Blame it on greedy corporate executives who care more about juicing earnings reports than paying a decent wage. Blame it on deregulation. Blame it on robot arms replacing human arms, or Shenzhen replacing Detroit, or health care benefits replacing wages. Choose your own culprit, but the outcome is the same: The middle class has been thoroughly hollowed out. Low-paying jobs in food service and home health aides are growing. High-paying jobs in finance and management are growing. But the middle class that was once our core now resembles a valley.



The Future of the Middle Class

No article published in 2011 is going to perfectly forecast the job economy of 2021. But one prediction feels safe: Health care will consume a larger and larger share of the labor force for three reasons.

First, the graying of America will increase demand for medicine and treatment for seniors. Second, an outsized portion of our research and development (up to a third, according to economist Mike Mandel) already goes to biosciences and medicine. That's key, because today's investment presages tomorrow's growing industries.

Third, U.S. subsidies for health care -- from tax-free employer insurance to generous Medicare coverage -- automatically inflates the demand for health services. That's bad for middle class consumers facing out-of-control prices, but it's good for middle class job seekers who are willing to work in health care. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, six of the top eight jobs with the fastest projected growth are in the health care or medical science industries. Three of the top five jobs with the largest projected growth are in health care, as well.

But just as few journalists in the early 1990s predicted that this thing called "internet" would transform their decade, any projection of the next decade's job growth has to glimpse into the unseen potential of the U.S. economy. What will be the next surprising engine of growth?

Follow the president's words, and you might choose green energy. Demand for energy will explode in the 21st century, as China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia join the global middle class, buy cars and light suburban homes. At the same time, fossil fuels are scarce and dirty. The economies that create, license, build and monitor cheap and clean alternative technologies will thrive in the 21st century. A green energy economy would include manufacturers, sales people, on-site installation, IT personnel, and more positions that match middle class skills.

Follow the money, and you'd put your bet on bioscience. The United States is the world leader in bioscience R&D funding, providing 70 percent of the developed world's health and science research investment. Although drug production has fallen by half in the last 15 years, innovation experts like Mandel bet that we've seen a pause rather than a full stop in the biotech revolution.