These are the best times ever for long-suffering supporters of the federal NDP, who today are almost giddy in their confidence that the party and its leader Thomas Mulcair are on an unstoppable roll.

Their joy is fuelled by recent national polls that show the NDP leading the Conservatives and Liberals and that suggest the NDP could lead a minority government with Mulcair as prime minister.

But their enthusiasm may be overdone, given that there are signs the NDP and Mulcair could be facing some tough times ahead.

Primary among the signals is the fact that growth in NDP poll support has been stalled for three months, with its popularity stuck at 31-33 per cent since mid-May when it jumped after the surprise victory by the provincial NDP in Alberta.

Also Mulcair is perceived to have performed poorly in the only leaders’ debate so far. Another bad debate outing could be disastrous in terms of public perception of him as a potential prime minister.

Worse, the Conservatives are expected to unleash a furious barrage of attacks on Mulcair’s perceived weak spots, or vulnerabilities.

These weak spots include:

1) Quebec separation: Many Canadians could never vote for Mulcair because of the NDP’s policy that Quebec could split from Canada with a referendum vote of just 50-per-cent-plus-one. Mulcair insists he is “proud” of this policy and says he would rip up the federal Clarity Act that declares Quebec can start the process to separate only if a “clear majority” of voters in the province voted for secession. NDP supporters dismiss voter concerns over Mulcair’s position as “overblown.”

2) Tax-and-spend image: NDP loyalists consider this issue as “trite,” but already Harper is hammering away at it, claiming Mulcair would raise taxes and spend countless billions on programs such as a national $15-a-day child care plan. Already, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been mocking the NDP, saying it doesn’t know what the tax rates are, “it just knows everybody’s taxes have to be higher.” Expect lots more of this in the weeks ahead.

3) Pipeline and oilsands projects: Mulcair is in a tough spot here, having to convince voters he is pro-development at the same time as having to deal with NDP voters who vehemently oppose oil pipelines and want to leave oil from the Alberta oilsands in the ground. Critics have already seized on this issue, suggesting Mulcair says one thing in Quebec about the proposal to move western oil through the Energy East pipeline to eastern refineries and another thing elsewhere in the country.

4) Lack of an experienced, senior team: Mulcair wants to portray the NDP as a government-in-waiting, with a strong team of potential cabinet ministers. Mulcair has indeed recruited few high-profile candidates and Harper has already criticized the Quebec NDP caucus as ineffective and lacking any stars. In recent days, though, Mulcair has recruited Andrew Thompson, a former Saskatchewan finance minister, to run in Toronto against federal Finance Minister Joe Oliver and former MP Olivia Chow to run in Toronto against sitting Liberal MP Adam Vaughan.

5) Internal splits within the NDP: The NDP is divided internally between old-style lefties dismayed by the party’s move to the mushy middle and by pragmatists, including Mulcair, who see a more centrist route as the only path to victory. So far, Mulcair has been able to keep this split under wraps, but if the polls start to slip then these divisions could start to crop up in a big, public way.

With eight weeks still to go in the campaign, Harper will soon be ratcheting up the attacks on these weak spots.

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How Mulcair counters the attacks could well determine whether those giddy federal NDP diehards — so accustomed to sitting in opposition — will at last be celebrating on election night.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Sunday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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