Study: Nevada should expect 125,000 migrants from sea level rise

Benjamin Spillman | Reno Gazette-Journal

Show Caption Hide Caption Rising sea levels will push millions inland Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to drive 4.2 to 13.1 million Americans out of coastal areas. New research looks at where they might go. It forecasts more than 125,000 will resettle in Nevada by 2100.

More than 125,000 people pushed out of coastal counties by sea level rise are likely to end up in Nevada, according to new research.

The research is an attempt to show how rising sea levels due to climate change will have far-reaching effects beyond inundated coastal areas.

“If people have to migrate they have to migrate somewhere,” said Mathew Hauer, head of the Applied Demography program at University of Georgia. “That is what this paper was estimating, where people are going to migrate to.”

The paper covered the entire United States and estimated where displaced people will have migrated by 2100. It published April 17 in the journal Nature Climate Change.

To arrive at the figures Hauer presumed a .9 to 1.8 meter sea level increase by 2100 that threatens to inundate homes for 4.2 million to 13.1 million people in the U.S.

“That provides the total number of people could be moving,” he said. “Those are the people whose houses are going to be underwater every day.”

The paper only looked at projections for displaced Americans, worldwide the number of people in risk areas is much greater.

The numbers don't include people who might be affected by other climate change problems, such as changing drought and precipitation distribution or extreme heat.

It also doesn't account for people moving for reasons unrelated to sea level or climate changes.

Hauer combined sea level displacement projections data with migration pattern data from the Internal Revenue Service. The IRS publishes migration data based on the county of residence people use in tax filings.

By looking at coastal counties where homes would be inundated Hauer could project where they are likely to go.

“I forecasted that time series forward to create a projected migration system,” Hauer said. “I made the plumbing, if you will, that is going to carry the migrants.”

According to the data the top five destinations for sea level induced migrants are likely to be Austin, Orlando, Atlanta, Houston and Dallas.

Those areas combined would add an expected 2.4 million people displaced from U.S. coastal areas.

The Las Vegas-Henderson area is number 10 on the list of migrant destinations with an estimated 117,636 arrivals by 2100. Reno is number 94 with an estimated 8,785.

Hauer’s study also produced a set of data with lower migration estimates based on the assumption coastal communities will make major adaptations to preserve their populations.

The lower projections show about 1.8 million people migrating to the top five destinations. They show 85,777 migrants arriving in Las Vegas-Henderson and 6,569 arriving in Reno.

The study doesn’t account for the fact that the risk level isn’t consistent across coastal areas. Nor will consistency be likely in adaptive measures.

“Places like Miami, they’re going to handle sea level rise differently than New Orleans or Houston,” he said.

What makes the migration study unique is that it looks beyond areas where people will be pushed out and analyzes where they are likely to resettle.

“Thinking about that and incorporating it into long range strategic planning would be pretty useful,” Hauer said.