by Kevin Meagher

Given the not inconsiderable amount of flak that Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell have both received for their views on Northern Ireland, it is perhaps not surprising that ne’er a pipsqueak has been uttered by either of them on the subject in recent times.

But the prospect of a Labour Government requires some hard thinking about how Labour will approach Northern Ireland. It is no longer enough to coast along issuing bromides about the Good Friday Agreement.

There will be no escaping Northern Ireland in the next parliament, particularly as its shifting demography means it’s now a racing certainty that its constitutional status will be brought into question.

An opinion poll this week asked 18-44 year olds whether they wanted to ‘leave’ and become part of a single Irish state or ‘remain’ in the UK. Fifty-six per cent wanted to live in a united Ireland and just 34 per cent opted for the status quo. Irish reunification is a medium-term reality.

In response, Labour needs to do three things.

First, the party should do everything possible to help restore the devolved institutions. Government efforts at doing so, following the collapse of the executive back in January, have been faltering – to put it delicately. What has been a problem throughout 2017 is now metastasising into a full-blown crisis.

This follows revelations that Arlene Foster, in her previous role as enterprise minister back in 2012, botched the implemented of a renewable heating subsidy that is set to stack up a £500 million liability for the Northern Ireland Executive. A judge-led inquiry is currently investigating.

The Northern Ireland Secretary, the aptly-named James Brokenshire, lacks credibility and has struggled to set out a convincing way forward. He recently warned Northern Ireland was on a ‘glide path’ back to Direct Rule from Whitehall unless a breakthrough can be made. It’s an epithet that also sums up his dismal tenure in the role.

Labour should call for an international mediator to help restore trust between the parties and set out a route map to restoring the institutions.

There are several problems – which generally centre on a lack of trust and rapport between the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein – but the main area of contention hinges on the implementation of an Irish Language Act.

Long promised in previous deals, it has become emblematic for the deep cultural tensions that lie between Irish nationalists and Ulster unionists.

For Sinn Fein, the issue is symptomatic of Unionist belligerence over the very concept of recognising the equality of Irish culture and identity. For the DUP, any ‘concession’ to republicans must come at their expense – hence their refusal to make one.

Second, Labour should make a clear, unambiguous manifesto commitment to facilitate a border poll – a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status – during the next Parliament.

This is not to take sides, per se, simply to recognise that in a few short years it is entirely plausible there will be a majority in favour of Irish unity and, under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, a requirement to hold a vote.

Population trends are stark, with Catholics now outnumbering Protestants among Northern Ireland’s under-35s. During this year’s elections to the Assembly Sinn Fein came within 1,100 first preference votes from beating the DUP to top spot.

When the combined votes of parties committed to Irish unification and those who want to remain part of Britain are tallied-up, the gap is around 30,000 votes.

It’s possible that the result of the 2021 census will show a greater level of Catholic-Nationalists over Protestant-Unionists and although the ‘sectarian headcount’ might seem a bit grisly as a means of identifying political allegiance, it is also pretty accurate.

2021 also sees the next scheduled elections the Northern Ireland Assembly. If Sinn Fein tops the poll, becoming Northern Ireland’s largest party, then calls for a border poll will be impossible to ignore. (There will be a bitter irony for unionists as this coincides with Northern Ireland’s centenary).

Around this time, the UK will also leave the EU, (assuming a two to three year transition deal). At this point, Northern Ireland loses €600M a year in funding and will see inward investment leach across the Irish border (given the Irish Republic will remain part of the single market).

From a British perspective, the early 2020s represent a perfect time to hold a border poll. There’s likely to be support for Irish unity, (thus allowing Northern Ireland to remain in the EU). Plus, it resolves the thorny question of policing the border.

Third, Labour should commit to working closely with the Irish Government on a joint White Paper dealing with the practical requirements needed to give effect to a change of sovereignty.

This includes dual citizenship for those unionists that want it. More prosaically, it also covers joint public services and shared infrastructure, as well as any legacy arrangements around financial liabilities.

Both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein are preparing their own plans, generating, more serious conversation in Dublin about how the Irish state needs to be reformed to accommodate the North than at any time since partition.

Soon enough, Westminster will need to join in that conversation.

As for unionists, they need to be clear that the question of Irish reunification is now a very real one.

Nationalists and republicans were obliged to accept the principle of consent at the time the Good Friday was agreed, nearly twenty years ago. There can be no change in Northern Ireland’s constitutional status unless a majority wishes it.

These days, the same question is reversed.

Nationalists and republicans, sensing their changing fortunes, are demanding that unionists and loyalists accept the will of the ballot box.

So far, their responses are elliptical, to say the least.

Last week, the former deputy leader of the Ulster Unionists, John Taylor (now trading as Lord Kilclooney’), argued there would be ‘civil war’ if the result was narrowly in favour.

Labour needs to make clear that the British Government would be obliged to facilitate a change of sovereignty if a border poll returned a simple majority in favour.

If 52 per cent is enough to secure Brexit, it would be perverse to ignore a similar threshold if a similar number opted for Irish unity. Labour should make clear to dinosaurs like Taylor that a majority is a majority is a majority.

The pieces are now in flux and although Westminster usually tries to forget that Northern Ireland even exists, these critical issues require an early, coherent response.

Northern Ireland is going to take up a lot of room in the next Prime Minister’s in-tray.

Kevin Meagher is the associate editor of Uncut and author of ‘A United Ireland: Why Unification is inevitable and how it will come about’

Tags: Arlene Foster, DUP, Ireland, James Brokenshire, Jeremy Corbyn, Kevin Meagher, Northern Ireland