Japan is bracing for a severe butter shortage that threatens cake making across the country, echoing last year’s dairy disaster that left supermarket shelves empty.

The Japan Dairy Association is warning that demand for butter will outstrip supply by more than 7,000 tonnes, prompting the government to ready emergency imports.

Butter shortages last year provoked anguish for shoppers, especially in the runup to the Christmas cake-baking season, with immediate rationing introduced at every store that had a delivery.

“The government plans to have butter imports on a scale sufficient for stable supply,” said farming minister Yoshimasa Hayashi on Tuesday, adding that details of the emergency measure would be announced this week.

At the root of the problem is a wider dairy deficit that sees farmers prioritising the raw material for sales of liquid milk. Herds have been cut over recent decades as demand has dropped as the Japanese population ages.

Last year’s butter imports – 7,000 tonnes in May and a further 3,000 tonnes in September – were the first time in years that Tokyo had raided foreign dairy markets.