Michigan football or Michigan State, who is better? It's an easy call

Jamie Samuelsen | Special to the Detroit Free Press

Jamie Samuelsen, co-host of the "Jamie and Stoney" show at 6 a.m. weekdays on WXYT-FM (97.1), blogs for freep.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Detroit Free Press nor its writers. You can reach him at jamsam22@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @jamiesamuelsen.

Both Michigan and Michigan State have an over/under of 9 wins, according to one Vegas sportsbook. Which team finishes with more Ws this season?

June 26th came and went without much fanfare.

I’m sure it’s a national day of celebration of some random food. It may be your birthday or your anniversary. But really, it should be recognized as the day when it’s officially okay to start wild speculation about college football.

June 26th is the day Phil Steele’s College Football Preview magazine goes on newstands at your local Kroger or Meijer.

This may not be the official bible of college football fans, but it’s the closest to it. It’s the first real sense I get each summer that football isn’t far away.

And it’s the first real sense about how my favorite team is going to do in the fall.

"Real" is the key word here. And "real" represents the difference between Michigan and Michigan State as we try to forecast what’s "really" going to happen in 2018.

On paper, both teams look strong.

They return very good defenses.

Vegas: Michigan has better odds than Michigan State to win Big Ten

They bring back almost all of their premier playmakers. Michigan State returns quarterback Brian Lewerke. Michigan brings in Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson.

MSU is looking to build on the success of last season’s 10-3 record that included a bowl win over Washington State. Michigan is trying to rebound from a disappointing 8-5 record that included a bowl loss to South Carolina.

And therein lies the difference. Michigan State is returning much of what made them so good in 2018. Michigan is returning much of what made them so frustrating in 2018.

Which one are you going with?

Give me Michigan State.

The Spartans offense returns almost fully intact. Lewerke welcomes back running back LJ Scott, and three starting wideouts (Felton Davis III, Darrell Stewart and Cody White). The Spartans also bring back four starters on an offensive line that improved as the season went along. They did lose Gerald Holmes to graduation and Madre London to a transfer, so Scott is the only returning back for Mark Dantonio, a coach who loves to give plenty of carries to plenty of different runners. But like most years, someone else will emerge (Connor Heyward?). They always do at MSU. It’s not quite Running Back U, but Dantonio has an amazing penchant for identifying who comes next in the Spartan running game.

Recent MSU football mailbags:

How do the Spartans match up with the Buckeyes?

Tracking Michigan State's breakout candidates

The defense lost senior captain Chris Frey but is stacked with standouts like Joe Bachie, Kenny Willekes and the secondary, which is as good as any in the conference and perhaps the nation. The youth and inexperience that was supposed to plague the Spartans in 2017 has quickly become seasoned and strong, burnished by hard fought wins at Michigan and home against Penn State. The question marks have become exclamation points, fueling some to say this is Dantonio’s most talented roster in his decade-plus in East Lansing.

The talent is bountiful in Ann Arbor as well. The question, as it has been since Jim Harbaugh’s arrival: Is there enough of it on offense?

Defensively, they’re stacked. Rashan Gary is an All-American and one of the best defensive players in the nation. Devin Bush Jr. is a returning All-American and Chase Winovich is a sack monster. The defense will be outstanding and will make life miserable for opposing offenses. Will this be a defense that’s finally coupled with a flashy offense or will this be a defense that must overcompensate for an offense that can’t get the job done?

Analysis: Michigan football's defense is championship caliber

Gone are Tim Drevno, Wilton Speight and John O’Korn. In is Jim McElwain and Patterson, who along with Harbaugh brings the most intrigue and hope for offensive fireworks. Patterson is an exceptional passer who turns the ball over too much. He was one of the top high school recruits in the nation and already is generating some Heisman buzz for the fall. The thought of an elite quarterback matching up with an elite quarterback coach in Harbaugh has Michigan fans champing at the bit, as they have been for each of the past three seasons.

Is this the year where it all clicks? Is this the year a healthy Tarik Black with Donovan Peoples-Jones, Chris Evans and Karan Higdon allow the offense to resemble those Harbaugh had at Stanford and with the San Francisco 49ers?

Perhaps it is. On paper, it should work. But it hasn’t yet and until it does, there will be as much skepticism as there is optimism. They also need heavy improvement from the offensive line which allowed three sacks per game last season and lost Mason Cole to the NFL.

Michigan football analysis:

If the QBs can be efficient, Michigan's offense can reignite

Shea Patterson is one guy; Michigan football needs more than that

Michigan roster challenge interesting motivator by Jim Harbaugh

The results for Harbaugh haven’t been there, yet. His record against his rivals is noted, both by him and by others. I also think 2016 is unfairly marked down as a disappointing season even though they were a play or two (and an inch or two) from playing for the Big Ten title. He hasn’t forgotten how to coach and those around him think he seems more positive and focused than he has in past seasons.

The difference between the two teams? MSU has made those extra plays and they’ve gotten those one or two inches.

That’s the difference between playing in Indianapolis in December and watching from home.

Until Michigan proves it can match the Spartans' feat, picking one team over the other — at least in the far off distance of July — is a rather easy call.

Analysis: Why Michigan and Michigan State are crushing it on the recruiting trail

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