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The field for the Conservative leadership could be substantially whittled down today when the first ballot is announced.



The lowest placed candidate and anyone with the support of fewer than 16 MPs are eliminated.



You suspect that Mark Harper, Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey's runs will come to an end.

Rory Stewart could also be among the casualties.



This is shame, thought not because Stewart was going to be an outstanding Prime Minister.



Political commentators, pundits such as Gary Lineker and over-excited centrists have heaped praise on Stewart apparently unaware either of his voting record or that he comes across as Eddie Redmayne playing the love child of Mary Queen of Scots and Kermit the Frog.



The reason we should regret his departure is that he acted as the yardstick for how far the Conservatives have drifted to the right.

(Image: AFP/Getty Images)





As James Kirkup has written here Stewart represents the one nation Toryism whose mantle Boris Johnson used to wear.

The new Boris Johnson , the one who fronted the Vote Leave campaign and picked the brains of Steve Bannon, is very different from the Boris Johnson who once spoke of the benefits of immigration.



A controversial poll this week suggested he would a 140-seat majority in a general election.



A better guide to his electoral pull is the result of the 2017 general election where the majority in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat in West London was cut from 10,695 to 5,034.

(Image: ANDY RAIN/EPA-EFE/REX)





Like many Tories in suburban seats he is victim of changing demographics which have seen Labour spread its base from the inner cities into the outer boroughs.



If Labour commits to a more explicitly pro-Remain stance then seats such as Johnson’s and Iain Duncan Smith’s in Chingford could turn from blue to red.



Johnson was once considered the Heineken Tory who could appeal to voters other Conservatives could not reach.



Now he is contaminated by Brexit and, like the aforementioned beer, he is gassy and lacking in flavour.

Today's agenda:



Here are five facts you need to know today on the Tory leadership race



9.30am - Chris Grayling takes Transport Questions in the Commons.

10.30am - Foreign Office minister Mark Field statement on Hong Kong.



11.30am - Commons leader Mel Stride gives the regular update on House of Commons business.



12.30am (approx) - Matt Western leads backbench debate on social housing.



1pm - Result of the first ballot in the Tory leadership race.



3pm - National Pensioner Convention protest outside the BBC’s Salford centre against the axing of free TV licences for the over 75s.



What I am reading:



Martin Fletcher in the New Statesman on why the Tories are doomed if they elect Boris Johnson as leader



And



Martin Rowson on cartoons, censorship and editorial cowardice