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Well here we are folks, the final hours where the Cruz campaign, oh wait, sorry… Ahem… the final hours of the Conservatives United for Cruz and Kasich (CUCK) campaign is still viable to win on the first ballot.

After tonight, the Cruz part of the CUCK campaign is completely mathematically eliminated from the first ballot, even if they obtain every single remaining delegate in the upcoming states. How much will Donald Trump win from these states tonight? Lets have a look at the delegate outlook:

Connecticut

Poll Date Sample MoE Trump Kasich Cruz Spread RCP Average 4/10 – 4/24 — — 52.8 26.5 14.5 Trump +26.3

Early on, this looking like it could have been an interesting primary contest tonight. Unfortunately, the most recent polling has Donald Trump increasing his already YUGE lead here above the 50% mark he needs to turn the At Large Delegates winner take all. It will be interesting to see how the polling for Cruz holds up given his is nearing 10% in a bunch of these states tonight in the pre-election polling. Connecticut will give almost all of its delegates to Trump tonight barring some weird Kasich wins in some of it’s congressional districts.

I predict a 25 delegate haul for Trump here.

State Type Allocation Method Voter Access Threshold Requirement Winner Take All If >50% At Large Delegates (AL) Congressional District Delegates (CD) Connecticut Primary Proportional At Large/ Winner Take All CD Closed 20.00% YES (At Large) 13 15

Delaware

Poll Date Sample MoE Trump Kasich Cruz Spread Gravis 4/17 – 4/18 1038 LV 3 55 18 15 Trump +37

Trump’s most recent, and only viable polling for this state, shows him far and away the winner here in this winner take all state. Delaware has 16 delegates up for grabs tonight for the winner of the primary.

I expect Trump to take this state and its 16 delegates.

State Type Allocation Method Voter Access Threshold Requirement Winner Take All If >50% At Large Delegates (AL) Delaware Primary Winner Take All Closed NO N/A 16

Maryland

Poll Date Sample MoE Trump Kasich Cruz Spread RCP Average 4/10 – 4/21 — — 47.7 26.7 21.7 Trump +21.0

In any case, Trump has led consistently in every poll taken in this state. Even worse for the Nevertrump: Conservatives United for Cruz and Kasich campaign, it is winner take all at large and congressional district. I’ve been told by people in the “know” that Maryland will be the interesting state to watch tonight, largely due to Trump’s lower level of support here than other states in the region based on the last PPP poll taken showing only a 15 point gap between him and Kasich. The most recent Gravis poll shows Trump padding his lead again.

Think reverse Wisconsin.

I expect around 32 Delegates or more for Trump here.

State Type Allocation Method Voter Access Threshold Requirement Winner Take All If >50% At Large Delegates (AL) Congressional District Delegates (CD) Maryland* Primary Winner Take All CD/ At Large Closed NO N/A 14 24

NOTE: Maryland directly elects congressional district Delegates as pledged Delegates. Everyone voting must flip over their ballot and select their delegates.

Pennsylvania

Poll Date Sample MoE Trump Cruz Kasich Spread RCP Average 4/11 – 4/24 — — 46.6 26.4 22.2 Trump +20.2

This is Cruz’s best state in the northeastern primary. Everyone should congratulate him now that he has finally cracked 25%!

Please clap…

The polling average is lower here for Trump than the most recent polling for Pennsylvania. It could be reflecting a last minute Trump surge, or just a blip. We’ll find out when the polls close today.

At least 17 delegates for Trump here. He has put forth a slate of 41 delegates so he could end the night with potentially 50 delegates or more (pledged+unbound).

This is also not counting those delegates who didn’t state a preference before the primary vote today, but instead stated that they would vote for their district winner. It is worth noting that super delegate genius Ted Cruz has also failed to submit even half of a slate of delegates tonight.

Trump’s Voter Card:

Additional Candidates Not on the Voter Card:

Trump supporters in the 1st Congressional District have no choice. Only three are apparently running in the district, but fortunately, two out of three (third delegate is Seth Kaufer) are voting with the district.

2nd district: vote for Elizabeth Havey and Calvin Tucker (who will take the district’s vote into consideration) and Aaron Cohen over committed Cruz delegate Aldridk Gessa.

6th district: vote for Larry Stohler (will vote for the district winner) with Trump’s only has 2 of the three slots filled.

7th District: vote for Michael Puppio (will vote for the district winner).

12th District: vote for James Vasilko first, then any two of these three: Gabriel Keller, Joseph Matthew Sernell, Monica Morrill.

14th District: write in Cheryl Freedman and Kimberly Mack.

16th district: Trump only has one delegate on his slate, so vote for David Dumeyer and Terry Christopher (will vote for the district winner).

State Type Allocation Method Voter Access Threshold Requirement Winner Take All If >50% At Large Delegates (AL) Congressional District Delegates (CD) Pennsylvania* Primary Winner Take All At Large/ CD Delegate Election Closed NO N/A 17 54*

NOTE: Pennsylvania elects Congressional District Delegates directly as unpledged/unbound delegates. The state committee stipulates Delegates: “shall run at large within the Districts and shall not be officially committed to any particular candidate on the ballot.”

Rhode Island

Poll Date Sample MoE Trump Kasich Cruz Spread RCP Average 4/19 – 4/24 — — 52.3 23 12.3 Trump +29.3 PPP (D)* 4/22 – 4/24 511 LV — 61 23 13 Trump +38 Gravis 4/23 – 4/24 566 LV — 58 21 10 Trump +37

Rhode island may end up being Trump’s best state so far in this primary. Unfortunately, this state is also proportional. However, if he wins over 67% in either of its two congressional districts, he gets two of the three delegates as reward. As the polls above show, Trump is getting mighty close to that number. As the state is calculated by at large and congressional district, Trump is limited in his haul from this state.

I expect 9-10 delegates from this state for Trump.

State Type Allocation Method Voter Access Threshold Requirement Winner Take All If >50% At Large Delegates (AL) Congressional District Delegates (CD) Rhode Island Primary Proportional At Large/ Winner Take Most C-District Open I/R 10.00% N/A 13 6

So there we are folks. This is the delegate outlook for tonight, stay tuned to see how it all turned out. Trump could be looking at adding around 140 delegates to his lead tonight (including unbound delegates from Pennsylvania), bringing him to a hefty 985 total delegates. We should be receiving the first calls shortly after 8 pm EST right around when the polls close.