The rise of China is perhaps the defining event of our epoch. Although predictions of the future are notoriously unreliable, such a monumental shift in the global order, which is currently being witnessed from one characterized by expansive Western domination, should not be underestimated and could well prove to be comparable in magnitude with the sack of Rome. Rigorous, logical and evidential analysis of China's development and influence on world affairs is therefore of paramount importance.

On June 25 2014, The National Interest published an article by the respected political scientist Professor David Shambaugh arguing that despite the impressive list of Chinese achievements and rapid advancements, the People's Republic of China (PRC) is far from approaching any state of parity with the United States in terms of great-power status. Although there is merit in criticizing the plethora of hyperbolic commentaries regarding China's rise, the analysis contains many erroneous factual statements, inconsistencies and logical fallacies.

Professor Shambaugh details Chinese capabilities which make it a viable contender as the world's foremost power. These include, verbatim: the world’s largest population, a large continental land mass, the world’s second-largest economy, the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s second-largest military budget, the world's largest standing armed forces, a manned space program, an aircraft carrier, the world’s largest national expressway network and the world’s best high-speed rail system. China is the world’s leading trading nation, the world’s largest consumer of energy, the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitter, the world’s second-largest recipient and third-largest originator of foreign direct investment and the world’s largest producer of many goods.

Although one may dispute the list provided, for example, a large population and land mass did not prevent China succumbing to Britain in the two Opium Wars, Shambaugh maintains that it provides the PRC with a solid claim to great-power status. Nevertheless, Chinese weaknesses in the realms of international diplomacy, military might, cultural influence, economic dynamism and miscellaneous factors seriously diminish China's international standing, invalidating claims that it will soon surpass the United States in the global hierarchy.

Due to space and time constraints, this essay will systematically assess only one element of the original thesis: that China is ineffectual diplomatically; it is a passive and selfish nation seriously undermining its international power.

The Definition of Power

Shambaugh uses the definition of power as given by the political scientist Robert Dahl: country A is more powerful than country B if “A has power over B to the extent that he can get B to do something that B would not otherwise do.” Moreover, the essay states:

“capabilities that are not converted into actions toward achieving certain ends are not worth much. Their existence may have an impressive or deterrent effect, but it is the ability to influence the action of another or the outcome of an event that matters. There are, of course, various means by which nations use their capabilities to influence the actions of others and the course of events: attraction, persuasion, co-optation, coercion, remuneration, inducement, or the threat or use of force. Power and its exercise are therefore intrinsically relational: the use of these and other instruments toward others in order to influence a situation to one’s own benefit.”

The most pertinent question is: is the only valid definition of power the use of capabilities to compel weaker states to make decisions contrary to their natural inclinations or long-term interests? Without entering too deeply into semantics, it may be argued that the capability to attract, persuade, co-opt, coerce, remunerate, induce or threaten is evidence that power exists, whether overt or concealed. The fact that the article states that China has impressive capabilities in this regard is evidence therefore that its power is tangible and real. Whether China decides to exercise these capabilities according to, or contrary to, Western interests or favors a state of armed neutrality is irrelevant if the faculty to do so is extant.

Stating that China does not implement its capabilities in a realist sense and hence lacks power is a fundamental occidental misunderstanding of oriental exercise of power and conduct of international relations. It is not possible to comprehend Chinese attitudes toward the employment of capabilities to project power through recourse to Western realpolitik or Enlightenment ideologies. China views its international relations through the prism of its own historical and philosophical traditions, which are neither superior nor inferior to any other. To argue otherwise would be to claim absolute truth in one’s own moral and cultural values and require comprehensive substantiation.

Is China diplomatically isolated?

Shambaugh states that China does not actively engage in international affairs and is isolated diplomatically, which detracts substantially from Chinese power. This contention is refuted by the article itself with the statement:

“in formal respects, China’s diplomacy has truly gone global. . . . Today, Beijing enjoys diplomatic relations with 175 countries, is a member of more than 150 international organizations and is party to more than three hundred multilateral treaties. It receives far more visiting foreign dignitaries every year than any other nation, and its own leaders travel the world regularly. . . . It’s a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a member of the G-20 and other key global bodies, and a participant in all major international summits.”

One may also add Chinese participation in the China-CELAC partnership, the BRICS development forum and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Is a nation that “receives far more visiting foreign dignitaries every year than any other nation” diplomatically isolated and lack influence? Furthermore, does isolationism imply weakness? If so, would the United States' decision not to participate in the League of Nations and pursue such a policy mean that it lacked power in the interwar period at a time when it achieved naval parity with the United Kingdom?

He also claims that “[China] is a passive and often-reluctant participant in multilateral efforts organized by others (usually the United States),” especially during global crises such as Ukraine and Syria. Moreover, “China does not lead. It does not shape international diplomacy, drive other nations’ policies, forge global consensus, put together coalitions or solve problems.”

A more logical conclusion is that despite the importance of Syria and Ukraine in Western opinion, these issues are irrelevant to Chinese strategic thinking. In relation to Syria, what would China gain from participation? Cui Bono? China has little to gain from the ousting of President Assad; similarly it has little to gain from his remaining in power. Moreover, as the article states, China has the capability to act; it chooses not to engage, despite pleas from the United States indicating that China is largely immune to compulsion in the execution of its foreign policy. If country A (the United States) cannot compel, coerce or persuade country B (China) to follow a course contrary to what it otherwise would, this indicates that a state of parity, or near parity, exists between the United States and China, thereby invalidating the initial hypothesis that China is considerably far from surpassing the United States.

China has long expressed its support for a Westphalian international order rejecting coercive or unwelcome intrusions into the internal affairs of other states, from civil wars to domestic policy, from religion or to effect regime change where the issue does not have a direct impact on China's national security. Its ambivalence to the Arab Spring and the Ukraine crisis may also be explained in terms of this Chinese international world view. Its unwillingness to act on these matters is far from characteristic of a weak, irresponsible power with little regard for international diplomacy or norms. As Sun Tzu states in The Art of War, “He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”

Are Chinese diplomatic efforts clumsy?

The original article defines Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, territorial disputes and “clumsy” efforts to defend these issues as “being counterproductive to [China’s] image and its goals.” Is there any evidence in support of this assertion? Currently no sovereign nation officially recognizes a Xinjiang or Tibetan government in exile and only twenty-one countries recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan). Similarly, international criticism of human rights and “occupied” territories does not lessen Chinese influence. Comparable accusations regarding human-rights abuses, such as the retention of the death penalty, extraordinary rendition and the invasion of other nations without UN support, have also been leveled at the United States, yet this does not detract from relative U.S. power in the original analysis.

With regard to Taiwan, a Chinese secessionist issue, the American Civil War and resulting prohibition of succession in U.S. law did little to impede the ascendency of the United States in the nineteenth century. Similarly, the Taiwan question is unlikely to affect China's rise in the twenty-first. Analogous arguments exist concerning Tibet and Xinjiang; The annexation of Northern Mexico and Texas and westward expansion by the United States were of little consequence to U.S. preeminence. Likewise, Chinese occupation of Xinjiang and Tibet are likely to do little to hinder Chinese diplomacy.

Does China genuinely attempt international problem solving?