Leo Varadkar, youthful leader, elegant dresser, liberal lion, responsible economic steward, banisher of Brexit clouds – what’s not to love? That, at least, is how many outsiders view Ireland’s taoiseach.

“Leo, Leo, Leo! We love you!” trilled some Chinese tourists who recently encountered him on Dublin’s Grafton Street, as he canvassed with Fine Gael party colleagues for votes in the 8 February general election.

The tourists bantered with Varadkar, declared him more handsome in person than on TV, took selfies, shook his hand and gave bemused onlookers a cheerful exhortation: “Vote for him!”

Few in Ireland seem to share such passion. Opinion polls show Varadkar’s party slumping, raising expectations that the country’s youngest prime minister will soon be dumped from office.

Varadkar, 41, is feted abroad – he jogs with Justin Trudeau, dines with Mike Pence, trades hugs with EU leaders and gets swooning press reviews – and can boast of success at home.

The economy is humming – stellar growth, near full employment – and is protected, for now, from a no-deal Brexit. Varadkar can also claim some credit for a social revolution that has ushered in marriage equality and abortion rights.

Leo Varadkar and the Sinn Féin leader, Mary Lou McDonald, during a televised leaders’ debate in Galway. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

But instead of a coronation he is fighting for his political life. “The mood seems to be one favouring change,” said David Farrell, head of the school of politics and international relations at University College Dublin. “Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael are really up against it.”

Defeat would mark a vertiginous fall for a precocious politician who rewrote the political rulebook – Ireland’s first gay, mixed-race taoiseach – and embodied change. But now many voters view him as representing establishment stasis just when they want to shake things up.

Varadkar became taoiseach in 2017 but Fine Gael has been in office since 2011 and is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term, defying voter fatigue and political gravity. Instead of the economy or Brexit – strong issues for Fine Gael – the election has centred on a housing crisis and flaking public services.

“I’m not so sure about Fine Gael. They promised lots of things but they’re not fulfilled yet,” said Mary Murphy, 77, from County Wicklow, moments after Varadkar canvassed her. The government had neglected rural areas and moved too slowly on climate change, she said.

Varadkar moved on with his entourage down Grafton Street and dropped €10 into the guitar case of Vincent Fottrell, 79, a busker. “Generous,” said Fottrell. “But I still plan to vote for Sinn Féin.” He underlined the point by singing Back Home in Derry, a rebel song written by the IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands.

Leo Varadkar gave him €10 but Vincent Fottrell, a Dublin busker, still plans to vote for Sinn Féin in Ireland’s general election. Photograph: Rory Carroll/The Guardian

Fine Gael supporters mobbed Varadkar, who at 1.93m (6ft 4in) towered over most of them. But some, like Graham Nolan, 58, an engineer, worried he was on the way out. “He’s doing a very good job, he’s direct speaking and says what he’s going to do. But I don’t think he’s had enough time to get us out of the situation we were in.”

Fine Gael and its main rival, Fianna Fáil, both centrist parties, have alternated in power for almost a century. Voters pummelled Fianna Fáil in 2011 over Ireland’s economic crash, allowing Enda Kenny to lead a Fine Gael-led coalition to power. The economy recovered and Kenny won another term in 2016 before stepping aside a year later for Varadkar.

A middle-class, Dublin-born son of an Indian immigrant, Varadkar quit a medical career for politics. Ambitious and wonkish, he was simultaneously shy and outspoken, earning the nickname Gob Almighty. He preferred policy papers and Dáil debates to backslapping constituents.

The new taoiseach enjoyed a honeymoon thanks to economic recovery and deft Brexit diplomacy. But voters have moved on, said Frances Fitzgerald, a Fine Gael MEP. “They’ve forgotten the link between Brexit and jobs in Ireland and the threat that it could pose.”

Q&A What are the main political parties in Ireland? Show Fine Gael

Its name can be translated as family or tribe of the Irish. A centre-right party with a socially progressive tilt. In office since 2011, first led by Enda Kenny, then Leo Varadkar, with support from smaller coalition partners. Traces roots to Michael Collins and the winning side in Ireland’s 1922-23 civil war. The party traditionally advocates market economics and fiscal discipline. Appeals to the urban middle class and well-off farmers. Fianna Fáil Its name means Soldiers of Destiny. A centrist, ideologically malleable party that dominated Irish politics until it steered the Celtic Tiger economy over a cliff, prompting decade-long banishment to opposition benches. Under Micheál Martin, a nimble political veteran, it has clawed back support and may overtake Fine Gael as the biggest party and lead the next coalition government. Founded by Éamon de Valera, who backed the civil war’s losing side but turned Fianna Fáil into an election-winning machine. Sinn Féin Its name means We Ourselves, signifying Irish sovereignty. A leftwing republican party that competes in Northern Ireland as well as the Republic. Traces roots to 1905. Emerged in current form during the Troubles, when it was linked to the IRA. Peace in Northern Ireland helped Sinn Féin rebrand as a working-class advocate opposed to austerity. Under Mary Lou McDonald, a Dubliner without paramilitary baggage, Sinn Féin has become the third-biggest party, and its vote share surged in the 2020 election. Others Partnership with Fine Gael during post-Celtic Tiger austerity tainted the centre-left Labour party. The political arm of the trade union movement, it is led by Brendan Howlin, a former teacher and government minister. The Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit are part of an alphabet soup of smaller, more leftwing parties. The Greens, wiped out in 2011 after a ruinous coalition with Fianna Fáil, have campaigned on the back of climate crisis anxiety and youth-led protests. Independent TDs have prospered in recent elections, turning some into outsized players in ruling coalitions. Rory Carroll

Instead voters are chafing at homelessness, soaring rents and dysfunctional healthcare. Rural critics accuse Varadkar of avocado-eating urban elitism. Leftwing critics brand him “tory boy”.

“Fine Gael has accrued a governing penalty,” said Theresa Reidy, a politics professor at University College Cork. “Improvements in public services have not kept pace with expectations.”

Voters seem ready to forgive Fianna Fáil, which hovers at around 27% support, while Fine Gael has dropped to about 22%. Sinn Féin has surged to around 20%, with the Greens, small leftwing parties and independent candidates comprising the rest.

Varadkar has tried to recapture the initiative with humility – admitting mistakes, vowing to do better – and with warnings about reckless, spendthrift opponents and enduring peril from Britain’s departure from the EU.

The strategy may work. But distractions have not helped. Varadkar stumbled when asked about his youthful drug use. A party colleague created a furore by calling him “autistic”.

After the election comes a second contest: forming a multi-party ruling coalition.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out entering government with Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil has also ruled out governing with Fine Gael, leaving it unclear if either of the two big parties would be able to muster 80 seats for a Dáil majority.

“There’s going to be a fragmented, uncertain landscape after the election,” said Reidy. “There could be another election quite soon.”

If Fine Gael does very badly it may replace Varadkar as party leader. British Brexiters tormented by the backstop would doubtless toast his fall. But their other Brexit antagonist, Simon Coveney, would be favourite to take his place.