This year’s census will likely prompt a political showdown between longtime members of Congress in the nation’s smallest state.

An analysis based on Census Bureau population projections has Rhode Island losing its second congressional seat in 2022, one of 10 states that could lose representation in Congress. The projections show a tight margin for the last few congressional seats, according to an analysis from Election Data Services. The Ocean State stands 14,000 residents shy of the seat, or about 1 percent of its population.

Rhode Island would be the latest state to have at-large representation, which would force a decision for its two current House members: Democrats David Cicilline and Jim Langevin. The last time a state went at-large, in 1992, incumbent Montana Reps. Pat Williams and Ron Marlenee duked it out at the ballot box. Williams, a Democrat, won.

Both Cicilline and Langevin have been coy about their plans come 2022 — there’s an election this year after all — but some in the state said Cicilline may have the edge in a primary. Over the last several years, the former Providence mayor has taken a more prominent role in the House, frequently defending Democratic priorities in national media and becoming chairman of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee.

“It would be a competitive race, and it could go either way,” Democratic strategist Rob Horowitz told CQ Roll Call. “But Cicilline would be the favorite. He has far more visibility, fits in better with a far younger, and more liberal, primary electorate.”