I know that most of you are already formulating snarky responses to the title, but hear me out.

We know that in The Winds of Winter, Davos will arrive in Skagos to retrieve Rickon Stark and return him to Winterfell. That was the cliffhanger during A Dance with Dragons, and as there is still a considerable amount of the book left after Davos’ last chapter, it’s easy to assume that his TWOW storyline will take place concurrent with events during ADWD. i.e: by the time Davos is out of Skagos with Rickon, the Battle of Winterfell is likely shaping up.

I don’t think there’s any option that he won’t return Rickon. It makes narrative sense – to send Davos to Skagos and have him return empty-handed or die there would be utterly pointless and a waste of valuable pages. This would mean that Davos reunites with Stannis early on in the story. Job done, right?

GRRM has said that the Battles of Ice and Fire both take place early in the book, and he’s also said that it’ll be over 1000 pages. Davos is our look-in on Stannis’ storyline, so it makes sense to think that he’ll just spend the rest of the book by his side and update us on the situation in the North, but now that Stannis is actually in the North he doesn’t necessarily need Davos as a POV character any more. Theon and Ya- Asha are currently with him (although I think he’ll send them packing to the Iron Islands to have them declare for him), and I’m pretty certain Jon will be soon too since he doesn’t really have anywhere else to go. What happens to Davos then?

We know from an Arianne preview chapter from The Winds of Winter that “Aegon Targaryen” has successfully taken Storm’s End. That’s pretty big fucking news; the ancestral seat of House Baratheon who usurped his (supposed) family from the throne, which has also never ever ever been taken. And it was taken by a teenage exile with a band of mercenaries. That’s cause for some applause I think, but Stannis won’t see it that way. Word of Aegon’s Landing will almost definitely reach Winterfell quickly and what is Stannis supposed to do, ignore it? He’s stuck in the North at the moment; he’ll almost definitely win back Winterfell, but Storm’s End is way down south and winter is stopping him from getting there. It’d be a logistical nightmare for Stannis and his troops to march all the way to the Stormlands; if it took months for them to reach Crofter’s Village from the Wall then how long would it take to get to Storm’s End?

This is where Davos, White Harbour and Shipbreaker Bay come in.

We know from Wyman’s talks in ADWD that he has constructed several big warships and is hiding them in the White Knife. I read somewhere that the number is around 46. Wyman seems to be the main guy in this ‘Grand Northern Conspiracy/Plan’ and he will be extremely grateful to Stannis for relieving them of the Boltons and Freys. What is Davos’ primary role for Stannis aside from being his Hand? An admiral. He was a smuggler and a fantastic sailor before being raised to lordship and being a part of the fleet sailing into Blackwater Bay. He probably would have been successful in taking the city if it wasn’t for Tyrion’s trick with the chain and the wildfire.

Another major component of this theory is Davos’ family. In A Storm of Swords, Davos is named as ‘Lord of the Rainwood’; Rainwood is a castle in the Stormlands. I believe this is mentioned a few more times in the books but I don’t have any evidence on hand. His family (well, what’s left of it) are residing in this castle and in the same TWOW chapter that tells us Aegon has taken Storm’s End, it gives us a list of castles which have also been taken. Guess what’s also on that list?

So this mission becomes personal to Davos as well as Stannis. There’s also the element of humility; Stannis has become what I’ve dubbed ‘The Forgotten King’. Sure, he’s been doing some good deeds at the Wall, but the majority of Westeros don’t care and don’t know about anything that’s going on up there. The War of Five Kings is over, Renly’s dead, Robb’s dead, the Starks are gone, Balon’s dead, Joffrey’s dead. Most people just see him as a jealous uncle who got demolished by lions and roses at Blackwater Bay. His upcoming attack on Winterfell will drum up some interest no doubt, but the North is so far away from King’s Landing and separated by winter, war, bandits, famine etc that it won’t prove a direct threat to the Iron Throne. It’s a really big deal but not a direct threat.

Granted, taking Storm’s End won’t be a direct threat either, however it’s definitely closer to King’s Landing. Stannis is not a man who submits to being mocked, and Aegon taking Storm’s End is just that: an insult to the Usurper’s family. Strategically and socially it makes a ton of sense, however it’s also kind of a ‘fuck you’ to the family who usurped and murdered his. Is Stannis Baratheon, the man with teeth made of iron, going to stand for this?

Of course not. The longer a teenager, a minor lord who’s been exiled for nearly two decades and a gang of mercenaries from Essos hold one of the major castles of the Seven Kingdoms, – his castle – the longer he looks even more useless in the eyes of the lords, ladies and peasants. Additionally, from his point of view the rest of the continent don’t want a Targaryen drumming up rebellion and taking the throne. It hasn’t been a very long time since they were usurped by Robert and everybody flocked over to him because Aerys was insane. If Stannis can crush “Aegon” then he’d be killing this plan in its crib, catching even more attention from the rest of Westeros and at the same time finally getting Storm’s End under his watch.

So let’s see what we’ve got so far…

Stannis can’t leave the North because winter has come Aegon VI Targaryen has taken Storm’s End, the seat of House Baratheon and his castle by rights One of his new allies has a load of warships at his disposal His Hand is an experienced sailor, admiral and is a main character in the saga who will need something other than filling us in on Stannis’ day to do Davos has sailed into Shipbreaker Bay and lived already in this series; in A Clash of Kings when Melisandre bears the shadow baby. Stannis will not stand to be humiliated by a teenager taking his impenetrable fortress and making a mockery of both him and House Baratheon. Crushing Aegon before he does anything else big and even gains support will put his name back on the map. Stannis will likely not be able to attack Storm’s End himself because he’ll be too busy dealing with Northern politics, but his most trusted ally with personal ties to the Stormlands and a history with ships is looking for something to do. Davos’ family have either been killed or are prisoners of Aegon, making this idea personal for both him and his king.

You can see where this is headed.

My theory is that once Stannis learns of the fall of Storm’s End he will send Davos with a portion of the Manderly fleet to reclaim it. A portion, not the whole fleet; I imagine Stannis intends to use Wyman’s ships to retake King’s Landing and beat Aegon to the punch, however I highly doubt this will actually be attempted for reasons which I’ll go in to in a future post.

Will he be successful? I don’t know. It could go either way and I think the story could still be interesting. It’s called Shipbreaker Bay for a reason, so there’s a strong chance that Davos might fail. If he did then he would be presented with two options: bend the knee and support King Aegon, or be executed as a traitor for serving a usurper. Given Davos’ historic loyalty, I think we know which option he’d choose.

However, if he succeeded then it would put a quick end to Aegon’s time in Westeros. It would be a little anticlimatic for this to happen so I’m going to expand on this idea; Davos will be successful in retaking Storm’s End, however Aegon and perhaps Jon Connington will escape in the process.

But I’m not interested in that option.

Look, I really like Davos. He’s a fantastic character and arguably the most ‘good’ character out of all the books, and it’ll be a tragedy when we read about his death. However, GRRM knows that he needs to shave off POV characters in the next book and he has to stay true to his own writing rules. If he concocts a scenario where Davos, Aegon and Jon Connington all live because that’s what “the fans want” then it seems like a cop-out, because in a realistic situation one of those three characters would die, and I think it makes the most sense for Davos to be that guy. Aegon and JonCon’s stories are only just beginning, whereas Davos’ has been going since 1998. It fits with his character and George R.R. Martin’s rules on killing characters to have him die an honourable man defending his king. My ideal situation would be Davos being one of the characters to live past A Dream of Spring and settle down in one of the Free Cities with the remnants of his family, however it’s rare that we get what we want in A Song of Ice and Fire, and that’s part of the reason for why I love it so much.

That concludes the fourth instalment of ASOIAF Theory Time. I like to keep to a pattern; a blog post, then a video, then a blog post, and so forth. That’s how it’s gone so far and I’m breaking that by going for two blog posts in a row, but making and uploading videos takes time and I wanted to get this theory out there quickly.

What do you think?