I. Offense

Pluses

Above-the-head release with generally consistent mechanics and a fluid overall movement. Quick release speed (catch-and-shoot motion averaging ~0.7 seconds). Arrow-straight posture with a fully erect spine throughout the motion. Maximum involvement of wrist; left hand uninvolved

Demonstrates quality touch in a variety of scenarios. Can utilize backboard to his advantage at tough angles. Shooter’s touch seen during instances of scoop-shots, runners, jump-hooks, floaters (note: infrequent) and jump shots

Absurd passing ability for his age. Enormous transition threat, catalyzed by his ability to make instant reads following the defensive rebound–here he can thread the needle long-distance, or utilize his entire body to fire missiles from the length of the court. Hits the skip pass with regularity. Passes out of the post comfortably. Habitually hits the roller in stride. Passing is backed with desirable overall velocity, featuring excellent accuracy to hit his shooters right in the pocket

Plus-level handle, especially at his height of 6’7.5″(?). Comfortably involves the left hand. Has flashed some advanced dribble-moves in traffic, however seldom seen. Throws out low-sitting rapid-fire dribbles which often assist in step-back creation

Projects to be an outstanding cutter in the right circumstances. Immediately recognizes defensive give and quickly slides into the lane to exploit. Throws in fakes off-ball. Overall potential here is upped by his quick acceleration rate

Legitimate equity as both and off- and on-ball scorer. This is largely thanks to his size paired with solid fundamentals, coordination levels, and feel. May not excel in any one particular facet of scoring, but shows talent around the basket, in the pick-and-roll, and in spotting up alike (has exhibited the ability to pull up from NBA 3P-range off the dribble, while incorporating step-backs)

Can show nice patience near the rim, often utilizing a single pump-fake and his derriere to great effect

Minuses

While Avdija’s jump shot mechanics largely project well, he does have a tendency to occasionally short-arm free throws. Prone to excess step-taking preceding the hoist, and a forward-swinging right leg (corresponding with shots missing wide). Additionally, mechanics are subject to change in the presence of a tough contest–his efficiency follows suit here

Can improve drastically as a finisher. Struggles to get lift in the lane (note a curious affinity for a right-footed leap); pinballs between his opponents as his strength levels don’t allow for any separation. Demonstrates craft and touch, but the non-existence of a left hand hurts his dynamism here

Given ability to manipulate the ball and his plus-levels of coordination, currently shows unrealized dribbling potential. Over-reliant on employing a through-the-legs lull as you see with James Harden, without the crossovers etc. to diversify. Resistant to go left. Hesitation dribble could use more speed variance and sell. Current lack of East-West shake, especially once he has encroached beyond 3P-line territory. All of the above hurts potential for dynamic off-the-dribble play and does not help in counteracting finishing deficiencies

In-between game is lacking. Evidence of a dribble pull-up is virtually nonexistent; floaters are rarely accessed. Does not face up following the entry pass

Particularly streaky shooter with lower efficiency marks than you’d expect, versus youth and professional counterparts alike. Long-term catch-and-shoot and free throw percentages project to climb and stabilize, but there are legitimate “overall” questions about efficiency–especially if forced to create versus superior athletes

Has shown understanding of how to seal off weak side help rotation, but has close to zero interest in screen-setting for teammates

Questions to Consider

Has toyed with the concept of splitting pick-and-roll defenders, but has not successfully slipped through the gap and/or maintained his handle. Does he have the physical tools to pair with this level of recognition?

When turning to his right shoulder, has demonstrated a strong tendency in favoring release speed over explosion, where he’ll use a falling righty scoop-shot as a go-to. If ultimately utilizing both shoulders, fade-aways, and face-ups, is it possible his post game opens up the offensive end?

Can he further boost his passing promise by utilizing left-handed abilities? Can he become even more dangerous in the pick-and-roll by incorporating quick-hitting bounce passes? Can he access tactics for manipulation (i.e. eyes and posture) during these sequences?

Can Deni’s strength training and practice regimen allow for notable improvements in finishing through contact and establishing position (note: also applicable to instances with in the P&R where he shows half-hearted dedication to “jailing” the defender)?

II. Defense

Pluses

Has demonstrated the ability to read ahead of the play by seeking out passes and upcoming hoists, regularly grabbing steals and nabbing the occasional block as a help defender

Size and lateral speed transect at a point that give upside for three-position defensive versatility. While revealing some signs of stiffness in a stance and with sudden East-West shifts, shows decent lateral speed for size

Shown ability (albeit inconsistent) to recalibrate balance distribution nicely when executing a North-South hip-swap, often seen when closing out on shooters. This is a product of his light-footed, forward-leaning posturing

Isn’t an above-the-rim rebounder, nor is he especially physical on the glass, but demonstrates generally good feel here. Size will also help rack up numbers when matched with smaller guards of a similar prototype

Shows signs of high level screen navigation off-ball, stemming from the aforementioned offensive talents in this area

Has flashed evidence of highly capable close-out defense, particularly by guaranteeing a non-fly-by via application of proper spacing, deceleration, and contest lift in relation to the shooter

Excellent reaction time: deflections, loose balls, incoming opposition

Minuses

Application of chest bump extremely minimal–grants too much space and optimal pathing for the ball-handler

Too often seen using arms to reach/hold after the initial couple steps while moving laterally–this invites fouls and blow-bys. Would hope for a cleaner transition from a lateral slide to a turn-and-run

Upwards of 90 percent of Avdija’s contests feature “hands up” posturing and little else (standing reach+vertical at the rim is less than impressive to boot). Despite this tendency, he often finds himself in foul trouble from neglecting to employ proper verticality

Could use better efficiency of movement, getting into a balanced stance earlier in the sequence

Rate of deceleration-acceleration involving an East-West shift leaves room for improvement

Needs to do a much better job of monitoring weak side activity and with rotating in accordance

Doesn’t have the bulk to bang with post players

Questions to Consider

Thus far, Deni has shown a curious proclivity for smacking perimeter shooters on the arm/wrist with regularity. How long will this take to eliminate?

Can he employ a more aggressive on-ball style, taking guys out of their comfort zone?

Will Avdija have the quicks to at least hold his own against waterbug types at the next level?

Can his reaction speed and IQ extend to situations involving weak side help/rover defense?

If he’s to do away with his tendency to merely throw two hands up, does Deni have potential for above-the-rim shot altering?

III. Physical Profile & Miscellaneous

Likely lands in the B-minus tier athletically among archetypes of the same ilk. High selling points are steady posture, rate of acceleration, and coordination levels

Unimpressive wingspan at +1.5″ differential

A-tier reaction speed

Can go up to 10 strides without his heels touching the floor–Tip Toe Extraordinaire

Processes the game exceptionally well for his age, and seems to aptly extend that knowledge to his teammates. Positive implications regarding leadership

Fluctuation in game-to-game energy output brings forth questions: work load-related, or entirely context-based?

Unspectacular evidence of a natural inclination to sacrifice: playing through contact, setting screens, taking charges

Capable of adding some muscle to his 215-pound frame–particularly in the upper body, and in further developing core strength

Maximum vertical may sit in the 33-34″ range when involving a full run-up in space

Small steps, sometimes to excess. Has been seen taking 8 steps when others may take 3-4

Defensive ceiling may be limited by stiffness and Happy Feet tendencies creating for inefficient pathing

IV. Archetypal Diagnosis

Offense: Secondary Creator

Defense: Versatile/Team-D

V. Gradient Score vs. Same-Archetype Prospects

VI. Overall Outlook

In examining the extent of the “Minuses” and “Questions to Consider” categories, it may be easy to come away with a lot of skepticism regarding the prospects of Deni Avdija’s overall potential. Plenty does bode well, however: Avdija’s size can only improve, and he’s already demonstrated superior IQ levels, reaction times, and “feel” compared to many of the NBA’s long-term vets. If he’s able to see natural progression in his off-the-dribble scoring and can steady his jump shot percentages, Deni can quickly and easily evolve into a strong Secondary Creator type who provides supplemental all-around production. He may not be at the top of my list in the upcoming NBA draft, but he’s certainly worth strong consideration.