Delaware grows slowly, but leads Northeast states

Delaware led its Northeast neighbors in generally slow population growth between 2010 and 2014, new Census Bureau estimates show, with the state's largest city continuing to edge back from a slip during the previous decade and Smyrna leading the state in percentage gains.

By the end of last year, 935,614 people called Delaware home, according to the new federal estimates, up 4.2 percent and the 16th highest rate among all states. Current projections put Delaware on track to break the 1 million-resident mark in less than a decade, by 2023, according to a separate state-level forecast.

Wilmington's 1.4 percent population increase, to an estimated 71,187 residents, ranked 150 from the bottom on a list of 753 places in the United States with 50,000 or more residents.

While low, Wilmington's percentage change was higher than any 50,000-plus areas in Pennsylvania, outside of Philadelphia. It also was ahead of some New Jersey cities, Baltimore and Frederick, Maryland.

"That's probably where it's going to stay, unless there's some change in housing" in Wilmington, Edward Ratledge, who directs the University of Delaware's Center for Applied Demography and Survey Research, said of Wilmington's slow growth.

Although state estimates put the Wilmington total slightly higher for 2014, the 2000 Census marked the city's population at 72,264 residents, with a decline to 70,851 in 2010.

The nation's big population gains, Ratledge pointed out, came in long-standing growth areas of the south and west, as well as areas in the upper Midwest where the Marcellus Shale energy boom produced huge workforce jumps. Among all states, North Dakota grew fastest, with its Marcellus-fueled population surging by 9.9 percent in just four years.

In Delaware, Smyrna led the state with an 11.4 percent population increase, bucking a trend that generally saw Sussex County with the highest growth rates. In 2014, Smyrna's population was estimated at 10,900.

Lifelong Smyrna resident Robert M. Keen, 73, said his community has retained a small-town feel despite adding about 1,150 residents since 2010, and doubling in size since 2000.

"I still think we have a bit of a small-town flavor, and I think people enjoy that feeling," said Keen, who taught in Smyrna-area schools for 37 years and is now active in the Duck Creek Historical Society. "We're like a bedroom community. I think people like to come home from work and relax without the industry and traffic that Middletown has."

Middletown, which like Smyrna has seen explosive growth through annexation and development, was only 90 residents short of 20,000 last year, according to the Census Bureau.

The top five municipalities after Wilmington remained the same: Dover, 37,355; Newark, 33,008; Middletown, 19,910; Smyrna, 11,170; and Milford, 10,179.

Sussex County grew by 6.95 percent in four years, with Kent at 5.95 percent and New Castle County at 2.66 percent.

Nationwide, the Census Bureau reported that 10 cities now have populations in excess of 1 million, with New York City still the country's largest at 8.48 million. California and Texas both have three cities with 1 million or more.

Philadelphia, the nation's fifth-largest city after New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston, saw its population rise more than 2.2 percent, to more than 1.56 million.

Although moves into Delaware are nowhere near rates seen in parts of the Midwest, it remains an essential contributor to the state's growth. More than half the state's population increase is attributable to new arrivals from other states or countries, according to the Delaware Population Consortium, an official forecasting group that relies heavily on Ratledge's center.

Migration will become even more important in coming years. With the state's population aging, the number of annual deaths is now expected to overtake the number of births before 2030, meaning absolute population losses unless birth rates rise or new residents come in.

The Delaware Population Consortium recently released projections showing that 25.7 percent of the state's population will be 60 and over by 2020. As recently as 2012, state health officials believed that milestone would not be hit until 2030.

Contact Jeff Montgomery at (302) 463-3344 or jmontgomery@delawareonline.com.

STATE POPULATION GROWTH: 2010-2014 (PERCENT)

Delaware: 4.2%

Virginia: 4.1%

Maryland: 3.5%

Massachusetts: 3.0%

New York: 1.9%

New Jersey: 1.7%

Pennsylvania: 0.7%

New Hampshire: 0.7%

Connecticut: 0.6%

Rhode Island: 0.1%

Vermont: 0.1%

Maine: 0.1%