You should have locked the window

WHEN she defenestrated Kevin Rudd to become Australia's first woman prime minister, Julia Gillard claimed that “a good government was losing its way”. On the first anniversary of Ms Gillard's coup in late June, the words came back to haunt her. She is struggling to convince Australians that she has what it takes to rediscover any sense of direction.

An opinion poll on June 24th gave the government just 30% of first preference votes, a worse score than Mr Rudd's when Ms Gillard toppled him before he had completed his first term. Taking second preference votes into account, Ms Gillard's government would face an electoral wipeout. Once a popular political figure, Ms Gillard has seen her dissatisfaction rating soar from 29% just after she took over as prime minister to 62%. For the first time Tony Abbott, the opposition leader, has pipped her as the preferred prime minister. Even more humiliatingly, another recent poll showed that twice as many Australians wanted Mr Rudd back as Labor Party leader as those who supported Ms Gillard.

Ms Gillard battles on stoically, suggesting that things could get worse for her government before they get better. She has two more years until the next election is due. She is now counting on another milestone in the political calendar: July 4th. That is when the Senate, the upper house, convenes with its new political complexion from the federal election last August. The election left Ms Gillard leading a minority government in the lower house, after striking a deal with the Australian Greens and independents for support. The Greens will hold the balance of power in the new Senate, potentially offering a chance for some of the government's controversial plans to pass.

The most contentious is a tax on carbon emissions that is designed to tackle climate change. Ms Gillard has promised that much of the revenue will compensate households for higher energy costs. A committee of Labor, Green and independent parliamentarians (the conservative coalition opposition boycotted it) is haggling over questions such as compensation for coal-fired power stations, which produce most of Australia's electricity today.

The Greens sided with the coalition to defeat an earlier anti-carbon measure under Mr Rudd, claiming it was too weak. This time, they are signalling their support. Public backing for climate action was once quite strong. But the political squabbling has seen it evaporate. A poll on June 27th by the Lowy Institute found 39% of Australians unwilling to pay any extra electricity costs to combat climate change, almost double the number three years ago. The Greens may choose to bank what they can.

But Ms Gillard faces challenges from them over another tax, on profits from iron ore and coal, Australia's two biggest exports. This would raise about A$40 billion ($42 billion) over ten years, a sum the Greens say is too easy on mining companies riding a resources boom. Ms Gillard wants both the carbon and mining taxes in place by July 2012. Meanwhile, she is fending off attacks from all sides, including from members of her own party, over her plan to swap asylum-seekers arriving by boat in Australia with refugees from camps in Malaysia.

In all cases, Ms Gillard's dismal polls reflect questions about her political legitimacy. Her ousting of Mr Rudd still rankles, especially in Queensland, his home state. She promised before the last election not to introduce a carbon tax. Her proposed deal with Malaysia, a country that has not signed the United Nations refugee convention, flies in the face of Labor's pledge to take a more humanitarian approach than its opponents towards asylum-seekers. Mr Abbott's gibes against her over taxes seem to have increased voters' doubts.

Yet Ms Gillard cannot be counted out yet. Labor elders have warned that re

installing Mr Rudd, or yet another leader, would be folly. Her negotiating skills are one of Ms Gillard's strengths. Since the election, the government has steered 116 bills through parliament. The heads of the National Australia Bank and Westpac, two of Australia's biggest banks, have supported the carbon tax. Ms Gillard says she is “determined to push on with the agenda”. She has little left to lose.