Jason Williams

jwilliams@enquirer.com

It's official: Yvette Simpson vs. John Cranley.

Simpson on Wednesday officially announced she will challenge the incumbent in the 2017 Cincinnati mayoral race. The City Councilwoman's announcement means city voters will have a choice between an urban progressive Democrat and an establishment Democrat for the second consecutive city election cycle.

After winning decisively in 2013 over well-known Cincinnati political veteran Roxanne Qualls, Cranley will be a formidable opponent for the lesser-known Simpson. Cranley and Simpson already have been campaigning for months, and local political watchers expect an intense race over the next 15 months (or nine months if someone else jumps in and there's a spring primary).

Meet the woman who will challenge Cranley in mayoral race

Here are four questions to consider as the campaigns officially get underway:

What will the candidates’ messages be to voters?

They'll both attempt to appeal to everyday citizens, but in much different ways.

Simpson will promote that she overcame a tough upbringing in Lincoln Heights by collaborating with people and having a positive personality. She expects that will help her in pushing issues such as reducing childhood poverty, youth jobs programs and growing neighborhood small businesses.

Expect Simpson to tell voters that Cranley can't related because he's backed by big-business CEOs and real estate developers. She also might exploit Cranley's reputation as having an abrasive and controlling personality that Simpson believes creates divisiveness.

"Our city deserves a visionary leader who will serve our city and its citizens with an open door, an open ear and an open heart," said Simpson, who is in her second term on Council. "One who will work collaboratively with Council, our administration, employees and stakeholders."

Conversely, Cranley might say his opponent is a nice person who has a good personal story about overcoming obstacles, but that she hasn't gotten much done on City Council and helped create some of the budget problems at City Hall that he has had to clean up. Simpson is an understudy of former Mayor Mark Mallory and former Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls, having sided with them on building the streetcar route through Downtown and Over-the-Rhine.

For that, Cranley went as far as to call Simpson an "insider" on Wednesday, despite the fact he spent nearly a decade on City Council and has long been a favorite of the city's Democratic establishment. In 2013, Cranley said the Mallory administration shirked basic governmental responsibilities in favor of the streetcar. He instead promised to pave streets citywide, make the city safer by adding more cops and look out for taxpayers by fixing the retirement fund. He has done all that -- and expect him to stick to that message and tell voters that Simpson is Qualls 2.0.

"Do we want to go back to a day where City Hall was focused on pet projects for insiders and politicians?" Cranley said. "She wants to go back to a time that we’ve been trying to change. The voters will have to decide if they want to stick with the change or go back to the status quo."

Who will win a majority of African-American support?

The African-American community is not monolithic, but winning a majority of black votes is a key in the city election. In 2013, Cranley did a solid job of winning support from key African-American leaders, including former Mayor Dwight Tillery, City Councilman Christopher Smitherman, Bond Hill businessman Steve Reece, state Rep. Alicia Reece and several top black pastors.

Cranley mostly has maintained a good reputation among blacks, in part for significantly increasing opportunities for minority-owned businesses to get city contracts. Unlike the last election, however, Cranley now faces an African-American opponent. Simpson most likely will receive support from Mallory and possibly local NAACP leader Rob Richardson Jr., if his son doesn't end up jumping into the mayoral race.

But it's no guarantee Simpson will win a majority of the African-American votes. Keep in mind, several African-American residents have told The Enquirer that they generally do not like the streetcar, which they view as taking resources away from improving a bus system that is woeful at connecting people to jobs.

"She will have to earn the African-American vote," said City Councilman Wendell Young, who supports Simpson. "You have to get out and convince people that you have their best interest at heart. I'm confident she can do that get that support. But it's not a situation where: 'I'm black, you're black and therefore we're together.' That's not going to happen."

What impact will the union raise issue have?

Cranley's recent proposal to give five public-employee labor unions big raises over the next three years could ultimately help him get re-elected, even if it doesn't pass. He's been criticized for bypassing the city manager and City Council and negotiating with the unions on his own. But he's also been praised for it being a smart political maneuver to get out ahead of Simpson and win favor with unions that represent 6,000 employees.

Simpson, who is pro-labor, has remained steadfast in her criticism against Cranley for not collaborating with others at City Hall.

"Although I thought he stepped outside the process, he can't lose with the unions," said Ozie Davis, a community activist who is supporting Simpson in the race. "I was listening to (a radio show) the day after he did it and there were African-American city workers calling and saying: 'Thank you!' The host said: 'Even if it's illegal.' And the workers were saying: 'I don't care of it's illegal.' "

Davis added: "People are looking for somebody to advocate for them. They don't give a damn about process at this point, so the people who are trying to fix the process look like villains."

Davis has advised Simpson to turn her focus to finding a solution to allow union workers to be able to get raises each year and avoid going several years without pay increases like they have been.

Will the streetcar be an issue?

Maybe. Simpson did not mention it during her announcement. Cranley said he's not sure it will be. But a lot of Simpson's financial support has come from big streetcar supporters who want the route to be extended up the hill to near the University of Cincinnati and the region's top hospitals.

Simpson probably has to tread lightly in this area for now. As mentioned, African-Americans generally aren't fond of the streetcar. And most neighborhood leaders also do not like the streetcar, which is viewed as taking resources away from places like Westwood and Bond Hill.

It's possible Simpson will wait and see how the streetcar is received after the route opens next month. Make no mistake, Cranley's campaign will pounce on the opportunity to criticize the streetcar if ridership numbers do not meet expectations.