So, what’s changed to bring about such a dramatic rethink by VicPol and a high profile probe that could tip the result of an increasingly tight election in just three months time? The answer should be that, since 2016, VicPol has uncovered important new evidence allowing them to prove beyond reasonable doubt, criminal behaviour. Loading There is no doubt the chief commissioner was under significant political pressure from both sides, and from the media. No matter what his decision was, the political pressure would only ramp up. So he needed strong grounds. However, this week in discussions with The Age, a number of senior figures in government, the legal community and VicPol itself, were not so sure there were any. “Politics,” said one informer simply. “Arse covering” said another informed insider.

Ashton's dilemma put him in a position similar to that facing former FBI chief James Comey before he re-launched an investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails less than two weeks out from the 2016 US presidential election that delivered President Donald Trump to the world. It was impossible to simultaneously please both sides of politics. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video The time sheets, again "Red shirts" is one catchphrases for a scheme cooked up by Labor before the 2014 state election through which it recruited and funded campaigning in marginal seats.

While Labor hired the recruits as part of its Obama-styled Community Action Network, they were paid out of the public purse as electorate officers for Labor MPs. The Ombudsman found that through their involvement MPs - six sitting ministers in the Andrews government included - breached Parliament's members' guide and was a misuse of public funds. Labor has since paid back $388,000 to the department of parliamentary services. What we know from some of those arrested on Thursday morning is that police questioning focused on details around timesheets signed by MPs as part of the payment process. Daniel Andrews in Parliament. Credit:Justin McManus

Police seem to think those who signed blank timesheets - MPs, including ministers, as well as the young red shirts - may have engaged in fraud. But the timesheets are nothing new. VicPol had them when they first assessed the red shirts saga in 2015-2016, as did the Ombudsman. After delays, including government legal challenges to her jurisdiction on the matter, Ms Glass tabled her findings in March. In her report Glass acknowledges gaps in her investigation, in particular the problem that a lack of cooperation from lower house MPs, including Premier Daniel Andrews. It is clear from her report and from her testimony before the committee, Ms Glass did not view the red shirts affair as a criminal matter.

Nonetheless, Ms Glass, in evidence to the upper house privileges committee on July 18, said that the evidence gathered from police, social media, interviews with upper house MPs and field officers, was “enough’’ to understand the scheme, complete an investigation and report on it. Despite gathering 90,000 pages of investigative material, the Ombudsman’s core evidence was the timesheets. Among her recommendations are amendments to the MPs' Members’ Guide, and training in how to follow it. She did not find evidence of criminality nor did she call for further investigation, and gave the MPs the benefit of the doubt that they had not intended deception. In her evidence to the upper house, Ms Glass stressed the Ombudsman and VicPol chief commissioner had different standards of proof: “I need to be satisfied on the balance of probabilities, while a criminal case is required to satisfy beyond reasonable doubt,” she said. Ombusman Deborah Glass Credit:Simon Schluter

“This allows me to conclude that an action is wrong without necessarily breaching the threshold of criminal action.’’ It is clear from her report and from her testimony before the committee, Ms Glass did not view the red shirts affair as a criminal matter. Ashton would have been aware of this. The chief commissioner was also questioned by the privileges committee where he confirmed that on 13 June, three months after Ms Glass tabled her report, he decided to reassess the red shirts scam. The specific trigger for that decision was a letter the same day from Ed O’Donohue, the opposition police spokesman. The letter included no new evidence but says “it is clear that the Ombudsman’s Report does provide evidence worthy of a new investigation by Victoria Police’’. The problem is, the Ombudsman did not think so.

Mr Ashton told the committee that he had written - and met with - Ms Glass to ask whether she had uncovered any evidence that might warrant a further police investigation. The answer was no. While the Ombudsman had interviewed many more people and gathered much more information than the police, Mr Ashton confirmed Ms Glass had replied that “the core evidence remained the same’’ - the timesheets. The nature of the police questions to those arrested this week suggest that is still the case. Taking on board the evidence Chief Commissioner Graham Ashton. Credit:Jason South

Mr Ashton told the committee that after the tabling of the Ombudsman’s report he felt “unable to just put it (the red shirts row) to bed’’. He said as part of VicPol’s reassessment - before a decision to investigate or not - he would be “taking on board’’ the evidence gathered by the Ombudsman. “I still really do not know myself what sort of material the Ombudsman actually has in her investigative side of things.’’ Both VicPol and the Ombudsman refused to comment on whether the police have actually obtained or assessed the latter’s mountain of investigative evidence. But the careful wording of a police media statement on Thursday indicates they have not. The pressure to act must have been intense on VicPol. The Coalition has been relentless in its campaigning around red shirts, dovetailing it with its law and order push. Had the police not reopened the investigation, the Coalition would have raised hell alleging a cosy relationship between the government and police. Mr Ashton helped fuel such allegations by appointing Premier Andrews former chief of staff Brett Curran, as his own chief of staff.

But by re-opening the investigation, apparently based on material it dismissed two years ago, and against the advice of the Ombudsman, VicPol has bought itself into a massive political controversy The heavy-handedness of dawn raids and arrests, strip searches of young Labor activist only adds to mounting furore. It has soured government-police relations badly. The ALP has briefed lawyers. Labor people already believe some senior police would prefer a Coalition government and are hostile to both Labor and the unions. Assistant commissioner Stephen Fontana’s ham-fisted pursuit of the construction union during the Abbott government’s royal commission often cited as an example. One theory doing the rounds in Spring St and surrounds is this: Having made the decision to investigate, VicPol is trying to wrap the investigation up before the election. That way it can say to the Coalition, "Look, we’ve acted firmly", while appeasing the government by saying, "We finished it before polling day’’.

But if VicPol is serious and and believes it has strong evidence after all, it will surely have in its sights those who engineered the scheme and signed the timesheets that seem to remain at the core of the police case. Those people are past and present MPs, including ministers. And if MPs were treated the same way young campaigners were on Thursday morning or if VicPol were to charge MPs with defrauding taxpayers just short of an election, this is not going to end well. Do you know more? Contact us securely via Journotips