All four Iowa Congressional districts will likely be competitive in 2020. Republicans were already targeting the first and third districts, where Representatives Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne defeated GOP incumbents last November. Democrats could make a play for IA-04, if Representative Steve King wins the GOP nomination again (as I expect).

Representative Dave Loebsack announced on April 12 that he will retire from Congress after completing his seventh term, rather than running for re-election in the second district. Both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report immediately changed their ratings on IA-02 from “likely Democrat” to “toss-up.”

A close look at Loebsack’s last two elections shows why that’s the right call.



A SHORT HISTORY OF REPUBLICAN ATTEMPTS TO UNSEAT LOEBSACK

Iowa’s second district wasn’t widely viewed as competitive when Loebsack challenged U.S. Representative Jim Leach in 2006. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent too little, too late to save a 30-year-incumbent from the Democratic wave.

Loebsack’s first re-election bid was uneventful; outside groups spent less than $30,000 to influence the race, and Loebsack beat Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks by a comfortable 57.2 percent to 38.8 percent margin. (The OpenSecrets database, operated by the Center for Responsive Politics, is the most user-friendly resource on spending in Congressional campaigns.)

Miller-Meeks challenged Loebsack again in 2010. Although national Republican groups mostly ignored the race, the conservative dark money group American Future Fund placed a negative tv ad about Loebsack. The incumbent started running his first negative television commercial in early October, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was scared enough to spend nearly $600,000 on two tv ads attacking Miller-Meeks (see here and here). Loebsack survived the Republican landslide that ended many Iowa Democratic political careers, but only by a 51.0 percent to 45.9 percent margin.

The political map adopted in 2011 changed Loebsack’s territory significantly and forced him to move. The most-populous county from his old district (Linn, containing the Cedar Rapids area and Loebsack’s longtime home) became part of IA-01. In exchange, IA-02 picked up Scott County.

Not only had Loebsack not represented the Quad Cities area before, Scott County has for decades been less of a Democratic vote-producer than Linn County. As of 2011, the new IA-02 had a partisan voter index of D+4, compared to D+7 for Loebsack’s previous district. (The Cook Political Report developed the PVI to “measure how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole.”)

Loebsack’s voting pattern changed during his third term, partly because of his redrawn district, and also because 2011 was his first year serving in a Republican-controlled House. He occasionally voted for GOP bills opposed by most of the Democratic caucus, such as a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced federal budget, legislation against so-called “farm dust” regulations, and an attempt to block some rules affecting small business. In addition, Loebsack often highlighted his support for the Rock Island Arsenal, a major employer in the Quad Cities area.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put Loebsack in its “frontline” program for vulnerable incumbents in early 2012. Loebsack raised substantially more money for that campaign than he had the previous cycle. Both individual and political action committees gave more, with PACs providing about 60 percent of Loebsack’s campaign funds.

Republicans made a big play for IA-02 in the first election under Iowa’s new map, spending more than three-quarters of a million dollars against Loebsack. Internal polling didn’t worry Democrats as the campaign wore on; the DCCC spent less than $100,000 here and didn’t run tv ads against GOP challenger John Archer. Loebsack won a fourth term by 55.6 percent to 42.5 percent, almost identical to President Barack Obama’s 55.8 percent to 42.7 percent advantage over Mitt Romney in the IA-02 counties.

Miller-Meeks took a third crack at running for Congress in 2014, and she had Loebsack worried. He raised and spent more than he had on his previous re-election bids, as the NRCC spent nearly $950,000 against him. The DCCC and the House Majority PAC (a Democratic-aligned super-PAC) spent more than $500,000 combined against Miller-Meeks. But while the 2014 general election was dreadful for many Iowa Democratic candidates, Loebsack held off Miller-Meeks by 52.5 percent to 47.4 percent.

Republicans and their conservative allies gave up on IA-02, spending nothing on Loebsack’s race in 2016 or last year. Loebsack faced the same challenger, Christopher Peters, in both cycles and more than doubled his opponent’s spending each time.

LOEBSACK SUBSTANTIALLY OUTPERFORMED HILLARY CLINTON IN 2016

In retrospect, Republicans may have missed an opportunity by not targeting Loebsack during the last presidential cycle. Donald Trump had led Iowa polls for months, but the scale of his victory here–by a greater margin than he won Texas–was surprising. Trump carried all four Iowa Congressional districts, gaining 186,384 votes (49.1 percent) in the IA-02 counties to 170,796 votes (45.0 percent) for Hillary Clinton. Republicans picked up two state Senate seats in Loebsack’s territory and nearly took out a third Democratic senator in southeast Iowa.

Meanwhile, Loebsack defeated Peters by 198,571 votes to 170,933 (53.7 percent to 46.2 percent).

Click on any county on this map to bring up the vote totals and percentages for Loebsack, Peters, Clinton, and Trump in 2016. The colors represent the Congressional results; Clinton only carried two of these 24 counties: Johnson and Scott (barely). I took the data from the official canvass of the 2016 election. Another good resource to bookmark is the Daily Kos spreadsheet showing the 2016 presidential results in all Iowa Congressional districts and counties.

County Name

Loebsack won with more than 60% Loebsack won with more than 50% Peters won with more than 50% Peters won with more than 60%

For those who prefer tables, here are the votes for major-party Congressional and presidential candidates in 2016, with counties in descending order by total ballots cast.

Votes for Congress and president in IA-02 counties, 2016 County Loebsack votes Peters votes Clinton votes Trump votes Scott 44,445 38,997 40,440 39,149 Johnson 50,691 23,386 50,200 21,044 Clinton 12,185 10,214 10,095 11,276 Muscatine 9,946 8,780 8,368 9,584 Des Moines 10,190 8,089 8,212 9,529 Jasper 8,809 9,455 7,109 10,560 Marion 6,611 10,276 5,482 10,962 Lee 8,543 7,152 6,215 8,803 Wapello 7,574 6,912 5,594 8,715 Washington 4,905 5,621 3,943 6,173 Mahaska 3,384 6,585 2,619 7,432 Henry 4,141 4,861 2,904 5,779 Cedar 4,658 4,549 3,599 5,295 Jefferson 4,572 3,194 3,710 3,748 Appanoose 2,590 3,253 1,814 4,033 Louisa 2,179 2,639 1,648 3,069 Keokuk 1,945 2,754 1,342 3,390 Clarke 1,925 2,246 1,465 2,713 Lucas 1,585 2,511 1,239 2,877 Davis 1,795 1,959 977 2,723 Monroe 1,731 1,898 1,056 2,638 Decatur 1,577 1,914 1,201 2,296 Van Buren 1,455 2,001 845 2,527 Wayne 1,135 1,687 719 2,069 District-wide 198,571 170,933 170,796 186,384

LOEBSACK ALSO OUTPERFORMED FRED HUBBELL IN 2018

Though Loebsack spent more on his 2018 rematch against Peters than he had in any previous election cycle, few people considered the IA-02 race competitive. Aided by the advantages of incumbency and stronger Democratic turnout than usual for a midterm election in Iowa, the incumbent won 171,446 votes (54.8 percent) to 133,287 votes (42.6 percent) for Peters. A Libertarian took about 2 percent of the vote, mostly hurting Peters. With only two candidates on the ballot in 2016, the Republican had lost to Loebsack by a smaller margin.

Using the Iowa Secretary of State’s official results, I created this interactive map to show how the leading Congressional candidates, Governor Kim Reynolds, and her Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell did in each county. Although Hubbell fared better than Clinton had two years earlier, he didn’t match Loebsack’s vote share anywhere. The colors represent the Congressional voting. Hubbell carried only six counties in Loebsack’s district: Johnson, Scott, Lee, Des Moines, Jefferson, and Clinton (barely).

County Name

Loebsack won with more than 70% Loebsack won with more than 50% Peters won with less than 50% Peters won with more than 50% Peters won with more than 60%

Here are the vote totals in table form, with counties listed from most to least ballots cast in 2018.

Votes for Congress and governor in IA-02 counties, 2018 County Loebsack votes Peters votes Hubbell votes Reynolds votes Scott 38,282 29,012 35,147 32,750 Johnson 49,010 16,998 48,758 18,119 Clinton 9,864 7,725 9,047 8,847 Jasper 7,519 7,622 7,234 8,377 Des Moines 8,546 6,138 8,038 6,827 Muscatine 7,797 6,569 7,081 7,535 Marion 5,630 8,796 5,249 9,479 Lee 6,515 5,578 6,387 5,973 Wapello 5,775 5,169 5,480 6,313 Washington 4,272 4,595 3,746 5,189 Mahaska 2,712 5,489 2,409 6,007 Cedar 4,098 3,725 3,518 4,409 Henry 3,211 3,950 2,996 4,294 Jefferson 4,201 2,644 3,750 3,146 Appanoose 2,055 2,770 1,834 3,101 Keokuk 1,574 2,377 1,294 2,716 Louisa 1,679 2,031 1,469 2,288 Clarke 1,525 1,939 1,280 2,341 Lucas 1,295 2,106 1,172 2,335 Monroe 1,294 1,717 1,061 2,053 Davis 1,389 1,646 1,002 2,070 Decatur 1,122 1,651 1,008 1,872 Van Buren 1,197 1,634 839 2,026 Wayne 884 1,406 722 1,624 District-wide 171,446 133,287 160,521 149,691

Note that even though Reynolds was an incumbent, Hubbell outpolled her by nearly 11,000 votes across Loebsack’s district, winning a slight majority in the IA-02 counties. He lost the governor’s race by a little more than 36,000 votes.

In other words, IA-02 still leans Democratic compared to the state as a whole. That’s consistent with current voter registration totals, showing that these 24 counties contain 166,185 active registered Democrats, 143,331 Republicans, and 185,479 no-party voters. The GOP leads Democrats in statewide voter registrations by 643,447 to 619,782, with 726,226 no-party voters.

Although the incumbency advantage in Congressional races is not as large as it used to be, researchers at FiveThirtyEight.com crunched the numbers from the 2018 elections and found that House incumbents got a boost of a little less than 3 percent in their districts.

Without Loebsack on the ballot, Democrats will have to fight harder to win this district, especially since Republican and GOP-aligned groups will surely spend money here. The current Cook PVI for IA-02 is just D+1, indicating that taking the 2012 and 2016 presidential results together, residents of Loebsack’s district voted about 1 point more Democratic than the country as a whole.

WHO MIGHT RUN IN 2020?

I expect competitive primaries for both major parties’ nominations. The first Democrat to announce could be Iowa City business owner Veronica Tessler.

Many Democrats have encouraged former State Senator Rita Hart to run, and she is thinking about it. A farmer and former educator who represented a swing district in Clinton and Scott counties, Hart was Hubbell’s running mate in 2018. She would be the favorite in the primary if she goes for it.

Newly-elected State Senator Zach Wahls has long been seen as a likely Congressional candidate someday. He could run in 2020 without giving up his position in Senate district 37. UPDATE: Wahls tweeted on April 14, that he “had a great conversation” with Hart the previous day. “If she chooses to run for Congress, she will have my full support. She’s smart, tough, and a terrific fit for #IA02.”

Other possible candidates include State Representative Wes Breckenridge, who is from Jasper County, and Davenport attorney Ian Russell.

A crowded field will likely emerge on the Republican side. Peters posted on Facebook on April 12 that he’s on vacation in Italy and will “defer any further discussion” about IA-02 “for another week or two.” Miller-Meeks was just elected in 2018 to represent Iowa Senate district 41 and could run for Congress without giving up her legislative office. So could State Senator Roby Smith, who represents part of Scott County.

State Senator Mark Lofgren sought to challenge Loebsack in 2014, but raised little money and lost the primary to Miller-Meeks. He won Iowa Senate district 46 (parts of Muscatine and Scott counties) two years later and would have to choose between seeking re-election and running for higher office in 2020.

According to Erin Murphy’s article for the Quad-City Times, State Representative Bobby Kaufmann (the son of Iowa GOP state party chair Jeff Kaufmann) received 350 calls or text messages during the two hours after Loebsack announced plans to retire. Murphy wrote that Bettendorf Mayor Bob Gallagher is “Another Republican sometimes mentioned” as a Congressional candidate.

Any comments about what should be a fascinating campaign in IA-02 are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that this could be an expensive race, since the IA-02 counties are located in five different media markets. Clinton, Scott, Muscatine, Louisa, Des Moines, and Henry counties receive Quad Cities television stations. Johnson, Cedar, Keokuk, and Washington counties are part of the Cedar Rapids market. Jasper, Marion, Mahaska, Monroe, Lucas, Clarke, Decatur, Wayne, and Appanoose counties receive Des Moines television stations. Wapello, Jefferson, Davis, and Van Buren counties are part of Ottumwa-Kirksville. Lee County is part of the Quincy, Illinois market.

LATER UPDATE: James Q. Lynch reported for the Cedar Rapids Gazette on April 16 that State Senator Kevin Kinney may seek the Democratic nomination.

“I’m talking to people here in Des Moines, back home and my family,” Kinney said, adding that he hopes to make a decision within the next few weeks. “I feel like I would be a good fit for the district. I come from the same background that many in the district come from,” he said. I’ve been in agriculture my entire life, been involved in law enforcement for 30 years and I just feel I would be a good representation for the whole district.” […] Kinney, 56, who was first elected in 2014, previously served on the Clear Creek Amana school board. He’s the ranking Democrat on the Iowa House Agriculture and Judiciary committees and serves on Ethics and Transportation committees as well as the Agriculture and Natural Resources Appropriations Subcommittee.

On the Republican side, Michael Bousselot (a former chief of staff to Governor Terry Branstad) was floated as a possible GOP candidate during the last election cycle, because he is from Davenport. But Bousselot lives and works in the Des Moines area now, and I haven’t heard any recent speculation that he may move back east.

Appendix 1: April 12 news release from Representative Dave Loebsack

Loebsack Announces He Will Retire at End of 116th Congress Congressman Dave Loebsack released the following statement today after announcing that he will be retiring at the end of the 116th Congress. Loebsack was first elected in 2006 and will have served for a total of 14 years at the end of this 116th Congress. A list of Loebsack’s accomplishments throughout the years can be found here. “I have enjoyed beyond my expectations serving the people of Iowa’s Second District for the past 13 years. Having grown up in poverty, I never would have imagined having the honor of serving as the voice of Iowans in the U.S. House of Representatives. To best achieve that, I made it a point to meet with folks where they live, work and play in order to focus on improving their lives. I have worked hard to ensure ALL Iowans have had their voice heard. “When first elected, I had planned to serve no more than 12 years. However, after Donald Trump assumed the presidency, it became apparent that I needed to run for at least one more term in the hopes that I could provide a check on his worst impulses. Currently, there are nearly two years remaining in this term and I look forward to playing an important role in the new House majority, not only to prevent further damage done by President Trump, but to also help set the stage for a new Democratic president to be inaugurated in January of 2021. “In the remainder of my service, I will continue to serve the people of Iowa with the same energy and commitment that I have devoted to this job from the beginning. In particular, I will continue to focus on growing the middle class and helping provide opportunity to folks seeking to move into the middle class. To that end, I will keep up my efforts to ensure access to affordable, quality healthcare for all; increase access to quality education at all levels to provide the opportunity to achieve; and expand access to quality broadband, especially in rural communities and for those who would be unable to achieve the American dream if they can’t receive the service they need. “Finally, I will never forget our veterans. These men and women were willing to make the ultimate sacrifice for our nation and we must ensure that we care for them with the same dignity and honor with which they served.”

Appendix 2: Document from Representative Dave Loebsack’s office highlighting his accomplishments