These data were confirmed in the same cohort (16,008 adults) that were followed for an additional 2 years (14 years total; Goyal et al. 2013). Baseline serum selenium values greater than 1.4 uM were associated with significantly reduced all-cause mortality risk, compared with values less than1.38 uM.

Finally, in a 13-year study of 1,054 older adults (average age ~76y), elevated plasma levels of selenium (risk ratios were reported without the corresponding selenium concentration) were associated with significantly decreased all-cause mortality risk (Bates et al. 2011).

Studies that show weaker or no association between circulating values of selenium with all-cause mortality risk include Gonzalez et al. (2007) and Wei et al. (2004). In Gonzalez et al. (2007), serum selenium values greater than 1.26 uM were associated with decreased all-cause mortality risk for older women (average age, 76y), but not men, during a 4-year follow-up. However, Gonzalez et al. (2007) may have been underpowered to detect significant associations with mortality risk because of the small study size (215 total subjects). In Wei et al. (2004), a younger cohort (average age, 56y) of 1,115 subjects were followed for 15 years, and no association between serum selenium with all-cause mortality was found. However, only 4% of the population (~46 subjects) had serum selenium values greater than 1.19 uM, a finding that suggests that this study was additionally under-sized to detect significant associations.

Collectively, these studies suggest that circulating selenium values greater than at least 1.0 uM (and up to ~1.9 uM) are optimal for reducing all-cause mortality risk. What dietary intake of selenium can achieve these circulating values?

Shown below is the correlation between dietary selenium with serum selenium in 205 older adults (average age ~75y; González et al. 2006). Let’s start with the RDA selenium value for adults older than 19 years, 55 micrograms (mcg; Institute of Medicine, 2000). 55 mcg of dietary selenium is correlated with a serum selenium value of ~80 ug/L (~1 uM). In support of this correlation, a dietary selenium intake of ~47 ug/day has been shown to correlate with a circulating selenium concentration of 0.95 uM (Navarro et al. 1995). Based on the evidence already presented, eating only the RDA for selenium and achieving circulating selenium values less 1 uM would be associated with increased risk of death from all causes in 6 of the 7 studies! Based on its association with all-cause mortality risk, the RDA selenium value of 55 mcg/day is too low.