Israel, and Barack Obama: The Turner campaign certainly helped channel voter angst, taking every opportunity it could to tie Obama and Weprin in the minds of voters. But it didn't stop on the economy. Turner, a Catholic, was enormously successful in painting himself as a more steadfast and enthusiastic friend to Israel than Weprin, an Orthodox Jew. The argument: Obama is weak on Israel and disrespected Benjamin Netanyahu by reportedly walking out on him this spring. And Weprin, as a loyal Democrat, supports Obama's Israel policy (despite Weprin's insistence that he really, really doesn't). "The two candidates agreed completely on Israel; both clearly supported a strong U.S.-Israel relationship," wrote the Democratic Party-affiliated National Jewish Democratic Council in its election post-mortem, "with not a bit of difference between them." They might be right on substance. But voters seemed to latch onto the notion that a vote for Weprin was the weaker option when it came to Israel.

Success in conservative Jewish communities looks to have provided a meaningful edge. "The Orthodox and Hasidic communities came out," observed Queens Republican Party executive chair Vince Tabone at Turner's watch party in Howard Beach last night. Turner did far better in the Brooklyn slice of the district that is home to many of those targeted voters, winning 67 percent of the vote, than in NY-9 as a whole.

Did We Mention the U.S. Economy and Barack Obama? Importantly, the Turner campaign was able to bundle concerns over Obama's handling of economic issues and worries over his Israeli policy into one big general sense of dis-ease about the American president, and thus Weprin. Said Conservative Party of New York chair Michael R. Long last night: "It's a whole combination of failures in the White House. It's taxes. It's Medicare. It's the umbrage over treating our best ally [that is, Israel] that way." And here was Speaker John Boehner, tweeting last night: "His pro-jobs agenda & strong support for Israel clearly resonated w/ NYC voters." And National Republican Congressional Committee Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, put out this statement: "New Yorkers put Washington Democrats on notice that voters are losing confidence in a President whose policies assault job-creators and affront Israel." The Turner campaign never fully articulated what, exactly, was wrong with the president in a way that encompassed both economic issues and Israel. But it validated voters' sense that something simply isn't totally right with the guy.

"Tea Party Turner": Democrats' efforts to brand the Republican as a Medicare-scrapping "scary, scary" uber-conservative, to borrow a phrase from one Weprin campaign surrogate, fell flat. In part, that's because of the 70-something Turner's own vibe: more late-in-life Senator Frank Lautenberg than Michele Bachmann on the stump. Turner had another asset: voters got a chance to meet him during his high-performing but losing 2010 challenge to Weiner. "Bob Turner has been running for office for 14 months," said Tabone. Caricatures that otherwise might have stuck during a compressed special election campaign were undermined by the general familiarity with Turner among likely voters.