After years of deflecting criticism of its unreliable buses, MTA Maryland appears to be having a “Come to Jesus” moment.

In the last couple of months, MTA has quietly and dramatically revised some on-time performance numbers for its core bus service.

Before the launch of BaltimoreLink on June 18, MTA claimed a 77 percent on-time performance(OTP) rate for FY 2017 — and an 85 percent OTP for FY 2016.

A page from MDOT-MTA’s 2018 annual attainment report showing local bus OTP since 2008. FY 2017 shows 77%. FY 2016 shows 85%.

But on January 24, 2018, at the Baltimorelink hearing at the statehouse, MTA Administrator Kevin Quinn made a stark revision.

He told the members of the House Transportation and Environment sub-committee that in fact, in the “fall” of 2016 (August — February) only 62% of MTA’s buses were reaching their stops on time.

Why was the MTA revising its numbers a year and a half after their release?

What happened to those 15 percentage points?

He admitted to the delegates what Baltimore City bus riders have known for years: that the way MTA was evaluating its on-time performance was not accurate.

Quinn, who had been on the job for only six months, explained that the agency transitioned from using Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) to an Automated Passenger Counter (APC) system a few months ago because AVL was not accurate enough and MTA’s significantly lower on-time performance numbers reflect that shift.

(You can listen to Quinn at the 2:04 mark.)

Here is what he said:

“In the past we were using a technology [AVL] and relying on a technology that essentially counted a bus that did not spit back data from a particular node as being 100% on time. That is a big assumption to make — that if the bus doesn’t spit back data because the technology on it is wrong that it counted as on time. And so we’ve made a decision not to go with that methodology anymore. I don’t think that that appropriately reflects the customers’ experience.”

“Inflated Our On-Time Performance Numbers… “

Two LocalLink #65 buses on Pratt Street last fall.

But January 24 was just the beginning of MTA’s on-time performance reckoning.

In early March, this time before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Quinn walked back pre-BaltimoreLink numbers even further.

He told the Public Safety, Environment and Transportation sub-committee that before BaltimoreLink (specifically from July-December 2016), city buses were actually on-time only 59.5% of the time.

He gave this committee the same explanation, but admitted outright that the previous methodology had “inflated” MTA’s performance numbers.

He said: “buses that were essentially not reporting were counted as 100% on time.” (You can listen to him at the 1:41 mark).

MDOT’s Deputy Secretary of Operations Jim Ports, who sat next to Quinn, said of the revisions: “It’s a difficult thing to put out there,” adding that “we cannot fix something if we aren’t recording it correctly.”

Ports and Quinn then underscored the agency’s commitment to “getting that number much higher” through “innovative technology fixes” such as transit signal priority, dedicated bus lanes, and mobile ticketing.

Then they quickly wrapped up the hearing.

Real Transparency Means Telling Your Customers

CityLink Gold on North Avenue this fall.

That was about two weeks ago.

While I don’t doubt Quinn’s sincerity — I admire his willingness to own these numbers. It’s refreshing, and what the agency needs — I am struck by the fact that as of March 12, MTA has yet to note this “reset” on its performance improvement web page.

EDIT: As of March 19, MTA’s OTP numbers were updated back to 2016.

Screen shot from MTA’s Performance Improvement web page taken on March 12.

In fact, MTA’s performance improvement web page still says that local bus “has maintained an average [OTP] of 78–85%.”

The y axis on the performance chart doesn’t even go below 70 percent.

As far as I can tell, MTA also failed to mention the “reset” in its otherwise comprehensive BaltimoreLink Performance Report to the Maryland General Assembly.

If MTA is going to be “transparent” about its reliability, it needs to do so publicly — not just in front of lawmakers in Annapolis.

The agency needs to correct its performance improvement web site for at least the last two years, give its riders an explanation, and answer some questions.

For starters:

1.) Have these inflated numbers been fostering a sense of complacency that led to MTA’s underfunding?

2.) Now that we have more “accurate” data, and we know how bad things are — MTA’s OTP for LocalLinks, which carry more than half the riders in the system, is about 14 percentage points below its goal — what investments are needed?

That would be real transparency.