Opinion

TASCHINGER: Beto starting slow, but the race is long

FILE -- Beto O'Rourke holds a rally to officially kick off his presidential bid in El Paso, Texas, March 30, 2019. Timely help from O’Rourke’s influential if not superrich family played a key role in his transformation from rootless former musician to start-up founder, civic leader and candidate. (Ruth Fremson/The New York Times) less FILE -- Beto O'Rourke holds a rally to officially kick off his presidential bid in El Paso, Texas, March 30, 2019. Timely help from O’Rourke’s influential if not superrich family played a key role in his ... more Photo: RUTH FREMSON, STF / NYT Photo: RUTH FREMSON, STF / NYT Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close TASCHINGER: Beto starting slow, but the race is long 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

Some Democrats, particularly those in Texas, thought Beto O’Rourke would run away with the presidential nomination the way Barack Obama did in 2008. It hasn’t started out that way, and some of his supporters are starting to get worried. They shouldn’t. It’s way too early.

The slew of spring announcements has overwhelmed voters. There are simply too many Democratic presidential candidates out there — literally 20 so far — for anyone to break out of the pack in a meaningful way. It won’t get any better as the hot weather approaches. Voters notoriously tune out politics in the summer, particularly the summer before the year when it really matters. If Beto is still stalling, or perceived as stalling, in September, he might go down in history as overhyped and underperforming, but that’s still months away.

The Democrats who lead the polls now — Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden — do so mostly through name recognition. Both are older than any serious candidate in history (76 and 75) at a time when the party appears to be in the mood for a younger, fresher face. If the mood holds, those candidates would fade while someone like Beto pulls ahead.

But the competition is going to be fierce. It’s also possible that candidates like Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar rise to the top. They are not that well-known nationally now, but both have the kind of resume and skills that could set them apart.

Beto did start with a huge burst of fundraising — $6.1 million in less than 24 hours, setting a new record, one previously held by Bernie, incidentally. His cash haul has cooled, but that was inevitable, and it doesn’t take away from the impressive numbers he began with. That showed clear potential.

The problem for Beto, and every other candidate in this crazily crowded field, is to somehow stay relevant and make the right headlines. It won’t be easy to break through the clutter, especially since the policy differences between the candidates are so slight. It would help if he had a signature issue that voters could rally around, but every candidate is thinking that. (Hint: It won’t be voting rights for prison inmates.)

For now, Beto has an advantage in being known as a moderate liberal along with Joe Biden instead of a full-on liberal like virtually every other Democratic candidate.

For now, progressive enthusiasm is strong among Democrats. It may fade as the election year approaches and Democrats realize they need someone who can actually beat President Trump instead of someone who makes them feel good at a rally.

The big early states are obviously the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, and neither seems particularly friendly to a Texan. But if Beto has the kind of appeal he showed in his race last year against Sen. Ted Cruz, he will overcome these challenges and finish well.

That first month of the primary season will be crucial, with at least half the field dropping out because it’s clear they aren’t going anywere. Beto’s strategy — everyone’s, really — will be to survive that first round and try to make real progress when the race is down to four or five candidates.

Remember that Beto did far better than anyone expected in a red state against a strong incumbent. He actually raised way more money than Cruz and lost by only 2.6 percentage points. That could translate into national momentum.

We shall see, but this contest isn’t going to be lost now, or even soon. Like marathon runners in the first few miles, the candidates are mostly trying to keep pace and be ready to turn it on when it matters. My guess is that Beto will be in that final bunch. Then we will find out if he was a fad or a phenomenon.

Thomas Taschinger is the Opinions Editor for the Beaumont Enterprise. Contact him at TTaschinger@BeaumontEnterprise.com or on Twitter by clicking here.