Most Victorians know someone who has sat on the waiting list for elective surgery, such as for a broken hip or tonsillitis, for too long.

The bad news is the list is getting longer.

Paul James's son, Ethan, was diagnosed with leukaemia when he was 16 months old.

He's now 16 and dealing with ongoing sinus complications after a bone marrow transplant.

In August, he was given a "semi-urgent" referral to see an ear, nose and throat specialist, but was told the waiting time was at least four years.

"Four years is an inordinate amount of time to wait — it's just too long," he said.

Ethan has had difficulty accessing treatment for sinus complications following a bone marrow transplant. ( Supplied )

And it is set to get worse.

Projections from the Department of Health show the number of people waiting for elective surgery is increasing.

At Northern Health, the number of people waiting is set to jump by 98 per cent.

The number will rise by 79 per cent at St Vincent's Hospital and 33 per cent at the Royal Children's Hospital.

Why?

Funding

The Australian Medical Association's Victorian president Julian Rait said the data showed an urgent need for more funding from both state and federal governments.

"Doctors and nurses generally are getting sick and tired of being asked to deliver more with less funding," Professor Rait said.

But that is only part of the picture.

Flu season

Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said this year's record flu season was a factor.

"That has put a lot of pressure on our emergency departments so it's to be expected that they would prioritise emergency department patients over elective surgery or other patients," she said.

But Ms Mikakos said the average waiting time for the most serious elective surgeries in Victoria was 26 days, the best it had ever been.

Private health

Associate Professor Anthony Scott, a health economist at the University of Melbourne, said it was hard to determine the causes of the waiting list problem.

"I don't think it's a crisis, I think it's a long-standing issue with small changes over time," he said.

He said public funding and the availability of doctors were key factors, but the private system also played a role.

"There's been a slight fall in demand for private health care, because of higher out-of-pocket costs, so that means in some areas people have been choosing to go to the public system rather than the private health system.

"But the trends we're seeing are quite long term, so it's hard to determine the causes."

The Department of Health is projecting further increases in waiting times in Victoria. ( Pixabay.com )

A growing and ageing population

Victoria's population is growing at more than 2 per cent a year — the fastest of any state or territory.

Professor Scott said that was a factor in waiting list demand.

"People often talk of health system sustainability and how can we keep the system going, but again, that's often a short-term political issue," he said.

"We're getting older but we're also getting healthier when we're older, but there is more chronic disease so the disease pattern is changing."

Not enough GPs

Associate Professor Scott said, for the most part, people with chronic diseases were better treated by GPs than surgery.

"The number of specialists is increasing much faster than the number of GPs and we really need more GPs," he said.

Paradox of too much care

It might seem like a good thing to diagnose medical problems, but Professor Scott said it could end up contributing to longer waiting lists.

"There are some very good screening programs available," he said.

"But there's been questions raised that whether these screening programs are causing more harm than good because they find things that wouldn't have affected you, but because you've found it you think you have to do something about it."

Sorry, this audio has expired ABC Radio Melbourne's Virginia Trioli interviews Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos on waiting lists.

What's the answer?

Paul James decided not to wait four years and made an appointment with a private specialist for his son, Ethan.

"He faxed the referral through and magically we've got an appointment on Monday," he said.

For the rest of the system, unsurprisingly, there is no quick fix.

Throwing more money at the problem seems like a good idea, but it has to go to the right places to be effective.

Professor Scott said he would start by analysing the interaction between the public and private systems.

"We really don't know how they affect one another and how people make choices between them," he said.