The Florida Democratic Party has not won a race for governor in 24 years, when Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis were both 15 years old. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images Poll: Gillum has slight lead over DeSantis, but governor's race is 'too close to call'

MIAMI — Democrat Andrew Gillum has a marginal lead over Republican Ron DeSantis in the first major post-primary poll of Florida’s race for governor, which looks too close to call for the moment.

Gillum’s 50-47 percent advantage over DeSantis is buoyed by solid backing among independents and overwhelming African-American support for the first-ever black nominee for governor, according to the Quinnipiac University poll of 785 likely Florida voters. The poll has an error margin of 4.3 percentage points.


“Mayor Andrew Gillum came out of his upset victory in the Florida Democratic primary with a head of steam,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a written statement. “That momentum shows itself as Gillum hits 50 percent in a neck-and-neck match-up with Republican U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for the four-year lease on the governor's mansion."

The Florida Democratic Party has not won a race for governor in 24 years, when Gillum and DeSantis were both 15 years old.

While the idea of a "too close to call" statewide race is par for the course in Florida, what makes this contest unusual is the polarization of voters. Brown said more than 9 in 10 voters in the poll reported that they wouldn’t change their minds by Election Day.

There’s a big gender rap in the race, with men supporting DeSantis by 52–45 percent, and women backing Gillum by 55–42 percent.

White voters support DeSantis by 52–45 percent, while black voters back Gillum 93–2 percent. DeSantis has an edge among Hispanic voters, likely due to the strong support of GOP-voting Cuban-Americans, who back him by 56-43 percent over Gillum.

Each candidate draws about the same support — more than 90 percent each — from voters who identify with their party, Gillum right now is winning independents by 55-42 percent. The poll surveyed slightly more Republicans than Democrats, 34 percent to 31 percent, which is in keeping with historic Florida midterm turnout rates.

Overall, 46 percent had a favorable impression of Gillum and 33 percent had a negative impression, giving him a net favorability rating of 13 points. DeSantis’ net favorability rating: 2 points, with 45 percent viewing him favorable and 43 percent negatively.

President Donald Trump’s net favorability index was negative 4 points, or 47–51 percent.

But though Trump played an outsized role in pushing DeSantis to a big win last week and was a bogeyman in the Democratic primary debates, Brown said that "there is little 'Trump effect' in the Florida governor’s race as 22 percent of voters say their decision in the race will be more to express support for the president and 24 percent say their vote for governor will be more to express opposition. But 51 percent say Trump is not an important factor in the governor’s race."