As Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court dissolves the post-revolution parliament and upholds Ahmed Shafik’s ability to run for president, Egypt’s “transition” to a more liberal government becomes concerning. This is an excellent real-time example of one of the great insights Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson provide in Why Nations Fail: when extractive institutions are not toppled and replaced, the new elite is likely to just take them over.

While the book offers revolutionary France as a transition to inclusive institutions — a movement that took at least 70 years (between the revolution and the foundation of the Third Republic) —, it is impossible to provide a blueprint for nations that have yet to accomplish this shift. What Acemoglu and Robinson do not really stress, though, is that these political transitions tend to be preceded by a growth in the merchant, or middle, class. And, those who lead the political movement are those of the middle class. They do mention something to this effect with regards to England (in-and-around the 1688 Glorious Revolution), but they do not elevate the place of the entrepreneur to its proper role.

Also important, political transitions require time. They are gradual. Sudden change inspires reaction. It is unsurprising that the Egyptian military has reacted to the successes of what they deem a radical movement: the political Islamic interests of radical parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood. I think one would be hard pressed to find an example of a sudden transition to modern liberal bureaucracy.