London

WITH the United States running a huge deficit, the incomes of the “99 percent” stalled, the fiscal cliff approaching fast, the nation’s dependence on external financing from China acute, and Washington gridlock a recurrent political condition, this may seem like an odd moment to be bullish on America. But I am.

The main reason is the huge shift already underway in the politics of energy and oil. The change has been underappreciated. It may be summed up in a single sentence buried in the 166-page study [pdf] just published by the U.S. National Intelligence Council: “By 2020, the U.S. could emerge as a major energy exporter.”

That is just eight years away and, yes, you read that right, exporter of energy, not importer. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the United States imports around 8 million barrels of crude oil a day, so the predicted turnabout is dramatic. With those imports, notably those from the Middle East, go forms of political dependency and expediency that have long exacted a price on the United States.

Several developments lie behind this looming geostrategic shift. The first is the advent of shale oil and natural gas production made possible by new technologies. The second is the increase in oil production from deep water offshore operations. Between them, by somewhere between 2020 and 2030, these new sources are expected almost to double U.S. domestic oil production, currently running at between six and seven million barrels a day.