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Many of the service-sector industries that typically act as an ‘economic buffer’ in a recession will be dramatically impacted by social distancing RBC economists

At the top of a forecast from economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank on Thursday, the bank warned that updates would be published more frequently than usual due to “rapid changes in the economic and policy environment.”

TD economist Sohaib Shahid said the “rolling” disruptions caused by COVID-19 will crimp growth, demand and global trade, making a rebound unlikely before the latter half of 2021, even as economic activity has begun to resume in China and South Korea, where cases of COVID-19 appear to be declining. Data from the United Kingdom and Australia has also been “dismal,” the economists wrote.

As the number of those infected with the virus continues to grow across North America, in the United Kingdom, parts of Europe and Australia, along with efforts to contain it, Canada is not unique in the scramble by prognosticators to recalibrate forecasts.

On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reported jobless claims for the week ending March 21 rose sharply, reaching nearly 3.3 million — more than double the forecast 1.5 million. And the United Nation’s International Labour Organization is now reportedly considering revising its estimate from just over a week ago that the pandemic would leave nearly 25 million jobless around the world.

The U.S. has already shed 38 per cent of the jobs lost over the three years of the financial crisis that wound down a little over a decade ago, according to a report published Thursday by Manulife Investment Management.

“No doubt the bulk of the job losses came from the retail, hospitality, travel and restaurant industries,” the Manulife report said. “And it will no doubt get worse over the next two weeks.”