The NBA Season didn’t quite go ‘according to script’ last year. The Golden State Warriors looked like a cinch to defend their NBA title as they ran roughshod over everyone during the regular season. Golden State set any number of records during the 2015-2016 campaign including the most wins by a team in a season (73-9) breaking the previous record set by Michael Jordan’s 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Everything looked to be going as expected during the NBA Finals despite injuries to Golden State’s superstar guard Stephen Curry as the Warriors shot out to a 3-1 advantage over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The momentum swung completely the other way with Cleveland winning the next three games including two on Golden State’s home court to win the NBA Championship.

Off an amazing but ultimately disappointing season last year Golden State has ‘doubled down’ and added former Oklahoma City Thunder guard Kevin Durant. Durant signed a two year deal with the Warriors in July becoming the fourth All Star on the Golden State roster. The fans and media have already dubbed the team’s nucleus of stars as ‘The Fantastic Four’. With all of the offseason chatter about Golden State it’s easy to forget about the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs didn’t change much during the off season though they did lose several key reserves (Matthew Dellavedova, Mo Williams and Timofey Mozgov). It’s still LeBron’s team and he’s started to talk about running down Michael Jordan’s career championship total. LeBron is just 31 and has three but MJ finished with six. If it’s going to happen, a repeat this year is almost essential.

A new NBA season brings with it a multitude of predictions and ‘storylines’ to keep things interesting until the playoffs. Obviously, there’s no better way to get a comprehensive overview of all of these than by looking at the NBA betting odds for the 2016-2017 season:

NBA 2016-2017 BETTING ODDS

TEAM CHAMPIONSHIP AND DIVISIONAL ODDS:

2017 NBA Championship–Odds to Win:



Golden State Warriors: -125

Cleveland Cavailers: +300

San Antonio Spurs: +900

Boston Celtics: +1800

Los Angeles Clippers: +2500

Toronto Raptors: +4000

Oklahoma City Thunder: +4000

Chicago Bulls: +4000

Indiana Pacers: +6600

Minnesota Timberwolves: +6600

New York Knicks: +6600

Memphis Grizzlies: +6600

Portland Trailblazers: +7500

Miami Heat: +10000

Atlanta Hawks: +10000

Houston Rockets: +10000

New Orleans Pelicans: +10000

Detroit Pistons: +10000

Washington Wizards: +10000

Milwaukee Bucks: +10000

Utah Jazz: +10000

Dallas Mavericks: +20000

Los Angeles Lakers: +20000

Orlando Magic: +20000

Charlotte Hornets: +30000

Denver Nuggets: +50000

Sacramento Kings: +50000

Philadelphia 76ers: +50000

Brooklyn Nets: +50000

The expectation is that it’ll be the Warriors and the Cavaliers battling for the NBA Title once again in 2016-2017. No surprise that the Warriors are favored–there’s a sense that they’ve got ‘unfinished business’ and made a serious effort to upgrade their team (tough to do with a team that won 73 games). Adding Durant gives them another dependable scorer that can play decent defense. Golden State will be hard pressed to repeat last year’s win total but Steve Kerr’s team would likely trade a few regular season victories for a NBA Championship.

Cleveland didn’t look like a championship team for much of the regular season last year but they definitely peaked at the right time to claim the crown. They’re taking a ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ approach and made only minor changes to the roster. The Cavs brought in forward Mike Dunleavy who is a bit long in the tooth but otherwise a hard working, versatile player that can play on both ends of the court.

The other team at single digit odds is the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio will have to fill the vacancy caused by Tim Duncan’s retirement after 19 years. It’s one thing to replace his ‘numbers’ but another thing entirely to find someone capable of stepping into his role as team leader. The team will now be built around Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol (who is getting up there as well at age 37) and LaMarcus Aldridge. There’s a lot of talent and head coach Gregg Popovich is one of the best in the business but he’ll have to turn in a remarkable and rapid ‘reboot’ of this team if they’re to contend for a title.

2017 Eastern Conference Champion:



Cleveland Cavaliers: -215

Boston Celtics: +500

Toronto Raptors: +1400

Atlanta Hawks: +2500

Chicago Bulls: +2500

Indiana Pacers: +2800

New York Knicks: +2800

Detroit Pistons: +4000

Miami Heat: +4000

Milwaukee Bucks: +4000

Washington Wizards: +4000

Orlando Magic: +5000

Charlotte Hornets: +10000

Philadelphia 76ers: +15000

Brooklyn Nets: +20000

Were this wager on the best regular season in the West there might be value looking past the Cleveland Cavaliers. After all, the Toronto Raptors finished just 1 game back of the Cavs last season. It’s hard seeing any of the teams seeking to knock Cleveland off of their Eastern Conference throne being able to do so in a 7 game series. The Boston Celtics are improving rapidly under former Butler University head coach Brad Stevens and the Toronto Raptors very quietly matched the Cavs nearly game for game during the regular season. That being said, they still have to stop LeBron and company in a 7 game series and that’s easier said that done at this point of his career.

2017 Western Conference Champion:



Golden State Warriors: -250

San Antonio Spurs: +450

Los Angeles Clippers: +1200

Oklahoma City Thunder: +20000

Minnesota Timberwolves: +3300

Memphis Grizzlies: +3300

Houston Rockets: +5000

New Orleans Pelicans: +5000

Portland Trailblazers: +5000

Utah Jazz: +5000

Dallas Mavericks: +10000

Denver Nuggets: +15000

Los Angeles Lakers: +15000

Phoenix Suns: +25000

Pro wrestling legend ‘Nature Boy’ Ric Flair was fond of saying: “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man”. That’s the situation in the West where it’s clearly Golden State and everybody else. The Spurs are a big question mark–they had a great season last year but will be starting the ‘post Tim Duncan era’ and it’ll be tough to get the team back into championship form so quickly. Barring injury, hard to see anyone stopping the Golden State Warriors as they look to return to the NBA Finals.

NBA PLAYER/COACH PROP BET ODDS

To win the 2016-2017 NBA MVP:



Russell Westbrook: +200

Stephen Curry: +400

LeBron James: +450

Kevin Durant: +1000

Anthony Davis: +1000

Kawhi Leonard: +1000

James Harden: +1600

Paul George: +2200

Blake Griffin: +3300

Damien Lilard: +3300

Kyrie Irving: +3300

DeMarcus Cousins: +3300

Chris Paul: +3300

Carmello Anthony: +3300

Stephen Curry won the regular season MVP Award last year with LeBron James winning the playoff MVP Award. So why is Russell Westbrook favored? If the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to have any success without Kevin Durant, Westbrook will have to have a monster season. He led the league with 18 ‘triple doubles’ last year so he can do it all–and he’ll have to do it all with Durant now playing with the Warriors. As for the rest of the list there’s a lot of variables that need to work out perfectly for anyone other than Westbrook, Curry or LeBron to win. The Portland Trailblazers’ talented guard Damien Lilard might be the best value at +3300–there were several stretches last season where no one in the league played better.

Will a member of the Golden State Warriors win the 2016-2017 regular season MVP award?



Yes: +190

No: -225

You may have noticed that the Golden State Warriors have two of the top four choices to win the MVP award (Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant). At this point, it’s hard to see anyone other than Curry being the ‘most valuable player’ on the team, let alone in the league but if you want to ‘hedge your bets’ and cover the entire Warriors’ roster this is the way to do it.

To Win NBA Rookie of the Year



Ben Simmons: +200

Brandon Ingram: +330

Kris Dunn: +350

Joel Embiid: +700

Buddy Hield: +800

Dario Saric: +1600

Jamal Murray: +2000

Thon Maker: +2200

Dragan Bender: +2200

Jaylen Brown: +2500

Denzel Valentine: +2500

DeAndre Bembry: +3300

Marquese Chriss: +4000

Caris LeVert: +4000

Wade Baldwin: +4000

Domantas Sabonis: +4000

Taurean Prince: +5000

Brice Johnson: +5000

It definitely *won’t* be Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons–it was reported earlier this evening that he could miss the entire season with a foot fracture. The Sixers have held out their last two #1 draft choices for their first year–not that it’s made any difference in Philadelphia’s miserable performances. That makes the Lakers’ Brandon Ingram the favorite at +330. At age 19, Ingram needs to ‘bulk up’ considerably but on an otherwise forgettable Lakers’ roster he might get a fair amount of playing time. Los Angeles is in their first year of the ‘post Kobe Bryant’ era and are coming off a 17–65 season–the worst in franchise history. In Luke Walton’s first year as head coach he likely realizes that any sign of improvement will benefit his long term employment prospects and that makes letting Ingram ‘learn on the job’ more likely.

To Win NBA Scoring Title



Russell Westbrook: +250

James Harden: +300

Stephen Curry: +400

Kevin Durant: +450

Blake Griffin: +550

DeMarcus Cousins: +700

Damian Lillard: +1100

LeBron James: +1100

Anthony Davis: +2200

Paul George: +2200

Kyrie Irving: +2200

DeMar DeRozan: +4000

Carmelo Anthony: +4000

Chris Bosh: +6000

Dwyane Wade: +6000

Isaiah Thomas: +6000

Kawhi Leonard: +6000

Kemba Walker: +7500

Andrew Wiggins: +7500

Kyle Lowrey: +7500

Brook Lopez: +9000

C.J. McCollum: +9000

Gordon Hayward: +10000

There’s clearly a theory at work here and in the MVP odds and that’s why Russell Westbrook is the top choice in both. Westbrook was part of a one-two punch with Kevin Durant last year and is expected to be ‘the man’ this year. Conversely, Steph Curry now has Durant to bear some of the scoring load which is why he’s not favored. The problem is that this formula doesn’t necessarily work out like people think. Westbrook won’t necessarily score twice as much as he did last year. His job is tougher now that teams can double team him and don’t have to keep an eye out for Durant. Likewise, the rationale that “Curry scored X last season so with Durant on board he’ll score X/2” also isn’t inviolable. Curry now has a perfect ‘decoy’ and a dangerous scorer to keep defenses from collapsing in on him. Translation–Curry could repeat as scoring leader and looks like a nice value at +400. Ditto LeBron at +1100. He finished #5 in the scoring race last year and despite many appearances in the top 5 he’s never won the scoring title.

To Win NBA Coach of the Year



Steve Kerr: +400

Gregg Popovich: +400

Tyronn Lue: +450

Tom Thibodeau: +800

Doc Rivers: +900

Brad Stevens: +900

Quin Snyder: +1400

Jeff Hornacek: +1800

Mike Budenholzer: +2500

Luke Walton: +2500

Fred Hoiberg: +2500

Erik Spoelstra: +2500

Alvin Gentry: +2500

Terry Stotts: +3300

Scott Brooks: +3300

Nate McMillan: +3300

Jason Kidd: +3300

Dwane Casey: +3300

David Fizdale: +3300

Mike D’Antoni: +4000

Billy Donovan: +4000

Steve Clifford: +50000

Stan Van Gundy: +5000

Frank Vogel: +5000

Brett Brown: +5000

Rick Carlisle: +6600

Mike Maline: +15000

Earl Watson: +15000

Dave Jorerger: +15000

Kenny Atkinson: +20000

Golden State Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr is the reigning NBA ‘Coach of the Year’. Only one active coach has won this award more than once (Gregg Popovich is a three time winner) and only seven coaches in history have won the award in multiple years. This award doesn’t necessarily go to the coach of the best team. It’s often awarded to a coach that produces better than expected results in a tough situation or whose team shows the most improvement year over year. Based on the latter metric, Boston Celtics’ head coach Brad Stevens could be a nice value position at +900. If Jeff Hornacek can coax some improvement and consistency out of the dysfunctional New York Knicks he could win the award at +1800. This looks like a category in which to avoid the favorites–for the Warriors’ Steve Kerr there’s nowhere to go but down after winning 72 games. Gregg Popovich has to replace Tim Duncan and Tyronn Lue is one of the coaches that might not get the credit he deserves due to the number of superstars on his roster. One interesting longshot immediately pops out–Portland Trailblazers’ coach Terry Stotts at +3300.