POLITICO Playbook: Moderate Dems take a leap on impeachment Presented by Amazon

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a freshman Democrat who flipped a battleground Republican seat, was one of a handful of moderate Democrats who said Monday they will vote to impeach President Donald Trump. | Carlos Osorio/AP Photo

DRIVING THE DAY

THIS HOUSE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY was built in places like Richmond, Va., Salt Lake City and Charleston, S.C. It was in these traditional Republican strongholds that voters who put DONALD TRUMP in the White House decided they would also send a Democrat to Washington to represent them after a campaign that was dominated by a mix of kitchen-table issues, dashed with promises to keep an unusual White House in check.

AND NOW, NEARLY ALL OF THOSE freshmen -- Speaker NANCY PELOSI’S majority makers -- will vote to remove the president from office, which can be viewed as either the type of bold behavior for which they were sent to Washington, or a career-ending political miscalculation.

IN 2009 AND 2010, DEMOCRATS MADE A SIMILAR BET: that voters in the South and Midwest would reward them for passing bills to cap and trade carbon emissions and revamp the nation’s health insurance laws. Instead, those voters tossed Democrats out of office, and handed the speaker’s gavel to the GOP.

ON MONDAY, HOUSE DEMOCRATS began to test this proposition once again when Joe Cunningham of South Carolina (R+10), Ben McAdams of Utah (R+13), Elissa Slotkin of Michigan (R+4), Abigail Spanburger (R+6) and Elaine Luria of Virginia (R+3), and Andy Kim of New Jersey (R+2) all said they would vote to remove TRUMP. Early this morning, New York Rep. ANTHONY BRINDISI (R+6) said he would vote to impeach. (Syracuse Post-Standard interview)

THERE ARE A FEW WAYS TO LOOK AT THIS. If you take these lawmakers at their word, they are so disgusted with TRUMP’S behavior that they need to vote to remove him from office. It’s their duty. And perhaps so.

BUT CONGRESS is a political institution, where even matters of conscience are judged for their political wisdom. First of all, take note that the announcements all came within hours of each other -- a sign of unity among a group of vulnerable politicians. They’re leaping together.

THE OVERWHELMING QUESTION IS: Do these Trump voters have the same conviction about impeachment that House Democrats do, or do they view it as a worthless, overtly political exercise? Members of Congress, at times, get so enmeshed in an issue in the Capitol that they lose sight of what their constituents feel. Is impeachment a case of that, or do voters in these Trump-leaning districts really want Congress to throw the president out of office?

REPUBLICAN POLITICAL ENTITIES ARE READY TO POUNCE. DAN CONSTON, the president of the American Action Network and Congressional Leadership fund, has already spent $8.5 million on targeting Democrats on impeachment, and will spend millions more. “This is the ultimate thumbing-their-nose-at-voters moment. In the face of continued and growing opposition in their districts, these members will have to answer to their constituents, who overwhelmingly support President Trump,” he said. “The vote they’ll be most remembered for is to impeach the president, which most voters believe is politically motivated and the absolute wrong thing to do just 10 months before voters decide a national election.”

HERE’S SOME DATA TO CONSIDER: A QUINNIPIAC POLL OUT MONDAY had Trump’s approval rating at 43%, the highest the poll has ever recorded. And 45% of voters say TRUMP should be impeached. Another poll, CNN’s, shows support for impeachment and removal declining by 5 percentage points since mid-November. 538’s impeachment tracker

WHO ELSE TO WATCH FOR: Maine Rep. Jared Golden, Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens, Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood, New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Oklahoma Rep. Kendra Horn.

MINNESOTA REP. COLLIN PETERSON is expected to vote no -- he said he’s leaning in that direction. He also said this: “‘I’m staying in the party, in spite of some of the stuff that’s going on that I don’t agree with, I am not going [to] switch parties at this stage of my career,’ he told KFGO News and Views host Joel Heitkamp. ‘There have been overtures by the highest levels of the Republican party in the last couple weeks to ask if I would consider it and I told them no,’ he added.”

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BEHIND THE SCENES … JOHN BRESNAHAN and HEATHER CAYGLE: “How Trump and McCarthy wooed Jeff Van Drew to switch parties”: “Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), a key Trump ally, told the freshman from New Jersey that Trump would like to see him become a Republican, according to several sources familiar with the conversation. …

“Behind the scenes, former New Jersey GOP Gov. Chris Christie spoke to Van Drew about switching parties, said GOP sources. Kellyanne Conway, a top White House adviser who hails from that district, also sought a meeting with the congressman on an unrelated issue, which Van Drew’s aides suspected was a pretense for her to lobby him to switch parties. The meeting never happened, but it was clear the White House was upping the pressure on Van Drew.” POLITICO

… SPEAKING OF WHAT THE VOTERS WANT: THE HOUSE is going to vote on a bill today to keep government funded through September 2020, and change a host of unrelated policies. The bill came out Monday. It will get a vote tonight. The number of issues handled in this bill is stunning. It contains major changes in health care policy, extends flood insurance, reauthorizes the Export-Import Bank for seven years, extends the terrorism insurance program and reauthorizes money to rebuild the Kennedy Center, and so much more.

AND GUESS WHAT: LATE MONDAY NIGHT, the House decided to pair a massive package of tax extenders with this bill. More from WSJ’s Rich Rubin on the details of the deal

LET’S PUT IT THIS WAY: If you are a company or an entity with a legislative priority, and you couldn’t get it in this year-end package, call your lobbyist for a chat. Or better yet, look for a new one.

MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WILL BE FACED WITH a decision on voting to fund 12 agencies, and extend all of these programs with one vote today, with one day of review before leaving town for the month.

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OK, SCHUMER -- “Republicans scoff at Chuck Schumer’s impeachment trial proposal,” by Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: “Chuck Schumer is trying to woo independent-minded Republicans to back his framework for an impeachment trial. But Susan Collins isn’t a fan of his tactics. In an interview Monday, the Maine Republican criticized the Senate minority leader for widely publicizing his opening offer before Schumer had even sat down with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

“‘I was surprised that he didn’t first sit down with the Senate majority leader and discuss his proposals rather than doing a letter that he released to the press,’ Collins said. ‘The more constructive way would have been for him to sit down with Sen. McConnell.’” POLITICO

-- WSJ’S MICHAEL BENDER and LINDSEY WISE: “GOP Senators Seek Quick Acquittal for Trump. The President Wants More”: “Mr. Trump has publicly signaled his openness to a short trial, and White House aides are pitching him on the idea that a quick acquittal would be its own form of vindication. Privately, though, he has said he wants not just a quick process, but also the ability to call a list of witnesses. It isn’t clear how Mr. McConnell could deliver both of those things.”

Good Tuesday morning.

PALM BEACH POST: “The president … is expected to spend at least two weeks at Mar-a-Lago with his family for the holidays. Trump made the announcement in a tweet on Dec. 12 in which he also referred to his private club as ‘The Southern White House.’

“The White House has not confirmed the dates of Trump’s trip. He is traveling to Battle Creek, Michigan, on Wednesday - the day the House is scheduled to vote on his impeachment. On Thursday, Democrats have a tentative plan to vote on the trade deal President Trump negotiated with Mexico and Canada to replace NAFTA - leaving Friday open for possible travel to Palm Beach. A Federal Aviation Advisory issued Monday suggests the president will arrive that day.”

PBS NEWSHOUR/POLITICO DEBATE COVERAGE … OUR TEAM has a ton of strong stories running in conjunction with the Thursday debate. ALSO: Check out the debate hub.

POST-OBAMA WORLD … LAURA BARRÓN-LÓPEZ: “‘Racism permeates everything’: Running as a black candidate after Obama”: “When Kamala Harris dropped out two weeks ago, it hit Cory Booker hard.

“She may have been his rival in the race for the Democratic nomination, but her exit represented something bigger. If Harris — a friend of Booker’s and the only black woman in the race, who began her campaign with such promise — couldn’t make it to Iowa, what did it mean for him, a black man still in the fight but unable to qualify for the Democratic debate?

“At the heart of Booker’s dilemma is a larger question about the Democratic Party and American politics: What if Barack Obama was not just the first, but the only person who is not a white man to occupy the White House for decades to come?

“‘That’s a very real fear,’ said Bakari Sellers, a prominent South Carolina Democrat who supported Harris’ bid. It feels like the country has taken a giant step backwards, he said. ‘It’s hard to answer the question of, how did you go from Barack Obama to Donald Trump?’ Harris’ downfall, Booker’s struggles and Julián Castro’s single-digit polling have caused Democrats across the party, and especially people of color, to ask what’s led the party to this juncture, where all the frontrunners are white, and most of them are male and in their 70s.

“In July, Democrats had the most diverse debate stage in history. Five months later, all the participants are white except for Andrew Yang, who cleared the bar by a single percentage point in one poll on the final day to qualify.” POLITICO

POLITICS … RYAN HEATH: “Is Pete Buttigieg the Next Emmanuel Macron?”

-- EUGENE DANIELS and BEATRICE JIN: “Three reasons why the Democrats’ Blue Wall crumbled: Here’s what the party is doing in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to fix it.”

POLICY … BIANCA QUILANTAN: “The potential disaster of free community college”

LOCAL … CHRIS CADELAGO in Los Angeles: “Bloomberg confronts California’s curse of the rich”

SPECIAL EDITION OF ‘NERDCAST’: CARRIE BUDOFF BROWN and PBS NewsHour’s executive producer SARA JUST talk about what it takes to pull off a debate.

L.A. TIMES: “The fate of L.A.’s Democratic presidential debate hinges on a bargaining session,” by Matt Pearce: “It’s not often that a small group of food-service workers can dream of exercising power over an American political party. But this week, Los Angeles is getting to see one of those moments.

“A group of about 150 unionized workers at Loyola Marymount University are headed to a contract bargaining session Tuesday that could determine whether this week’s Democratic presidential debate will happen at the private university’s west side campus.

“Neither the Democratic Party nor the university itself is directly involved in the dispute, which is between a campus food-services contractor, Sodexo, and Unite Here, a powerful service-workers union.

“Last week, Democratic candidates handed the workers a bargaining chip by announcing they would not cross Unite Here Local 11’s planned picket line at the school, effectively boycotting the televised debate Thursday if the labor dispute is not resolved. The Democratic National Committee has not disclosed whether it is looking for another location.”

-- MICHAEL BENNET will announce today that he needs to raise $700,000 by Jan. 16 to compete in New Hampshire. Bennet will air this ad if he can hit the new goal. The campaign is releasing a “New Hampshire Investment Strategy” memo.

TRUMP’S TUESDAY -- The president and first lady Melania Trump will participate in the arrival of Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales and his wife, Patricia Marroquín, at 1:45 p.m. in the South Portico. The four of them will participate in a meeting in the Oval Office at 1:55 p.m. Trump and Morales will have an expanded bilateral meeting at 2:05 p.m. in the Oval Office. Trump and the first lady will participate in a Christmas reception at 4:15 p.m. in the Grand Foyer.

PLAYBOOK READS

FEATURED VIDEO: Here's how Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders approach the gun debate, by Mary Newman

DAILY RUDY -- “Giuliani Provides Details of What Trump Knew About Ambassador’s Removal,” by NYT’s Ken Vogel: “Rudolph W. Giuliani said on Monday that he provided President Trump with detailed information this year about how the United States ambassador to Ukraine was, in Mr. Giuliani’s view, impeding investigations that could benefit Mr. Trump, setting in motion the ambassador’s recall from her post.

“In an interview, Mr. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, described how he passed along to Mr. Trump ‘a couple of times’ accounts about how the ambassador, Marie L. Yovanovitch, had frustrated efforts that could be politically helpful to Mr. Trump. They included investigations involving former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Ukrainians who disseminated documents that damaged Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign.

“The president in turn connected Mr. Giuliani with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who asked for more information, Mr. Giuliani said. Within weeks, Ms. Yovanovitch was recalled as ambassador at the end of April and was told that Mr. Trump had lost trust in her.” NYT

WAPO’S JOSH ROGIN: “The United States is about to sanction Assad, Russia and Iran for Syrian war crimes”: “More than three years after it was first introduced, landmark legislation that would provide for U.S. sanctions against the Assad regime, Russia and Iran for past and ongoing war crimes in Syria is on the verge of finally passing in Congress. Expected to become law, the ‘Caesar Bill’ could offer not only for some justice and accountability for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s victims — it could also give the United States leverage in seeking a political solution to the Syrian war.

“President Trump is expected to sign the National Defense Authorization Act of 2020 after Congress passes it, as early as this week. With bipartisan and bicameral agreement, Congress added to it the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, which authorizes sanctions on top Syrian government officials, military leaders and anyone else responsible for more than eight years of Assad’s mass atrocities, war crimes against innocent civilians and crimes against humanity.

“The bill also would extend sanctions to several major sectors of Syria’s state-driven economy and to any government or private entity that aids Syria’s military or contributes to the reconstruction of Syria — until there’s accountability and justice for Assad’s victims.” WaPo

-- “Boeing will halt 737 Max production in January as FAA reviews software fix,” by WaPo’s Jonathan O’Connell and Aaron Gregg

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POLITIFACT’S “Lie of the Year 2019: Donald Trump’s claim whistleblower got Ukraine call ‘almost completely wrong’”: “Since the Sept. 26 release of the whistleblower complaint about his call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump has insisted more than 80 times that the whistleblower’s account is fake, fraudulent, incorrect, ‘total fiction,’ ‘made up,’ and ‘sooo wrong.’ … Despite what Trump claims, the whistleblower got the call ‘almost completely’ right.”

-- WAPO’S GLENN KESSLER: “Trump said more false or misleading claims in 2019 than he did in 2017 and 2018 combined.” WaPo Fact Checker’s year-end update

VALLEY TALK -- “Instagram hides false content behind warnings, except for politicians,” by TechCrunch’s Josh Constine: “Instagram is giving politicians the same free rein to spread misinformation as its parent company Facebook. Instagram is expanding its limited fact-checking test in the U.S. from May and will now work with 45 third-party organizations to assess the truthfulness of photo and video content on its app. Material rated as false will be hidden from the Explore and hashtag pages, and covered with an interstitial warning blocking the content in the feed or Stories until users tap again to see the post. …

“One group that’s exempt from the fact checking, though, is politicians. Their original content on Instagram, including ads, will not be sent for fact checks, even if it’s blatantly inaccurate. This aligns with Facebook’s policy that’s received plenty of backlash from critics, including TechCrunch, who say it could let candidates smear their rivals, stoke polarization and raise money through lies. Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri has maintained that banning political ads could hurt challenger candidates in need of promotion, and that it would be tough to draw the lines between political and issue ads.” TechCrunch

MEDIAWATCH -- Elisabeth Bumiller is becoming assistant managing editor at the NYT, in addition to her current role as Washington bureau chief. SPOTTED at the bureau party at her house this weekend, where Joe Kahn and Matt Purdy announced her new role: Helene Cooper, Maggie Haberman, Katie Benner, Edward Wong, Rebecca Blumenstein, and Peter Baker and Susan Glasser. NYT announcement

-- NYT’s Scott Shane is retiring. “As some kind Twitter folk have noticed, I'm retiring from the NYT at year’s end to do some teaching, writing and who knows what. I've had 15 terrific years at the Times, thanks to unmatched editors and astonishing colleagues. And 40 years in journalism, a good round number,” he tweets.

-- “Vox Media to cut hundreds of freelance jobs ahead of changes in California gig economy laws,” by CNBC’s Ari Levy and Alex Sherman

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

SPOTTED: Susan Rice in conversation with director Lauren Greenfield after a screening of her new Imelda Marcos documentary, “The Kingmaker,” at Landmark E Street Cinema on Monday night.

SPOTTED at the 75th-anniversary Battle of the Bulge commemoration and wreath presentation hosted by Friends of the National World War II Memorial on Monday morning: Alex Kershaw, Lt. Gen. Andrew Poppas, George Arnstein, Christophe Payot, Belgian Brig. Gen. Georges Franchomme, Canadian Col. Patrick Robichaud, French Maj. Adrien Poirot, Véronique Dockendorf and British Cmdr. Jim Morley.

HOLIDAY PARTY CIRCUIT -- SPOTTED at progressive comms firm Feldman Strategies’ party Monday night at 801 Bar: Andrew Feldman, Dan Merica, Annie Linskey, Max Greenwood, James Hohmann, Alice Miranda Ollstein, Ben Kamisar, Jon Easley, Julia Manchester, Jessica Grose, Colin Rogero, Miguel Elias, Sean Sinclair, Andrew Crook, Andrew DeStefano, Taylor Garland, Anthony Robinson, Carolyn DeWitt, Geoff Burgan and Alex Hoffman. Pic

TRANSITIONS -- Eric “Olly” Oehlerich and Michael “Mick” Mulroy have started the Lobo Institute, a company focused on studying global conflicts and helping those most adversely affected. Oehlerich is a retired Navy SEAL commander, and Mulroy most recently was deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the Middle East. Both serve on the board of Grassroots Reconciliation Group, are fellows at the Middle East Institute and are ABC News contributors. …

… Adjoa Adofo Kyerematen is now senior adviser for public affairs and communications at CMS’ Innovation Center. She previously was director of communications at the Better Medicare Alliance. … Chris Mulcahey will be a legislative aide for the Minnesota House Republican Caucus. He is currently press secretary and legislative assistant to Rep. Glenn “G.T.” Thompson (R-Pa.).

ENGAGED -- Peter Murray, special assistant for advance in Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao’s office, proposed to Rachel Chasteen, media manager at Two Men and a Truck, at the Parker House in his native Boston on Friday.

WEDDING -- Lyndsey Fifield, social media manager for the Heritage Foundation and co-host of the “LadyBrains” podcast, and Matthew Collins, an international strategist for Northrop Grumman aerospace and Marine Corps veteran, got married Nov. 6 on the Zambezi River in Mosi-oa-Tunya National Park in Zambia -- by themselves, with many animals. They’re now halfway through a “wedding tour” around the world to visit family and friends. They met at a happy hour in 2018 for friends of various veteran service organizations. Pic -- with zebras -- by Sarah Kerr

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Kelli Arena, chief of strategic communications at the NSA and a CNN alum. A fun fact about her: “As any good IC employee knows, if you admit it, you’re no longer subject to blackmail so I’ll admit … I play a mean conga drum.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Pope Francis is 83 … Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) is 46 … Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-N.J.) is 61 … RNC co-chair Tommy Hicks Jr. (h/t Cassie Smedile) … Chelsea Manning is 32 … Chris Matthews is 74 … Eli Pariser, co-founder of Upworthy and MoveOn … Randall Gerard, managing director at Cogent Strategies … Carol Thompson O’Connell … Elaine Povich … Scott Sadler … former Rep. Steve Knight (R-Calif.), who’s running again, is 53 … former Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Minn.) is 76 … Shannon Russell, federal strategy adviser for government affairs at AARP … Cyrus Krohn … POLITICO’s Sabrina Rodríguez and Allan James Vestal … Jessica Stone … Daniel Ensign of Mike Bloomberg’s campaign …

… Noah Rothman, associate editor at Commentary and MSNBC/NBC contributor, is 38 … Emma Brereton … Patrick Paolini, VP and general manager of WTTG FOX 5 DC … Carlson Teboh … Tom Quinn of Venable … Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is 77 … Sarah Doolin Roy … Emma Vaughn … Olivia Hnat ... Aryeh Bourkoff is 47 ... Kevin Wardally … Sheppie and Mike Abramowitz ... Michelle Morgan ... Edwena Johnson ... Judy Weiss ... Maja Suslin ... Doug Landry ... Taylor Foy ... Bob Witeck ... Clare Gannon ... former Wisconsin Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson is 86 … Bailey Childers ... Jacqueline Sikoff of Princeton University’s communications and public affairs office

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