5 things to watch as Alabama casts votes in Senate primary

Brian Lyman | Montgomery Advertiser

Show Caption Hide Caption Trump endorses Luther Strange in Alabama's GOP Senate primary President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed Alabama Sen. Luther Strange as Strange goes into a contentious GOP primary election next week.

Months of campaigning come to an end Tuesday in Alabama — but it could be the curtain raiser for four more months of ads, attacks and debates.

Voters will go to the polls to select Democratic and Republican nominees for Attorney General Jeff Sessions' former Senate seat.

If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, runoffs will take place on Sept. 26, with the general election for the seat following on Dec. 12. A law passed by the Alabama Legislature this spring forbids crossover voting in runoffs; a person who casts a ballot in the Republican primary, for example, may only vote in any Republican runoff elections, not Democratic ones.

Most of the attention in the race has been on the Republican side. Sen. Luther Strange is fighting former Alabama chief justice Roy Moore and Rep. Mo Brooks for a slot in the runoff. On the Democratic side, the leading contenders appear to be former U.S. attorney Doug Jones and business executive Robert Kennedy Jr.

But in a primary where turnout is forecast at 20% to 25%, predictions are unwise and questions are numerous. Here are five.

1. How much will Republican voters care about President Trump’s blessing?

Strange hopes the answer is “a lot.” The senator refused every opportunity to break with or criticize the president, even when Trump launched attacks against Sessions, Strange’s predecessor in the seat. The senator has spent more than $2.2 million on ads showing worshipful devotion to the president, and he won Trump’s endorsement and phone calls for his campaign.

But in a primary where 62% of likely voters strongly approve of the president, no candidate breaks with Trump. Still, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a political action committee aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has launched ads attacking Brooks over criticism of Trump’s presidential campaign last year, and tried to link the congressman, part of the Tea Party vanguard of 2010, to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

2. Will Robert Bentley’s appointment of Strange weigh on voters’ minds?

Strange, then Alabama attorney general, interviewed with then-governor Robert Bentley last December for Sessions’ Senate seat. Bentley — who was under investigation by the attorney general’s office at the time — appointed Strange in February. Bentley pleaded guilty to two misdemeanor campaign finance charges in April and resigned from office. It is not clear what role if any Strange had in the Bentley probe, and Strange himself has not made it clear, saying only that he believed he could serve Trump better with the appointment.

Strange’s opponents have, surprisingly, said little about the issue. Moore’s ads tend to focus on his own résumé, while Brooks has used his TV time (for the most part) to fend off Strange and SLF’s charges of disloyalty to Trump. But both candidates revived the issue last week after the president tweeted his endorsement.

3. Are Republican voters angry at McConnell?

That’s the bet Moore and Brooks have made as Trump embraces the Strange campaign. The Republican Party’s long-sought repeal of the Affordable Care Act failed last month. Moore and Brooks — carefully avoiding criticisms of Trump’s missteps on the bill — hammered the Senate majority leader over the failure of the repeal legislation. In ads, Brooks said McConnell and Strange “failed"; Moore said McConnell “lied.”

The strategy reflects McConnell’s poor approval ratings — just 40% of Republicans say he’s doing his job well — and allows the candidates to fight back against the SLF attacks. If it proves successful for one candidate or the other, it might provide a template for insurgent campaigns in Republican primaries next year.

4. Will endorsements carry Jones?

The former U.S. attorney may give the Democrats their best shot (and it’s still a long shot) at winning the first U.S. Senate election in Alabama since 1992. Jones has gotten the backing of former vice president Joe Biden; Rep. Terri Sewell, D-Ala., and Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., a veteran of the civil rights movement. Jones also picked up a key endorsement from the Alabama Democratic Conference, which could mount a get-out-the-vote effort for him.

But the state of the Democratic field is uncertain. The Secretary of State’s office estimates just 200,000 voters will take part in the party primary, and a low-turnout race could create any number of results. Kennedy, a political newcomer who shares the name of a Democratic icon, led some polls, and in a low visibility race, it’s unclear where state Democrats may go.

5. Are there other candidates to watch?

State Sen. Trip Pittman is in fourth place in polls of the Republican side and seems unlikely to make a runoff later this year. But his performance in Baldwin County — a bastion for Republicans — could draw votes from the leading three candidates and possibly affect Strange's or Brooks’ chances of getting into the runoff. Brooks spent Friday campaigning in Baldwin and suggested Pittman voters “coalesce” around Brooks to keep Strange out of the runoff, which Pittman’s campaign rejected.