“Land scarcity is a very real problem for Singapore, which explains the ever-increasing land costs and property prices which are driven by pent-up demand.”

— SGPropertyReviews.com,

Jan 11, 2014

Singaporeans have been brought up to accept statements like this as a gospel truth. Many do not even question the meaning of scarcity and without looking at the growth of the nation, do not realise that Singapore’s land size has increased by 100 square kilometers in the last 35 years. Add to that the advances in space planning, improved transport systems, enhanced construction capabilities leading to a much higher population density and “Voila!”, we have 5.54 million people today.

Traffic travels along the Tampines Expressway past public buildings in Punggol (right), while a man enters his home in Sengkang, where the number of flats under HDB management are projected to increase to 92,000 from the current 59,497

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The brief statistics are, in the 35-year period between 1980 and 2015, our population grew 129% from 2.41 million to 5.54 million, made possible by a 16% increase in land size from 617.9 sqkm to 719.1 sqkm and a 97% increase in population density from 3,907 people per sqkm to 7,697 people per sqkm.

Table 1: Singapore’s land size grew by 100 sqkm while her population grew by 3.1 million over the 35-year period from 1980 to 2015.

Year Population Land size Population density (per sq km) 1980* 2,413,945 617.9 3,907 1985 2,735,957 620.5 4,409 1990* 3,047,132 633.0 4,814 1995 3,524,506 647.5 5,443 2000* 4,027,887 682.7 5,900 2005 4,265,762 696.9 6,121 2010* 5,076,732 710.4 7,146 2015 5,535,002 719.1 7,697

Notes:

* Census of population

Prior to 2003, data are based on Singapore’s land area as at end-December. From 2003 onwards, data are based on Singapore’s land area as at end-June.

Data on population from 2003 onwards exclude residents who have been away from Singapore for a continuous period of 12 months or longer as at the reference period.

Source: SingStat, Century 21 (IPA)

Even though land reclamation allowed us to increase our land mass, there are many amongst us who do not feel that there is ever enough, and continue to insist that 719.1 sqkm of land is considered scarce.

Scarcity or otherwise, let us at least recognize that we have carried a misconception for several generations: the phrase “land is scarce” does not equate to “space is scarce”. We have been stacking more and more people on top of one another and packing people closer together to create higher and higher population density.

Technology has improved. Our capabilities have improved. Lifestyles have changed. Today we are better able to accommodate higher population densities because of better construction standards, better space planning, better transport systems and we have flexible working hours with many knowledge workers working longer hours in cafes and from homes.

For those who have not been putting the various pieces of the Master Plan together, we present a summary of various pieces of “work in progress” in the real estate front that will allow Singapore to accommodate a 10 million population from around the year 2050. We also make the bold assumption that the Transport and Health authorities are expanding their capacity to match the population increase.

One more somewhat audacious assumption on the back of our low birthrates: Singapore’s environments and economy will remain sufficiently attractive such that there is a constant stream of population inflow to sustain a population growth to 10 million people.

Based on scattered bits of public information announced over the past few years and gluing them together with our assumptions, the sections below will reveal to us how the residential landscape can evolve to house our growing population.

Existing HDB towns – 535,144 more units in the pipeline

Table 2 provides us with a glimpse of the long term dwelling plans undertaken by the Housing & Development Board (HDB). For 23 of the HDB towns, their total land area and the total number of flats currently being managed by HDB. The projected maximum number of dwelling units, which includes HDB flats and future government land sales for private residences, are also listed. Do note that the projected ultimate number does not include residences that will be built on private land, or enbloc redevelopments of apartments on state land.

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