Shooting Percentages

They rely on cross-slot passes and one-timers from elite shooters — Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos combined with the net front reactions of Braden Point. Pre-shot puck movement that forces the goalie to make a dramatic lateral move just before a shot is the secret elixir to increasing goal probabilities and inflating shooting percentages.

It is true that Tampa’s power play is driven by shooting percentage. But there’s a difference between a 5v5 shooting percentage for a player regressing to the mean and a whole power play structure and system regressing to some mean.

When you combine top talents with a strategy that fits them, you should get top results over a season, it may gravitate a little but it should remain above the average.

Let’s take a look at the Toronto and Tampa power play forward shooting percentages this season and keep in mind that the Leafs have the top five-on-five forwards in the league with a leading +40 goal differential at even-strength.

From my viz gallery, data from corsica

Let me explain the above chart. I’ll start with the upper left. Tampa owns the high shooting percentage/fewer chances zone. They get fewer expected goals per 60 minutes according to the xG model (which isn’t aware of shooter talent and pre-pass movement). But when they do shoot, they convert with a higher shooting percentage.

A goalie has to focus to his left and right at the same time with Stamkos and Kucherov and he has to deal with the fallout if he happens to stop the one-timer and that fallout is spelled Brayden Point, there to deflect, scoop rebounds and provide a pass option. Who knows if Gourde and Palat will sustain those rates but the whole freakin’ Tampa PP is up in that quadrant. I don’t believe in coincidences like this when players are part of a structured system. Each player is assigned to a role that optimizes the diversity of threat facing the goaltender, even including Hedman.

The upper right shows the goal-drivers — Matthews and Point. Matthews has gotten 2.45 expected goals per 60 and has a shooting percentage of 30.77% despite the recent decline. Point has a 25% shooting percentage. They get plenty of opportunity to score and they do. The only problem for Toronto is that almost all of that was October when teams hadn’t adjusted to the Leafs power play and Matthews was on fire.

The bottom right is where the Leafs are underperforming despite generating chances — led by John Tavares who is getting 4.16 iXG/60 while shooting a mediocre 13.33%. The other noteworthy one is Nazem Kadri, converting at a 13.64% rate though with half the opportunities.

Here are the final results in five-on-four goal production:

This looks a little better but only because of the volume of chances the Leafs have generated per hour. Tavares moves up into the best quadrant with Matthews and Point. Some Tampa forwards migrate a little towards the low chance/low goals lower right quadrant. By the way, that’s Mitch Marner there below Palat.

EDIT: BONUS SECTION

I ran my shot maps for the Toronto and Tampa power plays from January 1st to February 9th. Here’s what they look like.

From my Gallery, data MoneyPuck to Feb 9.

You’ll notice that the Leafs had a total of 63 shots and 3 goals. Expected goals were 4.5, the shooting % has been a low 7.7%. The inability of JT (91) and others to score from close in stands out. Little activity from the upper slot or from Rielly for that matter.

Tampa’s shot map is a little different. Just notice the increased dispersion for one thing. They cover the ice more than Toronto, especially the upper slot.

From my Gallery, data from MoneyPuck to Feb 9

You can see where Stamkos (91) and Kucherov (86) are firing one-timers from and Brayden Point’s role in the slot and in close. Notice how Point (21) also will move out a little further and get shots away. This is something I was thinking of as a possibility for Tavares.

Tampa’s results are above expected vs average league scoring from those placements. They had 82 shots, a gaudy shooting % of 28.5 and recorded 11 goals compared to the 8.11 expected. Quite a contrast from Toronto.

Let’s wrap this up for today.