Ed Note: Another excellent post from redsoxu571. Had to get this to the front page. -- Dave

It's no secret that many frequenters of BtB have their eyes on the two impressive-looking 1-Tech DTs in the 2018 NFL draft, Vita Vea and Da'Ron Payne. But many in that lot fear that there is little chance of either still being on the board when the Dallas Cowboys pick at #19.



Indeed, there is great concern that none of the players graded as true "first round" prospects will be available for selection by Dallas. "There is no way that Dallas will get a first round guy with just 14 or so of them out there this year" is oft heard. "That's right, 40 guys will be taken by the time the Cowboys select at 19" is the common cheeky retort. Which side has the advantage in this battle of...umm...wits?

The Draft Is Never A "Chalk" Exercise



The first lesson we can take from recent draft history is that there will always - always - be some surprise picks in the first round. That doesn't mean such picks are bad, but they do serve to push some prospects down the board.



Looking at draft history is not an exact science, but to keep things simple let's draw up a list of draftees taken through the first 20 or so picks who were not rated nearly as high as their actual draft spot, as ranked by the respected (as outlined in this fine piece by our own Tom Ryle) Mike Mayock. This gives us a sense of how many non-"first round" prospects could leap ahead of Dallas's slot. The list:





Some takeaways:

QBs are a consistent force when it comes to draft shakeups. There are generally three sorts of QB prospect: slam-dunk elite guys (who always go very early), true first rounders (these can move around), and non-first-rounders (guys who are flawed enough that even QB-hungry teams won't reach for them). The first and third types tend to be drafted in straightforward fashion, but it's the second group that sometimes goes surprisingly early, or at other times lingers until the bottom-third of the round.

Over the past five years, we have seen 5, 4, 3, 4, and 4 "surprises" inside the range in question. This has become a rather steady phenomenon, and often occurs when a draft lacks much in the way of certain highly desirable positions (QB and WR in 2017, OL in 2015, etc).

Most surprise picks (all but Bortles, in fact), ranked outside of the top 19 for Mayock, and virtually every draft has had exactly two such guys taken before 19. 2014 saw just one "on the outside" prospect leap into the top 19, and 2017 saw three, but that's it for exceptions. You can almost plan outright for two surprises selections inside the first 18 picks .

. "Reaches" tend to occur after the clear "super elite" (usually between 5 and 10 prospects) prospects are off the board, though 2017 was an exception with teams looking for offense even while some special defenders were still available.

I couldn't help but throw Travis Frederick's Mayock ranking in there. Whoops! Naturally, don't actually count him as part of this exercise.

Implications For Dallas In 2018



The availability of an appealing prospect at any given pick comes down to a numbers game. There is a minimum number of prospects you can essentially lock in before a certain point, and then there is a range of prospects who could appeal after that, factoring in a few inevitable surprises. Let's turn to the "BtB board" (as linked to in the opening of this post) and general consensus to see how the numbers game stacks at this stage:



It is very difficult to find the big four QBs (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield) not projected inside the draft's top 15, and Barkley, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, and Nelson are universally there as well, so that is eight of eighteen slots easily taken care of. From there, the most usual suspects are:

-Pass rushers Davenport and Landry

-DBs Ward, James, and Jackson

-LBs Smith and Edmunds

-OL McGlinchey and Williams

-Interior DL Vea and Payne

-WRs Ridley and Sutton

-QB Jackson

That's another fourteen names, none of which would shock in the slightest inside of 18. If we get extra conservative and remove one OLman, one WR, Jackson, and no more than one pass rusher (it's hard to imagine that Chubb would be the only pass rusher to go top 18), the draft would have to be completely chalk to prevent anyone else from dropping to 19, and as we've seen that is almost assured of not happening.



Furthermore, there is a TON of potential for further disruption from expectations. Jackson could snatch up a fifth QB entry ahead of Dallas. OL is ALWAYS in demand (hence why it's a lock for at least one of McGlinchey or Williams to go top 18), which could encourage a team to take Daniel, Price, Wynn, Hernandez, or another OT early. Ditto WR, and this is a class with little consensus at the position but a number of names that could be the apple of a team's eye (Kirk and Moore are at least in the conversation now). Teams are also seemingly showing more willingness to take a RB at the current time - or, perhaps, recent RB talent has just been better - and so a number of mocks have Guice going earlier than you might think. Even Ronnie Harrison has the sort of profile to pull a Keanu Neal and crack the top 20.



Not many of these players will go early. In fact, it's quite possible that none of them will. But the track record of recent seasons says otherwise. Set in stone the elite eight plus McGlinchey and one of the LBs, and lock down two more slots for "surprise" picks. That means only around six more names will be unavailable out the list of Davenport, Landry, Ward, James, Jackson, Smith/Edmunds, Williams, Vea, Payne, Ridley, Sutton, and Jackson. Perhaps one or more of the "blue" DBs will still be out there? Ridley easily might be there for the taking, as could one of the LBs that has BtB Nation drooling. Or maybe a much-desired DT will be waiting...speaking of which...

Don't Be Too Quick To Rule Out Vea Or Payne's Availability At 19



There is no reason to beat around the bush here, so I will be upfront: NFL teams don't sprint to the podium to take space-eating DTs. The following is a list of every major, recent DT with this sort of profile (i.e. not a quick, undersized 3-Tech) Mike Mayock had rated highly, along with where said defenders were actually drafted:





The trend here couldn't be more clear: space-eating DTs almost universally are drafted later, sometimes much later, than they are rated. Mayock was not alone in his bullish view of these players, and yet it didn't matter. Perhaps just as importantly, the vast majority of these names have proven to be relative disappointments, further justifying this trend and suggesting that there is every reason it will continue.



Don't make the mistake of thinking that Vea and Payne are more highly regarded than the above names. Only Fairley and Floyd were ever seen as special among all draft prospects; the former goes back to the earliest observed year here, 2011 - DT value has likely shifted since then - and the latter is likely a perfect example of that shift, with the league no longer valuing such a player while the media lags behind on that perception. In other words, not a one space-eating DT has been considered a "super elite" draft prospect, and that is a reflection of the way the position is seen. Plenty of these names garnered public excitement around combine time, but that excitement did not hold in front offices.



Implications For Dallas In 2018



Danny Shelton is the only DT of this sort taken before pick 23(!) over the past five years, and he hasn't exactly lit up the league to motivate teams to draft differently. It's difficult to tell whether Vea and Payne are more like Cox and Poe, and so might both rate higher and be drafted higher, or whether the league has fully shifted away from DTs who don't offer undeniable interior pass rush skills. The point here is not to promise that Vea and Payne will still be on the board at pick 19; that is impossible, as it takes only a single team to break from trends.



No, the point is that an expectation that Vea and Payne have NO chance to be available at 19 is decidedly not correct. If you wish to be a betting fellow about this, you'd be better off expecting them to not be picked by that point than to be chosen. For just one example, here is a mock draft in which precisely that occurs, with Vea going at pick 22 and Payne at pick 26 (bonus: Ridley, Ward, and Jackson also fall to 19 in this mock, demonstrating the way the numbers game could easily work out as outlined in the previous section of this post).



If you have your heart set on Vea or Payne, you have much more than a puncher's chance that the opportunity will be there for Dallas to make your dreams come true. Better yet, if your hope is for Dallas to get any one of the perceived "blue chip" prospects, it's more likely that the team will have 2+ to choose from than to have none available at all. Dream away, you princes of Dallas, you kings of Cowboys!