The phrase 'It ain't over till it's over' is one coined by Yogi Berra, a famous American baseball player and manager. His team, the NY Mets, were far behind in 1973 when, as manager, he said these words and his team eventually rallied to win the division.

Well, the EU referendum season still has a long way to go and our weekly tracking poll, which asks the question, Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU?, continues to show a strong expectation for Brexit (see latest results below). This is in contrast to public polls, which have generally shown the Remain camp in the lead although two recent ones had the Leave side in front by a slim margin.

Meanwhile, we continue to ask our survey participants for their thoughts on why there is such a disparity between our poll and public polls. The responses are quite revealing and while most are from those in favour of Brexit, there are contrasting views as expressed below:

Most everyone I talk to is shifting to remain, mostly because not one foreign leader, serious economist, or international businessman is in favour when discussing the issue of Brexit

On the other side, there were two responses that caught my attention as each could have been entitled, 'It ain't over till it's over'

The feeling is that the Remain has shown its mighty powerful establishment hand far too early…They can’t roll out the US PRESIDENT again, the IMF, the G7, the G20, NATO....it has all been too soon and too obvious…

…BREXIT can now rope a dope for a couple of weeks and then HMRC have been forced to release real immigration numbers from THE EU.

The figures will double the 330,000 claimed net figure for last year…and then BREXIT can prove being lied to by a strange controlling global club, of which the EU is a sub part.

The reason why I think the UK will vote to leave is twofold:

1 The vote to leave group are more likely to turn out to vote.

2 The stay in campaign have come out early with strong economic arguments, I believe these arguments will become diluted and challenged throughout the campaign. Immigration (cheap competitive labour) and anti-globalisation could play strongly in favour of Brexit.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Brexit Poll Results:

Brexit = vote to leave the EU

No Brexit = vote to stay in the EU

Overall Results: Poll Expectations for a Brexit outcome remain very high

Overall Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16 Brexit 58% 85% 85% 86% 87% 88% 85% No Brexit 42% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12% 15% Apr 23 Apr 30 85% 84% 15% 16%

Past Week: Expectation for Brexit remnain high from UK respondents

UK Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16 Brexit 83% 91% 90% 84% 92% 94% 89% Non-Brexit 17% 9% 10% 16% 8% 6% 11% Apr 23 Apr 30 Brexit 88% 87% No-Brexit 12% 13%

Past week: Non-UK expectations for Brexit remain high but with a smaller sample

Non-UK Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16 Brexit 12% 53% 58% 70% 74% 81% 87% No Brexit 78% 47% 42% 30% 26% 19% 13% Apr 23 Apr 30 Brexit 77% 81% No Brexit 23% 19%

Breakdown of Total UK vs Non-UK rotespondents in our poll

Total # Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16 UK 32% 88% 85% 90% 89% 89 88% Non-UK 88% 12% 15% 10% 11% 11% 12% Apr 23 Apr30 UK 88% 88% Non-UK 12% 12%

.We have been asked whether we have a bias and the answer remains no. We only report the results. However, the vast majority of those responding in our poll continue to expect Brexit. This may account for the disparity with public polls as those participating continue to show a strong inclination to voice their opinion via our poll and comments sent to me. We welcome feedback from both sides, including those who favor Remain.

Sterling, meanwhile, put in a strong week although some of its gains may have been attributed to a generally weaker dollar. As I have been noting, sterling appears to be acting as a barometer of Brexit sentiment, which will likely increase as an indicator the closer it gets to the June 23 referendum.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Jay Meisler, founder

Global Traders Association

jay@tradersadvocate.com

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.