Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District: A Sociocultural and Political Analysis

In January 2018, the Democratic-controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court invalidated the commonwealth’s congressional map. Siding with the League of Women Voters, the court ruled that legislative Republicans had gerrymandered the state in 2011, thereby violating the Pennsylvania Constitution. Republican legislative leaders and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf could not agree on a replacement map by a February 19th deadline, so the court adopted new districts which it had commissioned Stanford Law Professor Nathaniel Persily to draw.

Republicans expected that a court map would endanger several suburban incumbents. But surprisingly, Persily’s map most dramatically challenged the political fortunes of three-term Pittsburgh-area Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Edgeworth).

In his first bid for Congress, Rothfus narrowly lost in 2010 to two-term Rep. Jason Altmire (D-McCandless)—a popular Blue Dog Democrat with crossover appeal in Pittsburgh’s conservative North Hills suburbs. Altmire successfully painted Rothfus—then a corporate lawyer—as out of touch with the middle-class district. But in 2012, legislative Republicans merged Altmire’s district with that of liberal Rep. Mark Critz (D-Johnstown); thanks to strength in his more primary vote-rich Johnstown base, Critz upset Altmire. Mitt Romney carried the new 12th district by 16.9%, and Rothfus rode Romney’s coattails to a 3.5% general election victory over Critz.

As the rural turf in his district swiftly trended rightward, Rothfus sailed to easy re-elections in 2014 and 2016. He joined the anti-establishment House Freedom Caucus, but he otherwise cut his profile as a hard-working, backbench, suburban Republican—an incumbent befitting a deep-red district that Donald Trump carried by 20.8% in 2016.

But Persily’s map radically reconfigured Pittsburgh-area districts. The new 17th was the obvious successor to Rothfus’ old 12th, but gone were right-trending Cambria and Westmoreland Counties—those upon which Rothfus had grown to rely as the Trump-skeptic North Hills moved sharply leftward in 2016. Of the former 12th district’s right-trending counties, only Beaver joined the 17th. Instead, the new 17th snapped up portions of the blueing South Hills and heavy industrial areas northeast of Pittsburgh that Republican mapmakers had buried in Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle’s former 14th district. Trump and Romney won the new 17th by just 4.52% and 2.5%, a far cry from their performances in Rothfus’ formerly safe seat.

To make matters worse for Rothfus, a young, charismatic JAG Corps veteran named Conor Lamb (D-Mount Lebanon) would defeat State Rep. Rick Saccone (R-Elizabeth) in a May special election; Persily had placed much of Lamb’s South Hills support base squarely in the 17th. Amidst the 2018 blue wave, Lamb defeated Rothfus in November by 12.52%.

In class and politics, the 17th is a district divided. Heavy industry’s heyday left an indelible imprint not only on the district’s social and cultural fabrics but also on its form; the vestiges of baronial wealth sit perched in the hills, high above riverfront flatland towns with their closed factories, vacant storefronts, and tired Victorian homes. The automobile conquered the rugged hills north and south of Pittsburgh; developers built thousands of tract homes after World War II that attracted returning GIs with middle-class industrial jobs.

Domestic and international migration—from Eastern and Southern Europe, Appalachia, and the Black Belt—formed the backbone of the city’s proud labor union history. But steel’s decline catalyzed that of blue-collar Democrats’ regional political dominance. As working-class Midwestern Democrats broke from tradition en masse to re-elect Ronald Reagan in 1984, Beaver County blamed Republicans for steel’s decline. Just twelve years after Richard Nixon had managed to win the deep-blue county, it gave Walter Mondale 63% of its vote. John McCain’s three-point victory in Beaver County foretold a dramatic realignment; Trump won the county in 2016 by a near 3:2 margin. In contrast, Trump’s political emergence rapidly increased white-collar Democrats’ foothold in Pittsburgh suburbia. As Pittsburgh gains prominence as a back-office tech hub, the 17th—unusually white for a suburban district at 87.5% in 2018—could upscale and diversify.

The 17th has slightly favored the GOP in elections since 2000, but Democrats’ major 2018 breakthrough in the R+3 district should concern Republicans—especially as population trends favor the further growth of the district’s blueing suburbs. As Republicans must defeat dozens of Democratic incumbents in similar, Trump-won suburban districts to win a House majority, the 17th’s changing political geography is worthy of study.

In the rest of this article, sourcing census data, election results, and primary knowledge of the district’s culture, politics, and economy, I divide the district into six distinct sociocultural regions and analyze each region’s political trends.

Regional Analyses

PA-17’s Six Sociocultural Regions

Election Results by Region

President

U.S. Senate

Governor

Row Offices

U.S. House

Analysis

Region 1: Historic Industrial Centers (Aliquippa, McKees Rocks, Monaca)

Region 1 is home to hollowed-out industrial centers, struggling Main Streets, and closed Kmarts. The 1980s steel collapse brutalized its small cities; the region’s median household income registers under $40,000. After significant depopulation, most remaining residents are too poor to have left. Pointing to the white-ethnic dominance of Pittsburgh’s once-thriving steel economy, Region 1 is still 77.1% white—much more so than comparable areas across the Midwest.

In 1983, American Bridge Company closed its steel plant in Ambridge—the company town it had developed at the turn of the 20th century. When J&L merged with Republic Steel to form LTV Corp., it closed Aliquippa Works in 1984 and laid off 8,000 employees. As the area’s industrial real estate lost its value, local municipalities lost most of their tax bases; several have struggled to leave Pennsylvania’s Financially Distressed Municipalities Act 47 program since its 1987 inception. In 2019, Aliquippa lost the Bruce Mansfield Power Plant—the state’s largest coal-fired plant. The Shippingport Atomic Power Station closed in 1985, but if Wolf succeeds in entering the state into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Hookstown’s endangered Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Station will remain open. Citing Trump’s steel tariffs, Allegheny Technologies closed its 70-employee stainless steel plant in Midland. Tenaris announced it would idle its two steel production sites in Koppel and Harmony Township amid the ongoing oil and gas crash, eliminating 550 jobs.

Despite environmental concerns, the area’s glimmer of hope is Shell’s planned ethane cracker plant in Monaca. Plant construction employed 7,000 workers before the state’s COVID-19 stay-at-home order; once operational it will employ 600 full-time workers.

Democrats have long dominated Region 1’s politics, having carried it in every statewide election since 2000—and likely all since the New Deal. But Trump surged to 45.08% of the vote here in 2016, trailing his district-wide total by 6.17% after every other Republican presidential nominee since 2000 ran at least 12.97% behind. Trump outperformed the statewide Republican ticket in Region 1, but signaling realignment, the GOP made down-ballot inroads in 2016 that proved fairly sticky in 2017.

Region 2: The Petit Bourgeois (Beaver Falls, Leetsdale, Reserve)

Populated largely by those who could leave Region 1, Region 2 is characterized by the petit-bourgeois, middle-income but with modest college graduation rates and few managers and professionals. Portions are exurban-to-rural, but others are lower-middle-class Pittsburgh suburbs. Industrial employment is still important to its residents, but more than Region 1, its economy has followed the regional economy in its diversification. Reserve Township is a picture of working-class white flight and continued exclusion; it borders a 93.54% black Pittsburgh neighborhood but is 98.75% non-Hispanic white. H.J. Heinz laid the foundations of his food processing empire at his Sharpsburg home; although Heinz moved his operations to Pittsburgh’s North Shore, a Sharpsburg factory long produced glassware for all Heinz products.

Region 2 started the 21st-century voting a few points to the left of the district throughout the ballot. But as Democrats increasingly emphasized environmentalism and cultural progressivism, Region 2 steadily realigned towards the GOP—even before the Obama presidency. Trump saw a 4.01% gain over Romney, less pronounced than in Region 1 but indicative of a longer-term trend to the right. Since 2016, the GOP has run a few points ahead of its district-wide performances in Region 2, showing the most strength in federal races.

Region 3: Diversifying Suburbia (Penn Hills)

Region 3 is coextensive with Penn Hills, a diversifying suburb generally home to middle-class blacks and whites. Middle-class blacks began moving to Penn Hills in the late 1960s, but that diversification began to spread elsewhere in the township in the 1990s. American Community Survey data from 2018 shows that Penn Hills’ demographics have stabilized this decade; its black population growing just 2.43% since 2010, reflecting positive race relations within the town. As such, while the solidly Democratic township continues to trend leftward, that gradual movement has remained slow.

Region 4: Business Owners, Contractors, Engineers, and Managers (Cranberry, McCandless, Moon)

Region 4—about half of the district population—is upper-middle-class suburbia and exurbia. Senior industrial workers and managers first settled many of Region 4’s post-war tract homes when Pittsburgh’s steel economy roared, but today these suburbs lean corporate. Depending on the municipality, two-fifths to three-fifths of its residents hold bachelor’s degrees and two-thirds to three-quarters work white-collar jobs (the BLS’ Management, Professional, and Related Occupations and Sales and Office Occupations categories). But unlike those of Region 6, few Region 4 residents have attained master’s degrees and even fewer have earned professional degrees.

For reasons of topography, a majority of Greater Pittsburgh’s office-occupying jobs remain concentrated around the Pittsburgh CBD. The area’s rugged terrain has prevented the development of a beltway highway around the city; cross-town commutes on the Allegheny County Belt System are arduous, so it behooves suburban office park workers to live near their jobs. As such, the dominant employment sector in each peripheral job center flavors the sociocultural makeup of its surroundings.

Each Republican presidential nominee since 2000 has earned between 54.09% (Bush ’04) and 56.41% (Romney ’12) in Region 4, demonstrating remarkable inelasticity on a presidential level. But at times, its voters have been willing to split their tickets; Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett and Democratic Auditor General Jack Wagner each carried the region in 2008 with a respective 67.01% and 63.88% of the vote.

While Region 4 trended left in 2016, but Trump’s performance dropped from Romney’s by a relatively modest 3.02%. Republican candidates consistently ran about two-percent ahead of their district-wide performances in 2016 and 2018, representing a decline from mid-single-digit overperformances in the pre-Trump era. Republicans must maintain their edge in Region 4 to win PA-17 and reclaim several state legislative seats which were lost by GOP incumbents in 2016 and 2018.

Region 5: Inner-Suburban Cosmopolitans (Mount Lebanon)

In a sense, Mount Lebanon is Pittsburgh’s answer to suburban Philadelphia’s Lower Merion Township; upper-middle class in parts and highly affluent in others, with notably high percentages of residents holding advanced degrees, commuting to the city for professional or research jobs, and choosing their inner-ring residence for its school district, transit access, and pre-war charm. Pittsburgh Light Rail serves only a few suburbs: Bethel Park, Castle Shannon, Dormont, Mount Lebanon, and Upper St. Clair. Eleven-percent of Mount Lebanon residents commute via transit—an unusually high figure for a Pittsburgh suburb. Relative to those in other sizable metropolitan areas, self-fashioned cosmopolitan professionals—the types who settle on inner-ring suburbia elsewhere—have long tended to raise their children within Pittsburgh proper. The city offers several stellar independent schools and public magnets, plentiful affordable housing, and a low cost of living. But as growing tech employment continues to push pricing higher in favored Pittsburgh neighborhoods, more could choose inner-ring suburbs to avoid paying for private school tuition.

Mount Lebanon voters leaned Republican into the George W. Bush presidency, voting 51.23% for Bush and 55.48% for Rick Santorum in 2000—several points to the right of both the district and the state. But as the GOP continued to lose ground with highly educated voters, its performance in Mount Lebanon slid. Mount Lebanon remained competitive through 2014; Corbett won the township in 2010, Romney took 46.12% in 2012, and Auditor General candidate John Maher (R-Upper St. Clair) carried it in 2014.

The Trump era expedited the GOP’s slow decline in Mount Lebanon. Trump plunged 10.37% from Romney’s 2012 performance to 35.75%, while Toomey fell 4.8% from 2010 to 42.77%. In 2018, Conor Lamb took 70.73% of the vote in his hometown while Sen. Bob Casey (D-Scranton) won 70.14% and Wolf led the ticket with 71.71%—respectively placing Mount Lebanon 14.47%, 11.59%, and 11.13%, to the left of the district. The best-case 2020 scenario for the GOP in Mount Lebanon would be for Trump to hold his 2016 figure, but that may be an uphill battle.

Region 6: Professionals and Executives (Fox Chapel, Pine, Sewickley Heights)

Many of Pittsburgh’s top professionals and executives make their homes in Region 6. Portions are merely comfortable, while others rank among the wealthiest places in America—Average Household Incomes (note: AHI, not MHI, for emphasis on the extent of the right side of the midpoint) in 2018 ranged from $160,382 in Marshall Township to $410,911 in Sewickley Heights. Region 6 is diverse only in its towns’ primary eras of development. Steel executives and managers once lived in tonier sections of riverside factory towns, but the automobile era allowed the well-off to decamp to highland suburbs removed from noxious fumes. The Allegheny Country Club’s 1902 relocation from Pittsburgh established Sewickley Heights as the most fashionable locale for Pittsburgh’s captains of industry and top professionals to build their sprawling, hilltop estates. Elites also favored Fox Chapel—home to the Pittsburgh Field Club—and Edgeworth. The I-79 corridor gained prominence as an upscale corporate center in the late 1980s; northwest Allegheny County underwent an upscale development boom.

The only Democrat to carry Region 6 between 2000 and 2016 was Wagner—a regionally popular former Pittsburgh City Council President. But as it has nationwide in educated and affluent suburbia, the GOP has cratered here in the Trump era. While down-ballot Republicans substantially outpaced Trump in 2016, Wolf, Casey, and Lamb each carried Region 6. While Republicans likely still would hold an edge in Region 6 in a neutral year, Democrats have clearly raised their ceiling.

Looking Ahead

Former Army Ranger Sean Parnell will be the GOP’s PA-17 nominee in 2020. Parnell has a compelling story as a Purple Heart winner but raised just $195k in Q1 2020. Parnell could ride Trump’s coattails to victory—if Trump can carry the district. The 17th district has voted slightly to the right of the state in each presidential election since 2000, but Wolf and Casey outperformed their statewide totals in the district in 2018. In a reality once inconceivable, riverfront industrial towns have trended right, but leftward movement in white-collar suburbia could spoil GOP chances.

Even if Lamb is re-elected, the GOP should look forward to the upcoming decennial redistricting process. Pennsylvania will lose a seat, and the successor to the underpopulated, Pittsburgh-based 18th will need to add significant territory. A court will likely draw the 2022 map using the current court map—which prioritized minimizing county splits—as a framework. Any expansion of Doyle’s seat within Allegheny County would remove several strongly Democratic municipalities from the 17th; the district would push further into blood-red Butler County, resulting in a several point PVI boost in favor of Republicans.