But is it a bigger deal as is being made out?

Today’s move by Farage sounds like a very important development but are we over stating it? Much of the coverage seems to be based on the widespread assumption that all the BP party vote will automatically go to the Tories.

This is of course nonsense because a quite large slice of BP support comes from former LAB voters who would never go near the Tories.

So the effect of Farage pulling candidate out in Conservative seats could boost Labour as well.

BP is not a political organisation which can be compared to other parties. It has no members and Farage is leader as long as he wants. It has inherited the UKIP characteristic of being very poor in first past the post elections with a tendency to be overstated in the polls

At GE2017 Farage’s then party chalked up 1.9% of the overall GB vote which was much smaller than most pollsters had recorded.

I feel sorry for many of the BP candidates who put themselves forward in good faith and now have been ditched.

Chart of Betfair exchange prices from betdata.io

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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