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1. Jesus Luzardo, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 70 60 60 60 70

Background: Never one to shy away from risky high ceiling/high reward prospects early in the draft, Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo grabbed talented southpaw Jesus Luzardo – fresh off of Tommy John surgery – in the third round three years ago. Luzardo’s tenure in DC would last roughly a year before Rizzo & Co. flipped the budding star – along with wicked reliever Blake Treinen – in exchange for veteran relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Last season the talented southpaw leapfrogged his way through the minor leagues, going from High Class A to the Texas League and then finished it off with four starts in the PCL. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound lefty tallied a career high 109.1 innings of work in 2018, fanning a 129 and issuing only 30 walks. He capped off his rapid ascension through the heart of the minors with a tidy 2.88 ERA and a 2.94 FIP. For his career, Luzardo’s averaging 10.4 strikeouts and just 2.1 walks with a 2.53 ERA in 152.2 innings.

Analysis: As if acquiring the unhittable Blake Treinen wasn’t enough, the Athletics somehow swindled the Nationals out of Luzardo, a budding top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. The Stoneman-Douglas High School product attacks hitters with a plus-fastball sitting comfortably in the 95- to 97-mph range and can touch a tick or two higher on occasion. He’ll complement the heater with two plus-secondary offerings: a tightly spun curveball that he varies the velocity and break on and a fading, diving changeup. Luzardo not only possesses an elite arsenal, but he shows poise beyond his years. With respect to his production in Class AA, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old pitchers to post at least a 25% strikeout percentage in the Texas League (min. 70 IP): Shelby Miller and Francis Martes. Miller, of course, has flirted with being a solid #2/#3-type pitcher at times and Martes was regularly listed among the game’s top prospects.

For the record: Luzardo’s strikeout percentage bested the duo and his walk percentage was nearly half as well.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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FB CB SL CH Control Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 70

Background: Part of the University of Florida’s historical pitching staff in 2016. The Gators’ collection of arms included: Puk, Logan Shore, Alex Faedo, Dane Dunning, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Shaun Anderson, and Scott Moss. Oakland snagged Puk, a massive 6-foot-7, 220-pound southpaw, in the opening round – sixth overall – three years ago. After dominating the New York-Penn League during his debut, Puk split his follow-up season between Stockton and Midland, posting a laughable 184-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 125.0 innings of work. Unfortunately for the budding ace, Puk succumbed to Tommy John surgery in early April and missed the entirety of 2018.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote prior to the 2016 draft:

“Between 2011 and 2015 there have been only seven southpaws who averaged more than 12 K/9 in more than 50 innings, three of which were high round draft picks: Carlos Rodon, Danny Hultzen, and Jacob Lindgren. Puk is on pace to do a second time in 2016. Here’s a quote from Richie Martin, Puk’s former teammate and 2015 first round pick, courtesy of Baseball America: “He was throwing 96 to – I think he hit a 99 today.” Needless to say, the fastball velocity is at a premium – and that’s before his handedness is factored in.

Puk’s always missed an above-average amount of bats during his three-year career, fanning nearly 12 hitters every nine innings with the Gators and another nine (in 12 innings) with Team USA. The problem, however, is his lack of control/command – which hasn’t hurt him terribly against much inferior competition.

In three years the big lefty has averaged no fewer than 4.0 walks every nine innings and his walk rate actually took a large step backward in 2016 (4.47 BB/9). Puk’s also been a bit homer-prone as he’s coughed up 18 dingers in just 169 career innings – or about 0.96 HR/9. And, finally, another concern: the data’s rather limited as he’s thrown no more than 78.0 innings at any point in a season.

The quick – and wrong – comparison would be to tie Puk to Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale: both are hard-throwing, lanky lefties. Except that Sale showcased far better control/command. Instead, think of Puk as a similar pitcher to Andrew Miller. Consider the following:

Player IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Andrew Miller 309.0 2.77 9.47 4.08 0.38 A.J. Puk 169.0 3.46 11.66 4.15 0.96

He has front-of-the-rotation caliber potential, but his control/command will likely force him down a notch or two.”

Puk’s control took some promising strides forward prior to the elbow injury – so hopefully the surgical procedure, layoff, and rehab work won’t stunt that growth for too long. Again, he’s a potential front of the rotation caliber arm. Here’s hoping for a full recovery.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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3. Kyler Murray, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/50 55 50 55 65+

Background: Easily the most gifted and athletically-inclined prospect in last year’s draft class, for prep and collegiate players. Murray’s amateur accomplishments at just 20-years-old, reads more like a novel or a lifetime biography. A two-sport star, Murray is the first player to be selected for the Under Armour All-America Baseball and Football games. On the gridiron, Murray, who stands a Mighty Mouse-esque 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds, won the 2014 Gatorade Football Player of the Year Award and capped off his high school career with a perfect 42-0 record as a starting quarterback, which included winning three straight state championships. Murray, of course, won the 2018 Heisman Trophy after throwing for more than 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns for the Oklahoma Sooners. As for his work on the diamond, Murray would appear in just 27 games for the Sooners two years ago, batting a putrid .122/.317/.122 while whiffing in nearly one-third of his 64 plate appearances. Last season, though, he shot up draft lists with a stout, standout campaign for first year Manager Skip Johnson. In 51 games the dynamic center fielder batted .296/.398/.556 with 13 doubles, three triples, and 10 homeruns. He also swiped 10 bags in 14 attempts. Oakland grabbed the gifted athlete in the first round, ninth overall, and signed him to deal worth $4,660,000 – slightly below the recommended slot-bonus. Murray did not make his debut.

Author’s Note: Since the publication of The 2019 Prospect Digest Handbook Murray, of course, has decided to head to the NFL.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about the award winning quarterback/center fielder heading into the draft last season:

“Naturally gifted like very few others. The most impressive part of Murray’s breakout season: he’s playing regularly for the first time since his high school days in 2015. So, yes, some of those pockmarks can be neglected – including his problematic swing-and-miss tendencies. He’s fanned in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances this season. But he’s also walking an above-average amount of the time (12.44%) with tremendous power potential and plus- to plus-plus speed. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, there were only two Big-12 hitters that batted between .280/.380/.540 and .310/.420/.580 (min. 200 PA): Orlando Garcia and Adam Kirsch, both being nondescript prospects during their collegiate careers.

So let’s take a look at his peripherals and compare them to all Division I hitters. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, there were only 17 DI hitters to post a walk rate between 11% and 14%, a strikeout rate between 23% and 26%, with an ISO of at least .240 (min. 200 PA): Forrest Brandt, John Brue, Darian Carpenter, Ryan Cleveland, Mike Corin, Bobby Dalbec, T.D. Davis, Joe DeRoche-Duffin, Ross Haffey, Zack Helgeson, Brewer Hicklen, Bradley Jones, Robby Newman, Jordan Sivertsen, Brandon Thomasson, Trey Truitt, and Aaron Wright.

Beyond Dalbec [and Hicklen], it’s a completely lackluster group. But, again, Murray’s athleticism is off the charts. There’s some All-Star potential, but he’s risky.”

There seems to be some doubt – or at least questions – as to whether the 5-foot-11, 195-pound Murray will choose baseball over football. So the above analysis could all prove to be moot in the coming years. Because of Murray’s lack of experience, as well as splitting his focus between two big time sports, there’s still considerable projection left here.

Ceiling: 4.0- to 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021

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4. Sheldon Neuse, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 40/55 35 50+ 60

Background: Oakland acquired the former Oklahoma Sooner from the Nationals in the same deal that brought over Blake Treinen and Jesus Luzardo. Neuse, the 58th overall player taken in the 2016 draft, put a miserable debut showing in the New York-Penn League behind him and shot through three separate levels in 2017 – going from the Sally up to High Class A before settling in for an 18-game cameo in the Texas League. Oakland bounced the 6-foot, 195-pound third baseman up to the PCL last season. And Neuse’s production took a noticeable nosedive: in a career high 135 games, the former Sooner batted .263/.304/.357 with 26 doubles, three triples, and five homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, was 28% and 40% below the league average threshold.

Analysis: During Neuse’s rocket through three levels two years ago his swing-and-miss tendencies became increasingly troublesome, going from 20.6% to 26.6% to 28.0%. And that trend continued as it spiked to 32.0% last season. Some of that surge – as well as his dip in production – might be explained by his approach at the plate: Oakland seems to be tweaking his swing-path to allow for fewer ground balls and more fly balls in an effort to tap into the power potential he showed during his junior season with Oklahoma. Neuse, by the way, finished with the lowest groundball rate – by a wide margin – last season (38.2%). Despite entering his age-24 season Neuse isn’t a finished product but he’s a lot closer than one would believe: he batted .187/.244/.247 over his first 43 games, but slugged a healthy .295/.331/.404 over his remaining 92 games. Neuse is poised for a big 2019 campaign.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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5. Sean Murphy, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 45/50 30 55 55+

Background: An unheralded, overlooked prospect coming out of Wright State University three years ago. Murphy, the 83rd overall player chosen in 2016, has quietly – because that’s what he does – established himself as one of the top catching prospects in the minor leagues. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound backstop split the 2017 season between Stockton and Midland, ripping through the High Class A but faltering after a second-half promotion up to the Texas League. Unsurprisingly, Murphy found himself back in Class AA for the 2018 season. This time, though, the results were greatly improved. Before his season ended prematurely due to a broken hamate bone Murphy slugged a healthy .288/.358/.498 with 26 doubles, two triples, and eight homeruns in only 68 games. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 16% and 31%.

Analysis: A do-everything-well type of backstop. Murphy shows a solid offensive foundation built around a high contact approach. Never one to flash a lot of power – even during his collegiate days with the Raiders – Murphy’s pop has been trending upward over the past couple of seasons – so much so, in fact, that a 15- to 18-homerun season isn’t out of the question. Defensively speaking, he’s a brick wall behind the dish and has historically saved a few runs better than the average backstop. In terms of ceiling think Willson Contreras circa 2018. The Cubs’ backstop batted .249/.339/.390 and tallied more than 2.5 wins above replacement.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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6. Austin Beck, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 40/45 45 45/50 50+

Background: After the dust had settled Beck’s debut numbers hardly looked the part of a sixth overall pick. The toolsy center fielder “batted” just .211/.293/.349 with only 13 extra-base hits in 41 games in the Arizona Summer League. But in last year’s book I highlighted some reason for optimism for Beck moving forward: after an abysmal start to the year Beck rebounded by slugging .265/.348/.449 over his final 27 games. And that was just a harbinger for things to come in 2018. Despite the horrific-looking production line, Beck was aggressively shoved straight up to the Midwest League. And he passed the challenge with relative ease. In 123 games with the Beloit Snappers, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound outfielder batted .296/.335/.383 with 29 doubles, four triples, and a pair of homeruns. He also matched teammate Lazaro Armenteros’ stolen base mark with eight as well.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote when I listed Beck as the club’s fourth best prospect in last year’s Handbook:

“It’s not all doom-and-gloom for the high round pick. After an atrocious 14-game span to open his career – he batted just .111/.186/.167 – Beck slugged a respectable .265/.348/.449 over his final 27 games. His overall production over that span topped the league average mark by 14%. Beck showed a promising eye and power, but his swing-and-miss tendencies need to be watched moving forward.”

In short: the production improved, as did the strikeout rate (dropped from 29.3% to 21.9%), but his power evaporated like a thimble of water in the Sahara Desert. Beck’s balls in play remained the same and his power output improved in the second half of the year so – again – there’s more hope for the future. Beck uses the field well, spraying balls from foul line to foul line. He’s still a bit raw in center field but should be no worse than an average defender at maturity. Beck doesn’t look like a future star, but there’s enough to a capable starter.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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7. Jameson Hannah, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/55 30/40 55 55 50

Background: A short, stocky center fielder born in Flower Mound, Texas; Hannah was a dynamic table setter for Dallas Baptist University since his true freshman season. A 5-foot-11, 190-pound center fielder, Hannah transitioned easily to the Missouri Valley Conference three years ago, hitting an impressive .332/.407/.546 with eight doubles, a pair of triples, and four homeruns. He also swiped 11 bags in as many tries. Hannah spent the following summer playing in – and dominating – the Coastal Plain League. In 38 games for the Savannah Bananas, he battered the opposition to the tune of .374/.455/.551 with 17 extra-base hits to go along with a stellar 23-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hannah’s production took a noticeable – and power-packed punch – leap forward during his sophomore campaign: in a career best 63 contests, the speedy outfielder slugged .328/.411/.530 with 19 doubles, four triples, and nine homeruns; he also swiped nine bags in 10 tries. Hannah spent the ensuing summer playing in the elite Cape Cod League – though he seemed a touch overwhelmed at times. Playing for the Bourne Braves, the then-19-year-old batted .265/.331/.356 with nine extra-base hits, but his trademark plate discipline faltered at times; he posted a lowly 33-to-12 strikeout-to-walk. Last season Hannah’s production – once again – took another leap forward. He finished his collegiate career with a scorching .360/.444/.555 triple-slash line, setting a career best with 22 doubles to go along with three triples, and six homeruns. He swiped eight bags in nine tries. His strikeout-to-walk ratio: 29-to-29. Oakland drafted the 5-foot-9, 185-pound dunamo in the second round, 50th overall, and signed him to an above-average deal worth $1.8 million. Hannah spent his debut – along with fellow second round pick Jeremy Eierman – in the New York-Penn League, hitting .279/.347/.384 with four doubles, one triple, and one homerun.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about Hannah heading into the draft last season:

“Hannah’s production – especially his plate discipline – has followed a solid steady upward arcing trend throughout his three seasons with the Patriots. He shows a knack for consistently barreling up the baseball with no worse than a slightly better-than-average eye at the plate. The power is enough to keep pitchers and outfielders honest. And he’s been incredibly proficient on the base paths as well. Defensively speaking, Hannah’s been named to the Missouri Valley Conference All-Defensive Team – twice. As for his production, let’s take a look at his numbers from the Cape Cod League two years ago. Consider the following:

Between 2001 and 2016, there were 34 hitters to meet the following criteria: 7-10% walk percentage, a 21-24% strikeout rate, and a sub-.100 Isolated Power. Of those 34, four of them would be considered solid or better prospects during their respective careers: Brian Anderson, Danny Espinosa, Matt Mangini, a former first round pick, and Austin Slater.

Not fantastic odds based on his Cape Cod League, but there’s certainly some solid production among at least a trio of the group (sans Mangini). So now let’s continue and look at his production during his junior campaign. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, there were only four Missouri Valley Conference hitters that met the following criteria: 11-14% walk percentage, a 11-14% strikeout rate, and at least .150 Isolated Power (min. 200 PA). Those four hitters: Logan Blackfan, Matt Duce, Tate Matheny, and Justin Paulsen. The best prospect of the bunch is Matheny, a fourth round pick of the Red Sox three years ago.

Obviously, it’s not a stellar collection of players. So let’s approach it in another way. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, there were only eight Missouri Valley Conference hitters that batted at least .350/.430/.500 (min. 200 PA): Trever Adams, Cody Fick, Casey Gillaspie, Devlin Granberg, Kevin Kaczmarski, Chris O’Brien, Chris Serritella, and Mike Tauchman. The only noteworthy prospects being Gillapise and Tachman.

Again, it’s not overly positive. And while the odds seem a bit long, there have been some solid minor leaguers/big leaguers. Hannah looks like a potential better-than-average big league regular – if his defense grades out as well as his peers/voters think and he continue to progress as a hitter. He seems like a player the Rays or Cardinals would hone in on in the second or third rounds.”

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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8. Lazaro Armenteros, LF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/50 50/55 50 45/50 45+

Background: A highly touted, well-profiled import from Cuba. Armenteros signed with the A’s during the 2016 summer, agreeing to a deal worth $3 million. Nicknamed “Lazarito”, the 6-foot, 182-pound specimen made his anticipated debut two years ago, batting .282/.376/.458 with 18 doubles, eight triples, and eight homeruns to go along with 22 stolen bases between the foreign and domestic rookie leagues. Last season the front office brass aggressively pushed the then-19-year-old up to the Midwest League and Armenteros’ production maintained status quo. In an injury-shortened campaign, the La Habana native slugged .277/.374/.401 with eight doubles, two triples, and eight homeruns. He also swiped eight bags in 14 total attempts.

Analysis: Plenty of potential to drool over. Armenteros’ free-swinging ways, though, may prove to be too much and eventually slice into his ability to fully tap into his talent. After whiffing 105 times in only 388 plate appearances during his debut, his K-rate spiked to full-blown red flag territory in 2018 (33.8%). Consider the following:

Armenteros The Prospect is volatile. And while he no longer looks like a future star, he might be able to carve out a career as a solid bench bat/part time starting outfielder.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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9. Tyler Ramirez, OF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 40 40 45/50 45+

Background: An undersized,mid-round draft pick that continues to exceed expectations as he cruises through the minor leagues. A seventh round pick out of the University of North Carolina three years ago, Ramirez – quietly – turned in an impressive campaign two years ago as he batted .304/.398/.431 between High Class A and Class AA. The 5-foot-9, 185-pound outfielder spent the entirety of 2018 back in the Texas League – likely in an effort to convince the powers-that-be that the previous season wasn’t a mirage. And it wasn’t .Ramirez slugged a healthy .287/.370/.430 with career highs in doubles (35) and triples (four) to go along with 10 dingers. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 21% and 4%.

Analysis: The classic overachieving ‘tweener that has a legitimate shot to develop into a league average starting outfielder thanks to a solid hit tool, strong walk rates, and decent power. The lefty-swinging Ramirez also handles southpaws as well as right-handers too. The lone knock on the former UNC outfielder has been his lack of power, though it’s creeping upward. With respect to his production, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2018, here’s the list of 23-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ total between 115 and 125 with a walk rate between 9.5% and 12.0% in the Texas League (min. 350 PA): Jon Jay and – of course – Tyler Ramirez. Jay, by the way, owns a career big league wRC+ total of 103 – something that seems attainable for Ramirez.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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10. Parker Dunshee, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 50 50 50 50 65 45+

Background: Fun Fact: there were 510 pitchers to eclipse the 100-inning threshold in the minors last season; Dunshee, a seventh round pick out of Wake Forest University in 2017, tied for the 35th best strikeout percentage with 27.8%. The 201st overall player taken, Dunshee turned in one of the more dominating debuts, posting a 48-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to tallying a barely-there 0.67 ERA. The front office brass aggressively challenged the former Demon Deacon and shoved him directly into High Class A. That assignment last all of 12 games before moving him up to the Texas League. Simply put: he continued to dominate. In 24 games, only two of which came in relief, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound right-hander posted a 163-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.33 ERA in 150.2 innings of work.

Analysis: A pitcher’s pitcher. And there’s really no other way to describe it. Dunshee owns 50-grade pitches across the board: a fastball that sinks a bit, a fading changeup with a little bit of arm deception, a late-breaking curveball that doesn’t show a tremendous amount of depth, and a slider that’s slightly harder than his curveball. But Dunshee relies on guile and the ability to throw any pitch, anywhere, in any count. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound right-hander creates some additional deception with a funky arm action and impressive tunneling with all four pitches. Don’t sleep on Dunshee – there’s a little bit of Kyle Hendricks here.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.