Rep. Michael Grimm appears to be his way to a landslide reelection victory on Tuesday, at least if a new Siena College poll is any indication.

The Staten Island Republican leads Democrat Domenic Recchia by a 19 points among likely voters in the district, a shocking result considering that forecasters expected the race to be very close.

Grimm’s lead defies the troubled year he has had. In January he threatened to break a New York reporter in half and throw him off a balcony. In April he was indicted by the federal government on fraud charges.

“Early on, this race looked like it was going to be one of the closest in the state – a former Democratic City Council member taking on an embattled incumbent Republican under Federal indictment in a district that is – at least by enrollment – dominated by Democrats,” Steven Greenberg, the Siena College pollster, said in a statement. “That no longer seems to be the case, as Grimm has taken a commanding 19-point lead into the final days of the campaign.”

The poll interviewed 713 likely voters in the district from Oct. 26-28. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points.