Wherever I go these days I’m peppered with questions about who is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president and who is likely to win the presidency.

I will always say that I don’t know, that there is no way at this point of knowing, but they often respond: Well, you know more than me.

Yes, I know enough to know that predictions at this point are meaningless and irresponsible. There are so many moving parts that could have a direct and significant impact on the race, and we have no idea how they will pan out, like cases working their way through the courts and the impeachment trial.

But, there are also the things we can’t predict, like a national or international crisis.

Last week, Donald Trump demonstrated the incredible power the president has to create such a crisis with the assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani in Iraq.