Former prime minister John Howard is to receive an award from the influential think tank when he visits Washington next month in one of his first public engagements since losing office. It calls for the new surge in a report to be published next month. Details have been revealed in the Army Times, an independent newspaper serving US troops.

Among its recommendations include sending a brigade to Oruzgan province, where Australian troops are based. If adopted, the plan could double the number of foreign forces in Oruzgan, where about 2500 Australian and Dutch troops are over-stretched. A US Army brigade can number between 3000 and 5000 troops. According to the Army Times, the AEI says the the extra troops would be on top of the 3200 additional troops the US is sending to Afghanistan. The AEI report, while not commissioned by the US Government, was drafted by a team of experts headed by Fred Kagan, a military historian and author of a paper that strongly influenced President George Bush's Iraq surge.

The Federal Government has asked the defence force to review the composition of Australia's current commitment of 1000 troops. The review, revealed by Australian Defence Force head Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston late last month, prompted speculation that the Government could reduce the number of army engineers involved in reconstruction and increase the number of infantry. The review is part of what Air Chief Marshal Houston said was a "comprehensive, whole-of-country strategy for Afghanistan, which is something that has been lacking up to now".

Following talks in Washington last week, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said there was "no current suggestion" of Australia sending more troops to Afghanistan. But he said the Government was looking at a greater non-military contribution, including aid, training and building the capacity of the Afghan Government. Australia's rethink mirrors an urgent international review of the western effort in Afghanistan, amid warnings the US and NATO risk losing the fight with Taliban insurgents. A study by US military and diplomatic experts last week warned that the prospect of losing significant parts of Afghanistan to Islamic extremists "has moved from the improbable to the possible".

Unless more troops were sent and the foreign effort had a unified leadership and strategy, Afghanistan could revert to a "failed state", said the report by the Afghanistan Study Group, co-chaired by retired US Marines general James Jones, a former NATO commander. A separate report released in Washington, also chaired by General Jones, said: "Make no mistake, NATO is not winning in Afghanistan."

In a comment that also reflects Australia's emerging new approach, the report said "the future of Afghanistan will be determined by progress or failure in the civil sector". Western strategy in Afghanistan will be the focus of a summit of NATO heads of government in Bucharest in April, which Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is likely to attend.