BLISS it is in this dawn to be a Conservative. Or at least, it should be. With the general election six weeks away, Britain’s main governing party presides over a growing economy and zero inflation. In David Cameron it has by far the most popular leader. The right-wing UK Independence Party, which once threatened to erode the Tory vote, is declining in some polls. The pro-independence Scottish National Party, by contrast, looks ever more likely to demolish the opposition Labour Party in Scotland. The Conservatives’ straightforward messages about economic competence and leadership compare well not only with Labour’s ramshackle offering but also with their own meandering campaign in 2010.

Lynton Crosby, the party’s election guru, has long told the Tory troops that these advantages will eventually propel the party past Labour in opinion polls. His theory is that once voters start thinking about the choice at the election, they will suddenly prefer the certainty of the status quo. He has a point: governing parties typically get a poll boost towards the end of their terms in office. But the surge, once expected in October, then in January, then after last week’s budget statement, remains elusive. The Tories have gradually closed the gap with Labour, but, with the official campaign period due to start on March 30th, the two parties remain tied.

Why are the Conservatives’ economic record and leadership strengths not yet translating into a lead (see chart)? One reason is that the central project of Mr Cameron’s leadership, to erase his party’s out-of-touch, nasty image, has been only partly successful. The prime minister has made some strides in this direction: gay voters, in particular, are pleased by his move to legalise same-sex marriage. Yet still the Conservative Party generally lags behind the opposition among women, non-whites, young people and in the traditionally Labour-voting north of England (see article). According to an Ipsos MORI poll last year, fully 40% of voters say they would never vote Tory, compared with just 33% who would not vote Labour.

A hint at why the Conservatives still struggle with what party strategists call their “brand problem” came on March 23rd when a recording emerged of Hugo Swire, a minister, joking that anyone on benefits could afford to donate £55,000 ($82,000) to the party. Another came the following day when the Tory candidate for Dudley North, a West Midlands marginal, resigned following claims that he had encouraged the hard-right English Defence League to plan a march against a planned mosque, creating tensions that he would defuse.

Another factor is that the party seems to be losing its composure as it rounds the final bend. From Mr Cameron’s bizarre retirement announcement (see article) to an online question-and-answer session that was predictably hijacked by anti-Tory troublemakers, the slick Conservative campaign has shuddered in recent days. On March 24th the prime minister was heckled and booed by a crowd of pensioners when he talked about health care (a subject on which his party lags behind Labour and about which it talks little—mistakenly, grumble some in its ranks).

But the best explanation for Labour’s durability in polls of voting intention is the fact that it has a stronger ground campaign. The Conservative Party is smaller, older and less tribal than its opponent. It has tried to correct this deficiency, most notably with Road Trip 2015, a tour of marginal seats for young activists known as the “shag bus”. But recent polling by Lord Ashcroft, a Conservative peer, found that in five of eight key Tory-Labour marginals Labour had contacted more voters—in some cases many more.

The Conservatives are stronger at the national level. They have more support among newspapers, more money for advertising and a stronger team of media performers on their front bench. Yet party figures and academics increasingly suspect that, to quote Paul Whiteley of Essex University, the “ground war” may now be more effective than the “air war”. So Labour’s strong local campaigns could give it more of an edge than in the past. Moreover, after months of wriggling Mr Cameron has agreed to debate the other party leaders on television. That might favour Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, whose ratings can hardly get worse.