Robert Alexander

Opinion contributor

Former Vice President Joe Biden has enjoyed his status as the Democratic front-runner over the past several months, yet his march to the nomination is far from certain. This is especially true when considering the wishes of party activists. While attention has centered on polling results, few observers have focused on the preferences of those most active within the party. What these individuals think of the playing field matters as their voices have an outsize effect upon outcomes.

Immediately following the 2016 election, I asked Democrats in the Electoral College an open-ended question about whom they would like to see at the top of their party’s ticket in 2020. Several indicated specifically that Biden was too old; another said they would like to see a younger Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. One very directly said the party needs a young stud. Generally, these partisans expressed a preference for a new face — someone younger, a person of color or a female.

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I have been surveying members of the Electoral College for the past five election cycles. Presidential electors are among the staunchest partisans in the country. Members of the body include party chairs, activists and big donors. In fact, 60% served previously as convention delegates.

If it were up to Democrats in the 2016 Electoral College, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts would be their choice in 2020. Nearly a third (31%) of those who expressed support for a particular candidate indicated they would like to see Warren run. Notably, Warren actually received two votes for vice president in the 2016 Electoral College. She was also a common choice among electors I surveyed shortly after the 2012 election. She clearly has support among Democrats who have served in the Electoral College.

Sanders received the next highest support with 13%. He also received a vote in the Electoral College when an elector from Hawaii chose him rather than Hillary Clinton. Sen. Kamala Harris of California came in third with 12%. Biden was the choice among 10% of electors, while Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York were the preferred candidates of 8% of Democratic electors.

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Interestingly, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama and even Oprah Winfrey were also mentioned as possible contenders among these 2016 Democratic electors.

More recently, political scientist Seth Masket has been interviewing Democratic party activists in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Washington, D.C., to determine their preferences for the party’s nominee. His findings are largely consistent with the desire for youth and diversity that electors indicated they wanted after the 2016 election.

The candidates winning the most commitments or consideration among these early state activists are Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Harris, Warren, Biden and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Sanders, Klobuchar, Gillibrand and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro are in the next tier. Of these two groups, Sanders notably registers the strongest opposition by these activists.

Activists matter in crowded field

Echoing the preferences of Democrats in the 2016 Electoral College, six of the nine top-rated Democrats are either women or persons of color. There are three white males and one of them — Buttigieg, at 37 — is the youngest of all the candidates. He would also be the first openly gay president to hold office. It would appear that party activists have embraced diversity and are excited about the prospects of having a woman or person of color face President Donald Trump.

This is bad news for Biden and Sanders, given that they are white, male septuagenarians who have been in public office for decades. Party activists have been reluctant to fully embrace either of them. This reticence could be due to the large number of people running for the nomination — including some with similar policy positions to Biden and Sanders but different backgrounds. To this point, Pew finds that Democrats are pleased with the field and are paying very close attention to the candidates.

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What party activists think is important, given their grassroots activity and the likelihood that they will work to convince fellow Democrats throughout the primary season. With their support, candidates have armies of the faithful poised to mobilize prospective voters. They can make a big difference, particularly with a crowded field.

Still, for Democrats, the 2020 election will be about defeating Trump. Nominating a candidate who gives Democrats the best chance to oust him will work to unify the party after what promises to be an ugly primary season. It is clear that Biden (and Sanders) will face resistance among those most active in the party. And while Biden has enjoyed a long run as the front-runner, it is apparent that many party faithful are excited to see someone else carry the torch.

Robert Alexander is a political science professor at Ohio Northern University and author of "Representation and the Electoral College." Follow him on Twitter: @onuprof