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After more than a year of stops and starts, hope is dimming for New Jersey’s leaders to convince enough state lawmakers to vote for a bill to legalize recreational marijuana in the state, NJ Advance Media has learned.

Instead, the chances of letting Garden State voters decide whether to make pot legal have increased in recent weeks — most likely in a ballot referendum in the 2020 November elections, according to six legislative and industry sources with direct knowledge of the discussions.

And if the issue does go before voters then, that means New Jerseyans may not be able to partake in legal weed until sometime in 2021.

Some sources say a new development has added to uncertainty: the increasingly heated street fight between Gov. Phil Murphy and allies of state Senate President Stephen Sweeney — two top Democrats who must work together to get pot passed — over corporate tax incentives doled out by New Jersey’s Economic Development Authority.

A task force convened by Murphy has been investigating whether businesses misused the breaks in past years, including some with connected to Democratic south Jersey powerbroker George Norcross, a close ally of Sweeney.

And that has made the already strained relationship between Murphy and Sweeney even more tense, at a critical point in the fight for legal pot, according to sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the situation.

Bill Caruso, an attorney and founding member of the social justice group New Jersey United for Marijuana Reform, called the feuding over the tax credits “a horrible distraction for those who are focused on cannabis.”

Caruso said progressive advocates “have decided to make this their top issue, leaving behind the social justice efforts surrounding cannabis, and that is unfortunate."

State Sen. Nicholas Scutari, the bill’s main sponsor, admitted the dispute “is not helping” negotiations on pot.

But, he stressed, “no one has given up yet” on trying to get enough votes in the Legislature. Scutari, D-Union, called a voter referendum “a last resort” if they can’t.

Murphy’s office declined to comment on Friday.

But a Murphy administration source rejected the idea that the pot bill and its social justice implications are being jeopardized by an investigation examining whether tax breaks — and thus taxpayer money — were criminally abused.

The source dismissed the concerns as "spin” from lawmakers trying to cast blame because legalization has stalled in the state Senate.

And the source stressed that Murphy’s team and legislative leaders have not formally discussed falling back on a voter referendum.

Murphy, a Democrat, made legalizing marijuana a central part of his 2017 campaign, in large part because residents of color in New Jersey are three times more likely to be arrested on pot charges than whites. A separate but linked bill would clear the records of residents with past pot convictions.

Of the 10 states that have legalized pot, only Vermont has done so legislatively. All others have turned to voters to decide.

Murphy and other New Jersey leaders have hoped to go the legislative route because they say it would give them more flexibility with how the program gets rolled out.

Still, while Murphy’s fellow Democrats control the state Legislature, it’s proven difficult to wrangle enough votes for the bill, which would make marijuana legal for those 21 and older in New Jersey.

Murphy, Sweeney, state Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, and other top Democratic lawmakers worked feverishly to hold a vote in late March, but the plan was canceled when it became clear they’d fall a few votes short in the Senate. Numerous lawmakers from both major political parties have been steadfastly opposed to the proposal.

The new goal was to hold a vote before the end of May. Now that appears unlikely because leaders still remain a handful of votes short, according to multiple sources.

One source added that “all the good will" and coordination built up between Murphy and top lawmakers when they tried to secure votes in March is gone.

Plus, some of the lawmakers who leaders have tried to convince to vote “yes” hail from south Jersey and likely side with Norcross and Sweeney in the EDA battle.

All this doesn’t mean leaders have given up hope for a vote in the Legislature on weed. Sweeney, the Senate president, told NJ Advance Media “there’s no doubt in my mind that, one way or another, adult-use marijuana will get done in the state of New Jersey.”

But he wouldn’t commit to a timeline or how it would happen.

“I’ve been wrong so many times on that,” Sweeney, D-Gloucester, said.

He said if a May vote falls apart, it’s unlikely another vote would be scheduled before this November’s elections, when the entire Assembly is on the ballot.

“It’ll be interesting to see what happens," Sweeney said. "But we’re not gonna give up trying.”

One idea is to hold a vote in the lame duck period after November’s elections. Sources, however, say another big issue is that many of lawmakers opposed to legalization are hard “no” votes — meaning, they are unlikely to be swayed, even by the horse-trading that often pops up in tough legislative battles.

“I don’t know if enough can change,” one source said.

All of this has made it more probable that leaders will ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment approving legal marijuana. That would allow lawmakers on the fence to avoid having to cast a public vote.

Polls show a majority of New Jersey voters favor legalizing weed.

The question is: Which ballot would the referendum appear on?

Leaders fear that putting it before voters this November might be risky. That’s because Assembly seats top the ticket, which will likely draw a low turnout of mostly older voters.

And one source said leaders would be “screwed” if the referendum doesn’t pass this year because they’d have to wait at least two years to put it on the ballot again, according to the state’s constitution.

But next November will see a presidential election, with a likely larger — and younger — turnout. Leaders expect the referendum would pass easily then.

In the meantime, Murphy is expected to follow through with plans to expand the state’s medical marijuana program if the Legislature doesn’t vote in May. The move would make it much easier for patients to obtain the drug, which Murphy says is sorely needed.

State Sen. Ronald Rice, D-Essex, the most vocal opponent in the Legislature to legalizing marijuana, said addressing the needs of patients should be the top priority.

“First, we must attend to the sick and dying who need medical marijuana today — right now — to relieve their suffering,” Rice said Friday.

The veteran senator said lawmakers also need to pass the bill expunging records to give people “a second chance and a fresh start” after being subject to “unfair marijuana arrests, convictions and criminal records.”

If New Jersey voters do pass legal pot at the ballot box in 2020, it may be be another few months — at least — before you could legally smoke because the state would need time to set the industry up. Still, sources said it may not take too long because lawmakers could pass legislation before the election to lay the groundwork.

It’s also possible that Congress could make marijuana legal across the U.S. before New Jersey acts. Several measures have been introduced to either remove the federal prohibition against the drug or to prevent Washington from enforcing its laws against cannabis in states that have legalized it.

Still, none of those bills have been voted on in Congress, and it appears unlikely anything would happen on a broad scale while Republicans control the U.S. Senate.

NJ Advance Media staff writers Payton Guoin and Jonathan D. Salant contributed to this report.

Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @johnsb01.

Susan K. Livio may be reached at slivio@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @SusanKLivio.

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