One of the most surprising tweets of the election came from Hillary on Halloween

Just before the election, on the evening of October 31, 2016, Slate broke a curious news story from Franklin Foer, “Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?” This story was also the basis of a series of unusual tweets from the Clinton campaign, including the one shown above.

I am a scientist, and as this story unfolded I felt some familiarity with what was transpiring. As with many articles reporting on scientific discoveries, this one involved a non-expert journalist attempting to communicate a story’s intricacies and interpretations to a larger, even-less-expert public. Key inferences hinged on technical aspects, in this case internet communications, and a hard-to-read plot. For some experts the evidence was strongly suggestive, while others were skeptical or simply refused to pass judgement. And for readers willing to jump down the rabbit hole, links could be found to the data that lay at the heart of the story (and jump I did, see Trump Server Files Parts I to V; full links below).

The Slate article was one of several late, late, late October surprises of that Halloween night, the other big one being David Corn’s Mother Jones piece “A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump”, that now seems as relevant as ever, if not prescient.

For the Slate story in particular, it only took a few hours before the early “November naysayers” began dismantling the story, calling into question the article, the data set and some of the computer scientists involved (both named and unnamed). Mainstream science stories, especially those reporting on-going, hotly-debated results, often receive similar treatment. In this case the thrill of a techno-nerd story emerging during the last week of the 2016 presidential campaign, and tweeted by the HRC campaign no less, added fuel to the fire.

Here’s a list of some of the headlines (MSM and blogs) that broke in response:

Several of these make valid claims but nearly all oversold their ability to rebut the original article. There’s a story within a story here, both intriguing and disheartening. But I’m going to leave analysis of the news of this period to real journalists, historians and national security experts.

Where are we today? This story remains in a state of suspended animation; it is still too hard for the average reporter or citizen-sleuth to definitively confirm or disprove. And yet as a story it continues to have legs, particularly because events of the past few months—the unconfirmed content of the Christopher Steele dossier, the timing and activities of affiliates of the Trump campaign (as described in recent statements) and others connected with Russia—all remain consistent with both the details and the broader picture presented in the original Slate article. No evidence has emerged that would cast further doubt.

What has also come to light this week is further indication that in October the FISA court issued a warrant related to possible contacts between the Trump Campaign and Russia illegal money transfers from two banks in Russia. This was first reported by Louise Mensch on Heat Street just before the election. The Trump-Alfa Bank server data appears to have been part of the evidence used in the request. We haven’t yet learned of the outcome of any related inquiry, but chatter suggests that we might soon.

Perhaps it is correct that following a detailed investigation nothing has been found, as DJT told the world in one of his tweets from this morning, March 4, 2017:

x Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism! Ã¢ÂÂ Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2017

But given what we know right now, many questions remain. And if we are also headed towards a congressional or special investigation and hearings, there are important details that need to be clarified and asked of those testifying under oath.

Last fall my “weekend hobby” was to look into the data from the “Trump Tower” server, and I’ve probably spent as much time as anyone trying to figure out what happened there. I’ve reported some of what I have found here on dkos. Based on what I learned I’ve also assembled a list of key points and questions (e.g. for congressional investigators).

If this story isn’t overtaken by events, I’ll post that list and other related items very soon.

Prelude to March Madness, folks.

Earlier posts:

The Trump Server Files: Part I

The Trump Server Files: Part II

The Trump Server Files - Part III: A Tale of Three “Glitches”

The Trump Server Files - Part IV: Alfa Bank Activity Changes and Spectrum Health Spikes

The Trump Server Files — Part V: Paul Manafort, Carter Page and the Server “Quiet Periods”

Parts II-IV get deep into the weeds, so read Part V for a higher-level summary.