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WINNERS

Hassan Rouhani: Iran’s president is by a long way the biggest winner to emerge from the nuclear agreement. Ending Iran’s international isolation is a historic achievement that looks likely to win him a second term in 2017. But he faces resistance from suspicious hardliners who fear that even limited rapprochement with the US and the west will promote demands for domestic change that could undermine a regime dominated by the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Bashar al-Assad: The Syrian president quickly hailed the agreement as a “major turning point” in the history of Iran, the region and the world, calling it a “great victory”. Assad has received military and financial support from Iran since the uprising against him erupted in 2011. Tehran’s enhanced regional position in the wake of the deal will strengthen its demands for recognition as a key player in the Middle East, including in any negotiations about the future of Syria. Assad’s Syrian and Arab enemies, contemplating a war that has already left 210,000 dead and made millions of people homeless, are horrified by the nuclear deal – for exactly these reasons.

LOSERS

King Salman bin Abdulaziz: Saudi Arabia’s initial silence about the agreement suggests deep anxiety about a rapprochement between the US and Iran, its greatest rival in the region, and a pivot away from the Gulf. The view in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and nearby capitals is that Washington is appeasing Tehran and ignoring their own security concerns – despite the Gulf states’ far greater expenditure on defence. Salman strongly dislikes Iran’s role in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, where the Saudis are attacking Houthi rebels they say are backed by Tehran.

Binyamin Netanyahu: Israel’s prime minister had vowed to stop a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran. Not only did he fail to do that but he caused serious damage to Israel’s prized strategic relationship with Washington. Critics at home say he exaggerated the extent of an Iranian threat, some calling for his resignation. Iran has been notoriously hostile to the Jewish state since the 1979 revolution and highlights its support for the Palestinians, including Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Nothing in the Vienna agreement suggests that will change. Israel also fears Iran may be emboldened.

Read Ian’s full analysis here.