By Die kalte Sonne

(German text translated by P Gosselin)

Images: NASA Observatory

The gigantic nuclear fusion power plant of the sun reliably supplies the earth with energy.

However, the IPCC’s current doctrine is that fluctuations in solar activity have no effect whatsoever on the Earth’s climate. Some climate scientists disagree with the IPCC and see a significant influence of the sun on the earth’s climate.

On July 1, 2019, a study by Bhargawa & Sing appeared in Advances in Space Research:

Solar irradiance, climatic indicators and climate change – An empirical analysis Since the Sun is the main source of energy for our planet therefore even a slight change in its output energy can make a huge difference in the climatic conditions of the terrestrial environment. The rate of energy coming from the Sun (solar irradiance) might affect our climate directly by changing the rate of solar heating of the Earth and the atmosphere and indirectly by changing the cloud forming processes. In the present paper, based on stability test of Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model, we have used the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition method for the analysis of climate variability. We have examined the possible connections among the solar irradiance and some climate indicators, viz., the global temperature anomaly, the global mean sea level, the global sea-ice extent and the global precipitation anomaly occurred during last forty years (1978–2017). In our investigation, we have observed that the impact of solar irradiance on the global surface temperature level in next decade will increase by ∼4.7% while the global mean sea level will increase about 0.67%. In the meantime, we have noticed about 5.3% decrement in the global sea-ice extent for the next decade. In case of the global precipitation anomaly we have not observed any particular trend just because of the variable climatic conditions. We also have studied the effect of CO 2 as anthropogenic forcing where we have observed that the global temperature in the next decade will increase by 2.7%; mean sea level will increase by 6.4%. Increasing abundance in CO 2 will be responsible for about 0.43% decrease in the sea-ice extent while there will not be any change in the precipitation pattern.”

In May 2018, Chassiot et al. had already reported a characteristic millennium cycle from the Central Massif of France, apparently driven by solar fluctuations and ocean cycles:

A 7000-year environmental history and soil erosion record inferred from the deep sediments of Lake Pavin (Massif Central, France) A 14-m long sedimentary sequence (core PAV12) was collected in the deepest part of Lake Pavin, a maar lake located in the French Massif Central. The PAV12 sedimentary sequence documents the lake’s environmental evolution since its formation 7000 years ago. The relationships between the catchment’s vegetation cover, erosion processes and changes in trophic status were shown using a multi-proxy characterization of mineral and organic fractions supported by palynological data. The record shows a succession of lithological units starting at the base with volcanoclastic material corresponding to the early stage of Lake Pavin. The deposition of organic-rich and diatomaceous sedimentary units above volcanoclastic material indicates an evolution toward a pristine lacustrine state. The Late Holocene environmental history of this lake is marked by two tipping points reflecting major environmental disturbances at ca. 4000 cal BP and after the deposition of erosive mass-wasting deposits (MWDs) at 1350 cal BP (AD 600) and 650 cal BP (AD 1300). The upper unit of core PAV12, which corresponds to the past 700 years, indicates that one of these MWDs was likely the driving force behind a major limnological change marked by a shift in redox-sensitive elements (i.e., current meromictic lacustrine state). The palynological diagram indicates a forested catchment where woodland clearances and agro-pastoral activities have remained limited except over the last 700 years. These findings suggest restricted human impact within the watershed compared to other regional archives. The reconstruction of the Lake Pavin erosion record determined from titanium and red amorphous particle fluxes highlights phases of enhanced erosion at ca. 6.5–5.5, 4.1–3.8, 3.5, 2.8–2.6, 1.6–1.4 cal kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age (LIA). A comparison between this erosion record, palaeoenvironmental archives from Western Europe and palaeoclimatic data supports an Atlantic signal driving precipitation patterns over Lake Pavin at centennial to millennial timescales. The influence of local human activities, even on a small scale, cannot be completely discounted as their impact on erosional processes may be amplified in a steep catchment such as that found in Lake Pavin.

In their conclusion they write:

[…] Consequently, the Lake Pavin erosion record appears primarily related to hydroclimatic fluctuations. The matching of enhanced terrigenous inputs with NAO negative phases and low TSI values supports both Atlantic and solar forcing at a centennial to millennial scale over the Holocene.

The Romanian climate also seems to be influenced by solar radiation, as Sfica et al. documented in 2018:

Solar signal on regional scale: A study of possible solar impact upon Romania’s climate The topic of this paper is to investigate whether a solar signal can be identified in the variation of climatic parameters at regional scale. This was done using eight climate parameters recorded in Romania during 1961–2013 which corresponds with four cycles of solar activity. The methodology is based on trend, composite and wavelet analysis. A weak solar influence with a clear spatial pattern was identified, especially during the cold season, on temperature and cloud cover. During the warm season, the influence seems to be spurious. A clear difference between the north-eastern Romania and the rest of the country was found in the response of local climate to solar trigger. The mountain chain induces persistent disparities in the distribution of the most parameters, which supports the fact that orography is an important feature to be considered when analysing solar imprint at regional scale. Possible mechanisms for the solar influence on climate at regional and local scale are proposed.

This paper by Moreno et al., which deals with climate change in Portugal, dates from March 2019. In this case, the sun modulates spring and summer temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):