How will the European Parliament look after the European elections on 22-25 May?

The latest estimate (25/ May - 23:39 CEST) from the European Parliament is based on polling results from TNS Opinion. It predicts the centre-right EPP to win just a few seats more than the centre-left S&D (212 to 185).

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The Liberal group will come third with 71 MEPs, while the Greens will be fourth with 55 seats ahead of the Leftist Gue/NGL group up for 45 seats in the new 751-seat assembly.

The ERC group, which is dominated by the UK conservative party, is up for 40 seats while another eurosceptic group, EFD, led by the UK Independence party, stands to get 36 seats.

A new political group might be composed of parties from the far-right, led by the French Front National.

It takes 25 MEPs from 7 different countries to form a political group in the European Parliament. Political groups mean access to financial and staff resources, committee chair posts as well as speaking time in the assembly.

While the parliament has gained new legislative powers from successive treaty changes, and while the European Commission has more say than ever on national budgets, turnout has steadily declined from 63 percent in the first direct European Parliament elections in 1979 to just 43 percent in 2009, but went slightly up this time to 43.11%.

Despite the four-day voting period, the full results will be released only after the final polling station has closed – at 11pm Brussels time on Sunday 25 May.

However projections about the EP make-up, based on exit polls, will start being broadcast by the parliament from 10pm Brussels time. The British, Cypriot, Czech, Dutch, Irish, Lithuanian, and Slovak outcomes should appear first.

When sufficient returns begin to suggest the likely make-up of the House, EUobserver will provide a prognosis of how the results will change the landscape of the assembly as well as comments from experts and insiders in Brussels and the member state capitals.

About the survey

Parties that belong to an EP political group or are members of the corresponding European political party are automatically included in the outgoing political group in this overview.

Parties currently represented among the non-attached members are automatically included in the non-attached category.

Parties whose affiliation has yet to be determined are automatically included in the "others" category. This "others" category is split equally between the right and the left of the hemicycle in order not to prejudge its political orientations.