Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide Tuesday night's showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians in Game 6 of the World Series, and then vote on which team will win at the bottom of the page. The Indians lead the series 3-2.

How we got here

The Cubs won 3-2 Sunday, as Jon Lester pitched six solid innings. The Cubs scratched three runs across off Trevor Bauer in the fourth inning, and Aroldis Chapman threw 42 pitches to get the final eight outs. -- David Schoenfield

Inside the pitching matchup

Tale of the tape: World Series Game 6 starters Josh Tomlin 2016 stats Jake Arrieta 4.40 ERA 3.10 1.19 WHIP 1.08 .269 Opp BA .194 5.90 K/BB 2.50 1.6 WAR 3.4

When Jake Arrieta is on the mound: The 2015 Cy Young Award winner took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in Game 2, though that was a case of his being effectively wild, as he walked three batters and threw 98 pitches in 5 2/3 innings. He has pitched six innings and five innings, respectively, in his other two starts this postseason, so if that pattern continues, Joe Maddon will have to bridge some outs from Arrieta to Aroldis Chapman.

Arrieta threw just 40 percent of his pitches in the strike zone in Game 2, his lowest rate all season. The cold weather in that game might have been a factor, but game-time temperatures for Game 6 are expected to be much higher, in the upper 60s. Arrieta has regained the confidence to throw his cutter/slider after losing the feel for it midseason, which led to some of his control issues. Against the lefty-heavy lineups he has seen in October, Arrieta has thrown that pitch a lot, including 21 times against the Indians in Game 2. Opponents are 5-for-25 against it in the postseason, with six strikeouts and no walks. It's not quite the wipeout pitch it was last year or in April, but it's back to being a pitch he can throw inside to left-handed hitters.

Even when he was walking guys in the second half, Arrieta remained difficult to hit, as he induces a lot of soft contact with his two-seamer. He doesn't throw his curveball as often as the hard cutter/slider, but it had a strikeout rate of better than 40 percent in the regular season. Arrieta doesn't do a very good job holding runners -- base stealers were 23-for-26 off him -- so the Indians might be aggressive if they get on. -- Schoenfield

Icon Sportswire, AP Photo

When Josh Tomlin is on the mound: Tomlin has been the Tribe's secret weapon in October; he has allowed three runs in 15 1/3 innings, and the Indians have won all three of his starts. Tomlin is starting on three days' rest for just the second time in his career, and he pitched much better this season with more rest; he posted a 5.42 ERA in 15 starts on four days' rest and a 3.47 ERA after five days or more. He threw only 58 pitches in his Game 3 outing.

Tomlin hits only 87-88 mph with his fastball, and he isn't going to beat himself, as he had the lowest walk rate among qualified starters. He pounds the zone with his fastball, cutter, changeup and curveball; he surrendered 36 home runs in 174 innings during the regular season but has allowed just one long ball in his past seven starts, a span of 41 innings.

Tomlin has gone heavy on the curveball this postseason. After throwing it about 16 percent of the time in the regular season, he has thrown it 34, 42 and 26 percent of the time in his three playoff starts. If his curveball is working again, that's bad news for the Cubs. According to Mike Petriello of Statcast, the Cubs had the lowest average exit velocity in the majors against curveballs, as well as the lowest contact rate when swinging at curveballs. Tomlin threw 15 of them in Game 3, including five first-pitch curves, and the Cubs went 0-for-5, plus three other swing-and-misses and one foul ball.

Javier Baez in particular has looked brutal against breaking balls in this series, and Addison Russell hit .122 against curveballs in the regular season. I'm guessing Tomlin will once again go heavy on the breaking ball, and Terry Francona will once again have a quick hook if the Indians are leading in the fifth or sixth inning. -- Schoenfield

Player in the spotlight

Kyle Schwarber had three hits in the first two games of the World Series in Cleveland. Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Schwarber. He'll be back in the lineup as the DH, which helps extend a Cubs lineup that hasn't had much production past the first four hitters. Schwarber has slugged .578 against right-handed pitchers in his brief career, but he is hitting just .121 in 34 plate appearances that ended in curveballs. -- Schoenfield

Did you know ...

The most recent road team to win Game 6 of a World Series and force a Game 7 was the 1997 Indians. They defeated the Marlins and Kevin Brown 4-1. Winning pitcher Chad Ogea not only defeated the Marlins' ace but also had two RBIs.

The Indians went on to lose to the Florida Marlins in Game 7 and extend their championship drought. -- ESPN Stats & Information

What will decide the game

The team with the better rate of turning ground balls into outs has won four of the five games in this series. The exception was when the Indians won Game 4.

During the regular season, the Cubs ranked first in the majors in turning ground balls and bunts into outs (77 percent). The Indians ranked third, just behind the Giants (both at 76 percent). In the postseason, the Indians have converted 77 percent and the Cubs 76 percent.

Why is this important to know for these pitchers? Because it's important to their success. Arrieta had the highest ground ball out rate in MLB among pitchers with 15-plus starts in 2016 (84 percent). Tomlin ranked third in the majors and first in the AL (81 percent). -- Mark Simon, ESPN Stats & Info

The man in blue

Joe West has 39 years of experience, the longest run by an umpire in major league history. This is his sixth World Series (1992, 1997, 2005, 2009 and 2012 are the others).

Top thing to know: West does not call a lot of strikes.

West ranks as the fourth-least likely umpire to call a strike in MLB this season, and he has one tendency that stands out: Relative to other umpires, West rarely calls the pitch in the lower-third (and below) area a strike. The gap between him and the umpire who ranks second-least in calling those pitches is about as big as the gap between the ump who ranks second and the ump who ranks 22nd.

For a right-handed pitcher, West will call the high strike and the outside strike often to a left-handed hitter. The area for a right-handed hitter in which he calls strikes often is the inside corner.

For a left-handed pitcher, West doesn't call the inside strike often to a left-handed batter. He will to a right-handed batter, though. When a left-handed batter is at the plate, he'll call a high outside pitch a strike a lot. For a right-handed batter, he'll also call pitches in that spot (which is inside for a righty).

Who does this favor? Cubs catchers excel at getting the low strike, while Roberto Perez is very good at getting the high strike, so it would seem to favor the Indians.

It seems highly unlikely that we would see an ejection, but West did have six ejections this season. In fact, he ejected Francona and Maddon from separate games nine days apart in September!

Those six ejections tied for fourth among umps. West led umpires with eight ejections in 2015. -- Simon, ESPN Stats & Info

Betting guide for Game 6

Westgate line: Chicago Cubs (Arrieta)-140 at Cleveland Indians (Tomlin) +130 Over/under: 7 (-120 over)

Game 6 PickCenter: 55 percent picking Cleveland

Joe Peta: One of the fun things about writing daily for a series that goes six of seven games is the ability to conduct a comparative pricing analysis. When Josh Tomlin started Game 3 versus Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs were listed as -220/+200 favorites at first pitch. That game, of course, was at Wrigley Field, and applying the standard 8 percent adjustment for home field versus a neutral location (applied twice as we're switching to Cleveland) yields an equivalent line of -155/+145 for tonight's game. Click here for more

Who will win?

Jake Arrieta was terrific in his previous outing. So was Josh Tomlin, but there is a stuff discrepancy here. Plus, Tomlin didn't have to deal with Kyle Schwarber as DH. Cubs win 6-2 to force an epic Game 7. -- Bradford Doolittle

We'll finally have a higher-scoring affair, but the clock will strike midnight on the Cubs' comeback, as the Indians will take a middle-of-the-game lead and hold on with their vaunted bullpen. A 5-4 win will give the Indians the championship. -- Jesse Rogers

On Sunday night, Cubs fans got to see the "W" fly over Wrigley after a World Series game for the first time since 1945. Now it's Indians fans' turn to rejoice. Josh Tomlin will continue his late-season roll, the Indians will scratch out an early run, and the dynamic duo of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen will do the rest. Then they will all party at Napoli's, as the Indians win their first World Series in 68 years. -- Scott Lauber

I've picked against the Indians basically throughout the whole playoffs. Now, having spent so much time in this city, Cleveland has grown on me. So for the sake of the people of Believeland, I will pick ... the Cubs.

This is probably very good news for Terry Francona, LeBron James and all the nice folks I've met in these parts. If you want a baseball reason, the Cubs have the advantage in starting pitching. Of course, every time someone not named Corey Kluber has started for the Indians, the other club had the advantage, but the Indians still usually won. -- Andrew Marchand

After clinching the American League Central title, the Division Series and the AL pennant on the road, the Indians are ready to claim the biggest prize of their season at Progressive Field. Although it's a comforting feeling to know staff ace Corey Kluber is ready to go in Game 7, Cleveland is ready to apply the hammer behind Josh Tomlin in Game 6. The Indians will muster enough early offense to get the ball to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and put an end to Major League Baseball's second-most notable championship drought. -- Jerry Crasnick

Where the Series stands

The series moves back to Cleveland, which some have hypothesized could help the Cubs, as it not only allows them to start Schwarber but also gets them away from the pressure of winning in front of the home fans. I don't know if I buy that, especially considering the Indians hit much better at home -- 136 points higher in OPS -- and returning to the AL game allows Francona to insert Andrew Miller and Cody Allen without worrying about pinch hitting for them. It's all hands on deck. The Cubs know they have to stay alive, and the Indians know they have Corey Kluber in reserve for Game 7. -- Schoenfield