TRUMP TELLS MAUREEN WHAT’S NEXT FOR HRC -- NEW BATTLEGROUND: Donald could storm Rust Belt – NEXT TUESDAY’S SWAT: ‘Trump or Cruz sweep would linger in the media longer than any prior primaries’ Presented by

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

NEW YORKER COVER, Barry Blitt’s “The Big Short” (Trump’s hand) – Mina Kaneko and Françoise Mouly: “‘The practice of palmistry has never really established itself as anything more than a pseudo-science,’ the artist Barry Blitt says of ‘The Big Short,’ his cover for the March 28th issue.” See the cover. http://bit.ly/1puPdi7

Good Palm Sunday morning and welcome to spring, which sprang at 12:30 a.m.

GAME THEORY – “Is Cruz already too late to stop Trump? Arizona's primary is Tuesday, but more than half the ballots have already been cast — including for candidates who've left the race,” By Shane Goldmacher: “The outcome in Arizona is critical, not just for its bounty of delegates but for its ability to reset the tenor and trajectory of the Republican nominating contest for almost a month. Arizona and Utah, where Cruz appears favored, vote on Tuesday but the Republican race slows to a crawl after that, with only a single other state voting in the following four weeks.

“That means either a Trump or Cruz sweep would linger in the media longer than any prior primaries. Underscoring the urgency, Trump held rallies in the state's two largest cities on Saturday, as he, like Cruz, turns his attention to the state late. Public polling in Arizona has been scant, though Trump led Cruz by double digits in the two public surveys released this month.” http://politi.co/1VqqMPp

UPSHOT’s NATE COHEN, “How Donald Trump Can Fall Short of His Delegate Target”: “If he keeps winning at the pace he has so far, he will probably take around 60 percent of the remaining 900 or so pledged delegates, reaching his target. But Mr. Trump’s path is deceptively tenuous, and it might not take much to knock him off. It all hangs on whether Mr. Trump can continue to fend off Ted Cruz in states where Mr. Trump is relatively weak. ...

“The voting patterns and demographics of the remaining states look pretty good for him. He has an added advantage in that the delegate rules over the second half of the primary season make it easier for him to earn lopsided delegate tallies in many states. Mr. Trump is a strong favorite in the remaining primaries in the East and Appalachia ... Trump has generally struggled in the Plains States and farther West ...

“It would not take too many additional gains for Mr. Cruz to turn key states into tossups, or even to win them. ... [I]f Mr. Cruz picks up the preponderance of even the small segment of voters Mr. Rubio was winning, it could be enough to start flipping a few close contests.” http://nyti.ms/1UI74hj

--SMALL TYPO in that headline. Love Nate, who has had a breakout cycle. And what his head and heart gotta be telling him is: “Why Donald Trump Will Prob’ly Reach His Delegate Target.”

COLUMN OF THE DAY (week, month) – MAUREEN DOWD on p. 11 of Sunday Review, “Will Trump Be Dumped? Donald’s already warrin’ with Warren”: “‘We need strength in this country,’ he told me Friday morning, speaking from his Fifth Avenue office. ‘We have weak leadership. Hillary is pathetically weak.’ ... Trump said that when the ‘agitators’ scream and the crowd screams back, ‘Frankly, it adds a little excitement.’ ...

“He said he would soon unleash the moniker that he thought would diminish Hillary, the way ‘Little Marco’ and ‘Lyin’ Ted’ torched his Republican rivals; ‘I want to get rid of the leftovers first.’ ... [He gloated] about how his tweets to his seven million followers, sometimes penned in his jammies, become cable news bulletins. ‘Yeah,’ he said, ‘I’ll do them sometimes lying in bed.’ Not exactly a fireside chat. But it sure started a fire.” http://nyti.ms/22qrX6G

WORTH THE CLICK: Politico Magazine, “Optics: Two Weeks in Trump Nation -- Photographer Scott Mahaskey traveled the country with the passionate, fed-up supporters of The Donald”: “Their signs might say it all: ‘The Silent Majority Stands with Trump.’ Trump events are electrified by the feeling that these people, too—many white, working- and middle-class—can be marginalized, and they’re tired of the muzzling effect of political correctness that keeps them from saying so.” http://politi.co/1Vqk4sB

THE GREAT MENTIONER -- N.Y. TIMES A1, at fold, “Facing Long Odds, G.O.P. Leaders Map Strategy to Derail Trump,” by Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin: “Among the recruits under discussion are Tom Coburn, a former Oklahoma senator who has told associates that he would be open to running, and Rick Perry, the former Texas governor who was suggested as a possible third-party candidate at a meeting of conservative activists on Thursday in Washington. ...

“Trump has a delegate lead of about 250 over Mr. Cruz, ... but he has repeatedly acted in ways that push party leaders farther from his camp. On Thursday, House Speaker Paul D. Ryan sternly admonished him for saying his supporters would riot if Republicans nominated someone else, the latest in a series of remarks Mr. Trump has made that seemed to encourage or condone violence.” http://nyti.ms/1R9qY2m

A message from Google: A jobs program to help support economic recovery. Google is launching a new suite of Google Career Certificates in Data Analytics, Project Management, and User Experience (UX) Design. Designed and taught by Google employees, these certificates can help job seekers forge paths to high-growth careers. Learn more.

WASHINGTON, INC. -- Burson-Marsteller won PRWeek’s Crisis or Issues Management Campaign of the Year for its work with Texas Health Resources, the Dallas hospital where Ebola had been detected. http://bit.ly/1RVrcIb

--“Revolution Messaging helps drive Sanders’ ‘political revolution,’” by USA Today’s Nicole Gaudiano: “Sanders hired D.C.-based Revolution Messaging to run online fundraising and manage the campaign’s digital advertising, branding, video creation, website development, texts to supporters and online store. The boutique 60-employee firm, led by veterans of President Obama’s 2008 campaign, would seem the perfect fit for Sanders. They don’t work for Republicans, ‘evil corporations that do harm’ or dictators, and there are a lot of democratic socialists on staff.” http://usat.ly/1R6WXQE

DAN PFEIFFER and JON FAVREAU’s new podcast on Bill Simmons’ Podcast network (The Ringer). Dan emails us: “We taped our first one [Friday] talking Trump and the media, Super Tuesday 3; the fall of Rubio, and Clinton v. Trump. We are also soliciting names for our podcast, which people can tweet at us at @danpfeiffer and @jonfavs.” Inaugural episode http://bit.ly/1Uq1H7F

SPOTTED: Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) in The Loft at The Hamilton last night with the Shartel & Hume cover band playing

GAME CHANGE – DAN BALZ, WashPost 1-col. lead, “Rust Belt may decide election: TRUMP VS. CLINTON COULD CHANGE MAP -- Matchup might heighten racial, other divides” (online: “How Trump vs. Clinton could reshape the electoral map”): “Among the 18 states that have been in Democratic hands since the 1992 election are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Along with Ohio and Iowa, those heartland states are likely to be the most intensely contested battlegrounds in the country if a Trump-Clinton race materializes.

“All those states have higher concentrations of white voters, including larger percentages of older, white working-class voters, than many of the states in faster-growing areas that Obama looked to in his two campaigns. ‘If he drives big turnout increases with white voters, especially with white male voters, that has the potential to change the map,’ said a veteran of Obama’s campaigns. ...

“[Steve Schmidt:] ‘To be successful as a Republican candidate you have to be the equivalent of a neutron bomb ... He’s a neutron bomb. Donald Trump has been disruptive in the way Uber has been disruptive in the taxi industry.’ ...

“Ohio, Florida and likely Virginia in particular will be fought over until the very end of the election. ... Nevada, New Mexico and possibly Colorado could see less competition unless Trump can overcome his extraordinarily high negative ratings within the Hispanic community.” http://wapo.st/22vWixl

--DAVID MARANISS and Robert Samuels on WP A1, “Awaiting an awakening: In Las Vegas and across the nation in S.C., people wonder if the American Dream is still attainable” -- Part 3 of “Looking for America”: “Their generation was promised a new type of politics that they believe never fully came. Most were tweens and teenagers when Obama won and remember their parents and teachers crying at that unlikely moment. ...

“[T]hey did not expect to come of age at a time when perceived injustice would lead to looting in Ferguson, Mo., and rioting in Baltimore, and a Republican front-runner singling out Mexican immigrants as ‘rapists.’” http://wapo.st/1RsPQ8t

UNDERSTANDING TRUMP – L.A. Times 2-col. lead, “Tea party is also torn over Trump: Anti-establishment fervor draws members to him, eroding the voting bloc’s power,” by Lisa Mascaro in D.C. (online: “Trump’s campaign might break apart the tea part”: “The tea party was always somewhat of a marriage of convenience between Washington’s free-market powerhouses and frustrated ordinary Americans.” http://lat.ms/1pUw9dK

--Also on L.A. Times A1, columnist STEVE LOPEZ, reporting from Fountain Hills, Ariz., “The circus rolls in, and a hate train follows” (online: “Trump circus rolls into Phoenix in a taste of what's in store for California” – June 7 primary): “[T]he angry masses have chosen as their spear carrier one of the richest men in the world, and his rise began with an assault on some of the poorest. ... Outside of the protesters, you could have taken all the people of color at the Cruz and Trump rallies and fit them onto a turnip truck. This figures to be a problem for whichever one wins the GOP nomination.” http://lat.ms/1T2W26k

MICHAEL GOODWIN on N.Y. Post cover (one-eighth of page), “Why I can support Donald Trump,” with column on p. 13, “Why it’s time for a Trump revolution”: “[M]uch of the contempt for Trump reflects contempt for his working-class white support. ... Nobody speaks for them ... Trump alone is bringing many of these forgotten Americans into the political system, much as Obama did with millennials and black voters. Trump has done it with full-frontal attacks on lopsided trade deals and a broken immigration system. His message is a potent brew of populism and nationalism that reaches across the partisan divide ...

“The shame is that others didn’t beat him to it. ... [T]ens of millions of dollars are being poured into attack ads against Trump, and the urgent blue-nosed concerns about dark pools of money in politics have vanished. As long as he’s the target, all is fair. Often, the avalanche of sludge against Trump looks and sounds like a reactionary confederacy fighting to keep its power and privileges. ...

“I would be delighted to support a more conventional candidate who has Trump’s courage and appeal, but we don’t always get to pick our revolutionaries. And make no mistake, Donald Trump is leading a political revolution that is long overdue.” http://nyp.st/22qpgSG ... Post cover http://nyp.st/25cVz6x

MARCH MADNESS: N.Y. Post Sports back, “KENTUCKY FRIED! Wildcats ousted by Hoosiers in blue-blood battle [Indiana 73, Kentucky 67, putting Indiana in Sweet 16 for third time in five seasons] ... Kansas, Carolina roll in to Sweet 16.” Post back cover http://nyp.st/25cVz6x

BIRTHWEEK (was Fri.): Karen Knutson, formerly Lisa Murkowski’s chief, now with GE (h/t Katie Packer Gage)

BIRTHDAYS: Story Partners’ Gloria Dittus, the pride of Augusta, Ga. ... Washingtonian president and publisher Cathy Merrill Williams ... Spike Lee is 59 ... the mythical, magical Michael Whouley of Dewey Square Group, an alum of Clinton-Gore, Kerry and DNC … Jon Thompson, RGA comms. director, an NRCC and RNC alum, and a native tar heel … Ed Rollins, senior advisor at Teneo Strategy … Julie Townsend of ABC (h/t Jim Rutenberg) ... MSNBC’s Benjy Sarlin, a TPM alum … WaPo’s Phil Rucker, who studied history at Yale and is the pride of Savannah, is 32 ... Kramer Phillips, founder and president of KPR Media and an avid collector of political memorabilia and compulsive kitchen gadget buyer ... Robert Middaugh, DOE/NNSA alum … Will Marty, the Pride of Tullahoma ...

... Sally Aman … Gordon Hamel, progressive and human rights activist ... Jessica Carter, chief of staff to Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Tenn.) (hubby tip: Brad Woodhouse) ... Jason Lifton … Commerce alum Dan Brundage ... attorney Famid Rahman Sinha, Obama campaign and HASC alum ... Brian Walton, managing director at Blueprint Communications and an RNC alum, is 37 ... Jonathan Godfrey, VP for public affairs at ACT - The App Association ... Jay Heimbach, ONE’s senior director of U.S. gov’t relations and a U2 fanatic, is 47 … Tunisia turns 60 on its Independence Day (h/t @BCIU) ... CBS News alum Susan McGinnis ... Levar Stoney, Secretary of the Commonwealth of Virginia and a McAuliffe alum ...

... Matt Finkelstein, senior writer and research director at West Wing Writers and an American Bridge alum … Emily Stocks … Donald Patterson … James Scott ... Lauren Wadell ... Emily Stocks ... John Graves ... Marilyn Zagnoli ... Scott Heaslet ... Gloria Totten ... Otis DeWeese ... Mark Putnam (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Carl Reiner is 94 ... actor Hal Linden is 85 ... former Canadian prime minister Brian Mulroney is 77 ... producer Paul Junger Witt is 75 ... William Hurt is 66 ... Carl Palmer (Emerson, Lake and Palmer) is 66 ... Holly Hunter is 58 ... Kathy Ireland is 53 ... Ruby Rose (TV: “Orange is the New Black”) is 30 (h/ts AP)



SUBSCRIBE to the Playbook family: POLITICO Playbook http://politi.co/1M75UbX ... New York Playbook http://politi.co/1ON8bqW ... Florida Playbook http://politi.co/1JDm23W ... New Jersey Playbook http://politi.co/1HLKltF ... Massachusetts Playbook http://politi.co/1Nhtq5v ... Illinois Playbook http://politi.co/1N7u5sb ... California Playbook http://politi.co/1N8zdJU ... Brussels Playbook http://politi.co/1FZeLcw

Follow us on Twitter Anna Palmer @apalmerdc



Jake Sherman @JakeSherman