Afghanistan has 25% unemployment, and 55% live below the poverty line. In the month of August 2019 alone, we can see violence across the Afghanistan state, with the Taliban threatening to attack poll stations, as they believe that they are legitimate government of Afghanistan (BBC, 2019b; CIA, 2019a). 2,500 civilians have been killed from January to September 2019, and a further 6,000 injured (BBC, 2019c; Qazi, 2019). As people feared voting due to the Taliban threat, this current government is elected with a low majority vote count (50.6%), about 1.8 million voters out of 9.6 million voters, out of a population of 37 million, amidst claims of fraud (BBC, 2019b; BBC, 2019c); these are not the stats of a legitimate government required to pull a country together after 18 years of civil war.

Currently 13,000 U.S. solders are stationed in Afghanistan, and many deals with the Tablian involve removing between 5,000 to 6,000 of these soldiers. Some diplomats believe that this withdrawal will not affect operational effectiveness of U.S. forces, some believe it would be disastrous (BBC, 2019b; BBC, 2019c). China is wary; Afghanistan and China share a 76 kilometre border, and if Pakistan refuses to shelter terrorists, many may find their way towards the Islamic Xinjiang region and cause further problem (Al Jazeera, 2019).

Should the U.S. withdraw, many warn that we would see an end to free press, any chance of safety, feminism, or any kind of progress at all in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is known as the ‘graveyard of empires’; Alexander the Great tried. The Persians tried. The British tried. The Soviets tried. Currently the U.S. is bleeding to do so. And China now wants her piece of the bloody pie, with the U.S. quite happy to let China have a go (but not so happy to risk China taking over leadership of the area) (Saif, 2019).

Why does China want to get involved in this mess? Because Afghanistan has gas, petroleum, copper, chromite, other previous stones, and potentially good farming land. Energy is important for China, the metals and minerals are good for Made in China 2025 projects and technological development and production, and the farming land is vital for Chinese stability and food supply. 58.1% of Afghani land is useful for farming (CIA, 2019a). China has shown interest in getting those minerals as well (Saif, 2019). China can offer some things in return; Afghanistan has pollution issues, and Chinese green technology can help through One Belt One Road (CIA, 2019c).

Not only that, but Afghanistan has a massive young population, which could be partially used to offset the Chinese ageing population which is constantly consuming less. However, the Afghan population is very poor, and even cheap Chinese goods are beyond their ability to buy in any real numbers; most Afghan consumption is done via foreign soldiers who stay there for years and buy large amounts of goods while living in Afghanistan (CIA, 2019c).

Afghani economics depends heavily and currently on foreign direct investment; as a country in war, it may be that Chinese investment is the only investment willing to go to such a country. However, the Chinese One Belt One Road provides mostly infrastructure; all of which Afghanistan desperately needs to develop, and China desperately needs to get rid of. Afghanistan is a very underdeveloped country; only 43 airports, 2 river ports (Kheyrabad, Shir Khan), and they’re ranked 92 in roadways. They are ranked 138 in fixed line telecommunication infrastructure, less than 1% of the population have a subscription to a telephone, 70% of the population have mobile phones, 11% use the internet, and only 84% of the population has electricity (although half of the energy is produced via hydroelectric sources) (CIA, 2019c).

Conclusion

India sits in a hard place; while it allies with the United States and Japan, it is surrounded by countries who hold little love for it, and internally, it struggles to maintain an economy that is being sucked dry by the Chinese black hole on its border. Pakistan has shown India what will happen if it openly trades with China, and the effects will particular hurt India where it doesn’t want it, or need it. While it struggles to maintain the military might required to hold the Chinese off of its border, it has a leader who will refuse to lose publicly. Japan and India may be beginning to build a One Belt One Road alternative, but even favourable predictions of India’s success suggest becoming equal to China in 2050; India has already failed the previous prediction of becoming a superpower by 2020, and it’ll be interesting if this time it works.

Meanwhile, we are beginning to see China try to create the infrastructure in and around the Indian subcontinent to try and build up far range capacities and extend Chinese military reach; it could be for protection of Chinese trade, which currently relies on U.S. ships and navy to protect as it moves across the seas, but the immediate ability to shut down the only major anti-Chinese rival via land and sea routes is obvious, as China prepares for the possibility of squeezing India from above via the Pakistani army, directly from Tibet, and blockading the sea via Sri Lanka, Pakistani ports, and via the air force in local Chinese-controlled airports and fuel lines. With India contained, Russia on the north, and North Korea holding the peninsula, we could expect China to build up the main coastline of the mainland to shore up their military approaches and protect themselves in the short-term.

Both Japan and India on one side, and China and Pakistan on the other are building up to control the Indian Ocean and the land trade from Asia to the West (whether Africa or Europe), and both are building up militaries and infrastructure for the long-haul.

Regional leadership is undetermined; China has the economic size and the largest military, but the Japanese is more trusted, and has other alliances to support it. Meanwhile, ASEAN countries rely more and more on China, Japan invests in more countries, and Sri Lanka’s new government may fall under either the Chinese or the Indians. We shall cover more of this in the next article on Chinese diplomacy in Asia.

Chinese Diplomacy Articles

We have discussed the following countries in a series of articles to outline the good and bad of Chinese diplomacy in the modern era: