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As long as current social distancing measures remain in place for the next year, modelling data shows that Manitoba could see 6,250 cases of the novel coronavirus.

According to numbers released by the province Wednesday, Manitoba’s curve is much flatter than anticipated.

There has been one new case of the novel coronavirus reported in Manitoba, bringing the total to 273. In total, six people have died and 213 people have recovered. Five people remain in hospital and the current number of active COVID-19 cases is now at 54.

Highlights of the modelling data show that Manitoba has done a remarkable job keeping case numbers low.

If Manitoba had not done any physical distancing or travel restrictions, the province would have seen about 933 cases by April 25. But instead, there were 267 cases by that date.

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If the trend had continued, Manitoba would have been dealing with about 2,000 cases by May 15.

A graph showing the number of possible cases and the actual cases so far in Manitoba. Province of Manitoba

Hospital beds are also in good supply for the moment. There are currently 2,432 acute care medical and surgical hospital beds. As of April 26, 977 of these beds were vacant and available for COVID-19 patients, a 40 per cent vacancy rate.

Read the presentation made by the province here:

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Should they be needed, the province can add another 300 beds and 100 intensive care beds for COVID-19 patients. #glbwpg — Diana Foxall (@CJOBdiana) April 29, 2020

As of Tuesday, an additional 448 laboratory tests were performed. This brings the total number of tests performed in Manitoba since early February to 24,304.

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Modelling numbers

The release of the modelling numbers comes two hours after Premier Brian Pallister announced that some restrictions will ease on Monday.

This is significantly later than most other provinces, which released modelling numbers weeks ago, some having even shared updated modelling.

Roussin says numbers for the future are not reliable… there are too many unknowns for those predictions and that's why they aren't releasing more — Brittany Greenslade (@BrittAtGlobal) April 29, 2020

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Saskatchewan, which has a similar caseload to Manitoba, released their COVID-19 modelling numbers on April 8.

The number of possible deaths wasn’t released, said Chief Provincial Health Officer Dr. Brent Roussin, because Manitoba’s numbers are so low that it’s difficult to extrapolate data.

“The numbers would not be particularly useful.” Tweet This

“These are looking forward,” Roussin added, saying the modelling numbers were finalized in the past few days.

Lanette Siragusa of Shared Health said they will continue to fight the virus with restrictions and making testing more accessible, including mobile testing where people would come to your home.

They’re also hoping to make results more easily available, including an online site, which she said will be discussed next week.

Dr. Roussin says you can wear a non-medical mask while getting your hair done starting Monday — but says again, it doesn't protect you as much as it protects others around you. Says other measures like hand-washing and staying home if sick are more important. #glbwpg — Diana Foxall (@CJOBdiana) April 29, 2020

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The easing of restrictions doesn’t mean people can stop protecting themselves or others.

“If you’re sick, stay home. If you’re sick, don’t go get your hair cut,” said Roussin.

1:46 Coronavirus outbreak: Manitoba announces gradual reopening of non-essential businesses, non-urgent medical procedures, outdoor spaces Coronavirus outbreak: Manitoba announces gradual reopening of non-essential businesses, non-urgent medical procedures, outdoor spaces

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