The mocking image of Californians fleeing for other states is simply wrong.

Snippets of demographic data have been used to suggest that California policy – among other things such as high taxes and regulation – are nudging huge numbers of residents to exit the state.

Look, no place is perfect, and California has its faults, notably a high cost of living and steep educational and professional requirements for many of its fast-growing professions. But while seeking insight into recent population trends, my trusty spreadsheet showed me California is pretty popular with its residents – but not so much with folks from elsewhere.

We often forget how big California is and how many people live here – far more than any state. So, numerous state-by-state rankings of economic or demographic patterns will likely have California at or near the top, for good or bad, just based on its sheer size.

To me, watching trends on a per-capita basis – leveling the population playing field – helps to better see trends. So when the Census Bureau recently reported California had a “negative out-migration” to other states – 129,233 in 2015, largest since the recession ended and second largest in the nation – it was time for the state’s critics to say “I told you so” and warn that we may be scaring off our best and brightest.

But when you account for California’s largest-in-nation population (38.7 million in 2015), the out-migration figure – calculated by taking moves to California from other states then subtracting moves out – you find the net departures equal a barely perceptible 3 folks leaving us per 1,000 residents. (And by the way, 14 states performed worse.)

Some who’ve seen me use this per-capita number have called me callous to the challenges of California living. Others tell me anecdotal evidence of people who fled the state.

In return, I’ve dug deeper to learn that indeed departures are a relative rarity when you apply a national context to the trends. That’s a fair benchmark in my eyes since you frequently hear about folks and business rushing off to other purportedly “cheaper” or “friendlier” states.

Let me make my case, with the help of state-by-state migration data:

Lots of exits

California did lose 3.5 million people to other states in the 2010-2015 period. It’s sad to see family, friends and co-workers chase their dreams elsewhere. And that’s more than any other state.

The much-heralded Texas, a top destination for departing Californians, had the second-biggest loss of residents in these six years: 2.5 million. Then came New York, 2.4 million, and Florida, 2 million.

People move. And big states will lose plenty of people, no matter what.

Tiny in comparison

Remember, California is huge. So, that outflow of 3.2 million folks translates to an average annual 1.55 percent of California residents moving out of state during the 2010-15 period.

No state had a lower per-capita movement rate than California. Yes, we Californians are the least likely to move out! Next best state for keeping its citizens? Texas at 1.6 percent annually, then Ohio and Michigan at 1.8 percent.

Note: 2.3 percent of Americans moved across state lines annually in 2010-2015. Worst exit rates? Energy-rich states in cold climates: Alaska 11.6 percent, Wyoming 5.4 percent and North Dakota 3.89 percent.

More moves overall

I don’t want to sound totally pollyana-ish. In 2015, California lost 643,710 residents to other states, up 8 percent from 2014 and up 12 percent from the end of the recession.

Is this trend a statement about California’s quality of life or pent-up demand to move? Economic recovery creates opportunity and 35 states had a growing number of departures in 2015.

Total interstate moves nationwide in 2015 were 2.4 percent higher than 2014 and 12 percent above 2010. When we look at California’s 2015 exits on a per-capita basis, the state had the second-lowest departure rate, trailing Texas.

Why out-migration?

So how does California consistently have significant net out-migration to other states?

Because we’re not very good, relatively speaking, at attracting people from across the nation.

One fact rarely discussed is that California took in 2.9 million people from other states in 2010-15. Only Florida (3.2 million) and Texas (3.1 million) had more. But that number camouflages California’s growth challenge.

Look at arrivals on a per-capita basis and you’ll see that in those six years California got new residents from other states at a yearly rate averaging 1.3 percent of its population. That’s well below the U.S. rate 2.3 percent of residents moving interstate and the worst in the nation, with Michigan and New York next at 1.4 percent.

Our high costs – for example, homes are twice as costly – are a barrier to relocating workers. California ranks 22nd in corporate job incentives among all states, according to tracker Good Jobs First.

California’s leaders and policy makers should look how to recruit more Americans here instead of endlessly complaining about departures, which are relatively insignificant.

Secret sauce

So how does California’s population grow if we’re not attracting fellow Americans?

Well, new babies help, but the state’s birth rate is historically low. The real secret is California’s attractiveness to folks from foreign lands. In 2010-15, California totaled 1.7 million new residents from outside the U.S. That’s well ahead of Texas, 1.2 million, and Florida, 1.1 million.

By my per-capita math, foreigners added to the population at a 0.76 percent annual rate since 2010, a pace running above the nation’s 0.6 percent rate. This puts the state a sliver ahead of Texas and Rhode Island, and eighth-highest behind Hawaii, Massachusetts, Florida, Washington, New York, Maryland and Virginia.

California may look crowded and costly to other Americans. There’s a different view in the rest of the world.

Contact the writer: jlansner@scng.com

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