Today is October 31. For months, it has been said that the fortunes of the Conservative Party rested on this day. Jacob Rees-Mogg said back in June that if we had not left the EU today then “there will be no Conservative Party left”.

But instead we are set for an election — pushed for by the Conservative Party — with the UK still in the European Union. And the importance of today’s date is an open question rather than an established fact.

On the surface, the new polling I have conducted paints a worrying picture for the Conservatives. When asked to choose how they feel about the UK no longer leaving the European Union on October 31 and an extension having been agreed to