There is clear risk of a slower restart of Saudi Arabian oil production despite the optimistic guidance by Saudi Aramco, according to Rystad Energy.

There is clear risk of a slower restart of Saudi Arabian oil production despite the optimistic guidance by Saudi Aramco.

That’s according to Rystad Energy Chief Oil Market Analyst Bjornar Tonhaugen, who made the statement in a post published on Rystad’s website on Wednesday.

“In our view, there is a clear risk of a slower resumption towards full capacity,” Tonhaugen stated.

“Repairs to the damaged spheroids and stabilization towers involve, to our understanding, access to expertise and spare parts which would take time to procure,” he added.

Unless repairs happen much quicker than Rystad expects, the company estimates that the Abqaiq processing facility will only reach 90 percent capacity by mid-November, Tonhaugen revealed.

“The outage would then be reduced to 0.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) for the month of November at 5.2 MMbpd production. For now, we expect production to remain slightly below full capacity for December,” the Rystad representative continued.

Saudi Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser announced Tuesday that the company’s production capacity would be fully restored by the end of September.

On September 14, the company revealed that Saudi Aramco emergency crews contained fires at the company’s plants in Abqaiq and Khurais, “as a result of terrorist attacks with projectiles”. Saudi Aramco confirmed that these attacks resulted in a production suspension of 5.7 million barrels of crude oil per day.

To see analyst reaction on the attack, click here. To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com