Poll: Democrats still hold a midterm edge, but it's narrower than before

Susan Page and Merdie Nzanga | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — The political landscape still favors the Democrats, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, but not as much as it did a few months ago.

Five months before crucial midterm elections, a sense that the country has gotten back on track and a tick up in President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have lessened the Republicans' sense of impending doom in November, although some analysts warn that the firestorm still unfolding around the treatment of immigrant families at the border could erode recent GOP gains.

The survey was taken from June 13 through 18, as that furor was beginning to build and before Trump signed an executive order Wednesday changing the policy that had separated more than two thousand immigrant children from their parents.

In the poll, the Democratic edge on the generic congressional ballot — that is, on the question of whether you’re likely to vote for an unnamed Democrat or an unnamed Republican — Democrats have an advantage of 6 percentage points, 45 percent-39 percent. In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll taken at the end of February, Democrats had a yawning 15-point edge.

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That said, those surveyed overwhelmingly said they wanted to elect a Congress that mostly stands up to President Trump, rather than mostly cooperates with him, 55 percent to 34 percent. That 21-point margin was only a little narrower than the 26 points four months ago.

Ruth Conley, 71, a retired nurse from Los Angeles who was among those surveyed, wants Democrats to win control of the House and Senate so they can reverse what Trump has done during the first two years of his tenure. “Everything that he screwed up, I’d like to see them unscrew,” she said in a follow-up interview.

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The poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, taken by landline and cell phone, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

With unemployment low and the economy strong, Americans feel more positive about the future. In the new poll, 40 percent said the United States was headed in the right direction; 49 percent said it had gotten off on the wrong track. In February, that judgment was a darker 29 percent-60 percent.

The biggest change in attitude has come among independents. Four months ago, seven in 10 said the country was on the wrong track; now half feel that way.

“Trump's improved job approval has closed the Democratic advantage in the generic congressional ballot test since March," said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center. "It speaks to how fluid, fickle, and influential the small slice of Independent voters will be in November."

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Trump’s rating has been boosted in part by cautious optimism about the summit he held this month with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Now, 43 percent approve of the job he’s doing as president; 51 percent disapprove. Not only was Trump's approval rating lower in February, at 38 percent, but the intensity of feeling against him was stronger then. The percentage who “strongly disapprove” of him has now dipped to 33 percent; the percentage who “strongly approve” has risen to 22 percent — still not glowing ratings, but better than they were.

“There’s so much he has to get done,” said Julie Shirley, 60, of Scottsdale, Arizona, who voted for Trump in 2016. She plans to vote a straight Republican ballot this fall. “I think (Senate Democratic leader) Chuck Schumer needs to go. I think (House Democratic leader) Nancy Pelosi needs to go.”

Meanwhile, Vice President Mike Pence's favorable ratings have significantly improved. Now he has a net positive rating of 3 percentage points, 42 percent favorable-39 percent unfavorable. In February, he had a net negative rating of 10 points, 36 percent-46 percent.

Democrats are optimistic that in November's elections they can gain the 23 seats needed to take control of the House of Representatives, although prospects for winning the Senate are more distant.

Neither political party is viewed particularly favorably, though Republicans fare worse: 36 percent reporting a favorable view, 49 percent an unfavorable one. For the Democratic Party, the favorable-unfavorable rating was 39 percent-47 percent.

“I don’t care which party it is, as long as their attitudes are non-polarized or modern,” says James Marsh, 56, a retired lawyer from Tripp, South Dakota, who is hoping for change. “I think virtually everything needs to be done differently now. I can’t imagine a more dysfunctional body than the American Congress.”

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