2013 College football countdown | No. 20: Oklahoma State

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

One would think that an opening for Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator would lead to an onrush of high-end résumés from coast to coast. This may very well be the case. Why not? Four of the Cowboys' coordinators since 2004 have gone to FBS head coaching positions, beginning with OSU's top man himself, Mike Gundy.

Gundy was replaced by Larry Fedora, who spent 2005-7 in Stillwater before moving to Southern Mississippi; he's since moved to North Carolina. Gundy stepped back into the coordinator role in 2008 and 2009, sharing those duties with two offensive assistants. Then came Dana Holgorsen (2010), now at West Virginia, followed by Todd Monken (2011-12), now at Southern Mississippi.

So, about the résumés: OSU must have been inundated with letters, texts and calls from every coordinator with a clipboard and a plan. That Gundy eschewed any projected high-profile entreaties in favor of Mike Yurcich, the former coordinator at Shippensburg University in Pennsylvania, speaks to both Gundy's vision for his offense – and, by extension, his program – and the way Gundy and OSU do business.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

But the Cowboys are in transition, and being in transition in this new-look Big 12 – one that might lack a true national title contender but goes deeper than any conference in the country – is not a recipe for success. The offense is going to take some lumps. Lunt will shine at times; at others, the true freshman is going to look like, well, a true freshman. The defense is obviously improved, but are the Cowboys good enough to shut down TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma? Not yet. Again, it's a rebuilding year. Take some solace in the idea that a decade ago, a rebuilding season in Stillwater meant 3-9. Today, rebuilding means an eight-win finish in one of the nation's best conferences.

2012 RECAP

- In a nutshell: A rebuilding season means eight wins and a blowout bowl win against a hapless Big Ten opponent. It also means an overtime loss to the Sooners, two wins against teams then ranked nationally and five losses by a combined 29 points. The best sign from last season wasn't that OSU has officially redefined rebuilding – oh, how times have changed – but the superb play of an offense that battled injuries and attrition yet still finished in the top seven nationally in total, passing and scoring offense. The running game finished only 21st in the FBS – the gall. Meanwhile, OSU's defense struggled with getting off the field against several potent offenses; this was the case in losses to Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor. The end result was a team with more than enough firepower to beat any opponent in the Big 12 but not quite enough consistency to match 2011's success. Still: OSU was rebuilding and went 8-5 in the Big 12.

- High point: Five wins in six tries against Big 12 competition. After losing to Texas on Sept. 29, OSU sandwiched a loss to Kansas State with wins against Kansas, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech.

- Low point: An overtime loss to OU on Nov. 24. The Cowboys led 38-30 heading into the fourth quarter but allowed an 81-yard punt return and a touchdown with four seconds left to force overtime; the Sooners won in the first extra frame.

- Tidbit: December's Heart of Dallas Bowl victory against Purdue gave OSU at 15-8 career record in the postseason. This winning percentage, .652, is good for first in the FBS among teams with at least 20 postseason appearances. USC (.646) led the way heading into last December before losing to Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl. The Trojans are now in third, behind the Cowboys and second-place Mississippi (.647).

- Tidbit (offense edition): OSU is the only program in the FBS to rank among the top 10 nationally in scoring, passing and total offense in each of the last three seasons. During this three-year span, OSU's average of 46.21 points per game ranks second nationally, trailing only Oregon (47.50 points per game). Only Baylor, at 7.06 yards per play, has been more potent than OSU (7.03 per play) on a per-down basis.

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

- 25: K Dan Bailey (Dallas), TE Billy Bajema (Baltimore), WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville), DE Jamie Blatnick (Buffalo), OT Michael Bowie (Seattle), WR Dez Bryant (Dallas), WR Josh Cooper (Cleveland), CB Perrish Cox (San Francisco), OT Corey Hilliard (Detroit), RB Kendall Hunter (San Francisco), OT Charlie Johnson (Minnesota), CB Jacob Lacey (Minnesota), LB Orie Lemon (Kansas City), S Markelle Martin (Tennessee), DT Nigel Nicholas (Tennessee), OT Russell Okung (Seattle), QB Zac Robinson (Cincinnati), DE Ryan Robinson (Oakland), P Quinn Sharp (Cincinnati), DE Antonio Smith (Houston), OG Lane Taylor (Green Bay), QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland), DT Kevin Williams (Minnesota).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

- Yankee centerfielders post-Mickey Mantle

1. Bernie Williams

2. Bobby Murcer

3. Johnny Damon

4. Mickey Rivers

5. Roberto Kelly

COACHING

- Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State '90), 67-35 after eight seasons with the Cowboys. The program has made clear and steady progress during this span, going from 1-7 in Big 12 play in 2005 to 30-12 against league competition during the last five years. This five-season span has included four years with nine or more wins, two years with 11 or more wins and one 12-win season – in 2011, when the Cowboys won the Big 12 and came within one victory of a BCS title game appearance. Oklahoma State has moved so fast that it's wise to take on second and smell the roses: Gundy has created a championship contender.

The Cowboys had been mired in a string of two consecutive seven-win seasons from 2006-7, when they had showed flashes of brilliance but remained unable to beat the top-rated teams on their schedule. That did not completely change in 2008 – OSU did defeat one top-five team – though it was obvious that the Cowboys had made great strides since the 2007 season. Progress continued from 2008-9 before the Cowboys skyrocketed into the national title hunt over the following two seasons.

Gundy was a four-year starting quarterback for the Cowboys (1986-89), and remains one of the most successful (back-to-back 10-win seasons in 1987-88) and productive quarterbacks in team history. Gundy entered the coaching ranks immediately after his graduation, taking on the Oklahoma State receivers coach job and skipping the graduate-assistant apprenticeship that usually accompanies the move into full-time coaching. He remained at his alma mater through 1995, moving up to the quarterbacks coach (1991-93, 1995) and offensive coordinator (1994), before spending one year at Baylor, coaching the quarterbacks, and four more at Maryland (receivers from 1997-98, quarterbacks from 1999-2000). He returned to his alma mater in 2001 as Les Miles' offensive coordinator, a position he held through the 2004 season; he was promoted after Miles left for LSU in early 2005. After experiencing a 37-82-2 record as an assistant from 1990-2000, Gundy has gone 87-52 as both an assistant and head coach since coming back to Stillwater in 2001. Thanks to the way he's rebuilt OSU during the past five years, Gundy has moved into the elite class of coaches in college football.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

- Offense: The beat goes on and on and on, with coordinators replacing coordinators and quarterbacks replacing quarterbacks yet one thing remaining the same: OSU's offense ranks among the nation's best, as it has been since the start of the 2010 season. I don't buy into the idea of a learning curve for this offense as it moves into Yurcich's style, though I do think that Yurcich, like Monken before him, will need to tailor his own offensive predilections to match what Gundy wants to achieve against Big 12 competition. In other words, don't look for any decline in production. The only real question mark on offense is under center, where Gundy continues to audition two contenders, but let's be real: OSU will excel with either option taking starter's snaps.

Personnel-wise, the biggest change on offense comes in the backfield, where former understudy Jeremy Smith (371 yards) ascends into the top spot as Joseph Randle's successor. Like Randle before him, Smith is a big, strong, physical back with surprising speed and quickness, giving him the sort of total-package skill set needed to grab all-conference honors as a senior. OSU also returns junior Desmond Roland (301 yards), who will be Smith's primary reserve, but needs at least one or two additional backs to step forward and create adequate depth. Sophomore Caleb Muncrief could be the third back, as could true freshmen Corion Webster and Rennie Childs. Once again, senior fullback Kye Staley will lead the way. Let's keep this mind: OSU sneezes out first-team all-conference running backs. Smith is the next in line.

The offensive line could end up looking one of two ways, depending on where OSU plays senior Parker Graham. If the staff feels comfortable with junior Chris Grisbhy at right guard, Graham could shift back to left tackle, moving sophomore Devin Davis into a reserve role. On the other hand, if the staff thinks Davis is a future star – as many agree – Graham could remain inside at guard, making Grisbhy the line's top interior reserve. Let's go off the idea Graham remains inside; that would leave Davis and junior Daniel Koenig at tackle, Graham and senior Brandon Webb at guard and junior Jake Jenkins at center. Jenkins replaces Evan Epstein after making one start in the middle a year ago. Given how wonderfully Lane Taylor played in 2012, OSU really should insert Graham into the starting lineup at right guard – especially if Davis is ready to go on the blind side.

The receiver corps is the best in the Big 12 and one of the top five nationally. The best thing about this group? Well, junior Josh Stewart (101 receptions for 1,210 yards) could beat you, as he did during the course of last season. Or senior Tracy Moore (20 for 259) could break you, seeing that he's back to full strength after last year's injury. Seniors Charlie Moore (35 for 542) and Blake Jackson (29 for 598) are sneaky; Jackson can be more than sneaky, thanks to his combination of pseudo-tight-end size and pass-catching ability. There's your top four: Moore and Moore outside, Stewart and Jackson inside. There's more. Basically, you can't turn over a stone in Stillwater without finding an underclassman who proved unstoppable on the scout team – whether Jhajuan Seales, David Glidden, Blake Webb, Austin Hays or Brandon Sheperd, among a few others. Finally, true freshman Ra'Shaad Samples might be the fastest receiver in the entire Big 12.

- Defense: The offense is in place. The task of rediscovering this defense's momentum and self-confidence falls on former linebackers coach Glenn Spencer, the Cowboys' new coordinator. Spencer's familiarity with OSU's roster is a bonus, as is Gundy's seal of approval. But the issues are obvious: OSU took a major step back last season against premier competition, allowing 47.60 points per game in losses to Arizona, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Baylor. So what happened in 2012? The Cowboys had their bouts with inefficiency on third down, making things far too easy on the Wildcats, Longhorns and others. Then there was the decline in turnovers: OSU had only 22 takeaways last fall, half of the program's 2011 total and its lowest single-year output since 2007.

Turnovers are a byproduct of pressure, which is in turn a byproduct of aggressive play from the defensive line. This year's group has a bang-or-bust feel at end, even if the interior is terrific. Good news first? Good news first: OSU's tackle combination of senior Calvin Barnett (30 tackles, 8.5 for loss) and junior James Castleman (30 tackles, 6.5 for loss), spelled by seniors Davidell Collins and Anthony Rogers, could very well be the Big 12's best. It's such a nice group – and such a deep group – as to likely lend a huge boost to a questionable crop of extremely unproven ends. But can this group deliver even with the assistance? Senior Tyler Johnson, a converted linebacker, could be a presence on passing downs. Likewise with sophomore Jimmy Bean, who played a touch as a true freshman before an August injury led to a redshirt in 2012. What about JUCO transfer Sam Wren? How it's looking now: Johnson and either Bean or Trace Clark will start, spelled by Wren, Clark or Bean and a handful of true and redshirt freshmen. The interior is terrific; the situation at end is troubling, to say the least.

The linebacker corps returns two starters but must find a replacement for Alex Elkins on the weak side. Does sophomore Ryan Simmons (23 tackles, 5.0 for loss) have the athleticism to move to the weak side from middle linebacker, where he spent last season? OSU seems to think so, which is a good start, and let's remember that OSU will send in a fifth defensive back in lieu of Simmons in certain packages. Meanwhile, the Cowboys love senior Caleb Lavey (53 tackles, 7.0 for loss) in the middle, thanks to his smarts, and have enormous trust and faith in senior Shaun Lewis (58 tackles, 7.5 for loss) on the strong side. Senior Joe Mitchell and sophomore Damarcus Sherod will be the top reserves.

The secondary is in good shape. At cornerback, OSU brings back senior Justin Gilbert (63 tackles), who shouldn't lack for motivation after a down junior campaign; sophomore Kevin Peterson, the second starter after spring drills; and fellow sophomores Ashton Lampkin and Miketavius Jones, who should both challenge for spots in larger packages. At the same time, OSU added in Kansas transfer Tyler Patmon, a three-year starter at KU who should – if he learns the system – replace Peterson in the starting lineup. At the very least, the Cowboys know Patmon can step in and supply immediate depth and experience on the outside. Along the back end, the Cowboys bring back senior starters Daytawion Lowe (75 tackles) and Shamiel Gary (72 tackles, 2 interceptions), along with seasoned reserves like Zack Craig, Lyndell Johnson, Larry Stephens and Deion Imade.

- Special teams: OSU has to replace its starting kicker, punter and kickoff specialist – all one man, former star Quinn Sharp. The depth of the decline depends on how ably UCLA transfer Kip Smith, sophomore Bobby Stonebraker, junior Michael Reichenstein and true freshman Ben Grogan adapt to new roles. Smith will likely handle kickoffs and perhaps punts, should he outduel Reichenstein. Stonebraker will handle field goals, most likely, unless Grogan shows some mettle during fall camp.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

- Quarterback: The competition begins anew minus one challenger, sophomore Wes Lunt, who left OSU after the spring and landed at Illinois, after a kerfuffle. And so there were two: Clint Chelf (1,588 yards and 15 touchdowns), a senior, and J.W. Walsh (1,564 yards and 13 touchdowns), a sophomore. Does last season's pecking order give us any hints for 2013? Remember that Walsh initially replaced an injured Lunt last September before suffering his own injury on Oct. 20; Lunt then returned, replaced by Chelf two weeks later. I don't think this portends anything for OSU's continued competition. What about the fact that Chelf ended last year as the starter? It's something to consider, but experience didn't matter a hair in last year's competition, of course. Instead of focusing on the past, let's consider what each brings to the table in 2013: Chelf is a pocket passer, one who can stand and deliver to OSU's terrific receiver corps, while Walsh is the more agile, dual-threat, well-rounded option. In a sense, OSU could use both quarterbacks – though that's not in the cards, barring injury. If Chelf gets the nod, OSU will average more than 40 points per game and finish in the top 10 nationally in total, passing and scoring offense. On the other hand, if Walsh gets the nod, OSU will average more than 40 points per game and finish in the top 10 nationally in total, passing and scoring offense. Pick your poison. I like Walsh's athleticism, which could give this offense a somewhat different dimension, but I can't ignore Chelf's experience or the rapport he's seemingly developed with the Cowboys' receivers.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

- Oklahoma: The season finale might again decide the Big 12 winner and automatic BCS berth. In fact, given how many solid teams there are in the Big 12, the winner of that game could conceivably finish second in the conference – say, with Texas taking first – and still land an at-large BCS bid. So there's much on the line beyond, you know, the all-important bragging rights. Every game against the league's top third is vital: OU, UT, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, what have you. The Cowboys also open with Mississippi State in Houston, which is very nice to see, before taking on UTSA and Lamar, which is upsetting.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

- In a nutshell: Oklahoma State joins Texas and Oklahoma in the top third of the Big 12, baby steps ahead of Kansas State and Baylor, and has more than enough offensive firepower to replicate 2011's success and earn a BCS berth. If this does occur, it'll be as a result of one of the nation's best offenses – and this projection is more than safe despite the continued quarterback competition, since the Cowboys will roll with either Chelf or Walsh under center. The backfield is deep, the receiver corps just superb, the offensive line solid and the quarterback position in secure hands. This offense is awesome.

The defense will be better. But is the defense good enough to lift the Cowboys past the Longhorns and Sooners? Yeah, it's definitely possible. It's still not probable: OSU's offense is elite, the defense less so, and the end result is right here – third in the Big 12, No. 20 in the FBS, one of those teams with championship potential but more concerns than college football's elite group. The good news is that OSU is really only an aggressive, opportunistic, ball-taking defense away from 2011. Yes, the offense should be that good.

If the breaks go the Cowboys' way: 11-1, 8-1 in the Big 12, back in the BCS. If the defense gets no pass rush at end and doesn't improve at cornerback: 8-4 or 7-5, much like last season. I think the defense will be better, so let's say nine wins during the regular season, six during Big 12 play, and a shot at a major bowl heading into the three-game finale of Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma.

- Dream season: OSU goes 12-0 in the regular season, beating OU 50-10 in December, to earn a shot against an SEC opponent in the national championship game.

- Nightmare season: The Cowboys' defense remains a mess, hampering a superb offense and leading to another seven-win regular season.

- All-name team nominee: K Bobby Stonebraker.

UP NEXT

- Who is No. 19? This program is 3-8 since the start of the 2010 season when allowing 35 or more points.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

- Conference: Big 12

- Location: Stillwater, Okla.

- Nickname: Cowboys

- Returning starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)

- Last year's ranking: No. 32

- 2012 record: 8-5 (5-4)

- Last year's re-ranking: No. 34

- 2013 schedule:

Aug. 31 vs. Mississippi State (in Houston)

Sept. 7 at UTSA

Sept. 14 Lamar

Sept. 28 at West Virginia

Oct. 5 Kansas State

Oct. 19 TCU

Oct. 26 at Iowa State

Nov. 2 at Texas Tech

Nov. 9 Kansas

Nov. 16 at Texas

Nov. 23 Baylor

Nov. 30 Oklahoma

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.