If an agreement is found over the week-end, the Greek Parliament is likely to vote on the deal on Sunday or Monday, and the Bundestag on Monday or Tuesday. We attach a 95% probability of approval in the Greek Parliament if a deal is presented to the vote, but possibly thanks to the support of some opposition parties (New Democracy, Potami or Pasok). If defections within the governing coalition were to be significant, it could open the door to a broader coalition/new elections in the coming months. As we wrote from the start, a final political clarification will probably be needed at some point."