In his latest speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah again boasted that his terror group can easily penetrate into Israeli territory from Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s cross-border tunnel network may have been destroyed, but even in its absence Nasrallah insists that his commandos will try to storm Israel in secret and raid communities and army bases in the north. While Hezbollah knows it would pay a heavy price for such a step, the propaganda achievement would be crucial.

Like a broken record, in every speech Nasrallah delivers he threatens a military operation in Israeli territory if a war breaks out. Sometimes he calls it “conquering the Galilee,” sometimes just “penetrating.” Last month that ritual repeated itself when Nasrallah told his supporters that Hezbollah has the ability to “easily penetrate the Galilee.”

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The question now is how, now that the Israeli military has revealed and destroyed Hezbollah’s secret strategic weapon — the cross-border tunnels — the Lebanese organization plans to operate inside Israeli territory and take control of a town or a piece of land.

Perhaps Hezbollah doesn’t have another strategic weapon like the tunnels, but it can be assumed it still has an extremely ambitious and detailed plan to occupy communities and military posts on Israel’s northern border.

The tunnel project was meant to shock Israel, funneling hundreds of members of the terror group’s Radwan commando unit into the country to carry out various attacks.

“Radwan” was the alias of Imad Mughniya, Hezbollah’s military chief who was assassinated by Israel in 2008. Members of that unit are given high priority in almost everything: budget, equipment, resources and logistics. Sometimes their activities resemble those of elite IDF units, such as combat soldiers trained to use ATVs or navy commando fighters supposed to sneak into Israel in small underwater vessels.

In the absence of the tunnels, the mission of Radwan members will likely be to covertly get thousands of fighters into Israel at once through several points on the border while bombarding the border region, hoping that will overwhelm the IDF and allow some of the fighters to reach an Israeli border community or army post.

Hezbollah’s hope at the moment is that a heavy artillery bombardment of the entire border area, plus the use of high-caliber rockets that can destroy targets such as military posts, will do the trick.

The group today possesses significant firepower that could theoretically wipe out the entire Israeli frontline upon command — every post, every antenna.

Apart from the artillery meant to serve as cover for thousands of troops invading Israel, Hezbollah’s attack plan will likely involve a logistic and intelligence apparatus, including drones that would transmit real-time intelligence and could carry out “kamikaze” bombings of Israeli targets.

It also has a designated command center meant to direct a wide-ranging operation along the border.

A land barrier built by Israel in recent years will make it difficult for such an operation to be carried out, but Hezbollah decision-makers nevertheless think that at least some of the attackers will manage to penetrate into Israeli territory.

It is clear to the leaders of Hezbollah’s military wing that such an operation would have harsh consequences for its personnel, but they consider the ensuing psychological effect in Israel as critical. The operation is supposed to force the IDF to invest in defense, shock Israeli public opinion and create pressure to quickly end the fighting. One can only guess the sort of effect images of Hezbollah fighters in the northern Israeli town of Metulla could have.

But Hezbollah’s highly ambitious war plan is exceptionally risky for the organization itself, and its leaders are aware of that. Sending or trying to send thousands of its best warriors across the border might ultimately prove too dangerous a gamble. It would, after all, present an excellent opportunity for the IDF to eliminate the elite fighting force of Hezbollah in a matter of hours. That, in turn, would expose Hezballah‘s home front to counterattacks and ease the IDF’s path to a clear victory in a future war.