The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down slightly this week - down 1pt to 98 with 39.5% (down 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the lowest the Government Confidence Rating has been since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, April 23/24, 30 & May 1, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,951 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are easily favouring the ALP. Men: L-NP 52% (down 1%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1%); Women: ALP 54% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 1%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%) and the L-NP now leads with 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%). However the 50-64yr olds are split (L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%) and L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in only two Australian States. The LNP leads in Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48% and Western Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. The ALP now leads in Victoria: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Tasmania: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5% and New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:



