Fifty years ago, a wall was built in the middle of the night to separate West and East Berlin. Since the division of Germany, hundreds of thousands had defected from the German Democratic Republic (GDR) to the West. Under the pretext of keeping "capitalism out," the GDR authorities moved to keep their citizens in. Only when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989 was the path for German reunification open. In 1990, 45 years after the end of World War II, Germany was reunited.

Another country that fell victim to Cold War politics and was divided in the aftermath of World War II was Korea, which remains divided into North and South Korea to this day. It is almost two decades since the Iron Curtain fell and Francis Fukuyama pronounced the "end of history." But the Korean peninsula still seems a throwback to the second half of the 20th century. North Korea is considered to be the final bastion of Stalinism in the world, whereas South Korea has developed into a capitalist liberal democracy.

One reason Beijing supports Pyongyang is its fears of a huge influx of refugees

Hanns Günther Hilpert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin is certain that North Korea's end will come and that reunification will take place. However, he is less certain when and how this will happen. "All scenarios are imaginable," he told Deutsche Welle. "It is never clear what will happen in future, but dictatorships are weak and their time always comes," agrees Stefan Wolle, a historian and the academic director of the GDR Museum in Berlin.

'Not comparable'

Although many are quick to mention reunified Germany and possible Korean reunification in one breath, Hilpert points out that are far too many differences for such an analogy to make sense: "Germany is more of a reference than an instruction manual."

Wolle agrees that the situation is "not comparable" in political terms, and only to a certain extent in historical terms. One "fundamental difference," he told Deutsche Welle, is that there was no war between the two Germanys. Hundreds of thousands of civilians died in the bloody war that raged between 1950 and 1953 and most of the cities on the Korean peninsula were destroyed.

North Koreans work for South Korean firms at the inter-Korean Kaesong industrial park

Since then, there has been hardly any contact between the citizens of the two countries, except for rare heavily-monitored gatherings when family members are allowed to be reunited briefly. A limited number of North Koreans work for South Korean firms at the Kaesong industrial complex on the North Korean side of the heavily-guarded border. By comparison, East and West Germans stayed in contact throughout. There was postal communication, as well as telephone contact, together with restricted travel.

Need for rapprochement

For Wolle, the other fundamental difference is that there is no real equivalent of Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik, without which "the fall of the wall is unthinkable." Although South Korea introduced a similar policy in 1998, it was declared a failure 10 years later. The Ministry for Reunification announced that the Sunshine Policy of peaceful engagement had not changed Pyongyang's behaviour and the lives of North Koreans had not improved after a decade of cooperation, cross-border exchanges and billions of dollars in aid.

If Korea is ever reunited, it could be a difference of mentality that keeps people apart

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who came to power in 2008, took a much more hard-line approach and insisted North Korea should give up nuclear weapons in return for aid. However, Pyongyang seems to be resistant to both the carrot and the stick. "The regime is only interested in its own power and survival," Hilpert says. "North Korea has learnt from the GDR and will make every attempt to survive."

The 'bomb' provides leverage

One reason North Korea has been able to survive is China. Both Wolle and Hilpert agree that Beijing's support of Pyongyang in terms of energy and food is crucial for the regime’s survival, and the fact that China does not want a storm of refugees flooding its borders or US troops at its doorstep means that it could go on indefinitely.

However, Hilpert points out that Pyongyang "does not let itself be dictated to by China. North Korea is really independent and it has been able to decide for itself ever since it has acquired the atomic bomb."

"Whereas the GDR was not able to act independently of the Soviet Union, North Korea can even deter the US from invasion because of its nuclear weapons," Hilpert adds.

Little chance of mass uprisings

Just as there seems to be little chance of external pressure making a difference, there is little chance of a popular rising from within, despite widespread hunger and discontent. There is no equivalent in North Korea of the churches that were the settings of debate and protests in late 1980s East Germany.

"One cannot expect a big movement to emerge," says Hilpert. "Although in rural areas, the regime and leadership is very much hated and there are sometimes riots - not really uprisings - these are isolated cases that are not connected. There is no civil society and even small associations come under the state's influence."

Germany was reunited after 45 years

Hilpert does think change might come from within, however, especially in light of the leadership succession. "I think a military putsch is very possible," he says, considering it is doubtful "whether the older cadres in power will be willing to take orders from the young Kim when he takes over."

'Wall in their heads'

So the future of the Korean peninsula remains as uncertain as ever. What is clear though is that when and if the two Koreas are reunited, Germany will only be able to give a few pointers.

Whereas the two Germanys were essentially "modern industrial states," says Wolle, "the difference in living standards between the two Koreas is gigantic." "South Korea exports in one day what North Korea exports in a year,” confirms Hilpert. "And whereas East Germans were perhaps earning a third of what their West German counterparts were earning, North Koreans are probably earning a thirtieth."

For Hilpert, however, the greatest challenge when reunification does take place, and he insists that it will, will be the "difference in mentality." Those who believe some Germans still have the "wall in their heads" will agree that this is a great challenge.

Author: Anne Thomas

Editor: Arun Chowdhury