Stivers can't name district Trump should campaign in

With Zach Montellaro, Elena Schneider and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


OFF MESSAGE — “They’ll clap, but will they campaign with Trump?” by Edward-Isaac Dovere in POLITICO Magazine: “Don’t mistake all the standing ovations on Tuesday night for House Republicans wanting to be anywhere near President Donald Trump between now and November. A new Morning Consult/POLITICO poll found that just 27 percent of registered voters believe that Trump’s support will have a positive impact on Republicans running for Congress this year, and 40 percent believe he’ll have a negative impact. Stuck in the middle is Ohio Congressman Steve Stivers, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, who in an interview for the latest episode of POLITICO’s Off Message podcast could not name a single battleground district where he’d send President Trump, despite the president’s promise earlier this month to campaign for Republicans four to five days a week into the fall. ‘He will be helpful in many, many places,’ Stivers said. ‘In almost every district, there are chunks of voters that he can be helpful with.’ ...

"Stivers’ case that Republicans will hold the House is a mix of determined optimism and cold calculation—though one, that in the face of the Democratic wave most assume is coming, can strike people as either compensation for panic or straight up denial: 'battle-tested' incumbents and benefits from the tax bill that will feed an overall positive sense of the economy—they’re branding it “the Great American Comeback”—helped along by a massive outside money advantage and beating up on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. But the first reason, he says, is a factor everyone knows about, but which Republicans rarely tout out loud: ‘I think it starts with the congressional lines,’ Stivers said, pointing to the successful gerrymandering after 2010. Later, asked if that validates Democrats’ argument that Republicans have tilted elections to their advantage, Stivers shrugged off the criticism: ‘You can say that, but the people elected them.’” Full story . Listen to the podcast here.

MONEY CHASE — “Big donors ready to reward Republicans for tax cuts,” by Campaign Pro’s Maggie Severns in Indian Wells, Calif.: “Attendees at a weekend retreat here for donors and operatives affiliated with the political network helmed by brothers Charles and David Koch cited the GOP's legislative breakthrough last month as a main reason for their renewed optimism heading into the midterms. The sense that donors wouldn't reach for their wallets for the 2018 elections — frequent in the late summer and fall — has all but evaporated following the enactment of legislation overhauling the tax code, which delivered a number of long-standing conservative policy goals. … House Republicans cashed their first big checks of the midterm election cycle from Charles Koch and his wife, Elizabeth, shortly before the final tax bill cleared Congress. The pair donated close to $1 million at the end of November, campaign finance records show. Within days of the tax bill passing the Senate, several other GOP donors started cutting checks too: Marlene Ricketts, whose family owns the Chicago Cubs, Metro Bank founder Vernon Hill and coal magnate Joseph Craft each gave between $50,000 and $100,000 to House Republicans' committees after not making large donations to federal candidates for the first 11 months of the year.” Full story.

ANOTHER ONE DOWN — “Frelinghuysen won't seek reelection,” by Campaign Pro’s Elena Schneider: “New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, the chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, will not seek reelection, the 12-term congressman announced on Monday. Frelinghuysen is the eighth Republican committee chairman to forego reelection in the House ahead of a midterm cycle that's building against the GOP. But Frelinghuysen, whose district grew increasingly competitive in 2016, served only one full year as Appropriations chairman and was not term-limited in his position, unlike other retiring lawmakers. ... Republican operatives floated several potential candidates, including Assemblyman Jay Webber, state Sen. Joe Pennacchio, Assemblyman Anthony Bucco and Rosemary Becchi, an attorney.” Full story.

— “From Annapolis to Congress? These Three Women Know Tough Missions,” by the New York Times’ Michael Tackett in Norfolk, Va.: “ Elaine Luria commanded an assault ship with a crew of 400 that patrolled the Persian Gulf for hostile Iranian vessels. Amy McGrath was the first female Marine to fly in an F-18 fighter jet in combat, dropping bombs over Afghanistan and Iraq. Mikie Sherrill was certified as a Navy helicopter pilot only after passing an underwater crash simulation in which she was blindfolded, turned upside down, and forced to find the sole exit door. … Now they are on a mission that no female Annapolis graduate has accomplished: to win seats in Congress.” Full story.

PARTY SHAKEUP — “Democratic National Committee CEO leaving post,” by POLITICO’s Gabriel Debenedetti: “Democratic National Committee Chief Executive Officer Jess O’Connell is leaving the organization less than a year after joining the committee, she announced to the staff in an email on Monday night. The departure of O’Connell — a longtime campaign pro who came to the DNC from EMILY’s List in May — comes at as the DNC works to rebuild under Chairman Tom Perez after years of neglect. It had struggled to raise money in 2017, but invested in local races in recent months.” Full story.

Days until the 2018 election: 279

Upcoming election dates — Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

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RECRUITMENT WATCH — “Former North Dakota GOP head, Gary Emineth, teases US Senate run,” by the Fargo Forum’s Sam Easter: “Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party and a Bismarck businessman, teased his interest in North Dakota's U.S. Senate race on Monday, Jan. 29, noting in an interview that he's ‘over 90 percent’ sure he'll run. Emineth said his interest in the race was kindled in the last few weeks when Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., decided to run for re-election, forgoing a run for the Senate he had publicly weighed for months. That coincided, Emineth said, with his prior decision to step down as vice president of sales with Green Chile Foods—a burrito company he had previously led—to spend less time traveling.” Full story.

THE #METOO MOMENT — “Both parties face dissent over handling of #MeToo,” by Maggie Severns and Marianne Levine: “While most Republican officeholders interviewed by POLITICO over the past two weeks expressed the view that voters, not lawmakers, should decide whether a lawmaker accused of sexual harassment loses his or her seat, the GOP lawmakers charged with increasing their party’s majorities in Congress say they’re ready to take action if credible allegations against a candidate surface in the future. Meanwhile, Democrats, who moved quickly to withdraw support for Sen. Al Franken, Rep. John Conyers and Kansas congressional candidate Andrea Ramsey based on allegations from many years earlier, are facing some complaints over what some perceive to be a rush to judgment.” Full story.

— “RGA to return $100K to Wynn Resorts,” by Campaign Pro’s Daniel Strauss: “The Republican Governors Association is returning $100,000 to Wynn Resorts, the chain of high-end hotels and casinos run by major GOP donor Steve Wynn, an RGA official confirmed today. Wynn stepped down as finance chairman of the Republican National Committee last week in response to reports of sexual misconduct. The RGA is also canceling the contract it had with Wynn Resorts to host the RGA's 2020 Annual Conference at the Wynn Las Vegas. … The $100,000 represents Wynn Resorts' contributions to the RGA in 2017, but does not include contributions from earlier cycles.” Full story.

— “Ex-campaign manager: Clinton ‘overruled’ firing staffer accused of harassment,” by Cristiano Lima: Full story. … “Spicer: RNC should 'return the money' from Wynn,” also by Lima: Full story.

REDISTRICTING WATCH — U.S. Supreme Court calls for response on Pennsylvania maps: Justice Samuel Alito has asked for a response on the Pennsylvania GOP's request for a stay in the gerrymandering ruling from the state Supreme Court. Alito calls for the response by Friday, Feb. 2, at 4 p.m.

Q4 TOTALS — FIRST IN SCORE — FL-07: Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy raised $350,000 last quarter, finishing 2018 with $950,000 in cash on hand.

— NEW THIS A.M. — VA-10: GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock raised $488,000 in the fourth quarter and has just under $1.2 million cash on hand.

— FIRST IN SCORE — TN-02: Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett raised more than $150,000 in the fourth quarter and has $207,000 on hand.

— NJ-11: Democrat Mikie Sherrill raised $490,000 last quarter, ending the year with $820,000 in cash on hand.

—NY-24: GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik has $1.2 million on hand after raising $268,000 in the fourth quarter, the Albany Times-Union reports.

—SD-GOV: “Attorney General Marty Jackley reported $920,000 while Rep. Kristi Noem reported just over $900,000. … State Sen. Billie Sutton’s campaign reported nearly $830,000. Sutton is the only Democrat in the race,” the Argus Leader reports.

THIRD PARTY WATCH — “With major party status, more NM Libertarians are running for office,” by the Albuquerque Journal’s Dan Boyd: “Thanks in large part to Gary Johnson’s performance in the 2016 presidential election, Libertarians will have easier access to the ballot in New Mexico for this year’s election cycle. A slate of Libertarian candidates is seeking to make the most of the newfound major party status – which will become official when Gov. Susana Martinez issues the 2018 election proclamation today.” Full story.

UP ON THE AIRWAVES — FIRST IN SCORE — Alex Triantaphyllis releases first TV ad in TX-07: Democrat Alex Triantaphyllis, who's running in a contested primary to take on GOP Rep. John Culberson, released his first TV ad on Tuesday. Triantaphyllis, addressing the camera, introduces himself, saying: "The 'T' also stands for tough. It won't be easy to take our country back from Donald Trump, but I approve this message because I'll fight every day until we do." The 15-second ad buy will air on cable stations in Houston and online. Check out the ad here.

— “Newman Goes Negative in First TV Ad Against Lipinski,” by NBC5’s Ward Room: “Marie Newman, who's challenging Rep. Dan Lipinski in the upcoming Democratic primary election, said Monday that she's taking to television airwaves. … Titled ‘Learn,’ the ad proclaims that Democrats are ‘done with Dan’ and calls Newman ‘the true Democrat in this race.’” Full story.

— Sara Jacobs releases SOTU TV ad in CA-49: Democrat Sara Jacobs is out with a TV ad that calls for a “new generation to change Washington.” “He’s out, but he’s still there,” the ad’s narrator says, showing pictures of GOP Rep. Darrell Issa and Trump. “And if we want to hold him accountable, we need to win back Congress." The ad, which will air first during the State of the Union, is part of a three-week buy in San Diego. Check it out here.

— Gina Ortiz Jones pops ad on health care in TX-23: Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is out with a TV ad that describes her mother’s battle with cancer, saying, “every mother, every family, every child deserves health care that protects them.” Check out the ad here.

— “Richard Corcoran’s explosive ad warns anyone can get killed by undocumented immigrants,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Emily L. Mahoney: “A young, red-haired woman walks through a suburban neighborhood, smiling and texting, until ‘an illegal immigrant’ in a hoodie turns around to shoot her, as the camera pans straight down the barrel. … [I]t's a new campaign ad released Monday morning by Florida House Speaker Richard Corcoran.” Full story.

WEB WARS — FIRST IN SCORE — Baldwin targets GOP members with State of the Union digital ad: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running a digital ad targeting Republican members of the House before, during and after the State of the Union. The ad reminds members that President Donald Trump supports Baldwin’s “Buy America” bill. “To my Republican colleagues, @realDonaldTrump supports my Buy America legislation 100%,” Baldwin’s promoted tweet reads.

— FIRST IN SCORE — Democrat Jeff Beals pops intro video in NY-19: Democrat Jeff Beals is out with a bio ad that explains his resume as a teacher, former U.S. diplomat and farmer. Beals, who was raised on his family’s farm, talks about how he “helped mediate the drafting of the Iraqi constitution” and “then I came home to the Hudson Valley raise my family.” Beals is running in a crowded, contested primary against several well-funded candidates, including Antonio Delgado and Pat Ryan. They’re all hoping to take on GOP Rep. John Faso. Check out the ad here.

GETTING THE NOD — Paul backs Rosendale: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul endorsed Montana Auditor Matt Rosendale in the state’s GOP Senate primary, joining Sens. Ted Cruz and Mike Lee. “Matt Rosendale is the type of fearless defender of liberty I want fighting by my side in the Senate,” Paul said. “Matt has proven himself a bold defender of our constitutional rights.” Paul’s endorsement has potential general election significance — both of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s wins came with the help of Libertarian candidates siphoning votes from Republicans.

— LCV Action Fund backs Lucas St. Clair in ME-02: The League of Conservation Voters Action Fund endorsed Democrat Lucas St. Clair, a nonprofit executive and the son of Burt’s Bees entrepreneur Roxanne Quimby, according to a statement from the group. St. Clair is running in a contested Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Address to the Congress on the State of Uniom.” — The official invitations to tonight’s State of the Union contained a glaring typo, POLITICO’s Heather Caygle reports.

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