I’m warning you now: be ready for the chalkiest list you’ve seen in a while. It may seem at first glance that I picked the five best quarterbacks in the league and decided out of laziness that they’ll probably score the most fantasy points this week. I promise you this is not the case, and I truly think these five quarterbacks will own the fantasy leaderboards in week 11.

How did I make my picks then? Same as every week, I looked at matchups, who’s home and who’s away, which teams are most likely to be effected by injuries — and yes, which quarterbacks are better than the other ones. It just so happened that this week, all the “elite” quarterbacks have pretty favorable matchups, and I can’t snub those guys for second-or-third-tier quarterbacks who I have a hunch about, so I’ll just list them as my honorable mentions. Alright, no more disclaimers, here are my predictions:

1. Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers might have about a hundred less passes than the league leaders (Roethlisberger, Luck, Brees, Manning), but he’s the most efficient quarterback in the league. We’re in week 11 and he has 25 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Some of the volume stats like yards and attempts aren’t as high as they should be, since Rodgers has been pulled from a couple of games that he turned into blowouts (against the Vikings and the Bears). I expect we won’t see any Matt Flynn this week though, as the Eagles are coming to town, and there are playoff implications. This should be a great game to watch, but I’m fairly confident that Rodgers will steal the show again. Here’s a stat for ya: It’ll be about 30 degrees at kickoff, and in the 17 games he’s played in 40 degrees and below, Aaron Rodgers has 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a 110.5 passer rating.

2. Peyton Manning – Opposing quarterbacks are completing about 70% of their passes against the St. Louis Rams for 7.9 yards per completion. While they have had pretty tough schedule so far, the best quarterbacks the Rams have faced have been Tony Romo and Russell Wilson. The only potential issue for Manning will be St. Louis’ pass rush, which has piled up 16 sacks over the past 4 weeks. The Broncos have also made a number of changes on their offensive line over the past four weeks, but so far so good. I don’t think the Rams will pose much of a problem for Denver’s west coast offense that is designed to get the ball out quick. It’s going to be another big week for Peyton Manning.

3. Drew Brees – The Saints are home against the Bengals. Drew Brees is pretty good when he plays at home, I think. The Bengals are a middle of the pack defense with a ton of injured players in their defensive backfield (not to mention Giovanni Bernard on the offensive side of things). Burfict will likely be inactive, and Maualuga’s status is up in the air, meaning that we still don’t know who is going to cover a healthy Jimmy Graham. Uh oh.

4. Andrew Luck – For me, Luck barely beats out Brady for the fourth spot, simply because he’ll be throwing it up downfield. This is actually the same reason I was reluctant picking Luck for this spot, his faith in his receivers often leads to turnovers (nine interceptions so far this year). He also hasn’t fared well against New England in his young career, which reminded me that the Pats have always had Peyton Manning’s number. I also think that New England’s corners have the edge over the Colts’ recievers (Revis, Dennard and Browner vs. Hilton, Nicks and Wayne). Luck will get his though, he always does. His success this week will largely depend on who wins the one-on-one matchups down the field and who comes down with those jump balls.

5. Tom Brady – Mr. Brady is on fire, and he’s playing a primetime game. Why should we expect anything other than another masterful performance? Indy’s defense doesn’t exactly inspire fear (16 passing touchdowns allowed in 2014) and the Pats are averaging 40 points a game over their last five. I’m racking my brain trying to find a reason why Brady won’t have a good game, and the only thing I’ve got is that the Colts were pretty close to taking down the Eagles and the Broncos, both of whom have great offenses. That doesn’t really do it for me though, because in both of those games, Indy’s defense collapsed in the second half, and that won’t fly against this Pats team.

Honorable Mention: Ben Roethlisberger, Colin Kaepernick, Teddy Bridgewater, Phillip Rivers

Down & Distance Contributor Jim Bearor

Check out our other weekly fantasy previews:

Over the middle

Down the Seam

Rock Solid

In the Backfield