Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in an ascending and a descending channel simultaneously. It points to two possibilities. Either the price will break out of the descending triangle and continue upwards towards the top of the ascending channel or the price will keep moving down the descending channel and eventually break the ascending channel. BTC/USD has already faced a strong rejection at the top of the descending channel and is now awaiting its next decisive move. If the price falls significantly, it could break the long ascending channel and Bitcoin (BTC) will be all set to fall to $6,000 and then eventually below it. That being said, I do not see that happening just yet. The most probable scenario is that the price will break past the descending channel and climb towards $9,500.

Bitcoin (BTC) may not end up testing the top of this channel but it will test the 38.2% fib retracement from all-time high. A decisive breakout above or below the 38.2% fib retracement level will determine Bitcoin (BTC)’s direction for the months and years ahead. The next few weeks and months are therefore very important for Bitcoin (BTC) as they will determine the long term outlook of Bitcoin (BTC). Recently, Willy Woo, a renowned Bitcoin (BTC) bull said that the market price of Bitcoin (BTC) has outstripped organic investor flow. He further said that never before have seen a divergence so early in the bull market. This is a classic example of having the data but differing in your approach to analyzing that data. Willy Woo and many like him see such indicators and they take it as a sign of unprecedented levels of bullish mania in the market. In other words, to put it plainly, they think this time it is different.

One of the biggest mistakes most investors make is to think, “This time it will be different”. Let us expand on this further. Most of us saw or read about how the stock market crashed after the dot com bubble popped. Now, this should have been a warning to those thinking “This time it will be different” with Bitcoin (BTC). As we all saw, it was not different this time. The exact same thing happened and the bubble popped over and over again after every hype cycle.

The ongoing cycle is a longer cycle than previous cycles which is why the crash was more noticeable. It will be even more noticeable during the next hype cycle which will be a lot longer than the ongoing cycle. The daily chart for BTCUSDShorts shows that the bears have almost experienced maximum pain and their good days are about to begin. It is very tempting to think that we are in the 2015 part of the last cycle, just weeks away from the next bull run. However, ground reality points to the contrary. We are way too far from a bull market just yet. I think we could see a rally towards $10,000 but I don’t think BTC/USD has even capitulated just yet.