Both economically and – for the government – politically, the latest GDP figures released on Wednesday are just terrible – a truly lousy set of numbers. As the last national accounts before the election this was the final major opportunity for the government to prove that its policies were working. Instead the figures revealed a sharply slowing economy compounded by the story of this government’s five and half years in office – weak wages growth flowing through to stagnant household incomes.

While companies are doing well, workers and households have been left behind | Greg Jericho Read more

The December GDP figures showed the economy grew by just 2.3% in 2018 – the slowest in trend terms since March 2015 – and the December quarter saw growth of just 0.3% in trend terms was the lowest quarterly growth since March 2003:

And what growth we did have was due to population growth – per capita GDP fell by 0.1% in trends terms. It was actually the second consecutive quarter the per capita GDP has fallen in seasonally adjusted terms – something that didn’t even happen during the GFC:

It makes it pretty tough to argue the economy is doing well. And it renders Scott Morrison’s claims that “the economy under the Coalition will be stronger than it would be under a Labor government” rather limp given just how weak the economy currently is.

The figures also reveal that the past six months has seen a sharp decline in the trajectory of our economic growth.

In June the ABS estimated the economy was growing annually by 3.4%; this was revised down in the September figure to 3% - the same level that was estimated the economy grew in the 12 months to September. Now even that estimate has been revised down to 2.8%:

It suggests that the middle of last year, rather than being a point at which the economy was starting to zoom, it was actually the peak – and a low peak at that.

At the time I noted that without stronger wages growth such seemingly strong economic growth would be tough to sustain. And so it has come to pass.

The latest figures show households are increasing their spending by less than any time since the Coalition was elected in September 2013:

Household consumption growth of just 2.2% is well below the 3.5% 25 year average and also marks a sharp drop since March 2018.

But is this at all a surprise? Who the heck is in a mood to spend when over the past year the average compensation per employee grew by just 1.5%?

Given this is below the 1.8% inflation growth of the past year meant that yet again compensation per employees went backwards in real terms.

This has been the story while the Coalition has been in power, and means the level of compensation per employee is now lower in real terms than any time since 2010:

The horror run of wages growth has of course long been a concern during this government’s term.

When Gareth Hutchens and I looked at the issue 12 months ago we noted than one hope was that the recent improvement in profits would flow through to wages. While annual profits often grew and fell erratically there did seem to be a link between wages growth and the average of profits growth over a three year period.

We noted at the time that “the hope is that [profits] will continue to improve and thus so too will wages”.

And yet profits have continued to improve, but wages have not.

Over the past three years the gross operating surplus for corporations (a proxy for profits) has grown on average by 9% - the best result since 2011 – and yet the growth of the compensation to employees is slowing:

As a result the share of national income going to employees remains at near 50-year record lows:

This all flows through to household incomes which have been absolutely hammered.

In real terms, per capita gross household disposable income has now fallen 11 out of the past 15 quarters. It leaves per capita household disposable income lower in a real terms than any time since September 2010 and 1.7% below what they were when the Coalition was first elected:

Just two months out from an election the Coalition’s economic narrative is pretty much in tatters. They can point to low unemployment, and some solid employment growth, but overall the story of their time in government is that any good news has failed utterly to translate into better standards of living.

These latest figures make it very tough for the government to argue that you are better off now than you were when they came into power over five years ago.

• Greg Jericho is a Guardian Australia columnist