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A just released LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by twelve points, 49%-37%. On a four man ballot that includes Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, Obama leads 48%-33%, with Nader and Barr splitting 7%.

McCain seems to have two big problems according to the poll, George W. Bush, and lack of enthusiasm about his candidacy. The poll found that Bush’s approval rating has sunk to 23%.Republicans definitely lack enthusiasm about McCain. Only 58% of self described conservatives said that they would vote for McCain, 15% said that they would vote for Obama, 14% said that they will vote for someone else, and 13% were undecided.

In contrast, 79% of liberals said that they will vote for Obama. Only 45% of McCain supporters say that they are enthusiastic about voting for him compared to 81% of Obama supporters. 50% of Obama supporters called themselves very enthusiastic about their candidate, but only 13% of McCain supporters feel the same way.

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McCain and Obama are tied with white voters at 39%. It is no surprise that voters prefer Obama on the issues of the economy and healthcare, but the real shocker is that voters support his tax plan over McCain’s. The only issue that McCain leads on is terrorism. The two candidates are tied on the issue of Iraq. Obama leads McCain among women 54%-29%, but McCain has a slight lead with Independents 36%-33%.

This poll confirms the results of a Newsweek Poll released over the weekend that found Obama leading McCain by 15 points. The Republicans have big problems here. They are up against a great candidate, while their own party rank and file is apathetic about their nominee. This might normally be enough to cost any party an election, but when you throw in George W. Bush’s 77% disapproval rating, and McCain’s willingness to follow Bush’s policies, what is developing here is a perfect recipe for a big Obama win.

LA Times Article

Bloomberg Article