So mostly for the sake of playing around with numbers, here’s some stats on the general election.



Each point on the matrix plot (second image) shows a UK constituency. The variables CON, LAB, LIB, UKIP, NAT (SNP + Plaid Cymru) and GREEN represent the change in share of vote for each party from the 2010 to 2015 general elections (taken from http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/flatfile.html ), CLAIMANT represents the change in claimant rate in a parliamentary constituency from April 2010 to April 2015 (taken from https://www.nomisweb.co.uk ).

The two tables are the correlation coefficient and corresponding p value for each of the variables. Since we’re dealing with many comparisons here (21), we can use the Bonferonni correction to set our critical p value at 0.05/21~=0.0024.

A couple of things that jump out:

* By far and away the strongest positive correlation (at r~=0.4456) is between the change in Labour vote and the change in the claimant rate, i.e. areas which saw a smaller decrease in the rate of benefit claimants were likely to see a larger increase in the Labour vote (N.b. this point has been edited to reflect the data better). This is fairly unsurprising as Labour are perceived (wrongly, imo) as a party that will treat benefit claimants better.

* There is no significant correlation between the change in the Labour and UKIP votes, i.e. no foundation to the idea that UKIP are making any serious inroads into Labour’s core vote, despite a widespread perception that this is the case.

* There is a slight negative correlation between change in UKIP vote and change in claimant rate. I.e. despite a common belief amongst UKIP voters that immigrants take jobs from “native” Brits, this doesn’t seem to be reflected at all in the areas where UKIP do best.

*There is a positive correlation between change in Labour vote and change in “nationalist” vote. Probably driven by the collapse of Labour support and rise of the SNP in Scotland.

All correlations with p<0.0024 and |r|>0.1:



* CON/LIB: +ve correlation, r=0.26823920, p=3.564704*10^-12

* CON/UKIP: -ve correlation, r=-0.42446852, p=8.147785*10^-30

* CON/NAT: +ve correlation, r=0.38741884, p~=0

* LAB/LIB: -ve correlation, r=-0.19233813, p=7.79458*10^-7

* LAB/NAT: -ve correlation, r=-0.31442075, p=2.214186*10^-16

* LAB/GREEN: +ve correlation, r=0.273040596, p=1.1412648*10^-12

* LAB/CLAIMANT: +ve correlation, r=0.4455031, p~=0

* LIB/NAT: +ve correlation, r=0.27340215, p=1.316502*10^-12

* LIB/GREEN: -ve correlation, r=-0.440425321, p=3.209157*10^-32

* UKIP/NAT: -ve correlation, r=-0.45315224, p-1.018651*10^-34

* UKIP/CLAIMANT: -ve correlation, r=-0.15726223, p=5.65457*10^-5

* NAT/GREEN: -ve correlation, r=-0.272925634, p=1.444528*10^-12