While Minxin Pei warns China against its “perilous” policy in Taiwan, there is fear that China could annex Taiwan. Speaking at Beijing's Great Hall of the People on the 40th anniversary of a key Taiwan policy statement on January 2, Xi Jinping said Taiwan’s quest for “independence” would lead to “disaster.” He pledged efforts for a peaceful “reunification,” while not renouncing the use of force.

Apparently a senior Chinese naval official had said: “We should do what Putin did in Crimea to Taiwan”. In 2014, Kremlin-backed “Little Green Men” seized control of Crimea, and the territory, which has a Russian-speaking majority, later voted to join Russia in a referendum. But the Taiwanese are pro-independence and reject a reunification under a one-China principle that accepts Taiwan as part of China. Hong Kong serves them as writing on the wall that the “one country, two systems” formula is merely lip service.

Despite Xi’s assurance, “Chinese will not fight Chinese,” and his willingness “to create a vast space for peaceful unification,” he has not ruled out military means to prevent Taiwan from “seeking formal independence.” China must, in his words, “reserve the option to take any necessary measure,” though he claims that the threat is aimed at “external forces and at an extremely small number of ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.”

The author says Beijing’s “tough stance toward Taiwan has so far proved counter-productive, bringing no concessions from the government in Taipei,” despite multiple efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically in recent months. China has used its economic clout to pressure countries and international institutions into breaking ties with Taiwan, and has curbed their bilateral trade, cultural exchanges and tourism.

In recent months Beijing increased naval exercises over the strategically important Taiwan Strait. Fighter-bomber sorties, escorted bomber “encirclement flights” and deployment of an aircraft carrier off Taiwan exacerbated tensions with Washington. In November two US warships passed through the strategic waterway, and increased operations there despite opposition from Beijing. “Unless China changes course, an escalating battle of wills with the US could erupt into direct conflict.”

The US fears that any control over Taiwan would allow China to gain direct access to the western Pacific and extend its influence in disputed areas of the East and South China seas, where it has established military bases on reclaimed land. Washington is bound to uphold Taiwan’s peace and security under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, and remain its principal foreign ally and arms supplier. It further complicates the situation since Trump launched a trade standoff with China.

The author says “although China’s economy is far larger, Taiwan has some important sources of leverage. For example, restricting its electronics industry – which forms a vital link between China and global information-technology supply chains – from doing business with the mainland would significantly accelerate the exodus of export-oriented manufacturers from China spurred by rising US import tariffs.”

With its 3 million-member armed forces and the world’s second largest defense budget of $173 billion, China has the overwhelming military edge over Taiwan. But the Taiwanese seem “unfazed.” Last week, their country announced a series of newly designed large-scale military drills for this year aimed at countering China’s renewed threat to use force to gain control over the island. While Taiwan’s armed forces regularly hold such exercises, this year’s drills are “being drafted based on newly adopted tactics for defending against a possible Chinese invasion.”