Webber, an attorney, is one of the most conservative members of the New Jersey Assembly. | AP Photo Poll finds race for Frelinghuysen seat a dead heat

Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic congressional candidate in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District — a traditionally red seat — is in a statistical dead heat with her Republican opponent, state Assemblyman Jay Webber, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The latest Monmouth University poll shows Sherrill leading Webber 40 percent to 38 percent among all potential voters — a demographic defined as those who have voted since 2010 or are newly registered.


The 2-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for all potential voters. Sherrill’s advantage increases slightly when two “likely voter“ models are factored in.

In the traditional midterm likely-voter model, Sherrill leads Webber 44 percent to 40 percent — still within the margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points among likely voters. Using a model with a Democratic turnout surge, her lead expands to 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent.

“Right now this race is more about underlying partisan enthusiasm than it is about either of the two major party candidates because, to be frank, most voters don’t know much about either one of them,” Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray said in a statement that accompanied the poll results. “There is still a lot of room for movement in this race with the high number of undecided voters and low level of knowledge about the candidates.”

Undecided respondents made up 20 percent of all potential voters and 15 percent of likely voters in the poll.

The northern New Jersey seat has been held by Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen for 24 years. Frelinghuysen, chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, announced in January that he would not seek reelection after it became clear he would have to run the first competitive general election campaign of his career. The district had been so safe for Frelinghuysen that in 2000, Michael Moore tried to run a ficus tree against him to highlight the lack of competition.

Sherrill, a Montclair resident, is a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor. Webber, an attorney, is one of the most conservative members of the New Jersey Assembly.

The wealthy district is likely to be hit hard by the new federal tax law’s limitation on how much residents can deduct on their state and local taxes. Still, its voters are split on the new law, H.R. 1 (115), with 40 percent approving of it and 43 percent disapproving. A plurality — 39 percent — expect their taxes will increase under the new law, while 19 percent think they’ll go down. Another 32 percent think their taxes will stay the same, the Monmouth poll found.

“The recently passed tax reform bill may be the Trump presidency’s biggest legislative accomplishment to date, but it doesn’t play well in a district where the SALT cap is likely to hit hard,” Murray said. “You wonder whether Sherrill would be doing even better if Frelinghuysen had chosen to run again, since it would have been harder for a party leader to separate himself from the Republican plan despite his own vote against it.”

The district’s voters are also split on President Donald Trump’s job performance, with 47 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving. But 73 percent of voters who say they approve of Trump say it’s important for them to vote for a congressional candidate to register their feelings about the president, while 56 percent of his supporters say the same. Trump carried the district by less than 1 percentage point over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Meanwhile, 40 percent of those questioned say they want to see Republicans in control of Congress, while 38 percent want Democrats in charge. Voters in the district also have slightly more favorable attitudes toward the GOP than toward the Democratic Party.

“Many voters in this district maintain a lifelong affiliation with the Republican Party,” Murray said. “It’s just a different type of Republican Party than the one they see in control in Washington today.”

The Monmouth poll of 406 voters in the 11th District was conducted from June 22 to June 25.