The state’s employers cut 1,000 jobs in October, and Ohio now has 10,300 fewer jobs than it did in January, according to Ohio Department of Job and Family Services data released Friday.

Unless something changes, and fast, 2019 will be the first year that Ohio has shed jobs since 2009, when the state lost nearly 200,000 during the Great Recession.

Ohio is not alone, said Ball State University economist Mike Hicks.

"If you look at the Midwest, employment as a whole is down everywhere," he said, noting weakness in Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin in addition to Ohio during the past year.

Of particular concern is how tariffs have affected the region’s manufacturing base, Hicks said.

That sector had been steadily adding jobs in Ohio since the recession ended. But manufacturing employment has been trending lower since it peaked in January, including a loss of 2,300 jobs in October.

"In my judgment, this is a predictable response to the tariffs and trade war," Hicks said.

The manufacturing numbers might not be as bad as they look, said Tom Jackson, an IHS Markit economist. Manufacturers might have boosted production ahead of the implementation of tariffs, and the recent strike by General Motors workers could have pulled down some numbers, he said.

"In a way, I’m surprised the manufacturing number wasn’t worse in October," Jackson said. "That should bounce back in November.’’

Hicks expects manufacturing’s struggles to continue through at least most of 2020.

He also said the problems in manufacturing could be spilling over into other sectors, such as retail, which has lost 5,000 jobs over the past year.

"Seeing what is happening today in the Midwest, a recession is knocking at the door," he said. "It may or may not spread to the rest of the country.’’

Given Ohio’s low population growth and forecasts showing that the national economy is slowing, it is hard to see where positive momentum could come from absent a trade deal, Jackson said.

"It’s about where you’d expect to be," he said.

Unemployment rose by 3,000 workers during October to 246,000 workers, and the jobless rate held steady at 4.2%, the state said.

The state’s unemployment rate remained above the U.S. rate of 3.6% in October. Ohio’s rate was 4.6% in October 2018.

A boost in government hiring made the jobs picture look better. Government employment increased by 3,000, driven by a gain of 3,100 local government jobs and 700 state government jobs. The federal government cut 800 jobs.

The leisure and hospitality sector added 2,400 jobs last month, and the sector that covers private education and health care added 2,300 jobs.

A broad sector of jobs that covers fields such as dry-cleaning, laundry services and pet care cut 2,300 jobs during the month. There also was a loss of 1,700 jobs in professional and business services and 1,700 jobs in a category that covers retail and wholesale trade.

mawilliams@dispatch.com

@BizMarkWilliams