Scientists have predicted how changes to temperature and the distribution of sunlight will effect solar technologies

Amid all the discussion about how energy sources may impact on climate change, we often overlook the fact that climate change will in turn impact on energy sources. As the world warms, this will become an increasingly important issue, affecting everything from nuclear power stations needing cold water for cooling through to melting ice opening up new fossil fuel reserves in the Arctic.

Given the current row about how much the UK should subsidise solar power, it was interesting to come across a scientific paper looking at how solar technologies will be affected by global warming in the coming century. The paper – published earlier this year but as far as I can see not covered anywhere in the mainstream media – predicts that Europe's potential for solar will increase. Perhaps more surprisingly, many other regions will see losses.

The research, carried out by academics at the University of Leeds, examined the implications of a medium global warming scenario for temperatures and sunlight in different regions. Sunlight will be affected by changing cloud cover.

The researchers then calculated what those changes would mean for the two main solar energy technologies: photovoltaic (PV) panels, which use semiconductors to convert sunlight directly into electricity; and concentrated solar power (CSP) plants, which use mirrors to focus sunlight onto a small area, generating heat that can then be converted into power.

Of the specific areas assessed, Germany comes out best. According to the paper, the country – Europe's solar leader – can expect to see PV systems in 2080 producing around 3% more power than the same systems would today. Germany's potential for CSP will increase even more – by 10% – though from a very low baseline.

The UK will see a small increase in the potential for both technologies. By contrast, Saudi Arabia and the south-west US face losses of 4–6% for both PV and CSP.

The map below provides a fuller picture. It shows PV outputs in 2080, relative to the late 20th-century. Blue is a decrease; red is an increase. For PV, it seems, the losers outweigh the winners.

A map showing the expected change in outputs to solar photovoltaic (pv) panels in 2080 due to the effects of climate change Photograph: Julia A. Crook, Laura A. Jones, Piers M. Forster and Rolf Crook

Here's the same map for CSP. In this scenario, the increases and decreases are more evenly shared out, with large areas of Eurasia and the Americas looking likely to see increases.

A map showing the expected change in outputs to solar photovoltaic (pv) panels in 2080 due to the effects of climate change Photograph: Julia A. Crook, Laura A. Jones, Piers M. Forster and Rolf Crook

The reason for the different impact on the two technologies, the paper explains, is that while both of them respond well to rising solar insolation, only CSP also responds well to rising temperatures. Indeed, PV actually works better in cooler conditions.

It's important to note that the changes listed above are relative. In absolute terms, it will still be far more efficient to put up a solar panel and plant in Marrakech than in Manchester. As the paper makes clear: "Solar power plants are and will continue to be located close to centres of population within the Earth's sun belt of 40N to 40S."

Nonetheless, the findings will impact on the economics of solar going forward and may affect the optimal technology mix in different areas. For example, according to the study, North Africa – the proposed home of the giant Desertec solar project – looks set to become better for CSP and less good for PV.

Rolf Crook, one of the researchers behind the paper, believes the findings lend weight to the case for solar subsidies in Europe. He said: "We have shown, perhaps surprisingly, that climate change will have a positive impact on the output of solar power plants in many parts of the world. This further strengthens the case for research and investment in solar power today. Subsidies play a vital role in driving down the cost of solar technology. Cutting subsidies would only have a negative effect."

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