2018 has not been a good year for the #MaybeLakersPick. Celtics fans celebrated the New Year with an 80% chance of receiving the pick, which as we all know needs to fall between 2 and 5 in the lottery.

If the season ended today, The Celtics would have the best possible odds that they can achieve for getting the Lakers pick (80.4%). — Ryan Bernardoni (@dangercart) December 30, 2017

Since the New Year, the Lakers have played well above .500 basketball and have separated themselves from the rest of the non-playoff teams who are trying to go in the opposite direction. That noise you hear with every Lakers win is the sound of another ping-pong ball bouncing out of the Celtics hopper and into the Philadelphia 76ers. I am not handling it well.

If you have been following our draft coverage here at CelticsHub, you know that I have been focusing on top-5 prospects up to this point. To quote my editor-in-chief, there’s a “non-zero chance” at receiving this Lakers pick, so I will revisit those players in the coming weeks (despite how much it bums me out). It’s time that we focus our 2018 draft energy on the Celtics own first-round pick, which is likely to fall in the late 20s. Late first-round picks are my least favorite type of pick. But like all non-lottery selections, if you hit on it, it can dramatically change the course of you franchise. Before we take a look at some 2018 prospects, let’s take a quick historical look at the much maligned late first-rounder.

I was able to filter through every player taken 25-30 from 2000 to 2012 and evaluate their value five years into their careers. There are 43 players above the Mark Madsen line (4,000+ minutes played), starting with Shannon Brown at 4,187 and finishing with Tony Parker at 13,068. Minutes played (MP) is as about a basic of stat as it gets, but at this point in the draft you’re just looking for guys that can get on the court. If the player you select cracks your rotation, it’s a success, especially considering you are likely already a 50+ win team. Last spring, I laid out a guide for finding gems in the second-round. There are some common traits that successful second-rounders have and picking in the late first is not really that different. The 43 late first-round selections that have played 4,000+ minutes from 2000-2012 look like this:

40% wings, 35% Ball Handlers and 25% Bigs.

60% had/2+ years of college basketball experience, 28% International, 12% HS/1-and-done players.

86% of the college basketball players selected played in Power 5 conferences

So, not unlike successful second-round picks, the best type of player to target in this range is an experienced player coming from the highest level of play possible, who preferably plays on the perimeter. Avoid projects, underproductive college players and super high-usage guys and if you are going to take a swing at some upside, gamble on pedigree (McDonald’s All-Americans, 5-star recruits, etc) or international bigs. Here are the successful (some more than others) picks 25-30 in the past 5 years. As you’ll see, they mostly fit the description.

2013: Reggie Bullock, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert

Reggie Bullock, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert 2014: Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanović, Kyle Anderson

Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanović, Kyle Anderson 2015: Jarrell Martin, Larry Nance, Jr.

Jarrell Martin, Larry Nance, Jr. 2016: Pascal Siakam, Skal Labissiere, Dejounte Murray

Pascal Siakam, Skal Labissiere, Dejounte Murray 2017 (so far): Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart

Danny Ainge has a decent history with picks in this part of the draft but his big hits were quite a while ago, and the large majority of anyone’s late 1st round picks will be busts. We’re focusing on the 25-30 range, but let’s look at Danny’s history of picks from 20-35 just to get a bigger group:

2003: Kendrick Perkins (27)

Kendrick Perkins (27) 2004: Rajon Rondo (21), Delonte West (24), Tony Allen (25)

Rajon Rondo (21), Delonte West (24), Tony Allen (25) 2007: Gabe Pruitt (32)

Gabe Pruitt (32) 2008: JR Giddens (30)

JR Giddens (30) 2011: Mar’Shon Brooks (25), JaJuan Johnson (27)

Mar’Shon Brooks (25), JaJuan Johnson (27) 2012: Jared Sullinger (21), Fab Mello (22)

Jared Sullinger (21), Fab Mello (22) 2015: RJ Hunter (28), Jordan Mickey (32)

RJ Hunter (28), Jordan Mickey (32) 2016: Ante Zizic (23)

I honestly don’t care that these are mostly duds, it is what it is. Hitting on a late first-rounder at this point in the rebuild would be huge, though. It would either add another attractive trade chip for Anthony Davis or a cost-effective role-player on an increasingly expensive roster. Without further ado, here are 5 guys to keep an eye on for the 2018 draft.

Keita Bates-Diop, Sr, The Ohio State University



Age: 22

Physical Tools: 6’7 (7’2″ wingspan)/235 lbs

Basic Stats: 32.8 MPG/19.4/8.8/1.7

Shooting: Basic (55.0/35.8/77.9%) Advanced (.58 TS%/.55EFG%/25.7% TM PossPG/1.13 PTS/POS)

Pedigree: 2018 Big Ten Player of the Year, First-team All-Big Ten, Wooden Award Finalist

ESPN Ranking: 22

Bates-Diop has the perfect 3-an-D frame and game. He’s mature, accomplished and well-coached. His strength and wingspan will allow him to defend all over the court and the fact that he’s played multiple roles over his four years at OSU should make his transition from Big Ten Player of the Year to NBA role player a smooth one. His shooting is a bit streaky and he does not show much offensive creativity, but his mechanics are strong and he should have no problem shooting open NBA 3s and driving closeouts. He has a crafty mid-to-low post game that isn’t pretty, but it’s effective (reminds me of Marcus Smart). KBD will fit nicely on a good team where his role is clear and would push Semi Ojeleye for wing rotations minutes from day one.

Moritz Wagner, Jr. Michigan (via Germany)



Age: 20.9

Physical Tools: 6’11 (7’0″ wingspan)/235 lbs

Basic Stats: 27.5 MPG/14.7/7.2/.8

Shooting: Basic (61.2/39.4/70.5%) Advanced (.62 TS%/.60EFG%/18.6% TM PossPG/1.22 PTS/POS)

Pedigree: 2018 2nd-team All-Big Ten, 2017 Honorable Mention

ESPN Ranking: 55

The clip I posted here is a year old, but I had to introduce you to Mori (not sure if they call him that) with a 2-minute video of him ending Rick Pitino’s coaching career. Since he put Ricky P out to pasture, he’s led Michigan to a Big Ten Conference title, a year-end top 10 ranking and was named 2nd-team All-Big Ten. Wagner has both an international background and plays in John Beilein’s 2-guard motion offensive at Michigan; he’s no stranger to ball movement. As a stretch big, he can shoot it with range and accuracy, put it on the floor and operate out of the post. His value in the NBA will be his 3-pt shooting, but he’s more than just a catch-and-shoot threat. A hot March may propel him up draft boards, but if he’s around in this range he would be a great fit with Boston. #TheisandMori

Khyri Thomas, Jr. Creighton



Age: 21.7

Physical Tools: 6’3 (6’10” wingspan)/210 lbs

Basic Stats: 31.5 MPG/15.7/4.2/2.9

Shooting: Basic (63.6/43.1/79.5%) Advanced (.67 TS%/.64EFG%/17.0% TM PossPG/1.27 PTS/POS)

Pedigree: 2X Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Second-team All-Big East

ESPN Ranking: 21

#KHYRIFENSE!!!!! Khyri Thomas was created in a Danny Ainge/Brad Stevens laboratory. If he’s around when the Celtics are picking, lock it in. At 6’3″, 210 with a 6’10 wingspan, Thomas would fill the void created if the Celtics lose either Marcus Smart or Terry Rozier in the near future. He’s a defensive terror and one of only 10 players in Big East history to win DPOY twice (one of only four guards). Although Creighton is not in a power conference, the current Big East is as close as it gets and it has high-level hoops. What’s even more exciting is that Thomas makes shots, hitting 63% from 2 and 43% from 3. He’ll have to adjust to the deeper line, but that’s just business as usual. I love, LOVE the idea of adding #KHYRIFENSE to this Celtics roster. He’s currently expected to be off the board but he wouldn’t have to fall far, or the trade-up price wouldn’t be too high, to get him to Boston.

Jalen Brunson, Jr., Villanova



Age: 21.5

Physical Tools: 6’2 (6’3″ wingspan)/190 lbs

Basic Stats: 32.0 MPG/19.0/3.0/4.8

Shooting: Basic (60.2/40.5/80.6%) Advanced (.65 TS%/.61EFG%/22.7% TM PossPG/1.20 PTS/POS)

Pedigree: 2X First-team All-Big East, 2017 First-team All-American, NCAA Champion, McDonald’s All-American

ESPN Ranking: 39

Back to the Big East to visit an old friend, Jalen Brunson. Not much mystery to Brunson at this point; he’s every stereotype about a “winner” rolled up into one. The son of an NBA journeyman PG, he’ll know what it takes to be successful in the league and make everyone on draft night throw their hands up and say “they got HIM?!” when a 55+ win team grabs him. He would be an immediate upgrade over Shane Larkin and give the Celtics playmaking in a more traditional way. We know Brad likes to only carry three ball handlers, but he’s smart and talented enough to find ways to contribute without the ball in his hands. Let’s just hope the Spurs don’t take him. That would be annoying.

Mitchell Robinson, STRAIGHT TO THE LEAGUE

Age: 19

Physical Tools: 7’1″ (7’4″ wingspan), 223

Stats are from HS, so who cares…

Pedigree: 5-Star Recruit, McDonald’s All American 2017

ESPN Ranking: 16

In one of the more bizarre college basketball stories this season, Mitchell left Western Kentucky (yes, Western) to prep for the draft. Who would have thought that a blue-chip recruit choosing Western Kentucky ended up being a bit fishy and not working out? Anyway, this sort of works against most of my theories EXCEPT, gambling on freak, mystery big men. Let’s just pretend he’s international and he’s the next Capela/Gobert. The reality is that talent like this isn’t normally in this range and why not take a chance. Word is that he’s still growing and filling out, he’s already a great athlete who at the very least will have gravity around the rim. Get him with The Godfather, get him in a winning situation, and maybe the Celtics get the above-the-rim length they’ve been desperate for.