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2018 Projections (released February 21, 2017): View Online

Since 1997, FairVote has released projections for U.S. House elections using a model that relies only on previous election results. These projections have been remarkably accurate. Months before the 2016 election, we projected outcomes in 361 U.S. House races, and were correct in all 361. Looking to 2018, we make high confidence projections for the 2018 U.S. House election in 378 races, and expect a similar level of success. Our projections were last updated for retirements on January 10, 2018.

Our 2018 projections reveal:

344 truly safe U.S. House districts, where partisanship is outside the range where both parties can compete, and which represent more than 79 percent of all House seats.

45 "toss-up" districts, with partisanship indicating that each party has roughly an even chance, representing barely ten percent of House seats.

Because of the structural advantages enjoyed by Republicans, we project that if all seats were open and voters nationally were split 50% - 50% between Republicans and Democrats, Republicans would still win 237 seats to Democrats 198. Accounting for incumbency, we would project 242 seats for Republicans and 193 for Democrats in a 50-50 year, a net loss of five seats for the Democratic party. When incumbents retire, we swap the open seat projection for their district with their incumbent projection.

Even if as many as 54% of U.S. voters preferred a Democratic House to a Republican one, Republicans would still likely retain control of the body. Democrats would need more than 54.8% of the National Party Preference to reach 218 seats, the narrowest of majorities.

While the model’s accuracy could likely be improved by incorporating data from public opinion polls, on the candidates, or on their campaigns, the accuracy of our projections in the absence of such information illustrates an important truth about elections under our current system: In the vast majority of cases, the particulars of candidates and campaigns have little impact on the end result. Uncompetitive races mean that outcomes are essentially predetermined, leaving voters without meaningful choices or a compelling reason to go to the polls.

The full projections can be found in the spreadsheets linked above. Users also can also use these sheets to make their own projections, by adjusting the values for the national preference between the major parties (we use a 50-50 projection), and the average advantage earned by incumbents (we give an average "incumbency bump" of 3.3%).