China appears to be taking the brunt of the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s trade war, at least according to a paper published by EconPol Europe.

The paper, authored by Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr, asserts that American consumers and U.S.-based companies will only absorb 4.5 percent of the 25 percent tariff increase imposed on China — the remaining 20.5 percent will be picked up by China — and this applies to $250 billion in Chinese goods.

Critics argue that the real impact has only begun to take its toll on Amerian farmers, in particular with regard to soybeans.

The pain of a trade war on producers will be efficiently delivered by market adjustments – China’s US soybean imports are down by 94%. The govt subsidies to compensate the losers will be too small, too late, & hamstrung by administrative burdens 1/ https://t.co/5Aj8hl0qci — Don Moynihan (@donmoyn) November 19, 2018

And others — including Chinese President Xi Jinping — have argued that trade wars simply have no winners. (RELATED: US Tariffs Leave China Little Options That Aren’t ‘Playing Into Trump’s Hands)

Trade wars are good and easy to win.

Trade wars are good and easy to win.

Trade wars are good and easy to win.

Trade wars are good and easy to win.

Trade wars are good and easy to win.

Trade wars are good and easy to win.

Except they’re not. https://t.co/l6ThHMaCzM — Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) November 18, 2018

Xi Jinping: US-China trade war will produce no winners https://t.co/fynbEGiRjw — BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) November 17, 2018

Still others have argued that the trade war has pushed business away from China without actually delivering a direct benefit to Americans.

The trade war is pushing business out of China, but not into America | Analysis by @michelletoh235 https://t.co/xy8oVrN1TK pic.twitter.com/mQNaPbdQhi — CNN (@CNN) November 16, 2018

But an indirect benefit to America may still be coming — via Malaysia, for example. Malaysia has reportedly replaced the United States as China’s biggest supplier of ethanol, but Malaysia is compensating for the increased demand by importing some of that ethanol from the United States.

The surprise fuel flows sparked by a raging U.S.-China trade war https://t.co/gjvgjGp5kt via @cangsizhi pic.twitter.com/1ZPvUexJqS — Stuart Wallace (@StuartLWallace) November 19, 2018

China’s former chief trade negotiator may agree with EconPol’s report, however. He attacked Beijing’s strategy on Sunday, calling it unwise.

China’s former chief trade negotiator openly criticised Beijing’s trade war tactics on Sunday https://t.co/eQ9JCjivft — SCMP News (@SCMPNews) November 18, 2018

In addition, President Trump is claiming that his strategy is working. He said on Friday that “China sent a large list of things they are willing to do, and wants to make a deal.”