He cited the LocalLink 51, (former #11: Inner Harbor-Towson), whose on-time performance increased from 59-67 percent, as a success story.

“Why Do the Numbers Keep Changing?”

The pre- and post- BaltimoreLink on-time performance comparison (top chart) is significant.

It shows a change in how MTA is tracking its LocalLink bus on-time performance. Previously, the agency had reported its local buses had as high as an 85 percent on time performance rate.

As recently as November, MTA claimed that around 80 percent of its BaltimoreLink buses arrived on time and credited BaltimoreLink changes with a nine percent improvement in overall bus reliability.

Delegate Brooke Lierman, who represents the 46th district in Baltimore City, noticed the change and asked Quinn for clarification.

“You were quoted in a Baltimore Sun article saying BaltimoreLink had an on-time performance of 80 percent,” she said.

“80 percent? 67 percent? Why do the numbers keep changing?” Lierman asked.

Quinn replied that there are “ lots of ways to measure on-time performance,” and that MTA had recently changed to a new reporting system.

The agency transitioned from using Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) to an Automated Passenger Counter system (APC) because AVL was not accurate enough.

Basically, MTA’s new lower on-time local bus performance numbers reflect that change.

Of AVL, Quinn said, “In my opinion, AVL did not accurately represent passengers’ experience on the system.”

He explained:

“In the past we were using a technology [AVL] and relying on a technology that essentially counted a bus that did not spit back data from a particular node as being 100% on-time,” he said. ‘That is a big assumption to make — that if the bus doesn’t spit back data because the technology on it is wrong that it counted as on-time. And so we’ve made a decision not to go with that methodology anymore.”

The APC, he said, has a higher reliability, “doesn’t make these kinds of assumptions,” and provides geo-locational data as well.

This change confirms what riders have said for years: that MTA reliability statistics were off or wildly inconsistent and didn’t match up with their real world experiences riding the bus.

I’m glad to see the MTA was willing to change its reporting system and publish more accurate data.

To put LocalLink on-time performance numbers in some context, the Washington Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s on-time performance goal for its buses, which it has already met, is 79 percent and Metro Houston’s is 75 percent.

MTA’s goal for LocalLink is 80.

Clearly, at 67 percent, LocalLink still has a long way to go.

On a positive note, the new CityLink color-coded high-frequency buses, which run on headways not schedules, are closer to meeting MTA expectations.

They make up about 55 percent of MTA service and maintain their headways — no more than five minutes late or one minute early — about 77 percent of the time.

Worth noting: MTA has not yet released route-specific performance data for CityLink buses. The 77 percent is an average of the 12 routes.

CityLink bus reliability is tracked by geolocation hardware installed on all CityLink buses, and the entire MTA bus fleet will be equipped with the same hardware later this spring.

Ridership and Service Changes