THE Great Barrier Reef's chances of survival from even moderate climate change is poor and ''catastrophic damage'' may not be avoided, the first Reef Outlook Report has found.

And it concludes that the rate of climate change backed by the Federal Government would result in ''severe'' coral bleaching and threaten the habitats of key species on the reef.

The five-year study by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority was released yesterday by the Environment Minister, Peter Garrett, who used the occasion to announce a new water-quality plan for the reef.

In a series of dire predictions for the Australian icon, the report finds that carbon in the atmosphere will have to be kept to under 400 parts per million (ppm) if animal species and coral are to have a low to medium vulnerability to climate change.

The current level of carbon in the atmosphere is 387 ppm.