Auf knapp 95 Milliarden Euro beziffert die Bundesregierung die bis 2020 absehbaren Kosten der Zuwanderung seit dem Sommer 2015. Das sind nur die für den Bund, Ausgleichszahlungen an die Länder immerhin eingeschlossen. Die Gesamtkosten werden weitaus höher sein. „Langfristig“ auf 25 bis 55 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr schätzt sie das Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft, und von den Modellszenarien, die es dabei voraussetzt, dürfte das skeptischste der Wirklichkeit am nächsten kommen. Folgekosten sind nicht einkalkuliert, 15 000 neue Stellen bei der Polizei zum Beispiel und Tausende weitere in der Verwaltung und ihrer Gerichtsbarkeit.

Auch soziale Kosten fehlen in der Rechnung, etwa die der vergleichsweise hohen Kriminalitätsbelastung von Zuwanderern mit Gewalt-, Eigentums- und Sexualdelikten oder die einer wachsenden Verwahrlosung von Teilen des öffentlichen Raums, seines Unwirtlich-, ja, Unfriedlichwerdens in den großen Städten und schließlich die der Verdrängung des Rechts aus den Machtsphären dominanter Mehrheiten von Migranten in ganzen Stadtvierteln.

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