After a catastrophically bad start to the season in which the Colorado Rapids could hardly do anything right, stumbling to a 0-8-2 record under coach Anthony Hudson, things had started to turn around for MLS’ lovable losers. Under interim coach and former team legend Conor Casey, the Rapids had strung together two wins and a draw in their last three games, getting two of those results on the road.

Which begs the question: Is Casey a genius? By that simple question, what I’m really asking is a much broader one: To what do we owe the sudden change of fortune for the Colorado Rapids?

First, let me offer a giant caveat to anything I say. With just five games under his belt, it’s hard to make any sweeping and definitive statements about the system or the impact that Casey has had on this team, either anecdotal or statistical. We just don’t know enough and there isn’t enough data to say anything definitively. Additionally, it would be hard to discern whether the team is better because Casey is a good coach doing lots of good things, or simply because Hudson was a bad coach, and he is no longer in charge. And finally, for the past two games, the Rapids have been playing with two new players, Jonathan Lewis and Lalas Abubakar, that Hudson did not have — although, last week I explained why those two additions only make specific sense in the post-Hudson world.

But with all that said, we do have some input to consider, and we do have a small but relevant set of numbers that can tell us something about how Casey is a better and more successful coach than Hudson. It can be seen in the way the team plays. The attackers stride forward with purpose, moving the ball upfield confidently and dribbling with pace from both wide and central spots. The short, tight combination play and the need to zig-zag a bunch of forward and backward passes looking for a hole is gone. Now we see the Rapids generate a turnover in their end and feed that ball quickly to a player breaking into an open gap, or we see wide midfielders drive past defenders on the dribble.

Advanced statistics indicate that it works, too. The expected goals metric uses a mountain of data to generate a probability that a shot in a certain location will go in the net. Take a shot right in front of goal, and that number is close to 1.0; try a 45-yard bomb from a tough angle, and that number will be closer to 0.01. In short: winning soccer teams take lots of shots in good places and keep the opposing team from taking any good shots at all. A high ‘expected goals’ (xG) number is good. A high ‘expected goals against’ (xGA) is bad. When you add the two numbers together, you get ‘expected goal differential’, (xGD), which is a particularly good measure of whether your team is playing good soccer or bad soccer.

I compared the xG and xGA data from Hudson’s 10 games this season with Conor Casey’s 4 games this season — data from the Philadelphia game has not yet been posted.

What's the difference between Anthony Hudson and Conor Casey?

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Up to this point, the difference is +1.01 expected goal differential per game.

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In other words, in the games under Casey, #Rapids96 have performed significantly better.

Stats c/o @AnalysisEvolved . pic.twitter.com/MPA5uTgNBS — Mark Asher Goodman (@soccer_rabbi) May 31, 2019

The cumulative xGD under Casey has been 1.41, or 0.35 xGD per game, meaning the Rapids under Casey have taken better quality shots than they have allowed. Meanwhile, the cumulative xGD under Hudson was minus-5.91, or minus-0.66 xGD per game, meaning opponents took better shots than the Rapids by a significant margin. The Rapids under Hudson had the worst xGD game-by-game average in the league by a ton – the next-worse team, the Vancouver Whitecaps, have a per-game xGD of minus-0.53.

There’s still a lot to learn about Casey’s Rapids. Is this bright new performance sustainable? Could it just be a case of the players dialing up their performance for the new boss in the short term? Is the team better because of Abubakar and Lewis? When the team plays more opponents, and better opponents, will form regress? And how might the foundation that Casey is building successfully be transferred to the next manager, whomever that may be? All these questions are reasons to keep an eye on the Rapids right now.

The Tim Howard Controversy

Tim Howard was out of the last game with a hamstring injury, something that started a few games earlier. Jonathan Tannenwald of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that Rapids officials stated that due to Howard’s injury and inability to play, the team gave him permission to travel to Memphis. Howard is a partial owner of the new USL franchise. Some may think this is entirely reasonable: a player in his final year and with a long distinguished career has earned the right to miss a game from the sidelines. Others might cite this moment as an example of a lack of commitment to the club and his teammates, and that the team made a poor choice in permitting Howard to go to Memphis in that it demonstrated that a highly-paid star gets special treatment over the regular work-a-day players.

To be honest, I didn’t love that Tim did this. But I’m also not up in arms over it. An injured player doesn’t add a whole lot while dressed in couture street-wear up in a skybox with front office staff, and Tim Howard’s impact is much greater on the field than it is in offering moral support at a team breakfast.

Quick Hits

One thing I touched on above is the immediate impact that Abubakar and Lewis have made upon joining the Rapids. It reminds us of how important it is to have difference makers on a team. You might think that a bottom-of-the-table team like the Rapids were so catastrophically bad that early results indicated that the entire roster was going to need, yet again, a revamp before the team begins the 2020 season. The acquisition of Abubakar and Lewis demonstrates that just two key players can transform a team from a public health hazard into a nice little bistro lunch joint.

Imagine what can happen if the Rapids pick up a few more key additions when the summer transfer window opens on July 9 …

Speaking of difference makers, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Nicolas Mezquida had himself two pretty decent games for the Rapids this week. Saturday, he came on in the 67th minute and injected energy into the team, then unleashed a banger of a goal at the 89th minute to win it for Colorado. It was their first home victory of the season.

Wednesday, Mezquida played as a striker instead of his usual role as a midfielder. He produced a laser-beam shot in the 60th minute that struck the bottom of the left post. It came from nearly the same spot on the field as his game-winner from four days earlier…

I’ve got more math for you; this weeks ‘Backpass’ is a statistical nerd’s dream. Another trend to keep your eye on is whether these new Rapids can get the defense under control. As great as the last three results have been, there were worrying signs in each match that indicates opponents failed to capitalize on numerous scoring opportunities. In other words, the Rapids may not have been “good” so much as their opponents were “bad.” This is particularly true against LA Galaxy and Philadelphia Union, who both had numerous high-percentage chances in front of goal, but blew it. Here’s a chart:

A trend to watch going forward: have #Rapids96 under Conor Casey begun to address defensive issues, like allowing too many opposing shots, and allowing too many *high quality* opposing shots?

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Chart c/o @cjcoreschi over at @SocTakes . pic.twitter.com/2KvQCLJJy2 — Mark Asher Goodman (@soccer_rabbi) May 31, 2019

The chart above shows that, in the Hudson era (plus one game of Conor Casey), Colorado was defensively below-average in conceding shots to their opponent, but was way below average at conceding goals on a high percentage of those shots, indicating that they were letting opponents take uncontested shots and shots in highly dangerous positions. If that doesn’t get better, you can expect the Rapids will go back to conceding 3 and 4 goals per game, which makes it awfully hard to win in Major League Soccer.