The Switch has been on the market for just over four days, and the headlines are blaring about what has undoubtedly been a successful launch for Nintendo's newest hardware. The Switch had the best initial two-day sales of any Nintendo console in North America, Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime told a New York Times reporter. The same is true in Europe, where Nintendo of Europe announced via press release that the system had "sold more in its launch weekend than any other Nintendo hardware in history."

More discrete country-specific numbers also look strong for the Switch right out of the gate. In Japan, the system has sold just over 330,000 units in three days, according to Famitsu, only slightly less than the ultra-successful Wii did at its launch. GamesIndustry.biz reports the Switch sold 80,000 units in a single day across the UK, while in France, the system has already sold 105,000 units, making it the best-selling console launch of all time in that country, according to Le Figaro.

No matter how you slice it, this sales strength out of the gate is a good sign for Nintendo, which is still struggling to regain its financial footing after the Wii U faltered in the marketplace . At the same time, we should be careful not to assume that a successful launch will mean long-term success for the Switch.

For evidence of why not to jump to conclusions, look no further than Nintendo's last console, the Wii U. Worldwide, that system sold just over 3 million units by the end of 2012, nearly matching the 3.19 million units the original Wii shipped in its first quarter. That includes about 400,000 units in the Wii U's first week on sale in North America, a figure that increased to 890,000 units six weeks after launch. In Japan, the Wii U managed to sell 300,000 systems in its launch weekend, extending to 636,000 units in its first month.

Those are extremely healthy numbers for any console, easily surpassing the slower starts for the Xbox 360 and PS3 and keeping pace with the launch of the Wii. Yet while those other systems all went on to long-term success (especially the Wii), the Wii U recently ended its life as Nintendo's worst-selling home console of all time, with just 13.5 million units shipped. Who knew that impressive first quarter would represent nearly 23 percent of the Wii U's lifetime sales?

We might sound like a broken record on this point, but we'll say it again: the supply constrained period right after a new console launches is not the right time to start evaluating the long-term health of a new gaming platform. That's because, within reason, any major console this side of the Ouya is going to find enough early adopting fans to sell the vast majority of whatever it can put on the market for its first few days and weeks.

This early on, comparing console sales figures can be downright misleading. Look at the Xbox One and PS4. Both systems managed to sell a million units in less than 24 hours, and both sold millions more by the end of 2013. More than three years out, though, the PS4 has sold roughly twice as well as the Xbox One overall, as demand for Microsoft's system has slowed considerably. If you expected a closer long-term sales competition based on a linear projection after a day or even a month of sales, you'd have been very inaccurate.

At launch, the sales pace for a new console depends largely on manufacturing capacity. Earlier this year, Nintendo confirmed that it planned to ship 2 million Switch consoles worldwide by the end of March, when the company's fiscal year ends. It's hard to imagine that there are not at least 2 million dedicated Nintendo fans worldwide who would be eager to snap up all or most of that stock in the system's first few weeks—remember, even the Wii U managed to sell 3 million units worldwide in just over a month (though, to be fair, that was during the holiday spending spree, not in March).

Further Reading Nintendo says 1 million Wii units in North American at launch

But if Nintendo instead managed to ship 3 million Switch units by the end of March, it's safe to assume all or most of them would be snapped up in relatively short order. Previously, Nintendo only shipped 1 million Wii units to North America for that system's launch day—if it had shipped 3 million instead, I imagine almost all of them would have found good homes by the end of 2006.

In each case, this early on, the supply of consoles is much more limiting to sales success than the long-term demand. The first sales for any console target the low-hanging fruit of the gaming market, going to the committed gamers eager to experience the latest in living room gaming hardware as soon as possible. The time that a new platform has to really prove its market strength is after the launch hype has died down and the early adopter crowd has been exhausted.

Almost any major console can rack up a few million sales quickly. Attracting the next few million buyers, though, requires a strong software library, good reviews, and word of mouth to drive less knee-jerk potential console consumers to lay down some cash.

Again, this isn't meant to downplay what is definitely a strong launch for the Switch or to suggest the system will end up like the Wii U. At the same time, there's no particular reason to expect the Switch will sell as well as the Wii (or the PS4 or the Xbox One, etc.) either. Despite the hyperbole of Nintendo's press releases and quick-hit, media-driven cross-console comparisons, it's much too early to say anything solid about the long-term prospects of the Switch.

We'll have to see how the Switch continues to sell through the summer and into the holiday season before we know if it has the legs to attract significant sales (and, in turn, perhaps renewed attention from big-budget third-party developers). Until then, let's all enjoy Nintendo's early success without reading too much into it.