EARLY VOTING NUMBERS SHIFT AHEAD OF BIG DAY

Republicans took the lead in early voting in Colorado at the end of the day Friday and held the advantage through the weekend despite robust Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts.

The latest early voting numbers released Monday morning show registered Republicans cast 652,380 ballots compared to 645,020 registered Democrats — a 7,360 vote GOP advantage. The breakdown looks like this: 35.2 percent Republican, 34.8 percent Democrat and 28.5 percent unaffiliated.

It’s worth noting that not all Republicans are voting for GOP nominee Donald Trump — just as not all Democrats are supporting party nominee Hillary Clinton. But the early voting is a potential sign of party organization and voter enthusiasm.

Democrats held the early vote advantage through Thursday, breaking with the trends from 2014 that saw Republicans dominate returns in the first mail-ballot statewide election. Now with the parties essentially tied, the direction of the race once again hinges on unaffiliated voters — the largest bloc in Colorado — who swing elections.

See a breakdown of the early vote in Colorado with The Denver Post’s ballot tracker.

Welcome to this special edition of the Purple State Project Memo — the must-read guide to the 2016 election in Colorado. Below you’ll find breaking news, analysis and reporting about the presidential election, the U.S. Senate race and other campaign news from this battleground political state.

The weekly newsletter is part of The Denver Post’s Purple State Project, an effort to add explanatory, digital-minded political stories to the newspaper’s campaign coverage. Check out other Purple State Project stories at the new site.

Send news tips and political links to political reporter John Frank.

BULLETIN — THE TOP 10 RACES TO WATCH IN COLORADO — A review of election data by The Denver Post and a survey of more than 25 top political observers generated the top races in Colorado. No. 1 on the list is the 6th Congressional District contest between Mike Coffman and Morgan Carroll. The last place race? Check it out here.

Related — TOP 10 STORYLINES FOR ELECTION DAY IN COLORADO: Get smart for those election night parties. Here’s what the experts are watching.

SETTING THE BAR: Ahead of Tuesday, here’s a look at how Colorado voted in the last five presidential elections.

2012: Democrat Barack Obama won with 51.5 percent to 46.1 percent for Republican Mitt Romney. Margin: D+5.4

2008: Democrat Barack Obama won with 52.3 percent to 44.3 percent for Republican John McCain. Margin: D+8.9

2004: Republican George W. Bush won with 51.3 percent to 46.7 percent for Democrat John Kerry. Margin: R+4.64

2000: Republican George W. Bush won with 50.1 percent to 41.8 percent for Democrat Al Gore. Margin: R+8.2

1996: Republican Bob Dole won with 44.6 percent to 43.3 percent for Democrat Bill Clinton. Margin: R+1.3

THE STATE OF THE RACE — From today’s New York Times takeout on Donald Trump’s campaign:

“Over a cheeseburger, fried calamari and an “Ivanka Salad” at the Trump Grill in the basement of Trump Tower last week, several aides flipped open a laptop and loaded the popular website 270towin.com, which allows users to create their own winning electoral maps. For 10 minutes, they clicked through the country, putting Democratic-leaning states won by Mr. Obama four years ago, like New Mexico and Colorado, into Mr. Trump’s column.” Read more here.

WHY DEMOCRATS FEEL GOOD ABOUT COLORADO IN 5 GRAPHICS: The Democratic-leaning Project New America released an analysis of Colorado’s voters that is sure to make allies breathe a sigh of relief. See the demographic trends here in five graphics.

#COPOLITICS CALENDAR: The final push will see former Vice President Al Gore campaigning in Colorado and talking about climate change in events in Boulder and Lakewood on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

In the Senate race, Michael Bennet will join Gore in Boulder. Darryl Glenn has not announced any public campaign events.

IT’S OFFICIAL — President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will not campaign in Colorado in 2016. The final day’s schedule is set and neither will make a trip to the state that launched their eight years in the White House.

WHAT YOU MISSED SATURDAY NIGHT: Donald Trump at a nighttime rally in Denver:

“If she were to win, it would be an unprecedented constitutional crisis,” said Trump, who warned a Clinton White House could face a felony indictment because of how she handled e-mails as U.S. Secretary of State. “Her current scandals and controversies will continue throughout her presidency.” Read more here.

COLORADO’s U.S. SENATE RACE —

MORE MICHAEL BENNET: U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet recently sat down with The Denver Post for a wide-ranging interview. (See more here on his relationship with Hillary Clinton and thoughts on Donald Trump’s behavior towards women.)

Here’s where he stands on an assortment of issues:

On transferring prisoners from Guantanamo Bay: “We send them to military prisons,” Bennet said. “We can send them to military prisons here, or overseas.”

Bennet said it costs $8 million a year to house a prisoner at Guantanamo.

On Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland’s chances for appointment in the lame-duck session: “I think if Democrats win a majority in the Senate, I’d be shocked not to see him come up in the lame duck,” Bennet said. Asked whether he will support him, Bennet said: “Unless there’s something that I learn in the hearings that changes my mind, yes,” he said. “And I would find it shocking beyond all belief that something would come up.”

On whether he will seek a leadership role if Democrats win the chamber: “I don’t know. We are going to have to see what happens, how everything sort of falls out.”

“I think it would be useful for Colorado to have representation on the Armed Services committee,” he added. “We don’t have a person on there now. But I have absolutely no idea whether that is possible, we will just have to see.”

On whether he’s interested in a potential Clinton administration post: “No,” he said, adding: “I will serve my six-year term.”

On what needs to change in the “Gang of Eight” immigration bill before approving it again: “We spent a lot of money on border security in the underlying bill, and it was amended to add even more money,” he said. “It got up to a level of whether we should be asking ourselves whether all that money will be spent well or wisely.” Bennet suggested possibly spending it to “improve border crossings, so goods can get through more quickly.”

FOLLOW THE MONEY — Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Darryl Glenn continue to raise big dollars ahead of Election Day.

Bennet reported raising $541,000 from Oct. 1 to Oct. 19 and spent another $815,000. He entered the final weeks of the campaign with $3.3 million on hand. His total receipts this election cycle now total roughly $15 million, but it’s likely much more.

Glenn raised $464,000 and spent $1.3 million in the same period. He had $1 million on hand for the final push. The candidate also reported another $44,000 since then in big-dollar donations, including from prominent GOP donor Paul Singer and the Coors family.

Glenn’s expenses show that his money once again went to his family, which is unusual. His fiancee, Jane Northrup, received $5,000, and his daughter received $2,000 for her work on the campaign. Glenn received more than $2,500 in mileage reimbursements. But the bulk of his money went to direct mail — close to $500,000 — and another $547,000 went to buy television ads.

It’s still not clear if Glenn will pay the volunteer staffers who helped him win the primary. He told Roll Call in June that he may pay them if he made the general election. “We will revisit that subject,” he told Roll Call. “Everything is based on the amount of money that comes in.”

Bennet spent more than $500,000 on additional TV commercials in the first two weeks of October. Since the report, he’s raised another $107,600 in large contributions, including $2,500 from the National Cannabis Industry Association.

COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE FACING QUESTIONS: The New York Times reported on how special interests are courting secretaries of state just as those offices consider ballot initiatives affecting the donors.

From the story: Secretaries of state from Washington, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada — all Republicans — participated in closed-door meetings in May with representatives from Reynolds American, the nation’s second-largest tobacco company; the National Restaurant Association; and the National Rifle Association, while ballot initiative signatures in those states were still being collected, documents obtained through open records requests show. Read the full story here.

Story tip — LATINA LEADERSHIP: If Democrats take the state House and the state Senate, Colorado is likely to become the first state in the nation to have a Latina at the helm of both chambers at the same time. If Democrats win, Rep. Crisanta Duran of Denver is expected to become House Speaker and Sen. Lucia Guzman of Denver is expected to become Senate President.

QUOTE OF THE DAY —

“I’m feeling like an alien in my own culture. I absolutely cannot figure out what’s going on. It just absolutely blows me away.”

— Former U.S. Rep. Pat Schroeder, the first woman to represent Colorado in Congress, on the 2016 election. See a full Q+A here.

Quick Hits

+ DID DEMOCRATS TAKE COLORADO FOR GRANTED? The Trump campaign is emphasizing Colorado as evidenced by the candidate’s rally Saturday in Denver — his third visit in eight days to the state. Republicans also are outspending Democrats when it comes to television advertising in the state, according to media trackers, which runs counter to most media markets. Read more here.

+ BALLOT SELFIES ALLOWED: A federal judge’s ruling on Friday paved the way for so-called ballot selfies in Colorado this election. Read more here.

+ BERNIE SANDERS’ CLOSING MESSAGE: “You (younger people) are the future of this country,” Sanders said. “If you are prepared to exercise your Democratic rights, not just by voting, but standing up for social, economic and environmental justice, you can change the world.” Read more here.

+ LIBERTARIAN: A confident and defiant Gary Johnson told an exuberant crowd Sunday in Lakewood that he is a candidate voters can vote for, not against. Read more here.

+ RUDY GIULIANI IN DENVER: See an interview here.

+ ELECTION DAY: What Colorado officials are doing to keep polling places safe. Read more here.

What We’re Reading

BILL CLINTON IN COLORADO AND HIS WIFE’S SHADOW: Like so many white Americans who adored Mr. Clinton but despise his wife, Ms. Gordon and her husband have already cast their ballots for Mr. Trump. “I don’t trust Hillary,” said Ms. Gordon, 57, who added that she resented illegal immigrants because she went through a long and expensive naturalization process. Her husband, John, 62, an engineer, added that “there’ll be more jobs” with Mr. Trump in charge. The New York Times.

LATINO VOTER SURGE RATTLES TRUMP CAMPAIGN: Hispanic voters could be poised to deliver a historic rebuke to Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Early-vote statistics from battleground states with large Hispanic populations show record turnout among a bloc that has voted at a lower rate than whites or blacks in past elections. If, as some polls suggest, Hispanic voters are supporting Hillary Clinton by blowout margins, these numbers could sink Trump in a handful of states that are essential to his path to 270 electoral votes. Politico.

ALL THE COLORADO POLITICS YOU NEED: In one place.