Vinny Lingham has delivered a dose of reason to Bitcoin’s price moon gazers, noting the chances of a $1 million valuation are just 0.25%.

In a tweet Sunday, Lingham, who is known for his level-headed appraisals of Bitcoin’s price performance, agreed with comments from Present CEO Naval Ravikant that “fundamental analysis is impossible” for the virtual currency today.

Correct. Bitcoin currently is priced at 2.5% chance of being worth $100k or .25% chance of being worth $1m. https://t.co/U8QzUcXmCB — Vinny Lingham (@VinnyLingham) June 19, 2017

While 0.25% is already change in tone to predictions from Xapo’s Wences Casares that Bitcoin will cost $1 million within 10 years, the stakes hardly improve for $100,000, coming in relatively at just 2.5%.

Lingham had previously warned about the detrimental effect of rapid price rises on Bitcoin.

In a pre-ETF blog post post in February, the entrepreneur stated that if Bitcoin went “into the $3,000+ territory due to mania/short squeezes/media hype/FOMO and other triggers, then alarm bells will go off for me and we start approaching bubble territory where the Smart Money starts to leave.”

A holding pattern is meanwhile beginning to emerge for Bitcoin, which is once again hovering around the $2600 barrier.

Two cycles have seen $3000 approached and lost since the end of May, prices each time rebounding to current levels after significant but brief falls.