To: Vulnerable GOP House Candidates Re: How to Survive in 2016

The following is a memo written and circulated by Liesl Hickey, a former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and obtained by POLITICO.

With the nomination of Donald Trump now official, capping off one of the wildest primary elections in modern history, many of you in swing districts are worriedly wondering, How in the world do I survive this election? It’s unprecedented, unpredictable and the political environment is uncontrollable. The unknowns are, well, unknown, and therefore terrifying. And anyone who is telling you he has the perfect strategy or THE answer to winning is not telling you the truth. However, there are few approaches that might save you even if there is a top-of-the-ticket meltdown this fall.


1. Don’t buy into the Trump voter myths

There is much noise this cycle about the Trump voters, turning them out, not upsetting them or losing them in November. Vulnerable candidates are wringing their hands over this, and they should just stop. First, you do not need to motivate Trump voters to vote—they are voting and it has nothing to do with you and everything to do with Hillary Clinton (take what happened in Cleveland as evidence). Nothing you can say or do will affect this, so don’t waste time, energy or important financial resources on this endeavor.

Also, swing-district polls I’ve seen do not offer evidence that a Trump voter will not vote for a GOP down-ballot candidate if said candidate doesn’t publicly support the GOP nominee. In fact, many incumbents who are not supporting Trump are outperforming our GOP nominee. Your race will be won on the margins and in the middle. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that moderate GOPers, women, minorities and other key groups that you need in order to win in November will think differently about you if you are a Trump endorser/supporter/team player…whatever term you are using to describe your affiliation with Trump. Thinking differently about you doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t end up voting for you, but it makes your persuasion campaign (see points #5 and #6 below) that much more important. Remain focused on your path to victory, expanding your electorate with ticket splitters.

How you position against/for/to the side of Trump is the looming question for everyone. And it’s a big decision that ultimately comes down to a gut call.

You know your voters better than anyone. Make the decision based solely on what your district expects—not what party leaders, consultants or anyone else expects. Whatever position you take, it has got to be authentic. If there is anytime to be absolutely clear, this is it. And if you supported him at one time and no longer can, don’t be scared to say it.

2. Do worry about turning out soft/moderate/“establishment”/disaffected Republicans

You badly need this group to show up in November. You need to remind them: Even though they are fed up and unhappy and feel that the choices at the top of the ticket are abysmal, there are important decisions for them to make underneath the presidential line and they can’t sit this election out. This will take some doing, so commit serious dollars to the effort. An effective ground game is the best way to reach these voters. The easy part is that they are with you. They just need you to show up and tell them that you need them. Face to face is best. Do not rely on party victory efforts to do this for you. Have a plan to reach them yourself.

3. Hillary is an opportunity, but be smart about how you position against her

This is not hard. Be keenly aware of your swing voters’ attitudes on Hillary and address them. No need to go elsewhere—the work is already done for you. So do not question her experience. Do question her integrity. Do not question her skills or brains to be President. Do question her trustworthiness. Do not question her patriotism or love for America. Do question her values. And never question her gender. Do not get sucked into a conservative talk radio vortex of Hillary attacks. Swing voters don’t believe them. Be measured. Be consistent. Remind swing voters that as they reluctantly pull the lever for Hillary, they can continue shopping elsewhere down ballot. Check-and-balance campaigns are hard to run but we are uniquely positioned to run one here. However, telling them Hillary should be in a striped pantsuit will backfire. It’s the exact kind of partisan silliness these voters hate. She is a tremendous asset to you, so don’t blow it.

4. Laser focus on persuadable/undecided voters

Know your persuadable/undecided voters backwards and forwards, and speak to them often. Remember that they aren’t focused on the minute-to-minute machinations of your race. They may remain undecided until October. They are a frustrating bunch, and they are key to your victory. Don’t let anyone tell you they won’t turn out. Assume they will. Persuading this group is of utmost importance (see point #5).

5. Persuasion, persuasion, persuasion

Swing races are all about getting lots of people who aren’t inclined to vote for you to decide to vote for you. The polarization of the country has allowed the political class to forget about the importance of persuasion, but it’s all that matters in your race. All paid media should tell a story about you, a compelling one.

If you use the phrase “message progression” to describe your ad strategy, your ads will reflect it and voters will process it. You’re not sending a message; you are building a story. This story has deep characters (you and your voters) and theme development; a rising action (what struggles your voters face and how you are best to help solve problems); the climax (how you’re different/independent/bipartisan [*see #6] and how you’ve fought for them and been successful); the falling action (your story contrasted with that of your opponent or your response to your opponents attacks); and the conclusion (asking for their vote).

Most campaigns want to skip to the climax, forgetting that the voters don’t trust you yet. They don’t know you and have a hard time believing your proposals, appeals, or record because to them, it’s vacant. The story arc is the most important element in your ad campaign. Testimonials are powerful, but they can’t be telepromptered. And a laundry list of poll-tested Washington speak won’t persuade anyone—not in your district in a tough election environment.

6. Don’t be afraid to break with your party

TV ads running right now parade the words “Bipartisan” or “Independent” across the screen, or they’re spoken repeatedly. But few ads validate these claims with evidence. The effect can seem empty and hollow. You can’t just tell people. You have to SHOW them with concrete details. Breaking with your party and showing how you do it and what it means for your constituents now and in the future is (and there is no other way to put this) super important. This cannot be a half-hearted measure. Be clear that you’re with your party when they are right but against them when they are wrong, and prove it with action. Voters need reassurance that you aren’t what they see as 99% of Washington: a bunch of people who put special interests and party first and voters last. Don’t be scared to say, “I broke with my party on this and here’s why.” Voters know it’s tough to disagree with your team, but breaking with them when you think they are wrong shows you have integrity and you always put your voters first. They’ll never forget that.