While the bubble splits in three, people are holding their breath for the next global conflict

– RNN –

Since Galnet began its weekly ratings of the top 10 influential factions in June, politics have never been such a popular topic of discussion. There is no doubt that 3301 will be remembered for the spectacular inflation in territorial influence those ten leaders and their ideals gained. As a result, most civilized space now appears to have taken a pledge of allegiance. A phenomenon we might not encounter in the near future and that was triggered by many factors, namely ideological rivalries reaching a historic high.

Three great faction leaders stood out during last year’s boom in expansion. They are those that benefited from proposing the most popular ideologies as well as having the largest pool of followers: Prime Minister Edmund Mahon’s Alliance, Federation President Zachary Hudson’s Republican Party and Senator then Emperor Arissa Lavigny-Duval’s Movement for Imperial Justice, all of which scored throughout the year the highest average in influence ratings according to Galnet’s political rating agency. Even though many political victories were won waving the peaceful flag of neutrality (Mahon’s policies being a prime example), most were shaped by conflicts in an increasingly polarized world.

It all began with Hudson and his Federal counterpart, Shadow President Felicia Winters, together forming the Federation block in response to Lavigny making a similar pledge with her three Imperial allies: Senator Denton Patreus, Princess Aisling Duval and Zemina Torval. The Federation-Empire conflict was brought to an even larger scale when the Emperor had declared war against Archon Delaine’s Kumo Crew in an attempt to curb piracy in the Pegasi Sector: a situation that has matured in favor of the warlord following non-agression agreement reached with the Federals. Sirius too, though more implicitly, became part of this conflict by being an essential provider of war assets and by finding itself meddling in repeated diplomatic crises with the Federation.

Nothing surprising so far, given a lust from both blocks for the use of military power and the prominent position the two leaders hold (not to mention the controversial death of their predecessor). It wasn’t until June however that both Hudson and Lavigny entered head on in a conflict of territory, sometimes taking war-like appearances. Oddly enough, neither have appeared to publicly mention these struggles. Many feel such is the case because doing so would be akin to admitting responsibility.

What unanimously shocked analysts however was the turn of events. At first most predicted with confidence that Lavigny would consolidate her grip as the most influential leader for the foreseeable future while Hudson would sink: it now appears Mahon is the one promised for long-term dominance, with Hudson (and Winters) more or less established for second while Lavigny had to settle with third.

Perhaps it was foolish not to expect the Hudson-Lavigny superpowers at the top: after all, what makes them successful leaders relies on the same old recipe: a violent past that perpetuates a tradition of hate, an unequivocally expansionist agenda, the borderline nationalist mentality of their many followers, a vast, successful economy that hires many military contractors, and the will to use these forces to inflict punitive and lethal blows.

Despite the strong support from their followers, it is this very violent approach that is causing them to suffer of having among the most unstable borders, and explains why, with (almost) no-one to oppose them, the Alliance’s influence is now skyrocketing beyond reach. Systems that had pledged their full support to either block have been subject to enormous spikes in criminal activity, at first targeted against official vessels carrying shipments to and from headquarter systems, leaving the inhabitants somewhat unaffected. Now however, evidences linking raids against local authority vessels to leaders’ attempts at destabilizing unpractical governments are piling up, a phenomenon that has caused an all time record in the amount of civil wars and regime changes.

The Federation strikes back

Hudson’s rise to second wasn’t entirely due to its aggressive rhetoric. In fact, both him and the Emperor have shown similar dedication to undermine each others’ efforts. What made the difference between second and third was their expansion strategy: while the Republican Party was struggling to consolidate stability, Lavigny had much more assets to dedicate for expanding to newer systems. This was a time when the Empire expansion machine was deemed nearly unstoppable, and here lied the problem: among Lavigny’s (a senator back then) high ranking officials, many had vested interests to expand into systems excessively costly to maintain. An astonishingly vast Command Capital set in motion a bubble in which many poor choices were made. While the Emperor was accumulating expensive systems to run, Hudson was faced with the reality of large scale Imperial attacks, forcing his party to develop efficient strategies to fortify its assets from foreign incursions.

The consequences became clear after the long battle for AF Leporis. Both had shown identical resolve at establishing their influence over this system: each had spent an estimate of three billion credits for the preparatory phase. Following Lavigny’s initial victory, and a vast campaign to cleanse the system from corrupt entities, a spectacular wave of sabotaging led by Winters then later by Hudson (and perhaps with Delaine’s cooperation) devastated her entire dominion: despite massive efforts at mobilizing supplies to each and every control system, the bubble burst: revolt struck, and the campaign at AF Leporis had to be called off in order to bring back stability. A similar operation was undertaken against Hudson in retaliation but was unsuccessful and ultimately led the President to secure Leporis.

There is now a sense of fatality among Lavigny’s followers given that no matter how much she invests into protecting her real-estate, its integrity remains vulnerable to external pressure while Hudson can hope to fend off foreign incursions, should he dig deep enough in his pockets: this asymmetry ultimately results in him having more leverage than anybody else. Both of them have the fire-power required to destabilize vast arrays of space and both have shown their penchant to rely on violence in order to fulfill their political agenda; for now though, it seems the balance is tilting in the favor of the Federation.

Your hips lied after all

Expect to see in the coming year a focus on ensuring territorial stability by keeping the pressure high within key politic entourage: strikingly, certain internal and powerful lobbies have shown to be working with very little consideration to their leader’s interest while becoming increasingly influential, to the point they are currently causing great strain.

Lavigny in particular will need to push for more reforms on territorial management while dealing with Hudson and his allies’ recent switch of efforts towards contesting her assets. And while the arduous battle for HIP 44811 exemplifies this threat, it also stands as a landmark of what the cooperation between the Republicans and the Liberals can achieve.

Although the Empire itself has shown substantial commitment for inter-faction cooperation, notably in the Pegasi pirate war and more recently against the Federation, it would benefit from an overhaul as so far, their efforts have remained essentially fruitless.