The Evolution of Obama’s Iran Policy

During his 2008 presidential campaign, Barack Obama advocated diplomacy over coercion to resolve the Iranian nuclear threat, pledging to open the lines of communication and work to reinstate trust between Washington and Tehran. Barely having time to file for a change of address to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, newly sworn-in President Obama’s Iran policy was challenged by events in the Persian Gulf. Despite initial friendly rhetoric and gestures toward Iran’s government, Obama’s Iran policy shifted during the first months of his presidency.

Iran’s Green Movement erupted as a result of the country’s disputed June 2009 presidential election. Seeking social reforms and regime change, the Iranian grassroots initiative did not receive official support from the U.S. Government. Although a proponent of democratic reforms, President Obama validated his inaction on the grounds that American assistance and/or support could cause more harm than good. With an America-Iran history polluted with unwanted American interference, President Obama feared intervention would delegitimize the Iranian movement.

While President Obama’s non-commitment to Iranians in the summer of 2009 is a source of displeasure among some, the logic behind his decision is valid. Despite continued rhetoric favoring diplomacy and open communication between the two governments, President Obama altered his Iran policy after the peoples’ peaceful initiative was brutally suppressed by the Iranian government.

Unsuccessful attempts to negotiate, combined with Iran’s disregard for human rights, paved the way for the Obama administration’s implementation of new sanctions against Iran. Passed by the United States Congress in June 2010 and signed into law by President Obama in July 2010, the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act, in part, expanded preexisting sanctions on Iran’s energy-related activities. September 2010 sanctions blocked assets of Iranian government officials, members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and others accused of human rights abuses by the United States. Finally, Executive Orders in May and November 2011 implemented additional restrictions to further punish Iran’s government and strangle the country’s economy.

Ultimately, extensive unilateral and international sanctions were unsuccessful. Despite ineffective sanctions, the prospect of diplomacy to yield change reemerged in early 2012 when the United States along with other global powers announced renewed negotiations with Iran. With negotiations at a standstill after three rounds of talks, threats associated with Iran’s nuclear program increased with Israel alluding to a potential unilateral preemptive strike against Iran. The effects of an Israeli attack would have worldwide ramifications, especially for the United States, Israel’s greatest ally. President Obama needed to find a way to quell American security concerns and calm the Israelis without completely closing the door on effective diplomacy with Iranian leadership.

Nearing the end of his first term in office, sanctions and diplomatic efforts have been at the forefront of Obama’s Iran policy. Arguably, neither has curtailed Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Just shy of four months until Election Day, the Obama administration is again shifting its Iran policy to satisfy the security concerns of all involved parties, while attempting to keep diplomatic efforts on life support.

Obama approving military actions against Iran was unthinkable when the wide-eyed, idealist president entered the Oval Office in 2009. Recently, President Obama has stated that no option is off the table in dealing with Iran, including military action. Obama has been unable to diplomatically triumph, and with recent events, it is uncertain for how long he will be able to balance diplomacy and the threat of force toward Iran.

Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, a primary shipping channel for roughly one-fifth of the crude oil traded worldwide, prompted the United States to mobilize American military. In early July, the United States stationed military in the Persian Gulf to deter Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. American military in the Persian Gulf combined with increased fighter jets in the region aim to secure the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while increasing the United States’ deep-strike capability. While asserting its strength and readiness, America’s recent military positioning also aims to temper Israel’s inclination to preemptively strike Iran. Despite increasing its military presence, President Obama has not issued military action against Iran, and it remains unclear under what circumstance he would.

Obama’s Iran policy has undoubtedly evolved from his 2008 idealist campaign platform. Although Obama maintains diplomatic tendencies, favoring negotiations over military action, the past four years have arguably taught him that good policy can fail due to the uncertainty of the human factor. Consequently, his policy alterations, from diplomacy to sanctions and now to military maneuvers, can be chalked up to a still idealistic president navigating the uncertain waters of foreign policy.