Sources in Egypt have revealed a new phase in the power struggle within its state institutions. They claim that there are two groups in the Egyptian leadership, one represented by the army and military intelligence, and the other by the presidency and general intelligence agency.

According to a report in Alaraby Aljadeed, the split within the leadership has grown. This was reflected by senior military officers discussing the need for President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi to refrain from running in the 2018 presidential elections. However, Al-Sisi refused to consider this and decided to seek help from allies in general intelligence.

The army, apparently, now regards Al-Sisi as a liability and believes that there is a need for a peaceful handover of power in 2018. Officers feel that this will avoid popular uprisings in light of the declining public popularity of the president due to his failure to solve the serious economic and other problems plaguing Egyptian society. Important goods such as sugar and rice have virtually disappeared from view, and the unprecedented decline in the value of the Egyptian Pound against the US Dollar has led to severe price increases, especially for food items. With the Egyptian people facing such a crisis in their daily lives, the army officers think that it will be unhelpful to portray Al-Sisi as the saviour of Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhood whilst affording him privileges that ordinary citizens can’t even dream about.

Al-Sisi, however, doesn’t accept this scenario and is determined to stay in his position and stand for another term in office. It is said that he is aware that there are some in the army who are opposed to him, hence his request for support from general intelligence officials against their counterparts in military intelligence. Somewhat bizarrely — but somehow very Egyptian — this has spilled over into intense rivalry between competing television presenters.

Although there have been calls for protests on 11 November, none of the opposition groups nor, indeed, the Muslim Brotherhood, have announced their intention to act. Al-Sisi’s advisers know that certain state agencies are behind these calls, which are intended to send the president a clear message that, “Enough is enough; don’t sink the boat for all of us.”

The sources in question added that the countdown for Al-Sisi began months ago, and noted that the army wants to ensure a smooth transition to avoid unrest. In part, it is said that senior officers want to avoid violence in order to maintain the image of the military; Al-Sisi was, after all, defence minister and the head of the military until relatively recently.

In Israel, meanwhile, Yedioth Ahranoth has pointed out that there has been contact between senior Israelis and the US over their concerns for Al-Sisi’s government, as the economic crisis threatens to undermine it completely. The newspaper added that the Israelis and Americans predict imminent danger to Al-Sisi and his government; in the event that radical changes are made to the Egyptian economy in 2017, the Egyptians will go back onto the streets against Al-Sisi’s rule.

The economic crisis in Egypt, said Yedioth Ahranoth, has intensified for a number of reasons, including the fighting in Sinai, Libya and Yemen. In addition, the financial commitments made to Al-Sisi by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have only partially been met.

The Israeli newspaper also noted that there is a realisation among world leaders that 2017 will be a critical year for the Egyptian government; it added that Israel is trying to use its relationship with the US and other countries to support Egypt’s economy.

A report in Reuters said that the Egyptians’ “loss of patience” with Al-Sisi is due to the deteriorating economic situation and the increased burden on the people. It referred to a satirical cartoon circulating on social media, in which an Egyptian is drowning and waving his hand asking for help; Al-Sisi jumps into the water, steals the watch on the drowning Egyptian’s hand, and flees.

This, said Reuters, reflects the desperation and anger amongst Egyptians, who have suffered due to the increased taxes, higher food prices and reduced government subsidies. The rate of inflation has reached 14 per cent, which is the highest it’s been for seven years. Meanwhile, Al-Sisi’s government has raised the price of electricity by 25 to 40 per cent in August, and it is gradually imposing an additional 13 per cent tax approved by parliament. Many Egyptians have complained that they are no longer able to afford meat, and the lack of sugar has provoked fear of an imminent food crisis. Economist Angus Blair from Pharos Investment Bank in Egypt believes that the inflated food prices are at a politically harmful level. “This is a cause for concern,” he explained, “especially given the calls for protests on 11 November.”

The influential news agency suggested that this may lead to a repeat of the massive public protests witnessed in previous years.

Translated from thenewkhalij.org on 26 October 2016.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.