After the projections for most of the week was below-zero weather, the latest reports indicates that by kickoff, the temperature in Green Bay should be in the single digits. The temperature of a game is more open to interpretation than you think: in a lot of the games below, there are different reports depending on which source you use. That said, I’ve found six playoff games that had a temperature of zero degrees or colder:

A pair of playoff games in Lambeau Field in 1996 and Soldier Field in 1963 probably could have been sub-zero games, but noon-time starts kept the temperature on the positive side of the ledger. Ten years ago, the Titans game in New England got the Saturday Night treatment, which allowed the temperature to drop down to 4 degrees with a wind chill -14. And the Browns/Raiders game known simply as Red Right 88 was at 2 degrees with a wind chill of -20.

It looks like today’s game will join the list of freezing playoff games, but may not make the top five.

San Francisco’s Turnover Margin

I think the 49ers are the vastly superior team here, so my pregame analysis will be limited. The Packers are a very average team, and a healthy Aaron Rodgers only makes them above-average. San Francisco led the league in points differential through two quarters and through three quarters, and I can still see this team becoming the next Lombardi Packers. But here’s an interesting stat from Bill Barnwell:

The 49ers are now 38-4-1 under Harbaugh when they win or tie the turnover battle and 1-9 when they lose it. Everyone does better when they win the turnover battle, but Harbaugh’s 49ers are an extreme case.

That made me wonder: Are the 49ers an extreme case? As it turns out, the answer is yes.

Here’s how to read the table below. In games where the 49ers won the turnover battle, they are 30-3-1. In games where they were even in turnovers, San Francisco was 8-1, and when the team lost the battle, they were 1-9. That gives them an .897 winning percentages when the 49ers win the turnover battle, a .889 winning percentage in neutral games, and a miserable 0.100 win percentage when they have more giveaways than takeaways. San Francisco’s .897 winning percentage in positive turnover games is the 6th best rate in the league. And the 49ers .889 winning percentage in even games is the 2nd best in the league, while the 49ers are tied for 29th in winning percentage in games where they lose the turnover battle. The table is sorted by the difference between each team’s rank in winning percentages when winning the turnover battle and when losing it. As you can see, San Francisco ranks #2.

Team + TO Even - TO + TO% Even% - TO% Rk +TO Rk Even Rk -TO Diff New York Jets 12-1 7-1 3-24 0.923 0.875 0.111 3 3.5 27 24 San Francisco 49ers 30-3-1 8-1 1-9 0.897 0.889 0.1 6 2 29.5 23.5 Miami Dolphins 11-2 8-7 2-18 0.846 0.533 0.1 12 13 29.5 17.5 Tennessee Titans 14-2 6-8 2-16 0.875 0.429 0.111 10 20 27 17 New York Giants 23-3 4-5 2-15 0.885 0.444 0.118 8 19 23.5 15.5 Philadelphia Eagles 13-1 3-6 6-19 0.929 0.333 0.24 2 25.5 12 10 Green Bay Packers 23-1-1 9-5 3-9 0.94 0.643 0.25 1 8 10.5 9.5 Buffalo Bills 14-6 3-3 1-21 0.7 0.5 0.045 26 16 31 5 Carolina Panthers 18-4 5-7 2-12 0.818 0.417 0.143 15.5 21.5 20 4.5 Indianapolis Colts 14-3 6-4 4-18 0.824 0.6 0.182 14 9.5 17 3 Atlanta Falcons 16-3 8-4 4-16 0.842 0.667 0.2 13 7 15 2 Kansas City Chiefs 13-4 5-9 2-15 0.765 0.357 0.118 22.5 24 23.5 1 Jacksonville Jaguars 10-8 1-10 0-19 0.556 0.091 0 31.5 31 32 0.5 San Diego Chargers 15-2 3-7 6-15 0.882 0.3 0.286 9 27.5 8.5 -0.5 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1 9-6 9-14 0.909 0.6 0.391 4 9.5 3 -1 St. Louis Rams 11-5 3-7 2-19-1 0.688 0.3 0.114 27 27.5 25 -2 New Orleans Saints 16-2 8-3 8-13 0.889 0.727 0.381 7 5 4 -3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-7 3-10 2-16 0.588 0.231 0.111 30 30 27 -3 New England Patriots 28-3 5-4 7-6 0.903 0.556 0.538 5 11 1 -4 Houston Texans 16-4 5-5 5-17 0.8 0.5 0.227 17.5 16 13 -4.5 Seattle Seahawks 24-4 5-7 3-7 0.857 0.417 0.3 11 21.5 6 -5 Chicago Bears 18-4 4-6 4-12 0.818 0.4 0.25 15.5 23 10.5 -5 Minnesota Vikings 11-7 5-5 2-18-1 0.611 0.5 0.119 28 16 22 -6 Washington Redskins 12-5 3-9 3-17 0.706 0.25 0.15 25 29 18.5 -6.5 Detroit Lions 14-5 3-6 4-17 0.737 0.333 0.19 24 25.5 16 -8 Oakland Raiders 9-6 4-4 3-22 0.6 0.5 0.12 29 16 21 -8 Dallas Cowboys 13-4 7-6 4-14 0.765 0.538 0.222 22.5 12 14 -8.5 Cincinnati Bengals 15-4 10-4 5-12 0.789 0.714 0.294 19 6 7 -12 Arizona Cardinals 10-3 7-7 6-15 0.769 0.5 0.286 21 16 8.5 -12.5 Cleveland Browns 10-8 0-10 3-17 0.556 0 0.15 31.5 32 18.5 -13 Baltimore Ravens 21-6 7-1 7-12 0.778 0.875 0.368 20 3.5 5 -15 Denver Broncos 12-3 14-1 9-12 0.8 0.933 0.429 17.5 1 2 -15.5

In the least surprising result I’ve ever found, the Jets had more games where they lost the turnover battle and the game than any other team over the last three years.

San Francisco Passing

The 49ers don’t pass often, and as a result, the team ranks just 30th in passing yards. But Colin Kaepernick ranked 8th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt this season, and that was without Michael Crabtree for most of the year. Vernon Davis has been a playoff superstar in recent years, but the real story of the 49ers is the marvelous season Anquan Boldin produced. Only three receivers this year recorded at least 36% of their team’s receiving yards: Boldin, Josh Gordon, and Vincent Jackson.

The 49ers threw 417 passes this season, and Kaepernick was sacked 39 times. Boldin gained 1,179 receiving yards, which means he gained 2.59 receiving yards on every 49ers pass attempt (including sacks) this season. How impressive is that? It’s the best rate in the league. Now, to be fair, both Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon misses two games this year — if you exclude their team’s number of pass attempts in those games, they both just so slightly edge out Boldin for the lead. But the 49ers star still comes in at a respectable #3.

Here’s how to read the table below: Josh Gordon played in 14 games, caught 1,646 yards, and was responsible for 37.6% of all Browns receiving yards. Cleveland had 629 attempts (including sacks) in the games Gordon played As a result, he recorded 2.62 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt, the best rate in the league.

Regular readers know that the better metric would be to use True Receiving Yards, but I decided to keep things simple here. In any event, Boldin has had a magnificent season, and I expect that to continue today.

Revenge Games

One stat you might hear today: Teams like San Francisco who won at home against a non-division opponent but then had to play that team on the road in the playoffs have a 9-20 record since 1970. Of course, the Ravens did this last year, beating the Patriots in Foxboro in the AFC Championship Game after defeating New England at home in the regular season. The two teams in this situation to be favored since 1978 both lost, too: New Orleans in Seattle in 2010 and Philadelphia in Arizona in 2008. But it’s never wise to take too much from just two examples. Since 1978, teams in the 49ers situation are 8-15 with the average spread of 4.5 points, which is not far out of line with what you would expect from that sort of points spread. In other words, the spread matters more than this bit of trivia. The 49ers are 3-point favorites, and I expect them to cover that line.

Stat of the Day

The 49ers trailed with the ball for only 84 minutes and 18 seconds of game time this year. That’s by far the best in the league. Seattle was second at 118 minutes, 7 seconds. In road games, the 49ers only trailed with the ball against the Seahawks (for 12:46), Rams (for 7:19), and Saints (for 8:39). In eight road games, the 49ers offense was only on the field while trailing for 28 minutes and 44 seconds. That was also the best in the league (the Chiefs were second at 50 minutes, 39 seconds…. and didn’t trail for too much of the game yesterday!).

Prediction: San Francisco 30, Green Bay 23