The Assad regime has begun an offensive to re-take southern Syria

The offensive also entangles Israeli and Iranian military interests, meaning their cold war will heat up

Rebels will also likely be stuck in the south

This latest offensive may turn into an Eastern Ghouta-style siege

By Ty Joplin

Convoys of Syrian regime trucks and armed personnel carriers were seen driving towards the frontlines to the south. There are now reported clashes between rebels and pro-government troops a few miles east of Quneitra.

The Assad regime has now officially begun its offensive to retake the rest of southern Syria from rebels.

Pro-regime troops, opposition groups and international actors have been preparing for the offensive for months, which could all but guarantee that this new offensive becomes sustained and multifaceted conflict.

Part drawn-out humanitarian disaster and part international proxy battle between Israel and Iran, the ingredients are there for the Syrian crisis to continue morphing and expanding as external interests cement themselves into the country.

A New Offensive in Southern Syria

A rebel fighter stands in the rubble of buildings in Deraa (AFP/FILE)

Since the signing of the so-called ‘de-escalation’ agreements in the summer of 2017, the southern front in Syria has remained relatively quiet, but subtle shifts have been underway.

Much of the armed factions in southern Syria are loosely organized under the umbrella of the Southern Front, which was reportedly funded by Jordan, the U.S. and France among others. However, in recent months, international powers have decreased military and non-military funding to armed groups in southern Syria.

Reports of clashes between regime troops and rebels in Umm Batinah, which is just a few miles east of Quneitra, foreshadow a much larger and expansive ground/air offensive by the regime that will likely encompass much of southern Syria.

Assad is also reportedly sending his well-equipped Tiger Forces to the south in a move that signals the significance of the offensive in the eyes of the regime. The Tiger Forces are an elite unit of troops who specialize in blitzkrieg-style offensives.

In Assad’s ongoing mission to reunify Syrian territory under his rule, the southern regions of Quneitra, Suwayda and Deraa have been some of the most difficult; their opposition forces are relatively well-organized and well-supplied.

At one point in the war, they were seen as the most reliable opposition forces; tangible representatives of a fabled ‘moderate opposition’ that slowly fell apart as the conflict expanded and began to include hardline Islamist groups and ethno-nationalist factions.

The Iran/Israel Cold War Heats Up

An explosion rocks the southern city of Deraa (AFP/FILE)

The international significance of the new offensives lies in the presence and influence of Iran and Israel in the south of Syria. Both countries have, for years, sought to establish and expand their reach into the south in a bid to both capture regional power and build up a military organization against the other via Syria as a proxy.

Both countries have been successful.

A map of Israel’s ‘New Buffer Zone’ which covers Quneitra and Deraa (Rami Khoury/Al Bawaba)

Israel has steadily supplied groups inside the Golan Heights and in Quneitra and Deraa while working to solidify civil society and agricultural infrastructure. Iran has sent funds to a spectrum of armed groups in the south in addition to establishing logistical and intelligence centers throughout the region, but mostly near Damascus. For their part, Hezbollah maintains a steady military presence in southern Syria, and some initial reports have even indicated that Hezbollah fighters died in the clashes in and around Umm Batinah.

Despite negotiations between Israel and Iran via Russia to pull out Iran from southern Syria, its interests are inextricably meshed into the regime and military infrastructure of the region. Though some Iranian advisors may well have withdrawn from the region after Israeli jets shelled them, the Iranian state doubtless is continuing its supply to specific factions.

Both Iran and Israel have reason to watch the regime offensive closely, as whatever happens on the battlefields deeply affects their ability to maintain their respective spheres of influence.

In simple terms, all these moving pieces mean one thing: the Iran/Israel cold war will heat up. Iranian-backed and Israeli-backed groups will likely meet each other on the battlefield. The results of such conflicts will partially determine which country can keep their power in the region.

Israel has long-held much of the Golan Heights, and has incorporated several opposition groups, such as the Knights of Golan, to function essentially as Israeli border police, ensuring that no Iranian force gets too close. But Israeli officials have long expressed a desire to cement their influence into Deraa, which they have reportedly done.

Moreover, because of the presence of outside funding to both sides, the southern front offensive will likely be drawn out, as both sides can rely on a steady stream of support.

No Escape

A refugee from Eastern Ghouta holds water and an infant (AFP/FILE)

The offensive will likely be an outright humanitarian disaster. The rebels are stuck there, and the people are trapped with a dwindling supply of food and support.

The Western-backed rebel groups in the south are much more unlikely to accept a deal to withdraw from the south and be relocated elsewhere, such as Idlib. They have little ties to the rest of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is backed by Turkey in other parts of the country. On top of that, their current support is likely tied to their strategic location in the south, meaning if they upend themselves out of the region, they will lose their backing.

So they will likely stay in the south, all but ensuring the battles will go to the bitter end.

For the people of southern Syria, they face a dire crisis.

A man carries children after a barrel bombing attack on rebel-held territory (AFP/FILE)

USAID-led support has given them much-needed wheat and flour to use to make bread, but that support is scheduled to end in March 2019. U.S. aid has been steadily decreasing about 15 to 20 percent per month since April according to Abu Hadi a-Rabdawi, who is the head of Daraa’s opposition-run Grain Institution.

Locally grown food has also suffered from the effects of war and climate. Heavy storms over the winter and spring months destroyed much of Deraa’s harvest, with some farmers estimating that 95 percent of their crop was washed away.

Humanitarian groups working in the south also fear another Eastern Ghouta-style besiegement that would prevent shipments of food, water and medical aid into the region as the offensive gets underway.

One aid worker who spoke to Al Bawaba on the condition of anonymity expressed deep fear that if Assad can control the borders of the southern region, he will choke off the people of Deraa and Quinetra as he did with the hundreds of thousands that were trapped inside Eastern Ghouta. There, aid trucks were forced to wait outside the embattled neighborhoods for hours and had much of their aid confiscated.

Even when they were allowed in, the regime shelled their routes, forcing them to turn back and leave without every distributing aid.

Well over a million civilians live in southern Syria, including over 300,000 refugees from other parts of the country.

They will be forced to bear the consequences of the new phase of the Syrian war, which has mutated nearly beyond the point of recognition.