Six factors that might decide one of the nation's most important and contentious congressional races

Scott Wartman | Cincinnati Enquirer

Show Caption Hide Caption First Congressional District race in 30 seconds Who are Steve Chabot and Aftab Pureval

Editors' note: The location of the fundraiser for Aftab Pureval was in College Hill. A previous version of the story had the incorrect location.

The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives could get settled here.

Among the forest of church steeples in the neighborhoods of Cincinnati’s West Side and the farms and strip malls of suburban Warren County, one of the fiercest congressional battles in the nation is being waged. Democrats across the country have set their sights on veteran Republican Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Westwood.

Experts, such as Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, see this as a crucial opportunity for the Democrats as they try to retake the House.

Chabot knows he’s in for what might be his toughest race he's had in his 25-year career in Congress.

"My campaign is gearing up for a tough fight," Chabot wrote in his blog in March, denying rumors that he's retiring. "But I'm confident that with your help, we'll prevail."

Republican congressman from Ohio says the “jury is still out” on Trump’s young presidency Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot on the 100 day mark of Donald Trump’s presidency. Video by Jack Gruber, USA TODAY

The Democrats’ candidate is 35-year-old wunderkind, Aftab Pureval. He surprised the political establishment in 2016 to become the first Democratic Hamilton County Clerk of Courts in a century when he upset a veteran politician from a well-known political family.

Here are the top six factors in the next four months that could decide this region’s most contentious race:

All eyes on Warren County

It's still an uphill battle for Pureval and the Democrats. And Warren County looms like Everest.

Trump won Warren County with 66 percent of the vote. Democrats acknowledge they're outnumbered three-to-one in the county.

Chabot thanked Republicans for Warren County in March.

"Thanks to great state representation, Warren County came into my district," Chabot told 600 Republicans as they dined in a ballroom at Music Hall in March. "I love the people of Hamilton County. And I love the people of Warren County."

The Republican-controlled General Assembly moved the heavily Republican County into Chabot's district in 2012 when they redrew the boundary lines after the latest U.S. Census.

The high number of Republicans still has most political prognosticators characterizing the district as "leaning Republican." But that’s an upgrade for the Democrats from “likely Republican” at the start of the race.

Winning the 1st Congressional District for Aftab Pureval won't be as easy as when he won Hamilton County in 2016, said Jane Timken, chairwoman of the Ohio Republican Party.

"The question is whether Aftab's success in Hamilton County will translate throughout the district," Timken said. "Steve is well prepared and hard working."

Pureval said he's visiting Warren County three to four times a week.

Democrats in Warren County believe they can muster 35-40 percent of the vote for Pureval. That should be enough to put him over the top districtwide, said Bethe Goldenfield, chairwoman of the Warren County Democrats.

Based on the rallies and parades, she said she's hopeful. They had 150 Democrats turn out for the Fourth of July Parade in Lebanon, she said. Normally they'd get a couple dozen.

"I’ve been involved with the Democrats here since 2004," Goldenfield said. "Based on what I’ve seen, Chabot needs to be worried."

A message to the Warren County Republicans wasn't returned.

Abortion still a key issue for Chabot. Is it still important to the West Side?

Conventional thought dictates if you’re a politician running on the West Side of Cincinnati, you have to oppose abortion.

Previous Democrats said they were "pro-life." Not Pureval, who said he doesn't think abortion will be a top issue in 2018. Chabot begs to differ.

Chabot has made an anti-abortion platform the cornerstone of his 22-year career in Congress, sponsoring the 2013 legislation that banned partial-birth abortions. The only Democrat to beat Chabot, Steve Driehaus in 2008, also opposed abortion.

Indian Hill resident Martin Haskell, nationally known for once performing so-called "partial-birth abortions," gave the maximum $2,700 donation to Pureval ahead of this month's primary.

Chabot has made an effort to point out Pureval's abortion record frequently in blog posts. He's slammed a photo of Pureval and Planned Parenthood's then-CEO Cecile Richards where Pureval called Richards a "personal hero of mine."

“My opponent this time around, Aftab Pureval, is probably the most extreme pro-abortion candidate I’ve ever faced,” Chabot wrote on his blog Wednesday.

Pureval would rather talk about health care than abortion.

He acknowledges he’s for abortion rights, though without saying the word abortion.

“I don’t believe in the federal government dictating and stepping in between a woman and her health decisions,” Pureval said. “They’re settled laws.”

None of the voters he’s talked to in the 1st Congressional District have mentioned abortion to him, he said. Health care is the No. 1 issue, he said.

As for the residents on Cincinnati's West Side, abortion might not be the top issue it once was.

“I think it has diminished,” said Pete Witte, a Republican and Price Hill resident known as the unofficial mayor of Price Hill. “The population most hardcore on that issue has aged out and moved out of Hamilton County. It is not the issue it once was.”

Sales tax could bring out Republicans

If a petition being gathered by Republicans succeeds, that might spell bad news for Pureval.

Republicans and anti-tax crusaders are gathering signatures against a sales tax increase approved by the Democrat-controlled Hamilton County Board of Commissioners. If successful, the 0.2 percentage point increase would go on the November ballot.

This might give Republicans additional reasons to go to the ballot box in November. The petitions are due at 4 p.m. Wednesday. Backers of the effort to put the sales tax on the ballot need 23,000 signatures.

Other tax increases that might be on the ballot include one for children’s services and the Southwest Ohio Regional Transit Authority.

Will race be a factor?

Pureval has made an effort to rally the black community on Cincinnati's West Side.

At a bed in breakfast in College Hill on Monday, 140 black people cheered Pureval for a rally dubbed "African-Americans for Aftab."

For a Republican, Chabot has an ethnically diverse Congressional district, according to political experts, such as Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

That could work to Pureval’s advantage. Pureval’s father was a Sikh from India and his mother was a refugee from Tibet.

Redistricting in 2012 lessened the diversity a little, but the district still has a significant chunk of non-white residents.

The United States Census in 2016 showed 30 percent of the district, about 220,000 people, are minorities with 22 percent of the district being black.

When Democrats beat Chabot in 2008, 33 percent of the First Congressional District was in a minority group, about 207,000 people, and 29 percent of the district was black.

Both campaigns downplayed race as a factor.

Chabot was unavailable for an interview last week and referred questions to campaign spokesman Cody Rizzuto. Rizzuto said the black community is an important part of the district. He said he didn’t know what impact that would play.

When asked what role the ethnic diversity of the district would play in the race, Pureval switched the topic back to health care.

“I don’t subscribe to identity politics,” Pureval said. “Across the district, whether in Bond Hill or Cheviot, voters want the same thing. The No. 1 issue is access to affordable health care.”

Democrats all-in on health care this year

Democrats have bet the House on health care. Polls have shown they may be right.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal in June showed poll in June found health care as the most important issue and the Democrats held the advantage. Of the 38 percent who put health care as the No. 1 or No. 2 issue, 67 percent said they’d prefer to see Democrats in control after the midterms.

That’s why Pureval on July 5 visited Cincinnati State's Bethesda School of Nursing.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rich Cordray was also there, as were two families suffering from many serious medical issues. As they stood among the hospital beds and medical mannequins used to train nursing students, they slammed Chabot for his opposition to the Affordable Care Act.

Colleen Bowman, of Springboro, brought her two children, Jude, 11, who suffers from a neurological condition, and Elle Bowman, 14, who suffered nerve damage to one eye when she had a melanoma removed.

The Affordable Care Act took away any concerns she had of being denied coverage for pre-existing conditions, Bowman said.

“I thought those worries were all over,” Bowman said. “Until last year when I watched Steve Chabot cheer in the (White House) rose garden over taking protections away from my child.”

How did Chabot vote on health care?

Chabot last May voted for the Republican replacement of Obamacare, the American Health Care Act, also known as Trumpcare. The bill didn’t become law, but if it did, it would have weakened the pre-existing conditions protection. It would have allowed states to seek a waiver for insurance companies to charge people with pre-existing conditions higher premiums than other consumers. At the last minute, the GOP added an extra $8 billion to help patients with pre-existing conditions.

Chabot also voted for the health care reform as part of the tax package that did pass in December 2017. That legislation kept the ban on insurers denying pre-existing conditions but also eliminated the individual mandate requiring people to have insurance coverage or face a tax penalty.

“It’s a blatant lie to say he’s not for protecting people with pre-existing conditions,” Rizzuto said.

The election is still about Trump

The other issue that rivals health care in terms of importance is Trump, himself.

Love or hate of the president will motivate many voters. . Almost half of the respondents to an Enquirer/Suffolk University poll in June, 49 percent, wanted their vote in November to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation.

In the 1st District, Chabot’s campaign sees Trump as a positive.

“The Dems overplayed their hand when it comes to Trump,” Rizzuto said. “Trump is producing results. The economy is strong. Trump has his quirks, but the No. 1 thing is the tax cuts.”

It doesn't appear Pureval sees Trump's unpopularity as helping him.

Pureval dismissed Trump as a factor.

“I’m not running against Donald Trump,” Pureval said. “I’m running against Steve Chabot.”