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Three makes a trend. Recent polls by Forum Research, Ipsos and Abacus Data point to a measurable slump in the Trudeau government’s public support as 2016 draws to a close. It’s not a five-alarm fire for the Liberals, by any means. Nor is it something they will feel inclined to ignore.

The question MPs, ministers and their aides will ask themselves this holiday will be, what to do? The toughest parts of their agenda — pipelines, reform to improve aboriginal living standards, limits to growth in health spending, to name three — cannot be talked away or avoided. Nor can the sweeping geopolitical change underway. For the foreseeable future, at least until U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s unpredictability morphs into a discernible pattern, the cross-border relationship will be an all-consuming focus of this PMO.

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Nor can the Trudeau Liberals change the reality of politics in seat-rich Ontario, where the Kathleen Wynne Liberal government is testing new lows in public approval heading into a pre-election year. It is inevitable that Wynne’s egregious failures, especially on the energy file, will cling to the feds somewhat as the Ontario contest heats up. These two parties are close. They share ground teams. Trudeau can create distance by not being seen with Wynne. But that has its limits.