For the last several election cycles, North Carolina has not held democratic elections for its state legislature.

In the 2018 state House election, for example, Democrats won 51 percent of the state-wide popular vote. Yet Republicans walked away with a 65-55 majority thanks to an aggressive gerrymander that all-but-ensures Republican control in North Carolina.

Yet two recent developments — one of them very recent — make it exceedingly likely that North Carolina will have free and fair elections in 2020. The first is a lawsuit, Common Cause v. Lewis, which was filed in North Carolina state court last November. That suit asks the state courts to declare that partisan gerrymandering violates the state constitution, and to “establish new state House and state Senate districting plans” for 2020.

The second development is North Carolina Chief Justice Mark Martin’s announcement on Friday that he plans to leave his court in order to become dean of Regent University Law School, a conservative Christian-identified school in Virginia founded by televangelist Pat Robertson. Although North Carolina typically fills its courts via partisan elections, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper will appoint a replacement for Martin who will serve until the next election.


That means that the state Supreme Court, which is already heavily Democratic, is about to have a 6-1 Democratic majority. The state’s gerrymandered maps are, to say the least, unlikely to survive contact with such a court.

If the state holds democratic elections in 2020, that could have profound implications for the next decade. In North Carolina, both congressional and state legislative maps are draw by the state legislature — and are not subject to a gubernatorial veto. Moreover, because 2020 is a Census year, whoever prevails in that year’s state legislative races will get to draw the maps for the next ten years. So if Democrats prevail in 2020, they could eradicate Republican gerrymanders in that state for at least a decade.

Not only might Democrats have a real shot at taking the state legislature in the near future, but the vote could help solidify Democrats’ majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Democrats control just 3 of the state’s 13 congressional districts, despite the fact that Democratic candidates frequently prevail in statewide races — thanks to a Republican gerrymander of the state’s congressional seats.

Take away that gerrymander, and Democrats could potentially gain as many as 3 or 4 U.S. House seats in a strong election year for their party.