Macquarie analysts last month said Nine could afford to pay $100 million per season for the rights it currently has, and that the cricket negotiations loom as the "biggest challenge" for the broadcaster's management team. "The primary risk is that it pays more than this for its rights due to competitive bidding and a belief in the halo effect of major sports," the Macquarie team wrote. "Management has to date been highly disciplined around programming costs, but this is the biggest test of this to date." In 2017, Nine was urged to “step away” from cricket by global investment bank UBS as it was losing $40 million a year by broadcasting it. Nine has held the summer Test rights since the 1970s. The decline in viewership for The Ashes reflects a consumer shift away from traditional TV to streaming platforms. Over the four-year period, audiences for TV in metro areas have shrunk by about 16 per cent. In relative terms, that would put the decline for The Ashes viewership at around 3 per cent.

Additional cricket content could also be behind declines in average audience figures. Streaming rights are not being separated from broadcast rights in the latest deal, which could run for six years, and some commentators have said it could fetch $1 billion. However, Cricket Australia has set aside a package of clips and highlights to tease out interest from internet platforms such as Facebook and Google or telcos such as Telstra and Optus. Loading Seven, Nine and Ten all have growing broadcast video on demand platforms and want to hold onto digital rights along with free to air rights.

Nine has held rights to air Test matches and one-dayers since the 1970s. A source close to a major TV network said there were still big advertising premiums achievable through airing sport that open up times of the day that wouldn’t otherwise attract substantial revenue. Cricket Australia declined to comment on the ratings figures or rights negotiations but it said: "As part of this process, we are focused on achieving the best possible outcome for cricket, including fans, participants and the broader Australian cricket community. "Cricket Australia wants to ensure that cricket is accessible to the widest possible audience while also achieving an outcome that allows us to invest in the future growth of the game.” Cricket Australia chief James Sutherland said in October he expected “unprecedented” interest in the rights.