DURHAM, N.C. — THE September jobs numbers, finally released this week after the government reopened, indicate that the job market remains on a painfully slow upward trajectory. Unemployment has fallen a full percentage point since early 2012, but at this pace, our economy could still be years away from its prerecession level. To make faster progress, many analysts are banking on job growth from two key sectors, education and health care.

“Ed and meds” have already accounted for a significant share of employment growth over the past several years. More important, these jobs are the only thing keeping many small and midsize American cities from sliding into deeper decline. Several regions are consciously building around these services under the logic that they cannot be outsourced, and local demand will continue to grow. Unfortunately, both assumptions are wrong, and that could mean bad news for many local job markets around the country.

Education and health care jobs are so attractive because unlike manufacturing jobs, which have steadily declined over the last 25 years, they are largely shielded from global competition. As a society we continue to spend large sums of money, both in the public and private sector, on educating our students and caring for the health of our citizens. Since good jobs will increasingly require more education and our population is aging, the long-term outlook for these sectors looks positive. Education and health care also create jobs across income distribution, providing work for home health aides as well as college professors.

However, while the total number of jobs in these sectors could grow, it is not likely that all regions would benefit equally. For example, one might take for granted that there will be growing demand for orthopedic surgeons in Toledo, Ohio, and educational administrators in Iowa City. But the same forces that led other industries to cluster in specific regions (think technology in Silicon Valley or banking in New York) are now sweeping through education and health care.