This tier is a bit like Russian Roulette – you’re snapping only a fraction of options into the chamber to see which is going to keep you safe and which one will blast your fantasy brains into the dark abyss. I’m going with 4 surfers who I think will score consistently, yet still have a chance at winning as well. These guys are – Kolohe, Adriano, Conner Coffin and Wade Carmichael.

Granted, Wade is unproven here at the CT level, but his style suits J-Bay crazy well and he went mad in Brazil to show what kind of destruction he can reap when on a roll. He’s almost like Conner Coffin, if Conner had a beard and rode for a brand only found in thrift stores the world over.

Conner – are you kidding? The guy is made for right-hand points like this. He lost in a re-surf against Jordy in round 5 last year, but was throwing 9s like they were confetti in earlier rounds. He’ll be keen to go further this year and cement J Bay as one of his pet events on tour.

Adriano. This little nugget hasn’t been having the best year to date, but he’s like the Terminator – even if he’s shot to pieces he just keeps coming at you. De Souza won J Bay the year it was a QS a few years back and has a good run of results in the past here too. I’m looking forward to see the working man’s workhorse get back on top.

Kolohe. He’s yet to crack a win on tour, but my gut tells me it’s going to come really, really soon. He doesn’t have a solid history contest history at J Bay, but his freesurfing out there is on par with some of the best, so I’m hoping he comes alive and lives up to his potential here. One I’d maybe swap out if the jitters got the better of me.

The potential darkhorse I’d also consider is Frederico Morais. He got second last year at J Bay on his first ever attempt, so could be a great inclusion. The judges don’t seem to be loving his approach as much this year though, so it will be interesting to see where they place his solid, yet often predictable, attack this time around. The popular pick I’m ditching? Jeremy Flores. The guy should be a walk up start at J Bay, but a look into his history at this place shows a terrible series of very early exits. Not in my team for that reason alone.