But have you noticed that during the recent Bitcoin boom, the wealth was only redistributed, not created?

War

The war begins when it’s cheaper to redistribute wealth that to create it.

Lack of technological progress promotes redistribution without creation. Most of the time, redistribution of wealth happens through stock markets. But sometimes, we need a good old war.

You can’t prevent it from happening. The cycle is timeless:

Population grows

Progress stagnates

War reduces population

War brings progress

If you can’t stop the cycle, what do you do?

You take part.

Progress

Do you feel that we’ve made huge technological progress in the latest decades? Do you feel that we’ve gained deepest insights into laws of nature, launched rockets into space and connected every human to a single communication network? Do you feel that we, human race, are omnipotent?

Good.

That’s how it feels at the top.

That’s when you sell.

… or lack of it

Technological progress never stops, but it varies by intensity. In the end of technological cycle, each invention is less innovative than previous one.

Can you recall any invention greater than Internet? That was in 1982 (TCP/IP standard)

Can you recall any invention greater than browser? That was in 1990 (WorldWideWeb)

Can you recall any invention greater than smartphone? That was in 2007 (iPhone)

Can you recall… anything else?

Markets

Suppose you want to start the war. What would you buy?

— I’d like some crude oil, please.

— Yes, sir, that’s $77 per barrel, up 200% since Jan 2016. Would you like fries with that?

Our little pump

The markets always reflect the information before it becomes public.