PARIS — A prospective Indian order of the Dassault Aviation Rafale fighter jet is representative of offering long-term ties with France, a link that would help strengthen French security interests in the Indian Ocean, said Camille Grand, the next NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment.



Grand, who is currently the director of the think tank Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, will leave FRS and take up the post at NATO on Oct. 4, succeeding Patrick Auroy, a former senior official of Direction Générale de l'Armement, the French procurement office.



The NATO brief for Grand includes management of three key programs, namely ballistic missile defense, alliance ground surveillance, and the next-generation airborne warning and control system.



"For France, India is of major importance," Camille told Defense News. A deal with India, a major power, is "very special as India has been a customer since the early 1980s," he said. Dassault initially pitched its Mirage 2000 before offering the Rafale in New Delhi's search for medium multirole combat aircraft.



"We're close to a conclusion," he said. The negotiations have been extremely complex, reflecting organizational complexity of the Indian government. A deal would open the door to long-term cooperation, as India will not stop at 36 units and intends to develop a fighter fleet over time. "I remain optimistic, and very cautious on the timeline," he said.



A pick by the Indian Air Force would be a major reference for the Rafale, which has already won deals with Egypt and Qatar, he said.



Winning an arms deal with New Delhi also has a geopolitical significance as France has long-standing defense and security interests in the Indian Ocean, along with India and Australia, he said.



France sees a role in the Pacific — a view shared by Britain — although that is more limited than the US interest. But the countries in the Asia-Pacific region are keen to see a European engagement, to rely not solely on the US.



An Australian submarine contract with DCNS would be a major success for prime contractor DCNS and subcontractor Thales. "This the largest contract for conventional submarines in decades," Grand said.



× Fear of missing out? Sign up for the Early Bird Brief, the defense industry's most comprehensive news and information, straight to your inbox. Thanks for signing up. By giving us your email, you are opting in to the Early Bird Brief.

The Australian Navy has a high requirement, one of a handful of navies that wants an ocean-class submarine, he said. There has been tough competition from Germany and Japan.



"The Australian government decision was fully based on the know-how in French industry," he said. The ability to build a nuclear ballistic missile submarine played a role on developing a large, long-range submarine, even though the Australian Shortfin Barracuda will be powered by conventional diesel-electric propulsion.



"That probably made a big difference," he said. "Competitors lacked that capability."



Australian procurement is totally separate from politics, he said. Australia picked the Airbus Tiger attack helicopter when then=Australian Prime Minister John Howard held close ties with then-US President George W. Bush.



"The Australians have a very serious capability to assess the requirement and engage with industry to meet the needs," he said. "The decision in procurement was primarily based on technology and military requirements." The Barracuda submarines will be equipped with US combat systems, which allow them to be fully interoperable with the US Navy.



This commercial success will structure the submarine business and give DCNS an edge over the competition, he said. This was a harsh lesson for Japan on a first major defense contract abroad, requiring a review of their process.



This is good news for DCNS, though Australia will manage a large part of the program, he said. France is expected to receive around a quarter or a fifth of the program, estimated to be worth a total A$50 billion (US $38 billion).



On the media leak on the DCNS Scorpene submarine for India, there are "dirty tricks" in the arms business, with the leaks often arriving at a sensitive time in negotiations, Grand said. Australia is right to ask for tight security procedures and it remains to be seen if the Indian submarine has truly been compromised.



On the UK vote to leave the European Union, or Brexit, Grand described it is a blow to common security and defense policy but something that will not signal the end of defense cooperation in Europe. The UK could cooperate closely with the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy, along the lines of Turkey contributing to the EU Althea military operation in Bosnia, even though Ankara is outside the EU.

Deepening European defense cooperation will primarily require a political commitment by the head of state and head of government, as the institutional and legal frameworks are already in place. In the 1990s and 2000s, the institutional framework of European defense was developed, including the European battle groups. To date, those projects largely failed to deliver significant EU capabilities and operations.

There was little EU inclination toward defense in the last 10 years, but now there is more interest, he said.



For NATO members, there is commitment to spend 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, but there is also an EU target under the Maastricht Treaty to limit the national deficit to 3 percent of GDP.

For NATO members, there is commitment to spend 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, but there is also an EU target under the Maastricht Treaty to limit the national deficit to 3 percent of GDP.

"This could be finessed," he said. There could be negotiations on excluding specific defense spending, such as research and technology or operations, from the deficit target.



Generally, French public opinion supports defense spending, as people understand there's a need to do more on domestic and international security, he said.



There is also a NATO target of 20 percent in defense investment, which is harder to hit for many allies, he said. The NATO target of 2 percent is by comparison an easy target. Back in 1991, French annual defense spending was around 2.5–3 percent, or some €58 billion in 2016 euros (US $65 billion), compared to €32-34 billion today. Increasing spending by €5 billion over a few years to reach a total €40 billion per year is attainable, he said.



As an example, money could be found in continuing reforms such as government spending on housing policy, where there is government subsidy for rent paid on privately owned housing pushing rental prices up.



"That is absurd," he said, noting that there is funding from central government to local councils, with tens of billions sent over the last 20 years that have not always been wisely spent.



After eight years as head of a think tank, Grand sees a need to fully assess the strategic shift in the security environment, particularly at the political level. People in Europe expect life to go back to normal; terrorism will vanish; the east or south flank will stabilize with help of a magic wand; relations with Russia will return to normal, he said.