The proportion of people cycling to work across England and Wales stayed more or less static over a decade, analysis of census data has shown, despite big rises in bike commuting in major cities and repeated predictions that Britain was on the way to becoming a cycling nation.

Overall, 741,000 working people aged 16 to 74 cycled to work in 2011, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed. While this was a rise of 90,000 from the previous census a decade earlier, an associated increase in the working population meant the proportion of cycle commuters was unchanged at 2.8%.

There were numerous predictions that a significant proportion of Britons would soon cycle to work, notably after the success of GB cyclists at the 2008 Olympics. However, the ONS analysis appears to bear out the complaint of cycling campaigners that while more people cycle for sport or leisure, travelling by bike remains a niche means of everyday transport, largely because of poor infrastructure on the roads.

The figures also bear out the concern that intimidating road conditions mean cycle commuting is primarily the preserve of younger men, seen as more happy to mingle with heavy, fast traffic. Men were significantly more likely to commute on a bike than women – 3.9% of the total as against 1.6% – and it was most common overall among people aged 30 to 34.

However, there were massive geographical variances, even within cities. The number of people cycling to work in inner London rose by 144% over the decade, against a more modest 45% rise in the capital's outer suburbs.

A number of other cities recorded notable rise in the number of bike commuters, with increases of 80% or more in Brighton, Bristol, Manchester, Newcastle and Sheffield, and a 65% boost in Cardiff.

However, in rural areas the picture proved very different, with some areas recording drops of up to 30%, albeit based on relatively low overall numbers. Across the board, the numbers cycling to work fell in 202 of the 348 local authorities over the decade.

The data shows how far the country has to go to match ministers' stated wishes for Britain to become more like the Netherlands or Denmark, where some places record one-third or more of all trips made by bicycle. Only 31 areas in England and Wales – fewer than one in 10 of the total – could boast bike commuting rates of 5% or more.

Cambridge, traditionally a cycle-friendly place, topped the league for bike commuting, with almost 30% of workers choosing two wheels, followed by Oxford (17%) and the somewhat divergent pairing of the Isles of Scilly and Hackney, in east London, both at 14%.

Rachel Bromley from the active travel campaign group Sustrans said the mixed picture showed the "haphazard approach" of many local authorities to cycling provision.

She said: "The public demand is there and many urban councils have made good progress in training and infrastructure as is shown by the outstanding urban cycling results. It shows when decision-makers put their minds into increasing cycling, real progress can be made."

British Cycling's campaigns manager, Martin Key, said the figures highlighted the positive impact that financial and political commitments can make to growing cycling numbers in cities. "Once again, the evidence is clear that sustained investment in cycling brings results for the cities that are willing to commit.

"More than two million people regularly cycle and our data shows that nearly two thirds of people want to cycle more if protected space is provided. That is why we are working to convince politicians and local authorities that reallocating existing funding to prioritise cycling is a no-brainer, not only for the nation's health but for our communities, environment and our economy."