With every passing week, the depth of the Tories’ problem becomes clearer. Nigel Farage is hoovering up Conservative voters in their millions, with the aim of keeping hold of them long after the European Parliament elections. He hopes to pick up where Ukip left off, going after Labour in the north and the Tories in the south. “At this rate, we’ll be lucky to get 10 per cent of the vote,” says one Cabinet member. “He is asking why anyone would trust what the Tories say on Brexit. We need a leader with an answer.”

There is no shortage of would-be candidates. The race has begun, wives are being paraded and wide-ranging speeches are being written. Theresa May is turning out to be an inspiration in that so many MPs think they could do a better job. The latest is Esther McVey, one of the many former work and pension secretaries, who declared yesterday. She didn’t offer much of a reason, but none is really needed nowadays. As a Brexiteer, she can promise to see off Mr Farage by delivering Brexit – but then again, they all say that. The question is how.

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There is only one plausible answer: the next Conservative leader will have to announce that Britain will leave the European Union on 31 October without a deal, unless the European Union makes a better offer.