The Bharatiya Janata Party could be in for a shock in Jharkhand, where elections were held for its 81-seat assembly recently. According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the BJP could end up falling short of reaching the half-way mark in the state.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll for Jharkhand forecast the BJP winning just 22-32 seats in the Jharkhand assembly, where a party needs at least 41 seats to win. The Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha alliance, on the other hand, is forecast to win 38-50 seats.

The AJSU Party could win 3-5 seats, the RJD 2-4 and JVM 2-4.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is not as far behind as in seats. The survey says that the BJP is likely to get a vote share of 34 per cent, while Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha alliance is likely to sweep 37 per cent votes. The AJSU Party is forecasted to bag nine per cent votes and the JVM six. Others are likely to get the rest 14 per cent.

The India Today-Axis My India Jharkhand exit poll was based on face-to-face interview with the questionnaire in 81 Assembly constituencies. The representative sampling was carried out across demography and geography. Results for the Jharkhand assembly election will be out on Monday.

The BJP will be keen for a strong showing in the Jharkhand contest. It once controlled much of the Hindi heartland but has lost ground in recent state elections. Congress governments were formed in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh just months before the general election (though the BJP won most Lok Sabha seats in these states, just as it did in Jharkhand). More recently, it failed to win a majority in Haryana but retained power by forging alliances.

FOLLOW LIVE UPDATES FROM THE JHARKHAND EXIT POLL

A map created by India Today TV's Data Intelligence Unit shows how the BJP's political footprint has shrunk between 2017 and 2019.

Standing in the BJP's way in Jharkhand is an alliance between the Congress, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

Decimated in the general election, the Congress, too, will be hungry for success. It has been a runner-up in all six state elections held since its December 2018 triumphs (it won zero seats in Sikkim and Andhra Pradesh) -- though it was one of two opposition parties that joined forces with the Shiv Sena to form a government in Maharashtra.

Other players to keep an eye on are the AJSU (All Jharkhand Students Union) party -- until recently a BJP ally -- and former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha.

Polling in Jharkhand was held in five phases, starting on November 30 and ending today.

Votes will be counted on Monday, December 23.



Watch: Congress-JMM poised for victory with 32-50 seats, predicts India Today-My Axis Exit poll