Earlier this year, Microsoft founder Bill Gates threw his support behind a controversial policy: a robot tax. As workers in many sectors are replaced by machines, the government is losing huge amounts of income tax revenue. Taxing the companies that employ robots, Gates reasoned, could help slow the pace of automation, and the revenue could be used to retrain employees.

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Sergio Rebelo, a finance professor at the Kellogg School, had serious doubts when he heard Gates’s argument. For decades, economists have known that taxing so-called “intermediate goods”—goods that are used to make other goods, like the bricks used to build a house, or the robots used to manufacture cars—can make it harder for suppliers to create and sell their products. “When you do that, you reduce the level of production in the economy,” Rebelo says. Nonetheless, Rebelo thought the robot tax made for a compelling research topic. So he teamed up with Joao Guerreiro, a graduate student at Northwestern, and Pedro Teles of Universidade Católica Portuguesa. They figured their study would confirm what prior research suggested: that a robot tax created more problems than it solved. “Maybe there would not even be a paper to write,” Rebelo says. So it was quite a surprise when they found they were wrong—that a robot tax could be part of a policy agenda that staved off income inequality and improved the economy overall.

“Because I can be replaced by a machine, my opportunities are worse and worse.”

In fact, the study suggests, if robots continue displacing people without any policy intervention, those displaced might suffer large decreases in income, creating a potentially large rise in income inequality. At the same time, automation produces a large increase in total income. “This is not a fanciful scenario,” Rebelo warns. “It’s already happening.” “A Very, Very Tough Scenario” Today, more and more work is being automated, without much of a safety net for the people whose jobs evaporate. The authors first wanted to understand how the economy will continue to evolve on its current path. They imagined an economy in which half of the labor force was engaged in what economists call “routine” work—any job consisting of programmable tasks that can be automated (such as workers on an assembly line, or at a call center where a script is followed). The other half of the labor force did nonroutine work that cannot be automated (such as firefighters or scientists.) The researchers used this model to see how incomes of the two groups would change as machines grew ever cheaper. The upshot: “It’s a very, very tough scenario for routine workers,” Rebelo says. Many people assume that if automation is allowed to continue unchecked, then eventually machines will take over all of the routine work in the economy. But the researchers found that routine laborers will likely continue working—and their circumstances will get worse. “If I’m a routine worker, I’m going to have to put food on the table for my family,” Rebelo explains. So over time, as machines become cheaper and more efficient, routine workers will have no choice but to accept lower and lower wages so they can compete with the robots. “Because I can be replaced by a machine, my opportunities are worse and worse,” he says. Meanwhile, the other half of the workers prosper. Those who cannot be replaced by robots are able to use machines to their advantage, allowing them to work more efficiently, which increases their incomes. For example, a doctor using a robot to help complete surgeries can treat more patients in a day than a robot-less doctor. Thus, the gap between rich and poor stretches ever wider. However, the model also reveals that under the present system, robots will never entirely replace routine human labor. Eventually, machines will reach a point where they cannot get any cheaper, and wages for routine workers will bottom out at the same level. This scenario is problematic not only for routine laborers (who will have to work for peanuts), but also for nonroutine workers, since the overall economy is producing less output than it would if everything routine could be automated.

Could a tax on robots prevent this dystopian future?