Twenty-five years ago this week, the Berlin Wall came down. German was reunited with German – and an arbitrary and brutal division of Europe was, at last, at an end. It was a great moment in European history – a triumph of freedom over repression. Of humanity over barbarism. It brought a great nation together, and paved the way for Europe to widen and grow. I rejoiced then and I rejoice now. And yet, on this anniversary, another great nation may be poised to leave the European Union. Let me state my own conviction from the outset. I have not a shred of doubt that the UK is far better off inside the European Union as an active member. And I will work hard to achieve that end. I know that, during the 40 years of our membership, we have never been a comfortable partner. Within our country, there has always been a dissenting minority, unhappy at our place in Europe, and eager to persuade us to leave. As the EU has moved from economic to political co-operation, that minority of malcontents has grown. In England, which is 85% of the population of the United Kingdom, opposition has reached a critical mass and now, for the first time, there is a serious possibility that our electorate could vote to leave the EU. I put the chance of exit at just under 50%. But if the negotiations go badly that percentage will rise. Conversely, with genuine reform, it will fall. I ask our European partners to realise we are close to a breach that is in no-one’s interest. Britain’s frustration is no game. It is not a political ploy to gain advantages and concessions from our partners. There is a very real risk of separation that could damage the future of the United Kingdom – and Europe as a whole. That is why I so welcomed your invitation to speak here this evening. I know of no better platform to sound the alarm that the United Kingdom and the European Union are at risk of parting company: and that, if we do, the outcome will diminish us both.