The House is slated to vote on the GOP-drafted measure on Thursday, and leadership has expressed hope the bill will earn a majority of votes — despite uniform Democratic opposition and GOP dissension on the party’s ideological edges. | Getty Poll: Approval wanes for GOP health bill

Support for the GOP proposal to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law is fading, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted just before an expected House vote on the legislation.

Voters are divided on the measure: Approval of the bill declined from 46 percent last week to 41 percent in the new poll, conducted last Thursday through Sunday. Disapproval, meanwhile, ticked up marginally, from 35 percent last week to 38 percent in the new survey. More voters, 22 percent, strongly disapprove of the bill than the 17 percent who strongly approve of it.


More than one in five voters, 22 percent, are undecided — a slight, 3-point increase since last week.

Republicans continue to support to bill: Sixty-two percent of GOP voters approve of the bill, while only 18 percent disapprove. And while Democratic opposition — 57 percent disapprove — lags Republicans’ backing, more Democrats strongly disapprove of the law, 40 percent, than Republicans strongly approve, 28 percent.

The House is slated to vote on the GOP-drafted measure on Thursday, and leadership has expressed hope the bill will earn a majority of votes — despite uniform Democratic opposition and GOP dissension on the party’s ideological edges, especially its conservative wing.

Voters are rankled by the House GOP’s compressed timeline. A 43 percent plurality say congressional Republicans “are moving too fast and need to take more time to examine other proposals.” Only 18 percent say “health care reform needs to be passed as soon as possible,” and 17 percent think Republicans “are going about the right speed on health care reform.”

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll continues to show approval of the bill is narrowly greater than disapproval, but other surveys show far more respondents oppose the legislation than support it. Unlike the other polls, the POLITICO/Morning Consult survey does not identify the new proposal as a Republican effort.

The survey does show some movement on other perceptions of the bill — mostly in more negative directions. Thirty-six percent of voters think the bill would make the health care system worse, up from 33 percent last week. The percentage who say it would make the system better declined, from 34 percent last week to 30 percent in the new poll.

Forty-four percent of voters say the bill would result in a decrease in the number of Americans with health insurance, up from 38 percent last week. Only 22 percent of voters think more Americans would have health insurance under the GOP bill.

The new survey was conducted before House Republicans released a number of minor changes to the bill on Monday night but after the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected that the bill would cut the deficit but result in tens of millions of fewer Americans on the insurance rolls.

"Not only has approval in the [American Health Care Act] decreased since the CBO score came out, Americans think Congress is moving too quickly on health care reform," said Morning Consult Co-founder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp. "Republicans in Congress are in a tough position right now, but our polling indicates that voters are willing to give them more time to get it right."

Perhaps as a result of the CBO score and other negative news stories, voters are becoming more skeptical that Republicans will succeed in repealing and replacing Obamacare. The percentage who say it’s “very” or “somewhat” likely the law will be repealed and replaced this year in the new poll is 62 percent, down from 74 percent a week ago.

Democratic voters also believe repeal is less certain. In the new poll, 59 percent say it’s either very or somewhat likely Republicans and President Donald Trump will repeal the law, down from 68 percent a week ago. But with Republicans controlling majorities in both congressional chambers, and Trump in the White House, Democrats in Congress can do little to influence the bill’s fate.

Debt reduction is one of the health care bill's most appealing aspects. Half of voters say it would make them much or somewhat more likely to support the bill if it reduced the federal deficit by $377 billion over the next decade, as the Congressional Budget Office projected when it evaluated the original version of the bill. Only a quarter said that debt reduction would make them less likely to support it.

But voters are rejecting the bill’s projected reduction in the number of Americans with health insurance, the poll shows. Told that the CBO estimates 14 million fewer Americans would have health insurance next year if the bill is enacted, 52 percent say it would make them less likely to support it. And moving out to the projection that 24 million fewer people would have insurance over the next decade, 53 percent say that figure makes them less likely to support the bill.

Prescription Pulse A weekly briefing on pharmaceutical policy news — in your inbox. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Voters remain divided on the existing health care law. Asked about the Affordable Care Act, 46 percent approve, and 44 percent disapprove.

But, as with the new proposal, the percentage of voters who strongly disapprove of Obamacare, 27 percent, exceeds the 21 percent who strongly approve.

The legislative process hasn’t yet taken a significant toll on voters’ views of Trump. Half of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, and 44 percent disapprove — results that are more positive for the president than other public polls.

The poll surveyed 1,927 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2mSeCl6 | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2o1W8Pp