From left: Karnataka BJP chief BS Yeddyurappa, former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, and Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah (Photo of Yeddyurappa: Twitter/@BSYBJP | Photos of Deve Gowda, Siddaramaiah: Getty Images)

The Congress may romp home to power in the Karnataka Assembly election with majority of six castes and community groups voting for the ruling party. These six groups constitute 48 per cent of the population.

As per the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, majority of the SC, ST, Muslims and Christians have voted for the Congress.

The ruling Congress is likely to win 106-118 seats, BJP 79-92 seats, while the JD(S) seems to be winning 22-30 seats of the total 222 constituencies that went to polls today.

According to the exit poll, 43 per cent of the STs, 48 per cent of the SCs, 80 per cent of the Muslims, 61 per cent of Kurbas, 68 per cent of Christians and 38 per cent of Gollas have voted for the Congress in Karnataka, polling for which was held today.

On the other hand, 33 per cent of the STs, 26 per cent of the SCs, only 5 per cent of the Muslims, 22 per cent of the Kurubas, 18 per cent of the Christians and 36 per cent of the Gollas for the BJP.

Compared with the Congress, the BJP gets the support of the majority of 11 caste groups, including those of the Lingayats, Brahmins, OBCs, upper castes and some other castes.

The BJP gets votes of 62 per cent of Lingayats, 66 per cent of the Brahmins, 49 per cent of the OBCs, 52 per cent of the upper castes, 57 per cent of the Marathi Kshatriyas, 54 per cent of the Edigas, 53 per cent of the Nekaras, 51 of the Reddys, 42 per cent of the Bestharu, 40 per cent of the Upparas and 38 per cent of the Tamils.

BJP's chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa is a Lingayat. Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's announcement to accord a separate religion to the Lingayats has not made much difference as the community seems to have stuck with the BJP and Yeddyurappa.

During his visit to the UK last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid tributes to the Lingayat philosopher and founder Basaveshwara on the banks of the River Thames in London. Modi garlanded a statue of the Lingayats' god.

Earlier, Modi had inaugurated the statue of Basaveshwara during his visit to London in 2015.

Besides, the fielding of the Reddy brothers seems to have helped the BJP in the election.

The JD(S) has got the votes of the majority of the Vokkaligas to which party president Deve Gowda belongs. About 54 per cent of the Vokkaligas have voted for the JD(S), 23 per cent for the BJP and 18 per cent for the Congress.

Castes play a significant role in the Karnataka Assembly election. All parties have fielded candidates according to their "winnability".

Among the main castes, while the Scheduled Tribes (ST) constitute 7 per cent of the population, Scheduled Castes (SC) constitute 17 per cent, Muslims 13 per cent, Kurubas 7 per cent, Christians 3 per cent, Lingayats 14 cent, Brahmins 3 per cent and Other Backward Classes (OBC) are 12 per cent of the population.

Out of the 224 seats in the Karnataka Assembly, 36 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 15 for Scheduled Tribes.

As far as the number of seats on which different castes wield influence is concerned, Muslims dominate on 13 of the total Assembly seats, Kurubas on three seats, Christians on one seat, Lingayats - to which BJP's chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa belongs - on the maximum 76 seats, Marathi Kshatriyas on seven seats, Edigas on eight seats, Vokkaligas on 54 seats and Bestharus and Tamils on one seat each.

Lingayats and Vokkaligas have been the most influential castes in Karnataka politics. Majority of the chief ministers of Karnataka have come from either the Lingayat or Vokkaliga community.

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has cleverly devised AHINDA (acronym for Alpa Sankhyatara, Hindulida, Dalit or minorities, backward castes and Dalits) campaign to expand Congress' penetration among the stake-holding caste groups.

Besides, Siddaramaiah has tried to win over the BJP's main vote plank, the Lingayats by acceding to their long-standing demand for recognition as a separate religious denomination from Hinduism.

The Siddaramaiah government has recommended the Modi government at the Centre to accord religious minority status to Lingayats. This move has presented the BJP with a Hobson's choice going into Karnataka Assembly polls.

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