The poll also shows a muddled political outlook for members of Congress. | Detroit News via AP Poll: Voters split on GOP tax bill

Voters are divided on the GOP tax bill poised to clear both chambers of Congress this week, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

The survey, conducted Dec. 14-18, shows a narrow, 42 percent plurality of voters support legislation, introduced by Republicans in Congress, that makes widespread changes to the U.S. tax system. Slightly less, 39 percent, oppose the legislation. The remaining 18 percent of voters are undecided.


The intensity gap tilts against the bill, however: More voters strongly oppose the legislation, 26 percent, than strongly support it, 20 percent.

Moreover, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll stands in contrast to other public surveys that show majorities in opposition to the bill. A CNN poll, also released on Tuesday and conducted over virtually the same time period, shows just a third of Americans favor “the tax reform proposals made by the Republicans in Congress,” while a 55 percent majority oppose them.

Internal Republican surveys also show greater opposition to the tax plan. A poll released Tuesday by 45 Committee, a conservative nonprofit group with close ties to President Donald Trump, shows 40 percent support “the Republican plan to reform the federal tax code and cut personal and business taxes” — less than the 49 percent that oppose it.

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As for the bill, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows its most popular components are nearly doubling the standard deduction that Americans can claim on their tax returns from $12,700 to $24,000 (60 percent say it should be in the bill), increasing the child tax credit between 60 percent and 100 percent (58 percent say it should be in the bill) and continuing to allow individuals to deduct their state income taxes from their federal taxable income and allowing individuals to deduct state and local property taxes up to $10,000 (58 percent).

Less popular are the benefits that go mostly to wealthier Americans. Only 31 percent say a cut in the income-tax rate for married couples earning more than $1 million a year from 39.6 percent to 37 percent should be in the bill. Just 28 percent want the bill to include an increase in the threshold to incur the estate tax, from $5.6 million presently to $11 million under the bill.

While the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows greater support for the tax legislation than other surveys, it also suggests Republicans still haven’t sold the benefits to voters. If the bill is enacted, a third of voters, 33 percent, expect the total amount of taxes they pay will increase. Only 20 percent believe the total amount they pay in taxes will decrease. A quarter expect they’ll pay about the same amount, and the remaining 22 percent don’t know.

The poll also shows a muddled political outlook for members of Congress. About a third of voters, 32 percent, say they would be more likely to vote to reelect their member if that member votes for the bill — while the same percentage say it would make them less likely to vote to reelect their member. Fourteen percent of voters say it won’t make much difference either way, and 22 percent are undecided.

"While voters are mixed on the tax bill, it is likely that it will still play a role in next year's midterms," said Kyle Dropp, the co-founder and chief research officer of Morning Consult. "The economy still tracks as the No. 1 issue when voters head to the polls."

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2oL0JuF | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2kK12Rh