Twenty months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government assumed office, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) remains India’s most popular political alliance, notwithstanding the flak it has drawn periodically, according to the findings of a new survey.

Even with some erosion of its support base, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA is likely to be voted back to power with 301 seats in the Lok Sabha if polls are “held tomorrow", according to the ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll released on Tuesday.

A party or coalition needs 272 seats in the Lok Sabha to cross the halfway mark.

The NDA was sworn in on 26 May 2014 after it clinched 339 seats in the 16th general election, unseating the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) that won back-to-back elections in 2004 and 2009.

The BJP alone won 282 seats, becoming the first party in 30 years to get a majority on its own. The Congress was reduced to 44 seats—its worst electoral performance ever.

According to the ABP-Nielsen poll, if a general election is held now, the BJP would get 43% vote share and the Congress 14%. The BJP had 31.34% vote share and the Congress 19.52% in the 2014 general election.

The opinion poll was carried out over 8-13 January, covering 16,732 respondents across 109 parliamentary constituencies in 19 states.

According to the poll, the respondents gave higher ratings to Modi as the prime minister than they did to the government.

“As per the poll, the performance of Narendra Modi as PM of India has been rated as above average, with 54% of the respondents rating the performance as very good or good... Performance of BJP-led NDA government has been rated as above average, with 46% respondents rating the performance as very good or good," a statement by ABP News said.

Soon after being voted to power, the NDA expanded its political footprint by forming government in the states of Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. Last year, however, the BJP suffered humiliating defeats in the assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar.

Some critics have attacked the government over a perceived increase in intolerance towards minorities that led some writers and academics to return awards they had been given by state-backed institutions. The perception gained ground because of the controversial statements of so-called fringe elements associated with the Hindu right wing.

Shrikant Sharma, national secretary of the BJP, said, “In the last 20 months, the credibility of the government has increased. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign policy has been successful. Government has a zero tolerance policy on terrorism. All policy decisions taken by the government are to eradicate poverty. Social security is the most important agenda of the NDA."

Predictably, Congress politicians downplayed the findings of the poll.

“We have little faith in these opinion polls. None of the surveys had suggested UPA will win Bihar or AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) will win Delhi," said a senior Lok Sabha member from the Congress on condition of anonymity.

The opinion poll also found Modi remains the most popular national leader with 58% support. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi was a distant second with 11% support.

On the economy, 48% of respondents said it had improved during Modi’s tenure; 41% disagreed.

The poll found respondents to be critical of government measures to control inflation, which has eased in recent months, according to official price indices. Fifty-two percent respondents didn’t agree inflation had been controlled; 42% said it had been reined in.

Fifty-three percent supported the PM’s initiative to visit Pakistan and revive talks; 35% opposed it. “Narendra Modi has earned a national reputation. I think people by and large are watching the central government and are convinced about the sincerity of Modi and the fact that the government is running smoothly without any corruption cases. I think this survey captures the sentiments of the people," said A.K. Verma, a Kanpur-based political analyst who is also Uttar Pradesh state coordinator of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

“Political support remains high for NDA because there is no other choice. UPA is discredited on all accounts, whether it is the leadership crisis within the Congress or disruption in Parliament," he added.

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