The Pulwama attack, which killed 41 Central Armed Reserve Police personnel, was the terrorists’ most dastardly attack since 2001, when it targeted the families of Army personnel. It was the most deadly attack on Indian forces since the Islamist, Pakistani-backed, insurgency in Kashmir began in 1989.

One thing is clear — this was a long time coming. I held serious reservations about last summer’s Ramadan cease-fire as it would only help further ideological consolidation — and unfortunately, so it has proved.

An excerpt from National Identity XIX: The Indian Soldier in Kashmir

While the number of attacks have gradually decreased, the ferocity of these attacks has been on the rise since the summer of 2016 — when the popular local militant Burhan Wani was gunned down by the Indian Army. In the two years since, the terrorists have been on the run as the Indian forces have pinned them down and eliminated them.

The terrorists’ immediate response to Wani’s killing was a massacre of 19 Indian Army soldiers in Uri in September 2016 — which led to the Indian Army’s surgical strikes, across the Line of Control. The surgical strikes levelled multiple terror launch pads. However, make no mistake — it was a tactical one-off. India also had the element of surprise on her side in responding in 2016. Pakistan is now wise to a Special Forces led assault on the launch pads it helps fund and maintain. Moreover, the heavy snow in the lower reaches of the Himalayas this time of year renders a foot assault moot.

The map of the world’s most militarized zone. Pulwama is a part of the restive South Kashmir region. (Image: BBC)

Additionally, tactical one-offs will not suffice as a response this time. Why? Simply because you don’t respond to strategic threats with tactical one-offs or a series of tactical raids. The Pakistani backed Kashmir unrest is, at best, a strategic buffer for Pakistan or at worst, an annexation ploy. The Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group behind Thursday’s attack, and Pakistani ISI’s force of choice for ‘big-bang’ attacks, are Pakistan’s own force multipliers.

India cannot counter this with one off strikes — India will have to raise the ante and be prepared for any escalation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already backed himself into a corner — he has promised retaliation and he has given the Armed Forces a free hand in planning retaliatory attacks. However, as I have stressed repeatedly in the past, the forces can only bring all parties to the negotiating table — they cannot bring about strategic change. That is the politicians’ job. However, with elections due in a few months — the pressure will be on the military to fire an opening salvo.

To help shed strategic restrain as a policy — diplomatic isolation of Pakistan is a must. More importantly, economic isolation at this delicate time for the Pakistani economy, will wreck the nation’s trust in its military. The Pakistani Army has maintained its vice like grip on the nation by portraying India as an existential threat. This has, time and again, decimated their economy as their military is prioritized to the detriment of all other sectors. Every time the economy stares into the abyss — Pakistan responds with a terrorist attack on Indian soil. India’s subsequent belligerent rhetoric provides the Pakistani Army the necessary breathing space to connive their public into supporting them.

As a case in point, when did the Mumbai attacks of 26/11 happen — on 26/11/2008 — a few months after the onset of the Great Recession. And in the midst of a bloody civil war.

The backdrop to the Pulwama attacks is 2018, a year in which Pakistan’s economy has tanked and it has requested multiple bail-outs from the IMF. Ultimately, their Islamic brother-in-arms Saudi Arabia, are likely to come to their rescue. But don’t expect string-free largesse as the oil price continues to be volatile and far below this decade’s highs.

Strategic interest from the Great Powers is also not focused on South Asia — like it was in the aftermath of 9/11 in 2001. A few months after 9/11, in December 2001, the Indian parliament was attacked and India mobilized its entire Army on her Western front. Cold Start, which I have repeatedly invoked while discussing strategic options, was ultimately a failure because the US couldn’t allow their ally, Pakistan, to be distracted by her Eastern neighbour. Pakistan made perfunctory promises, under US pressure, which placated India.

This time around, USA’s National Security Advisor, John Bolton, spoke with India’s NSA Ajit Doval and “supported India’s right to self-defence against cross-border terrorism” — which points to a tacit approval of military engagement on a limited scale. The world’s migraine, Pakistan, might have finally tired the West. As Shekar Gupta noted,

“Noted American scholar on South Asia, Stephen P. Cohen, has a genius description for Pakistani strategic thought. Pakistan, he says, negotiates with the world by holding the gun to its own head: Give me what I want, or I will blow my brains out. You then handle the mess.”

That is bound to tire anyone out.

USA has just about had enough of its longest war. Their Afghan presence is on the wane. From being the playground of the Great Game — Afghanistan will soon be under the sphere of Asian actors — India, Iran, Pakistan and China. With Pakistan no longer the Western ally of choice in the region, India has military room to manoeuvre — India must test the sanctity of the Line of Control. This has often been war-gamed in the Northern Command and HQ IDS and will be a powerful opening salvo.

An excerpt from the National Identity VII: Unschakling India’s strategic constraint

There is, after all, one final bluff to call — the Pakistani nuclear doctrine;

“Pakistan’s nuclear escalation ladder has only one rung” — Shireen Mazari, political scientist and central spokesperson of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

This was uttered many years ago. Today, Tehreek-e-Insaf are the party in power and their leader, Imran Khan, Pakistan’s Prime Minister. The myth of the bluff endures.

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National Identity III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX, X, XI, XII, XIII, XIV, XV, XVI, XVII, XVIII, XIX, XX, XXI, XXII, XXIII, XXIV, XXV, XXVI, XXVII, XXVIII, XXIX, XXX, XXXI, XXXII, XXXIII, XXXIV, XXXV, XXXVI

XII: The games Generals play…

XIV: Inside the Special Forces identity crisis

XIX: The Indian soldier in Kashmir

XXV: Doval Durbar

XXX: Kargil, the Bodyguard of Pakistan’s Lies

XXXI: Kashmir Comes Home

XXXV: The Three Indian Armies