When she was seven, my daughter wrote a letter to Santa Claus saying, “Dear Santa, I know you don’t exist; however, just in case I’m wrong, here’s what I want . . .”

Keeping this in mind, I don’t believe anyone is trying to unseat Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. However, just in case I’m wrong, this is how it could happen.

Although many Liberals believe that Ignatieff will not lead them back to power, they aren’t planning to try to dump him before the next election. But there is a magic number circulating among Liberals these days: 25 per cent. If their party sinks to this number in the polls, then all bets are off.

Liberals are resigned to another defeat, as long as the Conservatives don’t win a majority government. But if their party sits at 25 per cent, there is a chance of Prime Minister Stephen Harper winning a majority, which would keep the Liberals out of government for at least another four years. This scares many of them because Liberals out of power are like fish out of water. If they perceive that Harper can get a majority, the Grits would like to get rid of Ignatieff, regroup around a new leader and go to the polls trying to defeat the Conservatives.

But why don’t they get rid of Ignatieff now? Are they afraid of another split? Not at all. Ignatieff is pretty much isolated in the caucus, but there are two reasons for keeping him on: First, they already changed horses in midstream when they dumped Stéphane Dion — and they ended up with Ignatieff. Second, changing the leader before an election would mean placing the party in the hands of Bob Rae, and this doesn’t sit well with many MPs.

Many Liberals would like to turn the page altogether, and they don’t see Rae as part of the future of the Liberal party. A change of leader before an election would be Rae’s only chance to become leader. In fact, if the Liberals go to the polls with Ignatieff, it means that the next leadership convention will take place two or three years down the road and Rae, who is now 62, would be out of the race because the Liberals would be looking for younger candidates.

So the Liberals are already looking beyond Ignatieff and Rae.

In talking to Liberals these days, four names keep coming up as potential younger candidates: Dominic LeBlanc (42), Martin Cauchon (48), David McGuinty (50) and Justin Trudeau (36), whose activities are being followed very closely by many Liberals, garnering him both respect and jealousy.

Some say that Martha Hall Findlay will also be around again, while Siobhan Coady, a Member of Parliament from Newfoundland, is also gaining a lot of respect lately among her colleagues. Some Liberals, however, still hope to convince Frank McKenna, who is always the best candidate they will never have, or Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, who is by far preferred to his brother David.

What about the Conservatives and Harper?

The present situation is the best for them as long as Harper can find a way to deal effectively with the Liberal mudslinging that threatens to hold him down to another minority government. I assume he has no appetite for another minority and more years of dealing with a dysfunctional Parliament; many in his caucus might feel the same way.

Harper knows by now that doing a good job with the economy and other important issues is not enough to win a majority — Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin were both forced out, respectively by fellow Liberals and by the voters, at a time when the economy was booming. It was the tarnished image of their brand that eventually squeezed them out.

Liberals know that this strategy works, since it worked against them and it seems to be working now. Otherwise, how do you explain that a government that is dealing properly with serious economic problems and facing an official opposition that is in complete disarray is still unable to rise above the mid-30s in the polls?

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

If Harper finds a way to stabilize and improve the Conservative brand, he will lead a majority government after the next federal election. For now, with Ignatieff leading the opposition, it seems that Harper has enough time to find that balance, provided the Liberal leader doesn’t hit the magic, or tragic, number of 25 per cent. And, considering the latest polls, this may happen sooner than some people think.

Angelo Persichilli is the political editor of Corriere Canadese. His column appears Sunday.

Read more about: