Agami Brief

Agami Briefs are AAA’s outlook reports. Agami (आगामी) which means upcoming in Hindi, are concise memos on important forthcoming events. Agamis aim to inform Members of what to keep an eye out for and when. In this first brief, we look at the key elections happening in Asia for 2020.

Tsai Ing-wen, Presidenta de República de China (Taiwan) y Presidente Salvador Sánchez Cerén.

January – General elections in Taiwan

Taiwan voters go to the polls on 11 January 2020 to choose the President, Vice-President, and all members of the Legislative Yuan. President Tsai Ing-wen will be running for reelection despite resigning as chair of her party in 2019.

If she wins, it will be her last term as president. While Han Kuo-yu of the KMT remains her main rival, opinion polling has given Tsai a strong lead since mid-2019.

As voters continue to watch for China’s response to the crisis in Hong Kong, what stance candidates take on the handling of cross-straits ties will be a decisive factor in these elections.

Photo by Russian Duma

April – Legislative elections in South Korea

President Moon Jae-in‘s Democrat Party faces a tough fight against Liberty Korea in 2020. Polls have shown waning support for the Democrat Party in recent months as a result of corruption scandals involving the justice ministry.

Moon’s pacific approach towards North Korea has also not shown much reliable progress. As the North’s December deadline for US concessions is likely to pass without any agreement, tensions may well resume, placing Moon’s Sunshine policy in the crosshairs.

Photo by Provincial Government of Jakarta

September – Local and regional elections in Indonesia

Local and regional elections in Indonesia in Q3 will be the first elections since President Joko Widodo begun his new term in office.

After Jokowi’s reelection in April 2019, he has moved quickly to try and boost growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The grand plan involves the liberalising of investment and labour laws with a view to cutting red tape and permitting a greater share of foreign ownership in previously restrictive industries.

Whether Jokowi is successful in improving the economic picture will play only a marginal role in local and regional elections, which have historically been determined by candidates’ personal appeal to a constituency rather than to their political affiliations. Nevertheless how the elections proceed will test Jokowi’s uneasy partnership with his rival Prabowo Subianto (now Defence Minister).

Photo by Michał Józefaciuk

Sometime in 2020 – General elections in Singapore

Singapore’s 18th general elections are legally required to be held by April 2021, but it is highly likely that they will take place in 2020 and very likely after the government’s Budget speech in February 2020.

While the relatively poor showing of the Singapore economy in 2019 will impact voter confidence, the uncertainty from the US-China trade war may sway many to go with the safe choice – as it did in 2001 after 9/11. However, a possible opposition coalition could also upend electoral dynamics drastically, and how the ruling party responds will be critical in determining its fate or fortune.

By Staff Writers