NEW DELHI: Strengthening India Meteorological Department ’s (IMD) prediction of ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall this year, a regional forum under the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Friday too predicted that the rainfall is most likely to be normal during southwest monsoon season (June-September) as a whole over “most parts of South Asia”. The weather forum, however, giving a broad indication of its geographical distribution showed possibility of ‘below normal’ rainfall only over land areas around north Bay of Bengal.This prediction is a step forward as it, unlike the one predicted by the IMD on April 15, also said which part of South Asia, including India, would get normal, above normal and below normal rainfall. The IMD would come out with its month-wise prediction on geographical distribution of rainfall either in last week or May or in first week of June.Referring a new ‘South Asian regional climate outlook’, released after consultation among meteorologists of South Asian countries, Japan and the United Kingdom , the WMO said geographically, “above-normal rainfall is most likely over the southern part and some areas of northwestern parts of the region, and below-normal rainfall is most likely over land areas around north Bay of Bengal and northern most parts of the region.”It said the remaining areas would most likely to get normal rainfall.The regional climate forecast was collaboratively developed by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asian countries with support from international experts at 16th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF). It was held during April 20-22 via video conferencing. It was originally scheduled to be held in Dhaka, Bangladesh.The SASCOF was launched in 2010 under the WMO to engage South Asian countries with similar climate characteristics and strong common interest in understanding and forecasting the monsoon. Its process involves an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different global climate models from around the world.Referring to those assessment, the WMO in its release on Friday said, “The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is known to be one of major influencing factors on South Asian summer monsoon variability, is currently marked by neutral conditions prevailing in the tropical Pacific Ocean.”It further said, “Based on the global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among the experts that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific are cooling and ENSO-neutral conditions likely to prevail during upcoming southwest monsoon season. However, few climate models indicate slight possibility of development of weak La Nina conditions in the later part of the monsoon season or thereafter.”The southwest monsoon accounts for 75-90% of the annual rainfall in most parts of the region, except Sri Lanka and southeastern India.