Breaking Down the Senators and Penguins SensChirp

The first couple rounds of expert predictions are in and as you might expect, not a whole lot of love for the Ottawa Senators.

Every ESPN analyst (or the ones left, anyway) but one is going with the Penguins in the Conference Finals. All but two of the predictors at NHL.com have Pittsburgh. Of course, you’ll recall these are the same people that picked the Bruins and the Rangers. I sort of wonder how many of them have actually watched a Senators game from start to finish this season but that’s besides the point.

Make no mistake about it, the Ottawa Senators are underdogs heading into this series. This Penguins team is talented, deep and just won a Stanley Cup eleven months ago. They were picked by many to repeat this year and there really hasn’t been much of a Stanley Cup hangover. They are damn good.

But…so are the Ottawa Senators. Let’s take a closer look at how these teams match up in a variety of areas and close with a prediction for the Eastern Conference Final.

FORWARDS

The Penguins have two of the best forwards in the game. So, that’s a bit of an advantage. Sidney Crosby (Pageau) is a little banged up obviously (BUT IT’S NOT A CONCUSSION, OKAY?!) but he still looked pretty good last round. Meanwhile Evgeni Malkin is humming along at 1.5 point a game pace and looked dominant at times against Columbus and Washington. They have plenty of depth too with the likes of Guentzel, Kessel and Hornqvist. High-end talent and plenty of depth scoring. And while the Senators may not have the star power that the Penguins do, I think depth-wise, it’s closer than people think. If Turris and Brassard can somehow keep pace with Crosby (Pageau) and Malkin down the middle, the likes of Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Jean Gabriel Pageau and Clarke MacArthur is enough to keep this category pretty close.

ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH

DEFENCE

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Watching Game 7 between the Capitals and Penguins, it was clear that the Capitals had the better blueline. And it wasn’t particularly close. With Pierre McGuire’s buddy Kristopher Letang out of the line up, the Penguins defence core is…vulnerable. Cole, Schultz, Maata, Dumoulin and Hainsey aren’t exactly household names. Although to be fair, they won it all with a similar blueline last year but they had Letang. On the Ottawa side of things, they are legitimate concerns about the second and third pairing but they are mitigated by the fact that the best player on the planet is out there for half of the game. I think Methot/Phaneuf/Ceci/Wideman/Claesson matches up pretty well against the Penguins top 5 but the scale tips significantly in Ottawa’s favour thanks to Erik Karlsson.

ADVANTAGE: OTTAWA

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Penguins power play is always going to be scary as long as they have Crosby (Pageau) and Malkin. Through 12 games in these playoffs, they’ve scored on 21.6% of their opportunities. Meanwhile the Ottawa power play, which has been mindbogglingly frustrating at times, is down to 14.6%. Ottawa’s penalty kill was spectacular during round two and sits 7th overall in these playoffs with an 87.5% success rate. The Penguins kill off 80%. Ottawa’s ability to control that Penguins power play is going to be a huge factor in this series. Staying out of the box is probably the best way to do that and as we all know, Gary Bettman has Penguins pajamas so that could be tricky. We’ll call this one even.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

GOALTENDING

Marc-Andre Fleury is a usually average playoff goalie playing out of his mind right now. Craig Anderson is usually a great playoff goalie and he’s been sort of mediocre to this point. Both Fleury and Anderson were at their best helping their team close out their second round series. Although watching those deciding games, you can see an obvious difference in what these guys look like when they’re locked in. Even though Fleury played well, he seemed like he was all over the place. And actually, that’s often how he looks. Nice smile though. Fleury is capable of stealing a game but he’s also just as likely to lose one for his team. Fleury has looked great at times through the first two rounds but I know which goalie I’d rather have.

ADVANTAGE: OTTAWA

COACHING

In most instances, it would be pretty safe to just give the advantage to the guy that just won the Stanley Cup. Mike Sullivan, who joined the Penguins with just over 50 games remaining in the 2015.2016 regular season, has obviously done a great job getting the most out of this team. Of course that’s pretty easy to do when you have one/two punch of Crosby (Pageau) and Malkin. Sullivan’s team plays fast although at times during that Washington series, they seemed to play a little loose, relying on their goalie more often than you might expect. Meanwhile Guy Boucher, who was robbed of a Coach of the Year nomination, continues to show that his approach (#TheSystem or The Kanata Wall, as it’s known to some) can be successful, especially in the playoffs. He has a .633 winning percentage in the post-season and has won four of the five series he’s coached in. Both teams have fairly well-established Assistants too in Marc Crawford and Jacques Martin. Transition lenses vs. long soulful looks at the scoreboard. It’s all just too close to call.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

INTANGIBLES

Experience is important this time of year and there’s no team with more recent and relevant playoff experience than the Pittsburgh Penguins. They’ve been to the Finals and they’ve won the Cup within the last year and some of the players on that team have done it a couple times in the last decade. They also have the advantage of home ice too if you consider being in the city of Pittsburgh an “advantage”. With that said, there’s a certain resiliency to this Ottawa team that nobody else in the playoffs has been able to match. When counted out in a series, they find a way. When down in a game, they find a way. They just refuse to quit. Adversity has pushed this team to their limits all season long and they’ve consistently found a way. This one comes down to Cup experience vs. a soul. Not exactly sure what intangibles are but I’m quite certain Ottawa’s are up the roof.

ADVANTAGE: OTTAWA

PREDICTION

13 points separated these two teams during the regular season. The Penguins were a +48 in goal differential and the Senators a -2. The Penguins won the Stanley Cup less than a year ago while the Senators haven’t made it this far in a decade. Frankly, it’s easy to see why the majority of the hockey world is defaulting to the Penguins in this series. But you know what? I suspect a lot of the hockey world hasn’t seen much of the Ottawa Senators this year. And I suspect they haven’t been watching all that closely at what Erik Karlsson has been doing in these playoffs. The Bruins found out the hard way. The Rangers were burned too. And now I think the defending Stanley Cup Champions are about to see the best player on the planet, up close and personal. Plenty of star power on both sides here but as is so often the case, this series will be decided between the pipes. It’s going to be close.

OTTAWA SENATORS IN 6 GAMES

ROUND 3 SCHEDULE

Game 1- Saturday, May 13 7 p.m. Ottawa at Pittsburgh- Sportsnet, CBC

Game 2- Monday, May 15 8 p.m. Ottawa at Pittsburgh- CBC, TVA Sports

Game 3- Wednesday, May 17 8 p.m. Pittsburgh at Ottawa- CBC, TVA Sports

Game 4- Friday, May 19 8 p.m. Pittsburgh at Ottawa- CBC, TVA Sports

Game 5- Sunday, May 21 3 p.m. Ottawa at Pittsburgh- CBC, TVA Sports

Game 6- Tuesday, May 23 8 p.m. Pittsburgh at Ottawa- CBC, TVA Sports

Game 7- Thursday, May 25 8 p.m. Ottawa at Pittsburgh-C BC, TVA Sports

Who will win the series and in how many games? Senators in 4

Senators in 5

Senators in 6

Senators in 7

Penguins in 4

Penguins in 5

Penguins in 6

Penguins in 7 View Results