College Basketball Bubble Watch By Eamonn Brennan | ESPN.com Email



Scarcity of mid-major teams has changed the bubble's shape

When it comes to getting in the NCAA tournament, power-conference teams always have the upper hand.

The selection committee insists it ignores conference affiliation when selecting teams, and there's no reason not to believe that; its members hail from all walks of college hoops life. Still, being a decent team in a power league means annually guaranteed opportunities against tourney competition -- an undeniable, deep-seated structural advantage most mid-majors simply don't enjoy. The mid-major teams' margin for error is always narrower. Throw in the exposure big schools get on television and the inequity of nonconference scheduling, and of course it's hard out here for a mid. It would almost be weird if it wasn't.

This has always been the case. In recent years, though, the trend has accelerated, the product of a modern conference realignment that hoovered quality mid-majors like Butler, Creighton, and VCU into larger leagues and, farther down the line, made it harder for those who stayed -- the Wichita States and Valparaisos of the world -- to prove themselves after December.

In the past couple weeks, you've likely heard that the 2017 NCAA tournament is going to be glutted with mediocre power-league teams. It will be. This is why, but it's not the whole answer.

The other reason? Lots of leagues just aren't that good.

The Mountain West is a good example. From 2009-10 to 2014-15, the MWC grabbed 18 NCAA tournament bids. Seven of those teams were No. 5 seeds or higher. During that span, the Mountain West was frequently the equal -- and sometimes the superior -- of the Pac-10 and/or 12. Now look: Nevada and Boise State are the only two teams who are in the tournament conversation, and neither would be an at-large selection if the tournament was seeded today.

Or look at the American. Cincinnati and SMU are excellent, yes. But Memphis? One-time powerhouse Connecticut? Temple? Barring a late push from Houston or a surprise tournament outcome, the American will be a two-bid league. The same looks likely of the Atlantic 10, where Rhode Island is the only team with a real chance to join Dayton and VCU on the bubble before the end of the regular season.

The Mountain West, American and A-10 aren't mid-majors by any stretch. Their members spend too much money on sports (on average, anyway) to earn that distinction. But they aren't power-conference leagues, either. They're somewhere in between -- and, theoretically, they should be sending a healthy chunk of teams to the NCAA tournament. Or, at the very least, onto the bubble.

They aren't. So, sure, if you want to blame realignment for Georgetown's ongoing proximity to the bubble, by all means do it. But don't overlook the tweeners, who -- at least this season -- simply aren't pulling their weight.