NATO ON THE DEFENSIVE: When NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addressed a joint meeting of Congress yesterday morning to mark the anniversary of the alliance’s founding in Washington on this date in 1949, instead of the standard platitudes, he had to address the elephant in the House chamber: NATO, at 70, is under strain.

“We have to be frank. Questions are being asked on both sides of the Atlantic about the strength of our partnership. And yes, there are differences,” Stolenberg said, while attempting to add some historical perspective to what he called “serious issues and serious disagreements.” NATO’s seen this movie before: the Suez Crisis in 1956, the French withdrawal from military cooperation in NATO in 1966, and the Iraq war in 2003.

“The strength of NATO is that despite our differences, we have always been able to unite around our core task: to defend each other,” he said, reminding those who needed reminding that NATO was founded on a iron-clad commitment to a solemn promise: “One for all and all for one.”

GENTLY CHIDING TRUMP: At the White House Tuesday, when President Trump complained the United States was paying more than its fair share for NATO, “which basically is protecting Europe,” Stoltenberg sat politely next to him, not disputing anything — even when Trump vastly inflated by $140 billion the amount of increased defense spending expected from NATO nations by the end of next year.

But in his speech yesterday, Stoltenberg attacked head on the notion that NATO is like a security business in which member nations simply pay for the protection of the mighty U.S. military. Yes, he said, NATO has been good for Europe, and the commitment of America has kept it peaceful and prosperous, but he argued NATO has been good for America, too .

“The strength of a nation is not only measured by the size of its economy or the number of its soldiers, but also by the number of its friends. And through NATO, the United States has more friends and allies than any other power. This has made the United States stronger, safer, and more secure,” Stoltenberg said. And turning to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Mike Pence, he added, “It’s good to have friends.”

TURKEY IN DENIAL: One of the most visible cracks in the 29-nation alliance is the increasingly frayed relationship between the United States and Turkey, which against every signal sent by Washington seems to believe it can buy Russian air defenses and American F-35s, even as the Pentagon this week blocked all further F-35 technology transfers and threatened to boot Turkey out of the international program in which eight countries build parts for the Lockheed Martin jet.

At a conference coinciding with the NATO anniversary meeting, it fell to Vice President Pence to try to remove any ambiguity in the U.S. position that F-35s cannot be operated alongside the Russian system that’s trying to figure out how to shoot them down. “The fact that Turkey is moving ahead with these plans even after the United States has made available the Patriot air defense system is deeply troubling,” Pence said at an Atlantic Council event dubbed “ NATO Engages .”

“Turkey must choose: Does it want to remain a critical partner in the most successful military alliance in the history of the world? Or does it want to risk the security of that partnership by making reckless decisions that undermine our alliance?” Pence said.

GERMANY IN CROSSHAIRS: Then there’s Germany, which has drawn fire from President Trump for drawing up a five-year spending plan that would keep German defense spending at well below the 2 percent of GDP goal all NATO nations pledged to meet by 2024. “After great prodding, it agreed to spend only 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense by 2024. The draft budget for 2019 just presented to the German parliament actually falls short of even that commitment, promising only 1.3 percent. Germany must do more,” said Pence, who also criticized an agreement Germany has with Russia for a natural gas pipeline.

“It is simply unacceptable for Europe’s largest economy to continue to ignore the threat of Russian aggression and neglect its own self-defense and our common defense at such a level,” Pence said. “NATO is a mutual defense pact, not a unilateral security guarantee.”

ITALY SEDUCED BY CHINA’S ‘GAME OF LOANS’: Speaking of NATO nations cozying up to America’s adversaries, Italy last month said it would sign up for China’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” in which China builds needed infrastructure projects to extend its economic influence. The program has been derided as “debt trap diplomacy” because, like with a loan shark, the initially favorable terms can end up making the target country beholden to Beijing.

“It concerns me, and I think we have to remain vigilant,” said Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters at his Senate confirmation hearing this week to be the new supreme NATO commander. “China does not embrace the same Western democratic values that we do in the United States or that we do in NATO, so we must remain concerned.”

Wolters noted that China is now investing heavily in Europe, importing goods from Sweden and Iceland, and has discussed with Denmark plans to build airstrips in Greenland. “Those give us great pause,” he said.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance ( @kjtorrance ). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense .

HAPPENING TODAY: NATO foreign ministers get down to work at the State Department. Last night at the nearby Mellon Auditorium, where NATO’s founding document was signed, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo welcomed the group. “To my right, if you look in the glass case, you will see the original NATO treaty,” he noted. “When the treaty was signed on April 4th in 1949, in this very room, President Harry S. Truman spoke of our collective aspirations. He called NATO, quote, “a shield against aggression” and “a bulwark which will permit us to get on with the real business of government and society — the business of achieving a fuller and happier life for every one of our citizens.”

TODAY’S ANTI-NATO PROTESTS: The group WorldBeyondWar.org says that speakers and musicians advocating “a more peaceful foreign policy” will greet ministers as they arrive at the State Department, beginning at 8 a.m. Then the demonstrators plan to walk over to the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial for a 10 a.m. rally.

WHAT’S THEIR BEEF?: The protesters argue that NATO, the world’s largest military alliance, while claiming to “preserve peace” has violated international law and bombed Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Libya. “NATO has exacerbated tensions with Russia and increased the risk of nuclear apocalypse. The notion that supporting NATO is a way to cooperate with the world ignores superior non-deadly ways to cooperate with the world.”

SEN. GRAHAM KNOWS BETTER: Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., in a statement applauding Stoltenberg’s congressional address, described the increased defense spending by NATO nations as “contributions” to the alliance. It is an inaccurate description that feeds into President Trump’s narrative that member countries are somehow in arrears in their dues and owe NATO more money.

“NATO nations are increasing their contributions to NATO at the largest rate in history,” Graham said. “In the next two years, an extra $100 billion will have been contributed by NATO nations.”

While NATO members do contribute, according to a formula, to the operational expenses of the headquarters in Brussels and various administrative costs, the extra $100 billion is money the member nations are spending on their own militaries, which in turn makes them more able to contribute troops and capabilities to the alliance.

If every extra dollar spent on defense were in fact a contribution to NATO, you could argue the $16 billion U.S. increase in defense spending this year is a contribution to NATO, which it is not. It’s not just a nuance. It affects how the dispute over NATO funding is understood. And Sen. Graham surely understands that.

IRAN’S DEADLY TOLL: Formerly classified numbers reveal that the U.S. military believes Iran helped kill 608 U.S. troops during the Iraq war between 2003 and 2011.

“This accounts for 17 percent of all deaths of U.S. personnel in Iraq from 2003 to 2011. This death toll is in addition to the many thousands of Iraqis killed by the IRGC’s proxies,” U.S. special representative for Iran Brian Hook said at Tuesday’s State Department briefing.

It’s long been known that Iran played a role in the insurgency that claimed the lives of hundreds of American troops.

At his Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing in 2015, Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford, now chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, testified that as many as 500 troops were killed by “Iranian activities.”

"We were not always able to attribute the casualties that we had to Iranian activity, although many times we suspected it was Iranian activity, even though we did not necessarily have the forensics to support that,” Dunford said.

DEBUNKING IRAN’S NUCLEAR CLAIM: A new report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Institute for Science and International Security buttresses the case for disbelieving Iran’s claim that its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes.

“Iran had begun the process of establishing an underground nuclear test site and developing the necessary methods to estimate nuclear explosive yield in the early 2000s,” dubbing the effort “Project Midan,” according to the report by Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency; David Albright, physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security; institute senior policy analyst Andrea Stricker; institute research associate Sarah Burkhard; and Frank Pabian, who was the IAEA’s nuclear chief inspector in Iraq.

The new report comes after new questions about Iran’s nuclear program were raised by Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who is speaking at a CSIS event Friday .

AFGHANISTAN’S WILD CARD: The Institute for the Study of War warns Afghanistan faces an impending constitutional crisis that could destabilize the country unless there is significant diplomatic engagement by the United States.

Noting that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s legal term expires on May 22, but Afghanistan will not hold new presidential elections until at least Sept. 28, ISW's Scott DesMarais writes:

“Powerful opposition leaders are demanding a transitional government to bridge the gap until elections but have no agreed-upon plan for governance. A destabilizing competition amongst powerbrokers would derail U.S. efforts to facilitate reconciliation with the Taliban and could trigger state collapse in Afghanistan.”

ISIS’s THREAT FROM THE GRAVE: The Middle East Media Research Institute’s Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor , which scrutinizes Islamist terrorism and violent extremism worldwide, notes that since the fall of Baghouz, the last ISIS stronghold in Syria, the group has come out with new propaganda posters and videos.

In one video, a fighter named as Abu Al-Harith Al-Ansari mocks the U.S. claim that it has defeated ISIS and urges Muslims to carry out attacks in the West.

One poster shows an ISIS fighter holding the organization's black banner, standing in front of images of President Trump and former president Barack Obama dressed in orange jumpsuits, along with a quote from Ansari. “We say [to] America, do you think that by replacing the black dog with the red dog and putting it in the White House, you will be able to [eliminate] the Islamic State?"

RETHINKING CHINA: The Center for American Progress is advocating a new strategy it argues will better position the United States to succeed in the growing competition with China, by leveraging the U.S. advantage in people, democratic values, and allies and partners.

“ Limit, Leverage, and Compete: A New Strategy on China ” will put the United States in a stronger position, argues Melanie Hart, a senior fellow specializing in China and co-author of the report, and “provide ample off-ramps to adjust if China changes its path to one that allows for more collaboration.”

“So far, the Trump administration has pursued a course that weakens and isolates the United States and makes the problem worse,” the report says. “If the United States stays the current course, China will dominate key global markets and technologies and use its growing economic footprint to exert diplomatic and military influence in ways that undermine U.S. national security and erode democratic values.”

SPACE LAUNCH: The Air Force will launch three experimental research and development satellites this April from Mahia, New Zealand, using Rocket Lab USA’s Electron rocket to fly the Pentagon’s R&D spacecraft to low-Earth orbit.

“The upcoming Rocket Lab USA launch is one of several planned launches in 2019 that will demonstrate the ability of the emerging launch industry to provide responsive, affordable space access for the U.S. Air Force and DoD,” said an Air Force statement.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Jared Kushner was White House official whose security clearance was denied

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Military Refocuses On Pacific To Counter Chinese Ambitions

Stars and Stripes: Freedom-Of-Navigation Ops Will Not Dent Beijing’s South China Sea Claims, Experts Say

Foreign Policy: Shanahan’s Bid for Top Pentagon Job on Hold

Bloomberg: Lockheed's $31 Billion Marine Helicopters Are Running 19 Months Late

The Times of Israel: Britain, France, Germany seek UN report on Iran missile development

Fifth Domain: The Army is willing to spend big to support the cyber mission

Defense News: The U.S. Navy, Seeking Savings, Shakes Up Its Plans For More Lethal Attack Submarines

USNI News: Pentagon Developing Low-Yield Nuclear Cruise Missiles For Submarines

Reuters: U.S. Hopes For Second Aircraft Carrier Visit To Vietnam This Year: Official

Task & Purpose: The patriarchy loses again: Female sailors are finally allowed to wear flats

Calendar

THURSDAY | APRIL 4

8 a.m. 1030 15th Street, N.W. The Atlantic Council’s “Conversation on Water Security in Asia and the Implications for the Continent’s Peace and Security,” featuring remarks by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I. Open to the public and press. Register at www.atlanticcouncil.org .

9:30 a.m. SD-G50 Dirksen. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on posture of the Department of the Air Force. Witnesses: Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee. Witnesses: Vice Adm. Mat Winter, F-35 Program Executive Officer; Rear Adm. Scott Conn, office of the chief of naval operations; Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, deputy Marine Corps commandant for aviation; Lt. Gen. David Berger, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; Daniel Nega, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition - air; and Jimmy Smith, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition - expeditionary programs and logistics management. armedservices.house.gov

10:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing on “Mismanaged Military Family Housing Programs.” Witnesses: Thomas Modly, under secretary of the Navy; Robert McMahon, assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; John Henderson, assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations, environment, and energy; and Alex Beehler, assistant secretary of the Army for installations, energy, and environment. armedservices.house.gov

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Hudson Institute event: “Making Military Cloud a Success: Critical Next Steps for DoD’s IT Strategy.” Speakers: Fred Schneider, professor, Cornell University, and founding chairman, National Academies Forum on Cyber Resilience; William Schneider, senior fellow, Hudson Institute; and Arthur Herman, senior fellow and director, Quantum Alliance Initiative, Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events

TUESDAY | APRIL 9

9 a.m. 1152 15th Street N.W. Center for a New American Security briefing on “NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting and 70th Anniversary of the Alliance.” www.cnas.org/events

11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. Hudson Institute event: “Risks and Opportunities of Emerging Technologies: A Conversation with Congressman Mike McCaul,” ranking Republican, House Foreign Affairs Committee. www.hudson.org .

TBA: President Trump welcomes Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sissi to the White House.

THURSDAY | APRIL 11

9:00 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments releases a report, “An Air Force for an Era of Great Power Competition,” which recommends creating a future aircraft inventory that would be more lethal and better able to operate in future contested and highly contested environments compared with today's force. Experts include: Mark Gunzinger, Carl Rehberg, Jacob Cohn, Timothy Walton, Lukas Autenried. Register at www.csbaonline.org .

10:30 a.m. United States Naval Academy. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., delivers keynote address at a “National Discussion on Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment at America's Colleges, Universities, and Service Academies.” Hosted by the secretaries of the Navy, Army, and Air Force. www.usna.edu