The article added that, in combination with President Clinton’s high approval ratings, “the findings provide gloomy news for Republicans.” Similarly, a 2010 article, while cast in a more negative light for the Democrats and Obama (“the most anti-incumbent electorate since 1994”), portrayed the Democrats’ issue advantage as among the “positive signs” for the party.

Why haven’t these issue advantages translated into electoral success? First, the midterm electorate is not representative of the American public. The public’s preferences for Democrats on the issues may diminish or disappear once you look at registered voters or those who claim they are “absolutely certain” to vote, as Jaime Fuller of The Washington Post has noted. The Democrats’ edge on the issues is likely to dissipate further among the older, whiter group of Americans most likely to vote in November.

In addition, the importance of the issues in congressional elections is typically overstated. Structural factors like presidential approval, the state of the economy, the type of election (midterm or presidential year) and the composition of the seats that are up for election tend to matter more.

None of this is to say that the public’s policy preferences are irrelevant — Democrats would presumably be worse off if the public preferred Republicans on the issues. But their advantage on these questions shouldn’t offer much reassurance. It didn’t save them in 1994 or 2010 and most likely will not in November either.