Politics, Government & Current Affairs

Conservative Party voting intention steadies while public mood continues shift to “Soft Brexit”

Survation UK Attitudes Tracker: Westminster, Brexit & Leadership: July 1st 2017

Sample size: 1,017

Fieldwork dates: 28th – 30th June 2017

Method: UK adults aged 18+ interviewed via telephone

Full tables available here.

Headline Voting Intention (with change from last Survation poll 19/6*)

CON 41% (+1) LAB 40% (-4) LD 7% (+1) UKIP 2% (NC) Others 10% (+2)

*Comparisons are based on the following unrounded percentages:

01/07 CON 41.1% LAB 40.0% LD 6.8% UKIP 2.3% Other 9.9%

19/6 CON 40.5% LAB 44.0%; LD 5.8% UKIP 1.6% Others 8.1%

Survation’s latest telephone voting intention tracker – and the first since the Queen’s Speech and a government was formed by the Conservatives with the DUP in a confidence and supply agreement – shows Theresa May’s party regaining a narrow one-point lead over Labour.

Recent post-election polling by Survation, both online for the Mail on Sunday and via telephone for Good Morning Britain, showed Labour leads of five and three points respectively. However, the results of this latest poll almost exactly mirror our final poll before the General Election – the most accurate among British Polling Council members.

Survation’s EU Trackers

With EU negotiations likely to rumble on for months, if not years, we repeated many questions in our latest poll that we have asked previously, with the intention of carrying them on as negotiations continue. Whilst it would be premature to comment on changes and trends after just two polls, we hope that this is something to look out for in the future.

With that said, a majority (55%) still think that a coalition of all political parties, rather than just the Conservative-led government (32%) would be best placed to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU. However, a majority (51%) still trust Theresa May over Jeremy Corbyn (35%) to deliver the best deal for Britain.

The public are split over whether they support or oppose a second referendum on the deal itself once negotiations are complete, with 46% in favour of a second vote and 47% against.

EU Referendum Voting Intention (with change from last Survation poll 19/6*)

Leave 46% (-3) Remain 54% (+3)

If there was another EU Referendum held tomorrow, our poll shows that the result from 12 months ago would be reversed, with Remain on 54% (+3 from our last poll) and Leave on 46% (-3).

*Comparisons are based on the following unrounded percentages: 01/07 Leave 45.54% Remain 54.46% 19/06 Leave 48.8% Remain 51.2%

Preserving the Union?

Following Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to reset the Scottish Government’s timetable for a second Scottish Independence Referendum in 2018 or 2019, we asked UK respondents how important preserving the union was to them.

On a 0-10 scale, where 10 = very important and 0 = not at all important, nearly two-thirds (61%) rated the importance of preserving the union of England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland as 8 or more, with 42% giving it ‘10/10’. Just one-in-ten (12%) rated it less than a 5 on our scale.

A Coalition for Brexit?

A majority (55%) still think that a coalition of all political parties, rather than just the Conservative-led government (32%) would be best placed to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU.

Trust in Party Leaders?

A majority (51%) still trust Theresa May over Jeremy Corbyn (35%) to deliver the best deal for Britain.

EU Trackers – Customs Union – The CETA Example:

A Referendum on the UK’s Brexit Deal?

Public View firms up in the direction that leaving the EU without a deal would be “bad for Britain”

Acceptance of Theresa May’s Deal Judgement?

Acceptance the judgement of Theresa May’s own view on a Brexit deal offered to the UK post negotiations has slipped from almost 2:1 in her favour to a more split picture.

Survation interviewed 1,017 UK adults aged 18+ via the telephone between the 28th – 30th June. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. You can sign up to our press release list here.