Des Moines Register poll: Romney, Bachmann up

The numbers are out from the first Des Moines Register poll of the cycle, and they codify what is becoming conventional wisdom - Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann are rising, and Tim Pawlenty is facing a real uphill battle.

From the AP:

Advertisement Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann sit atop the standings in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent. "She's up there as a real competitor and a real contender," said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. "This would indicate that she's going to be a real player in Iowa." Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent. The other candidates tested register in single digits: former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 7 percent each; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 6 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 4 percent; and former Utah governor and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 2 percent. Pawlenty has spent 26 days in Iowa during this election cycle, has hired an A-list team of Iowa campaign operatives and was the first major candidate to air television ads in Iowa. "If I were the Pawlenty camp, I would be enormously concerned about this poll," said Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6. Veteran campaign watchers caution that it's early: Candidates' fortunes will rise and fall. Indeed, 69 percent of respondents said they could still be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.

The two biggest surprises in the poll are Bachmann's height and Pawlenty's cellar-dwelling.

Bachmann, a native Iowan who is launching her campaign in her birth town of Waterloo on Monday, had been widely seen as a credible contender there, but the numbers from the most-watched poll of the state give her a major boost, and will add to speculation the evangelical Christian could capture a win in the state.

Pawlenty, on the other hand, has been running for president for more than two years and has made repeated trips to Iowa, including in small settings. But he has so far barely moved the dial, and numbers like these won't make luring supporters to Ames for the straw poll to support him any easier. It also isn't going to do much for his national fundraising, with Pawlenty trying hard to make a big push for the final week of the second quarter.

Even Gingrich, a famous former House Speaker whose campaign has been cratering amid a mass staff exodus, headlines about his credit lines at Tiffany and his Greek cruise vacation - and who has barely been to the state in recent months - is faring better in the rankings.

That said, the Register's pollsters were in the field before Pawlenty went on the air with a $50,000 cable TV ad buy on Wednesday in the Cedar Rapids and Des Moines markets, meaning the numbers don't reflect a real push by the former Minnesota governor to boost his support. He also went up with radio ads later last week.

Alice Stewart, a Bachmann campaign spokeswoman, cheerily said, "This is positive news. It reflects what we are hearing on the ground, and sets the stage for our announcement tour starting Monday in Congresswoman Bachmann's home state."

The poll is still a very early - and, some operatives argue, overly-monitored - metric of the movement in Iowa right now.

But without plowing in huge piles of cash, performing well at Ames as a fresh face, let alone getting caucus-goers to support you, is heavily dependent on a candidate's energy and freshness.

So far, with less than two months till Ames, Bachmann is consuming the social conservative, tea party energy in the state - and Cain is gobbling up a large chunk of what remains of that group of caucus-goers.

This article tagged under: Mitt Romney