James B. Nelson

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel





More than six years ago as a candidate for governor, Republican Scott Walker promised that if he was elected, the state would add 250,000 private-sector jobs in four years.

That goal continues to be elusive.

A report issued Thursday by the state Department of Workforce Development includes the final job creation tally for 2016, allowing a look at six complete years under Walker. The latest report showed that the state lost 4,000 jobs in December, putting total state private-sector employment at 2,516,100.

For all of 2016, state reports show that employers added 17,200 jobs, by far the lowest annual tally since Walker took office in January 2011.

The total number of jobs created since Walker took office is 185,208, or 64,792 short of Walker's goal of 250,000.

For our tally, we used the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — which surveys nearly all state businesses — to get annual figures for years 2011 through 2015. We combined that with monthly survey data — from reports gathered from a small percentage of state businesses — for 2016. (The more accurate final census data won't be available for 2016 until later in the spring.)

During Walker's first term, PolitiFact Wisconsin tracked the job count because it was the governor's No. 1 campaign promise. PolitiFact rated it a Promise Broken in September 2014 after experts determined that it was impossible for the 250,000 goal to be reached during Walker's first four years.

POLITIFACT: Walk-O-Meter: Create 250,000 new jobs

So why has job creation remained so sluggish — it slipped in 2016 — in the Badger State? We asked Walker's office and several experts and business community leaders for their insights.

Walker's spokesman Tom Evenson didn't address the jobs figures in his response.

"Wisconsin’s business climate has consistently improved from one of the worst in the nation to one of the best under Governor Walker, and our state’s economy is in the best shape it’s been in 16 years," Evenson said in an email. "We’ve seen more people employed than ever before, wages are up, and Wisconsin’s labor force participation rate continues to be one of the best in the country."

Evenson said Walker's "No. 1 focus" is the state's workforce.

Wells Fargo economist Brian Jacobsen said 2015 and 2016 were not good years for U.S. manufacturers.

"Wisconsin employment improved at a slightly slower pace," he said in an email. Through September 2016, statewide employment rose 2.1% from December 2014, he said, but manufacturing employment grew only 0.3%. For the U.S., employment rose 2.6% while manufacturing employment grew 0.5%.

"But Milwaukee sticks out like a sore thumb," Jacobsen said, noting that "employment grew a mere 0.3%. Manufacturing employment shrank 0.3%."

Jacobsen said that Wisconsin's performance "wasn't much of an aberration" compared with the national figures because of slow population growth in this state. From 2010 to 2015, Wisconsin's population grew 1.5%. The U.S. population grew 4.1%.

Tim Sheehy, president of the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce, said governors have little control over the economy.

"In a counterintuitive way, part of what is working against the governor is low unemployment, if the state is at 4.1%, anything below 5 is full employment," he said in an email. Sheehy noted that some parts of the Milwaukee metro area showed unemployment at under 4%.

"Companies are struggling to find workers," he said, noting that Quad/Graphics had more than 400 openings and Froedtert Hospital listed 900.

"Wisconsin’s problem going forward is not so much more jobs, but filling them, and this will be a long-term systemic issue ..."

Marquette University economics professor Abdur Chowdhury agreed that a workforce skills gap was among the factors contributing to what he called a "malaise."

"There are lots of jobs available, but employers are finding it hard to fill those positions. Wisconsin is below average in the percentage of college graduates, ranking 30th, despite being 14th in state and local per capita spending on higher education," he said.

Chowdhury said Wisconsin has suffered from a "significant amount of brain drain," with recent estimates showing that the state loses about 10,000 college graduates each year.

He also noted that the state's population was growing increasingly older.

"The national economic recovery has been called 'metro-centric,' with cities leading the growth," Chowdhury said. In the past, he said, Madison and Milwaukee led the way for Wisconsin but not so much in recent years.

Retired executive and business climate analyst John Torinus, who advised Walker on the original jobs pledge, said: "Our job creation engine has been running at half-speed — about 1% per year in job growth instead of 2%."

"We know now that recruiting from out of state doesn't work. We know the real estate development follows, not leads, job creation," Torinus said. "We know that manufacturing is automating and leaning so rapidly that it will not be an engine for job growth, even though its exports help the state's wealth creation greatly. Ditto for agri-business, the other major platform for the Wisconsin economy."

Most new job and economic growth will come from start-ups, Torinus said, adding that "we are doing better on that score" in part due to state tax credits.

Finally, Mike Knetter, an economist and president and CEO of the University of Wisconsin Foundation, said the quality of jobs is more important than the number of them.

"I think a better goal for Wisconsin is to improve the pay of the jobs we have in this state," Knetter said. "It's more about boosting the quality of jobs that we have."

He said the state needs to look at industries nationally that are in high growth mode.