Despite numerous articles, from over a year ago, saying that the cost of FttN would blow out and would take longer than stated, surprise was still expressed when the cost blew out and deadlines were pushed back by years. Credit: Rodolfo Clix, file photo (www.sxc.hu)

Debate over the NBN took on a significant new dimension as the long-awaited Strategic Review finally dropped - and revealed that the NBN will be an extremely expensive undertaking no matter how it's built.

Former NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley extolled the merits of the rollout he oversaw in a landmark speech in which he warned now communications minister Malcolm Turnbull that he should refrain from rewriting the NBN's history, and that he doesn't have a "minute to lose" in firming up future plans for the network. Turnbull responded by calling Quigley the "captain of the Titanic".

Further details of what was called NBN Co's "devastating" assessment of the Coalition government's fibre-to-the-node (FttN) alternative NBN model continued to emerge throughout the month. As well as suggesting that NBN Co would be unable to meet the government's speed promises, the network builder advised incoming communications minister Malcolm Turnbull that the FttN network would compromise revenues so much that he needed to plan and cost an eventual FttP rollout now to justify FttN.

The NBN Co assessment also warned that the FttN model's revenue hit could push the project back onto the federal Budget; warned that building analogue-equivalent voice services on the NBN "may not be sensible"; emphasised the need for the network to be a monopoly; warned that remediating Telstra's copper network could cost four to six times as much as implementing a FttP solution; and noted that FttN would require extensive in-home testing and remediation.

The report also outlined twelve significant challenges that Turnbull would need to meet quickly if it had any hope of meeting its 2019 rollout deadline; recommended that the government rent rather than buy access to Telstra's copper network, causing consternation in an industry concerned about the implications of such a move.

The release of the NBN Co appraisal - which was finally published publicly in December - proved problematic for new NBN Co chair Ziggy Switkowski, who was forced to appear in front of the Senate Select Committee on the NBN to provide updates about the project's schedule and future directions before admitting that it would be "very, very demanding" to make the Coalition deadline. Switkowski backtracked on his earlier comments that the Telstra copper network was at "five minutes to midnight", but conceded that NBN Co has not actually tested FttN technology and confirmed the Coalition's own costings could yet be proved to be wrong.

Turnbull declined the opportunity to retract an inaccurate claim he made about the provenance of the documents, which were corroborated with the release of the government's own Strategic Review in mid December.

Turnbull had maintained a combative stance with the Senate in the leadup to the report's release, refusing to release it upon its initial receipt and subsequently declining to comply with a Senate motion that Turnbull publish it by December 9. In the meantime, Turnbull continued to block efforts to obtain the 'blue book' guidance given him as new communications minster, and pushed for Labor to release a confidential report it had previously commissioned into the network's potential financial model.

Commentators filled the void in the leadup to the review's official release, with some concerned that a VDSL2-based infrastructure would create a monopoly situation and others contemplating the mistakes made on all sides of the debate so far. Others argued that the policy would alienate SMEs, potentially hurting the very small businesses that stand to benefit most from the NBN.

Simon Hackett, a longtime industry figure who now sits on the board of NBN Co, argued that the focus for the NBN should be on passing every premises, while new Labor communications spokesperson Jason Clare argued that the country prefers Labor's NBN model.

Once the document was released, all bets were off. The review - whose main points are summarised here - revealed a "cost blow out" under either NBN model. Turnbull quickly used the report to claim that Labor had wasted $20b building its NBN model, while Switkowski said there was no way to future-proof the NBN but committed himself to bringing down the cost of the rollout.

Meanwhile, some commentators warned that Turnbull's preference for reusing Telstra and Optus HFC networks would produce less than desirable outcomes. HFC's capabilities became a point for discussion as commentators latched onto Hackett's blog spruiking the argument that an HFC network could be upgraded to deliver the Coalition's coverage and performance objectives.

Some read its assessment of the costs as indicating that Labor's FttP model is still cost-effective and viable, while others picked up on the report's claims that the network could be upgraded to 250Mbps by 2025 and 1Gbps with an upgrade to FttP in 2030. Almost as an afterthought, NBN Co's long-evolving special access undertaking (SAU) was approved by competition watchdog the ACCC.

The NBN debate was sidetracked momentarily with concerns that Turnbull's co-ownership of a boat with NBN Co executive JB Rousselot presented a conflict of interest, although Turnbull dismissed the claims and also allowed other NBN Co executives to retain their shareholdings in Telstra. There was great interest in the appointment of Vodafone CEO Bill Morrow as the new head of NBN Co. Morrow's appointment was called "interesting" and his history at Vodafone will be read by many as a gauge of what to expect with the NBN during 2014.

Turnbull made another significant appointment with the decision to have historically anti-NBN economist Henry Ergas serve on the panel that will this year conduct a cost-benefit analysis into the NBN. Also on the agenda this year is a $100m contract dispute between Telstra and NBN Co, which was set for the end of March. And, in a separate issue, underground asset-tracking firm Dial Before You Dig (DYBD) warned that NBN Co had not been informing it where cable was being laid - potentially creating problems if builders aren't aware of the network's presence in their working areas.

All the political noise over the Strategic Review nearly masked the positive news around the NBN, such as the news that the company had quietly switched on 1Gbps download speeds for existing fibre customers. ISP iiNet offered its 25Mbps/5Mbps wireless broadband service to regional Queensland and Tasmanian customers. Figures suggested that Canberra residents were leading the country when it came to NBN takeup rates, while residents of Coffs Harbour, NSW were chosen for a field study to see how their NBN service had changed their lives.

Others were arguing for the importance of training to help Australians tap into the potential of broadband, with businesses flagged as being particularly in need of some broadband education.

Meanwhile, Tasmania became a focal point for the NBN discussion as premier Lara Giddings took on the new federal government for its "secrecy" around the rollout in the state, which would have seen ubiquitous FttP by the end of 2015 under Labor's model but will not, Turnbull made clear, be getting such services under the new government. Rekindled interest in aerial NBN rollouts led some to wonder whether the Coalition was planning to use an aerial rollout to reclaim credit in its $11b Telstra Definitive Agreement and reallocate it towards the purchase of the company's copper network. And, for his part, Turnbull was quick to jump onto the "blistering success" of an apartment-building fibre-to-the-basement (FttB) trial that delivered solid results for in-building broadband services - to just one apartment. While the limited scope of the trial leaves much up in the air, some argued that Labor's refusal to consider FttB models was one of its biggest blind spots - leaving NBN Co vulnerable to rival FttB investments from the likes of TPG and Optus, which was mooted to be considering a cherry-picking move on Australia's most densely-populated multi-dwelling units.

Further reading

Can Turnbull avoid a NBN timetable mishap? (Technology Spectator)

How politics is depriving us of a decent NBN (Lifehacker)

It's time for Turnbull to swallow his NBN pride (ZDNet)

The inconvenient truth for the Coalition's NBN (ABC)

NBN debate in urgent dose of rollout reality (SMH IT Pro)

Please accept my apologies: I was wrong about Malcolm Turnbull (Delimiter)

Politically and functionally, Turnbull's first 100 days have been a disaster (Delimiter 2.0)

Time to scrap the NBN? (Technology Spectator)