Toronto’s mayoral election is a three-way dead heat between Olivia Chow, John Tory and Rob Ford, the latest poll suggests, though Ford has by far the least room for growth.

In a Forum Research survey conducted Monday, Chow had the support of 29 per cent of respondents, Tory 28 per cent, Ford 27 per cent, Karen Stintz 6 per cent, David Soknacki 5 per cent; 4 per cent said they didn’t know. The results are considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Forum poll is the best for Ford since March. It is starkly at odds with the last public poll, by Nanos two-and-a-half weeks prior, that found him 17 points behind Tory and 11 points behind Chow.

Ford’s support was unchanged Monday from the last two Forum polls: he had 26 per cent support in early July, 27 per cent in late June. He was closer to the lead this time — in a statistical tie — because Chow’s support dropped from 36 per cent in early July and 34 per cent in late June.

The Forum poll is the second consecutive poll that has suggested a Chow decline relative to her competitors. Until July, she had led comfortably in every poll for three months. Until this poll, she had not once been under 31 per cent in any Forum poll conducted since the election began in January.

Election Day is October 27, just over three months away. The Monday poll sampled 1,063 residents.

The poll suggests, again, that an even three-way vote split would present Ford’s best chance of winning the election despite his unpopularity.

Ford shows little ability to substantially improve his numbers. His approval rating was a dismal 33 per cent, by far the worst of the five candidates, and 59 per cent of respondents said he should resign, about the same as in previous polls.

Tory, the former Progressive Conservative leader, had the highest approval rating, 67 per cent. Chow, the former NDP MP, was second with 54 per cent. Soknacki, the former Scarborough councillor, had 48 per cent approval. Stintz, the current midtown councillor, had 44 per cent.

Soknacki continues to suffer from low name recognition: just 66 per cent said they had heard of him, a full 30 points lower than the number that said they had heard of Chow. Eighty per cent said they had heard of Stintz.

The poll suggests Ford is strong in Scarborough, among low-income voters, among voters with little education, and among people of Caribbean background, though the Caribbean sample was small. Chow is strong with younger, lower-income downtown voters and Tory with older, higher-income suburban voters.

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