While the party will be lucky to maintain current numbers in the Senate, they have more reason for optimism in the House of Representatives

On 6 November 2018, all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate will be on the ballot. But the politician with the most at stake won’t be.



Democrats mark anniversary of Trump's election with night of sweeping victories Read more

The 2018 midterm elections are likely to be a referendum on Donald Trump’s whirlwind presidency and its political accomplishments, or lack thereof. The stakes are high for Trump – not only would Democratic control of either chamber create yet another obstacle to his legislative agenda, and raise the possibility of impeachment, but it would also mean Democrats would have control of congressional committees, with the ability to conduct oversight of the administration and issue subpoenas to recalcitrant officials.

However, while Democrats are hoping to regain control of at least one chamber, victory may not be as easy as the president’s declining approval rating or Democrats’ strong performance in Tuesday’s off-year elections might suggest.

Senate

Although Republicans only have a slim 52-48 majority in the Senate, the GOP has a very favorable map in 2018.

Of the 33 Senate seats up next year, only eight are currently held by Republicans. The result is that Democrats will have to play defense, particularly in 10 seats that are in states that Trump won in 2016.

The list of vulnerable Democrats ranges from relative moderates from deep red states, including Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, to liberals in swing states, such as Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.

Those like Manchin, who is running in a state Trump won with nearly 70% of the vote, will have to rely entirely on their personal brands and their ability to separate themselves from the national Democratic party. Others, such as Baldwin, who represents a state that Trump won by only 19,000 votes, may simply hope that an energized Democratic base will turn out in the midterms.

Both Heitkamp and Manchin have built strong personal brands and outside experts currently consider Republicans to have the best chance of a pickup in Indiana, where two Republican members of the House are vying to take on the one-term incumbent Joe Donnelly and in Missouri, where Republicans have cleared the field for the state attorney general, Josh Hawley, to face the incumbent Claire McCaskill.

But Republicans have their own weaknesses. The two most vulnerable Republican seats are in Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, the incumbent Jeff Flake opted not seek re-election and currently the only candidate is the former state senator Kelli Ward, a hard-right candidate who unsuccessfully attempted to defeat John McCain in a 2016 primary. However, Martha McSally, a comparatively moderate former air force pilot and US House member, is expected to run as well.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Tammy Baldwin. Photograph: Tom Williams/Roll Call/Getty Images

In Nevada, a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, the incumbent Dean Heller faces primary challenges from his right. In addition, other incumbent Republicans may face primaries against candidates backed by the former White House strategist Steve Bannon.

So far, multiple outside prognosticators see both races as toss-ups in November.

For Democrats to even have a shot at the majority, they need to win in Arizona and Nevada and pick up one other Republican seat. The two best possibilities for the third pickup would be either Tennessee, where incumbent Bob Corker is not seeking re-election, or Texas, where Ted Cruz is set to face the US representative Beto O’Rourke in an increasingly diverse state.

Those are both long shots at best right now for Democrats, and for them to take the majority, they would also have to retain every seat they currently hold – which is unlikely.

The result is that Democrats will be lucky to simply maintain the current balance of power in the Senate.

House of Representatives

The Democrats have more grounds for optimism in the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a majority of 239 seats to Democrats’ 194 and all 435 seats are up for election.

Democratic top targets will be the 23 seats with Republican incumbents in districts where Clinton won in 2016.

In contrast Republicans will be targeting the 12 seats held by Democrats in districts where Trump won last year.

Currently, the Real Clear Politics average of polls where voters are asked if they support a Democrat or a Republican congressional candidate gives Democrats a 10-point lead. However, this is simply a generic test and does not measure specific candidates.

Another factor will be how many incumbents in competitive seats decide not to run for re-election. As of 8 November, 23 Republicans and 10 Democrats had announced they would not run again, several of whom represent swing districts, including Dave Reichert, a moderate Republican from Washington, and Tim Walz of Minnesota, a Democrat who is running for governor.



Democrats’ big wins in off-year elections on Tuesday increase the chances of further retirements, particularly among Republicans representing suburban districts that Clinton won. Democrats picked up a wide swath of state legislative seats in moderate suburban areas where they were not expected to win, riding a wave of revulsion towards Trump, and this may provide a powerful incentive for some Republicans to step down.

One key battlefield for control of the House will be across the state of California, where there are seven Republican-held House seats in districts where Clinton won. This includes the controversial Dana Rohrabacher, who has been labeled Vladimir Putin’s favorite congressman and of whom fellow Republicans joked that he was on the Russian president’s payroll.

However, the dynamics are complicated by California’s unique top-two primary. All candidates for office run in a non-party primary in June and the top two finishers, regardless of party, go on to the general election in November. This has meant in the past that two Republicans faced off in a competitive open seat in 2014.

But with an open governor’s seat that has several prominent Democrats running, as well as the Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein facing a serious primary challenge, it’s possible that there may be no Republican candidates at the top of the ticket in November, which would give Democrats a significant advantage by depressing GOP turnout down-ballot.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Dana Rohrabacher has been called Vladimir Putin’s favorite congressman. Photograph: Aaron Bernstein/Reuters

In contrast, Republicans are hoping that Donald Trump’s gains in the rust belt in 2016 will prove permanent. In Minnesota alone, there are three districts that supported Trump and have Democratic incumbents, including a deep-red district in western Minnesota that has long been represented by the senior Democrat Collin Peterson. Peterson has long been a Republican target in a district that Trump won by 30 points but has managed to hold on in election after election.

The real measure of success for Democrats will be in suburban swing districts similar to Georgia’s sixth district, which Clinton narrowly lost in 2016 and was the setting of a special election earlier this year between the Democrat Jon Ossoff and the Republican Karen Handel that received national attention.

Although Ossoff managed to attract more votes in the special election than the Democratic congressional candidate did in 2016, it wasn’t enough, as the national attention created a surge in turnout in a district where there were simply more Republicans than Democrats.

The hope for Democrats is that in races that will receive less attention, a surge of Democratic enthusiasm will not bring a countervailing Republican surge in similarly marginal districts that Trump had narrowly won.