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Among Dalton McGuinty’s achievements is a rather unusual one: he has the rare distinction of becoming chief of his party after finishing fourth on the first ballot of his winning leadership convention.

No one expected the mild-mannered MPP from Ottawa to win that 1996 Liberal contest — which observers assumed would go to Gerard Kennedy, the photogenic former food bank manager — but by the fifth ballott, Mr. McGuinty had prevailed.

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In some ways, the Ontario premier’s political career ever since has been marked by similarly low expectations, followed sooner or later by surprising success.

As opposition leader, Mr. McGuinty was a likeable, inoffensive gentleman off camera, who frequently turned into a wooden, awkward political performer when the TV lights turned on.

“He’s really matured as a politician,” said Nelson Wiseman, a Unviersity of Toronto political scientist. “When you look at this guy in 1999, it was like: ‘Could this guy ever become premier?’ It was a fluke he even became Liberal leader.”