Toronto Liberals are facing a major dilemma over whether or not to support Olivia Chow, the popular and controversial NDP MP, in her campaign for mayor.

The reason for their quandary is simple: many don’t think Chow is the best person to be mayor and they dislike the NDP.

But they also believe TTC chair Karen Stintz can’t overtake Ford in what promises to be a bitter campaign fight and they are unsure whether radio host John Tory will even enter the race.

Indeed, a huge divide is emerging among Toronto Liberals as the mayoral race officially gets underway.

Without their own party-friendly candidate to support, many key Liberals are backing Stintz, a Conservative, while others are actively urging Tory, another Conservative who finished second in the 2003 mayoral race, to join the race.

“There’s an enormous fear of Olivia becoming mayor,” a veteran Liberal strategist who is uncommitted yet said this week. “Part of it is her style, but a lot of Liberals are just not comfortable with her.”

The Liberals’ unease over whether to back Chow has grown more intense with a new poll conducted Monday that indicates the scandal-ridden Ford has a serious chance of winning re-election.

According to the Forum Research survey, Ford is now supported by 35 per cent of voters, Chow 30 per cent, Tory 22 per cent, Stintz 12 per cent and former councillor David Soknacki 8 per cent. It’s the first time Chow has trailed Ford in any recent poll on voting intentions.

To date, only Ford and Soknacki have officially registered to run. Stintz has already declared she will run, but she won’t sign up until late February. Chow is planning to register in late February or early March after completing a national book tour promoting her new autobiography.

Tory is waiting until sometime in February to make up his mind. Several top-ranked Liberals have told Tory to take a month off from his radio program to consider his future.

The Liberals’ hesitancy over Chow is based on several concerns.

First, they believe the NDP is trying to turn Toronto into an NDP stronghold both provincially and federally. In the past year, senior federal and provincial NDP officials have approached Ontario Liberals about supporting Chow with what Liberals feel is this goal in mind, but most have been rebuffed.

Second, Chow has been out of Toronto city politics for nearly a decade since becoming a federal MP, leading some to charge that it’s “a bit presumptuous” of her to suggest she can return now and easily lead the city.

Third, although Chow has had a respectable career as a city councillor and MP, she has always been considered more of a backroom operator than a leader.

Despite this, Chow has gained the support of several high-profile Liberals, including former Ontario cabinet minister George Smitherman and former RBC executive Charles Coffey.

Last Sunday, 29 men and women who will form the core of Chow’s election team met for eight hours to map out the details of her campaign. Chow wasn’t present, but John Laschinger, her campaign manager, headed the daylong session. An organizer said several Liberals and “self-described progressives” attended the meeting, adding that Chow has lined up support from elected provincial and federal Liberals that will be unveiled when she officially launches her campaign.

For her part, Stintz has put together an election team heavy with Liberals, led by campaign manager Don Guy, who masterminded the Ontario Liberal victories in 2003, 2007 and 2011. He is joined by Dave Gene, a deputy chief of staff to former premier Dalton McGuinty who is known as a tough political fixer.

Admittedly, some Liberals are “parking” their support with Stintz for now, waiting for Tory to decide if he’s in or out of the race.

Others, though, like Stintz because they feel she has courageously stood up to Ford on transit and other issues and has crafted a campaign message of being able to deliver fiscal restraint and decent city services without the circus atmosphere of Ford.

Meanwhile, some Liberals are looking beyond the current roster of possible candidates and are actively seeking someone from “out of the blue.”

One name being raised is that of Rahul Bhardwaj, the popular president of the Toronto Community Foundation, a major philanthropic charity. Bhardwaj, a former corporate lawyer and a vice- president of Toronto’s 2008 Olympic bid, was approached about running in the 2003 and 2007 mayoral races, but declined to enter.

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Over the coming weeks, the battle for Liberal support between Chow and Stintz — and Tory if he enters — will be critical.

That’s because if the Liberals fail to coalesce around one of these candidates and instead splinter three ways, then the big winner will be Rob Ford.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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