Red Wings mailbag: Doing some math, making playoffs 'inconceivable'

Time for another Detroit Red Wings mailbag. Thank you for the many questions.

As someone who is in the locker room daily, it’s clear how much it bothers veterans like Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall and Jimmy Howard to keep having to explain one-goal losses. The team plays hard, but they just do not have the talent it takes to win regularly.

Ultimately, I maintain the best scenario for them is to come up a goal short most games and miss the playoffs. Beyond franchise defense prospect Rasmus Dahlin, the 2018 draft is heavy on high-end defensemen and high-scoring forwards. The Wings will only regain competitiveness via drafting and developing, as they did to emerge from the "Dead Wings" era — they drafted Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom and Sergei Fedorov, the three core building blocks for the resurgence. At the same time, players and the coaching staff should want to make the playoffs. It’s important especially for the development of the young players that good habits are maintained, that the Wings continue to push.

That efforts will go unrewarded is pretty clear. The Wings haven’t been able to string together more than one four-game winning streak all season, and they’re off to an 0-2 start as they’ve embarked on a stretch of playing 11 road games in March. They’re not gaining any ground, and there are four teams between the Wings and a wild-card spot. Points-wise, the picture is bleak. Last season, Nashville got into the playoffs as an eighth seed with 94 points. The Wings have 62 points with 18 games remaining. Even if 90 points gets a team into the playoffs this spring, that would require the Wings to bank 28 points over 18 games. Cue Vizzini exclaiming “inconceivable” — this time the word means what he thinks it means.

For the stretch run, yes. Tyler Bertuzzi was moved into Tatar’s spot with Dylan Larkin and Andreas Athanasiou, promoted to a line where Bertuzzi will see regular shifts and likely significant offensive-zone play. For Martin Frk, it’s a chance to get back on the power play. Being a regular contributor on the power play is Frk’s best chance for becoming a regular. Looking ahead to next season, Evgeny Svechnikov, the team’s first-round pick from 2015, is a leading candidate to make a push for a spot in Detroit. Michael Rasmussen, the ninth overall pick from last year’s draft, is having a phenomenal final year of juniors (24 goals, 49 points after 39 games with the Tri-City Americans). He impressed with his poise during last year’s exhibition season, and the hope is he can maybe challenge for a role in Detroit as soon as next season.

Once past the trade deadline, teams only get four call-ups the remainder of the regular season, barring an emergency situation. The Wings already used two of those call-ups when they assigned, on paper, Tyler Bertuzzi and Jared Coreau to the Grand Rapids Griffins this past Monday. That was done in order to make them eligible to play in the AHL playoffs. Neither player went to Grand Rapids, but in order to have them continue with the Wings, they were called back up. Right now, the Wings have enough bodies to fill the lineup. If an injury develops that offers a chance for a prospect to play at least a handful of games, I'd expect them to bring up Svechnikov or Filip Hronek. Another factor to weigh, though, is that the Griffins are trying to secure a playoff spot.

Jimmy Howard is under contract through next season. My sense is the organization is not sold on Coreau as a viable NHL backup, though that could change if he gets an opportunity to play some games down the stretch. More likely, the Wings look to add someone via free agency. The interesting aspect is, the free agent market likely will include Petr Mrazek. The Philadelphia Flyers have both Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth under contract through next season. Are they going to qualify Mrazek at $4 million? Seems doubtful, in which case Mrazek becomes an unrestricted free agent.

My sense is they’re likelier to look for a patch player again, like they did last summer. Trevor Daley was someone they could add at a reasonable price and term who has improved their defense. They might look to add a forward this summer — I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sign Thomas Vanek, a guy who can be had for around $2 million and who’ll contribute in the 20-goal range. I know there is interest in re-signing defenseman Mike Green. At the same time, general manager Ken Holland wants there to be spots for prospects to make a grab at, such as forwards Svechnikov and Rasmussen and defenseman Dennis Cholowski. Xavier Ouellet doesn’t seem to fit into plans any longer (he has a year left on his contract, but if he’s waived most of his $1.25 million salary hit would come off the books), so there’s one potential opening.

Contact Helene St. James: hstjames@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @helenestjames. Check out our Red Wings Xtra app on Apple and Android!