Trump is set to continue the conversation with McConnell today when the two meet for lunch at the White House ahead of a key vote this week on a Senate budget. The spending blueprint will allow Republicans to adopt a tax overhaul without Democratic votes.

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Amid the effort by McConnell and Trump to forge a working truce, Bannon’s push to stoke a civil war looks counterproductive. But it could actually help nudge the tax project forward.

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Make no mistake: Lines such as these from Bannon at the Saturday summit reflect the depth of the problem facing the GOP as some carrying the Trump banner seek to mount a coup against the likes of McConnell:

“It’s not my war; this is our war. And you all didn’t start it, the establishment started it. But I will tell you one thing: You all are going to finish it.”

“This is a test of wills. And we’re going to determine who is more powerful — the money of the corporatists or the muscle of the people.”

“Yeah Mitch, the donors are not happy. They’ve all left you. We’ve cut your oxygen off, Mitch, okay? Money’s not courageous, but money’s smart.”

But Bannon is eyeing a longer timeline, with aims to field a primary challenge to almost every Republican incumbent up for reelection next year. The fate of a tax plan will be decided sooner than that. And Bannon’s threat should focus the minds of Republican senators otherwise inclined to resist a potentially dicey vote for a tax overhaul.That is, the political imperative to get something, anything, done to show to a restive base back home will outweigh considerations for narrower interests protesting their treatment in the plan.

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Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) laid out the logic Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” telling host John Dickerson that “Bannon can’t beat us if we’re successful. And if we’re not successful, it doesn’t matter who tries to beat us, they’ll be successful.” Graham framed the stakes for McConnell in stark terms, saying a failure to cut taxes and repeal Obamacare will “be the end of Mitch McConnell as we know it.” But he also said that McConnell isn't the only problem. “Our problem is that we promised to repeal and replace Obamacare, and we failed. We promised to cut taxes and we have yet to do it.”

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See Graham here:

His comments echoed those of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), no ally of Graham's, who said Friday that failure to score significant legislative wins on taxes and health care would lead to a "Watergate-level blowout" in the midterms.

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Significantly, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who voted against Graham’s Obamacare overhaul measure last month and has been considered likely to oppose the budget, this weekend sounded more cooperative on the overall tax project. Paul golfed with Trump on Sunday and told a pool reporter that he has been “very excited about the president’s plan from the very beginning, when he put out a 15 percent corporate tax cut. Now, obviously, trying to say 20 [percent]. I just want to make sure we realize we’re competing with the rest of the world.”

All this isn't to say that if a tax proposal makes it to a signing ceremony, Trump wouldn't be remiss in giving Bannon the pen. A few counterpoints:

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Bannon helped sink McConnell’s chosen candidate in the Alabama primary for a Senate seat, and it isn’t clear whether Republicans can count on Bannon’s pick, hard-right former judge Roy Moore, to vote for a tax bill if he wins the Dec. 12 special election. That would cut in half McConnell’s already precariously narrow margin.

There’s no guarantee that Bannon himself will support whatever Republicans produce. Before he was ousted from the White House, the strategist Before he was ousted from the White House, the strategist advocated creating a new 44 percent top marginal rate on individuals earning more than $5 million a year — an increase on the highest earners he argued would help pay for deeper cuts for the working and middle classes. In their latest framework, Republicans headed in the opposite direction, cutting the top marginal rate from 39.6 percent to 35 percent. Tax writers say they could create a new bracket for the wealthy, though it almost certainly won’t match what Bannon had in mind. And a Tax Policy Center analysis of the GOP framework so far found that it concentrates 80 percent of its benefits among the top 1 percent, which hardly sounds like sticking it to the elites.

Bannon’s grand plans could fail to materialize. As Beyond a photo op, what does Bannon's support actually mean for … candidates he is backing? Asked that question directly, a close Bannon ally responded: ‘It’s actually still TBD.’” Finally,. As BuzzFeed reports : “As the GOP appears to be on the verge of another civil war and reports of Bannon's 2018 plans dominate headlines, the big question Republicans are still trying to figure out is:Asked that question directly, a close Bannon ally responded:

Then again, if Senate Republicans think they can hear the hoofs of a Bannon cavalry, that may be all it takes.

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MARKET MOVERS

— Yellen: Economy looks strong. Translation: Get ready for another rate hike. "Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Sunday sketched a bright outlook for the U.S. economy and for inflation prospects in coming months, saying the impact of the recent hurricanes will likely slow economic growth slightly but only temporarily and should be followed by a rebound by year's end," AP's Martin Crutsinger writes. "Her comments suggested that the central bank will soon resume raising interest rates to reflect the strengthening economy. Most economists foresee the next rate hike — the third this year — coming in December."

She's not holding her breath for a tax package. More from the AP: "The Fed chair said the administration's proposed tax cuts may have boosted consumer and business confidence but so far appear to have had little effect on investment or spending decisions. She said the Fed was taking a "wait and see attitude" on how the tax program might affect the economy given the many unknowns about what it might look like when the plan emerges from Congress."

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— Fischer: Reappoint Yellen. "Departing Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Friday called on President Trump to reappoint his boss, Janet Yellen, to stay at the helm of the central bank," Washington Examiner's Joseph Lawler writes. "'He should appoint Janet Yellen,' the central banker said Friday at a World Bank conference... 'Janet is a safe pair of hands,' he said. Fischer did not comment on other candidates Trump is said to be considering for the post. Fischer did say, however, that while having a Ph.D. in economics is an advantage in running the Fed, it is not necessary for a smart person."

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(Randy Quarles was sworn in on Friday)

— Federal offense. John Taylor, a finalist for Fed chair, says the central bank helped fuel the financial crisis by keeping interest rates too low. The Wall Street Journal's Michael Derby: "Fed “policy did seem to go off track” in the early to mid-2000s, causing the economy to overheat, Mr. Taylor said at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston... Speaking on a panel at the Boston conference, he repeated his longtime argument in favor of basing Fed interest-rate policy on established rules. He is best known for creating the 'Taylor Rule,' a mathematical formula for setting rates based on various economic variables, such as growth, inflation and labor-market conditions... Mr. Taylor said Friday that legislation pushed by House Republicans to require the Fed to follow a formal rule would help avoid a repeat of the kind of policy mistakes he says led to the financial crisis."

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MONEY ON THE HILL

TAX FLY-AROUND:

— Collins likes the budget. “I am likely a 'yes' on that budget,” Collins said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “I very much want to see tax reform.”

— Mortgage bankers will compromise. Politico's Lorraine Woellert: "The Mortgage Bankers Association said it is open to a rewrite of homeowner tax breaks as part of a broader reform package, adding to the political momentum in support of a mortgage tax credit. The MBA position comes days after the National Association of Home Builders broke ranks with the real estate industry to endorse changes to the mortgage interest deduction, a tax break that for decades has been considered untouchable."

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— Poll: Tax cuts will benefit the rich. CBS: "Most Americans believe the current tax reform proposals would favor the wealthy, and they already believe the U.S. economic system as a whole is favors the wealthy... Asked which should be a priority -- cutting deficits while keeping their taxes the same, cutting their taxes but having the deficit go up, or neither, more Americans sided with deficit cutting or 'neither.' Cutting taxes if it means increasing the deficit came in third."

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Steve Mnuchin acknowledges the obvious. The New York Times's Alan Rappeport: "Speaking at the Institute for International Finance conference, Mr. Mnuchin said the estate tax should be eliminated for both philosophical and economic reasons. He said that many taxpayers give the government half their income during their lives and that they should not have to give away a big chunk when they die — even if their families are wealthy. 'Obviously, the estate tax, I will concede, disproportionately helps rich people,' Mr. Mnuchin said ... [his] comments contrasted starkly with his boss, President Trump, who pilloried the estate tax in a speech in Indiana last month by saying it is a drag on the working class."

— Cruz: Go bigger than $1.5 trillion tax cut. "Much bigger," in fact. The Washington Examiner: "The Republicans' plan should include significantly bigger tax cuts, Sen. Ted Cruz said Friday, ahead of a critical week of Senate work on the budget. The conservative Texas senator said the deal reached among Budget Committee Republicans to allow for a $1.5 trillion tax cut over 10 years was a 'mistake,' and that "we should be going much bigger and much bolder."

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THE REGULATORS

— Gary Cohn: Clearinghouses are scary. Bloomberg's Jeanna Smialek: "[Trump’s] chief economic adviser [Cohn] said he sees a major risk evolving in clearinghouses, platforms that regulators turned to for swaps following the 2008 financial-market crisis. As 'we get less transparency, we get less liquid assets in the clearinghouse, it does start to resonate to me to be a new systemic problem in the system,' Cohn... said at a banking conference in Washington on Sunday. Cohn isn’t the first to raise the risk. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc. have argued for years that clearinghouses pose their own threats, shifting risk to just a handful of entities. The Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research has warned that clearinghouses used for derivatives trades can be vulnerable and potentially spread risks through the financial system. Cohn himself flagged the concern when he was at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- but now he’s in a policy position with more sway over how the issue is resolved."

BUT, the three largest in the United States just cleared their stress tests. "The CFTC tested three of the largest U.S. clearinghouses— CME Group Inc.’s CME -0.29% CME Clearing, Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s ICE -0.74% ICE Clear U.S. and LCH Clearnet Group Ltd.’s LCH Ltd.—and found that each would be able to generate sufficient liquidity to keep markets functioning even if two of their major clearing member banks were to default," The Wall Street Journal's Gabriel Rubin writes.

TRUMP TRACKER

— Trump's favorite scoreboard. The New York Times's Jacey Fortin: "It is unlike President Trump to cheer when stocks fall, but early on Saturday he did just that:"

"On Thursday, the administration announced it would stop paying subsidies to health insurance companies that help cover costs for low-income people. 'That money is a subsidy for insurance companies,' Mr. Trump said on Friday. 'Take a look at their stocks. Look where they are. They’re going through the roof.' On Friday, stocks for Centene, Molina and Anthem, insurers that have participated in state marketplaces under the Affordable Care Act, slumped by more than 3 percent. Health care providers were also affected. Shares in Acadia Healthcare declined by more than 3 percent and in Tenet Healthcare dropped by just over 5 percent. While Mr. Trump appeared to celebrate this on Saturday, he has pointed to rising stocks as a sign of success in the past. 'It would be really nice if the Fake News media would report the virtually unprecedented Stock Market growth since election,' he tweeted on Wednesday. 'Need tax cuts.'"

RUSSIA WATCH:

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— Priebus probed. Trump's former chief of staff spent all day Friday answering questions from members of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III's team. The Post's Roz Helderman: "The interview, which took place at the special counsel’s office in Washington, is a sign that Mueller’s investigation is now reaching into the highest levels of Trump’s aides and former aides... Mueller’s team has also indicated an interest in interviewing a series of other current and former White House aides, including White House counsel Don McGahn and director of communications Hope Hicks...

During his six months as Trump’s top gatekeeper, Priebus oversaw a White House that was at times chaotic and freewheeling. Aides wandered in and out of important meetings, and Priebus sought to manage his often difficult boss by trying to be physically present with Trump as frequently as possible. For that reason, Priebus was present at key moments that have drawn Mueller’s interest, including as Trump worked to limit the growing questions about Russia’s possible role in his election and in the discussions that led to Comey’s firing."

— Trump campaign covers Jr.'s legal bill. To the tune of $238,000 in the third quarter alone. Bloomberg's Bill Allison: "Trump’s campaign made two payments -- one in mid July, the other in early August -- to the law firm of Alan S. Futerfas, a lawyer for the president’s son, who is facing scrutiny over a 2016 meeting he had with a Russian lawyer while seeking damaging information about Democrat Hillary Clinton. The third-quarter disclosures with the Federal Election Commission didn’t specify what the legal expenses were for... Trump’s campaign paid $1.1 million for legal services from July to September, up from $677,827 in the second quarter and $249,344 in the first, according to the disclosures. The bulk went to Jones Day, the campaign’s law firm, and $25,885 was paid to the Trump Corporation, now run by Trump Jr. and his brother, Eric."

POCKET CHANGE

DAYBOOK

Today

The American Bankers Association’s annual convention continues

The Council on Foreign Relations holds an event on the United States’ trade policies.

Georgetown’s Center for Law, Economics and Finance holds a panel discussion on financial stability.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation holds an event on “America Working Forward”

Coming Up

Tuesday. Bloomberg Government holds an event on the future of multifamily housing on

Tuesday. The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on “Consumer Data security and the Credit Bureaus” on

Georgetown Law hosts the 1st Annual FinTech Week starting on Wednesday.

Friday. The Brookings Institution holds an event on Trump’s deregulatory agenda on

THE FUNNIES

BULL SESSION

How SNL took on Harvey Weinstein:

Watch a Baltimore school choir’s spine-tingling performance of 'Rise Up:'

The moment a California family discovered their dog survived the wildfires: