I’m writing on behalf of six other leaders of large academic health systems in some of America’s Covid-19 “hot spots” to urge our national leadership to resist pressure to lift tough social restrictions intended to subdue this outbreak and save thousands of lives.

While some say the economic damage of these measures will cause more harm than the disease itself, these steps will actually ensure our economic health, since commerce cannot thrive until we have substantially contained the virus.

If we waver in our commitment to the public health, the consequences will devastate our families, friends, co-workers and neighbors, medically and financially.

The statistical modeling of the viral spread is highly predictable, locally and globally, as the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus map shows. Each of us has run best- and worst-case scenarios based upon the number of infected patients we have, the doubling time of viral spread, and the predicted number of patients who will be admitted to hospitals and require an intensive care unit and a ventilator. For example, if today we have 25 Covid-19 patients in the hospital, with two in intensive care and one on a ventilator, the model predicts that with a three-day doubling rate, there will be a surge of about 800 I.C.U. patients in 30 days.