230-235 House votes for TPP Presented by Semiconductor Industry Association

PREDICTION: 230 TO 235 HOUSE VOTES FOR TPP — That’s the word out west in Seattle, where the Washington Council on International Trade held a day-long conference on Monday to explore how Boeing, Microsoft and many other Washington state exporters would benefit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Chief U.S. agricultural negotiator Darci Vetter briefed the group on the agricultural, labor and environmental provisions of the pact.

“If I were a betting man, I’d say if there were 218 votes in the House for TPA, I think there’s probably somewhere in the range of 230 to 235 votes in the House for TPP, assuming something crazy doesn’t happen,” WCIT President Eric Schinfeld told POLITICO Pro.


Schinfeld said he expected the state’s business community to push hard for approval of the agreement. “Is it a perfect deal? No,” Schinfeld admitted. “But is it a really, really good deal for Washington state businesses? Absolutely … There is no world in which Washington state employers won’t embrace the TPP … We’re 100 percent behind it.”

Three of Washington’s ten-member House delegation - Democratic Reps. Adam Smith, Denny Heck and Jim McDermott - voted against trade promotion authority this summer. But Schinfeld said he believed it would be easier for both Democrats and Republican to support the TPP deal since it offers much more tangible benefits than the TPA bill.

IT’S TUESDAY, NOV. 10! Welcome to Morning Trade, where “something crazy” is our middle name! Like, man, I wish I was in Sheffield, England, where my son’s band Sheer Mag is playing a club called The Lughole tonight. According to its Facebook page, the club is “run by the punks for the punks.” Yep. That sounds just like me. Any other crazy suggestions? Send them to [email protected] or @tradereporter, although I’m kind of lazy on Twitter.

U.S. FOOTWEAR GROUP EAGER FOR TPP TARIFF CUTS: Meanwhile, the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America trade association, which includes companies such as Walmart, Foot Locker and Payless ShoeSource, was also busy on Monday talking up the benefits of the agreement, which it estimated could save importers $450 million in import duties in just the first year and at least $6 billion over 12 years.

Almost all of those savings would come from lower duties on footwear from Vietnam, FDRA President Matt Priest told reporters. Even without the agreement, imports from Vietnam are up 21 percent this year by volume and almost 26 percent by value. Historically, most of those imports have been athletic shoes, reflecting the presence of big U.S. shoe companies like Nike, Adidas and ASICS in Vietnam. But now there’s “also mass footwear being produced there for places like Payless, Walmart and Target,” Priest said.

The industry is hoping newly installed House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady will become a champion for TPP and also looks for support from new House Speaker Paul Ryan, who was instrumental in passing TPA this year, Priest said.

BLUEGREEN ALLIANCE TO SOUND OFF ON PACT - Labor and environmental groups haven’t been shy about criticizing the TPP agreement. But they promise to go into more detail today in a phone call with reporters “to discuss specifically how the trade deal falls short in protecting workers and the environment.” United Steelworkers President Leo Gerard and Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune will join the call hosted by BlueGreen Alliance.

BERGSTEN BACKS TPP CURRENCY PACKAGE: Fred Bergsten, director emeritus of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was one of the most vocal advocates of including enforceable currency provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Now, Bergsten has endorsed the TPP currency side agreement unveiled last week, even though it would not be subject to binding dispute settlement that could lead to trade sanctions.

"While not legally enforceable, the commitments in the declaration are far-reaching in ruling out competitive devaluations and persistent exchange rate misalignments. In addition, the requirements for more transparency and public disclosure of data on exchange rate policies, including currency intervention, should make the 'naming and shaming' of manipulators more effective," Bergsten said in a blog post, which can be read here: http://bit.ly/1MkVuSp

CURRENCY JOB IMPACT SAID TO BE SMALLER NOW: Meanwhile, another Peterson scholar, Joseph Gagnon, said U.S. job losses caused by currency manipulation are not as high now as they were in 2012, when he and Bergsten estimated the United States would have 1 million to 5 million more jobs if currency manipulation were eliminated.

“The effect of currency manipulation on U.S. employment is much smaller today for two reasons,” Gagnon said in a separate blog post. “First, many former manipulators appear to have stopped buying foreign currency assets recently, and some are even selling them (e.g., China). Second, the US economy is getting close to full employment.” To read more, click here: http://bit.ly/1NFVrox

FROMAN REQUESTS ITC STUDY ON TPP: In another sign the White House could send the Trans-Pacific Partnership to Congress next year for a vote, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman has formally requested the International Trade Commission to begin a study of the impact of the trade deal on U.S. economy, consumers and various industrial sectors.

The recently passed trade promotion authority law requires the White House to give details of the deal to the ITC at least 90 days before signing the TPP pact, so the trade panel can prepare an economic impact report that is due 105 days after signing. Under those guidelines, the earliest countries could sign the agreement is in early February, which would set the stage for the ITC to release its report by the second half of May.

An ITC spokeswoman said she had no information on whether the study could be finished quicker than that. Once the commission has formally launched the investigation, it will issue a news release and Federal Register notice outlining the expected schedule, she said. Review the TPA guidelines here: http://bit.ly/1HrStD0

GSP REVIEW FOR MYANMAR BACK UNDERWAY: The Obama administration has resumed consideration of whether to provide trade benefits to Myanmar, also known by its old colonial name of Burma, under the Generalized System of Preferences program, said USTR spokesman Trevor Kincaid in an email to POLITICO Pro.

"With the reauthorization of GSP in June, the USTR-led interagency review of Burma's eligibility for GSP benefits has resumed," Kincaid said in response to a question. "We will announce results when the review has concluded." The exchange with USTR came one day after the country held its first openly contested national election in 25 years. Myanmar's opposition party, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, is predicting victory in the vote.

President Barack Obama is expected to meet with leaders of Southeast Asian nations, including Myanmar, at a regional summit in Malaysia next week. White House spokesman Josh Earnest called Sunday's election "an important step in Burma's democratic reform process," but told reporters he had no policy changes to announce at this time.

The GSP program waives import duties on thousand of goods from developing countries. USTR began a review in 2013 of whether to include Myanmar, but had to suspend that effort when Congress allowed the entire GSP program to lapse that year.

OBAMA EXPECTED TO FACE QUESTIONS IN ASIA: Obama will also be in the Philippines next week for the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where he’s likely to face questions from other TPP leaders about the chances for Congress to pass the trade deal next year, experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said.

One thing Obama could do to allay those concerns is talk to Americans about the importance of Asia to their future before he goes on this trip,” CSIS senior advisor Ernest Bower said. “I think that would be a message that Asia would really hear and ... I think that would check the concern that Asians will likely have about passage of TPP.”

Still, CSIS Senior Vice President for Asia Michael Green appeared to speak for the group when he said Congress was likely to pass the TPP deal this coming spring.

TRADE LAW ARCHITECT JOHN JACKSON DIES AT 83 - World Trade Organization Director General Roberto Azevedo paid tribute on Monday to Georgetown University Law Center Professor John H. Jackson, who died on Saturday at age 83. “He was one of the great scholars of international trade law, and the multilateral trading system was greatly improved by his insight and expertise,” Azevedo said.

Jackson, who wrote extensively on the WTO and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, served as USTR general counsel from 1973 to 1974 and advised both the U.S. and foreign governments over his long life. For more detail on his career, click here: http://bit.ly/1GTNWt2

INTERNATIONAL OVERNIGHT

Myanmar ruling party concedes as Suu Kyi heads for poll landslide, Reuters reports: http://reut.rs/1Y0XsyN

Microsoft trade official Dwoskin calls TPP a shot in the arm for trade liberalization, Puget Sound Business Journal reports: http://bit.ly/1WJXgXg

Independent film group says China still not complying with WTO distribution deal, Variety reports: http://bit.ly/1Y0YNFJ

China surpassed Canada in September to become the largest US trade partner, Market Watch reports: http://on.mktw.net/1QqEnnn

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