With a little more than a month left until the NFL Draft, the fan bases of many teams are in a virtual fever pitch of discussion over what player their team should select on May 8th. Many fans have identified areas of need for their favorite team, or a favorite prospect in the draft, and formulated arguments for taking that player, or not taking another. Last week I presented my pick for the Lions at number 10 overall given a specific scenario that I thought wasn’t terribly unlikely. I should say however that my heart would not be broken if that were not the scenario, or pick. With that in mind, I would like to present:

My rules for the Detroit Lions in the

1. Draft the BPA

Best Player Available. It seems like common sense to non football fans. “Of course you want the best player available.” Sometimes, however, BPA and need don’t converge in an alignment of the stars to point out your path. Another non intuitive thing about BPA (I’m only fairly sure of this, and have no evidence to back it up) is that need does in fact play into it. I believe that team front offices have some sort of need based equation that they run their player grades through to come up with a team specific big board. I don’t think need is heavily weighted, but is weighted none the less. What this means is if your team has a solid to stud QB, all QB grades in the early rounds of the draft will be reduced. I do not believe that this need based scale ever increases a players grade, however. So rule number 1, draft the best available player. Common sense, don’t reach.

Matt Millen wondering what the Lions need.

2. Come away with depth

Most draftniks view this draft as one of the deepest in recent memory. The Detroit Lions have 6 selections in the first 136 picks, and lack depth in many places. The Lions need to come away from this draft adding quality depth to the Offensive Line, DE, S, and LB positions. The biggest truth about the NFL is that it isn’t about superstars. It’s about depth. in 2013 the Cleveland Browns had 5 pro bowlers on the roster, they finished the year with a 4-12 record. Sure, the pro bowl is a popularity contest, but of those pro bowlers, four are without question studs, Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, Alex Mack, and Josh Gordon. The Browns lack depth, but have superstar players. Building depth is the key to building winning franchise. The Seattle Seahawks on the other have a roster that reads like a who’s who of 2-5th round picks. Those picks have turned into pro-bowlers, but they were attained by drafting for depth.

Tom Brady was selected for depth.

3. Draft a young Safety

Over night air now costs the same as priority ground, and the NFL has gone pass crazy. The rules of the NFL have changed, presumably in favor of player safety, but these rule changes favor pass heavy attacks. While having good cornerbacks seems the most appropriate way to defend against pass heavy attacks, safeties provide immense versatility. A good safety can roam center field, add to a pass rush, or cover the flat. In addition to the versatility they add, they also serve as the QB for the secondary, calling coverages, and identifying offenses. The Lions recently signed James Ihedigbo to play strong safety (I think this was a mistake by the Lions, but we can discuss that after the draft) leaving Glover Quin to play free safety. James Ihedigbo will be 31 by seasons end, and the Lions will need a replacement on the roster, the sooner the better.

Earl Thomas.

4. Do not trade up until after taking the 2nd round pick.

If Lions trade up for Sammy Watkins in the draft I have every confidence he would be a tremendous player for them. Heck, I get excited just thinking about the possibilities. If the Lions trade up for Khalil Mack, I believe he would be a tremendous player and fill a large void for the Lions. I don’t want the Lions to do this. I want the Lions to stay put and let this draft come to them. This draft is deep. Almost every dratnik agrees. Stay put and add multiple quality players to the roster. What do teams like Seattle, Denver, San Francisco, and Green Bay have in common? They add multiple contributors to their roster through the draft every year. They move up to grab an “elite” player. They trust their scouting and draft for value. The Lions should do the same. Recent blockbuster draft day trades include the the Washington Redskins moving up for RG3 and the Atlanta Falcons moving up for Julio Jones. Both of the players have turned out to be the player that team wanted them to be, but both teams find themselves with big holes on the roster, and are struggling to find ways to fill them. So we can see that even if the player hits, the added cost of the player is likely to be detrimental to the franchise. The Lions added Brian Xanders to the front office late in the draft process last year. That draft, in my opinion, was their best in a decade, possibly longer. Other franchises valued Xanders’ services enough to interview him for General Manager positions. This year, in what once again, is viewed as a very deep draft class, Xanders has had an entire year to help with evaluations. Let’s trust him this year, the year following a draft in which the Lions found Larry Warford in the 3rd rd and Devin Taylor in the 4th.

The Rams also have the second overall selection in the 2014 draft. Is one superstar worth 4 starters and a #2 overall pick?