Insight

Britain continues to experience a level of political volatility that is unprecedented in recent history. Theresa May's government has survived, but the country remains in turmoil.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday evening, Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal suffered a defeat of historic proportions. The deal, which failed to inspire support from either pro-EU Remainers or anti-EU Eurosceptics, was rejected by 230 votes.

It was the most significant defeat for a sitting government in British history.

Had we been living in ordinary times then a defeat of this magnitude would have been followed by the resignation of the prime minister and, quite possibly, a fresh general election. But these are not ordinary times.

The fact that Prime Minister May remains in office despite losing the support of her fellow MPs on her primary piece of legislation reflects the complexity of Britain’s Brexit debate. With there also being no clear majority in the House of Commons for an alternative route, Theresa May could rightly claim that her deal was the only one on the table.

As if that wasn’t enough high drama for one week, it then escalated further. The defeat of Theresa May’s deal led Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, to call a vote of no-confidence in what he labelled a ‘zombie government’, mainly in the hope of forcing a fresh general election.

While the motion was backed by other opposition parties, including the Scottish National Party, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Greens, it failed to win sufficient support.

Indeed, the writing had already been on the wall earlier in the day when both the Democratic Unionist Party, which is supporting the Conservative Party and Eurosceptic Conservatives had both signalled their intention to support Theresa May, irrespective of how much they dislike her Brexit deal.

Whereas on Tuesday divisions over Brexit had dominated, by Wednesday the old tribal party loyalties had returned.

Nor, by the way, did voters want a change of government. Shortly before the vote, pollsters asked the election-weary British people what they wanted to happen in the no-confidence vote. A plurality - 48 percent - felt that the Conservatives should remain in office while only 29 percent felt that Theresa May and her party should resign, making way for a fresh election (the remainder were undecided).

In the end, the voters, as well as the Conservatives and DUP, got what they wanted. The confidence motion was won with a majority of 19 votes.

So, where does all this leave Britain? Because of past manoeuvres by MPs, the Prime Minister will have to outline her next steps by January 21. One way forward is for Theresa May to continue negotiating with the EU in the hope that she can obtain further and, crucially, legally-binding concessions on the ‘backstop’, which is strongly opposed by many of her Eurosceptic colleagues.

If those concessions happen -which is a big ‘if’- then at least in my view, it is still entirely plausible that the prime minister can steer her deal through the House of Commons. If, however, no further concessions are granted by the EU then it looks distinctly unlikely that her deal will go anywhere other than the dustbin.

An alternative option is to push for a more ambitious renegotiation of the deal, which because the clock is ticking would most likely necessitate an extension to Article 50, which would go down among Brexit voters - including large numbers of Conservative voters - like a lead balloon.

It is also not clear whether, due to the extension, Britain would hold a fresh set of elections to the European Parliament in the spring. If it did, then you can bet that populist Brexiteers will contest them.

Still, other options include choosing to hold a second referendum, which again would require an extension to Article 50 and could conceivably take place later in the year. With neither the Conservative Party nor the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn backing a second referendum, it is unclear how the necessary legislation would pass through the House of Commons.

Furthermore, there is still no mass public support for such a vote, and it remains unknown what would be on the ballot paper (May’s deal versus remaining in the EU? Remain versus Leave? May’s deal versus 'no deal'?)

Also, the issue with referendums is that the options they present are supposed to be binary and, for voters, fairly easy to digest. This referendum would take place amid a low trust environment where the British people know little about the detail of the respective deals (and the claims about them will remain contested by experts). This is deeply problematic when it comes to running a democratic exercise.

Another option that remains on the table is a no-deal Brexit, which if nothing else happens would be the default option. Because of legislation that has already been passed, the country is scheduled to leave on March 29. MPs have made it clear that they will act to prevent such an outcome, though while also lacking a clear majority for an alternative avenue. This leaves a fresh general election, possibly as a device that could be used to try and ‘shake up’ the parliamentary arithmetic and give Prime Minister May the numbers that she needs to get the deal through parliament. Such an election could also be won by the opposition Labour Party or reproduce the numbers that we already have.

So, in short, and with only weeks to go until Britain is officially scheduled to leave the EU, the Conservative government may live to see another day, but the turmoil that surrounds British politics looks set to remain. Only a fool would predict what will happen next and the last thing that we need in British politics is more fools.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.



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