Poll: Majority Of Marylanders Don't Want Gov. Hogan To Challenge Trump In Primary

Governor Larry Hogan delivering his State of the State Address last month. Credit: WBAL-TV 11

A new poll finds Gov. Larry Hogan remains popular with Marylanders, but more than half of those surveyed think Hogan should not run for president next year.

The Goucher College poll of more than 800 adults found that 55 percent should not run for president, while 33 percent said he should. Four percent said “maybe,” 6 percent did not know, and 2 percent refused to answer.

This is the first poll taken on Hogan’s popularity and possible presidential ambitions since Hogan began his second term last month.

Read the Goucher Poll on Gov. Larry Hogan

Over the last month there have been some Republicans, and political pundits who have argued Hogan should challenge President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination next year.

Hogan has been critical of the president on the recent government shutdown and on immigration, speaking mostly in his role as vice chairman of the National Governors Association.

Hogan has repeatedly said that he is not focused on running for president.

Pollster Mileah Kromer said these numbers reflect national polls towards a Republican challenger to Trump.

“Nationwide among Republicans,” Kromer said, “about a third of Republicans say they would like to see Donald Trump have a Republican challenger, among Maryland Republicans it is about the same.”

Kromer adds that about a third of Democrats polled and a third of Republicans polled think Hogan should run for president.

Hogan’s approval rating remains high according to the poll, with 69 percent of to those polled either approve or strongly approve of the way Hogan handles his job as governor. That number was 64 percent in a September poll and 69 percent in a poll last April.

In the current poll, 14 percent either disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Hogan was doing.

The poll found Hogan’s approval rating among Democrats was at 65 percent, while it was 89 percent among Republicans and 71 percent among independents.

Kromer said she borrowed a question from Gallup in asking people to ascribe certain qualities Hogan.

Kromer says Gallup often asks people to ascribe these qualities to someone who is running for president.

The poll found 66 percent viewed Hogan as someone who keeps his promises; 67 percent viewed Hogan as someone who cares about the needs of people; 85 percent viewed Hogan as likable; 70 percent viewed Hogan as honest; 79 percent viewed Hogan as someone who works well with both parties to get things done; 80 percent view Hogan as someone who can manage government effectively and 65 percent say Hogan puts the state’s interests ahead of his own political interests.

Kromer said that like in past polls, Hogan’s popularity is due in part to people’s view of where the state is headed. The poll found that 59 percent believe the state is headed in the right direction and 61 percent have a mostly positive view of the state’s economy.

Kromer notes Republicans are more enthusiastic about the state’s economy, but she notes 60 percent of Democrats have a positive view of the State’s economy.

With respect to the Maryland General Assembly, where Democrats hold a commanding majority, the poll found 41 percent of Marylanders approve or strongly approve of the job state lawmakers are doing, while 30 percent approve or strongly disapprove, and 26 percent did not know.

Kromer describes those numbers as “above water” for lawmakers, who are viewed much more favorably compared to Congress, where Democrats control the House and Republicans control the Senate.

The poll found just 19 percent approve or strongly approve of the job Congress is doing, while 74 percent disapprove or strongly disapprove.

Trump’s job approval numbers remain low in Maryland, a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. The poll found 30 percent approve or strongly approve of the job Trump is doing. That is higher than the 23 percent measured in a September poll. The poll found 66 percent of those surveyed disapproved or strongly disapproved of the job Trump is doing.

Among Maryland Republicans, Trump has a 69 percent job approval rating, while it is 33 percent for Independents and 9 percent for Democrats.

In the first year the president’s tax reform plan is in effect, 48 percent of those polled expected their federal taxes to increase this year, while 19 percent expected their taxes to decrease and 20 percent expected it to stay the same.

The poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone.

The poll surveyed 808 adults in Maryland, from February 7-12, and the poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percent.

Of the adults polled, 707 indicated they were registered voters in Maryland. Of that group, 51 percent were registered Democrats, 28 percent were registered Republicans, 17 percent were registered unaffiliated and 4 percent were registered with other parties.

This is the second of two parts of the Goucher Poll to be released this week.

On Monday, the first part of the poll was released measuring Marylanders’ reaction to several issues before the Maryland General Assembly including legalizing recreational marijuana, raising the minimum wage and increasing funding for public schools.