Brussels no longer interested in negotiating with May, says former official

Theresa May’s “bold offer” to MPs ahead of a final vote on the Brexit deal consisted of a series of platitudes and the restatement of negotiating objectives that have already been rejected, EU officials said in response to the prime minister’s appeal to the Commons.

As Conservative MPs who have previously voted in favour of the withdrawal agreement turned on May over the speech, the response in Brussels was one of despair at what was viewed as the emptiness of the prime minister’s proposals.

Q&A What are Theresa May's 10 commitments in her 'new Brexit deal'? Show Hide 1 The government will seek to conclude alternative arrangements to replace the backstop by December 2020. 2 Should the backstop come into force, the government will ensure that Great Britain will stay aligned with Northern Ireland. 3 The negotiating objectives and final treaties for our future relationship with the EU will have to be approved by MPs. 4 A new workers’ rights bill that guarantees workers’ rights will be no less favourable than in the EU. 5 No change in the level of environmental protection. 6 The UK will seek as close to frictionless trade in goods with the EU as possible while outside the single market and ending free movement. 7 We will keep up to date with EU rules for goods and agri-food products that are relevant to checks at border protecting the thousands of jobs that depend on just-in-time supply chains. 8 The government will bring forward a customs compromise for MPs to decide on to break the deadlock. 9 There will be a vote for MPs on whether the deal should be subject to a referendum. 10 There will be a legal duty to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect this new deal.

Most significantly, the suggestion that the political declaration could be rewritten to emphasise the ability of the government to achieve something amounting to “frictionless trade” caused concern.

May appeared to suggest that the government’s policy was to seek a customs arrangement that delivers the same benefits as today along with the renewed ability to make independent trade deals.

The alternative, May said, was a compromise position with Labour in which the government negotiated a temporary customs union on goods only which would include a UK say in relevant EU trade policy and an ability to change the arrangement following a general election.

Play Video 1:34 Theresa May sums up her 'new' Brexit deal in 10 points – video

The EU would be highly unlikely to be able to commit to negotiating such a compromise deal in time for it to be in place when the UK exits the initial transition period after Brexit in December 2020, and could not commit to it, a source said.

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EU officials added that the restatement by the UK government of an objective rejected last year offered little evidence that future negotiations would be any smoother than the last two years of tortuous talks.

One official said of the claim that the political declaration could be rewritten to achieve frictionless trade outside the single market and customs union: “It is not going to happen”.

A second official added: “Getting as close as possible to frictionless trade was in Theresa May’s 2018 Lancaster House speech. What decisions have been made since then to make this a reality?”

Mujtaba Rahman, a former European commission official and head of Europe for the Eurasia Group risk consultancy, said: “The EU side is looking well beyond Theresa May – and have been for some time.

“Their central scenario is that a new leader will be crowned at the Tory conference. Their interest is in who that leader will be and what policy line they will support. The rest – including today’s speech – is just noise.”

An EU source noted that the prime minister had both promised to give remainer MPs the chance to vote in favour of a second referendum while warning Brexiters that Brexit would be imperilled if they did not vote in favour of the government. “You get both sides voting against at that rate,” the source added.

In Dublin, the Irish government welcomed May’s renewed commitment to uphold the deal struck with the EU in December 2017 to ensure no visible border in Ireland.

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Her promise to find legally binding “alternative arrangements” for the Irish border by the end of 2020 to obviate the need for the backstop was seen as welcome political rhetoric in Ireland “if it helps get the deal over the line”.

Neale Richmond, the government party Brexit spokesman in the Irish senate, said: “We welcome any measures that can see that brought through Westminster as we’ve agreed to bring it through the European structures.”

Hours before May’s speech, the Irish deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney had warned the cabinet in Dublin that a no-deal Brexit was more likely than ever before.

The reality is that it is highly unlikely the UK government will come up with an alternative given that the backstop was created to meet the challenges created by May’s voluntary red lines on the single market and customs union.

Lisa Chambers, opposition Brexit spokeswoman, pointed out that people had been trying to find alternatives for the last two years and had been unable to. “What is the likelihood of alternative arrangements miraculously appearing before the end of 2020?

“If they existed, you would think they would already be on the table,” she said.

• This article was amended on 22 May 2019 because an earlier version misspelled Simon Coveney’s last name as Coventry. This has been corrected.