by Aaron Schatz

Each week, the New England Patriots inch just a little closer to the Denver Broncos in our weighted DVOA ratings, but once again they have not quite caught up. A large part of the football commentariat seems to have written off the Broncos as one of this year's top Super Bowl contenders, apparently because the Broncos had the gall to lose two road games against quality opponents. (Yes, St. Louis counts as a quality opponent.) There's no doubt that Denver's best games came earlier in the year, but the Broncos have still been a top team all season long. They've lost games, but they don't really have a lot of close victories. Denver's wins are all substantial, with a single-game DVOA of at least 37.1% in each of their last six victories. That includes this week's win over Buffalo, which wasn't as close as the 24-17 final score seems to indicate.

And so, there's still a healthy gap between the Broncos and the rest of the league, nearly 10 percentage points. In weighted DVOA, that gap is between the Broncos/Patriots and the rest of the league, but it is still there. There's also a healthy gap between our top five and the rest of the league. Like everyone else, our top five includes New England, Green Bay, Seattle, and Denver. Our fifth team that is standing above the rest of the league is Baltimore. There was a thought a few weeks ago that perhaps the Ravens were ranked too high in DVOA because the opponent adjustments for beating up on the NFC South just weren't strong enough. However, the Ravens continue to play strong games. This week's win over Miami had a single-game DVOA of 67.9%, Baltimore's best game of the entire season. What's weird about the Ravens is that their worst games have all come against division rivals. The Ravens clobbered the Steelers back in Week 2, but otherwise their four division games are their only four games with negative DVOA ratings.

I've written a few times this year about how 2014 seems to be the year without extremes. For the most part, that's still true. Right now, no team ranks among the all-time 20 best or worst teams by offensive, defensive, or total DVOA. However, there are a couple of places where teams are starting to historically stand out.

First of all, the Philadelphia Eagles improved their special teams DVOA to 9.0% this week, moving them up to 14th place all-time in special teams DVOA through 13 games. It's not spectacular or anything -- the Eagles' special teams DVOA is not as high as last year's No. 1 team, Kansas City, or the No. 1 team from the year before, Baltimore -- but it's pretty good. The Eagles have excelled the most on returns, and they are on pace to become the fourth team since 1989 to rate as at least two touchdowns better than average on both kickoff and punt returns. The other three teams: the 2003 Chiefs, the 2010 Bears, and the 2013 Chiefs.

Teams are also standing out on the extremes when it comes to the running game. The Seattle Seahawks have actually slowed down a bit since a few weeks ago, when they appeared to be threatening the 2000 St. Louis Rams for the record for best run offense DVOA of all-time. The Seahawks are now at 27.3%, which is ninth among all teams we have measured. The gap between the Seahawks and the rest of the league is quite ridiculous, as no other team has a run offense DVOA above 10.0%. Kansas City is second at 9.7%.

An explanation digression here: Remember that for teams, we throw all the plays into one team DVOA rating and then see how teams do running compared to passing. Since passing is generally more efficient than running the ball, that means that the average run offense DVOA isn't actually zero. And since offensive DVOA includes some penalties, that means that the average of running and passing isn't zero either. Right now, the league average for pass offense DVOA is 12.2%, and the league average for run offense DVOA is -5.6%.

But of course, there's average, and then there is Oakland. Latavius Murray had 23 carries for 76 yards in this week's win over San Francisco. For the Raiders, that qualifies as a wonderful rushing performance. Darren McFadden is averaging 3.2 yards per carry this year. and the corpse of Maurice Jones-Drew had 90 yards on 41 carries. As a result, the Raiders have a league-worst rushing DVOA of -26.4% which would be the sixth worst ever measured if the season ended today.

If the Raiders had to play the Detroit Lions this year, that might create a black hole of rushing suckitude so dense, even Matthew McConaughey could not escape. The Lions may actually challenge the 2000 Baltimore Ravens for the title of greatest run defense in recent history. Right now, Detroit's run defense DVOA of -34.9% is tied with the 1991 Philadelphia Eagles as the second-best we've ever measured. The Lions are also allowing just 2.76 Adjusted Line Yards per carry; the record is 2.75 by the 2006 Minnesota Vikings, followed by 2.78 for the 1998 Chargers and 2.82 for the 2000 Ravens. In the last two games, Chicago and Tampa Bay running backs carried the ball a grand total of 17 times for just 18 total yards.

And guess who else has a historically great run defense? Now we've circled back to the reasons why people seem to be undervaluing the 2014 Denver Broncos. It's not as flashy as Peyton Manning throwing for six touchdowns, but the Broncos are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry this season.

BEST RUN DEFENSE DVOA 1989-2014 x BEST RUN OFFENSE DVOA 1989-2014 x WORST RUN OFFENSE DVOA 1989-2014 Year Team DVOA Year Team DVOA Year Team DVOA 2000 BAL -36.6% x 2000 STL 36.5% x 1991 IND -30.2% 1991 PHI -34.9% x 2011 CAR 32.1% x 2005 ARI -29.1% 2014 DET -34.9% x 1998 DEN 31.4% x 2002 HOU -27.4% 1998 SD -32.9% x 1993 SF 30.5% x 2013 BAL -27.2% 2006 MIN -30.5% x 2002 KC 29.3% x 2013 JAC -27.1% 1995 KC -30.5% x 1990 DET 29.2% x 2014 OAK -26.4% 2010 PIT -29.0% x 2003 KC 28.9% x 1995 ARI -25.1% 2008 BAL -28.6% x 1998 SF 27.8% x 1991 PHI -23.0% 2014 DEN -27.9% x 2014 SEA 27.3% x 1998 NO -22.9% 2000 TEN -27.4% x 2006 SD 27.2% x 2006 DET -22.9% 2007 BAL -27.3% x 2005 DEN 26.8% x 2000 ATL -22.8% 2000 SD -26.6% x 2000 PIT 26.4% x 2000 SD -22.5% Note: 2014 teams Weeks 1-14 only, other teams full-season stats.

* * * * *

A quick note on the playoff odds report: we previously did not have the correct tiebreaker format set up for the listing of which team is likely to get the No. 1 overall pick. This week, as part of our reprogramming of the simulator code, we also made sure we had that tiebreaker working correctly. That's very important now that there are five teams with 2-11 records. Beating San Francisco dropped Oakland's chances of getting the No. 1 pick from 65 percent to 11 percent in one week, a colossal change. Instead, the teams most likely to get the No. 1 pick are now all teams that need quarterbacks: Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and the New York Jets.

* * * * *

Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

And this week's players may be coming to MUT a little early this week... but you'll have to wait and see what's up there.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 14 are:

ROLB Melvin Ingram, SD (24-HOUR HERO): Sack, pass deflection, two run TFL plus a third run tackle for just zero yards.

Sack, pass deflection, two run TFL plus a third run tackle for just zero yards. CB T.J. Carrie, OAK: 4 Defeats, including two TFL and two tackles that prevented third-down conversions after receptions.

4 Defeats, including two TFL and two tackles that prevented third-down conversions after receptions. RG David DeCastro, PIT: Led Le'Veon Bell on a counter pull 11 times for 125 yards and 2 TD.

Led Le'Veon Bell on a counter pull 11 times for 125 yards and 2 TD. SS Roman Harper, CAR: 3 passes defensed plus 3 combined tackles.

3 passes defensed plus 3 combined tackles. LOLB Brandon Marshall, DEN: 9 combined tackles, 3 passes defensed, interception.

The stats here might not quite get across how good Melvin Ingram was against the Patriots; he was dominant, but he had a lot of plays that we don't have counted as a stat because Ingram's penetration forced the running back to change directions so he could be tackled by someone else, or opened up a space for another Chargers defender to get pass pressure. Also, we had a hard time deciding whether Ingram and Brandon Marshall should be listed on the left or the right since both players tend to switch back and forth a lot.

We had lots of good possible candidates this week, so sorry if your favorite player who had a big Week 14 game was not included. It's important to do a mix of big stars and under-the-radar players. And if you were really looking for a new Julio Jones and want to know why he's not here, feel free to blame all the complaints we get about doing too many wide receivers!

* * * * *

All stats pages are now updated with Week 14 information -- or will be in the next few minutes -- including FO Premium, snap counts, and playoff odds. Those updated stats pages include the brand new "defense vs. receivers by direction" table we introduced with an ESPN Insider article this weekend. Make sure to check that out if you missed it. The new table gives defensive DVOA vs. passes by distance and direction: short/deep as well as left/middle/right. You will now find that table on the team defense stat page and are welcome to discuss in the comments below.

You can also read the new weekly playoff odds report on ESPN Insider to get more commentary on the current playoff odds.

* * * * *

[ad placeholder 3]

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 14 weeks of 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 35.0% 1 32.6% 1 10-3 24.8% 2 -13.9% 3 -3.7% 26 2 NE 26.3% 2 31.0% 2 10-3 15.2% 4 -5.1% 10 6.0% 3 3 SEA 25.6% 5 24.7% 5 9-4 15.1% 5 -12.3% 4 -1.8% 19 4 GB 24.7% 3 24.9% 4 10-3 27.3% 1 1.9% 18 -0.6% 18 5 BAL 24.0% 4 25.9% 3 8-5 13.1% 7 -2.7% 12 8.2% 2 6 MIA 14.1% 6 15.4% 7 7-6 9.9% 10 -7.2% 8 -3.1% 23 7 PHI 13.7% 7 15.4% 8 9-4 -2.6% 16 -7.2% 7 9.0% 1 8 KC 12.4% 8 18.2% 6 7-6 8.6% 12 1.1% 16 4.8% 6 9 DET 9.8% 11 9.4% 12 9-4 -3.9% 18 -18.3% 1 -4.6% 30 10 BUF 9.4% 9 9.6% 11 7-6 -10.4% 25 -14.9% 2 4.9% 5 11 IND 8.3% 10 9.9% 10 9-4 3.1% 13 -0.5% 14 4.7% 7 12 PIT 7.2% 13 10.4% 9 8-5 20.2% 3 12.6% 30 -0.4% 16 13 DAL 3.6% 15 3.9% 14 9-4 13.3% 6 10.2% 28 0.6% 13 14 SF 2.0% 12 0.9% 15 7-6 -5.7% 19 -12.1% 5 -4.3% 28 15 SD 1.6% 16 0.6% 17 8-5 9.5% 11 6.0% 25 -1.8% 20 16 CIN 0.5% 17 -5.4% 20 8-4-1 -1.4% 15 3.0% 23 5.0% 4 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 STL -0.1% 20 8.7% 13 6-7 -9.1% 23 -5.6% 9 3.3% 9 18 NO -1.4% 14 0.7% 16 5-8 11.8% 8 14.5% 31 1.3% 11 19 ATL -1.6% 19 -1.5% 18 5-8 10.6% 9 16.2% 32 4.0% 8 20 ARI -2.6% 18 -3.4% 19 10-3 -9.5% 24 -10.4% 6 -3.5% 25 21 CLE -3.5% 21 -5.8% 21 7-6 -7.2% 20 -3.4% 11 0.4% 14 22 HOU -7.7% 22 -5.9% 22 7-6 -3.3% 17 0.4% 15 -3.9% 27 23 MIN -9.9% 24 -7.2% 23 6-7 -11.1% 26 1.4% 17 2.6% 10 24 NYG -10.6% 25 -9.2% 24 4-9 -8.0% 22 2.9% 22 0.3% 15 25 CHI -11.1% 23 -17.0% 25 5-8 3.0% 14 9.7% 27 -4.4% 29 26 CAR -16.9% 28 -21.6% 28 4-8-1 -7.8% 21 2.6% 19 -6.5% 31 27 NYJ -18.3% 26 -19.4% 26 2-11 -14.8% 28 2.9% 21 -0.6% 17 28 OAK -22.1% 30 -20.2% 27 2-11 -18.8% 29 4.2% 24 0.9% 12 29 WAS -27.8% 27 -36.4% 31 3-10 -12.3% 27 8.2% 26 -7.4% 32 30 JAC -30.1% 32 -24.1% 29 2-11 -27.7% 32 -0.7% 13 -3.1% 24 31 TB -30.8% 31 -28.8% 30 2-11 -25.1% 31 2.8% 20 -2.9% 21 32 TEN -33.3% 29 -39.5% 32 2-11 -19.1% 30 11.1% 29 -3.0% 22

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).