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Politics fan Gareth Hay outlines what he thinks could be the fallout if UK Prime Minister Theresa May holds firm on denying Scotland a second referendum

THE Scottish National Party has rarely over the past 15 years been out manoeuvred by any party or person and there have been quite a few attempts.

It navigated a minority government to secure the first majority government in a parliamentary system designed to prevent majorities. Despite then losing a referendum on independence, it secured 56 of 59 seats at Westminster in a UK-wide General Election less than a year later, followed by an increase in its constituency first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats at Holyrood the following year, with that party only being denied an outright majority in the parliament, quite rightly, by proportional representation.

In most terms, the SNP is the most successful electoral party in the UK today, with a seemingly stronger mandate than any other party, governing or not.

The definition of mandate is usually taken to mean “the authority to carry out a policy, regarded as given by the electorate to a party or candidate that wins an election”.

The definition of mandate is usually taken to mean “the authority to carry out a policy, regarded as given by the electorate to a party or candidate that wins an election”.

The UK Government is quick to suggest that no such mandate exists in Scotland. The evidence, however, is far to the contrary. Notwithstanding what I have mentioned already, the clear fact is that the SNP won the last Scottish election. It is by some distance the largest party. Contrast Westminster, where the Labour party trailed the Conservatives by just six per cent at the last General Election.

In Scotland, the SNP has nearly double the support of either of its rivals in percentage terms. It couldn’t be clearer: the SNP won, it has a mandate and it speaks for a larger percentage of the electorate than the party governing the UK.

All of this is relevant as we head into a genuine constitutional crisis. I don’t use that term lightly. It was also completely avoidable, but for the arrogance and superiority that has been created by a mere six per cent vote share victory at Westminster.

Scotland could not be clearer at the ballot box. The SNP was given a mandate to secure a second referendum if there was a material change in circumstances. The Brexit vote has created such circumstances. So after careful consideration, the SNP government is about to ask for permission to hold the referendum.

The UK Government is quick to suggest that no such mandate exists in Scotland. The evidence, however, is far to the contrary. The clear fact is that the SNP won the last Scottish election.

However, the prime minister, the secretary of state for Scotland and the branch office manager of the Scottish Conservatives have simultaneously announced that there will be no referendum until they say so.

There is, of course, a difference between mandate and power. There is something perverse about the country which claims to be the ‘father of democracy’ imposing its will and denying its citizens the right to self-determination. Sadly, that is the current situation.

Once again, the opponents of the SNP have been found to react to situations, badly, rather than predict them in the first place.

While Theresa May’s statements opposing democracy and the rights of Scots are cheered in Westminster, they rarely play as well outside of that bubble. I cannot believe that anyone who is about to embark on the most complicated act of self-harm in history, namely Brexit, is incapable of realising the constitutional crisis she has just created, needlessly.

A second referendum is, of course, completely unnecessary. Had David Cameron not announced English votes for English laws (Evel) while the indyref counting centre lights were still cooling down, there would have been a better reaction to his offer of “a partnership of equals”.

However, the prime minister, the secretary of state for Scotland and the branch office manager of the Scottish Conservatives have simultaneously announced that there will be no referendum until they say so.

Instead he re-assured Scots, more or less, ‘we are more equal than you’. This was followed by the government not accepting one amendment from the SNP on the new Scotland Act, the Westminster delivery of the Cameron, Milliband, Brown Vow.

It is not rocket science to see that accepting some amendments would have been seen as listening to Scotland, making future arguments to the contrary far more difficult. Delivering a whitewash on amendments served the exact opposite, stoking up more discontent.

Then Brexit arrived and a prime minister who voted to Remain kept reassuring Scots that she was listening once more, yet all offers of compromise were batted away in favour of placating a hard right faction within the party she now leads.

Finally, instead of listening to Scotland once more, when the democratically elected leader of Scotland announced to invoke a manifesto pledge, the people of Scotland were told they were just playing games.

In reality, the Tories have been caught short, and their knee-jerk reaction shown to be mindbogglingly stupid. Not only does the hard “no way” play directly into the hands of the SNP, it signals to Europe that the UK can be very easily out played, and will lead to Brexit disaster.

There is, of course, a difference between mandate and power. There is something perverse about the country which claims to be the ‘father of democracy’ imposing its will and denying its citizens the right to self-determination.

To use the ridiculous parlance of Brexit cult followers, this leaves the SNP with all the cards in its hand. While the Conservative government believes it has all the power, in reality it will have to concede to a referendum.

The other options are to call a snap election in Westminster, disband Holyrood, or pray the SNP just accepts that there will be no second referendum.

A snap UK election is unlikely to change the position of the key players. The SNP could theoretically choose to stand candidates outside Scotland with an anti-Brexit position. Given the current woes of Labour, it may well take Scotland again, and some seats in England, though not enough to actually damage the Conservatives.

In any event, it is likely May would increase her majority, but the constitutional position would be unaltered.

May could even contest the election on the removal of devolved administrations. Aside from the fact that would be disastrous with regards to Northern Ireland, devolution brought about a decrease in non-English MPs. Disbanding devolved assemblies without increasing the number of MPs to represent these territories would result in a net loss of representation since before devolution, and would not likely be well tolerated by any outside of England.

Once again, the opponents of the SNP have been found to react to situations, badly, rather than predict them in the first place.

Her only other option is to hope the SNP has a sudden change of convictions and simply sits idly by and accepts there will be no referendum. If you believe that will happen, then you’ll likely believe I have £350m a week for the NHS.

As the SNP is not going to sit idly by, if the UK Government position does not concede granting an Section 30 order I highly anticipate that the SNP would collapse the current Holyrood administration and call an election of its own. The election would be fought to seek a mandate.

Has May considered it may be for more than just a Section 30 agreement? Having put the idea of mandate front and centre, an SNP election campaign on “making the people sovereign” and to “exercise the democratic will of the people” is fairly likely.

As such, the SNP would undoubtedly seek permission to ask again for Section 30 powers, but it is unlikely to stop there. Its mandate could seek to go further if Section 30 was still denied.

Permission to unilaterally walk away from the union could be sought under those circumstances, with the caveat that there was an immediate referendum on

rejoining the UK.

To use the ridiculous parlance of Brexit cult followers, this leaves the SNP with all the cards in its hand. While the Conservative government believes it has all the power, in reality it will have to concede to a referendum.

Such an action is asking the sovereign people of Scotland for their democratic decision, in view of that democratic decision being blocked by Westminster. It is inconceivable that Scotland would be shunned by the international community, since the only reason for such action is the denial of democracy.

Such action wouldn’t be without problems for Scotland. We would crash out of the EU immediately and would have to negotiate a return which would perhaps lead to a multiple question referendum: the UK, the EU or none of the above – the point being that the Scottish people would be making the decision democratically, something the Conservative UK Government is scared of.

This is, perhaps, rightly so, as the very people it is negotiating Brexit with would be witnessing it acting in a most absurd manner to a country which is seeking immediate membership of the European Union.

It remains Theresa May’s best option to concede on Section 30 and campaign for the union. All other options will write her into the history books as the last prime minister of the UK, and finish her political career.

It is inconceivable that the SNP hasn’t thought through all the scenarios. One thing you can be sure of is that the SNP is unlikely to take no for an answer and just eat its cereal.

May has, unnecessarily, poked a hornet’s nest, with no real answer for how she is going to get the hornets back into the nest and deal with the stings.

Picture courtesy of Number 10