Jan 3, 2017

After the Dec. 29 announcement that Russia and Turkey had reached an agreement on a nationwide cease-fire in Syria, the United Nations Security Council on Dec. 31 unanimously approved a resolution welcoming the new effort to help resolve the Syrian crisis. Such unanimous international support, together with the overall effective implementation of the cease-fire by the concerned parties on the ground since Dec. 30, raises suggestions that this initiative is different from previous failed peace efforts.

As Moscow and Ankara were busy preparing the ground for the implementation of the cease-fire deal, one important question is that of Iran’s role in the process. After all, Iran and Russia have been strong supporters of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, before the announcement of the cease-fire deal, there were meetings in Moscow on Dec. 20 between the foreign and defense ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran that resulted in an eight-point statement on how to jointly solve the Syrian conflict. Thus, does the cease-fire deal between Moscow and Ankara mean that Iran is being ignored and that a new framework for conflict resolution in Syria has been established? The short answer is a resolute "no."

The terms of the Security Council resolution are not in contradiction with what was agreed to in the trilateral Dec. 20 meeting, but in fact a continuation of the Moscow Declaration. Points such as guaranteeing humanitarian access to all disputed territories, the necessity of finding a political solution for the conflict, excluding the Islamic State and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) from the cease-fire and choosing Kazakhstan as the host country for the upcoming talks between the Syrian government and the opposition are among the most important similarities between the trilateral statement and the Security Council resolution.

Moreover, to better understand the dynamics at play, it is necessary to review the role Russia played in preparing the conditions for the cease-fire deal. In broad terms, it could be argued that the Dec. 20 meeting in Moscow was in fact not a trilateral mechanism between Russia, Iran and Turkey to find a consensual solution on Syria, but an attempt by Moscow to mediate between Tehran and Ankara and move them closer to each other. This is driven by how Moscow sees almost all of its goals in Syria as having been achieved now that eastern Aleppo has been returned to government control.

Indeed, Russia has been successful not only in preserving the security of its military bases in western Syria, but also in terms of strengthening its influence in the country and even extending its formal military presence, which guarantees its long-term access to the Mediterranean Sea. By standing with the Syrian army until full victory in the all-important battle for Aleppo, Moscow also projected an image of itself as a genuinely reliable ally. Russia was furthermore successful in portraying itself as one of the few great powers that still has the ability to conduct military operations in remote areas. Hence, since Russia has “won” the war, it now wants to win the peace.