Senate Democrats will never vote to repeal Obamacare. But once the deed is done, a surprising number of them say they’re open to helping Republicans replace it.

“If it makes sense, I think there’ll be a lot of Democrats who would be for it,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).


As Republicans aim to make good on their years-long vow to quash Obamacare and replace it with their own health care vision, they’ll have to do something Democrats were never able to: Bring members of the opposing party on board. Enacting any substantive alternative will take at least eight Democratic votes in the Senate.

Yet the GOP will have powerful leverage that Democrats lacked in 2009 – namely, a huge number of members facing reelection in hostile territory.

Twenty-five Democrats are on the ballot in 2018, including 10 in states that Donald Trump just won. The GOP is betting that many or most in the latter group will be under irresistible pressure to back an Obamacare replacement, if the alternative is leaving millions of people in the lurch without insurance.

Interviews with more than a half-dozen Democratic senators spanning the party's ideological spectrum suggest the Republican strategy may not be far-fetched. As harshly partisan as the entire Obamacare experience has been, replacing it could draw bipartisan backing, as long as the changes are more adjustment than overhaul.

“If they want to change things around the edges, fix some of the things we agree ought to be fixed and call it Trumpcare, that’s OK,” said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who caucuses with the Democrats and is up for reelection in 2018. “Let’s get people covered.”

There’s a difference, of course, between Democrats saying they’re willing to entertain a GOP replacement and voting for one. Democrats in tough races can burnish their bipartisan bona fides just by expressing openness to working with Republicans on health care.

McCaskill, for one, is skeptical Republicans can craft a workable replacement that satisfies conservatives without repelling centrist Democrats. “For six years, I’ve looked [for Republican replacement plans] in closets, I’ve looked in committee rooms, I’ve looked under desks. …They’ve had six frickin’ years to figure it out.”

Incoming Minority Leader Chuck Schumer essentially ruled out bipartisan cooperation on an Obamacare alternative, saying “we’re not going to do a replacement” if the law is repealed and squashing the idea of bipartisan cooperation on any half-measure. Other Democrats scoff at the idea of assisting what they call a Republican attempt to hold the health care of 22 million Americans hostage as they debate replacement plans.

But Republicans aren't focused on Schumer; they’re looking to pick off rank-and-file members who they believe won’t risk being blamed for millions of Americans losing their insurance.

Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who will run the party’s Senate campaign arm next cycle, said “there are seven senators on the Democratic side that will have a political reason to work with us.” The challenge, he said, will be finding the eighth, since lawmakers will want to avoid being seen as the deciding vote – a potentially career-defining scarlet letter.

Overall, the GOP search will begin with the five Democrats up for reelection in states Trump won by double-digit margins: Sens. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Jon Tester of Montana and McCaskill.

Trump won Heitkamp’s state with more than 60 percent of the vote, and she went to Trump Tower recently to discuss job prospects in his administration. Heitkamp doesn’t appear especially eager to enter the health care replacement fray, waiting to see what Republicans put forward.

"Anything’s possible. We've got to get to a spot here in Washington, D.C., where we respond to peoples’ concerns," she said. "There are things that we could do that will improve access to health care and hopefully lower cost."

Manchin was more open, saying he opposes repeal but is "going to try to help and be productive" on a replacement.

The down-the-line partisan votes in 2009 and 2010 allowed Republicans to tag the Affordable Care Act as a massive social experiment cooked up by liberals. This time, Republicans have no choice but to find Democrats if they want to pull off their proposed overhaul: Democrats had a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority soon after Barack Obama took office; Republicans will have 52 seats to start Trump’s presidency.

Democrats believe the GOP will be hard-pressed to win any crossover votes. Public opinion, they predict, will turn quickly against Republicans after repeal. And any legislation moderate enough to conceivably entice Democrats will likely be unacceptable to GOP hard-liners, they predict.

"I don't see a way to the sweet spot that gets them eight Democrats they need and keeps all 52 Republicans," said one senior Democratic official. "The political calculation changes once we're in post-repeal world."

So far, Democrats are taking a hard line: They won’t support anything that reverses Obamacare’s overriding goal of providing millions more Americans with meaningful, affordable health care coverage.

But if the GOP comes up with a proposal to fix the flaws with the current law — such as faltering insurance exchanges and fast-rising premiums— while maintaining subsidies and coverage for low-income Americans? Well, in that case, some Democrats will be hard-pressed to stay on the sidelines.

“If there is a path toward saving the best parts of Obamacare that are actually helping deliver affordable quality health care to millions of people while addressing some of the challenges, flaws and weaknesses of Obamacare, we should work hard with Republicans on that,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). “But we don’t know yet if they’re serious.”

Democratic leaders are divided. Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the second-ranking party leader, said he’s open to “any serious good-faith effort to provide health insurance.”

But the new No. 3 Democrat, Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, dismissed the Republican effort. The replacement project is likely to be led by Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, a deal-cutting Republican with whom Murray enjoys a close working relationship.

“I have not heard one plausible way to do this,” Murray said. “I do not believe they’re going to be able to put something [together] that will literally tell millions of people in this country: ‘You’re going to be OK.’”

Privately, some Republicans believe the party will end up keeping many components of the law. And if they do, they may find significant Democratic support, if they can get over what’s expected to be a rancorous, hyperpartisan repeal vote next year.

Republican leaders have already said they won't introduce a massive piece of legislation to replace Obamacare. Rather, they plan to push piecemeal proposals targeting one part of health care policy at a time.

“If a bunch of Democrats want to vote against people being able to stay on their family insurance until age 26, they can do it. But I don’t think they’ll all do that,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). “In bite-sized pieces, it will be harder to resist.”

But that approach could prove challenging to enacting a cohesive policy, since some parts of any proposal are bound to be more popular than others. Lawmakers from both parties, for instance, will want to continue Obamacare’s ban on insurers denying patients because of pre-existing conditions. But conservatives are likely to balk at an individual mandate to pay for it.

Some Republicans are skeptical that Democrats will actually play ball. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who ran on an anti-Obamacare platform in 2010 and just won reelection, said Republicans are “probably not going to get a whole lot of help.”

But with Democrats eyeing the possibility of more losses in 2018 and trying to avoid the obstructionist label, Republicans believe they’ll come around. Tough campaigns, they say, have a way of motivating endangered lawmakers.

“Look at the lineup and the seats that they have to defend and the states that they have to defend them. That’s motivation,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.). “I don’t think the politics are in their favor to do blanket obstruction.”