BELFAST — Naomi Long occupies a unique niche in Northern Ireland’s political spectrum.

In a region where politics has traditionally divided along sectarian lines — between Irish nationalism and pro-British unionism — the recently elected member of the European Parliament represents a new political force: Northern Irish voters who identify as “neithers” — eschewing national identity as their primary political motivation.

As leader of the liberal Alliance Party, Long is one of the beneficiaries of the destabilization of Northern Irish politics by the U.K.’s Brexit referendum. Her party’s unambiguously pro-EU stance has allowed it to peel off unionist Remainers disaffected by the pro-Leave positions of the main unionist parties.

Polls suggest Alliance could even pose a serious challenge to the dominant Democratic Unionist Party, were the U.K. to hold an election in the coming months.

“I think that because of Brexit, people who previously might not necessarily have wandered around saying ‘I’m a proud European,’ suddenly feel that something valuable is being stripped away and they don’t like that,” Long said in an interview.

As leader of the liberal Alliance Party, Long is one of the beneficiaries of the destabilization of Northern Irish politics by the U.K.’s Brexit referendum.

Long, who describes Brexit as “billions spent on something we don’t need to do” has dedicated her time in the European Parliament to lobbying authorities on both sides of the Channel to do everything they can to prevent a no-deal Brexit — and ideally reverse the decision to leave altogether.

In the longer term, Long and her supporters could end up playing a key role in another constitutional debate: the region’s long-standing disagreement over whether to remain part of the U.K. or break away to join Dublin to create a united Ireland.

Alliance does not currently hold a position on the issue of reunification. Long says the party would “make a decision at the time based on the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland.”

Polls indicate it’s Long and her supporters — the undecided, largely disinterested middle — who would provide the key swing vote deciding the region’s future.

The biggest factor affecting their decision: Brexit.

Silent majority

Northern Ireland remains deeply segregated, with separate education systems, occasional physical walls between Irish nationalist and British unionist communities, and the constitutional question dominating every political contest.

But for more than a decade, the largest group of people in the region has been people who don’t identify as unionists or nationalists: a group who are deeply alienated from politics and identify as “neither,” according to the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey.

A study by the academics Katy Hayward and Cathal McManus found that these “neithers” are predominantly female, but include people of all ages, religious backgrounds and of both British and Irish national identities. The difficulty is getting them to show up at elections.

“Many of those people who you might assume would be the natural constituency for Alliance, people who don’t define themselves narrowly as unionist or nationalist, have no interest in getting involved in politics,” Long said. “It can be very difficult to get those people to come out and vote.”

But Brexit may be changing that. This year has been a breakthrough for the small Alliance Party, buoyed by increased turnout and hardened commitment to EU membership among those who voted Remain.

While Northern Ireland voted 56 percent against Brexit, it is forecast to take the greatest economic hit of any part of the U.K.

Polls also indicate that the 2016 referendum result has alienated the “neithers” from Britain, and that the outcome of the negotiations will be crucial in how they feel about unification with Ireland.

A poll by Lucid Talk found that if Brexit doesn’t happen, a majority of “neithers” would favor remaining in the U.K.

If, instead, the U.K. were to leave the EU under the terms of the deal negotiated by former Prime Minister Theresa May, they would lean toward unification with Ireland. In the case of a no-deal Brexit, they swing hard in favor of a united Ireland.

This year has been a breakthrough for the small Alliance Party, buoyed by increased turnout and hardened commitment to EU membership among those who voted Remain.

A more recent poll by Lord Ashcroft did not measure “neithers” but found similar results among those who did not identify as being Catholic or Protestant. Those of no religion are 67 percent in favor of Remain; 81 percent feel Brexit strengthened the case for Irish unification; and 71 percent said Brexit makes them feel “less close to the U.K.”

The British government’s embrace of a hard Brexit position has left the Northern Ireland centerground feeling unheard and overlooked and — unexpectedly — in sync with a Dublin government that has been arguing to retain the region largely in EU alignment.

“I see myself as a European, that matters to me,” Long said. “I think it also matters hugely to the kind of people who vote Alliance.”

“Brexit has brought it front and center,” she added. “So we see people who are unionist, who are nationalist, people who are British, Irish, people [who are] both of those things or neither, actually coalesce around that European identity.”

Carving a space

Long grew up in eastern Belfast during the conflict in a “militant and single-identity” pro-British community. She credits her years studying civil engineering at Queens University Belfast with transforming her point of view, as it put her into a mixed environment of nationalists, unionists and people from around the world.

She joined the Alliance Party after a canvasser came to her door by chance, and was drawn into active politics on a feeling of optimism and resolution to build a better future that came with the ceasefires of the 1990s.

Her resume includes a series of political upsets, starting in 2010 with her defeat of Peter Robinson, then first minister of Northern Ireland and leader of the Democratic Unionist Party. Long took the Belfast East seat he had held for 30 years to become the first Alliance Party MP in the House of Commons.

Long was drawn into active politics on a feeling of optimism and resolution to build a better future that came with the ceasefires of the 1990s.

She lasted just one term. A 2012 Alliance Party motion to limit the number of days the Union Flag is flown over Belfast City Hall was the catalyst for the so-called Flag Protests — weeks of wildcat unrest in which the party’s constituency offices were ransacked and petrol-bombed.

Daily protests gathered outside Long’s office for months, and she received repeated death threats from loyalist paramilitaries. In 2015 a pan-unionist electoral pact succeeded in electing Gavin Robinson, a DUP politician and former lord mayor of Belfast, to replace her in the Belfast East seat.

She considered quitting politics, describing it as “a bruising five years.” But instead, she ran for a seat in Northern Ireland’s Stormont Assembly in 2016 and took the leadership of her party. She was returned in elections the following year, in which she topped the poll in Belfast East.

This year, the surge of support for the Alliance Party that followed the Brexit referendum culminated in a series of victories. In local elections in May, Alliance increased its representation on local councils by 65 percent, and extended its reach into areas far beyond its traditional base in Belfast.

This was followed within weeks by Long’s election to the European Parliament, drawing ballots from across the spectrum and more than doubling the Alliance Party vote.

Since the first European Parliament election 1979, the region had always sent two unionists and a nationalist to Strasbourg and Brussels. This year, Long became the first MEP ever to be elected in Northern Ireland not affiliated with either group.

“I work hard,” she added. “You’re fighting against the politics of fear that is played out at every election.”

Desegregation

As leader, Long has sought to de-emphasize questions of Irish and British identity, pushing progressive policies and efforts at reconciliation.

The collapse of a power-sharing agreement between nationalists and unionists has left Northern Ireland without a government since 2017, and Long cites a litany of issues that can’t be rectified without an assembly: a hole in education funding that has left parents and teachers chipping in to buy basic supplies; the absence of a minister who can improve infrastructure works, preventing development.

After a recent election, Long recalled, it was discovered that the majority of the newly elected Belfast councilors had never been outside their own quarter of the city. A bus tour of the city was organized to redress this.

“I was stunned,” Long said. “If our political leadership is so closed into these very small communities and not seeing the big picture of the city, then that’s a challenge for society.”

As leader, Long has sought to de-emphasize questions of Irish and British identity, pushing progressive policies and efforts at reconciliation.

She credits simple interventions, like mixed-community schools, and the advent of the Belfast Glider bus that allows people to travel directly between east and west Belfast, as having a significant impact. They “allow people to see that the people on the opposite side of the city, on the opposite side of the wall, don’t have horns,” she said.

And so it’s ironic that it’s another constitutional question that is dominating Long’s recent political career.

Long has been on what she described as a race against time to use her position to protect Northern Ireland from the potentially dire fallout of a no-deal Brexit. Her calendar is filled with appointments lobbying whoever she can to try to prevent a crash out, or if possible, stop Britain from leaving the EU at all. On Wednesday, she hosted a cross-party hearing on Brexit and Northern Ireland, gathering MEPs from across Ireland and the U.K.

The Brexit negotiations will also determine how much time Long has in the job. Without an extension, her pass to the European Parliament will expire on October 31.

“The U.K. is working its way through a constitutional crisis,” Long said. “I’m saying to the European partners: Give us time.”

“Nobody wants a broken Britain at the edge of the EU, constantly in turmoil and in conflict,” she said. “Time is the one thing that the EU can give us.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misstated the person who replaced Long in the Belfast East seat. He is Gavin Robinson.

This article is part of POLITICO’s premium Brexit service for professionals: Brexit Pro. To test our expert policy coverage of the implications and next steps per industry, email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.