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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released a report (called the 20 Year Passenger Forecast) claiming that airline passengers will nearly double to 7.8 billion per year by 2036.

Now, even without pulling out our calculators, we know that that is a lot of flights and a lot of planes, what does this mean for the industry and the way we travel?

“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” – Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

That A380 And Other Super Jets Still Have A Place

In a previous article, we went over the purpose of an A380 in the aviation world, and why it has not been a big splash in some markets (particularly why you do not see many A380s operating within the USA).

However, with rising passenger numbers and more travellers flying from the developing world, we will see more aircraft in the role of high capacity long distant point to point. Some commentators say that this role would be filled by a Boeing 787 Dreamliner or some other long distant fuel-efficient variant, but if plane capacity is really the main money maker then we will see vast high capacity fleets made up like today’s example airline Emirates, who has a fleet of nearly all A380’s and Boeing 777’s. These planes would fly point to point, such as China/India to Africa (both regions have large growing populations).

Fastest growing markets:

China (921 million new passengers for a total of 1.5 billion)

US (401 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion)

India (337 million new passengers for a total of 478 million)

Indonesia (235 million new passengers for a total of 355 million)

Turkey (119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million).

Smaller Markets Served By A Boeing 797

The new midsize airline Boeing 797 is said to launch in 2025, and Boeing is predicting it to be very popular with a forecast of a market of at least 4,000 Boeing 797’s over the production lifetime.

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There is a gap in the Boeing series between the 737 single isle workhorse and the 787 long haul Dreamliner. For shorter routes, for example, Los Angeles to Denver, there is not enough capacity in current aircraft, and it is overzealous to use a long-range plane for such a short route. This is where the 797 fits in. The 797 would also be expected to land on shorter runways but still have the capability of a twin-aisle aircraft.

This plane will be the most fuel-efficient ever created and perfect for companies to remain competitive as the world moves to less wasteful and more environmental consciousness.

Airports Will Be Smarter, Not Bigger

As we saw recently at Heathrow airport, even a big airport can be overwhelmed by too many passengers. To cope with these passenger numbers, airports will have to use the latest technologies and new systems to process arrivals, rather than building bigger and more complicated terminals. This is across all disciplines, from baggage handling to boarding, traffic control and more.

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“Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge. The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency.” – Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

What Could Happen To Passenger Growth?

All of the above theories depend on whether or not the world remains as globalised and connected as it is today, with freedom of movement between countries and a robust economy to support cheap air travel. The below graph indicates that whilst passengers will still grow, they might slow by a billion passengers if countries have tighter borders like we have seen with the upcoming Brexit (United Kingdom withdrawal from the European Union).

What do you think? What will be the biggest changes in the Airline industry in the coming years?

You can see a brief summary of the report from IATA here.