Craig Gilbert

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

MILWAUKEE — If the politics of sharing a stage with Donald Trump weren’t complicated enough, they became untenable Friday for Wisconsin’s top three GOP politicians, House Speaker Paul Ryan, Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Ron Johnson.

With all three due to appear with Trump in Wisconsin on Saturday, an explosive tape released by the Washington Post on Friday showed Trump in 2005 bragging in very graphic terms about trying to have sex with women.

The fallout was swift. In a statement Friday night, Ryan joined a bipartisan chorus of condemnation and announced that Trump would no longer be appearing at the Wisconsin GOP event.

"I am sickened by what I heard today. Women are to be championed and revered, not objectified," Ryan said in a statement. "I hope Mr. Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves and works to demonstrate to the country that he has greater respect for women than this clip suggests. In the meantime, he is no longer attending tomorrow’s event in Wisconsin.”

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Ryan, Walker and Johnson are all Trump backers, and Ryan did not back away from his endorsement Friday night.

But each of the three has been muted and conflicted in his support for Trump.

In Ryan’s case, an analysis of polling data in Wisconsin shows just how much his own supporters are divided over Trump, making his relationship with the GOP nominee especially fraught.

In effect, his response to any controversy over Trump — whether it’s joining hands with him, staying silent or rebuking him — has the potential to hurt Ryan among voters who like the Janesville Republican.

To explore this point, it's worth examining voter attitudes toward Ryan and Trump using four months of Wisconsin polling data (June, July, August and September) provided by Charles Franklin of the Marquette University Law School.

It shows that while Ryan’s supporters (people who view him favorably) are split over the GOP nominee, they are actually more anti-Trump than pro-Trump: 48% of the Wisconsin voters who like Ryan dislike Trump. Only 41% of voters who like Ryan also like Trump.

This sets Ryan apart from fellow Republicans Walker and Johnson.

When you break down the “Ryan coalition” even further, you see how utterly fragmented it is over Trump.

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Of Wisconsin voters who have a positive view of Ryan:

• 27% are pro-Trump Republicans.

• 12% are anti-Trump Republicans.

• 13% are anti-Trump Democrats.

• 22% are anti-Trump independents.

• 11% are pro-Trump independents (the rest are mostly people who don’t have an opinion about Trump).

That’s a pretty eclectic group, reflecting Ryan’s relative popularity statewide (50% of Wisconsin voters view him favorably, 32% unfavorably), and his relative strength (for a Republican) with moderates, independents and women.

The numbers with women in particular underscore why Trump has been such a political headache for Ryan.

Ryan has a positive rating with women in Wisconsin: 45% view him favorably, 32% unfavorably. Trump has an extremely negative one: 25% view him favorably, 68% unfavorably.

If every anti-Trump voter in Wisconsin “rejected” Ryan for endorsing Trump, it would cut Ryan’s support in his home state by half.

If every pro-Trump voter in Wisconsin “rejected” Ryan for his conspicuous criticisms of Trump, it would cut Ryan’s support in his home state by almost half.

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Neither has happened, of course. Instead, the polling suggests that up until this point, the Janesville Republican has managed to straddle the Trump divide in his state.

His anti-Trump supporters either don’t think Ryan’s endorsement of Trump is a good enough reason to reject Ryan — or they view Ryan as more of a Trump critic than a Trump backer.

His pro-Trump supporters either don’t think Ryan’s criticisms of Trump are a good enough reason to reject Ryan — or they view Ryan as more of a Trump backer than a Trump critic.

It’s hard to know just how the Trump saga has affected Ryan politically, because the speaker’s endorsement of Trump defines the relationship for some people, while his tensions with Trump define the relationship for others.

GOING THROUGH THE MOTIONS?

Ryan’s favorability rating among independents and moderates has grown this year, and is much higher — around 50% — than that of other Republicans in Wisconsin. We don’t know if that’s because he’s been critical of Trump. But we do know that his endorsement of Trump hasn’t hurt him so far with these voting groups, which are far more negative than positive toward Trump.

The polling also suggests that Ryan’s tensions with Trump haven’t really damaged him in his own party.

Ryan’s favorability rating among GOP voters has been in the 70s and 80s all year.

While a clear majority (a little over 60%) of Republican voters in the state view Trump positively, a significant minority — more than a quarter — view Trump negatively.

Ryan is equally popular with both pro- and anti-Trump Republicans in Wisconsin.

In an interview with conservative radio host Laura Ingraham on Friday, Ryan said he would join Trump, Walker, Johnson and GOP national chair Reince Priebus of Wisconsin on the same stage Saturday at the Walworth County Fairgrounds in Ryan’s home congressional district.

The interview took place before the Washington Post released its tape of Trump speaking in vulgar terms about making sexual advances on women.

“This is our big get-out-the-vote rally ... to get Republicans to unify,” Ryan said of the GOP’s annual Fall Fest event. “We’re excited that both Mike (Pence) and Donald (Trump) are coming.”

Asked about the perception that many politicians in his party — including House leaders — are just “going through the motions” for Trump, Ryan pointed to his fall barnstorming for GOP congressional candidates (22 states, 42 cities), where he’s making the case for “unified Republican government.”

But Ryan offered no praise for Trump, just the argument that electing Hillary Clinton would be bad for the country and bad for the GOP agenda.

Ryan and Walker are so much more popular than Trump in Wisconsin that it made perfect sense for Trump to want to campaign with them here.

But even before the latest controversy derailed their joint appearance, the politics were more complicated for Johnson, who may have to out-perform Trump to win his Senate race against Democrat Russ Feingold.

And they were more complicated for Ryan, who remains popular with many voters here who don’t like Trump.