The Turnbull government's national energy guarantee is set for a rocky reception when energy ministers meet in Hobart, with one state declaring new modelling confirmed its "worst fears", and another saying it was "deeply disappointing".

Federal Environment and Energy minister Josh Frydenberg will front the dinner on Thursday night and is expected to release a paper during Friday's talks that has yet to be shared with state and territory counterparts.

The federal government provided a summary of its modelling for the energy guarantee on Wednesday, claiming wholesale prices would be as much as 23 per cent lower than business usual under the dual "guarantee" to cut emissions while improving reliability of the nation's ailing electricity grid.

South Australia Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis indicated his state would reject the plan, which needs consensus from all parties to proceed. For historical reasons, changes to the National Electricity Market also need to pass the SA parliament.