On every backpacking trip, I have three primary goals. In order of importance, they are to:

Survive, Maintain a realistic level of comfort, and Have “fun,” the definition of which is subject to personal interpretation.

When I embark on a trip, I always try to abide by the Boy Scout motto — “Be prepared” — by bringing three types of resources, either carried on my back or between my ears, to help me achieve my goals:

Gear, e.g. clothing, shelter, stove, etc.

Supplies, e.g. food, water, fuel, etc.

Skills, e.g. how to hike efficiently, select good campsites, purify water, start a fire, navigate on-trail and off-trail, ford snowmelt-fed rivers, stay warm when it’s cold and wet, etc.

But how can I ensure that I am, in fact, “prepared” for a trip?

How did I eventually settle on this kit for the Alaskan Arctic in March? By first understanding the conditions I would encounter there, and then determining the gear, supplies, and skills I would need.

Option 1: Assemble a catch-all kit

This thinking goes, “By packing a lot of stuff, I will therefore be prepared for everything that comes my way.” Basically, you pack your fears. Beginner backpackers constantly fall into this trap — I was a case-in-point at the start of my first thru-hike, the Appalachian Trail in 2002. But experienced backpackers are not immune either, especially when wandering into new landscapes or climates for the first time.

If you adopt this approach, you’ll probably survive the trip — and maybe even Armageddon. But unfortunately you usually also become a “Camper by Default” — because of the weight and number of things you are carrying, the only way to maintain a realistic level of comfort and to have “fun” is to spend most (preferably, all) of your time in camp. Sorry, but hulking backpacks automatically make hiking an arduous activity between camps, not something that can be enjoyed as a distinct activity within a backpacking trip.

When I hiked from Arches to the Grand Canyon in February & March 2009 I decided to carry snowshoes for 180 miles between Hite and Escalante, in fear of deep snow in the Henry Mountains. If I had known where to look, I would have been able to see that there was not enough snow (i.e. not enough coverage and not deep enough) to warrant them. Instead, for a week I felt foolish for unnecessarily carrying snowshoes across a desert.

Option 2: Know what you need to be prepared against

This is my preferred strategy. Immediately after deciding to go on a trip, I ask, “What are the environmental and route conditions I will likely experience on this trip for which I need to be prepared?” Then, in light of these conditions, I select the gear, supplies and skills that will make me precisely prepared — not under-, over-, or mis-prepared.

By knowing the conditions precisely — plus the gear, supplies and skills that are compatible with these conditions — I can usually take fewer and lighter items. For example:

If I know the average and record temperatures, I don’t have to take “extra” clothing or an excessively warm sleep system.

If I know how often I will cross perennial water sources — or reliable seasonal water sources — I don’t have to carry extra water bottles or extra water.

If I know there will not be insects, my shelter does not need to have bug netting and I don’t need to carry insect repellent or a headnet.

If I know there is enough daylight to avoid hiking at night, I don’t have to carry a super bright (and heavy) flashlight and/or an extra set of batteries.

Because of the abundant precipitation along Alaska’s Lost Coast, I knew that fire-starting would be an important skill to have. Frequent fires gave me opportunities to warm up, dry out, and make hot drinks, which kept me safer and happier.

List of important environmental and route conditions

Climate

Average high/low and record high/low temperatures

(Note: adjust 3 to 5 degrees for every 1,000 vertical feet, depending on humidity — temperature changes are greater in arid climates)

Average and record high/low precipitation per month

(Note: precipitation can be affected significantly by orographic lift.)

Precipitation type, e.g. rain, snow, hail

Precipitation frequency, e.g. constant, sporadic

Humidity

Wind

Cloud cover

Patterns, e.g. prevailing storm direction, ominous cloud formations, seasonal weather patterns

For an in-depth tutorial on predicting backcountry weather, read this.

Daylight

Hours between civil sunrise and civil sunset

(Note: expect 30-60 minutes of less daylight due to heavy cloud cover.)

Daily/weekly change

Moon cycle

Footing

Snow-covered or snow-free

If snow-covered: amount of snow coverage, composition of snowpack, daily/weekly changes in snowpack

If snow-free: rocks, dirt, sand, vegetation, dry, dusty, wet, muddy, smooth or uneven

Vegetation

Types, e.g. trees, brush, none

Thickness/density

Shifts due to elevation, slope aspect, exposure

Allergens, e.g. poison ivy

Combustibility for fires

Navigation aids

Visibility, e.g. open or forested

Topographical relief, e.g. subtle or prominent features

Quality of trail tread

Signs, blazes, cairns, posts

Quantity/frequency of use or social trails

Sun exposure

Altitude

Sun angle

Cloud or tree cover

Reflectivity on water, snow, ice

Water availability

Distance, terrain and time between water sources

Reliability

Problematic wildlife

Bears

“Mini bears,” e.g. mice, racoons, marmots

Food storage regulations

Insects

Types, e.g. mosquitoes, black flies, no-see-um’s

Peak intensity

Intensity fluctuations based on time of day, location, wind

Remoteness

Distance and time to the closest trafficked road and the closest town with services

Natural barriers to self-rescue, e.g. canyons, thick brush, big rivers

Cell reception

Natural hazards

Lingering snowfields

Avalanches

River fords

Flash floods

Tides

Lightning

High altitude

Informational resources

What resources should you consult in assessing environmental and route conditions? These will help:

Climate atlas and historical weather data

Landsat images, e.g. “satellite” view on Google Maps

Geo-tagged photos, e.g. photos on Google Maps

Topographical maps, viewed in CalTopo or GaiaGPS

Guidebooks, databooks, and water charts

Official information published by land mangers and trail associations, made available on their websites and in their printed materials

Communities, e.g. online forums, hiking clubs

Local experts, e.g. backcountry rangers, lodge owners, experienced backcountry users

Sample: Environmental & Route Conditions Assessment

For a sample assessment, read this post.