The fallout from the coronavirus lockdown could pit young and old and rich and poor against each other, a new report warns.

The discussion paper, released by think-tank Koi Tū: Centre for Informed Futures on Friday, predicted a bleak future for New Zealand after coronavirus.

It said the recession which is likely to follow the coronavirus pandemic could increase feelings of resentment and create "a sense of winners and losers" which could in turn damage social cohesion.

Abigail Dougherty A new report has predicted what the country's future will be like post-Covid-19 - and it's somewhat bleak. (File photo)

The report also predicted the country's already high rates of depression and anxiety among young people will increase, along with the suicide rate.

It's believed that up to 10 per cent of people affected by income loss, unemployment or ill health during the outbreak are likely to experience post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

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The report was co-authored by associate director of research for the Centre for Science in Policy, Diplomacy and Society Dr Anne Bardsley and Sir Peter Gluckman, the former Prime Minister's Chief Science Advisor.

It drew on several international publications, including recent research from the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

The study said New Zealanders would feel the effects of Covid-19 for at least two years.

"No part of society will cope well with a roller coaster ride of moving up and down levels of restriction," it noted.

However, not all the predictions outlined in the study, titled The future is now: Implications of Covid-19 for New Zealand, were negative.

New Zealand was in a unique and "very enviable" position, given that it would likely eliminate the virus with many fewer deaths than other countries.

"Resilience is not only about coping with stress, it is about taking advantage of crises and coming out stronger," the report said.

The paper is the first in a series of reports by the think-tank exploring how different sectors could fare after the pandemic and possible solutions to the issues facing them.

It detailed several initial predictions for different industries.

CHRISTEL YARDLEY/STUFF Former chief science advisor to the Prime Minister, Sir Peter Gluckman, has co-authored a report on how Covid-19 could shape New Zealand's future.

THE ECONOMY

The report quoted estimates that the country's GDP could fall by more than 30 per cent due to the pandemic.

It quoted Treasury estimates that the unemployment rate could reach between 13 and 26 per cent depending on how long the country spends at different alert levels.

WORK

The pandemic will exacerbate socioeconomic inequities, as those on higher incomes are more likely to be able to work from home and weather brief periods of unemployment, according to the paper.

"Those who are on the wrong side of the digital divide have been seriously disadvantaged. We will need to address what the future of work means for lower-paid, blue collar workers whose role as essential workers has been amply demonstrated," it said.

HOUSING

The report claimed building homes could help increase employment and grow the economy after lockdown.

​But that would require the Government to invest more in public infrastructure and review existing regulations, it said.

EDUCATION

With people expected to work in 10 or more jobs during their lifetime, according the OECD, Kiwis would need better critical thinking and emotional self-regulation to succeed.

"Schools need to focus on transportable and generic skills so that pupils can later navigate a more fluid labour market," the report said.

As more people were likely to face unemployment, retraining needed to also focus on these skills.

OVERALL

The report said the disruption to New Zealanders' lives as a result of the pandemic could serve as a timely reminder for why it was important for the country to be prepared for future disasters.

It recommended New Zealand develop a thorough and transparent "risk register" which would detail how it could cope with other crises.

Gluckman said while the future was uncertain, New Zealanders could influence how the country responded to the coronavirus pandemic.



"The nature of the conversations needed to help New Zealand as a whole to move to a more secure, sustainable and resilient future requires innovative thinking from multiple perspectives.

"The magnitude of change following Covid-19 will be large. In this context trust, transparency and resilience will be critical."

WHERE TO GET HELP:

1737, Need to talk? - Free call or text 1737 to talk to a trained counsellor

Depression.org.nz - 0800 111 757 or text 4202

Lifeline – 0800 543 354

Suicide Crisis Helpline – 0508 828 865 (0508 TAUTOKO)

Kidsline – 0800 54 37 54 for people up to 18 years old. Open 24/7.

Youthline – 0800 376 633, free text 234, email talk@youthline.co.nz, or find online chat and other support options here.

Rural Support Trust - 0800 787 254

Samaritans – 0800 726 666

What's Up – 0800 942 8787 (for 5–18 year olds). Phone counselling available Monday-Friday, noon–11pm and weekends, 3pm–11pm. Online chat is available 3pm–10pm daily.

thelowdown.co.nz – Web chat, email chat or free text 5626

Anxiety New Zealand - 0800 ANXIETY (0800 269 4389)

Supporting Families in Mental Illness - 0800 732 825.



If it is an emergency click here to find the number for your local crisis assessment team. In a life-threatening situation call 111.