by Sunny Hundal

The Telegraph reports today that David Cameron is to abandon plans to reform the House of Lords after failing to win over Conservative rebels.

They may as well have written, Pope admits Catholicism is the best path to salvation given how surprising this is. I said just a few weeks ago that Lords Reform was dead (until 2015 at least).

The question now is how Libdems retaliate. And they must, or else they’ll have no political bargaining power left whatsoever.



As the Telegraph points out:

In an email to Lib Dem activists, Mr Clegg said: “When we return in the autumn to vote on this again, we fully expect the Conservatives to deliver this crucial part of the Coalition deal – as we have delivered other Coalition policies.” David Laws, a Lib Dem MP and former Treasury minister, said the stand-off over reform could lead to a “chain reaction” which threatened the rest of the Coalition’s programme.

Will the Libdems carry through their threat? They have no choice – even lobby journalists admit as much.

@ tom_watson @ oflynnexpress can’t railroad without Libs who would look foolish to back down on boundary threats if Lords reform shelved. — Kirsty Walker (@kirstywalker1) August 2, 2012

If the Libdems don’t carry out the threat to kill Boundary Review, or exact a significant concession in return, they’ll have lost all leverage. It would spell pure humiliation.

The Telegraph suggests they might be offered party funding reform or more support for green energy, but that seems optimistic. The Conservatives will never agree to significant party funding reform in the way Libdems might like, nor will they significantly increase support for green energy. And both will invite more Tory backbench backlash.

And anyway, can you imagine Nick Clegg going back to his activists and saying: Hey, we lost Lords Reform but at least we got a bit more money for green energy! Woo! — Vince Cable would become a shoo-in for leader.

Nick Clegg is in a lose-lose situation but he has to flex some muscle, if only to stay as leader of his own party.