Patrick Marley and Molly Beck

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

MADISON - Appeals Judge Brian Hagedorn held a narrow lead early Wednesday in the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court, according to unofficial tallies that were so close both sides were bracing for a recount.

In an early morning tweet and statement to supporters, Hagedorn claimed victory.

"The people of Wisconsin have spoken and our margin of victory is insurmountable," the statement read.

But the margin was so narrow that the Associated Press had not yet called the race as of 5 a.m. Wednesday.

Hagedorn led fellow Appeals Judge Lisa Neubauer 50.2% to 49.8% with nearly all of Tuesday's votes unofficially counted — at a margin that allows a recount.

A win by Hagedorn would defy the predictions of prominent groups that typically back conservative judicial candidates but counted him out and wouldn't spend on his behalf during the race.

It would also widen the conservative majority on the high court and ensure liberals couldn't win a majority in 2020.

"This race is too close to call," Neubauer campaign manager Tyler Hendricks said at about 11 p.m.

"We are almost assuredly headed to a recount," he said. "We are going to make sure every vote is counted. Wisconsinites deserve to know we have had a fair election and that every vote is counted."

With all but 15 precincts reporting, Hagedorn was ahead by about 5,500 votes out of nearly 1.2 million cast, according to the unofficial returns.

The winner will replace liberal Justice Shirley Abrahamson, who disclosed last year she had cancer and was not seeking re-election.

Conservatives now control the court 4-3. That would expand to 5-2 if Hagedorn is declared the winner and remain at 4-3 if Neubauer manages to overcome her deficit when the vote count is finalized.

Wisconsin law allows for recounts if the race is within 1 point. If it is within 0.25 points, taxpayers pay for the recount. If it is above that amount but lower than 1 point, the losing candidate must pay for the recount.

As it stood early Wednesday, Neubauer was within the margin where she could ask for a recount, but her campaign would have to pay for it.

Before the exact margin is determined, local officials must canvass the vote to determine the official tally. That process will begin next week. Both sides will be watching closely.



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Liberals had hoped to have Neubauer win this year so they could be on a path to taking control of the court next year, when conservative Justice Daniel Kelly's term is up. The April 2020 election will coincide with Wisconsin's presidential primary, when Democratic turnout is expected to be high.

A win by Hagedorn this year would give conservatives a buffer, allowing them to keep the majority on the court even if a liberal wins in 2020.

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Hagedorn served as Republican Gov. Scott Walker's chief counsel until 2015, when Walker appointed him to the District 2 Court of Appeals in Waukesha. Before he worked for Walker, Hagedorn clerked for Justice Michael Gableman, a conservative who left the court last year after deciding not to run for re-election.

Neubauer spent nearly 20 years at Milwaukee law firm Foley & Lardner before Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle appointed her in 2007 to the same appeals court Hagedorn later joined. Neubauer won election to six-year terms on the court in 2008 and 2014.

The Supreme Court in 2015 named Neubauer the chief of the appeals court — the highest ranking judicial position beneath the state Supreme Court.

Neubauer raised $1.7 million for the race, including $250,000 of her own money. Hagedorn raised $1.3 million.

Liberal groups pumped money into the race to help Neubauer. Among them were the Greater Wisconsin Committee, Planned Parenthood Advocates of Wisconsin and a national group run by Eric Holder, the first attorney general under President Barack Obama.

Some conservative groups that typically spend in Supreme Court races stayed out of the race, but in the last week an arm of the Republican State Leadership Committee ran ads to help Hagedorn. Americans for Prosperity, a group established by industrialist brothers Charles and David Koch, also backed Hagedorn.

WisPolitics.com reported the groups backing Neubauer outspent those backing Hagedorn.

Both candidates had party ties but said they wouldn't color how they rule on cases. Before she was on the appeals court, Neubauer donated to Democrats, worked on the presidential campaign of Gary Hart in 1984 and served as an aide to Democratic state Sen. Fred Risser.

Her husband, Jeff, is a former lawmaker and former chairman of the state Democratic Party and their daughter Greta is now a member of the state Assembly.

Neubauer said she gave up partisan politics when she became a judge, but in 2017 she attended a march opposing President Donald Trump's climate policies. She said she went to the event to support her daughter, who organized it.

In addition to working for Walker, Hagedorn was formerly a member of the Republican Party and was a county co-chairman for John McCain's presidential bid in 2008.

As a law student in the mid-2000s, Hagedorn wrote blog posts that got attention during the campaign, including one in which he contended a ruling striking down anti-sodomy laws could lead to the legalization of bestiality.

He also faced criticism for helping found a private school that allowed banning students or teachers for being in gay relationships and giving paid speeches to Alliance Defending Freedom, a Christian legal group that has argued in favor of anti-sodomy laws. Hagedorn dismissed the criticism, saying his opponents were blasting him for giving career advice to young lawyers and volunteering at his children's school.

As Walker's attorney, Hagedorn worked on high-profile issues that were repeatedly tested in court, including Act 10, Walker's signature law that curbed the power of unions for public workers. The law withstood multiple court challenges.

Also Tuesday, Democrats chose Tip McGuire in a primary for an Assembly seat covering Kenosha and Racine. He will face Republican Mark Stalker in the April 30 special election to replace Peter Barca, a Democrat who gave up his seat to become Gov. Tony Evers’ revenue secretary.

Contact Patrick Marley and Molly Beck at patrick.marley@jrn.com and molly.beck@jrn.com. Follow them on Twitter at @patrickdmarley and @mollybeck.

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