The 2016 season has been full of surprises early on, and no development has been more shocking than Matthew Stafford propelling himself into the MVP conversation and convincing some to use the “e” word.

There are countless “OMG HOW DID STAFFORD GET SO GOOD” pieces floating around the internet this week, and this will not be one of them. Excited a player I considered underrated for years now was making the leap, I went back and studied his last four games to see how Stafford had improved his game. And the truth is, he really hasn’t.

The results are different, sure. The Detroit Lions have won three straight to get to 4-3 and Stafford has thrown eight touchdowns and no interceptions during the winning streak. But Stafford’s process has remained largely the same; he just has a better team and better coaching staff around him, which makes this MVP talk so ridiculous.

Before we take a look at Stafford’s 2016 season, let’s remember what the general perception of Stafford was just a season ago. The consensus scouting report went a little something like this: Other-worldly arm, clutch, can make something out of nothing, skittish in the pocket, questionable decision-making and inconsistent mechanics which leads to inconsistent accuracy.

All of that still rings true in 2016, but under Lions offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford has been reigned in, almost to the point where he’s no longer the focal point of the offense, which is odd to say about a quarterback.

Nearly a quarter of his completions have not travelled past the line of scrimmage. According to the NFL’s in-house stat keeping, Stafford’s average completion has travelled only 5.3 yards in the air, tied for the lowest mark in the league. Detroit’s 6.37 yards-after-catch average puts Stafford at the top of the league, among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts.

The passing game, which relies heavily on quick screen passes, has been designed to get the ball out of Stafford’s hands quickly in order to mask his deficiencies as a passer. In the Lions’ offense, the burden of moving the ball down the field is on the receivers, and Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin and running back Theo Riddick (when healthy) have done an excellent job of doing that on designed throws that, really, any NFL quarterback should be able to make.

Relegating Stafford from chief play-maker to distributor has cut down on the inaccurate throws, skittishness in the pocket and back-breaking mental errors, but when he does have to hold onto the ball for a beat or two longer than normal, they pop right back up.

The most glaring of those issues is Stafford’s lack of poise in the pocket, which leads to his other issues. He just isn’t comfortable in the pocket and looks for an escape route as soon as he sense any hint of danger. That wouldn’t be a problem if his pocket movement was a bit more subtle. Instead of sliding in the pocket to find space, like you’ll see the best quarterbacks do, Stafford drops his eyes and takes off like a running back, which causes him to miss open receivers downfield.

Stafford is seven yards behind the line of scrimmage when Boldin is breaking open for a would-be touchdown, but he doesn’t see his receiver. When Stafford is able to pick his eyes up and find a receiver, he’s in no position to throw and has to fire off one of his trademark sidearm throws from an awkward platform. Stafford’s receivers have come under criticism for one of the league’s highest drop rates, but look at some of these “drops.” Detroit has had its fair share of drops (especially so in the Week 2 game against Tennessee) but poor ball placement is equally to blame on these plays. During this recent hot streak, Stafford has been lauded for his improved decision making. In reality, he’s just been tremendously lucky. He could have easily turned the ball over four times against the Redskins. He threw three passes directly into coverage, and got a lucky bounce on a fumble after holding the ball entirely too long.

Even his game-winning touchdown pass was a questionable decision that ended up working out thanks to (a) the rocket launcher attached to his right shoulder and (b) Washington LB Will Compton misplaying a pass he was in position to intercept.

Look at the field when Stafford lets go of the ball. He’s throwing right into traffic. Stafford admitted after the game he had no idea what would happen on the play:

“I cut it loose and I kind thought to myself, ‘We’re going either win the game or lose the game on this one,'” Stafford said. “It was a tight window.”

What would the narrative be if Washington is able to make any of those five plays? It certainly wouldn’t have anything to do with the MVP award.

Calvin Johnson’s retirement has been credited for Stafford’s supposed evolution. With Megatron no longer an option, Stafford has cut down on risky throws to covered receivers, the thinking goes. Again, this is simply not accurate. The 28-year-old is still making those risky throws — he’s just getting away with them.

You’ve probably also heard something to the effect of “Johnson’s absence has forced Stafford to go through his progressions, which has made him better.” It’s another lazy narrative with no evidence to back it up. The truth is, Stafford has always been willing to go through his progressions, he just doesn’t do it with the same efficiency as, say, a Drew Brees or Tom Brady. His lack of poise in the pocket can, at times, prevent him from doing so, but when he’s given a clean pocket, Stafford will exhaust all of his options. But the same was true in 2014.

Stafford is still the same good-but-not-great quarterback he’s been the last few years. That people are shocked he is capable of putting together this kind of season in a paint-by-numbers offense with genuine playmakers around him is proof he has been underrated for years. Now the opposite might be true.

The Lions success is as much a product of the receivers, the improvement of the offensive line and Cooter’s play-calling as it is play of the quarterback. Stafford is getting most of the credit for Detroit winning, but it’s been a total team effort.