A MONSOON low building in the Gulf of Carpentaria has a high chance of developing into a cyclone on Sunday.

The Bureau of Meteorology said a tropical low was likely to form within the monsoon trough overnight tonight or on Friday, as a westerly surge develops through the Arafura Sea.

The tropical low is expected to develop quickly over the weekend, with an increasing risk of a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Carpentaria late on Saturday or early Sunday.

The initial movement of the tropical low is likely to be slow and erratic, before moving in a south to south west direction toward.

The next cyclone to form in Australian waters will be called Tropical Cyclone Esther.



BoM forecaster Rosa Hoff urged people in the region to keep an eye on the forecast.

"There is a high chance of a cyclone forming on Sunday, which generally means over 50 per cent, so it is more likely than not," Ms Hoff said.

"It is due to the fact we have a monsoon surge feeding in the west to north west of the Gulf adding in moisture and creating conditions for cyclonegenesis.

Ms Hoff said at the moment there was an increase in cloud cover about the region, consistent with the monsoonal flow.

She said it was too early to say what impact the low and potential cyclone could have on the region.

"If a cyclone does develop with would have significant impact on nearby weather, it would be the dominant prevailing system.

"If it does develop we may see more easterly wind and more humidity for places such as Cairns and inland areas as well."

