Is the NDP’s slide in Ontario over?

Since the start of the marathon federal election campaign on August 3, EKOS’ weekly polls in the province have shown small but steady declines in NDP support: from 31.5 per cent, to 30.2 per cent, to 26.8 per cent, to 23.3 per cent.

With 121 of 338 seats up for grabs in Ontario, it’s been the kind of decline that — if sustained — could prevent the NDP from winning on October 19.

That halted in the most recent EKOS poll, however — from September 9 to 15 — which saw NDP support rise back to 29 per cent.

While that still puts them below the Liberals (30.5) and the Conservatives (31.4), a 3.5 per cent margin of error means it’s essentially a three-way tie.

But there are a few things to take into consideration.

The Liberals seem to have received a small boost following the first Maclean’s debate, and the latest poll doesn’t cover Thursday night’s debate on the economy.

Though that could shift the numbers again, in large part EKOS President Frank Graves attributes the Liberals’ recent improving fortunes in Ontario — this week’s numbers being an exception — to Trudeau’s position on deficit-spending plans — investments in infrastructure — that he thinks could be resonating with the electorate in Ontario.

“If you recall, that is basically the same positioning that Wynne used very successfully in Ontario in the last election,” Graves said.

Ultimately, though, Graves thinks it’s still far too early to tell.

“Ontario is really fragmented regionally, and there are an awful lot of inconclusive races. I just don’t think it’s predictable at all,” he said.