Despite suffering losses, a projection commissioned by The Model Telegraph predicts the Conservative Party will remain the largest contingent of the House of Commons, the Labour Party in a close second with the Libertarian Party, Classical Liberals and Social Democratic Party also with much to celebrate.

The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are expected to have a difficult night, with the latter contesting electoral oblivion. In our projection, we expect the Greens to go home empty handed.

If on Sunday this projection is proven to be correct, the Government of the Conservatives and Libertarians would fall to 48 seats. The so-called Sunrise+ coalition comprising of the Labour Party, Classical Liberals, Liberal Democrats and SDP could rely on 49 seats and mount an effective challenge for Downing Street. In this theoretical House of Commons, “other” including Plaid Cymru, The People’s Movement and The Democratic Reformist Front may become influential in deciding the success of any government.

The full projection can be viewed here.

Where to watch

Highland and Grampian

The north of Scotland played host to a strong challenge from the Social Democratic Party and a relatively weak defence from a Conservative incumbent. Expect a large swing towards the challenger; although wether this will prove enough to dislodge a confortable lead in unclear.

North Yorkshire

Another Conservative incumbent in trouble, with a challenge lead by the Classcal Liberals; with endorsement from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. A strong campaign by both candidates could see a photo finish.

Birmingham, Solihull, and Coventry

With the absence of New Britain, and a Conservative no-show, the Liberal Democrats and Liberatarian Party will battle for this seat. Poor polling before the election and a weak national campaign could well see the Liberal Democrats unseated. Consider this seat a weather vane for a party hoping to stave off losses. Lose, and they should expect a poor night.

Derbyshire

A straight fight between the controversial Banana_Republic_ and a former Prime Minister. Expect a close result as Labour target this seat with a strong campaign. The Conservatives may hold with a equally strong defence and an endorsement from the Libertarian Party.

Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire

Another Conservative no-show puts what would be considered a safe seat well into contention, with in insurgent Liberal Democrat campaign, the Conservatives will be hoping their lead is enough in the face of a weak Liberal national campaign.

Essex

Another Conservative held seat, another challenge from the opposition. This time, a sam-irl Labour campaign with momentum. The Conservatives will mount a strong defence, but ultimately we expect vote splitting with the Libertarians and Classical Liberals to hand Labour the seat.

Glamorgan and Gwent

The Welsh Liberal Alliance should be worried in the face of strong campaigning from Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. A four horse race. In a seat where anyone can win, the Conservatives and Labour seem the most likely to gain from a weakened Welsh Liberal Alliance.