On Dec. 31, 2018, we made 58 predictions on what might unfold in China in 2019. Our predictions covered seven categories: Politics, the economy, military, society, cross-Strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and China and the world.

Based on our tally, 31 of our 58 predictions (53.44 percent) have been verified as of Q1 2019. Another three predictions are on track to being confirmed.

Noteworthy items which we accurately predicted include the collapse of big Chinese tech companies (pinganfang.com and property service “unicorn” Aiwujiwu), government tax reductions, tightening of capital controls, escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and the Trump administration’s continued efforts to isolate the CCP on the world stage.

Our forecasting ability and grasp of macro geopolitical trends are built on our research and analysis of CCP elite politics. Party elite politics is upstream of virtually all matters in China today, and at the core of elite politics are factional struggles within the Party.

Businesses, investors, and governments who wish to understand China and its future directions must track CCP elite politics. Through monitoring elite politics, investors, businesses, and governments can sidestep risks, avoid being blindsided by Black Swan events, and discover hidden opportunities relating to China.

See our China 2019 forecasts and verification in the table below. (Click the arrows to expand details.)