Everyone just assumes the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to re-sign Connor Brown.

From assurances it will get done soon, suspicion it is already done and pending a corresponding roster move, blind assumption that the deal is imminent and fretful anxiety over the whole thing, the Connor Brown Toronto Maple Leafs contract situation is taking on a level of drama not seen since the Frank Corrado situation.

Brown is a fan favorite. His 14 5v5 goals him 62nd overall in the NHL (that’s only two per team, so it’s better than it sounds). it’s the same amount as Phil Kessel, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Seguin and Alex Ovechkin. He had 20 overall as a rookie and his future looks bright.

While all this sounds good, there are a couple of caveats about Brown’s game. 1) While he seems to get labeled a defensive forward, there is no real evidence to support this. He has a slightly better shots-against /60 than his team, but there is no evidence that the team is gets significantly better when he’s on the ice.

2) His CF% was a respectable 50% but he was a negative CF relative to his teammates, and his CF dropped when away from Kadri, his most common linemate.

3) Brown’s shooting percentage was 12.5% where as Phil Kessel was 8.86% Ovechkin was 7.25% Basically Brown is unlikely to maintain his 5v5 goal pace, or his overall pace.

This is not to say Connor Brown is a bad player. He is a good player, and I am a fan of his. I am a fan because he scores goals and is a home-town drafted and developed player. But I think these facts are causing us to collectively overrate Brown and what he can do in the NHL.

Locking him up for seven years might not actually be the best idea. He’s good and all, but the Toronto Maple Leafs already have four forwards who project to be better and who will all need to eventually be signed.

The Best Move Might Be To Trade Brown

It’s not a popular idea, but it might make the most sense. Obviously the value of James van Riemsdyk isn’t what we thought or hoped it would be. As seen by the rejection of a straight up JVR for Hamonic trade earlier this summer, and by the Capitals and Oilers giving away arguably better left-wingers for pennies on the dollar.

Due to his youth, up-side and sub $4 million cap hit (one assumes) Brown might have more trade value than JVR. Him hitting the 20 goal mark will also probably inflate his value. Add in the Leafs cap pinch, the future cap ramifications and the glaringly obvious fact that the Leafs have two or three too many wingers as is, and that’s before anyone at Camp even auditions.

Adding to Brown’s value is that rebuilding teams might want him. Teams like the Canucks who have Chris Tanev – a player who should be the Leafs #1 trade target, in my opinion. You can’t trade JVR to the Canucks without involving a third team, and when was the last time hockey experienced a three-way trade?

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But Brown could conceivably be the centerpiece of a package that lands Chris Tanev or a player like him.

Everyone assumes Brown will be signed. But trading him might be the better option. You can’t get better without giving something up. The fact is, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be wasting one of their best chances to compete for a Stanley Cup this year, if they stick with their current roster. It’s the last year all three of Nylander, Marner and Matthews will be cheap. Keeping JVR over Brown makes the Leafs a better team (at least this year).

Trading Brown solves the winger problem, it solves a cap problem and it likely makes the Toronto Maple Leafs a better team.

All stats from stats.hockey.analysis.com