ok after the first minute i’ve made these observations:

you need to space out his forward fierce - throw out a random focus or two and see if you can catch him getting greedy.

when you’re unsure of whether store will whiff during a string, either use ex fireball, finish at low forward and walk back, or go for a delayed frame trap (walk forward - low strong/forward store etc). he didn’t punish the whiff but when you’re playing someone who knows the match well, you’re going to get punished every time.

in the corner, i can appreciate that you’re being patient and not just trying to pinwheel your way out, but just blocking and teching (especially when he’s not even in range to throw you - you need to distinguish the difference. eg. most characters can’t throw after 2 lights in a string bar kara throw characters and rose. so a typical tech pattern would be to tech those 2 and then stop… wait for them to get back into that range before you tech again. if you see them walking forward for a delay trap or throw, this is when you want to stand tech or boxer tech (mash short or jab) to stop the approach) is not the answer. you can try the teching options i just mentioned, plus using low or far forward at certain ranges to stop him doing whatever he wants.

second round, pretty much the same thing. you had 2 huge opportunities to setup the corner fake crossup 50/50 after a big fse punish and failed to do it. that’s your own problem.

more random observations:

non existent footsie really, you just stand there and let him poke at you.

constant storing at bad ranges… too close to be doing this and you’re still whiffing them in strings all over the place.

when you see him focus and you’re in range. do_a_fucking_pinwheel.

don’t throw non meaty mid fuhajins and chase them. you know they’re not going to put him in blockstun, so you’re just asking to be punished.

you can stand tech, mash buttons and easily reaction block the ex slash. don’t EVER get hit by that, seriously.

your anti air really needs some work, it’s very weak. at least, against this guy.

around 6:00 mark. you’ve been respectful for way too long, fucking pinwheel and let him know you’re willing to reversal. he’s walking all over you for free and you’re not trying to do anything about it. deservedly getting bodied for it.

the way you being games/rounds is pretty bad to be honest. you seem to just do whatever you feel like doing rather than watching what he’s doing. he’s cornered you in around 5 seconds numerous times.

7:04 mark, free corner pressure and you’re doing nothing to take advantage. a jump in? just giving him a free way out. whiffing another store? same thing. no frame traps? he’s been crouch blocking for 5 seconds… fucking overhead him lol. after all that you just let him out of the corner for free too.

again you put him in the corner, pretty much the same result.

numerous time you just get hit by a normal on wakeup… what’s going on? you just let go of your stick?

when people jump at you from close range, use crouch fierce or go air to air. crouch strong is just asking to be blown up.

pretty crappy corner pressure again too. you really, really need to work on that.

this reply is huge enough and i’ve given you enough info to work on that i’m not going to watch the second video. all the problems you had were basically problems with your own game and not the matchup or anything else in particular. he was just good at exposing your flaws.