

With France fluffing their best opportunity for a smooth run-in by drawing to Belarus in Minsk at the close of last season, the campaign is rather precariously perched on the upcoming 2 match swing to Central Europe. Collect 6 points by beating Albania and Romania and Les Bleus would only need 1 win from their final 2 games (vs Albania and Bosnia & Herzegovina) to assure qualification. And that’s assuming Belarus defeat Bosnia & Herzegovina On Friday.

As things stand:

Obviously, these are going to be 2 very tough games. After all, this is a team who’s only scored more than 2 goals once in 13 games since last summer’s World Cup désastre. And even though France ride an 11 match unbeaten streak, including a pair of high-profile friendly wins vs England and Brazil, they certainly do not ooze confidence. A sense of fragility still lurks…

With that in mind, it’s not a surprise that Laurent Blanc has tried his best to select as unchanged a squad as possible from the one that faced Chile a few weeks ago.

The squad

Keepers: Cédric Carrasso (Bordeaux), Hugo Lloris (Lyon), Steve Mandanda (Marseille)

Defenders: Eric Abidal (Barcelona), Patrice Evra (Manchester United), Younes Kaboul (Tottenham), Laurent Koscielny (Arsenal), Adil Rami (Valencia), Anthony Réveillère (Lyon), Bacary Sagna (Arsenal)

Midfielders: Yohan Cabaye (Newcastle), Alou Diarra (Marseille), Yann M’Vila (Rennes), Florent Malouda (Chelsea), Marvin Martin (Sochaux), Blaise Matuidi (PSG), Samir Nasri (Manchester City), Mathieu Valbuena (Marseille), Jérémy Ménez (PSG), Franck Ribéry (Bayern Munich)

Forwards: Karim Benzema (Real Madrid), Kevin Gameiro (PSG), Guillaume Hoarau (PSG), Loïc Rémy (Marseille)

The keepers are unchanged. As I’ve mentioned before though, Lloris seems a bit less the human wall than he did when he first took hold of the number 1 shirt. I wouldn’t say he’s regressed, but he seems less confident when faced with having to come out for balls. He’ll need to be in very good form for these 2 away games. The pitches won’t be great so there is always that danger of tame shots causing big problems.

Defence has been an issue due to injuries and suspensions. Rami is suspended for the Albania game and La Liga has only just started, so his overall fitness could be in question. While he was part of a Valencia side that conceded 3 goals to Santander, he helped get the victory by scoring a goal on his club debut. Well done my son!

Blanc paired Abidal and Kaboul vs Chile with an obvious eye to having them start vs Albania. They did well enough in that game and there certainly won’t be an Alexis Sanchez in Tirana or Bucharest to trouble them. However, Kaboul experienced a horrid time vs Man City at the weekend, being out of position for Dzeko’s first 2 goals and being part of a side that got blown away 5-1 (the 1 being a Kaboul header!). Koscielny had his own issues in Arsenal’s shellacking at Old Trafford whilst Sagna didn’t even play, as a result of an illness (he has recovered). I suppose Blanc will stick with Kaboul—his toughness and Klingon strength will be required, especially vis a vis set pieces.

There had been talk of the young Montpellier defender Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa getting a place in the squad on account of his club’s great start to Ligue 1 but with such a crucial 2 games in 2 hostile venues, it makes sense to go with known quantities (TBH, I’m relieved, can you imagine typing that name?!).

Valbuena comes back into the midfield after missing out vs Chile through injury. And with 2 goals vs Lille at the weekend he’ll be brimming with confidence and no doubt looking for a chance to solidify his place in the starting lineup. He’s the perfect player to unlock stingy Balkan defences.

Ribéry also returns to the squad and he too has enjoyed a great start to club football this season. He is, for the moment, fit and enjoying his football again. He’s bagged himself a goal and an assist in 3 games so far.

Up front, there was talk of some fresh faces coming in—maybe Montpellier’s main man Olivier Giroud or Lyon’s Bafétimbi Gomis, both of whom have enjoyed great starts to the season. However, Blanc stuck with Hoarau, even though he’s hardly played for PSG. Blanc is trying to create stability and Hoarau is a very hard worker and seems to be a great guy as well. He hasn’t got a big ego and is probably happy enough being part of the squad. You need guys like that in a team for sure. But he’s had a good run now and hasn’t produced much at all. Personally, I’d like to see Gomis come back in again. He’s athletic and physical and if nothing else, would be an interesting player for the defence to practice set pieces against. He’s inconsistent though, so I’m not suggesting he supplant Benzema or Gameiro.

Tactics

Blanc made it pretty clear that he thinks this will be a tough a trip. “We’re going to get knocked around […] especially in the first few minutes”, he told reporters at least week’s press conference. He also seems prepared to win ugly: “We’re going [over there] to win. But these are two games away from home.” He also told reporters that it will be a different starting XI to the one that opened vs Chile. And you know both Albania and Romania will put men behind the ball—especially Albania. That tells me he’s certainly not going to be as adventurous as he was vs Chile. I fear that means the dreaded return of a second defensive midfielder. France will play to keep the ball and these days that seems to mean 2 DMs. I hope that’s not the case. I know France have progressed a lot since the Domenech days but seeing 2 DMs brings back bad memories: lacklustre play; possession but no end product; games being decided in the last 10 minutes despite playing inferior opposition…

We could see a kind of false defensive midfielder, with M’Vila pushing forwards as Diarra lounges on a deck chair. But that can easily regress to 2 normal DMs.

I’d much rather see an attacking style from the get go, even if it means losing some possession. This rebuilding process has been all about letting players express themselves again, enjoying their football and getting up the pitch. I’d hate to see that put on hold for the sake of grinding out a 1-0 win. The best teams (like Barca) don’t compromise their playing style. Yes, I want to qualify, but France needs a new DNA first and foremost. The talent is there to play flowing football, so use it!

So, I hope I’m wrong but I think Blanc will field this team:

I’d much rather see:

I’m not a huge Alou Diarra fan. He’s big and physical, yet awkward and one-dimensional. He concedes too many fouls–you know he’ll be good for a rash yellow card challenge at some point in these 2 games (if he plays!).

I’d much rather see M’Vila shield the defence on his own. His tackling stats and passing rates are fantastic—check out Andrew’s piece here at whoscored.com http://bit.ly/q6v0nl!

Valbuena looks like a no-brainer to start. He was unstoppable vs Lille and has played very well for France. He’s got that knack for attracting fouls and his pace will be an asset in the Balkans. If Blanc carries out his proposal of a different starting lineup, Martin seems most likely to miss out. But there were some interesting things developing between him and Nasri vs Chile. With Nasri looking refreshed with Man City, I’d love to see what these two can do together. Finally, I’d have no problem with Malouda warming the bench in favour of Ribéry. I realise it’s a bit of a gamble but Malouda has just looked so abject when playing for France. Ribéry is chomping at the bit.

No need to waste screen space on the forwards (but I will), it’s all Benzema, all the time! He’s in the form of his life and although he didn’t score in Madrid’s 6-0 demolition of Saragossa, the match report actually said he said he was “hard-working”—cue gasps! That’s when you know the boy is motivated like never before! I’d love for Gameiro to get meaningful substitution appearances though, as he too is in some fine form. Could France finally have that reliable second striker?

Predictions

If Blanc does sacrifice creativity for possession, then I think France will pay for it in the score line. Not a loss of course, but a tight result. 1-0 or 2-0 vsAlbania—surely the defence will be good enough for a clean sheet??

Vs Romania though, a defensive lineup could result in a tighter scoreline—2-1. But, I’ll revise that over the weekend 🙂

Final beef

@ESPNTVUK this is for you…

I was very disappointed to see that while ESPN UK supposedly has a contract to show the France Euro 2012 Qualifying matches, they are showing neither game! Up to now, they’ve alternated showing France or Germany live with the other team being shown as-live directly after. This is an acceptable compromise for HD quality football. However, this time, I find that on Friday, only Germany v Austria is being shown. Instead of a second game, there will be darts. DARTS?! SERIOUSLY?!

As if to rub salt in my wounds…a qualifier is being shown Saturday morning. Italy taking on the mighty Faroes is sure to be a set-your-alarm-clock-thriller. Moving on to Tuesday, Romania-France (a pretty decent game I think) is being ditched in favour of Denmark v Norway and then Turkey v Austra. I despair.

Now, there are over 300 000 Frenchies living in London alone–so I really do not see why these games are being ignored. If anyone can point to me a feed for the Albania game, I’d much appreciate it!