The Baltimore Ravens’ offense was dreadful for half of this season but was carried on the back of running back Alex Collins to better results. It’s precisely why I think Collins will eventually cost big bucks to retain.

Collins is an exclusive-rights restricted free agent in 2018. What that means is that once tendered by Baltimore, he can only negotiate with Baltimore. Typically, these guys are handed cheap one-year deals and then maybe given long-term deals later. But the Ravens shouldn’t expect Collins to remain that cheap forever and betting against it isn’t that wise.

Collins’ path to the Ravens this season was winding. He was cut by the Seattle Seahawks, with whom he saw limited action in 11 games last season, and then had to be upgraded from Baltimore’s practice squad to the active roster for Week 2. Collins finished with 973 yards and six touchdowns on the ground along with another 187 yards through the air. He ran with power, patience and speed typical of running backs who go on have solid careers.

His 4.6 yard-per-carry average was among the highest in the NFL. Keep in mind that Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley finished with a 4.7 average this season — and he is on the short list of NFL MVP candidates.

In fact, when we extend Collins’ season to a full 16 games as a starter, Collins would have been around 283 carries for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. Total combined, Collins likely would have finished around 1,546 total yards from scrimmage. And keep in mind that he split time with Javorius Allen for most of the season and had some of his touchdowns poached.

Here’s a rundown of what those types of numbers earn on the free agent market — look no further than players signed in the last two years:

Player name Team Average salary 2017 rushing yards 2017 yards-per-carry 2017 TDs Devonta Freeman Atlanta Falcons $8.25M 865 4.4 7 Jonathan Stewart Carolina Panthers $8.00M 680 3.4 6 LeSean McCoy Buffalo Bills $8.00M 1,138 4.0 6 Doug Martin Tampa Bay Buccaneers $7.15M 406 2.9 3 Lamar Miller Houston Texans $6.50M 888 3.7 3

The only player who compares favorably to Collins is McCoy, and that’s primarily thanks to the damage he does as a receiver. Meanwhile, these are all some of the highest-paid running backs in the league right now.

The exclusive-right deal will allow Baltimore to see if Collins really is the right guy for the job. It will then lead to an RFA tag after 2018 that is again a one-year deal at significantly less money than he’s worth. Don’t be that shocked if Collins is a little upset at that point, playing on a one-year deal yet again that offers no guarantees.

Even if Baltimore doesn’t see Collins hold out at all, they’ll be faced with the prospect of him heading to the open market. Given the contracts above, it’s clear that Collins would garner big money if he continues his production level. If the Ravens wanted to keep that production, which they absolutely should, they’ll have to cost up quite a lot to retain Collins.

If they don’t pay attention to it now, it’ll come back and haunt them later. They’ll either have to let him walk because they don’t have the cap space or push themselves up against the limit to keep a talented guy on the roster. Being smart about it now will save themselves trouble down the road.