On 18 September 2012, a RuneScape Wiki project aimed at mining the most data possible out of all public Adventurer's Logs available concluded.

In the 303,465 Adventurer's Logs resulting from the Project, there were 14,471,769 log events, 208,087 unique. The project took the last 50 events from each of the public logs, starting with the highest-ranked players and working down to those with 500 total levels.

Contents show]

Monster drops

Monster drop data has been moved to RuneScape:Data/Adventurer's Logs (18 September 2012)/Drops to lessen the loading time. God Wars Dungeon

Nearly all of the data was compiled before the God Wars Dungeon rework, so we ignore the new items.

For every original God Wars Dungeon boss, there seems to be a ratio of around 4:2:1 for Special items:Shards:Hilt, where "Special items" is Armadyl armour, Bandos armour, the Zamorakian spear or Saradomin sword. It's quite possible that a similar 10:1 ratio exists for the minions with special items and shards, but there is not enough data for anything specific. It would not be surprising if all the bosses had the same drop percentages as well as ratios.

4:2:1 for Special items:Shards:Hilt, where "Special items" is Armadyl armour, Bandos armour, the Zamorakian spear or Saradomin sword. It's quite possible that a similar 10:1 ratio exists for the minions with special items and shards, but there is not enough data for anything specific. It would not be surprising if all the bosses had the same drop percentages as well as ratios. Nex's main drop items are fairly uniform, consistent with the theory that each item has a 1/300 drop rate.

Visage calculations

Based on the number of kills of mithril dragons (792,163), it's believed that they have a 1/10000 chance of dropping a draconic visage, and a 1/30000 chance of dropping the dragon full helm. This is in line with the previously reported frost dragon drop rate. The current hypothesis is that all regular dragons have a drop rate of 1/10000. About twice as many dragon full helms are awarded through pyre burning than dragon slaying (see below). Be aware, however, that drop rates gathered from the kill count and drop count may be inaccurate, as players can turn off reporting on one or the other. However, it's likely that if the estimates are inaccurate, the true numbers would be even lower.

However, it's likely that if the estimates are inaccurate, the true numbers would be even lower. If steel dragons have a visage drop rate of 1/10000 (see above), then we estimate that ~2.8 million of them have been killed to make 279 of them be logged. This would imply that dragon platelegs and plateskirts both have a drop rate of approximately 1/500, as they are 20 times more common than visages. Through similar calculations, it's estimated that the iron dragon's drop rate for platelegs and plateskirts is half that, or 1/1000.

Frost dragons are by far the largest source for draconic visages, accounting for about two-thirds of the overall supply. However (again assuming a 1/10000 drop rate), they only account for 1% of the expected value of the kill.

Other

Dragon claws appear to be about four times as common as any particular tormented demon piece.

The Dagannoth Kings seem to drop dragon hatchets at the exact same rate they drop Fremennik rings. Dagannoth Rex has the highest count in all categories, but it's unclear whether the overall drop rate is reduced because he drops two different rings instead of one.

Of all the listed boss monsters, General Graardor has dropped the highest amount of wealth, followed closely by Glacors, and then Nex and the Corporeal Beast. However, given that 2138 draconic visages were looted from frost dragons, we can infer that about 21 million frost dragons were killed in the period, putting their total output far in the lead at 359,351,000,000 coins.

Effigy-assisted drop rate estimates

Through trial and error, we determined that the effigy drop rate had been lowered approximately 2.8 times. The original formula prior to the February reworking was estimated at $ 11018252 \times level^{-1.9469123} $ , so the new formula should be something close to $ 30851105 \times level^{-1.9469123} $ . This is by no means exact.

, so the new formula should be something close to . This is by no means exact. Using this formula, we can approximate the number of kills of a monster during the logging period. For instance, there were 3,399 effigies dropped by abyssal demons. Solving $ 3399 \times 30851105 \times 124^{-1.9469123} $ gives 8,808,733 abyssal demon kills.

gives 8,808,733 abyssal demon kills. Furthermore, given the number of drops and the number of kills, we can now estimate the drop rate of any Adventurer's Log item. There were 16188 abyssal whips dropped during the logging period, and $ 16188/8808733 $ gives 1/544, which, given all the estimation, is remarkably close to the stated drop rate of 1/512.

gives 1/544, which, given all the estimation, is remarkably close to the stated drop rate of 1/512. The following table is presented, showing all drops included on the Adventurer's Logs, excluding shield left halves and dragon helms.

More than usual, take this data with a grain of salt. Even in the best-case scenario, the drop rates may be off by 10% or more.

There is a glaring inconsistency between the frost dragon's draconic visage drop rate estimated here and the one assumed in the previous section; this says 1/6928, but it's believed to be closer to 1/10000. The most plausible explanation is that the frost dragon bots are picking up effigies and banking them, but not using them (at least immediately). This decreases the future effigy drop rate, lowering the number of effigy drops reported, lowering the estimated kills, and raising the estimated drop rate. However, both skeletal wyverns and black dragons have an estimated draconic visage drop rate that tends towards 1/12500 instead of 1/10000. This is far too large of a discrepancy to be statistical noise, so it's quite possible that they have a lower drop rate than the other dragons. In addition, the King Black Dragon appears to have a 1/5000 visage drop rate.

Slayer drops (abyssal whip, amulet of ranging, dark bow, focus sight, staff of light, hexcrest, whip vine from mutated jadinko males, perhaps granite legs and leaf-bladed swords) appear to be clustered around a 1/500 drop rate. Jagex has stated that abyssal whips and dark bows have a drop rate of 1/512, so it's reasonable to assume that these are the same.

Nex armour appears to have about a 1/300 drop rate for each piece. Individual pieces show higher and lower rates, but this is due to the low sample size.

If we are to believe that each God Wars Dungeon boss has the same hilt drop rate (and special item drop rate), this method looks to be over-reporting K'ril Tsutsaroth kills by 20 to 30%. The other three bosses are largely in line with each other. No explanation can be given at this time.

The earlier drop rate estimates for metallic dragons are further supported by the new data.

Glacor drop rates are approximately 1/1130 for each individual type.

Dragon pickaxes are not significantly rarer from chaos dwarves than they are from the more commonly killed monsters. However, only 65 effigies were used for this calculation so it may be inaccurate.

Regrettably, no effigies are dropped by the Corporeal Beast, Dagannoth Kings or God Wars Dungeon minions. Accordingly, no drop estimates can be made.

Drops from the Corporeal Beast

Due to how the events appear in the Adventurer's Log, it is unknown how many times the Corporeal Beast has been killed.

This information suggests that arcane and spectral sigils are between 2 times and 3 times more frequent than elysian and divine sigil drops when taken individually. The drop rate appears to be uniform between arcanes and spectrals, as well as between elysians and divines.

Boot drops from Glacors

Note: This is unfiltered data.

There have been 735,913 glacor kills logged. It is currently possible that a boot drop is associated with a kill event that fell off a player's Adventurer's Log. It is also possible that a kill is reported but not the drop, or that a drop is reported but not the kill, due to Adventurer's Log privacy settings.

This information suggests that the boot drops are uniform between all types of boots.

Treasure Trails are one of the areas where there is no confusion in the data, and no reason to believe the results are anything but completely accurate. The following appear to have the same drop rates:

Wizard hat (g) (0.236%) and wizard robe top (g) (0.227%)

Rune platebody (Gilded) (0.035%) and gilded platelegs (0.033%)

Ranger boots (0.379%) and robin hood hats (0.349%). This is special because they are on separate difficulties.

Guthix bows (0.275%), saradomin bows (0.286%) and zamorak bows (0.248%)

There is no reason to believe that any of the Third Age pieces have different drop rarities.

Other stray observations:

Ten times as many hard clues were completed as elite clues. More than twice as many easy clues were completed as medium clues. Be aware that, as the data gathering project ended before all low-levelled logs were included, the clue distribution may not be perfect.

Of the items included in the Adventurer's Logs, the medium clues have the highest expected value, at 6,915. This is due to the relatively high drop rate of ranger boots. Easy clues have an expected value of 4,594, hard clues 34,333, and elite clues 9,097 (taking the median-priced dragon mask, steel, as an average of the unnamed dragon masks). Keep in mind that this is only the items listed in the Adventurer's Logs, and it is not entirely accurate. Other expensive items like god pages, vestments and ornament kits are not included in the calculation.

the items listed in the Adventurer's Logs, and it is not entirely accurate. Other expensive items like god pages, vestments and ornament kits are not included in the calculation. Not a single piece of third-age druidic equipment was listed in the Adventurer's Logs. It's unclear whether this was due to it being excluded from the log reporting, or because it's so rare that no-one received any.

I killed the player...

50,109 players killed a total of 66,851 times.

Most-killed players: YoungHov - 32 Melee Pooned - 29 De Stranger - 24 Lolkiller136 - 22 novasunset73 - 22 GivMeMoneyHo - 19 Zap Spark - 18 panda hippie - 17 Element-Pr0d - 16 kx_85_num28 - 15



Court Cases summons

With the exception of the mugger case, all of the summons seem to be dropped at a relatively even rate. The mugger summons is given nearly three times as often, as it's the first one that everybody does.

Court Cases seem to be completed more often than they are summoned, which doesn't make much sense. We see a pretty uniform distribution around 420, with the exception of the mugger case again. It's only done about 70% more often than the others, even though it's summoned three times as often.

Champion's scrolls

It's easy to see that the Jogre, Imp and Earth Warrior scrolls are by far the rarest. That doesn't necessarily mean that they're dropped at a lower rate, but they're killed much less often. Zombie, Giant and Ghoul scrolls are the most common. It's possible that this is related to them being killed by bots regularly.

The number killed tells a different story. More than half of the Jogre, Imp and Earth Warrior scrolls were successfully redeemed, compared to around 10% of the most common scrolls.

Monster kills

There are numerous problems with this data, including that when a monster is killed by two players, the kill will show up on all of their logs. It's best not to take this table too seriously, although it can be used as an incredibly rough approximation for drop rates and monster popularity.

Queen Black Dragon

There were 17,655 recorded kills of the Queen Black Dragon. The following drops were also recorded:

Thankfully this data is fairly robust, given that the Queen Black Dragon can only be killed in single combat. Unfortunately this doesn't include royal crossbow pieces, but it does show the three other most sought-after drops. This would imply about a 1/100 drop rate for draconic visages (about 100 times more common than frost dragons), a 1/200 drop rate for dragon kiteshields, and a 1/100 drop rate for dragonbone upgrade kits.

Squeal of Fortune Prizes

* means that the prize was rewarded during the Wild Weekend in which tattoos and horns were moved to the "common" slot.

Notice that Lucky elysian spirit shields and Lucky divine spirit shields are about ten times rarer than the other Lucky items, which all seem to be fairly even at around 70 each. Getting one of those two spirit shields is one of the rarest non-trivial Adventurer's Log events.

During the increased tattoo and horns weekend, the Intricate Tattoo was not moved to the common slot, even though all of the other tattoos were.

Barrows Loot

Notice that there are still 98 draconic visages showing up in the log, even though they were only around for one week back in January. These visages had to be at least as common as any single Barrows item during that week, perhaps much more.

Also notice that Akrisae's robe pieces aren't looted nearly as often as the others, which are uniform. This likely shows that only 15% of Barrowers have completed Ritual of the Mahjarrat and therefore kill Akrisae the Doomed, and it shouldn't be taken as an indication that they're any rarer.

Hybrid Robes

Dungeoneering Rewards

It's a shame that the logs don't show the most common Dungeoneering rewards, chaotic weaponry and shields. No surprise that Rigour and the scroll of cleansing are the most common of those listed.

Pyramid Plunder

For all the talk of the rarity of Black Ibis pieces, the Sceptre of the Gods looks to be 2 or 3 times rarer; however, black ibis is obtainable on all rooms of the pyramid, while sceptre of the gods is only obtainable in the final room, requiring 91 Thieving and 75 Runecrafting.

Quests

First time doing Dungeoneering floor

Floor Quantity Floor Quantity 1 4103 31 4100 2 9814 32 3884 3 9900 33 3560 4 9630 34 3331 5 9039 35 3211 6 8663 36 3127 7 8236 37 3155 8 7903 38 3153 9 7647 39 3152 10 7493 40 3478 11 7394 41 3283 12 7235 42 3111 13 7128 43 2836 14 6977 44 2375 15 6764 45 1978 16 6720 46 1602 17 6710 47 1309 18 6570 48 1145 19 6480 49 1059 20 6395 50 944 21 6255 51 752 22 5989 52 578 23 5758 53 463 24 5600 54 356 25 5251 55 302 26 5091 56 237 27 4889 57 214 28 4625 58 180 29 4462 59 157 30 4317 60 138

This table is in almost perpetual decline, with the exception of the first to second floor, which is perhaps tutorial-related. Floors 36 through 42 also do not see a decline, most likely due to players obtaining their first chaotics at that level.

Dominion Tower

Achievement Quantity 100 bosses 3553 200 bosses 3059 300 bosses 2892 400 bosses 401 450 bosses 2781 500 bosses (set 1) 1470 500 bosses (set 2) 1292 500 bosses (set 3) 1709 Floor 14 Endurance 2478 Floor 15 Climber 2661

Miscellany