Carly Fiorina nailed it in the second Republican debate.

That's the assessment of GOP insiders in a special edition of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly survey of the top operatives, activists and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire. They offered their reactions immediately after watching Wednesday’s 8 p.m. prime-time debate in Simi Valley, California.


Sixty percent of Republican insiders called Fiorina the biggest winner of the evening — no one else was even close — pointing to everything from how she handled Donald Trump to her grasp of policy issues.

A New Hampshire Republican cheered, "The nation finally got a chance to see what we in New Hampshire have been intrigued and impressed by: a political outsider with some real policy chops and the demeanor to be considered a serious contender."

"She was new onstage with most to gain and she delivered for herself. Carly dispatched Trump, moved to substance, was moving while discussing her late daughter, and closed with inspiration," said an Iowa Republican.

Fiorina's performance even captured the attention of some Democratic insiders. "Carly, hands down," added a New Hampshire Democrat, who like all Caucus insiders responded via an online survey. "Fiorina drops the mic. Her closing argument was Jeffersonian. She handled Trump like the junior high schooler he is. Holy shit."

The spotlight was on Fiorina as she headed into the debate. CNN altered the rules to include her on the stage and insiders said she delivered, especially in her tussles with Trump. The confrontations followed a week of skirmishes with the real estate mogul after he made a crack about her physical appearance ("Look at that face!" he jabbed last week).

"I think women all over this country heard very clearly what Mr. Trump said," Fiorina said during the debate, to applause.

That understated but cutting approach was the right way to manage him, insiders said.

"Trump take downs were appropriately icy without being over the top," a New Hampshire Republican said.

"Consistently strong, memorable answers and made Trump seem very small tonight," added another.

Applauded an Iowa Republican, "She caused the fifth and final bankruptcy of Donald Trump. Bankrupt of policy, ideas and stature, he was finally shown to be the fraud con artist of 2016."

The winner of the debate wasn't as clear-cut to Democrats — they were evenly divided between Trump and Fiorina. Those who picked the billionaire developer largely did so because many of the candidates were reacting to him.

“All issues were 'Trump said' this about your position. How do you respond? Trump had, once again, all the oxygen in room,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.

Among Republicans, Jeb Bush was the distant runner-up, with 18 percent of GOP insiders pointing to him as the winner.

Bush, whom Trump has accused of being “low energy,” came out spoiling for a fight — and he got one. He and Trump clashed over everything from Bush's brother's legacy in Iraq to whether Trump would apologize to Bush's wife for making disparaging comments about her Mexican heritage.

"He came across as presidential, knowledgeable, and with some energy and humor," a New Hampshire Republican said.

Added an Iowa Republican, "Jeb led the way with a huge moment of strength, saying 'my brother kept us safe.' With that comment, he united candidates behind him against Trump, who was shut down for the next 40 minutes."

Republicans: Walker and Trump were the biggest losers.



Republicans were divided by geography over who was the biggest loser of the evening. Trump had the worst night, according to 40 percent of New Hampshire Republicans. Walker came in second with 20 percent. But in Iowa, Republicans thought Walker had the worst night — 42 percent said the Wisconsin governor flopped.

"Walker who? Was he even in the debate?" jabbed one Iowa Republican.

"It's hard to believe he was once the frontrunner in this race," agreed another.

Walker desperately needed a strong performance in the Wednesday contest, but insiders said he fell short. When he entered the presidential race in July, POLITICO Caucus insiders overwhelmingly expected him to win the Iowa Caucuses: more than eight in 10 Iowa GOP insiders said at the time that he would win if the caucuses were held then. But since that time, he has plummeted to around 3 percent in the state, and nervous donors and supporters were banking on a solid debate performance to stop the bleeding.

"He seems dull and unintelligent. His money will dry up and he will be out by November 1," predicted a third Iowa Republican.

Added an Iowa Democrat, "Walker needed a game changer and he barely spoke."

New Hampshire Republicans, who haven't seen Walker as much in their state, said Trump had a terrible night.

"Completely blew it," a New Hampshire Republican said. "His most sophomoric performance yet. The format allowed longer, more in depth answers and the opportunity to expose knowledge and personality ... all of which plays against a Trump campaign."

Added another, "Worst night of campaign. After the fireworks early, Trump demonstrated his total lack of familiarity with issues, policy, nuance. The would be Emperor tonight was severely under dressed."

Ben Carson, the soft-spoken retired pediatric neurosurgeon who has pushed into a surprise second-place position in the polls, barely registered with insiders — and 20 percent of New Hamsphire Republicans said he had the worst performance.

"It is becoming clear," a New Hampshire Republican said of Fiorina, "that of the outsider candidates, she is the one who speaks with the most authority, understanding and class."

Lindsey shined. Insiders shrugged.

Lindsey Graham, whose polling average is under 1 percent, nonetheless had a standout performance in the undercard debate, insiders said. More than half of GOP insiders said he most stood out in an early debate that also featured fellow long shots Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal and George Pataki.

Graham, who appeared wooden and gloomy in the first debate, served up a zinger-filled performance this time around, dishing out witty jabs and self-deprecating remarks in a high-energy performance.

"Graham brought his A game — an entertaining combo of wit, humor, knowledge and confidence," an Iowa Republican said. "He's low in the polls, but he's fun to watch."

Added a New Hampshire Republican, "Graham has a rationale for running and a position that he articulates repeatedly and credibly ... and he has a sense of humor."

But, said a number of insiders, it likely won't matter.

"Graham and Jindal both took advantage of the smaller field and excelled. Unfortunately, I think there was really only one ticket from the happy hour debate to primetime, and Carly already got that ticket," a New Hampshire Republican said.

Others acknowledeged that they didn't watch because they didn't see it making a difference.

As one blunt Iowa Republican put it, "Zzzzzzz."

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

