opinion

Arizona's disappearing Democratic Party

General election turnout numbers by party recently became available from the Secretary of State's Office. They document, once again, what a steep hill Democrats face in trying to be even competitive in elections for statewide office in an off-presidential year.

The good news for Democrats is that they slightly narrowed their turnout disadvantage with Republicans from 2010. And the independent share of the turnout went up.

The bad news is that neither made a bit of difference.

Republicans cast 43 percent of the votes in the 2014 general election. There's really no need to go beyond that in analyzing the general election results.

With the rise in independent registration, those who remain registered with a party are more likely to be loyal to their political brand. If Republicans are 43 percent of the electorate, a Republican candidate doesn't have to do much else right to win.

Democrats cast 31 percent of the votes in the 2014 general election. Independents, although 36 percent of the registration, were only 26 percent of actual voters.

Although independent registration soared from 2010 to 2014, that didn't translate into much of a change in turnout. The independent share did go up by 3 percentage points. But the dominant Republican share of the electorate only declined by a percentage point.

How little the political landscape changed can be seen in the fate of the two Democratic candidates for governor. Terry Goddard got 42 percent of the vote in 2010. Fred DuVal got 42 percent in 2014.

Now, while Democrats grumble about the campaigns they ran, neither Goddard nor DuVal are chopped liver. And neither Jan Brewer nor Doug Ducey were Ronald Reagan on the campaign trail.

For some time, the prevailing political narrative in these parts has been that Republicans were soiling their brand and becoming increasingly out-of-touch. A rising tide of independent and Latino voters would spell their doom.

The real political story in Arizona, however, has been the disappearing Democratic Party. It has lost its preeminence in rural Arizona and become uncompetitive in races for state offices.

This can't be blamed on gerrymandered districts or dark money. It's registration and turnout. Until those change, outcomes won't.

Reach Robb at robert.robb@arizonarepublic.com.