Lyell: My prediction on number of wins for CSU football team

Kelly Lyell | The Coloradoan

Fall camp doesn't begin for another month, and the first football game is two months away. But it's never too early for predictions, so here's my take on how the 2017 CSU football team will fare.

There are lots of reasons for fans to be excited about what Colorado State University's football team can accomplish this fall:

There's a new $220 million stadium that should be filled to near capacity for all six home games and three schools from Power 5 conferences to play in the first four weeks of the season, including a daunting road trip to Alabama.

The offense is an experienced group, directed by a fifth-year senior at quarterback in Nick Stevens and a receiver, Michael Gallup, who is coming off the third-best single season in school history.

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Three standout running backs who proved themselves a year ago are back along with an offensive line led by fifth-year senior Jake Bennett and Aurora theater-shooting survivor Zach Golditch.

Coach Mike Bobo is in his third season, and his coaching staff remains unchanged from 2016. His predecessor, Jim McElwain, guided the Rams to a 10-win season and a two-week stint in the Top 25 in his third season at CSU in 2014.

Here are reasons for optimism:

Run the table, and the Rams could legitimately have a shot at becoming the first school from a Group of 5 conference to earn a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff to determine the national champion.

Win 10 or 11 games and a Mountain West championship, and they would be the odds-on favorite to earn the Group of 5's spot in the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach bowls, thanks to the strength of the nonconference schedule.

Win six or more games, and the Rams will be eligible to play in a bowl game for the fifth straight season, matching a school record.

There are also plenty of reasons for concern:

That grueling start could lead to early losses that will sap the Rams' momentum before they even get into the Mountain West schedule. A trip to Hawaii for the Sept. 30 conference opener won't be much fun for CSU and its fans if the Rams are humiliated two weeks earlier at Alabama.

Injuries to key players and at certain positions could be difficult to overcome with limited depth.

And the defense, despite returning eight starters, is suspect after giving up an average of 419.6 yards and 30.4 points a game in 2016.

Two key stretches can make or break the Rams this fall.

Those three games against Power 5 conference schools in the first four weeks and a three-game stretch late in the season of games vs. MW Mountain Division foes Air Force (home), at Wyoming and Boise State (home).

The Rams can win eight to 10 games if they get off to a good start, turning the energy of the new stadium into a season-opening win over an Oregon State program that's fallen on hard times in recent years. Do that, and they should be able to beat Colorado a week later in Denver since the Buffs will be playing their first game and the Rams will be playing their second, giving CSU a huge advantage.

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Every year, there's a Football Bowl Subdivision team or two that loses to a team from the lower-level Football Championship Subdivision, as CSU did in 2013 vs. North Dakota State. But if CSU is 2-0 going into its Sept. 9 game against Abilene Christian, the Rams should roll.

CSU isn't going to win at Alabama. There's no shame in that, because nobody is likely to beat the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa this year, not Mississippi, not Tennessee and not LSU.

But hold their own, as the Rams did in 2013 before losing 31-6, and they'll be just fine the rest of the season.

Hawaii is going to be better under second-year coach Nick Rolovich. But with a bye week to rest up before making the trip to Honolulu, CSU should be able to win its Sept. 30 conference opener.

The next two games – Oct. 7 at Utah State and at home Oct. 14 against Nevada – are ones the Rams should win. Same with an Oct. 20 game at New Mexico.

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That's followed by a make-or-break run against the other top teams in the MW Mountain Division. Getting Air Force at home Oct. 28 could be the difference in that game. But the Nov. 4 trip to Laramie to face Wyoming could be a rough one for the Rams. Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen has been projected as the No. 1 or 2 overall pick in next year's NFL draft, and the Cowboys made major strides last year in coach Craig Bohl's fourth season.

I don't see the Rams getting past Boise State this year, even with the home field advantage for the Nov. 11 game. The Broncos have an offense every bit as explosive as CSU's, with a veteran quarterback at the controls in Brett Rypien. And despite returning just a handful of starters on defense, they have a lot of experienced backups moving into starting roles on what usually is one of the MW's top units.

So the Rams aren't likely to win that Mountain Division title. But a win the following week in the regular-season finale at home against San Jose State should get them to a 9-3 season, their best since 2014, and a fifth straight bowl game.

Win one or two of the games I don't think they will, and they'll be the Group of 5 team everyone in the country is talking about and voting into their Top 25 as the season winds down. Drop two or three of the games I think they should win, and it'll be another 7-6 kind of year.

That was OK in Bobo's first two seasons, as the Rams adapted to new offensive and defensive schemes and new ways of doing things.

This year, they have to do better.

Sports reporter Kelly Lyell covers CSU sports for the Coloradoan. Follow him at twitter.com/KellyLyell and facebook.com/KellyLyell.news.

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