Regular readers are familiar with Pythagenpat Records, and using them to see how much of an outlier teams are in a given season.

You can read the link for background information, but here is the quick summary.

The Texans have scored 161 points and allowed 188 in 9 games this year. We use this formula to determine the appropriate exponent for Texans games:

(Points Scored + Points Allowed)/(Games Played)^0.251

This helps to control for things like pace of games, and scoring frequency. For Houston, that exponent is 2.50. Then, we use that to calculate the team’s Pythagenpat Record using this formula:

(Points Scored ^ 2.50) / (Points Scored ^ 2.50 + Points Allowed ^ 2.50)

For the Texans, that translates to a 0.404 winning percentage. In reality, at 6-3, Houston has a 0.667 winning percentage, so the Texans have exceeded expectations by 0.263. That’s the most in the NFL this year, with Oakland (0.563 Pythagenpat, 0.778 actual, 0.215 difference), the Giants (0.493, 0.667, 0.174), Kansas City (0.624, 0.778, 0.154) and Dallas (0.750, 0.889, 0.139) rounding out the top five.

So is Houston the worst 6-3 team ever? The beauty of using Pythagnepat records is we need not limit ourselves to just 6-3 teams; we can ask whether Houston has overachieved by the most of any team through nine games. Let’s look at all teams from 1950 to 2015. Here are the biggest overachievers through nine games:

Rk Team Year Points Points Allowed Pythag Act Diff 1 OAK 1976 195 184 0.537 0.889 0.352 2 IND 2006 249 189 0.675 1.000 0.325 3 NOR 1973 100 217 0.131 0.444 0.314 4 CAR 2015 255 175 0.730 1.000 0.270 5 IND 1992 99 186 0.182 0.444 0.262 6 SDG 1987 192 155 0.631 0.889 0.258 7 CIN 1986 209 239 0.412 0.667 0.255 8 PIT 1989 123 220 0.190 0.444 0.254 9 DEN 1992 148 170 0.416 0.667 0.251 10 SFO 1990 222 144 0.750 1.000 0.250 11 PHI 1952 171 195 0.418 0.667 0.249 12 NYJ 2013 169 231 0.308 0.556 0.248 13 ATL 2004 194 184 0.534 0.778 0.244 14 CHI 1991 147 138 0.538 0.778 0.240 15 MIN 2000 217 204 0.540 0.778 0.237 16 WAS 1951 132 224 0.209 0.444 0.235 17 CHI 1968 167 222 0.325 0.556 0.231 18 TAM 2010 188 206 0.441 0.667 0.225 19 CAR 2003 178 163 0.555 0.778 0.223 20 ARI 2014 223 170 0.668 0.889 0.221 21 RAI 1982 260 200 0.669 0.889 0.220 22 PHI 1960 242 185 0.670 0.889 0.219 23 GNB 1970 153 200 0.338 0.556 0.218 24 IND 2012 186 201 0.450 0.667 0.216 25 SFO 1958 161 256 0.229 0.444 0.216 26 PIT 1962 203 259 0.342 0.556 0.214 27 JAX 2004 151 163 0.454 0.667 0.213 28 JAX 2010 196 250 0.343 0.556 0.212 29 TEN 1999 190 171 0.566 0.778 0.212 30 NWE 1984 195 209 0.455 0.667 0.212 31 SFO 2001 227 204 0.570 0.778 0.208 32 NYG 1965 146 230 0.239 0.444 0.206 33 ARI 1998 154 197 0.350 0.556 0.205 34 WAS 1962 201 213 0.462 0.667 0.204 35 DEN 1979 137 146 0.462 0.667 0.204 36 SFO 2006 162 251 0.242 0.444 0.203 37 WAS 2001 128 203 0.242 0.444 0.202 38 DEN 2007 153 238 0.243 0.444 0.202 39 NYG 1977 111 178 0.245 0.444 0.200 40 SEA 2006 189 199 0.467 0.667 0.200 41.5 KAN 1993 164 144 0.578 0.778 0.200 41.5 RAM 1986 164 144 0.578 0.778 0.200 43 BUF 1983 173 182 0.468 0.667 0.199 44 DET 1991 175 184 0.468 0.667 0.198 45 DAL 1970 146 185 0.358 0.556 0.198 46 MIN 1983 215 225 0.470 0.667 0.197 47 RAM 1969 252 146 0.804 1.000 0.196 48 KAN 2011 141 218 0.250 0.444 0.195 49 PHI 2003 159 166 0.474 0.667 0.193 50 STL 1982 135 170 0.364 0.556 0.192 51 NOR 2009 331 197 0.809 1.000 0.191 52 DEN 1968 147 224 0.255 0.444 0.189 53 NWE 1971 150 228 0.255 0.444 0.189 54 CHI 1962 173 214 0.367 0.556 0.189 55 STL 1975 216 188 0.589 0.778 0.189 56 MIA 1999 192 166 0.591 0.778 0.187 57 IND 2009 252 142 0.815 1.000 0.185 58 DAL 1961 141 214 0.259 0.444 0.185 59 CLE 1976 175 215 0.370 0.556 0.185 60 NYT 1961 194 237 0.371 0.556 0.185 61 PHI 1995 176 216 0.371 0.556 0.185 62 MIA 2001 180 185 0.483 0.667 0.184 63 WAS 1986 212 183 0.594 0.778 0.184 64 GNB 2011 320 186 0.816 1.000 0.184 65 PHO 1991 115 177 0.263 0.444 0.182 66 TAM 2011 156 233 0.263 0.444 0.182 67 ATL 1995 193 197 0.487 0.667 0.180 68 BUF 1988 199 139 0.709 0.889 0.180 69 MIN 1997 209 179 0.598 0.778 0.179 70 JAX 2009 181 220 0.376 0.556 0.179 71 TEN 2000 181 125 0.710 0.889 0.179 72 NYJ 1986 244 173 0.711 0.889 0.178 73 CLE 1965 239 205 0.601 0.778 0.177 74 MIN 2005 154 228 0.268 0.444 0.177 75 HOU 1979 203 206 0.490 0.667 0.176 76 DEN 1998 300 169 0.825 1.000 0.175 77 CIN 1975 202 140 0.714 0.889 0.175 78 DET 1953 197 167 0.603 0.778 0.175 79 OAK 1998 156 158 0.492 0.667 0.174 80 BUF 1997 160 194 0.381 0.556 0.174 81 ATL 2012 247 174 0.715 0.889 0.174 82 PHI 1996 211 179 0.604 0.778 0.173 83 NWE 2003 184 155 0.605 0.778 0.173 84 TEN 2008 220 117 0.827 1.000 0.173 85 DAL 1981 214 181 0.607 0.778 0.171 86 NWE 2015 303 169 0.829 1.000 0.171 87 BAL 1978 120 230 0.164 0.333 0.170 88 BUF 1974 191 160 0.609 0.778 0.169 89 NYG 1959 167 139 0.609 0.778 0.168 90 SEA 2010 166 199 0.387 0.556 0.168 91 BUF 1991 267 187 0.722 0.889 0.167 92 WAS 1982 190 128 0.724 0.889 0.164 93 KAN 2013 215 111 0.836 1.000 0.164 94 PHI 1971 88 207 0.114 0.278 0.164 95 DET 1977 110 164 0.281 0.444 0.164 96 BAL 1983 166 197 0.393 0.556 0.162 97 SFO 1967 192 226 0.395 0.556 0.161 98 HOU 1988 215 213 0.506 0.667 0.161 99 NYJ 1976 76 233 0.062 0.222 0.161 100 MIN 1973 189 94 0.840 1.000 0.160

At 0.263 above expectation, Houston would be the 5th biggest overachiever since 1950. And at 0.404, the Texans have the worst Pythagenpat winning percentage of any team to win at least 2/3 of their games through 9 games:

Rk Team Year points points_opp Pythag Act Diff 1 CIN 1986 209 239 0.412 0.667 0.255 2 DEN 1992 148 170 0.416 0.667 0.251 3 PHI 1952 171 195 0.418 0.667 0.249 4 TAM 2010 188 206 0.441 0.667 0.225 5 IND 2012 186 201 0.450 0.667 0.216 6 JAX 2004 151 163 0.454 0.667 0.213 7 NWE 1984 195 209 0.455 0.667 0.212 8 WAS 1962 201 213 0.462 0.667 0.204 9 DEN 1979 137 146 0.462 0.667 0.204 10 SEA 2006 189 199 0.467 0.667 0.200 11 BUF 1983 173 182 0.468 0.667 0.199 12 DET 1991 175 184 0.468 0.667 0.198 13 MIN 1983 215 225 0.470 0.667 0.197 14 PHI 2003 159 166 0.474 0.667 0.193 15 MIA 2001 180 185 0.483 0.667 0.184 16 ATL 1995 193 197 0.487 0.667 0.180 17 HOU 1979 203 206 0.490 0.667 0.176 18 OAK 1998 156 158 0.492 0.667 0.174

So to answer today’s question…. it sure seems like it. Or, at least the worst 6-3 team since the 1936 Steelers.