It’s interesting what one can accomplish on a stomach full of barbeque.

On Monday afternoon I made the short trek down to Rollin Smoke BBQ to meet Marco D’Angelo of Pregame.com and Marc Meltzer of Vegas Chatter.com for one of our semi-regular gorgings that operates under the guise of a midday lunch. These meetings have become something of a tradition as of late, with the three of us devoting a good 15 minutes to the never-ending argument over which local eatery offers the best burger in town.

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Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers are going to have a tougher time getting back to the Super Bowl than many think.

Gluttonous pontifications aside, Monday’s conversation eventually turned to sports and the table's thoughts on the 2013 NFL season. After a couple minutes of kicking around some early predictions, Marco brought up the San Francisco 49ers, thus providing the catalyst for the following article.

For as terrific as the Niners have been in the two years since Jim Harbaugh assumed control of the team, we couldn’t help but consider the idea that this team may not make as deep a run this season as many are currently predicting.

While no final decisions were made (except for the unanimous agreement that all three of us were headed home for a nap), I thought this topic required immediate attention. And after a night of research, I came up with three factors that are working against the 49ers entering the 2013 season.

FACTOR 1: THE CURSE OF THE SUPER BOWL LOSER

Nobody’s asking you to believe in Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster or the Madden Cover Curse. Such notions border on the absurd. And while the word “curse” may be a tad foreboding, you simply cannot dispute the regression that occurs for teams in the season following a Super Bowl defeat.

The chart below compares three key statistics (record, point differential and turnover differential) for each of the past 15 Super Bowl losers in their seasons leading up to the big game with their seasons immediately following.

PT Diff: Point differential, TO Diff: Turnover differential

Note: The statistics highlighted in blue indicate an improvement in that specific category in the year following a Super Bowl loss.

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Well isn’t that something? The past 15 Super Bowl losers combined to average 4.0 less wins per season in the year following their big defeat. Point differential drops an average of 6.907 points per team while turnover differential plummets an average of 11.26 turnovers per team.

In addition…

1. Zero of the 15 teams made it back to the Super Bowl the following season.

2. Only one team (New England, 2012) made it as far as the Conference Championship game the following season.

3. Only four of the 15 teams (26.6%) made it past the Wild Card Round the following season.

4. Eight of the 15 teams (53.3%) failed to qualify for the playoffs the following season.

5. Only one team (Arizona, 2009) recorded more wins in the year following their Super Bowl loss (2008).

The 49ers went 11-5-1 in 2012 with a point differential of +7.0 and a turnover differential of +9.

FACTOR 2: THE SCHEDULE

The 49ers won 11 games last season against opponents who combined to post a record of 125-131 (.488) in 2011. San Francisco traveled a total of approximately 27,336 round trip miles by air for their eight road games, two of which took place in the Eastern Time zone.

2013 offers a more daunting challenge. This season’s schedule features 16 games against opponents who combined to post a record of 132-122-2 (.519) in 2012. The 49ers will travel approximately 28,324 round trip miles by air for their eight road contests, which includes three trips to the Eastern Time zone (Jacksonville, Washington, Tampa Bay).

Granted, the 988 additional air travel miles on the 2013 schedule shouldn’t be considered too significant of an increase, but it’s still worth noting that the additional mileage is close to the equivalent of a plane ride from San Francisco to Denver (947 miles).

Story continues