Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

Everything for the next few months is about the EU vote

One of the great problems with referenda is that by the time we get to polling day the issue might have moved on from the issue on the ballot paper to a vote of confidence in the incumbent government. Arguably the AV vote in 2011 became about Nick Clegg.

This has always been a big danger for the REMAIN campaign and is an explanation of why Cameron has been so keen to get it over quickly. I also think that there’s a lot in Tim Montgomerie’s argument. What we are seeing is a government in almost pre-election mode wanting to remain popular.

Will it work? The latest polling suggests that the battle could be tight.

Revised and up to date – the #EURef polls for past 2 months pic.twitter.com/y3fh3WXtG9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 1, 2016

Mike Smithson

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