A barrel of oil is currently trading at just over three heads of cauliflower. - Paul Fairie, Political Scientist, University of Calgary, Jan. 16

OTTAWA - Paul Fairie was making a good joke when he put that out on Twitter Saturday and he also neatly summed up the big problem facing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet as they meet this week in New Brunswick to begin drafting the first Liberal budget since Ralph Goodale presented one to the House of Commons in 2005.

Oil prices have crashed, setting off a cascade of effects that includes spiking jobless claims; rising consumer bankruptcies; and a plunging loonie.

That in turn has caused the price of produce, fruit and other food we import from the U.S. to rapidly rise, eclipsing the bonus drivers are getting from falling pump prices.

A head of cauliflower was selling somewhere in Canada last week for $7 (although that may because of a shortage of cauliflower and not necessarily the low loonie) while a barrel of Western Canadian Select Oil was trading around $21, light years away from from its record high of US$114 a barrel as recently as June, 2014.

And prices of produce could spike even higher if Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz lowers interest rates Wednesday.

Lots of analysts are betting Poloz will take the overnight rate down to 0.25% — matching the all-time record low hit during the 2008-09 fiscal crisis — though many of those same analysts think Poloz would be doing more harm than good to the economy if he did that precisely because it won’t do a thing to boost economic activity and will only drive the loonie down further.

“Interest rates are low already,” Jay Mayers, an economist who heads the industry lobby group Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, told Bloomberg. “A little bit of dollar stability would be better.”

If a Poloz rate cut harms the economy, there will be even greater pressure on Finance Minister Bill Morneau in his first budget.

The rapidly rising cost-of-living is top of mind for opposition leader Rona Ambrose, the interim leader of the federal Conservatives. She wants Trudeau to help families struggling with high grocery bills by reversing his commitment to end income-splitting for parents with children.

There’s no way Trudeau will reverse himself on income splitting but there are other ways he could quickly put money in the pockets of struggling consumers.

Mike Moffatt, an economist at Western University in London, Ont. — who helped advise the Liberals on their election platform — suggests sending out an extra GST rebate cheque this year. Right now, GST rebates are paid to lower-income families in quarterly instalments.

Moffatt said Ottawa could send out an extra cheque this spring — give it some fancy name like a “Price Stability Benefit” or something — and that would kill two birds with one stone. It would help struggling families and boost the economy since families who get those rebates are certain to spend all of it.

Armine Yalnizyan, an economist with the left-leaning Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said reforms to our employment insurance system is another quick, effective fix. Plus: enriching EI payouts and speeding up EI qualifying periods amounts to a spending program that only targets regions of the country where it is needed most and the extra spending dries up as soon as more jobs are created and workers can get off EI.

Poloz should hold off on a rate cut. And Morneau should focus on tax cuts, rebates, and EI reforms that help hurting consumers weather this crisis.