The way to think of today is, I think, twofold. First, events have caught up with China. Three years ago I wrote the following: “Some analysts write as if China had been unaffected by the world recession of 2009. It did not. Instead, it opted out, deploying a massive stimulus package and central direction to keep things running much as if there had been no world recession. I think of China as like a company that, when its largest customer went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, decided to respond by keeping its machines running full pelt and filled up its warehouse. Now that’s all very well if its big customer restructures and comes out of Chapter 11 healthy and demanding the same stuff, or if it finds a new big customer. But if it doesn’t, that stuff in the warehouse is soon going to rot. In much the same way, China has gambled on its big markets – Europe and the US – recovering quickly. If they don’t recover fast enough, the great Chinese gamble will go bad.”