The strong centralizing dynamic now at work in federal politics turns each prime minister into the only trophy worth bagging – and the one thing that is to be defended at all costs.

In politics, there is nothing more frustrating for a team member than watching a leader publicly fumble with a problem.

Whether it be the Conservatives struggling to shake Mike Duffy’s imprint during the last government, or Justin Trudeau’s top table being crushed by the weight of the SNC-Lavalin scandal during this one, the impotence a partial observer feels while witnessing a familial car crash is both utter and complete. All the bystander can do is grin and bear it (and avoid microphones).

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Because when scandal strikes, it’s not the average backbencher or even trusted Cabinet minister who is tapped to craft the response; it’s the prime minister’s aides. If you’re not in that small circle, you’re not getting much of a say in how the government defends itself. Which is a shame really, seeing as the prime minister’s unelected advisers aren’t part of the government, or on the hook when the next election comes around.

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The strong centralizing dynamic now turns each prime minister into the only trophy worth bagging and the one thing that is to be defended at all costs. And because so much of our politics is now focused on the leader, any public stumble quickly turns into a test of confidence. Not only with the broader public, but also within the party itself. Does our leader have what it takes to do the job?

Because so much of our politics is now focused on the leader, any public stumble quickly turns into a test of confidence. Not only with the broader public, but also within the party itself. Does our leader have what it takes to do the job?

In Trudeau’s case with respect to SNC, the answer was clearly “no,” at least for Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. The extreme volume of news coverage the two ministers generated upon their exit is a testament to the rarity of independent thought and principle in modern Ottawa. But they were ultimately the exception that proves the rule. The deafening silence from the remainder of the Trudeaubots in Cabinet ensured Trudeau’s survival through his worst episode in government.

Which isn’t to say all wounds have been healed. The Liberal cabinet and backbench now have a fuller measure of their man and it’s not quite as rosy as the picture they were sold in 2015. Everyone saddling up for battle this fall now knows the score.

And right now that score is roughly tied. Some polls have the Liberals ahead, with others showing a Tory lead. But the one area that has moved is personal-approval rating. Trudeau now polls below his party, something that is dangerous for a top-heavy movement. Even worse, Trudeau is now bleeding female support to other progressive options, which probably explains the months-long Liberal push on abortion.

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Photo by Chris Wattie / REUTERS

The reported return of top Trudeau adviser Gerry Butts is meant to calm these restive Liberal seas. By once again focusing on Trudeau’s promise, the Liberals seek to avert a focus on Trudeau’s record. But drafting his reputed Svengali back into the movement is an admission from Trudeau that the “government by Cabinet” he promised as a break to the Stephen Harper years never came to pass. If the Liberals are going to get re-elected, they are going to do it by doubling down on their leader.

For their part, the Conservatives are facing the opposite problem. They’re going into battle with an unknown leader whose one test of mettle was narrowly seeing off Mad Max Bernier in the 13th round of the 2017 Conservative leadership contest. We’re two years into the Andrew Scheer era and we still don’t really know what’s on offer.

More to the immediate point, Scheer has never been the leader of a national campaign. How will rank-and-file Conservatives react when Scheer gets kicked in the slats and fumbles the response, as will inevitably happen? The lack of public griping from Tories during the rocky 2015 campaign was a testament to the universal respect for Harper in the Conservative movement. Scheer has yet to earn that trust or respect.

And while it’s true Trudeau had nothing much going for him in the summer of 2015 — Tom Mulcair was all the rage, remember — he did have tremendous name recognition. Trudeau was also fighting against a very tired government. Scheer has none of these things.

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The one thing binding all Conservatives is their antipathy toward Trudeau. The entire team will be united in their desire to oust a man they see as a lightweight and blight on Canada’s reputation. The trick will be to keep that negative bondo out of public view. Team Trudeau will be on the lookout for every smidgen of Trumpiness in its opponents, and will offer it up to a willing press corps if given the chance.

One answer would be to arm Scheer with some interesting and positive policy. A platform thick with substance could give the Conservatives the belief they need to avoid a personality contest and get their untested and unknown man over the line.

Andrew MacDougall is a London-based communications consultant and ex-director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.

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