The Democrat Convention will gavel itself into existence on July 13, about seven months from now, and while it is far too early to make firm predictions, so far, the smart money seems to be on Biden. According to Rasmussen, Joe Biden holds a dramatic lead, with support from 37% of Likely Democrat Voters, over rivals Elizabeth Warren at 15%, Bernie Sanders at 14%, and Pete Buttigieg at 12% of voters in the mad dash to the Democrat nomination. Kamala Harris's departure from the campaign — just like Bloomberg's arrival — is unlikely to change these dynamics significantly, at least in the short term.

Biden as the Democrat presidential standard-bearer could be good news for Republican House candidates, if only because Biden doesn't seem to be able to help himself. He keeps making things up, on camera, many of which make no sense, while others are clear fabrications. However, he's also adopted some extreme socialist positions, including gun confiscation and the Green New Deal, sure to polarize American voters.

First, Biden is well known for "shooting from the lip," coming up with bizarre confabulated tales, such as his recent claim about honoring a valiant soldier. As Joe tells it, Vice President Biden tried to pin a medal on a Navy captain's chest for meritorious service. That captain had entered a ravine under hostile fire, attempting to save a fellow American combatant, though the man he came to save had died. Then, when offered the Silver Star, Biden claimed that this Navy Captain refused the honor. "Do not pin it on me, Sir! Do not do that! He died. He died!"

Then Joe sealed the deal by saying, "This is the God's honest truth. My word as a Biden."

So what is Biden word actually worth? Apparently, not much.

The actual incident occurred while Biden was a senator, not vice president. The man to be honored was an Army enlisted man — not a Navy captain — who did not, despite Joe's claims, turn down his medal. He was later also awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor by President Obama. He didn't refuse that, either. So, except for the location, the date, and the people involved; the medal involved; and the rejection of the medal (i.e., all those claims Biden made up), sure, "this is the God's honest truth."

Joe Biden exhibits the same "quick-draw" flaw liberals keep assigning to President Trump, who admittedly has a quick trigger finger when it comes to snappy tweets. How will that play out?

In the upcoming 2020 election, Biden's frequent "gaffes" (as the media like to call them — when it's Trump making the gaffes, they call them "lies") — will tend to neutralize what may be Trump's most significant potential election problem.

The press's longstanding defense of Biden, "That's just Joe being Joe," used so often when he was a relatively powerless, irrelevant vice president, will quickly wear thin with the public when he's the Democrat standard-bearer. This shared flaw will make it hard, even for the left-leaning mainstream media, to blame Trump while giving Biden a free pass. They'll try anyway, but it won't be easy.

Joe Biden brings other baggage to the election — baggage in terms of policy commitments — which may derail any campaign he dreams of running. Being led by the nose by fringe candidates and others on the socialist-progressive extreme left wing of his party, Biden is contributing to the polarizing of the 2020 electorate — and to his own downfall.

For instance, responding to a promise made by then-candidate Beto O'Rourke, Joe Biden recently called for a mandatory gun buyback program, one modeled on the laws enacted by New Zealand and Australia. He claims that this isn't actually gun confiscation, noting that under his plan, the government will compensate the owners, whether those owners want to sell their guns or not. To Biden, this buy-back means it's not "confiscation."

That semantic twist does not change the fact that gun-owners will be forced to surrender their firearms under penalty of law. That is, by any definition, confiscation. Calling Obamacare the "Affordable Care Act" didn't make it affordable, and calling it a buy-back won't make it anything other than confiscation.

Biden's bold stance against the Second Amendment's right to self-defense will bring otherwise apathetic voters to the polls in record numbers — not to support Biden's gun confiscation plan, but to support our constitutional right to keep and bear arms. That's got to be a plus for any conservative running for a hotly contested House seat.

Beyond his blatant gun confiscation plan, Joe Biden has also come out in favor of the Green New Deal. This is another unconstitutional proposal, originally put forth by Democrat socialist congressional representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), one that would, Ocasio-Cortez and her fellow advocates proclaim, "eliminate fossil fuels within ten years." Boldly asserting, without a shred of evidence, that this move would be a net gain for America, Ocasio-Cortez's plan — which has been estimated to cost an almost inconceivable $93 trillion dollars over ten years — would ban the sale of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, fuel oil, and even plastics.

As the Washington Post reported, "to that end, Biden's climate plan adopts the rhetoric — and at times, many of the actual policy proposals — of the Green New Deal." Biden confidently asserts that the Green New Deal will create millions of new jobs. How that would happen isn't clear. If Joe Biden has figured this out, he's not telling anyone.

Also not addressed in his Green New Deal is how the Army would operate its main battle tanks using wind power — or how the Air Force would fly its combat-capable aircraft, powered by solar power...especially at night. Beyond that, tens of thousands of major employers would be forced to shut down, either because they couldn't obtain the energy needed to run their businesses, or because their currently legal products would become banned by government fiat.

Those two new Biden policies — gun confiscation and the Green New Deal — are lightning rods for those Americans who might otherwise not vote for Trump.

There's another way that Joe Biden could inadvertently help America continue a movement toward more conservative values, including electing more conservative members of Congress. Joe may not know what's happening around him — and if he's nominated, that very lack of a tight grip on sanity could work in 2020 in favor of conservative candidates for the House, the Senate, and the presidency.

Image: Marc Nozell via Flickr.