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It is generally acknowledged that developing new refining capacity in Alberta is not economically attractive. Factors that make new refining economically challenging include:

• a market that is already well served by existing refineries, meaning new capacity must be oriented to exports by pipeline and tanker to Asia;

• Alberta’s relatively high construction costs due to climate and distance from major ports;

• regulatory requirements that are not faced in other countries in the Pacific basin.

Alberta’s abundant, often deeply discounted bitumen production as a refinery feedstock and a highly skilled and underemployed labour force mitigate some of these disadvantages.

It is possible that proposals will be made by three types of proponents: existing refineries; refineries using new technologies; or refineries with Indigenous participation.

The newest refinery in North America, the $9.7-billion Sturgeon refinery, located north of Edmonton is currently in the startup process following years of construction, which included a $4-billion cost increase and more than a year of delay. Alberta was deeply involved in the development of this refinery and must provide 75 per cent of the diluted bitumen feedstock (about 55,000 barrels per day), and pay tolls of about $850 million per year for the next 30 years to have this feedstock turned into diesel. This refinery has regulatory approval to triple its initial capacity and is likely to put forward an expansion proposal.