On a good day, it takes Nadine Steaman 30 minutes and two bus rides to get to work.

But if the weather is poor or if traffic is backed up, her commute from Meadowvale Rd. and Sheppard Ave. E. to her office near Scarborough Town Centre can double, and by the time she arrives she’s so frazzled she just wants to turn around and go home.

“I loathe the bus,” said Steaman, a 47-year-old community health worker.

Like many residents in the GTHA, she’s desperate for her commute to get better, and she’s tired of politicians making lofty plans that never pan out.

“They dangle this promise of better solutions but it just never happens … People want to see change,” she said.

The four major parties in the June 7 provincial election are all making big promises to help people like Steaman who rely on public transit.

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The NDP, Progressive Conservatives and Liberals have all pledged to move forward with Toronto’s two most high-profile subway projects: the Relief Line, which would take pressure off the overcrowded Line 1 (Yonge-University-Spadina) by linking the eastern arm of Line 2 (Bloor-Danforth) to downtown, costing an estimated $6.8 billion; and the controversial extension of Line 2 to the Scarborough Town Centre.

Matti Siemiatycki, an associate professor at the University of Toronto who studies transportation policy, said the prominent commitments to a Relief Line indicate provincial leaders are finally paying attention to evidence Toronto’s subway network is overburdened.

“Probably in the last number of years the city has just started to feel way busier, and the transit system is really bursting at the seams,” he said.

But on the other hand, he suggested the leading parties’ agreement on the Scarborough subway is a sign that politics still trumps evidence in transit planning. Although many experts argue Scarborough would be better served by a network of cheaper light rail lines that could extend further into the eastern suburb, only the Green party promises to scrap the subway in favour of a 27-stop light rail network.

“Scarborough transit riders are tired of being used as a political football,” said a Green spokesperson. “They need good transit options now.”

In March, Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals announced $4 billion in new funding for transit in Toronto, and in addition to finishing the Relief Line, she’s identified the Waterfront LRT and the extension of Line 1 to Richmond Hill as priorities.

The party says its platform “stands in clear contrast to the incoherent, constantly changing and completely unfunded promises” made by Conservative Leader Doug Ford.

A Conservative spokesperson said in an email the party would “honour existing transit projects and continue ahead as planned.” But if the former Etobicoke councillor were elected premier, he intends to make some significant changes to the region’s transit plans.

The current Scarborough subway proposal would cost at least $3.35 billion and have just one stop, but Ford is pledging to build a three-stop version, expected to add more than $1 billion to the cost.

Ford would also revive the proposal to extend the Line 4 Sheppard subway to Scarborough Town Centre, which could cost upwards of $4.7 billion. Ford has also promised to build planned extensions of the Eglinton Crosstown underground “where feasible,” instead of current plans to keep them mostly above-grade.

The Conservatives justify these echanges as a necessary antidote to transit planning that it argues has treated “some communities and some neighbourhoods like second-class citizens.”

But Eric Miller, director of the U of T’s Transportation Research Institute, predicts a PC win would lead to “more churn, more turmoil, more throwing out plans, and it’s clear there’s no analysis behind any of it.”

To pay for his proposals, Ford has promised an additional $5 billion in spending for new Toronto transit, above the funding the current government has proposed. Critics point out that’s far short of his proposed projects’ cost, and the party has not identified a clear source for the money.

The election outcome could have big implications for Mayor John Tory’s SmartTrack plan, which would add up to six stations on GO lines within the city to provide Torontonians access to frequent GO service.

SmartTrack’s ability to attract riders depends heavily on lowering GO fares within the city to $3, which would make GO trips as cheap as the TTC. The lower fare structure, which the Liberals plan to implement in 2019, is expected to cost $90 million over its first three years.

The NDP has committed to the cheaper GO fares, The PC spokesperson said the party plans to “consider” them.

The Conservatives have promised to upload the TTC subway to Queen’s Park, arguing that putting the tunnels, tracks and stations on the province’s books would allow the government to use accounting practices not available to the city, and make it easier to finance subway projects. The TTC would retain control of day-to-day operations and revenue.

The Liberals have also promised to “begin discussions” with the city about uploading the subways, with few specifics.

TTC chair Josh Colle warned dividing ownership of the city’s transit network, in which bus, streetcar and subway operations are integrated, would be a logistical headache and could hurt service.

“How does a municipality like Toronto set service levels for something we don’t own?” said Colle. “We want transit to be as seamless and integrated as possible.”

To some experts, the most promising proposal being floated is the NDP and Greens’ promise to fund half the net operating costs for municipal transit agencies.

By the NDP’s math restoring the funding, cut by then Progressive Conservative premier Mike Harris in 1998, would mean about $330 million a year for the TTC, and the party says the cost-sharing would “immediately allow transit operators to improve services” and “provide more equitable and affordable fares.”

Shelagh Pizey-Allen, executive director of transit advocacy group TTCriders, said the proposal is “a really great step,” but cautioned there was no guarantee that provincial operating funds would lead to the benefits the NDP is touting.

For customers to truly be guaranteed better service and cheaper fares, she said, the province would have to agree to increase the TTC’s budget, not just shoulder half of the existing cost.

Perhaps most telling is what’s missing from most party platforms. None of the three leading parties are proposing new “revenue tools” to fund transit expansion.

The Green party says it would bring in “fair and progressive” revenue tools like parking levies and congestion charges, which it estimates would raise $3.9 billion a year.

Miller called the lack of revenue tools “a gaping hole” in the other three parties’ plans.

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Highlights of provincial transit platforms

Liberals

$4 billion in new funding for provincial share of the Relief Line, Waterfront LRT, SmartTrack and Yonge North Extension

$3 GO Transit fares within Toronto and all-day, two-way GO service on parts of the network

Complete the Eglinton Crosstown and Finch West LRTs

NDP

“Prioritize” the Relief Line

Fund 50 per cent of net operating costs for municipal transit agencies

$3 GO Transit fares within Toronto and all-day, two-way GO service on parts of the network

Electrify the Union Pearson Express “as soon as possible”

Conservatives

$5 billion in additional funding to help build subways, including the Relief Line, a three-stop Scarborough subway, extending the Sheppard subway, and Yonge North Extension

Take ownership of TTC subways

Build the Finch West and Eglinton Crosstown LRTs, with future Crosstown extensions underground “where feasible”

All-day, two-way GO service on parts of the network

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