kouroux said: ffs I hate it when people over complicate football with stats and graphs Click to expand...

Interval Level said: Your method is no less arbitrary than the actual storey time. Just because more maths has gone into it doesn't mean its more accurate. Click to expand...

sincher said: The storey system is actually better, because it is aimed at what it takes to win the league and how far a team is off that. For all the maths, the 'expected points' for united and any other top team is way more than the model. It also appears to account better for the big difference between home and away. Click to expand...

BazzaBear said: I don't see any explanation for how you have decided the 'expected' points against any particular opponent.



Teams playing Everton away can expect an average of 0.64 points. Why? According to what evidence?



Unless you can tell us where these pars come from (unless I've missed it in my relatively quick scan of your posts) then it's absolutely no less arbitrary than Pete's version was. More complicated doesn't equal more accurate, or more credible. Click to expand...

Brosstan said: How are the expected points averages for each team home and away calculated? Are they continuously upgraded as the season goes on, meaning for instance that our -0.64 against Everton at Goodison will go down in value if Everton wins more matches at Goodison and improve their expected point average at home? Or is it calculated using last season's results? The former would certainly be the better method.



If you use the latter, how are the bottom teams calculated? If you use the former, does this mean that this method, unlike original storeytime, doesnt really tell us anything untill every team has played a good amount of matches to build up reliable point averages?



I like it btw. Good work. Click to expand...

ciderman9000000 said: After the Norwich game City were on +12.67pts, they played Stoke next, expected 2pts and won 3pts, giving them them a +1pt difference; yet their running total as you've recorded it incorrectly remains at +12.67pts. Click to expand...

ffs I hate it when people post reactionary nonsense like this. It's not as if I'm saying X pass completion percentage + Y tackles made = Z rating for player. The concept is simple. Each team plays the same fixtures of the course of a season but they don't play them in the same order, which means the table will be misleading as some teams have played a harder set of matches at each point in the table. This adjusts for that.Of course it is less arbitrary. The actual storey time just said "these 5 teams are bottom" or "you must win all home matches" or whatever. Why are those 5 teams bottom? Why are there 5 teams in the bottom group? Etc.My numbers used. What has actually happened is that opponents playing at Madejski Stadium have averaged 1.40 points and teams hosting Newcastle have averaged 2.07 points. I'm using what actually happened as the starting point, not an arbitrary group that is decided at the beginning of the season.What it takes to win the league is having more points that your rivals. The calculations are for an average opponent so when I calculate a match hosting Wigan, Manchester United and Chelsea both get 1.86 points. Since I have actual data for home and away, I'm not sure how it could be better at accounting for that.This was explained in the opening posts but I'll explain it again.Everton at home have 7 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss. That's ((7*0)+(6*1)+(1*3))/14 = 0.64. That's the evidence. Teams playing Everton away have averaged 0.64 points so that is the expected points for that fixture.My plan was to do it every month or so. At the beginning of the season, I would use last year's results for a month or two until we've got enough data.You are correct that this would be less informative at the beginning of the season, but after a decent chunk of data, this becomes far more accurate.Fixed. Moves them up 1.00.