Some bargain hunters are moving in this morning, and that’s pushing stocks and the dollar higher. But let’s not kid ourselves, there’s still a fair amount of panic out there.

About “now seems the appropriate time to start panicking” about Brexit, says Standard Bank G-10 strategist Steve Barrow in a note, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

That’s all down to those pesky opinion polls, which keep shifting toward a vote for the U.K. to leave the EU, which means Standard and other banks just can’t relax about this whole thing.

“On the financial markets, there is nothing they can do; it will just hit them,” Adam Posen, president at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told the New York Times.

What can investors do? Well wring your hands, or be ready to move in on the fear, says our call of the day. Sure, U.S. stocks will get hit if there’s a Brexit mess — but that’s the moment to start buying. More on that below.

Thank goodness some distraction is on the way, with the Fed meeting concluding today. Expect lots of people to zero in on Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s thinking on recent data and, of course, anything she says on Brexit. The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting is up next, ending Thursday.

Mocking the central bankers, DoubleLine Capital’s doomster Jeffrey Gundlach told investors last night that Yellen and others are losing control, which is driving investors into bonds. He predicts a “rocky ride” this summer.

Our chart of the day has mapped out what would cause U.S. stocks to drop 30%. And there’s not a Brexit in sight on that one. Carry on.

Key market gauges

Futures on the Dow US:YMM6 and the S&P US:ESM6 are tracking global stocks higher. Oil prices CLN26, dropped to multiweek lows after API data pointed to rising oil supplies. In Asia ADOW, +0.33% , the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +2.06% rose 1.6% even after MSCI’s surprise move not to include mainland shares in its indexes. European stocks SXXP, -0.66% are on the rise.

The yen USDJPY, -0.01% is easing back, and the pound GBPUSD, +0.02% is up a little. Gold US:GCN6 is slightly lower.

The call

Start building your courage ahead of June 23 — the date of the U.K.’s EU membership referendum. Cracked Market’s Jani Ziedins says U.S. investors can expect a Brexit vote to “send the S&P 500 down a few percent,” because that outcome still isn’t priced in.

“But this will be a buyable dip for those who have the courage to be greedy when others are fearful,” says Ziedins. “A week or two after the Brexit vote, many of the unknowns will have been ironed out, and we will move forward with a plan.”

He notes that Norway and Switzerland get along quite OK without EU membership. Plus, Britain has never adopted the euro, so there’s hardly a Grexit-style mess to be faced like we did last year.

The “best profit opportunities come from trading against an emotional crowd,” and there’s no doubt the VIX surging above 20 reflects that. We’re closer to a “buy-point than a prudent place to sell defensively,” he says.

David Merkel, writing for the Aleph Blog also took a good long look at the “Brexit Boogeyman,” and was equally sanguine: “If Brexit occurs, the U.K. will negotiate some agreement that is mutually beneficial to the U.K. and the EU, and most things will go on as they do today,” he says.

Will it be so sanguine? Check out what will happen after the vote in:Everything you wanted to know about Brexit, but were afraid to ask

The chart

Alain Bokobza and the global asset allocation team at Societe Generale have mapped out what they think would trigger a 10% to 30% correction for U.S. stocks, using this pair of charts:

Société Générale

The chart on the left reflects where the current U.S. equity risk premium (ERP) sits, at just under 4%. ERP refers to the excess return that investing in stocks provides, over the return from a risk-free investment such as Treasury bonds. The chart on the right shows that U.S. stocks based on the cost of capital are still cheap.

So, Bokobza says, if the equity-risk premium were to fall 1-standard deviation below the long-term average (long-term average is 3.9%, ERP at 2.95% is 1-standard deviation below), then that double-digit stock drop becomes possible in the subsequent 12 months. Flat earnings growth in 2017/2018 and U.S. Treasury yield of 2.25% would make for pricey stocks, he says.

SocGen bases this on historical evidence, saying that outside of 2000-2003, ERP falling below 2.9% has usually triggered pullbacks of 10% to 30% over the next year.

The buzz

The FDA has warned Whole Foods US:WFM that it has until the end of June to fix “serious violations” discovered by regulators during a February inspection of a Massachusetts plant. For its part, Whole Foods said it has fixed the problems and doesn’t understand why that hasn’t been acknowledged in the latest FDA letter.

Credit Suisse says Apple’s AAPL, -3.17% iPhone7 will be overshadowed by an iPhone8 “super cycle” late next year.

Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY, -1.33% has bought One Kings Lane for a fraction of the nearly $1 billion the online furnishing retailer was valued at two years ago.

After Microsoft’s MSFT, -1.24% deal for LinkedIn US:LNKD , all eyes are turning to Twitter, which some say is in the bull's-eye as the next buyout target.

A nightmare has unfolded at Disney’s DIS, -1.22% Walt Disney World Resort DIS, -1.22% in Orlando. On Tuesday night, a toddler was dragged into a lake by an alligator near Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa in Bay Lake as his parents fought desperately to save him.

The economy

Producer prices rose 0.4% in May, and the Empire State index rebounded to 6.0 from a negative 9 reading in May. Industrial production and capacity utilization are coming at 9:15 a.m.

The Fed will release the dot plot, showing where each central bank governors and regional bank presidents project interest rates, along with a policy statement and new economist forecasts at 2 p.m. That’s followed by a news conference with Chairwoman Janet Yellen at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what’s expected from that meeting.

The stat

$61.4 billion — That’s how much the 55% of American workers who didn’t take all their vacation essentially handed back to their employers last year. More on that here.

The quote

Stay for the door prize Andy Holt

“Instead of focusing on the weapon that was used, there should be a focus on radical Islam. The focus should not be on the weapon, it should be on the individual’s heart and the cowardly acts that he performed.” — Tennessee Republican state Rep. Andy Holt, defending his decision to give a door prize of an AR-15 — the same rifle used in the Orlando nightclub massacre — at a coming hogfest and turkey shoot. He now says he’ll give away two.

On that note:

Random reads

ISIS killer of French policeman and his partner live-streamed it on Facebook. He also threatened the Euro 2016 soccer championship.

Coffee does not cause cancer. That proclamation is expected from WHO today.

1,000 fans to be randomly picked for memorial service of wrestling star Chyna

Wedding envy, meet the buff, Spartan gladiator groomsmen.

Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross says he’s backing Trump because the U.S. needs a more radical, new approach to government

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