The Lay of the Land at the 98th Tour of Flanders

The crown jewel of the Flanders classics is finally here. Weeks of racing on the cobbles of Northern Europe have offered insights into who has the most in the tank right now, but on Sunday we get to see the big show, De Ronde van Vlaanderen. It is a 259 kilometer journey from Bruges to the finish line. The first 90 kilometers or so are relatively flat and the road does not meander much on its way to the first visit of finishing city Oudenaard, but then, the parcours turns hostile, winding sharply in a number of loops through East Flanders and greeting the riders with a constant barrage of steep, often cobbled climbs. The 2.2 kilometer, 4.2% average grade Oude Kwaremont (with a half kilometer at over 10%) must be ascended three times, twice with the Paterberg (roughly 380 meters, 13%) immediately following. The second ascent of this Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg double comes with only 15 km to go, after a battery of other climbs that includes the Koppenberg, Taaienberg, and Kruisberg. Any of the aforementioned bumps in the road could be a launching pad for a rider with the legs to fly solo on the way to a Monumental victory. Weather sometimes further complicates things in this race; the forecast for Sunday show clouds with a slight chance of rain at the moment. The wind will likely factor as well.

As the riders take on these grueling challenges, I’ll be tweeting live analysis of the race at the new @VeloHuman on Twitter. Be sure to follow!

The Riders to Watch

Last year’s winner Fabian Cancellara enters the race as a slight favorite among the bookmakers. Cancellara has shown strong legs in the early goings this season, but you might not know it from the results of the past few weeks in Belgium. Caught behind crashes in both E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, he has not been able to put his world-beating power on display at the very front of the race; he has, however, shown off strong form trying to recover. Meanwhile, his Milano-Sanremo sprint for 2nd against a very talented field shows a great deal of strength at the level of his game as well. Cancellara builds his season around the seven days between this and next Sunday, and it will be hard to match him on the road. He also has a two-time winner of this race in teammate Stijn Devolder, a rider capable of pulling for his team leader or launching attacks if necessary (don’t count out Devolder as a contender—he is only a few years removed from back-to-back victories and looks good this season).

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan occupied the next step on the podium of the 2013 Ronde. The Slovakian has not let up in 2014, winning E3 Harelbeke and taking 3rd in the less selective Gent-Wevelgem. I’ve been suggesting in past previews and post-race analyses that he may be focusing more seriously on his climbing and soloing abilities this year, possibly at the expense of his sprint. After this weekend, there won’t be any more guesswork on that front. Perhaps the biggest hurdle standing in the way of his bid for victory will be the distance; the one-day races Sagan has won in the recent past have been shorter contests, and in the seemingly interminable Monuments like Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, he has had trouble maintaining the level of energy that rival Cancellara seems to be able to muster. In short, it will be very difficult to match Spartacus in this grueling contest. However, this is a major goal of Peter Sagan’s season and he has another year of experience under his belt to help him in 2014. Knowing when to attempt the decisive attack and when to find a wheel is crucial in this race. I believe Sagan will also benefit from a larger group of contenders helping track down a late Cancellara solo move. His teammate Oscar Gatto is a very strong rider on these roads who is having a good early season to boot. He will be a valuable lieutenant against so many teams stacked with talent.

Tom Boonen missed the 2013 edition of this race (which he has won three times), but he is back and looking strong at the head of the Omega Pharma-Quick Step attack this year. He has been able to stay near the front of the races he has targetted this season, and victories in Qatar and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and a strong showing at Gent-Wevelgem are evidence of his still impressive finishing kick. His classics campaign has not been without its misfortunes, however; tragedy has struck his personal life, and he sustained a painful thumb injury at E3 Harelbeke. He is, with Cancellara and Sagan, in the top tier of bookmakers’ favorites for this race, but OPQS will have a host of options should Boonen not be up to the challenge. Teammate Niki Terpstra is on fire this spring, winning Dwars door Vlaanderen and coming in 2nd in E3 Harelbeke after showing strong legs at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and February’s Tour of Qatar (which he won). With form like this, he is a serious threat to go long. Zdenek Stybar is the team’s wild card. The winner of 2013’s Eneco Tour and 6th place finisher in Paris-Roubaix is not far removed from winning the 2013-2014 cyclocross world championship race, and he looked very capable on the climbs of Paris-Nice and the brutal Milano-Sanremo in March. Stybar has shown a remarkable ability to make it up and over the short, steep bumps in the road, and I think this skill will set him up nicely in the Ronde. Teammate Stijn Vandenbergh has also been very active this spring, while Guillaume van Keirsbulck has just won the Three Days of De Panne.

Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke occupies a role on the fringe on the top tier favorites, as the main challenger to the established trio of Cancellara, Sagan, and Boonen. He has been in the top 5 of all four Belgian races he has undertaken in 2014, showing plenty of power and a strong finish. He has been knocking on the door for a few years now, though he is yet to nab a win at this level. 2014 seems as good a year as any. In 2013, the 25-year-old Belgian stood on the podium of Paris-Roubaix, a position he earned by hanging with Cancellara himself (alone among all the other riders in that race); he clearly has a wealth of talent. Still, the Ronde offers some serious uphill challenges, and it is the one major Belgian classic race that Vanmarcke does not have a big result in as of yet. It will be interesting to see if he can up his game a notch to handle cobbled climb after cobbled climb. He will be supported by a deep squad that includes Lars Boom.

Jurgen Roelandts was the third man on the podium in 2013, and he returns to the Ronde in 2014 looking sharp early this year. He has spent much of his time on the road as Andre Greipel’s top lieutenant, but he has shown strong form when given the opportunity. In last week’s Gent-Wevelgem, he took up the reins for Lotto when Greipel went down in the final kilometers, and still managed a respectable 10th. Meanwhile, teammate Tony Gallopin, winner of the 2013 Clasica de San Sebastian, has put together several fine performances so far this year. A true all-rounder, he will hope to put pressure on his opponents on the race’s many inclines. With Roelandts and Gallopin at the helm, Lotto-Belisol is not a team to be underestimated. Team Sky is another dangerous squad with multiple versatile options. Ian Stannard will be sidelined for a while with a serious back injury, but Geraint Thomas was 3rd at E3 Harelbeke and on track for a podium finish in the recent Paris-Nice before crashing out of that race. He is riding at a very high level right now, and has the toughness to hold on when the other contenders start to fall off the pace. Meanwhile, teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen looked very strong in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and has continued to show form in support of his teammates in the run-up to De Ronde. His sprint is a known commodity, and he’s a danger man should he be at the front of the race as it nears its conclusion. Even Bradley Wiggins is here, filling in for the injured Stannard.

BMC’s Greg van Avermaet has notched three top 10s in this race, two in the past two years. He came so close to winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in early March, and has looked decent in the past few cobbled races. He certainly possesses the right array of skills, mixing capable climbing legs with a knack for going solo and a strong finish, but whether all of his combined strengths will shine bright enough to beat out the serious competition in this race is the big unknown. A top 10 is always within his reach; the win always seems just out of it. Perhaps 2014 is the year it all comes together? Meanwhile, BMC also sends Taylor Phinney, recovering from an ailment but maybe a factor with a late attack, and Thor Hushovd, should the bunch somehow stay intact to the line.

Gent-Wevelgem winner John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano will also hope he can hang on while riders try to blow up the race on the likes of the Koppenberg and Oude Kwaremont. However, I don’t think he’s purely reliant on a bunch sprint finish for victory. Degenkolb has been known to attack out of the bunch in tough races, and his form has looked sharper than ever this spring. With every race, Degenkolb seems to grow more confident in his ability to handle the difficult days. Unfortunately for him, his opponents will do everything in their power to avoid a situation in which they may be forced to face him in a sprint, meaning that Degenkolb will be fighting for his life on Sunday. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was 2nd at G-W, and he’ll be hoping he can keep pace this Sunday as well. He is a tough competitor. Among the toughest fastmen on the road will be Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, who finished 4th in 2013. These climbs could be a bit beyond his skillset, but the long day in the saddle and the relatively flat closing kilometers play in the favor of the of Milano-Sanremo winner. Teammate Luca Paolini has looked great in support of Kristoff so far this year, and he may look for opportunities to get up the road in Flanders.

IAM Cycling sends a pair of former Ronde runners-up in Sylvain Chavanel, who will look to strike from afar, and Heinrich Haussler, who will hope to outpace opponents at the line. Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato was runner-up just two years ago, and he has been in the Top 10 two more times in the past. He has not shown much this year but his 2013 GP Ouest France victory came as a surprise after a while off his best form, and this is a race he has a history in. Teammate Sacha Modolo will struggle mightily to hang on when attacks are launching left and right, but should it come to a mass gallop, he has been flying in the sprints this year.

The list of outsiders with a chance at victory from a small group or long attack also includes Daryl Impey and Jens Keukeleire of Orica-GreenEdge, Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld and Johan Vansummeren, and Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (4th in 2010).

Movistar’s JJ Lobato and Francisco Ventoso, Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Tinkoff-Saxo’s dangerous duo of Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati, Topsport Vlaanderen’s on-form up-and-comer Tom Van Asbroeck, Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, and NetApp’s Sam Bennett comprise a list of other outsiders looking for an opportunity to use their sprinting abilities should a larger group somehow remain intact at the finish.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan

Podium: Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen

Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, Jurgen Roelandts, John Degenkolb, Greg van Avermaet, Niki Terpstra

Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! And come back soon to check out previews of the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco and next week’s Paris-Roubaix, as well as post-race analysis of what promises to be a thrilling Tour of Flanders.

-Dane Cash

Photos by visitflanders.