The Start of The Obama Recession–Real GDP Approaching Negative Growth Rates in Third and Fourth Quarters of 2012–Videos

Posted on September 27, 2012. Filed under: Agriculture, Banking, Blogroll, Communications, Demographics, Diasters, Economics, Federal Government Budget, Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics, Microeconomics, Monetary Policy, Money, Tax Policy | Tags: Economy, government spending, Ob ama Recession, Obama, Real GDP, Recession, Second Quarter 2012 growth in 2012, Taxes |

Last Modified: Thursday, September 27, 2012

3XSQ: GDP dries up, revised down to 1.3%

GDP Show US Economy Slowed In Second Quarter, Unemployment Drops, Durable Goods Orders Plunge

United States Fiscal Cliff – Wiki Article

National Income and Product Accounts

Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2012 (third estimate);

Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2012 (revised estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.7 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by smaller decreases in federal government spending and in state and local government spending and an acceleration in exports. Motor vehicle output added 0.20 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.72 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.10 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.02 percentage point to the first-quarter change. __________ FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components." __________ The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, 0.1 percentage point less than the second estimate; this index increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first. Durable goods decreased 0.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 11.5 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent. Services increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 12.9 percent. Equipment and software increased 4.8 percent, compared with an increase of 5.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 8.5 percent, compared with an increase of 20.5 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 5.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 4.2 percent in the first. National defense decreased 0.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.1 percent. Nondefense decreased 0.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.8 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.2 percent. The change in real private inventories subtracted 0.46 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 0.39 percentage point from the first-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $41.4 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $56.9 billion in the first quarter and $70.5 billion in the fourth. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the first. Gross national product Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent in the first. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which increased $27.4 billion in the second quarter after decreasing $44.1 billion in the first; in the second quarter, receipts increased $3.5 billion, and payments decreased $24.0 billion. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 2.8 percent, or $107.3 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $15,585.6 billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.2 percent, or $157.3 billion. Gross domestic income Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, increased 0.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent in the first. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data. However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of change. Revisions The "third" estimate of the second-quarter percent change in real GDP is 0.4 percentage point, or $16.0 billion, less than the "second" estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to private inventory investment, to personal consumption expenditures, and to exports. Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP............................... 1.5 1.7 1.3 Current-dollar GDP..................... 3.1 3.3 2.8 Gross domestic purchases price index... 0.7 0.8 0.7 Corporate Profits Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $21.8 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $53.0 billion in the first quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $6.0 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $169.8 billion in the first. Taxes on corporate income decreased $10.3 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $83.2 billion in the first. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $31.9 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $136.2 billion in the first. Dividends increased $20.4 billion, compared with an increase of $9.2 billion; current- production undistributed profits increased $11.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $145.5 billion. Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $39.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $12.3 billion in the first. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $27.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $7.3 billion in the first. In the second quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real value added increased. The increase in unit profits reflected an increase in unit prices and a decrease in unit nonlabor costs that were partly offset by an increase in unit labor costs. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $33.6 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $48.0 billion in the first. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The second-quarter increase was accounted for by an increase in receipts and a decrease in payments. Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this measure, domestic profits of financial corporations decreased. The decrease in financial corporations was primarily accounted for by a decrease in "other" financial industries. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased, primarily reflecting increases in wholesale trade, in manufacturing, and in information industries. Within manufacturing, the largest increases were in computer and electronic products and in "other" durable goods. Profits before tax decreased $16.3 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $188.1 billion in the first. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment decreased $1.7 billion in the second quarter (from -$200.7 billion to -$202.4 billion), compared with a decrease of $230.3 billion in the first. The large decrease in the first-quarter capital consumption adjustment mainly reflected the expiration of bonus depreciation claimed under the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $39.7 billion (from -$23.7 billion to $16.0 billion), in contrast to a decrease of $10.8 billion. * * * BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release – October 26, 2012, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2012 (Advance Estimate) http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Q2 GDP SLASHED TO 1.3%

“…The third reading on Q2 GDP just came out and the report was ugly.

The headline growth number was revised down to 1.3 percent on an annualized basis.

Economists expected the number to be unchanged at 1.7 percent.

“As we recently noted, you’ll need to watch the rear-view mirror to see the recession come into focus,” wrote ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan in an email to Business Insider.

“The “third” estimate of the second-quarter percent change in real GDP is 0.4 percentage point, or $16.0 billion, less than the “second” estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to private inventory investment, to personal consumption expenditures, and to exports,” wrote the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The personal consumption component was revised down to 1.5 percent. Economists were expecting it to be unchanged at 1.7 percent. …”

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis: ————————

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.7 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by smaller decreases in federal government spending and in state and local government spending and an acceleration in exports.

Motor vehicle output added 0.20 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.72 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.10 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.02 percentage point to the first-quarter change.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/final-q3-gdp-2012-9#ixzz27hA9f7Cd

U.S. GDP Revised Down to 1.3 Percent in Q2

“…U.S. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by smaller decreases in federal government spending and in state and local government spending and an acceleration in exports.

Motor vehicle output added 0.20 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.72 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.10 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.02 percentage point to the first-quarter change.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first. Durable goods decreased 0.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 11.5 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent. Services increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 12.9 percent. Equipment and software increased 4.8 percent, compared with an increase of 5.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 8.5 percent, compared with an increase of 20.5 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 5.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 4.2 percent in the first. National defense decreased 0.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.1 percent. Nondefense decreased 0.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.8 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.2 percent.

The change in real private inventories subtracted 0.46 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 0.39 percentage point from the first-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $41.4 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $56.9 billion in the first quarter and $70.5 billion in the fourth. …”

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

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