The coronavirus pandemic has made the recession in Europe’s largest economy an inevitable reality in the first half of this year, the German Council of Economic Experts, predicting production in the country could shrink by up to 5.4% this year.

Germany has been subject to a nationwide blockade after the number of coronavirus infected exceeds 57,000 infected and the death toll reaches 455.

Last week, parliament lifted the country’s constitutionally imposed debt brake by approving a massive stimulus package worth more than 750 billion EUR to help contain the economic downturn.

The Council of Economists, which assists the government, said its main scenario – in which the economic situation would normalize in the summer – was that the economy would shrink by 2.8% this year, before potentially growing by 3.7% next year.

Germany will not ease measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus before April 20, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief of staff told a German newspaper over the weekend.

Economic advisers have pointed out that a more pronounced V-shaped recession curve with large-scale production shutdowns or longer measures could shrink the economy by 5.4% this year before it grows by 4.9% in 2021

Economists typically define the recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Other experts are more pessimistic, and last week the German Economic Institute (IW) said in the worst-case scenario the German economy could shrink by 10% this year because of the coronavirus if the blocking continues until the end of June.

Nearly one in five German companies face insolvency risks, according to a DIHK chamber of commerce survey, outlining the difficult path ahead for Europe’s largest economy if the coronavirus persists.