Ron Estes had 52 percent of the vote to 46 percent for Jason Thompson when the Associated Press called the race. | AP Photo GOP holds Kansas special election after scare from energized Democrats

Kansas state Treasurer Ron Estes held a heavily Republican House district for the GOP in a special election Tuesday, but Democrats lashing back against the Republican Party gave Estes a scare in the first major federal election of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Estes took 53 percent of the vote to Democrat James Thompson’s 46 percent in the race for Kansas’ southern 4th District. But just five months ago, Trump won the district by 27 percentage points, a sharp turnaround driven by an energized Democratic base looking to strike back against Trump — and Kansas’ unpopular Republican governor, Sam Brownback.


"We've sent a message that no Republican district is safe," Thompson said after his loss Tuesday night, adding that he will run for the seat again in 2018.

Estes’ victory came after national Republicans scrambled in the final week of the campaign to deny Thompson a shocking upset victory. After private polling showed Estes ahead by only a slim margin for such a reliably Republican district, the NRCC launched a late TV ad bashing Thompson and backing Estes, followed by a flurry of big-name rescue efforts: House Speaker Paul Ryan sent out a fundraising pitch for Estes, Sen. Ted Cruz stumped in Wichita, and Vice President Mike Pence and Trump recorded robocalls sent to district Republicans urging them to vote on Tuesday.

A loss — in one of the 100 most Republican-leaning districts in the country, according to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index scores, which measure presidential-election performance against the national average — would have been devastating for the GOP and particularly for Trump, who already in his young presidency has had trouble wrangling lawmakers to vote for administration priorities like the repeal of Obamacare.

Even with Estes’ victory, winning majority support for tough votes in Congress could become even more difficult if more Republicans see a chance of danger in the 2018 elections, though Republicans have noted that special elections are unpredictable by nature.

Trump himself triggered the special election by naming then-Rep. Mike Pompeo as his CIA director.

“I would not say this is any kind of referendum on Donald Trump,” Kansas Republican Party chairman Kelly Arnold said pre-election.

Yet even before the results were in, Democrats claimed victory in defeat, noting how much Estes was underperforming typical Republicans in the district, how energized Democratic voters are, and that several upcoming special elections, not to mention the 2018 midterms, will happen on more friendly turf.

“I think the momentum we've seen here on the ground, and outpouring of support from Democrats across the country into races like this, is a good signs for Democrats nationally regardless of what happens tonight,” Thompson campaign manager Colin Curtis said before the election.

Thompson, at his election night party, blamed the late nationalization of the race for his defeat.

"Mr. Estes did not beat us," Thompson said. "It took a president of the United States, the vice president, the speaker of the House, a senator coming into our state, and a bunch of lies to try to drum up a vote."

Some Republicans blamed Estes for running a lackluster campaign. But many simply hailed the win as the only thing that mattered.

"Tonight, Republicans emerged victorious in the first contested special election of the 2018 cycle," NRCC chairman Steve Stivers said in the statement. "By electing Ron Estes, Kansas rejected the far-left policies of liberal activists and voted to keep delivering on the promises we made to the American people."

“A victory is a victory for us,” Arnold said before the results came in, adding: “Anything like a 10-point margin is a good margin. But I’m happy with a one-point margin.”

Still, Democrats took note of Estes' relatively small margin.

"Kansas’ 4th Congressional District is ruby red and should never have been on the table," DCCC communications director Meredith Kelly said in a statement. "This massive swing from the 2016 presidential results should set off alarm bells for House Republicans."