COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Here's our schedule breakdown of Ohio State's season, as we assign a percentage chance for each opponent to beat the Buckeyes. We'll continue multiplying those chances until we reach our final number, the chance we think Ohio State has to go 12-0 during the 2016 regular season.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

vs. Ohio State: Saturday, Oct. 1 at noon at Ohio Stadium. Television for this game hasn't been announced.

2015 record: 4-8 (1-7), tied for last in the Big Ten East.

Bowl: The Scarlet Knights missed a bowl for the first time in five seasons.

Returning starters: 16 (nine offense, seven defense).

Phil Steele preseason rank: No. 89 in Steele's Power Poll, the lowest of any of Ohio State's 12 regular-season opponents.

Week before the OSU game: The Buckeyes will be opening Big Ten play following their only bye week, while Rutgers will be coming off the start of conference play against Iowa. This will be the Scarlet Knights' first Big Ten road game, though they do open the season on the road with a nonconference game at Washington.

Chances to beat Ohio State: 2 percent. The reason the chance is that high is the Ash factor.

Former Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash replaced the fired Kyle Flood after last season, and the former Buckeye assistant went to work installing almost everything he learned during his time in Columbus at his new gig in Piscataway.

Ash will make, and already has made, Rutgers more competitive in recruiting in its fertile homestate.

But that's for down the line. For now, with a team returning 16 starters yet undergoing a complete transition in style and substance, if you think the Scarlet Knights can come into Ohio Stadium and compete, after losing 56-17 in Columbus in 2014, then it boils down to Ash.

Can the old assistant beat Urban Meyer, the boss he learned so much from?

How they could compete with Ohio State: Rutgers does have a lot back, but remember, that's from a team that wasn't very good.

Two veteran quarterbacks return in junior Chris Laviano and junior Hayden Rettig, but the real answer behind center may be neither of them. Rutgers added TCU grad transfer Zach Allen, but the man Ash may really want to play is dual-threat true freshman Tyler Odin.

The better offensive answer may come in the run game, where four starting linemen and leading rushers Robert Martin and Josh Hicks, who combined for 1,437 yards on 271 carries, return.

The defense would have to play way above its head against the Buckeyes, though. Rutgers ranked 104th in the nation last year while allowing 34.9 points per game. And in their final six Big Ten games, Rutgers gave up an average of 46 points.

Not good.

Jay Niemann, the former defensive coordinator at Northern Illinois, has work to do, but he does have some veteran defensive linemen, including All-Big Ten quality tackle Darius Hamilton, to work with.

The Scarlet Knights also feature one of the best return men in the nation in Janarion Grant, who ran back four kicks for touchdowns a year ago.

But compete in Columbus? Ash had better know every play the OSU offense runs.

Projection: Rutgers won't beat Ohio State in Ohio Stadium this year. But in the future, this may not be such a ridiculous idea.

The Scarlet Knights rank fourth, behind Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa, in the current 247sports.com recruiting rankings for 2017, which is an early indication of what Rutgers could become.

Competing in the Big Ten East long-term with the Buckeyes, Wolverines and Michigan State is a lot to ask, and Penn State might eventually get it together, while Maryland brought in its own bright new coach in D.J. Durkin.

This division is on the rise. But Rutgers may no longer be on track to get totally left behind.

A win in Columbus isn't in the cards, but Rutgers could be looking at a bowl return this year and an outside shot at a winning record. In the future? The chances could get higher than two percent.

Ohio State football 2016 schedule breakdown