iPolitics/ Matthew Usherwood

If the political landscape doesn’t change in the new year, Conservative turned Independent MP Brent Rathgeber suggests the prime minister might face the loss of more disgruntled MPs.

Rathgeber, who stunned the government by quitting the Conservative caucus in the spring, says he wouldn’t be surprised to see several backbenchers announce their intent to leave politics.

“People will decide they have done a calculation that they might not get elected under this party, under this leader, and it might just be a good time to change careers or go into retirement,” he told iPolitics in a year-end interview.

The Conservatives have plummeted in the polls this year, dropping to around 30 per cent or to their core base of support. Voter support has also declined in ridings that were once considered safe seats, especially out West. In the last round of byelections, Conservatives struggled to hold off the Liberals in two Manitoba ridings, their share of the vote reduced by 20 percentage points in one riding.

The Senate scandal that has plagued the government for nearly a year has also affected Harper’s credibility and, some argue, has changed the mood within the Conservative caucus. Although MPs are “under inordinate pressure” to support the government and support the prime minister, Rathgeber says it doesn’t seem to be working.

“I don’t see the enthusiasm — the fake clapping and standing ovations,” says Rathgeber.

Unless Harper and the Conservatives find a way to regain support, Rathgeber thinks the new year will bring a show of independence from some Conservative MPs.

“Once you have decided you aren’t running again…that takes away any real necessity to be a loyalist because you aren’t running again,” he says.

The centralization of power in the PMO, says Rathgeber, has become self-defeating.

“Conservatives all across the country have a wisdom and common sense that is conspicuously absent from Langevin Block, where people are consumed by their own importance… in their ability to solve problems and make problems go away, but they often make much bigger ones in the process,” he says.

Leaving the tightly-controlled Conservative caucus has been “liberating,” says Rathgeber, who now sits as one of two Independents in the House of Commons. He says he no longer has to worry about receiving harassing emails or phone calls from staffers in the PMO if he writes a blog or tweet the office doesn’t like.

“They are all about messaging and when you stray from messaging, it better be benign or you are going to hear about it,” he says. “If it’s not benign, they are going to try and remedy it,” he says about the PMO’s repeated attempts to have him remove a blog post or tweet.

He also doesn’t have colleagues telling him to be careful about what he says.

“I was always suspicious as to whether my colleagues were telling me to mind my Ps and Qs because they were concerned about me, or because they were sent there to deliver a message on behalf of the PMO,” he says.

Since Rathgeber left, former cabinet minister Michael Chong tabled a bill that would essentially reform Parliament as we know it. The Reform Act seeks to take power away from political leaders and empower party caucuses and individual MPs. Although many pundits and parliamentarians are skeptical the bill will pass when it comes to a vote in a few months time, Rathgeber believes it is a good step for democratic reform.

But Rathgeber is doubtful the bill will pass, instead saying it is up to parliamentarians to stand up against the creeping of control to Langevin Block. For reform to happen, Rathgeber says Conservative MPs need to “show some backbone” and “empower themselves.” Conservatives, Rathgeber says, should stop allowing the PMO to plant member’s statements to attack the opposition.

“It’s a voluntary surrender of power for slots that are reserved for government members to be surrendered to PMO attack ads in the guise of an SO31,” he said.

“The problem is that for every one that won’t there are two who will,” he adds.

Today, Rathgeber says backbenchers have become part of the “PMO communications spin machine.” And that’s one reason Rathgeber left the Conservative caucus, a move he says has made him happier.

The decision, however, will make it more challenging to get re-elected. Unlike his Conservative opponent, the St. Albert MP will be unable to raise any money, offer any receipts or spend a dollar until the next federal general election is called. He also won’t be able to afford advertisements in the major Edmonton newspapers. The campaign, Rathgeber admits, will be a back to basic campaign consisting of door-to-door visits, advertisements in the local papers and appearances on local radio stations.

“I’m still a conservatives; I’m still a conservative thinking guy… The issue becomes do you want an independent conservative who will represent you in Ottawa and will vote for initiatives that in my judgement will benefit you… or a Conservative who will vote along party lines.”