First of all, let’s get this straight: in order for Hillary Clinton to win, something really, really terrible has to happen to Barack Obama in the next few weeks. I mean way more damaging than the Wright issue has been (turns out that even the best smear campaign Fox News had to offer could only scratch the surface of his support). We’re talking “Breaking: Barack Obama eats white babies to stay alive” kind of bad news. Without that storyline, there is absolutely no incentive for superdelegates to overthrow the wishes of the voters, especially with the added risk of losing the crucial African American voter bloc for a generation. If Obama leads in the pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, he will be the nominee. Most superdelegates are elected officials themselves, and not a one of them will benefit from being branded a back-room machine politician.

I think even the most devoted Hillary supporters would have to admit that was true – Barack needs to SERIOUSLY stumble to give the Hilldawg any sort of an opening. Given that, I believe she would actually be best served to suspend her campaign now. Here’s why:

If Hillary suspends her campaign now, she can freeze her plummeting negatives and make up some ground with people who were turned off by the tone of her campaign. By beginning the job of reuniting the party, she will win back a lot of credit with people who are angry with her solely because of the ridiculous campaign she’s run recently (and there are a lot of them – not just in the general voting population but especially within the ranks of party-faithful superdelegates).

But even if scandal really does descend on Obama’s campaign and ruin his chances, which is now really her only hope to the nomination, she’ll be in a MUCH better position to win the nomination at the convention if she suspends now.

The reason? John Edwards.

By “suspending” his campaign, he left the door open to that all-important second vote at the convention. By suspending it at the right time and going out with class, he built enormous goodwill with supporters on both sides. And if something awful really does happen to Obama’s campaign, Edwards will be right there in position, waiting to sweep up Obama’s pledged delegates. The longer Clinton continues this campaign, the more she drives those pledged delegates away – to the point where they would not even vote for her even if Obama is politically destroyed. In fact, at the rate we’re going right now, a lot of people would hold her accountable for that very destruction whether she had any hand in it or not.

Keep in mind that Obama’s pledged delegates are his most committed supporters. They are chosen by the campaign, and they are chosen largely for their loyalty and commitment to his candidacy. Contrary to Mrs. Clinton’s recently-stated wishes, they will not change their minds at the convention unless Obama’s campaign is seriously broken. And if it is broken, these delegates – the people who volunteered for him and served as precinct captains and made phone calls for him – are going to be MUCH more sympathetic to Mr. Edwards as long as Hillary continues to try to kneecap Obama.

And superdelegates will have a choice between someone who suspended their campaign for the good of the party – and someone who actually had their donors try to blackmail the entire DCCC to the detriment of every cause they claim to believe in.

Hillary can start rebuilding trust within the party if she suspends now – but if she doesn’t, she had better watch her back for an Edwards offensive at the convention, because he would be most Obama supporters’ second choice at this point.