Article content continued

On its face this is far from a disaster for the Conservatives. The party’s core 30 per cent support is resilient and not likely to move elsewhere, given the two opposition parties’ positioning on the centre-left. From that solid footing it’s feasible, a matter of a strong debate performance or two, a telling misstep by an opponent, for Harper to retake the lead. Mulcair’s surge, though interesting, is no Rachel Notley wave, at present, nor is Trudeau’s recent decline a rout. It appears many voters are simply waiting for the face-to-face contests that begin next month, or not paying attention. So everything about this can change.

We apologize, but this video has failed to load.

tap here to see other videos from our team. Try refreshing your browser, or

The worry for Conservative supporters, though, is that no Harper minority can be expected to last, this time. A small minority is likely to be overturned immediately by a combined bloc of New Democrat and Liberal MPs — if the current dynamic holds, with Mulcair leading. A larger Harper minority, upwards of 150 seats, might conceivably survive into 2016, depending on the inducements offered the opposition. But either way, anything but a majority means the Harper era is finished. Because he’s had his 10 years, Conservative leadership jockeying will move into the open almost immediately following the loss of majority status.

It follows from this that Harper must swing for the fences, the 170 seats, if he wishes to hang onto his job. And therein lies the rub: He cannot win such a mandate without popular support in the high 30s or low 40s, and the roughly 10 per cent gap from here to there can only be filled by the addition of swing voters, Red Tories, Blue Liberals, however one wishes to describe them. These people are by definition not partisan, and so will not likely be amenable to the chest-beating of strident figures such as Poilievre, Paul Calandra and Chris Alexander. Moderate voters are far more likely to be swayed by the likes of Lisa Raitt, or Harper himself, when he bothers to make the effort to appeal to the centre.

The mystery, just now, is that he isn’t doing that, but rather seems content to hang back, coasting on last year’s talking points and the hooting of less talented Conservatives. Perhaps he’s biding his time — or has made his peace with moving on? Either way, it’s a curious way to fight, with so much riding on the outcome.

National Post



Twitter.com/mdentandt