Chronic kidney failure, the disease diagnosed in Osama Bin Laden by 2001, carries ominous probability outcomes. Recent statistics list a 85.8 percent (ratio of deaths to incidence) with care in modern hospital/dialysis facilities. Hence, the probability of OBL's survival while living "on the run" without modern dialysis facilities for the past nine years is nothing short of a medical miracle. We must send our best physicians and scientists to discover the secrets known only to bin Laden's field hospital.

Clearly General McChrystal believes in medical miracles when he recently announced "I don't think that we can finally defeat al-Qaeda until he's (bin Laden) captured or killed." (Reuters, December 8, 2009)

In addition, according to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the United States does not know where the al-Qaida leader, Osama bin Laden, is hiding and has not had any good intelligence on his whereabouts in years. (ABC, This Week, December 5, 2009)

Now surely General McChrystal and Defense Secretary Gates are privy to medical information on OBL's medical condition, chronic renal (kidney) failure.

I checked the online version of the Merck Manual for the above probability statistics and current recommended procedures: dialysis followed by kidney transplantation. With both procedures, it is critical to have ongoing laboratory diagnostic assays to monitor creatine and other waste products. These are medically fragile people subject to heart failure caused by uremic poisoning.

Persons with uremic symptoms experience anorexia, vomiting, weight loss, pericarditis, pleuritis. Hyperkalemia (rising serum potassium levels) cause ECG changes indicative of heart failure and difficult to control metabolic acidosis.

This medical information makes one want to redirect General McChrystal's search -- look for burial grounds. In the meantime, check with nephrology experts for advice on the probability of whether or not, Osama bin Laden is dead or alive.

The scenario presented by General McChrystal brings to mind Michael Corleone's terse comment in the Godfather film: "Don't insult my intelligence."

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About author Sara S. DeHart, MSN, Ph.D. is Associate Professor Emeritus University of MN, School of Nursing. She also served as a Visiting Scholar University of WA. She currently resides in the Northwest and writes about various issues including public health and public policy. See Substituting deception for sound public health policy. In Jerry "Politex" Barrett (2004) "Big Bush Lies, "Riverwood Books (117-128). She may be contacted at Sara S. DeHart, MSN, Ph.D. is Associate Professor Emeritus University of MN, School of Nursing. She also served as a Visiting Scholar University of WA. She currently resides in the Northwest and writes about various issues including public health and public policy. See Substituting deception for sound public health policy. In Jerry "Politex" Barrett (2004) "Big Bush Lies, "Riverwood Books (117-128). She may be contacted at dehart.ss@frontier.com