Corey Gardner believes the path to flipping Colorado's traditionally red seat is colored green. Social issues fade in Colo. race

ROCKY FORD, Colo. – In this High Plains battleground in eastern Colorado where the GOP is eyeing a prime pick-up opportunity, House Republican nominee Cory Gardner checks most of the boxes that matter to social conservatives.

But in a year when culture war staples such as abortion and gay marriage have been overtaken by high unemployment and deficits as far as the eye can see, that’s not what Gardner is focused on. It’s a subtle but unmistakable stylistic departure from the last Republican to hold this congressional district, former Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.


While Musgrave, who lost her bid for re-election in 2008, made a national name for herself in the House for her social conservatism and sponsorship of a federal constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, Gardner believes the path to flipping this traditionally red seat now held by first-term Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey is colored in green.

"I think everybody's worried about how to make ends meet, what's going to happen and the debt that the country is taking on right now," Gardner said in an August interview after walking in the state's oldest continuous parade. “What I’m focusing on in this campaign are the issues that people come to me and talk about."

Gardner’s approach so far appears to be paying dividends: Markey is widely thought to be among the most endangered incumbents in the nation.

Gardner, a state representative from Yuma, is only part of Markey’s problem, however. She carries the baggage of having cast several tough votes for the Democratic agenda while representing a congressional district where the GOP holds about a 40,000-vote registration advantage.

For his part, Gardner rarely delves into the fractious social issues that Musgrave, who now works with the anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List, championed.

Nowhere on his campaign website can you find his support for a proposed constitutional amendment that would define a fertilized egg as a person. On his issues page, "family" is listed as the seventh of eight items. Even some of his supporters who consider “traditional values” a motivating issue steer towards economic concerns when asked about their top worries.

“The taxing is killing our farmers. They’re getting taxed on their machinery. We can’t have that down here,” said Lynda England, a homeschooling mom from the 1,500-person town Ordway, who also marched in the parade.

That’s why it’s no surprise that Gardner is relentlessly focused on pocketbook issues in building the case against Markey, a former State Department worker and ice cream shop owner who routed Musgrave by 12 percentage points two years ago – the worst margin of defeat suffered by a GOP incumbent in 2008.

While Markey is a member of the moderate Blue Dog coalition who touts herself as a business-friendly fiscal conservative, even Markey acknowledges she took a trio of painful votes during her freshman term – supporting the federal stimulus, the health care bill and even energy climate legislation known as cap-and-trade.

“We just can’t say no. I have taken some very difficult positions, but I was elected to really do something. [People] may not agree with me on all of my votes but they know I’m fighting for them every single day,” Markey explained, noting that the stimulus “has gotten us out of the recession,”

As he worked to shake dozens of hands in a parade in this rural town famous for its melons, Gardner explained that Markey’s votes pulled back the curtain to reveal her true ideological stripes.

“She’s added trillions and trillions of dollars in new spending, but all the time saying in Colorado, well, we’re going to work to be responsible fiscally,” he said. “There is no amount of recovery she can do to make up for the fact that she has voted against this district time and time again.”

Gardner’s aggressive yet friendly campaigning style is in full view at the parade—held in a town that doesn’t even sit in the 4th District. He recognized that likely more than half the people at the Arkansas Valley Fair in Rocky Ford wouldn’t even be able to cast ballots for him, but still viewed the event as worth hoping across district lines for since it drew residents from several adjoining counties.

The GOP understands that it will build a majority in districts like this one, which is why the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has promised to invest heavily in television ads. The economic conservative group Americans for Prosperity already went on the air with a $330,000 cable and broadcast buy featuring a slate of residents complaining about Markey’s votes, with one lamenting “To small businesses, Betsy Markey is the same as Nancy Pelosi.”

“If they win 30 to 35 seats, she’s one of them. As good as she is, she is clearly an Obama Democrat,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Denver-based pollster.

Markey contends she’s lived up to her billing as an independent voice for the district, voting against the president’s budget and the extension of unemployment compensation as well as opposing raising the debt ceiling. She vigorously frames her vote for health care as a cost-saver that will reduce the deficit, and her support for cap-and-trade as net benefit to a district with a burgeoning wind, solar and biomass industry.

“People say, oh, there’s so much spending. Here in Colorado we stand to gain so much,” she said.

Pressed on the public’s perception of the Obama agenda, Markey notes, “What’s most important is not that piece of legislation, it’s the economy and jobs. We’re always concerned about the national environment, but we’re not running a national race.”

In her first television ad, rather than highlighting Democratic accomplishments, Markey devoted 30 seconds to outlining her opposition to the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)—a vote that took place even before she was even elected.

“I’m Betsy Markey and I approve this message because bailout is just another word for copout,” she says in the spot.

In her second ad, released Tuesday, Markey notes her background as a small businesswoman, and speaks directly to the issue of federal spending.

“I’m Betsy Markey and I approve this message because Washington thinks spending more money is always the answer, and here in Colorado, that’s not how we do business.”

With half of her in-district campaign contributions from Republicans and independents, the congresswoman has already laid some of the groundwork necessary to be successful as a Democrat in a GOP-leaning district.

“That woman has gone toe to toe with everyone that’s been absolutely hateful and threatening and she wins them over,” said William Russell, the Democratic chair of fast-growing Larimer County, where half of the votes lie. “She goes across the aisle and talks to all sorts of people and . . . makes a very good case for defending her own votes.”

Democrats also foresee potential pitfalls for Gardner as he attempts to keep the conservative base content while he reaches out to the critical third of unaffiliated voters.

That balancing act has already proven to be challenging: In June, Gardner cancelled a campaign appearance with Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) after he said President Obama “favors the black person.”

King, who later appeared at a 9-12 rally with former Rep. Tom Tancredo, now a third-party candidate for Colorado governor, accused Gardner of caving “at the first sign of friction.” While Tancredo, who represented a nearby congressional district, has not indicated that he will revoke his endorsement of Gardner, he acknowledged he’d be open to supporting a better conservative who runs under the American Constitution party banner.

Doug Aden, the American Constitution party candidate in the 4th Congressional District, said one of the reasons he’s running is because Gardner believes the federal government should do more for public education.

“My position would be the federal government has absolutely no jurisdiction concerning the education of our children. I do not believe I am enabling Congresswoman Markey to hold her seat by siphoning votes away from Mr. Gardner, as I am running for the concerned American, whether registered Democrat, Republican or unaffiliated,” Aden said.

Republicans believe Aden—and independent candidate Ken Waszkiewicz—aren’t likely to have a significant impact on the race, though both candidates are on the more conservative side of the spectrum and would be more likely to draw from Gardner than Markey.

Either way, Republicans point to their good fortune in populous Weld County, which Markey carried in 2008, where the GOP ticket will have a local candidate will gin up voter enthusiasm as the Senate nominee—Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck.

“Ken Buck doesn't have passive supporters. They are really active supporters. They are people wearing shirts, with buttons. It drives turnout at the polls, but it also drives people to the phones and the doors and that's good for us,” said Gardner campaign manager Chris Hansen.