The final weekend of the first real PUBG World Championship begins in Oakland this weekend and it had me reminiscent for the for the first PUBG tournament that I ever watched 2 years ago (almost to the date) that was also held in Oakland.

There are just a handful of players that played in that tournament who managed to qualify for this one and even fewer that are still playing for the same teams. There are however a lot of similarities in the talent line up, which either points to just how right the scene got it from the start or how few opportunities there are to break into the top tier of PUBG talent. Maybe a little of both.

Either way, one of the things that struck me the most was how uncertain everything was back then. When and if hot drops would happen, how the observers could capture any of the action at all, how to pronounce Jeemzz's name - it was all a bit of a mystery.

The other thing that struck me the most was how far the game play has come. The shot mechanics were there for the majority of players (though they were still not to the standard that they are now) but strategically, it was plain awful.

There were some teams dropping in different areas to their team mates.

The vehicle rotations were only done as a team if all the players were in the one vehicle.

There were team members running across open fields on foot while other members were out of sight still looting.

The scouting was really rough.

The decision making was slow.

It was such a contrast to the decisiveness, discipline and speed that we are used to seeing now and that level of play took a step to the highest level ever seen this past weekend.

I'm not just talking about the hyperbole surrounding the unbelievable Faze comeback, but there were several teams that used the unprecedented strength of these lobbies to push themselves to new levels. The truth is that the final 16 teams that have made it to the final weekend of PGC comprise the unquestionable strongest PUBG lobby ever assembled. Even the amazing performances of last weekend will not be enough. To win this, a team will have to take their game to a new level.

So which teams have it in them?

Below is my take on all 16 team’s chances of becoming the World Champions - in order

The Favourites

Lazarus

A team that finished 2nd in Phase 3 of the NPL, with a change of personnel both in and out of game. They have steadily improved through the tournament, with their brand of consistency seeing them get three 3rd place finishes on their first day of play and two 1st place finishes on their last day of play. They "won" the semi final stage, and their "bad" day saw them gain 40 points. Outside of GEX (who amazingly finished both days with exactly 41 points each) nobody had a better bad day. They are on their home turf, have a hell of a lot of experience in big international matches and boast the only Australian remaining in the tournament in luke12. They deserve to be one of the favourites here.

4AM

There is no question that they are capable of absolute domination after their 77 point day saw them comfortably qualify for the Grand Finals after just 5 matches last weekend, but there is a small question mark over them heading into Oakland. Their second day was far from ideal, and there is every chance that they simply took it easy to save themselves for their final run this weekend, but in losing the hot drop battle with Lazarus for Hacienda, they have put themselves in an interesting position that is likely to impact them however it plays out. Find a new drop spot and have to play out of an unfamiliar area or continue to fight for Hacienda and risk getting knocked out in the opening minutes of the match. 5 of the 12 games are on Miramar so it's important that they find something that works for them if they are going to win it all.

TSM

They finished the group stage with the most points and finished the first day of the semi finals in 1st place to really make their mark on this tournament. The addition of coach Didz and legendary fragger Iroh has seen this team go from an also ran team in the PEL to a leading light on the world stage. Their controlled style will see them remain in most matches long enough to rack up the points and give them a real chance at this level and in this format, but there are 2 concerns. The first is that this is TSM and the memes are real, but really the main one is that as the intensity of the games has increased, their daily points total has dropped. They scored 63 on their first day, 54 on their second and 32 on the last day. It's a worrying trend that has the potential to end in disaster for arguably the best hope remaining for EU. They will need 2 days like their first to finish on top, and it is definitely an achievable target.