Hey, I’m back. Sorry I missed last week. I tried to call, but it kept going straight to voicemail, and I didn’t want to leave a message because I figured I’d just see you Tuesday at the thing.

About Last Week:

The Road Ahead:

#13 Northwestern (5-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Ball State 24-19, Beat Minnesota 27-0

Recap: Northwestern is a thing. Probably.

They’re 5-0, they’re ranked in the top 15 for the first time 2001. They’ve given up the fewest points per game in the country (unless you’re just talking about points surrendered by the defense, in which case Michigan has the best scoring defense). They’re only giving up 4.0 yards per pass attempt, and have yet to surrender a 200 yard passing day to anyone.

But at the same time, the algorithms don’t like them very much (they’re #29 in the S&P+) and Vegas doesn’t trust them (they opened +12 against Michigan, which has since moved to about +8). And the reason is pretty obvious. They haven’t scored more than 24 points against any FBS opponents, and they’re #116 in the country in yards per play and #119 in passing yards per game.

Still, Northwestern remains a team about which we don’t know a lot, other than “defense good, offense bad.” Case in point: Northwestern bludgeoned Minnesota 27-0, which looks like a score indicative of an all-three-phases performance. But 14 of those points came on a fumble return for a touchdown and a punt return to the 5 yard line. Northwestern held Minnesota under 200 yards, but barely cracked 300 yards themselves.

This team is as frightening as: The upper end of the thing MInnesota was supposed to be. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Northwestern is second in the conference in pretty much every major defensive category.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: They are second to Michigan in pretty much every major defensive category

When they play Michigan: Northwestern is what is known as a “fleet in being.” The problem isn’t that Northwestern is necessarily a good team. It that they are potentially a good team. Michigan plays Northwestern immediately before Michigan State, and I’m sure Harbaugh would prefer to treat this game much like they did UNLV; throw rock the whole time, not show anything interesting, and maybe set up the next opponent for a couple of counterpunches. But Northwestern looks real enough to have to take as a potentially serious game, thus losing the opportunity to play for the next move.

This week: @ #18 Michigan, 3:30, BTN

[AFTER THE JUMP: Monty Python, Kevin Bacon, and a rock]

#4 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Central Michigan 30-10, Beat Purdue 24-21

Recap: The universe is a bizarre place sometimes. Michigan State spent years banging the disrespect drum louder and longer than was previously thought possible, and often justifiably. Their end-of-season rankings in the last couple of seasons made pretty clear that they probably should have been ranked higher throughout the season. So when undefeated Michigan State dropped in both the AP and Coaches Polls after another victory, their fans reacted with a bombastic chorus of, “eh, that seems right.”

Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread this year. Every single game they’ve played has been at least interesting in the fourth quarter, despite playing two MAC teams, Air Force, and an “And I Have Cable” Big Ten team.

This team is as frightening as: A thing that you KNOW should frighten you, but doesn’t. Which is pretty frightening. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: State’s defense has issues in the secondary, but they remain very stout up front. The latter is more important to stop Michigan, except when it comes to Montae Nicholson’s Continuing Adventures in Tackling Trigonometry.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Compare the following defenses:

Team A Team B Yards allowed 1019 920 Yards per play allowed 3.28 3.10 Rushing YPC allowed 1.97 2.32 Passing YPA allowed 4.22 3.94 Points per game allowed 13.4 7.6

They’re pretty close, but you’d probably give a slight edge to Team B, yes? Well, that’s good. Because Team B is, in fact, Michigan. And Team A is Michigan State through five games.

2013 Michigan State.

When they play Michigan: I will not get too optimistic I will not get too optimistic I will not get too optimistic. Vegas help a brother would… DAMMIT Vegas that isn’t helping.

This week: @ Rutgers, 8:00 p.m., BTN

Minnesota (3-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Ohio (YTO) 27-24, Lost at Northwestern 27-0

Recap: No offense, Goldie, but I think we’ve found a more fitting mascot.

They wear brownish garments, wander around slowly and aimlessly, and repeatedly bash themselves in the head. The bashing seems to be intentional, but it is unclear how the bashing is intended to bring about the desired result.

Minnesota is trending in a very poor direction. A six point loss to TCU is a pretty good result. Three three-point losses to Colorado State, Kent State, and Ohio are not good results. Losing 27-0 to Northwestern (even if Northwestern is good) is what we call a “red flag.” Their longest drive against Northwestern was 37 yards. The culprit, surprisingly, hasn’t been their Vietnam-era passing game, but rather the running game. They are down more than a yard per carry compared to last year (4.68 to 3.66) and 75 yards per game total (215 to 141).

Mitch Leidner was so bad in this one that they finally ripped a redshirt off of true freshman Demry Croft, a Freshman-Caris-LeVert-esque 6’5” 200 pounder with a couple of MAC offers. Croft proceeded to go 5 of 11 for 27 yards.

This team is as frightening as: An actual gopher. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: An evening Halloween game is gonna have so damn many puns from the announcers. At least it isn’t on the Big Ten Network?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Minnesota probably won’t, um, score.

When they play Michigan: The word “slog” comes to mind. As do the words “trek,” “grind,” and “trudge.”

This week: @ Purdue, 3:30 P.M., ESPN

Rutgers (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Kansas 27-14, Bye

Recap: Easily Rutgers’ two best weeks of the year. First they handily defeated Kansas, who is a real live team with uniforms and pads and a stadium-shaped building and everything. They then went the entire bye week without having anyone arrested, publicly embarrassed, or otherwise pulling a Rutgers.

Baby steps, gentlemen. Baby steps.

This team is as frightening as: A formulaic1986 horror movie about a killer hitchhiker, starring Jennifer Jason Leigh.

Sorry, that was literally the first Google Image Search result for ‘Rutgers is scary.' Fear Level = 61% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Michigan should worry about: Getting picked up and slammed into the concrete by someone twice your size.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Apparently being picked up and slammed into the concrete by someone twice your size is apparently not that bad after all.

When they play Michigan: Michigan will win.

This week: vs. #4 Michigan State, 8:00 p.m., BTN

Indiana (4-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Wake Forest 31-24, Lost to Ohio State 34-27

Recap: Is a Pyrrhic Moral Victory a thing? Because if not, it is now.

Indiana didn’t just hang with Ohio State. They frankly outplayed Ohio State for much of this game. They jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first half, and still had a four point lead late in the third quarter when Zeke Elliott converted a 4th and 1 from its own 35… into a 65 yard touchdown. In fact, Elliot threw three Tyson-style haymakers in this one, and Indiana kept coming back. They didn’t skip a beat when Jordan Howard rolled an ankle, and barely flinched when Nate Sudfeld rolled an ankle and Zander Diamont had to reprise his role as “so, that guy is our quarterback I guess.” And Indiana had a first and goal from the five with a chance to tie (or go for two and the win), but alas, it was not to be.

The problem for Indiana now is that if Sudfeld and Howard are out for anything approaching the long term, and without Darius Latham, Indiana’s prospects are almost back where they were before the unexpected 4-0 start. They have a relatively easy remaining schedule (they still have Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, and Purdue), but while 6 or 7 wins are possible, the prospects of a Dream-by-Indiana-Standards Season very much rely on the word from the training room.

This team is as frightening as: #CHAOSTEAM. Fear Level = 5 +/- 3.5

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This guy might be quarterbacking Indiana:

Michigan should worry about: That guy is also THIS guy:

Somehow the latter seems much better at football. And stealin’ yo girl.

When they play Michigan: The game will be decidedly less interesting than it could have been if like ONE DAMN BREAK had gone Indiana’s way last week.

This week: @ Penn State, noon, ESPN2

Penn State (4-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat San Diego State 37-21, Beat Army 20-14

Recap: Penn State is 4-1, which would say a lot more if Penn State hadn’t racked up those four wins against the teams ranked #91, #92, #105, and #110 in S&P+. This week’s rendition of A Win Is A Win I Guess was a 20-14 barn-burner in which they were outgained by Army. And while normally defeating the U.S. Army is an impressive feat, Army is the weakest of the service academy teams from a football standpoint, and they are extremely undersized on both sides of the ball. After surrendering 445 yards to Fordham, 415 yards to UConn, 340 yards to Wake Forrest and 473 (!) yards to Eastern Michigan, Army held Penn State to 264 yards.

This team is as frightening as: Same as it ever was.

Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: This is going to be a cold, miserable defensive facemasher of a game in which one big score could be enough, and given James Franklin’s tactical and strategic genius…

Michigan can sleep soundly about:

Yeah, scratch that.

When they play Michigan: See also: "When they play Minnesota"

This week: vs. Indiana, noon, ESPN2

#1 Ohio State (5-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Michigan 38-12, Won at Indiana, 34-27

Recap:

I wish I could provide some insightful snark here, but honestly I can’t explain this one. Cardale Jones has been bad but not apocalyptic. They have talent out the wazoo at all of the skill positions. They returned everyone from an offensive line that was kick-ass last year. The defense remains really good. So what the hell is the problem?

You want to know what this feels like? It feels like Charlie Weis’s Notre Dame teams. By all objective measures, this should be a juggernaut. But then they try to put everything together, and the damn thing just doesn’t work right. Odds are, they figure it out and come into the game undefeated and playing good football. But at this point, they just aren’t playing that well.

This team is as frightening as: Unreasonable optimism.

Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: It’s The Game, and crazy shit happens in The Game.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: It’s The Game, and crazy shit happens in The Game.

When they play Michigan: Crazy shit will almost certainly happen.

This week: vs. Maryland, noon, BTN

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

#5 Utah (4-0, 1-0 PAC-12)

Last week: Won at Oregon 62-20, Bye

Recap: They’re coming off a bye, but we didn’t talk about their win over Oregon yet, which… HOLY GENITALS, BATMAN. Oregon ain’t what it used to be, but this was still at Autzen at night, and they absolutely demolished the Ducks. I mean…

That’s a choo-choo train right there. Meanwhile, Oregon’s points came on one real drive, one 11-yard drive following a punt return, and a garbage time drive against Utah’s sixth string. To slice Utah’s lead to 42 in the last two minutes of the game.

It’s hard to say whether Utah’s win did more help to Michigan or harm to Michigan State, but all in all it was quite enjoyable. Now Gameday is going to be in Salt Lake City for Utah/Cal this week, which falls deep into Sign of the Apocalypse territory.

This week: vs. #23 Cal, 10:00 p.m., ESPN

Oregon State (2-2, 0-1 PAC-12)

Last week: Lost to Stanford 42-24, Bye

Recap: Respectability, part one. Oregon State held its own against Stanford through the first half, and were still somewhat in the game in the fourth quarter. They currently sit at #65 in the S&P+, roughly in the upper-middle-class MAC team/underwhelming but potentially viable P5 team category. Against most odds, bowl eligibility is not out of the question for the Beavers.

This week: @ Arizona, 4:00 p.m., FS1

UNLV (2-3, 1-0 MWC)

Last week: Beat Idaho State 80-8, won at Nevada 23-17

Recap: Respectability, part two. Neither a demolition of the Idaho State Potato Hawks nor a win at bottomfeeder Nevada is the stuff of legend, each is decidedly better than the alternative. According to the algorithm people, Michigan’s win over UNLV is better than every single win on Penn State’s resume.

They’re still bad, but not THAT bad.

This week: vs. San Jose State, 9:00 p.m., no TV because obvious.

BYU (3-2)

Last week: Lost at Michigan 658-(-3), Beat UConn 30-13

Recap: BYU’s win over UConn wasn’t as close as it appears, despite being much much closer than it appears. They outgained UConn 539-230 and Tanner Mangum threw for 365 yards, but somehow UConn was within a touchdown midway through the 4th quarter before BYU pulled away with a couple of late scores. Hell, this was the stat line at halftime of a tie game:

Football is dumb and makes no sense sometimes.

This week: vs. East Carolina, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU