Rachel Notley may not flaunt the swaggering charisma of a Trudeau, but as she demonstrated in this week’s leaders’ debate, she sure wins on character. She conveys as well, a deep determination to fight for a politics of values, as she laced her opponent over and over for his wobbly handling of some very insalubrious candidates. Putting her opponent’s name in the same sentence as charisma or values-driven leadership increasingly produces sardonic guffaws.

Debates rarely turn on policy differences, except when a candidate drops an unintentional clanger: Gerald Ford “liberating” Poland, John Turner claiming “they made me do it,” about a barrel of patronage gifts. Notley stuck to a clear political message track, reminding voters of her child care, health and education pledges.

Her opponent, United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney, often sounded like an overconfident policy wonk angrily spouting stats in a student union debate. Political insiders score debates on direct hits and good recoveries. Real voters look for clues as to character: “Is this a leader who will fight for me and my family?”

The two leaders had a clear mission. For Notley it was to make the ballot question about character, for her opponent it was to make it about jobs. Each gave it their all, but each probably only solidified their persuadables.

Notley did deliver the zinger of the night, however. Slashing her opponent on his leadership campaign’s dubious tactics, now under RCMP investigation. She asked if he “would cheat his own party members to have a chance at running to be premier, what is he going to do to the people of this province in order to keep it?”

In many respects it was a debate between an old-fashioned street-fighting male politician and an unflappable professional woman.

A fascinating study of gender differences among leaders, asks “Why do so many incompetent men become leaders? (and how to fix it).” A respected organizational psychologist, Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, says one factor ranks higher than most: we are too easily deceived into confusing confidence for competence.

A tough, swaggering leader is assumed to be a competent leader. No prizes for guessing who wins the overconfidence stakes — men overestimate their abilities twice as often as women. Narcissism, overconfidence’s first cousin, is 40 per cent more likely among men.

Her campaign strategists knew from the start that Notley wins the likability, authenticity stakes by a country mile. They have been trying to persuade voters that she has been an indomitable fighter, managing through the greatest economic challenge the province has seen since the Depression; that she led a government true to its values, especially on the jobs versus climate divide.

Her opponent would have voters believe he could have forced the price of oil higher, and single-handedly overruled Ottawa and the courts to get a pipeline built. Bizarrely, he claimed he would stage a referendum to kill Canada’s equalization formula. A silly claim: Equalization is a federal statute embedded in the Constitution.

In a way, the Alberta campaign has been a foretaste of the next federal election, now only six months away. The right has campaigned loudly on aiding the oil and gas sector with tax cuts and fighting Ottawa elites, more quietly on the usual populist dog whistles about race, religion and sexual orientation.

Notley’s agenda included progressives’ old favourites: child care, education, health care, a transition to a more sustainable economy, all under an umbrella of optimism about Alberta’s recovery. Among the differences federally will be the Liberals and the NDP fighting for a progressive agenda while trashing each other over credibility.

No matter who is the next premier, Andrew Scheer would be wise to park the dog whistles. They will not find a wide appeal to voters in B.C., Ontario and Quebec. Singh and Trudeau will pound Scheer’s campaign about the tactic — just as happened to his provincial cousin.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

If Notley prevails, it will be seen as, in part, a vindication of her pushback on her opponent’s unwillingness to smack down some of the anti-immigrant, anti-LGBTQ, and anti-Muslim whispers from members of his gang.

Last week’s debate clearly highlighted the importance of competence over confidence, character over policy, and the difference between being a tough fighter and merely an offensive one. We will know soon if an appeal to Alberta’s “better angels” can trump fear and anger.

Robin V. Sears is a principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group and was an NDP strategist for 20 years. He is a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @robinvsears

Read more about: