The Toronto region is expected to create more than half a million jobs in the next five years, but some will be low-paying, temporary or contract jobs without benefits, warns a new report from the Toronto Region Board of Trade and United Way Toronto.

“There are downward pressures on the labour market, which are effectively displacing youth and newcomers from those positions, which they have traditionally held,” according to Closing the Prosperity Gap for a Liveable City Region, to be released on Wednesday.

“The large number of applicants for low-paying and entry-level positions is remarkable,” said the report, the final installment of the board’s Think Twice, Vote Once series tied to this year’s elections.

“As the number of middle income jobs has continued to decline, a bifurcated labour market of high-income jobs and low-income service jobs is becoming the norm.”

The report forecasts 271,721 new jobs, along with 248,160 expected retirements, from 2014 to 2019, requiring people to fill 519,881 positions.

The manufacturing sector is expected to shed the largest number of jobs while the professional, scientific and technical services sectors are expected to gain the most, followed by health and social services.

This reflects an economy that has been steadily moving away from resources and manufacturing, which has led to company re-organizations and closures. Instead, there has been growth in temporary or contract positions, leading to a growing prosperity gap.

“It’s a persistent and pernicious problem that we have,” said Susan McIsaac, president and CEO of the United Way. “We have these geographic gaps between neighbourhoods that are thriving and those that are not, and a widening gap on the quality of jobs.”

The report crunches labour market data and makes projections about which specific jobs will be in the greatest demand through 2019 in the Greater Toronto Area. It lists the top 100 in-demand jobs, and also breaks down forecasted jobs in York, Durham, Halton and Peel regions.

Across all the regions including Toronto, retail salespersons lead the list, followed by financial auditors and accountants, administrative assistants, and retail and wholesale trade managers, with elementary and kindergarten teachers rounding out the top five.

However, the report cautions that the data merely reflects the demand side of the labour market, and does not look at the supply side, such as those qualified to work in each occupation.

For instance, even though nearly 7,000 elementary and kindergarten teachers will be needed both to replace retiring teachers and fill new positions, that number doesn’t reflect anecdotal evidence that the Toronto region already has an oversupply of teachers.

“This means it may still prove challenging to find employment as a teacher within the Toronto region,” the report says, acknowledging it may not be wise to encourage current students to pursue that path.

Occupations in demand include registered nurses, doctors, lawyers, and senior managers in financial services, as well as food counter staff, caretakers, cleaners and cashiers. Middle-income jobs include office workers, sales managers and human resource professionals.

McIsaac said the job forecast is hopeful, but the bigger question is whether it will create opportunity for all, including youth and newcomers, two groups that have higher rates of unemployment.

“It’s good that we have new jobs on the horizon. I’m hoping in those numbers will be some permanent, full-time, secure jobs, and many of those opportunities will be available to some in the community who are the most vulnerable,” she said.

“Sometimes we see an economic burst and lift, but it’s not a lift for everybody,” she said.

But McIsaac pointed to innovative programs, often started at the grass roots with help from academic institutions, to help people get that first job. She pointed to a project in the Weston-Mount Dennis area, where groups are working to help local youth get ready for a paid internship at Irving Tissue.

Anne Sado, who chairs the board of trade’s policy and advocacy committee, believes the economy is still struggling, but noted different targeted programs are helping create jobs.

She pointed to the food and beverage cluster in Toronto, where George Brown College, which Sado leads as president, has a research studio working with industry partners and the city’s economic development office. Since 2009, the program has helped 19 companies get 49 products to market.

Similarly, bridging programs that help new immigrants get settled in their fields or related fields are also important. Sado cited a program for construction managers, where newcomers who might have been architects or civil engineers in other countries can adapt their skills and find work here.

“There is a broad spectrum of types of careers and skills needed to make a city region work,” said Sado.

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“As a young person thinking of educational options, you have to think about where your talents and interests are, and that has to be part of the equation,” she said. “Having this kind of information is helpful because it helps them understand what the opportunities are.”

Both McIsaac and Sado urged candidates for municipal office to consider the role government can play in helping educational institutions and the private sector create jobs.

“I feel like the moment is now,” McIsaac said. “I feel there are unusual partnerships that have evolved and emerged, so how do we take those models and scale them up?

“And how do we engage our political leaders to work with us on it?”