Guesser is launching later this month. Our first release will fundamentally change the way you participate in Augur prediction markets. Investing in the outcome of real world events will be at your fingertips in a seamless few clicks.

As 2018 ended we reflected on Augur’s progress throughout the year. We also saw how many of the platform’s markets closed as they were based on certain events happening before the end of the year. 2019 opens up the possibilities for new market ideas.

Creating markets will not be available in our first release. Making the creator experience 10x better is part of our future roadmap. But for now, if you want to create a prediction market, you will be able to use Augur’s client as always. For a good tutorial on how to create a market there, see this video.

Has Anyone Noticed My Market?

Most markets die without any activity. You put your time, energy and a little money into creating one, and then watch in sadness as it flies into prediction market heaven.

If you’re here, you’re probably interested on how Guesser will help your future markets gain traction. Their popularity will generate creator fees for you. As more people interact with it by buying and selling outcomes, you’ll be making more money.

Getting people to participate in their market is a usual struggle for creators — now Guesser will do that work for you.

The Guesser team won’t create markets. We want to foster a community of creators around our product to help you grow your prediction markets to the largest audience possible. For the time being, we’ll curate which ones get listed on our site. If yours gets chosen, it will be on our front page for all of our users to see. Our interface is designed to be so simple that you’ll be able to get anyone you know excited about your market and how they can get a piece of the action.

So, how will we choose what markets to list? In this first release:

1. Six at a time

There will only be 6 markets open for activity in Guesser at the same time. The site will be dynamically updated: once a market ends, a new one will replace it.

2. Keeping it binary

We are listing only binary markets, specially with Yes/No outcomes.

3. In a few days

Short timeframe markets are really attractive. A market has a higher chance of getting picked if it is about an event that occurs next week rather than many months later. A sense of urgency encourages people to participate. Of the 6 markets that will be live at any given time, we expect 3 or 4 to be about events that end in less than 10 days. This will also be a plus to those worried about ETH’s price changing during the market: the shorter it is, the less exposure to volatility.

4. Wild wild internet

Guesser is all about predicting the hottest events on the internet .Therefore, we recommend that you choose a topic that you really like. That might be a post getting a number of upvotes on a subreddit, a funny word that a youtuber could say in a video, a product you love that is launching soon or Elon Musk changing his profile pic again. Being original is better than being too general: most markets go after a broad topic thinking it will attract a bigger audience, but then don’t resonate enough with anyone.

5. Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity

Once you have your market outlined, liquidity is the key factor: the best ones have a deep book of open orders. As a creator, we encourage you to provide initial liquidity to your market by sending well funded buy and sell orders at reasonable prices into it once it’s live on Augur.

6. Every detail matters

A fair creator fee, the description being worded very clearly so that it isn’t resolved to invalid, precise date and time of ending… are all essential aspects we take into account.