Poll: McCain and Obama lead in Texas Huckabee is still defiant; Clinton maintains hold on Hispanic vote

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., wades into a crowd of supporters Thursday in Beaumont. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., wades into a crowd of supporters Thursday in Beaumont. Photo: RICK BOWMER, ASSOCIATED PRESS Photo: RICK BOWMER, ASSOCIATED PRESS Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close Poll: McCain and Obama lead in Texas 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama appears to be consolidating a lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton among most constituent groups in Texas except Hispanics, according to a new tracking poll.

The survey found Obama leading 48.2 percent to 41.7 percent over Clinton statewide. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday for the Houston Chronicle, Reuters and C-SPAN by Zogby International, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. John McCain appears headed to victory in Texas over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Texas congressman Ron Paul of Lake Jackson. McCain led with 53.4 percent support to Huckabee's 26.8 percent and Paul's 10.7 percent in a survey that had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. McCain led among all groups, including self-identified conservatives.

The tracking poll, which will be conducted daily until next Tuesday's election, found Obama leading with both men and women. He and Clinton were essentially tied among Anglos, but he held 84.9 percent support among blacks and she had the support of 54.9 percent of the Hispanics surveyed.

That Hispanic backing helped give Clinton a lead in South Texas of 66.7 percent. She also led in West Texas, which would include heavily Hispanic El Paso.

Obama led in every other region and was supported by about 60 percent of those surveyed in Houston and Dallas — which have more nominating delegates at stake than all of the region from San Antonio to Brownsville to El Paso.

Next Tuesday's primaries in Texas and Ohio are crucial for Clinton to keep her campaign alive in the face of Obama's surge in the past three weeks. The tracking poll in Ohio showed a close race, with Clinton leading 44.1 percent to 41.5 percent over Obama. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Conservatives crucial

In Houston on Thursday, McCain said he can pull conservative voters to his side for the general election because he offers clear policy differences with Clinton and Obama.

For instance, he remarked, "we are succeeding in Iraq, something that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton won't acknowledge."

As the Arizona senator acknowledged, he is still working on winning his party's nomination and the backing of many conservatives, who disagree with his push for earned citizenship opportunities for illegal immigrants, endorsement of campaign finance reforms and other issues.

Huckabee told a Waco audience he is the only true conservative in the race, and the only major candidate of either party "without a Washington address." Though trailing McCain badly in the national convention delegate count, Huckabee said he is not about to give up.

"You can beat me but you can't make me quit," Huckabee said with a defiant smile.

Clinton had held a lead in the race that evaporated in the past several weeks.

One area where she apparently bounced back in the past month was in fundraising. Obama shocked her in January by raising $36 million to her $14 million. Clinton aides told The Associated Press on Thursday that Clinton raised $35 million in February. Obama's campaign said he had raised more than $50 million in February, but did not release the amount.

"It was incredibly gratifying to see people come forth with this vote of confidence in me," Clinton told reporters in Hanging Rock, Ohio. "Obviously this is a tremendous benefit to my campaign."

The money could give Clinton the ability to soldier on even if Texas is a setback for her in the fight for delegates to the national nominating convention.

Clinton was in Houston on Thursday night for an energy summit.

Making up their minds

Momentum is clearly on Obama's side, though. A Texas Democratic superdelegate — state Rep. Senfronia Thompson of Houston — Thursday switched her support from Clinton to Obama.

Pollster John Zogby said the statistics that really show the momentum for Obama is the timing of when people made up their mind on how to vote. He said Clinton leads "substantially" among those who made up their minds more than a month ago, but Obama leads almost "two-to-one" among those who made up their minds recently.

Earlier in the day, Obama held a town hall meeting in Austin to talk about the economy, which he said is on the brink of a recession.

"This was not an inevitable part of the business cycle," Obama said. "It was a failure of leadership in Washington — a Washington where George Bush hands out billions of tax cuts to the wealthiest few for eight long years, and John McCain promises to make those same tax cuts permanent."

Obama also criticized McCain's statements about staying in Iraq for 100 years, saying that would cost trillions of dollars. Obama favors a total pullout from Iraq within a year after taking office.

McCain responded in Houston by saying his comments about Iraq have been taken out of context. He said he was talking about a military presence to guarantee stability, not an ongoing war.

"No American argues against our military presence in Korea or Japan or Germany or Kuwait or other places, or Turkey, because America is not receiving casualties," McCain said. "I think, generally speaking, we have a more secure world thanks to American presence, particularly in Asia, by the way, as we see the rising influence of China."

San Antonio Express-News reporter Lisa Sandberg and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

r.g.ratcliffe@chron.com

alan.bernstein@chron.com