3.09am GMT

Back with Jim Newell with Republicans in swing-state Virginia.

The good news is that the many, many Northern Virginia Republicans who showed up for tonight's Arlington County GOP watch party seem to be having fun. Even with the bad news trickling in-- the tighter-than-hoped-for race in Florida, the losses in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and, of course, the continuing gridlock in the Old Dominion that likely won't be resolved until forever – people are schmoozing politely and drinking all too responsibly, considering.

Oh, but what was that, Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly – the Republicans will retain the House? That announcement just aired and, while completely expected, it still earned a hearty cheer through Arlington's Ri Ra Irish Pub.

There are five enormous televisions here, all tuned to Fox News. Perhaps this plays a role in the unusually lively atmosphere here, as the race is still being treated as a toss-up. And it's not over, yet. But whether you loved or hated political science forecasting heading into tonight, it's clearly no longer a toss-up.

And there goes Wisconsin, we're told. "The firewall is holding up?" a fellow sitting across from from us proclaims asks, bewildered, before ordering fish 'n' chips.

The Arlington County GOP is hosting this party along with its affiliates in the local College Republicans and various other nearby demographic subchapters. But it's not reserved for members only. Arlington County is not a GOP stronghold, so anyone who can make it here appears to have made it.

Jeff, from New Jersey, and Dave, from Florida, both moved to Arlington two weeks ago and have already managed to locate their nearby brothers in ideology for tonight's festivities. Jeff, like 100% of people in Northern Virginia, started a new job with a defense contractor – an industry that has loudly and almost solely focused its ire this election season at those lawmakers who would allow the impending sequestration to cut deeply into the defense budget, lest Congress acts. That's a lot of money and a lot of jobs at stake, to be sure.

(Jeff adds, while discussing the Democratic party, that using big government to create jobs is not the way the economy should work.)

Dave, who works in finance, agrees: only one party, the one throwing this Irish pub election fete, rewards risktaking. It's the only way to run an economy, and Romney was the embodiment of this. His problem was largely "PR." His people "behind the scenes" could've presented him in a less ruthless light, and much earlier.

Fox News just called New Hampshire for President Obama. No one seems disappointed. How many are still watching?