Bickley: ASU football needs a home-run hire before Todd Graham backlash gets worse

Rhetoric can be dangerous. Oversized expectations almost always dissolve into disappointment. Arizona State’s Ray Anderson was smart enough to recognize the pitfalls, telling Todd Graham to turn down his trademark bluster before the 2016 season.

Too bad Anderson ignored his own advice, doubling down on every reckless promise made by the man he just fired.

The termination of Graham’s contract has had a strange effect on the Valley. The firing is backfiring. Graham came to ASU with a vagabond reputation and leaves as a martyr. Football fans in Pittsburgh seem to be the only ones cheering loudly, still jilted six years after he left that program without saying goodbye.

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The shift in perception is stunning. It’s a nod to the undeniable progress made under Graham, who instilled military academy discipline at a school once known as Party U., forging a tremendous bounce-back season in 2017. It’s also a testament to the absurd power of the Territorial Cup, where beating the hated rival remains the best cosmetic on the market.

Had Graham lost to the Wildcats in the regular-season finale, it would sound much different around here. Anderson wouldn’t be at the center of the current firestorm, where the dimmest of wits are actually requesting his dismissal. In some ways, that’s exactly his point.

But Anderson made a big mistake during his Sunday press conference. He said ASU deserves a perennial Top 15 team. He doesn’t want to settle for lowly postseason bowls. He wants to compete for championships. He wants someone who can excel in “fan affinity advancement,” the strangest mouthful since former Diamondbacks General Managers Josh Byrnes touted the virtues of “organizational advocacy.”

There’s nothing wrong with elite aspirations. ASU has made incredible progress in academics, a school now considered a leader in the arena of innovation. Their enrollment is larger than many U.S. cities. They have a Division I hockey team, an uncommon feat for a Sun Belt institution.

Problem is, building a Division I powerhouse in football is far more arduous than constructing a downtown campus or assembling an unbeatable golf team. Great football programs generate massive amounts of money, and the costs are prohibitive. The competition is fierce because the rewards are bountiful, enhancing the image of the university, the self-esteem of students and the generosity of wealthy alumni.

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It’s also extremely rare for a college football team to reach the mountaintop while residing in a major professional sports market, and one of the exceptions (USC) happen to be in the same division as ASU. That’s a tough break, and a tough ask for Anderson’s next hire. Consider:

The next head coach must be $12.3 million better than Graham, the cost of buying out his contract. He’ll inherit unreasonable expectations, at least until ASU’s recruiting disadvantages disappear forever. And while Anderson is both bold and shrewd, compiling a resume of stellar coaching hires in other sports, there are lingering contradictions in the wake of Graham's dismissal.

How can Anderson attract a game-changing replacement without allowing that candidate to determine his own staff of assistants? And if Billy Napier and Phil Bennett are that good, isn’t that a positive reflection of Graham, another reason to keep him around? Bottom line: A head coach who accepts incumbent coordinators is usually taking the job out of desperation, for the wrong reasons.

Anderson is too smart for some of this nonsense. It suggests he already has his successor in pocket. His ties to the NFL, his reliance on Tony Dungy and the ongoing vacancy point to a hire that will come from the professional ranks, a season that doesn't end for another month. Teryl Austin, a defensive coordinator for the Lions, has been mentioned. So has retread Herm Edwards, who hasn’t coached in over a decade and was never in charge of a college program. One football fan dubbed him “Herm Backwards,” and even with the seductive power of television, Edwards would be considered a daffy and misguided hire for a program that just posted a surprisingly successful season.

Especially when UCLA just handed the keys to Chip Kelly and the Pac-12 now features the best confluence of head coaches in college football.

Anderson deserves some blind faith. He has displayed a keen eye and great candor when assessing Graham’s weaknesses in the past. But his own rhetoric has raised the bar significantly, and now he must deliver a home-run hire. The pool of marquee candidates is shallow and full of singles hitters, and unless he delivers Jon Gruden or poaches someone like Mike Leach, he will deliver ripples and not a splash.

He will have also disregarded the lessons taught by Graham in victory and failure, when overselling was part of his charm and under-delivering was part of his undoing. And unless Anderson has an ace he's ready to drop on the table, the backlash might get even worse.

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Reach Bickley at dan.bickley@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8253. Follow him on twitter.com/dan.bickley. Listen to “Bickley and Marotta” weekdays from 12-2 p.m. on 98.7 Arizona’s Sports Station.