Stamkos all but rules himself out of Game 4 The Tampa Bay Lightning captain says he has only a five per cent chance of playing in Friday night’s Game 4.

Frank Seravalli TSN Senior Hockey Reporter Follow|Archive

TAMPA, Fla. - Steven Stamkos remains in a holding pattern.

The Tampa Bay captain keeps circling, waiting for the clouds to pass for a clearer picture from doctors in his recovery from a blood clot, fully aware he may soon be out of runway with the Lightning.

Stamkos estimated he has only a 5 per cent chance of playing in Friday night’s Game 4 when the Lightning will try to avoid a 3-1 hole against Pittsburgh in the Eastern Conference final.

“There’s still a real possibility that I may not play at all in the playoffs,” Stamkos said after a 75-minute practice Thursday at Amalie Arena. “It’s tough when you have two different [ends] of the spectrum. It’s either you’re going to be able to play or it’s just not safe to play. We still haven’t come to that decision yet. I don’t know when that decision’s going to be made for sure, to either rule in or rule out.”

The biggest issue facing the Lightning captain is that there seems to be no black and white to this decision-making process.

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Stamkos, the Lightning, his family and his agents at Newport Sports Group are gathering as much information and opinion as possible, but the truth is there will likely always be disagreement over a timetable to return to playing from even the foremost medical experts in hematology.

“I don’t think in this situation you’re going to get a 100 per cent green light or a 100 per cent red light,” Stamkos said. “That’s just the way it is. It’s just something that hasn’t been studied and there hasn’t been a lot of data on whether it’s safe to come back from something like this. The more information you get, the more opinions you gather, sometimes the more confusing it gets.”

If Stamkos waits the entire three-month window to where doctors are relatively certain he could return without risk, his contract with the Lightning will have expired.

“If we weren’t in the playoffs, I’d continue treatment for three months and we wouldn’t have a story about it,” Stamkos said. “There’s no data on six weeks versus three months. Is there really a big difference? No one’s done that really before. There could be no difference at all, but obviously when you’re talking about something with the severity of that the surgery and procedure was, you’re going to err on the side of caution for the most part.”

Stamkos said “everything is progressing well” and the tests conducted from “Day 1 up until now are all looking great.”

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Stamkos, 26, said the time is not now to make a decision, regardless of the Lightning’s playoff situation. He has his long-term health to consider, plus a decision on a new contract for next season.

It sounds more and more like whether or not Stamkos returns rests on the judgement of his support team. They are, of course, relying on a relative consensus from doctors, who are all trying to provide answers to the unknowable.

“You just put it all together,” Stamkos said. “It’s such a unique situation. There are really no clinical studies to suggest. There’s risk management. You just have to do your best to gather as many opinions…so you’re well educated on the risks if you do come back [or] realizing that it’s not worth the risk. We haven’t reached that stage yet.”

Contact Frank Seravalli on Twitter: @frank_seravalli