In today’s politics news: tight gubernatorial race in Georgia could go to a December runoff and Don Jr hits the trail and fires up Republican base

Hello, I’m Ben Jacobs with the latest from Washington and beyond … and the penultimate Midterms Minute. If you still want to receive the latest news from the Guardian after Wednesday, sign up for our new US morning briefing.

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High stakes for Nebraska progressive

Democrat Kara Eastman pulled out an upset in the primary for Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. She beat former congressman Brad Ashford in a swing district that he previously represented by running hard to the left. If she wins on Tuesday, progressive groups will hail her victory and if she loses, it will be used as an example of what happens if Democrats go too far to the left in moderate areas.

So will she win? It is an uphill battle. A poll from a month ago gives incumbent Republican Don Bacon a 51%-42% lead and Cook Political Report currently classifies it as Lean Republican.

Georgia going to overtime?

The tight gubernatorial race between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp could go to a December runoff. Georgia law requires the winning candidate to get a majority of the vote and the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot could force a runoff in the tight race.

Will it happen? It’s quite possible and both campaigns are already preparing for the eventuality. In 2008, Georgia’s US Senate race was forced to a December runoff after Republican Saxby Chambliss couldn’t clear 50% against Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss won the runoff easily.

Don Jr hits the trail

One of the key surrogates for Republicans in the midterms has been Donald Trump’s oldest son, Don Jr. Along with his girlfriend, former Fox News host Kimberly Guilfoyle, Don Jr has been omnipresent on the stump for Republican candidates and has fired up base Republicans.

Why Don Jr? The oldest Trump child has long been the most “extremely online” Trump child and is deeply plugged into the world of hardcore Trump fans who wear Maga hats and are fired up by Trumpian populism.

Poll of the day

A New York Times/Siena poll of the Illinois 14th congressional district shows Democrat Lauren Underwood with a 49%-43% lead over four-term incumbent Republican Randy Hultgren. The district is a traditionally Republican one but one where affluent suburbanites have been skeptical of Trump.

Is this big? If Democrats win this district, it means they are well on their way to the House majority and picking up a number of once deep red suburban districts.

Ad of the day

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is spending $5m on ads on the eve of the midterms that feature him speaking straight to the camera to urge moderate voters to support Democrats in the midterms.

So is he running? It’s hard to imagine a septuagenarian New York billionaire with an abrasive personality mounting a successful presidential bid, but stranger things have happened.