So what would a Trump-Clinton matchup look like this fall? As our colleague Dan Balz notes, it is hard to imagine Trump changing his combative, unpredictable style

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He plastered his opponents with nicknames –— “Lyin’ Ted,” and “Little Marco” –— that have helped define them.

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“He always counterattacks ferociously. He also finds a way to define his opponent in a way that shrinks and limits them. These aren’t just barroom brawl tactics. They are to define semantically his opponents in ways they can’t get out of, Hillary being the next great experiment,” former House speaker Newt Gingrich told Balz.

But in Clinton, Trump is up against a known quantity. She has high negatives, and Team Trump insists that the potential is there to make them go up even more. But voters have had more than a quarter-century to make up their minds about her.

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Will they believe his gibes about her stamina? Can he convince voters that she is, as he put it, “Incompetent Hillary”? Will “Crooked Hillary” sound like old news? Will his allusions to Bill Clinton’s past marital infidelities stick, coming from a man whose own life has been a staple of a New York tabloids going back to the 1980s?

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Moreover, Clinton has built a massive political infrastructure to deal with the onslaught.

The celebrity billionaire, for the first time, may be at a disadvantage in that regard. “Donald Trump does not have one finance chairman in one state. It’s amazing,” Stuart Stevens told me. Stevens was a top strategist for 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney and is a persistent Trump critic. “He’s about to walk into a $1 billion buzzsaw.”

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And he may take other Republicans there with him, as previewed by a new ad in the Arkansas Senate race, in which Democratic challenger Conner Eldridge seeks to tie GOP incumbent John Boozman to a series of inflammatory comments that Trump has made about women.

What Democrats say worries them most about Trump in the fall is his sheer unpredictability, and the degree to which he represents something larger that is going on in the electorate.

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While polls suggest Clinton would win handily against Trump, she also must pick her shots carefully.

“Given the anti-status quo environment in the country, Democrats need to prepare for a close and competitive general election against Donald Trump, and it would be a mistake to underestimate Trump or presume he cannot win in November,” said Geoff Garin, a top strategist in Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign who now works with the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA.

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David Axelrod, who was President Obama’s top political adviser, told the 202: “She has to be disdainful of him, without being disdainful of the people who support him.”

Watch the Arkansas ad, running only on the web, below:

INDIANA PRIMARY TONIGHT IS MAKE-OR-BREAK FOR CRUZ:

If Cruz loses big, as the polls suggest, it could dramatically change the GOP race. The Texas senator's path to the GOP nod becomes even narrower:

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-- This was supposed to be the Midwestern state that would deny Trump the delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination. But now, Indiana appears poised to help the front-runner get closer to locking it up. Philip Rucker, David Weigel and Sean Sullivan write that Trump has been buoyed in the state by two main forces:

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The first is his populist messages about trade deals: Trump’s rallying cries against a “rigged” and “corrupt” political system have resonated in a state whose manufacturing economy is hollowing out. “All spring, Trump has hammered Carrier for shuttering its Indianapolis furnace factory and relocating to Mexico — a plant closing that has gotten considerable local news attention.”

The second is his newfound “aura of inevitability”: “You cannot underestimate the impact that Trump winning all counties last week in the ‘Acela primary’ had on Indiana,” said GOP strategist Scott Reed. “A month ago, Cruz was leading Trump by 20 percent in Indiana. Trump’s wins, coupled with landing his plane in state, has driven voters into his column.”

-- The New York Times's Alexander Burns notes: "The Indiana vote has emerged as a decisive and perhaps final test for Senator Ted Cruz, who has abandoned hope of overtaking Mr. Trump in the race but still aims to throw the Republican nominating fight to a contested convention in July.... Mr. Cruz has signaled that he intends to forge ahead irrespective of the outcome in Indiana.... He spent part of the weekend campaigning in California, which is among the last states to vote, on June 7, and collected the endorsement of former Gov. Pete Wilson, who warned that Mr. Trump would doom the party as its nominee. But Mr. Wilson conceded in an interview on Monday that a defeat in Indiana would imperil Mr. Cruz’s path forward. To win California, Mr. Wilson said, 'the first thing he needs to do is win in Indiana.'"

Meanwhile, in a telling moment, Cruz came face-to-face with the forces working against him outside a campaign stop in Marion, where Trump supporters were heckling him from across the street: “Cruz approached and engaged the demonstrators. One of them told him, ‘Indiana don’t want you.’ ‘Sir, America is a better country — ' Cruz said, at which point the man interrupted to say: ‘Without you.’” See the exchange below:

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-- "Trump closes out Indiana by looking past it," by Politico's Ben Schreckinger: “Donald Trump is over this primary. On the eve of Indiana’s vote … Trump spent his final day of campaigning here looking ahead to November — touting general election polling, lunching with a prominent Clinton gadfly, and making the case that the Republican nominating contest is all but over. ‘The people of Indiana are going to put me over the top and we can focus on Hillary Clinton,’ Trump told supporters at the Century Center here Monday evening, moving past Cruz and Kasich. At a stop earlier in the day, in Carmel, Trump ran out of ways to make the point. ‘If we win Indiana it’s over. They’re finished. They’re finished. They’re gone,’ he said. ‘They have no path, whereas I have a very easy path.’”

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-- Indianapolis Star: Trump sought to downplay [Indy Gov. Mike] Pence’s endorsement of Cruz during a stop at Shapiro’s Delicatessen in Indianapolis, calling the endorsement "a very weak one” and suggested Pence’s decision came after “a lot of pressure from his donors.” “He continued to criticize the endorsement later in the day during a rally at the Center for Performing Arts in Carmel. ‘All the pundits said, ‘You know what, I think that was maybe the weakest endorsement in the history of endorsements,’’ Trump said. ‘In the end, they had to re-run the tape just to find out who he was endorsing.’”

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-- Nonetheless, Pence stumped for Cruz for the first time since his Friday endorsement: “With his presidential ambitions hanging in the balance, Cruz addressed criticism of the endorsement during stops with Pence in Fort Wayne and Marion. ‘Some folks in the media confused Midwest nice for less-than-enthusiastic,” Cruz said of [Pence’s] endorsement.” The Texas senator closed out the day with a rally at the Indiana State Fairgrounds, where he was joined by his running-mate, Carly Fiorina.

-- On the Democratic side, Clinton holds a narrow four-point lead over Bernie Sanders, edging out the Vermont senator 50 percent to 46 percent, according to Sunday’s NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. The Evansville Courier and Post reported on Sanders's rally on Monday: “Is Indiana ready for a political revolution? [Bernie] Sanders asked that to a passionate crowd of more than 3,000 during a rally in Downtown Evansville Monday morning. Unlike crowds for the other two presidential rallies in town — Republicans Ted Cruz and Donald Trump — the standing crowd was vocal the entire speech — boos when Clinton's name was mentioned, jeers at the mention of super delegates, praise for his free public college plan and hurrahs for calls for income equality. ‘It looks like you're not afraid of the establishment,’ Sanders said to the youth-filled crowd."

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-- Old and young voters turned out for a Sanders rally in Evansville Monday: “[66-year-old] Carole Hook jumped on the Sanders bandwagon about a year ago. ‘I just believe he's such a good guy,’ Hook said. ‘He worries about the common people.’ Tyler Owens, 16, of Evansville, can't vote yet, but he supports Sanders. [And] Sherry Williams decided to bring her granddaughter and her friend to the Sanders rally. ‘I think it's important to do research and hear your candidate speak’” she said.

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-- Meanwhile, Clinton faced a tough crowd in West Virginia, from ABC News’ Meridith McGraw: “…Clinton kicked off a two-day tour of West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky by saying she was ‘sad’ and ‘sorry’ about the reaction to her saying in a CNN town hall in March, ‘we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business’…. At a campaign event in Williamson, West Virginia, on Monday evening, Bo Copley, who identified himself as an out-of-work coal miner, poignantly asked Clinton ‘how you can say you’re going to put a lot of coal miners out of -- out of jobs and then come in here and tell us how you’re going to be our friend.’ ‘Because those people out there don’t see you as a friend,’ Copley said, referring to protesters who had gathered outside the Williamson Health and Wellness Center.” Across the street, Trump supporters held signs reading 'Coal' and 'Vote for Trump.'"

-- Actor Sean Astin from “Lord of the Rings” and “Rudy” fame will stump for Clinton in Muncie, Ind., today. The actor will also make stops in Fort Wayne and Indianapolis, according to the Star Press.

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--Trump got a boost in Indiana from former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who sent out this message on Twitter supporting The Donald. It's the second boost from a Hoosier sports figure: ex-Indiana University basketball coach Bobby Knight has already backed Trump.

--Nate Cohn, from The New York Times' Upshot, shows in one tweet why Trump is winning Indiana and Cruz is falling behind. The Donald's favorables are rising among Republicans while Cruz's are falling.

GET SMART FAST:​​

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A car bombing detonated on Monday in Baghdad, killing at least 18 Shiite pilgrims commemorating the death of a revered imam. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. (AP) Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said NATO is considering placing thousands of additional troops near Russia’s border on a “rotational basis” to deter future aggression: “The Pentagon chief would not specify what countries would contribute troops but said the possible deployment is one of several options being weighed by the alliance.” ( “The Pentagon chief would not specify what countries would contribute troops but said the possible deployment is one of several options being weighed by the alliance.” ( Thomas Gibbons-Neff Jamaican police said they are trying to determine the motive in the weekend slaying of two American missionaries who lived and worked on the island. The missionaries were apparently slain on their way to check on the foundation of a home they were building for a needy family. ( The missionaries were apparently slain on their way to check on the foundation of a home they were building for a needy family. ( A P Treasury Secretary Jack Lew urged Congress to pass Puerto Rico debt restructuring legislation, warning that the island may need a U.S. government bailout if lawmakers refuse to act. (Mike DeBonis) Tennessee lawmakers passed a bill allowing staff and faculty at public colleges to carry concealed handguns on campus. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) allowed the bill to become law but did not sign it, saying he disagreed with the legislation for not allowing institutions "to make their own decisions” on the security measure. ( Gov. Bill Haslam (R) allowed the bill to become law but did not sign it, saying he disagreed with the legislation for not allowing institutions "to make their own decisions” on the security measure. ( Elahe Izadi Colorado’s Supreme Court struck down two local fracking bans in a lengthy battle over energy production, ruling that municipalities could not preempt state law. (Wall Street Journal) A former FBI agent pleaded guilty to stealing more than $136,000 in cash seized during drug investigations, admitting he used the funds to buy cars and plastic surgery. ( admitting he used the funds to buy cars and plastic surgery. ( L.A. Times An Illinois woman is suing Starbucks, claiming the chain under-fills their cold beverages by adding a disproportionate amount of ice. (Sarah Larimer) Josh Earnest defended Larry Wilmore's use of the n-word during the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner Saturday, saying Obama "appreciated the spirit” of the comedian’s expressions. ( saying Obama "appreciated the spirit” of the comedian’s expressions. ( Juliet Eilperin The Marine Corps is investigating whether it misidentified one of the men shown raising the U.S. flag on Iwo Jima, after two “ after two “ amateur history buffs ” raised questions about the famous World War II photo. ( Thomas Gibbons-Neff Scientists discovered a trio of Earth-like exoplanets that they say may be our “best ever shot” at finding signs of alien life. (Rachel Feltman) Hulu is developing a new subscription service that would stream feeds of popular broadcast and cable TV channels, a move that would “make the company a competitor to traditional pay-TV providers and digital entrants.” ( a move that would “make the company a competitor to traditional pay-TV providers and digital entrants.” ( Wall Street Journal Hulk Hogan is suing Gawker for a second time over the release of a leaked video transcript in which he is quoted as using racial slurs. In March, Hogan won $140 million from the online company in a sex tape lawsuit. ( In March, Hogan won $140 million from the online company in a sex tape lawsuit. ( New York Times

POLLING ROUNDUP:

-- Republicans see their nominating contest as all but wrapped up, with 91 percent of GOP voters saying they believe Trump will be the party nominee, according to a CNN/ORC poll.

39 percent of voters said they would be “enthusiastic” if Trump won the party nomination, compared to 21 percent for Cruz and 16 percent for John Kasich. More voters also reported they would be “dissatisfied or upset” with Cruz or Kasich winning the nomination than Trump.

And for GOP voters NOT backing Trump, nearly half said the real estate mogul is their “backup candidate”: 43 percent listed Trump as their second choice, with nearly a third choosing Cruz or Kasich. 15 percent said their choice is someone other than the remaining candidates.

-- Trump is leading Cruz in California by more than 17 points, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls in the state: The GOP front-runner tops the field with 50 percent of voters, with Cruz at 24 percent and Kasich at 17 percent. “A month ago, Trump lead by 8 points,” Philip Bump says of the survey average. “Today, he leads by 26.”

-- Kasich’s support is waning even among Ohioans: A new PPP poll shows only 38 percent of Kasich’s home state voters think he should stay in the race, compared to 49 percent who say the Buckeye State governor should suspend his campaign.

Many feel as though he is neglecting his job, with only 31 percent of voters saying Kasich pays enough attention to his gubernatorial duties.

-- “Carly, we hardly knew ye,” Post columnist Dana Milbank quipped: “In a case of exceptionally bad timing, Fiorina hitched herself to Cruz at precisely the moment his candidacy began to implode…. It’s not Fiorina’s fault that news broke just after her ‘nomination’ was announced that former House speaker Boehner … had called Cruz ‘Lucifer in the flesh.’ Nor was it Fiorina’s fault that Indiana Gov. Mike Pence on Friday gave Cruz such a tepid endorsement.… But if Fiorina picked investments the way she picked her candidate, you can see why HP stopped requiring her services. She bought Cruz at the peak, when polls showed him close in Indiana.” Milbank also pans Fiorina's singing.

-- And a Morning Consult poll shows Fiorina did little to move the needle in Cruz’s favor, with 25 percent of GOP voters saying Fiorina made them more likely to vote for Cruz, while 24 percent said less likely. Her addition did virtually nothing to bolster Cruz's support among Republican women: 21 percent said of female voters said they were more likely to vote for Cruz, 20 percent said less likely.

-- Fiorina’s own favorability ratings have hardly increased since she conceded her own presidential bid in February, giving further credence to the notion that Cruz’s announcement was both hasty and ill-planned:

Today, 41 percent of GOP voters have a favorable view of Fiorina, up just five points from when she suspended her campaign. Her unfavorable ratings have remained unchanged at 36 percent.

-- “Most of the political world now expects Cruz to emulate his running mate Carly Fiorina by falling down in Indiana,” The Washington Examiner’s W. James Antle III writes: “The only question is whether he will be able to get up as quickly…. Whether this conventional wisdom reflects the facts on the ground in Tuesday's pivotal primary state remains to be seen. But in a cruel twist for Cruz, who was gaining on Republican front-runner Donald Trump just weeks ago, Fiorina's unfortunate slip from the stage now looks like an apt metaphor for a campaign coming apart….”

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- Trump said he has more foreign policy experience than “virtually anybody”: The GOP front-runner claimed his experience building a global business empire has given him “more experience than virtually anybody looking at this office,” including former secretary of state Hillary Clinton. “Right now we have hundreds of deals being negotiated all over the world,” Trump said on CNN. “I deal with presidents, I deal with prime ministers, I deal with everybody.” (Jenna Johnson)

-- "For the first time in his campaign, Trump is leading the rush to get advertisements on the air:" The GOP front-runner launched a roughly $200,000 ad buy in Nebraska, becoming the first candidate to reserve airtime ahead of the state’s May 10 contest. The ad buy marks a shift in strategy for Trump’s campaign, which has declined to advertise advertising ahead of many contests this year. (New York Times)

MORE ON THE DEMOCRATIC RACE:

-- Clinton outraised Sanders for the first time in months, with $26.4 million in primary donations compared to his $25.8 million. But the numbers have more to do with a drop-off in Sanders’s donations than a spike in Clinton's -- the Vermont senator’s numbers dropped nearly 40 percent from March, reflecting his narrowing chances at becoming the party nominee. (Anne Gearan)

-- Jane Sanders echoed her husband’s belief that the Democratic primary will end in a contested convention: “Neither Hillary nor Bernie will get the requisite number of pledged delegates to be able to wrap the nomination before the convention,” she told MSNBC’s Chris Hayes. “The fact is, it's not over until it's over.” (Washington Examiner)

WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:

-- Is 2016 the year that geeky campaign rhetoric has gone mainstream? Ben Terris reports on the rise of “strategist speak”: “It used to be that only staffers spoke this way: jargon-filled playbookese, such as the non-basketball usage of the word ‘pivot’ and non-transportation usage of the word ‘lane.’ They kept it behind the scenes to make sure a campaign seemed authentic, as if the candidate was too busy thinking big thoughts about the future to ever bother with reading his polls or focus-grouping his talking points. Lately, though, it’s not so much about showing a vision as showing your work.... Trump has been far more forthcoming about his plans as a candidate than, say, his plans as a president. ‘I think Jeb would have been the nominee had I not gotten in,’ Trump told the New York Times. ‘But I was able to define Jeb early.’ After every election cycle there are books and symposiums by strategists offering their postmortem of what went right and what went wrong. In 2016, it happens in real time.

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

The line for Trump's South Bend event was huge:

Anna Kendrick went nuts on Twitter over the moment her song played at #NerdProm:

It was Princess Charlotte's first birthday:

Another Twitter riff on Game of Thrones, this time by Jon Lovett:

Spotted at the White House: Robert Redford:

Jason Chaffetz was nostalgic about his daughter, who is getting married this week:

Pat Leahy posted this shot of Cory Booker:

Who took the opportunity to poke fun at Cruz:

2016 in a nutshell: when photos like this one prompt racist screeds on Twitter:

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

-- The stakes are higher than ever for Cruz in Indiana, with a number of big donors threatening to abandon the “Stop Trump” effort that has spent millions on his behalf: From Politico’s Shane Goldmacher: More than a half-dozen Republicans involved in the pro-Cruz, anti-Trump push said Indiana was crucial for Cruz to keeping the cash flowing, as “skittish donors have grown weary after a string of recent losses.” “If he can’t be stopped in Indiana, you will have a lot of [mega-donors] … who just throw up their arms and say, ‘Well, I guess he can’t be stopped,’” said Erick Erickson … “They’re not going to get on board Trump but they’re not going to continue to invest in what they perceive as a lost cause.”

Cruz has run through the entire political playbook to win Indiana. “He struck a nonaggression pact with Kasich. He bought TV ads. He blitzed the Sunday shows. He barnstormed the state on a bus tour. He got the governor’s endorsement. He even named his running mate … And if all that is not enough, it’s not clear what would be — both to anti-Trump donors, and to those inside his own campaign. "If we lose Indiana, we have to do some soul searching," said one top Cruz adviser, adding things are looking "rough right now."

HOT ON THE LEFT: “Supreme Court Delivers A Victory For Supporters Of Seattle’s Minimum Wage Law,” from HuffPost: “The U.S. Supreme Court rejected a sweeping constitutional challenge to Seattle’s minimum wage law, in what could have been a test case for future legal attacks on similar measures across the country. In a one-line order, the justices declined to hear a case by the International Franchise Association and a group of Seattle franchisees, which had said in court papers that the city’s gradual wage increase to $15 discriminates against them in a way that violates the Constitution’s commerce clause.” HOT ON THE RIGHT: “Panel wants to know how many people Gitmo prisoners have killed,” from the Washington Examiner: “Legislation passed by the House Intelligence Committee would require feds to disclose records on the Guantanamo Bay detainees who Obama is seeking to release, including information on who they've killed. Though information about the terrorists is largely classified, defense officials have provided hints in the past.” "What I can tell you is, unfortunately, there have been Americans that have died because of detainees," said Paul Lewis, the Pentagon's special envoy for Guantanamo's closure.”

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Here's the rundown:

Clinton: Athens, Ohio; Charleston, W.Va.

Sanders: Louisville, Lexington, Ky.

Trump: New York, N.Y.

Cruz: Westfield, Evansville, Indianapolis, Ind.

At the White House: President Obama and Vice President Biden meet with Secretary of State John Kerry. Obama honors the 2016 National Teacher of the Year and finalists. Biden holds a meeting with the presidents of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

On Capitol Hill: The House meets at 3 p.m. The Senate is not in session.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: Pakistan’s Interior minister lambasted Trump for demanding the release of an imprisoned doctor who helped the CIA hunt down Osama bin Laden, calling his foreign policy “ignorant” and “misguided.” Chaudry Nisar Ali Khan said: “Pakistan is not a colony of the United States of America,” the interior minister said in response. “[Trump] should learn to treat sovereign nations with respect.”

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Make sure to bring your umbrella – it’s going to be another gray day with lots of showers ahead. The Capital Weather Gang forecasts: “Cool and cloudy conditions carry us through the day with showers that keep things on the damp side. We should have more dry than wet periods in the afternoon at least, but those clouds hold strong. Highs range from the upper 50s to middle 60s.”

-- Virginia Republicans hired a lawyer to challenge an executive order signed by Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), which gives more than 200,000 ex-convicts the right to vote. GOP lawmakers said his actions were in “flagrant disregard” of the state constitution. (Laura Vozzella)

-- Police are searching for a Chevy Chase female who assaulted a woman in hijab, pouring liquid on her and calling her a “Muslim piece of trash.” Authorities do not know whether the two women knew each other prior to the encounter but are investigating it as a hate crime. (Julie Zauzmer)

-- Virginia’s Supreme Court ruled gay couples can be legally considered to have “a relationship analogous to marriage” after cohabitating for one year. The decision reverses a long-held law stating that legally recognized marriage could only occur between a man and a woman. (Tom Jackman)

-- A District man was arrested after stealing a pizza delivery vehicle in Arlington. (Dana Hedgpeth and Justin Wm. Moyer)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Need to catch up on the reporter brawl after the White House Correspondents' Dinner? Read about it and watch some related footage here.

Check out Queen Elizabeth and Prince Harry as they watch a cellphone video from the Obamas:

Fiorina fell off the stage while campaigning with Cruz:

Trump said he would have helped her (Cruz did not):