So exactly how does a Zach LaVine-Ja Morant backcourt work?

A quick statistical dive into how a pairing of the top NBA PG prospect and the Bulls explosive 24-year old SG could function.

Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

At this point in the draft process, most NBA scouts have labeled Murray State point guard Ja Morant as the top guard prospect in the 2019 NBA Draft class. And the young, up-and-coming (yes, you read that correctly) Chicago Bulls have went 5–6 post-All-Star break and have the 12th best offensive rating over that stretch.

Point guards Kris Dunn and Ryan Arcidiacono have been fine for now, but overall the numbers suggests that they are providing below-average guard play. So if the Bulls are in position to take the most-exciting-prospect-not-named-Zion in Murray State PG Ja Morant, what can we expect from the pairing?

A lot of offense and…..seriously, A LOT of offense with everything else being a giant work in progress.

Through 31 games, Morant is averaging 24.6 PPG, 10.0 APG, 5.5 RPG and his shooting splits are 50.3/33.6/81.0 (FG/3PT/FT).

The first thing to remember when discussing a LaVine-Morant backcourt, is that LaVine took a huge step forward this year as a playmaker and efficient scorer, and the hope is that will carry over to next season, when the Bulls plan to have a more capable lead ball handler than Dunn or Arcidiacono.

Now, you don’t want to take too much playmaking responsibility away from LaVine…..but you certainly don’t draft Ja Morant to play in an off-ball role.

Morant runs the show for the 41st ranked offense (out of 353 teams via KenPom) and again keep in mind he is doing this with an incredible 33.6 percent usage rate. He is finishing at a 62.5 percent rate at the rim, with well over half of his shots coming at the rim per Hoop-Math.com.

Morant’s best skill is his passing, which when coupled with his incredible speed and finishing ability, allows him to find openings in the defense at a high level.

So when you project him onto the Bulls, the first thing you need to do is accept the fact that Morant’s №1 job will be to turn Lauri Markkanen into a lower usage but higher efficiency star, meaning that Morant and LaVine will have to coexist as a high-usage duo. Ja leads the nation with 10.0 APG, with a significant gap between he and the second place assist man (7.7), Kai Toews.

A great example of the type of backcourt Jim Boylen would be in charge of if the Bulls nab Morant is that of the Portland Trail Blazers, who use the Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum duo to great effect by having them take the lion’s share of the ball handling duties.

Portland head coach Terry Stotts is excellent at managing the rotation, as he has the created three of the best lineups in the league in terms of net rating, swapping out different wing players around the backcourt of McCollum and Lillard.

LaVine hit a career-high 29.6 percent usage rate though 60 games in 2018–19, which is almost exactly what Lillard’s usage rate was last season (29.3 percent). Portland maintained the 13th best offensive rating in the league in 2017–18 by letting Lillard lead the charge, with McCollum and center Jusuf Nurkic posting similar usage rates.

Based off of what we have seen from Lauri Markkanen, he is capable of taking a smaller share of the offense in order to let others thrive. His natural floor-spacing ability makes that easy. But Morant has a weird two-handed jump shot that means he will not be a catch-and-shoot threat from day one, and maybe not ever.

Morant’s usage rate was 20 percent on the 2018 Murray State team that finished 26–6 on the year. His usage rate has taken a massive spike this season with the departures of some key players from the Racers. Morant’s 33.6 percent usage rate is a good example of how he will need to be used to be most successful. The Ringer’s Jonathan Tjarks made the Russell Westbrook comparison, which I am actually a huge fan of. It reinforces the idea that the minute you draft Morant, the team becomes his team.

Of course I don’t mean this in the traditional media storyline way, they can easily co-exist, but with LaVine hitting 36.7 percent of his catch & shoot 3-pointers, it is clear that he is the player that would have to do more of his work off-ball than on.

And that is a somewhat tough pill to swallow with LaVine posting his highest assist rate (22.3 percent) since his rookie year. Morant is going to make A LOT of mistakes his rookie year. He is an explosive prospect who relies on athleticism to score, and for the first time ever, he will consistently face rim protectors and defenders who can match him step-for-step.

But Morant’s vision and timing on passes is simply too great for him to not be a solid PG at the NBA level. He has the potential to truly unlock “off-ball LaVine”. LaVine is posting the second-best offensive rating of his career (104.7) and he has the potential to reach a career-high next season if Morant is on the floor with him, drawing considerable amounts of defensive attention himself.

But he will need to be drafted to a team that is willing to play him heavy minutes and let him work through the mistakes, no matter how bad they may be. Tom Thibodeau had Kris Dunn on a short leash during his rookie year, and many believe that he forced Dunn to develop a tendency to play scared that could still be effecting him now.

LaVine and Morant would be an awesome backcourt that would rack up crazy amounts of free throws, push the tempo and free up open shooters at an high rate.

But the perimeter defense would be lackluster with a lot of gambles, and there will be plenty of frustrating moments as Morant tries to figure out ways in which he can be a threat without the ball in his hands.

Morant still has plenty of defensive potential seeing as he has an excellent 2.8 percent steal rate and has showcased active hands in the passing lanes (1.8 SPG).

LaVine-Morant would be an explosive duo, in which each player would post usage rates hovering around 25-to-30 percent, leaving Markkanen to feast on open 3-point looks all day to the tune of a 23 percent or better usage rate and around 14–16 shots per game.

But that backcourt pairing means we would see LaVine look a lot more like Minnesota-LaVine, where every season 40 percent or more of his baskets were assisted. In 2018–19, 61.9 percent of LaVine’s made field goals are unassisted, highlighting just how much efficiency he is leaving on the table. Simply put, Ja Morant could be the best or worst thing to happen to Zach LaVine’s career. It simply comes down to how the head coach integrates Morant into the fold.