You’ve missed me. You almost certainly don’t know that, but you have. And the reason you don’t know is, first, because you’re almost certainly a schmuck who doesn’t get probability theory – and, second, because you don’t have skin in the game. Me, I always have skin in the game. That’s what makes me special. That’s why I made millions as a financial trader. That’s why I’m so much cleverer than everyone else. If you take just one thing away from this book, make it this: Big Nick knows best and is doing you a favour by writing it.

Skin in the Game is the latest in my collection of works that I’ve grandiosely called Incerto. Remember Antifragile and The Black Swan? They were mine. People said they wouldn’t sell, but they became massive. That’s not boasting, that’s just the truth. I don’t need to boast because I’m brilliant enough without it. So if you want to know why everything you always thought was right is actually wrong, read on.



Most people want to con you. That’s because they have no skin in the game. What is skin in the game? It’s having skin in the game. Having a vested interest in an outcome. First, though, a word about what this book is. It’s about having skin in the game. It’s about understanding who to trust and who to avoid. So I’m going to level with you right from the start. That way we’ve both got skin in the game. This book is 25% probability theory, 25% classical anecdotes, 25% stating the bleeding obvious, and 25% complete bullshit.

Who are the worst offenders? Politicians, advisers, middle managers, university lecturers, architects and every liberal pinko you’ve ever met. That’s you, Steven Pinker. Man’s a halfwit. There’s only room for one genius round here and that’s me. None of these guys have any skin in the game.

Time was when leaders would actually lead their countries into battle. Caesar, Hannibal. They were men putting their bodies on the line. Even Hitler. Say, what you like about Adolf – and the man did have his faults – but at least he was prepared to top himself when everything went tits up. That’s having skin in the game. George W Bush and Tony Blair had no skin in the game when they went to war against Iraq and have completely messed up the entire world as a result. If they’d had to fight or send one of their kids to the front line, maybe they would have acted differently.

Having skin in the game means reading the Code of Hammurabi. And, because I’ve got skin in the game, I didn’t trust other people’s translations. I took time out to learn the ancient Babylonian script myself. Turns out the translations were pretty accurate after all. But better safe than sorry. Anyway, want to know why Islam is taking over the world? It’s because Muslims have more skin in the game. They are prepared to shout loudest and bully people into becoming Muslim. Christians take note.

Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Allen Lane, £20)

Another example. Almost every academic you are going to meet is a complete and utter fraud. Scientists don’t do science any more. They do scientism. Economists don’t do economics. They do economism. They just come up with a whole load of ideas they can all agree upon to keep themselves in a job. Architects are the same. If they were crushed to death under a pile of rubble when one of their buildings fell down, they might try harder to design less crap. They all call themselves experts but they are anything but.

So, apart from me, who does have skin in the game? Artisans. People who make stuff and whose survival depends on their reputations. The cockney guys I meet down the gym – like me, they can bench press 200kg. That’s skin in the game. Donald Trump also has skin in the game. People voted for him because they thought he was genuine. He may have lost billions of dollars in stupid investments but at least it was only his own money. That’s skin in the game.

Do doctors have skin in the game? A moot point. Some might lose sleep if they accidentally kill you, but it’s you that winds up dead. All of us are going to need a doctor at some point, though, so we have to prepare. Me, I would go for the one with blood on his shirt and no certificates on the wall over some slick shyster with an easy bedside manner. Why? Because the first guy is going to have worked a lot harder to attract patients and can probably bench press more than me.

I’ll leave you with this thought. If 100 people play Russian roulette once, more than 80% will survive. But if one person plays Russian roulette 100 times, he’s going to croak. That’s probability. So stay safe, keep some skin in the game, do weights, keep some skin in the game – and don’t listen to that asshole Steven Pinker.

Digested read, digested: The skin end of the wedge.

