Sky Views: The Lib Dems are back in the game - and could decide who takes power

Sky Views: The Lib Dems are back in the game - and could decide who takes power

By Adam Boulton, editor-at-large

A friend sent a message this week after the two contenders to take over the leadership of the Liberal Democrats debated face-to-face on All Out Politics. "Such a relief to see and hear politics rather than the glorified celebrity shows on offer elsewhere."

As I moderated the friendly exchanges between Sir Ed Davey and Jo Swinson, I felt far away from the killing fields of Brexit and party leadership where Labour and Conservatives are fighting their wars of attrition.

Image: The two leadership hopefuls were interviewed by Boulton on his All Out Politics show on Monday

William Hague thought he had finished off the Liberal Democrats when he sealed the deal for them to be the junior partners in David Cameron's coalition. For many years it looked like he was right especially after Nick Clegg did a full grovel to apologise for his party's U-turn backing higher student fees.

For now at least the Liberal Democrats are back in the game and it's worth taking note of the other leadership contest which will reveal its winner on 23 July, the same day as the final result in the Boris Johnson v Jeremy Hunt Tory battle.


The Liberal Democrats have done well in this year's elections in Great Britain.

They came second in May's European parliament elections with 19.6% of the votes, behind the Brexit Party (30.5%), but well ahead of Labour (13.6%), the Greens 11% and the Conservatives (8.8%).

In the local elections a few weeks earlier, the Lib Dems came third but they gained over 700 councillors whereas the Conservatives and Labour lost ground.

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As traditional two party politics is put on the rack by splits over Brexit, the Lib Dems are also holding their own in national opinion polls. A YouGov poll for the Times last Thursday had the Conservatives on 24%, the Brexit Party on 23%, the Lib Dems on 20%, actually ahead of Labour on just 18%, their worst rating for decades.

Rather to the surprise of many at Westminster, the Lib Dems are benefiting from being the leading Great Britain-wide Remain party. When a dozen MPs split from Labour and the Conservatives to form The Independent Group, they thought the public wanted a new pro-European party.

Image: The Lib Dems dressed in 'stop Brexit' shirts in the European Parliament

Instead what became Change UK effectively collapsed after polling just 3.3% in the European Elections. Chuka Umunna, Change's most high profile MP and a former Labour leadership contender, joined the Lib Dems and is now their Treasury spokesman,

Many in Labour believe they can get back votes from the Lib Dems if only Jeremy Corbyn shifts party policy to the Lib Dem position of calling for another referendum in which they would campaign for remain.

This is a mirror image of the Conservative argument now endorsed by both Hunt and Johnson, that they can get back votes from the Brexit Party, if they move closer to Nigel Farage's position, and prepare to leave the EU without an agreement.

Shifting the position of the leadership while keeping their parties united is proving tricky for both Labour and the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats have no such difficulties. True one of their MPs, Stephen Lloyd from Eastbourne, resigned the whip so he could vote for Mrs May's deal, but he has now been replaced by the more charismatic Umunna.

The party also has high hopes of winning the upcoming parliamentary by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire, caused by the recall of the sitting Tory MP and candidate.

Image: Chuka Umunna joined the party after the swift collapse of Change UK

It's a seat the Liberals have often held in the past, and there are already hints that some of the other pro-European parties may not stand giving them a clear run. The vote on the right is certain to be split between the Conservatives and the Brexit party.

The Lib Dems know exactly where they stand on Brexit and are not arguing with each other. At the opening session of the new European Parliament their 16 MEPs wore yellow T-shirts with "Stop Brexit" on the front and "Bollocks to Brexit" printed on the back.

As a party which has shared power in local government and in the coalition, they have no shortage of well-developed policies in other areas.

Image: Ed Davey served in David Cameron's government

Ed Davey served three years in Cameron's cabinet as Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change. Jo Swinson was a business and equalities minister.

Both candidates have direct experience of the ups and downs of electoral politics. Both lost their seats in the 2015 General Election but won them back two years later in Theresa May's botched snap election.

The choice for the Lib Dems will come down to youth versus experience, there's not much between the candidates on policy. Davey, 55, is the "safe pair of hands" in the race. Swinson, 39, is already the deputy leader of the party under Sir Vince Cable.

Image: Jo Swinson is already the party's deputy leader

She can be volatile and alienated some grandees in the party when her vehemence led to her calling for the suspension of former Liberal leader Sir David Steel for inactivity pursuing historic sex abuse allegations.

With Theresa May gone, Swinson would be the only woman leader of a major party in England, and the first female Liberal leader.

Whoever wins, the two candidates will go on working with each other. They share a common desire for their party to become significant again in the national debate.

More importantly they could well hold the balance of power again after the next General Election. In another hung parliament Swinson and Davey agree that they would not go into coalition again with the Tories or with Corbyn's Labour party.

Even without that the Lib Dems could decide who takes power and throw down red lines for the new government.

Whoever takes over from Sir Vince, we'll be hearing a lot more from Davey and Swinson and their Liberal Democrats.

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every morning.

Previously on Sky Views: Ian King - Rash of private equity buy-outs could be bad news for your pension