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Teaching jobs are at risk and children’s education will suffer as schools across Wales face a massive funding gap of at least £57m, a leaked email to First Minister Carwyn Jones warns.

The email from Huw David, leader of Bridgend Council, which has been seen by WalesOnline, was also copied into to Minister for Children Huw Irranca-Davies and Debbie Wilcox, Leader of Newport City Council and Leader of Welsh Local government Association.

It follows publication of the nation's draft budget spending plans for 2019/20 and says all Labour council leaders have told Wales Finance Minister and Welsh Labour leader hopeful Mark Drakeford in a letter that "unfunded pressures" will mean job cuts in schools.

Separately Steve Thomas, chief executive of the WLGA, which represents all 22 councils in Wales, warned of an angry mood among directors of education across Wales about lack of money in what he described as “an intensely difficult situation” after eight years of austerity cuts.

Mr Thomas said the cuts could even threaten the capacity to deliver Wales’ much trailed new curriculum if teaching jobs are lost.

Cllr David’s email sent to the First Minister on October 8, warns: “The point all Labour Council leaders made in a letter to Mark Drakeford last week is that in very stark terms that the scale of these unfunded pressures means jobs loses (SIC).

“The £57m gap equates to a loss of 1,300 teachers or 2,400 teaching assistants and realistically will be a combination of both.

“At a meeting of education directors on Friday it seems many authorities will set flat cash budgets for schools (reflecting councils’ flat cash budgets) and will expect schools to absorb the pressures.

“Some have already stated publicly that they are considering cash cuts to school budgets because of the imperative to set balanced budgets and the acute pressure most authorities are also facing in social care which needs a major increase in funding because of growth in demand for service and unavoidable workforce inflationary pressures there too.

“Either way, the impact on schools, and children’s education is damaging, and i am deeply concerned that risks halting the progress that has been made in education in recent years.

“This of course, is not the only pressure that councils and schools face, but I focus on it because we talked about it on Friday morning and because schools are every council’s biggest budget.

“I also know how passionate and committed you are to improving educational outcomes for all children, but the reality of last week’s budget is that schools budgets will be cut unless major changes are made to the Welsh budget.

“As it stands one of the certain outcomes of the budget will be the impact on educational outcomes for children in Wales. There is opportunity to change that.”

(Image: PA)

Cllr David refused to comment on his email but Steve Thomas, WLGA chief executive, said the contents reflected a letter sent from Debbie Wilcox to Education Secretary Kirsty Williams on October 9 .

That letter, which has been tweeted out by the WLGA Mr Thomas, quotes the same figures and warnings of job losses as well as flagging up the pressure of increased teachers’ pension payments, which may or may not be funded by the Treasury. It warns some schools face budget cuts of as much as 5%.

Mr Thomas said “schools will be in a dire financial situation” this year unless more money is found.

Asked about the mood among directors of education and council leaders he added: “The mood is angry. They were hoping for a better outcome this year.

“We have had eight years of austerity and wanted to be in a position where we could invest in local services.

“I don’t think this threatens Wales’ new National Curriculum but what it could threaten is the capacity to deliver it. If money is not invested in schools we could end up losing teachers.

“It is an intensely difficult situation. The whole cuts process of the last eight years is unprecedented.”

His comments follow those in a tweet on October 9 where he put the blame squarely at the door of the Welsh rather than Whitehall Government.

His tweet says“After eight years of cuts where budgets have fallen by a 25%, Welsh Government had a real opportunity to end austerity in Wales. With £370m new monies from Westminster, an imaginative approach to funding preventative services was needed. Didn’t happen,” he tweeted after the Provisional Local Government Finance Settlement for 2019-20 was published last week.

A Welsh Government spokesman said: “We have worked hard, across the Welsh Government, to offer local government the best settlement possible in the current financial climate and have made further allocations to mitigate most of the reduction councils had been expecting following the final budget last year.

“The importance of education is reflected in an additional £15m allocated for schools and we are also directing all of the £23.5m announced by the UK Government to local authorities to fund the school teachers’ pay award. We will continue to prioritise school funding– helping to raise school standards and removing barriers to learning to support young people to reach their potential.

“The formal six week consultation for the provisional local government settlement has opened and we will continue discussions with local authorities over the coming weeks.”

(Image: Rob Browne)

This is the full text of the email sent to First Minister Carwyn Jones by Cllr Huw David on October 8

Dear Carwyn,

further to our meeting on Friday morning I wanted to share with you the inescapable workforce inflationary pressures that councils and schools face,

These unavoidable inflationary pressures were included in the WLGA’s recent publication, Fair and Sustainable Funding for Essential Local Services. This was recently shared with all Assembly Members and discussed also with Mark Drakeford and Alun Davies, as the relevant Cabinet Secretaries at the July Finance Sub Group meeting.

For some time, we have been making it clear that workforce pressures in 2019-20 are forcing local authorities towards a tipping point. The results of pay awards and changes in employer contributions for both the Teachers’ Pension Scheme and Local Government Pension Scheme have now been widely trailed, The current estimate of the national pressures on our schools budgets are set out here:

Teachers’ Pay Award £25m

Non teaching staff pay award £19m

Teachers’ pension (2016 SCAPE adjustment) £10m

Teachers’ pension (2018 SCAPE adjustment) £32m

LGPS Employer rates for non teaching staff £9m

Demographic pressures £14m

Total £109m

Education’s share of the reduction in the local government settlement is around £10m so the true sum that has to be found is £119m

You have to set that against that the “extras” for 109-20: the money you have received from the Treasury for teachers pay of £15m and the “additional” £15m in your budget narrative. That leaves a massive gap of £89m. If we’re lucky the Treasury may come up with the additional funding for 2018 SCAPE adjustments, that closes the gap to £57m.

The point all Labour Council leaders made in a letter to Mark Drakeford last week is that in very stark terms that the scale of these unfunded pressures means jobs loses (SIC).

The £57m gap equates to a loss of 1,300 teachers or 2,400 teaching assistants and realistically will be a combination of both.

At a meeting of Education directors on Friday it seems many authorities will set flat cash budgets for schools (reflecting councils’ flat cash budgets) and will expect schools to absorb the pressures. Some have already stated publicly that they are considering cash cuts to school budgets because of the imperative to set balanced budgets and the acute pressure most authorities are also facing in social care which needs a major increase in funding because of growth in demand for service and unavoidable workforce inflationary pressures there too.

Either way, the impact on schools, and children’s education is damaging, and i am deeply concerned that risks halting the progress that has been made in education in recent years.

This of course, is not the only pressure that councils and schools face, but I focus on it because we talked about it on Friday morning and because schools are every council’s biggest budget. I also know how passionate and committed you are to improving educational outcomes for all children, but the reality of last week’s budget is that schools budgets will be cut unless major changes are made to the welsh budget.

As it stands one of the certain outcomes of the budget will be the impact on educational outcomes for children in Wales. There is opportunity to change that.

Best wishes, Huw

Cc Cabinet Minister for Education and Regeneration

WLGA leader and spokesperson for education .

Assembly Member for Ogmore