It’s going to be a horse race in the provincial byelection for Sudbury, according to a new poll, although one of the jockeys hasn’t even been determined yet.

A phone survey conducted Sunday by Mainstreet Technologies found the Liberals, under newly appointed candidate Glenn Thibeault, out in front by three percentage points over the NDP, which is still in the process of selecting its banner bearer.

The pollster, which used interactive voice recording technology, asked a sampling of Sudburians, "If the provincial byelection were held today, which party would you vote for?’

Of the 602 who responded, 31% said they would vote Grit, while the NDP carried nearly as much support, at 28%.

The Progressive Conservatives, who will field Paula Peroni again as candidate, garnered 15% in the poll, with 12% indicating support for an independent candidate and 11% undecided.

The race back in June, when all of Ontario went to the polls, was also a close one in Sudbury. In the end, the NDP’s Joe Cimino prevailed over Liberal Andrew Olivier, with 42.4% of the vote to the latter’s 39.3%. Peroni finished a distant third, with just under 14%.

Cimino has since stepped down, citing family reasons, while Olivier has been pushed aside by his party in favour of former MP Thibeault, who is making not just a jurisdictional jump to run provincially, but switching his political affiliation to do so.

Apart from the basic question of which party Sudburians intend to support in the byelection, Mainstreet also asked voters how they feel about this move.

Noting that "NDP MP Glenn Thibeault is resigning his federal seat to run for the Liberal Party in the provincial byelection," the pollster inquired: "Do you approve or disapprove?"

A striking 46% of respondents — almost half — said they disapprove of the Thibeault transition. Less than a third — 32% — expressed approval.

Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies, said it’s an interesting figure, but one that likely won’t translate into a big statement at the polls.

"Approval or disapproval of that decision won’t necessarily reflect in the actual votes," he said. "It might just be people didn’t like how it was done, or when it was done, but will still vote provincial Liberal."

He noted the federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau are polling strongly in Sudbury at present and that was likely taken into account by Thibeault in weighing his options.

"I would be surprised if the MP didn’t have similar numbers in hand when he made that decision," he said. "He might have seen the writing on the wall, as it were."

While Thibeault was handpicked by Premier Kathleen Wynne, the NDP has five individuals seeking to replace Cimino — John Caruso, Dave Battaino, Suzanne Shawbonquit, Jesse Gaudet and Paul Loewenberg — with a nomination meeting set for Jan. 18 at the Steelworkers Hall.

Olivier hasn’t indicated his next move, although there is some momentum through social media for him to run as an independent.

Mainstreet is an emerging public research and campaign services firm that conducts polls across the country. The company predicted the current Liberal majority in Ontario and was the most accurate pollster in the recent Toronto municipal election.

David Valentin, media relations officer with Mainstreet, noted the sample size for the Sudbury poll is quite substantial.

"When a national poll comes out for all of Canada it could have 2,000 respondents, but when you break it down by province, the sample for Ontario will only be 400 to 500," he pointed out. "Here you have more than that just for Sudbury."

The margin of error for the poll is 3.98 (+/-), 19 times out of 20.

jim.moodie@sunmedia.ca