VANCOUVER—In an election race that’s put the environment front and centre, a new poll shows 62 per cent of Canadians think the economy should shift away from oil and gas.

Sixty per cent also believe “global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities.”

Canadians are less familiar, however, with a non-partisan campaign that’s calling for more ambitious climate action. Thirty per cent of the 1,000 people who completed the Research Co. survey said they were either “moderately familiar” or “very familiar” with “the Pact for a Green New Deal.”

The online survey was conducted between July 15 and July 17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

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The Pact for a Green New Deal calls on Canada to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, while creating jobs and addressing inequality. The Canadian movement launched as a non partisan initiative with more than 150 partner organizations in May 2019, a few months after U.S. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tabled a resolution for a Green New Deal south of the border.

“There are definitely ideas in the Green New Deal that many Canadians believe should be implemented, but if you embrace the policy as a whole it could be quite complicated for all the parties,” said Mario Conseco, the president of Research Co.

“It’s an idea that resonates ... but it’s not going to be enough to make a voter who is concerned about health care, or the economy and jobs, or crime and public safety to say ‘Well I’m voting exclusively on the environment and climate change,’ ” he said.

When it comes to which party will win the environment vote, Canseco said it could come down to framing.

The Liberals could make gains by pushing for strategic voting, arguing the NDP and Greens are less likely to form government, he said.

“If you’re the Greens and the NDP, you have to say this is the time for bold action, this is a crisis that cannot wait, and if we wind up in a minority government situation you will want to have people like us to help with the balance of power,” he said.

The NDP in particular could be facing an uphill battle.

When asked which party is “better equipped to implement The Pact for a Green New Deal,” 26 per cent of respondents chose the Liberals, 23 per cent chose the Greens, 20 per cent selected no party, and 19 per cent opted for the Conservatives.

Eleven per cent chose the NDP.

Canseco said the result was “surprising,” considering the NDP’s “beefy” climate plan.

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The party’s poor showing could come down to a perception that the New Democrats aren’t a viable option for government.

“What I see here is a scenario where even the NDP voter is saying ‘I don’t think my party is going to be in the best position to do something like this because I don’t see the party forming the government,’ ” Canseco said.

NDP MP Peter Julian, who tabled a motion in Parliament calling for the government to create a Green New Deal, said the most notable result from the poll is the limited familiarity with the concept.

It indicates the work the party has left to do to, he said, and that’s why NDP candidates and party leader Jagmeet Singh are out talking to Canadians across the country about the party’s platform called “A New Deal for People.”

Julian, who represents the New Westminster—Burnaby riding, said he expects the NDP plan to both fight inequality and battle climate change will “increasingly resonate with people,” particularly the deeper into the campaign Canadians get.

“There’s just overwhelming evidence to show that Canadians are concerned about climate change,” said NDP strategist Anne McGrath, who recently joined the public relations firm Hill+Knowlton Strategies.

She’s not sure how much can be read into the result of poll done in the middle of July, though, adding there will be more eyes on the federal political scene as the official campaign period kicks off.

Meanwhile, McGrath said Singh’s perceived lack of recognition is an issue that will be dealt with during the leaders’ tour and debates.

“I expect him to do quite well, actually, partly because I think he’s a very compelling person with a very interesting story and he has opinions that I think will resonate with a lot of Canadians,” she said.

“Many of the pundits and political elites I think have written him off a little too quickly and low expectations are never a bad thing in politics.”

Read more:

NDP set to unveil $15-billion climate plan that would slash greenhouse gas emissions

The (small) Green Machine: How the Green party election campaign is gearing up for its biggest chance yet

‘Intense sense of emergency’ drives Canadian version of Green New Deal

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