German Marquez (SP – COL): FantasyPros Consensus ADP 91; NFBC ADP 85

German Marquez is going off the board inside the top 100 overall as the 25th starting pitcher selected. There’s plenty to like about the soon to be 24-year-old Marquez. Yes, some may be surprised to find out that he is so young and has nearly 400 innings under his belt at the Major League level. In a year where only 13 pitchers reached the 200 inning plateau, an all-time low, Marquez finished 16th with 196 innings pitched in 2018. His 230 strikeouts finished seventh in all of baseball, and strikeouts are sexy! His ratios were solid and his peripherals stated that he underperformed. So why isn’t Marquez a top 12 pitcher in 2019? We all know the answer to that question, Coors Field.



Let’s get down to the nitty and find out if Marquez can tame Coors Field this year. The first thing that catches my attention is the first half/second half splits.

German Marquez - 1st Half / 2nd Half

Split ERA WHIP K% BB% HR/9 FIP 1st Half 4.81 1.39 23.5% 8.2% 1.49 4.44 2nd Half 2.61 1.00 33.9% 5.5% 0.68 2.25

While just about everything was going wrong for Marquez in the first half, he completely pulled a 180 in the second half. The ERA estimators show that his second-half numbers were legit, in fact, he should have been even better! There doesn’t appear to be much regression one way or the other in terms of BABIP either (.310 first half, .313 second half). The league average BABIP in 2018 was just .293 and Coors typically inflates BABIP by about 20-30 points. The one concern I have with Marquez is the home run rate. He cut the home run per fly ball rate by nearly six percent while increasing hard contact against. Per BaseballSavant, other than the month of April, Marquez never had a barrel rate of under five percent in the remaining five months. Given the fact that he calls Coors home, I think the home run rate jumps up closer to 1.1 or 1.2 HR/9 for Marquez in 2019.

Flipping over to the pitch splits, prior to 2018, Marquez had already had an elite curveball. I understand that the pitch value of the curve was just 3.3 (0 being average), but check out the metrics. Marquez got batters to chase the pitch 41.2% of the time and induced swings and misses on 20.4% of the time he threw the curve. If that doesn’t excite you, how does a 54.1% strikeout rate with a .151 batting average and 23 wRC+ against sound? That’s fantastic! What Marquez added to his arsenal in 2018 was his slider. He increased the usage of the slider from 4% in 2017 to 18% in 2018. Remember the great numbers against the curve, well the slider got more swings outside the zone, more swinging strikes while being thrown in the zone more often. The results against the slider were even better. Marquez allowed just a 17 wRC+ and a .183 wOBA against. It’s safe to say that Marquez has two elite breaking pitches and he throws them nearly 40% of the time.



Now the negative. His fourseam fastball was not good last year. Marquez throws hard, 95+ mph, but batters do not seem to have issues catching up with it. Marquez was punished with a .385 wOBA and a 145 wRC+ against his fastball. The good news is, he decreased its usage in favor of his far superior breaking pitches in the second half. That’s part of what vaulted his success in the second half. What’s less known about Marquez was his fastball placement. Since the introduction of the slider, Marquez now had hitters off balance with breaking balls low in the zone. In order to counter, he needed to throw his fastball up in zone changing the eye level of the batter. In the first half, he did not do that. Take a look at the location of the fastballs while ahead in the count from the start of the season through 8/8/18.

Notice how Marquez was throwing the fastball middle-middle far too often while ahead in the count. Now let’s take a look at the fastball locations from 8/14 through the end of the season.





He elevated much more frequently! It also helps that Marquez bumped his velocity from 95 mph early in the season to nearly 97 mph in September. Throwing a 97 mph fastball up in the one has the effective velocity of around 100 mph, while his breaking balls were diving below the zone between 80 and 85 mph. That’s just unfair to the hitters. I’m a big believer in the skills of Marquez and at age 24 I’m confident he will continue to be successful. My hesitation in putting him in my top 15 overall for starters due to Coors Field. There will be the occasional blow up if his breaking balls aren’t as sharp. I also don’t believe Marquez has a first half as bad as it was in 2018. His stuff is nasty and he’s a lock for 200+ strikeouts. Coors will keep his ERA above 3.50 but Marquez is quickly turning into a power pitching workhorse. My projections for Marquez in 2019 are:

194 IP, 14 Wins, 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 223 Strikeouts

For your viewing pleasure, please check out this GIF of Marquez elevating his fourseasm fastball against Ronald Acuna Jr. courtesy of PitcherList.

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Featured Image Courtesy of John Leyba/The Denver Post