TOKYO -- The prompt resignation of Japan's economy minister in response to graft allegations appears to have helped minimize the political fallout, with public support for the government trending higher.

The approval rating of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet stood at 47% in a poll conducted by The Nikkei on Jan. 22 through 24, right after weekly magazine Shukan Bunshun charged that Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Akira Amari's office had taken bribes from a construction company. Support was on a par with December levels. But the rates rose in separate polls conducted by three other leading news outlets on Saturday and Sunday, after Amari had stepped down.

The minister's surprise resignation likely muted the backlash for the government, market sources and ruling and opposition party members say. Though the allegations remain, Amari's resignation "managed to bring the matter quickly under control amid speculation that Abe would keep his confidant on board," a midlevel LDP lawmaker said. He resigned before the opposition camp had a chance to grill him on the matter, depriving it of an opportunity to score political points.

That Shukan Bunshun had exclusive access to the whistleblower limited follow-up coverage, minimizing the damage to the government.

Distractions

Other factors also worked to the government's advantage. The stock market's slide since the start of this year helped direct attention to dangers overseas, such as China's economic instability and plummeting oil prices, and away from criticism of Abe's signature economic policies.

"The Bank of Japan's well-timed decision to introduce negative interest rates" on Friday, a day after Amari's resignation, "and the accompanying surge in the stock market and weakening of the yen also did much" to steal away the focus, said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities. "Abenomics was not necessarily re-evaluated," Ueno said. But the central bank's move nonetheless made a large splash, signaling the government and central bank's unity in the mission to defeat deflation, market players noted.

The government also scored points with the public for the year-end deal with South Korea to settle the issue of wartime "comfort women." "Rising support for the government in the wake of the accord and the blow from the Amari scandal likely canceled one another out in certain respects," said Yukio Maeda of the University of Tokyo.

"Other sensational stories, including news that popular group SMAP will stay together, did much to overshadow the Amari affair" as well, Harukata Takenaka of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies said. Shukan Bunshun itself carried allegations of infidelity by a popular entertainer alongside the accusations against Amari, drawing the focus away from the political scandal.

Aiding the enemy

Support of the Abe government has faltered before, tumbling 9 percentage points last July as debate in the Diet over controversial security legislation neared an end. The October 2014 resignation of ministers Yuko Obuchi and Midori Matsushima shaved 12 points from the government's approval rating, which had hit 60% following a cabinet reshuffling two months earlier.

But weak support for the opposition is thought to provide a stable lower bound for approval of the Abe government, preventing major dives in public opinion. Japan's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan, continues to draw support in the single digits, unable to win over the 40% of Japanese who identify themselves as independent. While such voters do not actively support the Abe government, there is a good deal of passive approval of those in charge.

Yet the wind could still shift if new aspects of the Amari scandal come to light in Diet hearings or the media. Criticism of Abenomics could also see a resurgence if the government errs in its response to sliding stock prices and economic anxiety currently attributed to overseas factors. Though some in the government are breathing a sigh of relief that the Amari affair has been contained, further shocks could easily send public approval plummeting.

(Nikkei)