It has been over 10 months since I last wrote a Mythbusting post. Since the Thursday night victory over the Jets provides us with a longer wait for the next Patriots game, this is as good a time as any to deal with a certain PFF writer named Sam Monson. Monson, if you aren't familiar with the name, is the guy that got himself famous when he declared that Tom Brady is no longer a top-5 QB this summer. If you are sick and tired of hearing all the "Is Brady declining?" headlines, you have this man to blame for them.

This wasn't the first time PFF had done something remarkably stupid to get attention. They caused quite a stir when they ranked Tom Brady, the only unanimous MVP in history, the 33rd best player in 2010 - lower than quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. To say that PFF struggles evaluating quarterbacks is like saying water is wet.

As with all attempts at busting myths, there has to be a reason. To be perfectly honest, I never wanted to touch this one. The opinion of Monson is just that, an opinion. It was supported by a system derived by a bunch of guys that evaluate the game of football in a vacuum, a vacuum as empty as their heads. Then the Kansas City game happened. Monson saw his opportunity to make his voice heard once again. He opened his Week 4 Analysis Notebook with the following:

It’s time to address the Tom Brady thing.

And address it he did. He picked the worst game of the Patriots season, a game in which everyone not named Matt Slater played awful, to come out of hiding with his "I told you so!" The best summation of his article comes right before he starts cherry-picking plays to point out Brady's deficiencies:

We saw Brady on Monday night against the Chiefs post his poorest PFF grade of the season, as well as some pretty wretched looking conventional statistics. He threw for just 159 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions for a passer rating of 59.9, but more than that, we got to see on prime time what the tape has been showing for a while; Brady just not playing well. The offensive line is certainly a major factor. His protection has abandoned him just when he needs it most, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he isn’t part of the problem. On plays where Brady has felt no pressure this season he has a passer rating of just 83.0 and a PFF grade of -4.7.



While Monson is willing to concede that the line played a role in Brady's struggles, there were some plays Brady was simply missing. But was he really missing more often than he used to? Was Brady's decline really something that had been occurring for years and it simply slipped under the radar? It is from here that we can move on to some myth busting.

Myth: Tom Brady is declining and it has been happening for some time.

Monson's attempt to defend himself came at the perfect time. By conventional measures, Brady's decline could be explained by simple graphs. Below shows his passer rating each season since 2010, with his 2014 passer rating as it was right after the Chiefs loss.

The decline is very easy to see. It also wasn't simply a matter of efficiency. Brady's volume numbers were even on a decline. But the game isn't played in a vacuum, and not all statistics are created equal. That's why the folks at Football Outsiders created two really amazing stats. The first, DVOA, is an opponent-adjusted percentage that represents how much better or worse a team, unit, or player was than average. When it comes to offense, the higher the percentage above 0%, the better. The second, DYAR, is an opponent-adjusted figure that represents how much more "value" a player provides than if a replacement level player was in their position for the snaps during the season. If you are having any confusion, please click on the hyperlinks and read their in-depth description of their stats. They explain it better than I ever could. The most important thing you need to know going forward is this: the higher the number, the better.

I thought it would be a good idea to provide Brady's numbers in these categories all the way back to his peak, which I'm most can agree was 2007.

Year DVOA DVOA Rank DYAR DYAR Rank Passer Rating Passer Rating Rank 2007 54.10% 1 2674 1 117.2 1 2009 40.40% 2 2021 1 96.2 9 2010 46.70% 1 1918 1 111 1 2011 35.40% 3 1997 3 105.6 3 2012 35.10% 1 2035 1 98.7 6 2013 10.90% 11 979 6 87.3 17

Now you might look at 2009 or 2012 and wonder how Brady's DVOA and DYAR were so high despite his passer rating not being with the "elite." The reason is, as explained before, that these are opponent-adjusted stats. This means that the quality of the average opponent weights one compared how their peers performed in similar circumstances. In 2009, for example, the Patriots played half their season against the league's top 8 defenses in passer rating allowed:

Team Passer Rating Allowed Rank Jets 58.8 1 Jets 58.8 1 Bills 61.1 2 Bills 61.1 2 Saints 68.6 3 Panthers 71.7 5 Ravens 71.9 6 Broncos 75 8



Clearly playing that gauntlet of passing defenses would prevent even the best quarterbacks from putting up great efficiency numbers. That's why DVOA and DYAR are such good stats. But, and there is a but, Brady still dropped off in 2013. DVOA and DYAR clearly show that Brady's "decline" seems overblown as he was the best quarterback in 2012. To suggest he wasn't in the top 5 quarterbacks after one season seems like a huge rush to judgment. The question that remains to be answered though is why did Brady suddenly drop off? His DVOA wasn't even top 10, and his DYAR was partly a result of him simply throwing a lot.

What about the offense as a whole? Maybe it could give some insight. Here is the Patriots offense DVOA, passing offense DVOA, and scoring with their league ranks from 2010-2012.

Year Offense DVOA Offense DVOA Rank Passing Offense DVOA Passing Offense DVOA Rank Team Points Scored Team Scoring Rank Team Yards Rank 2010 42.2% 1 67.5% 1 518 1 8 2011 31.9% 3 55.3% 2 513 3 2 2012 30.8% 1 53.9% 1 557 1 1 2013 16.4% 4 28.2% 6 444 3 7

Strangely, the Patriots passing offense got a DVOA rank of 6th in 2013 while Brady got a DVOA rank of 11th. The other numbers hold up to their counterparts however. There is obviously a statistical decline from the Tom Brady of 2007-2012 and the Tom Brady of 2013. The same holds true for the offense in general. Why? While it might not be fair to absolve Brady completely, the most likely reason for the dip was because of the skill position players the Patriots lost.

If you take a look at the "Team Points Scored" and "Team Scoring Rank" in the chart above you will see the Patriots with three 500+ point seasons. The Patriots from 2010-2012 became the second team in history to have three consecutive 500+ point seasons, the first team being the 1999-2001 Rams. Just like those Rams, the Patriots had a group of core players on offense that made them very difficult to stop. The Rams had the revolutionary Mike Martz offense, the Patriots had the two tight end offense that resulted largely in part out of necessity when Moss was traded. The Patriots mainstays over those three seasons were veteran slot receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. From 2010-2012, the trio of Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez were targeted on 58% of Brady's 1740 passes, Welker making up 27% of that himself.

In the offseason before 2013, the Patriots offense was dismantled seemingly all at once. In March, Wes Welker signed with the Denver Broncos when his perceived value and the Patriots valuation of him didn't see eye-to-eye. In May, following complications with his forearm recovery, Rob Gronkowski underwent his fourth surgery while more test results regarding his back were still up in the air. In June, following his arrest, the Patriots released tight end Aaron Hernandez. In one fell swoop, the Patriots lost their three best weapons. To make matters worse, receiver Brandon Lloyd and running back Danny Woodhead went their separate ways. In 2012, they were Brady's 2nd and 5th most targeted players. The 2013 Patriots were going to be way different, and boy were they. Tom Brady's top 5 most targeted players in 2013 were all different from the 2012 team.

The Patriots punt returner became their #1 receiver. Free agent acquisition Danny Amendola, the presumed Welker replacement, never really fulfilled expectations while being hampered by a hip injury. Rookie Aaron Dobson got going mid-way through the season, while undrafted free agent rookie Kenbrell Thompkins surprised everyone by becoming one of Brady's more trusted targets. Receiving back Shane Vereen never was the same after breaking his wrist. The Patriots asked Tom Brady to do his best to make it work. Eventually Rob Gronkowski would be back and the Patriots would get better. And they did. Below are two chart s. The first shows Brady's passing statistics with and without Gronk in 2013. The second shows the Patriots scoring outputs.

2013 Completions Attempts Yards Touchdowns Interceptions Comp. % Y/A Passer Rating Without Gronk 198 344 2138 12 5 57.56% 6.22 81.52 With Gronk 182 284 2205 13 5 64.08% 7.76 95.76

2013 Patriots Games Points PPG League Rank Without Gronk 9 230 25.6 11th With Gronk 7 214 30.6 2nd

Brady and the Patriots were a dominant offense with Gronkowski back in the fold. Without him the team struggled to put up points and throw the ball. I don't know the precedent for what to expect when a historic offense loses all its best players and tries to patch it using rookies and injury-stricken veterans. Given how dominant Brady was prior to 2013, and how most advanced metrics showed that he was anything but declining in those years, I am inclined to believe that he was not declining.

There is still one thing left unsolved, and that is 2014. The Patriots in 2014 struggled mightily with some of the same things as the 2013 squad. Attempting to get the newly acquired Brandon LaFell and Tim Wright adjusted is still taking time. Rob Gronkowski wasn't fully ready at the onset, but as he has been fully cleared he has been his dominant self. Julian Edelman has been mister reliable, while everyone else on the offense has been inconsistent. The offensive line struggled worse than we had ever seen in Brady's career as it was trying to figure out which five guys to even go with for a full game.

Sam Monson took the Chiefs game as his chance to try and justify his claim. It would appear that he jumped the gun.Since the Chiefs debacle, the Patriots have won 3 straight and offense seems back on track. The biggest reason, other than a fully-functioning Gronk, has been Tom Brady. In Brady's last 3 games, he has completed 70 of 109 passes (64%) for 914 yards (8.4 yards/attempt), 9 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions for a whopping 118.0 passer rating. 8 of Brady's 9 touchdown passes have been to players not named Edelman or Gronkowski. It seems that Brady is starting to get more and more comfortable with his other weapons. The offensive line has played great as well, in spite of struggles running the ball. Brady's passer rating for the whole season is now a very healthy 96.3. DVOA and DYAR are not updated to include the Jets game, but the best thing about the stats is that they become better representations as the season wears on, so be sure to check them out as the season progresses.

Given PFF's spotty track record when it comes to evaluating quarterback play, and the statistics clearly showing Brady was consistently the best quarterback in football prior to 2013, it is safe to assume that Brady is not declining and in fact the struggles in the passing game can be more attributed to a lack of identity on offense due to inferior talent and injury. The last few games show that Brady is still a dominant force. As for Tom Brady being on the decline, that myth is busted.