Just like on the way up, we have some crazy, messy predictions on the way down. We’re logging a few here because a lot of ‘experts’ are going to look dumb after the fact.

Back at the end of 2017 and start of 2018, we saw some insane predictions for where bitcoin might end up in the near future. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stuck by his $25,000 prediction for the end of 2018 for a long time, before adjusting it down to $15,000. This so-called expert was actually at the lower end of the spectrum of forecasts, with others calling for $50,000, $80,000, $100,000 and higher.

And so it is on the way down. Bitcoin will bottom at $1,000, we hear. At $500. It will go to zero.

These are the same ‘experts’ who predicted $25-100,000.

The reality: No one knows. We think BTC will bottom below $3k, probably with a swift capitulation spike to the low $2,000s. But we don’t know either. We’re clear about that. No one knows for sure.

Bitcoin has just put in a new local low, dropping below $3,400 for the first time this year. And so, to give a sense of how these ‘experts’ are collectively doing little more than putting a finger in the wind, and to give a sense of the range of lows they are expecting, here are a few recorded for posterity.

Crypto Twitter influencer Armin van Bitcoin believes the market has already bottomed. Noting that the price of BTC is $3,550 (ok, that didn’t age well…) he says he’s bullish and names several experts who are not.

Murad Mahmudov thinks we’ll see $1,700–$2,200. Not so far off our own estimate.

Tone Vays says it could be $1,300 or even lower.

Anthony Pompliano (Morgan Creek Digital) thinks a little under $3,000 is likely: we’re almost there, but will probably trade sideways through this year.

Lucid Investment Strategies says sub–$1,000 (ouch), before ultimately heading to $10 million.

Plenty of pro-bitcoin commodities and trading experts are looking at $1,xxx, while the overall consensus seems to be that the bottom will be found by the end of Q2 2019.

But here’s the thing. The market evolves. New information comes to light. Price discovery occurs and impacts the next phase. All of which means that the best traders don’t try to predict the bottom. They update their expectations with new information and adapt as they go.

Right now, we’re looking at that 200 weekly moving average, and the psychological support of $3,000. If we close below that, we have useful information about the next step. If we bounce off it hard, then it’s more positive.

Just don’t go trusting ‘experts’ too much when they try to predict the future months in advance.

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