Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/3-5. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/29-31 results)

GOP primary, Governor Jan Brewer (R) 32

Buz Mills (R) 14

Dean Martin (R) 13

John Munger (R) 5

Undecided 36 GOP primary, Senate John McCain (R) 48 (52)

J.D. Hayworth (R) 36 (37)

We didn't poll the governor's race last time, an oversight on my part. In the Senate primary, McCain is now under 50 percent. These numbers are actually quite similar to the polling average, though Rasmussen is the usual outlier with a much tighter race.

In the general election:

Senate John McCain (R) 48 (52)

Rodney Glassman (D) 35 (33) J.D. Hayworth (R) 43 (48)

Rodney Glassman (D) 42 (37)



Yup, start rooting for J.D. Note that McCain is only getting 10 percent of Latino support. He got 74 percent of Latinos in 2004, and 40 percent of them in his presidential bid in 2008.

And now he's down to 10 percent. The Arizona GOP has lost Latinos, virtually overnight. That will have an impact this year, and it'll have an impact on John Kyl's race in two years, and into the future.

Governor Jan Brewer (R) 42

Terry Goddard (D) 48

Goddard has double-digit leads on the rest of the GOP field. Jan Brewer's support among Latinos is nine percent, while once upon a time Republicans routinely got at least 40 percent of the Latino vote In statewide races.

Arizona Republicans are about to learn the same lesson that California Republicans learned -- waking a sleeping giant is never a good idea.

One more nugget, we are now asking the Health Care Law repeal question in every state we poll. In our previous poll of Arizona, the repeals had the edge, 44-39, with independents choosing repeal 39-33. This week, it's a 42-42 split, with Independents also tied on the question 36-36.

The GOP is boxed into repeal. If the public continues to warm to the health care law, the GOP's fall strategy takes a serious blow.