A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 exclusive statewide poll shows a new leader in the presidential race and a significant shakeup of opinions among Floridians, with potential national ramifications.

The latest results, released Thursday, show Republican Mitt Romney with a 7-point lead over President Barack Obama.



When asked which ticket would get their vote if the general election were held today, 51 percent of the 800 registered Florida voters polled picked Romney, with 44 percent choosing Obama.



Another 1 percent chose Libertarian Gary Johnson or another third-party candidate, and 4 percent said they were still undecided.

The new numbers show a major change from our last Florida Decides Poll just three weeks earlier, when President Obama held the edge over Romney by just one percentage point.



So, why the sudden switch? The latest poll was taken just this week, Oct. 8–10, about a week after the first one-on-one debate between Romney and Obama.



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Women, Hispanics, independents changing their minds



The biggest change seen from September's poll to this month's were among women, Hispanics and voters who identify with neither major party.

In September, 51 percent of independent voters said they preferred President Obama, and 40 percent said they would vote for Mitt Romney.

Just three weeks later, that vote has flipped, with 52 percent supporting Romney and just 39 percent backing the president.

Among women polled a month ago, 55 percent said they would vote for Obama, and 40 percent for Romney.

Now, that gap has narrowed significantly, with just 49 percent of women choosing Obama, and 47 percent supporting Romney.



The Republican nominee also gained support among men, with a three-point gain to 56 percent, while votes for Obama dropped the same amount.



Four percent of both men and women said they were still undecided, and 1 percent of men chose a third-party candidate.



Breaking it demographically by race, Romney still held the majority of white voters, with 61 percent, while 94 percent of black voters said they support Obama.



The Hispanic vote, however, saw a noticeable shift, with many dropping their support for Obama.

Last month, 52 percent of Hispanic voters polled said they would vote for the president. In three weeks, that number has dropped to 44 percent.

Romney picked up some ground among Hispanics, from 43 to 46 percent, but the number of undecided Hispanic voters has doubled, from 5 percent in September to 10 percent now, representing the largest group of undecided voters in the latest poll.



Another noticeable change was also seen along the I-4 Corridor.

In Central Florida, Romney grabbed just 48 percent in September. Now, he has 52 percent of Central Floridians' votes.

Obama's support in Central Florida dropped one point, to 46 percent, so Romney's gain came mostly from previously undecided voters. The undecided vote in Central Florida dropped from 5 to 2 percent in three weeks.

In Tampa Bay, support for Romney jumped from 45 to 52 percent, and votes for Obama dropped from 49 to 44 percent. Undecided voters dropped from 5 to 3 percent, and the remaining 1 percent is backing a third party.

Obama also saw a drop in support in almost every age group, including a 7 percent drop among voters between ages 50 and 64. In September, 46 percent of that group said they would vote for Obama. Now, he only has 39 percent of their support.



Even Florida's youngest voters have begun changing their minds. Support for Obama among voters aged 18 to 34 dropped from 59 to 53 percent in three weeks. Romney saw a 3 percent gain, to 40 percent, in the same age group, and 7 percent now say they are undecided, as opposed to 3 percent last month.



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First presidential debate's impact



So, what changed voters' minds?

The first debate between Obama and Romney last week was likely a large influence.



Most did not change their minds. According to our exclusive poll, 88 percent of voters said they support the same candidate they preferred before the debate -- 44 percent for Obama, and 44 percent for Romney.

But it's the undecided vote both candidates are really after, and 5 percent said they were undecided before the debate, but now favor Romney.



No one in our Florida Decides poll said they went from being undecided to favoring Obama.

To add to the debate backlash, 2 percent said they switched from Obama to Romney, and another 2 percent said they preferred Obama, but are now undecided.

Two percent said they were undecided before the debate and still are now, and the remaining 1 percent said they were voting for a third-party candidate.

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Is it over for Obama in Florida?



Has the president lost all hope of taking Florida again like he did in 2008?

Not according to our polling experts. There are still two presidential debates that could potentially swing voters again.

Our experts did add, however, that once a voter changes their mind from one candidate to the other, it's difficult to win back that vote.



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Poll numbers in detail

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?

(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?



RECOGNIZE FAVORABLE RECOGNIZE UNFAVORABLE RECOGNIZE

NEUTRAL DON'T

RECOGNIZE Mitt Romney 50% 38% 12% — Paul Ryan 48% 35% 14% 3% Barack Obama 45% 49% 6% — Joe Biden 39% 46% 14% 1%

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president and vice president were held today, which one of the following tickets would get your vote?

The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden

The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan

The Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson & James Gray

One of the other party tickets



OBAMA

ROMNEY

OTHERS

UNDECIDED

STATE

44% 51% 1% 4% REGION

OBAMA

ROMNEY

OTHERS

UNDECIDED

North Florida

38% 59% — 3% Central Florida

46% 52% — 2% Tampa Bay

44% 52% 1% 3% Southwest Florida

37% 59% — 4% Southeast Florida

54% 42% 1% 3% SEX

OBAMA

ROMNEY

OTHERS

UNDECIDED

Men

39% 56% 1% 4% Women

49% 47% — 4% AGE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

OTHERS

UNDECIDED

18–34

53% 40% — 7% 35–49

43% 52% — 5% 50–64

39% 54% 1% 6% 65+

45% 52% 1% 2% RACE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

OTHERS

UNDECIDED

White

34% 61% 1% 4% Black

94% 5% — 1% Hispanic

44% 46% — 10% PARTY

OBAMA

ROMNEY

OTHERS

UNDECIDED

Democrat

82% 14% — 4% Republican

4% 94% — 2% Independent

39% 52% 3% 6%

QUESTION: Which one of the following best describes how the presidential debate influenced your voting decision?

Supported Obama before the debate and still support him 44% Supported Romney before the debate and still support him 44% Was undecided, but now for Romney 5% Support Obama, but now for Romney 2% Support Obama before the debate, but now undecided 2% Undecided before the debate and still undecided 2% For other candidate 1% Supported Romney, but now for Obama — Supported Romney before the debate, but now undecided — Was undecided, but now for Obama —

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance as president?



APPROVE

DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

STATE

44% 54% 2% REGION

APPROVE

DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

North Florida

39% 59% 2%

Central Florida

40% 58% 2% Tampa Bay

44% 54% 2% Southwest Florida

35% 64% 1% Southeast Florida

54% 44% 2% SEX

APPROVE

DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Men

38% 60% 2% Women

49% 49% 2%

RACE

APPROVE

DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

White

34% 65% 2% Black

91% 6% 3% Hispanic

53% 44% 3% PARTY

APPROVE

DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Democrat

82% 16% 2% Republican

5% 93% 2% Independent

39% 59% 2%

QUESTION: Would you say that things in the country are on the right track or would you say they are on the wrong track?

RIGHT

WRONG

NOT SURE

STATE

41% 54% 5% REGION

RIGHT

WRONG

NOT SURE

North Florida

33% 63% 4%

Central Florida

36% 59% 5% Tampa Bay

41% 56% 3% Southwest Florida

36% 59% 5% Southeast Florida

51% 42% 7% SEX

RIGHT

WRONG

NOT SURE

Men

38% 58% 4% Women

43% 51% 6%

RACE

RIGHT

WRONG

NOT SURE

White

34% 63% 3% Black

78% 12% 10% Hispanic

42% 49% 9% PARTY

RIGHT

WRONG

NOT SURE

Democrat

74% 20% 6% Republican

6% 91% 3% Independent

35% 58% 7%

QUESTION: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

YES

NO

NOT SURE

STATE

44% 50% 6% REGION

YES

NO

NOT SURE

North Florida

40% 55% 5%

Central Florida

35% 58% 7% Tampa Bay

42% 51% 7% Southwest Florida

39% 56% 5% Southeast Florida

57% 37% 6% SEX

YES

NO

NOT SURE

Men

41% 55% 4% Women

46% 46% 8%

RACE

YES

NO

NOT SURE

White

39% 55% 6% Black

73% 22% 5% Hispanic

37% 53% 10% PARTY

YES

NO

NOT SURE

Democrat

73% 20% 7% Republican

13% 83% 4% Independent

43% 51% 6%

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to improve the economy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

STATE

44% 50% 6% REGION

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

North Florida

36% 59% 5%

Central Florida

39% 54% 7% Tampa Bay

41% 52% 7% Southwest Florida

39% 56% 5% Southeast Florida

56% 38% 6% SEX

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Men

41% 55% 4% Women

46% 47% 7%

AGE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

18–34

54% 40% 6% 35–49

41% 55% 4% 50–64

42% 52% 4% 65+

44% 53% 3% RACE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

White

37% 58% 5% Black

84% 11% 5% Hispanic

39% 48% 13% PARTY

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Democrat

83% 13% 4% Republican

4% 92% 4% Independent

39% 54% 7%

QUESTION: Who do you trust more on foreign policy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?



OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

STATE

46% 49% 5% REGION

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

North Florida

39% 57% 4%

Central Florida

46% 51% 3% Tampa Bay

46% 48% 6% Southwest Florida

40% 58% 2% Southeast Florida

53% 40% 7% SEX

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Men

39% 58% 3% Women

52% 42% 6%

AGE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

18–34

53% 42% 5% 35–49

45% 52% 3% 50–64

44% 49% 7% 65+

46% 49% 5% RACE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

White

38% 57% 5% Black

91% 6% 3% Hispanic

45% 49% 6% PARTY

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Democrat

82% 13% 5% Republican

7% 91% 2% Independent

47% 49% 4%

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to look out for the middle class – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?



OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

STATE

47% 50% 3% REGION

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

North Florida

37% 61% 2%

Central Florida

46% 51% 3% Tampa Bay

46% 48% 6% Southwest Florida

40% 56% 4% Southeast Florida

57% 42% 1% SEX

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Men

44% 55% 1% Women

50% 46% 4%

AGE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

18–34

54% 43% 3% 35–49

45% 51% 4% 50–64

47% 51% 2% 65+

46% 51% 3% RACE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

White

38% 60% 2% Black

94% 2% 4% Hispanic

45% 46% 9% PARTY

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Democrat

84% 11% 5% Republican

7% 92% 1% Independent

44% 51% 5%

QUESTION: Who do you consider more trustworthy to lead the nation – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

STATE

46% 51% 3% REGION

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

North Florida

40% 56% 4%

Central Florida

45% 53% 2% Tampa Bay

47% 51% 2% Southwest Florida

39% 56% 5% Southeast Florida

52% 45% 3% SEX

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Men

42% 56% 2% Women

51% 46% 3%

AGE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

18–34

51% 45% 4% 35–49

42% 55% 3% 50–64

45% 52% 3% 65+

48% 49% 3% RACE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

White

37% 60% 3% Black

93% 3% 4% Hispanic

40% 53% 7% PARTY

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Democrat

84% 13% 3% Republican

5% 93% 2% Independent

42% 54% 4%

QUESTION: Whose plans do you think are more likely to do more long term harm to Medicare – Barack Obama's or Mitt Romney's?



OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

STATE

54% 40% 6% REGION

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

North Florida

60% 36% 4%

Central Florida

56% 39% 5% Tampa Bay

58% 37% 5% Southwest Florida

60% 32% 8% Southeast Florida

44% 48% 8% SEX

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Men

58% 39% 3% Women

51% 40% 9%

AGE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

18–34

39% 52% 9% 35–49

59% 33% 8% 50–64

56% 39% 5% 65+

54% 43% 3% RACE

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

White

64% 31% 5% Black

10% 83% 7% Hispanic

47% 41% 12% PARTY

OBAMA

ROMNEY

NOT SURE

Democrat

26% 69% 5% Republican

86% 7% 7% Independent

58% 37% 5%

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The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 8–10 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and News 13.

The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.