Queenslanders have never made it easy on political parties. Emotional, parochial and proud, Queensland voters know what they like and punish what they don’t.



Labor, which was formed in Queensland, and the Liberal National party, which formally married the traditional Coalition partners to better suit the regional urban divide the state throws up, are usually prepared for that anger, using voter passion as a weapon against their opponents.

But this time, both major parties are facing an electorate that has moved from anger to disappointment and beyond. Since sweeping the Newman government out of power in a historic swing that left neither parties with a ruling majority, voters have remained cautious, with polls remaining split at 50-50. Now both are attempting to fight their way to 47 seats and outright victory, a feat, in the current political climate, neither party seems confident of achieving.

The minority Palaszczuk government called a snap election for 25 November in the hopes of getting as close as it could. Having won 44 seats at the 2015 election, before losing two members to the crossbench, Labor sits on parity with the LNP opposition in the state’s unicameral parliament.



Voters are fatigued and disillusioned and the grand old parties have offered little in the way of inspiration, making this election campaign an uphill battle for both.

“I just can’t see us getting to 47, I just can’t see it,” one longtime LNP operative says.

“I have done the numbers a million ways. Because it is not just about us winning five seats, it is about us not losing any seats. And I can’t see that net gain of five. I can’t. And I don’t think Labor is in any better shape. I think they might win a couple more than us, but I do not see a scenario where One Nation aren’t the kingmakers.

“I hope I am proved wrong. But I just don’t see it.”

In April 2016 Labor moved to beat the LNP at its own game, hijacking the opposition bill to add four more electorates, to introduce compulsory preferential voting.



The move was aimed at nobbling the Greens, which had just seen their first counsellor elected to Brisbane city council, in a ward with similar boundaries to the electorate held by the deputy premier, Jackie Trad.

It worked, but failed to take into account the looming resurgence of One Nation. Now, as premier Annastacia Palaszczuk seeks to convince a sceptical Queensland public its better days are just ahead, Labor has been robbed of its strongest weapon against One Nation – the “just vote one Labor” ploy that helped Peter Beattie defeat it 20 years ago.

“Was it a mistake? Well hindsight is great, isn’t it,” muses a Labor campaigner.

“Now we are in the trenches. We are not just fighting Tim Nicholls and the LNP, but those voters who would turn from us, or from the LNP and give their vote to Pauline Hanson. This is day-to-day trench warfare campaigning. The problem is, federally, we have seen Hanson normalised somewhat.

“It makes it hard to see Brisbane and those outer suburbs reacting the same way to the One Nation threat that they did two decades ago. Queensland could end up being what inoculates the nation against One Nation and Hanson. And that is not something I want to see for the state, because it will be terrible, but at the same time, if there is a positive, it’s that by the time we get to the federal election, maybe people will have seen through it by then, if they have control in Queensland.

“It has been hard this time round getting voters to take her threat seriously, especially in the southern states. A One Nation coalition government could do it.”

The LNP also speaks of normalising One Nation, which it lays at the federal government’s feet.

“It’s been mostly the Liberals,” one Nationals-aligned LNP member said.

“They have been running around telling everyone to take her seriously, that she has changed, that she’s a shrewd operator. That it’s different this time. They gave her government funding announcements to make, for Christ’s sake.

“And now we are fighting her off, and facing returning to government at her bidding, because can you see how we get to 47? Can you see how Labor does it? They have their own battles with One Nation, as well as the Greens. Christ.”

The lack of an upper house, thanks to a 1920s Labor government sick of dealing with a hostile oversight chamber, has made it notoriously difficult for minor parties to get a foothold in Queensland’s parliament.

But now the Greens, encouraged by Jonathan Sri’s win earlier last year, have South Brisbane in their sights.

They also have eyes on Maiwar, a redefined seat in the inner-city west, helmed by LNP MP Scott Emerson. For the Greens to win, both sitting members, which include Trad, would have to come third.

There’s a chance in both seats, insiders from both the majors concede, but not a likely one. Still, they have been wrong before.

Katter’s Australian party, which counts federal MP Bob Katter’s son Robbie as its leader, is expected to hold on to its two seats. But One Nation remains the great unknown. Primary polling has the party at about 16%.

Individual seats, particularly in north and central Queensland, as well as the outer urban ring around Brisbane, between its coasts, are polling well for the renegade party and that’s before Hanson joins the campaign.

“Diabolically well in some cases,” a Labor campaigner says. “We are looking at 38% or more in some cases,” according to an LNP source. It’s the one thing both majors can agree on.

No one wants to predict the outcome of the election at this stage, but sources from both parties say they are preparing for anywhere from five to 12 seats falling to One Nation.

“Which is bad for Queensland, no matter how you look at it,” one stalwart LNP campaigner says. “That is an unruly government. But that looks like where we are heading. Is anyone even listening to anything anymore? Does anyone seem excited by what us or Labor are doing? That is the danger zone we are facing. This isn’t a Palmer-style protest vote. Voters are angry and we are not doing anything, even at a federal level, to turn that around.”

Labor campaigners agree, although they have more hope that anger at the federal sphere will turn voters their way.

“But still, you have to face that we are in a time of shifting sands and I don’t know if anyone has purchase here,” one says.

“One Nation may not win Queensland, but it could control it. Then we just have to hope it gets out of people’s systems and pick up whatever pieces are left and work out how to reach those people we’ve all lost.”