In the long term, the ban could push the world toward divided technologies.

“The lesson the Chinese have taken from the Trump administration’s trade strategy is that the U.S. is pursuing a technology containment approach,” said Adam Segal, the director of the digital and cyberspace policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations. The solution is independence — something China has pushed for by encouraging domestic tech prowess, including in chip production.

“I think we are moving toward a bifurcated technology system,” Mr. Segal said. China uses Chinese products, and America uses American products.

A big question then: Which side do other countries take? The United States probably assumes the West will follow its lead. But nations like Britain and Germany aren’t yielding to American pressure to block Huawei from building next-generation 5G wireless networks over national security risks.

Poorer countries are likely to be won over by price: Huawei is one of the leading, and cheapest, developers of 5G technology. For some countries wanting to jump-start economies with fast wireless networks, siding with China may be the only option.

Such fragmentation may affect consumers. Ms. Fu points out that in a globalized economy, manufacturing takes place in the most efficient location.

A move to protectionism would prompt China and the United States to relocate production domestically, or at least to ally nations, which could drive up prices of devices. And the development and deployment of 5G in a fragmented environment could lack economies of scale afforded by globalism, Mr. Segal said. That could potentially delay its rollout and increase cost.

Welcome to tech’s Cold War.

Qualcomm’s court loss

Geopolitics isn’t the only force of change in the smartphone industry: So is the tech industry’s new obsession, antitrust.