Many believe that the end of the Queen's reign is the time for Australia to become a republic. But history shows us that the inevitability of the republic is a myth. The hard work needs to begin now in order to move in that direction, writes Benjamin T Jones.

The inevitability of an Australian republic is a myth so often spouted that it is accepted as fact with little scrutiny.

In a sense, this vindicates the republican position. It suggests that Australia's natural position, its very destiny, is republican. Of course Australia is an independent nation, of course an Australian should be our head of state and of course in a democracy, every public position should be open to our citizens, not exclusively reserved on the basis of class and privilege. Of course, we are told, Australia will inevitably become a republic.

The fallacy of the inevitability myth becomes clear when Australia's republican history is examined. In September 1850 a shocking headline was splashed across the pages of Dublin's Freeman's Journal; 'the United States of the Australian Republic'.

'To many ears', it continued, 'the title ... will sound strange, if not ridiculous, but only as much as that of the Independent United States of North America did to our ancestors in the early days of Good King George'.

When Australia's greatest colonial republican, Dr John Dunmore Lang, published Freedom and Independence for the Golden Lands of Australia in 1852 it followed on from his republican lectures known as 'The Coming Event'. Over a century and a half ago, an Australian republic seemed inevitable to many in both Australia and Britain.

Throughout the Victorian era, Australia's republican future was often acknowledged but seen as some distant event. In 1853, Henry Parkes' Empire reprinted an article from England's Daily News (a progressive paper started by Charles Dickens) suggesting that an Australian republic 'will probably bear discussion some 200 years hence'.

The republic was put forward again in the 1880s and 1890s by the Bulletin and other radical journals. In the early twentieth century Aboriginal activists and anti-conscription campaigners held republican sympathies. When Donald Horne penned his iconic Lucky Country in 1964, he suggested Australia simply needed a gentle push towards the republic and we would find the monarchical door is lightly locked.

In 1998, the Constitutional Convention held in Canberra decided that a republican model with minimal change to the current system would be put to the public in a referendum the following year. Offended that the president would be appointed by parliament not popularly elected, Ted Mack, Phil Cleary and Clem Jones formed a group called the Real Republicans. This group actively fought against the 1999 referendum and were part of the official No campaign. Again, their actions were guided by an unshakable belief in the inevitability of an Australian republic and the mistaken assumption that another referendum would soon follow.

The insidious aspect of the myth of inevitability is that it draws republicans into a false sense of security and breeds a general apathy in the broader polis. It demotes this crucial piece of nation building and public policy to a second order concern. In the 1850s republicans were told that the Crimean War was the pressing issue and defensive plans against imagined Russian aggression were devised. At the turn of the century republicans were told to take modest steps and to accept dominion status as a colonial promotion. The Statute of Westminster, Curtin's 'Look to America' speech, the adoption of Advance Australia Fair and the passage of the Australian Acts were are all seen as tentative steps towards an inevitable future.

The current argument du jour from the inevitable republic school is that the end of Queen Elizabeth II's reign will be the catalyst for full independence. History screams against the experiment. The British monarchy is chameleon-like in its ability to adapt and change with the times. Beginning with the beheading of Charles I and culminating with the Glorious Revolution of 1688, England categorically rejected the concepts of divine right and absolute monarchy. In the wake of the European Enlightenment and the American Revolution, monarchy evolved into a symbolic and patriotic icon. As Walter Bagehot phrased it in his canonical 1867 text, The English Constitution, monarchy's new role was not to rule but to advise and inspire.

By the time a reigning British monarch finally visited Australia nearly a century later, the transformation was complete. Set against a Cold War back drop in 1954, when the Queen first visited Australia she was seen as a symbol of freedom and democracy as opposed to slavish communism. Country MP, Hugh Robertson gushed that her presence affirmed 'our faith in our democratic systems'. When she returned in 1988 to open our new parliament house, opposition Liberal leader, John Howard acknowledged her as 'the pinnacle of our democracy'.

This is precisely why a republic is not inevitable. The British monarchy has a proven record of remarkable adaptability to suit the times. Despite the dictatorial powers afforded to the British monarch in our constitution, through protocol and practice, it is seen as a powerless and inoffensive titular head that is worth preserving. Despite the inherent elitism and privilege, monarchy has somehow morphed into a symbol of Westminster democracy.

The British royal family are now international celebrities. They travel the world meeting leaders, waving to crowds and supporting charities. With over half a million Twitter followers, we can be sure the royals will continue to adapt and try to find a place of relevance even as the head of modern, secular democracies.

Although a decade has come and gone since the failed republican referendum, the inevitability myth persists in both Australia and the United Kingdom. On the eve of Australia Day 2011, British broadcasting legend Sir Michael Parkinson opined that it was only a matter of time. The same year, editor of Adelaide's Advertiser Melvin Mansell reinforced the idea that, in the long run, a republic is inevitable. In a 2013 article for The Conversation, Geoff Gallop presented a powerful counter-argument. An Australian republic was not inevitable in the 1850s or 1960s and it is not inevitable now.

The myth of inevitability sucks the life out of republicans and all patriotic Australians. With the false hope that it will somehow happen of its own volition, we excuse ourselves from duty safe in the knowledge that the hard work of nation building will be done by another, nobler generation at some distant date. We pretend that we will not have to engage in spirited debate about political models or deep philosophical conversations about identity. Our leaders in Canberra wait for a groundswell of support while the people wait for leadership. Meanwhile nothing is done.

If we believe, like Bob Hawke, Malcolm Turnbull and others, that the end of the Queen's reign is the time to become a republic, then the hard work needs to begin now. If we truly believe in democracy and egalitarianism then we need a political system that allows any of our citizens to rise to the top on merit not birthright. If we have a passion for Australia and believe in the talent and spirit of our people then we must have faith that one of our own can serve as head of state just as well as a British monarch. What we must not do is fool ourselves into thinking we can sit on the political sidelines, impotent and apathetic, and expect great things to happen.

Midnight Oil famously sang of East Timor, 'independence just won't come to you in the brief of a diplomat'. They may have well been singing about their native land. There is nothing inevitable about an Australian republic but it is possible. If enough of us have a passion for Australia, it will happen. If enough of us demand a constitution that reflects our democratic and egalitarian values, it will happen. If enough of us insist that our children should be able to rise all the way to the top, it will happen. Australia is blessed and no war or bloodshed will be needed to become a republic. All that is needed is a generation willing to say our first loyalty is to the Commonwealth of Australia. Then we will be able to sing without qualification, we are indeed young and free.

Dr Benjamin T. Jones teaches history at the University of Western Sydney. He is the co-editor of Project Republic. View his full profile here.