Exclusive : On the eve of the long-awaited Finkel review, analysis shows Australia’s emissions rose sharply in the first quarter of 2017

Australia’s carbon emissions jumped at the start of 2017, the first time they have risen in the first few months of a year for more than a decade, according to projections produced exclusively for the Guardian.

Emissions in the first three months of the year normally drop compared with the previous quarter, driven by seasonal factors and holidays. But in something not seen in since 2005, emissions rose in the first quarter of 2017 compared with the last quarter of 2016 by 1.54m tonnes of CO2, according to the study by consultants NDEVR Environmental. The rise was driven by increases in emissions from electricity generation.

Government data on greenhouse gas emissions is released up to a full nine months after the end of a quarter. So NDEVR Environmental replicate the government data for the Guardian, releasing it about a month after the quarter finishes.

The unseasonal rise in emissions continues a trend of rising national emissions which began in 2014 and which the government’s own modelling suggests will continue for decades to come, based on current policies.

Matt Drum, the director of NDEVR Environmental, said the results showed a clear trend of rising emissions.

The projections showed the recent jump was almost entirely driven by an increase in emissions from the electricity sector, with emissions from other sectors remaining stable or dropping.



Two thirds of the increased emissions from the electricity sector was driven by New South Wales, with most of the remainder coming from Queensland, said Stephen Christos, a consultant at NDEVR.

Digging into the NSW figures further by examining data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo), Dylan McConnell from the University of Melbourne said the extra emissions appeared to be caused by unusually low generation from Snowy Hydro.

Hydro generation in Australia was at its lowest levels in at least six years at the start of 2017, meaning demand needed to be met by dirtier sources of electricity.

McConnell said it was possible hydro operators such as Snowy were “banking” their water supply ahead of shortfalls predicted by Aemo in the 2017-18 summer. In a rare move, Aemo has announced it wants to pay generators that are able to supply electricity at short notice to standby during that period, ready to meet the shortfall if needed.

Gordon Wymer, the chief financial officer at Snowy Hydro, told the Guardian it generated less electricity in that period because of a mixture of water licensing issues and weather forecasts.

“We could have generated more in calendar 2017, but we tend to be very conservative with our water management with respect to the downstream irrigators and other stakeholders,” Wymer said. “Just at the moment we are happiest with storages sitting on the high side – for this time of year, and with market conditions the way they are.”

McConnell said the extra electricity used in Queensland could have been caused by the LNG industry.

The latest projections show that Australia has emitted just over 23% of its carbon budget – the amount of carbon it can emit while doing its fair share to keep warming under 2C, according to the Climate Change Authority.

Based on the rate of emissions over the past 12 months, that budget will be blown by 2031.

On Friday, Australia’s chief scientist Alan Finkel will present his review of the national electricity market. It is expected to make a range of policy recommendations that will aim to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions.