CLEVELAND, Ohio — Cleveland and Northeast Ohio have been losing population for decades, sliding lower and lower in the national urban pecking order while other regions grow.

But Northeast Ohio could vault back into the top 20 regions in the U.S. if it merged Metropolitan Statistical Areas to better reflect the region’s economic clout.

The Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency, the region’s top planning agency, which represents Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Lorain and Medina counties, is spearheading a discussion about just such a change, which could coincide with the release of data from the 2020 Census.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas are the most commonly used yardstick to measure urban regions. If the Census Bureau approves a merger for Northeast Ohio, one possible variation would add the five-county Cleveland-Elyria Metropolitan Statistical Area to the Akron and Canton MSAs, which include Summit, Portage, Stark and Carroll counties.

Raising the profile

The nine-county merger would vault the region anchored by Cleveland from the 33rd largest MSA in the U.S, with a population of nearly 2.1 million, to the 18th largest, with more than 3.1 million residents.

Other variations would incorporate additional counties, such as Erie and Wayne.

One merger scenario proposed by the Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency would expand the Metropolitan Statistical Area centered on Cleveland from five to nine counties, boosting its national ranking in comparison to peer cities such as Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Columbus.Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency

Grace Gallucci, executive director of NOACA, said that merging MSAs would more accurately reflect Northeast Ohio as a region of multiple cities whose suburbs and labor markets are growing together around interstate highways.

“Sprawl has caused this,’’ she said. “Sprawl has resulted in us being a larger more filled-out MSA than in the past.’’

But she said, ‘’we often look at ourselves in a fragmented way, which is currently how the MSAs are defining us. We are disadvantaged because of how we are measured against other regions.’’

Mixed reactions

Responses to the merger concept have been mixed. Steve Poggiali, director of the Erie County Regional Planning Commission, centered on Sandusky, is open to the idea.

But Akron doesn’t want any part of it, because it would erode “the national stature, prominence, and identity of our city and its neighboring suburbs,” Akron Mayor Daniel Horrigan wrote to Gallucci in an April 6 letter.

Gallucci is undeterred.

“I’m willing to take the hits,’’ she said. “My objective is win-win.’’

She said her agency started the MSA conversation last year, before the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic, and will continue because the 2020 census creates an opportunity to redefine the region.

A table compares current Metropolitan Statistical Areas, showing how the current system used by the Census Bureau places the five-county Cleveland-Elyria MSA as the 33rd largest in the U.S. A merger could boost it to No. 18.Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency

Changing the boundaries of the Metropolitan Statistical Area could boost economic development and help the region recruit more companies by emphasizing the true scale and population density of Northeast Ohio, she said.

“We could more effectively compete with larger regions like South Florida or Chicago or Houston,’’ she said.

Chicago and Houston are the big central cities in their regions, but merging the MSAs for Northeast Ohio would make the region look more like the Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, Gallucci said.

Competitive stature

She also argues that changing the MSA boundaries would make the Cleveland-Akron-Canton region more competitive with nearby peer metros such as Pittsburgh, Columbus and Indianapolis.

The Pittsburgh MSA ranks 27th in the U.S. with 2.3 million residents in seven counties. Columbus ranks 32nd with 2.1 million residents in 10 counties. And Indianapolis is 34th with just over 2 million residents in 11 counties.

A merger scenario proposed by the Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency would expand the Metropolitan Statistical Area centered on Cleveland from five to nine counties, boosting its national ranking in comparison to peer cities such as Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Columbus.Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency

If Northeast Ohio measured itself by geographic yardsticks of similar size, it would better reflect the region’s comparative prominence, Gallucci said. It would also add to the region’s political clout and ability to secure federal funding.

“Clearly the larger you are as an MSA, the more influence you have in legislation and in access to funding,’’ Gallucci said.

But she faces an uphill battle.

The Census Bureau and the federal Office of Management and Budget, which set criteria for defining statistical areas, require that for a merger to be considered, at least 25 percent of workers from one area must commute into another.

Currently, 17.7 percent of commuters from Summit and Portage counties commute into the five county Cleveland-Elyria MSA, with 14.6 percent traveling to Cuyahoga County, according to data compiled by NOACA.

Gallucci argues that Northeast Ohio should be given an allowance for the fact that the 33,000-acre Cuyahoga Valley National Park is a barrier between Akron and Cleveland.

“There’s an arbitrary line between Summit and Cuyahoga’’ counties, she said.

A question of identity

Critics, including Akron’s Mayor Horrigan, point out that in addition to Metropolitan Statistical Areas, the Census Bureau ranks urban areas by Combined Statistical Areas, which incorporate multiple MSAs.

The Combined Statistical Area for Northeast Ohio already fuses Cleveland with Akron and Canton, framing an urban region that ranks 17th in the U.S., behind Minneapolis-St. Paul and ahead the greater Denver area.

Gallucci still argues that the MSA is the most commonly used yardstick for national rankings used by businesses, think tanks and scholars.

Other regional planners aren’t convinced.

“I think there needs to be more clearly articulated benefits of this proposed change,’’ said Joseph Hadley, Jr., executive director of the Northeast Ohio Four County Regional Planning and Development Organization, representing Portage, Stark, Summit and Wayne Counties.

In part, the conversation about how best to measure the region reflects its nature as a collection of industrial cities with their own identities and history.

Under Gallucci, NOACA has been striving to bring greater cohesion to the region, which has a history of political balkanization.

The big picture

The agency was a key sponsor of the 12-county Northeast Ohio Sustainable Communities Consortium, which in 2014 produced Vibrant NEO 2040, the biggest and most comprehensive vision for the future of the region in a half century.

A summary map from the 2014 Vibrant NEO Vision of the Northeast Ohio Sustainable Communities Consortium advocated for preservation of agricultural land, limits to sprawl, reinvestment in urban areas, and better regional transit connections.Vibrant NEO

The project showed that Northeast Ohio is sprawling while losing population, a formula for higher local taxes, greater inequality and greater strain on the environment.

Some of the region’s top planners say they’re eager to collaborate with Gallucci and NOACA on solutions, including making cities more livable in order to counteract the allure of suburban development.

But they want to pursue such actions without losing the distinctness of Cleveland, Akron and Canton.

“We want to collaborate and work regionally, but part of that is respecting the uniqueness and identity of the three metro regions,’’ said Jason Segedy, Akron’s planning director.

In its drive to merge MSAs, NOACA respects boundaries and local governance, Gallucci said.

“This isn’t about identity of an individual metro area,’’ she said. “This comes down to what makes sense.’’