I think it’s fair to say that even though we lost with last week’s pick, we did get the value. The odds on our Arsenal bet dropped from 2.00 (when we got on) to around 1.65 before kick-off. That means you could have easily traded out on Betfair for a no-risk profit. In any case, considering the number of chances and penalty shouts the bet was unlucky to lose.

This Week’s Pick: Stoke City – Aston Villa

Stoke City are rather inconsistent at home this season, but this week they face the worst team in the league.

Aston Villa seem destined for relegation and the club hit rock bottom when they lost 0:6 against Liverpool at home. The atmosphere at the club is abysmal, the fans are unhappy, the players lack motivation and even the most optimistic Villa supporters know they won’t be avoiding the drop this time around.

Before the Liverpool disaster they did manage to string a few decent results together, but their form away from home is pretty bad. Even the likes of Norwich and Sunderland managed to beat them and I expect more of the same this Saturday.

In terms of team news, the Villains won’t have Jordan Ayew, Jack Grealish and Carlos Sanches as well as long-term injured Kozak and Traore. Stoke will miss lots of defenders including skipper Ryan Shawcross, but Arnautovic is expected to start this match.

The Pick

The Stoke win seems like the obvious choice here and thanks to the inconsistency of the home team, the price seems higher than one would expect. Stoke are just the better squad in general and the morale in Aston Villa is as low as it gets. They look like a team that doesn’t believe it can stay up and I feel there will be more embarrassing moments till the end of the season.

Market: Stoke -0.75 Asian Handicap

Odds: About 1.90 on Betfair

Stake: 10/10