Last season’s 4-12 finish saw the Houston Texans at the bottom of the AFC South, tied for last with the Indianapolis Colts. Despite that abysmal season, and despite the Jacksonville Jaguars nearly winning the entire AFC, one sportsbook believes the Texans are the team to beat in 2018.

BetOnline has installed early odds to win every NFL division. The Texans are the surprising favorites, just ahead of the Jaguars, who finished 2017 10-6 and beat the Texans twice by a combined score of 74-14.

The bookies seem to place a lot of value on the Texans getting stars J.J. Watt, Deshaun Watson and Whitney Mercilus back and healthy. The rebuilt offensive line helps too. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have lost their projected starting WR combo, as well as key nickel CB Aaron Colvin to the Texans.

Interestingly, the Titans and Colts are tied. Tennessee was a playoff team in 2017 and the Colts have done little to augment one of the league’s thinnest rosters even with a healthy return from quarterback Andrew Luck.