After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters

Due to their limited resources, the Rays have been compelled to search for value in places where it isn’t readily apparent. These financial constraints, for example, led pretty directly to the phenomenon known as Ben Zobrist, Improbable Superstar. The ascent of Kevin Kiermaier (502 PA, 4.2 zWAR) is almost equally improbable as Zobrist’s, though. Selected in the 31st round of the 2010 draft out of Parkland College, Kiermaier has now averaged more than four wins per season over his first three major-league campaigns. Much of that value, of course, is a product of Kiermaier’s defensive acumen. ZiPS calls for more of the same in that regard, projecting Kiermaier to save 17 more runs than the average center fielder.

With the exception of Evan Longoria (658, 3.9), unfortunately, the club doesn’t currently employ any field players who profile as anything much better than average — and the short-term prognosis for newly acquired Wilson Ramos (465, 2.5), one of only four batters who receives a forecast for more than two wins, is uncertain in light of the season-ending injury he suffered at the end of 2016.

Pitchers

Please note, while regarding the depth-chart image below, that the members of the Rays’ starting rotation are arranged in order of projected WAR, not in the order they’re likely to be deployed by manager Kevin Cash. Here’s why such a note is relevant: owing to his youth and relative inexperience, left-hander Blake Snell (148.0 IP, 2.5 zWAR) isn’t expected to enter the 2017 season as Tampa Bay’s No. 3 starter. That he’s qualifed to fill such a role, however, is an argument one could make based on the numbers produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer. Another argument one could make is that Chris Archer (195.1, 4.1) is more likely to resemble the 2015, and not 2016, version of himself this next year.

The Rays bullpen produced the second-fewest collective wins in the league last year by the version of WAR calculated with fielding-independent pitching (FIP-WAR) and finished among the bottom third of all clubs by the version of WAR calculated with runs allowed (RA9-WAR). That’s poor. While the group here doesn’t seem to profile as obviously elite, they do look something much closer to average than their 2016 numbers would suggest. Alex Colome (61.1, 1.0) receives the top projection.

Bench/Prospects

First baseman Jake Bauers (581 PA, 1.6 zWAR) enters just his age-21 season, but possesses the top projection among all Tampa Bay field players unlikely to appear in the club’s starting lineup. Like Bauers, infielders Willy Adames (534, 1.2) and Daniel Robertson (475, 1.3) also have recorded zero plate appearances. Per ZiPS, however, they already offer the value of a competent major-league bench player.

Among pitchers, Matt Andriese (143.0 IP, 2.3 zWAR) receives a distinctly positive forecast — that of a slightly above-average starter — for a player who both (a) recorded a considerable quantity of innings this past year but (b) is nevertheless likely to begin this next year at Triple-A. He provides excellent depth for the rotation. Right-hander Brent Honeywell (127.1, 1.0) earns the top WAR projections among pitching prospects. He spoke with Eno Sarris at the Arizona Fall League about his screwball.

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.