George RR Martin’s next Song of Ice and Fire novel will be released in 2017. Or at least, that’s what analysts have predicted in the absence of a Winds of Winter date.

The US author, known for the books upon which hit HBO series Game of Thrones is based, is renowned for his slow writing pace that keeps fans tense and waiting.

But now, Five Thirty Eight website’s ‘Martinology’ has predicted that, if Martin writes at an average rate of 350 words per day, the same as Harry Potter’s JK Rowling, the next instalment will be completed by February next year.

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Should Martin’s daily pace drop to 250 words, fans can expect a later October finish date. but, in all likelihood, fans are looking at closer to 2017.

Shape Created with Sketch. Game of Thrones season four in pictures Show all 36 left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch. Shape Created with Sketch. Game of Thrones season four in pictures 1/36 Game of Thrones Steward serving on The Wall and fan favourite Jon Snow HBO 2/36 Game of Thrones Arya continues on her journey through the North HBO 3/36 Game of Thrones After so long in King's Landing, Sansa sees snow falling at the Eyrie in the Vale, it reminds her of Winterfell HBO 4/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys looks contemplative as she walks down the steps of a pyramid in Meereen HBo 5/36 Game of Thrones Arya and the Hound meet an unwelcome visitor HBO 6/36 Game of Thrones Meera Reed, Bran and Hodor walk through the snow to find the three-eyed crow HBO 7/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys looks at a map as she considers her next move HBO 8/36 Game of Thrones Brienne of Tarth and Podrick Payne continue on their quest to find Sansa HBO 9/36 Game of Thrones Sam Tarly attempts to rally the men of the Night's Watch HBO 10/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys and Missandei survey the troops HBO 11/36 Game of Thrones The Wildlings get ready to attack HBO 12/36 Game of Thrones Jon Snow trains for battle against the wildings at Castle Black HBO 13/36 Game of Thrones Cersei watches over Tyrion's trial HBO 14/36 Game of Thrones A vulnerable family fall victim to the Hound HBO 15/36 Game of Thrones Mark Gatiss makes an appearance as Tycho Nestoris, an envoy of the Iron Bank of Braavos HBO 16/36 Game of Thrones Sophie Turner as the eldest Stark daughter Sansa HBO 17/36 Game of Thrones Jaime begs his father Tywin for mercy for his brother HBO 18/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys rules in Meereen from on high as she listens to man seeking recompense for his slaughtered cattle and another asking for the burial of his crucified father HBO 19/36 Game of Thrones Tyrion Lannister goes on trial for the murder of Joffrey as the nobles of Westeros watch HBO 20/36 Game of Thrones Maisie Williams as Arya Stark in 'The First of His Name' HBO 21/36 Game of Thrones Emilia Clarke as Danerys, the Mother of Dragons HBO 22/36 Game of Thrones Jack Gleeson as Joffrey Baratheon and Natalie Dormer as Margaery Tyrell HBO 23/36 Game of Thrones The 'Purple Wedding' shocked fans this month HBO 24/36 Game of Thrones Daario will be a new arrival in season 4 HBO 25/36 Game of Thrones The Hound strides the fields in heavy armour HBO 26/36 Game of Thrones King Joffrey and his smirk of contempt are back HBO 27/36 Game of Thrones Sansa and Tyrion have a heart-to-heart Channel 4 28/36 Game of Thrones Ygritte and Tormund prepare for battle HBO 29/36 Game of Thrones Tywin wearing the Hand of the King brooch HBO 30/36 Game of Thrones Margaery and Olenna in the courtyard HBO 31/36 Game of Thrones Sam, a steward of the Night's Watch HBO 32/36 Game of Thrones Arya remains under the watch of the The Hound HBO 33/36 Game of Thrones Jaime and Cersai in heated discussions HBO 34/36 Game of Thrones Oberyn with Ellaria, mother of the four youngest Sand Snakes HBO 35/36 Game of Thrones Tyrion and Shae have words HBO 36/36 Game of Thrones Season 4 HBO 1/36 Game of Thrones Steward serving on The Wall and fan favourite Jon Snow HBO 2/36 Game of Thrones Arya continues on her journey through the North HBO 3/36 Game of Thrones After so long in King's Landing, Sansa sees snow falling at the Eyrie in the Vale, it reminds her of Winterfell HBO 4/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys looks contemplative as she walks down the steps of a pyramid in Meereen HBo 5/36 Game of Thrones Arya and the Hound meet an unwelcome visitor HBO 6/36 Game of Thrones Meera Reed, Bran and Hodor walk through the snow to find the three-eyed crow HBO 7/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys looks at a map as she considers her next move HBO 8/36 Game of Thrones Brienne of Tarth and Podrick Payne continue on their quest to find Sansa HBO 9/36 Game of Thrones Sam Tarly attempts to rally the men of the Night's Watch HBO 10/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys and Missandei survey the troops HBO 11/36 Game of Thrones The Wildlings get ready to attack HBO 12/36 Game of Thrones Jon Snow trains for battle against the wildings at Castle Black HBO 13/36 Game of Thrones Cersei watches over Tyrion's trial HBO 14/36 Game of Thrones A vulnerable family fall victim to the Hound HBO 15/36 Game of Thrones Mark Gatiss makes an appearance as Tycho Nestoris, an envoy of the Iron Bank of Braavos HBO 16/36 Game of Thrones Sophie Turner as the eldest Stark daughter Sansa HBO 17/36 Game of Thrones Jaime begs his father Tywin for mercy for his brother HBO 18/36 Game of Thrones Daenerys rules in Meereen from on high as she listens to man seeking recompense for his slaughtered cattle and another asking for the burial of his crucified father HBO 19/36 Game of Thrones Tyrion Lannister goes on trial for the murder of Joffrey as the nobles of Westeros watch HBO 20/36 Game of Thrones Maisie Williams as Arya Stark in 'The First of His Name' HBO 21/36 Game of Thrones Emilia Clarke as Danerys, the Mother of Dragons HBO 22/36 Game of Thrones Jack Gleeson as Joffrey Baratheon and Natalie Dormer as Margaery Tyrell HBO 23/36 Game of Thrones The 'Purple Wedding' shocked fans this month HBO 24/36 Game of Thrones Daario will be a new arrival in season 4 HBO 25/36 Game of Thrones The Hound strides the fields in heavy armour HBO 26/36 Game of Thrones King Joffrey and his smirk of contempt are back HBO 27/36 Game of Thrones Sansa and Tyrion have a heart-to-heart Channel 4 28/36 Game of Thrones Ygritte and Tormund prepare for battle HBO 29/36 Game of Thrones Tywin wearing the Hand of the King brooch HBO 30/36 Game of Thrones Margaery and Olenna in the courtyard HBO 31/36 Game of Thrones Sam, a steward of the Night's Watch HBO 32/36 Game of Thrones Arya remains under the watch of the The Hound HBO 33/36 Game of Thrones Jaime and Cersai in heated discussions HBO 34/36 Game of Thrones Oberyn with Ellaria, mother of the four youngest Sand Snakes HBO 35/36 Game of Thrones Tyrion and Shae have words HBO 36/36 Game of Thrones Season 4 HBO

Five Thirty Eight has a reputation for statistical analysis and regularly predicts political and sporting outcomes.

The last update on Winds of Winter’s progress came in October 2012, when Martin told a reporter that he had written 400 pages.

Five Thirty Eight has made use of Martin’s previous book lengths:

A Game of Thrones – 298,000 words, August 1996

A Clash of Kings – 326,000 words, November 1998

A Storm of Swords – 424,000 words, August 2000

A Feast for Crows – 300,000 words, October 2005

A Dance of Dragons – 422,000 words, July 2011

Martin’s editor Anne Groell has spoken about the Winds of Winter release date before, insisting that she does not know when to expect the sixth novel.

Groell has tried “multiple times” to encourage Martin to work while on the road but, according to her, “he is one stubborn man and very set in his ways”.

Martin’s UK publisher Jane Johnson confirmed in January that Winds of Winter would not be out this year and she does not know how many novels are planned.

“In all honest only George knows how many books there will be in the series and he’s not saying,” she told the Guardian. “Indeed, at this stage of his writing, with the many branching pathways of the characters’ stories still to intersect, he may not know.”

Martin has, however, promised “more deaths, more betrayals and more marriages”. So that’s something to look forward to, at least.