Why Frank Reich will likely go for it on 4th down way more than Chuck Pagano did

Here's the scenario: The Colts are leading by 10 points and have the ball fourth-and-2 from their own 48-yard line late in the third quarter.

What does new Indianapolis Colts coach Frank Reich do? Play it safe and punt or let Andrew Luck and company try to put the game all but out of reach with a first down?

Reich’s predecessor, Chuck Pagano, faced a scenario like this – fourth down with his team leading by 10 or fewer points in the first three quarters — 50 times in six seasons and went for it three times.

Reich watched the Eagles go for it in that scenario three times in a single game last season.

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“There’s no question that a byproduct of working in Philly and seeing how sometimes conventional football wisdom can be challenged and it needs to be updated in ways," Reich said of fourth-down strategy while at the owners meetings last week in Orlando. "I think it was indicative of how aggressive (Eagles coach) Doug (Pederson) was on fourth down and the consistency of that and the trust in the players to get it done.

"I think there’s a lot to be learned from that.”

The Eagles have been the least likely team to punt in neutral situations — i.e., midfield without the score or time remaining likely to influence decisions — the last two seasons at 35.7 percent. They are sixth in success rate among teams with at least three attempts, picking up a first down 77.8 percent of the time. (The Colts punted 80 percent of the time, 22nd, converting 1 of 2 attempts.)

Fans love watching their team go for it on fourth down ... if it makes it.

The Eagles did it twice in a 27-24 victory over the Giants on Sept. 24, converting a pair of fourth-and-1s into touchdowns. But they also fell short on a fourth-and-8 at the Giants' 43; only a goal-line stand keeping New York from tying the score right before the half.

"Pederson’s unsuccessful attempt spurred a week of criticism and second-guessing from fans and media alike, never mind that the Eagles beat the Giants, in part because they had converted on two other fourth downs," wrote Eagles beat reporter Jeff McLane in the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Colts fans are certainly familiar with failed fourth-down attempts; a certain fake punt attempt against the Patriots will likely never completely fade from memory.

But statistical analysis shows teams should go for it on fourth down more often than they have traditionally, and they are beginning to fall in line with the numbers.

“I thought it paid off a ton," Reich said of the data leading Pederson to go for it more often on fourth down. "One of the analogies I’ve used is, say you are third-and-8 on the 42-yard line and all of a sudden if we get it to fourth-and-3 or less, we have the green light. If we get it to fourth-and-4, it’s yellow, precede with caution.

"I think it does free you up to be more aggressive when you know you are not just going on gut feeling. I think there is instincts in it. I don’t think a computer can do that as the head coach. It wasn’t like in Philadelphia we went with the chart every single time. But it was a guideline. What you find is the overall context of it is you can be more aggressive than you can think.”

It's important to note that the number of fourth-down plays are small even for the most aggressive team. Statistical analysis at pro-football-reference.com gives Philadelphia credit for gaining 7.6 points per season on fourth-down decisions the last two years; Pagano's fourth-down decisions were worth 2.9 points per season.

And the fact Pederson was successful in Philadelphia does not mean Reich will be able to transfer the same nerve and magic in Indianapolis.

But it sounds as if Colts fans can expect more fourth-down attempts.

"From Day 1, (the players) know this is what we are going to do and let's embrace it because we are not going to stop," Reich said.