We are about to have some big changes at running back heading into Week 4. While some rookie running backs have disappointed this season, we are seeing others starting to climb to the top of their team’s depth chart. Other teams are faced with injuries that have pushed backups into starting roles as well. As the touches start to pile up, we need to start identifying trends that will help us make some important decisions moving forward.

This article is all about watching how a backfield is being used for every team. Snap counts are very useful, but I want to know what a player is doing when he has the ball in his hands. Anytime a running back gets a touch, what is being done with that touch?

Watching a trend with touches for running backs will not only let us know their usage for any given week or period, but how effective they are with the ball. High volume plus high effectiveness is always the best outcome. High volume with low effectiveness can be great and low volume with high effectiveness can be streaky at times. Let’s dive into our Week 4 preview.

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RB Touches and Efficiency Breakdown

The Great Baltimore Debate

Alex Collins owners have started to panic and some of that is warranted. However, those owners who continue to beat the Javorious Allen drum have exaggerated the actual scenario we see playing out in the Baltimore Ravens backfield. Allen has value in PPR leagues, there is no denying that, but he has not taken all of Collins value away.

In Week 3, Allen was able to find the end zone twice which was the only thing propping up his value. Outside of the touchdowns, Allen only had 26 total yards on nine touches. Collins however was able to find the end zone and had 74 yards on 21 touches. Even though Allen is frustrating because he continues to steal touchdowns from Collins, Allen is only averaging 2.9 yards per touch compared to Collins 3.5 yards per touch.

The Steelers have been one of the better teams against the run, only allowing 12.50 points to opposing backs through three weeks. Collins had the same amount of receptions in Week 3 as Allen, so the key will be who converts their goal line carry first. If you find yourself betting on players to score touchdowns to keep their value, you could be disappointed. Give me the volume every week, something Collins hasn’t given up yet.

Don’t Panic About Ezekiel Elliott

The number one player in my rankings to begin the season was Ezekiel Elliott and I am not jumping ship yet. Elliott is currently averaging 5.3 yards per carry on 59 touches. The other running backs to average more than 5.3 yards per touch on 50 or more touches? Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley and Adrian Peterson.

Elliott is currently the RB8 in PPR formats with a juicy date in Week 4 against a Detroit Lions defense that gives up 26.87 points to running backs this season, third most in the league. If Elliott can find the end zone a couple more times and start to pick up bigger plays in the passing game, he will start moving up the leaderboard.

Kerryon Johnson is Ready for the Next Step

For the first time since Reggie Bush in 2013, the Detroit Lions had a 100-yard rusher in Week 3 against the New England Patriots. We saw a truly elite offense with a passing game and running game that functioned well. You haven’t been able to say that about the Lions for a long time. If Matt Patricia knows what is good for his offense, he will let Johnson take the reins atop the depth chart.

Johnson is currently averaging 5.5 yards per touch on 39 touches through last week. One more touch and he would find himself in a special group that includes everyone listed in the previous section along with Joe Mixon and T.J. Yeldon. All these backs have 40 or more touches and more than 5.3 yards per touch this season.

Johnson has 43% of the touch share in Detroit this season and if he can keep up this pace while climbing above 50% of the touches, he will become a legit RB2 with upside. If the Lions can get themselves in a positive game script against the Cowboys this week, Johnson could have another big game.

Here Comes Aaron Jones

A two-game suspension for Aaron Jones left the door wide open for Jamaal Williams to take a hold of this job and not give it up. However, Williams has not been effective, averaging 3.8 yards per touch while holding 59% of the touches this season. Jones showed up in Week 3 and got things going, averaging 6.7 yards per touch on 7 touches.

It’s time to hand this job to Jones who is a much more explosive running back than Williams or Ty Montgomery. The Packers need one of their running backs to start breaking some big plays and take the pressure off the passing game. Aaron Rodgers can handle this on his own, but he shouldn’t have to - and if the run game can become more effective, it makes Rodgers that much better. The Bills are fourth worst in fantasy points allowed to running backs, giving up 22.93 points per game.

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