For a while there, it looked like the Armageddon analysts had it right about the NDP.

The party which had performed so admirably in opposition in the dying days of the Harper regime tanked in the 2015 election. Thomas Mulcair underwent a personality transplant during the campaign. The best interrogator in the House of Commons — lightning quick, sharp-tongued and a walking Wikipedia — turned into a grimly smiling parody of himself.

Mulcair’s efforts to bury the “Angry Tom” image and adopt a PM-in-waiting aura by adopting fiscal conservatism (at exactly the wrong time) tanked spectacularly. The NDP got trounced and lost its Official Opposition status — along with its patience with the man who was supposed to complete the march to power begun by the late Jack Layton.

Mulcair was dumped, although he remains as interim leader. A leadership race was called, followed by a long, awkward silence. None of the party stars, including those who were defeated in the election (Megan Leslie, Paul Dewar, Peter Stoffer), wanted the gig. The heir apparent from the last NDP leadership race, Nathan Cullen, took a pass. Mired at 12 per cent in the polls and reduced to third-party status, the NDP had lost its swagger as an old question resurfaced: In the Trudeau Age (which could go on for some time), has the NDP outlived its usefulness?

Then the worm began to turn — as it always does in politics if only you wait long enough. For starters, a head-to-head comparison of Mulcair and Rona Ambrose is almost cruel. As he had before the 2015 election, the NDP leader easily eclipsed the interim leader of the Official Opposition — and the PM himself, for that matter — when the Commons got back to work. It was Mulcair who landed all the really telling blows against the government in question period, while Ambrose contented herself with delivering the odd amusing quip. No contest.

It’s hard to imagine how anyone could watch the televised proceedings of the House of Commons this year without coming to the conclusion that the New Democrats were back. The CPC leadership race only reinforced that impression. With a collection of shopworn Harper finger-puppets as candidates — people who only want to throw the Batmobile into reverse and floor it — it’s no longer a given that, if voters opt to dump Trudeau in 2019, they’ll automatically turn to the Conservatives. Prince Charming himself went from third-party to government. Why not the NDP?

Surprisingly, the Liberals themselves are busily removing any obstacles to the NDP reclaiming ownership of the Left, which they ceded to Trudeau in the last election. Although much was made during the campaign of Team Trudeau, make no mistake about it: This government is almost purely a personality cult. Trudeau’s coattails stretch from sea to sea to sea.

All of these factors create an opening for an NDP resurgence — because ownership of the Left is suddenly up for grabs again. All of these factors create an opening for an NDP resurgence — because ownership of the Left is suddenly up for grabs again.

With his undeniable charm, wholesome image and good looks, Trudeau has weathered his first year in office extraordinarily well. But while his personal approval rating remains sky-high, he is running far ahead of his party, which dropped nearly ten points in the latest Forum Research poll.

Small wonder, with so many of his ministers stepping in cowflops. Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr told worried businesspeople in Calgary that the police and the military would deal with any civil disobedience by anti-pipeline protesters. This was not music to the ears of First Nations chiefs, or environmentalists, or anyone who has been watching the debacle of Standing Rock. The Liberals apparently have forgotten that it was the Harperites who saw these people as terrorists. Carr’s subsequent backflip was unconvincing.

And with the PM presenting himself as a champion of youth, Finance Minister Bill Morneau invited young Canadians to prepare for a future of short-term contract positions and “job churn” — otherwise known as living hand-to-mouth. Remarkably, Trudeau picked up on this hopeless, defeatist message when he told a youth labour forum that precarious work is now a fact of life.

No wonder they booed him. Youth unemployment is double the national average; after a year of Trudeau, and despite his promise to create 125,000 new jobs for young people annually, that number remains stubbornly high.

Other cracks are appearing in Trudeau’s teflon. The plundering and blundering of the cash-for-access fundraisers has up to now been restricted to rhetorical volleys against the government in QP. But now Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson has decided she’s heard enough: She plans to personally interview the PM to see if he put himself in a conflict of interest by mingling with corporate aquarium-suckers seeking influence with ministers at political fundraisers for $1,500 a pop. (I hope he has better sense than to tell her that he attended these mating rituals for lobbyists to “champion” the middle class.)

Recently, Mulcair retweeted this from the Young New Democrats:

“Young Canadians, we have an important question for you. If you found $1,500, would you use it to: 1) Pay for tuition? 2) Pay for rent? 3) Pay for food? 4) Lobby the Youth Minister?

All of these factors create an opening for an NDP resurgence — because ownership of the Left is suddenly up for grabs again. Many of Trudeau’s critics are beginning to paint him as not the ‘new type’ of politician he presented himself as during the election — just a better salesman of the same policies flogged by Stephen Harper. Like Harper, he agreed to sell arms to a repressive regime in Saudi Arabia. As Damien Gillis recently put it in The Tyee, “Trudeau knew how to wrap heavy oil pipelines in a green bow.” (Harper only knew how to rap knuckles.) Trudeau has approved every controversial energy project that has come his way except one: Northern Gateway.

(While Trudeau is expanding tar sands projects, others are dropping out, in part to go green. Statoil, the Norwegian oil giant, is dumping its Canadian assets. The company spent US $2.2 billion for its tar sands lease in 2007; it is selling it for $832 million Canadian.)

This is where Trudeau’s biggest gift to the NDP comes in. By giving a green light to major fossil fuel development he’s calling into question his real commitment to the environment, and whether Canada can meet its 2030 emission targets. It’s hardly reassuring that those targets were adopted from the Harper government. “Canada is back,” Trudeau said — but not if the Paris climate talks were just a midsummer night’s dream.

If New Democrats can find a new leader half as good as the one on his way out, if they can somehow persuade young people, First Nations, workers and nervous members of the middle class that they’re the only authentic progressive voice in Canada now, they won’t be at 12 per cent for long.

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