[Follow our live coverage and updates from Super Bowl 2020 between the 49ers and Chiefs.]

MIAMI — Narratives can push into the absurd in the N.F.L. playoffs, when many fans and journalists, no matter how passionate they claim to be, are often seeing teams for the first time that season. It’s a situation that leads to things like this Super Bowl being conveyed by some as a cut-and-dried case of offense (Kansas City) versus defense (San Francisco), when in reality the 49ers scored more points than the Chiefs during the regular season (479 to 451), while the Chiefs allowed fewer points than the 49ers (308 to 310).

San Francisco is not nearly as dependent on its running game as it has shown in two blowout wins, and Kansas City is not nearly as stout against the run as it looked while bottling up Tennessee’s Derrick Henry two weeks ago. There are plenty of reasons that oddsmakers gave the game a point spread of less than 2 for just the fourth time in Super Bowl history, and a close look reveals paths to victory for both teams.

Here is our prediction for the Super Bowl.

Regular season record against the spread: 136-115-5

Postseason record against the spread: 6-3-1