If any stat can be monitored with a small sample, it’s pitch velocity. Fastball velocity stabilized with a sample of ‘1’. Just one fastball is enough to know a pitcher’s velocity going forward. I collected the Opening Day starters’ fastball velocities and compared them to last year’s values. It’s all we can really do at this point in the season.

Additionally, I compared this year’s and last year’s pitch mix. Mainly, I was hoping to find if a starter dumped or added a pitch. I didn’t mention a pitch if its usage didn’t change by 10% points or more.

Here are the starters ordered by fastball velocity change. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points).

Notes

● Nine of the pitchers saw their fastball usage drop by at least 10% points while only Ryu increased by that much. If Opening Day starters (i.e aces) are dropping their fastballs to throw more breaking pitches, what will the rest of the league do? The fastball may be dying. Starters threw fastballs 54% of the time last year and yesterday that value was down to 48%. It’s a trend to track going forward.

● Julio Teheran’s value jumped the most after going through these starters. His velocity increased over 1.5 mph. Also, he dropped the usage of his faster fastball and went with his slider (23% SwStr%) instead.

● For pitchers adding or removing pitches, deGrom and Stroman dropped their curveballs while Verlander brought back his change.

● The three big value droppers are Chris Sale, Jon Lester, and Zack Greinke. Each lost at least 1 mph off their fastballs. Sale is by far the most concerning. Here is how his fastball has performed at different velocities over the years.

Chris Sale’s Fastball Results MPH SwStr% 90 9.1% 91 7.8% 92 8.7% 93 10.2% 94 6.2% 95 13.8% 96 13.8% 97 17.0% 98 21.8% 99 22.5%

While his 92-mph fastball is not as good as one in the upper 90’s, it’s still effective. But they weren’t yesterday. He might need to be benched at this point. Maybe.

As for Zack Greinke, his fastball has always been trash in the low 90’s and high-80’s, so it doesn’t matter if he loses a tick.

Zack Greinke’s Fastball Results MPH SwStr% 88 4.3% 89 4.1% 90 4.4% 91 4.7% 92 5.9%

As for Jon Lester, the results on his fastball don’t decline at the lower velocities, so the drop won’t bury him anymore.