General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

Senate map with polls Previous report Next report News: Updated Apr. 09



Both beat McCain ≥ 5% McCain beats both ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by < 5% Clinton > Obama by < 5% Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5% In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better.

Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly

But white centers are statistical ties.

News from the Votemaster

Is Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) a liberal? Is Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a moderate? What about the other 98 senators? Where do they fit on the ideological spectrum? Let's look at some numbers. Hundreds of interest groups rate all members of Congress on how they vote on bills of special importance to them. If you vote with them all the time, you get a 100% rating. If you vote against them all the time, you get a 0% rating. These numbers are then distributed to their membership in an attempt to get members to vote for good members of Congress and against bad ones.

These ratings give us a tool to rate all the senators (there are too many House members to do this unless I can find a volunteer). Below seven representative liberal groups have been chosen and their ratings of all the senators given. The last column is the mean value. If you are a liberal, a high score is good (always votes correctly). If you are a conservative, a low score is good (never sucked in by that liberal stuff).

There are many noteworthy items to be found here. To start with, it is all blue on top and all red on the bottom (with senators Sanders and Lieberman counting as honorary Democrats since they caucus with the Democrats). With three exceptions, all Republicans are less liberal than the most conservative Democrat, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD). The three exceptions are the two ladies from Maine, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who are strongly pro-choice. If NARAL and abortion were not in the list, they would drop dramatically. The other Republican who floated to the top is Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), who, unlike John McCain, really is a maverick.

To start with, the Senate is incredibly polarized. Younger readers may not believe this, but it was not always so. In the 1950s and 1960s, the Senate was far less ideological. Northern Republicans like Jacob Javits (R-NY) were actually quite liberal and southern Democrats like Sen. James Eastland (D-MS) were still angry with the Republicans for freeing the slaves. In those days, the great divide was north-south, not Democrats-Republicans. Only when Richard Nixon began implementing his Southern strategy (i.e., using racism to win the votes of poor Southern whites) did we get to the current polarization.

So, what about Obama, Clinton, and McCain? Obama at 80% and Clinton at 82% are (1) not far apart and (2) among the least liberal Democrats. In contrast, John McCain at 9% is one of the most conservative Republicans. When McCain campaigned this year as a true conservative, he was telling the truth. He is more conservative than Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the minority leader, and more conservative than all the senators from Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia, not known as hotbeds of liberalism. Conclusion: when people say Obama and Clinton are liberals, that's not true; when people say McCain is a conservative, that is true.

That aside, there are some real anomalies here. For example, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) is quite liberal, more so than the Barbaras (Boxer and Mikulski, both of whom are known as real firebrands). But Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is the most conservative Democrat, despite the demographics of the two states being pretty similar. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who is often referred to in the blogosphere as a crypto-Republican actually has a more liberal rating than the other senator from Connecticut, Chris Dodd, who ran for President as a liberal.

Among Republicans, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) is one of the most liberal, despite coming from a rock-ribbed Republican state. And Lugar's record of being one of the Senate's few grown-ups on foreign policy issues does not even play a role here. And what about Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) of Utah? He ranks in the top quarter of Republicans. Surprise.

One caveat: a different selection of interest groups would no doubt give a different ordering. Still, this gives an indication. If you want to play with the data yourself, it is available in .csv format. A similar study of conservative groups is in the works and will be posted here in due course of time.

The table below is sorted on mean rating. Additional ratings from other interest groups can be found at www.vote-smart.org.

The seven groups used in this study are:

For Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), some of his votes were made as a House member before he was appointed to the Senate. The 2005 senator ratings are available here.

State Senator ACLU ADA CDF LCV NAACP NARAL SEIU Mean Maryland Ben Cardin (D) 91% 95% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 96% Wisconsin Russ Feingold (D) 91% 95% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 96% New Jersey Bob Menendez (D) 91% 95% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 96% Rhode Island Jack Reed (D) 91% 95% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 96% Hawaii Daniel Akaka (D) 91% 95% 100% 87% 93% 100% 91% 94% New Mexico Jeff Bingaman (D) 91% 90% 100% 93% 100% 100% 83% 94% Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) 91% 95% 100% 87% 100% 100% 83% 94% Illinois Dick Durbin (D) 82% 95% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 94% Iowa Tom Harkin (D) 90% 95% 100% 87% 100% 100% 83% 94% New Jersey Frank Lautenberg (D) 86% 90% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 94% Vermont Patrick Leahy (D) 91% 95% 100% 80% 100% 100% 91% 94% Washington Patty Murray (D) 90% 90% 100% 87% 100% 100% 91% 94% Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 82% 95% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 94% Washington Maria Cantwell (D) 91% 95% 90% 87% 100% 100% 91% 93% New York Charles Schumer (D) 91% 90% 90% 93% 87% 100% 100% 93% Oregon Ron Wyden (D) 91% 95% 90% 87% 100% 100% 91% 93% Massachusetts John Kerry (D) 90% 90% 90% 93% 100% 90% 90% 92% Wisconsin Herbert Kohl (D) 64% 95% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 92% Vermont Bernard Sanders (I) 91% 95% 90% 93% 100% 100% 75% 92% Michigan Carl Levin (D) 82% 95% 100% 67% 100% 100% 90% 91% Nevada Harry Reid (D) 82% 85% 100% 87% 100% 100% 83% 91% Pennsylvania Robert Casey (D) 73% 100% 100% 100% 100% 65% 91% 90% Minnesota Amy Klobuchar (D) 73% 100% 100% 67% 100% 100% 91% 90% Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D) 86% 100% 100% 67% 100% 100% 75% 90% North Dakota Byron Dorgan (D) 100% 85% 90% 87% 93% 100% 66% 89% California Barbara Boxer (D) 80% 80% 90% 80% 93% 100% 91% 88% Maryland Barbara Mikulski (D) 45% 85% 100% 93% 100% 100% 91% 88% Delaware Thomas Carper (D) 57% 85% 90% 93% 93% 100% 91% 87% Massachusetts Edward Kennedy (D) 82% 85% 90% 93% 80% 90% 90% 87% Florida Bill Nelson (D) 36% 90% 90% 100% 100% 100% 91% 87% Montana Jon Tester (D) 91% 95% 80% 80% 100% 100% 66% 87% Indiana Evan Bayh (D) 55% 95% 100% 73% 93% 100% 83% 86% California Diane Feinstein (D) 55% 90% 100% 87% 87% 100% 81% 86% Colorado Ken Salazar(D) 64% 85% 90% 73% 100% 100% 91% 86% Hawaii Daniel Inouye (D) 36% 90% 100% 80% 100% 100% 91% 85% Virginia James Webb (D) 55% 85% 90% 87% 93% 100% 75% 84% West Virginia John Rockefeller (D) 55% 85% 100% 73% 93% 100% 75% 83% New York Hillary Clinton (D) 82% 75% 70% 73% N/A 100% 91% 82% Missouri Claire McCaskill (D) 64% 90% 80% 73% 100% 100% 66% 82% Montana Max Baucus (D) 91% 80% 80% 67% 93% 100% 58% 81% West Virginia Robert Byrd (D) 82% 80% 90% 73% 87% 100% 54% 81% Illinois Barack Obama (D) 88% 75% 60% 67% N/A 100% 90% 80% North Dakota Kent Conrad (D) 64% 80% 90% 73% 87% 75% 75% 78% Connecticut Joseph Lieberman (I) 27% 70% 100% 93% 87% 100% 72% 78% Connecticut Christopher Dodd (D) 80% 70% 60% 60% N/A 100% 88% 76% Arkansas Mark Pryor (D) 45% 70% 90% 60% 93% 100% 66% 75% Maine Olympia Snowe (R) 55% 60% 90% 80% 80% 100% 58% 75% Delaware Joe Biden (D) 88% 75% 50% 67% N/A 75% 90% 74% Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D) 40% 90% 80% 67% 93% 60% 91% 74% Maine Susan Collins (R) 45% 55% 90% 100% 67% 100% 50% 72% Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D) 55% 80% 80% 53% 93% 65% 66% 70% Nebraska Ben Nelson (D) 45% 75% 90% 67% 80% 25% 83% 66% Pennsylvania Arlen Specter (R) 36% 60% 70% 60% 73% 100% 41% 63% South Dakota Tim Johnson (D) 43% 40% 50% 33% 33% 90% 100% 56% Oregon Gordon Smith (R) 36% 55% 70% 73% 53% 40% 50% 54% Indiana Richard Lugar (R) 30% 45% 80% 53% 47% 40% 50% 49% Minnesota Norm Coleman (R) 18% 50% 80% 33% 67% 0% 63% 44% Alaska Lisa Murkowski (R) 27% 30% 60% 40% 53% 75% 25% 44% Alaska Ted Stevens (R) 18% 25% 70% 27% 33% 75% 25% 39% Virginia John Warner (R) 27% 35% 60% 47% 33% 40% 25% 38% Wyoming Thomas (R) (d. 2007) 100% N/A 50% 0% 20% N/A 0% 34% Utah Orrin Hatch (R) 18% 30% 70% 13% 53% 0% 45% 33% New Hampshire John Sununu (R) 36% 15% 60% 53% 40% 0% 25% 33% Iowa Charles Grassley (R) 18% 30% 60% 33% 47% 0% 25% 30% Ohio George Voinovich (R) 27% 25% 50% 20% 53% 0% 16% 27% Tennessee Lamar Alexander (R) 20% 20% 60% 33% 33% 0% 16% 26% Tennessee Bob Corker (R 9% 20% 60% 27% 33% 0% 25% 25% New Mexico Pete Domenici (R) 9% 25% 60% 20% 47% 0% 16% 25% Nebraska Chuck Hagel (R) 27% 30% 40% 20% 20% 0% 41% 25% Texas Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 9% 20% 70% 7% 40% 0% 25% 24% Missouri Kit Bond (R) 9% 25% 50% 0% 27% 25% 16% 22% Mississippi Trent Lott (R) (resigned) 17% 15% 50% N/A N/A 0% 16% 20% Utah Robert Bennett (R) 9% 15% 50% 7% 33% 0% 25% 20% New Hampshire Judd Gregg (R) 20% 10% 30% 60% 13% 0% 8% 20% South Dakota John Thune (R) 9% 20% 40% 33% 27% 0% 8% 20% Idaho Larry Craig (R) 22% 15% 50% 13% 13% 0% 16% 18% Wyoming John Barrasso (R) N/A 10% 33% 33% N/A 0% 0% 15% Florida Mel Martinez (R) 9% 20% 50% 13% 13% 0% 16% 17% Alabama Richard Shelby (R) 18% 20% 40% 7% 27% 0% 8% 17% North Carolina Elizabeth Dole (R) 18% 15% 40% 7% 27% 0% 8% 16% Kansas Pat Roberts (R) 9% 20% 40% 0% 27% 0% 16% 16% Alabama Jeffrey Sessions (R) 18% 10% 40% 13% 20% 0% 8% 16% Georgia Saxby Chambliss (R) 10% 10% 40% 7% 27% 0% 8% 15% Kentucky James Bunning (R) 20% 10% 30% 7% 13% 0% 16% 14% Mississippi Thad Cochran (R) 9% 15% 50% 0% 27% 0% 0% 14% Idaho Mike Crapo (R 18% 15% 30% 13% 20% 0% 0% 14% Nevada John Ensign (R) 9% 0% 40% 33% 7% 0% 8% 14% South Carolina Lindsey Graham (R) 14% 20% 30% 7% 20% 0% 9% 14% Georgia Johnny Isakson (R) 9% 10% 40% 7% 27% 0% 8% 14% Wyoming Michael Enzi (R) 18% 10% 40% 13% N/A 0% 0% 14% Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R) 9% 10% 30% 7% 27% 0% 8% 13% Kansas Sam Brownback (R) 0% 5% 40% 7% N/A 0% 12% 11% Colorado Wayne Allard (R) 9% 10% 30% 20% 7% 0% 0% 11% Texas John Cornyn (R) 9% 15% 40% 0% 13% 0% 0% 11% North Carolina Richard Burr (R) 9% 0% 30% 7% 13% 0% 8% 10% Louisiana David Vitter (R) 18% 10% 20% 0% 13% 0% 9% 10% Arizona Jon Kyl (R) 9% 5% 30% 13% 0% 0% 8% 9% Arizona John McCain (R) 17% 10% 10% 0% N/A 0% 14% 9% Oklahoma Tom Coburn (R) 18% 5% 20% 7% 0% 0% 8% 8% South Carolina Jim DeMint (R) 18% 0% 20% 7% 0% 0% 8% 8% Oklahoma James Inhofe (R) 18% 10% 20% 0% 0% 0% 8% 8% Mississippi Roger Wicker (R) 0% N/A 20% 5% N/A N/A N/A 3%

Thanks to Mike Martin for collecting the data.

Here are the new polls. It is hard to say what is going on in Pennsylvania. The polls are all over the map.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul North Carolina SurveyUSA Apr. 7 39% 49% Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 6 50% 44% Pennsylvania Rasmussen Apr. 7 48% 43% Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Apr. 7 56% 38%

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul Washington Post 1501 1638 +137 1334 278 NY Times 1472 1628 +154 12 1162 142 232 5 AP 1501 1638 +137 18 1334 257 278 14 CNN 1486 1629 +143 26 1325 255 267 16 ABC 1496 1633 +137 32 1267 273 272 14 CBS 1493 1631 +138 26 1241 149 231 10 MSNBC 1507 1642 +135 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.