The solution to Syria runs through Moscow By PJ Crowley

Former US Assistant Secretary of State Published duration 19 September 2015 Related Topics Syrian civil war

image copyright AFP image caption The continuing violence is calling into question whether Syria will continue to exist as a single state

It is difficult to construct an accurate picture from the dramatic images of refugees and migrants who have surged towards Europe in recent weeks by boat, train and foot. Who are they? Why are they fleeing in apparently growing numbers? Why now? What has changed?

Europe is struggling to put together a coherent response that takes into account the varied capabilities and political leanings of its 28 members, pulled between the compassionate pragmatism of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the angry populism of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

These refugees and migrants are fleeing many conflicts and crises, but the most significant driving factor would appear to be the civil war in Syria, now well into its fifth year.

For many, this increased movement seems to suggest that, with no apparent end in sight, they are giving up on Syria. The country they knew no longer exists. There is no going back.

The ramifications are enormous. Syria is already a failed state. It is unclear whether it will survive as a single sovereign state.

The demographics of surrounding countries are changing dramatically. Twenty-five percent of the population of Lebanon is now Syrian; in Jordan, it is 10%.

Just to put that in perspective, Americans continue a never-ending political argument over what to do with 11 million undocumented people - now triple or quadruple that number.

The crisis has generated a new sense of urgency to find a solution to the Syrian conflict. That is music to the ears of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

image copyright Reuters image caption The migrant crisis has focused European minds on the fact that the Syrian crisis has forces millions out of the country

Mr Putin has been busy over the past several weeks, discussing Syria with a range of regional leaders and inviting representatives for the various warring factions to Moscow for consultations.

We hear President Putin will use his upcoming speech to the United Nations General Assembly on 28 September in New York, his first appearance in a decade, to encourage expanded international co-operation on Syria.

Of course, it is no small irony that, next to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Mr Putin bears significant responsibility for the deepening tragedy in Syria, with hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced.

Mr Assad would never have survived this long without Russia's help.

Syria represents Russia's last bastion of significant influence in the Middle East. Its strategic location enables Russia to project power in the Mediterranean.

Lately, Mr Putin seems to have increased Russia's military presence in Syria and its support - more personnel, aircraft, helicopters and material - as the Syrian military has lost ground and momentum on the battlefield.

The moves have the Obama administration's attention. There have been a flurry of recent calls between Moscow and Washington to clarify Russia's intentions. One included the first contact between the defence ministers of the two countries in more than a year.

image copyright AP image caption Russia has been seen as an indispensable ally of the Syrian regime

Russia's growing presence requires the two countries to establish procedures to make sure it does not come into conflict with the ongoing America-led air campaign against the Islamic State (IS).

The US Secretary of State John Kerry said in London that the renewed contacts are also intended to search for "common ground" as the international community considers its next steps.

The one common denominator is everyone's desire to defeat the Islamic State. Mr Putin may well try to advance the idea of a grand coalition, including Iran, to achieve that objective.

But Washington, Moscow and the region hold vastly different interpretations of what the crisis is about and how to resolve it.

The Obama administration sees Mr Assad as the central figure in the conflict and has since 2011 called for him to step down. The war won't end until he is gone.

President Putin calls Mr Assad's opponents terrorists and sees him as the vanguard against extremism. He claims the Syrian refugees are fleeing Islamic State, even though most human rights monitors point to regime attacks, including the use of chlorine-filled barrel bombs.

Many in the region see in Syria the expansion of Iran's hegemonic ambitions. No-one in the current international coalition, except Iraq, considers Iran an ally.

It is hard to see how these differences can be bridged.

image copyright AFP image caption Russian recently sent a cargo to Syria, insisting it was carrying aid

Mr Putin is not the grand strategist he is frequently made out to be, but he senses opportunity and is moving decisively to occupy centre stage and influence future events.

Two years ago, Mr Putin helped President Barack Obama salvage a diplomatic victory that eliminated Syria's stocks of chemical weapons after the Assad regime crossed a red line over their use in Syria's civil war. The initiative forestalled a congressional vote over the use of military force that Mr Obama was very likely to lose.

Mr Putin was happy to help. Now he wants to be there as European leaders wrestle with the refugee crisis and its political fallout.

Is there a grand bargain available regarding Syria? Probably not, at least not until Vladimir Putin is willing to give up on Mr Assad. Russia's recent military moves suggest he is not there yet.

But the current situation puts Mr Putin back in the game and will enable him to use the refugee crisis to begin to roll back Moscow's isolation over Ukraine.

One of Washington's favourite narratives regards American indispensability. But when it comes to the tragedy in Syria, Mr Putin is making clear that the road to an ultimate solution flows through Moscow.