Can Cincinnati Reds prospect Hunter Greene be this smart and this good? Yes

BILLINGS, Mont. — As Hunter Greene emerges from the small clubhouse in the left-field corner of Dehler Park, roughly a dozen people are waiting outside, pens and baseballs ready.

A crowd of 2,206 watched the rookie-level Mustangs beat the Helena Brewers 10-2 in the 35th of 38 games played in Billings in one of the lowest rungs of minor league baseball.

The average age in the Pioneer League is 20.7, and its most famous player is exactly a month past his 18th birthday.

Few players in the Pioneer League have any kind of cachet, they are more likely to be household residents than household names. But Hunter Greene is both, living in Mike Mayott’s house in Billings less than five months after having graced the cover of Sports Illustrated, touted as “the star baseball needs.”

Here in Montana’s largest city (population of 104,170 according to the most recent U.S. census), that means there’s a 30-something metal fabricator in Minnesota Twins garb there waiting for an autograph from a man he repeatedly calls “Hunter Pence,” the name of the San Francisco Giants outfielder.

“It’s for my little brother,” the man tells Greene (nee Pence).

“What’s his name?” Greene asks.

“Don’t worry about it, you can just sign your name,” the man says.

“No, I can’t,” Greene says politely. “What’s his name?”

The man tells him and Greene (not Pence) signs and then smiles for a picture with the man (and not his brother).

More: Cincinnati Reds' Hunter Greene's future is on the mound, not shortstop, he says

The man is of this place. Born here, raised here and living here. Greene is not. He’s been here since July, played in seven games as a designated hitter and three as a pitcher. Of those, three of the games he hit in were here at the 3,000-seat Dehler Park and two of his starts as a pitcher. He will leave Billings less than a week later.

On this night, Sept. 6, Greene saw his most significant action, throwing just 35 pitches in three innings, allowing one unearned run on a hit and a walk. He struck out four. The Dehler Park radar gun consistently shows his fastball anywhere from 96 to “00” — there are only two digits on the scoreboard for the radar gun, despite three digits on Greene’s fastest of fastballs.

As if recording “00” wasn’t impressive enough, Mustangs pitching coach Seth Etherton notes that officially the stadium’s radar gun is slow. The top pitch Greene threw against the Brewers was 101.7 mph.

Radar guns have shown Greene throwing 102 mph on the regular in his amateur career. That’s why he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated, why he was considered the top overall prospect in this June’s draft, why he spent draft day at MLB Network studios in New Jersey, why the Reds took him with the No. 2 overall pick and why, ultimately, the team gave him a signing bonus of $7.23 million.

After signing that contract, he’s also signed a deal with Adidas and is now signing autographs — personalized, and only personalized, for those here in Montana, watching perhaps the biggest baseball star they’ve ever seen play here.

“Personalization is really important,” Greene notes the next day when asked about the autographs. “I know how to overlap (his signature) so you overlap over the personalization so they can't erase it a certain way.”

Greene is a commodity, even here in Billings. An eBay listing for a Greene autographed baseball from 2016 notes it’s rare since it’s not personalized, so it has an asking price of $150. He's agreed to terms on deals for his autographs with both Topps trading cards and Lojo Sports.

Greene’s also no fool. He’s a child of Los Angeles, the son of Russell Greene, a private investigator with a client list that includes Justin Bieber, Kanye West and the Kardashians.

If anyone’s equipped to handle sudden fame before his 18th birthday, it’s Greene. He said for the two months before the draft, there probably wasn’t a day he didn’t do an interview. Even in the sparse Pioneer League, his 10 games have been events in Montana, Utah and Idaho.

'It's a pride thing'

Bullpens in the Pioneer League are usually along the stands. Fans can sit up close to the bullpen in left field and watch Greene warm up.

At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Greene is the model of what a pitcher should look like. His mechanics, honed by famed Southern California pitching guru Alan Jaeger since he was in second grade, are perfect.

It’s effortless. It’s smooth. There are none of the grunts and groans that can be heard by some big-league pitchers as they light up radar guns in a game that is increasingly ruled by velocity.

A big-league scout is sent video of Greene warming up and responds by text, “That is what they are supposed to look like!”

It’s why it’s a wonder not that the Reds took him with the second overall pick, but how he dropped that far. It’s a question that has been asked legitimately since June.

Greene didn’t expect to last that long. He’d visited the Minnesota Twins, the team with the top pick, the weekend before the draft. He thought he would be the first name commissioner Rob Manfred announced on the draft, not his friend and fellow Southern Californian, Royce Lewis.

“Royce is my boy,” Greene notes. “He's a great player, they got a great player that brings all tools to the table. It was great for him. I'm happy I was drafted by the Reds.”

Greene said his dad knew a half-hour before his name was called. He didn’t know until Manfred said it, both in front of him and on live TV.

Why was Lewis’ named called before Greene’s?

First off, Lewis is a great-looking prospect, too. A shortstop, he homered in his first pro at-bat.

There’s also history — no high school right-hander has ever been taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the MLB draft. Only three left-handed prep hurlers have ever gone with the top pick, and only one of those (David Clyde, 1973) has pitched in a big-league game. Brien Taylor (1991) never pitched above Double-A and Brady Aiken (2014) didn’t sign with the Astros because of injury and was drafted by Cleveland the next year. Aiken was 5-13 with a 4.77 ERA in 27 starts in low-Class A this past season.

Taking any high-school pitcher in the first round is a gamble, but even more so with the first pick.

And then there’s money. There’s always money.

Because of the risk involved with drafting baseball players, there’s no such thing as a sure thing — not even someone who throws 102.

As the consensus top pick, Greene was more than likely to command the most money when it came time to sign. Lewis, seen as a top 10 pick and likely top-five pick, wasn’t going to demand top dollar, which in this case was suggested by Major League Baseball as $7.77 million as a signing bonus. (Each lower spot — or slot — in the draft has a lower suggested dollar amount. Leading into this draft, no player taken in the top three of the draft under its current rules has ever signed for slot, much less above it. Lewis signed for $6.725 million, more than $1 million less than the suggested No. 1 slot bonus.)

This year, the No. 2 slot was set at $7.2 million. With literally seconds remaining before the 5 p.m. Eastern signing deadline on July 7, Greene agreed to a deal worth $7.23 million, the largest signing bonus given to anyone in this year’s draft or since the current rules have been in place.

Sitting at a picnic table outside the Mustangs’ clubhouse, Greene was asked what would have happened if those final seconds ticked away without a deal being reached?

“I wasn't stressed about it,” he said. “If I was going to UCLA, I was going to UCLA. I figured, if I'm going to UCLA, I'm doing what Gerrit Cole did and go there for three years and so he signed for $8 million. I can get a three-year education that's the best in the world. I was fine with that. I didn't have a problem with that.”

Cole was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Yankees but didn’t sign. Three years later he was eligible to be drafted again and went No. 1 overall to the Pirates. Now he’s the Pirates’ ace and a 2015 All-Star.

Cole made money with his patience, something that’s not guaranteed when you’re talking about pitching, where an arm injury is always lurking.

Greene may have been OK with that gamble, but in the end, what — other than obviously $30,000 — is the difference in $7.23 million and $7.2 million?

“There really isn't. It's just a pride thing,” Greene said. “It's a pride thing. It's pride with Cincinnati, it's pride with my family and all the hard work I've put in. That's all that is.”

In the economics of baseball, this is the last time Greene will have any leverage over the Reds or any other team until he’s accrued six years of service time in the big leagues.

It can take years for a player to navigate his way through the minors to the big leagues — and even then, six years of big-league time is hardly guaranteed. The $130,000 negotiated in the final seconds could be the last significant money he makes in baseball.

For now, Greene gets the same monthly stipend that every minor-leaguer gets. As soon as that bonus is signed, he’s the same as anyone else in the system.

“It's done,” he notes of the contract negotiations. “You get to move on and provide for the team and do the best you can for the Cincinnati Reds. That's the goal at the end of the day.”

'That and a lot more'

Greene celebrated his 18th birthday with his teammates at a Buffalo Wild Wings in Billings — it’s about the only place open in Billings after games. Greene's found a good sushi spot (Wild Ginger on Montana Ave.) in Billings -- "It's good. It's really good. I'm like where do you get the fish from?" But it's closed by the time the Mustangs finish for the night.

So on Aug. 6, like they did so many other nights, Greene and some of his teammates left Dehler Park in Mayott’s 2015 Dodge Ram headed to Buffalo Wild Wings.

Like his teammates who don’t have $7 million in the bank, Greene lived with a host family in Billings. Mayott, a retired federal law enforcement officer, has been hosting players for 15 years, he says. Mayott hosted Reds outfielder Jesse Winker when he was in Billings, as well as many others. This year he has Greene and fellow first-round Jeter Downs. He lets them drive his truck as he gets around town on his motorcycle. When the Mustangs return from road trips, usually around 2:30 in the morning, Mayott will be there to pick them up.

On his birthday, the biggest difference between Greene and his teammates was that he hadn’t played yet — he was still two days from his pro debut and three weeks from his first start as a pitcher.

Greene stopped pitching for his high school team in April, preserving his lottery ticket of a right arm for the draft. Because of that and waiting until the very last seconds to sign his deal with the Reds, Greene couldn’t just jump right back into pitching. The layoff required getting his arm back in shape.

So he reported to Billings and stayed with his teammates, sitting on the bench, building up his arm strength and also spending his time hitting.

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Greene not only throws 102 mph, but he was also considered a first-round talent as a shortstop with power. A year earlier, he hit baseballs out of San Diego’s Petco Park with a wood bat, drawing the attention of Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr., who gifted him one of his bats after the competition. Griffey said last week that he loved Greene’s swing, and if there’s one thing Griffey knows, it’s swings.

But the Reds drafted Greene as a pitcher, not a hitter. Even though he tripled in his first-ever game and appeared in seven games as a designated hitter, Aug. 26 was his real debut.

Greene pitched one inning against Helena that night, striking out one and giving up a hit.

Five days later, though, it was different. In Missoula, Montana, Greene gave up six runs on six hits, retiring just one batter before Billings manager Ray Martinez went to the mound to get him.

Martinez said only one of the six hits could be categorized as a hard-hit ball. He also thought the umpire missed a call on a play at first base.

“I don't think it's ever happened to him where he had to be taken out of a game,” Martinez said. “I didn't take him out because of his performance, but obviously because of the pitch count.”

What happened when Martinez went to the mound impressed him as much as any fastball or slider.

“I said, ‘let's go’ and tapped them all on the gloves, just to tell them to finish the inning strong and leave on a good note and not just look all mad and irritated,” Greene recalled. “You have to understand it's baseball and you can't just strike everyone out and make all the outs you want, it's part of the game and showing people I'm mature enough to handle all of that and still pick up my teammates.”

His third and final outing was his best and longest. He threw 35 pitches over three innings with four strikeouts, a hit and an unearned run. No fastball was slower than 98 and he mixed in his changeup, curveball and slider. He struck out Brewers third baseman Chad McClanahan on a back-foot slider that sent his opponent to one knee as he swung through strike three.

“The velocity is great. Whatever. But his ability to do what he does with that? And his ability to mentally move on and not get down, the emotions of it,” said Etherton, a former big-league pitcher who is in his second season with the Mustangs. “He just -- he's very, very polished mentally. That's why it's intriguing, all the talk about him before the draft and everything. It's that and a lot more. Nobody really knew, even us. It's like wow, this is something special.”