I'd like to share a brief analysis I've conducted on recent Wallabies performances. I've focused entirely on the role the coach and captain play within the team; a combination that doesn't seem to be delivering at present.

Wallabies coaches win ratio (1982 - present)

The average number of tests per coach during these years is 44 with an average win rate of 60.7%. Cheika is currently at 56 tests achieving a win rate of 48.2%. Naturally a coach would likely be retained past the average if they were doing a particularly good job. This is clearly not the case with Cheika.

Eddie Jones v Michael Cheika

In 2005 Eddie Jones was fired for poor performance. At the time he was fired he had the lowest winning percentage of any recent coach. Here's a comparison of Jones' and Cheika's win rates. Jones had a remarkably better win rate against every major team. His total rate was ≈10% better than Cheika's as it stands to date.

Cheika yearly breakdown

Cheika's first full year as coach (2015) was actually quite good with the Wallabies winning 83% of their matches. Even more impressive considering only 2 were home games. Stephen Moore captained all games that year bar 2. The following years were not so fortunate for Cheika's Wallabies.

The Captain's role

If we also consider the performance of the captains during this time we can identify other potential issues. Stephen Moore and Michael Hooper have captained the Wallabies almost an even amount of times to date. Moore's results though have been considerably better. Michael Hooper's win rate as captain has been a mere 37%

Cheika vs All-time (ie. every match, all coaches) win rate %

And finally we compare Cheika's win rate against the all-time win rate for what is almost the World Top 10. The order is by greatest % under the average to greatest % over. There are only 3 teams (Wales, Argentina and Fiji) Cheika's Wallabies have managed to beat more consistently than the historical average.

1982 till now

If we revisit our first chart and consider the average win rate (60.7%) vs Cheika's win rate (48.2%) we can calculate that in order for him to be considered 'average' he would need to win the next 17 games in a row; a highly unlikely feat for a team that hasn't won 2 games in a row since this time last year.