The unfolding coronavirus pandemic is a story driven by numbers. But how reliable are the numbers we have? What can the data really tell us – and what are the major areas of uncertainty?

In this special episode, recorded on 1st April, Michael Blastland and Professor David Spiegelhalter help us separate the signal from the noise.

Why the absolute numbers of confirmed cases and deaths from Covid 19 are dodgy , but the rate at which those numbers change is still a useful indicator.

Why Norway vs Sweden is an unfolding natural experiment: neighbouring countries with broadly similar populations, but Norway has gone into strict lockdown and Sweden is being relatively relaxed.

There are usually around 600,000 deaths per year in the UK. When we look back, will Covid 19 have caused many excess deaths – or could the figures for 2020 end up looking similar to a bad flu season ?

? How can we think about our personal risk of dying from Covid 19? David sets out how getting Covid 19 multiplies your existing level of risk depending your age: it provides a “pulse” of heightened risk over a short period.

Full transcript available at:

https://riskytalk.libsyn.com/transcript-of-coronavirus-understanding-the-numbers

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Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.