Victoria's Rapid Enrolment Growth

Updated

The strain that population growth is placing on Melbourne's infrastructure is a recurring backdrop to this year's Victorian election.

Whether it is fast trains to the regions, upgrades to Melbourne's public transport, or arguments over planning laws, the promises from both sides of politics are framed as response to the surge in Melbourne's population.

That growth has been most spectacular on Melbourne's fringe. Between the 2014 state election and the end of September 2018, enrolments have risen 33.2 per cent in Cranbourne and 28.2 per cent in neighbouring Bass, with most of Bass' growth in newly urban hot spots near Pakenham and Cranbourne.

To Melbourne's north, Yan Yean enrolments have risen 27.7 per cent and 30.8% in neighbouring Yuroke. Tarneit in Melbourne's west has risen 21.6 per cent, and South Barwon south of Geelong has seen an enrolment rise of 19.8 per cent.

Some of these growth figures have immediate political implications. Cranbourne is Labor's fifth most marginal seat and sitting Labor MP Jude Perera is retiring. More than a quarter of voters will have moved into the electorate since 2014.

Rapid population growth is tilting the demographics of Bass and South Barwon, both marginal Liberal seats. Bass was once the first rural seat south-east of Melbourne, but now has a rapidly urbanising northern end.

The growth hot spots on Melbourne's urban fringe will have political implications in two year's time when the state's electoral boundaries will be re-drawn.

Victoria has 100,000 more voters than was predicted at the time of the 2012/13 redistribution. That the growth would be concentrated on Melbourne's fringe was recognised at the time by the Boundaries Commission.

Based on November 2012 enrolments, Cranbourne was set 9.8 per cent below the state quota, and predicted to be 8.5 per cent over by July 2018. As at the end of September 2018, Cranbourne is actually 33.2 per cent above quota.

Cranbourne's enrolment has risen from 37,425 in November 2012 to 45,863 at the November 2014 state election, to 61,110 at the end of September 2018.

The boundaries Commission had predicted that eight seats would be more than ten percent over quota by July 2018, but now the actual number is 25. Of those seats, 18 are held by Labor.

The political implications of enrolment growth is revealed by the map below, which colour codes the state's electorates by variation from quota. Purple electorates are over quota, orange electorates under quota. The darker the colour the further an electorate is away from quota, with seats like Bass, Cranbourne, Yuroke and Yan Yean showing darkest purple.

Electorates with black borders are those that vary from average by more than 10 per cent.

The map of Melbourne reveals that the eastern suburbs are coloured solid orange, with seven neighbouring electorates all more than 10 per cent under quota.

The map strongly suggests that the redistribution will repeat the pattern of the last two in abolishing seats in eastern Melbourne and creating new seats in the city's west.

Of the 16 seats in Melbourne's east, the Liberal Party currently hold 15. Of the 26 seats north and west of the Yarra, Labor holds 24 and the Greens two. South east Melbourne is more politically mixed, a patchwork of Labor and Liberal seats, generally more marginal than in other parts of Melbourne.

With the Liberal party dominating areas where seats will be abolished, and Labor strongest where seats will be created, the next state redistribution will be a problem for the Liberal Party whatever the election result on November 24.

Topics: state-elections, melbourne-3000, vic

First posted