US losing clout in the region, new survey shows

China has risen to be the most dominant economic and political power in the region, overtaking the United States' waning influence under the Trump administration, a recent State of Southeast Asia survey showed.

The Asean Studies Centre at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute launched the report after conducting the survey from Nov 12 to Dec 1 last year. As many as 1,308 Asean residents with knowledge of regional affairs participated in the survey, which covered several aspects, including the influence the two major powers have on the region.

According to the report, Asean's perception of China's economic power has risen from 73.3% to 79.2%, eclipsing the US which gets merely 7.9%. The region's perception of China's political power has risen from 45.2% to 52.2%, double that of the US at 26.7%, as 77% of the respondents believe the level of US engagement in the region has diminished under the Trump administration compared to that of his predecessor, Barack Obama.

Thai respondents' perception of China as the most influential economic power has risen from 72.6% to 86.5%, while the United States' influence has seen an uptick from 2.6% to 5.2%. However, 75.9% of the respondents said they were concerned about Beijing's economic clout, while 60% welcomed Washington's growing influence.

In terms of political and strategic influence, the perception of China's political power has climbed from 46% to 53.1%. On the other hand, the US's strategic power has dropped from 33.6% to 29.2%. However, up to 88.2% of respondents said they fret about China's assertion, while 71.4% worry about America's political power.

Thai respondents, meanwhile, want to see Asean's economic power growing, as its perception has dropped from 16.8% to 4.2%. They also want the bloc to flex its political muscles.

More than one-third of Thai respondents voiced support for Asean maintaining its position of not siding with either Washington or Beijing. However, if Thailand were forced to align with either strategic rival, more than half (52.1%) said they would choose China. As for the bloc seeking out third parties, Thai respondents said they would encourage Asean to join hands with the European Union (40.6%) and Japan (31.2%).

Kasira Cheeppensook, deputy dean of graduate studies and international affairs at Chulalongkorn University, said judging by the survey results, many Asean countries, including Thailand, see China as the most dominant power in the region especially since it started pushing for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

"However, Laos's perception of China's economic power has dropped slightly [from 82.8% to 78.3%] possibly because, despite Beijing's huge investment in special economic zones, such as the Golden Triangle, its BRI projects aimed at transforming Laos into a linked country might have an environmental impact," she told the Bangkok Post.

Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the BRI in 2013 to connect Asia with Europe and Africa. Following the concept of the ancient Silk Road, the BRI initiative is aimed at bolstering China's influence in the region via economic development.

Asst Prof Kasira cited Beijing's unilateral policies in the South China Sea, saying China's economic power goes hand in hand with its political influence.

"It can be perceived as aggressive by countries in Asean, which places high value on dependence, sovereignty and consensus-making. Beijing's military build-up, including sending ships into the disputed area, is a cause of concern in the region. Despite negotiations on the [South China Sea] Code of Conduct, we have yet to learn the details, because the paper is still confidential. However, China's clout reinforces the perception that it will not be at a disadvantage."

She also agreed with Thailand's foreign policy of seeing cooperation from various partners on topics of mutual interest. "We can no longer take sides as we did in the past [the liberal or communist world order]. Therefore, middle powers are important, like Japan and India, because they are more multilateral than major powers," she said.