The coming Assembly elections in Karnataka will be a ‘do or die’ battle for the incumbent Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and former chief ministers BS Yeddyurappa and HD Kumaraswamy. Yedyurappa, the president of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the state, is once again the party’s CM face. Kumaraswamy, son of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, who founded the Janata Dal (Secular), is the JD(S)’s CM face.

The credibility of not just the state but also the central leadership of both BJP and Congress would be affected by the results in Karnataka, a crucial state election in the run up to next Lok Sabha polls.

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has so far been able to withstand the onslaught by the BJP’s top campaigning duo of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi, by showcasing his pro-poor ‘Bhagya’ schemes (bhagya means fortune or wealth in Kannada) and scam-less governance on one hand. Siddaramaiah has also successfully established his authority within the party in the state and gained the confidence of Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

Siddaramaiah’s ‘Indira Canteens’, in line with the AIAMDK government’s ‘Amma Canteens’ in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, have made a positive impact among poor, labour and working sector people in urban areas in the state.

On the other hand, though, the CM faced stiff opposition for developing urban infrastructure, especially in Bangalore he has been able to ward it off by providing housing infrastructure to the poor, provision of drinking water, sanitation as well as roads in urban areas of the state.

The Congress government has been successful in projecting itself as pro-farmer by giving various incentives to them—subsidies and support prices to farmers in Horticulture and Dairy sectors have earned immense good will.

The initiatives taken by major and minor irrigation departments for providing water to the parched regions of South Interior as well as North Interior Karnataka regions and effectively handling the politically sensitive water sharing issue whether within the state or Interstate and stealing the steam off from opposition parties has also made the Congress vote bank strong.

The Congress Government under his leadership has been able to give stable and fair governance without any scams or allegations unlike the previous BJP Government which had three Chief Ministers in its five year rule and many of its ministers and MLA’s including Chief Minister were jailed on charges of corruption.

The Chief Minister Siddaramiah has also demonstrated his political acumen by successfully keeping in check party interference in administrative decisions and has also been successful in having a Cabinet as per his choice, proving the confidence and faith in his leadership by the Congress High Command.

The Congress Party’s strategy of galvanising the party cadre from booth level has also started paying of results which was unheard before as responsibility has been fixed. The Pradesh Congress President is being assisted by working Presidents for specific regions assisted by General Secretary and Secretary for each Assembly constituency. General Secretary and Secretaries from AICC are actively involved in monitoring, supervising and guiding the state party functionaries, unlike previous AICC functionaries who used to be active only for Election Process and nominations for positions in the Government.

On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party which used to call itself a party with difference and disciplined is in utter chaos like the earlier Congress party which had too many leaders working divergently in their own interest.

The BJP strategy of announcing of State BJP president and former Chief Minister Yeddyurappa as its Chief Ministerial candidate has burnt several ends within the party, as several BJP and RSS workers feel that it was because of Yeddyurappa’s arrogance and his formation of KJP during the previous Assembly elections that aided the Congress in the earlier election.

The Central Leadership had to censor it’s own state president Yedyurappa several times during the Parivarthana rallies, when he went on announcing the names of candidates for the ensuing Assembly elections and creating a divide between the original BJP and migrant KJP.

State BJP President Yeddyurappa has also been waging a loner’s war against his own colleagues in the party as there is a big divide on the line to be toed whether hardcore Hindutva line or soft Hindutva line, especially with the young Members of Parliament Sunil Kateel, Pratap Sinha or Union Minister Ananth Kumar Hegde, who are also trying to convert every issue on communal and religious lines.

Today in Karnataka, BJP party has also lost the issue of corruption and the Gujarat model of development, which helped Narender Modi to become the Prime Minister, is of no consequence as the people have started questioning the morality of Prime Minister Modi, when people like Yeddyurappa and others are sitting next to him on the dias.

While the family-held Janata Dal (Secular) party, which is regional in nature, is hoping to play the King Maker, a role which it played earlier and failed subsequently in the last assembly elections. The party is also tied down to its own internal problems of inter family rivalry and dissidence from some of its MLAs who have rebelled against the father-son leadership and are joining BJP and Congress.

JD(S) presence can be felt more in Hassan, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Mandya, Ramnagar, Tumkur, Chikkaballapur and Kolar Districts of old Mysore region where its main rival is Congress, Raichur and Koppal Districts in Hyderabad Karnataka region and Belgaum, Karwar and Chikkodi in Bombay Karnataka Region where there is a triangular fight between Congress and BJP, prompting former Chief Minister HD Kumarswamy to shift his residence from Old Mysore region to Hubli of Central Karnataka.

Their main plank of being a farmer’s party has lost its sheen because the current Congress government gave incentives, subsidies and aid to the farmers in the last five years. This has forced JD(S) to join hands with BSP in 20 assembly segments, a majority of which are reserved constituencies raising questions of about how the vote-share will play out.

This battle for Karnataka is definitely going to see a bitter battle based on caste, creed and money unless unless the ruling Congress commits some grave mistake.

Whichever party among the three wins, it would be the end of two them politically, hence a do or die battle.