The UFC was very busy in the month of March. Last month saw four UFC events, which featured Alexander Gustafsson proving himself to still be the number one contender at light heavyweight, a new welterweight champion be crowned, and MMA legend Dan Henderson snap a three-fight losing streak with a KO victory over Shogun Rua. The later match-up took place on March 23rd, and there hasn’t been a UFC event since.

The UFC has taken a short break from action, and will resume putting on fights next weekend when Antonio Minotauro Nogueira takes on Roy “Big Country” Nelson on April 11th at UFC Fight Night 39 in Abu Dhabi. Both men are coming off losses and are in need of a win to stay relevant in the heavyweight division. But more than that, with Nogueira nearly 38 years old, and another loss for Nelson would mark three straight, the loser of this fight may either be walking away from the UFC or the sport of MMA. With that said, this is an important fight for both fighters.

It’s also an interesting fight for the fans; the legendary Nogueira is a former champion and submission ace, while Nelson is the iron-chinned fan favorite with crazy knockout power in both hands. Here’s an analysis of the fight, and a prediction as to who should win:

UFC Fight Night 39: The Numbers

“Minotauro” Nogueira:

Record: 34-8-1

62- Percentage of wins by submission

Lands an average of 1.85 significant strikes per minute

42.08% (striking accuracy)

56.96% (striking defense)

1.33 (takedown average)

32.61% (takedown accuracy)

Roy Nelson:

Record: 20-9

65- percentage of wins by KO

32.55% (striking accuracy)

2.14 significant strikes landed per minute on average

57.69% (takedowns defended)

Zero- the number of times Nelson has been finished inside the UFC

Strengths and Weaknesses

Nogueira- Strengths

One thing Minotauro has over just about any heavyweight is experience. He is both a former Pride FC and UFC champion, and has faced the likes of Dan Henderson, Fedor Emelianenko, Randy Couture, Frank Mir, Cain Velasquez, and Fabricio Werdum, among others. With this experience, there’s not a lot Nelson is going to bring to the table come fight night that Nogueira hasn’t seen already. Nelson is an experienced fighter himself, however Nogueira will have the advantage here. Aside from that, Nogueira is one of the best submission artists in heavyweight and MMA history. Out of his 34 wins, he has finished 21 of them by way of submission, and he holds a fourth degree black belt in jiu-jitsu. Nelson is a black belt as well, but Nogueira is on another level, and has an advantage over anyone in the heavyweight division in jiu-jitsu not named Frank Mir or Fabricio Werdum.

Weaknesses

Unfortunately, the mentioned experience of Nogueira has also had some negative effects on him. In over 40 professional MMA fights, Nogueira has found himself in many wars, and has sustained a lot of damage. Before entering the UFC, Nogueira had never been finished in any of his four losses. Fast forward to present day, and he’s added four more losses to his resume during his time with the UFC. However, he’s been either knocked out or submitted in all four of those bouts. The countless battles over the years have taken their toll on Minotauro and he simply can’t take the same kind of punishment he used to be able to. In his fight with Nelson, he must avoid getting hit at all costs, because his now very questionable chin won’t be able to take one of Nelson’s bombs that we call fists.

Nelson- Strengths

Nelson is arguably one of the hardest hitters in the UFC today. In his six UFC victories, he has finished them all with strikes. If his fight with Nogueira stays on the feet, and they go blow for blow, Nelson should emerge victorious. The difference between the punching power of the two men is huge, and Nelson has the clear advantage here. Another thing that will aid Nelson if the fight stays on the feet is his granite chin. Junior dos Santos, who has knocked out current champion Cain Velasquez and could have the best boxing in MMA heavyweight history, tried for 15 minutes to put Nelson to sleep. He wasn’t succesful, and even though Nelson lost, he managed to take dos Santos to the judges scorecards, something few can do. If dos Santos can’t knock out Nelson, someone with far superior power and boxing technique than Nogueira, then that leads me to believe Nogueira doesn’t have a chance of doing so either. In Nelson’s five UFC losses, he has never been finished, and remains one of the most durable fighters in the sport. His ability to withstand punishment will be an advantage in this fight.

Weaknesses

Roy Nelson has been successful in MMA because he was born with natural talent and physical characteristics like power and an unbelievably durable chin. But those are the only reasons he’s been succesful. He is not a top contender based on his athleticism. Roy weighs roughly 250 pounds, yet he is only 6 feet tall. This means Nelson carries around a fairly large amount of excess body fat. His choice in life style has resulted in his physical build. If he changed his diet and worked hard, Nelson could easily make light heavyweight. However, he doesn’t seem interested and doing so, and must live with the consequences. One of those consequences is being out of shape. If Nelson can land one of his big shots early in the fight, then he’s usually the winner. But if the fight drags on into the later rounds, he has gassed on many different occasions. If Nogueira can avoid Nelson’s punches and wear Nelson out against the cage and drag the fight into later rounds, then Nelson’s gas tank should begin to empty like it has in the past. Nelson is at a disadvantage when it comes to cardio against Nogueira (and just about every other heavyweight).

Keys to Victory

Nogueira:

As said before, the biggest thing for Nogueira to do is avoid the big punches of Nelson. Minotauro has never been the greatest striker, but his boxing has improved in recent fights. He’ll need to utilize his jab to keep Nelson at bay and pick his shots, while avoiding getting into brawling exchanges. Also mentioned, Nogueira on paper is the better grappler, with better submissions. Does that mean he will submit Nelson? No, the chances of that are very unlikely. Nelson still does have a black belt, and has been in the cage with other skilled grapplers, and he’s never been submitted in his MMA career. Besides that, Nelson’s percentage of takedown’s defended is greater than Nogueira’s takedown accuracy, so Nogueira might not even get this fight down to the mat to begin with. However, there’s more to grappling than submissions and takedowns. If he can time the strikes of Nelson, Minotauro can clinch with him and press him against the cage. There, he can soften him up with strikes and wear Nelson down, and use Nelson’s lesser cardio against him. Against the cage he will also have greater chance of securing a takedown. The strategy for Nogueira is simple; he needs to use his jab to keep Nelson at a safe distance and frustrate him, so his already wild punches become even more reckless. With smart boxing, he must also combine clinching against the fence. The chances of him finishing Nelson are slim, but if he were to, it’d be by getting Nelson tired and doing so late in the fight. But he shouldn’t focus on a finish. When going for a finish, fighters often expose themselves and get reckless. Nogueira should be satisfied with a win alone, exciting or not. He may need to fight reserved and tatical, looking to outscore Nelson. His greatest chance of winning will be by earning a decision.

Nelson:

On April 11th, Roy Nelson needs to do one thing to win; land one of his big punches, and knock Nogueira out. Easier said then done, of course, but his best chances of winning are by knockout. Nogueira doesn’t do well when fighters pressure him. Both Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez earned knockout victories over “Big Nog” when they got off on their strikes first, and Nelson should follow their example. With more power and a better chin than Nogueira, Nelson can afford to get in exchanges with Nogueira. He’ll need to get in close and avoid the jab that Nogueira will surely be looking to use. But from close distances, Nelson should get the better of the exchanges each time. He’ll also needs to stay off the cage if Nogueira clinches with him there. He does not want to get stuck there with Nogueira leaning on him and have his energy drained. In summary, Nelson needs to avoid tie-ups against the cage, and needs to be the one controlling the center of the cage, pressuring Nogueira and landing strikes from a close distance to negate Nogueira’s jab. He can’t get wild, yet he does need to set an active pace so Nogueira does in fact feel pressured. Nelson will need to land one of these fight-ending shots early while he still has energy and his punches aren’t sloppy from exhaustion.

Predicted Result

Despite all of Nogueira’s experience in this sport and his accomplishments, I don’t see him winning next weekend. The story of this fight is simple; Nelson is a knockout artist, Nogueira is a submission specialist; Nogueira needs to get the fight to the ground to secure a submission, but will likely not be able to takedown Nelson; Nelson can knockout Nogueira, while Nogueira lacks the power and boxing skills to put away the very durable Nelson. Nogueira will try to stay on the outside and pick his shots, but Nelson will lunge forward with one of his big right hands and put the legendary Minotauro to sleep in early in the fight, likely retiring him in the process. Nelson wins by first round KO (punch).

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