Reaching a current budget surplus – with tax revenues covering all day-to-day spending, but not investment – is a huge achievement, and the Chancellor should savour it. George Osborne was right to establish his deficit reduction programme, and Mr Hammond was right to see it through until the surplus was reached. But a shift is now needed.

Maintaining fiscal discipline remains vital, but the debt crisis has receded and the big economic issues we face are no longer about fiscal credibility but our poor productivity and whether growth is fast enough. Increased investment to improve the productivity of the economy – on housing, research and development, and infrastructure – would aid growth and boost our economy in the regions.

The next spending review, due next year, should be brought forward, because there is also now space for the Government to increase current spending, gently. Ministers will fight for their share of the money, but the priorities must surely be the NHS and the Armed Forces.

Since austerity began, health spending has been protected: in the 10 years from 2009-10, health spending will have risen by 12 per cent. But adjusting the figures for our growing and ageing population, per capita spending will have fallen by 1.3 per cent over that period.

The King’s Fund estimates that, in the next financial year, the NHS will get £4 billion less than it needs, and it is difficult to imagine that the events of January – when operations were postponed and GPs were drafted into Accident and Emergency wards – will not be repeated next winter.