As with most conduct-related punishments in the NFL, the announcement of Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game suspension in August was just the beginning of a protracted period of ugly public back-and-forth between league and player. Elliott’s suspension was the result of multiple incidents. It’s a story far too sordid and complex to summarize in a fantasy team preview, so, if you need details, I’ll direct you to this archive, containing detailed reporting.

Fantasy analysis is obviously the smallest, least significant angle on a story that impacts many lives, and that will shape the nature of league discipline moving forward. But here we are. Longtime fantasy owners understand that when we draft players, we’re really only investing in the sets of statistics associated with those players. We’re playing a numbers game. No deeper relationship exists. It feels wrong to reduce certain stories to fantasy spin, but, well … people are out there drafting teams. Elliott was the league’s leading rusher last season. There’s a fantasy conversation to be had.

With that in mind, let’s consider the range of possible on-field outcomes for Elliott in the season ahead. As of this writing, the suspension appeal process is ongoing. Even when a decision is handed down (probably on Monday), there’s a very good chance this story will not be finished. Elliott’s punishment could be upheld, reduced or erased. He can choose to accept or contest the arbitrator’s decision. It’s not at all clear that Elliott will actually be sidelined in opening week. Everything remains on the table, including a lengthy legal fight.

Let’s simply consider the worst-case scenario from the perspective of a fantasy owner who drafts Elliott: You’ll need to find a six-week replacement RB, but Zeke will presumably be available to you in December, when fantasy titles are won and lost. Last season, he averaged 133 scrimmage yards and one touchdown per week. He is, without question, a fantasy difference-maker of the highest order. Dallas’ offensive line took a few minor hits in the offseason, but the unit still figures to be one of the league’s best.

The key to drafting Elliott and successfully navigating the regular season is to enter your draft planning to cover a prolonged absence. This isn’t particularly difficult in standard-size leagues — let’s say 8-12 teams with the usual starting positions — but it becomes much more challenging in deep formats. (On Sunday night, I had the fourteenth pick in a 20-team draft. When Elliott remained on the board through the first nine picks, I began to get the Zeke sweats. Someone eventually pulled the trigger before he fell to me, however. I felt mostly relief, but maybe a twinge of regret.)

The Cowboys are planning to rely on Darren McFadden as their primary back during Elliott’s suspension, and he’s certainly a reasonable fantasy option while occupying a featured role. He’s nowhere near Elliott’s class as a runner, certainly, but he’ll work behind a quality line in a productive offense. Alfred Morris actually had a more impressive preseason, but he doesn’t have McFadden’s all-situation skill set. Morris is merely a handcuff to a handcuff, not obviously worth owning.

Ultimately, your willingness to roster Elliott is a reflection of your risk tolerance. It’s a big gamble, no doubt. If you’re in on Zeke, then you’re probably out on an early-round QB or TE, because you’ll need to roster one more running back than would be necessary under normal circumstances. But again, Elliott is the rare back who’s worth all the management headaches. He’s the kind of fantasy asset who can decide league championships. I have a Labor Day draft upcoming, and I’ll be eying him near the turn.

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