https://twitter.com/justincbzz/status/1230844595946295296 This is such a great question. And to be clear- Ds should be able to win both of these states in 2020. But of the 2, its AZ and its not even close. A+ senate nominee in a state that flipped in '18 & AZ is actually a story of both turnout & persuasion bc Never Trump/McCain Rs.

A small, and mean small, group of whom appear to have strategically voted against McSally in the 2018 cycle bc both the CNN exits & other data I've looked at show that only 88% of Rs voted for the R senate candidate there. That is 2 pts higher than the normal break down & AZ was

the ONLY state we saw something like that happen in for Rs (I have an article I am working on for this) other than WVA, which is still a "historical Dem" realignment where a significant % of Rs are casting ballots for Manchin, but Manchin will likely be the last D they vote for