Markus Howard

Point Guard, Marquette

5-11, 175 lbs

6-0 wingspan





Not only do I think Howard should be drafted, I would take him in the late lottery to mid first round range. Here’s why...

First, here are a couple of fun facts:



Fun fact #1: Who are the only major conference college guards this decade to score at least 23 points per game with a true shooting % of at least 60, and a box plus minus of at least 8?



Answer: Buddy Hield and Markus Howard



Fun fact #2: Buddy Hield was 23 years old at this point during his 2015-2016 season (the one mentioned the first fun fact), while Markus Howard is currently just 19 years old.



Fun fact #3: If you keep the parameters from the first fact the same except for including players from all conferences and moving the TS% down to 55%, Trae Young, Ja Morant, Markelle Fultz and Markus Howard are the only players 20 years old or less that fit the bill.





Fun fact #4: Trae Young and Markelle Fultz were both top 5 picks in the NBA draft, and Ja Morant is currently being mocked in the top 5 very consistently. Markus Howard, however, is not.

Fun fact #5: There has only been 4 seasons where a major conference freshman, sophomore or junior has averaged at least 8 three point attempts and shot 40% from three, and at least 3 free throw attempts, and shot at least 90% from the line. Those 4 seasons were by JJ Redick, Jodie Meeks, Markus Howard, and Markus Howard.



Fun fact 6: Of the 4 seasons mentioned in fun fact #5, only two of them were done by players who were younger than 20 at the start of the season. Those 2 are Markus Howard, and… Markus Howard.



So what can we learn from these facts? Markus Howard’s shooting ability is all-time level great. He is in the conversation for greatest shooter in the history of college basketball. His scoring ability and creation for a guard is also all-time level great. Let’s dive into why this is true.

Howard is a pretty incredible catch and shoot 3 point marksmen and is also a fantastic free throw shooter which is a pretty good indication that he will be an elite shooter in the NBA. He can come off screens and hit threes with a fairly quick release, great form and focus into his shot. He moves well off screens without the ball, leading to threes like this one:





Howard is a fantastic shooter in catch and shoot situations, but what sets him apart from most shooters as an NBA prospect is his ability to create space and then shoot off the dribble. He uses crossovers like this one, Howard is a fantastic shooter in catch and shoot situations, but what sets him apart from most shooters as an NBA prospect is his ability to create space and then shoot off the dribble. He uses crossovers like this one,





ball screens like this one,



ball screens like this one,

Or most awesomely ridiculous step backs like these two. Or most awesomely ridiculous step backs like these two.







Howard is also elite and often almost unguardable in transition or in no help situations because when

you back up on him, he’ll do you like this: Howard is also elite and often almost unguardable in transition or in no help situations because whenyou back up on him, he’ll do you like this:





But if you come up on him too far defensively, he’s strong enough and quick enough to get to the basket and score with ease such as on this play. But if you come up on him too far defensively, he’s strong enough and quick enough to get to the basket and score with ease such as on this play.







Howard’s ability to pull up, step back and shoot off the dribble is nearly unprecedented for a player of his age. These skills are usually among the last to develop for an offensive player. Even for James Harden it took years to perfect his step back and become an elite shooter off the dribble. Howard is nowhere near Harden’s level in terms of creating his own three point shot, but he is probably as close as anyone has ever been as a 19 year old.



Howard is also an incredible off balance shooter and does not miss a beat with a hand in his face. He has a penchant for being an incredible shot-maker who can score against bigger players. Howard’s ability to pull up, step back and shoot off the dribble is nearly unprecedented for a player of his age. These skills are usually among the last to develop for an offensive player. Even for James Harden it took years to perfect his step back and become an elite shooter off the dribble. Howard is nowhere near Harden’s level in terms of creating his own three point shot, but he is probably as close as anyone has ever been as a 19 year old.Howard is also an incredible off balance shooter and does not miss a beat with a hand in his face. He has a penchant for being an incredible shot-maker who can score against bigger players.





Starting with offense, he has a long way to go as a lead ball handler and distributor. Part of what makes James Harden, or even Lillard and Walker so great as a lead ball handler is their ability to handle the ball, lead an offense and kick the ball out when they are not scoring. Howard has improved his assist numbers to a solid 4.1 this season without Andrew Rousey in the offense, but compared to his turnovers which are at 3.5, it’s not that impressive for a point guard. And at just 5-11 with a 6-0 wingspan, unless he is playing with a guy like Ben Simmons at the point, he cannot play the two guard position. Howard has a long way to go in his development as a lead ball handler, but he is only 19 years old. Because he is a junior in college, people often forget how young he is. 19 year olds have a lot of time to improve their game, especially when a player has the work ethic like Markus Howard’s. Another area on offense where Howard has a long way to go is finishing near the rim. According to ESPN, Howard is finishing shots at the rim at a rate of just 41.4 percent. This rate is very poor and needs a lot of improvement.



However, again Howard has a lot of time to improve this aspect of this game, and he doesn’t need to be a great finisher the way Romeo Langford or Ja Morant are. With his shooting ability and ability to create his own shot, he just needs to be able to keep defenses honest with his driving ability through solid finishing and floaters. I think that is definitely doable for Howard. Now lastly to by far his biggest weakness: defense. Howard is not a good defender at the college level and this will only get worse in the NBA. He has very poor size for a point guard at 5-11 with a wingspan of 6-0 that would be almost the shortest in the entire NBA. He will almost definitely never be an even average NBA defender, but due to his high IQ, NBA teams can hope that he will improve his off ball defense, which is already solid, even more. In terms of on ball defense, Howard does a solid job getting steals while fouling very little and has improved his defense significantly this season, raising his DBPM from -2.2 to a solid 0.4. If he loses some of his offensive load in the NBA, there is a good chance his defense will improve. He also packs some muscle in his short frame, and his build will only improve, which helps his ability to guard NBA level athletes. I personally think he can get to the level of Damian Lillard, JJ Barea or Kemba Walker defensively, which makes him very playable on that end of the floor. That does not seem unrealistic.



Finally to Howard’s 80/50/20

80th percentile outcome in the NBA: Damian Lillard/Kemba Walker level player on both sides of the ball

50th percentile outcome in the NBA: Better scoring and shooting version of peak JJ Barea/DJ Augustin, making him an NBA starter on a worse team or an elite bench scorer on a contender

20th percentile outcome in the NBA: Back of an NBA rotation player who plays more when hot



That currently puts him in the 14 to 18 range on my big board.









Looking at all of this evidence, it seems clear that Howard’s offensive ceiling is enormous. He compares closely at the college level to some of the best scoring NBA guards of recent years, guysn like Damian Lillard, Isaiah Thomas, Steph Curry and Kemba Walker, with better college numbers than all four. His realistic offensive ceiling as a scorer is likely more on the Lillard, Thomas and Walker level than the Curry level simply due to his size, very small wingspan and lack of elite athleticism. However, these three guys are some of the best scorers in the NBA (well Thomas was at least), meaning that there are very few players in this draft with a higher offensive ceiling in this draft than Howard. The only ones in my opinion that you can make a good argument for are Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Ja Morant and possibly guys like Jarrett Culver, Darius Garland, Bol Bol or Romeo Langford. But I would rate Howard’s offensive ceiling, in particular as a scorer, over everyone except for the first 3, and with Barrett and Morant it’s very, very close. Despite this offensive ceiling, there are still a lot of problems with Howard as an NBA prospect.Starting with offense, he has a long way to go as a lead ball handler and distributor. Part of what makes James Harden, or even Lillard and Walker so great as a lead ball handler is their ability to handle the ball, lead an offense and kick the ball out when they are not scoring. Howard has improved his assist numbers to a solid 4.1 this season without Andrew Rousey in the offense, but compared to his turnovers which are at 3.5, it’s not that impressive for a point guard. And at just 5-11 with a 6-0 wingspan, unless he is playing with a guy like Ben Simmons at the point, he cannot play the two guard position. Howard has a long way to go in his development as a lead ball handler, but he is only 19 years old. Because he is a junior in college, people often forget how young he is. 19 year olds have a lot of time to improve their game, especially when a player has the work ethic like Markus Howard’s. Another area on offense where Howard has a long way to go is finishing near the rim. According to ESPN, Howard is finishing shots at the rim at a rate of just 41.4 percent. This rate is very poor and needs a lot of improvement.However, again Howard has a lot of time to improve this aspect of this game, and he doesn’t need to be a great finisher the way Romeo Langford or Ja Morant are. With his shooting ability and ability to create his own shot, he just needs to be able to keep defenses honest with his driving ability through solid finishing and floaters. I think that is definitely doable for Howard. Now lastly to by far his biggest weakness: defense. Howard is not a good defender at the college level and this will only get worse in the NBA. He has very poor size for a point guard at 5-11 with a wingspan of 6-0 that would be almost the shortest in the entire NBA. He will almost definitely never be an even average NBA defender, but due to his high IQ, NBA teams can hope that he will improve his off ball defense, which is already solid, even more. In terms of on ball defense, Howard does a solid job getting steals while fouling very little and has improved his defense significantly this season, raising his DBPM from -2.2 to a solid 0.4. If he loses some of his offensive load in the NBA, there is a good chance his defense will improve. He also packs some muscle in his short frame, and his build will only improve, which helps his ability to guard NBA level athletes. I personally think he can get to the level of Damian Lillard, JJ Barea or Kemba Walker defensively, which makes him very playable on that end of the floor. That does not seem unrealistic.Finally to Howard’s 80/50/2080th percentile outcome in the NBA: Damian Lillard/Kemba Walker level player on both sides of the ball50th percentile outcome in the NBA: Better scoring and shooting version of peak JJ Barea/DJ Augustin, making him an NBA starter on a worse team or an elite bench scorer on a contender20th percentile outcome in the NBA: Back of an NBA rotation player who plays more when hotThat currently puts him in the 14 to 18 range on my big board.

Markus Howard is the latest star NCAA guard in the long line of big time scorers and shot makers. However, he is not being discussed as much of an NBA prospect.