The number of cases could drop but then rise again

A new study predicts that coronavirus infections could drop over the summer but then rise again next winter.

Researchers looked at what will happen if the new coronavirus causing Covid-19 acts in the same way as other coronaviruses, which have lower transmission rates during the warmer months.

In a paper which is currently undergoing peer review, ‘Potential Impact of Seasonal Forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic’, researchers warn that we shouldn’t be complacent if the number of cases start to reduce.

Their model showed that a ‘small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere’ would be followed by ‘a larger peak in winter 2020-21’.


An NHS sign points towards a Coronavirus testing pod, as an ambulance arrives at the A&E Department of Kings College Hospital in Camberwell, south London (Picture: Getty)

Dr Emma Hodcroft, who is a co-author of the paper, told Sky News it was ‘hard to have exact numbers’ but said the model was ‘not an unreasonable scenario’.



She said that even though the exact numbers may differ, the main point is that ‘there could be substantially more cases if there is a seasonal affect’.

Scientists do not know for sure how the changing seasons will affect the new coronavirus, so have had to make assumptions based on how similar viruses behave.

The model suggests Covid-19 could become another disease we have to contend with every winter, much like flu.

The outbreak has now been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (Picture: Rex)

It comes as the Department of Health said 456 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK as of 9am on Wednesday, up from 373 at the same point on Tuesday, while the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic.

Some 460 people have now tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, after four new cases were confirmed in Wales.

This is the largest day on day jump in cases, up from 373 cases on Tuesday – more than doubling in just four days.

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UK government's coronavirus action plan Boris Johnson has revealed the government's battle plan to tackle coronavirus in the UK. The key points from the announcement, made on 3 March, are: - If police lose 'significant staff' numbers to illness, they would 'concentrate 'on responding to serious crimes and maintaining public order'.

- In a 'stretching scenario', it is possible that up to one fifth of employees may be absent from work during peak weeks.

- Everyone will face increased pressures at work, as well as potentially their own illness and caring responsibilities. Supporting staff welfare 'will be critical' for businesses. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video - The UK has stockpiles of medicines for the NHS, plus protective clothing and equipment for medical staff.

- The public can help delay the spread of the virus by washing hands with soap regularly, not spreading misinformation and relying on trusted sources. They should also ensure family vaccines are up to date and check on family, friends and neighbours. They should also check Foreign Office advice before travelling abroad and be understanding of the pressures the health service is under.

- The public will be asked to accept that 'the advice for managing Covid-19 for most people will be self-isolation at home and simple over the counter medicines'.

- If coronavirus becomes established, there will be a focus on essential services and helping those 'most at risk to access the right treatment'.

- During the mitigation phase, when the virus is much more widespread, 'pressures on services and wider society may become significant and clearly noticeable'.

- The Ministry of Defence will provide support as needed, including to essential services.

- There will be increased Government communication with Parliament, the public and the media if the virus becomes more widespread.

- All Government departments to have a lead person for coronavirus. MORE: Coronavirus UK: The answers to your top questions about Covid-19 – from the current death toll to its symptoms To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video - If the virus takes hold, social distancing strategies could include school closures, encouraging greater home working, reducing the number of large scale gatherings and closing other educational settings.

- It is possible that an outbreak or pandemic of Covid-19 could come in multiple waves.

- Non-urgent operations and other procedures could be cancelled, and hospital discharges monitored to free-up beds, with appropriate care in people's homes.

- Hospital worker shifts could be altered and leavers or retirees called 'back to duty'.

- Measures exist to help businesses with short-term cash flow problems.

- There is a distribution strategy for sending out key medicines and equipment to NHS and social care.

- This strain of coronavirus is new and people have a lack of immunity to it, meaning 'Covid-19 has the potential to spread extensively'.

- Everyone is susceptible to catching the disease and thus it is 'more likely than not that the UK will be significantly affected'.

- There could be an 'increase in deaths arising from the outbreak, particularly among vulnerable and elderly groups'.

- While most people will suffer mild to moderate symptoms, similar to seasonal flu, some will need hospital care due to pneumonia developing.

- Young children can become infected and 'suffer severe illness', but overall the illness is less common in the under-20s.