BECKLEY, W.Va. — Republicans can't seem to figure out how to beat Joe Manchin.

On paper, Manchin should be an easy mark in November: an incumbent Democrat in a state where President Donald Trump won two-thirds of the vote in 2016 and remains overwhelmingly popular. Yet Manchin holds a comfortable lead in public and private polling, and interviews with multiple Republican operatives involved in or closely following the race indicate it has slipped out of the top tier of Senate contests.


Republicans are worried that Manchin's opponent, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, has failed to close the gap since he emerged from a nasty primary in May. Morrisey has been blistered by ads from Democrats but has yet to hit the airwaves himself during the general election, and has less than $900,000 in the bank compared to Manchin's $6.2 million war chest.

Republicans aren't giving up: At least five outside groups are on the air attacking Manchin this month, hoping to drag down the Democrat and tilt the race back in their favor before Labor Day. But if Morrisey can't right his ship by then, he risks outside groups and donors turning their attention elsewhere. A loss in West Virginia would be a major blow to the party's hope of increasing its 51-49 majority and would provide a major boost to Democrats' slim chances to flip the chamber.

"Between the primary and today, there's no question that race has slipped for Republicans," said one GOP strategist involved in Senate races, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

In an interview here after touring a local mining equipment company, Morrisey, who has been elected statewide twice, didn't dispute that he's behind, but chalked it up to being less well-known than Manchin, who was West Virginia governor before being elected to the Senate in 2010. Morrisey dismissed as "irrelevant" polls showing him trailing by high single digits or low double digits.

"We always get hit when they put the big money in up front, and then we close and we win," he said. "Why? Because we've been able to wait to get our positive messaging out and they can't touch our positive record."

Trump is the cornerstone of Morrisey's turnaround bid: Republicans in the state are counting on the president's support to put the Republican back within striking distance. If Trump holds a couple of rallies in the state to bash Manchin, Republicans say, the dynamics of the race could change very quickly.

"The recognition that Senator Morrisey would be a very good ally of President Trump, that in and of itself makes this race very competitive," said Mitch Carmichael, the Republican president of the state Senate.

Morrisey has wholly embraced Trump. In the interview, he declined to name a single issue on which he disagreed with the president. He's previously joked he wants the whole Trump family to buy vacation homes in the state and set up shop between now and November. He repeated that joke this week, and called Trump a "difference-maker" in the race.

"The president is very committed to this race, and he loves the state passionately. That's going to matter in November," Morrisey said. "He knows and Vice President Pence knows that when push comes to shove, Joe will say no. Joe's never going to be a deciding vote in favor of West Virginia conservative values."

Manchin, for his part, has embraced Trump. He was the first Democrat to break with his party and meet with Trump's latest Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, and has voted with the president 60 percent of the time, more than any other Democrat.

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“I’m with him sometimes more than other Republican senators are with him,” Manchin told POLITICO in June.

Still, there are signs Morrisey's 100 percent pro-Trump message is resonating on the ground.

"During a tour of Phillips Machine Services, a mining equipment business, it took Morrisey less than a minute after stepping onto the factory floor before asking about the benefits of the Trump tax cuts. The company's CEO said business has improved in the past year and workers have seen increases in their take-home pay.

"I'm the guy who sued Obama," Morrisey said by way of introduction as he shook hands with one worker on the factory floor while standing next to a gleaming white shuttle car. It was a reference to Morrisey's successful lawsuit against the former president's order to curb greenhouse emissions from power plants.

"Joe Manchin was with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton while your buddies were losing jobs," Morrisey told other workers.

Morrisey's problems, however, are not necessarily with the grass roots, but on the airwaves. He has faced constant attacks on TV, with most ads focused on his past work as a lobbyist, including for pharmaceutical companies, which opponents tie to the state's opioid crisis. Democrats are also hitting Morrisey over a previous run for office in his native New Jersey.

The criticism isn't new: Morrisey was rebuked by opponents on similar grounds during his expensive and brutal 2016 reelection as attorney general and again this year by his Republican opponents.

One GOP operative involved in Senate races said Morrisey emerged from the May 8 primary "worn down and broke." Democrats picked up the baton immediately. Senate Majority PAC, a top group aligned with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has spent $3.5 million against him since then, and has millions more booked through Election Day.

"Patrick Morrisey is losing this race because both Republicans and Democrats agree that an opioid lobbyist should not represent West Virginia in the Senate," said Chris Hayden, a spokesman for the group.

Other party strategists dispute any concern about being competitive come November. They admit that some of the knocks on Morrisey have sunk in with voters after the relentless wave of messaging against him. But they also point out the attacks didn't prevent Morrisey from winning his 2016 reelection or the Republican primary.

"It's nothing new," said Carmichael, the state Senate president. "It's already been heard, it's been processed and the voters have already made a decision on these issues."

Republicans have dropped significant money onto the airwaves to turn the tide. The NRA, Judicial Crisis Network and a pro-Trump super PAC are running ads pressuring Manchin on Trump's Supreme Court nomination. The NRSC launched its first ad of the cycle against Manchin this week, hitting him for having gone Washington. And One Nation, a nonprofit aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has been bashing him on illegal immigration.

But none of the ads has countered Democratic messaging on Morrisey or worked to improve his own image in the state.

Phil Cox, an adviser to a pro-Morrisey super PAC, said he thinks Morrisey will have a healthy tailwind as the election nears. But he said "step one" for Morrisey's allies is to begin airing positive ads to boost the candidate's image.

"The negative information flow is baked in," Cox said, "but Patrick's campaign and the pro-Morrisey groups have a ways to go to define Patrick."

