So, after 15 years, how are the IPCC predictions doing?

The picture of probable disruption, including adverse changes and some that are beneficial, emerges from draft sections of a new assessment of the climate problem by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In September 1995, the New York Times reported that IPCC scientists were predicting widespread climate disruption. (The IPCC was preparing the Second Assessment Report (SAR) released in 1996.)

The MRI2 model is the only one that is close to the actual temperature. And the B2 scenario has an “emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability.” So we have already achieved sustainability, even though the IPCC continues to promote alarmist scenarios. Temperatures are well below what most climate models have predicted. Fail .

The following figure shows the temperature projections for storyline B2 from various climate models, from the SAR.

The IPCC SAR temperature projections can be found here: [ https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-09.PDF ] The B2 “storyline” produces the lowest temperature projections than the of the various scenarios used in the SAR. From the report:

At this rate, the rise would be less than 13 inches from 1995 to 2100, not 18 inches. We are also 15 years into the 25 years until most of the US East Coast beaches will be gone. Fail .

The following figure shows the sea level rise since the IPCC report from satellite measurements [ http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ ].

“A continuing rise in average global sea level, which is likely to amount to more than a foot and a half by the year 2100 . … most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years [2020]. … Since its last full assessment in 1990, the panel has cut its estimate of expected average sea-level rise between now and 2100 from a "best estimate" of 26 inches to a little less than 20 inches, with a possible range of 10 to 31 inches.”

While mountain glaciers have been retreating since the 1800s, the rate has not increased (see: [ http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_4CE_Glaciers.htm ])

“A "striking" retreat of mountain glaciers around the world, accompanied in the Northern Hemisphere by a shrinking snow cover in winter. … Northern temperate regions would experience more rain and less snow in winter .”