Voters in Montgomery, Ala. wait to cast their ballots in the state's special election on Dec. 12, where Democrat Doug Jones won. Midterm elections are more than 10 months away, but polls this month show Democrats opening up a double-digit lead on the generic ballot. | Jim Waston/AFP/Getty Images Polls show sizable advantage for Democrats in 2018 midterm election

Democrats will enter 2018 with a substantial lead in next year’s congressional elections, with President Donald Trump and the GOP congressional leadership serving as anchors on Republicans’ poll numbers.

The midterm election is more than 10 months away, but polls this month — including a new POLITICO/Morning Consult survey — show Democrats opening up a double-digit lead on the generic ballot, a test of whether voters nationwide prefer to be represented in Congress by a Democrat or a Republican. Democrats’ advantage in the new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll stands at 10 percentage points, 44 percent to 34 percent — the party’s largest lead of the year.


Democrats and liberals are as motivated as Republicans and conservatives to vote in next year’s elections, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows, in a reversal from recent midterms, when conservatives were more energized. That trend has been evident during the 2017 off-year and special elections, when turnout spiked in Democratic areas, relative to other non-presidential races.

The new survey caps a stretch of polling low-water marks for Trump and his party. Each of those polls, including the new POLITICO/Morning Consult survey, were conducted before Congress passed the GOP-drafted tax bill, and Republicans hope their numbers improve when regular polling begins again in the new year.

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Within the past week, Trump has reached all-time lows in his approval rating from polling aggregators. The new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows Trump’s approval rating slightly higher than the mid-to-high-30s national polling average: 41 percent, though that is only 2 points better than his lowest approval rating this year.

But Democrats’ 10-point lead on the generic ballot is their largest for the year. The party has a 15-point lead among female voters, the poll shows, and a 3-point edge among male voters. White voters are split — 39 percent for Democrats and 38 percent for Republicans — but Democrats have a 59-point lead among African-American voters and a 27-point lead among Hispanics.

There’s no magic number for the parties in the national House vote when it comes to control of the chamber after the 2018 midterms — particularly given congressional maps in many states that favor Republicans. But most analysts suggest that a margin in the high single digits could be sufficient for Democrats to flip the House.

The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is even greater in other public polls this month. A CNN poll out this week gave the party a stunning, 18-point lead. Surveys from Monmouth and Quinnipiac universities showed Democrats ahead by 15 points. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican one by an 11-point margin. And even a poll conducted by a conservative nonprofit with ties to Trump’s political operation found Democrats ahead by 12 points on the generic ballot, the Washington Examiner reported .

Voter turnout often lags in midterms, compared with presidential years — a phenomenon that has favored Republicans in recent years. But the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows little partisan difference in the percentage of voters who are “very motivated” to cast their ballots next year.

“Our polling indicates voter enthusiasm for next year’s midterms is high across party lines,” said Kyle Dropp, the co-founder and chief research officer of Morning Consult. “Notably, 64 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of Democrats say they are very motivated to vote in next year’s elections.”

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll also tested the effectiveness of national figures — either as campaign surrogates for state- and district-level candidates, or as foils for the opposite party.

Trump is the most polarizing national politician. Just under a third of voters, 32 percent, say an endorsement from Trump would make them more likely to support a congressional candidate. But more voters, 38 percent, say a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to vote for that candidate.

There’s also an enthusiasm gap: The percentage of voters who say a Trump endorsement would make them much less likely to vote for that candidate, 32 percent, is equal to the combined percentage who say Trump’s endorsement would make them much or somewhat more likely to support that person.

The two least popular figures, according to the poll, loom large on the Senate battlefield: former White House adviser Stephen Bannon and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Only 17 percent of voters say a Bannon endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 39 percent say his backing would make them less likely to support the candidate.

McConnell’s numbers aren’t much better: Just 18 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate he endorsed, while twice as many, 36 percent, would be less likely.

The Bannon-vs.-McConnell proxy battles are most likely to play out in GOP Senate primaries, but the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll is inconclusive on which man is more valuable nationally to a Republican audience. Three in 10 GOP voters say a McConnell endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, but 23 percent say it would make them less likely. The numbers are similar for Bannon, the controversial Breitbart executive: 29 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by him, while 25 percent would be less likely.

Democrats, meanwhile, hope to turn House Speaker Paul Ryan into a bogeyman for GOP congressional candidates. Ryan (R-Wis.) is a stronger surrogate than McConnell, but the percentage of voters who say his support would make them less likely to vote for a candidate (36 percent) is still greater than those it would make more likely (25 percent).

Republicans express confidence, despite national headwinds, that voters will reject candidates supported by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. But the poll shows Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Ryan would be a wash: 26 percent say a Pelosi endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 34 percent say it would make them less likely.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted December 14-18, surveying 1,991 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2oL0JuF | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2kK12Rh