Buy Low on Derrick Henry?

tell me about it.

Derrick Henry has been on the field for just 41.4% of snaps. He’s averaging 3.0 YPC and has been targeted as a receiver just four times in four games. Maybe he’s too big and unwieldy, maybe his size and one dimensionality make him a liability at the running back position.

I’m sure that’s what’s going through the mind of a Henry fantasy owner right about now. And it’s times like these, when things seem most bleak, that we have the opportunity to buy low.

Henry is 24th in juke rate (evaded tackles divided by touches), and has faced the most stacked boxes in the league. In fact, he’s averaging 7.7 defenders in the box per snap!

This is — at least, in part — because two games were started by sack-of-potato journeyman, Blaine Gabbert, after Marcus Mariota sustained an elbow injury in week one. However, the Titans came alive in week four, hanging 26 points on a stout Eagles’ defense. The beauty of it: Mariota looked great, throwing for 344 yards and two touchdowns. A new offensive system can take time to find its groove, and I believe that’s what’s happening here. With a competent passing game, scoring opportunities will increase and defenses will be forced to ease up on the run. We know what Derrick Henry can do when he gets to the second level:

Dion Lewis is also a buy-low candidate for many of the same reasons. He’s been moderately more efficient and sees almost all of the passing targets. He also leads in snap share, taking 63.1%, although the difference in actual usage has been modest (52.5% — 47.5%).