LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Do the Oscars matter anymore when it comes to bringing in the box-office dollars?

Maybe once, but now box-office success depends on a myriad of factors: which movie you’re talking about, who made it, when the studio released it and whether the studio expanded the number of theaters running the film when Academy Award nominations were announced. And as far as what happens after the envelopes are opened at Sunday’s Oscar ceremonies in Hollywood, there’s no guarantee, analysts say.

In other words, if you’re a film mogul and you’d like to see a little green-colored audience appreciation to go with your golden Oscar from your colleagues, you’re going to have make it happen.

“The thing is, Oscar bounces are not born, they’re made,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for media data tracker Rentrak Corp. US:RENT “It’s almost a nebulous thing. It’s not a real thing.”

Dergarabedian points out that of this year’s nine nominees for best picture, five saw a boost in business the weekend after Oscar nominations were announced on Jan. 16 but not enough to carry the day — and only because the studios reached out and put it in more theaters.

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For a movie like Warner Bros.’s US:TWX space drama “Gravity,” it might not be worth it. Sure, Warner’s weekend business nearly quadrupled from just over $419,000 the weekend before the nominations were announced, to $1.87 million the following Friday-Sunday period. But that required the studio to put the film in six times the number of theaters — going to 944 from 155. Studios share roughly half their receipts with theater owners.

Further, the $13.1 million that “Gravity” has made in the U.S. since getting 10 Oscar nominations -- tied for the most with Sony Corp’s SNE, +1.73% film about the 1970s Abscam corruption case, “American Hustle” -- may seem a paltry sum when you consider the movie has made nearly $270 million in U.S. receipts since its Oct. 4 release.

Still, Warner Bros. is considering putting “Gravity” into more theaters should the film make a major awards haul on Sunday, said Jeff Goldstein, executive vice president of domestic theatrical distribution.

“It’s really a marketplace demand question,” he said. “There’s no question, we’re going to try to squeeze every dime we can out of it.”

“Gravity” was put out in home video on Tuesday and the studio has been running numerous TV spots in recent weeks to promote not only its DVD debut but its accolades. Warner has been trying to get as many movie-watchers into 3-D and Imax IMAX, +0.60% theaters to see it because of its heavy special effects. That may come into play again if the studio decides to expand the number of theaters showing the movie after the Oscars.

“Gravity” and “12 Years A Slave” — a biography about a free African-American kidnapped and placed into slavery in the 1840s from 21st Century Fox Inc.’s FOX, -2.67% Fox Searchlight division — are considered the front runners for best picture, with “American Hustle” thought by some to be in the mix as well.

For “Slave,” the boost has been more meaningful but it also has required a broad expansion of the film. The weekend prior to the Oscar nominations, it was in 114 U.S. theaters and made just under $271,000. Two weeks later it was in 1,231 theaters and was making $2 million. This past weekend, the movie’s U.S. take was $522,497.

In all, “Slave” has made $10 million in the U.S. since Jan. 16, a more substantial impact of about 21% to its overall take of $49.2 million than with “Gravity.”

“It has affected a few films,” said Keith Simanton, managing editor of the Internet Movie Database.

But it’s not the wave that movies used to be able to ride after an awards season haul. Before the days of home video, films used to get a noticeable bounce in box-office receipts post-Oscars thanks to longer release cycles, Simanton says. Often, films would linger in theaters for as long as a year.

Such was the case as recently as 1998, when Paramount’s US:VIA US:VIAB mega-hit “Titanic,” released around Christmas 1997, floated atop the box-office heap 15 weeks in a row — and lingered in theaters into the following summer. That movie ended up making $658.7 million in the U.S. and $2.19 billion worldwide. In the middle of its run, it was nominated for 14 Oscars and won 11, including best picture.

But the next time a film won that many Oscars, 2003’s “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King,” its box-office business was up the weekend after before quickly slowing to a trickle.

“[The bounce] just doesn’t exist anymore,” Simanton said. He notes that some films now are on home video three months after their theatrical release.

One studio, however, has made a living off of finessing its release schedule with Oscar bait: the privately held Weinstein Co. But as Rentrak’s Dergarabedian says, studio chief Harvey Weinstein — who used to run the Miramax arthouse division for Walt Disney Co. DIS, -1.22% — stokes the fire for his films by constantly manipulating the number of theaters where his films are released; it’s not a naturally occurring phenomenon.

The studio did not respond to requests for interviews.

Best actress in a leading role nominee Meryl Streep arrives at the 86th Academy Awards nominees luncheon in Beverly Hills, California February 10, 2014. Reuters

Movies that have a chance at awards glory often aren’t released by Weinstein until the last minute in late December, in time to qualify for Oscars, and then only in a few locations. Then when the nominations come around, the studio might open the film wide.

Such was the case with this year’s “August: Osage County,” not a best-picture nominee but one that captured nods for lead actress Meryl Streep and supporting actress Julia Roberts. Weinstein kept the film in five theaters its first two weeks before opening it to 905 locations the week of the nominations and 2,051 the week after.

For one of his best-picture nominees, “Philomena,” Weinstein’s strategy is more curious. That film opened in late November and it played in less than 1,000 locations every weekend until a month after the nominations had been announced. Then on President’s Weekend, it expanded to 1,225 theaters as buzz has built for the movie and best actress nominee Judi Dench.

“It’s just trying to be an Oscar contender,” Dergarabedian said.

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