TONY Abbott is a fighter. And he is not the sort of fighter who stands around waiting to be hit. He hits first. And there are growing signs he is itching to hit Bill Shorten.

He has been boasting that if the Coalition started an election campaign only four points ­behind Labor, he’d win.

A colleague who was ­recently part of such a discussion with the Prime Minister said yesterday: “It’s as though he regards a 52 to 48 per cent Labor lead in opinion polls as the new 50-50.”

Back in mid-March, when word leaked out that a double dissolution election had been discussed at cabinet level, there was general acceptance the option had been rejected.

The argument the Coalition was too far behind in the polls to entertain such thoughts seemed persuasive.

So did concern that the lower vote quota required to elect a senator in a double dissolution election would help minor parties and result in an even more dysfunctional upper house.

“The government intends to serve a full term,” Abbott said firmly. We believed him.

But now doubts are growing, inside the government as well as outside. Some experienced political operators putting together the clues are starting to think Abbott might be serious about an election for both houses in the wake of Tuesday week’s Budget.

One cabinet minister who sneered at the idea only a few weeks ago is known to have ­remarked recently: “It’s not beyond the realms of possibility.”

The government’s pre-Budget scene-setting provides some of the clues.

It will be, we are told, a “dull” Budget, in that — unlike last year — there will be no nasty surprises.

media_camera Prime Minister Tony Abbott with Opposition Leader Bill Shorten at the 25/25 Ovarian Cancer event in Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Gary Ramage

One of those nasties from Treasurer Joe Hockey’s 2014 Budget — the plan, blocked in the senate, to hit pensions by changing the way they are indexed — will be scrapped. It threatened to alienate an important part of the Coalition’s voting base.

The focus will be on good news. A families’ package. A revamped childcare system to give working parents a budget boost. Job creation measures.

“It will be pushing a message of optimism,” says a ­bureaucrat involved in the Budget process.

The “debt and deficit” scare and talk about a “budget emergency” are off the agenda. Liberal MPs say Hockey has reassured them there will be no significant savings measures in the 2015 Budget.

type_quote_start It will be, we are told, a “dull” Budget, in that — unlike last year — there will be no nasty surprises type_quote_end

Given sliding revenue and pressure for budget repair, could the government really contemplate a second such package in 2016, which is supposed to be the election year?

Another possible early election clue is the decision to extend funding for mental health services and drug and alcohol treatment and rehabilitation programs by just 12 months.

If the election is really going to be held when it is due late next year, some Coalition MPs ask themselves, what would be the point of a funding arrangement designed to cut out just before that?

Then there is the midyear deadline set for an interim report from Abbott’s task force on the scourge of crystal methamphetamine — or ice.

Given the Prime Minister’s closest advisers are known to want law and order alongside national security at the centre of the next campaign, that timing could fit nicely with an early trip to the polls.

Then there are the white papers being produced on politically difficult issues such as taxation and federalism. Abbott’s enthusiasm for long debates leading to policy proposals that he would take to the next election is said to have waned along with his poll ratings. A snap election would ease the pressure.

There is another straw in the wind involving education minister Christopher Pyne, who kicked off the election chatter in March.

Colleagues say Pyne is talking about reintroducing his ­defeated university deregulation legislation so it can join the Clean Energy Finance Corporation Abolition Bill as a double dissolution trigger.

To all this, of course, can be added what some ministers call Abbott’s “paranoia” about Malcolm Turnbull since the shock of 39 Liberal MPs voting for a leadership spill.

It would not have been eased by news spreading among Liberals that a high profile party official, formerly an Abbott ally, has climbed aboard the Turnbull cart. A quick election after the Budget would head off any challenge.

As for a double dissolution leading to more independents and micro-parties, proposed reforms to the senate voting system would help there.

But, to avoid angering the senate crossbenchers while it still needs them, the government would probably only legislate those reforms just before an election.

If the Coalition got a Budget poll bounce and it was closely followed by a senate voting ­reform bill, that would be the biggest clue of all.

Laurie Oakes is Nine Network political editor.