The Times report says that this email was sent by music producer Rob Goldstone to Trump Jr. in an effort to arrange a June 2016 meeting between Trump Jr. and Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya. Goldstone represents a Russian pop star whose father was a business partner of President Trump in bringing the Miss Universe pageant to Moscow several years ago. The pop star asked Goldstone to arrange the meeting between Trump Jr. and Veselnitskaya. Trump Jr. has confirmed that he, along with Jared Kushner (the president’s son-in-law) and Paul Manafort (then the Trump campaign chairman), agreed to the meeting on the understanding that Veselnitskaya would provide damaging information on Hillary Clinton — but that he didn’t know her “name.”

The Times reported that the email, “as described to The New York Times by the three people, indicates that the Russian government was the source of the potentially damaging information.” But the Times also noted that the email does not indicate anything about the broader effort by Russia to tip the 2016 election to Trump, an effort that our intelligence agencies have determined took place.

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The Senate intel committee’s investigators are looking into this effort by Russia — and into whether the Trump campaign colluded with it — and will now seek this email from Goldstone to Trump Jr. as evidence, if Democrats have their way.

“Committee Democrats will be seeking it directly from anybody who might have a copy,” the senior aide to the Democratic member of the committee emailed me today.

“This is the first time we’ve seen a senior member of the Trump campaign have contact with the Russians, specifically to get damaging information about Clinton,” the aide also said. “Both Democrats and Republicans on the Committee have already said that we expect to take Don Jr. up on his offer to speak with the Committee. As part of invitations to speak to the Committee, witnesses are usually expected to turn over copies of relevant documents and communications in their possession — such as the email reported by the New York Times, if it exists.”

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Don’t rush to judgment on the email

We should not rush to judgment about the contents of this email. While many on Twitter excitedly characterized it as a “smoking gun,” with some describing the meaning of the email’s contents with great certainty, we have not seen the email itself and have not been told what any of the text of it says. We only know how it has been characterized by three anonymous sources (with indeterminate motives) who spoke to the Times. And the Times’s wording is somewhat vague. The notion that the information promised to Trump Jr. “was part of a Russian government effort to aid his father’s candidacy” and that the Russian government was the “source” of this information doesn’t tell us whether the Russian lawyer was acting as an agent of the Russian government in bringing this information to the Trump campaign, or that Trump Jr. might have reasonably concluded that to be the case. It’s all very murky.

To be clear, the email might indeed generally point in this direction. I’m just saying that we don’t yet know what it indicates or what its precise significance will prove to be. Indeed, this is why the email itself is of great interest. Notably, the Times also reports that Goldstone (purportedly the email’s author) at first denied that the Russian government was involved in the affair, but then couldn’t be reached for comment once the Times obtained the email (which seemingly contradicts that assertion). It should also be noted that it might have been unlawful if Trump Jr. knowingly accepted help in influencing the election from a Russian national, even if she were not operating for Moscow.

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We need to see the email itself, or at least learn more about it. And if Democrats have their way, we just might.

* TRUMP JR. VOWED TO HELP THE COMMITTEE: In light of all of this, recall this tweet from Trump Jr. yesterday about the Senate Intelligence Committee probe:

So presumably he’ll volunteer the email when asked.

* GOP PLAN COULD CAUSE REAL ‘DEATH SPIRAL’: GOP leaders are embracing an amendment by Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) under which states could allow insurers to offer skimpy plans alongside Obamacare-compliant ones. But Politico reports:

Health care finance experts warn it could further destabilize the troubled Obamacare marketplaces, potentially causing them to collapse as premiums skyrocket and healthier customers flee … healthy people who aren’t worried about running up big medical bills could opt for cheap, skimpy plans that potentially wouldn’t cover big-ticket items like hospitalizations and treatment for mental health issues. Those with significant health problems, meanwhile, would likely stay in plans that meet Obamacare’s coverage rules. That would make the risk pool inherently unbalanced, leading to much higher premiums for those individuals.

It’s odd that Trump and Republicans, after constantly claiming that the Affordable Care Act is imploding, would embrace a plan that would actually bring that about, isn’t it?

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* CNN SAYS REPEAL IS ‘ON VERGE OF COLLAPSE’: CNN reports that the Senate GOP repeal effort is collapsing, with some GOP senators wondering out loud whether it is dead:

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One aide to a Republican senator closely involved in health care negotiations said Senate Republicans were simply not “any closer” than they were before recess, and that for now, it was hard to see the path to 50 “yes” votes. “It’s easy to get to 40 or 42 yes’s,” the aide said. “Getting to 50? I don’t know.”

GOP senators are set to meet for a caucus lunch today, where Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will put on the hard sell, so we’ll know more after that.

* REPUBLICANS ARE AT LEAST SEVEN VOTES SHORT: FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. reports that nine GOP senators currently oppose the health bill, though two (Jerry Moran of Kansas and John Hoeven of North Dakota) will likely vote yes:

If this process were going well for Republicans, by now some of the hesitant members would have proposed changes to the bill, McConnell would have said he is adopting those changes, and these members would say they were voting for the bill, pending those changes. That full cycle has not happened yet with any of these nine members.

Things can change very suddenly in the murky, byzantine world otherwise known as the Senate, but the bill appears to be in real trouble, for now anyway.

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* COLLINS SKEPTICAL OF CHANGES TO BILL: The Wall Street Journal reports that GOP leaders are likely to introduce a revised bill this week and vote on it next week. But:

GOP leaders … are likely to insert $45 billion in funding to fight the opioid epidemic, but Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine), said in response, “That’s helpful, but it’s by no means sufficient.” Like several other Republican senators, Ms. Collins is concerned about the bill’s proposed cuts to Medicaid, and it isn’t clear that a revised version would address those concerns.

The revised bill would not put a serious dent in the human toll that the Medicaid cuts would inflict, so let’s hope this holds.

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* UNINSURED RATE TICKS UP: Gallup finds that the uninsured rate has edged up slightly, from 10.9 percent to 11.7 percent, the first time it has risen since 2013. There had been a steady decline until now:

Several marketplace factors could be contributing to the uptick in the uninsured rate … Rising insurance premiums could be causing some Americans to forgo insurance, especially those who fail to qualify for federal subsidies. Furthermore, some insurance companies are leaving the ACA marketplace, and the lack of competition could be driving up the cost of plans for consumers. Uncertainty surrounding the healthcare law also may be driving the increase.

In other words, Trump/GOP sabotage is partly to blame. Luckily, the uninsured rate overall remains 6.3 points lower than in 2013. But there’s still a decent chance that Republicans will undo this.

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* SCOTT WALKER HAS A CHALLENGER: Andy Gronik, who built a consulting business and runs a political nonprofit, today will enter the race to challenge Milwaukee’s GOP governor, Scott Walker:

Gronik, a political newcomer who called himself a “progressive businessperson,” is the most prominent Democrat yet to get into the race and could tap his personal wealth to help spread his message. Gronik, 60, told AP in an exclusive interview that as governor he would fight to restore collective bargaining rights to public workers lost under Walker. He also said he would … accept federal money Walker rejected to help pay for health insurance for more poor people.

There are three dozen gubernatorial contests in 2018, many for seats held by the GOP, with great consequence for the Medicaid expansion, climate change and redistricting in the next decade.

* RUSSIAN LAWYER SPEAKS: In an interview with NBC’s “Today” show, Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya says she has no connections to the Russian government. But she adds this about the meeting:

“It’s quite possible that maybe they were looking for such information. They wanted it so badly.”