Chow advances

TORONTO SEPTEMBER 12th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1164 Toronto voters, just fewer than 4-in-10 will vote John Tory for mayor (38%), while just more than 3-in-10 will vote for Doug Ford (31%). This is in contrast to last week, just after Doug entered the race in the place of his brother Rob, when the two leaders were still 7 points apart, but at higher levels (41% and 34%, respectively). What has changed is that Olivia Chow has improved her vote share from less than one fifth last week (19%) to one quarter today (25%).





If second tier candidate Ari Goldkind's name is added to the list, little changes. Tory continues to take just less than 4-in-10 (38%), Ford exactly 3-in-10 (30%) and Chow just less than a quarter (24%). Goldkind takes less than one twentieth of the vote (3%). Few are undecided (4%) or will vote another candidate (1%).

John Tory is a popular second choice

Four-in-ten Ford voters would pick John Tory second (42%), as would more than one half of Chow voters (53%). Few Ford voters (12%) would vote Chow second, nor would few Chow voters support Ford in second place (10%). When Goldkind's name is tested in this context, he is the second choice of one tenth or more of John Tory (12%) or Olivia Chow voters (15%).

Tory leads approval, Rob Ford trails

John Tory has the highest approvals among those aware of him (64% of 97%), followed by Olivia Chow (56% approval among 96% aware). Doug Ford is well-known (96%) but his approval does not exceed one half (45%). Rob Ford's approval is lowest at just 4-in-10 (39%). Ari Goldkind, while not well known (19% aware) has relatively high approval (61%).





"It looks as though the Doug Caravan has settled a bit, and Tory still leads, but they should both be concerned about the resurgence of Olivia Chow," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.

