First, the good news. When the Perseids peak on Thursday night into Friday morning, they could be raining down from the heavens at a rate of 150 to 200 per hour. That is nearly double what an average Perseid meteor shower typically delivers.

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To be clear, it doesn’t mean that everyone will see that many meteors. Nor are astronomers totally sure that is what’s in store. It is simply a forecast, and — as I am keenly aware — sometimes forecasts don’t pan out the way you want them to.

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But the great thing about the Perseids is that it’s such a reliable meteor shower. Even during an average year the meteors are numerous, and they also happen to be brighter than other showers, which increases your chance of seeing them.

Now for the bad news.

“When [astronomers] quote a number, that assumes you are in a place that has very little light pollution, and that’s now almost impossible to find on the East Coast.” said John Barentine, the program manager at the International Dark Sky Association.

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He said only in the darkest regions of the country will you see as many as what’s being estimated. The rest of us near urban or suburban areas need to temper our expectations a little. “You’re going to see the brightest and it will only be a handful a few per hour — maybe 10,” Barentine predicted. “That’s a ballpark estimate.”

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Armed with this information — and appropriately modest expectations — let’s find the best places in or near the D.C. region to maximize your viewing party. (Weather permitting, of course.)

If you hate all of my suggestions, pick your own! Scroll to the bottom of this post to see a light pollution map of the D.C. region.

Loudoun, Fauquier, Charles or St. Mary’s counties

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Driving distance: 50-60 miles (about one hour)

Meteor viewing quality: Decent

This is by far the easiest option, short of just walking outside and looking up. Light pollution in western Loudoun and most of Fauquier counties tapers off quite a bit. Depending on where you’re located, Charles or St. Mary’s counties might be an easier trip.

Using satellite data, scientists published a brand new sky-brightness atlas earlier this summer. They measure sky brightness in a ratio — how bright is the sky compared to “natural” sky?

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The brightness ratio in these counties is around one — meaning the sky is 100 percent brighter than a natural sky. This might seem like a lot, but the scale goes up to 41, and urban areas like the District are in that category.

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Ocean City area

Driving distance: 150 miles (three hours)

Meteor viewing quality: Good

The Ocean City area is a good option if you happen to leave on the Eastern Shore or you’re already out there enjoying the last days of summer. Ocean City itself is not a good place to view meteors — there’s still too much light there — but if you take a short drive down Highway 113 into Cedartown, Md., for example, you’ll be treated to some relatively light-free skies.

Assateague State Park would be an even better spot, but the park closes at sunset so you’ll need to get a camping permit to hang around through the night.

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Shenandoah National Park

Driving distance: 90 miles (2.5 hours)

Meteor viewing quality: Great

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This is obviously the best option if you want to take a drive on Friday or Saturday evening. Many people make the trek from Washington to Shenandoah during August to view the Perseids. The light pollution ratio around Old Rag is just 0.16 to 0.32 — the best you can get so close to the Beltway.

Cherry Springs State Park

Driving distance: 280 miles (five hours)

Meteor viewing quality: Amazing

Cherry Springs State Park is in north-central Pennsylvania. I know it’s not exactly in the “D.C. region,” but it’s plenty close for a weekend trip, and the payoff is worth it. The sky there is very dark. The park has an astronomy field with a 360-degree view of the night sky, where it hosts two major star parties each year.