Let’s begin with a partial list of NFL records established or tied by Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson in his first pro season:

• Most touchdown passes by a rookie in a calendar month (16);

• Longest streak of games with three or more touchdown passes by a rookie (4);

• Most touchdown passes by a rookie in a single game (5);

• Most touchdown passes by a rookie in a half (4).

[Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free!]

Last October, in a thrilling 41-38 loss at Seattle, Watson produced the only game in the history of the league in which a player has run for 50 or more yards, passed for 400 and thrown for at least four TDs.

After that performance, Richard Sherman had this to say: “My God, Houston’s so lucky. By next year, [Watson] is going to be a top-five quarterback in this league, and that includes the two big dogs. He makes you dig to the deepest part of your competitive juices to beat him.”

Watson was the top scoring quarterback in fantasy last season on a per-game basis, by a healthy margin. He threw eight interceptions in seven games, which isn’t great, but that’s only a minor nuisance in fantasy. Watson completed 61.8 percent of his throws at an impressive 8.3 yards per attempt. Plenty of analysts expressed concern about his arm strength and velocity entering the draft, but no QB threw more deep passes per game than Watson last season (6.9) and few passers were as accurate on deep balls (41.7 percent).

Going forward, there’s basically no chance that Watson can continue to throw TD passes on 9.3 percent of his attempts, as he did last season. No player in league history is anywhere close to that rate. (Aaron Rodgers has the highest TD percentage among modern quarterbacks at 6.4. Peyton Manning finished his career at 5.7, Steve Young at 5.6 and Tom Brady is at 5.5.) We would have expected regression from Watson even if he hadn’t suffered the ACL injury that ended his season in November. The league has had a full offseason to scheme for Houston’s offense.

It’s tough to nail down a proper draft-day price for Watson, because we need to account for both his immense upside and the near-certainty that his per-game production will slip. Early drafters are treating him as if he’s a no-doubt top-tier fantasy asset, selecting him as the second QB off the board behind only Rodgers, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. This, obviously, is insane. You have essentially zero chance to profit on Watson’s season if you select him near his ADP (39.2). The Yahoo fantasy crew is relatively bullish on Watson — no one ranks him lower than QB7 — but selecting a quarterback in the fourth round is not generally a winning approach.

As for the health of Watson’s right knee, there have been no worrisome reports to this point. He actually played a series in the preseason opener, which is a promising sign. He’ll be 10 full months removed from the injury when the regular season begins, so it’s not as if he’s racing to return on a tight timeline. Mobility is big a part of Watson’s game, but it’s certainly not his signature trait. Last year’s fantasy value was largely about his arm, his aggressiveness, his decision-making and his stellar receiving corps.

View photos DeAndre Hopkins has some of the best hands in the business. He’s a no-doubt first-round receiver in fantasy. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip) More

DeAndre Hopkins catches every damn thing

While Watson was passing for a record-setting 16 touchdowns last October, Hopkins delivered an absurd 402 receiving yards and six scores. Nuk was phenomenal last season, beginning to end. With Watson, he was borderline unfair. Hopkins finished as the No. 1 receiver in fantasy for the year, catching 96 balls for 1378 yards and a league-leading 13 spikes. He’s an easy first-rounder in 2018. Hopkins has topped 1200 receiving yards in three of the past four seasons, only missing the mark during the Osweiler plague. Nuk has a rare combination of strength, sure hands and body control. You want him on your fake squad.