It’s an understatement to say that these playoffs haven’t been going as well for DeMar DeRozan as anyone associated with the Toronto Raptors had hoped. He simply could not get his shot to fall in Game 1, but afterwards told reporters, “We’re not panicking. We understand we just played bad.” And also: “I’m pretty sure I won’t go 5-for-19 again.”

And he was right. He went 5-for-18 in Game 2.

Though the Raptors walked off their home floor with a win, DeRozan again failed to find the bottom of the net at even a mediocre clip, didn’t get to the line a single time, and watched the fourth quarter from the bench as his teammates put away the Pacers.

His performance so far begs the question: Is this just a poorly timed slump, or part of a withering playoff trend that affects everything from his team’s ceiling this post-season to his pending free agency this off-season? It’s a small sample so far, but how do DeRozan’s 2015–16 numbers compare to his playoff performances of the past?

TAKING IT ONE GAME AT A TIME

Opp MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST TOV PTS BRK, Gm 1 (L) 37:05:00 3 13 0.231 0 4 0.000 8 8 1.000 2 1 3 14 BRK, Gm 2 (W) 38:15:00 9 21 0.429 0 2 0.000 12 14 0.857 3 2 6 30 BRK, Gm 3 (L) 39:22:00 8 22 0.364 1 4 0.250 13 15 0.867 5 5 3 30 BRK, Gm 4 (W) 42:53:00 7 19 0.368 1 1 1.000 9 11 0.818 5 2 1 24 BRK, Gm 5 (W) 39:17:00 5 12 0.417 1 2 0.500 12 13 0.923 6 5 2 23 BRK, Gm 6 (L) 40:10:00 8 18 0.444 2 3 0.667 10 11 0.909 6 4 1 28 BRK, Gm 7 (L) 45:05:00 5 12 0.417 1 2 0.500 7 7 1.000 2 6 2 18 WAS, Gm 1 (L) 42:55:00 6 20 0.300 0 1 0.000 3 5 0.600 11 6 3 15 WAS, Gm 2 (L) 40:46:00 9 18 0.500 0 1 0.000 2 3 0.667 4 7 3 20 WAS, Gm 3 (L) 41:26:00 11 29 0.379 3 6 0.500 7 7 1.000 6 6 1 32 WAS, Gm 4 (L) 33:33:00 6 13 0.462 0 0 0.000 2 2 1.000 4 4 3 14 IND, Gm 1 (L) 36:44:00 5 19 0.263 0 3 0.000 4 6 0.667 2 4 3 14 IND, Gm 2 (W) 30:34:00 5 18 0.278 0 2 0.000 0 0 4 2 2 10 AVG 39:05:00 6.7 18.0 0.372 0.7 2.4 0.290 6.8 7.8 0.873 4.6 4.2 2.5 20.9

First things first: DeRozan’s poor shooting goes well beyond this post-season. Even before the start of the Pacers series, his career playoff FG% was just .391, and on the whole he’s taken far too many shots for too little reward.

Reg. season FG% Playoffs FG% Diff 2013–14 0.429 0.385 -0.044 2014–15 0.413 0.400 -0.013 2015–16 0.446 0.270 -0.176

But: If you’re looking for counterpoints to any kind of “DeRozan has always been terrible in the post-season” argument, you don’t have to look very far.

While he’s shot poorly in past years, he’s never shot this poorly two games in a row, let alone three. So he’s shown an ability to bounce back in the past, and expecting him to do so to some degree Thursday is a safe bet.

Also, contrary to popular belief, he has been able to get to the line in the playoffs, particularly in the Brooklyn series when he earned double-digit free-throw attempts five times. His rebounding and assist numbers have also been good, with 4.6 boards and 4.2 assists per game in the playoffs to date.

On the backs of those peripheral stats, he had an 18.2 player efficiency rating in the 2013–14 playoffs (league average is always 15) and a 15.7 figure in 2014–15. In two games this season, thanks in part to yet another poor showing in a Game 1, he’s sitting at 1.8.

And that leads us to our next area of interest:

GAME 1 WOES

Those with a weak stomach should look away. Here are DeRozan’s Game 1 stats from each of the past three seasons broken out on their own chart:

Opp MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST TOV PTS BRK 37:05:00 3 13 0.231 0 4 0.000 8 8 1.000 2 1 3 14 WAS 42:55:00 6 20 0.300 0 1 0.000 3 5 0.600 11 6 3 15 IND 36:44:00 5 19 0.263 0 3 0.000 4 6 0.667 2 4 3 14 AVG 38:54:40 4.7 17.3 0.269 0.0 2.7 0.000 5.0 6.3 0.789 5.0 3.7 3.0 14.3

There’s no way around this: DeRozan has been ubiquitously awful in series starters to date. And that’s where the team’s sloughing off of poor shooting performances, particularly after Game 1, start to break down. This team—and particularly their top scorer—does not transition well to the post-season, whether due to nerves or poor preparation.

GAME 3… CROWS?

If I’m going to isolate DeRozan’s record in Game 1s, I should at least give him the benefit of pulling out his record in road Game 3s—which is a whole lot better.

Opp MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST TOV PTS BRK 39:22:00 8 22 0.364 1 4 0.250 13 15 0.867 5 5 3 30 WAS 41:26:00 11 29 0.379 3 6 0.500 7 7 1.000 6 6 1 32 AVG 40:24:00 9.5 25.5 0.373 2.0 5.0 0.400 10.0 11.0 0.909 5.5 5.5 2 31.0

The points-per-game total jumps off the screen, but again the FG% isn’t great, and the FGA totals make it clear that DeRozan was pressing in both games. Also, the team’s record in these games (0-2, for those keeping score) has been less than desirable.

That said, he has gotten to the line at a good clip, not letting the opposing team’s fans or building dictate his aggressiveness, and supplemented the inefficient scoring with boards and assists while protecting the ball.

DeRozan and the Raptors collectively need to figure out how to get him some different looks in Game 3 and moving forward. But at the end of the day, if this small sample is any indication of how he’ll play—and how well he’ll play—on Thursday night in Indiana, Raptors fans will gladly take it over what they’ve seen from him so far in 2016.

In the latest podcast, the guys go deep on Games 1 and 2.

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