Ohio State Buckeyes 31, Minnesota Golden Gophers 24

Vonn Bell (11) and the Buckeyes will at least move to No. 7 and could even be a spot higher in the College Football Playoff poll this week after what happened Saturday, including the Buckeyes' win at Minnesota.

(Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer)

MINNEAPOLIS -- Ohio State's break Saturday didn't arrive until one of the last games of the night.

After No. 3 Florida State escaped with a win in a primetime game that had the Buckeyes as big fans of Miami, No. 6 Arizona State blew a 10-point halftime lead in a loss at Oregon State and gave Ohio State the upset that meant progress was made in Ohio State's climb toward the College Football Playoff.

No. 8 last week, Ohio State (9-1, 6-0 Big Ten) probably won't move any higher than No. 7 when the latest College Football Playoff poll is released Tuesday, though there's a chance the Buckeyes could make a bigger leap. The Buckeyes didn't have any of the three major games they were rooting for go their way. But one of the down-the-line possibilities that would have hurt their playoff chances - a Pac-12 title game between one-loss teams - was eliminated.

People are still trying to figure out the selection committee, which, for instance, flip-flopped the positions of No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Florida State and No. 4 TCU and No. 5 Alabama last week while all the teams won.

Here's a guess, based on how the committee has acted, how things might look Tuesday.

No. 1 Oregon, 9-1, Pac-12: The committee liked Oregon's three wins over top 25 teams last week, and unlike some other teams, the Ducks didn't see any of those wins lessened by those teams losing over the weekend. Oregon was off this week, but the Ducks could certainly make the move to No. 1 from No. 2. We know there will be a new No. 1 after Mississippi State's loss to Alabama.

No. 2 Alabama, 9-1, SEC: No. 5 a week ago, Alabama obviously is moving into the top four. It's just a matter of where. It could be at either No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3. The 25-20 win over No. 1 Mississippi State was at home, and part of the praise for Oregon from the committee has been the Ducks' road wins at UCLA and Utah. Alabama's best road win is at LSU, which is now a four-loss team after giving Arkansas its first SEC win in two years under Bret Bielema on Saturday. Auburn and Texas A&M also lost Saturday, which may have taken some shine off the SEC West. So no top spot for Bama.

No. 3 Florida State, 10-0, ACC: The only power conference team still unbeaten stays where it was last week, after a 30-26 win at Miami. How will the committee take that win? As a plus on the road against a four-loss team? Or as a near-loss? Florida State's best wins are Notre Dame, Clemson and Louisville, and both the Fighting Irish and Tigers lost Saturday, with Notre Dame falling to Northwestern. The ACC isn't gaining much respect, so while Florida State could make a No. 1 case, this is more likely.

No. 4 TCU, 9-1, Big 12: The Horned Frogs trailed most of the way until the end of the third quarter at three-win Kansas before taking the lead and holding on for a 34-30 win on the road. Not impressive. And TCU could lose the No. 4 spot it held last week. The battle here is with Mississippi State, but the guess is that the Horned Frogs' wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma win out. It may help TCU that its 30-7 win over Minnesota looks OK since the Golden Gophers played Ohio State to a touchdown game, though the Buckeyes dominated in the feel of the game and in the stats.

No. 5 Mississippi State, 9-1, SEC: The Bulldogs certainly aren't out of the playoff picture and could win their way back in to the top four. But the previous No. 1 now won't go to the SEC Championship out of the West Division unless Alabama loses to Auburn in the final week. The Crimson Tide holds the tiebreaker. But with Vanderbilt and then No. 10 Ole Miss to end the season, Mississippi State has a shot for a big road win to cap the year.

The Bulldogs' best wins so far took a hit Saturday. Those best wins are at 7-4 LSU and home against 7-3 Auburn and 7-4 Texas A&M, and all those teams lost. The best part of Mississippi State's argument is how good its loss is - on the road by five points to a top four team (though Mississippi State's final touchdown came with just 15 seconds left. It wasn't like the Builldogs had a real chance to drive for the win.)

Either No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6 would make sense for Mississippi State.

No. 6 Baylor, 8-1, Big 12: This is almost Ohio State in my mind, and very well could be. Baylor was off Saturday and has three games remaining, against 5-5 Oklahoma State, 3-7 Texas Tech and 7-2 Kansas State. Baylor's case at the moment is primarily based off its win over TCU.

No. 7 Ohio State, 9-1, Big Ten: Boy, it really feels like Ohio State could be higher. With the loss by previous No. 6 Arizona State, this is the lowest the previously No. 8 Buckeyes could be. There are no other power conference one-loss teams to consider. The issue is how the committee views the Minnesota win, because while other teams saw their body of work take hits Saturday, the Buckeyes' resume improved.

Michigan State, the best win, won on the road at Maryland to move to 8-2. Virginia Tech, the albatross loss, got its best win, winning 17-16 at No. 21 Duke.

The Hokies are now 5-5. Is that really any more of a bad loss than Baylor's loss to 6-4 West Virginia? Well, Baylor's loss was on the road and Ohio State's was at home.

So by a hair, keep the Buckeyes here. But given what else happened Saturday, wins over 8-2 Michigan State, 7-3 Minnesota, 6-4 Maryland, 6-4 Penn State and a loss to 5-5 Virginia Tech may stack up pretty well, especially with how the Buckeyes are playing on the field.

The turnovers Saturday really hurt Ohio State and kept the score from looking more impressive. But it was a road win over a team that was ranked No. 25. And the Buckeyes did get a little help from Oregon State. Progress was made, with three more weeks left in the season, two in the regular season and championship weekend.

The committee almost certainly won't put the Buckeyes in the top four yet. But they're a little closer.