The NC-03 GOP primary runoff arrives

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Quick Fix

— Republicans will pick their candidate for a special election in NC-03 today, in a primary runoff that turned into a proxy war among Washington Republicans.


— Sen. Elizabeth Warren raised $19.1 million in the second quarter — a major step up from her first-quarter haul, despite the fact she’s shunned big-dollar fundraisers.

— Republican Kris Kobach, the former Kansas secretary of state, announced he was running for Senate and was immediately torched by national Republicans.

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Days until the Mississippi gubernatorial primary election: 28 (At some point I messed this counter up, sorry!)

Days until the NC-03 and NC-09 general elections: 63

Days until the Louisiana gubernatorial primary election: 95

Days until the Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia general elections: 119

Days until the 2020 election: 483

TopLine

JUST SPECIAL — Republican voters are heading to the polls for the second time this year in NC-03 to pick their nominee. Joan Perry, a pediatrician, and Greg Murphy, a state representative and a physician, are squaring off today in a special election primary runoff. The duo emerged from a 17-person (!) primary election in late April after neither cracked 30 percent, the required threshold to avoid a runoff in the state. Murphy had about 23 percent to Perry’s 15 percent in the April primary.

The battle to pick the GOP nominee to replace the late Republican Rep. Walter Jones turned into a proxy war of sorts between different factions of Washington Republicans. Every single House Republican woman — all 13 of them — endorsed Perry, as did Joe Anne Jones, Rep. Jones’ widow. Murphy, meanwhile, picked up the endorsement of Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), chair of the House Freedom Caucus, and the Tea Party Patriots.

“The race sets up as a test of whether GOP primary voters see gender diversity as an important value in the way Democrats did in the 2018 midterms, when voters sent a wave of Democratic women to Congress,” Campaign Pro’s Laura Barrón-López wrote about the race. Meanwhile, “Meadows said the Freedom Caucus’ political apparatus consistently supports women conservatives in races, but in this contest they believe Murphy will be the most loyal to Trump.”

The winner of today’s primary will face Democrat Allen Thomas on Sept. 10 in the special general election. Thomas, the former mayor of Greenville, who won his primary outright in April. The district heavily leans toward Republicans. Jones never faced much of a general election challenge (he did have several close primaries, however), and the district has a PVI of R+12.

Presidential Big Board

THE CASH DASH — Warren showed that a small-dollar machine is not the exclusive domain of Sen. Bernie Sanders. Her campaign announced she raised $19.1 million in the second quarter — more than triple her first-quarter haul, and more than the $18 million Sanders raised. “The eye-popping total is a validation for Warren after months of second-guessing from Washington strategists who questioned the wisdom of publicly vowing not to hold fundraisers or do ‘call time’ with wealthy donors during the primary,” POLITICO’s Alex Thompson wrote. Alex reported that she will report $19.7 million cash on hand with a staff of over 300 people. Her campaign has roughly 442,000 cumulative donors.

The haul is the payoff from Warren’s unconventional organization that’s dumped a lot of the traditional trappings of a presidential campaign, Alex reported. The latest sign: The campaign told Alex that it won’t be hiring outside political consults to produce TV and digital ads, avoiding the expensive commission charges, and will instead be producing all of its media content in house, along with placing its own buys internally.

HAPPY TRAILS — California Rep. Eric Swalwell became the first major Democratic presidential candidate to end his campaign. “We have to be honest about our own candidacy and viability,” he said at a press conference in California. He announced he would instead be running for reelection to his CA-15 seat. Standing in his way to reelection in the safe blue seat? Hayward Councilmember Aisha Wahab (here’s some background on Wahab from The Mercury News’ Casey Tolan from when she announced). Wahab signaled that she wasn’t stepping aside now that Swalwell wants to keep his old job. POLITICO California’s Carla Marinucci and Jeremy White have more on Swalwell’s exit.

THE DEBATE STAGE — The lineup announcement will be televised. CNN will conduct a live drawing on July 18 to determine which night candidates will appear on for the second round of debates on July 30 and 31, per CNN’s Kate Sullivan. The cable network did not announce if or how it’ll divide the field (recall that NBC divided top-tier candidates evenly across the two nights). Some of the uncertainty around the debate has been alleviated with Swalwell’s exit, as well: Right now, 20 candidates qualify for the maximum 20 debate spots.

— Julián Castro announced he had crossed the 130,000 donor threshold for the fall debates. This comes as he significantly ramped up his Facebook ad spending, I wrote in my weekly Facebook ad tracker for Pros.

THE REELECT — President Donald Trump’s team is wading into the battle to lead Pennsylvania’s Republican Party after former chairman Val DiGiorgio resigned under scandal. “The episode set off fierce jockeying and backbiting within the state GOP, as Trump’s team tried to close ranks behind Bernadette “Bernie” Comfort, the party’s vice chairwoman for the past two years,” POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein wrote. “But the Trump campaign's involvement has not gone over well with some Pennsylvania Republicans, especially supporters of Comfort’s rival, attorney Lawrence Tabas. They argue that Trump’s advisers are unnecessarily taking sides in a local feud and could exacerbate longstanding power struggles within the state GOP.”

JUST SUPER — A pro-Sen. Cory Booker PAC is getting ready to spend on his behalf. Dream United, which was founded by San Francisco lawyer Steve Phillips, is launching a voter outreach plan “to reach half a million black voters in four states to persuade them to back the New Jersey senator,” CNN’s Fredreka Schouten reported. The campaign will center on South Carolina, with efforts also in Georgia, Mississippi and Maryland.

THE PROCESS — Some more details about Iowa and Nevada Democrats’ plans for a tele-caucus system, per the AP’s Michelle Price and Thomas Beaumont: “Iowans who register on time will have six times to choose from to participate by phone, including the in-person caucus night, Feb. 3. Nevadans who register for the virtual caucus can participate on Feb. 16 or 17. Unlike Iowa, Nevada is also offering four days of in-person early caucusing to give people more options.”

POLLS POLLS POLLS — This week's update from Morning Consult's 2020 Democratic primary tracking poll (July 1-7, 16,599 Democratic voters, +/- 1 percentage point): Joe Biden, 31 percent (-3 from last week); Sanders, 19 percent (unchanged); Kamala Harris, 14 percent (+4), Warren, 13 percent (unchanged); Pete Buttigieg, 6 percent (unchanged); Beto O'Rourke, 3 percent (unchanged); Booker, 2 percent (-1).

Down the Ballot

THE SENATE MAP — Kobach, fresh off losing the 2018 gubernatorial election in Kansas, is running for the Senate — and national Republicans are not happy about it. “During his announcement, Kobach stood in front of a sign that read ‘Build the Wall’ and touted his record as an immigration hawk and an ally to Trump, with whom he spoke on the topic as recently as last week, he said,” Campaign Pro’s James Arkin reported. Many Washington Republicans railed against Kobach. “Just last year Kris Kobach ran and lost to a Democrat. Now, he wants to do the same and simultaneously put President Trump’s presidency and Senate majority at risk,’ NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said.

— Former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor, who lost his VA-02 seat in 2018 to now Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, announced he would challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in 2020 (The Virginian-Pilot’s Robyn Sidersky has more). Warner welcomed Taylor to the race by announcing he has raised $1.8 million in the second quarter of the year, and has $5.4 million in cash on hand.

— Colorado state Sen. Angela Williams joined the crowded Democratic primary field to challenge GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. She filed paperwork with the FEC on Monday declaring her candidacy and released an introduction video.

THE (DOWNBALLOT) CASH DASH — Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) announced he raised $2.4 million in the second quarter and has $4.7 million in cash on hand. Republican John James is challenging Peters.

— Illinois freshmen Democratic Reps. Sean Casten and Lauren Underwood each raised over $700,000 in the second quarter, the Chicago Tribune’s Lisa Donovan reported.

— Freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose in NY-11 raised $800,000 during the quarter and has $1 million in the bank, Laura reported.

— GOP Rep. Michael McCaul raised over $525,000 in the quarter and will report nearly $700,000 on hand in TX-10. Fellow Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy raised $400,000 and has $654,000 on hand in TX-21, per The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek.

— New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, the political arm of the center-left group, said it raised over $2.1 million for itself and its members in the first half of the year.

— North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham will report raising $520,000 in the second quarter (Cunningham only got into the race on June 17). He also loaned his campaign an additional $200,000.

— Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni, who is running in TX-22 again after narrowly losing to GOP Rep. Pete Olson in 2018, announced he raised $420,000 in the second quarter.

— Democratic state Rep. Jon Hoadley, who is running to challenge GOP Rep. Fred Upton in MI-06, announced he raised $315,000 dollars in the second quarter.

— Democrat Rita Hart, who is running for the open seat in IA-02, announced she raised $278,000 in the second quarter (she was in the race for six weeks), per Iowa Starting Line’s Elizabeth Meyer.

— Republican Mike Garcia, a Navy veteran, announced he raised nearly $250,000 in the second quarter for his bid to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill in CA-25.

— Democrat Marie Newman, who is looking to primary Rep. Dan Lipinski in IL-03, raised $328,000 in the second quarter, per POLITICO Illinois Playbook’s Shia Kapos and Ramsen Shamon.

THE CITIZENSHIP QUESTION — Attorney General Bill Barr said the Trump administration has found a way to get the citizenship question on the 2020 census. “I think over the next day or two you’ll see what approach we’re taking and I think it does provide a pathway for getting the question on the Census,” he told reporters on Monday, per The Post and Courier’s Jessica Holdman. But the fight to add the citizenship question is not one the Trump administration will likely win, POLITICO’s Ted Hesson and Josh Gerstein wrote: “Trump’s continued insistence on adding the citizenship question increases the risk of additional disclosures about the White House’s role in the effort.”

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Salem City Councilmember Lisa Peterson said she’ll run in MA-06, setting up a possible primary with Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton. “It’s clear he’s moved on from the district,” Peterseon said in an interview with The Boston Globe’s Liz Goodwin, citing Moulton’s presidential run.

— Shelia Bryant, an attorney and Marine veteran, said she’ll challenge Democratic Rep. Anthony Brown in MD-04, Maryland Matters’ Josh Kurtz reported.

AD WARS — Ads are going up in the Louisiana gubernatorial race. Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ first ad will air this week, and he’s placed more than $270,000 on TV ad time between now and July 21, Campaign Pro’s Daniel Strauss reported. An RGA-aligned group has also reserved airtime this week.

— A DGA-affiliated group is going up with an ad in Kentucky praising Andy Beshear, the state attorney general and their gubernatorial nominee. Advertising Analytics tracks over $500,000 in spending on the ad over the next month.

THE HOUSE MAP — Chris Cox, a Republican and one of the founders of “Bikers for Trump,” announced he was running in SC-01 to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham.

— Democrat Abbie Hodgson, a former Kansas state House staffer and speechwriter for former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, announced she would challenge freshman GOP Rep. Steve Watkins in KS-02, The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry reported.

— Former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-Ill.) said he’s running across the border for the open seat in IA-02, the Iowa City Press Citizen’s Zachary Oren Smith writes.

— Democrat Carolyn Long, who narrowly lost to GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in 2018, announced she was running again in WA-03. Her campaign said she raised $100,000 in the first six hours of her campaign.

— Democrat Hillary Scholten, an immigration attorney and former Obama-era attorney adviser at the Department of Justice, announced she’s running in MI-03, which is currently represented by now-independent Rep. Justin Amash. Here’s more from The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke.

— Democrat Kate Schroder, a former health care executive, will launch her campaign to challenge GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in OH-01 today, POLITICO Pro’s Dan Diamond reported.

SCAM PAC WATCH — A PAC that raised millions saying it is helping veterans but actually spent almost all of its money on telemarketing, salaries and overhead, is closing its doors. Put Vets First! PAC filed termination papers with the FEC this weekend, The Center for Public Integrity’s Sarah Kleiner reported.

CONSULTANTS’ CORNER — TargetSmart, the Democratic data firm, has hired Ed Niles as director of digital and media.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “It's rough out there. Welcome to the race, Tom.” — Swalwell, when asked what advice he’d give Tom Steyer, who is reconsidering a run.

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