

Julia Gillard is ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred PM for the first time since February: she has risen three points to 46 per cent while Mr Abbott has fallen three to 45 per cent. Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott are tied on both personal approval and disapproval. The PM's approval was up two points to 39 per cent; her disapproval down one point to 57 per cent. This is Ms Gillard's highest approval and lowest disapproval since February. The Opposition Leader's approval was steady at 39 per cent, continuing to equal his personal record low, while his disapproval rose a point to 57 per cent. The poll of 1400 was taken from Thursday to Saturday, in a week when Ms Gillard faced questions about her conduct as a solicitor with Slater & Gordon, and Mr Abbott came under fire over his comments on education and whether Labor taxes had a role in the delay of BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam project. Labor's two-party vote is the best since late February when the Coalition was ahead 53 to 47 per cent.

Labor's primary vote has risen steadily over the past three months, increasing a statistically significant six points from 26 per cent to 32 per cent. The Coalition's primary vote has fallen four points since early May to 45 per cent. The poll will give further heart to the government, and provide some weight to Ms Gillard's claim that the worst is over now that the carbon tax is in and Labor can get on to its positive agenda. In the poll, two-thirds of Australians (67 per cent) backed the decision to process asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island, with only 27 per cent against. The move has majority approval from both Labor and Coalition voters, while a majority of Green voters oppose it. There is an even split, however, over the government's plan to increase the refugee intake from 13,750 to 20,000: with 48 per cent in favour and 49 per cent opposed. There has been little change in the public's view of the carbon tax, with 54 per cent (up two points) saying it was making no difference to them, while 40 per cent (up two points) said they were worse off. In late June, just before the tax started, 51 per cent expected to be worse off. Nearly seven in 10 Labor voters say the carbon price is making no difference to them, compared with fewer than four in 10 Coalition voters.

Pollster John Stirton says that ''the government's recovery is most likely due to people finding the carbon tax is affecting them less than they expected''. In the Northern Territory, the Country Liberal Party has won government under Terry Mills with 15 seats. Labor has eight and there is one independent. One seat is still in doubt. The biggest swings were in remote areas where the indigenous vote turned against Labor. A similar result federally would wipe out Minister for Indigenous Health Warren Snowdon in Lingiari. The federal government distanced itself from the result, with Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan saying he thought it was ''largely fought on local factors''. Ms Gillard, who was not invited to campaign in the territory said her government would continue to build on its reforms with the new government. But Tony Abbott, who had campaigned in the NT, linked the result to federal factors, saying the Gillard government had failed the people of the territory.

''Their ban on the live-cattle trade put a $300 million industry at risk and threatened thousands of jobs,'' he said, while the carbon tax had added to the cost of living. ''It came as no surprise that Julia Gillard was told to stay away from the territory during the election campaign.'' Mr Abbott highlighted ''the number of successful indigenous candidates now representing the CLP in the territory Parliament''. The ALP said some Labor seats had been saved by a scare campaign about the prospect of public sector jobs being lost under the CLP. With conservative governments now in power around the country, they say this will be a strong theme federally. Labor also seized yesterday on Mr Abbott's admission on Saturday that ''the initial impact of the carbon tax may not be absolutely catastrophic''.

Loading Mr Swan said Mr Abbott was ''admitting that his own scare campaign has failed''. Follow the National Times on Twitter