There were 5,081 Conservative party members in the Alberta riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner as of March 30, 2017 — and only 18 in the Quebec riding of Rivière-du-Nord, according to two identical copies of the party membership list independently obtained by iPolitics.

Though those two ridings provide the most extreme contrast in membership numbers (which could increase substantially when the party finalizes its list), they were part of a larger pattern.

There were 11 other ridings in Alberta with over 1,000 members and 16 more in Quebec with fewer than 40.

In a leadership contest in which each riding is worth 100 points regardless of how many members it has — a formula insisted upon by Progressive Conservatives at the formation of the party — some members’ votes are simply more valuable than others. Particularly those in Quebec.

“We said this three months ago: the smart campaigns will stay in Quebec full-time, because that’s the richest yield in terms of members-to-point value,” said Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi, who’s been polling the race for iPolitics.

“It’s 7,800 points out of 33,380.”

It takes 16,901 points to win.

Take a closer look at Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, for example, where a byelection last October swelled the membership rolls. Each member’s vote in that riding is worth 0.02 points (assuming 100 per cent turnout). In Rivière-du-Nord — the seat held by Bloc MP Rhéal Fortin — each vote is worth 5.55 points.

In other words, it makes a lot more sense for candidates to lock down the 18 members in Rivière-du-Nord than to try to fight it out with 13 other campaigns for a share of the 5,081 members in Medicine Hat.

Comparing the provinces more broadly, there were more Conservative party members in a handful of Calgary ridings than in all of Quebec.

Quebec had 7,411 members spread across 78 ridings — an average of 95 per riding. Compare that to Alberta’s 33,768 members in 34 ridings, for an average almost ten times larger: 993 members per riding.

Despite the fact that one-quarter of the 137,381 Conservative members live in Alberta, Ontario still had the largest number of members in absolute terms: 56,847.

That means 41 per cent of party members were in Ontario, roughly in line with the province’s percentage of the Canadian population.

Again, the same can’t can’t be said of Quebec — it has over one-fifth of the Canadian population but made up just over one-twentieth of members — or Alberta, which has around one-tenth of the Canadian population but 25 per cent of its members.

Below is the full breakdown of membership by province and territory.

Ontario: 56,847

Alberta: 33,768

B.C.: 19,987

Saskatchewan: 7,688

Quebec: 7,411

Manitoba: 5,394

Nova Scotia: 2,576

New Brunswick: 1,904

P.E.I.: 632

Newfoundland and Labrador: 490

Yukon: 468

Northwest Territories:182

Nunavut: 34

So what ridings should campaigns have been targeting?

Of the 50 ridings with the fewest members (ranging from 18 to 74), all but seven were in Quebec.

Of those seven not in Quebec, four are in Newfoundland and Labrador, one is in New Brunswick (Acadie—Bathurst), one is in Nunavut and one is in Ontario — Liberal MP Judy Sgro’s riding, which was number 50 on the list of ridings with the fewest CPC members.

The bottom ten were:

1)Rivière-du-Nord QC (18 members)

2)Labrador NL (22 members)

3)Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel QC (22 members)

4)Honoré-Mercier QC (23 members)

5)La Pointe-de-l’Île QC (23 members

6)Terrebonne QC (25 members)

7)Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine QC (26 members)

8)Bourassa QC (27 members)

9)Montcalm QC (28 members)

10)Bonavista—Burin—Trinity NL (31 members)

At the other end of the spectrum, 32 of the 50 ridings with the most members were found in Alberta, including nine of the top 10.

Calgary Midnapore and Calgary Heritage likely saw a membership surge as a result of recent byelections in April, as Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner did in October.

The top ten were:

1) Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner AB (5,081 members)

2) Calgary Midnapore AB (2,029 members)

3) Calgary Heritage AB (1,804 members)

4) Foothills AB (1,333 members)

5) Calgary Signal Hill AB (1,299 members)

6) Calgary Centre AB (1,227 members)

7) Calgary Confederation AB (1,195 members)

8) Banff—Airdrie AB (1,075 members)

9) Brampton East ON (1,073 members)

10) Calgary Rocky Ridge AB (1,046 members)

With a number of campaigns boasting of signing up thousands of members, many of whom might not be included in the lists obtained by iPolitics, these figures could change by the time the final list comes out.

Kevin O’Leary’s campaign claimed to have added 33,336 members in 69 days, while Leitch’s claimed another 33,000. Chong’s campaign claimed 17,000 new members, and Raitt’s people claimed 10,000.

“Some of those numbers are already included in the 137,381. The numbers that the campaigns have declared are partly renewals,” Maggi said.

From what he’s heard, Maggi thinks the final tally is likely to be somewhere between 175,000 and 210,000.

“If it’s closer to 175,000, it benefits Bernier … the higher it is, the more likely it is that Leitch and O’Leary have not exaggerated their signup numbers. If it’s as low as 175,000-180,000, I would say Bernier has the best chance,” he said.