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To keep the momentum going, GM may have to overcome a drop in auction values that Ford has said is spreading beyond passenger cars to larger vehicles. More automakers may join Ford in reassessing profit forecasts for their captive lending arms after making overly optimistic assumptions about the future value of used vehicles, Joe Spak, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Dec. 7 report.

New vehicle sales have jumped each of the last seven years, the longest period since at least the days of the Model T. When used car values were strong, it enabled automakers to offer consumers cheaper lease payments.

Leasing has helped consumers afford new vehicles becoming more expensive than ever. Prices have climbed 13 percent to $34,067 over the past five years, according to Edmunds.com, a rise partially driven by booming popularity of pricier trucks and sport utility vehicles.

In the past, leases were primarily a tool used by luxury automakers including BMW AG and Daimler AG, which could rely on them for as much as 70 percent of sales, Keller said.

“The difference this time, versus the last time we had a leasing bulge, is that leasing today doesn’t just apply to luxury cars,” she said. “It’s become a mainstay in mass-market cars and even pickup trucks.”

Ford Motor Credit is now starting to cut back on leasing, relying on it for 18 percent of retail sales in the third quarter, down from 26 percent in the first quarter. The company declined to comment on the impact of weaker used-car values on its business beyond statements made during a Nov. webcast.

Another way automakers could cope is by expanding their offerings of certified pre-owned vehicles — used cars with extended warranties — to try to bolster prices.

The question for auto companies is whether pulling those levers will offset any losses from overlooking the true cost of using hefty incentives and discounted leases to boost new-vehicle sales.

“That’s just the game they play,” Keller said. “It’s deferring the loss, but those losses are now coming home to roost.”