Federal Liberals With Over Half the Vote

Convincing supermajority if election held today

TORONTO May 13th, 2016 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1517 Canadian voters, over half would vote Liberal if an election were held today (52%), while just less than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (29%). The NDP have just one tenth of the vote (11%), while few will vote Green (3%), Bloc Quebecois (4%) or any other party (1%). These results represent relative stability since last month (April 6, Liberals - 51%, Conservatives - 28%, NDP - 12%).

The Liberals lead or are tied everywhere but Alberta, and it is only in BC that the NDP clears a tenth of the vote. The Liberals are dominant in the Atlantic provinces (61%), while the Conservatives lag (28%). In Quebec, the Liberals are just as dominant (59%), while the Bloc (15%) and Conservatives (13%) strive for distant second place. In Ontario, the Liberals are less dominant, but still the majority party (54%), while the Conservatives muster 3-in-10 votes (30%). The Liberals (42%) and the Conservatives (44%) are tied in the prairies, while the Conservatives lead only in Alberta (52%), but not by much (Liberals - 42%). The Liberals (43%) lead by less in BC (Conservatives - 33%, NDP - 17%).

It should be noted that, of those who voted NDP in the recent election, fully 4-in-10 would vote Liberal today (40%), while a seventh of those who voted Conservative would as well (14%).

Dominant supermajority would result from election today

If the results shown here are projected to the House of Commons, the Liberals would take over three quarters of the seats (261), while the Conservatives would have to settle for 69. The NDP would hold just 7 seats, and the Greens would seat their leader.

Mulcair’s approvals up since losing party leadership

Prime Minister Trudeau has the approval of close to 6-in-10 (57%), and his net favourability rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +24. This is similar to his approvals last month. The Prime Minister draws the approval of one half of NDP supporters (48%) and even a tenth of Conservatives (12%). His favourability among Liberals is almost universal (91%)

Rona Ambrose has the approval of 3-in-10 (31%) and her net is a relatively neutral +5, but this is due to the high level of those who don’t know enough about her to have an opinion (42%). Ms. Ambrose has the approval of more than half her party members (57%) and is relatively well thought of by Liberals (23%) and even some New Democrats (16%).

Tom Mulcair has seen his approval jump from one third last month (32%) to more than that now (36%), and his net score has improved from -4 to +5. Mulcair has the approval of about two thirds of New Democrats (62%), while few disapprove of him (12%). He achieves some approval among Liberals (39%), and even among a quarter of Conservatives (23%).

One half see Trudeau as best PM

One half of Canadians see Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (47%), compared to about one quarter this proportion for either Ambrose (13%) or Mulcair (10%). Thus, both Mulcair and Trudeau closely match their party’s vote preference, but Ambrose significantly underperforms her party.

Satisfaction with election outcome remains high

In total, two thirds are satisfied with the outcome of the election (64%), and more than a third are “very satisfied” (36%). These findings haven’t changed since last month (64% and 36%, respectively).

“What we see here has clearly gone beyond a honeymoon. We may be looking at a long term love affair between the Prime Minister and the voters. His vote share and his approvals remain improbably high. In fact, the more interesting finding in this poll is that Tom Mulcair seems to have undergone a revitalization in his favourables since his dramatic decision to almost step down. Nonetheless, he is the one candidate who seriously outperforms his party right now, which is a worrisome signal for the NDP,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.