2018 Super Tuesday Preview, Part 1: California

This week, we are kicking off our preview of next week’s June 5th Super Tuesday contests. Because there’s just so much to get to, we are breaking the preview up into two parts. And on this 31st day of May, it’s only fitting we start with the 31st state. Today we are previewing California, which accounts for about half the notable races next week, with the other 7 Super Tuesday States (AL, IA, MS, MT, NJ, NM, SD) coming on Monday.

Click Here for California legislative previews!

CA-Gov : The biggest statewide race in California is for the open Governor’s seat; incumbent Jerry Brown (D) is termed-out. 27 (!) candidates are in the race, though there are only seven that are notable, five Democrats and two Republicans.

LG Gavin Newsom (D) is the clear front-runner in the race. Newsom has had a long history in politics, going from San Francisco Mayor last decade to LG in 2010; he was initially considered a prospective gubernatorial candidate eight years ago before deferring to Brown and settling for the #2 job. Pegging Newsom ideologically really depends on your context: in San Francisco, Newsom was a “moderate”, by California standards he is an establishment liberal, but he would be considered a bold progressive in just about any other state. Newsom became nationally-known as SF Mayor when he pulled a stunt to issue same-sex marriage licenses against state law in the mid-2000s, though he has mostly sat on the sidelines as LG, biding his time waiting for this year. He has been somewhat teflon for scandals, with his admission that he had an affair with a subordinate a decade ago and his questionably-close ties to a billionaire oil heir, who has served as a political patron, not making many waves. Ideologically, Newsom is pretty much the caricature of the California upscale establishment progressive, with a hard-line leftism on social issues and a left-wing economics more driven by love for pet projects and union influence than zeal for neo-Marxist redistributionism. In California this year with #resistance enthusiasm through the roof, that’s a very good niche to occupy. Aide by strong establishment and union backing, Newsom has had a strong lead in polls of the race from day one. He is considered nearly certain to advance and will likely be favored in the general regardless of his opponent.

The question of who will take the second slot is a very thorny one with significant partisan implications. If a second Dem advances with Newsom, that could create a competitive general – but also lead to a risk of cratering GOP turnout, imperiling the state’s multiple vulnerable Republican congressional seats. As a result, there has been an effort by Republicans to consolidate support around one of the two major GOP contenders.

The beneficiary of that move is businessman, ex-Cook County IL GOP chair, and vanity 2008 presidential candidate John Cox (R). On first pass, Cox would seem to be a very strange vessel for Republicans’ establishment enthusiasm, as the most apt word to describe him would be gadfly. Cox ran for congress and local office three times in suburban Chicago in the early 2000s, never coming close to victory. He then ran a vanity presidential campaign in 2008, appearing on several primary ballots and taking .02% of the vote, after which he left Illinois for San Diego and largely went dark from politics. Cox jumped into this race on a platform that included some gadflyish planks like expanding the state legislature to thousands of members. But Cox does have one big asset – cash. Cox has self-funded over $4M, which has allowed him to raise his name recognition and pull ahead of his main rival in early polls. That standing created positive feedback, with Cox getting more establishment support – most notably an endorsement from Trump (in spite of the fact that Cox openly admits he voted for Gary Johnson two years ago). Overall, Cox has been running as an establishment to slightly moderate conservative, and has progressively dropped the gadfly causes as the campaign has wore on.

State Rep. Travis Allen (R) of Huntington Beach is Cox’s GOP rival. Allen has a much stronger Republican pedigree than Cox. An antiestablishment conservative, Allen upset an establishment favorite in an R-on-R general to win an upscale legislative seat in suburban southwest Orange County in 2012. He has been one of the most ideological conservatives in the legislature and notably was a key proponent of the gas tax repeal ballot measure that is the CAGOP’s main thrust this year. However, unlike Cox, Allen is not personally wealthy, which is a major handicap against California’s absurd expensiveness. His harder-edged conservatism was also somewhat worrying to establishment figures concerned about the impact in swing districts. Allen does have institutional support from the more idegolocial conservative wing of the party. But in recent weeks he has fallen clearly behind Cox in polls, and thus looks like a long-shot to take second.

Instead, Cox’s main competition for second place is a Democrat, ex-LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). Villaraigosa, who was mayor of LA from 2005 to 2013, has high name recognition from that tenure. He also has strong establishment support, especially in the southern part of the state. He is running as a more moderate liberal than Newsom, particularly on education issues; Villaraigosa has extensive backing from charter school interests. He is also running on a Jerry Brown-like platform of calling out some of the most unworkable issues posed by the state’s unchecked liberalism. That position could make him a real threat to Newsom in the general election if he makes it there. But Villaraigosa has liabilities of his own: like Newsom, he had a well-publicized affair a decade ago, and his Hispanic SoCal base has been very low-turnout, especially in primaries. Villaragiosa has a chance to advance, but the Republican establishment’s drive to coalesce the GOP vote around Cox seems more likely than not to push him into third.

Treasurer John Chiang (D) is concluding a third term in statewide office, being elected Treasurer in 2014 without substantive opposition after two terms as Controller, preceded by a decade on the Board of Equalization. He has received praise for his competent management of the state’s finances, and could have a base in the state’s sizeable Asian-American community. However, Chiang’s campaign has never really caught fire, as he is not regarded as a particularly engaging campaigner and his green-eyeshades platform is not a great fit for a Dem base fired up this year over mostly social issues. Chiang has also struggled to find an ideological niche, with his somewhat heterodox platform going far-left on some issues like single-payer healthcare and more moderate on other left-wing priorities. Chiang will probably take a significant vote share, probably slightly more from Villaraigosa than Newsom. But he has been polling well behind Villaraigosa and Cox in the race for second and is a long-shot to advance.

Ex-Superintendent Delaine Eastin (D) is the most liberal candidate in the field, which is really saying something for this race. Eastin jumped back into politics for this race after being largely off the scene since terming out in 2002. She has been running mostly on education issues, and furthermore running as an unapologetic union lackey and economic ultra-leftist. Eastin does have support from some far-left corners of the state establishment, but her campaign has never gained much traction or fundraising. Newsom is also progressive enough that there isn’t a lot of room to his left even in California; thus, Eastin is likely to take only a low-single-digit vote share of those who find Newsom not leftist enough.

2014 CA-21 congressional nominee and Hillary campaign operative Amanda Renteria (D) made a late entry into this race to great bemusement. Renteria, who was previously CoS to Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), was a highly-touted congressional recruit four years ago. However, she fell flat even by the poor standards of a 2014 Democrat, losing a Dem-leaning district by 15 points. If there ever was a candidate whose campaign can be described as answering a question no one asked, it’s Renteria. She is running as an establishment liberal without major ideological differentiation from her rivals, hails from the D-vote-poor Central Valley, and entered the race too late to secure major fundraising. A victory for her would probably be finishing ahead of all the non-serious Some Dudes, which is not entirely a given; if her vote share is significant, it probably comes at Villaraigosa’s expense.

There are twenty (!) other non-serious Some Dudes on the ballot, who will likely have negligible impact other than making it difficult to find the serious contenders on the ballot. Overall, CW is betting on Newsom and Cox to advance, though there is a real chance Villaraigosa could snag Cox’s slot. If Cox advances, Newsom will win the general without breaking a sweat, while if Villaraigosa moves on, the general will be competitive, but potentially present catastrophic effects for downballot Republicans. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-Sen : Thirty-two (!) candidates are seeking the Senate seat in California, 10 Democrats, 11 Republicans, and 11 third-party and Indie candidates. However, there really are only two with a decent chance to move on barring something seriously unexpected, so this race is basically a straw poll.

Incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D) is seeking a fifth full term. At age 84, Feinstein was widely expected to retire, but she instead decided to run again. A mainstream liberal with slight moderate tendencies (especially on foreign policy), Feinstein has been a force on the California political scene for decades, and has universal name recognition. She has also been a historically good fit for her state, with a less polarizing style than her more liberal colleagues, Barbara Boxer (D) and now Kamala Harris (D). Feinstein has not faced a close race since 1994 or a serious Republican challenger since 2000. However, as her state has moved left, Feinstein has now found herself on the right side of the state Dem party, and her major challenge this year comes from the left rather than right.

State Senate Pres. Kevin DeLeon (D) is challenging Feinstein from the left. By California standards, DeLeon is an establishment liberal, though that would put him as a bold progressive in just about any other state. He has been a major insider figure in the passing of #resistance catnip bills in the legislature. DeLeon has long been known as extremely ambitious, and that ambition has driven him to take on this uphill run. He has the backing of a significant minority of the state’s Dem establishment, most notably from billionaire environmental and left-wing activist Tom Steyer, but also from SEIU and the Nurses’ Union. He also has a strong rapport with the grassroots, which enabled him to surprisingly outpoll Feinstein at the state convention and come close to clinching the official state party endorsement from himself. However, DeLeon faces daunting hurdles: he is little-known statewide, and has had poor fundraising, and he has also been hit for his handling of a sexual harassment scandal around his roommate, ex-State Sen. Tony Mendoza (D). It looks like DeLeon will overcome his first hurdle though: beating out his little known rivals to take second place and earn five more months to make his case against Feinstein.

None of the eleven Republicans have even cracked $100K in fundraising. The best-known among them is auto dealer Rocky De La Fuente (R), who has a semi-credible resume of business experience in San Diego. However, he is mostly known as a comically non-serious perennial candidate, as he runs for office in multiple states nationwide under multiple party banners. The other ten Republicans are total unknowns at best. As a result, none of them would seem to have a particularly strong chance of coalescing the GOP vote to beat out DeLeon for second place barring something incredibly unexpected. In the general, Feinstein’s name recognition and potential crossover support likely mean she starts out as a strong favorite over DeLeon, though there is a chance DeLeon could make the race competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

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CA-LG : With high visibility but little responsibility, the separately-elected LG’s office is an enticing target for politicians looking to climb the ladder. As such, there are 11 candidates squaring off for the open seat that Gavin Newsom (D) is vacating to run for Governor, seven of them notable.

Ex-Ambassador Eleni Kounalakis (D), who served as Ambassador to Hungary under Obama, has been the best-funded candidate, thanks to massive self-funding. Kounalakis has additionally been receiving outside support through PACs funded by her father, a wealthy builder, which has raised some eyebrows. She also has strong establishment support, with two notable endorsements from Sen. Kamala Harris (D) and Pelosi. She is running as an establishment liberal.

State Sen. Ed Hernandez (D) of the San Gabriel Valley has the strongest political resume in the field and was initially considered the front-runner. Hernandez, an establishment liberal, has strong support from labor, as well as a sizeable chunk of the state’s establishment (particularly from around his native LA area). However, unlike his major rivals, Henandez is not personally wealthy. Additionally, the LA area tends to punch below its weight in statewide primaries. Hernandez, an optometrist, has also drawn the ire of the state medical association for his efforts to make it easier for non-physician health professionals to treat patients; they have made defeating him a priority.

Ex-Ambassador Jeff Bleich (D) is also a well-funded establishment liberal. A high-powered attorney, Bleich served as a university regent and Ambassador to Australia under Obama. He also has strong establishment connections, particularly around his native Bay area. Bleich is probably the most upscale-focused of the three candidates, concentrating on social liberal priorities that could be #resistance catnip this year.

The fourth Democrat, attorney Cameron Gharabiklou (D), seems like a longer-shot to advance as he has relatively little money and few connections. However, he is running a serious campaign on a left-wing platform and could draw a significant vote share. Among the Democrats, Kounalakis looks like a very slight favorite over Hernandez and Bleich, but any of the three could advance.

The likeliest candidate in the field to snag a general election spot is a Republican, businessman Cole Harris (R). Harris, an importer-exporter , was a total political unknown until parachuting into this race at the filing deadline. He has become a factor through $2M in self-funding. That money has also earned him the state GOP’s official endorsement. As none of his three Republican rivals have raised enough to run credible campaigns, Harris is likely to take the bulk of the GOP vote.

Economics Professor Lydia Ortega (R) has a compelling biography and was getting some minor buzz before Harris entered the race. However, she has not raised nearly enough to run a credible statewide campaign and Republicans hoping to avoid a top-two lockout have largely passed her over in favor of Harris. Two other Some Dues are running on the GOP side; they seem non-serious and unlikely to draw more than scattered votes.

The race also notable for having one of the nation’s more serious third-party candidacies. Ex-Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin (G) is a Green Party member who is nominally running as an Indie for this race. McLaughlin was one of the nation’s most successful Green Party candidates, winning two terms as mayor of Richmond, an industrial city of 100K in the East Bay. She was known as mayor for her battles with her city’s Chevron oil refinery. McLaughlin has significant left-wing support, most notably an endorsement from Our Revolution, and is running on a far-left neo-communist platform. Her lack of a Democratic label probably makes her a long-shot, but in a crowded field where 15% could realistically be enough to advance, McLaughlin might have an outside chance at the second slot.

Overall, it seems likely that Harris will advance with one of Kounalakis, Hernandez, or Bleich, with Kounalakis having a the best shot by a hair, though there is a chance McLaughlin could sneak through as well. Whichever Democrat advances will likely be a very strong favorite in the general due to the terrain of the state, though if Harris and McLaughlin advance in a fluke the general might be competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-SoS : Eight candidates are seeking the SoS seat, five of them worth a mention.

Incumbent SoS Alex Padilla (D) is a mainstream liberal considered something of a rising star on California’s Dem bench, and the prohibitive favorite for re-election. Padilla has an intra-party challenger in paramedic Ruben Major (D), who is running a semi-serious campaign on a left-wing platform, but seems far out of his depth in running a statewide race in the enormous state.

Most likely to advance to a general with Padilla is attorney and 2012 State Senate candidate Mark Meuser (R). Meuser is a mainstream conservative and has the state party endorsement. The other GOP candidate is not running a serious campaign, but could still draw a significant number of low-info scattered votes. Finally, one third party candidate is worth a mention; ex-Santa Monica Mayor Michael Feinstein (G) seems credible enough to take a few far-left votes, though he probably won’t rise much above asterisk level. There are also three other totally non-serious Some Dude third-party candidates.

In the general, Padilla will be a prohibitive favorite over Meuser thanks to the lean of the state and his incumbency. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-AG : Two Republicans and two Democrats are facing off for the AG’s seat.

Appointed incumbent Xavier Becerra (D) was somewhat surprisingly tapped for this seat to replace now-Sen. Kamala Harris (D) two years ago. Becerra, a former longtime House member from downtown LA who steadily rose through the ranks of Dem leadership, was considered a surprise choice, as he was thought to be the obvious choice for Dem leader when the current shambling shuffleboarders atop the Dem House pillar moved on. However, frustrated with his lack of ability to move up the ranks, Becerra decamped for this office. He has been an high-profile liberal activist as AG, being arguably the most aggressive AG nationwide in his anti-Trump lawsuit activity. Becerra has strong support from Gov. Brown and a majority of the state establishment, has had strong fundraising, and thus seems almost guaranteed to take first place and a general election spot. However, he has been criticized for unapologetically politicizing his office, to a degree even a significant number of liberal Californians have noticed and found unsavory – most notably attempting to ram through transparently deceptive ballot language to bias voters against the gas tax repeal. Becerra’s ambition to use the office as a stepping stone is also painfully transparent.

Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones (D) was the big loser from the Becerra appointment. Jones had begun scoping out a run for this race immediately after winning a second term in 2014, and decided to continue on in the race against a high-profile incumbent after Becerra was appointed. Like Becerra, Jones is an establishment liberal with high name recognition from his two statewide runs, and has fundraised very well. Jones has a strong minority of establishment support, which comes mostly, though not exclusively, from the less liberal side of the party. His platform focuses on promising to pay more attention to the nonpartisan nuts-and-bolts duties of the office that Becerra has been accused of neglecting. If Jones makes it to the general, he will likely be a formidable contender, as he seems a decent bet to get Republicans’ choice by default. However, he runs the risk of being boxed out by Becerra’s higher profile and GOP base voters, and falling behind one of the two Republicans.

Republicans have two little-known contenders. Retired judge Steven Bailey (R) is the only candidate with government experience, and has the official party endorsement. However, he has had multiple unflattering headlines, as he is currently under investigation for multiple conflict-of-interest violations in his judicial career.

The other Republican, attorney Eric Early (R), is also running a somewhat serious campaign as a more Trumpist candidate. Neither stands any chance running statewide against California’s tough terrain. The big question is if one of them can coalesce the GOP vote enough to beat out Jones for second place and render the general election all but moot. Right now I’d say that’s about a coin-flip. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-Treas : Two Democrats and two Republicans are seeking the open Treasurer’s seat that incumbent John Chiang (D) is giving up to run for Governor.

Board of Equalization member Fiona Ma (D) is the most politically-experienced candidate. A former State Rep. from San Francisco and establishment liberal, Ma has nearly unanimous support from the state establishment. That means she is the clear favorite for the post and seems all but certain to take a runoff spot.

Hillary campaign aide and Gov. Brown aide Vivek Viswanathan (D) is Ma’s intraparty rival. Viswanathan is also an establishment liberal, perhaps a hair to the left of Ma. But in contrast to Ma’s long political pedigree, he emphasizing his youth (he is 31) and policy chops. Viswanathan is also following a well-worn tradition by running across the state to earn free media. His efforts have borne some fruit, as he has received some favorable writeups in liberal publications, newspaper endorsements, and national buzz. However, Viswanathan has no name rec and essentially no institutional support from the state establishment. If he can get another five months to make his case, Viswanathan may have a chance to upset Ma in the general. But first getting past two Republicans will be a significant hurdle for him.

Neither of the two Republicans are running a particularly serious campaign. Cudahy Mayor Jack Guerrero (R) has the stronger electoral resume. Guerrero, an accountant, has won two terms as Mayor in his deep-blue, monolithically Hispanic LA slumburb. He has a compelling biography and some institutional support, but he has essentially not fundraised, which may mean he loses out on GOP votes to a rival with higher name recognition.

2014 nominee Greg Conlon (R) is the other Republican in the race. Conlon has a semi-credible resume as an accountant and former state board member in the 90s. But he is more notable as a perennial candidate who ran non-serious bids for US Senate in 2012 and 2016 and State House in 2010, getting the GOP nomination for this seat four years ago by default. He has had near-zero fundraising, but residual name rec from four years ago could allow him to take second place.

There is also a left-wing third party Some Dude in the race. Overall, the big question is if Vinswanathan will advance to the general or if one of the two Republicans can make it into second and give Ma a free ride. Right now it looks more likely than not Vinswanathan will fall short of at least one Republican, but if he did take second place he could have a chance to make the general competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-Comp : Incumbent Controller Betty Yee (D) has been a generally non-controversial mainstream liberal in office. This race is essentially a straw poll as she has only one serious opponent.

Yee will head to a general with ex-Anaheim councilman Konstantinos Roditis (R), who is running on an antiestablishment conservative platform. Roditis is running a credible campaign but has little chance against an incumbent in the general against the state’s terrain. A third-party candidate will be eliminated in the first round. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-Ins : Three serious candidates are seeking the open Insurance Commissioner seat that incumbent Dave Jones (D) is giving up to run for AG (in a quirk due to the office being set up at the same time term limits were being enacted by separate referendums, Insurance Commissioner is the only office in state government with no term limits). This race is notable for having one of the best chances nationwide to elect an Independent.

Ex-Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (I) served in this office from 2006 to 2010 as a Republican and is now seeking to get his old job back. A former Silicon Valley exec, Poizner won the office swimming against the 2006 wave, holding it for one generally-well-received term. He gave it up to run for Governor in 2010, where his campaign was swamped by Meg Whitman’s greater wealth in the GOP primary. Poizner ran to the right in that race, but has swung back to the center for this bid, emphasizing his non-partisan competence in office. He is also the only candidate in the race opposed to single-payer healthcare, which could get him support from moderate Dems. With no Republican on the ballot, Poizner’s personal wealth and name recognition likely means he can coalesce the GOP vote. He is thus near-certain to take one of the general election slots.

State Sen. Ricardo Lara (D) was the architect of the unworkable state single-payer healthcare push in the last legislative session. Lara has support from most of the state’s Dem establishment and is running as a staunch bold progressive even by California standards. Lara is definitely favored to take the second slot in the general. However, his single payer push was controversial even among the state’s Democrats, and his grandstanding on the issue has earned him some enemies. Thus, they have formed a base of support for his rival.

The third candidate in the race, physician Asif Mahmood (D), has emerged as a surprisingly serious contender. A Pakistani immigrant, Mahmood was previously running an asterisk-level LG bid before switching to this race. In spite of not having obvious connections, he has managed to secure a sizeable minority of support from the state’s Dem establishment, and has fundraised well for a novice candidate. The ideological differences between Mahmood and Lara are slight, as Mahmood is also running as a staunch bold progressive; Mahmood’s main selling point is his biography and outsider status.

There is also a left-wing third-party candidate in the race. Overall, Lara looks like a slight favorite for the second slot, but Mahmood pulling the upset would not be a huge surprise. With Poizner in the race and without the shackles of the GOP label, this is probably the best chance for a non-Democrat to win statewide in the Golden State this year, though straight-ticket votes probably mean the Dem is still slightly favored. The primary results will be informative to suggest how much of a chance Poizner has in November. RRH Elections last rated this general election as Safe D, though that was before Poizner’s entry.

CA-Supt : Four candidates are seeking the formally-nonpartisan State Superintendent post. However, this is mostly a straw poll as there are only two serious contenders, who break down as a clear contrast between education reform and teachers’ union candidates. The seat is open as union-friendly incumbent Tom Torlakson (D) is termed-out and retiring.

2014 candidate Marshall Tuck (D) is back for a second try at this office, after taking 48% of the vote four years ago. Tuck is a former charter school exec in the LA area who has been a favorite of outside ed-reform interests. He is running on a fairly typical upscale moderate-liberal education reform platform, and has some support from the state Dems’ moderate wing.

State Rep. Tony Thurmond (D) is Tuck’s main rival. A liberal Democratic legislator from the bluer-than-blue Oakland/Berkeley area, Thurmond has been a reliable union ally. He is running on a very typical pro-union, anti-education reform platform. Thurmond has the lions’ share of Dem establishment support and the official Dem endorsement.

The two other candidates seem largely non-serious and will be eliminated. The general election between Tuck and Thurmond is likely to be highly competitive and a titanic clash between unions and ed-reform interests. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-BoE : The Board of Equalization is a 5-member board that previously controlled most of the state’s taxation power. However, last year, legislation was passed that removed much of its power after an audit showed it was rife with corruption problems. The board consists of 4 elected members by district and the State Controller. All four district seats are open this year, as two members are termed out and two are running for higher office (Diane Harkey (R) for CA-49 and Fiona Ma (D) for Treasurer). Historically the 4 districts have been divided into two strongly Dem seats and two strongly Republican ones, though the Republican seats may be somewhat shaky this year.

CA-BoE-1 covers the entire Central Valley, as well as large chunks of northern LA and San Bernardino Counties. It is historically Republican-leaning. Four candidates are facing off. The lone Democrat in the field, Ceres city attorney Tom Hallinan (D), is certain to advance, though he isn’t running a particularly serious campaign, he could win on a Dem wave. Three Republicans are vying for the other spot. State Sen. Ted Gaines (R) of suburban Sacramento is well-known as he ran statewide for Insurance Commissioner four years ago, and has the strongest establishment support. Another 2014 statewide candidate is ex-California City Mayor and 2014 Controller candidate David Evans (R), who took 21% in the statewide Controller primary four years ago and could have residual name recognition; he is also emphasizing his CPA credentials. Finally, ex-State Rep. Connie Conway (R) could also have significant name rec in her home area around Visalia-Tulare. Overall Gaines is favored to advance, though Evans or Conway taking the second spot is very possible.

CA-BoE-2 covers the coastline from Santa Barbara north to Oregon, including the entire Bay Area. It is overwhelmingly Democratic. There are three Dems and one Republican, meaning it’s an open question whether the lone R, realtor Mark Burns (R), can snag a spot or whether two Dems will advance. There are two major Democrats in the race. San Francisco councilwoman Malia Cohen (D) is running as a staunch liberal. Cohen has the strongest establishment support, including endorsements from Pelosi and Kamala Harris. She faces a serious rival from the center in State Sen. Cathleen Galgiani (D). Galgiani, who carpetbagged into this seat from Stockton to run, is known as a relative moderate by California Dem standards (which isn’t saying all that much). She has establishment support from the less-liberal side of the party and could get GOP crossover support. The third Dem, Cupertino Mayor Barry Chang (D), looks like a bit of a longer-shot, though he does have some establishment support in the Silicon Valley area that might allow him to surprise. Overall I would bet on Cohen and Burns advancing, though there is a significant chance Galgiani or Chang could upset and snag either spot.

CA-BoE-3 covers Ventura County and most of LA County. It is overwhelmingly Democratic. Six Dems, one Republican, and one Indie are running. That means the Republican, 2014 nominee Rick Marshall (R), is all but certain to snag the first spot on partisan loyalty and then lose the general. The front-runner among the Dems appears to be community college board member Scott Svonkin (D), who is well funded and has the vast majority of the Dem establishment’s support. Two others, Santa Monica Mayor Tony Vazquez (D) and businessman Ben Pak (D) are also running serious campaigns, though Vazquez has faced ethical issues in local office and Pak appears to have little institutional support. Three other Democrats, ex-community college board member Nancy Pearlman (D), attorney Cheryl Turner (D), and former TV reporter Doug Kriegel (D), all seem less serious, but could potentially sneak through in a field this crowded. Finally, the Indie, ex-Culver City Mayor Micheal O’Leary (I), is running a credible campaign on a platform of eliminating the board. O’Leary has the endorsement of State Sen. Holly Mitchell (D) and there is a chance he could sneak through if the Dem vote is thoroughly-enough split. Overall I would bet on Svonkin and Marshall advancing, but in a crowded field, low-info race, any of the 7 other candidates advancing with Marshall is possible.

CA-BoE-4 covers Riverside, Orange, San Diego, Imperial, and part of San Bernardino Counties. It is historically Republican-leaning. Seven candidates are squaring off, four Republicans and three Democrats, meaning a top-two lockout by either party is possible. The only big name in the field, and presumably the seat’s front-runner, is State Sen. Joel Anderson (R), who represents suburban San Diego. Anderson seems the only serious candidate in the GOP field, which also includes Nader Shahtit (R), the 2014 Dem nominee for this seat, 2014 candidate and ex-Tustin councilman John Kelly (R), who took 11% and third place for this seat four years ago, and ex-La Mesa city treasurer Jim Stieringer (R), who has been a perennial candidate for multiple higher offices. For Democrats, the most politically experienced candidate is 90s-era ex-State Rep. Ken Lopez-Maddox (D), who was a Republican in the State House and has been out of politics since 2004; he switched parties to run here but doesn’t seem to be running a serious campaign. BoE staffer David Dodson (D) is the only Dem running a serious campaign but is little-known. The third Dem is an ultra-perennial candidate. I would say Anderson should be more likely than not to advance and any of the other six could join him, but there is a chance of Anderson being boxed out in a fluke.

House Races:

CA-4 : CA-4 is an R+10 seat covering Sacramento’s outer northeastern suburbs around Roseville, as well as much of the mountainous east-central part of the state around Yosemite.

Incumbent Tom McClintock (R), a staunchly antiestablishment conservative, has never been a particularly strong Democratic target in his five terms in this deep-red seat. McClintock does have some vulnerabilities though, as he carpetbagged to this area from Southern California and to this day doesn’t live in the seat (he lives on the other side of the Sacramento metro area). There has been surprisingly strong enthusiasm from Dems for taking McClintock on this year. Three Dems are running credible campaigns against him, two of whom have had very strong fundraising for such tough partisan terrain.

USAID official Jessica Morse (D) has fundraised the most in the field, topping $1M in gross fundraising. She also has the official state Democratic Party endorsement. Morse is running as establishment liberal by national standards, which places her towards the somewhat moderate side of the California Dem spectrum, but still well left of the median voter in this seat. She has also been criticized for an incident in which she embellished her resume.

MIT Professor and former diplomat Regina Bateson (D) has also fundraised very well, taking in over $700K. Bateson has a modicum of establishment support, though far behind Morse on that front, and the endorsement of the area’s largest newspaper, the Sacramento Bee. She is running as a moderate liberal. However, Bateson’s ties to the district appear to be light; while she grew up in the area, and has moved back to run on a leave of absence, her professional life appears to still be mostly based in Boston. Bateson has also been knocked by Dem activists for going back on her word that she would drop out of the race if she did not receive the party endorsement.

Geologist Roza Calderon (D) is the third candidate who has enough funds to run a serious campaign. Calderon has an interesting life story of immigrating from El Salvador and being a single mother. She is running on a far-left platform, which is out of step with the seat, but has garnered her some support from far-left groups. However, her hauls have been poor and dramatically trailed both her rivals. Calderon also has a major liability in that she has been credibly accused of embezzling cash from a Dem activist group she ran, though she has not been charged in the incident. Thus, Calderon looks like a long-shot to advance.

There are also a non-serious Republican and a non-serious Dem in the race. Overall, Morse looks like a slight favorite over Bateson for the right to advance with McClintock, though Bateson may have a chance to pull the upset. Any Democrat will face a very tough run in the general against McClintock thanks to the deep-red terrain of the seat, though either Morse or Bateson could be a credible candidate to put the seat on the board in a truly mammoth wave. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

CA-7 : CA-7 is a D+3 seat basically coextensive with Sacramento’s eastern suburbs, from Folsom south to Elk Grove.

Incumbent Ami Bera (D) has never topped 52% in his three bids for this seat. Bera was politically hurt by a campaign-finance scandal that sent his father to prison, though he (somewhat implausibly) denied involvement. However, he sits in a fairly strongly left-trending seat, and an area that is a good fit for his establishment liberalism. That position has allowed him to prevail by consistent if tiny margins. Thus, while the seat is still on the edge of the playing field, it seems to be a lower-tier target for the GOP this year. That said, two credible Republicans are vying for the chance to take him on.

Surgeon Yona Barash (R) has a very interesting life story. He survived the Holocaust as an infant, moving to Israel and serving in their military before immigrating to the US as a young adult, and having a long career in the area as a surgeon. Barash has also had mediocre but credible fundraising, aided by moderate self-funding. He has some institutional support, particularly among the area’s more ideological conservatives.

Businessman and marine veteran Andrew Grant (R) has strong institutional support, generally from the more establishment side of the party. He has an interesting biography as a career military officer. Grant’s fundraising has been mediocre but credible, roughly equaling Barash’s overall total without self-funding. He is running as a slightly moderate establishment conservative.

There is no clear favorite between Grant and Barash for the right to advance to the general. Either one will face an uphill general against Bera, especially this year given that this seat is likely to have a significant #resistance population. That said, Bera’s unimposing margins suggest this seat could still be a viable long-shot pickup opportunity for the GOP under the right circumstances. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

CA-8 : CA-8 is an R+9 seat based around the High Desert of San Bernardino County, with most of the population in the exurban Victorville/Apple Valley area, as well as Twentynine Palms to the east. It also includes a geographically large area of near-uninhabited desert along the Nevada border.

Incumbent Paul Cook (R) is seeking a fourth term. Cook, a backbench establishment conservative, has never had a particularly tough challenge for re-election. He is the clear favorite again this year regardless of his opponent, but there is an open question over which party his general election opponent will come from.

Ex-State Rep., 2014 gubernatorial candidate, and 2016 candidate Tim Donnelly (R) is making a second bid for this seat. Donnelly, an antiestablishment conservative known as a staunch immigration hawk, came in third by 1% for this seat two years ago, taking 20% in the primary. His fundraising has been poor for this race, barely enough to run a serious campaign. But his high name recognition and dedicated base on the right could give him enough votes to advance with Cook.

There are three Dems in the race, but only one, nurse and elected hospital board member Marge Doyle (D), is serious. Doyle has had credible fundraising for such a tough seat and has the official state Democratic Party endorsement. That might allow her to coalesce the Dem base enough to advance to the general.

The two other Dems have not raised anything, but may be able to gain a significant number of votes on name recognition; one was the 2016 nominee for this seat and one was the 2016 nominee for an overlapping State Senate seat. They could drain enough votes from Doyle to allow Donnelly into second place. It seems close to a Tossup whether Doyle or Donnelly will come in second. In the general, Cook should start as a strong favorite regardless of his opponent, though Doyle seems credible enough to potentially put the race on to the board in a huge Dem wave. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

CA-10 : CA-10 is a white-plurality EVEN seat based around Modesto, covering the entire metro area as well as the cities of Manteca to the north and Turlock to the south. Four-term incumbent Jeff Denham (R) prevailed by a closer than expected 3 point margin in 2016. Denham is perhaps best known nationally for being one of the most pro-immigration Republicans in Congress, most notably his current efforts to force a vote on DACA with a discharge petition. His purple and diversifying seat appears to be continuing a slight leftward trend, so Denham’s poor performance last cycle has made him a major Dem target this year. Four credible Democrats are vying to advance with the incument.

Investor Josh Harder (D) has lapped the rest of the field in fundraising. Harder grew up in the district, but cuts a distinctly coastal progressive vibe, with Stanford and Harvard degrees and work in a venture capital firm; he appears to have carpetbagged back to the seat to run. Harder is also running on a bold progressive platform that seems out of step with the relatively conservative Democratic electorate. However, he has a moderate amount of establishment support. And Harder’s mammoth fundraising, at 1.4M over 3x that of his nearest Dem rival, probably makes him the favorite to advance.

2014/16 nominee Michael Eggman (D) is making a third attempt at taking on Denham after falling just short two years ago and losing by a larger margin in his first try. Eggman comes from a political family, as his sister is a legislator from the Stockton area. He also had considerable national support in his first two runs, but establishment Dems seem somewhat disinclined to give him a third try at Denham, as his fundraising for this race has been mediocre. Eggman is once again running as a slightly moderate establishment liberal, and his name recognition could be a major asset in a field this crowded.

Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno (D) perhaps has some name recognition from her time as mayor of the midsize suburb. Madueno also seems to have a modest but significant amount of establishment Dem support; she is running as an establishment liberal with mild progressive tendencies. However, she did not perform particularly well in her first attempt to climb the political ladder, coming in third place for an open GOP-leaning State House seat two years ago. Her fundraising for this race has also been mediocre, though enough to run a credible campaign.

School board member Sue Zwahlen (D) has raised the least from donors, but has self-funded her way into the mediocre but credible range. Zwahlen is an establishment liberal and seems to have a small amount of institutional support, though she seems the most likely of the bunch to get lost in the field.

There are also two non-serious candidates, one of either party, who each might draw a significant number of votes. The Dem is a perennial candidate, but the Republican is semi-notable, ex-Turlock councilman Ted Howze (R). However, Howze has not raised a cent for this race and probably won’t get much more than protest votes. While it’s theoretically possible Howze could beat out all the Dems for second given the crowdedness of the field, it would be a fluke of epic proportions.

CW seems to be betting on Harder to advance, though there are decent chances for any of Eggman, Madueno, and Zwahlen to beat him out; in spite of their weaker fundraising, any of his rivals would probably be a better matchup in the general for Dems than the easy-to-caricature Harder. In the general, Denham likely starts as a slight favorite, but this is definitely a competitive race and a strong Dem pickup opportunity in a good environment. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

CA-21 : CA-21 is a D+5, 2/3 Hispanic seat stretching from the southern outskirts of Fresno through farm territory around Hanford to the heavily Hispanic southeast part of Bakersfield. However, as Hispanics here are quite poor and among the lowest-turnout voters anywhere, the Anglo minority has outsized influence. This race is a pure straw poll as there are only two candidates on the ballot.

Three-term incumbent David Valadao (R) has an impressive electoral track record. In spite of representing a blue seat that is getting even more so, Valadao has won all three of his elections by double-digits. That record can be chalked up to his moderate record and strong campaign skills, as well as the fact that the poor Hispanic base in this district can be quite low-turnout in midterms. However, the lean of his seat (the most D-friendly seat represented by a Republican outside of South Florida) means that Valadao is once again a target this year.

Engineer and nonprofit exec TJ Cox (D) is Dems’ choice to take on Valadao this year. Cox was a last-minute recruit for the race. He has fundraised well, aided by moderate self-funding, and has an interesting background of running a fund that helps community institutions. He is running mostly on rote partisanship. Cox also doesn’t live in the seat, instead living in the suburban northern part of Fresno, which could be a major liability in parochial rural areas.

Valadao’s proven strength means that he should start as the favorite, but Cox is credible. If Hispanics are more motivated this year, this seat is more than blue enough for Valadao to lose in a bad climate. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

CA-22 : CA-22 is an R+8 seat covering the suburban northern part of Fresno as well as the Visalia and Tulare areas to the south. The seat is Hispanic-plurality; however, as Hispanics here are very low-turnout the seat is Anglo-dominated.

Incumbent Devin Nunes (R) has not faced a significant challenge for re-election since winning this seat when it was first created in 2002. But he has become a significant Dem target this cycle for his position as chair of the Intelligence Committee, which has made him a major player in the Russia investigation. His defense of Trump in that role has made him a bogeyman for national liberals. Three Democrats are vying to take on Nunes, but there is a clear front-runner.

Prosecutor Andrew Janz (D) is the favorite to take on Nunes. Janz has fundraised very well off left-wing anti-Nunes enthusiasm, taking in nearly $2M cycle to date. He is running as a moderate liberal, somewhat left of the Valley’s typical conservative Dems but to the right of the average California Dem. However, it’s Janz’s ability to make himself a vessel for national anti-Nunes #resistance that has made him a fundraising star. That positioning may be an albatross in the general in this conservative district though.

Janz faces a credible Dem rival in healthcare executive Bobby Bliatout (D). A child of Hmong immigrants, Bliatout could have a base in that community. He has had mediocre but credible fundraising and has a minority amount of support from the local establishment, including some local officials. Bliatout is running to Janz’s left on fiscal issues, though he seems to be a bit more moderate culturally. But more importantly, Bliatout is not selling himself to national liberals as an all-Russia-all-the-time candidate. So while Bliatout has fundraised enough to be credible, his cash has trailed Janz’s huge hauls, and he looks unlikely to beat out Janz for the second spot.

The third Dem candidate in the race doesn’t seem very serious; overall, it would be a shock if Nunes did not advance with Janz. While the race could come on to the board in a huge wave, Janz’s rason d’etre of anti-Trump fervor most likely isn’t going to be a major selling point for swing voters in a conservative district Trump carried relatively easily. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

CA-24 : CA-24 is a D+7 seat essentially coextensive with the Central Coast region of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

Incumbent Salud Carbajal (D) won this medium blue open seat by 7 points two years ago. This seat is Dem-leaning and trending slightly further left, so the establishment liberal Carbajal is likely to be favored in his bid for re-election. However, he faces a potentially competitive rematch with his 2016 opponent.

2016 nominee Justin Fareed (R) is back for a third try at this seat. Fareed, who also ran in third in the 2014 primary for this seat, ran a decently strong campaign last time, upsetting a more-experienced Republican in the primary and outpacing the presidential margin in the seat in the general. He is an establishment conservative who had strong institutional support last time, aided by connections he developed as a congressional staffer. While enthusiasm from outside Republicans for Fareed this time has dimmed slightly with his loss to Carbajal, he still has had good fundraising in his rematch.

Ex-Fresno councilman Michael Woody (R) is hoping to upset the pairing. Woody, an engineer, moved to this area 20 years ago after a term on the Fresno city council in the 90s. Woody has not raised much of anything from donors, though he has self-funded enough to run a credible campaign. He is running as an upscale moderate, as a fiscal moderate-conservative and social moderate-liberal. Woody’s lower name recognition and somewhat unorthodox platform make him a long-shot to take the second slot away from Fareed.

This seat is getting even bluer and has a significant #resistance population around Santa Barbara that will be energized this year. Thus, Carbajal looks like the favorite, though Fareed is credible and this seat is on the edge of the playing field. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

CA-25 : CA-25 is an EVEN white-plurality seat covering the Lancaster-Palmdale area of lower-middle-class desert exurbs in northern Los Angeles County, plus the upscale suburbs of Santa Clarita and Simi Valley to the south. This seat has been diversifying and trending left quickly.

Incumbent Steve Knight (R) is a backbench establishment conservative, but he is mostly notable in DC for his mediocre campaign skills. In spite of his seat in the hideously expensive LA Metro area, and being the closest Republican House member to LA donors, Knight has never fundraised well. Knight prevailed by 6 points last cycle against an opponent who carpetbagged into the seat from urban LA. The narrow margin and the leftward trend in this formerly deep-red seat, which Hillary carried, has made it a top-tier Dem target this cycle.

Nonprofit exec Katie Hill (D) appears to be the national Dem establishment choice for the seat. Hill has fundraised very well, narrowly topping even Knight in cycle-to-date fundraising with $1.4M gross. She has been playing up her youth (she is 30) and her strong roots in the district, most notably with a campaign ad she filmed while rock-climbing. Hill is running as an establishment California liberal with some upscale progressive tendencies, which would place her on the far-left in most states but amazingly makes her the most moderate candidate in this field. She has strong establishment support, most notably an endorsement from Emily’s List.

2016 nominee Bryan Caforio (D) is back for a second try at taking on Knight. Caforio is running as a staunch progressive and attempting to get to the left of his rivals, particularly on economics. He strong establishment support from the party’s left wing, particularly from labor groups such as the Nurse’s Union, and a big political endorsement from LG and gubernatorial front-runner Gavin Newsom. Caforio’s fundraising has also been quite strong, over $1M. However, Caforio has a big liability in that he carpetbagged to the seat from urban LA to run.

Geologist Jess Phoenix (D) is the other candiate who has fundraised well, though her hauls are far behind both Hill’s and Caforio’s. Phoenix, who has some support from national left-wing science-activism groups, is attempting to run as the most culturally progressive candidate in the race. However, her significantly lower campaign funding relative to Hill and Caforio in the expensive district, and the fact that there’s not a lot of room to the left of her rivals, seem likely to limit Phoenix’s appeal.

There is also a non-serious Some Dude D in the race. Overall, there is no clear favorite between Hill and Caforio for the right to advance with Knight, and Phoenix could even have a small chance to surprise. In the general, Knight’s mediocre campaign skills and the leftward trend of this district seem likely to make it a top-tier Dem pickup opportunity. The general election is likely to be highly competitive, especially if Hill is nominated. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

CA-26 : CA-26 is a white-plurality D+7 seat covering most of Ventura County, including the cities of Oxnard and Ventura and wealthy suburbs to the east around Thousand Oaks.

Three-term incumbent Julia Brownley (D) has pretty well locked down this left-trending seat, prevailing over well-funded challengers in both 2012 and 2014. As a result, the seat has not become a priority for the GOP in recent years. This year, however, Republicans have an unorthodox candidate in actor Antonio Sabato Jr. (R). Known as a soap opera actor and underwear model, Sabato received some buzz when he entered the race. However, his fundaising has been shockingly poor for such a well-known name.

Two others, one Republican and one Dem, haven’t fundraised enough to run serious campaigns, so this race is basically a straw poll. In the general, Brownley should be a strong favorite, though Sabato might have the profile to surprise if she stumbles. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely D.

CA-29 : CA-29 is a D+29, 2/3 Hispanic seat covering the poor eastern part of the San Fernando Valley.

Incumbent Tony Cardenas (D) is seeking a third term and has drawn no substantive opposition; neither of his Some Dude opponents, one Dem and one Republican, have raised anything significant or are particularly notable. However, this race is still worth watching for which party moves on with Cardenas, because the risk of the incumbent imploding would appear to be very real. Cardenas has been accused of molestation of a 16-year old girl in 2007 in a new lawsuit. So far Democrats have largely stood behind Cardenas’s denials, due to the fact that there is only one allegation, and it comes from the daughter of an allegedly-disgruntled former Cardenas staffer. However, this seat is worth watching in case something blows up before the general.

Neither of the Some Dudes in the race is at all serious, but if the Dem advances there might be less willingness from the Dem establishment to stick with Cardenas if the scandal grows. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-31 : CA-31 is a Hispanic-plurality D+8 seat covering generally middle-class portions of the San Bernardino area, along the foothills from Redlands to Rancho Cucamonga. The race is essentially a straw poll; while there are three serious candidates, only two are serious.

Two-term incumbent Pete Aguilar (D) has been a beneficiary of the leftward trend and increasing diversity of this area. A mainstream liberal, Aguilar has not been a major target since entering office, in spite of Democrats losing this seat in a top-two fluke in 2012. He however does have a credible rival this year. 2016 candidate and economics professor Sean Flynn (R) has self-funded his way into being a well-funded rival to Aguilar. Flynn took 11% in the primary last cycle and has an interesting selling point of being the author of Economics for Dummies. There is also a non-serious Some Dude Dem in the race.

In the general, Aguilar will start as a clear favorite, though Flynn has raised enough to be credible, and might have a slight chance with an unforced error, especially as the heavily-Hispanic Dem base in this seat may not be as energized this year. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-35 : CA-35 is a D+19, 2/3 Hispanic seat covering a string of Inland Empire slumburbs from Pomona through Ontario to Fontana.

Incumbent Norma Torres (D) is seeking a third term and the prohibitive favorite to get it. Torres is a mainstream liberal with strong establishment support, However, she does face two opponents. The more notable is ex-Rep. Joe Baca (D), who is once again seeking a comeback. Since losing his 2012 re-election in a D-on-D general, Baca, who was a moderate Dem in congress, has devolved into perennial candidate status: he ran for this seat as a Dem, CA-31 as a Dem, CA-31 as a Republican, and now this seat as a Dem over the last four cycles – with a landslide loss for Mayor of Fontana thrown in for good measure. Baca has raised little and is all but certain to lose again, but it will be interesting to see if he can even make the general, or if a non-serious Some Dude Republican will beat him out for second. Regardless, neither stands much of any chance against Torres in November. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-36: CA-36 is a Hispanic-plurality D+2 seat covering the entire Coachella Valley around Palm Springs, plus exurbs to the west around San Jacinto.

Incumbent Raul Ruiz (D) has been one of Congress’s most consistent electoral overperformers in his three terms, defeating an incumbent in 2012 and prevailing by larger-than-expected margins against sitting Republican legislators in both 2014 and 2016. As a result, Republicans’ enthusiasm for taking on Ruiz has progressively dimmed. This year, Ruiz faces four Republicans, though this is really a straw poll as only one is serious. Republicans have turned to an outsider here in actress Kimberlin Brown-Pelzer (R). Brown-Pelzer’s fundraising has been mediocre but credible.

Ruiz’s proven strength and the continued leftward trend in this both diversifying and #resistance-friendly area means that this race looks like at best a long-shot for the GOP. However, Brown-Pelzer’s unorthodox profile might give her the chance to put the race on the board if Ruiz stumbles or the national environment becomes less Dem-favorable. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

CA-39 : CA-39 is an EVEN seat covering the upscale suburbs of northern Orange County around Fullerton and Yorba Linda, plus the similarly upscale Diamond Bar area across the hills to the north. The seat is roughly one third each White, Hispanic, and Asian. The seat is open as twelve-term incumbent Ed Royce (R) has decided to retire instead of contesting a tough race; the seat has become a major Dem target as Hillary carried it last cycle. This is almost inarguably the most chaotic House race nationwide, with seven Republicans and six Democrats facing off in a chaotic free-for-all.

Ex-State Rep. Young Kim (R) is the best-funded GOP candidate, raising just shy of $1M. Kim, who immigrated from Korea as a young adult, is running as an moderate conservative. She represented a significant chunk of the seat from 2014 to 2016, winning a hotly contested general for a swing seat and losing two years later. Kim has collected strong establishment support for this race, most notably Royce’s endorsement, whom she served for two decades as a staffer.

Orange County commissioner Shawn Nelson (R) represents the bulk of the seat. Nelson has significant establishment support as well, generally from the more ideological conservative side of the party; he is running as an mainstream conservative with a slight antiestablishment lean. He has had good-but-not-great fundraising. Outside Dem groups have been hitting Nelson heavily, as it seems like he and Kim have the best chance to advance and make an R-on-R general.

Ex-State Sen. Bob Huff (R) previously represented almost the entire district in the State Senate, and is the only serious Republican with roots in the LA County portion of the district. Huff was an establishment conservative in the legislature and a key player in Sacramento, rising to become Senate Minority Leader. He has had good-but-not-great fundraising this year, but has been mostly passed over for institutional support in favor of Kim and Nelson. That said, Huff has strong name recognition district-wide that could allow him to take a runoff spot.

2012 CA-8 candidate and accountant Phil Liberatore (R) has a significant niche as the only red-meat antiestablishment conservative in the field. Aided by modest self-funding, he has raised enough to run a credible campaign. He also performed credibly in his prior run, taking 15% and third place for the open seat about an hour away in the High Desert six years ago. Liberatore has the endorsement of Arpaio and has been the beneficiary of ads from Dems seeking to splinter the GOP vote. However, his Republican institutional support is near non-existent. Between his poor fundraising and ideology that is not a great fit for the seat, he may draw a significant vote share but seems unlikely to be a threat to advance.

Three other Republicans, Brea councilman Steve Vargas (R) La Mirada councilman Andrew Sarega (R), and 2012/14 CA-46 candidate John Cullum (R), have not raised enough to run serious campaigns, but may be semi-notable enough to peel off a significant number of GOP votes.

The two leading Democrats in the race have had gangbusters fundraising, largely due to self-funding. One of those Democrats had a very unique way of getting his wealth: by purchasing a winning Mega Millions lottery ticket. Veteran and lottery winner Gil Cisneros (D) is unsurprisingly the best-funded candidate in the field thanks to $3.5M of self-funding. Cisneros also has had a plurality of establishment support in the field, both from unions and Dem establishment figures. He is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies.

Insurance exec Andy Thorburn (D) is the other uber-wealthy candidate in the race; he has self-funded $3M to bring him to rough parity in funding with Cisneros. Thorburn also has an interesting biography of his pre-business career; he was a teacher and 60s radical who was jailed in a 1970 strike in New Jersey. As you might expect, he is running as a bold progressive and has endorsements from far-left groups, including Our Revolution and the Nurses’ Union. The race between Thorburn and Cisneros became nasty in the spring, leading the state Democratic party to step in and broker a truce between the two.

Pediatrician Mai-Khanh Tran (D) has actually raised the most from donors in the field, at around $700K, and has supplemented that with an equivalent amount of self-funding. Tran has significant establishment support, including two big endorsements from Emily’s List and the Teachers’ Union. She is almost certainly the most moderate major D candidate in the field, running as a moderate liberal.

Congressional staffer and Obama Commerce department official Sam Jammal (D) has had good but not great fundraising; he is touting his status as the only Dem in the field not to self-fund. Jammal is running as an establishment liberal, and has a significant endorsement from one of the seat’s two Dem state legislators. His Congressional connections may not be all that useful though, as his former boss, Rep. Tony Cardenas (D), has problems of his own this year (see CA-29). Jammal could take a significant vote share, but his relatively low fundraising is probably a significant handicap in this expensive seat.

Finally, gastroenterologist Herbert Lee (D) has not raised a cent from donors, though he has made himself a contender with $800K in self-funding. He is not exactly spending that money well though, as his campaign appears to be quite unprofessional – for example, his website is more of a garbled mess than that of many Some Dudes. Lee may have generated enough name recognition to take a significant vote share, but his odds to advance seem long. One other Dem in the race seems to be a largely non-serious Some Dude.

Overall, this race is just chaos. Any two of the nine major candidates could possibly advance, and both D-on-D and R-on-R generals are possible. But if one D and one R advance it seems likely to be among the nation’s most competitive generals and among Dems’ top pickup opportunities nationwide. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

CA-45 : CA-45 is an R+3 seat based around Irvine in central Orange County, but also including wealthy suburbs of the county’s northeast from Tustin to Laguna Niguel.

Incumbent Mimi Walters (R) is an upscale establishment conservative who has not faced a serious challenge in her two terms. However, after her very upscale seat voted for Hillary in 2016, the seat has come on to the radar as a serious Dem target. This year, four novice but well-funded Dems have piled into the race against Walters.

UC Irvine law professor David Min (D) has the official Dem party endorsement. A former Schumer aide, Min has fundraised well, topping $1M. He is running as an establishment liberal, which makes him the most moderate candidate in this field. He has strong support from the less-liberal side of the state establishment. However, Min is facing three rivals to his left who may be more tied into the seat’s energized upscale #resistance population. He has also been criticized by Dem activists for going negative against his two main rivals, one of whom is actually a co-worker.

Fellow UCI law professor Katherine Porter (D) is running as a far-left candidate, and has the endorsements of Emily’s List and two big left-wing names in Sens. Kamala Harris (D) and Elizabeth Warren (D). She has fundraised well for the race, roughly equal with Min. Porter also has a story of escaping abuse at the hands of her ex-husband, though the incident is thorny enough that she has been reluctant to make it a campaign point. She has been knocked for not holding a California law license (she teaches based on her license in her prior home of Oregon).

Yet another professor, MIT professor Brian Forde (D), is in the field. Forde has a slightly different biography than his rival professors, as a former Obama White House tech policy aide; he is running as an upscale progressive, particularly on social issues. He has had the strongest fundraising for the race, taking in nearly $1.5M, some 25% more than his closest Dem rivals. Forde also has some establishment support, though not nearly as much as his rivals, and has some support from national left-wing science activism groups. However, his cross-country carpetbagging to his childhood home in the district from Boston, and the fact that he was registered as a Republican until 2016, appear to be a significant liability in garnering establishment support.

Congressional staffer Kia Hamadanchy (D) has fundraised well, though behind his rivals – he is the only one of the four who has not crossed $1M. The son of Iranian immigrants, Hamadanchy is attempting to position himself as the most ultra-left-wing candidate in the field, which is no easy task. Hamadanchy has gotten some establishment support from far-left groups. However, in the expensive district, his lower fundraising could be a significant handicap.

Overall, any of the four Dems could easily win, though CW is that Min and Porter have a slightly better chance than Forde, with Hamadanchy being a somewhat longer-shot. Given the continued leftward trend in upscale Southern California areas, this upscale, #resistance-heavy seat will likely be host to a very competitive general. With a well-funded Dem nominee, both sides are expecting the race to be competitive, and it seems a high-tier Dem target. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

CA-48 : CA-48 is an R+4 seat covering the generally very wealthy beach communities of Orange County from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach, as well as some more middle-class suburbs inland near the 405.

Longtime incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) has not faced a tough race in recent memory. However, he is facing a clear challenge from both sides as he seeks a sixteenth term. Rohrabacher was known for most of his career as a slightly libertarian-leaning backbench conservative. However, in recent years, he has become a national figure for his embrace of Russian foreign policy. Rohrabacher has made supportive statements of the Crimean invasion and has generally aligned with Russian priorities on foreign policy for some time. This position has made him a lightning rod as Russia has become a liberal cause celebree. Rohrabacher has shown no signs of backing down, going to meet with Assange at his embassy hideout and unapologetically embracing his pro-Russia views. He has pivoted toward the antiestablishment side in this race, most notably a few weeks ago advocating the ability for homeowners to refuse to sell to gay couples. Rohrabacher’s antics have always meant he was at best accepted by much of the GOP establishment. But this year, with his Russia record likely to be a liability in a swing district, a serious GOP challenger has emerged.

Ex-State Rep. and Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh (R) is Rohrabacher’s intraparty rival. Baugh was a legislator in the 90s before a decade as Orange County GOP chair. Baugh is running as a more traditional establishment conservative with a slight upscale moderate lean. Baugh has fundraised reasonably well, and poached a significant chunk of Rohrabacher’s establishment support. Most notably, Baugh has the support of State Sen. John Moorlach (R), a grassroots conservative favorite who represents a large chunk of the area. Baugh’s best shot at the win is probably by making it into the general with Rohrabacher, where he is likely to be the less-offensive choice for Democrats. To prevent him from getting there, both Rohrabacher and Democrats have been hitting him with attack ads, while Baugh has been firing back at Rohrabacher’s obvious vulnerabilities.

On other Republican, veteran and businessman John Gabbard (R), has enough funds to barely run a credible campaign at $50K, and thus may take a few anti-Rohrabacher GOP votes from Baugh; however, his impact is likely to be limited. On the Dem side, there are three serious candidates.

Businessman Harley Rouda (D) is national Dems’ choice in the race. Rouda, who has worked in multiple real estate and tech businesses, has self-funded over $1M and added that to a nearly-equivalent amount from donors. Rouda is running as an establishment liberal, and has significant establishment support; two of his former rivals also have dropped out to back him. He also had actor Jason Alexander of Seinfeld cut an ad for him. But the biggest name in Rouda’s corner is the DCCC, which has spent heavily to air a large number of ads on his behalf.

However, Rouda was not Democrats’ first choice in the seat. That distinction instead goes to his main intraparty rival, medical researcher Hans Keirstead (D), who secured the state party’s endorsement and has the strongest establishment support. Like Rouda, Keirstead has also used self-funding ability to raise well over $1M, and is running as an establishment liberal. His biography, as a stem cell researcher who was a professor before moving into industry, would at first pass seem significantly stronger than Rouda’s more generic businessman story. However, Keirstead has fallen out of favor, because there is a large amount of smoke about potential liabilities around him. While a professor, Keirstead was investigated for having affairs with students and allegedly punching a student. The investigation did not result in any disciplinary action, but the rumors were enough for the DCCC to brand Keirstead an opposition research liability and switch their backing to Rouda.

Trial lawyer Omar Siddiqui (D) has become a serious factor in the contest with $750K in self-funding. Siddiqui is running slightly to the right of his two rivals, though still an establishment liberal overall. He also has an interesting biography point of being a former FBI consultant, which comes with a commendation from Comey. His self-funding has allowed him to become a contender, and he will probably take a significant vote share. However, Siddiqui has little establishment support and seems a long-shot to make it to the second round.

There are also a large number of non-serious candidates on the ballot or candidates that have ended their campaigns too late to be removed – five Democrats and five Republicans. It’s unclear how much effect they have. Overall, most people believe that Rohrabacher still has enough support to advance. But who will advance with him is an open question – Baugh, Rouda, and Keirstad are all thought to have good chances. Republicans’ voter turnout in the seat has been strong, leading CW to mark Baugh as a slight front-runner to take second. But either major Dem advancing would be wholly unsurprising as well. In the general, if two Republicans advance, Rohrabacher will probably have an uphill fight against Baugh’s less-polarizing position. If a Democrat advances, the incumbent’s liabilities mean that this upscale, #resistance-friendly seat will likely be a top-tier Dem pickup opportunity and hotly contested, though the seat’s GOP heritage and incumbency may be enough to save Rohrabacher. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

CA-49 : CA-49 is an R+1 seat covering the northwest part of San Diego County, including the Oceanside and Carlsbad areas, as well as a slice of the southern tip of Orange County around Dana Point. The seat is open as nine-term incumbent Darrell Issa (R) opted to retire after getting a close shave in his re-election bid last year. As Hillary carried the seat and Dems came within 1% of flipping it last cycle, this has become a major Dem pickup target. Were it not for the even more chaotic CA-39 contest, this race would be a good contender for most chaotic House race, with four serious Republicans and four Dems facing off in a free-for-all scrum.

Board of Equalization Member Diane Harkey (R) looks like Republicans’ establishment favorite for this seat. Harkey has Issa’s endorsement, as well as the official endorsement of the county parties in both Orange and San Diego. Prior to her elected term on the state tax board, she previously represented most of the Orange County portion of the seat in the State House for six years. Harkey is running as an establishment conservative with a focus on fiscal issues, which seems a decent fit for the seat. Aided by some moderate self-funding, she has had good-but-not-great fundraising hauls.

State Rep. Rocky Chavez (R) has represented most of the seat for three terms. Chavez pulled the trigger on a run for this seat after previously aborting a 2016 US Senate run. A retired career Marine, Chavez served in the Schwarzenegger administration and has his former boss’s endorsement; as you might guess, he has been known as one of the most moderate Republicans in the legislature. The DCCC has not hesitated to exploit that moderation as a vulnerability, by running ads hitting him for siding with Democrats on legislative votes; they are hoping to push down his share of Republicans and keep him out of the general, where his moderation might make him the strongest GOP contender. Chavez’s fundraising has been quite mediocre for an established officeholder, the lowest in the field by a significant margin, and his lack of base ties may be a problem in trying to gain Republican votes.

San Diego County commissioner Kristin Gaspar (R) scored an impressive victory in her county commission race in 2016, ousting a Democratic incumbent from a seat Hillary was carrying easily. Gaspar ran as a moderate establishment conservative in that race. However, this year, she has tacked right and is attempting to run as the most antiestablishment conservative in the field, though her level of red meat would seem somewhat tepid outside of California. That switch, especially in addition to her looking to climb the ladder again after just two years, has left a poor taste in the mouth of much of the area’s GOP establishment, and her institutional support is poor. However, she has had good-but-not great fundraising and has one major endorsement from popular San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R).

San Juan Capistrano councilman Brian Maryott (R) is the best-funded Republican in the field thanks almost entirely to $700K in self-funding from his prior career as a finance exec. It’s worth noting though that all four Republicans trail the four Democrats in fundraising for this seat by large margins. Maryott is running on a somewhat Trumpist platform, attempting to straddle the establishment/ antiestablishment divide, and playing up his outsider profile. Maryott has little institutional support though, and his candidate skills have proven mediocre. While he may take a significant vote share, he seems unlikely to be a real threat to advance.

On the Dem side, 2016 nominee Doug Applegate (D) is mounting a second bid for the seat after narrowly falling short to Issa two years ago by under 1%. That prior bid probably gives him the highest name rec in the Dem field this time. Applegate has a compelling biography as a career Marine officer, and has support from Dem veterans’ groups. However, his bid last cycle was hurt significantly by an alleged prior history of domestic violence, though his ex-wife and family have defended him. He is running as a far-left Dem and has support from much of the left-wing side of the party establishment, including the nurses’ union. Applegate has raised nearly $1M, but that amazingly makes him the least-well-funded of the four Dems in the field.

Obama State Department official and heir Sara Jacobs (D) is the granddaughter of Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs. Her family’s wealth has allowed her to fundraise very well, taking in $2M. Jacobs has been playing up her youth (she is 29) and gender as the more appealing aspects of her biography. Jacobs has decent establishment support as well, most notably from Emily’s list and two of San Diego’s three sitting House Dems. She is running as an establishment liberal with some upscale progressive tendencies. However, Jacobs’s silver spoon upbringing may cause her some problems in this race, as she has been hit by allegations that her grandfather has pulled strings to advance her career, including getting her a high-level post on the Hillary campaign.

Real Estate investor Paul Kerr (D) has had ridiculous levels of fundraising, taking in $4M with only $500K self-funding. Kerr has a compelling biography of growing up poor, serving in the Navy, and working his way through college to build a major real estate business. Kerr is running as an establishment liberal with slight progressive tendencies, and has a notable endorsement from Rep. Scott Peters (D). However, Kerr’s overall institutional support has been somewhat mediocre relative to his rivals.

Attorney and Dem official Mike Levin (D) has strong establishment support, including an endorsement from the Teachers’ Union. Levin is running as an establishment liberal, and has had strong fundraising of nearly $2M. He also has institutional support from a number of unions and the Sierra Club. I would say Levin has a plurality of D establishment support, including a number of minor Dem pol endorsements.

There are also four other non-serious Some Dude Republicans on the ballot, who could drain votes from the GOP and increase the odds of two Dems making Top Two. Much like CA-39, this race is just chaos. Any two of the eight credible candidates could possibly advance, and both D-on-D and R-on-R generals are possible. But if one D and one R advance it seems likely to be among the nation’s most competitive generals and among Dems’ top pickup opportunities nationwide. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.

CA-50 : CA-50 is an R+11 seat covering most of San Diego’s eastern suburbs, as well as the Escondido area to the north.

Incumbent Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) is seeking a sixth term. Hunter got this seat as an Heir Force heirloom in 2008, coasting in without meaningful opposition on his father’s name. Hunter looks likely to get his first real challenge this year, largely due to problems of his own making. For most of his last term, Hunter has been under FBI investigation for alleged massive campaign finance violations. Hunter has apparently had a history of using campaign funds to pay for personal expenses, including flying a pet rabbit cross-country and buying expensive gifts for his children. His primary defense of the charges has been to blame his own wife. He has also had some other minor bizarre incidents, such vaping during a hearing and calling for a first-strike against North Korea. Hunter has been mostly hoping that name recognition and the lean of the seat will carry him to another term, which is not a horrible bet. Who will advance with Hunter is a chaotic open question though, as there are two Republicans and two serious Democrats in the race.

El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells (R) is Hunter’s better-known rival. Wells has served five years as mayor of the large suburb of 100K. He has a compelling personal story over overcoming poverty as a young adult to become a successful nurse and business owner. He is running as an establishment conservative, and has peeled off a sizeable amount of Hunter’s institutional GOP support. However, Wells jumped into the race very late and has barely fundraised, taking just $50K over his entire campaign. A sizeable chunk of his city also sits outside the district in CA-53. He is also hurt by not being the only serious Republican to take on Hunter.

Businessman Shamus Sayed (R) is actually Hunter’s better-funded intraparty rival. Sayed, who owns a translation-services business, has self-funded enough to run a credible campaign, though his fundraising has been mediocre-to-poor overall. Sayed is running as a moderate and mostly criticizing Hunter’s scandal, which could get him some crossover votes from anyone-but-Hunter Dems. However, he has little establishment support or institutional connections.

There are two credible Dems in the race. Obama Labor official Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) has actually topped the entire field, including Hunter, in fundraising. Campa-Najjar has the official Dem party endorsement as well, and has support from left-wing groups like the Nurses’ Union and Our Revolution. He is running as a slightly moderate establishment liberal, well left of the median voter in the seat. Campa-Najjar also has a bit of a family problem: he lived in Gaza for four years as a child and his grandfather was one of the terrorists who bombed the 1972 Munich Olympics. That profile could make him a tough sell in one of the state’s most conservative districts even against the deeply-flawed Hunter.

Former Navy SEAL and school board member Josh Butner (D) is the other major Dem in the race. Butner has running as a moderate and would likely be a far more formidable opponent in the general against Hunter. He also could garner some GOP crossover support, as he has far outspent the non-Hunter Republicans. Butner also has one significant establishment endorsement, from Rep. Scott Peters (D) of the adjacent CA-52. However, his institutional support trails Campa-Najjar’s by a wide margin.

There is also a non-serious Some Dude Dem in the race, who may drain off a few Dem votes. The primary is a complicated math question. Republicans have historically taken about 60-70% of the vote in the district, and a recent poll showed Hunter retaining most of his popularity, likely due to low awareness of the scandal. There are basically three moving parts here. First, how much Hunter takes – if he takes over 50%, the Dem base probably means Campa-Najjar coalesces liberals and moves on regardless. But if Hunter is closer to 40%, that makes it more interesting. Then the second question is how much will Republicans take. If the GOP is around 70% as they were in 2012 or 2014, then either Wells or Sayed could take second. But if the GOP is down around 60% as in 2016, that could open the door for Campa-Najjar again or Butner to sneak through on crossover votes. And then of course, there are the twin questions of how (un)equally Campa-Najjar and Butner split Dems’ votes and Wells and Sayed split anti-Hunter Republicans. Bottom line, any of the four other serious candidates could advance with Hunter.

In the general, Hunter is probably still favored unless the scandal intensifies, but his vulnerabilities likely mean the race will be competitive. A Republican would likely have a solid shot at ousting him, while Butner could have a decent shot, especially if the scandal gets worse, and Campa-Najjar would likely be an underdog unless Hunter’s situation deteriorates further. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

CA-52 : CA-52 is a D+6 seat covering the suburban northern half of the city of San Diego and a few nearby suburbs.

Three-term incumbent Scott Peters (D) is a mainstream liberal with some moderate tendencies. Peters picked this seat up in a close contested in 2012 and narrowly prevailed in an especially nasty race two years later. However, his 2016 bid was relatively easy, and a continued leftward trend in this very upscale seat seems likely to only intensify this cycle. Thus, this seat is not widely considered a serious GOP target; however, there are six Republicans vying to take him on, three of them serious. All three have had mediocre but credible fundraising, thanks to some modest self-funding.

Attorney Omar Qudrat (R) has the endorsement of the county party and most of the area’s major establishment figures, including Rep. Darrell Issa (R) and 2014 nominee Carl DeMaio (R). Qudrat, a practicing Muslim, has an interesting biography of previously serving as a civilian prosecutor in the Defense Department. He is running as a moderate establishment conservative.

2016 CA-53 nominee and physician James Veltmeyer (R) has an interesting story of immigrating from Ecuador as an unaccompanied child, leaving poverty in his home country and being raised by an aunt in San Diego. Veltmeyer is running as a moderate establishment conservative. However, his effort two years ago was unimpressive, losing in the safely Democratic adjacent seat by 2:1.

The final candidate, industrial exec Michael Allman (R), is running on a very unorthodox platform. Allman is pledging to open up every one of his votes to a referendum by an online-voting system, in which he will vote how his constituents ask him to. It’s certainly an innovative idea, but seems unlikely to get him many points with GOP base voters. Allman’s higher self-funding means he has raised the most of the field, though his funding has still been mediocre.

Overall, Qudrat’s establishment support makes him the most likely to advance with Peters, but Veltmeyer or even Allman could potentially slip into the second slot. Any will face a very tough general in the left-trending and #resistance-heavy seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

Mayoral Races : There are four major cities in California holding Mayoral elections this week as well, using three different voting systems.

San Francisco Mayor (RCV) : San Francisco is America’s 13th largest city, at 885K (a number that has been skyrocketing), which breaks down as roughly 40% White, 35% Asian, 15% Hispanic, and 5% Black. San Francisco has long been a metonym for insane upscale social liberalism, and of course the city is overwhelmingly Democratic at a PVI of D+35. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t divides: San Francisco has two de facto parties, the “moderates” and the “progressives”. Don’t let the terms fool you though: the “moderates” are quite far left even by California’s skewed standards (think Gavin Newsom), they just aren’t quite as left-wing as the “progressives” and have a modicum of sanity about left-wing idealism. San Francisco’s Mayoral election uses ranked-choice voting, where voters rank candidates and votes are progressively redistributed. The election this year was triggered by the sudden death of then-Mayor Ed Lee (D/M) from a heart attack last December. There are eight candidates in the field, but only four are considered contenders.

Councilwoman London Breed (D/M) is considered the front-runner. As council president, she took over as interim mayor from Lee after his death. However, that was not to last, as Breed was sacked in favor of placeholder Mayor Mark Farrell (D/M) by the council’s progressive faction. The spat has raised Breed’s name recognition and allowed her to coalesce most of the moderates’ support. Moderates have tradiitonally held a small but stable majority overall, meaning Breed is the odds-on-favorite to win after all is said and done. However, she faces two candidates from the progressive wing.

Ex-State Sen. Mark Leno (D/P) is the less strident of the two Progressives in the race. Leno was the first candidate into the race, launching a 2019 bid before Lee died. He is clearly on the progressive side of the sanity divide, though with more of a technocratic style than a neo-Marxist one like his rival.

Councilwoman Jane Kim (D/P) is the most left-wing candidate in the field (and that’s saying something). Kim lost a State Senate bid for the seat covering the entire city two years ago by 2%; this year, she has made tax hikes the centerpiece of her platform. Kim and Leno have cross endorsed each other, advocating each other as their supporters’ second choice. There is no clear favorite whether Leno or Kim will come out ahead, but the victor will probably consolidate the Progressive vote against Breed in the final round.

Two other candidates are worth a mention. Ex-councilwoman Angela Alioto (D/M) is something of the fourth wheel in the race. Alioto, daughter of 70s-era ex-Mayor Joe (D), served on the council in the 90s and came in third in the 2003 race for Mayor. She is the least left-wing candidate in the field, and has advocated the far-right position of excluding felons from the city’s sanctuary city law. However, Alioto is somewhat washed-up and she has never got much traction in this race; she will likely garner a significant vote share that will redistribute mostly to Breed.

Finally, local GOP official Richie Greenberg (R) is the only Republican in the race; he may get a few votes from the city’s GOP minority that will probably be redistributed towards Breed in subsequent rounds. There are also three Some Dudes in the race. Overall, the city’s slight but durable Moderate majority means the race looks like Breed’s to lose, but if Progressives are a majority either Leno or Kim could come out on top.

San Jose Mayor (LRTT) : San Jose is America’s 10th largest city, with a population just over 1M, sprawling across the central portion of Silicon Valley. Its population is almost perfectly split equally three ways between Whites, Hispanics, and Asians. The city is one of the few remaining areas in or near Silicon Valley that can be called mostly middle-class, though the housing crunch in the area has been continuing to gradually push out non-wealthy residents. Four candidates are running for mayor in a Louisiana Rules Top Two format. Incumbent Sam Liccardo (D) is a relatively moderate Dem by Bay Area standards (though an establishment liberal overall, on par with someone like Jerry Brown). He is the prohibitive favorite for a second term; Liccardo has been relatively popular in office; though there has been some grumbling on his left that might have given him a serious rival, none wound up materializing. His only challenger of significance is businessman and 2016 city council candidate Steve Brown (R), who took 45% in a council race two years ago but seems a bit out of his depth taking on an incumbent citywide. There are also two non-serious Some Dudes in the race. Overall, it would be a shock if Liccardo did not win easily.

Chula Vista Mayor (LRTT) : Chula Vista is a mega-suburb south of San Diego of 245K, roughly 60% Hispanic and 35% White. The urban western part of the city is heavily Hispanic and poor to lower middle class, while the eastern part of the city is suburban, white-majority, and middle- to upper-middle class. Chula Vista is a blue city at a federal level. Incumbent Mary Salas (D) is seeking a second term and the prohibitive favorite to get it. Salas is facing three opponents. Water board member Hector Gastelum (R), a perennial candidate for higher office with a history of foot-in-mouth disease, is the only one running a mildly serious campaign, while the two others are non-serious Some Dudes. It would be a huge shock if Salas did not win easily.

San Bernardino Mayor (CRTT) : San Bernardino is a city of 215K in the northern Inland Empire. It is roughly 60% Hispanic, 20% White, and 15% Black. Most of the city is poor to lower middle class urban areas, though there are some more upscale areas in the foothills of the city’s north. San Bernardino is deep blue on a federal level, but Republicans have historically done well in local races due to candidate quality and turnout disparities; I believe the city has a GOP-majority city council. Unlike the other mayoral races, San Bernardino uses a California Rules Top Two format. Seven candidates are facing off, four of them serious.

Incumbent Carey Davis (R) won the post four years ago in a considerable upset, harnessing voter anger over the city’s distraught finances, which led to a bankruptcy filing early this decade. Davis has had a reasonably successful term as mayor by getting the city’s finances under control. Davis is a moderate conservative with establishment support from the centrist wings of both parties, including the city’s two State Senators, one from either party. However, San Bernardino has dug a fairly large hole and the city’s crime and problems are significant enough that Davis has drawn three major challengers. Strangely for such a strongly Democratic city, Davis’s most likely general election opponent is actually another Republican.

Councilman John Valdivia (R) is Davis’s major rival. Valdivia, like Davis, is a moderate conservative, and has won elections in a deep-blue council seat in the city’s south. Valdivia has fundraised very well and has support from three of his six council colleagues. CW is that he and Davis are most likely to advance to a general election.

There are also two Democrats in the race. Elected city clerk Gigi Hanna (D) is running on a moderately liberal platform and has some Dem estbalishment support, while school board member Danny Tillman (D) has a base in the black community and is probably the most liberal candidate in the field.

There are three other candidates in the race who generally seem non-serious. Overall, CW seems to be betting on a general between Davis and Valdivia, but there hasn’t been a lot of info available about this race, so it seems very possible Hanna or Tillman could snag a general election spot (or maybe even both) instead.

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