AFTER the momentous events of the past few months in Catalonia, the regional election on December 21st suggests that, remarkably, not much has changed. A record turnout of 83% of the electorate of 5.5m has delivered a parliament with a narrow majority of separatists, just what it had been before it was dissolved.

That is bad news for Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s prime minister, and his efforts to keep his country together. True, in a symbolic blow to the cause of Catalan independence, Ciudadanos, a centre-right anti-nationalist party, became the largest political force, albeit with only 25% of the vote. On the other hand, the list of Carles Puigdemont, the fugitive regional president, outpolled Esquerra (Republican Left), the party of his jailed former coalition partner, Oriol Junqueras. Widely written off a month ago, Mr Puigdemont is perhaps the biggest winner of the election, and will demand his reinstatement as president.

Mr Rajoy called the vote after intervening to suspend self-government in one of Spain’s richest regions following a unilateral declaration of independence in October organised by Mr Puigdemont’s administration. This in turn came after an unconstitutional independence referendum organised by the separatists and marred by police violence. These events have had an economic cost for Catalonia, with almost 3,000 companies moving their legal domicile outside the region and unemployment edging up.

The election took place in extraordinary circumstances, with Mr Puigdemont campaigning by videolink from Brussels, where he fled to avoid a charge of rebellion. In all, eight of those elected to parliament on the separatist parties’ lists are either in jail or exile. Mr Puigdemont’s emotional appeal to restore his government, end rule by Madrid and free the independence leaders served to shore up the separatist vote. “Puigdemont, president” chanted euphoric supporters at his Barcelona campaign headquarters.

The election showed that Catalonia remains divided into two almost equal blocks, but with big changes inside each segment. The total separatist vote was 47.6%, barely down on 2015 despite the bigger turnout. Because the electoral system gives a bit of extra weight to rural areas, where they are strong, the three separatist parties won 70 of the 135 seats in the Catalan parliament (down from 72, but still a slender majority). Ciudadanos’s advance came mainly at the expense of Mr Rajoy’s People’s Party, which was outpolled even by the CUP, a bunch of separatist anarchists. Inés Arrimadas, the young and combative leader of Ciudadanos in Catalonia, has confirmed that she is a rising star in Spanish politics. The Socialists, who tried to appeal to moderate Catalan nationalism, did less well than they expected.

What happens now? Mr Puigdemont will put pressure on Esquerra to return him to the presidency. He risks arrest if he returns to Catalonia. It is not clear whether those who face charges will be able to vote in the new parliament. But the 2m Catalans who favour independence would see a government headed by Ms Arrimadas as illegitimate.

Mr Rajoy took a risk by calling an immediate election (though it served to reduce protests over suspending Catalan self-government). It turned out to be the most polarised contest Catalonia has seen. The separatists still cannot claim to speak for a majority of Catalans, nor to have a mandate for unilateral action of the kind they took in October. But they have shown once again that they represent a very large minority whose demand for a legal referendum on independence—and now, too, for an amnesty—will not go away. And that poses an enormous difficulty for Mr Rajoy. His gamble has failed.