MP

John Howard (LIB) since 1974. Prime Minister since March 1996.

Profile

Bennelong covers 58 sq.km on Sydney's lower north shore, including all of Ryde Council and smaller areas from Hornsby and Parramatta councils. It stretches along the Parramatta River from the border of Hunters Hill Council in Gladesville to Silverwater Road in Ermington, extending north to the Lane Cover River and the M2. From east to west, it includes parts of Gladesville, as well as Ryde, Eastwood, Epping and parts of Carlingford, Beecroft and Ermington. The electorate also includes Macquarie University and the industrial estate at Macquarie Park.

Redistribution

Gains around 1,800 voters in a strip of Beecroft between North Rocks Road and the M2, as well as 5,500 voters in those parts of Ermington east of Silverwater Road. These changes have minimal impact on the Liberal Party majority, slipping down a notch from 4.3% to 4.2%.

History/Trivia

Bennelong is named after a local aborigine befriended by Governor Arthur Phillip when Sydney was first settled. Created in 1949, Bennelong has been Liberal held ever since, first by Sir John Cramer (1949-74), then John Howard since 1974. Despite John Howard's long association with Bennelong, he has not lived in the electorate since the 1977 redistribution moved his home in Wollstencraft into neighbouring North Sydney. Another redistribution before the 1993 election removed the whole of Liberal voting Lane Cove Council, and the backlash against Fightback at that election reduced Howard's margin to only 3.2%, the smallest in his time as member. A further redistribution ahead of the 2001 election removed Liberal voting Hunters Hill. Together with the latest boundary changes, and changing demographics in parts of the electorate, this puts Bennelong at the point on the pendulum where the Labor Party achieves government.

2-Party Booth Result

Liberal party majorities were recorded in 33 of the 47 booths used in 2004. The Liberal vote ranged from 44.1% at Meadowbank to 64.0% at Royal Ryde Homes.

They've been eyeball to eyeball across the desk in political interviews, and now they compete even more vigorously, though perhaps not as physically close together, in the battle for this bellwether seat. Bennelong is the political battle of the 2007 election, with Prime Minister John Howard facing off against Labor's Maxine McKew, former presenter of ABC programs such as the 7:30 Report and Lateline. 68 year-old John Howard has represented this seat since 1974, served as Treasurer in the Fraser Government from 1977 to 1983, was Opposition Leader 1985-89 and again 1995-95, and has been Prime Minister of Australia for eleven and a half years since defeating Paul Keating at the 1996 election. Under mounting pressure in September 2007, Howard conceded that this will be his last election campaign. For the same period that Howard has been an elected representative, 54 year-old McKew has worked in journalism, starting with This Day Tonight in Brisbane, since then working in Washington and New York, as well as being one of the ABC's senior presenters for more than decade before departing the national broadcaster in 2006. She is a Walkley and Logie Award winning journalist and for several years wrote an influential Bulletin column, 'Lunch with Maxine McKew'. She will not be short of advice in running her campaign, as her partner is Bob Hogg, a veteran campaigner who at various times has helped John Cain, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating win election campaigns.

Issues and Polls

Several Bennelong opinion polls have been published this year, and all have shown Labor winning the seat. The most recent was a Galaxy poll, published the first weekend of November, showing Labor leading on the primary vote 47% to 46% with the Greens on 4%, producing a two-party preferred Labor victory 52% to 48%.

Assessment

The seat to watch at the 2007 election. The only Australian Prime Minister to depart office at a time of his own choosing was Sir Robert Menzies, and victory seems certain to see John Howard paired with his political idol, assuming Howard chooses to retire in the next term. Defeat will produce a less attractive historical parallel, John Howard paired with Stanley Bruce as the only Prime Minister to lose his seat at a general election.