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A tropical depression has formed in the Bay of Bengal and is forecast to pose a threat of flooding in parts of eastern India and Bangladesh through this weekend.

Infrared satellite imagery shows deep thunderstorms near a low-level center of circulation about 235 miles south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.

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Satellite analysis from UW-CIMSS suggests despite the convection and low-level center, there may be some wind shear trying to push some of the convection north of the center.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL8_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL8_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL8_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Infrared Satellite Image: Bay of Bengal (The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the dark red and pink colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone. ) (The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the dark red and pink colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone. )

Despite that, according to the India Meteorological Department, the depression is likely to strengthen into a deep depression or even Cyclonic Storm Nada - the next name in the North Indian Ocean Basin list - in the next day or so, thanks in part to an ample supply of warm water in the Bay of Bengal.

Forecast

Here is the latest thinking on the track, intensity and potential impacts.

The cyclone should eventually bend northeastward later this week, just off the coast of eastern India.

A weekend landfall in Bangladesh as the equivalent of a tropical storm, or depression seems most likely.

Assuming the system does gain some strength, at least some storm surge flooding is expected along the Bangladesh and eastern India coast.

A band of heavy rain has already formed to the north and northeast of the system, and will spread toward the east Indian coast and Bangladesh.

Rainfall flooding, particularly in urban/poor drainage areas, is likely regardless of the future intensity of this system.

(FORECAST: Kolkata | Dhaka | Chittagong )

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL39_1280x720.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL39_1280x720.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL39_1280x720.jpg 800w" > Potential Rainfall Through Saturday (Locally heavier amounts in tropical cyclones may occur where bands of rain stall or repeatedly move over the same area, producing rainfall rates well over 1 inch per hour.) (Locally heavier amounts in tropical cyclones may occur where bands of rain stall or repeatedly move over the same area, producing rainfall rates well over 1 inch per hour.)

Why Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones Are So Dangerous

The world's deadliest tropical cyclones have occurred along the coast of the Bay of Bengal.

Topping that list was the Nov. 11, 1970 "Bhola Cyclone," which claimed at least 300,000 lives in what is now the low-lying delta of Bangladesh.

More recently, Tropical Cyclone Nargis swamped Myanmar's Irrawaddy Delta in 2008, killing at least 130,000.

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The prime meteorological reason for the high death tolls is the bay's vulnerability to storm surge, the pile of water driven into the coast by a tropical cyclone's winds.

Meteorologist Chris Dolce laid out all the factors behind deadly Bay of Bengal storm surges in a 2014 piece , including the shallow bathymetry and narrowing of the Bay of Bengal off Bangladesh, its very high tides, numerous small inlets and sea-level rise due to climate change.

Much of southern Bangladesh sits at less than 7 meters (about 23 feet) above sea level.

Then, there's the population in play in those low elevations. Bangladesh is the most densely populated large country in the world, with 1,237 people per square kilometer, according to a 2015 World Bank estimate . This is over 35 times the population density of the United States.

If adequate warning is ignored or doesn't reach those in vulnerable, low-lying areas, or if adequate shelter isn't available, even a 5- to 10-foot storm surge is capable of significant loss of life.

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This is why any tropical cyclone in this area needs to be monitored closely.

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this tropical cyclone.

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