ON MAY 22nd Ireland could become the first country in the world to legalise same-sex marriage by popular vote. If Irish voters pass the referendum measure, the country will join another 18 that grant full marriage equality. This would be a remarkably swift transition; homosexuality was only decriminalised in 1993. Other attempts at liberalising social policy have met with mixed results. Divorce was only approved in 1995 at a second referendum and abortion has yet to pass after three attempts.

And despite the prospect of marriage equality, Ireland is not a particularly equal place for gay and transgender people. In a report published this month by ILGA-Europe that ranks 49 countries on 48 different measures, Ireland comes 20th, with an equality score of 40 out of a maximum possible 100. Even if marriage equality were achieved, this would only nudge the country’s score up to 43 in part because of its record on transgender recognition—though a bill is currently underway to address this. Nonetheless, other Catholic countries such as Spain and Malta are much more progressive; Georgia is only two places below Ireland. Britain, where similar marriage laws were passed last year (except in Northern Ireland), comes top.

The most recent polling points to a “Yes” victory in Ireland, with a vote share ranging between 60% and 70%, though this has fallen by about five percentage points since April and the share of undecided voters has risen. As on most social issues, the young are overwhelmingly more liberal: 85% of 18-35 year-olds say they will vote Yes against only 37% of over 65s. The “Yes” campaign, mindful of the wonky polling in Britain’s recent general election, is concentrating on getting those young voters to the polls. If turnout reaches 45-50%, the outcome is more likely to be in favour of a Yes vote, according to the Irish Times. The “No” campaign, mainly composed of family and religious groups, will rely on an effect similar to that of the "silent no” and “silent Tories” seen in the Scottish referendum and the British election.