2 Shares Share Tweet Share Share Email

Shea Weber may just be the most polarizing player in hockey.

A frequent Norris Trophy nominee, the Nashville Predators’ captain and star blue liner is widely commended as one of the best defensemen in the league by executives, coaches, media and fans. But data analysts point to his shot attempt numbers — subpar relative to other top players at the position — as reason to argue against those claims.

This debate stems from two distinct ways of evaluating players: one based on tools and one determined by results. Take a look at this classic clip from the movie Moneyball as a prime example.

“If he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good,” is essentially the quantitative argument against Weber. If the guy is an elite defender, why is he only 43rd out of 176 defenseman in percentage of total on-ice goals among defenders who’ve played at least 4000 5-on-5 minutes over the past eight years?

Why have his defensive teammates in recent years outperformed him in both these and shot attempt metrics? That’s the question we still don’t really have an answer for when it comes to Weber, especially since we know that zone start and quality of competition effects are vastly overstated over the course of a season, let alone a career.

Is there another way to explain this?

Let’s first take a look at some in-depth metrics for Weber first when he was playing the majority of his minutes with Ryan Suter and then once Suter moved on and he was paired primarily with Roman Josi.

What we see here is that in the first part of his career, Weber was one of the better defensemen in the league in terms of shot and, especially, relative shot metrics. He was playing on a team without much defensive depth and managed to limit shot attempts against fairly well.

Once Suter left for wilder pastures, Weber’s shot attempts for per 60 stayed stagnant, but his shot attempts against per 60 spiked massively. On a team that has recently developed talented two-way defensemen like Matthias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis, the since-departed Seth Jones, not to mention Josi himself, it’s certainly an open question whether Weber is still the best defenseman, or even second best, on his own team.

As I think back to that Moneyball clip, though, I wonder about defense. Weber is constantly lauded for his defensive prowess; scouts love his active stick, his strong positioning, his defensive instincts. None of that is directly quantified in any of the aforementioned numbers. So how about Weber’s ability to prevent the shots that are most dangerous, to do the things that hockey people seem to commend him so emphatically for?

Over the last four years, Weber is 12th out of 190 in allowing the fewest high danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes. He seems to be able to defend the danger areas as well as advertised. If you add HDSC for and against (HDSCP/60 above), though, it’s clear that Weber’s on-ice unit has had equally as much trouble generating chances. To investigate why this might be, I took a look at Weber’s zone entry numbers from back in 2013-2014 courtesy of Corey Sznajder (you can get that data here) compared to his teammates.

On Saturday, February 13th, following the Panthers Analytics Workshop, I watched the Florida Panthers face the Nashville Predators and noted a number of positive defensive plays from Weber that backed up his reputation. Take a look at a couple.

Weber’s gap control and positioning are superb, but his stickwork is what truly stands out. He almost seems to intimidate Nick Bjugstad into attempting a poor shot in the latter play. He doesn’t panic, holds his ground, and gets the puck.

The less promising similarity between the two plays is Weber’s inability to control the puck after poking it away, especially in the second instance. Chances are, whacking the puck out of the zone just means it’s coming right back in. That will lead to few shot attempts or chances for, and low event hockey overall. Now Weber’s low ranking in CF/60 and combined on-ice high danger chances per 60 makes some sense.

Weber’s possession percentage on zone exits in 2013-14 ranked last on his team, and with an improved defense corps today I doubt we’d see any different.

So my sense is that by the way in which they evaluate talent, scouts aren’t necessarily wrong about Weber. Defensively, he appears to be one of the best defensemen in the NHL.

He uses his abilities to prevent easy entries, and to keep shots to the outside. The problem is that offense and defense are more of a fluid process than some hockey people would like to believe. If a player can’t turn defensive acumen into offensive opportunities for his teammates, then on aggregate, the results won’t be good.

So as of now, as a total package, Weber is lacking.

But does that mean he has to be? I believe we may be asking the wrong question when it comes to Weber. It’s not a matter of “if he has such mediocre results why do people think he’s so good?” but rather “if he has such great tools, what can he change or improve to produce elite results?”

Weber has the ability to exit the zone with control. Even if he’s not the fastest skater, he has the size to protect the puck and the instincts to put it in the right spot. It’s understandable that a player with such a pristine defensive reputation would want to avoid turnovers, but if he took a few more risks and avoided needless chip-outs — at least when not in lead protection mode — maybe the Predators could become an even better team with him on the ice. Sitting dangerous close to missing the playoffs, it’s worth a shot.