This plan, in other words, is being driven for entirely cynical reasons. Trump and congressional Republicans are not always aligned, but the stealthy and swift push to enact this legislation ticks off necessary boxes for both camps. Trump is desperate to pass something—despite claiming that he has done more than any other “ten-month president,” he needs a “signature achievement.” Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, are facing a revolt from donors and questions from a base that doesn’t understand why the GOP’s unified control of government has produced next to nothing in terms of legislation. Unsurprisingly, this is not a recipe for good lawmaking.



Every possible justification for this bill is in question. While Republicans say the plan’s lower rates will boost overall economic growth, Trump’s own Treasury Department has reneged on its promise to produce studies that back up that claim. While Republicans say everyone will get a tax break under their bill, independent studies agree that millions of middle-class families will ultimately see a tax hike. While Republicans claim that a corporate tax break will trickle down to workers, there is little evidence to bear this out. The economy is growing and the Dow Jones just cracked 24,000 for the first time in its history—and yet companies aren’t raising wages. There is no reason to believe that they will behave any differently if suddenly presented with a much lower tax rate. Indeed, corporations have indicated that, if the law passes, they will hoard the profits or pay them out to shareholders, instead of raising wages or investing.



The bill’s effect on the deficit has caused some hand-wringing among Republicans, who traditionally rail against deficit growth any time a Democrat is in the Oval Office. There were reports earlier this week that some Republicans were considering a provision that would trigger automatic tax increases if the bill failed to achieve the kind of economic growth Republicans have promised. But that would be too responsible, and was quickly shot down. Instead, the Republicans have turned to their favorite deficit-cutting tool: slashing programs for the needy. Although it’s not yet clear what, if any, deficit “trigger” Republicans will include in the bill, reports on Wednesday indicate that they’ve settled on one that will involve automatic spending cuts, including to programs like Medicare.



As damaging as this bill would be, the outrage has been minimal. As I argued earlier this week, this is partly the media’s fault, which has failed to convey the true depths of what should be a national scandal. But the speed and complexity of this legislation has also quelled the kind of activism that helped kill Obamacare repeal over the summer. No individual aspect of this bill is quite as bad as the nucleus of Republican health care reform: 24 million people losing their health insurance at a stroke. But in aggregate, the tax reform bill is at least as bad. Eleven million people could be uninsured, while premiums spike. Medicare and Medicaid could be made vulnerable to sweeping cuts. More money in the economy will be funneled toward the top. These are serious consequences for a bill that is supposedly about cutting taxes.

