LAKE FOREST, Ill. -- The biggest question looming over the Chicago Bears in the next two months is the fate of head coach John Fox.

“I’d say it’s an incomplete grade on Fox,” ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen said. “You can’t say that he’s guaranteed to be back by any means because he hasn’t proved that his football team is capable of competing every week during his tenure in Chicago.”

Although his contract runs through the 2018 season, Fox may have just a half a season left to convince Bears general manager Ryan Pace and ownership that he’s still the right man for the job.

The arguments to keep or fire Fox can be broken down into three areas: (1) Fox’s accomplishments -- or lack thereof -- since the Bears hired him on Jan. 15, 2016, (2) what’s left for the Bears to accomplish in 2017, and (3) what Fox’s return means for 2018 and beyond.

12-28

One of Fox’s favorite catchphrases is to call the NFL “a performance-based business.”

In that context, Fox’s job performance is incredibly poor.

“The NFL is the business of winning, right?” Bowen said. “That’s what we judge head coaches on: the ability to win and the ability to compete for playoff spots and win playoff games.”

The success Fox sustained in Carolina and Denver -- seven combined postseason berths and a pair of Super Bowl runner-ups -- didn’t carry over to Chicago.

The 62-year-old has the worst win percentage (.300) of any NFL head coach through at least 40 games (with the same team) since 2015. The next closest in that span is Baltimore’s John Harbaugh at 17-24 (.415).

Fox’s 12-28-0 record ties him with Jim Dooley for the second-worst record by a Bears coach through their first 40 games. They are just ahead of Abe Gibron, who went 11-28-1 in his first 40 games with Chicago, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

There have been 221 head coaches in the Super Bowl era to last 40 games or more with the same team. Only 13 coaches had a worse record than Fox through 40 games; seven matched Fox in starting 12-28-0, per ESPN Stats & Information.

Fox deserves a certain degree of leeway because he inherited a poor roster from former general manager Phil Emery/coach Marc Trestman, but the roster has since improved with the arrivals of running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd, center Cody Whitehair and safety Eddie Jackson.

On top of that, the Bears have suffered a staggering number of injuries, but Fox is the one ultimately responsible for implementing the team's strength and conditioning/sports science/nutritional programs.

For whatever reason, John Fox's success in Carolina and Denver hasn't carried over to Chicago. AP Photo/Butch Dill

The arrow is starting to point up

Fox’s best chance to save his job is to finish strong in 2017.

“What I always look at with head coaches -- doesn’t matter if you’re talking about Friday night lights in high school or the professional game -- is the development of the football team and if the arrow is pointing up,” Bowen said.

The past couple of weeks have been refreshing at Halas Hall.

The Bears experienced a mini-resurgence with October wins over Baltimore and Carolina after Fox replaced quarterback Mike Glennon -- one of Chicago’s worst free-agent signings in team history -- with second overall pick Mitchell Trubisky.

Chicago’s offense still struggles to score points (27th in the league) with Trubisky, but the defense is playing inspired football.

“When I turn on the tape I see one of the fastest defenses in the NFL,” Bowen said. “They are flying to the football, making plays on the football, pressuring the quarterback and tackling better. You could say this is because of [defensive coordinator] Vic Fangio, but Vic works for John Fox. It’s still the head coach's team. Vic deserves a ton of credit for what he’s done for this defense and how he’s developed some of these young players. If the players don’t respond to the head coach, none of this happens.”

There isn’t a single Pro Bowler on Fangio’s defense, but the Bears have forced eight turnovers and scored three defensive touchdowns in their past three games.

“That shows me the arrow is starting to point up for John Fox,” Bowen said. “Is he for sure coming back? No. But that arrow has to continue to point up for him to come back and sell to management that he has control of the football team and he’s doing the proper things to allow the Bears to build a winning culture.”

There’s a real opportunity to make up ground in the second half.

Fox’s team is favored on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers -- minus Aaron Rodgers -- for the first time since 2008. Winnable games also appear later on the schedule against San Francisco (0-9), Cincinnati (3-5) and Cleveland (0-8).

“Let’s say the Bears go 5-3 in the second half and finish 8-8,” former Bears receiver and ESPN 1000 radio host Tom Waddle said. “That gives you the luxury of taking a bigger-picture view of Fox’s first two years.”

Explained Waddle: “In 2015, Fox and the staff inherited a mess. I think we all agree that was the case. They also inherited a quarterback [Jay Cutler] they were stuck with. Jay wasn’t going anywhere because of that contract. The Bears started off 0-3 that year but no one really knew anybody. It was a total feeling-out process for the entire building. After that, the Bears went 6-7 over the final 13 games and were really competitive in losses.

“The next year, 2016, the Bears were still stuck with Cutler, had to play three different quarterbacks and had 18 guys on injured reserve. The season was terrible but some of the reasons were out of the coaches’ control. Obviously, the Bears have to have a good second half to make any of these arguments. If the Bears aren’t good over the last eight games, the fate of the coaching staff is a fait accompli.”

Lame duck

NFL coaches detest lame-duck years. And for good reason.

“No coach wants to be in that situation,” Bowen said. “As a head coach, you want the guys in the locker room to know that you are in total control. They need to know that you’re not going anywhere. You have to tell them, 'This is my team and if you don’t follow my rules I’m going to get you out of here.'

“You can’t put your players in the position to worry about who their next coach is going to be. You don’t want that stuff. You can’t build like that. You never want that mentality inside your locker room.”

The Bears may be forced to commit to Fox past 2018 in order to bring him back.

It’s easy to say the Bears simply can demand Fox honor the last year of his contract, but that’s not how football usually works. What’s the point of keeping a coach around who doesn’t want to be there?

Fox doesn’t say much publicly, so perhaps he’d be OK with the lame-duck designation. But most coaches are not, which is why Fox’s contractual status is important to consider in this equation.

“If the Bears are convinced at the end of the season that they’ve done the things necessary to build a solid base, then you have to extend him,” Bowen said. “You have to make that decision now.”

The Bears probably aren’t ready to make their final decision -- yet.

But eight weeks from now, Pace should have everything he needs to determine where the franchise is headed -- with or without Fox.