National Trust finds 12% decline since 2013, with the population of one island off Northumberland down 42%

Puffin numbers at one of Britain’s most important habitats have fallen sharply, raising fears they could die out completely there within a century.

Every five years National Trust rangers carry out a census of the birds on the Farne Islands, and the latest survey has potentially grim news for the colourful seabird.

The numbers have been reduced by 12% on average from the 2013 census, with one island’s population falling by 42%.

Puffin records on the Northumberland coast archipelago date back to 1939 when 3,000 breeding pairs were recorded, and every census until 2008 showed a steady increase in pairs. But in 2008 numbers fell by a third, from 55,674 to 36,835. This is thought largely due to the impacts of climate change.

Numbers recovered slightly, according to the 2013 census, which found 39,962 breeding pairs.

Tom Hendry, a ranger, said: “Initial findings are concerning. Numbers could be down due to stormy or wetter weather as well as changes in the sand eel population, which is one of their staple foods.

“So far we’ve surveyed four of the eight islands where we conduct the census. Figures from the two largest islands are vastly contradictory, with numbers on Brownsman 42% down, while recordings on Staple show an 18% increase. We will now do some further investigations as to why this might be.

“Predictions have been made that within the next 50 to 100 years these stunning birds will have completely died out on the Farne Islands. The Icelandic population in particular is really struggling, with exceptionally low productivity for over 10 years.

“The monitoring of puffin numbers worldwide is therefore really important to discover whether the species can continue to survive.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest National Trust rangers on the Farne Islands check for puffins in cliftop burrows. Photograph: Paul Kingston//National Trust/PA

To conduct the survey, the rangers arrange grids on the most populated islands to determine the best locations and to cover different habitat types.

Harriet Reid, another ranger, said: “We then put a stake in the middle of each plot and put a piece of string five metres long out, and use that diameter to check all the burrows around the central stake. We will also do a full census on the least populated islands, looking at every burrow.

“We’ll be looking out for the first birds with fish in their beaks, a sure sign their burrows are occupied by hungry pufflings. We also look for external signs around the burrow to determine whether puffins are using it – such as fresh digging, puffin footprints, clearance of vegetation at the burrow entrance, hatched eggshells, or fish or guano in the entrance.

“If we are unsure, it’s only on this occasion that we’ll put our arm down the burrow to gently and carefully feel for any occupants. We then carefully record our findings.”

The puffin was given “vulnerable” status in 2015 by the International Union for Conservation of Nature when worldwide numbers dropped and is also on the British Trust for Ornithology’s “red list” for species of conservation concern in the UK.