Last time we met Atlanta United 2 – which wasn’t particularly long ago – Nashville SC was in a position that’s actually pretty similar to the one they find themselves in today: struggling. The win over ATL UTD 2 less than a month ago came easily, but didn’t change momentum for the better. Will we see more of the same tonight?

The essentials

Opponent: Atlanta United 2 (3-9-6, 20 GF, 39 GA so far in 2018, 15th in USL East, 15th in USL East Power Ratings and 29th in combined-table Pure Power)

The Line: Nashville SC -189, Draw +287, Atlanta United 2 +437

Time, Location: 7:30 p.m. CDT • First Tennessee Park

Event: USL Regular season

Weather: 85ºF, 0% chance of rain, 50% humidity, 7 MPH Northerly winds

Watch: In person! Locally on MyTV30, stream with a subscription to ESPN+. See the list of soccer bars in Nashville if you want to watch remotely.

Listen: Locally on 94.9 Game2 in English, 96.7 El Jefe FM en Español.

Tailgate: With the Assembly and Eastern Front SG at Von Elrod’s, with The Roadies at Pastime. Music City Supporters at Germantown Depot.

Follow: @NashvilleSC, @ClubCountryUSA, USL gametracker page, @ATLUTD2, #NSHvATL

Etc.: Shrug emoji

Elsewhere: Speedway Soccer‘s latest ep includes a preview.

Atlanta United 2

I’ll start with what I wrote last time:

[The honor of being a key player] goes to folks like Jon Gallagher (also signed to Atlanta United, but with zero appearances for the A-team), who leads the team with five goals and has also added an assist. He’s among the squad’s leaders in minutes, as well, starting 11 of the 14 games to dates as a forward. Mikey Ambrose is an MLS loanee and Laurent Kissiedou a USL guy, and they’re the only non-Gallaghers with more than one goal (each with two). While this team is sort of a copy of the MLS team, they clearly don’t have the ability to actually score like the Five Stripes do, and they’re much leakier at the back than the parent club – which has that reputation but actually is fairly stout on D. 26-year old Jack Metcalf is a pure USL signing, and he’s got just a seven-minute lead in game action on midfielder Oliver Shannon (who is 22, an MLS signing who’s on a season-long loan to the B-side). Andrew Kendall-Moulin is only 23, but another pure USL guy, paired with AJ Cochran who is just 25 but signed to the USL team himself. That duo leads the team by a wide margin in clearances. One interesting thing to watch? Whether we see some players who have already taken the pitch art First Tennessee Park. Some players who have moved down to the USL team (or were temporarily brought up from it) since the Feb. 10 friendly against Atlanta United could be available, and even Romario Williams, who scored for the Five Stripes in that one, has spent some time with the USL team – though of course, we’re not expecting to see him.

The things I excised? A lot about Andrew Carleston and Chris Goslin, mostly. Both were named to the 23-man squad last game, but didn’t make the trip. I wouldn’t expect them to this time either, especially given that Carleton got his first-ever MLS start over the weekend. He’s with the big guys now.

The Boys in Gold

That’s good for Nashville, because this is going to be a shooooooort-handed team. London Woodberry will serve his red-card suspension, Bradley Bourgeois will miss the game with injury, and a trio of other regular starters are questionable.

Lebo Moloto didn’t see the field against Ottawa, and now we know why (hamstring injury). Michael Reed left the Ottawa game with a foot injury, while Matt Pickens suffered a back injury late in the contest, but was able to (or had to, because Nashville was out of substitutions) finish it.

Fortunately, the other thing that made the team short-handed against Ottawa – Bolu Akinyode and Ropapa Mensah’s unavailability for international travel – should help paper over a couple of those issues. Not all of ’em, though, and there’s going to be quite the interesting puzzle for Gary Smith to solve, particularly at centerback, where the absences of Bourgeois and Woodberry take the only two remaining righties off the pitch.

Nashville needs to get right with another big win over Atlanta – anything less than seven points from the three-game stretch they’re in the middle of is disappointing, and they’ve already dropped to a maximum of six available – but they’ll have to do it with a lineup that’s not fully healthy.

Projected lineups

NSC’s look is going to be… interesting. As mentioned above centerback is the big question:

“You just mentioned they don’t have enough centerbacks, why would you expect them to use a formation that uses more of them?” you ask. Playing with five at the back allows them to 1) put more lefties on the field (which they have plenty of) and 2) play guys in the middle who aren’t necessarily true centerbacks in the classic sense.

Playing five at the back would also give a little more cover to CJ Cochran, who I expect will give Matt Pickens his first regular-season rest of the year – you don’t want to mess around with back injuries. Since Cochran is in pretty good form from his time with Fresno FC, it’s not like you’re bringing a guy in cold off the bench, either. Winn as a 10 is something I’ve wanted to see for a while, and we’ve come a little closer recently with time playing a true forward position.

When you have to scramble things up just a bit, it starts to get weird. For the record, I think it’s more likely that Gary Smith does stay with a bit more of a 4-4-1-1 formation, but for the life of me I couldn’t figure out a way to make it work with available personnel (without playing guys out of position in a way that is more risky than playing several at the back), so here we are.

Predictions

For all the sudden MASH unit that Nashville SC has become, they’re still playing a team that’s pretty poor when it doesn’t have the MLS talent available to it.

Ropapa Mensah scores a first-half brace. This inevitably increases the drumbeat for him to become a starter (and while I disagree that it’s the best use of his talents, certainly he has to get onto the field more).

Brandon Allen adds the insurance goal shortly after the halftime break on an assist from Alan Winn.

That said… Nashville SC needs all three goals, because they give up some pointage to an Atlanta team that can score pretty well despite its overall failings. ATL UTD 2 cuts the lead to 2-1 just before the half, and then to 3-2 around the 70th minute.

Your NSC subs: Jome replaces Washington, Hume replaces Mensah, Shroot or McGrath replaces Winn. Those are in escalating order of “this is a sub that will likely make sense for a game situation” and “gotta get the guy coming off some rest.”

Nashville SC wins, 3-2. I could also see them packing it in and trying to get like a 1-0 result, but with the way Atlanta can score (and also can’t stop opponents from scoring), it’s probably better to be proactive on a banged-up defensive group.