Liberals with 44 point lead

First Post-Writ poll has Liberals up by a factor of 3

TORONTO November 6th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 766 Newfoundland and Labrador voters the day after the election writs were announced for the provincial election of November 30, the Liberals have triple the vote share (65%) of the incumbent Progressive Conservatives (21%) and a seemingly insurmountable lead. The NDP has about one tenth of the vote (13%). Very few will vote other parties (1%).

The Liberal vote is common to the youngest (70%), females (68%) and in Corner Brook and Western Newfoundland (78%). The Progressive Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (33%), males (24%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 26%) and in Grand Falls-Windsor and Central Newfoundland (26%). The NDP vote is common to the least wealthy (17%) and in Labrador (23%).

Of note, more than one half of those who voted Progressive Conservative in 2011 will be voting Liberal in the coming election (56%), as will more than one half of those who voted NDP in 2011 (52%). Thus, each of the opposition parties has emptied at least half its vote into the Liberals.

Ball most popular leader by far

Dwight Ball of the Liberals has the approval of almost half the voters (46%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +22. Paul Davis, the Premier, has the approval of one third (34%) and his net is a negative -9. Earle McCurdy trails at 3-in-10 approving (30%) and a net favourability of -4.

Ball seen as best premier

Dwight Ball is seen to make the best premier by more than a third (37%), compared to just one quarter for Paul Davis (25%). Earle McCurdy brings up the rear at just one tenth (10%). About one sixth think none of these is up to the job (14%) or don’t have an opinion (15%).





“This lopsided result is not unanticipated, but it is interesting the different voters are so clearly delineated demographically. Young females are firmly in the Liberal camp and older males in the Progressive Conservative camp. The NDP, of course, is very solid in Labrador, but not elsewhere in the province," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.