In Part 1 of this series, I detailed the recent aggressive power plays initiated by 30-something Saudi princeling Mohamed bin Salman (MBS), who is effectively the absolute leader of Saudi Arabia at this time. I also highlighted how 30-something U.S. princeling Jared Kushner, son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump, may have been involved in MBS’s scheming during an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia a little over a week before the purge hammer dropped. Today’s post will focus on what I think this means for the future of the Middle East, as well as U.S. imperial ambitions.

Before I get started, I want to make something clear. I don’t think I’m Nostradamus or anything. These posts are based on the assumption that certain realities remain in place in the months and years ahead. The first is that Mohamed bin Salman’s attempt to consolidate power will prove successful, at least long enough for him to make more extremely stupid mistakes. The second assumption is that Donald Trump will continue to foolishly give this princeling a blank check when it comes to whatever insane aggressions he pursues within the region.

It’s perfectly clear that MBS views recent setbacks in Syria, where Saudi ISIS forces were routed by Russia and Assad, as unacceptable. As such, he’s looking for another place to fight a proxy war with Iran. Never mind the fact that his war in Yemen has been a total failure and humanitarian disaster, MBS doesn’t appear to be someone who lets one failure get in way of future failures. He appears to have chosen Lebanon as the place for his next chaotic adventure.

In that regard, I found a post published at Moon of Alabama extremely informative. Here’s an excerpt from that piece:

Four days ago we asked: Is The “Moderate Al-Qaeda” Set To Target Hizbullah?. The implied answer in that piece was “Yes, the war is coming to Lebanon.” Today the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri resigned with a statement issues from Saudi Arabia on the Saudi Arabian TV station Al Arabia (video). This is the opening shot of the war. The Saudi-Israeli-U.S. axis will lose this war while Iran and Russia will win from it. Earlier this week the extremely sectarian Saudi Minister for Gulf Affairs Thamer al-Sabhan had threatened Hizbullah in Lebanon and announced surprises: Firebrand Saudi State Minister for Gulf Affairs Thamer al-Sabhan on Monday called for “toppling Hizbullah” and promised “astonishing” developments in “the coming days.”

…

Referring to his Sunday tweet about the Lebanese government, the minister said: “I addressed my tweet to the government because the Party of Satan (Hizbullah) is represented in it and it is a terrorist party. The issue is not about toppling the government but rather that Hizbullah should be toppled.” “The coming developments will definitely be astonishing,” al-Sabhan added. While the fighting in Syria and Iraq was ongoing, Lebanon was kept at peace. With the wars ending Lebanon is again the place where proxy fights are carried out. The resignation of Hariri is intended to provoke a constitutional crisis in Lebanon and to prevent new parliament elections. The further Saudi plan is likely to evolve around these elements: The Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Hizbullah and against Lebanon in general.

The Saudi government will slip some of its al-Qaeda/ISIS proxy fighters from Syria and Iraq into Lebanon (possibly via Turkey by sea). It will finance local Lebanese terror operations.

There will be new assassination attempts, terror attacks and general rioting by Sunni extremist elements against Christians and Shia in Lebanon.

The U.S. will try to press the Lebanese army into a war against Hizbullah.

Israel will try to provoke and divert Hizbullah’s attention by new shenanigans at the Lebanese and Syrian border. It will NOT start a war. The plan is unlikely to succeed: The Lebanese people as a whole have no interest in a new civil war.

The Lebanese army will not get involved on any specific side but will try to keep everyone calm.

Sanctions against Hizbullah will hit all of Lebanon, including Sunni interests.

A new Sunni prime minister will be found and installed, replacing the resigned Saudi puppet.

Russian and Iranian economic interests will find a new market in Lebanon. Russian companies will engage in Lebanese gas and oil extraction in the Mediterranean and replace U.S. involvement. The miscalculated Saudi/U.S./Israeli plan against Hizbullah can be understood as a helpless tantrum after their defeat in Syria and Iraq. In their manic attempts to push back against perceived Iranian (and Russian) influence the Saudis and the U.S. have enabled Iran (and Russia) to gain better and more secure standing that they could ever have hoped to achieve otherwise. Why the Saudis think that their new adventure in Lebanon will have a different result is beyond me.

I completely agree with the above analysis. Everything Saudi princeling MBS has attempted overseas has been an unmitigated disaster, and I expect his Lebanon plan and any that follow will end the same way. The reason this is so important to the world is Donald Trump has completely attached himself to this reckless lunatic. I’ve been warning about this all year, but in case you have any doubts.

I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing…. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2017

When it comes to the incredible stupidity of Trump going all in with this guy, I came across two perfect paragraphs written by Daniel Larison in The American Conservative.

Trump’s embrace of the Saudis has been one of the greatest blunders of his presidency to date, and today he has reaffirmed that he has profoundly bad judgment when it comes to this relationship. There is no reason to have confidence in Salman and his son after the last two and a half years, and there is certainly nothing to support the claim that they know what they are doing. The war on Yemen has become a quagmire for the Saudis and their allies and a catastrophe for the people of Yemen. Trump supports it. The campaign against Qatar has been a useless and ill-advised misadventure that is also hurting members of the Saudi-led bloc. Trump has been an enthusiastic cheerleader. The crown prince is carrying out a massive purge that will drive away foreign investment in the short term and destabilize the kingdom. Once again, Trump is only too happy to approve of anything the Saudi government does, no matter how dangerous or despicable it may be. Considering his claims to represent American nationalists, it is laughable that Trump is one of the most obsequious sycophants of the Saudi government in the world. Nothing could be less populist or less “Jacksonian” than sucking up to a foreign despotic government in this fashion. As a candidate, Trump criticized the Saudis for taking advantage of the U.S., but since taking office he has been eager to curry favor with them no matter the cost. Thanks to their flattery earlier this year in Riyadh and Trump’s own Iran obsession, he has proven to be the easiest mark the Saudis could have hoped to find. The U.S. and the entire region stand to lose a great deal from continuing to indulge one of our worst clients, and Trump will be remembered for his shameless embrace of one of the world’s most awful regimes.

I’ll take this a step further. I think Trump betting on MBS and his upcoming foreign policy (if you can call it that) failures, will play an instrumental role in pushing the U.S. empire into a more rapid decline accompanied by a massive loss of influence around the world. This is not a person you want to be in bed with, but Trump is a horrible judge of character and his embrace of MBS is just the latest example.

At this point I want to take my key assumptions, that MBS will retain power at least in the medium-term and Trump will give him a blank check, and extrapolate from there. Two things are crystal clear. First, MBS is willing to risk everything in order to fight a war of regional dominance against Iran. Second, Trump also wants a fight with Iran and is willing to use the exact same Iraq playbook as George W. Bush to get it started. I wrote a three part series on the topic earlier this year, which you can find here.

If we assume that’s right, Lebanon appears the place MBS wants to get this fight going next, but it’s unlikely to end there. He’ll carry on with his lunacy until he’s either deposed, or suffers monumental and terminal losses. I don’t think there’ll be much of a coalition of the willing in this battle either. It’s likely to be the U.S., a crazy Saudi princeling and possibly Israel against the rest of the world. Specifically, I found the following passages quite instructive of how Europe is likely to respond to MBS led regional aggression.

Europeans can expect to face intensified pressure from both Riyadh and the US to assume a more hardline position against Hezbollah. The Trump administration has singled out Hezbollah for intensified targeting, and Congress recently passed a bill calling on the European Union to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist group in its entirely (Europeans currently distinguish between its sanctioned military wing and non-sanctioned political arm). But rather than follow this lead, Europeans should veer the other way, taking measures that aim to preserve Lebanon’s stability and governance structures, and to prevent wider conflagration. Iran is clearly a key source of regional instability, and Hezbollah has become increasingly assertive in Lebanon. But there is no wider strategy behind Hariri’s resignation that can realistically dislodge the group’s influence.

If Europe essentially tells the U.S. and Saudi to take a hike on any Iran war, it’ll be clear that the U.S. empire as we know it is finished. While bankruptcy, internal cultural/economic decline and failed wars overseas are all key aspects of a failing empire, the key death knell happens when former allies (client states), start to say no. I think a more aggressive policy against Iran led by MBS and Trump (neither of whom have any credibility) will become a pariah position very quickly. And this doesn’t even account for the fact that Iran is a very different beast than Afghanistan and Iraq. Those two places represented a far easier battle, yet the U.S. is still involved in a multi-decade quagmire in both (Afghanistan is now the longest war in U.S. history).

To use a term from Nassim Taleb, Iran is the definition of anti-fragile. It’s been expecting a war from the U.S. for decades, and it’s managed to survive this long nonetheless. Similarly, Russia is much stronger than it was a decade ago. It’s survived sanctions and is likewise constantly anticipating U.S. imperial moves to crush it. In contrast, the Saudis are decadent royals who’ve grown fat and happy on oil revenue, while the U.S. is a declining empire barely hanging on, thanks mainly to the dollar being the world’s reserve currency. Who do you think’s going to win this fight?

I don’t say any of this with pleasure, I’m just calling it as I see it. The U.S. empire is glutinous, corrupt and vulnerable. If Trump follows this crazy Saudi princeling into his regional vendettas, the American public will suffer greatly. I want people to understand exactly how I see the situation, so as many people as possible are not caught off guard if the scenario I outlined above occurs.

All empires die, and the U.S. is no different. What makes the current situation so dangerous is that much of the American public doesn’t even accept that the country’s an empire in the first place. They don’t understand the incredible significance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Ignorance is not bliss, and the less you know the more vulnerable you’ll be.

We need to inform as many people as possible about what’s coming so they’re not caught off guard. Empires come and go, what matters is how we respond to the turmoil. Will we evolve and discover more conscious and ethical solutions to our challenges, or will we resort to a strongman filled with false promises and an authoritarian answers? You know what I want to see.

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In Liberty,

Michael Krieger



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