COVID-19 as of today (03-18-20, summary is my own, not my employer’s):

[QUICK NOTE: You can find definitions of some terms I use commonly in these posts, as well as the link to your state health department’s up-to-date COVID-19 case counts, here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CQZ9KGRJ8gLqSs89sEjpVSr5jBEkgvgBT-QoMOy-O0w Today is another shorter post, but still very pertinent. Also, I’m currently looking into new reports of chloroquine being a potentially effective treatment for COVID-19, and I hope to have an in-depth summary on the research tomorrow. I heard one person reporting on it state that because this now looks to be an effective treatment, a vaccine is not needed. This is definitely not the case – we have Tamiflu, yet the flu still kills tens of thousands of people in the US annually. It is always better to prevent an illness than have to try treating an active one.]

Cases in New Countries and Community Spread: Countries Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritius, and Zambia each report their first COVID-19 cases. No new countries are reporting local transmission, though nine countries and one territory with 30+ cases who are reporting no local transmission have had a two-fold or higher increase in cases since March 15 and today – Russia (34 to 93), Latvia (30 to 60), Malta (12 to 38), Turkey (5 to 47), Kazakhstan (6 to 33), Faroe Islands (9 to 47), Pakistan (28 to 187), Jordan (1 to 35), Mexico (41 to 82), and Venezuela (2 to 33). [1, 2, 3]

Using Other Data Sources as a Proxy for COVID-19 Prevalence: The U.S. Health Weather Map, a daily map sourced from temperature readings of 600,000+ “smart thermometers” across the US, shows hotspots of influenza-like illness in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, and more than half of Florida. These hotspots mean that there are higher rates than normal of people with fevers. These findings could be due to many things, such as increased health-seeking behaviors, actual influenza cases, abnormal cold viruses, or COVID-19 infections. As COVID-19 testing is not yet widespread, data points like these may be good proxies to help determine where illnesses are occurring in the general population. The methodology for this map is published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases. [4, 5]

US Hospital Beds Will Run Out if the COVID-19 Curve Isn’t Flattened Quickly [TWO PARAGRAPHS]: The Harvard Global Health Institute releases sobering estimates of how many extra hospital beds the country would need depending on how many US adults are infected with COVID-19 over the next 6-18 months. The team’s moderate scenario, 40% of US adults becoming infected over the next 12 months, shows that hospitals in 40% of health care markets across the US would not be able to make enough room for all the patients who became ill with COVID-19, even if they could empty all their existing beds. ICU beds would be in even shorter supply.

Meanwhile, a researcher in Italy tweets a picture of military trucks lined up in Bergamo to take coffins away from an overwhelmed hospital. The mayor of Bergamo states in an interview: “It's harrowing what friends who work there are reporting. It’s almost like being in the trenches. They are working around the clock, without sleep. Many have unfortunately become infected and are now at home sick. On top of this is the fact that there is a lack of protective masks and goggles. Most importantly, we are desperately searching for ventilators and other equipment that is needed for intensive care. That’s why we have launched an urgent appeal to the Italian health system, the civil protection agency and the international community. And, fortunately, we’re now getting support from other countries as well. Unfortunately, however, there are many elderly people who we cannot help and who cannot be taken to the hospital.” [6, 7, 8]

Healthcare Workers, Artists, Celebrities Urge You to Stay Home: On Monday, a website called “The Social Distancing Festival” went live; it showcases content from artists staying at home and includes upcoming livestreams. Arnold Schwarzenegger asks spring breakers to stop going to restaurants and beaches. Many healthcare workers wearing personal protective equipment post pictures and videos, saying “I stay at work for you, you stay at home for us.” [9-14]

There’s Insufficient Data to Support Avoiding Ibuprofen if You Have COVID-19 Symptoms, Though the WHO Recommends Taking Acetaminophen Instead: France’s Health Minister tweeted last weekend that COVID-19 patients should avoid taking NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, like ibuprofen or aspirin). Then the European Medicines Agency released a statement saying there is “currently no scientific evidence establishing a link between ibuprofen and worsening of COVID‑19.” Other infectious disease experts and virologists agree that there isn’t enough evidence to make such a claim, including a virologist who discovered how the coronavirus binds to cells. Yesterday, the spokesman for the WHO stated that the agency is looking into these claims further but recommends using acetaminophen (also known as Tylenol or paracetamol) for now instead of ibuprofen. [15, 16]

Multiple Outbreaks at Long-Term Care Facilities, Nursing Homes: Starting with the Life Care facility in Kirkland, WA, many senior living facilities have experienced COVID-19 outbreaks, including 10 in King County, WA; 19 across Florida; the Atria Senior Living Care Facility (Burlingame, CA); Carlton Senior Living Elk Grove (south of Sacramento, CA); the Chateau Nursing & Rehab Center (Willowbrook, IL); North Shore Health & Rehab Facility (Loveland, CO); Westminster Canterbury Richmond (VA); Three Crowns Park (Evanston, IL); a facility in Wyandotte County, KS; and a nursing home in Stafford Springs, CT. A CDC report released today found that gaps in effective infection control and prevention, plus staff members working in multiple facilities contributed to intra- and inter-facility spread of COVID-19 in Kirkland. [17-29]

[1] Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Map

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[2] WHO COVID-19 Situation Report, 03-15-20

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200315-sitrep-55-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=33daa5cb_8

[3] WHO COVID-19 Situation Report, 03-18-20

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200318-sitrep-58-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=20876712_2

[4] US Health Weather Map

https://healthweather.us/

[5] A Smartphone-Driven Thermometer Application for Real-time Population- and Individual-Level Influenza Surveillance

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/67/3/388/4838992

[6] These Places Could Run Out of Hospital Beds as Coronavirus Spreads

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/upshot/hospital-bed-shortages-coronavirus.html

[7] Valerio Capraro, Tweet, 03-18-20

https://twitter.com/valeriocapraro/status/1240414156815245312?s=12

[8] ‘Make Good Use of the Time You Still Have’

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/italian-mayor-on-the-coronavirus-make-good-use-of-the-time-you-still-have-left-a-ffd1c9b6-8d2c-42c9-baa9-a578d185e90a

[9] The Social Distancing Festival

https://www.socialdistancingfestival.com/

[10] Arnold Schwarzenegger, Tweet, 03-18-20

https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1240418674491543552

[11] Amy Lorraine, Tweet, 03-18-20

https://twitter.com/amylorraine28/status/1240452788691390465

[12] MartiniShot, Tweet, 03-18-20

https://twitter.com/martini__shot/status/1240422584224591874

[13] Nvtqqv, Tweet, 03-18-20

https://twitter.com/nvtqqv/status/1240479365823160320

[14] Mohamed Alfatih, Tweet, 03-18-20

https://twitter.com/mohamedalfatih/status/1240251794694918145

[15] Advice from France To Avoid Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Leaves Experts Baffled

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/18/818026613/advice-from-france-to-avoid-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-leaves-experts-baffled

[16] WHO Now Officially Recommends Avoiding Taking Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Symptoms

https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms

[17] Relatives watch as COVID-19 tears through Seattle-area senior homes. ‘It’s a very helpless feeling.’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/12/coronavirus-seattle-nursing-homes/

[18] More long-term care facilities in Kirkland discover positive COVID-19 cases

https://www.kirklandreporter.com/news/more-long-term-care-facilities-in-kirkland-discover-positive-covid-19-cases/

[19] Two more coronavirus deaths in King County as 10 nursing homes report positive tests

https://q13fox.com/2020/03/10/two-more-coronavirus-deaths-in-king-county-as-10-nursing-homes-report-positive-tests/

[20] Coronavirus Update: 3 Residents at Burlingame Senior Care Facility Test Positive For COVID-19

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-3-residents-atria-burlingame-senior-care-facility-test-positive-for-covid-19/

[21] Third California COVID-19 death: Elderly woman in Sacramento Co. assisted living facility

https://www.ktvu.com/news/third-california-covid-19-death-elderly-woman-in-sacramento-co-assisted-living-facility

[22] Illinois Nursing Home With COVID-19 Cases Received Below-Average Federal Rating

https://www.nbcchicago.com/investigations/illinois-nursing-home-with-covid-19-cases-received-below-average-federal-rating/2239657/

[23] Loveland long-term care facility worker tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2020/03/16/loveland-long-term-care-facility-worker-tests-positive-for-covid-19/5063852002/

[24] Coronavirus surfaces in 19 elder care facilities in Florida

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/18/coronavirus-surfaces-in-19-elder-care-facilities-in-florida-1267712

[25] VDH: 1st person at continuing care facility hospitalized for coronavirus in Virginia

https://www.nbc12.com/2020/03/17/vdh-st-person-continuing-care-facility-hospitalized-coronavirus-virginia/

[26] Two Evanston senior living residents tested positive for COVID-19. Facility’s director says, ‘we’re getting no help whatsoever.’

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/evanston/ct-evr-three-crowns-park-coronavirus-tl-0326-20200318-n466ryquqrfrlh3kgnzd72bdhi-story.html

[27] Missouri announces first death related to COVID-19 in Boone County

https://www.kmbc.com/article/missouri-announces-first-death-related-to-covid-19-coronavirus/31752955#

[28] Connecticut’s coronavirus firsts: a death, and a nursing home case

https://ctmirror.org/2020/03/18/connecticut-joins-ny-ny-and-pa-in-closing-malls/

[29] COVID-19 in a Long-Term Care Facility — King County, Washington, February 27–March 9, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e1.htm