If they take place, European elections in Britain would ideally serve three complementary purposes. The first would be to widen the national debate about Britain’s relations with Europe. The second would be to ensure the electoral argument has a pro-European outcome. The third would be to send a clear pro-European message from British voters to the EU. All this is not going as well for the pro-European side as it should be.

The political context for EU elections remains healthy for pro-Europeans. Brexit has proved far more difficult than leavers originally claimed. Leavers are very deeply divided. The problems have contributed to some public rethinking. Since Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016, public opinion has slowly but steadily shifted towards remaining. The current poll of polls on the issue shows a 54%-46% remain lead. A ComRes poll this week has the gap at 58%-42%.

Translating that strength into a clear European election outcome is proving tough. It is made tougher by the extremely tight timetable and by the uncertainty about whether the elections will take place. The central problem is not the issue of Europe as much as the political system. Elections are contests between candidates representing parties with extensive programmes. Even a massive single issue like Brexit is refracted through the party system. But the parties are proving to be too divided, too tribal, too small and too unimaginative to do the job the country badly needs.

The problem is not confined to pro-Europeans, for there are divisions on both sides. Polling suggesting that Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party would win most votes has been widely reported this week. That would be a striking result for a new party. It would trigger further internal chaos for the Tories. Most seriously of all, however, it would make it harder to persuade the EU that a British change of heart was likely. But it would be wise not to overreact. The most recent poll of this kind has the Brexit party on 23%, the Conservatives on 17% and Ukip on 6%. That all adds up to 46%, which is what leave is scoring in the poll of polls on Brexit voting intention.

For those who want Britain to remain, the situation on the pro-European side is of much greater concern. A large difficulty is the Labour party, whose membership and voters are mostly pro-remain but whose leadership is ambiguous. Labour’s studied ambivalence has at times been a smart strategy. But Labour now stands at only 22% in the same poll. This harms the party itself as well as the wider European cause. Both would benefit from a clearer pro-European stance, especially on a second referendum.

All this has helped to boost putative support for the smaller pro-European parties in England – Greens, Liberal Democrats and Change UK – and for nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales. But tribal instincts are strong in all these parties too. These have prevented any form of electoral understanding between them. This means that, even in the proportional representation system used by the UK in EU elections, the pro-European cause sounds a discordant note and pro-European chances are diminished.

It is not too late to do better. Labour can take a bolder stance. They and the smaller parties can cooperate to ensure the optimal electoral outcome. A pro-European declaration from civil society across the UK to which all pro-European parties can sign up should be a priority. Above all, it is time to recognise that Britain has reached a moment in its journey from 2016 which must be seized. If not now, when?