Now, part of the Leicester City story has been good fortune. It has outperformed its expected goals for most of the season, scoring more goals and conceding fewer than would be typical based on chances created and conceded. Further, the Foxes have played extremely well in the clutch, consistently winning close matches at rates that are probably not sustainable. In matches decided by one goal or fewer, Leicester is 14-10-2, by far the best in the Premier League. As is clear from the chart, while the best teams tend to win the most close matches, it is not as strong a marker of team quality as points. Indeed, clubs that win lots of close matches tend to regress to the mean.

Of course, Leicester has resolutely failed to regress to most any mean this season. When the Foxes lost to Arsenal on Feb. 14, it looked like it might finally be the moment they came back to earth. Leading Arsenal and Spurs by just two points with 12 to play and well behind in the underlying stats, Leicester projected to decline. Instead, the very opposite happened. The Foxes have not lost since the 14th, going 7-2-0 and outscoring their opponents 15-4.

And this has not been, primarily, a story of finishing rates. Leicester’s expected goals difference in that time is over plus-nine, second best in the Premier League. Only Tottenham at about plus-10 is better, while Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool are all several goals off the pace. So down the stretch, with a historic Premier League title on the line, Leicester City has outperformed all the biggest clubs in the league while playing Spurs close enough to maintain a lead in the table.

What’s particularly impressive here is that Leicester put up dominating expected goals numbers without creating that many more shots than its opponents. Leicester attempted 119 shots while conceding 108, a difference of just plus-11. Liverpool and Manchester City, both of which have put up worse expected goals numbers (and taken fewer points) have plus-58 and plus-46 shot difference stats in the same time.

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