With the impending return of Peter Budaj from Injured Reserve, the Tampa Bay Lightning face a choice regarding backup goaltending for the remainder of the season. Here, we address the main points of this decision, ultimately arguing that sending Louis Domingue back down to Syracuse is the best choice for the Lightning.

How They Got Here

Peter Budaj joined Tampa Bay late last season as part of a trade that sent former Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop to the LA Kings. A free agent after the season, Budaj re-signed with the Lightning on a two-year, $2.05 million contract. Budaj started seven games for the Lightning earlier this season before an injury on December 29th landed him on Inured Reserve.

Louis Domingue joined the Lightning organization earlier this season as part of a trade with the Coyotes organization. Originally playing for the Syracuse Crunch, Domingue was called up on an emergency basis following Budaj’s injury. Domingue has since played in seven games for the Lightning, starting in six. Domingue is in the second season of a two-year, $2.1 million contract and will be a restricted free agent at the end of this season.

Budaj and Domingue’s Statistics

So far this season, Peter Budaj has recorded a 3-3-1 record with the Lightning, along with a 3.80 GAA and a .898 Sv%. Louis Domingue has recorded a 4-2-0 record with Tampa Bay, coupled with a 3.29 GAA and a .904 Sv%. While these numbers favor Domingue somewhat, it is worth looking into these numbers a bit more.

We gain a bit more insight when we look at save percentages by shot type, coded by Corsica. Budaj’s save percentages for low-, medium-, and high-danger shots are .9863, .9062, and .6364, respectively. In contrast, Domingue’s numbers with the Lightning are .9767, .9000, and .8065. While Budaj appears to do ever-so-slightly better at saving low- and medium-danger shots and Domingue seems to do a fair amount better at saving high-danger shots, these differences are not significant at the 95% level (though Domingue’s performance is very close to significantly better on high-danger shots).

The Remainder of This Season

The Lightning are clearly gearing up for a deep playoff run, given their trades at the deadline. To that end, it might be wise for the Lightning to play starter Andrei Vasilevskiy a bit less for the remainder of the regular season to keep him fresh for the playoffs and to reduce his risk of injury. Given the Lightning’s current position in the standings, it is unlikely that a relatively slim difference in goaltending caliber, even if one exists, would matter in terms of the ultimate outcome for the team — making the playoffs. We can then consider the relative benefits of keeping either Budaj or Domingue on for the remainder of the regular season.

Keeping Budaj

Keeping Peter Budaj up with the Lightning, provided Domingue does not play in three more games, allows the Tampa to avoid the possibility of losing a backup goaltender to waivers. This would be particularly important if something were to happen to Vasilevskiy or Domingue, as Budaj or Domingue as a backup would be an option much preferable to Connor Ingram or Eddie Pasquale.

Keeping Peter Budaj up also allows Tampa to preserve one of their two remaining regular season recalls. Given that the Lightning want access to the best roster possible, it makes sense to conserve recalls and sending Budaj down in favor of Domingue would limit them to one non-emergency recall for the remainder of the regular season.

Sending Domingue down helps the Syracuse Crunch, as Domingue is eligible for the AHL playoffs while Budaj is not. While ultimately of little import, relative to the Stanley Cup, the Calder Cup is still a desirable trophy and it would be very nice if the Crunch were in the best position possible to compete for it.

Sending Domingue down also has the benefit of giving Domingue more ice time. This is important for two reasons. For one, if something were to happen to Vasilevskiy or Budaj, Domingue would be better prepared to step in on an emergency basis. Additionally, as Domingue is in a contract year, maximizing Domingue’s ice time may help the Lightning decide if they want to re-sign him in the off-season and, if so, the length and amount of such a contract.

Keeping Domingue

Given the proximity to the playoffs, it can be argued that consistency is important, and the Lightning may not need the additional stress of another change at goaltender. Keeping Domingue in the backup role would allow the Lightning to maximize consistency on this front, not only because the team may be used to playing with Domingue after over two months on the ice together, but also because Domingue plays a more dynamic style of hockey, similar in some ways to Vasilevskiy’s, relative to Budaj’s more positional goaltending.

As stated above, Domingue is in a contract year. While observing his play in the AHL is certainly important, the hope would ultimately be for him to play in the NHL consistently. To that end, it is important to continue to evaluate his performance against other NHL players and that is only possible by sending Budaj down.

Budaj may still clear waivers. While a player with a large amount of experience at the NHL level and a fantastic 2016-2017 season, Budaj is 35 years old and it is unclear if any teams would be interested enough in a goalie coming back from a major injury to put in a claim on him, though he would likely prove a serviceable backup goaltender for a team next season.

Moving Forward

While touching on the future, the above arguments primarily address Budaj and Domingue’s role with the organization this season. It is less clear what the backup goaltending situation will be like for the Lightning after this season, though the ramifications of this season’s actions could certainly help shape that.

Conclusion

Ultimately, there are benefits for keeping either Budaj or Domingue. Given the relatively similar performance of the two goaltenders, along with the relative gains and losses of one playing in the AHL, we argue that, ultimately, keeping Budaj up is the better choice for the Tampa Bay Lightning at this time.