Over the course of a championship week, you can safely bank on a few cliches from your game coverage.

Admittedly, I played some of those familiar notes the last few days.

Arguing for a secret X-factor in the title game.

Taking a head-to-head look at the head coaches involved.

And unveiling a positional breakdown of both teams to determine which will have the edge at kickoff.

We the media are beholden to tendencies just like the teams, players and coaches we cover. And that's OK because that's life.

Specific to this week's championship, the Patriots' and Chiefs' battle for AFC supremacy will truly boil down to a single time-tested idea: how well an underdog defense can pressure and affect a prolific passer.

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Patrick Mahomes is the driver and engine of the offensive machine that has single-handedly propelled the Chiefs to the cusp of Super Bowl LIII. In his first season as a starter, Mahomes set league records, earned an All-Pro nod and should soon be named the league's next MVP. His raw talent is such that when refined it can become truly unstoppable.

We have never seen a player quite like him.

So can the Patriots, slated as three-point underdogs, pester Mahomes into making mistakes? Will they coax two interceptions out of him like they did in their regular-season meeting? Can they confuse the second-year standout into a losing effort?

The truth is ... maybe. The better plan for New England is to contain the cast around him and eliminate places for Mahomes to turn.

Because if there's ever a time to delay a dynastic Kansas City run led by the 23-year-old dynamo, it's Sunday. Should the Chiefs' infrastructure remain intact and their stars together, the franchise will compete for championships for years to come. Kansas City is chasing what New England has enjoyed for almost two decades and now secured the most important pieces.

For now, here's how the Pats can prolong the NFL present by throwing the brakes on its future.

Let's get to it.

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TIME TO MAN UP

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Starting in the back end, the foundation of New England's defensive plan must be man coverage.

All season, the strength of this defense rested in its secondary. The strength of that secondary was and is the ability to play sticky man coverage, plus various combinations that have often led to waiting quarterbacks. And waiting quarterbacks tend to suffer; be it from coverage sacks, pressure, turnovers or other problems.

Mahomes knows. During the regular season, he completed just 43.2 percent of his passes after holding the ball for at least three seconds and threw a league-leading eight interceptions in those situations, per Pro Football Focus. Down the stretch, no defense dialed up more man-to-man or forced tighter throws than New England's.

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The Patriots pass defense has been one of the best units in the NFL since returning from their bye in Week 12.



The @Patriots have forced the highest rate of tight window throws and have generated the highest rate of pressure against opposing quarterbacks.#NEvsKC | #GoPats pic.twitter.com/uqHf8G4WKy — Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 16, 2019

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Stephon Gilmore, the Pats' top cornerback and lone defensive Pro Bowler, thrives shadowing opposing No. 1 wideouts. Undrafted rookie J.C. Jackson shot up the depth chart and has remained there because of his ability to win consistently mano a mano. Just ask JuJu Smith-Schuster, whom Jackson successfully trailed in Week 15, allowing four catches on 10 targets for 40 yards.

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Per @SportsInfo_SIS, here is the man coverage tendencies for each defense this season.



The Patriots and Broncos are the most man-heavy teams, followed by surprisingly the Steelers, who have traditionally been a zone-heavy team under Mike Tomlin. pic.twitter.com/zKFjHcWAa9 — Keegan Abdoo (@KeeganAbdoo) December 28, 2018

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Furthermore, tight man-to-man coverage appeared to be a deterrent to Kansas City's deep passing game this season.

According Ryan McCrystal of Bleacher Report and DraftAce, Mahomes targeted receivers at least 10 yards downfield on 47 percent of his attempts against zone and only 34 percent of his throws versus man; a drop from one of the NFL's top-five highest rates when facing zone to the seventh-lowest against man.

Eliminating explosive plays is an absolute must for New England on Sunday. Nothing is rarely more important in any game. Convince the Chiefs to handicap themselves during a championship, and you're already winning.

Plus, if you'll recall, Mahomes' longest touchdown passes in Foxborough in Week 6 were facilitated by zone coverage busts.

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Whereas earlier that night, a heavy dose of man coverage helped keep Mahomes -- and consequently Kansas City -- out of the end zone over the first half; the only game in which that happened to the Chiefs all year. In concert with a late-arriving pass rush, it also yielded an interception before halftime.

So long as the Patriots tackled well, they were fine. That will also hold true this weekend.

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Overall, Mahomes' performance back in October was appreciably worse when firing into man coverage than zone. Man-to-man is by no means a cure-all for the myriad of problems he presents. No such thing exists, and Chiefs coach Andy Reid will surely holster his best man-beating concepts Sunday, ready to fire them out through Mahomes whenever necessary.

Nonetheless, man is clearly the Patriots' best down to down coverage option, one followed by a close second. More on that later.

First, there is a clear and present danger to address when playing continuous man-to-man against Kansas City: Tyreek Hill.

Even for a defense that ranked second in the league against deep passes, Hill demands unique and extra attention. He possesses first-rate speed, quickness, acceleration and elusiveness. The 24-year-old All-Pro said Friday he smiles when he spots press coverage.

Why? Probably because he knows he can undress any cornerback at the line -- even cover artists like Jalen Ramsey.

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If you're wondering why Ramsey was giving Hill cushion later on in the game... corners (and coordinators) don't forget plays like this, even if the WR isn't targeted. Hill has developed an absolutely wicked release at the line. pic.twitter.com/OS4wRSBo9g — Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) October 8, 2018

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So what are the Patriots to do? Well, start with deploying a safety over the top.

Hill runs a full route tree, but according to Pro Football Focus more than half of his yards this season arrived via deep passes. Against New England in October, that percentage shot up to 82. When Hill is positioned outside on passing downs, the Patriots ought to shade the deep safety in single-high coverages toward him and/or employ brackets (AKA man-to-man double teams). That should significantly lessen the threat he poses.

The Pats must also understand when Hill's aligned in the slot, two-deep coverage may not be their best solution. Out of empty formations, Kansas City tends to send him up the seam from that position to split opposing safeties, per ESPN's Greg Cosell.

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Tyreek Hill exploited the Patriots secondary in Week 6 – torching them for 3 deep receptions, 116 yards and 2 touchdowns on shots targeted 20+ yards downfield. pic.twitter.com/nRBSk0PayH — PFF (@PFF) January 17, 2019

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Tyreek Hill broke the PFF record for most receiving yards on deep passes this season! pic.twitter.com/FmOd5uG22e — PFF (@PFF) January 3, 2019

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The Chiefs' next most potent weapon against man-to-man is tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce has been the focal point of the Patriots' defensive plans ever since he arrived as one of the league's premier tight ends. They jam him at the line and double him in obvious passing situations, typically with strong safety Patrick Chung and another back-seven teammate.

Considering New England has surrendered at least 40 points in three of its last four meetings with Kansas City, the time has come to tweak those plans.

In critical first-half situations Sunday, Gilmore should get a crack at Kelce. He gives up four inches and 50-plus pounds to his fellow All-Pro, but there is no better man-to-man defender currently in the league. Gilmore's physical, sound and athletic.

Allow a teammate -- a defensive end or nearby linebacker -- to apply the jam and let No. 24 do the rest. Additionally, by freeing Chung of his usual duties, the versatile safety could capably fill other vital roles: covering running backs, spying Mahomes, robbing short crossing routes or blitzing. No Patriots defender is more Swiss Army Knife than Chung.

Lastly, there is precedent for Gilmore covering talented tight ends. When he was a Buffalo Bill, he occasionally manned up against Rob Gronkowski. And who's helped New England prepare for Kelce this week in practice?

None other than Gronk.

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Stephon Gilmore at the podium Thursday. Gilmore said he will cover whoever the coaches ask him to cover. Gilmore said he has covered tight ends before. Gilmore could cover Travis Kelce Sunday. pic.twitter.com/YnmCWKoTFP — PatriotMaven (@PatriotMavenSI) January 17, 2019

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If Gilmore fails, New England can always revert back to its usual Chung-plus-one plan. Against it, Kelce managed only five catches for 61 yards in the regular season. However, he happily went catchless in the second half when Kansas City hung 31 points on the Pats.

Suffice to say, the Chiefs don't necessarily go as Kelce does. That honor goes to Mahomes and, secondarily, Hill.

But shadowing Hill with Gilmore and a safety over top would be self-defeating design. The greatest benefit to having a player like Gilmore is he can single-handedly erase an opposing receiver, allowing a defense to allocate its resources elsewhere. Hill, as mentioned, demands said resources.

Thus, the Pats should allow Jackson to follow Hill with safety help and take their chances with Jason McCourty on Sammy Watkins or Chris Conley. If Belichick wants to eliminate the Chiefs' top weapons -- as he's for done to opponents for decades -- those weapons are easily identifiable.

With 1,479 receiving yards and a dozen touchdowns in the regular season, Hill became Kansas City's No. 1 option, followed closely by Kelce (1,336 yards and 10 TDs). Everyone else is a distant third or fourth by at least 800 yards.

Better to take your chances with the supporting cast than the stars.

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FROM MAN TO MATCH

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Remember the Patriots' next best coverage option after man-to-man?

That would converting zone into man mid-play AKA "matching."

A hybrid concept, the basic idea is for defenders to read receivers' routes as a play begins and then attach to them in man coverage based on how and where their route developed. The earliest iteration of matching was a Belichick-designed Cover 3 defense that could capably defend four vertical routes (because those type of plays tear Cover 3 apart) by morphing from a coverage that featured three deep defenders into four if so needed.

This family of coverages -- which has grown exponentially since the early '90s -- was scarcely seen in Week 6. However, don't be surprised to see more of it on Saturday. Why? Kansas City loooooves its vertical passing game.

Said former Denver coach Vance Joseph after suffering a second narrow loss to the Chiefs this season: "Everything's vertical and it's deep-over."

And Bill Belichick on Friday: "They (run vertical routes) with everybody."

But back in Week 6, the more common instance of Chiefs receivers being matched was after New England defenders hadn't read them, but the offensive line.

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Seen above, the Patriots' chief wrinkle from the regular-season clash was a Cover 0 look (meaning zero deep safeties and man-to-man across the board).

This was more or less adopted from how the Broncos nearly knocked Kansas City out in Week 4. New England aligned six defenders at the line of scrimmage against Kansas City's five-man offensive line, then rushed all of them with the linebackers and safeties reading whether they drew a blocker. If so, they'd suddenly bail backwards into coverage, while one teammate unfailingly enjoyed a free run at Mahomes.

The Patriots successfully attacked the Chiefs' protections with these "read" pressures, both when Mahomes stood alone in empty sets and had a running back nearby to help stave off pressure.

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The presence of the dropping Patriots was critical because it protected the defense against short crossing routes, a common man-to-man beater. It also allowed New England to potentially rally against screens. And if Mahomes scrambled, there was help at the second level to track him down.

Now like constant man coverage, these Cover 0 pressures are not a magic solution. Knowing how it struggled against them before, Kansas City will have counters ready, so the Patriots better be prepared to stay one step ahead (trap coverage, perhaps?).

Only four defenses during the regular season could claim to have stayed one step ahead of the Chiefs for a period of time, having held them to under 30 points by game's end: the Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers and Ravens. There are two notable commonalities between these defenses.

1) The presence of an elite pass rusher (Von Miller, Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram, etc.)

and

2) The ability to execute elements of match coverage and/or overload looks.

Baltimore flashed both right out of the gates in Week 14. Below, the Ravens force a deep incompletion with their staple three-deep zone blitz on Kansas City's drive. But watch safety Anthony Levine over the middle.

After Baltimore loads up the line of scrimmage, he bails into coverage, covers and communicates to a nearby teammate about the developing crossing route.

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Without an elite pass rusher, this is how New England must get to Mahomes: bring simulated pressure paired with match coverage over the middle and/or man-to-man across the board. The Patriots have been running more packages and disguises this season than they have in a decade.

Sunday is no time to stop. Break Mahomes' protection down, and he will be next.

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DIRTY THE POCKET, BRING DEFENSIVE BACKS

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So here's the worst part about defending Mahomes.

Let's assume you've locked down his best weapons in man-to-man.

Let's check off the pressure box.

And let's say Mahomes is on the run.

In that position, he's still dangerous as hell.

The fact is Mahomes can throw from any platform or angle. Look back to the Ravens game when he converted an impossible fourth-and-9 with under two minutes left to keep Kansas City alive. He'd sprinted right almost to the sideline, then uncorked a 48-yard completion back across the field to a moving Hill.

Successful pressure on Mahomes first requires containment, then dragging him down to the turf. And not necessarily because he wants to scramble all the time. Take it from Patriots defensive tackle Adam Butler.

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Asked Patriots DT Adam Butler what makes defending Patrick Mahomes different from defending a running QB like Deshaun Watson.



Butler: "He's looking to throw. He's not looking to embarrass you. Deshaun Watson is looking to embarrass you and then possibly make the throw." — Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) January 17, 2019

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Mahomes' first and second instincts are truly to find his first and second reads. And when he fails, the pocket typically crumbles. This is when Mahomes, like all quarterbacks, is most vulnerable.

Because otherwise, he's either out of your control beyond the tackle box or perfectly lethal within a clean pocket. Mahomes' 134.2 passer rating while working inside clean pockets during the regular season was the highest produced by a starter since 2006, per Pro Football Focus. The Patriots must crowd Mahomes and make him uncomfortable.

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Patrick Mahomes led all quarterbacks in the regular season with his ridiculous 134.2 passer rating from a clean pockethttps://t.co/nEGvgH3YO5 pic.twitter.com/zmstvu9r4j — PFF (@PFF) January 14, 2019

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How? A standard four-man rush is always ideal. Start there, and start last weekend.

New England did remarkable damage against the Chargers offensive line by executing more stunts than it had in any game all season. Kansas City's offensive line is markedly better than Los Angeles', but the importance of movement stands. Stunts against the weaker points of the Chiefs' line -- the two guards -- should help.

The Patriots picked on the Chargers' guards relentlessly, often looping defensive ends up the middle of the pocket on "TED" stunts because they interfered with Philip Rivers' preferred launching point. For Mahomes, the pass rush plan will be different; likely still forcing the guards to move and communicate, but stunting interior linemen to the outside instead to keep containment.

Back in Week 6, three Patriots defensive tackles beat Kansas City's interior line to register a pressure of Mahomes. Adrian Clayborn, seen below on a stunt, also picked up three quarterback hits working against left tackle Eric Fisher.

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Beyond the fine work of the front four, New England should regularly involve defensive backs within its pressures.

They can better track and sack Mahomes in the event of an extended play or scramble. And again we find precedent as recent as last week, plus many others when considering the aforementioned Cover 0 package and Amoeba defense that started in December.

This season, the Patriots finally made players like Gilmore and safety Devin McCourty credible blitzing threats. And it's opened up a world of pressure possibilities.

Look at 190-pound nickelback Jonathan Jones firing up the middle like a linebacker against the Chargers.

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Or Chung flying in on a delayed rush to crack Philip Rivers:

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And little-used safety Obi Melifonwu blitzing off the edge before a quick, harmless checkdown:

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Almost 20 years ago, Bill Belichick started cementing his Hall of Fame legacy by conquering league MVPs in the postseason, en route to lifting the Lombardi.

First there was Rams quarterback Kurt Warner in 2001.

Then co-MVPs Peyton Manning and Steve McNair in 2003.

And Manning once more in 2004.

All these seasons later, with the Patriots near the end of their dynastic road, Belichick may be at it again.

Mahomes isn't yet the announced MVP, but he should be come Feb. 2 at the NFL Honors, which are held one day before the Super Bowl. The only question is where the 23-year-old be will be: Stuck in his hotel room preparing for the big game or taking a bittersweet stroll to center stage because two weekends earlier Belichick and the Patriots had cleared his calendar.