Nov 28, 2015; Washington, DC, USA;Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter Jr. (22) passes to Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) as Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) defends during the first quarter at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Wizards are relying heavily on Bradley Beal and Otto Porter for production in 2017, but the two have been connected for quite some time

This summer was a fork in the road for the Washington Wizards.

The Randy Wittman/Nene era is over and the team had money to spend in free agency for the first time since John Wall was drafted.

With three more years on Wall’s contract, the Wizards had to pick a direction. They decided to double down on their two number three draft picks, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter.

Ted Leonsis and Ernie Grunfeld gave Beal the largest contract in Wizards/Bullets history on the first day of free agency. Then they reaffirmed their commitment to Porter by not targeting any of the obtainable free agent wings.

Players like Kent Bazemore, Luol Deng, Harrison Barnes, or Chandler Parsons could have started over Porter or provided reinforcements.

Beal and Porter were both born in St. Louis, Missourri in 1993. They played high school basketball two hours apart. And they are now two of the biggest variables next season when trying to predict the Wizards’ success.

The Starting Five:

To a certain degree, we know what we are getting from Wall (age 25), Gortat (32), and Markieff Morris (26).

Wall: A top 15-20 player in the league, the emotional leader of the Wiz, and someone we know can be the best player on a playoff team.

Gortat: Straight up a pick-and-roll machine.

Last season, Gortat scored the fifth most points in the league while acting as a “roll-man,” per nba.com/stats.

In fact, of the 15 most frequent rollers to the rim Gortat, who was thirteenth, scored the most points per possession at 1.21.

The only high usage roll-men who scored more points per possession than the Machine were DeAndre Jordan, Hassan Whiteside, and Tristan Thompson – three pogo-sticks less versatile than Gortat .

Morris: I am already on record as high on Keef. I think he will thrive next year running with Wall as a playmaking-4. Would anyone rather have Georgios Papagiannis?

Beal and Porter are being counted on to take leaps forward.

Beal has played an average of 62 games a season and has had a PER above league average exactly once (last year). An All-Star caliber season from him would sure make things a lot sunnier in Washington.

Porter, meanwhile, is arguably a bottom third starting small forward in the league.

He needs to take a step forward for the Washington Wizards to be competitive in an Eastern Conference that features small forwards like LeBron James, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, and Jimmy Butler.

Different paths

The two Missourians took different paths to the NBA.

Beal was a star on the AAU circuit, on scouts’ radars for years.

In 2010, he helped Team USA win gold at the FIBA U17 World Championship, winning tournament MVP. In 2011 he was named the Gatorade National Player of the Year and Mr. Show Me Basketball, an award given to the top high school player in Missouri.

Porter learned his fundamentals and team-oriented style of play from intense games with his extended family.

He received national attention by leading Scott County Central, the same school his father balled for, to three consecutive state championships. He broke a school record with 35 rebounds in a state semi-finals game.

Beal stayed on his professional prospect path as a Florida one-and-done, while Porter stayed learning those fundamentals from two years in John Thompson’s Princeton offense.

Confidence

The Washington Wizards believe that the difference between winning 41 games last year and 50 games next year can be new head coach Scott Brooks, along with full seasons from Beal (started 35 games last year) and Morris (started 21 games last year).

Internally they view Brooks as their biggest addition of the off-season.

Of the 10 new head coaches hired, Brooks is the only one who has coached in the NBA finals.

He is now one of eight active head coaches to do so.

He brings a winning culture and a 62% win percentage.

He’s coached elite players and they’ve bought in.

Free agency started with a run at Al Horford that I foolishly let get my hopes up. As I cursed the Celtics, the Wizards used their money on peripheral moves, showing faith in their core.

Ian Mahinmi was brought in to address the major slip in defense after three years in the top 10.

Tomas Satoransky and a bigger role for Kelly Oubre will bring energy to the bench. The Trey Burke and Andrew Nicholson acquisitions were low-risk moves for young players.

Admittedly, I’ve found myself getting sucked in and excited for the Scott Brooks Era to begin.

Still the Wizards

Yet for this forlorn franchise (fourth worst record in the NBA since 1980), always lingering under the surface is a layer of doubt.

Maybe Ernie and Ted are giving big roles to Beal and Porter not because they’ve earned them, but because the Wizards have already invested so much.

Beal and Porter are the sole fruits of three years of “rebuilding” after John Wall was drafted.

Jan Vesely, drafted ahead of Kawhi Leonard and Klay Thompson, was a bust. If Beal or Porter fails, management fails. The front office had no choice but to double down.

There’s also the fact that Beal, in-essence, signed this contract the day the Washington Wizards turned down the Thunder’s trade offer of James Harden for him.

He has always been touted as the second half of an elite backcourt – the yin to Wall’s yang, the ice to his fire, the splash to his dash.

Not to mention that he was drafted over two All-NBA players in Damian Lillard and Andre Drummond.

Porter was picked thanks to a lucky jump in the lottery from eighth to third.

At that point it was apparent Wall was good enough that the Wizards would not be picking so high again anytime soon.

In a weak draft that has yet to yield an All-Star, Porter was a safe pick. The Wizards have not invested heavily in a small forward since, and he has been viewed as a core piece.

Bradley Beal

Last year, Beal made a jump that didn’t matter because he missed a ton of games… again.

If Beal scores at the rate he did last year but plays the number of minutes per game he averaged during the previous two, he will average 19.1 points per game. Last year he actually scored more points per-36 minutes than Wall did.

He did this by taking more threes, more shots at the rim, less long twos, and getting to the line more. Also by playing a lot of minutes against second units.

$128 million comes with the weight of the franchise, and Beal will have to take more ownership over the outcomes of games.

He is in position to do that, but you never know if a player can handle that burden until they actually do.

He can step up by attempting threes at an even higher rate than the career high he set last year.

He has never attempted five three-pointers per game for a season, despite being a career 39.7% 3-point shooter.

The Washington Wizards lost 100 threes when Jared Dudley signed with Phoenix, and Beal is the one who can replace them. I’d like to see him get in the top 20 in threes attempted.

He also needs to stoke his identity as a clutch performer. He has hit game-winning shots against the Spurs, Knicks, Magic, and Scott Brooks’ own Thunder.

He was the leading scorer in both of the team’s recent playoff runs. I always think back to Game-4 of the Hawks series when the Wizards were up 2-1 playing at home without Wall.

Beal scored 34 points and came pretty damn close to putting the Wizards up 3-1, but the Hawks won by 5.

One of Wall’s best traits is that his first instinct is to pass. What Beal needs to do is embrace his inner killer scorer.

Otto Porter

Porter is arguably the weakest link in the starting lineup. Smart people have different opinions about him, and the verdict is still out.

I said before that he is not a top-20 small forward.

Well I don’t know if that is actually true, so let’s count it down: James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward, Nicolas Batum, Jae Crowder, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Chandler Parsons, Danilo Gallinari, Andrew Wiggins, Andre Igoudala, DeMarre Carroll, Brandon Ingram, Danny Green, Luol Deng, Bazemore, Harrison Barnes, Rudy Gay, Trevor Ariza.

Those are 23 players who are arguably small forwards and arguably better than Porter.

The Washington Wizards are optimistic.

Last year when Porter was handed a starting job, he was basically thrown in the deep end when nobody was sure he could swim.

And he stayed afloat.

He ended up finishing second on the team in minutes played, rebounds, and steals, third in blocks, and fourth in points and made threes.

He showcased his versatility as one of only 15 players to average 5 rebounds, a steal, a three, and 1.5 assists per game.

Of those 15, Porter was the youngest.

But he is a free agent next summer and there are questions.

Grunfeld has not been afraid to cut bait in the past (see JaVale McGee and Kwame Brown), and could explore the trade market if Porter stumbles.

I question his fit next to Wall a bit because neither one of them is a reliable 3-point shooter.

Wall is at his best when paired with snipers.

From 2012-15 Martell Webster, Trevor Ariza, and Paul Pierce gave the Wizards an average of 1.9 threes a game on 40.6% shooting from the starting small forward position. Last year Porter made 1.3 threes a game on 36.7% shooting.

Porter also has yet to earn lockdown defender credentials.

He got attention for shutting down DeMar DeRozan in the 2015 playoffs, but has yet to follow it up. He is a good team defender with spider-arms, but offers little resistance to elite scoring wings.

I’m pro-Otto. I think he will play well next year while again seeing big minutes.

He has a savvy game and can be a necessary glue-guy. I think his defense will look better next to Morris and he will keep providing value on the glass.

Unknown Future

In 2011, Beal and Porter shared the court as teammates three years before they would as Washington Wizards. They were both on the West Team in the Jordan Brand Classic. Beal scored 15 points in the game, but Porter went scoreless in 10 minutes.

Beal’s future with the Wizards is now assured, but Porter’s is murkier. He is due to make a lot of money next summer, and the Wizards will have a tough decision.

I will end with a quote from Paul Pierce, who got as good a read as anyone on Porter during their season as teammates. “[Otto] doesn’t understand how good he is,” Pierce said last year, “I should punch him one day just to get him riled up.”