Tom Latham is among those who have opted not to run for the seat next year. GOP prospects pass on Iowa Senate

Iowa’s 2014 Senate race became a golden opportunity for Republicans when Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin announced in January he wouldn’t seek another term. It’s a bona fide swing state, and the electorate should lean GOP if past midterms are any indication.

So why are so many of the GOP’s top prospects taking a pass?


State Agriculture Commissioner Bill Northey is the latest to forgo the race, announcing Thursday that he feels he can better serve the state in his current position. He follows Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, who announced just last week that she, too, was sitting the race out.

( PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)

Northey and Reynolds, along with Rep. Tom Latham, are three top candidates who have all opted against running for Senate against Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, the all-but-certain Democratic nominee. At this point, the only remaining high-profile prospect who hasn’t ruled out a run is Rep. Steve King.

Iowa Republicans say a combination of factors is keeping some of their most promising potential away: the fact that Harkin’s announcement was fairly unexpected; the quick time frame in which possible candidates are expected, by the media and by supporters, to make a decision; and a general desire to stay in their current positions or pursue other opportunities down the line.

“If you’re Tom Latham, I think you say, ‘I just got elected to a new district, defeated a sitting congressman, and it’s not a natural move to turn around and say, ‘Well, now I’m a U.S. Senate candidate,’” said Craig Robinson, a former Iowa GOP political director who edits The Iowa Republican.

Nick Ryan, who heads the American Future Fund, said considerations about keeping seniority in current jobs or possible plans to run for other statewide offices might be playing a role.

Latham is a “very senior member” of the House Appropriations Committee, he said in an email. “Being a freshman senator might not make a lot of sense.”

In regard to Reynolds and Northey, Ryan said, both of them “seemed more comfortable in state office” — and possible gubernatorial ambitions also might play a part in their calculus.

There’s also the fact that Harkin’s retirement came as a surprise to many Republicans in the state, Robinson said.

“The Harkin announcement … caught Republicans completely off guard and they weren’t prepared for it,” he said. “That’s why these decisions by some of these bigger name candidates — they’re happening because they weren’t prepared for it, mentally or even just organizationally. They hadn’t done the groundwork.”

King, who would most likely clear the field if he gets in, has said repeatedly that he’s still making up his mind, and also that he never expected to still be undecided by May.

“There’s a lot of support to do this, and I just don’t know the answer,” he said, per the Des Moines Register. “And I’m embarrassed that I don’t know the answer.”

Some state Republicans say King’s indecision points to the congressman also not running.

“The longer this goes on that King doesn’t make up his mind, the more likely it is that King will not run,” said social conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats. “Although I’m one of those on the sidelines encouraging Steve King to run.”

If King does run, he’d immediately get the backing of many Republicans in the state: Northey, when he decided not to run himself, threw his support behind a hypothetical King campaign if it happens.

“Congressman Steve King has been a strong conservative leader in Washington and would serve our state well in the Senate,” Northey said in a statement. “Should he decide to run, he would have my full support. If he decides against running, our state is fortunate to have many qualified and exciting candidates.”

So where does that leave Iowa Republicans? If King opts against running, some lesser-known GOP pols in the state have expressed interest in the race: Secretary of State Matt Schultz, state Sen. Joni Ernst, former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker and David Young, an aide to Sen. Chuck Grassley.

“Until King rules himself out, it’s hard for those other people to actually jump in the race and say, ‘Yeah, I’m actually going to do it,’” Robinson said.

All of those candidates would have more of an uphill battle to build the statewide name ID and organization than King or some of the other more well-known prospects.

Vander Plaats said he believes that Latham might reconsider if King declines.

“If you reread his note to his supporters of why he wasn’t going to run for Senate, he definitely gives himself an opening to get back in if that’s what he chose to do,” he said. “Now, if King determines he’s not going to run, I think the landscape has shifted … and Tom Latham needs to reassess his interest in the race.”

In the meantime, Republicans’ lack of a candidate gives Braley time to build up a fundraising advantage and increase his name ID around the state.

“Braley is the presumptive nominee,” Robinson said. “That’s an advantage for him because as Democrats are rallying around their candidates, Republicans are looking around for a candidate.”