Candidates for the Rantau by-election (from left) BN's Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, PH's Dr S. Streram, independent candidates Mohd Nor Yassin and Malar Rajaram pose for a group picture March 30, 2019. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa

KUALA LUMPUR, April 11 — Barisan Nasional (BN) will likely win the Rantau race because of a strong coordinated campaign and its popular candidate Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, Ilham Centre said.

In a statement, the research outfit pointed out that its survey among 396 respondents in Rantau from April 6 to 10 also found that voters were unhappy with Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) choice of candidate as Dr S. Streram is virtually unknown in the state.

The survey also found that there has been an over-reliance by PKR and PH on Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for the Rantau campaign, while “minimal” campaign efforts by other PH allies did not bring about any major impact to voters.

“BN’s candidate, Mohamad Hasan or Tok Mat is seen to have been accepted by all segments of voters including Indians and Chinese.

“His track record as mentri besar, Rantau state assemblyman for three terms and being a local from Rembau gives him a big advantage in this by-election, as seen by 87.4 per cent of respondents who agree with this factor,” said Ilham Centre.

The statement added that 81.6 per cent of respondents believed that Mohamad possessed better “credibility” than PKR’s Dr Streram. Only 17.7 per cent of respondents said they will back the PKR man.

“Dr S. Streram is seen by respondents as not being a local and an unknown. Even Rembau PKR Branch chief R Tanggam is more popular,” Ilham Centre said.

Results of the survey also showed a shift of support from PH back to BN, with 24.5 per cent of respondents saying they were no longer supporting the former for this by-election. This comparison analysis was made based on the Rembau scoresheet for the 14th general election.

“The shift in votes is because of Tok Mat’s credibility factor (81.6 per cent), issues affecting cost of living (66.7 per cent), PH’s failure in carrying out their manifesto promises (65.4 per cent), unsatisfactory state government performance (50.8 per cent), and the perception among Malays that PH has failed to defend Malays and Islam (85.6 per cent),” Ilham Centre said.

It added that the remaining 48 hours will be crucial for PH as BN’s win of the state seat is almost guaranteed as of right now. Voters will go to the polls on Saturday.

“The campaign in Rantau will be focused on how far PH can retain the Indian and Chinese votes obtained in the last election and at the same time steal at least 20 per cent of Malay votes.

“If this fails, BN will come out as the winner with a comfortable majority.”

The Rantau state constituency in Negri Sembilan, spread over 15,960.74 hectares, has 20,926 registered electors comprising 20,804 ordinary voters, 118 early voters and four absentee voters.

It is a four-cornered contest in Rantau involving Dr Streram, Mohamad, and independent candidates R. Malarvizhi and Mohd Nor Yasin.