A no-deal Brexit could lead to the NHS forking out £2.3bn by 2020, new analysis suggests.

The additional cost could come as a result of increased purchasing of supplies and may have an impact on patient care, according to the Nuffield Trust.

A new blog published on the thinktank’s website states that such extra costs could divert the funding available to improve patient care.

The estimate was formed after analysis of academic studies on trade, NHS finances, and the Government’s Brexit impact assessment.

It examined estimated increases in prices for medical devices, such as X-ray machines, medicines and other supplies such as food and bedding.

While the exact figure is difficult to predict with certainty, the article concludes that the English health service’s share of £2.3bn in higher bills “would take up nearly all the money our calculations suggest will be free for improvements in patient care next year and the year after”.

Author of the blog, Mark Dayan, the Nuffield Trust’s Brexit expert and policy analyst, said: “Even with quite cautious assumptions about how much prices would rise, this calculation suggests a no-deal Brexit would have a noticeable impact on NHS finances.

“That money will have to be taken from somewhere, and £2.3bn is equivalent to the entire annual budget of around six NHS trusts.

“Unfortunately, a no-deal scenario would also mean less money in the Treasury to bail out the service.

“The days of indefinite austerity for the health service would be back.”

NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary Show all 18 1 /18 NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People holding placards attend a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, addresses demonstrators following the march AFP/Getty NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary A man stands with a coffin, used as a prop at a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary epa06851663 Thousands of people march, to mark 70 years of the British National Health Service (NHS), in central London, Britain, 30 June 2018. Reports state that the gathering is calling on the government for increased funding and staffing for the NHS, as well as a protest against privatisation of an organisation which turns 70 years old on 05 July 2018. EPA/ANDY RAIN ANDY RAIN EPA NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People holding placards attend a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary A man wears an NHS themed hat during a march in support of the National Health Service, in central London, Britain, June 30, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson SIMON DAWSON Reuters NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary Demonstrators hold placards during a march in support of the National Health Service, in central London, Britain, June 30, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson SIMON DAWSON REUTERS NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary epa06851662 A man with a birthday placard as thousands of people march, to mark 70 years of the British National Health Service (NHS), in central London, Britain, 30 June 2018. Reports state that the gathering is calling on the government for increased funding and staffing for the NHS, as well as a protest against privatisation of an organisation which turns 70 years old on 05 July 2018. EPA/ANDY RAIN ANDY RAIN EPA NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary Demonstrators stand in Whitehall during a march in support of the National Health Service, in central London, Britain, June 30, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson SIMON DAWSON REUTERS NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People march in central London to mark the 70th anniversary of the NHS. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Saturday June 30, 2018. See PA story INDUSTRY Demonstration. Photo credit should read: John Stillwell/PA Wire John Stillwell PA NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary Demonstrators hold placards during of a march in support of the National Health Service, in central London, Britain, June 30, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson SIMON DAWSON REUTERS NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People holding placards attend a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary Demonstrators hold placards during a march in support of the National Health Service, in central London, Britain, June 30, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson SIMON DAWSON REUTERS NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary Jeremy Corbyn and Jon Ashworth speak during a march in central London, marking the 70th anniversary of the NHS. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Saturday June 30, 2018. See PA story INDUSTRY Demonstration. Photo credit should read: John Stillwell/PA Wire John Stillwell PA NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People holding placards attend a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People holding placards attend a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People gather with placards to attend a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images NHS at 70: demonstration and celebration march to mark anniversary People gather with placards to attend a demonstration and celebration march to mark the 70th anniversary of the National Health Service (NHS), in central London on June 30, 2018. Organised by the Peoples Assembly, Health Campaigns Together, The TUC and 11 other health trade unions, tens of thousands are expected to attend the only national public event organised to mark the anniversary of the British Health Service. / AFP PHOTO / Tolga AKMENTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images TOLGA AKMEN AFP/Getty Images

A Department of Health and Social Care spokeswoman said: “The Government is confident of reaching a deal with the EU that benefits patients and the NHS. However, as a responsible Government we are also preparing for a range of potential outcomes in the unlikely event of a no deal.

“As part of our contingency planning, we are taking all necessary steps with NHS England, suppliers and pharmaceutical companies to ensure patients continue to receive the high standards of care they expect.”