John C Moritz

USA Today Network

AUSTIN – Tuesday is Election Day, but a common wisecrack around the Texas Capitol is “the elections were in March."

That's because the districts for the state House and Senate are drawn to protect incumbents or the incumbent party, which means everything is pretty much settled in the March primaries.

But because of shifting demographics and expected higher-than-usual turnout, about a half-dozen House races could be in play for the Democrats. Most of them are in suburban districts near Dallas, San Antonio and Houston that have changed hands in the recent past, even Republicans acknowledge.

“There is going to be some down-ballot impact because of the enthusiasm gap in the Trump-Clinton race,” said veteran GOP strategist Eric Bearse, who is not a fan of his party’s nominee for president this year. You saw it the first few days of early voting, there was a lot of enthusiasm against Trump, especially in the urban counties.”

Bearse and Democratic operative Harold Cook agree on that even though many establishment-leaning Republicans are tepid toward Trump and many usually dormant voters turned out during the two-week early voting period.

Although the 31-member Texas Senate will have at least three new faces after all the votes are counted in the 16 districts being contested this year, the 20-11 Republican advantage will not likely change.

The races to watch will be in Texas House districts that have flipped once or twice in recent cycles or have become increasingly diverse since the latest boundaries were drawn in 2011. The House makeup is 99 Republicans, 50 Democrats and one independent. The Democrat has a huge advantage in the San Antonio district where the independent won in a special election.

Bearse said districts in the urbanized and suburbanized sections of mostly rural counties will likely remain in the Republican column. Democrats will be keeping an eye out for potential pickups in the following races:

District 107 in Dallas County where three-term Republican Kenneth Sheets is facing a strong challenge from newcomer Democrat Victoria Neave. Before Sheets was elected, the district was in the Democratic column for two terms.

District 144 in Harris County is another seesaw district. In 2014, Republican Gilbert Peña defeated one-term Democrat Mary Ann Perez. Now, Perez is seeking to win the seat back.

District 117 in San Antonio features another rematch. Democrat Philip Cortez held the seat for a single term after winning it in 2012. Two years later, Republican Rick Galindo snatched it away in the GOP landslide that swept Texas in the mid-terms.

District 118 in San Antonio has generally been considered home turf for Democrats. But in a a runoff after Democratic former Rep. Joe Farias stepped down in midterm early this year, Republican John Lujan beat Democrat Tomas Uresti by 171 votes. They’re now in a rematch.

District 43 surrounding Corpus Christi was held by the Democrats until J.M. Lozano won it in the 2010. He is challenged by underfunded Democrat Marisa Yvette Garcia Utley.

Even though no Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994, there is one incumbent Democrat on the statewide ballot this year. Larry Meyers, a judge on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, is seeking his fifth six-year term.

Meyers was a Republican the first four times he ran and won, but switched parties in 2013. Ironically, when Meyers was first elected in 1992, he was the only Republican on the nine-member court. He is opposed by Republican Mary Lou Keel, a 20-year state district judge in Harris County.



Where to vote



This from the Texas Secretary of State's Office: On your voter registration certificate, you will see a precinct number. Your residence is located in a specific “precinct” or area within the county where you will vote on Election Day. In some cases, precincts may be combined to accommodate joint local elections. For more information, visit http://www.votetexas.gov/voting/where/ or contact your county elections office.

