European diplomats in London watching the government’s Brexit agony have conveyed a mixture of despair, and almost ghoulish fascination, at the state of British politics, with one saying it is as melodramatic as a telenovela, full of subplots, intrigue, tragedy and betrayal.

EU figures rule out concessions as Theresa May postpones Brexit vote Read more

“Anyone who says they know what is going to happen next must have a magic ball,” said one diplomat, who is charged with sending measured analysis back to his national capital setting out what is going to happen next.

He recalled the fate of the Japanese diplomat who confidently told Tokyo that the leave campaign was about to lose the EU referendum in 2016. “Anything could happen, because in Britain these days anything does happen,” said one ambassador.

But the European diplomats have also been gripped by the drama, one recalled watching a parliamentary debate on her smartphone as she was driven through the gates of Buckingham Palace for Christmas drinks with the Queen.

Another said: “I do not know what has happened to you. Britain was supposed to be the level-headed one, but this is crazy and out of control. He said he feared no one was listening to Theresa May anymore: “She has no charisma, ingenuity or spark. She cannot win an argument here or in Europe.”

The ambassador was equally scathing about Labour’s “constructive ambiguity” on Brexit. “Where is the leadership? This is serious,” he said.

But for some of the professional politics watchers in the diplomatic corps, it has also been comic. One Estonian diplomat tweeted a picture of a man attempting a golf shot on ice, slipping and then crashing through to the water. “Brexit in a nutshell,” she suggested.

Triinu Rajasalu (@triinurajasalu) Brexit in a nutshell https://t.co/kr2RYEpzQN

Another ambassador expressed frustration with the conflicting signals and division, saying: “Tip O’Neill once said all politics is local, and this is really an extension of Tory local politics into the field of foreign policy.

“We are watching the culmination of a 40-year Tory civil war, and yet it is damaging Europe since we have so much to do on terrorism, the [EU] budget and populism. Who wants this dragged out? Who claps at this? [Vladimir] Putin, and maybe [Donald] Trump?”

There has also been frustration bordering on resentment at the way in which the deal struck between the EU, and the UK has been sold, even if there is a determination to make no further substantive concessions on issues such as the Northern Ireland backstop.

“We carried this baby very carefully across the floor for you, we have done everything possible. Many countries were very cross with [the EU chief negotiator] Michel Barnier, but it was agreed unity was critical so we all went along. The negotiations are over. If Britain reopens issues, other countries will do the same”.

Another ambassador found the negative reaction to May’s deal “not very unexpected”, adding: “There has been this gap in perception between the British and European politicians from the very beginning. There is so little understanding here that European states were not happy with the withdrawal treaty. They don’t feel like they have won.

“Many of them have misgivings, and in many ways, the British have got everything they wanted. But there is a determination to turn the EU into the enemy, which is very dangerous since relatively the threat is Russia. That is the real and active danger we share.

“The problem goes back to May’s speech to her party conference in Birmingham with the red lines. There was no diplomatic preparation in advance and no thinking about what it would mean. We are now in lose lose. It is very depressing.

“The people that I do not understand or get are the Democratic Unionists. If they lose this, it will be worse for them. What they are saying is not popular in Northern Ireland. There are many regulatory differences between Britain and Northern Ireland as it stands.”

Many diplomats were especially scathing about the former Brexit ministers that did not stay the course to implement the proposals for which they had campaigned. “We had David Davis at a meeting of diplomats the other day and he just laughed when he recalled he had helped persuade May to call the [2017] election. I guess he is laughing all the way to the bank,” said one.

Searching for stability amid the atmosphere of crisis, many diplomats would prefer May to cling on, despite the humiliating climbdown over the “meaningful vote” .

Admiration at May’s fortitude is widespread though. “She is formidable, unbelievable, all these unjustified attacks I do not know where she gets her strength from but that is the nature of British politics. It does not forgive,” said one.

Although privately many diplomats would love Brexit to be reversed, and believe it could mark a turning point against populism, there was also a wariness about the disruption of a second referendum. One ambassador suggested the French realised that European parliamentary election campaign of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, would be damaged by the sight of furious British leave campaigners claiming they had been cheated of their democratic rights by an arrogant elite who refused to listen: “What is happening in France is potentially momentous. The social fabric is under threat, and this anger could spread across the continent,” the ambassador said, referring to the gilets jaunes protests.

Another said: “I have no idea where they think they are going with this people’s vote. Will it produce anything better or perhaps the same result, but the other way round? Does that stop the argument?

“I fear this country will be discussing Brexit for another 15 years.”



