This Saturday, many teams saw some of their hopes for the rest of the season come crashing down. While this sounds terrible, it is all part of college football. In this article, I will talk about how things might have been too good to be true for some teams, and what they can do to salvage their season.

Baylor

While Saturday night was a rough one for Baylor, it did not start off that way. The Bears led 28-3 in the second quarter and 31-10 at halftime. Their win probability at halftime 94.5%. During the second half, Baylor seemingly forgot how to function on offense and eventually blew their lead to lose 34-31. Of their five offensive possessions in the second half, Baylor went three and out three times, fumbled on the first play of one of their drives, and threw an interception on one their last drive of the game. The Bears gained 73 yards in the second half and 32 of those were on a single run by JaMycal Hasty where he eventually fumbled. On the other hand, Oklahoma came away with at least a field goal on four of their six drives in the second half and a touchdown on three. One of those six drives also was just them kneeling out the clock on a victory.

To put it simply, what worked for the Bears in the first half got them nowhere in the second half and they could not find a way to get any sort of movement. To be fair, the offensive issues in the second half are not any kind of anomaly. Baylor scored just nine points in regulation in their most recent game before Oklahoma, a 29-23 triple overtime win over TCU. Before that, they scored just 17 in a close win over a not very good West Virginia team. Negative plays killed Baylor as they had a loss of yardage on each of their three and outs, which can greatly reduce or even eliminate the possibility of a run. Because of this, Baylor was left with the choice to either run the ball and kill clock, or try to make something happen through the air. While it is hard to fault Baylor too much for trying to keep their offense going when it was firing on all cylinders in the first half, they put way too much of the game on quarterback Charlie Brewer. Of Baylor’s 52 offensive plays, Brewer threw it or ran with it on 46 of them. While I think Brewer is a solid quarterback, he is not good enough to carry this heavy of a workload in a big game like this and very few quarterbacks really are (do not worry Baylor fans as when my Texas Longhorns come to Waco on Saturday, Brewer will be good enough to shred our defense while the announcers repeatedly talk about how Texas did not offer him out of high school). The fact that he had 17 rushing attempts while they had five combined rushing attempts from all running backs is a bit ridiculous. While Baylor does not have one true workhorse back, they have three solid ones in JaMycal Hasty, John Lovett, and Trestan Ebner. Why those three were not given more of an opportunity is beyond me. This loss was surprising given the circumstance, but Baylor has been playing with fire a bit this season. The Bears have had five wins by eight or fewer points and their inability to put away lesser teams truly came back to bite them.

For Oklahoma, a big reason for their success in the second half was ball control and endurance. Oklahoma had the ball for 24 minutes in the second half and their offense never tired out, but Baylor’s defense did. Jalen Hurts actually had a slightly below average game from a statistical perspective, but I think his ability to stay calm and poised while leading a comeback of this magnitude is a skill that not many quarterbacks have. Hurts completed 30/42 passes for 297 yards while adding another 114 on the ground. While he did have two fumbles and an interception, what really matters is that he was able to dig Oklahoma out of the hole. Defensive end Ronnie Perkins also deserves a shoutout as he had three sacks and four tackles for loss on the day.

While this loss for Baylor is surely a crushing one, I think they are still in a very good spot in terms of their program. When Matt Rhule was hired after the 2016 season, Baylor was marred in a scandal and saw quite a few players leaving the program. They went 1-11 in Rhule’s first season but his ability to rally the troops and keep the team improving has been remarkable. It will be interesting to see how Rhule does in the future as he has already done a tremendous job in Waco. Barring a complete collapse by either team, the Bears will get another shot at Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. A win there still might not be enough to get into the playoff, but it will still be huge for their program.

Minnesota

Minnesota was flying high last week after they had a huge win over Penn State. The Golden Gophers were 9-0 and had an undefeated regular season in their sights. Unfortunately for them, while they were riding high, they had a game at Iowa on their horizon. While I do not want to make assumptions, it can be easy to play poorly the next week after a big win, and Minnesota definitely did not have their best day as they lost 23-19 to the Hawkeyes.

Minnesota’s biggest issue during this game was their inability to get going on the ground. Running back Rodney Smith has his lowest total in rushing yards all season as he had just 46 on 14 carries. While Smith’s performance was not great, a lot of blame also needs to be placed on the offensive line. The offensive line also was a hindrance on the passing game. Tanner Morgan still did well through the air, completing 25/36 passes for 368 yards and Tyler Johnson came up big for the Golden Gophers with 170 receiving yards on nine catches. Where things went wrong was that Morgan was sacked six times and struggled to get comfortable in the pocket facing consistent pressure.

Minnesota also left some points on the board. While it was 50 yards, they still missed a field goal, and also came up short and a fourth down and four on the Iowa 14 yard line late in the third quarter. If they make the field goal or convert the fourth down in the red zone, this game could have been entirely different.

For Iowa, they did very well at getting a pass rush and stuffing the run. AJ Epenesa had a monster performance with 2.5 sacks. Linebacker Kristian Welch led the team with 11 tackles and added a sack. Fellow linebacker Joe Evans has 1.5 sacks of his own. Freshman running back Tyler Goodson led the way with 94 rushing yards while Nate Stanley threw for two touchdowns. This win made it the fifth straight season Iowa brought home the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy over Minnesota.

For the Golden Gophers, their regular season finale against Wisconsin now looms even larger. Not only will they be playing for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, but the Big 10 West crown will also be on the line. I think this program is still in very good shape with PJ Fleck at the helm. He has done a great job in his three years in Minneapolis and I think he will be able to build upon this season.

Texas

As a Longhorns fan, this season has been painful and this blog has essentially been my form of fan therapy. Expect no different from this section here.

After three consecutive uninspiring performances that resulted in two losses and a narrow victory over a bad Kansas team, it looked like Texas might have turned a corner after a win over Kansas State. That assumption was quickly proven wrong as the Longhorns fell 23-21 at Iowa State on Saturday. This loss, like many ones that Texas has faced recently, were not due to a disadvantage in terms of talent, but instead were due to poor coaching and lack of discipline. It is true that the Longhorns have been bit by the injury bug this season, but this game was definitely winnable as was their loss to TCU a few weeks ago.

The biggest issue this game for Texas actually was not their defense, as the defense did enough to win this game in my opinion. The Longhorns really struggled to develop their run game as they had just 54 rushing yards on 2.1 yards per attempt. Of their 26 rushing attempts, 16 of them went for three or fewer yards and they did not have a run play of over 10 yards. Texas really seemed like they had the run game figured out against Kansas State as Keaontay Ingram had a career high in rushing yards, but things fell apart this week as quarterback Sam Ehlinger led the team with 27 yards on 12 carries. The inability to run has now put all of the weight of the offense on the passing game. Ehlinger is a very good quarterback, but he is not good enough to carry the offense against good teams (and very few people are). The run game was a weakness for last year’s team and it has really not improved much in big games. It also does not help that the offensive line has been underwhelming at best. Out of 130 FBS teams, the Longhorns have the 105th best offensive line in terms of sacks allowed. With the talent level Texas has, that number should not be that low. While Ehlinger does hold on to the ball a bit longer than he should, he also is athletic enough to evade quite a few sacks.

I think many of these issues trace back to offensive coordinator Tim Beck and the predictability of play calling. Texas has been remarkably conservative in their play calling and is very unwilling to take real downfield shots. They also have been running the quarterback and risking injury far too much. These issues were prevalent in Beck’s previous jobs as offensive coordinator at Nebraska and Ohio State. I might be wrong but I have serious doubts that Ohio State and Nebraska fans are clamoring for a return. He was part of a staff that was fired at Nebraska and was not well received at the time of his departure with Ohio State. How he continues to get these offensive coordinator jobs is baffling. I will relent and say that Beck has developed a recruiting pipeline in Arizona for Texas that has helped them land Jake Smith from the class of 2019 and five star running back Bijan Robinson from the class of 2020, but I still think that Texas needs to rip off the band aid and get rid of Beck. I hope they would throw a ton of money at Joe Brady but I would be fine with a lot of people above Beck.

While Texas did fine defensively on Saturday, there are still some bigger issues. Texas’s pass defense has been embarrassingly bad this season. I will say that part of it is because of the fact that at least two starting defensive backs have been injured for a significant amount of times, it still is worse than it should be. Texas has the 126th best defense in the country in terms of opponent passing yards. For those of you counting at home, yes that means there are only four FBS programs that have allowed more passing yards than Texas this season. Now this might be dismissed by some by saying that there are injuries but Texas’s backups should still not be the fifth worst pass defense in the country. There might also be an argument that Texas plays a bit more aggressively on defense and is trying to generate big plays. Well that might be true but they are doing a poor job of it as they are 74th in the country in sacks and 95th in tackles for loss so clearly the aggressive play style is not working. While defensive coordinator Todd Orlando has caught some heat for the poor defensive performance and he deserves some of it, I would be willing to give him another year to see what he can do with a more experienced and hopefully healthier defense.

Now we get to head coach Tom Herman and the overall performance of the team. When Herman was hired after the 2016 season, I was very excited and I thought his tenure would definitely be a successful one. While he has had some great moments during his three years in Austin, there have been some low points as well that have definitely outshined the low points this year. Herman’s teams have done very well when it comes to gearing up for big games, but they have also had the issue of underperforming against lesser teams. This was an issue he had at Houston and has carried over at Texas. When Texas is favored against a Power Five opponent, they are 1-3 against the spread this season. The Longhorns have had a consistent problem when it comes to letting lesser opponents hang around. This issue consistently forces the Longhorns to have to perform in big moments on a regular basis which they often can not do.

Another issue I have started to see this season is a lack of discipline. Texas is the 26th most penalized team in college football and saw penalties cost them significantly against Iowa State. With just over two minutes left, Iowa State was attempting a 42 yard field goal that was far from a guaranteed make. Texas unfortunately gave Iowa State another opportunity as they jumped offsides and gave the Cyclones another first down. The Longhorns obviously lost this game and did not have the time to get another possession, which they would have if they did not jump offsides. Texas also had two pass interference penalties on Iowa State’s last drive. I think this issue boils down to poor coaching and Herman needs to find a solution to this. In general, I think Herman needs to give answers as to why Texas has struggled this season. Every press conference after a loss has led to Herman just saying that winning is hard. While winning can be hard, there are very few programs that are in a more advantageous position to succeed than Texas. Herman is being paid the big bucks to figure out how to win and be successful (he is a MENSA member after all). While I do not think he should be fired after this season, Texas needs to put some pressure on him.

Indiana

Indiana’s seemingly random success this season has been an interesting story to follow. The Hoosiers recently were ranked in the top 25 for the first time since 1994. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they fell short against Penn State when the light shined brightest.

Indiana’s biggest issue during this game was the fact that they twice had to settle for a field goal inside the 10 yard line. While one of those was with 13 seconds left, the Hoosiers would have won the game if they turned both of those into touchdowns, they would have won the game (obviously it would have changed the makeup of the game I just am talking about on sheer points added). Indiana also lost the turnover battle 2-1 and both of their turnovers were committed on their side of the field.

Despite the loss, I still think Indiana played pretty well considering Penn State is a top 10 team. The Hoosiers have had a very solid season and I hope Tom Allen has turned them into a solid program.

Wake Forest

Wake Forest had a very good start to this season, winning their first five games. While they lost to Louisville and Virginia Tech, the Demon Deacons looked like a team that could potentially give Clemson a run for their money. That first became unlikely when star receiver Sage Surratt went down with a season ending shoulder injury. Five minutes into the game, Wake Forest fell behind 14-0 and Clemson never looked back. Wake Forest eventually lost 52-3.

To start things off, the Demon Deacons were not good at all on third down, converting just 2/13 attempts. They also had many negative plays as Clemson had 10 tackles for loss. Of the 13 third downs Wake Forest faced, four of them were over 10 yards. The Demon Deacons also struggled defending the pass as Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence averaged over 10 yards per passing attempt and threw four touchdowns.

While losing 52-3 is never good, Clemson is a well oiled machine and one of if not the the most talented team in the country. I still think Wake Forest has a solid team and Dave Clawson has really done a good job with the team this season.

Navy

At 7-1, Navy rolled into their rivalry matchup against Notre Dame with many people saying an upset was in play (but not me though I would have to be stupid to think that). That buzz was silenced pretty quickly as Notre Dame held a 14-0 lead after the first quarter and a 38-3 lead at halftime before bringing home a 52-20 win.

The first thing I would point to as to why Navy could not keep things close was their slow start. The triple option offense works very well when the team running it is in the lead, and does not work very well when they are playing from behind. Notre Dame went on a five minute long drive that resulted in a touchdown to start the game. Navy started moving the ball well on their first drive, but fumbled the ball and Notre Dame immediately answered with a touchdown. Down 14-0, Navy no longer could use clock control to their advantage. Fumbling again on their second drive also did not help as Notre Dame again scored to go ahead 21-0. The Midshipmen were dead in the water at the point. Navy also failed to force a single turnover which is something else that can make the triple option offense sustainable. All in all, Navy just did not have the man power to take down Notre Dame after they could not get their offense going and that is perfectly reasonable for a team of Navy’s caliber going against a team like Notre Dame. While I really want to see Ken Niumatalolo take a Power Five job just to see the triple option run at a high level, (it should be required that at least one Power Five conference team run the triple option at all times just for entertainment sake also my vote goes to either Cal or Vanderbilt) I will acknowledge that he is a good fit for Navy and has done quite well there.

Some Random Thoughts

1. Pittsburgh kept their hopes in the ACC Coastal alive with a 34-27 win over North Carolina in overtime. This begs one of the toughest college football related questions I have ever thought of and that is is Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett good? I genuinely do not know. I know he did well against North Carolina though and he is definitely entertaining to watch.

2. Louisiana Tech lost their second game of the season and first in Conference USA play to Marshall 31-10. The Bulldogs were shut down by a very good Marshall defense and the Thundering Herd are now first place in the Conference USA East division. Louisiana Tech is still first in the West but has Southern Miss right on their tails.

3. Tua Tagovailoa’s hip injury against Mississippi State on Saturday was horrifying to see. Tagovailoa has been an elite player for Alabama these past two seasons and has been praised by many for being a great person off the field. Hopefully he recovers from this and can be successful in the NFL and I think he will. Many people were quick to blame Nick Saban for keeping him in the game, but I think that is overblown. It was the first half still and it was an SEC game. Saban said he wanted Tagovailoa to get practice running a two minute offense and there really would not have been a better time for him to do so. There is nobody at fault for this injury, and it is sadly just part of the game of football sometimes.

4. This week’s award for craziest decision that I would never have the guts to make was VMI deciding to open the game against Army with an onside kick. While it did work, VMI did lose the game 47-6. Army quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. had a big time performance with 208 rushing yards.

5. Kansas did pretty well in holding down Oklahoma State star running back Chuba Hubbard, but the Cowboys still came out on top. Oklahoma State receiver Dillon Stoner had a big day with 150 receiving yards.

6. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders will be out for the rest of the season with a thumb injury. This news is definitely disappointing as Sanders has great arm talent and athleticism and ha steadily been improving his field vision and decision making. I hope Sanders can recover from this and continue to improve for 2020.

7. Florida’s Jonathan Greenard had a big day with two sacks and five tackles for loss as Florida had a dominant defensive performance in their 23-6 win over Missouri. The Gators are 9-2 and will likely see themselves in a NY6 Bowl for the second straight season.

8. Missouri is unraveling a bit as they started off 5-1 and are now 5-5.

9. Northwestern won a matchup between a stoppable force and a movable object as their offense, which ranks worst in the FBS played against a UMass defense that ranked worst in the FBS. Northwestern came out on top with a 45-6 win in a game that I feel bad for you if you watched.

10. Adrian Martinez had a good game but it was not enough for Nebraska as they fell to Wisconsin 37-21. Wisconsin can still win the Big 10 West if they can beat Minnesota in the regular season finale.

11. Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor has now set an NCAA record for most rushing yards through the first three years of a career. Through three seasons, Taylor has 5,634 rushing yards and still has time to add to that total.

12. After a one year hiatus, Florida State is bowl eligible again after a 49-12 win over Alabama State. This season has been a turbulent one for the Seminoles but salvaging it with a bowl berth is definitely nice.

13. Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson had himself a big game as he threw for 384 yards on 33 attempts and four touchdowns in Michigan’s 44-10 win over rival Michigan State.

14. While he has done very well in East Lansing, I am it is time for Michigan State to move on from Mark Dantonio. The team has shown no improvement over the past few season and his refusal to make changes at coordinator positions is frustrating. I think his refusal to modernize is going to only get worse for the Spartans and it is time to just rip the band aid off and get rid of him.

15. Georgia finally gave up a rushing touchdown but they still won ugly 21-14 over Auburn to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

16. After a disappointing loss to Cal, Washington State got themselves back on track with a 49-22 win over Stanford, which is their fourth straight win over the Cardinal. Anthony Gordon had a big game with 520 passing yards and five touchdowns while Brandon Arconado led the way with 148 receiving yards. Max Borghi ran for 111 yards which for Washington State is similar to around 400 yards for most other teams with how rarely the Cougars run the ball. Stanford’s Davis Mills threw for 504 yards of his own.

17. After starting the season with nine straight losses, Rice finally won a game as they beat Middle Tennessee 31-28.

18. LSU was able to stay grounded after their win over Alabama and bring home a 58-37 win over Ole Miss. this game had some crazy stats for both teams. Joe Burrow threw for 489 yards and five touchdowns, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 172 yards, and Ja’Marr Chase had 227 receiving yards and three touchdowns. For Ole Miss, Elijah Moore had 143 receiving yards, Jerrion Ealy ran for 141 yards and the craziest stat of all, quarterback John Rhys Plumlee ran for 212 yards and four touchdowns. Plumlee might have some deficiencies throwing the ball but the guy is absolutely electric on the ground. He basically is taking the place of Khalil Tate as college football’s great dual threat quarterback that clearly only wants to throw it when absolutely necessary. I do not care that he has weaknesses through the air, Ole Miss needs to stick with him as the starter for entertainments sake.

19. Texas A&M is finally getting into a groove finding themselves which is good timing as the Aggies could potentially spoil seasons for the two playoff hopefuls they still have to play in LSU and Georgia.

20. Louisville is bowl eligible after going 2-10 last season. The coaching job Scott Satterfield has done in his first year with the Cardinals is absolutely remarkable. I can not wait to see what he does with them in the next few years.

21. Oregon State had an exciting 35-34 win over Arizona State as the Sun Devils missed on a two point conversion with less than two minutes left to play to help the Beavers secure the win. At 5-5, bowl eligibility will be on the line when Oregon State plays against Washington State on Saturday in a game that should be very interesting.

22. The West division title for the Mountain West conference will be one the line on Saturday night as Hawaii takes on San Diego State in Honolulu. With San Diego State’s power run game and Hawaii’s run and shoot offense, it is always interesting to watch these teams play and see how each teams defends an offensive philosophy that is nearly the polar opposite from their own.

23. After officially becoming bowl eligible with a 42-10 win over Idaho State, BYU has already accepted an invitation to play in the Hawaii Bowl. I get that they have a deal with the bowl game and it can be hard to be slotted into a bowl game when you do not play in a conference, but this is stupid that they basically are guaranteed to play in the Hawaii Bowl if they make a bowl game. At this point, what motivation do their players really have if they idea of fighting for a better bowl game is off the table. The fact that they would play in the same bowl game regardless of if they went 6-6 or 11-1 is so dumb. I guess the one redeeming quality to it is that this likely means that they will play rival Hawaii in the matchup.

24. Oregon and Utah have continued their march toward their Pac 12 Championship with each other as Oregon took down Arizona and Utah took down UCLA.

25. Kentucky’s Lynn Bowden needs to be talked about more. Bowden was Kentucky’s to preceiver before switching to quarterback after an injury to their starter and is doing well at quarterback. Bowden does not throw it often but he has been dicing up opponents on the ground. I’m Kentucky’s win over Vanderbilt on Saturday, Bowden completed 8/10 passes for 104 yards and ran for another 110 yards. Bowden should have the Paul Hornung Award all but wrapped up.

26. Boise State won 42-9 against New Mexico on Saturday night but the interesting story to me is that third string quarterback Jaylon Henderson who had to start due to injuries to the starter and backup, had a strong showing that led to him winning Mountain West player of the week. Henderson threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in the victory for the 20th ranked Broncos.

27. This week’s cool uniform award goes to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Tulane.

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