There should be no surprise that the economy was the most important issue at the election, named by 20 per cent of voters compared to 16 per cent who named the environment, 12 per cent who named health and 8 per cent who named taxation. Another 19 per cent named the more general issue of the parties as a whole. What stands out is the way these issues drove the swings at the ballot box. Anthony Albanese faces a task ahead of him. Illustration: Andrew Dyson Credit: Among those who previously voted Labor the main reasons for switching to the Coalition were the economy and taxation, which drove 4.5 per cent of voters. Another 2 per cent named leadership as the reasons for changing their votes. This was only partially offset by swings toward Labor. The main drivers of these swings were the environment, named by 1.5 per cent of voters, and health, named by another 1 per cent. The maths worked in Morrison's favour.

Loading "In this election, there were a greater number of voters that switched from Labor to the Coalition based on economic issues, than from the Coalition to Labor based on environmental issues," the study says. The rage against Morrison grew so loud this week that his critics seemed sure the calculation would change – in other words, that voters would emerge from the blanket of smoke with a new priority on climate change. But what proof is there of that? On Twitter, a battlefield littered with Molotov cocktails of emotion and fury, those who want greater action on climate change see the bushfires as a tipping point. Yet the "millennium drought" during John Howard's last term as prime minister was not the turning point many thought it to be. Within three years Tony Abbott had led a conservative revolt against action on climate change, while the Greens voted against an emissions trading scheme. Albanese is acting on the lessons from the election. His comments this week on coal exports did not give the Greens what they wanted – a ban by 2030 – but gave Labor what it needed: a message on climate change that did not throw coal workers aside.

One of the greatest disputes about the election result, and therefore a central question to be answered in this term of Parliament, is the extent to which "battlers" deserted Labor in favour of Morrison and his appeal to aspiration. The Australian Election Study finds that 48 per cent of people consider themselves to be working class, 50 per cent middle class and 2 per cent upper class. While 48 per cent of the working class voted Labor three years ago, only 41 per cent did so this year. This group's support for the Liberals also slipped, but the risk is greater for Labor. Whether the issue is religion or the economy, Labor has no choice but to turn its attention from the inner cities to the outer suburbs – something it thought it was doing, but was obviously not doing enough. The divide on education is also fundamental. While 36 per cent of those with university degrees vote Labor and another 17 per cent vote Green, the conservatives hold an advantage among those with trades. Of those with non-tertiary qualifications, 42 per cent vote Liberal and 4 per cent back the Nationals, compared to 32 who vote Labor and 10 per cent who back the Greens. Labor under Bill Shorten prided itself on having a plan to invest in TAFE and bring fairness to the workforce, yet voters turned away. Albanese ends this year with a strong start to his leadership, including expelling John Setka from the Labor Party and putting pressure on Morrison in Parliament, but the greater challenge is to rethink policy.

Loading Decisions on tax policy are crucial to Labor's fortunes. The Australian Election Study, based on surveys of 2179 voters, highlights the way the taxation of assets, not just income, can now determine who holds power. "The 2019 election underlined the important shift that has been taking place in voting behaviour, away from occupation-based voting and towards asset-based voting, reflecting in shares, housing and superannuation," it says. While 57 per cent of all voters agreed with limits on negative gearing and 53 per cent agreed with changes to franking credits on shares, the sheer weight of the Labor tax plan cost it government. How much of the party's tax agenda is Albanese willing to throw overboard? Morrison leads a government that is still searching for a bigger mission than celebrating the tax cuts it has legislated, the border protection regime it has restored and the election it has won.