Western reactions to events in Iran this week have been as fascinating to watch as the events themselves. It’s true that the picture is complex. But the hesitancy on view everywhere, and the lack of publicly supportive messages to protesters, are a sign of our times. It’s as if any groundswell of popular aspirations now raises suspicion. In the aftermath of the Arab spring, Donald Trump and fake news, we seem to have become disillusioned about grassroots revolts.

What might once have been hailed as a democratic revolution now appears blurry. An outpouring of anger against a corrupt regime and its diversion of resources into military adventures is met more with scepticism than hope. There are instant suggestions of a CIA-led plot, or an Israeli plan.

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The trouble is that authoritarian regimes stand to gain from such conspiracy theories. Speculation about external forces fostering unrest offers autocrats an immediate diversion from the question of why people are revolting.

Thirty years ago, the American political scientist Gene Sharp watched Burmese monks rise up against the military junta. He went on to write the rulebook of non-violent revolution, From Dictatorship to Democracy, which has served as a model for protesters from Serbia to Egypt. There was a time when western public opinion applauded such developments. No longer, it seems. We feel burned: look at what’s become of Egypt since we cheered President Mubarak’s overthrow in 2011. Even Myanmar’s fight for freedom has become painful to recall, with Aung San Suu Kyi having fallen off our heroes’ list following the Rohingya massacres.

Reality is always more complicated than political theory, of course. That Trump has tweeted in support of Iranian protesters serves as a kind of disqualification in itself. But perhaps we should also stop and think about the cynicism or numbness that seems to have gripped us.

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To be sure, there’s much we don’t know about Iran, where independent media coverage is hard to come by. But there is also much we do know. Last month’s announcement that the next budget would cut subsidies that were lifelines to low-income households served as a trigger. In provincial towns, crowds gathered to vent frustration against inflation and a general sense of injustice. Some dubbed this the “egg revolution” because the price of basic foods was set to spike. Now, full-on repression has been unleashed.

Iran matters a lot. Its weight in the Middle East can hardly be overestimated. Alongside Russia, it has played a key role in crushing opposition to dictatorship in Syria. The horror of Syria’s killing fields – with an estimated half a million deaths – was a key reason for the massive refugee movement that has upended European politics. Iran is a topic the US political scene can easily go berserk over (we’ve known that since 1979), but Europe is on the Middle East’s doorstep. We surely have an interest in change.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A pro-government rally in Tehran on Friday. Photograph: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Resignation and confusion are exactly what autocracies around the world want from democratic countries. It’s also what their disinformation seeks to entrench. By being immune to enthusiasm when people rise up, we squander the values we claim to want to defend.

True, this may not be a repetition of the 2009 Iranian opposition Green movement, which lasted months and was largely led by educated, urban elites. But is it only when English- speaking groups take to the streets that we should show support? Not everyone has read Gene Sharp’s book. The downtrodden don’t always use codes we can easily relate to. But that makes their grievances no less real, their demands no less legitimate.

In 2009, unlike Trump today, Barack Obama refrained from showing any interest in Iranian people power. He was obsessed with pulling off a nuclear deal with the regime – an objective that also went a long way to explaining his lack of action over Syria. Many in the Arab and Muslim world saw this as a massive let-down.

By contrast, on 11 February 2011, the day Mubarak was toppled, Obama spoke of “the power of human dignity” that can “never be denied”. “We can’t help but hear the echoes of history – echoes from Germans tearing down a wall, Indonesian students taking to the streets, Gandhi leading his people down the path of justice,” he said.

Who dares wax lyrical about Iranian democratic aspirations these days? It took Federica Mogherini, the EU foreign policy head, a full five days after the Iranian protests had started to say: “Human rights have always been a core issue of our relationship with Iran.” Well, then. Of course, there are other issues at stake, such as preserving the nuclear deal Trump wants to tear up.

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But what about the rest of us watching? Is it enough to sit back? Can we avert our gaze when the Iranian regime helps massacre populations in Syria’s eastern Ghouta district? Has Saudi behaviour in Yemen drained our capacity for indignation?

Our mental withdrawal may be precisely what spells more, not less, trouble down the line. The shrinking of our minds, and the knee-jerk reactions that can come with the necessary criticism of Trump, risk becoming an opt-out. Iranians deserve better.

• Natalie Nougayrède is a Guardian columnist