Democrats are fielding a nearly full slate of Iowa House and Senate candidates this year, leaving far fewer GOP-held seats unchallenged than in the last two midterm elections.

The improvement is particularly noticeable in the Iowa House, where Republicans have an unusually large number of open seats to defend. Twelve of the 59 GOP state representatives are retiring, and a thirteenth seat (House district 43) is open due to Majority Leader Chris Hagenow’s move to safer Republican territory in Dallas County.



The filing period for major-party candidates closed on March 16, and the final list of candidates for state legislative seats is here. The Secretary of State’s office will determine early next week whether Ron Corbett qualified for the GOP ballot for governor and Courtney Rowe and Theresa Greenfield qualified as Democrats running in the first and third Congressional districts.

IOWA HOUSE

Only five Iowa House districts have no Democratic candidate yet.

House district 3 (Dan Huseman)

House district 4 (Skyler Wheeler)

House district 11 (Gary Worthan)

House district 18 (Steven Holt)

House district 54 (Linda Upmeyer)

That’s a tremendous improvement from the last two midterm election cycles. Democrats went into the 2010 election with a 56-44 Iowa House majority and left 24 GOP-held seats uncontested. In 2014, Republicans had a 53-47 House majority, and Democrats did not field a candidate in 22 GOP-held seats.

All of the uncontested seats skew heavily to the GOP in terms of voter registration. But former State Representative Greg Stevens commented on Facebook today,

No seat is safe. We lose 100% of the seats when no Democrat runs. Though the filing deadline is done, we can still get Democrats on the November ballot by nominating by committee. Please, people, in the open seats, run. At worst, the local media has an alternative voice they must cover. If you are lucky, the Republican could implode.

Stevens would know: he agreed to run for the House in 1998 in what was perceived as a hopeless district for Democrats. I highly recommend his entertaining account of how he was talked into being a “sacrificial lamb,” and how he ended up winning that race. Luck played a part; a manure spill from his opponent’s farm caused a large fish kill shortly before the November election.

On a related note, two Republicans who defeated Iowa House Democrats in 2010 (Bob Hager and Brian Moore) didn’t file for the GOP primary but were nominated that summer at district conventions. Strange things happen in a wave election.

Democrats need a net gain of ten seats to regain the House majority. Republicans are unlikely to spend much money on offense in the lower chamber, with the possible exception of the open seat in House district 9 (Fort Dodge). Megan Srinivas is the Democratic candidate for the seat eight-term State Representative Helen Miller is vacating. Ann Meyer and Gary Waechter are seeking the GOP nomination.

Meanwhile, check out the long list of House districts with no Republican candidate at this writing:

House district 13 (Chris Hall)

House district 31 (Rick Olson)

House district 33 (Brian Meyer)

House district 34 (Bruce Hunter)

House district 35 (Ako Abdul-Samad)

House district 36 (Marti Anderson)

House district 40 (John Forbes)

House district 41 (Jo Oldson)

House district 46 (Lisa Heddens)

House district 52 (Todd Prichard)

House district 53 (Sharon Steckman)

House district 59 (Bob Kressig)

House district 61 (Timi Brown-Powers)

House district 62 (Ras Smith)

House district 64 (Bruce Bearinger)

House district 69 (Kirsten Running-Marquardt)

House district 70 (open with Todd Taylor running for the Senate; Tracy Ehlert is the only Democratic candidate)

House district 74 (Dave Jacoby)

House district 77 (Amy Nielsen)

House district 82 (Phil Miller)

House district 85 (Vicki Lensing)

House district 86 (Mary Mascher)

House district 89 (Monica Kurth)

House district 90 (Cindy Winckler)

House district 93 (Phyllis Thede)

Note that Republicans aren’t even trying to beat Phil Miller. The GOP spent six figures trying to win a special election in House district 82 last August. On paper, Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage here.

I wonder whether Republicans deliberately avoided recruiting candidates for some of the safer Democratic seats, in the hope of sapping the incumbents’ commitment to raise money and GOTV in heavily Democratic precincts this fall. Several of the unchallenged incumbents represent plenty of well-off constituents but don’t devote much energy to fundraising.

In a March 16 statement, House Minority Leader Mark Smith argued that the “fantastic crop” of Democratic candidates shows “momentum is building for a blue wave in November 2018. We have candidates running in 95 out of 100 House Districts, which is the biggest number by either party in over 30 years.” That press release emphasized:

Democrats filled 95 of 100 seats and Republicans filled just 75 95 candidates is biggest number of seats filled by either party in over 30 years 113 total Democratic candidates are running for the Iowa House Republicans have 13 open seats, 20% of their members are retiring Republicans lose 117 years of incumbency with their retirements

Although some of the GOP retirements are happening in strongly Republican seats, others look like good prospects for Democratic takeovers.

IOWA SENATE

As in the House races, more Democrats stepped up to run for the Iowa Senate than in the last two midterm election cycles. The party did not field challengers against three GOP state senators in 2010 (when Democrats had a big 32-18 majority in the chamber). Holding only a 26-24 majority in 2014, Democrats failed to recruit candidates against six of the upper chamber’s Republicans, including then Minority Leader Bill Dix.

In contrast, Democrats have at least one candidate running in all but two of the 25 Iowa Senate districts on the ballot this year. The party did not attempt to recruit a candidate in Senate district 1, where independent State Senator David Johnson (who often votes with Democrats) is running for re-election. In that heavily Republican area of northwest Iowa, Johnson will need support from almost all Democrats and most of the no-party voters in order to defeat the winner of a three-way GOP primary between Brad Price, Zach Whiting, and Jesse Wolfe.

State Senator Jason Schultz is the only GOP incumbent in the upper chamber not yet facing an opponent. Senate district 9 is understandably not an easy place to recruit a Democratic candidate, given voter registration totals strongly favoring Republicans. Even so, Democrats could nominate someone here at a special convention later this year.

I enclose below a press release listing all Democrats running for the Iowa Senate in 2018.

Republicans left five Democratic senators unchallenged in 2010 and six unchallenged in 2014. This year, there are six Democratic-held Senate districts with no Republican candidate:

Senate district 17 (Tony Bisignano)

Senate district 23 (Herman Quirmbach)

Senate district 31 (Bill Dotzler)

Senate district 35 (open due to Wally Horn’s retirement; Todd Taylor is the only candidate)

Senate district 37 (open due to Bob Dvorsky’s retirement; Zach Wahls and Janice Weiner are the leading Democratic candidates)

Senate district 45 (Jim Lykam)

Any comments about the 2018 state legislative races are welcome in this thread.

March 16 press release: