Article content continued

“The most important issue is out of their hands, which is market access,” said Laura Lau, who helps manage $1.6 billion at Brompton Corp. in Toronto. “That’s the No. 1 issue by far.”

Rail Shipments

Kenney and Notley also differ on the idea of the government helping increase the province’s capacity to ship crude by rail. Notley has signed contracts to invest $3.7 billion in leasing rail cars and selling shipping service to producers that can’t get pipeline space for their oil. Kenney plans to kill that program, saying the private market can better solve that problem.

The government’s crude-by-rail plan is factored into current prices, and local crude — now trading close to a year high — may drop if the program is cancelled, Deloitte analyst Andrew Botterill said. Private companies may not have enough capital to make those investments, he said.

Beyond the energy industry, Kenney, 50, has campaigned on cutting corporate taxes and balancing the province’s budget within his first term. Notley, 54, has said those plans favour only the wealthy and would harm the province’s health care and education systems.

Investors appear comfortable with the prospect of a Kenney win. The relative yield on Alberta’s five-year bond maturing in 2024 has narrowed to 28 basis points over federal government debt, from a high of 50 basis points in January.

Photo by Codie McLachlan/The Canadian Press

The campaign has tapped into social issues as well. Notley, who ended a 44-year run of Conservative party rule with her victory in 2015, has criticized Kenney’s strong anti-abortion positions as well as his support for allowing schools to notify parents if their child joins a gay-straight alliance. Kenney’s campaign also has been beset by occasional offensive or controversial remarks by other members of his party.