Andrew Healy is back with a sequel to his popular post. As always, we thank him for his generous contributions. Andrew Healy is an economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. He is a big fan of the New England Patriots and Joe Benigno.

A couple of weeks ago, I went decade-by-decade since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to identify the teams that were the best of their eras and the teams that nearly became the teams we remember most instead. In those rankings, I used Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System to estimate team strength. Today, I use Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings and go back an additional twenty years. Using DVOA produces some pretty notable differences that were bigger than I would have guessed.

What are some of those changes?

The Steelers have been supplanted as the true team of the ‘70s.

The best team to win no titles changes for three of the decades.

The ‘70s Vikings get replaced by a more recent what-might-have-been team as the best to win nothing in the Super Bowl era.

Before we get to that, I cover the 1950s and 1960s, identifying the true teams of those decades and the what-might-have-been teams. In a follow-up post, I’ll bring it all together and identify the franchises that have maximized their championship potential the most, and those that have left the most money on the table.

Here are the ground rules for the simulations:

1) The playoffs were run under the rules in place in a given year. All of the results are based on 50,000 simulations performed under those rules. As was the case then, it is substantially easier to win multiple championships before 1967 than it is currently, where teams have to win at least three playoff games.

2) DVOA ratings are used for 1989 and estimated DVOA from 1950-1988. I thank Andreas Shepard for sharing his estimated DVOA ratings from before the DVOA era. I created a betting line based on the DVOA difference between the teams, adding 2.5 points for home field. That line was used to simulate wins and losses.

3) I adjusted the DVOA estimates to account for AFL/NFL differences for the first four Super Bowls. As others have discussed, any adjustment will be a little ad hoc, but about a seven point penalty seems right. So instead of being a pick ’em against Green Bay, the simulations make Kansas City a 7 point underdog against the Packers were the teams to meet in Super Bowl I.

4) Pre-Super Bowl championships count, but only for NFL teams. My condolences to the to the ’60 and ’61 Oilers, Lamar Hunt’s 1962 Dallas Texans, the ’63 Chargers, and the ’64 and ’65 Bills.

Let’s begin with a look at the 1950s. The inclusion of the % symbol would inhibit your ability to sort the table, so as a reminder, allow me to work through an example. In the decade of the ’50s, the Browns had a 0.2% chance of winning zero titles, a 2.3% chance of winning one, a 9.2% chance of winning two, and so on. Cleveland even had a 3.8% chance of winning 7 titles, and would be expected to win 4.12 championships.

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 E(Wins) CLE 0.2 2.3 9.2 20.6 28 23.7 12.1 3.8 4.122 RAM 13.6 37.8 34.4 12.6 1.6 0 0 0 1.507 NYG 12.4 39.8 37 10 0.8 0 0 0 1.471 DET 23.3 42.2 26.8 7.1 0.7 0 0 0 1.195 BAL 26.5 52.5 21 0 0 0 0 0 0.946 CHI 48.6 48.9 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.538 SF 78.3 21.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.217 PHI 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PIT 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WAS 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GB 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 STL 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The True Team of the Decade: Cleveland Browns

Making seven title games in the 1960s, you knew it had to be the Browns, but it’s hard to overstate how dominant they were. Cleveland won the same number of titles as the Lions (3), but that was on the low end for what they might have won. There was about a 40% chance the Browns would have won 5 or more titles in the decade. This jives with Chase’s research that Paul Brown’s teams underachieved in the NFL playoffs, even if such a statement seems weird to see. In any event, the amazing thing to see (even if it’s partially a function of the era) is 4.12 expected titles, more than twice as many as the Browns’ nearest competitor.

The What-Might-Have-Been Team: Cleveland Browns

Four title game losses. In the NFL playoffs, Otto Graham “only” posted a 4-3 record. And during the Jim Brown era, Cleveland lost to an inferior Giants team in the 1958 play-in game, missing the chance to play the Colts for the title. Even controlling for era, Cleveland could have been remembered more by the casual fan had they won the four or five that was within their grasp. If we have to go with a no-title team, the Bears are the best choice. Chicago was slightly better than the Giants in 1956 and lost a division playoff to the great Rams team in 1950.

The Unlikely Winner: Detroit Lions

The Lions also won three titles in the 1950s, despite having just 1.2 expected wins. Then Detroit traded Bobby Layne and the franchise has been too bad to get lucky.

1960s

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 E(Wins) GB 0.6 6.4 22.3 34.4 25.9 9.2 1.2 3.109 CLT 14.3 39.7 33.8 11.1 1.2 0 0 1.453 NYG 33.9 45.8 18.2 2.1 0 0 0 0.884 CLE 37.2 45.3 16 1.5 0 0 0 0.817 DAL 42.8 41.9 13.6 1.6 0 0 0 0.741 OAK 46.5 45 8.1 0.4 0 0 0 0.624 CHI 42.6 57.4 0 0 0 0 0 0.574 PHI 53.5 46.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.465 KC 59.8 34.1 5.8 0.3 0 0 0 0.465 MIN 61.4 38.2 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.39 RAM 77.8 20.9 1.2 0 0 0 0 0.234 NYJ 85.7 14.1 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.144 BUF 92.7 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 0.073 OIL 97.5 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.025 NO 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CRD 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ATL 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DET 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SF 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WAS 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PIT 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The True Team of the Decade: Green Bay Packers

Utterly dominant in 1961 and 1962, the Packers continued to be very good later in the decade when they won three of their titles. Green Bay had a total of 3.11 expected titles, a number the Pack overachieved due to their relatively fortunate titles in 1965 and 1967 [Chase note: On the other hand, had Paul Hornung not produced the worst kicking season ever in 1964, Green Bay would have had a chance for yet another title.] In 1965, the Packers won a playoff game against a possibly better Colts team in overtime. As Chase wrote about last December, the Colts were forced to play running back Tom Matte at quarterback due to injuries. The Packers were playing their backup, too, after an early injury to Bart Starr, but at least Zeke Bratkowski was a legitimate quarterback.

The What-Might-Have-Been Team: Baltimore Colts

There’s something a little weird about putting the Colts here, since the team won titles in ’58, ’59, and ’70, but it’s also easy to forget how good Baltimore was for the ten-year stretch when they didn’t win. The team’s 1.45 expected wins are the highest of a team that didn’t win a title in any decade, although that doesn’t seem to impact the legacy of that Colts quarterback. Baltimore had only a 14% chance to emerge from the ’60s without a title, and yet that’s exactly what happened. In addition to the loss to the Jets in Super Bowl III and the aforementioned loss to the Packers in 1965, the Colts also lost to an inferior Browns team in the 1964 title game.

1970s

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 E(Wins) DAL 11.2 29.6 32.3 18.9 6.5 1.4 0.2 1.849 PIT 15 33.3 30.8 15.4 4.6 0.8 0.1 1.639 OAK 30.5 39.9 21.8 6.5 1.1 0.1 0 1.082 MIA 31 42.9 21.1 4.6 0.5 0 0 1.007 RAM 36 40.1 18.6 4.6 0.7 0.1 0 0.942 MIN 45.6 38.4 13.3 2.4 0.3 0 0 0.734 WAS 58.9 34.5 6.1 0.4 0 0 0 0.481 BAL 63.2 30.7 5.5 0.5 0 0 0 0.433 SF 66.8 29 4 0.2 0 0 0 0.375 DEN 73.3 24.7 1.9 0 0 0 0 0.286 SD 75.5 24.6 0 0 0 0 0 0.245 DET 82.8 17.2 0 0 0 0 0 0.172 CIN 86.6 12.8 0.6 0 0 0 0 0.14 NE 86.6 13 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.138 PHI 91.4 8.5 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.088 GB 91.7 8.3 0 0 0 0 0 0.083 KC 92.7 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 0.073 STL 93.9 6 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.062 CHI 95.5 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.046 CLE 96.1 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 TB 96.1 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0.039 HOU 96.8 3.2 0 0 0 0 0 0.032 BUF 99.1 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0.009 ATL 99.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.005 NO 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYJ 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYG 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The New True Team of the Decade: Dallas Cowboys

Using estimated DVOA, we get a new true TOD for the 1970s. Dallas edges out Pittsburgh with 1.85 expected wins in the decade. The Cowboys are rewarded for consistent excellence throughout the decade, jumping from 1.38 expected titles when using the Simple Rating System. Pittsburgh still has about the same number of expected titles as with the SRS, now 1.64.

The New What-Might-Have-Been Team: Los Angeles Rams

DVOA likes the Rams more than the SRS did, and it likes the Vikings a fair bit less. The Rams had only a 36% chance of winning the zero titles in the decade that they did.

1980s

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 E(Wins) SF 9.1 27.1 32.9 21.1 7.8 1.7 0.2 1.973 CHI 25.6 44.8 23.9 5.2 0.5 0 0 1.101 CLE 46 39.3 12.7 1.9 0.1 0 0 0.709 MIA 46.6 38.9 12.4 1.9 0.1 0 0 0.7 WAS 49.8 40.4 9.1 0.7 0 0 0 0.608 CIN 57.8 36 6 0.2 0 0 0 0.486 DEN 60.9 32.5 6 0.5 0 0 0 0.461 SD 62.8 32.1 4.9 0.2 0 0 0 0.425 PHI 62.3 33.2 4.4 0.1 0 0 0 0.423 OAK 64.7 30.1 4.9 0.3 0 0 0 0.409 DAL 66.5 29.1 4.1 0.2 0 0 0 0.381 MIN 71.1 25.6 3.1 0.2 0 0 0 0.323 BUF 72 24.9 3 0.1 0 0 0 0.313 LAR 73.7 23.2 2.9 0.2 0 0 0 0.295 NYJ 77.2 21 1.8 0.1 0 0 0 0.247 NYG 77.8 20.5 1.7 0 0 0 0 0.239 ATL 79.5 20.2 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.209 SEA 88.6 11 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.117 NE 89.4 10.4 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.108 PIT 90.2 9.4 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.101 HOU 92 7.7 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.082 TB 92.2 7.7 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.08 NO 92.3 7.7 0 0 0 0 0 0.077 BAL/IND 94.8 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0.052 GB 96 4 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 DET 97.2 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 0.028 STL/PHO 99.2 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0.008 KC 99.4 0.6 0 0 0 0 0 0.006

The True Team of the Decade: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers continue to be the clear true TOD and emerge considerably stronger under DVOA than they did under SRS.

The New What-Might-Have-Been Team: Cleveland Browns

Using DVOA, the Browns edge out the Dolphins as the team from the ’80s with the most expected titles among the group that didn’t win a Super Bowl. I have the Browns now with only a 46% chance of winning no Super Bowls in the 1980s.

1990s

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 E(Wins) SF 18.3 35.5 29.1 13 3.5 0.6 0.1 1.497 DAL 25.1 40 25.3 8.1 1.3 0.1 0 1.209 WAS 27.6 65.4 6.7 0.2 0 0 0 0.796 PIT 42 40.5 14.7 2.6 0.2 0 0 0.786 GB 42.7 43.8 12.4 1.1 0 0 0 0.72 KC 47.9 39.1 11.4 1.5 0.1 0 0 0.667 DEN 47.2 40.4 11.2 1.1 0 0 0 0.665 BUF 58.6 33.3 7.3 0.8 0 0 0 0.504 RAM/STL 61.9 38.1 0 0 0 0 0 0.381 JAX 69.7 29 1.3 0 0 0 0 0.316 NYG 72.4 26.4 1.2 0 0 0 0 0.288 MIN 76.4 22.2 1.4 0 0 0 0 0.251 OAK 77 22.2 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.238 HOU 78.5 20.1 1.4 0 0 0 0 0.23 MIA 79.1 19 1.8 0.1 0 0 0 0.228 NYJ 81.5 18.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.185 PHI 84.6 14.7 0.7 0 0 0 0 0.161 ATL 87.3 12.5 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.129 SD 88.7 10.9 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.117 NE 90.7 9 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.095 TB 90.6 9.3 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.095 CAR 90.7 9.3 0 0 0 0 0 0.093 NO 91.9 7.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.082 CHI 94.5 5.4 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.055 DET 94.8 5.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.053 IND 94.9 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0.052 TEN 95.5 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.045 SEA 96.6 3.4 0 0 0 0 0 0.034 CLE 97.5 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.025 CIN 99.8 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 PHO/ARI 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAL 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The True Team of the Decade: San Francisco 49ers

The Niners stay on top with DVOA, but the gap between them and Dallas gets much closer. Now there’s only a 25% chance that Dallas would have earned zero rings.

The New What-Might-Have-Been Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

This is perhaps the single biggest change from using DVOA rather than the SRS. Now, the Steelers jump over the Bills and have the highest number of expected championships among teams with no titles in the ’90s. Pittsburgh had only a 42% chance of getting shut out in the decade and a 17% chance of winning multiple championships.

2000s

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 E(Wins) NE 22.3 43.5 26 7.1 1 0.1 0 1.211 PHI 28.2 39.5 23.2 7.5 1.4 0.2 0 1.15 PIT 41.3 41.8 14.6 2.1 0.1 0 0 0.78 IND 45.9 39.1 12.7 2.1 0.2 0 0 0.717 TEN 48.5 40.7 9.9 0.8 0 0 0 0.632 OAK 56.4 37 6.3 0.3 0 0 0 0.505 BAL 61.1 32.1 6.2 0.6 0 0 0 0.463 TB 62.4 33.1 4.3 0.2 0 0 0 0.423 SD 63 32.4 4.4 0.2 0 0 0 0.419 NYG 64.3 31 4.5 0.2 0 0 0 0.407 GB 69.1 26.6 4 0.3 0 0 0 0.355 CHI 68.3 28.7 3 0.1 0 0 0 0.348 STL 69.2 28.6 2.2 0 0 0 0 0.33 SEA 70.4 27.7 1.8 0 0 0 0 0.315 DAL 75.6 22.3 2 0.1 0 0 0 0.265 DEN 75.2 23.5 1.3 0 0 0 0 0.262 KC 74.9 25 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.253 NO 78.6 20.3 1.1 0 0 0 0 0.226 CAR 81.9 17.3 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.19 NYJ 84.3 14.7 1 0 0 0 0 0.167 MIN 85 14.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.155 MIA 87.9 11.7 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.124 SF 92.8 7 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.073 ATL 94.5 5.4 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.056 WAS 94.5 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.055 JAX 95.7 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 0.044 CIN 95.9 4.1 0 0 0 0 0 0.041 ARI 97.3 2.6 0 0 0 0 0 0.027 CLE 99.2 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0.008 BUF 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DET 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HOU 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The True Team of the Decade: New England Patriots

The Patriots still come out on top, but with DVOA it becomes a very close call over the Eagles. New England’s expected wins drop just a little in comparison to what we get when using SRS. As difficult as it may be to remember, both teams reached the same number (five) of conference championship games in the ’00s.

The What-Might-Have-Been Team: Philadelphia Eagles

On the other hand, DVOA causes the Eagles to rise and the Colts to drop. In fact, the Eagles now become the only team that won nothing and still mounted a real challenge for the top spot in expected wins in a decade. With DVOA, Philadelphia’s consistent excellence gave them a 72% chance of winning at least one title in the decade, along with a 32% chance of multiple titles. The 2000s Eagles, according to DVOA, are the best team to win no championships in a decade in the post-merger NFL.

Coming soon: I’ll break down the most unlikely winners and losers in NFL history. Going back to 1950, I identify the team that should have won the most titles overall, the teams that most outperformed their expectations, and the Super-Bowl-less team with the lowest chance (only 12%) of being in that sorry state. Each of these might not be the teams you expect. At least two of them were surprises to me.