The Current Ratings

We’re back with part three of my ratings series focused on statewide executive offices. Today we look at Lieutenant Governors, who in most states, are elected on the same ticket as the Governor. However, in 18 states, the Lieutenant Governor is elected separately than the Governor (predominately southern states). Of those 18, 9 are holding elections this fall. So, it’s time to issue some race ratings for these elections:

Safe D: CA, RI, VT*

These are three of the bluest states in the nation and are not competitive this fall. It’s worth noting that Vermont is held by a Progressive (capital P) caucusing as a Democrat, hence the purple on the map above.

Tossup: NV

Nevada: Open (Hutchinson)

Another one of the very competitive executive row offices in Nevada is the position of Lt. Gov.. Former State Treasurer Kate Marshall is the Democratic nominee facing off against Republican State Senator Michael Roberson for this open seat vacated by Republican Mark Hutchinson. We have a little polling on this race, though not a lot, but the early returns look promising for Democrats. A Mellman Group poll in April had Marshall leading 40-27, while Gravis Marketing found Marhsall up on Roberson 45-36. There are still tons of undecideds in these polls but it seems that Democrats are in a good spot right now. Still Nevada is a state with generally quite close elections and tossup seems right until we get more information.

Lean R: GA, TX

Georgia: Open (Cagle)

The Peach State’s three term Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle ran for the big job (and failed masterfully), leaving this office open. Democrats are heavily contesting the Secretary of State’s office and Governorship, in addition to giving this office a good run. Republicans nominated State Senator, Geoff Duncan, to face Democrat Sarah Riggs Amico, a businesswoman. Georgia is still a red state, though 2018 may be the year Democrats break through. Polling shows this race close, with a recent Landmark Communications poll showing Duncan leading Riggs Amico just 48-46. This would normally indicate a tossup, but the state’s red hue makes me leave it Lean R.

Texas: Dan Patrick

If there’s one Lt. Gov. election that Democrats could really want to win, it’s this office. Unlike other Lt. Gov. offices, which are largely symbolic or are just used simply to break State Senate ties, the Lt. Gov. of Texas is arguably more powerful than the Governor and unquestionably the most powerful Lt. Gov. in the country. The Lt. Gov. of Texas essentially becomes the Leader of the Senate, in charge of assigning who gets to chair which committees and decides parliamentary procedure. Essentially, the fastest way to break up Republican control of Texas is simply to flip this office and then bog down the legislature. And interestingly, this may be the best statewide office in Texas that Democrats have a shot at. Incumbent Dan Patrick is pretty weak due to a number of issues, and Dems have businessman Mike Collier as their candidate. With Beto O’Rourke getting all the attention in Texas, this race is close according to people on both sides. While Republicans insist that Cruz leads in their polls by 8 (a fair bit higher than public polls), they also acknowledge that Patrick leads by under 5 points in those same polls. That indicates a high degree of vulnerability in this race. But like Georgia, a race that may be deemed a tossup in another state stays Lean R because Texas is still red. That said, this is a race to watch.

Safe R: AL, AR, OK

These are blood red states that will not be competitive this fall. Moving on.

Conclusion

As opposed to Secretary of State, Attorney General, or Governor, this office lacks the power and importance (except in the case of Texas). Still with one true battleground and the potential for one or two more, Lt. Gov. races are worth keeping your eyes on in November.