The Liberals appear to be benefitting from a low-key NDP campaign and voter concerns about a Progressive Conservative plan to cut 100,000 public service jobs, according to a new poll.

In the latest Forum Research survey, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals lead with 41 per cent to 34 per cent for Tim Hudak’s Conservatives, and 20 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats. The Greens, led by Mike Schreiner, have 4 per cent.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said challenges lay ahead for the Tories and the NDP in the lead up to the June 12 election.

“The NDP . . . campaign has just been slow to launch. There is a bit of a price to pay . . . for not announcing their platform yet,” Bozinoff said Wednesday.

In Toronto, for example, where the NDP holds five seats, support has dipped to 14 per cent. That compares with 51 per cent for the Liberals, who have 17 city seats, and 33 per cent for the Tories, who have one.

Compounding the New Democrats’ dilemma is a left-leaning Liberal Party that appeals to traditional progressive voters and a right-wing PC platform that could lead to anti-Hudak “strategic voting,” the pollster said.

“With the Tories . . . they haven’t, for some people, explained the 100,000 jobs and the million jobs,” he said, referring to the 100,000 jobs Hudak plans to eliminate from the broader public sector over four years in order to create 1 million private-sector jobs in eight years.

“That’s 100,000 people and they all have spouses and they all have parents and they all have friends so it takes time for this to percolate through.”

In last week’s poll, 62 per cent disapproved of the proposed cuts while 26 per cent approved and 11 per cent weren’t sure. Similarly, 63 per cent doubted 1 million jobs could be generated while 26 per cent believe they would and 11 per cent didn’t know.

Using interactive voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed 1,136 people across Ontario on Tuesday and results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Last week’s Forum poll found the Liberals with 38 per cent, the Tories with 35 per cent, the NDP with 21 per cent, and the Greens with 5 per cent.

“I know it looks like a big jump, but it’s just one point drifting from the other parties,” said Bozinoff, noting the Liberals siphoned support from their three rivals.

In a similar survey May 2, the Tories were at 38 per cent, the Liberals 33 per cent, the NDP 22 per cent, and the Greens at 6 per cent.

By extrapolating the latest poll’s results, Bozinoff projected the Liberals would win a majority of 63 seats in the 107-member legislature to 31 for the Conservatives and 13 for the NDP.

At dissolution, the minority Grits held 48 seats, including Speaker Dave Levac, the Tories had 37, the NDP 21, and there was one vacancy.

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Wynne’s personal approval was steady at 38 per cent again this week as was Horwath at 35 per cent, while Hudak went up slightly to 25 per cent from 23 per cent.

The poll is weighted statistically by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.

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