John Tory remains in front in Toronto’s mayoral race, with Councillor Doug Ford in the hunt and Olivia Chow slipping, a new poll suggests.

Results released by Forum Research late Monday night said Tory has captured 43 per cent of support — a number based on 1,167 randomly chosen respondents who were surveyed Monday. He now has a 10-point lead over his nearest rival, Ford, at 33 per cent, and a 23-point lead over Chow, who is at 20 per cent, the survey found. Three per cent said they would vote for a fringe candidate.

An Ipsos-Reid poll from late last week gave Tory a far larger lead — a whopping 22 points over both Ford and Chow. However, Forum’s last survey, from last week, gave Tory a mere seven-point lead over Ford, 38-31, with 25 per cent for Chow.

“This is an improvement for John Tory since last week, and it appears Olivia Chow’s resurgence was short-lived,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff. “However, with basically the length of an entire federal election campaign to go before the election, it’s too early to say either of the two leaders has an insurmountable advantage.”

Tory has been the frontrunner in every poll taken since July 30, though by widely varying margins over second place, which has been occupied by Chow, Mayor Rob Ford and Doug Ford each within that time frame. Before Tory’s poll reign, Chow had not trailed in any survey going back to February.

The Forum numbers reveal that Tory’s lead is widening in part due to the significant ground he’s made across the city, but primarily in suburbs like Etobicoke, where the Fords had picked up plenty of support in the past.

The poll revealed that Tory leads in all six former cities which combined to form Toronto during amalgamation except North York, where Ford has the most support, and Scarborough, where Tory and Ford are locked in a dead heat.

That finding reinforces numbers from the Ipsos-Reid poll, which suggested that Tory was breaking through into suburbs often considered Ford strongholds.

Forum said respondents who answered its poll in favour of Ford were predominately young males identifying with the Progressive Conservatives and living in North York or Scarborough.

Tory’s fan base was characterized as much older, PC or Liberal and living in Etobicoke or York.

Chow’s supporters emerged as the youngest polled. They most commonly identified as past provincial NDP voters residing within the downtown core or in East York.

In the wake of the Ipsos-Reid poll several political insiders suggested that suburban support was absolutely essential for a candidate to find victory in the Oct. 27 vote.

The Forum poll’s results are considered accurate, plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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Ford was pegged by an Ipsos-Reid poll from last week at 26 per cent support. Meanwhile, recent polls suggest Chow has seen her support begin to languish.

While Ipsos Reid said she and Ford were both hanging onto 26 per cent of the vote on Friday, but Forum’s new numbers say her support has decreased to 20 per cent.

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