Republicans are more motivated to vote, and that may be the difference.

The Marquette Law School final poll was just released, and it shows Scott Walker with a 50-43% lead among likely voters:

A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the Wisconsin governor’s race. Another 3 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while 1 percent say that they will vote for someone else. Likely voters are those who say that they are certain to vote in the November election. Among registered voters in the poll, Walker receives 46 percent and Burke 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent saying that they will vote for someone else…. The previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Oct. 9-12, found the race tied among likely voters, with the candidates holding 47 percent each, while 48 percent of registered voters supported Walker to Burke’s 45 percent support.

The poll also found Republicans more motivated to vote:

“Shifting turnout intentions have provided most of the dynamics of the race this fall,” said Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin. “While the results among all registered voters have varied between a tie and a 3-point Walker edge, the likely-voter results have ranged from a 2-point Burke advantage to the current 7-point Walker lead.” In the current poll, 93 percent of Republicans say that they are certain to vote, while 82 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of independents say the same. Two weeks ago 82 percent of Republicans, and 80 percent of both Democrats and independents, said that they were certain to vote. By comparison, in the final Marquette Law School Poll before the 2012 gubernatorial recall election, 92 percent of Republicans, 77 percent of Democrats and 84 percent of independents said that they were certain to vote.

This is a significantly stronger showing for Walker than other recent polls. If Marquette’s enthusiasm numbers are accurate, turnout may be the difference.

Update: Charlie Sykes, Wisconsin radio host, says not so fast:

GOP pollsters on ground here say their #s much closer than MU poll showing @ScottWalker +7. Insider; "strap on the barf bags." — Charles Sykes (@SykesCharlie) October 29, 2014



