Christian Schneider

Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel

Amid the incessant din of election-year punditry and prognostication, one fact reigns supreme: Republicans vote for Republicans and Democrats vote for Democrats.

It is an inescapable truth that informs 90% of races; the more members of one party that reside in any given state or district, the better chance a politician of that party will win. It is why America is freckled with "red" and "blue" states and "safe" congressional seats. It is also why American presidential races are typically close, regardless of who the candidates may be.

But 2016 is no typical year. Republicans have nominated a candidate who is only recently and tangentially Republican, and whose staunchest supporters are left to argue he is fit for the presidency only because his Democratic opponent is more unfit.

It has long been clear that Donald Trump's party fluidity almost certainly will spell doom for Republicans in November. Trump hurdled the GOP primary field because he said things politicians could never say — and now Republicans are going to learn the hard way why politicians never say those things. Trump is now the Bruce Willis character in "The Sixth Sense": his candidacy is dead, he just doesn't realize it yet. (Sorry for the spoiler, but c'mon — it's been 17 years.)

The myriad ways Trump's candidacy will fail provide a Rashomon-style buffet of scenarios to contemplate. Even if "Generic Republican" were on the ballot, he or she would be at a distinct electoral disadvantage — Trump's repulsiveness simply accelerates that disadvantage. (If anyone has a black and white "Generic Republican" yard sign, decorated with a UPC bar code, I will happily purchase one.)

As Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post frequently points out, given the GOP's built-in underdog status, Hillary Clinton only needs to win every state Democrats have won in every presidential election since 1992, then add Florida, and she is the winner.

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Perhaps you enjoy talk of battleground states. Well, there's a scenario for you, too. First, pick the six "closest" swing states (VA, NH, IA, OH, FL, NC). Got it? Now understand that New Hampshire excepted, Clinton only has to win one of them in order to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win. (Optional third step for Republicans only: start shotgunning Pabst Blue Ribbon and don't stop until November.)

Lest any Trump supporters seek solace in poll numbers, recent polls have Trump sliding further behind in all the relevant swing states. According to a Ballotpedia battleground poll released last week, Trump trails by 14% in Florida, 4% in Iowa, 10% in North Carolina, 9% in Ohio, and 7% in Virginia.

And what will Trump do to turn these numbers around? Maybe his vice presidential pick will make a big splash?

Not so fast. Trump is reportedly considering names such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as his running mate — meaning the sole qualification Trump seeks in a VP is how much of Trump's boot polish the pick has on his sleeves. Both Gingrich and Christie are among the least popular politicians in America — picking either of them to resurrect a campaign is like going to a doctor for pinkeye and the doctor suggesting you contract jock itch to take your mind off your conjunctivitis.

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This is why some Republicans could make a move to oust Trump at the party's national convention in Cleveland this month, in a desperate attempt to salvage the party's chance at winning in November. But at this point, Trump isn't really a candidate. He is an idea, an ethos. Trump is a primal scream against politicians who didn't listen to voters who now want payback.

Thus, even if the GOP were able to boot Trump from the top of the ticket, "Trumpism" would remain, poisoning the party and dividing its voters. As Thomas Dewey once said of banning communism, "you can't shoot an idea with a gun." And in 2016, Republicans found a way to commit suicide using only the ballot box.

Christian Schneider is a columnist and blogger for the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, where this column first appeared. Follow Christian Schneider on Twitter: @Schneider_CM

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