Hatch has some daunting numbers to overcome if he wants to win an 8th term

As reported last week in UtahPolicy.com, U.S. Orrin Hatch may take until the end of October to announce for sure whether he will run for re-election next year or not.

A recent Salt Lake Tribune/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey by Dan Jones & Associates finds that 78 percent of Utahns DON’T want the 83-year-old Hatch to run again, with 19 percent saying he should seek a record-setting 8th term in office.

That is a surprising number – 78 percent of voters believing you should not run again.

When UtahPolicy digs into the demographics of that survey, the numbers look worse for Hatch – worse almost to the point that it would be foolish for Hatch to run again:

Among members of his own Utah Republican Party, 71 percent say Hatch should not run again but should retire.





Only 27 percent, or one in four Republicans, want Hatch to run again.





Of course, you wouldn’t expect Democrats to want Hatch to run again, and they don’t, 91-8 percent.





But Hatch also is not picking up unaffiliated voters – the politically independent want Hatch not to run again, 85-13 percent.

As has been noted in UtahPolicy previously, Hatch has a problem with his party’s right wing – even though the senator has been a firm supporter of GOP President Donald Trump.

Jones finds:

Among those who self-identified to Jones that they are “very conservative,” only 20 percent want Hatch to run again, while 77 percent don’t.





Among those who are “somewhat conservative,” Hatch finds only a small betterment, 72 percent say he should retire, 26 percent say run again.

Finally, Hatch several times this spring and summer, in saying he was planning on running again unless his or his wife’s health precluded it, the senator said his church needs him in the Senate to protect freedom of religion.

That would be the LDS Church, headquartered in Salt Lake City; with more than 60 percent of Utahns say they are faithful Mormons.

Among his Brethren (fellow active Mormons), Jones finds:

76 percent say Hatch should retire.





Only 23 percent say he should run again next year.

For about any other politician these numbers would be a death knell – such an overwhelming call for retirement must be heeded.

But Hatch has a campaign war chest of more than $4 million, and only Democratic Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson has declared her Senate candidacy for 2018.

And while dozens of Utah Republicans would likely run if Hatch got out of the race, so far in 2017 no Republican has announced he’s running next year.

If Hatch does run, there’s little doubt he would be challenged from his right – since that is his perceived weakness among the Republican electorate.

With SB54’s dual route to a primary, Hatch would, by gathering 28,000 signatures of registered GOP voters, get on the June 2018 Republican Party primary ballot.

Whether he could be beaten there is anyone’s guess now – with all that time and all that Hatch money out there.

But if there was a “mainstream” Republican or two on that primary ballot – being viable choices to Hatch – then the senator could have a real problem, if today’s poll numbers bear out.

For only 27 percent of Utah Republicans want Hatch to run again.

In the Tribune/Hinckley survey, Jones polled 614 adults from July 18-20. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.95 percent.