Bill Shorten says Labor will have a mandate to legislate controversial tax changes if it wins the election, but has urged voters against supporting minor parties that may block its agenda.

After fielding questions about Labor’s tax plans on ABC’s Q&A program on Monday night, Shorten said the party had been clear with the Australian public about its tax changes and spending priorities.

“I think even our harshest critics would say that we’re putting our policies out there first, so I do believe we will have a mandate and I’m a very determined person,” Shorten said.

Independents and minor parties likely to control the balance of power in the new Senate are campaigning against Labor’s changes to dividend imputation, negative gearing and capital gains tax.

The measures are forecast to raise $157bn over the decade, which Labor has vowed to spend on its priorities of health, education, childcare and support for low income earners.

Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer and the Centre Alliance party are campaigning against the so-called retiree tax, meaning the $57bn franking credit changes are unlikely to pass into law even if Labor wins government.

Independents hoping to be on the cross bench in the House of Representatives have also said they oppose the franking credit changes, which Shorten has been arguing are an unsustainable “gift”.

Shorten said that if independents were elected to the Senate, the chaos plaguing Canberra over the past decade would continue.

“What I would say first of all to Australians is let’s not have three more years of minority parties controlling the Senate,” Shorten said.

“I’d say to Australians if you’re sick of the last six years, three Liberal prime ministers, five defence ministers in six years, 13 energy policies, 23 reshuffles; if you’re sick of the chaos, if you’re not excited by the idea that you voted for Tony Abbott and got Malcolm Turnbull, you voted for Malcolm Turnbull and got Scott Morrison, and you vote for Scott Morrison and you get Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson calling the shots, vote Labor at the next election.”

The warning comes as the latest Guardian Essential poll shows support for both major parties languishing, with Labor’s primary vote at 34% and the Coalition’s primary vote at 38%.

Labor’s finance spokesman, Jim Chalmers, said the party had put forward a “difficult and courageous” tax package, but the party would deal with the “cards you are dealt” in the Senate.

“We’ve made it very clear for a long time now what our policies and plans are. One of the reasons that we did that, firstly, because we wanted the Australian people to have an opportunity to hold those policies up to the light and to judge us on them.

“We’ll put our changes out there, we’ll argue for them, we’ll have the necessary discussions, but we intend to pass the tax changes that we’ve proposed.”

As Labor continued to argue for its policy agenda, the Liberals also sought to pressure Shorten over the party’s pledge to boost wages for those in the childcare sector.

On Monday, Shorten suggested that the opposition could also intervene to provide a pay increase for aged care workers.

The Coalition’s campaign spokesman, Simon Birmingham, said that the Labor party’s $9.9bn policy was at risk of blowing out.

“In terms of the setting of award wages, that’s what we have a fair work commission and politicians get in the middle of that then the whole system unravels.”