Editor’s note: Last of a three-part series looking at the Rockies, what went wrong this year, and their future. Today: costly free-agent signings.

Before we get to the part about burning the village in order to save it, we asked Dan Szymborski to say something nice. To offer up something that Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich has done, you know … right.

“They’re a very good organization in the minor leagues,” replied Szymborski, a FanGraphs senior writer and creator of the ZiPS system, which projects future performance. “He was excellent at that job.”

That job being the Rockies’ senior director of player development, a gig Bridich held from 2011-14 before ascending to the throne.

“They developed so much talent in their system: (Nolan) Arendado, (Charlie) Blackmon, (Trevor) Story,” Szymborski continued. “That’s supposed to be the hard part. They did the hard part. Now the hard part is just finding actually average players to put around them. That’s supposed to be the easy part.”

And, just like that, out come the torches.

“It’s just bewildering how (you present) that Daniel Murphy contract when D.J. LeMahieu got away for exactly the same price,” said author Jay Jaffe, another senior FanGraphs writer. “Obviously, Ian Desmond has been a disaster. They had some success with Mark Reynolds, I guess.”

“I think they know what to shop for,” added Kyle Glaser, national writer at Baseball America. “They weren’t wrong to shop for relievers — they needed relievers. Those relievers were good pitchers with track records. They didn’t diagnose the problems incorrectly. They just paid more than history says is wise.”

“In a lot of ways,” Szymborski noted, “they’re like a good 1985 front office.”

Burn, baby. Burn. Burn. Burn.

“Free agency and the Rockies have been a mess,” Szymborksi said. “It’s not like the team hasn’t spent money. They’ve just done a terrible job with secondary talent.”

“Maybe a C-minus”

Since the end of the 2016 season, the Rockies front office has invested, according to Baseball-Reference.com, $154.91 million in salary toward 13 veterans on the free-agent market — the supporting pieces, complements to the Arenado-Blackmon-Story core.

According to Baseball Reference, the club received -5.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), total, in return for those investments — meaning that a minor-leaguer or journeyman would’ve performed, in theory, just as well, and for far less money.

Which is shorthand for how a team with four all-stars this summer could also somehow still lose 91 games and finish just a game out of the National League West basement. And how a top-heavy roster expected to contend sank like a stone instead.

If pressed into giving a letter grade, Glaser said he’d tag Bridich with a “C” for his swings in the free-agent cage, despite a number of high-profile misses, most notably a five-year, $70 million contract for Desmond, a former All-Star shortstop and outfielder whose conversion to first base never took. Which then started a domino effect that necessitated throwing the dice — and dollars — at Murphy (two years, $24 million) and what-the-heck flyers on veterans such as Reynolds and Yonder Alonso.

The hand-wringing usually starts there — or with the $85.5 million in salaries from 2017-2019 allocated toward five veteran relievers: Mike Dunn ($18 million), Greg Holland ($6 million), Wade Davis ($34 million), Bryan Shaw ($16 million) and Jake McGee ($15.5 million).

Combined return on those arms: 0.4 WAR. Just when you think you’ve got a hole plugged, another two or three start to leak.

“Making an effort to upgrade the bullpen was a good idea,” Jaffe noted. “I’m just not sure I would’ve put my eggs in those particular baskets. The concern about Wade Davis, especially — fact that the Cubs didn’t want to retain him would seem, to me, to be like a red flag.”

“The thing about relievers is, unless you’re Mariano Rivera,” Szymborski added, “they tend to have a very short shelf life.”

Davis, 2018: 43 saves, a 4.13 ERA, .185 opponent batting average.

Davis, 2019: 15 saves, 8.65, .291.

“Maybe a C-minus,” Glaser amended. “I give them credit for identifying their holes — there are some teams that just completely misidentify what their problems are in the first place. Those are the ones I give ‘Fs’ to.

“I don’t think Bridich and the Rockies staff were wrong to identify relievers and (seek) improvement by attacking it aggressively. I think where the ‘C’ grade comes in concerns the dollars that they (spent).”

Expensive mistakes

In Bridich’s defense, observers also feel the franchise is pinned by a conundrum that sometimes forces them to overpay above market value: Coors Field, which drew nearly 3 million fans, the fourth-most in the National League, also repels a lot of top free-agent pitchers from ultimately landing in Denver. Mile-High perceptions — once a launch pad, always a launch pad — can be awfully hard to shake.



“The Rockies certainly have challenges in attracting certain free-agent pitchers there,” said agent B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports Management, whose clientele includes arms such as Chris Sale, Mike Minor, Charlie Morton and Davis. “Whether one believes it is a myth or not, there is certainly no getting around the offensive and pitching performances in a season-long snapshot.

“I think it depends on the pitcher and the situation … some pitchers have had success at Coors, and the Denver community is certainly attractive to some families. I think it’s really a case-by-case basis, depending on what is important to a player and his family.”

While Rockies manager Bud Black, who pitched for 15 seasons in the big leagues, is still regarded as a pitching savant, the team’s ERA of 5.56 this year was the franchise’s highest since 2004 (5.54) and the third-highest in club history behind 1996 (5.59) and 1999 (6.01). Related Articles Saunders: Rockies’ 2020 report card sums up confounding, disappointing season

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“Whether it’s downstairs with coaches, we’re always talking players, or upstairs, in the offseason, talking to Jeff or (owner) Dick (Monfort) and our baseball ops,” Black said. “We’re talking players all the time. From all of our experience, all the things that we have to go through, it’s measured and processed.”

Abbott said the Rockies front office is “highly respected” among agents and viewed as “an organization that wants to win … they have shown a commitment to sign their home-grown players to long-term deals and they have made concerted efforts to sign some of the best free agents in the game over the last five years. Ownership seems deeply committed to the fan base.”

And just as committed to Bridich, despite the mounting pile of free-agent misfires.

“They don’t walk away from their mistakes,” Szymborski said. “You could’ve had Ryan McMahon at first and LeMahieu at second and have a better team.

“Moving Desmond to center field … I know he’s a popular guy, he’s well-liked, but it’s kind of indicative of what the Rockies are. I don’t see a willingness to change. I think it’s a general problem with the Rockies’ organization as a whole, from top to bottom.

“I think you need a complete remaking of the organization. I think you need an organization that’s willing to break conventional rules of how things are done in baseball. You need ownership that’s supportive and willing to spend when the time is right. You also need ownership that’s supportive of doing things differently. Ownership’s plan to get things better has to be about more than just loyalty.”

Rox Free Agency in the Jeff Bridich Era

From October 2014 to present:

2014-15 Player, Position Salary Paid bWAR Daniel Descalso, IF $3.6 M 0.0 Comment: Hit a career-worst .205 in 2015. Nick Hundley, C $6.25 M 2.0 Comment: Posted .785 OPS over two Rox seasons but threw out just 26.1 percent of base-runners. Kyle Kendrick, SP $5.5 M -0.7 Comment: Opening Day starter in 2015 gave up 33 HRs that season. 2015-16 Jason Motte, RP $5.0 M 0.0 Comment: Killer beard. Bum rotator cuff. Chad Qualls, RP $6.0 M -0.1 Comment: A veteran bullpen workhorse that didn’t work out — something that would become a recurring theme. Mark Reynolds, 1B $4.1 M 2.3 Comment: First tour of duty showed the stick still had some life left. Gerardo Parra, OF $26.0 M -1.5 Comment: Coors Field didn’t do much for his once-stellar defensive rep. Or, curiously, his offense. Ryan Raburn, OF $1.5 M -0.6 Comment: Alas, the ship — and bat — had already sailed. 2016-17 Ian Desmond, 1B/OF $45.0 M -3.4 Comment: A questionable idea that only looked worse in hindsight. Mike Dunn, RP $18.0 M 0.0 Comment: Woof. Alexi Amarita, IF/UT $1.1 M -1.4 Comment: A career .515 OPS at Coors takes some … doing. Greg Holland, RP $6.0 M 1.5 Comment: In hindsight, the better signing of the two former Royals bullpen aces (see Davis, Wade). Ryan Hanigan, C $1.25 M 0.0 Comment: Serviceable backup — but by age 36, was running out of steam. 2017-18 Chris Iannetta, C $7.75 M -0.8 Comment: Not every reunion sticks the landing. Bryan Shaw, RP $16.0 M -0.5 Comment: Coors might’ve broken him. Wade Davis, RP $34.0 M -0.2 Comment: Ditto. Jake McGee, RP $15.5 M -0.4 Comment: Ditto X 2. Matt Holliday, OF $0.114 M 0.1 Comment: We’ll always have ‘07. 2018-19 Daniel Murphy, 1B $10.0 M* 0.2* Comment: Debut season doomed by injuries and a stone glove. Mark Reynolds, 1B $1.0 M* -1.0* Comment: See Iannetta, Chris. Yonder Alonso, 1B $0.206 M* 0.1* Comment: Likely the best defensive option at first base. By default. TOTALS OVER 5 SEASONS $213.87 M -4.4 WAR

Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, Spotrac.com

* as of September 26

Rox Free Agency Spending by Position

From October 2014 to present:

Position $ Invested bWAR Starting Pitching $5.5 M -0.7 Relief Pitching $100.5 M 0.3 Catcher $15.25 M 1.2 First Base $60.306 M -1.8 IF/Utility $4.7 M -1.4 Outfield $27.614 M -2.0 TOTALS OVER 5 SEASONS $213.87 M -4.4 WAR

Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, Spotrac.com