A thousand plagues afflict the Middle East. To the east there are wars, and rumours of more war. To the west it’s much of the same: chaos, fragmentation, and misery that will continue in 2019.

What may be most extraordinary about the arc of troubled lands stretching from northwestern Africa east to the Arabian Peninsula and the Hindu Kush is that the disruptions are no longer confined to hotspots. They have expanded and deepened, and the potential for violence either at the hands of gunmen serving warlords or untouchable elites has only multiplied.