Opinion

Officials chase after 'Bullet' and its $28 billion impact

Let's just get this out of the way: we still don't know the identity of the aerospace company that could deliver the biggest economic jolt to this region in a generation — or two or three.

My colleagues and I only know the manufacturer by its menacing code name: Project Bullet.

On Jan. 10, the Express-News reported that if San Antonio is lucky enough to land the project, it would bring a minimum of 3,000 jobs over time to Port San Antonio on the Southwest Side, with average annual pay of at least $80,000.

Now here's the upper range: as many as 5,000 jobs paying as much as $100,000 on average.

And a couple of new tidbits, gleaned from sources close of the recruitment drive: spending to build a facility for R&D and manufacturing — believed to be a mix of commercial and military work — would exceed $1 billion, and the total economic impact would hit $28 billion over a 10-year period.

Yet, still no name.

But we're in good company. Most of the local insiders sweating out the site-selection process, in which San Antonio is said to be competing against sites in Florida and Washington, don't know the manufacturer's identity, either.

Or if they do, they're exhibiting a discipline rarely seen in San Antonio's chisme-loving elites.

The aerospace firm has been working with locals through third-party consultants.

Sure, speculative short lists abound, mostly drawn from the obvious companies, the ones with international heft. Think: the Boeing Co. or Lockheed Martin, both of which have a significant presence at Port San Antonio, or Northrop Grumman.

There's also speculation about what kind of manufacturing we're talking about. Some of the buzz centers on unmanned aircraft systems, or drones. But a brand-new $1-billion-plus facility with a workforce of several thousand seems a little excessive considering the current state of the industry.

As UAS analyst Michael Blades of Frost & Sullivan's San Antonio office notes, worldwide military spending on drones reached only $9.5 billion last year, and the Federal Aviation Administration continues to slowly plug away at rules for commercial drones in the U.S. — which is keeping a lid on potentially lucrative civilian sales.

But whichever company San Antonio is courting, and whatever it produces, it apparently has a lot to think over.

In recent months, representatives from the city, county, CPS Energy, San Antonio Water System, a handful of other government entities and a few business leaders — a group of 20 or more — have met at least twice to go over San Antonio's bid.

The San Antonio Economic Development Foundation, the behind-the-scenes play-maker for such efforts, called them together. Funded by the city, county and private businesses, the organization also is the semi-official secrets-keeper for these kinds of projects; the assumption is that its president, Mario Hernandez (and a small knot of top state and local leaders) knows which manufacturer he's dealing with.

One insider I spoke with, however, doubts whether even Hernandez knows for sure.

Hernandez isn't saying one way or the other. He declined comment for this column.

The working group that EDF brought together convened one late-fall afternoon at the Plaza Club, the former stomping ground of San Antonio's powers-that-be on the top floor of the Frost Bank Tower on Houston Street.

But the pivotal meeting came Nov. 29. That's when officials crowded around a U-shaped conference table at Port San Antonio's main office to hammer out details of what's been described as the biggest incentive package ever cobbled together to lure a company to San Antonio. We hear that then-Deputy City Manager Pat DiGiovanni chimed in on speakerphone, and a representative from Gov. Rick Perry's office was on hand.

A point of reference: the deal handed to Toyota a decade ago was valued at $133 million. Since then, the automaker has made direct capital investments here totaling $1.4 billion and now employs 2,900 people at its pickup assembly plant on the South Side. Throw in suppliers' employees and the number of jobs nearly doubles, jumping to 5,700.

The working group met on a Thursday. The aerospace firm's deadline was just days away. Shepherded by former Mayor Henry Cisneros, EDF's chairman, officials reportedly made only minor tweaks to the incentive package after the late November session.

“We put a great offer on the table,” one local official says. “We feel we have a really good shot at this.”

I'm guessing economic development officials in competing states would say something similar — and mean every word of it.

They'd probably also say what the San Antonio guy said next — “The ball is in the company's court now.” And they'd probably say it with just as much nervousness in their voices.

That's because of the anticipated military component of Project Bullet.

In other words, don't even get them started on the sequestration specter and the possibility of deep cuts to defense spending come March 1.