Fiscal Analysis of Flashback Formats: Odyssey and Time Spiral Blocks

The current week’s flashback format is Odyssey block. Odyssey block drafts are online now. Next week’s flashback format will be Time Spiral block. I’ll try to cover both formats this week. Odyssey was the Madness and graveyard block, so remember that when drafting. Time Spiral block has 18 bazillion mechanics. The average retail price of the cards in both blocks is fairly low and Odyssey block in not even Modern legal, so the value of most of the cards is not great. Time Spiral is better because of the big money cards – Odyssey is rough. You need to either win the draft or open expensive cards to break even. Here’s the list of all the cards you need to open:

Time Spiral Block Cards Rarity Set Price Tarmogoyf R FUT $ 96.19 Grove of the Burnwillows R FUT $ 26.73 Daybreak Coronet R FUT $ 21.44 Horizon Canopy R FUT $ 20.94 Damnation R PLC $ 13.59 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth R PLC $ 12.60 The Rack R TSB $ 11.75 Lord of Atlantis R TSB $ 10.32 Magus of the Moon R FUT $ 7.79 Gemstone Mine R TSB $ 7.14 Pact of Negation R FUT $ 5.34 Serrated Arrows R TSB $ 5.06 Venser, Shaper Savant R FUT $ 4.83 Aven Mindcensor U FUT $ 4.81 River of Tears R FUT $ 4.75 Coalition Relic R FUT $ 4.42 Vesuva R TSP $ 4.09

Odyssey Block Cards Rarity Set Price Entomb R OD $ 25.88 Ichorid R TOR $ 21.27 Burning Wish R JUD $ 13.37 Karmic Justice R OD $ 7.79 Deserted Temple R OD $ 6.90 Patron Wizard R OD $ 6.79 Squirrel Mob R OD $ 6.76 Petrified Field R OD $ 4.84 Cabal Coffers U TOR $ 4.77 Grim Lavamancer R TOR $ 4.63 Genesis R JUD $ 4.28 Crystal Quarry R OD $ 4.07

Opinion Section: Promos, FtVs and High-Priced Cards

Right now, a number of staple cards are really expensive (see The Good Stuff, below, for a list.) Magic is an expensive hobby, especially if you play Legacy, Classic or Modern. Even Standard is pricey. Is this a problem?

It is not a problem just because cards are expensive. It is a collectable card game, after all, even online. That means people collect the cards, which means they value the cards. Valuing the cards means paying for them. The fact that cards have value supports drafters (who can sell the cards they draft to support their habit.) It is also good for the dealers – although most dealers make a profit by buying at wholesale and selling at retail, and paying expenses, etc., out of the difference between retail and wholesale. Dealers don’t care all that much about overall price, so long as their inventory does not crash in value suddenly. Late last century, Wizards released the set Chronicles, which drastically increased the number of certain chase cards in circulation (“increased” meaning the number printed increased by an order of magnitude.) Chronicles was harmful enough that a lot of collectors and dealers quit. Wizards learned their lesson, and vowed never to repeat the Chronicles debacle.

From Wizards perspective, the value of cards on the secondary market has no direct effect on their business. Wizards sells packs and – online at least – events. Wizards does not sell singles, nor does it get “a cut” from dealers or collectors. Collectability is important only to the extent it drives sales. However, since it does drive sales, it is important. Dealers are important because they make it possible for players to get the cards they need for constructed formats, and to support drafters. Collectors are also a very significant source of sales.

Singles prices are important for another reason – they can affect the playability of formats. SCG runs Opens nearly every weekend. They run Standard on Saturday, and Legacy on Sunday. The Standard events are always much better attended – in part because Legacy is a very expensive format. Online, you are very likely to face a mono-red deck in many formats. This is not because the red decks are Tier One – it is because they are inexpensive. Rw Devotion is simply cheaper than Esper Control, which generally runs a playset of Sphinx’s Revelations and a fistful of planeswalkers.

In other words, the only thing that Wizards needs to worry about is the price of cards that affect tournament attendance and, to a lesser extent, metagame. This latter is more important online, since Wizards wants MTGO to be a reasonable testbed and stepping stone to larger events. That does not work if the Legacy metagame online has no storm decks, because online LEDs are unaffordable to practically everyone.

Another digression – what makes cards expensive. It is a combination of two factors: availability and playability. Some extremely rare cards have zero playability in sanctioned Magic events, so while they have some collector value, they are not worth all that much. (For example, Zodiac Pig is extremely scarce in paper and online, but no one plays it, so it is cheap. On the flip side, Island may well be the most heavily played tournament card, but since Islands are available in vast quantity everywhere they have no real value. (Certain special Islands, like the Unhinged ones, have value because they are scarce.)

A few years ago, Invasion block cards were very expensive. I think I paid almost $100 apiece for my Pernicious Deed s and Vindicate s. But back then, they were more playable (played in Classic, Legacy and Extended), and were extremely scarce. Invasion block was the old set when MTGO was first released, so it was not drafted much and the cards did not enter the carpool in any volumes. Since then, Wizards has offered periodic Invasion drafts leading to an increase in availability, and the cards have seen less play, so the price has dropped to a quarter of its old value. Less playable Invasion rares, like Rakavolver , have dropped from $10 to $0.05.

Price is a function of playability and supply. Cards like Thoughtseize and Goyf will be playable in any format in which they are legal, so let’s talk about changing the supply. If the price is a problem for constructed, that’s the solution.

When Wizards wants to increase the number of copies of a card in the card pool, they have a number of options:

1. They can reprint the card in the core set or an expansion.

2. They can offer flashback drafts for a set it was printed in.

3. They can make it a MOCS or player rewards promo.

4. They can include it in a From the Vaults or Duel Deck set.

5. They can put it an online-only set, like Vintage Masters.

Let’s look at each of these in turn.

Reprinting a card in a current set, even at rare, is a great method of cutting the cost. Look at Thoughtseize . It was a very expensive card. It was reprinted in Theros, the base set for a block. This puts the maximum number into play, and reduces the price the most. Putting a card in the third set, or in the summer Core set, puts fewer into play, and does not reduce the price as much. Mutavault is a good example. It was reprinted in the core set, and is still over $20.

Reprinting cards in new sets means they are printed in both paper and online. In paper, the Reserve List applies. Cards on the Reserve List will never be reprinted. With hindsight or a time machine, Wizards would never have made Chronicles the way they did, and finessed the reprint issue in some other way. However, Chronicles happened, Wizards debated the Reserve list at great length, and made a final decision. You can argue and theorize all you want, but Wizards – and Hasbro – considers the question closed. Of our ten cards, LED, Cradle and Show and Tell are on the Reserve List, and cannot be reprinted in paper. Debate it all you want – the bosses at Hasbro have laid down the law. It’s not changing.

Return to Return to Mirrodin or Antiquities II, but not before. Mox Opal could reappear, but makes no sense unless it is printed in an artifact-heavy block. Look for it inor, but not before.

The remaining four cards are extremely powerful, and could warp any Standard environment they were in. Even Misdirection would have a significant effect. Imagine casting Hero’s Demise targeting and opponent’s Elspeth. The opponent could tap out for a big Sphinx’s Revelation, and that Demise could end up targeting a token. Too good, at least for now. People have debated whether Wizards could craft a Standard format with Force or Misdirection in the mix. It is plausible, but that would also introduce the cards into the Modern format. I have heard plenty of debates on whether or not that would be a good thing. If I had to give odds, I’d offer 50/50 odds that Mox Opal will appear in a future artifact block, and 60/40 against Misdirection being in a Core Set – but not while blue decks are close to Tier 1. The other cards will probably not be reprinted in current sets. They are just too powerful. Wizards does not want another Standard format bent around Goyf or Liliana.

And my flight is being announced – as cancelled. Time to go find an agent. I’ll have to continue this next week. I’ll upload the article and, hopefully, find a way home.

Cutting Edge Tech:

Standard: We had another Standard GP last weekend. Coverage is th GP Top 8, and got his 7th win. Truly impressive – he has now passed Kai so far as GPs are concerned. Note the playset of Staff of the Death Magus in the sideboard. : We had another Standard GP last weekend. Coverage is here . Yuuya Watanabe played in his 20GP Top 8, and got his 7win. Truly impressive – he has now passed Kai so far as GPs are concerned. Note the playset of Staff of the Death Magus in the sideboard.

Mono-Black Devotion

Yuuya Watanabe, Winner, Grand Prix Beijing 2014

4 Mutavault

1 Temple of Silence

1 Temple of Deceit

19 Swamp

4 Pack Rat

4 Lifebane Zombie

4 Desecration Demon

4 Gray Merchant of Asphodel

4 Underworld Connections

4 Hero's Downfall

4 Devour Flesh

4 Thoughtseize

1 Duress

1 Bile Blight

1 Ultimate Price

3 Duress

3 Doom Blade

2 Read the Bones

1 Bile Blight

2 Erebos, God of the Dead

4 Staff of the Death Magus

Pauper: Last weekend’s Pauper Premier event had an interesting mix of decks, including Slivers, red burn and a goblins deck. The other five decks were – surprise – blue. Here’s the winner.

Blue Ninjas

Perks, Winner, Pauper Premier #6922982 on 03/29/2014

16 Island

4 Cloud of FAeries

2 Cloudfin Raptor

4 Delver of Secrets

2 Frostburn Weird

4 Ninja of the Deep Hours

4 Spellstutter Sprite

4 Spire Golem

1 Bonesplitter

4 Counterspell

2 Deprive

2 Piracy Charm

3 Ponder

4 Preordain

4 Snap

4 Annul

2 Dispel

1 Frostburn Weird

4 Hydroblast

2 Serrated Arrows

2 Stormbound Geist

Theros Block Constructed: The next tournament with R&D playing along (on April 18th) will be Theros Block Constructed. I didn’t see a report on a THS Block Premier event, but I did find some dailies. Here’s a deck that finished top of the heap after 4 rounds.

GWB Commune with Reaper

Smiley_gladhands, 4-0, THS Block Constructed Daily #6923070 on 04/01/2014

9 Forest

1 Plains

5 Swamp

4 Temple of Plenty

4 Temple of Silence

3 Abhorrent Overlord

4 Ashen Rider

4 Courser of Kruphix

2 Reaper of the Wilds

4 Satyr Wayfinder

4 Sylvan Caryatid

4 Commune with the Gods

2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

2 Gild

2 Hero's Downfall

2 Rescue from the Underworld

4 Whip of Erebos

4 Dark Betrayal

1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

1 Erebos, God of the Dead

1 Gild

2 Hero's Downfall

1 Reaper of the Wilds

3 Thoughtseize

2 Unravel the Aether

Legacy: SCG ran a Legacy Open last weekend. The Top 8 was a mix of Delver and Miracles – not the collection of oddball from the week before. The Top 16 are : SCG ran a Legacy Open last weekend. The Top 8 was a mix of Delver and Miracles – not the collection of oddball from the week before. The Top 16 are here

UWR Delver

Michael Majors, Winner, SCG Legacy Open Charlotte

2 True-Name Nemesis

4 Delver of Secrets

3 Gitaxian Probe

1 Batterskull

4 Stoneforge Mystic

3 Spell Pierce

3 Misty Rainforest

1 Arid Mesa

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Ponder

1 Umezawa's Jitte

4 Daze

4 Brainstorm

4 Wasteland

4 Force of Will

4 Tundra

3 Swords to Plowshares

3 Volcanic Island

4 Lightning Bolt

1 Wear//Tear

2 Rest in Peace

2 Flusterstorm

1 Sword of Feast and Famine

2 Grim Lavamancer

4 Meddling Mage

2 Red Elemental Blast

1 Swords to Plowshares

Vintage: Classic came really close to firing last weekend, but was one player. So, here’s the winning Vintage deck from a recent North Saint Paul event, courtesy of Morphling.de. And remember the Classic Quarter Season Qualifier registration ends this Friday at midnight.

Stax

Scott Fielder, Winner, North Saint Paul event March 15, 2014

1 Black Lotus

4 Chalice of the Void

3 Crucible of Worlds

2 Karn, Silver Golem

4 Lodestone Golem

1 Mana Crypt

1 Mox Emerald

1 Mox Jet

1 Mox Pearl

1 Mox Ruby

1 Mox Sapphire

4 Smokestack

1 Sol Ring

4 Sphere of Resistance

2 Staff of Nin

3 Steel Hellkite

4 Tangle Wire

2 Thorn of Amethyst

1 Trinisphere

1 Phyrexian Metamorph

4 Ancient Tomb

2 City of Traitors

2 Mishra's Factory

4 Mishra's Workshop

1 Strip Mine

1 Tolarian Academy

4 Wasteland

1 Duplicant

4 Grafdigger's Cage

2 Phyrexian Revoker

1 Razormane Masticore

4 Relic of Progenitus

1 Spine of Ish Sah

2 Wurmcoil Engine

Card Prices:

MTGOTraders Bots, so check out mtgotradersbot, mtgotradersbot2, mtgotradersbot3, mtgotradersbot4, mtgotradersbot5, CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or you can order them directly from Notes: All my prices come from MTGOTraders.com . For cards that are available in multiple sets, I am quoting the lower price. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Thoughtseize is generally the Theros price. In certain other cases (e.g Brainstorm) I will note which version I track. All these cards are generally available from theso check out mtgotradersbot, mtgotradersbot2, mtgotradersbot3, mtgotradersbot4, mtgotradersbot5, CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or you can order them directly from the website . Now, on to prices.

The cost of entire sets is relevant if you redeem, but it is also a decent indicator of overall trends. Prices were pretty much unchanged this week..

Complete Set Price Last Week Change % Change Born of the Gods $93.84 $98.57 ($4.73) -5% Dragon's Maze $73.44 $74.40 ($0.96) -1% Gatecrash $106.56 $105.85 $0.71 1% M14 $148.13 $145.64 $2.49 2% Return to Ravnica $152.84 $158.20 ($5.36) -3% Theros $115.58 $111.95 $3.63 3%

I’m out of time this week. Price tables will be back next week.

The Good Stuff:

The Good Stuff starts with a list of the non-foil, non-premium cards on MTGO that cost more than $25 each – that’s $100 per playset. LED is back ahead of Force of Will again, but that’s because Force has dropped even further since being declared as a MOCS Promo. Rishadan Port and Goyf have both passed FoW, but not LED. We will see what happens next week.

Card Rarity Set Price Lion's Eye Diamond R MI $ 108.07 Rishadan Port R MM $ 105.46 Tarmogoyf M MMA $ 104.83 Force of Will R MED $ 103.99 Tarmogoyf R FUT $ 96.19 Liliana of the Veil M ISD $ 76.08 Wasteland U TE $ 75.74 Misdirection R MM $ 67.22 Gaea's Cradle R UZ $ 64.71 Show and Tell R UZ $ 64.11 Mox Opal M SOM $ 59.24 Tundra R ME4 $ 54.24 Tundra R ME2 $ 53.55 Vendilion Clique R MOR $ 48.57 Vendilion Clique M MMA $ 45.41 Jace, the Mind Sculptor M WWK $ 42.94 Bayou R ME4 $ 41.51 Volcanic Island R ME4 $ 41.41 Bayou R ME3 $ 40.70 Volcanic Island R ME3 $ 39.97 Underground Sea R ME4 $ 39.78 Underground Sea R ME2 $ 38.57 Noble Hierarch R CON $ 38.38 Griselbrand M AVR $ 37.26 City of Traitors R EX $ 35.44 Vampiric Tutor R VI $ 35.34 Cryptic Command R LRW $ 34.69 Cryptic Command R MMA $ 34.55 Polluted Delta R ONS $ 34.30 Mutavault R MOR $ 32.41 Mishra's Workshop R ME4 $ 31.86 Bitterblossom R MOR $ 31.57 Sphinx's Revelation M RTR $ 31.57 Voice of Resurgence M DGM $ 31.21 Mutavault R M14 $ 30.80 Sneak Attack R UZ $ 30.28 Tropical Island R ME3 $ 29.94 True-Name Nemesis R C13 $ 29.79 Tropical Island R ME4 $ 29.62 Fulminator Mage R SHM $ 29.33 Karn Liberated M NPH $ 28.43 Natural Order R VI $ 28.40 Geist of Saint Traft M ISD $ 28.07 Threads of Disloyalty R BOK $ 28.03 Mana Crypt R ME2 $ 27.98 Grove of the Burnwillows R FUT $ 26.73 Flusterstorm R CMD $ 26.72 Mana Drain R ME3 $ 26.11 Misty Rainforest R ZEN $ 26.04 Domri Rade M GTC $ 26.00 Chord of Calling R RAV $ 25.94 Entomb R OD $ 25.88 Ajani Vengeant M ALA $ 25.86 Batterskull M NPH $ 25.62

The big number is the retail price of a playset (4 copies) of every card available on MTGO. Assuming you bought the least expensive version available, the cost of owning a playset of every card on MTGO you can own is $27,120. That’s down about three hundred dollars from where we were last week.

Weekly Highlights:

Spent most of my week in San Diego. I managed to squeeze in a couple MTGO drafts, mainly because the time difference has me waking up an hour or two before sunrise. The beach is cool, but not at 4am. That’s a good time for a draft.

PRJ

“one million words” on MTGO.

This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.