In June, a collective decision was made by British voters to leave the EU, despite the uncertainty it would inevitably bring. The implication of this simple decision to leave is a need to make many more decisions about the UK’s relationship with the EU and the rest of the world.

There is huge pressure on the UK government to present a plan for Brexit, but how do you plan something so complex and nebulous?

For the UK prime minister, Theresa May, it’s a huge political challenge. For many, especially those who supported remaining in the EU, the lack of certainty about the future creates feelings of dread and worry. For those who supported leave, there is a concern the result may be undermined.

We tend to think of a plan as a detailed timeline of things to do, setting out who does what, and when. Plans help us feel a situation is under control, even if there is uncertainty in the outcome. However, in the very early stages of major change, it’s not possible to set out a detailed plan for implementation since it requires key decisions to be made on what needs planning. Essentially, in the early stages, we need a decision plan: to track the decisions to be taken, and a flexible process for maturing those decisions.

For Brexit, it’s important to establish:

Brexit Needs: the type of country the UK wants to be in its relationship with the world and the needs of key affected groups such as workers and businesses. Brexit Vision: the vision for the post-Brexit UK, describing all aspects of our relationship with the world, such as trade, immigration and justice. Implementation Plan: how we transition to the new arrangement and what specific legislative changes are needed.

Below is a decision plan for Brexit, setting out key decision areas and relationships. In some areas the desired decision may be clear, in others, options will need to be examined. By considering each area individually it allows an overall deal that is bespoke to the UK. Decisions across all areas need to mature in parallel since the knock-on impacts need to be tested.

A decision plan for Brexit: showing the interrelated decisions to be taken on Brexit as a DASH output map (descriptions at the end of this post)

The high-level timeline declared by the UK government is to trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017, starting the formal process for leaving the EU. At a minimum, the government needs to establish a position on all decision areas of the vision and have identified a pragmatic approach to transition.

If Brexit were entirely up-to Theresa May then the decision plan might be sufficient, but it clearly needs support from stakeholders. Brexit is an issue for the other EU member states, so changes need to be negotiated. A major part of the Brexit plan is identifying stakeholders to engage in making the decisions.

The diagram below is a stakeholder map for Brexit, highlighting the key players and tracking those with particular concerns.

A stakeholder plan for Brexit: contact map showing people to be consulted and influenced in Brexit decisions

The nature of the engagement changes based on each stakeholder’s position. Some should be consulted to help make the right decision, others will be informed to keep them happy, and others will need to be influenced to persuade them.

There are huge risks for the government in getting support for a good deal. A significant challenge of dealing with the EU is there’s no single decision maker and a wide variety of opinions held.

Publicly, EU officials have stated they will not negotiate prior to triggering Article 50, but ideally, the key players should be engaged early, so decision areas can be presented and tested.

The 11 step plan for Brexit

To get the best outcome for Brexit, Theresa May needs to consider each decision area and have regular engagements with the key players to continually refine the deal. The plan needs to prioritise engagement with the most influential people, and gradually build a consensus.

Given it’s not clear what concessions the EU will make, the decisions will need to be teased out. The purpose of each engagement is to help work through agreements on each decision area so that decisions get increasingly mature.

The DASH Approach: repeatedly forming decisions and engaging with people to refine or influence respectively.

For Brexit, Theresa May should follow this 11 step engagement and decision plan:

Define Brexit Needs: consider affected groups, such as businesses and workers. Engage with the UK devolved leaders and industries to consult on decision areas. Explore trade options: engage with potential trading partners to understand free trade options if outside the single market. This helps establish the best alternative to a negotiated agreement with the EU. Create a draft Brexit Vision: define options for each decision area in the Brexit Vision. Evaluate the best fit for UK needs and impacts on other EU nations. Select preferred combinations to develop in further detail. Consider implementation options: define potential approaches for transitioning to options in the draft Brexit Vision to understand the complexity of implementation. Prepare for EU negotiation: understand the interests of each EU stakeholder and identify acceptable and problematic areas of Brexit Vision. Design an approach to influence, and adopt a “going-in” position for dealing with each stakeholder. Communicate Brexit Needs: set out high-level objectives to the public and media, without releasing preferred decision options. Engage with EU national leaders: on key areas of the Brexit Vision and seek their support based on appealing to their interests. After each engagement, take on board feedback to help refine the Brexit Vision. Engage with EU institution leaders: on the Brexit Vision, highlighting agreements of support already reached with key EU national leaders. Continue engaging and refining decisions: until in-principle agreements are reached in all areas. Keep UK devolved leaders and Parliament informed of engagement progress at a high level. Communicate the agreed Brexit Vision: set out agreements reached to the public and media, including the transition approach. Put deal to Parliament: debate the Brexit Vision and Implementation Plan.

The ordering of stakeholder engagement is important. EU national leaders are likely to be more pragmatic than EU institution leaders, so any agreements with the former then provide leverage with the later.

Most members of the public understandably want greater transparency on the government’s proposed Brexit Vision, but this creates a tension with the desire to play a strong negotiating hand. For instance, if EU leaders believe the UK government may go for a radical withdrawal from the single market at any cost, they are more likely to give concessions. Hard Brexit rhetoric can help negotiations but will make remain voters increasingly alarmed.

The government should consider at every stage what it can communicate to the public and parliament, but opportunities will not be known until the negotiation is underway. A hard fought negotiation will mean keeping more secrets, but if there are clear points of agreement it might allow for early announcements.

Rethinking planning

The way we think about planning for uncertain situations is often wrong. Often we want more detail at a stage when it’s unknowable.

In the early stages of a major change, we cannot control the detailed timetable, but it’s imperative we control the decision making. Detailed plans are often used as a crutch in times of uncertainty, but they do little to resolve the underlying issues.

It’s helpful to have a mindset of being comfortable with uncertainty, knowing that there are ways to resolve it. Using a decision plan we directly focus on what needs to be resolved, so we can react to an unfolding situation and get the best possible outcome.

There are similarities between Brexit and any major change initiative in an organisation. The scale is different, but the challenges of making early-stage decisions whilst dealing with people are just as relevant.