Oct 21, 2015

TEHRAN, Iran — When President Hassan Rouhani took office two years ago, there was some hope among Iranians that relations with Saudi Arabia could improve. But after the death of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, such hopes have faded as the new rulers in Riyadh continue to fail to show sufficient flexibility and eagerness about engagement with Iran. Indeed, things have turned out for the worse with the recent string of developments marring relations between Tehran and Riyadh. The last incident, the hajj stampede in which hundreds of Iranians were killed, caused great controversy and has deteriorated the situation. It will surely have domestic implications for both Iran and Saudi Arabia — and also internationally, as both countries seek more active and influential roles in the region.

For Iran, after some time of internal debate on how to deal with the kingdom, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could now score the initiative by taking the lead on foreign policy. Indeed, if there previously were differing voices in Iran on how to behave toward the Saudis, one can now see unity between the Rouhani administration and the wider political establishment’s positions toward Riyadh. This is happening against the backdrop of ongoing serious discussions in Tehran about the quality of engagement with the West.

Until recently, figures close to the Rouhani administration, and in particular the chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were seeking more engagement with the Saudis. The cornerstone of their approach was the assumption that such interaction could lessen the tensions in Iran’s relations with the Saudi royal family. This approach has been criticized at home, mostly by conservatives who argue that more engagement with the Saudis is possible in case Riyadh changes its approach toward Iran and some regional issues.

Given recent developments, and above all the war in Yemen and the hajj stampede, critics of outreach to the Saudis — backed by Iranian public sentiment, which is tilted against Riyadh — now have the upper hand in Tehran. Yet, of note, those favoring better relations with Riyadh have adapted to the situation and have now modified their positions and are on the same page as their conservative rivals.

When it comes to international implications of the hajj stampede for the Iranians, one needs to take note that the lack of a strong reaction against the Saudis could result in considerable damage to Iran’s image in the region, where Tehran is seeking to gain a better position after the nuclear deal. Indeed, a soft Iranian approach over the tragedy could be interpreted as passivity, which in turn signals a weaker Iranian position in dealing with the Saudis. A country that eyes a more active role in the region cannot succeed in its endeavor if there is an impression of it not being strong enough to handle its own bilateral issues with a competitor like Saudi Arabia. However, a timely and good reaction could have the opposite effect.