As has become customary on TNL.net, January is the time when I look at the streaming market through the Box Office Lens (for reference, here’s data from 2011 and 2010). So it’s time to pick up the 2012 list of box office hits and take the same look.

2012: A subscription odyssey

This year saw the rise of a potential competitor to Netflix in Amazon Prime, as the retail giant started offering an all-you can-eat buffet of movie and TV shows. For each movie of the top 100 movies at the box office, I pulled data on for streaming info on Netflix and Amazon Prime. I also pulled up availability of DVDs to use as a yardstick in terms of overall movie availability. The final chart looked like this:

Rank Title Studio Netflix Amazon Prime DVD 1 Marvel’s The Avengers BV No No Yes 2 The Dark Knight Rises WB No No Yes 3 The Hunger Games LGF No No Yes 4 Skyfall Sony No No No 5 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Sum. No No No 6 The Amazing Spider-Man Sony No No Yes 7 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB No No No 8 Brave BV No No Yes 9 Ted Uni. No No Yes 10 Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted P/DW No No Yes 11 Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax Uni. No No Yes 12 MIB 3 Sony No No Yes 13 Wreck-It Ralph BV No No No 14 Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox No No Yes 15 Snow White and the Huntsman Uni. No No Yes 16 Hotel Transylvania Sony No No No 17 Taken 2 Fox No No Yes 18 21 Jump Street Sony No No Yes 19 Lincoln BV No No No 20 Prometheus Fox No No Yes 21 Safe House Uni. No No Yes 22 The Vow SGem No No Yes 23 Magic Mike WB No No Yes 24 The Bourne Legacy Uni. No No Yes 25 Argo WB No No No 26 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB No No Yes 27 Rise of the Guardians P/DW No No No 28 Flight Par. No No No 29 Think Like a Man SGem No No Yes 30 Life of Pi Fox No No No 31 The Campaign WB No No Yes 32 The Expendables 2 LGF No No Yes 33 Wrath of the Titans WB No No Yes 34 Les Miserables (2012) Uni. No No No 35 Dark Shadows WB No No Yes 36 Django Unchained Wein. No No No 37 John Carter BV No No Yes 38 Act of Valor Rela. Yes No Yes 39 Contraband Uni. No No Yes 40 Looper TriS No No Yes 41 Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection LGF No No Yes 42 Battleship Uni. No No Yes 43 Mirror Mirror Rela. Yes No Yes 44 Chronicle (2012) Fox No No Yes 45 Pitch Perfect Uni. No No Yes 46 Hope Springs Sony No No Yes 47 Underworld Awakening SGem No No Yes 48 The Lucky One WB No No Yes 49 The Dictator Par. No No Yes 50 Total Recall (2012) Sony No No Yes 51 Titanic 3D Par. No No No 52 American Reunion Uni. No No No 53 ParaNorman Focus No No Yes 54 This Means War Fox No No Yes 55 Project X WB No No Yes 56 The Woman in Black CBS No No Yes 57 Paranormal Activity 4 Par. No No No 58 The Devil Inside Par. Yes Yes Yes 59 Jack Reacher Par. No No No 60 The Odd Life of Timothy Green BV No No Yes 61 Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance Sony No No Yes 62 The Grey ORF Yes No Yes 63 Red Tails Fox No No Yes 64 The Possession LGF No No Yes 65 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Fox No No Yes 66 Sinister Sum. No No Yes 67 Beauty and the Beast (3D) BV No No Yes 68 Savages (2012) Uni. No No Yes 69 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS No No Yes 70 Moonrise Kingdom Focus No No Yes 71 The Three Stooges Fox No No Yes 72 Here Comes the Boom Sony No No Yes 73 Red Dawn (2012) FD No No No 74 Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (in 3D) Fox No No No 75 This Is 40 Uni. No No No 76 Resident Evil: Retribution SGem No No Yes 77 The Cabin in the Woods LGF No No Yes 78 What to Expect When You’re Expecting LGF No No Yes 79 Finding Nemo (3D) BV No No No 80 End of Watch ORF No No Yes 81 Rock of Ages WB (NL) No No Yes 82 Parental Guidance Fox No No No 83 Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox No No Yes 84 Lawless Wein. No No Yes 85 That’s My Boy Sony No No Yes 86 Trouble with the Curve WB No No Yes 87 The Watch Fox No No Yes 88 Step Up Revolution Sum. No No Yes 89 Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds LGF No No Yes 90 Frankenweenie BV No No Yes 91 2016 Obama’s America RM No No Yes 92 House at the End of The Street Rela. No No Yes 93 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony No No Yes 94 Joyful Noise WB No No Yes 95 Silver Linings Playbook Wein. No No No 96 Chimpanzee BV No No Yes 97 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. No No Yes 98 Cloud Atlas WB No No No 99 One For the Money LGF Yes Yes Yes 100 Alex Cross Sum. No No Yes

At first look, the subscription based business doesn’t see to be where you want to go if you are looking for the latest hits. Of the top 100 movies at the box office in 2012, Netflix had 5 and Amazon Prime had 2. By comparison, 77 of those movies were available for rent on DVD (if you still have a corner rental place, that is). Let’s grade on the curve and assume that 77 is the number of movies we can expect to see available as the other 23 are still in theater. That would mean that Netflix saw 6.5% availability while Amazon prime saw 2.6% availability. The only thing we can assume, from there is that online subscription services are not the type of place you want to go to if you are looking to see movies that came out in the previous year. As the two services are looking to develop their catalog, it looks as if they decided that the first 12 months after release of a movie do not figure in their existing business plan and that consumers will go find such movies somewhere else.

VOD

So while it’s clear that the rental market is not so great, how is the internet VOD market doing? Over the last year, we’ve see the entry of YouTube into the VOD market, offering titles for $3.99-4.99. Also, last year, some readers felt that I had unfairly left Blockbuster out so I’ve added them. At the current time, only Vudu offers 3D title but because it does offer such titles, I decided to only include availability on a 3D re-release of an old title (eg. The Phantom Menace) if it is available as a streaming 3D title (However, titles that were new in both 2D and 3D this year were accepted if one of the format was available):

Rank Title Studio iTunes Amazon Vudu YouTube Blockbuster DVD 1 Marvel’s The Avengers BV Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 2 The Dark Knight Rises WB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 3 The Hunger Games LGF Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No Purchase only Yes 4 Skyfall Sony No No No No No No 5 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Sum. No No No No No No 6 The Amazing Spider-Man Sony Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB No No No No No No 8 Brave BV Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 9 Ted Uni. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 10 Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted P/DW Yes Yes Yes No No Yes 11 Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax Uni. Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 12 MIB 3 Sony Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 13 Wreck-It Ralph BV No No No No No No 14 Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes 15 Snow White and the Huntsman Uni. No No Yes No Yes Yes 16 Hotel Transylvania Sony No No No No No No 17 Taken 2 Fox Purchase only No No No No Yes 18 21 Jump Street Sony Purchase only No Purchase only No Purchase only Yes 19 Lincoln BV No No No No No No 20 Prometheus Fox Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 21 Safe House Uni. No Yes No No No Yes 22 The Vow SGem No No No No No Yes 23 Magic Mike WB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 24 The Bourne Legacy Uni. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 25 Argo WB No No No No No No 26 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB No No No No No Yes 27 Rise of the Guardians P/DW No No No No No No 28 Flight Par. No No No No No No 29 Think Like a Man SGem Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes 30 Life of Pi Fox No No No No No No 31 The Campaign WB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 32 The Expendables 2 LGF Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes 33 Wrath of the Titans WB No No No No No Yes 34 Les Miserables (2012) Uni. No No No No No No 35 Dark Shadows WB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 36 Django Unchained Wein. No No No No No No 37 John Carter BV Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No No Yes 38 Act of Valor Rela. Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 39 Contraband Uni. No No No No No Yes 40 Looper TriS Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 41 Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection LGF No No No No No Yes 42 Battleship Uni. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 43 Mirror Mirror Rela. Yes Yes No Yes No Yes 44 Chronicle (2012) Fox Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No No Yes 45 Pitch Perfect Uni. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 46 Hope Springs Sony Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 47 Underworld Awakening SGem Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No Purchase only Yes 48 The Lucky One WB Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 49 The Dictator Par. Yes No Yes Yes No Yes 50 Total Recall (2012) Sony Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 51 Titanic 3D Par. No No No No No No 52 American Reunion Uni. No No No No No No 53 ParaNorman Focus Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 54 This Means War Fox Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No No Yes 55 Project X WB No No No No No Yes 56 The Woman in Black CBS Purchase only No Yes No No Yes 57 Paranormal Activity 4 Par. No No No No No No 58 The Devil Inside Par. Yes Purchase only Purchase only No No Yes 59 Jack Reacher Par. No No No No No No 60 The Odd Life of Timothy Green BV Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 61 Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance Sony Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No Purchase only Yes 62 The Grey ORF Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 63 Red Tails Fox Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No No Yes 64 The Possession LGF No No No No No Yes 65 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Fox Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 66 Sinister Sum. No Yes No No No Yes 67 Beauty and the Beast (3D) BV No No No No No Yes 68 Savages (2012) Uni. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 69 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 70 Moonrise Kingdom Focus Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 71 The Three Stooges Fox No Purchase only Purchase only No No Yes 72 Here Comes the Boom Sony No No No No No Yes 73 Red Dawn (2012) FD No No No No No No 74 Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (in 3D) Fox No No No No No No 75 This Is 40 Uni. No No No No No No 76 Resident Evil: Retribution SGem Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes 77 The Cabin in the Woods LGF Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 78 What to Expect When You’re Expecting LGF Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 79 Finding Nemo (3D) BV No No No No No No 80 End of Watch ORF No No No No No Yes 81 Rock of Ages WB (NL) Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 82 Parental Guidance Fox No No No No No No 83 Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 84 Lawless Wein. Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 85 That’s My Boy Sony Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 86 Trouble with the Curve WB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 87 The Watch Fox Purchase only Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 88 Step Up Revolution Sum. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 89 Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds LGF Purchase only Purchase only Yes No No Yes 90 Frankenweenie BV No No No No No Yes 91 2016 Obama’s America RM Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 92 House at the End of The Street Rela. Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No Yes 93 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No Purchase only Yes 94 Joyful Noise WB No No No No No Yes 95 Silver Linings Playbook Wein. No No No No No No 96 Chimpanzee BV No Yes Yes Yes No Yes 97 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 98 Cloud Atlas WB No No No No No No 99 One For the Money LGF Purchase only Purchase only Purchase only No No Yes 100 Alex Cross Sum. No No No No No Yes

Let’s aggregate the data to get a better view of what we’re looking at here. The values shown are for rental availability. I’ve put purchasable titles in parentheses:

iTunes Amazon Vudu YouTube Blockbuster DVD Top 10 6 (+1) 6 (+1) 6 (+1) 5 3 (+1) 7 Top 25 12 (+3) 13 (+1) 12 (+2) 6 9 (+2) 18 Top 50 25 (+6) 24 (+4) 24 (+5) 18 18 (+3) 38 Top 100 44 (+15) 44 (+13) 46 (+13) 38 (+1) 32 (+5) 77

Looking at the aggregate data, it is clear that there is still progress to be made. While 77 of the top 100 movies at the box office in 2012 were available on DVD at the beginning of January 2013, you could only rent up to 46 online. Let’s assume, for a minute, that the DVD data represents total availability because the other movies are still in theater (though a case could be made for release movies online simultaneously). Based on that data, what’s the percentage of available blockbusters:

iTunes Amazon Vudu YouTube Blockbuster Top 10 85% 85% 85% 71% 43% Top 25 66% 72% 66% 33% 50% Top 50 66% 63% 63% 47% 47% Top 100 44% 44% 46% 38% 32%

This data presents a very sad picture indeed. Less than half of the movies being made available on DVD are available for online streaming, which means that availability of such titles online is limited and will probably lead to increased piracy. Notable also is how far behind Blockbuster seems to be falling in the space. While Apple (iTunes), Amazon, and WalMart (Vudu) seem to be moving in near conjunction, Blockbuster seems to be falling further and further behind, placing 5th after YouTube, which only entered the business this year. The lack of presence on most consumer electronic seems to speak to the other end of the problem for Blockbuster and I would not be surprised if it abandoned online streaming in the future.

But what does this look like from a trending perspective? To do so, I’ve pulled the data for the top 100 movies from 2010 and 2011 and added in this year’s data:

Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD 2010 48 46 46 74 2011 45 44 44 74 2012 44 44 46 77

What’s interesting here is that we are seeing a relatively consistant pattern, with an average of 44-46 blockbusters available for legal online streaming yearly while we see around 75 blockbusters available on DVD.

But what do things look like when you factor in sales:

Amazon iTunes Vudu DVD 2010 56 60 57 74 2011 61 62 61 74 2012 57 59 59 77

The picture does not get any clearer when you factor in sales data. We are seeing titles being sold as digital copies at a slower pace than their equivalent on plastic disks. With 3 years of data now available, we can observe that there does not seem to be any growth at all in either models and that studios appear wary of the internet. From a business standpoint, it’s unclear why we’re not seeing parity here. After all, an increasing number of people are turning to streaming as the alternative to DVD and it seems that studios are , at best, leaving money on the table or, in the worst case scenario, encouraging piracy. One can only hope that 2013 will be the year when we might see some changes in that space as it concerns legal streaming of data.

Conclusion

2012 seems to have been a flat year when it comes to making progress in offering online content. While the subscription model seems to have avoided presenting popular titles, the VOD business seems to be stagnating with large parts of the catalog still sitting on the sideline. The most surprising finding is probably how the industry now seem to be stagnating when it comes to offering new titles online at the same rate as they’re presenting them on DVD and BluRay. It appears Hollywood is still skittish about the power of the internet and, as a result, may be encouraging further piracy of their titles as they refuse to provide legal ways to acquire the content online.

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