Boris Johnson has the majority he needs, but there are still many challenges ahead

The Conservative party landslide gives Boris Johnson a decisive mandate on Brexit, with a solid majority that means he will be able to push through Brexit on his terms.

While the prime minister has promised to go for a hard Canada-style deal, a pivot to a softer Brexit cannot be discounted now that he has room to manoeuvre thanks to the scale of his victory.

Moments after the exit poll, Michael Gove’s first words were about the need to rebuild and heal the nation, and a triumphant Johnson may well feel obligations to his new conquests in former Labour heartlands.

What are the next steps?

The legislation needed to give the withdrawal agreement legal effect before 31 January is expected to be put before parliament for a second reading within a week.

The race to “get Brexit done” has already begun, with talk of the House of Commons being asked to sit on the Saturday before Christmas and the House of Lords having to sit between Christmas and new year.

What is the timetable?

The new government is expected to meet on Tuesday 17 December with the Queen’s speech on Thursday.

This means the earliest possible date for the second reading of the withdrawal agreement bill is Friday 20 December, or Monday 23 December.

The timetable is still tight as it gives Johnson only 15 or 16 sitting days to get the withdrawal agreement bill over the line.

Nikki Da Costa, the director of legislative affairs in Downing Street, has previous estimated it would take 37 days to get the Brexit legislation through the Commons.

“It will not be fun doing a bill of this complexity in a month but it is doable,” said Brigid Fowler, senior researcher at the Hansard Society.

Will there be amendments?

With such a big majority none of the big contentious issues of the past should block Johnson’s path. But expect some amendments, most likely on Northern Ireland trade and on the transition period extension decision.

Business leaders in Northern Ireland will be looking for legal guarantees of “unfettered” trade across the Irish Sea. This is not about unpicking Johnson’s controversial arrangements over checks on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain but protection against any further concessions being made on Northern Ireland’s behalf in pursuit of trade deals with the likes of the US.

On the issue of the transition period, a one-off request to extend for one or two years must be made by 1 July. As it stands the withdrawal bill requires Commons approval for the active decision to request an extension. It does not, however, require approval for a decision not to seek an extension. Expect a proposed amendment giving the House of Commons powers on that.

Fowler said the withdrawal bill could squeak through providing there are no major upsets. “In very very broad terms, you could do a week in the Commons, a week in the Lords and then ping pong [the last stages of a bill when final tweaks are agreed by both houses].”

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Is that everything?

No. The European parliament must also ratify the withdrawal agreement. It has two plenary sessions in January, one in Strasbourg on 13 January and a second in Brussels on 29 and 30 January. Before that it has to go through a committee stage, but sources suggest that if the wind is behind Johnson it would be possible for the parliament to line up a committee stage in time for approval at the second plenary session.

How soon can negotiations on the trade deal and future relationship start?

It is widely assumed that they can start on 1 February. But as it stands this is unlikely.

As section 4 (31) of the withdrawal bill stands, “no minister of the crown can engage in negotiations on the future relationship with the EU unless … a statement of negotiating objectives has been approved by the House of Commons”.

The government has 30 sitting days after exit day to make a statement on what it wants in the next round of negotiations. Is it Canada plus? Is it EEA? Is it Norway plus?

This could yet be amended, with some of the view that Johnson will put forward an outline of negotiating objectives rather than a detailed plan, as is the convention.

Anything else?

Yes. Plenty. There could be a restructuring in Whitehall. Speculation is rife that the Department for Exiting the EU and the Department for International Trade will merge.

HMRC must immediately get into gear for the welter of new processes and systems in Northern Ireland.

A joint committee comprising of EU and UK representatives must be established to oversee the implementation of the entire withdrawal agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol.

And specialised committees have to be set up to work out the details for goods trading between Northern Ireland and Great Britain and make recommendations to the joint committee for final decision. Legally they can be established the day the withdrawal agreement bill is ratified.