HIGH POINT, N.C., Sept. 26, 2016 – The High Point University Poll finds a large majority of North Carolina’s likely voters intend to watch the presidential debate tonight. Eighty-six percent of respondents said they will watch the presidential candidate debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

When asked to choose which problem is most important for the presidential candidates to address during the debate, the HPU Poll’s sample of likely voters indicated that “improving economic conditions” (21 percent), “protecting the U.S. from foreign threats” (16 percent), ”fighting terrorism” (15 percent) and “creating jobs” (11 percent) were most important to them.

The likely voters responding to the survey gave less support for these choices: “promoting education” (8 percent), “immigration” (6 percent), “protecting Social Security” (6 percent), “providing quality health care” (5 percent), “preserving Medicare” (2 percent) and “federal taxes” (2 percent).

“These findings highlight how important voters in North Carolina feel the choice is between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton for president,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, associate professor of political science and director of the HPU Poll. “There is no doubt that some people may tune in to see conflict and possible missteps, but debates can be an important source of information for voters about what the candidates know and how they might conduct themselves as president.”

When asked who they thought might win the Sept. 26 debate, 47 percent of the likely voters said that they thought Hillary Clinton would win the debate, while 36 percent of respondents said they thought Donald Trump would win. Only two percent of the likely voters said they expected a tie, while four percent expected “neither” to win.

“With the likely voters we surveyed, Hillary Clinton seems to edge out her debate opponent when it comes to being tonight’s expected debate winner,” says Brian McDonald, the associate director of the HPU Poll and adjunct professor. “It will be interesting to see if those who declare a winner in the debate will actually tune in to watch the debate.”

Likely voters – Presidential Debate watching

Do you think you will or will NOT watch the Presidential candidate debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on Monday, September 26th?

Will – 86 percent

Will not – 12 percent

(Don’t know) – 2 percent

(Refused) – No (0) respondents

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Sept. 17 and 22, n = 404 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

Likely – Most important issues for debate

Now I am going to read a list of possible problems facing this country today. Please wait for me to read the entire list, then tell me which ONE of these problems is the MOST important for presidential candidates to address in the debate on September 26th. [ORDER OF PHRASES WAS RANDOMIZED]

Improving economic conditions – 21 percent

Protecting the U.S. from foreign threats – 16 percent

Fighting terrorism – 15 percent

Creating jobs – 11 percent

Promoting education – 8 percent

Immigration – 6 percent

Protecting Social Security – 6 percent

Providing quality health care – 5 percent

Supporting veterans – 3 percent

Federal taxes – 2 percent

Preserving Medicare – 2 percent

(Don’t know) – 5 percent

(Refused) – 2 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Sept, 17 and 22, n = 404 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

Likely voters – Which candidate will win debate?

Which candidate for president do you think will win the September 26th debate, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

Donald Trump – 36 percent

Hillary Clinton – 47 percent

(Both/Tie) – 2 percent

(Neither) – 4 percent

(Don’t know) – 10 percent

(Refuse) – 1 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Sept. 17 and 22, n = 404 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

The High Point University Survey Research Center interviewed 404 state of North Carolina likely voters Sept. 17 through Sept. 22, 2016, using Registration Based Sample (aka Voter List Sample) purchased from Survey Sampling International through Aristotle in Washington, D.C. To be included in the sample, a voter needed to have a propensity score of more than 30 on a scale of 0 to 100 based on their voting history in presidential and midterm elections and demographics. In order to confirm voters’ likelihood of voting, they were asked an additional screening question: “On November 8, North Carolina will hold its election for President, U.S. Senate, Governor, U.S. House of Representatives, and other offices. How certain are you that you will vote in this election? Are you almost certain to vote, you probably will vote, your chances of voting are 50/50, or you will not vote in the November 2016 general election?” Only respondents who indicated they were “almost certain” to vote or “probably” would vote were considered to be likely voters. Of the 419 registered voters interviewed, 404 were determined to be likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016 general election. This research was conducted 100 percent by telephone. Respondents on both cell phones (273 interviews) and landlines (131 interviews) were contacted by live operators at the Survey Research Center, who hand-dialed the telephone and completed the interview. Details from this survey are available at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2016/09/47memoA.pdf.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/. The materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

You can follow the HPU Poll on Twitter at http://twitter.com/HPUSurveyCenter.

Dr. Martin Kifer, associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald serves as the associate director of the HPU Poll.