A huge part of fantasy is picking up a guy just as he’s about to get hot and before others get him, and dropping guys about to go cold. There’s a couple schools of thought about how you can spot these kinds of changes in form.

The first question you have to find an answer to is “Did their situation change?” This happens when something changes either within the team or for the individual player. Be on the lookout for things like position changes, set piece duty changes, and teammates they either play really well with or really poorly with coming into or out of the starting lineup.

If their situation remained the same, the next question to ask is “Which form is their true form? The recent or the old?” In general, I lean toward the old form being their true form when the situation hasn’t changed. Sample size is important and a recent blip doesn’t mean someone is suddenly good or suddenly bad in fantasy.

Here’s a table that compares the last 10 game weeks PPG to the first 18 game weeks PPG. Games were only counted if they played more than 45 minutes. I’ll talk about a couple of the big movers who are fantasy favorites and give some reasons for why their form has changed and whether to trust the new form or the old.

web_name team_short position_short PPG difference between first 18 weeks and last 10 Minutes weeks 19-28 PPG weeks 19-28 Minutes weeks 1-18 PPG weeks 1-18 Hairston COL DEF 6.2 426 10 397 3.8 Dempsey SEA FWD 4.2909 418 8.2 977 3.9091 Peterson SKC MID 3.7143 628 6 557 2.2857 Acosta DC FWD 3.4167 696 6.5 868 3.0833 Wright-Phillips NY FWD 2.8888 729 8.4444 1517 5.5556 Morales RSL MID 2.6767 797 7.2222 954 4.5455 Watson NE DEF 2.4167 540 6.1667 1052 3.75 Donadel MTL MID 2.3333 479 5 486 2.6667 Molino ORL MID 2.3333 524 8.3333 1300 6 Olave RSL DEF 2.125 540 5.5 671 3.375 Barnetta PHI MID 1.9829 810 6.4444 1120 4.4615 Giovinco TOR FWD 1.8194 776 10.4444 1438 8.625 Kljestan NY MID 1.7941 708 8.5 1399 6.7059 Nocerino ORL MID 1.7917 492 3.6667 619 1.875 Finlay CLB MID 1.7667 487 6.1667 1253 4.4 Oyongo MTL DEF 1.75 677 5.5 1080 3.75 Accam CHI MID 1.7111 450 7.6 791 5.8889 J Taylor POR DEF 1.7 450 5.2 1260 3.5 Fagundez NE MID 1.6667 392 5.6 1200 3.9333 Sam DC MID 1.6346 598 6.25 980 4.6154 Birnbaum DC DEF 1.6111 810 5.7778 1080 4.1667 Knighton NE GKP 1.55 450 4.8 360 3.25 Beltran RSL DEF 1.4732 615 4.2857 1440 2.8125 Powell POR DEF 1.4 694 5 875 3.6 Gruezo DAL MID 1.4 505 4.6667 1249 3.2667 Saied CLB MID 1.3334 492 5.1667 979 3.8333 Alvarez CHI MID 1.2545 378 5.8 855 4.5455 Alex HOU MID 1.2321 720 5.875 1199 4.6429 Cole LA DEF 1.0962 720 4.25 1141 3.1538 dos Santos LA FWD 1.0846 895 7.7 1107 6.6154 Dwyer SKC FWD 1.0417 708 5.875 1598 4.8333 Williams TOR DEF 1.0333 434 5.2 475 4.1667 Miller COL DEF 1 540 4.5 849 3.5 Laba VAN MID 0.9722 675 4.75 1586 3.7778 Delgado TOR MID 0.9545 686 4.5 913 3.5455 Rogers LA DEF 0.9167 360 5.25 810 4.3333 Tierney NE DEF 0.8651 772 5.2222 1227 4.3571 Farrell NE DEF 0.8334 810 4.6667 1620 3.8333 Maund RSL DEF 0.7833 360 4.25 1350 3.4667 Acosta DAL MID 0.7667 540 5.1667 1260 4.4 Kaká ORL MID 0.75 653 8.625 709 7.875 Lletget LA MID 0.7024 579 5.2857 988 4.5833 Gerrard LA MID 0.7 439 7.6 866 6.9 Espinoza SKC MID 0.6992 615 4.8571 1703 4.1579 Meram CLB MID 0.6875 672 6.25 1279 5.5625 Phillips RSL DEF 0.6666 810 5.4444 787 4.7778 Morrow TOR DEF 0.6302 630 5.5714 1438 4.9412 Waston VAN DEF 0.625 720 4.625 1220 4 Nyarko DC MID 0.6111 597 6.5 747 5.8889 Barrios DAL MID 0.6051 582 5.4286 1343 4.8235 Rodriguez HOU DEF 0.6 450 4.6 1260 4 Godoy SJ MID 0.5834 538 5.1667 1048 4.5833 Hernandez NYC DEF 0.5556 426 4 1603 3.4444 Meira CHI DEF 0.5195 630 4.4286 940 3.9091 Perez Garcia ORL MID 0.4889 400 4.6 650 4.1111 Adi POR FWD 0.4853 704 5.25 1417 4.7647 Opara SKC DEF 0.4727 450 5.2 907 4.7273 Davis NY MID 0.4643 589 5.7143 360 5.25 Watts COL DEF 0.4286 360 5 630 4.5714 Zubar NY DEF 0.4156 630 5.1429 931 4.7273 Cocis CHI MID 0.4 418 5.6 873 5.2 Brillant NYC DEF 0.375 720 4.875 1620 4.5 Beitashour TOR DEF 0.375 674 4.75 1438 4.375 Beckerman RSL MID 0.3727 895 4.1 990 3.7273 Goncalves NE DEF 0.3681 810 3.5556 1440 3.1875 Gashi COL FWD 0.3333 608 6 964 5.6667 Alston ORL DEF 0.3333 810 2.4444 777 2.1111 Olum SKC MID 0.3167 450 4.4 1003 4.0833 Figueroa DAL DEF 0.2889 450 4.4 1620 4.1111 Amarikwa SJ FWD 0.2857 455 4 1178 3.7143 Dawkins SJ MID 0.2857 613 4.7143 1198 4.4286 Van Damme LA DEF 0.2833 703 4.75 1326 4.4667 Glad RSL DEF 0.2679 720 4.625 1260 4.3571 Rosenberry PHI DEF 0.2579 900 4.1 1710 3.8421 Chara POR MID 0.254 608 4.1429 1620 3.8889 Rowe NE MID 0.2529 866 4.9 1516 4.6471 Morris SEA FWD 0.2279 710 4.875 1444 4.6471 Roldan SEA MID 0.2136 799 4.4444 1115 4.2308 Ciman MTL DEF 0.1964 720 4.625 1223 4.4286 Pontius PHI MID 0.1889 849 5.3 1350 5.1111 Trapp CLB MID 0.1667 540 4.1667 1602 4 Harvey VAN DEF 0.1579 360 4 1710 3.8421 Melano POR FWD 0.1579 566 4 1565 3.8421 Bendik ORL GKP 0.1556 900 4.1 1620 3.9444 Duvall NY DEF 0.1 450 4.4 888 4.3 Bingham SJ GKP 0.0833 720 4.75 1620 4.6667 Mulholland RSL MID 0.0682 644 4.25 866 4.1818 Shuttleworth NE GKP 0.0667 450 4.2 1350 4.1333 Urruti DAL FWD 0.0625 565 5 1387 4.9375 Wingert RSL DEF 0.0462 399 2.2 1025 2.1538 Polster CHI MID 0.0417 664 4.375 789 4.3333 Osorio TOR MID 0.0277 795 4.4444 1038 4.4167 Movsisyan RSL FWD 0 420 5 1473 5 McNamara NYC MID -0.0179 569 4.8571 1194 4.875 Camara MTL DEF -0.0455 900 4.5 966 4.5455 Bernardez SJ DEF -0.0694 768 4.5556 1426 4.625 Jewsbury POR MID -0.0857 594 3.7143 450 3.8 Mateos ORL DEF -0.0972 709 3.125 810 3.2222 Plata RSL FWD -0.1286 874 6.3 1218 6.4286 Tribbett PHI DEF -0.1333 450 4.2 810 4.3333 Fabinho PHI DEF -0.1349 810 4.2222 1209 4.3571 Woodberry NE DEF -0.1429 630 3.8571 962 4 Rowe LA GKP -0.1438 804 5.4444 1511 5.5882 Caldwell NE MID -0.1961 715 3.3333 1402 3.5294 Larin ORL FWD -0.2222 780 5.7778 1150 6 DeLeon DC MID -0.2353 525 3 1491 3.2353 Tchani CLB MID -0.2381 625 4.4286 796 4.6667 Wynne SJ DEF -0.2605 630 3.8571 1497 4.1176 Parkhurst CLB DEF -0.2777 794 3.6667 1609 3.9444 Lawrence NY DEF -0.3 450 2.8 856 3.1 Zimmerman DAL DEF -0.3015 630 5.1429 1620 5.4444 Parker VAN DEF -0.3158 540 3 1710 3.3158 Carrasco ORL MID -0.3333 764 3.5556 787 3.8889 Koffie NE MID -0.3636 483 4 893 4.3636 Maidana HOU MID -0.3714 531 4.4286 698 4.8 Yaro PHI DEF -0.375 360 4.5 716 4.875 Burch COL DEF -0.3889 810 4.4444 1076 4.8333 B Garcia HOU MID -0.4 769 5 826 5.4 Harris DAL DEF -0.4143 608 4.2857 872 4.7 Jeffrey DC MID -0.4286 375 3 604 3.4286 Iraola NYC DEF -0.4404 561 4.1429 1080 4.5833 Pirlo NYC MID -0.4444 772 5 1557 5.4444 Toia MTL DEF -0.4524 540 3.8333 630 4.2857 Hines ORL DEF -0.4615 531 4 1170 4.4615 Rimando RSL GKP -0.4667 900 4.2 1350 4.6667 Kemp DC DEF -0.4722 720 4.25 1620 4.7222 Ousted VAN GKP -0.4778 810 4.2222 1800 4.7 S Williams HOU DEF -0.4889 805 2.1111 434 2.6 Nagbe POR MID -0.5 720 5 1245 5.5 Saunders NYC GKP -0.5389 810 4.1111 1800 4.65 Marshall SEA DEF -0.5417 720 4.125 1310 4.6667 Marquez PHI DEF -0.5444 900 3.4 1620 3.9444 Powers COL MID -0.5556 773 4.1111 783 4.6667 Sarvas DC MID -0.5625 672 4.875 1399 5.4375 Clark HOU MID -0.6111 496 3.6667 1579 4.2778 Ivanschitz SEA MID -0.6429 525 4.2857 1107 4.9286 Ceren ORL MID -0.6666 540 3.1667 990 3.8333 Clark CLB GKP -0.6667 810 4 1620 4.6667 Blake PHI GKP -0.6667 810 4.2222 1620 4.8889 Collin NY DEF -0.6667 750 4.1111 809 4.7778 Muyl NY MID -0.675 640 3.125 391 3.8 Villa NYC FWD -0.6776 692 6.375 1710 7.0526 Lampard NYC MID -0.6889 802 7.1111 369 7.8 Creavalle PHI MID -0.7 619 4 852 4.7 Boateng LA FWD -0.7083 618 4.125 488 4.8333 de Jong LA MID -0.75 497 3.5 1060 4.25 Robles NY GKP -0.7667 810 4.3333 1800 5.1 Gleeson POR GKP -0.7692 810 4 1170 4.7692 Feilhaber SKC MID -0.7917 706 5.875 1323 6.6667 Quintero SJ MID -0.8222 707 4.1111 1135 4.9333 Steres LA DEF -0.8466 947 4.0909 1440 4.9375 Felipe NY MID -0.8596 810 4.6667 1634 5.5263 Willis HOU GKP -0.8889 810 4.2222 791 5.1111 Solignac CHI FWD -0.9167 536 3.5 1027 4.4167 Jacobson VAN MID -0.9167 495 3 1049 3.9167 Cronin COL MID -1 800 3.4444 1611 4.4444 Mears SEA DEF -1 720 2.875 1440 3.875 Alashe SJ MID -1 531 2.6667 1282 3.6667 Abdul-Salaam SKC DEF -1 611 3.1429 1235 4.1429 Bradley TOR MID -1 540 5 1080 6 Vincent CHI DEF -1 708 3 990 4 Johnson CHI GKP -1 720 3.875 720 4.875 Bush MTL GKP -1 770 3.1111 1620 4.1111 Anibaba HOU DEF -1.0318 810 3.1111 1248 4.1429 Boden ORL DEF -1.0635 810 3.2222 550 4.2857 Horst HOU DEF -1.0714 589 3.4286 1440 4.5 Cabrera MTL DEF -1.0833 450 4 1080 5.0833 Piatti MTL MID -1.1046 807 6.7778 1530 7.8824 Franklin DC DEF -1.1111 783 3.3333 1620 4.4444 Zizzo NY DEF -1.125 377 3 1436 4.125 Warner HOU MID -1.1587 743 2.5556 614 3.7143 Kappelhof CHI DEF -1.1875 785 3 1440 4.1875 Kudo VAN FWD -1.2 361 3 378 4.2 Mustivar SKC MID -1.2167 445 3.2 1070 4.4167 Boswell DC DEF -1.25 720 3.25 1440 4.5 Afful CLB DEF -1.25 686 4 1412 5.25 Harrison NYC MID -1.2619 598 4.5714 511 5.8333 Campbell CHI DEF -1.2847 766 3.7778 1440 5.0625 Moor TOR DEF -1.3125 900 4.5 1440 5.8125 Ridgewell POR DEF -1.3334 540 2.8333 1080 4.1667 Bunbury NE MID -1.3718 444 2.1667 997 3.5385 Seitz DAL GKP -1.4107 630 3.7143 1440 5.125 Alonso SEA MID -1.4167 720 5.25 1591 6.6667 Bolaños VAN MID -1.4286 617 4.5714 1102 6 Martinez RSL FWD -1.4429 853 4.2 1214 5.6429 Valeri POR MID -1.4583 805 6.6667 1402 8.125 DeLaGarza LA DEF -1.4583 720 2.875 1070 4.3333 Grella NY MID -1.4722 657 3.75 1469 5.2222 Sjoberg COL DEF -1.4931 791 4.4444 1440 5.9375 Ilsinho PHI MID -1.5 391 3 563 4.5 Wondolowski SJ FWD -1.6032 806 4.1111 1260 5.7143 K. Kamara NE FWD -1.625 709 3.375 1509 5 Hollingshead DAL MID -1.6462 409 3.2 1155 4.8462 Frei SEA GKP -1.719 810 3.2222 1530 4.9412 Burling COL DEF -1.8 450 3.8 874 5.6 Evans SEA DEF -1.8333 720 3.5 1074 5.3333 Larentowicz LA MID -1.881 552 3.2857 511 5.1667 Medranda SKC MID -1.8975 487 3.3333 1110 5.2308 Hedges DAL DEF -1.9423 720 3.75 1163 5.6923 K Doyle COL FWD -1.9615 720 2.5 1170 4.4615 Sapong PHI FWD -2.0222 787 3.1111 1313 5.1333 Allen NYC DEF -2.0909 405 4 967 6.0909 Díaz DAL MID -2.0989 612 6.2857 1111 8.3846 Barnes HOU FWD -2.2424 499 2.6667 982 4.9091 Zardes LA FWD -2.25 494 3.8333 1080 6.0833 Mena NYC DEF -2.4167 512 3.8333 360 6.25 Nguyen NE MID -2.4444 873 4 1578 6.4444 Hamid DC GKP -2.6666 810 3.6667 540 6.3333 Zavaleta TOR DEF -2.8 450 3.4 447 6.2 O. Kamara CLB FWD -2.875 689 5.25 720 8.125 Drogba MTL FWD -2.875 657 5 699 7.875 Jones SEA DEF -2.9083 631 1.625 1307 4.5333 Keane LA FWD -3.5 450 3 675 6.5 Morales VAN MID -3.6667 671 3.75 997 7.4167

Hairston: starting playing as a winger instead of defender. If he can get his starting spot back after injury, I think he lands somewhere between the new and old form.

Acosta: Patrick Mullins changed the dynamic of this team. I think this is Acosta’s new standard.

BWP: Situation is the same. But his early season woes were well documented and we predicted he’d get out of the rut based on his expected goals. His true output is slightly lower than current, but not nearly as bad as the start of the season.

Giovinco: He’s better with Jozy on the field, despite what Mr. Guy Sanchez says. Plus they’ve had more home games in the second period because of the massive away trip TFC had to start the season. Now out with injury, but I think his form will hold.

Kljestan: exact same as BWP.

Finlay: This one is hard to call as I didn’t believe last year’s Finlay was the true Finlay, and his recent form isn’t even up to those standards. I think his early season was a blip and his last 10 are closer to what we can expect.

Accam: New forward in de Leeuw helps this team’s spacing in attack. I think the recent Accam is the real Accam.

Dos Santos: It has recently been pointed out by several people that his production suffers greatly with Keane on the field. And Keane is about to come back on the field. I think he moves back toward his first-period form.

P.Morales: His PKs dried up and so did his points, just as predicted.

Keane: Age looks like it is finally catching up to him as he battles more injuries. I think his form moving forward lands somewhere between 3 and 6.5 PPG. Losing Zardes hurts Keane massively as he has to deal with center backs more.

Drogba: I think the injuries are taking their toll recently but I don’t expect him to remain this poor.

Ola Kamara: During his ridiculous hot streak earlier this season, he wasn’t outperforming expected goals. Now he’s under performing and I think that is just a temporary blip and he’ll be scoring again soon.

Nguyen: New England have suddenly come to life in attack with the formation shift, but I think it is at the expense of Nguyen and I don’t expect much from him moving forward.

Diaz: This one surprised me to see him fall so far. Losing Castillo means defenses can shift easier to cover Diaz. I think he gets a minor bump over recent form.

Sapong: I honestly don’t follow the Union enough to know if anything has changed for him… sorry.

Valeri: Jewsbury takes set pieces away from Valeri, meaning fewer bonus points. Once Jewsbury gets booted to the bench, Valeri will be back.

Piatti: I think this is closer to what we can expect from Piatti. His expected goals have been way lower than his actual goals all season.

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