Fenn Rau should 2-straight, giving him an 98% chance of killing Wedge for the win.

I assume, given the lists, that the Scum player passed initiative, allowing him to move last [editorial note: I originally forgot to include player order in the Puzzle. Whoops!]. If he did not, there is a chance the rebel player can win through guesswork, as I’ll explain later. For now, assuming that Dutch moves, then Wedge, then Fenn, Fenn Rau can catch Wedge in his front arc at range 1 guaranteed by going 2-straight. This is guaranteed by Wedge’s double stress, which prevents him from any kind of repositioning in the next turn. Here is a map of all of Wedge’s possible ending locations, with Fenn’s 2-straight shown.

Most of Wedge’s final positions find him already in range 1, and none of them block the 2-straight. A few of Wedge’s moves leave him not at range 1 of Fenn’s 2-straight. However, a barrel roll or boost can quickly solve that, followed by linking to a focus action for extra modifiers for Fenn Rau’s devastating 5-dice primary attack.

A 5 dice primary with a focus, rolling against 2 defense with no modifiers (Wedge, having been double stressed, could not have focused) has a 98% chance to do at least 1 damage.

Going after Dutch is a horrid idea. Firstly, if Dutch performs a 4-straight or 4 k-turn, there is no move that Fenn Rau can make to get a shot on Dutch the next round. A 1-turn followed by a boost doesn’t do it, and neither does a 2-talon roll. However, even if you somehow knew that Dutch was going to do a 1-straight (let’s say maybe he was ionized), it would still be the wrong choice to 2-talon roll and try to catch him. As Fenn would have no dice modifiers, and Dutch would have a focus token for defense, his chance of dealing the needed 3 damage to 1-agility Dutch is only 5%.

If Wedge were to be moving last, it is possible he could select a move which Fenn Rau could not catch in his arc by doing a 2-straight (such as a 2-left turn). Fenn Rau could 2-straight and barrel roll to account for this, but if Wedge predicted that and did a 2 right turn instead, he would avoid getting shot entirely, securing the win. At that point, it would just come down to a battle of wits.

-W