Article content continued

In a recent note to clients, Société Générale FX Strategist Olivier Korber warned that “Canada’s status as a privileged trade partner should be increasingly discounted by FX markets.”

But in something of a contrast to analysts who have warned that a U.S. exit from the North American Free Trade Agreement would imperil Canadian prosperity, Barasch believes “the sum total of Mr. Trump’s policy proposals would be positive for Canada and Canadian stocks, at least for a time.”

On immigration in particular, the strategist sees Canada’s advantageous position relative to the U.S. growing even more if Trump is elected, citing his plan to deport illegal immigrants and build a wall along the Mexican border.

Canadian policymakers have often bemoaned the country’s “brain drain” — the propensity for high-performing individuals in professional services industries to be lured to the U.S. by the promise of higher pay. In the event that Trump prevails in November, Barasch sees Canada benefiting from a brain gain instead.

The loser in this scenario according to the strategist would, however, be humanity.

“Under Mr. Trump’s plan, the immigration divide between Canada and the U.S. figures to widen even further,” he concludes. “Not only would Canada stand to benefit from increased access to lower cost unskilled workers, but also from increased access to skilled immigrant labour as the U.S. market is potentially viewed as less hospitable to immigrants overall.”