Ask Nick: What a Michigan football win at Ohio State would mean

Nick Baumgardner | Detroit Free Press

Show Caption Hide Caption Jim Harbaugh previews Michigan-Ohio State game Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh speaks to the media on Monday, Nov. 19, 2018, in Ann Arbor about the upcoming Ohio State game.

The big one has arrived.

It'll be Michigan-Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday for the Big Ten East division title and a shot at everything beyond.

But first, a final regular season mailbag.

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If Michigan doesn’t win this (Ohio State game) and the Big Ten championship game is this a disappointing season considering they should win both games? — @35robert16

This is always an interesting question because it's never black and white.

If you're judging this based on preseason expectations only, Michigan has probably already out-paced what most believed this group was capable of. But, as Chase Winovich noted earlier this year, expectations change.

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If U-M loses Saturday, this would go in the books as a massive disappointment and an incredibly large blown opportunity. I don't believe the entire season would be a wash, as Michigan made too much progress in areas like the offensive line, wide receiver corps and everywhere defensively. Too much to ignore, in fact.

Jim Harbaugh would have to listen to people snipe about how he can't beat Urban Meyer for another year. The players would have to eat that, too. But the tone wouldn't be the same as it was at the end of last year, when many began to question (fair or not) whether any of this would ever work.

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One national columnist wrote that the team's loss at Notre Dame to open 2018 felt like "the beginning of the end" for Harbaugh. For those who have forgotten, that was absolutely an external view of Harbaugh's Michigan just three months ago. Now, if he beats Ohio State and Northwestern, he might be the national coach of the year.

A loss would be more of the same. A devastating blow, a morale crusher, etc.

A win? That'd be something else.

For U-M, a win in Columbus would be — in my opinion — the program's biggest win of this century.

Big Ten titles aren't shared anymore. They're harder to win. This would put Michigan one step closer to that. Beating Ohio State in Columbus isn't easy, as the Wolverines haven't done it since the year 2000. This game has the type of national implications this program hasn't seen since 2006, when it couldn't close the deal. The last time Michigan was in a spot like this and truly delivered was 1997, when the Wolverines won a national title.

It would help U-M continue the momentum its built on the recruiting trail. It would deliver a blow — maybe not a death rattle but a blow nonetheless — to Ohio State's machine of a program. It would strengthen the Wolverines' footing in the Big Ten and nationally.

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For this program, it could be seismic.

Those opportunities don't come around often. And when you blow them, they tend to hurt as much as they may have helped. At some point you either kick the door down or just accept the fact it may never happen.

Saturday is Michigan's chance to break the door.

What position group in your eyes has to play their best game for Michigan to be successful and come out with the win? — @ZackVanek

To me, this is the Ed Warinner game.

Michigan's offensive line has made so much progress this season. Teams can only put up one coach for the Broyles Award and Don Brown is as deserving as anyone at any time anywhere. But Warinner would be on the list if he was on any other staff. He's been outstanding.

Ohio State's offensive line has dipped since he left. U-M's has soared in the one year he's been here. He's established his value as an offensive line coach, without question.

If Michigan's offensive line is able to impose its will and control this up front, the Wolverines will own the game. U-M's ability to keep its defense fresh with ball control has been the theme of the year. In a game like this, it'd be a double whammy. Ohio State's greatest strength is its offense. If Michigan can pound the ball and control the flow of the game, Ohio State's in big trouble.

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Warinner said last week this trip would be "emotional" for him and for the team. Things did not end well between Warinner and Urban Meyer's program at the end of 2016.

He's a Michigan man now. And his group has the chance to make this a special day.

How big of an impact on the defense (would) Chase Winovich's (absence be), IF, he doesn’t play? — @scattimus23

Obviously it'd be huge for Michigan if he can't go. It would put more pressure on Kwity Paye and Josh Uche and it would basically mean Rashan Gary has to be ready to play all game long.

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Winovich's discipline on the edge has been the most underrated part of his game over the past two seasons, as he does a great job of funneling anything on the outside back toward the middle. Obviously, they'd miss his pass rush, but they'd miss everything else he brings. Including seemingly endless stamina.

If he plays and is limited, though, it would still put a lot on Gary's plate.

And Gary has to deliver.

These are money-making games in terms of overall NFL value. Taco Charlton became a first-round pick with the way he played in this game. Gary's 2017 Ohio State game was the best of his career. If he tops it Saturday, he can get rid of any lingering doubt some folks may have about his game.

More important right now, though, is that U-M needs him. Chris Wormley was great about being able to play every down all game long if Greg Mattison needed him to. Willie Henry used to do this. Winovich does it all the time.

It's time to see if Gary can do the same.

Do you see any specific play/package we haven’t seen all (year) being used on (Saturday) and if so what would it be? — @AngeloKircos

Harbaugh has done such a good job this year of gradually adding wrinkles and layers to this offense. Through 11 games, there's already a ton for Ohio State to think about. And that's the most important thing.

In 2015, Michigan unveiled a bunch of different Jabrill Peppers packages because it felt like gimmicks would be needed. This year? I'm not sure they need to gimmick things up. Their base offense is plenty.

However, there are certain actions or looks off previously established plays and packages that Harbaugh has no doubt saved for this game. He has done that every year he has coached against Ohio State.

I've never been a big fan of being overly outside the box with trick stuff just for the sake of doing so. If you're running something like that, you'd better be confident it'll get you a touchdown.

But Harbaugh and Michigan have countless motion/play-action/screen options that can run off established sets.

Michigan vs. Ohio State: 1950 Snow Bowl lives on in infamy When the Michigan Wolverines met the Ohio State Buckeyes in 1950, a blizzard of epic proportion left both teams struggling. Footage courtesy OSU.

Contact Nick Baumgardner: nbaumgardn@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickbaumgardner.