The more bruising clashes I get into about what Bitcoin and Bitcoiners should do, the more comfort I take in cold, dispassionate factual predictions. So here are mine, as of right now, 2 am, Wed June 21, 2017.

[Update — short version: Segwit2x deploys fast, preventing BIP 148’s August 1 chain split; segwit activates by August; Segwit2x’s contentious 2x hard fork happens around November; the old chain fades and the new forked 2x chain becomes Bitcoin; Core resists that and faces an uncertain fate.]

First and most obviously, I predict that at least some of these predictions will be completely wrong, because Bitcoin. By June 27: Segwit2x “NYA” (text in coinbase) signaling reaches not just 80%, but 90+% of hashrate. The Segwit2x code, currently alpha, will undergo no further major changes: its BIP 91 segwit activation logic, “3 months after segwit” HF activation logic, and 2x HF spec (8M weight = 2MB size) will all stay basically as they are now. Ahead of July 21 (Segwit2x production target date): 90+% of miners begin running that code, properly signaling Segwit2x support on BIP 9 version bit 4. By July 25: Segwit2x’s accelerated (2.33-day-period) BIP 91 logic locks in (bit 4). A pivotal moment, since Segwit2x lock-in guarantees segwit activation! (Within a month or so — but see #9 below.) Plus… By July 27: Exactly 336 blocks after lock-in, Segwit2x activates, and starts orphaning non-bit-1-signaling blocks. This orphaning is key because it makes BIP 148 a no-op, since all BIP 148 nodes do is the same orphaning except starting August 1. So:

- Segwit2x lock-in before ~July 28, implies

- Segwit2x activation (orphaning) before August 1, which implies

- BIP 148 becomes a no-op, which implies

- No chain split on August 1!

So timely Segwit2x lock-in will be a double-whammy of good news: segwit coming, plus no August 1 chain split. Chaos averted! The market will love it: BTC +20% vs, eg, ETH. Locking in Segwit2x will also mean Bitmain’s “UAHF” contingency plan won’t be needed, btw. Just another experimental munition never fired in anger. But meanwhile another crucial indirect consequence: the moment Segwit2x locks in, making segwit inevitable, the hordes of Segwit2x/NYA/hard fork/miner haters will come running out of the woodwork to pile their “NOHF” scorn and venom on the embedded hard fork code and its various imperfections. OK hang on I lost my “cold factual predictions” vibe there… All I mean is that those, like the majority of Core devs, who in all sincerity think this whole NYA enterprise is somewhere between an insult and a farce, are unlikely to spill their critiques of the hard fork code before this lock-in date. Why would they? They’re getting segwit! Better to bite their tongues till it’s locked in. You thought the debate was ugly now, just you wait till the floodgates open once segwit(2x) locks in. ~July 28: Right around this date we’re due for a standard 2-week difficulty adjustment (segwit signaling period), and I predict that to the surprise of many, segwit will achieve 95% lock-in! That’s right: “NYA” signaling + Segwit2x HF code readiness will have given miners enough confidence to start signaling bit 1 en masse early enough to just activate segwit the old way. In this scenario, BIP 91 turns out to be unnecessary for segwit activation; but it probably still plays a crucial role by kicking off orphaning in time for BIP 148's August 1 deadline. (Just locking in segwit before August 1 wouldn’t be enough to prevent a split!)

The reaction to lock-in will be as you’d expect: Confetti! A parade! (Amidst the ongoing NOHF vitriol…) ~August 10: Exactly 2016 blocks (~2 weeks) after segwit locks in, whenever that is, it will activate and actual segwit transactions will begin. More festivities! Maybe some minor teething problems but segwit will basically be a success. ~November 10: Around this date — three (more) nasty, acrimonious months after segwit (not Segwit2x!) activated — will be the Segwit2x scheduled hard fork. And then we’ll think we dodged a bullet in August, but in November we’ll learn it was a boomerang! Worse yet, unlike August 1, this schism is unavoidable. Some nodes — in particular, 95+% of miners, and most of the NY Agreement’s signatories — will doggedly follow through with the HF, ignoring the hailstorm of condemnation from Core & co, by leaving their Segwit2x deployments unchanged. But others will disable the HF (easy); and yet others will simply switch back to running Core, fully compatible with Segwit2x until the very moment of the HF. I just don’t see how we avoid some magnitude of chain split come November. Cue some serious backsliding from the late July relief. BTC -20% vs ETH & co, purple-faced Greg rants, unruffled Barry quips, “Bitcoin is dead” etc etc. Still, the majority of businesses and users, and the vast majority of hashrate, will go with what they see as the momentum, and hard-fork. Maybe the unforked, minority-hashrate, 1x chain will go off on its own, less significant route, as ETC did. Maybe it will adopt an urgent proof-of-work change; maybe even after it’s been 51%-pummeled by some fed-up miner. But no matter which of these cases plays out, when the vast majority of hashrate goes one way, then (as I’ve argued ad nauseam elsewhere) that — the forked 2x chain — will be the chain most of the world calls Bitcoin. And so by late November Bitcoin will emerge, with one chain (of any significance), with segwit (and thus ready for layer 2), with the temporary but welcome relief of doubled blocks, and above all with this terrible feud mostly behind it. That’s the good news. But what of Core? Who’s going to maintain the code that Bitcoin runs? Garzik and Belshe? Their subordinates? Hard to believe… Maybe some of the more pragmatic Core devs will deign to get involved. (Or more likely, ex-Core devs fed up with their leaders’ siege mentality.)

But I can’t really see it. I don’t see how this plays out without a big chunk of the current devs parting ways with the main chain. And much though I’ve criticized those devs’ judgement — their refusal to face the balance of power inherent in a PoW network, their complete failure to get segwit activated (before Barry & co stepped in) — that would be a truly tragic and unjust loss to the project, and to these people who’ve devoted years of their lives to this gift we all enjoy. C’mon Bitcoin, surprise me with a happier ending! The big picture is that even assuming this drama does get resolved, either the way I’m predicting here or somehow else, all this strife will take its toll, and the big winner will be Ethereum. Until it runs into its own major shitshow later this year… But that’s a story for another day.

I’m running low on energy to debate this stuff: I encourage you to make your own predictions instead! (They have a way of piercing through the noise, and for once in Bitcoin we have some concrete resolution dates ahead.) But I do welcome factual corrections — I’ve already gotten activation details wrong at various times…

And with that, I should really take a breather from this whole dead horse, and redirect some energy to more fruitful pursuits. Like Casper.