Summary:

For Dublin’s main course of the evening, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier meets “Irish” Joe Duffy. Before starting off into the skill set of Joseph Duffy, it’s important to note that his standing game is largely timing & movement based. On initial view of his standing guard, Joe’s low hands don’t suggest a “Good” risk management rating. However as you watch film on Duffy, you’ll begin to see his “robot-like” systematic & technical approach. Though Joe’s excellent timing ties in his countering off head movement & deceptive speed changes, it’s his footing that actually supports/dictates his game. Footwork & timing will be crucial against a Southpaw like Dustin, luckily Joe has faced many Southpaws in his career. In watching said film, Duffy’s footwork is like literal clockwork. He consistently looks to set attack angles or achieve “the outside foot position” that Orthodox/Southpaw fighters battle for. From here, he’ll prod/feint his way in drawing out counters or defensive weaknesses.

Both Joe & Dustin’s footwork takes place in what I refer to as “engaged range”(not hanging back to counter nor consistently blitzing forward). When fighting in this range a technical skill set is a must, however it’s often the faster/more aggressive man who dictates. Both men show to be technical & athletic but I give the speed advantage to Duffy(especially in the striking dept). That said, Dustin Poirier has shown more fight to fight improvements in every area since moving back up to Lightweight. At Featherweight it was clear he was diminished by weight cutting , as we saw a talented & aggressive fighter struggling with what his body could output/absorb. Despite being hurt and or dropped in 6 of his last 10 fights, Dustin’s showed to take shots much better at this weight.

I expect a physically prepared & technically improved Poirier, and with that in mind, I chose to focus on his core tendencies for my analysis. Defensively, Dustin will often revert to a “shell defense” which will traditionally open up body shots & uppercuts. Though Duffy utilized uppercuts more in his Boxing career, he has shown a proven MMA arsenal of body attacks. For me however, Dustin’s biggest defensive liability in this fight is his tendency to drop his right hand on entries/pocket exchanges. This in particular opens him up to a left hook, which just so happen to be Joe’s most accurate & well timed punch. Duffy consistently through the contest will look to time opponents on their way in, or make them pay on his/their way out of the exchanges. That all being noted, a similar truth can be told from the other side.

Though Duffy possesses good head movement & rolls well with punches, he also will keep a low lead hand/guard. Despite keeping his chin tucked to his shoulders, Duffy is still open for right hooks. As fate would have it, Dustin carries an aggressive & accurate right hook. When feeling in stride, Poirier will tac on/often fire nice straight left in recent fights(attributed to his boxing skill work in which he’s recently done plenty). This all being said, I feel Dustin’s best chances striking will be through kicks. Duffy has shown a susceptibility to leg kicks given his stance, and Dustin can exploit this/create openings should he choose. Poirier’s best kick is his left body kick, and could be doubly effective if he mixes in the left high kick. Though Duffy has shown to be defensively sound, he leans heavy to the right side of his guard. You can effectively block kicks from this style, but we’ve also seen guys lean low to block a body kick and instead receive a headshot(Nogueira vs Herring 3).

If Dustin can’t shift the momentum standing, I suspect he’ll follow his natural suit of forward cage attack pressure. From here, expect Dustin to mix dirty boxing with TD attempts in effort to test Duffy’s ground/neutralize him standing at the very least. Duffy however is used to this approach in past fights, and has shown good cage & TD defense. Given the styles & mat times in both men’s career, I don’t expect long grappling stalemates . On the ground both men are multi-talented submission artists, with the key difference I see here being their scrambling ability. Dustin primarily looks to sweep or transition technically, where as Joe creates & capitalizes on scrambles, where he’s shown to sharp shoot subs in transition. Poirier has shown to give his back in scrambles & has even lost rounds to it in the past.

Dustin has also shown susceptible in past fights to Triangle Chokes(though never officially caught). This is due to his general posture & hand fighting(or lack of) when on top. This could be something to look for given it’s Duffy’s favorite submission(6 finishes Pro & Am career). This fight is so fun on paper that it felt like a crime to try and breakdown. But after doing so I gotta side with Joe Duffy’s technical consistency to get it done inside the distance. I suspect he’ll be one the more if not most expensive Fantasy picks on the card. That said, he’s also a 5 round main event fighter with a 93% finish rate.

Official Pick: Duffy – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Bout scratched due to injury.