Russell Street Report Lombardi's Way To Defer or Not to Defer?

The Ravens have won the coin toss before 10 of their 14 games this season, a 71.4% winning percentage. After all but one of those 10 wins (90%), the Ravens have deferred. The league average in 2014 is 68%.

The rationale of course is to force the opponent to punt following their first possession and that then tips the number of remaining possessions in the game, barring turnovers, in favor of the Ravens.

In theory, it’s a logical approach but practically speaking, is reality consistent with the theory?

During the nine games in which the Ravens have deferred, opponents on average during their first drive have run 9 plays for 54 yards while chewing up 5 minutes of game clock. Those drives have produced a total of 10 points or 1.1 points per possession.

When the Ravens first possess the ball after deferring they run on average 7 plays for 47 yards and consume 3:24 of game clock. Those 9 possessions have ended in touchdown scoring drives three times, producing 21 points or 2.3 points per possession.

To open up the second half with the football (earned by the deferral) the Ravens on average run 6 plays for 34 yards while controlling the ball for 3 minutes. Those drives have produced 13 points in total and 2 of the drives have ended with a Joe Flacco interception. That’s 1.4 points per possession BUT each of the two interceptions led to touchdown scoring drives by the Colts and Bengals respectively, both games the Ravens lost by 7 or less.

When the Ravens either elect to receive (once in 10 coin toss wins) or lose the toss and the opponent opts to defer (4 deferrals, 5 times in total), the Ravens opening drives on average consist of 7 plays, 49 yards, consuming 3:24 of game clock, producing 17 points. That’s 3.4 points per possession.

This then begs the question what does the Ravens defense do during the opponents’ first possession, the second overall possession of the game? Those drives consist of 6 plays, 30 yards, 2:57 producing 10 points, or 2 points per possession. However 2 of those drives ended in interceptions by the Ravens, which led to 10 points for Baltimore.

So to summarize:

When Deferring

Ravens defense yields 1.1 points on average during opponent’s first possession (-1.1)

Ravens offense scores 2.3 points on average during first possession (+2.3)

Ravens offense scores 1.4 points on average during first possession of Q3 (+1.4)

Ravens opponents score 1.5 points per possession on turnovers following first possession of Q3 (-1.5)

That’s a +1.1

When Receiving

Ravens offense scores 3.4 points on average during first possession (+3.4)

Ravens defense yields 2.0 points on average during opponent’s first possession (-2.0)

Opponents score 2.6 points on average during first possession of Q3 (-2.6)

Ravens offense scores 2.0 points per possession on turnovers following first possession of Q3 (+2.0)

That’s a +0.8

For the Ravens the difference between deferring or receiving is minimal in the grand scheme of things based on the results described above. But given the negligible difference and the slow starts that often characterize the team, maybe John Harbaugh should shuffle the deck and take the ball a few times after winning a coin toss.

What would you do if you were John Harbaugh and the Ravens won the coin toss?

I prefer Joe Flacco on the field right away versus sitting around for 10 minutes of real time (or more) before he takes the field. Maybe it’s just me but after that bench time he looks a lot like a college kid who just woke up from a nap.

So come on Harbs, shake it up a bit. It’s obvious there’s not much to lose.

Either that or we just have to hope that the law of averages catches up to the Ravens when they meet with the referee at midfield before the game.

Y ~ Yes

N ~ No

D ~ Defer

R ~ Receive

T.O.D. ~ Turnover on Downs