Updated in August 2020.

Overview

A comprehensive overview of crime with a focus on violent crime in the United States.

Yearly sources/links are included for FBI and National Crime Survey data.

Keywords: Crime, violent crime, crime rates, crime statistics, violence, crime in the United States, crime in the US, crime in America, crime research, FBI, National Crime Survey, National Crime Victimization Survey, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Gallup

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Author

Leonard A. Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.

An Analysis of Crime And Fear of Crime Data for Recent Years

This article offers a comprehensive overview of crime since 2015 with a focus on violent crime in the United States.

This report is broken into four sections:

1. An analysis of crime data for recent years (2015-2020) with an emphasis on violent crime.

2. It includes FBI and National Crime Survey data including links (below). The FBI offers crimes reported to law enforcement agencies, where the National Crime Victimization Survey (referred to here as the National Crime Survey) counts all crime through a methodology similar to the national census. A minority of crime is reported to law enforcement (i.e., 43 percent of violent crime is reported) hence the need for a national survey. Both are US Department of Justice agencies. The National Crime Survey originates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

3. There is additional data from Gallup and other sources offering a national perspective on violent, personal, and household crime.

4. There is an explanation of the differences in the FBI (crimes reported to law enforcement) and the National Crime Survey (a measure of all crime) at the bottom of this report.

Property Crime

While most of this report focuses on violent crime, it’s important to note that there continues to be a considerable and continuous decrease in property crime over time with some exceptions.

The Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic, The Death Of George Floyd, Subsequent Riots, Protests And The Dramatic Increase In Urban Violent Crime

This report has substantially changed from earlier versions to reflect current events.

There are profound changes currently underway within American society regarding the Coronavirus pandemic, the loosening of COVID restrictions, the death of George Floyd (Wikipedia) the resulting protests and riots, and the dramatic increase in violence in many U.S. cities. Some suggest that we are experiencing the fastest rise in murder rates since the late 1960s, NY Post.

Context-Historic Lows Before 2015

Data from the National Crime Survey state that we were at record historical lows for criminal activity. From 1993 to 2015, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

Using the FBI numbers, the violent crime rate fell 48% between 1993 and 2016. Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (National Crime Survey), the rate fell 74% during that span.

Have Past Record Lows for Violent Crime Ended?

This used to be a difficult question before the loosening of COVID pandemic restrictions, the riots and protests after the death of George Floyd, and a significant increase in violent crime in many American cities.

The answer as to record lows for violent crime ending is “yes” per the National Crime Survey for 2018, Gallup, the Major Cities Chiefs Association and the University of Missouri, but the bottom line is that violent and property crimes are still at record lows for the country and, generally speaking, have been decreasing for the last two decades except for recent years (since 2015).

The principal reason for any confusion is the increase in “all” violent crime as measured by the National Crime Survey, Bureau Of Justice Statistics, and measures of “reported” crime compiled from local law enforcement agencies via the FBI.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Crime Survey reports an increase in violent crime of 28 percent from 2015-2018.

The number of persons who had been victims of violent crime is up 17 percent from 2015-2017 per the National Crime Survey.

The National Crime Survey states that the number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018.

Per the National Crime Survey, the seriousness of violent crimes also increased, Serious Violence.

Per Gallup, “Each year since 2017, 15% of U.S. adults have indicated they were victimized by crime in the past year. A subset of that, between 1% and 3%, have reported being the victim of a violent crime.” One percent of Americans were victimized by violent crime in 2016. That tripled to three percent in 2019. 2019 is the first year where violent crime reached three percent, Gallup.

We have a report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association documenting a rise in homicides and reported aggravated assaults for 2019, Major Cities Chiefs.

There is a study from the University of Missouri measuring crime in May and June of 2020 indicating that homicides were up 37 percent, aggravated assaults rose 35 percent, and robberies increased by 27 percent, The Crime Report.

But per crimes reported to the FBI, violent crime increased in 2015 and 2016 but decreased slightly in 2017 (violence was essentially flat). In 2018 there was a decrease of 3.3 percent. It decreased again by 3.1 percent for the first half of 2019.

Fundamental Question Regarding Rising Violence

Critics insist that crime is down per FBI data based on crimes reported to law enforcement (most violent crimes are not reported).

Thus we have a fundamental question, which holds more importance, a 28 percent increase in all violent crime per the National Crime Survey (2015-2018), a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, a rise in homicides and aggravated assaults in 2019 per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a considerable and recent rise in homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies by the University of Missouri, or a 3.3 percent decrease in 2018 and a 3.1 percent decrease for the first half of 2019 for reported crime from the FBI?

Crime is Increasing In American Cities

There is no one article documenting the considerable rise in urban violent crime during the summer of 2020, but news reports suggest that the cities where protests and or riots have occurred are being hit the hardest, Governing.Com.

It’s African American communities that are bearing the brunt of the violence, NBC News.

In some cities where violence decreased before the lifting of COVID restrictions, they still have very high rates of violent crime. During the lockdowns during the pandemic, Baltimore, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Chicago all have witnessed a drop in crime of more than 30%. Violent crimes such as aggravated assaults and robberies also fell substantially, probably guided by the pandemic, NPR.

Yet all of these cities had relatively high rates of violence or increased shootings and homicides both before and after COVID restrictions were lifted.

For a starting point for a list of cities with increases in violence, see Fox News or the Wall Street Journal.

Critics Of This Analysis

It’s fair to state that there are people who disagree with this analysis based on historical lows in crime (which ended in 2015) and the uncertainty of the COVID-crime experience. Several will point to considerable decreases in violent crime during the COVID lockdowns.

There still are people (and organizations) who insist that crime has decreased, not increased and that the current violence in cities is overblown.

For those looking for a more nuanced analysis, VOX offers the following: The data backs up the headlines, suggesting that homicide numbers are significantly higher in at least some major US cities. But it’s not clear if this is part of a nationwide phenomenon, or if it’s something isolated to urban centers, because we don’t have good data outside the large cities. To make matters more confusing, other types of crime, including violent crime overall, appear to have decreased in many of the same cities, VOX. Also see FiveThirtyEight.

43% Of Violent Victimizations Were Reported To Police

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the increase in the rate of violent victimizations was largely due to crimes that were not reported to police (emphasis added). From 2015 to 2018, the rate of violent victimizations that went unreported to police rose from 9.5 to 12.9 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

Based on the 2018 National Crime Survey, less than half (43%) of violent victimizations were reported to the police. There were some statistically significant changes from 2017 to 2018 by type of violent crime reported to the police. The percentage of rape or sexual assault victimizations reported to police declined from 40% to 25%, while the percentage of robbery victimizations reported to police increased from 49% to 63%, Reported Crime.

As stated, the fundamental reason for the National Crime Survey is an accounting of crime reported and unreported to law enforcement.

Fear of Crime

After the riots and protests of 2020, a majority of Americans say they are concerned about rising crime in U.S. cities, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill. Seventy-seven percent of respondents say they are concerned that crime is rising in the nation’s cities, while 46 percent of respondents said they were concerned about rising crime in their own communities, The Hill.

Mass Shootings: In the wake of two August mass shootings that claimed the lives of 31 people in one weekend, Americans are more worried about themselves or a family member being the victim of a mass shooting than they were after two previous massacres. Currently, 48% of U.S. adults are “very” or “somewhat” worried, compared with 39% in 2017 after one gunman killed 58 people in Las Vegas and 38% in 2015 after a San Bernardino shooter left 14 dead, Gallup.

Worry About Crime: 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (April 2019), Gallup.

Fear of crime was the top national concern in 2018. Per Gallup, 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (down from 78 percent in March 2018), which was the same as health care, the top concern, Fear of Crime. Gallup asked those polled if they worried about topics a great deal or a fair amount. Crime was ranked the same as health care using a combined score.

Half of Americans believe crime is very or extremely serious. In 2018, just under half (49%) of Americans believe the problem of crime in the United States is very or extremely serious — a 10-percentage-point drop and the first time the number has been below 50% since 2005, Serious Crime Concerns.

Summation

The Coronavirus pandemic and the lifting of COVID restrictions plus the death of George Floyd plus the riots and protests added to the remarkable increase in violent crime for many American cities places the discussion of crime in America into a different dimension. There were increases in violence for many cities and states before the above-mentioned incidents.

There are those insisting that we have never lived in safer times due to an almost continuous (and considerable) twenty-year plus decline in crime, but that argument has ended since the increases in violence began in 2015 and the dramatic events in 2020.

Identity Theft

Identity theft is increasing from 7% in 2014 to 10% in 2016, Bureau of Justice Statistics.

See More

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Links to FBI, National Crime Survey, and Gallup data are below.

Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.

FBI and National Crime Survey Data Plus Links

Brief Summation-FBI-Crimes Reported to Police

Violent crime decreased by 3.1 percent for the first six months of 2019

Violent crime decreased by 3.3 percent for 2018

Violent crimes decreased by 0.2 percent in 2017

Violent crime increased in 2016

Violent crime increased in 2015

Violent and property crime decreased in 2013 and 2014

Lowest murder rate since 1960 but violent crime increased in 2012

Brief Summation-National Crime Survey:

2018-Violent Crime: From 2015 to 2018, the total number of violent victimizations increased by 28%. The rate of total violent victimizations also increased. The number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018. Serious violent crime increases. Property crime continues to decrease.

2017-For the second straight year, the number of victims of violent crime was higher than in 2015. Most of the sixteen categories of violent crime rates increased from 2015 to 2017. Some were flat. Three decreased. Property crime decreased.

2016-Categories of violent crime increased. Property crime increased for the first time since 2013. There was no statistically significant change in the rate of overall violent crime from 2015, yet the rate increased (18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older) to 2016 (19.7 per 1,000).

2015-Violent crime flat, property crime decreased

2014-Violent and property crime declined

2013-Violent and property crime declined

2011-2012-The violent crime rate had declined for nearly two decades before increasing in 2011 and 2012

FBI-Crimes Reported to Police-Extended Summary of Recent Years

2019: Violent crime fell by 3.1 percent for the first six months of 2019. Property crime decreased by 5.6 percent.

2018: Violent crime declined 3.3 percent between 2017 and 2018. Property crime decreased 6.3 percent during the same time period

2017: After two consecutive years of increases, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased by 0.2 percent in 2017 when compared with 2016 data, according to FBI figures released today. Property crimes dropped 3.0 percent, marking the 15th consecutive year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

2016: For all of 2016, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased for the second straight year, rising 4.1 percent in 2016 when compared with 2015 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 1.3 percent, marking the 14th consecutive year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

In 2016, there were an estimated 1,248,185 violent crimes. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased by 8.6 percent when compared with estimates from 2015. Aggravated assault and rape (legacy definition) offenses increased 5.1 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, and robbery increased 1.2 percent.

2015: After two years of decline (reported crime was mostly flat in 2014 with a slight decrease), the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased 3.9 percent in 2015 when compared with 2014 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 2.6 percent, marking the thirteenth straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

In 2015, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter increased 10.8 percent when compared with estimates from 2014. Rape (legacy definition) and aggravated assault increased 6.3 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, while robbery increased 1.4 percent.

2014: The FBI reports preliminary figures indicating that law enforcement agencies throughout the nation showed an overall decrease of 4.6 percent in the number of violent crimes for the first 6 months of 2014 when compared with figures reported for the same time in 2013. The violent crime category includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. The number of property crimes in the United States from January to June of 2014 decreased by 7.5 percent when compared with data for the same time period in 2013.

However, when the FBI released its full report for 2014, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased by 0.2 percent in 2014 when compared with 2013 data. Aggravated assault and rapes increased. Property crimes decreased by 4.3 percent, marking the 12th straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined. Based on the full report in 2014, and with endless news reports documenting increases in homicide and violence in cities throughout the country, we predicted an increase in violent crime for 2015. See Crime in America.

2013: Per the FBI, the estimated number of violent crimes in 2013 decreased by 4.4 percent when compared with 2012 figures, and the estimated number of property crimes decreased by 4.1 percent. There were an estimated 1,163,146 violent crimes reported to law enforcement last year, along with an estimated 8,632,512 property crimes. Property crimes decreased 4.1 percent in 2013, marking the 11th straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

2012: The FBI estimated that in 2012 the number of violent crimes increased by 0.7 percent. However, property crimes decreased 0.9 percent, marking the tenth straight year of declines for these offenses, collectively.

National Crime Survey-Extended Summary of Recent Years

2018, Violent Crime: From 2015 to 2018, the total number of violent victimizations increased by 28%.

The rate of total violent victimizations also increased. The number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018.

Property crime continues to decrease. Serious violent crime increased.

2017, For the National Crime Survey (released in December of 2018) most of the sixteen categories of violent crime rates increased from 2015 to 2017. Some were flat. Three decreased.

There was no statistically significant increase from 2016 to 2017 in the number of residents who had been victims of violent crime, while there was a statistically significant increase from 2015 to 2017.

For the second straight year, the number of victims of violent crime was higher than in 2015.

The number of persons age 12 or older who had been victims of violent crime rose from 2.7 million in 2015 to 2.9 million in 2016 (up 9 percent from 2015) and 3.1 million in 2017 (up 17 percent from 2015). The 2-year increase in the number of violent-crime victims was 455,700.

2016, based on revised estimates (released on October 18, 2018) from the National Crime Victimization Survey, from 2015 to 2016, violent criminal victimizations increased for a variety of categories. Property crime increased for the first time since 2013. The revised estimates replace previously released 2016 estimates that did not permit year-to-year comparisons.

From 2015 to 2016, the number of persons experiencing one or more violent victimizations increased from 2.7 million to 2.9 million.

From 2015 to 2016, the number of violent crimes increased from 5,006,620 to 5,353,820.

There was no statistically significant change in the rate of overall violent crime from 2015, yet the rate increased (18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older) to 2016 (19.7 per 1,000).

2015, there was no statistically significant change in the overall rate of violent crime, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS).

The rate of violent victimization was 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2015.

2014, violent crime rates decreased from 2013 (23.2 victimizations per 1,000) to 20.1 per 1,000 in 2014.

The overall property crime rate (which includes household burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft) decreased from 131.4 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2013 to 118.1 victimizations per 1,000 in 2014.

In 2013, the overall violent crime rate declined slightly from 26.1 to 23.2 victimizations per 1,000 U.S. residents from 2012 to 2013, per the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The violent crime rate had declined for nearly two decades before increasing in 2011 and 2012.

The overall property crime rate, which includes burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft, also decreased after two consecutive years of increases. From 2012 to 2013, the rate declined from 155.8 to 131.4 victimizations per 1,000 U.S. households.

In 2012, for the second consecutive year, violent and property crime rates increased. The overall violent crime rate (which includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated and simple assault) rose from 22.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2011 to 26.1 in 2012

The latest data involving crimes reported to law enforcement agencies (through the FBI) includes

For the latest data from the National Crime Survey, see

The complete list of the “Criminal Victimization” series (1993 to today) is available at Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.

Gallup And Additional Data on Crime

There are three traditional sources for violence and crime in the U.S., the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Survey, and Gallup.

Per Gallup (February 2020), “Each year since 2017, 15% of U.S. adults have indicated they were victimized by crime in the past year. A subset of that, between 1% and 3%, have reported being the victim of a violent crime.” One percent of Americans were victimized by violent crime in 2016. That tripled to three percent in 2019. 2019 is the first year where violent crime reached three percent, Gallup.

Per Gallup (November 2016) Americans’ direct experience with crime is at a 16-year high, consistent with a gradual increase — from 22% in 2001 to 29% today — in the percentage saying that they or a household member was the victim of a robbery, vandalism or violent crime in the past year, see Gallup-Crime.

Per Gallup-household crime was at its highest point since 2001.

But Gallup then offered their November 2017 report which addressed personal and household crime, Asked about their own experiences rather than the situation for their household as a whole, 15% of U.S. adults say they have been the victim of at least one of the crimes.

For personal crime, that is an insignificant drop of one percentage point from last year’s 16%.

Twenty-two percent of Americans say a conventional crime was committed against their household in the previous 12 months, the lowest proportion since 2001, see Gallup-Crime-2017.

So within two years, we have both the highest and lowest measures of household crime but an insignificant drop in personal crime.

Per Gallup, household crime for 2018 increased. 24% of households were victimized by violent or property crimes (excluding cybercrimes) in 2018, up from the 22% who said the same last year.

Beyond the 24 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 23% of U.S. households were victimized by cybercrime in 2018, Gallup-2018.

From a 2017 DOJ Report-Repeat Victimization 50 Percent of All Violent Victimization

From 2005 to 2014, an average of 3.2 million persons age 12 or older experienced one or more nonfatal violent victimizations each year per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

About 1 in 5 of these victims (19 percent) experienced repeat victimization, defined as two or more violent victimizations during the year.

Repeat victims accounted for a disproportionate percentage of all violent victimizations that occurred each year.

In 2014, the 19 percent of violent crime victims who experienced repeat victimization accounted for 50 percent of all violent victimizations, Bureau Of Justice Statistics.

Three National Measures of Violence-The FBI, the National Crime Survey and Gallup

The average person simply wants to know if crime went up or down, but the answer is confusing due to two measures used (victimization surveys via the National Crime Survey and crimes reported to police via the Uniform Crime Report from the FBI), and reports throughout the United States that homicide and violent crime is increasing. A variety of data is presented here for your consideration.

Both the National Crime Survey and the Uniform Crime Report are products of two agencies within the US Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The two measures are explained below.

There are an endless number of violent crimes that are not reported (thus the need for the National Crime Survey) because participants see the event as a private matter, or not serious enough to report to the police. For example, a friend could hit you with a beer bottle (a violent crime involving a weapon) but you have no intention of reporting it to law enforcement. But if you were contacted by the National Crime Survey, they will ask if you were the victim of an act of violence or if anyone used a weapon or object to attack you.

Most violent crimes are not reported to police, thus the majority of violent crime victims do not want police involvement, or do not see it as being in their best interest to report the incident, or are too afraid to report.

Some simplify the two measures by suggesting that crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI are a measure of events crime victims deem serious (serious enough to report) versus a measure of all crime (regardless of significance) through the National Crime Survey. Obviously, this observation does not include fear of reporting crime.

There is, however, a third source for crime information from Gallup accessing individuals, households, and fear of crime. But ninety percent of the crime discussion focuses on the two reports from the Department of Justice.

Note that the FBI is transitioning from the Uniform Crime Reports to the National Incident-Based Reporting System which will provide more detail and higher quality information on criminal activity in the United States. The NIBRS is slated to replace the traditional Uniform Crime Reports in 2021.

Contact

Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.