Josh Mandel

Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel at the City Club in Cleveland in 2012 during his failed U.S. Senate bid. Brent Larkin predicts payback is coming for Mandel's recent snubs of Gov. John Kasich during Kasich's Republican presidential bid.

(Tony Dejak, Associated Press, File, 2012)

CLEVELAND -- In an election year when we've all been wrong, no one's been more wrong than State Treasurer Josh Mandel.

Not only did Mandel defiantly climb aboard a lame and losing horse in the Republican race for president; his support for the now-departed Sen. Marco Rubio also included several premeditated attempts to humiliate the candidacy of Gov. John Kasich.

Mandel's payback is pending. But it's certain to happen by 2018. And when Team Kasich comes after him, history tells us it will be with a vengeance.

Despite the governor's bromides about civility and Christian values, many of his closest allies add up to what is almost universally considered the meanest, most vindictive crowd to control the Statehouse in decades.

These people cherish the millions they're earning as lobbyists and consultants. For them, disloyalty is a crime punishable by the political equivalent of waterboarding.

Mandel surely knows this. He's seen and heard them bad-mouth and attempt to punish State Auditor David Yost and Secretary of State Jon Husted for no justifiable reason.

Nevertheless, Mandel has made a conscious decision that pandering to the far right wing of his party is a wise political strategy that will pay long-term dividends -- even if it means publicly opposing some of Kasich's highest-profile policy decisions.

Every move Mandel has made against Kasich has been done with malice aforethought.

Scrape away all the contrived policy positions and you will find a singular obsession that explains every Mandel move: winning election to the U.S. Senate. Everything he does is a means to that end.

Mandel has been running for Sen. Sherrod Brown's Senate seat for five years, interrupted only by a brief and successful re-election campaign for treasurer in 2014.

The Beachwood resident and former Lyndhurst city councilman lost to Brown by a sizable margin in 2012, but knows he'll have a far better chance in 2018 -- especially if there's a Democrat in the White House.

That obsession explains why Mandel aggressively opposed two of the signature proposals in Kasich's 2013 state budget proposal: accepting federal dollars to expand Ohio's Medicaid program and an increased tax on fracking.

Parroting the Tea Party's positions endeared Mandel to his party's conservative base, but infuriated the governor's loyalists, with a spokesman suggesting Mandel was little more than a shill for Big Oil.

Mandel's positions prevailed. Lawmakers rejected both of Kasich's requests (on big stuff, they almost always do), so the governor used the State Controlling Board to bypass the legislature and enact his Medicaid plan.

None of the four Republicans who occupy the other statewide offices is especially fond of Kasich. But tangling with the governor in such a public way moved Mandel to the top of Team Kasich's enemies list.

Mandel seems to be a member of a rare breed -- a politician who cares nothing about what his colleagues think of him. And he clearly has resigned himself to never being a media darling.

A year ago, when Republican officeholders throughout Ohio were falling into line behind Kasich's presidential candidacy, Mandel endorsed Rubio. The snub moved Ohio Republican Party Chairman Matt Borges to label Mandel a "bit player" in Ohio politics.

As it turned out, Mandel's campaign to undermine Kasich was just getting started. On Feb. 4, just four days before the New Hampshire primary, Mandel predicted Kasich's presidential campaign wouldn't last long.

"By the time we get to the convention in Cleveland, he won't be in the race anymore," Mandel said in an interview with a New York radio station. He was wrong about the timing: Kasich lasted longer in the race than all but one of his 16 competitors.

But Mandel saved his best -- and cheapest -- shot for last.

On March 11, just hours after Rubio's campaign urged its supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio's presidential primary election, Mandel cast his absentee ballot.

For Rubio.

Kasich won big in Ohio. In two years, Team Kasich's plan will be to do what's possible to make sure Mandel loses just as big.

Unlike 2012, a Senate race defeat in 2018 would leave Mandel out of elected office for the first time in more than 14 years.

If Dennis Kucinich taught me anything, it's that slapping a "washed-up" label on a young politician with burning ambition is a grave risk. But a second loss to Brown would, at the very least, force Mandel to lower his expectations or lengthen his timetable for stardom.

Should Team Kasich decide to field a candidate against Mandel in the 2018 Senate primary, the two Republicans most mentioned are Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor and Columbus-area congressman and longtime Kasich friend Pat Tiberi.

Taylor could compete against Mandel, provided she's willing to put the rest of her life on hold for two years. Tiberi would be a huge underdog.

Mandel's worst nightmare would be Sherrod Brown's elevation to the vice presidency, which would allow Kasich to fill the Senate vacancy. The governor could appoint himself, Taylor, Tiberi or any Ohioan 30 or older.

Kasich might want to run for president again in 2020, so my guess is he would not appoint himself to an open Senate seat.

Neither would he appoint Mandel.

And by denying Mandel an appointment, Kasich would put him in the untenable position of challenging and defeating a sitting Republican senator in the party's 2018 primary.

How all this will play out is far from certain.

But that Kasich and his pals will maneuver to wreck Mandel's Senate obsession is a sure thing.

Brent Larkin was The Plain Dealer's editorial director from 1991 until his retirement in 2009.

To reach Brent Larkin: blarkin@cleveland.com