SURPRISE, Ariz. -- In four days, Mike Minor, drafted by the Atlanta Braves, remade by the Kansas City Royals and finally bought by the Rangers, will open the season.

It is the 48th season in Texas; we could change that to the 48th annual edition of the never-ending saga known as:

Why can't the Rangers develop their own pitching?

Stadiums around these parts come and go. But the pitching issue lives on. At the moment, it's at a particularly prickly stage.

The most successful era in franchise history is long gone. A major rebuild is underway. The guy overseeing it, general manager Jon Daniels, is entering his 14th season. His efforts at drafting and pursuing pitchers on the Latin American free agent market have produced some middling results, but not a single All-Star Game berth or a vote for a Cy Young Award.

The most recent chapter in this franchise-long saga is more complicated than a simple broad statement. While the Rangers have had some big swings and misses in the draft and development areas, a Dallas Morning News study suggests their internal production has been right about league average.

On the major league side, the past 18 months have been particularly rough.

The Rangers have dealt away the biggest financial investment they've ever made in a pitcher (Yu Darvish) and also the biggest investment via trade (Cole Hamels). They decided to pay the brightest hope from their own international development program (Martin Perez) to please leave and go somewhere else.

Amid all this, the Rangers' starting rotation for 2019 includes no exclusively homegrown member. Four of the five were acquired via free agency; the other as postseason barter so the Cubs could essentially extend Hamels. The goal for the rotation: Hold down the fort so the next wave of homegrown hopes and prospects acquired via trade doesn't have to be exposed too early.

Meanwhile, the Rangers hope to parlay a huge investment into research, development and technology into a bright future. But that future remains somewhere off in the distance.

By the numbers

Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, right, has overseen the best years in club history, with two World Series berths and five trips to the postseason under his tenure. The team, however, is predicted to suffer its third straight losing season in 2019. (Smiley N. Pool / Staff Photographer)

It would be improper to say the Rangers haven't developed any pitching under Daniels. In fact, according to The News' study of Daniels' tenure, using the data available at Baseball-Reference.com, the Rangers rank right around the middle of MLB teams in terms of getting WAR (Wins Above Replacement) from pitchers developed within the organization.

With pitchers drafted or signed since 2006 (not including those who came directly from other pro leagues such as those in Japan or Cuba), the Rangers produced 33.4 WAR. It ranked just 2.5 total wins below Baltimore, which was 15th. It is relatively insignificant total.

"The middle is obviously not where we want to be," Daniels said. "I'm encouraged by a lot of the young talent we've added recently. And maybe more so by the personnel in place on the acquisition and development sides, and the processes we've put in place and are continuing to refine. We've got to develop these next two waves of starters to accomplish what we plan to."

Daniels, however, declined to comment further on the lack of pitching production.

The middle is indeed a precarious spot in these rankings.

Teams in the top tier, well, they have created an advantage for themselves. They have accounted for half of the 26 total World Series berths in the Daniels era and seven of the 13 champions.

Teams at the bottom seem to have either given up entirely -- or at least on development -- and are willing to spend heavily to supplement their roster. That group accounts for seven World Series berths and five champions mostly because of the thick wallets of the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox.

The teams in the middle seem to be spinning wheels. They are either not great at development or unwilling to regularly bust budgets to add pitchers. That group has one World Series championship in the last 13 years.

Here is the best way to describe what the Rangers have produced under Daniels: lots of little contributions, but no singular game-changer.

Consider the example of the Rangers and their rivals, the Houston Astros. The Rangers received 25.2 WAR from drafted pitchers, which was tied for 20th, and a virtual tie with Houston (25.8). Houston got most of its contributions from Dallas Keuchel (18.7) and Lance McCullers Jr. (6.1). Keuchel has a Cy Young, two All-Star invitations, three workhorse seasons of 200 innings and four Gold Gloves. McCullers has made an All-Star team, too.

Factor in the international signings and the Rangers actually rank ahead of Houston (25.5). But the best they can say is they got a 200-inning season once from Derek Holland and that Perez came close once.

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Pitchers, games, games started and innings pitched that teams have gotten from the draft and international signings.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Flops and bad luck

Texas Rangers relief pitchers Luke Jackson (center) and Chi Chi Gonzalez roam the dugout during Texas' 10-1 win over the Seattle Mariners Saturday, September 19, 2015 at Globe Life Ballpark in Arlington, Texas. (G.J. McCarthy/The Dallas Morning News) (G.J. McCarthy / Staff Photographer)

There is a reason Daniels prefers not to go in-depth in dissecting pitching failures of the past. To do so would essentially be pointing fingers somewhere within the organization.

It's OK.

The guys charged with finding pitchers and developing them -- scouting director Kip Fagg and pitching coordinator Danny Clark -- have spent plenty of time self-evaluating and are more than willing to point fingers at themselves on occasion.

"I'm overly hard on myself," said Fagg, who is beginning his 28th season in the Rangers' scouting department and his 10th running the draft. "We could have made some much better decisions. Every decision is like a pizza and there are different slices of the pizza. We haven't done such a great job on some of the pieces in the past, but I feel better about the process over the last couple of years."

"At certain points in time, maybe we got complacent on the development side. But right now, I feel like the motivation and drive is at an all-time high," said Clark, who is entering his 11th season as the organization's pitching coordinator.

There have been some notable flops on the pitching side, particularly among high draft choices. Some has been due to poor evaluation, some to injury-based attrition and some to unfortunate circumstances.

Consider Daniels' first draft in 2006. It kind of set the pitching tone.

Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer went among the five picks before the Rangers, with Ron Hopkins in the scouting director's role, selected lefty Kasey Kiker at No. 12. He was doomed by command issues and never made it above Double-A.

Not even the great Nolan Ryan could solve the problem. He personally negotiated with the family of lefty Matt Purke, the first-round selection in 2009. A deal was agreed upon. But because the club was in financial trouble, bonuses had to be approved by a Major League Baseball-appointed overseer. The deal was nixed. Purke ended up not signing.

There have been others. Kevin Matthews (2011), who didn't make it out of Class A with the Rangers, and Dillon Tate (2015), the fourth overall pick, was traded away barely a year after being selected when the Rangers determined he was too set in his ways to change.

The Rangers took Tate, who had a cleaner medical history, rather than Walker Buehler. Buehler fell to 24th overall on those concerns. He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting last year.

"I took the healthy guy," Fagg said. "I go over that one in my head over and over."

Even when there has been promise, there has been bad luck. The Rangers have a promising trio of pitchers from the 2016 draft in smooth first-rounder Cole Ragans, power-throwing second-rounder Alex Speas and fast-learning sixth-rounder Kyle Cody.

All three are currently recovering from Tommy John surgery.

"I've asked myself why we've had the injuries," Clark said. "Was the throwing program too aggressive? Did our guys get too strong too fast?"

In the Daniels era, under two scouting directors and with A.J. Preller heavily involved in the draft for several years, the Rangers have used their first pick on a pitcher nine times. Their net on-the-field-contribution to the Rangers: Four wins, 77 innings and 0.4 WAR, all by Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez. The eight who didn't produce anything for the Rangers were all high school pitchers, who may have more raw upside but are less predictable.

On the other hand, the Rangers have done well in the middle rounds, getting Holland in 2006, Alex Claudio in 2010, Nick Martinez in 2011 and Keone Kela in 2012. That quartet, all drafted after the 10th round, accounts for 81 percent of the Rangers' draft WAR in the Daniels era.

"I don't think a team in baseball has done as good a job as we have there," Fagg said, then laughed at himself. "Why have I sucked early? I can't explain it. I've worked at it, and I've looked at it. Does it haunt me? I don't know if I'd say that, but it drives me."

Things must change

Texas Rangers' pitcher Cole Winn (left) gets the upper hand on Owen White(right) while working on drills that improves strength, agility and quickness at the Rangers' training facility Friday, Aug. 10, 2018 in Surprise, Arizona. (Darryl Webb / Special Contributor)

Even if Daniels doesn't want to discuss much of the past or reveal too much about the future, there is acknowledgement that things much change.

Actions speak much louder than words.

In the last year, the Rangers have taken a deep dive into statistical analysis and research to help both the scouting and player development programs. While they are getting a later start on this than some of the current industry leaders such as Houston, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees, the investment has been massive.

The Rangers made 55 new hires over the course of the winter, many of them in research and development roles. Daniels laid out the need for collaboration between scouting, player development and analytics at an organization-wide pre-spring training meeting.

There were so many analysts at spring training that their work space spilled out from the allotted office space, and guys were crowded around makeshift computer stations in a hallway late into the night.

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Like most clubs, the Rangers have made Rapsodo data-gathering tools and high-speed edgertronic cameras common at workouts. But the Rangers have also gone further. They have a contractual relationship with baseball biomechanics pioneer Driveline Baseball. While many clubs are experimenting with wearable technology such as the Motus Sleeve, which accumulates stress data and is supposed to better monitor fatigue, the Rangers will be among the heaviest of users. There will be more individually tailored throwing progressions.

"We're now collaborating and using the new technology to actually see what the deficiencies are," Clark said. "We are seeing a clearer picture of what we need to zero in on. We are diminishing the trial and error that we were looking at five, six years ago. If we're asking somebody to do something on the mound with his hips and his hips aren't mobile enough for the concept, then we are swimming upstream. We are better able to identify that now and address it first."

An example: A year ago, the Rangers went heavy on high school pitchers in the draft. Rather than have them work in the Arizona Rookie League, they created a "de-load" program to help them acclimate to professional baseball. It was heavy on classroom work and creating a foundation rather than simply throwing the pitchers into games.

The integration of technology in the development program will probably only increase. The Rangers hired two pitching coaches for the Arizona Rookie League team with strong data backgrounds, Bryan Conger, formerly of Tarleton State, and Sean Cashman.

It is all part of transitioning an organization that made its bones on scouting and traditional methods toward one that embraces the future.

"I should have been ahead of the curve," Clark said. "I wish I'd have been more proactive in the that. I knew there was exposure to that there, but the exposure came really quick."

That data analysis will also bleed over to the scouting department. Many clubs are now hiring analysts to help break down the reams of information about amateur players.

Said Fagg: "There is still the scouting element. I don't think any one area is more important than another. But if you don't embrace the tools that are available, you better start looking for another job. To say something like that doesn't make sense to use, it's just not smart."

Signs of hope

The goal is to be smarter. And more productive. The middle is nowhere to be.

There are signs the Rangers are moving in the right direction.

Through the first stages of the teardown over the last year, the Rangers have netted 11 pitching prospects in trades, including three of their top 20 overall prospects, according to MLB Pipeline. They went heavier than usual on pitching in the draft, using nine of their first 12 picks on pitchers. The next step was to invest heavily in personnel, technology and R&D. It's likely the Rangers will follow a similar cycle this year, trying to flip players for prospects at the deadline and continuing to broaden their staff.

Then comes the next step, which is the hardest: Produce a rotation-changing pitcher or two.

If not, they've got a new retractable roof stadium and the revenue streams that come with it coming on line in 2020. If nothing else works, they could take a page from the likes of recent world champions such as the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox, both of which have proven it isn't necessary to develop your own pitching if you are willing to spend extravagantly.

But if the current approach doesn't work, it's likely going to be somebody else rather than Daniels who gets to spend it.

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WAR

The WAR of drafted and international players for teams ranked by total WAR, with the biggest producer for each team:

WAR, in pieces

Under Jon Daniels, the Rangers have had 27 pitchers they drafted or signed as international teenage free agents (the list does not account for Yu Darvish, who came from a pro league at age 25) appear for them, accounting for a total 33.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) level. Here are the top 10 performers among that group

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On Twitter: @Evan_P_Grant