Will they or won’t they? Federal Reserve officials, who begin a two-day policy meeting Wednesday, didn’t seem close last week to a consensus to raise short-term interest rates. But nearly half of private economic forecasters still think the Fed is about to raise rates that have been pinned near zero for nearly seven years. Here are five things to watch Thursday when the Fed issues a policy statement and updated economic projections (2 p.m. EDT) followed by Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s quarterly press conference (2:30 p.m. EDT).

#1:...