For months, Chuck Schumer toiled on a seemingly fruitless task: Trying to persuade former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, who’d insisted for years that he was done with politics, to mount a comeback — and give Democrats a big boost in their bid to retake the Senate.

On Monday, the New York senator got his wish when Bayh jumped into the Indiana race against GOP Rep. Todd Young. The surprise entry by the former two-term senator and governor instantly upended the Senate landscape by putting in play a red state that had been all but written off by Democrats.


Bayh has baggage as a Washington insider and Obamacare supporter in a red state. But he also comes with nearly $10 million in the bank, statewide name recognition and strong ties to Democratic leaders. Now, Democrats are favored to win two states and are legitimately competitive in another half-dozen — improving the odds that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will bequeath the title of majority leader to Schumer, who will take over running the Democratic Caucus next year.

Though Democrats have long been bullish on their chances of taking back the Senate with Republicans defending 24 seats to Democrats’ 10, their momentum suffered a significant blow last month when GOP Florida Sen. Marco Rubio decided to seek reelection — turning that seat from a likely Democratic pickup to a tossup at best.

Now, though, Bayh’s decision to run for his old seat has shifted the map back toward Democrats, who need to capture four seats if they win the presidency to take back the chamber. They are favored in Wisconsin and Illinois, but the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada are all close.

Bayh’s reversal adds a sixth battleground to the mix — and Democrats believe Bayh is the favorite.

“He’s extremely popular, won his elections by a big margin, has support from Democrats and Republicans,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, a close Schumer confidante. “He’s in a very good position to (win) that seat. I think we have an excellent chance.”

Bayh is probably the only Democrat in Indiana who could beat Young. A former Marine elected to Congress in 2010, Young is a disciplined campaigner and was widely viewed 24 hours ago as the next senator from Indiana. Allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ran $760,000 in ads to oust the more conservative Rep. Marlin Stutzman in the primary, seemingly taking the seat off the board as former Rep. Baron Hill struggled to raise money and his own Democratic profile.

But for more than six months, Democrats have circulated internal polling that shows Bayh with a double-digit lead if he ran. And the party has notched some successes in the conservative state: President Barack Obama won Indiana in 2008 and Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) was elected in 2012 after former Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) lost his primary. With Donald Trump at the top of the ticket and talk of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence becoming his running mate, Bayh decided to take the plunge just four months before Election Day.

“This was done single-handedly by Chuck Schumer. I’d like to take a lot of credit for it, but Chuck’s worked on this,” Reid said in an interview on Monday afternoon. He called Schumer "the best recruiter. I’ve done OK but I’m in the minor leagues compared to what he does.”

Indiana and Washington Republicans conceded that Bayh’s entry complicates their plans to hold the majority but said Democrats are underestimating Young’s bio and head-down style.

“Bayh obviously makes the race much more competitive,” said Rep. Luke Messer (R-Ind.) said. But Young is running a good race and it’s “far from over.”

There are plenty of ways for Republicans to attack Bayh, but they may have to shift resources away from protecting vulnerable incumbents to do so. Republicans point out that Bayh voted for Obamacare and went to work for McGuireWoods, a Washington lobbying and law firm, though the former senator never registered as a federal lobbyist.

Bayh and his wife, Susan, have also come under criticism for her work on boards for corporations that lobby Congress on issues like health care reform, while Bayh was in the Senate. Last year, the Bayhs listed their Washington home for $2.6 million.

Bayh also has clashed with Democratic leaders since leaving, particularly when he began actively campaigning against Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. Bayh also wrote a scathing op-ed criticizing the Senate on his way out in 2010, a point-by-point take-down of the “institutional inertia,” which might come back to bite him.

“I didn’t think he liked the Senate … I’d be interested to know what changed his mind,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas). “Todd Young won overwhelmingly in a primary and I think he’s a formidable candidate as well. But I think it’s going to be a competitive race.”

Sen. Evan Bayh exits the Senate Chamber following his farewell speech on Capitol Hill in December 2010. | AP Photo

Young has laid relatively low in the two months since the May primary, as Democrats conceded the race had slipped away from them because of Young’s fundraising ability. However, Young reported that he has just more than $1 million on hand entering July on Monday, enough to handle Hill but a fraction of Bayh’s war chest.

Even so, Republicans insisted they'd been preparing for a surprise Bayh entry.

Bayh still has not officially announced his Senate run, and on Monday released a statement saying he had spoken with Hill and the two “believe that we must send leaders to Washington who will put Hoosiers' interests ahead of any one political party.”

Democrats familiar with the race said that Bayh has long been plotting his return, speaking to Schumer regularly but never committing to taking the plunge. That all changed on Monday, as Hill fled the race and anointed Bayh as a candidate who could win.

“The sense was that he would do it, but wait until the last possible moment,” said one Democrat involved in the battle to take back the Senate.