So close and yet so far: What does having the largest underground water reserves in Kenya really mean for the people of Turkana?

January 14th, 2014

Brian McSorley, WASH Coordinator, Oxfam Kenya

In September 2013, UNESCO and the Government of Kenya announced the discovery of massive groundwater reserves under Turkana, Kenya.1 This arid and semi arid county in the far north west corner of the country is home to over 700,000 people and is widely acknowledged to be the poorest; with over 95% of the population living in absolute poverty on less than US$1 per day. With all the hype around the discovery,2 it is easy to forget this fact and it was a reality check to be in Turkana one week later and find that nothing had changed – people were still relying on unprotected scoop holes dug into dry river beds to collect water, or were queuing at handpumps, often walking long distances and typically surviving on 10 litres per person per day, which is half the recommended minimum.

And therein lies the problem, a point I had made when asked by the BBC World Service to comment on this news; whilst discovering huge quantities of water contained in previously unknown aquifers beneath Turkana is clearly good news, there is a big difference between water lying in rocks 200 or 300 metres underground and water flowing out of tapstands or into troughs where people and their animals need it most. The media headlines have focused on the reported magnitude of this find – at least 200 billion m3 with reportedly 1.2 billion m3 annually recharged (replenishable and therefore potentially sustainable) which would be more than enough to supply the whole county.3

Clearly this is a simplification that doesn’t consider the practicalities of how this water will be abstracted or where the people are in relation to the aquifers. Getting the water above ground requires investment and, more significantly, assuming investment is forthcoming, securing sustainability of water services in subsequent years is an even greater challenge. Turkana is a product of decades of underinvestment and marginalisation. With low literacy levels, few asphalt roads and even fewer villages having electricity or mobile communication access, simple things like finding a qualified mechanic or spare part to repair a pump, which are essential for operation and maintenance, are major challenges in Turkana.

Notwithstanding these challenges, this research is welcome news and it will help Oxfam’s work. Large parts of the County have been notoriously difficult to find water. Drilling a borehole in Turkana is like tossing a coin, with success/failure rates historically both at around 50%. A borehole fails if it is either dry (fails to intercept extractable water), or if water is saline or contains high fluorides, which makes it unpalatable or unfit to drink. Add to that the fact that there are unscrupulous and inexperienced drillers who may not be competent or equipped for the job, or even committed to trying to complete a successful borehole where there is water bearing rock. While the chances of success can be improved by factors such as hiring an experienced hydrogeologist, using a competent contractor, and supervising drilling very closely, the outcome is never certain.

Since 2007, Oxfam has drilled over one hundred boreholes in Turkana, of which over 70% have been productive and are used to supply the needs of over 50,000 people. Whilst this success rate is above average, it still means that for every 10 boreholes drilled, 2 or 3 will be unsuccessful. The consequence of this failure rate mean that a proportion of funding being invested is not resulting in a tangible benefit and some communities end up disappointed and without water. While the findings of the UNESCO study1 will help to further weight the odds in our favour, as any hydrogeologist knows, interpreting satellite maps, seismic, and geophysical data is not a precise science which is why groundwater investigations (the UNESCO study included) talk about groundwater “potential” or “probability”. As such, success is still not guaranteed.

Communities sitting on top of the “Lotikipi” aquifer to the north east of Lokichoggio, the larger of the two aquifers discovered, may be the lucky ones. However, there are very few people who actually do live there as the aquifer basin underlies just a few per cent of the 77,000 km2 total land mass of Turkana County. Pumping water tens or hundreds of kilometres to “export” it to other regions is very expensive as it requires significant infrastructure and a substantial amount of energy for pumping costs. These costs would make accessing water too expensive for the poorest and most needy people, and could potentially exacerbate existing natural resource based conflicts.

The fact that the neediest communities tend to live in areas which lack such favourable underground conditions also partly explains why so many boreholes are not successful. With no major aquifer in proximity, finding water is determined by identifying very small fault or fracture systems underground that intersect seasonal rivers – hit one of these and there can be sufficient replenishable fresh water for a whole community; miss – either because you drilled in the wrong place or because the fracture was nonexistent (due to misinterpretation of the geophysical data) and you have spent US$5,000 – $10,000 with no benefit. These are the fine margins between success and failure, but the needs of communities in such areas often justify the risks.

If well managed, in time this discovery has the potential to make a huge positive difference to communities in Turkana, giving them a much needed push towards the living standards of the rest of Kenya, which in turn will provide some impetus to help Kenya in its quest to become a middle income country by 2020. Access to sufficient, safe, clean water would reduce the incidence of diseases and malnutrition, particularly diarrhoea which is the second leading cause of death of young children in Kenya, and prevents an estimated 17,900 children every year from reaching their 5th birthday.4

Improved water availability can also provide new livelihood opportunities such as small scale irrigation schemes and production of local fruit and vegetables which contribute to improved food security in a county which currently imports these goods from neighbouring counties at great expense. As such, the discovery of significant groundwater resources could act as an incentive for much needed inward investment in agriculture which could kick start the economy of Turkana.

The “if” is due to the fact that there are examples, from Kenya and elsewhere, where this has not been the case and a disproportionate amount of benefits go to external investors, with local people and traditional livelihoods either not benefitting or being detrimentally affected.5,6 Economic activity can also lead to land speculation pushing up the price of land and displacing local people. Communities in Lotikipi may not consider themselves so lucky if their grazing lands are leased to agro-businesses without their consent.

The immediate needs of the Turkana people are for improved water access for themselves and their animals but already there is talk of this discovery contributing towards the Government target of getting an additional 1.2 million hectares under irrigation. While there is potential to use some of this water to improve crop production, planning decisions must be informed by irrigation schemes elsewhere that have not brought the benefits promised and have had adverse effects on local communities by, for example, creating land enclosures which create barriers along traditional migration routes or reducing communal grazing lands.

That the Government have invested in this study is a very positive sign of intent that they are serious about addressing decades of under investment and marginalisation by successive governments before them. However, it is still too early to share the optimism of Alain Gachet, the man behind this impressive research, in his assertion that this discovery will transform Turkana and relieve suffering.2

The critical issue is what happens next and how this discovery will be managed. The most important requisite being that decisions are taken in consultation with Turkana representatives and that they are first and foremost in the interests of the communities they serve. What is in the interests of the people in Turkana is also likely to serve the national interest. Whilst there is naturally great optimism associated with this news this must be balanced against the current reality. It is worth therefore re-emphasising the point made in the introduction – whilst Turkana may be sitting on the largest natural resource wealth within Kenya – with this news following discovery of oil in 2012 – for now its people remain the poorest in the country.

References:

1. UNESCO (2013) Strategic groundwater reserves found in Northern Kenya http://www.unesco.org/new/en/media-services/single-view/news/strategic_groundwater_reserves_found_in_northern_kenya/#.UoFT85QRDT0

2. The Guardian newspaper, ‘Massive water discovery in Kenya’s desert’ http://www.theguardian.com/environment/africa-wild/2013/sep/11/1

3. The Guardian Newspaper, 11th September 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/sep/11/kenya-water-discovery-drought-relief

4. WSP – World Bank March 2012 – Country Fact sheet Kenya

5. Nature Kenya (2013) is engaged in protecting the Tana Delta and has declared that “none of the irrigation or projects set up in the Lower Tana in the past half century has been successful” http://www.naturekenya.org/content/tana-delta

6. Think Africa Press, 4th November 2013, Human rights abuse and displacement related to irrigation schemes in Lower Omo, Ethiopia http://thinkafricapress.com/ethiopia/politics-stupid-uk-aid-and-human-rights-abuses-lower-omo-valley

Brian has been working on development and humanitarian issues since 1996. He joined Oxfam in 2003 as Public Health Engineering advisor in Eritrea before becoming Oxfam’s WASH coordinator in Kenya in 2006. In this role he overseas Oxfam’s water and sanitation work to pastoralist communities in Northern Kenya, as well as residents of Nairobi slums and refugees. In addition, between 2010 and 2013 Brian managed Oxfam’s refugee programme in Dadaab, which provided water and sanitation to over 80,000 refugees from Somalia.

The views expressed in this article belong to the individual authors and do not represent the views of the Global Water Forum, the UNESCO Chair in Water Economics and Transboundary Water Governance, UNESCO, the Australian National University, Oxford University, or any of the institutions to which the authors are associated. Please see the Global Water Forum terms and conditions here.