(CNN) It's looking more and more likely that the United States soon could face its first tropical threat in the young 2019 hurricane season.

On Monday, the National Hurricane Center increased chances of the system developing in the Gulf of Mexico to 80% by the end of the week.

Depending on your computer model of choice, the ensuing system could pose trouble -- or worse -- from the Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana.

While it's still too early to tell whether this system will get strong enough to be named (that would be Barry, by the way), more interesting is "how" this could all come about.

For the most part, meteorologists vigilantly scan the Gulf or Atlantic Ocean from June to November for signs that low pressure systems are developing with the potential to strengthen.

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