The latest seat prediction from Electoral Calculus another reminder to LAB that the system now works in favour of the Tories. CON average vote share 0.5% behind but with clear lead on seatshttps://t.co/VmVdusO6wz pic.twitter.com/QsV9I7FkL0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2018

This is, of course, on the current old boundaries

I have made this point before but the latest projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is an excellent example of how under current boundaries the system works in favour of the Conservatives.

As can be seen in the January projection above LAB had a 0.5% average poll lead but when fed into the Martin Baxter computation Corbyn’s party ends up with 15 fewer MPs.

The boundary changes, if agreed, make this even more pronounced. If GE17 had taken place under the proposed new electoral map the Tories on June 8th would have secured a majority of 4.

Bedford, where I live, is one of the changes, moving, according to Baxter from a LAB majority of 789 to a CON one of just 9 votes. making it just about the tightest marginal in the country. It is one of just two seats where the gap is down to single figures.

All this means that LAB has to be securing polling leads which are considerably bigger than that which they have been enjoying recently something that doesn’t seem to dampen the red team’s rhetoric.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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