FEW outside Kabul are as powerful as the governor of Balkh, a province in northern Afghanistan. Win an audience with Atta Mohammad Noor and you are left in little doubt of his status. He receives guests from a golden throne at the end of a long hall hung with chandeliers. His word exerts iron control over the provincial capital, Mazar-i-Sharif, and to Hairatan, the nearby, lucrative border with Uzbekistan.

A former schoolteacher, he is better known as Ustad Atta. Officially beholden to Kabul and appointed by the president, Hamid Karzai, in practice he is his own man, a potentate of the north with huge wealth and carefully consolidated support. Among Afghan provincial governors, he enjoys an unrivalled degree of autonomy. Ahead of a presidential election next year, when Mr Karzai stands down, speculation is growing that Ustad Atta will prove to be the kingmaker.

He is clearly a survivor. An ethnic Tajik, he first fought the Soviet Union after its invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and then the Taliban, as a part of Ahmad Shah Massoud’s mujahideen. By 2001 and the American unseating of the Taliban, he was one of the most senior Northern Alliance commanders. Able to co-opt or outwit alliance rivals, he knew how to build a power base. By ditching robes and a chest-length beard for Western suits, and swapping tanks for trade, he also won the favour of donors. By 2004 he was governor. Mazar-i-Sharif has flourished. Far from the Taliban’s southern heartlands, it has suffered less than elsewhere from their violent resurgence. Balkh’s well-irrigated fields grow cotton, grain and fruit, while mills and factories produce flour and textiles. The city itself, long a destination for pilgrims to the reputed tomb of the Prophet’s son-in-law, these days thrives as a transit and supply hub. Just 80km (50 miles) from the Uzbek border, trade is boosted by NATO’s northern supply route, which arrives after snaking across the Central Asian steppe. (The Soviet Union, too, used the city to ship in military kit). Official imports worth $730m crossed from Uzbekistan last year. More trade beckons. A new 80km spur links the city to Central Asia’s rail network. The local airport will soon welcome flights from Dubai, Turkey and India. All this has stimulated a construction boom. The city centre is currently being dug up to create a subterranean shopping centre. Bestriding this landscape is Mr Atta. Business rivals claim his wealth comes from taking a cut from every major enterprise. Others say he supports his business ventures with the use of force. He rejects both accusations. But his strength is undeniable. In 2009, in the latest election, he alone among the country’s 34 governors dared to back and help bankroll Mr Karzai’s presidential rival, Abdullah Abdullah.

Mr Karzai has since made veiled criticisms, referring to powerful figures in the north who steal land or withhold customs revenue. But well aware of Mr Atta’s popularity and of the relative calm and prosperity of the province, he has not dared go further by firing the governor.

Now Mr Atta is again in the spotlight. Earlier this year three other heavyweights—Ahmad Zia Masoud, Abdul Rashid Dostum and Mohammad Mohaqeq—said they would back him if he ran for Mr Karzai’s job. He stopped short of announcing his candidacy, but said he would run if other candidates were unsatisfactory.

Soon afterwards, state-run television said Mr Atta had visited Kabul to give “explanations” about his recent remarks. Back in his stronghold he makes light of any rift with the president. “Right now our relations are good. There are no challenges between us,” he says, before stressing the political clout of his northern block and repeating that he would run for the presidency if he saw the country heading towards a crisis next year.

Getting to the top job, however, may prove a step too far. He might well not take to the uncertain world of Kabul intrigues. Nor, for all the momentum he could generate in the north, is it clear he would get crucial backing in the Pushtun-dominated south of Afghanistan. Tellingly, a close friend says he speaks almost no Pushtu.

His ambition may be for a lesser but still powerful position, perhaps as vice-president or as a kingmaker in the election. A Western official says that anyone with political aspirations is running to his door. Expect Ustad Atta’s throne room to be crammed with many more hopefuls over the coming year.