Election Betting Roundup

Joe Biden is showing signs of life.

Just this week, Bernie Sanders’ odds for the Democratic Nomination stood at a commanding 49c(!) lead over the nearest candidate, Michael Bloomberg. At that time, Sanders (65c/share) outpaced Biden (13c/share) by 52c.

We’ve told you before that these markets will be volatile, and that heavy frontrunners have seen their reigns atop the odds leaderboard crumble in short order. Well, in intra-week action, Bernie has seen his price drop 21% to 51c/share, while Biden’s ascended 123% to 29c/share; narrowing Bernie’s lead to 22c.

Why is Biden all of a sudden making a comeback? Keendawg of Star Spangled Gamblers fame hits us with some knowledge in a recent article:



One of two things is probably going to happen in the Palmetto State: Joe Biden will win and get the juice to pick up a handful of Southern states on Super Tuesday, maybe get his neck back into the Texas Primary, and re-set this campaign as a two-man race with Bernie Sanders… …If Biden can win South Carolina…then lots of markets are going to pump in his favor. In fact, some of them already are doing this in anticipation of a win.



It’s true. This week, Biden’s odds to win South Carolina (Saturday, 2/29) have improved from 43c/share all the way to 91c. Keendawg lays out the game theory that should follow from one’s belief in how Joe will perform in SC; so that readers may skate where the puck is going:



THE OPPORTUNITY

If you believe that Joe Biden is going to win South Carolina, then you also need to be thinking about buying into his campaign in similar states like Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. As your pro-Joe-Mojo increases and you start thinking he might be a winner after all, you should possibly consider Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, and Arkansas as reasonable targets. And if you are a serious alpha, then you also understand that political machine states like New York and Illinois, where big city bosses who have never been Bernie Sanders fans can crank-out votes by hook-or-by-crook, are targets of opportunity.



THE RISK

If Uncle Joe loses South Carolina, his campaign is over. That’s it. Biden has been able to claim that Iowa and New Hampshire were road games for him and that South Carolina is the first contest on his home turf — one where there are lots of black voters who are the backbone of his support. If his strongest supporters don’t show up for him, then it’s game over and all your Biden shares are basically worth zero.

Super Tuesday

Saturday’s South Carolina contest serves as the warmup for a wild day on the campaign trail, Super Tuesday. On March 4th, a total of 16 states and territories will hold primaries or caucuses; Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

This day represents roughly 1/3 of total delegates, and thus will be a key determinant of who will go on to face Donald Trump in the general election. Our friends at Guesser will have the best in Super Tuesday data, merging real-time PredictIt odds with live election results.

Additionally, on Guesser, one can predict how many Super Tuesday contests Bernie Sanders will win.

Contested Convention Watch

In last week’s post, we detailed the path to a contested convention, and how betting markets may be overpricing Bernie relative to the probability of a contested convention. PredictIt’s contested convention ‘Yes’ odds were volatile (on low volume) falling from 54c/share to 40c/share in one day, before climbing all the back to their current mark of 56c.

Bernie’s DemNom frontrunner price still seems a little rich relative to the likelihood of a contested convention, but this is not trading advice.

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Further reading, listening, and watching:

The Political Trade Podcast ft. Jason Pipkin

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