Updating the Climate Science What Path is the Real World Following? Makiko Sato & James Hansen Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions (CSAS)

Columbia University Earth Institute

475 Riverside Drive (Room 401-O)

New York, NY 10115

mhs119@columbia.edu

Twitter: Makiko Sato @MakikoSato6

Visit Dr. Hansen's Communication Page, our Earth Institute and CSAS.org Websites,

or go directly to our Monthly Temperature Update Email Page

Our aim is to help people understand global climate change  and how the factors that drive climate are changing.

We start with climate diagnostics  people are usually most interested in climate change itself. But cause-and-effect analysis requires also data on climate forcings (which drive climate change) and feedbacks (which amplify or diminish climate change).

We update graphs of "Storms of My Grandchildren." Yet the greatest insight about processes discussed in "Storms" is often provided by other quantities, for example, the rate of ice sheet disintegration. We include some data from other scientists or their web sites, as indicated.

Continual updating of data curves, whether global temperature, the Greenland ice sheet mass, the sun's brightness, Keeling's carbon dioxide record, or other more obscure quantities, is a most interesting aspect of science. Sometimes data curves follow an expected path, sometimes not, but we usually learn something. As Richard Feynman said, there is a pleasure of finding things out.

That pleasure is now mixed with concern. Humans are altering the measured curves. But whether climate change will be moderate  something humans and most species can adjust to  or whether climate change accelerates and spins out of control, with devastating consequences for future generations  that depends.

Future climate depends on how climate forcings change  human-made greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, and forcings that are not yet well measured, especially aerosols. The speed and degree of climate change also will depend upon how fast amplifying feedbacks, such as Arctic sea ice, the large ice sheets, and methane hydrates come into play.

"Storms of My Grandchildren" by James Hansen

"Sophie's Planet" by James Hansen

___(draft chapters for fact checking)

Critical Climate Diagnostics and Feedbacks

Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions and Energy Use

Climate Forcings

Paleoclimate (under construction)

Orbital Parameters and Solar Forcing

Greenhouse Gases

Ice Age Climate Forcing

Sea Level Change

Recent Publications

Perceptions and Dice (2012 and 2013)

"Perceptions of climate change" PNAS 2012 109 (37) E2415-E2423. Author Summary and Full Text published ahead of print August 6, 2012.

PNAS 2012 109 (37) E2415-E2423. and published ahead of print August 6, 2012. Some updated figures (last modified 2016/01/15)

(last modified 2016/01/15) Press Release (2012/08/06), Science Briefs" (2012/08) and Discussions (2012/08/11)

(2012/08/06), (2012/08) and (2012/08/11) Animation in Press Release

"It's Not Your Imagination. Summers Are Getting Hotter." by Nadja Popovich and Adam Pearce published in New York Times on 2017/07/28.

Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change" (2013)

Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLOS ONE , 8, e81468, published 2013/12/03. (last modified 2013/10/30)

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms (2016) Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 16 , 3761-3812, 2016, published on 2016/03/22.

, , 3761-3812, 2016, published on 2016/03/22. Figures only (Some Updated)

Popular science summary .

. Video discussion

Climate Change and Responsibilities (2016)