article updated September 8, 2009 ( 2014 update

note: an up-to-date interactive graph and some reflections on the changes brought about in the last 5 years can be found at an up-to-date interactive graph and some reflections on the changes brought about in the last 5 years can be found at a history of hard drive cost (update)

When I got my first computer in the early nineties, I remember wondering how I could possibly fill all 30 megabytes of hard drive space, even if I had a thousand years.

A decade and a half later, on a sunny August afternoon, I decided that it was time to invest in a terabyte drive. A terabyte. Seriously?

How did this 100,000x increase in needed space happen without me really noticing? I mean, it was always exciting when the next big milestone in storage space/cost was hit, but I never really took a step back and thought about the sheer scale of it.

I decided to dig up some historical pricing data in order to see how the cost of a gigabyte has changed over the last 30 years. Of course a gigabyte was a laughable concept to all but true 13375 back in the '80s, but it's a nice middle-of-the-road magnitude for the purpose of charting.

The data confirms it: there is a very strong exponential correlation in space/cost ratio (r=0.9916). Over the last 30 years, space per unit cost has doubled roughly every 14 months (increasing by an order of magnitude every 48 months). The regression equation is given by:

Several terabyte+ drives have recently broken the $0.10/gigabyte barrier, making the next milestone $0.01/gigabyte, or $10/terabyte. This is cause for skepticism among even the most ardent believers in the exponential progress of technology. How long can this trend last? Are we nearing the end of the Moore's Law era?

Stop back in fourteen months to find out.

Data

Date Drive info Size (MB) Cost $/GB 1980 January Morrow Designs 26 $5,000.00 $193,000.00 1980 July North Star 18 $4,199.00 $233,000.00 1981 September Apple 5 $3,500.00 $700,000.00 1981 November Seagate 5 $1,700.00 $340,000.00 1981 December VR Data Corp. 6.3 $2,895.00 $460,000.00 1981 December Morrow Designs 10 $2,999.00 $300,000.00 1981 December Morrow Designs 10 $2,949.00 $295,000.00 1981 December VR Data Corp. 19 $5,495.00 $289,000.00 1981 December Morrow Designs 20 $3,829.00 $191,000.00 1981 December Morrow Designs 26 $3,949.00 $152,000.00 1981 December Morrow Designs 26 $3,599.00 $138,000.00 1982 March Xebec $260,000.00 1983 December Corvus 6 $1,895.00 $316,000.00 1983 December Corvus 10 $2,695.00 $270,000.00 1983 December Xcomp 10 $1,895.00 $190,000.00 1983 December Corvus 20 $3,495.00 $175,000.00 1983 December Davong 10 $1,650.00 $165,000.00 1983 December Xcomp 16 $2,095.00 $131,000.00 1983 December Davong 21 $2,495.00 $119,000.00 1984 March Percom/Tandon 5 $1,399.00 $280,000.00 1984 March 5 $1,349.00 $270,000.00 1984 March Percom/Tandon 10 $1,699.00 $170,000.00 1984 March 10 $1,599.00 $160,000.00 1984 March Percom/Tandon 15 $2,095.00 $140,000.00 1984 March 15 $1,999.00 $133,000.00 1984 March Percom/Tandon 20 $2,399.00 $120,000.00 1984 March 20 $2,359.00 $118,000.00 1984 May Tecmar 5 $1,495.00 $299,000.00 1984 May Corvus 6 $1,695.00 $283,000.00 1984 May Corvus 11 $2,350.00 $214,000.00 1984 May Comrex 10 $1,995.00 $200,000.00 1984 May CTI 11 $1,995.00 $181,000.00 1984 May Davong 10 $1,645.00 $165,000.00 1984 May Corvus 20 $3,150.00 $158,000.00 1984 May Davong 15 $2,095.00 $140,000.00 1984 May Davong 21 $2,495.00 $119,000.00 1984 May Pegasus (Great Lakes) 10 $1,075.00 $108,000.00 1984 May Pegasus (Great Lakes) 23 $1,845.00 $80,000.00 1985 July First Class Peripherals 10 $710.00 $71,000.00 1987 October Iomega 10 $899.00 $90,000.00 1987 October Iomega 20 $1,199.00 $60,000.00 1987 October Iomega 40 $1,799.00 $45,000.00 1988 May 20 $799.00 $40,000.00 1988 May 30 $995.00 $33,000.00 1988 May 45 $1,195.00 $27,000.00 1988 May 60 $1,795.00 $30,000.00 1988 May 250 $3,995.00 $16,000.00 1989 March Western Digital 20 $899.00 $53,000.00 1989 March Western Digital 40 $1,199.00 $36,000.00 1989 September $12,000.00 1990 September $9,000.00 1991 September $7,000.00 1992 September $4,000.00 1993 September $2,000.00 1994 September $950.00 1995 January Seagate 1,000 $849.00 $850.00 1995 January Seagate 1,700 $1,499.00 $880.00 1995 January Seagate 2,100 $1,699.00 $810.00 1995 January Seagate 2,900 $2,899.00 $990.00 1995 April 240 $250.00 $1,260.00 1995 April 420 $320.00 $922.00 1995 April 520 $380.00 $884.00 1995 April 850 $470.00 $669.00 1995 April 1,000 $625.00 $756.00 1995 April 1,200 $680.00 $686.00 1996 June 10 Western Digital 1,600 $399.99 $295.00 1996 August 14 IBM 1,760 $379.99 $263.00 1996 August 14 Maxtor 2,000 $439.99 $259.00 1996 September Quantum 2,500 $440.00 $207.00 1996 September Quantum 3,200 $469.00 $173.00 1997 August 13 Western Digital 2,100 $329.99 $181.00 1997 August 13 Western Digital 3,100 $399.99 $148.00 1997 August 13 Western Digital 4,000 $490.99 $141.00 1997 August 24 Western Digital 2,100 $279.99 $153.00 1997 August 24 Western Digital 3,100 $329.99 $122.00 1997 August 24 Maxtor 3,500 $359.99 $118.00 1997 August 24 Maxtor 4,300 $439.99 $118.00 1997 August 24 Western Digital 5,100 $459.99 $104.00 1997 September 5 Maxtor 7,000 $669.99 $110.00 1997 November 29 Western Digital 3,200 $289.00 $104.00 1997 November 29 Quantum 3,200 $285.00 $102.00 1997 November 29 Quantum 4,300 $379.00 $101.00 1997 November 29 Western Digital 4,300 $365.00 $97.60 1997 November 29 Quantum 6,400 $475.00 $85.40 1997 November 29 Western Digital 6,400 $445.00 $80.00 1997 December 3 Western Digital 5,100 $449.99 $101.00 1997 December 3 Quantum 6,400 $549.99 $98.80 1997 December 3 Maxtor 5,200 $438.99 $97.10 1997 December 3 Maxtor 7,000 $579.99 $95.30 1997 December 3 Maxtor 8,400 $679.99 $93.10 1998 January 16 Western Digital 6,400 $529.99 $95.20 1998 January 16 Quantum 4,300 $349.99 $93.60 1998 January 16 Quantum 6,400 $479.99 $86.30 1998 January 16 Maxtor 8,400 $83.90 1998 February 3 5,200 $355.00 $78.50 1998 February 3 6,400 $435.00 $78.20 1998 April 2 Maxtor 5,100 $379.99 $85.70 1998 April 2 Maxtor 4,300 $319.99 $85.60 1998 April 2 Western Digital 6,400 $74.30 1998 April 2 Quantum 6,400 $339.99 $61.10 1998 April 4 5,200 $349.00 $77.20 1998 April 4 Maxtor 4,300 $76.30 1998 April 4 6,400 $370.00 $66.50 1998 April 4 5,200 $300.00 $66.30 1998 April 4 9,000 $499.00 $63.80 1998 April 17 Fujitsu 4,300 $282.00 $75.40 1998 April 17 Fujitsu 5,200 $331.00 $73.20 1998 April 17 Fujitsu 6,400 $368.00 $66.10 1998 May 2 Seagate 6,400 $349.99 $62.90 1998 May 9 Seagate 6,400 $329.99 $59.30 1998 May 11 Fujitsu 3,200 $227.00 $81.60 1998 May 11 Fujitsu 4,300 $257.00 $68.70 1998 May 11 Fujitsu 5,200 $299.00 $66.10 1998 May 11 Fujitsu 6,400 $328.00 $58.90 1998 June 6 Maxtor 5,700 $299.99 $60.50 1998 June 12 Quantum 4,300 $228.00 $61.00 1998 June 12 Quantum 6,400 $298.00 $53.50 1998 July 15 5,200 $249.00 $55.10 1998 July 31 Western Digital IDE 5,100 $262.00 $59.10 1998 July 31 Fujitsu IDE 5,200 $252.00 $55.70 1998 July 31 Western Digital IDE 6,400 $294.00 $52.80 1998 July 31 Western Digital IDE 8,400 $382.00 $52.30 1998 July 31 Fujitsu IDE 6,400 $291.00 $52.30 1998 August 1 Western Digital EIDE 4,000 $54.60 1998 August 6 Western Digital EIDE 5,100 $46.40 1998 August 14 Fujitsu 6,400 $289.00 $51.90 1998 August 26 Seagate 6,400 $279.99 $50.30 1998 September 1 Maxtor UDMA 8,400 $379.99 $52.00 1998 September 1 Maxtor UDMA 6,800 $279.99 $47.40 1998 September 10 Western Digital EIDE 5,100 $47.90 1998 October 1 Quantum 6,400 $42.60 1999 February 12 Quantum 8,000 $299.99 $43.10 1999 February 26 Maxtor 8,400 $37.70 1999 February 26 Quantum 8,000 $36.50 1999 February 27 Quantum 19,200 $512.46 $30.70 1999 March 1 Fujitsu Ultra DMA 8,400 $253.00 $34.60 1999 March 1 Fujitsu Ultra DMA 10,200 $299.00 $33.70 1999 March 3 Fujitsu Ultra DMA 8,400 $235.00 $32.20 1999 March 3 Fujitsu Ultra DMA 10,200 $285.00 $32.10 1999 April 1 Fujitsu UDMA 10,200 $279.00 $31.50 1999 April 1 Fujitsu UDMA 8,400 $229.00 $31.40 1999 May 21 Fujitsu UDMA 6,400 $179.99 $32.30 1999 May 27 Fujitsu UDMA 10,200 $245.00 $27.60 1999 May 27 Fujitsu UDMA 8,400 $198.00 $27.10 1999 May 27 Fujitsu UDMA 17,300 $369.00 $24.50 1999 May 28 Maxtor UDMA 10,000 $249.99 $28.80 1999 July 21 Maxtor Ultra DMA 8,400 $199.99 $27.40 1999 July 30 Fujitsu UDMA 6,400 $139.99 $26.30 1999 September 25 10,200 $18.50 1999 October 1 Quantum CX UTA 66 10,200 $199.00 $22.40 1999 October 1 Quantum KA 7200 rpm 13,600 $249.00 $21.10 1999 October 1 Western Digital 20,000 $359.00 $20.60 1999 October 1 Western Digital 7200 rpm 27,300 $489.00 $20.60 1999 October 1 Quantum CX UTA 66 13,600 $219.00 $18.50 1999 December 1 Western Digital IDE 20,500 $398.00 $22.30 1999 December 1 Quantum IDE 18,200 $348.00 $22.00 1999 December 1 10,200 $189.00 $21.30 1999 December 1 Fujitsu IDE 10,200 $189.00 $21.30 1999 December 1 Fujitsu IDE 13,000 $208.00 $18.40 1999 December 1 13,000 $195.00 $17.30 1999 December 1 Fujitsu IDE 20,400 $299.00 $16.90 1999 December 1 Fujitsu IDE 17,300 $248.00 $16.50 1999 December 1 Fujitsu IDE 27,300 $388.00 $16.30 1999 December 1 17,300 $225.00 $15.00 2000 February 1 10,200 $175.00 $19.70 2000 February 1 Fujitsu 20,400 $299.00 $16.90 2000 February 1 Fujitsu 13,600 $199.00 $16.80 2000 February 1 12,900 $187.99 $16.80 2000 February 1 Fujitsu 13,600 $197.80 $16.70 2000 February 1 13,000 $186.00 $16.50 2000 February 1 Fujitsu 17,300 $238.00 $15.80 2000 February 1 Fujitsu 27,300 $375.00 $15.80 2000 February 1 Fujitsu 17,300 $232.30 $15.40 2000 February 1 17,300 $215.00 $14.30 2000 February 1 20,400 $211.99 $12.00 2000 April 1 IBM 20,500 $279.00 $15.70 2000 April 1 Maxtor 15,200 $199.00 $15.10 2000 April 1 Maxtor 7200 rpm 20,000 $259.00 $14.90 2000 April 1 Maxtor UDMA 15,000 $192.00 $14.70 2000 April 1 Seagate UDMA 17,200 $218.00 $14.60 2000 April 1 Seagate UDMA 28,000 $349.00 $14.30 2000 April 1 17,300 $215.00 $14.30 2000 April 1 IBM UDMA 5400 rpm 20,300 $245.00 $13.90 2000 April 1 Maxtor UDMA 17,000 $204.00 $13.80 2000 April 1 Maxtor 7200 rpm 27,000 $320.00 $13.60 2000 April 1 20,400 $239.00 $13.50 2000 April 1 Maxtor UDMA 36,500 $411.00 $13.00 2000 April 1 Maxtor UDMA 27,000 $299.00 $12.70 2000 April 1 Western Digital UDMA 20,000 $218.00 $12.50 2000 April 1 Maxtor UDMA 20,000 $217.00 $12.50 2000 April 1 Maxtor UDMA 30,000 $308.00 $11.80 2000 May 12 Western Digital Ultra ATA/66 5400 rpm 13,600 $179.99 $15.20 2000 May 12 Maxtor UDMA/66 7200 rpm 30,000 $319.99 $12.30 2000 May 12 Maxtor UDMA/66 7200 rpm 40,000 $399.99 $11.50 2000 June 2 Maxtor UDMA/66 5400 rpm 15,000 $189.99 $14.60 2000 August 1 Samsung 15,000 $162.00 $12.40 2000 August 1 Maxtor IDE 7200rpm 30,500 $298.00 $11.20 2000 August 1 Samsung 20,000 $175.00 $10.10 2000 August 19-20 Maxtor 7200rpm 9ms 40,900 $388.00 $10.90 2000 August 19-20 Maxtor 5400rpm 15,300 $144.00 $10.80 2000 August 19-20 Maxtor 7200rpm 9ms 30,700 $278.00 $10.40 2000 August 19-20 Maxtor 5400rpm 20,400 $164.00 $9.25 2000 August 19-20 Maxtor 5400rpm 30,700 $214.00 $8.02 2000 August 25 Maxtor 5400rpm 15,000 $149.99 $11.50 2000 August 25 Maxtor 7200rpm 40,000 $349.99 $10.10 2000 August 25 Maxtor 7200rpm UDMA/66 30,000 $249.99 $9.58 2000 October 27 Maxtor 7200rpm 30,700 $244.00 $9.17 2000 October 27 Maxtor 7200rpm 40,900 $318.00 $8.93 2000 October 27 Maxtor 5400rpm 61,400 $398.00 $7.46 2000 October 27 Maxtor 5400rpm 81,900 $518.00 $7.30 2000 October 27 Maxtor 5400rpm 30,700 $194.00 $7.25 2000 October 27 Maxtor 5400rpm 40,900 $254.00 $7.14 2000 November 1 Maxtor 7200rpm UDMA/66 30,000 $7.87 2000 December 13 Samsung 30,000 $189.00 $7.25 2000 December 20 Maxtor Ultra ATA 66 5400 rpm 80,000 $479.99 $6.90 2001 January 14 5400 rpm 61,000 $388.00 $7.30 2001 January 14 5400 rpm 82,000 $518.00 $7.25 2001 January 14 5400 rpm 40,000 $238.00 $6.85 2001 April 25 Quantum 7200 rpm 40,000 $260.00 $7.46 2001 April 25 Fujitsu 5400 rpm UDMA-100 30,000 $169.00 $6.49 2001 April 25 Fujitsu 5400 rpm UDMA-100 40,000 $199.00 $5.71 2001 May 1 5400 rpm 30,000 $178.00 $6.80 2001 May 1 5400 rpm 82,000 $468.00 $6.58 2001 May 1 5400 rpm 61,000 $344.00 $6.49 2001 May 1 5400 rpm 40,000 $204.00 $5.85 2001 June 28 Western Digital 7200 rpm EIDE 40,000 $219.99 $6.33 2001 July 6 Maxtor UATA 7200 rpm 60,000 $329.99 $6.33 2001 July 20 Western Digital 7200 rpm UATA 80,000 $5.75 2001 August 31 Western Digital 7200 rpm UATA 60,000 $4.41 2001 November 30 Western Digital 7200 rpm EIDE UATA-100 100,000 $2.99 2001 December 1 Maxtor 5400 rpm IDE 40,000 $158.88 $4.57 2002 March 8 Western Digital 5400 rpm EIDE Ultra ATA-100 40,000 $149.99 $4.31 2002 July 27 Maxtor 7200 rpm IDE 40,000 $128.88 $3.70 2002 August 9 Western Digital 7200 rpm EIDE Ultra ATA-100 100,000 $229.99 $2.65 2002 August 16 Western Digital 7200 rpm Ultra ATA-100 60,000 $149.99 $2.87 2002 August 16 Maxtor 7200 rpm EIDE Ultra ATA-133/100 80,000 $259.99 $3.73 2002 August 23 Western Digital 5400 rpm EIDE Ultra ATA-100 40,000 $89.99 $2.59 2002 August 30 Western Digital 7200 rpm EIDE Ultra ATA-100 100,000 $179.99 $2.07 2002 September 6 Western Digital 7200 rpm 120,000 $269.99 $2.59 2002 September 6 Western Digital 7200 rpm EIDE 40,000 $99.99 $2.87 2002 September 20 Western Digital 5400 rpm EIDE Ultra ATA-100 40,000 $89.99 $2.59 2002 September 20 Western Digital 7200 rpm Ultra ATA-100 60,000 $139.99 $2.68 2003 October 11 Maxtor 7200 rpm IDE 40,000 $89.88 $2.58 2003 October 11 Maxtor 7200 rpm IDE 120,000 $158.00 $1.52 2003 November 29 Maxtor Serial ATA 80,000 $134.00 $1.93 2003 November 29 Western Digital SMB cache 80,000 $124.00 $1.78 2003 November 29 Maxtor Serial ATA 120,000 $168.00 $1.61 2003 November 29 Western Digital SMB cache 120,000 $158.00 $1.52 2003 November 29 Maxtor 7200 rpm IDE 80,000 $98.88 $1.42 2003 November 29 Maxtor 7200 rpm IDE 120,000 $144.88 $1.39 2004 March 27 Western Digital Caviar 7200rpm 160,000 $269.99 $1.94 2004 March 27 Cicero 7200rpm 160,000 $269.95 $1.94 2004 March 27 Western Digital 7200rpm 250,000 $369.99 $1.70 2004 March 27 Western Digital 80,000 $109.00 $1.57 2004 March 27 Maxtor 7200rpm IDE 80,000 $98.00 $1.41 2004 March 27 Western Digital 120,000 $144.00 $1.38 2004 March 27 Maxtor 7200rpm IDE 120,000 $129.00 $1.24 2004 April 2 Western Digital Caviar 7200rpm 160,000 $169.99 $1.22 2004 April 16 Western Digital Caviar SE 7200rpm 250,000 $249.99 $1.15 2004 December 4 Barracuda 7200RPM, Internal ATA/100 400,000 $280.00 $0.70 2004 December 9 250GB, 7200RPM, Internal ATA/133 250,000 $180.00 $0.72 2005 August 29 400GB, 7200RPM, Internal ATA/100 400,000 $300.00 $0.75 2005 August 29 Ultra16 250GB, 7200RPM, Internal ATA/133 250,000 $160.00 $0.64 2005 December 12 Hitachi Deskstar 7K250 250GB 250,000 $130.00 $0.52 2005 December 12 Seagate Barracuda 200GB 200,000 $140.00 $0.70 2006 July 5 Maxtor Ultra16 300GB 300,000 $150.00 $0.50 2006 July 5 Seagate Barracuda 7200.9 500GB 500,000 $300.00 $0.60 2006 December 27 Western Digital Caviar SE16 250GB 250,000 $140.00 $0.56 2006 December 27 Samsung 80GB 80,000 $35.00 $0.44 2007 June 24 Seagate 250GB 250,000 $100.00 $0.40 2007 June 24 Seagate 160GB 160,000 $70.00 $0.44 2008 January 13 Seagate Barracuda 7200.10 750GB 750,000 $200.00 $0.27 2008 January 13 Beyond Micro Monster Mobile 1TB 1,000,000 $270.00 $0.27 2009 July 24 HITACHI 0A38016 7200 RPM SATA 3.0Gb/s 1,000,000 $74.99 $0.07

A large portion of this data was retrieved from Historical Notes about the Cost of Hard Drive Storage Space. Data from 2004-present was retrieved using the archive.org Wayback Machine.