Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — November 9th, 2017

In this weekly segment, I apply numbers to context in an effort to uncover plausible trajectories in the wild world of fantasy football. Last week’s segment had me covering the Saints’ offense, Jay Ajayi, the Jimmy Garoppolo trade, Vernon Davis and Josh McCown. Welcome to Trends and Takeaways Week 10. Cheers!

Get Marvin Jones a side of fries!

The M stands for Marvin (via Ka Ho Fu Yuen, wikimedia commons)

Because he is EATING! After touting Kenny Golladay for weeks, it appears a lasting hamstring injury will prevent him from reaching relevancy this season. In the past 3 games, Marvin Jones has averaged 12 targets, 110 yards, and a single touchdown. And it gets better! In those 3 games, two of them were against teams that have been stingy surrendering fantasy points to opposing wideouts (Saints, Steelers). While the recent breakout has corresponded with increased volume (surprise, surprise), Jones’ efficiency and high leverage usage give reason for hope. Thanks to Golladay’s injury and Eric Ebron’s incompetence, the Lions’ wideout has an astonishing 47.6% end zone target share, good for 4th in the league. Despite being 21st in overall targets, Jones is 16th in receiving yards, averaging 15.6 yards per reception. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this before: Marvin riling up the imagination of Fantasy footballers only to dash their hopes. Even more unfortunately, despite his recent surge, Jones’ stats largely fall in line with the previous season’s production.

Catch Rate 2016: 52.6% — Catch Rate 2017: 53.2%

Team pass plays per game 2016: 39 — Team pass plays per game 2017: 41

Receiving YPG 2016: 62 — Receiving YPG 2017: 64.4

Receptions per game 2016: 3.7 — Receptions per game 2017: 4.1

While there has been a modest uptick in most facets, it’s hard to bank on a long term ascension. Much of Jones’ upcoming schedule is not particularly friendly for the pass, and when we take a larger sample size than the past 3 games into account, regression to the norm appears to be a given. If you have him, start Marvin against a weak Cleveland unit, but I’d consider packaging him in a trade for somebody with a more convincing slice of their offense’s proverbial pie.

Buy low on Mike Evans.

It can’t get much worse for the Bucs. They’ve been, like, really bad. Mike Evans hasn’t, however. Some might be scared off by Jameis Winston’s shoulder injury, but there’s not many backup QBs more experienced or competent than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tampa Bay is 6th in the league in pass plays per game, meaning there is volume to go around. Additionally, their defense couldn’t fight its way out of a wet paper bag, forcing the Bucs to attack through the air. Evans is 7th in targets and 11th in both red zone and end zone target share. While the Bucs’ star wideout has yet to reach 100 yards in a game this season, he’s still managed to score 4 touchdowns and averages a very solid 67 receiving yards on 5 receptions per game. With his one game suspension being upheld and Tampa in an apparent tailspin, Evans is a fantasy football WR1 who may be poachable from a struggling owner at a discounted price.

Kareem Hunt sinking ship?

Time to secure your life boat? (via Max Pixel)

Last week, Hunt played a career low 54% of offensive snaps. Over the past 3 games, the rookie sensation has averaged under 3.5 yards per carry. Of the 3 teams played in that period, only Denver ranks in the top 15 of least fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. He also hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 4. So, what’s the deal? The deal is that expectations were simply too high following his early season explosion. Kareem Hunt is good — really good. But he’s not David Johnson. He’s not Todd Gurley. He’s not Le’Veon Bell. Yes, I realize he’s outscored Bell in fantasy so far this year. Additionally, it’s fair to question his ability to maintain efficiency in a 16 game NFL season without wearing down. However, Hunt is still elite at his position. The ship is not sinking. He’s 5th in rushing attempts, 1st in rushing yards, 1st in avoided tackles, 1st in yards created, and 1st in breakaway runs. These things don’t happen by mistake. That said, weeks 4–7 are more likely to be a representation of his game to game yardage production than weeks 1–3.

Stream tight ends if you don’t have one of these 5.

Does your TE win potato sack races?

Their names are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski, Evan Engram and Jimmy Graham. Also accepting arguments for Jack Doyle, who is somehow averaging 8 targets per game. Although I personally don’t like banking on players that I can beat in a foot race.

The position simply doesn’t score that many points, experiencing significant volatility from week to week. Jared Cook is TE #7 in PPR leagues, yet has 3 games with 3 or less catches. Cameron Brate, TE #6, has to grapple with O.J. Howard for usage. Jason Witten, TE #9, has 3 games (three!!) with single digit receiving yardage. The difference between Witten and the TE #15, Austin Hooper, is 12 total points. Through their 8 games played, that amounts to an additional 1.5 points per game. For comparison, the difference between the #3 TE (Rob Gronkowski) and #10 TE (Delanie Walker) is roughly 2.8 points per game. The majority of tight ends are more comparable in value to kickers as opposed to wide receivers and running backs. That is, out of the few elite players at the position, you’re better off playing matchups than tossing out a weekly starter.

After Quincy Enunwa went down, the Jets’ receiving corps was officially a pile of WTF. A few dreamers out there had hope, however, in the form of undrafted wideout, Robby Anderson. Let’s face it, this isn’t going to be a passage about Robby Anderson, “the savior”, or “league winner, Robby Anderson”. Rather, what we have here is a legitimate boom or bust bye-week and spot-start fill in. And that’s fine. Every roster needs guys like that to ride the bench, who can jump in as your flex or WR2 in a tight spot. What you may not know is that the Jets’ wideout is the WR #21 in PPR and the WR #16 in standard. In PPR, he ranks ahead of Keenan Allen, Demaryius Thomas, and Kelvin Benjamin. In standard, he ranks above Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Michael Thomas. Not accounting for bye weeks, that’s impressive for an unheralded, undrafted receiver in an offense that was announced DOA to open the season.

Some other details about Robby Anderson:

He’s 6’3” and has 4.4 wheels. As of now, his stats over 16 games would translate into approximately 860 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. Thanks to his size and field-stretching ability, Anderson’s end zone target share ranks 5th in the NFL with 9 total. The Temple product is a legitimate NFL player in this league and should be owned in all formats. Think of him in the Desean Jackson, Will Fuller, Travis Benjamin mold with a larger body — a receiver who won’t see a ton of volume, but attracts high-leverage downfield targets..

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