The center-right politicians who have long ruled in Brussels now see a clear path to holding onto power — turning the fight over the EU's top jobs into a two-person contest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel vs. French President Emmanuel Macron.

And they expect Merkel to win, of course.

If Macron, who is working with European Liberals to build a new progressive force, proves unwilling to cut a deal that lets the center-right European People's Party (EPP) claim the European Commission presidency, the conservatives are hoping Merkel will help steamroll him and instead form a coalition with the center-left Social Democrats and the Greens.

As EPP officials describe it, such a coalition would allow them to claim the Commission presidency, the EU's top job, for Manfred Weber, the EPP candidate, while awarding the Parliament presidency to the Greens, and giving the Social Democrats a choice of either the European Council presidency or the position of high representative for foreign affairs.

If Macron and the Liberals get on board, the Council presidency would go to them. If not, Merkel could be generous and effectively let the French designate the next president of the European Central Bank, or she could teach the upstart Macron a lesson and ice out the Liberals.

For his part, Macron, seeing the same math, has undertaken an aggressive outreach campaign to the Socialists.

Whether the conservatives' theory will fly will become clear in the weeks ahead. According to the EU's new parliamentary math, at least the numbers would add up.

The EPP is set to control 179 seats; the Social Democrats 152 seats and the Greens 74 seats, for a total of 405 — comfortably above the 376 needed to form a majority. Macron's new liberal-progressive group, which has yet to choose a name for itself, is set to hold 109 seats.

Weber, who is trying to sell his grand plan for the EU's future leadership to the other groups, made clear at a news conference on Wednesday that he views the Greens as deserving of a prize given their strong election gains, and he specifically offered to take up issues important to them in inviting them to join his majority coalition.

"The EPP is simply ready to immediately start with a very compromise-oriented style," Weber said. "We see that, for example, the Green Party celebrated a success in the election.

"That's why the environmental issues, climate change issues, must be included, and the EPP is ready to talk with the Greens about these issues," Weber said. "And I hope ALDE and the Socialists will also be ready now to talk with us."

But to get to a vote in Parliament on the next Commission president, Weber would first have to be nominated by the European Council, where currently the numbers are stacked against the conservatives.

Six EU leaders, appointed as coordinators for their pan-European parties within the Council, will meet in Brussels on Friday night to begin their deliberations over candidates for the bloc's top jobs.

The conservatives are betting that the Socialist coordinators, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, will recognize that the only way they can secure a big prize is by backing an EPP-led coalition.

But bulldozing the president of France may prove impossible. Having the support of Germany and France, the EU's largest countries, is generally seen as essential for any incoming Commission chief. While Merkel and then-British Prime Minister David Cameron initially opposed Jean-Claude Juncker for Commission president in 2014, it is unclear that he could have won had Merkel not ultimately come around.

For his part, Macron, seeing the same math, has undertaken an aggressive outreach campaign to the Socialists in hopes of isolating the EPP in exactly the way the conservatives aim to isolate him.

With Merkel's governing coalition currently in a precarious position in Berlin, it's unclear just how much political strength she will be able to bring to Brussels in support of the EPP. Merkel remains the EU's most influential national leader, but she has declared that this is her last term and already relinquished leadership of her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). If her coalition collapses, she could face retirement sooner than expected.

Leadership fights

Even before the Council makes its nomination, however, the EPP may have to wait for the other political families to sort out their own internal leadership fights in the Parliament.

Those internal contests are now the main focus of attention in the legislature. While the EPP on Wednesday quickly reelected Weber as leader of its parliamentary group, the new group including the Liberals and Macron's centrists will not pick a leader until June 19. Meanwhile, several Social Democrats are maneuvering to oust the group's current German leader, Udo Bullmann, in a vote scheduled for June 18.

Among the front-runners to replace Bullmann is Iratxe García, an MEP for the Spanish Socialists from the Basque region. García told POLITICO it is too soon to predict how the leadership puzzle would be solved, but said that pro-EU groups were intent on maintaining control of the legislature.

If Weber is blocked, the Socialist nominee, Frans Timmermans, is likely to be torpedoed in retaliation by the conservatives.

“What we’re clear about is that we’re going to draw a red line against Euroskeptic and far-right political forces in the Parliament,” García said.

Asked if she would run for group leader of the Socialists, García said: “We’re evaluating and assessing different options, although there’s nothing decided yet."

In some cases, the individual aspirations of key figures now conflict with the objectives of their party.

Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe group, is widely known to covet the job of Parliament president. But putting him in that post would undercut the chances of another Liberal candidate, such as European Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager of Denmark, from becoming Commission president.

Macron mystery

Macron has made clear that he wants to block Weber, but it's not clear who he ultimately wants to become Commission president.

One frequently mentioned conservative alternative to Weber is the EU's Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. Because Barnier is French, it would be difficult for Macron to vote against him. But Élysée Palace officials have sent signals recently that Macron considers Barnier part of an old generation of EU leaders that needs to be replaced.

If Weber is blocked, the Socialist nominee, Frans Timmermans, is likely to be torpedoed in retaliation by the conservatives, leaving the field wide open.

Another urgent question is what the Greens, who stand to control 74 seats in Parliament, will demand in exchange for joining a coalition in the legislature, given their votes are absolutely crucial to forming a pro-EU majority that doesn't include both the conservatives and the liberals. At a meeting Wednesday evening of party group leaders, the Greens pushed for drawing up a substantive policy platform and urged the creation of working groups to focus on specific policy areas. It's not expected to be an easy or quick process.

“We are walking on eggs,” said one Green official. “Some groups are yet to be formed.”

The Greens, this politician said, would be adamant in demanding “one or several” green Commissioners — a request that will require help from one or more national capitals.

The politician said he has “mixed feelings” about the ability of the four pro-EU groups to find common ground. The politician questioned how committed the others would be to environmental causes.

“From one side, we have declarations of faith in the three other groups that they stand for defending the environment,” he said. “On the other side, I believe the reaction risks being 'those Greens, they are expensive.'”

However, the leaders of the four main pro-EU groups issued a statement after their meeting declaring they agreed to work together to define "a common ambition for the next legislative period," which would be a platform for the next Commission president. They aim to have drawn up the program by the time EU leaders meet to discuss the top jobs on June 20 and 21.

With both Liberals and Greens having made gains in the election, an agreement on a common policy program between three or four groups could prove extremely difficult, though some officials said they detected a greater willingness for compromise.

So far, the conservatives are demonstrating the cohesion and discipline that has helped them control the top EU jobs for decades.

They reelected Weber overwhelmingly on Wednesday, if only temporarily because they hope he will be elevated to Commission president. The vote, however, also brought some attention Weber could have done without as it highlighted that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party — although suspended from the EPP alliance of parties — remains active in the parliamentary group and voted in support of Weber.

The EPP group also elected vice presidents who are expected to vie for top jobs. Esteban González Pons, a Spaniard, is among the contenders to lead the group if Weber steps aside. González Pons, a vice chair of the EPP and a former spokesperson of the Popular Party in the Spanish senate, has been an MEP since 2014.

Esther de Lange, a Dutch MEP, is also said to covet the group leader post, while Mairead McGuinness, an Irish MEP, is regarded as a potential candidate for Parliament president.

The complexity of the early negotiations offers a preview of just how difficult it will be to manage the new Parliament, in which the traditional center-left and center-right parties have lost scores of seats compared with five years ago, and far-right, nationalist and populist forces have gained substantial ground and will control some 200 seats, though they are divided among multiple groups.

Weber, at his news conference, insisted the EPP is the party prepared to lead the way. "We are united," he said. "We have a good plan. We are ready for negotiations. We are ready for compromise. And that is our offer."

Diego Torres contributed reporting.