Government paralysis as a result of Brexit risks undermining the UK’s defence forces, according to a report by one of the country’s leading defence specialists, Prof Malcolm Chalmers.

Chalmers, the deputy director general of the London-based defence thinktank the Royal United Services Institute, says hard decisions are being postponed, with the knock-on effect that the UK’s military reputation overseas is in danger of being eroded.



In January, the government postponed defence budget decisions, originally scheduled to be made that month until at least the summer.

“The government is increasingly perceived to be unable to make difficult decisions, distracted by Brexit and unable to play an international role that is commensurate with the resources it devotes to this purpose,” writes Chalmers, who is also an adviser to parliament’s joint committee on the national security strategy.



“The longer this policy paralysis continues, the greater the risk to the UK’s reputation as a reliable ally, and the stronger the (unfair) perception that it is no longer capable of being a serious security player. With talks on the EU’s future relationship with the UK approaching a critical moment, this is not a helpful message.”



A national security review, overseen by the Cabinet Office, began last summer. In the face of opposition from Conservative and Labour MPs about possible defence budget cuts, the government backed down and postponed decisions by announcing a separate defence review.

The Ministry of Defence has to resolve the dilemma of how to shift resources to meet modern challenges such as cyber-attacks while at the same time facing an orchestrated campaign from MPs and former military chiefs to retain traditional forces.



In his 20-page report, Decision Time: The National Security Capability Review 2017-2018 and Defence, Chalmers predicts the review could lead to fresh investment in new technologies relevant to defence such as artificial intelligence, improved communications, cyber and electronic warfare, and better protection against missiles.



He reiterates recent warnings from defence ministers and military chiefs about the potential threat posed by Russia, particularly in the use of social media and cyber espionage.

Conventional military forces will have to adapt rapidly to technological change, he argues. “Yet, the more radical the commitment to rapid fielding of new disruptive technologies, the less useful the traditional measures of military capability – numbers of ships, manned combat aircraft and regular full-time army personnel – become as indicators of national military power,” writes Chalmers.

Other potential moves emerging from the review could include changes in recruitment to attract better skilled personnel, Chalmers writes. A major money-saver would be to slow the pace of deployment of 48 F-35B planes, which are estimated to cost £9.1bn, and also to delay modernisation of the Apache helicopter fleet.

Q&A How much is the UK government spending on cyberwarfare? Show Hide The British government is projected to spend £1.9bn on cybersecurity between 2016 and 2021. This is for all departments, including the MoD, the surveillance agency GCHQ and GCHQ's front window, the National Cyber Security Centre.

But the MoD is way behind in spending on cybersecurity, its involvement minuscule compared with GCHQ and the NCSC. The MoD proudly announced in 2016 it was building a new cyber-defence operations centre at its Corsham base in Wiltshire but the amount, £40m, is tiny compared with overall departmental spending.

To balance such changes, he foresees cuts to traditional forces, such as a reduction in the overall size of the full-time army, which at present is supposed to be 82,000 but is only 77,440. Chalmers envisages further cuts, with gaps being filled by greater use of reservists.

He also predicts some politically sensitive cuts might have to be made. “The review is likely to involve some sacrifice of lower-priority capabilities, including those that have enjoyed a degree of political salience in public debate,” he said.

Conservatives, backed by some Labour MPs, are opposing proposed cuts to the overall size of the Royal Marines and the taking out of service of two amphibious assault ships, HMS Bulwark and HMS Albion.

Chalmers has a double-edged approach to defence spending. On the one hand, he argues that the UK’s defence budget remains substantial compared with European allies. On the other, he says the budget increase that emerged from the 2015 strategic review is insufficient to do everything ministers want to do.