We know there will be an outbreak of COVID-19 in Austin, but the severity of the outbreak is up to us.

A new report from UT finds that if everyone in Austin reduces their human interaction by 90%, the city’s hospitals would be able to treat everyone who gets sick.

If people reduce their interaction by only 50% or 75%, hospitals in the five-county area around Austin will not have enough ventilators and beds to treat all COVID-19 patients.

Many people have been wondering when the peak of coronavirus cases will happen in Austin, but Lauren Ancel Meyers, professor of integrative biology and statistics and data sciences at UT, says the region can avoid a severe peak if people take social distancing seriously.

“If we really are able to be successful in reducing our interactions with each other and depressing and reducing the spread of the disease, we may not see a peak this summer,” she said. “However, we could have a very serious and devastating peak if we don’t take those actions soon.”

If people continue to have contact with others outside of their household and a peak does happen, Dell Medical School Dean Clay Johnston says the medical community is still trying to prepare for an onslaught of cases. He said hospitals are trying to get ready for what they call “surge capacity.”

“What if you double up rooms, what if you convert the emergency room into hospital beds, what if you convert clinic space into hospital beds or other buildings,” Johnston said.

Both Meyers and Johnston say this can be avoided if people continue to shelter in place and not come near others while in public.

So far, Austin-Travis County has reported 137 cases of COVID-19. Travis, Hays and Williamson counties have all issued stay-at-home orders to close many businesses and keep people inside except for essential travel and business.

Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt thanked the community, during a press conference Thursday, for reducing personal and business interactions by 50%, but she said we all need to work toward reducing it to 90%.

“We can do this if every one of us, before we leave the house, asks ourselves: 'Is what I’m about to do essential to the health and safety of myself, my family, my community?'” Eckhardt said. “If it’s not, stay home. If it is essential, follow the guidelines that have been laid out so clearly with regard to social distancing and hand washing. Our lives are literally in each other’s hands.”

Mayor Steve Adler said it’s challenging for police to enforce the shelter-in-place order across the whole city at all times, so it’s important for individuals to police their own behavior and that of others.

This post has been updated with the latest count of cases in Austin-Travis County.

Correction: This post has been updated to correct the spelling of Lauren Ancel Meyers.

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