Top story: ‘The wolves are now in sight’

Good morning, it’s Warren Murray with the Tuesday news and views.

Melting ice in Greenland disrupts the Gulf Stream current, raising sea levels and pumping heat into the Southern Ocean. There, it speeds up the loss of ice from the Antarctic. As the heat rises, more rain falls in forested regions and the wettened soil is less able to trap planet-warming methane. Ocean floors give up even more methane, heating the planet further still.

We will pause there to explain this is not a sequel to The Day After Tomorrow but an illustration of what leading climate scientists fear could happen if “positive feedback loops” are allowed to take hold – by which warming temperatures release new sources of greenhouse gases or destroy the Earth’s ability to absorb carbon and reflect heat, causing a spiral into a “hothouse” world. They ask whether the planet’s temperature can stabilise at 2C above pre-industrial levels, or whether it will tip towards being 4C warmer and far less supportive of human life.

“I do hope we are wrong, but as scientists we have a responsibility to explore whether this is real,” said Johan Rockström, one of the authors of a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “We could end up delivering the Paris agreement and keep to 2C of warming, but then face an ugly surprise if the system starts to slip away.” Dr Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia, said: “In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight.”

Labour backs off in Hodge row – Margaret Hodge, the Labour MP who called Jeremy Corbyn “an antisemite and a racist” in the House of Commons, has denied party claims that she expressed “regret” for doing so. Disciplinary action against her has been dropped but “just to be clear: there have been no apologies – on either side,” said Hodge, who accosted Corbyn over his handling of Labour’s dispute with Jewish community leaders.

Italy explosion – At least two people area dead and more than 60 others injured after a lorry hauling a tanker of flammable materials exploded in a collision near Bologna airport.

Play Video 0:43

The blast sent up a fireball and partly collapsed a bridge on a motorway at Borgo Panigale in northern Italy. Authorities said many of the injured had been hit by debris and flying glass.

Symbolic novichok arrest bid – Britain will make an almost certainly futile attempt to have the suspects in the Salisbury novichok poisonings extradited from Russia. Authorities are blaming two Russians for the exposure of Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal and Charlie Rowley, and the death of Dawn Sturgess. Police and intelligence agencies have pieced together the movements of the two Russians, from their entry into the UK through to their departure. Vladimir Putin rejected a similar extradition request in 2007 for two Russians suspected of being behind the 2006 assassination with polonium of the former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko in London. Here is why the chance of Putin acceding in this instance is basically zero.

‘Put food first in Brexit’ – The National Farmers’ Union has claimed that as things stand Britain will run out of food a year from now if it cannot continue to easily import supplies after Brexit. Britain only produces 60% of what it needs to feed itself, compared with 74% three decades years ago. “A frictionless free trade deal with the EU and access to a reliable and competent workforce for farm businesses is critical to the future of the sector,” said Minette Batters, the NFU president, who also called for Britain to reverse its decline in self-sufficiency. Meanwhile the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has criticised Theresa May for using the prospect of a no-deal Brexit as a tactic in negotiations with Brussels. May and Sturgeon are to meet today in what is expected to be a tense encounter.

Manafort on trial – Onetime Trump apparatchiks Rick Gates and Paul Manafort were partners in crime who colluded to hide Manafort’s millions of dollars in shady foreign income from tax authorities, a court has heard. Gates testified that Manafort directed him to report overseas income as loans in order to lower his taxable income. Manafort is on trial for bank fraud and tax evasion. Prosecutors allege he failed to report a “significant percentage” of the more than $60m they say he received from Ukrainian oligarchs. Gates is Manafort’s former deputy and is testifying against him under a plea bargain.

Xi not a Pooh fan – Chinese censors have reportedly blocked the release of Christopher Robin, a new film adaptation about Winnie the Pooh – the portly cartoon bear who is used to mock President Xi Jinping.

The similarity was first noted when Xi visited the US in 2013 and was photographed walking alongside the lanky President Obama, and things have gone on from there. Xi is very sensitive about the comparison: the TV station HBO had its website blocked in China after comedian John Oliver mentioned it.

Lunchtime read: Wonga on borrowed time

From a once-touted valuation of more than $1bn (£770m), payday lender Wonga is now reported to be worth just $30m. And it emerged at the weekend that the payday lender’s investors had to rescue it with a £10m capital injection. Wonga launched 10 years ago with the promise of instant short-term loans – albeit at more than 5,000% annual interest. In 2011, profit hit £45.8m.

But in 2013 regulators stepped in and forced payday lenders to clean up their act. Wonga had to cancel debts of borrowers who should never have been given loans. And claims management firms targeting payday lenders on behalf of customers have set off a renewed torrent of complaints. Company losses were £80m in 2015 and £66m in 2016. “When Wonga was in the market they were making money,” says James Daley, from campaign group Fairer Finance. “Now they are handing it all back again.”

Sport

UK Sport’s policy of “no compromise” – which rewards successful sports and rips funding from those that fail – has finally come up for debate with Ed Warner’s call for change in the “bloated” and “flawed” Olympic sport funding system putting the focus on medals in the spotlight.

David Richardson, chief executive of the ICC, has complained about the amount of cheating and sledging in international cricket and said that players and coaches have to do more to improve behaviour. Chris Ashton has revealed he is set to play at full-back for Sale following his move back to the Premiership, less than a week after Eddie Jones handed him an England recall and claimed that being on the wing was his best position. Thibaut Courtois has made clear his desire to leave Chelsea before the closure of the transfer window this month by failing to report back for pre‑season training. And Serena Williams has said concerns over motherhood have affected her recent form after she lost 6-1, 6-0 in just 52 minutes to Britain’s Johanna Konta last week.

Business

US sanctions against Iran came into force at midnight. But the EU is telling European companies to ignore Washington’s demand that they drop all business with Tehran. Foreign ministers of the EU’s 28 member states said there was a “determination to protect” economic interests and the nuclear limitation deal, which Brussels, along with China and Russia, continues to support.

Sterling has been trading at $1.294 and €1.119 overnight.

The papers

The Guardian leads with “UK poised to ask Russia to extradite Salisbury attack suspects”. The Times has the same story as “UK plans to extradite Russian poisoners”.

The i has “British tourists stranded after Lombok earthquake” and the FT’s splash is “Trump reimposes sanctions as Tehran regime faces social unrest”. The Mirror warns “Too much sleep is deadly” while the Express has news of a “Secret plot to oust Corbyn”. The Telegraph says “Equity release firms ‘risk meltdown’”.

Most papers have Ben Stokes on the front page, after Bristol crown court heard he mocked two gay clubbers before attacking other men. The Sun has this story as their splash with the headline: “Out of control”. The Mail’s got that as its front-page pic, but leads with a call by Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury, to rip up planning laws: “Top Tory: Build on our green fields – or get Corbyn”.

Sign up

The Guardian morning briefing is delivered to thousands of inboxes bright and early every weekday. If you are not already receiving it by email, make sure to subscribe.

For more news: www.theguardian.com