S&P Global Market Intelligence ($):

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected lower U.S. thermal and metallurgical coal exports in 2019 and 2020 than it estimated in June.

The administration forecast that U.S. thermal coal exports will sink by 17.6% to 44.6 million tons this year and by another 12.6% to 39 million tons in 2020, according to its July 9 “Short-Term Energy Outlook.” The administration had projected in its June report that steam exports would total 46.3 million tons in 2019 and 41.3 million tons in 2020.

The EIA projected that total U.S. coal exports will fall by 16.9% to 96.1 million tons this year and by another 8.6% to 87.8 million tons in 2020. Export prices dropped and have remained low through the first half of 2019, which may hinder certain producers’ ability to compete internationally as their contracts roll off.

U.S. coal miners are expected to produce 684 million tons of coal this year, a 9.5% decrease from 2018. Output may drop by another 6.5% in 2020 to 639.4 million tons as domestic utilities consume less coal and seaborne demand for U.S. coal weakens.

The administration expects coal consumption to drop 14.3% this year to 589 million tons and then 3.7% to 567 million tons in 2020. The domestic power sector has retired nearly 18 GW of coal-fired capacity since the beginning of 2018, and another 4 GW and 3 GW are slated for retirement by the end of this year and 2020, respectively.

“The 2019 forecast production of 684 [million tons] would be the first time U.S. production would be less than 700 [million tons] in more than 40 years,” the EIA said.

More ($): EIA projects lower U.S. coal exports in 2019-2020 compared to June estimate