PERTHS unsustainable urban sprawl will be tamed by a new blueprint to shape an increasingly compact city of 3.5 million people.

The Barnett Government’s Perth Future Plan will outline why the city’s fringe cannot continue expanding at the same rate as the past.

The strategic vision forms part of the biggest shake-up of planning for Perth’s growth in more than half a century.

To be unveiled early next year, the document will argue that higher density infill housing developments in existing suburbs must be accepted.

The blueprint plans for 3.5 million people to call Perth home by the late 2040s – a 75 per cent increase over the next three decades.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics expects the rate of growth to be even faster, projecting a population of 3.5 million within 20 years.

And the woman leading the Perth Future Plan said it was inevitable the city would eventually accommodate five million people – bigger than Sydney’s current population.

Department of Planning director general Gail McGowan said the focus was to “limit” sprawl and consolidate the city’s urban footprint.

“It’s unsustainable to continue to sprawl out,” Mrs McGowan, who was appointed to the senior post in April, said.

“The vision we are trying to create is having the right mix of housing types, supported by industry, recognising the environmental constraints and natural attributes in Perth, so that we get the best of all worlds – but don’t just keep on sprawling.”

There are no plans to follow Melbourne or the Canadian city of Toronto, which defined urban growth boundaries to permanently halt sprawl.

Instead, its envisaged land rezoning around key transport corridors will encourage higher density housing to accommodate the booming population.

An economic development study is looking at the creation of jobs at “activity centres”, such as Fremantle, Midland, Armadale and in the city’s northwest.

“We can have a vibrant, livable city and that change can be accommodated, but we have to change some of the thinking around what we’ve always expected,” Mrs McGowan said.

“The thinking that it’s possible to just continue effectively an urban sprawl, that governments have funds to allow or to support. One of the biggest challenges we have got now is the provision of new infrastructure. The minute you have development in an outer region comes the pressure for schools, water, etc.”

West Australian Planning Commission chairman Eric Lumsden said doomsday scenarios of Perth sprawling from Geraldton to Bunbury would not happen.

Likewise, he stressed high-rise towers would not be allowed to destroy the fabric of established suburbs, but forecast Perth would increasingly become a compact city.

“That is going to occur and it is occurring now, but it will intensify over time. People are now showing a need to downsize and an increasing number of Gen Ys don’t want four-by-twos in greenfields,” he said.

“That’s why you are seeing, particularly in the CBD and other areas such as City of Belmont, increased inner-urban living, rather than what occurred in the 70s, 80s and 90s where people just went to a greenfield site up in the northwest corridor.”

Debra Goostrey, WA’s Urban Development Institute of Australia chief executive, rejected the suggestion that continuing the current pace of greenfield development was unsustainable.

She said the new suburbs were “masterplanned communities” and the cost of upgrading infrastructure in established areas to cope with infill was often far higher.

It’s unsustainable to continue to sprawl out

“We absolutely need more quality infill, but there are a lot of people who aspire to new homes and that is what we are delivering in the greenfields and often at quite an affordable price,” Ms Goostrey said.

Latest figures show the proportion of infill versus fringe development in Perth dropped from 32 per cent in 2011 to 28 per cent in 2012.

Property Council of Australia’s Joe Lenzo said a new strategy was needed if the Barnett Government was to achieve its infill target of 47 per cent.

It wants tax incentives for older households to downsize to free up existing homes for redevelopment, councils to support higher density rezoning and for more publicly-owned land to be made available for development.

“The development industry in WA is ready to support larger rates of infill housing like apartments and units in the inner city and in the suburbs,” Mr Iacomella said.

“However the rate of infill development will not pick up significantly until the structural hurdles to infill development are removed.”

The Perth Future Plan will be released for public comment alongside four “structure plans” for the metropolitan region. This will be followed by the long-awaited Strategic Assessment for the Perth and Peel Regions late next year.

The blueprint for growth is the biggest of its kind since the Stephenson and Hepburn Plan of 1955, which guided the expansion of the metropolitan region.

It will show where urban and industrial development can take place, reserve space for transport and infrastructure corridors and areas where raw materials can be extracted.

More than three years in the making, the strategic assessment will aim to fast-track approvals by reducing the need for project-by-project environmental assessment.

Ms McGowan said it would provide developers and conservationists a much clearer picture about where development can occur and hopes it will also stimulate public debate about the type of city Perth residents want.

“I wouldn’t say it is a new Stephenson Hepburn Plan. And the reason I won’t is that has served us well but contemporary life was much more predictable. In a globalised world the pace of change is much more rapid,” she said.

“So will we see another Stephenson Hepburn Plan as such? Probably not. We’re saying, ‘let’s look to the focus on 2031, project out a bit further then to say there is going to be a point in time where our population is going to double, broadly forecasting to five million’.

“Can we draw the lines on the map now for that five million population given the changes in technology? No. It has taken us 184 years to get to this population and now we’re talking about it doubling in the space of another 50 years. We’re in a different time and place.

”The challenge for planning is to be able to forecast and do those broad frameworks and the lines on the map, but retain the capacity to be nimble enough to respond to some of the societal changes that are happening at a pace that we’ve never seen before.”

I think we are in a very important moment for Perth

THE NEXT PHASE OF PERTH’S GROWTH

PERTH has reached a crucial moment in its development, former WA Governor Ken Michael believes.

The civil engineer, who became one of WA’s most distinguished public servants, said Perth had been well-served by the Stephenson Hepburn Plan, which for more than half a century provided a blueprint for the city’s urban expansion.

The 1955 report — by British expert Gordon Stephenson and town planning commissioner Alistair Hepburn — correctly predicted the city’s population would swell from 420,000 residents to 1.4 million by the end of the century.

The pioneering document reserved space for eight highways ¬- seven of which were constructed — and formed the basis for the 1963 Metropolitan Regional Scheme, which continues to define land use in Perth.

Dr Michael, who served as Commissioner of Main Roads and Chancellor of the University of Western Australia, said Perth was “on the right path” but similar foresight was needed for the next phase of the city’s growth.

He believes a new visionary plan, which can be adopted and improved upon by successive State Governments, is crucial to ensure Perth remains among the world’s most livable cities.

“I think we are in a very important moment for Perth. We have relied on the existing Metropolitan Regional Scheme, and adjusted it to suit, but we effectively haven’t changed it significantly since Gordon Stephenson. We need a new visionary plan to guide our future as a community, recognising the achievements and difficulties of the past, but reflecting especially on the needs of the future.” he said.

There is no doubt that innovative projects are being implemented. That shows there is a need for something bigger. These are big initiatives and I support them, but we are doing them as they arise.

“The time has come to sit down and say, ‘if we were looking to the future, what would we put on the table?’ You’ve got to be able to think big in order to create the opportunities today to go forward.”

Dr Michael said “old suburban” communities still have their place in Perth’s make-up, but have had their time. He said the city was moving to precinct developments in areas such as East Perth, Subiaco and Midland, where residents can work and play close to their homes.

Despite starting his career working on the first stage of the Mitchell Freeway at the Narrows Bridge in the early 1960s, he believes the time has come to end Perth’s love affair with the car by creating an expanded suburban rail network.

“If there’s going to be an issue it’s going to be accessibility. We’re very much car-dominated and the key is the public transport system. We’ve got a very good one by national standards, but that doesn’t mean it’s serving all our needs,” he said.

“We need to be imaginative and creative about the network of rail that we should have and over the next 20 or 30 years gradually put elements of that in place, in association with the vision you would want to see for Perth. Instead of having to drive everywhere people can actually walk or cycle safely to the shops and work. That’s a healthy and livable environment.”

As the city’s population continues to grow, he believes the economy of scale could make a fully-fledged river transport system one day viable.

“In 50 years I can envisage commuters coming along the river and being dropped off at Mosman, Barrack Square, Claisebrook Cove or Elizabeth Quay or going up the river to a vineyard. People always thought I was a roads person, but I’ve always been about the safe and efficient movement of people and goods. That’s what I’m about. I didn’t say by road, I didn’t say by rail - it could be by the river as well,” he said.

The former East Perth Redevelopment Authority chairman stressed he was not criticising the State Government, but believes a new plan could guide successive governments for decades to come. The development of a long term shared vision in consultation with the broader community will provide the basis for the statutory schemes of the future.

“We must always remember that there are immediate needs which can be adjusted and fixed, commensurate with the plan you have for the future,” he said.

“It’s just like planning your travel: you seek your destination and the enjoyment is getting there, but never losing sight of where you want to be. That to me is what planning is all about.”

THE ‘SILICON BEACH OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE’

A “Perth brand” is needed to tell the city’s story to the rest of the world, according to the Lord Mayor of Perth Lisa Scaffidi.

The avid Twitter user said that in an increasingly connected age, the ability to influence worldwide perception had never been greater.

“It is important to be strategic and to consider the Perth and WA narrative right now,” she said.

“Just as some people feel more stylish when they buy a designer item or get a great feeling as they post pictures of themselves in New Yor or the Amalfi coast, we want to be very focused on creating that feeling about being in or visiting Perth.”

The Lord Mayor believes Perth is well-placed to capitalise on its burgeoning technology industry and brand itself as the ‘Silicon Beach of the Southern Hemisphere”.

She called on the city’s leaders to “think big”, reiterating her idea of a huge lookout tower in the middle of the Swan River for the city’s bicentennial celebrations in 2029.

A World Trade Centre as part of a landmark building at Elizabeth Quay would be a magnate for information and investment and further grow the city’s status on the world stage, she said.

“We must be ambitious with out plans and clear in an action plan to achieve them that not only creates buy-in and garners support, but follows through. Given that budgets and politics can minimise the visions, if we start big we may achieve more,” Ms Scaffidi said.

“Government and civic leaders need to work together more closely and be brave in how they deal with the harder items that can at times be controversial and highly debated in society. Issues such as civic safety, binge drinking, respect, law and order and of course homelessness and begging.

“But this can only be done if people are not afraid to really make a difference.

“Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani believed, as I do, in the ‘broken window theory’ which is the idea that you have to pay attention to small things, otherwise they get out of control and become much worse.

“There is still a lot of talk encouraged by various committees and think-tanks which are well intentioned but not always appreciative of Government Acts and processes. But these discussions do make us think and at the same time raise expectations.

“Raised expectations can do two things - spur everyone on to achieve more or sometimes cause angst that things are not being achieved quickly enough.

“I do hope with the increasing appreciation that government cannot in the current day do it all, more philanthropy and even crowdsourcing innovation is a way to move on achieving our visions.”

Everyone is talking about traffic now

A CITY OF FIVE MILLION PEOPLE

PERTH cannot grow into a mid-sized city yet act and think like a large country town, according to the head of a high profile think-tank.

Marion Fulker, CEO of the Committee for Perth, said community attitudes need to change to stop Perth continuing to develop as a car-dependent, sprawling, natural resource intensive city.

Research by the organisation paints a bleak picture if the right planning doesn’t occur for Perth as a city of five million people. If a “business as usual” approach continues, we can expect:

● There will be four to five million vehicles in Perth, meaning the city would have 15 per cent more cars than are in London today, but 50 per cent fewer people.

● congestion will increase journey times by an average of 180 per cent across the day and 300 per cent in peak periods. A commuter currently spending one hour each way getting to and from work in peak periods will spend nearly three hours;

● the size of the city’s urban footprint to nearly triple to an estimated 15,700sqkm, bigger than present-day Tokyo, but with just one seventh the population;

● an additional 30,636 hectares of bush land will need to be cleared and;

● more than three million people will live more than 20km from the CBD;

● house prices will rise to more than 16 times median income (up from 3.9 times in 2000 and 6.5 times today);

“What tends to happen in boom towns is that everyone gets excited because there is an economic uplift and everyone can hope they will benefit. Then there comes a period of uncertainty and this is where we think Perth is now, ‘we’re not so sure about all of this, is it all about just money or is it about quality of life?’ I think we’re having those discussions now,” Mrs Fulker said.

“The third thing is near-panic and that’s when societies start to breakdown and lastly it’s about adaptation and resilience. Our work is trying to leapfrog that third stage of near-panic by trying to be the canary in the coal mine, to talk about some of the issues before they become catastrophic.

“Until people feel the pain personally it’s more of an esoteric debate, but everyone is talking about traffic now. You used to go to a meeting in football season and everyone talked about whose team won, now they talk about how long it took them to get there and how much they paid for their parking.”

The group will next month release its plan for Greater Metropolitan Perth as a city of five million people, which Mrs Fulker hopes will be an impetus for change.

“We’re only just starting to feel growing pains now and the community are just starting to get fed up with it. Imagine if we keep going down this trajectory for another five to ten years,” Mrs Fulker said.

“The problem is planning and implementation are such long horizons. It comes back to this near-panic, things will get to crisis point before government action.

“That’s really why we are trying to do that work and it really does reinforce you can’t just keep on having urban sprawl, having people live at the fringe, people disconnected from work and home and everyone hoping in their cars.”

‘A ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY’

PERTH is experiencing a “once in a lifetime opportunity”, according to the man overseeing multi-billion dollar projects changing the face of the city.

Metropolitan Redevelopment Authority CEO Kieran Kinsella said Elizabeth Quay, Perth City Link and Riverside would “fundamentally change the way people interact with our city”.

By spring next year, the public realm and inlet at Elizabeth Quay will be complete, promising a “premier waterfront destination that capitalises on the beauty of the Swan River”.

Shortly after, the new Yagan Square within the arms of the Horeshoe Bridge will give Perth a public square in the heart of the city that celebrates WA’s history and culture.

Yagan Square, part of the project to reconnect the city centre with Northbridge by sinking the railway, will feature a food market, public art and a rooftop Australian bushland setting.

Outside the CBD, Mr Kinsella said Scarborough beach is set to become one of Australia’s best beachfront destinations by 2017.

A soon-to-be-released masterplan will propose more restaurants, cafes, shops and entertainment activities. The revitalisation project will transform the area’s ailing infrastructure and make it a more welcoming place for families, Mr Kinsella said.

The MRA can be given new development areas at the discretion of the Government. Beyond 2020, the agency will help Perth achieve its residential infill target of 47 per cent.

“In the city, this will mean an expanded CBD footprint extending out to 10 blocks by 10 blocks over the next 20-30 years. It will be a more densified, cosmopolitan city not only within the City of Perth, but also in surrounding areas where there will be a patchwork of activity like Oxford Street in Leederville and Beaufort Street in Highgate. People won’t have to travel to enjoy vibrancy and choice,” Mr Kinsella said.

“In places like Hay and Murray streets, some of the old office accommodation will likely be either converted or pulled down and rebuilt and, as part of the north-south expansion created by Elizabeth Quay and Perth City Link, more residential development will fill Northbridge.

“Outside of the CBD, more people will be living in activity centres like Armadale, Midland, Cockburn, Murdoch and Stirling with transit-oriented developments being built in each of those areas.

“One of the fastest growing metropolitan regions of Perth, the southeast corridor is where a lot of Perth’s population growth will be accommodated in greenfield development. The Armadale and Wungong redevelopment areas will create tens of thousands of new homes, more than 15,000 jobs and significant essential community infrastructure over the next 10 to 15 years.”

Words: Peter Law

Photos: Matthew Poon, Ross Swanborough

Video and artist impressions: Metropolitan Redevelopment Authority