It’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for: we’re finally unveiling our pick for the Vancouver Canucks’ top prospect! If you’ve been following along, it should be pretty obvious at this point who it’s going to be – I mean, everyone knows who the high end guys are here, so it’s just process of elimination, right? Right.

This guy is a natural goal scorer, and could be a contributor in the big club’s lineup sooner rather than later. He’s the sniper we’ve all been waiting for. You know who I’m talking about. Vancouver’s top prospect could be none other than..

Ludwig Blomstrand!

Okay, no, it’s not him. And there’s a special place in hell for whichever of you voted him number one in the Reader’s Poll.

It’s Brock Boeser dammit.

Qualifications

A quick review the criteria for consideration for the rankings:

The player must be 25 years or younger, and

The player must be eligible for the Calder Trophy next season.

As a result, players that are considered to be “graduated” to the NHL (Brendan Gaunce, Nikita Tryamkin, Jake Virtanen, Anton Rodin) are not eligible.

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Statistics

Origins and Projections

Brock Boeser was chosen by Jim Benning and the Canucks with the 23rd overall selection at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, and it’s been pretty much all sunshine and roses since then.

This has been covered in this space before, but I’ll delve quickly back into the history of Canucks Army’s relationship with Boeser. At the time of his selection, there were a multitude of CA-approved names still available, and we’d kind of forgotten about Boeser a little bit. While he was by no means a bad choice there at the time (and certainly not in retrospect), the Nation Network had him ranked 33rd, so we were a little surprised to hear his name called.

Some of the players chosen after Boeser that we had ranked ahead of him are already plying their trades in the NHL – Travis Konecny, Sebastian Aho, Anthony Beauvillier – while others are toiling in the AHL or elsewhere. While their professional head starts on the Canucks’ choice would traditionally be just cause for hand-wringing in the city of Vancouver, there is little reason at all to regret choosing the Minnesota-born sniper a year and a half ago.

Boeser debuted as the fourth ranked Canucks prospect in the fall of 2015, before heading into his freshman year at the University of North Dakota. Halfway through that season, he advanced to the number two spot, after blowing away all expectations that Canucks fans had of him in his first year of collegiate hockey. By the time the preseason rankings rolled around in 2016, Boeser had taken the number one spot, though narrowly so following the selection of Olli Juolevi at the 2016 draft. And now, he sits atop the midterm rankings, having put a bit more distance between him and the rest of the pack.

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Following his draft-year season with the Waterloo Blackhawks of the USHL, Boeser carried an expected success percentage of 25 percent. This is a pretty appropriate number for his draft position at 23rd overall, but it’s likely that the model was already underselling Boeser. Though the USHL wouldn’t be considered a “new” league anymore, it has only just recently become as reliable as the Canadian Junior leagues at producing NHLers (and in fact now produces more than the QMJHL). Because of historically low rates of success, prospects’ projections may be unduly diminished.

After his first season in the NCAA, in which he was showered in accolades and was the leading goal scorer and point-getter on a team that won the NCAA national championship, Boeser’s projections skyrocketed. 75 percent of players with a similar statistical profile to that season have played 200 or more games, including Jonathan Toews and Thomas Vanek.

That brings us to this season, in which Boeser has admittedly had his ups and downs. He got off to a very hot start, and has since been hot and cold at various points while dealing with a wrist injury that required surgery over the holidays.

From a projection standpoint, Boeser’s streakiness has left him subject to large swings in projected success percentage. Just a couple of weeks ago, he was carrying a 100% cohort success percentage – that’s what can happen with small samples of games – with just one point in his last four outings, his points per game has dipped from 1.40 to 1.16, bringing his green bubble back down and within range of a bunch of players that couldn’t stick around in the NHL (notice all the blue dots above him, which used to be his only matches).

His total number of matches also ballooned from eight to 46, 22 of which were successful. Those successful matches broke down like this:

Even with a dipped success percentage, Boeser is still in good company. His successful matches still averaged 53 era adjusted points per 82 games, which is easily a top six production rate. Additionally, as quick as his point rate dropped, it could shoot back up again with a couple of good weekends.

To at least some extent, I’m sure that Boeser’s wrist problems can be blamed for his hot and cold performances this season. Boeser went goalless for five games from November 5th to 19th, a lengthier drought than any other in his collegiate career to date. He was spotted during this period wearing a wrist brace underneath his glove – the first public clue that something was ailing him.

After taking several games off to rest, he underwent surgery in mid-December, which also meant bowing out of the World Junior Championship, where he likely would have been a leader for the Americans, who went on to win a gold medal anyways.

Upon his return, he put up three goals and five points in two games, as North Dakota tore apart the University of Nebraska-Omaha, fueling speculation that he was all fixed up. In four games since however, he has just one point, fueling mostly confusion. We can only hope that he eventually makes a complete recovery and this won’t be something that follows him into the future.

Scouting Report

A dynamic offensive winger and natural goal scorer. Has great instincts and is able to quickly get into position for premium scoring chances; possesses an accurate release on his shot which he can get off in the blink of an eye. He always knows where his linemates are, and is a great passer; that being said, his individual puck possession play is incredible and sets him apart as an offensive player. He will need to work on defensive zone coverage and a slew of small details such as board battles, but Brock Boeser has a ton of elite-level scoring potential due to the way he can read, make, and finish plays. (Curtis Joe, EP 2014)

When healthy, Brock Boeser has the capability to dominate NCAA hockey games. With an NHL ready shot, exceptional vision and puck handling and an insatiable determination and battle level, Boeser is more than collegiate defences are capable of handling.

He scores plenty of his goals from distance, but has tallied them in a variety of other ways, including wraparounds, deflections and net front battles. He is a primary puck carrier of whatever line he’s playing on and is adept at deciding when it is an ideal time to shoot and when it’s better to distribute to a teammate.

One area that Boeser needs to work on is his skating. Though it is often cited as a limitation, I would suggest that it just isn’t a strength, rather being an outright weakness. Even in a season and a half of college hockey, his progress in this area is already noticeable.

Whether or not Boeser can return his production to the rates that we saw last year and earlier this year, it shouldn’t make much of a difference in terms of where he plays next season. At this point, the expectation across the board is that the Canucks will look to sign Boeser following this season and bring him into the fold in 2017-18.

While some have already penciled him into a top six role with the Canucks next season, either with the Sedins or with Horvat and Baertschi, I’d pump the brakes on those ideas, and let Boeser grow into that role, rather than expect it out of him right off the hop. Last year, Winnipeg prospect Kyle Connor destroyed the NCAA as a freshman, putting up a ridiculous 71 points in 38 games. This season, expected to step into a productive role with the Jets, Connor struggled out of the gate and was sent to the American league, where he has since put up just 11 points in 20 games.

Boeser will be a year older than Connor was when he hits the big leagues next year, but that shouldn’t stop you from tempering your optimism just a tad. I’m as big a Boeser fan as the next guy, and I see a future first line sniper in him, but time is always an important factor in the growth of prospects.

Still, on the balance of probabilities, we expect Boeser to be a contributor for the Canucks in relatively short order. His shot, hockey sense and determination are such that he’s unlikely to be denied a solid career. In a pool of prospects where he is really the only forward with real dynamic scoring ability, it’s not hard to see why he sits atop the pyramid as the number one prospect in the organization.

As with any article about Brock Boeser, it’d be hard to leave you without a reminder of just how smooth and silky his hands are. While you’re waiting for him to make his first appearance with the Canucks, just keep thinking of this goal and you’ll be so overwhelmed with endorphins that all your problems will melt away. Enjoy.





