Turnout is everything in elections.

That could be good news for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, if a key Morning Consult polling trend continues. Warren is third overall in the organization’s latest 2020 Democratic presidential primaries poll, behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, but she has bounded into a strong second place among respondents in early primary states who are “extremely interested in politics” -- that is, Democrats most likely to vote.

Among this category of highly motivated voters, Biden leads with 31 percent and Warren is in second with 24 percent. Sanders is next with 15 percent. (Second and third place flip among all respondents in early primary states, with Sanders at 21 percent and Warren at 13 percent.)

Warren’s apparent surge in recent months has Democratic Party leaders and on-the-ground activists buzzing. Is it the real thing, they wonder, or a passing phase, like the expired boomlets for California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg?

Her rise also has brought back the subject of her electability.

Conventional wisdom has it that Warren excites the progressive base, especially young voters, yet does not particularly appeal to either African-American voters, a key Democratic constituency, or the traditionally Democratic-voting white working-class voters who unexpectedly turned to Donald Trump in 2016.

But a January analysis of her 2018 Massachusetts re-election by FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nathaniel Rakich indicates the handwringing about Warren’s electability might be unnecessary.

Rakich found that the two-term senator dramatically outperformed the 2016 presidential results of Hillary Clinton in Massachusetts towns with fewer college graduates and lower incomes than average, areas where Trump’s 2016 totals did markedly better than 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

This indicates that Warren’s message, focused on income inequality and related issues, does resonate with working-class Democrats who flipped to Trump in 2016.

“Warren’s ability to match or even exceed President [Barack] Obama’s 2012 performance in these areas suggests that she might be the right candidate to persuade Obama-Trump voters to once again vote Democratic in the 2020 general election,” Rakich wrote.

Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren cheer as she arrives at her New York rally on Monday. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)AP

This is an important finding for Democrats worried about Warren’s ability to woo back blue-collar Democrats who took a flier on Trump in 2016. But Rakich does point out that the perception that Warren has an enthusiasm gap among “nonwhite communities” is based on reality. Warren’s performance in Boston’s black-majority precincts lines up with Clinton’s in 2016 -- in short, good but not outstanding. On the positive side for Warren, Hispanic voters appear to like her quite a lot.

One thing is certain: Warren is having a moment. On Monday night, she drew more than 20,000 people to New York City’s Washington Square Park for a campaign event.

“There’s a lot at stake in this election, and I know people are scared,” she told the crowd. “But we can’t choose a candidate we don’t believe in just because we’re too scared to do anything else. And Democrats can’t win if we’re scared and looking backward.”

-- Douglas Perry

@douglasmperry

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