Tony James raises for Hillary Presented by U.S. Bank

TONY JAMES RAISES FOR HILLARY — Per a little birdie: Blackstone President Tony James on Wednesday hosted Warren Buffet and a small group of Wall Street execs at his home to raise money for Hillary Clinton. The guests each maxed out. Guests included Wes Edens (Fortress co-founder and Milwaukee Bucks co-owner) and Cliff Robbins of Blue Harbour Group.

FIRST LOOK: INVESTORS DON’T THINK ELECTION MATTERS — Per a Wells Fargo/Gallup poll going out this a.m. “Half of investors (51 percent) say it will not make a difference [if an R or D wins the White House]; a third say a Republican and 15 percent say a Democrat.” Among other findings: “A majority of investors (74 percent) brace for market volatility in the new year” Full results: http://politi.co/1SPf4dJ


THERANOS FOUNDER FIGHTS BACK — New cover of Bloomberg Businessweek: “Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes fights back.” … Sheelah Kolhatkar and Caroline Chen “go inside the Theranos lab to interview Holmes and see the proprietary technology in dispute. They also speak to many of Theranos’s high profile supporters and detractors. Story: http://buswk.co/theranos Cover image: http://bit.ly/1Z07jVU

GRIFFIN BACKS RUBIO — Per CNBC’s Kate Kelly, Citadel Founder and CEO Ken Griffin is “really excited” to be backing Marco Rubio in the GOP primary. The Illinois billionaire will bundle for Rubio and give money to his super PAC.

EXPLAINING TRUMPISM — FT’s Sam Fleming and Shawn Donnan: “America’s middle class has shrunk to just half the population for the first time in at least four decades as the forces of technological change and globalisation drive a wedge between the winners and losers in a splintering US society. … The ranks of the middle class are now narrowly outnumbered by those in lower and upper income strata combined for the first time since at least the early 1970s, according to the definitions by the Pew Research Center, a non-partisan think-tank in research shared with the Financial Times.

“The findings come amid an intensifying debate leading up to next year’s presidential election over how to revive the fortunes of the US middle class. The prevailing view that the middle class is being crushed is helping to feed some of the popular anger that has boosted the populist politics personified by Donald Trump’s candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. ‘The middle class is disappearing,’ says Alison Fuller, a 25-year-old university graduate working for a medical start-up in Smyrna, Georgia, who sees herself voting for Mr Trump” http://on.ft.com/1OjnrKB

GOLDMAN ON WASHINGTON — Goldman Sachs analysts on the end of year legislative circus: “An increase in business investment tax incentives in 2016 is likely. It appears very likely that the House and Senate will agree to extend 50 percent bonus depreciation, investment expensing for small businesses, and some renewable energy investment incentives for two years, i.e., a retroactive extension for 2015 and a forward looking extension for 2016.”

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Don’t forget to RSVP for next week’s M.M. Breakfast with CEA Chair Jason Furman: http://politi.co/1OgvRlY

HAPPENING TODAY: WOMEN RULE SUMMIT — 3rd Annual Women Rule Summit: Join POLITICO for conversations with women who are leading change in policy, politics, and their communities. Panels will address how women candidates and strategists are changing the presidential race … What is the missing discussion around women and criminal justice reform? What are the untold stories of women innovators? Today, 8a.m.-12:15pm. Livestream: POLITICO.com/live

A LITTLE BIRDIE ASKS … “Has anybody noticed that Hillary Clinton claims Republicans are ‘attempting to defund’ the CFPB but that is impossible since Congress doesn’t fund the CFPB? Does she not know this?”

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Colin Wilhelm on the new Senate Puerto Rico aid bill -- and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m.-- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 [email protected]

SHELBY TALKS BREAK DOWN — POLITICO’s Zachary Warmbrodt: “Negotiations between Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby and Senate Democrats over an agreement to rewrite financial regulations as part of an upcoming spending bill appear to have hit a major roadblock. ‘They are dead,’ a Senate Democratic aide said of the talks. A constant tension in the talks was how far to go beyond just easing rules for the smallest banks. Senate Democrats said yesterday that Shelby continued to ask for more than they could accept.

“The negotiations were an attempt to piece together a compromise version of a wide-ranging regulatory overhaul that Shelby moved through the Banking Committee in May and later the Senate Appropriations Committee, each time in a partisan vote without support from Democrats. … Lobbyists are keeping hope alive that senators will return to the table, possibly after the appropriations bill is resolved.” http://politico.pro/1QfLZu3

CLINTON ROLLS OUT INVERSIONS PLAN — WSJ: Hillary Clinton pledged “to use executive authority, if needed, to crack down on corporate maneuvers that shift profits out of the U.S. Her aim … is to punish companies that engage in what's known as 'earnings stripping,' a common tactic by companies after they move their tax addresses outside the U.S. through so-called inversions. These tax benefits aren't available to U.S.-based companies." http://on.wsj.com/1luWkpv

** A message from the American Bankers Association: Regulatory burden has real-life consequences. For example, a young couple couldn’t get a home loan for their growing family — not because they didn’t qualify, but because arbitrary D.C. regulations tied their banker’s hands. That’s why America’s hometown bankers call on Congress: Pass Reg Relief Now. Learn more at aba.com/RegRelief **

WEISS ON PUERTO RICO — Per Treasury counselor Antonio Weiss: “The choice is stark: an orderly restructuring process that allows Puerto Rico to put its debt crisis in the past and begin the hard work of economic redevelopment; or, a disorderly and chaotic default that risks the economic safety and well-being of the 3.5 million Americans living in Puerto Rico.

“Puerto Rico can and will emerge from the current crisis and return to growth. But there are two paths in front of us. The first gives Puerto Rico the tools it needs to repair its finances and quickly move to the hard work of economic redevelopment. In the second, Puerto Rico does not receive the tools it needs, and the fiscal crisis turns into a humanitarian one. We must take the first path. The Obama Administration stands ready to work with Congress to get the job done.

SENATE GOP INTRO’S PUERTO RICO BILL — NYT’s Mary Williams Walsh: “Under pressure to help Puerto Rico avoid a bond default on Jan. 1, Senate Republicans introduced a bill on Wednesday to extend several forms of assistance to the island. But the measure stopped well short of embracing proposals from the Obama administration, which include giving Puerto Rico access to bankruptcy court. The senators acted as … Weiss … warned that without congressional action, Puerto Rico risked ‘another lost decade.’

“The Republicans’ measure would include up to $3 billion in cash relief, a payroll tax break for residents of the island and a new independent a … The bill also called for Puerto Rico — and all the states — to disclose, for the first time, the true financial condition of their pension systems for government workers.” http://nyti.ms/1NNO3my

TERROR ATTACKS COMPLICATE FED EFFORTS — WSJ’s Emily Glazer, Jon Hilsenrath and Asa Fitch: “The terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., are complicating efforts by the Federal Reserve to resume shipments of U.S. dollars to the United Arab Emirates, a banking hub in the Gulf region. The Fed about three years ago quietly halted regular shipments of hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars to the U.A.E. central bank due to concerns the cash was falling into the hands of Iranian banks that were under international sanctions … Fed officials about a year ago entered talks with U.A.E. representatives to resume those shipments, but the two sides haven’t yet reached an agreement, these people said.

“Fed officials are asking the U.A.E. to share more information about how U.S. dollars move through its central bank and are distributed to other financial firms in the region, particularly through trade finance … The talks were already moving slowly … The November Paris attacks, claimed by Islamic State, and the Dec. 2 shooting in San Bernardino intensified the terror backdrop, moving the talks to the back burner as officials focused on more-pressing issues related to broader threats" http://on.wsj.com/1OjnHJH

MUSLIM POLICIES HIT TRUMP BRAND — NYT’s Hala Droubi, Julie Creswell and Nelson D. Schwartz: “At Lifestyle, an inexpensive home furnishings store tucked inside the Mall of the Emirates here, shoppers on Wednesday examined lamps and picked up picture frames. But they did not see any Trump Home mirrors or lotion dispensers. Just hours after the Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump called for a ban on the entry of Muslims into the United States, one of his Middle Eastern business partners, the Dubai-based Landmark Group, responded by removing all Trump-branded products from the shelves of its Lifestyle retail stores. In the Middle East, as in other parts of the world, the foundation of Mr. Trump’s business is his name, a brand that for many there is synonymous with American success and luxury.

"Regarding the Middle East as a critical avenue for growth, the Trump Organization signed numerous deals in recent years to put the Trump brand on upscale golf courses and residences in Dubai, hotel properties in Turkey, and home furnishings, accessories and décor sold in stores across the region. But the value of the Trump name in the world’s vast Muslim population has been thrown into question since he made his comments. ‘I now feel ashamed to live in a building associated with such a vile man,’ said Melek Toprak, 38, who lives with her sister at Trump Towers Istanbul, an asymmetrical glass commercial and residential complex developed by the Turkish billionaire Aydin Dogan that soars over the city’s central business district.” http://nyti.ms/1IWhbXE

TRUMP DOUBLES DOWN ON MISTAKE — Reuters Breaking Views: "If anything, Trump’s bigoted tirade doubles down on a mistake made by his chief presidential adversary. Dubai was effectively blocked in 2006 by lawmakers including Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton from operating six U.S. ports on national-security concerns, against the wishes of a Republican president. If Trump can’t see that open is better than closed, it’s hard to see how he can make America great again." http://reut.rs/1NNUSVd

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR —

NEW SYSTEMIC RISK COUNCIL HEAD — Per release: “The Systemic Risk Council, a leading voice for financial regulatory reform, announced today that Sir. Paul Tucker has been named as the new Chair, succeeding the Council’s founding Chair, Sheila Bair. Paul is the former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, where he had a distinguished thirty-year career earning a reputation as one of the world’s foremost central bankers and respected financial policy thinkers”

CONSUMER SPENDING SLOWS — Per the JPMorgan Chase Institute: “Using anonymized, aggregated data from 12.4 billion Chase credit and debit card transactions, the research found that consumer spending in … 15 cities has slowed over the past year, from 5 percent in the second quarter of 2014 to 0.5 percent in the same quarter of 2015. … Middle- and high-income consumers, and consumers ages 65 and older, were responsible for most of the slowdown in growth, while low-income consumers and those under 35 maintained relatively stable spending growth” http://bit.ly/1RbjGNm

** A message from the American Bankers Association: What would regulatory relief mean for your hometown? Meaningful relief helps your banker provide reasonably priced loans that allow your fellow Americans to buy a home, expand a small business, send a child to college or save for retirement. Reg relief means creating jobs and opportunity. It means economic growth. It means building a strong future for your hometown. By passing S. 1484, Congress can trim the outdated and ill-fitting regulations standing in the way of Americans’ financial dreams. We call on Congress to Pass Reg Relief Now and let bankers help their communities thrive. Learn more about what reg relief means for your hometown at aba.com/RegRelief. **

Follow us on Twitter Mark McQuillian @mcqdc



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