The McClatchy Newspapers have a story today about the "mysterious" lower level of combat troop deaths in August, over 50% lower than the deaths in May. Bill O'Reilly trumpeted the lower levels of dead when the monthly totals went from over 100 dead for a few months this year to down around 80. Here are the numbers and the most honest way to look at them, presented as the date (year.month) followed by the total number of U.S. troops killed in Iraq, not just those "killed in combat".

7.01 83 7.02 81 7.03 81 7.04 104 7.05 126 7.06 101 7.07 79 7.08 81

The average monthly total (68) and the median monthly total (69) for the war so far are very close to one another, but both have been climbing steadily for about a year, as the last time the monthly total was less than 70 was August 2006, when 66 American soldiers lost their lives. At the time, that number was both above the average and above the median.

Whether you count a year from January 1 to December 31 or from the anniversary of the war's beginning in March 2003, no year has seen 1,000 U.S. troops killed so far. But unless the rest of the year brings the average deaths per month down instead of up, 2007 will be the first year to see that grim threshold surpassed.

The war saps our treasury, kills our fellow citizens, lowers our prestige and the respect for the rule of law around the world, but as long as government officials are willing to lie and distort and change the subject and parse terms in ways that would have enraged Republicans if Bill Clinton did it, we will not see the end of this folly.

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Now blogging at

lotsasplainin.blogspot.com

About author Matthew Hubbard teaches math at several colleges in the San Francisco Bay Area.