The U.S. is experiencing a baby lull that looks set to last for years, a shift demographers say will likely ripple through the U.S. economy and have an impact on everything from maternity wards to federal social programs.

U.S. births have edged up modestly since 2013, a trend likely to continue when last year’s official federal figures are scheduled to come out in June. That has stemmed a sharp drop in child bearing that started with the onset of the recession in 2007.

But behind that sliver of good news are more-worrisome signs that the U.S. may not soon return to its pre-recession average of about two babies for every adult woman. Some demographers have pared their forecasts for future births because an expected post-recession baby boom has been smaller than anticipated.

The leveling-off in births is weighing on sales at children’s stores, prompting hospitals to rework their birth wards and putting pressure on builders of single-family homes, executives and economists say.

“We’re just in a new era nationally and even globally where people are having fewer children,” said Jennifer Olson, vice president of strategy and business development at Children’s Hospitals and Clinics of Minnesota. “It’s really reshaping our focus.”