We have a last batch of polls ahead of Tuesday's Alabama Senate race, and there's no agreement whatsoever about how things look:

So… the only poll that matters… something something… Election Day?

In all seriousness, as multiple political observers have noted, this race is an extremely tough one to poll. In addition to the many factors that make accurate polling a challenge even under the best of circumstances, few firms have much experience polling a general election in Alabama, and no one really knows what turnout will look like for a rare December special election. No one's also sure how voters in this conservative state are reacting to the numerous reports about Moore's predatory behavior, or how many voters will show up but write-in another name.

And as clique as it is to say this all comes down to turnout, Monmouth highlights how different assumptions about who will and won't show up can change who is ahead. Their "model with higher overall turnout, where voter demographics look more like the 2016 election" gives Jones a 48-45 lead, while their "standard midterm turnout model" has Moore up 48-44. But every pollster needs to use their judgment to make a final decision on what the electorate will look like, and Monmouth's "2017-based model," which is "based on patterns seen in last month's Virginia gubernatorial race - i.e. relatively higher turnout in Democratic strongholds," results in a tie.

But no matter what happens, Daily Kos Elections will be here liveblogging Tuesday's race, starting at 8 PM ET when the polls close, and tweeting as well. Be sure to get comfy: In the August primary we didn’t have so much as 14 percent of precincts reporting until 9:11 ET.