Analysts believe that if this trend continues then the stage is set for a BJP victory in the assembly elections due in Manipur in 2017. Analysts believe that if this trend continues then the stage is set for a BJP victory in the assembly elections due in Manipur in 2017.

Despite the commonly known fact that the BJP in Manipur has been growing slowly and steadily in numbers since the last Lok Sabha elections, Tuesday’s results in assembly by-elections that saw the party capture both seats that went to the polls– that is Thangmeiband in the heart of Imphal city and Thongju – have caught many by surprise. Analysts believe that if this trend continues then the stage is set for a BJP victory in the assembly elections due in Manipur in 2017.

While the elections by themselves were not meant to be significant, the results are telling. Elections in Manipur, as is the case in many of the states in the north east, are more often than not based on money than on ideology. The north-eastern states have been known in the past to vote into power whichever party is in power at the Centre. The idea is that if the ruling party in the state is the same as the ruling party in New Delhi, then it becomes easier for the state to receive monetary benefits.

Having said this, the Manipur state BJP has been riddled with a number of issues – allegations of corruption hurled at the senior BJP leaders by various civil society organisations, internal strife and the lack of strong popular leaders. So the results have come as a shock to many, especially the ruling Manipur Congress. Congress insiders say that the Congress party in Manipur, like its rival BJP, is also a victim of internal strife amongst its leaders. With the incumbent chief minister and the Congress’s strongest leader Okram Ibobi Singh suffering from ill health for some time now, it is uncertain whether he will contest the next elections. In case he doesn’t contest, it’ll leave the

Congress virtually rudderless.

What is likely to happen over the next year before the 2017 elections is the defection of Congress leaders to the BJP – as has happened in Assam. While a number of Congress leaders have already shifted, these defections have so far been restricted to disgruntled leaders who were not given tickets in the last election. This time, it is believed that even leaders with victories tucked under the belts, and sitting MLAs will start to move out of the party unless the Congress is able to resolve its internal issues quickly.

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