I've written a few times this year about Score-Adjusted Fenwick, which adjusts a team's shot differential (Fenwick) to account for score effects (the tendency of teams to go into a shell to protect a lead). This statistic is extremely important because of its close correlation with things like puck possession, offensive zone time, and generation of scoring chances -- if you know a team's shot differential and their goaltending skill, you know almost all of what you need to predict their future performance.

Of course, things change during the year as a result of injuries, trades, and other lineup changes. Using a larger sample size to minimize fluctuations is almost always better, but we do know that playoff predictions based on a team's last 30 games are more accurate than predictions based on their first 70 because of the impact of those in-season changes. So as we prepare for the playoffs, I'll present both the final Score-Adjusted Fenwick and the Score-Adjusted Fenwick since the trade deadline.

Team Final Score-Adjusted Fenwick Score-Adjusted Fenwick since trade deadline PIT 55.2 (1) 55.9 (2) DET 55.2 (2) 53.7 (4) STL 54.5 (3) 54.1 (3) LA 53.3 (4) 57.5 (1) CHI 52.8 (5) 53.5 (5) BOS 52.8 (6) 51.1 (10) SJ 52.8 (7) 50.8 (11) VAN 52.4 (8) 52.3 (8) PHI 51.3 (9) 49.6 (19) NJ 51.2 (10) 52.7 (7) WPG 50.7 (11) 50.2 (13) OTT 50.5 (12) 52.9 (6) COL 50.1 (13) 50.4 (12) DAL 49.9 (14) 48.3 (21) NYR 49.5 (15) 50.1 (16) FLA 49.4 (16) 49.6 (18) WSH 49.2 (17) 51.5 (9) PHX 49.0 (18) 47.9 (23) BUF 48.7 (19) 50.2 (14) ANA 48.5 (20) 50.1 (15) NYI 48.4 (21) 48.2 (22) CAR 48.1 (22) 47.3 (25) MTL 47.7 (23) 45.0 (28) TB 47.4 (24) 46.5 (27) EDM 47.4 (25) 47.3 (24) CGY 47.3 (26) 50.0 (17) TOR 47.2 (27) 43.6 (30) CBJ 47.1 (28) 46.8 (26) NSH 46.7 (29) 49.2 (20) MIN 44.3 (30) 43.7 (29)

Some things to note: