Share Widespread frustration at Brexit has not translated into a widespread desire to stop Brexit

Widespread frustration at Brexit has not translated into a widespread desire to stop Brexit A second referendum is not a certain or clear resolution to the Brexit crisis

A second referendum is not a certain or clear resolution to the Brexit crisis MPs might be tempted to punt Brexit back to the people. But what would that solve?

‘I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House,’ said the Prime Minister after the Withdrawal Agreement was rejected by 344 votes to 286 in the House of Commons on Friday.

Eventually, something has got to give. Exactly what – and when – nobody in Westminster seems to know at the moment. But with Britain’s exhausted and exasperated politicians well and truly lost in the Brexit maze, the likelihood that the whole mess is punted back to voters, either in a second referendum or a general election, is surely growing.

The practical problems with an election should not be underestimated: who would be leading the Conservatives into that vote after Theresa May’s half-pledge to step down? What on earth would the Brexit sections of the main parties’ manifestos say?

A so-called People’s Vote faces many similar issues – what options would voters choose from, for example? – as well as far more serious ones, like the devastating hit it would deliver to faith in democracy and trust in politics in Britain.

But let’s ignore these good reasons to think both a People’s Vote and a second referendum aren’t necessarily good ideas, and consider whether or not going back to the people would even change anything.

Given the tight nature of the polls there is a very real possibility that, if asked to change the Parliamentary arithmetic in a general election, voters return a House of Commons in which no party, and no Brexit plan, has a majority.

What about a second referendum? As I pointed out on CapX earlier this week, the advocates of a People’s Vote have now dropped the pretence of being anything other than a campaign to stop Brexit, by any means possible. But if a second referendum is nothing more than a means to an end, how likely would it be to deliver their desired objective?

Research by NatCen Social Research, outlined this week by leading psephologist Sir John Curtice (who we interviewed on the Free Exchange podcast ahead of the 2017 election), serves as a timely reminder that public frustration with the handling of Brexit and public rejection of Brexit are very different things.

On the first point there is an apparent consensus. Eighty per cent of Leave voters now say that Britain has handled Brexit negotiations badly, a figure that has shot up from around 50 per cent since last summer; 85 per cent of Remain voters agree.

A growing number of voters – and, again, a similar number of Leavers and Remainers – think that Britain will get a bad deal at the end of the Brexit talks. Two years ago, that figure was 33 per cent. Today it is 57 per cent.

But does frustration at the handling of Brexit translate into a surge in support for Remain?

Curtice’s average of opinion polls puts the present level of support for Remain at 54 per cent and Leave at 46 per cent. That is an undeniable shift in opinion from 2016. But as Curtice himself puts it, ‘in truth, the polls are too close for opponents of Brexit to assume that a second ballot would produce a different result’. Indeed, the polls ahead of referendum day nearly three years ago hardly forecast the final result accurately.

Moreover, the undeniable shift is not down to widespread ‘Bregret’, despite claims otherwise by many on the Remain side of the debate is a widespread phenomenon. Some 86 per cent of Remainers would vote the same way now – but so would 82 per cent of Leavers. Most of the shift in the polls is down to those who did not vote in 2016, who break heavily for Remain.

These voters matter too, of course – but the case for reversing the result of the last referendum rests on the existence of a widespread sense among Leavers that they made a mistake. If Sir John is right – and he usually is – the evidence isn’t nearly as compelling as the many MPs who want to put Brexit back to the people claim.

One of the many lessons of the last general election was that campaigns matter. Until 2017, conventional wisdom dictated that the weeks ahead of a vote weren’t as important as they used to be. Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May proved that theory to be wrong. Their performances on the campaign trail changed minds, and ultimately changed history.

And so, whatever the strengths and weaknesses of the cases for another referendum – and I think the weaknesses comfortably outweigh the strengths – don’t let the People’s Vote’s claim that their solution would be a predictable or clear resolution to the Brexit crisis. The truth is, such a thing seems even further away than ever.

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Oliver Wiseman is Editor of CapX.

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