Haley will likely to be a top target for Democrats if she decides to run again. Dems eye hobbled Haley in 2014

South Carolina’s tandem of 2014 Senate races, thanks to Jim DeMint’s unforeseen resignation, may be drawing all the attention. But what has Democrats really licking their chops is the chance to take on Republican Gov. Nikki Haley in two years.

( PHOTOS: Jim DeMint's career)


Oft-mentioned as a potential national candidate, the 40-year-old GOP luminary has seen her popularity in the Palmetto State plummet midway through her first term.

Signs abound that her combative approach with the Republican-led state Legislature is wearing thin. Her conservative critics grouse she’s more interested in burnishing her maverick image than fostering relationships that produce legislation.

“She is headstrong and will not take advice from anyone who is not part of her inner circle,” said one lobbyist who has done work in Columbia.

( Also on POLITICO: All eyes on Haley)

Haley’s idea to grade lawmakers through a “report card” system was met with bipartisan mockery and disdain. Her veto of a bill designed to block a port expansion in Georgia spurred many to question her loyalty to her home state.

An ethics inquiry last spring into whether she improperly used her office as a state representative was ultimately dismissed — but not before a rash of biting headlines.

More recently, a hacking scandal at the Department of Revenue that exposed hundreds of thousands of residents’ Social Security and debit-card numbers has called into question her administration’s management and competency.

It all adds up to a floundering first-term governor in a solid red state who is likely to be a top target for Democrats if she decides to run again.

“The crown jewel is the governor’s race,” said Jaime Harrison, a vice chair of the state Democratic Party.

A warning flare of sorts was fired this week in the form of a poll by Public Policy Polling, the Democratic firm from neighboring North Carolina. Just 42 percent of voters approve of Haley’s performance, and the governor would narrowly lose a hypothetical rematch with her 2010 opponent, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen.

“This poll proves that the people of South Carolina want a governor they can trust, who is focused on the state and its issues — not a governor who cares about her personal success and national recognition,” said South Carolina Democratic Party Executive Director Amanda Loveday.

That frame of attack — that Haley is more interested in the national limelight than mundane home-state matters — is likely to be an overarching theme for Democrats.

Sheheen, who fell just under 60,000 votes short of upsetting Haley in the Republican tsunami of 2010, is already laying the groundwork for a repeat run.

“The poll numbers were encouraging in that South Carolina wants to go in a different direction whether or not I run,” Sheheen said in an interview Wednesday, adding that any decision on a campaign is still months away. “The greatest disappointment has been her inattention to the state, her lack of transparency and the dysfunction of state agencies.”

Haley political aide Tim Pearson signaled he expected Sheheen to run again and welcomed his candidacy.

“Vince Sheheen has been doing nothing but running for governor for the last four years — while Nikki Haley was actually governing,” he said. “When it comes time for us to re-enter the political ring with him, the results will be just as bad for Vince as they were last time.”

As for her litany of problems lately, Pearson acknowledged, “Gov. Haley has had the toughest two-month stretch of her governorship as a result of this major international criminal hacking.”

But he stressed that if Sheheen can only pull roughly even with the governor during this difficult period, “his chances are hopeless once she gets the message out about her record-breaking economic development achievements.”

Haley will need a second act to repair her standing with independents, who have broken away from the incumbent by a 16-point margin, according to PPP.

Some local Democrats still believe they could have stopped Haley from getting elected in the first place if only the national party had done more.

Former state Democratic Chairman Dick Harpootlian lamented in October 2010 that it was “maddening” that D.C. committees ponied up only about $100,000 for Sheheen’s effort.

“They’re walking away from us and it just pisses me off,” Harpootlian told POLITICO at the time.

Harpootlian said Wednesday he believes attitudes have changed.

“We’re on the radar, they’re looking at us,” he said.

DGA Executive Director Colm O’Comartun, who has already met with Sheheen, indicated his committee is prioritizing the race this time.

“I think Vincent Sheheen is a great candidate and that Nikki Haley is very vulnerable as a result of debilitating scandals and seemingly a deep rift with her party in the Legislature. Vincent ran a great race last time and we are committed to be involved in this race from the get-go,” he told POLITICO.

Haley drew national media attention this year after rallying at the same event with high-profile candidates like Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and campaigning for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. In August, she was awarded a prime speaking slot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla.

But her political potency took a hit in January when Mitt Romney failed to win South Carolina’s Republican primary after Haley endorsed and campaigned for him.

“I think people were looking at her at a superficial level — the first woman, the first [female] Indian-American governor — but the state in general, has been run poorly,” Harrison said.

That’s why her selection to fill DeMint’s seat — which could come any day — is seen as a pivotal moment for Haley.

Tapping Rep. Tim Scott — a tea-party favorite who could become the first African-American senator from the South since Reconstruction — could solidify the right and help Haley head off a primary challenge. Yet the early polling suggests her bigger obstacle is the general election.

Still, though Republicans acknowledge Haley’s controversies have hurt her poll numbers, most believe she won’t draw a formidable primary challenger.

In that vein, longtime South Carolina GOP consultant Richard Quinn said he sees signs Haley is taking steps to improve her relationships with the general assembly.

“Initially, the idea was that it’s OK to go to war with the Legislature, even when the Legislature is controlled by your own party because that gives you an image of a maverick and reformer. That’s helpful — but after a while, when all of your vetoes get overridden and none of your bills get passed, people begin to think, ‘How effective is this?’” he said. “I’ve seen her mature over the years and I think she’ll be fine.”

There’s also the theory that a jam-packed ballot in the off year — when turnout generally is older, whiter and more Republican-friendly — will produce a tide that will lift all GOP boats.

“With the two Senate races, all constitutional officers up and House races — that’s a huge turnout and, in that case, the Republicans will win. That’s going to help Gov. Haley,” said South Carolina Republican National Committeeman Glen McCall.