Canada's crime rate: Two decades of decline

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Crime.

It's reported in the news every day. Sometimes, it's the leading story.

We read about it, talk about it, and wonder how the news stories relate to the overall picture.

And the numbers tell us that the overall police-reported crime rate in Canada has been falling for more than 20 years.

Since 1962, Statistics Canada has collected information on all criminal incidents substantiated and reported by Canadian police services, as well as on victims' experiences.

In Canada, there are two complementary ways to measure police-reported crime: the traditional crime rate and the Crime Severity Index. While both measures take into account the volume of police-reported crime, the Crime Severity Index also accounts for the seriousness of the crime.

Since crime was first measured uniformly across the country, fluctuations have been noticed in the crime rate from year-to-year, but a major trend has been observed. From 1962 to 1991, the crime rate increased steadily, and then started to decline. This trend is most notable for property crime, but it is also the case for violent crime and other Criminal Code offences.

In 2013, the police-reported crime rate was at its lowest point since 1969 Description for Chart 1 Police-reported crime rate, Canada, 1962 to 2013 Year Violent crimes Property crimes Other crimes Total rate per 100,000 population 1962 221 1,891 659 2,771 1963 249 2,047 726 3,022 1964 284 2,146 815 3,245 1965 299 2,091 809 3,199 1966 347 2,258 907 3,511 1967 381 2,484 985 3,850 1968 423 2,826 1,087 4,336 1969 453 3,120 1,164 4,737 1970 481 3,515 1,217 5,212 1971 492 3,649 1,170 5,311 1972 497 3,634 1,224 5,355 1973 524 3,704 1,546 5,773 1974 553 4,151 1,684 6,388 1975 585 4,498 1,769 6,852 1976 584 4,533 1,867 6,984 1977 572 4,466 1,933 6,971 1978 580 4,579 1,995 7,154 1979 610 4,903 2,153 7,666 1980 636 5,444 2,263 8,343 1981 654 5,759 2,322 8,736 1982 671 5,840 2,262 8,773 1983 679 5,608 2,182 8,470 1984 701 5,501 2,185 8,387 1985 735 5,451 2,227 8,413 1986 785 5,550 2,392 8,727 1987 829 5,553 2,575 8,957 1988 868 5,439 2,613 8,919 1989 911 5,289 2,692 8,892 1990 973 5,612 2,900 9,485 1991 1,059 6,160 3,122 10,342 1992 1,084 5,904 3,052 10,040 1993 1,082 5,575 2,881 9,538 1994 1,047 5,257 2,821 9,125 1995 1,009 5,292 2,707 9,008 1996 1,002 5,274 2,656 8,932 1997 993 4,880 2,603 8,475 1998 995 4,569 2,529 8,093 1999 971 4,276 2,449 7,695 2000 996 4,081 2,534 7,610 2001 995 4,004 2,593 7,592 2002 980 3,976 2,560 7,516 2003 978 4,125 2,670 7,773 2004 957 3,976 2,668 7,601 2005 962 3,744 2,620 7,326 2006 968 3,605 2,673 7,246 2007 952 3,335 2,621 6,908 2008 938 3,096 2,598 6,632 2009 926 3,005 2,531 6,462 2010 907 2,802 2,451 6,160 2011 869 2,586 2,324 5,780 2012 841 2,521 2,269 5,632 2013 766 2,342 2,082 5,191 In 2013, the police-reported crime rate was at its lowest point since 1969. Experts have not reached a consensus on why crime has been declining since the 1990s, but several factors have been cited as possible explanations. These factors include an aging population, changing policing practices and strategies, the rise of technology, shifts in unemployment, variations in alcohol consumption, neighbourhood characteristics, or changing attitudes towards illegal and risky behaviour. Despite the inability to identify a single factor which explains the crime rate decline in Canada, similar downward trends in crime rates have also been observed in other countries.

Homicide rate also following downward trend Description for Chart 2 Homicides and attempted murders, Canada, 1962 to 2013

Table summary

The table depicts homicides and attempted murders in Canada by population as column headers, and the years from 1962 to 2013 as row headers. Year Homicide Attempted murder Population 1962 1.43 0.5 18,583,057 1963 1.32 0.6 18,930,418 1964 1.31 0.6 19,290,468 1965 1.41 0.6 19,644,460 1966 1.25 0.7 20,014,880 1967 1.66 0.7 20,378,022 1968 1.81 0.9 20,701,107 1969 1.86 1.0 21,001,013 1970 2.19 1.2 21,297,099 1971 2.15 1.5 21,961,999 1972 2.34 1.9 22,218,475 1973 2.43 2.1 22,491,757 1974 2.63 2.3 22,807,918 1975 3.03 2.8 23,143,192 1976 2.85 3.0 23,449,791 1977 3.00 2.9 23,725,921 1978 2.76 3.1 23,963,370 1979 2.61 3.1 24,201,801 1980 2.41 3.2 24,516,071 1981 2.61 3.6 24,820,393 1982 2.66 3.8 25,117,442 1983 2.69 3.5 25,366,969 1984 2.60 3.6 25,607,651 1985 2.72 3.3 25,842,736 1986 2.18 3.4 26,101,155 1987 2.43 3.5 26,448,855 1988 2.15 3.1 26,795,383 1989 2.41 3.0 27,281,795 1990 2.38 3.3 27,697,530 1991 2.69 3.7 28,031,394 1992 2.58 3.7 28,366,737 1993 2.19 3.4 28,681,676 1994 2.06 3.2 28,999,006 1995 2.01 3.2 29,302,091 1996 2.14 3.0 29,610,757 1997 1.96 2.9 29,907,172 1998 1.85 2.5 30,157,082 1999 1.77 2.3 30,403,878 2000 1.78 2.5 30,689,035 2001 1.78 2.3 31,019,020 2002 1.86 2.2 31,353,656 2003 1.74 2.2 31,639,670 2004 1.95 2.1 31,940,676 2005 2.06 2.5 32,245,209 2006 1.86 2.6 32,570,505 2007 1.81 2.4 32,887,928 2008 1.84 2.2 33,245,773 2009 1.81 2.4 33,628,571 2010 1.63 2.0 34,005,274 2011 1.74 1.9 34,342,780 2012 1.56 1.9 34,754,312 2013 1.44 1.8 35,158,304 The homicide rate, due to its consistent and reliable reporting to police, is often used as an indicator of the level of violence in a society. In Canada, the homicide rate more than doubled between 1961 and 1975, when it reached its highest point. While there is variance in the homicide rate year-to-year, due to relatively small numbers, since peaking in 1975 the homicide rate has generally been declining. Homicide was a relatively rare event in Canada in 2013, representing less than 1% of all violent crime. In total, police reported 505 homicides in 2013, 38 fewer than the previous year. As a result, the national homicide rate declined to 1.44 per 100,000 population in 2013, marking an 8% decrease from the previous year and the lowest homicide rate recorded since 1966. The attempted murder rate also decreased in 2013 to 1.83 victims per 100,000 population, marking a 5% decline from the previous year and the lowest attempted murder rate since 1971. Similar to the overall crime rate, many countries have also reported declines in their homicide and attempted murder rates in recent years.

Motivations related to the decline Several factors commonly mentioned by experts as possible explanations for the decline in crime may be related primarily to certain types of crime. For example, multivariate analysis performed by the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics indicated that changes in inflation tend to have the most association with changes in crime that is financially motivated (i.e., robbery, break and enter, motor vehicle theft), while changes in alcohol consumption and unemployment rates are correlated with changes in the homicide rate, and changes in the population's age and gender are associated with changes in the rate of break and enters. As well, legislative changes introduced in Canada—such as amendments to the Criminal Code regarding sexual assault and the Young Offenders Act, which was followed by the Youth Criminal Justice Act on April 1, 2003 (Department of Justice)—have the potential to affect crime rates by expanding definitions and criminalizing certain behaviours not previously considered a crime, or by decriminalizing others.

Definitions Crime rate: Refers to the number of Criminal Code offences in an area reported to the police per 100,000 population in that area. Crime Severity Index: Refers to a measure of police-reported crime that measures both the volume and seriousness of police-reported crime in Canada.