Pep Guardiola’s talented side look well placed to be the first to retain the Premier League title since United in 2009

Guardian writers’ predicted position:1st (NB: this is not necessarily Nick Ames’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 1st

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 4-6

At the turn of September it will be a decade since Sheikh Mansour and his billions swept into Manchester, bringing with them a Robinho-suffused tide of optimism and the promise that nothing would be the same again. In the first instance things were wearily familiar, the explosion of optimism when their £32.5m signing cracked in a free-kick on his debut quickly being tempered by three goals from a Chelsea team who, in that first season, would finish 33 points clear of Mark Hughes’s side.

“We are not going to do crazy stuff but it makes sense for us to build a dynasty,” Khaldoon al-Mubarak, installed as club chairman, said after the takeover had been formalised. The process has been iterative but last season the blocks fell into place and, after such a jaw-dropping procession to their third title in seven years, it seems the first stage of City’s project is complete. Under Pep Guardiola they have played football of a standard unparalleled in the Premier League era, give or take Arsenal’s sides from the early 2000s, and sent records tumbling in the process. The bar has been set dauntingly high and the measure of the project’s next phase will be City’s ability to meet it, then outjump it.

It is a problem they have had before and that is why this season holds particular importance. No team have retained the Premier League title since Manchester United, in 2009, won their third in a row. City have tried and failed twice so it was worth listening to Vincent Kompany when, early in March and with first place essentially in the bag, the club captain sounded a warning.

“We have won two titles at this club and both times when we came back there was an edge missing,” he said. “That is why it is so difficult to retain titles. Only special teams can do it and we have to become that special team this time.”

The biggest factor City have in their favour for the nine months ahead is Guardiola, whose intense and sometimes prickly persona is the by-product of a ferocious desire for perfection. It seemed like a coup when, in May, he extended his contract for two years until 2021; he has never been committed to a football club for this long in his managerial career and appears besotted with an environment that has been purpose-built for him. A lack of internal politics helps: Guardiola has been allowed to work with scant distraction and the benefits have been astronomical.

So how does one improve the side that has everything? This has been a summer of relatively minor tweaks, and City will essentially go with the squad that was expensively assembled to Guardiola’s satisfaction last season. The exception is Riyad Mahrez, who had been sought in January but arrived from Leicester for £60m in July. Mahrez, the best creative player outside last season’s top six, does not obviously replace anyone in the starting XI but his versatility will prove as useful as his flair.

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If he plays on the right then perhaps Raheem Sterling can be deployed through the middle, or maybe Bernardo Silva – whose exceptional Community Shield showing suggests much more should be expected this time around after a patchy first year – can be used regularly in the No 10 role that might suit him best. It is an addition that makes City more flexible, even trickier to second-guess, even harder to keep up with when Guardiola makes one of those quickfire, mid-game changes of shape that leave opponents flailing.

Guardiola may still bring in a central midfielder before the transfer deadline, having been foiled in his pursuit of Jorginho. That deal broke down suddenly after the player opted to join Maurizio Sarri at Chelsea; there is no major reason to fret but City do look curiously light in his position, particularly now Yaya Touré is no longer around. The excellent Fernandinho, now 33, may need nursing back after playing an unfortunate part in Brazil’s World Cup elimination; İlkay Gündogan will play a major role while Kevin De Bruyne’s merits hardly need elucidating. Some dynamic back-up could be useful, unless one of City’s innumerable academy products can step up.

The latter point will be worth marking, too. In contrast to his opposite number at Old Trafford, Guardiola took evident pleasure in leading a flock of youngsters through pre-season and particularly enjoyed a 3-2 comeback win over Bayern Munich in Miami.

Phil Foden, the gifted 18-year-old playmaker, was involved throughout and the noise around him reached a crescendo when he performed so marvellously in the De Bruyne role against Chelsea at Wembley. The local boy has a real chance to make his mark, perhaps in some of the softer top-flight games to begin with. Guardiola has been criticised in some quarters for diverging from the youth development principles he honed at Barcelona, and a prominent role for Foden would speak more positively for the pathway at a club that have, so far this summer, sold or moved on 24 youngsters.

In the short term, though, that would merely be the garnish for the owners’ burning ambition: to conquer Europe. A first Champions League win would crown everything City have achieved so far and an improvement on last season’s quarter-final finish, as a minimum, appears obligatory if Guardiola is to avoid a renewal of the scrutiny that dogged parts of his first season. The manager himself could do with scratching the itch: seven years have passed since the second, and most recent, of his successes in the competition.

City were arguably unlucky to face Liverpool last time around in the Champions League: it is certainly reasonable to think they would have outplayed any of their overseas rivals among an underwhelming field. Real Madrid’s adaptation to a post-Ronaldo era lends an obvious opportunity now and it is not a huge stretch to see Jürgen Klopp’s side posing Guardiola his biggest challenge both at home and abroad.

That poses another question: what if other opponents muster assaults of the intensity and aggression with which Liverpool motored to that 3-0 first-leg lead at Anfield? That performance set the mould for unsettling City.

The likelihood is that City will break the spell and, at least, back up last season’s title with another, even if few expect another 19-point margin. Sergio Agüero and Gabriel Jesus will score freely, De Bruyne and Leroy Sané will electrify, John Stones and Aymeric Laporte will continue to mature at the back.

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Only once, in a final season at Barcelona during which he felt burned out, has Guardiola failed to win consecutive titles with the same team. City’s aim is that he will not have to feel the associated sense of emptiness again. “We’re here to help build a sustainable club,” Al-Mubarak said in 2008. “I think we’re going to have a blast doing it.” He thought correctly and the fun is unlikely to stop any time soon.