ALBANY — It is amazing how much and how quickly our politics have changed.

Five years ago at this time, it looked as if the 2016 presidential election was set to be a snoozer between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush — a battle of two dynastic, establishment technocrats operating within a narrow ideological range.

Donald Trump upended everything, of course, batting aside Jeb! and the other Republicans before squeaking by a Clinton who had survived a much tougher primary than anyone expected.

You remember Clinton's 2016 challenger: Bernie Sanders, the septuagenarian now poised to win the Democratic nomination.

Sanders is doing to the Democrats what Trump did to the Republicans, upending the old guard and assumptions. The Vermont senator also is proving the country remains in a populist mood that rejects milquetoast politicians. He is showing just how many Americans believe the status quo is failing while the establishment is out of touch.

Upstate voters seem to agree. A poll released Monday by the Siena Research Institute in Loudonville showed that 35 percent of upstate Democrats favored Sanders in New York's upcoming primary. That's a remarkable, 23-point lead over second-place finisher Pete Buttigieg, the bland Indianian, who had 13 percent.

Siena asked about the general election, too, and found that upstate voters preferred Sanders over Trump 50 to 42 percent. The poll makes this much clear: Upstate is Sanders country.

New York elections are rarely won on the preferences of upstate voters, as those of us who live here sadly know. And while Sanders is also ahead among Democratic voters statewide, his lead is narrow — 25 percent for Bernie versus 21 percent for former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg.

As part of his novel effort at explicitly purchasing the presidency, Bloomberg argues that Sanders, the self-described democratic socialist, is too far left on economic issues to win the general election — but that's poppycock. Of course, Sanders can win. See: President Trump. If Trump can win, a bag of coffee grinds could.

Meanwhile, you could reasonably argue, given the populist mood we've discussed, that a centrist, neoliberal defender of Wall Street is exactly the wrong person for Democrats to nominate. The oligarch is the perfect Sanders foil, and a good one for Trump, too.

But given the freakout over Sanders' early success, it increasingly seems as though the Democratic establishment, in its venality and narcissism, is more afraid of a Bernie presidency than four more years of Trump. That makes sense: Sanders is a bigger threat to its power. If he wins, the establishment loses control.

So the party establishment, putting its own class interests above the half of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck, will do whatever it can to stop Sanders, even if means alienating the younger, working-class voters the party so desperately needs.

But Sanders is likely to last. And given the divided vote and dwindling resources of other Democrats who aren't billionaires, it increasingly looks as though the nomination will come down to a race between the Vermonter who still sounds like he's from Brooklyn and the New Yorker who still sounds like he's from New England.

What's especially intriguing, from an upstate perspective, is that New York's primary is likely to play a key role in the nomination. Folks! Our opinion might really matter! This is no small thing in a New York where statewide elections are rarely close and our blueness is a given on presidential-election maps.

New York votes April 28 as part of the so-called "Acela primary" of Northeastern states that includes Pennsylvania, Connecticut and three other states. New York is the biggest prize of the bunch, which means we can expect whatever candidates still remain will try to convince us of their wonderfulness.

It's already starting. The Buffalo News reports the Bloomberg campaign is planning 18 offices around the state and a mega-dose of TV spending. The Bloomberg big-money push will be good for the television industry, if bad for our sanity.

To Bloomberg's credit, the Democrats who know him best — the ones living in New York City — seem enthusiastic about his campaign. The Siena poll found that 42 percent of Democratic voters in the boroughs prefer Bloomberg, compared to 16 percent for Sanders, who finished second.

The poll was conducted mostly before Bloomberg's grim debate performance last week and Sanders' big weekend win in Nevada. Still, if the oligarch's popularity in New York City sticks, it'll be a formidable hurdle for Sanders to overcome, despite his popularity upstate.

cchurchill@timesunion.com ■ 518-454-5442 ■ @chris_churchill