THRISSUR: Migration is leading to a significant dip in Christian population in Kerala, and studies have indicated their share may come down from the current level of 17 to 10% by 2030, according to writer and former DGP Alexander Jacob.

The former police chief made this observation while speaking at a seminar on’Kerala through the Centuries’, organized by the Kerala Historical Research Society (KHRS), here. His observations were based on the findings of studies conducted by the experts at the Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Thiruvananthapuram. He said Christians have been finding it easy to get citizenship in European countries and the US. Demographer Prof KC Zachariah of the CDS said the dip in population is largely seen among the Syrian Christians . Demographer Prof Irudaya Rajan, who had been collaborating with Prof Zachariah in migration and population studies, said migration and low fertility rate have contributed to the slide in Christian population in state. Unlike Muslims, Christians in Kerala have been migrating with their families. The trend of permanently settling down in the host country is also predominant among Christians, Prof Rajan said.

“The fertility rate among Christians have come down to one per couple which was over 2.5 about three decades ago. The population share of the community will remain steady only if the fertility rate is above two per couple,” Rajan added. Rajan pointed out that the fertility rate has also come down among Hindus and Muslims in Kerala. The fertility rate was over four among Muslims about three decades ago, and it has come down to 2.3 to 2.4 now. Similarly among the Hindus it was over 2.5 three decades ago and now it 1.8 to 1.9, he said.

Zachariah, however, said the share of Muslim population was growing in Kerala considering the high number of population in the reproductive age group. “The share of this communities was almost equal before 1980s, and if the present trend continues Muslims will double the Christian population in Kerala by 2050,” Zachariah said.

