Lionsgate’s third installment in the John Wick franchise arrives with a wave of buzz this weekend, as the studio hopes to turn its mid-range budgeted R rated action flick into a legitimate summer tentpole, offering up an appealing alternative to the waves of PG and PG-13 rated blockbusters. Meanwhile, A Dog’s Journey hopes to recapture some of its predecessors success, while Warner’s romance The Sun is Also a Star seems about as close to dead on arrival as a film can get.

When the first John Wick launched in October of 2014, it was a modest success, opening to around $14 million and tripling that over the fall season. In 2017, the sequel opened well above expectations, more than doubling its predecessor and creating a new wave of fans. By the third installment, demand has grown even more steadily, as the past two films have built up quite a large audience on home video through word of mouth. Based on the excellent reviews and early presales, John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum could legitimately be looking at an opening north of $45 million, which would be a huge success, and enough for first place in a very crowded May weekend.

Lionsgate has been very smart with how they have marketed the franchise; Chapter 2‘s release date was based on the success of films such as Kingsman: The Secret Service and Deadpool, who utilized the Valentine’s Day release date by counter-programming with violent, R rated titles. However, by positioning Chapter 3 in the month of May, it gives it much more of an event film feeling, especially as the culmination to the story which ended on a cliffhanger in Chapter 2.

The other titles opening this weekend won’t come close to Parabellum, though they may have some success targeting younger audiences. A Dog’s Journey is technically the sequel to 2017’s A Dog’s Purpose, though not to be confused with Sony’s spin-off A Dog’s Way Home from earlier this year. While Universal did have a solid win with their 2017 title, the inclusion of the Sony release may confuse audiences who thought they just saw the sequel back in January. Regardless, targeting family audiences right before Aladdin and right after Detective Pikachu is certainly questionable, especially since Purpose didn’t have nearly as much competition when it launched in late January of 2017. If Journey can at least make more than Way Home, it should be considered a success.

Finally, Warner Brothers seems to have a misfire on their hands with The Sun Is Also a Star, a drama based on the YA novel of the same name. Unfortunately, general interest and presales signal an opening in the mid-to-low single digits, more in line with something like The Darkest Minds and less in the realm of past hits like The Fault In Our Stars or Me Before You.

In terms of holdovers, Detective Pikachu and Avengers: Endgame will both likely be at around $25-35 million for the weekend.

Predictions

John Wick: Chapter 3 – $47.5 million Avengers: Endgame – $32 million Pokemon: Detective Pikachu – $25 million A Dog’s Journey – $10 million The Hustle – $6.5 million

The Sun Is Also a Star – $4.2 million