The first phase of the three-phase Maharashtra opinion poll by Zee 24 Taas Marathi channel has shown that the BJP is likely to emerge as the biggest party, followed surprisingly by the Congress and then the Shiv Sena. The NCP is at a distant fourth and the MNS way below, with the indication that Raj Thackeray's political experiment may be over.

The survey by Taleem Research Foundation questioned 3,584 voters in Mumbai, Pune, Aurangabad , Nagpur and Kolhapur. The second phase of the survey will be held closer to the election date and the third phase will be an exit poll.

What is the likely breakup of seats?The BJP is expected to get 90 seats, followed closely by the Congress, with 72, and the Shiv Sena with 61. The NCP is projected to win 38 seats. It could mean that when an alliance breaks, the voters back the stronger party in the alliance, which has a national clout. Though Shiv Sena claims it is still stronger than the BJP in the state, the Narendra Modi charisma will take the party through as Uddhav Thackeray cannot match the Modi-pull as of now.

How will the Modi factor play out?Though it was believed that the Modi pull is thinning out, there are indications that the PM's charisma still plays out in Maharashtra. About 43.4 per cent of those polled said that the leadership of Modi is an influencing factor. This is a bit surprising since the BJP does not have a strong chief ministerial candidate. The traditional voters of the right-wing alliance seem to be deciding to go with the BJP rather than waste their votes by backing the Sena in a four-cornered contest.

How is the Congress pulling ahead of the Sena?Fifty per cent of those surveyed were happy with the Congress-NCP rule. In such a situation, the Congress should have finished on top but price rise rankled 74.6 per cent of the voters surveyed, thus cancelling out some of that lead, making the Congress the second party. While 23.4 % will vote for the BJP, 19.1% preferred the Congress and 17.9% the Shiv Sena.

What do voters think of post-poll scenario?A quarter of the voters said it would be a hung assembly while others said a new alliance is likely to emerge. This could also mean that voters are reconciled to a mish-mash alliance of convenience after the election.