9th July 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Liberal Party of Canada led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finds itself in the lead with less than a hundred days left to go before the federal election in October.

Those are the findings of a new Mainstreet Research/iPolitics/Groupe Capitales Médias poll, which surveyed 2651 Canadians between June 27th-July 2nd. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 1.9% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals have rebounded thanks to a dip in Conservative support,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberals have significant leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada and would be the favourites to win if the election were held today based on these numbers”.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau has 35% (no change since Mainstreet’s last federal poll in April), while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 33.2% (-4.2%). The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has 10.4% (-1.2%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 10.3% (+2.4%). The Bloc Quebecois has 4.5% (+1.4%) overall, but enjoy 19.1% support in Quebec. The People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier has 4.6% (+0.8 %).

“Regionally, the picture looks very much the same as it did in April, with the Liberals maintaining their leads in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces,” continued Maggi. “But the Conservatives have big leads in Alberta and the Prairies, along with a five-point lead in British Columbia.”

“It’s the large leads in Alberta and the Prairies that make the Conservative vote inefficient,” concluded Maggi. “The Liberals, on the other hand, have leads in seat-rich areas which gives them the edge if an election were held today.”

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