Article content continued

When Modi met Stephen Harper in Ottawa in 2015, he pledged a “road map” for a free trade agreement within six months. But there remain stubborn impediments to progress, not least the Indian desire to secure labour mobility for their millions of cost-competitive white-collar workers – a problem for any Canadian government, given recent controversies over temporary foreign workers. One more round of negotiations will be completed on talks that opened in 2010, so anything is possible. But the relationship has long under-delivered and few people expect a break-through will be made next month.

Third, Modi is unlikely to be any more receptive than the Chinese or Japanese to Trudeau’s insistence on imposing the Liberal agenda in areas where the domestic circumstance makes reform problematic.

Is it a courtesy call or is it truly about kick-starting a legitimate trade discussion? Goldy Hyder

Goldy Hyder, the Indian-born chief executive of Hill & Knowlton Strategies Canada, said it makes sense for Trudeau to hedge his bets by travelling to India, thus sending the signal to the Americans that Canada is moving on.

But, he said Trudeau cannot repeat the Chinese experience of lecturing the Indians about human rights in their own country. “We need them more than they need us,” he said. “The world’s at their door.”

Fourth, as The Economist pointed out in a lengthy essay last week, while enthusiasm for India is boundless, the returns have fallen short of the hype. Report after report points to 300-400 million Indians in the ranks of the global middle class, yet relatively few have money to spend. The Chinese own five times as many motor vehicles per head; 97 per cent of Indians have never flown; mean GDP per head is just US$1,700, with 80 per cent of the population earning less than that. The conclusion: those relying on India becoming the next consumer pivot are likely to be disappointed.