Indianapolis Colts (No6 seed) @ Kansas City Chiefs (No1 seed). Saturday, 4.35pm EST/9.35pm GMT

What the Colts need to do to win: The Colts aren’t going to be able to stop Patrick Mahomes from scoring touchdowns, so they need to take advantage of the Chiefs’ defense and score on as many drives as possible. Andrew Luck, the comeback player of the year, is quite capable of keeping pace.

What the Chiefs need to do to win: Their defense needs to step up. The Chiefs had the second-worst passing defense in the league over the regular season, which could be quite a problem against Indianapolis, who have won 10 of their last 11 games.

Key player: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. In his first full year as a starting quarterback, Mahomes had a season for the ages, hitting marks that only the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have reached. Now we get to see how he fares in his first playoff game.

Prediction: Colts 28-31 Chiefs

Dallas Cowboys (No4 seed) @ Los Angeles Rams (No2 seed). Saturday, 8.15pm EST/1.15am Sunday GMT

Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley face off for a place in the NFC Championship game on Saturday. Photograph: Michael Ainsworth/AP

What the Cowboys need to do to win: Pretend it’s a home game. The Cowboys have lost their last seven road games in the playoffs. The good news? It’s not going to be difficult for them to imagine they’re playing in front of a friendly crowd. The Rams have yet to fully capture LA’s imagination since their move from St Louis and Cowboys fans, notoriously, travel well. There’s a good chance that the crowd’s loyalties will be evenly split.

What the Rams need to do to win: Jared Goff has to return to form. The Rams QB had a fantastic start to the season, and his success translated to team success, but he came down to earth later in the season, throwing a career-high four picks in an early December game against the Chicago Bears, and struggling against the Philadelphia Eagles. He won’t be able to afford many mistakes on Saturday.

Key player: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams. One of the best running backs in the league, Gurley is still recovering from a knee injury. The Rams expect to balance both him and CJ Anderson during their matchup against Dallas, but if Gurley has recovered, expect him to make a game-changing play or two.

Prediction: Cowboys 28-21 Rams

Los Angeles Chargers (No5 seed) @ New England Patriots (No2 seed). Sunday, 1.05pm EST/6.05pm GMT

What the Chargers need to do to win: Get to the quarterback. While he ended the season with one of his finest efforts of the season, Tom Brady has looked human of late and more vulnerable to pressure. Meanwhile, the Chargers may have the best all-around defense of the teams remaining in the playoffs.

What the Patriots need to do to win: Keep doing what they’re doing at home. The Patriots have a perfect 8-0 record at Gillette Stadium this season and no team will have benefitted more from the bye week, what with Brady showing some surprising signs of age. Oh, and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has never won a game against Brady.

Key player: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots. The Patriots’ playoff success has depended on the health of Gronkowski, maybe the greatest tight end in NFL history. Expect Brady to look for him when his team need to pick up big-time yardage, even though Gronkowski has not had a vintage season by his standards.

Prediction: Chargers 28-31 Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles (No6 seed) @ New Orleans Saints (No1 seed). Sunday, 4.40pm EST/9.40pm GMT

Nick Foles’s favorite time of the year is here again. Photograph: Jerry Lai/USA Today Sports

What the Eagles need to do to win: Once again rely on Nick Foles’s magic. When the Bears’ Cody Parkey clanged the ball off the uprights twice last Sunday, it became tough to deny the fates.

What the Saints need to do to win: Take an early lead. How do you protect yourself from a last-minute collapse like the one suffered by the Chicago Bears on Sunday? You throw a few unanswered touchdowns early and give your solid defense a chance to hold the line. Drew Brees can do just that.

Key player: Cam Jordan, DE, Saints. Jordan is arguably the Saints’ best defensive player, certainly their most reliable one in terms of staying on the field. He leads the team in sacks and getting to the quarterback could be a major deal this week.

Prediction: Eagles 17-31 Saints