Australia’s weather forecasters have offered the country’s drought-hit farmers scarce relief after predicting that warmer and drier conditions are set to continue through spring.

After a drier than average year so far, the Bureau of Meteorology released its spring outlook on Thursday and warned that southern and south-eastern parts of the country are facing the prospect of an early summer heatwave.

Andrew Watkins, manager of long-range forecasts at the BoM, said parts of the country had received less than half of their average rainfall in winter. For example, Broken Hill in western New South Wales which received just 9% of its winter average and Dubbo had 40%.

Watkins said spring was likely to bring similar conditions for large parts of Australia, as well as a chance of early heatwaves.

“We might expect to see summer start a little early this year in many places, a chance of an early heatwave is certainly on the cards for southern and south-eastern parts of Australia,” he said.

“Unfortunately no area is looking at good odds of above average rainfall, particularly in south-eastern Australia.”

He said the country as a whole had experienced around its 12th driest winter on record, but NSW, where 100% of the state is now drought-declared, had a winter that was among its top five driest.

Watkins said the odds were 60% to 80% that the dry conditions would continue through NSW, Victoria and parts of South Australia.

“In terms of the drought areas, still looking at average to below average rainfall unfortunately ... and warmer than average conditions through those areas as well,” he said.

“It may be that we’re getting into late spring or even summer before we start to see some better rains in those areas.”

The BoM said the drier and warmer conditions through winter had occurred without the presence of an El Niño but there was double the normal risk of an El Niño forming in spring, which usually intensifies hot and dry weather.

“This will basically mean that as we get into summer there’d be less chance of having those recovery rains that we need,” Watkins said.

“We might have to wait till as late as autumn in 2019 to start seeing some recovery rains in the drought areas.”