Tigers must consider benefits of being sellers at deadline

Detroit -- Few, if any teams have been more aggressive in pursuit of a championship than the Tigers, who, in the last decade, have made one big free-agent signing or blockbuster trade after another.

From overpaying for Pudge Rodriguez to trading for Yoenis Cespedes, Tigers president and general manager Dave Dombrowski has had his foot on the gas pedal -- with a trade for Miguel Cabrera and the signing of Prince Fielder in between, among many other top-ticket moves.

In fact, the Tigers have been practically permanent buyers since Feb. 6, 2004, the day the team, fresh off a 119-loss season gave Rodriguez, fresh off a World Series championship with the Marlins, a four-year, $40-million contract that stunned the baseball world.

That was the first of a flurry of game-shattering trades by the Tigers that turned them into perennial contenders, leading to five playoff appearances in the last nine years, and only the Cardinals (six) and Yankees (six) have reached the postseason more often during that span.

In short, the only white flag the Tigers have waved lately has been either an American League or AL Central championship banner, raised to the clouds in those Opening Day ceremonies.

Soon, though, very soon, the Tigers, owners of four consecutive division titles, will arrive at a crossroads -- having to decide if they'll try in earnest to make it five straight, no matter the long odds, or if they'll actually be sellers at the July 31 trade deadline.

There are arguments on both sides: They can make a strong case for buying, as the AL is so wide open this year; all 15 teams were within seven games of a playoff spot after Monday's games. But if the Tigers sell, they have the assets to restock their depleted farm system in such a hurry, it would surprise nobody if they're in position for a World Series run as early as next summer.

This decision doesn't need to be made today, but time is running out. Through Monday, the Tigers were 42-40, 5.5 games back of the Royals in the division and 1.5 games back of the league's second wild-card spot.

If they get hot over the next three weeks -- and that's certainly possible, with six more games against the lowly Mariners, four against a Twins team the Tigers have absolutely owned in 2015, and three each against the Orioles and Red Sox -- the decision to buy will be easy.

But there's been no signs the Tigers can sustain success since starting the season 11-2, and so three more weeks of mediocrity -- particularly with Cabrera (calf) out until mid-August, at least -- seems most likely.

In that case, selling must be on Dombrowski's table, even if the owner, Mike Ilitch, is desperate to bring even one World Series championship to the team he's owned since 1992.

Wild race

Each of the last four years, in late July, the Tigers have pulled off a major trade to upgrade their playoff-bound roster -- Doug Fister from the Mariners in 2011; Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante from the Marlins in 2012; Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox in 2013; and Joakim Soria from the Rangers and David Price from the Rays in 2014.

There was no mistaking the Tigers; they were buyers.

Of course, the Tigers were squarely in first place when each of those trades were made -- from a low of 1.5 games (Fister; Sanchez and Infante) to 6.0 games (Soria).

Given the landscape of the AL Central this year, there's almost zero chance the Tigers will be in first place entering the final week of July. The first-place Royals, fresh off a World Series appearance, have had command of the division since the first month of the season, plus the Tigers also have to worry about the Twins, who've refused to go away this year and are in second place.

That's two teams the Tigers must leapfrog, with the hot Indians lurking just behind in the division standings.

The Tigers also have two teams — the Twins and Orioles — between themselves and the second wild card, and that's to say nothing of the Rays, Blue Jays and Rangers, who are right there with the Tigers in the clustered wild-card standings.

You can see, then, the challenge facing the Tigers isn't just the games deficit, but the number of teams they'll have to beat out.

It also doesn't help the Tigers don't get another crack at the Royals until Aug. 4-6, theoretically after they already have decided if they'll be buying or selling.

Now, that's not to say the Tigers can't rally and win this thing. But they'd need help -- from the Royals, who do have a tough July schedule, and on their own roster.

The Tigers can hit, no question. They've finally woken up the bats, and even in Cabrera's absence, a lineup that includes Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes remains among the most feared in the AL. Detroit has scored 33 runs in its last four games, and leads the division in runs by a wide margin.

Problem is, the Tigers also lead in the division in runs allowed, and it's plenty fair to question whether the Tigers can adequately fix that problem.

The Tigers rotation has three significant holes, after Price and Sanchez. Alfredo Simon is showing what some would say are his true colors, Justin Verlander remains a subpar pitcher no matter how much progress he swears he's making, and Kyle Ryan remains just a stop gap until Shane Greene proves he's ready to return to the major leagues. Keep in mind, that might not happen in 2015.

At minimum, the Tigers would need to trade for one starter, and probably two. And before you remind us that the Giants won the World Series on the strength of just one pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, in 2014, and the Tigers have a horse in Price who could duplicate that, the Tigers need more than him to get to the World Series, considering that severe deficit in the division.

For instance, if it's going to take 90 wins to take the Central, Detroit will need to go 48-32 the rest of the way, and they'll need much more than Price to do that.

Then there's the bullpen, which remains an issue, if not the mess that it's been in recent seasons. Beyond Soria at closer and Alex Wilson in the setup role, Brad Ausmus is playing a game of Russian Roulette on a nightly basis.

Dombrowski is at his best when the rest of baseball assumes he can't pull off the big deal. Somehow, he always does -- but if he wants to get, say, Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels, Dan Haren and Francisco Rodriguez (this is a total "for instance"), it'll be tricky. For starters, the Tigers farm system has been so depleted by trades that last summer in trading for Price, they had to part with two key members of the major-league roster in Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly, and this roster might not be able to sustain any missing pieces.

Three minor-leaguers to keep an eye on: center fielder Derek Hill, shortstop Dixon Machado and right-hander Buck Farmer. Those are the Tigers' top trade chips, and they can land them something -- but probably not everything they need, especially when you consider prices should soar considering every AL team could claim to be "in it."

Even if the Tigers find themselves too far back in the division, they could still remain buyers because of their place in the wild-card standings -- after all, the Giants and Royals both made the World Series last fall after starting from the wild-card position.

But given the coin-flip nature of the wild card these days -- no matter the talent differential, a one-game playoff might only go to the favorite 55 times out of 100 -- is that really enough for the Tigers to hold onto?

You could make the case.

Not necessarily a good one, however.

Looking ahead

There's something special about playoff streaks. Just ask the Red Wings, who love to brag about the fact they've made the postseason 24 consecutive seasons.

The Tigers are a long way from that, but four years in a row (and potentially five) is quite the feather in the cap for baseball, where parity is alive and well. Consider, 26 of 30 teams have made the postseason since the Tigers made the World Series in 2006.

But despite two trips to the World Series -- they also went in 2012 -- the Tigers still haven't won it all since 1984, and staying the current course might do more harm than good. That's not what Ilitch wants to hear after outspending his market size for years, but it's reality.

That's why the Tigers might be best served crying "uncle" on this season and selling off five or six assets.

The Tigers are in the unique position of carrying six free-agents-to-be who'd all appeal, on some level, to a contender -- Price, Soria, Cespedes, Simon, Rajai Davis and Alex Avila.

Trading one, three or all of them could do the Tigers a world of good in the trade market. Conservative estimates, should Detroit deal all them all, would net the Tigers eight to 10 prospects and a quality major-leaguer or two.

The payroll for this team will remain sky high for years to come, thanks to the contracts of Cabrera, Verlander, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler. J.D. Martinez is going to be getting a behemoth raise very soon, and Jose Iglesias' salary is going up, too.

You can see, then, the desperate need for young, cheap, controllable talent.

If the Tigers go this route, by the way, don't call it a rebuild. Call it, instead, an accelerated reloading.

Even with such trades, the Tigers would have a fine nucleus of talent that also includes Anthony Gose, James McCann and coming-around Nick Castellanos, plus Wilson.

And nobody's saying they couldn't then be aggressive next winter. Heck, they could go out and bring back Price, Soria and Cespedes if they so choose. They could even turn around and deal some of the theoretical netted prospects for additional talent.

And they'd likely be right back in the hunt in 2016, perhaps even better suited for that elusive championship, while staying the course this summer could do damage that could be felt for years. Just ask the Phillies, who are a disaster these days, after holding on far too long.

It's quite an issue for Ilitch, who's all about the present, but also understands he has a responsibility to consider the long-term health of the franchise.

It's also understandable, of course, that fans don't go for tear-downs. Attendance, under this scenario, would almost certainly fall off a cliff in August and September. Of course, attendance would drop off, too, if the Tigers aren't anywhere to be found in the playoff race.

That's a very real possibility, by the way.

And so, everything must be on the table.

Yes, even selling, as weird as that sounds.

tpaul@detroitnews.com

twitter.com/tonypaul1984

Big winners

Playoff appearances since start of 2006:

6 -- Cardinals, Yankees

5 -- Tigers, Dodgers, Phillies

4 -- Angels, A's, Rays, Red Sox

3 -- Giants, Reds, Braves, Rangers, Twins

2 -- Orioles, Nationals, Pirates, Indians, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Cubs

1 -- Royals, White Sox, Mets, Padres