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NEW DELHI: In what can spell good news for India’s farm sector and the economy overall, private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather on Wednesday predicted ‘normal’ monsoon for the country this year on the back of a statistically very high probability of good rains.In its first forecast, the agency ruled out the possibility of a drought year for India as a whole but warned of a "higher risk" of deficient rain in peninsular India and major portion of the north-eastern part through the season.It said, "The Monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September".The monsoon is considered as ‘normal’ if average rainfall is between 96-104% of the LPA. The average rainfall in ‘above normal’ monsoon is between 104-110% of LPA while anything beyond 110% of the LPA is considered as ‘excess’.Referring to probabilities in its 2018 forecast, Skymet Weather - which accurately predicted 2017 monsoon but not so well in 2015 — said there was a 55% chance of normal monsoon and that east India, especially Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal "are most likely to see normal monsoon rains throughout the season".The agency even spoke about 20% chance of ‘above normal’ and 5% chance of ‘excess’ rainfall during the June-September period -- this means there is quite a high probability for the monsoon to cross at least the ‘normal’ threshold this year.Though the agency could hit the bull’s eye last year, its forecast was not even close to the mark in 2015 and 2016. It had predicted ‘normal’ monsoon for 2015 but it turned out to be a drought year with reporting ‘deficient’ average rainfall.Anything less than 90% of the LPA is termed as a ‘deficient’ monsoon while 90-96% of the LPA is considered as ‘below normal’. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.The Skymet Weather’s forecast comes over a week ahead of the country’s national weather forecaster’s - India Meteorological Department (IMD) - plan to make its formal monsoon prediction for the year.Though the IMD’s prediction is still awaited, its recent Bulletin on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had ruled out possibility of El Nino at least till August and has given reasons for the weather agency to be hopeful for ‘normal’ monsoon. The El Nino phenomenon -- an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific -- is usually associated with weak monsoons.The IMD’s seasonal outlook for the temperature during March - May period had even noted a moderate La Nina — episodes representing periods of below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial pacific. The La Nina effect is opposite to El Nino and is related to normal or above normal rainfall.Referring to the three-monthly Nino index, the Skymet Weather said there was over 60% chance of neutral, 24% chance of La Nina and 14% chance of El Nino coming into existence. It said, "Pre-monsoon heat is considered as a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon."These factors have raised good hope for a normal monsoon this year - a positive signal for the farm sector. The good rainfall may help in increasing farm output that will, in turn, increase rural demand and thus ease pressure on overall economy.