EDITOR’S NOTE: Hoop Arithmetic is a new, maybe-long-running series from the GoodHoops Analytics Department (meaning Paul Ibrahim). A Timberwolves fan, Paul combines deep-seated love of the game with a wonk’s internal knowledge of advanced basketball statistics to provide us with a comparison between two “sub-stars” in today’s game: the Canadian swingman duo of Minnesota’s Andrew Wiggins and Denver’s Jamal Murray.

This article will use statistical analysis and essential subjectivity to compare and contrast two of the NBA’s young players fighting to rise above mediocrity: Andrew Wiggins and Jamal Murray. This comparison will review seven categories (listed below), each given a multiplicative to regulate precedent.

There will be 100 total points given out in each category, and I will subjectively grant each player a number of points based on the analysis provided. Each players score for that section will be multiplied by that section’s given multiplicative, and the sum of all their scores will determine their final score. The highest possible score is 100, and the lowest is 0. The player with the highest score wins. Let’s get started!

Seven Categories (Ranked by gravity):

Adjusted Statistics (per 36 minutes) Relative to Usage Factored Emphasis: 31% (0.31 multiplicative) Potential/Ceiling Factored Emphasis: 22% (0.22 multiplicative) Vitals Factored Emphasis: 13% (0.13 multiplicative) Basics Factored Emphasis: 12% (0.12 multiplicative) Proven Malleability Factored Emphasis: 9% (0.09 multiplicative) Shown Improvement/Year-Year Differences Factored Emphasis: 7% (0.07 multiplicative) CARMELO/TPA Projections Factored Emphasis: 6% (0.06 multiplicative)

(Abbreviation Glossary is listed below)

Category 1: Adjusted Statistics (per 36 minutes) Relative to Usage

In this category, I adjust a player’s essential per 36 minutes statistics (PPG, TRB, etc.) by using a consistent usage throughout. For this model, we used a baseline usage of 20%. I will analyze the significance of these numbers through collation with advanced statistics and select inputted subjectivity.

Player PPG TRPG APG DPG* TPG CUMU* PER TS% BPM VORP Andrew Wiggins 14.96 3.33 1.45 0.77 1.36 3.83 12.9 50% -3 -0.2 Jamal Murray 16.21 3.62 3.62 0.58 2.06 4.40 16.4 56% -0.4 0.4

It is evident that when Andrew Wiggins and Jamal Murray’s statistics are adjusted to be on a level playing field, Murray clearly outmatches Wiggins, outscoring him by 0.57 in CUMU (1). (For reference, Lebron James has a CUMU score of 7.18, league average is about 4.) Additionally, Murray has the clear advantage in all four of the advanced statistics listed. However, despite these evident advantages, when ranking an individual player, it is necessary to take into account the team and system being run.

To show the difference in system, I googled “Jamal Murray highlights” and did the same for Wiggins. I took the very first play I saw and put them in. The videos are below:

Jamal Murray:

Andrew Wiggins:

Mike Malone’s Denver offense is regulated, calculated, and organized. They play team basketball, constantly moving the ball around the perimeter, similar to the Warriors, just with less talent and shooting ability. On the other hand, Thibodeau’s Timberwolves play unorganized iso-ball. Their offense seems to be entirely improvised, as they take turns taking their defenders on one-on-one. Both of these observations are palpably substantiated through these two videos. In the first, we see Jameer Nelson drive into the lane, drawing in the likes of Salah Mejri, Jonathan Gibson, and most importantly, Justin Anderson. It was Anderson’s job to cover the two players on the rightmost third of the perimeter, but he was forced to turn around upon Jameer Nelson’s drive, giving Jameer the space to kick it to Wilson Chandler in the corner. Anderson overreacted, and frantically turned toward Chandler, allowing Murray to unnoticeably shift left, to which he received a pass from Wilson Chandler and nailed the open three.

Now, take a look at Wiggins’ highlight. It’s a play straight out of my elementary rec team. Give the ball to the one good kid who plays AAU (Andrew Wiggins), and have the tall uncoordinated kid whose mom signed him up (Gorgui Dieng) set a half-hearted screen, upon which the talented kid would use to slightly delay his defender and hits the jump shot. Although that strategy might take the Raleigh Roadrunners to the rec-league championship game in which the talented kid missed a 3 at the buzzer to give us the detestable runner-up trophies (I still haven’t forgiven you, Tristan), that offense is very inefficient and seldom works in the NBA. Not only is it a long midrange jump shot, which he shoots at a 36 percent clip, it was also contested, further lowering the probability of it going in the cylinder. Not to mention, the off-season addition of Jimmy Butler hasn’t helped Andrew Wiggins’ offensive numbers. We’ll get deeper into that in the improvement/year-year progression section.

Bottom-line, Murray beats Wiggins in the statistics displayed by a pretty wide margin, but the numbers don’t tell the whole story, as their respective situations are very different.

Points Awarded for this Section (Unadjusted)

Murray: 72.85

Wiggins: 27.15

Total Score to this Point:

Murray: 22.58

Wiggins: 8.42

Category 2: Potential/Ceiling

In this category, I use both quantitative and qualitative observations to analyze a player and subjectively set my perceived ceiling and best player comparison for the respective player.

To determine a player’s potential, we must first analyze how they play and the strengths in their game in comparison to how the NBA game as a whole is evolving. First, let’s set the baseline of the NBA’s future. It is common thought that relatively soon, the NBA will progress to a state of positionless basketball in which ten 7-footers will roam the court with ambiguous style with much more emphasis placed on scoring and 3-point/high quality shots. Of course, we are far from this state, and it will likely not arrive in its fullest form by the culmination of either. However, of the two players presented, Andrew Wiggins is obviously much better equipped for this coming age. He has all the physical tools along with the basketball skills to succeed in the coming era. On the other hand, although he has a better frame than most point guards, Murray is still under the average NBA height, though his seven-foot wingspan nearly makes up for it. Despite this, Wigs has the advantage in pure build.

Next, we’ll look at ceiling. To determine each player’s ceiling, I didn’t take statistics into account whatsoever. I purely used the eye test to determine what I thought the best possible version of each player was. Take into account these may seem extravagant, but I am considering the best possible scenario for each player. For Jamal Murray, I determined his ceiling to be Damian Lillard. A literal carbon copy. I drew many parallels between their respective games:

Both like to drive and get to the rim or pull-up from the free-throw line. Both are excellent finishers.

Both are lengthy guards who can make an impact defensively, but reside to mediocrity.

Both can be proficient passers when in the right system, but neither are pass-first players.

In fact, Jamal Murray’s ceiling and Damian Lillard are so identical they have decided to enter into the NBA’s duplicate award, awarded to the NBA’s two most indistinguishable players. Their competitors for the award are Markeiff and Marcus Morris; Lance Stephenson and Kevin Hart; and the front-runner, Adam Silver and E.T.

Now, on to Wiggins. This pick will be controversial, and I will be accused of just being a Timberwolves homer (which I will never deny), but I personally think that Andrew Wiggins’ ceiling is a reciprocated Kawhi Leonard. I think Andrew Wiggins has the potential to be on offense what Kawhi is on defense, and on defense what Kawhi is on offense. Wigs will always primarily be an offensive player, and throughout his career he has shown little improvement or effort for that matter on defense. However, lest you forget what the immaculate basketball dorks repeat on every podcast: all the tools are there. Andrew Wiggins has every possible defensive tool to be a defender on par with Jimmy Butler (whose defense I associate as the reciprocal of Kawhi’s offense), not to mention one of the great defensive minds in the game (yes, I said it. he made Jimmy Butler, Prime Joakim, and Taj). As for the offense, throughout the duration of his career to this point he has a very similar offensive style to that of Kawhi. They both shoot midrange shots at a higher tendency than league average and they both play a lot of iso ball on offense. I think at his ceiling, Wigs can be a top 3 scorer in the league. Once again, for the protection of myself and my family I will say it again: I doubt that either of these players will reach the level I described; I just think that that is the highest possible level they both could reach.

Bottom-line: Wigs has better physical tools and a higher ceiling because of it.

Points Awarded for this Section (Unadjusted)

Murray: 25

Wiggins: 75

Total Score to this Point:

Murray: 28.08

Wiggins: 24.92

Category 3: Vitals

In this category, I will analyze a player’s physical attributes and which is advantageous for each.

Player Height Weight Wingspan Height to Weight Height to Wingspan Jamal Murray 6’4 207 7’0 0.37 0.90 Andrew Wiggins 6’8 199 7’0 0.40 0.95

The ratios may be confusing:

For height to weight, higher number=skinnier

Height to Wingspan: Lower number means higher differential (better)

Right off the bat (It’s a baseball idiom; gosh nerds, get in touch with reality), Wiggins’ numbers are more impressive than Murray’s. Murray has better ratios for his height, but in terms of sheer numbers Wiggins is obviously more physically gifted in terms of frame, and I would also say he is the more explosive athlete of the two. now, what is the significance of physical frame? Obviously, as stated earlier, it better equips a player for the future of the NBA. However, it’s more than that. Let’s look at arguably the best player from each decade since the 50’s: George Mikan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and most recently, LeBron James. What do each of these players have in common? They all possessed greater physical attributes than anyone of their time. The first three (Mikan, Chamberlain, and Abdul-Jabbar) were obviously giants, and in the primeval ages of the NBA not many people could block their shot or stop them in the post. The last three (Johnson, Jordan, and Lebron) all played in the relative “modern” NBA, so why were they so dominant? Well for Johnson, he had the size of a center, yet he had the passing, dribble, and agility of a six-foot point guard, making matchups impossible. Jordan was possibly the greatest athlete this world had ever seen, and as a result dominated his era. Lebron might very well be the greatest combination of speed, strength, agility, and control since Bo Jackson. To be an all-star or a great player, it can occur with any set of physical skills. However, to be a potential GOAT, you must have innate physical skills. I by no means think Wiggins or Murray will get to that point, but I do think it is worth noting that Wiggins’ physical frame gives him a significant advantage.

Bottom-line: Wiggins possesses greater physical skills which will benefit him in the long run.

Points Awarded for this Section (Unadjusted)

Murray: 36.71

Wiggins: 63.29

Total Score to this Point:

Murray: 32.85

Wiggins: 33.15

Well, that’s it for this one folks! Remember to read Part II, which will come a little later (except for you nerds; you are all forbidden by the immortal Dragon Lord from reading my next article).

Good Day,

Paul Ibrahim

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Abbreviation Glossary:

CUMU: Cumulative average of per-36-minute adjusted statistics. Turnovers are treated as negatives.

DPG: An average of a player’s per-36-minute adjusted steals and blocks

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