Ontario could uncork as many as 9,100 new jobs if beer and wine sales are liberalized, a new Retail Council of Canada report suggests.

"Greater choice for alcohol and increase convenience is both a strong win for Ontario consumers as well as for Ontario's economy," said the nine-page study released Tuesday.

The retail lobby group predicted Premier Doug Ford's campaign promise to expand the sale of beer and wine to corner stores and big-box outlets could be good for business.

"Ontario is dead last in Canada when it comes to alcohol choice and convenience," it said, noting the province has 2.4 outlets selling booze per 10,000 people well below the national average of 5.92.

While Ford has promised as many as 11,500 new outlets selling alcohol, the retail council said an additional 4,028 stores would bring Ontario to the Canadian average for access to booze.

"If the province increased its store count to the national average, the overall retail sales and number of jobs created would balloon," said council vice-president Karl Littler.

The retailers estimate that would inject an extra $3.5 billion annually to the Ontario economy. That's based on licensed supermarkets reporting their sales increase an average of $880,000 a year when they sell beer and wine.

Currently, there are about 2,700 locations retailing alcohol, including 660 LCBO outlets, 210 agency stores, 450 supermarkets, 450 Beer Store locations, and hundreds of private wine stores selling Ontario vintages and Canadian-blended plonk.

The Beer Store, which has an ironclad 10-year agreement with Queen's Park signed in 2015, employs 7,000 unionized workers in the province.

Industry sources have told the Star that taxpayers could be on the hook for more than $1 billion in financial penalties if Ford breaks the accord inked by former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne's government four years ago.

That's because under the 27-page "master framework agreement," the brewers agreed to invest $100 million in upgrading beer outlets over four years and to freeze prices for two years.

Those terms have already been fulfilled and the contract suggests the province would have to pay the Beer Store for "descaling costs" if it is forced to close stores and lay off employees due to a decrease in business.

"Such an award shall be calculated on the basis of the normal principles of damages for breach of contract," the agreement says, meaning Queen's Park could be liable for hundreds of millions in severance payments, pension liabilities, and lease termination costs.

The retail council report said even if the Beer Store is forced out of business, costing 7,000 jobs, there would still be a net gain of 2,100 new posts in supermarkets, variety stores, and big box outlets.

"This RCC report calls into question the numbers widely circulated by the Beer Store — that there will be job losses from increasing choice and convenience," study said.

Ken Hughes, the former Alberta cabinet minister hired for $1,000 a day to advise Ford on expanding sales, has dismissed the possibility of the Beer Store collapsing as "fear-mongering."

Hughes told the Star last week that the province has "tools in our tool kit" to get the brewers to agree to revised terms that would allow expanded beer and wine sales.

While he declined to specify on what stick the government would use, he emphasized it was "premature" and to discuss potential compensation to the Beer Store, which is owned by Labatt, Molson, Sleeman, and 30 small Ontario brewers.

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Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie