Summary: Evidence for the effect of background checks on violent crime and total homicide rates is inconclusive. Evidence that dealer background checks may reduce firearm homicides is moderate, and evidence for the effect of private-seller background checks on firearm homicides is inconclusive.

Key Findings Background checks have uncertain effects on violent crime and total homicides. Evidence for this relationship is inconclusive. Dealer background checks may decrease firearm homicides. Evidence for this relationship is moderate. Private-seller background checks have uncertain effects on firearm homicides. Evidence for this relationship is inconclusive.

Of studies that examined the relationship between background checks and violent crime, we identified 14 that met our inclusion criteria.[1] Ludwig and Cook (2000) studied the impact of the 1994 Brady Act and found no difference in homicide rates across states that had laws comparable to those the Brady Act would impose (which initially included both background checks and a waiting period) and states that experienced larger changes in the law when the Brady Act was implemented.[2] The Ludwig and Cook study had an unfavorable ratio of estimated parameters to observations (less than one to six), meaning its parameter estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) may not be accurate because of model overfitting.

Another study used similar identifying variation from the Brady Act but used a triple difference-in-difference-in-differences design, exploiting differential effects of the Brady Act across states and over time, as well as expected differential effects by age group, because juveniles under age 21 were already prohibited from purchasing a handgun (Monroe, 2008). Specifically, this model estimated the differential change in adult homicide rates before and after the Brady Act for states that were affected by the act versus those that were not, relative to the contemporaneous differential change in juvenile homicide rates. Results showed uncertain effects of the act on total and handgun-specific homicide rates but significant effects consistent with the act reducing firearm homicides that involved guns other than handguns.

Gius (2015a) examined the effect of the federal Brady Act, state-mandated dealer background checks (either a check that was in place before the Brady Act or checks for categories of state-prohibited possessors other than those mandated by the Brady Act), and state-mandated private-seller background checks on gun-related homicides (the paper did not evaluate the effect of these variables on total homicides). The analysis of the federal Brady Act does not meet our criteria for inclusion because, although the regression model evaluated whether changes occurred after implementation of the Brady Act, there was no comparison (control) group. State dealer background checks were found to significantly reduce firearm homicides by 20 percent (see the figure below), but the study's design cannot distinguish whether this effect is attributable to a state's implementation of background checks prior to the Brady Act, prohibition of more classes of people from owning guns after the Brady Act was passed, or some combination of the two. Private-seller background checks appeared to increase firearm homicides to levels 131 percent of what would be expected without the policy. However, in sensitivity analyses that restricted the study time frame to the Brady Act period (1994 onward) when all states were required to implement dealer background checks, the estimated effect of state-level private-seller background checks became small and uncertain or significantly negative. Because the authors did not provide information on the timing of state background check laws, it is unclear whether the sensitivity of the results is due to collinearity between state dealer and private-seller background check laws, heterogeneous effects of private-seller background check laws in the later versus earlier period, or some other factor.

La Valle (2013) used variation in when states adopted background checks like those required by the Brady Act to investigate the effects of such laws on firearm homicides and total homicides. Using data from 56 large U.S. cities over 1980–2010, the author found in his preferred models (population-weighted models with a one-year lag of the dependent variable included in the model, controlling for other state gun policies and including other time-varying state covariates that were interpolated over the period) that pre–Brady Act state background check requirements had an uncertain effect on either firearm homicides or total homicides.

Sen and Panjamapirom (2012) examined the effects of the types of background checks conducted by states on homicides. They noted that the supply of state and local records to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) is voluntary and that substantial variation exists in state laws regarding the categories of records included in background checks, such as restraining orders, mental illness, fugitive status, and misdemeanors. The authors characterized variation across states in background check requirements using an index of the comprehensiveness of such checks, as well as individual indicators for whether states check on restraining orders, mental illness, fugitive status, misdemeanors, and other miscellaneous records. Using state-level data from 1996 to 2005, the authors examined the effect of these types of checks on both firearm and total homicides. They found that, compared with background checks that examine only criminal history, background checks that include restraining orders, mental illness, and fugitive status are associated with significantly fewer total homicides and firearm homicides. Background checks that include restraining orders were associated with a 13-percent drop in firearm homicide rates and a 9-percent drop in overall homicide rates; background checks for mental illness were associated with a 7-percent drop in both firearm and overall homicide rates; and background checks for fugitive status were associated with a 21-percent and a 23-percent reduction in firearm and total homicide rates, respectively (see the figure below). However, so few states changed criminal history background check or fugitive check policies during the study time frame that these effects cannot confidently be attributed to the background check policies as opposed to other factors affecting homicides in the states around the same time their laws changed. Additionally, the authors did not appear to make any adjustments to account for serial correlation and thus likely overstated the statistical significance of the estimated effects for all components of background checks analyzed. Although the authors also included a control for whether a state had a pre–Brady Act background check requirement, the variation in this policy variable was only across states and not over time because the period of analysis was post-Brady only. Thus, the analysis of the effect of pre-Brady background check policy does not meet our criteria for inclusion.

Lott (2010) examined how state-required background checks for private sales affect violent crime. Detailed results that include coefficients and test statistics were available for only one specification and for the outcome of homicide (Lott, 2010, Table A6.3). This model indicated an uncertain effect of background checks on homicide rates. This model had an unfavorable ratio of estimated parameters to observations (less than one to ten), meaning the estimated effects and significance values may be inaccurate because of model overfitting. Examining a shorter time frame (1979 to 1998) and using negative binomial models with a smaller set of covariates, Hepburn et al. (2004) estimated effects of similar magnitude, also finding that laws requiring background checks before the purchase of a handgun had an uncertain relationship with homicide rates (see the figure below).

Swanson et al. (2013) and Swanson et al. (2016) merged administrative records from public health and criminal justice agencies to evaluate how changes in state reporting of gun-disqualifying mental health records to the NICS affected violent crime arrest rates for individuals with a disqualifying mental health condition relative to individuals diagnosed with a serious mental illness but not prohibited from purchasing a firearm. Swanson et al. (2013) obtained data from 2002 to 2009 for individuals in Connecticut who had been hospitalized for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or major depressive disorder. The authors estimated changes in violent crime arrest rates for individuals with at least one of the mental health adjudications reported to the NICS before and after Connecticut began reporting mental health records in 2007. The authors found a significant 31-percent decline in the probability of violent crime arrest in their sample of individuals who had a mental health adjudication but no disqualifying criminal record (see the figure below). The authors also estimated the likelihood of violent crime arrest for individuals with at least one voluntary psychiatric hospitalization but no mental health adjudication. Relative to the legally disqualified population, the nondisqualified group had a lower likelihood of violent crime arrest both before and after the NICS reporting change, but the magnitude of the decrease following NICS reporting was smaller than the reduction experienced by the "treated" group with a disqualifying mental health condition. However, neither test statistics nor CIs for this difference were reported.

Swanson et al. (2016) employed analogous methods to analyze the effects of NICS reporting changes in 2007 for two Florida counties using data from 2002 to 2011. The authors similarly found a larger reduction in violent crime arrest rates for individuals with a disqualifying mental health history compared with individuals with a serious mental illness that did not prohibit them by law from acquiring a firearm. This difference, a decline of 38 percent (see the figure below), was statistically significant. However, estimates became insignificant when the outcome variable was restricted specifically to violent crimes involving firearms, which could indicate the absence of a causal connection or could be due to measurement error in classifying crimes as involving firearms (Swanson et al., 2016).

Four more studies provide mixed evidence for the effect of background checks on violent crime, although the studies adopt different policy definitions or classifications in evaluating the relationship. Using state-level data from 1977 to 2014, Luca, Malhotra, and Poliquin (2017) evaluated the effects of waiting periods and state dealer background checks on homicide rates among adults aged 21 or older. Their analysis was based on log-linear models adjusting for national trends, state fixed effects, and a limited set of state-level time-varying sociodemographic factors. Although estimates were somewhat sensitive to model specification, they generally showed that background checks had an uncertain relationship with total and firearm homicide rates. Analyzing a similar time frame (1980 to 2013) but focusing on intimate partner homicide, Zeoli et al. (2018) found uncertain effects on total intimate partner homicide rates of comprehensive background check laws and laws that supplement the Federal Bureau of Investigation's background checks with searches of state databases on prohibited possessors. However, the authors estimated a suggestive effect consistent with comprehensive background check laws increasing firearm-specific intimate partner homicide.

Using county-level data from 1984 to 2015 and restricting their sample to large urban counties (i.e., large central metro or large fringe metro areas with populations exceeding 200,000), Crifasi et al. (2018b) found a significant effect consistent with comprehensive background check policies leading to 16-percent increases in firearm homicides, an effect partially offset by a suggestive decline in nonfirearm homicides. However, these effects were based on a definition of comprehensive background check policies without permit-to-purchase requirements. Separately estimating effects of permit-to-purchase laws, which include background check requirements, the authors' models instead showed that the permitting requirements significantly reduced firearm homicides by 14 percent (see our analysis of licensing and permitting requirements). Because the authors made no adjustment for clustering of standard errors at the state level and did not test for overdispersion, the significance values estimated from their model may be invalid.

Kagawa et al. (2018) evaluated how the repeal of comprehensive background check policies affects homicide rates based on repeals in two states, Indiana and Tennessee. The authors used synthetic control methods to construct a counterfactual state based on a weighted combination of states with comprehensive background check laws in effect that provided an adequate match to trends in Tennessee or Indiana prior to each repeal of the background check law. The authors found uncertain effects for both policies on firearm homicide rates, while the estimate from Indiana showed that the repeal was associated with a significant increase in nonfirearm homicide rates. Although analyzing two states with a policy change mitigates some of the concerns with looking at such a change in a single state, these methods remain limited in that they fail to account for potential confounds that may have influenced suicide rates over the post-implementation period. Furthermore, because the study restricts potential control units to states that had comprehensive background check or permit-to-purchase policies over the entire study period, only between seven and 11 states were available to inform the constructed counterfactual; this leads to worse pre-intervention fit and increases the likelihood that any estimated effect represents noise rather than signal.

Finally, Vigdor and Mercy (2006) examined the effects of restraining order and violent misdemeanor background checks on intimate partner homicides and firearm intimate partner homicides by comparing states with more-comprehensive or less-comprehensive approaches to performing those checks. The authors found small differences in rates of such homicides between states with high and low capacities for performing such checks, but they did not provide a test of the significance of these differences.

The figure below displays the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and CIs associated with the background check policies examined in these studies. Swanson et al. (2013) and Vigdor and Mercy (2006) did not provide sufficient data for us to calculate IRRs and CIs for the effect size of interest, so these are not displayed in the figure. Furthermore, we exclude the estimate of the Brady Act from Gius (2015a) because the estimate does not meet our criteria for inclusion. The Swanson et al. (2016) estimate in the figure is the change from before and after the NICS reporting requirements for legally disqualified individuals relative to the change for nonlegally disqualified individuals.

Incidence Rate Ratios Associated with the Effect of Background Checks on Violent Crime How to read this chart This forest plot shows estimates of how this policy affects this outcome, based on the evidence in the studies examined. In particular, the graphic shows the standardized effect sizes (or IRRs) and their 95-percent CIs for each outcome. An effect size of 1.00 indicates that, after a state passes the law, we would expect the outcome (e.g., suicide or firearm suicide) to be unaffected. An effect size of less than 1.00 indicates that the law appears to reduce the outcome. For example, if the effect size were 0.92, we would expect the rate of the outcome to fall to 0.92 times the rate prior to passage of the law. Conversely, an effect size of more than 1.00 indicates that the law appears to increase the outcome by a factor equivalent to the effect size value. When the CIs do not include the value of 1.00, the estimated effect is statistically significant at p < 0.05. Study, by Policy Outcome Measure Effect Size (IRR) [95% CI] NOTE: The study model in La Valle (2013) includes a one-year lag of the dependent variable, so the effect sizes from this study are not directly comparable with others in this figure. IRR values marked with empty circles indicate that we identified concerns with the study's methodology, and these concerns are described in the text above. Filled circles indicate that we identified no significant methodological concerns. An arrow indicates that a confidence interval extends beyond the plotted area. IPH = intimate partner homicide.

Conclusions

Homicides and violent crime. We identified nine qualifying studies providing evidence on the effects of background checks, or some component of background checks, on violent crime. Six of these studies provided an overall effect of either dealer background checks or private-seller background checks on total homicide rates, although three of these estimated effects were partially confounded with the effect of waiting periods that were simultaneously introduced in many states when the Brady Act was passed. All six studies found those effects to be uncertain: the analyses of effects on those aged 21 or older in Ludwig and Cook (2000), Monroe (2008), and Luca, Malhotra, and Poliquin (2017); the Brady Act effect in La Valle (2013); the state dealer background check effect in Hepburn et al. (2004); and the private-seller background check effect in Lott (2010). One additional study (Zeoli et al., 2018) found uncertain effects of comprehensive background checks and point-of-contact background checks on intimate partner homicide rates.

Three background check component analyses identified significant effects indicating that mental illness checks, restraining order checks, or fugitive status checks reduced violent crime specific to homicides (Sen and Panjamapirom, 2012). A fourth component analysis found that mental illness checks significantly reduced violent crime arrests (Swanson et al., 2016). A component analysis of misdemeanor checks found that they had uncertain effects on homicides, while "other miscellaneous checks" had a suggestive effect consistent with increases in homicides (Sen and Panjamapirom, 2012).

The cumulative evidence is puzzling, as overall effects of background checks appear to be uncertain, but some components of background checks appear to significantly reduce homicides or violent crime. Because the studies examining component effects of background checks generally suffer from more-noted weaknesses, we conclude that available studies provide inconclusive evidence for the effect of background checks on violent crime and total homicide rates.

Firearm homicides. We identified nine qualifying studies that provided estimates for the effects of background checks, or some component of background checks, on firearm homicide rates. Six studies examined the overall effect of dealer background checks on firearm homicide rates: Two used large independent data sets and found significant effects indicating that dealer background checks reduce firearm homicides (Gius, 2015a; Sen and Panjamapirom, 2012), one found significantly reduced rates of nonhandgun firearm homicides (Monroe, 2008), and three found uncertain effects for the relationship (Luca, Malhotra, and Poliquin, 2017; La Valle, 2013; Ludwig and Cook, 2000). Four studies examined the effect of private-seller background check policies. One analysis found significant effects consistent with private-seller checks increasing firearm homicides (Gius, 2015a), although these estimates became uncertain or significant in the opposite direction in different specifications. Another study found suggestive effects consistent with private-seller checks increasing firearm intimate partner homicides (Zeoli et al., 2018). Crifasi et al. (2018b) found that comprehensive background checks without permit-to-purchase requirements were associated with significant increases in firearm homicides in urban areas, whereas a study of the effects of repealing comprehensive background check policies (Kagawa et al., 2018) found uncertain effects of the policy change. Component analyses from a single study found significant effects indicating that restraining order and fugitive checks reduce firearm homicides (Sen and Panjamapirom, 2012). The analyses also found that mental illness adjudication checks have suggestive effects consistent with a reduction in firearm homicides, uncertain effects for misdemeanor checks, and a significant effect indicating that "miscellaneous checks" increase firearm homicides.

Considering these findings and an assessment of the relative strengths of the studies, we conclude that available studies provide moderate evidence that dealer background checks may reduce firearm homicides and inconclusive evidence for the effect of private-seller background checks on firearm homicides.

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