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“We are pretty confident that oil will be in triple digits by next year,” said Jean-Louis Le Mee from Westbeck Capital. By then the oil market will be feeling the delayed effects of a 40 per cent slump in investment from late 2014 to early 2017, storing up a structural shortfall of 8 million barrels a day (b/d).

Le Mee said the Iranian sanctions alone will take up to 500,000 b/d off the global market by the fourth quarter, rising to 700,000 in 2019.

This is happening just as the proxy-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran over Yemen reaches a lethal crescendo.

Escalating missile attacks on Saudi targets by the Iranian-backed Houthis threaten to detonate an epic clash between the rival Sunni and Shia alliance systems.

“The Houthis are not backing off. My fear for contagion is that one of these missiles will get through Saudi air defences and then we will be in a Mid-East war,” said Helima Croft from RBC Capital. “If a Saudi tanker is sunk with 2 million barrels of oil, people are going to start worrying about the security of the sea lanes. Markets have been far too complacent,” she said.

Photo by Mohammed Huwais/AFP/Getty Images

It is also happening as Venezuela’s oil industry goes into near-terminal collapse, with drilling parts running out and thousands of long-suffering staff at the state energy group PDVSA walking off the job in protest over pay arrears. Output has crashed by 550,000 b/d since early 2017.