Jonathan Arnott, the Ukip MEP for North East England, is quietly excited by the opportunities that are opening up for his party as chaos unfolds across the political spectrum. Like many senior Ukip figures, he believes the referendum result and the ensuing crisis present the party with an unprecedented “market opportunity”.

In the unlikely setting of a Middlesbrough waffle and ice-cream parlour, the former maths teacher and regional chess champion explained his vision. “When I joined Ukip in 2001, it was a tiny party with very little funding,” he said. “It was derided, laughed at, ignored. There is a huge opportunity for a breakthrough now. There’s a hugely disaffected Labour vote.”

Ukip’s rise in the north-east has been rapid. In the 2010 general election it wasn’t seen as a serious threat; in 2015 it came second in 11 out of 29 constituencies. If a general election were to be called this year, the Labour candidates in a handful of them should be worried, Arnott said. He is heartened by the speed with which Labour’s base dissolved in Scotland. “When Labour collapses, it collapses completely.” The north-east had a strong vote to leave in the EU referendum.

Nationally, as Ukip’s leadership focuses on how to squeeze the maximum benefit from the shifting political horizon, there is both gleeful optimism about the emerging possibilities and simmering self-doubt about the party’s ability to reinvent itself.

There are rumblings about whether Nigel Farage has the energy to continue as leader, and whether in any case he is the right person to seize votes from the right, from those sensitive to any suggestion that the Conservative party is not going to deliver immigration controls, while simultaneously sweeping up votes from the left, from those who feel forgotten by Labour.

Internally, Ukip’s regional leaders are watching the actions of half a dozen men who formed an exultant horseshoe around Farage as he made his victory speech outside Westminster in the early hours of Friday 24 June. As he thanked supporters, he was flanked by some of his closest advisers, an exclusively male lineup that includes the Brexit movement’s biggest financial donor, the insurance multimillionaire Arron Banks, co-founder of the Ukip-backed Leave.EU campaign; property developer Richard Tice; party activist Chris Bruni-Lowe; Nathan Gill, the Ukip MEP for Wales; and Andy Wigmore, head of communications for Leave.EU.

Several in this group are talking about the creation of a new party, with a new leader, able to capitalise on the disenchantment with the political elite that they believe was contained within the leave vote. “We have the most extraordinary base with Leave.EU – 1 million people who are disaffected with the political establishment,” Wigmore said.



Early indications from Farage suggest that he may not have the appetite to continue as leader (although Farage has said this before), said Wigmore. “We are pretty sure that he wants a break,” he added. “He has said he needs a rest. He has achieved his life’s work; that was his purpose.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Arron Banks, co-founder of Ukip-backed Leave.EU. Photograph: Gareth Phillips/The Guardian

Banks told the Guardian last week that Ukip needed “to be reformed root and branch”. Tice, who is not a Ukip member, said: “The Labour party in Westminster hasn’t been listening to its members for a long time. Ukip has a huge opportunity, if it wants to take it.”

But several once-prominent Ukip figures said they doubted the party had the structure and funding in place to do well at a general election. “It’s absolutely not in a state to maximise on the success of the referendum,” one sacked official said, asking not to be identified. “There are no parliamentary candidates in place; the branches are in disarray. The focus has been totally on Nigel being top dog. It’s not a political party, it’s a personality cult.”

Steve Crowther, the party chairman, said its national executive committee would be meeting on Monday to discuss post-referendum strategy, and claimed the party was in good shape. He dismissed the suggestion that there should be a change of leadership. “We have the great advantage that we are, at this moment, 100% united behind [our] leader, with a very clear and stable policy position,” he said.

Matthew Goodwin, the co-author of Revolt on the Right, which analyses Ukip’s rise, said the party’s future would hinge on the outcome of the negotiations with the EU. “The vote for Brexit was primarily driven by public concerns over free movement and migration,” he said. “Consequently, should Conservative Eurosceptics fail to deliver restrictions on free movement, then it would be the equivalent of pouring gasoline over the Ukip fire.

“Much now depends on whether the Labour movement can push itself into difficult territory on national identity, immigration and belonging – issues on which social democrats always struggle.”

On a side street in Middlesbrough, Arnott was joined as he had his picture taken by Danielle and Amanda, passers-by who didn’t want to give their surnames, who said they didn’t get around to voting because they never vote, but who were pleased by the result. “Immigration – it’s wrong and they are taking over,” said Amanda, 41, who doesn’t work. “They come over here, playing poor and they have more money than us.” Danielle, 32, added: “It’s our country, isn’t it?”

Patrick Broderick, an actor who gives drama workshops in local schools and is from Ireland, stopped to say he had been abused in the street after the referendum. Someone shouted: “Go back home, you Irish bastard,” when they heard his accent. “It has been 10 years since that last happened,” he said. “I blame Farage. The worst thing is that there is a market for Ukip in the area.”

Immigration is not a huge issue in Middles­brough or the north-east; net immigration in the town in the 12 months to June 2015 was just 800, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. Total net migration to the north-east, which has a population of 2.6 million, was 6,361 in the same period (for comparison, the London borough of Camden, which has a population of 234,000, had net migration of 7,504 over the same period).

Facebook Twitter Pinterest There are talks around how much longer Nigel Farage will be leader of Ukip. Photograph: Belga/Zuma/Rex Shutterstock

“Ukip talks about immigration less in the north-east than anywhere else in the country,” Arnott said, adding that the real issue in his area is rising unemployment, which at 7.5% is higher than the national average of 5%. But he continues to campaign on the issue of wage compression caused by EU migration.

Like most Ukip figures, Arnott is unable to outline a clear set of Ukip post-Brexit policies, stressing that in the short term the party’s role will be to keep a check on Brexit implementation. His ambitions for the region are curtailed by the shortage of Ukip funding in the area. “We have always punched above our weight,” he admitted. “If someone gave us some money in the north-east, we could do an awful lot with it.” On a personal level, he isn’t worried about losing his €8,000-a-month (£6,700) salary as an MEP. “Money is not the main thing.”

Middlesbrough’s Labour MP, Andy McDonald, said although Ukip came second in a number of seats here, they were a long way behind. He said Labour should be concerned about the growing Ukip vote, which was an expression of unhappiness, but the fear around migration was out of proportion to the relatively low net migration figures in the area.

“I don’t think we need to grab on to the clarion call around migration,” McDonald said. “It is a worry – we can’t be complacent – but I think it will subside and good sense will prevail.”