

come from behind victory?

Is Rick Santorum about to snag acome from behind victory?

Paul: 20 (24)

Romney: 19 (20)

Santorum: 18 (10)

Gingrich: 14 (13)

Perry: 10 (10)

Bachmann: 8 (11)

Huntsman: 4 (4)

Roemer: 2 (2)

Other: 4 (5)



Public Policy Polling ( PDF ). December 31, 2011-January 1, 2012. Likely Iowa Republican caucus voters. ±2.7%. (Dec 26-27 results .)

The good news for Rick Santorum is that he's surging. The very good news for Rick Santorum is that he's dominating late deciders—29 percent of those who have decided in last week are going for him, compared to 17 percent for Mitt Romney and 13 percent for Ron Paul. And the excellent news is that one in four voters still say they are open to changing their mind: always good news for a candidate who is surging but has not yet obtained the lead.

Santorum is leading with the usual suspects: he leads among tea party Republicans and conservatives. Apparently Mitt Romney's say-anything campaign isn't all that appealing to them and they dislike Ron Paul's refusal to go to war with Iran because it wants a nuke.

It's anybody's guess who will win Iowa, but it certainly looks like Santorum, Romney, and Paul are the only three candidates seriously in the running. And while Romney may yet still win, he has to be worried about his nightmare scenario: coming in third place in a race he was supposed to win—and the emergence of a single Not Romney who has done more than lead a poll, but has actually won an election.

This is also very good for Santorum:

Santorum is 2nd choice of Bachmann, Newt, and Perry's voters. Interesting to see how much ship jumping there is in last 2 days

Poll 4398 votes Show Results Who do you think will win Iowa? Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Ron Paul 4398 votes Vote Now! Who do you think will win Iowa? Mitt Romney 1300 votes Rick Santorum 1551 votes Ron Paul 1546 votes

I'll bet a lot.