The “catastrophic” decision making of former premier Jim Prentice and the Progressive Conservative government in the final months before the 2015 election paved the way for an unprecedented NDP victory, say defeated Tory MLAs.

Over the last month, The Edmonton Sun has interviewed a dozen former PC MLAs, high-profile cabinet ministers, Wildrose floor-crossers and senior political staff — some speaking on the record, some on background and some under the condition of anonymity — to piece together the fatal missteps of the longest-serving provincial government in Canadian history.

Today, defeated Tory MLAs describe the PC government’s election failure as a “death by a thousand cuts,” with everything from former premier Alison Redford’s flights on the now-sold government fleet to former premier Jim Prentice’s “look in the mirror” comment to former justice minister Jonathan Denis’ faltering marriage playing a role in the party’s historic loss. However, MLAs say key decisions in the controversial Wildrose floor-crossings, the 2015 budget, the early election call and the TV debate ultimately sealed the PCs’ fate.

Floor-crossing Catastrophe

Senior Tory leadership, including the premier, fundamentally miscommunicated the terms of the controversial Wildrose floor-crossings, both internally to the PC caucus and in discussions with the floor-crossers themselves.

Following four byelection losses and significant caucus turmoil, senior Wildrose MLAs accelerated merger discussions shortly after Wildrose MLAs Kerry Towle and Ian Donovan crossed the floor in early December 2014. The talks led to the drafting of 10 key policies in a “reunification agreement” that the Wildrose caucus understood as a firm accord between parties.

In addition, the Wildrose pushed for four cabinet positions. Sources say the PCs agreed on two: leader Danielle Smith was set to become minister of Human Services and Rob Anderson was set to become minister of Advanced Education. A high-profile cabinet minister confirmed to the Sun that he was told to prepare for a swearing-in ceremony on Friday, Dec. 19.

Everything changed, however, during an intense six-hour PC caucus meeting on Dec. 17 that was described by one MLA as “very emotional and very negative.” The PCs vehemently opposed any cabinet deals and some wanted to vote on the Wildrosers individually rather than as a whole. Former cabinet ministers Doug Horner and Doug Griffiths were so opposed to the crossing, said MLAs, that they indicated they would quit if it were passed. Both MLAs announced their intentions within weeks.

Many PC MLAs said the floor-crossings were introduced as an opportunity to unite conservative forces, but some felt mislead.

“It was sold to us that all of them were coming,” said one MLA. “That the four or five left were still in the decision-making process but the nine were there today and one more was coming within two days. We thought they were all in.”

The PCs eventually “took a leap of faith” on Prentice’s plan to accept the Wildrosers, despite little input from the grassroots. A senior party executive confirmed that a teleconference for board members held that day was delayed so many times that many PC constituency heads were unable to hold the line and give feedback. Many learned the details through media reports.

“It was a strange move,” said Thomas Lukaszuk, who was abroad at the time but received text updates from the room. “You don’t just merge the top without talking to the base...It was a very big misstep. It showed arrogance, a total disregard for party grassroots.”

The announcement was set to be followed by a two-day press tour with Prentice and Smith supported by several “elder statesmen.” In the end, only Preston Manning came forward with support and apologized one week later for his part in advising the crossing.

While she was promised public support from the PCs, Smith said she felt immediately “cut loose” by Prentice’s team in wake of the initial public backlash and was left to defend the decision alone as the crossing was perceived as a “cooked-up backroom deal”.

“One of my greatest disappointments in all of this was that in that six-hour caucus meeting, those 10 principles didn’t come up at all,” she said. “For us, it was all about those 10 key policies but for the PCs, it was an afterthought.”

Today, Smith says she regrets not taking the decision to the party membership first and admits she “put too much stake” in Prentice’s ability to implement the agreed-on principles.

“Unfortunately the decisions made subsequent to all of that were a huge, huge missed opportunity,” she said. “We’re left now with a fractured conservative movement and no path forward which is a recipe for continued NDP governments.”

Budget Blunders

Tory MLAs said they felt “blindsided” by the particulars of the 2015 budget, which was developed by a “secretive” seven-member budget committee that shared very little information with PC cabinet ministers or backbench MLAs.

Telegraphing a “tough” budget for months ahead of its March 26 release, Prentice indicated the government would use “three levers” — cutting spending, accessing savings and increasing taxes — to balance the budget in the wake of plummeting oil prices. Many Tory MLAs were bracing for spending cuts in the area of nine per cent but on budget day, found Prentice had pulled too hard on the tax lever and didn’t pull hard enough on the spending cuts lever.

“A budget that had cut spending more and taxed less would have appealed to the small-c conservative base. It was almost like the tax increases resuscitated the Wildrose,” said Denis. “It also left us with very little room to criticize the NDP when we weren’t cutting much spending and we were also increasing taxes and running a large deficit.”

Smith said she staked her political career on Prentice’s promise to tackle government overspending but the final budget, running almost $30 billion in debt over five years, “was a disaster and a personal embarrassment for me.”

“I thought we were actually going to see a fiscally conservative premier with a fiscally conservative budget and of course, when that came down, there was no way it was going to unite conservatives behind Jim Prentice as leader.”

Part of the problem was a lack of budget vetting through “political eyes.” While MLAs were invited to give feedback, many felt they weren’t heard. A former cabinet minister confirmed that ministers outside the “secretive” budget committee were only privy to the contents of their own ministry’s budget and were not privy to the full fiscal plan until it hit the floor of the assembly.

Many of the budget’s most controversial elements, including the charitable tax credit reduction (which was later reversed during the campaign) and zero funding for new student enrollment, were not communicated to MLAs prior to the budget announcement.

“We were blindsided,” said Towle, adding the corporate tax exemption “created a real problem” during the election as it punched a hole in Prentice’s “'We’re all in this together’ narrative” that was gleefully exploited by the Alberta NDP.

“All he had to do was increase it one per cent and it would still be a PC majority today...I think (Prentice) truly thought Albertans would like this budget and he was caught off guard when they revolted over it.”

Early Election and TV Debate

The PC's early election call left many MLAs nervous about their political prospects while also causing major problems in the party nominations, where allegations of bribery and favouritism cast a dark shadow on the PCs.

“I think a lot of us, including many of the PCs, felt threatened,” said Towle. “We hoped we had until 2016. I thought I would have a year to rebuild and regain trust and prove that this is where we needed to go. I didn’t.”

The push towards an early election spurred a truncated party nomination process that made headlines for all the wrong reasons as allegations of bribery and “dirty” back-room maneuvers made headlines throughout March and April. Defeated PC MLA Matt Jeneroux said he felt “confused” over the party’s actions in ridings like Chestermere-Rocky View as past nominations “seemed to police themselves.”

While many MLAs said they supported the central campaign message of getting Alberta off the oil and gas roller coaster, many also said they never had an opportunity to critique or provide input on campaign materials prior to the official launch.

“It wasn’t a real well thought out strategy in my mind and obviously it put us behind the eight-ball,” said defeated PC MLA Blake Pedersen, who felt a lack of campaign readiness from the party made the PCs constantly defensive rather than inspiring.

Lukaszuk described the campaign materials as “atypical” compared to previous campaigns. The incumbent MLA received standardized election signs reading ‘Elect Thomas’ rather than ‘Re-elect Thomas’ which “actually means a lot for reaching new residents,” he said. Lukaszuk said he disposed of his ‘Prentice Team’ materials in a $20 cash deal with a shredding truck driver.

A “watershed moment” for the campaign came in the TV debate when Prentice misspoke on the NDP’s plan for corporate tax while taking a “math is difficult” swipe at the their billion-dollar fiscal platform miscalculation. The comment was perceived by some as sexist, and worse, it prevented Prentice from actually refuting the NDP’s corporate tax position on TV.

“Things changed on the ground like a wave,” said one MLA. “After that, there was a lot of people who just wanted to see what change looked like after 44 years and I have to give credit to the NDP and the Wildrose who really hit that message home.”