Loser.

Loser.

Despite her unpopularity at large, Alaska Republicans want Sarah Palin to be their U.S. Senate nominee next year. If they get their wish, Mark Begich should escape his meager approval ratings and cruise to re-election in a deep red state. And the GOP will have choked in yet another prime pickup opportunity three cycles in a row. In the primary, Palin tops establishment favorite, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, 36-26, with Dan Sullivan back at 15% and 2010 nominee Joe Miller at 12%.

I'm one thousand percent sure Sarah Palin won't run for U.S. Senate in Alaska despite her best efforts at convincing people that she's seriously considering it, but in the two percent chance that I'm wrong (yes, that's Palin-math), here's some good-bad news for her from Public Policy Polling ( PDF ):So on the one hand, Palin has a double-digit lead for the Republican nomination over what would be her rivals, if she ran. On the other hand, she's barely got more than one-third of the GOP vote. That's really amazing, if you think about it, given that she was once the Republican governor of Alaska and in 2008 was the GOP's vice presidential nominee. Heck, even Joe Lieberman got more than 36 percent when he lost to Ned Lamont.

Further underscoring her unpopularity in her home state, if Palin were to win the nomination, she'd trail Begich by a 52-40 margin. On the "bright" side (yes, that's sarcasm), 41 percent of Alaska voters think it would more appropriate for Palin to run for Senate in Alaska than in Arizona, while "just" 37 percent think she should run in Arizona instead of Alaska.

Begich also leads Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, but by a smaller 44-40 margin.

The poll was conducted from July 25-28 with 507 Alaska Republican voters and 890 Alaska voters from all parties. The margin of error for the GOP primary survey was ±4.4 percent and ±3.3 percent for the entire sample.