The Senate battleground map has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks — a net plus for Democrats but not enough to change their status as heavy underdogs to win the chamber in November.

Democratic incumbents look increasingly safe in four Rust Belt states President Trump carried in 2016 — Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Republicans are locked in a bitter primary until August. Both parties agree a core universe of states are truly in play: Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbents in Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota, while Democrats are contesting GOP-held seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee. There is disagreement on how competitive West Virginia and Montana are.


Democrats headed into the election cycle facing a nightmarish map, with 10 incumbents trying to hang on in states that Trump won. While the party is still mostly on defense, the narrower field improves an otherwise grim outlook. Winning the Senate remains a long shot, but is possible if everything breaks Democrats’ way: They need to net two seats to take back the majority, which means protecting essentially all of their incumbents.

“If you look at it … from 30,000 feet up, you’d say, ‘Oh they don’t have a chance.’ When we started there were 10 states we looked at to hold,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a recent interview. Now, he said, “there are only four that are really close.”

Opportunities to snag GOP-held seats are so scarce that Democrats could easily see multiple incumbents lose if the Trump backlash turns out to be weak. But for now, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) agrees the Senate is in play and has not been bullish on knocking off senators like Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.), who have both opened up double-digit leads, according to polls released this week. So far, there are no suggestions Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) faces any kind of trouble.

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One big clue on which states are truly in play came this week when the Democratic Senate Majority PAC placed fall ad reservations in Florida, West Virginia, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona. For now, the group decided Brown, Casey, Stabenow and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) don’t need extra help.

Steven Law, who runs the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, said that Democrats’ “target list is a lot like ours.”

“There were a few states they left off that we think could be competitive,” said Law, whose group has not yet placed its reservations. “But right now, we think the field of battle is already probably about 80 percent defined, and I think both sides see the battle lines as they are.”

Law also called Democrats’ $80 million reservation “pretty formidable” and said he remains concerned about the party’s fundraising disparity; Democratic incumbents have significantly outraised their challengers. "If Democrats stay ahead in the fundraising war, there’s a very real possibility they could gain the majority in the Senate," the NRSC wrote in a fundraising email this week.

Yet Republicans say things are far less rosy than Schumer makes it seem and are looking to add to their paper-thin majority ahead of a brutal 2020 map. They are laboring to target Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.); Manchin is polling well and Tester faces an opponent Democrats view as weak in state Auditor Matt Rosendale.

“Chuck Schumer wants this to be a narrow map. They want to make it about just a handful of states when the reality is, it’s a very big map,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Cory Gardner (R-Colo.).

Republicans point to improvements in the generic ballot and a strong economy as signs that they may face a better political environment than was expected months ago, particularly in states where Trump’s approval rating remains much higher than it is nationally.

But Democrats scoff at that optimism.

"We take nothing for granted," said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). "But we believe that we have narrowed the number of states from 10 to a lower number.”

Both DSCC and NRSC have held off on placing their fall reservations, though the NRSC placed a small buy in North Dakota starting in August and running through Election Day, according to data from Advertising Analytics. With no presidential campaign to crowd out the airwaves, both parties are waiting as long as possible before planting their battle flags.

“Are there enough resources to go around? And what’s the environment going to be like? Because in some of those states you need a decent environment,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), a member of GOP leadership. “There’s a lot of things that have to come together.”

Florida could end up being a boondoggle for Democrats, and Republicans point to Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s deep pockets as critical to opening up the rest of the map. Scott’s campaign has spent more than $10 million on ads since his April launch, and groups supporting his bid have spent millions more. Senate Majority PAC responded by spending $2.2 million late last month, but Republicans hope to force Democrats to invest enough in Florida to stretch them thin elsewhere. It can cost as much as $2 million to run ads in the states pricey media markets.

“My own prediction is that, come mid-September, national Democrats are going to hand Bill Nelson a canteen and a pistol and leave him for dead,” Law said.

J.B. Poersch, executive director of the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, said that Scott carries “political baggage” and that for national Republicans, “the thing they like most about Scott is his money.”

“2018 is going to be a much better year in Florida than 2010 or 2014. If Rick Scott thinks he can buy the election, it ain’t happening,” Schumer said.

In Tennessee, Democrats are upbeat about former Gov. Phil Bredesen, who won every county in the state when he last ran in 2006 and remains popular. Republicans argue Bredesen will go the way of other Democratic retreads, like Ted Strickland and Evan Bayh in 2016, both of whom lost by sizable margins. Trump visited Tennessee late last month to boost Rep. Marsha Blackburn and attack Bredesen, though Republicans acknowledge they will need a more sustained effort to drag down Bredesen’s favorability.

Some Republicans say the party should be more focused on winning seats in the heartland, and Wisconsin may be their best bet after Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) surprise win in 2016. Johnson is urging state Sen. Leah Vukmir or Kevin Nicholson to drop out of the August primary once polls show who is stronger against Baldwin, to avoid a protracted primary that would hobble the ultimate victor going into the general election.

The state party has run radio ads for Vukmir after she won its endorsement last month, and several internal polls show momentum in her favor.

“We need to settle on a candidate. There may be movement here that makes it so obvious,” Johnson said. “If there’s an accumulation of information, I would hope some candidate would say: It’s not my time and withdraw and then move forward.”

There’s less chatter about prioritizing beating Stabenow, Casey or Brown. Thune called those “sleeper” races.

Republicans are more intensely focused on states that Trump won handily, as well as protecting Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), whom Schumer says is in “huge amounts of trouble.” And Democrats share Republicans' belief that Nelson and Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota remain vulnerable.

Heitkamp said she is “doing well” but views herself as an underdog against Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).

“Anything other than an uphill climb is wrong. This is a state that identifies pretty heavily Republican,” Heitkamp said.

Republicans still think West Virginia and Montana can turn in their favor despite favorable numbers and dynamics for Manchin and Tester.

If two Democratic incumbents lose, the party essentially loses its path to the majority. But since Democrats started out the cycle with Republicans eyeing a filibuster-proof majority in 2019, they are feeling better than they have in months.

“We’re in the fight,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “We’ve got a real chance of taking back the Senate.”

