But his confidence on this issue is even more peculiar because it comes just days after Trump made the frank admission that being president was tougher than he realized.

“I loved my previous life. I had so many things going,” Trump told Reuters. “This is more work than in my previous life. I thought it would be easier.”

One reason the presidency is tough is that people expect you to know things, whether that’s the root cause of the Civil War or the contents of a health-care bill you have endorsed. Trump’s blithe faith in his ability to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems rooted in the same essential ignorance about issues that has manifested itself elsewhere. To see what this means, it’s useful to look back at Trump’s comments about the conflict over the last 16 months or so, which show a man improvising his stance as he goes—but without any clear direction or refinement over time.

In December 2015, Trump questioned whether Israel is committed to the peace process, rattling Israel’s government and many Republicans. “I have a real question as to whether or not both sides want to make it,” he said in an AP interview. “A lot will have to do with Israel and whether or not Israel wants to make the deal—whether or not Israel's willing to sacrifice certain things. They may not be, and I understand that, and I'm OK with that. But then you're just not going to have a deal.” The same day, he reiterated that sentiment during a Republican Jewish Coalition event, where he also trafficked in some painful Jewish stereotypes.

In February 2016, Trump further rattled hardliners on Israel in the GOP by promising during a town-hall event to be a neutral broker in the peace process. “Let me be sort of a neutral guy, let's see what—I'm going to give it a shot. It would be so great," Trump said. The idea of breaking with longstanding U.S. sympathy toward Israel troubled many Republicans. But Trump at least acknowledged that cutting a deal could be an uphill battle. “A lot of people say an agreement can't be made, which is OK, sometimes agreements can't be made, not good,” he said. “It is a very, very tough agreement to make. But I will give it one hell of a shot.”

Because of these statements distancing himself from Israel, Trump’s March 21, 2016 speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee was hotly anticipated. Would he continue his rogue line? No—Trump delivered a fairly aggressive, hardline speech, taking the side of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and blaming Palestinians for the lack of peace. However, the speech, reportedly shaped by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and New York Observer editor Ken Kurson, was so nakedly partisan in its attacks on Barack Obama that AIPAC issued an unprecedented apology for it the following day.

A week later, Trump spoke to The New York Times, where he was characteristically vague. Did he support a two-state solution? “Well, I think a lot of people are saying it’s going to result in a two-state solution. What I would love to do is to, a lot of people are saying that. I’m not saying anything,” he said. Later in the same interview, however, he offered the basic U.S. line on the conflict for years: “Basically I support a two-state solution on Israel. But the Palestinian Authority has to recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state.”