In “Keys to Victory” we probe the smartest MMA minds to determine where and how big fights will be won and lost. Today, we’ve asked Strikeforce and UFC veteran Tim Kennedy to break down Robbie Lawler’s fight with Johny Hendricks at UFC 171.

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A new welterweight champion will be crowned Saturday at UFC 171 when Johny Hendricks (15-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC) and Robbie Lawler (22-9 MMA, 7-3 UFC) meet for the UFC’s vacant title at 170 pounds. It’s the first time in six years the belt has been up for grabs following now-former champ George St-Pierre’s decision to vacate the title and step away from the sport. The winner faces a crowded field of contenders, four of whom are fighting on the event’s preliminary-card: Carlos Condit, Tyron Woodley, Jake Shields and Hector Lombard.

For Hendricks, who believes the winner of Saturday’s bout will meet either Condit or Woodley, it’s a second chance to win UFC gold after losing a razor-thin split-decision to the former champ this past November at UFC 167. Lawler, meanwhile, gets his first chance to win a UFC belt after coming one fight away from a shot in his first run in the promotion and three straight wins in his current run.

The title fight pairs two-heavy handed southpaw strikers with 26 knockouts between them, though the bulk of those come from the resume of Lawler, who is widely thought to be one of the most powerful punchers in the sport. At the same time, the former EliteXC champ’s ground game has nowhere near the pedigree of Hendricks, who’s a multi-time NCAA Division I wrestling champ. While Lawler has cultivated a strong counter-wrestling game, his ability to deal with Hendricks on the mat is one of the fight’s biggest X-factors.

Tim Kennedy (17-4 MMA, 2-0 UFC), who next meets Michael Bisping (24-5 MMA, 14-5 UFC) in the headliner of next month’s The Ultimate Fighter Nations Finale, beat Lawler under the now-defunct Strikeforce banner in 2011, winning a unanimous decision after three rounds. Of course, he nearly lost consciousness doing so when he took an uppercut that, he said, “rearranged my nose a bit.” Yet he had very specific ideas of how Hendricks should proceed to win the day in key areas of the fight and secure the belt.

“I was on him, as Greg Jackson said, like napalm,” Kennedy said. “That was the gameplan, to pressure forward and give no space the entire fight, and keep my head off-center during exchanges. It doesn’t matter who you are, what your nickname is, whether you’re built like a truck or have a fantastic beard. You stand in front of Robbie Lawler, and you’re going to be put to sleep. That doesn’t change here.”

But he added that if Hendricks isn’t successful, he might try his hand at 170 pounds to recreate his previous success against Lawler.

When it comes to avoiding the powerful strikes Lawler lands on his opponents, space obviously is a key area of the fight. Kennedy said Lawler isn’t the kind of opponent to simply wade forward and slug. Instead, he employs a lazy right jab to “corral” foes into the cage, where he can explode with his power left hand and a cross knee. “He has a really nasty hook, so it’s important for Johny to not be driven one direction or another by Robbie’s striking,” Kennedy said.

Kennedy notes that the pressure he exerted against Lawler wasn’t merely about forward motion, but making the heavy puncher play a guessing game with the range of the fight. Rather than approach at one level, he said, the goal was to constantly fake level changes so Lawler didn’t know when or if a takedown attempt was on the way.

“I did take him down a few times, and I was on top of him the entire fight, but in our total volume of strikes, I landed more punches than he did on our feet,” Kennedy said. “It was because he was so tentative of the shot, and I think Johny needs to have a lot of level changes, in and out, mixing it up, with power punches to be able to land strikes. I think Johny could knock out Robbie, but to do so, Robbie has to be scared of the takedown.”

Of course, making the veteran scared of being taken to the mat was no easy feat, as Kennedy noted Lawler’s excellent counter-wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills. That points to an extended slugfest where either man could fall.

How was it that Kennedy, a fighter without a particularly spectacular wrestling resume, was able to take Lawler down on 10 occasions over three rounds? As with his up-and-down approach on the feet, Kennedy said he strung together different types of takedowns to get Lawler off balance and take him to the mat. Chain wrestling, as its known, links a series of techniques – double-leg takedown to single-leg to bodylock to inside trip, for instance – that ups a fighter’s success rate when he wants to take the action south.

“Robbie is really, really good defensively in takedowns, so instead of hitting that one that’s going to put him on his back, you have to put together a whole bunch of different takedowns,” Kennedy said. “Once we got there, the whole time I fought for inside control and bicep control, goosenecked on his wrists, and clinched on the ground. I was always inside, which prevented him from being able to get his hips away.”

Going into a fight with a guy who could concuss you with a touch of his fist is a daunting task for most fighters, let alone normal humans. But embracing the idea that you’ll be hit is a mental adjustment Hendricks needs to make, according to Kennedy.

“If you’re so scared he’s going to hit you, he’s going to hit you,” Kennedy said. “Not with reckless abandon, but you have to go in there with the mindset that you can dominate him, and then you can dominate him. If you don’t, he’ll put you to sleep. If you go in there and be like, ‘I’m going to stay away from his punches, look for the opportunity to take him down,’ it’s going to be boring, and you’ll probably get knocked out. If you go in there with the plan that you’re going to hit him with big punches or put him on his back with takedowns, you can win that fight.”

For the latest on UFC 171, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of the site.

Also, check out welterweight contender Tyron Woodley, as he discusses how he thinks the Lawler-Hendricks fight will play out.