Campaign Research conducted a national public opinion poll of 2,035 Canadians on their views of the upcoming federal election. For months now, the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) has hovered between 30% - 33% support. In that same period, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has hovered between 34% and 37%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) has remained between 14% - 16%.

Though the SNC-Lavalin affair has had a significant impact on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s “job approval” numbers, it doesn’t seem to have had a significant impact on decided voters, thus far. Though we are now seeing that there has been an impact on the available pool of voters willing to vote for the LPC.

Campaign Research also asked Canadians if they would consider supporting the “other” political parties – this allows us to perform a Voter Gap Analysis. These questions rendered a more comprehensive analysis of what the potential “floors” and “ceilings” are for each political party. It also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” supporters.

The results found that the LPC now has a slightly lower “ceiling” than the CPC, 38% and 41% respectively. It should be noted that the Liberals’ maximum possible vote share (today) is below their share of the popular vote in the last election (39.5%), while the Conservative’s have more room to grow relative to their performance in the 2015 election (32%). The NDP though, have the largest opportunity, having a vote ceiling of 32%, in contrast to the 20% of the popular vote they received in 2015.

It is also important to note that the CPC have 25% of their voters (hard supporters), voting for the CPC and not considering any other party, while the LPC has 18% (hard supporters), voting LPC and not considering any other party. The “hard supporters” (dark blue) also turn out in higher numbers because they are more motivated to vote than any other group(s), giving the CPC a significant advantage.

Justin Trudeau’s “job approval” rating continued to suffer in the aftermath of the SNC-Lavalin affair remaining at a low of 29%, a full 10 points lower than what it is was in December 2018 (39%). Andrew Scheer’s approval rating saw a marginal drop of two percent; however, the largest change came with Jagmeet Singh’s “job approval” rating, which crossed over the 20% threshold, for the first ever.

The Prime Minister’s “job disapproval” rating was also static, holding at last months 58%, while this shows that a clear majority of Canadians disapprove of his performance, it also means that there hasn’t been any further damage over the last 30 days. Once again, Andrew Scheer only saw a marginal change, while Jagmeet Singh saw a substantial decrease in his “job disapproval” rating, raising his net approval rating to -7%, much improved from last months -13%.

Justin Trudeau’s “job approval” rating continued to suffer in the aftermath of the SNC-Lavalin affair remaining at a low of 29%, a full 10 points lower than what it is was in December 2018 (39%). Andrew Scheer’s approval rating saw a marginal drop of two percent; however, the largest change came with Jagmeet Singh’s “job approval” rating, which crossed over the 20% threshold, for the first ever.

Like their approval ratings, Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer, showed only marginal changes on the question of “Who would make the best Prime Minister”. Trudeau is now leading Scheer by 1%, whereas last month Scheer was leading by 1%. This small difference is yet another indication of just how close the two parties are to one another heading into this year’s federal election.

“The Liberal Party of Canada usually enjoys a much higher “vote ceiling” than the Conservative Party. The ongoing SNC-Lavalin affair has reduced the overall pool of voters that the LPC can count on in the next election, matching up with the “job approval/ disapproval” numbers for Justin Trudeau. There are still enough potential Liberal Party voters available for the LPC to win the election, but at this point the CPC base is larger and the overall pool of voters available to both parties, favours the CPC slightly" – said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 x 109

METHODOLOGY

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between April 3 to April 6 through an online survey of 2,035 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"