I have developed somewhat of a reputation, deservedly or not (hint: it is deservedly), as Raphaël Varane's biggest fan on WAGNH. This is mainly because I am huge advocate of his signing, I am sure that many of you are also fans of Varane as a player. Today I am talking to you as your former managerial applicant.

This post is meant to cover the main issues of whether or not a move for Varane makes sense in reasonable detail (all of which is open to debate should you so wish). I don't have access to watch every single game Varane plays, but I have seen a fair amount of him including, but not limited to, European knock out appearances and Clasicos. Anyone with more comprehensive viewing is welcome to add to this.

Chelsea had the best defence in the league last year, do they need a new CB?

Yes and no. It really depends on the system.

For starters Chelsea's defence was only excellent after the turn of the year, when the whole team changed mentality to be more solid. This followed some very shaky defensive performances including conceding 3 against both Stoke and Sunderland. Mourinho changed from a high block system to a much lower block defence. This required defensive work from the entire team. The wide players were asked to track their men, Cahill became the aggressive CB partnered with the watchful Terry behind and out of position Azpilicueta, who barely attacked, spending most of his time covering John Terry from being exposed for pace. That worked very well as we all know, so why change it?

Well for one thing it requires the whole team to work back. You will have seen this fail in the home leg against Atletico. Hazard didn't track his man, the rest of the defence was disorganised, Chelsea conceded, tried to attack, conceded twice more and went out of the Champions League. That links nicely to the other problem with this system, getting the whole team involved in the defensive operation in this way costs you in attack.

So lets talk about they high block system we tried to employ. First thing to point out is that this tactic requires a high press to make it harder for the opposition to bypass play like we saw under AVB. With the set of attacking midfielders we have (Oscar, Fàbregas, Hazard, Schürrle, Willian and Salah) that is something that Mourinho can certainly employ to great effect. The addition of Diego Costa also benefits this aim. We saw a high press used early last year when Oscar was in form. The reason this works very well for Chelsea's particular set of AMs is that they are happy to interchange position, so the attacking band can't get pulled out of shape while pressing, meaning any ball recovery can be capitalised upon (defending very quickly becoming attacking).

But all that has relatively little to do with the centre back position, surely? (Yes and stop calling me Shirley). Not quite, it is related to the biggest vulnerability of a high defence, space behind. Now one of the most entertaining ways to deal with this is to use a madman goalkeeper to sweep up space. We saw this demonstrated well by AVB's Spurs' with Hugo Lloris and Germany's Manuel Neuer against the mighty Algeria. This does not strike me as a particularly Mourinho style decision or suited to either of Chelsea's top class 'keepers, Thibaut Courtois and Petr Čech. The other way to deal with this is through a very smart and mobile back four who can use an effective offside trap to move up when necessary and drop as it sees fit. This requires good communication and awareness from the centre backs in particular. This is where David Luiz (who made 13 starts at CB before the 'regression') failed the system. His mistakes, such as against Cardiff, become very exposed and often result in an opposition goal. Pace is also great as an emergency cover option, if your goalie isn't playing right back.

Another issue with playing a high line is that the midfield area becomes compacted as the oppositions strikers are forced deeper to stay onside. With a congested middle, it becomes very difficult to play the ball into an attacking position. This leads to the classic 'cagey' encounter. Teams are able to play the ball across the back line but are afraid to play it forward as they risk losing the ball to the opponent as the midfield players cancel each other out. Enter the mythical 'ball playing central defender', now what this primarily means is a defender with the ability to pass long better than his more robust colleagues (there are of course exceptions, such as John Terry who is both a stereotypical tackle loving Neanderthal and a capable passer). A long pass takes out the midfield congestion forcing your side onto the attack. The other option (particularly for Luiz) was to drive into the midfield himself to create space as he gets closed down or make a better passing option. This is more risky and you might lose the ball letting Germany win 7-1.

For Chelsea specifically, Luiz with 13 CB starts has left and Terry will turn 34 next year. This leaves the club with just one central defender who can be counted on for every game, Cahill. Terry should still be able to make 30 starts, but in a full season that leaves 30 starts at CB for someone else (resting Cahill a little of course). I don't think any prospect is ready for that. Ivanovic is another option to take some slack, but the current full back situation is not ideal with 3 players covering 2 positions. The club only has 6 recognised defenders for 4 positions (Luis, Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Terry, Cahill, Zouma), Mourinho famously demands 2 for every position. Any injury/suspension to Luis or Azpilicueta and Ivanovic is unavailable to play centrally (or even striker as may be his true calling).

This leaves the club needing a new centre back. Links to Miranda of Atletico, Benatia of Roma and of course, my man, Raphaël Varane, suggest that the club agrees. So the guy Chelsea need is a ball-playing central defender who is able to read the game well and ideally has a little pace. A David Luiz who isn't a lunatic.

Is Varane that guy?

Yes, moving on.

Fine, I'll jutify that opinion. Firstly, he passes the metric by which Chelsea are esteemed enough to judge their defenders, Lionel Messi. The world's best player (debatable but makes us sound better in this instance) has never scored against Chelsea. Incoming goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is on a record 8 game streak of shutting out the diminutive Argentine. Chelsea defenders need to be able to stop him to uphold the club's good name. To that tune, here is an all touched video for Varane (No. 2) against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey.

There are several small things to note in this video. Poor Carvalho, why are you wearing the 11 shirt and how can you look so lost? Where is our assassin? Varane makes an excellent jump and a fine header for his goal, all very nice use of his 6 ft 3 frame. Also, he makes a goal line clearance, which is another pillar is the Parthenon of Chelsea defending.

That clearance along with several other of his interceptions are all indicative of the intelligence Varane possesses. For someone who is so young, he reads the game like a much older player. This has been key in allowing him to play at the top level so quickly, much like John Terry all those years ago. It puts him at the opposite end of the spectrum to David Luiz, who's misreading of situations led to many of his mistakes. So not a lunatic.

His abundant pace is also demonstrated well in this video, beating Messi in a foot race and making up a huge amount of ground on our very own Cesc Fàbregas before making a crucial challenge. This is exactly the emergency situation which pace can get a team out of.

Varane also has first-class distribution. There is a lovely chipped forward pass in the video and we have seen effective long balls for his country at the World Cup, including creating a goal scoring counter move from a corner (Valbuena against Switzerland).

We also saw the worse side of Varane at the World Cup where he got nudged/brushed/shoved (depending on who you ask) out of the way by Mats Hummels allowing him to score the deciding goal in the quarter final. Some have claimed this was based on a physical weakness. That is not entirely true. A body in the air is far easier to move sideways than one on the ground as it can't resist motion through friction (think about how you juggle a heavy object up to reposition it as you carry it). Varane was at fault for jumping as early as he did. This allowed Hummels to push him with the ease. It was naïve of the young Frenchman to not expect the (possibly illegal) contact from the German. We have forgiven more experienced defenders for mistakes like this and they do not plague his game. Given that Varane has also performed very well against strikers like Didier Drogba (in 2013 when he was better than the player we saw at the Bridge this year), physicality is not something hugely concerning.

In my opinion Varane is exactly the kind of defender Chelsea need. Other suitable players include the aforementioned pair of Mats Hummels and Mehdi Benatia . Varane's age makes him the stand out candidate here, at 21 he can provide top level performances for over ten years, a privilege afforded to Chelsea by the great John Terry in recent times.

If he is so good, why would he leave Madrid?

Money and playing time mostly.

Under Mourinho Varane was a starter and under Ancelotti he has been behind the pairing of Pepe and Ramos. Ancelotti was reportedly waiting on a very late fitness test on Pepe to play him ahead of Varane. Carlo may of course have been thinking along the lines of Cahill and Luiz as less fit Cbs being used to win the Champions League final. Varane of course got into an altication with Atletico manager, and all round psycho, Diego Simeone, which could be reason enough to flee Madrid.

Varane had a knee injury coming into the season, which did not allow him to establish himself in the managers thinking as much as he had under Mourinho. This could be one explanation for the situation, but it is by no means certain that Varane will start ahead of Pepe anytime soon. Marca, have reported Varane is unhappy with this state of affairs.

Varane is widely reported to earn £25k per week. That is lots for you and I (unless Roman is reading in which case: Hi, thanks but hurry up and sign Varane!) , but it is not beyond the world of football for those wages to be tripled at least. Marca also report that showdown talks about Varane's contract are due when he returns, and Chelsea are supposedly monitoring as these progress. Manchester United are also rumoured to be looking and caughtoffside claim Arsenal have already sealed a deal.

As with all Spanish contracts, Varane has a buyout clause. The value of this is unclear. Some sources claim it to be as low as £20m. That seems too good to be true, but dpending on agreements with Madrid, if Varane is on the same deal he signed in 2011 (aged 18) it might not be so hard to believe.

Madrid would be frankly mad to sell Varane. They have made mad decisions before and might not be willing to keep a player around who wants out. If Varane does leave Madrid, it will be somehwat suprising.

Would he even come to Chelsea?

Because Mourinho. And money, but Mourinho makes our money better than everyone else's.

"Pepe has a problem and it is called Varane"

Shots fired. During his time in Madrid, Jose controversially dropped Pep in favour of the young Frenchman. This was not a move that helped relations with the Spanish press or sections of the Madrid fan base, not that Mourinho cared. Mourinho signed Varane and gave him his big break at the top level. Blooding youth is not something the Portuguese is known for, so high praise indeed. We know the kind of loyalty Mourinho inspires from his players. Many times have Lampard, Drogba and Terry talked of their admiration for him, even years after his departure. Carvalho had played under Jose at three separate clubs, Essien twice. Mourinho will always have his loyalists.

"I think he is the best young central defender in the world. Already I think he's the best."

And Mourinho still seems to rate Varane outside of the cauldron of the Madrid hot seat. This is a quote from earlier this season, while he was discussing the best three young players at the forthcoming World Cup. The other two young stars he rated alongside Varane? Neymar and Eden Hazard. Not bad company if you ask me.

There is an idea that Varane's relationship with Mourinho is overplayed and that French legend Zinedine Zidane is the man who brought Varane to Real and the biggest influence on him joining the club. Here is Varane's own account of joining the Spanish giants after Zidane (Real's Sporting Director/special advisor at the time) had travelled to France to make the offer.

"You signed for Real Madrid when you were 18, after just one season with Lens. Did you have any hesitation about making such a big move? Were you tempted to stay on and develop your game at a smaller club? Yes, of course. A lot of thought went into that decision. My initial feeling was that it wasn't worth it and that I wouldn't get a game. Then when I heard what the coach's plans were I changed my mind. I didn't go into it with my eyes closed. It was Jose Mourinho who convinced me. He said that I'd progress, that I'd reach the very highest level and that the move would be nothing but positive for me."

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y=2013/m=10/news=varane-thuram-role-model-2195661.html

I think it is safe to say Mourinho means something to Varane. Mourinho also seems to rate the player. Given Mourinho's somewhat forceful nature and slight propensity to, shall we say, favouritism, it is not unlikely that he will want Chelsea involved if Varane is leaving Madrid.

What about our prospects?

There is a chance for them, if they can continue to develop.

Chelsea have four top class CB prospects; Tomáš Kalas, Kenneth Omeruo, Kurt Zouma and Andreas Christensen. Kalas and Omeruo already find themselves on loan for next year, Zouma could also be loaned while Chritensen will likely remain in the youth ranks and earn club trained status in the coming years. The club has shown time and again that the success of the first team comes first. If they club deems these players not to be good enough, they will not get the 30+ matches I referenced above. This is why the club needs a CB.

There is a line of thinking against signing a 21 year old defender when we have young CBs already. Varane is older than any Chelsea prospect, here are the age gaps to Varane.

Kalas - 20 days

Omeruo - 5 months, 24 days

Zouma - 1 year, 6 months, 2 days

Christensen - 2 years, 11 months, 16 days

The difference in experience and quality between Varane and these guys is huge. With 22 Champions League appearances, including a final, Varane has proven himself at a level beyond our existing younsters. It should be noted that Omeruo also has several international caps, international football ranks rather lower than a good league/European competition in my estimation.

So right now, despite the narrow age gaps, Varane is the only viable starter for Chelsea. The question now comes as to whether signing him will prove an obsticle to our own prospects making the first team in the future. To copy myself from an ealier comment, this is how things could evolve with Chelsea's current set of central defenders, assuming no other signings.

If we sign Varane, that gives one pospect the chance after Terry leaves next year (Terry 34, Ivanovic 31, Cahill 29, Varane 22, Kalas 22, Omeruo 21, Zouma 20, Christensen 19). We lose Ivanovic as cover in 2 years, this is where we might see Cahill reducing his role, or if a prospects looks like he will be adequate cover only he will come back (Ivanovic 33, Cahill 31, Varane 24, Kalas 24, Omeruo 23, Zouma 22, Christensen 21). Then we have say another year of Cahill, 2 maximum. (Cahill 32, Varane 25, Kalas 25, Omeruo 24, Zouma 23, Christensen 22), that gives 1 more spot. There is the potential for 3 prospects to make it into Chelsea's CB rotation. It is not unlikely that at least one prospect will fail to reach the required level.

So there you have it. The only way to afford more opportunity to our prospects would be signing an older CB. This secures the club short term, but we then have to hope for our prospects to develop to Chelsea calibre, which is by no means assured. Signing Varane locks down one starting CB spot for the next 10 years and if the club spend a similar amount on an older player, it will be a worse investment (provided Varane is available of course).

That is great, I totally agree with you now! What more is there to say?

Well, I'm glad if I have convinced you. I really do feel that Varane is a once in a generation defender and signing him would be a major coup for Chelsea. I would go as far to say that he would be the most talented signing since Eden Hazard.

A strong case can also be made of Benatia and possibly Hummels, I open this to others if they want to compile a similar anylsis. While not hugely relevant, I am capable to adding a poll, so the final question, how much would you want Chelsea to spend on Raphaël Varane?