Auckland is projected to be home to almost 40 per cent of the country's total population in 2038

New Zealand's Asian population is set to overtake the Maori population by 2038, according to projections released by Statistics New Zealand.



The entire country is projected to have increasing ethnic diversity over the next two decades.



Projections for how each community will look are in the table below.

While Maori, Asian, and Pacific populations will increase in nearly all regions and territorial authorities between 2013 and 2038, those identifying as "European or Other" (including New Zealander) will represent a decreasing share of people.

Nationally, the Maori population will make up nearly 20 per cent of the total population by 2038 - up from nearly 16 per cent in 2013.

The Asian population will increase from 12 per cent in 2013 to 21 per cent in 2038 and people of Asian ethnicity will be the biggest ethnic group in several parts of Auckland.

The Pacific population will also increase, from 8 per cent in 2013 to 11 per cent in 2038.

However, the 'European or Other' population will drop from 75 per cent in 2013 to 66 per cent in 2038.

Just 1 per cent of the country's population identified as Middle Eastern, Latin American, or African (MELAA) ethnicities in 2013, although this is expected to increase slightly. More than half of these people live in Auckland.

Despite the increases in diversity, ethnic populations in all areas are set to experience declining rates of population growth as their populations gradually age.

The subnational ethnic population projections give an indication of the future population usually living in New Zealand's 16 regional council areas, 67 territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas, for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: European or other (including New Zealander), Maori, Asian, and Pacific.

People can - and do - identify with more than one ethnicity, and people are included in each ethnic population they identify with. According to the projections, up to 18 per cent of New Zealand's population will identify with more than one of the four main ethnic groupings by 2038 - up from 11 per cent in 2013.

The projections are based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions.

AUCKLAND

New Zealand is a top-heavy country, with Auckland projected to be home to almost 40 per cent of the country's total population in 2038 compared with 34 per cent in 2013.

Minority ethnic groups are forecast to be in the majority in several local board areas by 2038, while Europeans will make up less than half of the city's forecast population of 2.12 million.

Almost two-thirds of the country's Asian population will continue to live in Auckland, and one in three people are likely to identify as Asian in 2038 - up from about one in four in 2013. The broad Asian population will likely be the largest group in the areas of Whau, Puketapapa, and Howick.

The Maori ethnic population is set to grow in all areas of Auckland, with a quarter of the Maori population living there in 2038.

The Pacific population will make up about 18 per cent of the Auckland population in 2038 - up from about 15 per cent in 2013. The broad Pacific group will be the largest group in Manurewa, and remain the largest in Mangere-Otahuhu.