Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), left, listens during a hearing on Capitol Hill. Rivals shy away from Grayson

As a polarizing freshman from a competitive House seat, one with a habit of making provocative comments, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) would appear to rank among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

Yet Republican after Republican keeps backing away from challenging him, enough to raise the question: Are prospective candidates scared of Grayson?


The notion isn’t as outlandish as it seems. First, the best-known candidate in the Orlando region, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, decided not to pursue a campaign. Then one of the most respected Florida conservatives, former state Sen. Daniel Webster, shocked the party when he announced he wasn’t running — even though he’d already begun to scout locations for his campaign kickoff and had talked to House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) about supporting his potential candidacy. Several state legislators also took a pass, despite the inviting political landscape and the national party’s hunger to oust Grayson.

Then there were the two well-funded Orlando businessmen, Tim Seneff and Jerry Pierce, who also floated their names as possible challengers before deciding to step aside.

That has left 28-year-old developer Armando Gutierrez Jr., who just moved to Orlando, as Grayson’s current leading opponent. Even though he’s won endorsements from Florida Republican Reps. Tom Rooney and Gus Bilirakis, leading Republican officials privately believe he would have a difficult time defeating Grayson because he lacks ties to the Orlando area.

Analysts on both sides say that potential challengers have had to think long and hard about whether they want to engage in what is sure to be a smash-mouth, no-holds-barred campaign. The pugnacious Grayson is not only independently wealthy — he is one of the wealthiest members of the House, with an estimated $31 million net worth — but now also possesses a national fundraising base in the wake of a headline-grabbing episode last month in which he claimed on the House floor that the GOP health care plan consisted of wanting sick seniors to die quickly.

“These people realize that Grayson plays hardball. There are two reasons that are giving these Republican candidates pause: It will be a bruiser of a campaign, and he has a huge amount of money to spend,” said John Dowless, a leading Republican consultant in the Orlando area.

“It is the phone conversation among the political insiders around here: ‘Where are the candidates?’ We’re all completely flummoxed as to why so many people aren’t running. There’s hardly anybody left.”

Grayson’s team is quick to warn prospective GOP opponents that the controversial first-term incumbent plans to run a punishing campaign.

“The people who decided not to run obviously do not have the stomach for the difficult race,” Grayson’s senior campaign adviser, Julie Tagen, told POLITICO. “As for the people who have already entered the race, they are a veritable ‘Who’s that?’ of Central Florida. Whoever wins the nomination will end up gutted like a fish by Election Day.”

Grayson himself has openly gloated about his lack of Republican opposition, releasing a Top 10 list to his supporters last week explaining why no one wants to run against him. In it, he joked that candidates are passing on the race because their wives will cheat on them back home, and launched a thinly veiled barb at Crotty, whom he accused of “shaking down vendors in Orange County.”

Several Florida Republican operatives acknowledged that some prospective candidates were reluctant to sign on for what they expected to be a scorched-earth campaign that, even in the event of victory, would come at the cost of having their reputations dragged through the mud.

“The toughest thing Republicans have going for them is, the guys looking at running have very successful political or business careers. And the stomach for engaging in the kind of bare-knuckles campaign just to end up being a minor player in Congress is just not there for these guys,” said Florida GOP strategist Brett Doster.

Orange County Republican Party Chairman Lew Oliver said he was still optimistic that the party would coalesce behind one strong candidate, and he has been speaking with a new wave of candidates interested in taking on Grayson.

“We’re so excited that I’m going to have a lottery to see who’s going to be our candidate,” Oliver said. “The fact is, a lot of people want to take on Alan Grayson, but they don’t want to float their names yet. But we have a big batting cage of folks sitting and waiting.”

That current bench, according to GOP recruiters, consists of three candidates: state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, a 32-year-old first-term legislator; attorney Will McBride, who unsuccessfully challenged Katherine Harris in the 2006 Republican Senate primary; and businessman Bruce O’Donoghue.

Of those three, O’Donoghue, who runs a traffic management business, has emerged as the most likely contender. The 55-year-old has spent his entire life in the Orlando area, inherited his father’s business and is close to regional GOP power brokers, including former Sen. Mel Martinez and former Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings.

Republicans are also enthusiastic about his campaign because of his ability to self-finance. O’Donoghue said he hasn’t made a final decision but is very close to entering the race in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m not scared of Alan Grayson,” O’Donoghue told POLITICO. “He can fire all the shots he thinks are necessary, but the bottom line is he’s out of touch with the people of this district.”

“Politics can get dirty — as long as they leave my wife and kids out of the picture. I get along with just about everybody in this community, and I do not understand Alan Grayson. He doesn’t represent this community, and it’s time to get someone in there that does.”

Eisnaugle told POLITICO that the prospect of a Grayson onslaught wouldn’t dissuade him from running, but he did have serious reservations about spending most of the week in Washington away from his family.

“I’m looking at it closely, but I don’t want to drag it out. It wasn’t on my radar screen until a week ago,” said Eisnaugle. “The truth is, running for Congress is a life change. You have to move to D.C. If you have kids, it can be quite difficult. If your priority is your family, it doesn’t make sense.”

As Republicans mull over their options, Grayson has been busy stockpiling campaign cash. According to his campaign, 10,000 people donated $300,000 since he gave his widely publicized House speech — most of it in addition to the $477,000 he banked at the end of September.

He recently set up a website called CongressmanWithGuts.com proclaiming Nov. 2 as a “money bomb” day for progressives to donate money to his campaign.

“Grayson has positioned himself to be public enemy No. 1 for all congressional races, but we’re having a difficult time finding a good candidate,” said Doster. “By mid-February, if you don’t have anyone there with a serious plan for funding a top-tier race, it’s going to be a tough race for Republicans to win.”