What Tuesday's special election in Tennessee could say about the upcoming midterms

Democrats are hoping a special election in Tennessee on Tuesday will provide yet another barometer into their prospects heading into the 2018 midterm election.

Since President Donald Trump’s election, Democrats have seen wins in around 40 special elections for state legislative seats across the nation. This year alone, the party has picked up seats in Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida and Kentucky.

The special election results have energized Democrats, giving them hope that they can make gains in state legislatures and build momentum heading into the November election.

But Republicans warn against reading too much into the recent trends.

Michael Sullivan, executive director of the Tennessee Republican Party, said the GOP has won its fair share of special elections — despite the significant attention paid to Democratic wins.

"When you look at all of them it's been a myriad of different results," he said.

► More: Can an atheist win public office in Tennessee? We'll find out Tuesday.

Unless Democrats are able to secure a win, the special election to fill the seat left open when former state Sen. Jim Tracy took a position in the Trump administration will likely not garner national attention. Instead, the focus will likely be on another election in Pennsylvania.

But in a state that overwhelmingly voted for Trump in 2016, Tuesday’s election in Tennessee is making Republicans sweat in ways that once seemed inconceivable.

Why there's another special election in Tennessee

The special election will pit Democrat Gayle Jordan, a 57-year-old attorney and executive director of Recovering from Religion, a nonprofit that supports those doubting their religious beliefs, against Republican businessman Shane Reeves, 50.

The election became necessary after Tracy, a Shelbyville Republican, resigned after Trump appointed him to a position in the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

► More: After Trump appointment, Jim Tracy resigns from state Senate, triggers special election

The race is Tennessee’s third such election since Trump took office in January 2017.

The first came in June, when Republican Kevin Vaughan was elected to replace former Rep. Mark Lovell, who resigned from the legislature.

► More: Kevin Vaughan wins Tennessee House District 95 race

The second, held in December, squared Republican Mark Pody against Democrat Mary Alice Carfi, after then-Sen. Mae Beavers resigned amid her brief run for governor.

► More: Mark Pody narrowly wins Mae Beavers vacant District 17 state Senate seat

Although Vaughan’s election was a solid win for the GOP — he netted 62 percent of the vote — some Republicans were nervous about the results in Pody's election.

In a solidly Republican district, Pody beat Carfi by by slightly more than 300 votes. After the election, Republican strategist Ward Baker said on social media the results needed to serve as a "wake up" call for the GOP.

With the Pody election still fresh in their minds, Democrats are pumping significant resources into Tuesday's special election.

Mary Mancini, head of the Tennessee Democratic Party, said the campaign and the party, as well as the state Senate Democratic Caucus, have been working closely together to organize volunteers and election day efforts.

Pulling out all the stops

The race has made Republicans nervous enough that they’re making rare maneuvers. There’s been direct mailers sent out attacking Jordan.

On multiple occasions, Lt. Gov. Randy McNally, R-Oak Ridge, has called Jordan “one of the most dangerous and extreme candidates” he has seen in Tennessee politics.

Such rhetoric was never used when Jordan was on the ballot in 2016.

In an interview on Thursday, McNally said that's because, in that election, Tracy was widely expected to win.

Mancini said the GOP attacks against Jordan, particularly on how she is an atheist, were an effort to avoid discussing issues like Medicaid expansion and rural hospital closures.

► More: Democrat Gayle Jordan opposes school vouchers, outsourcing

► More: Jordan, Reeves offer solutions to opioid crisis, I-24 traffic

Beyond the attacks against Jordan, U.S. Reps. Marsha Blackburn and Scott DesJarlais also joined Reeves over the weekend for a campaign rally in Murfreesboro.

Sullivan, state GOP executive director, said that although the effort to support Reeves has ramped up, it's because Tuesday's election is the only one in Tennessee that day.

But similar efforts — whether the attack ads against a Democrat or bringing in congressmen for a campaign event — were not used in the December special election, potentially signifying the amount of concern the GOP has about the race.

Nonetheless, Sullivan said his party's "job is to win elections and this is the only election going on right now," which has led the GOP to invest in the campaign, including providing assistance for door-knocking and ensuring voters go to the polls.

GOP out raises Democrat in the race

Among the criticisms McNally leveled against Jordan were that "out-of-state liberals" her campaign and were backed by “out-of-state liberals” who were “spending thousands of dollars” to get her elected.

An analysis of Jordan’s campaign finance disclosures indicates that roughly $9,050, or 30 percent, of her $29,000 in itemized contributions came from people outside of Tennessee.

Meanwhile, $10,600, or 3 percent, of Reeves’ $335,000 itemized contributions came from non-Tennesseans.

Overall, Reeves has made $568,000 in expenditures, spending 26 times the amount of money Jordan has so far in the race. He has also out raised her by nearly $300,000.

Since entering the race, Reeves has received donations from 16 state lawmakers or their political action committees. Other contributors include U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander, Republican gubernatorial candidate Randy Boyd and his wife, Jim Haslam, the father of Gov. Bill Haslam, and Nashville auto dealer Lee Beaman.

Reeves’ finances were bolstered by the fact that he faced an opponent — perennial candidate Joe Carr — in the Republican primary, while Jordan did not have any opposition.

► More: Reeves outspends Carr in Tennessee Senate race to replace Jim Tracy

Reeves has also loaned his campaign $255,000. Jordan has not made any loans.

Yet despite the widespread financial difference, Jordan is still making Republicans sweat.

Concerns about turnout

That's largely due to concerns about voter turnout. Typically, special elections are harder to get people to the polls, as evidenced by the 7,600 people who cast an in-person ballot during early voting.

In the Pody-Carfi race, nearly 5,200 people voted early in person, with another 171 casting absentee ballots, according to the Secretary of State. The votes cast in that race during early voting were nearly half of all the ballots cast in the general election.

One factor that might give Democrats hope Tuesday is that Jordan has already appeared on the ballot. When she squared off against Tracy in the 2016 general election, she netted 18,259 votes, or roughly 25 percent of the total vote.

► More: Tracy wins 4th term easily

If Jordan can re-engage many of those who voted in 2016, she could stand a chance of beating Reeves, which is an idea that once seemed inconceivable in a Republican-heavy district, which covers Bedford, Lincoln, Marshall, Moore and parts of Rutherford counties.

In five of the counties that fully reside in District 14, Trump received more than 71 percent of the vote in the 2016 election. In Rutherford County, half of which is within the district, Trump received 60 percent of the vote.

'It's always Republican because Republicans always get out and vote'

Sullivan said that the difficulty among Republicans is voter complacency.

"You can't sit there and say this district has always been Republican. It's always Republican because Republicans always get out and vote," he said.

Providing an example of what Republicans are up against, McNally said voters who have been contacted are convinced Reeves has already won the race.

"We're encouraging people on our side to turn out," the lieutenant governor said.

Overall, Sullivan said he was confident the district would remain Republican.

But Mancini is hopeful Tennessee could follow the trend of a red district going blue in a special election.

"Democrats are fired up to do what they need to get out the vote to elect more Democrats," she said, calling Tuesday's election a referendum on Republicans' control of the state.

No matter the result, one thing remains clear: Republicans will still have a supermajority in both chambers.

But if Jordan and the Democrats are able to give Republicans a run for their money and make it a close race in an otherwise GOP friendly district, such a performance could portend of potentially difficult battles for the majority party in the November general election.

Reach Joel Ebert at jebert@tennessean.com or 615-772-1681 and on Twitter @joelebert29.