Since February 27, the „Cessation of Hostilities“ is in effect for Syria. Additionally, several short-lived „regimes of silence“ - local truces - have been agreed on, also and especially for Aleppo.

Still, the city and its surroundings is the scene of daily attacks by Russia and the Assad regime, which aim to defeat rebel forces and recapture all that was lost by Assad since 2011.

Kyle W. Orton is a Middle East-focussed research fellow at „The Henry Section Society“, a British think tank, dedicated to democracy, freedom and human rights.

BILD spoke to him about the ongoing air strikes on Aleppo and its suburbs, which showed signs of escalation in quantity and quality of the used ammunition over the last weeks.

Kyle W. Orton ist ein britischer Analyst bei der Denkfabrik Henry Jackson Society mit Schwerpunkt Naher Osten Foto: Kyle W. Orton

BILD: What effects do the newly used weapons cause, compared to other “traditional” air-dropped bombs?

Kyle W. Orton: “Incendiary and cluster weapons - as compared to ordinary airstrikes - are not nearly as militarily effective; they cause a lot less lethal casualties but they cause more severe injuries. Not unlike the regime's use of more deadly chemical weapons like Sarin, the intention is more to terrorise, to force the displacement of populations, rather than mass-casualties.“

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An incendiary ammunition attack some kilomters north of Aleppo Foto: Huraytan City Media

Houses and the flamable ammunition are burning on the ground Foto: Huraytan City Media

BILD: Why do you think, these weapons are used en masse around Aleppo during the last week? Also, who do you think is using such weapons?

Orton: “The increased use of cluster and incendiary weapons by the pro-Assad coalition in Aleppo in the last week coincides with an escalation of Russian air attacks in northern Syria that began on 29 May and statements from the Kremlin that indicate a further escalation is coming, especially in the wake of the 3 June offensive by the Jaysh al-Fatah insurgent coalition.

Between Russia and the Assad regime, determining who is conducting individual aerial attacks with banned munitions has proven very difficult: the use of incendiary weapons has occurred largely at night, for example, making the video footage difficult to discern.“

BILD: How do you think, the usage of these weapons effects the “Cessation of Hostilities” around Aleppo politically?

Orton: “Politically, the pro-Assad coalition's use of internationally banned weapons further undermines any credibility that the "cessation of hostilities" had left—and frankly, that proposed ceasefire has long gone in northern Syria. Even the reduction in hostilities is over now.

Russian cluster ammunition has been used widespread around Aleppo during the last weeks Foto: SMART News Agency

On June 9, a targeted cluster bomb strike hit the Syrian civil defence base in Kafr Halab, several kilometers west of Aleppo Foto: SMART News Agency

That the pro-regime forces feel free to use prohibited weapons while an internationally-agreed "ceasefire" is in place tells all parties everything they need to know about the efficacy of this process, something Jabhat al-Nusra - which had suffered a loss of influence over the insurgency when there was less violence - has taken advantage of, re-asserting itself over sections of the insurgency in Aleppo.“

BILD: Do you think, there is or has been something like a “silence regime” in and around Aleppo over the last weeks?

Orton: “The "regime of quiet" - this truce within a truce - was another tool Moscow has used to help the Assad regime crush the rebellion. After two weeks of unmerciful slaughter from the air in Aleppo, Moscow lessened the tempo of its airstrikes and politically turned the tables on the U.S., making the primary discussion about terrorism - separating the rebellion from Jabhat al-Nusra.

The U.S. largely accepted that framing of the problem, and Russia to some degree restrained its aerial bombardment of Aleppo as of 4 May, ostensibly to give the U.S. time to separate the rebels and al-Nusra, but Moscow escalated its air attacks beginning 29 May and that seems set to increase in the coming days.“