Our Politics newsletter is now daily. Join thousands of others and get the latest Scottish politics news sent straight to your inbox. Subscribe Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice Invalid Email

It’s the first big row of IndyRef2 – before campaigning has even begun.

Politicians have argued bitterly over whether an independent Scotland can stand on its two feet economically.

Official ­Government ­Expenditure and ­Revenue Scotland (GERS) stats suggest there is a huge black hole, with the country ­spending ­£15billion more than it raises in tax.

Some ­independence ­campaigners are now ­disputing the figures, claiming they are fatally flawed.

Then, last week, the respected Fraser of Allander Institute insisted they were reliable and robust.

The Sunday Mail took the key arguments to five respected economists from across the world.

The five, who have no axe to grind in the ­independence debate, give their verdict on an independent Scotland’s economic outlook in a post-Brexit world.

Adam Posen, President of Washington's Peterson Institute of International Economics and former member of the Bank of England's interest rate-setting committee - "Not as bad as Greece but years of painful austerity"

Scotland is too small and its demographics too bad for it to have a smooth ride on its own.

There are small ­countries ranging from Malta to ­Luxembourg that manage in the EU but occasionally they have their interests ignored.

Unless Theresa May’s Government actively punish Scotland, and I would hope they don’t given all the whining about it not being punished by the EU, Scotland would be better off staying in the UK.

Could Scotland make it on its own? Sure. But it would require a combination of both budget cuts and tax increases.

(Image: 2013 Bloomberg)

It would require some aggressive measures by the Scottish Government to attract investment from abroad.

It wouldn’t be easy but ­Scotland could cope. It wouldn’t be like Greece but it would require many years of austerity and change to make it work.

The better play would be for Scotland to attempt to regain the influence at Westminster it has traditionally had.

A United Kingdom with ­Scotland exerting influence on the economic and political priorities is ultimately going to be a better shot than Scotland being in the EU on its own.

Even though I am a staunch Remainer, I believe that, on its own, Scotland would have more problems.

Richard S Grossman, Professor of economics at Wesleyan University in Connecticut, and a visiting scholar at Harvard - "I get the anger but where's the cash coming from?"

If I was Scottish, I’d have been incensed at what ­happened with Brexit. ­Emotionally, I would be more supportive of ­Scotland leaving the Union.

But as an economist, I wonder what kind of country it would be. Would it have the open-handed social policies the Yes side talk about and how would they pay for it?

The hard-headed economist in me says it still may not be a great deal for Scotland to become independent.

Oil prices have not returned to where they once were. There are issues over what UK assets would belong to Scotland and what share of UK Government debt would belong to Scotland. It would be a long and protracted negotiation.

(Image: Collect picture)

My sense is it would be very ­difficult to maintain Scotland’s current level of economic ­prosperity. I read extensively the Yes and No sides’ cases in the 2014 ­referendum and the Yes one was completely unrealistic.

I kept wondering where all the money was going to come from. I don’t think money will come from Brussels if Scotland joins the EU.

I understand where the desire for a referendum and ­independence comes from. In 2014, the major party leaders from the No side did a horrible job. They should have made a more positive case for the Union.

I can understand the rage at Brexit but over the next couple of years Nicola Sturgeon has to put forward a plan of how she is going to make an independent Scotland economically viable.

Scotland has a lot going for it – technology, oil, a highly educated population and so on – but she still has to have a plan about issues like currency and cross-border trade.

What would the accession terms from the EU be like?

The path of “Scotland will leave the UK and we will try to sort out a deal with the EU” is similar to the Brexit campaign.

Frankly, when politicians say “trust me, I’ll sort it out” – that’s when we have to worry the most.

Oliver Hart, Nobel Prize-winning economist Harvard professor of economics - "Trade barriers would be a serious problem"

The crucial ­question is will Scotland be able to join the EU if it becomes ­independent?

If the answer is yes, how will this turn out for Scotland given that a key ­trading partner, and its direct ­neighbour, England, will not be in the EU and so there may be significant ­tariffs or trade ­barriers between the two, depending, of course, on what the UK Government are able to negotiate with Brussels?

(Image: Internet Unknown)

It is very unclear to me that ­Scotland would be better off financially, given the lower price of oil and the difficulties of trading with England.

Richard Murphy, Professor of international political economy at City University, London - "Ditch the pound to properly take back control"

I can’t see that Scotland could possibly use the pound. You simply aren’t independent if you use another country’s currency.

Scotland would have to take the risk of moving to another ­currency.

There may be some ­currency shocks while the world works out how much the Scottish ­currency is worth but I’m sure they wouldn’t be more than we’ve already suffered in the last year from Brexit.

Scotland could also attract new business in ways it can’t just now.

(Image: Handout)

It would be attractive to a ­financial services industry looking for an English-speaking base which is not known to be a tax haven and which has a long tradition of ­stable, secure management.

That is still true of Scotland with regard to insurance and I think it could attract ­serious new funding.

Scotland could ­generate its own clear industrial strategy, for example with regard to energy.

Energy is under-exploited in ­Scotland and I doubt it is being given the full credit for the potential to generate green energy.

I do see it is possible for Scotland to stand as an independent state.

I don’t pretend it would be without difficulty but, bluntly, I don’t see any country in Europe that won’t be ­facing difficulties soon.

Simon Wren-Lewis, Professor of economy policy at Oxford University's Blavatnik School of Government - "Short-term pain for longer-term gain"

I was very critical of the SNP campaign last time for indulging in short-term ­economic deception.

I think more honesty might help increase their ­credibility as a potential ­government of an independent country.

In the short term, Scots would be worse off, for sure, just because the rest of the UK is currently transferring money to Scotland.

(Image: UGC)

Exactly the same was true in 2014 but now the short-term outlook will be worse for two reasons – a lower oil price and a hit to firms trading with the rest of the UK if there are tariffs imposed between Scotland and the UK.

The big qualitative difference between now and 2014 is that then a better long-term future for an independent Scotland was largely wishful thinking by the SNP.

Now it would be much more credible because Scotland would have much better access to the huge EU market than the rest of the UK.

So it’s short-term pain for longer-term gain.