Weekend of rallies highlight how state’s diverse electorate and new early spot on primary calendar make it a prize for Democratic candidates

Bernie Sanders brought his anti-establishment message and calls for progressive reform to California, no longer as a long-shot presidential candidate but as a frontrunner with a good chance to win it all.

On Friday evening, Sanders kicked off a rally in sunny San Diego by thanking the thousands of supporters who had gathered, alongside a handful of right-wing protesters, for joining his “political revolution”.

Sanders quickly pivoted to the day’s biggest news: special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, submitted Friday, on possible collusion between Russia and the Trump administration.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is right – it's time for radical change, not more ‘meh’ politics | Arwa Mahdawi Read more

“I don’t know what’s in the report. Nobody does”, Sanders said. “I do know, however, that Mueller wound up indicting 34 people, including 6 Trump campaign officials.” And, he added, “The people have a right to know what’s in that report.”

Sanders’ launched his campaign in California in the same location, right by San Diego’s harbor, where 82 years earlier President Franklin Delano Roosevelt chose to address residents. He’s scheduled to speak in Los Angeles on Saturday, and then a swing by the Bay Area.

The reason for the California tour – Sanders’ first since announcing his new run for president – is simple: math. America’s most populous state has the most delegates up for grabs, and its voters can begin casting ballots 2 February, the same day as the Iowa caucuses.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A supporter at the San Diego rally on 22 March. Photograph: Etienne Laurent/EPA

For Sanders, the California race will also indicate whether he can overcome some of the challenges of his 2016 campaign, when his progressive record was sometimes obscured by controversy over comments on identity politics, reparations and immigration. White voters form a narrow plurality, not the majority in the state, and in the country’s largest, immigrant-dense county, Los Angeles, most residents speak a language other than English at home.

“It’s a diverse state, and its diversity is what makes it so interesting and important to the candidates,” said Matt Barreto, a professor of Chicana/o Studies at UCLA who did polling for the Clinton campaign in 2016. “None of those Democrats are going to win the 2020 presidential race without having strong support and very high turnout among communities of color. So California gives them an opportunity to try that out and see how effective they can be.”

Sanders lost California’s Democratic primary in 2016 to Hillary Clinton, but his support for a universal, public healthcare system and fervent calls to end impunity for Wall Street made him popular with Democrats in the state.

Sign up for the US morning briefing

He reminded voters of those signatures on Friday – highlighting the need to install for Medicare for All and to combat widening inequality, driven by the greed and criminality of Wall Street.

But there was also an increased focus on one of the senator’s perceived weakness: race, and American capitalism’s disproportionate exploitation of people who are not white.

“When we are talking about injustice this country, we are talking about racial injustice,” Sanders said. All but the wealthiest may be disadvantaged, but “the situation is much worse for black families”, he added. “Let’s be clear,” Sanders said. “When we talk about justice we mean ending institutional racism in all its ugly forms.”

Sanders also pledged an end to “demonizing the undocumented immigrants in this country”, promising to pass immigration perform and provide a path toward citizenship, if not amnesty, for the estimated 11m undocumented people in the country. Asylum-seekers would be dealt with humanely, he vowed. “No more snatching babies from the arms of their mothers,” he said. Sanders also promised to take on “the military-industrial complex”, saying he would not allow $700bn to be spent every year on the world’s most expensive military.

Susan Blanton came to the rally in San Diego from Baja California, along with her husband and gregarious labrador retriever. “We crossed the border and came up because we love Bernie,” she said. She was a supporter in 2016 and remains one because “I’m just real antiwar – I’m so sick and tired of this nonstop American imperialism.” She also likes the Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, but prefers Bernie because “he’s thinking about what’s best for the people and not the corporate entities”.

But not all who came are convinced Sanders is the best candidate for the times. “I have always adored Bernie, but there’s a very big issue with our immigration and border that’s really specific,” said Ursual Koenig, of nearby La Mesa. “Bernie touched on it, and I’m glad he did, but I’m looking forward to a little more from him.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Thousands turned out to see Bernie Sanders speak in California. Photograph: Etienne Laurent/EPA

An open question is whether it will be enough to follow his surprise showing of 2016 with an actual win in 2020. To capture California, or at least a good share of its delegates, he will need to expand upon the movement he began building years ago – and win over an increasingly diverse electorate.

“When he first got in, he was a ‘message’ candidate,” said Michael Ceraso, a former aide who helped direct Sanders’ 2016 campaign in California. Sanders was also the “anti-candidate”, perceived by many as the ornery straight-shooter taking on Hillary Clinton’s careful, focus-group-tested centrism.

If Sanders' attempt to win black voters is a redux of 2016, it won't be enough | Theodore R Johnson Read more

Since then, much has changed. Signature Sanders proposals like Medicare for All are now embraced by many Democrats. Sanders himself has risen to national prominence – a member of the Senate Democrats’ leadership team with name recognition on par with former vice-president Joe Biden.

He faces a far more crowded, diverse and left-leaning Democratic primary field, where voters have a plethora of options when it comes to tone, and support for the progressive policies Sanders has long championed is increasingly the standard, not the exception. Sanders is also no longer the hot new thing, now viewed favorably by about as many voters as view him negatively, according to a 14-17 March survey by CNN.

Sanders toured California last fall, campaigning for Representative Barbara Lee. A progressive stalwart representing the East Bay, Lee didn’t really need the help, but the stop allowed Sanders to reintroduce himself to what Lee referred to as “the wokest district in the country”, and to demonstrate his good-soldier commitment to ending “one-party, reactionary rule in Washington” by electing more and better Democrats.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in San Francisco on 6 June 2016. Photograph: Elijah Nouvelage/Reuters

But Lee, who was one of the first to meet with Bernie about his 2016 run, is supporting someone else in 2020. Like California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, more than 30 state lawmakers and four other members of California’s congressional delegation, Lee is backing Senator Kamala Harris, California’s junior senator and former attorney general.

Who is running for president? The full list of 2020 Democratic candidates Read more

Sanders does have one elected Californian in his corner: Representative Ro Khanna, who represents Silicon Valley and serves as one of the Sanders campaign’s national co-chairs. Sanders also has the support of hundreds of delegates to the California Democratic party, Khanna told the Guardian, in another sign the Democratic party’s California chapter has shifted left in recent years.

“This means Senator Sanders will have a large grassroots army giving him a big advantage,” Khanna argued, adding he strongly believes Sanders’ “message of ending bad wars, tackling wealth and income inequality and pushing for bold policies to address climate change will resonate with California voters”.

However, Ceraso, the former Sanders aide, wonders if Bernie will ultimately be the one voters want to deliver that platform in 2020. “Are they looking for that same message in 2016, or are they looking for a different tone?”