Dec 10, 2014

Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi may have gone to Syria with some of his associates to oversee an alternative plan to confront expected developments, in light of talk that the battle of Mosul is near. Meanwhile, IS movements in the Damascus countryside are raising questions about Baghdadi’s next target.

Tensions in Bir al-Qasab in the Damascus countryside have peaked, especially after IS announced two days ago that it is sending more military support to the area, a matter that raised the anxiety and stress levels among the armed factions’ leaders amid speculation that IS’ next goal is to enter Daraa. Or could that be preceded by fabricating events in east Ghouta, which these days is experiencing many assassinations, illustrating the danger awaiting the area?

The latest IS moves in some Syrian areas, whether in the East or South, raise many questions, especially as these moves came in conjunction with information indicating that Baghdadi recently moved from Iraq to Syria along with some members of the Shura Council and his inner circle. Although such leaks may not be innocent and may be intended to camouflage Baghdadi’s real location and give him an aura of mystery, opening the Deir ez-Zor front in this violent way and threatening all of Daraa and the Damascus countryside point to the existence of an alternative IS plan to confront the developments that could happen in the coming months, especially in light of the battle of Mosul.

Did IS’ leadership feel threatened by the danger in Iraq and decide to expand its influence in Syria? Or does it really have a surplus of power that allows it to fight on two fronts, in Syria and Iraq, and against all opponents at once?

There is no doubt that IS choosing Bir al-Qasab to be an IS center has raised fears in Daraa and eastern Ghouta. This confusion about the ultimate goal may be intentional in order to camouflage IS’ true intentions and to split up its opponents’ efforts.