Who get to govern?

A panel discussion moderated by Geoff Plant

Oct. 7

5:30 p.m. to 7 p.m.

Doors open at 5 p.m.

Room 1420, Segal Centre

SFU Vancouver, 515 West Hastings Street

The 41st Canadian Parliament may well result in a minority government, but depending on the major party’s seat counts, it could take a variety of forms.

Since the mid-1960s, parties that have won the most seats without a clear majority have gone on to govern effectively, either by forming alliances or by convincing their opponents that defeating the governing party would not be in their best interests. But with such a strong three-way race developing in this election campaign, it is worth noting that on one occasion the leader of the party with the second-most seats in the house — Liberal William Lyon Mackenzie King — convinced Governor-General Lord Byng in 1925 to allow him to attempt to govern.

It was a flop. But modern-era leaders have fared better.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has had more success governing with a minority in the House of Commons than any federal party leader in Canadian history, spanning two terms covering more than five years. And he did it without any public commitment from a minority party to back his agenda, instead bartering deals with various parties who would “vanish” from the House during important votes to avoid triggering an election.

It helped Harper a great deal that none of the opposition parties had the financial resources to fight campaigns in quick succession, especially after the 2008 election of a second-consecutive Tory minority.

It would be foolish to count Harper out, even if the Conservatives can’t win a majority of seats.

Some minorities have been outright failures, lasting less than a year, but occasionally the deals struck by parties have resulted in lasting change for Canadian society.

The second-most successful minority prime minister, Lester Pearson, retained power by striking agreements with the New Democrats that saw the introduction of national health care and the Canada Pension Plan.

Mackenzie King managed to retain power for one year and 10 months in the early 1920s down by just one or two seats, and then another 204 days after the 1925 election by brokering a deal with the Progressives to wield a majority, even though the Arthur Meighen-led Conservatives had won more seats. It was the only time in the post-Confederation era that the second-place finisher was able to retain power.

Like many minority governments, Meighen’s lasted only a few months after Mackenzie King grudgingly resigned when his coalition failed.

In fact, the fluidity of federal minority government coalitions in Canadian history — none has ever been formalized — has led six such governments to collapse in less than a year.

We asked local experts to run through the possible scenarios that could result from the federal election, should no clear winner emerge. Herman Bakvis of the University of Victoria’s School of Public Administration, history professor Barbara Messamore of the University of the Fraser Valley, and Simon Fraser University political scientist Andrew Heard provided expert advice and historical perspective.