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The Conservatives would win 107 seats, while the NDP would drop to 44 seats. The poll suggests the NDP’s loss of fortune would not necessarily equal a resurgent Bloc Quebecois, with the separatist party winning only six seats. Elizabeth May would retain her seat for the Greens.

While Trudeau is often portrayed as the Gen-X candidate who might finally tap into Canada’s apathetic young voters, the survey suggests his famous name actually polls stronger with older Canadians.

Only 27% of Canadians aged 18 to 34 would vote for a Trudeau-led Liberal party, the same percentage that would vote Tory. The NDP, at 34%, remain young Canada’s choice.

But Trudeau performs quite strongly with middle-aged Canadians, winning decisively in all age groups over 45.

A Trudeau-led Liberal party also holds a decisive edge in female voters, taking 42% of their vote, compared to 26% for the Conservatives and 25% for the NDP.

Male voters each give the Tories and the Trudeau Liberals 35% support. The NDP trails behind at 21%.

CURRENT SITUATION DIFFERS SHARPLY

Using the current leaders of the Canadian political parties, the poll’s numbers drastically change. With interim leader Bob Rae at the helm, the Liberals drop into a tie with the NDP for second place at 28% support.

The Conservatives stay in the lead with 33% support, but would be reduced to a weak minority of 138 seats.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair continues to see his net favourable ratings decline in the Forum poll, falling to a negative rating for the first time. While Prime Minister Stephen Harper has the highest negative rating overall with Canadians, he also maintains a solid base of 36% approval.