Ted was easily the biggest surprise hit of 2012, grossing over half a billion dollars with a very raunchy, original R rated comedy. It was very much sold on Family Guy’s legacy, including almost the entire voice cast in addition to Mark Wahlberg. That premise got it a $54M opening weekend, making it the highest opening ever for an original R rated comedy. Three years later, the sequel arrives, but perhaps with not enough to sell audiences on another adventure.

Instead of seeming bigger or better, Ted 2 is basically selling itself as “here’s more of the first movie” rather than changing anything. Despite this, the film had a pretty significant jump in budget; $85M as opposed to $50M for the first film. Look for Ted 2 to perform similarly to the first one, without a huge jump or drop in attendance. It also has worse reviews than the original, with a fairly poor 44% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Not to mention, McFarlane’s track record was less than perfect with last years A Million Ways to Die in the West making just $43M domestic. If Ted 2 does perform well, it will show that McFarlane’s brand is pretty much only for the Family Guy style humor and isn’t really interested in his other outings.

Also opening this week is the non-Mad version of Max, a canine marine who goes on adventures with the brother of his former partner. The trailers and commercials make this seem like something that would work better as a direct to DVD or TV movie from several years ago rather than a full fledged release. Still, these movies have a tough time finding an audience and slapping it right in the middle of a very crowded June was a decidedly poor choice. There is a chance this one could surprise due to the military aspect but don’t expect this one to open much above $10M or so.

Holdovers Jurassic World and Inside Out actually each have a decent shot at opening above Ted 2, something that several months ago may have seemed ridiculous. Jurassic is still tracking ahead of The Avengers, and if it continues down the path it is going will likely wind up with around $57M for the weekend. Inside Out will likely have a decent hold for a Pixar film given how strong the word of mouth is.

With those three films, this could be one of the highest total weekends with three films making over $50M in one weekend, the first time that has ever happened.

Predictions

1. Jurassic World – $58M

2. Ted 2 – $56M

3. Inside Out – $52M

4. Spy – $7.1M

5. Max – $5.1M

The Bottom Line

Given that the first Ted has such a strong reputation, this sequel should earn at least $60M this weekend given how strong the reputation of the first is. Not much of Max is expected this weekend but an opening of over $10M would make this a win.