The number of EU migrants coming to Britain will fall “sharply” even before the UK completes its official two-year divorce process from the European Union, a leading expert in migration has predicted.

The combination of the plummeting pound, a slowing UK labour market and the psychological impact of Brexit making EU nationals feel less welcome in Britain are all expected drive the fall.

Hard data will be published in December but Jonathan Portes, migration expert at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said early indications suggested a return to EU migration levels seen in 2009-2012, or around 60,000-80,000 a year.

Theresa May’s government has continued to stick to its manifesto commitment to reducing net UK migration to the “tens of thousands” per year from its current level of 330,000 a year, of which about 180,000 comes from the European Union.