Europe could face another refugee crisis if Lebanon’s struggling economy does not improve, the country’s president has warned.

More than 1.5 million Syrians are currently seeking refuge in Lebanon, making it home to the highest concentration of refugees per capita anywhere in the world.

Lebanese president Michel Aoun said on Tuesday that “waves” of refugees could soon be heading to Europe.

“Europe is directly interested in solving the situation, as Syrian refugees staying in Lebanon are not satisfied with the economic situation in the country, and new migrant waves to Europe will start soon,” Mr Aoun said on Tuesday during a trip to Moscow to discuss the crisis, according to Russian news agency TASS.

Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Show all 17 1 /17 Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Nagan, 12, is one of 180,000 Syrian refugee children Unicef has identified as OOSC (Out Of School Children) who have been forced into work in Lebanon Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year The majestic snow capped mountains overlooking al-Wafa refugee camp in Arsal, Lebanon. It is home to 700 refugees who fled their homes at the outbreak of civil war in 2012 Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Fuda al-Bareesh, 92, spends her days in solitude at Alsalam 2 camp in Arsal, Lebanon. She made the journey from Syria across the mountains alone on a donkey Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Kareemah, 21, mother of two from Chebaa, southern Lebanon. She is unsure how her family will be able to afford basics like food and fuel if aid is cut off Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Exercising patience in the cold, men and women wait to collect winter fuel at Alsalam camp, Arsal. Gifted by Muslim Aid UK donors, each family receives 20 litres – enough for two days of continuous heat Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year The view to the snow covered mountains through the cracked pane of glass at al-Wafa camp Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year At al-Wafa refugee camp in Arsal, Abdul Al Moamen, 10, sits in tears Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Ahmed, 3, helps his eldest brother to move the empty plastic jerry cans along the line as they get refilled at a fuel distribution centre Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Qaram, 8, was orphaned when her father was killed by Isis. She is in desperate need of an operation to save her sight. Instead of going to school, she works eight-hour shifts each day on a nearby farm Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Ahmed Fawzi, Lebanon country director for Muslim Aid, comforts Abdul al-Moamen Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Bisan, 5, plays with friends in among puddles of rainwater from recent storms Norma and Miriam Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Amina Safadi is a beneficiary of the Primary Healthcare Centre in Chebaa, Lebanon. The ICRC-accredited facility welcomes the most marginalised Lebanese residents as well as Syrian refugees. Safadi says she has no idea what she would do if the service was unavailable Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year The queue for fuel at a fuel distribution centre in Arsal Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Hadi, 6, waits with aid workers whilst his mother collects heating fuel for the family’s stove Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Fuel bowser delivers aid to the 700 residents at al-Wafa camp Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year The child workers of Lebanon. Unicef says 180,000 children are working on farms and in factories Paddy Dowling Return to Lebanon: Syrian refugee crisis in its eighth year Ahmed Slabi and his five children. “What are my choices now for me and my family? It's bad here or worse in Syria.” He feels dependent on international aid, a social pariah and beggar in a country that is not his own Paddy Dowling

The presence of Syrian refugees has deeply divided Lebanon over the past eight years, mirroring the country’s political divisions over the Syrian civil war.

Many fear the long-term settlement of such a large number of Syrians would upset the delicate sectarian balance in the country, where power is shared among its many religious sects.

But the economic impact of the refugee crisis has become a more pressing issue as the country’s financial outlook has deteriorated.

In the past few years, economic issues that pre-date the Syrian crisis have become more pronounced – among them youth unemployment, inflation and one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world. In January, Moody’s ratings agency downgraded its credit rating for Lebanon, putting it on par with Gabon, Zambia, Iraq and Ukraine.

Entrenched political stagnation has impeded progress on these issues, but some say politicians have used Syrian refugees as a scapegoat for the country’s ills.

Mr Aoun’s comments come at a time when the Lebanese government is increasing pressure on Syrian refugees to return home, despite the United Nations declaring Syria is not yet safe.

In recent years, it has made it almost impossible for Syrians to work legally and increased fees for renewing their residency papers. More than half of Syrian refugees in Lebanon live in abject poverty, with families surviving on less than $3 a day.

Some 170,000 Syrian refugees have gone back from Lebanon since December 2017, according to Lebanese authorities. But activists have said that hundreds are being arrested by the government upon their return, disappearing into its deadly prison system.

A much smaller number have been heading the other way, to Europe. The United Nations refugee agency has resettled 37,079 Syrian refugees in European countries since 2011. And over the past year, small groups have attempted to reach Europe illegally by boat. In September 2018, a vessel carrying 40 Syrian refugees sank of the coast of Lebanon as it headed towards Cyprus. A five-year-old Palestinian refugee, Khaled Nijmeh, drowned.

But there has so far been no indication that Syrians would, or could, leave en masse for Europe.

“Despite the profound poverty facing Syrian refugees, the reality is that the overwhelming majority are likely to remain in Lebanon and face even more hardship for the foreseeable future,” Matias Meier, International Rescue Committee’s Lebanon country director, told The Independent.

“Syrian refugees in Lebanon know only too well that it is now far more difficult and indeed far riskier to attempt to cross to Europe, and according to the UN only around five per cent believe they will return to Syria within the next year,” he added.

Syrian refugees Jose Ahmad al-Jessi, a mother of eight in her 50s, and her daughter Raghad stand in the doorway of a shop warehouse where they fled to when their tent flooded on Tuesday (Richard Hall / The Independent)

The UN estimates that some 250,000 Syrians could return home from across the region this year. Western countries, meanwhile, have held back support for the move before a broader diplomatic solution to the conflict. Mr Aoun’s comments could be aimed at pressuring European countries to reconsider that position.

Speaking at the European parliament in September last year, he said the international community “did not bear its responsibilities to support Lebanon in mitigating the impact of this displacement, based on the principle of sharing burdens and responsibilities among states”.

“Lebanon seeks to secure a dignified and safe return of the displaced to their homes and rejects any stalling in this regard,” he said, adding that Lebanon “refuses to link [returns] to a long-standing political solution”.

Dr Carmen Geha, assistant professor of public administration at the American University of Beirut, said the president was “reminding the world that Lebanon is carrying a large burden, which it is of course. It’s a strategy for putting Lebanon back on the map.”

“The whole issue is extremely politicised, the different parties are using it for different ends. There is the question of whether we should normalise the relationship with [Syrian president] Bashar al-Assad, who should be involved with reconstruction. Meanwhile, these people are stuck amidst this tug of war,” she added.

Despite the pressure to return, human rights groups continue to urge caution.

“The conditions are certainly not conducive for return,” Leen Hashem, Syria campaigner for Amnesty International, told The Independent.