



While the usual disclaimers apply including the fact that I am no military or political expert, I wonder if it would be useful for SST members to consider what a Syria reborn after the demise of ISIS might decide to become? I also wonder what the Geopolitical fallout of victory over ISIS might be?

Taking the Geopolitical issue first, I am assuming that the successful Russian intervention destroys Washingtons "Monopolar worldview" as it should if we are to avoid nuclear war and that the rebuilding of Syria occurs in an environment of intense competition for influence among "Great Powers (™)" Europe, America, China and Russia.

The latter Two have the front running. The R2P people in D.C. are completely discredited because they not only instigated the war but prolonged it. I fail to see therefore , absent a Pauline conversion, how they can claim any role in Syrian reconstruction. To put that another way, I don't see an American reincarnation of Noel Annan dragging a Conrad Adenauer out of the rubble and promoting him as "their man". Europe? Well they have simple done Washingtons bidding.

Russia in my opinion, stands to gain most - a warm water naval base, perhaps an air base - vengeance for President Obamas "Regional Power" slur. Then of course there are the weapons sales. China? Well there is a lot of spare capacity in the Chinese economy at the moment that might usefully be used for the reconstruction of Syrian infrastructure. The Kurds? More winners.

Who are the losers? Turkey for One, at least under an Erdogan Government. Then there are the Gulf states and the KSA who may wind up facing a united and battle hardened Shia crescent. Israel? Fast footwork may prevent any fall out. They have not (yet) tried to annex the Golan or attack into Lebanon although that might have been the intent had the Assad regime looked like losing.

As for Syria and the Syrian people themselves? I think we may have actually done some nation building here thereby proving the Walrus law - governments achieve the reverse of their stated objectives. My thinking is that winning a war like this is a transformational event for Syrian society. Notwithstanding the realities of Arab behaviour catalogued by Col. Lang, I think the shared experience of this war has the potential to bind Syrians in a national sense - perhaps giving some emotional realities to Sykes - Picot - not just lines on a map anymore, especially if Assad can be magnanimous in victory.

I will cease bloviating and ask you what you think the future might hold for Syria.