31,752. Out of the Cavaliers’ 9 rotation players and the Warriors’ 10, that’s the number of possible 10-man combinations that we may see these NBA Finals.

Thankfully, some are more likely than others. For both teams, the most common lineups are neatly arranged into three types: Starters, Small Ball, and Bench Mob.

Before diving in, a quick tangent:

Who starts: Barnes or Iguodala?

Last year, the key to the Warriors recovering from a 2-1 deficit in the Finals was Steve Kerr inserting Andre Iguodala into the starting lineup to lock down LeBron James. Had it not been for his heroics this year upon entering the starting lineup for the final game and a half against OKC, this article may be about Cavs and Thunder lineup matchups.

Iguodala has been better defensively all season, finishing a respectable 18th in Defensive Real Plus-Minus amongst Small Forwards that played at least 50 games; Barnes outranked only 10 such players. On the other end, Iggy has scorched opponents by draining nearly half of his catch-and-shoot 3’s, while Barnes has barely made a third of his. There are real concerns of fatigue given Iguodala’s immense efforts against OKC and his monumental upcoming task of guarding LeBron James. However, Kerr never overplays his key players, even in the most important situations, and Barnes certainly should get some time guarding LeBron.

Ultimately, the answer is simple: start Iguodala.

Let’s dive in.

When the Cavaliers have the ball

In the regular season, the Warriors had success putting Klay on Kyrie, although Steph will likely see some time on him as well, by design or not. Love or Frye at the 5 adds an interesting wrinkle and may force the Dubs to go to their own Small Ball lineup earlier than they’d like. But otherwise, it’s pretty straight-up.

The Warriors are good at defense. Let’s move on.

When the Warriors have the ball

Here’s how the Cavaliers should line up with the Warriors’ Starters:

“Pick your poison” has never been more real. First and foremost, Kyrie Irving is an abysmal defender, which the Dubs will exploit whenever possible. Plus, ESPN.com’s Zach Lowe dropped this knowledge bomb in his comprehensive takedown of the Cavaliers’ sneakily lackluster defense this postseason:

Irving and Love have been the central players in Cleveland’s worst breakdowns. Opponents in the playoffs have scored 1.09 points per chance when they involve those two as the primary pick-and-roll defenders in a play that leads directly to a shot attempt, drawn foul or turnover, per SportVU data provided to ESPN.com. That would have ranked last by a mile among 119 two-man combos that defended at least 250 pick-and-rolls in the regular season, per that SportVU data set.

Fancy analytics aside, “disaster” isn’t a strong enough word to describe this:

Tyronn Lue absolutely cannot put Love on Green if they want to slow down the deadly Curry-Green pick-and-roll. Thompson is quick enough to slide in front of Curry’s drive, athletic enough to contest his release, and savvy enough to stay on him late in the shot clock. However, on drag screens in semi-transition, Irving will need to work his ass off to get around them, or, better yet, avoid getting screened at all. The alternative is a forced switch with either Steph roasting Thompson off the dribble, or Draymond bullying Irving in the post.

The Cavs should explore some alternative matchups as well:

This could be the Cavs’ best shot with their Starters on the floor. It puts the Cavs’ three best defenders on the Dubs’ three most dangerous weapons, although it forces Irving to try to guard and box out Iguodala. The Warriors will see this and will immediately put Irving in the pick-and-roll by screening with Iggy, which can break this arrangement if the Dubs get a few easy looks. If Barnes continues to slump, then this option may be more tenable with him in Iguodala’s spot. All in all, this is a high-variance option that the Cavs should test out at some point.

The Cavs’ Bench Mob, their second most-played five-man combination in the playoffs per BasketballReference, may actually match up better with the Warriors’ best lineups:

Last year, a similar lineup grinded the pace of the game to a halt and allowed the undermanned Cavs to go up 2-1. Dellavedova made life difficult for Steph and is clearly superior to Irving on defense. Unlike the lineup above with Irving on Iggy, this one matches up size-wise, alleviating the risk associated with massive size disparities and cross-matches in transition. Plus, LeBron’s versatility and athleticism can limit Draymond’s playmaking brilliance and get inside of his head.

The Cavs will need to alter their rotations. Typically, the Cavs use the Bench Mob at the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters. However, Lue should bring this lineup in much earlier – as early as 7 minutes left in the first quarter – in order to maximize its minutes against the Warriors’ starters. Then, as soon as Livingston or Barbosa step onto the floor, Kyrie should immediately re-enter. Lue absolutely must have him on the floor whenever there is an available hiding spot in order to maximize his offensive impact while minimizing his defensive liability. If Lue can get the most out of his Bench Mob against the Warriors’ Starters, then he can get killer matchups like these against the Warriors’ Bench Mob that can either pound them on the offensive glass with Thompson or stretch them thin with Frye:

I doubt Lue will try this radical change from the jump, but if the first two games in Oakland pan out poorly for the Cavs, this may be the drastic measure they’ll need to turn the series around.

Finally, the Cavs will need to figure out the lineup that doomed them last year: the Small Ball Lineup of Death:

This arrangement is the best option of many bad choices. Again, the Cavs need to avoid putting Love on Draymond and Kyrie on Curry. These matchups probably aren’t sustainable for extended minutes; LeBron won’t be able to carry the offensive load, guard Draymond the entire game, and lock him down in crunch time. However, it certainly can work for short stretches and especially at the end of the game when the pace slows down considerably. Earlier in the game, the Cavs should swap out Love for Thompson like so:

The Cavs have their work cut out for them, but these adjustments may throw the Warriors off just enough to take them out of their game and let the Cavs’ high octane offense drive them to victory.

As coaches brew and plan for the ensuing chess match, many more moves are yet to be played. For every substitution, there is a counter. For every defensive adjustment, there are ramifications for offensive transition. For every shift to more shooting and spacing, there are lost opportunities for offensive rebounds. What will the next move be? I can’t wait to see.

Prediction: Warriors in 7

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Check out my previous articles:

How Mason Plumlee Sank the Clippers

In Defense of Rebounding

How the Bulls Have Unleashed Jimmy Butler as an Alley Ooping Machine