HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1) Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2019. sport round site Game 5 rec. series rec. all all all 366-278 (.568) 591-53 (.918) all all H 278-138 (.668) 391-25 (.940) all all V 88-140 (.386) 200-28 (.877) all Finals all 63-52 (.548) 107-8 (.930) all Finals H 43-30 (.589) 68-5 (.932) all Finals V 20-22 (.476) 39-3 (.929) all Semis all 94-70 (.573) 152-12 (.927) all Semis H 66-34 (.660) 95-5 (.950) all Semis V 28-36 (.438) 57-7 (.891) all Qtrs all 116-68 (.630) 173-11 (.940) all Qtrs H 93-32 (.744) 120-5 (.960) all Qtrs V 23-36 (.390) 53-6 (.898) all Prelim all 93-88 (.514) 159-22 (.878) all Prelim H 76-42 (.644) 108-10 (.915) all Prelim V 17-46 (.270) 51-12 (.810) MLB all all 44-43 (.506) 74-13 (.851) MLB all H 26-24 (.520) 43-7 (.860) MLB all V 18-19 (.486) 31-6 (.838) MLB Finals all 26-20 (.565) 40-6 (.870) MLB Finals H 15-9 (.625) 20-4 (.833) MLB Finals V 11-11 (.500) 20-2 (.909) MLB Semis all 18-23 (.439) 34-7 (.829) MLB Semis H 11-15 (.423) 23-3 (.885) MLB Semis V 7-8 (.467) 11-4 (.733) NBA all all 150-101 (.598) 240-11 (.956) NBA all H 128-44 (.744) 169-3 (.983) NBA all V 22-57 (.278) 71-8 (.899) NBA Finals all 18-17 (.514) 34-1 (.971) NBA Finals H 14-12 (.538) 25-1 (.962) NBA Finals V 4-5 (.444) 9-0 (1.000) NBA Semis all 29-26 (.527) 51-4 (.927) NBA Semis H 21-10 (.677) 30-1 (.968) NBA Semis V 8-16 (.333) 21-3 (.875) NBA Qtrs all 65-32 (.670) 93-4 (.959) NBA Qtrs H 57-14 (.803) 70-1 (.986) NBA Qtrs V 8-18 (.308) 23-3 (.885) NBA Prelim all 38-26 (.594) 62-2 (.969) NBA Prelim H 36-8 (.818) 44-0 (1.000) NBA Prelim V 2-18 (.100) 18-2 (.900) NHL all all 172-134 (.562) 277-29 (.905) NHL all H 124-70 (.639) 179-15 (.923) NHL all V 48-64 (.429) 98-14 (.875) NHL Finals all 19-15 (.559) 33-1 (.971) NHL Finals H 14-9 (.609) 23-0 (1.000) NHL Finals V 5-6 (.455) 10-1 (.909) NHL Semis all 47-21 (.691) 67-1 (.985) NHL Semis H 34-9 (.791) 42-1 (.977) NHL Semis V 13-12 (.520) 25-0 (1.000) NHL Qtrs all 51-36 (.586) 80-7 (.920) NHL Qtrs H 36-18 (.667) 50-4 (.926) NHL Qtrs V 15-18 (.455) 30-3 (.909) NHL Prelim all 55-62 (.470) 97-20 (.829) NHL Prelim H 40-34 (.541) 64-10 (.865) NHL Prelim V 15-28 (.349) 33-10 (.767)