October 23, 2013

GUZZARDI’S KNOCK-ONS

MAY KNOCK-OFF BERRIOS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

by RUSS STEWART

In England the slang phrase "knock me up" has a wholly different connotation than in America. Across the pond, as they say, it's an invitation to visit one's home. Here, it means buy a maternity wardrobe and arrange the baby shower.

For Will Guzzardi, "knock me up" means a job in Springfield. The Democratic candidate for state representative in the Northwest Side 39th Illinois House District reports that he "knocked up" roughly 13,000 doors during his underdog, under-the-radar 2012 campaign, losing to incumbent Democrat Toni Berrios by 125 votes. Now the "Knock Up Man" is back for a second crack, and he is employing the same technique.

Berrios, the daughter of clout-heavy Cook County Assessor Joe Berrios, who multi-tasks as the 31st Ward Democratic committeeman and county Democratic chairman, anointed her, then a 25-year-old psychology major at Northeastern Illinois University, to be a state representative, and she was, not surprisingly, unopposed in the primary. In Cook County politics, DNA matters.

Over the next decade Berrios distinguished herself by being resoundingly undistinguished and obscure. Since her father was a Board of Review commissioner, and since Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan's law firm made hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees by slicing corporations' property taxes before the board, and since those grateful corporations gave hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to Madigan, House Democrats, the state party and Joe Berrios, it was not unexpected that his daughter was just an insignificant cog in Madigan's Springfield machine, voting as she was told.

Never mind that every dollar slashed from commercial and industrial properties is appended onto residential properties. The Democrats are the party of "working families," especially the bosses' own families.

However, the greased wheel almost flew off the proverbial wagon in 2012. Guzzardi, a 24-year-old Internet journalist, a Logan Square resident and a recent North Carolina transplant, just 7 years out of high school, got a really odd idea in his head. What if I quit my job, campaign door-to-door 40 hours a week over 6 months, and meet and schmooze 4,000 voters? Can I win?

The answer was: you almost can. In a 2012 turnout of 7,917, Guzzardi amassed an amazing 3,896 votes, to 4,021 for Berrios. He was outspent almost 4-1. According to state disclosures, Guzzardi raised $124,072 in the year ending in June of 2012, while Berrios' committee raised $191,306, but that doesn't factor in the big bucks spent by Madigan, the state party, Joe Berrios and the 31st Ward Democrats, which was another $300,000. In the late stages of the campaign, voters were getting a mailing a day mauling Guzzardi for allegedly being a "Wall Street puppet," for taking money from companies which wanted to outsource jobs, for taking out-of-state donations, and for having "no roots" in the district.

In effect, the attacks portrayed Guzzardi, who proudly proclaims himself a progressive (formerly liberal), as some kind of bloated George Bush Republican. The attacks worked -- just barely.

However, Guzzardi proved that motivation and moxie can compete with money and manpower. His strategy was based on a simple premise, as trumpeted by those insipid phone company ads of the 1980s to "reach out and touch someone." He believed that a candidate's face and voice at the door, and rigorous follow-up, could withstand an army of precinct captains and a torrent of nasty mail.

Guzzardi's modus operandi was simple: 40 hours a week "knocking up" doors. Among political insiders, there are gradations of voters: "Hard D's," meaning households where one or more occupants voted in three of the past five Democratic primaries, "Soft D's," where somebody in the household voted Democratic in one of the past three primaries, and "No-No's," where nobody in the household voted. Of course, Hard-R's and Soft-R's (Republicans) are ignored. In a primary, all the "D's" are deluged with direct mail.

In a normal canvass, precinct workers try to elicit a plus or minus from every household (meaning, are they for or against your candidate?) and ignore non-registered voters. That means that on any block, 30 to 40 percent of households can be ignored. Guzzardi's strategy is contrary: He knocks on everybody's door. If they're non-citizens, he moves on, if they're not registered, he alerts his staff to get them registered, knowing that they won't be on Berrios' mailing list, and if they're registered, it's a bingo. How often does a voter actually see a candidate and have him or her ask for their vote?

As in 2012, Guzzardi's theme is forthright: Berrios "votes against the interests" of the 39th District, is a "political insider" who is "close to the speaker," who takes "big contributions" from those who want "tax breaks," and that it is "time for a change."

Specifically, Guzzardi faults Berrios for "voting to defund" Chicago's schools. According to the challenger, Berrios co-sponsored a bill for vouchers for private schools which "vastly decreases" funding for public schools. She also backed a bill to increase the Chicago Teachers Union's strike vote closings, which, he said, meant "more closings." The closings, which numbered more than 50, were "harmful to the neighborhoods," he said.

Guzzardi said that Berrios also backed the Performance Evaluation Reform Act, which requires that student achievement growth be incorporated as a "significant factor" in evaluations of school administrators and teachers. He said that heightened focus on standardized testing, which means that teachers must spend more prep time for the tests, which leaves less instructional time and "interfered with learning."

Guzzardi said that Berrios "showed disdain for working families and labor unions" by voting for Madigan's pension reform bill, which he said limited state employees' collective bargaining rights. He said that she also voted for "pension holidays" -- non-paid, non-working days.

But here is the stickler: Guzzardi may be a smiling face at the door, but he is a laser for somebody's wallet. I asked him how to solve Illinois' fiscal crisis. Unfunded pensions approach $100 billion, and Medicaid and other vendors are owed more than $5 billion.

Guzzardi's answer: Tax the rich more. He embraced a "progressive income tax" proposal broached by the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, which he said would raise $2.4 billion in state revenue. He said that, instead of the present flat 5 percent state income tax, a higher tax on the affluent would "cut state taxes on 94 percent of all taxpayers" earning less than $150,000, "eliminate structural deficits" of more than $7 billion, "create 36,000 new jobs," and still "keep the effective tax rate on millionaires at 4.3 percent." According to Guzzardi, we should not solve Illinois' fiscal mess "on the backs of working people." Sure, and the sun rises in the West.

Guzzardi was asked if he will be a cog in Madigan's wheel and a backer of Pat Governor Quinn. "I will organize a progressive caucus," he said. "I will not be marginalized."

Berrios believes that 2012 was an aberration, not a harbinger. "There were thousands of people who didn't know me," she said. As for why she should be elected to a seventh term, Berrios said that she cut her own salary and sponsored a moratorium on school closings. She said that the education "reforms" she supported were "negotiated and supported by education reform groups that represent our teachers and schools."

Berrios is not re-inventing herself. She is what she is. She says that she is a "strong voice for the people I represent." She is the chairman of the House Financial Institutions Committee, and she says that she "fights for the needs" of her constituents.

The outlook: Recent polling is contradictory. A recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America survey had Berrios leading 50-34 percent. Among Hispanic respondents, Berrios led 77-15. The district is roughly 55 Hispanic and 38 percent white. "That's nonsense," retorted Guzzardi. "Eighty percent of the people have not made up their minds this early."

Guzzardi's polling indicates that he is leading 38-30 percent, that a "deserve to be re-elected" puts Berrios at 28 to 52 percent, and that voters' recognition puts Berrios at 93 percent and Guzzardi at 58 percent. "Once voters know her record, they will not vote for her," he said.

The district encompasses nine Chicago wards -- the 1st, 26th, 30th, 31st, 35th, 38th and 45th -- and 82 precincts. The 2012 turnout of 7,917 will surely decline by a quarter in 2014, to under 6,000. During the 2012 campaign, Guzzardi got 3,896 votes and says he made 13,000 contacts. He predicts that between now and next March he will make another 8,000 contacts. "Team Berrios," in response, will inundate the district with tens of thousands of mailers.

My prediction: A sow's ear cannot be made into a silk purse. Toni Berrios narrowly won in 2012. She will spend $500,000 to get re-nominated in 2014 -- and she will fail.

Send e-mail to russ@russstewart. com or visit his Web site at www. russstewart.com.

