Hillary Clinton has led Donald Trump in 81 percent of the public polls collected by RealClearPolitics since July 2015. | Getty 5 numbers that mattered this week

Continuing our POLITICO feature, where we dig into the latest polls and loop in other data streams to tell the story of the 2016 campaign. Here are five numbers that mattered this week.





The polls were right all along.

Even as pundits and journalists – including this reporter – questioned the durability of Trump’s lead among Republican voters, Trump remained on top of the GOP field from the time he seized the mantle in early July 2015. And after defying the conventional wisdom and becoming the apparent Republican presidential nominee, some are suggesting there’s peril in underestimating Trump again.

While it’s true that the likely general-election match-up between Trump and Hillary Clinton will narrow from Clinton’s 7-point lead in the HuffPost Pollster average as of Friday afternoon, there’s little doubt that Trump is a decided underdog to win that race. The most recent live-caller poll, from CNN/ORC, gives Clinton a 13-point lead.

How robust is Clinton’s lead? Of the 64 national polls since July 2015 collected by RealClearPolitics, Trump led Clinton in only 6 of them, or about 9 percent of the time. Adding in the three polls that showed them tied, Clinton has led Trump in 81 percent of the public polls.

By contrast, of the 101 national GOP preference polls conducted since July 2015 and collected by RCP, Trump led all but 6 of them, for a 94-percent lead rate.

Trump may, in fact, overcome the odds against him and win the presidency this fall. But Trump would have to reverse his polling deficit to win the general election — a different feat than validating his advantage in his own party in the face of disbelieving media and party elites.





The Washington GOP establishment is still coming to grips with Trump as the party’s nominee, but party voters had mostly come around, even before Trump knocked out his two rivals this week in Indiana.

The CNN/ORC poll this week, conducted before Tuesday’s Indiana primary, showed 84 percent of Republican voters would choose Trump over Clinton in a then-hypothetical general-election matchup.

That seems like an overwhelming share, but it’s also a red flag: Clinton, by comparison, wins 94 percent of Democrats. Trump has significant problems with independents and Democrats, and he can ill afford to surrender Republican votes.

Still, the survey was conducted prior to Ted Cruz and John Kasich leaving the race. Trump’s challenge is to unify the party – a task potentially made more difficult by the refusal of some GOP leaders, like House Speaker Paul Ryan, to rally around his candidacy.

But watch the next round of polls to see if Republican voters get there first and deliver a Trump bump.





Turnout in the GOP presidential primaries this year is up 64 percent, according to a new analysis from the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies.

More than 25 million voters have cast ballots in the GOP presidential nominating contest, not including the three states where no presidential-preference polls were held (Colorado, North Dakota and Wyoming).

That’s a massive increase from the 2012 race, when 15.3 million votes were cast to this point.

As for Democrats, turnout is down about 17 percent from their record-setting 2008 primary. About 21.6 million votes have been cast, compared to 26.1 million eight years ago.





The Public Opinion Strategies study also analyzed exit-poll data collected in 25 states thus far, aggregating the candidates’ performance among numerous demographic groups.

And the weighted analysis shows age remains the most significant cleavage in the Democratic race.

More than seven-in-10 voters under age 30 have supported Bernie Sanders, the analysis shows, compared to only 28 percent for Clinton.

That’s a significantly larger gap than in 2008, when Barack Obama led Clinton among young voters, 61 percent to 35 percent.

But just as Sanders is running up greater margins among young voters, Clinton’s advantage with seniors exceeds eight years ago, when she led Obama among voters 65 and older, 60 percent to 36 percent.

This year, 72 percent of voters 65 and over have supported Clinton, compared to 26 percent for Sanders.

And, underscoring Clinton’s overall advantage, seniors have comprised 21 percent of the Democratic electorate, compared to under-30 voters at 17 percent. Both groups make up slightly larger shares of the electorate than they did in 2008, the analysis shows.





According to a new study from two professors at Emory University in Atlanta, Democratic congressional candidates are getting a better deal on their media advertising.

A research paper published by Gregory Martin and Zachary Peskowitz – which matched expenditure data from Federal Election Commission records for the 2010, 2012 and 2014 cycles with Nielsen data cataloging ad placements – finds that Democrats get about 40 percent more advertising impressions for their outlays.

Part of that may be the result of smarter buying. That was certainly the case in the 2012 presidential race, when Obama, whose campaign made their reservations earlier to lock in lower rates, was out-advertising Mitt Romney nearly two-to-one in the closing days of the campaign. (So far, neither Trump nor Clinton have made any reservations for the fall. The pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA has locked down swing-state ads.)

But, the paper suggests, GOP consulting firms may be capturing a larger share of advertising dollars than their Democratic counterparts. That’s especially true for Republican candidates in less competitive races, the paper finds. These candidates are paying large markups for their ads, suggesting that they have less incentive “to monitor consultant behavior” as “a laissez-faire attitude towards campaign expenditures is unlikely to swing the result.”

In all, consulting firms have placed about $1.2 billion in TV ad spending over the course of the past three congressional election cycles.