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The selling point for official games will be that buyers can play them with other gamers on the firms’ official networks, said Hanson of Niko Partners. They’ll include more professional translations and come with better customer service if something goes wrong.

But analysts said that will still be a tough sell given the price of hardware. The newest version of Xbox One is selling for $700 (4,299 yuan), about $200 more than the same model in the United States. Buyers can also visit China’s biggest online marketplaces to buy an Xbox One — some that have been smuggled into the country — for about $550.

“There are enough Chinese consumers that have the budget and love to show off new devices,” he said, “but it is a big step from a $100 ‘homemade’ Xbox with unlimited free games to a $500 Xbox with paid games.”

Though strict regulations and widespread counterfeiting once scared many businesses away, China’s booming middle class has made the country an irresistible stop for international technology launches. Apple recently received approval to offer its new iPhone 6 in China, the largest smartphone market in the world, and will sell them on Oct. 16 starting at about $860 (5,288 renminbi).

For Microsoft, analysts said, the debut is important to far more than just the fate of its video games. A successful launch there could persuade Chinese buyers to pick up its phones, tablets and software, too, further establishing its lucrative ecosystem in the most populous country on Earth.

“This is the art of the long view when it comes to a big launch,” said McNealy. “This isn’t simply about the next three months. This is about the next five, six years.”