Will the peace talks on Yemen fully collapse after more than three months of negotiations? | The World Weekly

This week saw a whirlwind of back and forth diplomacy and political bickering on Yemen. As UN-sponsored peace talks in Kuwait entered their last week, the warring factions still appeared far from an agreement and clashes in Yemen continued.

Then on Sunday - one week before the peace talks are scheduled to end on August 7 - the internationally recognised government, which had previously planned to pull out of the talks, accepted a plan proposed by UN envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed to end the fighting in Yemen.

Shortly after, however, the rebels, a frequently used catch-all term for Houthis originally hailing from northern Yemen now in control of the capital and those loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, rejected the agreement, which requires them to withdraw from the capital Sanaa and two other cities and hand over their heavy weapons. The Houthi-Saleh delegation urged that any agreement would first need to deal with forming a new consensual executive authority, including a new president and government. It also accused the government of a “media stunt” aimed at derailing the talks. The Houthis had previously welcomed the extension of the talks.

This dismissal in turn prompted the government delegation to leave Kuwait. "We now leave Kuwait... but are not quitting the consultations and not ending them before August 7,” Foreign Minister Abdulmalek al-Mikhlafi, also the head of the government delegation, said, adding that the delegation would return “if the other side agrees to sign”. In an apparent effort to prevent the talks from collapsing, UN envoy Cheikh Ahmed posted on social media that the departure was “not a departure from the peace talks”.

“All parties disagree on the proposal presented by the UN special envoy,” Fernando Carvajal, a seasoned Yemen analyst who runs Diwan, a blog on Yemeni affairs, told The World Weekly. He said that the conditions created by both sides were “unacceptable to each other.” President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi could not accept “anything less than an unconditional surrender by the Houthis and Mr. Saleh under UN Security Council Resolution 2216,” which demands a complete withdrawal from all government facilities, Mr. Carvajal said, adding that a path towards a unity government as demanded by the Houthi-Saleh camp was equally blocked.

As the outcome of the peace talks, which were first started in April, stayed uncertain, the terrible state of the humanitarian situation in Yemen was in contrast much clearer (despite a lack of access to crucial areas), as the UN this week presented new figures saying that more than 14 million people are going hungry and are in urgent need of food and medical aid. This includes around 370,000 children at risk of starvation.

The conflict, which escalated in March 2015 with the launch of a Saudi Arabia-led intervention, has pushed the Arab world’s poorest nation into a humanitarian crisis. The war has overall pitted the Saudi coalition and local forces backing President Hadi against the Houthi rebels, also known as Ansarullah, and their allies, crucially including forces loyal to Mr. Saleh. The Saudi coalition receives pivotal logistical and intelligence support from Western powers, including the US and UK, a fact much criticised by human rights organisations. The Houthis took control of the capital Sanaa in September 2014.

Complicating the negotiation of a comprehensive peace agreement from afar is that the conflict has metastasised over the last 15 months and many fault lines are currently at the local level. The loose nature of many alliances on the ground, exemplified by reports of al-Qaeda elements fighting alongside pro-Hadi forces near the key battleground of Taiz, is a crucial part of that. In many cases, coalitions formed by the Saudi-led alliance are bound by little more than a general anti-Houthi stance and by far not all of the factions involved in the fighting were consulted or invited to Kuwait.

Commenting on a new governing council, which was established by the Houthis and Mr. Saleh in the capital Sanaa last week, Mr. Carvajal said all sides recognised the conflict “is at an impasse on all battle fronts”. He said the new council was aimed at gaining leverage over President Hadi beyond the battlefield, where more attacks and excursions into Saudi territory have become part of a new military strategy by the rebels.

Going forward, Mr. Cheikh Ahmed’s diplomatic skills will be much needed as the August 7 deadline looms. In a briefing to the UN Security Council, the envoy called on the body to “move”, according to Turkish Anadolu news agency. Anadolu reported a meeting between the envoy and the Houthi-Saleh delegation held on Wednesday did not achieve any progress.

Mr. Carvajal was not optimistic about the chances to reach a peace agreement: “There are no prospects for any degree of success under the current environment.” Looking ahead, he said longtime ruler Mr. Saleh, who remains a key power player in Yemen, was aiming to reach a deal with Saudi Arabia (he recently declared his readiness for direct talks with the kingdom) and thus the West, presenting his son Ahmed Ali as “the only political solution”. All the while there are renewed calls for the south to secede, anathema for Mr. Saleh who oversaw Yemen’s unification in 1990.

“It will take a long time before any agreement has a significant impact on the ground,” Mr. Carvajal concluded.