Riverside County is running out of time to change a projected spread of the novel coronavirus that could infect more than 65,000 residents, hospitalize more than 11,000 and kill more than 1,000 by early May, public health officials warned Friday, April 3.

The warning came as they urged the public to stay at home and cover their faces when going out of the house to stop the transmission of COVID-19.

There’s been progress, but it’s not enough to change frightening projections that would overwhelm the county’s 17 acute care hospitals, doctors wearing medical masks said during a news conference at the county-run Riverside University Health System – Medical Center in Moreno Valley.

“To those who continue to work who are non-essential, who gather at churches, at home, at parks – please stop, we beg you,” said Dr. Mike Mesisca, medical director for the county hospital’s emergency medicine department. “Small decisions, though they seem, will lead to deaths by the hundreds and thousands – perhaps 2,000 or more in this county alone.”

Dr. Geoff Leung, chief of family medicine in the county health system, said that while there are reports of COVID-19 cases slowing down in California, “that is not what we are seeing in Riverside County.”

“In Riverside County, our cases continue to rise exponentially and we have very little time to turn this around and prevent an impending surge,” he said.

Like the rest of California, the county is under a stay-at-home order issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom last month that shuttered most businesses in an effort to fight the virus. A county public health advisory issued Tuesday, March 31, recommended that residents cover their noses and mouths while in public. Supervisor V. Manuel Perez and county public health spokesman Jose Arballo Jr., among others, wore face coverings during Friday’s press briefing.

As of Friday, the county had confirmed 638 coronavirus cases and 15 deaths. Fifty people have recovered.

Right now, the county’s COVID-19 caseload is doubling every 4.7 days. At that rate, the county expects to have 65,536 cases, 11,141 hospitalizations and 1,245 deaths by May 6, according to a chart shown at the briefing. To put 11,000 hospitalizations in perspective, Leung said residents should imagine half the spectators at a Staples Center basketball game being hospitalized.

Leung said four preventative measures – testing, covering the face, closure of non-essential businesses and gathering places and enforcement – can slow the doubling rate. Doing one of those measures well could extend the doubling rate to 6.7 days, leading to 30,585 cases instead of more than 65,000 and 581 deaths instead of more than 1,200.

If three of those measures are done well, the doubling rate grows to 10.7 days with just 248 deaths and 13,108 cases in the county.

“But we have to do (the measures) well and we have to do them now, because we have very little time left before the impending surge,” Leung said.

Mesisca said cell phone data show a 50% reduction in county movements, while emergency room activity has gone down 20% to 40% and 911 calls have decreased 15%.

While he thanked the public for what it’s done so far, “we still have much further to go,” Mesisca said, noting that movement in other counties has gone down 70%.

“We have not gone far enough in taking the advice that we’ve provided,” Mesisca said.

One in 20 of those infected with COVID-19 will become critically ill, he said as he showed an X-ray of normal, healthy lungs next to lungs infected by the virus.

“The lung itself fills with fluid and cells,” Mesisca said. “The oxygen we apply, if we have to put in a breathing tube, will not be able to oxygenate the lungs. It won’t transfer in.”

Families won’t be allowed to see hospitalized loved ones, he said, adding that the county is in the third phase of a five-phase surge plan. The next phase stretches county hospital capacity to its licensed limit and the final phase calls for 6,000 more beds.

The county anticipates running out of ventilators by May, Mesisca said. Officials have already put out the call for medical equipment donations and health care professionals to volunteer their service by going to the county’s coronavirus website, www.rivcoph.org/coronavirus.

Meanwhile, county spokeswoman Brooke Federico said officials are still looking for a location for a 125-bed field hospital in the county’s western half. A similar 125-bed facility to help handle the COVID-19 surge has been set up at the county fairgrounds in Indio.

“We are working with the City of Riverside, as well as our state and federal partners to identify the location and go through the inspection process,” Federico said via email.

The location could be announced in days and setup would then begin, she said.