Surprise surprise: It leads to an impossible season

The survey was not without it’s struggles: The Nuggets took my post down after three responses (though eventually put it back up), someone answered that their team would get 33.5 wins, and 112 people thought it would be absolutely hilarious to write 82 wins (shoutout to Hawks and Lakers fans for the majority of these responses).

Note: I removed all “joke” responses of 0–9 and 79–82 wins, and then some for individual teams that felt like jokes (E.g. Brooklyn Nets, 74 wins).

(or maybe this wasn’t a joke)

How many teams guessed under the Vegas odds?

This isn’t to say that Vegas odds are the be-all-end-all of predictions, but it’s the pre-season ranking that most accurately serves as a reflection of the general consensus going into the season.

So how many teams guessed under Vegas lines? There was only one: The Sacramento Kings (Fans: 26.76, Vegas 28.5). Their misery persists. As for the other 29 teams, there were individuals that guessed less; however, cumulatively, all other fanbases guessed above the Vegas odds.

Okay, so who was the most “off”?

That would be Pelicans fans, who guessed 48.47 wins, 8.97 more wins than Vegas (39.5) thinks they’ll have. In second place for the most optimistic team are the Memphis Grizzlies, who thought they’d win 45.91 games, 8.41 more than the Vegas odds of 37.5.

And what fans were the most accurate/closest to Vegas?

This one shocked me. Coming in as the most-sane, most level-headed fanbase: The Boston Celtics? (Fans: 54.68 Vegas: 54.5). Boston fans were only 0.18 wins off. Think about that for a second. Maybe they’ve turned over a new leaf.

Just how off were most fanbases?

Every team’s record should average out to 41–41 (.500 record). When fans make predictions for their own teams, the average was 45–37 (.550 record). Fans think their teams will win an average of 4 more games than Vegas does.

Can we just see the results?

Sure.