Ruling Fine Gael-Labour looks to have fallen short of a majority, as Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and independents make gains

Vote counting is underway in Ireland’s general election, as two exit polls indicated the ruling Fine Gael-Labour coalition has fallen well short of a majority, opening up the possibility of a second vote later this year.



The polls suggest the coalition has been punished over its austerity programme, which caused widespread anger, particularly over the imposition of water rates. Early indications are that turnout was about 66%.



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The findings also open up the possibility of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil burying their historic differences, which date back to the Irish civil war, and forming a “grand coalition” as the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have done in Germany. They have never worked together in government, and both Enda Kenny, the prime minister, and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin ruled out the prospect of partnership during the campaign. The two parties also dismissed cooperation with Sinn Féin, who are expected to finish third.

An Irish Times/MRBI exit poll released late on Friday put Fine Gael on 26.1%, less than four percentage points ahead of its main opposition, Fianna Fáil, on 22.9%.



Kenny is hoping to make history by becoming the first Fine Gael leader to be returned as PM for a second consecutive term.

The exit poll showed considerable gains for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.Fine Gael’s coalition partners, Labour, were on 7.8%, down from 19.4% in the 2011 election.

Based on those results, Fine Gael and Labour would not have enough seats to form a majority in the Dáil, the Irish parliament.

An RTE exit poll on Saturday morning predicted broadly similar results, with Fine Gael on 24.8% of first preference votes – two points down from the Irish Times survey – and their Labour coalition partners on 7%. RTE puts Fianna Fáil on about 23% and Sinn Féin on 16%.



In the runup to the vote, Fine Gael emphasised the Irish economic recovery from the 2008 crash was fragile, and that Ireland needed another stable government. Critics said the measures taken to plug the gap in national finances – tax rises, public spending cuts, wage freezes, etc – were too extreme and hit those on low-to-middle incomes.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Enda Kenny and his wife Fionnuala casting their votes in Castlebar, western Ireland, on Friday. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images

If the exit polls are accurate, they signal a remarkable turnaround for Fianna Fáil, which suffered its worst electoral showing in the republic’s history in 2011 after 14 years of continuous rule. They would also suggest a good showing for Sinn Féin, which campaigned on an anti-austerity campaign, and for independent candidates, who could play the role of kingmakers in any new coalition, although such a government would be politically unstable.

On Saturday morning, one of Ireland’s veteran election number crunchers, Trinity College Dublin political scientist Michael Marsh, gave the following seat projection based on the RTE exit poll: Fine Gael, 46, Labour 9, Fianna Fáil 37, Sinn Féin 27, the Social Democrats on 7, People Before Profit 6, Green Party 4, Independent Alliance 4, Renua 3, independents 13 and others 2. A total of 79 seats are needed to form a majority.



“Either we can have another election now, and do away with the count, or we’ll let them muddle around for a month or so and maybe they can think the unthinkable,” said Marsh. “It’s hard to see any sort of government without Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil getting together.”

If no coalition is formed before the Dáil sits again in March, it will be unable to elect a new prime minister, raising the prospect of a second election.



“It’s a very disappointing day from the government’s point of view,” Tom Curran, Fine Gael’s general secretary, told RTE. “If the exit polls are right … we will fall far short of being able to form a government.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Presiding officer Carmel McBride and police sergeant Paul McGee on the island of Inishbofin on Thursday. The island, situated off the coast of County Galway, went to the polls a day before the mainland. Photograph: Darren Staples/Reuters

Former government minister Michael McDowell warned on Saturday morning that the exit poll results, if translated into real votes in the count, raise serious issues for Enda Kenny and Joan Burton, the head of the Labour party.

“I was a leader myself, so I’m not saying this from a smug point of view,” the former justice minister said.



McDowell, who served in government during the critical years of the Northern Ireland peace process, described the Fine Gael campaign as a “flat tyre”.



Leftwing Dáil deputy Paul Murphy, from the Anti-Austerity Alliance, said Labour’s poor performance in the exit polls would be a “political earthquake” if reflected in the vote count. He also said that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil might be forced into a coalition together.

Who’s who in the Irish general election

Fine Gael: A party born out of loyalty to Irish independence military leader Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican diehards for accepting the 1921 Anglo Irish Treaty that partitioned Ireland. Now centre-right in economic policy, strongly pro-European and increasingly socially liberal. Won 76 seats in the 2011 general election – an all-time high.

Fianna Fáil: Founded by Michael Collins’ great civil war rival Éamon de Valera, the party ultimately accepted the Anglo Irish settlement and became the most successful political force in post-independence Irish history. Economically centrist, often populist, it was blamed for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger amid allegations that the party was too close to property speculators and bankers. In the last election it crashed to just 20 seats.

Sinn Féin: The party once known around the world as the political wing of the Provisional IRA has benefited enormously from the Northern Ireland peace process. Led by Gerry Adams, it had 14 seats in the last Dáil and is expected to build on that number this time around, positioning itself as a party of protest against austerity cuts.

Labour: The oldest party in the state and rooted in the trade unions, Labour faces the possibility of electoral meltdown akin to the Liberal Democrat wipeout in the UK last year. Labour was at the vanguard of social change as junior partner in the current government, championing the gay marriage referendum, but it also took flak over the coalition’s unpopular tax rises and public spending cuts.

Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit: Both parties are rooted in the far-left Socialist party (former Militant Tendency) and the Socialist Workers party. They draw support, like Sinn Féin, from urban working-class areas where there is widespread discontent over austerity.

Independents: Possible kingmakers in the new Dáil, they range from maverick centre-right radicals to former Marxists defending individual electoral redoubts.