Editor's Note: This is Part 5 of a five-part series focusing on an advanced analytics look at the 2017 Florida Gators. Read Part 1 here, Part 2 here, Part 3 here. and Part 4 here.



Florida only played two games last year that were decided by single digits – both wins.

That included the dramatic finish to its 16-10 win over LSU, when the Gators recovered their own fumble before kicking a go-ahead field goal, recovering a Tigers fumble on the ensuing drive to set up another field goal to put them up six and stuffing LSU at the one-yard line on the final play of the game.

It doesn’t include the 14-point, fourth-quarter comeback against Tennessee in 2015 or the 43-yard field goal with 2:22 left that pushed them past Vanderbilt that same season to clinch the SEC East in Jim McElwain’s first season as Florida’s head coach. Or the 35-28 loss to LSU two weeks prior when the Tigers ran a fake field goal early in the fourth quarter that turned out to be the game-winning touchdown.

As for the projections regarding how the Gators’ 2017 season will go, expect more of those types of games. Florida is 7-1 in games decided by fewer than 10 points in two years under McElwain, and 12-7 in all other games, although only two of its last 16 games have been decided by single digits. Eight of the Gators’ dozen regular season games this year are projected to be decided by fewer than eight points.

The preseason model assigning a rating to every FBS team and projecting the outcome of every FBS game this upcoming season pegs Florida at No. 21 with a 23.85 rating, up from 20.87 at the end of last season, which was No. 42 in the nation. The Gators, faced with one of the country’s toughest schedules, are projected to win 7.1 games this regular season.

The average rating of their regular season opponents is 18.87, the 15th-highest in the country and fifth-highest in the SEC. As an individual team rating, that would be good for No. 43 in the nation, right between Texas A&M and Syracuse.

Date Opponent Projected MOV Chance to Win Sep. 2 vs. Michigan (Arlington) 1.3 52.2% Sep. 9 vs. Northern Colorado 18.8 79.3% Sep. 16 vs. Tennessee 6.4 61.0% Sep. 23 at Kentucky -0.8 48.6% Sep. 30 vs. Vanderbilt 15.2 74.6% Oct. 7 vs. LSU -3.7 43.6% Oct. 14 vs. Texas A&M 7.8 63.3% Oct. 28 vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) -4.7 41.9% Nov. 4 at Missouri 2.2 53.8% Nov. 11 at South Carolina 7.4 62.7% Nov. 18 vs. UAB 34.7 93.4% Nov. 25 vs. Florida State -10.9 31.8%

Florida went 8-4 in the regular season last year, and it has a 39.7% chance to win that many games this regular season. The most likely outcome is 7-5, which has a 24.3% chance of happening.

The string of close games is projected to start in the season opener in Arlington against Michigan. The Gators are projected to win that game by a razor-thin 1.3-point margin. All but one of their games in SEC play is projected to be decided by single digits, the exception being their Sep. 30 date with Vanderbilt, a contest they are projected to win by 15.2 points.

But it will be another month and a half before Florida is projected to play another such game. After that game against the Commodores, the Gators’ next five games are projected to be decided by an average of 5.2 points per contest. The Gators are projected to have a 77.8% chance to finish somewhere between 6-6 and 9-3. That five-game stretch is likely to decide where in that spectrum Florida falls.

And the way the Gators have performed in close games under McElwain, the fact that they are projected to play that many close games this year bodes well for them.