The future of the ANC is being decided at an extended ANC NEC meeting in Irene. But another party’s future is also at stake. As Mmusi Maimane well knows, the DA’s prospects are directly affected by the decisions that the ANC does (or doesn’t) make. By SIMON ALLISON.

“I’m on tenterhooks,” said Mmusi Maimane, as he awaits the outcome of the ANC’s National Executive Committee meeting in Irene.

And so he should be: Maimane knows that what happens behind those closed doors will determine not just the future of President Jacob Zuma and the ANC, but could also alter his own future, and that of the Democratic Alliance.

Realpolitik dictates that as much as Zuma’s departure might be good for the country, it probably won’t be good news for opposition parties. If the ANC is seen to deal decisively with its Zuma problem, it is likely to be rewarded in the polls in 2019 – at the expense of opposition parties, no doubt.

Which explains why Maimane is so keen, at a briefing for foreign journalists in Johannesburg on Monday, to emphasise that Zuma is just the tip of a dirty, corrupt iceberg.

“It’s like a crime scene. You can remove the head of the mafia, but the mafia is still there,” he said. “It’s not just Jacob Zuma, it’s a united crime syndicate.”

Maimane makes the point that the ANC’s dismal performance in the local government elections – with the DA doing well at the ruling party’s expense – was not just about Zuma. “It’s true that the ANC got punished partly because of Zuma, but not completely true… If the ANC lost 8% in the last election, how much of this is attributable to Zuma? How much to the economy? And how much to corruption?”

But Maimane does not believe that a new leader will solve these endemic issues. “If you asked me this question a year ago, I’d say that Cyril Ramaphosa would do a good job. But this year I’ve seen him vote for Jacob Zuma, praise Jacob Zuma, and effectively become number one’s defender. You can have the veneer that says that ANC can be modernised or resuscitated, but at its core it can’t. So if the ANC is going to sustain itself, it can’t elect a leader from the current NEC. There’s just too many examples of high levels of corruption amongst that bunch,” said Maimane.

Even as the ANC deals with its mess, so Maimane is confronting a scandal within his own party. Shayne Ramsey, DA ward councillor for Seapoint, wrote a Facebook post on Friday in which she attacked homeless people in the area, and called for residents to help her to remove the “grime”. The post was widely criticised for its dog whistle racist langauge; on these pages, Andrew Ihsan Gasnolar condemned Ramsey for employing “the politics of fear, hatred and privilege”.

For Maimane, the incident is deeply troubling. He’s spent a lot of time and energy combatting perceptions that the DA is a white party; on that front, Ramsey’s comments are a major setback. “That project by that particular councillor is inconsistent with our values. I would not stand for such actions,” he said.

Nonetheless, he has no intention of taking immediate action against the offending councillor. “I started the process by saying let the mayor of Cape Town investigate this. Second the council must investigate…I want the city to deal with this first.” It’s a strange response, and one that echoes the way that senior officials within the ANC often hide behind procedural technicalities to avoid having to deal directly with an issue. As party leader, Ramsey is surely Maimane’s problem; surely he should take the lead in dealing with it?

Maimane, however, is clearly focussed on the opportunity presented by the 2019 election. He knows the DA cannot win outright, but he thinks that for the first time in post-apartheid South African history, there is a real chance that the ANC may dip under 50% of the vote – with or without Zuma. If so, the coalition model being deployed to allow Herman Mashaba to run Johannesburg might just propel Maimane into the presidency, provided the EFF play ball. Maimane maintains that the model is working: “I think the coalitions are going well. …We’ve had some tough ones, we’ve had some difficult council meetings…But it works because we have a common enemy,” he said.

This is a crucial point. Right now, the DA and the EFF are united by their opposition to Zuma. But what happens if Zuma really does go? Under new leadership, could the ANC entice Malema back into the fold? Can the DA run Johannesburg on its own?

As Maimane said, he’s on tenterhooks. So is the country. DM

Photo: Democratic Alliance parliamentary leader Mmusi Maimane speaks at a news conference at Parliament on Friday, 14 November 2014 following raucous behaviour in the House which culminated in fisticuffs and scuffles. Picture: Nardus Engelbrecht/SAPA