Nobody saw it coming last year. In fact, I could find only a couple of other analysts aside from myself that predicted before last season that the eventual Super Bowl champion would even make the playoffs, let alone hoist the Lombardi Trophy. It made sense why: the Philadelphia Eagles were coming off just a 7-9 campaign.

Overnight success stories like the Eagles are fairly common in the NFL, though. The ’99 Rams and ’01 Patriots are the most obvious examples (each won 4 and 5 games respectively the season before), but plenty of other teams, like the ’03 Panthers, ’07 Giants, ’09 Saints, and ’15 Panthers, have also made surprising runs to the Super Bowl after unremarkable seasons the year prior.

There’s one team ready to emerge out of relative anonymity and contend for a title in 2018: the Houston Texans. Here are three reasons why.

1. Houston’s two most valuable players — Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt — will return after missing most of 2017

Let’s start with the most obvious reason why the Texans are poised to rebound: better health. Arguably no other team in the NFL last season was as decimated by injuries, as Houston lost its most important players on each side of the ball and finished 29th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost metric (i.e. it lost the fourth-most starters due to injury).

As I said in my most recent article, the loss of Watson was particularly catastrophic. The Texans literally went from having the highest scoring offense in the NFL (34.6 points per game) with their star rookie to the lowest (13.0) without him. But upon reflection, Watt’s absence was just as impactful. After the three-time DPOY went down in Week 5, Houston’s defense sunk to 31st in Weighted DVOA.

Both Watson and Watt are reportedly back at full-strength. And while Watt’s recent injury history (he has missed 24 games over the past two years) means he is no guarantee to return to his dominant self, I’m bullish on Watson. Before his season-ending ACL surgery, the former Clemson star was in the midst of an MVP season, as he was leading the NFL in touchdown passes (19) and Total QBR (81.3) at the time of his injury. Not bad for a quarterback who slid in the draft due to accuracy and decision-making concerns.

Last year’s Eagles were able to transform into an NFL heavyweight thanks to dramatically improved play from Carson Wentz. Watson, however, didn’t take nearly as long to adjust successfully to the NFL. If he simply picks up where he left off — let alone takes a step forward — Houston’s offense, which features one of the better receiving corps in the NFL with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, will be one of the most explosive in the NFL.

2. Projected to have easiest strength of schedule in NFL

The best part about finishing in last place is that it allows you to play other bottom-feeders the following season. Not only will the Texans play the Browns and Broncos, but they’ll square off against the AFC East, which features three teams (Miami, New York, and Buffalo) likely to finish below .500.

Overall, ESPN’s Football Power Index projects that Houston will have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that this bodes unbelievably well for the Texans. For reference, the Eagles and Jaguars — who each made their respective conference championships last season after missing the playoffs the year before — benefitted from having the 24th and 32nd hardest schedules in the league.

In short, the Texans have a clear edge in the AFC South over the Jaguars, their top divisional foe, due to a weaker slate of opponents.

3. Defense will be significantly better after adding FS Tyrann Mathieu and CB Aaron Colvin

So I’ve discussed how Deshaun Watson’s return, combined with an easy schedule, will reignite a Texans offense that was one of the league’s most prolific scoring units with him on the field. But I also mentioned that Watt’s return alone won’t necessarily improve Houston’s defense.

Fortunately, though, the Texans made a couple of significant defensive acquisitions that should immediately turn around their primary weakness: defending the pass. Last year, Houston allowed the third most yards per pass attempt (7.6) in the NFL, so the front office went out this offseason and made a big splash by signing former Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu, a former Pro Bowler who returned to form late last season after an ACL injury in 2016. They also made an underrated addition by bringing in Jaguars cornerback Aaron Colvin, who didn’t surrender a single touchdown in 2017 despite having 62 passes thrown his way.

Houston is only one year removed from finishing with a top-three defense in the NFL. And not only will Mathieu and Colvin significantly impact the Texans’ previously poor secondary, but I expect their defense to receive a further boost from the returns of Watt and Whitney Mercilius (Houston’s starting outside linebacker who also missed most of last season due to injury), who will each join Jadeveon Clowney (two-time Pro Bowler, 9.5 sacks in 2017) to form one of the most terrifying defensive fronts in football.

The Texans still have one major concern that they didn’t necessarily take care of in the offseason. Their offensive line, which allowed the 2nd highest sack percentage in the league last year, only added marginal players like tackle Seantrel Henderson and guard Zach Fulton to help ensure that Watson won’t have defenses constantly bearing down on him.

Watson, however, was still able to perform exceptionally well last year despite having poor protection, which is a testament to how high the ceiling is for Houston’s franchise quarterback. Having him back healthy this year will be a treat for fans and fantasy owners alike, but what people seem to be overlooking is how a variety of other factors — an easy schedule and revamped defense being the two main ones — project to put the Texans in a terrific position to take advantage of a conference short on serious contenders and make a deep postseason run in 2018.

Who knows: they may even supplant Tom Brady and company by becoming the first team since those ’01 Pats to play in the Super Bowl after winning fewer than six games the year prior.

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