One year from now, the Democrats will have chosen their presidential nominee and the general-election campaign will be underway.

Will Joe Biden or Kamala Harris or -- who knows? -- Steve Bullock look unbeatable as the race turns white-hot? Or will President Donald Trump rouse independents and use the power of incumbency to head into the homestretch as the favorite?

No one knows, but most everyone likes to guess. Politidope executive vice president Matt Rogers is splitting the difference by using data to estimate what the 2020 election results would be if people voted by state based on Trump’s job-approval rating right now. That produces an interesting Electoral College map, one that shows the Democratic nominee blowing past the 270 votes needed for election and making it all the way to 327. But it also indicates there’s a path for Trump to carve out a re-election victory if, as in 2016, the key votes fall his way.

Here is Donald Trump's approval rating today in all 50 states converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs daily tracking poll. https://t.co/I9N8fmN4KT pic.twitter.com/e9iMcO5JBB — Matt Rogers 🎙 (@Politidope) July 24, 2019

Republicans have reason to believe the actual Electoral College map will be redder on Election Day. The above map, based on data from analytics company Civiqs, has Georgia right now voting against Trump. But the Peach State has voted for every GOP nominee since 1996, and Republicans certainly will be looking to hold it in line. Other states in the blue category right now that normally are red: Arizona and North Carolina. (This map is also giving a few traditionally red states to Trump where he’s technically under 50 percent but within the margin of error. Examples: Florida, at 49 percent, and Texas, also at 49 percent.)

The key to the election will be the same as in 2016: the purple states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. They’re bluish at the moment. (Trump’s at 44 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and 45 percent in Wisconsin.) If Trump can reassemble his coalition in those states of working-class culture warriors and traditional white-collar economic conservatives, he will nail down his reelection.

Needless to say, to-be-determined factors ranging from who the Democrats ultimately nominate to the state of the economy in the fall of 2020 could scramble the race in currently unforeseen ways, flipping various states one way or the other.

Some basic national numbers from Civiqs:

Trump’s approval rating is just 43 percent. For Democrats who celebrate that unimpressive number, they shouldn’t get too cocky. President Barack Obama’s approval rating was only a few percentage points higher a year-and-a-half out from the 2012 election. Obama ended up with 332 electoral votes.

The demographic categories where Trump is strongest:

He’s at 53 percent with white Americans, 50 percent with Americans overall ages 50-64 and 51 percent with those 65 and older. He’s at 50 percent with men. And, of course, he’s at 90 percent with Republicans.

At the other end of the spectrum, he’s at 5 percent among African-Americans, 25 percent among Hispanics and 30 percent with Americans overall ages 18-34.

3 percent of Democrats approve of his job performance.

Check out more from Civiqs.

-- Douglas Perry

@douglasmperry

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