A new poll of likely voters in the crowded and widely watched 50th Congressional District race shows indicted incumbent Duncan Hunter facing an uphill climb to re-election, trailing three candidates.

In the poll, Hunter, with 11 percent of the vote, is trailing GOP opponents Carl DeMaio (20 percent) and Darrell Issa (16 percent) while lone Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, who narrowly lost to Hunter a year ago, leads with 31 percent. State Sen. Brian Jones polled at 4 percent. Then came two independents, Helen Horvath and David Edick Jr., with 2 percent and 1 percent respectively. Fifteen percent of the voters were undecided.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for the Union-Tribune and 10News, the poll of 592 likely voters was taken between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 and comes five months before the March 3 primary. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election in November 2020.

Among a subset of voters who said they are “certain” to vote, Campa-Najjar’s total increases to 34 percent and DeMaio’s to 22. Hunter’s support drops to 9 percent.


The 50th District covers a swath of the county east and north of San Diego, a region that has shown strong loyalty to the Hunter name for decades. Duncan L. Hunter Sr. served in Congress from 1981 to 2009, and his son Duncan D. Hunter is in his sixth two-year term.

His victory last year by just under 9,000 votes came about 10 weeks after he was indicted on federal charges of illegally spending $250,000 in campaign funds on personal expenses. He has pleaded not guilty and is awaiting a trial scheduled for January.

In the poll, almost twice as many voters said they have a negative impression of Hunter as those who hold a positive view. Almost 60 percent said the evidence in the corruption case against him suggests “he may have broken the law,” while 13 percent believe the charges are “a partisan witch hunt,” which has been Hunter’s take on the prosecution.

Voters also said one of the most important issues for them is the “character of the candidate.” That tied in their rankings with border security and holding President Donald Trump “accountable for his actions.” Hunter has been a strong supporter of the president.


Other top issues: “rallying behind the president,” and climate change.

The 50th District has more registered Republicans than Democrats, and that was reflected in the poll. Of the likely voters surveyed, 44 percent are Republican and 30 percent Democrat; 24 percent are independent. Among the Republicans, DeMaio leads, followed closely by Issa. As the only Democrat in the race, Campa-Najjar was the overwhelming choice among those voters and also polled first with independents.

Campa-Najjar also scored well in the “character of the candidate” question, getting half the vote of those who consider that the most important issue, 31 points ahead of DeMaio. Three-fourths of the voters who ranked “holding the president accountable” as their chief concern favored Campa-Najjar, 15 times more than the next competitor.

But among the top four candidates in the overall poll, Campa-Najjar also had the largest percentage of voters, 32, who said they are “unfamiliar” with him. DeMaio was next, at 21 percent.


DeMaio, a former San Diego City Council member, and Issa, a former congressman, tied among voters who said border security is the most important issue.

Hunter scored highest on only one issue, government spending, where he tied DeMaio.

Of the five congressional districts in San Diego County, the 50th is the only one held by a Republican. Hunter won there by 35 percentage points in 2012, by 42 points in 2014, 27 points in 2016, and 3 points last year.