Evan Vucci/AP Photo

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- A new poll from Baldwin Wallace University released Tuesday shows Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine with a slight lead over Democratic former federal consumer watchdog Richard Cordray in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. John Kasich.

The same survey has Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown besting U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci by a wide margin in the Senate race. Republican President Donald Trump also has low approval ratings.

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The results are in line with other recent surveys of the electorate in Ohio, painting a picture of a competitive governor's race and a runaway Senate contest for Brown. The poll also shows a generally favorable electoral climate for Democrats, but not on the level of a "blue wave," as many have speculated might happen nationwide.

The Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute conducted the poll of likely registered voters from Sept. 5-15. Participants were part of online panels that were curated by Qualtrics. The sample size was 1,048, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points and the results are weighted by demographics.

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DeWine's slight edge

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Bryan Woolston/AP Photo

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DeWine and Cordray have been neck-and-neck in just about every survey of the gubernatorial race so far. While still a statistical tie, DeWine at 42 percentage points has a slight lead over Cordray at 37 percentage points. Twenty-one percent of respondents said they weren't sure who they were voting for.

DeWine's advantage is largely thanks to men, 47 percent of whom said they supported him. Cordray only pulled support from 35 percent of men.

Women were roughly split, with 38 percent supporting Cordray and 37 percent supporting DeWine.

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David Dermer/AP Photo

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Both DeWine and Cordray were relatively well-liked, with a net favorable rating of 8 percentage points each. However, 47 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about Cordray to have an opinion while only 22 percent said the same about DeWine.

The large percentage of people who haven't heard of Cordray by now does not bode well for the coming weeks until the election. DeWine and outside groups like the Republican Governors Association have launched an onslaught of negative advertising in an attempt to define Cordray to the public.

That strategy might be working.

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In a Quinnipiac University poll from June, only 15 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Cordray. Almost 23 percent of respondents said the same thing about Cordray in the BW poll.

Worse for Cordray is the public's opinion on Kasich. While the Republican has largely rebuked the Republican Party overall, he tepidly endorsed DeWine after securing his support on protection for the Medicaid expansion.

Kasich is still very popular for a second-term governor, with 50 percent of respondents saying they approved of Kasich's performance. His support was roughly split, with 53 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of Democrats responding positively to Kasich's handling of the governor's office, including strong support for his handling of the economy and the Medicaid expansion.

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Brown's up big

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Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

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Brown continues to dominate in the Senate race, according to the BW poll. Nearly half of all respondents at 49 percent said they were voting for Brown in the Senate election. Renacci, a congressman from Wadsworth, only tallied 32 percent, while 19 percent said they were undecided.

Brown also had a net favorable rating of 20 percentage points, with nearly half of respondents holding a favorable view of the senator. His job approval was slightly higher, with a net approval of 22 percentage points, including 50 percent approving of his job performance.

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Renacci was much more unpopular with a net unfavorable rating of 4 percentage points. Forty-four percent of those surveyed hadn't heard enough about him. The BW poll did not ask about Renacci's job approval.

Brown has been in firm control of the Senate race since Renacci entered in January. Ohio was supposed to be an opportunity for a GOP pickup, but outside groups like the Senate Leadership Fund have abandoned the state, essentially ceding the win to the Democrats.

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John Minchillo/AP Photo

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The Trump effect

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Susan Walsh/AP Photo

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The poll results continue to show an electoral climate that is generally favorable to Democrats in a state Republican President Donald Trump won in 2016 by 8 percentage points. Republicans probably have Trump to thank for that environment.

The BW poll shows Trump's job approval is underwater, with a net disapproval of 9 percentage points, including 52 percent who said they disapproved.

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Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Photo

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As with other polls, there's a large gender gap when it comes to Trump's approval. Men were roughly split with 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving, but only 39 percent of women approved of Trump's job performance. More than 55 percent disapproved.

That chasm between men and women has driven politics since Trump won the 2016 election. Women voters, even those who identify as more conservative, have drifted to the Democratic Party in recent special elections.

But the more telling number might be Trump's potentially waning support from Republicans.

The president has maintained approval of nearly 90 percent among his own party in most public surveys. However, only 81 percent of Republicans said they approved of the job he was doing in the BW poll.

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But a flurry of scandals during his time in office coupled with unpopular policies seem to have diminished the president's standing in Ohio.

Voters were supportive of the tax cuts passed by Trump and Republicans in Congress, but disapproved of Trump's trade tariffs, his immigration policy and his treatment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union.

Trump's use of social media drew an overwhelmingly negative response in the BW poll as well, with 70 percent saying he was using his personal Twitter too much, including just more than 50 percent of Republicans.

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Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

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Ohioans also largely supported Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into possible collusion with Russia by Trump's 2016 campaign, despite Trump's constant attacks. Fifty-three percent of those polled said they approved of the investigation, while 34 percent opposed it.

The investigation has already yielded multiple indictments and convictions, including those of Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen and 2016 campaign manager Paul Manafort.

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No support for Kasich for president

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Charles Krupa/AP Photo

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Despite Trump's decreasing popularity and Gov. Kasich's solid support numbers, Ohioans in the BW poll had no desire to see Kasich run for president.

Kasich, who has been Trump's most outward Republican foil, has teased a possible 2020 run against the president for months now.

But even though Kasich won the Ohio Republican primary in 2016, only 30 percent of respondents said they wanted to see him run in 2020 while 45 percent said they wouldn't. That includes a majority of Republicans at 53 percent and a plurality of independents at 47 percent who have no appetite for a third Kasich presidential run.

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Democrats have an enthusiasm edge

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Democratic voters are more energized than their Republican counterparts, per the BW poll. While 53 percent of Republicans and 52 percent of independents said the 2018 elections were more important than past midterm contests, 67 percent of Democrats said the same.

Democrats also led the generic congressional ballot 43 percent to Republicans' 40 percent. Independents broke toward the generic Democrat candidate 31 percent to 26 percent for the Republican candidate. Nearly 36 percent of independents said they were unsure.

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Health care tops voters' minds

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Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

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In both the U.S. Senate and governor's race, health care was the top issue in the election, with the economy coming in second. More than 77 percent of respondents in the BW poll said health care was a very important issue.

Democrats, especially those in congressional races, have run hard on health care this cycle as public support for the Affordable Care Act, more commonly known as Obamacare, has increased to its highest level since the law was passed.

But Republicans have eased on Obamacare as well after years of running on repeal -- with the GOP's 2017 attempt to dismantle the health care law failing by one vote in the Senate.

Once a hardliner against Obamacare, DeWine recently switched his position and said he supported the Medicaid expansion, part of the ACA instituted under Kasich that gave health coverage to 700,000 Ohioans. More than 69 percent of voters in the BW poll said they supported the Medicaid expansion.

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U.S. Rep. Dave Joyce, a Republican from Bainbridge Township, who is in a district Democrats are targeting, has touted his vote against the 2017 GOP repeal bill in a campaign commercial despite voting to undo Obamacare more than 30 times prior to Trump's election.

Voters ranked the economy, taxes, gun policy and immigration after health care in terms of importance, with more than 50 percent saying each issue was very important.

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Read the poll

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Baldwin Wallace September 1... by on Scribd