When Winston Churchill, to everyone’s great surprise, lost the general election in 1945, at the end of the war he had inspired the country to win, his wife Clemmie is supposed to have said that “it may well be a blessing in disguise”. Churchill replied, ruefully enough: “At the moment, it seems quite effectively disguised.”

The same goes for Theresa May and the vote of confidence. It is being treated with all the usual fevered excitement that, admittedly, a major news event deserves. And yet she will probably win it, and do so comfortably, if not impressively. It will do her the world of good to refresh her mandate. A majority of one is in fact enough for her to carry on, and to claim her mandate to do so. It is how democracy works; she’s been a lame duck for ages, and, to borrow her phrase, “nothing has changed”. In fact things may well have changed radically for her greatest rival, Boris Johnson.

Looking over at Jeremy Corbyn, she may well, if grudgingly, admire the way he defied his Commons enemies and survived votes of confidence – leadership challenges and front bench resignations included. So now they have at least one thing in common.

Life goes on, and this little interlude will actually only show how weak her enemies actually are – divided among themselves between Remainers and Leavers, and, within that, between the various proponents of a People’s Vote, “Norway Plus”, “Canada Plus Plus Plus”, or a WTO no-deal Brexit.

The list of rivals is long, and the “dream tickets” less than compelling: Gove-Rudd anyone? Javid, Johnson, Hunt, McVey, Mordaunt, Williamson, Raab, Gove, Leadsom, Davis, Hammond, Rudd, Patel – the list of possible contenders is dizzying in its variety and mediocrity. Weak embattled leaders going through crises always survive because their enemies become more fractious the closer the crown hovers into view. That is how Harold Wilson and John Major carried on.

So this confidence vote will be rapidly overtaken by more momentous events and will prove nothing new – we already know, and have done since the botched election last year, that her colleagues don’t think much of her and she is only there because they can’t agree on a suitable replacement. Because there isn’t one, in fact, though there are plenty who think they could do a better job.

May will also have security of tenure for a whole year, in which case, if things go according to plan – admittedly a dodgy assumption – she will be well into the negotiations about the UK’s actual future relationship with Europe and, again an optimistic thought, the mechanisms by which the hated “backstop” can be abolished. Boris Johnson may well look like yesterday’s man by 2020.

Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Show all 10 1 /10 Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Boris Johnson Former foreign secretary and joint favourite at Ladbrokes, Boris Johnson has been a prominent opponent to May's Brexit plan and led the 2016 Leave campaign PA Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Dominic Raab The former Brexit secretary is joint favourite with Boris Johnson at Ladbrokes. Raab supported leave in the referendum Getty Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Sajid Javid The home secretary will back the Prime Minister in the confidence vote but has been rumoured to be a future Tory leader for a while PA Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Jeremy Hunt The foreign secretary will back the Prime Minister in the confidence vote but is seen as a potential contender due to his long time in cabinet and success in his current role PA Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? MIchael Gove The environment secretary is a favourite but recently stated that it is "extermely unlikely" that he would stand for the leadership. Getty Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Amber Rudd The work and pensions secretary is seen as a leading candidate from the moderate wing of the party AFP/Getty Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? David Davis The former Brexit secretary is thought to be a contender due to his prominence in the referendum campaign and support for a hard Brexit AFP/Getty Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Jacob Rees Mogg Leader of the European Research Group and prominent advocate for a hard Brexit, backbencher Rees Mogg is an outside contender but would garner the support of arch-Brexiteers Getty Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Penny Mordaunt The international development secretary has declared her support for the Prime Minister but there is speculation that she may stand if May loses the vote Getty Who might succeed Theresa May if she loses today's confidence vote? Esther McVey The former work and pensions secretary has refused to rule out a leadership bid. She resigned from the cabinet in protest over May's Brexit deal AFP/Getty

Given that she will do anything to make it to the next week, day or morning of her political career, she might make it clear to her MPs, privately or publicly, that her work will be over when she gets the UK out of the EU on 29 March and anyway has no interest in leading them into the next election, but that would just send even more leadership hares running. A period of (relative) stability for 2019 under May could be the least worst option in the circumstances. The current arguments about the withdrawal deal will be history soon enough, and the agenda will have moved on. Eyes will turn to a younger generation of possible successors.

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In which case Boris Johnson is the one whose leadership ambitions will lie in ruins by the time he climbs into bed this evening. Perhaps – like the Miliband brothers – he will find himself overtaken by his younger, better looking brother Jo.