Enlarge By Mandel Ngan, AFP/Getty Images Outgoing White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel pauses as he announces his departure from the West Wing Friday at the White House. CHICAGO  Last week, Rahm Emanuel was a Washington VIP with a White House office steps away from President Obama's. This week, he enters a crowded mayoral race here with victory far from certain, people say. "Chicago has humbled a lot of people," says Thom Serafin, a Chicago political analyst. Emanuel, he says, must move quickly to build political constituencies in the city's ethnic neighborhoods, where crime, education and the economy are the chief concerns. Marty Oberman, a lawyer and former alderman, says Emanuel won't join the race as the front-runner. "He will probably be the leading fundraiser, which makes him a major contender, but ... it's hard for anybody to make a sensible prediction," he says. On Sunday, Emanuel posted a video on his website announcing that he'll visit Chicago neighborhoods "as I prepare to run for mayor." Leading Chicago, he said, "would be a great responsibility and a tremendous privilege." Emanuel left his job as White House chief of staff Friday. CHANGING OF THE GUARD: New chief of staff is an outside insider A Chicago Sun-Times poll conducted after Mayor Richard Daley announced Sept. 7 that he wouldn't seek a seventh term found Emanuel in fifth place among registered voters. Ahead of him were Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, state Sen. James Meeks, U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez and U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. In the poll, 35% said they didn't know whom they would support. Few prospective candidates have announced their plans; some are gathering signatures for qualifying petitions. Candidates have until Nov. 22 to file for the non-partisan primary election Feb. 22. If no one gets a majority, the top two vote-getters would have a runoff election in April. Emanuel, 50, was born in Chicago and from 2003 to 2009 represented part of the city's north side in the U.S. House of Representatives. He became Obama's chief of staff in January 2009. Political consultant Phil Molfese says Emanuel's high profile gives him "a national base to raise money from, an elevated platform to speak from" and an opening for opponents to depict him as a Washington insider. "Whether that sticks or not remains to be seen," he says. Oberman says the campaign probably will hinge on Chicago's $650 million budget deficit, high unemployment and inner-city violence. "The big unknown about Rahm is how people in neighborhoods, of all ethnic stripes, will respond to him," he says. Samuel Johnson, 43, a Chicago construction worker, says Emanuel "seems tough and competent. We need that." Elizabeth Morton, 54, an office manager, isn't so sure. "When's the last time Rahm was in my neighborhood?" she says. "I need to be convinced that he understands Chicago." Emanuel's decision to abandon his high-powered Washington job and return to his hometown doesn't surprise people here. He'll be joined eventually by David Axelrod, an Obama adviser who told the Sun-Times he considers himself "a Chicagoan on assignment" in D.C. and plans to spend the rest of his life here. Singer-actress Jennifer Hudson told Michigan Avenue magazine she plans to move back to her hometown from Tampa this fall. "Everyone is excited to go to Washington, but the time you spend there, it's brutal," Molfese says. "In Chicago ... you can be who you really are." Guidelines: You share in the USA TODAY community, so please keep your comments smart and civil. Don't attack other readers personally, and keep your language decent. Use the "Report Abuse" button to make a difference. You share in the USA TODAY community, so please keep your comments smart and civil. Don't attack other readers personally, and keep your language decent. Use the "Report Abuse" button to make a difference. Read more