Even if there is a deal, it’s certain to spark anger across the spectrum. Lawmakers fear voter cliff backlash

Senators from both parties are bracing for a furious voter backlash if American taxpayers begin to receive thinner paychecks in the new year, and that dynamic is what’s driving Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to make a last-ditch effort on the fiscal cliff.

For McConnell, the concern is more urgent — both on the policy and political fronts. Polls show his party would suffer most of the blame for falling off the cliff, something Republicans can ill afford as it tries again to regain the Senate majority in two years. And as voter anger grows in the new year, Republicans will have an even weaker hand with more Democrats in the next Congress and a president who’s about to be inaugurated for his second term.


( Also on POLITICO: Reid, McConnell’s Sunday showdown)

That gives McConnell all the more incentive to cut a deal now.

“In the short term, Republicans are blamed more than Democrats,” Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), the incoming chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, acknowledged. “I think in the long term, the political damage is to the president and to Democrats.”

“Short of a deal, the whole rating of Washington will continue to decline,” said Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), chief deputy whip. “It’s hard to believe we can dig into families and friends, but that’s where we’ll be.”

( PHOTOS: 11 side effects of going over the cliff)

But Reid faces his own competing pressures — from a White House that wants him to carry a deal through, moderate Democrats who face a tough 2014 reelection and liberals who want him to hold firm against the GOP, even if it means going over the cliff.

A number of Democrats — several of whom will face voters in 2014 — worry no one will be unscathed, including President Barack Obama. If taxes skyrocket and deep cuts take effect, Obama could preside over an eroding economy that could torpedo his second-term agenda as he tries to broaden his presidency to focus on issues like immigration reform and gun control. Voters, Democrats in the Senate fear, will take it out on them, as well.

“I don’t blame people at home for wondering what in the heck is going on in the nation’s capital,” said Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), who is up for reelection in 2014. “It’s hard to explain. … I don’t think it looks good for either party.”

“They’re going to be a lot of people who are going to be disappointed and a little bit put out because they elected us to do our job,” said Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who faces voters in two years. “Obviously, we’ll want to resolve this as quickly as possible after the new year.”

But while Baucus and Landrieu have to worry about 2014, there’s a camp of liberals who don’t want Reid to budge at all unless McConnell caves to virtually all Democratic demands. They argue their party could work its will in the new year and have a much stronger hand to rewrite the Tax Code. Liberal Democrats warn that their party base will be furious at a deal they believe gives away too much either by not raising taxes enough or by caving on spending cuts.

“I just hope the president doesn’t think he has to give away all this stuff,” said Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa). “He’s in a much better position after the first of the year than he is now.”

No matter what happens, many lawmakers on both sides fear the potentially devastating fallout of a failure to reach a deal. And even if there is a deal, it’s certain to spark anger across the spectrum, as Reid himself acknowledged heading into the final weekend of talks.

“Some people aren’t going to like it,” Reid said Friday on the floor. “Some people will like it less.”

On Saturday, Reid and McConnell traded a flurry of offers, but sources close to the talks said they were still far apart from a deal. They plan to continue to negotiate through Sunday before briefing their respective caucuses in the afternoon. If no deal is reached, Reid will put a plan on the floor on Monday to raise taxes on families who earn more than $250,000, extend jobless benefits, patch the alternative minimum tax and prevent doctors who service Medicare patients from seeing their payments slashed.

But Republicans said Saturday they doubted such a plan could pass the House, meaning Congress could very well conclude the year’s session without a deal to avert the fiscal cliff.

On top of that, the feeling in the House is much different. Some Republicans in the House recoil at the thought of backing a tax deal endorsed by Obama given their commitment never to raise taxes and the antipathy toward the president in deep-red districts.

Still, McConnell is eager to see the revenue issue settled before the end of the year, believing that Republicans have less leverage in winning a fight over extending current tax rates for the top 2 percent of wage earners. He would rather turn to the next big fight over spending — when it comes time to raise the $16.4 trillion national debt ceiling.

Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) echoed McConnell’s sentiments.

“We’ve known all along that we’re going to deal with the revenue piece, right?” Corker said. “It’s either going to be before or after [Dec. 31]. I think it will be dealt with before year-end — what that means is we’d immediately pivot right after the first of the year to entitlements.”

If there’s no deal, Corker said, it would amount to a “total embarrassment.”

“I think it demonstrates a tremendous lack of courage in Washington to address the issues that need to be addressed,” Corker said.

The fear among lawmakers from both parties is that the disgust voters feel toward Washington after years of gridlock, topped by the first tax increase in about two decades, will lead to voters tossing many lawmakers out of office in the next election.

On top of that, more families might be forced to pay higher estate taxes; doctors could experience cuts in their Medicare reimbursements; and two million jobless Americans would see their employment benefits lapse. Add $109 billion of spending cuts to defense and domestic programs, and the ripple effect could cause another recession.

“We may get some disproportionate blame,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), “but there will be plenty to go around.”

Added GOP Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma: “All I know it’s a failure of leadership from everywhere.”

And if Washington goes over the fiscal cliff, cutting a deal next year will be no easier with a new membership of senators and House members and as Congress prepares for an all-out battle over raising the debt limit. Republicans will maintain a majority in the House, while Democrats will control 55 seats in a body where 60 votes are needed to move most major pieces of legislation.

“You gotta basically start over — a new Congress — and you’re going to have to have 60 votes in the Senate,” said Texas Sen. John Cornyn, the incoming minority whip. “I think it’s all part of a plan to ultimately go off the cliff and have a whole bunch of new revenue and make it much harder to make tax rates low through the course of the year.”

Indeed, some Democrats, such as Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, argue that going over the cliff could force anti-tax Republicans into backing higher taxes. Since all income taxpayers will suffer a rate hike if no deal is reached, the thinking goes that any deal that lowers those rates would be considered a cut next year, although they would ultimately be higher than they are in 2012.

Some Democrats say that while Republicans will be tarnished, no one can afford the fallout of a failure to reach a deal before New Year’s Day.

“I don’t think the American people will be very happy with the outcome,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said, if no deal is reached. “Polls indicate that most people blame the Republicans, but in the end, I think people will be upset with Congress in general.”

Burgess Everett and Steven Sloan contributed to this report.