Where do you see yourself in five years?

In the Portland area, the answer is likely to be one of two places: Stuck in traffic, or in a road-construction zone.

The region is entering one of the busiest five-year road constructions stretches in recent history – fueled by the city’s gas tax, an initiative from Mayor Ted Wheeler to take on debt to address long-deferred maintenance, and the $5.3 billion transportation package passed by the Legislature in 2017. Regardless of if you’re driving, walking, biking or taking transit, construction will be noticeable and potentially disruptive.

If all comes to fruition, the scope of the tri-county projects is immense and easily surpasses $1 billion. Four pedestrian or bike-only bridges will be built in Portland; Southeast Portland will see high capacity transit and safety projects on Southeast Division Street; key roads like Northwest 23rd Avenue and Southwest Capitol Highway will see substantial closures due to paving and/or safety projects; and more than dozen projects in downtown designed to speed up buses and bike safety are expected to move forward.

State-led mega projects include widening and capping Interstate 5 at the Rose Quarter, a major disruption in September 2020 on the Interstate Bridge that will shutter northbound lanes for two weeks and cause extensive delays, and freeway widening to add merging lanes on I-205 and Oregon 217. Widening projects are still underway on I-205.

And that’s all without considering a 2020 transportation package that’s likely to hit voters’ mailboxes next November where the total price tag of projects could hit $20 billion. The estimated $2.7 billion light rail extension to Bridgeport Village will be a centerpiece of that plan. Drivers may see the region’s first user fees for local freeways during the five-year period as well, as tolling could be instituted on sections of I-5 and I-205.

Multnomah County also hopes to start work to potentially replace or upgrade the Burnside Bridge by 2022. The five-year horizon doesn’t include what to do with the Interstate Bridge spanning the Columbia River.

Politicians and state transportation leaders say that while many of the closures will occur on nights or weekends, some lengthy detours and big traffic jams may be unavoidable. People should anticipate delays, but they can expect things to be better in the long term. The projects are long overdue, and Metro said the region could see about 524,000 more people move to the Portland-Vancouver metro area by 2038.

“For decades, we’ve been underfunding maintenance, and thanks to reforms from the Legislature we are better able to pay for deferred maintenance,” Metro Council President Lynn Peterson said in a statement. “But all that work is a drop in the bucket of the needs. The major corridors in our region need maintenance, safety and multimodal improvements from stem to stern, from Gresham to Forest Grove and from Lents to Sherwood.”

There are important caveats to go around – like which of the projects will actually move forward and whether the state, city and region will be able to pull this all off. Economist Joe Cortright, a vocal critic of past mega projects like the failed Columbia River Crossing, said he has doubts that the big-ticket projects in particular can be completed on time and on budget. Cortright noted on his City Observatory blog this year that ODOT has a poor track record on projects of this size and scope. Its largest highway project, a five-mile widening of US 20 between Newport and Corvallis, went more than 300% over budget, rising from $110 million to more than $360 million.

A city audit released this week showed Portland was behind schedule on its suite of paving and safety projects outlined in 10-cent gas tax approved in 2016. But dozens of those projects will break ground in 2019 and 2020, and Portland expects it will complete all of them.

“We are going to trade one frustration for another,” Marshall Runkel, Commissioner Chloe Eudaly’s chief of staff, said in a statement. “Instead of being frustrated about the condition of our streets, we are going to be frustrated by the amount of construction that will be occurring. Luckily, the latter will only be temporary, and it will help alleviate frustration caused by the former.”

The state projects, in particular, amount to some of the largest in the metro region in decades.

“We’re seeing a remarkable period of growth in the transportation system unlike anything we’ve seen in years in the Portland area,” said Don Hamilton, a state transportation spokesman. The projects, he said, would significantly improve safety across the region and be a good thing for the economy and “quality of life.”

PORTLAND,OREGON-7/19/11--Aerial view of Portland's Rose Quarter district. Photo by Randy L. Rasmussen/The Oregonian LC- The OregonianLC- The Oregonian

Thus far, the Rose Quarter freeway project has garnered the majority of opposition. Politicians have gravitated toward the Albina Vision, which calls for a more-substantial freeway cap to allow for housing and development atop the freeway.

But ongoing freeway projects in east Portland and past expansions in the south metro area on I-5, haven’t received as much attention.

Aaron Brown, a chief organizer pushing back against the Rose Quarter project with the No More Freeway PDX group, predicted more resistance would emerge in coming years on projects outside the city center.

“If 40% of our emissions are from transportation why on earth are, we are building more freeway infrastructure?” he asked.

Metro’s Regional Transportation Plan, the guide map for what projects cities and counties plan to pursue in the coming decades, has a blueprint stretching out 25 years and totaling $47 billion.

Peterson said the coming years represent a reminder of just how much money it will cost to “keep up with the growth and the bustling pace of our region.”

“Even with these projects, we know that our region needs more. These investments are barely keeping us above water,” she said.”

The projects outlined above, plus the tri-county efforts expected to go before voters in 2020, are designed to help people get around the region better. But those changes will likely require sacrifices.

“The current solutions aren’t working,” Peterson said. “We need new answers, and that means more investment.”

-- Andrew Theen

atheen@oregonian.com

503-294-4026

@andrewtheen

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