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Hit Power SB Field Overall 65 45/50 40 45 65

Background: Arguably the purest hitter in the 2017 draft class. Hiura, a 5-foot-11, 190-pound second baseman, went from a dynamic bat during his freshman season into an unstoppable force two seasons later. A product of UC Irvine, Hiura left the school as a career .375/.466/.581 hitter. But it was his work during his junior campaign that rocketed him up as – arguably – the premier bat available in that year’s class. In a career-high tying 56 games for long time Head Coach Mike Gillespie, Hiura battered the Division I competition to the tune of .442/.567/.693 with a whopping 24 doubles, one triple, and eight homeruns. He also swiped nine bags in 15 attempts and finished the year with a 38-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio as well. Milwaukee snagged the offensive dynamo with the ninth overall pick and signed him to a hefty $4 million deal. Hiura continued his torrid ways at the plate as he moved into professional ball, batting a combined .371/.422/.611 with 25 extra-base hits in only 42 games between rookie ball and the Midwest League. Milwaukee pushed the young middle infielder straight up to the Carolina League and then on to Class AA in 2018. Hiura finished his sophomore professional season with an aggregate .293/.357/.464 triple-slash line, belting out 34 doubles, five triples, and 13 homeruns. He also swiped 15 bags, though it took 26 attempts to do so. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 33%.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about the UC Irvine product heading into the draft last season:

“Offensively, there’s really nothing to not like about Hiura: he succeeded at every stop of his collegiate career; he hits for average; runs a little bit; has solid-average power; and his plate discipline has grown by leaps and bounds during his junior season. After posting a combined 85-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his first two seasons, he’s currently sporting an impressive 38-to-50 mark through his first 54 games in 2017.Defensively, well, that’s another story. He simply doesn’t have a set position. Hiura has seen some action at second base and in center field in the past, but he’s spent the majority of the time at DH this season. The bat, though, will likely play at any position in the outfield and could be an above-average force at second or third bases. Finally, consider the following comparison:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% Keston Hiura 758 .367 .461 .573 12.14% 16.23% Ian Happ 718 .338 .463 .552 17.83 16.16%

Happ, the ninth overall pick out of the University of Cincinnati in 2015, put together a similar career triple-slash line, though he walked more frequently and showcased better speed. But if Hiura becomes 90% of Happ, any team that drafts the California native should be pleased. Expect Hiura to go somewhere between picks 12 and 25 with a peak as a .300/.340/.410-type hitter.”

A year later and the analysis looks spot on. Hiura’s bat is nearing big league readiness – so much so, in fact, that if arbitration years weren’t at stake he’d likely be in the running for Milwaukee’s starting gig on the onset of 2019. Hiura has a chance to contend for a batting title or two at his peak. His defense remains a work in progress. But he’s going to be a mainstay atop the Brewers’ lineup for the better part of a decade.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. Phil Bickford, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 55 55 50 55/60 60

Background: Limited to just a handful of games in the Arizona Summer League due to a broken hand and, well, stupidity two years ago. The former: a result of a hard struck line drive that fractured metacarpals in his ring and pinkie fingers. The latter: he got popped for a drug of abuse and subsequently suspended 50 games prior to the start of the year. Finally healthy and free to return to the mound, Bickford spent last season working out of the Carolina Mudcats’ bullpen. In 21 appearances, the former twice-drafted first rounder fanned 41 and walked 18 in 34.2 innings of work; he finished his fourth professional season with an unsightly 4.67 ERA and a 4.45 DRA.

Analysis: I’ve been on Bickford’s bandwagon for so long, it’s simply too difficult to leap off at this point. After missing so much time due to injury and the suspension, Milwaukee pushed the hard-throwing right-hander into a relief role and then started extending him out during the end of the year. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound hurler shows the same electric low- to mid-90s fastball that touches 95 mph, an above-average slider with 12-6 break, and a workable changeup. And despite all the missed time, Bickford’s command remains strong. It’s hard to believe he’s only entering his age-23 season. But I’m still a firm believer that he ultimately peaks as a strong #3-type arm. If he can stay out of his own way, Bickford could be one of the biggest surprises in 2019.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/50 45/65 30 40/45 55+

Background: A product of James W. Martin High School in Arlington Texas, Lutz joins a long list of impressive talent to walk the schools hallowed halls: Todd Van Poppel, Ben Grieve, and Nate Karns are three of 18 players taken out from the prep school. Lutz, the 34th overall pick two years ago, showcased a dynamic skill set during his debut, hitting an aggregate .311/.398/.559 with five doubles, four triples, and nine homeruns between rookie ball and the Pioneer League. Milwaukee bumped the promising outfielder up to Wisconsin last season. In 119 games with the Rattlers, the 6-foot-3, 210-pounder batted a respectable .245/.321/.421 with 33 doubles, three triples, and 13 homeruns. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 10%.

Analysis: The Midwest League was home to several high end teenage bats last season, including Elehuris Montero, Moises Gomez, Akil Baddoo, Jeter Downs, Miguel Amaya, and – of course – Lutz. Milwaukee’s youngster got off to a predictably slow start last season, batting a lowly .167/.244/.282 over his first 20 games. But beginning on May 3rd, he slugged a healthy .262/.337/.451 over his final 99 contests. Lutz has big, big time power potential – as evidenced by his 33 doubles, which will begin to grow some legs in the coming years. His hit tool is a bit underdeveloped, as is his defense as well. But he has a chance to develop into a perennial 30-homer threat.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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4. Marcos Diplan, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 45 55/60 50/55 35/45 60

Background: A sizable track-record of impressive strikeout totals – vs. older competition – and wavering control, Diplan shot up prospect lists after a breakout 2016 season. The then-19-year-old right-hander put on his best Ben Sheets impersonation in the Midwest League, posting a miniscule 1.80 ERA across 70.0 innings while racking up 89 whiffs and handing out just 32 free passes. The fire-balling youngster also held his own when the front office bumped him to Brevard County in the second half. Diplan returned to High Class A the following year, 2017, and while he recorded nearly a punch out per inning, the promising right-hander averaged a touch more than 5.0 walks per nine innings – surpassing his previous career high. And last season, his fifth in professional ball, it was much the same. Splitting time between Carolina and Biloxi, Diplan posted a concerning 117-to-71 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 118.1 innings of work.

Analysis: Ignoring the control issues momentarily. Diplan’s repertoire screams mid-rotation caliber potential. His fastball is a plus offering with riding, late life. His slider, a 2-to-7 breaking pitch, can be a wipeout offering at times and already grades out as above-average with more in the tank. And his change can generate a handful of swings-and-misses as well. He’ll also mix in a rare 12-6 curveball, though it’s below-average. Now back to the control issues. Consider the following;

Let’s continue:

And here’s the list of those aforementioned arms that recorded a walk percentage north of 10%: Archer, Carvajal, and Jackson.

The best, obviously, is All-Star right-hander Chris Archer. Let’s take a look at their age-21 seasons in the Southern League. Consider the following:

Name Age IP K% BB% Marcos Diplan 21 57.0 22.0% 13.9% Chris Archer 21 70.0 23.0% 13.4%

Archer, like Diplan, battled severe control demons early in his career. And the current Pirates ace wasn’t able to corral his wildness for a couple more seasons. Maybe – just maybe – the Brew Crew can unlock Diplan’s feel for the strike zone?

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 60 35/40 55 55/60 55

Background: The lesser known piece the club received in the Tyler Thornburg swap with Boston a couple years ago. Dubon, who was acquired with some guy by the name of Travis Shaw, got off to a scorching start to the year, slugging a red hot .343/.348/.574 with nine doubles, two triples, and four homeruns through his first 27 games. But a torn ACL in his left knee in early May forced him to miss the remainder of the year. Prior to the injury, Dubon’s overall production – per Weighted Runs Created Plus – topped the PCL league average mark by a robust 35%. For his career, the 6-foot, 160-pound middle infielder is sporting a .300/.349/.412 minor league line.

Analysis: A brief 62-game stint in High Class A three years ago notwithstanding, Dubon’s never been a patient hitter. But he owns an above-average bat with the potential to be a solid .280 hitter in the big leagues. His power has developed from nonexistent to below-average over the past couple of years. And prior to the knee injury he was a 20+ stolen base threat as well. There’s enough of a foundation to carve out a spot as a low end everyday regular if everything breaks the right way – and the knee issue doesn’t hamper his foot speed/range in the field. He could team with Keston Hiura to form a solid double-play tandem – assuming Orlando Arcia doesn’t figure it out that plate/recapture whatever magic he showed a couple years ago.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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6. Zack Brown, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 65 50 55 55

Background: A surprising fifth round pick out of the University of Kentucky in 2016 after a disappointing tenure – especially during his junior campaign with the Wildcats. Brown, a 6-foot-1, 180-pound right-hander, posted a horrific 6.08 ERA with mediocre peripherals (62-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio) in 84.0 innings of work. But he’s blossomed over the past couple of seasons in the Brewers’ farm system. The hard-throwing righty posted a 107-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio between his time with Wisconsin and Carolina in 2017. And he maintained status quo as he moved up to the most important minor league challenge, Class AA, last season. In 22 appearances with the Shuckers, Brown fanned 116 and walked just 36 in 125.2 innings of work. He tallied a 2.44 ERA and 3.42 DRA (Deserved Run Average) en route to winning Pitcher of the Year in the Milwaukee system.

Analysis: Talk about a fantastic job of scouting and developing by the Milwaukee. Brown’s missing far more bats and handing out far fewer walks since entering pro ball. Here’s what I wrote about Brown heading into the 2016 draft:

“Brown really struggles with the long ball; he’s coughed up 17 of them over his last 177.1 innings of work – or just about one every game. It’s awfully difficult to win games when you (A) have a propensity for the homer, (B) [don’t] miss a whole lot of bats, and (C) [own] borderline control. At best Brown’s a backend starter, but he’s more likely going to be pushed into a relief role – and probably quickly.”

His homer-prone-ness disappeared; he surrendered just 16 dingers over his last 237.2 innings of work – or roughly .61 HR/9. In terms of arsenal, Brown’s fastball gets on hitters quickly. And his devastating breaking ball, called a curveball but moves more like a slider, is incredibly difficult on hitters, showing hard, late lateral movement – often outside the strike zone; it’s a true plus offering. He’ll mix in the occasional changeup as well. At worst, Brown looks like a late-inning, high-leverage relief arm. But there’s some potential as a #3-type arm in the next year or two.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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7. Braden Webb, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 60 60 50 40/45 55

Background: Originally taken by the Cleveland Indians coming out of high school in the late, late rounds of the 2014 draft – despite throwing just two games, both of which were no-hitters, before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Webb would miss the remainder of 2014 as well as all of the 2015 season. Finally healthy, Webb sparkled in his lone season with the South Carolina Gamecocks: in 18 appearances, 17 of which were starts, the 6-foot-2, 195-pound right-hander tossed 102.0 innings, recording an impressive 128 strikeouts and 48 walks to go along with a 10-6 win-loss record and a 3.09 ERA. Milwaukee snagged him in the third round that season, 82nd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $700,000. Webb wouldn’t make his debut until the following year, spending the entire 2017 season with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers; he posted an impressive 90-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 86.2 innings of work. Milwaukee eased the reins a bit last season, allowing the former Tommy John survivor to throw a career best 120.2 innings between stints with the Biloxi Shuckers and Carolina Mudcats. He would finish the year with a solid 128-to-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Analysis: On the short list of most underrated pitching prospects in the minor leagues. Webb has a deep, electric four-pitch arsenal. His fastball, a plus offering, touched 98 mph during an early season appearance in the Carolina League. His slider shows hard, late lateral movement and debilitates right-handed hitters when he locates it low-and-away. His other breaking pitch, a hard curveball, adds a third plus offering due to its late sharp tilt. And his changeup, a fine fourth offering, grades out as an MLB average pitch. Webb’s control/command still has ways to go, but it’s important to remember the time missed due to injury. His repertoire and potential as a late-blooming starting pitcher is reminiscent of Cleveland’s unheralded arm Mike Clevinger.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/55 35/45 50 50 55

Background: One of the more highly touted – and longest scouted – prep prospects in recent memory. Turang started popping up on radars after an explosive freshman season at Santiago High School in Corona, California; he batted .475 and was named National Freshman of the Year by MaxPreps, as well as earning the Dick Case Award given by USA Baseball – the first time a member of the 15U team earned the recognition. Turang, who would eventually commit to Louisiana State University, continued to swing a hot bat over the remainder of his high school career including hitting .465 as a junior and .352 during his final season. Milwaukee happily snagged the toolsy middle infielder with the 21st overall pick last June, signing him a deal in access of $3.4 million. Turang split his debut season between the Arizona Summer and Pioneer Leagues, batting .283/.396/.352 with six doubles, one triple, and one homeruns with 14 stolen bases.

Analysis: Once offering glimpses as a potential face-of-the-franchise type player, Turang’s ceiling has cooled a bit in recent years. The bat could eventually join his speed as an above-average skill. But the lefty-swinging shortstop doesn’t project to his for a whole lot of extra-base fire power throughout his career. He has a chance to be a Cole Tucker-type of player with better patience at the plate.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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9. Aaron Ashby, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 55/60 55/60 50/55 50

Background: The club’s fourth round pick out of JuCo Crowder College last season. Ashby, the nephew of former big league veteran Andy Ashby, put up videogame-esque stats during his final season with the Rough Riders. In 15 appearances for Head Coach Travis Lallemand, the 6-foot-1, 170-pound southpaw posted a whopping 156-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 74.2 innings of work. After signing with the club for a little over a half-million dollars, Ashby split his debut between the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues, throwing a combined 57.2 innings while fanning an impressive 66 and handing out just 17 walks to go along with a 3.59 ERA.

Analysis: One of my favorite arms in all the minor leagues. Ashby’s not just a typical crafty southpaw. His fastball is sneaky quick, sitting in the 91-92 mph range and can touch 93 mph on occasion. His two-seamer shows some solid arm-side run as well. His curveball is a bit inconsistent, but flashes plus at times with hard 12-6 bite, giving the illusion of following off the table. His changeup, a quality third pitch, is thrown with tremendous arm speed and dives down-and-away to right-handers. Ashby fires from a high arm slot, somewhere between three-quarter and over-the-top. He’s poised to move quickly with the ceiling as a backend starting pitcher. Tremendous, tremendous find in the fourth round.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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10. Trey Supak, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 50 50 60 45+

Background: It’s a perfect example of how small trades can ripple across several years. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh got together on a seemingly trivial swap near the end of 2015, agreeing to send corner infielder/outfielder Jason Rogers to the Pirates in exchange for toolsy – but flawed – center fielder Keon Broxton and Supak, a former second round selection. Taken with the 73rd overall pick in the 2014 draft, Supak looked like a potential bust after his second professional season. He wasn’t missing many bats and he got hammered for 21 earned runs in 28.1 innings in the Appalachian League, his most recent stop. But Milwaukee remained patient with the budding youngster. And he’s on the brink of earning some playing time in the big leagues. Supak spilt 2016 between the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues. The front office took the same approach the following year, having him spend time back in Low Class A before promoting him up the Carolina League. And last season, arguably his finest to date, Supak dominated High Class A for nine starts and looked remarkably sturdy in 16 Class AA starts. He finished the year with an aggregate 2.48 ERA to go along with 123 strikeouts and just 44 walks in a career-best 137.2 innings of work.

Analysis: Typical big Texas-born right-hander, Supak stands an imposing 6-foot-5, and generously listed 235 pounds. He attacks hitters with a low 90s fastball, which he commands well and isn’t afraid to challenge hitters in on their hands. He’ll also mix in a solid curveball and a workable straight changeup. Unlike the typical Texas-born right-hander, Supak’s never going to miss a lot of bats on “pure” stuff. But he generally does an impressive job commanding the ball to all four quadrants. He looks like a capable backend end starting pitcher. And one who’s less than half-of-a-season away from contributing at the big league level. Think poor man’s John Lackey.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.