Dynasty fantasy football never rests. This is especially true during the madness that has become the NFL free agency period. In the old days, all you had to worry about was one or two of the players on your dynasty rosters moving to new teams in free agency. With trades becoming a regular thing in the NFL, that’s no longer the case.

The Salary Cap Will Not Save You

One thing we used to be able to point to as a source of comfort was dead cap hits. Now we can’t even look to that.

The $16 million in dead cap space incurred by the Giants didn’t stop them from trading away Odell Beckham Jr. (neither did common sense for that matter, but I digress). Antonio Brown forced his way out of Pittsburgh despite the Steelers getting hit with an absurd $21.2 million dead cap hit. If you thought it was safe to buy Blake Bortles in superflex leagues this past offseason because the Jaguars would have to eat $16 million in dead cap space if they cut him, you were proven incorrect. So what can we hold onto as an absolute with the amount of change the league undergoes yearly?

Sell High

For a brief shining moment, Sterling Shepard was the de facto WR1 for the Giants after the Beckham trade. If you bought Shepard based on his ascension, which was based on the situation and not talent, it had to be disappointing when the Giants went ahead and signed Golden Tate just two days later. The upside to the Shepard situation is that he was the WR1 for just two days, a very brief buying window.

If you weren’t able to acquire him within those two days, you were able to end your pursuit quickly before overpaying to acquire him. In his three seasons, working backward, Shepard has finished as the WR34, WR21, and the WR42, respectively. This makes him an excellent ancillary piece to your roster, but he is not the type of player to build a roster around.

Gus Edwards came out of nowhere to break out in the final seven games last season. Averaging 11.38 fantasy points per game, he sprinkled in a top-12 weekly finish, two top-24 weekly finishes, and another top-36 weekly finish. Based on Edwards’ lack of draft capital (he was an undrafted free agent), college production, and underwhelming physical metrics, you should have sold high on him as soon as possible.

Using the DLF trade finder tool, we see he was traded for Jared Cook, a 2019 second-round rookie pick, and two 2019 second-round rookie picks, among other deals in December 2018. Compare those trades (in an admittedly limited sample size) since Mark Ingram signed with the Ravens and you see a stark contrast in his current value. He’s been traded for Adam Humphries (I actually like this trade), used as a throw-in to move into the back end of a devy depleted first-round rookie draft, and for the 4.01 in a 2019 rookie draft. Trading Edwards in December would have given you an excellent profit while waiting until March 2019 essentially gained you nothing from his value spike.

Situations Change, Talent Doesn’t

Evan Engram finished the 2017 season, his rookie year, as the TE4, averaging 11.6 points per game playing a majority of the season without Beckham in the lineup. His ADP sat at 39 in April of 2018. The 2018 season didn’t go as well as for Engram as he missed five games with injuries, and struggled to score when Beckham also played. In four games without OBJ in the lineup, Engram scored nearly 16 points per game compared to just nine points a game when they played together. With questions surrounding Engram’s ability to be a high-end fantasy asset with Beckham also on the field, his ADP dropped to 65 in February 2019 DFF mock drafts.

Focusing on his situation caused his draft capital to fall 26 picks, over two full rounds in drafts. Did Engram’s abilities decrease in one season? No, Engram was still a physical freak, who held high NFL Draft pedigree, insane college production, and a top-four fantasy finish under his belt. But his perceived value did change because of concerns with his current situation. With Beckham now in Cleveland, Engram’s situation has improved, and he’s already shown the ability to capitalize on that opportunity in the past.

Before the 2018 NFL Draft, James Washington was my second-ranked rookie wide receiver behind D.J. Moore. After the Steelers selected him in the second round, he dropped down in my rankings, and his ADP reflected that the market as a whole moved him down as well. In March 2018 DLF rookie mock drafts, Washington was the WR4 and 1.10 rookie pick overall. After the NFL Draft, he dropped to the WR6 and fell to the 2.02 in rookie mock drafts.

Being drafted by Pittsburgh was seen as a bad landing spot, even though they invested significant draft capital in him using the 60th pick overall by taking him in the second round. Because Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster were ahead of him on the depth chart, it appeared that Washington was blocked. Less than a year later, Brown is in Oakland and Washington is in prime position to ascend to a starting wide receiver role in a pass-happy offense.

Moving players up based on their landing spots is also a terrible idea. Samaje Perine was drafted by Washington in the 2017 NFL Draft, and many in the fantasy community felt it was an ideal situation for him to succeed. This caused his ADP to rise to 1.12 in May rookie mock drafts. What these drafters overlooked was the fact was Perine was a Day Three pick, and that those picks rarely hit in either real football or fantasy football.

Perine was predictably mediocre, and Washington immediately drafted his replacement in 2018 with the selection of Derrius Guice. When a team doesn’t invest an early pick on a player, they quickly move on when that player doesn’t outperform his draft stock. Pay more attention to where in the draft a player is selected as opposed to which team picks them, and you’ll find success in rookie drafts.

A player’s current situation and which team they are drafted by are important factors when drafting or trading for players. Just keep in mind those should not be the only two factors you consider. As this wild offseason has reiterated, talent trumps everything else. Thank you for reading.



Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Shane Manila is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Shane.