An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

mbpd= Million of barrels per day

Gb= Billion of barrels (10 9 )

Tb= Trillion of barrels (10 12 )

NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids

CO= Crude Oil + lease condensate

NGL= Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL)

URR= Ultimate Recoverable Resource

EIA Last Update (February)

Data sources for the production numbers:

Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).

EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to February 2007) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).

The All liquids peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production value in 2007 (2 months) is down from 2005 for all the categories except for NGPL. The peak date for Crude Oil + Cond. is May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd (see Table I below).



Fig 1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have been upsampled to get monthly estimates. Click to Enlarge.

Category Feb 2007 Feb 2006 12 MA1 2007 (2 Months) 2006 (2 Months) Share Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids 84.68 84.41 84.48 84.26 84.46 100.00% 2006-07 85.43 Crude Oil + NGL 81.59 81.43 81.30 81.24 81.30 96.35% 2005-05 82.08 Other Liquids 3.09 2.98 3.18 3.02 3.16 3.65% 2006-08 3.54 NGPL 8.24 7.97 7.99 8.15 7.96 9.73% 2007-02 8.24 Crude Oil + Condensate 73.35 73.47 73.31 73.09 73.34 86.62% 2005-05 74.15 Table I - Production estimate (in millions of barrels per day (mbpd)) for February 2007 taken from the EIA website (International Petroleum Monthly). 1Moving Average on the last 12 months.



Fig 3.- Share of each liquid category to the total liquid production. Click to Enlarge.



Fig 4.- World oil production (Crude oil + NGL) and various forecasts (1940-2050). The light gray box gives the particular area where the Figures below are zooming in. Click to Enlarge.

Business as Usual



Fig 5.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis



Fig 6.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Curve Fitting



Fig 7.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

Production Growth



Fig 8.- Year-on-Year production growth. Click to Enlarge.

The share of CO is now only 86.6% of the total liquid production.The figure below is giving the general context where all the forecasts are situated, in the following we will focus on the 2000-2025 period shown as a gray box.The following results are based on a linear or non-linear fit of a parametric curve (most often a Logistic curve) directly on the observed production profile:The chart below gives the year-on-year production growth (or decline) for each month. Growth has been weak (below 1%) since 2005..





Forecast 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015 Diff2 Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids Observed (All Liquids) 84.56 84.51 84.26 NA NA 2006-07 85.43 IEA (WEO, 2004) 82.06 83.74 85.41 90.40 98.69 -1.16 2030 121.30 IEA (WEO, 2005) 84.00 85.85 87.64 92.50 99.11 -3.38 2030 115.40 Koppelaar (2005) 84.06 85.78 86.61 89.21 87.98 -2.36 2011 89.58 Lahèrrere (2005) 83.59 84.47 85.23 86.96 87.77 -0.97 2014 87.84 EIA (IEO, 2006) 82.70 84.50 86.37 91.60 98.30 -2.11 2030 118.00 IEA (WEO, 2006) 83.60 85.10 86.62 91.30 99.30 -2.36 2030 116.30 CERA1 (2006) 87.77 89.52 91.62 97.24 104.54 -7.36 2035 130.00 Lahèrrere (2006) 83.59 84.82 85.96 88.93 92.27 -1.70 2018 92.99 Smith (2006) 85.19 87.77 90.88 98.94 98.56 -6.62 2012-05 99.83 Crude Oil + NGL Observed (EIA) 81.45 81.33 81.24 NA NA 2005-05 82.08 GBM (2003) 76.06 76.27 76.33 75.30 67.79 4.91 2007-05 76.34 Bakhtiari (2003) 80.24 80.89 80.89 77.64 69.51 0.34 2006 80.89 ASPO-46 81.00 80.95 80.80 80.00 73.77 0.43 2005 81.00 ASPO-58 81.00 82.03 83.10 85.00 79.18 -1.86 2010 85.00 Staniford (High) 77.45 77.92 78.31 79.01 78.51 2.92 2011-10 79.08 Staniford (Med) 75.81 75.94 75.97 75.52 73.00 5.27 2007-05 75.98 Staniford (Low) 70.46 70.13 69.71 67.92 63.40 11.53 2002-07 70.88 IEA (WEO, 2006) 80.10 81.38 82.67 86.50 92.50 -1.43 2030 104.90 Koppelaar (2006) 81.76 82.31 83.68 91.00 NA -2.44 2010 91.00 Skrebowski (2006) 80.90 81.42 82.59 87.32 NA -1.35 2010 87.92 Smith (2006) 80.53 82.81 85.45 91.95 88.60 -4.21 2011-02 92.31 Loglets 81.12 82.14 83.02 84.65 83.26 -1.78 2012-01 84.80 ASPO-76 77.92 79.00 81.35 90.00 85.00 -0.11 2010 90.00 Robelius Low (2006) 81.45 82.19 82.50 81.84 72.26 -1.26 2007 82.50 Robelius High (2006) 81.45 84.19 86.67 93.40 92.40 -5.44 2012 94.54 Shock Model (2006) 80.76 80.43 80.01 78.27 73.74 1.23 2003 81.17 Crude Oil + Lease Condensate Observed (EIA) 73.65 73.39 73.09 NA NA 2005-05 74.15 ASPO-46 72.80 72.56 72.25 71.00 63.55 0.84 2005 72.80 Deffeyes (2004) 69.81 69.81 69.71 68.90 65.88 3.38 2005-12 69.82 ASPO-58 73.00 73.80 74.65 76.00 69.50 -1.56 2010 76.00 IEA (WEO, 2006) 70.80 71.78 72.77 75.70 80.30 0.32 2030 89.10 CERA1 (2006) 76.49 76.89 78.60 82.29 83.83 -5.51 2038 97.58 ASPO-76 71.11 72.10 73.66 78.00 72.00 -0.57 2010 78.00 HSM (2007) NA 73.56 73.53 72.82 69.53 -0.44 2006 73.56 Table II. Summary of all the forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.1Productive capacities. 2Difference between the observed production for 2007 and the predicted value (in mbpd), the value in bold indicates the best forecast (i.e. the oldest with the lowest difference.

Next update probably in September.

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Oilwatch - June 2007

Khebab@theoildrum.com