About that 11% decline in post-Thanksgiving US retail sales: It Didn't Happen

By now you have probably run across one of the media stories that there was a big 11% decline in "Black Friday" and Thanksgiving weekend US retail sales, for example the New York Times report that "Thanksgiving Weekend Sales, at Stores and Online, Slide 11 Percent."

Barry Ritholtz http://ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/no-black-friday-sales-were-not-down-11/... already shown the wild historical inaccuracy of this once-a-year NAR report. But now we have some actual, reliable numbers. As you know, every week I post the ICSC, Redbook, and Gallup sales numbers. Their consistent methodology and long record make them a much more reliable "nowcast" of retail sales.

Here's their readings from last week. The first two are through Saturday, Gallup is through Sunday (via http://www.econoday.com/economic-calendar.aspx):

ICSC - up 2.8% YoY (an average YoY reading for the last 2 years):

Redbook - up 4.8% YoY (one of their very best YoY readings for the last 2 years)

Gallup 3 day spending - $111 vs. $108 last year

Gallup 14 day spending - $102 vs. $91 last year

That "11% decline" story is thoroughly Busted. It didn't happen.