February 16, 2017 - Either Democrat Tops Republicans In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Dems Are Locked In Dead Heat Primary

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In an early look at the 2017 Virginia governor's race, Democrats Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam top any of four possible Republican contenders, but find themselves locked in a dead heat primary race with 61 percent of Democratic voters undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.





Former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie leads the Republican primary pack with 24 percent, followed by Prince William County Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart with 7 percent, State Sen. Frank Wagner at 5 percent and businessman Denver Riggelman with 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Most Republicans, 59 percent, are undecided.





In the Democratic primary, former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam are tied 19 - 19 percent, with 61 percent undecided.





General election matchups show either Democrat leading any Republican:

Perriello over Gillespie 43 - 36 percent;

Perriello tops Stewart 44 - 31 percent;

Perriello leads Riggelman 43 - 30 percent;

Perriello beats Wagner 43 - 32 percent;

Northam tops Gillespie 41 - 35 percent;

Northam leads Stewart 42 - 31 percent;

Northam tops Riggelman 42 - 31 percent;

Northam over Wagner 41 - 33 percent.

"Although none of the candidates - Democrat or Republican - is very well known to the Virginia electorate, the Old Dominion obviously has a blue tinge at this point," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The fact that relatively unknown Democrats are scoring better than relatively unknown Republicans indicates that for now at least this Democratic brand is more attractive to Virginia voters."





"The most important numbers are 59 and 61, the percentages of Republican and Democratic voters who are undecided in their respective primaries," Brown added.





Virginia voters know little about this year's candidates for governor. The number of voters who don't know enough about the candidates to form an opinion of them ranges from 54 percent to 89 percent.





In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 13 percent of Virginia voters list the economy as the most important issue in how they will vote for governor this year. Another 12 percent cite education.





Gov. McAuliffe's Job Approval, Satisfaction





There is little gender gap as Old Dominion voters approve 51 - 34 percent of the job Gov. Terry McAuliffe is doing. Men approve 50 - 37 percent and women approve 52 - 32 percent. Approval is 82 - 6 percent among Democrats and 48 - 35 percent among independent voters. Republicans disapprove 69 - 17 percent.





White voters approve 46 - 41 percent and non-white voters approve 64 - 18 percent.





A total of 67 percent of Virginia voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state today, while 32 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."





"The fact that two-thirds of Virginia voters are satisfied with the way things are going in the state probably helps the Democratic side in the governor's race. But that two-thirds satisfaction translates to only a 51 percent job approval for Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe - solid but not spectacular," Brown said.





From February 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 989 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 419 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points, and 462 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.







1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Gillespie, Corey Stewart, Denver Riggleman, and Frank Wagner, for whom would you vote?

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS.............................. Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Gillespie 24% 24% 29% 27% 18% 24% 24% 30% 22% Stewart 7 6 9 5 7 10 4 9 6 Riggleman 2 - 1 - 4 4 - 1 2 Wagner 5 4 6 3 3 5 4 5 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 5 2 2 4 1 3 DK/NA 59 61 52 59 66 54 63 54 62

2. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Perriello 19% 21% 19% 17% 22% 16% Northam 19 25 21 15 19 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 61 53 57 66 56 64

3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Ed Gillespie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 41% 2% 87% 29% 38% 44% 45% 25% Gillespie 35 80 1 34 39 31 34 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 2 - 3 DK/NA 22 18 10 35 20 23 20 23 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 49% 42% 40% 41% 31% 38% 35% 57% Gillespie 24 36 40 38 46 38 42 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 3 2 1 2 2 3 DK/NA 23 22 17 19 21 22 22 21

4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Corey Stewart the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 42% 3% 87% 30% 40% 44% 47% 24% Stewart 31 75 1 26 34 28 30 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 24 19 10 42 23 25 22 27 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 50% 43% 40% 41% 33% 38% 35% 59% Stewart 19 32 36 35 42 34 38 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 - 4 1 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 25 25 20 23 23 25 24 22

5. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Denver Riggleman the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 42% 3% 87% 28% 39% 44% 47% 23% Riggleman 31 78 1 24 33 28 28 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 25 19 11 44 25 26 23 28 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 47% 43% 41% 41% 31% 38% 35% 58% Riggleman 23 31 34 34 41 35 38 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 4 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 27 25 21 24 26 25 25 24

6. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Frank Wagner the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Northam 41% 3% 85% 28% 38% 44% 47% 22% Wagner 33 79 2 29 36 30 31 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 24 18 11 40 24 24 22 27 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Northam 48% 42% 39% 39% 30% 38% 34% 58% Wagner 22 35 37 36 44 36 40 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 3 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 26 23 20 23 24 24 24 22

7. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Ed Gillespie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Perriello 43% 3% 89% 30% 38% 47% 45% 26% Gillespie 36 82 1 34 41 32 36 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 20 14 9 35 19 20 19 21 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Perriello 50% 42% 40% 45% 31% 40% 36% 61% Gillespie 27 37 39 42 49 39 44 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 1 - 1 1 2 DK/NA 21 21 18 12 20 20 20 18

8. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Corey Stewart the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Perriello 44% 4% 90% 33% 41% 47% 47% 29% Stewart 31 79 - 26 35 28 31 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 22 16 9 38 21 23 22 23 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Perriello 53% 44% 42% 44% 35% 40% 38% 60% Stewart 20 33 36 36 43 34 38 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 4 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 23 22 18 19 20 24 22 20

9. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Denver Riggleman the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Perriello 43% 4% 88% 32% 39% 47% 45% 28% Riggleman 30 75 1 25 35 27 30 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 2 1 3 DK/NA 24 20 10 40 23 24 24 25 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Perriello 49% 43% 43% 43% 31% 41% 36% 59% Riggleman 21 32 34 34 42 32 37 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 4 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 25 25 19 21 24 24 24 22

10. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Frank Wagner the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Perriello 43% 3% 88% 32% 39% 46% 46% 27% Wagner 32 80 1 26 36 29 31 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 23 16 9 39 23 23 22 24 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Perriello 52% 42% 42% 42% 32% 40% 37% 60% Wagner 22 34 37 36 43 35 39 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 4 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 22 24 17 22 22 23 23 22

11. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for Governor this year?

Tot Economy Total 13% Economy general 9 Unemployment/Jobs 3 Minimum wage too low 1 Education Total 12% Education general 10 Funding education 2 Political affiliation/philosophy 7% Healthcare Total 6% Healthcare/Costs/Ins/HMO's 4 Medicaid/Costs/Abuse 1 Medicare 1 Immigration 4% Taxes general 4% Budget Total 3% Budget general 2 Gov too big/Gov spending 1 Civil Rights and Human Rights 3% Integrity/Morality/Character 3% Women's issues 3% Abortion 2% Environment/Pollution 2% Gun control 2% Security/Safety 2% Work against Trump 2% Working together 2% Election/Voting reform 1% Governor/State leadership/Legisltr 1% Mass/public transportation 1% Social issues 1% Work with Trump 1% Other 16% DK/NA 9%

12. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 19% 4% 34% 18% 19% 19% 25% 13% Unfavorable 6 12 2 6 9 3 5 8 Hvn't hrd enough 74 82 64 76 71 76 69 78 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 22% 19% 18% 23% 16% 21% 19% 22% Unfavorable 6 6 4 9 9 5 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 72 74 77 68 74 73 73 74 REFUSED - 1 1 - 1 1 1 -

13. Is your opinion of Tom Perriello favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 23% 5% 39% 20% 20% 24% 24% 18% Unfavorable 10 21 4 7 14 7 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 66 70 56 71 64 68 66 67 REFUSED 1 3 - 1 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 33% 19% 19% 26% 19% 23% 21% 27% Unfavorable 14 5 11 12 15 8 12 7 Hvn't hrd enough 51 74 68 61 63 69 66 64 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 3 - 1 2

14. Is your opinion of Ed Gillespie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 24% 48% 6% 22% 29% 20% 26% 30% Unfavorable 21 3 42 15 21 20 27 13 Hvn't hrd enough 54 47 50 63 48 59 46 55 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 14% 24% 26% 34% 31% 25% 28% 15% Unfavorable 23 18 22 22 20 20 20 23 Hvn't hrd enough 63 56 51 44 47 54 51 62 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 -

15. Is your opinion of Corey Stewart favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 11% 22% 3% 12% 14% 9% 10% 15% Unfavorable 11 3 22 7 13 10 15 8 Hvn't hrd enough 76 72 75 81 71 80 74 75 REFUSED 1 2 - - 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 6% 14% 13% 13% 16% 10% 13% 9% Unfavorable 10 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 Hvn't hrd enough 81 74 74 74 71 78 74 79 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

16. Is your opinion of Denver Riggleman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 5% 10% 2% 3% 6% 4% 3% 5% Unfavorable 5 2 9 4 6 5 7 4 Hvn't hrd enough 89 86 89 92 87 90 89 89 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 8% 4% 5% 3% 5% 3% 4% 7% Unfavorable 8 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 89 88 92 88 91 89 87 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 - 1 1

17. Is your opinion of Frank Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 10% 17% 4% 10% 10% 10% 7% 12% Unfavorable 9 5 16 6 10 8 8 9 Hvn't hrd enough 80 76 80 84 78 81 84 77 REFUSED 1 2 - - 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 10% 8% 12% 11% 10% 9% 9% 12% Unfavorable 15 8 9 7 9 8 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 74 83 77 81 79 82 81 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 -

23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 51% 17% 82% 48% 50% 52% 59% 33% Disapprove 34 69 6 35 37 32 30 50 DK/NA 15 14 13 16 13 17 11 16 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 55% 57% 48% 47% 43% 48% 46% 64% Disapprove 22 28 41 44 43 38 41 18 DK/NA 24 15 11 9 13 13 13 17

24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 49% 32% 36% 41% 38% 40% 39% Disapprove 40 28 49 42 43 37 45 36 DK/NA 21 22 20 22 15 26 14 26 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non- 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 48% 39% 38% 34% 43% 36% 39% 40% Disapprove 33 43 43 39 41 41 41 38 DK/NA 19 17 18 27 16 23 20 22

28. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Virginia today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?