It’s not exactly four straight tax freezes, but a budget promise is a budget promise and Mayor Matt Brown made one on the campaign trail.

He’ll clearly be in a tough fight to keep it intact during his first go-round as city hall boss — but that’s not the same as saying his pledge is already broken.

The 2015 draft city budget was unveiled Monday night, and it calls for a 2.9% tax increase as a starting point.

Brown promised while campaigning to keep tax hikes at the rate of inflation or lower. Inflation, by way of comparison, sits at 2.4%.

So, just cut 0.5% — roughly $2.5 million in spending — from the starting point and, voila, mayoral promise kept, right?

Not quite.

The proposed 2.9% hike doesn’t include almost-certain raises for London police — which could reasonably be expected to bring the hike well above 3% — or any extra investments.

As Coun. Stephen Turner put it, 2.9% will give London a “keep-the-lights-on budget.”

For Brown, he maintains that over his term Londoners will see average tax increases in line with inflation, even if it doesn’t happen in 2015.

“My target will be over the next four years, inflation or lower,” he said after the budget was unveiled to council’s strategic priorities and policy committee.

“I think it’s reasonable to expect we’re experiencing some pressures (in 2015) that are the result of decisions made by the previous council that kept the tax rate artificially low.”

The previous council, led by Mayor Joe Fontana, delivered an average annual tax hike of 1%, powered by a pair of controversially achieved tax freezes in 2011 and 2012. (Though significant, it wasn’t the four straight freezes Fontana had promised.)

Over the next three months, city council will wrestle the 2015 draft budget, including whether to approve staff-suggested projects that would add another point to the tax hike, likely bringing it beyond 4%.

Those investments, as detailed by city staff, include a London Convention Centre renovation and upgrades to the downtown library branch. Are they necessary in 2015? Brown isn’t yet certain.

“That’s the critical question that needs to be answered” during budget deliberations, he said.

The pressure won’t get any easier in the years ahead. City staff project tax hikes of 4.2%, 2.9% and 2.7% from 2016-18.

The 2.9% hike in the 2015 draft budget would add $72 to the tax bill of the owner of an average London home (average being a home assessed at $214,000).

Can it be pared down? Certainly, but it will likely take some difficult political decisions from council, and its 11 rookie members. Just one week after their inauguration, the training wheels are already off.

Patrick.maloney@sunmedia.ca?

Twitter.com/patatLFPress

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THE SKINNY

Unveiled Monday, the 2015 draft city budget calls for a 2.9% tax hike as a starting point

That would add $72 to the average London homeowner’s tax bill next year. “Average” being a home assessed at $214,000.

Politicians will also mull a handful of additional projects that would increase the tax hike to 3.9% (or $97 on the average tax bill).

The starting point also doesn’t include expected extra costs for police and firefighters.

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THE TIMELINE

Jan. 12: staff will present and detail budget for politicians

Jan. 22:public participation meeting

Jan. 29:politicians review operating budget

Feb. 5: politicians review capital budget

Feb. 19: public participation meeting

Feb. 26: council slated to approve budget

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Alongside the draft budget, the City released a video explaining the budget process:

http://www.london.ca/city-hall/budget-business/budget/Pages/budget-video.aspx?