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Peace talks with the Taliban are at the center of public attention. Given the importance of peace, elections, and reconciliation, new Surveyquestions in 2019 ask Afghans what they might be willing to sacrifice to reach a peace deal, including the constitution, democratic elections, freedom of speech, and the presence of foreign military forces.

“Increased optimism around the peace talks along with persistent fears about insecurity and the economy continue to influence Afghan views,”said Abdullah Ahmadzai, The Asia Foundation’s country representative in Afghanistan. “Following the collapse of the talks and election delays (which took place after this year’s Survey fieldwork), prospects for a sustainable political settlement are unclear. More than ever, empirical data is a crucial resource for the future and development of Afghanistan.”

National mood influenced by this year’s peace talks

The Survey has shown over time that public optimism increases in any election year. In 2019, 36.1% of respondents say the country is going in the right direction, up slightly from 32.8% in 2018. Afghans who say the country is moving in the right direction cite improved security at 55.7% (up from 51.8% in 2018), and reconstruction/rebuilding/infrastructure at 48.6% (close to last year’s 47.9%). Aggregated among those who cite improved security (55.7%) are those who specifically say “peace/end of the war” (26.3%), a significant increase from 16.4% in 2018. At the same time, 58.2% of Afghans surveyed indicate it is moving the wrong direction, down slightly from 61.3% in 2018. Reasons for pessimism include insecurity/crime (74.7%), the economy (41.5%), and the state of governance (31.1%).