THE Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank under Israel’s wary eye, is nearly broke. Israel collects $100m-plus every month on the PA’s behalf in customs dues and other credits from abroad and is supposed to hand over the money to the PA in Ramallah, its headquarters. But earlier this year, after the Palestinians applied to join the International Criminal Court, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, froze such transfers to mark his annoyance.

Israel has dished out this form of punishment before, though rarely for longer than a month or so. But this time Mr Netanyahu is unlikely to relent before the general election on March 17th, lest his right-wing foes accuse him of weakness. Thereafter it may take weeks, even months, for a government to be formed. So the Palestinians may have to stagger along without the transfers, which make up two-thirds of their budget, for a lot longer than usual.

By scraping together some loans, the PA managed to pay 60% of its public-sector salaries in January and February. But banks are starting to balk at lending more. The PA may struggle to pay its dues for March. Around 140,000 of the West Bank’s 2.4m people are public employees.

Gaza, the other slice of Palestinian territory, which is controlled by Hamas, an Islamist movement, is even worse off. Last year Hamas signed a unity pact with the nationalist Fatah movement, which runs the PA. It was supposed to ensure public-sector workers in Gaza were paid. But Gaza’s security forces have not had their salaries for the past eight months.

Israeli security forces rely on the PA to co-operate with them on security. But General Benny Gantz, who recently stepped down as Israel’s military chief, has warned of the danger that might ensue if the Palestinian forces can no longer be paid. Israel’s defence minister and its national security adviser have both recently urged Israel’s main electricity company to relent, after it twice cut off supplies to the West Bank cities of Nablus and Jenin because the PA is said to owe it $500m.

Already violence has risen. Car-bombings and attempted assassinations have increased. Militants in Gaza calling themselves the Islamic State have threatened Palestinian intellectuals and have briefly kidnapped a local journalist. Palestinian leaders are to meet on March 8th to discuss cutting security co-operation with Israel. Jibril Rajoub, a former security chief, has given warning that violence could spread still faster.

Such threats have previously tended to prove empty. This time things may be different. The PA is increasingly unloved by Palestinians. Mahmoud Abbas, its president, is nearly 80, ten years into a four-year term, and suffering from a loss of public credibility with peace talks hopelessly deadlocked. The Israeli army has preemptively stepped up raids in the West Bank, detaining suspected militants and seizing ammunition caches. Officers fear that any small confrontation—like a shoot-out near Bethlehem this week that left a Palestinian teenager dead—may explode into a much wider conflict.