Thursday, March 12 – Hector Olivera Watch. More leakage from the Rumor Pipe. More guesses. More speculation… and we continue to wait on an answer. The Atlanta Braves are rumored to be interested.

The MLB Trade Rumors site has been reduced to a poll asking the opinions of their readers on where Olivera will ultimately sign. Surprisingly enough (to me, at least), the Braves are currently winning the poll… but it’s still early and the beach crowd is still waking up out there on the West Coast. Look for a Dodgers/Padres surge to occur later. (Update: yep – Padres now leading).

Our last update came on Tuesday, but there have actually been a few tangible developments since then. Let’s take another look.

The News

The Marlins seem to be emerging as a late-arriving, though serious contender. Ordinarily, I would dismiss this due to their seeming lack of interest prior to this week, but you can never discount the possible influence/draw of the Miami-Dade Cuban community to a Cuban expatriate.

MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reported yesterday that the Fish were in “substantive talks” for Olivera and were “comfortable” spending something in the $50 million range. However, they – like everyone else – are having to start over after Olivera changed agent representation this week .

. An earlier report put the Padres also in that $50 million range.

MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote on Tuesday that the Braves “hope his cost drops into their comfort zone” which he is gauging to be in the $30-40 million range. More on that a bit later .

. No word on others seemingly sitting on the periphery of negotiations, whether we’re talking about the seriously interested Dodgers or the familiarly acquainted Athletics or Giants. That would appear to be the entire list of suitors, though another ‘mystery team’ can never be ruled out.

Now the Speculation

MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez has come the closest, but says only that terms of “4 to 6 years” are under consideration. We don’t know who offered what, so we’re left to guess. Part of my thinking in what follows is that no team has stuck its neck out to play a trump card (see also: Arizona and Yasmany Tomas), so they are all likely in the same neighborhood of average annual contract value (AAV).

So: which deal looks more competitive? A Braves offer of perhaps 4 years and $36 million or an offer from the Marlins or Padres at, say, 6 years and $48 million (all are guesses)?

Does the player go for a shorter term – effectively a forced “opt out” clause – in the hopes that he can land a better, second deal in 3-4 years’ time once established as a major league performer? Or does he take the guaranteed coin now as he’s about to turn 30?

OTHER FACTORS

California taxes vs. Georgia vs. Florida (no state income tax there). Monetarily, you would think that the Padres would need to pony up an additional million or two to match bids from the Southeastern locales. Then again, James Shields opted for San Diego rather than Miami when both clubs were at least close on dollars.

there has been widespread speculation that human smugglers have been at work to get these players out of Cuba – a task for which there are demands on the future earnings of those players. The best documented evidence of this thus far involvesand boxer Yunior Despaigne, the latter whose life has been threatened by a smuggler over unpaid ‘travel’ debts involving Puig.

I mention this because the manner in which so many players are getting out of Cuba is shrouded in mystery and because it smacks of an underworldly operation, yet there’s no way to really know (a) what shady deal Olivera might be subject to; or (b) how it might influence his decision-making process.

A shorter contract, for instance, could serve to get him out from under a debt like this more quickly. If a contract percentage payoff were involved, then a shorter, smaller contract would work in his favor… though not necessarily fully pacify those after his cash. But as I say – this is all speculation, though all of this could be in play to affect the mindset of the player, and thus his decision-making process.

Atlanta’s Comfort Level

Frankly, I have to wonder about the Braves in all of this. If they are truly messing around down at the $30-40 million level, then I would have to question their motivation:

Is this because they believe Olivera is that risky? If so, then don’t bid at all.

Is this because of the player’s age and the desire to avoid a long-term risk into his mid-30’s? Okay, though you still might not be competitive in the bidding (notwithstanding the possibility of a second contract idea I mentioned above).

Is this because they don’t wish to block future prospects (Rio Ruiz in particular)? That’s actually a less useful reason, since Ruiz would still have value and could be swapped elsewhere if truly blocked.

Regardless of the reason, such a significantly lower number – and/or years is effectively telling Olivera “we like you, but we have concerns.” San Diego and Miami are therefore not going to provide those same vibes if they are the ones going for 6 year deals and pushing $50 million.

As a result, unless Olivera wants to “bet on himself” and go for a second free agent deal in 3-4 years, I expect that Atlanta is now in third place in this sweepstakes. Yahoo sports (Jeff Passan) believes that the Padres will win… I cannot disagree. I am personally okay with that, though I also understand that a lot of fans will not be.

Still hoping this is all done by the end of the week… but that’s getting close now.