President Donald Trump is considering a 20% tariff on imports of steel and possibly a number of other goods, Axios says.

According to the report, Trump held a meeting with key advisers on Thursday and was heavily in favor of the tariffs despite their warnings of the economic implications.

The pending decision comes after Trump set up a task force to look into steel import practices a few months ago.

The move is not surprising, given that Trump made free trade one of the central topics of his campaign after criticizing China, Mexico, and Japan.

He suggested putting a 45% tariff on Chinese imports, said he would declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office, proposed taxing imports from Mexico, said he'd "rip up" trade deals, and called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, "a rape of our country."

At post-election rallies, Trump said that "we have to look at it [trade] almost as a war," asking "Who the hell cares if there's a trade war?"

Trump said China specifically is committing "the greatest jobs theft in the history of the world."

Following the election, Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi, wrote in a note to clients that protectionist trade policies might spark a global trade war, "which could easily trigger a global recession."

Deutsche Bank has also addressed the negative risks of the Trump trade agenda. A team from the firm wrote in a December note that "the biggest threat to growth is a possible protectionist turn, which could depress global trade and even trigger trade wars."

While the Deutsche Bank report did not predict a coming collapse in international trade, the possible moves from Trump could be the first domino in a broader change in global change.

Additionally, a tariff of any kind is likely to spark a reaction from major US trading partners such as China. Chinese officials reportedly weighed options for how to respond to hostile trade moves by Trump when he took office.

Given the newest moves by Trump, we've broken down just how a protectionist trade scenario could affect the US economy and the geopolitical order.

A macroeconomic drag

While the 20% tariff would only apply to certain goods like steel, semiconductors, and household appliances, it could lead to higher costs and possibly a slight drag to GDP growth. The bigger fear for economists is what it signals going forward.

Michael Gapen, a chief US economist at Barclays, in December estimated the economic drag that broader tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, two of Trump's favorite targets, may have on US GDP growth.

One idea floated by the Trump team previously was a 15% tariff on Chinese imports and a 7% tariff on Mexican imports — modestly above their current levels of 2% to 10%, depending on the good. In this scenario, Gapen estimated that the US would see a 0.5% reduction in annual GDP growth in the year after implementation.

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Meanwhile, Buiter said Citi estimates trade and other policy uncertainties could be a 1% drag on US GDP over the next year.

And should Trump eventually follow through with any of these policies, the US risks retaliatory measures from other countries.

"If tariffs are more punitive and lead to a public trade spat with China, markets will get nervous, especially if a sharp, retaliatory, [Chinese yuan] depreciation looks like a realistic response," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays.

If other countries follow this pattern, it could lead to a downward spiral or litigation at the World Trade Organization.

"Depending on the specific measures, retaliatory action from elsewhere could be expected, while the risk of trade and currency wars could grow," said Janet Henry, chief global economist at HSBC.