We are in the middle of my favorite part of the college football season as bowl games are going on. In this article, I will be previewing bowl games taking place from December 26th through December 30th, not including NY6 Bowls or Playoff Semifinals which will get their own preview. If you are looking for a specific game, they are listed in order of starting time.

Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs Miami

Betting Line: Miami -6.5

Over/Under: 50.5

Louisiana Tech did lose two of their last three games, but it is hard for the Bulldogs to really be upset at a 9-3 season. Quarterback J’Mar Smith took a big step forward this season, completing 66% of his passes for 281 yards per game and a touchdown to interception ratio of 17/4. Louisiana Tech is 9-1 with Smith as the starter with the lone loss coming against Texas. What Smith will need to do well this game is evade a pass rush and not hold onto the ball too long. The Bulldogs are not bad on the offensive line but Miami gets after the quarterback with ease against better teams than Louisiana Tech. Smith will also need solid protection from his offensive line if he wants to get comfortable at all in the pocket. Running back Justin Henderson is another important player for the Bulldogs in this game. Henderson might have just 967 rushing yards, but he is a very good power back that has a nose for the end zone, with 15 rushing touchdowns this season. If Henderson can fight through tackles well on the line, he could be a very reliable source of yardage, especially since Miami’s elite linebacking corps are a bit banged up at the moment. On defense, I think Louisiana Tech should have little trouble when it comes to getting to the quarterback. The Bulldogs are not a super talented team when it comes to rushing the passer, but Miami’s offensive line is being held together by duct tape and gorilla glue at the moment. I would look for defensive end Milton Williams and outside linebacker Willie Baker to make their fair share of plays and alter Miami’s passing game by getting a good rush. Safeties L’Jarius Sneed and Darryl Lewis will need to be ready to cover Miami tight end Brevin Jordan. Jordan has never had the benefit of playing with a great quarterback, but he is still one of the best tight ends in the country. If Jordan can be held in check, Miami loses their security blanket on offense and their already faulty passing game will suffer.

While expectations were not super high under first year head coach Manny Diaz, Miami had what can generously be called an up and down season as the Hurricanes went 6-6 and had some pretty questionable losses in that time. While the novelty of the turnover chain has worn off a bit, Miami is still led by a punishing defense that is built on big plays. Redshirt freshman defensive end Gregory Rousseau has been one of the biggest breakout stars of this college football season, racking up 18 tackles for loss and 14 sacks. While Shaq Quarterman is still manning the linebackers and making plays, he be without his main partner in crime as Michael Pinckney is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Quarterman and Rousseau will be two players opposing offenses can focus a lot of their energy on, which means other players need to step up. Linebacker Romeo Finley and defensive end Jonathan Garvin need to come up big when opposing offenses key on Rousseau and Quarterman. I think that Miami should not need to put a ton of focus into rushing the passer to get a good pass rush as Louisiana Tech’s offensive line is not quite as stout as many of the ones Miami has faced. On offense, the Hurricanes will be depleted at running back as Deejay Dallas is still out and Cam’ron Harris will play but is hampered by what is just being described as a lower body injury. Harris and secondary back Robert Burns will be put into a more integral position than they have been used to and they can not shy away from the moment. The injuries at running back also mean that quarterback Jarren Williams will need to do well. Receiver Jeff Thomas is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL Draft and tight end Brevin Jordan is listed as questionable for the game with a foot injury. This means KJ Osborn and Mike Harley will have to step up as the main targets. If Jordan is unable to play, it will be tough for Miami as he is one of the best tight ends in the country. If Jordan does not play, someone will need to emerge as a check down option.

Prediction:

Louisiana Tech takes advantage of a beat up Miami team and wins 24-21.

QuickLane Bowl: Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan

Betting Line: Eastern Michigan +11.5

Over/Under: 49

Pittsburgh finished off their regular season 7-5 but being in this game has to be a disappointment after being a contender to win the ACC Coastal late in the season. The Panthers are going into this game with some uncertainty on offense. Leading receiver Taysir Mack will likely play but is nursing an ankle injury and second leading receiver Maurice Ffrench is listed as a questionable with a jaw injury. These injuries will put more pressure on the Panthers to establish the run game with running back AJ Davis and quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett might not have the best passing stats, but he is capable of elevating his play when the game is on the line. If Pickett can be accurate with the ball, the falloff for the offense will be less without a fully healthy receiving corps. The offensive line will also be important as they have struggled a bit in pass protection. The offense will run much more smoothly if Pickett can have sufficient time to throw and the run game can develop. On defense, the Panthers need to contain Eastern Michigan’s dual threat quarterback Mike Glass. Pittsburgh has quite a few strong pass rushers on their defensive line led by defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman who has 12 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks this season. Twyman and defensive end Patrick Jones make up a defensive line that leads the country with an average of 4.1 sacks per game. I think if Pittsburgh can reach that number, they will be in a good spot. Tight coverage will also be important, but I have confidence in Dane Jackson and Damarri Mathis to hold down their spots.

Eastern Michigan fell to Kent State in their regular season finale, but it is hard to be too upset at a bowl berth as the Eagles have scored their third bowl berth in four years but they only had two before that. Head coach Chris Creighton has done a tremendous job building this program and I am shocked he has not been poached by a bigger program yet. Eastern Michigan’s offense is led by quarterback Mike Glass who has thrown for 2,844 yards and 21 touchdowns while completing 67% of his passes and rushing for 345 yards and seven touchdowns. If Glass has a good game, the offense in general will likely have a good game. Running back Shaq Vann will also need to provide some contribution in the run game. If Vann can be a reliable source of yardage in the run game, it can force Pittsburgh to keep their defense balanced and prevent them from totally keying in on Glass. Glass also needs to take care of the ball as he has thrown 10 interceptions this season. This can be aided by the offensive line giving him time to throw. Pittsburgh’s defense has the most sacks per game in the country and will live in the backfield if Eastern Michigan is not careful. Glass will need solid protection if the Eagles want to keep this close. On defense, Eastern Michigan should focus on stopping the run. Pittsburgh is battling injuries at key receiver spots and I think the cornerbacks the Eagles have should be able to handle their business. I think blitzes should be utilized and that they should aim to create chaos. I think this is a tactic that a less talented team should employ often and it also fits Pittsburgh’s offense well. Appropriately named defensive end Turan Rush will be the guy to do just that against the pass as he leads the team in sacks. Terry Myrick and the linebacking corps will need to step up in run defense.

Prediction:

Eastern Michigan keeps it close for a bit before Pittsburgh pulls away and wins 27-13.

Military Bowl: North Carolina vs Temple

Betting Line: Temple +4.5

Over/Under: 53

After going 2-9 in 2018, North Carolina has had a very impressive turnaround this season under Mack Brown. The Tar Heels have seen a lot of improvement offensively this season with true freshman Sam Howell at quarterback. Howell has thrown for 3,347 yards and 35 touchdowns this season on 8.6 yards per attempt. While Howell has played very impressively this season, I do worry about true freshmen in big games. This can be offset by having the run game develop. Michael Carter and Javonte Williams make up a solid duo on the ground and getting the two of them going can help Howell ease into the passing game and balance out Temple’s defense. Receivers Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown are both very good athletes and if North Carolina can use them creatively as they have been, they can add an extra gear to their offense. On the offensive line, the Tar Heels need to contain Temple defensive end Quincy Roche who has 13 sacks and 18 tackles for loss this season. Offensive tackles Charlie Heck and Jordan Tucker will have to do well in pass blocking. Defensively, I think run pursuit will be key. Temple is built around a backfield that is very good at getting the hard yard. This means that the Tar Heels need to swarm the ball and keep Temple from just grinding out yards. Linebacker Chazz Surratt will be a key player in this task as he leads the team in tackles and tackles for loss. If Surratt and fellow linebackers Tomon Fox, Dominique Ross, and Jeremiah Gemmel can fight off blocks and swarm the ball, then I think their run defense will be effective. Cornerbacks Storm Duck and Trey Morrison also need to be ready to make plays in coverage as Temple quarterback Anthony Russo can be a bit prone to interceptions. Safety Myles Dorn should also be ready for opportunities to make plays on the ball in coverage.

Temple finished off the first season of Rod Carey’s tenure with a solid 8-4 record that included a win over former head coach Geoff Collins and his Georgia Tech squad. The Owls have had a new coach but they have kept their offensive identity similar to what it had been under Collins. Temple’s offense primarily relies on the run game, specially pounding the ball with a more power based back. The lead back for this team is Re’Mahn Davis who has 900 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry. For Davis and secondary back Jager Gardner to get going, they need to play well and the offensive line needs to block well, especially on the second level as North Carolina has a strong group of linebackers. The interior offensive line especially needs to be able to reach the linebackers and pick up on blitzes well. This will also help Temple stay ahead of the chains when they move the ball downfield. Quarterback Anthony Russo also needs to be able to play his part on passing downs. He also needs to keep mistakes to a minimum as he has thrown 11 interceptions this season. Defensively, the Owls should try to get a solid pass rush against North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell. Howell has some prolific numbers this season, but he is a true freshman and could be forced into freshman mistakes. Defensive end Quincy Roche is a guy who can do just that as he has racked up 18 tackles for loss and 13 sacks this season. If Roche and defensive tackle Ifeanyi Maijeh can get a good rush like that have for this season, they can make things a bit tougher on Howell. Another thing that Temple needs to focus on is defending two solid deep threat receivers in North Carolina’s Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown. Cornerbacks Harrison Hand and Christian Braswell need to stay with their guy and not get burned by someone who thrives in open space. I expect the Owls to use free safety Amir Tyler to help in coverage over the top and he needs to be ready to pick up the slack as well.

Prediction:

North Carolina guts out a 28-24 win.

Pinstripe Bowl: Michigan State vs Wake Forest

Betting Line: Wake Forest +3.5

Over/Under: 50

Michigan State has some low moments this season but they did manage to claw their way to 6-6 and secure a bowl berth for the 11th time in Mark Dantonio’s tenure. The Spartans, like they have in recent years, rely on a stout defense. Michigan State has excelled against the run this season as they have the 14th best defense in the country in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. While the defense has taken a step back since all-Big 10 linebacker Joe Bachie was suspended for PED’s, it is still among the best in the Power Five. Linebacker Antjuan Simmons leads the team with 81 tackles and 15 tackles for loss. Defensive end Kenny Willekes is second on the team with 14 tackles for loss and leads the team with 8.5 sacks. Raequan Williams and brothers Mike and Jacub Panasiuk round out a very strong defensive line. A benefit to this is that I do not think Michigan State needs to be as aggressive in their pass rush and run defense as I think their four man defensive line can do a lot of the work themselves. Wake Forest does not rely on their run game very much, but they do have a quarterback that likes to scramble and the Spartans need to be ready for it. If Jacub Panasiuk and Willekes can contain the outside at defensive end and the Spartans can employ an effective quarterback spy, then Wake Forest quarterback Jamie Newman should have a hard time getting too comfortable and the run game will have a tough time developing. Wake Forest also tends to be slow in letting run plays develop and I think this could be a prime opportunity for the Spartans to create a big play. Offensively is unfortunately where Michigan State has struggled at times this season. It also does not help that leading rusher Elijah Collins and second leading receiver Darrell Stewart Jr. are both listed as questionable for the game. While I think Stewart has shown a lot of promise when healthy this season, losing Collins will be a lot tougher to overcome. Collins has run for 892 yards this season and there is not a single other running back on the roster with more than 100 yards. Losing Collins will make things much harder on the run game. This also puts an increased amount of pressure on the offensive line that already can not be fully trusted. While it has improved, there are still steps to take forward that will come in handy if they are made for this game. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has JD a very up and down career with Michigan State but he can end it on a good note if he is accurate with the ball and keeps mistakes to a minimum.

Wake Forest was hit with some tough injuries that kept them from fully reaching their ceiling, but an 8-4 regular season is still something to be proud of. The Demon Deacons have been led this season by a dynamic passing game. Passing production went down when leading receiver Sage Surratt went down and while quarterback Jamie Newman battled injuries, but it is still the strength of the team. Newman has thrown for 2,693 yards and 23 touchdowns this season and will play, but he is nursing a leg injury, so his mobility will be limited. Because of this, there will be more pressure on the offensive line, especially since Michigan State does quite well at getting after the quarterback. Running backs Cade Carney and Kenneth Walker III need to up their game as well in order to keep Michigan State balanced. It would also be beneficial if the Demon Deacons can get their receivers open quickly. Converted quarterback Kendall Hinton has really stepped up since Surratt went down and I expect him to continue to be Newman’s top target. On defense, I think the Demon Deacons should be primarily focused on defending the pass. Michigan State has a pair of talented receivers in Cody White and Darrell Stewart Jr. who will not be very easy to cover. If Amari Henderson and Essang Bassey can hold their own in coverage, I do not expect Michigan State to get much done offensively. Henderson also has four interceptions this season and could easily add to that total if he keeps tight with his assignment. I also expect defensive end Carlos Basham to create chaos in the backfield. Basham has 17 tackles for loss and nine sacks this season and I think he can exploit a faulty Michigan State offensive line. I think the Demon Deacons should try to get a good pass rush early and hopefully rattle Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke. I think if Wake Forest just forces Michigan State to slowly march down the field, they will not be able to do it.

Prediction:

Wake Forest wins an ugly game 27-16.

Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M

Betting Line: Texas A&M -6.5

Over/Under: 53.5

Oklahoma State did lose the Bedlam game to Oklahoma, but I think this was a solid season as they were bitten by the injury bug and still finished 8-4. The Cowboys have had some injuries offensively that have hurt them, but they were hit with some good news when it was revealed that quarterback Spencer Sanders will be back in action for this game after missing some time with a thumb injury. Sanders might be erratic at times, but he has a rocket for an arm and is a great athlete. In this game, Sanders needs to avoid forcing bad throws and go through his progressions well. Still, I expect Oklahoma State to rely mostly on running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard has a nation leading 1,936 rushing yards this season on a solid 6.3 yards per carry. While Hubbard might appear to just be a hulking power back like many players who put up those kind of numbers, he actually has some serious wheels and chose to bulk up for football as opposed to training to be an Olympic sprinter. If Hubbard plays well, Oklahoma State will be tough to stop. I think the Cowboys need to be ready to utilize play action as well with the threat of handing the ball to Hubbard being something that many teams fear. On the defensive side of the ball, I think that solid pass coverage really needs to be stressed. Texas A&M does not have a star in their receiving corps but they have quite a few solid possession receivers. Cornerbacks AJ Green and Rodarius Williams can not let Texas A&M’s receivers outmuscle them for contested catches and have to hang tough. Nickel back Kolby Harvell-Peel leads the team in interceptions and pass deflections and is also going to play a big role in pass coverage. A quarterback spy will also likely need to be employed on Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond who will move the chains with his legs if not accounted for. Linebacker Amen Ogbongbemiga is second on the team in tackles and first in tackles for loss and will likely be the spy. I think creating discomfort for Texas A&M’s passing game will be the biggest part of the game for the defense.

Texas A&M’s 7-5 record might feel a bit disappointing, but all of their losses were to top 10 teams and they have shown a lot of positive signs for next season. The Aggies are led on offense by quarterback Kellen Mond. Mond has his faults, but he comes up with big plays often and I think is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football. The problem that has plagued Mond for a lot of his career has been inconsistency and that has not totally gone away. Mond had a pretty rough day the Texas A&M’s last regular season game at LSU and he can not just have another rough day like that in this game if the Aggies want to come out on top. Mond mostly just needs to be accurate and be able to throw the ball into tight windows. Receivers Jhamon Ausbon, Quartney Davis, and Kendrick Rogers as well as tight end Jalen Wydermyer are all bigger receivers that do well at making contested grabs. If Mond can just get the ball in a tight window, I think his receivers can do the rest. Running back Isaiah Spiller has played pretty well down the stretch and will also be looked to to make some plays. Mond can not do everything for this offense and if the run game does not get anywhere, he has to. The run defense for the Aggies took a hit when defensive tackle Justin Madubuike elected to skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. While often facing double teams, Madubuike still leads the team in tackles for loss and sacks. This is especially concerning since Oklahoma State has one of the best running backs in the country in Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard leads the nation in rushing yards and is a consistent big play threat with the ball in his hands. Texas A&M needs to try and get into the backfield but also they need to be ready to catch him at the second level before he rips off a long run. Linebackers Anthony Hines and Buddy Johnson lead a solid group but this will be their toughest test against the run all season. Without Madubuike, the defensive line is going to take a hit, but they need to provide some resistance and make Hubbard work for his yards. Preventing big plays is what is most important. Against the pass, I think forcing Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders to make poor decisions will be the goal. Sanders often forces bad throws and does not go beyond his first read. Covering Dillon Stoner, Oklahoma State’s leading receivers who is healthy for the game, will create issues for Sanders. While the Aggies do not generate a lot of turnovers, this game will be a prime opportunity to do so.

Prediction:

Texas A&M overmatches their former Big 12 cohabitant and wins 31-24.

Holiday Bowl: USC vs Iowa

Betting Line: Iowa -2

Over/Under: 52

USC ended their up and down regular season on a high note when they tore apart rival UCLA’s defense in a 52-35 win. The Trojans won that game mainly due to an insane performance from true freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis. Hearing that a three-star true freshman is the starting quarterback might bring some concern from USC fans, but Slovis has really proved himself this season, throwing for 3,242 yards and 28 touchdowns while completing 72% of his passes. Slovis and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. have created a deadly combo and if they can both do well, USC’s passing attack will be a chore to stop. I think that the biggest thing Slovis has to worry about during this game will be evading pass rushers as USC’s offensive line has improved some from last season, but still leaves a bit to be desired. Slovis needs to be able to evade the pass rush well and get rid of the ball quickly. His offensive line can do him a huge favor by trying to contain Iowa defensive end AJ Epenesa. Epenesa is going to be a first round draft pick this April and will wreak havoc on USC if they are not careful. Offensive tackle Austin Jackson will be matched up with Epenesa often and will need to hold his own. The run game also needs to provide some contribution as the Trojans rank near the bottom of the FBS in rushing yards per game. Vavae Malepeai is USC’s lead back and will need to lead the charge. Defensively, the Trojans need to hold their own in coverage in what I think is an underrated group of receivers that Iowa has. Cornerbacks Olaijah Griffin and Isaac Taylor-Stuart can not overlook their assignments. Iowa has a bit of a thunder and lightning dynamic with two of their top receivers. As Ihmir Smith-Marsette is a speedster and deep threat and Brandon Smith is a bigger possession receiver. Tyrone Tracy also can not be ignored. Another key matchup in this game that USC needs to hold their own in is their defensive ends against Iowa’s elite offensive tackles. Drake Jackson has had a very strong showing during his freshman season but he and fellow defensive end Christian Rector will be facing a tough duo in Iowa offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Alaric Jackson. Wirfs will probably be a top 15 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft and Jackson will surely be hearing his name called as well. If Rector and Jackson can not put up a fight, the Trojans will have a very hard time getting a pass rush and defending outside runs.

Iowa capped off the regular season with a win over rival Nebraska to bring home the Freedom Trophy. The Hawkeyes finished off the regular season 9-3 and have a chance to hit 10 wins for the first time since 2015. The Hawkeyes this season have been built on a strong defense. Cornerbacks Matt Hankins and Michael Ojemudia have done well in pass coverage this season, but will face a tough target in USC receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and quarterback Kedon Slovis. If Hankins and Ojemudia can hold Pittman in check, it will take away USC’s top target and make things a bit tougher but USC still also has Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown who can make plays themselves. Iowa can make things tougher for USC if they also get a good pass rush. AJ Epenesa has not put up numbers that are quite as impressive as what he did last season, but I think it is mostly due to getting a lot more attention from opposing offensive lines and he tends to play well in big games. Fellow defensive end Chauncey Golston needs to also get a solid rush so that USC can not just work around Epenesa. On offense, the Hawkeyes should try to attack USC’s questionable secondary. Quarterback Nate Stanley has seen his number drop off a bit this season, but I think he is capable of playing well if he has a clean pocket and his receivers can give him a little help. Iowa has two solid players at the offensive tackle spots, but their interior offensive line needs to hold up their end of the bargain. Ihmir Smith-Marsette is the best athlete in Iowa’s group of receivers and if he can get open on a deep route, it will really turn the tide of the game. Redshirt freshman Tyrone Tracy has really improved as a receiving threat this season and will also be looked to often by Stanley this game. While I think they are better through the air, the Hawkeyes also need to try and keep their offense balanced and prevent teams from selling out to stop the pass. Someone in Iowa’s stable of running backs emerging will be quite beneficial.

Prediction:

Iowa tries to make it ugly, but USC wins a fun game 24-23.

Cheez-It Bowl: Air Force vs Washington State

Betting Line: Washington State +3

Over/Under: 67.5

Air Force finished off the regular season with a very impressive 10-2 record, and a win in this bowl game could give Air Force their highest win total since 1998. On offense, the Falcons have a bit more of a pro style look than their fellow service academies do, but they still pass the ball less than 10 times per game. Despite the lower passing attempts, quarterback Donald Hammond is not at all afraid of testing opposing defenses, averaging 13 yards per pass attempt. Hammond also brought home the title of Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year because of his command of the offense and consistently strong play. If Hammond can command the offense well and play smart, I think things will go well offensively for the Falcons. Receivers Geraud Sanders and Benjamin Waters have been big time contributors for Air Force as well and getting any kind of separation on their routes will be very beneficial. As always with their offense, the offensive line needs to be able to make the proper reads and all be on the same page. On defense, the Falcons will need to prepare for something much different than their own team. Cornerbacks Zane Lewis, Milton Bugg III, and Janes need to stay on their toes and not just be ready to move across the length of the field, bit the width as well. Air Force has not racked up a ton of interceptions this season, but should get a chance to do so against a quarterback that is prone to making poor reads. If the group of cornerbacks I previously mentioned can keep tight coverage, they will be halfway there. Safety help over the top will also be a key factor in creating a turnover. Air Force could also benefit greatly from getting a good pass rush. If defensive tackle Mosess Fifita can clog the middle, it will free up room for the defensive ends and outside linebackers to make their mark.

Washington State’s season might feel a bit disappointing when compared to last season, but it is hard to complain when the Cougars are in a bowl game for the fifth straight season, which is a program first. Like always, the Cougars are led by a strong passing game that utilizes the entire length and width of the field. Quarterback Anthony Gordon is not as good as Gardner Minshew was last season but he has put up similar if not better numbers with 5,228 passing yards and 45 touchdowns while completing 72% of his passes. Gordon is a tremendous arm talent but where he falls below Minshew is his ability to read a defense. Gordon has thrown 16 interceptions this season and tends to make some poor reads. If he can avoid throwing into double coverage or just missing on a pass completely, I think Washington State’s offense will be very tough to stop. That being said, he can not afford to turn the ball over often against a team like Air Force that is built around ball control. It is also not good that Brandon Arconado, Gordon’s top target, is questionable for the game with a wrist injury. If Arconado is unavailable, Kassidy Woods needs to fill in the spot well and Easop Winston and Dezmon Patmon need to emerge as the main pass catching threats. Running back Max Borghi plays a unique role in this offense in that he gets very few carries as a lead back since Washington State runs so little, but he serves a similar role that a tight end would play in that he is usually the main checkdown option or security blanket. He needs to fill that role well and be able to be a source of yardage for the offense that way. On defense, the Cougars need to prevent Air Force from dominating time of possession. I think doing that will entail creating negative plays and making stops on third down. Unfortunately, third down conversions and preventing negative plays are two things Air Force is very good at. The defense as a whole needs to be very disciplined and play their assignment well. Making an incorrect read or reacting too slowly could prove very costly. Linebackers Jahad Woods and Justus Rogers are two of the top playmakers on the defense and they need to play their assignments well. That being said, when Air Force does throw the ball, they are built on big plays, so the secondary needs to be ready.

Prediction:

Washington State wins a back and forth game 38-35.

Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame vs Iowa State

Betting Line: Iowa State +3.5

Over/Under: 54

Notre Dame is entering this game on a bit of a hot streak as the Fighting Irish really stepped up their game down the stretch, winning their last five games and finishing 10-2. A big reason for Notre Dame’s improvement down the stretch was the strong play of quarterback Ian Book. Book has improved his arm strength this season, but it still is not quite where fans would hope it to be. Where Book does do quite well is getting the ball in the hands of their strong receivers, consistently making good reads, and is also a tough runner as Notre Dame’s second leading rusher. The big task for Book this game will be to be able to throw into tight windows and give his receivers the best opportunity to come down with the catch. Chase Claypool is Book’s favorite target and he needs to do what he does best in this game and that is come down with contested catches and use his large catch radius to outmuscle cornerbacks for contested grabs. The same goes for tight end Cole Kmet, another of Book’s favorite targets who has a similar skill set. Running back Jafar Armstrong needs to be an impact player as well and not make it to where Book has to do everything. It should also be noted that Notre Dame has parted ways with offensive coordinator Chip Long, meaning quarterback coach Tommy Rees will be calling plays for the first time in his career. Rees is just 27 years old and was the starting quarterback for Notre Dame the last time they were in the National Championship game. Rees will need to fill in well and give the offense the best chance to succeed. On defense, the Fighting Irish likely need to employ a quarterback spy on Iowa State’s Brock Purdy who is quite effective as a dual threat. Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah plays the rover position, which is dedicated to spying the other team’s best player and he needs to do that job well. Purdy is a solid scrambler and preventing him from doing that will be a huge help for the offense. The secondary will also need to do well in coverage against Deshaunte Jones. Freshman safety Kyle Hamilton has been a very pleasant surprise on Notre Dame’s defense and I expect he will play a big role in coverage, but cornerbacks Troy Pride Jr. and Donte Vaughn need to hold their own as well. Iowa State also has a very good offensive line and getting some push against them will be a key task for Khalid Kareem and the defensive line. While they would obviously like to be getting into the backfield often, the big thing is just to at least make it an even match and not allow Iowa State to easily form lanes for their running backs.

Iowa State ended the regular season in slightly disappointing fashion as they lost to rival Kansas State in Farmageddon, but they still had a solid season in the grand scheme of things as this will be their third straight winning season under head coach Matt Campbell. On offense, quarterback Brock Purdy has had another strong showing, completing 66% of his passes for 3,760 yards and 27 touchdowns. I trust Purdy to be accurate through the air, but I think his receivers need to get some separation against a solid Notre Dame secondary. Deshaunte Jones is Purdy’s favorite target and I think the Cyclones should try to get him open on a deep route early to try and create a big play that will carry momentum. Tight end Charlie Kolar is another top target and he needs to be able to get open as well. Running back Breece Hall has really improved as the season has gone along and he also needs to have a good game. Doing so will keep Notre Dame’s defense balanced in their approach. On defense, the Cyclones need to hang tough in pass coverage as Notre Dame has quite a few solid possession receivers, the best of which being 6’5” Chase Claypool. Iowa State’s cornerbacks will be at a height disadvantage, but they can overcome that by playing tight to their man and breaking on the ball well. As I have suggested before with teams facing Notre Dame, I think Iowa State should press at the line and force Notre Dame to beat them deep. I do not think that Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book has the arm strength to do that. I think this aggressive play style could also rattle a first time play caller for Notre Dame in addition to their offense.

Prediction:

Notre Dame proves to be just too much for Iowa State and wins 31-24.

First Responders Bowl: WKU vs Western Michigan

Betting Line: Western Michigan +3.5

Over/Under: 54.5

After going 3-9 in 2018, WKU has really turned it around this season by going 8-4 in Tyson Helton’s first season and put a bow on the regular season by beating rival Middle Tennessee. Arkansas transfer Ty Storey leads the way on offense at quarterback as he has thrown for 2,209 yards while completing 70% of his passes while adding seven rushing touchdowns in his 10 games of action. For this game, I think Storey needs to be better at creating big plays through the air. I think he can do that effectively if he is also a threat as a scrambler and if he can have more time to throw and set his feet. This means pass protection will also be a key factor for the Hilltoppers. Running back Gaej Walker has often carried the ground game this season and he will need to keep up his play and prevent Western Michigan’s defense from selling out to defend the passing game. Defensively, the Hilltoppers need to slow down Western Michigan running back LeVante Bellamy, who is an elite home run threat and can take just about any ball he touches to the house. Defensive end DeAngelo Malone is the top playmaker on WKU’s defense with 20.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks. If Malone can get into the backfield often, that could really throw a wretch into Western Michigan’s offense. While Malone can make some plays in the backfield, the biggest way to prevent big plays is having solid play at linebacker. Linebackers Malik Staples and Kyle Bailey need to get off their blocks quick and pursue the ball quickly. Malone and fellow defensive end Juwan Jones need to contain the outside and prevent big plays on a sweep or outside run.

Western Michigan finished .500 or better for the sixth straight season as they finished the regular season 7-5. On offense, the Broncos are led by a great playmaker in running back LeVante Bellamy. Bellamy has racked up 1,412 rushing yards this season and a nation leading 23 rushing touchdowns. If the Broncos can get Bellamy going again, they will be in a pretty good spot offensively. Western Michigan’s offensive line also needs to help pave the way for Bellamy and give him space to run through. WKU defensive end DeAngelo Malone ranks near the top of the country in tackles for loss and the Broncos need to contain him. Offensive tackles Jaylon Moore and Spencer Kanz need to hold their own and prevent Malone from creating too many big plays. Quarterback Jon Wassink also needs to do enough to keep WKU on their toes defensively. Wassink has solid yardage numbers, but only completes about 59% of his attempts. That number needs to improve this game if they want to be effective through the air. I also expect Western Michigan to utilize play action often and I think it should work well if run convincingly. Defensively, the Broncos need to get a good pass rush and do well in coverage. WKU receivers Lucky Jackson and Jahcour Pearson are on the receiving end of most of WKU’s passing yards and cornerbacks Patrick Lupro and Anton Curtis need to hold their own and not get burned. I also expect safety AJ Thomas to provide help as well and he should be effective as he leads the team in pass deflections. Linebacker Treshaun Hayward also needs to good game as he is the clear leader of the defense. Hayward leads the team with 132 tackles and has 11 tackles for loss as well. If Hayward plays well, the defense will be elevated quite a bit.

Prediction:

Western Michigan pulls the upset and brings home a 27-24 win.

Redbox Bowl: Cal vs Illinois

Betting Line: Illinois +6.5

Over/Under: 43

Cal finished their very up and down season with a 28-18 win over in state rival UCLA. The Golden Bears went 7-5 this season but were 6-0 when quarterback Chase Garbers played the whole game. While Garbers is no elite quarterback, he plays his role well as he does not make many mistakes and can be a consistent source of yardage for the offense. In this game, Garbers needs to be more accurate with the ball, and come up big on third down or any obvious passing down. Receivers Nikko Remigio and Trevon Clark need to also have good games and try to create separation from Illinois’s cornerbacks. Cal’s offensive line also needs to play better than they have recently. The Golden Bears are among the worst of the Power Five when it comes to preventing sacks and tackles for loss, and they need to give Garbers time to throw and allow the run game to develop. Running back Christopher Brown needs to fight through tackles well and have solid field vision to keep the run game moving as well. On defense, the Golden Bears should be able to feast on a faulty Illinois offensive line. Linebacker Evan Weaver is one of the best in the country at his position and leads the country in tackles with 172. Weaver and Kuony Deng make up an elite group of linebackers and I expect them to make plays again in this game. The secondary took a hit when safety Ashtyn Davis announced that he will sit out this game to train for the NFL Draft. Fellow safety Jaylinn Hawkins will need to pick up the slack in Davis’s absence. Cal will also need to play well in coverage against Illinois tight end Josh Imatorbhebhe who is their leading receiver. Hawkins and Daniel Scott will be the two people often assigned to cover him and need to do well as that will turn Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters away from his favorite target.

Illinois might have lost their regular season finale, but they completed the drive for six and are in a bowl game for the first time since 2014. The Fighting Illini are led by a solid defense that creates a lot of turnovers. Linebacker Dele Harding has racked up an impressive 143 tackles and leads the team with 12.5 tackles for loss. The defense is also predicated in big plays in addition to turnovers as they have five players with at least eight tackles for loss. The Fighting Illini should be able to get a good pass rush against a Cal offensive line that can at times resemble a revolving door. Defensive end Oluwole Betiku leads the team in sacks and will look to make an impact in the pass rush. I think getting a good pass rush will create a lot of chaos that I do not think Cal can do well in. Creating turnovers will also be a key for Illinois as it can give their offense more opportunities. Harding and safety Sydney Brown lead the team in interceptions and any interceptions from them will be huge. On offense, the Fighting Illini need to get the ball out quickly against a strong pass rush from Cal. Quarterback Brandon Peters will face a tough test in this game, but he has done well in big games before. Tight end Josh Imatorbhebhe is a freak athlete and getting the ball in his hands will usually yield great results. If Imatorbhebhe can get open or come down with contested catches and if Peters can get the ball to him, big plays should come. Running back Reggie Corbin also needs to make an impact and be able to fight through would be tacklers and not go down easy. Corbin should expect to be swarmed, but he can not let that phase him.

Prediction:

Cal comes out on top 20-13 in an ugly game.

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs Louisville

Betting Line: Louisville +4.5

Over/Under: 63.5

Mississippi State capped off the regular season in what was an anticipated rebuilding year by securing bowl eligibility and beating rival Ole Miss. The Bulldogs lost a lot of star power from last season on defense, and took a hit for this game when cornerback Cameron Dantzler announced that he will sit out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. This will likely leave freshman Martin Emerson with the task of covering Chatarius Atwell, Louisville’s leading receiver. Emerson needs to be able to hold his own and keep Atwell from getting open on a consistent basis. If Mississippi State can improve their pass defense, it will be huge when it comes to slowing down Louisville. Slowing down Louisville running back Javian Hawkins will also be important as Hawkins has 1,420 rushing yards on six yards per carry this season. Linebackers Willie Gay Jr., Erroll Thompson, and Leo Lewis need to be able to prevent long runs, and the defensive line needs to get a push against Louisville’s offensive line. On offense, running back Kylin Hill needs to have a good day. Hill has 1,347 rushing yards this season and is a very tough and physical runner. If Hill can be a consistent source of yardage for the offense, it can take the heat off of quarterback Tommy Stevens who is dealing with what is just being described right now as an upper body injury. If Stevens can be given time to throw and if he can find Osirus Mitchell, the passing game should be alright. Mitchell stands 6’5” and is going to be relied upon to come down with contested balls often. If Mitchell can outmuscle defenders for contested catches, it will make things much easier for Stevens.

Louisville’s turnaround this season under first year head coach Scott Satterfield has been one of the best stories in college football this season. In 2018, the Cardinals went 2-10 and lost six games by over 30 points. This season, they turned things around by going 7-5 and were competitive in many of their losses. On offense, the Cardinals are led by running back Javian Hawkins. Hawkins has 1,420 rushing yards this season on six yards per carry. Hawkins will have a bit less help in run blocking as left tackle Mekhi Becton will sit out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Becton is Louisville’s top offensive lineman and probably the best player on the team. Losing him will make things tougher for the run game but I still think Hawkins can have a good day if the rest of the offensive line brings up their play. Quarterback Micale Cunningham has had a solid season and if he can be accurate with his throws and set his feet, the offense can reach another gear. On defense, the Cardinals should focus on slowing down Mississippi State running back Kylin Hill. Hill often carries Mississippi State’s offense and containing him will be huge. Defensive ends Amonte Caban and Tabarius Peterson need to make plays as do outside linebackers Rodjay Burns and Yasir Abdullah. Hill is a tough runner and making plays against him will be key. Generating tackles for loss or sacks and forcing Mississippi State to rely on a faulty passing game will do good things for the Cardinals.

Prediction:

Louisville puts a cherry on this impressive season with a 28-24 win.

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