My Prediction of Election 2016 11/7/2016.(Final) TRUMP 315 | Hillary 223

Romney(206)+FL(29)+OH(18)+ME2(1)+NV(6)+IA(6)+CO(9)+PA(20)+MI(16)+NH(4)= 315



About the Details



1. Pennsylvania

1) Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Survey. 11/1-11/7, 1177 LV

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS



Hillary 37.69% | TRUMP 37.29% | Johnson 4.89%



Considering undecided 18% & perhaps Turnout favor TRUMP(especially Pennsylvania = Rust Belt.)





2) Pennsylvania: TRUMP vs Hillary. YouGov 11/3-11/5, 931 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152876385500

Adjusted: TRUMP +6.9%





3) Pennsylvania: TRUMP vs Hillary



Remington 11/1-11/2, 2683 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152847808700

Adjusted: TRUMP +3%





4) Pennsylvania: TRUMP vs Hillary

Monmouth 10/29-11/1, 403 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152647613565

Adjusted: TRUMP +2.8%





5) Pennsylvania: TRUMP vs Hillary

Susquehanna 10/31-11/1, 681 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152646333735

Adjusted: TRUMP +0.3%

2. Florida

1) FL’s early vote: 2012: D+3% -> 11/7/2016: D:+1.4%



GOP is doing better about +1.6% than 2012.

Races %: compare with 2012, for TRUMP +0.92% better.

https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/795656779422138368





2) Florida: TRUMP vs Hillary, Trafalgar 11/6, 1100 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152880656255

Adjusted: TRUMP +6.7%





3) Florida: Google Consumer Survey. 11/1-11/7, 1350 LV

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS



TRUMP 41.36% | Hillary 36.53% | Johnson 4.56% | undecided 16.62%







4) Florida: TRUMP vs Hillary, Savvy 11/5-11/6, 843 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152879558610

Adjusted: TRUMP +0.6%



5) Florida: TRUMP vs Hillary

YouGov 11/2-11/4, 1188 RV

My Analysis:http://StatesPoll.com/post/152840401670

Adjusted: TRUMP +6.7%







3. North Carolina

1) 11/7. Black voter turnouts=freefall. Especially Early voting in NC.



2012: 28% shares -> 11/7/2016: 22% share. compare with 2012. decreased by at least -20%. Meanwhile White voter shares % was increased. So, I guess TRUMP might carry North Carolina.







2) North Carolina: Google Consumer Survey. 11/1-11/7, 794 LV

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS



TRUMP 40.65% | Hillary 35.03% | Johnson 5.15% | undecided 17.51%





3) North Carolina: TRUMP vs Hillary. NYT/Siena 11/4-11/6, 800 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152855817185

Adjusted: TRUMP +3.5%

#TrumpTrain #MAGA #Trump2016







4) North Carolina: Quinnipiac Nov 3-6, 870 LV.

Hillary +2%. Adjusted: TRUMP 47% | Hillary 45%. TRUMP +2%



But undersampled White(67%), Oversampled Black(20%)

based on NC’s early vote.

in my opinion It will be White 73.5% | Black 19%



So, I guess TRUMP’s numbers should be plus at least 2%

Hillary’s numbers should be minus at least 2%



https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/snc11072016_demos.pdf/







4. New Hampshire

1) New Hampshire: TRUMP vs Hillary. Emerson 11/4-11/5, 1000 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152861851155

Adjusted: TRUMP +2.9%

2) WBUR, 10/29-11/1, 500 LV



http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/11/03/trump-clinton-new-hampshire



TRUMP 40% | Hillary 39% | Johnson 10% | Stein 3%









5. Nevada

1) Nevada: Google Consumer Survey. 11/1-11/7, 259 LV

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS



TRUMP 37.99% | Hillary 36.02% | Johnson 6.87% | undecided 16.6%





2) Nevada: TRUMP vs Hillary, Emerson 11/4-11/5, 600 LV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152860531190

A0djusted: TRUMP +0.45%





3) Nevada: Trafalgar Group 11/1-11/4, 1100 LV



TRUMP 49.61% | Hillary 45.01% | Johnson 2.58% | Stein 0.6%



https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view







4) Nevada: Remington 11/1-11/2, 1793 LV

http://docs.axiomstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/ABC_NV_STATEWIDE-110416.pdf



TRUMP 46% | Hillary 45%





6. Colorado.

1) Colorado’s Early vote



10/24 D+10% -> 11/2: D: +1.9% -> 11/7: R +0.6%

considering Trends, on Election Day, Republican would make higher turnouts. (in 2012, Republican made extremely low turnouts on election day. that’s why despite of Early vote was REP 37% | DEM 35%. R +2%. Colorado Exit Poll was DEM 34% | REP 29% D +5%.)

2) Plus, TRUMP is doing better than Romney(2012) of Independent Voters. CBS,YouGov: 10/26-10/28, 997 LV.

Colorado: TRUMP vs Hillary

CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28

My Analysis Post: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152511849765

Adjusted: TRUMP +0.8%

Ind: TRUMP 40% | Hillary 27%. TRUMP +13%

in 2012 it was Romney 49% | Obama 45%. Romney +9%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/





3) Colorado: TRUMP vs Hillary. Gravis 11/1-11/2, 1125 RV

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152764816445

Adjusted: TRUMP +5.9%







4) Colorado: TRUMP vs Hillary

Univ of Denver 10/29-10/31

My Analysis: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152672937320

Adjusted: TRUMP +2%



7. Michigan

1) Michigan: Trafalgar Group 11/6, 1200 LV



TRUMP 48.52% | Hillary 46.82% | Johnson 2.89% | Stein 0.9%



https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view







2) Michigan: Google Consumer Survey. 11/1-11/7, 821 LV

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS



Hillary 35% | TRUMP 34% | Johnson 6%



Considering undecided & perhaps Turnout favor TRUMP(especially Michigan = Rust Belt.)







3) Michigan: Mitchell Nov.1 887 LV. Hillary 47% | TRUMP 44%

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/215151598-story



But considering This poll undersampled Independent too much.

TRUMP got 91.5% of DEM, Hillary got 86% of DEM

IND: TRUMP 60% | Hillary 16% <—– in Michigan about 30% voters are Independent. CNN Exit Poll 2012



http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MI/president/

So, I guess TRUMP gonna win Michigan.





8. Ohio/Iowa/Arizona/Georgia/ME-2

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/



even Nate Silver admits, those states are likely TRUMP

Plus, Early voting in Nevada. 2nd week. DEM 40% | REP 37%

only DEM +3% (in 2012, it was DEM +7%). And many democrats support TRUMP.



Nevada Poll(Remington 10/30).



TRUMPocrats 21%: http://StatesPoll.com/post/152562053125