Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the Democratic National Committee chairwoman, is strongly considering a bid for U.S. Senate, calculating that having Hillary Clinton at the top of the 2016 ticket would help lift her candidacy in a year-of-the-woman campaign.

Driving Wasserman Schultz’s interest: the increasing likelihood that Sen. Marco Rubio will run for the White House and that he ultimately won’t seek reelection in 2016, Democratic insiders familiar with her thinking say. Her office wouldn’t discuss her interest in the Senate.


“Of course she’s considering it: Open Senate seats are pretty rare,” said Andrew Weinstein, a longtime supporter of the Weston congresswoman and a 2012 member of President Barack Obama’s national finance team.

“If you’re a nationally known candidate with a strong fundraising record and a good relationship with your constituents and supporters, you would definitely look at it,” Weinstein added.

Like a number of Democratic insiders — four of whom spoke on condition of anonymity in confirming her Senate interest — Weinstein stressed he wasn’t favoring any potential candidate and didn’t want to appear to slight Rep. Patrick Murphy, who represents Florida’s 18th Congressional District and is considered the most likely Democrat to seek a Senate seat in 2016.

“He is very seriously considering the Senate race — whether Rubio runs or not,” said Eric Johnson, Murphy’s chief of staff and top political adviser.

Also expressing some interest behind the scenes: former Gov. Charlie Crist, who has lost his past two elections — governor in 2012 and Senate in 2010, the latter against Rubio. Crist, who couldn’t be reached, would be far less likely to run for the Senate again if he had to run against an incumbent Rubio.

The same is likely true of Wasserman Schultz, who’s in a safe seat.

Murphy sits in a far more competitive district, though he defeated his Republican opponent handily in 2014.

“It’s not a question of if he loses his seat, but when,” one Democratic consultant said of Murphy. “Make no mistake: He has won two hard races. He knows how to win. He can raise big money. That matters. So it makes sense he’ll run for Senate. And the [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee] loves the guy.”

Wasserman Schultz has a fraught relationship with some Washington Democrats.

For years, anonymous Democrats in Congress, the DNC and Obama’s election machine have trashed the sometimes-acerbic congresswoman in publications like POLITICO and BuzzFeed.

“Nancy Pelosi views Debbie as a threat,” said one Democratic politician familiar with the dynamics in the U.S. House. “So perhaps they’ll all pitch in together to get her out of the DNC and out of the House and into the Senate where no one can really do anything.”

As DNC chair, Wasserman Schultz has major fundraising responsibilities nationwide. Democrats say she can’t realistically be a statewide Florida candidate — especially in a potentially contested primary — and fully serve the party at the same time. One Democrat said she could make the decision to leave the DNC no later than April.

Unlike many in Obama’s orbit, Wasserman Schultz has the aura of a Clinton-machine Democrat. She was Hillary Clinton’s co-chair for her 2008 race. Some Democrats have accused her of being disloyal to Clinton toward the end of the contest against Obama, but others say the relationship between the two women is strong.

Wasserman Schultz wouldn’t comment on the chatter. “My only focus right now is serving the people of Florida’s 23rd District in Congress and electing the 45th President of the United States,” she said in a statement.

Florida has had only one female U.S. senator, Republican Paula Hawkins, who served from 1981-87.

Some Democrats are salivating at the prospect of a history-making, two-woman top-of-the-ticket race in Florida. They also hope a female Senate candidate would attract unmarried female voters, who tend to vote Democrat but disproportionately avoid voting in Florida midterms along with African-Americans and Hispanics.

Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 3.6 percentage points in Florida, yet the GOP controls the four statewide elected offices based in Tallahassee, one U.S. Senate seat, a supermajority in the state House and a majority in the state Senate — and that’s despite an anti-gerrymandering constitutional amendment voters approved in 2010.

Presidential election years are much kinder to Florida Democrats: Obama won the state twice, and Sen. Bill Nelson was easily reelected in 2012.

Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz | M. Scott Mahaskey

Wasserman Schultz’s supporters first whispered about her as a possible Senate pick during the 2012 cycle. Many wanted Nelson to run for governor and, if he won, to pick Wasserman Schultz as his replacement (an appointment, however, that could have been disputed under Florida law).

The buzz died down as Crist’s candidacy surged, but it’s back now that Democrats believe Rubio is more serious about not seeking reelection if he pursues a White House run. Under state law, Rubio would have to choose which office to pursue.

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Rubio hasn’t completely pledged to not seek reelection if he runs for president. But he has almost shut the door on the possibility.

“If I’m running for president, I’m running for president,” Rubio told POLITICO. “That wouldn’t be my strategy or my thought or my plan. My plan would be to run for president to win.”

Rubio said he has no favored potential successor: “I think we have a deep bench of quality candidates. I’m sure a good one will be our nominee and will win it. I haven’t made that decision. But I anticipate when you are running for president, you have your hands full.”

A number of Republicans want more assurances before they start up plans to run. Among the possible GOP candidates: state CFO Jeff Atwater, former House Speaker Will Weatherford, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera and U.S. Reps. Ron DeSantis and Vern Buchanan.

As for the Democrats, aside from Wasserman Schultz, Murphy and Crist, Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine, independently wealthy and a friend of the Clintons, hasn’t tamped down speculation about his potential interest. Nor has U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch of Boca Raton.

Most top Florida Democrats say that Wasserman Schultz would be tough to beat because of her high name recognition and fundraising prowess. Top-tier Florida campaigns cost at least $10 million. Gov. Rick Scott spent the most, about $115 million in 2014, to defeat Crist by just 1.08 percentage points.

Wasserman Schultz’s post at the DNC has both pluses and minuses for a potential Senate candidacy. While she has greatly expanded her fundraising contact list and media profile, she also could be perceived as too much of a liberal partisan in conservative and moderate quarters of Florida.

“I hear from many people she is interested. I think her problem will be the notion of statewide,” Orlando trial lawyer John Morgan, an Obama donor, said by email. “She is very safe and popular inside her district but coming out from there will be a problem in my opinion. As chair of the DNC you are the attack dog for the party. It’s your job. You become polarizing.”

Morgan employs Crist in his law firm and said the Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat’s pollster, John Anzalone, has indicated that Crist might seek the Senate seat. Anzalone also polled for a medical-marijuana initiative Morgan underwrote in 2014, when it fell about 3 percentage points shy of the needed 60 percent voter-approval threshold for a state constitutional amendment.

Morgan and Wasserman Schultz had a public falling out over medical marijuana when he blasted her as an “irrelevant … irritant” once she echoed conservative criticisms of the initiative.

Medical marijuana isn’t the only surprisingly conservative position for the otherwise liberal congresswoman. For years, Wasserman Schultz has voted with most Republicans and against most Democrats in favor of keeping a hard line against Cuba’s Castro dictatorship. After Obama announced his plan to normalize relations, Wasserman Schultz’s statement was markedly delayed and tepid.

U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson spoke highly of Wasserman Schultz — even though he is eyeing a 2016 Senate bid as well.

“I would not run against Debbie Wasserman Schultz out of respect and admiration for her,” Grayson said in an interview. “She would be almost impossible to beat in a Democratic primary anyway.”

Grayson said he believed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, should he go ahead with a presidential bid in 2016, would have “coattails” for a Republican candidate in Florida, making it all the better to have a ticket led by Wasserman Schultz and Hillary Clinton, who bests Bush by inside-the-error-margin amounts in early Florida polls.

Asked if Wasserman Schultz were seriously considering a run, Grayson said “yes.” When asked whether the two had spoken about the matter, Grayson said he wouldn’t disclose private conversations.

The prospect of a Wasserman Schultz-Murphy primary for Senate could pit the two camps of the Florida Democratic Party against each other: Those who argue for a more centrist approach side with Murphy, and those who favor a candidacy that doesn’t shy away from liberalism are more in Wasserman Schultz’s camp.

The potentially open Senate seat puts Florida Democrats like Steve Schale in a tough spot. Schale, a fan of both Murphy and Wasserman Schultz, served as an adviser to Crist and newly elected U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, who intends to run for reelection to her 2nd District seat.

Schale said some have dismissed the idea of Wasserman Schultz running, but they might be surprised.

“She’s considering [the] Senate far more seriously than many people are giving her credit for,” Schale said.

POLITICO staff writer Manu Raju contributed to this report.

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