The 90th Academy Awards kicks off on Sunday evening (US Pacific time). Here’s what you need to know, when you need to know it by and who will win the key prizes

Oscars 2018 predictions, timetable and all you need to know

Hello, good evening and welcome to the 90th Academy Awards [assumes David Frost voice], which are due to get under way in a few hours time in Los Angeles.

As we drum our fingers and twiddle our thumbs, this is a good time to reflect on what surely is a landmark Oscars after a year of turbulence and sea change in Hollywood: the downfall of Harvey Weinstein, the emergence of Times Up and red-carpet blackouts, and the thrilling rise of diversity at the multiplex.

The consensus is that this year’s best picture Oscar has boiled down to a two-horse race, between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – the former edging ahead despite the latter winning the equivalent award at the Baftas and coming out on top at the Globes. The other headline awards look like they’ll be dead certs: the money is on Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Frances McDormand for Three Billboards, and Sam Rockwell and Alison Janney for the supporting actor nods. Shape heads the nominations count with 13, but if the Baftas are anything to go by no one film will sweep the board. Here’s the full list to peruse.

As usual, your hardworking Guardian team will be on the case, covering the red carpet, the ceremony and the aftermath. Here are a few pointers as to what to look out for, some final predictions and a timetable.

Timetable

After last year’s hopelessness, the whole thing has been brought forward half an hour. We’ll be launching our live blog at 2:30pm PT, 5:30pm ET, 10.30pm GMT and 9.30am (Monday) AEDT, for live coverage from the red carpet, rolling news, galleries, analysis and comment, taking in the ceremony – which starts at 5pm PT, 8pm ET, 1am (Monday) GMT and 12noon (Monday) AEDT – and the aftermath.

Final predictions

Guardian writers have been busily analysing the chances of each of the best picture nominees, while Stuart Heritage, has cast a beady eye over the annual For Your Consideration adverts. The Guardian’s chief film critic Peter Bradshaw also has had his say.

And here’s our final best guess on how it will go down.

Best picture The Shape of Water

Best director Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best actor Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best actress Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best supporting actor Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best supporting actress Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Best original screenplay Get Out

Best adapted screenplay Call Me By Your Name

Best documentary Faces Places

Best original song This Is Me, The Greatest Showman

Best animated feature Coco

Best foreign language film A Fantastic Woman

What you need to know

• The Harvey Weinstein scandal, still rolling on, casts its shadow over these Oscars: not the least because more than anywhere, this was his fiefdom. This year he won’t be in attendance and, as our writer Hadley Freeman points out, the Oscars have a chance to change direction.

• Meanwhile, last year’s almighty fiasco seems like small beer in comparison, but the powers that be are still taking no chances: they have banned backstage tweeting by the officials handing over the winners’ envelopes.

• Efforts to make the Oscar voting pool more diverse seem to be slowly paying off, with best picture nominations for Get Out, Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird. We heard from some of the Oscar pioneers, including Rachel Morrison, the first-ever female nominee for cinematography, and took a special look at best supporting actress nominee Mary J Blige. The new mood still hasn’t stopped some of the nominated films miring themselves in controversy: Three Billboards has been accused of dodgy racial politics, Call Me By Your Name of promoting underage sex and Shape of Water film-makers are being sued for plagiarism.

• One bit of positive news: after vociferous complaints over the exclusion of female directors from the Golden Globe list, the Oscars managed to right the wrong by voting Greta Gerwig through in the best director category. To be honest, Guillermo del Toro is the nailed-down winner for this one, striking (yet another) blow for Mexican film-makers.

• Nobody’s sure what will happen on the red carpet; after the Globe and Bafta blackouts, will the Oscars follow suit? The Guardian’s fashion team have taken the temperature.

• Making the best of a bad thing: Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway are returning to present the best picture award. We trust they’ll be a bit more careful this time.

• Someone who won’t be showing up: Kareem Abeed, producer of Last Men in Aleppo (nominated for best documentary), who was denied a visa by US authorities. Here’s the film’s director Feras Fayyad on the hostility his film has provoked.

• Our music maestro has made his way through the full best song list; read the verdict here.

• Some Oscar history: the strangest nominations (George Bernard Shaw? Me neither) and the ongoing debate over whether 2004 winner Crash really was the worst ever. Everyone likes a snub, too.

• What happened at the epic “class photo” picture shoot at the nominees lunch. No one mention the cutout.

• The Australian and British contenders, if that’s your thing.

• The always schadenfreudery rundown of the films that tried but failed to get on the Oscar radar.

• And finally: the 2018 Oscars in numbers.





All you need now is your Oscar bingo card. Eyes down!