With Colts nearing NFL draft, free agency, stakes haven't been this high for an offseason since 2012

INDIANAPOLIS – The coach was new. The draft pick was high. The schemes and philosophies had yet to be implemented.

That was the state of the Indianapolis Colts about this time back in 2012. It was an offseason that represented a seismic shift in the organization, with top-to-bottom changes that would pay huge dividends in some cases and have serious consequences in others.

When there are that many proverbial balls in the air, you have to get things right.

And that’s a lesson the Colts can apply to 2018. As the franchise prepares for next week’s NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium, the stakes are high. The Combine is the next milepost in what is shaping up to be the biggest offseason for the Colts since that period in 2012 that landed them quarterback Andrew Luck, saw Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson hired as coach and general manager and featured a massive roster shakeup.

Already, the 2018 offseason has been an adventure. Pagano was fired at the end of the season, followed by a coaching search that spilled into February – and lingered an additional week after Josh McDaniels’ stunning change of heart. Frank Reich took the helm less than two weeks ago and hit the ground running.

With a stash of valuable draft picks, including the third overall selection, a huge pile of cash with which to sign free agents and with new offensive and defensive schemes being installed (which also call for new players), the 2018 offseason will be pivotal in many ways.

Here’s a look at what this offseason holds for the Colts:

>> The draft

The Colts have the third overall choice in the draft, and will be among the teams drawing significant interest during the Combine. They have seven total picks, each presenting an opportunity to strike gold for General Manager Chris Ballard and Reich.

The Colts are particularly interesting in this draft because they could be open to a trade scenario. They hold a prime spot in a quarterback-rich draft, and that might prove enticing to other teams with greater needs at the position. Ballard and Reich have both emphasized the need to focus mostly on the draft as a team-building tool. A trade-down would allow the Colts to compile additional picks, which is always a goal of Ballard’s.

“You’ve got to draft your players,” he said during a recent town hall with season-ticket holders. “You’ve got to stack drafts on top of drafts. That’s how you get players who are loyal to the organization.”

This is where 2012 becomes very relevant. Players drafted that year -- such as Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and Vick Ballard -- became key parts of a nucleus that spearheaded a turnaround from 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 in 2012.

As Reich said during his introductory news conference, “What I’ve learned and experienced is it’s an incredible difference what one or two players can make (with) the right culture.”

If the Colts keep that No. 3 pick, they could well find one of those difference-making players. North Carolina State pass rusher Bradley Chubb or Penn State running back Saquon Barkely would both fill immediate needs. The Colts are a team with a handful of good players, but few dynamic ones

>> Free agency

Forecasting what the Colts will do in the free-agent market is a bit of a challenge. They have a massive amount of salary-cap space, more than $70 million. How much of it they will spend is uncertain.

Ballard has been clear he will continue to be judicious in his approach to free agency. He was very selective during his first offseason in 2017, targeting mostly moderately priced free agents.

He could not be more explicit when he said recently, “We won’t pay a mid-tier player (top-tier) money.”

That does not rule out the Colts seeking some of the bigger names on the market, the likes of Carolina offensive lineman Andrew Norwell or Detroit pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah. But it does mean they won’t overpay to land them.

Colts leadership is hyperaware of the team's missteps of recent years, when the front office doubled down on free agency to the organization’s peril. It’s why Ballard had to do an overdue housecleaning of aging players when he was hired last year. The goal is to build for long-term, sustainable success.

And the Colts’ approach to free agency is likely to reflect that.

>> A new look on the field

The Colts will look completely different in 2018. The Reich offensive system is yet to be unveiled, but what he has described is quite different from what the Colts used under former offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski. The Colts are expected to use a more up-tempo attack that sounds, in theory, as if it’ll be a more cutting-edge scheme. Less clear is what kind of players Reich will favor, but rest assured his preferences will be reflected in the Colts’ personnel decisions this offseason.

This already figured to be an offseason of change on the offensive side, with decisions to be made at wide receiver and additions likely at running back. But Reich’s influence adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

The coming defensive changes will be extensive, too. The Colts have hired Matt Eberflus as defensive coordinator, and he plans to run a speed-based, 4-3 defensive system similar to the one used by his former team, the Dallas Cowboys.

“The major shift is that we want athletic, speed players that possess quickness, instincts and striking ability,” Eberflus said. “And you should see that on the field. So, you’re going to see more speed, more quickness, more athletic ability. And those are the guys that we’re going to want to acquire through the draft, through free agency.”

That indicates some personnel changes are certain on defense, too. The Colts have been discussing those changes since Eberflus’ hiring earlier this month.

It’s a critical offseason, just like 2012 was. The offensive core the Colts drafted that year drove temporary success. But neglecting the defense and the offensive line got them into trouble down the road.

Similarly, years from now – whether the Colts are hoisting a Lombardi Trophy or rebuilding again – we’ll be able to look back at the decisions they made in 2018 as a major reason for their success or failure.

More Colts news:

23 seasons strong: Why Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri came back

Why Andrew Luck is relieved about his shoulder