I was all in on Denver last week against the Ravens, I even took their money line, and we all know how that turned out for me. This week they come in as 5.5 point home dogs against the Chiefs with the points total set at 54.5. Right now 62% of the money being bet is placed on KC, and 60% is placed on the over. Denver has an average scoring defense currently letting up 23.3 points per game (15th in league), this going against KC who has gotten off to a blazing start on the offensive side of the ball putting up 39.3 points per game (1st in League). However with as many points as KC scores they are letting in just as many as they have a bottom 5 scoring defense letting in 30.7 points per game (30th in League). This is a game where I love the over, it’s going to be points, points and more points just like I predicted for ATL vs CIN. I don’t expect KC to be able to keep up this incredible offensive pace and I do think they will come back down to earth eventually. But even a 10 point drop off puts them at 30 points a game. Denver should be able to move the ball and put up points tonight, and I expect Keenum to bounce back from a rough week last week.

Play: Over 54.5

Prediction: KC 30 Den 28

-Big Dog

Record YTD: 20-14 (+4.61 Units)