It is not too much of an exaggeration to claim that the imminent votes in Italy and Austria could determine the future of the European project. Such is the popular mood that no establishment leader, party or structure can be judged safe from assault by the extremists and populists. Europe will see many such tests over the next year, and the first is this weekend.

In Austria the authorities have decided to rerun a poll for the federal presidency. It is a purely ceremonial role, but there is a significant possibility that one Norbert Hofer, of the far-right Freedom Party, will succeed to that role, beating a socialist rival. If so, then it will be the first time the extreme right will have held an elected head of state in Europe since the end of the Second World War.

Austria was once known for the stable dominance of its conventional social-democratic tradition. Today, like so many other places in the West, it is polarised and divided, and increasingly forgetful of its past.

Of greater immediate consequence is the Italian constitutional referendum. The irony here is that the proposed changes are designed to bring Italy more effective government and economic reform. Instead, Matteo Renzi, the Prime Minister, has tied his and his government's fortunes to the result. The chances are that he will lose, and that the subsequent crisis of confidence will pile further pressure on Italy's banking system.

That could mean a Greek-style bailout and ever deeper concerns about the solvency of the Italian state itself. As the third largest economy in the eurozone, the problem this time could be not that Italy is too big to fail but that it is too big to save. The consequences for the future of the single currency and the EU itself are too grim to contemplate easily.

And so will Europe enter 2017, approaching the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, increasingly nervously.

Elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany will follow, each one another plebiscite on the established order. As David Cameron has warned in a rare intervention, a victory for Marine le Pen and the Front National in France would be a “body blow” for the EU. So it would be. The right, sometimes in unlikely parallel with the radical left, is on the rise, and the EU is under the most sustained political attack in its history.