ST. CLOUD — On Friday, USA Today published a report that named St. Cloud as Minnesota's "worst city to live in," a conclusion 24/7 Wall Street reached by examining data from the U.S. Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey, the FBI's 2016 Uniform Crime Report and other federal reports.

But given their methodology — which examined only conditions within the limits of St. Cloud city proper — and St. Cloud's context within a tight cluster of other cities, is the conclusion flawed?

The methodology 'makes (his) teeth hurt'

King Banaian, Dean of the School of Public Affairs and former professor of economics at St. Cloud State University, said the 24/7 Wall Street report "makes (his) teeth hurt."

"I don't feel like this is a particularly good report," he said. "The result is something that really isn't well thought-out social science."

The 24/7 Wall Street report judged cities' livability on a number of criteria, including violent crime rates, economic factors, education, environment, health, housing, infrastructure and leisure. In many cases, a city's results in one or more of those categories was also compared to state or national averages.

But St. Cloud is different from many other cities that made the list in that its connected suburbs have a population two-thirds of that of the city itself — a powerful social and economic force. They are inextricably connected to the city proper, with little to no distance between town boundaries, physical and otherwise.

Consider Crossroads Center: Stand in the parking lot nearest to Macy's — most of it, anyway — and you're in Waite Park, but head over to the SCHEELS parking area? Welcome to St. Cloud. Now cross the street. Hello again, Waite Park.

"City data just doesn't really tell you much of what's happening in a region," Banaian said.

"I don't understand any of these types of studies that use city data. Ignoring Sartell and Sauk Rapids, they're a key part to understanding this community," Banaian said.

However, the U.S. Census Bureau has long had a system to avoid this kind of statistical confusion.

According to the Census Bureau, the development of a consistent definition for metropolitan areas "arose from the common observation that the physical extent of a large urban concentration often overflows the official limits of any single city."

Since the 1950s, the bureau has used the concept of a metropolitan statistical area, or MSA, to standardize the statistical data produced and analyzed for regions that contain "a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities that have a high degree of economic and social integration with that core."

But the St. Cloud MSA, which includes Stearns and Benton counties, was not the statistical area from which 24/7 Wall Street pulled its data. Instead, they used census data specific to St. Cloud city proper.

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A better picture with a bigger picture

The report notes that St. Cloud is the only city in Minnesota that is losing residents faster than it is attracting them, indicating that "in the last five years, the (St. Cloud's) population contracted by 1.0 percent."

During the same period, St. Cloud's surrounding cities of Sartell, Sauk Rapids and Waite Park — all within reach of St. Cloud by crossing a street — saw population growth of 9 percent, 5.7 percent, and 3.6 percent respectively, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Census Bureau estimates from March indicated that the St. Cloud MSA's population is growing at the same rate as the state, experiencing growth of about 5 percent in the past eight years. For context, that is the same rate as the Rochester MSA, and 1 percent ahead of the Mankato-North Mankato MSA.

The St. Cloud MSA includes St. Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Waite Park, St. Joseph and Sartell, along with a number of other cities with fewer than 5,000 inhabitants, providing a larger — and more thorough — picture of the socioeconomic state of the area.

That said, MSA data does not provide a complete picture of the area: The St. Cloud MSA does not include Sherburne County, which means that the portion of St. Cloud east of the Mississippi and south of Minnesota Highway 23 is not included.

Context is key

Ultimately, Banaian said one key flaw in the 24/7 Wall Street report is a lack of context.

The report considered all U.S. cities with populations of 65,000 or more residents in 2016, which means the majority of the data set for Minnesota was centered around the Twin Cities.

"If you're just grabbing data out of the ACS without spending the time thinking about, 'Well, where are these cities?' you'd grab Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the nearest suburbs and say, 'That's what seven cities in the state of Minnesota look like,'" he said. "Well, no! They all share the same data for a lot of this."

Without contextual consideration of how the Twin Cities influence factors like housing costs, median family income, and poverty rates, the methodology behind the 24/7 Wall Street report begins to fall apart.

"To me, it's sort of the Twin Cities versus everyone else," Banaian said. "When you put it that way, living within that data set, yes, there is a way to construct it that would put St. Cloud at the bottom of the list. But that way is certainly not the best way for what they're trying to accomplish."

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Is there a problem?

Banaian posits that there's actually a bigger question begged by the census data, once St. Cloud's surrounding cities are taken into consideration.

"If you say St. Cloud, the area, is doing better than St. Cloud, the city, what's happening in St. Cloud that's not happening elsewhere?" he said.

One possible explanation: Our school district situation.

"You have one school district, and potentially two school districts, that aren't having open enrollment in their city," Banaian said. "So that could motivate people to move to one of the other area school districts, and out of St. Cloud."

Another factor? Where the building is happening.

Banaian said that, in years past, more home building was happening in areas like Sartell than in St. Cloud, making those areas more attractive to families. But winds of change, he said, are starting to blow.

"Now, those homes in the St. Cloud area are starting to become more attractive," Banaian said, citing the development of the new Tech High School in south St. Cloud as a motivator.

But in reality, Banaian said, it is far more likely that the 24/7 Wall Street report's negative conclusions on St. Cloud's livability are a result of poor data practices.

"'Wonky' is a good word for it. It gives social science and data analytics kind of a bad name," he said, laughing.

"If I was teaching, I would probably trot this thing in to my next class meeting and say something to the effect of, 'Look at this survey. Read it, look at it analytically, and tell then tell me honestly: Do you think St. Cloud is the worst place to live in Minnesota?'"

Follow Alyssa Zaczek on Twitter: @sctimesalyssa, email her at azaczek@stcloudtimes.com, or call her at (320) 255-8761.