by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 25

Hoosiers drop to last 2-seed

Despite not playing, Indiana’s RPI drops to #36. RPIs in the range 33-45 are generally considered 3-seed territory, but the B1G regular season title will likely give Indiana the bump they need to claim a 2-seed but it’s really close now due to how well other teams in this range are playing.

Furthermore, most of the teams around Indiana are still playing today so this could move again. Indiana State is one slot below the Hoosiers and if they win the MVC Tourney they will pass the Hoosiers and possibly take away the #2 slot in Louisville.

I used to be a huge proponent of the B1G regular season title guaranteeing the Hoosiers a 2-seed. I’m backing off of that because 2-seed/3-seed is not a huge deal and none of this happens in a vacuum. Teams are playing their way into those 2-seeds and it may be hard to deny them.

Arkansas replaces Stanford as a top-8

I pulled back a bit on my western adjustment and it is bringing my model much more in line with the national media. Arkansas still not nearly as safe for a top-8 as everyone else has them but Stanford drops from safe to #12.

Automatic Bids

No changes. It is possible that teams I have listed as 4-seeds have been eliminated since no clinch auto bids are assumed to be the top RPI team in the league until clinched and I haven’t gone conference by conference.

Stolen Bids

This is the big story now. Four bids have at least a 50-50 shot of being stolen. Another four require one team to go a tear to steal a bid. The Big Ten is not as bad now with Nebraska sitting pretty. If Michigan beats Nebraska twice the Wolverines are a clear at-large so at least one at-large will be in the Big Ten Tourney Champ game. While not clinched for a specific team, the Missouri Valley and SEC only have at-large teams remaining and will not be stolen.

Steal Potential by Conference:

HIGH POTENTIAL STEAL 1. Big Ten (champ game will be at-large/stealer) 2. Conference USA (FAU cruising so far, but a champ game loss = steal) 3. American Athletic (Cincy a threat to steal with E Carolina out already) 4. Big West - no tourney - Cal Poly a game away from sweep to steal bid from UC SANTA BARBARA MEDIUM POTENTIAL STEAL 1. Big 12 (TCU last stealer left in loser's bracket) 2. Mountain West (Fresno State needs to lose twice to be stolen) 3. Big East (Creighton needs to lose twice to be stolen) 4. ACC - (Boston College 2 wins away from a steal) IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL 1. Missouri Valley - at larges only remaining 2. SEC - all remaining are at-large

About the Model

Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.

Hosts by conference:

SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 2, Missouri Valley (+1) and American: 1 each, Big West: 0 (-1)

Lasts in/firsts out:

Minnesota is looking good here due to the strength of schedule. Should the Gophers beat Ohio State twice and lose to Michigan/Nebraska plus no stolen bids… this model could have the Gophers slide in.