What if D-Day had failed?

The ultimate decision to launch the D-Day invasion was made by General Eisenhower. On issuing the order to go ahead he drafted a statement accepting full blame in the event of failure.

He wrote: "Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based upon the best information available. The troops, the air and the navy did all that bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault is attached to the attempt it is mine alone."

He would never need to issue the statement, and it remained in his uniform pocket unnoticed for weeks. But what if he had? What if the huge invasion force had been repelled? What if D-Day had failed?

Prof. Gary Sheffield, military historian

“Had D-Day failed, it would have been particularly costly for Britain. They were already running out of manpower, particularly the Army. I think failure would have given a huge boost to the ‘bomber barons’, like Arthur Harris, who were arguing that strategic air attacks on German cities could bring the country to its knees. There’s also a small possibility that the Americans would decide to go on the defensive in Europe and concentrate on defeating the Japanese instead.

I think the Soviets could have won the war singlehandedly, perhaps by 1946. I think we may well have seen the hammer and sickle flying not simply in Poland and Eastern Germany, but in Western Germany, the Benelux countries and France.”

Soenke Neitzel, Professor of International History

“Had D-Day failed, it would have given a major boost to morale in Germany. The German people expected this to be the decisive battle, and if they could beat the Allies they might be able to win the war. I think Hitler would have withdrawn his core divisions from the West to fight on the Eastern Front.

The Red Army launched a major offensive in late June which wiped out the German’s Army Group Centre, and I think the French divisions would have arrived too late to help. However, they would have been able to stop the Russians advancing further than they actually did.”

Prof. Dennis Showalter, military historian

“Had D-Day failed, there would have been an agonising reappraisal among the Americans who had pushed for a cross-channel invasion. Eisenhower would almost certainly have offered his resignation, it would almost certainly have had to be accepted. It’s also possible that US President Roosevelt could have lost the November 1944 election, so there could have been a change in administrations.

I think the Mediterranean campaign could have been revitalised, as here was somewhere where the Allies were achieving something and already had forces on the ground.”

Gen. Sir Richard Dannatt

“Had D-Day failed, with a costly loss of men and equipment, it would have taken years not months to gather the strength for another attempt at invasion. The Russians would probably have continued their advance towards Western Europe, but at a slower pace due to more German reserves being available to be deployed against them. I don't think strategic bombing would have brought a solution, and the U.S would have switched its main effort to the Pacific.

The intriguing question is: could the Allies still have managed to get an unconditional German surrender, or would there have been a negotiated end to the war? In that case, what would Europe look like today?”