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Those with existing illnesses who should avoid infection — chiefly those of all ages with high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease or active cancer — should isolate themselves for several months, knowing that they otherwise risk death. Those especially at risk are those who have three or more existing illnesses (almost half of all who died in Italy were so severely compromised) and those with two existing illnesses (another 25 per cent of all deaths). The average age of death in Italy was 80, with very few deaths under age 50 and vanishingly few under age 40, all of whom were males with serious existing illnesses.

Those who care about this at-risk population — friends and family members — should likewise exercise extreme caution, interacting with at-risks only at a distance and taking all measures needed to keep them safe. Given the alternative of death, all involved have every incentive to be self-disciplined and scrupulously conscientious.

This lock-down of the at-risk population not only saves the lives of the at-risk, it spares the hospitals from an inundation they cannot cope with, allowing them to avoid the triage that would otherwise become necessary. It also allows the healthies of all ages — those without existing illness — to work and play, frequenting bars and restaurants and attending schools and sporting events. Because these healthies won’t need to be vigilant in most of their daily activities, it will be easier for them to exercise discipline on necessary occasions. Most healthies will inevitably become infected — that is the predicted fate of 70 to 80 per cent or more of the entire population — but more safely so. The relatively few who will need hospital care will be able to get it, because those at risk are safely quarantined, freeing up the scant hospital capacity for the rest of the population.