Political mess means long, hot summer ahead

Hot summer road in Bangkok. (Bangkok Post file photo)

If a national unity government is not an option, will a minority one do? For how long?

Looking ahead, it's clear Thailand is heading for yet another political impasse. The next juncture will possibly be between calling another election or reverting to yet another military coup.

Trappings are many, most if not all of them seems insoluble.

Despite a lull in politicking as the nation pauses to focus on the upcoming coronation, the status of the March 24 election is a worry.

The Election Commission's allegedly shaky performance has provoked several complaints and petitions for its members to be removed. It is highly unusual for the EC to admit it was not sure how to calculate the number of party-list seats to comply with the mixed member proportional representation system prescribed by the constitution.

If the EC is convicted of any mistakes, the risk is high that the election will be nullified.

A fresh election would be tiring for all involved. It would also send the country back into an area of unpredictability as all parties will still have to play by the same old rules, which have proven to be somewhat problematic if not impractical for the Thai political landscape and society.

Still, this could be the most positive setback compared to the other scenarios.

For now, the maths don't lie. No matter how the equation between the March 24 election results and political party ideological lines is manipulated, the outcome remains the same dead end.

Unofficial results may see Pheu Thai winning the highest number of constituency seats, giving it the moral legitimacy to form a government. Alas, even if the party could put together a coalition with a majority number of MPs, it won't get past the first hurdle of setting up a government.

The charter demands that the 250-member Senate join the 500-member House in voting to select the prime minister before the government can be formed.

Pheu Thai, which stands opposite the military junta, can't expect to win any votes from the Senate, appointed by the National Council for Peace and Order whose head is running as the prime minister candidate for its rival, the Palang Pracharath Party.

It's impossible for Pheu Thai to garner more than 375 votes from the House alone to win the PM vote as more than 200 MPs are presumably allied with the pro-military PPRP camp. Defections are unthinkable.

Needless to say that Pheu Thai and its coalition partners would cry foul if it were barred from setting up a government because of the junta-backed Senate.

The military affiliate PPRP faces the same dilemma of falling short of achieving a comfortable majority. The party has been trying to push ahead with a rather flimsy argument that it won the majority of votes even though that criteria does not count for anything in democratic tradition.

Unfortunately, even if it embraces ganja, the flagship policy of the Bhumjaithai Party which will likely have more than 50 MPs, and gain another 20-plus supporters from small parties that might be allocated party-list seats from the EC's controversial calculation, the PPRP is likely to gather only slightly more than 250 seats.

It's true the PPRP-led coalition will pass the first test of the PM vote thanks to support from the senators but how about the real task of government?

Such a slim majority wouldn't work when it comes to legislation. The large number of coalition partners would also pave the way for infighting and instability and the government would likely become a lame duck. After a short tenure, it is likely dissolution of the House would become inevitable.

It's too bad the poll did not produce a clear-cut result and consensus that would allow the country to move forward in a well-defined, democratic direction supported by a majority of voters, whether of the left or right.

Blame it on the powers-that-be for coming up with such complicated rules and manoeuvrings that have generated endless arguments? Blame it on anti-military camps for failing to unite in more meaningful ways to stand against dictatorship? Blame it on the voters who failed to see the big issue?

Whatever the case, here the country is at political loggerheads as the key players plot the treacherous moves and contentious tricks they will deploy to destroy their political rivals in order to win at all costs.

Along the way, military intervention will be lurking at every corner. It's going to be a long, hot summer.