Week 2 was all about surprises. Some surprise upsets — yay Chargers! — and some closer games than many expected (I'm looking at you, Denver).

If Week 1 was all about jumping to conclusions, then Week 2 was all about those conclusions being shaken. Last week, Minnesota was looking like one impressive team and people were jumping on the Minnesota Karma Train. Then the Patriots rolled into town and spoiled the party faster than when your neighbor called the cops on you when you had that party in 10th grade while your parents were out of town.

With 1/8th of the season done, are we any closer to knowing which teams are good and which aren't? Not really, yet. It usually takes about 4 games to get an idea of where teams stand. Or, in the case of the Chargers historically, we won't know until December.

Notable Quotes

The Chargers shocked the world by beating the Seahawks, and while their defense made some timely plays, this win was all about Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates. Rivers made big plays despite facing consistent pressure on almost every drop back and Gates looked 10 years younger, catching all seven targets for 96 yards and three TDs. - Fox Sports

How did they average 2 yards per rush yet hold the ball for 42 minutes in ambush of Seahawks? Whatever works. Kudos. - USA Today

Big-league win over the Seahawks. How the 34-year-old Antonio Gates still gets open is absolutely, utterly amazing. Can you imagine what his combine numbers would be now? It doesn't matter; he's still good and shifty in a way that only the 55-year-old who embarrasses you at the rec center can be. I got this dude wearing the sports goggles from 1985 and the tube socks and the Waylon Jennings concert tee, you think, before he pulls a jump hook with a hairy arm all up in your grill.



Yeah, so that's what the Seahawks' linebackers felt like on Sunday ... probably. - NFL.com

Division Averages

Division Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference NFC West 11.1184 11.8452 -0.7268 AFC East 15.6184 13.9048 1.7136 AFC North 16.4342 14.7500 1.6842 NFC North 14.5395 14.8929 -0.3534 NFC South 13.5789 16.7738 -3.1949 AFC West 17.8947 18.0952 -0.2005 NFC East 21.9605 19.5119 2.4486 AFC South 20.8553 22.2262 -1.3709

Stock Rising

Team Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference BUF 20.691 11.389 9.302 CHI 19.548 10.389 9.159 DAL 26.839 19.319 7.520 HOU 23.536 16.764 6.772 BAL 18.845 12.444 6.401

Oh, great. The Chargers next opponent is the one surging the most in the rankings. Are they for real? Read on and we might be able to find out.

Stock Falling

Team Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference NO 8.958 15.833 -6.875 MIN 14.214 20.764 -6.550 TEN 16.554 22.750 -6.196 ATL 11.393 17.097 -5.704 SF 3.155 8.569 -5.414

Subjective Average

Subjective Broncos 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1.250 0.750 Seahawks 2 2 4 2 4 1 7 2 2 1 2 2 2.583 -1.500 Bengals 3 3 2 3 1 5 2 3 3 3 5 3 3.000 2.333 Panthers 6 4 5 4 3 6 4 4 4 4 8 5 4.750 5.750 Eagles 4 5 6 5 5 7 3 6 6 6 3 4 5.000 0.750 Patriots 5 6 7 6 8 3 10 8 9 5 4 7 6.500 1.333 Cardinals 9 7 3 7 6 8 5 9 8 10 10 6 7.333 4.084 49ers 7 8 8 8 11 9 12 5 5 7 7 8 7.917 -4.750 Packers 8 10 10 9 9 4 8 7 7 9 6 10 8.083 -0.916 Chargers 10 9 12 10 7 12 6 18 10 8 9 9 10.000 6.250 Bears 11 12 9 12 10 13 11 13 11 11 15 12 11.667 8.000 Ravens 13 13 14 13 13 10 14 14 12 17 13 14 13.333 3.500 Bills 12 14 15 11 12 18 9 19 13 16 14 11 13.667 9.000 Colts 15 11 13 16 16 15 18 10 17 12 11 13 13.917 -3.417 Saints 16 16 24 18 21 11 16 11 16 14 12 17 16.000 -9.083 Falcons 17 19 11 14 17 14 15 20 15 15 18 18 16.083 -5.583 Lions 18 15 18 21 15 17 19 17 19 13 20 16 17.333 -3.833 Texans 14 18 17 15 18 19 24 15 14 19 25 15 17.750 5.750 Steelers 19 20 16 20 22 16 20 12 18 21 19 20 18.583 -5.416 Dolphins 20 17 19 17 14 24 13 21 22 18 21 21 18.917 -4.667 Jets 21 21 20 19 19 20 17 16 21 20 16 19 19.083 -1.666 Browns 23 22 21 23 20 21 22 23 23 23 22 25 22.333 5.500 Cowboys 22 23 26 22 24 23 21 22 25 22 17 22 22.417 4.833 Vikings 26 24 22 25 23 27 23 24 20 26 23 26 24.083 -5.083 Titans 24 25 27 26 25 26 25 25 26 24 26 23 25.167 -4.917 Redskins 25 27 25 24 26 22 27 27 27 27 28 24 25.750 3.583 Chiefs 27 26 29 27 27 28 26 28 24 25 24 27 26.500 -2.833 Rams 28 29 23 28 28 25 28 26 28 29 30 28 27.500 2.500 Giants 30 28 28 30 29 30 30 29 29 28 27 29 28.917 -3.417 Buccaneers 29 30 30 29 30 29 29 31 30 30 31 30 29.833 -3.666 Jaguars 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 31 32 29 31 30.833 -2.583 Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 31.917 -0.584

Observations:

Seattle loses, so the Broncos take over the top spot. Though, NFL.com putting the Seahawks at 7th? That's a little harsh.

Not sure I agree either with PFT keeping the Seahawks at the top of the list.

Oh look! The Bengals have a first-place vote!

The Chargers jump 6 spots this week. They dropped just under 5 spots last week, so they're a little higher than when they started the season.

Giants are in a free fall. Cowboys are starting to surge.

Raiders are settling in at the bottom.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 0.276 -0.469 Broncos 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 0.433 0.025 Jaguars 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 31 32 29 31 0.687 -1.051 Buccaneers 29 30 30 29 30 29 29 31 30 30 31 30 0.687 -1.791 Giants 30 28 28 30 29 30 30 29 29 28 27 29 0.954 -1.148 Titans 24 25 27 26 25 26 25 25 26 24 26 23 1.067 -1.454 Bengals 3 3 2 3 1 5 2 3 3 3 5 3 1.080 -0.466 Eagles 4 5 6 5 5 7 3 6 6 6 3 4 1.225 -0.821 Browns 23 22 21 23 20 21 22 23 23 23 22 25 1.247 -0.525 Panthers 6 4 5 4 3 6 4 4 4 4 8 5 1.299 -1.954 Bears 11 12 9 12 10 13 11 13 11 11 15 12 1.491 -0.794 Chiefs 27 26 29 27 27 28 26 28 24 25 24 27 1.500 -1.093 Ravens 13 13 14 13 13 10 14 14 12 17 13 14 1.546 -0.317 Seahawks 2 2 4 2 4 1 7 2 2 1 2 2 1.605 1.329 Redskins 25 27 25 24 26 22 27 27 27 27 28 24 1.689 -0.240 Packers 8 10 10 9 9 4 8 7 7 9 6 10 1.754 -0.790 Jets 21 21 20 19 19 20 17 16 21 20 16 19 1.754 -0.711 Rams 28 29 23 28 28 25 28 26 28 29 30 28 1.848 -0.234 Vikings 26 24 22 25 23 27 23 24 20 26 23 26 1.935 0.780 49ers 7 8 8 8 11 9 12 5 5 7 7 8 1.977 1.290 Patriots 5 6 7 6 8 3 10 8 9 5 4 7 1.979 -0.532 Cardinals 9 7 3 7 6 8 5 9 8 10 10 6 2.014 -0.485 Cowboys 22 23 26 22 24 23 21 22 25 22 17 22 2.139 -0.447 Lions 18 15 18 21 15 17 19 17 19 13 20 16 2.211 -0.221 Falcons 17 19 11 14 17 14 15 20 15 15 18 18 2.431 -0.135 Colts 15 11 13 16 16 15 18 10 17 12 11 13 2.499 -0.194 Steelers 19 20 16 20 22 16 20 12 18 21 19 20 2.629 0.085 Bills 12 14 15 11 12 18 9 19 13 16 14 11 2.838 1.347 Chargers 10 9 12 10 7 12 6 18 10 8 9 9 2.944 0.857 Dolphins 20 17 19 17 14 24 13 21 22 18 21 21 3.121 -0.882 Texans 14 18 17 15 18 19 24 15 14 19 25 15 3.491 1.274 Saints 16 16 24 18 21 11 16 11 16 14 12 17 3.697 1.720

Observations:

More consensus of the Raiders being 32nd than the Broncos being 1st.

Most teams saw their rankings consistency improve this week. So we are getting closer to knowing how teams stack up, but we're not quite there yet.

6 of the 7 least-consistently-ranked teams are AFC teams (Chargers included)

How about them Saints?

Objective Average

Objective Bengals 5 1 7 4 2 7 3 6 4 4.333 3.524 Seahawks 2 5 1 10 14 15 6 1 1 6.111 -3.682 Patriots 3 6 4 11 9 5 7 8 7 6.667 5.619 Broncos 1 10 2 15 4 25 9 2 2 7.778 -4.492 Panthers 10 7 14 7 13 13 4 4 3 8.333 0.810 Cardinals 14 3 15 3 6 19 12 3 6 9.000 2.286 Bills 11 2 24 1 16 1 1 10 16 9.111 9.603 Bears 6 8 9 5 5 2 16 12 19 9.111 10.318 49ers 8 11 3 9 24 4 14 5 5 9.222 -6.079 Chargers 12 4 12 8 17 11 18 7 10 11.000 3.571 Ravens 18 13 16 14 3 9 10 13 8 11.556 9.301 Eagles 9 12 8 12 11 26 13 9 12 12.444 -0.873 Dolphins 25 9 20 6 12 3 17 16 14 13.556 -1.270 Lions 16 19 10 17 10 21 8 17 17 15.000 -3.000 Saints 7 20 6 26 20 16 20 15 11 15.667 -4.667 Texans 24 26 27 2 8 10 5 25 15 15.778 7.793 Packers 4 16 5 20 25 24 22 14 13 15.889 -0.603 Cowboys 22 17 19 16 7 6 24 11 24 16.222 10.207 Redskins 13 29 21 13 1 17 2 30 20 16.222 8.492 Vikings 21 15 25 23 15 8 21 20 9 17.444 -8.015 Falcons 17 18 11 19 22 12 27 19 18 18.111 -5.825 Titans 20 25 29 22 18 14 11 21 23 20.333 -7.476 Steelers 15 14 18 21 29 20 26 24 27 21.556 -5.127 Jets 19 23 26 25 19 27 15 27 25 22.889 -3.175 Colts 26 22 13 18 27 30 25 22 26 23.222 -3.936 Browns 27 21 30 24 21 18 19 26 29 23.889 1.111 Buccaneers 23 28 22 32 23 22 23 29 28 25.556 -3.270 Rams 28 24 28 31 28 23 31 18 21 25.778 -0.207 Chiefs 30 30 17 30 30 29 28 23 30 27.444 -2.444 Giants 29 27 23 27 31 31 32 28 22 27.778 -2.635 Raiders 31 32 31 28 26 28 30 31 31 29.778 -3.921 Jaguars 32 31 32 29 32 32 29 32 32 31.222 -1.936

Observations:

Unlike the subjective list, the Broncos aren't in first place in the Objective list. In fact, they're "4th" with an average ranking around almost 8th. However, PFR's ranking of them at 25th does kind of skew the numbers.

Bengals atop the Objective list.

Jacksonville is the one settling down at the bottom here, not Oakland.

Chargers are in the top-12 of this list on average; including a 4th-place ranking on Team Rankings.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Jaguars 32 31 32 29 32 32 29 32 32 1.227 -1.830 Raiders 31 32 31 28 26 28 30 31 31 1.873 -5.676 Bengals 5 1 7 4 2 7 3 6 4 2.000 0.645 Patriots 3 6 4 11 9 5 7 8 7 2.357 -5.365 Giants 29 27 23 27 31 31 32 28 22 3.292 -2.549 Buccaneers 23 28 22 32 23 22 23 29 28 3.500 -0.381 Jets 19 23 26 25 19 27 15 27 25 4.012 0.478 Panthers 10 7 14 7 13 13 4 4 3 4.055 -1.028 Browns 27 21 30 24 21 18 19 26 29 4.122 -2.969 Chargers 12 4 12 8 17 11 18 7 10 4.243 -1.560 Rams 28 24 28 31 28 23 31 18 21 4.263 -0.970 Lions 16 19 10 17 10 21 8 17 17 4.269 -2.534 Chiefs 30 30 17 30 30 29 28 23 30 4.272 -1.126 Ravens 18 13 16 14 3 9 10 13 8 4.298 -0.757 Falcons 17 18 11 19 22 12 27 19 18 4.533 1.669 Colts 26 22 13 18 27 30 25 22 26 4.871 -0.248 Steelers 15 14 18 21 29 20 26 24 27 5.014 -0.025 Eagles 9 12 8 12 11 26 13 9 12 5.058 1.135 Titans 20 25 29 22 18 14 11 21 23 5.164 -2.460 Bears 6 8 9 5 5 2 16 12 19 5.259 -2.429 Seahawks 2 5 1 10 14 15 6 1 1 5.301 3.172 Vikings 21 15 25 23 15 8 21 20 9 5.698 -1.144 Cardinals 14 3 15 3 6 19 12 3 6 5.735 -0.606 49ers 8 11 3 9 24 4 14 5 5 6.214 4.969 Saints 7 20 6 26 20 16 20 15 11 6.272 -1.018 Cowboys 22 17 19 16 7 6 24 11 24 6.494 2.682 Dolphins 25 9 20 6 12 3 17 16 14 6.517 1.990 Packers 4 16 5 20 25 24 22 14 13 7.264 -0.731 Broncos 1 10 2 15 4 25 9 2 2 7.569 5.903 Bills 11 2 24 1 16 1 1 10 16 7.951 1.934 Texans 24 26 27 2 8 10 5 25 15 9.331 3.455 Redskins 13 29 21 13 1 17 2 30 20 9.693 3.943

Observations:

Relative consistency at the top and bottom of the board.

Chargers are actually in the top third when it comes to rankings consistency. Though it's not quite that consistent yet.

Depending on the metric, the Bears are doing well, or mediocre.

Wow, Washington. Anywhere from 1st to 30th rankings. Texans not far behind with a 2nd-27th.

The Bills, while ranked well in most rankings, aren't very consistently ranked.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Bengals 3.000 4.333 3.667 2.928 Seahawks 2.583 6.111 4.347 -2.591 Broncos 1.250 7.778 4.514 -1.871 Panthers 4.750 8.333 6.542 3.279 Patriots 6.500 6.667 6.583 3.477 Cardinals 7.333 9.000 8.167 3.184 49ers 7.917 9.222 8.569 -5.414 Eagles 5.000 12.444 8.722 -0.061 Bears 11.667 9.111 10.389 9.159 Chargers 10.000 11.000 10.500 4.911 Bills 13.667 9.111 11.389 9.302 Packers 8.083 15.889 11.986 -0.760 Ravens 13.333 11.556 12.444 6.401 Saints 16.000 15.667 15.833 -6.875 Lions 17.333 15.000 16.167 -3.417 Dolphins 18.917 13.556 16.236 -2.968 Texans 17.750 15.778 16.764 6.772 Falcons 16.083 18.111 17.097 -5.704 Colts 13.917 23.222 18.569 -3.676 Cowboys 22.417 16.222 19.319 7.520 Steelers 18.583 21.556 20.069 -5.271 Vikings 24.083 17.444 20.764 -6.550 Jets 19.083 22.889 20.986 -2.420 Redskins 25.750 16.222 20.986 6.038 Titans 25.167 20.333 22.750 -6.196 Browns 22.333 23.889 23.111 3.306 Rams 27.500 25.778 26.639 1.147 Chiefs 26.500 27.444 26.972 -2.639 Buccaneers 29.833 25.556 27.694 -3.468 Giants 28.917 27.778 28.347 -3.026 Raiders 31.917 29.778 30.847 -2.252 Jaguars 30.833 31.222 31.028 -2.260

Observations:

The Bengals take the top spot on this week's Overall Average board.

Seahawks now ranked slightly above the Broncos. Sunday's matchup should be a great one.

Chargers just slightly ahead of the Bills, but it's close. Another good matchup for Sunday (on paper).

Jaguars and Raiders fighting for scraps at the bottom. Is the lack of Blake Bortles the only problem in Jacksonville?

My how the mighty have fallen in Kansas City.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Jaguars 30.833 31.222 0.976 -1.391 Raiders 31.917 29.778 1.633 -3.689 Bengals 3.000 4.333 1.678 -0.237 Patriots 6.500 6.667 2.151 -3.378 Giants 28.917 27.778 2.342 -1.581 Browns 22.333 23.889 2.960 -1.770 Chiefs 26.500 27.444 3.054 -0.870 Buccaneers 29.833 25.556 3.162 -0.434 Ravens 13.333 11.556 3.171 -0.750 Rams 27.500 25.778 3.235 -0.935 Panthers 4.750 8.333 3.340 -0.738 Lions 17.333 15.000 3.455 -1.162 Jets 19.083 22.889 3.493 0.384 Chargers 10.000 11.000 3.593 -0.383 Falcons 16.083 18.111 3.632 0.817 Bears 11.667 9.111 3.837 -1.172 Seahawks 2.583 6.111 4.070 2.608 Steelers 18.583 21.556 4.109 0.119 Cardinals 7.333 9.000 4.134 -0.197 Titans 25.167 20.333 4.219 -1.957 49ers 7.917 9.222 4.382 3.449 Saints 16.000 15.667 4.969 -0.123 Eagles 5.000 12.444 5.039 1.014 Vikings 24.083 17.444 5.182 -1.096 Cowboys 22.417 16.222 5.485 2.365 Dolphins 18.917 13.556 5.550 1.241 Colts 13.917 23.222 5.911 0.237 Broncos 1.250 7.778 5.924 4.694 Bills 13.667 9.111 6.064 1.777 Packers 8.083 15.889 6.268 -0.288 Texans 17.750 15.778 6.725 2.746 Redskins 25.750 16.222 8.008 3.593

Observations:

So even though the Bills are ranked relatively high, it's not a consistent ranking.

Washington again at the bottom of this list, and it's not even close.

Jaguars are very much in command of the bottom of the rankings.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Colts 13.917 23.222 9.306 0.520 Packers 8.083 15.889 7.806 -0.313 Eagles 5.000 12.444 7.444 1.623 Broncos 1.250 7.778 6.528 5.242 Jets 19.083 22.889 3.806 1.508 Panthers 4.750 8.333 3.583 4.940 Seahawks 2.583 6.111 3.528 2.183 Steelers 18.583 21.556 2.972 -0.290 Falcons 16.083 18.111 2.028 0.242 Cardinals 7.333 9.000 1.667 1.798 Browns 22.333 23.889 1.556 4.389 Bengals 3.000 4.333 1.333 -1.191 49ers 7.917 9.222 1.306 1.330 Chargers 10.000 11.000 1.000 2.679 Chiefs 26.500 27.444 0.944 -0.389 Jaguars 30.833 31.222 0.389 -0.647 Patriots 6.500 6.667 0.167 -4.285 Saints 16.000 15.667 -0.333 -4.416 Giants 28.917 27.778 -1.139 -0.782 Rams 27.500 25.778 -1.722 2.707 Ravens 13.333 11.556 -1.778 -5.802 Texans 17.750 15.778 -1.972 -2.043 Raiders 31.917 29.778 -2.139 3.337 Lions 17.333 15.000 -2.333 -0.833 Bears 11.667 9.111 -2.556 -2.318 Buccaneers 29.833 25.556 -4.278 -0.397 Bills 13.667 9.111 -4.556 -0.604 Titans 25.167 20.333 -4.833 2.560 Dolphins 18.917 13.556 -5.361 -3.397 Cowboys 22.417 16.222 -6.195 -5.374 Vikings 24.083 17.444 -6.639 2.932 Redskins 25.750 16.222 -9.528 -4.909

Observations:

It doesn't really surprise me to see the top 4 teams in this list. The Colts have not looked very impressive to me, and the stats are bearing that out. Same with the Packers. The Broncos looked less than impressive against the Chiefs. And while the Eagles have looked somewhat impressive, their opponents haven't been too stellar.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the chart, Washington is under-ranked compared to their performances. They did blow out Jacksonville, so that helps their objective stats. But RGIII is hobbled already, and the subjective rankings bear that out. So think of the subjective rankings as "future potential."

How quickly the pundits turn on Minnesota. And isn't it just cool to irrationally hate on the Cowboys?

The Bills are actually slightly "under-ranked".

Chargers are slightly over-ranked.

Sources