The only sure thing about the often conflicting transit plans of Toronto’s top three mayoral candidates is this: none of them will be built as proposed. And any compromised outcome will arrive years hence, only after a tumultuous and divisive political battle.

Thr conflict will start at city hall and extend to Queen’s Park, and, likely to the federal government (the city’s funding partners).

The trick for citizens desperate for transit is to discover what’s possible, throw electoral weight behind it, and demand their governments build it. But getting there promises to be frustrating, no matter who wins.

If Olivia Chow wins, city council will immediately descend into the equivalent of a civic world war, with skirmishes reaching the Kathleen Wynne provincial government.

Ground Zero would be the planned replacement of the orphan, underappreciated and abandoned Scarborough RT line. City council first voted to replace it with an LRT fully paid for by the province. Then, last October, council reversed field and opted for a subway, kicking in $910 million for the project.

In addition, the provincial Liberals backed the subway plan during a byelection and during the provincial election this spring. Changing their minds would prove difficult.

Then, there’s volatility around the issue in Scarborough, where opinion polls show a majority want subways. This is fuelled by latent feelings of rejection and a narrative that says downtown gets subways while the ’burbs get streetcars and buses.

Throw in the practical matter of getting the votes on council. While Chow might be able to rely on the vote of someone like Councillor Glenn DeBaeremaeker on most matters, the Scarborough councillor is a virile defender of the subway. In fact, he takes pointed and passionate offence to his downtown colleagues who want an LRT there.

The TTC has said either subway or LRT is doable. Metrolinx, the provincial agency funding it, has sided with LRT but says it will cave in to whichever side wins.

In fact, the only signed agreement between Metrolinx and the city is for LRT. A new master agreement is on hold, pending reports and studies from the city. A Chow win would further muddy things and kickstart a mother of all transit wars.

If either Doug Ford (open Doug Ford's poilcard) or John Tory wins, one assumes they would be able to ward off any attempts to reopen the decision and the Scarborough subway stays. But other battles loom for plans put forward by either candidate.

Ford promises a full-scale conflagration with his rhetoric that dismisses LRT outright. With him at the helm, LRTs on Finch and Sheppard will again be in limbo. He even proposes to bury the section of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT that will run on the surface, east of Don Mills Rd.

The mantra of “subways, subways, subways” would again ring out, sparking delays, delays, delays, just at the time citizens want council to build, build, build.

The delays and disruption and chaos of the last four years are an indicator of what to expect. In addition, now Ford says the downtown relief line (DRL) would jump ahead of the pack in his mind, ahead of Sheppard and Finch.

That position is clearly designed to serve as a wedge issue and deliver him votes intended for Tory, the candidate Ford needs to beat. But it would be a disastrous gamble for citizens.

The DRL is nowhere near ready or needed as a first priority. And any suggestion of a subway along Finch will be laughed out of city council, while a Sheppard subway is a most difficult sell. Result? Political gridlock.

Tory’s challenge will be getting the studies and data before council to convince them that a different kind of transit — electric trains on existing GO Transit tracks — is the fastest, most cost-effective way to provide transit relief for a wide swath of commuters from Markham, through the downtown and out to Etobicoke and Mississauga.

His plan has something for everyone: subway to Scarborough, continuation of plans for LRTs on Finch and Sheppard, and continued progress on the future DRL. And the SmartTrack proposal, which is in synch with provincial plans and seems to have their favour.

The sticking point will be money.

Once they start counting the dollars, city council will be forced to consider all the projects and ask: Is this the best way to go? Are there alternatives? At the end of this unprecedented spending on transit, will commuters be any better off?

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There are transit planners who will tell you we are putting subways in the wrong place, LRTs where they won’t help, and ignoring options that are better suited to our needs.

This is exactly what voters do NOT want to hear.

More on that later.

Royson James usually appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Email: rjames@thestar.ca

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