How come that Farage’s party is now so disliked?

One of the big problems with polling is that what tends to get reported is what fits the media narrative and other numbers can get ignored.

Thus the big news from latest Ipsos-MORI “like/dislike” party and leader ratings was the big fall in Ed Miliband’s personal position which, of course, has been the big political story this summer. This has overshadowed other numbers from the firm about UKIP that might be more interesting from a GE2015 forecasting perspective.

The survey found that 52% of the sample did not like Farage’s party with 25% saying they did – a net of minus 27%. The Tories, by comparison, had 57% not liking with 38% liking – a net of minus 19%. The LD figures were 43% like to 47% dislike while Labour was 49% “like” to 43% “dislike”.

For a party that been surging so fast to be so disliked comes as something of a shock. It suggests that UKIP support won’t be expanding at the same rate as has been experienced in the past year and, indeed, that we might have seen what the ceiling is for now.

Ipsos-MORI party “like/dislike” ratings proved to be one of the indicators that the CON-LAB gap was closing in the final stage of the GE2010 campaign. See here.

The big test for UKIP in the coming nine months will be next May’s elections for the EU parliament. They are still favourites to win most votes but are no longer odds on. As I’ve reported before I am on the Tories at 10/1.

Mike Smithson