Robert Fox

The First Post

March 17, 2008

It is surprising so little has been made of last week’s sacking of Admiral William Fallon, the US commander responsible for the region that includes Iraq, Iran and the Gulf – for it suggests George Bush and Dick Cheney still nurture ambitions to attack Iran. They know this has to be done in the next month or so.

They are backed by the more pragmatic Defence Secretary Robert Gates. Last week he announced the “enforced resignation” of Fallon for speaking out of turn against Bush policy on Iran and Iraq. In an interview in Esquire, the admiral warned against the obsession with Iran’s nuclear programme. “Where five or six pots are boiling over, our nation cannot afford to be mesmerised by one problem,” he said, adding that he favoured more engagement with Iran.

Gates denied Fallon’s departure means the US is about to attack Iran. However, this should not be taken at face value, no more than the weasel words about “enforced resignation”: Fallon was sacked, pure and simple. A recently retired US general, still close to the Pentagon, tells me: “There is a lot of activity – they are up to something.”

The administration was stunned by December’s National Intelligence Estimate which claimed Iran had abandoned its nuclear warhead programme. “It was the Intelligence world deliberately getting at Bush,” said the general. But since then the International Atomic Energy Authority has reported that the scale of activity in Iran’s nuclear plants and labs suggests a weapons programme is under way.

The electoral timetable points to an attack soon. The Majlis vote in Iran has just reinforced the hardliners, and Bush knows he must strike before the presidential election gets underway in the US. The neocon advisers have never missed a beat in their warning: “Bush and Cheney won’t allow Iran to go nuclear on their watch.”

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