I mentioned Senator Lugar in the Sunday Talks Shows Open Thread over at AMERICAblog:

Richard Lugar, viewed by some as a voice of reason, is on CNN. Note this intel from “The Hill” on Lugar: Look for Lugar to expound on his “Don’t ask, don’t tell” position Sunday. While the senator was previously thought to be a ‘yes’ vote on repealing the policy, a Lugar spokesman indicated Friday that the senator is not yet ready to support that, citing some concerns found in the Pentagon’s report.

Lugar’s interview with CNN is already the subject of news reports. Remember, Lugar is key to Obama on START, which is a top priority for the administration. Via Politico:

In an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Lugar said the White House and Republicans are trying to craft a deal that would lead to three major items being considered by the Senate before it leaves town for the holidays: tax cut extensions, a continuing resolution to fund the government, and START. “The problem with this, I think, is that Senator Reid, the majority leader, has found that many Democrats don’t want something quite that abrupt. They say, ‘We made a lot of promises out on the campaign trail. We have demanded that certain things come up, all sorts of things across the board. Don’t cut us out of this,'” Lugar told CNN. He did not specify what legislation could be in jeopardy, but it could include the repeal of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” ban on gays serving openly in the military or the immigration measure known as the DREAM Act, among other things competing for the dwindling Senate floor time in this lame-duck session. “Now, the president is putting very strong pressure to cut them out of this,” Lugar said. “And they’re resentful of that, as a matter of fact.”

The Democratic Senators should be resentful. Any legislation not mentioned is in jeopardy. So should we. It’s critical to understand that if we’re not part of the “deal,” DADT repeal won’t happen.

Now, we’ve heard a lot of denials about any deals involving DADT. The LGBT groups have been told, as recently as Friday, by the White House that the DADT language won’t be negotiated away (and the groups once again got admonished for talking about their top-secret White House meetings.) But, the reality is that Obama isn’t going to fight for the Defense bill in the lame duck. He wants the moderate GOPers to support him on START. He’s not going to push them to break with their leader, Mitch McConnell, end the filibuster on the Defense Authorization bill. That’s the White House priority, as we’ve heard over and over and over.

The White House needs Lugar for START. That’s all Obama will ask of him. It’s not that Obama is saying to Lugar and other GOPers: Give me START and we can forget about the Defense Authorization and DADT. No, it’s more subtle. It’s more like: Give me START and that’s all I’ll ask of you. Whatever else happens or doesn’t happen, well, that’s not our problem. But the reality is that if the DADT language doesn’t pass, it will be a political disaster for the President.

Lugar is making it clear that he’s not going to support passing the DADT language this year. The Evansville Courier reported that Lugar is not exactly on board:

Regardless, the potential for success of any repeal effort is clouded. Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., who was one of the few Republicans being counted on to support the override, now says he will oppose bringing the issue up for a vote at this time. Mark Helmke, senior adviser to Lugar, said Friday that the veteran lawmaker feels “Congress needs to study this more before taking action” and there isn’t enough time to accomplish the needed discussions during as the legislative session wanes.

There are 58 Democrats in the Senate right now. We already know that leading homophobe Mark Pryor won’t vote for anything that includes DADT. If Dems. lose him on cloture — as happened in September (most observers thought Lincoln was the problem back then. Not true. It was Pryor), we’ll need three GOP votes to break the filibuster. Susan Collins and Lugar were considered solid, according to Joe Lieberman. Pretty clear that’s not the case with Lugar any more.

Time is running out — and we’re running out of options. I have the feeling that many of the key players are doing just enough to make sure they don’t get blamed. But, if the DADT language doesn’t pass, there is going to be plenty of blame to go around — and we are going to play the blame game like never before.