European diplomats and US analysts predict that Trump would continue to waive sanctions on Iran, but could also take the US closer to non-compliance

The fate of the nuclear deal with Iran will hang in the balance once more on Friday, when Donald Trump must decide whether to continue sanctions relief for Tehran or violate the 2015 agreement.



The secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, told reporters that Trump, who has repeatedly described it as the “worst deal ever”, would make a final decision on Thursday, after an afternoon meeting with his top foreign policy and national security officials, who all favour preserving the agreement.

Q&A Why is Trump hostile to Iran? Show Hide The genesis of Trump’s particular antipathy to Iran is hard to pin down. Before entering office he had been sceptical of Iran’s regional rival, Saudi Arabia. But during the 2016 election campaign all his closest foreign policy advisors, such as Michael Flynn, shared a worldview that portrays Iran as an uniquely malign actor in the Middle East and beyond. After the election, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were successful in capturing the ear of Trump and his son-in-law and top adviser Jared Kushner.

European diplomats and US analysts predicted that Trump would continue to waive the sanctions that were suspended as part of the deal, while imposing new sanctions on other grounds, like human rights or missile development.

“There is more or less consensus that the president is going to once again decertify and continue to waive sanctions but at the same time slap new sanctions on Iran on non-nuclear issues,” said Ali Vaez, an Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group.



Vaez added: “The proponents of a more logical path have good arguments to make to the president but his decision is unpredictable. I think it depends on what he sees on Fox News that morning.”

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Even if he does continue to waive sanctions, Trump could also say or do something on Friday that would take the US closer to noncompliance.

The restoration of US sanctions would trigger a crisis for US relations with European allies who all support the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Programme of Action (JCPOA). If it led to the JCPOA’s collapse, Iran could well break free of the constraints it imposed on its nuclear programme, bringing the Middle East nearer the brink of a new conflict.

At Thursday’s Oval Office meeting, the president was due to meet Tillerson, the defence secretary, James Mattis, and national security adviser, HR McMaster, who has been scrambling in recent days to coax Republicans and Democrats to work on legislation concerning US adherence to the JCPOA.

In October, Trump refused to continue to certify the JCPOA, on the grounds it was too favourable to Iran, and called on Congress and European allies to “fix it”, making it tougher.

“In the event we are not able to reach a solution working with Congress and our allies, then the agreement will be terminated. It is under continuous review, and our participation can be canceled by me, as president, at any time,” Trump said then.

Since then, Republican leaders have been unable to agree among themselves on how to increase pressure on Iran, while Democrats say they have only been consulted in the past few days.

“There are no real negotiations going on with the Democrats, but everyone has an incentive to tell the president there is enough progress to justify continuing to waive sanctions,” one source familiar with the talks said.

Almost all the US sanctions waived under the JCPOA are “secondary”, meaning they would target any foreign company that did business with proscribed Iranian institutions or firms. Their reimposition would trigger a crisis in transatlantic relations.

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“The threat of sanctions is a very real one – who wants to invest in Iran if you don’t know what it going to happen in the future?” said Angela Kane, a German diplomat who was the UN high representative for disarmament.

“If there were to be a withdrawal from the deal by the US side then you would have the very uncomfortable situation for the Europeans, who would basically side with Russia and China … That would be a very difficult thing to stomach for the Europeans.”

Simon Gass, who was the lead UK negotiator in the deal, said the preservation of the JCPOA was critical for stability in the Middle East and therefore for European security.

“We place particular importance on sustainment of this agreement. We do not do so in a semi-apologetic way. We do this because we regard this as a very strong, very successful agreement,” said Gass, a retired British diplomat who was in Washington on Thursday to lobby to protect the JCPOA. If the US was to walk away, he added, “my guess is that the people who would be happiest would be in the Kremlin”.