The Narendra Modi government has done well in cementing ties with Vietnam further particularly in defence and oil exploration sectors during the just-ended India visit by Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, but the problem is that China will most certainly not take this growing India-Vietnam bonhomie lying low.

The Narendra Modi government has done well in cementing ties with Vietnam further particularly in defence and oil exploration sectors during the just-ended India visit by Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, but the problem is that China will most certainly not take this growing India-Vietnam bonhomie lying low.

The past, it is said, often predicts the future. China had reacted in an unprecedented way when President Pranab Mukherjee visited Vietnam last month and on the last day of his visit seven bilateral agreements were signed on 15 September.

The same day Chinese launched an ambitious incursion into Chumar in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ladakh region. The incursion continued and the Chinese troops’ numbers were beefed up even as Chinese President was on the Indian soil for his first-ever official visit to India (17-19 September). The incursion was eventually lifted only in September end.

On 28 October Prime Minister Narendra Modi had intensive talks with his Vietnamese counterpart in New Delhi and seven more bilateral agreements were signed during Dung’s visit. These were: (i) Memorandum of Understanding on the Establishment of Nalanda University; (ii) MoU on Conservation and Restoration of the World Heritage Site of My Son, Quang Nam Province, Vietnam; (iii) MoU on Establishing the Centre for English Language and Information Technology Training at the Telecommunications University; (iv) Cultural Exchange Programme 2015-17; (v) MoU on Exchange of Audio-Visual Programmes; (vi) HoA between OVL and PetroVietnam; and (vii) MoU between ONGC and PetroVietnam.

The two prime ministers also vowed to increase India-Vietnam bilateral trade from the existing $7 billion to $20 billion by 2020. The two sides have also agreed to have direct air connectivity for the first time. Jet Airways and Vietnam Airlines have already concluded an code sharing agreement and Jet Airways will commence direct flights to Ho Chi Minh City from 5 November onwards. Vietnam Airlines is to reciprocate shortly thereafter.

So far so good; but the real red rag for China in India-Vietnam strategic partnership is their increasingly close ties in the areas of defence and oil exploration, both of which are big no-no from the Chinese perspective. The two sides’ synchronized position on the South China Sea issue is another irritant for Beijing.

Modi and Dung agreed that freedom of navigation and overflight in the East China Sea/South China Sea should not be impeded and called the parties concerned to exercise restraint and avoid threat or use of force. A Joint Statement released after Dung’s visit said the two prime ministers “welcomed the collective commitment of the concerned parties to abide by and implement the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and to work towards the adoption of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea on the basis of consensus.”

This is absolutely contrary to China’s recent foreign policy push. China has routinely used military means to enforce its claims over the entire South China Sea region, a stand most powers, including Vietnam and India, vehemently oppose.

An equally big irritant for China is the growing defence cooperation between India and Vietnam which entails exchange of visits, annual Security Dialogue, service to service cooperation, ship visits, training and capacity building.

The two prime ministers called for early implementation of $100 million Line of Credit agreement for defence procurement extended by India to Vietnam, first time ever when India has made such an offer to Vietnam. The MoU for $100 million Line of Credit was signed during Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Vietnam.

Besides, despite China’s stern warnings to India, New Delhi and Hanoi are deepening their cooperation in the oil exploration sector.

ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) and PetroVietnam signed an MoU on 20 November, 2013 in the presence of then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam with an objective to enhance mutual cooperation in hydrocarbon sector. PetroVietnam offered new blocks to OVL for oil and gas exploration and production.

OVL is keen to expand its presence in Vietnam and is evaluating the blocks on offer. This Letter of Intent will further consolidate cooperation between India and Vietnam in energy sector and pave way for future collaboration between the two countries in this area.

Now coming back to the “past predicting the future” point made earlier, it is inevitable that China will retaliate. One will have to wait and see how soon the Chinese retaliation comes and how strong it is.

The Modi government’s deepening of ties with Vietnam is in the larger national interest of India. Actually India is doing nothing but responding to the “string of pearls” policy Beijing has been following for years vis a vis India under which China has made deep forays into India’s neighbourhood.

China has not spared a single neighbour of India as part of its “string of pearls” strategy. India watched silently, though anxiously, as the Chinese dragon enlarged its strategic footprints all around India.

Now India is paying back in the same coin. Vietnam is just one of the anti-China powers that India is deepening its bilateral ties. Japan is another such major power.

In case China comes up with a knee jerk reaction to the growing India-Vietnam proximity, it will be interesting to see how the Modi government deals with Taiwan. Watch this space!

The writer is Firstpost Consulting Editor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha