Jeb Bush

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks in Coral Gables, Fla. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

With almost exactly a year to go until the Iowa caucuses, Jeb Bush's announcement that he is actively exploring a run for the presidency has created a frenzy within the political class. This is particularly the case as many are salivating over the prospect of a Bush vs. Clinton battle for the presidency.

Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are the two most recognizable names among those who have expressed interest in running in 2016. So the country should brace for a battle of these dynastic families, right? Probably not. Just as the 2015 envisioned in Back to the Future 2 has not materialized, the odds are against a Back to the Future starring a Clinton or a Bush in the White House in 2016.

As the flavors of the day, the prospect of a Clinton-Bush campaign may excite some, but for most Americans, it would be a total turnoff. Simply put, some spin-offs should never be made (e.g., Joanie Loves Chachi). For many, a Clinton-Bush contest has already jumped the shark.

As the 2008 election season demonstrated, it is pretty difficult to be the front-runner so long in advance. There is no doubt Clinton will receive a great deal of support; however, she comes with a lot of baggage. Current public opinion polls show Clinton leading in head-to-head matchups against every potential Republican opponent including Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Mitt Romney.

Hillary Clinton is widely known -- and most Americans know exactly how they feel about her. This is both her greatest strength and her greatest weakness. There appears to be little room to increase her vote share in the electorate. Both her favorability and her unfavorability ratings hover between 47 and 43 percent. As she was eight years ago, Hillary Clinton continues to be a polarizing figure in American politics. That nearly 50 percent of Democrats want to see her challenged in the Democratic primary suggests many are hungry for an alternative.

Similarly, Jeb Bush comes with both promise and trepidation. Whether Jeb is compared to his father or his brother will matter to many voters. In a July 2014 Gallup poll, the elder Bush was viewed favorably by nearly two-thirds of respondents, while only a third viewed him unfavorably. In that same poll, conversely, 53 percent viewed George W. Bush favorably and 44 percent viewed him unfavorably. These continue to point out a highly polarized electorate when it comes to sibling Bush.

When it comes to Jeb Bush, it appears that he has more opportunity to define himself in the eyes of voters, as approximately a third of those surveyed viewed him favorably, a third viewed him unfavorably and a third either never heard of him or had no opinion. Consequently, Democrats have come out swinging in the days since his announcement, seeking to frame him as an "extremist."

I surveyed members of the 2012 Electoral College, and if it were up to them we would see a battle between Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio. While Democratic electors were solidly behind a Hillary Clinton candidacy (with 67 percent of electors opting for a Clinton ticket), Republican electors were a bit more ambivalent (with 26 percent of electors opting for a Rubio ticket). Both Jeb Bush and Rand Paul each received support from nearly 10 percent of Republican electors.

Digging more deeply, I found that, outside of Clinton, a number of Democrats expressed support for Elizabeth Warren. She has made headlines for her tough talk about financial institutions and would undoubtedly excite the base of the party in a nomination campaign. I conducted the survey just after the 2012 election when much of the talk was centering on Hillary Clinton.

What members of the Electoral College think matters. Their selection as a presidential elector is typically a reward for their hard work as loyal partisans. These individuals not only put forth time, effort, and campaign contributions, they also often hold party office, and many serve as delegates at their respective party conventions. These party captains provide the elbow grease that is needed in political campaigns. Yet, while many of these partisans would like to see Clinton or Bush at the top of their party's tickets, we are decidedly in an anti-Washington era.

The recent path to the Oval Office has run through governorships. Bucking that trend, President Barack Obama's victory marked the first time in nearly 50 years that a sitting senator was elected to the presidency. With Congress' approval rating hovering around 15 percent and the public's desire to see "change" yet again, it would appear that 2016 will likely favor outsider candidates. Try as they might, Bush and Clinton are decidedly perceived to be part of a Washington establishment which will be viewed as toxic heading into 2016.

While the spotlight is currently on Bush and Clinton, governors and former governors are carefully plotting their next moves, intent on selling themselves as "Anybody but Washington" ("ABW") candidates. Scott Walker, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Bobby Jindahl, and Martin O'Malley top this list. Sens. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Elizabeth Warren also make the ABW club through populist rhetoric and tough talk challenging their respective party establishments. Buckle up America, because the 2016 campaign is off and running.

Instead of going back to the future, those who run the farthest from Washington will likely cross their party's finish line first.

Robert Alexander is a professor of political science at Ohio Northern University and author of the 2012 book, "Presidential Electors and the Electoral College."