Neither Clinton nor Obama can win before convention Bottom line: It'll take the convention to determine Democratic nominee

Neither Clinton nor Obama can win enough delegates before the convention

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., seen at a primary night rally, won the popular vote in the Democratic primary in Texas but may not be the ultimate winner in the state. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., seen at a primary night rally, won the popular vote in the Democratic primary in Texas but may not be the ultimate winner in the state. Photo: Kiichiro Sato, AP Photo: Kiichiro Sato, AP Image 1 of / 5 Caption Close Neither Clinton nor Obama can win before convention 1 / 5 Back to Gallery

Resting up after a bruising primary battle, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama left Texas in their rearview mirrors Wednesday and headed home to plan for three more months of political combat.

But even as the candidates tried to decipher the daunting math required to lock up the closest Democratic presidential race in a half-century, their surrogates squabbled over which candidate actually won the most delegates in Texas.

The Lone Star State's complicated delegate-selection methods gave both campaigns a plausible reason to claim victory. In final, unofficial results, Clinton won the popular vote, 51 percent to 48 percent. But Obama backers boasted that the Illinois senator had won a majority of the state's pledged delegates — a result of his ability to mobilize supporters in the evening caucuses, which account for about one-third of the delegates selected Tuesday.

"It could be our Texas version of 'Dewey Defeats Truman,' " said Waco Rep. Chet Edwards, an Obama supporter, referring to the infamous Chicago Tribune headline that misstated the 1948 election results. "After all the confetti and uncorked champagne bottles, it could turn out that Obama won Texas."

Projections released Wednesday afternoon by the Texas Democratic Party based on still-incomplete caucus returns indicated that Obama would receive 98 delegates elected Tuesday to Clinton's 95.

Clinton led Obama in delegates selected as a result of primary voting, 65 to 61, while Obama appears headed for a 37-to-30 edge among delegates selected through the caucuses.

Including elected officials and party leaders with automatic "superdelegate" status, the two candidates are dead even at 107 Texas delegates, with 14 superdelegates still uncommitted.

But whichever campaign ends up with Texas bragging rights, Clinton's narrow 12-delegate edge in Tuesday's contests in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont has done little to change the intricate delegate dynamics of 2008.

Bottom line: With just 600 delegates up for grabs and front-runner Obama 658 short of the 2,025 needed for victory, it is mathematically impossible for either candidate to clinch the nomination before the process is scheduled to end with Puerto Rico's June 7 caucuses.

Obama remains in the overall delegate lead, 1,567 to 1,462, according to Associated Press estimates.

With neither candidate able to wrap up the nomination during the primary season, Clinton and Obama must try to seal the deal by courting the 350 still-uncommitted superdelegates, including 14 from Texas. These party insiders get invitations to the Democratic National Convention in Denver based on their elected positions or leadership role in the party.

"The key to the nomination is the superdelegates," said University of Houston government professor Christine LeVeaux-Haley. "The superdelegates seemed to lean to Clinton before Super Tuesday. With her now proving that she is a viable candidate — again — the superdelegates who have been leaning toward Clinton will stick with her."

Going after superdelegates

To influence any undecided superdelegates, Clinton and Obama will try to build a sense of momentum over the next three months. Their goal is to be the candidate with the most elected delegates — something that is becoming increasingly difficult for Clinton to do. The former first lady would need to win more than 60 percent of the remaining primary election delegates to catch up with Obama.

"We are vigorously talking to the uncommitted automatic delegates," Clinton adviser Harold Ickes told reporters. "The Obama campaign is doing the same thing."

Clinton's aim in the next two months is to convince currently uncommitted superdelegates that she is the Democrat most likely to defeat Arizona Sen. John McCain in swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

But Obama, who has won far more states and total votes than Clinton, counters by citing polls indicating that he runs stronger than Clinton against McCain. He also tells superdelegates that it is their moral obligation to back the choice of most rank-and-file Democrats.

"I cannot imagine party insiders, behind closed doors, overturning the votes of millions of Democrats," said Edwards.

Florida, Michigan re-votes?

A potential wild card is the continuing battle inside the Democratic National Committee over the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan, two states whose convention votes have been taken away because they scheduled January primaries in violation of party rules.

But governors of both states are talking about arranging for a June re-vote if private funding can be arranged to cover the costs. For very different reasons, the idea unites Clinton and GOP leaders.

Republicans see these "do-overs" as an opportunity to drain Democratic resources and create additional tension between the two foes. Clinton's strategists eye an opportunity to erase Obama's edge.

"It could turn into the most expensive primary contest in the history of the world," said Harris County Democratic Chairman Gerald Birnberg.

In the meantime, Birnberg has some advice for the exhausted and edgy rivals: "Both of the candidates need to take about three or four days off and chill."

That's not likely to happen. Obama wants to regain the upper hand with wins in Wyoming on Saturday, where just 12 delegates are at stake, and Mississippi next Tuesday, when voters pick 33 more. With just 10 states left to weigh in, Obama hopes to avoid a catastrophic defeat and end the primary season in June with a significant lead in elected delegates.

Pennsylvania is key

Clinton is hoping for a split in the coming week's contests and then a resounding win April 22 in Pennsylvania, the last big contest currently on the primary calendar, with 158 delegates up for grabs.

It's a state that should be natural Clinton territory, with its large number of struggling manufacturing workers, high proportion of senior citizens and large number of blue-collar Catholic voters — all Clinton constituencies. The Democrat-only primary also excludes independent voters who have strongly supported Obama in other states.

And to those who think that Texas' involvement in the selection process is over, consider this: The Texas state Democratic convention falls on the same day as the Puerto Rico primary, so Texas could still come back into play as Clinton and Obama struggle to claim every single vote tied to the still-unsettled Tuesday caucuses.

richard.dunham@chron.com