6 Predictions For The Second Half

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With the All-Star Game now in the rear-view mirror it’s time to start looking forward to the second half of the MLB season. The first half provided it’s usual number of surprises with teams either being pleasantly surprising (Brewers, Marlins, Astros) and, some, less pleasantly (Red Sox, D-Backs, Rangers). Some individuals have also had memorable years so far (again, memorable for different reasons, Jose Altuve, Anthony Rizzo and Jeff Sarmadzija have all excelled, while some big names like Justin Verlander, Clay Buchholz and Billy Butler have had their struggles. So as we move into crunch time as Baseball heads down the stretch I will offer up 6 predictions (3 for each league) for the second half. (NB: As per usual, when these are wrong, you can excoriate me on Twitter, @FSGLoveman)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Jose Abreu will break Mark McGwire’s record for most Home Runs in a Rookie Season.

McGwire’s record, set in 1987, is 49 Home Runs- so this prediction basically means I think he’ll top 50 Home Runs. Abreu isn’t like any rookie we’ve seen before in the MLB, obviously this is partly down to his age, but his pure power is already on a level with Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stanton. If you need evidence of just how powerful Abreu is just check out the video below, with an easy swing Abreu takes the ball 325 yards to the opposite field. It’s that kind of power which makes me believe that ‘The Cuban Barry Bonds’ (Credit to ‘The Informer’ for that nickname) will take McGwire’s record.

Justin Verlander will find his form.

As mentioned in the introduction the former AL MVP has had his struggles this season. His ERA is 4.88 through 20 Games with a WHIP of 1.475, which is a career high if you ignore his 2 appearances in 2005. He has had a season like this before, however. In 2008 he had a 4.84 ERA with 1.403 WHIP and only striking out 7.3 per 9 innings. The K numbers are down for him again, 6.7 per 9 innings, and he’s also seen a dip in velocity. But I think he’s slowly coming to terms with this drop in velocity and will round back into All-Star form by the time October rolls around.

The Boston Red Sox will finish above the New York Yankees.

At the All-Star break the Yankees had a 4.5 game lead over their divisional foe, with last year’s World Series Champions languishing at the bottom of the AL East. However, I think the Red Sox are in a better place coming into the second half of the year. Their youthful squad seems to be turning a bit of a corner with Jackie Bradley Jnr looking like he’s breaking out of his almost season-long slump and Mookie Betts seeming to bring a bit more vigour to the line-up. Xander Bogaerts is too talented to remain in his own slump and I think both Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz will be better after the break. On the other hand, the Yankees are in turmoil in their pitching department with only Hiroki Kuroda not on DL from their start of the season rotation. Three other spots in their rotation are now taken by Chase Whitley, David Phelps and Brandon McCarthy with the fifth starter yet to be determined. This does not fill me with confidence. Given their line-up is also carrying the black hole of Derek Jeter at Shortstop, a significant lack of third base production and an injured Carlos Beltran, I feel that the Bombers are going to need a miracle (or some significant trades) to avoid a slump coming out of the break.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Diamondbacks will finish with 80 Wins.

At the moment Arizona have only 40 wins through 96 games as they sit at the bottom of the NL West. Just before the break Mark Trumbo returned, which should boost their order’s production (and provide some hilarious moments in Left Field) and it’s possible that Archie Bradley might finally be deemed worthy of a call-up to the Major Leagues (though he might need to pitch a bit better than a 5.18 ERA at Triple-A Reno). There was optimism surrounding the D-Backs at the start of the year given the amount they were spending, and I think that though they won’t be the play-off contenders many, myself included, thought they were at the start of the year, I think they can turn it around in the second half.

The Race for the NL East will come down to the last week of the season.

The NL East has finally, it appears, come down to a race between the Braves and Nationals. Though the Marlins were a fun story in the first half they fell off drastically in June and look to now be in a battle with the Mets and Phillies for minor placings. Both the Braves and Nationals have well built line-ups (despite Atlanta being saddled with BJ Upton) and strong rotations (Washington have the best ERA in the NL while Atlanta rank 4th) meaning that they should be battling right until the final throws.

Andrew McCutchen will emerge as the MVP favorite.

McCutchen started off his MVP defense a little slowly batting only .284 in April and then slugging just .380 in May (not hitting a single Home Run). But June saw the return of the complete package as he hit .343/.410/.686 with 8 Homers. This means he is now 3rd in Average in the NL, 6th in Home Runs, 2nd in RBI, 9th in Stolen Bases, 10th in Runs and leads the National League in Walks. I fully expect him to continue his June production into the second half of the year and will have a serious shot at repeating as MVP whilst potentially leading the Pirates back to the playoffs.

Stats from Baseball Reference and MLB.com