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So, what is a “flood watch” anyway? We have flooding of some kind every year in Manitoba. Pallister seemed to imply he wouldn’t call an election if it appeared Manitoba was facing severe flooding or was in the middle of a heavy flood.

“I was here, and I’m old enough to remember 1997, and a certain event that occurred with the throwing of a sandbag and then the calling of an election in the middle of an enormous flood and I am not going to be repeating that behaviour,” said Pallister.

The premier was referring to a federal election that was called during the 1997 Flood of the Century when Winnipeg was within inches of going under and then-prime minister Jean Chretien came to town and tossed a sandbag for the cameras.

The question is, what’s motivating Pallister to even consider an early election? There are minor pros and cons to going early. But there’s really no net benefit for his government or his party to calling an election before October 2020. The Tories will likely be re-elected with a solid majority whether there’s an election in 2019 or 2020.

The only reason left is perhaps Pallister wants to end his tenure as premier sooner rather than later. He wants to be re-elected and he wants to accomplish his two major goals: cut the PST and balance the budget. The rest is gravy. He now knows he can likely accomplish both of those by 2022.

By early May this year, Pallister will be able to say he’s in his fourth year in office and that his government needs a new mandate. By that time he’ll also know if Manitoba is facing severe flooding or not.

A 2019 spring election would mean by 2022, Pallister would be about three years into his second term, a reasonable time to announce his retirement from politics. It would also allow plenty of time for a leadership race before the next election. And then it’s off into the sunset from there.

Why wait around until 2024 when you could retire two years sooner?

There really is no other reason for Pallister to call an early election.