Biweekly Market Report (2020/02/03 ~ 2020/02/16)

BTC/USD (BitMEX)

9,080 (02/04) → 9,630 (02/05) → 10,132 (02/09) → 10,363 (02/13) → 9,838 (02/17) is a summary of the price movements of Bitcoin futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.

All price data were collected on 02/17 12:00

There are signs of a bull market as we enter February. Prices are on the rise. Compared with unhealthy prices in the second half of 2019, the crypto market in 2020 Q1 is showing significant improvements, most likely attributed to expectations for halving in 2020 Q2. The Bitcoin price pulled back slightly after the upward channel on 2/12. At present, the price level falls within the oscillating range of 9750–9900. If the price does not fall below the lower edge of the rising channel, investors need not worry too much.

Figure 1: BTC/USD (BitMEX) Recent trends (hourly line). Source: AIcoin.

ETH/USD (BitMEX)

188.35 (02/04) → 204.40 (02/05) → 228.95 (02/09) → 286.50 (02/14) → 253.75 (02/17) is a summary of the price movements of Bitcoin futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.

All price data were collected on 02/17 12:00

The price of ETH has jumped in the past two weeks, from 188 (02/04) to 286.5 (02/14), an increase of more than 50%, back to the level in July last year. While the trend seems promising, there has been a significant correction in the past two days. As the overheated market is being adjusted, the overall trend of ETH in 2020 is close to the upper edge of the Bollinger Channel, indicating strong signals.

Figure 2: ETH/USD (BitMEX) Recent trends (hourly line). Source: AIcoin.

Binance mainstream crypto trend analysis

Prices of all currencies have climbed upward in the past two weeks. Among them, the big 3 were ETH, BNB, and XRP. ETH in particular has increased by 39.4% in the past two weeks. Such increases are very rare during this period. In Figure 3, one can see that the mainstream currencies have been rising continuously in the past two weeks before encountering a large price reversal on 2/16. Most currencies have fallen by about 10%, but on 2/16, ETH rose by 50%. It is particularly worth noting that the fluctuation of BTC during these two weeks was much smaller than that of other currencies. This situation may indicate that the BTC market has matured, and it may be harder to see the previous big ups and downs.

The cumulative rate of return (in USDT) for these cryptocurrencies in the last two weeks is as follows:

Table 1: Cumulative rate of return for each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Figure 3: Cumulative rate of return for each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Market Outlook

At present, this wave of rally has reached a new high, and it has recently rebounded sharply and started to consolidate. Usually, the consolidation after a wave of rally will continue to digest the market for a period of time, causing profit margins to drop. It is currently recommended to reduce the utilization rate of funds, and after this period of consolidation, raise funds and track the general trend moving forward.

Bincentive’s Selected Strategies

A recently outstanding strategy is “Volatility Correlation Trend”. This strategy deals with ETH spot on Binance and has performed really well especially due to the recent ETH surge. Its high profits in the past two months have reached about 15%. This strategy was able to filter out many unsuitable transactions during the consolidation and bear market two months ago. Its lower MDD has been no easy feat.

Understanding strategy subscriptions

Remember to diversify when subscribing to strategies. Because the trends between strategies are different, diversification can play a role in spreading risks. When the fluctuation of a certain trend is not great, you can profit from other strategies with high volatility. For instance, Ethereum based strategies outperforms Bitcoin based ones given recent trends.