For many years, independence in Catalonia has been portrayed as a happy, low-cost and easy path to a better world. People believed in the promised land of a richer, freer state that would enjoy Scandinavian-style welfare and be admired around the world: like a Denmark of the south, as the former regional president, Artur Mas, used to say.

Much as for the Brexiteers, and for Trump supporters who believed in their leader’s promises, the reality is proving just how illusory that idea was. In Catalonia, as events unfold rapidly, people are starting to realise that the road to independence is rockier than anybody knew and that, at the end of the day, it might turn out to be simply impassable.

The populist component of the pro-independence camp is becoming more and more obvious. Populism proposes simple solutions (in this case, independence) to complex problems (power-sharing in an unevenly decentralised state in times of crisis). Pro-independence leaders create narratives based on historical grievances, and seem trapped in denial of reality. This reality includes strong opposition from the Spanish authorities, banks and corporations, which are moving in a cascade to safer places in Spain, a Catalan population fractured and divided, and nonexistent support from Europe and the international community.

But now it has become apparent that the “suspended declaration” of the Catalan republic at the regional parliament on 10 October was a mistake. This week’s exchange of letters between the Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, and Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has proved to be sterile, if not surreal, and we are entering uncharted waters. On the one hand, there is the prospect of a vote in parliament for a “unilateral declaration of independence”; on the other is the menace of triggering article 155 of the constitution, which means taking back the region’s devolved powers.

The feeling in Barcelona is that the harm has already been done, and that things will get worse before they get better. The chain of errors on both sides has proved so toxic that people in the city are starting to feel the consequences in their daily lives. The emotional part of the current conflict overwhelms any rational discussion.

For a city like ours – which used to have a joyful, easygoing, tourist-friendly atmosphere – the sight of anxiety on the streets, of repeated massive peaceful demonstrations turned into angry protests, and of police helicopters constantly flying over our heads, may prove too much. Only two months after the devastating terrorist attack on the jolly Ramblas, when a van ploughed into a crowd, killing 16 and injuring 100, it seems like even the Sagrada Familia has lost its power to charm.

‘Jailing two prominent activists has just given the pro-independence movement more ammunition – and “political prisoners” to fight for.’ Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP

The general feeling among Spaniards and Catalans alike is that they don’t deserve all this. They were just about to come out of the deepest recession in a generation, one that had caused a major social and political crisis. The country’s GDP has been growing solidly over the past two years, and some of that growth was finally filtering down to the regular shopper. But now we have to deal with a monumental constitutional crisis. Now, how irresponsible is that?

Politicians are there to solve old problems, not to create new ones. Inaction on the side of the Spanish government (concerned only with making sure the economy picks up, and with its own political survival) and a ramping up on the side of the Catalan administration (focused only on delivering their particular road map to improbable independence) have left the country in tatters.

Over the next few days, the major challenge will be how to deal with the “permanent mobilisation” set in motion by diehard nationalists and a Catalan government hijacked by the anti-system, anarchist-inspired CUP party, which wants to defend the newly born republic on the streets. And the biggest challenge of all will be how to prevent this situation from bursting into violence.

Pro-independence activists are proud of their capacity to bring hundreds of thousands on to the streets simply by sending a couple of tweets and instructions through WhatsApp groups. Their latest achievement was Tuesday’s protest at the detention and imprisonment of the leaders of the two major pro-independence organisations, disproportionately accused of sedition.

Again, using the judicial instruments to deal with this political problem has proved foolish, and jailing these two prominent activists gives the pro-independence movement more ammunition, fuelling its anger and haste to leave. After all, it now has “political prisoners” to fight for. After the use of violence by riot police trying to prevent the referendum from happening (overblown by some media, as Peter Preston pointed out in this newspaper), these detentions are yet another huge miscalculation by the administration.

A strategy of copying a Ukraine-style Maidan protest has been on the agenda for months, and there is already some talk of the “Ulsterisation” of the conflict. A manipulative video entitled “Help Catalonia”, similar to one released during Kiev’s Maidan square crisis, is the last example of the wish to escalate and internationalise the conflict.

Dealing with a major crisis always requires buying time. The gesture of a last-minute meeting between Spanish and Catalan government officials to agree on freezing both the declaration of independence and the triggering of article 155 would contribute to the de-escalation of a clash that risks ruining long-term Spanish efforts to build a free and open society – a reality that, not long ago, seemed so successful.

• Francesc Badia i Dalmases is the editor of DemocraciaAbierta, an international affairs expert, author and political analyst. His most recent book is Order and Disorder in the 21st Century