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First, the 2007­–2009 financial crisis and accompanying recession skews the analysis. Real income growth was non-existent between 2005 and 2010. Governments at all level regard this as an aberration and are determined to accelerate income growth. And that has happened: After 2010 real income growth has averaged about 1.1 per cent, which is more like a normal level for Canada.

Second, we have already picked most of the low-hanging fruit. The Ontario coal phase-out cannot be done twice; and considering how brutally costly it was, we wouldn’t want to. Looking ahead, further CO 2 reductions get harder and harder to achieve without costlier and costlier reductions in overall energy usage. So we are unlikely to keep emissions intensity going down by 3.3 per cent. It is more likely we will return to the longer-term average of 2.7 per cent per year.

Thirdly, Canada has indicated it plans to set much higher immigration targets, and boost our rate of population growth. This might mean we start seeing population growth more like 1.5 per cent per year rather than 1.1.

Add these up and emissions will only be falling by 0.1 per cent per year, well below the 1.2 per cent needed. Something’s gotta give.

Here are the main options. The government can back away from its population growth targets, or its income growth targets, or it can try to force emissions intensity down faster. The proposed carbon-pricing system likely won’t be a panacea since most of the big policies introduced in regulatory form (biofuels, fuel efficiency standards, coal phase-out) already had marginal costs far above the proposed carbon price. If income and population growth rates add up to 2.6 per cent per year, emissions intensity has to start falling by 3.8 per cent annually between now and 2030 to meet the Paris target, well above the long-term rate. Since we are facing costlier and costlier abatement options, it is unlikely this can be achieved without painful economic consequences that have consistently led governments around the world to abandon course.