Want to keep up to date on Welsh politics? Sign up and get political news sent straight to your inbox Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice Invalid Email

Wales would suffer a 9.5% hit to GDP if the UK leaves the European Union without an exit deal, according to leaked figures from a UK Government analysis of the consequences of Brexit.

The nation would see a 5.5% reduction in GDP even if the UK leaves with a free trade deal under this assessment – and there would still be a 1.5% blow if the country stayed in the single market.

The predicted losses are understood to cover a 15-year period.

The effect on jobs, businesses, livelihoods and property values of a 9.5% drop in GDP - as compared to the size of the economy if we didn't leave the EU - would be immense.

The leak comes as Theresa May and senior cabinet ministers meet to hammer out an agreed end-goal for the Brexit negotiations.

The areas of the UK which would take the worst hit from a no-deal Brexit would be the Northeast of England (-16%) and the West Midlands (-13%).

According to this analysis, there is no part of the UK that would not see a reduction in GDP under any of the three scenarios.

Overall, UK GDP is expected to go down by 2% if the UK stays in the single market, by 5% if a free trade agreement is secured, and by 8% if there is no deal.

How a no-deal Brexit could hit GDP

The analysis suggests London would suffer the least

The UK capital would only see its GDP go down by 1% if the country stayed in the single market; by 2% if there is a free trade deal; and by 3.5% if there is no deal.

Vaughan Gething, the Welsh Government Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services, said: “This is not remoaners or enemies of the people – this is the UK Government’s own view of the damage done by a hard Brexit. Damage done to my communities that I represent.

“My duty to my constituents must be to stand up against the disaster of a hard Brexit.”

Cardiff South and Penarth Labour MP Stephen Doughty MP said on Twitter: “People in every corner of the United Kingdom will be shocked to see the Government’s own assessment of the damage Brexit will do to their communities. It is utterly shameful that people all across this country are having to rely on leaks to find out how much damage a hard, destructive Brexit will do to their local economies and the country as a whole.”

Mr Doughty, who is a leading supporter of Open Britain campaign which favours close links with the EU, called for the full publication of the UK Government’s research, saying: “The Government cannot continue to try and hide taxpayer funded analysis from the public, just because they’re afraid of the political consequences. The full Brexit impact assessments, along with any other economic analysis of Brexit outcomes, must be published in full, now.

“And as people learn new facts about the costs of Brexit for their communities and their industries, everyone is entitled to keep an open mind about whether or not it’s the right path for the country.”

Swansea West Labour MP Geraint Davies said: “Wales has been hard hit by austerity – with public sector pay freezes, cuts in services and a benefit squeeze on the most vulnerable. Now Brexit, with reduced trade and us paying for the EU Divorce Bill, means vital infrastructure projects in South Wales like rail electrification and the Swansea Tidal Lagoon are being cut...

“These ground-breaking leaked documents show that the government know the true cost of Brexit, but have tried to keep us in the dark.”

However, DUP Brexit supporting MP Ian Paisley said the predictions were as "reliable as astrology".

Plaid Cymru's response: Keep Wales in the single market

(Image: Daliy Post/Caernarfon Herald)

Plaid Cymru Brexit spokesman Hywel Williams said: “These sobering statistics lay bare the devastating impact a hard Brexit would have on our economy. Just as Plaid Cymru has argued all along, remaining in the single market would be the most favourable option if we are to defend Welsh jobs and industries.

“Yet again, Wales is set to be worse off than the UK as a whole as a result of disastrous decisions taken by the Tories and unopposed by Labour in Westminster. Members of all parties should be uniting in the national interest to present the resounding case for Wales to remain in the single market and customs union.”

Mid and West Wales Plaid AM Simon Thomas said the figures showed Wales would be “shafted under any realistic scenario”.

Lib Dems say this is a 'damning outlook for Britain'

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: “This is a damning outlook for Britain. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.

“The Government need to start being clear what they are fighting for. They are still keeping no deal on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy.

“People did not vote to make themselves poorer. They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit.”

The Welsh Government response:

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “Our Brexit trade paper, supported by a Cardiff Business School impact study, shows the Welsh economy is best protected by retaining full and unfettered access to the European Single Market and membership of a customs union.

"This report suggests UK Government research confirms our analysis that a hard Brexit would have a catastrophic impact on Welsh jobs and the economy; reducing the economy by 8 – 10%, which is the equivalent of between £1,500 and £2,000 per person in Wales.

"We have tried wherever possible to base our Brexit policies on evidence and to publish the evidence we have. We call on the UK Government to do likewise. We do not believe the UK Government has any sound economic evidence to support its policy choices as to the sort of Brexit it is pursuing."

Here is how the UK's GDP is predicted to be hit by Brexit

East Midlands:

Single Market - 1.8%

Free Trade - 5.0%

No Deal - 8.5%

Eastern:

Single Market - 1.8%

Free Trade - 5.0%

No Deal - 8.0%

London:

Single Market 1.0%

Free Trade 2.0%

No Deal 3.5%

North East:

Single Market - 3.0%

Free Trade - 11.0%

No Deal - 16.0%

North West:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8.0%

No Deal - 12.0%

South East:

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 4.5%

No Deal - 7.5%

South West:

Single Market - 1.0%

Free Trade - 2.0%

No Deal - 5.0%

West Midlands:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8.0%

No Deal - 13.0%

Yorkshire & Humber:

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 5.0%

No Deal - 7.0%

Northern Ireland:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8.0%

No Deal - 12.0%

Scotland:

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 6.0%

No Deal - 9.0%

Wales:

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 5.5%

No Deal - 9.5%

UK: