Make no bones about it, the surf in Hawaii has been abysmal this summer.

With the peak months of the season ahead, and a good swell to close out May, there was optimism that things would eventually turn on through the summer. The improvement never eventuated, and instead, the production from the Southern Hemisphere only worsened. The first half of June struggled to get above waist high. There was an attempt to bounce back some in the second half of the month with a series of fun size pulses (standout exposures chest-head high and occasionally overhead during the peak days). Overall, June still came in below the seasonal average.



The statistically largest month of waves is July, so there was viable reason to remain positive looking ahead. The positivity was unfounded, however, as July and August-to-date have been largely dreadful months for waves along Hawaii’s southerly exposed shores. Surf running waist high or less has been the norm, with only a handful of random days getting up to chest or even shoulder high at the best summer spots. By the end of July, we were muttering, “this has to be one of the worst summers for Hawaii.” By now those rumbles have escalated to a roar, and in place of ‘one of’ the chant calls for ‘the worst’.



It is of note that a South swell due on the last day of August and to kick off September will finally deliver waves up to head high+. Looking further ahead, September and even October traditionally see a decent amount of storm/swell activity in the South Pacific, and the longer range climate models are in decent agreement the situation will improve. That wouldn’t take much, but with the way the summer has gone to-date we look on those projections with a healthy amount of skepticism. Regardless of an improved start to fall, though, the damage is already done for the meteorological summer.





"Luckily for me I haven't been home much this summer, but from what I've seen it's been the worst summer since I've been around... possibly the worst summer ever." - Seth Moniz

Before delving into the specifics that hampered the Hawaiian summer, it’s important to understand what makes the islands tick this time of year. Look over a map of the Pacific Basin and it is clear the land of Aloha sits smack-dab in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, open to receive swell from all directions.The North Pacific winter regularly brings the strongest swells of the year and, as a result, it is the northerly exposures of the islands that garner most of the fame. Stop three passersby’s and ask if they’ve heard of Banzai Pipeline and they’ll all likely answer ‘Yes!’ with resounding assurance. Ala Moana Bowls, arguably the jewel of the South Shore, will likely fail to carry the same name recognition.There are numerous differences between the two lauded chunks of reef, with several of the most important disparities in regards to surf a product of their respective swell sources. The storm track over the North Pacific is wide-open and brings storms close, if not at times into, the islands. Closer lows lessen chances for swell decay, and bring consistently larger surf to the northerly exposures of Hawaii. Ala Moana Bowls and the other southerly exposures depend on the South Pacific for surf. Despite being ripe with storm activity, there are two major reasons the South Pacific fails to deliver the same size and regularity: distance and obstacles.The first issue is easily grasped when looking at Hawaii’s location. Located at roughly 20 degrees north, depending on Island, it is much closer to the storms of the North than South Pacific. Issue number two comes in spite of what appears to be wide-open exposure to incoming swells from the Southern Hemisphere. Upon further investigation, it is clear there are a number of large obstacles in the way of incoming swell trains; the hundreds of islands clustered around Fiji and Tahiti/French Polynesia, and we’d be remiss not to mention New Zealand. All of these features shadow Hawaii from incoming swells; mostly stripping away energy like a cheese grater, but at times as efficiently as the moon blocks light from the sun if you’re in the path of totality during a solar eclipse.The obstructions ultimately leave a fairly narrow window for unbarred swell originating from the Southwest Pacific between the SSW 200° to South 170° directions. Even though this segment of the Pacific usually entertains vigorous storm activity every SPAC winter, there are still a couple factors that limit swell potential. There is the aforementioned distance, roughly 3000-5000+ nautical miles, these swells need to travel leading to swell decay. Further, the storms are usually tracking eastward and better aimed at the Americas, sending the bulk of the energy east while only a portion of the energy heads northward to Hawaii.But what about the southeast Pacific? Generally, once a storm tracks east of Tahiti, or east of 170°, it usually falls out of play for Hawaii. Not only is the storm tracking away at that point, but any swell that may spawn from the backside of the storm will need to filter through the many islands of French Polynesia.In a fairly cruel twist of fate, the Southwest Pacific has been shut down. The gates were partially opened for Spring Break and the doors locked shut for the Hawaiian summer. As you may have read numerous times in our seasonal forecast updates over the past months, high pressure has been dominating the Southwest Pacific, extending from New Zealand eastward to the south of French Polynesia and closing the door on Hawaii’s primary summer swell source.The storm track has been generally split around the high; the subtropical jet escorting cut-off lows from the north of New Zealand quickly down-and-away from the islands and to the south of French Polynesia, while more expansive and zonal lows moved along the polar jet across the deep South Pacific near Antarctica. Neither of these scenarios are good for Hawaiian swell-making. The cut-off lows often have an abbreviated fetch, with the unfavorable track adding insult to injury. The polar lows over the deep South Pacific are just like they sound, far away. Not to mention, their zonal nature aims any swell more east than north. At this juncture there is no clear, smoking gun for the main driving force behind such robust high pressure resiliently camping out over the Southwest Pacific. Regardless, its presence has led to the worst Hawaiian summer we can remember.Note – if you happen to be reading along from Tahiti, areas northward from Pt. Conception, much of LA (especially the South Bay), and San Diego…. This is why your summer has been short in the luster department.In an ideal world for Hawaii summer swells, we’d rather see high pressure centered further west and south, over New Zealand or the Tasman Sea. This opens the door for storms to develop over the Southwest Pacific, at times stalling or even having a favorable northward component to their track. Further, strong high pressure interacting with the low from this location helps drive stronger winds within a more northerly aimed fetch. Combining those ingredients leads to larger Southern Hemisphere swell for Hawaii. Will there be any of this in the balance of Hawaii’s SPAC swell season? Stay tuned for the Pacific Fall Outlook, as we take a closer look at the surf climatology for Fall across Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast, and at what this year might offer.