If you want to find out how to make it to the top as a writer or in any other profession, who should be your model--the most successful writer or the ones only near the top?

Society and common sense say you should choose the one who is at the absolute pinnacle, but research suggests that may be wrong.

The reason, according to researchers at Oxford and the Warwick Business School, is that extreme success relies a lot on luck and the ability to call on initial advantages as well as talent.

Science Daily summarizes it this way: “A rational learner should realise that it is more useful to draw lessons from the less exceptional performers, the second best, because their circumstances are likely to be less extreme, implying their performances are more informative and offer more evidence for skill.”

The writing world bears this out. Without taking anything away from J. K. Rowling’s ability as an author, is she ten times more talented than authors who make one-tenth of her income (still a very substantial amount)? I don’t think so.

The Disney Mistake

Another issue is whether you are copying the right thing. When Walt Disney passed away, for a long time the people who ran his organization selected projects based on “what Walt would do.” They overlooked the fact that when he was alive, what Walt did changed all the time. He was constantly taking risks (and had the advantage of a brother who put on the brakes when Walt went too far). Rather than continuing on the path he was on before he died, they should have been imitating his openness to new ideas and his pioneering spirit. That mistake nearly killed the company until control was handed to different people.

Copying risk-takers

In the business world often the most successful people are also risk-takers who fail more often than they succeed, but when they do succeed hit it big.

This was not mentioned in the study, but in the world of big business (but not in the arts) there’s an unwritten code that they will protect each other from the usual consequences of massive failure. That’s why the top people behind the calamitous financial transgressions of the last decade are still running companies, and why executives fired after leading their companies into huge losses get a pay-off of millions of dollars or pounds and soon another chance at another company.

Despite all the books lauding the practices of top businesspeople, using them as a model could be dangerous if you’re not part of their golden circle.

Perhaps the closest analogy to this in the writing world is that if an author is already successful, publishers will spend a lot of money publicizing their latest book, a version of “the rich get richer.” Although self-publishing offers a way in, it takes luck as well as talent and perseverance to break out in that crowded marketplace in a big way.

(You won't go wrong following the best practices suggested in my book, "Your Writing Coach." It takes you from the original idea all the way through to publication. You can get it from Amazon or your other favorite book seller.)