By Armin A. Amio

Rodrigo Roa Duterte may be the most inscrutable president the Philippines and the world has known, but he may have unwittingly given both the United States and China “a big gift.”

In his piece Duterte changes the South China Sea tone, Graeme Dobell – a journalist-fellow with the Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) – said in spite of the maddening ways of the Philippine President, Duterte was able to deliver “benefits to both China and the United States.”

“His swing towards China offers Beijing all sorts of goodies, from the possibility of a bilateral deal in the South China Sea (SCS) to a chance to unbalance the US rebalance,” he pointed out, noting that Duterte could have “changed the immediate tone of the SCS argument at an otherwise dangerous moment.”

Dobell explained that “the fresh opening [Duterte] offers China creates an important pause in a dangerous chain of events. The volatile president met a volatile moment in the SCS and actually brought the temperature down.”

The arbitral decision at The Hague has thrown the SCS issue in a crisis mode.

“Many feared China’s reaction after its humiliation by The Hague Tribunal. Beaten by Manila on nearly every argument, the worry was that China might lash out by beating up the Philippines—perhaps building a new base on Scarborough Shoal, seized by China in 2012 after a standoff with the Philippines Navy,” wrote the Australian journalist.

United States “President Barack Obama reportedly drew a red line around Scarborough, warning President Xi Jinping of serious consequences if China started to build another base. Perhaps Obama’s red line worked. Or perhaps Beijing decided not to test a lame duck president during an extraordinary US election campaign. Or maybe Beijing opted to turn the other cheek to the humiliation and loss of face delivered by the Tribunal. Or Duterte’s arrival is possibly the game-changer Beijing’s after,” Dobell wrote in the ASPI blog The Strategist.

“Obama can accept the fleeting Duterte benefit—that confrontation with China hasn’t (yet) happened—and head for the door. President Hillary can have the task of wrangling with the maverick who could wreck the alliance. If it’s President Donald, he’ll happily say ‘go to hell too’ and declare the alliance a bankrupt business. Such a business-like response from Trump would be apt, because Duterte has a lot of business he wants to do with China,” he wrote.

A former Australian ambassador to the Philippines, Mack Williams, lined up key factors that may influence how Duterte handles the SCS issue and China:

the Philippines is all too aware that any military confrontation would be catastrophic for them—especially if the US were to use it as a base;

for them—especially if the US were to use it as a base; it wasn’t Duterte who launched the international arbitration case and he’s keen to handle its outcome with extreme caution;

the Philippines is more concerned about fishing rights and oil and gas potential in the disputed area than it is about international navigation; and

in the disputed area than it is about international navigation; and the Philippines–China relationship is also longstanding and complex, with local Chinese dominant in business—often camouflaged by non-Chinese names.

Dobell believes Duterte offers China two tantalizing prospects—the bilateral deal it has always sought in the SCS and a weakening of the US alliance structure.

“At last, Beijing would be getting the sort of shift it wants—using the power of money to create strategic power,” he wrote. “Sometimes the mad and bad throw up unusual chances.”

Dobell has been reporting on Australian and international politics, foreign affairs and defense, and the Asia Pacific since 1975.