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CUSA membership stretches across a big geographic area.

Conference USA schools will descend on Birmingham this week for the conference's men's and women's basketball tournaments.

It could be the last trip to UAB for some of the schools.

Conference USA is expected to decide UAB's long-term fate in the coming weeks. In a Feb. 18 open letter, UAB interim athletic director Shannon Ealy wrote that Conference USA presidents will vote on the school's 2015-16 membership "within the next four weeks or so." UAB is hoping that it can stay in the conference for at least one more calendar year as it undergoes a review of its decision to disband its football program, which puts it at odds with C-USA's bylaws.

If C-USA decides to move forward without UAB, it could crank up another spin of the realignment carousel for the conference. C-USA has arguably been affected more than any other Division I conference in the country. A decade ago programs like Louisville, Cincinnati, TCU and Memphis populated Conference USA. But the conference was heavily poached by the Big East (now the American Athletic Association) and was forced to completely revamp its membership.

Only three charter conference members remain in C-USA. UAB is one.

"We are in a period of relative calm," Conference USA commissioner Britton Banowsky told Alabama Media Group. "UAB is an extraordinary circumstance, but everything around it is in good shape. 18 months ago we were kind of on the back side of it; we rebooted the league, we set some goals and we had a huge football season this year."

Realignment is slowed down, but not over

There was a period of time when it felt like schools were switching conferences every month. All of the Power 5 conferences -- ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC -- poached at least one school from another conference in the last five years. In recent years, Maryland and Rutgers leaving for the Big Ten, the ACC adding Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville and the SEC swiping Missouri and Texas A&M from the Big 12 generated big headlines.

Moves similar to that don't appear to be on the horizon. The majority of the big conferences have gotten their member institutions to sign grant-of-rights deals that would leave all television money with the conference if the school went elsewhere. This likely prevents Power 5 conferences stealing from one another, but it won't stop conferences like the Big 12 from dipping down to poach from the Group of 5 if it decides to actually get back to 12 schools.

"It's possible you could see some movement into one of those five higher-resource conferences or a shuffling among institutions within those conferences," said Rice athletic director Joe Karlgaard. "Whatever round of realignment -- and there will be more realignment at some point, I'm sure -- whatever we are seeing in the next couple of years will be very minor, if at all."

UAB departing Conference USA could cause a minor uptick in the carousel as the conference could look to add a 14th football-playing member. UAB would also have to find a new home, which in itself could create more realignment. The Sun Belt also has an uneven amount of members and could be in the market to add another school, UAB or otherwise.

The Atlantic Sun, a basketball-only conference, could add two or more schools to get to an even number if UAB became available. Atlantic Sun commissioner Ted Gumbart told Alabama Media Group there is strength in an eight school conference, but that the A-Sun is exploring expanding and would entertain adding attractive options.

"We need to be open and flexible enough to see what the options are," Gumbart said. "But also diligent enough to say it's not just anybody. Geography is part of what you consider fit, but it's more an institutional match than athletics."

What to expect

There are multiple possible outcomes and scenarios regarding C-USA's UAB decision. If the conference keeps the school through at least the 2015-16 season, as UAB hopes, it will likely continue to evaluate its best options and see what happens with the school's review of its decision to disband its football program. Realignment could still come with this outcome, but not in the short-term.

If UAB is forced to find a new home, realignment is happening. UAB will need to find a new home for its other teams as soon as possible. That could be in the Sun Belt, Atlantic Sun, Colonial Athletic Association or elsewhere. There's also the possibility UAB would have to play as an independent for a year as it seeks conference membership, which is the worst-case scenario.

Conference USA could stay pat for a year as it looks at options or it could immediately try to add a 14th football-playing member. Middle Tennessee State athletic director Chris Massaro mentioned Liberty and James Madison as two schools looking to move up to the FBS-level for football, and either could be an attractive option. The conference has recently dipped into that well when it added Charlotte and Old Dominion before either had a fully-fledged FBS football program.

Or it could try to poach from other conferences like the Sun Belt as it has frequently done in recent years.

While TV markets have driven much of conference realignment, it isn't always as big a factor for conferences like C-USA. In recent years the conference has primarily added schools from bigger markets, though also dipped into areas like Murfreesboro, Tenn. (Middle Tennessee State) and Bowling Green, Ky. (Western Kentucky).

The conference now has six schools in the nation's Top 50 television markets, including Miami, Houston and Charlotte, but its TV rights deal pales in comparison to Power 5 conferences. How popular a school actually is in its market can be just as, if not more, important than the market size.

"We'll have to factor in what's the penetration of that school in that particular TV market and how many sets they turn on," Rice AD Karlgaard said. "You can be in a big market and not turn on many sets, or in a small market and turn on a lot. In that sense, it's a wash."

A prime example is UAB. Birmingham is consistently the top-rated market for college football television viewing, yet the school has had issues with its football game attendance for decades. Just because a city is big, or even if it loves college football like Birmingham, it doesn't make the school itself benefits.

The more important factor could be finding a good geographic fit. The conference has a huge footprint, ranging from Old Dominion in Virginia to Florida International to Texas El-Paso, making traveling a costly endeavor for most schools. C-USA would need to add a school that not only adds to the bottom line, but won't considerably increase travel costs.