In January, the Trump administration predicted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s imminent downfall as he wrestled with an energized opposition, debilitating U.S. oil sanctions and international isolation after dozens of nations proclaimed his leadership illegitimate.

Today, Mr. Maduro appears in firm control. The opposition is grappling with a corruption scandal and its efforts to rekindle street protests have fallen flat. Venezuela’s crisis-racked economy is showing subtle signs of improvement. And governments across Latin America are facing their own political turmoil, distracting from once-burgeoning international efforts to remove the Venezuelan strongman from power.

“Maduro is probably feeling better about himself right now than he has in the last several years,” said Fernando Cutz, a former official of the U.S. National Security Council who worked on policy toward Venezuela. “I am less optimistic right now than I have been in the last three years. I don’t see any reason to forecast that 2020 will bring positive change for the people of Venezuela.”

The rosier outlook for Mr. Maduro underscores the difficulty for the U.S. and its allies in ousting a leader who has control of the armed forces and police and readily uses those forces to repress the opposition. It also highlights the excessive optimism of the Trump administration and what critics of the American policy said were unrealistic expectations that pressure tactics would easily force Mr. Maduro and his lieutenants from power.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. On Jan. 23, Juan Guaidó, the head of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, declared himself interim president. Within days, the U.S. and dozens of other countries recognized him as Venezuela’s rightful president over Mr. Maduro, a leftist autocrat accused of fraudulently winning re-election in 2018.