In an email interview, renowned virologist Dr T Jacob John, formerly with the Christian Medical College, Vellore, slammed the Indian and state governments for not testing enough for COVID-19.

He also warned that an “avalanche” of cases await the country. Here are excerpts from an email interview with the expert.

1. The original peak of the COVID-19 spread was expected to be around April 07-10. The lockdown was expected to flatten the curve to an extent and allow healthcare facilities to be prepared. Do you believe that south India (at least) is over the peak? Can we expect to see positive cases coming down?

Dr John: There is no mathematical modelling (for peak calculation); the inputs for such modelling are just not available. No state has reached the peak. How will we know if any state has reached the peak? (It is an) Old children's story.

What did the bear see when it reached the top of the mountain? The other side of the mountain.

When the curve takes a downturn and stays the down-slope, then we know the peak was passed. We are yet to reach the peak. Things are going to get a lot worse as we all are moving towards the peak.

There is something called epidemiological intelligence and qualitative prediction arising out of all available information. Peak is several weeks away. Picture for India is grim. This is an avalanche.

2. How do you think the Tablighi Jamaat cluster has changed the curve for south Indian states? Some bureaucrats feel the peak has been pushed by two weeks, since they have not been able to carry out the requisite testing of all those who exhibit symptoms.

Dr John: There are several ways to see things. Because they were identifiable, they could be traced. India continued to behave as is life was absolutely normal even on March 22, when Parliament was sitting. On March 12, I wanted Health Emergency declared in India.

Instead, the Epidemic Act of 1897 was invoked. The red flagging of countries was slow and not strictly based on risk alone. Authentic information was not being given out on a daily basis like in New York or Kerala.

On March 21 we were given a very optimistic picture that staying indoors for 14 hours was sufficient. On March 24, out of the blue, came the 21-day lockdown. That is when people took things seriously.

Meanwhile southern States had been taking their own decisions - both good (for local battles) and bad (for national discipline as Epidemic detection and control is Union Government subject) during a national war.

Even now a lot of people are thinking that virus transmission will disappear by 18 days into lockdown. This morning, wearing a mask and keeping a safe - 6 feet - distance from others I went to buy milk to stock for the next several days.

The street was alive. I walked past a vegetable vendor. Three sellers - no mask. Seven buyers - only two with mask. All seven jostling to pick up vegetables.

My milk-booth vendor with no mask. I counted 100 people on the street and 39 had no mask.

Was there any "emergency"? Was there any mandate to wear masks? I suspect that the governments of the Union and Delhi were not guided properly by technical people.

So the Tablighi Jamaat became both victims and perpetrators. They were hit with double whammy. Universal mask use should have been mandated by mid-March.