Former U.S. enemy in Iraq is now potential ally against Iran

Jim Michaels | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption Iraqi Cleric al-Sadr Votes On Election Day Influential Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr on Saturday cast his vote in the first national election since the declaration of victory over the Islamic State group (IS). (May 12)

A fiery Shiite cleric whose followers once mounted deadly uprisings against U.S. forces in Iraq is emerging as America’s best hope of blunting Iran's expanding influence in Iraq.

The victory of Muqtada al-Sadr’s party in recent parliamentary elections took U.S. officials by surprise and prompted a re-examination of U.S. policy in the country, where more than 5,000 American military advisers helped defeat the Islamic State.

“He can be irrational, but he is better than the Iranians taking over,” James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, said of Sadr.

Sadr is engaged in delicate political negotiations with other factions, and the outcome of those talks, which could take months, will determine the future of American influence in Iraq.

An organization with close ties to Iran came in second in voting this month. The political organization of the current U.S.-backed prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, came in third.

The U.S. has said it would want to remain in Iraq if the government wanted advisers to continue training the country’s armed forces. It is not clear how a new government will view the presence of American military advisers.

American officials say they don’t expect relations with Iraq to change. “We have a good relationship with the government of Iraq, and we believe that we will continue to (have) that,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said.

“It’s in our interest to stay the course,” said Michael Barbero, a retired Army lieutenant general who served three tours in Iraq.

Unlike other Shiite clerics and politicians in Iraq, Sadr has distanced himself from Iran and positioned himself as a strong nationalist. Iranian-backed militias, which helped defeat the Islamic State, also called ISIS, are still powerful forces in Iraq.

“Assuming ISIS doesn’t come back the only real question in Iraq is will Iran slowly but surely dominate the country,” Jeffrey said.

More: Early results in Iraq election favor populist cleric al-Sadr

More: Now that ISIS is mostly defeated, will U.S. stay in Iraq?

Sadr’s political organization fell short of a majority and will need to form a coalition with other political parties in Iraq.

Jeffrey said he is concerned that political parties may form a “grand coalition,” allowing Iranian-backed groups into the government where they could control powerful ministries.

But it’s also possible that Abadi could remain as prime minister if Sadr’s organization forms an alliance with his political party and other parties not aligned with Iran. “Abadi still has a chance,” said Lukman Faily, a former Iraqi ambassador to the United States.

Sadr did not include his own name on the list, so he will not serve as prime minister. “He always wanted to be the king maker — not the king,” Faily said.

U.S. officials worry Iranian dominance in Iraq could alienate Sunnis, who are a minority in Iraq but dominated politics in the country until the 2003 overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

Politically disenfranchised Sunnis were a key reason the Islamic State was able to take over large swaths of Iraq in 2014. Many Sunnis viewed the terror group as a bulwark against a Shiite-dominated government.

But Sadr is an odd ally for the United States. Sadr’s supporters led deadly uprisings against American forces in Iraq — in 2004 in Najaf, a Shiite holy place in southern Iraq, and years later in Sadr City, a Shiite slum in Baghdad.

In 2004, the top coalition commander, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, said the mission of U.S. forces was to kill or capture Sadr.

Sadr is the son of a revered Shiite religious leader and has a strong following, particularly among the working class and poor Shiites. He broadened that appeal during parliamentary elections, pushing a strong nationalist and anti-corruption message. His political supporters were effective in getting their message out.

“His nationalist appeal came from the grassroots level — not a top-down public relations campaign that Iraqis are used to seeing from their political leaders,” said Sterling Jensen, an assistant professor at the United Arab Emirates' National Defense College in Abu Dhabi.

Abadi was credited with helping to defeat the Islamic State, but Sadr’s anti-corruption message resonated more among voters now that the threat from the terror group has receded.

“People are yearning for reform,” Faily said. “Muqtada was more in touch with people and what they wanted.”