Top 30 Prospects: #25-21

Welcome back to my rankings of the Montreal Canadiens’ top 30 prospects. This is part three of seven, which will cover prospects ranked 25-21. It’s important to keep in mind that this is entirely my opinion and I am not a scout. In many cases, the difference between two prospects is minimal. The season breakdown and talent analysis for each prospect is meant to be as concise, while still maintaining a high level of detail and information. Each profile will also be accompanied by a explanation ranking, in efforts to provide a fair and objective rationale behind my ranking.

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Introduction and Honourable Mentions

#30-26

#25-21

#20-16

#15-11

#10-6

#5-1

25) Patrick Holland

Acquired via trade with Calgary (January 13, 2012)

RW/C | 6’00” 185 | Hamilton Bulldogs (AHL)

Regular Season: 57GP 6G 11A 17P

Following a second half surge in his rookie year, expectations were high for the sophomore forward. Not only did Holland fail to reach them, but he failed to make any meaningful progression. Holland’s year actually got off to a good start, performing well in Hamilton and playing five games for the Canadiens. Holland improved his two-way game to a degree, but found himself buried in the lineup quite often, unable to create quality scoring chances.

Despite the lack of success at the professional level, Holland’s clearly talented. Holland is, first and foremost, a playmaker. His vision is well above-average and he connects with difficult passes more often than not. He reads the play a high level and, when he’s going, he creates many chances off the rush. Holland’s saucer pass is one of the best on the ‘Dogs and he has a knack for finding players at top speed. However, he doesn’t always show confidence in his abilities and over-analyses in-game situations.

Holland also has a smooth set of hands. He rarely will pull a highlight reel move around a defender, instead using hands to create space for himself. He’s not the biggest player by any means and it shows as he gets pushed off the puck quite easily. Holland is not a goal-scorer, and often seems timid of the high traffic areas. Additionally, Holland could stand to improve his merely average shot. He doesn’t own breakaway speed, but he’s shifty and moves well laterally.

Slowly, Holland has become a solid two-way player. He’s a smart penalty killer and uses an active stick to disrupt the opposition. He’s prone to getting outmuscled along the walls, which sometimes renders him useless. In the WHL, he occasionally showed flashes of aggressiveness, but those have been non-existent since turning pro.

Holland is trending downwards. He’s a bit of a perimeter player and doesn’t have enough skill to justify it. He has to learn to be engaged and add more mass to his slender frame in order to get pushed around less. Entering the final year of his ELC, Holland needs to finally take the next step.

Ranking Explanation: Holland’s somewhat soft game and lack of a true, high-end skill hurt him in the rankings. His track record is enough to propel him over Jake Evans and Mark MacMillan, but he doesn’t get any higher because his development has been less than impressive. Compared to Morgan Ellis, he appears to have just a bit more upside, as a fair projection for him is probably a decent third line winger.

24) Mike Condon

Signed as a Free Agent (May 8, 2013)

G | 6’02” 198 | Wheeling Nailers (ECHL)

Stats: 39GP 23W 12L 4SOL, 0.931 SV%, 2.18 GAA

The Canadiens signed Condon as an NCAA Free Agent following a dominant season with Princeton University and an extremely impressive stint in the AHL with the Houston Aeros. In his first season in the Canadiens organization, Condon was outstanding. Condon led the ECHL in SV% by a wide margin and finished second in GAA among rookies. Condon performed well in a three-game stint with Hamilton and certainly could have played there for the entire season.

Condon combines great size, technique, and athleticism to become a rather spectacular goaltender. He moves extremely well laterally, giving him the ability to make highlight reel saves. His movements are quick and precise, especially down low. He’s exceptional at quickly closing the fivehole and dropping into the bufferfly. He’s a solid puckhandler, too; although he could stand to work on his decision-making.

Condon possesses a quick glove hand and rarely seems to get handcuffed. He doesn’t back down from flashing the leather and aggressively challenges shooters. His blocker side can be frustratingly inconsistent–some games he’s impossible to beat there and others it’s appears to be his biggest weakness.

Condon’s technique is very good. Like all goaltenders, there’s room for improvement. He stays in the butterfly for too long and can get lazy on the short side. He challenges shooters well, but his angles must improve. Condon fights through traffic well and reacts quickly. Condon is a focused goaltender, but his bad games are really bad. He lacks the mentality that many of the NHL’s starting netminders have.

Where Condon plays next season depends entirely on what the Canadiens do with Dustin Tokarski and Peter Budaj. Joey MacDonald is also in the organization, which means that Condon might end up in the ECHL again if no one is moved.

Ranking Explanation: There’s obviously a wild variance with goaltenders. Condon’s upside is largely unknown, but he seems that he could be a solid AHL starter at the very least. He’s further along in development that Hayden Hawkey and also has shown continual improvement, unlike Patrick Holland and Mark MacMillan. He seems a safe bet to become at least an impact player at the professional level, which is better than everyone below him. But at the same time, he lacks the mental make up of Dustin Tokarski or Zach Fucale, which when combined with their superior technique, pushes him behind them by a considerable amount.

23) Brett Lernout

Drafted: 73rd, 3rd, 2014

D | 6’04” 202 | Swift Current Broncos (WHL)

Regular Season: 72GP 8G 14A 22P | Playoffs: 6GP oG 1A 1P

The Habs traded up to select Lernout following a strong season with the Swift Current Broncos. Lernout improved his puck skills, skating, and became a smarter player. He began to log heavier minutes as the season progressed and emerged as a good shutdown defender.

Lernout is a physical specimen and he knows it. Few players can match his brute strength and he’s got tons of room to grow. He can lay absolutely massive hits and is extremely aggressive along the boards. He clears the crease with a purpose and doesn’t back down from anyone. He’s also a more than willing pugilist. He’s a very hard player to play against because of his natural aggressiveness. But he doesn’t just run around looking for hits. He understands positional hockey and rarely takes himself out of position to make a hit. He possesses an active stick, which he uses extremely well to defend, particularly off the rush. He owns good hockey sense, but his decision making must continue to improve. Down low, he can get too overzealous in chasing the puck carrier, taking himself out of position.

For a player of his stature, Lernout’s skating ability is quite impressive. Both lateral movement and top-end speed are surprisingly good. Additionally, Lernout’s first few steps are solid and he can use his long, powerful stride to out-skate fast forwards. There’s still room to improve, but no doubt his skating is well above-average. Using his mobility, he’s able to close the gap quickly on forwards. He’s aggressive in his gap control and doesn’t leave much room for players to beat him. Rarely does he get beat in one-on-one situations.

Lernout offensive ability mainly stems from his shot. He owns a rocket from the point, but his accuracy needs work. It’s a similar story for his outlet pass–crisp, but can be erratic. He’s shown some quality offensive instincts, but in that regard there hasn’t been much consistency. In his own zone, Lernout loses the puck too often. He blindly clears it, even if better options are available. On the powerplay, he actually performs quite well, especially as the trigger man. He typically shoots for a rebound or a deflection, but there’s no doubt he has the ability to hammer the puck past the goaltender. With more confidence and powerplay time, Lernout could improve his point totals significantly.

At this point, Lernout is a long-term project. Considering his late-’95 birthday, he very well could use an overage year in the WHL. He spent much of his time with Brycen Martin, a talented, but not particularly impressive defensive player. He experienced tremendous growth throughout the season, but he still has a long way to go.

Ranking Explanation: Lernout’s unique skill set earns him a place on this list. Compared to Josiah Didier and Morgan Ellis his skill set is more impressive–he’s meaner than both and a better skater than both, while have slightly less offensive upside than Ellis. Lernout’s skating, size, and physicality push him over Jake Evans, Mark MacMillan, and Patrick Holland–all skilled, but players who don’t necessarily seem to fill a role.

22) Connor Crisp

Drafted: 71st, 3rd, 2013

LW | 6’03” 218 | Sudbury Wolves (OHL)

Regular Season: 67GP 28G 27A 55P | Playoffs: 5GP 1G 1A 2P

Just a short year ago, many were left wondering why Crisp was selected. A year later, it’s became more apparent, as Crisp improved considerably and posted a respectable season with Sudbury. Crisp went from being a goon tasked to protect the Erie Otters’ best players, to a legitimate goal-scoring threat (even if the point totals don’t necessarily reflect that). Crisp improved his shot, puck handling, playmaking, skating–you name it, he improved it.

I believe that many underestimate Crisp’s skill level. For a hulking player, he’s got an impressive set of hands. Crisp can beat defenders in one-on-one situations and combines his frame and hands exceptionally well to make him a force when coming off the wall. Around the net, he’s got soft hands and good hand-eye coordination. He needs to quicken his release, but shooting power and accuracy are both well above-average. He makes short, smart passes, but by no means can he confused for a high-end playmaker as he’s certainly lacking the vision department.

Crisp also uses his frame well, particularly in the offensive zone. He’s extremely hard to push around when he decides to occupy space. Wins more puck battles than he loses, but he doesn’t use his frame as often as he should. Crisp is also a big time hitter–and a clean one at that (PIMS are mostly lazy stick infractions). He can hammer players, but probably doesn’t do it as often as he should. Additionally, Crisp lacks consistency, especially in the compete department.

Crisp’s defensive game has improved–even seeing penalty kill time every now and then–but there’s still work to be done. He typically exits the zone too quickly and loses track of his man too easily. Aside from the lack of consistency, Crisp’s biggest problem is his mediocre skating ability. It’s certainly improved, but he’s quite lumbering and it hampers his ability to make plays off the rush.

Although Crisp has more skill than people realize, it’s not enough to be a top-six player. His upside appears to be a great fourth line player or an average complementary third liner. His skating needs serious work, as does his decision-making and compete level. After a solid stint in Hamilton, he appears to be turning pro next year.

Ranking Explanation: At this stage, there are better players than Crisp, with more proven track records and higher skill levels. Jake Evans, Mark MacMillan, and Patrick Holland all have similar upside, but Crisp’s tools make him appear to be the more attractive option to become a NHLer. Crisp is further ahead in development than Brett Lernout and has more skill.

21) Dalton Thrower

Drafted: 51st, 2nd, 2012

D | 6’00” 205 | Vancouver Giants (WHL)

Regular Season: 42GP 12G 27A 39P

It was the most important year of Thrower’s career and he stepped up in a big way. Two seasons ago, Thrower ran into injury troubles and struggled while on the ice. As a result, he was sent back to the WHL for his overage year. Thrower wore the ‘C’ for the Vancouver Giants and led the way from the blue line, both offensively and defensively. He improved in every area and ultimately put himself back on the radar.

Thrower has one of the most unique skill sets in the prospect pool, combining a high level of skill and toughness. He’s a fantastic performer on the powerplay, where he uses his cannon of a shot and good hands. He owns an exceptionally hard shot, which he has begun to throw low on net and get through traffic. He also makes good passes and sees the ice well in the offensive zone. Thrower’s hands are quite good for defenceman, owning the ability to do spectacular things with the puck. Thrower’s mobility has improved–building upon his already above-average top speed and acceleration–but still must perfect his stride and improve his pivots.

As mentioned, Thrower is (in the words of Pierre McGuire) “one tough hombre.” He’s a technically impressive fighter who rarely loses. He’s also a heavy open ice hitter, especially in the neutral zone. He loves to step up on forwards and will crush them mercilessly. Sometimes, he crosses a line, as noted by his suspension history. Thrower is also aggressive along the boards and uses stick work just as much as his body.

Thrower’s defensive game has improved tremendously, and it certainly isn’t just another case of an overager dominating lesser opposition. He’s improved his reads, while maintaining his offensively flair and tough-as-nails approach. He still struggles to defend off the rush, particularly against fast forwards. On the penalty kill, he’s quite good and plays his position well. In sustained pressure scenarios, he can get caught running around too much, but all areas of his defensive game have improved.

The issues in Thrower’s game go beyond a less than stellar (albeit improved) defensive game. He’s not the most natural thinker of the game and doesn’t have the on-ice or situational awareness that most top-four defencemen have. However, he certainly the tools to become top-four defender. His recent improvements have been quite encouraging.

Ranking Explanation: Thrower’s skill set is one of the most intriguing on the entire list–and certainly the most intriguing out of all prospects listed so far. His combination of high-end skill and grit make him a more attractive prospect than Josiah Didier, Morgan Ellis, and Brett Lernout. Thrower’s skill level is higher than Crisp’s, while also providing the same sandpaper.

Check back soon for prospects #20-16!