TALLAHASSEE — The National Rifle Association, equipped with a vaunted political email list and support from passionate single-issue voters, is gearing up to take on Florida Gov. Rick Scott and GOP leaders as they tee up a rarity in Florida lawmaking: gun control legislation.

The central question for Republicans as the state’s legislative session enters its final weeks is whether the NRA, which opposes the GOP-written measures, will get rolled by a collection of lawmakers it helped get elected.


The Florida debate will be closely watched beyond Tallahassee, as President Donald Trump discusses various gun violence-related proposals, like arming teachers and raising the age to purchase weapons like the AR-15 from 18 to 21. The brewing fight was prompted by the Feb. 14 gunning down of 17 people at Parkland’s Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, the worst school shooting in Florida history, which prompted a wave of activism from the school’s students and put NRA-friendly Florida squarely in the middle of the national gun debate.

It’s an awkward spot for Scott and Republican leaders, who are now facing public pressure to push through proposals, unveiled last week, that could box in many of their own rank-and-file members in conservative districts chock full of NRA supporters, and in swing seats where every controversial vote matters.

“Absolutely,” said Marion Hammer, the NRA’s Florida lobbyist, when asked if she would fight to kill the bills. “I have no answer for why Republicans who profess to be strong Second Amendment advocates would abandon law-abiding gun owners to pass gun control to pretend they are doing something.”

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Among other things, the separate plans put forward by GOP leaders and Scott would increase the age to buy all guns to 21. The Legislature’s plan includes a three-day waiting period for military-style semi-automatic weapons like AR-15s. Scott opposes plans to arm trained school staff, which the NRA supports. Both proposals ban “bump stocks,” which allow semi-automatic weapons to mimic the firing speed of fully automatic weapons.

The NRA opposes each proposal, but it’s unclear if the organization has the juice needed to torpedo the leadership-driven bills.

“We don’t know yet,” said state House Majority Leader Ray Rodrigues (R-Estero) when asked if he knew how many of his Republican member would vote “no” on the bills. “We know we are not going to have everyone.”

It sets up new territory in Florida, where Republican leaders have long been in lockstep with the NRA.

“It’s the first time I’ve ever seen our leadership in a position that is contrary to the NRA,” said state Sen. Tom Lee, a veteran Brandon Republican and former Senate president.

In a lengthy interview, "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace pressed Scott on why he’s breaking with the NRA on parts of his plan to reform Florida’s gun laws and bolster security at schools given his A-plus rating with the powerful gun rights group.

“You have to weigh individual rights, which I clearly believe in, right? I believe in the Second Amendment,” Scott said. “But you also have to make sure you protect your, you know, your citizens, your kids. And so, you've got [to] weigh each of these things. ... I'm going to do what I can to make sure guns are not in the hands of the wrong people.”

“If you have a mental illness, you shouldn't have a gun. If you've threatened others or you threaten yourself, you shouldn't have a gun.

On the other side, many Democrats and Parkland students who have lobbied the Legislature want an outright ban on assault rifles, which GOP leaders said they don't support. There is an understanding from some in those groups that they won't get their desired outcome, but also an understanding of the unique place the Florida Legislature is in with just two weeks left in session.

"Truth be told, we are all in uncharted territory," said state Rep. Evan Jenne (D-Dania Beach). "The NRA has written every piece of gun legislation for damn near 25 years."

He said he is voting against the House's bill because it "puts more guns in schools."

Although NRA opponents often focus on the organization's campaign contributions to Republican members, much of its power is derived from its long membership rolls of so-called “super voters,” or those who vote in every election. NRA members often vote on gun issues alone, meaning the group can help shape election outcomes with the click of a button.

“Please EMAIL Governor Rick Scott, Senate President Joe Negron and House Speaker Richard Corcoran, incoming Senate President Bill Galvano and incoming House Speaker Jose Oliva IMMEDIATELY and tell them NO GUN CONTROL,” read an email sent Friday from Hammer to NRA members.

The “action alert” came under the headline, “Don’t Let Them Blame You For Parkland,” and highlights the sort of grass-roots efforts that make the group so politically influential.

“There is kind of a misconception nationally. The reason the NRA has influence is because their members vote,” said state Rep. J.W. Grant. “It’s not that Marion Hammer is good — she is a very effective lobbyist — but it comes with a different type of power.”

Incoming Senate President Bill Galvano, a Bradenton Republican who has led negotiations for his chamber, said he is aware that the NRA could come after Republicans who vote for a bill the group opposes, but said it’s a risk worth taking.

“There will be those who think we’re going too far and those who think we’re not going far enough,” Galvano said. “Certainly there may be an impact on the November elections, but that must take a back seat to doing what we can to prevent another school massacre.”

Many members interviewed by POLITICO said they were not yet sure if they will support the legislation, while many others did not return requests seeking comment. Through a spokesman, Corcoran said his only focus is “ensuring what happened last week never happens again,” but did not return follow-up questions about the NRA's opposition to his chamber’s bill. Senate President Joe Negron did not return a request seeking comment.

Those who said they were not clear how they would vote did say the NRA’s position on the bill is part of their calculus.

“The NRA means a lot to me,” said state Sen. Dennis Baxley, an Ocala Republican who has carried gun bills supported by the group. “Those members are constituents of mine. [Hammer's] concerns matter to me, but I’m too old to worry about the next election.”

State Rep. Jay Fant, a Jacksonville Republican also running for attorney general, has been one of the most vocal voices after the Parkland shooting arguing that the response should not be gun control. When asked Friday about his position on the new proposals, his campaign’s top political consultant, Melissa Stone, sent a statement saying the “constitutional infringements are obviously going to be a problem.”

The state House and Senate have had an icy relationship in recent years but held a joint press conference Friday when rolling out their post-Parkland proposals to deal with gun reform and spend roughly $400 million to boost school safety and mental health programs. It would generally be a clear sign for rank-and-file Republicans that the bill is a top-tier priority that they need to support. Guns are different, though, and members are not automatically falling in line.

“I would say that what happened in Parkland to those innocent school children is the greatest tragedy we encountered during session,” said Rodrigues, the House majority leader. “That’s why you’re seeing some of the things you’re seeing.”

He acknowledges the NRA’s influence on the process but does not know yet how it will impact that final weeks of session.

“I’m not ready to make a comment on that yet,” he said. “I really don’t know.”

Hammer said she is not dissuaded by some of the state’s most powerful Republicans pushing a bill she opposes.

“My job is to not talk about if we can beat it; my job is to work to do it,” she said.