Dem poll analysis: Exploit advantages

Six months out from Election Day, with the Republican primary drawing to a close, there has been a predictable tightening in the Presidential race, according to the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll.

While no one would ever mistake Mitt Romney as the consensus candidate of a still-skeptical GOP, many have underestimated this facile candidate’s ability to “Etch A Sketch” his way to competitive standing in the general election. It is true that voters like the President personally and by dominant margins see him as the better standard-bearer for the interests of the middle class; the anniversary of the daring raid on bin Laden and a 26th month of consecutive job growth should only burnish the President’s image as a successful Commander-in-Chief. However, many voters remain pessimistic in their outlook for the country and a core of the electorate is undecided about the impact of the President’s economic policies. Democrats face twin challenges: first, securing credit for their economic successes while extending the debate over a level playing field for America’s middle class beyond taxes to include robust plans for further job creation, and second, bringing Romney’s record and vision for the future into stark relief. The window for providing this definition is closing.


For his part, the President’s personal popularity is unparalleled. Fully seven-in-ten voters approve of him personally, including a solid 56% majority who approves of him strongly. Obama’s strong personal approval outpaces Romney’s overall approval (55%); only 29% of voters strongly approve of Romney. Obama’s approval transcends traditional gender, age, racial, educational, and ideological divides—even earning the approval of 43% of Republicans. Romney has far less crossover appeal, still nursing the wounds of a particularly nasty primary battle—including among such swing constituencies as moderates.

Today, the vote is driven by Obama’s job performance ratings (48% approve, 48% disapprove) much more than his personal approval. Ninety-two percent of those who approve of the President’s job performance vote for him; 92% of those who disapprove of his performance vote for Romney. Among those who are unsure of the job he is doing, 40% vote for Romney, 30% vote for Obama, and 30% are undecided. The way for Democrats to win is to make this election a clear choice.

On the Presidential and Congressional ballots, both sides are deadlocked in statistical ties (47% Obama to 48% Romney and 43% Democrat to 45% Republican, respectively). Irrespective of Romney’s fraught path to his Party’s nomination, Republican enthusiasm to turn out in November is piqued: 78% of Republicans are extremely likely to vote, compared to 69% of Democrats and 69% of independents. While this partisan dynamic is not unusual (Democrats typically lag on this measure and report greater motivation only as Election Day nears), it calls into question early reports of Republican factionalism and demoralization; it also serves as a reminder that antipathy can be an even greater motivator than affection in politics.

Despite differing levels of motivation at this relatively early point in the general election campaign, both sides are consolidating their partisans about equally, with Obama winning 90% of Democrats and Romney winning 92% of Republicans. The tightening in the Presidential race is driven by independents and voters in toss-up states, each now supporting Romney (+10 and +8, respectively). The President posts commanding leads among voters who are single (+40) and self-described moderates (+39), edges out Romney among Catholic voters (+6), and retains a base of support among younger voters (+17 Obama among those under 30).

Romney is recovering among women. While Obama wins women under 45 by 20 points, he has lost ground among women over 45 (+5 Romney today from +20 Obama in February), and has seen attrition among other swing groups of women voters, including blue-collar women (+17 Romney from +22 Obama) and independent women (+9 Romney from +28 Obama). These developments may seem odd, given Romney’s prescription of economic austerity for all but the 1% and the GOP’s prolonged assault on women’s health policy, but they underscore the extent to which Romney has already managed to separate himself from his Party’s and—more troubling—his own extremist agenda. Moreover, they expose the relatively free pass Romney has been given with regard to his career as a “vulture” capitalist at Bain (excepting the internecine attacks in the GOP primary).

Juxtaposing Obama and Romney on the issues underscores a wealth of opportunities for the President, who is in superior shape on most fronts. Obama boasts decisive advantages on the dimensions of standing up for the middle class (+23), foreign policy (+13), sharing your values (+10), and even the one-time GOP stronghold of taxes (+6). Obama’s advantage on sharing your values is most highly correlated with his advantage on taxes. However, when it comes to the fulcrum of electoral fortunes—jobs and the economy—voters are more divided in their judgments. The President edges out Romney on jobs (+2 Obama) while Romney performs loosely better on the economy (+3 Romney), though both leads are well within the survey’s margin of error.

The attitudes of undecided voters are key. They comprise only a sliver of the electorate but tend to be independent, secular, and downscale. They like Obama personally (65% approve) but are much more unsure of Romney (30% approve, 33% disapprove, 38% unsure). They are critical of the President’s job performance—30% approve, 45% disapprove, and 25% unsure, and in particular, the President's performance on the economy (64% disapprove). At the same time, independents—who largely make up the undecided vote—give Obama a whopping 27-point advantage on standing up for the middle class, an 11-point advantage on sharing your values, and a 7-point advantage on taxes, but put Romney ahead on the economy (+20 Romney) and jobs (+16 Romney). Democrats, the President, and their allies need to define Romney on the economy by his record and policies before Romney is able to define himself as “Mr. Fix-It.”

While only 42% of voters believe the economy is strong and growing or that we are in a recovery, a smaller percentage—just 35%—believe we are in, or are approaching, a recession. A pivotal 22% believe the economy is stuck in idle. Voters also believe that the number one indicator of a recovering economy is jobs and employment. Obama wins voters who say that jobs are their number one issue (+20 Obama). At the same time, he loses voters who say the economy is their top issue (+8 Romney). In the context of elevated unemployment, depressed demand, and longer hours and lower wages for those who are employed, Obama may never get the credit he deserves for 26 straight months of job growth. Nevertheless, engaging a robust debate about the competing visions for the middle class in this country can help produce more decisive advantages for the President on these central criteria of the office. It is also important to note that voters’ agenda has shifted somewhat to an economic focus rooted in kitchen-table economics including wages, benefits, and prices. Democrats now face a situation where sharing your values is less about social issues and morals and more about who you are in touch with and being for the middle class. Democrats need to translate their advantages on being for the middle class and sharing your values to being good on the economy and jobs.

The two Parties remain locked at the Congressional level as well: 43% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 45% for the Republican candidate. The closeness of the margin, however, overshadows troubling movement among independent voters. While independents fueled Democrats’ narrow advantage in November of last year, they were already affording the GOP a 4-point margin in February, and today that margin has grown to 10 points. There is a gender gap as well, with women voting for the Democrat by 5 points and men for the Republican by 9 points.

Democrats mirror the President’s advantage on standing up for the middle class (+16), and draw leads over the Republicans on Social Security and Medicare (+7), and health care (+5). However, Republican advantages on jobs and the economy (+6 and +10, respectively) overshadow those leads and inhibit Democrats’ ability to pull ahead on the Congressional ballot. In order to rectify these deficits and achieve some separation from a reviled Congress (just 13% approve of the job Congress is doing), Democrats also must communicate both plans and progress on the economy, and find ways in the coming months to exploit the GOP’s reflexive opposition to the President’s middle-class economic agenda. In addition, Democratic initiatives to level the playing field for the vast majority of taxpayers are extremely popular. A 47% plurality of voters would assign a tax percentage upwards of 30% to millionaires, and 71% of voters would assign a tax rate greater than the 15.4% effective rate that Romney paid in 2011.

The trends suggest a real fight for Democrats at all electoral levels. Bracketing Romney and the Republican majority in Congress remains an imperative, as does elucidating Romney’s record as a job destroyer at Bain. But the President and his Party have several economic advantages to capitalize on over the coming months. Ensuring a more level playing field for working and middle class Americans is undoubtedly a central point of contrast between the two Parties, but the President and Democrats must extend this message beyond taxes and connect it to the creation of American jobs and the economy. Ultimately, the Party with greater credibility on job creation and the economy is the Party likely to win in November. The primary imperative for the President and Democrats is to lay out their economic agenda for the middle class and draw a sharp contrast with Romney and the Republicans on their records and their positions.