We are less than 48 hours away from the NHL Entry Draft and there has been talk that the Winnipeg Jets could shock many with drafting Jesse Puljujarvi instead of Patrik Laine at second overall.

If the Jets were to do such it would be a mistake… not world ending, but a mistake all the same.

Earlier in the year, this would not have been such a controversial opinion. In fact, Jesse Puljujarvi was ranked higher by most individuals and scouting services. While I have no insider information how the Jets feel now, I know for a fact that there was a time where each of the Finns had their group supporters in the organization.

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But as the year went on things started to change.

U20 World Juniors

The World Juniors last winter is when the shift first started to happen. Both players played extremely well.

As advertised, Puljujarvi was the better playmaker, with his 8 primary assists, and played a more complete two-way game, while Laine brought on the shot volume and goals.

Puljujarvi lead the tournament in points and assists, was nominated to the All-Star Team, won Best Forward, and Movst Valuable Player, and Top 3 Player for Finland. Laine lead the tournament goals, was tied for second in shots on goal, and was also nominated to the All-Star Team while winning the Top 3 Player for Finland.

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Liiga Regular Season

Puljujarvi had a pretty exceptional season. He was one of the top young scorers, played on a dominant team with dominant linemates, posted his team’s best Corsi percentage and 14th best Corsi percentage in the league, and directed 3.5 shots at the oppositions net per game.

Laine though was on a whole another level. Laine point pace was about 28 percent higher. He lead the league for rookies in goals and points, by a significant margin. He also directed a full two more shots at the net than Puljujarvi. While Laine’s Corsi percentage was not as exceptional as Puljujarvi, Laine played on a far weaker team in shot differentials, and his Corsi relative to his team’s average is much higher.

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Liiga Post-Season

Interestingly, the two are quite a lot more comparable in the post-season despite the playoffs being where scouts and fans started to separate the two even further. A large part of this was due to Laine’s “big game” moments.

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It is true that statistics only show a portion of the story, although a fairly important part of the story. The eye-test though was fairly slanted to the SM-Liiga Champion’s lead goal scorer.

After the combination of the regular and post-season performance, Laine went home with the grand prize while also winning Liiga’s Rookie of the Year and Best Player in Playoffs. Puljujarvi went home with the bronze medal.

Summer Tournaments

Puljujarvi went to Grand Forks to win gold at U18 World Championship. He was a decent player who scored at the fourth highest point per game pace and generated a few shots against his peers. He even was nominated to the All-Star Team from his performance.

Laine, however, lead a men’s tournament in goals, came fourth in points, and first in shots on goal, playing against NHL talents ranging from Pavel Datsyuk, Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall, Gustav Nyquist, Artemi Panarin, Ryan O’Reilly, and Mark Scheifele.

Laine went home with a silver medal instead of the gold, but also was nominated to the All-Star Team, while being named Top 3 Player for Finland, and wining both Best Forward and MVP for the tournament.

Closing thoughts

Both players have been something special, and getting either player would a big long-term addition, of the sort that no already-pretty-decent 5-on-5 side would typically have. Yet here we are. Some bad goaltending and special teams mixed in with a bit of bad luck in the regular season and a lot of good luck in the draft lottery.

Puljujarvi looks to be a potential elite two-way winger that can drive play, setup your goal scorers, and add some secondary scoring himself. Laine looks to be a level above, though, as a game breaking goalscorer and potentially the best shot-volume goalscorer since Alex Ovechkin.

The Jets could use a good player, no matter which one of the two big Finnish winger that may be, but a pure goalscorer is something else altogether. Not only do all indications suggest Laine is the best player available, but the better fit for the organization in terms of their on-ice product.

Looking at prospect models, whether that may be pGPS or the remnants of PCS that I still carry with me, Puljujarvi had a season that makes him out to be a bonafide top-round talent and someone that will likely help his team for a long while. Laine, on the other hand, cannot be described by these models as he is simply too good. He has no statistical comparisons, as he has been too exceptional of a performer with too much size to compare with any players who have come out of Finland before him.

Players in the Liiga like Puljujarvi tend to be great players. Players like Laine have never existed before.

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