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The PBO report also provides an independent analysis of whether the carbon tax’s rebate system will leave consumers better or worse off financially.

It estimates most households in the four provinces will receive more in annual rebates than they pay in carbon taxes, except for the top 20% (based on income) in Ontario, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick, who will pay more in carbon taxes than they receive in rebates.

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For those households, costs are predicted to exceed rebates in Ontario by $45 annually starting in 2019-20, rising to $99 annually in 2023-24.

In Saskatchewan, top-earning households will pay $50 more annually in 2019-20 rising to $113 annually in 2023-24, and in New Brunswick, $13 more annually in 2019-20 rising to $14 in 2023-2024.

Because part of the carbon tax rebate depends on volatile export markets, the PBO developed an alternative scenario in which only total household costs are returned to consumers as rebates, excluding the export portion from the incentive payments.

Under that scenario, the top 40% of households by income would pay more in carbon taxes than they receive in benefits in Ontario and New Brunswick, while the top 20% would pay more in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

In this example, the costs of the carbon tax not covered by rebates in Ontario would be anywhere from $19 annually in 2019-20 to $188 annually in 2023-24, for higher-earning households.

In New Brunswick the range would be from $17 more in 2019-20 to $114 in 2023-24; in Saskatchewan from $73 more in 2019-20 to $142 in 2023-24 and in Manitoba, from $41 in 2019-20 to $91 in 2023-24.