GSK's swine flu windfall under threat



Glaxosmithkline's £2billion swine flu windfall is under threat after it emerged talks are ongoing to return millions of unused doses of its new vaccine.

The surprise news comes from Spain where the take-up rates for the jab have fallen well below initial estimates.

Meanwhile in Germany, one of GSK's major customers, orders are also being scaled back.

GSK: Firm estimates sales of Pandemrix could be 15%, or £330million, lower than initially thought

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Europe's largest drug group has so far lined up sales of 440million vials of Pandemrix, expected to net revenues of £1billion this year alone.

And this was expected to rise to £2.2billion over the course of the pandemic, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

But it estimates sales of Pandemrix could be 15 per cent, or £330million, lower than initially thought.

Germany initially ordered 50million doses of the drug and Spain bought 14.7million from GSK.

But only 20 per cent of the high-risk groups in Spain volunteered to be vaccinated against the H1N1 bug.

Germany is also scaling back its requirements as it feels patients will need just one jab and not two as initially thought.

In Madrid the talks with drug companies are advanced, accordingto health minister Trinidad Jimenez. 'We are speaking with the pharmaceutical companies' about returning unused vaccine, she said.

'The contracts signed with the companies from which we acquired the vaccines included clauses which allow the return of unused vaccines so they can be distributed to other countries,' Jimenez told APM Health Europe.

A GSK spokesman said: 'We continue to support governments in managing the H1N1 influenza pandemic. This includes ongoing discussions for existing and new orders for our pandemic vaccines.'

Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation cautioned the flu threat had not receded. Its Assistant Director General for Health, Keiji Fukuda, said: 'This is a virus that we don't expect to just suddenly disappear.'

He reckoned countries with surplus vaccine had 'a number of options', including donating to those who have none, or keeping them in reserve for a later date.

The Geneva-based group is coordinating efforts to encourage rich countries to share vaccines with poorer nations. Six manufacturers and 12 countries have so far pledged some 180m doses of vaccines to around 95 countries.

GSK shares fell 22p to 1297p.