With the release of new Daily Kos polling earlier today, it's no longer accurate to call the Wisconsin recall elections a toss-up. Democrats now have the advantage.

Looking at the six Daily Kos polls conducted in June and July (see here and here), along with two polls the Wisconsin Democratic Party released this month (see here and here), the chart on the right shows where the campaign stands. (In districts where more than one poll is available, the average margin was used.)

Democrats need to pick up three Republican seats to take control of the state Senate, and they lead in three seats. What's more, Democrats are way ahead in one of the six campaigns. This means they only need to win two of the five campaigns that are actually competitive, while Republicans have to win four of those five. That is a significant Democratic edge.

Republicans may publicly scoff at these polls, but advertising expenditures by their corporate buddies show their true feelings are more akin to fear and panic (emphasis mine):

Club for Growth Wisconsin has dumped at least $1.5 million into the recall races, according to the progressive group One Wisconsin Now, which tells me it got the information from its ad tracker. Even more tellingly, the Club has poured a surprising $400,000 into the battle to recall state senator Alberta Darling, who was once viewed as safe, One Wisconsin Now’s executive director Scot Ross tells me. Ross adds that his media tracker found that the Club sank the money into the race right after a Dem poll found that Darling is getting edged by her Dem recall challenger, Rep. Sandy Pasch.

If you are trying to convince people that your ship isn't sinking, don't immediately run below decks and start pumping water.

To be sure, the campaign is still close. A shift of just three points toward Republicans in one district, and they recapture the lead. With an almost unlimited supply of right-wing corporate money at their disposal, Republicans may well be able to make that comeback.

It's up to us to make sure that doesn't happen. Please, contribute $9 to the Wisconsin recall campaign.