Sales projections have arrived for Avril Lavigne’s new “Head Above Water.”

According to Hits Daily Double, the album should sell 21-24K pure US copies this week. With units from track sales and streams included, it may generate 25-28K in first-week consumption.

Based on those figures, “Head Above Water” may challenge for a Top 5 position on the Billboard Top Album Sales (pure sales) chart. It should meanwhile be in the mix for a Top 15 or 20 start on the consumption-driven Billboard 200.

“Head Above Water” is Lavigne’s first studio album since her 2013 self-titled LP.