If Rob Ford hopes to gain votes by appearing homophobic, Toronto’s mayor is in for a surprise come election day, says Darrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

Throughout his 14 years at city hall, Ford has been dogged by accusations of homophobia. But up until recently, he’s always seemed to make efforts not push too far.

That changed in the past seven days — first due to his vow never to attend the Pride parade and then after he tried to remove a rainbow flag flying outside city hall. That has led to speculation Ford is deliberately trying to woo socially conservative voters by distinguishing himself from other candidates who are merely fiscal conservatives.

Several former members of Ford’s staff say the mayor spoke openly about the fact that opposing same-sex marriage was important for his base.

If this is the strategy, Bricker warns it’s going to backfire.

“When you take a look at Canadian values these days the thing that is really rising, in terms of defining what a Canadian is, is your degree of tolerance. It’s not specifically related to the LGBT community. It’s everyone who is not part of what Canada used to be — white Anglo-Saxon Protestant,” said Bricker.

“If you’re somebody in this country who is anti-Semitic or racist or homophobic, if you have hate in your heart in any way, you’re going to be speaking to a smaller audience.”

Polling shows that suburban conservative voters are decided on this issue, in that it’s a non-issue, Bricker said, adding that, at best, Ford is speaking to less than 20 percent of Toronto’s population.

Barry Watson, CEO of Environics Research Group, said that over the past decade, Torontonians have become increasingly supportive of all forms of social diversity, including sexual orientation.

“In fact, Toronto residents are much more likely than other Canadians to embrace learning from those who are different from them,” he said. “Our research suggests that newcomers, too, appreciate the diversity and freedom to live life as you please in Toronto. And their appreciation of that pluralism grows as they spend more time in Canada.”

But Michael Bosia, an associate professor at Saint Michael’s College in Vermont who has studied the politics of homophobia, warns that Canadians shouldn’t be complacent about Ford’s behaviour just because the majority doesn’t share the sentiment.

“There’s no clear trajectory in history. We can’t say that because Canada is so much better than it has been in the past that there’s no opportunity in the future for reversals or localized reversal,” Bosia said.

He pointed to the recent debate in France about same-sex marriage, where it initially looked as if marriage equality legislation would sail to victory amidst mass public support. But now opinion polls show positive attitudes toward same-sex marriage dropping thanks to a prolonged period of divisive national debate.

Ford’s history with the gay community has been strained for much of his tenure at city hall.

In 2003, he declared on the floor of council, “I believe in Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve.” In 2005, he said of transgendered people: “I don’t understand a transgender. I don’t understand: is it a guy dressed up like a girl or a girl dressed up like a guy?” And most infamously in 2006, Ford told city council that “If you’re not doing needles and you’re not gay, you won’t get AIDS probably.”

But up until last week, Ford has always seemed reluctant to appear overtly homophobic.

During the 2010 election, when the Ford camp took flak for endorsing fundamentalist Christian Wendell Brereton for city council — on his website, the pastor wrote that same-sex marriage would “dismantle” democratic civilization — Ford immediately back-tracked. He said that while on one hand he believes in “traditional” marriage, he isn’t concerned about what people do in their “private” lives.

As mayor, Ford has been criticized for not attending the annual Pride festival, especially the parade. He’s always suggested the reason is due to scheduling; Pride conflicts with his annual family trip to the cottage.

But then last week Ford indicated that his absence was preference, not timing. “I’m not going to change the way I am” he said.

On Friday, Ford again made headlines when he asked city manager Joe Pennachetti to take down a rainbow flag that had been raised outside city hall in solidarity with gay athletes competing at the Olympics in Sochi. In apparent protest, Ford taped a Canadian flag to the window of his office, which overlooks Nathan Phillips Square.

Councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam said Ford’s actions are “hate-baiting” and bringing bigotry to the mainstream. Councillor John Parker said there are only two people who have an issue with the rainbow flag these days, “Vladimir Putin and Rob Ford.”

Neil Thomlinson, a professor of urban politics at Ryerson University, agrees with Bricker that the segment of the population Ford appears to be going after is quite small, but he suspects it’s larger than surveys suggest.

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“On these kinds of issues I think it’s hard to trust polls. No one is going to say to a pollster ‘Yes, I’m homophobic.” I think the public is not as tolerant as you might think,” he said.

The fact is, Thomlinson said, the tactic could score him some extra support on the right, or at the least solidify his base. Most of the city’s gay community isn’t likely to support him anyway, given his previous behaviour, Thomlinson said, noting that Ford uttered a gay slur in the infamous crack video viewed by two Star reporters.

“He’s got nothing to lose, is the bottom line, and he does have something to gain.”