Nitish Kumar Nitish Kumar

Rabri Devi can step back and relax. With Lalu Prasad likely to be released on Monday after Supreme Court granted him a bail on Friday-- seventy-four days after the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief was convicted on September 30 in a fodder scam case-it is time for RJD's first lady to settle down in the shadows of her famous husband.Lalu Prasad had approached the apex court after Jharkhand High Court rejected his bail application on October 31. The apex court order has come as a huge reprieve for Yadav, who is also accused in four more cases of illegal withdrawal of funds from government treasuries.Though Lalu Prasad, a former Member of Parliament from Saran in Bihar, stands banned from electoral politics and cannot contest the Lok Sabha elections because of his disqualification from the Lok Sabha owing to his conviction; he still has a huge role to play in Bihar.The political impact of Lalu Prasad's release was evident when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Friday refused laddus (sweet) that RJD member offered him in Bihar's Legislative Council in the aftermath of Supreme Court's bail order. The beleaguered chief minister betrayed a sense of silent acknowledgement about RJD chief posing him the biggest electoral challenge in the run up to Lok Sabha polls.The bail order has also come at a huge relief to Lalu at a time when his two political enemies-Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi-were trying hard to wean away his traditional support base of Yadavs and Muslims. The social combination of the Muslim-Yadav has enabled Lalu Prasad to rule the state for 15 years. Together, they contribute about 30 per cent of the electorate in the state. Now, Lalu is likely to strengthen his foothold in Bihar's electoral arena.Lalu Prasad looked set for reviving his party, which was reduced to 22-seat in the 243-member Bihar Assembly after the 2010 state election, after his massive victory in Maharajganj bypoll in June this year. Another political development in June; the divorce of BJP-JDU over Narendra Modi's elevation in the saffron party, is also likely to benefit Lalu Prasad. With his enemies divided, his vote bank intact, and Bihar set for a multi-cornered contest, it was clearly advantage Lalu. His conviction leading to his absence for over two months, however, allowed his rivals, the BJP and JD-U to win over his vote bank.A section of RJD strategists, however, think otherwise. "Lalu's two months stay in a Jharkhand jail was perhaps the best thing that could happen to RJD. We looked poised for a comeback after massive victory in Maharajganj Lok Sabha by poll and subsequent JDU-BJP break-up. Now, we our support base has further swelled up because of the added advantage of sympathy votes that Lalu will garner," says a senior RJD leader.Though party leaders privately concede that Nitish has indeed won support of some sections of Muslims following his breakup with BJP on the issue of Narendra Modi, but they believe that the minorities will still vote for Lalu's candidate simply because of RJD's greater potential to defeat the BJP."The Muslims always vote for the candidate who has greater potential to defeat the BJP. There were some deviations in 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 state Assembly polls when some Muslims voted for NDA because of Nitish Kumar. Now with Narendra Modi at BJP's forefront, the Muslims will return to the basics and vote for RJD because Bihar single largest caste group; the Yadavs are already backing Lalu like never before following his conviction. So while some Muslims may like Nitish Kumar; but they won't vote for him just because we are better placed to defeat Narendra Modi's candidates in the Lok Sabha," says a top RJD leader.