The Exxon deal would be enough to close Putin’s budget gap for decades and let him get on with the business of restoring Russian control to a vast portion of Europe and Asia using the same process that Paul Manafort employed in disrupting Ukraine.

The final step in the “reimperialization policy trajectory” is either the complete annexation of a territory, as it was in Crimea, or the creation of breakaway statelets that, despite their superficial independence, act as de facto Russian protectorates.

In addition to the funds to carry out his expansionist policies, Putin needs two other things. First, he needs a weakened NATO.

Repeating a criticism of NATO he made during his campaign, Trump said that while trans-Atlantic military alliance is important, it “has problems.” “It’s obsolete, first because it was designed many, many years ago,” Trump said in the Bild version of the interview. “Secondly, countries aren’t paying what they should” and NATO “didn’t deal with terrorism.” The Times quoted Trump saying that only five NATO members are paying their fair share.

Trump’s efforts to drive apart the NATO alliance have been consistent throughout his campaign and post-election. During his confirmation hearing, Trump’s candidate for secretary of defense had a very different position on NATO.

Retired Gen. James Mattis, poised to become the first career military officer to lead the Pentagon since the 1950s, said Thursday he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to “break” the NATO alliance that has anchored American and European security for more than half a century. … Mattis said he supports the Obama administration’s moves to reassure European allies after Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region and military activity in eastern Ukraine. While the U.S. should remain open to working with Russia, Mattis said, the prospects for cooperation are narrowing.

Mattis called the NATO alliance the most successful military alliance in history, and reminded the audience that the first time NATO actually went to war, it was to back up the United States following 9/11.

But a united NATO with full U.S. backing is the only instrument that might persuade Putin away from spreading the corrupt, disrupt, invade strategy used in Ukraine to other areas. Trump doesn’t have to scrub NATO off the books. He only has to leave it squabbling, divided, and uncertain that its largest member will really step in when it counts.

The last thing Putin needs from Trump isn’t a short-term concern, but it is a requisite for Putin’s ongoing cash flow. He needs the United States to step away from the Paris agreement on climate change. That would both ensure that Putin could keep selling his Exxon-oil over the long term, and slow the growth of renewable technologies eating into the oil and gas cash that is all Putin has to live on.

Trump has declared recently that he has an “open mind” on the subject, and during Rex Tillerson’s confirmation hearings, the Exxon chief repeatedly used the even more vague “keep a seat at the table,” but Trump has been quite clear about his intentions.

Trump has said he would “cancel” the Paris climate agreement, which was ratified earlier this month and requires a three-year notice period to quit. The president-elect has said he would also cut all money spent on climate change aid to developing nations and slash clean energy funding.

A lifting of sanctions

A weakened NATO

A US withdrawal from the Paris agreement

Maybe Donald Trump is actually telling the truth about the kompromat materials. Maybe he didn’t do all the disgusting things that investigators logged. Maybe.

But it doesn’t matter. Because, whether his arm is being twisted or not, Donald Trump is offering Vladimir Putin exactly what the Russian autocrat needs to be an ongoing expansionist threat to democracy in Europe and around the world.