An Introduction to the Holds Stat

Personally speaking, I wasn’t even aware holds was a fantasy category until 2016. To be honest, the stat seemed a little silly to me. First off, it’s an unofficial statistic measuring the effectiveness of non-closers. Per MLB, “For those pitchers, their primary job is to not relinquish the lead, while getting the ball to the next reliever in line.” If you have 5 minutes, it’s actually a pretty interesting page to mull over. For example, did you know the all-time career leader is Arthur Rhodes (231), but that Joaquin Benoit (211) is nipping at his heels? Neither did I. Anyway, I digress from the historical and random trivia surrounding the hold.

Here’s everything you need to know about Holds in two tables:

Holds Stats 2015 – 2017, Min Qualified Innings # Qualified P w/ at least 1 Hold Avg IP/season Avg HLD/season Avg K/9 xFIP 2015 112 62 12.8 8.7 3.67 2016 117 64 12.8 9.1 3.78 2017 147 63 12 9.37 3.97 Avg over 3 seasons 125 63 12.5 9.05 3.8

A couple of takeaways as we digest this information. First, there was a significant increase in the number of pitchers who earned at least one hold last year. Second, the average number of holds over the course of a season decreased. Third, everything else was more or less static.

Holds Stats 2015 – 2017, Top 5 Leaders 2015 2016 2017 Tony Watson Addison Reed Taylor Rogers Sergio Romo Kyle Barraclough Nick Vincent Joe Smith Neftali Feliz Andrew Miller Justin Wilson Will Harris Anthony Swarzak

A couple of things to mull over from this table. First, holy crap, remember Joe Smith? Joe Smith was a real-life ballplayer and Joe Smith was definitely someone who was good at baseball. I think. More importantly – and perhaps the main takeaway from this preamble – do not under any circumstances invest in a holds reliever. They change with whichever way the wind is blowing. As I mentioned before, holds is kind of a dumb stat. A fun stat, but a dumb stat.

That said, the rise of the elite reliever has been well-documented. It’s going to be more pervasive with each year until the culture changes. Don’t blame me, blame Andrew Miller and Terry Francona. Failed starters turned dominant relievers are a dime-a-dozen. It’s so en vogue that Robert Gsellman & Seth Lugo are the next Archie Bradley, who was the next Andrew Miller, who was the next Dellin Betances.

Because these relievers are going to be more pervasive in our fantasy game, it’s time to start thinking about how we can identify the next Robert Gsellman & Seth Lugo. Perhaps it’s a fool’s errand to identify current failing starters who could be elite relievers. We won’t be doing that. Over the course of the season, we’ll be identifying HODOR’s in recognition of the article’s namesake. Elite relievers we shouldn’t overlook receiving hold opportunities.

Before next week’s feature, where I’ll highlight a few relievers for your consideration, it would be wise to add or monitor the following names: Jose Alvarado, Craig Stammen, Addison Reed, Bryan Shaw, Adam Cimber, and Tayron Guerrero. Heard of a majority of these guys? Neither have most of your friends. That’s good for you.

See you next week.