Replacing Diego Costa: What should Atletico Madrid do in January? Atletico Madrid An analysis of the different options

Six weeks have already passed since Diego Costa last stepped onto the pitch, doing so on November 10 in Atletico Madrid's victory against Espanyol.

The 31-year-old striker featured in the last 10 minutes after replacing Alvaro Morata and the week after the match he couldn't train with the rest of his teammates due to discomfort, needing to go for surgery and being ruled out for around three months.

Since then, Atletico Madrid have played seven games and registered three wins, two draws and two defeats.

Los Rojiblancos scored a total of five goals in the aforementioned games and debate sparked on whether they should effectively replace Costa in the winter transfer market.

In the next few weeks, Atleti will have to face Barcelona in the Supercopa de Espana, Liverpool in the Champions League last 16 and Real Madrid in LaLiga Santander.

A striker arrival could be of paramount importance for the club and MARCA has analysed data offered by Opta to suggest potential signings.

The focus is on strikers from the five major leagues - namely LaLiga Santander, the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1.

Also taken into account is Atletico's salary limit and in our sample we will include strikers who have played at least seven complete games (630 minutes in total).

We have also chosen a series of parameters, which can be seen in each of the graphics and translated into English below each graphic.

Costa came back, but did he really come back?

After three seasons at Chelsea, Costa returned to Atleti in the 2017/2018 campaign.

Expectations were high following his last season at the club in 2013/14, when they were crowned LaLiga Santander champions.

However, long-term injuries and suspensions have resulted in Costa featuring in just half of the league matches since his arrival.

The 31-year-old striker didn't manage to live up to the expectations and the graphs below compare his performance this season (in red) with his displays in previous campaigns (in grey).

Stats (clockwise, starting from the top, and all per 90 mins): Goals excluding penalties; Total shots; Assists; Chances created; Dribbles completed; Aerial duels won; Touches in rival area; Possession recovered in the final third

Stats (clockwise, starting from the top, and all per 90 mins): Goals excluding penalties; Total shots; Assists; Chances created; Dribbles completed; Aerial duels won; Touches in rival area; Possession recovered in the final third

In the following graph we can observe Costa's performance this season compared to his stats in the 2013/14 campaign.

During Atleti's league winning season, the forward registered a 22 percent goal-per-shot ratio (roughly one goal every five shots).

To put this in context, Kylian Mbappe's ratio this season is 23 percent, while Lionel Messi's is 25 percent.

Stats (clockwise, starting from the top, and all per 90 mins): Goals excluding penalties; Total shots; Assists; Chances created; Dribbles completed; Aerial duels won; Touches in rival area; Possession recovered in the final third

Let's replace Costa by complementing Morata

Taking into account Diego Simeone's preferred 4-4-2 formation, we should study the profile of Morata.

Below you can see the Spaniard's performance so far this season (in grey), compared to that of Costa in the same campaign (in red).

Stats (clockwise, starting from the top, and all per 90 mins): Goals excluding penalties; Total shots; Assists; Chances created; Dribbles completed; Aerial duels won; Touches in rival area; Possession recovered in the final third

As we can see in the graph, Morata is presented as a classic poacher, with high presence in the rival area and a notable dominance in the air, as well as a decent goal-per-shot ratio (15 percent).

He has also registered a high number of recoveries in the final third of the pitch, while he barely participated in creating chances and generating assists.

Therefore, we have focused on strikers who stand out in five of the eight parameters initially considered: Total shots, assists, chances created, touches in the rival area and possession recovered in the final third.

We are looking for a forward who shoots to score, but also contributes to the team's play and has presence in the rival area, while also participating in Atletico's high pressing play.

Based on the above, we present two players who could meet the desired profile, and also have a market value that could be assumed by the club even in the case that they don't manage to offload Thomas Lemar in January.

Karim Onisiwo is the first candidate.

The forward, currently at Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga, is 27 years old and has a market value of between 2m and 4m euros, according to CIES.

He is used to playing in a formation with two strikers, accompanied by Robin Quaison or Adam Szalai.

In the graph below you can see his stats compared to those of Morata.

Stats (clockwise, starting from the top, and all per 90 mins): Goals excluding penalties; Total shots; Assists; Chances created; Dribbles completed; Aerial duels won; Touches in rival area; Possession recovered in the final third

Islam Slimani is the second forward.

He is currently at Monaco in Ligue 1, on loan from Leicester City.

He is 31 years old and has a market value of between 2m and 4m euros, according to CIES, and is also used to playing in a formation with two strikers.

This season he has played alongside Wissam Ben Yedder and Jean-Kevin Augustin.

In the graph below you can see his stats compared to those of Morata.

Stats (clockwise, starting from the top, and all per 90 mins): Goals excluding penalties; Total shots; Assists; Chances created; Dribbles completed; Aerial duels won; Touches in rival area; Possession recovered in the final third

Yes, but what if we need a player similar to the 2013/14 Costa?

We have also explored Atletico's option in the scenario that there are no restrictions imposed to the team by the FFP rules.

In an attempt to find a player who could effectively match the stats Costa registered back in 2013/14, our results pointed to Villarreal's forward Gerard Moreno.

He is 27 years old and his market value is between 40m and 50m euros, according to CIES.

Below you can find a graphic which compares Moreno's stats this season with those of Costa in 2013/14.

Stats (clockwise, starting from the top, and all per 90 mins): Goals excluding penalties; Total shots; Assists; Chances created; Dribbles completed; Aerial duels won; Touches in rival area; Possession recovered in the final third

It is important to note that all of the above is merely indicative and that any hypothetical decision should be supported by video analysis and a more complete evaluation.

In addition, any result obtained comes from a selection of parameters that may not coincide with those used by Atletico's scouting department in a hypothetical recruitment process.