North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with China's President Xi Jinping, in Dalian. KCNA | Reuters

China will be closely watching President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's meeting in Singapore next Tuesday, not least because Beijing's best outcome would be for U.S. troops to get out of the Korean Peninsula, said analysts. "Beijing will be advocating that the price for peace should be a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea," said Hugo Brennan, senior politics analyst for Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy. But first, China may be trying to angle itself back into the game after earlier speculation that the country was responsible for an earlier derailment of Trump and Kim's meeting. That was as Beijing was becoming increasing nervous that a potential reunification of North and South Korea may bring U.S. troops closer to its doors. Despite that risk, suggestions that China wants to "spoil the party at any cost" are "wide off the mark," Brennan said. After all, Beijing has a strategic interest in reduced tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The Chinese also would not want to put Trump's "fire and fury" threat to the test, said Brennan.

"China's original hope was that if there is a deal, a great bargain, China will want to see the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the [Korean] Peninsula, and the dissolution of the U.S.-South Korea [military] alliance. In that case, the Korean Peninsula will return to China's traditional sphere of influence," said Yun Sun, co-director of the East Asia program and director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank. However, Defense Secretary James Mattis said recently at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that any discussion about U.S. military presence in South Korea will be "separate and distinct" from the negotiations with Pyongyang. "That issue will not come up in the discussions with [North Korea] and as you all recognize; those troops are there as a recognition of a security challenge," Mattis said.

The big risk for China

The Trump-Kim summit presents a big risk for Beijing. "Beijing is wary of being side-lined and wants to safeguard its security and geopolitical interests, which explains Kim's second visit to China," said Brennan.

After all, as many have also pointed out, the "nightmare scenario" for Beijing would be a unified Korea allied to the U.S. with American troops based near China's border. So "it doesn't want to see a quick partnership between the U.S. and North Korea" which will undermine China's influence, Sun added.

Still leveraging on North Korea