IN THE months since China implemented its once-a-decade leadership transition, American policymakers have been watching closely to see whether changes in personnel might augur any change in Chinese policy toward the United States. As the year of the dragon draws to a close and Barack Obama busies himself trying to replace many of his most senior officials for his second term, it is China’s turn to wonder what his new team means for what is (arguably?) the world’s most important bilateral relationship. Mr Obama’s cabinet reshuffle affects three top positions—the secretary of state, secretary of defence, and secretary of the treasury—whose holders must devote a great deal of their time and attention to China. Compared with their American counterparts, analysts in China have much more to work with as they try to sort the new scene. In contrast to the figures atop China’s black box of a political system, the incoming American officials have left career-long paper trails from their many public speeches, press interviews, congressional testimony and legislative votes. Zhu Chenghu, a general in the People’s Liberation Army, told state-run media that the incoming secretary of state, John Kerry, a former senator and presidential candidate, “will be more moderate” on the issue of China’s dispute with Japan over a set of tiny, uninhabited islands in the East China sea. The islands are called the Senkakus by Japan, and the Diaoyus by China. On February 4th, when Mr Kerry replaced Hillary Clinton as America’s top-ranked diplomat, General Zhu was prompted to remark that the change “represents an opportunity to redirect Washington’s course”.

Wang Dong, the director of the Centre for North-East Asian Strategic Studies at the Beijing University School of International Studies, agrees. “We know Kerry well. He has a reputation for being moderate and thoughtful, not overly forceful or muscular with his language,” Mr Wang says, adding that this marks a contrast with the impression of Mrs Clinton that tends to be held in China. “If Kerry can put more emphasis on co-operation, it will make a big difference.”

But Mrs Clinton’s lack of popularity in China may have as much to do with the content of the message she has borne as with her style in delivering it. Given her position, she needed to take a leading role when the Obama administration launched the policy that became known as America’s “pivot” towards Asia, in 2011. In Beijing this was seen as being an aggressive gesture aimed at containing China’s rise. The policy has since been rebranded as a “rebalancing” of America’s strategic focus.

Mrs Clinton also had to deliver the message that America, while declining to take a position on the “ultimate sovereignty” of the disputed islands, does believe that they are territory “under the administration of Japan”. And that they are therefore covered by a 1960 security treaty with Japan that would require America to “act to meet the common danger” in the event of an armed attack.

That message has since been repeated by another representative of the state department, other top officials, former senior officers, as well as in a bill passed by both houses of Congress—which was especially annoying to senior Chinese military officials.

According to Mr Wang, it is in America’s interest to contain tension between China and Japan. Mr Obama’s new team confront a difficult balancing act. “But it is very difficult for many Chinese analysts and people to believe America is not taking Japan’s side, and the U.S. should be nervous when they see this Chinese perception,” he said.

Another new member of that team is likely to be a former senator, Chuck Hagel, who has been nominated by Mr Obama to replace the outgoing defence secretary, Leon Panetta, but still awaits final approval by the Senate. Republicans in opposition may manage to delay Mr Hagel’s confirmation, but they are not likely to succeed in blocking his appointment.

Mr Hagel has already won praise from several Chinese analysts for his “cautious” attitude towards the use of military force and also for his “practical and moderate style”. In a recent interview, Mr Hagel said America should welcome China’s emergence as a world power, despite its “communist, authoritarian, opaque government”.

“They are a great power today, and they going to continue to be a great power—and that's okay. But we shouldn't cower in the wake of that, or we shouldn't be concerned that they're going to take our place in the world,” he said.

Jack Lew has been nominated by Mr Obama to replace the outgoing treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, and he too awaits confirmation by the senate. Once in office, he will find himself at the centre of one of the most contentious issues dividing China and America: the value of China’s currency, and the question of whether China is contriving to keep it artificially low in order to boost export volumes.

Mr Lew has attracted less attention than Mr Obama’s other new cabinet nominees, and is not well known to Chinese analysts. They will nonetheless be far happier to see him take the job than anyone who might have been appointed by a President Mitt Romney.

Mr Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, once accused Mr Obama of allowing China to treat him “like a doormat” and Mr Romney himself routinely promised to declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. The real decisions, so far as China is concerned about America’s foreign and economic policy, happened in November 2012.

(Picture credit: AFP)