Todd Spangler

Detroit Free Press

Coming off a strong showing on Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton goes into Sunday’s debate in Flint with rival Bernie Sanders with a commanding 25-point lead in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary, according to a new Free Press poll that suggests it may be too late for him to battle back to a victory here despite a strong effort in recent days.

The survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters by EPIC-MRA of Lansing showed widespread support for Clinton, the former secretary of state and first lady, who with a win in Michigan on Tuesday could build on her already considerable lead in the delegate count over Sanders, and further improve her momentum heading into key contests the following week, including those in Florida, Ohio and Illinois.

The poll, done for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and their outstate polling partners, shows Clinton with a 56%-31% margin over Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont. Even that numerical advantage doesn't fully convey the strength of her candidacy among Democratic primary voters in Michigan, however, given that she has leads among most demographic groups of age, income, race and geography in the state.

“I think she’s well positioned (to win Tuesday),” said Bernie Porn, EPIC-MRA’s pollster, who also noted that Clinton has an even higher lead — 67% to 24% — among absentee voters, who could make up a sizable portion of voters. “It will be very difficult for Bernie to make inroads.”

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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Clinton, who won a close victory over Sanders in the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses and then lost big to Sanders in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 9, has been on something of a roll since: winning in Nevada and South Carolina, and then taking seven of the 11 states voting last Tuesday.

In Michigan, Clinton has been a strong presence for months, having focused early on the crisis of high lead levels detected in the tap water in Flint and meeting with the new mayor, Karen Weaver, who in January threw her support behind Clinton. With the Flint water crisis resonating in Democratic political circles nationwide and among the African-American community, it only served to bolster her standing.

Sanders, meanwhile, also has made overtures in Flint, but came to the issue a little later than Clinton did. Even so, in recent days he has been burning up the airwaves with TV ads and increased his attention on Michigan, chiding Clinton's past support for trade policies which some Michiganders say have cost the state jobs, and sending surrogates out to drum up support in Detroit.

On Monday, Sanders was set to take part in a town hall debate with Fox News Channel's Bret Baier from Detroit's Gem Theatre, an event Clinton's campaign initially said she wouldn't attend because of a scheduling conflict but is now expected to participate in.

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But Clinton might have been able to afford to miss it, with the latest poll showing support for her that is both wide and deep. While both she and Sanders had high favorability ratings — him 73%, her 80% — Clinton was better at turning that into actual support: She led in every geographic area of the state except one — central Michigan, where Michigan State University is located — and in the most populous one, metro Detroit, 55%-28%.

Sanders, as was expected, had an advantage among younger voters, gaining the support of a whopping 65% of those 18-34 years old, compared with 28% for Clinton. But with that group making up only an expected 11% of the electorate, it was vastly outweighed by Clinton's support among other age groups, which topped 50% for those 35-49 and 50-65 and topped 70% among those over 65.

If turnout among younger voters skyrockets, or if older voters stay home in droves, it could help Sanders. But those trends would likely have to be pronounced — and in tandem — for the effect to change the outcome.

"I would be very surprised if Hillary Clinton doesn't win on Tuesday and she doesn't win big," said Susan Demas, the publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, which analyzes political trends in the state. "I’m seeing no signs that Bernie Sanders is gaining momentum."

According to the Free Press poll, self-described independents and Republicans who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary supported Sanders. But their numbers were overwhelmed by Democratic voters who backed Clinton 60%-28%.

And Clinton also appeared to have locked down much of her support. About 73% of respondents said they already were “very certain” of their choice. And of those, 67% were backing Clinton. As was expected, Clinton also has an edge with black voters, 66%-14%, but also was winning with white Democratic primary voters 55%-35% — an edge that if it held up Tuesday, could signal a landslide.

"Hillary Clinton is in very good shape," said Michael Traugott, of the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan, who not only expects her to do well in Michigan but in the rest of the country and prove a formidable candidate in the general election this fall.

"There are no candidates as experienced as she is across a broad range of issues," he said. "And the fact that she’s a woman would be a tremendous advantage in the fall campaign."

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or at tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.