As of this morning, Trump is still refusing to appear at tonight’s GOP debate on Fox News, and instead will hold his own event in Iowa. Trump tweeted today that other GOP candidates (probably under-card) asked to appear at his event. Whether that’s true or not, it shows that Trump is effectively putting the GOP and the most powerful GOP-aligned television network on notice that he not only thinks he can win without genuflecting to the usual party kingmakers (he often argues he “can’t be bought”), but that he can do so entirely on his own terms, thus maximizing his influence and capacity for spreading chaos. As Trump himself has written, “The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.”

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New Washington Post/ABC News polling out this morning suggests he may be able to maximize that leverage to even greater effect: it finds that a startlingly high percentage of Americans would support the idea of Trump running a third party challenge.

The Post poll finds that 31 percent of Americans would support the notion of Trump running as an independent if he doesn’t win the GOP nomination, versus 64 percent who would oppose it. Even more alarming for the GOP, perhaps, is that nine percent of Americans say they would definitely vote for Trump if he did this, and another 14 percent would consider doing so.

That nine percent is enough to wreak havoc on the general election, and that additional 14 percent might prove very tempting to Trump, given his own oft-stated goal of maximizing his leverage (not to mention his obvious fondness for media attention). While it’s always possible that Trump could win over independents and disaffected Dems in a way that creates problems for the Dem nominee, a Trump third party run would appear most likely to take support away from the GOP nominee. (The WaPo crosstabs show that a large percentage of those who would definitely support or consider supporting him are Republicans.)

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There may be strategic reasons for Trump not to attend tonight’s debate; he may be running out the clock to avoid a mistake in advance of what he thinks is a likely victory in Iowa. But, coming as he continues to maintain strength in the polls, Trump’s decision also can be seen as a sign that he is only ratcheting up his efforts to toy with the GOP. As Brian Beutler puts it:

By withdrawing from the debate, he demonstrated who’s in command and who is not….Trump has become the GOP’s indispensable man. If his rivals, and other Republican Party actors, were uncomfortable with him inside the tent, they are also uncomfortable when he leaves — only much more so.

Thus, one can also see this as a kind of dry run for a possible third party run later. (He may win the nomination outright, of course.) It’s always possible that Trump has finally overplayed his hand — that he’ll lose in Iowa, making his latest stunt look in retrospect more like a display of weakness than of strength. But if Trump does win in Iowa after giving the middle finger to Fox News, how will it look then?

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* VERY TIGHT IN IOWA; SANDERS DOMINATING NEW HAMPSHIRE: The final NBC/Marist polls before the Iowa caucuses show Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders among likely Dem voters by 48-45. Sanders holds a big lead in New Hampshire, 57-38.

In South Carolina, Clinton leads by 64-27 — and by 74-17 among African American voters, a reminder that she holds a big demographic edge in the more diverse contests coming later.

* TRUMP STILL LEADING IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE: The new NBC/Marist polls also find that Donald Trump is well ahead in Iowa, with 32 percent to 25 percent for Ted Cruz and 18 percent for Marco Rubio. Trump’s lead in New Hampshire is even bigger, at 31 percent to 12 percent for Cruz, while Rubio and John Kasich are tied at 11 percent, perhaps suggesting Rubio could come in third or fourth there, which would spell real trouble for him.

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And Trump leads Cruz by 36-20 in South Carolina. Trump very well could win all three states.

* NO SURGE FOR TRUMP OR SANDERS IN IOWA? Nate Cohn crunches the voter registration numbers in Iowa and determines that it is falling short not just of the energized contest of 2008, but the relatively less energized 2012 contest, too:

Most striking is the relatively slow increase in the number of voters registered as Republicans over the last few months. Democratic registration increased at a stronger pace, but nonetheless at a much lower rate than in 2008….Over all, it is hard to interpret the slow registration pace as anything other than reason to doubt a huge turnout.

And so, if Sanders and Trump are expecting a huge surge in new voters to put them over the top, they may be disappointed. It’s the latest reminder that Iowa always surprises.

* BERNIE WHACKS HILLARY ON DEBATES: The Sanders campaign is now challenging Hillary Clinton to three more debates. From Camp Sanders’s statement:

We propose three additional debates. One in March, April and May and none on a Friday, Saturday or holiday weekend. And all of the three Democratic candidates must be invited. If the Clinton campaign will commit to this schedule, we would ask the DNC to arrange a debate in New Hampshire on Feb. 4.

Generally speaking, more debates would be great, especially with higher visibility scheduling, but it’s possible the nomination will mostly be wrapped up by early or mid-March.

* AMERICANS BACK OBAMA’S EXECUTIVE ACTION: A new Reuters poll finds that that 61 percent of Americans support Obama’s executive action granting deportation relief to millions of undocumented immigrants, and that includes 42 percent of Republicans. However:

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But when the same plan was described as being an executive action taken by Obama, support fell to 54 percent overall, with only 31 percent of Republicans supporting it and 62 percent opposing the measures.

Go figure! If the Supreme Court upholds Obama’s action and it receives a ton of national attention, all the GOP presidential candidates will pledge to reverse it on Day One.

* AND EVANGELICALS LOVE THE DONALD: A striking finding from a new Public Religion Research Institute poll:

Since November 2015, white evangelical Protestant voters have become more amiable towards Trump. A majority (53%) of white evangelical Protestant voters express a favorable view of Trump today, up from 37% last November. Currently, only about four in ten (41%) white evangelical Protestant voters express a negative view of Trump, down from 56% in November.