Westerly plans for major hit

Eight decades later, Westerly, which is at the forefront of the region’s hurricane strike zone, is taking its history, and the potential for a massive storm, seriously.

On a warm August evening, some 150 people donning pastel polos and clutching wine-filled biodegradable cups gather in the Chaplin B. Barnes Reading Room at the Lanphear Livery in Watch Hill. They’re here for a talk on storm surge and sea-level rise, as part of a series of lectures hosted by The Watch Hill Conservancy.

They listen to Bryan Oakley, assistant professor of environmental geoscience at Eastern Connecticut State University, and Teresa Crean, a community planner and coastal management specialist with URI’s Coastal Resources Center, speak about how rising seas — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has projected sea-level rise to increase in Rhode Island by up to 9 feet, 10 inches by 2100 — combined with a Category 1 hurricane would bring unprecedented destruction.

Some attendees murmur, “Wow, I remember Hurricane Carol, and I can’t imagine what would happen today.” Others grunt and comment, “I’ll be dead by then.” But the overall vibe is one of concern.

“I think a lot of people are noticing that, within the past few years, certain areas are flooding regularly and impacting the way they go to a certain destination,” said Janice Sassi, manager of the Napatree Point Conservation Area. “People are concerned. So, this past winter, the [The Watch Hill] Conservancy spearheaded a project that is getting the community thinking about the changing climate and what that means for us.”

This planning for a resilient future project addresses coastal erosion, flooding, sea-level rise, and what would happen if a massive hurricane hit and what the community can do to prepare itself.

Part of this community initiative was the Lanphear LIVE! lecture series that brought in speakers such as Crean and Oakley and hosted workshops that taught residents how to use the Coastal Resources Management Council’s STORMTOOLS program to see if their properties are in danger from sea-level rise and/or a 100-year storm.

The Watch Hill Conservancy and Westerly residents are taking a grassroots approach to learning about the danger of a hurricane coupled with sea-level rise.

“We’re all seeing the effects of these things,” Sassi said. “I think that a lot of people feel helpless, but knowledge is power, and I think it helps if you know you’re not in this alone.”

While Westerly is educating itself about the climate crisis and preparing itself for sea-level rise and hurricane-fueled storm surge, there is another important issue to worry about if and when Hurricane Rhody hits: rain.

In 2017, Hurricane Harvey hit Houston and overstayed its welcome for three days, during which it dumped 32 inches of rain. Levees broke, dams were breached, and cars floated down streets. The same thing could happen here when Hurricane Rhody makes its second landfall and deposits 15-20 inches of rain.

“In New England, our rivers are relatively short and shallow, so they can fill up very quickly,” URI’s Ginis said. “It’s not like a wide river that can take a lot of rain, even an insignificant amount of rain can cause flooding.”

Ginis noted that recent research has shown that the climate crisis could be causing hurricanes to slow down, becoming less like the racehorse that was the 1938 hurricane and more like a slow Harvey that just won’t go away.

Just recently, the very-wet Hurricane Dorian moved at a snail’s pace of 2 mph during its devastating hit on the Bahamas.

Plus, as hydrologist-in-charge David Vallee of the National Weather Service’s Northeast River Forecast Center noted, with a warming atmosphere comes more moisture.

“We’re in a very-moist, wet regime,” he said. “And when there’s more moisture in the air, that means more rain.”

Vallee also noted that New England storms tend to come in pairs: Carol in ’54 and Edna in ’55; Cindy in ’59 and Donna in ’60; Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012. He said one could come as a “milder” tropical storm and deposit a good amount of rain.

“Rivers become swollen, the ground saturated, and if the Scituate reservoir starts its overflow release, as it was designed to do, come that second storm and more rain,” he said, shaking his head. “We could be at full capacity.”

Rhode Island could see a repeat of the March 2010 floods that wreaked havoc statewide.