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SunMedia

Justin Trudeau has accomplishments: He legalized cannabis, he has brought some tax relief to the middle class, he has spent billions on infrastructure, he has opened a dialogue with Indigenous Peoples, he has saved NAFTA. Unemployment is the lowest in a generation.

But if we have learned anything from the rise of Trump and the threat of Brexit, anything can happen in politics today under the leadership of virtually anyone.

In a climate of discontent and volatility, fuelled by the hysteria of social media, campaigns are more unpredictable than ever. If the opposition makes a disingenuous but effective case against the carbon tax or liberal immigration, if it ignites a populist revolt over income inequity, anything is possible.

After all, if Ontario could elect the buffoonish Doug Ford, why can’t Canada elect the dull Andrew Scheer? A minority Liberal government is likely this autumn, supported by the New Democrats into next year.

After all, if Ontario could elect the buffoonish Doug Ford, why can’t Canada elect the dull Andrew Scheer?

Trudeau’s chances of political survival in 2019 are only slightly greater than Donald Trump’s. A year from now, he will be on his way out, one way or another.

The big question: Will Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s findings wound Trump so deeply that he is forced quickly from office, by resignation or removal by Congress? Or, will it simply make Trump unelectable in 2020?

When the report is out, the Democrats in the House of Representatives will face a pivotal decision. There is already a strong case to impeach Trump now – see David Leonhardt’s damning J’Accuse in the New York Times on Sunday – which many liberal Democrats already embrace.