Trump may cause pain at the pump

Given the geopolitical backdrop, crude oil prices could rise enough to offset the seasonal decline in gasoline prices that Americans usually enjoy in the autumn, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. If Brent crude rises another $10, to $90 a barrel, the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline would top today's national average, according to Lipow. The same goes for jet fuel and the diesel that powers the nation's shipping fleet. "As a result, the consumer should expect to pay more for their airline tickets," he said. "Higher diesel prices are going to be passed through to the consumer in higher prices for goods and services." Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, expects Americans to see a smaller-than-usual dip in gas prices this fall, due to bullish oil market factors such as Trump's tough stance on Iran. "The national average usually will decline anywhere from 20 to 35 cents. This year it might only be 5 to 10, maybe 15 cents, if we're lucky," he said. The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration recently forecast that the national average gasoline price is unlikely to breach $3 a gallon , after topping out at $2.96 at the end of May. But some analysts are not convinced. "I would take the bet with the EIA that maybe we haven't seen the highest prices of the year because there's just too much going on and too may things that can lift gasoline," said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service. Those include potential outages at refineries that process crude into fuels, or hurricane-season storms that knock out part of the nation's oil drilling, refining and transportation system, according to Kloza. It's also uncertain that the Saudis can meet Trump's recent request to raise output by up to 2 million barrels per day. While Trump initially suggested King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud agreed, the White House later clarified Saudi Arabia would tap its spare capacity if and when that becomes necessary and only after it consults with other members of OPEC — some of whom oppose further supply hikes. While Saudi Arabia can certainly increase output, pumping an additional 2 million bpd would be "the biggest public test of Saudi's spare capacity," Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.

Trump's Iran policy is 'risky'

OPEC, Russia and several other oil producers have partnered to limit their output since January 2017 to end an oil market downturn that sent prices to 12-year lows, bankrupted hundreds of U.S. energy companies and piled pressure on petrostates. That strategy put oil prices on a steady road to recovery, but the recovery accelerated ahead of Trump's decision in May to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and restore sanctions on the country. The cost of oil has surged more than 14 percent over the last three months, with Brent crude racking up its biggest quarterly gain in nearly six years and U.S. crude posting its best quarter in two years. U.S. crude jumped $6 a barrel in the last four days of the quarter after the State Department said it is telling oil buyers to stop importing Iranian crude by Nov. 4. That shocked the market, which anticipated Trump might allow buyers to gradually reduce their purchases, a model created by the Obama administration.