I fear a dangerous flaw in the analysis here in that it doesn't account for the completely new effects of full globalization, natural resource limits, and the nature of empowered human greed.



These effects include a vast complex of ever-tightening interdependence, the drying up of "new" markets and the overburdening of this planet's ability to provide the raw resources and waste management.



This means a strong cross-coupling between human economics, and the natural world -- chemically, biologically, and climatically.



This also provides an international legal and economic complex that can be manipulated to some extent to limit wealth into very few hands by the production of vaporware money pumped around numerous time with interest gaining on it, and that interest used to purchase actual material wealth which is taken out of the system. The cost of such dealings used to be the risk taken, but now the "too big to fail" conglomerate of wealth extorts the entire populous to share the burden of evermore irresponsible high-risk taking.



The consequences of all this are very clear:



1 - We are reaching, perhaps have reached, an effectively closed system, and per force, are acting as if we believed in perpetual motion machines.



2 - The implicit entropy in the system comes not as just a simple heat death, but is multiplied by the vast interdependence into deterministic chaos -- read Murphy's law. Because of the cross-coupling with the natural world, this will not merely lead to far more complex economic realities than classic black-box method can handle, but do so as well in our relationship with Nature -- from disappearing clean water and the growth of environmental mutagen toxins, to the growth of antibiotic-immune bacteria and inter-species disease transmission of disease, to clear percentage annual growth in the rate and severity of natural catastrophes.



3 - The analysis tools and actions we do regarding all this, corresponds to trying to use a hammer and chisel to address systemic illness in a human body. And in this analogy lies the key.



For in fact, we need to recognize on a grand scale, the transitional crisis that is taking place as we go from a flat planet with vast open territory and independent elements to a very round world and nonlinear interdependence. The nature of all this, fractal really, call to two directions -- complete chaotic decay, or a healthy evolution in homeostasis -- in this case not of a human body, but of the Body Humanity and its natural environment.



In short, it is only the butterfly that can fly out alive from the cocoon -- the caterpillar is gone. Or more classically: All the kings' growth plans, austerities, and taxes, won't be able to put Humpty together again -- as its time for a new baby chick to arise out of the yolk.

