If you want an optimistic take on the U.S. and world economies, don't look to Sam Zell.

Speaking at an investment conference today, the billionaire Chicago investor suggested a recession may be on the horizon, decried the demographics of aging Europe and made it clear he thinks there's not much upside left in commercial real estate. Yet Zell is high on Latin America, where he's had more hits than misses investing in real estate.

Zell, the 75-year-old chairman of Equity Group Investments, covered those topics and many more in a conversation with Debra Cafaro, chairman and CEO of Ventas, that kicked off the annual Invest for Kids event. The conference, which raises money for kid's charities, drew about 1,100 people to the Harris Theater in downtown Chicago to hear investment ideas from top money managers.

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Cafaro pointed out that two of Zell's real estate companies, Equity Residential and Equity Commonwealth, have been selling properties while funds led by two other high-profile investors, Jonathan Gray, Blackstone Group's head of real estate, and Barry Sterlicht, of Starwood Capital Group, have been buying. “I don't think I am as optimistic as Jon and Barry are, but then again I use my own money,” Zell quipped, forgetting for a moment that Equity Residential and Equity Commonwealth are public companies with many shareholders.

Amid soaring apartment prices, Chicago-based Equity Residential pulled off its biggest divestiture in January, selling more than 23,000 apartments for $5.4 billion to Starwood. Many people took the sale as a signal that the apartment market is peaking. “I am happy to sell to both of them,” Zell said of Sternlicht and Gray, who spoke later at the the event.

Cafaro started by asking Zell about his non-real estate holdings, which account for about 70 percent of his portfolio, pressing him to explain whether they share a “unifying theme.” His answer: He seeks markets with limited competition or high barriers to entry. “If we can't get a monopoly, we'll settle for an oligopoly,” Zell said.

Outside the U.S., Zell has tried to find markets that are still pioneering but on the cusp of legitimacy, with growing populations and functioning capital markets. He likes India, Mexico and Colombia, a country his overseas real estate investment firm, Equity International, entered in 2011. “I'm very optimistic about Latin America and we've been fortunate to move in and out as effectively as we have done,” he said.

Still, investing overseas comes with a big trade-off. "Generally speaking, anytime you leave the United States, you leave the rule of law and you have to get compensated,” he said. “I'm basically making a trade, and the trade is I get growth and I lose the rule of law. It's a tricky trade.”

Though he's known for his liberal use of profanities, Zell managed to get through the discussion without using a single swear word. He also offered his opinion on several other subjects:

• The U.S. economy: “I think it's much more likely that we're going to have some kind of recession, cleansing, market clearing, before this economy can grow.”

• The European economy: “The demography of Europe is horrific. Maybe Japan is the only country with the demography is worse.”

• The U.S. presidential election: “The Hobson's choice that we have is pretty awful on all fronts. Hopefully, America will be able to survive it.”