It’s Week 5! You’re looking at the rankings and the articles, and you don’t know what to do. Well, I can’t give you that sweet insider data. But I can tell you the players that the top fantasy experts feel are going to do significantly better or worse than what most are predicting.

I took the rankings for this week by the 20 experts that have been the most accurate in their rankings this year. Then I compared those rankings to the default ECR, and I told my computer to tell me where the top experts deviate from the pack. It’s only been four weeks so far, but in those crazy four weeks, these 20 experts somehow got the closest to predicting the future. I assume they know something we don’t, so pay attention to what they say. You should use these numbers as an indicator that you should look closer at a player, the matchup and other factors, but don’t treat them as your gospel. A negative rank spread indicates that our top experts consider the player to be underrated, while a positive number signals an overrated player. The higher/lower the number, the more overrated/underrated the player is.

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Quarterbacks

Out of the default ECR’s top 20 quarterbacks, here’s three players with the most positive rank spreads, and three players with the most negative rank spreads.

Top Experts Like Them More

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Michael Vick PIT at SD 11 28 19.08 2.95 12 21 17.10 2.14 -1.98 Alex Smith KC vs. CHI 7 21 13.70 2.81 7 15 11.80 2.25 -1.90 Russell Wilson SEA at CIN 3 19 8.80 2.82 4 10 7.25 2.07 -1.55

As a generally risk-averse fantasy player, I tend to think that there can be no expert when it comes to Vick, and I wouldn’t play him even though the experts think he’s highly underrated. Also they still only put him at an average rank of 17, so it’s probably not that tough of a decision. Then again, there is the “Law of Vick Relativity,” which states if Vick is on your bench, he’s going to get 30 points.

Alex Smith looks underrated, and he’s sitting right on the bubble from an average rank of 13.7 from the default ECR and 11.8 from the top experts. If you’re like me, and you’re without a solid QB after drafting Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo, Alex Smith might be worth considering this week.

Top Experts Like Them Less

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Jay Cutler CHI at KC 4 28 14.53 3.26 12 23 16.70 2.69 2.17 Andy Dalton CIN vs. SEA 6 28 13.92 3.38 9 25 15.20 3.31 1.28 Drew Brees NO at PHI 3 17 7.33 2.64 3 17 8.50 3.04 1.17

Jay Cutler is looking fairly overrated. The actually relevant player here is Drew Brees, who top experts are rating a bit worse than the default ECR.

Running Backs

Out of the default ECR’s top 50 running backs, here’s five players with the most positive rank spreads and five players with the most negative rank spreads.

Top Experts Like Them More

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Ameer Abdullah DET vs. ARI 16 38 27.05 4.05 16 29 24.65 3.26 -2.40 Andre Williams NYG vs. SF 19 53 42.37 5.76 29 49 40.26 4.97 -2.11 Karlos Williams BUF at TEN 6 64 20.94 12.17 7 36 19.08 8.43 -1.85 Theo Riddick DET vs. ARI 35 67 48.51 5.37 39 57 46.76 4.82 -1.75 DeMarco Murray PHI vs. NO 7 37 19.76 5.79 9 26 18.15 4.63 -1.61

Ameer Abdullah and DeMarco Murray are all looking fairly underrated and could be worth a second look for your flex spot or a low-end RB2. Karlos Williams has been ruled out.

Top Experts Like Them Less

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Chris Thompson WAS at ATL 15 59 44.39 7.51 34 56 46.21 5.57 1.83 Thomas Rawls SEA at CIN 16 68 42.34 7.98 22 68 44.53 9.10 2.19 Marshawn Lynch SEA at CIN 4 70 13.71 7.82 9 70 16.05 12.93 2.34 Jeremy Hill CIN vs. SEA 8 32 17.08 4.20 11 31 19.55 4.36 2.47 David Johnson ARI at DET 25 63 43.58 6.01 25 60 46.24 7.53 2.66

Marshawn Lynch has been ruled out.

Wide Receivers

Out of the default ECR’s top 50 wide receivers, here’s five players with the most positive rank spreads, and five players with the most negative rank spreads.

Top Experts Like Them More



Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Range Michael Floyd ARI at DET 27 65 44.74 5.55 37 50 42.60 4.24 -2.14 Marques Colston NO at PHI 38 70 49.84 4.73 40 53 48.05 3.53 -1.79 Doug Baldwin SEA at CIN 28 57 39.21 4.28 31 43 37.70 2.51 -1.51 Michael Crabtree OAK vs. DEN 22 53 36.02 5.43 26 44 34.60 4.62 -1.42 Travis Benjamin CLE at BAL 17 50 34.26 6.61 19 38 32.85 4.54 -1.41

Top Experts Like Them Less



Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Steve Johnson SD vs. PIT 24 87 41.56 9.00 38 57 47.00 4.93 5.44 Martavis Bryant PIT at SD 19 61 34.02 6.25 31 51 37.45 4.82 3.43 Ty Montgomery GB vs. STL 34 74 49.99 6.30 42 69 53.05 5.65 3.06 Cole Beasley DAL vs. NE 28 74 48.72 5.43 44 59 50.60 4.33 1.88 Alshon Jeffery CHI at KC 9 44 21.58 6.81 11 38 23.18 7.18 1.59

Martavis Bryant looks very overrated. Alshon Jeffery is a bit overrated as well, though his rank spread is less than half that of Bryant.

Tight Ends

Out of the default ECR’s top 20 tight ends, here’s three players with the most positive rank spreads, and three players with the most negative rank spreads.

Top Experts Like Them More

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Derek Carrier WAS at ATL 10 33 18.99 4.30 12 23 17.29 3.08 -1.70 Larry Donnell NYG vs. SF 8 23 15.77 2.71 9 18 14.21 2.71 -1.56 Jared Cook STL at GB 10 23 15.22 2.75 12 19 14.10 1.87 -1.12

The most relevant here is Jared Cook, who is a tad bit underrated.

Top Experts Like Them Less

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Range Jordan Reed WAS at ATL 4 33 18.55 5.94 18 27 21.20 3.20 2.65 Heath Miller PIT at SD 8 29 16.54 3.21 14 20 17.39 1.67 0.85 Delanie Walker TEN vs. BUF 3 28 8.91 2.59 6 28 9.70 4.37 0.79

Delanie Walker is a tad bit overrated, but moving from 8.91 to 9.7 means you’re still starting him.

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Thanks for reading! Hopefully this helps. May your starters stay healthy and your D/ST gets a pick six…unless you’re playing against me.

Matthew Rubin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Follow Matthew on Twitter @mtthewrubiin.

