Marvin Bagley Makes Duke a Juggernaut

Every hoophead knows the name Marvin Bagley. He may not be a household name yet, but he took the first step in becoming one by reclassifying and committing to play for Duke.

The 6’11” power forward was originally set to play college ball in 2018-19 because he transferred high schools and was ineligible to play for a year. However, he was approved to switch back to what would have been his original class and play this season. And wouldn’t you know it, he chose Duke.

This decision obviously has two big implications. His addition to the 2018 NBA draft class makes an already stacked group even better. I won’t go into details about high school players that nobody even knows about yet, but it sounds like there are several prettay, prettay good players.

The second is that Duke is now expected to be good…really good. At Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, Duke opened at 10/1 in April along with Kentucky and Louisville. On July 31st, Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State were the co-favorites at 8/1. With Bagley set to be a Blue Devil, Duke is now 3/1! This translates into a 14% increase in implied probability.

Team October 30

(Westgate) August 15

(Westgate) July 31

(Westgate) April 2

(Westgate) DUKE Blue Devils 3/1 3/1 8/1 10/1 MICHIGAN ST Spartans 4/1 10/1 8/1 20/1 KENTUCKY Wildcats 7/1 8/1 8/1 10/1 ARIZONA Wildcats 10/1 12/1 10/1 15/1 KANSAS Jayhawks 12/1 12/1 10/1 12/1 USC Trojans 20/1 30/1 20/1 60/1 VILLANOVA Wildcats 20/1 30/1 25/1 12/1 FLORIDA Gators 20/1 30/1 30/1 20/1 WICHITA ST Shockers 25/1 30/1 20/1 20/1 NORTH CAROLINA Tar Heels 25/1 30/1 25/1 12/1 LOUISVILLE Cardinals 40/1 15/1 12/1 10/1 TEXAS Longhorns 40/1 30/1 25/1 300/1 MISSOURI Tigers 40/1 40/1 40/1 300/1 PURDUE Boilermakers 40/1 100/1 80/1 60/1 TEXAS A&M Aggies 40/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 OREGON Ducks 50/1 50/1 50/1 60/1 ALABAMA Crimson Tide 50/1 50/1 50/1 80/1 UCLA Bruins 60/1 25/1 40/1 25/1 WEST VIRGINIA Mountaineers 60/1 60/1 50/1 25/1 XAVIER Musketeers 60/1 60/1 60/1 80/1 NOTRE DAME Fighting Irish 60/1 60/1 60/1 80/1 ST MARY'S Gaels 60/1 100/1 80/1 40/1 MINNESOTA Golden Gophers 60/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 MICHIGAN Wolverines 80/1 50/1 40/1 20/1 GONZAGA Bulldogs 80/1 60/1 40/1 12/1 MIAMI FL Hurricanes 80/1 60/1 60/1 50/1 SETON HALL Pirates 80/1 100/1 80/1 60/1 NORTHWESTERN Wildcats 80/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 TCU Horned Frogs 80/1 100/1 100/1 300/1 VIRGINIA Cavaliers 100/1 60/1 60/1 30/1 BAYLOR Bears 100/1 80/1 60/1 50/1 WISCONSIN Badgers 100/1 80/1 80/1 80/1 CINCINNATI Bearcats 100/1 100/1 100/1 80/1 MARYLAND Terrapins 100/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 PROVIDENCE Friars 100/1 200/1 200/1 200/1 BUTLER Bulldogs 200/1 60/1 40/1 25/1 IOWA ST Cyclones 200/1 80/1 80/1 80/1 CREIGHTON Bluejays 200/1 100/1 100/1 80/1 VANDERBILT Commodores 200/1 100/1 100/1 80/1 UCONN Huskies 200/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 SYRACUSE Orange 200/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 ARKANSAS Razorbacks 200/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 NEVADA Wolfpack 200/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 AUBURN Tigers 200/1 100/1 300/1 300/1 VIRGINIA TECH Hokies 200/1 200/1 100/1 100/1 RHODE ISLAND Rams 200/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 OKLAHOMA Sooners 300/1 80/1 80/1 40/1 FLORIDA ST Seminoles 300/1 100/1 80/1 40/1 INDIANA Hoosiers 300/1 100/1 100/1 20/1 SMU Mustangs 300/1 100/1 100/1 80/1 ILLINOIS Fighting Illini 300/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 SOUTH CAROLINA Gamecocks 300/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 UTAH Utes 300/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 UNLV Runnin' Rebels 300/1 100/1 100/1 1000/1 VCU Rams 300/1 200/1 100/1 100/1 MARQUETTE Golden Eagles 300/1 200/1 100/1 100/1 SAN DIEGO ST Aztecs 300/1 200/1 200/1 100/1 GEORGIA Bulldogs 300/1 300/1 200/1 200/1 WAKE FOREST Demon Deacons 300/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 IOWA Hawkeyes 300/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 PENN ST Nittany Lions 300/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 BYU Cougars 300/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 ARIZONA ST Sun Devils 300/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 STANFORD Cardinal 300/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 TEXAS TECH Red Raiders 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 DAYTON Flyers 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 CLEMSON Tigers 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 ST JOHN'S Red Storm 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 OHIO ST Buckeyes 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 NEBRASKA Cornhuskers 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 OLE MISS Rebels 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 TENNESSEE Volunteers 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 MISSISSIPPI ST Bulldogs 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 KANSAS ST Wildcats 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 OKLAHOMA ST Cowboys 500/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 HOUSTON Cougars 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 CENTRAL FLORIDA Golden Knights 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 DAVIDSON Wildcats 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 GEORGIA TECH Yellow Jackets 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 NC STATE Wolfpack 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 MIDDLE TENN ST Blue Raiders 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 COLORADO ST Rams 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 BOISE ST Broncos 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 FRESNO ST Bulldogs 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 OREGON ST Beavers 500/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 ST BONAVENTURE Bonnies 500/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 CHARLESTON Cougars 500/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 OAKLAND Golden Grizzlies 500/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 BELMONT Bruins 500/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 BUFFALO Bulls 500/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 CALIFORNIA Golden Bears 1000/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 COLORADO Buffaloes 1000/1 300/1 300/1 300/1 ILLINOIS ST Redbirds 1000/1 500/1 300/1 300/1 MEMPHIS Tigers 1000/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 RICHMOND Spiders 1000/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 La Salle EXPLORERS 1000/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 LSU Tigers 1000/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 GEORGETOWN Hoyas 1000/1 200/1 200/1 200/1 WYOMING Cowboys 1000/1 1000/1 500/1 500/1 VERMONT Catamounts 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 ST LOUIS Billikens 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 OLD DOMINION Monarchs 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 PRINCETON Tigers 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 HARVARD Crimson 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 YALE Bulldogs 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 TEXAS ARLINGTON Mavericks 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 GEORGIA ST Panthers 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 VALPARAISO Crusaders 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 NORTHERN IOWA Panthers 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 NEW MEXICO ST Aggies 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 GRAND CANYON Antelopes 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 FLORIDA GULF COAST Eagles 1000/1 2000/1 2000/1 2000/1 LOUISIANA TECH Bulldogs 1000/1 2000/1 2000/1 2000/1 GEORGE WASHINGTON Colonials 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 GEORGE MASON Patriots 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 NC WILMINGTON Seahawks 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 PITTSBURGH Panthers 2000/1 500/1 500/1 500/1 ARKANSAS ST Red Wolves 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 AKRON Zips 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 OHIO Bobcats 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 NEW MEXICO Lobos 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 UTAH ST Aggies 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 WASHINGTON ST Cougars 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 EAST TENNESSEE ST Buccaneers 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 CHATTANOOGA Mocs 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 BOSTON COLLEGE Eagles 2000/1 1000/1 1000/1 1000/1 NC CENTRAL Eagles 2000/1 3000/1 3000/1 2000/1 LA LAFAYETTE Ragin' Cajuns 2000/1 3000/1 3000/1 2000/1 WESTERN KENTUCKY Hilltoppers 2000/1 3000/1 3000/1 1000/1 MONMOUTH Hawks 3000/1 2000/1 2000/1 2000/1 TROY Trojans 3000/1 2000/1 2000/1 2000/1 PENNSYLVANIA Quakers 3000/1 3000/1 3000/1 2000/1 BUCKNELL Bison 3000/1 3000/1 3000/1 2000/1 WASHINGTON Huskies 3000/1 3000/1 3000/1 2000/1 UTEP Miners 3000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 MT ST MARYS Mountaineers 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 SAN FRANCISCO Dons 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 WRIGHT ST Raiders 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 JACKSONVILLE ST Gamecocks 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 NC GREENSBORO Spartans 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 SOUTH DAKOTA Coyotes 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 NORTH DAKOTA ST Bison 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 IPFW Mastodons 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 SOUTH DAKOTA ST Jackrabbits 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 IUPUI Jaguars 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 CS BAKERSFIELD Roadrunners 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 TEXAS ST Bobcats 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 COASTAL CAROLINA Chanticleers 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 ALBANY Great Danes 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 5000/1 FIELD ( All Others ) 300/1 300/1 300/1 300/1

Before the season started last year, Duke was +350 and if you forgot, they had pretty high expectations. In fact, they were 20/1 to have an undefeated regular season and 40/1 to be an undefeated national champion — a feat that hasn’t occurred since the 1976 Hoosiers went 32-0. There aren’t any undefeated props yet for this season, but I would imagine there will be.

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