THEY see themselves as Scotland’s most vigorous and effective defenders of the Union. Notably, their opponents do too. But as another election looms, the importance of the Orange Order in contemporary Scotland again risks being overblown.

Back in 2011 the Brethren oddly claimed credit for the SNP’s west of Scotland Holyrood breakthrough, a protest vote, they claimed, against noises from Labour councils regarding their sacred right to march. Again in 2014’s independence referendum some within Orangeism believed it was ‘the Lodge wot won it’.

But in a local election where Brexit, ‘Indyref2’, and a resurgent and robust Scottish Unionism will largely set the tone, elements within the Yes movement believe the Orange Order will mobilise its membership for an anti-Nationalist result.

Some well-publicised local overtures from Labour to the Order, tactical voting within the unfamiliar and complex STV system and the recent unexpected defeat of Nicola Sturgeon’s father in an Ayrshire by-election have raised claims of Orange influence amongst more excitable opponents. Truth is the Orange Order is not sophisticated enough to run an electoral campaign, its importance routinely overstated.

Certainly, geographic pockets remain where the Orange Order carries influence, Ayrshire or Falkirk villages with a sense of tradition and discipline around the local Lodge. And in some by-elections Labour has discretely called in Orange support for transport or leafleting.

But in Lanarkshire or Glasgow, the Orange influence is much diluted; neighbourhoods are more mixed in terms of religious demography and other dynamics are often more important. Recent attempts by the Orange Order to influence the election of candidates to Glasgow City Council in places like Govan and Dennistoun, local strongholds, have floundered.

STV may have shifted their ability to make a difference but not on any meaningful scale. Where it could have an impact is on the Tories renewed fortunes. Alienated by Thatcher and tactically supportive of the biggest Unionist party since 2007, many within the Orange family were comfortable voting Labour for several years. However the time when city council leaders could buy loyalty with parades pledges has passed. And while Ruth Davidson might be the new best thing to ‘stop the Nats’, the reputational risk to the Tories is probably too great for them to go a courting.

As individuals, Orangemen and women will likely turn out en masse on May 4. Just as many see SNP running councils as advancing the cause of independence, similarly Orange supporters can legitimately vote in defence of the Union. Correctly, they believe they have as much right to be part of the political process as anyone.

Perhaps those with most to lose are SNP supporters who see the frequency of Orange parades as evidence of alliances with council regimes. The local government map of Scotland will probably turn largely yellow, the number of parades won’t change. The expectation SNP councils will end Orangeism on Scotland’ streets is something it will want to manage.