Laurie Roberts

opinion columnist

A new poll of likely voters shows Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio trailing Democrat Paul Penzone by 10 points.

And that’s before Tuesday’s announcement that Arpaio will face criminal contempt charges.

The live poll of 348 Maricopa County voters – people who voted in three of the last four general elections -- found Penzone favored by 50.86 percent and Arpaio by 40.52 percent.

Given the 5.2 percent margin of error, that could leave them in a nail biter..

The poll, conducted Oct. 2-5 by Sherpa Public Affairs, shows some big red flags for Arpaio.

Results indicate he's losing among men (38%-55%), independents (38%-53%) and voters age 50-64 (45%-51%). The only age group he carried was the over-65 crowd (50%-41%) Women, meanwhile, appear up for grabs, supporting Penzone over Arpaio, 47-42%, which is within the margin of error.

Arpaio and Penzone split the white vote while Hispanics broke three-to-one for Penzone.

This is the first independent poll -- that I’ve seen, at least -- showing Arpaio trailing Penzone.

My guess? It won’t be the last.