We have been meeting in early autumn for four or five years now, and each year the Eastern question seems to be more complex, more intractable, and the motives of the major players more opaque. This year, the European Union approaches a decision point at the Vilnius Summit. I think that we can all agree that whatever happens at the end of November will be defining in relations between the EU and Europe’s East. The Summit could be decisive, but it is not clear about what. And it will probably be historic (either positively in the sense of Rome or Thessaloniki or negatively in the sense of Versailles or Munich.)

All

agree the decisions at Vilnius will be highly consequential. But we

do not really know what we want the decisions to be. And we probably

have profound disagreements even in this room about what we expect to

achieve with these decisions, either at the Vilnius Summit or in the

future of the Eastern Partnership.