Sauder School of Business

Prediction Markets

British Columbia Provincial Election 2017

Election Date: Tuesday, May 9, 2017.

The election is over. Markets are closed.

Final Predictions, Election Day, May 9, 2017

Trading Statistics for the Final Day of Trading, May 8, 2017

Market Liquidation Information (updated June 5, 2017) The three markets for the B.C. provincial election 2017 have matured and have been liquidated today. The final count has not been further challenged through judicial recounts, and thus the final count as announced by Elections BC is final for the purposes of liquidating the prediciton markets. The ultimate outcome, a 43-41-3 hung parliament, means that the majority market contract on "All Other Outcomes" won. For details about the process of liquidating the prediction markets, please refer to our policies page for more information on rules governing market liquidation. Also see section 1.5 "Contract Liquidation" in the user guide for traders. Please watch this space for further updates.

How did we do? [updated May 24, 2017]

The predictions from the markets for the popular vote were the most accurate and outperformed all five polls with their latest predictions in the days beefore the election. At this point, it looks as if the predictio market is at par with the prediction from the CBC Poll Tracker, although this result may still change dependin on the outcome of the recounts. How our traders performed with respect to the majority government prediction is still uncertain as well. Our traders predcited a roughly 80% probability of a liberal majority or a hung parliament, and either of these two outcomes is still possible at this point, while an NDP majority is out of reach. Overall, traders on the Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets did very well.

Comparison of Popular Vote Share Predictions LIB NDP GRN OTR Error1 Election Result 40.4 40.3 16.8 2.5 — Prediction Markets 41.8 38.9 16.8 2.5 2.8 CBC Poll Tracker2 39.9 39.4 18 2.7 2.8 Insights West/CTV (May 5-8) 41 41 17 1 3.0 Ipsos/Global News (May 4-6) 39 40 17 4 3.4 Mainstreet Research/Postmedia (May 5-6) 39 40 20 1 6.4 Justason Market Intelligence (May 1-7) 38 36 23 3 13.4 Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors. 2 provided by Eric Grenier (CBC Poll Tracker 2017 British Columbia election).

Comparison of Seats Share Predictions LIB NDP GRN OTR Error1 Election Result 43 41 3 0 — Prediction Markets 43 39 5 0 4.0 CBC Poll Tracker2 45 40 2 0 4.0 Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors. 2 provided byEric Grenier.

Official Election Information

Political Parties

Other Useful Information Sources About the Election