Replacing Trent Franks: GOP nervous even in heavily Republican Arizona district

Ronald J. Hansen | The Republic | azcentral.com

PHOENIX — Voters in Arizona's solidly GOP 8th Congressional District are getting something they haven’t had for a long time: a new representative. They're also getting unusual attention as Republicans across the country see their candidates falter while Democrats stand united against President Trump.

Either Republican Debbie Lesko or Democrat Hiral Tipirneni will replace former Rep. Trent Franks, who represented the area for 15 years before resigning in disgrace over sexual misconduct allegations in December.

Outside groups, mainly aligned with the GOP, have invested in the race in recent weeks, raising questions of how worried the party is about losing the seat. U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican, and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, are reportedly coming to Arizona for Lesko fundraisers.

Meanwhile, national media outlets have focused on the April 24 special election, partly because of a Democratic upset win last month in a similarly conservative Pennsylvania district.

Trump took the district in southwest Pennsylvania by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016. But Conor Lamb reversed that trend, squeaking by with enough votes to replace former GOP Rep. Tim Murphy, who like Franks, stepped down amid a sex scandal.

As the Arizona race heads into its final stretch, the area's mostly older and more conservative voters will decide how much of a departure from the past they want at once.

Lesko, 59, who spent nine years in the Arizona Legislature, would largely continue the conservative priorities favored by Franks and President Trump. She is an advocate for further empowering private schools and charter schools and promises to push for stepped-up border security.

Tipirneni, 50, a physician and political newcomer, offers what she characterizes as an evidence-based approach to policy that most often leads to longstanding Democratic priorities. She wants universal health care coverage — but not what is often called socialized medicine — and wants to block GOP efforts to cut into programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Lesko is unburdened by the allegations of sexual misconduct that did in Franks late last year, but has faced allegations of flouting federal campaign finance rules.

Tipirneni wants health care to be a central issue for voters and offers her experience as bringing expertise as well. Republicans say she has personally profited from the Affordable Care Act, a system they see as an unaffordable drain on the public.

For now, polling suggests Lesko remains the favorite, even though national Republicans have poured more than $600,000 into the race in recent weeks.

“Under normal conditions you would have to say that Republicans would hold the seat, but I’m not sure these are normal conditions,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which tracks races nationally. “When you look at the overall trend of these special elections over the last 14 months, Republicans find new and different ways to make races that shouldn’t be competitive more competitive.”

Like other political observers, Gonzales revised the seat's rating from "solidly Republican" to "likely Republican" weeks ago.

Lesko acknowledged she is still uncomfortable "cold-calling people you don't know and asking them for money." Tipirneni has partially sidestepped the money issue by loaning her campaign at least $70,000 of her own money during the primary.

Earlier this week, the Congressional Leadership Fund, linked to Ryan, committed $65,000 to helping Lesko, bringing its total to $102,000 in the race.

The Republican National Committee has kicked in nearly $324,000; the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent another $113,000, mainly for TV ads.

That’s modest compared to the $10 million groups spent to help doomed Republican Rick Saccone in Pennsylvania’s special election last month.

Groups supporting Democrats have not brought outside money to the race, suggesting they still view it as out of reach. They didn’t spend much in Pennsylvania’s special election, but did kick in nearly $2 million.

Still, the race hasn't fallen off the national radar.

"President Trump is the 'X' factor, no matter how the White House tries to spin it," Gonzales said. "If Hillary Clinton were sitting in the Oval Office, I don't think we'd be talking about this race, even if Trent Franks did what he did. The energy President Trump has created on the Democratic side is really pretty phenomenal, and it's what's pulling these races into play."

The 8th district covers the West Valley from New River south to Goodyear and from Peoria west past the Sun cities. It includes Luke Air Force Base and is entirely within Maricopa County.

More: Conor Lamb won Pennsylvania's 18th district. Tuesday he filed in the state's 17th District

More: Rick Saccone concedes to Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania district Trump won by 20 points

More: Rep. Trent Franks says he will resign immediately, citing wife's illness

Follow Ronald J. Hansen on Twitter: @ronaldjhansen