Just last month the NY Times reported Democrats Are Dominating the Generic Ballot. The margin was reaching levels never before seen, by an average of 13%.

There was a Huge Blue Wave building against a historically bad Republican government.

Then today this poll came out.



The new poll's 49% Democrat to 44% Republican margin among registered voters is almost identical to Democrats' standing in January of 2006, the last midterm election year in which they made significant gains in the House of Representatives.

But it represents a large shift from CNN polls conducted in the past three months, in which Democrats held double-digit advantages over the Republicans.

So what happened? What changed?

For starters, the Democratic establishment has backed unpopular Republican policies time and time again.

Whether it was giving the Pentagon more money than it asked for, and spying on the American public or deregulating Wall Street.

And that's not all.



In addition, three House Democrats have co-sponsored a Republican-led bill that would make it easier for predatory payday lenders to charge borrowers effective annual interest rates exceeding 300%. You have to look hard to find something people despise more than payday lenders -- a recent poll found them to be more than five times less favorable than used car salesmen. And that makes sense. Their entire business model revolves around trapping vulnerable Americans into seemingly never-ending cycles of debt, which is why they cluster near lower-income communities.

That's not what the Democratic Party stands for. Our party lifts up vulnerable communities. It doesn't open them up to Bush-era vulnerability.

Yet another bill would allow payday lenders to override usury laws on the books in 15 states and the District of Columbia. The bill, informally dubbed the Madden bill after the court case Madden v. Midland, would make it easier for non-banks (payday lenders) to partner with national banks to skirt state laws. The bank takes a commission, and payday lenders are able to sidestep basic state consumer protections. The bill has been denounced by the NAACP and others.

It's increasingly hard to ignore the fact that establishment Democrats are not significantly better than Republicans.

Fortunately, there is hope in the form of a progressive, grassroots uprising.



In 2016, a total of 12 Democrats were elected to the U.S. House in Congressional districts that voted for Trump. Of these Democrats elected to pro-Trump districts, four of the 12 are members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which represents the leftmost wing of the Democratic Party.

A true progressive agenda would distinguish the Democrats from the Republicans, and this may happen, but for now that's not the reality of the Dems.

There is a way that establishment Dems are distinguishing themselves from Republicans, but it may be a bad thing come November.



Second, the battle for the soul of the Democratic Party may well exact a heavy cost. In the Senate, a cluster of potential presidential candidates—Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand —has gone all-in on the immigration front. Whatever the outcome of the current fight, they have helped lead most of their colleagues into a government shutdown over their demand for increased protection undocumented (or illegal) immigrants. Yes, polls show most Americans want Dreamers, the immigrants brought here as children, to be protected from deportation. But looked at more locally, the picture is different. One recent survey, taken before Friday’s fireworks, showed that in five deeply red states—each of which has an incumbent Democratic senator up for re-election—voters would blame Democrats if the government shut down because of a fight over the rights of the undocumented.

Establishment Dems are always quick to lecture progressives about being "pragmatic" when it comes to immensely popular economic issues like Medicare For All, but when it comes to an issue that can be framed in Identity Politics, like immigration, pragmatism goes straight out the window.

Suddenly it's a question of moral superiority. Winning the election is an afterthought.

And that's the problem.



A nationwide poll conducted by last year by the Associated Press' NORC Center for Public Affairs research found 47 percent of Americans believe illegal immigration is threatening to the American way of life, while 15 percent think legal immigration threatens it.

The poll also found 71 percent feel the US is losing its national identity, or the beliefs and values the country represents.

Forget whether these fears are right or wrong. People feel this way, and just telling them they are wrong isn't enough.

Historically it's rare for a people to oppose all immigration, but there are no historical examples of nations supporting mass immigration, legal or illegal. Mass immigration always comes with a political backlash.

So the pragmatic approach would be a middle-ground. That doesn't appear to be the Dems' strategy.

What's more, Republicans feel MUCH stronger about immigration than Democrats do. While a majority of people support the Dreamers, they also support ending chain migration.

So it's a weird and risky strategy to go all-in on immigration when few voters outside of your base support the strategy.

If I was to make a guess, I would say the Dems will win big in November, but not as big as they should win. Only a progressive take-over of the Dems can achieve that.