After Pennsylvania victory, party looks to Dr Hiral Tipirneni, among a wave of Democratic women inspired to run after Trump’s win

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

Republicans have run Phoenix’s West Valley for as long as Bill Bercu has lived there.



US Congress: Republicans rush for the exits to imperil Trump's midterm hopes Read more

“Democrats didn’t bother with the west side because it’s all old farts like me and they are all Republicans,” said Bercu, 67, a retired university professor who chairs a local chapter of the Maricopa County Democratic party. “But that’s changing, fast.”

After upset victories in Alabama and Pennsylvania, Arizona’s special election to replace Trent Franks, an arch-conservative who resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal last year, is drawing national attention as a gauge of Democratic enthusiasm ahead of the 2018 midterm elections.

The state’s eighth congressional district, described as “so red it’s burgundy” by an Arizona Republic columnist, is home to the “sun cities”, a cluster of retirement communities that served as an unshakeable base for the hardline sheriff Joe Arpaio during his nearly 25 years in office. Trump won the district by 21%.



“The question isn’t if the GOP will retain the seat,” said Mike Noble, a Republican pollster in the state, “but how much does [Debbie] Lesko win by?”



As the 24 April contest approaches, Bercu said signs of political change are everywhere. In January 2017, he convened a meeting in a small room behind a funeral parlor in Sun City. A “miracle” happened: organizers ran out of seats. Democratic energy has only “grown exponentially” since, he said.

Last week, at least 200 Democrats – and a handful of independent voters – attended a meeting in a high school auditorium to listen to Hiral Tipirneni, the Democratic candidate.

“We’ve gained a lot of ground,” Tipirneni told them. “We definitely have good traction. And it seems that maybe we’ve put a little fear into the hearts of the Republicans.”

Tipirneni, a former emergency room doctor and political newcomer who was inspired to run for office after the 2016 election, is the first Democrat to contest the seat since 2012. She faces Lesko, a former state senator who championed legislation allowing Sun City residents to drive golf carts on the road. When the bill was passed, the community feted officials including Lesko with a 100-golf cart parade.

The seat came open in December, when Franks resigned over reports he offered to pay a female staffer $5m to give birth to his child. In a 12-way primary, Franks endorsed Steve Montenegro, a former state senate leader. But it was revealed that Montenegro, a married Christian minister, exchanged nude photos and flirtatious texts with a staffer.

Republicans were relieved when Lesko won the nomination. And yet the party’s national committee recently injected more than $280,000 into the race – a sign, Democrats say, that the GOP is worried.

“If you look at that national wave of momentum, Arizona is no different,” Tipirneni told the Guardian. “Our Democratic base is energized. And what’s amazing is that we didn’t realize how many Dems were there just waiting for somebody to step up and represent them.”

Barrett Marson, a spokesman for Lesko, countered that a lack of investment by national Democrats was more telling than any Republican commitment.

“This is not a district that Democrats have contended in or participated in in many years,” he said, “and their spending in the current race I think demonstrates that they understand it’s not winnable.”

In a poll by Lake Research Partners, released by Tipirneni, Lesko held a 14-point lead. Nearly 60% of respondents said they approved of Trump. On campaign signs, Lesko says she is “standing with the president”. She also backs Trump’s demand for a border wall and touts the benefits of Republican tax cuts.

But standing by Trump isn’t always easy, even a district where Trump remains popular. During a debate, Lesko, herself a survivor of domestic violence, said accusations of sexual misconduct against the president should be investigated. In an interview with the New York Times, she said she had misspoken. Marson, her spokesman, said Lesko meant that claims should be taken seriously but was in “no way” calling for a formal investigation.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Debbie Lesko celebrates with her husband, Joe, after voting results show her victory in a special primary election for the seat. Photograph: Ralph Freso/AP

Lesko is also facing allegations that she violated campaign finance law by steering funds from her state senate account to a campaign Super Pac. She has denied wrongdoing.

Tipirneni has cast herself as a moderate willing to work across the aisle and strongly disputes the charge that she is “too liberal” for the district. She supports “commonsense” gun control measures, a public health insurance option and comprehensive immigration reform.

The district is 41% registered Republican, 24% Democrat and 33% unaffiliated. Democrats are targeting newer suburban communities on the western outskirts of Phoenix, hoping to win over independents and disaffected Republicans.

“We know that conventional wisdom doesn’t apply because look at all of these other places where the numbers really didn’t affect the eventual outcome,” Tipirneni said. “There’s a lot of reason to think that Arizona can absolutely be next.”

At the Democratic meeting last week, Bob Wall, 78, from Glendale, said he planned to vote for Tipirneni but struggled to remember her name. So he’d rewritten the lyrics of a British first world war marching song, It’s a Long Way to Tipperary. By the close of the meeting, attendees belted: “We are marching for Tipirneni … it’s the right way to go.”

Such enthusiasm among Democrats could spell trouble for Arizona Republicans running in the midterm elections this fall, Noble said. But as for the upcoming special election, he said, an upset was unlikely.

He compared hopes of a Democratic win to a scene in Dumb and Dumber in which Jim Carrey’s character, Lloyd Christmas, asks the woman of his dreams the odds they will end up together.

“One in a million,” she says.

Christmas’s face lights up.

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”