In a Conservative leadership contest mired in Brexit, only a few could say the unsayable

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It’s all about the Tory leadership, and (surprise, surprise) only three of the candidates to have declared are living in the real world. Matt Hancock, Rory Stewart and Sam Gyimah are saying the unsayable: no deal would be a catastrophe, and the EU will not renegotiate.

Hancock, the health secretary, couldn’t have been much plainer: “‘No deal’ is not a policy choice available to the next prime minister,” he said. Stewart, the international development secretary, was equally blunt:“Stop pretending you are going to get alternative arrangements agreed by Brussels ‘over the next few months’. Stop. You won’t. Admit it,” he said.

All the rest are busy telling Conservative members, 76% of whom favour a no-deal Brexit, that that’s precisely what they’re prepared to deliver if necessary. Among them, Andrea Leadsom promised it would be “managed”, something of an oxymoron.

Dominic Raab is so gung-ho about no deal that a “Stop Raab” campaign has been launched by Tory moderates, and Sajid Javid is also prepared to leave without a deal, ruling out a second referendum, general election or revoking article 50.

Moderates are alarmed: Amber Rudd warned candidates against backing no deal; Philip Hammond said backing no deal would mean losing a no-confidence vote; Jeremy Hunt sought the middle line, saying he would back no deal “with a heavy heart”.

UK manufacturers added their weight to the warnings, describing a no deal as “economic lunacy” following the news that British car production had plunged amid the “untold damage” of the chaos surrounding Britain’s exit date.

Top scientists warned of a “major blow” to national science if ministers could not secure access to a vast EU research programme, and Elton John said he was ashamed of Britain and was “a European, not a stupid, colonial, imperialist English idiot”.

After briefly attempting clarity on a second public vote, meanwhile, Labour appeared to backtrack somewhat, with Jeremy Corbyn saying a second referendum was “some way off” and that Labour still wanted to negotiate a better Brexit deal.

What next

Nothing has materially changed, so see last week’s “What next”.

Much could obviously depend on who becomes the the next Conservative leader and prime minister; my colleague Peter Walker has a useful look at the runners and riders – and their odds at the bookies.

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In the Guardian, Matthew d’Ancona bemoans what Brexit has done to the Tory party:

Tory members have drunk the Kool-Aid when it comes to Brexit: for them, it has ceased to be a geopolitical and commercial process and become a religion. Three-quarters of them favour a no-deal exit – far ahead of any other option. It is not just that they fear the Brexit party. They want to be the Brexit party. They long for the simplicity of Farage’s demagoguery, the uncomplicated fervour of his rallies. After three years of parliamentary drudgery, they crave the politics of spectacle, excitement and tub-thumping vindication … It is extraordinary to think that, not so very long ago, the Conservatives considered themselves – with statistics on their side – as the “natural party of government”. Now they more closely resemble a herd of lemmings, squeaking furiously about who should lead them to oblivion. How noisy the Tories have become, and how small.

And the historian David Olusoga says Britain cannot be reborn while it is lost in fantasies of the past:

If, on 31 October 2019, the fanatics and the Faragists win and we crash out of the EU, that moment, when the borders close, and the markets open, and the truth sinks in, will not be Britain’s “Independence Day”. A hard Brexit would be so damaging to the true interests of the UK that what might follow – if we are lucky – is a great unmasking, not just of the political fantasists and chancers who peddled the great Brexit swindle, but of the historical delusion that empowered them. The most extreme among the Brexiters are convinced they can ride the chaos and deploy the “shock doctrine” to remake the nation in their ideological image. But awoken from our dreamtimes by the smelling salts of economic reality, Britain might go the other way and begin the process that would see us start to decolonise our history and our self-image. Through such a process, Britain would, in effect, become the last country to leave the British empire. No matter what happens at Halloween, the dangers of England’s dreaming are surely now clear and manifest.

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Liverpool supporters celebrate their Champions League win: