Playoff Simulation: Who wins the championship?

John Ewing | Special for USA TODAY Sports

PredictionMachine.com's Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoff could look like through 50,000 simulations of Football Four's most recent four-team Playoff Projection, a bracket determined each week via a 16-person expert panel. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwing for more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections.

How this works:

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoff, if it were to go into effect this season.

Football Four Playoff Projection Simulation

In the first semifinal, Alabama, the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings, defeats Ohio State (assumes Braxton Miller plays). Ohio State's greatest strength on offense is its rushing game. The Buckeyes are sixth in the nation with 311 yards/game (third in rushing efficiency in our Power Rankings). The Tide is able to neutralize this strength with its run defense, which is first in defensive rush efficiency in the country. Alabama, led by A.J. McCarron, wins on average by more than a touchdown. (Note: This was also our original preseason projection for this season's BCS National Championship game.)

In the second semifinal, Oregon's run-happy offense squares off against Clemson's passing attack. Clemson does not have an answer defensively for Oregon, but the Ducks are able to slow down Tajh Boyd with their fifth-ranked pass defense. Oregon rushes to a win in a high-scoring affair. Also, though Clemson's résumé may look strong now, our Power Rankings only have the Tigers as the 12th-best team in the country.

After 50,000 simulations, the most likely National Champion is Oregon. Oregon wins 34.0% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely National Championship game, Oregon defeats Alabama 51.9% of the time by an average score of 34-33. Although Alabama has a slight edge in our Power Rankings, Oregon wins the matchup on a neutral field a little more often than not. As Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel has clearly shown, this Alabama team is susceptible to teams that run at a high tempo and have playmakers at every offensive and defensive level.

Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket:

Semifinals

1 seed Alabama vs. 4 seed Ohio State

Alabama wins 63.6% of the time by an average score of 32-23.

2 seed Oregon vs. 3 seed Clemson

Oregon wins 64.0% of the time by an average score of 42-31.

National Championship

Alabama vs. Oregon

Oregon wins 51.9% of the time by an average score of 34-33.

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PredictionMachine.com's Playoffs

Now, what would the playoffs look like based on PredictionMachine.com's Power Rankings?

First, the bracket would look a little different, with Texas A&M and Georgia replacing Ohio State and Clemson. Although this is not likely to occur due to the fact that three of these teams are in the same conference, we actually rank six of the top seven teams in the country as hailing from the SEC. At least two, if not three or more, teams from the SEC would deserve to make a college football playoff like this.

Second, the semifinal matchups are closer. Alabama no longer wins by more than a touchdown and although Oregon's scoring increases, it does not win by as much, either. In the end, Oregon still faces Alabama in the most likely championship game, winning it all 51.9% of the time by an average score of 34-33.

Semifinals

1 seed Alabama vs. 4 seed Georgia

Alabama wins 56.6% of the time by an average score of 37-32.

2 seed Oregon vs. 3 seed Texas A&M

Oregon wins 60.1% of the time by an average score of 47-38.

National Championship

Alabama vs. Oregon

Oregon wins 51.9% of the time by an average score of 34-33.

Football Four is on Twitter @TheFootballFour. Prediction Machine is on Twitter @PredictMachine.