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The new program will be geared to low- to middle-income families. Funding will be clawed back for families earning as little as $55,000 a year, a figure confirmed Tuesday by The Canadian Press.

There is much that is unknown about the childhood budget, which is set to come into effect on April 1. That includes how the needs-tested formula works — it is believed that families with net incomes over $250,000 will get nothing, for example, even though therapy can cost over $80,000 a year.

There are also no details about when families will receive funding, how much they will receive, what they can spend it on and how reimbursement will work.

Photo by MORRIS LAMONT / MORRIS LAMONT

Knowing the details is important for both taxpayers and parents, said Moffatt. “It’s a weird way to do public policy. We don’t know how the transition will work.”

When Moffatt did his analysis he plugged in a “generous” set of parameters for how much each child will receive and a 90-per-cent utilization rate for the new program. According to this scenario, if there are about 8,300 children in the current program receiving service, with another 23,000 on waiting lists, at 90 per cent utilization, about 31,000 children will be in the program.

The children will also receive a variable amount of funding, depending on their ages and their parents’ income. Those under six would receive as much as $20,000 a year, while those between six and 18 would get as much as $5,000 a year. Assuming there are 12,000 in the five-and-under group and 20,000 in the older group, the “childhood budget” will cost about $245 million a year, about $100 million less than his estimate of about $350 million for the Ontario Autism Program.