Chinese academics recently delivered a stark warning to the country’s leaders: China is facing its most precipitous decline in population in decades, setting the stage for potential demographic, economic and even political crises in the near future.

For years China’s ruling Communist Party implemented a series of policies intended to slow the growth of the world’s most populous nation, including limiting the number of children couples could have to one. The long term effects of those policies mean the country will soon enter an era of “negative growth,” or a contraction in the size of the total population.

Annual population growth Great Chinese Famine “Later, longer, fewer” policy is promoted. One-child policy becomes constitutional. One-child policy is introduced. Two-child policy is introduced. 1.5% 1 0.5 0 Projection -0.5 1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census International Data Base Annual population growth Great Chinese Famine “Later, longer, fewer” policy is promoted. One-child policy becomes constitutional. One-child policy is introduced. Two-child policy is introduced. 1.5% 1 0.5 0 Projection -0.5 1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census International Data Base Annual population growth Great Chinese Famine “Later, longer, fewer” policy is promoted. One-child policy becomes constitutional. One-child policy is introduced. Two-child policy is introduced. 1.5% 1 0.5 0 Projection -0.5 1951 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 2000 ’10 ’20 ’30 ’40 ’50 Source: U.S. Census International Data Base Annual population growth Great Chinese Famine “Later, longer, fewer” policy is promoted. One-child policy is introduced. One-child policy becomes constitutional. Two-child policy is introduced. 1.5% 1 0.5 0 Projection -0.5 1951 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 2000 ’10 ’20 ’30 ’40 ’50 Source: U.S. Census International Data Base Annual population growth One-child policy is introduced. Great Chinese Famine One-child policy becomes constitutional. Two-child policy is introduced. 1.5% 1 0.5 0 Projection -0.5 1960 ’80 2000 ’20 ’40 Source: U.S. Census International Data Base

A report, issued this month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is the latest recognition that while China’s notorious “one child” policy may have achieved its original aim of slowing population growth, it has also created new challenges for the government.

A decline in the birth rate and an increase in life expectancy means there will soon be too few workers able to support an enormous and aging population, the academy warned. The academy estimated the contraction would begin in 2027, though others believe it would come sooner or has already begun.

The government has recognized the worrisome demographic trend and in 2013 began easing enforcement of the “one child” policy in certain circumstances. It then raised the limit to two children for all families in 2016, in hopes of encouraging a baby boom. It did not work.

6 One-child policy is introduced. Two-child policy is introduced. 5 4 3 2 1 Fertility rate Births per woman Projected 1961 1980 2000 2020 2040 2050 Sources: World Bank; U.S. Census International Data Base 6 One-child policy is introduced. Two-child policy is introduced. 5 4 3 2 1 Fertility rate Births per woman Projected 1961 1980 2000 2020 2040 2050 Sources: World Bank; U.S. Census International Data Base Fertility rate Births per woman One-child policy is introduced. Two-child policy is introduced. 6 5 4 3 2 1 1961 1980 2000 2020 2050 Sources: World Bank; U.S. Census International Data Base

After a brief uptick that year, the birth rate fell again in 2017, with 17.2 million babies born compared to 17.9 in 2016. Although the number of families having a second child rose, the overall number of births continued to drop.

In 2018, the total number of births fell to 15.2 million, a drop of nearly 12 percent nationally from 2017. Some cities and provinces have reported declines in local birth rates of as much as 35 percent.

On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in 2019, the total number of births fell for the third year, to 14.6 million.

Number of newborn babies Projection under two-child policy* Projection under one-child policy 14.6 million babies were born Second child First child * Based on medium fertility variants Sources: China Bureau of Statistics; Study on Measurement of Population Changes with Implementation of a Comprehensive Two-child Policy, Peian Wang at China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission Number of newborn babies Projection under two-child policy* 14.6 million babies were born Projection under one-child policy Second child First child * Based on medium fertility variants Sources: China Bureau of Statistics; Study on Measurement of Population Changes with Implementation of a Comprehensive Two-child Policy, Peian Wang at China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission Number of newborn babies Projection under two-child policy* Projection under one-child policy Second child 14.6 million First child * Based on medium fertility variants Sources: China Bureau of Statistics; Study on Measurement of Population Changes with Implementation of a Comprehensive Two-child Policy, Peian Wang at China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission

The fertility rate required to maintain population levels is 2.1 children per woman, a figure known as “replacement level fertility.”

The fertility rates in many advanced economies have fallen as their societies have become wealthier and older.

China’s fertility rate has officially fallen to 1.6 children per woman, but even that number is disputed.

Yi Fuxian, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has written that China’s government has obscured the actual fertility rate to disguise the disastrous ramifications of the “one child” policy. According to his calculations, the fertility rate averaged 1.18 between 2010 and 2018.

Fertility rate by country (2017) Replacement level fertility Singapore S. Korea Japan U.S. India Philippines Niger China Source: The World Factbook, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Fertility rate by country (2017) Replacement level fertility Singapore Japan U.S. India Philippines Niger China Source: The World Factbook, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Fertility rate by country (2017) Replacement level fertility Singapore Japan India Philippines Niger China Source: The World Factbook, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Fertility rate by country (2017) Replacement level fertility Singapore Japan India Philippines China Source: The World Factbook, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Fertility rate by country (2017) Singapore Japan China U.S. Replacement level fertility India Philippines Niger Source: The World Factbook, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency

As in other countries, there are myriad reasons for the declining birth rate, including rising prosperity and new opportunities for women. China’s economic expansion has created a society where many young couples now struggle with economic pressures -- including rising education and housing costs -- making it difficult to have even one child, let alone two.

But the most profound cause of the drop, Professor Yi and others said, was the “one child” policy. Fewer children were born, and because of cultural preferences for male offspring, fewer of them were girls.

Chinese women born during the years following the “one child” policy are now reaching or have already passed their peak fertility age. There are simply not enough of them to sustain the country’s population level, despite new efforts by the government to encourage families to have two children.

Female population 2019 2050 projection Women population in their 20s to 40s will drop by almost 30%. More than 35 million women will be older than 84 years old by 2050. 1 year old 20 50 84 Source: United Nations Population Division, 2019 Female population 2019 2050 projection Women population in their 20s to 40s will drop by almost 30%. More than 35 million women will be older than 84 years old by 2050. 1 year old 20 50 84 Source: United Nations Population Division, 2019 Female population 2019 2050 projection More than 35 million women will be older than 84 years old by 2050. Women population in their 20s to 40s will drop by almost 30%. 1 year old 20 50 84 Source: United Nations Population Division, 2019

The looming demographic crisis could be the Achilles heel of China’s stunning economic transformation over the last 40 years.

The declining population could create an even greater burden on China’s economy and its labor force. With fewer workers in the future, the government could struggle to pay for a population that is growing older and living longer.

A decline in the working-age population could also slow consumer spending and thus have an impact on the economy in China and beyond.

Many compare China’s demographic crisis to the one that stalled Japan’s economic boom in the 1990s.

100% More than 64 years old 80 60 Working age 15-64 years old 40 20 Younger than 15 years old Projected 1960 ’80 2000 ’20 ’40 ’60 ’80 2100 Source: United Nations Population Division, 2019 100% > 64 years old 80 60 Working age 40 15-64 years old 20 < 15 years old Projected 1960 ’80 2000 ’20 ’40 ’60 ’80 2100 Source: United Nations Population Division, 2019 Projected 100% > 64 years old 80 60 Working age 15-64 years old 40 20 < 15 years old 1960 2000 ’50 2100 Source: United Nations Population Division, 2019

Some experts believe the population has already started shrinking. In a recent paper, Dr. Yi and Su Jian, an economist at Peking University, argued that the population contracted in 2018, the first year it has done so since the famines of 1961 and 1962 induced by the Great Leap Forward, Mao’s industrialization campaign. The researchers said inaccurate census estimates had obscured the actual population and fertility rates.