Warning sign? More than 35k mail-in ballots rejected — Democrats have large vote-by-mail lead in Florida — Shocked by strength of Hurricane Sally

Hello and welcome to Friday.

The daily rundown — Between Wednesday and Thursday, the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased by 3,255 (nearly 0.5 percent), to 674,456; total hospitalizations went up 196 (nearly 0.5 percent), to 42,047; deaths rose by 147 (1.1 percent), to 13,086.


Doing the math — How many ballots in Florida won’t get counted in November? It could be tens of thousands, if the August primary is a sign of things to come.

Examination — An analysis of mail-in ballot rejections across the state done for POLITICO shows that more than 35,000 ballots were not counted for a variety of reasons: The ballots arrived after the 7 p.m. Election Day deadline or the ballots arrived but missing the voter’s signature.

Everything counts — That overall rejection rate matches previous elections says Dan Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who has studied ballot rejection rates. But Florida could experience a wave of mail-in ballots that causes the overall number to shoot up. Some 60 percent of all votes came through the mail during the primary. If that happens again, tens of thousands of ballots could be rejected — a situation that could prove pivotal since many elections in Florida are decided by a narrow margin. President Donald Trump won Florida by fewer than 113,000 votes four years ago.

What deadline? — Democrats have challenged Florida’s Election Day deadline in court twice now, and in the last two years have been rebuffed by federal judges. Part of the problem isn’t the law. It can be voters themselves. Pasco County Supervisor of Elections Brian Corley said his office received ballots that were mailed on Election Day.

Déjà vu? — Democrats have touted their vote-by-mail advantage heading into the general election and Joe Biden's campaign says it will stress how “easy” it is to vote by mail. But hey, it’s not like a presidential election has hinged on what happens in Florida by, say, 537 votes, right?

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

Shana tova to all our readers celebrating Rosh Hashanah the next few days.

THE FIFTY: Governors and mayors have never mattered more to the future of the nation, and The Fifty, a new series from POLITICO, takes you inside the role they’re playing in the pandemic and more.





TRAIL MIX

TOSSED — “More than 35,000 ballots mail-in ballots were rejected in Florida primary,” by POLITICO’s Marc Caputo and Gary Fineout: More than 35,500 vote-by-mail ballots didn’t count in Florida’s recent primary, rejected because of missed deadlines or technical flaws, an analysis for POLITICO has found. The rejections, which accounted for about 1.5 percent of the total vote, came as the battleground state prepares for what could be record voter turnout in the too-close-to-call November presidential election. Nearly 66 percent of the rejected absentee ballots were disqualified because they arrived after Florida’s 7 p.m. Election Day deadline.

CAN IT LAST? — “Florida Democrats have built a vote-by-mail lead. Now comes the hard part,” by POLITICO’s Matt Dixon: Democrats in Florida, a must-win state for President Donald Trump, have requested roughly 730,000 more election ballots ahead of the general election than Republicans, who have seen their traditional vote-by-mail dominance eroded by the president’s efforts to brand it as a vehicle for widespread fraud. As of Thursday morning, Democrats in the nation’s largest swing state had requested 2.3 million mail ballots, compared to 1.5 million requests from registered Republican voters. It’s a good -- but not conclusive -- early sign for Democrats less than six weeks from Election Day in a state where every vote counts. Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are all but deadlocked in the state, where Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just 166,911 votes. “Of course it’s a great indicator,” said state Rep. Evan Jenne, a Broward County Democrat who is helping coordinate the party’s House campaigns this cycle. “But there are a number of different things that will go into who wins on Election Day, and we can’t sleep on a lead.”

WHAT’S IN YOUR WALLET? — “Big GOP donors rush to rescue Trump,” by POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt: Republican Party megadonors are racing to bail out President Donald Trump’s cash-strapped reelection campaign, with a newly formed super PAC pouring another $25 million into battleground states….Rather than propping up Trump, they are focused squarely on tearing down Biden. The ads will run on TV and online in Arizona, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. They will also appear in Iowa, where Trump is off the airwaves this week, and in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the president is being outspent more than two-to-one.

WHO’S COUNTING? — “DeSantis: I’ve raised more for Trump than any governor,” by POLITICO’s Matt Dixon: Gov. Ron DeSantis said he is raising large sums for President Donald Trump‘s re-election effort, countering complaints that he isn’t doing enough for the campaign. DeSantis appeared on Fox & Friends Thursday morning to talk about Hurricane Sally‘s impact on the western Florida Panhandle, but the interview quickly turned to the presidential race.

YBOR CITY SWING — “Ivanka Trump visits Tampa, continuing campaign focus on Florida,” by Tampa Bay Times’ William March: “The Donald Trump presidential campaign continued its intense focus on Florida, and Tampa, with a visit by presidential daughter Ivanka Trump Thursday to two iconic Ybor City spots, the Columbia Restaurant and La Segunda bakery. At La Segunda, Trump talked to fourth-generation family owners Copeland and Stephanie More, then pushed up the sleeve of her dress and learned how to roll out a loaf of the bakery’s famous Cuban bread under the tutelage of baker Tony Ali. She left with a loaf.”

LIMBO — “How Republicans undermined ex-felon voting rights in Florida,” by New York Times’ Patricia Mazzei and Michael Wines: “Jeff Gruver voted for the first time ever in March, casting an enthusiastic ballot for Bernie Sanders in Florida’s presidential primary. He was planning to vote for Joseph R. Biden Jr. in November until he found out on Friday he would not be voting at all. A federal appeals court ruled that Floridians with felony criminal records like himself would be ineligible to vote unless they paid back all their outstanding court fines and fees — in his case, at least $801. He does not have the money. And he does not want to take any risk that his vote could be deemed illegal.”

‘NOT ACCURATE’ — “Senate Republicans renounce Trump’s claim that election results ‘may never be’ determined,” by POLITICO’s Andrew Desiderio and Marianne LeVine: The president's assertions have been based on unsubstantiated claims about mail-in voting, which is expected to be widespread this year because of the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. intelligence officials have also warned that foreign actors, including the Russian government, have amplified similar claims in order to instill doubt in the process. Twitter officials flagged Trump’s tweet as “potentially misleading statement regarding the process of mail-in voting” — and many GOP senators agreed. “It’s just not accurate,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), acting chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said when asked whether Trump’s comment was inappropriate.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., asks a question to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a Senate Foreign Relations committee hearing on the State Department's 2021 budget on Capitol Hill Thursday, July 30, 2020, in Washington. (Greg Nash/Pool via AP)

NOT IMPRESSED — “Florida’s direct mail voter outreach is too little, too late, critics say,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Jeffrey Schweers: But voting rights advocates and Democratic Party officials criticize the timing of the mailing as too little, too late, since the registration deadline is Oct. 5 and the U.S. Postal Service has been experiencing mail delays as it consolidates and shuts down mail sites. To them, it's just another example of foot-dragging by the DeSantis administration when it comes to increasing voter registration. ‘These postcards should have been sent sooner, and this initiative should not be their only effort to increase access to the ballot box,’ Florida Democratic Party Chair Terrie Rizzo said.”

OOPS? — “Senate candidate Jason Brodeur and his wife claimed homestead exemptions on 2 homes,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Steven Lemongello: “GOP state Senate candidate Jason Brodeur and his wife, Christina Daly Brodeur, each claimed a separate homestead exemption on their homes during the first years of their marriage from 2016 to 2018, taking advantage of a provision that the head of the state property appraisers organization said should only apply to separated or estranged couples.”

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Billionaire Mike Bloomberg’s promise to spend $100 million in Florida is already starting to have an impact. Priorities USA Action will begin airing two ads on Friday that were paid by a $5.4 million donation from Bloomberg. The ads take aim at Trump’s handling of the coronavirus….President Donald Trump’s campaign is launching a new Spanish-language ad called “Cuento Chino” that contends that Hispanics would be hurt due to Democratic Joe Biden’s “weakness” with China … The Democratic National Committee is marking National Black Voter Day with a full-page print ad in Fort Lauderdale’s Westside Gazette criticizing Trump’s pandemic response. The ad includes a reference to Trump’s 2016 comments to Black voters by saying “What do we have to lose? A lot. We’ve lost jobs. We’ve lost lives.” The ad also directs readers to check their registration at the DNC’s voter participation website iwillvote.com … Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez announced a series of endorsements for his re-election campaign by a bipartisan group of mayors including Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.

— “Voting begins in Florida as military families, overseas residents cast ballots by fax,” by Miami Herald’s David Smiley, Aaron Leibowitz and Mary Ellen Klas

— “Trump campaign plots winning maps without Florida (but insists they won’t be needed),” by McClatchy DC’s Francesca Chambers and Miami Herald’s David Smiley





AFTERMATH — “Rescuers reach people cut off by Gulf Coast hurricane,” by Associated Press’ Jay Reeves, Annie Wang and Bobby Caina Calvan: “Rescuers on the Gulf Coast used high-water vehicles Thursday to reach people cut off by floodwaters in the aftermath of Hurricane Sally, even as a second round of flooding took shape along rivers and creeks swollen by the storm’s heavy rains. Across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, homeowners and businesses began cleaning up, and officials inspected bridges and highways for safety, a day after Sally rolled through with 105 mph (165 kph) winds, a surge of seawater and 1 to 2 1/2 feet (0.3 to 0.8 meters) of rain in many places before it began to break up.”

SHOW OF STRENGTH — “A distressing rescue and a shocked community. Perdido Key shocked by Hurricane Sally’s strength,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Kirsten Fiscus: “In five years aboard the Tropical Hideaway Too, Jerry Ash has ridden out some bad storms before, but Hurricane Sally was different. Anchored at the Perdido Key RV Resort and Marina, Ash and his compatriots in their similarly tied up sailboats, hunkered down for the night before the winds picked up. None of them were expecting it to get as bad as it did Wednesday. ‘I’ve been through some bad ones before, but I know better,” Ash said about riding through a hurricane on the boat. “No one thought it would be like this.’”

THE TOLL — “Early Sally damage assessments show $29 million in damage to roads and public buildings,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Jim Little: “More than 24 hours after Hurricane Sally made landfall, nearly $29 million of damage has been assessed to public infrastructure in Escambia County and Pensacola, but that number is likely to grow. Officials from both Escambia County and the city of Pensacola have been out making initial assessments of damage to roads, bridges and public buildings.”

— “Gulf Power: No estimate yet for when power will back in Escambia, Santa Rosa,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Colin Warren-Hicks

— ‘All hands on deck’: Gov. DeSantis outlines help for Pensacola after Hurricane Sally,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Kevin Robinson

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

WHERE’S THE MONEY? — “Osceola awaits $50 million in CARES relief from Florida. Delay ‘truly unacceptable,’ chairwoman says,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Ryan Gillespie: “Osceola County officials called on Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday to quickly release more pandemic relief dollars to their county, where the unemployment rate is higher than anywhere else in the state, food pantry shelves need to be restocked and families need help with the rent.”

MASK V. NO MASK — “Florida commission not ready to repeal mask ordinance yet,” by Associated Press’ Tamara Lush and Terry Spencer: “Some residents of one of Florida’s largest counties called for its commission Thursday to rescind an ordinance requiring the wearing of masks in public to stop the spread of the coronavirus, saying it is no longer needed and is an infringement of their rights.”

MEANWHILE — “COVID-19 surge in Hillsborough, Southwest Florida, thermometer data indicates,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Langston Taylor: “Hillsborough County and Southwest Florida could be on the verge of another rise in cases of the novel coronavirus, warns a company that tracks fevers to spot early signs of spreading disease. Kinsa Health relies on more than one million internet-connected thermometers across the country to try to detect outbreaks before people can get tested or go to the doctor. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the company’s data has shown spikes in certain regions two or three weeks before a similar jump in confirmed cases.”

INTERESTING TAKE — “After coronavirus cases soared, prison chief says state response was ‘effective,'” by Miami Herald’s Ana Ceballos: “Florida Corrections Secretary Mark Inch said the state’s response to the coronavirus pandemic was ‘effective,’ even after the virus sickened roughly 20% of inmates and killed 120 in prisons. Inch, who recently recovered from his own battle with COVID-19, downplayed initial fears that the virus would spread ‘like wildfire’ inside prisons during the outset of the pandemic.”

WATCH THIS SPACE — “Superintendent Alberto Carvalho’s nonprofit investigated over donation for teachers,” by Miami Herald’s Colleen Wright: “Superintendent Alberto Carvalho’s nonprofit foundation is under investigation by the Office of the Inspector General for Miami-Dade County Public Schools regarding a solicited donation from K12, the company that provided the district with an online platform that bombed and was ultimately scrapped during a tumultuous first two weeks of virtual schooling.”

— “Jobless claims down in Florida, companies still struggling,” by News Service of Florida’s Jim Turner

— “Lawsuit by Florida teachers is still alive. Here’s where things stand,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Jeffrey S. Solochek

— “Hemingway’s favorite Key West bar reopens from virus shutdown,” by Associated Press

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

SWING SWIFT — “Prison system, workers wrangle over shift changes,” by News Service of Florida’s Dara Kam: “As Florida’s corrections department grapples with deadly coronavirus outbreaks, staff shortages and high turnover rates, a drawn-out legal battle over changes to prison workers’ shifts is escalating. The latest legal twists come as the Florida Department of Corrections on Friday will move forward with the switch from 12-hour to 8.5-hour shifts at 17 prisons, despite objections from the union representing correctional officers and a Leon County judge.”

ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN

— “Brazilian butt-lift surgery kills again in Miami, despite stricter regulation,” by Miami Herald’s David Ovalle: “Gia Romualdo-Rodriguez traveled from New York to Miami for surgery at Xiluet, a clinic that specializes in breast enhancements, tummy tucks and Brazilian butt lifts. But during surgery this week, her oxygen levels and heart rate plunged. Unable to save her, the surgeon called 911. Romualdo-Rodriguez was rushed to Kendall Regional Hospital, according to Miami-Dade police, but it was too late.”

BIRTHDAYS: Former Secretary of State Ken Detzner ... Katrina Bishop, former comms director for Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart ... Lawyer and lobbyist Reggie Garcia ... Jeff Sadosky, former communications director for Republican Party of Florida ... Former journalist John Van Gieson ... Orlando Sentinel editor Mark Skoneki.



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