Labour fails to capitalise on Theresa May’s turbulent year, ‘poll of polls’ shows Two main parties are level-pegging as New Year dawns with key decisions ahead on Brexit

Labour has failed to capitalise on Theresa May’s woes as the main parties enter the New Year virtually deadlocked in public support, according to an exclusive “poll of polls” for the i.

Backing for Jeremy Corbyn’s party fell back over 2018 despite 12 months of turbulence within Conservative ranks including multiple Cabinet resignations, a failed plot to oust Mrs May and massive opposition to her Brexit plans.

A weighted average of December’s opinion polls puts the Conservatives on 39 per cent support, narrowly ahead of Labour on 38 per cent.

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There is little evidence of a resurgence for any other party, with the Liberal Democrats averaging 9 per cent and Ukip and the Green Party each on 4 per cent.

Political turmoil

The “poll of polls”, calculated by Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, suggests that Labour support dropped by three points over the year, while backing for the Tories was down by one point.

Although 2018 was a year of intense political turmoil, neither main party managed to achieve a breakthrough, and their positions remain broadly in line with their performances in the June 2017 general election.

Political leaders will be anxious to see how this month’s Commons showdown over Mrs May’s proposed Brexit deal with Brussels will affect the impasse.

Eurosceptic rebellion

The Prime Minister faces a rebellion from scores of Eurosceptic backbenchers while Mr Corbyn is under mounting internal pressure to back a second Brexit referendum.

Sir John said his figures, repeated at a general election, pointed to another hung parliament, with both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn struggling to put together a majority government.

The former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair has argued that the party should be 20 points ahead “given the disarray of the government, given the mess that the most important decision since the Second World War has turned into”.

Mr Corbyn told i last month that he wished Labour had more support, but pointed to local council gains and argued that his party had only received “anything like a fair hearing” during the election campaign and since then had faced “unremitting hostility from most of the media”.

Lib Dems’ modest progress

The Liberal Democrats have made only modest progress over the year under Sir Vince Cable, edging up from average support of seven per cent to nine per cent, although they performed more strongly in the 2018 local elections with 16 per cent of votes cast.

Backing for the Green Party doubled to four per cent, while there is no sign of a revival for Ukip, whose support collapsed after the EU referendum.

The biggest test of opinion this year will take place on 2 May when elections are held in 270 councils in England and Northern Ireland.