Hello, everyone! Welcome to my latest Fantasy Baseball segment, Five for Friday! Here, I provide a straightforward look at five different players based on either their previous season performances, or by whatever they have currently pulled off during the course of the active regular season. The catch with this column is that it is entirely driven by you, the readers: each of the five players I cover in each installment are hand picked by Redditors on r/FantasyBaseball who’d like to gather more information about them as we approach draft day, and later on as we get underway with the 2019 MLB season. Therefore, it is my duty to roll up my sleeves and dig up as much pertinent information as the data, tables and graphs allow.

So, without further ado, let’s begin, shall we?

This week’s installment will be covering five different pitchers, each of which carry draft value of varying degrees – so for those getting the jump on early draft boards, I’m hoping articles like these will offer the help you need to succeed.

Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins



Over the last three years, the Minnesota Twins have thrown out the 10th worst starting rotation in all of baseball, according to Fangraphs WAR – but hiding in the cavernous shadows of collectively ugly sabermetrics statistics is the promising, mostly-realized, and still-developing upside of 24-year old Jose Berrios, owner of MLB’s 18th highest Fangraphs-adjusted Wins Above Replacement since 2017.



Riding one of the game’s hardest, filthiest curveballs, Berrios has been trending upward with improving strikeout and walk rates that are both well above average, while quickly establishing a solid floor for his durability by throwing 192.1 innings pitched this past season. Considering the “small market” lack of recognition relative to many of the game’s other (crazy stupid) young hurlers, you can make the case that, despite having already proven ready to at least embrace the challenge of becoming a staff ace, Berrios is a guy who’s been pretty underrated so far.



But what makes Berrios so interesting today – or at least, in my eyes – is not what he truly has accomplished; it’s what may be the catalyst for a natural regression. In a tale of two halves, Jose Berrios swayed back and forth from exceeding his pre-season value, to almost capsizing owners’ faith in his future contributions. In 127.1 pre-All-Star Break innings pitched last year, Berrios was a Top-20 starting pitcher, with a K-per-9 just a smidge under 9, with a 1.01 WHIP, and a fantastic walk rate. At this point, Fangraphs WAR had him ranked higher than AL Cy-Young award winner Blake Snell!! So, you could imagine how well he was rolling.

Which takes us to the second half: an abrupt shift in momentum during which the only positive carry over were his strikeouts. His walk rate absolutely ballooned, his BABIP regressed to the league average, his WHIP hovered around 1.40, and another big thing happened – but unlike his other failings, this one may have been directly tied to everything that went south for Berrios after the All-Star Break:

When it comes to the physical aspects of playing the game of baseball, consistency is everything – especially as a starting pitcher with plus stuff. What this graph above illustrates is a literal drop-off in routine: Berrios typically threw at a single release point for much of the 2018 season, suggesting his delivery was in concert with his timing, and that he was very much in control of his pitches. Regardless of the throwing motion, having one consistent release point is critical, and the surface numbers back this up plenty.

Although Berrios was still sufficient by the end of July (3.69 ERA, 16.4% K/BB ratio, 1.23 WHIP), his ROS fantasy value quickly whittled down to his strikeouts once his release point fell off. Both his four-seam fastball and sinker saw noticeable gains in Ball%, and fewer of them were in the strike zone as a result. His sinker, for example, was off the plate almost 10% more often in the second half than in the first. In addition, heatmaps provided by BrooksBaseball.net show that hitters chased outside the strike zone less frequently against Berrios – although when I broke those down by pitch type, he was basically hitting the same spots all year long.

What’s weird about the rest of the data I found is how it hardly differentiates between months. Berrios only threw a handful of fewer sinkers and changeups – his two worst pitches by wOBA and wRC+ – over the final three months of the season, and they both saw a jump in batting average against of over 70 points (although his changeup wound up serving up a significantly lower SLG. and ISO during the second half). Furthermore, his curveball remained plenty filthy despite the gradually lowered release point (17.5% whiff rate, 45.4% K rate), and even with increased wildness, his fastball fanned hitters in over 31% of ABs after the All-Star Break. I could also surmise that some of his struggles during the second half were fueled by bad luck, as his opposing average exit velocity on batted balls (84.7 MPH) was 7th lowest among all qualified starting pitchers – that’s insanely good.

The control that kept him deep in games and away from big innings appeared to have dissipated with his release point slipping off over the stretch, but there’s just not enough concrete evidence elsewhere to condemn Berries. I’m under the impression that he may have been wrestling with an injury of some kind, or was simply struggling with his mechanics, but the only true indication I could find for either claim is his drop-off in velocity over July and August – and even that’s offset by a course correction in September. It’s also important to note that he was less than eight innings removed from his first-ever 200 inning season months after turning 24, so there’s a really good chance fatigue probably just set in.

Jose Berrios was someone I was big on when he reinvented himself back in 2017, and my enthusiasm hasn’t wavered; in fact, I’m even more excited to see him continue to stretch out his K/BB ratio, and (hopefully) find the confidence necessary to rely on his changeup as a third pitch. I’m still gonna keep an eye on where he’s letting the ball go, but if his late-season descent has tanked his 2019 draft value a bit, then it’s all the more reason to dive right back in for another ride.

Josh James, SP, Houston Astros

One fun little challenge I embraced in following up with requests for Josh James is the subject surrounding his unreal velocity bump – and believe it or not, it was quite literally the result of a good night’s rest! According to an in-depth player dive by therunnersports.com, James was diagnosed with sleep apnea, a sleep disease in which a person’s breathing is repeatedly interrupted, which chews away oxygen from the body when one is asleep. James treated his condition by sleeping next to a CPAP machine, and the rest (at least for now) is history.

Following remarkably gains in his strikeout rate, and a fastball that is now averaging over 97(!) miles per hour thanks to improved levels of conditioning, James tore through AAA in 2018 like a bat out of hell, racking up 171 strikeouts over just 114.1 innings pitched – good for a K-per-nine rate of 13.5!

That being said, there isn’t much data to work with, considering James’ Major League profile spans a grand total of just 23 innings, but what is there right now is hella sexy. From a 14.3 swinging strike and 24.2% K/BB rate, to a 26.4% Hard hit rate and 3.00 Skills-Interactive ERA, he certainly made the most of his brief debut back in September. All three of his pitches registered a strikeout rate north of 25%, aided in large part to a steep velocity gap between his fastball and changeup, and fading slider that hitters had an extremely tough time getting a piece of (41.2% Contact rate).

Here’s another thing I particularly love about James: he’s already comfortable establishing his blazing fastball at the the top of the zone with authority, and getting his whiffs up there, too:





There’s no questioning the matter of chasing young talent like Josh James: despite the recent Wade Miley signing and the potential return of Colin McHugh to the starting rotation, he’s still currently 4th in the pecking order of the team’s depth chart, and even though he spent a great deal of his 2018 MLB season out of the bullpen his minor league profile suggests he could offer more value as a starter. I still believe he has much to prove before I become an official member of the fan club (mostly scouting related, like with the consistency of his delivery over the course of a start), but he understands his stuff, and he’s got everything working in his favor right now. I’ll be looking to offer more insights on James after we reach the start of the new season and there’s more to study, but for now I highly recommend drafting him everywhere he’s available, and reaching for him in deeper leagues.

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Mark my words: Tyler Glasnow is 2019’s Mike Foltynewicz. In a sense, they’re two pitchers of the same coin: hard-throwing righties known in their respective minor league systems for touching triple digits on the radar gun, but failing to make it matter in the game’s biggest stage upon first glance.

The latter pitcher drastically flipped his pitch usage and began featuring his best pitch so often that it became one of the league’s best overnight. The former had to sit down with a new pitching coach, with a new team, under a totally different atmosphere, to realize his potential. Looking back at this wonderful piece on Fangraphs where he talks shop about his new slider and enhanced mechanics, it’s easy to see the same 180 that’s currently propelling Folty’s career in Glasnow’s brief introduction with the Rays.

Now, if you read most of that piece, you’ll have noticed that Glasnow talked a lot about his new slider, as well as an increased confidence in pounding the top of the strike zone. For that, I present to thee some more graphs and heatmaps:

It’s not often a guy throws a hard breaking ball from a higher release point than his fastball – let alone that much – but at 6’8, Glasnow makes it work; so much so that he’s beginning to understand just how advantageous his physical height can be.

For starters, he ditched his sinker entirely. If I’m being totally honest here (and pardon my French when I say this), it sucked: back in 2017, hitters roasted it to the tune of a .422/.456/.663 slash line, and a 193 wRC+. This was a pitch Glasnow threw over a quarter of the time.

Secondly: again, his “heightened” mechanics took his curveball to another level over August and September of last year. With noticeable increases in dip (nearly two inches according to BrooksBaseball, and over four inches according to Fangraphs), his strikeout rate with the pitch over the final two months of the year skyrocketed to an absurd 55.2%. This was bolstered by an incredible 18.4% swinging strike rate, while hitters were literally missing the pitch nearly half of the time (45.5% Whiffs-per-Swing rate). This will far and away become one of the elite pitches in the game if he maintains its break.

Next up is his new fastball usage, detailed by the heat map above. At 10.6%, the whiff rate on the pitch is borderline decent, but that’s a marked improvement over it’s awful 6.28% mark a season prior. With a two-point jump in velocity (from 94.6 in 2017, to 96.8 in 2018), he got double the amount of whiffs on fastballs sitting at the top of the strike zone, and his ability to get ahead and rely on said tactic was easier for him as he upped his zone and first pitch strike rates, while throwing way less balls (32.54% in August & September 2018, down from 38.91% in 2017).

Glasnow only blessed us with flashes of his slider (1% usage rate), but the early returns are promising, with five Ks in eight at-bats without a single baserunner allowed. It’s without a doubt the last piece to the puzzle for Glasnow, so one can only hope he finds enough comfort in it as a predominately used third offering. It’s definitely a good sign that he only began testing it out at the tail end of last season, and could now mess around with it a bit more during Spring Training.

I’d be lying if I said Tyler Glasnow wasn’t someone I’m extremely excited to watch in 2019. He’s already made himself at home in Tampa Bay, with an okay 4.21 ERA that falls down to a tidy 3.11 mark if you disregard his September 5th implosion out in Toronto (0.2 IP, 7 ER). Thanks to plenty of key adjustments, his whiffs are trending all the way upwards, while his peripheral stats are screaming for a post-hype turnaround. This one’s an easy buy – particularly in deep leagues.

Kirby Yates, RP, San Diego Padres

Thanks to a wealth of woefully underrated late-inning arms commanding the ninth inning over the years, the Padres have recently developed a reputation in fantasy for offering great mid/late-round closers. Kirby Yates took over the role late last season after the Indians stripped away Brad Hand, and not only was the transition smooth as butter, he turned his already-dominant 2018 up a couple notches:

Padres fans are definitely aware of this already, but for those at home wondering what led to Yates finding another gear: it’s in his new splitter. It’s something he began toying around with back in 2017, when his main out pitch was still the slide piece (19.7% swinging strike rate, 36.5% K rate). At the time, however, that same offering stunted his production as a variable late-inning arm (.288/.317/.610 opposing slash line, .380 opposing wOBA).

Right around the end of last summer, he ditched it entirely, and the results – if not in the graph above – speak for themselves. He only threw two sliders in September, upping his splitter and fastball usage in the process. Both pitches saw huge jumps (11.8% to 17.4% for the fastball, 28.21 to 33.3% for the splitter) in whiff rate, with the opposing batting average on his fastball falling all the way down to .063!

Again, this all mainly happened because of his splitter, a devastating finishing punch that kept opposing hitters to a minuscule .063 ISO, and a whopping 27 wRC+, while dazzling the saber metric eye with immaculate strikeout peripherals (42.4% K/BB ratio, 25.7% swinging strike rate). Including his other two outings in July and August, Yates only allowed six hits and two earned runs in his 8 saves, while honing his craft in September to the tune of a 2.38 ERA (2.01 FIP), 15.09 K/9 (44.2% K rate), and 0.79 WHIP.

This is perhaps the most indicative of the type of reliever we should all expect this season, as Yates as fully refined his pitch mix, dropped his slider altogether, and settled in comfortably with his nasty splitter. Let’s not also forget that his average fastball velocity (94 MPH) was at a career high in 2018; an achievement that’ll go a long way towards keeping hitters honest. And hey: worst comes to worst, Craig Stammen is worth a stash if things get hairy, and Bud Black decides to mix things up in the ninth inning. Stammen saw huge jumps in his swinging strike and K rates last season after deciding to tuck his four-seamer away and throw more curveballs.

Cody Allen, RP, Los Angeles Angels

There’s no easy way to say that Cody Allen took us all by surprise in all of the worst ways last season. After being just two wins less valuable (6.3 FgWAR) than Craig Kimbrel (8.3 FgWAR) with a 2.62 ERA (3.10 xFIP) and 124 Saves between 2014 and 2017, the former Indians closer had to claw his way out of a miserable final three months during which his 4.85 xFIP was 22nd highest out of 164 relievers who pitched at least 20 innings or more.

I could literally start at any surface stat with Allen and find reasons for concern, but his 12.6% K/BB rate is perhaps the most alarming of them all. Like most late-inning relievers, Allen never exactly had pinpoint command, but he was very well capable of controlling his walks and preventing big innings on a consistent basis. Last season, however, he just couldn’t confidently find the strikezone – and I think I know why:





Allen is reliant on having a big curveball that keeps opposing hitters off balance, and in his best years it has effortlessly shut the door down by itself – but we are now looking at a steep three-year decline in strikeout rate on the curve (from 64.5% in 2015, to 41% in 2018), and an almost 10% dip in O-Swing/Chase rate (from 41.6% in 2015, to 32.6% in 2018).

It’s still a good pitch that generates quite a few whiffs by itself; but it’s no longer elite. For starters, it lost almost two inches of drop over the course of 2018, while hitters, on top of swinging more and missing less, managed to increase their success against it across the board: the opposing OPS on Allen’s curveball jumped up nearly 200 points between 2017 and 2018, with a 70-point boost in ISO. Additionally, it saw very noticeable jumps in Ball%, BIP (Balls in Play) percentage, flyball rate, and weighted on-base average. From a results standpoint, Allen’s best pitch has been gradually becoming worse, while, like his fastball, has also been losing its zip.

When opposing hitters are much less afraid of your best pitch and are adjusting to it, things tend to fall in their favor more often – which is a dangerous formula to live on as a two-pithcer relief pitcher whose O-Contact rate shoots up over 12 percent, and whose first-pitch strike rate just happened to fall to a career low (53.6%). These are the reasons why Allen struggled with the base on balls in 2018, and put up his absolute worst control and run prevention estimates as a professional ballplayer. These are the reasons why we are now witnessing a dominant closer running face first into a giant wall of regression.

One hopes for Cody Allen to bounce back in a big way in 2019, with a new ballclub and months of offseason layoff now behind him. My retort against this, however, is that it he has to make a change for himself in order for that to come to fruition. He’s been trotting the same stuff his whole career, and the warning signs were billowing a bit – but now they’ve suddenly shrieked into his numbers, and in an age where relief pitchers remain elite by either rediscovering their velocity or finding a new pitch on the road to success (see: Yates, Kirby), it’s not as easy to bank on a young-but-aging Allen to just “figure it out” because he had it going on in the past.

What players would you like me to cover next week? What are your thoughts, questions or concerns about the players I talked about here? Feel free to leave a comment below with suggestions, or to get the discussion going on the five guys I’ve mentioned today. Stay tuned for more Five For Friday as we continue to approach Spring Training (up next: hitters!)