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— Breaking News —

January 30th was not a good day for those hoping that the coronavirus would slowly fade away into nothingness as the China government quarantine did its work.

The virus was detected in Kerala – the patient was a student from Wuhan China – and is currently in the hospital being closely monitored. While the virus hasn’t reportedly spread in India – it was only a matter of time for the virus to reach there and the country is the second most populous in the world.

Kerala – with a population of 35 million – has none of the classic mega cities of India. However, it is a major hub in India for tourists and traveling and borders other major states nearby such as Karnataka which has double the population.

It’s also worth noting that India doesn’t have anywhere close to the modernization or medicine technology of China, along with nowhere close to the ability to quarantine. If the virus does take a foothold in India, realistically, I expect it to quickly become several times as big as it is in China.

Separately, 7000 passengers are stuck on a cruise ship off of the coast of Italy as a couple was being tested for the coronavirus. The women and her husband were from Hong Kong and were said to have arrived from Macau on Jan. 25 from Italy. Interestingly enough, the reported cases from Macau were much smaller on Jan. 25.

More so, it does mean the couple spent 5 days around and about Italy and the cruise. This is especially important because disease spreads quickly on cruises in the closed off environment. The authorities seem to be handling the quarantine properly, but part of the risk here depends on what the couple did before getting on the ship.

Separately, in the U.S., the first human-human virus transmission has been recorded in Chicago from a women who was previously sick. The CDC was quick to note that the man was only affected after spending significant time with his wife and after she started to show symptoms of the virus – so this revelation is nothing new or surprising.

They did state they expect to see more U.S. cases, but again that’s nothing surprising.

We remain on the lookout for evidence to confirm or deny whether asymptomatic contagious carriers exist and other unknowns about the virus.

There are now more than 8000 confirmed cases of the virus passing SARS. Epidemic modeling estimates haven’t changed in some time, however, I expect cases to reach 10+ thousand within 24 hours.