Will USC’s Swoon Continue?

No. That might be a surprising answer given the state of the program. But USC isn’t going to produce anything close to the 55th-best recruiting class in 2021. There are a few reasons for this. First, the Trojans are off to a good start and will sign a much larger class. They own a commitment from five-star quarterback Jake Garcia, who committed shortly after Bryce Young left the 2020 class, and a pair of Top247 defenders (Ma’a Gaoteote, Jay Toia).

"I expect USC to bounce back with their 2021 class and we’re already seeing that," said 247Sports' Greg Biggins. "The early buzz has been good thus far as the Trojans staff already looks more aggressive in how they’re recruiting locally and nationally and after only having about 16 spots total in the ’20 class, they should be able to sign closer to a full class of 25 this year as well.”

On one end of the spectrum, there’s a real chance USC is good this fall. The Trojans return 19 starters off an eight-win team and the Pac-12 South is open heading into 2020. When USC plays well it recruits well, even under Helton. The Trojans signed back-to-back No. 4 overall classes in 2017 and 2018 when they won a combined 21 games. In this scenario, Helton wins enough to lock up a contact extension and eliminate any conversation about him being a lame duck, which has nuked USC’s previous two classes.

On the other end of things, a poor season in Los Angeles will result in Helton’s firing. There will be no avoiding it by the administration for a third straight year. That coaching change, no matter who takes over, brings the promise of something new. That will get plenty of recruits to stay home, especially if USC lands a big fish. This scenario likely won’t result in a top 10 class. But it’ll still be light years better than what the Trojans inked this cycle.

“USC has to start the season in Dallas against Alabama, a place they haven’t played well the last two times they were there,” said USCFootball.com Senior Analyst Gerard Martinez. “At the very least, USC has to look competitive in that game. If they get blown out, that dark cloud is coming back and might be bringing some thunder with it as well.”