Let's say Tesla delivers its 200,000th unit in Q4 this year. Consumers would still get the full credit for vehicles delivered in 2019 Q1, but then for deliveries made in 2019 Q2 and Q3, the credit gets cut in half. Then it gets cut in half again for the next two quarters. So if production goes as planned, which is a phrase never uttered once about Tesla in its 15-year history, the federal tax credit for buying a Tesla will be nil by mid-2020.