“This was a campaign for social behavioral change,” he said. “I would ask people, ‘What do you do when you’re frustrated?’ And they would say, ‘I march.’ ”

His reply became almost standard, he said: “If the people who marched actually voted, we wouldn’t have to march in the first place.”

Now, Obama campaign strategists say they are taking Arizona seriously.

“I’m completely focused on metrics, and I’m not going to waste money,” said Jim Messina, Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, referring to the campaign’s decision to open offices in the state, where Mr. Obama won 45 percent of the vote in 2008 despite Mr. McCain’s advantages. “Arizona is the one state in the country where we didn’t play hard in 2008.”

Campaign experts still consider Arizona a long shot for Mr. Obama. If the election were held today, “Obama would lose handily,” said Bruce Merrill, a professor emeritus at Arizona State University. But, Mr. Merrill added, “there are some things going on here that could be more favorable a year from now for Obama.”

Among the factors working against the president in Arizona is the housing bust, which has hurt Arizona more than most other places. About half of the homeowners with mortgages in the state owe more than their houses are worth, and the same is true of about 60 percent of commercial properties with mortgages. Arizona is not the only place where Mr. Obama is hoping to take advantage of demographic changes. Although Mr. Obama’s support among blue-collar white voters has been weakening, and his prospects in traditional presidential bellwethers like Ohio and other industrial states are shaky, the campaign is trying to shore up an alternative Western strategy that expands the electoral map.

Campaign officials say they will still fight hard in the Midwest, but they are plotting an alternative strategy that seeks to take advantage of demographic changes in the West. Already, the Democratic National Committee has been running Spanish-language ads for Mr. Obama in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Florida.

“It’s about flushing out the Hispanic vote,” said Robert Meza, a Latino state senator from Phoenix.

Mr. Meza said Latinos in Arizona were worried that the state had moved too far to the right on the political spectrum. “People feel that if it goes any further, they will be even more scapegoated,” he said.