By Binoy Prabhakar & Mitul Thakkar

A decade after he took over as Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi remains the most polarising political figure of our times. No Indian politician has earned as much admiration and derision as him. Modi is lauded for his development credo, for turning Gujarat into an investment magnet, for making it easy to do business in the state.

Critics say all that is bunkum, linking his pro-business attributes to assiduous use of marketing to erase another legacy of his early days in office — the 2002 Gujarat riots. Modi has repeatedly denied his alleged complicity in the carnage that killed thousands after a coach of the Sabarmati Express train was burnt in the city of Godhra

The riots continue to tie an anchor to all his plans of transforming into an everyman's politician. Yet, many regard him as a prime ministerial candidate because of the UPA government's struggles. But before the general elections, Gujarat will decide in December if it wants him to continue.

Here, ET Magazine pieces together six different narratives that present a sober reflection of Modi's rule. Gujarat under Modi is too complex and fascinating a story to offer one judgement. The real Modi isn’t visible to either the man himself or his critics.

Growth: Real & Apparent

The Gujarat economy has been growing at a steady tick, but the growth is not spectacular. There are also plenty of problems lurking.

On June 25, 2005, Narendra Modi convened a hurriedly called press conference where he was expected to make an important announcement. Senior journalists in Gujarat remember the occasion because the invite came on a Saturday. They had to drop everything they would do on a relatively slow day and rush to the conference. Modi had abundantly exhibited his penchant for sensational declarations during the three years in power.

By then, he had also displayed a keen sense of occasion. A few weeks ago, the US had denied him a visa. A day later, he was to address a crucial meeting of the Planning Commission where Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other chief ministers would attend.

Modi did not disappoint that day. He announced that state flagship Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation had stumbled upon India’s biggest gas find yet. The 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas at the Krishna-Godavari basin off the Andhra Pradesh coast was actually more than all the gas discovered in India. To put the discovery in context, consider what oil and gas experts would make of it.

One tcf of natural gas is enough to heat 15 million homes for a year, generate 100 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, or fuel 12 million natural-gas-fired vehicles for a year. Modi gave it a different spin. With the pomp that was already his signature, Modi said farmers would see oil pouring out of taps. He also said in subsequent public speeches that farmers would now be selling packets of petrol and diesel instead of milk, recalled an analyst who was present.

Cut to the present day, those statements are recounted with chuckles or guffaws. No sooner did Modi make his grand announcement than doubts began to surface. VK Sibal, the then director general of hydrocarbons, the oil and gas sector regulator, said the discovery of 20 tcf appears to be a tall claim based on the result of one (oil) well.

Closer home, GSPC’s technical partner GeoGlobal Resources said it was premature to quantify the gas reserves. Yet, Modi stood by his claims until most of 2007. Turns out the sceptics were right. In truth, GSPC found no more than 2 tcf. But Modi and his administrators now treat the claims as an unfortunate episode that must be quickly forgotten, as they have with every development that runs counter to the Gujarat growth story.

Growth Story

There is little to suggest that Modi has learnt lessons from the GSPC affair. To this day, he is as eager as ever to collect superlatives for his rule. An oft-repeated claim is the spectacular economic growth in Gujarat under his watch. Agriculture in Gujarat has grown more than 9% in the past five years, the highest in India.

Every village in Gujarat is self-sufficient in drinking water thanks to taking the waters of the Narmada river to every nook and corner of the state. Gujarat is the No. 1 in providing jobs. The most retold accomplishment, if it can be called that, is investments worth Rs 39.6 lakh crore promised in the five Vibrant Gujarat summits, Modi’s showpiece meeting of global investors.

Modi has reeled out these headline figures time and again. He also leaves no one in doubt about his starring role in these feats. His website is packed with reports such as: “Narendra Modi holds online grievance programme” and “CM gives necessary directives to the district functionaries for satisfactory solution of people’s problems.”

Each of these seemingly impressive exploits appear lacklustre under scrutiny. Experts and independent observers say it is wrong to identify Gujarat’s development with Modi’s rule alone. Dwijendra Tripathi, an economic historian who taught at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad for three decades, says Gujarat has historically enjoyed a locational advantage due to its 1,600 km coastline. “Its soil is also good for cash crops.”

Complementing these factors is the famed entrepreneurial zeal of the Gujarati. “Entrepreneurship, trade and business are in the blood of every Gujarati,” says the head of a brokerage in Ahmedabad. “But this aspect is omitted when talking about Gujarat these days.”

Indeed, the Gujarati’s affinity for trading and business is legendary. While other states were taking baby steps in industrialisation, Gujarat was about to take the next big leap. “Surat was among the first big ports in India and Ahmedabad was the first city to commission a textile mill after Mumbai in the pre-independent era,” says Tripathi.

The people of Gujarat are also known for their support for development.

Sebastian Morris of IIM Ahmedabad says industrial growth in Gujarat has taken place in capital-intensive and labour-intensive industries where the usual considerations of safety and environment have been kept to a manageable level.” Economist Yoginder K Alagh, chairman of Institute of Rural Management Anand, says Gujarat has always been an open society with a penchant for global ideas and experience. He says the state has grown fast in the last three decades and will continue to do so.

Morris agrees. “When it comes to Gujarat, the first thing to recognise is even in the past, the state has had higher growth than the rest of the country, particularly in manufacturing.

(see The Numbers Tell the Story).

What happened after economic reforms is that other states were able to catch up.”

Not Miraculous

Morris says Gujarat’s growth is undoubtedly quite good, but not miraculous. Other states may have even exceeded Gujarat in certain sectors, according to him. The latest data of the ministry of statistics under the central government supports this argument. Bihar, Delhi and Puducherry are the fastest growing states in the country and Gujarat found no place in the top five for the second successive year, according to the data.

Other headline figures too appear tame on closer look. According to Morris and Alagh, to peg the agricultural growth at 9% is incorrect. In separate studies, they have concluded that average growth in the sector since 2005-06 has been around 3-5%. The difference in the two estimates alone would give reason to pause. There are two statistical sins here, according to Alagh, which he says are unforgivable.

“One is to take bad initial and good terminal years. And growth has been calculated accounting for current prices because that includes inflation.” Both economists prick holes in the claims of the government’s contribution to the agricultural progress. Irrigation coverage is still low, says Alagh.

According to Morris, the main reasons for the agricultural revival are two-fold. Gujarat has benefited from a major shift in rainfall in the past 10 years. He says the Sardar Sarovar Dam project across the Narmada has helped farmers in the state. “But there would be a bigger impact if the canals were finished — they are nowhere near completion. The output [in agriculture] we see is because of water being stolen... pumped through plastic pumps.”

On the job front too, the statistics of the unemployed contradict the government’s claims. Officials of the Directorate of Employment and Training, the nodal agency for distributing jobs, were reluctant to share the latest details of job seekers in the state, but earlier data from the institution reveals that the total number of people who have applied for jobs at the employment exchanges for three years to end December 2010 was nearly 9 lakh compared with more than 8 lakh in 2009.

A senior government official requesting anonymity says in Ahmedabad alone, there are nearly 1 lakh registered job seekers. Unemployment is common in every state, but in the case of Gujarat, it appears staggering when stacked against the number of jobs promised during Vibrant Gujarat Summits.

At the 2011 summit alone, the government declared potential investments would generate 52 lakh jobs. The disparity in numbers holds true for Vibrant Gujarat Summits as well. Only investments worth Rs 3.1 lakh crore have been implemented against the promised Rs 36 lakh crore.

Maheswar Sahu, principal secretary, industries and mines, says implementing a big project involves a lot of processes like environmental clearance and land acquisition. “Any big project will take 5-7 years to take off.” If that were the yardstick, the lion’s share of the MoUs from the first and second Vibrant Gujarat summits should have been implemented. Only, 57.13%, 35.74% and 23.19% of the promised investments have been executed, according to government data

(see More Hype, Less Substance).

Beneath the veneer of prosperity, a raft of problems lurks in Gujarat. The state fares poorly in many social indicators. Nearly 4% children below the age of five suffer from malnutrition and 70% of children suffer from anaemia. Not surprisingly, Gujarat ranks 11th among all states in the Human Development Index, according to the India Human Development Report 2011 published by Planning Commission.

The reasons are straightforward, says Morris. “Income inequality in Gujarat is extraordinarily high. Income is not distributed equally... a small section of people— the capitalist class and the migrant labour — are the biggest beneficiaries of economic progress. In agriculture too, this income inequality is prevalent.”

The very process of development in Gujarat is unequal, according to Morris. “There has been no labour movement to seize a larger share of the benefit. It is only now that skilled labour-intensive industries are springing up — the auto sector is a key example.”

Again, these are all problems common to most states. But in Gujarat, they are particularly glaring because of Modi’s claims of prosperity. (Modi declined to comment for this story despite repeated requests for an interview).

Modi Magic: How it Works

He has cut red tape, he has almost ended corruption and made it easy to do business.

On a sweltering afternoon in mid June, the Sachivalya, the headquarters of the state government in Gandhinagar, was buzzing with activity. Bureaucrats were signing furiously on files and shouting orders to underlings. Soon after, a steady stream of officers walked briskly — some ran — towards their cars. Some jostled for space in packed elevators, where visitors followed them to the way out. It was only 4 pm.

To an outsider who had heard stories of the super efficiency of Gujarat’s administration, the exodus of officials during working hours would come as a surprise. But for people familiar with the Narendra Modi rule, this was humdrum.

The bureaucrats, including senior officers in the rank of principal secretaries, were off to rural areas to monitor the Kanya Kelavani and Shala Pravesh Mahotsav, the government’s massive drive to enroll children in schools. In the next three days, they would visit 34,000 schools in 18,000 villages. They have been at it for the past 10 years. The results are striking. Under Modi, the dropout levels in primary education that was as high 41%

(see Dropout Rate...)

has fallen to under 8%. That is a significant achievement for a society that places entrepreneurship on a higher pedestal than education.

During the twin programmes, ministers and MLAs would be in attendance. But the stars of the show are the bureaucrats. The hustle and bustle at the Sachivalya was a pleasant surprise given that authorities typically slip into lethargy when elections are nigh. This is only because the CM does not allow them to be lazy, says a senior journalist.

To his admirers, Modi comes across as a driven, even obsessive, entrepreneur with a proclivity for micromanagement. The sole enforcers of Modi’s progressive agenda are the authorities. Politicians, including ministers and MLAs, watch from the sidelines. That way, Modi is said to have weeded out red tape in the state.

Admirers of the Gujarat business environment are legion. Business leaders, including Tata Group head Ratan Tata , have been effusive in their praises of Modi. Modi helped Tata Motors establish a factory in Sanand to produce its small car, Nano in quick time after the company was forced out of West Bengal.

Rapid Development

After Tata Motors and Ford, French carmaker Peugeot is building a manufacturing facility at Sanand. Modi is looking to turn the region into an auto hub. Top carmaker Maruti Suzuki is about to establish a plant at Becharaji in Mehsana district. Other companies have similar stories to recount.

Asutosh Shah, managing director of bathroom manufacturer Duravit, says his experience while building a plant in Gujarat was superb. Gujarat was unfamiliar territory to the multinational company, according to Shah. “But we received excellent cooperation from all departments concerned without exception. For example, we needed natural gas connection. GSPC issued a letter of intent in less than a week.”

This clinical efficiency has become the hallmark of every project Modi lends his name to. Take, for example, the Vibrant Gujarat Summit. Officials have already made a trip to China to woo investors for next year. The speed is also characteristic of Gujarat’s jumbo projects such as Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City), the Sabarmati Riverfront Development Project and the Metro Link Express for Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad, or MEGA

(see Modi’s Dream Projects)

, which are progressing at a rapid pace. Modi is also said to work for up to 18 hours a day. He hasn’t taken a holiday for nearly 10 years. Why then the huge inconsistency in the economic indicators?

A senior BJP leader who has known Modi for more than 20 years says if there is a mismatch in results, it is perhaps because he has been unsuccessful in getting people to work at the pace he wants. “Modi succeeds in single projects. The Ahmedabad Bus Rapid Transit System is a shining example. You can’t beat him in such single, time-bound projects where largely only his energy is required. But in a macro project, where the efforts of many people are needed, he comes up short.”





The Big-Bang Publicity

Modi runs a superb PR machine. Admirers take this as proof of a driven man. Critics see pure propaganda.

Assuming Narendra Modi returns to power, here’s a preview of the sixth Vibrant Gujarat Summit next January. A long line of businessmen, analysts and diplomats from around the globe will again assemble. Again, they will shower Modi with praise for making it easy to do business.

Again, a few will address him as a progressive and tireless leader, or a visionary. Again, there will be plenty of handshakes and hugs. Again, a few would encourage counterparts to invest in Gujarat. And again, jaw-dropping investment figures will be announced.

Punit Mawli, vice-president, media relations, Mutual PR, the Gujarat government’s public relations company, says Vibrant Gujarat 2013 promises to be even more spectacular than its predecessors. “Preparations for the summit are in full flow, with 11 teams of officials coupled with more that 100 industrial houses scouting 34 identified countries for further investments in Gujarat.”

Vibrant Gujarat is Modi’s pièce de résistance. Ostensibly designed to attract investments, it has another purpose — to showcase Modi’s credentials as a Vikas Purush, or a man for development. It is an image he has been tirelessly trying to build to eclipse the Godhra riots. Vibrant Gujarat offers a glimpse into the efficacy of Modi’s publicity machinery. Detractors, including Congress leaders, have accused the government of inflating investment figures to grab headlines. Indeed, promises are getting bigger with every investment meeting

(see More Hype...).

But actual investments are a fraction of the promises.

Surreal Development

Authorities say investments take time to fructify and projects executed are for real. “Whenever commissioning is done in any project, not even 60-70% is spent. It is a continuous process,” says Sahu, the industries and mines secretary.

Yet, the common thread running through Modi’s marketing campaigns is the uncanny ability to present a picture of splendour in every endeavour. That explains investment figures running into lakhs of crores, growth figures dwarfing experts’ estimates and of course, ‘India’s biggest gas find’.

The official Socio-Economic Review 2011-12 states that the total length of roads in the state has increased to 74,117 km at the end of 2008-09 from 74,112 km in 2007-08: an achievement of 5 km in one year!

Mawli says usually in PR, an agency finds difficult to manage a reticent client as expectations of the client are not usually matched by its propensity to converse/engage with media. “That has not in been the case with the Gujarat government. It has loads to talk about, be it the developments on the industrial front or the socio-political ones.”

Modi employs two public relations firms — Washington firm APCO Worldwide to cater to the world media and Mutual PR for the Indian media. He is also one of the first Indian politicians to have understood the power of the internet as a marketing medium. Today, he runs his campaigns through Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. He is a methodical blogger and fans can download Narendra apps on the iPhone and Android platforms.

To his admirers, Modi is only trumpeting achievements. But to critics, his marketing reeks of propaganda. Modi’s invite to the Tatas through a text message to establish the Sanand factory is highlighted frequently. What receives less attention is the government’s generous offer of a tax waiver up to 20 years and exemption from stamp duty and electricity duty, among other charges.

Every day, Modi takes his show to Gujarat and outside. Constant reminders of who runs the show in Gujarat include hoardings that are dominated by his big cutouts. Visitors to government offices are greeted with video recordings of Modi even in elevators.

Critics allege that he has also successfully suppressed negative news by making it hard to access government records. Shaktisinh Gohil, leader of opposition, says Gujarat has just three Right to Information commissioners. “Even a small state like Punjab has 10 RTI commissioners. At least 10,000 RTI applications are pending with the government.” Modi baiters like Gohil say an independent assessment of Modi’s record is often buried in manufactured atmosphere of optimism.

Historian Tripathi says Modi has benefited from the foundation created before he became CM.” He was referring to the state’s focus on small and medium enterprises way back in the 1970s. Gujarat was also among the first states to float the idea of public private partnerships.

The BJP insider says Modi’s predecessor’s record was as good as Modi’s if not better. “Keshubhai Patel’s three-year term was much better than the 10-year tenure of Modi, but appears dull because of Modi’s better marketing... Previous governments neglected showcasing achievements.”

“In my view, he has been unable to change the system. He is a good marketer.. he is projecting a better image than the truth.”

The Invisible Hand in Gujarat

It works in mysterious ways. So it pays to be in the good books of Modi. Here’s what happened to those who weren’t

The office of Canada’s GeoGlobal Resources is located in the unlikeliest of places for an oil explorer: the Info City in Ahmedabad, a business hub that houses IT companies in Gujarat. Given that the state government’s IT dreams never really took off, GeoGlobal may have had little trouble in securing the office. The 11,000 sq ft office can accommodate 50 employees, but on a Monday morning in early June, it was deserted, except for 11 members of the current workforce.

GeoGlobal arrived in Gujarat the early 2000s with big dreams. The New York Stock Exchange-listed company became the technical partner of state-owned GSPC. After Narendra Modi announced the 20 tcf gas find, the GeoGlobal scrip shot up to $8.5 on June 28, 2005 from $3.39 the previous day. But the company had to comply with stringent American laws and informed regulators that it was premature to estimate the quantum of gas. For Modi, this was a setback. Here was GSPC’s own partner casting doubts on his claims.

GeoGlobal’s troubles started soon after. GSPC asked the company to share exploration and development costs although this was a clear breach of contract, according to documents on the terms of the partnership accessed by ET Magazine. Subsequently, GSPC accused the company of providing a wrong geological model and blamed it for cost overruns. (A state government certificate of commendation is kept atop a table in the office).

Today, GeoGlobal is at the receiving end of the dispute with GSPC. Company officials refused to comment, asking us to leave once we introduced ourselves as journalists. But a financial analyst who has advised the company says GeoGlobal has invested $57 million to date in Gujarat and has zero returns to show. The scrip has nosedived to less than $ 0.4.

GeoGlobal’s litany of woes can be dismissed as a spat between partners, but it is something of an anomaly in a state known for its full-on support for businesses. The Canadian company’s experience has a bigger message — getting on the wrong side of the government can be disastrous.

The visible hand in Gujarat makes it easy to do business. But there is also an invisible hand that can wreak havoc. Take for example, the public spat between Verghese Kurien , the man behind the Amul brand, and Modi. At a public function in 2004, Kurien criticised the government’s decision to split the Gujarat Agriculture University into four. It was the beginning of the end of Kurien’s career.

For years, Kurien had kept Amul’s apex marketing body Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation ( GCMMF ) free of political interference. But under pressure from fellow directors, he was forced to resign amid controversies. The BJP grabbed the opportunity to wrest control of one of the world’s largest dairy cooperatives.

“Amul gives you control over 30 lakh dairy farmer families, which means almost a crore voters,” says a confidante of Kurien. Under Modi’s watch, the BJP tweaked the Cooperative Act to install its party workers in district cooperatives. The very character of cooperatives in Gujarat has been destroyed, says the person.

A senior executive of an oil and gas powerhouse says his experience in Gujarat has been that the government withdraws once a factory is set up. “Say, a company faces tax troubles, it is left to fend for itself. I am not sure which is more important for the CM: the welfare of industry or the state.”

Vibrant Gujarat apart, many companies with businesses in Gujarat participate in government-organised events such as the international kite festivals, Navaratri and Krishi Melas. An oil company at a festival for farmers? “If you ask me, there is no sense, but we have to.”

Just after he said this, this official cut short the conversation. “He [Modi] has a way of finding who talks to the media. So I have this to tell you: he is great.”

Juhapura and its Citizens

How do Muslims fare in Modi’s Gujarat? Those in business say there’s no real problem. But many others feel left out.

Nestled on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, towards the west, is Juhapura. A 4-km stretch of road teeming with vehicles cuts the area into two. Huts, bungalows and apartments jostle for space on either side, trying hard to accommodate a population of nearly 4 lakh.

Today, Juhapura is one of the largest Muslim ghettos in India, but it had humble beginnings. It was built to rehabilitate people affected by the floods in 1973. The population was largely Muslim, but the affluent stayed away because of its haphazard wall-to-wall buildings. All that changed in February 2002.

In the aftermath of the riots, Muslims from across the city resettled in Juhapura. It was crowded, the amenities were poor, but the area offered security. Naedeem Jafri arrived in Juhapura in 2002 for the same reason. He relocated from Paldi, an area dominated by the Jain community. Jafri is a Cheliya, a group of Muslims prospering from the hospitality boom in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

In 2004, he quit an advertising agency to launch a retail outlet in Juhapura. It was a risky move. “There was a dumpyard next to my shop. Juhapura didn’t yet appeal to educated and prosperous Muslim families.” But Jafri also had the advantage of being an early mover. There were no modern retail stores yet in Juhapura and though business was slow, he knew customers would come eventually. The move paid off.

Today, Jafri runs a chain of 11 outlets under the banner of ‘Hearty Mart’. The dumpyard has turned into a private bus parking and his shop attracts decent footfall. “I did not get any external support to build my business. At the same time, nobody discouraged me,” Jafri says.

True, Ahmedabad hasn’t had another riot since 2002, though the aftermath of the carnage continues to play out in courtrooms, in the media and in the minds of the victims. “We are able to do business freely,” says another businessman who moved to Juhapura after the riots.

In recent years, Narendra Modi has been wooing Muslims to the BJP fold, claiming that Muslims are equal beneficiaries of Gujarat’s growth. He is expected to field many Muslim candidates in the assembly elections in December.

How do Muslims view Modi? “It is easy for me to forgive Modi because I lost only my business in the riots. But I can’t speak for people like Zakia Jafri [wife of slain Congress leader Ehsan Jaffri],” says the businessman. He is among the scores of Muslims in Juhapura who have turned BJP supporters. In 2010, the party swept polls for six municipal corporations and claimed it got more than 30% of the Muslim vote.

That is surprising because Muslims have traditionally voted for the Congress and the Godhra riots happened under Modi’s watch. Explaining the shift, the businessman says, “Some of us vote for BJP because we do not have any alternative in the Congress. It is not that the Modi government has been good to Muslims.”

Indeed, Muslims in Gujarat continue to face problems. In mid June, nearly 50 Muslims trooped into Opposition leader Gohil’s chambers at the secretariat. They were there to complain against police harassment after a Muslim boy eloped with a Hindu girl.

The eyes of a few women in the group welled up as they recounted tales of their men being beaten up by the police. Gohil asked them to sign a petition to the home secretary and called up the director general of police to resolve the matter. “Shouldn’t they be meeting the CM?” asks Gohil.

Juhapura’s residents too recount similar tales of apathy from the administration. Many pockets face an acute shortage of water. Residents are forced to buy water from private tanker services. “We wrote to the chief minister and mayor to no avail,” says MH Jowher, president of Society for Promoting Rationality, an NGO.

Revised rules have made it hard for Muslims to buy properties in Hindu-dominated areas and vice-versa. It is also not possible for Muslim children to gain admission in schools, thanks to unwritten rules. Rizwan Quadri, president of Ahmedabad Sunni Muslim Wakf Committee, says schools discourage Muslims families by stalling their applications.

Jafri believes that Muslims must go for a brand makeover. “Muslims must showcase their role in nation building. There is resistance in society. But Gujarat lets you do your work. Nobody minds your religion if you are good at your work.”

His Chances at the Polls

Rebellion in BJP & a pumped-up Congress. Modi faces his biggest electoral battle yet. Will he scrape through?

In October 2005, a few days before the municipal elections in Ahmedabad, Narendra Modi addressed a large public gathering in the city. The Ahmedabad mayor then was Anisa Begum Mirza of the Congress. Modi told the crowd that it was time the people of the city ended Mughal sashan (rule). He said people must vote for his Bharatiya Janata Party to end the rule of the begum.

At subsequent meetings, Modi repeated these lines. The tactic to attack Mirza’s religion worked; the BJP wrested control of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, winning 96 seats of 129, while the tally of the Congress was reduced to 32. Analysts had assumed that Modi’s antenna by then was tuned to the development plank. Here he was, returning to a familiar strategy.

The incident is fresh in the minds of political observers while assessing Modi’s chances of winning the assembly elections in December. Preparations are in full swing. A delimitation exercise that has redrawn nearly 60 constituencies has top leaders of the BJP and Congress scrambling for new havens. BJP and Congress leaders have already started criticising each other in press conferences.

Still, the assembly elections will be a fight between Modi and the Congress. The Gujarat CM represents the BJP while the Congress is represented by a gaggle of leaders. Modi is said to have already assessed the caste composition in the redrawn assembly seats.

His micromanagement skills in administration will surely be handy while selecting candidates, but that may not be his trump card. “He could drop the entire cabinet or select 80% new candidates,” says the BJP insider. “Or he could again come up with a communally sensitive issue to sail through.”

Trump Card

Opposition leader Gohil says Modi goes on a ‘religious trip’ during elections — Sohrabudin Sheikh (a gangster who was killed in an encounter with the police), Pakistan etc. “He tries to get votes from religion despite all the talk about development.” Modi baiters are certain he will pull a rabbit out of his hat only to ensure that there are no complications in his reelection bid. This assessment gains credence because Modi could be facing his biggest electoral battle yet.

Despite his best efforts to paint a rosy picture, there are large sections of people upset with Modi. Farmers of coastal Saurashtra have opposed a cement plant belonging to Nirma. The government’s land acquisition policy has been largely trouble-free, but there are many fishermen and labourers along the coastline who feel cheated, according to analysts.

Even Modi’s image as a progressive leader may not have the desired effects. “Large industries do not mean large employment. Modi’s focus has been on investments rather than on jobs so that state builds its profile,” says the brokerage head.

Adding to Modi’s troubles is the widespread discontent in the Patel community, which has splinter groups such as Kadvas, Lahuas, Angdas, Anjanas, Choudharys and Kolis and forms a sixth of Gujarat’s population. “In the last elections, Patel leaders were unhappy. This time the whole community is unhappy,” says Gohil. The Congress wrested the Mansa seat from the BJP after 22 years in a recent by-election. The constituency, which is adjacent to Gandhinagar, has 53,000 Patels.

Modi will also face trouble from his own party. Infighting within the BJP has intensified. Senior BJP leaders Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta have publicly assailed Modi. Despite the support from the RSS brass, local leaders are unhappy with Modi’s role in the expulsion of his bete noire Sanjay Joshi. Modi also has no friends in saffron splinter groups, the VHP and Bajrang Dal, which have been sidelined under his rule.

Absence of a cadre for election work may not have hurt Modi in the past. But this time, the Congress says it has put its house in order. Besides putting up a united front, the party began its preparations for the elections six months ago. Its leaders have toured 160 assembly constituencies, 282 towns and 47 tribal blocks, according to Gohil. “Now we are focusing on booth management and training workers in every constituency.”

The Congress gave 22 tickets to BJP dissidents in the last elections. Only one got elected. Gohil says only one criterion will decide candidates this time: their chances of winning. In the last election, the Congress also targeted Modi for his communal leanings. It backfired. That was a mistake, says Gohil. “We have learnt our lessons.”

The party will concentrate its efforts on attacking Modi’s development credentials. In early June, Union ministers P Chidambaram, Ambika Soni and Salman Khurshid attacked Modi’s poor social record in indicators in a joint press conference in Ahmedabad.

The Congress has also established a chartered account cell to “expose Modi”. Kailash Kumar Gadhvi, chairman of the cell, professionals in the party will tell the real growth story in Gujarat. “We are also helping the party to understand the national auditor’s reports on Gujarat and different economic indicators.”

Indeed, in recent months, the Congress has increasingly stepped up efforts to assail Modi’s economic record. The government inked MoUs worth Rs 52,000 crore in tourism during the Vibrant Gujarat Summits of 2007 and 2009, but in the state assembly, it said that projects worth Rs 415 crore have been implemented until December 2010.

Does this mean that Modi is on a weak wicket? The brokerage head says the urban population may see through Modi’s development credentials, but it would work with the electorate in villages. Referring to the rebellion, the BJP insider says some people are always working against Modi. “He is aware of the dissidence. Anyway, the BJP worker is highly emotional and will not vote against party.”

Modi is constantly monitoring public response, according to this person. “He is perhaps the only CM in India to hold up to 20 public meetings a month. This allows him to get a feel of the public mood... regardless of what you newspaper guys write.”

The BJP leader says as an RSS pracharak and CM, Modi has travelled lakhs and lakhs of miles across the state — there are about 35,000 booths in the state; he knows the booths that will deliver. “And there are no real issues hurting the people to topple this government. They are not happy, that does not mean they are unhappy.”