A new assessment by U.S. and East Asian intelligence officials concludes North Korea will be capable of launching a nuclear-capable, intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year. The new conclusion dramatically alters previous forecasts that indicated Pyongyang was two years away from significant advances in its program.

Intelligence officials now believe the country’s nuclear program will advance from prototype to the assembly line, a worrisome factor that would indicate the missile would be ready to be used as a real weapon.

[North Korea could cross ICBM threshold next year, U.S. officials warn in new assessment]

But former U.S. officials and weapons experts said a successful test of a nuclear-capable ICBM would dramatically raise the stakes in the North Korean crisis, putting new pressure on North Korea’s neighbors and increasing the risk of miscalculation.

“This notion that the program is unsophisticated is no longer true, and I don’t think the strategy is unsophisticated, either,” said Vipin Narang, an MIT professor who has written two books about nuclear strategy.

Narang said Kim’s blueprint appears to be derived from the playbooks of other countries that developed nuclear weapons, including Pakistan. The short version: repel and deter. He would hope to have enough nuclear firepower to repel a conventional attack from South Korea while deterring a game-ending nuclear retaliation by the United States.