The stock market may never go down again.

Maybe not such a far-fetched notion, when you consider the Dow industrials yesterday nailed its 50th record close of the year and paid a visit to the 23,000 milestone, which it looks set to revisit and maybe stick to today.

To mark the occasion, Pension Partner’s Charlie Bilello, the originator of that opening comment, went on a bit of a tweetstorm. He noted how reaching that 23K milestone in other times would be a classic contrary indicator, but will probably juice this bull market another 1,000 points — which itself is less and less of a big deal:

To be sure, being in the trenches of this market since the election has been a bit crazy-making, even if it has made investors some money. And naturally, there is discomfort out there over the speed of gains, such as how the DJIA has overcome a pile of worries to gain 4,700-plus points in just under a year.

Given that, taking a step back and a look around is never a bad idea. That brings us to our call of the day from Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management, who has a timely warning on an “air pocket” that’s coming as we near the 30th anniversary of Black Monday.

“If you look at the all of the different constituencies of the market today, it resembles the portfolio insurance debacle of 1987 on steroids,” he says an interview with Real Vision TV released to YouTube today, but recorded a few weeks ago.

What will it take to set off a stock market correction? When a 4% or 5% decline in equities quicky morphs into a 10 or 15% decline. “That’s what you have to look for,” Hayman’s chief investment officer says.

“If you see the equity market crack 4 or 5 points, buckle up, because I think we’re going to see a pretty interesting air-pocket, and I don’t think investors are ready for that,” Bass warns.

What’s exacerbating the situation is the massively popular shift from active to passive investing over the years. That means risk is “in the hands of people who don’t know how to take risk,” the hedge fund manager says.

Other big names in finance gave Real Vision interviews for its piece on the potential for a major market correction — the problem with valuations right now, the parallels to 1987 — and of course, what investors should do now.

For one, the Felder Report’s Jesse Felder says buying the stock market is “essentially taking on an incredible amount of risk ... for the prospect of zero reward over the next 10 years.”

The message overall was clearly to cut back on a bit of risk, look at cash, and peel back a bit on where there have been some good runs.

Don’t miss: Three reasons the next crash may be worse than 1987’s

And: What would happen to ETFs, not around in 1987, if we got a repeat of that big crash?

Key market gauge

The Dow industrials DJIA, -0.87% are over that 23,000 top in early trade, with the S&P 500 SPX, -1.11% just in the black, but the Nasdaq COMP, -1.07% struggling. Gold US:GCZ7 is dipping, and the dollar DXY, +0.29% is mostly higher. WTI crude US:CLZ7 and Brent UK:LCOZ7 are rising ahead of official U.S. supply data is due later. At a conference in London, the CEO of Total said any OPEC deal would need to last two years to help balance the market and boost prices.

Asian markets ADOW, -0.61% rose as China’s party congress kicked off. In Europe, the DAX DAX, -2.47% was headed for a new closing high.

Read: China’s Xi makes swipe at ‘America First’ — and 4 other key parts of his big speech

See the Market Snapshot column for more.

The chart

The metals and mining sector has found some new life in the second half of this year, notes Greg Guenthner in a blog post for Daily Reckoning.

“Right now, I’m all about industrial metals,” he says, noting that strong data out of China has been lifting copper skyward. That metal US:HGZ7 hit the highest settlement since August 2014 on Monday, and is up nearly 8% so far this month.

Check out his post for ideas on how to play that run for copper and other metals.

Earnings

IBM IBM, -1.72% has reached a 5 1/2 month high, after beating profit and sales expectations, and it could add over 50 points to the Dow this morning. Still, don’t get too impressed as it’s all about avoiding taxes.

Fogo de Chão US:FOGO is down after the Brazilian steakhouse chain’s forecast missed Wall Street’s view.

No big earnings until after the close when we’ll get Amex AXP, -1.16% , Alcoa AA, -0.96% , eBay EBAY, -0.06% and United Airlines UAL, -3.61% .

Check out previews for eBay , GE and PayPay

The buzz

If PG&E PCG, -0.71% is found responsible for the devastating Napa Valley fires, California Sen. Jerry Hill says the company shouldn’t do business in the state anymore.

Baidu BIDU, -0.00% says it will launch a self-driving bus in China by next year.

Qualcomm QCOM, -3.64% CEO says deal for NXP Semiconductors NXPI, -1.30% is on track to close by year end.

Former college basketball coach Rick Pitino is suing Adidas ADS, -2.21% . He says the sportswear company smeared his reputation by implicating him in an alleged bribery scandal involving recruits.

This author says Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all be gone in our lifetimes, says Scott Galloway, author of “The Four.”

Read:If Amazon is getting into the pharmacy business, this is what you need to know

Housing starts tumbled in September. Still to come, the Fed’s beige book at 2 p.m. Read a preview here.

The stat

The odds that the Fed will hike interest rates in December, just took a big leap:

Read:Trump Fed chief choice seen being made before Asia trip, reports say

The quote

“Warning to evil clowns and anyone considering creepy clown activity: We will not be there to save you if your intended target defends himself or herself, and you may face other penalties as well.” — That’s a warning from Volusia County Sheriff’s Office to those thinking of donning the costume for Halloween and getting up to no good, reported by the Miami Herald.

Recall last year’s clown trouble, when Pennywise wasn't even a thing?

Random reads

Trump reportedly tells Green Beret widow: “He knew what he signed up for.”

Dyslexia may be treatable

Tortured genius. The struggle is real.

Fear of spiders leads man to burn his house down

Celtic’s Gordon Hayward had a brutal injury in his debut last night

Fatalities tied to cellphones rising at an alarming rate

Missing Vegas shooting security guard shows up — on “Ellen”

Utah high school probes racist video by teen girls

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