Good morning and welcome to my weekly weather report on the immediate past, present and future of weather in the Bayou City.

PAST

As everyone knows Houston has experienced a remarkably cool winter, among the 10 coldest on record.

But the wild stats about this winter don’t stop there.

According to data from the National Weather Service, the city of Houston recorded five consecutive months of below-normal temperatures from October through February. And it’s all but certain this month, March, will finish with a below normal temperature as well.

Houston has not gone six consecutive months with below-normal temperatures since 1983. So it’s been 30 years since Houston has been colder than normal for such a prolonged period of time.

Wait, there’s more. From January 2006 through December 2012 just 13 out of those 84 months recorded a below normal temperatures, or 15 percent. In the 14 months since then, eight have recorded below normal temperatures, or 57 percent.

The bottom line is that the last six months have been cold in all-time terms, but perhaps more significantly this has been the longest spell of colder-than-normal weather than Houston has experienced in three decades.

Anyway, let’s do the numbers for last week.

Date High Temp. Low Temp. Average Departure Rainfall Monday 63 44 54 -9 0.00 Tuesday 77 43 60 -3 0.00 Wednesday 75 57 66 +3 0.00 Thursday 76 56 66 +2 0.00 Friday 78 50 64 0 0.00 Saturday 81 65 73 +9 Trace Sunday 72 53 63 -1 0.05 Average 76.0 52.6 63.7 +0.1 0.05 (tot.)

PRESENT

The region’s gloomy, gray weather will continue today, although there’s only a slight chance of rain.

Tuesday should be an absolutely splendid day — the nicest of the week — with ample sunshine and highs in the low 70s.

However by Tuesday night the high pressure will move off, allowing for a strong easterly wind to return, and with a fairly tight pressure gradients winds on Wednesday could gust up to 25 mph, say forecasters with the National Weather Service.

This will raise moisture levels by Wednesday and bring a good chance of rain into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, although the precise timing and intensity of showers remains unclear.

It looks like the region’s rain chances will fall off on Friday, which should be a warm day in the low 80s.

By Friday evening or so some forecast models bring a weak front into the area. Should this happen it would yield an absolutely gorgeous weekend, with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid- to upper-70s.

FUTURE

We’re now reaching the time of year when it starts to warm up, and days with temperatures of 85 degrees or warmer become possible.

Houston hasn’t had one of those since Nov. 17.

In 2013 the city recorded its first 85-degree day on March 18. This year it appears possible that we might see one on Friday, or possibly Saturday if that weak front is delayed a bit.

In any case we’re about to transition to significantly warmer weather as we get deeper into spring.

SUMMARY

My rating scale for this week’s weather goes from 0 to 168,000, the number of gallons of oil that spilled into Galveston Bay after a ship and barge collided near the Texas City Dike Saturday afternoon..

My number: 117,001.

Finally, if you want several daily updates on weather, please “like” my SciGuy Facebook page. It’s the best place for multiple daily updates on our weather, delivered right to your news feed.

FINE PRINT

As always, thank you to the fine professionals at the National Weather Service for the information and data that make this weekly blog entry possible. Also, bear in mind there’s always uncertainty in weather forecasting, particularly the timing and intensity of precipitation.