Sometimes accused of political dithering, John Tory has finally made a decision about entering the 2014 Toronto mayoral race.

In classic Tory style, though, what he’s decided is to wait until next February before making a final decision on whether to challenge Mayor Rob Ford and NDP MP Olivia Chow in the next election.

Tory’s nondecisive decision, which comes as the One Year Countdown to the Oct. 27, 2014, election begins, is muddying the campaign plans of every potential mayoral candidate except Ford, tying up fundraising and efforts to recruit key campaign team leaders.

It is normal for serious campaigning to start a year before the election, with candidates unofficially lining up campaign managers and promises of financial donations.

But this year many major fundraisers and veteran managers are telling other candidates they won’t commit their time or money until they know officially what Tory, a popular radio talk-show host and former Ontario Conservative leader, is doing.

Official nominations for mayor are accepted from Jan. 2 to Sept. 12. No one can raise or spend any campaign money without becoming an official candidate.

Both Ford and Chow have been on the campaign trail — unofficially, of course — for months. And David Soknacki, a former conservative city councillor, announced in September he plans to run for mayor.

If Tory does enter, he would pose a serious threat to both Ford and Chow, the current perceived front-runner. His candidacy would also likely cripple any victory hopes of other possible challengers, including councillors Karen Stintz, Shelley Carroll, Denzil Minnan-Wong, Michael Thompson and Adam Vaughan. All have considered running.

Tory “won’t make an announcement until February,” says a close long-time friend and adviser who has met often with Tory in recent weeks and spent time with him at his family cottage over the summer.

If he does opt to take on Ford and Chow, Tory would quit his job at CFRB in February and officially launch his campaign in March.

“John’s in a much better head space,” the adviser said, commenting on Tory’s mixed electoral record, which has seen him lose both his 2003 bid to become Toronto mayor and the 2007 provincial election when he was leader of the Ontario Conservatives.

“He views his political life as unfinished and at this stage would very seriously like to do it (run for mayor),” the friend added.

Tory has been advised to resist bowing to pressure and declaring his intentions soon.

“He already has a political platform with his radio show. Why give it up so soon? Why set the Fords (Rob and his brother councillor Doug Ford) up to take shots at him now? Instead, let’s do something when it makes sense.”

In the meantime, Tory’s friends are working behind the scenes, trying to settle on 3-4 key election platform issues that he would run on.

Recent polls show a Ford-Chow-Tory race would be close, with Chow coming out ahead and Ford and Tory bunched closely behind her. The same polls show Ford’s support is solid, with a core backing of about 30 per cent, regardless of who he might face.

Tory would receive significant support from centre and centre-right voters, many of whom voted for Ford in the 2010 election, but who now feel the mayor is an embarrassment and are dismayed by the scandals swirling around him.

Tory would also draw some soft progressive and Liberal support away from Chow, who is seen as the only serious contender from the political left. Veteran consultant John Laschinger is expected to manage Chow’s campaign and key backers, such as Joe Cressy, who ran her federal campaign, are on board.

But a Tory candidacy would suck all the oxygen — money, profile, volunteers — out of campaigns by Stintz, Carroll, Vaughan and Soknacki.

Stintz’s campaign, for example, has gone into virtual hibernation waiting for Tory’s decision. Insiders say she has been hoping Don Guy, who ran the successful campaigns for the McGuinty Liberals, might be her campaign manager. But Guy apparently is waiting to see what Tory does before committing.

Carroll declined recently to say if she is in or out, but she’s expected to abandon her efforts. “Respectfully, even Olivia is not clarifying to date,” she said on Twitter. “It’s Rose Garden Season, baby.”

Also, Tory would appeal to the centre-right voters who Soknacki hopes to attract. But Soknacki, who wants to get rid of Ford, is expected to stay in the race regardless of what Tory does. A successful businessman, he will finance his campaign initially out of his own pocket.

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With one year to go before voting day, Tory is indeed the only person whose decision to enter the race — or not — can radically alter the course of the coming campaign.

But for voters and candidates alike, the wait for John Tory to decide must continue.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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