“Tobias Harris 2.0”

“Skinner version of Paul Millsap”

“Why didn't we just take Monk or Issac?!”

These were my mentions on draft night. For the second consecutive year Celtics fans built up their hopes in anticipation for a star and ended up getting a young prospect they knew little about. Somewhere along the road, not very many considered Jayson Tatum a real target. Many considered Markelle Fultz to be the runaway best prospect in the draft, so much so that even thinking about anyone else seemed like an afterthought. But three months later, the Celtics are now not only adjusting to the new highly touted prospect but are also bracing for a completely new team. In come two young superstars in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, and out go backbones of last year’s team such as Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and the beloved 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. The change signified two very important things: First, the Celtics made it a priority to attain top-end talent and were willing to spend on guys they felt could be transcendent. Second, the Celtics really believe in their two young wings, specifically Jayson Tatum, for whom they have now opened legitimate rotation minutes.

Tatum became a bit of polarizing player throughout the draft process. While some were in awe of his advanced footwork, shot-making ability, and all-around offensive game, others only saw a guy who loved to take long two-point jumpers and wouldn’t fit today’s NBA. Armed with a strong coaching staff, the Celtics saw the tools to create a fantastic offensive player with the length to become a versatile defender. After a strong summer league filled with Dirk-style fadeaways, crossovers, and big-time dunks, the mood around Tatum has shifted more towards cautious optimism. The flashes of a superstar were apparent, but so were the warts that detractors continue to cling to. Overall, this is the analysis you expect from a top prospect, and for better or worse having low expectations for rookies is probably the smartest thing to do.

But this isn’t just a normal rookie coming into a normal lottery-team situation. In fact, the combination of his potential role, his overall skill set, and the team’s upside all point to one thing regarding Tatum:

He will be your Rookie of the Year.

What can Tatum bring to the team today?

Tatum’s ability right now is best explained by the man to whom many have already linked him:

“He looks like an older version of me, when I started doing the step-back and stuff... When I’m watching him, he looks like a mature version of my game, like sixth, seventh, eighth year. He sees the defense. He knows what’s going to happen before it happens. He understands his position, footwork, his step-back (jumper) is there. His offensive repertoire seems complete. The sky is the limit for that kid.” -Paul Pierce on CSNNE

Enough can’t be said about how polished an offense game Tatum has and how rare that is for a kid who hasn’t celebrated his 20th birthday. The engine that makes Tatum’s offensive game go lies in his footwork.

Tatum’s ability to get separation to take shots or get by defenders despite average athleticism allows him to dictate the defenses and take advantages of angles. At 6’8” and with a 6’11” wingspan, Tatum not only uses his length to get his shots over people but also as a real tool to finish at the rim, which he demonstrated during his week at summer league.

The questions regarding Tatum are strikingly similar to the ones that hover around Irving. Both are products of environments that asked them to be one-on-one creators for themselves. The question around Irving is whether he can diversify his offensive game enough to make a real impact on Boston’s win-loss record, while Tatum’s critics wonder whether his many attempts from midrange indicate that his offensive role will be limited to an inefficient way of scoring. Like Irving, Tatum’s game has an altered perception due to his college basketball environment. In Duke, Tatum primarily played with with Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard as his ball handlers. Though both were talented in their own right, neither was fit to run an offense, and Tatum’s opportunities either came from spot-ups, isolation, or transition opportunities in that order. Underutilization is common in college, but in Tatum’s situation it omitted a huge part of his game that will be his bread and butter at the NBA level, the pick and roll. Not only did Tatum show real potential as a roller, but he’s looked strong as a ball handler in those situation and makes impressive reads when he has the ball in his hands.

When he gets the ball as a roll man he’s almost unguardable due to his potential to either roll, pop, or attack a mismatch.

That his offensive skill is so polished at this stage of the game really lends credence to the belief that Tatum can thrive in these various situations. When playing against against second units the ability to attack mismatches could be a key part of Boston’s scoring when Irving, Hayward, and Horford are resting.

Tatum could also excel through post-up possessions. Despite the NBA’s transition away from post scorers, the post-up has proven to be a great set if done in mismatch situations. In college, Tatum averaged 1.3 ppp out of the post-up and was in the 99th percentile in those opportunities. Because of Tatum’s length and scoring ability, he can very easily become a threat if switched onto a smaller guard. That chaos could lead to open shooters, cutters, or simply easy points if the defense tests its luck.

Tatum will face more of a challenge on the defensive end. Similar to Jaylen Brown last year, Tatum’s defense started slow, but by the end of the season he knew where to be and looked like someone who could at the very least hold his own. The cons for him are the normal things you expect to find in a prospect who isn’t coming into the league as a defender: he needs to get stronger, could focus more, and could play with more intensity. All of those things matter, but then you see plays like this:

And it’s clear that as long as Tatum has the desire, he’ll be just fine on the defensive end.

Why should Jayson Tatum be your pick for ROY?

Tatum’s rookie-of-the-year campaign really rests on three important factors. First, he’s super polished, and his offensive game is not only his biggest strength but arguably the biggest weapon on the second unit. I put out a poll and asked who the Celtics’ best scorer is outside of the new big three, and the results were quite telling:

Who's the Celtics best scorer outside of Irving, Hayward, and Horford? — A.K ⚖️ (@Kungu_NBA) September 15, 2017

Despite his age and assumed position on the second unit, he could become Boston’s best offensive option outside of the big three.

With that in mind, the second reason he’ll win the ROY is that the team will need him to play by necessity. With Jae Crowder in the lineup, Tatum could at the most play around 10-14 minutes with all the other wings playing around 30 or more minutes. Without Crowder taking up those 30 minutes and all the other wings set to play big minutes, a pretty good chunk of those minutes will go to Tatum, enough to at least get him in the 20 mpg range.

And finally, the last point that will put him over the top is the team’s overall success. Boston may not win 53 games again because of all the new bodies, but their jump in top-end talent will undoubtedly make them a top-3 playoff team. That type of success in Tatum’s first year, combined with his role and Vine-worthy offensive game is a strong combination for a ROY bid.

The style reminiscent of Paul Pierce, the larger role, and the overall talent will quickly make Tatum a fan favorite in Boston. That said, It’s very rare to see a rookie automatically take the league by storm, and I am by no means promising such a transition for Tatum. But one thing Danny Ainge touched on during the introduction of Irving and Hayward is how this new-look Celtics team is built to allow other players to play their roles. In a nutshell, he was referring to Irving, Hayward, and Horford’s ability to run the offense or play off ball. The three of them all have the creativity to run the offense through them, and most likely all three will be the primary creators for the team. Thus, the other rotation players can simply focus on playing to their strengths instead of trying to fill roles they aren’t equipped to handle. For example, Jaylen Brown won’t be expected to do anything except hit spot-up threes and defend. Aron Baynes will be asked to rebound, defend in the post, and roll hard to the rim. Tatum will be expected to serve as one of the primary scoring threats of the second unit without the pressure of having to close games or hit clutch baskets at the end of the game. Tatum won’t be the face of the franchise like Lonzo Ball or Dennis Smith, but winning and getting buckets have always helped in the pursuit of individual awards, and he’ll be in line to do just that.