UPDATED AND EDITED: The Navy has shot down a dying spy satellite. Now the question is: what happens to the debris? The folks over at Analytical Graphics and Applied

Defense Solutions have put together a statistical simulation of one likely scenario.

Analytical Graphics (AGI) works up these sorts of sims all the time, for scientific- and defense-oriented space programs. The trajectory for John Hopkins' exploration of Pluto was plotted with AGI's help, for example. "Every branch of the military" uses their software, AGI's Timothy Carrico says. The Air Force's 22nd Space Operations Squadron uses their products to help crunch collision-avoidance data for more than 80 satellites, according to Peter J. Brown at Via Satellite magazine.

And Applied Defense Solutions used AGI software to create a more accurate orbit determination system for the Naval Satellite Operations Center.

What makes the sims special is the injection of real-world physics. Unlike the zippy little animations you'll see on the evening news, every piece of debris in this satellite shoot-down model has been given its own mass, area, speed, velocity and drag.

Not every element of this particular model is hyper-realistic, however. AGI put together a sim based on the Pentagon's assertion that 50 percent of the debris would burn up in the atmosphere during the first two passes. The model was set up also for the north Pacific, generally – not for the specific no-fly zone that the Navy has now carved out. [UPDATE: A new video, featured above, now has the missile launching from the proper place.] The mass and area of the debris is uniformly distributed (although changes in velocity and direction are more natural).

Still, this is about as realistic a simulation you're going to see. For now.

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