If he rips up the Iran nuclear deal, America’s relationship with Europe will also be irreparably damaged

Unless he experiences a sudden, unexpected change of heart, Donald Trump will reactivate US sanctions on Iran next week and, by doing so, attempt to wreck the west’s landmark 2015 nuclear agreement with Tehran. The likely negative consequences of Trump’s decision, if confirmed, are wide-ranging and extremely serious.

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The full or partial restoration of two sets of unilateral, pre-2015 American banking, financial and other sanctions would significantly undermine the moderate leadership of Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani. Before his landslide re-election victory last year, Rouhani promised voters much-needed economic renewal in exchange for maintaining the nuclear-related curbs. Now his hardline opponents are poised to strike.

Revealed: Trump team hired spy firm for ‘dirty ops’ on Iran arms deal Read more

The destabilising of Iran, consequent on what would be seen there as an overt act of American aggression, could trigger a broader destabilisation of the Middle East. Predominantly Shia, Persian Iran is engaged in a fierce contest for power and influence with the Sunni Arab world, led by Saudi Arabia. If Trump, allied with Riyadh and Cairo, goes on the offensive, this rivalry may escalate as Iran inevitably reacts – with unforeseeable ramifications in places such as Yemen and Bahrain.

One concern is that Iran’s clerical establishment, led by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will revive a nuclear weapons research programme that, according to the Bush administration and the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, ceased in 2003. This would produce the very result Trump ostensibly seeks to avoid. This, in turn, could spark a regional nuclear weapons race with the Saudis and others.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has long been lobbying Trump to end US adherence to the deal. Last week, he attempted to show that Iran was lying by unveiling a cache of stolen documents. Independent experts found nothing new in Netanyahu’s presentation. The IAEA, which has broad inspection rights, has verified 10 times, most recently in February, that Iran is in full compliance. But Trump hailed his ally’s PR stunt, with suspicious speed, as “proof” of Iranian cheating.

As we reveal today, there have also been shockingly underhand efforts in the US to discredit key public officials associated with forging the deal. The alleged involvement of Trump aides in a privately run, Israeli-linked “dirty ops campaign” warrants immediate investigation. It recalls claims that Trump associates colluded with Russia to “dig up dirt” on Hillary Clinton before the 2016 presidential election.

Leading figures in Israeli intelligence have warned Netanyahu that his aggressive stance does not serve his country’s best interests. Last week, Israeli forces again reportedly bombed Iranian targets inside Syria. Such confrontations are becoming regular occurrences. There is a clear danger, if tensions escalate further, that Israel could be sucked into an unwinnable, three-front war with Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Shia militias, the Assad regime, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas in Palestine.

At the same time, it is surely not to Israel’s advantage to continue to exaggerate the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran when Israel itself possesses an estimated 200 nuclear warheads, has never subscribed (unlike Iran) to the non-proliferation treaty, and does not allow IAEA inspections. Sooner or later, Israel will be called to account for this double standard.

For its part, Iran says the US has failed to keep faith with the spirit and letter of the 2015 agreement, arguing that promised economic and financial relief has not materialised. Leading European banks still refuse to do business there, chilled by fear of American displeasure. Trump’s Muslim travel ban, targeting Iran, is another case in point.

All this illuminates a larger problem: Trump’s lack of respect for international law and multilateral conventions in general, such as the Paris climate change agreement. The Iran deal, signed by all five permanent members of the UN security council, plus Germany, was incorporated into international law by the UN. It is to all intents and purposes an international treaty. Yet Trump is poised unilaterally to abrogate it, to the lasting detriment of America’s standing in the world.

The harm a Trump decision to scupper the Iran deal would do to US relations with its European partners, all of whom are adamant in its defence, is incalculable. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, made a personal appeal to Trump during his recent Washington visit and was crudely rebuffed. The same fate befell Germany’s Angela Merkel. There is scant reason to believe any last-minute British intervention will fare better. A permanent rift is opening.

There is no doubt that Iran’s actions in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere are cause for legitimate western concern, as is its expanding ballistic missile programme. Its human rights record is dreadful – witness its inexcusable treatment of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and other dual citizenship British nationals. But these are separate problems.

There is no evidence that Iran is cheating on the nuclear deal. It remains a notable diplomatic achievement. It is essential that it is preserved intact – and built upon. Ultimately, this is about much more than nuclear proliferation. It is about the credibility, unity – and common sense – of the western democracies in jointly managing the challenges thrown up by a dangerous world.