As I sat in the bleachers of Yankee Stadium Monday night, watching a forgettable game between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees made special only by the likelihood of it being my final time seeing Derek Jeter play in-person, I got to wondering about how many Hall of Famers would be on the field that night. Jeter, obviously. They don’t give full-blown going-away tours across Major League Baseball for just anybody. Ichiro Suzuki will likely end up enshrined as well. After those two, I was able to quickly discard the potential Hall of Fame candidacy of just about everyone else on the field. Everyone except Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran.

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In their mid- to late-thirties, Beltre and Beltran have been around long enough to make them comparable to players already in Cooperstown. But so have LaTroy Hawkins and Raul Ibanez, and no one’s thinking about whether they’ll be handed a plaque. The difference is that over the past 17 years, Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran have been quietly augmenting their resumés to the point that both players now stand before us as borderline Hall of Famers.

So, how likely is it these fringe candidates end up in Cooperstown?

Adrian Beltre

Adrian Beltre’s career is one of the most unusual of all players considered for Hall of Fame induction. In 2003, a 24-year-old Beltre hit what had been a career-high 23 home runs, with a .240/.290/.424 slash line for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The next year he led the league with 48 home runs, drove in 121 runs and upped his slash line to a crisp .334/.388/.629 with 9.5 wins above replacement, giving him a second-place finish in the National League MVP race behind only Barry Bonds, who was busy claiming his fourth MVP in a row and the seventh of his career. Beltre had flashed potential leading up to that 2004 season, but nobody could have envisioned that type of season following his 2003.

But what makes Beltre’s career so odd is his first trip through free agency. Blessed with a huge breakout season as a 25-year-old during a contract year, and with “every team on the West Coast team except Oakland” on his list of possible destinations according to agent Scott Boras, Beltre chose to spend his prime in the offensive wasteland of Safeco Field with the 99-loss Seattle Mariners. The Mariners did not rebound after the acquisition of Beltre; they went 69-93 the following season and lost 101 games in 2008. They finished above .500 twice and never reached the postseason in Beltre’s five years in the pacific northwest.

With little support from his teammates and no additional help from the dimensions of the stadium, Beltre scuffled at the plate. With Seattle, he hit 103 home runs, drove in 396 RBI, posted a .266/.317/.442 slash line and a 101 OPS+, one above the league average of 100. All those numbers were down from his career-opening tenure with the Dodgers. Though he remained excellent on defense (helping him manage 21.3 WAR), with his disappointingly average offensive production during his age 26 through 30 seasons, Beltre had essentially squandered his prime.

But a funny thing happened when Beltre’s stay in Seattle mercifully ended. His numbers picked back up. Playing on a one-year, $9 million contract with the Boston Red Sox in order to prove he was still a valuable player, Beltre hit a league-leading 49 doubles while hitting 28 homers, driving in 102 RBI, producing a .321/.365/.553 slash line and creating 7.8 WAR. Fenway Park served Beltre very well, and he landed a five-year, $80 million deal with the Texas Rangers that offseason.

Beltre has been similarly dominant thus far in Texas. In his three and a half seasons, he has 112 home runs, 352 RBI, 317 runs, a .314/.358/.538 slash line, a 137 OPS+, and 22.1 WAR. He has appeared in the top 20 of the American League MVP voting four times and within the top 10 three times, after appearing on the ballot just once in his entire career. Now 35, he has not slowed down much during his time with the Rangers. This year, he is batting .326 with a 143 OPS+, 14 home runs and 53 RBI, and is coming off his fourth career All-Star game selection. His defense remains top notch.

With his resurgence in Boston and Texas, along with his performance in Los Angeles, Adrian Beltre has now accumulated enough impressive statistics to not only erase the memory of his underwhelming stay in Seattle, but to generate serious debate over his Hall of Fame candidacy. As it stands today, Beltre has amassed 74.5 career WAR. Third base is the least represented of all positions in Cooperstown, with just 13 members enshrined. The average WAR for these players is 67.4, and the average seven-year peak WAR is 42.7, while Beltre’s is 46.8. Baseball Reference’s JAWS system ranks him eighth-best among the Hall of Fame third-sackers.

But a potential problem here is that the Veterans Committee over the years has elected third baseman that bring down the average of those metrics. To more accurately measure Beltre’s Cooperstown candidacy, I prefer to limit comparisons to the “bona fide” Hall of Fame third basemen, the players elected when they were on the ballot; this group includes Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Brooks Robinson, Paul Molitor, and because he will eventually be enshrined, Chipper Jones. I’ve also excluded HOF-elect Pie Traynor, who played from 1920 to 1937 and generated 36.2 WAR. Very different era, very different numbers. Sorry Pie.

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The average WAR for this “bona fide” group is 88.73. Still very productive at 35, Beltre has time to create the roughly 14 wins above replacement needed to equal that number. This group produced an average of 352.14 home runs; Beltre has 390, fourth-best of these eight. His 1360 RBI are fifth-best, and he is just 60 behind the group average and less than 100 behind Eddie Mathews. He is one of five to steal over 100 bases, and his batting average is also fifth-best.

Accolades are important as well. Mike Schmidt, with three MVP awards and 10 Gold Gloves, is the cream of the crop. Brooks Robinson is the most defense-oriented of the group; along with his MVP award, he has 16 Gold Gloves, the most at the position and the second-most overall in major league history. Chipper Jones has an MVP, George Brett has an MVP and a Gold Glove, and Wade Boggs has two Gold Gloves. Eddie Mathews and Paul Molitor have neither of these awards.

Adrian Beltre has four Gold Gloves. He has also been around during an era of expanded awards opportunities, and has taken advantage by claiming three silver sluggers, four Fielding Bible awards (voted on by baseball experts, not coaches, and given to one player per position, not two) as well as two Platinum Gloves (given to the best fielder in each league). The four Fielding Bible awards are tied for third-most in the award’s history, and the two Platinum Gloves give him a share for most in the brief history of that award. To support these awards with statistics, consider that Beltre is 32nd all-time in Defensive WAR, higher than any one on this list (the next closest, Schmidt, is nearly five wins behind). His Total Zone Runs as a third baseman are ninth-highest all-time, and third-most in this group, behind only the wizard Brooks Robinson and Schmidt.

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Beltre has offered a combination of power, overall offensive production and defensive brilliance that few in the history of the position can compete with. Yet he has appeared in just four All-Star games. If not for those average years in Seattle, Beltre might already have a spot reserved for him in the Hall; instead, he may have to cobble together a few more good seasons to completely assure his place. Baseball Reference determines Cubs third baseman Ron Santo to be the player most similar to Beltre, by careers had through ages 21-29 and 31-34 and by overall career. Santo was elected in by the Veterans Committee, never generating more than 43.1 percent of votes by the BBWAA. The uncertainty of his induction is present, but with a few more seasons to supplement his resumé, Beltre has a good chance of overcoming his decision to waste his prime with the Mariners and of being elected to Cooperstown.

Carlos Beltran

Whereas Beltre has experienced highs and lows throughout his career, Carlos Beltran has instead been very consistent. Beltran has rode that consistency to the edge of the cutoff line separating the Hall of Famers from the also-rans.

Of the 18 Hall of Fame center fielders, the average WAR is 70.4. Beltran currently stands at 67.1. The JAWS system ranks him as ninth-best among those HOF center fielders. But again, I prefer to limit the discussion to the “bona fide” guys, not the Veterans Committee selections. This group will include Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Duke Snider, Andre Dawson, Kirby Puckett, and like Chipper Jones in the Beltre discussion, Ken Griffey Jr., who is waiting for his first turn on the ballot to be enshrined.

As you can see, this group is a tough one to crack. The average WAR here is 99.37, inflated by Mays’ 156.2, Cobb’s 151 and Speaker’s 133.7. Though his 67.1 mark looks very weak when compared to most of these players, Beltran manages to rank ahead of Snider, Dawson and Puckett. The average home run total here is 385.89; Beltran’s is 368, sixth-best of 10. Beltran is eighth-best in RBI and ninth-best in OPS+ and batting average.

But like Beltre, Carlos Beltran makes his name by offering a deeper set of tools than most of his peers. Beltran’s power and average alone would not get him into the Hall of Fame; however, his speed and defense make him a compelling case. Beltran has stolen 310 bases in his career; only four players in this group have more, and Beltran can likely stumble into five more swipes to pass Andre Dawson. Those 310 stolen bases make him just the eighth player to join the prestigious 300 homer/300 steal club, and the first switch-hitter to do so. His Power-Speed number, developed by Bill James, ranks 13th all-time, and third among this group. He has successfully stolen on 86.59 percent of his attempts, the sixth-best mark of all time and the best among this group. To put some more perspective on Beltran’s stealing success rate, the list is dominated at the top by younger players, including Mike Trout, Alexi Casilla, Craig Gentry and Jarrod Dyson, players with less than 10 years of experience. Beltran has maintained his impeccable mark for 17 seasons. As for his defense, Beltran has won three Gold Gloves from 2006 to 2008, including two Fielding Bible awards. His Total Zone Runs as a center fielder mark is 15th-best all-time, and tied for second-highest in this group.

Beltran’s comparatively empty trophy case is a point of concern though. Willie Mays, like Schmidt in the prior argument, is the premier player, with two MVP awards and 12 Gold Gloves, and 300/300 club membership (make that 600/300 membership). Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker both have MVP awards, but Gold Gloves had not been invented in their time. Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio have three MVPs each, with Mantle also sporting one Gold Glove. Griffey has an MVP and 10 Gold Gloves, while Dawson has an MVP and eight Gold Glove awards. Kirby Puckett doubles Beltran’s Gold Glove total with six. Duke Snider is the only player in this group with a more barren individual trophy case, with no MVPs or Gold Gloves.

Similarity scores by age make Beltran most comparable to Andre Dawson from ages 26-30, 32, and 34-35, as well as through age 36. Overall similarity scores closely relate Beltran to Duke Snider. The good news for Beltran is that both men were elected to the Hall of Fame. The bad news is that it took them nine and 11 years to do so, respectively. Unless Beltran picks up his game significantly over the remainder of his contract with the Yankees, which takes him through his age 39 season, he could be in a for a lengthy wait on the ballot.

But a deciding factor could be Beltran’s postseason accomplishments. Postseason records are traditionally considered extra-credit: a lack of success or appearances usually don’t hinder a player’s chances of reaching Cooperstown, but fruitful playoff performances can increase a player’s odds (it’s the main reason it took so long to write Jack Morris off the ballot). Beltran is exactly the kind of player that will have his Hall chances benefit greatly from his postseason dominance.

Known as “Señor Octubre,” in 51 postseason games, Beltran has scored 45 runs, registered 60 hits, 13 doubles, 16 home runs, 40 RBI, 11 stolen bases, a .333 average, .445 on-base percentage, .683 slugging percentage, and 1.128 OPS. He is ninth all-time in homers and among players with at least 100 plate appearances, third in OPS . Though he has been great in every turn through the playoffs, his 2004 was downright magical. The 21 runs he scored and eight home runs he hit are both the number one marks for an individual postseason. His 47 total bases and six doubles are both tied for second. And those numbers were generated in two rounds: almost all of his competitors played in the World Series, while Beltran’s Houston Astros lost in the NLCS. Even without a ring, that’s a lot of extra credit for Beltran.

Beltran, now 37, does not have as much left in the tank as Beltre; his age has been showing considerably this season as he has battled injuries and hit for a low average. His days of stealing bases are behind him, but playing in Yankee Stadium, he still has a chance to hit some long balls and increase his Hall odds that way. But at the moment, he is a fringe candidate for Cooperstown, one often overlooked during his career, to be left to the mercy of sportswriters.

Bottom Line

Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran at this juncture in time are very similar. They both broke into the majors in 1998 and have proven to be great batsmen, superb fielders and above all else, exceptional all-around players. Though their careers progressed differently, they’re separated by just two RBI, .003 average, .013 slugging percentage, six OPS+, 22 home runs, and 7.3 WAR. Even their names are practically the same. Playing at exclusive positions in terms of Hall of Fame representation, they find themselves today on the border of enshrinement in Cooperstown. More work could be done by both players, and they certainly won’t be elected on their first ballots, but Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran, long hidden in the shadows cast by Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols and the game’s other superstars, now find themselves tantalizingly close to having the spotlight shone on their great careers.

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