Link: 11/1 Status Update

A look at the trading status of the Chainlink token

The news and the price

Last night, Sergey finally published the much expected October update. The market found the news underwhelming and a crash ensued. Yesterday, Chainlink closed at $0.1939 and now it’s exactly at $0.1597 on high volume. The $0.20 support line is gone and $0.15 is the next one. It’s the price at which Chainlink opened when it first traded. After that, the ICO price becomes the next line of support.

So, what’s in the news that triggered the crash? Here’s the complete text as published on Slack:

So, they’re hiring developers. They’re helping the community set up nodes (the first ones were set up last week, I think) and they’ll be having plenty of meetings at Devcon 3.

There’s more that wasn’t mentioned in the announcement, and I think it’s important news: They hired a technical community manager who’s helping people set up nodes as we speak. And they’re hiring marketers to promote the project among potential clients. To me, this is very positive news and I can’t even begin to imagine why it wasn’t included in the announcement, but I just confirmed it with Rory. If you think you’re a good fit for any of the developer or marketing positions, send your resume to support@smartcontract.com.

Oh, and he mentions working to put ChainLink in a position to ‘succeed over the long-term’. In other words, don’t expect any hype. Things will happen when they happen. And don’t expect an announcement from Sergey’s Devcon 3 talk. It’s a technical event.

Devcon 3 Livestream

So, what to do?

The token’s 17% down in the last day alone, Chainlink is the 79th coin in market cap and the 7th worst performing one in the top 100. On top of that, the Bitcoin bull run is killing alts. We’re still 2 weeks away from the fork and alts are expected to struggle under the stormy weather until then. Most expect a Bitcoin correction and an alts bull run after SegWit2x. Personally, I think the Bitcoin surge is due to the CME launching Bitcoin futures more than anything, and to increased Bitcoin acceptance as an investment. If I’m right, the odds of a post-SegWit2x correction are lower than most think.

At the moment, ChainLink holders have four options:

Hold long term. The fundamentals are still good and the team is working on building the company. If they do their job, good news are a certainty, but they’ll take months, not weeks. Timing the market can be a risky thing, so just stay in and repeat that Warren Buffet quote about money flowing from the impatient to the patient. Say it over and over during the next couple weeks, like a mantra. Sell ChainLink for Bitcoin and move back as soon as the fork happens. If Bitcoin keeps on going up and Chainlink stays low or even goes below ICO, you might get a lot more bang for your buck in just 2 weeks. Sell for Bitcoin and come back when the trend changes. I recommend waiting for the price to raise above $0.20 before going in, $0.27 if you want to be cautious. Sell and move on. ChainLink was a bad investment, time to seek better ones. Maybe Groestlcoin, which mooned 4x this week. Or one of the new below-ICO coins, like Request Network, Blackmoon or Cindicator. Watch for mooning signs as the fork gets closer. Just remember to sell faster next time and hold on to your profits. Set an trailing stop loss to lock in profits as the trend goes the right way and get out as soon as a correction hits it. No excuses.

Whales, Wallets and Exchanges

If you go to the Slack or Telegram channels today, you’ll probably hear that the whales are dropping Link. Not the case. A whale moved 999K Link to another wallet and Binance lost another 1.5M tokens. That’s all. Of course, some people could be moving their tokens to Binance to sell them fast, hence the high volume, but they’re not in the top 50.

The top 50 hold 74.06% of the tokens. The top 100 hold 77.22%. Pretty much no changes in the percentage held by the top 250 and top 500 either. Most action is happening with tokens that were in Binance already. And yes, Binance retains over 90% of the volume.

There are 12,692 wallets with Link now. It’s the highest number ever, even if growth is just a third of what it used to be. ChainLink is going to remain dormant until the team shares actual news.

That’s all. I’ll write the next report on Sunday.

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