Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, New Jersey, February 18. 2020 – Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg lead New Jersey Democrats in the nomination contest for the presidency. The most recent statewide survey of New Jersey adults, including those who are self-identified Democrats or lean Democratic, from the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll finds about a quarter of support for each candidate. Sanders attracts the support of 24 percent, with Bloomberg at 23 percent. Behind them is former Vice-President Joe Biden, with 16 percent support, former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg with 10 percent support, and trailing behind are Senators Elizabeth Warren (7%) and Amy Klobuchar (3%). Eleven percent remain undecided. Support for each candidate is virtually unchanged among those who are registered, or who say they intend to register before their party’s primary in June.

“It’s a clear distinction between the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic party. Sanders has captured the hearts and minds of Jersey progressives, much to the dismay of Warren, while Bloomberg is it for moderates, even though he has yet to appear on a debate stage and hasn’t competed in any primaries or caucuses to date,” said Krista Jenkins, Director of the FDU Poll and Professor of Politics and Government. “These numbers are likely to change as the contest progresses, but for now it’s clear who’s dominating in the Garden State.”

Sanders has a commanding lead among Millennials and Ys (18-34), with 44 percent supporting the Vermonter. A plurality of non-whites support Sanders (32%), as do those with household incomes below $75,000 (29%).

Bloomberg does best with older Democrats (55 and older) (29%), but so does Biden (25%). The former Mayor of neighboring New York City is the clear choice among those with incomes greater than $150,000 (41%), and also does well among those with incomes that are just shy of 150k and more than 75k (31%).

Gender differences are negligible, but it’s notable that significantly more women (10%) than men (4%) support Elizabeth Warren. And fewer women (20%) than men (29%) support Bernie Sanders.

“Sanders is doing about as well in New Jersey as what national polling averages are finding , but Bloomberg is performing better in the Garden State,” said Jenkins. “Some of that could be simple name recognition, as Democrats are more likely to know something about Bloomberg than are others nationally.”

Enthusiasm for voting in the Democratic primary is also running high. The average score on a ten-point scale that measures voter enthusiasm for participating in the June primary is an 8 overall.

Turning to hypothetical general election head-to-heads, in which all respondents were asked, the president loses to all of the top Democratic candidates. If the election were held today, he would lose by the widest margin to Michael Bloomberg, with a 24 percent gap between support for the president (31%) versus that for Bloomberg (55%). The gap is narrowed, and more closely approximates what Donald Trump lost to Hillary Clinton by in 2016, in head-to-heads with Biden (52%-34%; 18% point gap) and Sanders (52%-35%; 17% point gap). Other candidates do slightly worse than did Hillary Clinton in 2016, with a ten to thirteen percentage point gap between their support versus that for President Trump. Warren and Buttigieg both beat Trump by 13 percentage points, with Klobuchar besting the president by ten percentage points.

Similar numbers are found among those who are currently registered, or intend to register before the state’s primary (N = 715). Bloomberg beats Trump by 24 points (56% to 32%); Biden beats Trump by 18 points (53% to 35%); Sanders beats Trump by 17 points (53% to 36%); Warren beats Trump by 14 points (50% to 36%); Buttigieg beats Trump by 12 points (48% to 36%); and Klobuchar beats Trump by 11 points (47% to 36%).

“The president has, at this point, few defectors in the various hypothetical matchups. The problem for him is that New Jersey remains a largely Democratic state, with party identification very predictive of choices in this historic presidential election,” said Jenkins.

Garden State women are particularly sour on reelecting the president. Women give Trump no more than 30 percent support in any of the matchups. When compared with men, a gender chasm – rather than gap – is clear. Men are significantly more divided in their general election choices in all matchups except for Bloomberg. Half of all men support Bloomberg, as compared with 37 percent support for Trump.

The president does poorly among non-whites in the state. Across the board, he loses among minority voters by sizable double digits.

The region, however, is a largely insignificant indicator of support for either candidate. The president does better among southern New Jersey residents (40%) as compared with support for him in the north (31%) and central Jersey (34%) when pitted against Bernie Sanders. And the same is true when he is up against Michael Bloomberg, with 36 percent of south Jersey voters supporting the president, as compared with 26 percent for the president in north Jersey. However, in both cases where region showed significant differences, Sanders and Bloomberg remain favored.

Methodology

The survey was conducted by live callers on both landlines and cellular phones between February 12 through February 16, 2020 with a scientifically selected random sample of 805 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult currently available. The interview was conducted in English and included 321 adults reached on a landline phone and 484 adults reached on a cell phone, all acquired through random digit dialing. Of these 379 were self-identified registered Democrats and are the subject of a separate analysis concerning voter preferences in the 2020 New Jersey presidential primary.

The data were weighted to be representative of the non-institutionalized adult population of New Jersey. The weighting balanced sample demographics to target population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region and phone use. The sex, age, education, race/ethnicity and region parameters were derived from 2017 American Community Survey PUMS data. The phone use parameter was derived from estimates provided by the National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program.

Weighting was done in two stages. The first stage of weighting corrected for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each household and each respondent’s telephone usage patterns. This adjustment also accounts for the overlapping landline and cell sample frames and the relative sizes of each frame and each sample. This first stage weight was applied to the entire sample which included all adults.

The second stage of the weighting balanced sample demographics to match target population benchmarks. This weighting was accomplished using SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. Effects of Sample Design on Statistical Analysis

Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. We calculate the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called “design effect” or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from a disproportionate sample design and systematic non-response. The total sample design effect for this study is 1.36.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 801 New Jersey adults is +/-4 percentage points (including the design effect) at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus, if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46 and 54 percent (50 +/- 4) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample.

Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.

This telephone survey was fielded by Braun Research, Inc. with sample from Dynata.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

805 New Jersey Adults

Male 48% N = 382 (+/-5%)

Female 52% N = 423 (+/-5%)

18-34 27% N = 214 (+/-7%)

35-54 35% N = 285 (+/-6%)

55+ 26% N = 305 (+/-6%)

Democrat (with leaners) 51% N = 393 (+/-5%)

Independent 18% N = 139 (+/-8%)

Republican (with leaners) 31% N = 241 (+/-6%)

White 59% N = 472 (+/-4%)

Black 12% N = 99 (+/-10%)

Hispanic 19% N = 151(+/-8%)

Other 10% N = 79 (+/-11%)

HS or less 30% N = 239 (+/-6%)

Some college 31% N = 252 (+/-6%)

College 38% N = 309 (+/-6%)

Question wording and order:

LV1 Are you currently registered to vote at this address?

1 Yes [Ask PID1]

2 No [Ask LV2]

8 DK (vol) [Ask LV2]

9 Refused (vol) [Ask LV2]

LV2 Do you plan on registering in time to vote in the state’s primary elections in June?

1 Yes [Ask PID1]

2 No [Ask PID1]

8 DK (vol) [Ask PID1]

9 Refused (vol) [Ask PID1]

PID1 In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

1 Democrat

2 Republican

3 Independent  ASK PID2

4 Something Else/Other

8 Don’t know (VOL)

9 Refused (VOL)

PID2 Which way do you lean?

1 Democrat

2 Republican

3 Independent

4 Something Else/Other

8 Don’t know (VOL)

9 Refused (VOL)

NOTE TO PROGRAMMER: ASK REMAINDER OF LV SERIES IF PID1 = 1 OR (PID1 = 3 & PID2 = 1); OTHERWISE ASK US1

LV3 Please rate your chances of voting in June on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning you’ll definitely vote, and 1 meaning you definitely will not vote.

1-10

88 DK (vol)

99 Refused (vol)

LV4 Please tell me how enthusiastic you are to vote in June on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning you’re extremely enthused and 1 meaning you’re not at all enthused to vote.

1-10

88 DK (vol)

99 Refused (vol)

LV5 I know it’s early, but if the Democratic primary were held today, who would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER]?

1 Joseph Biden

2 Michael Bloomberg

3 Pete Buttigieg [BOOT-A-JEJ]

4 Tulsi Gabbard [GAB-ARD]

5 Amy Klobuchar [KLO-BA-SHAR]

6 Bernie Sanders

7 Tom Steyer [STI-ER]

8 Elizabeth Warren

US1 through NJ5 withheld for future release

NOTE TO PROGRAMMER: RANDOMIZE ORDER OF PRES SERIES, AND ROTATE ORDER OF RESPONSE CHOICES

PRES1. If the election for president were held today, and the two major party candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, who would you choose?

1 Trump

2 Sanders

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES2 What about Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden?

1 Trump

2 Biden

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES3 What about Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth Warren?

1 Trump

2 Warren

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES4 What about Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Michael Bloomberg?

1 Trump

2 Bloomberg

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES5 What about Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Pete Buttigeg [BOOT-A-JEJ]?

1 Trump

2 Buttigeg

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

PRES6 What about Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Amy Klobuchar?

1 Trump

2 Klobuchar

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)