Analysis | Tennessee's US Senate race proving competitive, will have national implications

Joel Ebert | The Tennessean

Show Caption Hide Caption Will Phil Bredesen or Marsha Blackburn succeed Bob Corker in the Senate? Phil Bredesen and Marsha Blackburn are the leading candidates to replace Bob Corker in the U.S. Senate

For the first time in more than a decade, Tennessee will have a competitive race for an open U.S. Senate seat.

The seat is currently held by retiring Sen. Bob Corker, and the outcome of the race may tilt the balance of power in the upper chamber of Congress.

When Corker announced his decision to not seek re-election last year, it thrust the state into the national spotlight, given Republicans' slim majority in the U.S. Senate.

The two-term senator from Chattanooga has been in an at-times ugly public feud with President Donald Trump. In June, Corker even suggested that some in the Republican Party are becoming cult-like in their support for the president.

More: Sen. Bob Corker says the GOP is becoming 'cult-like' in its support of President Trump

Corker's decision to retire quickly generated an internal debate within the Tennessee GOP, which historically has elected moderates in the vein of former U.S. Sen. Howard Baker.

“You’ve got kind of a sea change that could potentially take place in 2018," Brent Leatherwood, former executive director of the Tennessee Republican Party, said after Corker announced his retirement. "It’s probably going to be one generation of leadership kind of handing it off to the next, or at least new faces.”

Shortly after Gov. Bill Haslam declined to enter the Senate race, U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn launched her own bid, calling herself a "wingnut" and a "knuckle-dragging conservative."

Blackburn's candidacy not only immediately catapulted her to front-runner status, but solidified concerns that the era of Tennessee's moderate leadership in the Senate may be over.

More: Sen. Bob Corker to his successor: 'I will be cheering you on each step along the way'

More: Where Tennessee's Senate candidates stand on the key issues

The possibility to run for an open seat spurred Democrats to mobilize, as they began encouraging former Gov. Phil Bredesen to enter the race. National party members also turned their eyes to Tennessee's suddenly open seat, viewing the long-held Republican post as a possible pickup in their effort to retake the majority in the Senate.

But in launching his own campaign, Bredesen — who in 2006 was the last Democrat in Tennessee to win a statewide race — has moved to distance himself from the national party.

He is trying to make clear he would take a moderate — even independent — approach, saying he is not running against Trump and expects Republicans to retain the majority in the Senate.

Bredesen and Blackburn face nominal opposition in the August primary.

Since launching their campaigns, early polling indicates a very close race.

Donald Trump says Bredesen 'is a tool' at Blackburn rally President Donald Trump called Phil Bredesen, who is running for a Senate seat against Marsha Blackburn, a "tool" during his latest visit to Nashville.

In late May, Trump acknowledged Blackburn faced a tough campaign during a closed-door fundraiser for Blackburn in Nashville. He rewarded Blackburn's loyalty later that night by headlining a campaign rally, where he called Bredesen a "total tool" of national Democrats.

More: Blackburn campaign uses Trump's criticism of Bredesen in new US Senate ad

That strategy is key for Blackburn. She needs moderate Republicans and independents to see Bredesen as too liberal to carry Tennessee values to the Senate.

While Blackburn also tries to solidify support among the Republican base, Bredesen is well aware that he can't simply rely on Democrats to win in November.

He needs independents and even some Republicans to remember his tenure as governor and elevate him to a seat Democrats have not held since the early 1990s.

In the early going, Bredesen has taken a reserved approach, seldom criticizing the president or Blackburn. Instead, his campaign has focused on issues like pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and the spread of Asian carp in Tennessee, while trying to introduce himself to the thousands of voters who have moved to the state since he last appeared on the ballot.

More: Haslam, Corker criticize tariffs while Blackburn is 'waiting to see'

A specific policy difference between the two candidates was highlighted by Trump's tariffs against steel and aluminum.

The issue led to divisions within the Republican Party, with Blackburn remaining hesitant to criticize any Trump initiative. Bredesen hailed Corker's efforts to reel in the president on tariffs.

More: Sen. Bob Corker: Democrat Phil Bredesen has 'real appeal' for some Republican voters

Adding an additional layer of intrigue to the race is Corker. He said he would not campaign against his friend Bredesen, but has publicly supported and donated money to Blackburn.

Corker's outspoken criticism of the president has rubbed some Tennessee Republicans the wrong way, but Bredesen could pick up some moderate GOP support if he continues to praise Corker's actions that Blackburn opposes.

In many ways, Tennessee's 2018 race for the U.S. Senate is expected to rival the 2006 match-up between Corker and former U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr.

That election was the most expensive in Tennessee history — with early indications suggesting this year's race might surpass the estimated $34 million spent during the Corker-Ford campaign.

Ultimately, the battle between Corker and Ford, which was decided by less than 3 percentage points, was one of the most competitive Senate elections in the nation and one of the few bright spots for the GOP during the 2006 midterms.

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