Ontario appears headed toward another minority government with an election expected as early as this spring, a new poll suggests.

The final province-wide Forum Research survey of the year found the Progressive Conservatives at 38 per cent, the governing Liberals at 31 per cent, the New Democrats at 24 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent.

But Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said the results actually indicate another Liberal minority government because the Conservatives over-perform in rural ridings and fare poorly in and around Toronto.

Bozinoff said the data suggests if an election were held now the Liberals would win 51 seats to the Tories’ 43 and 13 for the NDP.

Currently, the Liberals have 49 seats, including Speaker Dave Levac, the Tories 36, and the NDP 20 with two vacancies in the 107-member legislature.

“I know it looks like a strange result to have the Tories seven points ahead but get fewer seats (than the Liberals), but there are so many seats that the Liberals … (would) win by one or two percentage points,” said Bozinoff.

“The Liberal vote is amazingly efficient. Whatever they need that’s what they have to win these ridings and keep their minority. There’s no waste to it. The Tories just pile it on in rural areas,” he said.

Because of that and the quirks of the first-past-the-post electoral system, Bozinoff said the Conservatives likely need to be at 41 or 42 per cent to win outright.

“They’re at 38 (per cent) so they only need to get four points or so, but they have not been able to do it,” he said, referring to his monthly polls over the past two years.

Forum used interactive voice response phone calls to polled 1,044 Ontario residents last Tuesday and Wednesday and results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In terms of personal approval, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath continues to be the most popular of the major party chiefs. Horwath has a 41 per cent approval rating with 35 per cent disapproval, and 24 per cent unsure.

Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne has 35 per cent approval, 52 per cent disapproval, and 13 per cent uncertain.

Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, whose personal popularity has languished behind his rivals in nearly every survey, has 28 per cent approval, 48 per cent disapproval, and 23 per cent with no opinion.

While Horwath is personally well regarded by voters, the poll does illustrate some potential electoral hazards for the NDP that may force the party to reconsider defeating Wynne’s Liberals, warns Bozinoff.

“What they are risking is Tim Hudak as premier. If you’re a union leader, can you imagine? That is a massive risk,” he said.

“For the NDP your downside is (losing) those seven seats and Tim Hudak as premier,” the pollster said, referring to the New Democrats potentially dropping from 20 MPPs down to 13.

“What’s your upside, five more seats? Who would take that risk?”

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Hudak has repeatedly said he wants an election sooner rather than later while Wynne hopes to continue governing as long as she can.

If Horwath, whose party has kept the Liberals afloat through the past two budgets, sides with the Tories to defeat Finance Minister Charles Sousa’s spring spending plan, an election would be triggered.