Donald Trump jumped six points from the November poll, to 32 percent. | AP Photo Trump soars, Bush sinks in latest N.H. poll

Donald Trump is now the choice of nearly one-in-three likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, while Jeb Bush, who once pledged that he would win in the state, plummeted to just 4 percent in the latest Monmouth University poll.

With less than a month before the New Hampshire primary, the Republican polls are showing significant movement, and a competitive battle for second and third place within the margin of error.


Trump jumped six points from the November poll, to 32 percent, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, both at 14 percent. For Cruz, the results mark an increase of 5 points from the last survey, while for Kasich, Monday's poll is a three-point bump.

Kasich’s strong showing in this poll, combined with Bush's weak showing, could propel him onto the main stage in the next GOP debate, scheduled for Thursday night.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio drew 12 percent, statistically unchanged from two months ago, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie ticking up three points to 8 percent. Carly Fiorina remained at 5 percent, followed by Bush and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 4 percent each.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, meanwhile, plunged from 16 percent in November to 3 percent this time. Other candidates polled at 1 percent or less, with 3 percent undecided. In November, Carson trailed Trump by a mere 10 points.

For Bush, the latest poll marks a three-point drop from November and an eight-point decrease since last July, when the Manhattan businessman began his meteoric rise in most state and national polling.

About four-in-10 voters said they had met or seen at least one of the Republican or Democratic presidential candidates in New Hampshire, with 14 percent each saying they had seen or met Christie or Fiorina, 13 percent Trump, 11 percent Bush and Kasich, and 10 percent Rubio.

In terms of voter opinion, Cruz led the way at a net positive 33 points (57 percent favorable to 24 percent unfavorable), while Rubio came in second at +28 (56 percent to 28 percent).

Only Bush, who has expressed an unwavering belief as late as early November that he would win over New Hampshire voters, earned negative favorability (39 percent favorable to 47 percent unfavorable). By last week, however, the former governor of Florida would only say, "better than expected," when asked how he would perform in the state.

There's still plenty of fluidity in the state. About a month out from the Feb. 9 primary, roughly one-in-three likely voters — 32 percent — said they are completely set with their choice, while 42 percent indicated a strong preference. Just 15 percent said they had a slight preference, and 12 percent said they were undecided.

The poll was conducted by telephone from Jan. 7-10, surveying 414 New Hampshire voters likely to vote in the Republican primary. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.