Buffett was Right about Sears Stock (SHLD)

The demise of Sears Stock (NASDAQ: SHLD) provides important lessons for every investor.

Media hype,

cult of personality,

overreaching,

management with different interests,

and other lessons can help investors avoid the next investment disaster.

Going Concern

After a recent $900 million sale of its Craftsman brand, store closures and other cost cuts, Sears warned late Tuesday that there’s “substantial doubt” that it will survive (via USA TODAY).

Lampert owns about 48% of Sears stock , according to the company’s annual report, including holdings through his hedge fund, ESL Investments. Besides his stock, Lampert holds about $381 million in unsecured notes issued to Sears.

, according to the company’s annual report, including holdings through his hedge fund, ESL Investments. Besides his stock, Lampert holds about $381 million in unsecured notes issued to Sears. USA TODAY estimates that the value of Lampert’s Sears stock has declined by roughly $519 million since the end of 2014.

Closing Stores:

Sears is closing over 100 more stores Sears told its employees Thursday that it will be shuttering over 100 more stores.

That consists of 64 Kmart stores and 39 Sears stores, all of which are expected to close between early March and April of this year.

Liquidation sales will begin as early as Jan. 12.







Retailing Is Hard

Warren Buffett (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) on why retailing is so hard:

“Retailing is like shooting at a moving target. In the past, people didn’t like to go excessive distances from the street cars to buy things. People would flock to those retailers that were nearby. In 1966 we bought the Hochschild Kohn department store in Baltimore. We learned quickly that it wasn’t going to be a winner, long-term, in a very short period of time. We had an antiquated distribution system. We did everything else right. We put in escalators. We gave people more credit. We had a great guy running it, and we still couldn’t win. So we sold it around 1970. That store isn’t there anymore. It isn’t good enough that there were smart people running it.” -Warren Buffett (via BI)

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Eddie Lampert:

AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) vs. Sears

This chart speaks for itself. It’s incredible. AutoZone shareholders have had an incredible run while Sears shareholders have suffered huge losses. And Eddie Lampert was running both companies.

Cult of Personality: The One Decision Stock

The pitch for investors via the media and some investors was that Sears was a one-decision stock, i.e. that investing alongside Eddie Lampert was the only decision an investor needed to make. And based on the performance of AutoZone, it was a simple decision.

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Media Infatuation: The Next Warren Buffett



Business week hailed Eddie Lampert as the “Next Buffett” in November 2004.

Under Lampert’s guidance, Kmart has recently posted four consecutive quarterly profits and generated heaps of cash, even as sales have continued to slide. Kmart on Wednesday announced a 13.7 percent drop in third-quarter sales.

The Next Warren Buffett? (Bloomberg Article)

Financier Eddie Lampert turned once-bankrupt Kmart into a $3 billion cash cow. Will he build it into a new Berkshire Hathaway? (via Bloomberg)

Past Performance Is No Guarantee

ESL Investments has returned an average of 29 percent a year since its inception, according to a Business week report, generally by building substantial positions in a few highly researched holdings. (via Business week) Failed Berkshire Strategy The Sears strategy was a risky strategy that didn’t actually simulate Berkshire Hathaway very much. Warren Buffett has used insurance companies like GEICO, which generate cash, to fuel his investing. Using a struggling retailer to generate cash to fuel an investment company was a risky idea. Read If I Ran Berkshire Hathaway here Concentrated Positions Eddie Lampert made his name in concentrated positions. For an investor, this is always a high-risk/high-reward strategy. For investors in AutoZone, it paid off. But for Sears shareholders, it has been a huge disappointment and learning experience. Leverage Retail is a very difficult business, and in the Internet age, even more so. The massive debt load that Sears has makes it that much more challenging. Leverage is risk. Any business becomes much harder when servicing a huge debt load.

Lampert & Buffett

Warren Buffett predicted the fall of Eddie Lampert and Sears over 10 years ago (via Business Insider) “Eddie is a very smart guy but putting Kmart and Sears together is a tough hand,” said Buffett to the Kansas crowd. “Turning around a retailer that has been slipping for a long time would be very difficult. Can you think of an example of a retailer that was successfully turned around?”

Selling Valuable Assets:

The problem with these transactions is that they reduced risk for Eddie Lampert and not for the average shareholder. The strategy was to sell off choice assets and have the remaining company be a pure-play retailer. And that retailer has been a disaster for shareholders, as losses mounted.

How Lampert retained assets even as Sears has shriveled:

•Lands’ End (NASDAQ: LE): Sears spun off retailer Lands’ End in 2014, but Lampert’s hedge fund owns 59% of the company. That stake was worth nearly $360 million as of Wednesday morning. •Real estate: Sears sold 235 store properties and its interest in another 31 properties to a newly formed real estate investment trust (REIT) called Seritage Growth Properties (NYSE :SRG) for $2.7 billion in 2015. The deal gave Seritage control of some of Sears’ best properties in a sale-leaseback transaction. Lampert’s ESL owns 43.5% of the limited partnership units of Seritage and 7.9% of the REIT’s voting power. •Real estate collateral: Entities affiliated with Lampert’s hedge fund extended $500 million in credit to Sears in January, secured by at least 46 Sears properties and possibly more. That means that in the event of bankruptcy, the lender may be awarded the property rights, giving Lampert control of those store sites. •Additional secured financing: ESL lenders provided Sears up to $500 million through a secured letter of credit facility in December, from which Sears has already drawn $200 million. ESL lenders also hold $336 million in secured debt issued to Sears in April through a separate facility and term loan, as well as $300 million in a second lien term loan issued in September. Secured lenders are paid first in bankruptcy. •Sears Canada (NASDAQ:SRSC): Sears partially spun off its Canadian division in 2012, but Lampert’s ESL owns about 45% of the company. That stake was worth nearly $80 million as of Wednesday morning. •Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores: Sears spun off the franchise in 2012, but ESL retains 57% ownership of the company. That stake was worth about $45 million as of Wednesday morning. “Financially he’s moved a lot of levers that have kept this company going longer than some of us thought it could,” But with “some of those levers you’re setting the furniture on fire to keep the house alive.”

Conclusion

The demise of Sears and the cult of Eddie Lampert as the next Warren Buffett provide lessons for every investor:

beware media infatuation,

leverage,

management interests not aligned with shareholders,

and always pay attention to cash flow.







