How would the Sunni community react to the establishment of such a de facto Shiite dictatorship? It seems unlikely that they would simply acquiesce, but even if they did, it would be no guarantee of stability for Iraq. Since Iraq gained (nominal) independence from the British in 1932, it has been wracked by countless coups d'état. The country proved almost impossible to govern for one autocrat after another, each of whom found himself locked in various battles (often literally) with one unhappy group after another. Saddam Hussein was arguably the only Iraqi dictator to create a somewhat stable autocracy--and he was certainly the only one who was able to rule continuously for more than a few years. Of course, he was able to do so only by creating a Stalinist totalitarian state and employing near-genocidal levels of violence. Especially because of the recent experience of the Sunni insurgency and the Iraqi civil war, the likelihood is that a Maliki dictatorship would prove short-lived and unstable, and it could easily end in a new civil war.

It is far more likely that the Sunnis won't acquiesce to Maliki as dictator, even if merely in an opaque, de facto sense. Then the question will be whether they decide to revolt and mount a violent opposition suddenly or more gradually. Either way, we would likely see the Sunni-dominated provinces of al-Anbar, Diyala, Salahaddin and Ninewah distance themselves from the government, demand regional status, cease cooperation with Baghdad, and prevent Iraqi government officials--likely including federal police and army formations--from gaining access or moving around freely in their territory. Terrorist attacks would increase in both intensity and geographic scope as more money and recruits poured in from the Sunni community in Iraq and from neighboring Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Eventually, those terrorist attacks would expand into a full-blown insurgency. If the Iraqi army were to fracture along ethno-sectarian lines, allowing Sunni soldiers to bring their training and heavy weaponry with them to the Sunni side, we could see pitched battles between government forces and well-organized Sunni militias. Iraqis would once again find themselves sliding into all-out civil war, this time without the prospect that the United States would--or even could--save them from themselves.

A Way Forward

What should the United States be doing instead if not trying to help fracture Iraqiya? Washington has relinquished so much of its influence in Iraq. But at the very least, we can and should be outlining what a good solution to the current crisis would look like.

First and foremost, Prime Minister Maliki will need to be convinced to back off from his campaign against the Sunni leadership. Although he blames the Sunnis for starting things by agitating for a regional devolution of power, a right enshrined in the constitution, all he can legally do is insist that they follow the procedures established by law--and then try to persuade Iraqis not to support their bids. Instead he has tried to head off these moves by using all manner of legal and illegal actions to eliminate the Sunni leaders supporting regional status.

Thus Maliki must agree to some face-saving mechanism that would effectively eliminate the arrest warrant against Hashimi (even if it were simply to be placed in some kind of administrative limbo) and enable either Mutlaq to remain as deputy prime minister or allow Iraqiya to choose his replacement. This would have to be accompanied by a renewed commitment by the prime minister to implement the terms of the Erbil agreement, which outlined how the prime minister, the Kurds and Iraqiya would work together to govern Iraq. These conditions will be hard for Maliki and his advisors to accept, but the last will be the hardest by far, since the Erbil agreement mandates real curbs on the prime minister's power. The Sunnis and Kurds (and perhaps some Shia too) now feel these curbs are more important than ever given how he used his powers to go after the Sunni leadership, exactly the sort of thing that the Erbil agreement sought to prevent. Unfortunately, Maliki has so far adamantly refused all of these moves, particularly the elements of the Erbil agreement intended to limit his power.