Sanders and Clinton campaign buttons. | AP Photo/Mary Altaffer New California poll shows big Clinton lead, with major variables

A new statewide poll shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding 51-38 percent lead over Bernie Sanders in California — just a week after another major poll suggested a Democratic dead heat.

The new Hoover Institution Golden State poll, released Tuesday, underscores what experts say may be the two biggest question marks in the upcoming primary on June 7: how many “no party preference” and millennial voters will actually turn out at the polls.


The survey shows Clinton with a robust 13-point lead over Sanders. That's a marked difference from last week’s Public Policy Institute of California poll, which showed Clinton ahead of Sanders by a slim 46-44 percent. The latest Hoover poll was conducted of 1,700 California residents from May 4-16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Hoover poll shows Sanders with a 2-1 lead among millennial voters — and a 40-point lead with “no party preference” voters.

The poll also showed Republican nominee Donald Trump with 66 percent support in California — a considerable drop from the nearly 80 percent support GOP nominee Mitt Romney enjoyed among his party’s base in the state’s 2012 presidential primary.

Bill Whalen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, says that the widely varying results in the Democratic race may reflect that in California, “there’s no predictor for who, exactly, is going to cast a ballot."

“There are two big questions on the Democratic side,’’ said Whalen. “How many 'no party preference' voters will turn out — and how many of them will be able to vote” on June 7, when 475 Democratic pledged delegates are at stake.

Under the rules of California’s June 7 primary, only registered Republicans can cast ballots in the GOP primary, but “no party preference” voters can cast ballots in the Democratic primary for president, as long as they specifically request a Democratic ballot.

A Los Angeles Times investigation revealed tens of thousands of state voters may have mistakenly been registered in the American Independent Party — a minor party in California — instead of being registered as “no party preference,’’ which would bar them from voting in the Democratic primary. Following the stories, data studies later showed nearly 32,000 Californians re-registered before the deadline of May 23.

"It could be that Bernie Sanders will be crying foul on Wednesday (after the primary) because of people who turned out to vote — and couldn’t,’’ Whalen said.

But Whalen says polls may also be wildly variable because of another issue -- it's unclear whether millennials, many of them already out of class an on summer vacation, will make an effort to cast a ballot.

“The election is the first week in June, when UCLA is in exam week, and many other community colleges have already concluded studies,’’ he said. “It may end up showing that Sanders should have spend more of his time on college campuses, reminding his voters about the importance of June 7.”

In the U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Boxer, the Hoover Golden State Poll showed California Attorney General Kamala Harris holding a 26-13 lead over her Democratic challenger, Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Republican attorney Tom Del Beccaro and mediator George “Duf” Sundheim, both former California state party GOP chairs, along with Republican activist Ron Unz, get 6 percent each in the race.

Under the rules of California’s “top two” primary system, which allows for the top two candidates of either party to advance to the general election, the poll showed it appears Harris and Sanchez will face off in November.

The full results of the poll can be found here: http://hvr.co/1OYXnpk

