Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Angus King seems to have recovered his footing here, and Cynthia Dill has failed to gain traction. None of this is good news for the GOP's hopes of taking over this Senate seat. King looks pretty solid at the moment.

9/24/2012 -- Recent polling has shown a tightening race, as the NRSC continues to play here. Whether this is a blip or a trend remains to be seen, but if Democrats start coming home for Dill, King could find himself in real trouble.

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"As goes Maine, so goes the nation." This was the rule of thumb for political prognosticators for decades. Maine is a quirky state, and for years it held its elections in September. This gave an early view of the mood of the country in the time before reliable public opinion polling. But make no mistake, for years the only question concerned the degree of victory the Republican candidate would earn in Maine. Until 1954, when Ed Muskie won, Republicans had lost only five gubernatorial elections -- at a time when those elections were held every two years. Since the Civil War, Maine Democrats have sent only a handful of senators to Washington; most have been Republicans, although they have been cut from a decidedly moderate, or even liberal, cloth.



Maine experienced a bit of a tsunami in 2010, electing a fiscally and socially conservative governor in Paul LePage, and giving him a Republican legislature to work with. That led to some speculation that Olympia Snowe would be vulnerable to a challenge in the Republican primary. She instead retired, throwing Maine politics into turmoil.



Both parties had crowded primaries. Republicans nominated Secretary of State Charlie Summers, while Democrats opted for state Sen. Cynthia Dill. But the 800-pound gorilla in the race is political Independent (and former governor) Angus King, who served in the late 1990s and early 2000s. King is in many ways a perfect fit for quirky Maine, and has led handily in the polls. To date, King has demurred on which party he will caucus with. Many suspect that he will throw his lot with the Democrats, but King did support George W. Bush in 2000 and may be friendly to a more economically oriented Republican like Romney. If Republicans can hold the Senate without his vote, King may well decide that trudging along in the minority isn't worth it.