After two straight wins with my NHL analysis, where I have much more experience, I decided, that I will try to do my best with NFL on Sunday’s.

I am not experienced NFL bettor and there is a lot of room for learning, but in 2017 I decided, that I will create simple predictive model for my followers and I estimate my own lines every week. After couple of weeks, I even put some of my first NFL bets in my investment project, where I am 11-6-1 on NFL picks this season. It is still small sample size and I don’t make any final conclusion, but I like American football. Not sure if I will bet it regularly, because with small sample size it is much harder to predict those games – at least for me. But all my A Journey members will get formulas and the whole method how to calculate the lines for them selves. This is especially very useful if you are already NFL bettor and need to get the first picture about games with my numbers.

So, here we are with the game between New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. This is the game with most votes (you vote for the game and I analyse for you – check available games for tomorrow and I will analyse for you – yes, it is 100% free).

My projected odds and bookmakers lines

The bookmakers opened San Francisco 49ers as a small favourite or in some cases Giants as a -1 favourite, but since then the odds dropped on NY Giants and right now we already have 49ers as a +3 home team.

Cloudbet Nitrogensports Betcoin Sportsbet.io NY Giants -3 (2.02) -2.5 (1.85) -2.5 (1.8) -2.5 (1.80) SF 49ers 3 (1.85) 2.5 (2.056) 2.5 (2.00) 2.5 (2.02)

Based on my model, we have wrong underdog here. I have projected, that San Francisco should be a favourite here for more than one touch down (7.5 points). Because of that, there is a value according to my numbers. But we must include all other information that we have to make a final conclusion. Also the line movement is against me.

New York Giants

Giants are 1-7 this season and they beat only Denver on the road by 23-10. All other games they lost and they are coming to this game after a heavy loss against Rams by 17-51. Based on my numbers, I rank their offence as third worst in whole NFL (30th ranked out of 32 teams). They score 16.1 points per game. They make only 86.8 rushing yards in average and mot of the time they rely on passing from Manning.

However, despite their poor rushing offence, they showed little bit more in this part of the game as Darkwa rushes for 73.5 yards in last 3 games. They will face the worst rushing defence in the league and I believe, that they will try to play something on the ground as well.

Giants defence is second worst in NFL based on my numbers. They allow 25.9 points per game.

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco have worst defence in the league. According to my numbers I rank them as the worst team (32nd ranked) and their weakest part of the game is rushing defence. The good thing is that they will face one of the worst rushing teams in the league – Giants.

But their weakest point is probably their QB. C.J. Beathard is a rookie, who was sacked 14 times in three games. His pass completion is 50% and newly acquired Garoppolo is downgraded to start this game. But let’s check the teams they faced in last 3 games. San Francisco faced Arizona and Dallas at home and Philadelphia on the road. Two of those teams have below league average defences.

Trends and other interesting information

NY Giants are 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings and they are 4-1 ATS in San Francisco. 49ers are 0-10 ATS when the line is within three of pick vs non-divisional opponent when they are off a SU and ATS loss as a dog. Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 away games vs. a team with a negative home record. Giants are 11-5-2 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. 49ers are 7-16 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They are also 2-9 ATS at home in last 11 games.

Conclusion

We will have a game between two weak teams this season. Giants are coming to this game after they were destroyed by Rams at home and here is the chance to collect the second win this season.

On the other side we have a weak team and a rookie QB. Their season is practically over and they also don’t have the best record against Giants in the past. My model gives San Francisco better chance to win this game, but the model could be wrong here, because there were some changes in San Francisco and since they started with new rookie QB, they scored only 10 points in each game.

San Francisco main strength in offence could be their rushing, but they will face a team, that has allowed only 4 rushing TD this season. They are in fact among the best in the league. There are only few teams, that allowed 3 rushing TD this season. Giants are much weaker in pass defence, when it comes to allowing TD. They allowed 18 pass TD this season and with one game less, only Jets allow more passing TD. They are vulnerable team against good passing teams. The good thing for them is that 49ers doesn’t have good passing attack.

But if we check the attacks, Giants scored only 2 TD’s trough the ground (rush) and 12 TD’s through the air. I believe that they will try to play trough the air today as well.

I think this is not the best match up for 49ers here. They have a rookie QB and they scored most of their touchdowns on the ground trough rushing. The problem is that they will face solid rush defence when it comes to TD’s.

Giants are coming to this game after a huge loss and they are good bounce back team in this situation. They also have good record playing against 49ers and I think it will be a tough game for 49ers. It looks like that Giants still have much power with Manning and their pass offence, than 49ers on the other side.

I will stay away from this game as I think there is too much other information against the model and I also don’t like to go against he numbers. But based on the information that I have I would take Giants -2.5.

MY RECOMMENDED PLAY: NY GIANTS -2.5 at Nitrogensports

Check my daily projected lines for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB here or let me show you how you calculate your own lines here.