We have a week of warmer temperatures coming to be enjoyed in Michigan. Does that mean we are done with frost? Here’s what I’m seeing.

This week will have several days with highs in the 60s across Lower Michigan. A few showery days will be a little cooler.

But there are a few points I want to make about the thought of no more frost in Michigan.

The most important point is where you are located. Michigan is a state that has vast temperature differences during the first half of May. Areas south of I-94 will have a much tougher time having a frost compared even to inland areas north of Lansing.

That leads me to the second point on whether frost is done. It’s only April still. That means just using our average weather over the past 50 years, yes we will have frost again even down into central Lower Michigan.

Now the main point on the possibility of another frost is a look at the weather pattern expected early next week. The cold pocket in Canada has not gone away for the summer yet. The cold still lurks just north of the U.S. border. We rely heavily on two weather models when looking out eight to 10 tens. Both of those models show a chilly period at least for early next week, with the Canadian cold air oozing southward.

Here’s the low temperature forecast for May 6, 2020.

Low temperature forecast from the European Model for Wednesday morning, May 6, 2020.

The middle of next week both of the best models forecast below freezing temperatures over the northern half of Lower Michigan and the U.P. The southern half of Lower Michigan would be real close to a frost in the low-lying colder pockets.

We meteorologists look at the upper-air pattern to see if some weather at the surface will last a long time. The upper-air pattern by early next week shows colder than average air, and a configuration that says the chill could last a week.

Upper air temperature anomaly forecast from Tuesday, April 28 to Wednesday, May 6, 2020 shows the cold air building again in Canada.

So how do you use this information?

If you are south of I-69 and I-96, I think you will probably be okay and avoid a frost. I’d still not go huge on the planting of warm loving vegetables like tomatoes and peppers. Annual flowers can be sensitive and costly to replant. Get your fun gardening going, but keep it to 30 percent of what you’ll end up finishing planting. Plant whatever you can still cover. Plant the warm spots in your yard, like up against the south side of your house.

North of I-69/I-96 up to about U.S. 10 you will probably have a spotty frost in cold areas. Plant very little that can’t handle frost. Wait until this coming weekend when we can see how cold it is actually going to be next week. You could sneak a tomato or two in your garden area, if your garden area is protected, and you can cover the plants.

North of U.S. 10 you will likely still have at least two frosty mornings. You may even have a solid freeze, meaning a few hours below 30 degrees. You can work on your landscape plantings like shrubs and trees. Annual flowers and anything but the most cold-hardy vegetables better wait until we get through this next chilly spell.

We need to see that cold pocket of air in southern Canada go away before we can be confident frost chances are over. Sorry!