Less than a week ago, Donald Trump vowed to slap escalating tariffs on Mexico beginning June 10, unless one of our largest trading partners stops the flow of undocumented immigrants across the border, a threat that was swiftly condemned as “disastrous,” “baffling,” and “colossal blunder.” The idea for the punitive measures was reportedly criticized by the president’s advisers who know anything about trade, but pushed by chief West Wing xenophobe Stephen Miller, which is not surprising given that they could only come from the mind of a man whose happiness derives from punishing migrant children. According to analysis from Texas-based consulting firm Perryman Group, the Mexico tariffs stand to erase more than $41 billion from U.S. GDP and $24.6 billion in income annually, while job losses could hit a staggering 406,000; combined with the levies on China, international trade will go from 3.3 percent in 2018 to 0.2 percent, according to analysis by Dutch bank ING. And of course they’ll ding Mexico’s economy, causing more people to cross the border for jobs in the U.S.—the opposite of Trump’s intended effect. The question now is: Will they actually happen?

Wall Street believes anything is possible and that things could go either way, depending on whether the president is feeling cranky. Chris Krueger, a Cowen analyst, wrote in a report obtained by Bloomberg that the situation is “very fluid and entirely dependent on Trump’s mood on Sunday,” but regardless he’s already done “real and lasting damage” when it comes to negotiations with China and other countries. “Who wants to sign deals…only to be knee-capped weeks later with arbitrary tariff threats,” he asked. Lori Calvasina, an analyst at RBC agreed, noting that that with someone as unhinged as Trump, “we’ve learned…that it pays to be prepared for the worst, unthinkable outcomes.” AGF Investments’Greg Valliere, speaking for all of us, wondered “What’s [Trump’s] objective” given that he “can’t possibly think that the flood of immigrants will be reduced to zero in one month,” adding that, considering Trump makes major policy decision based on not just his mood but what the gang at Fox & Friends is telling him, “the outcome won’t be clear until Monday—if then.”

On Thursday after the first day of talks between Mexican and U.S. officials broke up without any resolution, negotiators from both sides reportedly discussed “the outlines of a deal that would dramatically increase Mexico’s immigration enforcement efforts and give the United States far more latitude to deport Central Americans seeking asylum.” Officials from both sides cautioned that said deal is far from final and that Trump, obviously, may not accept it, despite the fact that it would involve mass deportations and likely lower the number of violence-fleeing individuals granted asylum, at least temporarily sating the bloodthirsty appetite of Miller & company.