With the 2017 NFL regular season over and the playoffs ready to begin, now is the perfect time to look back at the season to see if there are any insights into Super Bowl 52. To do this I’m going to use our market on smarkets.com, as it gives the implied probability of any team winning the Super Bowl as the season progresses. The implied probabilities are determined by the actual trades executed between Smarkets users and therefore imply the knowledge of the market.

Top 4 Seeds

Prices from the Smarkets exchange give an implied probability in percentage

The top four seeds are the New England Patriots (1) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (2) in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles (1) and the Minnesota Vikings (2) in the NFC. The first striking point is that the Vikings and Eagles started as outsiders whereas the Patriots and Steelers have met their expectations for the season.

The Patriots have been favourite since the pre-season, however their 42–27 loss to the Chiefs in week 1 caused the market to lose a little confidence. This relative lack of confidence persisted till the week 15, 27-24 win over the second seed Steelers, which firmly cemented the Patriots as the favourite. This change in confidence is relative though, as the market has had almost twice the implied probability of the Steelers throughout the season.

The other teams to note are the Vikings and Eagles, who the market had little confidence in at the start of the season. The Vikings’ 24–7 win over the Rams in week 11 followed by the 14–9 win over the Falcons in week 13 look to be the victories that cemented their playoff eligibility. Much like New England, Minnesota look to be in form with the market confidence growing week by week.

The Eagles came alive in the mid-season with victories over the Broncos (51–23, week 9) and Cowboys (27–9, week 11). While there is a lot of uncertainty in the early season data, the lack of confidence is likely down to the quarterback Carson Wentz’s lack of experience. The belief in Wentz (and the Eagles) was all undone in week 14 when he suffered a torn ACL in the victory against the Rams. As is noted below, the market now has less confidence in the Eagles, with Nick Foles at QB, than the next two NFC playoff teams.

AFC Playoff Picture

The top 6 seeds in the AFC are the Patriots (1), Steelers (2), Jaguars (3), Chiefs (4), Titans (5) and Bills (6). The impressive team here are the Bills, for who this is their first playoff run in 17 seasons. This is likely why the market has had so little confidence throughout the season.

Other than the Patriots there hasn’t been as much movement in the AFC as in the NFC. The biggest single change was the week 11 12–9 loss suffered by the Chiefs against the Giants.

NFC Playoff Picture

The top 6 seeds in the NFC are the Eagles (1), Vikings (2), Rams (3), Saints (4), Panthers (5) and Falcons (6). Clearly the market doesn’t see it this way with the Vikings, Rams, and Saints all favoured over the Eagles — this likely due to the Carson Wentz injury suffered in week 14.

The other interesting team are last years runners up, the Atlanta Falcons. The market started with low confidence that started to build, up until the 23–17, week 4, loss to the Bills. Surprisingly after the 34–20, week 12, win over the Buccaneers the market confidence decreased. This was likely due to the main conference rival, the Panthers looking like the comfortable conference winner. Then the loss to the Saints, their other conference rival, in week 16 (23–13) cemented the market’s view against the Falcons.

Summary

Traders on Smarkets believe that the most likely teams to make Super Bowl 52 are the New England Patriots and the Minnesota Vikings, with the Patriots winning for the second year in a row and sixth time overall. The live market chart is available here, if you want to follow as the playoffs progress, and may now tell a different story.

On a personal note, I’m a Packers fan though, so… next year!