Last week, I warned that my projections did not take public reactions to either nthe first Presidential debate or the improved unemployment rate into account. My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do and they paint a picture far less positive than last week’s. If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate. Especially because the most recent polls do not reflect public reactions to the Vice Presidential debate, these numbers are also subject to change.

President :

Even States State EV Obama Romney CO 9 47 47 FL 29 47 48 MI 16 48 45 NC 15 47 48 NH 4 46 50 NV 6 48 46 OH 18 48 45 VA 13 49 47 WI 10 50 47

This represents an electoral vote count of 227 290 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama. States with a combined electoral total of 63 votes, that Obama led by 5% or more one week ago, are now in doubt. Of the even states Obama leads in five (64 votes), Romney leads in three (40 votes). One is tied (9 votes)

The Senate :

Even Senate AZ Carmona – D 43 Flake – R 43 CT Murphy -D 48 McMahon – R 45 IN Donnelly -D 40 Mourdock – R 38 MA Warren – D 48 Brown – R 46 MT Tester – D 45 Rehberg – R 43 ND Heitkamp – D 47 Berg – R 47 NV Berkley – D 41 Heller – R 44 TN Clayton – D 48 Corker – R 51 VA Kaine – D 48 Allen – R 45

The current tally is:

Democrats: 46 Republicans: 43 Independent: 2 Undecided: 9

Of the even races, Democrats lead in six states, Republicans in one, and six are tied.

Map credit: 270 to Win

Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME). Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded. Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification. Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate. Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should. It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.

It still appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and Democrats will hold the Senate, but the races are closer than the done deal they appeared to be a week ago.

Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.