Week One Edition

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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

Mando’s Records From Last Season + Totals Since 2016

Spread: 151-104-12 (.588) Total: 302-212-20 (.584)

Over/Under: 149-112-6 (.569) Total: 291-237-6 (.550)

Best Bets: 74-46 (.617) Total: 203-146-1 (.581)

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

Prediction from TNF: PHILADELPHIA 24 Atlanta 21

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my Thursday Night Football predictions

Marquee Matchups

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

1:00 PM ET CBS Spread: NE -6.5 O/U: 50.5 DVOA: HOU (12) < NE (2) Public Betting: NE 52%

Tom Brady and the Patriots have always had success against the Texans (9-1 all-time, including a 7-0 mark since 2012). Recent history, however, may be a better harbinger of what’s to come on Sunday. Houston outplayed New England for 59 out of 60 minutes in last year’s thrilling Week 3 meeting between these two teams. It took a late touchdown pass from Brady — his fifth of the afternoon — to allow the Pats to escape with a 36-33 win.

Brady won’t have quite the same kind of success against Houston’s defense this time around, though. The Texans’ D should be much improved thanks to the return of J.J. Watt and linebacker Whitney Mercilus from injury, as well as the additions of former Cardinal Tyrann Mathieu and former Jaguar Aaron Colvin to strengthen the secondary. It also won’t help that Brady’s right tackle, Marcus Cannon, may be inactive due to a calf injury and thus unable to block star defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.

The true wild card in this game is Deshaun Watson. Is he healthy coming off ACL surgery? Because if he plays like he did against New England last season (301 passing yards, 2 touchdowns), the Texans are certainly capable of putting up enough points to beat the Patriots.

With that said, Brady and company averaged nearly 30 points per game last season at home. If they come close to that total, they shouldn’t have too much trouble moving to 1-0.

New England 28, HOUSTON 23

San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings

1:00 PM ET FOX Spread: MIN -6.5 O/U: 46 DVOA: SF (23) < MIN (5) Public Betting: MIN 65%

Since 2004, teams who missed the postseason the previous year have returned an ROI of +22% against the spread versus playoff teams from the year prior in Week One. So San Francisco should definitely cover, right?

Not necessarily. The 49ers lost their starting running back, Jerrick McKinnon, to an ACL injury last week. They’ll now rely on Alfred Morris to gain yards on the ground, which will be a tall task on Sunday against a Minnesota front seven that ranked 5th against the run last season. Kirk Cousins is also positioned to have a nice day considering he is going up against a shaky San Francisco secondary.

MINNESOTA 27, San Francisco 17

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

8:30 PM ET NBC Spread: GB -7 O/U: 47.5 DVOA: CHI (29) < GB (7) Public Betting: GB 55%

This game got a lot more interesting after the Bears acquired Khalil Mack. Even though his presence should enable Chicago to take another step forward defensively, will he make an immediate impact against Green Bay given that he was acquired on such short notice?

My guess is that he won’t, particularly since Green Bay has two elite offensive tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga. Plus, I don’t think Mitchell Trubisky will be any match for Aaron Rodgers, who will make his return to Lambeau after missing most of last season due to injury. The Packers, by the way, are 41-18-3 (.685) ATS at home with Rodgers at quarterback.

GREEN BAY 34, Chicago 17

Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers

4:25 PM ET FOX Spread: CAR -3 O/U: 42.5 DVOA: DAL (8) > CAR (17) Public Betting: CAR 63%

Those of you who read my preview articles know that I am not high on Dallas this season. While I could see the Cowboys hanging around in this one (after all, Cam Newton and the Panthers are fairly erratic), Carolina’s stout front seven should be able to contain Ezekiel Elliott, thus slowing down Dallas’ offense.

CAROLINA 23, Dallas 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

4:05 PM ET CBS Spread: LAC -3.5 O/U: 48.5 DVOA: KC (19) < LAC (15) Public Betting: KC 53%

I’ve said throughout the offseason that this should finally be the year these Chargers capitalize on all their talent and make the postseason. However, after losing key players like cornerback Jason Varrett and tight end Hunter Henry to season-ending injuries during training camp, it appears Joey Bosa is banged up now as well. He’s likely to miss Week One — and possibly next week too — with a foot injury.

Bosa’s absence should make life easier for new Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. But since Kansas City’s defense, which finished 32nd in weighted DVOA last season, is even weaker than LA’s, I’ll still take Phillip Rivers and company in a high-scoring affair.

Los Angeles 30, KANSAS CITY 27

Upset Pick of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants

1:00 PM ET CBS Spread: JAC -3 O/U: 42.5 DVOA: JAC (25) > NYG (31) Public Betting: JAC 50%

Some pundits, like FS1’s Nick Wright, think the Jaguars will fail to make the playoffs after appearing in the AFC title game last season. While I don’t agree with that sentiment, I do think Jacksonville will have to grind out wins on a weekly basis due to its shaky offense, which had some turnover on its offensive line and lost its top receiver, Marquise Lee, to injury during the preseason.

The Giants have enough talent offensively to provide Eli Manning with enough support against the Jaguars’ elite defense. New York steals one in front of its home crowd.

NEW YORK 20, Jacksonville 17

Also on the Sunday slate…

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM ET CBS Spread: PIT -4.5 O/U: 41 DVOA: PIT (1) > CLE (21) Public Betting: PIT 64%

Not having Le’Veon Bell might be a problem for the Steelers on Sunday because Cleveland surprisingly allowed the 2nd fewest yards per rush attempt last season. Pittsburgh’s passing offense may be limited due to the high winds expected in the forecast as well. Interesting stat from The Action Network: the under has gone 403-324-8 (.553) since 2003 when wind speeds are 10mph or stronger.

I’m projecting a relatively low-scoring game, which is good news for the Browns because it will at least mean they’ll hang around.

Pittsburgh 20, CLEVELAND 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts

1:00 PM ET CBS Spread: IND -2.5 O/U: 48 DVOA: CIN (20) < IND (16) Public Betting: CIN 71%

Teams receiving under 30% of public support — like Indianapolis, in this instance — covered the spread at a 59% rate last season. However, the Colts’ defense is projected to be a disaster (SI ranked their front seven and secondary as the worst in the league). Cincinnati’s offense, meanwhile, has a nice collection of skill-position players, including running back Joe Mixon and 7x Pro Bowler A.J. Green.

CINCINNATI 30, Indianapolis 20

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

1:00 PM ET CBS Spread: BAL -7.5 O/U: 39.5 DVOA: BUF (32) < BAL (10) Public Betting: BAL 74%

I’m not picking the Bills to win many games this season as long as Nathan Peterman is under center. However…Buffalo may be underrated against the spread in this matchup. Here are four reasons why.

Baltimore’s offense is anemic: it averaged only 4.6 yards per play last season (tied for last in the NFL)

The Bills’ defense, meanwhile, is not bad: it ranked 15th in DVOA in 2017

Home teams with a higher DVOA only covered the spread at a 44% rate last season

And lastly, as mentioned, teams receiving under 30% of public support have proven to be profitable ATS

Baltimore 17, BUFFALO 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

1:00 PM ET FOX Spread: NO -9.5 O/U: 49.5 DVOA: TB (27) < NO (3) Public Betting: NO 73%

New Orleans is Week One’s biggest favorite, so that means bet the Buccaneers. Since 1993, the largest favorites on opening weekend are just 12-22 (.352) ATS. 12-22! Per The Action Network, teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week One are only 19-36 ATS over this same timeframe as well.

The Saints will still win. Their offense has a clear edge over Tampa’s lackluster defense. But don’t be surprised to see Ryan Fitzpatrick and company keep it close.

New Orleans 27, TAMPA BAY 20

Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM ET FOX Spread: TEN -1 O/U: 45 DVOA: TEN (14) > MIA (26) Public Betting: TEN 60%

These two teams are always tough to get a read on, but I’ve mentioned before how I expect Marcus Mariota to significantly improve this season. Miami doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage either, so I don’t see Tennessee having too much trouble winning this one on the road.

TENNESSEE 24, Miami 17

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

4:25 PM ET FOX Spread: DEN -3 O/U: 42.5 DVOA: SEA (11) > DEN (28) Public Betting: DEN 60%

The key matchup to watch will be Denver’s dominant pass rush against Seattle’s leaky offensive line. The Seahawks’ line was rated by Pro Football Focus as the third-worst in the NFL heading into this season — and they may be without two starters in tackle German Ifedi (ankle) and guard D.J. Fluker (hamstring).

Von Miller will be on his way to another 10+ sack season after this one.

DENVER 27, Seattle 13

Washington Redskins vs Arizona Cardinals

4:25 PM ET FOX Spread: ARZ -1 O/U: 43.5 DVOA: WSH (13) > ARZ (24) Public Betting: WSH 55%

This is an advantageous matchup for the Cardinals. After missing all of last season due to injury, David Johnson should have a big return against a Redskins’ rush defense that ranked 29th last season according to Football Outsiders. Arizona, which has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, should bottle up Adrian Peterson, too.

ARIZONA 24, Washington 20

Monday Night Prediction(s)

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions

7:10 PM ET ESPN Spread: DET -6.5 O/U: 45 DVOA: NYJ (30) < DET (18) Public Betting: DET 54%

Not sure what to expect from San Darnold in his debut, but I see no reason why the Lions shouldn’t take care of business at home. Matthew Stafford will be able to move the ball effectively against a Jets defense that was only 22nd against the pass last season.

DETROIT 27, New York 20

Los Angeles Rams vs Oakland Raiders

10:20 PM ET ESPN Spread: LAR -4 O/U: 48 DVOA: LAR (4) > OAK (22) Public Betting: LAR 74%

After trading Khalil Mack, Oakland’s defense will be hopeless against the Rams’ prolific attack. The Raiders gave up the fifth most yards per pass attempt last season — and without someone like Mack to disrupt the quarterback, Jared Goff and company should put up plenty of points.

LOS ANGELES 38, Oakland 24

Best Bets

Green Bay (-320) over Chicago

Buffalo (+7.5) over Baltimore

Tampa Bay (+9.5) over New Orleans

Teaser: Denver (+3.5) over Seattle & Seattle vs Denver UNDER 49

Los Angeles (-210) over Oakland

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