A frequently cited projection of coronavirus deaths has dropped Alabama’s number to below 450.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a Washington state-based research organization referenced in government projections, is tracking hospital bed and intensive care bed needs and ventilator use based on projected death rates for Alabama and all other states. Its early numbers were staggering, with a late March total projecting the state could see more than 1,700 deaths from COVID-19. By early April, that number had grown to project as many as 5,516 deaths by May 16, a number that would have put Alabama fourth in the country for coronavirus deaths.

After those dire projections, however, the numbers started trending lower. IHME said the change was due to a “massive infusion of new data” that went towards updating the numbers. Now, Alabama is forecast to have 429 deaths by May 16 with 431 projected by Aug. 4. The range of number of deaths for May 16 is 127 to 1,339; the range for Aug. 4 is 127 to 1,353.

Deaths are projected to peak on April 20.

IHME forecasts Alabama will have no shortage in hospital or ICU beds or ventilators. The projections factor in social distancing happening until the end of May, despite indicators the government is considering opening up at least some parts of the economy before summer.

According to the Alabama Department of Public Health, Alabama currently has more than 3,262 cases of coronavirus, with 93 people reported to have died from the illness. Sixty of those deaths have been confirmed.

You can track more Alabama coronavirus data here.

National trends

IHME’s national forecast – once as high as 200,000 U.S. deaths – is also trending down. The current data forecasts 58,754 deaths by May 16 with 61,545 by Aug. 4.

As of yesterday, the U.S. has 529,740 cases of coronavirus with at least 20,600 deaths.