Welcome to Week 14 (JULY 3 through JULY 9, 2017). Happy Independence Day! Since it is a 4th of July Holiday weekend, you may be having your party today, as my groundhog and I are, I’ll keep it short and sweet this week. We still have to set our pitching for week 14 but we may be on the fly or on the juice today, so no time to waste. I’ll give you four recommended spot starts and toss in a bonus barely owned spotter for your pleasure. I’ll move the injury news and the explanation of the criterion I use to the bottom of the piece so you’ll get right to the juice, then back to the juice.

First, a quick look at Yanks prospect Dustin Fowler’s season (possibly career) ending injury from Friday. No, he is not a pitcher but he is a Yankee, as am I a fan of the Yanks. One other big news item is the 80 game PED suspension of Astros SP David Paulino. Maybe we’ll see you in 2018. Aaron Sanchez may be back next week (7/7) and he may bump Joe Biagini from the rotation. That would be a boost to someone’s rotation but remove a fairly reliable spotter from the pool. Biagini belongs in a rotation, not a bullpen.

As I mentioned last week, even though people in baseball tend to think of the All-Star Game as the halfway point of the season, the first half actually ends today, Sunday, July 2nd. Statistically, you know what your players are on pace for, barring a 2nd half streak one way or the other. It is a great time to take stock of your team and figure out what you need for the stretch run which will be here before you know it, or if you are a buyer or seller. Sit down, crack open a cold one, and look hard at those teams of yours. Good luck and good trading either way. See, now there is something to do the morning after your party other than cleaning up if you don’t have to go to work the next day. My groundhog got himself tipsy and brought home a Ms. Groundhog for the evening. This is just what I need, and it can’t end well for me. Happy 4th!

WEEK FOURTEEN: JULY 3 through JULY 9: Ready for some fireworks? Hopefully not from your starting pitchers, or your groundhogs! Let’s go. Short and Sweet.

Spotters from the <50% owned crowd:

***TWO START PITCHER***Hyun-Jin, Ryu LHSP, LAD(10% owned ESPN, 45% Owned in Fantrax) vs ARI TUE 7/4 & @ vs. KC, SUN 7/9: Ryu was supposed to be a two-start pitcher in week 13, but he was pushed back because of an extra off day and an injury to his foot that required X-Rays. It is not expected to cause him to miss a start. The more he starts, the deeper into games he is going and the more K’s and less BB’s he is generating. His first start this week is against the Diamondbacks at home in LA. That won’t be easy but better that it is in LA and not the desert. His Sunday start is against the lowly KC Royals who have actually been hitting lately and should not be taken for granted at this point. I picked up Ryu in a couple of leagues last week and may not drop him back to the pool anytime soon.

Zack Wheeler, RHSP, NYM (59% owned Fantrax) @ STL, 40% of the leagues in Fantrax have not realized that Wheeler is back and dealing. A Met not named deGrom has finally claimed a chunk of the Met’s mound. Not many people realize how good Wheeler was pitching in late May and early June before he got hurt. Since he has been back he went 3.2 innings giving up 2 hits and 2 walks vs 4 K’s but no earned runs. He’ll have to get the innings and pitch count up quite a bit, and soon to compete in the MLB but I’m sure he will. Next week he gets the Cardinals in St. Louis where they have a .235 wOBA vs righties at home.

James Shields, RHSP, CHW, (% owned Fantrax), @ OAK, TUE, 7/3: I benched Shields in most of my leagues because he was facing the Yankees. He made me look foolish by going 6.1 IP with 5 H, 2 ER, no HR, 2 K’s and 3 BB’s. I’ve owned him almost all season and now he has a start in Oakland where he has a lifetime 3.26 ERA. Sometimes one really bad year can make people think an “adjusting” veteran is

washed up. Not only is he considered no longer “rosterable” but the spot starting community is still too stung by their prior investment to ever consider spotting him. Enter James Shields, and myself. I have him on every team I was smart enough not to have dropped him for some pitcher I had to have. My bold 2nd half prediction is that James Shields IS fantasy relevant, and WILL help someone win their league. The A’s are 14th in wOBA vs RHSP at home, in Oakland, with a .333 mark, but they are 3rd in HR against RHSP at home so Shields needs to keep it on the ground. I think he will.

Patric Corbin, LHSP, AZ (15.5% owned in ESPN, 51% owned Fantrax) @ LAD, WED 7/5: I’ve owned Corbin all season on and off. The man has talent. No, he has not yet put it all together but in the right match-up, it is like finding an ace on the wire. He has finally stopped walking people and then giving up the untimely HRs. In his past four starts he is a third of an inning shy of 4 QS, with a 2-1 record, eight runs, and in 24.1 innings has logged 24 K’s, and given up 6 BB’s with only 1 HR. This week he faces the Dodgers in LA where he has a lifetime 3.21 ERA. The Dodgers are 8th in the majors with a .342 wOBA @ home vs lefties, so this is no walk in the ballpark, though they are 15th in BA with a .251 average vs the same combination. This means that Corbin needs to keep limiting the walks and keeping it on the ground. If he does he should be more universally owned.

Tyson Ross, RHSP, TEX (6.1% owned ESPN, 55% owned Fantrax) vs LAA SAT 7/8: Tyson Ross has been on the DL in every league for two years now. Now that he is active he is owned in 55% of Fantrax Leagues and 14.5% in ESPN. I’ve learned not to question some things, especially if I can take advantage of them. Tyson Ross is now on all my teams just like that. He gets the LA Angels next week at home on Saturday. If Trout is back it will make the Angels tougher, but with him out and Albert and Calhoun slumping badly this looks like an easy start. He should do well in Texas but his wife misses SD as that is where Tyson proposed to her.

Not for the faint of heart. Pitchers from the abyss:

***TWO START PITCHER***Adalberto Mejia, LHSP, MIN (1.2% owned ESPN & 45% owned Fantrax) Vs LAA, MON, @ vs BAL, SUN 7/9: Mejia has been up and down this season, but has found a way to be pretty effective, especially over his last three starts where he allowed just two earned runs in his 15 1/3 innings. In his first start, Mejia takes on the Angels, one of the worst lineups in the league against lefties. They have just a .293 wOBA against southpaws, which is 28th in the league. If Trout is back it will make the Angels tougher, but with him out and Albert and Calhoun slumping badly this looks like an easy start. Mejia then gets the Orioles, who are 17th with a .312 wOBA. Mejia will be at home for both starts, avoiding Camden Yards. 55% of Fantrax Leagues have Mejis sitting on the wire and most ESPN leagues do as well. Jump on for this week anyway.

DFS PLAYERS: You may want to re-think starting him: I was one for two last week rightly calling to sit the Shark, however, my other sit, Jacob deGrom went on to pitch a gem.

Tyler Matz, RHSP @ WAS THU, 7/6:

DFS PLAYERS: Match-ups of the week:

Corey Kluber, RHSP, CLE vs SD, WEDS, 7-5:

Max Scherzer, RHSP, WAS vs ATL, THU 7/6:

What to expect in 2017: (If you read this part in last week’s article, skip down to week 12.)

Criteria Used: Platoon splits, LH/RH, Day/Night, Month, Half, stadium splits, team batting against splits, metrics like GB/FB rate, K & BB rates, Babip, wOBA, FIP, Trends, etc. Sources are Fan Graphs, Baseball Reference, Fantrax, ESPN and more.

Pitchers from the under 50% ownership group – I’ll list three or four pitchers, less than 50% owned who I believe are primed for a good start the following week, or better yet two good starts. I’ll list two or so pitchers that are less than 20% owned and look like a good choice based on the above criterion.

DFS Suggestions – I’ll pick out a few aces to avoid in DFS and a couple who should be in your lineup, especially if I see a great contrarian start.

My crusade for 2017/2018: Pitchers and other players seem to be getting injured so fast that most leagues don’t have enough DL spots to accommodate them all. Roster limits force tough decisions which are a good thing for competitive league balance and showcasing owner skills, but this season’s overcrowded Disabled-Lists have proven to test traditional capacity at times. I think it is a combination of pitchers being more injury prone, but also the abundant use of the new in 2016 7 day concussion DL, and the new in 2017 10 day DL rule that has MLB teams easing their own roster limitations at the expense of our fantasy limitations and resources. In light of the 7 day & 10 day DL rules, I recommend any owners who have 2 to 4 DL spots to petition the League Manager to increase the number of DL spots to whatever is appropriate for that format. Most good LM’s won’t change rules or settings once the season starts, and rightly so, but at least it will be in place for 2018. Don’t feel victimized by the new rule. Adjust to it.

Thanks for reading and good luck in week thirteen, especially with your pitching. If you have a question about these or any other SP match-ups next week don’t hesitate to leave a message in the comments, write me, or check out my “Pick Your Spots” thread every Sunday on the /r/fantasybaseball Sub-Reddit where I’ll talk starting pitching all day.

joseph.iannone021@gmail.com @JoeIannone2 Twitter

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