Bachelorette for Nerds

Week 1

The Bachelor/Bachelorette TV series is a captivating member of pop culture that I am now happy to be a part of. While many fans of the show have their blogs and analyses, I figured I would join this environment by writing a weekly blog while adding my own flavor to my analysis.

Coming from a background in mechanical engineering and sports analytics, I am a proud nerd who seeks joy in numbers. I have worked with many forms of analytics in my education and leisure; I have even attempted to create my own statistic in the sports realm. However, what I have been working on is a bit more socially relevant: combining analytics with a high-profile “reality” game show.

What is BSR?

A few months ago, I created a statistic called the Bachelor Success Rating (BSR) to determine the success of contestants on The Bachelor. Without having any prior detailed knowledge of the show, I assigned values to the contestants based on various subjective attributes. Some of these values remained static for the season while others were adjusted; this was due to more exposure and information being released during the show. These values are plugged into a formula that produced BSR. A contestant’s BSR is a normalized quantity that is based on the performance of other contestants. The statistic is centered at zero, which means that a more positive number yields a higher chance to stay and a more negative number yields a lower chance to stay.

How Successful is BSR?

While I began watching since the first episode, I created BSR during the third week of The Bachelor last season. From that week on, I adjusted the statistic with hopes of optimizing it as a reliable piece of analytics. For the majority of the season, this served as a fundamental component to my decision-making process when determining who would stay and who would be sent home each week. For weeks four through seven (until the final four), my model correctly predicted who would leave 73% of the time for each week. The highlight was week six, when the model predicted all five contestants who left The Bachelor that week.

The challenge for me this season is to determine the key attributes for BSR as it shifts from The Bachelor to The Bachelorette. I am assuming that men and women act differently and thus require different factors to more accurately calculate their BSR.

BSR Performance This Week

Unfortunately, not many predictions can be made about the early episodes. This is because there are so many contestants that I cannot assign appropriate values to each attribute for each contestant. It will likely take another one or two weeks for the model to actually perform with a good degree of accuracy. In the meantime, I am focused on solidifying the contestants’ static attributes — such as physical attractiveness. I am thankful to have female friends who have helped me determine these values, as that is something I am not particularly gifted at noticing or quantifying. But other dynamic attributes — such as personality — are too difficult to analyze in a small amount of time.

BSR for all contestants in Week 1. Note that these values change when contestants are removed, so Week 2 values are different from the values shown above.

With that said, preliminary estimates were decent. Ryan, Thomas, and Scott were all positioned to leave according to the model, with the latter causing quite the stir for a first episode (huge points awarded to Hannah B. for exposing him and kicking him off as immediate as she did). Joe and Chasen were on the radar for leaving with Brian and Hunter also in the mix. The biggest shock was Matt Donald being sent home. He was a Top-4 contestant this week according to his BSR (Note: this does not mean that I had him to make it to the final four, but rather that he is fairly safe to stay for a couple more weeks). He had the looks, charisma, and humility of a long-term contestant, but I guess sometimes love can outdo numbers.

Predictions for Next Week(s)

There are a few contestants who I believe are in trouble for next week barring anything crazy from happening (lol): Joey (-0.77), Dustin (-0.66), and Tyler G. (-0.65). They are all above the -1.00 line, so these three are not necessarily goners. They will, however, need to prove themselves worthy soon or else they will have a slim chance of recovery. The three safe bets for the next few episodes are Luke P. (0.96), Peter (0.87), and Connor S. (0.75). Luke P. has the wild-card factor that will keep him around at least for viewership, and Connor S. seems to be a great guy who certainly made a good impression on Hannah B. (even if he did not receive the first-impression rose). On the other hand, Peter is attractive, has a great personality, and a bit of spontaneity (he will go to New Orleans to get crayfish via his plane, which is pretty dope). Those three traits make Peter my current pick to go to the end.