TURKEY'S ruling Justice and Development (AK) party has romped to a third consecutive election victory, winning almost 50% support in yesterday's parliamentary vote, and 326 seats in the 550-member legislature.



The country's charismatic prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, becomes the first Turkish leader not only to win three consecutive elections, but to increase his party's share of the vote each time. (AK scored 47% in the last election, in 2007.) The government's nine-year record of strong economic growth, improved social services and unprecedented stability overshadowed concerns over what some see as Mr Erdoğan's growing fondness for authoritarian tactics.

AK's strong showing also reflects the rise of a long-repressed class of conservative Sunni Muslim Anatolians, who have supplanted the old army-backed elite as Turkey's new masters.



In his victory speech, Mr Erdoğan sought to assuage fears about his governing style. "No one should have any doubt: whether you voted for us or not, all of your lifestyles and beliefs are our pride. We haven't come to punish, we have come to love," he declared before a crowd of ecstatic supporters.



Yet in some ways the result will have been a disappointment for Mr Erdoğan. Although AK received 5m more votes than it did in 2007, by a quirk of Turkey's proportional voting system the party will hold slightly fewer seats in parliament, and significantly less than the two-thirds majority it was seeking that would have allowed it to rewrite the constitution without consulting either the opposition or the voters (in a referendum).



Mr Erdoğan has made no secret of his plans to scrap the current document, which was written by the generals following a military coup in 1980. He wants to introduce a French-style presidential system, boosting the powers of an office he hopes to occupy himself. Aiming to win the super-majority that would have made this task easier, Mr Erdoğan adopted a strident anti-Kurdish tone on the campaign trail in an attempt to keep the ultra-nationalist MHP party below the 10% threshold needed to win seats in parliament.



In the event the MHP scraped through, with 13%. So Mr Erdoğan will need to reach out to the opposition (or lure defectors). The scale of yesterday's victory suggests that the government should not struggle to win a referendum on any constitutional revisions.

The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) secured 26% of the vote yesterday, up five percentage points from 2007, the party's best result in over three decades. Still, it remains unclear whether this will be enough to cement the leadership of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who took over last year. Mr Kılıçdaroğlu has boldly sought to reshape the CHP, which for decades was a slavish mouthpiece for the army. He has called for decentralising power, thereby granting the Kurds greater autonomy, and keeping the generals under strict civilian control.

This approach has not been to everyone's taste, and remnants of the CHP old guard will now seek to unseat Mr Kılıçdaroğlu. Should the party get bogged down in a fresh leadership battle Mr Erdoğan will have an even freer hand.



But it won't be all plain sailing. The pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy party (BDP), which fielded independents so as to get around the 10% threshold, won a record 36 seats. This puts the party in a strong position to negotiate on its pet issues, from the incarceration conditions of Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK, an armed rebel group, to the 10%-threshold rule, allowing education in the Kurdish language, and ending army operations against the PKK.



It remains unclear whether Mr Erdoğan can accommodate these demands without compromising his popularity in a future presidential election, which could be held as early as next year. Worse, the PKK has threatened to end its unilateral ceasefire and take its battle to Turkey's cities if the government ignores its calls.



Another worry facing Mr Erdoğan is Turkey's overheated economy. Bankers say that AK is best placed to deal with the country's ballooning current-account deficit, but not everyone agrees with its approach.

And finally there is trouble on the borders. More than 5,000 Syrians have fled to Turkey in recent days as President Bashar al-Assad has intensified his bloody battle against anti-government protestors. Mr Erdoğan has been urging Mr Assad to meet their demands. Last month Turkey hosted a meeting of the Syrian opposition to increase pressure on the regime. Yet the bloodshed continues.

The endgame in Syria is far from clear. But Mr Erdoğan, with help from his wily foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, has proved adept at surviving previous crises. Another reason why Turks voted for them in such large numbers.