How many jobs did the American economy add in January?

The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.

The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.

The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment. Employment always falls in January, as temporary Christmas jobs end. So the government applies seasonal adjustment factors in an effort to discern the real trend of the economy apart from seasonal fluctuations. The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs. The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.

A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions. Labor mobility is down, as fewer workers quit to seek better jobs and employers both hire and fire fewer people than they used to do. If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller.

But there are plenty of signs that gains are real. Consider the annual change in nonfarm payrolls. Seasonal factors should have no effect there. Over the last 12 months, the economy added nearly two million jobs, more than in any similar period since early 2007. These numbers do make it appear that the economy is gaining momentum, even if the January gain does turn out to be overstated.



For the 12 months, here are some of the changes.

Total +1.5% Private Sector +2.1%

Construction +2.1%

Manufacturing +2.0%

Information Services -1.7%

Financial Activities +0.3%

Professional and Business Services +3.5%

Education and Health Services +2.1%

Leisure and Hospitality +2.7% Government -1.2%

Federal government -1.5%

State governments -1.4%

Local governments -1.1%

Imagine that. A recovery in which the private sector grows and the government shrinks. Even construction jobs are finally going up.

There are still significant risks, largely from Europe. But it is beginning to look as if the economy will be better come fall than many expected it to be.