Like a lot of New Yorkers, I’ve never bought a new car. I had never even talked to a new-car salesman until I accompanied my dad to buy a Toyota the other day. While I was walking around the dealership, though, I couldn’t believe just how cheap it has become to lease a new Camry. For less than $200 a month, or about half the price of a parking spot at many Manhattan garages, you can drive the basic model off the lot.

I assumed that this was a sign of an industry in desperation. Then Anthony Pratt, who runs forecasting for the auto-data firm Polk, told me that it was the exact opposite. New-car sales, which collapsed to less than 11 million in 2009, are expected to surpass 14 million this year. And forecasters believe that they will increase by around a million annually for the next couple of years. In 2015, we could eclipse 16 million vehicles sold, which is near the precrisis peak.

The industry’s buoyancy comes largely from pent-up demand. Many Americans are driving really, really old cars. The average passenger vehicle is now 11 years old — making this the oldest fleet ever — and the percentage being junked has been at near record lows. One manufacturer recently told me that he was selling parts that few cars previously lived long enough to need.

The cheap lease prices are built into this calculation. (Though the industry is also benefiting from recent restructuring and low interest rates.) Auto companies price their leases based partly on an estimation of a car’s residual value, or how much they think they can resell it for when the lease expires three years later. The auto industry, Pratt explained, is anticipating that in the next few years Americans, like my dad, will finally ditch their ancient cars and flood dealerships. Some may buy or lease new cars. Many others will buy preowned ones. But in order to have enough of those gently used vehicles ready by 2015, the auto companies need to push new ones into the market now. If Toyota is leasing a Camry for $200 a month, it shows its confidence that it can make a significant profit on the back end.