Ireland and a victory that had been coming

It was as if Anthony Foley was looking down on Ireland as the players formed a huddle before the start of last Saturday’s Test against New Zealand in Chicago. Ireland were hoping to prevent the All Blacks from extending their record of 18 Test match wins and shaped themselves into a figure of eight, the number worn by Foley, who died suddenly last month, for Shannon, Munster and Ireland.

Less than two hours later the men in green were celebrating their first victory over the All Blacks in 111 years of trying. Their winning score, 40-29, was the exact reverse of the outcome when Foley last played for his country against New Zealand in 2001. On Soldier Field and in a city rich in Irish heritage, there could have been no greater tribute to him.

The victory had been coming for Ireland, who had been close to the All Blacks in two of their three previous matches. They were denied a draw by Dan Carter in the final minute of the Christchurch Test in 2012, despite having led 10-0 at one point, and 17 months later in Dublin they were leading with time up when the All Blacks broke from their own half and tied the scores with a Ryan Crotty try. Aaron Cruden’s conversion took New Zealand home.

There were some common denominators between those two near misses and the win in Chicago: the half-backs Jonathan Sexton and Conor Murray and the full-back Rob Kearney were three of them and this time when Ireland took a double-figure lead – they were 19-0 up in Dublin in the first-half three years ago – they held on to it having taken advantage of Joe Moody’s early yellow card.

Murray and Sexton never let up in their control, offering the Lions a signal for next summer. So harassed was the New Zealand scrum-half Aaron Smith, widely regarded as the best No9 in the world, that not only was he hooked four minutes into the second half but the All Blacks had to play in a hurry. A side renowned for forcing mistakes from opponents became error-strewn and, with the survivors from England’s win over the World Cup holders in 2012, the Lions will have a core of players who have tasted victory over New Zealand.

It was a big result for the international game as well as for Ireland. No one gains from New Zealand being so far ahead of the rest, not least the All Blacks whose head coach, Steve Hansen, can now see how his players react to adversity. It is five years since they lost two matches in a row and, while Italy on Saturday are unlikely to break that run, even with an Irishman in charge, they are in Dublin the following week for what promises to be the highlight of the autumn series.

England are now the team with the longest winning run among the tier one nations, 10 victories since they lost to Australia at Twickenham in last year’s World Cup. A clean sweep in the next four weekends and a second grand slam under Eddie Jones would mean they break New Zealand’s record. But as last weekend showed, even when the All Blacks were 18-1 on with the bookies to defeat Ireland, there are no teams who are too good never to lose.

Jones is now having to manage expectations having taken over a side that has suffered the unprecedented humiliation of being knocked out of its own World Cup at the group stage. South Africa are at Twickenham on Saturday and, while they have not lost to England since 2006, having registered 11 wins and a draw since then, they have lost to Ireland, Australia and Argentina this year, as well as New Zealand.

They look a team in descent rather than transition but, if they reproduce the character and spirit Ireland showed in Chicago, they will have the capacity to surprise. England, like Wales against Australia last weekend, are without three of their back five forwards and are missing Anthony Watson and Jack Nowell on the wing.

It is their first match for more than four months but that did not hinder Ireland last weekend. Jones, who plotted South Africa’s downfall when in charge of Japan during the World Cup, has used his training sessions this season to increase intensity as well as get inside the heads of his players. This will be the time of England’s real transformation and his message this weekend will be to assume nothing and make victory happen by cracking South Africa’s resolve early.

While England are on a winning run, Wales have lost their last five Tests, all to teams above them in the world rankings. Their capitulation, if not defeat, against Australia last Saturday was unexpected because they have in the last eight years made themselves difficult to break down, especially in Cardiff. The Wallabies did so at will in the opening half and, if they had one disappointment in victory, it was that they left as many tries on the field as the five they scored.

Wales generally improve during a series and they expect to be less porous against Argentina this weekend but at a period in the game when there is emphasis on getting the ball away from the breakdown quickly and putting it through hands, what was alarming for the Wales coaches against Australia was that their players needed to be told at half-time how to resolve problems.

The coaches said they were pleased with the response in a more even second half but, even without Sam Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones, Wales surely had players with enough international experience to work out for themselves why Australia were consistently able to find their way over the gainline and create the space for Bernard Foley to befuddle the home defence.

After their third Test defeat by New Zealand in the summer, the tour review pointed to the skill levels of players in the four Welsh regions not being high enough and recommended action. It was a legacy of the old Welsh Rugby Union administration which lavished attention on the elite end of the game: so while the shop window was attractive, the stock room was another matter. The regions were actively discouraged from having contact with clubs in their areas and, though that has now changed, the damage caused will take a while to repair.

Wales are sure to start with more vim and vigour against Argentina but the Pumas are also adept at getting the ball wide. What they need to show on this tour is that they have a rugby brain to go with their ambition. Thought is winning matches again.

• This is an extract taken from the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email, The Breakdown. To subscribe just visit this page and follow the instructions.