Labor's right may lose control of conference for first time since 1984

Labor's right may lose control of conference for first time since 1984

It is possible neither the left nor right faction will muster a clear majority at the national conference, creating kingmakers out of independent delegates

It is possible neither the left nor right faction will muster a clear majority at the national conference, creating kingmakers out of independent delegates

It is possible neither the left nor right faction will muster a clear majority at the national conference, creating kingmakers out of independent delegates

Labor’s right faction is at risk of losing control of the party’s

national conference for the first time since 1984 – a development that

would create a major headache for Bill Shorten.

The ALP is currently in the process of settling the final composition

of the 400 delegates to its mid-year national conference, and factional

chiefs report the numbers are extremely tight.

One senior party source told Guardian Australia it was possible on

current indications that “no one” could control the July conference –

meaning that neither the left nor the right factions could muster a

clear majority – creating kingmakers out of a small handful of

independent delegates without formal factional allegiances.

The party’s right wing has enjoyed and enforced an effective lock on

the national conference since the Hawke-Keating years, allowing various

divisive policy debates to be settled mostly in line with the prevailing

wishes of the party leadership.

The current party leader, Shorten, hails from the party’s right

faction, and will rely on backing from his own camp to minimise

turbulence and political embarrassment at his first national conference

outing as the federal Labor leader.

Whether or not the right can emerge with a working majority depends

on the final resolution of ALP conference delegates from New South Wales

and Victoria – the two biggest blocs.


The

right is confident about its prospects in Victoria, and factional

chiefs are relying on an administrative process in NSW to calibrate the

final numbers. Sixty of the 108 NSW delegates are expected to be

selected centrally and 48 at the local electoral level. But there is a

determined push on from the left to maximise final representation in

NSW.

The shift in the overall factional balance reflects a recent shift in

control of the Queensland branch from the right faction to the left

faction; poor organisation and weak electoral representation in Western

Australia and Tasmania; a breakdown in the organisation of the national

right; and incremental democratisation within the party.

The ALP national conference determines the Labor party’s national

platform, and this particular conference gives the opposition a

springboard into the federal election, which is due in 2016.

But the outing carries significant political risks for Labor, which

has attempted to move past the vicious internal divisions of the

Rudd/Gillard period which ultimately cost the party government in 2013.

Shorten goes into the 2015 national conference facing significant

internal flashpoints which include the vexed issue of party reform and

achieving a more progressive policy platform to regulate the treatment

of asylum seekers. Right sources are concerned the left could push for

the complete unwinding of offshore processing.

Other points of conference controversy are expected to be a binding

vote in favour of marriage equality, and debate about the status of

Palestine.

The left faction is expected to oppose a push from the right to remove the socialist objective from the ALP platform.

Left sources also report significant frustration with Shorten’s

personal agenda on party reform. His proposals are regarded as

insufficiently ambitious.

In addition to the complication of whether or not the right faction

emerges with a working majority for the July conference, there’s a

further wildcard: many of this year’s conference flashpoints are

unlikely to be settled along strict factional lines.

A push to moderate Labor’s hardline policy on unauthorised boat

arrivals will be championed by the left but is also likely to win

support from elements of Labor’s Catholic right.