The oil price will head lower as the US shale revolution continues to drive a structural change in the market.

In a research note sent to clients on 26 October analysts at Goldman Sachs said they were increasingly confident that the oil market will be oversupplied in 2015.

The specific drivers of the above will be: accelerating non-OPEC production outside North America growing faster than demand, the scale and sustainability of the US shale oil revolution driving the global cost curve lower and OPEC no longer acting as the first-mover swing producer.

The broker now sees front month West Texas crude futures falling to $75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2015 and remaining at that level throughout the second half of the year. Previously Goldman Sachs had been expecting it to be at $90 per barrel in the second half of next year.

Brent front-month futures are seen at $85 per barrel in the second half of 2015, versus $100 beforehand.

In the second quarter of 2015 Brent futures are seen dropping to $80 per barrel and West Texas crude futures to $70 per barrel.

Interestingly, the analysts note that “uncertainty around the required price to slow down US shale production growth is a key risk to our price forecast.”

They also explained to clients how investors re-positioning was what triggered the recent sell-off in prices – that far exceeded the actual weakening in fundamentals.