The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center released a preliminary analysis of the House Republican tax plan on Wednesday, showing that the proposed tax cuts would get smaller over 10 years for all but the top 1 percent of earners. Some major findings:

Most, but not all, taxpayers would get a moderate tax cut next year.

While most taxpayers would benefit at least modestly, just over 7 percent would receive a tax increase in 2018. The increases would primarily come from the repeal of several itemized deductions, such as the state and local tax deduction.

Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE INCREASE Lowest quintile 47% of taxpayers 51 2 –$60 Less than $25,000 Second quintile –$310 84% 6 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 89% 9 –$840 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile –$1,590 88% 12 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 87% 13 –$2,300 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile 84% 16 –$2,570 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile 94% 6 –$6,600 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –$37,440 80% 21 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent 71% 29 –$178,560 $3,439,000 and up Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE INCREASE Lowest quintile 47% 51 2 –$60 Less than $25,000 Second quintile 84% 6 –$310 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 89% 9 –$840 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile 88% 12 –$1,590 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 87% 13 –$2,300 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile 84% 16 –$2,570 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile 94% 6 –$6,600 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent 80% 21 –$37,440 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent 71% 29 –$178,560 $3,439,000 and up Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE Lowest quintile 47% 51% –$60 Less than $25,000 Second quintile 84% –$310 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 89% –$840 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile 88% –$1,590 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 87% –$2,300 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile –$2,570 84% $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile –$6,600 94% $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –$37,440 80% $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent –$178,560 71% $3,439,000 and up Note: Income quintiles are based on cash income and contain an equal number of people. Because of data limitations, the authors of the analysis excluded certain provisions from the data in the chart, including the repeal of the adoption credit and the moving expenses deduction, most likely overestimating the share of taxpayers that would receive a tax cut.

Effects on individual taxpayers would vary greatly depending on their geography, family status and composition of income. A separate analysis of the plan by The New York Times found that about one-third of middle-class families of three would pay more in 2018 than under current rules.

The top 1% would generally benefit more than everyone else.

Taxpayers in the bottom two income groups would see an increase in after-tax income of 0.4 to 0.9 percent, or $60 to $310 next year. The top 1 percent would benefit more, with an average increase in after-tax income of 2.5 percent — $37,440 for those making more than $732,800 and $178,560 for those making more than $3.4 million.

Change in tax rate (pct. pt.) Change in after-tax income Income Lowest quintile –0.4% +0.4% Less than $25,000 Second quintile –0.9 +0.9 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile –1.3 +1.5 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile –1.4 +1.7 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile –1.3 +1.6 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile –1.0 +1.3 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile –1.5 +2.0 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –1.7 +2.5 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent –1.7 +2.5 $3,439,000 and up Change in tax rate (pct. pt.) Change in after-tax income Income Lowest quintile –0.4% +0.4% Less than $25,000 Second quintile –0.9 +0.9 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile –1.3 +1.5 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile –1.4 +1.7 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile –1.3 +1.6 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile –1.0 +1.3 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile –1.5 +2.0 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –1.7 +2.5 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent –1.7 +2.5 $3,439,000 and up Change in tax rate (pct. pt.) Change in after-tax income Income Lowest quintile –0.4% +0.4% Less than $25,000 Second quintile –0.9 +0.9 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile –1.3 +1.5 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile –1.4 +1.7 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile –1.3 +1.6 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile –1.0 +1.3 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile –1.5 +2.0 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –1.7 +2.5 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent –1.7 +2.5 $3,439,000 and up Note: All estimates are averages.

But like other income groups, not all wealthy taxpayers would fare the same. Those who are so-called passive owners of businesses would benefit significantly from a new, lower tax rate on “pass-through” income. But wealthy taxpayers whose income is from labor could pay more because of the loss of deductions and a phase-out for millionaires of the lowest, 12 percent marginal income tax rate.

The bill could have little effect on those who receive the bulk of their income from capital gains and other investment income, because those rates would be unchanged.

And the tax cuts would shrink by 2027, except for the wealthiest.

By 2027, tax cuts would shrink for every group except the top 1 percent, and one quarter of taxpayers, many in the upper middle class, would pay more than they would without the new plan.

For example, taxpayers with incomes of about $149,400 to $216,800 would receive, on average, a $2,300 tax cut in 2018. But in 2027, that cut would shrink to just $560.

2018 2027 Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE INCREASE Lowest quintile 47% of taxpayers 51 2 –$60 Less than $25,000 Second quintile –$310 84% 6 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 89% 9 –$840 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile –$1,590 88% 12 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 87% 13 –$2,300 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile 84% 16 –$2,570 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile 94% 6 –$6,600 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –$37,440 80% 21 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent 71% 29 –$178,560 $3,439,000 and up Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE INCREASE Lowest quintile 47% 51 2 –$60 Less than $25,000 Second quintile 84% 6 –$310 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 89% 9 –$840 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile 88% 12 –$1,590 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 87% 13 –$2,300 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile 84% 16 –$2,570 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile 94% 6 –$6,600 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent 80% 21 –$37,440 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent 71% 29 –$178,560 $3,439,000 and up Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE Lowest quintile 47% 51% –$60 Less than $25,000 Second quintile 84% –$310 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 89% –$840 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile 88% –$1,590 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 87% –$2,300 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile –$2,570 84% $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile –$6,600 94% $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –$37,440 80% $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent –$178,560 71% $3,439,000 and up 2018 2027 Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE INCREASE Lowest quintile 42% 45 14 –$10 Less than $25,000 Second quintile 62% 25 –$40 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 67% 31 –$320 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile 71% 29 –$710 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 62% 37 –$560 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile 53% 47 –$340 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile 73% 27 –$5,220 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent 66% 34 –$52,780 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent 69% 31 –$278,370 $3,439,000 and up Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE Lowest quintile 42% 45% –$10 Less than $25,000 Second quintile 62% –$40 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 67% –$320 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile 71% –$710 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 62% –$560 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile –$340 53% $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile –$5,220 73% $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –$52,780 66% $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent –$278,370 69% $3,439,000 and up Average tax change Income TAX CUT NO CHANGE INCREASE Lowest quintile 42% of taxpayers 45 14 –$10 Less than $25,000 Second quintile –$40 62% 25 $25,000 - $48,600 Middle quintile 67% 31 –$320 $48,600 - 86,100 Fourth quintile –$710 71% 29 $86,100 - 149,400 80-90 percentile 62% 37 –$560 $149,400 - $216,800 90-95 percentile 53% 47 –$340 $216,800 - $307,900 95-99 percentile 73% 27 –$5,220 $307,900 - $732,800 Top 1 percent –$52,780 66% 34 $732,800 and up Top 0.1 percent 69% 31 –$278,370 $3,439,000 and up Note: Income quintiles are based on cash income and contain an equal number of people. Because of data limitations, the authors of the analysis excluded certain provisions from the data in the chart, including the repeal of the adoption credit and the moving expenses deduction, most likely overestimating the share of taxpayers that would receive a tax cut.

Additional analyses by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy and Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation also found that the tax cuts would shrink over time.

There are a few reasons for this. A new family tax credit would expire in 2023, and the expanded portion of the child tax credit would not be indexed for inflation, so its value would decrease in the coming years. In addition, tax brackets would be indexed to a slower measure of inflation, meaning that by 2027, more income would be taxed at higher rates.

The Tax Foundation, which tends to incorporate high economic growth effects in its estimates, found that the so-called dynamic effects of the bill would actually cause taxpayers to fare better under the bill in 2027 than in 2018.