The hurdles Yan Xiaonan and her team had to overcome to make this fight a reality is unparelleled. Yan had to disrupt her training camp in Beijing due to COVID-19 and fly to Thailand with her coach, Ruy Menezes, and teammate Li Jingliang to continue training.

BloodycanvasUFC spoke with New Zealand Immigration to determine if travel is restricted for Chinese travellers out of Thailand. Anish, a New Zealand Immigration officer, stated that any traveller travelling out of mainland China after February 3, 2020 is subject to a 14 day entrance ban. If they left China before February 3, 2020, they will be allowed entry into New Zealand upon screening at the airport. If the traveller displays any signs of illness they will have to self-isolate for 14 days. If a traveller has been in China after February 2nd, they will be refused entry or denied boarding to New Zealand regardless of whether they have travelled somewhere else in between. This restriction is in place for up to 14 days.

Even though Yan is in Thailand, she and her team will be allowed entrance into New Zealand because she left China before February 2nd. They will be screened upon arrival at the airport and if everything is okay, they will be in Auckland by the 22nd. If she or any of her team display any signs of illness, they might be subject to self-isolation for 14 days, in which case, she would miss the fight.

This is an important fight for Xiaonan, as she missed out on the Singapore card due to an ankle injury during training and had to watch as Weili Zhang became the first Chinese female UFC champion, even though Xiaonan was the first Chinese female fighter to be signed by the UFC.

“The injury was disappointing, and it was pretty bad. I couldn’t really do much for a while but I had time to spend with my family, to think about my future, and now here we are.

I was there when Weili won. We are from the same team so I was so excited, it was almost like I had won the fight myself. If Zhang Weili can be champion for a long time or even ranked in the top five, I think I will meet her very soon.”

Xiaonan is 11-1-0 with one no contest while Karolina is 12-5-0. Xiaonan is a (-230) favorite, Karolina a (+185) underdog. This is a good AND bad match up for Karolina. Good because Xiaonan likes to stand up and strike rather than grapple, which is Karolina’s weak spot. Bad because Xiaonan is stronger and faster than Karolina, both standing up and in the clinch.

Xiaonan lands 6.85 significant strikes per minute while Karolina lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute. Both are busy women on the feet, but Karolina doesn’t have knockout power – she hasn’t knocked someone out since 2012. Xiaonan, on the other hand, has 5 knockout wins under her belt.

Regarding defense, Xiaonan absorbs 4.22 significant strikes per minute compared to Karolina absrobing 5.58 significant strikes per minute. Xiaonan also manages to make her opponent miss 64% of the time they attempt a strike compared to Karolina’s 57% strike defense. Xiaonan has very effective ground and pound, as does Kowalkiewicz.

Karolina is coming off 3 losses while Xiaonan is coming off 3 wins. I could never say that this is a must win situation for Karolina because I don’t know who in their right mind would ever cut her from their organization, but this is definitely a must win for Karolina. That being said, it is going to be a tall order for her to defeat Yan because of Yan’s volume and power.

Nevertheless, this is going to be an exciting muay thai fight. Both women are vicious and have no fear in the octagon. Karolina is as tough as they come, going to the 3rd round with the likes of Namajunas, Grasso and Waterson, as well as going 5 rounds with Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Volume is the key to all of Karolina’s victories and this will be no different. If she wants to beat Xiaonan, she’s going to have to throw and land more strikes. Xiaonan will have to make Karolina go backward instead of forward and utilize her incredible kicks and crazy combinations to do so.

Prediction: Both women will utilize their muay thai skills to beat the crap out of each other, however, Yan is too strong for Karolina. Xiaonan will hurt Karolina enough to keep her at bay while punishing Karolina when she attacks. Pick: Yan Xiaonan by decision.

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