Houston's heralded bus system redesign - garnering kudos from local riders and transit supporters around the country - is running into the reality that nothing can boost transit when fewer people are riding to work.

When the Metropolitan Transit Authority revamped its bus system in August 2015, officials said it would boost ridership by 20 percent in two years. However, transit use in Houston has been declining.

In November, fewer people boarded Metro buses, hopped on trains and commuted to work via the park-and-ride system. When all types of transit except service for the elderly and disabled are considered, Metro handled 13,625 fewer trips daily, a 4.6 percent decline last month, according to figures released last week. Commuter bus ridership has plunged by more than 10 percent each of the last two months.

Now likely unable to reach their predicted ridership growth, which would have been unprecedented in the history of Houston mass transit, Metro officials concede more refinement is needed to gain riders on buses and trains.

By the numbers By the numbers 20% Increase Metro hoped to achieve within two years of revamping its bus system in August 2015. 4.6% Decline in Metro ridership in November, excluding transit service for the elderly and disabled. 11.8% Decline in daily commuter bus ridership year-over-year in November of this year compared to November 2015.

Read More

They blame the declining ridership on fewer oil and gas industry jobs in the area and the transition of many jobs away from downtown Houston. Though the job cuts have been evident in the region's economic outlook for months, the switch to the new bus system last year might have hidden the negative effect of fewer daily commuters.

"What I think we are seeing is the unemployment rate has had a real effect on ridership and it is just now exhibiting in our numbers," Arthur Smiley, Metro's chief financial officer, said.

After peaking at 5.8 percent in July and August, the Houston region's unemployment rate dropped slightly to 5.7 percent in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For October, the bureau released a preliminary estimate that unemployment fell to 5.1 percent. In its midyear report, Transwestern estimated more than half of the region's 26,200 job losses were in the energy sector.

Based on preliminary reports by the Texas Workforce Commission, November employment in the Houston area increased by 16,100 jobs, taking unemployment down to 4.9 percent, only 0.1 percent higher than November 2015.

Metro CEO Tom Lambert said all the reasons fewer people are riding buses or trains need to be understood.

"I'm not too overly hesitant to say we need to know what the realities are," Lambert said, even if the feedback forces Metro to shift service. "The opportunity presents itself to be adaptable."

Park-and-ride slides

Transit trip declines are widespread across the Houston system, though the biggest drops have come in park-and-ride use to downtown - used mostly by professionals to commute to work.

Tony Bergman, 43, said two of his coworkers at an engineering firm that deals specifically with oil and gas companies were laid off in March, both of whom took the bus.

"I see a lot fewer people," Bergman said of his West Belfort park-and-ride lot. "Every time someone announced (layoffs) a few more faces would be missing."

Among park-and-ride routes no region of the Houston area is spared. The largest decreases in daily use - about 25 percent - occurred on the Monroe route that starts near Hobby Airport, the Kingsland route that connects western Houston to downtown and the Towsen park and ride just south of Kingwood.

Commuter bus use fluctuated with declines and increases in 2015 and early 2016, based on year-over-year comparisons. In April, however, park-and-ride trips fell by 7.1 percent and has kept falling. In October, daily commuter bus ridership was 12.7 percent below October 2015. Last month, use was down 11.8 percent compared to November 2015.

Kurt Luhrsen, Metro's vice president of planning, said fewer commuters has caused effects across the entire transit system. For example, workers who rode park-and-ride buses downtown also hopped on the light rail to go to lunch and to attend meetings outside the central business district.

As park-and-ride service use dipped, so did use of Metro's three light rail lines. The decline in train riders, however, was not as significant as the drop in park-and-ride use.

Smiley, during a discussion last week with Metro board members, focused on the bright side of what was a gloomy Metro ridership analysis.

"In November, things weren't quite as bad the prior month," he said. "It is quite possible we should see some improvement in future months."

It's a marked contrast in tone from August of last year, when Metro officials lauded increases in ridership as proof the new revised bus system was working.

"It's working exactly as it is was intended," Metro board member Christof Spieler said then. "It's simply easier and more convenient to ride a bus in Houston."

Weekend transit use remains a bright spot. It has increased as weekday bus and train trips declined. Riders have said the change to more frequent service on Saturdays and Sundays makes it easier for people working on weekends to get to their jobs, while giving others more freedom for personal trips such as routine errands and other regional travel.

Regionwide reduction

Metro officials said they are confident the transit ridership decline is not a repudiation of the new bus system. The bus network has been praised by some, but others have complained of longer walks to reach stops and other negative consequences.

What's clear based on bus ridership data, however, is the declines are spread around the region and not just concentrated on downtown routes. The Bellaire and Westheimer routes - two of the agency's largest in terms of use - had ridership declines in excess of the overall system during the last three months.

Metro refocused efforts as part of last year's redesign on frequent core bus routes served by less-timely lines serving residential areas. Bellaire, Beechnut and Westheimer routes often are cited in national reports about the success of the Houston bus system rebuild. More than a dozen other transit agencies have looked at Houston's changes in its bus system, in hopes of replicating some of the ideas.

Ridership on the Bellaire bus line, which runs from Eldridge to the Texas Medical Center, however, dropped 10.8 percent in October and 11 percent in November compared to 2015.

Some of that could account for people finding new commuting options or shifting to other bus routes as riders continue to adjust to the realigned network. Paulette Nguyen, who lives east of Alief, meanwhile, just stopped riding because it was no longer convenient.

"I loved Metro before everything changed," Nguyen said, noting her trips seemed to take longer because the bus was so crowded after the system changed although her trip to and from work - straight down Bellaire Boulevard - was exactly the same.

Shell jobs shift looms

Though optimistic, transit officials also recognize challenges remain - especially for downtown park-and-ride use. For instance, Shell Oil Co. is moving its 3,400 downtown workers to the Energy Corridor by March. When those people are relocated, 675 of those employees will stop using Metro to ride to work, said Kenneth Brown, manager of service planning for the transit agency.

Catering to those workers to keep them using transit - and potentially lure others - will take adjusting at least one Metro bus route, the Addicks park-and-ride service. Officials also are considering talking to Shell about expanded vanpool options, Brown said.

Lambert said the pending loss of downtown-bound riders is a chance to see how many people react to multiple choices. Facing the realization the 20 percent ridership gains Metro boldly predicted two years with the new bus system will not materialize, he said improving transit in Houston might mean rethinking it.

"Maybe the vanpool program might be more important in the future," Lambert said.

Attracting new riders also will be necessary to boost bus and train numbers. Metro board member Jim Robinson, appointed by Harris County, said Metro might play a role in relieving parking woes by county employees.

"There are simply not enough (parking) lots for the people who work downtown," Robinson said of the county workers. "In some cases, they have to pay a lot to park."

Unlike the commuter bus system that ferries riders from suburban lots often far outside the Sam Houston Tollway, Robinson said Metro could develop "an intercity park and ride" that could leverage parking at local transit centers or even county facilities so even closer commutes could be taken quickly by bus.

"Maybe that would make up some of the ridership loss," Robinson said.