As millions of Americans watched 10 Democrats hash out their differences—and claw for attention—in Detroit on Tuesday night, a handful watched with a much more practiced eye: Republican strategists who’ve been in that trench before, coaching candidates in the nasty 2016 primary.

POLITICO Magazine invited four of them to sit through all two-plus hours and tell readers what we just saw up there. Not just who won and who lost—though that matters—but who did themselves the biggest favors, and what (if anything) Donald Trump has to fear next year.


The consensus? Trump doesn’t have a lot to worry about yet, especially not with the various factions of the party hammering one another on issues like single-payer health care. But Mayor Pete has some real talents—and, weirdly, so does Marianne Williamson.



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Warren and Trump Won, Beto Bombed

David Polyansky was a senior political and communications adviser for Ted Cruz.

Elizabeth Warren did the most effective job defending her positions and beating back the onslaught from more centrist candidates on the stage—a large group that understandably came in with an agenda to draw a sharp contrast with her. She is in the upper echelon of primary polling, and the folks who support her today have no reason to waver after Tuesday’s performance. But in reality, the big winner was President Donald Trump, who was able to sit back and watch progressive and centrist candidates wildly swing at one another over a health care “cage match” that consumed the first 20-plus minutes of the debate.

Beto O’Rourke lost the debate. He simply couldn’t take advantage of his limited opportunities to speak, including his opening statement, to ignite the spark that attracted Democrats during his failed Senate bid. Simply put, Beto bombed. Another candidate who needed to stand out, Amy Klobuchar, was also a bit forgettable and never found her moment. She was given a few openings by the moderators to dive into pivotal points of the debate but kept delivering rehearsed talking points that were better suited for a 30-second cable ad than a nationally televised debate.

Steve Bullock was sharp, came across as relaxed, confident and reasonable, and drew important distinctions with both Warren and Bernie Sanders. He articulated an attractive centrist case, but he made his contrasts without coming across as petty, angry or desperate. The Montana governor was also well-equipped to defend his recently adjusted position on a proposed assault weapons ban—and able to flip the incoming hits into a discussion about some of his in-state successes. He did seem to lose a bit of steam during the closing stretch, and his nuclear-first exchange with Warren was one of the more awkward of the night. Overall, he and his team clearly put in the necessary preparation, and it showed.

I’m not sure any of the candidates on stage Tuesday would or should cause President Trump much concern. Even the most effective performers tonight were promoting policies that are too far out of the mainstream for a majority of Americans. That said, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a plain-speaking style coupled with energetic policy chops that allow him to make some of the most complicated issues seem reasonable, relatable and digestible. That’s a very tough one-two combination to counter on a debate stage.

Probably not much has changed from an electoral standpoint. The candidates that were already struggling continued to be irrelevant to the larger debate. The leaders of Tuesday’s group easily survived and will advance. The real question is: When will we start to see some of these folks drop out? Because there are simply too many candidates on stage for a meaningful and serious exchange of ideas and vision.



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The Moderates Did Biden’s Work for Him

Terry Sullivan was the campaign manager for Marco Rubio.

Joe Biden won this debate. The candidates on stage really went after each other tonight and in ways that highlighted how extreme some of their views are. The moderates on stage, who have no chance of winning, spent their time highlighting how far left and unelectable Warren and Sanders are. They were doing Biden’s work for him and he didn’t even get his hands dirty.

Beto O’Rourke lost. It turns out that he’s only charismatic and inspiring when the alternative is Ted Cruz.

Marianne Williamson went from the unknown, crazy candidate who had no chance of winning to the known, crazy candidate who has no chance of winning.

Pete Buttigieg continued to show how he is comfortable in his own skin and is able to look centrist while not alienating the liberal base.

The gloves are off. And the first votes won’t be cast for another seven months. This is gonna get ugly.



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Don’t Sleep on Buttigieg and—Amazingly—Williamson

Tim Miller was the communications director for Jeb Bush.

Warren, Buttigieg and Williamson won the debate by—in their own very different ways—making an urgent, compelling case against Trump and his enablers in Congress.

Kloubuchar and O’Rourke lost for blending in and losing one of the waning opportunities they have to get into the top tier.

On style, Warren showed she has the fight to go up against Trump. Buttigieg demonstrated he would be a stark generational and competence contrast in the general election. But on substance, Trump has to be pretty happy about all the internecine fighting and tacks to the left.

Besides Williamson fever, not much has changed. I think there's a yearning among Trump haters for someone to speak to the darkness that he has brought to the political debate, the country and, in many cases, their neighborhoods and families—without getting bogged down in the drivel of politics or friendly-fire feuds. She does that, obviously in a unique and kind of kooky way. But the concept is available to all of them. And I think if someone else spoke with a third of the passion and earnestness about Trump's hatefulness that she does, they would benefit.

I have to wonder if it is the beginning of the end of the mainstream TV news outlets getting primary debates. It’s unclear to me how it serves either national party to hand over these debates to media outlets that are incentivized to create fights for ratings.



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Centrism Should—But Won’t—Win

Beth Hansen was the campaign manager for John Kasich.

This debate gave voice to a common-sense Democratic agenda that aims to serve Americans “who shower when they come home from work.” CNN gave us a format where candidates could disagree on policy without being disagreeable, and there was a clear philosophical debate on issues.

While it was refreshing to hear centrist ideas that will appeal broadly to many Americans, Warren was the most clear, articulate and energized messenger of the more progressive views on stage Tuesday. (Honorable mention to Marianne Williamson.)

Bullock spoke with confidence about his personal narrative, his experience and his vision. If he can keep focus on his message and vision and not be distracted by President Trump, he would make a formidable general election opponent. (Honorable mention to Mayor Pete.)

After a three-hour marathon focused on philosophies and policies, contrary to popular belief, we will lose when some of these voices are gone from the next debate stage in Texas.