Signing day matters. All five national champions in the College Football Playoff era assembled a top-10 recruiting class for the season they won the title. It's hardly a surprise that teams boasting the best players reach the pinnacle of the pigskin pantheon. But with true freshmen contributing now more than ever, championship contenders need to recruit players who can make an instant impact out of high school every year.

In an era in which star rankings define every prospect group, a top-notch recruiting class has come to separate elite teams from the rest of the pack before any games are even played. Using recruiting trends of the past 10 years, we have put together a formula to predict who will win next year's College Football Playoff National Championship in New Orleans.

Sorry, you don't have a direct line to Rob Mullens. The selection committee won't help here. Think you can guess which team comes out on top?

1. Do you have an ESPN 300 quarterback on your roster?

All five College Football Playoff champions have had an ESPN 300 quarterback on their roster (though not necessarily playing in the championship game).

Out of 130 FBS teams, 62 currently have at least one ESPN 300 quarterback on the roster. Notable teams that don't include Florida State, Arizona, Iowa, Vanderbilt and Texas Tech.

ESPN 300 QB on the roster Pass Fail Michigan

Shea Patterson, Brandon Peters,

Dylan McCaffrey, Joe Milton, Cade McNamara Air Force

None Washington

Jacob Eason, Jacob Sirmon,

Colson Yankoff, Dylan Morris Arizona

None Alabama

Tua Tagovailoa, Taulia Tagovailoa,

Paul Tyson Akron

None Arizona State

Dillon Sterling-Cole, Jayden Daniels,

Joey Yellen Appalachian State

None Florida

Feleipe Franks, Emory Jones,

Jalon Jones Arkansas State

None LSU

Joe Burrow, Myles Brennan,

Peter Parrish Army

None Miami

Tate Martell, N'Kosi Perry,

Jarren Williams Ball State

None Penn State

Sean Clifford, Michael Johnson Jr.,

Ta'Quan Roberson Bowling Green

None Stanford

K.J. Costello, Davis Mills,

Jack West Buffalo

None Texas

Sam Ehlinger, Casey Thompson,

Roschon Johnson Central Michigan

None USC

Matt Fink, Jack Sears,

J.T. Daniels Charlotte

None West Virginia

Jack Allison, Austin Kendall,

Woodrow Lowe III Coastal Carolina

None Arkansas

Daulton Hyatt, Connor Noland Colorado State

None Auburn

Joey Gatewood, Bo Nix Cincinnati

None Baylor

Gerry Bohanon, Jacob Zeno Duke

None California

Brandon McIlwain, Chase Garbers East Carolina

None Clemson

Trevor Lawrence,

Taisun Phommachanh Eastern Michigan

None Mississippi State

Jalen Mayden, Garrett Shrader Florida International

None Missouri

Shawn Robinson, Connor Bazelak Florida State

None Nebraska

Adrian Martinez, Luke McCaffrey Fresno State

None Notre Dame

Avery Davis, Phil Jurkovec Georgia Southern

None Oklahoma

Tanner Mordecai, Spencer Rattler Georgia State

None Texas A&M

Kellen Mond, James Foster Georgia Tech

None Boise State

Hank Bachmeier Hawaii

None Boston College

Sam Johnson Houston

None BYU

Jacob Conover Indiana

None Colorado

Tyler Lytle Iowa

None Florida Atlantic

Chris Robison Kansas

None Georgia

Jake Fromm Liberty

None Illinois

Dwayne Lawson Louisiana

None Iowa State

John Kolar Louisiana Tech

None Kansas State

Chris Herron Marshall

None Kent State

Woody Barrett UMass

None Kentucky

Terry Wilson Miami (Ohio)

None Louisville

Jawon Pass Middle Tennessee

None Maryland

Kasim Hill Minnesota

None Memphis

Brady White Navy

None Michigan State

Brian Lewerke New Mexico State

None NC State

Bailey Hockman North Texas

None Nevada

Malik Henry Northern Illinois

None New Mexico

Sheriron Jones Ohio

None North Carolina

Sam Howell Pittsburgh

None Northwestern

Hunter Johnson Purdue

None Ohio State

Justin Fields Rice

None Oklahoma State

Spencer Sanders San Diego State

None Old Dominion

Messiah DeWeaver San Jose State

None Ole Miss

Matt Corral SMU

None Oregon

Tyler Shough South Alabama

None Oregon State

Tristan Gebbia Southern Miss

None Rutgers

Artur Sitkowski Temple

None South Carolina

Ryan Hilinski Texas State

None South Florida

Blake Barnett Texas Tech

None Syracuse

Tommy Devito Troy

None TCU

Justin Rogers Tulane

None Tennessee

Jarrett Guarantano UAB

None Toledo

Carter Bradley UConn

None Tulsa

Zach Smith UL Monroe

None UCF

Brandon Wimbush UNLV

None UCLA

Dorrian Thompson-Robinson Utah State

None Utah

Cameron Rising UTEP

None Washington State

Connor Neville UTSA

None Wisconsin

Graham Mertz Vanderbilt

None Virginia

None Virginia Tech

None Wake Forest

None Western Kentucky

None Western Michigan

None Wyoming

None

2. Did you sign at least one five-star recruit in the previous three classes?

The first five playoff champions have all had multiple five-star players on their roster.

There are 16 schools that signed at least one five-star player from 2017 to 2019: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and UCLA.

Five-star recruits on the roster Pass Fail Georgia

9 Arkansas

0 Alabama

7 Arizona State

0 Ohio State

4 Baylor

0 Clemson

3 Boise State

0 LSU

2 Boston College

0 Penn State

2 BYU

0 Tennessee

2 California

0 Auburn

1 Colorado

0 Michigan

1 Florida

0 Michigan State

1 Florida Atlantic

0 Oklahoma

1 Illinois

0 Oregon

1 Iowa State

0 Stanford

1 Kansas State

0 Texas

1 Kent State

0 Texas A&M

1 Kentucky

0 UCLA

1 Louisville

0 Maryland

0 Memphis

0 Miami

0 Mississippi State

0 Missouri

0 NC State

0 Nebraska

0 Nevada

0 New Mexico

0 North Carolina

0 Northwestern

0 Notre Dame

0 Oklahoma State

0 Old Dominion

0 Ole Miss

0 Oregon State

0 Rutgers

0 South Carolina

0 South Florida

0 Syracuse

0 TCU

0 Toledo

0 Tulsa

0 UCF

0 USC

0 Utah

0 Washington

0 Washington State

0 West Virginia

0 Wisconsin

0

3. Have you averaged a top-10 class over the past four recruiting cycles?

Each of the five playoff champions consistently finished with top-10 classes on the signing days leading up to their national title. Alabama landed the top class in each of the four cycles before its 2015 championship. The weakest of the five champions was 2016 Clemson, whose average rank from 2013 to 2016 was 9.3.

This test knocks us down to six contenders: Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Michigan and Ohio State.

Four-year class average Pass Fail Alabama

2.5 Oklahoma

10.8 Georgia

3.3 Auburn

11 Ohio State

5.5 Texas A&M

12.5 Clemson

7.8 Penn State

12.8 LSU

7.8 Texas

13.8 Michigan

9.5 Tennessee

16.8 Oregon

19.3 Stanford

22 UCLA

23.3 Michigan State

28.8

4. Are you locking down the home state?

The five playoff champions have all landed at least one-third of in-state ESPN 300 recruits in the four years leading up to winning the title.

Georgia (39-of-136) falls short of that mark, though to be fair, the state of Georgia produced nearly twice as many ESPN 300 prospects (136) as Ohio, South Carolina and Michigan combined (74).

Four-year home-state recruiting average Pass Fail LSU

54 percent (31-of-54) Georgia

29 percent (39-of-136) Michigan

48 percent (11-of-23) Ohio State

46 percent (17-of-37) Alabama

38 percent (18-of-45) Clemson

36 percent (5-of-14)

5. Are you bringing in top-tier defensive talent?

It's often said that defense wins championships, and that has been the case for the playoff champions thus far. Each of the winners signed at least five defensive players ranked in the top 50 overall in the four recruiting cycles prior to their title.

Sorry, Michigan (four).

Top-50 defensive players Pass Fail Alabama

11 Michigan

4 Ohio State

9 LSU

8 Clemson

6

6. Do you have one of the best incoming classes in your conference?

Four of the five champions brought in the best recruiting class in their conference for the season they won the title, and Clemson brought in the second-best class in the ACC in 2016 (behind Florida State).

LSU currently has the fourth-best class in the SEC in 2019, while Ohio State's ranks third in the Big Ten. Alabama and Clemson have the best classes in their respective conferences.

Class rank in-conference Pass Fail Alabama

First Ohio State

Third Clemson

First LSU

Fourth

Conclusions

Clemson has been the thorn in Alabama's side, beating the Crimson Tide twice in the past three seasons. The Tigers won it all last season after putting together the fifth-best recruiting class in 2018 -- one spot better than Alabama. It doesn't seem like the Tigers are going away anytime soon, either.

Based on our formula, it seems we're staring down a fifth straight meeting between Alabama and Clemson in the College Football Playoff. Who wins the title? At least based on recruiting, it's too close to call.

Nick Saban has crafted a masterful class in 2019. It is Alabama's sixth top-tier group in eight years and the 11th top-three of Saban's tenure. Saban and the Crimson Tide owned the nation's top recruiting class in both 2015 and 2017 -- both years they won the national championship. This year, Alabama has two five-star recruits -- three who are top-rated at their positions -- and all together the Crimson Tide has a record 25 ESPN 300 prospects committed or signed.

The Tigers, meanwhile, solidified a fifth consecutive top-10 class by signing all 27 of their commitments during the early signing period. Dabo Swinney's path to restocking a defense that ranked fifth in total defense in 2018 begins with Andrew Booth and Sheridan Jones, two of the top 15 cornerbacks in the nation. The Tigers also signed five four- and three-star defensive linemen in this class. They will compete with 2018 five-stars K.J. Henry and Xavier Thomas to replace all five starting defensive linemen from this past season's championship squad.

ESPN Stats & Information's Troy Perlowitz and Bryan Ives contributed to this story.