This will likely be my last update, as I feel confident enough about the margins in these races to make some calls. First, what’s left to count:

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 471,011 Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 333,155 Total Estimated Left to Count: 137,856

As I suspected, counting appears to be a little slower this round compared to previous updates, as only 18K votes have been counted today, vs upwards of 40K earlier in the week.

Let’s see how the races have changed:

**Analysis**

CA-39

As you can see, Cisneros is continuing to make some modest gains in the OC part of this district. What was once a 8.6K vote lead here days after the election has now effectively been cut in half. To make matters worse for Kim, the LA portion of this district updated earlier today, and overall district results show Cisneros with a healthy 3,020 vote margin (50.69–49.31). Because LA has been coming in strongly for Cisneros, and OC has been coming in moderately well for Cisneros (where it should be favorable for Kim), I am now going to call this race for Cisneros. Most outlets have been calling CA races lately when candidates reach a 6K+ margin, but I think I’m going to stick my neck out on this one simply due to the dynamics at play and how it voted for Clinton in 2016 by 8.6 points. D Gain

CA-45

The AP called this race last night, and I’m about ready to do the same. Porter’s margin of 8K votes is pretty substantial and makes up for the slightly stronger R presence here than in CA-39 (This district voted for Clinton by 5.4 points in 2016). With so many ballots left to count still out, I would not be surprised if Porter reaches an eyepopping 12–15K margin when everything is said and done. D Gain

So when all is said and done, this is how much Orange County has changed in just one election:

Special thanks to reddit user Clemario for this great map

The dramatic changes in Orange County have just started, as I’m sure less high profile offices within the county are going to be targeted by state dems, so buckle in Orange County residents, the political transition is just getting started.

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