Provided in the first attachment are the OSCAR plots of equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents centered on Nov 11th, which show that (a) the NECC (North Equatorial Countercurrent) is still flowing anomalously stronger than normal (from west to east) across much of the equatorial Pacific, except in the eastern Pacific where it's near normal, and (b) the eastern Pacific portion of the SEC (South Equatorial Current) has strengthened some since last week with anomalies in that region indicating a stronger than normal east to west flow. During an El Nino event, relaxed trades and/or westerly winds/anomalies typically cause the NECC to strengthen and the SEC to weaken (El Nino configuration). This allows warm surface water in the western equatorial Pacific to migrate/slosh towards the east and pile up in the eastern Pacific. The opposite is true during La Nina. NOTE: The NECC is usually located just north of the equator and near the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), and flows from west to east. The SEC is usually located pretty much right on the equator to about 20S and flows from east to west. The current configuration is suggestive of mostly a weak El Nino other than whats occurring in the eastern equatorial Pacific.



The second attachment using OSCAR plots from 1997 (top), 2009 (center), and 2006 (bottom) is meant as a rough example only of how equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents might appear during El Nino events of different strengths. All three examples are from early/mid November. The scale showing the strength of means and anomalies for 1997 is slightly different from that of the scale used for 2006 and 2009 (but not enough to make a large difference). There's no way to fix that but in this case I don’t see it mattering all that much. One can still get the general idea.



wili,



If the “2014 El Nino?” thread had never existed, I likely would not have have found the Arctic sea ice forum/community. I came across that thread (and this forum) back in early April while searching for info related to the possibly unfolding El Nino event of 2014. After lurking and just reading the posts for a few weeks, I quickly became hooked, and had to become a member. I've enjoyed being a part of that thread and have learned so much. Becoming a member of the Arctic sea ice forum has opened my eyes up to how serious climate change and global warming really is. I can't be the only viewer out there who has been impacted this way by the Arctic sea ice forum. Thank you wili for both El Nino threads, Neven for this forum, and all the members who have had a profound impact on my life (seriously)!