Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten hit the hustings in Tasmania on Saturday morning for a last-minute blitz as voters headed to the polls for five byelections in four states that will set the course for federal politics for the remainder of 2018.

With backroom strategists saying the critical contests in the marginal seats of Braddon and Longman were too close to call, the federal Labor leader bookended Saturday by campaigning in Queensland as the major parties pushed for every undecided vote.

Despite earlier signs the Liberal party could end a 98-year drought of governments winning seats from oppositions at byelections, polls were pointing to Labor retaining the knife-edge seats of Longman and Braddon, while comfortably hanging on to Perth and Fremantle.

“Let’s be fair dinkum about it, Labor should be miles ahead,” Turnbull told reporters in Braddon, saying the ALP had run a dishonest campaign on health funding and other issues.

“What that tells you is that many (people) ... are disgusted and appalled by Labor’s lies. They really are.”

Shorten, however, was underplaying the latest Newspoll figures, published in Saturday’s Weekend Australia.

“Labor started these campaigns well behind,” he told reporters in Devonport where he was campaigning with candidate Justine Keay.

The Labor party candidate for Perth, Patrick Gorman, casts his vote along with his wife Jessica and son Leo at Highgate primary school on Saturday. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

“Anyone who tells you they know what’s happening is having a lend of you.”

The latest Newspoll puts the two-party preferred figure in Longman and Braddon at 51-49 in Labor’s favour.

The Newspoll found Labor’s primary vote would have risen five points to 45% in Longman if Anthony Albanese was leader rather than Shorten.



In Braddon, the figure was 47%.



In two-party terms, this would translate to a comfortable lead of 55-45 to Labor in both seats.

Shorten dodged direct questions on his future if Labor lost any of the byelections saying the message would be “we didn’t get enough votes. Beyond that, let’s not give up yet”.

Turnbull, who was also in Devonport, took another swipe at candidates who caused the byelections because of dual citizenship issues.

“They’ve got candidates who sat in parliament for months drawing parliamentary salaries at public expense when they knew they were not entitled to be there and now they are running again the same lies they ran in 2016,” he said.

Labor has poured resources into Longman in the closing week of the contest, with a substantial television and radio advertising buy that has made the Liberals anxious. The ALP also secured a late endorsement from Queensland Catholic schools over school funding, and activists were reporting more positive sentiment at pre-poll over the closing days.



While the Coalition is hopeful of engineering an upset in Longman or Braddon – a development that would boost internal morale, rattle the opposition and put Shorten’s leadership under pressure – the Liberals have written off their chances in the South Australian seat of Mayo.

The Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie is widely expected to retain her seat despite a challenge from star recruit Georgina Downer, whose father, a former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, held the electorate from 1984 to 2008.

Given their weak political position in Western Australia, the Liberals did not contest the two seats up for grabs in Western Australia, Fremantle and Perth, in order to stockpile resources for the federal campaign and minimise any negative political fallout for Turnbull.

No Australian government has picked up a seat from an opposition at a byelection for close to a century. The average two-party-preferred swing against an incumbent government at a byelection is between 4% and 5%.

Historically, byelections triggered by MPs with constitutional issues have attracted something of a sympathy vote for the incumbents, but given the spate of contests triggered over the past 12 months, both sides suggest voter fatigue and resentment has ticked up.

The national focal point on Saturday night will be the result of the contests in Longman and Braddon. The outcome in the two seats is complicated by what is expected to be a substantial protest vote.

Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend. See you on the polling booths tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/SRARYpj85C — Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) July 27, 2018

The independent Craig Garland is tipped to be kingmaker in the Tasmanian electorate of Braddon, with the major parties anticipating he could pick up a substantial chunk of the vote – and One Nation’s support in Longman also seems to have held up despite the absence of Pauline Hanson on an overseas holiday, and questions about its candidate Matthew Stephens and his business dealings.

Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley (centre) talk to a voter in Devonport, Tasmania on Saturday. Photograph: Sarah Rhodes/AAP

Labor grabbed Longman at the last federal election with the help of One Nation preferences, but it is possible that Labor could improve its primary vote in Longman in Saturday’s contest but lose the seat if the preference flows from One Nation benefit the Liberal candidate, Trevor Ruthenberg.

Major party strategists regard the One Nation vote as not directable, which means voters do not necessarily follow how-to-vote cards, which increases the degree of difficulty in predicting results.

Underscoring the closeness of the contests, Turnbull in the closing days of the byelections has emphasised the importance of a first preference vote for the government’s candidates in Longman and Braddon.

Turnbull spent Friday on the ground in Longman. Shorten was absent from the hustings to spend time with his daughter.

The contests, triggered by the last vestige of federal parliament’s dual citizenship crisis, have dragged on for 11 weeks, draining party resources and voter patience. Shorten has made eight visits to Longman and Turnbull has been to Queensland five times.

