New research, October 2-8, 2017

Posted on 13 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. Comment on “Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO 2 residence time in the atmosphere” by H. Harde

"As we will show, this alternative scheme is too simple, is based on invalid assumptions, and does not address many of the key processes involved in the global carbon cycle that are important on the timescale of interest. Harde (2017) therefore reaches an incorrect conclusion about the role of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions."

2. A state-dependent quantification of climate sensitivity based on paleo data of the last 2.1 million years



"Finally, from data covering the last 2.1 Myr we show that — due to state dependency — the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO 2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo ... is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor two."

3. Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming



"We find that the frequency of annual heavy precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative."

4. Midlatitude summer drying : An underestimated threat in CMIP5 models?



"Here, several aridity indices and a two-tier attribution strategy are used to demonstrate that a summer mid-latitude drying has recently emerged over the northern continents, which is mainly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This emerging signal is shown to be the harbinger of a long-term drying in the CMIP5 projections. Linear trends in the observed aridity indices can therefore be used as observational constraints and suggest that the projected mid-latitude summer drying was underestimated by most CMIP5 models."

5. Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge



"We estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects."

6. Spatial-temporal variations in the thermal growing degree-days and season under climate warming in China during 1960–2011



7. Carbon dioxide emissions from lakes and reservoirs of China: A regional estimate based on the calculated pCO 2

8. Nearshore wave power increase on reef shaped coasts due to sea-level rise



9. Release of Black Carbon from Thawing Permafrost Estimated by Sequestration Fluxes in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf Recipient



10. Decadal climate variability and the spatial organization of deep hydrological drought



11. Projected response of low-level convergence and associated precipitation to greenhouse warming



12. Australia's unprecedented future temperature extremes under Paris limits to warming



13. The role of circulation and land surface conditions in current and future Australian heat waves



14. Elucidating the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols In the Arctic Sea Ice Variations



15. Low-Frequency Climate Modes and Antarctic Sea Ice Variations, 1982-2013



16. Antarctica-Regional Climate and Surface Mass Budget



17. The impact of föhn winds on surface energy balance during the 2010-11 melt season over Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica



18. Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years’ time series of rainfall dataset across India



19. Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania



20. The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling



21. Meteorological conditions associated with the onset of flash drought in the Eastern United States



22. The Response of Local Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure to Hadley Cell Expansion



23. Temperature Control of the Variability of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus Clouds



24. A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?



25. Global Tidal Impacts of Large-Scale Ice-Sheet Collapses



26. A Meteoric Water Budget for the Arctic Ocean



27. Decadal Change of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon Break around 2002/03



28. Spatiotemporal patterns of High Mountain Asia's snowmelt season identified with an automated snowmelt detection algorithm, 1987–2016

29. Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead



30. Temporal evolution of the spatial covariability of rainfall in South America



31. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming



32. Long-term variations of the mole fraction and carbon isotope ratio of atmospheric methane observed at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard from 1996 to 2013



33. Assessing climatic trends of extreme rainfall indices over northeast Bangladesh



34. Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles



35. Can atmospheric reanalysis datasets be used to reproduce flooding over large scales?



36. Global Response of Clear-Air Turbulence to Climate Change



Climate change impacts

37. Putting trapped populations into place: climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia



"Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate-related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints."

38. Status of natural springs in the Melamchi region of the Nepal Himalayas in the context of climate change



"Our work has shown that the water volume in about 30% of the springs has decreased over the last decade. The springs located in mid-elevation with discharge less than 5 liters per minute are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The 2015 Nepal earthquake had a huge and immediate impact on the water volume of the springs in our study with an immediate drying effect in about 18% of the springs."

39. Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey



"Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not have serious economic effects over the period up to late 2030s, but the negative effects dominate the economy in the second half of this century. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to increase resilience and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact of climate change varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected. Especially irrigated production will decline as water stress increases."

40. Adaptive capacity: identifying the challenges faced by municipalities addressing climate change in Mexico



41. Analysis of flash flood disaster characteristics in China from 2011 to 2015



42. Representation of Indigenous peoples in climate change reporting



43. Disentangling competitive versus climatic drivers of tropical forest mortality



44. Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere



45. Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios



46. The ozone-climate penalty in the Midwestern U.S.



47. Quantifying antecedent climatic drivers of tree growth in the Southwestern US



48. A Case Study on Power Outage Impacts from Future Hurricane Sandy Scenarios



49. A comparative analysis of the spatio-temporal variation in the phenologies of two herbaceous species and associated climatic driving factors on the Tibetan Plateau



50. Forest bees are replaced in agricultural and urban landscapes by native species with different phenologies and life history traits



51. High mountain communities and climate change: adaptation, traditional ecological knowledge, and institutions



52. Can intra-regional food trade increase food availability in the context of global climatic change in West Africa?



53. Assessing the roles of fire frequency and precipitation in determining woody plant expansion in central U.S. grasslands



54. Responses of phenology and seed production of annual Koenigia islandica to warming in a desertified alpine meadow

55. Heat wave hinders green wave: The impact of climate extreme on the phenology of a mountain grassland



56. Projecting tree-growth responses into future climate: A study case from a Danish-wide common garden



57. Spatio-temporal flowering patterns in Mediterranean Poaceae. A community study in SW Spain



58. Adapting to climate change: the role of organisational personalities in natural resource management



59. Decoupling the direct and indirect effects of climate on plant litter decomposition and terrestrial nutrient cycling



Climate change mitigation

60. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?



"Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110–285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80–300 million people in 2050."

61. Estimating willingness to pay for greenhouse gas emission reductions provided by hydropower using the contingent valuation method



"Results indicate that US households are willing to pay an additional $3.66 per year in increased taxes to prevent increases in GHG emissions due to proposed re-purposing."

62. How China’s nitrogen footprint of food has changed from 1961 to 2010



63. Greenhouse gas emissions in conversion from extensive pasture to other agricultural systems in the Andean region of Colombia



64. The role of coal technology in redefining India's climate change agents and other pollutants



65. Decomposing the anthropogenic causes of climate change



66. The effect of group size on energy consumption by communal electricity users



Other papers

67. Combined effects of atmospheric and seafloor iron fluxes to the glacial ocean

