The Toronto Blue Jays are facing a possible future without the two sluggers who have anchored their long-ball-driven offence since at least 2010. If one or both of first baseman Edwin Encarnacion or right fielder Jose Bautista signs with another team in free agency, they would leave huge holes in Toronto's offence.

Team president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have already taken steps to occupy vacant spots in the batting order by signing designated hitter Kendrys Morales – but that doesn't mean their job is done (although he remains a free agent, outfielder Michael Saunders is also expected to sign elsewhere: another hole to fill).

The Globe and Mail has analyzed the relevant options on the free agent market in an effort to identify run-producers who might offer the best value. We acknowledge that offensive output is just one of several factors the Blue Jays' front office must consider when deciding how to configure their lineup, but this narrow view still yields some interesting insights. Namely: How best to replace 51 Runs Above Replacement (Jose + EE) in 2017, without surrendering anything on the trade market (though certain free-agent signings would require the Jays to give up a draft pick).



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We relied on three variables in our analysis:

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), a stat used to determine a player’s offensive output regardless of league or ballpark;

a player’s projected market value for the 2017 season: either the market value for one year as determined by Spotrac, or the average salary over the length of the player’s previous contract in cases where Spotrac made no projection;

Volatility (VOL), which seeks to quantify the consistency of a player’s performance during the season. Low-volatility run-producers can be counted on to deliver on a daily basis, the perfect counterbalance to the streaky hitters in the Toronto lineup (such as Russell Martin or Kevin Pillar).

Our list of options includes free-agent non-pitchers who played a minimum of 100 games in 2016, and could fill a position of need should the Jays lose Encarnacion and/or Bautista. This restricts the group to first basemen, outfielders and designated hitters. For comparison, Encarnacion and Bautista are also on the list. Here are all the players, plotted on a scatterplot graph (salary vs. wRC+), with circles weighted by VOL.

Plotting possible free-agent replacements for Jose and Edwin The scatterplot below (hover or tap to reveal player details) charts MLB free agents’ expected market value (or 2016 salary, in cases where Spotrac didn't calculate a value) against their run production in 2016. Better consistency is indicated by a smaller marker, per Bill Petti's VOL metric. Removing defensive considerations, if the Jays are looking to buy runs to replace Encarnacion and Bautista, these are the players they’ll be looking at. (Two of them are already off the market: Kendrys Morales signed with Toronto, and Josh Reddick signed with Houston.)

The bottom area of the chart represents the not-especially-productive options, which grow more expensive as you move to the right. Ryan Howard, a former NL MVP likely to command a high price, fits the bill, as does Colby Rasmus with his unquestionable talent and defensive excellence, but high offensive volatility.

The bottom-left area of the chart indicates players who don't cost much, but who don't offer much on the offensive side of the diamond. It's where you'll find the likes of Peter Bourjos, Ryan Raburn and Nolan Reimold, and you'll know the Jays have struck out in free agency if they end up signing any of these players.

By filtering the list a little we can see who are the real run producers of the group.

Players with a high wRC+ 140 130 Matt Joyce Yoenis Cespedes 120 Mark Trumbo 110 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Players with a high wRC+ 140 Yoenis Cespedes 130 Matt Joyce 120 110 Mark Trumbo 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Players with a high wRC+ 140 130 Matt Joyce Yoenis Cespedes 120 Mark Trumbo 110 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Players with a high wRC+ 140 Yoenis Cespedes 130 Matt Joyce 120 Mark Trumbo 110 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M

Free agents with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (that is, 20% more productive than a league average player): Matt Joyce, Dexter Fowler, Mark Trumbo, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Carlos Beltran, Yoenis Cespedes.

Let's explore three of these players in greater detail, with an eye on their power numbers (because Rogers Centre).

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Yoenis Cespedes LF 31 years old Bats right .272/.325/.494 Encarnacion 2016 home runs 31 Cespedes Bautista Encarnacion Yoenis Cespedes LF 31 years old Bats right .272/.325/.494 31 2016 home runs Cespedes Bautista Encarnacion Yoenis Cespedes LF 31 years old Bats right .272/.325/.494 2016 home runs 31 Cespedes Bautista Yoenis Cespedes LF 31 years old Bats right .272/.325/.494 Encarnacion 31 2016 home runs Cespedes Bautista

If money were no object, it's clear who the Jays would pursue once their superstars decided to move on. Yoenis Cespedes has established himself as an all-star outfielder in both leagues, displaying the kind of power that would make him an instant hit (get it?) at Rogers Centre. He was in line for a $23.75-million salary with the New York Mets in 2017, but exercised his right to opt out of the rest of his deal. He's hoping to sign for a term that's longer than the two years that were left on his last contract – and he'll likely get it, at a pricetag the Jays probably can't afford.

Matt Joyce OF 32 years old Bats left .242/.403/.463 2016 home runs 13 Joyce Matt Joyce OF 32 years old Bats left .242/.403/.463 2016 home runs 13 Joyce Matt Joyce OF 32 years old Bats left .242/.403/.463 2016 home runs 13 Joyce Matt Joyce OF 32 years old Bats left .242/.403/.463 2016 home runs 13 Joyce

He's not necessarily an everyday player any more, and his numbers don't pop out at you unless you pay attention to advanced stats, but Matt Joyce is an intriguing option on the market. The 2011 AL all-star was a bust after he was traded to Anaheim, but rebuilt his career last season with Pittsburgh as a sort of utility outfielder. His career slashline against right-handers is a very attractive .252/.353/.449, including a .406 OBP in his bounce-back 2016 season. Joyce is in line for a raise, but nothing outrageous. He could be a great fit if the Jays decide they need a left-handed hitter to serve in an outfield platoon with, say, Melvin Upton, Jr.

Mark Trumbo OF 30 years old Bats right .251/.303/.473 47 Trumbo 2016 home runs Trumbo 47 Mark Trumbo OF 30 years old Bats right .251/.303/.473 2016 home runs 47 Mark Trumbo OF 30 years old Bats right .251/.303/.473 Trumbo 2016 home runs 47 Trumbo Mark Trumbo OF 30 years old Bats right .251/.303/.473 2016 home runs

Rogers Centre is a comfortable home for power hitters, and if his 47-home-run campaign with Baltimore last year is any indication, Mark Trumbo is clearly able to handle AL East pitchers. But aside from those eye-popping longball numbers, it's hard to see what he would bring to the Blue Jays. He bats right (like most Jays), normally plays designated hitter (the preferred slot for Morales), and doesn't walk much. He's also likely to command a hefty salary with those HR totals. The Jays can do better.

Filtering the list in a different way highlights the less volatile members of the group.

Less volatile players 140 Dexter Fowler 130 Mike Napoli 120 110 Ian Desmond 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Less volatile players 140 Dexter Fowler 130 Mike Napoli 120 110 Ian Desmond 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Less volatile players 140 Dexter Fowler 130 Mike Napoli 120 110 Ian Desmond 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Less volatile players 140 Dexter Fowler 130 Mike Napoli 120 110 Ian Desmond 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M

Free agents with a VOL below .650 (that is, less variation in their performance from game to game): Dexter Fowler, Jose Bautista, Angel Pagan, Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Beltran, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Mike Napoli, Ian Desmond.

Consistency is the goal here: a player who can contribute to the team's offence on a predictable basis, series by series. Let's look at a few low-volatility options, and check their potential based on whether they tend to stay healthy over a 162-game season.

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Dexter Fowler OF 30 years old Bats both .276/.393/.447 Games played 162 games 125 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 2016 Games played 162 games Dexter Fowler OF 30 years old Bats both .276/.393/.447 125 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Games played 162 games Dexter Fowler OF 30 years old Bats both .276/.393/.447 125 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 2016 Games played 162 games Dexter Fowler OF 30 years old Bats both .276/.393/.447 125 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dexter Fowler's combination of speed, pop, ability to get on base and ability to hit from both sides of the plate make him a prime target for a number of teams. He'll command a handsome, multi-year contract, though likely not at the level of Cespedes. Fowler, however, is more consistent and tends to stay healthier. He's never made fewer than 492 plate appearances in a season. He'd provide a different look for the Jays' offence – speed over power – but his dependability could be just what Atkins and Shapiro are looking for.

Mike Napoli 1B 35 years old Bats right .239/.335/.465 Games played 162 games 150 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 2016 Games played 162 games Mike Napoli 1B 35 years old Bats right .239/.335/.465 150 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Games played 162 games Mike Napoli 1B 35 years old Bats right .239/.335/.465 150 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 2016 Games played 162 games Mike Napoli 1B 35 years old Bats right .239/.335/.465 150 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Players on the wrong side of 35 (and not named David Ortiz) tend to decline as run producers until they're ready to retire. Mike Napoli bucked that trend in 2016 and drove in 101 runs with 34 homers, both career highs. He produced consistently enough to make this low-volatility list and helped lead his team to the World Series. And yet, Cleveland decided not to make him a qualifying offer. He only missed 12 games in 2016, but there's a lot of mileage on those 35-year-old legs, including 511 career games at catcher. Don't be fooled by his 2016 consistency: Napoli isn't a good enough fielder to find a spot in the Jays' lineup, and his body is about to break down.

Ian Desmond OF 31 years old Bats right .285/.335/.446 Games played 162 games 156 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 2016 Games played 162 games Ian Desmond OF 31 years old Bats right .285/.335/.446 156 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Games played 162 games Ian Desmond OF 31 years old Bats right .285/.335/.446 156 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 2016 Games played 162 games Ian Desmond OF 31 years old Bats right .285/.335/.446 156 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Much like Michael Saunders in the Blue Jays' outfield last year, Ian Desmond played at an all-star level in the first half of the season before a long swoon into October. The cons against him are notable: He's a converted shortstop who hasn't mastered playing the outfield, he was qualified by his former team so would cost the Jays a draft pick if they signed him, and he strikes out a little too much. But he was also good for 3.3 wins above replacement for Texas in 2016, can add a speed dimension to the offence (518 career stolen bases), and has missed more than eight games due to injury in a season only once. If the price is right, Desmond is worth a long look.

Our final consideration is performance against opposite-handed pitchers.



Players who succeed against opposite- handed pitching 140 Carlos Beltran 130 Pedro Alvarez 120 Brandon Moss 110 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Players who succeed against opposite-handed pitching 140 Carlos Beltran 130 120 Pedro Alvarez 110 Brandon Moss 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Players who succeed against opposite-handed pitching 140 Carlos Beltran 130 Pedro Alvarez 120 110 Brandon Moss 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M Players who succeed against opposite-handed pitching 140 Carlos Beltran 130 120 Pedro Alvarez 110 Ian Desmond Brandon Moss 100 90 Less volatile 80 More volatile 70 wRC+ Market value, in U.S. dollars 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30M

Free agents whose wRC+ vs. opposite-handed pitchers is above 110: Matt Joyce, Carlos Beltran, Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Pedro Alvarez, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Angel Pagan, Ian Desmond.

It's no secret the Jays fielded a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters in 2016, but the real issue was how bad those righties were against southpaw pitchers (18th in the majors in wOBA at .323), and how bad the few left-handed hitters were against righties (29th at .295). So, how does this crop of free agents stack up against opposite-handed pitchers? That's the kind of balance that's needed in the lineup.



Carlos Beltran OF 39 years old Bats both .295/.337/.513 League average Blue Jays average Batting left versus right- handed pitchers Beltran Batting right versus left- handed pitchers Blue Jays average League average Carlos Beltran OF 39 years old Bats both .295/.337/.513 Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Beltran Batting right versus left-handed pitchers League average Blue Jays average Batting left versus right- handed pitchers Carlos Beltran OF 39 years old Bats both .295/.337/.513 Beltran Batting right versus left- handed pitchers Blue Jays average League average Carlos Beltran OF 39 years old Bats both .295/.337/.513 Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Beltran Batting right versus left-handed pitchers

A switch-hitter who prefers to hit from the left but can produce against both types of pitchers, Carlos Beltran will turn 40 shortly after the season begins but can still play. His fWAR of 2.3 in 2016 put him 8th among all available free agent hitters this winter. He's a veteran presence on his way to the Hall of Fame, and he'll be seeking a modest multi-year contract.

Pedro Alvarez DH 29 years old Bats left .249/.322/.504 Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Alvarez Pedro Alvarez DH 29 years old Bats left .249/.322/.504 Alvarez Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Pedro Alvarez DH 29 years old Bats left .249/.322/.504 Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Alvarez Pedro Alvarez DH 29 years old Bats left .249/.322/.504 Alvarez Batting left versus right-handed pitchers

Left-handed hitter Pedro Alvarez is a designated hitter who hits righties at a rate of .251/.326/.522. Kendrys Morales, whom the Jays signed on Nov. 11, is a switch-hitting DH who hits lefties at a rate of .330/.369/.560. The Jays have already invested $11-million a year in Morales, but if Alvarez can be had cheaply (say, near the end of the free agency period), what a wonderful DH platoon these two would make.

Brandon Moss 1B/OF 33 years old Bats left .225/.300/.484 Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Moss Brandon Moss 1B/OF 33 years old Bats left .225/.300/.484 Moss Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Brandon Moss 1B/OF 33 years old Bats left .225/.300/.484 Batting left versus right-handed pitchers Moss Brandon Moss 1B/OF 33 years old Bats left .225/.300/.484 Moss Batting left versus right-handed pitchers

Because the Blue Jays are always interested in acquiring players with plus power, Brandon Moss (28 homers in 2016) is on this list. He's 33 but can still log innings at first base or the outfield, and best of all he mashes righties from the left side of the plate (119 career HRs in that situation). Looks like a good fit as a platoon partner with Upton, if the price is right.

The final decision for the Jays' front office will depend on a whole variety of factors: Do Encarnacion and Bautista both leave, or just one? Will a free-agent signing come at the cost of a draft pick? Are there better options available via trade? What are the defensive capabilities of a potential newcomer? How would he fit in the dressing room, and does his off-field behaviour pose any problems for the marketing department? But from a run-producing standpoint, there appear to be three options that offer the best bang for the Blue Jays' buck, depending on need: Matt Joyce as a pure run-producer on the cheap, Dexter Fowler for consistent performance at a high level, or an inexpensive veteran who can serve as part of a platoon.

Data sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Spotrac, Bill Petti.