When Gov. Kate Brown outlined her steps to fight Oregon’s coronavirus outbreak Thursday, Brown said she had two main goals: Protecting Oregonians’ health and protecting their jobs.

Her challenge is that those two goals may be mutually exclusive.

The governor’s order to restrict gatherings to no more than 250 people means many long-planned events are postponed indefinitely, from concerts and NBA games to business conferences and even weddings.

“Make no mistake, these efforts to fight coronavirus will have an impact on our daily lives, our livelihoods and Oregon’s economy,” Brown said. “It will be especially difficult for Oregonians without the means to miss work or self-quarantine if necessary. But these steps can save lives.”

Air travel through Portland was already down sharply before the governor acted and TriMet said Thursday its ridership is down, too. Both PDX and the transit agency expect the falloff to get steeper as events are canceled.

The governor’s order to close schools, issued late Thursday night, means working parents will be scrambling to care for their children and hold onto their jobs.

Meanwhile, many of the region’s largest businesses are asking their employees to work from home for the time being. And the fallout likely will continue for restaurants, bookstores – perhaps even the state’s factories.

“We’re going to have a recession. You just can’t have a shock of this magnitude without that impact,” said Matt Miller, interim CEO of the regional economic advocacy group Greater Portland Inc.

The depth and duration of that downturn depends, Miller said, on how effective Oregon’s collective response is to the outbreak. He said the state’s goal should be limiting the virus’ damage so that Oregon can capitalize on its geography, relatively low costs and skilled work force.

“The foundations of the place are still strong,” Miller said. “When we are able to come out of it we’ll still be a good place to be.”

One of the big issues in gauging the impact of COVID-19 is that neither economists nor epidemiologists have a clear picture of how the disease will progress or just how long it might take to contain. That makes it hard to know whether we’re looking at a disruption that might last for weeks, or months – or perhaps into next year.

“When you look at the economy you always look at the history, and we’ve never had a pandemic at this level,” said Peter Hulseman, senior economist at Portland State University’s Northwest Economic Research Center.

Conventional economic tools for goosing productivity and reviving commerce may do little to stem the effects of a viral outbreak. But Hulseman said he’s optimistic that the economic pain inflicted by limiting people from gathering, restricting travel and changing work patterns could have an immediate payoff if those measures do limit the spread and duration of the disease.

“That’s one of the reasons the government response is so important,” Hulseman said.

The outbreak is likely to touch every element of Oregon’s economy. Tourism and hospitality are already feeling the effects with the falloff in air travel and the shutdown of large events that draw people to Portland to see the Trail Blazers play, enjoy a concert downtown or attend a trade convention.

The Oregon Convention Center has close to two-dozen events scheduled over the next four weeks, the time during which the governor has banned large gatherings. Several of those have already been canceled -- many more will be, too.

Small businesses, which typically don’t have large financial reserves and often require their owners to be healthy and on the job every day, could be jeopardized by even a short disruption. Brown said Thursday she will convene a group of business leaders to explore options to help sustain small businesses.

And Oregon is a manufacturing-intensive state, from Intel’s semiconductor plants out the Sunset Highway to the forest products mills across rural Oregon. If workers can’t come in, or if the outbreak interrupts their supply chains locally or across the Pacific, that could shut down factory operations altogether.

The Oregonian Index of regional stocks is down more than 30% in the past month, evoking the Great Recession and reflecting investors’ growing pessimism about the economic outlook.

And yet no Oregon company has announced a coronavirus-related layoff yet and initial unemployment claims weren’t up last week, the first week after the coronavirus was identified in the state, according to the Oregon Employment Department.

While many offices have shuttered, factories are still open. Barge manufacturer Greenbrier and chipmaker Intel, for example, among others, continue operations and have given no indication they are rethinking that decision.

The state’s unemployment rate was at a record low, 3.3%, before the outbreak started. That could be an advantage for Oregon’s economy and the state’s workers. Given that tight labor market, companies may be reluctant to shed employees lest they struggle to find replacements whenever the recovery begins.

Another advantage: Oregon’s decade-long economic expansion enabled state government to build a robust rainy day fund that’s now approaching $3 billion, or 14% of the state’s general fund spending.

That could cushion the downturn’s blow, enabling government employment and services to remain relatively steady for a sustained period. Such a buffer could help steady Oregon’s economy and provide a foundation for recovery.

Hulseman, the Portland State economist, said he’s optimistic the coronavirus downturn won’t be nearly so bad as the Great Recession. Ratcheting back economic activity in the short term, he said, may be an effective way to constrain the coronavirus and could open the door to a quick turnaround.

If that happens, Hulseman said, Oregonians may not realize quite how close we came to the edge.

“The dream is we take these measures and we look back and we say, Why did we freak out so much?” he said. “I don’t know in a month, two months, if (the coronavirus) will be the top concern.”

-- Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | twitter: @rogoway | 503-294-7699

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