Legalizing recreational marijuana in Michigan could draw in far more tax revenue than what proponents have been advertising, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Senate Fiscal Agency.

Should Michigan voters agree to legalize recreational marijuana -- on the Nov. 6 ballot as Proposal 1 -- the state could bring in up to $287.9 million in new tax revenue in 2023, according to the new analysis released Monday.

That's more than double the estimate that the pro-marijuana campaign in Michigan released two weeks ago. A study commissioned by the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol found Proposal 1 could bring in $134.5 million in 2023, when the recreational marijuana market is expected to peak in Michigan.

"Whether you take our conservative estimate or the state's more bullish estimate, the key thing is that Proposal 1 will help the state collect significant and much-needed tax revenue to help fund roads, schools and local communities," said Josh Hovey, spokesman for the pro-marijuana campaign.

Scott Greenlee, leader of the opposition campaign Healthy and Productive Michigan, said the new estimate changes nothing.

"We're talking about a tiny half a drop in the bucket for the state budget," Greenlee said. "I know a lot of people are looking at this. It shows further ambiguity of what is actually going to happen."

Proposal 1 legalize marijuana for recreational use for adults 21 and over.

The proposal would require the state to set up a licensing system for businesses, and would set a 10 percent excise tax on the product and apply the state's six percent sales tax. Those taxes would be among the lowest recreational marijuana taxes in the country.

The Senate Fiscal Agency found that by 2023, the state would draw in $262 million between the $287.9 million in recreational marijuana tax revenue and a loss of $25.9 million in tax revenue from the elimination of the excise tax on medical marijuana.

Local municipalities could also lose out on excise tax revenue tied to medical businesses within their jurisdiction should Proposal 1 pass.

By 2023, recreational marijuana could generate $105.6 million from sales tax and $182.3 million from excise tax, according to the Senate Fiscal Agency analysis. The state also estimates it could collect $22.3 million in revenue from license fees.

Here is where the money would go in 2023, according to the Senate Fiscal Agency analysis:

- School Aid Fund: $140.2 million

- Michigan Transportation Fund: $62.8 million

- Counties: $26.8 million

- Cities: $26.9 million

- Administration: $2.9 million

- Constitutional revenue sharing: $10.6 million

- General Fund: $17.6 million

Should recreational marijuana be legalized, it would be regulated by the Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs -- the same agency that oversees liquor licenses and the medical marijuana program.

The state says it would need the equivalent of 27 full-time regulatory and licensing staffers to manage a recreational marijuana program, which would cost $2.5 million. The program would likely cost the state more than that, due to increased facility space needs and information technology purchases, according to the agency.

The state's analysis did not assume any additional spending on law enforcement.

Read the Senate Fiscal Agency report

To start up the tax processing, the state would have to spend $1.9 million at first, and then $1.2 million in ongoing costs to support four staffers in the state's Department of Treasury. An additional $1.75 million to $3.1 million would be needed to process the tax revenue, depending on how large the market becomes.

-- Amy Biolchini is the marijuana beat reporter for MLive. Contact her with questions, tips or comments at abiolch1@mlive.com. Read more from MLive about recreational marijuana.