The GDP-growth figure released today, at 3.5%, was slightly higher than expected, but camouflages the mounting economic cost of the 2014 coup. Thailand’s output gap is now among the biggest in Asia; the economy is being kept afloat by government spending and foreign tourists’ cash. But last week’s bombings may deter visitors, and autocratic rule is stifling economic progress. Household debt is at a historic high; low agricultural prices have depressed farm incomes. The country’s old-style route to prosperity is blocked: exports will fall for the fourth consecutive year in 2016. Thailand’s economy is bigger than those of fast-growing Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia combined. But its population is ageing and economic policy is deeply conservative. Future growth will have to come from capital accumulation or increases in productivity. Yet the new constitution puts the army in charge, making it responsible for the economy, education and innovation. What could possibly go wrong?