Let’s establish a few things about the Calder Trophy race.

The first is that it’s a two-horse race.

Yes, defenseman Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets has been spectacularly solid, and has given them the same kind of transformative boost that Auston Matthews has given the Toronto Maple Leafs. Yes, Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Matt Murray is a rookie who is 21-7-3 with a .924 save percentage. He may end up being the hipster pick for the Calder, but one wonders if he has the work rate commiserate with Calder-winning goalies – not to mention the support from enough voters outside of Pittsburgh to Ken Dryden this thing.

Yes, Mitch Marner might end winning the points race for rookies, but one look at his regular linemates and those of Matthews and you’re not handing him the Calder if he finishes a point ahead of his Maple Leafs teammate. There’s also a rather large hype gap between Marner and Matthews, as well as Marner and Laine.

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The second thing, as the two rookies prepare to battle on Tuesday night in Toronto, is the obvious acknowledgement that in the Patrik Laine vs. Auston Matthews showdown for rookie of the year, we all win.

This is great. It’s the best thing we’ve had since Alex Ovechkin vs. Sidney Crosby, and it’s not a coincidence that we’re seeing the same dynamics play out: Foreign player vs. North American-made; winger vs. center; rock star vs. stoic leader guy. The only twist is that it’s Matthews, 19, who has the larger highlight reel this season than Laine, 18, who has to settle for the better numbers in fewer games.

So who has the edge for the Calder right now?

Let’s get the basic stuff out of the way. Laine leads all rookies in points (52) and is tied with Matthews in goals (28).

(I’ve seen the argument that Laine’s three empty-net goals should somehow be dismissed, which is a rather incredible argument when Team Matthews is all like “look at the defensive responsibility he has as a teenage center!” and all Patrik Laine gets is the trust of his coach as an 18-year-old to be out there in the most critical defensive moment of the game … and scoring three goals during it.)

Matthews has 49 points, and has played 58 games, while Laine has played 54. Which means that Laine (0.96) has a significant lead over Matthews in points per game (0.84), so it’ll be fun to see all those Connor McDavid voters from last season who planted their flag on that stat completely forget it exists when voting against Laine.

Laine leads all rookie forwards with 15:26 TOI at even strength, with Matthews right behind him at 15:13. Laine has the edge in even-strength points (40) over Matthews, despite playing fewer games. Laine has a goals-for-per-60-minutes at even strength of 3.34, while Matthews is at 2.68 – that said, Matthews leads all rookies with 24 even-strength goals, while Laine has 20.

(Keep in mind that Ovechkin only had 28 EV goals when he won the Calder with 52 goals overall. So we’re seeing remarkable even-strength play from both rookies.)

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Matthews is slightly more protected than Laine, with 39.74 percent of his shifts starting in the offensive zone vs. 35.77 for Laine. They’re both seeing similar quality of opponents.

Matthews has an advantage in possession, with a Corsi of 52.49 percent to Laine’s 48.11 percent. But it should be said that the Leafs are a better overall Corsi team than the Jets are this season.

Matthews also has 10 first goals of the game, best in the NHL, a stat that yours truly weighs a little heavier than others.

Let’s get to the three major arguments for Matthews:

1 – He’s doing more with less. Matthews has played the majority of his minutes with Zach Hyman and Connor Brown this season, with William Nylander next-highest. Laine has played mostly with Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers, and with Dustin Byfuglien as his primary defenseman on the ice. That’s … better.

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