HONOLULU  The nation's economic woes are hitting Hawaii's tourism industry hard.

Even before the economy reached the current crisis level, the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism estimated in August that the number of visitors would decline by more than half a million this year, from a 2007 peak of 7.63 million to 7.12 million. It also forecast that visitors, who spent $12.81 billion in the state in 2007, would spend $11.99 billion in 2008.

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Matters worsened in September, when the agency reported a 24.2% drop in tourists from August 2007. That decline was the largest year-over-year drop ever, says Marsha Wienert, Hawaii's tourism liaison. "Hawaii's economy is reliant on tourism, and the largest source of tourists to the islands is the U.S. mainland," Wienert says. "When there's a downturn in the economy on the U.S. mainland, it affects Hawaii's tourism."

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, who was born in Honolulu, has great support in the state. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 20 — the most recent survey done here — showed Obama leading Republican counterpart John McCain 68% to 27%. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated President Bush here, 54% to 45%. Hawaii did not begin voting in presidential elections until 1960, following statehood in 1959. The state leans Democratic, but Hawaii voters did prefer Republicans Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Officials and residents are divided over whether Obama or McCain would be most effective at addressing the decline.

"Either candidate is going to have to focus on this economic crisis, to rein in oil prices and increase the value of our dollar and how Hawaii relates to the world's markets," says state Rep. Ryan Yamane, a Democrat who is chairman of Hawaii's House Tourism and Culture Committee. "That economic engine has got to be a focus, which will directly relate to tourism."

Murray William Luther, 93, who lives in the Honolulu community of Hawaii Kai, says, "I'm a Republican, and we're always going to be looking back at the last six years, at least, and say things could have been done better. … For us here in the islands, there's a lot of hoopla to say that he (Obama) was born here and so on. But Sen. Obama wasn't in the Senate long enough to do anything. McCain would be the one I have faith in vs. the unknown."

"Oil prices will fluctuate, jet fuel prices will fluctuate, air fares will fluctuate," says Obama supporter Roger Davis, 51, a software engineer on the staff of the University of Hawaii, who lives in Kamehame Ridge on the island of Oahu. "There's nothing anyone can do to solve that. But my general impression is that McCain just knows nothing about the economy and he's being advised by people who seem clueless, whereas Obama seems to have people around him giving reasonable advice."

Eugene Tian, research and statistics officer for Hawaii's Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, says tourism accounts for 18.2% of Hawaii's economy. The decline is affecting jobs. Hawaii's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped from 2.7% in August 2007 to 4.2% last August, according to the September unemployment report from the Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations. Hawaii's leisure and hospitality industry went from 109,700 jobs in August 2007 to 108,000 in August 2008, the report says.

Yamane says both candidates have ties to Hawaii and a victory by either "enhances Hawaii's reputation."

Obama was raised in the islands, played on the state championship basketball team at the private Punahou School, has a sister who still lives here and returns every Christmas to visit his maternal grandmother, who helped raise him.

McCain's father, Navy Adm. John McCain, was commander of U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii from 1968 to 1972. Sen. McCain met his future wife, Cindy, at the Royal Hawaiian hotel in 1979 while he was returning from a trip to the Far East.

"Sen. McCain provides the assurance that our military will remain strong," says Andy Blom, executive director for the Hawaii McCain campaign. "He will ease our tax burden, which not only helps us in our pockets but helps us dramatically in tourism."

"As the economy goes, so goes tourism," said Brian Schatz, head of the Hawaii Democratic Party. "Both the Asian and United States' markets are hurting. … There's increasing anxiety over the national economy and how it will impact our tourism industry. Sen. McCain's economic policies are indistinguishable from President Bush's. Sen. Obama's presidency will put us back on a path to economic recovery, and that will help our No. 1 industry."

Nakaso reports for The Honolulu Advertiser