Saskatchewan's outspoken premier Brad Wall could soon have a conservative pal at the first minister's table, if Manitoba Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister is able to maintain his momentum and oust the current premier in next week's election.

Pallister, a former Canadian Alliance member of Parliament, and his provincial Tories appear poised to do some serious electoral damage to a NDP government that has been in power in Manitoba for 16 years and has spent much of the last few years caught up in internal party battles.

In 2013, there was a huge public backlash against NDP Premier Greg Selinger for a surprise increase to the provincial sales tax, something he promised in the 2011 election not to touch.

Selinger saw such a dip in approval polls, five of his most senior cabinet ministers read the writing on the wall and rebelled against the unpopular premier. That sparked a nasty leadership election that Selinger only narrowly won in 2015.

Paul Thomas, a University of Manitoba professor emeritus of political science, said part of what makes the current Manitoba election so fascinating is that revolt and the fallout it sparked.

"The sort of rule of thumb in politics is sitting premiers are almost invincible," said Thomas.

The PCs took up the PST increase as a core cause. The provincial conservatives took the NDP to court over the tax hike — but failed to reverse the increase. Pallister's party has since made the surprise tax hike the election issue of 2016.

Vague promises, sharp attacks

Throughout the campaign, Pallister acted like a front-runner set on cruise control. He's been vague on specific promises of "a better Manitoba" and focused primarily on attacking the NDP's record: the infighting, the broken promise not to raise the PST, the fact that the province has the longest emergency room wait times in the country, the overwhelming number of indigenous kids in provincial care, and so on.

If Pallister wins, there could be big change in Manitoba, but possibly on the national stage as well.

Adding another conservative premier to the mix in Canada's provinces would mean Saskatchewan's outspoken premier could have another voice in his corner on issues like a national carbon tax.

Saskatchewan's premier recently stuck his neck out and said he wouldn't sign an agreement on carbon pricing, something that six other provinces either have adopted or committed to adopting, or, as is the case with Manitoba's NDP government, have announced their intention to adopt.

Pallister's Manitoba PC party has refused to provide a clear position on a carbon pricing, meaning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government could see further push-back as they try to move forward with a climate change framework.

Thomas said Pallister can't afford to be as ideologically right-leaning as Saskatchewan's Brad Wall.

"You don't make it that far and have enduring success [in Manitoba] by giving in to your ideological leanings so fully that you sort of antagonize a lot of Manitobans," the political scientist said.

A national priority Pallister has been incredibly clear on, even before the 2016 election campaign, has been having Manitoba join the New West Partnership.

New Democrat brand in trouble nationally

Selinger has refused to join the trade deal with every other western province, sparking heated debate both inside and outside of Manitoba.

NDP Leader Greg Selinger has dealt with a series of embarrassing moments over the past two years, including the rebellion of top cabinet ministers, following an increase to the provincial sales tax. (Chris Glover/CBC)

If Manitoba's possible blue wave flushes the NDP from power, it would be the latest in a string of blemishes for the NDP's brand across the country.

First, New Democrats ate a piece of humble pie in the 2015 federal election as they watched the Liberals sweep the nation. The Saskatchewan NDP was unable to gain traction with voters in its recent provincial election, resulting in Cam Broten stepping down as leader.

And then federal NDP voted to toss Tom Mulcair and rebuild.

Greg Selinger knows a thing or two about leadership votes. He's been through two.

The second came after that rebellion stunned political circles in Manitoba in the fall of 2014. Selinger clung to power with a narrow 33-vote margin on a second ballot. If the Manitoba NDP lose Tuesday, depending on how crushing, it could be the third leader the party loses in about two weeks.

"I'm not saying write off the NDP," said Thomas. "What I'm saying is this is tough times for the NDP as a brand across the country."

Liberal implosion in Manitoba

Manitoba Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari has failed to gain traction with voters after a series of stumbles and missteps. (CBC) While Selinger faces major hurdles heading into the election, Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari has also struggled.

At dissolution, the Liberals only held one seat in the Manitoba legislature. After the massive sweep for the federal Liberals in fall 2015 across the country, and in all but one Winnipeg riding, the provincial Liberals seemed poised to elevate themselves from the political wilderness to become a force to be reckoned with.

"They got an immediate surge from Trudeau's surprise October victory, and then they plateaued and then they've sunk," Thomas said. "How could they not translate the good fortune of the national party into greater success here at the provincial level?"

It was a bumpy road for the Manitoba Liberals as the leader struggled and the full slate of 57 candidates was reduced to 51.

A candidate resigned for misogynistic online comments, the party lost several other candidates on deadline day due to shoddy paperwork, the Leader's chief of staff quit and the list goes on and on.

The 2016 Manitoba election could spell the end for a 16-year dynasty NDP government. If it does, it'll lead to a major shakeup in provincial politics. Two parties, the NDP and Liberals, could soon be back to the drawing board, and leaving the PC party free to turn the ship in whichever way it wants.