Rick Perry

Best-case scenario: A stunningly high number of voters cast write-in votes for him (after a push by a 527 group called “Americans for Rick Perry”), vaulting him into fifth place — accompanied by a Ron Paul first-place finish. A Paul win would signal Perry was tapping into support from caucus-goers who are anti-establishment but also want a winner. The other stroke of good luck? Perry’s announcement Saturday at a South Carolina conservative bloggers’ convention that he’s running dominates the airwaves and diminishes the Ames results, providing him something of a glide path into Iowa the following day.

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Worst-case scenario: Fewer write-ins than Fred Thompson’s 200-plus in 2007, or — gasp! — than John McCain’s just-over-100 that same year. Despite the fact that Perry hasn’t organized and he wasn’t on the ballot, some will spin it as evidence that Iowa Republicans are indeed angry with him for snubbing the Ames Straw Poll. That will only heighten sensitivity for gaffes or miscues when Perry makes his inaugural Iowa appearance at a Black Hawk County GOP fundraiser on Sunday afternoon, setting him up for a series of stumbles on the level of Jon Huntsman’s rollout.

Ron Paul



Best-case scenario: He takes the top prize. For the first time, Paul arrives as a figure the mainstream has to acknowledge — and cannot easily dismiss. Establishment GOP insiders will say the win may seriously erode the impact of the straw poll in future presidential cycles, but Paul uses it to rally his loyal band of supporters and to rake in even more Internet campaign cash.

Worst-case scenario: He finishes behind Newt Gingrich. A poor showing will be disappointing, given his specialty in winning straw polls, raise questions about the staying power of the Paul movement and suggest that even Paul-ites are looking for a winner in the general election against a sour economic backdrop. Even then though, some of his backers will stick with him until the end — and he can remain in the race as a gadfly through the caucuses.

Mitt Romney

Best-case scenario: Holds the same number of votes he had at Ames in 2007, when he actually competed in the straw poll and spent $1 million rustling up votes. It would solidify his front-runner status just as Rick Perry is poised to try to shake him from it and would indicate a base that has seemed elusive for Romney. He could bounce from a respectable performance into the fall, with a shot of actually doing well in the caucuses.

Worst-case scenario: Romney fails to net the 100-odd votes John McCain got in 2007, when — like Romney this year — he steered clear of Ames in a similar move to diminish the results. This seems unlikely, since Romney has a core of supporters he connected with in the last campaign cycle. But his bar has to be higher than just matching McCain.