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Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has announced his plans to resign in the wake of the resounding defeat suffered on Sunday as exit polls revealed a No victory with a 20% margin. Right up to election day, as he was busy traveling around the country promising new new gifts to voters — the most recent of which involved an increase in state worker’s salaries by 85 euros - he was oddly being described as the “pro-market” candidate! Meanwhile the media, including politicians, economists, and a broad range of commentators, have continuously depicted the vote as a vote of no return for democracy and government stability. CNBC modestly described the referendum as “the most significant European political event of 2016. Yes even bigger than Brexit.” The Independent alerted its readers of the continuity between Trump’s election and a possible No vote; The Financial Times spoke about a high risk of a severe Banking and Euro Crisis on Monday morning. But is it really like another Brexit or Trump? Is Italy’s referendum decisive to bring about the collapse of an already collapsing banking sector?

What Did the Italians Vote On?

On Sunday, Italians voted neither for exiting the Euro nor for paving the way to pro-market reforms.The vote amounted to a judgment on Renzi’s political future, as citizens were faced with the decision of whether to accept or not a reform that aimed at strengthening the executive branch.

The reform package included:

1) the abolition of the balanced bicameral system: instead of the lower and upper house having the same exact powers, the senate would have lost- except with regards to international or constitutional matters- many of its political functions such as that of being able to vote laws against the lower house and holding a vote of confidence.

2) a reduction in the number of senators from 315 to 100 (74 of which would have been regional councelors, 21 mayors, and 5 picked by the Head of State) elected not via direct popular votes anymore but through regional councils.

3) a revision of Title Five: transferring more legislative authority from the periphery (regions) to the center in cases where national interest ought to be followed.

4) the elimination of the CNEL: an organ of the state that offers consultancy to the executive and parliament with regards to economic matters.

Had the Yes won, Renzi would have seen both his position as Prime Minister and his constitutional reforms approved, which would have meant a majority both in the lower house and in the senate, since 17 out of 20 regional administrations are currently in his party’s hands. However, the No vote prevailed, and as Renzi resigned Sunday morning, the ball has now bounced to the Head of State, who will follow the country through an electoral reform and appoint the person who will govern until the end of the current legislative session (2018).

No, This Is not like a Trump or Brexit

According to The Telegraph this vote “could open the way to the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which says it wants a referendum on whether Italy should abandon the euro as its currency.” Such a fear has brought newspapers, like The Guardian, to connect Sunday’s vote with the Trump and Brexit shocks, not least because of Renzi’s declaration, a couple of days preceding the referendum, that Italy would have pursued a stronger position in the EU were the reform to pass.

The idea that the Five Star Movement — founded by Italian comedian Beppe Grillo — will rise to power as a consequence of a No vote is by no means guaranteed, however. The movement’s success will depend on several new changes of the electoral law. Grillo, in order to govern (for his party has always neglected the possibility of entering alliances) will need an absolute majority, which will be extremely difficult were the country to turn to the newly proposed electoral system in the senate. Yet even the comparison between the Five Star’s anti-euro stance and the Brexit anti-EU campaign ought to be rejected. The error in equating these two movements lies in a more subtle confusion between political and monetary sovereignty. The Brexit movement aimed for political independence from the EU. The Five Star movement, on the other hand, seeks “monetary sovereignty” which is really just a more polite term of saying they want to print more money independent of any political restraint. With this in mind then, it is not surprising that when being asked, Grillo has never believed in abandoning the political union. As he told his followers during the Brexit caimpagn: “The Five Star movement is in Europe and has no intention of leaving it.”