Poll predicts Obama landslide in California His margin expected to pass Reagan's, thanks to youths, Latinos, independents

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Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is poised to win California by the biggest landslide in the history of modern elections - outweighing even Ronald Reagan's huge wins in his home state - thanks to a crushing margin of support from young voters, independents and Latinos, a new Field Poll shows.

Obama and his vice presidential running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, now lead Republican presidential candidate John McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin by a whopping 55-33 percent in the nation's most populous state, according to the Field Poll of 966 likely voters conducted Oct. 18-28.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said that Obama's huge lead underscores the Democrat's solid success in appealing to voter groups that are emerging as the fastest-growing and potentially most influential electorates in the nation.

The Illinois senator is leading McCain in every area of the state, among every age group except voters over 65, and holds leads in every demographic and income group, as well as among both men and women, the poll shows.

"He really is doing very well among the new emerging voters in California, in the largest areas where the voting population is growing fastest - the Latino vote, the youth vote and the nonpartisan vote," DiCamillo said. "These are groups that will have a huge amount of influence down the road."

With just five days until the November 2008 election, the latest Field Poll also underscores the potential impact of the coming election on congressional races. Asked their preferences for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district, 50 percent said they are inclined to vote for Democrats, while just 29 percent expressed a preference for Republicans in those seats, the poll showed.

DiCamillo said the latest survey dramatizes some of the historic trends that have, from the start, made a GOP presidential win a serious uphill battle.

"This election is being held at a time when there is overwhelming agreement among Californians and Americans that the country is seriously on the wrong track," said DiCamillo. "And it's being held at a time when the incumbent administration is getting record low job-performance ratings and have gotten them for more than a year."

"So the opportunity for the party out of office to capture the presidency is very high," he said. "It was really up to Obama to convince voters that he was up to the task and make voters comfortable enough with him - and I think he's succeeded."

And DiCamillo said the poll also underscores the failure of McCain's strategy to push the Democrat's unfavorable ratings higher through negative attacks, DiCamillo said.

The poll shows that despite GOP attacks suggesting Obama is too radical and untested to be president, Obama continues to hold 61 percent favorable ratings with California, compared to 30 percent who view him unfavorably.

But McCain's standing among voters has fallen since those attacks began. In January, McCain was viewed favorably by 50 percent of the voters, compared to 28 percent who viewed him unfavorably; today, more voters see the Arizona senator in an unfavorable light - 47 percent, compared to just 43 percent who view him favorably.

Among the other findings of the Field Poll:

-- The choice of Palin as McCain's vice president has been viewed through an "extremely partisan" lens, said DiCamillo.

While Republicans view Palin positively by 74-19 percent, Democrats and nonpartisans have a very negative image of her; Democrats hold a 75-15 percent unfavorable-favorable rating of Palin, and nonpartisans also have a 65-20 percent negative assessment of her, the poll showed.

The Palin pick "really did nothing to broaden the McCain support levels among his own base," said DiCamillo, who said that Democratic and independent voters tended to see it as a choice that "reflected poorly on his judgment."

By contrast, Biden is viewed more positively than negatively, by a 57-24 percent ratio.

-- McCain is leading among Protestant voters by a 51-38 percent ratio, and he holds leads among evangelical Christians with a strong 56-34 percent ratio. But other religions, including Catholics, are overwhelmingly with Obama, the poll shows.

-- Registered Democrats are 85 percent favorable toward Obama, with 7 percent unfavorable, but Republicans are not quite so strong in their support of McCain, with just 80 percent being favorable to the GOP candidate, and 12 percent unfavorable.

The Field Poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points among likely voters.