Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates predicted a global pandemic would kill many people and grind the world economy to a halt in a 2015 TED Talk.

As world governments struggle to grapple with the rapidly spreading coronavirus, Gates warned years ago that humanity was ill-prepared for a fast-spreading, life-threatening pathogen.

With over 236,000 infections and more than 9,700 deaths, the epidemic has stunned the world and drawn comparisons with painful periods such as World War Two, the 2008 financial crisis and the 1918 Spanish flu.

In 2015, Gates told a TED Talk that if the wealthiest nations had prepared for a pandemic with the same urgency that they prepared for nuclear war, this could have been avoided.

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates gave a TED Talk in 2015 warning that the world was ill-prepared for a global pandemic

A man is seen above wearing a face mask while walking through an empty Times Square on Thursday

‘If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war,’ Gates said at the time.

‘Not missiles, but microbes.’

Gates said that the prospect of a global pandemic was overlooked by governments, even after recent outbreaks of the Ebola virus.

Ebola killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2013 and 2016, mainly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Gates said that the world was lucky that the Ebola outbreak was limited to West Africa.

Ebola, unlike coronavirus, renders those carrying it as too ill and weak to walk around and infect others.

Gates also chalked it up to sheer luck that Ebola didn’t spread into urban areas.

‘Next time, we might not be so lucky,’ the multi-billionaire philanthropist said.

Gates urged Western governments to view pandemics the same way they view military threats.

He noted that while countries run drills known as ‘war games’ to prepare for future military conflict, it should also run simulations known as ‘germ games’ to be better prepared for widespread illness.

Gates warned: ‘We've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents, but we've invested very little in a system to stop epidemics. We are not ready for the next epidemic.’

In his lecture, Gates called for beefing up health systems in poor countries and embedding medical staff with the military in order to enable more rapid deployment of teams to deal with pandemics.

Last year, Gates, who since stepping down as CEO of Microsoft has devoted his energies to helping eradicate disease in the developing world, also warned of a coming pandemic.

In a 2019 Netflix documentary, Gates predicted a killer virus could originate in China's wet markets to rapidly infect the world

Bill Gates featured in this episode of the Explained series to discuss the likelihood of a killer virus going global

Gates appeared in the Netflix documentary to talk about the likelihood of a virus breaking out in one of China's wet markets where animals are killed on the spot before being sold

In what now appears to be an eerie premonition of future events, the Microsoft tycoon warned in an episode of the Netflix 'Explained' series that the world was ill-prepared to deal with a global pandemic.

In the series aired late last year Gates had warned of the likelihood of a virus breaking out in one of China's wet markets - exactly like the one in Wuhan where this new outbreak of coronavirus is believed to have originated.

In the episode titled The Next Pandemic the documentary producers go to a wet market in Lianghua, China, where animals are killed and the resulting meat sold in the same place.

This, the documentary explained, makes the wet markets a 'disease X factory' as the different animal corpses are stacked on top of each other, blood and meat mixing, before being passed from human to human.

'All the while, their viruses are mixing and mutating, increasing the odds that one finds its way to humans,' the documentary goes on to explain.

In the episode, Gates also warned the world was ill-prepared to deal with the implications of the viral spread of disease when cures were often years away.

He said if nothing was done to better prepare for pandemics the time would come when the world would look back and wish it had invested more into potential vaccines.

'If you think of anything that could come along that would kill millions of people, a pandemic is our greatest risk,' he said.

Scientists who have been looking at the current coronavirus outbreak believe it comes from snakes and bats - animals that had been sold live at the Wuhan seafood market, before being killed and eaten.

Previous pandemics have also originated in China, such as the SARS outbreak that came from bats and civet cats.

And as the World Health Organisation classes the latest coronavirus outbreak as a global health emergency, the race is on to find a vaccine.

All 50 states have reported cases of coronavirus, with New York, Washington and California badly hit

The number of cases have been rapidly growing each day and the death toll has surpassed 200.

Scientists in Hong Kong and China are reportedly close to finding a vaccine and testing it for use.

When asked about the current pandemic, Gates urged everyone to 'stay calm' and claimed that some recent doomsday projections are 'too negative'.

Instead of lasting 18 months until a vaccine can be developed, the present crisis may only last six to 10 weeks in some countries, the businessman added.

The Microsoft co-founder shared his thoughts on the coronavirus crisis during an 'Ask Me Anything' session on Reddit on March 18, 2020.

'We do need to stay calm, even though this is an unprecedented situation,' Gates wrote in response to a question about what people can do to help during the crisis.

'A big thing is to go along with the "shut down" approach in your community so that the infection rate drops dramatically to let us go back to normal as soon as possible,' he wrote.

An early question concerned a recent report from Imperial College London, which suggested that, if uncontrolled, the coronavirus could potentially kill more than two million people in the United States alone.

Members of staff of the Wuhan Hygiene Emergency Response Team drive their vehicle as they leave the closed Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in the city of Wuhan. This is believed to be the source of the coronavirus outbreak

Workers in protective gear catch a giant salamander that was reported to have escaped from the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan in central China's Hubei Province. Wet markets such as this one in Wuhan which has been closed have been described as having conditions rife for a viral outbreak

Furthermore, the study suggested that the current social distancing tactics that are seeing many people mainly confined to their homes could last for some 18 months, until a vaccine against the infection could be developed.

On the report, Gates said that, 'fortunately, it appears that the parameters used in that model were too negative.'

'The experience in China is the most critical data we have,' he continued.

'They did their "shut down" and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection.'

'The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them,' he explained.

'People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool.'

One such group — the Institute for Disease Modeling — receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Gates went on to predict that if a given country does a 'good job' at both testing people and implementing shutdown and social distancing policies 'then within 6–10 weeks [said nation] should see very few cases and be able to open back up.'

'I worry about all the economic damage,' Gates wrote, noting that wealthy countries here being hit hard at present and would only be able to begin the process of economic recovery after infection rates have been brought under control.

'Even worse will be how this will affect the developing countries who cannot do the social distancing the same way as rich countries and whose hospital capacity is much lower.'

The full 'Ask Me Anything' session can be read on Reddit.

Gates' responses to Reddit on Wednesday appear to be more optimistic than his initial observations about the coronavirus last month.

In an op-ed that he penned for the New England Journal of Medicine, Gates warned that the coronavirus was beginning to behave like a 'once-in-a-century' pathogen with the potential to kill more people than the 66,000 Americans who died in the 1957 influenza pandemic.

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS? What is the coronavirus? A coronavirus is a type of virus which can cause illness in animals and people. Viruses break into cells inside their host and use them to reproduce itself and disrupt the body's normal functions. Coronaviruses are named after the Latin word 'corona', which means crown, because they are encased by a spiked shell which resembles a royal crown. The coronavirus from Wuhan is one which has never been seen before this outbreak. It has been named SARS-CoV-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. The name stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2. Experts say the bug, which has killed around one in 50 patients since the outbreak began in December, is a 'sister' of the SARS illness which hit China in 2002, so has been named after it. The disease that the virus causes has been named COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019. Dr Helena Maier, from the Pirbright Institute, said: 'Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that infect a wide range of different species including humans, cattle, pigs, chickens, dogs, cats and wild animals. 'Until this new coronavirus was identified, there were only six different coronaviruses known to infect humans. Four of these cause a mild common cold-type illness, but since 2002 there has been the emergence of two new coronaviruses that can infect humans and result in more severe disease (Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses). 'Coronaviruses are known to be able to occasionally jump from one species to another and that is what happened in the case of SARS, MERS and the new coronavirus. The animal origin of the new coronavirus is not yet known.' The first human cases were publicly reported from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where approximately 11million people live, after medics first started publicly reporting infections on December 31. By January 8, 59 suspected cases had been reported and seven people were in critical condition. Tests were developed for the new virus and recorded cases started to surge. The first person died that week and, by January 16, two were dead and 41 cases were confirmed. The next day, scientists predicted that 1,700 people had become infected, possibly up to 7,000. Where does the virus come from? According to scientists, the virus almost certainly came from bats. Coronaviruses in general tend to originate in animals – the similar SARS and MERS viruses are believed to have originated in civet cats and camels, respectively. The first cases of COVID-19 came from people visiting or working in a live animal market in Wuhan, which has since been closed down for investigation. Although the market is officially a seafood market, other dead and living animals were being sold there, including wolf cubs, salamanders, snakes, peacocks, porcupines and camel meat. A study by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, published in February 2020 in the scientific journal Nature, found that the genetic make-up virus samples found in patients in China is 96 per cent identical to a coronavirus they found in bats. However, there were not many bats at the market so scientists say it was likely there was an animal which acted as a middle-man, contracting it from a bat before then transmitting it to a human. It has not yet been confirmed what type of animal this was. Dr Michael Skinner, a virologist at Imperial College London, was not involved with the research but said: 'The discovery definitely places the origin of nCoV in bats in China. 'We still do not know whether another species served as an intermediate host to amplify the virus, and possibly even to bring it to the market, nor what species that host might have been.' So far the fatalities are quite low. Why are health experts so worried about it? Experts say the international community is concerned about the virus because so little is known about it and it appears to be spreading quickly. It is similar to SARS, which infected 8,000 people and killed nearly 800 in an outbreak in Asia in 2003, in that it is a type of coronavirus which infects humans' lungs. It is less deadly than SARS, however, which killed around one in 10 people, compared to approximately one in 50 for COVID-19. Another reason for concern is that nobody has any immunity to the virus because they've never encountered it before. This means it may be able to cause more damage than viruses we come across often, like the flu or common cold. Speaking at a briefing in January, Oxford University professor, Dr Peter Horby, said: 'Novel viruses can spread much faster through the population than viruses which circulate all the time because we have no immunity to them. 'Most seasonal flu viruses have a case fatality rate of less than one in 1,000 people. Here we're talking about a virus where we don't understand fully the severity spectrum but it's possible the case fatality rate could be as high as two per cent.' If the death rate is truly two per cent, that means two out of every 100 patients who get it will die. 'My feeling is it's lower,' Dr Horby added. 'We're probably missing this iceberg of milder cases. But that's the current circumstance we're in. 'Two per cent case fatality rate is comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 so it is a significant concern globally.' How does the virus spread? The illness can spread between people just through coughs and sneezes, making it an extremely contagious infection. And it may also spread even before someone has symptoms. It is believed to travel in the saliva and even through water in the eyes, therefore close contact, kissing, and sharing cutlery or utensils are all risky. It can also live on surfaces, such as plastic and steel, for up to 72 hours, meaning people can catch it by touching contaminated surfaces. Originally, people were thought to be catching it from a live animal market in Wuhan city. But cases soon began to emerge in people who had never been there, which forced medics to realise it was spreading from person to person. What does the virus do to you? What are the symptoms? Once someone has caught the COVID-19 virus it may take between two and 14 days, or even longer, for them to show any symptoms – but they may still be contagious during this time. If and when they do become ill, typical signs include a runny nose, a cough, sore throat and a fever (high temperature). The vast majority of patients will recover from these without any issues, and many will need no medical help at all. In a small group of patients, who seem mainly to be the elderly or those with long-term illnesses, it can lead to pneumonia. Pneumonia is an infection in which the insides of the lungs swell up and fill with fluid. It makes it increasingly difficult to breathe and, if left untreated, can be fatal and suffocate people. Figures are showing that young children do not seem to be particularly badly affected by the virus, which they say is peculiar considering their susceptibility to flu, but it is not clear why. What have genetic tests revealed about the virus? Scientists in China have recorded the genetic sequences of around 19 strains of the virus and released them to experts working around the world. This allows others to study them, develop tests and potentially look into treating the illness they cause. Examinations have revealed the coronavirus did not change much – changing is known as mutating – much during the early stages of its spread. However, the director-general of China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gao Fu, said the virus was mutating and adapting as it spread through people. This means efforts to study the virus and to potentially control it may be made extra difficult because the virus might look different every time scientists analyse it. More study may be able to reveal whether the virus first infected a small number of people then change and spread from them, or whether there were various versions of the virus coming from animals which have developed separately. How dangerous is the virus? The virus has a death rate of around two per cent. This is a similar death rate to the Spanish Flu outbreak which, in 1918, went on to kill around 50million people. Experts have been conflicted since the beginning of the outbreak about whether the true number of people who are infected is significantly higher than the official numbers of recorded cases. Some people are expected to have such mild symptoms that they never even realise they are ill unless they're tested, so only the more serious cases get discovered, making the death toll seem higher than it really is. However, an investigation into government surveillance in China said it had found no reason to believe this was true. Dr Bruce Aylward, a World Health Organization official who went on a mission to China, said there was no evidence that figures were only showing the tip of the iceberg, and said recording appeared to be accurate, Stat News reported. Can the virus be cured? The COVID-19 virus cannot be cured and it is proving difficult to contain. Antibiotics do not work against viruses, so they are out of the question. Antiviral drugs can work, but the process of understanding a virus then developing and producing drugs to treat it would take years and huge amounts of money. No vaccine exists for the coronavirus yet and it's not likely one will be developed in time to be of any use in this outbreak, for similar reasons to the above. The National Institutes of Health in the US, and Baylor University in Waco, Texas, say they are working on a vaccine based on what they know about coronaviruses in general, using information from the SARS outbreak. But this may take a year or more to develop, according to Pharmaceutical Technology. Currently, governments and health authorities are working to contain the virus and to care for patients who are sick and stop them infecting other people. People who catch the illness are being quarantined in hospitals, where their symptoms can be treated and they will be away from the uninfected public. And airports around the world are putting in place screening measures such as having doctors on-site, taking people's temperatures to check for fevers and using thermal screening to spot those who might be ill (infection causes a raised temperature). However, it can take weeks for symptoms to appear, so there is only a small likelihood that patients will be spotted up in an airport. Is this outbreak an epidemic or a pandemic? The outbreak was declared a pandemic on March 11. A pandemic is defined by the World Health Organization as the 'worldwide spread of a new disease'. Previously, the UN agency said most cases outside of Hubei had been 'spillover' from the epicentre, so the disease wasn't actually spreading actively around the world. Advertisement

'The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1 per cent,' Gates wrote.

'This rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6 per cent) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2 per cent).'

The 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic is the benchmark by which all modern pandemics are measured.

Some 20 to 40 per cent of the worldwide population became ill and more than 50 million people died.

Between September 1918 and April 1919, it killed more than 600,000 people in the United States alone.

In a normal flu season, about 36,000 people die in the United States, and 250,000 to 500,000 globally.

The Asian flu of 1957 killed 2 million people globally, according to the World Health Organization.

'By helping countries in Africa and South Asia get ready now, we can save lives and also slow the global circulation of this virus,' Gates wrote.

Gates is also flexing his philanthropic muscle in helping curb the spread of coronavirus in his native Seattle.

Gates and his charity are funding a new home-testing kit for coronavirus that is expected to be ready for distribution in the greater Seattle area in the coming weeks.

A video of the spread and mutation of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014 plays on a laptop at US Army Medical Research and Development Command at Fort Detrick, Maryland on Thursday. Scientists there are working to help develop solutions to prevent, detect and treat the coronavirus

The test will allow people experiencing symptoms of coronavirus to swab their noses and then send the samples to a lab for an analysis.

The results would then be available within one to two days.

Those who test positive would have those results shared with local health officials, according to The Seattle Times.

Whoever is infected would then be asked to share information online about where they traveled to and with whom they were in contact.

This would make it easier for health officials to notify others who may need to be either tested for coronavirus or quarantined as a precautionary measure.

The system would also allow the authorities to better track the spread of the virus and identify potential ‘hot spots.’

Scott Dowell, the head of the coronavirus response team at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, told the Times that the lab conducting the tests will initially be able to analyze 400 samples per day.

With time, the lab will be able to test thousands of kits a day, he said.

Dowell told the Times that the foundation is working as quickly as possible in order to ramp up production of the kits, though the exact launch date has yet to be determined.

The experts working on the project are looking to boost the software so that it can handle what is expected to be considerable demand during and after its roll-out.

‘Although there’s a lot to be worked out, this has enormous potential to turn the tide of the epidemic,’ Dowell said.

Washington State has been among the hardest hit by coronavirus, which has infected at least 1,100 residents.

At least 68 Washingtonians, most of them linked to a Seattle-area nursing home, have died, which is also a high for the country.