Summer 2019

Based on the 2016 Census, for Ontario and its 49 Census Divisions

General inquiries regarding the Ontario Population Projections, 2018–2046 should be directed to:

Ministry of Finance Information Centre

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Ce rapport est disponible en français sous le titre Projections démographiques pour l’Ontario, 2018–2046 sur le site Web du ministère des Finances, à l’adresse suivante : www.fin.gov.on.ca/fr/economy/demographics/projections/index.html

© Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2019

ISBN 978–1–4868–3683–3 (Print)

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Table of Contents

Map of Ontario Census divisions

Introduction

Highlights

Projections Results

Reference, low and high-growth scenarios

The components of Ontario population change

Age structure

Regional components of population change

Regional population growth

Regional age structure

Methodology and Assumptions

Projections methodology

Base population

Fertility

Mortality

Components of net migration

Glossary

Statistical Tables

Map of Ontario Census Divisions

Introduction

This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the base year of 2018 to 2046. These projections were produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance and were released in September 2019.

The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to provide a demographic outlook reflecting the most up-to-date trends and historical data. This update uses as a base the new 2018 population estimates from Statistics Canada (based on the 2016 Census) and includes changes to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

The new projections include three scenarios for Ontario. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only.

The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total.

The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary.

Highlights

Highlights of the new 2018–2046 projections reference scenario:

Ontario’s population is projected to grow by 38.0 per cent, or over 5.4 million, over the next 28 years, from an estimated 14.3 million on July 1, 2018 to almost 19.8 million by July 1, 2046.

The annual rate of growth of Ontario’s population is projected to ease gradually from 1.8 per cent to 1.0 per cent over the projection period.

Net migration is projected to account for 82 per cent of all population growth in the province over the 2018–2046 period, with natural increase accounting for the remaining 18 per cent. In the second half of the projections, the contribution of natural increase will moderate once all baby boomers will have reached their senior years, and the number of deaths will start to increase more rapidly.

The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to almost double from 2.4 million, or 16.9 per cent of population, in 2018 to 4.6 million, or 23.4 per cent, by 2046. The growth in the share and number of seniors accelerates over the 2018–2031 period as baby boomers turn age 65. After 2031, the growth in the number of seniors slows significantly.

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2018 to 2.9 million by 2046. The children’s share of population is projected to decrease gradually from 15.8 per cent in 2018 to 14.7 per cent by 2046.

The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to increase from 9.6 million in 2018 to 12.2 million by 2046. This age group is projected to decline as a share of total population, from 67.2 per cent in 2018 to 61.9 per cent by 2046. As baby boomers continue to turn age 65, the growth in population aged 15–64 slows until 2031–32 and then accelerates slightly over the remainder of the projection.

The Greater Toronto Area ( GTA ) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, with its population increasing by 3.4 million, or 49.6 per cent, from 6.8 million in 2018 to over 10.2 million by 2046. The GTA ’s share of provincial population is projected to rise from 47.8 per cent in 2018 to 51.8 per cent in 2046.

) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, with its population increasing by 3.4 million, or 49.6 per cent, from 6.8 million in 2018 to over 10.2 million by 2046. The ’s share of provincial population is projected to rise from 47.8 per cent in 2018 to 51.8 per cent in 2046. The five other regions are also projected to see growing populations over the projection period, but at a slower pace than the provincial average. As a result, the share of Ontario’s total population that each of them represents is projected to decline over time.

All regions see a shift to an older age structure. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase.

Projection Results

Reference, low and high-growth scenarios

The Ministry of Finance projections provide three growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2046. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated.

Under all three scenarios, Ontario’s population is projected to experience growth over the 2018– 2046 period. In the reference scenario, population is projected to grow 38.0 per cent, or over 5.4 million, over the next 28 years, from an estimated 14.3 million on July 1, 2018 to almost 19.8 million on July 1, 2046.

In the low-growth scenario, population increases 20.4 per cent, or 2.9 million, to reach over 17.2 million people by 2046. In the high-growth scenario, population grows 57.9 per cent, or 8.3 million, to 22.6 million people by the end of the projection period.

The annual rate of growth of Ontario’s population in the reference scenario is projected to ease gradually from 1.8 per cent to 1.0 per cent over the projection period.

In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of population growth is projected to decline from 1.4 per cent to 0.4 per cent over the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the annual population growth rate is projected to decrease gradually from 2.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent between 2018 and 2046.

The components of Ontario population change

In any given year, the contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more volatile, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in international migration. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 84 per cent in 2017–18 and as low as 53 per cent in 2014–15.

Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 97,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 47,000 in 2014–15 and a high of 211,000 in 2017–18. The numbers of births and deaths have been rising slowly, while natural increase has declined from 53,000 to 41,000 over the last decade.

Net migration is projected to be relatively high at the beginning of the projections as immigration levels keep increasing according to the federal immigration plan, as net gains of population through interprovincial migration continue, and as the number of non-permanent residents keeps increasing at a rapid pace. Ontario’s annual net migration gain is projected to peak initially at 214,000 in 2019–20 and to return to more normal values of around 136,000 by 2024–25. Subsequently, net migration is projected to rise gradually as population grows, reaching 169,000 by 2045–46. The share of population growth accounted for by net migration is projected to decline from 83 per cent in 2018–19 to 75 per cent in 2024–25, and then to gradually rise to reach 89 per cent by 2046, as a result of lower natural increase.

Future levels of natural increase will be affected by two main factors over the projection period. First is the passage of the baby boom echo generation (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, which results in a considerable increase in the number of births until the mid-2020s. Births are projected to increase from 146,000 in 2018–19 to over 163,000 by 2026-27 and remain above that level until the end of the projection period.

The second major factor influencing the future path of natural increase in Ontario is the continuing transition of large cohorts of baby boomers into the senior age group. By 2031, all baby boomers will be 65 or older and the number of deaths will start to increase more rapidly. Until the mid-2020s, the pace of increase in the annual number of deaths in Ontario is projected to slow as the small cohorts born during the 1930s approach the end of their lifespan. From 2018–19 to 2023–24, the annual number of deaths is projected to rise from 104,000 to 113,000. Over the remainder of the projections, the annual number of deaths increases faster, to reach 171,000 by 2045–46.

Initially driven by births rising faster than deaths, natural increase is projected to rise from 42,000 in 2018–19 to peak at 47,000 in 2023–24, followed by a steady decline to less than 21,000 by 2045–46. The share of population growth accounted for by natural increase is projected to decline from 25 per cent in 2024–25 to 11 per cent by 2045–46.

Age structure

By 2046, there will be more people in every single year of age in Ontario compared to 2018, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Baby boomers will have swelled the ranks of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have bolstered the population aged 15–64.

The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to rise from 41 years in 2018 to 43 years in 2046. The median age for women climbs from 42 to 44 years over the projection period while for men it is projected to increase from 39 to 42 years.

The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to almost double from about 2.4 million, or 16.9 per cent of population in 2018, to more than 4.6 million, or 23.4 per cent, by 2046. In 2016, for the first time, seniors accounted for a larger share of population than children aged 0–14.

By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the pace of increase in the number and share of seniors is projected to slow significantly. The annual growth rate of the senior age group is projected to slow from an average of 3.5 per cent over 2018–31 to 1.0 per cent by the end of the projection period.

The older age groups will experience the fastest growth among seniors. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise from 1.1 million in 2018 to 2.8 million by 2046. The 90+ group will nearly quadruple in size, from 126,000 to 467,000.

The proportion of women among the oldest seniors is projected to remain higher than that of men but declines slightly as male life expectancy is projected to increase relatively faster. In 2018, there were 37 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group. By 2046, it is projected that there will be 21 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group.

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2018 to 2.9 million by 2046. The share of children in the population is projected to decrease from 15.8 per cent in 2018 to 14.7 per cent by 2046.

The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to grow from 9.6 million in 2018 to 12.2 million by 2046, a slower pace of increase than the 0–14 and 65+ age groups. As a result, the 15–64 age group is projected to account for a decreasing share of total population, declining from 67.2 per cent in 2018 to 61.9 per cent by 2046.

The growth rate of the population aged 15–64 is projected to continue to trend lower until the early 2030s. From an annual rate of growth of 1.5 per cent at the beginning of the projection, this age group is projected to grow by only 0.4 per cent by 2027–28. Thereafter, as the children of the baby boom echo begin to reach age 15, the pace of annual growth of the 15–64 age group is projected to improve, reaching 1.0 per cent in 2045–46.

Within the 15–64 age group, the number of youth (those aged 15–24) is projected to increase throughout the projection period, from 1.9 million in 2018 to almost 2.5 million by 2046. The youth share of total population is projected to decline from 13.1 per cent in 2018 to 12.4 per cent by 2036, followed by a small rise to 12.6 per cent by 2046.

The number of people aged 25–44 is projected to increase during the projection period, from 3.8 million in 2018 to 5.0 million by 2046, while their share of population is projected to initially increase from 26.7 to 27.6 per cent by 2025, followed by a decline to 25.3 per cent by 2046.

The number of people aged 45–64 is projected to be fairly stable during the first half of the projection period at about 3.9 million. Growth of this age group is projected to pick up in the early 2030s, to reach over 4.7 million by 2046. Its share of population is projected to initially decline from 27.4 to 23.0 per cent by 2033, and to resume growing to reach 24.0 per cent by 2046.

Regional components of population change

The main demographic determinants of regional population growth are the current age structure of the population, the pace of natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each of Ontario’s regions. Demographic trends vary significantly among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario.

The current age structure of each region has a direct impact on projected regional births and deaths. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of comparable size with an older age structure. Also, since migration rates vary by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population.

The general aging of the population will result in a rising number of census divisions where deaths will exceed births (negative natural increase) over the projection period. Deaths exceeded births in 23 of Ontario’s 49 census divisions over the past five years. This number is projected to rise gradually such that 36 census divisions are projected to experience negative natural increase by 2045–46. Although this represents a majority of census divisions, they will account for only 24 per cent of Ontario’s population in 2046.

This declining trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow. This trend is projected to continue as the population ages further.

Migration is the most important factor contributing to population growth for Ontario and for most of its regions. Net migration gains, whether from international sources, other parts of Canada or other regions of Ontario, are projected to continue to be the major source of population growth for almost all census divisions.

Large urban areas, especially the Greater Toronto Area ( GTA ), which receive most of the international migration to Ontario, are projected to grow strongly. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of growth. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario receive only a small share of international migration and have been experiencing net out-migration, mostly among young adults, which reduces both current and future population growth.

Regional population growth

The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, accounting for over 62 per cent of Ontario’s net population growth to 2046. The GTA ’s population is projected to increase from 6.8 million in 2018 to 10.2 million in 2046. The region’s share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 47.8 per cent in 2018 to 51.8 per cent in 2046, passing the 50 per cent mark in 2033.

Within the GTA , Toronto’s population is projected to rise from 2.96 million in 2018 to 4.27 million in 2046, an increase of 44.5 per cent, somewhat faster than the provincial growth rate. Growth in the other census divisions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) overall is projected to be significantly faster than the Ontario average, with the addition of over 2.1 million people to the suburban GTA . Peel is projected to see its population increase by over one million from 2018 to 2046, a 68.7 per cent rise, and the fastest growth among census divisions of the province.

The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 1.07 million or 34.5 per cent, from 3.11 million in 2018 to 4.18 million in 2046. The region’s share of provincial population is projected to decline slightly from 21.7 to 21.2 per cent. Three census divisions of Central Ontario are projected to continue to experience population growth above the provincial average: Waterloo at 41.9 per cent, Simcoe at 43.3 per cent, and Dufferin at 50.7 per cent.

The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow 28.6 per cent over the projection period, from 1.88 million to 2.41 million. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest (40.2 per cent) from 1.01 million in 2018 to 1.41 million in 2046. Most other Eastern Ontario census divisions are also projected to grow, but below the provincial average, with growth ranging from 1.8 per cent in Prince Edward to 22.9 per cent in Frontenac.

The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.68 million in 2018 to 2.10 million in 2046, an increase of 24.7 per cent. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario vary, with Middlesex and Essex growing fastest (36.2 and 30.6 per cent respectively). The population of Chatham-Kent is projected to remain relatively stable over the 2018–2046 period.

The population of Northern Ontario is projected to be relatively stable over the projection horizon, with a slight increase of 2.3 per cent, from 809,000 in 2018 to 828,000 by 2046. Within the North, the Northeast is projected to see population growth of 11,000 or 2.0 per cent, from 567,000 to 579,000. The Northwest is projected to experience growth of 7,000 or 2.9 per cent, from 242,000 to 249,000.

In the past, Northern Ontario’s positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration. However, while the North has recently seen net migration gains, its natural increase has turned negative.

Table A: Population Shares of Ontario Regions, 1986 to 2046 Share of Ontario Population (%) 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 GTA 41.4 43.0 45.8 47.8 49.1 50.5 51.8 Central 21.8 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.4 21.2 East 14.0 13.8 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.2 Southwest 14.1 13.4 12.6 11.7 11.4 11.0 10.6 Northeast 6.2 5.4 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 Northwest 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 Sources: Statistics Canada, 1986–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Regional age structure

All regions are projected to see a continuing shift to an older age structure. The largest shifts in age structure are projected to take place in census divisions, many in northern and rural areas, where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure, a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase. The Northeast is projected to remain the region with the oldest age structure.

In 2018, the share of seniors aged 65 and over in regional population ranged from a low of 14.8 per cent in the GTA to a high of 21.1 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it ranged from 13.2 per cent in Peel to 33.3 per cent in Haliburton.

By 2046, the share of seniors in regions is projected to range from 20.8 per cent in the GTA to 29.2 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it is projected to range from 19.3 per cent in Peel to 44.0 per cent in Haliburton.

Even as the share of seniors in census divisions located in and around the suburban GTA is projected to remain lower than the provincial average, the increase in the number of seniors in this area will be the most significant.

The number of seniors is projected grow by about 132 per cent in the suburban GTA . Conversely, the number of seniors grows most slowly (less than 40 per cent) in Algoma, Cochrane, Thunder Bay, Rainy River and Timiskaming.

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to decline in the North, but to increase in the rest of Ontario over the projection period. However, by 2046 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. In 2018, the highest share of children among regions was in the Northwest at 16.8 per cent; the Northeast had the lowest share at 14.7 per cent. By 2046, the Northeast is projected to remain the region with the lowest share of children at 14.0 per cent while the highest share is projected to be found in the Northwest at 16.3 per cent.

Most GTA census divisions, along with Dufferin, are projected to record strong growth in the number of children aged 0–14 over the 2018–2046 period, with Peel seeing the most growth at 56 per cent. Conversely, the majority of rural and northern census divisions are projected to have significantly fewer children by 2046, with the largest declines in the North. However, most census divisions are projected to see only a slight decrease in the share of children in their population. In 2018, the highest share of children was found in Kenora at 21.7 per cent and the lowest share in Haliburton at 9.4 per cent. By 2046, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 21.1 per cent while Haliburton is projected to continue to have the lowest at 8.2 per cent.

The share of population aged 15–64, which ranged from 64.1 per cent in the Northeast to 69.3 per cent in the GTA in 2018, is projected to decline over the 2018–2046 period in every region. The share of this age group is projected to range from 56.8 per cent of population in the Northeast to 64.4 per cent in the GTA by 2046.

While the share of population aged 15–64 is projected to fall in every census division of the province, the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in 32 of the 49 census divisions, mainly in the GTA , Central Ontario and urban areas of the East and the Southwest. The highest share of people aged 15–64 in 2018 was in Toronto (70.8 per cent) while the lowest was in Prince Edward (57.3 per cent). By 2046, the highest shares are projected to be found Peel, Waterloo, Ottawa, and Toronto (highest at 67.3 per cent). Prince Edward, Haliburton and Northumberland are projected to have shares of people aged 15–64 below 50 per cent by the end of the projection period.

Methodology and Assumptions

Projections methodology

The methodology used in Ministry of Finance long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2018) distributed by age and sex.

A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, net emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration) are also generated and added to the population cohorts to obtain the population of the subsequent year, by age and sex.

This methodology is followed for each of the 49 census divisions. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations.

It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, founded on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the long-term and the most recent trends of these components, as well as expectations of future direction. For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome.

Base population

This report includes demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that use population estimates based on the 2016 Census adjusted for net undercoverage. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada’s preliminary July 1, 2018 postcensal population estimates as a base.

As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.

Fertility

The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on four parameters1 to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate ( TFR ), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. All parameters used are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends.

Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are postponing births to their 30s and early 40s. The decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Over the past 20 years, teenagers and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates.

Fertility rates of women in their 30s and older, which were rising moderately over the 1990s and more rapidly over most of the 2000s, have shown a slower pace of increase in the most recent years. These are the same cohorts of women who postponed births during their 20s and are now having children in their 30s and early 40s.

Ontario’s total fertility rate ( TFR ), which stood at 3.8 children per woman around 1960, fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in 1972. Over the rest of the 1970s, the TFR fell rapidly toward the 1.50–1.65 range where it has been hovering ever since. The latest data available (2016) show a TFR of 1.52.

Fertility rates are unlikely to return to the highs observed in the 1950s and early 1960s. Rather, it is believed that relatively small fluctuations around values below the replacement level are more likely.

In the reference scenario, the TFR is assumed to increase slightly from 1.52 to 1.55 children per woman as younger women’s fertility rates stabilize while those of older women continue to gradually increase.

In the low-growth scenario, fertility is assumed to decline gradually until the TFR reaches 1.30 children per woman at the end of the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the TFR increases gradually to 1.80 children per woman by the end of the period.

[1] Based on the Pearsonian approach. See Glossary.

Fertility assumptions at the census division level

The most recent data for census divisions (2016) shows that TFRs range from a high of 2.48 in Kenora to a low of 1.31 in Toronto. The projected parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain regional differences. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions at the census division level evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes of these parameters at the Ontario level.

Mortality

The population of Ontario has one of the highest of life expectancies in Canada and among the countries of the developed world. The current (2016) life expectancy at birth is 84.4 years for Ontario females and 80.4 years for Ontario males. Average gains in life expectancy over the past two decades have been in the order of 0.16 years per annum for females and 0.23 years for males.

Up to the mid-1990s, annual gains in life expectancy were getting somewhat smaller and it was expected that future improvements would continue at this slowing pace. Since then and until recently, the pace of annual gains in life expectancy picked up and the progression of life expectancy had a more linear trajectory. However, in recent years life expectancy has been stagnant in Canada, mostly due to an increase in opioid-related deaths, but also as a result of higher death rates from dementia and Parkinson’s disease. It is assumed that the impact of opioid-related deaths on mortality will taper off gradually, allowing continuing increases of the average lifespan due to other factors.

The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts of corresponding ages. Assumptions of future age-specific death rates are derived2 from trends observed over the 1971–2016 period related to the pace of improvement in overall life expectancy and the age patterns of mortality.

Under the mortality assumptions for each of the three scenarios, male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than that of females. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains than females. Thus, the overall gap between male and female life expectancy has gradually shrunk and is projected to continue to do so. Furthermore, reflecting the current trends, future gains in life expectancy are modelled to be concentrated at older ages and to be smaller for infants.

The three scenarios for Ontario all reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in the average duration of life. However, life expectancy is assumed to increase at a diminishing rate over the projections period.

In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario is projected to continue increasing at rates slightly lower than the average observed over the last two decades, with the pace of increase gradually diminishing over the projection period. By 2046, life expectancy is projected to reach 86.0 years for males and 88.5 years for females. This means total life expectancy gains of 5.6 years for males and 4.1 years for females between 2016 and 2046.

In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 84.5 years for males and 87.2 years for females by 2046. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 87.7 and 90.0 years in 2046 for males and females respectively.

[2] Following the Lee-Carter model. See Glossary.

Table B: Life Expectancy in Ontario, 1986 to 2046 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 Males at birth 73.7 75.9 78.5 80.4 82.4 84.3 86.0 Males at age 65 14.9 16.1 18.0 19.6 21.1 22.5 23.8 Females at birth 80.0 81.2 83.0 84.4 85.8 87.2 88.5 Females at age 65 19.2 19.8 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.5 25.6 Sources: Statistics Canada, 1986–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Mortality assumptions at the census division level

At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division’s age structure over the most recent six years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division.

An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. For this reason, the most recent three-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period.

Components of net migration

The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration.

Immigration

Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. The federal Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship sets the national target and target-range for the level of immigration to be achieved over the following year(s). For the calendar year 2019, the target is set at 330,800, with a plan for 341,000 in 2020 and 350,000 in 2021. This is a significant increase from 2014, when the target range was 240,000 to 265,000.

Over the past few years, the share of immigrants to Canada settling in Ontario has been increasing, from 36.8 per cent in calendar year 2014 to 42.8 per cent in 2018. These higher shares are projected to continue in the projections. For the last year of the current federal immigration plan (2021), the projection assumption is for Ontario to account for 42.4% of national immigration.

In the reference scenario, the assumed long-term immigration rate is set at 0.95 per cent, starting at 1.00 per cent for the first three years and gradually reaching the long-term rate in 2025-26. The number of immigrants increases over time as population grows, such that annual immigration is projected to rise from 136,600 in 2018–19 to 185,900 by 2045–46, in tandem with overall population growth.

The long-term immigration rate is set at 0.75 per cent in the low-growth scenario, resulting in relatively stable immigration levels, hovering between 115,000 and 129,000. In the high-growth scenario, the long-term rate of immigration is set at 1.15 per cent, resulting in immigration levels rising strongly, from 158,000 in 2018–19 to 256,000 by 2045–46.

Immigration assumptions at the census division level

Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the trends observed in the distribution of immigrants by census division over the recent past. These shares evolve throughout the projection period following established trends. The average age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants observed over the past five years is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection period. Nearly 90 per cent of immigrants coming to Ontario in 2017–18 were aged 0–44.

Emigration

Total emigration is defined as the gross flow of international emigration, minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of Ontarians temporarily abroad. The level of total emigration from Ontario averaged 25,100 over the past three years.

The number of emigrants is difficult to estimate with a high degree of accuracy because of incomplete information. Statistics Canada publishes annual estimates of these flows based on a variety of sources, such as administrative data files and immigration statistics published by agencies of foreign countries.

In the reference scenario, the average emigration rates by age and sex for each census division observed over the past five years are used to model the projected number of people emigrating annually from each census division. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. For Ontario as a whole, this results in the number of emigrants increasing gradually over the projection period to reach 32,400 by 2045–46.

In the low-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are increased by 30 per cent, making them 130 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in emigration levels reaching 36,400 by 2045–46.

In the high-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are reduced by 30 per cent, making them equivalent to 70 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in the number of emigrants reaching 26,000 by 2045–46.

Non-permanent residents

Statistics Canada estimates that there were about 497,500 non-permanent residents ( NPRs : e.g., foreign students, temporary foreign workers, refugee claimants) living in Ontario on July 1, 2018. In 2017–18, the number of NPRs rose by 85,700 in Ontario, the largest increase in 29 years. These foreign residents are part of the base population since they are counted in the Census and are included the components of population change.

The year-to-year change in their total number must be accounted for as a component of population growth in the projections. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations and the transient nature of this group.

Over the past 30 years, Ontario has gained on average 11,500 non-permanent residents annually. As a proportion of total population, the corresponding rate was 0.088 per cent on average each year. The reference scenario reflects long-terms trends in the annual change in the number of NPRs by setting the long-term yearly gain at 0.08 per cent of population. In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the long-term annual change in the stock of NPRs is set at 0.056 and 0.104 per cent of population respectively, representing both a 30 per cent range above and below the reference scenario. The long-term assumptions for each scenario are reached after a transition period of seven years, moderating from the relatively high net gains observed recently. The assumed increase in the number of non-permanent resident in for the first two projected years is set at 80,000 in the reference scenario, 72,000 in the low-growth scenario, and 88,000 in the high-growth scenario.

Non-permanent resident assumptions at the census division level

Projected shares of non-permanent residents for each census division, as well as their distribution by age and sex, are based on the estimates on July 1, 2018. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.

Interprovincial migration

Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. This pattern is usually closely tied to economic cycles.

Over the past 30 years, net interprovincial migration has not contributed to Ontario’s population growth, with net losses averaging about 2,500 people per year. Between 2003 and 2015, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was negative, largely due to net outflows to Alberta. However, the most recent data shows a reversal of the out-migration trends.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration for Ontario reflects recent trends in the short term. It is set at 18,000 for 2018–19, 13,500 for 2019–20, and gradually returning to long-term historical values by 2022–23 with a net of zero and then remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.

In the low-growth scenario, net interprovincial migration for Ontario is set at 15,300 for 2018–19, 10,200 for 2019–20, and gradually falling to a net outflow of 5,000 from 2022–23 onwards. In the high-growth scenario, a net annual inflow of 20,700 people is assumed for 2018–19, 16,800 for 2019–20, followed by a gradual decrease to a net inflow of 5,000 annually starting in 2022–23.

The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively. The corresponding annual out-flows are 67,500, 65,000 and 62,500.

Interprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

Each census division’s share of Ontario inflow and outflow of interprovincial migrants over the last five years is applied to projected flows for the province and held constant throughout the projection period.

Intraprovincial migration

At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population from one census division to another within the province, is a significant component of population growth. This component affects population growth only at the census division level.

The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 430,000 range over the past 20 years. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants decreases slowly from 414,000 in 2018–19 to 402,000 in 2045–46. This decrease over time reflects population aging, as older people have a lower propensity to move. The resulting rate of intraprovincial migration in Ontario declines slightly over the projection period, from 2.9 per cent in 2018–19 to 2.1 per cent by 2045–46.

Intraprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

The projected number of people, by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using the origin-destination migration rates by age for each census division over the past five years. Because migration rates by age group are different for each census division and because different age groups have different origin-destination behaviours, the methodology provides a powerful tool to project movers based on observed age and origin-destination migration patterns. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions.

The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.

Glossary

Baby boom generation People born during the period following World War II, 1946 to 1965, marked by a significant increase in fertility rates and in the number of births. Baby boom echo generation People born during the period 1972 to 1992. Children of baby boomers. Cohort Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given period, which can be a year. For example, the birth cohort of 1966 consists of the number of persons who were born in 1966. GTA The Greater Toronto Area, comprised of the census divisions of Toronto, Durham, Halton, Peel and York. International migration Movement of population between Ontario and a foreign country. International migration includes immigrants, emigrants and non-permanent residents. Net international migration is the difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving the province from foreign countries. Interprovincial migration Movement of population between Ontario and the rest of Canada. Net interprovincial migration is the difference between the number of people entering Ontario from the rest of Canada and the number of people leaving Ontario for elsewhere in Canada. Intraprovincial migration Movement of population between the 49 census divisions within Ontario. Net intraprovincial migration for a given census division is the difference between the number of people moving from the rest of Ontario to this census division and the number of people leaving for elsewhere in the province. Lee-Carter method A method of mortality projection proposed by Lee and Carter used to generate annual age-sex specific mortality rates. See Lee, Ronald D., and Carter, Lawrence, 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, no 419 (September):659-71. Life expectancy A statistical measure derived from the average number of years of life remaining for a person at a specific age if that person would experience during his/her life the age-specific mortality rates observed in a given year. Median age The median age is the age at which exactly one half of the population is older and the other half is younger. This measure is often used to compare age structures between jurisdictions. Natural increase The number of births minus the number of deaths. Net migration Difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving a given area. This includes all the migration components included in net international migration, net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration (for sub-provincial jurisdictions). Non-permanent residents Foreign citizens living in Ontario (e.g., foreign students, temporary workers or refugee claimants). Pearsonian curve Parametric model used to distribute estimated fertility rates by age of mothers. The Pearsonian curve has four parameters. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate, reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at fertility, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. Population aging An expression used to describe shifts in the age distribution of the population toward more people of older ages. One indicator of population aging is an increasing share of seniors (ages 65+) in the population. Population estimates Measures of current and historical resident population derived using Census and administrative data. Total fertility rate The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. Indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they had fertility rates identical to those of the year considered.

Statistical Tables

Table 1 Historical and projected population for Ontario under three scenarios, 2011–2046

Table 2 Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2011–2046 (reference, low and high scenarios)

Table 3 Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2011–2046 (reference, low and high scenarios)

Table 4 Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario

Table 5 Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years — reference scenario

Table 6 Ontario population by age, 2018–2046 — reference scenario

Table 7 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group, 2018–2046 — reference scenario

Table 8 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group,

2018–2046 — low scenario

Table 9 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group,

2018–2046 — high scenario

Table 10 Greater Toronto Area and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2018–2046 — reference scenario

Table 11 Central Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2018–2046 — reference scenario

Table 12 Eastern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2018–2046 — reference scenario

Table 13 Southwestern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2018–2046 — reference scenario

Table 14 Northeastern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2018–2046 — reference scenario

Table 15 Northwestern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2018–2046 — reference scenario