'Twas the weekend before caucuses, when all through Iowa Many a creature was stirring, especially a canvasser. The doorhangers were hung on the doorknobs with care, In hopes that the residents soon would be there.

A lot of people voting in the Iowa caucuses make up their mind as to who they will support at the very last minute. The way that those last minute deciders break has made the difference in the past, and it could do so again.

In 2008, according to exit polls, the latest of the late deciders in Iowa tended to break towards Obama and Edwards. 11% of caucusgoers decided on the day of the caucuses - they voted 31% for Obama, 28% for Edwards, and 20% for Clinton. Those who decided in the last 3 days (9% of caucusgoers) broke 33% for Obama, 27% for Edwards, and 22% for Clinton. Though on the other hand, those who decided in the last week (not including the last 3 days) broke 28% for Edwards, 28% for Clinton, and 24% for Obama.

In 2004, according to exit polls, 41% of caucusgoers in Iowa decided in the last week, and they broke heavily for Kerry and Edwards — 39% for Kerry, 35% for Edwards, and only 18% for Dean. By contrast, Dean won 32% of those who made up their mind before that.

The internet was already a pretty big thing in 2008, and was growing in importance in 2004. Now it is only moreso. When many people (though not everyone) are seeking information and are preparing to make a decision, they consult the internet and type in a search.

What were people in Iowa googling when they made up their mind? What are they googling now?

Google trends shows that over the past week — and especially for the last two days over the weekend (Jan 30 and 31), Bernie Sanders is dominating the google searches of Iowans. Not only are many more people in Iowa searching for Sanders than for Clinton, but also many more are searching for him than for Trump:

2016 Google Trends in Iowa, Pre-Caucuses

2016 Google Trends in Iowa, pre-caucuses

In 2008, there was not such a late breaking surge in google searches for Obama, at least not one that is clearly detectable in retrospect.

The 2008 Iowa Caucuses were held on January 3, 2008. Between December 23 and 29, Hillary Clinton actually had the most google searches of any candidate (34 on the index for her, 31 for Obama and Edwards, 26 for Huckabee, and 25 for Romney). After that, between December 30 to January 5, there was a substantial surge in search activity, with Obama and Edwards the most surged for (with Clinton 3rd, just below Edwards).

However, that period of December 30 to January 5 is mixed in with the caucuses itself, and all the reporting on the results. It is not surprising that Obama and Edwards would get a lot of google searches after having beaten Clinton in the 2008 caucuses. Unfortunately, the resolution is not high enough to tell how much of that surge came right before the caucuses, in the period from December 30 through the evening of January 3, and how much came after that as the results were being reported, and over the next few days:

2008 Google Trends in Iowa, Pre (and Post)-Caucuses

2008 Google Trends in Iowa, pre-caucuses

So make of that what you will — either it means that late google searches are not indicative of how the results will break, or else it means that the race broke to Obama even without such a surge in google trends, then Sanders is in an even better position than was Obama. Or maybe the fact that Clinton was ahead in google searches from December 23-29 is just confirmation that what exit polls say is correct — that people who decided in the last week but not in the last 3 days broke 28% for Clinton, 28% for Edwards, and 24% for Obama. And then maybe there was a really late surge in google searches for Obama from December 30 until the caucuses, which we can't see clearly because it is aggregated together with the caucus results themselves. Or maybe there is just too much noise to tell clearly.

Unfortunately, there is not detailed enough data from 2004 to look at the situation then — internet use was just not widespread enough yet.

I wouldn't pretend to know how strong of an indication, if any at all, this is of how late deciders are likely to break. But for whatever it may be worth, there has been a decided last minute uptick in people in Iowa googling for Bernie Sanders in particular over the weekend, in comparison to the other candidates on both the Democratic and on the Republican side.

We'll see soon enough. We can also see, throughout the day on Monday, whether Bernie Sanders’ late online surge holds.

If late deciders do break for Sanders — which may or may not happen — this may be one of the first indications of it.