Red-state Democrats and party strategists are already nervously looking past 2016, when they are angling to recapture the Senate, to the 2018 elections, hoping against hope that their party isn’t setting itself up for a titanic midterm backlash that could flip control of the Senate for a third time in three elections.

As difficult as the 2016 Senate map has been for Republicans, who had to defend numerous blue- and purple-state seats and could lose their majority, Democrats’ 2018 map looks practically unnavigable. The party starts with five ruby-red seats to defend: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Then, Democrats have a slew of Senate seats up in traditional swing states, including Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If he doesn’t become vice president, Tim Kaine will also face reelection in closely divided Virginia in 2018. And if he does, a Democratic appointee could face an expensive special election in 2017 before the race for a full term the next year.


However far off it may seem, the consequences of the 2016 election are already hitting home for lawmakers preparing to defend their seats in 2018. While Democrats cheer Hillary Clinton’s lead in the presidential race right now, they are also very aware that it could lead, like clockwork, to a very bad midterm election for Senate Democrats in two years — while the slimmer chance of a Trump victory could help inoculate some of their red-state senators.

“[Democrats] have not figured out how to translate presidential success into midterm success. And even worse, this time we have a candidate who is winning by default,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on Senate races. “It’s going to be a disaster.”

Meanwhile, Republicans are already looking ahead.

2018 is “already on the minds of Republicans," said Scott Jennings, who ran a super PAC backing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky in 2014. "We're on defense for two more months and then we go on offense for two years. Mitch McConnell could be looking at a supermajority."

Much will depend on how the winners this November decide to wield their power in the White House and on Capitol Hill. Some Democrats blame their big 2010 midterm losses on the party’s embrace of divisive policies, like cap and trade and health care reform, in the wake of President Barack Obama’s victory. Voters already have more unfavorable opinions of both Clinton and Trump than they did of Obama when he faced a midterm wipeout in 2010. And a new presidential agenda could put red-state Democrats in a tough spot immediately in 2017.

“Voters are good about keeping this country in check,” said Adrianne Marsh, a Democratic strategist who managed Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill’s 2012 reelection bid. “In many ways perception is reality, and if people perceive that there’s a power shift that’s getting out of hand, they’re going to react to it, making the midterm more challenging for us than it might have been.”

Senators are already laying groundwork for 2018 before voting even starts in 2016.

Montana Sen. Jon Tester, who is chairing the DSCC this election, frequently rings Montana Democrats from his tractor to check in on Denise Juneau, the state education superintendent who is running for Congress against GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke — Montana’s lone House member and a possible Tester challenger in 2018.

Tester hasn’t formally announced whether he’ll run for reelection. But Zinke’s statewide pedigree could make him a formidable challenger, and thwarting the Republican’s reelection run could give Tester a boost in 2018. Tester has already attended multiple Juneau events and has helped her staff and fund her campaign.

Tester “was a state legislator. He realizes this is not always about the top of the ticket,” said Montana Democratic Party executive director Nancy Keenan.

Other Democrats are carefully tending to home state politics as well. North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp did a round of August meetings with local farmers on the Farm Bill, which doesn’t expire until 2018 but is hot on the agricultural community’s minds because of low crop prices.

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin is expected to spend the fall focusing on a Senate bill to protect coal miners’ pensions.

McCaskill is the only senator of the red-state 2018 crowd who has been speaking on television on Clinton’s behalf. Her cohorts mostly laid low this summer at the Democratic National Convention. And their states’ Republican leans mean that Clinton has not been coming to local events.

This attention to home state politics isn’t unusual for lawmakers, especially those who face difficult reelection battles, aides and strategists note.

“Having a target on our back is something we’re pretty used to,” said Tessa Gould, Heitkamp’s chief of staff and 2012 campaign manager. “If anything, I wake up every day and think about that.”

That target could get bigger the moment the presidential election ends. A politically charged Supreme Court nomination could be the first issue on tap for the Senate after the 2016 election is over. Manchin and Heitkamp have already faced attack ads on the issue from the conservative Judicial Crisis Network.

“When you think about those vulnerable senators, I think you have to consider: If Hillary Clinton puts up a liberal, pro-EPA judge to replace Scalia, how is Joe Manchin going to vote on that? How is Heidi Heitkamp going to vote on that?" a Republican strategist asked.

Kevin Robillard contributed reporting.