Five reasons the L.A. Chargers (7-6) will beat the Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) on Saturday night (5:25 p.m., Pacific) at Arrowhead Stadium.

Quarterbacking. Philip Rivers is creating big plays for his team yet also protecting the ball better than he ever has. The San Diegan is playing like an MVP contender, while his most-targeted receiver, Keenan Allen, is earning consideration for the league’s comeback player of the year award.

Outlier health. The Chargers* are perhaps the healthiest team in the NFL and continue to see other playoff contenders lose good or great players.

Air control. L.A. has developed a speedy, varied pass defense that has blunted or shut down several opponents. The rush creates pressure without blitzing, and when slot corner Desmond King blitzes, several opponents have failed to block him. Designs that use six defensive backs have become a Chargers* staple. Under new coordinator Gus Bradley, the defense is among the NFL leaders in several categories: second in fewest net yards allowed per pass attempt, third in fewest passing yards allowed and third in interceptions. Getting more pass defenders on the field, Bradley also is using seven backs at once.


Less heat. Kansas City’s pass rush, a staple to several recent Chiefs victories in this AFC West rivalry, has waned this year. Even in the Week 3 win over the Chargers* at Carson, the unit struggled to pressure Rivers.

Smarter this time. The absence of All-Pro safety Eric Berry, whose season ended in Week 1 due to injury, is an opportunity for Chargers* tight ends Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates. Both are capable of converting on third down and in the red zone.

Of course, the same opportunity existed in the Week 3 contest, when L.A. inexplicably never targeted Henry. Since then, Henry has become a big part of the pass offense. Along with Gates, who was given extra rest last week, the third-year tight end looms as tough matchup for Berry’s replacements.

Elsewhere: 5 reasons the K.C. Chiefs will beat the L.A. Chargers*.


Tom.Krasovic@SDUnionTribune.com; Twitter: SDUTKrasovic