Ontario was always going to count for a lot in the outcome of this month’s federal election. On the morning after the first of two French-language leaders’ debates, it matters even more.

For Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer in particular, winning big in Canada’s largest province later this month has become an absolute necessity.

With time running out, he largely missed out Wednesday night on what was likely his best opportunity to make a more positive impression in Quebec.

If he is to elect enough MPs to have a shot at forming the next federal government, Scheer will likely need all the Ontario help he can get. His performance on the TVA debate is unlikely to have expanded his growth potential in Quebec.

It is not that the debate — the first in this campaign to see Liberal leader Justin Trudeau join his main rivals on the podium — produced a single winner.

But Trudeau, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet were all considered to have had a decent night, essentially at Scheer’s expense.

The Conservative leader did not have the momentum-generating debate he needed.

For the better part of two hours, Scheer took more hits than he managed to land. There were moments when he looked more like a punching bag than a fighter in the ring.

He probably knew he was in for a long evening from the minute the debate opened with a question about abortion rights.

Given Scheer’s promise that a Conservative government would not reopen the abortion debate, the issue should be moot. But against the backdrop of a proactively anti-abortion administration in the United States, it is harder to put to rest fears that a socially conservative prime minister might be tempted to join the movement to restrict women’s right to choose.

Scheer’s pro-pipeline stance, along with his determination to dismantle Trudeau’s climate-change policy, also predictably came back to bite him. Both Blanchet and Singh asked him point blank whether a Conservative government would force a pipeline on Quebec.

His contention that Trudeau gave away the store at the NAFTA renegotiating table was weakened by his admission that, as prime minister, he would not attempt to take back that so-called store.

If there is common thread between Scheer’s vulnerabilities on three topics as unrelated as abortion, pipelines and NAFTA, it might be his reluctance in each case to bite the bullet of his convictions rather than seek refuge in evasive statements.

By comparison to Scheer, Trudeau had as good an evening as an incumbent can hope for in such a format. With the focus on his main rival, he came in for fewer attacks than he might have expected.

It also probably helped that in contrast with the Conservative leader, Trudeau tackled issues that have put him offside the Quebec mainstream head on, such as his refusal to rule out a court challenge of the provincial law on secularism or the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline.

Singh, who was debating on the leaders’ podium in a second language for the first time, managed to come across as both likeable and effective in spelling out NDP policy. His performance may not reverse the tide in Quebec, but at a minimum it did no harm to the party’s cause.

With the next debate set to take place in English — a language he is obviously more comfortable in — it would be risky for his rivals to underestimate Singh’s potential to score points.

For more than two decades, Gilles Duceppe had held the debate fort for the Bloc Québécois. On Wednesday, that fort was efficiently defended by his latest successor. For many Quebec voters, Blanchet remains a largely unknown quantity. With the advantage of language, he made the most of the opportunity to present himself as the only leader strictly devoted to Quebec’s interests.

This is not a new argument, and in 2011 and 2015 it did not prevent a critical number of voters from deciding that the Bloc had outlived its purpose.

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But in this campaign, the BQ has seen its support rise steadily. On Wednesday, Blanchet’s main mission clearly was to pry off some of the non-Liberal vote Scheer needs to make more inroads in francophone Quebec.

If Blanchet is succeeding, a stronger Bloc and a less divided opposition vote in his home province could spell trouble for Trudeau. In more than a few ridings, the Liberals may need a three-way battle to squeak through on Oct 21.

There are still two debates to come, in English on Monday and in French next Thursday. But if Scheer found it hard to hold his own in a four-way debate, and if Trudeau found it easier than many expected to defend his record, the addition of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier next week is unlikely to alter the dynamics that were in play on Wednesday.

Chantal Hébert is a columnist based in Ottawa covering politics. Follow her on Twitter: @ChantalHbert

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