"We'll hold off tax cuts to pay down this much debt! Nah, jokes." Finance Minister Bill English has lead the pack in throwing media off the scent ahead of the budget.

OPINION: Hang on Bill, it's in your budget. At least let the ink dry, before doing another about-turn ...

Every year, politicos tie themselves in knots trying to predict what's in the budget.

For what? We all eventually find out, when the Government just tells us.

But a game has formed and it's fun to play. In the leadup, Key and English are the quiz masters.

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* Budget 2016 by the numbers

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A red-herring here, a quizzical look there: "Are you sure you want to lock that in?"

What was never questioned in the lead-up to the budget, was whether there would be a centrepiece to it at all.

We'd become so used to this Government magicking an outside-the-box (typically slightly left of centre) showpiece, it was the budgets in years gone before that turned out to be the biggest hoodwink of them all.

So here are five things ministers said to throw us off the scent: (with a success score out of 5)

1. "I wouldn't want to speculate, you'll have to wait and see." – Bill English fielding questions on whether an extension to Paid Parental leave would be in the budget. (1/5)

English gets a mark for thoroughly duping Labour's Sue Moroney. On this one however, most in the know could see the Government would not go through the ignominy of vetoing a bill to extend paid parental leave, and fork out for it in the budget.

2. "He's not the Minister of Social Housing, I am." – Paula Bennett denying she blindsided Bill English when she announced homeless families in Auckland could receive up to $5000 to move to the regions. (3/5)

This was the most entertaining quote from a wider discussion around how much the budget would focus on housing. In the end, it showed the Government was listening to people under pressure, and many thought perhaps they'd heard enough to give more to the crisis (yes, crisis) in the budget.

They got us there.

3. "Another portion of spending previously earmarked for Budget 2017 has been used to reduce government debt, to help reach the 2020 debt target." – Bill English again, quelling any hope of tax cuts this year. (1/5)

They're coming somewhere along the line. And they will - there's no way a Government can head into an election year with a forecast $2.5b surplus and not promise them.

4. "Oh, about $3 billion." – John Key, speculating on how much he reckons the Government would need for a tax cut package. (4/5)

This was the real hoodwink, the day after English's speech, and left many genuinely wondering: 'so which is it?'. Was it Key being loose-lipped, or just 'bouncing from cloud to cloud', as his Finance Minister once characterised him?

5. "We would like to see some tax reductions, particularly for those sort of middle income taxpayers who find themselves getting into higher tax brackets." – Bill English implying the Government's debt reduction plan is not set in stone. (4/5)

Well hang on Bill, it's in your budget. It took him less than 24 hours to loosen up debt repayment for possible tax cuts again. It's not surprising, there's an election next year.

Where he hoodwinked the lot of us is, we thought he'd at least let the ink dry, before doing another about-turn.