Mr. Cuomo has relied on several models in making his decisions, and while each is slightly different, they all convinced him that the wisest course of action was to plan for the worst while hoping for the best.

The models also helped Mr. Cuomo and other governors project an air of confidence amid the crisis and to come up with the cover they required to place their states under crippling restrictions that have damaged economies and brought most aspects of life to a halt.

When asked on Friday at his daily news briefing whether he feared losing credibility for trusting some models that had proven to be less than accurate, Mr. Cuomo said no.

“I think my credibility would be affected if I didn’t ask experts for their opinion,” he said.

The governor also said that the discrepancy between the predictions and the actual statistics was because of the behavior of New Yorkers themselves. With some exceptions, New Yorkers have managed to follow the restrictions on movement and socializing.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, seemed to agree and congratulated Mr. Cuomo and his counterparts on Friday for having slowed the tide of infections in their states.

“That has dramatically changed because of the impact of what the citizens of New York and New Jersey and across Connecticut and now Rhode Island are doing to really change the course of this pandemic,” Dr. Birx said.

It is, of course, prudent politically and for public health reasons that elected leaders over-plan, not under-plan, for disasters. During hurricanes, for instance, governors are much more likely to save their constituents’ lives, and their own jobs, by ordering evacuations early rather than banking on the chance that a storm will peter out.