Image Source: AP

Before we lay out why this is even a question, we’ll answer it with a “probably not”. Canada is not a bad team. The WGF Rankings have Canada at #12 among CONCACAF teams that are eligible for the World Cup. The October 2014 FIFA Rankings will have Canada at #16 in CONCACAF. It is currently uncertain which version of the FIFA Rankings CONCACAF will decide to use for the 2018 World Cup Qualifying Draw, but it is a certainty that Canada will not be part of the group of teams that advance directly to the Semifinal round of qualifying. Assuming that the format of CONCACAF qualifying does not change, the Top 6 ranked teams will head directly to the semifinal round.

Situation

The problem for Canada is that they are one of 3 teams (including Mexico and the USA), who never play in “Continental Qualifiers”. Because they automatically get into the Gold Cup, they never have the opportunity to pick up more points for FIFA Rankings purposes. Continental Qualifiers carry an extra multiplier of 2.5. This means that all else equal, matches are worth 2.5 times as much as a friendly, which Canada is resigned to. St. Vincent and the Grenadines just defeated Curacao in qualifying and were awarded 331.5 points. Had Canada defeated Curacao in a match just days later, it would only be worth 132.6 points, because it would be a friendly match.

Mexico and the USA obviously are two of the strongest teams in CONCACAF. Despite not playing in Continental Qualifiers, they did extremely well at the 2013 Gold Cup, and had the opportunity to pick up a massive amount of points at the World Cup. As a result, they are never in any danger of dropping in the rankings. Since Canada did not qualify for the World Cup, they have virtually no chance to make up points that literally every other CONCACAF nation has the opportunity to receive.

Over the past 2 calendar years, Canada has played a total of 2 matches that were not friendlies. Even teams like the British Virgin Islands and Anguilla have opportunities to pick up more points in Gold Cup qualifiers. While Canada sits at #16 in the October Rankings, they are all the way down at #21 of 35 teams in points obtained in the last two yearly cycles. That’s worse than virtually every decent CONCACAF team, despite the fact that Canada is certainly better than a number of them.

CONCACAF is also not transparent when it comes to the Gold Cup, and instead of a natural draw, for those 2 non-friendlies, Canada was shoved into matches against Mexico and Panama. They lost to Mexico and drew Panama. Not sure what more they’re supposed to do there.

Results

Canada is caught in a vicious cycle that it is going to take many, many years to get out of. They are falling in the FIFA Rankings as a result of not playing Continental Qualifiers or in the World Cup like every single other CONCACAF team. As a result, they will not have the opportunity to head straight to the Semifinal Round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying.

As a result of not heading to the Semifinal Round, they will be sent into a group with the top CONCACAF teams should they advance through previous rounds. By facing a more difficult group, the probability of success goes down. By not doing well, they will fall in the FIFA Rankings. And then, by not participating in subsequent Continental Qualifiers, they will not have an opportunity to rise the ranks for future World Cup Qualifying. They’re going to end up in the exact same position cycle after cycle.

It’s not certain that Canada would be able to qualify for the World Cup given the rising Central American and Caribbean nations, but they would at least have a better shot. That’s not to say that Canada is already out for World Cup 2018, but it is going to be a very difficult challenge.

How To Fix It

Unfortunately, there is no quick fix for this problem. And it is certainly too late for the 2018 World Cup Qualifying cycle. But there are a couple suggestions long term that may be helpful for 2022 World Cup Qualifying. While 8 years is a long way away, the things that will affect the qualifying campaign occur much sooner.

The 2022 World Cup Qualifying draw should be held sometime around July 2019. We will also make the assumption that the March 2019 rankings will be used.

Demand that CONCACAF has a real draw at the Gold Cup. No more of this “here are the groups”. It’s entirely unfair to send Canada to the gallows against Mexico in their only opportunity to pick up a lot of points. Relinquish the automatic berth into the Gold Cup. Playing Qualifying matches should certainly boost Canada’s rankings, as they are indeed one of the 12 best teams in CONCACAF. They should still qualify and help their rankings in the process. Now, it’s unlikely this happens, but it would help. Focus heavily on the 2017 Gold Cup. Since those matches carry the most weight of any Canada can play, success in the tournament will have a huge impact on the March 2019 rankings. If Canada can reach the knockout stage or even the semifinals of that tournament, it will put them in a great position. Stop scheduling friendlies against teams you can’t beat. Yes, the Colombia match was enjoyable to watch. Yes, the players probably enjoyed playing against some of the world’s best players. But the result was 0 points and a drop in the FIFA Rankings. Given the limited opportunity to pick up points, friendlies must be scheduled properly (which we’d be happy to help with). A loss is worthless.

If these things happen (specifically items 1, 3, and 4), Canada has a shot to head right to the semifinal round of CONCACAF qualifying for the 2022 World Cup. Having that bye would set Canada up to avoid the heavy hitters in CONCACAF and massively increase the probability of advancing to the Hex, where Canada has not been since 1998 World Cup Qualifying. Once there, all bets are off.

Canada is a talented team that stood toe to toe with Colombia. We think they’re close to being a top 10 team in CONCACAF. But the FIFA Rankings disagree, and they are fighting an uphill battle to reach the World Cup that no other CONCACAF nation is facing. They’ve been in limbo for far too long. It’s time for Canada to turn the tide and give themselves a chance to finally get back to the World Cup.