Heading into the 2017-18 season, Chris Tierney needed to fully establish himself as an effective center. With Ryan Carpenter, Dylan Gambrell, and Danny O’Regan in the pipeline and Tierney’s contract expiring, a bad season would likely send Tierney packing.

A year later, Carpenter and O’Regan are no longer with the Sharks, and Tierney appears to be the third-line center of the future. For his efforts, he was also rewarded with a two-year, $5.875 million contract to keep him in San Jose for the short-term future.

In 82 games last season, Tierney totaled 17 goals and 23 assists for 40 points, setting career-bests in goals, assists, and points. Before last season, Tierney’s previous high was 23 points. On paper, that’s a solid career year, and increased production from your depth centers is always a good thing.

The difficult part is counting on Tierney to do it again.

While Tierney has always had decent playmaking skills, he has generally struggled to generate possession throughout his career regardless of if he is the third-line center or the fourth-line center. In his four seasons with the Sharks, he has never had a season with a CF% of 50% or higher and he has never had a positive relative CF%. These are not attributes of a quality third-line center.

The other issue is with where and when his scoring contributions are coming from. Out of his 40 points, only 22 (10g/12a) came at 5v5. Looking only at his 5v5 contributions, his production is somewhere between a third-line center and fourth-line center looking at this HERO chart from @MimicoHero

Tierney finished last season with a 49.13% CF%, a relative CF% of 2.25, an xGF% of 50.06, and a relative xGF% of -2.58. That’s simply not good enough, especially for a third-line center on a team that thinks it is competing for championships. In order to win the Stanley Cup, you need to have elite center depth, including the third line. The Capitals have Lars Eller. The Penguins had Nick Bonino (and Jordan Staal in 2009). The Blackhawks had Antoine Vermette and Andrew Shaw on their championship teams. Point is, believing that Chris Tierney has suddenly turned into a quality third-line center is ludicrous.

There is an argument to be made that his production can offset some of the possession problems. He and Kevin Labanc tied for fifth on the team for the most points, after all. However, by my count, of his 40 points, only 14 came against playoff teams in 42 regular season games. Tierney tore apart teams that missed the playoffs like Calgary, Vancouver, and Buffalo, against whom he had 12 points in 11 games combined. This struggle against better teams was highlighted by his measly two points in 10 playoff games.

As with any center, it’s important to note who he was playing with. Tierney spent a lot of time with Mikkel Boedker, who was never much of a fit with the Sharks from Day 1. Of the seven lines that Tierney spent the most time with, Boedker was in five of them. He spent 451 minutes of 5v5 time with Tierney, more than any other Shark. And, as we have previously established, Boedker isn’t a very good player, despite his point production.

But remove Boedker from the equation, and the results are… better, but still not quite where the Sharks need Tierney to be. Take a look at this WOWY viz from hockeyviz.com

The problem with Tierney is that players aren’t better off for playing with him. For most players, they get better results away from Tierney than with him. At best, Tierney is average. Third-line center may not be the most immediate need for the Sharks, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to make an upgrade if need be.

When you look at the non-Boedker lines individually, you also get better results from Tierney. His best line was by far and away with Joonas Donskoi and Timo Meier. In 83 minutes, the trio combined for 59.52% possession and 57.05% xGF%. That’s the kind of play that the Sharks need from their third line.

The other non-Boedker line, consisting of Tierney, Meier, and Labanc (which I’m calling the Homegrown Line since all three were all drafted by the Sharks), was also very good, especially considering their deployment. CF%-wise, they just barely broke even at 50.55%. But considering that their ZSR was 41.79, that’s a pretty good possession number. Even better is their 53.42% xGF% and a positive relative xGF%.

The gist here is that if you put good players with Chris Tierney, you’ll likely get, at worst, decent results. The problem comes when you play him with players who are not as good. And that is the definition of average in my book.

2018-19 Outlook

Tierney will most likely end up centering the third line next season, and, as just stated, a lot of his production will likely depend on both who he plays with, who he plays against, and how much power play time he’ll have.

I see Evander Kane, Joe Pavelski, Tomas Hertl, and Meier filling out the top-six on the wings, leaving Donskoi and Labanc for the third line. Meier needs to play top-six minutes; he won’t develop or produce playing on the third line like he would on either of the top two lines. Tierney, Donskoi, and Labanc didn’t spend any significant time playing together last season, so I really don’t have much to go on here. Still, it should be a decent line that takes some of the burden off the top two lines.

The problem is whether or not Tierney will spend much time on the second power-play unit. The Sharks went with a 3F/2D approach on the second unit for much of last season, meaning that the Sharks could only end up using seven forwards spread across both units. Is Tierney one of the Sharks’ seven best forwards? I don’t think so. Even if the Sharks roll a 4F/1D second power-play unit, I still don’t think Tierney is the Sharks’ eighth-best forward.

However, with Couture, Thornton, and Pavelski all on the first unit, there is an absence of centers on the second unit, and Peter DeBoer doesn’t seem like the type to use all wingers on a power play unit. The Sharks do like Tierney’s raw playmaking skills, but I still think that the Sharks have better options at their disposal.

But let’s assume that Tierney gets some time on the second unit like he did last season. We have already established that Tierney’s play at 5v5 is average at best possession-wise, but he’s actually a pretty decent shooter; he just doesn’t pull the trigger very often. 215 players had at least as much icetime as Tierney had last season at 5v5 (1053 minutes), and Tierney ranked 169th in shots on goal. But out of those 215 players, Tierney (10.99%) finished in 36th in shooting percentage, ahead of players like Artemi Panarin, Phil Kessel, Mitch Marner, and reigning MVP Taylor Hall.

And it’s not as if that’s out of the ordinary for Tierney. His shooting percentages at 5v5 read: 11.63%, 3.61%, 11.84, 10.99%. It’s never been a question of if Tierney can score goals; it is, however, a question of if Tierney can generate enough goal-scoring chances.

At this point in time, Tierney is who he is. At 24 years-old, six years removed from being drafted, and entering his fifth full NHL season, Tierney is pretty much finished with his development. Barring anything out of the ordinary, Tierney isn’t becoming the next Couture for the Sharks. Third-line center is Tierney’s ceiling.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tierney matched his goal total from last year, as his goal-scoring outburst from last season was largely fueled by a higher volume of shots and more power play time as opposed to a significant jump in shooting percentage, but that is still dependent on the amount of power play time he plays this upcoming season. If he does, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tierney had similar production.

The other thing to consider is that Tierney won’t be playing with Mikkel Boedker this season after he was traded to the Ottawa Senators. Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier, and Kevin Labanc are all better options on the third line, and Tierney should see better results at 5v5.

But power play time might become an issue, and if it does, it’s going to be a lot harder for Tierney to match his career year from last season. And if the Sharks are going to be competing for the Stanley Cup, they need Tierney to have another solid year.

Next up: Timo Meier

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