cut to military health care | Senate report says Trump campaign's Russia contacts posed 'grave' threat Senate report describes closer ties between 2016 Trump campaign, Russia MORE (R-N.C.) and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner Mark Robert WarnerIntelligence chief says Congress will get some in-person election security briefings Overnight Defense: Trump hosts Israel, UAE, Bahrain for historic signing l Air Force reveals it secretly built and flew new fighter jet l Coronavirus creates delay in Pentagon research for alternative to 'forever chemicals' House approves bill to secure internet-connected federal devices against cyber threats MORE, the ranking Democrat on the panel, over whether there is evidence of conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Moscow.

"There is no factual evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia." – Burr to NBC News

"Respectfully, I disagree. I'm not going to get into any conclusions I've reached because my basis of this has been that I'm not going to reach any conclusion until we finish the investigation. And we still have a number of the key witnesses to come back." – Warner to CNN

NBC News reported on Tuesday that the Senate Intelligence Committee is winding down its investigation and that Democratic staffers have acknowledged that they have not uncovered any evidence of collusion.

"We were never going to find a contract signed in blood saying, 'Hey Vlad, we're going to collude.'" – a Democratic aide

Meanwhile, Trump’s former White House counsel John Dowd made news on ABC News’s new podcast “ The Investigation ,” saying that special counsel Robert Mueller Robert (Bob) MuellerCNN's Toobin warns McCabe is in 'perilous condition' with emboldened Trump CNN anchor rips Trump over Stone while evoking Clinton-Lynch tarmac meeting The Hill's 12:30 Report: New Hampshire fallout MORE had not uncovered any evidence of a conspiracy.

“I know exactly what [Mueller] has. I know exactly what every witness said, what every document said. I know exactly what he asked. And I know what the conclusion or the result is. There's no basis. There's no exposure. It's been a terrible waste of time.” - Dowd

Dowd also said he doubts Mueller will release a final report detailing his finding.

“I don't think there'll be a report. I will be shocked if anything regarding the president is made public, other than ‘We're done.’”

The Washington Post-Schar School Poll : Americans believe Mueller more than Trump and want his findings to be made public.



The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley & Alexis Simendinger. We want to hear from you! @ jeasley@thehill.com and @ asimendinger@thehill.com . We invite you to share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE !





OPINION





Why an obstruction case against Trump will likely fail, by Jonathan Turley, opinion contributor, The Hill. http://bit.ly/2UTcJFB

Trump’s tariffs are working, by Michael Stumo, opinion contributor, The Hill. http://bit.ly/2th7sMg





WHERE AND WHEN





Hill.TV’s “Rising” program, starting at 8 a.m., features Mark Morgan, a former U.S. Border Patrol chief, talking about border security; and Fred Fleitz, former chief of staff of the White House National Security Council, who offers his take on the second summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un in Hanoi Feb. 27-28. http://thehill.com/hilltv

The House convenes at 10 a.m. The Homeland Security Committee hears testimony at 10 a.m. from experts about U.S. election security.

The Senate meets at 10 a.m. and proceeds to executive session to resume consideration of the nomination of William Barr to be attorney general. Confirmation appears assured ( The Hill) .

The president and first lady Melania Trump Melania TrumpMelania Trump: Ginsburg's 'spirit will live on in all she has inspired' The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - You might want to download TikTok now Warning label added to Trump tweet over potential mail-in voting disinformation MORE meet at the White House with Colombia’s President Iván Duque Márquez, a 42-year-old economist elected in August, and Colombia’s first lady, Maria Juliana Ruiz Sandoval at 12:10 p.m. Trump hosts a working lunch with Márquez at 12:30 p.m. At a Washington hotel, Trump addresses a joint conference of associations of major county sheriffs and city chiefs of police at 3 p.m.

Vice President Pence is in Poland and Germany through Saturday. In Warsaw today, the vice president will visit U.S. military forces, meet President Andrzej Duda of Poland, and attend a dinner as part of the Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Michael (Mike) Richard PompeoOvernight Defense: Pentagon redirects pandemic funding to defense contractors | US planning for full Afghanistan withdrawal by May | Anti-Trump GOP group puts ads in military papers Overnight Defense: House Democrats unveil stopgap spending measure to GOP opposition | Bill includes .6B for new subs | Trump issues Iran sanctions after world shrugs at US action at UN Navalny calls on Russia to return clothes he was wearing when he fell ill MORE is traveling in Poland, Belgium and Iceland through Friday.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Steven Terner MnuchinOn The Money: Powell, Mnuchin stress limits of emergency loans | House seeks to salvage vote on spending bill | Economists tell lawmakers: Kill the virus to heal the economy Economists spanning spectrum say recovery depends on containing virus Powell, Mnuchin stress limits of current emergency lending programs MORE and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer Robert (Bob) Emmet LighthizerWhiskey, workers and friends caught in the trade dispute crossfire GOP senator warns quick vote on new NAFTA would be 'huge mistake' Pelosi casts doubt on USMCA deal in 2019 MORE are in China for trade talks on Thursday and Friday ( Reuters and The Associated Press) .

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Sullivan is in Brussels, Belgium, for a NATO ministers meeting ( Reuters ), following his stop in Baghdad on Tuesday to meet with Iraqi leaders ( The New York Times) .

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the U.S. consumer price index for January and the real earnings report for last month, each at 8:30 a.m.





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ELSEWHERE





> Justice: Mexican crime lord Joaquín Guzmán Loera, aka “El Chapo,” was convicted on all counts Tuesday at the end of a three-month federal trial in New York. Guzmán, 61, who led the murderous Sinaloa drug cartel for decades, faces life in prison and will be sentenced in June. His sons took over the business ( The New York Times ).

> State Watch: Commercial opportunities accompany Arctic ice melt in the minds of some Mainers, who are preparing to take advantage of industrial activities that may emerge because greenhouse gases are dramatically altering one of the last wild places on Earth ( The Atlantic ). … The Trump administration faces a key test with Utah's Medicaid program, as the state seeks permission to use billions of federal dollars to expand coverage to only a fraction of the residents required under the Affordable Care Act ( The Hill ).

> Native Americans: “Predator on the Reservation,’’ revealing more than two decades of alleged child sexual abuse by former federal pediatrician Dr. Stanley Patrick Weber, aired Tuesday night on Frontline on most PBS stations, accompanied by investigative reporting by The Wall Street Journal . Reporters Dan Frosch and Christopher Weaver spent two years examining Weber’s predatory activities and the officials at the U.S. Indian Health Service who looked the other way. Weber was indicted in 2017 and 2018 for sexually assaulting six patients in Montana and South Dakota.

> Movies: 2018 saw a record number of women taking leads in Hollywood films. Out of the top 100 highest-grossing movies, 40 films had women in central roles as either the main character or the co-lead, according to the USC Annenberg Inclusion Initiative. It is the highest percentage of female-driven films in 12 years ( Variety ).





THE CLOSER





And finally … Valentine’s Day is tomorrow, which means you still have time to prepare for the dreaded and/or romantic elements of what’s become a crassly commercial and also unignorable annual rite.

News flash: The overall popularity of Valentine’s Day is falling while the average spending per person to communicate sweet nothings is on the rise. And the definition of “loved ones” now includes friends, co-workers and pets, reports the National Retail Federation (see Bloomberg chart ).

In an expanding economy, wallets are open: Total spending across the United States for Valentine’s Day this year is expected to be $20.7 billion, an increase of 6 percent over 2018's $19.6 billion, according to Retail Federation data ( Forbes ).

More than half of U.S. consumers celebrating tomorrow will go for candy, collectively spending $1.8 billion on sweet confections alone. The heart candies known for classic sayings such as "Be Mine" and “XOXO” are the most popular confection for the holiday, ahead of heart-shaped boxed chocolates ( USA Today ).

Judy Kurtz, writing for The Hill’s In the Know blog, offers a guide to left-, right- and center-aligned gifts aimed at that special political junkie you’re mooning over. One suggestion made us laugh: Pins featuring a black and white photo of Mueller’s smiling face, encircled with red and pink hearts (price tag: $3 on Etsy).

Maybe love in 2019 needs investigators on hand: The folks at the Federal Trade Commission warn that “romance scams” generated more reported losses than any other category of consumer fraud, costing online optimists $143 million last year. Lonely seniors are particularly vulnerable, the FTC found.

The origins of Valentine’s Day may be easily forgotten, along with the reason we celebrate on Feb. 14, so brush up on the oldest surviving Valentine poem (1415) and the first feast of Saint Valentine (circa 496) ( The Telegraph ).





