Jason Garrett's decision to punt in OT last night, rather than go for a 4th and 1 on the HOU 42, is a hot topic. The numbers suggest it was close to the point of indifference, but favored going for it. DAL Win Probability if they go: 55.5% DAL Win Probability if punt: 53.9% The break-even chance of success needed to make the risk of going for worth it was 60.7%, while league average conversion rates with 1 yd to go in that region of field is 65.3%. With the strength of their line and running back, the Cowboys would have been slightly better off going for it on net. The reason this isn't as "juicy" of a 4th down situation as many people might expect is due to the state of the OT at that moment. If Dallas' conversion were successful, it would remain the "first possession" of OT, meaning a FG could be matched or trumped with a Texans TD. A failure to convert would give Houston the ball in sudden death. Had this situation already been in sudden death, it would have been a slam dunk case to go for it.