Turkey considers this encirclement policy hostile. To the north, Moscow’s military annexed Crimea in 2014. And Russia stepped up its intervention in Syria, which sits on Turkey’s southern border.

The second prong of Russia’s destabilization strategy is periodically re-inflaming the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict. Russia has continued to sell arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, despite escalating hostilities. Even though Azerbaijan’s military capabilities remain vastly superior to Armenia’s, expanded Russian military support for Armenia could encourage Yerevan to inflame the Karabagh conflict. In December 2015, the Armenian defense minister claimed that Azerbaijan was provoking violence and undermining the cease-fire. This claim could become a pretext for more Armenian military involvement in Karabagh, and result in worsening violence in the autonomous region.

Here’s why this matters. Azerbaijan has close cultural ties and is a vital regional ally for Turkey. Turkey relies on access to Azerbaijan’s extensive energy resources on the Caspian Sea. Turkey and Armenia remain chilly because Ankara refuses to acknowledge — much less apologize for — the 1915 Armenian genocide. So Turkey has backed up Azerbaijan’s claims to Nagorno-Karabagh, to ensure its main regional ally remains stable and in control of its territory. By increasing military support for Armenia, Russia undercuts Turkey’s Caucasus strategy, and strengthens its own regional power.

Back a Shared Ally in Syria

Russia’s pro-Assad, anti-Islamic State campaign in Syria is another reason Russia decided to boost military aid to Armenia. Russia, Armenia and Baathist Syria are allied against Turkey. Syria-Turkey relations broke down in 2011 when Turkey supported anti-Assad rebel movements.

Shortly after the Soviet Union collapsed, Armenia and Baathist Syria forged a close diplomatic relationship, one that Yerevan regards as vital to securing the rights of 120,000 Armenians living within Syria’s borders. It has been a firm partnership, despite fierce international condemnation of President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian civil war atrocities. Like Russia, Armenia considers Assad the legitimate leader of all of Syria.

Armenia’s strong ties with Baathist Syria go back a full century. In May 2015, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian visited Syria, praising the Syrian people for helping Armenians during the last phase of the Turkish genocide of the last century. Nalbandian also hailed Assad’s tolerance of the Armenian minority and expressed concern that a regime change in Syria could precipitate another genocide against the Armenian diaspora. Assad responded to these diplomatic overtures by officially recognizing the Armenian genocide in a November interview with Agence France-Presse.