With one month until Election Day, Republicans' chances for retaking the Senate and picking up seats in the House are improving.

The GOP has been buoyed by positive public polling, while red-state Democrats are still struggling to find distance from President Obama. There are bright spots and even some unexpected new targets on the map for both parties, but the overall national environment seems to have ticked a bit toward Republicans.

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The GOP needs to win a net of six seats to retake control of the Senate, and Republicans seem better-positioned to do so now than they did through much of the summer.

Democrats must hold their own for a decent election night, and they’re putting their faith in their vaunted ground game for the final stretch.

Both sides say control of the upper chamber is still very much at play, and Republicans certainly aren’t taking a victory lap just yet.

“The Senate is up for grabs and the outcome is far from certain,” said Paul Lindsay, spokesman for the pro-GOP American Crossroads. “There's a lot of encouraging signs in many states and a good progression for us in many states. But at the same time many of these races are still up for grabs.”

The GOP is all but certain to win open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Their candidates have alsopulled into dead heats or slight leads against red-state Sens. Mark Begich Mark Peter BegichAlaska group backing independent candidate appears linked to Democrats Sullivan wins Alaska Senate GOP primary Alaska political mess has legislators divided over meeting place MORE (D-Alaska), Mary Landrieu Mary Loretta LandrieuBottom line A decade of making a difference: Senate Caucus on Foster Youth Congress needs to work to combat the poverty, abuse and neglect issues that children face MORE (D-La.) and Mark Pryor Mark Lunsford PryorCoronavirus poses risks for Trump in 2020 Tom Cotton's only Democratic rival quits race in Arkansas Medicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 MORE (D-Ark.), leaving the party feeling bullish that former Alaska Department of Natural Resources commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) and Reps. Tom Cotton Tom Bryant CottonBattle lines drawn on precedent in Supreme Court fight Sunday shows - Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death dominates Chris Wallace presses Cotton on 'any hypocrisy' between comments on Supreme Court vacancy in 2016 and today MORE (R-Ark.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) will be joining the upper chamber next year.

They’ve taken a small lead in an open-seat Iowa battle between Rep. Bruce Braley Bruce Lowell BraleyThe Memo: Trump attacks on Harris risk backfiring 2020 caucuses pose biggest challenge yet for Iowa's top pollster OPINION | Tax reform, not Trump-McConnell feuds, will make 2018 a win for GOP MORE (D-Iowa) and Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) that Democrats likely can’t afford to lose. Republicans are also neck-and-neck in Colorado, where Rep. Cory Gardner Cory Scott GardnerMcConnell locks down key GOP votes in Supreme Court fight Will Republicans' rank hypocrisy hinder their rush to replace Ginsburg? Jeff Flake: Republicans 'should hold the same position' on SCOTUS vacancy as 2016 MORE (R-Colo.) has closed in on Sen. Mark Udall Mark Emery UdallThe 10 Senate seats most likely to flip Democratic presidential race comes into sharp focus Democrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump MORE (D-Colo.). New Hampshire has also tightened, though Sen. Jeanne Shaheen Cynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenSenate Democrats introduce bill to sanction Russians over Taliban bounties Trump-backed candidate wins NH GOP Senate primary to take on Shaheen Democratic senator urges Trump to respond to Russian aggression MORE (D-N.H.) still has the edge over former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.).

But it’s not all good news for the GOP.

Republicans have a major and unexpected headache in deep red Kansas, where Sen. Pat Roberts Charles (Pat) Patrick RobertsThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by National Industries for the Blind - Trump seeks to flip 'Rage' narrative; Dems block COVID-19 bill GOP senators say coronavirus deal dead until after election Trump says he'll sign USPS funding if Democrats make concessions MORE (R-Kan.) is trailing independent Greg Orman in the polls.

Republicans are hopeful that Roberts can right the ship now that he has a professional team around him. New national strategists are working to discredit the independent newcomer, and Orman has steadfastedly refused to say who he’ll caucus with if he does win. But Republicans privately admit that Roberts’s residency issues and lackluster campaign have put him in a bind.

Sen. Kay Hagan Kay Ruthven HaganThe Hill's Campaign Report: Democratic Unity Taskforce unveils party platform recommendations Democrats awash with cash in battle for Senate The Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's job approval erodes among groups that powered his 2016 victory MORE (D-N.C.) is hanging tough with a small lead against North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis (R), helped by a huge spending advantage in the red state and the unpopularity of the state legislature Tillis has led.

Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) is also a near-lock to win his race against former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) in a race Republicans long hoped they could win.

And while Begich, Pryor and Landrieu are all in tough fights, strategists in both parties say all of those races could still go either way.

“Our red-state Democrats are running incredibly strong, as are our other candidates across the map, and we're well-positioned to hold the majority because we have better candidates running better campaigns. Republicans are saddled with a slew of bad candidates that are defending even worse records,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Justin Barasky.

Democrats have had few offensive opportunities this election cycle. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellOcasio-Cortez to voters: Tell McConnell 'he is playing with fire' with Ginsburg's seat McConnell locks down key GOP votes in Supreme Court fight Video shows NYC subway station renamed after Ruth Bader Ginsburg MORE (R-Ky.) has clung to a small but sturdy lead in his race against Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), according to most polling.

There have been few reliable polls of Georgia, but strategists in both parties think businessman David Perdue (R) still has a lead over former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D), though Democrats believe his history of outsourcing jobs gives them enough fodder to defeat him.

On the House side, Democrats are largely in retrenchment mode as they look to protect some incumbents they’d hoped would be in good shape and at this point are trying to hold any GOP gains to a minimum.

Democrats have largely given up on taking out early targets like Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Jeff Denham (R-Calif.), along with capturing open seats in suburban Detroit and Philadelphia.

Instead, Democratic outside groups are putting in resources to protect Rep. Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.), who few on either side expected would face much of a race, and an open seat in Maine they thought they had locked in after Republicans nominated a hard-right candidate. Freshman Reps. Julia Brownley Julia Andrews BrownleyHouse Democrats eyeing much broader Phase 3 stimulus Assistant House Speaker self-quarantines out of 'abundance of caution' Actor Orlando Bloom to self-quarantine MORE (D-Calif.), Ami Bera Amerish (Ami) Babulal BeraThe Hill's Coronavirus Report: iBIO Chairman and CEO Thomas Isett says developing a safe vaccine is paramount; US surpasses 150,000 coronavirus deaths with roughy one death per minute Democrats fear US already lost COVID-19 battle Karen Bass's star rises after leading police reform push MORE (D-Calif.) and Pete Gallego Pete Pena Gallego4 Texas GOP congressional primary runoffs to watch GOP candidate scores upset win in Texas state Senate runoff Koch group launches digital ads in tight Texas House race MORE (D-Texas) are also in tougher fights than Democrats thought they’d be in early on.

“Democrats are coming to grips with the reality that they'll be playing more defense than offense,” said David Wasserman, House editor for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

“This just isn't a year full of opportunity for Democrats… Republicans aren't reaching deep into Democratic territory but they're going to win back some seats Democrats won in 2012.”

Democrats do have some big pickup chances, however, against a trio of incumbents with self-inflicted wounds: Reps. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.), Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) and Lee Terry (R-Neb.). They’re also hopeful about open seats in Iowa, Arkansas and Northern Virginia.

Neither side has a clear advantage in terms of the national mood, and without a wave forming, there are fewer competitive races than ever before. But Republicans are benefitting from a midterm electorate that tends to lean their way more than in presidential years as Democrats are defending some freshmen they thought would be able to win without much national support. Both sides privately agree that Republicans will likely pick up a half-dozen seats on Election Day, and possibly more.