J.J. Nelson Fantasy 2017

If I told you that there was a possible 1,000-yard receiver that was available in your dynasty free agency free for the taking, would you go pick him up? I’m a numbers guy, so before I reveal the player, let’s look at his numbers only. In 2016, he was the 3rd highest targeted player on his team, being thrown to 12.73% of all the passing targets. He also accrued 15.49% of the red zone targets, bringing in 4 of those in for touchdowns, which tied he and Fitzgerald for the most red-zone touchdowns on his team. He gained another 2 touchdowns both in a dynamic fashion; 1 touchdown coming off of an 80-yard reception and the other on a 56-yard end around. This receiver plays with flashing speed, quick feet, and increasing his usage with his team each of his first two years. He is now going into his 3rd year as a receiver, which will excite those of you who believe in the 3rd year WR explosion theory. Not only does this player carry massive upside by his own abilities but also with the entire offensive unit. His rookie year the team amassed 4,616 passing yards which ranked them #2 overall as a passing offense, and in his sophomore season, they ranked #9 overall with 4,136.

[the_ad id=”66786″]Arizona Cardinals wide receivershould be near the top of every dynasty free agency list. At 5’10”, 160 pounds, and incredible athletic numbers ( 4.28-40 127′ long jump ), I would think that Nelson would warrant a look in nearly every league in fantasy, especially for Dynasty leagues. But for those of you who still haven’t noticed this ascension, then take notice now. The time has come for Nelson to be owned in every Dynasty league if it’s not already too late.

By looking at the numbers we can see that J.J. Nelson has the potential for tremendous upside in the coming years. I see his upside coming in several different ways: his elite speed, defensive play against Arizona, and future red-zone potential.

First, he plays on a team who loves to air the ball out a bit and let their receivers get deep and attempt to break coverages. Because of his speed, 4.28-40, he fits this scheme ideally. Last year we saw him break coverage multiple times and take some long balls to the house. Specifically, last year against the Seahawks in Week 16 he blew by his coverage and swallowed up an 80-yard TD pass after slipped between 2 defenders. Before that, we saw his elite speed when he simply outran Dolphins defenders when he took an end around 56-yards for another touchdown. When he is given an opening he can be a dangerous weapon. Some of the open field space he that defenses give to him is largely based on how the defenses have shifted when playing against the Cardinals.

ADP Data Credit: FantasyFootballCalculator.com

The continued dominance of Arizona’s running game has forced defenses to scheme around stopping RB David Johnson. Looking back at the tape of Nelson’s big plays against Seattle in Week 16 you will notice that Seattle’s defense stacks the box to stop the run. Doing this forces the defense to leave more space in the field for a shifty receiver like Nelson to get open. This alteration in defensive play led to the biggest game of Nelson’s career; 3 receptions for 132-yards and 1 touchdown. As David Johnson continues to roll defenses you should expect to see more games in which Nelson is utilized in the space between defenders for his speed. Clearly, this is helped by working with an intelligent QB who can quickly diagnose and change the play when defenses allow this to happen.

Last year Nelson was the 3rd highest targeted Cardinal. As stated, he accrued 12.73% of the targets and 15.49% of red zone targets, only being led by Fitzgerald (27.33%/28.17%) and Johnson (20.88%/21.13%). Arizona clearly trusts him in the everywhere on the field, including the red zone, expect this to continue. He may not see an increase in that percentage this year but in the future, you can bet that number would increase dramatically upon the retirement of Fitzgerald. With all this going for him, you may ask how he is available at all? To which I say, there are two primary reasons which keep Nelson sidelined in many leagues. First, his high-flying quarterback is expected to retire this year; secondly, the drafting of new WR Chad Williams. J.J. Nelson catches a 10-yard touchdown pass from Carson Palmer! #NOvsAZ pic.twitter.com/8PypLLauml — Chat Sports (@ChatSports) December 18, 2016

To the first issue, I will simply point to the coach, Bruce Arians. The Arians led Cardinals always will rely on an intelligent QB. To quote Arians, “It really starts here [points to his head] … If you’ve got a [QB] who’s got grit and can lead, you can probably live with his skill level.” Arians needs an intelligent QB who can know when and how to read a defense and set himself up to win on every play, even if it isn’t with the big plays. Looking forward, after Palmer’s eventual retirement, it is safe to assume that Arians and GM Steve Keim will find the best QB for his scheme and if there is a coach in the NFL who will calm fears about the development of QBs, it must be Arians.

Secondly, we still haven’t seen Williams play in Cardinal’s red so it is difficult to predict how they will use him. But in my opinion, Williams and Nelson are two very different receivers. Williams measured at 6’1″ 204-pounds and most noticeably he benched 21 reps at his pro day. He is a tough, mean, physical receiver which great speed, though not as quick developing as Nelson. I believe that in time they will create a terrific duo of WRs for Arizona to use instead of eating into each other’s production.