Falling TTC ridership is on track to cause a budget shortfall of $30 million this year.

And the cash-strapped city is likely to be on the hook to make up the lost fares, with cutbacks that were already imposed on the TTC’s 2016 operating budget leaving little wiggle room, officials say.

It’s the third continuous year ridership numbers have fallen behind TTC targets.

With ridership four million rides below target through the first two months of the year, year-end totals are now expected to be behind by 13 million rides, which would mean a deficit of about $30 million, says a report to the board. If the trend continues unabated, ridership would be 23 million below target.

“These results will have a significant negative impact on the TTC operating budget,” the report says. “In recognition of this, management has undertaken various actions and is considering further actions in an effort to mitigate the negative budget impact.”

That new year-end projection of 540 million rides would also see ridership totals barely increase over last year’s 538 million rides.

The TTC warned 2015 ridership was slipping last October as projections decreased from 545 million riders to 539 million. Actual riders totalled 538 million.

At the time, deputy CEO Chris Upfold blamed the system being over capacity.

“We’re full and our customers know that,” he told the Star then.

In 2014, only 535 million rides were counted when 540 million were expected.

TTC spokesperson Brad Ross said Wednesday the numbers outlined in the new report won’t immediately impact daily service. But on the long-term ramifications, Ross said he couldn’t speculate.

“If the TTC budget becomes unbalanced and we go into deficit then the city would be required to help us out,” he said.

To try to prevent a significant deficit, TTC management is proposing several ways to slow costs and increase riders, including freezing planned service improvements on some routes, for example, by not adding any additional buses during busy hours.

Ross wouldn’t elaborate on which routes could be affected.

The report blamed slowing employment growth, “sluggish” Metropass sales thanks to recent fare increases, and riders being slow to flock buses, streetcars and subways even after recent service improvements.

Less clear is the possible impact of low gasoline prices and “ride-sharing” services such as Uber, which the report claims is “difficult to quantify,” while claiming both factors have caused a decline in ridership across the GTA.

A new study from the American Public Transportation Association study would seem to counter that, saying those who use apps like Uber are more likely to use public transit and that the two different types of travel modes complement one another.

TTC Chair Councillor Josh Colle said he’s glad the board is being proactively updated now, rather than just being saddled with the consequences later this year.

“It’s still quite early so I’m confident (ridership will improve), but it could put us in a position of having to make some decisions,” he said.

There is $15 million in a TTC stabilization reserve which could help cover a deficit.

Councillor Joe Mihevc, who sits on the board, has also raised concerns based on his anecdotal streetcar-riding experiences that the recent implementation of all-door boarding has caused “a lot” of lost revenue from those not paying their fares.

The TTC ridership report speaks to that concern, saying proof-of-payment “has not resulted in a surge of fare evasion.”

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Inspection rates at 4 to 5 per cent are keeping evasion rates in the range of 2 per cent, which the report says in an industry standard.

Ross also said some recent initiatives will help with year-end numbers by adding capacity to attract new riders, including the newly proposed 514 Cherry streetcar which adds service on Cherry St. south of King St. and increases capacity along the already busy King St. route to Dufferin St. That plan would see the next fleet of new streetcars on that route by mid-September of this year, delaying plans to see new streetcars on the 511 Bathurst route by three months.

The TTC board is also being asked to approve that new streetcar route, which does not impact the operating budget.