Dante Pettis’ rookie year was a mix of highlight plays and frustrating injuries while becoming acclimated to Kyle Shanahan’s extensive playbook. Entering year two, Pettis is where he needs to be for the 49ers, and presents a great value in season-long drafts at his current average draft position.

Format Average Draft Position Rank among Wide Receivers Points Per Reception 78.1 32 Half PPR 85 34 National Fantasy Championships (NFC) 81.7 32

That is what the fantasy football community has thought of Dante Pettis thus far in draft season. It is fair, for sure, but there is also cause for optimism regarding Pettis’ fantasy stock. For one, he is more comfortable with the playbook and himself in Kyle Shanahan’s system. That is something that Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd, and Jordan Matthews cannot necessarily claim for themselves. He has added weight to his frame, which should decrease his injury risk. Jimmy Garoppolo has taken notice, saying that Pettis has been deceptively fast in camp.

Speaking of Garoppolo, his return figures to decrease the team’s second-highest turnover rate from 2018, which will lead to more plays in the offense. When you take all of this into account and map out a conservative projection for Dante Pettis based off his 2018 figures, he projects as excellent value at his current ADP.

Ahead of the pack

I honestly don’t really remember what (he) was like (last year) because I was just so all over the place. But he’s looking really good right now.

That was Dante Pettis’ response when asked how Garoppolo’s knee looked early on in organized team activities. Pettis was admittedly having trouble grasping the playbook his rookie year, something I’d be willing to bet Hurd and Samuel are experiencing as well. George Kittle also had issues with the playbook his rookie year, but had this to say once he had a grasp on it:

Coach Shanahan’s offense is very dense, but once you figure it out, it’s one of the most fun times you’ll have playing football. …A guy like Dante, he’s just picking it up. He’s a smart dude and a freak of nature athlete. When you have that combo – and you’re no longer thinking about what routes you have – you saw (what he could do) at the end of the season last year.

That freak athleticism should have him entrenched as a starter on the boundary. Kendrick Bourne and Marquise Goodwin figure to battle for the spot opposite Pettis, while Trent Taylor and Richie James are no threat to Pettis’ snaps, as they project as solely slot players. So there we have the first reason why Pettis has a positive fantasy outlook: there is no one on the 49ers to challenge his role as a starter.

Return of Garoppolo

Despite losing Garoppolo early in the 2018 season, the 49ers turned out to be a capable offense in terms of yards. They finished 13th in yards per play and 12th in first downs, according to Pro Football Reference. Their yards per pass attempt was 9th in the league, on par with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

Turnovers are what hurt the 49ers the most. They had the second-highest turnover percentage in the league, including the third-highest interception rate. Having Garoppolo healthy for a full season should theoretically improve the scoring rate and the raw number of plays run by reducing the turnovers.

Mapping out a projection

In what amounted to be a 12-game season for Dante Pettis, he finished with these numbers:

Targets Receptions Yards Yards per Reception Touchdowns Catch Rate 45 27 467 17.3 5 60%

Excluding his first start, Pettis had a 16.8% target share of the offense. It isn’t unreasonable to expect that figure to rise in his second year. Using the 49ers pass attempts from 2018 while giving Pettis a 20% target share, I mapped out a projection for him in 2019.

Targets REC (based off his 60% catch rate Yards (based on a 16 YPR figure Touchdowns PPR Points 2018 WR Rank 106.4 63.84 1021.44 6 201 23

I feel those are all very conservative numbers. A 20% target share is standard for a team’s number two target. Robby Anderson, Doug Baldwin, Cooper Kupp and Will Fuller all boasted a 20% target share in 2018. I lowered the yards per reception number by a yard, and only gave him six touchdowns on the entire year (he had five in a limited sample his rookie year).

All of that equates to last year’s WR23 in PPR, nine spots ahead of his current wide receiver standing according to Fantasy Football Calculator. There is plenty of room for Pettis to smash this projection, given the expected turnover decrease with Garoppolo being healthy leading to more plays, a modest touchdown projection, and the capability to maintain his stellar yards per reception figure.

Summary

Christian Kirk, Robby Anderson, Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, and Jarvis Landry are all being selected before Pettis in PPR redraft leagues. I don’t necessarily hate those players, but I would take Pettis over any of them if you’re drafting today (which you should be!)

Pettis and Garoppolo are ready for a breakout year together, and I’m willing to invest in that with my fantasy rosters.

James Aguirre is a writer for PFN covering NFL betting and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter @PFN_James