Cheering Obama in Richmond, Virginia, last Thursday.

Cheering Obama in Richmond, Virginia, last Thursday.

Yesterday we looked at the results of President Barack Obama's crazy good polling day , and compared his current numbers to those of his post-first debate nadir. Today, I want to compare his gains for the last week alone—essentially whatever bump he got from his last debate. So here goes. As always, these are the TPM poll composites , with all pollsters included, even the crappy GOP ones like Rasmussen and Gravis.

Florida flipped back Red today after it was briefly Blue yesterday because of wingnut outfits Gravis and We Ask America. But regardless, the credible pollsters see it as a one-point game one way or another. So whether it's a 0.5-point Obama or Romney edge, fact is Florida is being decided by GOTV.

Florida and Nevada have seen very little change since a week ago, proving to be the most stubbornly stable of the lot. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio have edged up half a point or so, which may not seem like much, but it's in our direction and at the right time. Romney and his allies are spending gazillions trying to drag Ohio and Wisconsin back into contention, but the numbers are going the opposite way.

As I noted yesterday, Romney's own support continues to fall. He is now above 47 percent in just two states—Florida and North Carolina. Being stuck in the 44s to 46s won't get him anywhere near the White House—and it's all thanks to his enduring personal unpopularity. Being a dick is a limiting factor in presidential politics.

Finally, Republican bluster about "expanding the map" looks increasingly hollow as Romney spent the entire day yesterday in Florida (the second time in four days), and is spending the entire day today in Virginia. If he doesn't even have those two states locked down, where exactly is he supposedly expanding the map?

In fact, looking at the campaign schedule in the days ahead, current plans for Romney are:



11/2: Etna and West Chester, OH

11/3: Newington, NH; Colorado Springs and Englewood, CO

11/4: n/a

11/5: Manchester, NH (with Kid Rock!)

I'll write another post about Romney's weird New Hampshire obsession, but aside from that, unless they shake things up or throw a PA-MI-MN swing on the fourth, the notion that this race is being decided anywhere outside the above nine battlegrounds is ludicrous.

Obama isn't just winning, the trendlines are moving in his direction. Rather than tighten the final week, the opposite is happening.