Thursday was one of those days at Conservative Campaign Headquarters.



It had been slated as “immigration day” in the Tories’ communications grid, with home secretary Priti Patel sent out to hammer Labour’s policy on free movement — something Conservative strategists view as one of their most important attack lines.

But statistics released at 9:30am revealing that NHS A&E waiting times in England had reached their worst level on record demolished any hope the Tories had of immigration setting the agenda.

The A&E story led news bulletins every hour throughout the day, before an eye-catching Labour policy promising free broadband for all secured blanket coverage after it was announced at 10pm.

The concern of senior Conservatives that evening was not so much that they had lost the day — there was not much they could do to spin the dire hospital figures. It was that they knew the A&E numbers were coming, yet had still decided to blow their immigration attack on a day that was inevitably going to be focussed on something else.

Two weeks into the election campaign, Boris Johnson’s allies remain confident that they are on track to secure a small majority and are bullish about what they see as promising signs in terms of their ground game in key marginals.

But among the two dozen or so Tory candidates who spoke to BuzzFeed News over the last few days, there are grumblings about the so-called “air war” — with rising fears that unless the central messaging and media narrative of the Conservative campaign improve then things could easily slip into hung Parliament territory.

On the ground, the Tories are positive. They believe Nigel Farage’s decision to stand down Brexit Party candidates in Conservative-held seats is having a significant impact, contrary to the view among pollsters and pundits that it would have little effect.

Many in Westminster had thought the Tories would still suffer from Farage still running candidates in Leave-voting Labour marginals in the north of England, the so-called “red wall” that is seen as fundamental to Johnson’s chances of winning a majority.

Yet Tory candidates in places like Bishop Auckland, where Dehenna Davison is attempting to overturn Helen Goodman’s Labour majority of 502, are reporting that Brexit Party support has almost disappeared in the last few days. Even North West Durham, where Labour rising star Laura Pidcock is defending a 8,700 majority against ex-Tory aide Richard Holden, is seen as in play.

Despite the Brexit Party still running in these areas, it is no longer being viewed as such a worthwhile vote thanks to Farage’s decision to stand down candidates elsewhere and endorse Johnson’s Brexit plan, the Tories claim.

The overall polls remain healthy for the Conservatives, with Panelbase giving them a 13-point lead on Friday. But the flat start to the Tory campaign, including a series of unforced errors and perceived strategic mistakes, has caused some candidates to fear that should the polls suddenly tighten then momentum could quickly turn against them, as happened to Theresa May in 2017.