Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes expected in many pastoral and agropastoral areas

Key Messages

Drought conditions in the 2018/19 Deyr season have led to an increase in the total food insecure population since October. However, the impact of humanitarian food assistance resulted in an 11 percent decline in the population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) compared to the post-Gu. In the presence of food assistance, most northern pastoral livelihood zones and nearly half of IDP settlements are currently Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), while Guban Pastoral is in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone and most remaining IDP settlements.

National Deyr cereal production was 25 percent below average, but production shortfalls in low potential agropastoral areas ranged from 60 percent below average to failed. Poor households are expected to deplete their food stocks by March or earlier. In northern and central pastoral areas, declining livestock body conditions, limited livestock saleability, and rising food prices are expected to constrain household food access. Needs will be highest in April and May, at the peak of the pastoral lean season and start of the agricultural lean season.

Due to funding shortfalls that may prevent full implementation of planned food assistance, deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected in many pastoral and agropastoral areas through May. In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, In other areas, seasonal improvements driven by anticipated average Gu rainfall are likely to restore Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from June onward.