The #Seahawks want to keep Bobby Wagner and have the flexibility to extend his contract. The question is, what will it cost after C.J. Mosley reset the market? Those who know Wagner, who is representing himself, say don’t expect a discount. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/d3GcyCXTB4 — Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 6, 2019

Maybe it’s because it’s a quiet time in the NFL calendar but for some reason Bobby Wagner’s contract situation has become a ‘thing’.

It isn’t.

The Seahawks had a serious problem on their hands a few weeks ago. They had four key players all out of contract after the 2019 season — Wagner, Russell Wilson, Frank Clark and Jarran Reed.

By paying Wilson and trading Clark they’ve all but solved the problem. The franchise tag is free and available next year if needs be. If they can’t agree terms on a new deal with Wagner, they will undoubtedly tag him. They’re unlikely to use the tag on Reed.

In fact it’s somewhat likely, whatever happens with Wagner, that they allow Reed to set his own market in free agency before making a call on whether to retain him. They did that with Michael Bennett in 2014. It’s hard to gauge Reed’s value coming off the most productive year in his career for sacks. The Seahawks probably need to see if he can do it again in 2019. Reed in turn could make a lot more money if he goes into free agency off the back of two 10-sack seasons.

None of this really matters at the moment though. The fact is there’s no drama here. One way or another Wagner is staying in Seattle. There’s a decent chance he and the Seahawks will come to an agreement on an extension this summer. If not — he gets tagged. And they can tag him for two years if needs be — tying him to Seattle for three more seasons. By that point he’d be approaching 32.

This is all very different to the Russell Wilson situation. There’s not four players to try and keep. There’s nobody like Mark Rodgers playing silly games in the media. The franchise isn’t going to be in limbo over uncertainty over the middle linebacker like it would be over the quarterback. That’s no review of Wagner’s importance to Seattle either. It’s simply a reality. He’s a sensational player and by far the best at his position. But nobody’s questioning the future of the franchise if the Seahawks choose to tag him in 2020.

The tag actually makes a lot of sense for the team.

Thanks to the Jets, the linebacker market is in a weird place. Before free agency the highest paid players at inside linebacker were Luke Kuechly ($12.3m APY) and Wagner ($10.75m APY). Kwon Alexander, coming off a serious knee injury, surprisingly reset the market at $13.5m a year. Then, for no apparent reason other than major competition for his signature, the Jets decided to give C.J. Mosley $17m a year.

Presumably Mosley’s market was red-hot. There’s no other explanation for topping Alexander’s contract by $3.5m per season. Paying an inside linebacker $17m a year is quite preposterous. Especially for a player who is very much in the ‘good not great’ category like Mosley.

It leaves the Seahawks needing to argue their case to a player representing himself. Just because the Jets made a daft decision doesn’t necessarily mean they have to be a slave to the market. The franchise tag number for a linebacker in 2019 is $15.443m. The Seahawks could keep Wagner for a similar amount next year on the tag. Then, if no extension was agreed, they’d have to pay 120% of Wagner’s salary to tag him again in 2021.

So there’s no real incentive for the Seahawks to blow New York’s market-changing decision out of the water. Therefore the onus is on Wagner to either insist on topping Mosley’s salary or come to a reasonable agreement that works for both parties.

You might argue — but why go down this road? Won’t it create drama with Wagner? A popular player on the team?

It’s simple business. I sometimes wonder if fans and media make a bigger deal of the franchise tag than players. The tag this year led to mega-contracts for Demarcus Lawrence and Frank Clark. Lawrence was tagged twice and it never had a negative impact in Dallas. Now he’s one of the richest men in NFL history.

Indeed the only real noise we’ll hear about this will be on social media with the numerous calls of ‘pay the man’ if indeed it ever gets as far as the tag for Wagner. That’s despite the fact the Seahawks would actually be paying him extremely handsomely if they tagged him twice ($34m fully guaranteed over two years having already invested $47m in him previously).

We don’t need to overthink this. Wagner will be in Seattle one way or another for at least the next three seasons. No drama. No concern.

There’s one other thing to address — Seattle’s decision to draft two linebackers this year. Are they hedging against Wagner’s future?

No, they are not.

Here’s what Pete Carroll said in his end-of-season press conference immediately after the 2016 season:

“We need some youth at the linebacker spot now. Bobby and K.J. played 1000’s of plays this year between the two of them and were extremely successful but we need to address that. We didn’t really get anybody that made a difference in the last couple of years that can really fight to take those guys job. Think if somebody could battle K.J. and Bobby for their starting jobs? That’s what we need to draft towards, so we’ll be looking there.”

In 2016 Wagner played 99.35% of the defensive snaps. Wright played 97.41%.

There’s a very good reason why Carroll identified youth at linebacker as a vital need. He knew he couldn’t ask Wagner and Wright to keep playing practically every defensive snap.

However, the 2017 draft came and went and despite spending 11 picks none were used on a linebacker. In the 2018 draft they only added Shaquem Griffin (who was more of a blitzing nickel-LB than an orthodox MIKE or WILL).

The Seahawks have been seeking youth at this position for two years and three drafts. Simply put, none of their ‘type’ of linebackers were available until this year (this article describes their type in more detail).

That’s why they drafted Cody Barton and Ben Burr-Kirven. They ‘fit’ what the Seahawks want at the position. They finally have their youth and depth at linebacker.

Now they can spell Wagner, Wright and Mychal Kendricks. They have cover against injuries. They have special teams value. Kendricks is also out of contract in 2020 and Wright’s two-year deal has an out after one year. If they’re hedging against anyone it’s Wright and Kendricks, not Wagner.

I’ll say it again — there’s no drama here. The Seahawks love Bobby Wagner. He will either receive a contract extension or be tagged. It’s all good.

And tomorrow the Seahawks can start signing pass rushers. It should be an interesting week.

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