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The simple fact is the region’s population is growing, and the resulting demand for housing is putting upward pressure on prices. Specifically, between 2011 and 2016, the combined Toronto, Hamilton and Oshawa Census Metropolitan Areas grew by almost 400,000 people between 2011 and 2016.

All these people must live somewhere, and without commensurate increases in housing supply, growing demand will exacerbate affordability problems.

So where will new housing come from?

There are really only two ways for Toronto to grow—it can either grow out, into the surrounding rural area, or grow up, with taller buildings and more density. The problem is government policies currently restrict both options.

Ford’s idea of permitting development in the Greenbelt would remove an obstacle to outward expansion, from the fringes of the 905 area. This would represent a resumption of the GTA’s traditional postwar development pattern, which lasted until the mid-2000s, when provincial policies such as the Greenbelt and the Places to Grow Act were introduced to curb homebuilding on the urban fringe.

With these limits on outward growth, the need for upward growth through more dense building options such as apartments and townhomes became even more important. But again, there’s evidence that governments—both local and provincial—are creating substantial barriers to this form of housing supply growth.

Specifically, for new homes in the GTA to get built, homebuilders and property developers first must obtain building permits from city hall. This process takes more than one-and-a-half years, on average, across the GTA, meaning significant delays before shovels can break ground. And the process is fraught with additional costs and uncertainty, with substantial local fees on new homebuilding.