Number Munchers – We’re the Replacements! – The Results So Far

As painful as it was to fall just short of a World Series title, the Kansas City Royals went into the 2014-15 offseason with a buzz of promise and hope for the future. Almost the entire AL Championship squad was set to return as young and hungry pups just starting to realize their individual and collective potentials, several of them locked into very team friendly deals or still in the early years of the arbitration process.

However, even with the major league payroll substantially increased, there were a few notable casualties of the business of baseball. The free agent market for James Shields, credited with damn near single handedly reversing the culture of losing our club had come to accept, and Billy Butler, the face of the team for the past decade, proved to be too expensive. Nori Aoki, having lost considerable playing time in the playoffs to Jarrod Dyson, quietly took his talents to the San Francisco Giants.

In just another example of what we’ve now come to expect from our stalwart leader, #GMDM methodically reviewed his organization and the market as a whole. The Royals needed to replace Shields’s 227 IP of 3.21 ERA ball in the rotation, and realistically needed significant improvement over the combined 10 HR, 109 RBI and .706 OPS of Aoki and Butler. His solution came (mostly) in the form of 3 players: Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios.

The immediate feedback from fans and media was fairly blah. Morales and Rios were reclamation projects, both having previous stretches of great success at the major league level but also both falling on substantially decreased production in more recent years. Volquez was riding the high of his best professional season, with 2014 base numbers that matched up well with Shields (3.04 ERA, 192.2 IP). However, his -2.5 WAR in 2013 and -1.3 in 2011 pointed out his previous inconsistencies. On paper, these looked like 3 very boom-or-bust signings.

Now, of course these players were not brought in to one-on-one replace the production of Shields, Butler and Aoki. Baseball is far more complicated than that. Other key additions brought in or solutions already in the system (Young, Blanton, Pino, Orlando, Dyson, etc.) will certainly be at play before it is all said and done.

But for the purposes of this exercise, we’ll go mono y mono. How have “the big 3” succeeded in comparison to their predecessors? Note: All stats pulled May 7, 2105 PRIOR to any games that day.

Billy Butler vs Kendrys Morales

Butler: 118 PA – .257/.314/.385 – 95 OPS+ – 3 HR – 12 RBI – 8 BB – 17 K – 7 GIDP – 0.0 WAR

Morales: 118 PA – .306/.364/.491 – 135 OPS+ – 4 HR – 23 RBI – 8 BB – 20 K – 4 GIDP – .7 WAR

Hands down, this goes to Morales. #PulledPork is on pace for 24 HR, 138 RBI, 48 BB, 120 K, and a (very highly unlikely) 4.2 WAR. That would be one of the best offensive seasons in Kansas City Royals history. Billy is continuing his 2014 offensive struggles in Athletic green. Having been an unapologetic #CountryBreakfast supporter over the years, I certainly hope he finds a way to turn it around. But unless he gets on a historic hot streak and Morales goes ice cold, our new DH will prove to be a significant upgrade.

Nori Aoki vs Alex Rios (and Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson)

Aoki: 128 PA – .289/.367/.377 – 113 OPS+ – 1 HR – 8 RBI – 12 BB – 13 K – 2 GIDP – 8 SB – 1.0 Field % – .7 WAR

Rios, Orlando and Dyson – 134 PA – .268/.298/.393 – 89.33 OPS+, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 5 BB, 23 K, 3 GIDP, .991 Field %, 8 SB, 1.0 WAR

This one is much closer to being a push. It is unfortunate, though not completely unpredictable, that Rios has not been able to stay healthy so far. He was off to a very good start (.321/.345/.464, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB through 29 PA) before taking a high inside pitch off the thumb that has him sidelined until at least June. Orlando and Dyson are performing adequately in his stead (combined .9 WAR over 105 AB). Aoki got off to a very hot start, cooling down in recent weeks to his current line. From a pure numbers standpoint, this comparison is probably a push. We get a little more pop and run production from our trio, but Aoki will provide a significantly higher OBP.

However, the exercise moves significantly in Aoki’s favor when you factor in cost. Aoki is set to make 4.7 million in salary in 2015 versus the combined figure of 12.74 million for Rios, Dyson and Orlando. For that reason, we’ll give this one to Aoki … for now.

James Shields vs Edinson Volquez

Shields: 36.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 9 BB, 48 K, 92 ERA+, 1.211 WHIP, 11.9 K/9

Volquez: 34.1 IP, 2.10 ERA, 8 BB, 27 K, 201 ERA+, .932 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

Shields has a significant edge in strikeouts. Both have around 6 IP per start. However, surprising to those of us that believed 2014 was an anomaly, Volquez has been the better pitcher in all the other categories. How will that translate out to the rest of the year? It is tough to say. Both pitch in spacious home ball parks. Both are in divisions that feature excellent hitters and should be close races all year. For now, we’ll give this one to Volquez.

Through exactly 1/6th of the 2015 season, #GMDM is “winning” this admittedly ridiculous exercise 2-1. Even more so, we are seeing the more under-the-radar moves he made paying off significantly. Chris Young has been exceptional in bullpen/spot start duty and is the natural “next man up” for a rotation spot should Vargas or Guthrie continue to struggle. If Ryan Madson continues the clip he is on, he will be one of the top runners up to Kendrys Morales for Comeback Player of the Year. Jason Frasor, Yohan Pino and Franklin Morales (last night aside) have been exceptional out of the pen as well.

Get used to success, Royals fans. #GMDM knows what he is doing.

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