Warming Trend Likely Into Mid-October



"Do not let the behavior of others destroy your inner peace" said the Dalai Lama. I vaguely remember inner peace. Someone freeze me like a popsicle and thaw me out in 2022.

I achieved some level of inner peace gazing at the weather models this morning. A mild bias will spark an outbreak of smiles, shorts and sunglasses late next week, and maybe the week after that.



A frost can't be ruled out in the outlying suburbs Friday and Sunday. On average the official first 32-degree low at MSP comes October 13. The first tenth of an inch of snow usually arrives November 6. And the average first skid-worthy inch of slush comes November 21.

A few more instability showers pop today, and a stray shower is possible Saturday - but this weekend looks drier than it did a few days ago.

Next week is just the appetizer with a shot at 70F Tuesday. NOAA's GFS model predicts metro highs near 80 between October 8-12, before an (inevitable) cold front bursts our balmy-weather-bubble.

Meditate on this: good leaf-peeping weather is coming.

Photo from Deerfield Trail Lake courtesy of Pete Schenck.

Twin Cities Data. Impress and amaze your friends with the statistics above! Good times.

Fewer Showers Today - But Feels Like October. The atmosphere won't be quite as unstable, thundery and capable of pea-size hail and wind gusts over 30 mph today - but a stray shower or two can't be ruled out, maybe a few flurries over far northern Minnesota. Cue the theme from "Jaws".

Raw Start to October, Then Mellowing Next Week. You'll get a little spring in your step again by Monday and Tuesday as temperatures rise back into the 60s. An isolated shower can't be ruled out Saturday, but Sunday should be dry with a better chance of spying the sun. Map sequence above: Praedictix and AerisWeather.

Dueling Models. Both ECMWF (top) and GFS (bottom) show a warming trend on the way, the just differ on the timing and strength. I will wash and wax Belinda Jensen's car if it gets to 88F on Friday, October 9. Sorry GFS, it's 2020 - so I wouldn't rule anything out - but odds it won't get that warm. The best chance of 70s and an outside shot at 80F will come late next week into early the following week, before temperatures cool off again. MSP Meteograms above: WeatherBell.

Close to Average. No prolonged cold outbreaks are shaping up for mid-October; a predicted zonal flow keeping temperatures close to average northern tier of the USA will the southern US continues to sizzle.

Drier Than Average September. Rainfall last month was 1-2" less than normal across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Only far southeastern counties saw above normal precipitation.

NOAA Turns 50! We can debate which weather models are more accurate, but there's little doubt (in my mind, at least) that America has the best weather service on the planet. Kudos to the men and women of NOAA who keep us informed, in good weather and bad. Details via NOAA: "Since its inception in 1970, NOAA has evolved into one of the world’s premier science organizations with a mission that spans from the surface of the sun to the floor of the ocean. Our work is incredibly diverse, and it’s difficult to capture everything we do in one place. We hope this graphic speaks volumes about how the meaningful work we do is embedded into the fabric of American lives and livelihoods..."

A Hopeful Forecast: More Accurate Long-Term Weather Predictions. Good news (for people living in the tropics) but pesky chaos theory quickly comes into play - don't get your hopes too high too fast. The New York Times (paywall) reports; here's an excerpt: "...In the ’90s, we had almost no satellite observations in the southern hemisphere,” she said. “Since then, the number and quality of satellite observations has increased substantially,” so our ability to make accurate forecasts in the southern hemisphere is almost as good as in the northern hemisphere. Additionally, the global weather models that are now in development can simulate showers and thunderstorms, Dr. Judt says, whereas existing models cannot. This, coupled with a series of weather satellites set to launch over the next few years, should translate to longer lead times for tropical forecasts. “We should see an improvement in tropical weather prediction in the next 10 years,” he said..."

AWIPS file image courtesy of NOAA.

Extreme Weather and Power Outages. How much is natural variability, demographics (more people living in risky areas) and a rapidly changing climate? Climate Central has perspective: "...Hurricanes, wildfires, ice storms, flooding, heat waves and other extreme weather events are growing in number or intensity with climate change. Combined with the nation’s aging electrical infrastructure, extreme weather is causing frequent damage to our electrical system, costing Americans and the economy tens of billions of dollars each year, and impacting public health. Between 2003 and 2012, weather-related outages are estimated to have cost the U.S. economy an inflation-adjusted annual average of $18 billion to $33 billion. While for many, power outages are a nuisance and economically disruptive, they have the potential to become life-threatening in a matter of hours for certain vulnerable populations. Loss of electricity puts health care facilities at risk and can knock out essential equipment. Refrigeration, heating and cooling come to mind first. But it also halts potable water pumping equipment, and stalls sewage treatment plants, which can force the release of raw sewage into waterways..."

The West's Infernos Are Melting Our Sense of How Fire Works. WIRED.com (paywall) provides needed perspective on what's happening: "...In making sense of Western wildfires, total acres burned are far less important than the increasingly capricious violence of our most extreme blazes. It is as if we’ve crossed some threshold of climate and fire fuel into an era of uncontrollable conflagrations. “Not only is the size and severity increasing, but the nature of fire is changing,” says David Saah, director of Pyregence, a group of fire-science labs and researchers collaborating on the problem. Still more concerning, given the trend toward fires dramatically more catastrophic than anything we’ve yet seen: The physics of large-scale wildfires remain so poorly understood that fire-modeling software is often effectively powerless to predict where they will next occur, much less how they will unfold once they do. If there is any good news, it is that, as Saah puts it, “the science for a lot of this stuff is under way...”

Homes Are Flooding Outside FEMA's 100-Year Flood Zones, and Racial Inequality is Showing Through. Here's a clip from a post at The Conversation: "...New research suggests that nearly twice as many properties are at risk from a 100-year flood today than the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood maps indicate. Unfortunately, many of the people living in those properties have no idea that their homes are at risk until the floodwaters rise. I am a sociologist who works on disaster vulnerability. In a new study, I looked at the makeup of communities in Houston that aren’t in the 100-year flood zone, but that still flood. What I found tells a story of racial disparities in the city. Research in other cities has shown similar flooding problems in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods..."

Map credit : First Street Foundation.

New Super-Enzyme Eats Plastic Bottles Six Times Faster. I hope whoever brings this to market makes trillions of dollars. The Guardian reports: "A super-enzyme that degrades plastic bottles six times faster than before has been created by scientists and could be used for recycling within a year or two. The super-enzyme, derived from bacteria that naturally evolved the ability to eat plastic, enables the full recycling of the bottles. Scientists believe combining it with enzymes that break down cotton would also allow mixed-fabric clothing to be recycled. Today, millions of tons of such clothing is either dumped in landfill or incinerated. Plastic pollution has contaminated the whole planet, from the Arctic to the deepest oceans, and people are now known to consume and breathe microplastic particles..."

Parrots in Wildlife Park Moved After Swearing at Visitors. Maybe they watched the debates? CNN Travel has a perfect metaphor for 2020: "Five parrots have been removed from public view at a British wildlife park after they started swearing at customers. The foul-mouthed birds were split up after they launched a number of different expletives at visitors and staff just days after being donated to Lincolnshire Wildlife Park in eastern England. "It just went ballistic, they were all swearing," the venue's chief executive Steve Nichols told CNN Travel on Tuesday. "We were a little concerned about the children..."

64 F. high in the Twin Cities on Wednesday.

65 F. average high on September 30.

86 F. high on September 30, 2019.

October 1, 1999: One of the earliest significant snowfalls in Minnesota history falls in a narrow track across southern Minnesota. Reported snowfall totals include 4.0 inches in Montgomery (Le Sueur County) and Northfield (Rice County), 3.8 inches in Springfield (Brown County), 3.0 inches in Vesta (Redwood county), and 2.8 inches in Mankato (Blue Earth County).

October 1, 1989: High temperatures across central and southern Minnesota reach the 80's. Later in the day, a cold front would come through and drop the mercury to the 40's.

THURSDAY: Chilly, few showers. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 53



FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, winds ease. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 37. High: 49



SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, stray shower possible. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 38. High: 52



SUNDAY: Partly sunny, a little nicer. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 36. High: 57



MONDAY: Intervals of sun, a milder breeze. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 44. High: 62



TUESDAY: Milder with a passing T-shower. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 49. High: 68



WEDNESDAY: Windy with a mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 46. High: 59

Photo credit : Susan Marmot.

Climate Stories...

Trump, Biden Spar Over Climate Change at Debate. TheHill reports: "President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden sparred over climate change and their respective records on the issue during Tuesday night's presidential debate. Moderator Chris Wallace asked Trump during one segment of the debate whether he believed that human greenhouse gas emissions contribute to warming of the planet. “I think a lot of things do but I think to an extent yes,” the president said, later adding in reference to current wildfires blazing in the West that “we have to do better management of our forests..."

Young Evangelicals Are Defying Their Elders's Politics. An Op-Ed at CNN.com from YECA (I am on the board of parent non-profit EEN, Evangelical Environmental Network) caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "...Among this growing throng of youth climate activists are some you might not expect: young evangelical Christians. The organization I work with, Young Evangelicals for Climate Action, educates and mobilizes young evangelical Christians across the country to take action to address the climate crisis. Over the last several years, I have had hundreds of conversations with young Christians about how our faith should inform our pursuit of climate justice. A common narrative runs through almost every story I hear..."

How Overlooking Climate Change Could Be a Personal Liability. GC Capital Ideas has the post; here's the intro: "Reinsurers are well-placed to advise clients on responding to climate change risk. As climate change and the associated increase in natural catastrophe events alters the contemporary risk landscape, there is now an opportunity for companies to partner with the (re)insurance market and put its expertise to work. Climate change is complicating two of the most important board responsibilities — its duties to protect long-term shareholder value and oversee risk management, according to Rob Bailey, Director of Climate Resilience at Marsh & McLennan Advantage and Jack Flug, Managing Director, FINPRO at Guy Carpenter-affiliate Marsh U.S. Investors and regulators are paying more attention to how companies are managing climate risks as concerns grow about the risk that climate change poses to shareholder value, with implications for directors..."

File image : Citizen's Committee for Flood Relief.

Climate Change is Increasing the Likelihood of Extreme Autumn Wildfire Conditions Across California. Here's an excerpt of a paper at IOPScience: "...We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (~1 °C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (~30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather—which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires—has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s. We further find an increase in the climate model-estimated probability of these extreme autumn conditions since ~1950, including a long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions in northern and southern California. Our climate model analyses suggest that continued climate change will further amplify the number of days with extreme fire weather..."

Antarctica Could Melt "Irreversibly" Due to Climate Change, Study Warns. Here's a clip from Live Science: " Antarctica contains more than half of the world's freshwater in its sprawling, frozen ice sheet, but humanity's decisions over the next century could send that water irreversibly into the sea. If global warming is allowed to continue unchecked, Antarctica will soon pass a "point of no return" that could reduce the continent to a barren, ice-free mass for the first time in more than 30 million years, according to a new study published Sep. 23 in the journal Nature . "Antarctica is basically our ultimate heritage from an earlier time in Earth's history. It's been around for roughly 34 million years," study co-author Anders Levermann, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, said in a statement ..."

Guardian/Vice Poll Finds Most US 2020 Voters Strongly Favor Climate Action. Here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "...Seven in 10 voters support government action to address climate change, with three-quarters wanting the US to generate all of its electricity from renewable sources such as solar and wind within 15 years. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports the complete shift to clean energy, with a further seven in 10 voters supporting US involvement in the Paris climate agreement, which commits countries to tackling dangerous heating. Two-thirds of voters said climate should be a priority for whoever wins the election..."

Disease-Spreading Ticks Keep Marching North as Weather Stays Warmer. One of the downsides of a longer growing season, explains Bloomberg Green: "...The relentless northward march is closely linked to mild winters and warming summers that give ticks more opportunity to find hosts. Understanding ticks' migration and their concurrent climb to ever higher latitudes and altitudes has grown from a passing curiosity to an obsession for Richard Ostfeld, a 65-year-old disease ecologist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, New York. He's immersed himself in the study of ticks for almost three decades - and has spent the last decade looking at how climate affects tick survival..."

Map credit : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Shocker: Big Oil Has the Same Lawyers as Tobacco. Vice News explains: "...But supporters of climate lawsuits see this a deliberate public relations strategy. “It’s reminiscent of the tobacco liability litigation,” Denise Antolini, an environmental law professor at the University of Hawaii, told VICE News. She said that fossil fuel producers are desperate to prevent public opinion from turning against them, the same way it did against cigarette makers once courts ruled that they had deliberately lied about the dangers of smoking. If and when these current climate lawsuits start being tried, Big Oil will have to defend itself in court against allegations that it could have prevented immense death and suffering by acting on its early knowledge of climate change, but chose to fund campaigns casting doubt on climate science instead..."

New Study Shows a Viscious Circle of Climate Change Building on Thickening Layers of Warm Ocean Water. Wait, everything is connected? Amazing. Here's a clip from a story at InsideClimate News: "...Increased stratification of the ocean could drive a vicious cycle of warming, Mann added. If more and more heat stays near the surface of the ocean, the warm water will heat the atmosphere above. And if the layers of warm water slow the ocean's uptake of carbon dioxide, more heat-trapping CO2 will stay in the atmosphere. The researchers found that, overall, stratification in the upper 600 feet of the ocean increased by 6 percent in the last 50 years. Previous calculations measuring the change over time were not as accurate because they didn't include as much data, said co-author Lijing Cheng, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics..."