Why the polls were wrong, why Trump won, and it’s bad, and no, we should not “unify” with DNC/oligarchs to resist Trump

It’s a tragedy that didn’t have to happen.

In the alternative universe, we are celebrating.

If Barack Obama has said, “I endorse Bernie Sanders” in March 2016, we wouldn’t have a president Trump. Thanks Barack. That’ll be your legacy then.

Billions of dollars could put her over the top. The whole elite on her side. Something went very badly wrong, right to the core of the party.

Now, as for the inevitable call for unity…

If I leave the door of the henhouse open and a fox steals a chicken, I can’t really blame the fox. That’s what foxes do. I gave him the opportunity. If I keep leaving it open year after year and the foxes get more aggressive and fox-like, I still can’t blame them.

The Democratic party is like the farmer (me) in this parable. Since Bill Clinton at least, the Democrats have not done right by the people, have offered no meaningful, lasting improvement in people’s lives. By not giving the people universal, free, government health care, a decent minimum wage, good infrastructure, and a chance to improve through a fair education system, the Democrats lost the goodwill of the people.

The Democrats bent and accommodated as politics became distorted into a form of meaningless entertainment controlled by a few large corporations. They put up charmers for office who played sax on Arsenio Hall or slow jammed the news and firmly established the triviality of politics and elevated celebrity personality higher than policy.

So, the fox moved in. The fox moved more in. The fox moved more right. What difference does policy make? None of those policies they talk about really happen on my street, the people think, and then they might as well vote for Trump.

The rise of Trump is entirely the responsibility of the leaders of the Democratic party. They abandoned the people for the bankers, insurance companies, oil companies and military contractors. It’s not Republican propaganda. It’s true. There is no party of the people. The people know it.

In 1929 before the crash, the Republicans controlled the White House, the senate by 17 votes and the House of Representatives by 104 seats. In 1933, after FDR’s election, the Democrats had the presidency, the senate by 23 seats, and the house by more than two to one, with a massive 126 vote advantage.

The people liked the New Deal. They knew who to thank and the Democrats held the presidency for 20 straight years, and 28 out of the next 36 years. Democrats maintained control of the senate for until 1981, except for four years, so 44 out of the next 48 years. Democrats controlled the house until 1995 except for four years, so 58 out of the next 62 years.

Obama also had a crisis on his hands when he took office in 2009. But he bailed out the banks, not the homeowners. And Obamacare is an insurance company wet dream.

The New Deal lead to the Civil Rights Movement in that the federal judges that backed Thurgood Marshall’s suits were appointed by FDR. So you see, doing right by the whole people is actually a pre-condition for addressing racism. You can’t change inequality (if you actually even want to) without at least some goodwill from the masses. If you give them nothing when they desperately need and deserve a lot, they won’t be there to create a 60 year left-leaning coalition.

The open hen house door is the precondition for the rise of fox. True, if this year the Democrats had not undemocratically installed an unlikable, corrupt, dishonest, catastrophic, warmonger with a penchant for surrounding herself with sycophants, the insiders of the Democratic party might have continued on with their con for a few more years and continued to enrich themselves without any resistance from the left. But they pushed their con too far.

It’s true a Trump presidency may be an unprecedented disaster. If he were to put together a database of Muslims or find a way to stifle descent and undo freedom of the press, then his administration could be a step toward fascism. If you think American institutions are so weak that he could get away with crude, old style repression like Erdogan in Turkey or Putin in Russia, then there is a lot to worry about.

But if American institutions are simply moribund but not dead, then there maybe some silver linings to a Trump presidency. The constitutional allocation of the right to declare war to congress might finally be not only the law, but the way the government acts, de facto and de jure, an end to the Imperial Presidency.

A drone strike is an act of war and requires congressional approval. Every single strike. The president should not be able to engage in military action or even send troops to a location where war is possible without congressional authorization.

Obama and Bush openly flouted the war powers provisions of the constitution, as indeed did other presidents before them. Partisan politics prevented congress from insisting on a strict construction of the constitutional war powers regime. That was a mistake, obviously. President Trump might lead to the correction of that mistake.

A Trump presidency may have echoes of the Nazis. Maybe people will be labeled and treated differently explicitly in law under Trump based on ethnicity in a completely unconstitutional way. It’s possible, if unlikely. Trump might also be like Silvio Berlusconi, although I doubt he will hire teenage prostitutes, but you never know. Or Arnold Schwarzzenger. Some kind of clueless, megalomaniac leader, who is no good, but not the end of the world.

I bet Trump would hire a bunch of regular Republicans to run his administration, because he has no qualified people and no ideas of his own. There would be a regular Republican administration with a few cranks lead by a nut who mouths off. After he runs his mouth, the administrators will scramble to undo what he said until he blows up again. Meanwhile, the administration will be rather blandly Republican for awhile.

Then Trump will tire of the old fashion Republicans. They aren’t loyal to him and the people don’t seem to love him. He will either then spin out of control and be completely unpopular and leave the White House with his tail between his legs, or he’ll get smart, finally, and realize the Bernie Sanders agenda is the only agenda that will make the people love you. He’ll propose Medicare for all and manage to bring along enough Republicans to get it passed. When he sees how much people like it, and him, he’ll raise the minimum wage. Then win re-election in a landslide and become a true and dangerous tyrant in the second administration.

Why? Because the Democrats did not close the door and pass Medicare for all or a decent minimum wage when they had the chance.

That’s a scenario that is possible. A lot of possible scenarios for Trump. Because he is a racist pig, and because racism is the worst crime in human history, it is immoral and unethical to vote for Trump regardless of what eventually happens should he become president.

You, the progressive, are in the passenger seat driving down route 9, straight south. You say to the driver, the corporatist, “Hey, turn left here. If you keep driving straight, we’re going to go into a ditch. The road is out ahead.” The driver keeps on going straight. So you try again, another street to the left. Nope. He keeps going south. You yell and scream at each other. Finally he pulls over to the side to stop the argument.

“Look,” says the corporatist, “we are surrounded by enemies and we need to get to our destination as soon as we can.”

The progressive says, “Sure, can I drive?”

“No.” And off you go again, straight south. Now, if in fact the bridge is out ahead and you will go right into a ditch, the passenger should continue to raise hell, even through you pulled over to have a heart to heart about not fighting any more.

Every Democrat who endorsed Hillary knew she was the mafia don of a crime syndicate. They endorsed her anyway. Now we all know she was the don. And they should pay with their jobs.

All of them, all these Democrats who did this to us, should go. Then we can unify.

…but they don’t see how deep it is… all the democrats knew who Hillary was. they kept on taking her money. someone who everyone hates — how did she get so far? why did Obama let it happen? why did they all endorse her?…money… the whole party belongs to Goldman Sachs and Citibank. nothing for the people. Give the people something — health care that doesn’t suck — something….

Calling them racist and deplorable is a terrible strategy, and it’s not even true. There are racists everywhere and were yesterday and will be tomorrow. If you want to lower that temperature, make everyone’s life less precarious. Not fighting for crumbs. Security. You’re not going to brow beat people into changing their minds. You have to work with them. Give the working people, all of them, something. Anything. We got nothing from Obama. It’s his fault. He could have endorsed Bernie but he’s in Citibank’s pocket too. You can’t let politicians get this rich. They are only in it for the money. It’s not okay. You can ruin a country like that. It’s bad. We’ve been screwed.

How bad will Trump be? Let’s think about it.

Worst case for the wall: Trump succeeds in building a fence or wall on the Mexican border. Waste of money and bad publicity follow but no change in immigration reality.

Best case for the wall: Democrats and Republicans in congress act like a separate body from the executive and stop the wall from being built.

Conclusion: Even if he does build the wall, although unlikely, it would not be an existential crisis, as would be endless war in Syria and boots on the ground and no fly zones with Clinton. I think it’s a dumb idea, but it’s not the end of the world.

Worst case on nuclear weapons: Trump declares he thinks tactical nuclear weapons should be used in missions, actually uses one without congressional approval.

Best case on nuclear weapons: Congress reasserts its constitutional right to declare war and takes away the imperial power of the president to conduct any act of war without congressional approval.

Conclusion: Trump may not be more likely to use a nuclear weapon than any other president. If he is, his excessive language may well lead to a reduction in the imperial powers of the presidency.

Worst case on racism and sexism: Trump is a terrible role model for America and people actually start to act more racist and sexist ways making America more ugly.

Best case on racism and sexism: People realize a president is just a person doing a job and not a secular saint. A flawed person can do the job and we shouldn’t look to celebrities as role models but find a sense of worth internally and act morally because if we don’t act morally, we can’t look ourselves in the mirror. All presidents get a haircut: Lincoln had greatness about him but unlike some of his contemporaries, he was a committed white supremacists. FDR is one of my heroes, but interning the Japanese Americans was inexcusable. Thankfully George Washington did not want to be president for life, setting the stage for democratic stability in the United States. He did the right thing with his own slaves, freeing them on his death, but never stood against slavery as a matter of public policy. Instability in South America at least also ended slavery 50 years earlier than in the US. And on and on. Just flawed people doing a job. From now on, we stop looking for role models.

Conclusion: Some bad behavior by Trump supporters is inevitable. This is bad.

This is the most likely bad thing and it will be bad.

Worst case on civil rights: Trump closes down newspapers he doesn’t like and puts Muslims on a watch list.

Best case scenario: Institutions such as the courts, congress, and the people in the streets re-assert the value of liberty.

Public policy worst case: Trump passes a tax plan that helps the rich and does nothing for regular Americans. He creates a trade war with China and tanks the economy.

Best case scenario: Trump tries to pass terrible laws but is stopped by a bipartisan coalition, then, realizing that you don’t get adoring crowds by giving money to rich people, decides to flip the script and passes a $15 an hour minimum wage, medicare for all, free college, and all of Bernie’s policies because if he does, the people will adore him. He might try being an alt-right Republican, see what works for him there, then be an FDR Democrat. You just don’t know what he will actually get done. Whatever he passes will have to have Democratic votes, as the Republicans will not simply fall in line behind him.

Conclusion: Who the hell knows what would happen? Certainly not Trump.

If congress gets its act together, President Trump, we can live through it.

Bad polls

First, why were the polls and 538’s predictions off? It has to be the “shy Trump supporter” effect. The “shy Trump supporter” was clear in the polls: Trump people were more likely to admit they would vote for Trump to a computer than to a human being. The numbers were small. Hillary did great in the exit polls tonight. Maybe that’s due to shy Trumper as well.

The shy voters are so shy they would not admit to a machine they were voting for Trump. They didn’t tell the exit pollers. So accounting for the shy Trump supporters as Nate Silver did at 538 by factoring the difference between computer and human pollsters underestimated the number.

What were these people thinking?

Why were they so shy? The elites told them that they “can’t vote for Trump.” People don’t like that. And being associated with Trump is being associated with White Trash as a social group. No one wants to be thought of as White Trash. Lastly, Trump supporters were “deplorable” and stupid and racist and sexist. Who wants to be labelled like that?

Some of them are those things… but so are some of the poeple who voted for Hillary. And Trump is a proper asshole. But so is Hillary. Why did one side insist on making the other shut up? Did that work well? Wouldn’t it be better to listen to people and try to address their legitimate concerns?

But, even as they tell you, no, you can’t, you know you can. Did telling someone not to open a particular door ever stop them from opening that exact same door?

The one great thing about voting for Trump (as opposed to actually having his as president which is not great at all) is not racism or sexism or any of that. It’s pissing off the snooty elites. Obama needs a haircut. The media is full of it. They don’t know shit. The Bushes too can shit a brick.

One great thing about Trump for the F U voter is that you can piss off both the elite Democrats and the Republicans with one stroke. It’s so tempting. They suck so much… Hillary is a truly terrible candidate. The Democratic Party is truly disgusting.

The Bushes really are appalling. Cheney, what an ass. George Soros. Lloyd Blankfein. Wolf Blitzer. Man, don’t you want to piss them off?

Trump is a pretty bad vessle for rage against the machine, but he was the only vessle. The people made it exceeding clear that this was a change election so, brilliantly, the Democrats cheated to nominate Hillary Clinton.

It’s really funny when you look at it like that. “CHANGE!” Here you go, No Change. Then, shock, they wanted change.

Wikileaks didn’t help Clinton. The media thought they were doing her a favor by pushing the real stories under the rug — about how Obama let Citibank pick his cabinet, about collusion between the super pacs and the campaign, about the epic fraud at the Foundation. But no. By denying less informed voters of the real story, this spirit cooking, pizza pedophilia stuff went wild as a rumor.

See how that works? If you throw your credibility away, as did CNN and the New York Times and Politico and so on, then there is no gatekeeper.

And of course, the primary was not free and fair. Bernie was robbed. I know he himself rolled over like a good dog but the rest of us were pissed. I don’t know of any example in history of a party (or faction) being robbed at the ballot box and then uniformly voted for the people that robbed them. It’s simply delusional to think that you can rob someone and then shame them into voting for you.