This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of January 12-13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.

Despite neither Leader having positive job approval, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 6% since October 2014) now narrowly leads Prime Minister Tony Abbott 41% (down 3%) as the ‘Better PM’ according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights January 12-13, 2015.

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Prime Minister Tony Abbott has lost popularity with a majority of electors 52% (up 5%) now disapproving of his handling of his job as Prime Minister, only 37% (down 7%) approve while 11% (up 2%) can’t say.

Australian electors have a similar view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling his job as Opposition Leader; 40% (down 2%) disapprove and 37% (unchanged) approve although a much higher 23% (up 2%) still can’t say how they view the Opposition Leader after more than a year in the job.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows men are equally divided on the two leaders with Abbott 43% (down 6%) cf. Shorten 43% (up 9%) as ‘Better PM’ while women slightly favour Shorten 43% (up 2%) over Abbott 40% (unchanged).

When judging Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister, a majority of men 51% (up 8%) disapprove while only 39% (down 12%) approve. Similarly, more women disapprove 52% (up 1%) than approve 35% (down 3%) of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister.

For Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader: Less than half of men 42% (down 3%) disapprove of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job while 39% (down 1%) approve. Among women: 38% (down 1%) disapprove cf. 36% (up 2%) approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows neither political leader enjoys widespread support – although Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 6% since October 2014) is narrowly preferred to Prime Minister Tony Abbott (41%, down 3%) as the ‘Better PM’ by Australian electors. “However, both Leaders are rated poorly for their handling of their respective jobs. Clearly more Australian electors disapprove (52%) of Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister than approve (37%) and the same applies for Shorten as Opposition Leader: Disapprove (40%) cf. approve (37%). “In contrast to previous Morgan Polls on this question dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Abbott is widespread with a negligible ‘gender gap’ when electors assess Prime Minister Abbott’s job performance - a majority of both men (51%) and women (52%) disapprove of Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week, January 12/13, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

For the poll watchers

In addition to interviewing electors on how they view the leadership of the two major parties the Morgan Poll also measured voting intention for all electors which showed a two-party preferred result over the last two nights of ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%). This result is similar to the multi-mode Morgan Poll result of the past two weekends (January 3/4 & 10/11, 2015) which showed the ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%).



Better Prime Minister: Abbott v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Tony Abbott and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Abbott or Mr. Shorten?”

PM Gillard

v Abbot Prime Minister Rudd

v Abbott Prime Minister Abbott

v Shorten June 11/12,

2013 July 16/17,

2013 Aug 12/13,

2013 Aug 28/29,

2013 Oct 18-20,

2013 June 4-6,

2014 Sep 30-Oct 2,

2014 Jan 12-13,

2015 % % % % % % % % Prime Minister Gillard/ Rudd/ Abbott 50 52 46 43 40 38 44 41 Abbott/ Abbott/ Shorten 43 36 43 44 36 43 37 43 Gillard/ Rudd/ Abbott lead 7 16 3 (1) 4 (5) 7 (2) Other / Can’t say 7 12 11 13 24 19 19 16 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Electors 18+ Analysis by Sex & Age Jan 12-13,

2015 Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ % % % % % % % % Abbott 41 43 40 34 40 36 40 56 Shorten 43 43 43 51 45 51 42 26 Abbott lead (2) - (3) (17) (5) (15) (2) 30 Neither/ Can’t say 16 14 17 15 15 13 18 18 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Electors 18+ Analysis by Federal Voting Intention Jan 12-13,

2015 L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Ind/

Others Can’t say % % % % % % % Abbott 41 86 10 5 44 29 25 Shorten 43 7 77 78 7 32 - Abbott lead (2) 79 (67) (73) 37 (3) 25 Neither/ Can’t say 16 7 13 17 49 39 75 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Approval of Leaders – Tony Abbott v Bill Shorten

Prime Minister: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

PM Julia Gillard Prime Minister Kevin Rudd Prime Minister Tony Abbott Nov 27-29, 2012 June 11/12, 2013 July 16/17,

2013 Aug 12/13,

2013 Aug 28/29,

2013 June 4-6,

2014 Sep 30-Oct 2,

2014 Jan 12-13,

2015 % % % % % % % % Approve 42 27 45 40 36 34 44 37 Disapprove 48 65 40 49 53 59 47 52 Approve -

Disapprove (6) (38) 5 (9) (17) (25) (3) (15) Can’t say 10 8 15 11 11 7 9 11 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Electors 18+ Analysis by Sex & Age Jan 12-13,

2015 Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ % % % % % % % % Approve 37 39 35 36 32 28 36 57 Disapprove 52 51 52 54 56 60 50 35 Approve -

Disapprove (15) (12) (17) (18) (24) (32) (14) 22 Can’t say 11 10 13 10 12 12 14 8 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Electors 18+ Analysis by Federal Voting Intention Jan 12-13,

2015 L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Ind/

Others Can’t say % % % % % % % Approve 37 76 10 3 35 25 24 Disapprove 52 14 77 94 44 58 41 Approve -

Disapprove (15) 62 (67) (91) (9) (33) (17) Can’t say 11 10 13 3 21 17 35 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Opposition Leader: Bill Shorten

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Shorten is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as Opposition Leader Nov 27-29, 2012 June 11/12, 2013 July 16/17,

2013 Aug 12/13,

2013 Aug 28/29,

2013 June 4-6,

2014 Sep 30-Oct 2,

2014 Jan 12-13,

2015 % % % % % % % % Approve 28 41 38 42 41 35 37 37 Disapprove 63 51 54 48 51 45 42 40 Approve -

Disapprove (35) (10) (16) (6) (10) (10) (5) (3) Can’t say 9 8 8 10 8 20 21 23 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Electors 18+ Analysis by Sex & Age Jan 12-13,

2015 Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ % % % % % % % % Approve 37 39 36 31 33 39 39 37 Disapprove 40 42 38 44 32 39 37 48 Approve -

Disapprove (3) (3) (2) (13) 1 - 2 (11) Can’t say 23 19 26 25 35 22 24 15 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Electors 18+ Analysis by Federal Voting Intention Jan 12-13,

2015 L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Ind/

Others Can’t say % % % % % % % Approve 37 35 49 30 - 20 5 Disapprove 40 51 25 41 71 53 37 Approve -

Disapprove (3) (16) 24 (11) (71) (33) (32) Can’t say 23 14 26 29 29 27 58 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





For further information:

Contact Office Mobile Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.