Tropical storm may strike Mexico later this week

A satellite image from the National Weather Service shows the location of a tropical disturbance Monday, Aug. 1, 2016. The image indicates a high probability that a cyclone will form by Saturday, Aug. 6. A satellite image from the National Weather Service shows the location of a tropical disturbance Monday, Aug. 1, 2016. The image indicates a high probability that a cyclone will form by Saturday, Aug. 6. Photo: National Weather Service Satellite Image Photo: National Weather Service Satellite Image Image 1 of / 62 Caption Close Tropical storm may strike Mexico later this week 1 / 62 Back to Gallery

A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea seems poised to become the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which is now in full swing.

Computer models suggest the storm will stay far south of Texas, likely making landfall near Mexico's Yucatan peninsula later this week.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane was en route to the disturbance which currently about 275 miles east of Jamaica, according to the National Hurricane Center. Should it become a tropical storm, it will named "Earl."

Already, the system is generating strong thunderstorms and packing winds up to 45 miles per hour as it churns west at about 25 miles per hour.

Early signs are pointing to an active Atlantic hurricane season as a result of warmer than normal ocean temperatures.

It got off to an early start when Hurricane Alex formed in January. The last hurricane to form in January was Hurricane Alice in 1955.

May and June saw quite a bit of tropical activity - Bonnie, Colin and Danielle - and then came to a screeching halt in July, a partial consequence of Saharan dust over the Atlantic that impeded hurricane development by sucking up moisture from the atmosphere that would otherwise serve as fuel for storms.

The dusty Saharan air has provided a fortunate counterbalance to warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures.

In fact, some meteorologists have said that this year's ocean heat content is significantly greater than in 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wreaked havoc along the Gulf Coast.

Still, a hurricane has not entered the Gulf of Mexico since 2013.