For immediate release Wednesday, June 29 6 pages

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Clinton Trumps Trump by Big Margin,

But Johnson Hurts Clinton More than Trump

Fairleigh Dickinson University, June 29, 2016 – Hillary Clinton retains her lead in the 2016 presidential race among Garden State registered voters, but the inclusion of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson hurts Clinton more than Trump. The most recent statewide survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Hillary Clinton with a 21 point advantage over Donald Trump (52 to 31). That lead drops by double digits to 12 percentage points when Johnson is added to the mix of candidates. Under this scenario, Clinton still dominates with 44 percent while Trump garners the support of 32 percent of registered voters. Gary Johnson attracts the support of nine percent.

“Here in New Jersey, Trump support is solid among about a third of the electorate. There’s less certainty than for Clinton, although with a 21 point lead over Trump in a major party matchup, she can weather the loss of support given the addition of an Independent candidate,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

Clinton loses some support among women, falling from 59 percent of the female vote in a matchup with Trump only to 48 percent when Johnson is included. Clinton also loses support among white voters when Johnson is added to the list of candidates, going from 45 percent support to 34 percent support.

Neither major party candidate is appealing as a protest vote among the majority of New Jersey voters. Around seven-in-ten say they support Clinton or Trump because of the intrinsic support they have for that candidate, rather than casting a vote for that candidate in order to express their displeasure with the other candidates.

“Democrats are breaking for Clinton with Republicans squarely behind Trump. Both major party candidates have a strong base of supporters. Even though there’s been speculation that Johnson would draw Republicans away from Trump, his effect in the Garden State pales in comparison to the expectation,” said Jenkins.

Voters, by and large, expect Clinton to win in November. Around six-in-ten believe the former Secretary of State will prevail, with around a third who think Trump will pull through. Democrats are more convinced that Clinton will pull through as compared with the perception of Republicans regarding Trump. Republicans are giving Trump about a fifty-fifty chance, with Democrats giving Clinton more hopeful prospects.

Neither candidate is perceived with an overwhelming degree of faith that she or he will be able to accomplish what they are pledging on the campaign trail. Fifty-four percent say Clinton is likely to make good on her promises, with only 33 percent saying the same about Trump.

“Walls to keep undocumented immigrants out and middle class tax cuts are seen as more rhetoric than reality. Having grown accustomed to promises unfulfilled, Garden State voters aren’t going to be too quick to expect big changes from either candidate,” said Jenkins.

Finally, the election is responsible for inspiring a lot of political discussions. Forty-two percent say they bring up the presidential election in conversations with family and friends frequently, with another third (32%) who say they are doing so occasionally. Only one-in-four (25%) are talking about this historic election rarely or never.

Clinton supporters are more likely than Trump supporters to bring up the contest in conversations. Among those who report frequent conversations about the election, about half are supporting Clinton with around a third who intend to vote for Trump.

“Politics isn’t something that often animates casual conversation. This election is turning out to be the exception to the rule. Whether it’s the unusual road to the nomination taken by Trump, or Clinton’s historic place as the first female candidate, or something else, there’s plenty to talk about politically these days, and New Jersey voters are plugged in and happy to talk about what’s going on,” said Jenkins.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032

PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from June 22-26, 2016 using a randomly selected sample of 712 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/-3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race. 396 interviews were conducted on landlines and 316 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

If the election for president was held today, which of the following would you vote for?[rotate] (N = 349) PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Clinton 44% 76 31 6 40 48 34 66 45 44 49 37 50 Trump 32% 6 32 68 34 30 41 13 31 32 18 36 35 Johnson 9% 5 17 10 12 6 8 11 10 8 10 15 2 Other (vol) 6% 8 7 4 5 8 6 5 5 8 14 5 3 DK (vol) 7% 4 10 8 7 7 8 4 6 7 6 4 10 Refused (vol) 2% 1 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 1

If the election for president was held today, which of the following would you vote for?[rotate] (N =349 ) Talk about election All Frequently Occasionally Rarely Never Clinton 44% 46 40 44 53 Trump 32% 30 39 28 19 Johnson 9% 11 8 7 11 Other (vol) 6% 8 5 5 5 DK (vol) 7% 6 6 10 7 Refused (vol) 2% 0 2 6 5

Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will win the election for president in November? [rotate] (N = 349 ) PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Trump 30% 11 34 53 29 30 36 18 32 27 23 34 29 Clinton 59% 81 48 32 57 60 52 73 54 64 62 56 59 Johnson 2% 1 8 2 3 2 2 4 3 2 4 3 1 Someone else (vol) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DK (vol) 9% 6 10 13 10 8 10 5 11 7 11 7 11 Refused (vol) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

If the election for president was held today, which of the following would you vote for?[rotate] (N =363 ) PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Clinton 52% 80 31 7 44 59 45 67 56 49 53 56 46 Trump 31% 7 34 76 38 25 37 18 28 33 27 28 39 Other (vol) 5% 3 10 7 4 6 5 6 4 6 5 5 6 DK (vol) 8% 6 21 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 10 9 7 Refused (vol) 3% 3 4 3 5 2 4 1 4 3 5 3 2

If the election for president was held today, which of the following would you vote for?[rotate] (N =363 ) Talk about election All Frequently Occasionally Rarely Never Clinton 52% 53 58 51 35 Trump 31% 34 27 25 39 Other (vol) 5% 3 6 11 4 DK (vol) 8% 7 7 12 13 Refused (vol) 3% 4 2 2 10

Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will win the election for president in November? [rotate] (N =363 ) PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Trump 27% 11 29 56 34 22 29 23 27 27 30 27 27 Clinton 59 77 53 28 55 62 56 65 60 59 59 58 59 Someone else (vol) 1% 2 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 5 0 0 DK (vol) 12% 9 15 15 10 14 13 10 11 13 6 14 14 Refused (vol) 1% 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0

Would you say your vote for [insert name] is a vote in favor of him/her, or a vote against the other candidates? Candidate Clinton (N = 342) Trump (N = 223) Johnson (N = 32) Vote for 71% 70% 25% Vote against other candidates 27% 29% 70% DK (vol) 3% 1% 3% Refused (vol) 0 0 2%

Regardless of who you are voting for, out of the two major party candidates – Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump – who do you think is the most likely to successfully enact policies that are consistent with their campaign promises? [rotate] PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Trump 33% 10 40 69 36 31 41 17 32 34 25 34 38 Clinton 54% 81 41 19 49 59 46 72 54 55 57 55 51 Both/neither (vol) 9% 7 13 8 10 7 9 8 8 9 13 7 7 DK (vol) 4% 3 5 4 5 3 4 2 5 3 5 3 4 Refused (vol) 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

When talking with family and friends, how often do you bring up the presidential election? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Frequently 42% 43 35 43 38 45 42 42 36 46 31 43 47 Occasionally 32% 34 31 31 34 31 33 30 31 34 38 35 26 Rarely 16% 15 24 14 16 17 15 18 22 12 21 15 14 Never 9% 7 9 11 11 8 9 10 11 8 10 7 12 DK (vol) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Refused (vol) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 withheld

NJ1 and NJ2 withheld

And now turning to the presidential election….

Programming note: ½ get PRES1A; ½ get PRES1B

PRES1A If the election for president was held today, which of the following would you vote for?

[ROTATE]

1 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

2 Donald Trump, the Republican

3 Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

4 Other (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES1B If the election for president was held today, which of the following would you vote for?

[ROTATE]

1 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

2 Donald Trump, the Republican

4 Other (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

[Ask if PRES1A or PRES1B LE 3]

PRES2 Would you say your vote for [insert name] is a vote in favor of him/her, or a vote against the other candidates [rotate]?

1 Vote for person

2 Vote against other candidates

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES3 When talking with family and friends, how often do you bring up the presidential election?

1 Frequently

2 Occasionally

3 Rarely

4 Never

8 Don’t know (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

ASK PRES4A of those who were asked PRES1A

PRES4A Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will win the election for president in November [ROTATE]?

1 Trump

2 Clinton

3 Johnson

4 Someone else (vol)

8 Don’t know (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

Ask PRES4B of those who were asked PRES1B

PRES4B Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will win the election for president in November [ROTATE]?

1 Trump

2 Clinton

4 Someone else (vol)

8 Don’t know (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES5 Regardless of who you are voting for, out of the two major party candidates- Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump – who do you think is the most likely to successfully enact policies that are consistent with their campaign promises [ROTATE]?

1 Trump

2 Clinton

3 Both/neither (vol)

8 Don’t know (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

Sample characteristics (weighted)