Howard Dean to the rescue?

Following up on yesterday’s reports hinting at the likelihood of a brokered Democratic convention in August, it’s worth keeping in mind that DNC Chairman Howard Dean apparently has some kind of plan to intervene.

The narrow margin in delegates, and the growing likelihood that it will remain close, prompted concern on Wednesday from the chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, who said Tuesday night that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton should avoid taking the nominating fight all the way to the party convention in August. “I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April,” Mr. Dean said Wednesday on the NY1 cable news channel, “but if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don’t think we can afford to have a brokered convention; that would not be good news for either party.” An adviser to Mr. Dean said Wednesday that he had not discussed the idea with either candidate. “He was essentially laying down a marker that if need be, he is prepared to step in and try to help resolve the situation,” the adviser said.

Dean added, “The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario.”

That certainly sounds right to me, but I haven’t the foggiest idea what Dean could do.



This is not to say the DNC chair is some kind of figurehead; he’s not. In fact, I think Howard Dean has done a great job implementing an important 50-state strategy, raising lots of money for the party, helping recruit some great candidates, etc.

But, as a practical matter, Dean can sit down with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, aiming for “some kind of arrangement,” but what kind of deal could he offer? Obviously, both candidates want the Democratic nomination, and there aren’t any substitutes. The next best thing, of course, is being the vice presidential nominee, but I’m still skeptical this could happen, especially in “the middle of March or April.”

Even if we put aside the fact that the two candidates don’t appear to like one another, and have little incentive to pick the other as a running mate, I think there’s a more practical problem. By April, Obama and Clinton will probably still be about tied. Given this, I suspect both would tell Dean, “Why should I give up and accept the #2 slot when I’m this close to winning the nomination?”

In short, they shouldn’t. If one candidate seems to be dominating by mid-March or April, Dean may find it easier to push one way or another. But if the landscape looks like it does now, I don’t see a lot of room for making an “arrangement.”

Am I missing something? What could Dean and the DNC actually tell these two that would compel one of them to give up and take the VP slot?