We know more or less what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look like this season, barring a few inevitable last-minute signings and a few injuries that always pop up. Which means we have about as good of a view of their performance this season as we’ll have until they actually take the field.

In light of that, betting odds are interesting to look at. And Bovada has put the Bucs’ over/under at 8.5 wins this season—a step down from their 9-7 record last year, and something that would be a massive disappointment to both the fans and the team.

Of course, these betting odds aren’t perfectly reliable. They’re a reflection of what Bovada expects the betting market to look like. In that sense it’s a wisdom of crowds model—which has advantages, and disadvantages. It’s good at filtering out individual biases, but vulnerable to widely-shared biases. Like, you know, a widely-shared conviction that the Bucs can’t win things because they haven’t in a decade.

So if these odds can’t be completely trusted, how many games do you think the Bucs will win?