Democrats on social media

Progressive activists Other Democrats

The Democratic electorate off social media

Progressive activists Other Democrats Estimates are based on the Hidden Tribes project. “Democrats on social media” means respondents identified as Democratic-leaning voters who said they had posted political content on social media in the last year; “Democrats off social media” means Democratic-leaning voters who said they had not. Democrats who count as “progressive activists” are those who were identified as such in the Hidden Tribes survey, based on their answers to dozens of survey questions.

Perhaps the most telling poll of the Democratic primary season hasn’t been about the Democratic primary at all — but about the fallout from a 35-year-old racist photo on a yearbook page. Gov. Ralph Northam of Virginia was pummeled on social media after the revelation, and virtually every Democratic presidential candidate demanded his resignation.

Yet the majority of ordinary Democrats in Virginia said Mr. Northam should remain in office, according to a Washington Post/Schar School poll a week later. And black Democrats were likelier than white ones to say Mr. Northam should remain.

Today’s Democratic Party is increasingly perceived as dominated by its “woke” left wing. But the views of Democrats on social media often bear little resemblance to those of the wider Democratic electorate.

The outspoken group of Democratic-leaning voters on social media is outnumbered, roughly 2 to 1, by the more moderate, more diverse and less educated group of Democrats who typically don’t post political content online, according to data from the Hidden Tribes Project. This latter group has the numbers to decide the Democratic presidential nomination in favor of a relatively moderate establishment favorite, as it has often done in the past.

Democrats who do not post political content to social media sites are more likely to …

Identify themselves as moderates or conservatives of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Say political correctness is a problem in the U.S. of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Say they don’t follow the news much of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Be African-American of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Even these results might understate the leftward lean of the most politically active, Democratic Twitter users, who often engage with political journalists and can have a powerful effect in shaping the conventional wisdom. In an informal poll of Democrats on one of our Twitter accounts on Monday, about 80 percent said they were liberal, and a similar percentage said they had a college degree. Only 20 percent said political correctness was a problem, and only 2 percent said they were black.

The relative moderation of Democrats who are not sharing their political thoughts on social media, and therefore of Democrats as a whole, makes it less surprising that Virginia Democrats tolerated Mr. Northam’s yearbook page. It makes it easier to imagine how Joe Biden might not merely survive questions about whether he touched women in ways that made them feel uncomfortable, but might even emerge essentially unscathed.

It also helps explain why recent polls show that a majority of Democrats would rather see the party become more moderate than move leftward, even as progressives clamor for a Green New Deal or Medicare for all.

Democrats who post political content on social media are more likely to ...

Have a college degree of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Be white of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Say they have become more liberal in their lifetime of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Say they have attended a protest in the last year of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

Say they have donated to a political organization in the last year of Democrats

on social media of other Democrats

The Hidden Tribes Project, conducted by More in Common, is a nonpartisan representative YouGov survey of 8,000 Americans that divided respondents into different groups, or “tribes,” based on their responses to dozens of questions. The characteristics of these groups help make sense of the different ways Democrats have run and won primary elections.

In reality, the Democratic electorate is both ideologically and demographically diverse. Over all, around half of Democratic-leaning voters consider themselves “moderate” or “conservative,” not liberal. Around 40 percent are not white.

Roughly a quarter of Democrats count as ideologically consistent progressives, who toe the party line or something further to the left on just about every issue. Only a portion of them, perhaps 1 in 10 Democrats over all, might identify as Democratic socialists, based on recent polls.

Traditional liberals — another relatively white, well-educated bloc of Democrats — are also overrepresented on social media. They’re united with the progressive activists on the issues that divide Republicans and Democrats. They split on whether American society is fundamentally and unacceptably unjust, with liberals optimistic about compromise and satisfied with a cautious approach, and progressives demanding bolder action to redress injustice in society.

The Democratic electorate ... On social media In real life Source: Upshot analysis of the Hidden Tribes project. “Moderate” group includes conservative tribes. Probabilistic likely voter weight based on self-reported turnout in 2016 and local elections, and self-reported intention to vote in the 2018 midterm election.

The candidates of the progressive left, whether Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, speak with moral clarity. The strongest traditional liberal candidates, despite their pragmatic streak, speak with hopeful idealism, stemming from their relatively optimistic view of the country’s capacity to compromise, reform and change. Barack Obama took that tack in 2008, and Beto O’Rourke and Cory Booker might hope to in 2020.

In recent decades, most of the candidates who have found their core strength among the party’s ideologically consistent, left-liberal activist base have lost. Gary Hart, Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson, Howard Dean and Mr. Sanders all fell short against candidates of the party’s establishment, like Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton. The establishment candidates won the nomination by counting on the rest of the party’s voters.

The rest of the party is easy to miss. Not only is it less active on social media, but it is also under-represented in the well-educated, urban enclaves where journalists roam. It is under-represented in the Northern blue states and districts where most Democratic politicians win elections.

Many in this group are party stalwarts: people who are Democrats because of identity and self-interest — a union worker, an African-American — more than their policy views. Their votes are concentrated in the South, where Democratic politicians rarely win.

Where the rest of the Democratic Party lives Moderates, passive liberals and disengaged voters as a share of all Democrats Va. Okla. Ky. Nev. Md. Ill. Ohio Mo. Ind. Mich. N.Y. W.Va. N.M. Pa. N.J. Calif. Kan. Iowa Minn. Neb. Ariz. Wyo. Wis. N.D. Hawaii Conn. Mass. Vt. Utah N.H. Colo. Mont. Ore. Alaska Me. Idaho S.D. Wash. Ark. Miss. Tex. Ala. La. N.C. Tenn. Ga. Fla. S.C. Del. 40 45 50 55 60%

Nonwhite voters, particularly black voters, are a major driver of this geographic split. Black voters represent around 20 percent of the Democratic electorate nationwide and a majority of Democrats in the Deep South. Mr. Obama’s strength among black voters allowed him to defeat the establishment favorite candidate (Mrs. Clinton) in 2008, in contrast with prior progressive candidates.

The rest of the party poses a challenge for more progressive candidates, and it’s not just about this group’s moderate views.

Less engaged and less ideological voters tend to be cynical about politics. One might think cynicism would translate to support for outsider candidates, and it probably could against an establishment favorite with enough flaws. Instead, it has more often meant skepticism of ambitious and idealistic liberals and progressives who offer big promises with no record. It has meant an appreciation for well-known, battle-tested politicians who have been on their side or even delivered in the past. This election cycle, Mr. Biden might be the beneficiary of such sentiment.

This group’s lower levels of news consumption mean fewer opportunities for the activist-backed candidates to make their case. A majority of such voters might not even have an opinion about Ms. Ocasio-Cortez (over all, only around half of Democrats do in recent polls). Their weaker ideological predilections mean these voters are often less likely to buy the message, even if it reaches them.

Of course, the Democratic Party has moved to the left in recent years. It has moved far enough left that there’s plenty of room for a progressive candidate to win the nomination. It would be a mistake to dismiss Mr. Sanders’s chances of winning the nomination just because white progressives have generally fallen short in the past. The name recognition he earned in 2016 will be an asset that prior outsider candidates haven’t been able to count on, and so will his impressive small-donor fund-raising.