Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images employment Unemployment drops to lowest level since 1969

Unemployment fell to its lowest level in nearly half a century in September even as job growth slowed, allowing President Donald Trump to present a mostly-favorable economic picture in the critical home stretch before the midterm elections.

The Labor Department reported 134,000 new jobs in September, down from 270,000 in August. Wage growth dipped, with average hourly earnings up 2.8 percent over the previous year, down from 2.9 percent in August — the largest single-month jump in nearly a decade. But unemployment was 3.7 percent, down from 3.9 percent in August and its lowest level since December 1969.


If the September job-growth number signals a long-term slowdown, that would hardly be unexpected, given that the economy has for months been at or near full employment. But the September jobs number, combined with the slowdown in wage growth, complicates Republicans’ efforts to claim success from their tax cut and deregulatory policies. Earlier week, Trump boasted on Twitter about “blowout numbers on New Jobs” that failed to materialize.

Blowout numbers on New Jobs and, separately, Services. Market up! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 3, 2018

Long-term data show the pace of job growth under Trump has been about the same as during the last two years of the Obama administration.

At the same time, the historically low unemployment rate fits neatly into Trump's promise of restoring the American economy's bygone dominance.

“The American economy continues to fire on all cylinders,” Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta said in a statement. “During the past few months, we have seen GDP growth exceed 4 percent, consumer confidence rise to an 18-year high, and the stock market set new records. President Trump’s new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada will open even more opportunity for Americans.“

Abnormally high wage growth in September 2017, at 2.8 percent, may account for wages falling in BLS’ year-over-year comparison. Wages one year ago were up 12 cents an hour, the largest jump since 2007.

The Labor Department earlier reported that gains in full-time median weekly earnings lagged inflation during the first six months of 2018 compared to one year before, and also during the last three months of 2017. The average hourly wage increase, which is usually higher but less representative of the typical worker’s wage than the median, remained about even with the Consumer Price Index.

The labor force participation rate — the share of people actively looking for a job — remained near 63 percent in September, close to its lowest level since the 1970s.

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These findings have allowed Democrats to argue that whatever economic gains were generated by lower taxes did not translate into higher wages for ordinary workers. “Most Americans don’t feel more economically secure,” said Chris Lu, who was President Barack Obama’s deputy labor secretary.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the creation of 180,000 jobs in September, an increase in over-the-year hourly earnings of 2.9 percent, and an unemployment rate down at 3.8 percent.

Economists had speculated that the September numbers could be skewed by Hurricane Florence, but BLS analysts said that response rates for the surveys were within normal ranges.



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