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Light Heavyweight Championship

Daniel Cormier (18-1; 7-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Johnson (22-5; 13-5 UFC)

Champion Cormier and challenger Johnson meet for the second time nearly two years after their first clash, when Cormier ate some enormous shots before wearing Johnson down and finishing with a choke.

Cormier has defended his belt only once, defeating Alexander Gustafsson in October 2015. He also won what amounted to an exhibition match with Anderson Silva when Jon Jones popped for performance-enhancing drugs just before their scheduled rematch at UFC 200 last summer.

Johnson has been a terrifying wrecking ball since that loss to Cormier, knocking out each of his three opponents inside six minutes. Only Jimi Manuwa survived to the second round, while his last opponent, Glover Teixeira, went down in just 13 seconds.

Until Jones finds his way back to the top of the division, this is the best fight that can be made, and the winner will be a worthy champion.

Cormier has focused more and more on forward movement and pressure since dropping down to 205 pounds. This makes perfect sense: He can no longer count on being the quicker fighter, but his squat frame, raw strength and outstanding wrestling game make him more suited to being an inside bruiser than a short stick-and-move striker.

Despite his lack of height—he's generously listed at 5'11"—Cormier fights tall at range. He throws a steady diet of front and round kicks, and does an exceptional job of covering his forward movement with a sharp jab. When he gets into the pocket, he fires off hard combinations of power punches.

Cormier doesn't mind exchanging punches and is an effective, if not textbook, defensive fighter. Still, his constant pressure and lack of height means he spends a lot of time in range to be hit, even if it's not as easy as it looks to hit him cleanly.

While he's a steady, high-output striker who can win fights in that phase, Cormier's pressure game is designed to bring him into close range. Once he's in tight, Cormier can either change levels and shoot for takedowns or, more likely, drive into the clinch.

The former Olympian is one of the best wrestlers in MMA. He's a punishing dirty boxer who excels at controlling with collar ties or underhooks and blasting away with his free hand. Alternatively, he can shove his opponent into the fence and work a quick go-behind that opens up big slams and his trademark single-leg lift. Everything he does is crisp and technical.

This is a grinding approach that can eat up minutes at a time and deliver some serious damage. In combination with Cormier's stifling ground game, opponents drain their gas tanks quickly trying to escape.

On the mat, Cormier generally prefers a loose style of control that allows his opponent to move and burn energy. His wrestling rides are some of the best in the sport, and he combines them with more traditional top control that features brutal punches and elbows. The occasional submission attempt adds some variety.

Johnson is a puncher, easily the most dangerous in the division and perhaps in the UFC as a whole. He's aggressive by nature and loves to stalk his opponent, using a probing jab, sharp footwork and heavy round kicks to force his opponent backward and cut off his escape angles.

At his best, Johnson is an exceptional counterpuncher. His speed, timing, accuracy and triggers are all exceptional, and he's great at picking the right strike to work around, under or through his opponent's guard. He moves his head, blocks or parries and immediately has the right shot ready to go in response. Any shot he lands has the power to finish the fight.

At his worst, though, Johnson lets his aggressiveness get the best of him, and he wings wild hooks and overhands in the pocket with no real plan or sense of the distance between him and his opponent.

The difference between those two versions of Johnson is patience and control. When he trusts his pressure and lets that draw his opponent into something ill-advised, whether a strike he can counter or a takedown from too far away, Johnson is a monster; when he tries to force it or feels like he's losing the initiative, Johnson cracks mentally and tends to tire himself out quickly.

Wrestling is a strong secondary skill set for Johnson. He's punishing in the clinch and throws brutal hooks and uppercuts from the single-collar tie, though he rarely looks to spend much time there, and he shoots a lovely, explosive double-leg takedown. Skilled takedown defense generally keeps him standing.

Betting Odds

Johnson -125, Cormier +105

Prediction

This is a razor-thin fight and both Cormier and Johnson have definite paths to victory. For Comier, that path revolves around weathering the early storm, wearing Johnson down and either finishing late or winning a decision. For Johnson, he needs to stay measured and keep Cormier at distance while punishing the champion with counters when he tries to jab his way inside.

Both fighters have problems to worry about, too. Johnson's tendency to panic when things aren't going his way, with the accompanying habit of going hog-wild trying to finish, is terrible in the face of a tough, tireless fighter like Cormier. Conversely, Cormier is always there to be hit and has been knocked down twice in his last three fights.

Johnson has improved since their first fight, but so has Cormier. The basic outlines of the matchup haven't changed, and with that in mind, the pick is Cormier by fourth-round knockout as the battered, bruised champion rains down shots on an exhausted Johnson for the finish.

Betting odds courtesy of OddsShark and current on Thursday, April 6.



Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.