A decade into Arizona's affordable-housing crisis, state and local housing advocates see 2019 as a long-awaited chance to respond.

In the final days before the state Legislature returns to the Capitol, advocates are pointing to a spike in homelessness and a well-publicized murder — in which the suspect was a mentally ill man experiencing long-term homelessness — in an attempt to push housing toward the top of this year’s legislative priorities.

“The murder of my neighbor was a shocking thing,” said state Sen.-elect Lela Alston, a Democrat who lives down the street from where the murder occurred. “I think that raised awareness to a level that we’ve not seen in some time.”

In the months since that March murder, Alston and a small, bipartisan group of lawmakers have met with experts and agency leaders, asking about solutions to Arizona's affordable-housing crisis. Other legislators — notably, Rep. John Allen, R-Scottsdale, and Sen.-elect Heather Carter, R-Cave Creek — have studied housing programs and their hodgepodge funding. Advocates have hired lobbyists and planned their pitches.

The priority, as always, is more money.

“I do think that this year we have more people in leadership positions who are interested in doing something,” said Darlene Newsom, CEO of the non-profit UMOM New Day Centers. “So I’m very optimistic that this year, we could see some more funding in homelessness services in this state."

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Housing fund needs replenishing

It’s difficult to piece together exactly how much of Arizona’s $10 billion budget goes to homelessness services, but the state’s involvement is small. At least six agencies claim to operate some sort of homelessness program. Each attacks a separate part of the problem, from preventing evictions to housing former inmates to keeping homeless children in school.

Most estimates place the state budget's direct contribution to the fight against homelessness around $5 million.

About half — including $1 million from the Arizona Lottery — is directed to the Department of Economic Security. The rest goes into the Housing Trust Fund, where the Department of Housing decides how it’s spent.

The fund, which once collected more than $30 million, is the state's most versatile housing resource. The Department of Housing uses it to help renters avoid eviction, to repair rural homes and to build low-rent housing units.

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Before the Great Recession, the Housing Trust Fund collected 55 percent of revenue from state sales of unclaimed property. But in 2010, the Legislature capped those proceeds at $2.5 million each year, using the savings to cover financial gaps and focus on other priorities.

That left the state government with little way to prevent the housing shortage from burrowing into every county and setting off a statewide burst of homelessness. Arizona is now among the most difficult states in America to be poor and need somewhere to live, and last year the state found a 10.3 percent increase in its one-night count of people experiencing homelessness.

Alston has made repeated attempts to restore that full funding stream. All have failed.

But this year appears ripe for funding. Arizona could have a budget surplus of up to $900 million, though Gov. Doug Ducey said in his inauguration address that the state would not go on a "spending spree."

Still, Alston — or a legislative ally — will try again.

"Fixing something to do with the Housing Trust Fund is not impossible," said Sen. Juan Mendez, D-Tempe.

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A funding request free-for-all

If state housing advocates wrote a joint wish list, a restored Housing Trust Fund would sit at the top. It might also include a state housing tax credit, which policymakers have explored as a way to incentivize the construction of affordable housing.

After that, it's a funding free-for-all.

No one organization can wrap itself around all of Arizona’s homeless population. So the state’s system is splintered, divided by geography and the specific populations served. Some shelters, for example, accept only homeless families. Others serve only children, or domestic-violence victims, or people leaving the justice system.

Arizona’s short supply of money may force them to compete against each other, fighting for slices of a tiny pie.

“Each of us, because of our experience, have our favorites, who have legitimate needs,” Alston said. “If they were to come together as one, then those voices could help push the urgency and the need for the entire package.”

But with just days before the session begins, that unified approach has yet to emerge. Even a full restoration of the Housing Trust Fund, which could be used for almost any affordable housing-related program, would leave tension between competing priorities.

Leading housing advocates met late last year to discuss 2019 funding and legislative priorities, but did not reach a consensus.

The choir of competing voices has reached the Capitol, where lawmakers have fielded requests that simply can’t coexist. For example: A push to increase funding for homeless families, like the one UMOM is expected to make, could claim the money other groups are targeting for youth and domestic violence-related programs.

That’s left pro-housing lawmakers stuck somewhere in between.

“I can’t do one thing to fix it for all these different areas,” Mendez said. “I can’t decide. I introduce everything.”

Hanging over everything is the governor's uncertain position. Ducey recently called together a group of lawmakers, agency heads and service providers to discuss homelessness, but advocates are hoping for more. They've circled Ducey's upcoming State of the State address, scheduled for Jan. 15, as an inflection point: Even a single mention of housing and homelessness might open the funding floodgates.

The governor's office would not say whether Ducey plans to address the issue next week. In an email, Ducey spokesman Patrick Ptak wrote two words: "Stay tuned!"

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