Doug Holyday is the great Tory hope. Since 1999, no Progressive Conservative has won a provincial seat in Toronto.

Now, Toronto’s high-profile deputy mayor has been cast as the tip of the Tory spear in a high-stakes Etobicoke byelection. If he can score a breakthrough in Toronto on Aug. 1, Holyday will be hailed as the party warrior who won back Etobicoke and sparked a city-wide comeback — setting the stage for a province-wide triumph for his fellow Tories in the next general election.

First they take Etobicoke, then they take Toronto, next they’ll take Queen’s Park?

Just watch them. Ford Nation is on the march again.

Mayor Rob Ford himself marched into Etobicoke’s Royal Canadian Legion hall the other night. Walking past centre stage — in mid-debate, in front of the candidates and the cameras — the mayor telegraphed his point.

Ford looms large in any Tory recovery strategy — larger even than party leader Tim Hudak (whose name was conspicuously absent from the candidate’s campaign literature). The Holyday-Ford tag team is a game-changer in this race, the most closely-watched of five byelections underway across the province.

Until a few days ago, the Liberals seemed destined to prevail once again in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Their candidate, Peter Milczyn, enjoys high name recognition as the local city councillor in a riding the Liberals won with more than 50 per cent of the vote in the 2011 election. When Holyday stepped in — bigfooting the previously nominated Tory candidate who withdrew on cue — a Liberal romp became a tight race.

Yet the Tory and Liberal rivals are remarkably similar: Like Holyday, Milczyn preaches budgetary restraint and serves on Ford’s executive. (The NDP candidate, P.C. Choo, is running a distant third.)

That means the byelection will be decided more by party loyalties, personal brands and election-day machines.

Holyday doesn’t have a campaign apparatus to speak of — he cruised to victory without any spending in the last election. And while he plays the populist card, his Liberal rival is the more technocratic candidate, talking up the government’s transit strategy but without evident traction. Now, Milczyn’s campaign is counting on the kind of election-day drive that got out the Liberal vote in 2011.

If Holyday takes the seat, he won’t be the only one Hudak will have to thank. Watch for Ford Nation to lay claim to the Tory comeback on Aug. 1.

‘That’s hubris’

At the all-candidates’ debate, I had the unexpected pleasure of hearing Holyday holler at me from the stage about a previous column as I sat listening from the audience. It was not what I came to cover, but it was quite a show.

Green Party candidate Angela Salewsky wanted to know why the deputy mayor wasn’t quitting his day job at city hall, given that he’d previously hounded others who sought higher office. Holyday turned on her:

“You have not read the (2004) motion — and obviously the gentleman that wrote the story didn’t really read it thoroughly,” Holyday shot back, before turning to glare at me in the audience.

“The truthful part of the motion . . . was that . . . you had to agree to serve half your term. And there’s absolutely nothing hypocritical about what I’ve done at all.”

While I’m unaccustomed to being used as a (silent) foil in a public harangue, I’m paid to listen when politicians speak. As a columnist, I could just use this space to get the last word in, but better to use Holyday’s own words — from 2004.

The motion called for politicians to serve out their full term. If they sought higher office before the midpoint, they’d face “automatic dismissal.” While Holyday argues that sanction wouldn’t apply to him — he has served 32 months, with a mere 16 months left — let’s look at Holyday’s original motion.

His words, not mine:

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“The public fully expects that winning candidates will honour their selection with conscientious dedication for the full period of the mandate.”

“The public expects that they, once elected, honour that trust and complete their term.”

If, in lieu of a byelection, council appoints someone to serve out the rest of councillor’s term, democracy “is denied and perversion of the system ensues.”

The last bit stands out, because Holyday now wants someone like-minded to be appointed to replace him if he becomes an MPP and resigns, belatedly, from city council (he’s now on leave). Never mind a “perversion” of democracy, or mere hypocrisy. That’s hubris.

As Holyday put it in 2004, politicians make a covenant with voters to serve out their full term. Half-measures, like half-mandates, don’t cut it.

Yes, many incumbents seek higher office — Milczyn among them (though the Liberal candidate never hectored others about it, and hence isn’t guilty of the same double standard as Holyday.)

What’s truly bizarre is not just that Holyday is going back on his word but that he’s rewriting his words. Don’t take my word for it, or Holyday’s.

Look it up for yourself online. (If you’re reading the print edition, I invite you to look up this column at thestar.com so that you can click on the embedded links and read Holyday’s own words — see page 41 of the city council agenda).

That way, we’ll both be giving Holyday the last word.

Martin Regg Cohn’s provincial affairs column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. mcohn@thestar.ca , Twitter: @reggcohn.