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The likelihood of a warmer than typical summer is better than a coin flip, government forecast says

The forecast does not expect the Shore to be hotter than last summer, which was brutal at times.

The odds are better than 50/50 that the Shore will experience a hotter summer than normal, according to new federal government forecasts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest seasonal forecast says it's more likely than not that the entire state of New Jersey, along with most of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, is in line for a sweatier-than-average June through August.

For the Jersey Shore area, the NOAA pegs the likelihood at 55 percent. There's a one in three chance we have a normal summer, which means an average high temperature in the low 80s.

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This is unwelcome news to those of us who remember the crippling heat that beset the Shore last summer, when 24 of the 61 days in July and August pushed the mercury above 90 degrees.

But NOAA meteorologist Stephen Baxter tells the Asbury Park Press they are expecting summer here to be 1 to 1.5 degrees cooler than in 2016, a "significant" departure for a three-month period.

“This is going to be a warm summer relative to normal, but much closer to those moderate summers that we had a few years ago” he said, pointing toward 2013 through 2015 when a dozen days above 90 was typical on the Shore.

Long-term trends favor higher and higher temperatures every year — attributable to climate change — but the summer forecast has seasonal indicators that vary from year to year.

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Baxter said those variables are pointing toward a milder summer, at least relative to some of the record-breaking heat we've had since 2000.

The NOAA looks at how rainy the summer could be as well, but the odds of an average, above average or below average amount of precipitation were virtually identical.

Accuweather, meanwhile, is predicting a wetter summer season in the Northeast, which should tamp down "extreme and prolonged heat."

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Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com