Orange County reputation as Republican stronghold dates to its days when it had the highest percentage of registered Republican in the state. Today, it ranks 20th among the state’s 58 counties. Republican registration fell below 50 in 1999. Since 1992, Democrats have gained ground on Republicans in every Orange County city but Seal Beach, Laguna Woods and Los Alamitos. Indications are that the trend will continue unless the GOP can find a way to better connect with Latinos and young voters. While Democrats have held their share of the county electorate, Republicans’ percentage has shrunk and voters with no party preference have gained. While some Republicans have re-registered as independents, a bigger factor is older Republicans dying and being replaced on the rolls by new voters who register without a party affiliation.

City by city

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*Unincorporated in 1994

Note: All figures reflect registration for general elections except 2016, which was for primary election.



Why the gap is closing



MORE LATINO VOTERS

Latinos are more than twice as likely to register Democrat as Republican and their share of the county’s electorate is growing. They’re currently 18 percent of registered voters – but 34 percent of the population. As more Latinos become citizens and more reach voting age, look for their electoral impact to increase. Immigration reform continues to be a major polarizing issue Republicans have been unable to resolve. Orange County Asians are more apt to register Republican (35 percent) than Democrat (29 percent). Asians represent a smaller portion of the electorate (14 percent) than Latinos. Also, they are less likely to vote along party lines -but turn out in higher proportions than Latinos.



YOUNG VOTERS SHIFT PARTIES

The GOP has problems attracting young voters nationwide, and that’s increasingly true in Orange County. Mitt Romney won the national vote of those 30 and over in 2012, but President Barack Obama’s strength with those under 30 gave him an easy victory. “Millennials in particular are socially liberal and one-third don’t have a religious affiliation,” said Fullerton College political scientist Jodi Balma. “The Republican positions on gay marriage, transgender rights and reproductive rights are alienating this generation.” While some believe young people often change from Democrats to Republican as they get older, an analysis by Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. shows that most people retain their initial party affiliation.

Sources: Orange County Registrar of Voters, Political Data Inc., California Secretary of State, U.S. Census

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