by Scott Kacsmar

The plan this week was to dig into the numbers on the most common third-down passing situations, but Sam Bradford's slow start on Sunday night caught my attention. He had a few minus-ALEX plays early in the game on third down that kept coming up short of the sticks. So what happens when we take our data for 2006-2014 and look at passes thrown just short of the sticks (minus-1 ALEX) compared to those thrown exactly at the sticks (0 ALEX)?

The results were pretty interesting. The following graph shows the completion percentage and conversion rate for each type of throw ("Short" and "Stick") at each third-down distance up to 16 yards or more. There were 3,902 Stick throws and 2,400 Short throws. Note that the Stick throw rates (red and green) are not 100 percent correlated because of a small number of plays where a receiver caught the ball at the sticks but still failed to pick up the first down -- usually lost fumbles, plus a handful of plays where a receiver lost the first down by running backwards after the catch. In fact, those things have happened 50 times. Demaryius Thomas did this twice last year on third-and-long. Roddy White is the only other receiver with two such plays.

The conversion rate is higher on Stick throws at every third-down distance, and often by more than double-digit percentage points. The strategies are at their closest with 1-2 yards to go when defenses are expecting a run, so you can often catch them by surprise. Once you get to third-and-3, the Short throw never converts more than 47 percent of the time, while the Stick throws convert at least 44.5 percent at every distance from 1 to 12 yards. Once you get past the 5-yard legal contact zone, there is a noticeable drop in conversion rate for both strategies, but it is a larger drop on the Short throws, especially starting at third-and-8.

The completion rates are usually about 10 percentage points higher on the Short throws, since the defense tends to keep the play in front of them -- "tackle the catch," as Dick LeBeau would teach. NFL defenses are actually not too bad at making the immediate tackle a yard short of the sticks. On a money situation like third-and-10, the Short completion rate soars back up to 70.3 percent, but only 36.1 percent of those throws are converted for a first down. Compare that to the Stick throws: the completion percentage drops to a lower 44.9 percent completion rate, but with 44.5 percent conversions. Offenses completing a 9-yard throw on third-and-10 have converted 51.4 percent of the time since 2006 (57-of-111), so it is about a 50/50 proposition if you go that route.

What about average gains? This next graph compares the yards per attempt (YPA) of each passing strategy. It is true that you could usually get more YAC on the Short throws, but the difference is very marginal in the range of 5 to 9 yards to go. On third down, conversion rate usually trumps everything else, but not in every situation.

Finally, for the risk averse, what about interceptions? This chart looks at interception rates. The Short throw usually is intercepted less often, though we see some odd splits like a rate twice as high as the Stick throw on third-and-3, which is universally a passing down in this game. The interception rate on third-and-9 is nearly three times higher on Short throws, though this speaks to the small sample sizes (average 217 Short throws for the 1- to 10-yard range) and the general flukiness of interceptions.

If you really want the conversion, no matter what the distance to gain is, on average you are better off throwing to the sticks than you are throwing 1 yard short. Yes, sometimes the best option is to get the ball to a wide-open guy as soon as possible even if he's short of the sticks, but on average you want to avoid the negative ALEX plays. It is one of the most frustrating things in the NFL to watch a team complete a third-down pass a yard short of the sticks, but we see it all the time. Sometimes the quarterback makes a bad throw, and sometimes the receiver just does not run his route to the proper depth.

We have been spending a lot of time on the quarterbacks, but receiver data for ALEX will be coming.

For those new to this metric, it is called Air Less Expected, or ALEX for short. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, that would be minus-20 ALEX. The best application of ALEX is to look at third and fourth downs when it's really crucial to get 100 percent of the needed yards to extend the drive. Here is where we review the week's most conservative and aggressive plays by ALEX on third and fourth downs.

Week 9's Most Conservative Plays

The Lowest ALEX

Teams: Buffalo vs. Miami

Situation: Third-and-23 at own 16, leading 19-14 in third quarter with 8:38 left

Play: Tyrod Taylor to LeSean McCoy for 14 yards

Air yards: minus-4

ALEX: minus-27

Miami tightened things up a bit at this point. Tyrod Taylor was sacked on first down, set up a terrible screen that lost 7 yards on second down, then threw another screen here to McCoy for a 14-yard failed completion. Taylor was 11-of-12 passing on the day, but had three failed completions and one incompletion on the four targets that did not go to Sammy Watkins.

A Notable Failure of the Week

Teams: Denver at Indianapolis

Situation: Third-and-14 at opponent 32, trailing 24-17 in fourth quarter with 11:04 left

Play: Peyton Manning to Demaryius Thomas for 17 yards (first down)

Air yards: 2

ALEX: minus-12

The Indianapolis defense did it again. Danny Amendola followed his blockers on a bubble screen (minus-20 ALEX) earlier this season to beat them, and Thomas got them here in another big spot. This looked more like 2013 Denver in the screen game than what we've seen since, but the key to the play was Colt Anderson, playing for an injured Mike Adams, unable to make the tackle near the catch point. Thomas had a quick, easy path to 17 yards on a drive that ended with a game-tying touchdown.

Week 9's Most Aggressive Plays

The Highest ALEX

Teams: St. Louis at Minnesota

Situation: Third-and-5 at own 39, trailing 10-0 in first quarter with 2:37 left

Play: Nick Foles to Kenny Britt for 55 yards (first down)

Air yards: 51

ALEX: plus-46

Nick Foles did not do much on Sunday, but he threw a nice ball here. The Rams tried this play on the first play of the game, but Foles ended up scrambling to throw a checkdown. This time he went deep and Britt beat Terence Newman down the middle of the field.

This is now the highest ALEX completion on third or fourth down in 2015.

A Notable Success of the Week

Teams: Buffalo vs. Miami

Situation: Third-and-14 at opponent 44, leading 19-14 in third quarter with 2:29 left

Play: Tyrod Taylor to Sammy Watkins for 44 yards (touchdown)

Air yards: 44

ALEX: plus-30

To Taylor's credit, those targets to Watkins were very productive on Sunday. He throws a pretty deep ball and Watkins was on the receiving end in the end zone for a touchdown from which Miami never recovered. In trying to keep up with Watkins, Brent Grimes fell down at the end of the play, a sight that has just been all too common for Miami fans.

2015 ALEX Rankings Through Week 9

The following table shows where each qualified quarterback (minimum 25 passes) ranks in ALEX on third down only. There are also rankings for DYAR, average need yards (ranked from highest to lowest), and conversion rate.

Note: these numbers are subject to change at season's end. The data on 2006-2014 is the same as what we use for stats like receiving plus-minus and YAC+, which excludes passes that are thrown away, batted at the line or when the quarterback was hit in motion. The 2015 data currently includes all passes, but game charting will filter out those passes that were not truly aimed or intentional.

Rk Quarterback Team ALEX DYAR Rk Passes Avg. Need Rk CONV% Rk 1 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7.7 299 7 48 7.0 30 50.0% 5 2 Carson Palmer ARI 5.6 416 2 62 6.4 34 51.6% 4 3 Johnny Manziel CLE 4.0 110 23 27 8.1 9 40.7% 18 4 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 3.9 227 13 71 7.1 27 45.1% 11 5 Blake Bortles JAC 3.5 158 16 77 7.6 20 39.0% 22 6 Russell Wilson SEA 3.0 150 17 62 6.2 35 41.9% 17 7 Andy Dalton CIN 2.8 323 5 62 8.0 11 51.6% 3 8 Cam Newton CAR 2.7 107 24 68 7.9 13 33.8% 30 9 Andrew Luck IND 2.6 258 11 69 7.6 21 42.0% 16 10 Aaron Rodgers GB 2.3 166 15 58 7.7 17 36.2% 24 11 Tyrod Taylor BUF 2.3 144 19 43 8.5 3 44.2% 13 12 Jay Cutler CHI 2.1 288 8 59 6.7 32 49.2% 6 13 Joe Flacco BAL 1.9 -75 30 79 7.0 28 34.2% 29 14 Brian Hoyer HOU 1.9 210 14 61 8.0 12 42.6% 15 15 Matt Ryan ATL 1.5 260 10 95 6.6 33 46.3% 9 16 Josh McCown CLE 1.4 570 1 70 7.2 25 54.3% 1 17 Drew Brees NO 1.2 357 4 97 7.8 14 47.4% 7 Rk Quarterback Team ALEX DYAR Rk Passes Avg. Need Rk CONV% Rk 18 Nick Foles STL 1.0 -177 35 83 8.4 6 24.1% 35 19 Kirk Cousins WAS 0.8 317 6 93 7.2 23 47.3% 8 20 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 0.8 149 18 72 7.8 16 36.1% 25 21 Derek Carr OAK 0.8 240 12 80 7.4 22 45.0% 12 22 Peyton Manning DEN 0.8 -97 33 91 8.1 8 35.2% 27 23 Colin Kaepernick SF 0.7 86 26 74 7.7 18 33.8% 31 24 Jameis Winston TB 0.5 13 29 80 8.4 5 40.0% 20 25 Philip Rivers SD 0.5 111 20 82 7.7 19 43.9% 14 26 Marcus Mariota TEN 0.3 111 22 52 7.8 15 40.4% 19 27 Ryan Mallett HOU 0.2 -78 31 42 7.2 24 35.7% 26 28 Tom Brady NE 0.2 357 3 68 7.2 26 52.9% 2 29 Matt Cassel DAL 0.1 101 25 28 7.0 29 39.3% 21 30 Matthew Stafford DET -0.1 -176 34 74 8.1 7 35.1% 28 31 Eli Manning NYG -0.2 262 9 90 6.9 31 45.6% 10 32 Ryan Tannehill MIA -0.3 44 28 69 8.6 2 29.0% 33 33 Sam Bradford PHI -0.6 -78 32 82 8.4 4 24.4% 34 34 Brandon Weeden DAL -2.4 69 27 25 8.0 10 32.0% 32 35 Alex Smith KC -3.8 111 21 69 8.8 1 36.2% 23

As requested, here is a look at the third-down splits by distance: short (1 to 3 yards), medium (4 to 7 yards) and long (8-plus yards). I added some color to give a bit of an index for where a player is well above average (darker green) versus below average (darker red). Players like Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor have been more aggressive in the longer situations this season while Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr are more likely to be conservative there. Then you have Alex Smith, off playing his own sport again. Brandon Weeden hopefully won't be included in this much longer.