Yesterday I stumbled across a trade proposal involving Spencer ‘Hoss’ Hawes for LaMarcus Aldridge. The move was met with nearly universal approval from the peanut gallery, who viewed it as a classic case of ‘selling high’. Selling Hawes, however, is a terrible move, as he’s the most complete fantasy center in the NBA. If anything you should be buying in while people still see him as a ‘sell high’ candidate; instead of the elite, uniquely skilled, big man he is.

As always, let’s start with the numbers:

Spencer Hawes: 52%fg, 72%ft, 1.9 3ptm, 16pts, 10.6rbds, 3.2asts, 0.7stls, 2 blks, 2.8 to

LaMarcus Aldridge: 48%fg, 67%ft, 0 3ptm, 21.3 pts, 8.8 rbds, 2.5asts, 0.9stls, 0.9blks, 2.1 to

Some initial observations:

Categorical marginal analysis favors Spencer Hawes 6-3; +3 on the margin.

If you’re smart and automatically punt turnovers Hawes’s marginal advantage is effectively +4.

Although Aldridge scores more, points can usually be found inexpensively all season.

Hoss blocks twice as many shots. If you’ve ever read this blog before, you know blocked shots are arguably the most valuable statistic in 9 cat formats.

Hoss has been on fire lately, giving owners top 10 overall production from a guy who was likely acquired late in the draft (10th rounder in my league). That’s some serious ROI. Aldridge, on the other hand, is giving owners exactly what they paid for: all-star production. LaMarcus is a monster with a damn impressive offensive repertoire; given their histories you’ve got to believe that Aldridge will eventually start outproducing Hawes, right?

Maybe not, actually.



Hawes presently accounts for 23% of the 76er’s nightly rebounds and a smooth 38% of their blocked shots. Whenever Hoss sits, the Sixers lose a ton of production. It’s tempting to say his numbers will regress back towards the mean, but that would require some sort of confidence in the rest of Philly’s frontcourt to pick up that slack. To put this in perspective, Aldridge is responsible for 20% of Portland’s rebounds and 20% of their blocks. Hawes means more to the Sixers than Aldridge means to the Blazers. Hawes leads all NBA centers with 3.2 assist per game. Demarcus Cousins is 9th on this list at 1.3 per game. Assuming a 3 game week, that extrapolates out to 9.6 against 3.9. Ever lost by a few assists? Hoss is shooting 50% from deep, draining 2 threes per game, production on par with JJ Redick (2 3ptm @ 36%), Lebron (1.8 3ptm @50%), and Iggy (1.9 3ptm @ 47%). In fact, the only more productive big man from outside is Kevin Love (2.3 3ptm @ 36%). Hawes provides a comparative advantage here, he’s the most efficient deep threat among NBA bigs. At least until Ryan Anderson comes back. Hawes’s free throw percentage has increased every season (up from 65% in ’07), except for 2010 when he moved from Sacramento to Philly. He shot 78% from the line last year and could realistically approach 80% this season. Hawes is playing 33 mpg this season; his minutes have steadily increased since 2010 when he played 21mpg. If you really think the Sixers are about to cut into any of his minutes for the likes of alleged back up center ‘Daniel Orton’ or asterisk Kwame Brown, its time for a tolerance break from PCP.

In fantasy football circles people will often recommend that you start your studs; my advice today — ride your Hoss. Few other 7 foot tall homo sapiens can fill up a stat sheet like Hawes, and they’re basically all off the draft board midway through the second round. Now, I’m not trying to knock Aldridge; in fact, LaMarcus is one of my favorite players to watch. All I’m saying is that marginal gains of +3 or +4 should almost always be exploited. Nobody can afford to give up the potentially most complete center in the world, not even for LaMarcus Aldridge.

(ps: Kevin Love is probably a the most complete big man in the league, but he’s really a PF.)