PHOENIX -- The Yankees are hoping they hit the jackpot on Aug. 1 trading Carlos Beltran to the Texas Rangers for the fourth pick of the 2015 draft, a 22-year-old right-hander whose fastball has touched 100 mph.

Fat chance, an American League scout predicts.

The scout, a veteran who knows the Yankees' farm system well and wished to remain anonymous, believes Dillon Tate has more of a chance of being a total flop than a good big leaguer.

"I can't get into too much of why I know this, but if Tate doesn't change his pre-game and if he doesn't change how he goes about his work, he'll never succeed ... period," the scout told NJ Advance Media before a recent Arizona Fall League game.

What's wrong with Tate's work habits?

"He works hard," the scout went on. "It's not his work ethic. It's how he works. It's what he does and his stubbornness in it. If he doesn't change that, he won't succeed."

Tate's stock dropped a lot this season, as he went from being ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 46th best prospect in baseball in 2015 to currently being out of the top 100.

"He doesn't know how to pitch," the scout said of Tate, who received a $4.2 million signing bonus from Texas.

Tate's 2016 season, his first full one as a pro, was rocky, as he experienced a drop in velocity from high 90s to low-to-mid 90s and he put up poor numbers. While in the Rangers' system, he was 3-3 with a 5.12 ERA for Hickory in 17 outings, 16 as a starter. After changing organizations, Tate pitched as a reliever for Charleston, and with his velocity closer to what it was, he was better, pitching to a 3.12 ERA over seven outings.

The Yankees would love for Tate to develop into a frontline starter, but the scout who talked to NJ Advance Media predicts "he's going to be a reliever."

Why write off Tate as a starter so soon? The scout doesn't foresee Tate ever having three plus pitches that are needed to be a big-league starter.

"You can either spin the ball or you can't," the scout said.

Tate is working on his secondary pitches this fall pitching for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Fall League.

Thus far, he's had mixed results. In his first outing, Tate allowed a three-run homer to the first batter he faced before retiring six in a row, three on strikeouts. Three days later, he gave up a three-run homer and four hits in one inning of relief, an outing that left him with an ERA of 12.00.

"At this point in time, my slider probably needs more work," Tate said last week. "I've worked on the changeup and it's better, but it still can use some work."

The scout we talked to was on hand for Tate's last outing.

"He is too fastball reliant," he said.

The scout is very high on 19-year-old shortstop Gleyber Torres, the big return from the Chicago Cubs in the Aroldis Chapman trade on July 25. He also thinks the Yankees potentially did very well in the July 31 trade that sent Andrew Miller to the Cleveland Indians, too, as he predicts Clint Frazier can develop into a big-league left fielder who will hit .270-to-.280 with 20-25 homers and he likes left-hander Justus Sheffield's potential even more.

"The Yankees didn't make out on the Beltran trade," he said. "The Rangers absolutely thought Tate was going to be a starter when they drafted him, and I could see why. Tate has a great arm. And he's a nice kid. A great kid.

"But Tate's a guy who's stubborn in the way that he goes about it, and unless he changes that, it ain't going to happen for him."

Randy Miller may be reached at rmiller@njadvancemedia.com