The Conservative lead over Labour has shrunk to six points in the latest Opinium poll for the Observer, as Theresa May’s personal approval rating sank ahead of the final week of campaigning.

The research showed a two-point rise for Labour over the past week, which means the party has narrowed the Tories’ lead in the polls by more than 13 points since the start of the campaign.

Growing support for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, which has been signalled in several polls over the past seven days, has coincided with a major drop in support for May.

The prime minister has had a bruising campaign, having been accused of performing a U-turn on the Conservatives’ flagship social care policy and ducking debates with other leaders. On Saturday, she appeared at odds with the defence secretary, Michael Fallon, over tax pledges.

The poll found that on balance, the campaign has given British adults a worse impression of May, with 38% saying their opinion of the prime minister is more negative than at the start of the campaign, and 21% more positive. In comparison, 40% say their opinion of Corbyn is more positive now, and 16% more negative.

According to the Opinium research, the Tories have 43% of the vote, while Labour has 37%. If this were carried through to the election, the Conservatives would win a substantial majority. Ukip remains in fourth place on 5%, with the Liberal Democrats slipping slightly to 6% and the Green party on 2%.

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May’s approval rating is down from +11% last week to +6%, while Corbyn’s has held relatively steady on -12%. Although 42% think May would be the better prime minister, with 26% preferring Corbyn, this is a significant change from the first poll of the campaign, in which 49% thought May would be the best prime minister and 14% felt this about Corbyn.

Similarly, at the start of the campaign, 44% said they were satisfied with May and 16% dissatisfied, but only 20% preferred her to Corbyn. But the proportion satisfied with May and the proportion favouring Corbyn are now relatively similar at 34% and 33% respectively.

Apart from the rising prominence of terrorism, the research suggests other key issues in the election have remained consistently important. The parties’ policies on health and the economy have emerged as the most likely to drive voters’ decisions.



On Brexit, remainers are beginning to turn away from May, with 50% disapproving of the way she has handled the issue. The proportion that trust Labour on Brexit has risen from 13% to 19% throughout the campaign.

The small but steady erosion of the Tory lead comes as some pollsters suggest voters who backed Labour in 2015, but then turned away, are returning to the party.

The latest Guardian/ICM poll gave the Conservatives a healthy 12-point lead, but showed that Labour has gained a lead among unskilled working-class people for the first time in the campaign.

ComRes also found a gap of more than 10% between the two parties, and Kantar Public published a poll on Wednesday with a slightly increased Tory lead compared with its previous poll. The latest YouGov research had the narrowest gap between the parties so far, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 39% – the party’s highest rating in any poll since 2014.

The Survation poll on Saturday night showed a tightening of support between the Tories and Labour. Results showed that regarding intention of voting, Labour increased five points to 39% while the Conservatives fell by six points to 40%. The Lib Dems remained unchanged on 8%.

Britain Elects (@britainelects) Our polling average update:



> Labour at highest share since September 2014.

> Tories and Labour combined at 79.5%.https://t.co/0kc6bxEFSg pic.twitter.com/nw1K2vcuJn

On Saturday, the parties began their last-ditch attempts to win over voters, with leaders hitting the campaign trail across the country.

In Lincoln, Corbyn claimed the Conservatives’ tax plans were in chaos after May failed to back Fallon, who said higher earners would not face an income tax rise under a new Tory government.



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Fallon had said voting Conservative in the election was “the only way” people could be sure income tax would not go up, going further than the party’s manifesto, which said the Tories would keep taxes “low”, but did not rule out an increase in income tax.

Campaigning in West Yorkshire, May declined to be drawn on Fallon’s comments, saying only it was the Tories’ “firm intention” to reduce taxes for ordinary families.

“Our position on tax hasn’t changed. We have set it out in the manifesto,” she said. “What people will know when they go to vote on Thursday is that it is the Conservative party that always has been, is and always will be a low-tax party.”

Her comments were seized on by Corbyn, who said the Conservative leadership was in disarray. “I think there’s complete chaos going on at the top of the government,” he told reporters.

“One minister says they’re going to give no more tax rises, indeed possibly tax reductions for the very wealthiest, then they can’t answer the question about tax rises for the rest of the population, then they can’t answer the questions about funding social care.”

The Lib Dem former business secretary Sir Vince Cable said if the Conservatives were ruling out income tax rises, they would have to find the revenue from elsewhere to meet their spending commitments.

“Since they are ruling out increases in income, corporate tax and VAT, we must assume that there will be an increase in national insurance and in various ‘stealth taxes’ yet to be specified. It undoubtedly raises suspicions,” Cable said.

Meanwhile, Corbyn continued to face criticism for refusing to say whether he would launch a retaliatory nuclear strike during a BBC Question Time leaders’ special. While Labour officially backs the renewal of Trident, Corbyn has spoken against it in the past, and repeatedly dodged the question of whether he would “push the button” when pressed by the audience on Friday night.

May also faced a string of hostile questions, coming under sustained pressure over the Conservatives’ record on public sector pay, mental health services and social care. She faced particular scrutiny after a nurse confronted her over the 1% pay increase received by NHS staff, to which she responded: “I’m being honest with you saying we will put more money in, but there isn’t a magic money tree that we can shake to get everything we want.”

The leaders continue their media appearances on Sunday, with the Lib Dem leader, Tim Farron, scheduled to appear on the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show.