In the past two months I have been traveling through Europe, talking to academic and non-academic audiences all across the continent about populism. And from Norway to Italy and Hungary to Ireland, people have been asking me the same question: how is it possible that Americans still support President Donald Trump?

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After explaining that the vast majority of Americans do not support Trump, and that he was elected with almost 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton – because the United States is the only “democratic” country in the world where a person with fewer votes can win the presidency – I bring them the really bad news: if things continue this way, Trump will be comfortably re-elected in 2020.

Of course, the main reason for Trump’s re-election, as well as his election, is the dysfunctional political practice and system of the United States. Like in other western democracies, the white majority is overrepresented because minorities vote at much lower levels. However, unlike in most other democracies, various types of old and new acts of voter suppression actively discourage the electoral participation of non-white minorities. On top of that, gerrymandering further strengthens the disproportionate power of the white electorate, particularly in the conservative rural areas of the individual states and the country as a whole.



But all of this does not explain why Trump is actually quite popular – and probably more popular than he was when he got elected. Today, Trump’s approval ratings are at 42%, which is a mere 3% lower than when he started. But more importantly, he is extremely popular among his core electorate, ie Republicans. A recent Gallup poll showed that, at the 500 days mark, Trump was the second most popular US president among his own constituency (87% support), only topped by President George W Bush (96% support), who was at that time profiting from the rally around the flag response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks!

But how is this possible, I hear you think? Has Trump not said that there were “very fine people” among the extreme-right demonstrators at the deadly “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia? Has he not consistently undermined the independent judiciary and media by attacking “so-called judges” and “the ‘Fakers’ at CNN, NBC, ABC & CBS”? Has he not systematically dehumanized immigrants and minorities, introduced nativist policies such as a (slightly watered-down) “Muslim ban”, and made the immigration services into an inhuman authoritarian apparatus that separates crying and screaming children from their parents?

Yes, he has. But he has also give a significant tax cut which disproportionately benefits above-average-income Americans, the true core of the Republican, and therefore Trump, electorate. And for many Republicans, if they get a tax break, you can do little to no wrong. Moreover, he is rapidly dismantling the state, by deregulating industries and defunding regulation agencies, which satisfies most of the usual Republican mega-donors – including former anti-Trumpists like the Koch brothers.

For the Christian right, he has appointed the staunchly anti-abortion Neil Gorsuch to the supreme court and moved the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This more than compensates for all his scandals with porn stars and bragging about pussy-grabbing. And given that he will undoubtedly please them with another supreme court judge soon (to replace Anthony Kennedy), and another supreme court position is expected to open up after 2020 (Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 85), the Christian right will come out again en masse in the next presidential elections, to take solidify the conservative hold off the supreme court and ensure the overthrow, or irrelevance, of Roe v Wade.

Finally, the hardcore Trump base, the stereotypical white working-class male nativist, has been more than satisfied. Expecting little to nothing from politicians, Democratic or Republican, they see a president who tirelessly tries to ban non-white people (notably Central Americans and Muslims) from entering the country, introduces tariffs to allegedly protect US industries, and “owns the libs” at any occasions with “politically incorrect” and “taboo-breaking” speeches and tweets.

Trump opponents, inside and outside of the US, always bring up that many of his most blatant proposals have been struck down by the courts or watered down in Congress. But rather than weakening Trump, this only strengthens him. This proves to his supporters that the system is indeed broken, just as Trump says, and that the will of the people is thwarted by corrupt elites in politics and “the deep state” within the broader bureaucracy. Hence, a second term is necessary to ensure that Trump can actually do what he has promised and tried to do.

There is a silver lining though, even if it is thin. The vast majority of Americans still oppose Trump, in terms of his personality, policies and rhetoric. So far, they have not found a national voice, however. While Democrats have picked up seats in many local and state elections, and progressives are beating liberals in more and more important (primary) races, the national Democratic party has gone awol since the shock 2016 defeat and thinks that a combination of identity politics for non-white Americans and Russiagate for their white base will do the trick. It doesn’t and it won’t.

But the 2020 presidential elections are still more than two years away. That is a long time in politics and an eternity in the Trump era. There might still be enough time for the national Democratic party to get their act together and become the voice of the silent majority, which is currently completely overshouted by Trump’s loud minority.