Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are already beating their rivals. On Super Tuesday, insiders predict, they'll all but bury them.

Members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of strategists, party leaders, activists and elected officials in four key March-voting states — expect both Clinton and Trump to romp through the majority of Tuesday’s primaries and caucuses. And a number even suggested that running the table on Super Tuesday, or something close to it, could make both front-runners nearly impossible to catch in the race for their parties’ nomination.

Clinton is the favorite in all but two states on Tuesday, according to Democratic insiders: Bernie Sanders’ home state of Vermont, and in the caucuses in Minnesota.


Trump, meanwhile, gets the nod in all but one of the states going to the polls on Tuesday: Texas, where home state Sen. Ted Cruz has the edge, Republicans said.

“Hillary's nomination is a foregone conclusion. You can watch the contest for fun now, but the drama left that one a long time ago,” said a Republican in Virginia, one of the states voting on Super Tuesday.

As for the GOP contests, the insider — who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously — added: “Tuesday night feels like an evening that will require bourbon and soul-searching for Republicans.”

“Game. Set. Match. On both sides,” added another Virginia Republican. “Sure, there will be some surprises and zero candidates will drop out as most have the wherewithal and ego to slog ahead for weeks to come, but this thing is done. Despite conspiracy theories, Trump and Clinton will be cruising to their respective nominations.”

On the Republican side, majorities of insiders picked Trump to win the following contests: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.

The insiders polled were from Virginia, plus three big March 15 states: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio — four swing states that will be critical in the general election.

Insiders were most confident Trump would win the Alabama primary (89 percent picked him to win) and the Alaska caucuses (87 percent) — while they were less certain about the Minnesota caucuses (just 61 percent picked Trump) and the Oklahoma primary (62 percent).

“Trump fever is sweeping the nation,” said a Florida Republican.

The exception was Texas, where Cruz is the prohibitive favorite with roughly three-quarters of insiders picking him to win. But given the long list of other Southern states voting on Tuesday, some insiders said winning only Texas and finishing second — or, even worse, third — in the other “SEC” states would make it a bad night for Cruz.

“This map is made for Ted Cruz,” said a Virginia Republican. “He needs to win more than Texas.”

As for Marco Rubio, the Florida senator is the underdog in every state — though he was a solid second choice for insiders in a number of contests: Massachusetts (21 percent picked Rubio to win), Minnesota (32 percent), Vermont (23 percent) and Virginia (36 percent).

But insiders cautioned that, despite amassing enough delegates to continue, Rubio won’t be able to consolidate all of the anti-Trump vote if he gets shut out of the top spot in every state — especially if Cruz wins Texas.

“Rubio will finish [second] or [third] in every state,” said a Florida Republican. “But — so will Cruz.”

In the days before Super Tuesday, Rubio and Cruz each debuted an aggressive tack against Trump — who has coasted to victory in the past three states — starting with last Thursday’s primary debate in Houston.

Republican insiders were asked whether the two senators have dinged Trump in a meaningful way and rendered a split decision: Roughly as many Republicans said Trump had been damaged as said he hadn’t been.

“Facts haven’t mattered so far, and there’s no reason to think that has changed. Cruz and Rubio felt compelled to go to Trump’s level,” said a North Carolina Republican. “If the contest has degraded to who is best at insulting, Trump has proven time and time again to be the best at that.”

“Not sure anyone can do lasting damage to him right now,” added an Ohio Republican.

But other Republicans said that, by taking on Trump in his own vernacular of insults, Rubio and Cruz have dented the front-runner.

“[It] just started late. Or maybe just the right time. You cannot peak too early,” said a Florida Republican. “You do not give a bully your lunch money. You surprise punch him in the nose, kick him in the groin, then run hard and fast.”

In the Democratic race, Clinton is the overwhelming favorite in the Southern states voting on Tuesday — many of which Sanders isn’t contesting. Insiders — who, as a group have been firmly pro-Clinton over the course of the campaign — were unanimous or near-unanimous that Clinton would win in Alabama (unanimous), Arkansas (unanimous), Oklahoma (91 percent), Tennessee (unanimous), Texas (unanimous) and Virginia.

Clinton had a more modest lead among Democratic insiders asked about the Colorado caucuses — about two-thirds of Democrats said Clinton would win there — and the Massachusetts primary, with 62 percent picking Clinton.

Insiders were split on predicting the Minnesota caucuses: Fifty-three percent chose Sanders, compared to 47 percent for Clinton. And Democrats unanimously said Sanders would win in Vermont, where voters have elected him statewide in 10 elections since 1990.

“Clinton’s biggest win will be Massachusetts, where Sanders had hope to stem the tide,” predicted a North Carolina Democrat. “That primary result should make it clear to the Sanders campaign that there is no way for him to win the nomination.”

“Get out the aloe for all those Berns,” joked an Ohio Democrat. “Super Tuesday will be the beginning of the end of a fascinating ride.”

One Florida Democrat indicated, even if Clinton runs the table outside of an expected loss in Vermont, Sanders has the energy and money to stay in the race.

“While I don't believe Sanders drops out after Tuesday, I do believe Clinton becomes the ‘presumptive’ Democratic nominee,” the Democrat said. “It wouldn't surprise me if Sanders stays in the race through the spring to keep issues of importance to him and his supporters on the front burner, and continue to force Hillary to address them. Sanders essentially has a bottomless pit of money from small donors, which keeps him in the race longer than expected.”

A Virginia Democrat summed up the state of both races.

“Spring isn't here yet,” the Democrat said, “but it's almost fall already.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Virginia: Abbi Easter, Bob Marshall, Brian Coy, Carolyn Fiddler, Chris LaCivita, Doris Crouse-Mays, Frank Leone, Gaylene Kanoyton, Janet Carver, Jeannemarie Devoltes Davis, Jo Thoburn, Joe Fitzgerald, John Crosgrove, John Findlay, Marc Broklawski, Margo Horner, Michael Farris, Patsy Brown, Pete Snyder, Sandra Brandt, Steve Stombres, Sue Langley, Susan J. Rowland, Tom Davis, Tucker Martin

Florida: Alia Faraj-Johnson, Andrea Reilly, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, April Schiff, Ashley Walker, Ben Pollara, Beth Matuga, Brian E. Crowley, Chris Korge, Christian Ulvert, Damien Filer, David Johnson, Dennis Baxley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Nuender, Eric Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Fernand R. Amandi, Fred Menachem, Gus Corbella, Jacki Lee, Jessica D. Ehrlich, Joe Mobley, John Dowless, Jon Mills, Joseph Falk, Judith Diaz, Justin Day, Kelly Cohen, Kevin Cate, Kevin Sweeny, Marian Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Marty Fiorentino, Max Steele, Nelson Diaz, Nick Iarossi, Pamela Burch Fort, Rich Heffley, Richard R. Swann, Rick Wilson, Roger Stone, Ronald L. Book, Ryan Wiggins, Scott Arceneaux, Slater Bayliss, Steve Schale, Steven Vancore, Susan A. MacManus, Tim Baker, Wayne Bertsch

North Carolina: Anita S. Earls, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charles Wallin, Christopher Sgro, Dee Stewart, Douglas Wilson, Dylan Frick, Francis X. De Luca, Jonathan Felts, Melissa Reed, Michael Luethy, Paul Shumaker, Patsy Keever, Ray Martin, Robin Hayes, Tami Fitzgerald, Thomas Mills

Ohio: Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Damareo Cooper, David Pepper, Erica Bruton, Greg Beswick, Ian James, Janet Carson, Jo Ann Davidson, Kathy DiCristofaro, Mark R. Weaver, Martha Clark, Matt Borges, Melissa Klide Hedden, Michael Gonidakis, Mike Dawson, Molly Shack, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, Tim Burke

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.