Adam Schefter reports that the Dolphins rushed to try to get Tua Tagovailoa to Miami for a physical before the NFL halted in-person visits. (1:30)

With one week before the 2020 NFL draft, it's a perfect time to delve deeper into how the Miami Dolphins might get their franchise quarterback.

Today, we finish our four-part series analyzing each top quarterback prospect and his chances of landing in Miami, especially considering the Dolphins are armed with three first-round picks and 14 total selections. This series ends at the same spot where it began over a year ago when it became clear the Dolphins would be players in the quarterback market as the allure of Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa shined bright ("tank for Tua").

The expectation is the Dolphins will select a quarterback in the first round of this draft, sources told ESPN. Miami has done extensive homework on each of the top quarterbacks in the class, and over the past few weeks we've discussed scenarios where the Dolphins make an ambitious trade up for LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, make Utah State's Jordan Love a surprise pick because of his upside, and take comfort with the prototypical size and skill set of Oregon's Justin Herbert.

2020 NFL Draft | Dolphins' QB Pursuit With three first-round picks and 14 total selections, Miami is in rebuilding mode: • Is Justin Herbert the right fit for Miami?

• Trading up for Joe Burrow realistic?

• Could Jordan Love be a surprise pick?

• ESPN+: Will Tua be available at No. 5?

• NFL draft coverage | More Dolphins »

But no draft prospect is as polarizing as Tagovailoa.

Without his devastating hip injury and question marks about durability, Tagovailoa might have challenged Burrow for the No. 1 overall pick. Because of the coronovirus pandemic, teams were unable examine prospects. Tagovailoa couldn't allay many of those questions in pre-draft visits.

The talk around the Dolphins has shifted from how far will they trade up to get Tagovailoa to whether the will they take Herbert instead.

In ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest mock draft, Herbert goes to the Dolphins with the No. 5 pick -- a change from the previous Kiper mock that had Miami selecting Tagovailoa. Over the past week, many mock drafts have made the flip-flop from Tagovailoa to Herbert because of pre-draft buzz suggesting the Dolphins are hesitant about drafting Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins brass will have to make the franchise-changing decision, and it will center on this: Is it a bigger risk for the Dolphins to bet on Tagovailoa ... or pass on him?

A rare breed

All the talk about Tagovailoa's injury history makes it easy to forget how special he is as a quarterback prospect. From the moment Tagovailoa came off the bench as a freshman to lead Alabama's comeback to win the national championship, it was clear he had the "it" factor needed to be an NFL QB.

Tagovailoa is the most efficient quarterback in college football history with a 199.4 career passer efficiency. He has the best career touchdown-interception ratio (7.91, 87 TDs to 11 INTs) in FBS history with a minimum of 70 passing touchdowns. He also has the best QBR (93.5) and yards per attempt (10.88) of any quarterback since at least 2004. For perspective, Tagovailoa's biggest competitor in the draft -- Herbert -- has a 153.1 career passing efficiency grade, a 76 QBR, a 8.15 yards per attempt ratio and a 4.13 TD-to-INT rate.

Tagovailoa is a rare breed who has charisma to match the talent.

In his ESPN Detail breakdown, Alabama coach Nick Saban showed how Tagovailoa's command, intelligence, accuracy and ability to recognize coverages quickly and direct pass protection helped the Crimson Tide's offense run smoothly. On one play, Saban pointed out Tagovailoa's capacity to swiftly go from a run fake to scanning three pass reads before hitting his backside receiver for a touchdown -- all in less than three seconds.

"You can coach players, you can have good plays and all that, but this is an example of where really good players just make a play," Saban said while breaking down a play in which Tagovailoa juked a free blitzer before throwing a touchdown to Jerry Jeudy while getting hit. "Tua is going to be a great NFL quarterback because he's very instinctive. He's got great hands and great touch, which makes him an accurate thrower at all levels. He can throw short. He can throw intermediate and drive the ball. He can throw deep. He's athletic enough to avoid the rush, and he's smart enough to protect himself with his protections."

But Tagovailoa isn't perfect -- the durability and injury concerns are major question marks for NFL teams.

"Everyone wants to write Tua's tombstone, but they wanted to do that to Tom Brady when he tore his ACL. They wanted to do it to Drew Brees when he ripped up his shoulder. They wanted to do it to Teddy Bridgewater when he ripped up his knee," said former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. "Those catastrophic injuries didn't stop those guys because they're mentally and physically tough and they've got grit. Tua has displayed that, and we need to give him more credit for that."

play 1:07 Why doctors are optimistic that Tua will be ready for NFL camps Stephania Bell gives an update on Tua Tagovailoa's health and what it means for his participation at training camp.

'Wrong injury in the wrong year'

Tagovailoa told ESPN this month that he is 100 percent healthy following surgery in November to repair his right posterior wall fracture and dislocated hip. Tagovailoa's two orthopedic surgeons also told ESPN's Stephania Bell last week that he will be fully healthy to participate in football activity when NFL training camps open.

On April 9, Tagovailoa held a private workout and then sent the video to all 32 teams. He ran through a workout with 55 scripted throws and another 20 throws in a dynamic drill. The workout included Tagovailoa throwing on the run, rolling out of the pocket and throwing short, intermediate and deep passes.

Mike Tannenbaum, a former Dolphins executive vice president of football operations (2015-18) and current ESPN analyst, said even though the video helps, he thinks it would be "irresponsible" for a team to take Tagovailoa in the top 10.

"If you're going to make a transformational decision that will change your team for a decade, I just don't understand how in good conscience you can take that player this year who you have to pay a lot of guaranteed money and you can't even examine him. This is a really complicated injury. It's not predictable," Tannenbaum said.

"For an injury like this, you would want him to come in, you would want him to work out, you would want your strength staff and performance guys to see range of motion, see mobility, look at a diagnostic test. You may have him see a specialist. When I've dealt with hip injuries, we've had multiple experts examining and conferring. It's an exhaustive process. These processes have been established for decades by multiple teams, and I just don't know how you can skip them and say we saw this one test over the Internet and feel like he's going to be OK.

"Unfortunately for Tua, it's this weird and unique confluence that it's the wrong injury in the wrong year."

NFL executives believe teams will be more risk-averse this year. A common refrain among those decision-makers has been to expect teams to aim for more singles and doubles, rather than swing for boom-or-bust players. Essentially, teams are expected to seek safer and more NFL-ready players.

The risk with Tagovailoa could be his ability to play quickly and/or his long-term durability. It’s unclear if there will be any residual effects of the injury that later impact his NFL longevity. Those are all things a team would be betting on.

"There’s a lot of uncertainty. As a GM, when you're charged with minimizing risks for the club and you're thinking about drafting him in the top 5, there's nothing else that you can do here," said former NFL executive and ESPN analyst Louis Riddick. "You're going to have to take a leap of faith based on all the medical information that you know and try to forecast whether his availability and durability is going to be that which would make you comfortable to take him. There is no magic formula to make yourself feel better about this."

Repeating history?

The safe choice isn't always the right choice. The Dolphins know that firsthand from deciding not to sign Drew Brees almost 14 years ago, after they deemed his unique shoulder injury too big of a risk. Instead, they traded for Daunte Culpepper, who was coming off a serious knee injury. Miami's doctors viewed Culpepper's situation as the safer route.

Culpepper played four games for the Dolphins as injuries hampered him, and he was released the following offseason. Brees has played 14 seasons with the New Orleans Saints, winning a Super Bowl, making 12 Pro Bowls and becoming the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards, touchdowns and completions. He has missed six games because of injury during that span.

It's worth wondering whether the Brees situation will play out in pre-draft conversations with general manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores. Grier was a Dolphins national scout and assistant director over college scouting in 2006.

The Dolphins have been searching for a franchise quarterback since Dan Marino retired in 2000. Miami hasn't had a Pro Bowl quarterback in 24 seasons, the NFL's longest active streak.

It's an odd coincidence that some evaluators have compared Tagovailoa to a left-handed Brees. Some might view this as an opportunity to correct the Brees oversight. Tagovailoa has the highest chance of any quarterback in this draft to be a consistent starter (66%) and a Pro Bowl talent (23%), according to ESPN Analytics.

According to ESPN's Analytics team, Tua Tagovailoa has the best chance at becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback.



The remaining projected first-round quarterbacks come in at 15% each. pic.twitter.com/zer6DSGmAJ — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 11, 2020

There's plenty of reason to believe Tagovailoa -- if he stays healthy -- can fill that franchise quarterback role and become the face of a South Florida sports market in need of a new star. Miami also is Tagovailoa's preferred destination, sources told ESPN.

Trade up or stay?

The Dolphins have done a good job of hiding their true intentions of whom they prefer to draft at quarterback, and it's an accomplishment given it seemed to be the worst-kept secret that Miami loved Tagovailoa headed into the 2019 season.

It is smokescreen season, and that uncertainty has made it difficult for teams to forecast exactly what the Dolphins will do: Will they stay at No. 5 or will they trade up for their preferred quarterback?

The Los Angeles Chargers, slotted at pick No. 6, appear to be the biggest threat to the Dolphins landing their guy.

ESPN's NFL draft predictor concludes that there is a 33% chance Tagovailoa is available at No. 5, as compared to a 97% chance for Herbert to be available at that pick. If the Dolphins prefer Tagovailoa, the predictor suggests they might need to trade up for him. If it's Herbert, the predictor says the Dolphins can stay put.

Conclusion

Tagovailoa is the perfect example of a high-risk, high-reward prospect. His health complicates a monster decision.

It comes down to this: Are Grier and Flores more comfortable passing on Tagovailoa's talent or betting on his health? It's not a perfect situation, but these decisions rarely are.

For a franchise that has been largely stuck in mediocrity since Marino retired, the Dolphins have to nail their franchise quarterback -- even if he comes with risk.