ANALYSIS — More than 14 months ago, I wrote a column in this space suggesting that the 2020 presidential contest was a toss-up, but one that tilted toward the Democrats. I offered caveats about the economy and the Democratic nomination, acknowledging that there was “no way of knowing what events will draw America’s attention 18 or 20 months from now.” Now, the landscape has changed.

Democrats are likely to be united in the fall, and President Donald Trump’s standing is stuck where it has been for many months. There are also more questions about presidential leadership and the economy, which the president has been relying on to help him win a second term.

The president is an underdog now in his bid for a second term. That doesn’t mean he can’t win. It simply means that he is in a more difficult place than he was before, in part because Democrats have united behind a consensus candidate who has potentially broad appeal.

In my Jan. 3, 2019 column, I noted that my “Tilts Democratic” rating was based “on a combination of Trump’s current standing, his electoral performance in 2016, his party’s performance in 2018, questions about the Democratic Party’s ability to unite behind a broadly appealing nominee next year, and assumptions about the economy and state of the nation a year and a half from now.”

No, I didn’t anticipate impeachment or the coronavirus pandemic or the news about Trump’s effort to manipulate Ukraine. But my assessment of the race’s fundamentals, my reading of the president’s standing in the polls and my general assessment of the race remain little changed.