John Fay

jfay@enquirer.com

Today is tender day. It's the day teams must tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players or let them walk as free agents.

This day gives you an annual lesson in Baseball Economics 101: Arbitration drives up payrolls faster than Billy Hamilton gets down the line to first base.

The Reds have nine arb-eligible players: Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey, Logan Ondrusek, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco.

All but Heisey and Ondrusek are locks to be tendered contracts. I think Heisey will be tendered; I think Ondrusek won't. We'll know by the midnight deadline or sooner.

What we know right now is arbitration is going to push the Reds' payroll up significantly. Players win in arbitration -- even if they lose. Consider what the nine players made this year and what mlbtraderumors.com estimates they'll make in 2015:

Latos -- $7.25 million --- $8.4 million

Leake -- $5.925 million --- $9.5 million

Simon -- $1.5 million --- $5.1 million

Heisey -- $1.76 million --- $2.2 million

Ondrusek -- $1.35 million --- $2.3 million

Chapman -- $5.0 million --- $8.3 million

Cozart -- $600,000 --- $2.3 million

Frazier -- $600,000 --- $4.6 million

Mesoraco -- $525,000 --- $2.8 million

So those nine made a combined $24.51 million in 2014. They'll make $45.5 million or so in 2015. That's a $21 million bump. Even if they let both Heisey and Ondrusek walk, it's still a $16.5 million hike.

The Reds already have $75.5 million committed to 10 players for 2015. That puts the payroll at $120 million for 19 players. It was a record $114 million in 2014. Attendance was slightly down from 2013 to '14.

That's why the Reds are not shopping for top-shelf free agents.

Again, arbitration is a great driver of salaries. Leake is projected to make $9.5 million to Johnny Cueto's $10 million. That shows the value of signing players before the reach arbitration and free agency, which, of course, is risky.

I still think the Reds will find a way to bring in a bat for left field. That's another reason a Yoenis Cespedes-for-Leake trade makes sense from the Reds' standpoint. Cespedes is due to make $10.5 million, so his salary and Leake's are close.