Which shows and actors deserve to win at Sunday's TV Baftas ceremony? Could all the big awards go West? Tell us your hopes and fears

Read the full list of 2012 nominations

On Sunday evening the great and good of UK telly will gather at the Royal Festival Hall for the British Academy Television Awards – a celebration of the best programmes and performances of the past year that also tends to provoke controversy. (Last year's big, although entirely foreseeable upset: TOWIE beating Sherlock to the Bafta YouTube audience award. This year's potential upset: Celebrity Juice doing the same). So who should be sweeping off with what? We discussed the nominations – and in some cases lack of them – in a blog when they were released. But now it's time to pick our winners.

The acting categories seem particularly close this year, with Benedict Cumberbatch, Dominic West, John Simm and Joseph Gilgun all nominated for the leading actor award. It feels like West has the momentum behind him for his extraordinary portrayal of Fred West in in Appropriate Adult – he took the same category at the 2012 Royal Television Society awards. And yet … Cumberbatch, who lost out in this category last year, surely deserves recognition for his remarkable playing of Sherlock. A tough call.

West's co-star, Emily Watson finds herself in a similar situation in the leading actress category: up against This is England '88s Vicky McClure, who took the award last year for This is England '86. I think Watson edges it here, with a subtle, nuanced and complex performance as Janet Leach. There is however, potential for upset. Nadine Marshall was excellent in Channel 4's Random, while Romola Garai is in the running for The Crimson Petal and the White.

It's heartening to see so many really first-rate performances recognised in these lists: supporting actress has Anna Chancellor (The Hour), Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey), Miranda Hart (Call the Midwife) and Monica Dolan (Appropriate Adult). I'm not sure Hart's performance was really that much of a stretch – others will disagree – but Chancellor was absolutely the best thing about The Hour. Dolan, however stands out here: she was astonishing as Rose West, and certainly I could imagine Appropriate Adult sweeping the board in all three acting categories.

Supporting actor, meanwhile, looks like a particularly juicy fight: Martin Freeman and Andrew Scott, both from Sherlock, pitted against each other, with Stephen Rea (The Shadowline) and Joseph Mawle (Birdsong) also nominated. For me this is all about Scott versus Rea – such deliciously dark TV characters battling for the prize. I'd like to see Rea win: not least because The Shadowline, a flawed but still compelling, brave piece of television, doesn't receive a single other nomination.

Instead, best drama series is a battle between The Fades, Misfits, Scott & Bailey and Spooks. Which is frankly not the most exciting lineup I've ever seen. Spooks is clearly in there because it has finally come to an end, but that doesn't mean it deserves to win. Equally, this wasn't Misfits's finest season. And increasingly, much as I love Scott & Bailey, I do wonder whether The Fades – incredibly not commissioned for a second series by the BBC – should take this category. If for no other reason that it might force them to reconsider.

The single drama and mini-series categories look stronger: I'd like to see Debbie Tucker Green's Random take the former against Page Eight, Stolen, and Holy Flying Circus. The mini-series group is trickier. Channel 4's Top Boy would be my choice, but the competition is fierce: This is England '88, Crimson Petal and Appropriate Adult are also nominated here in a very open category.

Likewise, I can't really call the international Bafta – otherwise known as the BBC4 award, surely – with Borgen, The Killing and The Slap nominated alongside Sky's Modern Family. My vote lies with the Danish political series. If only because it's currently far too hot to be thinking of Sarah Lund's enormous jumpers.

Away from drama, awards for female and male comedy performance feel surprisingly low-key. Olivia Colman would be my pick of the women (also nominated: Jennifer Saunders, Ruth Jones and Tamsin Greig), although I'd argue it should be for her performance in the sublime Rev rather than Twenty Twelve. If there's any justice, her co-star Tom Hollander should take the male comedy award – if he's beaten by Brendan O'Carroll in Mrs Brown's Boys, I might not be responsible for my actions. Just to up the ante, that same tussle is repeated in the sitcom category, where Rev and Mrs Brown's Boys are joined by Fresh Meat and Friday Night Dinner.

So your thoughts on Sunday's awards please. Length stops me discussing the many other nominees – including some remarkable factual programmes. But who would you like to win, and who will make you a bit cross if they do? The full list of nominees is here, if you need to refresh your memory.