The Field Narrows: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 13) Oklahoma looks playoff-bound after winning the Big 12, and the Big 10 winner is likely get in, too

Oklahoma looked impressive. Clemson and Alabama held their ground at the top. Iowa and Michigan State are now on a collision course. Stanford and North Carolina remain in the hunt, but don’t control their own fate. Ohio State lurks in the background.

So ends the final weekend of regular-season college football. Now the conference championships will decide which four teams make the playoff. There were 13 teams in contention for a playoff spot going into this past weekend; coming out, only eight of them realistically have a shot now.

Here are our updated projections following the Thanksgiving weekend games. (These numbers will change again on Tuesday night after the new committee rankings are released.)

Ranking Probability of … Team CFP Elo FPI Conf. Title Playoff Nat. Title Oklahoma 11-1 3 3 1 100% 99% ▲ 35 41% Alabama 11-1 2 1 2 74% 79% ▲ 15 25% Clemson 12-0 1 5 7 56% 74% ▲ 21 13% Michigan St. 11-1 5 4 14 62% 60% ▲ 13 8% Iowa 12-0 4 12 26 38% 39% ▲ 8 a 3% Ohio State 11-1 8 2 3 0% 22% ▲ 21 6% North Carolina 11-1 14 9 15 44% 16% ▲ 6 a 2% Stanford 10-2 9 6 11 48% 10% ▼ 6 a 2% Florida 10-2 12 22 23 26% <1% ▼ 12 <1% Florida State 10-2 13 8 10 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Baylor 9-2 7 17 4 0% <1% ▼ 21 <1% Northwestern 10-2 16 18 56 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Washington St. 8-4 20 44 53 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Temple 10-2 25 27 49 47% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Toledo 9-2 24 32 48 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Navy 9-2 15 30 44 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Utah 9-3 23 37 28 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Oregon 9-3 17 7 25 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Mississippi St. 8-4 21 25 22 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% UCLA 8-4 22 35 21 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Michigan 9-3 10 21 19 0% <1% ▼ 7 a <1% Oklahoma St. 10-2 11 19 17 0% <1% ▼ 10 <1% Notre Dame 10-2 6 13 9 — a <1% ▼ 21 <1% TCU 10-2 19 10 6 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% Mississippi 9-3 18 11 5 0% <1% ▲ 21 <1% College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Nov. 24. Playoff probability changes are since Nov. 25; only changes greater than 5 percentage points are shown.

We can think of the four playoff positions as belonging to the following teams: