Could soon be rain clouds Steven J. Kazlowski/Alamy Stock Photo

The Arctic is set to get drenched in the next century.

Globally, precipitation is projected to increase by 2 per cent for every degree the planet warms, but in the Arctic that figure is double. By 2091, the Arctic will see a dramatic increase in overall precipitation and most of it won’t come in the form of snow – instead it will be rain.

“It’s quite a bit, a 50 to 60 per cent increase Arctic-wide. We found that most of this increase is due to the retreat of sea ice because of the Arctic warming,” says Richard Bintanja, a climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute who combined data from 37 climate models to predict precipitation in the Arctic between 2091 and 2100.


All the models agree that warming is an important factor, says Qinghua Ding, a climate researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who wasn’t involved in the study. “No matter where you are in the world, a temperature increase means the air can hold more moisture.”

Sea ice coverage in the Arctic has been plummeting for decades, and the region has repeatedly set record lows in recent years. When sea ice retreats, it uncovers vast open waters. This massively increases evaporation, leading to more clouds and more precipitation.

But instead of snow, the Arctic will receive downpours of rain. The cycle feeds itself – warming temperatures lead to more rain and more melting ice, which leads to more open water and even more rain.

“If the current trend proceeds – and all indications are that it will go even faster than predicted – then we’ll have a sea-ice-free Arctic,” Bintanja says. “You will be able to go to the North Pole just by ship.”

When it rains, it pours

“Eighty years from now, we don’t know how much CO 2 there will be, but I’m sure it will be very warm in the Arctic. And anthropogenic causes will overwhelm anything else,” Ding says.

The rise in rainfall will cause a cascade of effects, he says. Rain can melt snow that usually reflects light, leaving the land to absorb more heat from the sun. The run-off from melting snow can alter the salinity of the Arctic Ocean, which can harm marine species.

Winter rainfall and the subsequent loss of sea ice can threaten polar bear and reindeer populations too, because of the effect on their hunting grounds and the species they feed on.

So will these downpours rival the kind of rain we see farther south? Not year-round, says Ding. “In the present day Arctic, every year there’s maybe one week where it rains like London – but in the future maybe it would be more like one month like London,” he says.

Bintanja says the North Pole is likely to see the amount of yearly rain that usually falls at the edge of the Arctic in places like northern Norway or Alaska.

Journal reference: Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3240

Read more: Global sea ice has reached a record low – should we be worried?