In a head-to-head matchup in Arizona, Trump's edge remains five points, 46 percent to 41 percent. In Georgia, however, Trump is ahead by just one point among likely voters, 45 percent to 44 percent, with Johnson at 8 percent. (Stein isn't on the ballot in the state.) In September, Trump was up two points, 44 percent to 42 percent. Trump's lead is an identical one point in a race without Johnson — Trump 47 percent, Clinton 46 percent.

And in Texas, Trump's advantage over Clinton is nine points, 49 percent to 40 percent, with Johnson at 6 percent and Stein at 2 percent.



But among the larger universe of registered voters, Trump's lead in the Lone Star State is just four points, 45 percent to 41 percent. (The poll finds a smaller percentage of Latino voters in Texas being likely voters than their makeup of all registered voters in the state.)

Clinton's African-American performance is keeping it close in Georgia

One of the biggest reasons why Georgia is more competitive than Arizona is due to the African-American vote in Georgia being a larger — and more lopsided — force than Latinos in Arizona. According to the poll, African Americans make up 29 percent of likely voters, and they're breaking for Clinton by a 91 percent to 6 percent margin. In Arizona, by contrast, Latinos make up 21 percent of likely voters, and they're supporting Clinton by a smaller 66 percent-to-26 percent clip.

Trump leads in the early voting, though barely in Arizona and Georgia

All three states allow early in-person voting, and Trump is ahead here in all three states — although narrowly in Arizona and Georgia. In Arizona, 58 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and they're breaking for Trump by a narrow 47 percent-to-44 percent margin. In Georgia, 40 percent of likely voters have already voted, and Trump enjoys a two-point lead, 48 percent to 46 percent. And in Texas, 54 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and Trump is ahead here by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent

Looking down the ballot