Editorial (September 5, 2018) — The first FIFA date since the conclusion of the 2018 World Cup sees the USMNT involved in two challenging fixtures. First is a tilt against storied South American giants Brazil this coming Friday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. Four days later, the scene shifts to Nashville, TN for a rekindling of North American soccer’s best international rivalry, USA-Mexico.

Dave Sarachan remains the interim manager for the Stars and Stripes. And while he’s done an admirable job steadying the ship after the US’ shock failure to qualify for the World Cup (the team’s 1-1 draw against eventual champions France the most clear-cut example), most don’t expect recently-minted general manager Earnie Stewart to go with him on a permanent basis.

Stewart certainly has a dilemma given the global nature of soccer. There will invariably be a host of immensely qualified candidates, both foreign and domestic. Plenty of suggested names (some more far-fetched than others) have sprung up and a good portion of those will certainly end up on Stewart’s short list. One of them from the American side of things is current Columbus Crew SC head man Gregg Berhalter.

Why Gregg Berhalter’s Prospects to Become Next USMNT Manager Continue to Look Bright

Comparing Berhalter to Other Candidates

His is one of a few prominent names Stewart might consider if he decides to go American with the hire. Two others likely come to mind rather quickly for USMNT fans and pundits. Peter Vermes has an MLS Cup and three U.S. Open Cup trophies under his belt as Sporting Kansas City manager. And Jesse Marsch, now an assistant in the Bundesliga at RB Leipzig, is the winningest coach in New York Red Bulls history and led them to a Supporters’ Shield during his first season in charge.

What may give Berhalter the edge over those two is that they both recently made long-term commitments to their respective clubs. Vermes signed an extension in May that ties him to SKC through the 2023 season. Meanwhile, Marsch is a mere two months into his stint with one of the Bundesliga’s up-and-coming clubs. It seems a rather unexpected proposition for them to back out of their current jobs for a change of scenery with the USMNT.

Berhalter’s biggest adversary from among current MLS managers might be FC Dallas’ Oscar Pareja. The 50-year-old Colombian is similar in a variety of ways to Berhalter. The two coaches assumed their current position in 2014. And perhaps, most importantly, they both have consistently proven that they optimize the resources available to them better than any manager in the league.

Doing More With Less

One of the best ways to measure this is looking at a team’s payroll relative to how they finish in the standings. And over the course of their four years in MLS, both Berhalter’s and Pareja’s teams have been as good as it gets in that regard. To get an accurate gauge of this fact, we can take where teams rank in Spotrac’s measure of guaranteed salary among MLS teams and subtract their ranking from where they finished in the league that particular year.

For example, if a team ranked 10th in guaranteed salary and finished fourth in the league, they outperformed their team salary mark by six points. For teams that made the playoffs that year, we’ll use goal difference in each round to calculate their finish. So if they lost in the conference final and had a better goal difference than the other losing team, they finished third. The tiebreaker if the teams have a similar goal difference is points earned during the regular season.

Adding those salary and ranking totals over the course of the past four years and subtracting the former from the latter begets the following chart.

Whether it was their near-championship in 2015 or their near-return to MLS Cup last year, Berhalter’s teams have consistently surprised to the upside relative to their payroll. Look no further than the comparison to their rival, the Chicago Fire. In the same span, the Fire made the playoffs only once. And even that year, they were the league’s fourth-highest spenders only to crash out of the knockout round with a 4-0 loss to the Red Bulls.

Berhalter and the Croatia World Cup Model

The ability to get the most out of the talent on your roster isn’t just important at club level. That fact played itself out rather starkly at this year’s World Cup with Croatia’s run to the final. Yes, Zlatko Dalic’s side included two of the world’s top midfielders in Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic along with an immensely talented striker in Mario Mandzukic. But, by and large, quite a few other squads at the tournament looked better on paper.

It’s the same with Berhalter’s Crew squads. With the exception of that 2016 campaign, the only year they missed the playoffs during his tenure, he’s been able to unlock the potential of the players at his disposal in a manner that constantly exceeded expectations. It’s coaches with that kind of track record who Stewart should be targeting. Coaches who have attention to detail, who can motivate and who boast the proclivity from a tactical standpoint to succeed, even against the odds. That’s Berhalter in a nutshell.

High Praise From Accomplished Coaches

His success in Columbus has earned the praise from some of MLS’ more prominent foreign coaches. Last year, Atlanta United manager Tata Martino, whose previous stints included the Argentinian national team and FC Barcelona, said that he admired the Crew’s playing style under Berhalter. After the club’s 2-1 win over NYCFC last week, Domenec Torrent became the latest to praise how he’s molded his team. That’s pretty big considering Torrent was looked at as Pep Guardiola’s right-hand man while at Manchester City. Ebullient soccer media personality Ray Hudson also gave his stamp of approval on a possible Berhalter to USMNT move during a show he contributes to on Sirius XM radio.

The situation in Columbus regarding the future of the Crew is obviously unfortunate. One can only hope it ends with the team staying put instead of abandoning its fans and bolting for Austin, TX. Whatever happens, the next evolution in Berhalter’s coaching career may be leading the US in its quest to return to soccer’s biggest stage.

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