Remember when the Big XII mentioned recently that a decision about conference expansion would happen before the 2016 season started? Well, the season is less than two weeks away (not counting the ridiculous Hawai’i-California game in Australia) and we are no closer than before in deciding which programs would get the invite.

Many pundits believe that ESPN put a squash to the four team addition that was thrown around previously. We are likely looking at a two team invite list to join the Power Five (or Power Six if you as AAC commish Mike Aresco).

Normally, I honestly could not possibly care less which teams end up taking the invite, but if teams leave the AAC, there will be shockwaves sent down the line. We could see programs from Conference USA, the Sun Belt, or even independents make the jump to a top tier G5 conference.I have decided to drop academic rankings from the criteria as is varies too wildly depending on what rankings are used.



Today we will focus on what programs should be targeted if the AAC loses one or two programs to the Big XII.

It is very unlikely that a team from the MWC or MAC would leave and take a spot in the AAC. It is possible, but unlikely so we will not look at that scenario right now. The most likely scenario involves a CUSA team or two jumping ship. I have added a couple of other teams from the Sun Belt and Independence as possibilities.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles:

Head Coach: Jay Hopson (0-0) First Season

Record Since 2000: 107-96

FBS Bowl Berths: 21 (25 including lower level bowl games) 10-11 overall record

FBS Conference Championships: 5. CUSA Titles in 1996, 1997, 1999, 2003, 2011.

Five Year Attendance: 25,595

TV Market: #167 (Hattiesburg-Laurel)

Record versus AAC members: 122-62-2

Distance to nearest AAC member: Tulane. 105.93 direct miles, 113 by car.

If going only by history, the Golden Eagles would be an easy pick. They are very close to another program (Tulane), have played over 180 games versus the current AAC lineup, have a history that includes over 20 bowl berths, and regularly bring in over 25,000 per game.

Marshall Thundering Herd:

Head Coach: Doc Holliday (50-28)

Record Since 2000: 117- 84

FBS Bowl Berths: 12. 10-2 overall record.

FBS Conference Championships: 6. MAC titles in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002. CUSA title in 2014.

Five Year Attendance: 25,915

TV Market: #65 (Charleston-Huntington)

Record versus AAC members: 28-37-1

Distance to nearest AAC member: Cincinnati. 121.1 direct miles, 149 by car.

While not sporting quite the history with AAC foes of Southern Miss, the Thundering Herd bring fans, are in a solid TV market, near another program, and have a great winning history at every level. Marshall wants desperately to make the move to the AAC so that they can say they have been in three of the five G5 conferences.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers:

Head Coach: Jeff Brohm (20-7)

Record Since 2000: 44-44 (only counted games as FBS program)

FBS Bowl Berths: 3. 2-1 record.

FBS Conference Championships: 1. CUSA title in 2015.

Five Year Attendance: 17,330

TV Market: #182 (Bowling Green)

Record versus AAC members: 9-10-1

Distance to nearest AAC member: Cincinnati. 182.48 direct miles, 219 by car.

A relative newbie to the FBS level compared to Marshall and Southern Miss, the Hilltoppers have moved up the pecking order in recent seasons. They have a great coach, a recent conference title, and are not terribly far from another AAC member. A poor TV market and low average attendance will hurt their chances.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders:

Head Coach: Rick Stockstill (64-61)

Record Since 2000: 95-98

FBS Bowl Berths: 5. 1-4 record.

FBS Conference Championships: 2. Sun Belt in 2001 and 2006.

Five Year Attendance: 17,896

TV Market: #29 (Nashville)

Record versus AAC members: 20-15-1

Distance to nearest AAC member: Memphis. 211.58 direct miles, 238.25 by car.

The biggest problem with MTSU is the fact that they are just kinda there. Nothing immediately stands out about the program as a whole, making them a tough choice. They do sport the largest university in Tennessee, have a top 3-0 media market in Nashville, and are not too far from AAC member Memphis.

UTSA Roadrunners:

Head Coach: Frank Wilson (0-0, first year)

Record Since 2000: 26-32 (2 winning seasons)

FBS Bowl Berths: None

FBS Conference Championships: None

Five Year Attendance: 28,909

TV Market: #37 (San Antonio)

Record versus AAC members: 3-1

Distance to nearest AAC member: Houston. 189.32 direct miles, 197 by car.

UTSA has several of the qualities the AAC is looking for in realignment, especially if they lose Houston to the Big XII. The biggest problem facing UTSA is the fact that the program is young and has done nothing on the FBS level. Does the AAC want to bring in a program that has the chance to be great, or one that is already very good but has a ceiling?

Florida Atlantic Owls:

Head Coach: Charlie Partridge (6-18)

Record Since 2000: 45-77 (only counted games as FBS program)

FBS Bowl Berths: 2. 2-0 record.

FBS Conference Championships: 1. Sun Belt in 2007

Five Year Attendance: 15,463

TV Market: #38 (West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce)

Record versus AAC members: 4-8

Distance to nearest AAC member: UCF. 168.58 direct miles, 193.85 by car.

While I think that FAU has virtually no chance at joining the AAC, I felt the need to add a Florida school to the mix. FAU is a much better choice than FIU, they are not a team that is ready for a move to the AAC.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs:

Head Coach: Skip Holtz (22-17)

Record Since 2000: 96-101

FBS Bowl Berths: 8. 4-3-1 record.

FBS Conference Championships: 2. WAC in 2001 and 2011.

Five Year Attendance: 21,411

TV Market: (N/A)

Record versus AAC members: 21-30

Distance to nearest AAC member: Tulane. 233.85 direct miles, 295.74 by car.

There are so many schools that have significant ambition to join the AAC. One you never hear about is Louisiana Tech. They pull in over 20,000 per game despite being as in the middle of nowhere as possible. I think the Bulldogs are happy in Conference USA unless another conference comes begging.

Old Dominion Monarchs:

Head Coach: Bobby Wilder (57-27, 19-17 at FBS level)

Record Since 2000: 11-13 (only counted games as FBS program)

FBS Bowl Berths: None

FBS Conference Championships: None

Five Year Attendance: 20,041

TV Market: #44 (Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News)

Record versus AAC members: 3-4-1

Distance to nearest AAC member: ECU. 104.73 direct miles, 121.98 by car.

For a program that literally didn’t exist just a few years ago, the Monarchs have high expectations. They are very forward in their desire to join the AAC and could be a viable option in the future. I am not so sure they are right now.

Arkansas State Red Wolves:

Head Coach: Blake Anderson (16-10)

Record Since 2000: 92-103

FBS Bowl Berths: 6. 2-4 record.

FBS Conference Championships: 5. Sun Belt titles in 2005, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015.

Five Year Attendance: 24,087

TV Market: #56 (Little Rock-Pine Bluff)

Record versus AAC members: 28-38-5

Distance to nearest AAC member: Memphis. 56.33 direct miles, 65 by car.

A dark horse candidate to make the jump, Arkansas State has been one of the most consistently excellent G5 teams of the last five seasons. They are close to Memphis, bring in over 24,000 per game, and win conference titles. The fact that they aren’t really a part of any large media market could be their downfall.

Massachusetts Minutemen:

Head Coach: Mark Whipple (6-18 at FBS level, previous stint 1998-2003: 49-26)

Record Since 2000: 6-18 (only counted games as FBS program)

FBS Bowl Berths: None

FBS Conference Championships: None

Five Year Attendance: 14,790

TV Market: #7 (Boston)

Record versus AAC members: 36-37-2

Distance to nearest AAC member: UConn. 43.01 direct miles, 51.69 by car.

Another dark horse candidate, the Minutemen look like a good addition in theory. Then you see the attendance, their youth as a program, and just overall program direction. They were kicked out of the MAC, that should tell you something. It would be great for UMass to join the AAC since they cannot live very long as an independent, they may have a better chance at joining CUSA or even the Sun Belt after realignment starts up again.

Other Candidates:

Sure, you could make a case for Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Louisiana, Texas State, or even New Mexico State, but they do not have the resumes of many teams on this list. Plus, it may be a better long term decision for the elite of the Sun Belt to stay after seeing just how little a move to CUSA helped many former conference mates.

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Let me know in the comments if there is a team you think I missed. Tell me why that team deserves to be part of the list.