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Whatever the two party leaders may have pledged, moreover, they will have to enforce it upon every one of their members: if even one were to defect, on any matter of confidence, it would be enough to bring the government down. That gives individual members a lot of power — and people with power tend to want to use it, or even abuse it.

The point is, in a legislature this evenly divided, nothing is certain. Circumstances can change. People can die, or resign, or cross the floor. Even assuming it is not aborted at the outset by the Speaker’s Paradox, the likelihood of any government lasting the full four years — or even two — is vanishingly small. In which case …

The next election campaign has already begun. You may not be able to escape defeat. But you can ensure you are defeated on your terms. Make this, therefore, a Throne Speech for the ages. It is your last, and best, chance to make your case to the public as premier. Use it.

Do not overdo it: it must look like a credible program of government, not a deathbed conversion or series of bribes. The point is not to avoid defeat, but to turn it to your advantage. If, that is, the opposition parties are determined to vote against it, make it as uncomfortable for them as possible. Make it seem as if it is they, and not you, who are lusting for power. While you are working hard on the people’s business, they are consumed with political games. That sort of thing. Finally …

Don’t go anywhere. If the situation is as unstable as we think it is, the party will need to be ready to contest an election at any moment. It cannot afford a divisive, debilitating leadership race, or the months of breathing room it would allow the NDP-Green alliance to consolidate its grip on power. You remain the party’s best electoral asset, but more than that, the party needs continuity and experience in the leader’s office, in the political and parliamentary wrangling to come. The time to go is after a clear victory or defeat, not while both are in the balance.

Good luck. Our invoice is attached.

Sincerely,

Nick Scratch,

Director

MM&S