Jun 22nd, 2018

Jun 22nd, 2018

For every Queenslander who marvels at the ability of their Maroons to fight back from a 1-0 deficit to claim the State of Origin series there are just as many Blues fans who lament their state’s track record of blowing a lead. Here are the facts:

The Blues’ alarming statistic

Prior to 2018 New South Wales had won the first game of the series in 18 of 36 series played since 1982. They have gone on to claim an unassailable 2-0 lead nine times. But of the nine occasions that the Blues have lost Game 2, they have recovered to win the series only three times. That is the disturbing stat for Blues’ fans: After losing Game 2, New South Wales’ winning percentage in Game 3 deciders is a paltry 33 per cent.

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The disaster of 2017

Round 1 Queensland vs New South Wales State of Origin 2020: Round 1 TBC - Wednesday November 4th, 8:30 am Round 2 New South Wales vs Queensland State of Origin 2020: Round 2 TBC - Wednesday November 11th, 8:30 am Round 3 Queensland vs New South Wales State of Origin 2020: Round 3 TBC - Wednesday November 18th, 8:30 am Swipe to view more

That scenario is amplified for New South Wales because it is the one that played out 12 months ago. There was the resounding Game 1 victory over the Maroons at Suncorp Stadium, when prop Andrew Fifita was compared with Immortal Arthur Beetson, followed by a Game 2 defeat in Sydney that continues to cause sleepless nights for Blues fans. New South Wales led 16-6 at halftime and had one hand on the Origin shield before some poor decisions allowed Queensland back into the game.

Frustrated Immortal

Andrew Johns called it "the dumbest half of football New South Wales have played". The Nine commentator was scathing of the Blues’ failure to target a wounded Johnathan Thurston and apply any pressure to the Maroons’ defence. "They didn’t go to him once in the second half. I couldn’t believe what I was watching. You’ve got a player there who cannot pick his arm up off the ground and they didn’t target his side of the field or go at the defenders either side. They didn’t go there once – I don’t know what they were doing."

QLD Five Eighth, Cameron Munster

A cautious approach

New South Wales will approach Sunday night’s game with appropriate caution after last year’s events. Coach Brad Fittler and his assistants Greg Alexander and Danny Buderus have pushed the message that the Blues are yet to win anything despite the quality of their performance at the MCG a fortnight ago. The Maroons will be desperate to draw level and coach Kevin Walters has made important changes to his line-up that could make a difference. Billy Slater’s return should greatly improve defensive communication and rookie Kalyn Ponga can offer the x-factor that will ensure the Blues remain nervous while ever the Maroons are in touch.

Blues’ affinity with ANZ

The Blues have a proud record at ANZ Stadium where they have won 16 of 26 games since 1999 but in recent years their dominance has been eroded by four Queensland wins from the past six encounters. New South Wales have won three of the past four Game 2 clashes in Sydney and when playing in Sydney with a 1-0 lead, they have gone on to clinch the series six times in eight attempts.

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Surface tensions

If the game is tight and opportunities are limited by a damp ANZ Stadium surface (typical for this time of year) Queensland five-eighth Cameron Munster could be highly influential. A noted ‘scrapper’, Munster will fight for every advantage and will need to be closely watched. The kicking of halves James Maloney and Nathan Cleary will have to be pinpoint if they are to ‘manage’ victory for the Blues.

Opportunities restricted for pace men

The forecast is for a clear night but if the dew descends as it so often does at Origin time in Sydney then the attacking opportunities for speedsters Josh Addo-Carr, James Roberts, Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai may be restricted. Typically, players who venture outside the 10-metre ‘tram tracks’ are flirting with danger. These conditions could make for a much tighter contest than the open game seen in Melbourne in Game 1. The Blues may still hold the aces in such a contest, with Damien Cook’s ability to evade back-pedalling defenders a key point of difference for the home team.

(AAP)

The verdict

It’s all or nothing for the Maroons this Sunday night and as they have proven repeatedly, that makes them the most dangerous of propositions. New South Wales may hold a 1-0 lead but as history shows, if they don’t take their chances in Game 2, they can just about kiss goodbye to a series victory. Fittler is confident he has selected the right men for the job, players who will stand up when their character is invariably put to the test. This may be their time. New South Wales by 2.