Earlier this summer a trade strategy came up in the group chat of one of my dynasty leagues: buy talent – sell situation. It’s just as simple as it sounds: you trade for players who have fantasy value because they are talented players and you trade away players who have value because of the situation they are in (Gus Edwards in 2018 is a prime example of this).

From my perspective it seems like the way to get the most value with this strategy would be to trade for wide receivers and tight ends and trade away running backs. Because running back is such a replaceable position in football, you will often get relatively unknown players who suddenly find themselves in a situation to be productive. Last year Gus Edwards was winning fantasy leagues for people who managed to pick him up, this year he’s probably gonna be the 4th or 5th rushing option for the Ravens. That being said, here are my buy and sell candidates for 2019:

Buy:

Dede Westbrook – WR – Jacksonville Jaguars

Westbrook is a player I’m targeting in all drafts – both dynasty and redraft. He’s by far the most talented receiver on the Jaguars roster and he’s already been productive in his first two seasons in offences that have been far from impressive. Whether or not you are a believer in Nick Foles (I tend to be on the pessimistic side) it’s hard to believe he will not be an upgrade on Blake Bortles or Cody Kessler, and if he turns out not be an upgrade the Jaguars likely to move on from him very quickly. In any case, Westbrooks situation can pretty much only improve from what it’s been in his first two years, and he has already shown his talent and productivity.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside – WR – Philadelphia Eagles

Arcega-Whiteside is not someone you’re very likely to trade for this offseason, because whoever drafted him most likely did so with a high draft pick. That being said, he is someone I think will get off to a pretty slow start because of all the weapons they have in Philadelphia: Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert will all be ahead of him by the start of preseason. Fantasy owners will expect production from their early draft picks, so there’s a good chance that whoever owns him in your league will be more likely to sell him at some point during the 2019 season than he would be before the start of the season.

Matt Breida – RB – San Francisco 49ers

I will admit to trading Breida away in one of my dynasty leagues this offseason (for a 2020 2nd round pick), but I still think he is someone you should be trying to trade for. The RB situation in San Francisco is very hard to figure out for now with Breida, Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon all being very similar. Last year Breida played very well when healthy, so he has proven that he can be a big fantasy asset. Until he proves otherwise, injuries will continue to be a concern and the backfield situation is less than ideal, however, he could become a free agent after the 2019 season and he’s still only 24 – so he could become a target for RB needy teams in next years free agency.

Teddy Bridgewater – QB – New Orleans Saints

Before his horrible knee injury, Bridgewater showed that he can be a decent starting quarterback in the NFL, albeit he was far from a fantasy star. He’s ended up in a near perfect situation for him to develop: being the backup for Drew Brees and coached by Sean Payton. He holds close to 0 value for 2019, but he could become the heir to Drew Brees once he decides to retire and in that case he would be a very intriguing fantasy option.

Sell:

Ronald Jones/Peyton Barber – RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If they were on any other team in the NFL neither of these running back would be likely to hold any kind of fantasy value. I think what we saw from Barber in 2018 is his very highest ceiling, so even if he remains the clear starter he’s not a very exciting fantasy option. Unless you’re really hurting at RB I would suggest selling Barber if at all possible.

Jones definitely has the higher upside of the two: we haven’t really seen him much in NFL just yet and he was very productive in college. Even if he didn’t play much as a rookie, what he saw was very discouraging: 23 carries for 44 yards and 1 TD, 7 receptions for 33 yards and a 48.8 PFF grade. He has gotten a little bit of offseason hype (who hasn’t?) so there might be potential buyers out there.

Austin Hooper – TE – Atlanta Falcons

Hooper had a very good season last year, finishing as the TE7 (depending on scoring), and I think he will be productive once again in 2019. For that reason, you might want to hold on to him for a while longer, but I don’t think he’s likely to be productive beyond this season. He’s simply not that talented and his production is only down to being the starter in a very productive offense. As soon as the Falcons invest more in the position, I see his value declining very quickly.

Lamar Miller – RB – Houston Texans

Miller is someone you’ll very likely be able to sell after the Texans released D’onta Foreman and I think he’s a decent RB2 for 2019, but I think it’s only a batter of time before the team finds a better option at the position. Karan Higdon is probably the most likely backup to Miller right now, and he could possibly take touches away from Miller later on in the season. In short, I don’t think Miller has much value beyond 2019 but I think there’s definitely a trade market for him right now.

Ezekiel Elliot – RB – Dallas Cowboys

Before anyone loses their shit: I’m not saying that Zeke isn’t talented or that you should sell him at a discounted price. I’m simply saying that the situation for Zeke cannot get any better than it has been thus far in his career. He’s been the focal point on the offence ever since he was drafted, he’s run behind one of the best offensive lines in football and he has had close to no competition for touches. Disregarding his current holdout (which is the reason you might not want to sell him right now), it’s not 100% certain that he will remain with the Cowboys beyond his rookie contract (they have many other young players that they have to pay) in which case his situation will only get worse. In case he signs a contract extension with the Cowboys he should remain on your roster, but as long as his future is uncertain I would say you should at least consider the offers you might receive.