WHAT COULD HAPPEN

SCENARIO 1:

Congress-JD(S) survives

SCENARIO 2:

BJP returns to power

SCENARIO 3: SC intervenes

SCENARIO 4:

Fresh elections

NEW DELHI: The crisis in Karnataka continued on Wednesday with rebel MLAs of the Congress and the JD(S) moving the Supreme Court alleging that the assembly speaker had abandoned his constitutional duty and was deliberately taking time in accepting their resignations.The move came after speaker KR Ramesh Kumar on Tuesday said he would take at least six days to look into the resignations of the 13 rebel MLAs, giving some respite to the beleaguered Congress-JD(S) government.Live updates: Karnataka crisisThe halfway mark in the 224-member House is 113. Besides the 13 rebels MLAs, suspended Congress MLA Roshan Baig has also resigned -- although he claims he isn't joining the rebels. This means that if the resignations of the 14 MLAs, including Baig, are accepted, the Congress-JD(S) tally would reduce to 102. Meanwhile, for the BJP, with the support of the two independent MLAs and the lone BSP MLA, its number would increase to 108.Four or five of the 13 rebel MLAs return to the coalition fold by withdrawing their resignations and accept cabinet positions. If this doesn’t suffice, JD(S) and Congress could script a reverse poaching operation to get four or five BJP MLAs to resign.If the resignations of the rebels are accepted by the speaker, the BJP, with 108 MLAs (including 2 independent MLA and BSP MLA) will be in a position to form the government. The strength of the coalition would be reduced to 102 (including Baig). With 13 vacancies, the halfway-mark in the assembly would fall to 106 and the governor could invite the BJP to form the government.With 10 rebel Karnataka MLAs of the Congress and JD(S) coalition moving the Supreme Court alleging that the speaker has deliberately not accepted their resignations, SC may ask the speaker to make a decision earlier. It could even ask for a floor test in the assembly.If the resignations of the rebels are accepted and the two independent MLAs and the BSP MLA refuse to support the BJP (keeping it to 105), the governor may recommend president’s rule. Kumaraswamy may be asked to remain caretaker chief minister until elections are held, or the state be helmed by the governor until polls are held.