× Expand David Michael Miller

Gov. Scott Walker’s approval rating is at an all-time low of 38%, but he is showing every sign that he intends to run for a third term in 2018. Here are a handful of reasons why I believe he either won’t make the race or will lose if he does.

1. The bad vibrations just keep on happening with him. When Walker’s approval ratings first took a nosedive, the view was that this had something to do with restiveness over his presidential ambitions. But the bad numbers have remained consistent at around 40% for almost an entire year since he aborted his bid. Apparently, the only thing Wisconsinites like less than having this governor out of state is having him at home.

2. He’s no Tommy Thompson. The primary reason for Walker’s bad numbers is that his support among independent voters, especially in the north, has plummeted. Walker needs to win them back, but there’s little chance that he will. Walker is just not the kind of crossover candidate that Tommy Thompson was. Tommy looked comfortable in a snowmobile suit. Walker is a tassel loafer Republican. Smug, self-satisfied, he still holds his support among country club types in the Milwaukee suburbs, but he never played that well outstate. There’s no reason to think that he will now.

3. There will soon be blood in the water. The Republicans don’t lack for ambitious pols. If his weak numbers continue much longer, look for Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, Attorney General Brad Schimel and — who knows? — maybe even the great Tommy himself, to start helping bury Walker to give birth to their own ambitions. Vos has already broken with the governor on transportation funding, a major issue.

4. He’ll face Trumped-up charges. Walker spoke at the GOP convention when more sensible Republicans wouldn’t even get near Toledo, much less Cleveland. Wisconsin was the last state The Donald lost in the primaries leading up to his nomination. The closer he gets to Trump, the more toxic radiation Walker will absorb. He may soon be positively glowing, but not in a good way.

5. His “bold” policies are just not working. Some Wisconsinites held their noses and stuck with Walker through his gutting of public- and then private-sector unions, his dismantling of environmental protections and his defunding of public education at all levels. But while our cherished environment and our once great public education system suffer under Walker, none of his policies have resulted in any kind of robust growth. The Walker economy is lackluster. He’s still nowhere near creating the 250,000 private-sector jobs he promised in 2010. Voters gave him a pass on that in 2014 because they credited him just for trying. But after eight years of coming up short, their patience will have run out.

But here’s the bad news. While it seems increasingly likely that there will be no third term for Scott Walker, that doesn’t mean that the next governor will reverse his policies.

First, there is no clear strong Democratic candidate out there. Instead, the Dems have a whole lot of B-teamers, any of whom could make the jump to the major leagues, but none of whom are assured of doing so. The old cliché is that you can’t beat somebody with nobody. It remains to be seen if the Democrats can find a somebody. In the absence of that, welcome, Gov. Vos.

Second, the Wisconsin gubernatorial election is always in the wrong year. Unless the Democrats can find some way to get their voters to the polls in a nonpresidential year, the Republican candidate, no matter who it is, will always have a built-in advantage. That’s no guarantee of success, of course — Jim Doyle got elected twice in the off-year — but it’s a leg up. And it will be even harder for Dems if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, as the president’s party usually takes it on the chin in the midterm elections.

And third, unless a court overturns the masterful gerrymander that the Republicans pulled off after the last census, there’s little chance that even a Democratic governor would have a Democratic Legislature to work with. At best, that governor could stop more bad things from happening and maybe leverage a few good policies through the budget. But otherwise, any real progress would have to wait until a fair redistricting can take place after the next census. That means we would have to look forward to the Legislature that convenes in 2023.

But first things first. Imagine a Wisconsin finally free of Scott Walker. With each passing poll, that seems more and more likely.

Dave Cieslewicz is the former mayor of Madison. He blogs as Citizen Dave at Isthmus.com.