Brother of late Toronto mayor is favourite to become next provincial leader in Ontario, sparking debate as to whether divisive politics that rattled US have headed north

He is a businessman turned anti-establishment politician who stunned observers by rising to the top of his party. He often shuns expertise and peppers interviews and speeches with boasts and falsehoods. And despite being the son of a wealthy entrepreneur, he rails against elites, who – in his words – “look down on the common folk, drinking champagne with their pinkies in the air”.

In the weeks since Doug Ford was elected to lead Ontario’s conservatives, comparisons to Trump have been unavoidable, sparking wide debate as to whether the divisive wedge politics that have rattled the US – and other countries around the world – have now landed in Canada.

Ontario is preparing to elect a new provincial leader in June, and polls suggest that the victor is likely to be Ford – the older brother of late Toronto mayor Rob Ford, who became notorious for smoking crack while in office.

It’s a situation that could play out across the country; in Quebec, polls suggest autumn’s election will be won by a leader who has also taken aim at elites, mused about implementing a “values test” for immigrants and promised to temporarily curb immigration. In Alberta, the conservative leader has cited populist anger to explain his vast polling lead as the province readies for an election next year.

In Ontario, Ford’s main opponent has seized on the Trump comparison, hoping to capitalise on the US politician’s dismal popularity in Canada. “Doug Ford sounds like Donald Trump, and that’s because he is like Donald Trump,” Kathleen Wynne, Ontario’s current premier, said recently. “He believes in [an] ugly, vicious brand of politics that traffics in smears and lies. He’ll say anything about anyone at any time.”

But the accuracy of the comparison has divided political scientists in the province. “What Doug Ford and Donald Trump share is this kind of crass, populist politics,” said Emmett Macfarlane of the University of Waterloo.

He pointed to statements made in 2014, when Ford, then a city councillor in Toronto, described a home for developmentally disabled youth as a “nightmare” that had “ruined the community”.

When asked later about the comments, he added: “My heart goes out to kids with autism. But no one told me they’d be leaving the house.” The comments exemplify the divisive, “ugly rhetoric” that Ford employs, said Macfarlane.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Doug Ford attends a candlelight vigil at a memorial for victims of the Toronto van attack on 24 April. Photograph: Carlo Allegri/Reuters

When it comes to immigration, there is a glaring difference between the two. “Doug Ford is not explicitly racist or explicitly xenophobic,” said Macfarlane.

Some explain this difference by pointing to the fact that 22% of the country’s citizens are immigrants – meaning Trump-style nativism would probably amount to political suicide – while others cite Ford’s deep roots in Toronto, one of the world’s most multicultural cities.

During a failed 2014 bid to become mayor of Toronto, Ford drummed up strong support among some of the city’s most diverse neighbourhoods, suggesting his populist touch resonates with immigrants and racialised minorities who have traditionally self-identified as disenfranchised.

But the possibility that Ford could lead Canada’s second-largest government suggests the country is not immune to the wave of rightwing populism that has swept much of the western world in recent years, said Macfarlane.

Ford’s rhetoric has seemingly found an audience in a province where – amid rising inequality, stagnating incomes and economic uncertainty – many are frustrated and clamouring for change after 15 years of being governed by the provincial Liberal party, he said. “People might be willing to swallow a little bit of ugliness in exchange for a politician who’s promising to pay them more heed.”

After Trump was elected in the US, Ford emerged as one of his biggest cheerleaders north of the border. But in recent weeks he’s brushed off any link to the American president. “I don’t give two hoots about Donald Trump,” he recently told an Ontario radio station, listing off promises from a platform that includes cutting taxes, smaller government and doing away with carbon pricing. “I care about the people of Ontario.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Doug Ford with his brother Rob Ford, left, the late Toronto mayor who was notorious for smoking crack while in office, in November 2013. Photograph: Chris Young/AP

He’s often also compared to his brother, Rob, who died of cancer in 2016. Doug, Macfarlane said, “has always, I think, been regarded as generally more together of a person, much more articulate and probably more intelligent than his brother”.

In 2013, Ford also faced allegations relating to drugs, with the Globe and Mail reporting that he sold hashish for several years in the 1980s. He has denied the claims.

According to Michael McGregor at Toronto’s Ryerson University, what’s at play is not a populist upswell but rather a perfect storm. Ford won the Progressive Conservative leadership race on points, despite losing the popular vote. The race had been hastily called after the former leader, Patrick Brown, was accused of sexual misconduct.

The conservatives have long dominated polls; approval ratings for Ontario’s premier, Kathleen Wynne, tumbled to the lowest in Canada as her party scrambled to address issues ranging from soaring electricity prices to a conviction related to destroying documents. Last week her government was called out by the province’s auditor general for dramatically understating this year’s budget deficit and future shortfalls.

“So you have the unpopular premier, you’ve got this weird electoral system that propels Ford to victory. You’ve got Patrick Brown getting caught up in the #MeToo movement,” said McGregor. “This is not a groundswell, grassroots movement towards populism. I just think it’s a confluence of strange factors.”

Connecting Ford to Trump is a “false comparison”, said Kathy Brock at Queen’s University. Instead she pointed to the digital revolution – and the jarring pace of change it has unleashed – to explain the changes shaking up Canada’s political landscape.

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“I compare the period that we’re in to the period of the turn of the previous century, so around the 1890s to the 1920s,” she said. “And in that period you saw a major economic revolution, the industrial revolution. It’s a changing of everyone’s principles, of family structure, of social structures, where you don’t have the same powerful influence on society by key institutions.”

She was quick to caution those calling the Ontario election before it’s over, noting that Ford comes with baggage unlike any other politician in the world: the legacy of defending his brother’s turbulent tenure as mayor of Toronto.

At the time, Ford became known as his brother’s most aggressive defender, lashing out at Toronto police and journalists who questioned Rob Ford’s actions. Years later many still question Ford for doing so, said Brock. “And they say to me, does he have good judgment? Yes, you have to stand by your family member but you don’t defend their actions,” she said. “And that’s the distinction I’m hearing. So I think he’s going to have to overcome that.”