

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Florida poll finds little change in the state compared to mid-April. At that time Barack Obama led Mitt Romney 50-45 there, and now his advantage is 50-46. Voters in the state narrowly approve of Obama, 49/46, and continue to dislike Romney, giving him a 39/53 favorability rating.

Obama’s strength is based on what’s become a pretty predictable set of groups. He’s up 57-39 with women, 61-36 with Hispanics, 93-7 with African Americans, and 65-27 with voters under 30. Romney’s up 52-46 with seniors and 55-41 with whites but he’d need larger advantages with those demographics to be ahead overall.

Neither of Florida’s most discussed Vice Presidential prospects would have a huge impact on the race. Marco Rubio is slightly popular with a 44/40 approval rating, but his presence on the ticket would only narrow Obama’s lead to 49-46. Rubio would help some with Hispanic voters, taking Obama’s lead down to 55-40 with that group, but doesn’t make a huge dent overall.

Jeb Bush wouldn’t help Romney either. He has a 48/42 favorability rating but with him as the VP Obama’s lead actually increases ever so slightly to 5 points at 50/45. Governor Rick Scott would be detrimental to Romney’s prospects in the state. Scott’s approval numbers have taken a step back in the wrong direction compared to April and now only 31% of voters give him good marks to 56% who disapprove. If he was on the ticket Obama would lead Romney 52-38. Obviously Scott won’t be on the ticket for that very reason but it really speaks to how much he hurts the Republican brand in the state, something that could help put Obama over the top come November.

“Florida’s going to be closely contested this fall as it always is,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But for now we’re finding Barack Obama as a modest favorite in the state.”

PPP surveyed 642 Florida voters from May 31st to June 3rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President

Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 49%

Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt

Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%

Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Jeb Bush?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator

Marco Rubio’s job performance?

Approve …………….. .44%

Disapprove…………. .40%

Not sure …………….. .16%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor

Rick Scott’s job performance?

Approve…………….. 31%

Disapprove………… 56%

Not sure ……………. 13%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Allen West?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q8 If the Democratic ticket for President was

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the

Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Jeb

Bush, which would you vote for?

Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%

Romney-Bush …………………………………………. 45%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket for President was

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the

Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Marco

Rubio, which would you vote for?

Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%

Romney-Rubio………………………………………… 46%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q10 If the Democratic ticket for President was

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the

Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Rick

Scott, which would you vote for?

Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%

Romney-Scott …………………………………………. 38%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 If the Democratic ticket for President was

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the

Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Allen

West, which would you vote for?

Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%

Romney-West …………………………………………. 38%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain…………………………………………… 43%

Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%

Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%

Moderate………………………………………………… 33%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%

Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify

with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%

Republican……………………………………………… 40%

Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.

If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.

Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%

White …………………………………………………….. 70%

African-American …………………………………….. 12%

Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%

30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%

Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%