opinion

Amazon, Nashville and the costs of growth

On the spectrum of pipe dream to shoo-in, I give Nashville a 50-50 chance to land the second Amazon headquarters.

The tech and retail giant plans to build an 8.1-million square foot campus and create 50,000 high-wage jobs. It's an exciting opportunity in many ways but also worrisome for people already concerned about the rising cost of living and traffic congestion.

Last year, prognosticators considered Nashville a long shot to get any serious consideration, but Music City has several assets that make it attractive to Jeff Bezos' company.

Moreover, Music City has defied the odds before. Consider that Nashville was not even a top contender for a Major League Soccer team last summer and by December, it was the only city to earn an MLS expansion team.

On Thursday, the city defied the odds again by making it on Amazon's Top 20 list to compete with peer cities such as Austin and Columbus, Ohio, but also against "super star" cities including Chicago, Los Angeles and New York.

► Read More: Nashville seen as dark horse contender for Amazon HQ2

Middle Tennessee has some serious drawbacks that put it at a competitive disadvantage to other regions, but before going into the pros and cons, it is important to tackle the issue that is creating the most excitement and angst: Growth.

Nashville is changing rapidly. It is getting more expensive to afford. It is becoming a city that is unrecognizable to many longtime and native residents because of how fast the region is growing — about 75 people a day.

Throughout my reporting and writing of the 2017 yearlong "Cost of Growth and Change in Nashville" series about affordable housing and quality of life, this tension of the "old" versus the "new" Nashville became a constant theme.

I have read numerous comments on social media that call for curbing or ending the rapid growth in Nashville.

There is only a binary track for Nashville or any other city in its position: Grow or decline.

► Read More: Affordable housing in Nashville? Not in the short term

► Read More: In quest for Amazon, some Nashvillians say no thanks

That said, growth does not have to be exclusionary. Prosperity and opportunity can be inclusive as long as local leaders, decision makers and vocal, engaged citizens are intentional about it.

If Nashville becomes solely a playground for the affluent and tourists, it will lose its soul.

On Friday the Brookings Institution published an article called: "Which metros have enough housing capacity to absorb Amazon’s HQ2?"

Nashville was placed into a squishy middle area called "recently gentrifying."

"Many residents of these metros are already struggling with higher housing costs – and are pushing back against perceived gentrifiers. Amazon’s new HQ would make noticeable ripples in the largest cities; for smaller metros, the effect could be more like a tidal wave," wrote author Jenny Schuetz.

So, here is how Nashville meets Amazon's requirements:

A metropolitan area population that exceeds 1 million

A stable and business-friendly environment with relatively low taxes (while Nashville's sales tax is high, there is no state earned income tax)

Proximity to population centers: i.e., Nashville, Franklin and Murfreesboro; to Nashville International Airport; and to major highways

However, Nashville falls short in two areas:

No comprehensive mass transit system

The number of qualified workers to fill the 50,000 tech jobs

Even if a proposed mass transit referendum makes to the May 1 ballot and is passed, it would not be built out for another 14 years.

At the same time, congestion, while frustrating for locals, pales in comparisons with other metros.

A recently released survey by the traffic navigation app Waze showed driver satisfaction in Nashville far exceeded that of cities such as Los Angeles.

► Read More: The best and worst places to drive

► Read More: 5 reasons Nashville will land the Amazon HQ (and 2 reasons why it won't)

As for workforce challenges, leaders in top Tennessee industries of health care, advanced automotive manufacturing and information technology have consistently said they have trouble filling high-skilled positions.

While Tennessee has made great strides in career technical education over the last few years, Amazon may have to hire from the outside, putting more upward pressure on traffic congestion and housing costs.

That said, compared with the majority of the cities on the list, Nashville is on the lower end of cost of living.

It is all relative — to locals and to the company.

If Amazon chooses Nashville, there will be all sorts of opportunities that open, and more challenges to address, involving the widening gap of prosperity and inequality. In other words, as wealth grows, so likely will the poverty, homelessness and challenges to public safety.

Growth is essential and important for a thriving city, but growth is also costly.

David Plazas is the director of opinion and engagement for the USA TODAY NETWORK – Tennessee and opinion and engagement editor for The Tennessean. Call him at (615) 259-8063, email him at dplazas@tennessean.com or tweet to him at @davidplazas.