At a recent luncheon in Dallas, Mexican businessmen were quick to label the leading presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador as their own Hugo Chávez, and some worried that electing him will bring the country into a downward spiral, similar to Venezuela’s.

This is highly unlikely: The economic and political conditions are simply not there.

Mexico in 2018 is a very different country than Venezuela in 1998, the year Chavez was first elected to office.

The first huge difference is the North American Free Trade Agreement and the economic prosperity free trade has brought to the country in relative terms.

Mexico currently has a 5.5 percent inflation rate and a 44 percent poverty rate, trending downward in the last decade. Venezuela in the '90s had a double-digit inflation rate and the poverty rate peaked at 66 percent in 1995.

But the real difference is political. Venezuela’s economy collapsed in the '90s, triggering a crisis of confidence in democratic institutions and political elites. Earlier in the 20th century, Venezuela had a power-sharing agreement between traditional parties that bolstered their democracy at a time when military governments were the norm in Latin America. That changed in the late 1990s, and Venezuela was poised for a caudillo takeover that razed through institutions and created a new Chávez-led constitution with unprecedented presidential powers.

Mexico has legislative and judicial powers strong enough to counterbalance presidential overreach. Furthermore, constitutional reforms in Mexico require two-thirds of congress and the majority of the state’s legislatures. A long process.

But that doesn't mean Lopez Obrador cannot inflict some damage to democratic institutions. The question probably is how much of a populist he really is. Just last month he spoke of the need to "draw up a moral constitution."

“It is indispensable that we start a new current of thought that promotes a moral paradigm, love for one’s family, one’s neighbor, for nature, for our country,” he said.

Lopez Obrador is taking advantage of Mexico’s two impending issues: corruption and drug-related violence. Last year three governors were arrested on corruption charges and 11 are currently being investigated. Meanwhile, cartel violence is responsible for 29,898 deaths in 2017. This does not look good on the incumbent government, led by Enrique Peña Nieto.

Currently, Lopez Obrador holds a 23 percent lead according to January poll numbers from polling firm Mitofsky. Left-right coalition candidate Ricardo Anaya is second with 20 percent and José Antonio Meade, from the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), is trailing third at 18 percent.

At a recent event in Dallas, former President Vicente Fox justified Lopez Obrador’s lead, arguing that the leftist has been a candidate for a long time, referring to his two previous failed attempts at the presidency.

However, Fox forgot to mention that Lopez Obrador is actually the more experienced candidate. His tenure as Mexico City mayor (2000-2005) has been deemed successful by most accounts.

Another difference between Lopez Obrador and Chavez is timing. Most Latin American countries that followed Chavez's lead in so-called 21st century socialism have learned the lessons of failed economic policies, rampant corruption and unlimited presidential powers, and they are moving on to more moderate leaders.

Lopez Obrador is, indeed, paying attention and knows his rivals will paint him as a radical-in-waiting. So far he has stayed on-message, talking about austerity and low taxes when he mentions economic policies.

Yes, Lopez Obrador has populist traits. But he is not Hugo Chavez, and making the comparison could even work to Lopez Obrador's advantage.

Juan F. Jaramillo is the metro assignment editor for Al Día, a sister publication of The Dallas Morning News. Email: jjaramillo@aldiadallas.com

Correction to reflect the name of PRI's candidate as José Antonio Meade, not José Ricardo. March 9, 2 p.m.

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