On Friday, the EU27 issued tough guidelines for the Brexit talks. They want a deal on the UK’s budget liabilities and EU citizens’ rights before even discussing the framework for future EU27-UK trade relations. With progress on these issues, the EU will then discuss the broad goals of a free trade deal, probably from December this year. By autumn 2018, there may be an outline of that trade deal but little more.

Whether it's on having a second EU referendum, challenging May’s Brexit approach, or holding a second Scottish independence referendum, there is remarkable cross-party agreement to focus on autumn 2018. First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, backed too by the Scottish Greens, argues October 2018 could be the time for indyref2. By that autumn, Keir Starmer suggests Labour might actually vote against May’s Brexit deal if it doesn’t exactly mirror the single market’s benefits – even though the EU27’s guidelines explicitly rule this out.

Meanwhile, the LibDems want a second referendum on the Brexit deal, with the alternative to be staying in the EU – again in autumn 2018. Theresa May too talks of an autumn 2018 deal – though she has yet to admit there won’t be a full trade deal then.

None of the parties are suggesting a second EU referendum now. The EU27, and many Remainers, continue to see Brexit as an act of monumental folly – damaging to the EU’s 60 year history of promoting peace amongst its members and inevitably undermining to UK trade and foreign direct investment. And we now know – from May’s Article 50 letter and the EU27’s guidelines – that any future trade deal will not be as good as single market membership. There will be no special exemptions for cars or banks or any other sector.

The SNP are focused on a second independence referendum not a new EU vote – but even they are not arguing for such a vote now though it might allow a seamless transition into the EU.

Theresa May has also argued the Brexit deal must be done and dusted before a new independence vote. UK voters can choose to leave the EU with no idea of the future UK-EU27 deal, but Scottish voters must wait, even once the outline deal is clear.

But what will we know by autumn 2018? We will know if there is an exit deal – principally encompassing EU citizens’ rights and the UK’s Brexit bill. And we will know if the EU27-UK are aiming at a broad, free trade deal. The details of services, trade, non-tariff barriers, customs procedures and more are unlikely to be known. A first stage deal on the Irish border may be clear (but will change depending on the final trade deal). So we will know a bit but perhaps not a lot.

We will know too if talks have broken down. If so, will the UK really head for the legal limbo, trade tariffs and economic crisis of the so-called WTO cliff? Will opposition parties call for an extension of talks, and demand, belatedly, a second EU referendum, or an emergency application for European Economic Area membership?

Amidst the chaos of a talks breakdown, what would Nicola Sturgeon do – demand an immediate independence referendum? Or wait to see if the crisis reverses Brexit for the UK as a whole?

If talks go well, then by autumn 2018, the exit deal will be ratified. But serious trade talks could take another 5-10 years. Waiting for indyref2 until the future deal is clear could mean 2025-2030.

But will things really be clearer in 2025 or later? There will be endless debate about the costs of Brexit – whether looking forward or looking back. By the mid-2020s, many costs of Brexit will already have hit home. And a route for Scotland into the EU by the late 2020s could be slower and more difficult.

There are pluses on both sides for an early decision on independence in the EU. A ‘Yes’ vote would mean a more rapid route into the EU and would help avoid costly unwinding then reintroducing of EU legislation. Equally, if Scotland chooses to be part of a Brexit UK, an early decision means all political energy can focus on the terms of the trade deal and the critical constitutional and policy issues emerging from the Great Repeal bill.

In the end, whether a second independence referendum is held by next year or not until 2030, there is no avoiding uncertainty, risk and debate about Brexit’s impact. The world will not stand still if Scotland waits ten years, costs of Brexit cannot be avoided, and the choices then will not be the same as now. Brexit is a huge and fateful choice by the UK. Scotland needs to decide how to respond sooner rather than later.

The Scottish Centre on European Relations is a new, independent and unaligned Scottish EU think tank, of which Dr Kirsty Hughes is director, chair and a board member.