We’ve all heard people, both during and after games, blame their dice or their opponent’s dice for the state of the game or their record for the day. We’ve all heard it, and, let’s be honest here, we’ve all said it, too. The simple truth is that dice variance is a large part of X-Wing, especially in this Second Edition of the game. Most of the auto-include upgrades from First Edition that reduced the extreme swings of dice variance didn’t make the transition into this current edition, and the game is better for that. But, if the dice don’t play along at all, it can be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to overcome. The impact of chance on a strategy game can be frustrating; however, the more you blame things that are outside of your control (i.e. dice variance), even in cases where it might be warranted, the less you will look for areas where you can actually do something to improve your game.

I had a game a while back where I was playing a Slave 1 Boba and an Advanced Sensors, Afterburners Guri verses a 5 Y-Wing list all with Veteran Turret Gunners and a mix of Ion Cannon Turrets and Dorsal Turrets. For most of the first hour of the game, I played it perfectly. Boba took a couple of range 3 obstructed shots from a few Y-Wings, Guri never got shot at once, and I killed a Y-Wing. Then I had a turn where Guri landed in arc of two Y-Wings. I had a choice to either barrel roll away from them, guaranteeing two range 3 obstructed shots into her, or boosting into what I thought would be a single range 3 obstructed shot. I boosted, and was still barely in arc, range 3, obstructed on one, and just barely range 2, obstructed from the other. Still should be fine. I was going to have a total of three unmodded two dice attacks coming at a full health Guri. Five green dice for the one range 3 shot, and four green dice for the two range 2 shots. I figured I would take one damage, maybe two on the outside chance.

First shot was a hit and a crit. I rolled one evade on those five dice. That’s the shield. Not bad; on to the next shot. A hit and a crit. I rolled all blanks and focuses. Two hull left. Second attack from the Dorsal Turret. Once again it’s a hit and a crit, and again I roll all focuses and blanks. Just like that, Guri is off the table. All of a sudden I’m down on points, and I eventually lose the game by 5 points of MOV.

Did the dice screw me? Absolutely. His dice were hot, and mine were below average. But I didn’t lose that game because of dice. I lost the game because I misjudged where a boost would land. If I had simply calculated, she would have lived. If I had barrel rolled instead of boosting, she would have lived. Then I win at time. I had safe options, but I took a riskier option and lost the game for it.

There is a concept that Dee Yun of the Mynocks (Fly Better, now) often talks about called a confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is defined as “the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories.” This tendency can skew our experience of X-Wing; with dice in particular, bias arises in two separate but equally important ways.

First bias: “My dice are bad, and so I lose games.”

This is the most obvious, and the one that many, if not most, people start with as new X-Wing players. You make poorly considered choices in the game and fly badly, relying on the dice to win you the game. They don’t. Conclusion? My dice are terrible. It’s easy to start here and stay here, because for a long time you don’t know enough about the game to even come close to identifying what actually went wrong. Without any further input or some deep introspection and game analysis, you are unlikely to come to any different conclusions due to the cyclical nature of your confirmation-bias-fueled dice woes.

The best way to break free of this cycle is to (for a while) not allow yourself to blame dice for the swings of games. When one of your ships gets wiped off the board, don’t allow yourself to immediately dismiss that outcome as a fluke of variance, but take an honest look at what steps you could have taken as a player to bring about a different outcome. Think back to how a change to an action or maneuver on that turn, or even the turn before, might have been more advantageous for you. Make a habit of discussing the ebb and flow of games with your opponents afterward, so you can help each other identify the turning points of the game. Be aware that if you are very vocally upset about dice variance throughout your games, your opponents might be less than eager to have an open discussion with you when that time comes. At best, being very salty will make the post game conversation awkward.

The problem, really a glaring massive fault with the “no blaming the dice” line of thought, is that sometimes the dice really do just screw you. As you grow as an X-Wing player, if you do adopt the mantra that you won’t ever blame dice for a game loss, you can run into the second area where a dice related confirmation bias can hurt your ability to improve at X-Wing.

Second bias: “I can’t blame dice, so I must have screwed up.”

Sometimes, despite making all the correct decisions, the dice will just say “no.” A fellow Arch Alliance member was telling me about a game he lost recently in a local tournament. He was playing a list comprised of three high initiative non-configured Jedi. Very fast, very maneuverable, and hard to hit – but it doesn’t have much damage output, and can lose large amounts of MOV in an instant if he screws up. He had chosen his list to help himself learn to fly better with aces and keep dice variance out of the picture. The game plan for the list is mostly to play the entire game just not getting shot, while taking whatever points he can snatch along the way.

He and his opponent had spent a solid 45 minutes jockeying for position, with no damage dealt on either side. Then he saw what he believed (correctly) to be his best opportunity to score some MOV. One of his opponent’s ships was out of position and he had a chance to get all three of his guns on one target: one range 1 shot and two range 2 shots, all with locks and focuses. He had a real chance to outright delete this ship. The only return shot was going to be from a three attack dice ship at range 3, obstructed. Three red dice with a focus against five green dice with force. The odds are only 1 in 4 that he would take any damage at all, and extremely slim that he would take more than one.

But the dice intervened. His ship (which was worth more than the ship he was shooting at) got taken down to half points by three natural hits. He rolled one evade and four blanks. Meanwhile, all three of his fully modded shots only got the opposing ship to half; the gain in points was not worth the points he lost.

His takeaway from that encounter was that he had screwed up, but I don’t believe he did.

Now, the two examples I’ve used to illustrate these two points might seem like almost identical situations, but while they are similar, the differences are important. He took a calculated risk at the correct moment to converge on his opponent’s ship while it was out of position. In order to get all three of his guns on target, he had to take a shot back on one of his Jedi. So he placed that Jedi at range three, obstructed, and had mods to back up those five green dice. He made the correct, potentially game winning decision, and the dice abandoned him.

On the flip side, I had the choice of barrel rolling to guarantee that I got both the obstruction bonus and range three, or staying right where I was and getting a mod for my dice. Instead I misjudged a boost, decided not to stress for a mod, and Guri died. I made the incorrect decision, and the dice didn’t bail me out.

Learning to recognize the sometimes subtle differences between situations where you genuinely made the correct decision and the dice screwed you, and situations where you messed up and the dice didn’t bail you out can be a difficult process. But it is a big step toward becoming a better X-Wing player. Generally speaking, we are much more to blame for our own losses than the variance swings of dice results are. If you want to improve at the game, you must make an effort to look past your biases to identify the point at which you lost the game, and to assign blame where it is actually due.

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