If the hardliners in the American and Iranian governments succeed in pushing their countries into another catastrophic Middle East war, let us never forget how avoidable this conflict was.

This won’t be easy because history, even very recent history, seems so forgettable in this hyperkinetic 24/7 media world.

For example, within minutes of Thursday’s announcement of Iran’s downing of an American surveillance drone, the U.S. news networks were already wheeling out their cast of retired military experts to speculate on precisely where the marvellous might of America’s military might hammer Iran in retaliation — and rescue the Iranian people.

Few of them, it seems, remember then vice-president Dick Cheney’s ludicrous prediction in 2003 before the U.S. invasion of Iraq that American soldiers “will, in fact, be greeted as liberators.”

There are other dimensions to this most recent crisis they have likely forgotten, including how it began.

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In 2015, after years of negotiations, the world’s major powers — including the U.S., Russia, China and the key nations in Europe — finally worked out a historic agreement with Iran to prevent it from producing nuclear weapons for at least 15 years. Unlike North Korea, Iran doesn’t have any nuclear weapons.

In exchange, Iran was promised relief from the punishing economic sanctions that had been imposed on it in recent years, and an opportunity to rejoin the international community as a credible member.

The agreement was bitterly opposed by Iran’s regional rivals — Israel and Saudi Arabia — in spite of the prescient warning from U.S. President Barack Obama that war and chaos in the Middle East will not end until they learn how to share the neighbourhood.

In 2017, Donald Trump took over as president and vehemently vowed to pull the U.S. out of the Iran deal. He called the agreement a “disaster” and said that Obama had capitulated to Iran’s demands at the expense of American interests.

Trump claimed that the U.S. had given Iran $150 billion as part of the deal, but that was not true. In fact, the deal lifted a freeze on Iranian assets that were largely held in European, not American, banks. And that amount — money that actually belonged to Iran — was in the $50 billion range, not $150 billion.

Trump also complained the deal allowed Iran to continue funding insurgent proxy groups in Syria and Lebanon that threaten the interests of the U.S. and their allies. Iran, it should be noted, defends support of these groups as a crucial defensive measure against ongoing efforts by the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel to topple the Tehran regime.

Regardless, the decision in 2015 to restrict the agreement with Iran to its nuclear program was actually at the insistence of the U.S. and Europe so that a deal, however narrow, was possible. It was seen as a “first step” leading to normalization in other areas.

Now, four years since that agreement, the International Atomic Energy Commission says Iran has complied with all of its terms and even U.S. officials agree with that. But the same can’t be said of the other side.

In May of last year, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the pact and imposed punishing new sanctions on Iran. His goal has been to cut off Iran’s already-reduced access to world trade, particularly its sale of oil, and it is having a devastating effect on the country.

Prodded by Trump’s hardline advisers, John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, the U.S. seems determined to turn the screws on Iran’s regime by goading it to take some action that would justify military retaliation.

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As these actions, ironically, serve only to strengthen the hand of Iran’s hardliners, they may very soon get their wish.

But, once again, we can be certain they won’t be greeted as “liberators.”

Clarification- July 16, 2019: This article was edited from a previous version to remove quotation marks to make clear that former U.S. president Barack Obama did not specifically state that Israel must ‘share the neighborhood’ with Iran. Those words express the columnist’s perspective on reports of Obama urging Middle East nations, including Israel, to coexist together.

Tony Burman, formerly head of CBC News and Al Jazeera English, is a freelance contributing foreign affairs columnist for the Star. He is based in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: , formerly head of CBC News and Al Jazeera English, is a freelance contributing foreign affairs columnist for the Star. He is based in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: @TonyBurman

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