Toronto Maple Leafs: NHL Draft Targets Beyond the 3rd Round

For fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the lead-up to the 2015 NHL Entry Draft has been riveting.

Ryan Fancey summed up the the feelings in Toronto about the Leafs’ management team as they approach the draft:

In the months since Dubas was hired, it’s been great to listen to the radio or other outlets without a feeling of pure terror about what the Leafs front office might say next.

That’s mostly true.

The @MapleLeafs (and others) are impressed with the depth of the 2015 #NHLDraft. http://t.co/eiE20KS5NM #NHLCombine pic.twitter.com/b8NNCfK5C8 — NHL (@NHL) June 6, 2015

The debate over Noah Hanifin, Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome is intriguing but Kyle Dubas has noted that these prospects are all high-end talents. Instead, Dubas has explained that the focus for the Leafs’ draft team is to land a strong prospect with the Nashville pick at 24th overall.

This line of logic applies even further for the Leafs, who have struggled to identify talented NHL players in general since the turn of the century. Between 2000 and 2010, the Leafs selected Tuukka Rask, Nazem Kadri, Luke Schenn, Jiri Tlusty, Nikolai Kulemin, James Reimer, Viktor Stalberg, Anton Stralman, Alex Steen, Matt Stajan, Ian White, Kyle Wellwood, Brad Boyes.

Some skill, sure.

Rask has been great for Boston. Stralman has emerged as a true top-pair defenseman with the Tampa Bay Lightning this year. Steen has had some very hot streaks. Kadri has untapped potential.

But in general, Toronto’s draft performance has been a sore spot, especially beyond the first couple of rounds. Between 2000 and 2010, the Leafs selected 69 players in round three and later. Of these 69 players, 12 have played over 100 NHL games, which is about 17 percent. That rate of drafting players with 100 games is below the overall norm for draft success – the likelihood of drafting a 100 GP player ranges from a high of 41 percent in the middle of round 2 to a low of 8 percent in round 6. Generally speaking, the Leafs are below average in each round.

The lack of mid- to late-round finds for the Leafs has left their prospect pool thin.

For an organization now focused on amassing as many talented players as they can, securing quality prospects with middle and late round picks is key.

The Leafs don’t draft in the second round this year, so their first pick after the 24th overall selection will be 65th. Below, we’ll examine two prospects who should be available and who offer the sort of high-upside skill the Leafs desperately need.

Pius Suter

Congrats to Pius Suter of @storm_city on being named OHL's Most Improved Player. pic.twitter.com/2Q7q4TejC1 — Gar FitzGerald (@gar_pic) March 20, 2015

Key Statistics

Goals Primary Assists Secondary Assists Points Points Per Game Estimated Points/60 NHL Equivalence Goals Created/GP % of Team Goals Created Pius Suter 43 21 8 72 1.18 2.63 29 0.488 12.57%

*all stats courtesy of CHLstats.com

The Good

In the mold of the pint-sized skilled forwards that are coming to dominate the NHL, Pius Suter is talented but small. His 43 goals in 61 games shows dynamic scoring ability. Noted for his work ethic, hockey sense, penalty killing and “no-maintenance” style, the Swiss-native seems to offer the intangibles scouts look for in prospects.

His advanced stats check out as well. CHLstats has created an “NHL equivalence” stat that describes how a CHL player’s scoring would translate to the NHL level in the current season. The Swiss sniper’s 29 NHL equivalence points ranked 29th in the OHL, ahead of draft-eligible notables like Travis Konecny and Mitchell Vande Sompel and already-drafted prospects like Nick Paul and Tobias Lindberg.

Guelph Storm’s head scout Chris McCleary describes Suter as:

[A] great penalty killer for us. I thought he was the most underrated player from the Championship team and the organization saw a lot of offensive upside in him. It was unfortunate that he was not drafted last year but he definitely proved a lot of people wrong this year. Provided more ice time this year and more quality minutes, he took full advantage of it and went from being a depth player to one of our most important players. What sets Suter aside from his peers is his hockey IQ. He also has a very good skill set and work ethic. I think anytime a player can combine a high hockey IQ and good work ethic they are only going to get better.

The Concerns

At 5’11” and 165 pounds, Suter likely needs to add size before working his way into the NHL. He was passed over in the 2014 NHL Draft after scoring nine goals and 24 points in 66 games for the championship-winning Guelph Storm team. Suter is also an overager and has signed on with the ZSC Lions in Switzerland for next season.

While these considerations give pause, Suter seems to be the kind of high-skill, high-upside prospect that Toronto would be wise to scoop up in the third round.

Conor Garland

Conor Garland wins the Jean Béliveau Trophy & Michel-Brière Trophy (MVP) #MonctonWildcats #QMJHL #HockeyCat #Congrats pic.twitter.com/eY3ZIzwDk5 — Scott Reeder (@ScottDReeder) April 9, 2015

Key Statistics

Goals Primary Assists Secondary Assists Points Points Per Game Estimated Points/60 NHL Equivalence Goals Created/GP % of Team Goals Created Conor Garland 35 63 31 129 1.93 7.27 41 0.544 12.7%

*all stats courtesy of CHLstats.com

The Good

Conor Garland enjoyed a huge season in the QMJHL, winning the league’s scoring race with 129 points. During his breakout, overager season, Garland shot from unranked at midterm to 86th overall rank among North American skaters at NHL.com’s Central Scouting.

His stock is rising fast.

The quick jump into the pre-draft prospect ranks doesn’t surprise as Garland’s advanced stats were outstanding. He ranked second in the QMJHL in NHL equivalence points, finishing with 41 – one behind Jets’ prospect Nikolaj Ehlers. The U.S.-product flashed his playmaking talents, finishing the year with 63 primary assists – 20 ahead of second place. Still, Garland ranked 21st in the Q in goals and fourth in goals created per game.

The young pivot’s game is centred on the kind of high-end talent that the Leafs wish to add. Kyle Woodlief describes Garland’s game in this way:

[Conor Garland possesses] quickness and agility as well as very high hockey sense and vision. He always has his feet moving and his eyes scanning the ice surface, and his soft hands enable him to make beautiful saucer passes…Getting to the pros will depend on being able to get stronger physically so he doesn’t get knocked around so much, though to this point he has been willing to take the abuse.

With scoring, vision, quickness, and a strong hockey IQ, Garland’s rising stock makes him a steal in the third round. He’s precisely the high-end, talented pick that the Leafs seem intent on considering in this draft.

The Concerns

Listed at 5’8, 163 pounds, Garland is very small by NHL standards. Additionally, he posted 54 points in 51 games in 2013-14, his first draft-eligible year. The production was reasonable but not spectacular. Coupled with concerns about his size, Garland was completely passed over last draft and only emerged as a touted draft candidate midway through this season.

But this NHL season has done wonders for the draft chances of undersized and skillful prospects.

Raise your hand if you’ve heard the “Tyler Johnson went undrafted” tale during the NHL playoffs.

By now, NHL managers and scouts are waking up to the potential for undersized players to make an impact at the pro level. Garland’s draft chances hinge on this shift in thinking.

Maple Leafs interim GM Mark Hunter talks draft approach at the 2015 #NHLCombine http://t.co/zvmqCEioQy pic.twitter.com/6UzKLRugrC — Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 6, 2015

In his latest interview about the draft, Leafs co-interim general manager Mark Hunter repeated the “best player available” refrain. While the Leafs’ spotty draft record does little to give fans hope that the team can identify talent as the draft wears on, the new management team has inspired confidence with their willingness to talk analytics and choose top-end skill over size or other intangibles.

If the Leafs are serious about looking for the most highly-skilled players they can select, expect Pius Suter and Conor Garland to get long looks in the middle of this June’s draft.

What do you think, Leafs fans? Does the new management group inspire your confidence that the Leafs can draft well? Do Suter and Garland excite you as third- or fourth-round selections?