The last time the government shut down in 2013, polls showed Republicans took the brunt of the blame.

It looks like history might be repeating.


Pre-shutdown polls from last week showed nearly half of respondents said they’d hold President Donald Trump and/or congressional Republicans responsible for a shutdown, compared to less than one-third who said they would blame Democrats in Congress.

A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, conducted Thursday and Friday also found more voters would blame Republicans in Congress for the government shutdown, 41 percent, than would blame Democrats, 36 percent. Democratic and Republican voters, by wide margins, held the other side responsible. But more independents said they would blame Republicans, 34 percent, than Democrats, 27 percent.

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Yet the shutdown is no clean political win for Democrats. Americans don’t necessarily approve of the party's strategy to insist on a legislative solution for undocumented immigrants brought here as children before voting to reopen the government. In fact, both parties’ immigration stances — Democrats’ efforts to protect the so-called Dreamers and Trump’s insistence on funding a border wall with Mexico — are viewed by voters as less important than keeping the government open.

Voters in the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll are equally divided on whether it’s worth shutting down the government to pass a bill that allows those eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals to stay in the U.S. Forty-two percent of voters say it’s not worth shutting down the government to pass a DACA bill — the same percentage who say it is worth it. Among independents, only 35 percent say it’s worth shutting down the government for a DACA fix, while 43 percent say it’s not worth it.

The numbers for a DACA fix are more positive than for Trump’s proposed border wall: Only 27 percent of voters say it would be worth shutting down the government to secure funding to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, while a 59 percent majority say it wouldn’t be worth it.

Increasing defense spending is more popular. A 55 percent majority of voters say it would be worth shutting down the government to secure an increase in funding for defense and homeland security. Only 30 percent say an increase in defense spending isn’t important enough to shut down the government.

The poll also suggests that Republicans’ strategy to pair long-term funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program with a short-term funding bill is a sound one. Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64 percent, say it’s worth shutting the government down for a CHIP renewal, and only 22 percent say it’s not worth shutting the government down to fund CHIP.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted January 18-19. The poll surveyed 1,017 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Despite these numbers, Democrats see their stand as a political winner — in large part because allowing the so-called Dreamers to stay in the U.S. is broadly popular. In this week’s CNN/SSRS poll , the overwhelming majority of Americans, 84 percent, say the government should continue the current policy and allow immigrants who meet the DACA qualifications to remain in the U.S., while only 11 percent say the government should end the DACA policy and allow those immigrants to be deported.

A border wall is far less popular: Only 35 percent of Americans favor building a wall along the entire Mexican border, compared to 62 percent who oppose a complete wall.

The CNN/SSRS poll didn’t ask about the multiple, specific trade-offs — but Americans, generally, oppose shutting down the government. A 56 percent majority of Americans say it’s more important for Congress to approve a budget agreement that would avoid a government shutdown, compared to 34 percent who say it’s more important to pass legislation that maintains the DACA program.

Americans’ perceptions before the shutdown won’t necessarily reflect their opinions once the shutdown began. But this week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll release notes that more Americans said in March 2011 they would blame Republicans in Congress, not then-President Barack Obama. Two-and-a-half years later, when the government did shut down, Americans blamed congressional Republicans.

That shutdown led to a spike in Democrats’ standing in the generic congressional ballot — polling’s best attempt to estimate how voters might behave in the upcoming midterm elections. In October of 2013, Democrats opened up a 7-point lead on the generic ballot. But by early December, after the failed rollout of the federal health insurance exchange website, Republicans were back in front on the generic ballot. In November 2014, the GOP made sweeping gains in the midterm elections.

As of late Saturday, Democrats led by 8 points on the generic ballot, according to the RealClearPolitics average .

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2FZGj5H | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2BhIeix

CORRECTION: A previous version of this story contained an incorrect margin of error for the new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

