If those who don’t remember the past are doomed to repeat it, then my Democratic friends may be in for an unpleasant surprise next year.

They are virtually unanimous in the opinion that their candidate will trounce Donald Trump in the presidential election.

Of course, they were also virtually unanimous in that opinion in the 2016 presidential election.

The people at Moody’s Analytics have a different opinion. That market-analysis firm released its 2020 Presidential Election Model the other day. The model predicts the incumbent “would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout.”

The only way the Dems are likely to win, according to Moody’s, is to drive turnouts to match historic highs.

In that regard, it looks like the Dems are going to repeat the mistake of 2016: Picking a “safe” choice who turns out not to be so safe.

If they want my advice – which I’m sure they don’t – they should look instead to the 2008 race. The candidate they chose that year had something in common with one of the 12 candidates who was on that stage Tuesday:

Barack Obama grew up in Hawaii.

So, of course, did Tulsi Gabbard.

As a student of Hawaii, I would observe that it has some unique characteristics as an incubator of politicians.

The typical American may think of the islands as a peaceful melting spot where the locals congregate beneath the palms, listen to ukuleles and drink mai-tais.

In fact, it’s more a cauldron than a melting pot. The term “localism” first rose to prominence there. If you seek the definition, I invite you to show up with a surfboard at a highly localized surf spot like Makaha.

People who grow up on Oahu, as Obama and Gabbard did, need to learn how to get along with a million or so people of widely varying ethnicity crammed into a space about the size of Morris County - but surrounded by a two-mile-deep moat.

I suspect that’s how Obama developed his considerable charm and composure. The same goes for Gabbard.

During that debate she introduced a couple of concepts foreign to her fellow Democrats. One concerned the current dust-up in Syria.

The others all lamented Trump’s recent decision to pull American troops from the area near the Turkish border occupied by Kurdish forces. But only Gabbard had the temerity to ask why we intervened there in the first place.

“Donald Trump has the blood of the Kurds on his hand,” Gabbard said. “But so do many of the politicians in our country from both parties who have supported this ongoing regime-change war in Syria that started in 2011, along with many in the mainstream media, who have been championing and cheerleading this regime-change war.”

Of course, opposition to “regime change” was a hallmark of Trump’s 2016 campaign. Meanwhile Clinton, who was Secretary of State in 2011, was perhaps the most prominent proponent of deposing Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Gabbard’s criticism of the Democratic establishment’s foreign policy may not play well within party circles. But as a National Guard soldier who did two deployments in the Mideast, she is uniquely situated to give Trump fits on foreign policy.

Then there was her position on abortion. The typical Democratic candidate these days must express unconditional support to abortion rights – just as the typical Republican must express unconditional opposition.

Gabbard offered a view that might be more acceptable to voters, if not activists. After saying she supports the Roe v. Wade decision, she went on to occupy the middle ground.

“I do, however, think that there should be some restrictions in place,” she said. “I support codifying Roe v. Wade while making sure that, during the third trimester, abortion is not an option unless the life or severe health consequences of a woman are at risk.”

The 38-year-old Gabbard invokes these heresies with a calm, unflappable tone, while many of her elders go straight to the histrionics.

She has other advantages as well. Like Obama, she is of mixed race. She is of Samoan and American ancestry. She covers another base by being a Hindu, due to another aspect of the island’s heterodox nature too complicated to go into in this short space.

As I said, the Democrats don’t listen to me. But if they did, they’d ask themselves whether Gabbard may be the candidate most likely to inspire voters to get out to the polls on Election Day.

As for the current leader, former law professor Elizabeth Warren, I suspect the only thing she would inspire voters to do on Election Day is check the Netflix lineup.

All I can say to my Democrat friends is, best of luck.

The way things are going, you’ll need it.