With the news the Challenge Vendettas will only be having one winner this season, the dialect we use when trying to talk about who could be a possible winner this season changes. How many people will be in the final? Will there be the usual three males and three females in the final, or will they make it three people overall, will they jump the shark to four (like Fresh Meat 2) or even back down to two (like Duel 1).

MTV tweeted this out:

With split guy/girl elimination days, we could be seeing more people in the final, or this could mean more purges. Anyone watching the trailers for this season could see there are guys and girls together in the elimination arena competing. Maybe at one point the format will flip on everyone.

Are there female competitors running the same final as the guys individually, or will they be running as pairs the whole way through and the person with the best overall time wins? It’s an interesting concept. For the sake of continuity with other seasons, I will be breaking down who has the best chances to win this season based on this concept of one winner. Who are the favorites, dark horses, and long-shots.

The True Contenders

Zach Nichols (+350)

Johnny Bananas (+400)

Nelson Thomas (+400)

Cara Maria Sorbello (+500)

These are what I would call the lines after the first mission of the season. Before the season, Bananas would have opened at #1, but finishing second to last and looking haggard drops him a bit. Then again, Bananas is like the San Antonio Spurs of the Challenge. Even a bad Bananas season is still a favorite to win because of his ability to socially maneuver through the game.

Zach killed it on Champs vs Stars and finished second in the first mission of the season. He is a past winner and is off to a quick start. Nelson did okay in the first mission and has not been eliminated traditionally since Rivals 3. Like Zach, it’s hard to imagine players ever wanting to see Nelson in an elimination Considering Cara Maria won as a co-ed pair against a dual male pair in the Bloodlines final, she is the female favorite to win. Her line might have been higher, however ,she did struggle in the first mission.

Dark Horse Candidates

Shane Landrum (+600)

Brad Fiorenza (+650)

Nicole Zanatta (+700)

Joss Mooney (+950)

Kailah Casillas (+950)

LeRoy Garrett (+1000)

This is the second tier of possible winners. Brad would be higher on the list if he was not so far removed from his last season. As much as we all love Shane, he always comes up short. After a strong finish in the first mission, Nicole showed she can keep up with the boys physically, can she do puzzles though?

Kailah and her fans hype her as a future winner, though it may be later rather than sooner considering she would need to beat the guys and girls. The big shocker is Joss who destroyed the first mission; he has a big target on his back now. I feel obligated to put LeRoy on here, he always makes it to at least the halfway point and kills eliminations — he just has no desire to win.

The Long Shots

Tony Raines (+1400)

Cory Wharton (+1900)

Devin Walker (+2000)

Kyle Christie (+2200)

Veronica Portillo (+3500)

Maybe Tony should be with the Dark Horse candidates, then again he is a player who generally finds a way to lose. Cory and Devin are in a similar boat where winning would be a bit far-fetched from a game standpoint. The two are production favorites who could have the game catered to them. Based on how much the cast likes Kyle, he may have a chance at winning in this game. Obligatorily, Veronica is on the long shots as the person with the second most Challenge wins on the cast.