Here's a summary of today's main developments :

Egypt

• Both candidates have claimed victory in the presidential run-off. Muslim Brotherhood supporters have been celebrating in Tahrir Square after the group said Mohammed Morsi had won 51.8% with more than 99% of the more than 13,000 poll centres counted. But Ahmed Shafiq's campaign said he was ahead "beyond all doubt". His media spokesman, Ahmed Sarhan, said Shafiq had between 51.5% and 52% of the vote. Sarhan accused the Brotherhood of trying to create a "fait accompli" and of risking confrontation on the streets "when official results declare Shafiq to be the winner". Egyptian news websites Ahram Online and al-Masry al-Youm both had Morsi winning. Official final results are not due until Thursday.

• The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) has denied that it is engaging in a power grab after it issued a new constitutional declaration tying the hands of the country's incoming president and cementing military authority over the post-Mubarak era. At a press conference it accused people of "blowing this out of proportion" and urged people to "stop all the criticisms that we are a state within a state". Despite awarding itself a range of powers including legislative responsibilities and full control of the armed forces, Scaf insisted that it was subservient to parliament. The military rulers also claimed they were unhappy that the supreme court dissolved parliament - "our biggest achievement" - and said they had no control over the court.

• The Muslim Brotherhood labelled the military declaration "null and void". Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei described it as a "grave setback for democracy". Human rights activist Hossam Bahgat, said: "Egypt has completely left the realm of the Arab Spring and entered the realm of military dictatorship."

Syria

• Barack Obama will press Vladimir Putin over Russia's role in the Syrian crisis when they meet at the G20 summit today, but there is little hope of Moscow agreeing to tougher UN action against the Assad regime. Suspension of the UN monitoring mission in Syria over the weekend has put added pressure on Obama and Putin to act decisively The seriousness of the rift between Washington and Moscow on Syria was underscored last week when secretary of state Hillary Clinton accused Russia of supplying Assad with attack helicopters. The accusation drew an angry retort from the Kremlin.

• The meeting comes as the Interfax news agency reported that two Russian navy ships are completing preparations to sail to Syria with a unit of marines on a mission to protect Russian citizens and the nation's base there. AP said the deployment appears to reflect Moscow's growing concern about Syrian President Bashar Assad's future. The Interfax news agency quoted an unidentified Russian navy official as saying that the two amphibious landing vessels, Nikolai Filchenkov and Caesar Kunikov, will be heading shortly to the Syrian port of Tartus, but didn't give a precise date. The official said the ships will carry an unspecified number of marines to protect Russians in Syria and evacuate some equipment from Tartus if necessary.

• Syrian forces have shelled rebel bastions in Homs and Damascus despite a warning by the United Nations that such bombardment amounted to crimes against humanity, AFP reports. "Shelling and shooting renewed in Homs city, with explosions heard in the Khaldiyeh neighbourhood," the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, reporting that at least 19 people were killed nationwide on Monday. UN rights chief Navi Pillay told the Human Rights Council in Geneva:

The government of Syria should immediately cease the use of heavy armaments and shelling of populated areas, as such actions amount to crimes against humanity and possible war crimes.

Kuwait

• Kuwait's emir has suspended parliament for one month, lawmakers said on Monday, ahead of the planned questioning of the interior minister by opposition members of the assembly, Gulf News reports.

At least two protests are planned in Cairo tomorrow. MPs (at least Islamist ones) are preparing to convene parliament "as usual" in defiance of a ruling by the supreme constitutional court last week that it be dissolved because a third of the MPs were, it said, illegally elected. But parliament is surrounded by army troops who have orders not to let anyone in.

Additionally, the 6 April Youth Movement has called a demonstration against Scaf's grab of political powers through a new constutional declaration.

The influential Egyptian blogger Mahmoud Salem (aka Sandmonkey), who has made no bones about his opposition to both Scaf and the Muslim Brotherhood, writes that "today concludes the end of the first chapter of the Egyptian revolution".

I never bought for a second the notion that [Ahmed]Shafiq is Scaf's candidate, mainly because everyone would think that he is, so his success or failures would be counted as their successes and failures. And it would be mostly failures, because there is something called the international economy and its tanking, so he would've never been able to deliver on his promises, and the Egyptian people are an impatient lot, so attacks on him, and subsequently Scaf would weaken their popularity amongst the population, with no one else left to blame anymore. So why would they do that? It's best [for Scaf] not to have a candidate, and to turn a blind eye to [Mohammed] Morsi's violations, have him win as the "revolutionary candidate"- because some morons have hyped him as such- and have us deal with the consequences. In reality, Scaf don't need to make a deal with anyone, because they have all the guns and institutions, so they know that whoever will get in will have to make a deal with them. In the end, there was no Scaf candidate, but rather the former NDP [National Democratic Party, (Hosni Mubarak's old party)] battling the MB, and the revolutionaries, instead of recognising that they are both enemies and choose to stay out of this fight, many of them joined Morsy, something which they will regret for years ... I have resolved, many months ago, that this revolution is continuing with or without me, and that the clash with the state and the MB is inevitable and coming, and that it won't stop anytime soon, mainly because the problems that sparked it are real, and no one has attempted to fix them, and they are getting worse by the minute.

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have been celebrating claims of a Muslim Brotherhood victory in Egypt's presidential election, AP reports:

As the Brotherhood claimed victory early Monday in Cairo, dozens of drivers in Gaza City honked their horns and decorated their cars with Palestinian and Egyptian flags, green Hamas banners and posters of Egypt's Brotherhood candidate, Mohammed Morsi. Hamas activists distributed sweets at the main intersections across Gaza, and loudspeakers at local mosques blared out messages of joy and victory. Shopkeepers in Gaza's main commercial center eagerly followed the claim from Egypt. "The news from Egypt is a great victory for all Muslims and for us in Gaza," said Sameh Ramdan, a 23-year-old student and Hamas supporter ... Joyous residents expressed hope for a new era in relations with Egypt.

"We voice our hope to have a real improvement in our lives, to end the blockade and to have free borders with Egypt and the world." Ramdan said. "The people of Egypt didn't vote for themselves only, but also for the good of all Arab and Muslims."

According to Ahram Online, Ahmed Shafiq's media spokesman, Ahmed Sarhan, said he is leading the Egyptian presidential race with 51.5% to 52% of the vote. Earlier Sarhan was quoted as saying Morsi had 52% of the vote and Shafiq 51.5%. [This post has been amended after a reader pointed out a mistake].

The Guardian's David Hearst writes on Comment is Free that Egyptian revolutionaries who are refusing to take sides between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military are misguided.

All the others are leaders without real parties behind them. If you are the only person in the playground, you call yourself the captain. None of the parties that Mubarak allowed to operate is currently in existence, so the liberal secularists, leftists, youth movement and the Christians in Egypt are at ground zero of their political life. And it shows. Divided, they are meat and drink to a military council that has just declared it will continue in perpetuity. If the 1,200 young people said to have been killed during the uprising against Mubarak (plus 8,000 wounded) did not make their sacrifice in vain, the overwhelmingly clear mission of all those groups that took part in the revolution is to unite around a common purpose – to disband the military council, clear away the old regime, send the army back to the barracks and establish democratic institutions. To continue to declare a plague on both their houses, meaning both the military and the Brotherhood, is not just self-indulgence. It is political folly, wherever you are on the secular or religious spectrum. The revolution has to finish first, and the important – less telegenic – part begins today.

Here's a summary of today's main developments so far:

Egypt

• Muslim Brotherhood supporters have been celebrating in Tahrir Square after the group claimed victory for its candidate in the presidential election. By the Brotherhood's count, Mohammed Morsi took 13.2 million votes, or 51.8% with more than 99% of the more than 13,000 poll centres counted. It gave Morsi's opponent - Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq - 48.1% out of 25.5 million votes.

• But a statement from Ahmed Shafiq's campaign claimed he was ahead "beyond all doubt". Shafiq's media spokesman Ahmed Sarhan accused the Brotherhood of trying to create a "fait accompli" and of risking confrontation on the streets "when official results declare Shafiq to be the winner". But at a press conference Sarhan appeared confused suggesting Morsi had 52% of votes so far and Shafiq 51.5%.

• The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) has denied that it is engaging in a power grab after it issued a new constitutional declaration tying the hands of the country's incoming president and cementing military authority over the post-Mubarak era. At a press conference it accused people of "blowing this out of proportion" and urged people to "stop all the criticisms that we are a state within a state". Despite awarding itself a range of powers including legislative responsibilities and full control of the armed forces, Scaf insisted that it was subservient to parliament. The military rulers also claimed they were unhappy that the supreme constitutional court dissolved parliament - "our biggest achievement" - and said they had no control over the court.

• The Muslim Brotherhood labelled the military declaration "null and void". Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei described it as a "grave setback for democracy". Human rights activist Hossam Bahgat, said: "Egypt has completely left the realm of the Arab Spring and entered the realm of military dictatorship."

Syria

• Barack Obama will press Vladimir Putin over Russia's role in the Syrian crisis when they meet at the G20 summit today, but there is little hope of Moscow agreeing to tougher UN action against the Assad regime. Suspension of the UN monitoring mission in Syria over the weekend has put added pressure on Obama and Putin to act decisively. The seriousness of the rift between Washington and Moscow on Syria was underscored last week when secretary of state Hillary Clinton accused Russia of supplying Assad with attack helicopters. The accusation drew an angry retort from the Kremlin.

• The meeting comes as the Interfax news agency reported that two Russian navy ships are completing preparations to sail to Syria with a unit of marines on a mission to protect Russian citizens and the nation's base there. AP said the deployment appears to reflect Moscow's growing concern about Syrian President Bashar Assad's future. The Interfax news agency quoted an unidentified Russian navy official as saying that the two amphibious landing vessels, Nikolai Filchenkov and Caesar Kunikov, will be heading shortly to the Syrian port of Tartus, but didn't give a precise date. The official said the ships will carry an unspecified number of marines to protect Russians in Syria and evacuate some equipment from Tartus if necessary.

• Syrian forces have shelled rebel bastions in Homs and Damascus despite a warning by the United Nations that such bombardment amounted to crimes against humanity, AFP reports. "Shelling and shooting renewed in Homs city, with explosions heard in the Khaldiyeh neighbourhood," the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, reporting that at least 19 people were killed nationwide on Monday. UN rights chief Navi Pillay told the Human Rights Council in Geneva:

The government of Syria should immediately cease the use of heavy armaments and shelling of populated areas, as such actions amount to crimes against humanity and possible war crimes.

Kuwait

• Kuwait's emir has suspended parliament for one month, lawmakers said on Monday, ahead of the planned questioning of the interior minister by opposition members of the assembly, Gulf News reports.

Reuters is now reporting that the campaign for Ahmed Shafiq says he is ahead "beyond all doubt" in the presidential election race.

FT correspondent Borzou Daraghi is at a press conference being given by Shafiq's media spoksman Ahmed Sarhan. Daraghi says Sarhan appears to be a little confused.

#egypt : sarhan says numbers are 52% morsi, 51.5% shafiq — Borzou Daragahi (@borzou) June 18, 2012

#egypt : wait that makes no sense 51.5 + 52 > 100??! — Borzou Daragahi (@borzou) June 18, 2012

Leaving aside the fact that the numbers don't add up, Sarhan contradicts the statement quoted by Reuters that Shafiq is winning "beyond all doubt".

Aswat Masriya quotes Sarhan as saying on Twitter:

The actions of Mursi and the brotherhood are irresponsible. Announcing that Mursi won and getting brotherhood supporters on the streets is an absurd, irresponsible action that aims at fueling clashes between Egyptians when official results declare Shafiq to be the winner.

More denials of defeat are coming out of Ahmed Shafiq's campaign. The media coordinator told Ahram Online:

Morsi's campaign are spreading fake news of victory in order to be able to claim vote-rigging when Shafiq wins.

Members of Shafiq's campaign said that many governorates have not finished collating results yet.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces said at a press conference that the constitutional amendment/addendum granting the military a number of political powers has been blown out of proportion and even claimed it is upset about the decision to dissolve parliament, the Wall Street Journal's Charles Levinson reports.

SCAF: "We weren't happy court dissolved parliament. Election of parliament was out biggest achievement." — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

SCAF: We have legislative powers until new parliament elected, but new president has right to veto laws we put forth. "There's a balance." — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

SCAF: Present constituent assembly remains unless court case rules to dissolve it. — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

SCAF: "We will send our laws to the president and he can choose to issue them or not. Everyone is blowing this out of proportion." — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

SCAF: "We want a little more trust in us. Stop all the criticisms that we are a state within a state. Please. Stop." — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

SCAF: New president will appoint all ministers including Minister of Defense. — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

SCAF: We waited until polls closed to issue constitutional declaration so no one could accuse us of trying to influence vote. — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

SCAF: We have no influence over Supreme Court. — Charles Levinson (@levinsonc) June 18, 2012

Ahmed Shafiq's campaign has accused the Muslim Brotherhood of "deceiving the people" by declaring victory, AP reports:

A campaign spokesman on the independent ONTV channel said counting was still going on with Shafiq slightly ahead so far.



But Ahmed Maher, co-founder of the April 6 revolutionary group congratulated Morsi on victory:



The next phase is more difficult. We must all unite against the oppressive rule of the military council.

Hamas, which grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood, has also congratulated Morsi, with a spokesman expressing the hope "that the result would lead to breaking the siege on Gaza and supporting Palestinian national issues topped by Jerusalem".

Nathan Brown, a Carnegie scholar, writes on the Arabist that Scaf's new constitutional declaration "completes the coup".

The supplementary constitutional declaration really does complete the coup in many obvious ways – basically returning martial law (in its more original sense rather than the "state of emergency" that just expired), making the military unaccountable, and grabbing back oversight of the political system for the military just weeks before the scheduled end of military rule ... The new article 53 refers to the Scaf in its current formation. What people had forgotten about the Scaf was that it was a body that existed before February 2011, established by statute that placed the president of the republic at its head. Without this declaration, President Shafiq or Morsi would have headed the Scaf upon taking office (unless there was some change in the legislation on the Scaf's formation I was unware of over the past year) In freezing the Scaf's current membership in place and giving it such sweeping powers, the provisions really do constitutionalise a military coup.

Ahram Online has an English translation of the addendum to the constitution announced by the Egyptian military last night that handed a whole host of powers to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf). Here's taste:

Article 53: The incumbent Scaf members are responsible for deciding on all issues related to the armed forces including appointing its leaders and extending the terms in office of the aforesaid leaders ... Article 60 B1: If the president, the head of Scaf, the prime minister, the supreme council of the judiciary or a fifth of the constituent assembly find that the new constitution contains an article or more which conflict with the revolution's goals and its main principles or which conflict with any principal agreed upon in all of Egypt's former constitutions, any of the aforementioned bodies may demand that the constituent assembly revises this specific article within 15 days.

The Arabist commissioned an English translation of last week's decision by Egypt's supreme constitutional court to dissolve the parliament because, it said, one third of the parliament had been elected illegally. The court said that the election law had allowed parties to compete for the one third of seats reserved for independent candidates.

Here's an extract from the document:

Political party members had the choice between two ways to run for the People's Assembly, the closed party-list system and the individual candidacy system. Independents were deprived of one of these ways, and their rights were limited to the portion allotted for the individual candidacy system, in which political party members also competed.

The grab of political powers by the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces might have overshadowed Egypt's presidential election but Shadi Hamid, from the Brookings Doha Centre, says the president will still have a significant role to play.

The president is not powerless - as some are saying. Still has considerable jurisdiction on domestic policy (education, health, etc). #Egypt — Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid) June 18, 2012

Yes, constitutional declarations matter but so too does democratic legitimacy. SCAF, as it turns out, doesn't have much of the latter. — Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid) June 18, 2012

President has bully pulpit, power of appointment and would be assisted by election of new parliament w- sizable MB plurality. #Egypt — Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid) June 18, 2012

Mohammed Morsi has promised to be a president for all of Egypt, Aswat Masriya reports:

"Thanks be to God who has guided Egypt's people to the path of freedom and democracy, uniting the Egyptians to a better future," Morsi said. He promised that as president he would not "seek revenge or settle scores." He pledges to serve both those who voted for him and those who did not and also vowed to seek justice for those killed in the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak last year ... "To all the martyrs and to their families ... I pledge to return their rights through law and in a law-abiding nation," Morsi said, speaking at the Cairo headquarters of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party.

Al-Masry al-Youm also has the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi winning. It gives him 51.3% and says he secured first place 18 governorates out of 27, although Ahmed Shafiq won in the capital.

Like Ahram Online (see 9.54am), al-Masry al-Youm puts turnout at almost 50%, contradicting reports yesterday that turnout was very low - some suggested as low as 15%.

Al-Masry al-Youm also has a nice gallery of spoiled ballot papers.

One reads sarcastically:

Both choices are so excellent, I couldn't choose from between them. Thank you, SCAF [Supreme Council of the Armed Forces].

Here's some reaction, from Twitter, to the election result in the context of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (Scaf) amending the constitution to award themselves sweeping political powers.

Can't believe #Shafik is out but know it doesn't matter either way. Our real president is #SCAF — Nora Shalaby ن. شلبي (@norashalaby) June 18, 2012

Please save ur breath panicking over Morsi- SCAF has written a constitution that makes SCAF INDEPENDENT of the president-panic over that — suzee (@suzeeinthecity) June 18, 2012

A woman in #cairo said to us "an islamist president, but the military still have the power. This is the nightmare scenario" #Egypt — Cara Swift (@cswift2) June 18, 2012

FYI: #Morsy didn't win. #SCAF won. There's an unlubricated 12-inch constitutional declaration to prove it :) — Noor نور (@NoorNoor1) June 18, 2012

So they allow morsy in, then throw down const amm saying another pres elex in 6 months, scaf has been and will b in charge. — M Radwan (@battutta) June 18, 2012

Enough with the exaggerations of what Morsi will do once in power. We have a military that just executed a legal coup - priorities, people! — Manar Mohsen (@ManarMohsen) June 18, 2012

Ahram Online reports that Morsi's own party - the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood - has Shafiq ahead in the capital but its man ahead overall:

Results from Cairo have yet to be announced by the governorate's presiding judge. However, FJP figures place Shafiq ahead with 56% compared to rival Morsi's 44%. The military man's win in the capital, however, still leaves him trailing the Islamist candidate by roughly 895,000 votes countrywide. If these results stand, Muslim Brotherhood contender Mursi will have won Egypt's first post-uprising elections with 51.7% of the vote, succeeding toppled strongman Hosni Mubarak.

Among Egyptian expatriates 222,009 (75%) voted for Morsi in the presidential election and 74,723 (25%) for Shafiq, according to unofficial results.



Egyptian blogger Zeinobia says that the official results of the expat vote are expected to be announced later on today at the ministry of foreign affairs.

Morsi's campaign has produced an electoral map showing results. The red governorates represent those where it says Morsi won a majority while the blue show where Shafiq prevailed.

Ahram Online has a table showing results in all Egyptian governorates with the exception of Cairo. Interestingly, given that people were saying turnout was very low - some said as low as 15% - Ahram says it stands at 49.5% compared to 46.4% in the first round.

This video shows Mohammed Morsi's supporters celebrating in Tahrir Square this morning.

One imagines that Tahrir Square could see some gatherings of a very different nature in weeks to come, given the Supreme Council of the Armed Force's constitutional amendments, announced last night.

The Egyptian writer, Ahdaf Soueif, says, on Comment is Free, that whoever is declared the next Egyptian president will not be the person most Egyptians want.

We are a nation of 85 million. Fifty million of us have a vote. How many will have voted for this president?

As I write, it's looking as if the turnout for this round will settle at about 15%. Compare this to the 80% turnout in March 2011, when Scaf (the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces), which had been running the country since Hosni Mubarak was deposed in 2011, put us through our first "democratic" exercise, a referendum: "Constitution first or parliamentary elections first?" The people queued, celebrated and debated – and Scaf twisted the result and cheated in its implementation to stay in power, then worked to spread chaos and division and to brutalise the nation. Unsurprisingly, when the time came for parliamentary elections, the electorate, feeling tricked and wrong-footed, reduced its participation to about 50%. And now, clearly, the disillusionment with the mechanics of democracy under Scaf continues. This will be Scaf's proudest achievement: that it has disabused the country of any notion that the machinery of the existing state will deliver the system the majority long for ... The revolution will continue because neither the old regime nor the Islamist trend in its current form are going to deliver "bread, freedom, social justice". Neither of them are going to validate the sacrifices made by the 1,200 young people murdered by the regime, the 8,000 maimed, the 16,000 court-martialled. As the weekend's spectacle unfolds, thousand of young men are in military jails, many of them on hunger strike. In the first round of presidential elections three weeks ago, fewer than five million voted for Shafiq – the old regime candidate – and also fewer than five million voted for Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate. Around 12 million voted for the progressive, secular trend in the revolution – but that didn't count because that vote was divided between five candidates. The progressives had done what they do best: failed to come together and make common cause against a known and clear enemy.

Welcome to Middle East Live. Here's a summary of the latest developments.

Egypt

• The Muslim Bortherhood has claimed victory for its candidate in the presidential election. By the group's count, Mohammed Morsi took 13.2 million votes, or 51.8% with more than 99% of the more than 13,000 poll centres counted. The Brotherhood gave Morsi's opponent - Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq - 48.1% out of 25.5 million votes. Shafiq's campaign challenged the result. Official final results are not due until Thursday.

• The election was overshadowed by the most blatant power grab to date by Egypt's ruling generals. A new constitutional declaration tied the hands of the country's incoming president and cemented military authority over the post-Mubarak era.The powers awarded tot he military include legislative responsibilities, the power to write the new constitution, powers of arrest, control over the armed forces and the right to veto wars.

• The Muslim Brotherhood labelled the military declaration "null and void". Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei described it as a "grave setback for democracy". Human rights activist Hossam Bahgat, said: "Egypt has completely left the realm of the Arab Spring and entered the realm of military dictatorship."

• Shafiq's campaign made more than 100 complaints about ballot rigging by the Muslim Brotherhood. A spokesman said: "The Muslim Brotherhood's systematic election violations prove how they do not believe in freedom of choice and democracy unless it brings them to power."

• The level of voting was reportedly hit by apathy and a boycott campaign, which if confirmed will lead to questions of legitimacy for Egypt's next president, whoever he is. Turnout was reported to be between 15% and 40%. Polling was extended by two hours in a bid to boost turnout. In the first round, 46% of eligible Egyptians voted.

Syria

• Barack Obama will press Vladimir Putin over Russia's role in the Syrian crisis when they meet at the G20 summit today, but there is little hope of Moscow agreeing to tougher UN action against the Assad regime. Suspension of the UN monitoring mission in Syria over the weekend has put added pressure on Obama and Putin to act decisively The seriousness of the rift between Washington and Moscow on Syria was underscored last week when secretary of state Hillary Clinton accused Russia of supplying Assad with attack helicopters. The accusation drew an angry retort from the Kremlin.