IN EUROPE’S frozen north, two presidents are standing for re-election: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Finland’s somewhat lesser-known Sauli Niinisto. Both are likely to win with huge majorities. Some 70% of Finns back Mr Niinisto, polls say—a Putinesque level of support. Mr Niinisto looks likely to glide to victory in the first round of voting on January 28th. In a world where outsiders and populists are on the march, how does he do it? Unlike Mr Putin, he has none of the advantages of being an autocrat; Finland is one of the world’s freest democracies.

True, the Finnish presidency is mainly a symbolic role, focused on glad-handing foreigners and with little power over internal politics. Yet Mr Niinisto has a reputation for competence at both. As the Speaker of parliament, he won applause by encouraging MPs to travel second-class and book cheaper hotels. When he was finance minister in the late 1990s he slashed public debt from 60% to just over 40% of GDP, tickling the Finnish love of frugality. He also oversaw the transition to the euro.

Mr Niinisto is, besides, a skilled retail politician. He shares details of his private life in tabloids: his much younger wife, a poet, is expecting a baby; his dog recently became an internet star after trying to steal the presidential Christmas ham. Mr Niinisto once called a radio nature show, identifying himself only as “Sauli from Naantali”, to ask about invasive wild parsnips. He roller-blades, too. His closest competitor, Pekka Haavisto of the Green Alliance, has struggled to climb above 10% in the polls. Laura Huhtasaari of the populist-nationalist Finns Party (formerly known as the True Finns) has failed to capitalise on her party’s base.

But luck also has something to do with it. Finland recently emerged from a recession, and is still riding high after the country’s centennial celebrations—which Mr Niinisto largely oversaw—in late 2017. Finland also shares a 1,300km (800-mile) border with Russia. Finns do not want a maverick wrecking the carefully balanced relationship with their scary neighbour. On the world stage, Mr Niinisto has portrayed himself as a messenger between superpowers. Last year alone he met Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Mr Putin. Mr Niinisto says that, as president, the most important thing is to act in a way that won’t “blow the world to pieces”. He is surely right there.