The race for the 50th Congressional District is tightening, as Democratic challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar has gained six percentage points in the past two months against Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine.

Hunter remains in the lead, with 48 percent of voters surveyed saying they are voting for him, compared to 45 percent for Campa-Najjar. The spread is within the margin of error for the survey of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

The survey was conducted by SurveyUSA for The San Diego Union-Tribune and 10News. Eight hundred adults were surveyed from Oct. 25 to 29.

The survey took place amid early voting by many in the district, which includes El Cajon, Alpine, Escondido and parts of Riverside County. Of those voters who said they have already returned a ballot, 49 percent said they voted for Hunter, compared to 48 percent for Campa-Najjar.


Hunter is under federal indictment with his wife, Margaret, for allegedly stealing $250,000 of campaign funds for personal use. Both have pleaded not guilty, and Hunter says the August timing of the indictment indicates a partisan witch hunt by the Department of Justice.

The last U-T/10News poll on the race was taken August 22 to 26, in the days after Hunter’s August 21 indictment. At that time, Hunter stood at 47 percent support and Campa-Najjar at 39 percent.

The latest results show a strong correlation between those who support Republican President Donald Trump and those who support Hunter. Trump has sounded very similar notes in his criticism of the Department of Justice for its handling of an investigation of alleged ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.

Similarly, there is a strong correlation between those who oppose the president and those who support Campa-Najjar, who was a White House and Department of Labor aide under former Democratic President Barack Obama.


Despite a strong Republican voter registration advantage in the district, the federal case has made a close race for the Marine veteran and longtime incumbent, first elected to replace his father of the same name in 2008.

Hunter’s lead in the survey results comes despite 53 percent of voters saying they believe he broke the law, compared to 19 percent of voters saying he did not.

The pollster offered this breakdown of how the two candidates are faring among segments of voters:

“If Hunter wins re-election, which he well may, it will be because men (among whom Hunter leads by 10 points), evangelicals (among whom Hunter leads by 57 points), voters in military households (among whom Hunter leads by 28 points), voters who approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President (among whom Hunter leads by 78 points), affluent voters (among whom Hunter leads by 15 points), rural voters (among whom Hunter leads by 26 points), voters focused on immigration (among whom Hunter leads by 80 points), and voters focused on taxes (among whom Hunter leads by 50 points) turn out in large numbers.


“If Campa-Najjar stuns with a political upset, it will be because suburban women (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 12 points), lower-income voters (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 13 points), voters who disapprove of President Trump (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 79 points), voters focused on corruption (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 56 points), voters focused on health care (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 61 points), and voters focused on the Presidency (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 27 points), turn out in large numbers.”

Full interactive crosstabs of the results are available online.