It’s shortstop week, so let’s get the ball rolling on a player I was notoriously bearish on heading into the season. I wasn’t technically pessimistic about Xander Bogaerts, I just felt that he was being massively overvalued by fantasy owners. Oops, I was wrong. Though I did get some things right. He was a particularly difficult player to project as his batted ball profile completely changed from 2014 to 2015. So much so that he appeared to be a totally different player. Which version of Bogaerts would show up in 2016? It was anyone’s guess.

Let’s see how my 2016 Pod Projection compared to his actual results.

Projected Plate Appearances: 645 | Actual Plate Appearances: 719

Bogaerts accumulated the third most plate appearances in baseball. That he ended up recording nearly a third of his plate appearances from the two-hole helped, though it was primarily due to the elite Red Sox offense that easily scored the most runs in baseball. Remember that when a plate appearance projection is off, all the counting stat forecasts are going to be affected as well.

Projected BB%: 6.4% | Actual BB%: 8.1%

Bogaerts always displayed pretty good patience in the minors, but that patience disappeared in the Majors and his walk rate dropped even further in 2015. I correctly bet on a rebound, though not to the degree he enjoyed. His Swing% dropped back down, making it appear that 2015 was the fluke. This is probably the level he will settle in at for the time being.

Projected K%: 18.2% | Actual K%: 17.1%

As often happens with young players, Bogaerts’ strikeout rate spiked upon his promotion to the Majors in 2013 and 2014. He made better contact (and swung more) in 2015, resulting in a huge improvement in strikeout rate, but I figured that wasn’t sustainable. His strikeout rate did increase, but not by as much as I predicted, as he held onto most of his gains. Encouragingly, his SwStk% actually dropped to the lowest mark of his career.

Projected GB%/LD%/FB%: 48.5% / 21% / 30.5% | Actual GB%/LD%/FB%: 45.5% / 19.6% / 34.9%

This was a difficult projection given how his batted ball profile flip-flopped from 2014 to 2015. He went from a fly ball hitter to an extreme ground baller, and a pull hitter to one who uses all fields. Naturally, I figured some reversion toward his 2014 levels, but heavily weighing what he did in 2015 as a possible permanent shift in approach. He ended up settling in at essentially exactly halfway between his 2014 and 2015 numbers! In the last three years, he has now basically owned every point on the batted ball distribution scale! From fly baller, to ground baller, to league average. What does he do in 2017? Maybe hit all line drives or pop-ups?!

Projected BABIP: .325 | Actual BABIP: .335

Since it was so difficult to project his batted ball distribution, it made it problematic to forecast a BABIP. His 2015 batted ball distribution was a good one for BABIP (though certainly not .372 good), while his 2014 profile, not so much. My BABIP projection was close to his xBABIP from 2015, and although he beat that, it still tumbled from that inflated 2015 mark. It’s a surprise it remained that high though, as his IFFB% ranked second highest in baseball. That high pop-up rate is why his xBABIP sat at just .299, basically league average. Fenway Park surely helps, but it appears he has been benefiting from some sustained good fortune. Or he’s doing something not captured in the formula or the numbers we look at.

Projected HR/FB Ratio: 8.0% | Actual HR/FB Ratio: 11.4%

Bogaerts was supposed to possess above average power for a middle infielder, but his HR/FB rates heading into the season were rather disappointing. I think everyone figured he would increase his power output, but he actually more than doubled his HR/FB rate, and tripled his homer total, which I didn’t see coming. His fly ball exit velocity jumped three miles per hour, supporting his HR/FB rate surge, though it still remained below the league average. I don’t see further upside just yet, and will likely project some minor regression next year.

Projected Runs and RBI: 72 and 76 | Actual Runs and RBI: 115 and 89

Well damn, he crushed my runs and RBI projections! The added power, plus hitting in the two and three slots in the best lineup in baseball drove these totals. I think the RBI total is repeatable, depending on where he spends more of his time in the lineup, but obviously I wouldn’t bet on 115 runs scored again.

Projected SB: 6 | Actual SB: 13

The 10 steals from 2015 seemed to come out of nowhere and I definitely didn’t expect a repeat of double digits. So naturally, he laughed at me again and stole he more bases. With just average speed at best and no real history of a willingness to swipe bags, those steals could seemingly disappear at any time.

Below was my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison, and Bogaerts’ actual stats.

Xander Bogaerts 2016 Projections vs Actual System PA AB AVG HR R RBI SB BB% K% BABIP Pod 645 595 0.277 12 72 76 6 6.4% 18.2% 0.325 Steamer 638 584 0.293 16 78 78 7 6.5% 16.6% 0.333 ZiPS 651 615 0.289 12 74 73 8 5.5% 16.9% 0.334 Fans (43) 675 615 0.299 16 79 81 10 7.3% 15.9% 0.338 2016 Actual 719 652 0.294 21 115 89 13 8.1% 17.1% 0.335

We were all low on the plate appearances, of course, and no one came close to hitting the runs and RBI totals. Only the optimistic fans saw double digit steals again and everyone missed Bogaerts’ big jump in walk rate. I was most pessimistic on his strikeout rate and it’s a surprise everyone else projected such minimal regression. Look at how close the BABIP projections were (except for mine)! Since I expect some regression across the board next year, there’s virtually zero chance he ends up on any of my teams.