The good news is the Maple Leafs find themselves in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving. That means — statistically speaking — a playoff spot is likely this year.

A hot start has put the Maple Leafs in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 12-8-2 for 26 points, putting them in good position to make it to the post-season for the first time since 2004.

A study by the Star going back to 1993 shows teams in a playoff spot by U.S. Thanksgiving have an easier time actually making the postseason.

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In fact, 198 of 256 teams in a playoff spot by this time of the season over the past 16 years actually made the post-season — or a 77.3 per cent success rate.

Over time, it’s meant 12.4 of the 16 playoff spots are generally spoken for by what teams outside a playoff spot might want to call Bleak Thursday.

Over the rest of the season, only three or four teams will drop out of the race and three or four teams will move in.

Last year, the Leafs were outside a playoff spot at this time, and missed the playoffs.

Also last year, four teams that were in playoff spots at this point dropped out. (Atlanta was replaced by Buffalo in the East, Columbus, St. Louis and Colorado were replaced by Anaheim, Nashville and San Jose in the West.)

General managers around the league use this point in the season — generally close to the first quarter of the season — to determine what kind of team they have, and what kind of changes need to be made, and usually whether they will be buyers or sellers come trade time.