Do you believe in Trevor Bauer? The Cleveland pitcher has been a polarizing arm since he’s stepped onto a major league field, never holding an ERA under 4.00 across four seasons of 25+ starts paired with a WHIP above 1.30, but Bauer continues to raise eyebrows with 20%+ strikeout rates and stretches where he flashes Top 20 SP ability. We all want him to succeed, but it seems everyone has a story behind why they simply can’t back him.

I’m not here to preach 2018 Bauer as the potential Top 20 SP that was promised nor that his previous struggles should demote him to the bottom of your draft boards. I’m here to tell you that Bauer may have grown in 2017 more than you realize.

The final numbers weren’t pretty – 4.19 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.0% walk rate to name a few repulsive 2017 stats – but that simply doesn’t do Bauer justice. Instead, let’s divide Bauer’s season into two parts: the 19 starts from April 8th through July 21st and the 12 starts to finish the season:

Trevor Bauer’s 2017 Season Date Range ERA FIP WHIP K% BB% IPS FC% SL% First 19 starts 5.58 4.08 1.49 25.7% 9.5% 5.17 10.4% 0.1% Final 12 starts 2.42 3.66 1.21 26.8% 6.0% 6.50 3.9% 13.5%

You’re smart and you’ve already figured out where this article is going. You guessed it from the title but now you really know what’s going on. Good on you, now give me the chance to convince you that it may stick for 2018.

Bauer improved across the board in those final twelve games on the bump, boasting an excellent ERA, bumping his already impressive strikeout rate, and even lowering his free passes to an elite 6.0% clip. This is the Bauer we’ve always dreamed of and there’s plenty to be said about those final two columns, highlighting a clear transition from a hard cutter to a lively slider.

It may be difficult to instill faith in this argument when Bauer only threw his new slider 13.5% in these outings, but hear me out. First, let’s talk about the cutter that failed him.

The Cutter

I need to show you why a cutter wasn’t the pitch Bauer needed in his repertoire. Across all of 2017, Bauer threw 244 of them and it seemed like a decent pitch on paper – 37.7% zone rate, 14.3% whiff rate, above average vertical drop – and it had its moments where it was executed exactly as he wanted it to:

But the cutter also came with an atrocious .325 ISO, a product of inconsistency. Here’s one that floated into the zone and hammered for an out to center:

And another that was a mistake 0-2 pitch that ended in the bleachers:

Bauer’s cutter was a volatile pitch that at times could act as a finisher while it regularly failed to be the offering he needed to keep batters off his fastball. It was neither a skilled pitch to feel confident throwing for strikes, nor was it a stable put-away pitch to end at-bats quickly.

And this ignores that there just wasn’t a need for the pitch. Bauer improved his four-seamer’s zone rate from a poor 48.5% to 53.0% in 2017 and began relying on his curveball as his favorite secondary pitch to steal strikes with, nearly hitting a 40% zone rate after a 35.3% mark in 2016. A cutter that wasn’t working as a premier strikeout offering nor as a pitch he can turn to when needing a strike over the plate meant the pitch didn’t have a proper role in Bauer’s arsenal.

The Slider

So he cut it removed it from his repertoire, turning its cut action and 87.5mph velocity into a lively 84.4mph weapon. The result was plenty of highlights including embarrassing Mookie Betts on back-to-back pitches:

Getting an ugly swing on a slide piece in the dirt:

and even the occasional “gotcha” 2-1 pitch for a reluctant hack:

Yes, I’m cherry-picking a little here, but the focus should be on the look of these pitches as the numbers can tell you the rest. His slider has a sharper, heavier break, and was located down in the zone much more often. Here’s a quick comparison of their heatmaps across 2017 with cutters on the left and sliders on the right:

Notice how often Bauer accidentally elevated his cutter compared to the excellent precision of his slider in the bottom left corner of the zone and off the edge. You won’t find a clearer display of poor vs great command.

It’s time for some deeper numbers. Let me direct you to a table displaying the notable stat differences between the two pitches across 2017:

Trevor Bauer’s Cutter vs Slider in 2017 Pitch Type Zone% O-Swing% SwStr% K% BB% xMov zMov Velocity Cutter 37.7% 28.3% 14.3% 27.3% 6.8% 1.1 4.1 87.5 Slider 29.1% 37.1% 20.6% 40.5% 2.4% 2.1 0.2 84.4

Bauer’s slider has plenty more action on it – four extra inches of drop and an inch of horizontal bend – a better chase rate, and higher whiff rate, with a clear indication of using the pitch when ahead in the count instead of behind. It’s being thrown off the plate and often with two strikes (40.5% K rate!), replacing his third option from a “jack-of-all-trades” label and more as a situational option he can rely on.

The Rest

I’m focusing primarily on Bauer’s shift from a cutter to a slider, though I can’t ignore the strides he made in his other pitches. His curveball usage inflated from 19.4% to 29.8% in 2017 and rendered the highest pVal of all his pitches at a 6.8 mark. As previously mentioned, his four-seamer took strides as well, earning a respectable 53.0% zone rate and making the wise decision of axing his sinker usage (-8.4 career pVal) from 29.2% down to single digits at 9.6%. These are good things and are a large part of Bauer’s reduced walk rate. Bauer also began using his changeup more in his final 12 starts allowing a .261 ISO across the 104 he threw. This is a bad thing and I’m hoping he either fixes the pitch or trusts his two breaking balls to do the trick ala Corey Kluber.

The point is, there are a lot of moving parts with Bauer and it’s not clear-cut that a much-improved third pitch thrown under 15% of the time is the sole reason for his excellent run to conclude the 2017 season. However, it’s possible that having a third pitch that he utilizes appropriately and can command well is the final piece to the puzzle that Trevor Bauer has been searching for.

So What

It’s still early in January and as we approach draft season, I expect to see plenty of polarizing rankings for Bauer. Currently, Tristan Cockroft has him as the #42 SP in front of names like Kevin Gausman and Drew Pomeranz, Bauer was drafted as late as #205 overall in Justin Mason’s early mock drafts, and he is sitting in the Top 150 in Fantrax’s early ADP.

The reluctance to rank Bauer near the Top 30 is understandable, to say the least. There is still concern that his poor sinker and changeup will continue to get demolished by left-handers (16 HRs allowed to 359 LHB faced in 2017!) and his walk rate is sure to rise from its excellent 6.0% clip.

But I believe the reward is well worth the risk. I often talk about a pitcher’s “path to his upside” and after four years in the majors, Bauer is as convincing as ever that he is moving in the right direction to return value well above his draft stock. When looking to grab your #4 starter, I’d love to target Bauer in 2018 drafts as I have faith he can bring a Top 35 SP return given his strides last season.