Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake is in trouble from all sides. With a dismal approval rating of 18 percent, he faces a primary challenge from former state Sen. Kelli Ward. At the federal level, President Trump torched Flake for being weak on borders, crime, and being a “non-factor” in the Senate. The president also called him toxic. In July, the Arizona senator’s vulnerabilities were highlighted by FiveThirtyEight, where the publication said it might not be a bad investment for Democrats to find someone to run against Flake since the state is shifting left, he’s never been popular, and he barely won in 2012.

Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate. He's toxic! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 17, 2017

Roll Call has also noted Flake’s vulnerabilities. Now, a poll from HighGround shows Ward with a 14-point (42/28) lead over Flake. Yet, the polling firm also noted that anything can happen, given the volatile nature of Arizona politics, noting that former Gov. Jan Bewer had been able to erase such deficits in shorter periods of time:

A statewide Arizona survey of 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows Republican incumbent Senator Jeff Flake fourteen points behind his primary Republican opponent Kelli Ward and eight points behind prospective Democratic opponent U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ-9). Q. If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward? 28.2% Jeff Flake 42.5% Kelli Ward 5.1% Some other candidate 24.2% Don’t know, Refused Q. If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema? 32.5% Jeff Flake 40.5% Kyrsten Sinema 27.0% Don’t know, Refused The Republican Primary Election sample was of 273 high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters and has a margin of error of ±5.93%. The General Election sample of 400 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.88%. While Election Day may still be more than a year away, Senator Jeff Flake’s campaign has a lot of work to do to persuade Republican primary voters that his form of principled Republican conservatism can trump the nativist populism that is fueling Republican voters’ antipathy towards Washington insiders.These same Republicans still give the President a 74% approval rating in Arizona,” said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, which conducted the poll. […] The data clearly shows that a contentious primary fight would certainly strengthen the chances of the Democrats to pick up the seat in November of next year. There is an opportunity for Congresswoman Sinema to take advantage of the uncertainty on the Republican side by jumping into the Senate race,” Coughlin remarked. “The question for the General Election comes down to if Congresswoman Sinema will be able to define herself first to an electorate that is largely unfamiliar with her, or if Republican third-party groups can define her in ways unacceptable to Arizona’s General Electorate.” The survey showed that Sinema enjoys a 51% approval rating among voters in her Congressional district which is largely within the cities of Phoenix and Tempe, which are more progressive, urban areas of the State. Although a 14-point margin is a sizeable gap for Senator Flake, Arizona is known for its volatility when it comes to statewide races. Politicos such as Governors Fife Symington and Jan Brewer have been able to successfully rally from greater margins in shorter periods of time.

I know, look at the sample size. It’s only 273 for the GOP primary. Usually 350 is needed for an accurate gauge of a congressional race, 600 for statewide, and at least 1,000 for a nationwide poll. Yet, National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar noted the methodology is sound. We do have a long way to go—and it seems Mr. Flake is deep in the well right now. He’s not isolated, however. The Senate Leadership Fund is already hitting Ward for her remarks about chemtrails a year ago.

Looks like the methodology is sound even if subsample a little small. Live caller, likely voters. Co-sponsorship w AZ TV networks — Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) August 22, 2017