John McCain has repeatedly said, probably accurately, that Hamas would prefer Obama as the next president. But unfortunately for McCain, an even more prominent terror organization has offered a more-or-less endorsement — of McCain himself. Oops. As The Washington Post noted:

“Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election,” said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the “failing march of his predecessor,” President Bush.

The commentary is on a password-protected site that is one of the most authoritative for Al Qaeda. It’s not 100 percent sure that this is the view of Osama bin Laden, but there’s a supposition that al-Hesbah generally reflects the views of Al Qaeda’s leadership. And among security specialists, the endorsement is no surprise at all. There has been much discussion among experts about whether Al Qaeda will “vote” in the run-up to election by engaging in a terror attack in the United States, so as to help McCain. The same essay on al-Hesbah specifically called for a terror attack in the U.S.; as the A.P. put it: “Al-Qaida supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency.”

The idea is that Al Qaeda would be hurt by the election of Obama, because he doesn’t fit Arab or Muslim images of white colonial oppressors, and thus isn’t so useful in recruiting suicide bombers. There’s generally a sense that an American leader with a more military instinct, inclined to firing cruise missiles, is the best recruiting tool. In 2004, Al Qaeda issued a video shortly before the general election, and some thought it was Al Qaeda’s attempt to re-elect Bush. Maybe it worked, because it probably reminded voters about security issues, and Bush polled much better on national security than John Kerry did.

Joseph Nye, one of the smartest analysts around, has warned that Al Qaeda may try to intervene this time with a terror attack before the election, and I’m afraid that’s a valid concern. An attack would probably shift a few percentage points to McCain from Obama, and in a close election that would make a difference — particularly if the terror attacks were in, say, Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia. Let’s hope that Al Qaeda doesn’t have assets in place to mount an attack, but I’ll breathe more easily after election day.

The National Security Network has an excellent discussion of the issue.