Tories ‘needed 75 people to vote differently to get a working majority’ Theresa May and the Conservative Party could have had a working majority in the House of Commons if just 75 […]

Theresa May and the Conservative Party could have had a working majority in the House of Commons if just 75 members of the public had voted differently, according to a data analyst.

The Tories won 317 seats in the General Election but needed just five more for the majority, according to Owen Boswarva.

His calculations are based on a working majority of 322 – rather than 326 – as there are only 642 voting MPs (out of a total of 650) after taking into account Speaker John Bercow’s impartiality and the fact that Sinn Fein do not take up their seats in the Commons.

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11 constituencies were won by less than 100 votes each.

Handful of votes

Just a handful of voters in Kensington, Perth and North Perthshire, Dudley North, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Crewe and Nantwich – all seats with tiny majorities – would have needed to vote differently.

This is how Mr Boswarva’s numbers stack up:

Kensington Margin: 20 Votes needed: 11 voters to switch from Labour Perth and North Perthshire Margin: 21 Votes needed: 11 voters to switch from SNP Dudley North Margin: 22 Votes needed: 12 voters to switch from Labour Newcastle-under-Lyme Margin: 30 Votes needed: 16 voters to switch from Labour Crewe and Nantwich Margin: 48 Votes needed: 25 voters to switch from Labour

“I calculated the margins for each constituency by subtracting the votes for the runner-up candidate from the votes for the winning candidate, then summed the additional votes the Tories would have needed to win in the five constituencies where they came closest but lost,” Mr Boswarva told i.

But the Tories might have needed an even smaller number of people to vote differently to get a majority if Mr Boswarva took the three deputy speakers who do not vote into account.

“They haven’t been selected yet, but if as expected the deputy speakers are one Conservative MP and two Labour MPs that means the Tories would have needed only 50 voters to switch,” he said.

‘Close’ contests

“Realistically there was no way the parties or individual voters could have expected these contests to be so close. There was an unusually high number of close contests and recounts in the 2017 General Election: 11 constituencies were won by less than 100 votes each, compared with only three such contests in the 2015 election.”

Mr Boswarva said his findings show that a small number of voters and even individual votes can make a difference in elections.

“If people get the message that ‘every vote counts,’ this might encourage them to vote more in future, which is healthy for democracy. However it also highlights the peculiarity of the first-past-the-post electoral system and the disproportionate amount of influence that voters in marginal constituencies have over the outcome of the national election.

“This can be demoralising for voters in safe seats elsewhere, who are bound to feel neglected and disengaged from the electoral process.”

Hung Parliament

The General Election resulted in a Hung Parliament, meaning that no party can command a majority.

Consequently, the Tories are trying to broker a “confidence and supply” agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party on votes of no confidence and to pass their Budget.

Together the Tories and the DUP have 327 seats in the Commons.