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First of all, apologies for the lack of a Gameweek 17 Bookies’ Advantage article, which wasn’t possible due to personal circumstances. Second, I wish you all the best for Christmas, the New Year, and, of course, the remainder of the fantasy football season. With 3 gameweeks now taking place over the course of 9 days, we delve into the bookmakers’ odds for the first of those, Gameweek 18…

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Man Utd 1.7 59% Liverpool 2.05 49% Arsenal 2.05 49% Chelsea 2.15 47% Man City 2.15 47% Middlesbrough 2.62 38% Burnley 2.9 34% Tottenham 3.1 32% Watford 3.1 32% Leicester 3.25 31% Southampton 3.3 30% West Ham 3.75 27% Swansea 3.75 27% Crystal Palace 3.75 27% Everton 3.8 26% Bournemouth 8 13% West Brom 9.5 11% Hull 10 10% Stoke 11 9% Sunderland 11 9%

Manchester United sit top of the bookies’ defensive rankings with a 59% chance of shutting out Sunderland when the Black Cats visit Old Trafford on Boxing Day. The Red Devils are starting to show some of Jose Mourinho’s famed defensive resolve, keeping 2 clean sheets in their last 3 outings, whilst David Moyes’ men have scored just once in their last 3 games. Phil Jones is the cheapest starter in United’s back line and makes our XI.

Liverpool and Arsenal (both 49%) rank joint-second ahead of home ties against Stoke and West Brom respectively. Jurgen Klopp’s side will be looking for their third clean sheet in succession on Tuesday, and will have to be at their defensive best to keep the Potters, who have only blanked once in 8 road trips this term, at bay. The Gunners, meanwhile, will be hoping for a first clean sheet at The Emirates since they drew 0-0 with Middlesbrough back in October, with their hopes boosted by the fact that the Baggies have failed to score in 2 of their last 3. Our search for value at the back sees us plump for Simon Mignolet in goal and Gabriel in defense.

Chelsea and Manchester City rank joint-fourth (both 47%) for Gameweek 18, but we opt for the security of the Blues’ defence (7 clean sheets in 9, compared to 2 in 9 for City), and in particular Marcos Alonso, who offers significant attacking threat from left wingback/midfield. Opponents Bournemouth have failed to find the net in 3 of their 8 away games this season, but have also scored in their last 3. Still, our confidence in the league’s best defence remains high.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Sunderland’s budget friendly Jordan Pickford (£4.0m – 9%) as our backup keeper, with Middlesbrough’s bonus point magnet Ben Gibson (£4.5m – 38%) and Swansea’s Jordi Amat (£4.0m – 27%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Hull (10% – home to Man City), Stoke (9% – away to Liverpool) and Sunderland (9% – away to Man United) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Zlatan Ibrahimovic 1.73 58% Alexis Sanchez 1.8 56% Olivier Giroud 1.9 53% Kelechi Iheanacho 1.95 51% Michy Batshuayi 2 50% Divock Origi 2.14 47% Marcus Rashford 2.18 46% Theo Walcott 2.25 44% Eden Hazard 2.32 43% Nolito 2.33 43% Roberto Firmino 2.38 42% Sadio Mane 2.4 42% Kevin de Bruyne 2.65 38% Romelu Lukaku 2.7 37% Harry Kane 2.75 36% Anthony Martial 2.8 36% Troy Deeney 2.8 36% Leroy Sane 2.8 36% Fernando Llorente 2.88 35% Islam Slimani 2.9 34% Christian Benteke 2.9 34% Andy Carroll 2.95 34% Yaya Toure 3.05 33% Raheem Sterling 3.05 33% Alvaro Negredo 3.1 32% Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.1 32% Juan Mata 3.3 30% Andre Ayew 3.55 28% Riyad Mahrez 3.6 28% James Milner 3.6 28% Pedro 3.65 27% Michail Antonio 3.65 27% Mesut Ozil 3.65 27% Sam Vokes 3.7 27% Dimitri Payet 3.75 27% Sofiane Boufal 3.85 26% Son Heung-Min 3.9 26% Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 3.9 26% Cristhian Stuani 4 25% Dele Alli 4.2 24% Kevin Mirallas 4.25 24% Nathan Redmond 4.3 23% Dusan Tadic 4.3 23% Salomon Rondon 4.33 23% Callum Wilson 4.33 23% Jermain Defoe 4.5 22% Christian Eriksen 4.8 21% Wilfried Bony 4.9 20% Gaston Ramirez 5 20% Bojan 5.1 20% Ross Barkley 5.1 20% Etienne Capoue 5.4 19% Andros Townsend 5.5 18% Joshua King 5.6 18% Jonathan Walters 5.6 18% Wilfried Zaha 5.8 17% Nacer Chadli 6 17% Gerard Deulofeu 6 17% Emre Can 6 17% Adama Traore 6.25 16% Robert Snodgrass 6.3 16% Junior Stanislas 6.75 15% Victor Anichebe 6.75 15% Matt Phillips 8 13% Ryan Mason 9 11%

Zlatan Ibrahimovic tops the bookies’ attacking rankings, and takes our captain’s armband, with a 58% chance of scoring when Sunderland travel to Old Trafford on Monday. The enigmatic Swede is in top form, having scored 7 goals in his last 6 Premier League games, and will be looking to continue his hot streak against David Moyes’ men, who are without an away clean sheet in the league this campaign and conceded 3 to Swansea on their last road trip.

Michy Batshuayi (50%) and Divock Origi (47%) join Zlatan up front in our starting XI. With Diego Costa serving a one match suspension for picking up 5 yellow cards this term, much to the chagrin of many a fantasy football manager, Batshuayi will be given the chance to prove his worth up front for the Blues. The 23 year old Belgian has only notched 1 Premier League goal in 10 appearances (all from the bench), but does have 2 from 3 starts in the League Cup. Opponents Bournemouth have kept just 1 clean sheet away from home this season (8 games), and have conceded 3 in each of their last 2 games on their travels, so opportunities should present themselves for Batshuayi. His fellow Belgian, Origi, has struck 4 times in his last 5 appearances for Liverpool, and entertains a Stoke side that conceded 3 goals to Arsenal in their last away game.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Olivier Giroud (53%) and Kelechi Iheanacho (51%) ahead of meetings with West Brom and Hull respectively, but we overlook both due to their lack of starting security.

Arsenal’s home clash with the Baggies sees us double up on their goalscoring midfielders, with Alexis Sanchez (56%) and Theo Walcott (44%) both making our starting XI. Tony Pulis’ team are without an away clean sheet since the opening day of the season, so Sanchez and Walcott should be able to add to the 12 and 8 goals they have already hit in the Premier League this season.

Eden Hazard (43%) joins the Gunners duo in our starting XI. Also with 8 goals to his name this campaign, Antonio Conte will look to the Belgian superstar, along with the aforementioned Batshuayi, to shoulder the goalscoring burden against Bournemouth in the absence of Diego Costa. Southampton’s Nathan Redmond (23%) completes our first XI ahead of a St Mary’s clash with Tottenham. Usually resolute in defence, Spurs have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 3 away games, so Redmond may be able to add to the 3 goals he has scored for the Saints this term. As is customary, Etienne Capoue (19%) takes the first spot on our substitutes bench.

The bookmakers also fancy the chances of Manchester City quintet Nolito (43%), Kevin de Bruyne (38%), Leroy Sane (36%), Yaya Toure and Raheem Sterling (both 33%) ahead of their plum fixture against Hull, along with Liverpool duo Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane (both 42%), but they are all too expensive for us to afford this gameweek, whilst a raft of other midfielders including Gylfi Sigurdsson (32%), Juan Mata (30%) and Riyad Mahrez (28%) are also overlooked due to budget restraints.