Why do we use maps?

Maps exist to make sense of confusing data. So it's only natural that at times of political uncertainty (and the 2015 election is mathematically more uncertain than most) we should try and understand it geographically. Maps are utilised to illustrate think pieces and the debates, and they help us make sense of what is going around us, both locally and nationally. "For many people the numbers are just not very evocative -- you can write about the counts of numbers of seats that you're predicting or that people expect, or the vote shared first, but there's something nice about the visualisation," says Ben Lauderdale of LSE and electionforecast.co.uk.

Lauderdale believes it is inevitable that people are drawn to maps due to their aesthetic appeal in a sea of numbers and rhetoric. He also points out that they are also, arguably, the most of practical method making sense of our politics.

You don't see a lot of red by proportion even though Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win very similar numbers of seats Ben Lauderdale, LSE


"Of course in a political system where it is ultimately geographic, where there are single member districts -- there is one MP for each particular area -- it's very natural that people will want to see that."

Geography versus demographics

Election prediction maps fall into roughly two distinct styles -- those that prioritise the geography of the UK as we know it, and those that try to reshape the country, to give a more accurate depiction of population and support. "There are two major styles of maps that you see," Lauderdale tells WIRED. "The ones where you retain the geography as it is, and the emphasis is really on seeing, in this case the UK -- its real geography and seeing relative support, or expected victories in seats overlaid on that. And then all the versions that maybe try to give up a bit of that in exchange for being a bit more proportionate in favour of population or seats."

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The interactive election maps created by both the Economist and FiveThirtyEight both take the geographical approach and as a result, both maps contain a sea of blue -- which if you didn't know anything about the population would suggest to you that the Tories had already won.

FiveThirtyEight


"It's not that they aren't going to win seats, but the seats that they're winning are in geographically large constituencies with lower population densities," Lauderdale points out. "You don't see a lot of red by proportion even though Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win very similar numbers of seats. Sometimes people get annoyed at this and they feel there's something wrong about presenting the data this way -- I don't think that's quite fair."

Map showing percentage of population commuting by train Chris Hanretty

There are benefits to mapping geographically in that those maps can be very useful for the purposes of comparison. For example, Chris Hanretty of electionforecast.com has created a map that shows the percentage of the population commuting by train and therefore the constituencies set to benefit from the price freeze promised by the Conservatives on fares. Compare this against a geographical map and it becomes evident that the seats the freezes will benefit are already Conservative. As such, the policy is, Hanretty points out, "no game-changer".

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An approach that favours population density over physical geography is likely to reflect the potential of success of the two main parties in a more meaningful way.


Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus has an interesting approach, using different shaped blocks that makes it seem as if the UK was just a happy accident that occurred during a game of Tetris. The metropolitan areas of the country have been cut out and represented in enlarged, but correspondingly shaped splodges outside of the map in order to keep the size of the blocks accurate in terms of how they represent the population size. On the zoomable map, you can hone in on constituencies to see the statistics that define them.

Electoral Calculus

Electionforecast.co.uk has used a cartogram, with no geographical boundaries, but a carefully arranged map created from dots -- one per constituency -- so as to focus on the number of dots in each colour, rather than the amount of surface area that has been coloured in blue.

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Electionforecast.co.uk

Using hexagons to represent each constituency is a common approach, and one that has been taken by YouGov. The map not only offers a seemingly fair compromise between geography and demographics, but also allows you to see what people in different constituencies are talking about in real time. Thanks to the mass of data YouGov collects, it probably gives the most in-depth and insightful view into each constituency that goes beyond straightforward politics as you might think of them.

YouGov

Guardian

Perhaps the most interesting representation of the country in this election, however, is the Guardian's interactive map, which also uses a hexagonal approach to try and accurately portray both the population size and location of constituencies. The result is that the UK looks rather like an upside-down chicken drumstick, but the map itself offers a unique view of how the British population is spread out across the country. "I think the Guardian's one is one that I haven't seen before this election," says Lauderdale. "It's got some nice things about it and some things that are less nice about it, but it's an innovation in terms of how to solve this particular problem and I suspect that people will continue to come up with new versions of this."

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London vs the UK

When you think about the influence London will have in the upcoming election it's important to remember that it's all about the population, not the geography. To understand it clearly, look no further than this map put together by Redditor LB4.

Redditor LB4

They have cut up the UK into eight sections, each of which have a smaller population than that of Greater London. This presents a totally different way of looking at the country when thinking about balance between demographics and geography

Inside London

LSE/Electionforecast.co.uk

Boris Johnson may be the capital's Tory mayor, but London -- like most urban centres in the UK -- is ultimately a Labour city. The researchers over at electionforecast.co.uk note that Labour's influence over the city is not static, but in fact is a trend. Maps they have published on the LSE election blog show their predictions that the Labour-flavoured blush that currently decorates London's cheeks may creep up to its forehead and down towards its chin come polling day.

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They point out that increasingly, London is not the microcosm of the rest of the country that it once was -- the party outperforms in the capital relative to the rest of the UK. This trend of course could be exacerbated if, as predicted, many Labour seats north of the border fall into the hands of the SNP.

Scotland

The most significant change to occur in the 2015 election will undoubtedly take place in Scotland, where politics have been totally recast in light of last year's independence referendum. According to pretty much every map out there, Scotland is turning yellow this May, and not in support of Nick Clegg. In fact the Lib Dems are set to lose seats, but the loss will be felt more significantly by the Labour party.

The electionforecast.co.uk team predicts that 70 percent of seats will change hands in Scotland next month, and perhaps surprisingly, the SNP are not set to be the only winners. The Conservatives will supposedly also make gains -- albeit nowhere near as dramatic as those made by Nicola Sturgeon's party.

As electionforecast.co.uk has done, it's possible to look at Scotland as a separate entity. But it's more interesting to look at in context of the rest of the country. On a geographically weighted map, it transforms the whole of the UK into a landscape decorated in primary colours.

The bets are on

Ladbrokes

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Everyone in the UK has a stake in the outcome of the election, but for some -- and not just potential MPs -- those stakes are financial as well as political. Gamblers are gamifying the election, and much like Risk, that game is being played out across a map.

Ladbrokes has an interactive map that allows you to click through the UK, constituency by constituency, and see the odds for each party, as well as the predicted outcomes. If you fancy a flutter, you can bet then and there on the party of your choice. But it's not just gamblers who are interested in Ladbrokes' map.

Ladbrokes

"So far our traffic analysis would suggest that lots of people who do not normally visit our site or bet with us are looking at the site and sharing it as they are well aware that the odds are a very accurate indicator of who is favoured in each seat and the visual aspect makes it very easy even for the political or betting layman to understand," a Ladbrokes spokesperson tells WIRED.co.uk. "The map has been shared by many political pundits and academics as well as interested party members/campaigners who are keen to shout when they are favourites in a close seat."

Part of the reason the map is so popular is that the colours of the seats will change in real time if a favourite to win that seat changes. This is possible as the map is based upon a direct feed straight from Ladbrokes' latest odds. Ladbrokes will be taking bets not only during the run-up to polling day, but throughout the count, meaning that the map may be an interesting one to keep an eye on on election night.

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Minority Parties

Mapping support for minority parties has been a popular sport ahead of the 2015 election, no doubt fuelled by the rise of UKIP. The Mirror has created a slidey map that shows what support looks like for both the Green Party and UKIP across the country.

It shows that for both parties, the battle is centred around the south-east and to a lesser extent the north-west of England. The Greens have more of chance in the south-west, as well as in London and Scotland, where there is very little tolerance for UKIP. Neither party looks like it is going to have much luck in either Wales or the north-east of England.

A BBC map tells a different story, however. It shows pockets of support for UKIP in both the north-east and Scotland. This map suggests that UKIP supporters are scattered in disparate pockets around the country, with a cluster of purple constituencies in England's south-west toe.

The Telegraph has also had a punt at mapping UKIP support, and its attempts suggest that there may be UKIP fans in Wales after all, and plenty of them too. Cleverly, what the Telegraph has done is to place its UKIP map side by side with a map detailing the percentage of constituents born abroad. The result is that where there are few immigrants, there are UKIP supporters, and where there are immigrants, UKIP support is scarce.

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Race and gender politics

Just as geographical maps of UK politics suggest that the Tories have conquered most of the country, the map of white male power in Great Britain (as put together by the Mirror in November 2014) suggests that very few constituencies have ever voted in favour of a woman or ethnic minority candidate.

However whereas the impression of Conservative success in the UK may be misleading when viewed on a geographical map, the impression of women and ethnic minority candidates is not. In fact 320 of the 650 constituencies across the country have never elected a woman or ethnic minority MP.

Map showing number of female candidates standing in each constituency The Mirror

Things don't look particularly bright for 2015 either. Over 120 constituencies in the UK don't have any female candidates standing in this election, and not even a third of candidates are women. Another map put together by the Mirror shows you how many female candidates are standing for election in your constituency. You will be in the minority if it is more than three.

Swing seats

BBC

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Pretty much the best part of election night is the chance to see the famous swingometer in action, and some have already started to document which seats have the potential to cause the swings to occur.

Metro.co.uk has put together this map highlighting the positions of the 10 most marginal seats in the country, where just a few votes could make a dramatic difference.

The Telegraph on the other hand has mapped the safe seats against the marginal seats. Marginal constituencies tend to be more exciting places to vote in than safe seats, as you feel like your vote really counts. Voters in safe seats shouldn't be apathetic, however -- your vote is still your opportunity to express your opinion who should be in charge of both your local area and the country.

Safe vs marginal seats The Telegraph

Reading the maps

Shutterstock

When we look at election maps, we look for faultlines in the country. Depending on the map, it's certainly possible to find them. Channel 4 economics Paul Mason writes in the Guardian that the country can be divided into three regions: "Scandi-Scotland, the asset-rich south-east and post-industrial Britain".

His analysis is that while the SNP and the Conservatives have got their heartlands (Scandi-Scotland and the asset-rich respectively) locked down, post-industrial Britain is struggling to make its mind up. Post-industrial votes should historically belong to Labour, but for one reason or another, this demographic is wavering. A glance at the Telegraph's map of marginal seats to some extent reflects this. While the urban centres around the country are pretty unwavering, the outlying areas -- the former milling, mining and industrial towns -- across the north west, north east, the Midlands and Wales are still not sure.


Look at any carefully electoral map of the UK and you'll see a similar reflection of Mason's analysis. This is indeed an election that is being played according out to three separate dreams of what people want the country to be. Experts seem to agree that this is difficult election to call, and the fact that there is no centre between these three grounds is the factor causing this difficulty. Maps are inherently more complex to design when there are more than two factors at play, as there definitely are in this election.

Map analysis is in itself a political process. For example, the Telegraph has published a map showing the constituencies in which unemployment fell the most since the last election. The editorial accompanying the map notes that Tories will be delighted that it fell most dramatically in Labour seats. But this assumption is based upon the idea that those living in these constituencies will attribute the change in circumstances to the government as a whole, rather than to the work that their local MP may have undertaken in that area.

As Lauderdale says, each map about the election -- the good ones at least -- will "reflect a substance or story behind them". Not until the election is done and dusted and a new government steps into power will we really be able to draw an accurate picture of the British political landscape. Until then, though, we have our maps, each of which tells a story of hope and possibility and, of course, statistical probability.