Guardian writers' prediction: 4th (NB: this is not necessarily David Hytner's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)

Last season's position: 3rd

Odds to win the league: 6-1

At the time of writing, Cesc Fábregas remains an Arsenal player. Apologies for beginning a season preview with a excruciatingly tedious fact but the excruciatingly tedious summer saga of Fábregas and Barcelona actually holds the key to what lies ahead at the Emirates Stadium.

Since Fábregas dropped the bombshell on Arsène Wenger at the end of last season that he wanted to return to the loving bosom of the club that once nurtured him, we have been treated to a drip-feed of stories from the Spanish press about how the midfielder's mother/father/gardener/goldfish/priest/shrink and, above all, the man himself craves the reunion. And it will happen AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

OK, next week. Mmm, maybe the week after.

There has been one rather large obstacle. Fábregas is under contract at Arsenal and Wenger, backed strongly by his board, is refusing to cave in and sell. Wenger seems to grow more stubborn by the year. He has a tried and trusted way of doing things and he isn't going to change it now. Hence, so far this summer, he has waved off a few thirty-somethings and signed a couple of promising but generally unheralded players from the French league. Marouane Chamakh is probably best known for being the striker that Wenger has wanted to sign for the past year but he and the defender Laurent Koscielny will undoubtedly improve under the Frenchman's tutelage.

Arsenal's supporters like Wenger's stubbornness on Fábregas. The manager has previously decided when big names leave the club, not the other way around and he has given the impression that Barcelona will freeze over before he relents.

If the Spanish champions were to make a really huge offer, rather than the somewhat derisory £29m that they tabled on 1 June – an offer in the Real Madrid/Cristiano Ronaldo ballpark – then the situation could be different. Arsenal might sacrifice one world-class player if they could get the money in exchange for three or four new ones, even though, in such a scenario, there would, invariably, be doubts over whether Wenger would spend it. Transfer market largesse is so west London. Anyway, where is the available world-class talent?

Barcelona believe that having Fábregas's will is nine-tenths of the battle but, in the absence of a transfer request, it is not. Arsenal are far from being a one-man team but Wenger knows how badly he needs his captain and were he to lose him now, after two-and-a-half months of steadfast refusal and with the season so close, the consequences would be dreadful. Nobody at Arsenal can consider that.

Fábregas was fabulous last season; the abiding image is of him cracking home a Champions League penalty with a broken leg, coincidentally against Barcelona, and if he can summon up similar levels this season Arsenal will again make it to April in contention for the most meaningful prizes. If Robin van Persie can also stay fit, the club's supporters might be able to dream. The loss of the striker for five months to ankle ligament damage last season was devastating.

Questions linger over Fábregas. Will he sulk if he does not get his move? How will the fans receive him? His affection for Arsenal and Wenger, however, has never been in doubt. All being well upon the closure of the transfer window, expect that particular drum to be thumped.

Arsenal's mission is to take the step forward that has eluded them in recent seasons; to win the big games against the biggest teams when it matters the most. To turn all the prettiness and potential into the hard currency of silverware.

Wenger needs a new goalkeeper and cover in central defence. Is there anyone out there as good as William Gallas, who he has released? Also gone is Sol Campbell and, for what it's worth, Mikaël Silvestre.

The squad does not yet look radically stronger than that which finished last season empty-handed, although Wenger will reason that injuries can surely not strike with the same severity again. He would rather have his existing players fit than any number of new signings but he has to accept that many of his troops are no strangers to the treatment table.

It is an important season for Theo Walcott, after his frustrations last time out, and it is an important one, too, for Samir Nasri, who appears on the brink of a major breakthrough. Arsenal regularly offer a similar impression only to disappoint but Wenger believes his painstakingly moulded squad is finally ready to prove the doubters wrong. It will take the Premier League title to do so. Other big guns must be favoured ahead of them.