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Business executives have warned repeatedly about the damage President Trump’s trade wars could do to their profits. Wall Street analysts and strategists have called increasing tit-for-tat tariffs the greatest risk to economic growth. Trade groups have raised alarms about the impact of rising prices on consumer spending.

Yet, as trade tensions have flared again, research analysts who forecast company earnings barely lowered their estimates for this year and next. That may not be good news for the stock market.

Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to increase their profits by 3.1 percent this year. That’s just 0.2 percentage points lower than the forecast for growth at the start of May, when Mr. Trump dashed investors’ hopes that a trade deal with China was near, according to data from John Butters, the senior earnings analyst at FactSet. Sales-growth estimates for 2019 are just two-tenths of a percentage point lower, at 4.5 percent.