Food security conditions expected to deteriorate alongside further reductions in purchasing power

Key Messages:

In the coming months, macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue to worsen in Yemen due to severe currency shortages in the absence of additional fiscal intervention, further increasing food prices and restricting access to income. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread in the presence of large-scale humanitarian food assistance. In 2020, it is anticipated that over 17 million people will be in need of monthly humanitarian food assistance. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists and would be possible if conflict significantly disrupts port operations – thereby limiting the country’s capacity to import food – or otherwise restricts food supply to particular areas for a prolonged period of time.

Continued depreciation and disrupted food imports are expected to increase food prices across the country. According to WFP, the national average exchange rate rose 3.7 percent over the previous month to reach 611 YER/USD in January 2020, the highest levels observed since late 2018. According to UNVIM reporting, monthly food import levels through the Red Sea Ports have been declining since October 2020. Meanwhile, in northern areas, access to income is expected to further reduce due to the cessation of salary payments and further disruptions to business and remittance payments resulting from the ban on new bank notes.

Increased conflict has been reported in Sana’a, Ma’rib, Al Jawf, and Ta’izz, while high levels of conflict continue in Al Dali and Al Hudaydah governorates. Since November 2019, levels of conflict (as measured by frequency of fatalities, battles, and explosions including air strikes according to ACLED) have been relatively low in Hajjah and have decreased in Sa’dah. According to OCHA, over 5,000 families have been newly displaced due to conflict in Nihm District in Sana’a, Sirwah District in Ma’rib, and Al Ghayl, Al Hazm, and Al Maton in Al Jawf. Meanwhile, access constraints due to conflict and hostility to humanitarian actors continue to limit the humanitarian response.