We heard a lot about Charlie Morton in spring training. Signed for 2 years and $14 million this past offseason with the Houston Astros, Morton has made some late career changes to his arsenal. For much of his career he’s been a fairly average pitcher with a fastball that averages around 90-91, but in his brief 2016 appearance he was getting his 2-seam up to 94 on average, a major improvement for someone who’s 33 years old. After a handful of starts, unfortunately Morton blew out his hamstring and sat out the rest of the year. So we were left to wonder if his improved velocity would carry over to 2017, and it turns out that it did. Let’s look at what we can see after one month of baseball.

Morton’s arsenal is mostly a 2-seam, curveball, splitter, and cutter. Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs gives a brief explanation of his pitches here, and for the most part this all checks out with his 2017 numbers. The 2-seam is still a great ground-ball pitch getting 58% grounders (league average 49%). The curveball, which Sullivan says compares best to Strasburg’s, is getting 22% swinging strikes (league average is 11%). Then the cutter and splitter both serve their purposes but aren’t anything special. What stands for improvement is the swinging strikes on the 2-seam. At 4.5% it is below league average, which you’d expect it to be well above average given the velocity. In 2016 it was above average and I’d expect it to return to that eventually this year as well.

The results this year have been somewhat mixed. In 5 starts Morton has faced the Mariners twice, then the Angels, Rays, and A’s all once. All 5 teams are within a game or three of .500 so it’s a fairly good sample of opponents. As I’ve already said, the most important factor here has been shown; Morton has maintained the huge velocity gains he displayed last year and in spring training. At an overall 9.8% swinging strike rate he is above average for starters, but mostly a huge uptick for a guy who’s a career 7.8% in that category. His ground-ball percentage (49%) is down from his career average but still well above average for the league. At first glance his .338 BABIP suggest he’s been unlucky thus far, but opposing hitters have a 43% hard hit rate against him. That’s the 5th highest in baseball, right between Edinson Volquez and Jordan Zimmerman. On the plus side he’s sitting on a 3.40 xFIP and a 3.39 SIERA, both usually pretty sound indicators for future success.

So what we need to watch out for in May is if he is really going to keep getting hit hard or is his stuff going to allow him to become an above average starter. I personally believe the positive signs we are seeing on his arsenal and am willing to give him a longer look. If I have the roster space I’d make the add in 12-team or larger leagues. If you still don’t trust him, and I wouldn’t blame you, then perhaps just an add to the Watch List is appropriate. Three days ago he struck 12 and walked none in 7 innings against Oakland. A start like that is bound to get the attention of your league-mates and mainstream fantasy outlets, so be aware his timeline on availability may be limited.