Dave Birkett

Detroit Free Press





Fast facts

When: 1 p.m. today.

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.

TV/radio: Fox (Channel 2 in Detroit), WXYT-FM (97.1).

Line: Patriots by 7.

Injury report

Lions

• Out: DT Nick Fairley (knee), G Larry Warford (knee).

• Questionable: RB Reggie Bush (ankle).

• Probable: RB Joique Bell (ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), DE Jason Jones (not injury related), TE Brandon Pettigrew (foot), WR Golden Tate (hip), T LaAdrian Waddle (knee).

Patriots

• Out: T Cameron Fleming (ankle, finger), DE Chandler Jones (hip).

• Questionable: T Marcus Cannon (hip), DT Dominique Easley (knee), S Nate Ebner (finger).

• Probable: QB Tom Brady (ankle), WR Julian Edelman (thigh).

Scouting report

Lions' run offense vs. Patriots' run defense

Joique Bell had his best rushing game of the season last week against Arizona, gaining 85 yards on 14 carries. Bell had some big runs, but he had too many carries of negative or no yards, and the Lions lost up front on most short-yardage downs.

Reggie Bush should be back this week to give the Lions an additional threat in the backfield, but teams don't fear him or the Lions' running game as a whole. The Lions are tied for 30th in the NFL in rushing at 79.8 yards per game.

The Patriots have a middle-of-the-pack run defense at 109.9 yards per game, but they're coming off their two best run-stuffing performances of the season. Vince Wilfork is the type of big defensive tackle that gives the Lions fits up front, and Dont'a Hightower is a dependable linebacker.

Edge: Patriots.

Lions' pass offense vs. Patriots' pass defense

The Lions struggled to throw last week against a good Cardinals secondary that has two top-tier cornerbacks and spent much of the game in a dime package. The Patriots aren't quite as deep, but they'll challenge the Lions with a good trio of corners in Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington.

Expect Revis to spend plenty of time covering Calvin Johnson in one of the day's best matchups. Golden Tate, the Lions' leading receiver, was targeted with only two passes last week, and the Lions won't make the mistake of minimizing his talents again.

Matthew Stafford doesn't need to match Tom Brady pass for pass, but he can't make any mistakes against a team tied for second in the NFL in turnover margin. DE Chandler Jones won't play for the Patriots because of a hip injury, so the Lions stand a decent chance of keeping Stafford upright.

Edge: Patriots.

Patriots' run offense vs. Lions' run defense

Jonas Gray, right, came out of nowhere to rush for 201 yards last week, but with Stevan Ridley out for the season, the Patriots are more complementary with their rushing game than anything. Gray, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen all should see time in the backfield today as coach Bill Belichick looks to create mismatches. The Lions have the best run defense in the NFL. They've allowed 68.8 rushing yards per game, fewest by any team since the 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers. They've also given up just three rushes of 20 or more yards this year and have one of the NFL's most dominant defensive lineman in Ndamukong Suh.

Edge: Lions.

Patriots' pass offense vs. Lions' pass defense

Tom Brady doesn't put up the same eye-popping stats he used to, but he's as good a quarterback as ever. He has 24 touchdowns and five interceptions this year, rarely takes sacks — just five in the Patriots' six-game winning streak — and has made his ordinary receiving corps look special at times.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski is a walking mismatch as his 53 catches for 734 yards and nine touchdowns would attest. Lions coach Jim Caldwell said Gronkowski must be covered with a linebacker or safety because he's so big and physical. The Patriots try to get the ball in Julian Edelman's hands a number of ways, and Vereen is a receiving threat out of the backfield.

The Lions have preached getting after Brady this week, hitting him and forcing him off his spot even if they don't get sacks. Suh and Ziggy Ansah will be a big part of that, especially with Nick Fairley out for a third straight game with a knee injury.

Edge: Patriots.

Special teams

Edelman doubles as a dangerous punt returner for the Patriots, and New England has one of the most reliable kickers in the game in Stephen Gostkowski. They're sound in their coverage units, though they've had one punt blocked and are netting only 38.7 yards per punt.

The Lions' season-long kicking woes are well documented, though Matt Prater said he's finally starting to get his rhythm back. Punter Sam Martin is a weapon for the Lions, and Jeremy Ross is solid if unspectacular in the return game, but the Lions have had too many special-teams penalties lately.

Edge: Patriots.

Overall

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL right now, and there's little reason to think their six-game winning streak is about to end. Brady is playing lights-out football, their defense is well-rounded, and they rarely lose at home.

For the Lions to pull the upset, they'll have to harass Brady into a turnover or two and take sterling care of the ball. Their defense is good enough to keep the game close, but they need better play from Stafford to jump-start their struggling offense.

Pick: Patriots 28, Lions 21.

More picks

Mitch Albom

• Patriots 23, Lions 10: I watched the Pats last Sunday. I watched the Lions last Sunday. Then I took 20 points off how many I thought the Pats would score, because I want Detroit to win. And I still came up with this.

Jeff Seidel

• Patriots 17, Lions 14: Stop me if you've heard this before. The defense will give the Lions a chance to win. But that offense will blow it again.

Drew Sharp

• Patriots 24, Lions 20: The Lions will play competitively with arguably the hottest football team around. But being "close enough" isn't enough for a team still trying to break through a ceiling of limited success.

Know the foe: New England Patriots

Coach: Bill Belichick (226-116 overall including playoffs, 189-71 with Patriots).

Key players: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Julian Edelman, CB Darrelle Revis, DT Vince Wilfork.

Last game: Beat the Indianapolis Colts, 42-20.

Last meeting: 2010: Patriots 45, Lions 24.

The buzz: After a rough September made some people question whether New England's reign as an NFL superpower was coming to an end, the Patriots have righted their ship with six straight wins and are the hottest team in the NFL. New England is averaging 40.5 points per game during that stretch, and Brady is playing MVP-caliber football. He has 24 touchdowns and five interceptions, and with Gronkowski back healthy, the Patriots have been nearly unstoppable. Edelman leads the way with 59 catches and, with running back Steven Ridley on injured reserve, Jonas Gray (Birmingham Detroit Country Day) came out of nowhere to rush for 201 yards and four touchdowns last week. Defensively, the Patriots have the personnel to match up with opponents in a number of ways. Wilfork is a load up front, Dont'a Hightower is having a fine year at linebacker, and Revis is still one of the best cover corners in the NFL.

Talking points

Points a' coming: The Lions' offense has been abysmal of late, but they'll have to score plenty to topple the NFL's second-most potent offense today. Last week, the Lions didn't reach the end zone for the first time in almost five years and have managed one first-half TD in the past four games. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has scaled back the playbook in hopes of jump-starting the offense. "Listen, this would be a lot harder if we were 3-7 ... we just have to get a little bit better and I think we're a very dangerous team as it is," he said. "We've had some good spurts, and I think in any kind of competitive industry, when you get knocked in the teeth a little bit, you can't let your confidence go down. You've got to keep your fighting spirit, and I think these guys, they're confident that we can go out and play good football, and I think it's coming."

Mega matchup: Calvin Johnson missed much of October with an ankle injury and was ineffective against Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson last week. Still, Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis told Boston reporters that Johnson is "a man amongst boys" and like a receiver from "an alternate (universe)." The two All-Pros should square off plenty today, as they have in two previous meetings. In 2010, Revis, then with the Jets, held Johnson to one catch. Last year, Johnson had seven catches for 115 yards against the Buccaneers, though Revis left the game early with a groin injury.

Gray matter: On the practice squad six weeks ago, Jonas Gray got his first real chance to be a lead back in the NFL last week, and the Detroit Country Day product delivered. Playing in his fourth career game, Gray had 201 yards and four TDs in the Patriots' win over the Colts. The Pats also signed LeGarrette Blount, who could have a big role today, especially after Gray overslept and missed practice Friday.

But Lions coach Jim Caldwell, who was offensive coordinator during Gray's short practice-squad stint with the Ravens, said Gray is not to be taken lightly. "You have to give credit to the young man," Caldwell said. "He did a tremendous job. He's tough and a hard-nosed guy, can get downhill, got good vision. We had him a little bit at Baltimore, and you could see he was eager, had great desire to play. He's playing well."

Last meeting

Nov. 25, 2010

Pats 45, Lions 24: Tom Brady threw for 341 yards, four TDs and had a perfect 158.3 passer rating on Thanksgiving in Detroit.

Contact Dave Birkett: dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.