Welcome to part two of my mock draft review. If you missed part one or want more insight into my overall strategy click here! Let’s jump right into it.

11.137 – Kyle Hendricks (SP, Chicago Cubs)

If there is a theme for my draft, it’s somewhat boring but effective, and Kyle Hendricks fits right in. I view this pick as a continuation of Dan’s SUPER SECRET PITCHING PLAN (see my earlier draft recap) in that he is a set-it-and-forget-it pitcher who can provide solid stability to my staff in the instance that something happens to Luis Castillo as my ace. He also fits the idea of finding guys who were pretty much the same player in 2019 as they were in 2018. His ERA, WHIP, K%, BB% and HR/9 were nearly identical from 2018 to 2019. That’s exactly the sort of dependability I want out of my SP3. It’s fair to say that with Zack Greinke and Hendricks I’ve sacrificed Ks, but I think my ERA and WHIP will prosper for it. Also based on his pitch mix, I’m not sure Hendricks doesn’t have a little bit of upside in 2o20, especially when it comes to strikeouts.

He is mostly known for his excellent changeup, but the pitch actually wasn’t a good one in 2019 as it registered a -1.0 pVAL on the season. That’s a bit misleading, though, as he gave up a mere .264 batting average and 83 wRC+ on the year. I think two things hurt it, namely a single percentage-point increase in the pitch’s HR/FB% along with a seven-point increase in fly-ball percentage, which led to way more changeups hit for home runs. The other thing that took its toll on the pitch was a near 10-point increase in zone percentage for the pitch. It seems like Hendricks used the pitch to steal strikes in the zone more often than he has in years past. It’s worth noting that the pitch still had over a 14.0% swinging-strike rate and qualified as a Money Pitch, so it still had all the qualities of a great offering.

Now let’s talk about Hendricks’ four-seamer. A 10.3-pVAL pitch in 2019, it improved in every way. It was barely a plus pitch in 2018, but the jump in Hendricks’ fastball came courtesy of much better location. Look at the zone map for his fastball in 2018.

Now look at it for 2019:

This past season, Hendricks threw that four-seamer up in the zone way more often, and the results speak for themselves. From 2018 to 2019, the pitch’s swinging-strike rate doubled to over 12.3%, while its contact rate dropped almost 8.0%. Add in that he threw it more often (4.3-point increase) in 2019 (thankfully at the expense of his mediocre sinker), and there’s reason to be excited for Hendricks’ fastball in 2020.

Hendricks’ fastball wasn’t the only pitch that made a big leap in 2019 as his curveball made waves as well. In 2018 over about 260 pitches, it had only managed a 6.9 K%, but in 2019? 31.3%. That’s nuts. Why did we see such a jump? Once again it’s all about location. Here’s the 2018 zone profile:

And now the 2019 zone profile:

Hendricks has always thrown his curveball down in the zone, which is what we want, but it’s worth paying attention to the exact locations. Those two large zones at the bottom of the zone profiles are mostly on the edge of the zone to outside the zone, while those three smaller boxes right above them are the bottom of the zone. If you add them, he threw 38 strikes in 2018 in those three boxes, but in 2019, 68 of his curveballs ended up in that same area. This is huge. One of the keys to having your curveball being an effective strikeout pitch is being able to establish that you can throw it in the bottom of the zone for strikes. If you don’t do this, then hitters know that the moment they see that curveball dive down, they don’t have to swing. In 2019 with Hendricks’ curveball they never know if it’s going to drop in the zone for a strike to dive lower, which helps explain why the pitch’s’ O-swing jumped 9.1 percentage points in 2019. If he can continue this success with these pitches and iron out a few things with his changeup, we could be looking at a huge breakout, as his one-pitch mix suddenly becomes a devastating three-pitch arsenal.

12.146 – Caleb Smith (SP, Miami Marlins)

So now with a solid SP1-SP3 established, I decided it was time to grab some strikeouts and some upside with my next pick. Caleb Smith is a fascinating pitcher to me. First of all, his four-seamer does this:

That’s just nutty. I didn’t realize physics let us do that with baseballs. According to FanGraphs, Smith’s fastball has the third-most horizontal movement in baseball, and that’s rad. But that’s not his only good pitch, his changeup is filthy too:

Oh and his slider ain’t too bad either:

So that’s three filthy-looking pitches, but you still say, “Dan, who cares how good the pitches look, why should we give a hoot about a guy with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP?” Fair question. My retort is that once again the full-season numbers don’t tell the whole story. In 2019 Smith had a Tale of Two Seasons, and if a hip injury hadn’t derailed his 2019, we’d likely be talking him up as one of the breakout pitchers of the year. Early on in 2019, Smith was dominating opposing teams and looked like an ace in the making, but on June 6, Smith was placed on the IL with said hip injury, which ended up costing him a month. When he came back from the injury, he just wasn’t the same player. This makes a ton of sense as we know that the hips are a huge part of pitching and so not having them at 100% would have a big effect on Smith’s abilities. Take a look at this comparison for Smith’s numbers pre- and posy-injury.