Nearly half of Labour supporters think their party will never win a general election following Jeremy Corbyn's re-election as leader, a Sky Data poll reveals.

Asked during the contest whether they thought Labour would ever win again if Mr Corbyn won, 45% said it is unlikely, while 44% said it is likely.

Some 70% of those who backed Mr Corbyn's leadership rival, Owen Smith, expect Labour to never win again.

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Their outlook is even bleaker in the shorter term, with 59% saying it is unlikely that Labour will now win the next general election, including 93% of Smith supporters.


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Sky Data conducted the survey in July, going back to people who said they would vote Labour in surveys from Mr Corbyn's election as Labour leader in September 2015 through to the vote of no confidence in him as leader in June 2016.

Data is weighted to the profile of Labour supporters over that period.

Following a summer of high tension, the re-elected Labour leader will now face a challenge in reuniting his party.

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Six in 10 (59%) said a split in the party was likely if Mr Corbyn won the contest, and questions from his critics regarding his commitment to the campaign to keep Britain in the EU ahead of the referendum remain - 41% of Labour supporters think Mr Corbyn personally wanted the UK to vote Leave, with 40% saying he wanted the Remain campaign to win.

Labour supporters expected to lose the next election regardless of who won the Labour leadership contest - if Mr Smith had won, 56% said it is unlikely they would win next time around.

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However, had he won a split was seen as far less likely than under Mr Corbyn (53% said a split would be unlikely, 30% likely) - and prospects of general election wins further into the future were seen to be brighter (48% said Labour would likely win again if he had won, 35% saying it was unlikely).

The survey also asked Labour supporters whether, if forced to choose, they would prefer the Labour Party to be "a mainstream party of government similar to New Labour" or "a left-wing social movement similar to the 2011 Occupy movement".

Labour supporters overall backed the party to be more like New Labour than Occupy 58% to 25%. However, supporters of Mr Corbyn said they would prefer the party to be more like Occupy than New Labour 47% to 35%.

For full Sky Data tables, please click here.