Surkov's group of influence is one of the public clans, which competes with siloviki not only in access to big money flows, but also in choosing methods of reaching the objectives: while FSB (Building on Lubianka at photo), chooses terror acts as a method of scaring and thus consolidating the society around Putin, Surkov's group would rather bet on political ties, media, bribing, meddling in elections. Often enough, both groups work in ensemble, if Putin chooses a joint scenario: while Russia's "little green men" occupy Donetsk and Luhansk, the political wing prepares "elections" and "voting" in towns and cities, creates needed "parties", "media" and "politicians". It's also together that these groups "nationalized" the captured enterprises in Donbass and the annexed Crimea – for the benefit of certain Russian oligarchs.



At the end of the day, Kremlin's power vertical is able to create separate shadow empires for the key players domestically, while at the same time acting unitedly on foreign fronts.



In 2017, global political and economic conjuncture doesn't seem to go Russia's way. It pushes Putin into the good old options of rulling the country – actions of fear, explosions in the subway. Meanwhile, key figures around Putin publicly sort things out between themselves: it becomes harder to share resources, which are rapidly contracting under sanctions. Force structures' figures and politicians in Kremlin are in showdowns over Ukraine already far beyond Russian borders. In result, by a strange coincidence, one of the key witnesses, closely tied to siloviki, was recently murdered in Kyiv.



Putin himself, having chosen the Crimean trap consciously, seems to still think that he can get out of it without losing his leg. He is ready to be upping the ante, and going furher forward – in Ukraine, as well as in other countries. The television is on. Decorations already paid for. Opposition crashed. Everything's ready for a new geopolitical show, aimed at further preserving Putin's regime and everyone whom it feeds.



With this in the background, high-ranked officials and diplomats, as well as foreign friends of Ukraine, claim that they recieve signals of a new scenario being prepared to further destabilize the Eastern Europe. This time, it's not only Ukraine which is in focus. Closest neighbours of Russia are in the risk zone as ell: Belarus, Baltic states, Moldova, and also Kazakhstan and Georgia.



This special report of LIGA.net looks into scenarios of military-political developemnts in the post-soviet space. The project is devoted to the Russian-Ukrainian war hitting it's fourth year. It contains a wide range of opinions of dozens of sources – diplomats, members of force structures of Ukraine, National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, General Staff, Security Service of Ukraine, members of the intelligence community of Ukraine.

