What Will Happen With Brexit?

Three Votes in the British parliament this week will shape the form that Brexit takes. Will it be an EU deal? No-deal, extenuated Brexit period?



Yesterday saw Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal rejected for a second time in the House of Commons, with an overwhelming vote of 391-242 against the deal.



The potential of a no-deal was rejected.

The “May Deal” has seen a large amount of criticism mainly due to the Backstop left in the legislation. The Backstop means that the UK would remain in a large number of EU institutions and be subject to certain regulations without any choice and it would only be able to leave if the EU voted in favour of the UK leaving.



The Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, said that there remain “legal implications of the backstop that could leave both sides in indefinite negotiations.”



New Vote on Brexit

Today saw a vote on the notion of a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit removed after the Spelman amendment by 312 to 308. The amended no-deal motion then backed by MPs 321 to 278 in spite of government opposition.



Tomorrow, given that a No-deal Brexit has been ruled out, the house has been promised a third vote on extending the Brexit period beyond the current end date of March 29.



It has been suggested by the Prime Minister, that this might be extended to May, or even potentially June, depending on negotiations in the interim.



What Does This Mean?

This could result in several options:

The Prime Minister’s deal gets voted on the third time and passes. Britain is left in limbo in negotiations with the EU. A no-deal Brexit gets re-evaluated. The EU demands the UK keep to the projected timescale and the UK is removed. Britain re-negotiations membership and remains a member of the EU.

There is no indication as to which option might potentially occur at this point. Theresa May’s deal, although soundly rejected, was rejected by a smaller margin than the first time. It is uncertain how the EU will react at this point in time to continued British negotiation or membership. The potential of a no-deal was rejected, however the voting margin was very small so there is potential for reconsideration.

Brexit by numbers

June 23, 2016 – The day of the Brexit Referendum

March 29, 2019 – Official Brexit leave date

51.9% – Official Leave vote percentage

17.6 million – Number of People who Vote Brexit

Two – The number of time’s Theresa May’s Deal has been rejected in the House of Commons

312-308 – Number of MPs who voted Against and for a no-deal

Two Years – Period Since giving notice with Article 50

104 Weeks – Period since negotiations began on Brexit between UK and EU

£274 billion – UK exports to the EU (44% of all UK exports)

£341 billion – UK imports from the EU were (53% of all UK imports).

£13 Billion – Gross British Annual Contribution to the EU Budget

