As prospect enthusiasts go, they always want to know the ceiling, floor, or major league comparison for that prospect is. This is an almost impossible to answer question and is filled with variables, but there are systems out there that look at age, skill, and level similarities to provide a quantifiable comparable for a prospect. Not to say that these systems are perfect, but they are based off cold hard data.

One such system is the Comparison and Likeness (CAL) system created by Joseph Werner at our sister site Beyond the Box Score. More information about josh: he's the owner of ProspectDigest, his work has been featured on ESPN, and he's easily reachable on Twitter.

When I first read his post introducing the CAL system at BTBS, coincidentally it was about Mike Moustakas, I was intrigued by the process. I love projection and comparables systems. I'm a big believer in ZiPS, and I think PECOTA's five-year and similarity score index (so much that I wrote an article using it) is a great start to figuring out what a prospect may be given his similarity to other former prospects.

I reached out to Joseph/Joe/Joey on Twitter to see if he could provide me the CAL system results for Royals prospects. Not only was he very willing to give his information to me, but he did me one better and threw in a few current Royals pro bono (if you think that Royals prospect comps are "for the public good" as pro bono means...). What a swell guy.

Some of the information is still behind the scenes and if you have questions I'm sure Joe would be more than willing to answer them, but I'll let him explain his system better than I can.

What is CAL? Before that question can be answered, let's take a look at what CAL isn't -- namely, a projection system in the traditional sense. CAL doesn't forecast an upcoming season -- or seasons -- like PECOTA or ZiPS or Oliver or any other groundbreaking well-known projection system. So what exactly is CAL then? It's a player classification system whose singular goal is quite simple -- to provide a better context in which minor league numbers can be evaluated by finding closely related players. It's another piece to the analytical puzzle. Taking James' original formula and reworking it with a litany of differently weighted statistics, CAL searches through the database for players of the same ilk. Each player starts out with 1000 points and subtractions are made for differences in age, level of competition, and, of course, position, among many others. (Some of the statistics used are: strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and homerun rates for pitchers, and plate discipline, Isolated Power, and Speed Score, which was developed by James himself). Ideally, players with a score of 980 or higher represents a potentially strong correlation between skillsets and, again, a potentially similar development path. Outside of 980 points, skillsets begin to differ; obviously, so, the further away from that point. One player may have more speed or less power or play a different position. Basically, at its root, CAL provides a list of players with similar skillsets and conclusions can be drawn from the evidence. If a player's top five CALs all flamed out in the minor leagues, well, there's enough evidence to suggest that the player may struggle as well. It is not definitive proof, but it allows one to make a more well-educated projection. The database has been built using FanGraphs' minor league statistics, which means the history begins with 2006 season. This also brings me to another interesting point: it's not an expansive database; it extends just eight seasons. So as the data size continues to grow we'll have an even better understanding of CAL's potential as an analytical tool. Now there are two things to note: The scores aren't based on a player's collective history, it's just one season at a time. For example, Player A's age-23 season matches up well with Player B's age-23 season. And the second is that until advanced minor league defensive data becomes available, CAL only focuses on a hitter's offensive ability. It simply uses a player's position as another filter. Finally, each of the following examples depicts each player as if he is currently working through the minor leagues. Is CAL a predictive tool for hitters? Nothing is 100% definitive. However, I've run through numerous test cases that suggest that CAL can become -- and is -- a useful analytical tool for hitters. The system has shown the ability to root through a lot of the statistical mumbo-jumbo -- and all the unnecessary hype -- and sniff out some of the bigger prospect busts and surprises, including some late-blooming big leaguers as well. Again, CAL provides the evidence to allow the user to make better educated guesses by looking at his contemporaries.

As with most similarity and projection systems we are missing a lot of real term data that could improve our systems, such as defensive data, but Joe has created a certainly admirable system. One thing I noticed with his results is that many of the comparables that CAL provided matched those that scouts or the baseball community have sourced.

Below are the CAL results for a handful of Royals current players and prospects. Joe has left notes by each player to further explain what CAL was likely thinking or what could cause a variation in the similarity.

So with the graces of Joe, and whether you like the results or not, here are the CAL system results for the players.

PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Christian Colon 21 A+ Eduardo Nunez

Eric Stamets

Hector Made

Shane Opitz

Edgar Duran

Didi Gregorius 960.27

936.00

927.73

926.87

926.00

925.47 This is the absolute perfect example of what I envision CAL to be:

littered throughout all of Colon's top comparisons are nothing

but fringe major leaguers and utility guys (Nunez, Getz, Barney,

Hernandez Sogard, Sanchez). And I think it's pretty safe to assume

that we're all in agreement -- with or without the use of CAL --

Colon slides directly into that group.



REMEMBER: CAL works by looking at the evidence it provides

and making educated decisions. 22 AA Chin-Lung Hu

Angel Sanchez

Jonathan Herrera

Ozzie Martinez

Rey Navarro

Didi Gregorius 947.20

945.07

938.93

926.73

922.07

907.07 23 AA Alberto Gonzalez

Eric Sogard

Chris Getz

Darwin Barney

Josh Horton 958.07

926.67

917.73

913.93

907.00 24 AAA Darwin Barney

Anderson Hernandez

Alberto Gonzalez

Niuman Romero

Chin-Lung Hu 928.53

925.93

921.92

912.47

909.80 25 AAA Angel Sanchez

Eric Sogard

Cole Figueroa

Luis Hernandez

Andres Blanco 917.93

917.73

916.47

890.20

889.53

PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Billy Butler 20 AA Logan Morrison

Mike Carp

Chris Marrero

Freddie Freeman

Kyle Blanks 869.67

858.00

856.20

855.93

854.00 Not only does this show proper prospect attrition rate, but look at

MLB'ers career wRC+: 103 Morrison, 113 Carp, 98 Wieters, and

129 Freeman. Ignoring this season, Butler's is 120.



Also something to point out, not one player on this list

ever topped 30 homeruns. Career ISO's: .172 Morrison, .154 Butler, .168 Carp, .166 Wieters, .183 Freeman 21 AAA Logan Morrison (2010)

Eric Duncan

Logan Morrison (2009)

Ji-Man Choi

Matt Wieters 858.53

855.07

819.20

817.67

801.60 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Yordano Ventura 20 A Andrew Bellatti

Dennis Neuman

Kyle Ginley

Carlos Vazquez

Francellis Montas

Jeremy Hellickson 957.10

926.90

924.90

920.90

919.00

915.00 A prime example of CAL's usefulness when it comes to pitchers:

This list is absolutely littered with quality (future) big league arms

(Montas, Hellickson, Zimmer, Archer, Cole, Paxton, Kennedy,

Odorizzi, Smyly, Wheeler).



It's important to note -- and I plan on discussing this in next

week's piece -- pitchers, especially big arms like Ventura, have

the potential to move quickly through systems, so that does impact

comparisons. 21 A+ Kyle Zimmer

Christian Friedrich

Jared Lansford

Chris Archer

Gerrit Cole 968.90

926.20

914.00

912.00

910.90 22 AA James Paxton

Ian Kennedy

Jake Odorizzi

Drew Smyly

Dan Smith 964.80

939.00

933.80

932.00

928.10 22 AAA Patrick Corbin

Will Startup

Zack Wheeler

Carlos Villanueva

Dana Eveland 913.10

911.10

908.00

906.10

902.00 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Kyle Zimmer 21 A+ Yordano Ventura

Christian Friedrich

Jared Lansford

Nick Kingham

Chris Archer

Wade Davis

Gerrit Cole 968.90

908.90

896.90

895.80

894.90

893.90

893.80 Again, the list is littered with front-of-the-rotation-type arms:

Ventura, Archer, Cole. PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Raul Mondesi 17 A Elvis Andrus

Jose Vinicio

Andrew Velazquez

Dorssys Paulino

Delino Deshields 943.87

882.80

866.40

863.13

856.67 It's a pretty decent list, but not one player has an impact bat. I think

Andrus comp is pretty solid, personally. 18 A+ Jose Vinicio

Elvis Andrus

Chris Owings

Leury Garcia

Jonathan Villar 852.33

849.87

834.20

832.33

828.20 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Eric Hosmer 19 A Lars Anderson

Nick Delmonico

Aaron Hicks

Daryl Jones

Jon Singleton 934.27

914.60

912.00

899.87

889.67 Again, look at the patterns: Outside of Singleton (maybe), not

one player has developed that type of power projected for Hosmer.

Morrison (three times), Butler, Smoak, Barton, Rasmus, Belt.



Obviously, CAL wasn't too impressed by Hosmer's early work. 20 A+ Logan Morrison

Christian Yelich

Lars Anderson

Nick Evans

Ryan Wheeler

Joc Pederson 864.00

854.20

845.87

842.67

842.67

836.73 20 AA Oscar Taveras

Maikel Franco

Brandon Belt

Colby Rasmus

Billy Butler 853.67

789.80

777.33

774.00

767.40 21 AAA Daric Barton

Logan Morrison (2009)

Logan Morrison (2010)

Billy Butler

Justin Smoak 838.60

836.00

827.33

812.80

793.73 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Hunter Dozier 22 A+ Abel Nieves

Mike Costanzo

Karexon Sanchez

Niko Sanchez

Thomas Pham

Chase Headley 943.47

908.60

905.00

903.93

897.80

896.73 He was viewed as a reach in order to sign Manaea later, but

this is not an encouraging list. At. All. 22 AA Reid Engel

Marcos Vechionacci

Jarek Cunningham

Stephen King

Michael Mosby 917.53

910.87

886.13

866.40

862.00 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Bubba Starling 20 A Slade Heathcott

Justin Jacobs

Drew Vettleson

Joe Benson

Roman Pena 929.60

924.33

922.73

920.13

917.00 Toolsy outfielders who never really panned out. Not surprising. 21 A+ Thomas Pham

Michael Tayor (WAS)

Shaun Cumberland

Tim Battle

Wilkin Ramirez 948.80

932.20

931.27

927.27

923.33 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Wil Myers 19 A Jaff Decker

Byron Buxton

Josh Sale

John Drennen

Bryce Harper 928.27

888.20

887.80

883.87

872.27 Again, look at the patterns: Harper, Buxton, Heyward, Winker, Rasmus, McCutchen, Jackson, Stanton, Jones, Bruce, Rizzo. Above-average or better big league bats. No question.



His slow start to last season in AAA coupled with a smaller

sample size skewed CAL's opinion of him in 2013. 19 A+ Byron Buxton

Colby Rasmus

Nick Weglarz

Jesse Winker

Jason Heyward 856.60

854.73

843.20

838.07

831.80 20 AA Tyler Austin

Andrew Lambo

Robbie Grossman

John Drennen

Andrew McCutchen

Austin Jackson 902.67

880.67

879.27

873.07

870.80

870.80 21 AA Giancarlo Stanton

Travis Snider

Miguel Sano

Christian Yelich

Joe Benson 758.13

752.53

737.93

733.33

711.93 21 AAA Adam Jones

Jay Bruce (2007)

Anthony Rizzo

Christian Yelich

Jay Bruce (2008) 926.00

866.33

863.27

862.53

858.13 22 AAA Michael Saunders

Josh Reddick

Brandon Wood

Wladimir Balentin

Nick Weglarz 908.53

899.87

890.73

887.00

874.67 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Patrick Leonard 20 A Connor Narron

Daryl Jones

Mark Trumbo

Brandon Snyder

Jacob Kuebler 952.53

934.40

933.27

926.47

909.40 Threw him in here because of the inclusion of Myers trade.

Despite some impressive numbers this season, it's an unimpressive list. 21 A+ Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Dustin Geiger

Beau Mills

Jake Marisnick

Daryl Jones 929.27

921.87

915.13

898.67

894.73 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Miguel Almonte 20 A Christian Binford

Edgar Osuna

Tyler Herron

Dimaster Delgado

Wesley Parsons 946.20

944.90

942.10

939.00

939.00 It's a pretty uninspiring list, really, with the exception of Parsons,

Binford, and Ranuado. Conclusion: back end starting pitcher or

solid relief arm. 21 A+ Jon Barrett

Patrick Urckfitz

Bryan Shaw

Ryan Berry

Anthony Ranaudo 953.90

943.90

938.00

933.90

930.90 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Sal Perez 20 A+ Francisco Hernandez

Tomas Telis

Angel Solome

Alex Monsalve

Rossmel Perez 891.00

869.47

869.00

868.47

862.20 This one was shockingly off (nothing's perfect), though Salome

was once viewed as a top backstop prospect before eating himself

out of the league.



Ramos' career wRC+ is 108. Perez's career wRC+ is 108. 21 AA Wilson Ramos

Angel Salome

Christian Bethancourt

Carlos Paulino 931.67

887.80

886.73

879.47 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Alex Gordon 22 AA Pedro Alvarez

Mat Gamel

Jerry Sands

Domonic Brown

Ryan Braun

Chase Headley

Jedd Gyorko 890.73

887.67

885.73

884.60

877.67

873.33

872.00 It's a solid list of names. Look at the career wRC+:

105 Alvarez, 97 Brown, 147 Braun, 113 Headley, 110 Gordon.

Obviously, Braun is the outlier, but I only had one minor league

season to work off of (2006). Jorge Bonifacio Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: 19 A Andrew McCutchen

Lius Domoromo

Delta Cleary

Edward Salcedo

Jordan Schafer 948.33

932.47

923.87

908.13

907.13 The McCutchen, Myers and Gomez comps stand out, but there's

an awful lot of fourth outfielder-types mixed in. Bonifacio had that

hamate injury last year, which saps a player's power for a while.

I think he looks like a solid league average regular, though there

is some risk involved. 20 A+ Gorkys Hernandez

Moises Sierra

John Drennen

Ramon Flores

Marvin Lowrance 918.47

917.00

912.93

908.73

906.00 20 AA Wil Myers

Yorman Rodriguez

Tyler Austin

Andrew Lambo

Carlos Gomez 913.27

868.73

866.60

853.93

851.60 21 AA Raymond Fuentes

Xavier Avery

Gorkys Hernandez

Kaleb Cowart

Tyler Austin 942.27

925.87

924.33

923.20

898.80 PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Sean Manaea 22 4 Tyler Thornburg

Billy Bullock

Jake Arrieta

Sam Demel

Tanner Roark 940.80

932.90

925.20

920.80

918.00 The vagaries of having just 80+ innings to work with. Some encouraging names mixed in though (Arrieta and Roark). PLAYER Age Level Comparison CAL Notes: Christian Binford 20 A Tyler Herron

Gregory Billo

Justin Nicolino

Wesley Parsons

Miguel Almonte 989.90

966.00

954.10

947.20

946.20 A lot of back-end-type arms with the exclusion of Odorizzi. 21 A+ Liam Hendricks

Joe Wieland

Edwin Escobar

James Parr

Daniel Herrera

Rafael Montero

Jake Odorizzi 907.00

904.00

903.00

897.00

888.90

887.00

886.90

Note - I asked Joe if there were certain things he wanted to stress about the CAL system and he had this to say:

1. CAL is designed to look at a player's total production, not specifics (like avg., OBP, slug, HR, etc...)

2. CAL is a player classification system. It's up to the analysis to make the educated analysis.

I won't analyze the data myself, but I'll leave that to you all in the comments. I can already guess what the Wil Myers comments will be... Interestingly I wrote about Jorge Bonifacio as Wil Myers last August as Bonifacio was performing well in AA and CAL produced that result.

Again, big thanks to Joe for giving us this information. He's in the beginning stages of introducing the CAL system, which you will likely find more of over at BTBS, and we graciously accept him allowing us in on the project. Hopefully his information guides you further along in the endless pursuit of baseball knowledge.

If you didn't do so the first time, go check out Joe's site ProspectDigest, and follow him on Twitter.