More testing, more diagnoses

On April 20, the province released new computer modelling on where Ontario is heading amid the pandemic. The new numbers indicated that while community spread of the coronavirus is hitting its peak, it is a different story for communal living spaces, like long-term care homes, where numbers continue to grow.

Steini Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, told the Toronto Star that because mortality rates are higher in places like nursing homes, where residents are older and more vulnerable, it is difficult to predict the number of deaths from the virus.

As of April 20, 634 people in Ontario have died due to COVID-19.

Asked whether this update means more institutions could see blanket testing for the virus, Mercer said Public Health is doing what it can “to ensure we protect our vulnerable populations.”

“With the new testing parameters, one case in either a retirement home or long-term care home constitutes an outbreak,” she said, adding this allows Public Health to test more aggressively to ensure there aren’t people who are carrying the virus, but are showing no symptoms.

“That’s one of the things that we didn’t know two months ago. We didn’t know what percentage of people could get COVID-19, maybe have minimal to no symptoms. And as we know more about the virus, we’re learning more than what we had expected were carrying it and are asymptomatic.”

Last week, Public Health announced on Twitter it would be broadening the criteria for who could get tested for the virus. Now, instead of needing a referral from a doctor, anyone showing one of a number of symptoms — including a new fever, cough or lost sense of smell and/or taste — can go straight to the assessment centre to be tested.

(continued) at least two of the following symptoms: • chills • muscle aches • fatigue • headache • sore throat • nasal congestion • lost sense of smell or taste • digestive issues (nausea/vomiting, diarrhea, stomach pain) or • for young children and infants: sluggishness — WDG Public Health (@WDGPublicHealth) April 16, 2020

(continued) or lack of appetite. Locations and hours of the assessment centres in WDG are: • GUELPH - Victoria Road Recreation Centre - 151 Victoria Rd N. Open 8 a.m. – 8 p.m. daily. • ORANGEVILLE - 140 Rolling Hills Drive via Highway 10 — WDG Public Health (@WDGPublicHealth) April 16, 2020

Mercer said that with more people getting tested, this means the number of local diagnoses is going to go up.

“If we test widely and that number doesn’t go up, that would be evidence that we’re actually coming out the other side of this pandemic,” she added.

As for how people can see the light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel, Mercer said there are more indicators than diagnoses to keep an eye on.

“One of them is to see a decrease in institutional outbreaks. That, to me, will be the most important marker,” she said.

“I think the other way we’ll know is by percentage of tests testing positive. So if you test 20 people and five test positive, that’s very different if you test 100 people and five test positive.”

— with files from the Toronto Star