4 YEARS AGO – “A DECLINING ASSET”

I’m working at a technology startup and today I am talking to one of the founders. He looks at me and says, “Our main product is a declining asset.”

This is the product that generates 90% of our revenue and pays both of our paychecks. It’s the one that made our company a success, put us on the map.

Uh oh.

NOVEMBER 12, 2011 – ADOBE’S BIG IDEA

If you watched the Digital Media section of Adobe’s recent analyst meeting, you know that Adobe is putting a lot of focus on HTML5. Their recent announcement regarding dropping mobile web browser support for Flash Player caused a lot of turmoil, too, along with a shift in direction for the Flex SDK, their enterprise app framework.

If you look at the marketplace and the technologies at play, it seems that Adobe has realized that Flash’s position in the marketplace is eroding, that the erosion probably can’t be stopped, and they need to treat Flash as a declining asset. Just to review, here are some reasons that Flash’s position is eroding:

The many 3rd party mobile, native, and web-targeted development tools like Corona, Moai, Unity and others.

like Corona, Moai, Unity and others. Non-Adobe Flash runtimes like Scaleform, Iggy. Companies like The Behemoth have their own Flash-compatible runtimes, too.

like Scaleform, Iggy. Companies like The Behemoth have their own Flash-compatible runtimes, too. And of course the big one – HTML5. It can handle more and more enterprise apps, animation/multimedia content, and 3D. Browser vendors are in competition but increasingly targeting Flash-like capabilities.

Long term, HTML5 and other non-Flash technologies are unlikely to go away. Adobe may as well be proactive about owning the space rather than fight an unwinnable battle to keep everyone on Flash.

One more point to consider: Flash is made up of three big pieces. You have the tools, like Flash Builder and Flash Pro. You have the runtime, like the web plugin, the standalone player binaries, and AIR for desktop and mobile. And finally, you have the platform itself – the file formats, AVM specification, compilers, and APIs that define the behavior of Flash content.

They are all independent to a greater or lesser degree. The only part that probably wouldn’t migrate to HTML5 is the actual runtime (but see Gordon). And Adobe has been rumbling about compiling AS3 to JS/HTML5 and supporting C via Alchemy 2.

LABELS AND COMMUNITIES

Now, the funny thing about that conversation from four years ago is that, because of the mental label of “declining asset” we assigned, (at least) two interesting things happened. First, the company got acquired and tried to diversify into a couple of new markets. Second, I along with a few other guys left the company and went on to start a new one.

But the “declining” product continued to make more money than ever before. And in fact, it lives on today, despite the original company getting liquidated by its owner when the diversification strategy didn’t work out. So what does it mean, exactly, to be a declining asset?

I think “declining asset” is a label you put on something to help you make decisions. In Adobe’s case, the decision they made was to move their long term focus toward HTML5 and away from Flash Player.

There are some important things to keep in mind with the communities that develop around technologies and products. First, realize that the conversation is often dominated by the vocal minority – so what is said most often and loudest often doesn’t reflect on the actual needs of your user base. Second, realize that the people who post on your forums are emotionally invested in the product, have it as part of their identity, and they will be deeply unsettled by any signs that support is fading. Finally, realize that users often have a limited perspective. Community members are not tracking major market trends, they are looking at how they can meet their immediate needs (like getting contract work or finishing a specific project).

In other words, the community tends to act like a mob.

And I saw no better example of this than when I was on a group video chat last week and saw Flash professionals practically weeping, calling out Adobe representatives, demanding, threatening to break up, over these announcements. It was more like seeing your drunk friend vent over his ex-girlfriend than it was watching a group of well-respected developers discuss their future. Everything is in a turmoil, it’s the end of the world, everyone is screwed, etc.

REPORTS OF FLASH’S DEATH

Ok, but that isn’t actually the end of “Flash” as a whole. Probably. Even though it really sounds like it. Let me explain.

Adobe has a ton of outs from this situation that let them preserve their and your investments. The most obvious out is replacing Flash Player with HTML5. You export from Flash Pro or Flash Builder and it runs directly on HTML5. In fact, they have been inching towards this in different forms for a while now (the conversion tool on Labs, Edge, Muse, etc.).

Even if they drop AS3 and go with JS, their tools can still be useful. If Flash Pro can still create banner ads and interactive experiences for a large audience, who cares what the output runs on? Life will continue relatively unchanged for a lot of Adobe customers.

There’s also a more subtle out:

HTML5 has its weaknesses. Lots of them. But public opinion supports it. Maybe it’s just a Betamax vs. VHS difference. Or maybe HTML5 is doomed due to the conflicting goals of vendors and the difficulty of the implementation task.

Maybe HTML5 ends up being great for less demanding uses – like basic enterprise apps, ads, motion graphics, etc. – but can’t get it together for highly demanding and integrated stuff like games. Adobe can keep Flash around and focus specifically on the game use case – which, by the way, is also highly beneficial for non-game apps, since they tend to use subsets of game functionality – and get as much value from it as possible for as long as possible.

Between the games angle and inertia, Flash could remain relevant for years. It could even end up totally dominating that space for a long time to come, even as HTML5 takes over the bottom of the market, due to being able to be more focused and agile.

CONCLUSIONS

Let me add two caveats. First caveat: At some point you can only expect so much out of a platform – you can’t get a guarantee that it will remain relevant for ten years. Even proven, still-relevant technologies like C have had their death announced many times. At some point you just have to say, “well, N years more relevance is good enough and I’ll re-evaluate in a year.”

Second caveat: Maybe Adobe screws the pooch and that’s that. Maybe they cut too many resources from Flash. Maybe they don’t build good stuff on HTML5. Maybe they ruin everything. So don’t bet the farm. Make sure you learn a few different technologies well. It will make you a better developer, even if you still just do Flash work day to day. And you’ll sleep easier knowing that if worst comes to worst you have an out. I’ve never seen a successful programmer regret having learned a new language or paradigm.

I don’t think Adobe is making bad decisions, just difficult ones.

Bottom line: Flash is a declining asset, but declining assets aren’t dead or even out of the fight. Everyone needs to look at technologies on their merits and see if it’s a good fit for your needs. There are a lot of places where Flash will continue to be a good fit for a while to come – and the places where it is ambiguous deserve careful consideration regardless of Adobe’s stated plans.

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