Jeff Greer

@jeffgreer_cj

The 11th-ranked Louisville basketball team has been talking about the looming four-game stretch on its schedule for months.

It starts with seventh-ranked Kentucky on Wednesday, and No. 12 Virginia, No. 9 Indiana and No. 21 Notre Dame follow over the next two weeks.

Rick Pitino has repeatedly said he doesn't have a firm grasp on his Cards and how they'll handle the roughest part of their regular season, and his answer to a question on Saturday about the Kentucky rivalry game reflected that.

"It's going to be a really tough game, but the whole four games is going to be a tough stretch," Pitino said. "We could go 4-0 or 0-4. Who knows?"

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We consulted an oddsmaker from Bovada in Las Vegas to project point spreads for how Louisville (10-1) stacks up in its next four games and then ran those against the Ken Pomeroy projections for each game.

Interestingly enough, Vegas has two pick'ems and two games in which U of L is the underdog. KenPom likes U of L in all four games, albeit by a hair.

Kentucky at Louisville, Wednesday

Projected Bovada spread: Pick'em.

Ken Pomeroy projection: Louisville 79-77, with 55-percent confidence.

The lowdown: The home-court advantage is a factor, which is probably why the Cards are slightly favored on the popular metrics site. Both teams are exceptional at offensive rebounding, and they've both been solid in taking care of the ball. The most intriguing matchup within Wednesday's game will be on Kentucky's offensive end: The Wildcats (10-1) have the fifth-most-efficient offense in the country, and U of L has the nation's most-efficient defense.

Virginia at Louisville, Dec. 28

Projected Bovada spread: Pick'em.

Ken Pomeroy projection: Louisville 60-58, with 57-percent confidence.

The lowdown: A much different pairing than UK-U of L, this game is may be played on a molasses court. Through 10 games this season, Virginia (9-1) has played at the slowest tempo of any team in Division I hoops, while Louisville's games have averaged about 11 more possessions. UVA has a steady, productive offense, but this game will be all about the defense: The Cavaliers are second behind U of L in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings.

Louisville vs. Indiana, Dec. 31 (in Indianapolis)

Projected Bovada spread: IU favored by three points.

Ken Pomeroy projection: Louisville 73-70, with 61-percent confidence.

The lowdown: There's an interesting contrast here between Vegas and analytics. Without a full explanation from Bovada, we can only guess here that oddsmakers prefer IU (8-2) because the game is in Indy and the Hoosiers do two things - offensive rebound and shoot the ball well - that pose the biggest challenges to Louisville. Meanwhile, the Cards turn teams over and defend the 3, which makes for a potentially entertaining chess match on IU's offensive end.

Louisville at Notre Dame, Jan. 4

Projected Bovada spread: Notre Dame favored by one point.

Ken Pomeroy projection: Louisville 74-73, with 53-percent confidence.

The lowdown: This matchup wasn't originally included in the chatter about Louisville's run of tough games, mainly because the jury was uncertain about Notre Dame in the preseason. But the Irish are a potent offensive team with high shooting percentages and low turnover rates. The downside for them, and it's probably why Louisville is a slight KenPom favorite on the road, is they don't defend at a high level. Still, Notre Dame is a projected Vegas favorite presumably for a variety of reasons, starting with its home-court advantage: Mike Brey's teams are 5-0 at home vs. Pitino's Cards.