Growing threat for snow, high winds Thursday

By Ian Livingston

Will it be a near miss or significant hit?

* Winter Storm Watch for metro area Wed. night-Thur. (map) *

* February climate facts and near feats | Weather Wall | Get There *

Today's rather benign weather behind us, we're back into a hectic period with the potential for a close call or even a substantial snowstorm starting tomorrow night and lasting into Thursday. Under mostly cloudy skies today, we've seen the melt down continue as highs rise into the low-and-mid 40s this afternoon. But enough about that, what about the snow chances?

Through Tonight: We'll stay mostly cloudy overnight with lows ranging from the upper 20s in the coldest suburban spots to possibly as high as the mid-30s downtown. Breezes from the northwest should be around 10 mph or so, maybe a little higher at times.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): There may be some breaks in the clouds early before we trend back cloudy as the storm approaches -- highs reach the low-to-mid 40s most spots. By late afternoon or evening, precipitation in the form of rain or snow should begin to advance from the south. The bulk of any activity should hold off until the overnight or Thursday.

Tomorrow Night: Much uncertainty still exists regarding the storm system that will develop off the coast. Right now we sit on a border between little to perhaps no snow accumulation to the west, and potentially significant snowfall to the east. Uncertainty aside, the odds of snow increase overnight, especially over eastern sections of the area. Lows should fall to the mid-20s to near 30.

Thursday: A chance of snow, possibly significant, may continue into much of Thursday. While we can't yet say with certainty how much falls, we do know one thing: it will be very windy as the storm strengthens rapidly off the coast. Highs could range from near freezing if we see more snow to the upper 30s if less. Winds from the west/northwest will increase to at least 25 mph sustained, with gusts to 50 mph or higher, as the day progresses.

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Keep reading for the accumulation probabilities (now superceded by the info in tonight's update).

Accumulations (Wed. night-Thurs.): Here are our latest snowfall accumulation probabilities...

Less than 2": 50%

2-4": 20%

4-8": 20%

8"+: 10%

West of the Beltway, snow potential decreases a little...

Less than 2": 60%

2-4": 15%

4-8": 15%

8"+: 10%

Forecast issued at 3:55 p.m., extended watch info updated at 6:10 p.m.