Call them loyal.

National selectors Mike Hesson and Bruce Edgar won't be veering from the script with their New Zealand World Cup 15 today, which means no bolters and at least one hard luck story.

The 5pm announcement at Christchurch's Hagley Oval, scene of the Black Caps' tournament opener against Sri Lanka on February 14 almost holds more interest for who misses the cut, such is the logjam of contenders.

High on that list is Canterbury fast bowler Matt Henry, who could be one of the more unlucky players in recent memory if the selectors, as expected, stay loyal to veteran Kyle Mills who remains the country's highest ranked one-day international bowler at 22nd.

What we know from pre-selection morsels from coach Hesson is that New Zealand will choose five frontline pacemen at the expense of a batting cover spot, which looks like bad news for Dean Brownlie, Anton Devcich and Grant Elliott.

Henry snared 19 wickets at 15 in his first six ODIs and played a key role in New Zealand's 3-2 series win in Pakistan, although in three domestic games on return he took 2-210 at an economy rate of 8.4.

The problem for Henry is, fellow young gun Adam Milne also impressed in the United Arab Emirates without the wicket-taking success, consistently topping 150kmh in accurate, miserly spells to provide a pace point of difference not seen since Shane Bond. Two young, inexperienced quicks in the squad may be one too many.

If you lock in test new ball pair Tim Southee and Trent Boult, the latter low on ODI experience but highly effective with the new white ball in Twenty20 cricket last year, and add Milne, Mills and Mitchell McClenaghan then there's no spot for Henry. That assumes Mills has made a full recovery from his groin injury.

It then makes a simple equation of the 15 who played Pakistan, with rested trio Brendon McCullum, Southee and Boult coming in for Brownlie, Devcich and Henry.

Loyalty to winning teams and players who stepped up under pressure in the past counts heavily in Hesson's equation.

In truth he would have had 15 names pencilled in before departure to the UAE, with Milne's form confirming his spot, Henry making things tricky and Elliott's outstanding Twenty20 season for Wellington providing food for thought.

Elliott has a solid ODI record but if he were to make it, it would be at Tom Latham or Jimmy Neesham's expense. But the fact he wasn't chosen for the UAE tour, and hasn't played an ODI for 14 months, suggest he may have left his run too late.

With McCullum confirmed by Edgar this week as an opener alongside Martin Guptill, Latham will likely bat five and cover both the opener and wicketkeeping positions. Neesham looks assured alongside Corey Anderson with the pair contesting the batting all-rounder's spot in the 11.

Hesson and Edgar planned to contact all 30 who made the preliminary squad and tell them yes or no, either last night or this morning. Hesson would inform the test players in person while Edgar would call the others.

Some who miss the 15 will still feature in the upcoming nine ODIs against Sri Lanka and Pakistan to keep the incumbents fresh. Edgar said this week that McCullum, for example, would sit out some ODIs while the fast bowler rotation will continue which means Henry will likely be seen in black this month even if he misses the cut today.

AT A GLANCE

Likely New Zealand World Cup squad: Brendon McCullum (captain), Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Tom Latham, Corey Anderson, Jimmy Neesham, Luke Ronchi, Daniel Vettori, Nathan McCullum, Kyle Mills, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Mitchell McClenaghan, Adam Milne.