“In all the dust kicked up in Washington over Comey, Astana has passed largely unnoticed. But there (Astana), the ‘gear change’ is substantive and merits close attention.”

Colonel Patrick Lang has published on his “Sic Semper Tyrannis” website an extremely interesting analysis by Alastair Crooke regarding the Syrian situation. With his kind permission, I reproduce the text here. Follow us on Twitter: @INTEL_TODAY

About Alastair Crooke

Director and Founder of Conflicts Forum based in Beirut. He was formerly advisor on Middle East issues to Javier Solana, the EU Foreign Policy Chief. He also was a staff member of Senator George Mitchell’s Fact Finding Committee that inquired into the causes of the Intifada (2000-2001) and was adviser to the International Quartet. He facilitated various ceasefires in the Occupied Territories and the withdrawal of occupying forces on 2 occasions.

Alastair has had 20 years’ experience working with Islamist movements, and has extensive experience working with movements such as Hamas, Hezbollah and other Islamist movements in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East. He is a member of the UN’s Alliance of Civilization’s Global Experts.

His book, Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution was published in February 2009 and he is a frequent contributor in the international press, both writing articles and TV and radio commentary. [Conflicts Forum]

ANALYSIS

No, we are not referring to James Comey’s dismissal (though this too, does reflect a change of mode). Perhaps we should have paid closer attention to Roger Stone, a long-time friend of the President, and his erstwhile campaign manager, who insists, and insists trenchantly, that Trump is his ‘own man’. Those who think Trump can be manipulated are mistaken, Stone says. They misread the terrain, and subsequently will find that they are mistaken. No, by ‘change of gear’, we refer rather, to the Astana-Syria talks.

In all the dust kicked up in Washington over Comey, Astana has passed largely unnoticed. But there (Astana), the ‘gear change’ is substantive and merits close attention. In gist, Trump is willing to let Astana unfold, and to see whether it may lead to a strategic change in the Syrian situation. Two things emerge from this: Firstly, Russia and Iran are being tested by Trump. Ideological prejudices are being suspended for the moment, and both countries will be judged by their actions. (I think both states will stand content with this situation).

The second shift of mode, concerns certain (but not all) of Trump’s military advisers. The latter have been quite prominent in the formulation of US foreign policy until now. No more (at least in Syria). There can be no doubt — strategic Syria policy now lies with Rex Tillerson and Sergei Lavrov, who have been mandated to follow up the Astana de-escalation process. And in the recent talks in Astana, unlike before, the US had a senior diplomat attend and observe the talks – an Assistant Secretary of State. In brief, the baton has passed from the Generals Mattis and McMaster, from the sphere of military intervention primarily, to the primacy of negotiations. To make this clear, Trump said explicitly in the wake of the Tomahawk attack: “We’re not going in to Syria” — implying that the strike was a one-off action.

Two caveats need to be made: Firstly, that Syrian-led military action (against ISIS and al-Qaida) will not cease, and the ceasefire eventually will likely breakdown. And, secondly, the British, French – and parts of the US military – will not give up their tactical inserting of wrenches – as they see it – into Assad’s wheels. These actors, together with Turkey will continue to play both ends of the game.

What precipitated this change? Well, as so often with Trump, it seems it was personal contact and chemistry that changed events. Former Indian diplomat, now political commentator, MK Badrakhumar puts it succinctly:

“The cracking of the ice on the frozen Russian-American lake can only mean a temperature change. The telephone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Tuesday can be compared to ice cracking after an unusually cold and long winter. The readouts from the White House and the Kremlin both give a positive spin to the phone call.