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Follow the Leader: Why the U.K. Election Really Is About Brexit Adam Blenford , Hayley Warren Hayley Warren and Charlotte Ryan Published: June 6, 2017 Updated: June 6, 2017 By Adam Blenford and Charlotte Ryan

Security fears twice derailed the U.K. election campaign, and policy wobbles undermined Prime Minister Theresa May’s “strong and stable” message. But an analysis of the prime minister’s campaign stops shows the path to re-election still runs through the Brexit heartlands with the Conservatives gunning for traditional Labour seats where voters supported to leave the European Union. Leeds, Halifax, Bolton, Mansfield, and Tyneside North. These are unusual places for a Tory leader to focus on. After the terror attacks, May was back on the stump in northern England three days before Thursday’s vote. Specifically Bradford South, a place that last elected a Conservative in 1918. That is the surest sign yet that she remains confident she can still score a historic win despite the polls showing her lead eroded. As we can see below, in seats where the two main parties finished first and second in 2015 the battle is being fought mainly on Labour’s turf.

May Targets Labour “Leavers” Constituencies where Labour and Conservative parties came first and second to each other in the 2015 general election May has visited Labour majority ← → Con. majority 70 60 50 60 70 80 ↑ Voted leave ↓ Remain 30k 20k 10k 0 10k 20k 30k Maidenhead, May’s home constituency May has visited Labour majority ← → Conservative majority 70% 60% 50% 60% 70% 80% ↑ Voted to leave the EU ↓ Voted to remain in the EU Maidenhead, May’s home constituency 30k 20k 10k 0 10k 20k 30k Sources: Campaign visit data via Bloomberg reporting, BBC. Estimated EU referendum results at constituency level by Chris Hanretty of UEA

There was a shift in the campaign patterns of both parties after a May U-turn on social care funding, a key manifesto policy, a BBC analysis shows. But in the wake of the Manchester and London terror attacks national polling averages have shown that May’s Conservatives retain a solid lead over Corbyn’s Labour.

Polls Still Favor May Polling average puts Labour 9 points behind the Conservative party Con Labour LibDem UKIP 45% 34% 8% 5% April May June 45.0% Conservatives 34.0% Labour Manchester attack London attack 8.0% LibDems 5.0% UKIP Election called April May June Source: Bloomberg composite of polls

A polling lead of 11 percentage points on election day would be an increase from the 6.5 percentage point lead they achieved in the 2015 election. That would translate to a swing to the Tories of just over 2 points. To try and make sense of these numbers we have plugged them into an election modeller developed by Bloomberg that allows us to measure the effect of a swing from one party to another. It suggests that a 2 percent swing from Labour to Conservative would mean that the Tories would win just 7 more seats. On its own that would increase May’s working majority to 24. That’s unlikely to be cause for celebration in Tory headquarters.

Current seats Model 330 232 8 56 24 Conservative Labour LibDem SNP Others (UKIP) +7 -7 0 0 0 2% Conservative party majority of 24 seats 2% Conservative Labour LibDem SNP Others Current seats 330 232 8 56 24 Model +7 -7 0 0 0 Modelled majority 24 seats

But if we add in a groundswell of potential support for May from former UKIP voters we see a different picture. In 2015, UKIP won more votes than the eventual majority in 163 seats, many of them Labour-held.

The Importance of the UKIP Vote Difference between UKIP votes received and the winning majority in the 2015 general election Conservative Labour SNP Other Below majority ← → Above majority 70% 60% 50% 60% 70% 80% ↑ Leave ↓ Remain -30k -20k -10k 0 10k 30k Clacton, the only seat won by UKIP in 2015 Winner Conservative Labour SNP Other UKIP votes below majority ← → UKIP votes above majority 70% 60% 50% 60% 70% 80% Clacton, the only seat won by UKIP in 2015 ↑ Voted to leave the EU ↓ Voted to remain -30k -20k -10k 0 10k Source: Estimated EU referendum results at constituency level by Chris Hanretty of UEA

If May wins 50 percent of the 2015 UKIP vote as well as 2 percent of Labour’s, our model shows she will win a total of 41 more seats, significantly increasing her majority.

Current seats Model 330 232 8 56 24 Conservative Labour LibDem SNP Others (UKIP) +48 -43 -3 -1 -1 2% 50% Conservative party majority of 113 seats 50% 2% UKIP Conservative Labour LibDem SNP Others Current seats 330 232 8 56 24 Model +48 -3 -43 -1 -1 Modelled majority 113 seats

If she outperforms the polls and wins over more Labour voters that would make a dramatic difference. A 4 percent Lab-Con swing would see the Tories win 387 seats, our model shows. A 2 percent swing from the Conservatives to Labour would see Labour gain 10 seats, wiping out May’s majority. If Labour won back 25 percent of UKIP voters that would see them win another 18 seats. The result would be a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party but Labour potentially seeking coalition partners to form a government.

Current seats Model Conservative Labour LibDem SNP Others (UKIP) 330 232 8 56 24 -17 +18 0 0 -1 2% 25% Hung Parliament: Conservatives short of a majority by 13 seats 25% 2% UKIP Conservative Labour LibDem SNP Others Current seats 330 232 8 56 24 Model -17 0 +18 0 -1 Conservatives short of a majority by 13 seats Hung Parliament: Correction: A previous version of this chart showed incorrect model numbers.