Abstract This paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government's austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity.

Citation Fetzer, Thiemo. 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?" American Economic Review , 109 (11): 3849-86 . DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181164 Choose Format: BibTeX EndNote Refer/BibIX RIS Tab-Delimited