Today’s great Tory schism has been brewing for decades. The virus began with a handful of oddballs long ago who made “Europe” the catch-all cause of all ills, and Brexit the miracle cure. Now the party is infected, spreading the disease across half the country, mainly to their voters. Doughty Tory anti-Brexiters battle to rescue the body politic, but so far they have lost at every stage.

The volcano is ready to blow. Images of mayhem pepper political commentaries. She may be hapless, hopeless and friendless, but Theresa May is not to blame. There is no leader who could bridge the yawning ravine between Jacob Rees-Mogg and Anna Soubry. Time was when the Tory party always knew one big thing: how to put power above everything else. No longer. Brexit passions run deeper than mere party loyalty, and rightly so with the country’s future in the balance.

For Tories Brexit will never end … If it was reversed in a second referendum, think of the ferocious political fallout

Try this thought experiment: devise a deal that satisfies the crash-out-now Brextremists, the Binos (“Brexit in name only”) and the stay-ins. No wonder every government speech has been fantasy written on gossamer, dreaming of a Brexit made of thin air – frictionless borders but no free movement, perfect free trade but no legal oversight of rules by the European court of justice, a cake-and-eat-it cherry-picking picnic. They block their ears to Michel Barnier and Angela Merkel, repeating wearily yet again last week that there is no pick-and-mix, only hard choices.

No wonder May has just called off her promised speech on what she really wants: her Brexit vision, her plan. But she hasn’t got one. Instead there is a two-year transition to nowhere, implementation of nothing. Nothing she could say would bridge the divide, so it’s best to say nothing. As the Brexiteers suspect behind the scenes, as reality blows away fantasy, she knows the hard choices. She’s not stupid. Mandarins are “forcing May into Brexit betrayal”, blasts the Sunday Telegraph front page, blaming the cabinet secretary and Oliver Robbins, the chief negotiator, for making her face the facts. Theresa Villiers accuses her of betrayal by “dilution”.

Play Video 1:01 Tories must unite in 'spirit of mutual respect', says David Lidington – video

Grant Shapps, the former party chairman, calls for May to name the day of her departure. Some want her to go now – letters from MPs calling for a no-confidence vote are mounting up. Others say let her finish Brexit, before they finish her. But for Tories, Brexit will never end. No deal will mollify both camps – so there may be no deal for a “meaningful” vote in October. The Tory party will rankle and wrangle over this for ever.

While every contender was polishing their sabre, the upstart Gavin Williamson tripped over his shoelaces before he was out of the gate. GCHQ is reportedly “furious” at the new defence secretary leaking secret information on Russian cyber threats, as a smokescreen to cover an embarrassing story about his past. His “friends” – if he has any – say all this is “black ops” by other contestants.

Quick guide What is the EU withdrawal bill? Show Hide What is the EU withdrawal bill? The EU Withdrawal Bill – once known as the Great Repeal Bill – is going through the House of Commons to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act and transpose all existing EU legislation into domestic UK law, which will avoid a 'cliff-edge' change on the day after we leave the EU. Parts of the bill have been highly controversial, and MPs have tabled hundreds of amendments to try and change its wording, including a significant number of Conservative rebels. Some of the key controversies include its use of so-called Henry VIII powers, which will give government ministers the power to tweak the wording of laws to make sure they make sense in UK legislation - but those changes could take place without having to go through parliament. MPs have called this a "power grab" by the government. The government estimates around 800 to 1,000 measures called statutory instruments will be required to make sure the bill is applied correctly. Other concerns include the government's decision not to include the EU charter of fundamental rights in the law being transposed. Other amendments are attempts to affect the Brexit process, including legislating for a transitional period and giving MPs a binding meaningful vote on the deal secured by Theresa May, before the deal is finalised.

The leadership betting is startling: Rees-Mogg has led for months, Boris Johnson second. Rees-Mogg says no to any transition as rule-taking “vassals” of the monster Brussels; wanting an immediate crash-out makes him a kind of destructo-anarchist. Anyone who contemplates either man as leader suggests a party that has taken leave of its senses, devoid of a will to win. Johnson promises a speech soon laying out his “liberal” case for Brexit with a “buccaneering” spirit, unlikely to ease his party’s woes. His demand for £5bn for the NHS was as transparently vote-grubbing as Michael Gove’s comical new green and puppy-saving enthusiasm. Amber Rudd is moving up the table a little – but it would take the transformation of her party and its toxic press for anyone normal like her to stand a chance.

The warring Brexit war cabinet committee meets on Monday, unlikely to “come together in a spirit of mutual respect”, as Cabinet Office minister David Lidington pleaded on Sunday. On Tuesday, the Lords set to on the EU withdrawal bill, likely to force the government into serial climbdowns over Henry VIII powers and devolution. Some peers will press hard for that second referendum, encouraged by the Guardian/ICM poll showing a 16-point lead in favour. Oddly, a murmur among some Tories ponders whether that might be an escape from their own dilemma: let the people decide. But what would the question be? Accept the deal or crash out? Accept the deal or stay in? If remain won and Brexit was reversed by a small majority, think of the ferocious, everlasting political fallout. Referendums make everything worse.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘Anyone who contemplates either Jacob Rees-Mogg [pictured] or Boris Johnson as leader suggests a party taken leave of its senses.’ Photograph: Phil Noble/Reuters

“Bring it on,” Jeremy Corbyn told Andrew Marr on Sunday, not about a referendum but relishing the prospect of May’s toppling causing an election, as any opposition leader would. Labour’s divide looks no more than business-as-usual, compared with the Tory split. Anti-Brexiters may have taken heart at his new tone of warmth for staying close to the EU. In a confident outing on the Marr show, for the first time he sounded completely positive about staying as close as possible to the single market and customs union. Strongly influenced by Labour’s pro-EU young voters and by the big unions’ deep anxiety about Brexit, those close to Corbyn say he has travelled a long way, reassured that nothing in his manifesto is prevented by EU state aid rules.

Theresa May is losing control. She must step up or help find a successor | Anne McElvoy Read more

Keir Starmer, visiting Belfast on Monday, regards the Irish border as the linchpin. Writing in the Belfast Telegraph, he points out that the prime minister’s phase one of the EU agreement promised unreservedly no hard border, “including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls”. There is no way that can be done, he says, except by cleaving to single market and customs union terms in the final deal. Ireland holds the key – and that’s why the anarcho-Brexiteers duck mentioning this anvil on which the final deal will be struck or founder.

Meanwhile, for our entertainment, Tory whips have summoned ministers to warn them they face an annual appraisal, judged on the following tests: their new ideas, engagement with colleagues, teamwork and passion. Presumably the whips knew their leader would fail every one, allowing the great axe to fall.

• Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist