Very high polling in important local elections is taking place across India. This usually happens when there is an issue that is being debated, as has been the case in recent months. It is easy, therefore, to think the results are going to be a referendum on the Prime Minister and his policies, particularly demonetisation. A defeat in some of the larger states would then become his personal loss. Following this he would stand chastised and come under pressure to change his highly centralised style of leadership. Thinking this would likely be a mistake.

It is of course possible that the Bharatiya Janata Party may lose some of the crucial elections whose results are now just a few weeks away. For example in Punjab, where it has been ruling in a Jat Sikh-upper caste Hindu partnership with the Akali Dal for a decade. Or in Uttar Pradesh, where it faces a formidable alliance of the sort that it lost to in Bihar a little over a year ago. Either of these, and particularly a loss in UP, would hurt the BJP and affect its immediate agenda. The Rajya Sabha would remain ranged against the National Democratic Alliance and for some time media, particularly the English media, would turn negative.

However, none of these defeats, if they happen that is, will damage in the medium and long term the sterling reputation enjoyed by Narendra Modi. He remains the most credible politician we have, by a very long way. He retains his great charisma and with it his popularity among a much, much broader swathe of the population than votes for his party. All of the things his party is attractive for, its ideology of Hindutva, its reputation for sobriety, its cultural rootedness, its upper caste base, the benefits from all of these Modi can safely credit to his account. On the other hand, the assets he brings individually, those he owns personally, he transfers to his party in the way only charismatic (Jayalalithaa, Mamata and Mayawati come to mind) leaders can. People like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Rajiv Gandhi did not and could not do this.

These things Modi has earned because of several things: his honesty and the absence of family interests nibbling away at his reputation, his first-rate ability to communicate, his talent at reduction, and at making his opponents look weak and ineffective. All of these he continues to retain, even if one were to accept that his economic ideas are now looking eccentric. It is true that in some quarters his boasts of competence and execution and ‘governance’ are being questioned of late. However that is not really something he will be held to account for in the political sense for long. That has not been the tradition in these parts.

Neither Nehru nor Indira Gandhi delivered competent economic performance, or governance of any high order (the subcontinent being ungovernable in many ways). But they were returned to power with full majorities nonetheless, and repeatedly. Why? Because they held on to their personal assets of charisma, credibility and communication. There is no reason to believe this will be different for Modi. In fact, if anything, it could be argued that he is superior to them at that sort of thing.

He has earned political capital the hardest way possible. He fought a general election where he convinced the population that its problems were what he said they were. He made his ability to single-handedly produce change the most important issue. And he won because he got millions of Indians to buy into that idea. He continues doing that by putting himself out and assuring the country that he means well. Few leaders have the courage or the stamina to be on the campaign trail with such energy as he has shown. And one struggles to think of another individual who would be so willing to stake his reputation by making every election about himself. But that is what Modi does, again and again. This is why those who believe in him will continue to keep the faith. A defeat in UP will sting, but it will not be harmful beyond a point. Modi’s message must be countered effectively, and not his personality. The opposition has shown zero ability so far to do this. And so, because of him, the BJP will remain the dominant party in India for a long time. And those who do not like it or its policies must face up to that fact.