Development in Hillsboro just off of U.S. 26. (Torsten Kjellstrand/file)

The Metro regional government is headed without much fuss toward a decision on whether to open more land for development.

The evaluation of whether to expand the urban growth boundary, beyond which development is tightly restricted, usually feels like a mostly academic exercise, yet it rarely avoids controversy.

This cycle, however, coming three years after the last, has been uncharacteristically quiet -- at least, before Metro Chief Operating Officer Martha Bennett puts a recommendation on the table, expected late this month.

That might be in part because Metro is for the first time considering four specific tracts of land as expansion candidates, each backed by a city that's drafted a plan for development and associated infrastructure. That is, if it decides to make any expansion at all.

The decision also comes amid a housing shortage, driven by population growth and a lack of new housing built in the most recent recession, that has pushed prices ever higher for homebuyers and renters.

Read more: Portland's hot housing market is cooling off

Metro estimates that over the next 30 years, more than 500,000 residents and 279,000 households will be added to the seven-county region, not all of which is within Metro's boundaries.

But the four proposals would add only about 9,000 homes. That's too few to have more than a modest effect on the affordability of homes for sale, and their effect on prices for renter-occupied housing will be negligible, the agency said. Overall, Metro's forecast calls for the vast majority of new homes to be built within the existing urban growth area, either on vacant land or through redevelopment.

The new approach, tied to city-sponsored expansion plans, is an effort to avoid the missteps of previous expansions, where residents halted development at the ballot box, or where unanticipated infrastructure costs delayed breaking ground for years. Requiring some of that work up front has resulted in just four expansion proposals.

"It tells you that it's really challenging to build new communities," said Ted Reid, a principal regional planner for Metro. "There are tremendous costs associated with the infrastructure they need, and when you call the question and cities have to grapple with those challenges, you get many fewer proposals than you might imagine."

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A rural site in Damascus, with development in Happy Valley seen in the background. Damascus was the site of a 10,000-acre urban ground area expansion in 2002, but it's seen virtually no development since then. (Molly Harbarger/file)

Developers still quibble with Metro's methodology. The Portland Metro Home Builders Association says Metro might be overestimating the development potential of land already in the urban growth area, and it might also be overestimating the demand for multifamily apartments and condos in its forecasts.

But the home builders' association, which typically favors opening more land for development, supports the four proposed expansions.

"It has the potential to the potential to better reflect what the community is aspiring to," said Paul Grove, the association's chief lobbyist, "and to help the region meet the need we currently face."

Grove said this year's decision-making process had been more tranquil in part because Metro was discussing potential expansions up front.

"It's not been done as much in the abstract," Grove said. "You have some actual tangible proposals in front of you."

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The Wilsonville neighborhood of Villebois, a 2000 addition to the Portland urban growth area, was one of the region's busiest development areas for single-family houses in recent years. (Luke Hammill/file)

The land-use group 1000 Friends of Oregon hasn't taken a position on any of the proposals, but said Metro's forecasts supported no expansion of the urban growth boundary, or a small expansion.

Mary Kyle McCurdy, the group's deputy director, said Metro's report emphasizes a need for neighborhoods with services in centrally located areas, not on the region's fringe.

"No matter what we do with the urban growth boundary, the real way we address affordability for middle- and low-income people is through the existing urban growth boundary, and how we use the land within the urban growth boundary more efficiently."

Typically, the discussion also covers whether to add land for industrial or commercial uses, in addition to land for housing. This time around, that's been a non-issue; no city proposed adding land to support jobs, and Metro's forecast found no need for it.

"We're really focused on keeping the decisions grounded in what's practical and feasible and what cities are asking for," Reid said.

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Meet the four proposed expansion areas

Four cities have offered plans for expansion areas during this year's urban growth management decision. Here's how they stack up.

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Beef Bend South (King City)

Acres: 528

Buildable acres: 400

Homes planned: 3,300

King City, a formerly age-restricted retirement community built around a golf course, has doubled its population in recent years, reaching 4,800 residents through annexation and new development. Its proposal would potentially double it again, and it would add a new town center on the far west side of the expansion.

The proposal would include a mix single family detached and attached, apartments, condominiums and manufactured homes. The greatest density would be near the new town center on the west end of the expansion area, with less density on the east end.

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Cooper Mountain (Beaverton)

Acres: 1,242

Buildable acres: 600

Homes planned: 3,760

Cooper Mountain proposal sits in between two previous expansion areas, North Cooper Mountain and South Cooper Mountain, that were brought into the growth boundary in 2002 and 2011 respectively. South Cooper Mountain, though added more recently, has been more intensively developed because it was more accessible to infrastructure like water and sewer systems. It's expected to be fully built out within five years, Beaverton officials said.

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Frog Pond East/South (Wilsonville)

Acres: 271

Buildable acres: 192

Homes planned: 1,325

Wilsonville has proposed to add acreage surrounding the newly constructed Meridian Creek Middle School and a site for a future 10-acre park. Work began in recent weeks to prepare a 181-acre initial phase of the Frog Pond area, added to the urban growth area in 2002, for redevelopment.

The proposal calls for mostly single-family houses, including attached rowhouses. The development is expected to occur over a 15- to 17-year timeline

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Witch Hazel Village South (Hillsboro)

Acres: 150

Buildable acres: 75

Homes planned: 850

The proposed expansion area is located on Hillsboro's southern edge. It abuts the Witch Hazel Village expansion area, which was added in 1999 and is still under development. It's also near the South Hillsboro expansion area added in 2011, where development is just getting underway.

Hillsboro said the area would include a variety of housing types from large-lot single-family houses to medium-density apartments.

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-- Elliot Njus

enjus@oregonian.com

503-294-5034

@enjus