It is important to not over-read the Jharkhand result, which the Opposition will be tempted to do. It is equally important not to brush aside the loud and clear message that the tribal-dominated state has delivered the BJP Who would have thought that only six months into its second term, with 303 Lok Sabha seats under its belt, BJP would lose Jharkhand where it had got 11of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in May? This defeat comes after allowing victory to slip out of its hands in Maharashtra, and just making it in Haryana with the help of a newbie party.Parties are known to become complacent in their second term. This seems to be happening to BJP. It enacted the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, taking this controversial step at a time when the country is grappling with a serious economic slowdown.The message of Jharkhand goes beyond the state. It shows that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may no longer be able to make up for the lack of popularity of BJP’s state leaderships. The party had pressed him into service in Jharkhand, realising the considerable resentment brewing against chief minister Raghubar Das. It did not work.Jharkhand showed once again that people are making careful electoral choices, depending on the alternatives available to them, and they are making a distinction between Centre and state. BJP’s 2014 experiment — when it had fielded several CMs who did not belong to the politically dominant communities, such as Devendra Fadnavis, a non-Maratha in Maharashtra, M L Khattar, a non-Jat in Haryana, and Raghubar Das, a non-tribal in Jharkhand — is also losing its novelty.With Modi’s appeal cutting across castes, the party had then cocked a snook at what it called ‘caste-based politics’. But it was part of a carefully crafted strategy to consolidate the ‘others’ in its favour (non-Jats in Haryana, non-tribals in Jharkhand, etc). Jharkhand — like Haryana and Maharashtra — has shown that this experiment is no longer working.Anger had started to build among tribals against Das from day one. His attempt to change tenancy laws in Santhal Parganas and Chota Nagpur for commercial use of tribal land created a backlash. So did his high-handed functioning, which alienated even his colleagues, one of them defeating him by contesting as an independent.The most serious setback for BJP is the loss of tribal support, considering the work RSS had put in for decades to win tribals over. In Jharkhand, tribals comprise 26% of the population.BJP won only two of the 28 seats reserved for scheduled tribes (STs) this time, down from 11 in 2014. BJP’s loss is the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s (JMM) gain. With Congress , it managed to win 25 of these seats. The loss of tribal support could have a ripple effect beyond Jharkhand. Disaffection among dalits, tribals and minorities may go on to strengthen Opposition politics in the days to come.The fourth message coming out of Jharkhand is the criticality of alliances. This is as true for the Opposition as it is for BJP today. It is clear that had the BJP gone with All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), its ally of 20 years, it would have fared better. But having burned its fingers in Maharashtra, with pre-poll ally Shiv Sena jumping ship, it calculated that even if it fell short of numbers, it could always tie up with these former allies after the polls to form a government, rather than part with a large number of seats to them.The dichotomy between BJP gaining strength nationally and losing ground at the state level is really not so surprising. The more the party strengthens, the greater the insecurity of its regional allies at the state level, as they begin to fear for their existence, and look the other side for survival. It was this that was at the heart of the BJP-Shiv Sena conflict in Maharashtra.Undoubtedly, economic slowdown is also impinging on people’s lives that much more in the last six months, and is determining electoral choices.In Jharkhand, local issues trumped the national narrative put out by Modi and home minister Amit Shah, who focused on infiltration from Pakistan, construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, suspension of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, and bringing in the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). But it would not be accurate to conclude that Jharkhand’s verdict is, say, a rejection of CAA.This time, the Opposition got its narrative and strategy right in Jharkhand. It focused on bread-and-butter issues troubling people. It forged a gathbandhan that was effective, with Congress agreeing to be a junior partner, as it did in Maharashtra.The party, however, has a long way to go, for people are looking more at regional parties, than the Grand Old Party, as the alternative to BJP at the state level. (This is, however, not a formula likely to work in the forthcoming Delhi elections, with Congress unlikely to play second fiddle to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).) And the alliance had a clear leader in Hemant Soren for Jharkhand CM.