Latest poll by Conservative peer finds Lib Dem leader narrowly trailing Labour in Sheffield while Ukip leader is two points behind Tories in target South Thanet

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

Nick Clegg is narrowly trailing Labour in his Sheffield Hallam seat and Nigel Farage is slightly behind the Conservatives in his South Thanet target, according to the latest constituency polling from Lord Ashcroft.

The data from the Conservative peer shows both party leaders are facing extremely tight battles to enter parliament on 7 May, although their parties have been quick to point out that Ashcroft does not name the candidates when the research is being conducted.

In the survey, Clegg is one point behind the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard, who is on 37%. The gap between the two has got closer since the last poll in March, which had Labour three points ahead.

Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) The gap narrows in Sheffield Hallam. Will Tory tactical voters step in to save Clegg? pic.twitter.com/ZLtD0mBUtw

However, Clegg insisted his own internal party polling shows he is “firmly ahead”.

“Just call me old-fashioned, but if you are going to try to work out how people are going to vote, ask them the question they are actually going to be asked on polling day,” he said.



Clegg’s majority is around 15,000 but Labour have been fighting hard in the seat in an attempt to “decapitate” the Lib Dems. Clegg said he had not seen Ashcroft’s latest poll, but added that private Lib Dem polling of the constituency put him “firmly ahead” and repeated that those polled had not been told the name of the candidate, which he argues distorts the result.

“The thousands of people we are speaking to every two or three days in Hallam is so much bigger in volume than anything a pollster can do,” said Clegg.

A senior party source said the polling showed that 31% of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2010 were now planning to vote for Clegg. “We can continue to squeeze the Tory vote between now and polling day. There is a substantial Conservative vote in Hallam that is coming to us and really backing Nick.”

The source said the party’s campaigners contacted 6,000 voters in Sheffield Hallam last weekend alone.

Five of the six published polls conducted in the constituency since the 2010 election have shown Labour ahead by a small margin.

Ashcroft’s poll also found the Conservatives two points ahead of Farage in South Thanet on 34%, while Ukip is on 32% and Labour is further behind on 26%.



Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) Are Labour voters in Thanet South lending their votes to the Tories to stop Farage? pic.twitter.com/DKWYICkg8v

A senior Ukip source said: “The raw data puts us two points up and he’s not named as a candidate. You name the candidate of Nigel or Nick’s national status and that adds five points. I’m quite content that we’re well ahead.



“But it does show our get-out-the-vote operation has to be slick as hell.”

Rob Ford, the academic who co-authored a book on Ukip called Revolt on the Right, also tweeted: “Farage is ahead by 2% before turnout weighting and DK [don’t know] re-allocation. So Thanet will likely be decided by get out the vote org.”

Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) Correction - Farage is ahead by 2% before turnout weighting and DK re-allocation. So Thanet will likely be decided by get out the vote org

A third Ashcroft poll showed an equally tight race in Swindon South, where solicitor general Robert Buckland is trying to hold on to the seat for the Conservatives. The Tories are unchanged on 37% in the constituency, while Labour has dropped back one point to 36%, since a previous survey in March.

Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) Still too close to call in South Swindon: pic.twitter.com/jktc3riLsU

Both Farage and Clegg are still favourites with the bookmaker Coral to win their target seats, despite the polls showing them trailing.

Separately, a ComRes/ITV poll of the 50 most marginal Conservative-held seats shows Cameron’s party is trailing Labour by three points collectively across the constituencies.

The study showed Labour currently stands at 40% in these key battleground seats, with the Conservatives on 37%. ComRes suggested that if those results were replicated on 7 May with a uniform swing across all these constituencies, it would see Labour win 40 of the 50 seats.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, said: “There are crumbs of comfort for both main parties. For the Conservatives there is enough queasiness about Labour doing a deal with the SNP to shift potential votes, and for Labour there is the comfort of overtaking their main rivals across these key marginals.

“But Ukip’s presence shows the havoc the party is likely to wreak next week on David Cameron’s chances of remaining in office, and Labour should be asking some serious questions about why they are benefiting so little from the collapse of the Liberal Democrats.”