Sajid Javid: No one 'really knows' how much no-deal Brexit will cost UK economy

Chancellor Sajid Javid has admitted that no-one "really knows” the economic hit the UK would take in the event of a no-deal Brexit.



Speaking ahead of the Halloween deadline in 31 days’ time, Mr Javid said he has “never pretended” that leaving the EU without an agreement would be without challenges but insisted government planning for such an eventuality would be able to deal with any disruption.

Mr Javid’s comments come ahead of his keynote speech at Conservative Party conference in Manchester, where he will unveil a multi-billion pound plan to boost roads, buses and broadband.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that a no-deal Brexit could cost the UK economy £30bn a year.

Asked about the short-term economic cost of no-deal, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I don’t think anyone really knows a full proper answer to that question, I have never pretended that if you leave without a deal that it won’t be challenging.

“Of course depending on what type of business you’re in especially if you’re a trader with the EU it will have an impact”.

On whether he hoped the OBR's estimate for a “relatively benign” no-deal Brexit was wrong, Mr Javid said he had confidence in the Treasury’s plans.

“What I am confident about with all those mitigations, whether it’s at the ports or elsewhere that we will be able to deal with many of the disruptions around no-deal…” he said.

“I’m also clear that if it was no-deal, there would be significant economic policy response…I will be thinking about a fiscal and other economic policy response.”

Reacting to the comments, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said on Twitter: “The Chancellor refusing to say what the real costs of a no deal Brexit are and its impact on the economy.

“He either hasn't a clue or is being complete disingenuous. Repetition of the word surrender is no substitute for grown up, sensible planning.”

Elsewhere in the interview, the Chancellor was quizzed on whether he knows the Government’s plan to uphold the law surrounding the newly-passed Benn Act, but also leave the EU with or without a deal on 31 October.

He said: “I think I do”.

Mr Javid also slapped down demands from former Tory MP Justine Greening for the Government to publish details of any Brexit negotiations with the EU as a “ridiculous suggestion”.

He added: “The absolute worst negotiating strategy in the world would be to publicly negotiate.”