Damian Lillard is no longer under-the-radar — he’s a legit superstar

If truth is fleeting in the NFL, it is considerably more enduring in the NBA, more ink pen than lead pencil. The NBA is the most predictable of the four major U.S. sports, the sport most dictated by skill compared to luck, high numbers of scores and possessions, none counting for a large percentage of the total score, sees the relative skill advantages accumulate over time — particularly in a seven-game playoff series. In the NBA surprises are fewer, we know what we know and it rarely changes.

In the same way that the best teams usually win in the NBA, the best players are generally a homogenous group with similar pedigrees, marked as stars of the future early in their teens. Check out this year’s MVP shortlist; aside from Steph Curry it is a concentration of players with no more than two years experience at NBA factory power colleges excluding LeBron James who went straight into the NBA from high school.

Surprises in the NBA are few, which makes them even more pleasant when they do present themselves. No surprise at the top end of the NBA has been bigger or sweeter than Damian Lillard’s ascension to the absolute elite of the NBA.

The days of the surprise packet college senior from a mid-major school making a splash in the NBA were thought to be gone forever. However that was before 22-year-old Weber State point guard Damian Lillard took aim at the NBA.

Hardly a high school All-American, Lillard had to transfer high schools because of lack of playing time and despite averaging 22.4 PPG and 5.2 APG his senior year was only rated a two-star prospect, out of five by evaluators at Rivals.com. Lillard received a total of five scholarship offers in total. Weber State was the first so that’s where he ended up.

Largely an anonymous college prospect heading into his fourth year at Weber State in the Big Sky Conference, Lillard emerged as one best players in the country averaging 24.5 points per game and finishing second in the nation in scoring with a True Shooting Percentage (TS%) of 62%. His rise from second round prospect to the most unlikely of lottery picks from Weber State, a school that had produced just two lottery picks in 34 years prior was one of the most fascinating subplots of the 2012 NBA Draft.

In a weak draft for point guards, Lillard was rated as the top prospect to play the one-spot. The Portland Trail Blazers were in desperate need of a floor general, and drafted Lillard at number six. Entering the league at 22 after four years of college, Lillard was perhaps the most NBA ready player from the 2012 Draft, however many talent evaluators questioned whether his advanced age lowered his developmental ceiling.

Lillard hit the ground running in Portland and has not stopped since. Joining a Trail Blazer team that had won 28 games the season prior, Lillard wasted no time in forming a dynamic duo out west with big man LaMarcus Aldridge. The Trail Blazers, buoyed by Lillard, were in playoff contention until a late season swoon saw them lose their final 13 games of the season to finish with 33 wins.

Lillard was an instant success, winning all six Rookie of the Month awards on the way to being unanimously voted Rookie Of The Year, joining Blake Griffin, David Robinson and Ralph Sampson as the only other unanimous winners. Lillard also joined Oscar Robertson and Allen Iverson as the only Rookie in history with at least 1500 points and 500 assists. His final stat line was 19.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 6.5 APG contributing to .088 Win Shares per 48 Minutes (WS/48) and a 1.9 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP).

Despite winning Rookie Of The Year, Lillard was still not considered an elite prospect. Many believed Lillard to be the beneficiary of a system and coach in Terry Stotts that played him 900 minutes more than the next highest rookie and allowed him to shoot almost 16 times per game despite converting at only 42.9%.

Both Lillard and the Trail Blazers entered the 2013-14 system with major question marks, however any remaining questions were quickly answered. Exploding out of the gates, the Trail Blazers — led by Lillard — jumped out to a 22-4 start as Damian Lillard was voted to the All-Star team. Finishing with 54 wins, the Trail Blazers returned to the post season to face the Houston Rockets in a series decided by Lillard’s iconic buzzer-beating, series ending, walk off three pointer.

Despite winning only one game in the next round against the San Antonio Spurs, the Blazers, behind their two All-Stars in Lillard and Aldridge had announced themselves as contenders in the stacked Western Conference. Lillard’s sophomore NBA campaign line: 20.7 PPG, 42.4% FG%, 3.5 RPG, 5.6 APG contributing to a jump in WS/48 of .157 and almost doubling his VORP from his rookie year to 3.4. Lillard’s Player Efficiency Rating increased from 16.45 as a rookie to 18.69 which ranked 13th among NBA point guards.

The point guard position is stacked in the NBA with names like Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Tony Parker, John Wall, Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving just to name a few. So despite making the All-Star team, leading his team to the playoffs averaging 22.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 6.5 APG whilst shooting 43.9% and hitting a playoff series winning buzzer-beater, a feat achieved only by Michael Jordan, John Stockton and Ralph Sampson, Damian Lillard was still not considered an elite point guard.

Most preseason point guard rankings listed the Trail Blazers star somewhere in the 7-10 range and anyone who tells you they considered him to be an MVP candidate is a deadset liar, but that is exactly what Damian Lillard is; a legitimate MVP candidate. Consider these numbers: 21.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.3 APG, 1.5 SPG while shooting 46.2% overall and 40.2% on three pointers for a 23-7 Trailblazers team that is second in the insanely loaded Western Conference.

Lillard’s advanced metrics are even more impressive, ranking amongst the very elite; second in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), third in VORP, fourth in Win Shares, third in Box Plus Minus, fifth in PER, fourth in Real Plus Minus (RPM). Driven by a significant uptick in shooting efficiency, particularly at the rim, improved assist percentage and rebound percentage, the Trailblazer’s star point guard trails only Steph Curry in TS% among players who’s Usage Percentage tops 25%.

Lillard doesn’t just make shots, he makes important shots. Since Lillard arrived in the NBA he has made 12 game tying or go ahead field goals in the last 15 seconds of games, the next best over that period is James Harden with eight. Lillard added three more of these in the last week in wins over the powerhouses the Spurs and Thunder topping 40 points in both games.

Lillard is the best player on a genuine title contending team. The Blazers have the 10th best offense in the league scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions and the third best defense allowing only 102.0 points per 100 possessions. Nine of the previous 10 NBA champions have had both offenses and defenses ranking inside the top ten in efficiency (points per 100 posessions). The only outlier being the 09-10 Lakers who’s offense was ranked 11th.

Sooner or later we need to simply believe what we see and forget Lillard came from Weber State, that he was 22 when he was drafted, lacked elite athleticism and remove the ladders of inference which distort our perspective and stop being surprised.

Damian Lillard is on a very short list of the best basketball players on the planet, pure and simple, no caveats.

Are you surprised? By now you shouldn’t be!