The cost of renting a home in Vancouver is on track to spike a staggering 20 per cent over a single year, according to a University of British Columbia economist.

Tom Davidoff of the Sauder School of Business came up with the grim forecast by monitoring online rental listings, but said the findings should be taken with a grain of salt.

“It’s my own coding of online listings, it’s only about five months of data,” Davidoff said. “But looking at online rental listings that I’ve seen I estimate that if the trend continues, rent from March of 2016 to 2017 would go up 20 per cent on average.”

Despite the caveats, the findings are cause for concern in Vancouver, where many already struggle to find affordable housing.

“If you’re a homeowner or a landlord, it’s all to the good. If you’re a renter, it’s quite distressing,” Davidoff said, calling the predicted spike in rent “very uncomfortable for people already spending a large fraction of their resources on their rent.”

Data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation suggests that, historically, rents in Vancouver haven’t grown as much as they have in comparable cities, Davidoff added.

In that respect, the economist said it’s not surprising to see rents catching up – but the speed of the expected increase is still a potentially serious problem, particularly for young people and the poor.

Davidoff believes the increase could be alleviated by adding more housing supply in the city, with a focus on apartment buildings and townhomes.

“We don’t build enough housing, period, and that’s largely because of zoning where we require almost everywhere in Vancouver, and certainly in the suburbs, that what gets built is single-family homes,” he said.

“We have got to change zoning, and I think leadership for that has got to come from the province. If they could rein in municipal zoning that bans multi-family housing, I think that would be a fantastic step toward affordability.”

Earlier this week, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson announced the city is adding 400 affordable new homes over the next two years, noting the vacancy rate has steadily remained below one per cent.

Davidoff said while Vancouver is set to see a record pace of home construction, it's still not enough to significantly help affordability.

With a report from CTV Vancouver’s Sarah MacDonald