Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics. Read more opinion LISTEN TO ARTICLE 4:55 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Share Tweet Post Email

Photographer: Katharine Lotze/Getty Photographer: Katharine Lotze/Getty

In terms of substance, the conclusion of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation was good news for Donald Trump. Not as good as Trump claimed. Not, perhaps, as good as Attorney General William Barr suggested in his summary of the case. Overall, though, the story of Mueller’s probe surely looks better for Trump now than it did 10 days ago.



But the politics? There the news is all bad for Trump. A week after Barr’s summary – and after some pretty successful spin from the Trump team that produced a lot of favorable coverage – there’s been no reaction at all from the electorate.



On March 22, the day Mueller’s report was delivered, FiveThirtyEight estimated that Trump’s approval rating was at 41.9 percent and his disapproval at 52.9 percent. By March 31, he had inched up to 42.1 percent approval and stayed flat at 52.9 percent disapproval. It’s possible that the mix of polls or random fluctuations are masking a small improvement. It’s also possible that the news has been slow to reach those who pay less attention to politics. But those theories are increasingly difficult to buy as the days go on and the story fades. Nor are polls about the investigation showing any radical shift toward Trump. So it seems likely that Mueller’s report isn’t changing many minds.



Here’s why that’s bad news for Trump. His approval rating is the second-worst of any president on record after 801 days in office, which is where Trump was on Sunday. Only Ronald Reagan, at 41.1 percent, was worse. Trump is dead last in disapproval rating. No other president was over 50 percent. He’s also last in net approval (that is, approval minus disapproval) at -10.7.



Trump’s numbers have been unusually steady. His poor rating, and his low ranking among the 13 presidents of the polling era, isn’t a temporary fluke caused by recent bad news. It’s just where he always is. He’s been net negative since the earliest days of his presidency, and his disapproval has been over 50 percent for two years now. In fact, he’s been last in disapproval for all but about a month of his presidency.



Things could change, of course. When Reagan’s numbers dipped to this level, he had just started a comeback, which eventually delivered him a huge landslide in 1984. Bill Clinton’s comeback was well underway by April 1995. Barack Obama still hadn’t hit his first-term low at this point in 2011, but he too rallied and his ratings were pretty good by Election Day in 2012.



So there’s plenty of time for Trump to recover. It’s just hard to imagine what exactly could spark a strong approval rally for him. Reagan, Clinton and Obama were all hurt by the economy early in their terms, then benefited from recoveries. It’s technically possible that the economy will improve in 2020, but it doesn’t seem likely that such a long expansion will suddenly pick up steam. Nor is it likely that perceptions of the economy – already strong – will start to improve dramatically.



Clinton also benefited when some scandals from the early days of his administration started to fade away. That’s why I think it’s a particularly bad sign for Trump that good news on his most visible scandal had no immediate effect.



The truth is, we don’t know why Trump is so unpopular, especially at a moment of relative peace and prosperity for the U.S. It could be the various scandals. It could be his refusal to behave like a normal president. It could be that his divisive campaign permanently alienated a lot of people. It could also be the specific unpopular public-policy positions he holds, whether it’s the tax law, health care, immigration, his border wall or some combination.



But whatever the reason, it’s hard to believe that a president could be reelected when more than half the country thinks he’s doing a bad job. And if nothing so far has shaken Trump’s unpopularity, what’s going to happen in the next 19 months to do so?



1. Julia Azari at Mischiefs of Faction with a big-picture look at what the 2020 Democrats are facing.



2. Also at Mischiefs, a team of researchers on split-ticket voting, the partisan press and more in Wisconsin.



3. Nermin Allam at the Monkey Cage on women’s rights in Saudi Arabia.



4. Daniel Nichanian on voting rights in Mississippi.



5. Jesus Rodriguez on Democratic candidates butchering their Spanish-language web pages.



6. Jonathan Cohn on what would happen if the courts ruled that all of Obamacare must go.



7. Ryan Reilly on how Trump is hurting the FBI.



8. I like Taegan Goddard’s interactive Electoral College map.



9. And it can’t possibly surprise anyone that Trump cheats at golf, can it? Gavin Newsham has the details. Yet another area where a bit of fudging is pretty normal for presidents – I seem to remember that Bill Clinton took numerous mulligans – but Trump, apparently, is off the scale.



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