Coming in second place, but within the margin of error for a victory, is NDP candidate Agnieszka Mlynarz, who garnered 28 per cent support. Mlynarz is looking to turn Guelph orange for the first time in more than two decades, when Derek Fletcher won the riding in 1990. Fletcher went on to serve a single term before losing out to the PC Party’s Brenda Elliott in the 1995 election.

Not far behind, polling at 25.3 per cent, is the PC Party’s Ray Ferraro.

“It’s early days, really. They’re pretty close,” Matt Sheehy, the chair of Ferraro’s campaign, told the Mercury Tribune, adding that he and his team still feel confident with just under two weeks to go until Guelphites go to the polls.

“We’d love to be at the top of the pile, but we’re not far off, so we’re not concerned.”

In the surrounding area, however, things are looking better for Ferraro’s party. According to the same Mainstreet Research poll, as of Friday, the PCs were leading the way in the Southwestern Ontario region — with the poll taking in Wiarton to the north, south towards Owen Sound, Wellington County, Waterloo Region, Oxford County, London, Sarnia, Chatham and all the way to Windsor — with 41 per cent support. The NDP follows up in second with 32.5 per cent support, Liberals at 12.9 per cent and the Greens at nine per cent.

Sly Castaldi, looking to keep the Liberal trend running in Guelph with the retirement of longtime MPP Liz Sandals, has a tougher hill to climb, polling at 11.9 per cent.

In an emailed statement, Castaldi said the numbers are not a concern, and there is still a long way to go in the campaign.

"The only poll that matters is the one on election day," she said.

"I'm out knocking on doors every day, and getting a great response from the people I'm talking to. There is a lot of volatility out there, and my focus is on becoming a strong, committed MPP for the people of Guelph come June 7."

Other candidates — including independent Thomas Mooney, None of the Above’s Paul Taylor, the Communist Party’s Juanita Burnett or Libertarian Michael Riehl — come in with a combined 3.1 per cent support.

Mlynarz was unavailable to comment prior to this story’s publication. The story will be updated with her comments when they are returned.