This paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on Sub - Saharan Africa , using a CCC scenario that

integrates climate projections from17 GCMs and considers the GCMs’ relative performance regarding

their prediction of temperature and precipitation for the region. The CCC scenario is generated using a

newly developed entropy-based downscaling model. It is incorporated into a process-based crop growth

simulation model and a global hydrological model that is linked with IFPRI’s IMPACT water and food

projections model to assess the implications of climate change for food outcomes in the region.

When incorporated into IFPRI’s IMPACT water and food projections’ model, the impacts of the

scenario with climate change (compared with the historic climate scenario) include changes in area and

yield expansion, higher food prices, small changes in net cereal trade, slightly reduced calorie availability,

and growing childhood malnutrition in Sub - Saharan Africa .

However, even without climate change , Sub - Saharan Africa remains the most food -deprived

region, and the only region with projected increases in childhood malnutrition over the next two decades,

despite recent increases in economic prosperity and GDP generated in agriculture.

Cereal production growth in Sub - Saharan Africa is projected to decline by 3.2 percent as a result

of climate change , with declines in yield growth of 4.6 percent partially compensated for by increased

area expansion (2.1 percent). Among staple crops, negative yield impacts are projected to be largest for

wheat, followed by sweet potato, whereas overall yields for millet and sorghum are projected to be

slightly higher under climate change . Under climate change , by 2050, maize, rice, and wheat prices are

expected to be 4, 7, and 15 percent higher, respectively, compared with the historic climate scenario.

Higher food prices contribute directly to lower food demand, which declines for Sub - Saharan Africa by

1.5 percent by 2050. Little change in net cereal imports is expected as a result of climate change for Sub -

Saharan Africa as a whole because increases and declines in net cereal imports in different agroecological

zones balance out. However, it is projected that Eastern Africa will experience large increases—15

percent— in net cereal imports as a result of significant maize yield declines.

Most important, childhood malnutrition levels are projected to increase as a result of climate

change across Sub - Saharan Africa , with incremental increases from climate change alone of just below 1