Hi, everyone! Welcome back to my blog and to my fourth week of Power Rankings for Island of the Idols! This week is gonna be a bit different. I’m going hardball on the castaways this week, because the events of this episode warrant it. A lot of strategy went down, and it’s time to share my thoughts on it!

As a reminder, here’s how my Power Rankings work. Each week I’ll rank the Castaways by tribe based on a few factors: How likely I think they are to go home in the next episode, how much ‘power’ they have in the game (whether that’s physical, social, strategic, or a combo of all 3), and how they performed in the previous episode. I’ll also show how far each Castaway moved up or down in the rankings! There’s not a points system and no big prize at the end for me — this is just for fun! Finally, I’m not spoiled in any way, and I intend to keep it that way. So, PLEASE don’t send me spoilers. That’s not cool.

Another quick note: Sometimes doing these can be tough when certain players (or even whole tribes) don’t get a lot of airtime. It’s tough to work with what I’m given, but I try my best to share my thoughts on everyone!

Here we go!

SPOILER WARNING: IF YOU HAVEN’T SEEN EPISODE 4, “Plan Z”, DON’T SCROLL DOWN PAST THE LAIRO AND VOKAI BUFFS!!! GO WATCH THE EPISODE, THEN COME BACK AND ENJOY!

1: KARISHMA (+5)

Anyone else super surprised Karishma didn’t go home? Um…. wow. Missy, Elizabeth and co. have just handed the swap to Karishma on a silver platter. She’s ready to flip to Vokai, and depending on her new tribe’s makeup, she could be in a fantastic position to further tilt the scales in Vokai’s favor at this point. It REALLY didn’t help that Karishma was obviously the backup vote at Tribal multiple times. That status can easily convince people to flip on their original tribemates. Unless Karishma gets really unlucky, I think her chances of making the merge have skyrocketed. Can she win? I doubt it. But, these kinds of situations can make or break the game for multiple people, and it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

2: ELIZABETH (+1)

Elizabeth was pretty much Missy’s right-hand woman this week. I have absolutely no clue why she decided to go along with the Chelsea vote… if both she and Elaine weren’t ok with it, they could have gotten both Chelsea and Dean and DEFINITELY Tom to vote for Karishma, and boom. But, nah, Elizabeth is sitting pretty either way. She’s got great allies (even though she just voted one out), is loved by her tribe, and is a massive challenge asset (despite the loss this week, that wasn’t really on her). I don’t think she’s going anywhere anytime soon.

3: MISSY (-2)

Everything I expected Missy to do… she did pretty much the opposite of this week. I’m gonna preface this by saying that I LOVE watching ya, Missy, but I’ve gotta take the gloves off for a second. Keeping up the strategic relationship with Aaron is great — he brings up Dean, that weakens the budding relationship with Tom and moves Chelsea closer to you, makes Aaron a bigger target, and solidifies more trust, AND it can bring Karishma closer. But, of course, since ELAINE doesn’t want to vote Dean, you switch the vote to CHELSEA? Someone who was in your core alliance? I mean, it does seem like a Molly situation, but here’s why it’s different — it alienated people a lot less than this vote did. By blindsiding Chelsea you leave Dean out to dry. Karishma is still in with a vendetta against the entire tribe (hence, I think she was the best move both last week and this week), AND everyone pretty much knows this was your move. Plus, further alienating Karishma at tribal is going to focus her vendetta on you. All in all… this puts Missy in a bit of a pickle with the swap coming up. While I do think she is still positioned very well, making a big move that felt really unnecessary like this could backfire. Yes, Chelsea was my winner pick, but if it was literally anyone else, I’d still feel the same. Not voting out Karishma will come back to bite Missy, maybe not now, but soon.

4: ELAINE (-)

One of the things that stuck out to me with Elaine this episode is how she was grappling with the reality of turning on people she liked… and I think that her unwillingness to cut Dean — the backup for the backup — led to the Chelsea vote (which I’m not sure how that’s much different for Elaine, but ok..). Sandra remarked at Tribal that Elaine never knows what’s going on… and while that seems to be the case, it probably helps her right now because nobody really wants her gone, and if she’s not calling the shots, nobody can really get angry at her. I think that the true test for Elaine will come with the swap — she might find it easier voting out old Vokais, but she will also have to charm the pants off of them like she did with the Lairos.

5: AARON (-)

Well, look at that, I was right about something! Aaron and Missy make a dangerous duo (and if people catch on to it, it could spell their doom!), and they took out Chelsea instead of a target that would have alienated pretty much nobody in Karishma or Dean. Spooning someone at camp doesn’t always mean a tight alliance — I know Boston Rob kind of popularized that theory, but it’s probably really cold at night, man. I mean, it theoretically should have been an easy, unanimous vote against Karishma. Pre-Merge, the easy vote is 99% of the time the RIGHT vote (Case in point, leaving Karishma and Noura on the bottom of their tribes will most likely lead to both flipping). But, Aaron wanted Dean, and it all snowballed from there. I mean, if Aaron got Dean out, that would leave Aaron as one of the ‘big strong guys’ (Ok, Dean sucks at challenges but the archetype still stands). Really, there looks like there was a lot of flawed logic to me in the first place. We’ll see how this plays out, but Aaron could face the fire if he gets cockier with the Swap.

6: TOM (+1)

Surprisingly, a great strategy Pre-Merge can also be barely strategizing, depending on the situation. We so so little of Tom, but it’s for a good reason — he’s strategically one-note, just wanting to pile the votes on Karishma. That makes perfect sense as it alienates nobody, makes camp morale a whole lot better, and keeps people in the game who Tom wants to work with. Somehow, though, he voted for Chelsea. I’m really curious as to who changed his mind and how that happened. As it stands, Tom doesn’t have a lot of strategic power, but I do wish more people would listen to his Old-School Survivor mindset. Sometimes playing too fast will get you voted out. I could definitely Tom being the tortoise on the tribe of hares.

7: DEAN (+1)

Oof. Bad episode for Dean. At least he’s still in the game, but he has practically no allies, can’t trust anyone one bit, and now that a swap is coming up, he’s either an easy vote or a great person to work with. I think he’s at the bottom this week unlike Karishma because I see him being swayed back by Tom or Aaron, whereas Karishma will absolutely not. Plus, I think people are going to see Dean as a social threat whereas Karishma definitely is not perceived that way. Again, if we’re learning anything from this season especially it’s that I’m usually very wrong with these rankings… but Dean continues to be in hot water.

1: KELLEE (+2)

Kellee dodged the bullet when Noura went to Island of the Idols — she’s definitely not going to work with her! — but if Noura blabs about what happened now that she lost her vote at the next tribal, it could still harm Kellee’s game. However, with the Swap looming, there’s a chance that Kellee won’t have to deal with those ramifications for a bit if they’re on different tribes. Plus, Kellee still has an Idol that’s good for a few more Tribals, so if she needs it, I think that Kellee will actually play the damn thing (side note: what is it with women finding Idols only to be voted out with them in their pocket? Aubry, Wentworth, now Chelsea? Damn. Love that women are getting the Idols for once but they gotta play them when it counts!). I think that Kellee is in a fantastic spot with the Swap coming up. Also, I LOVE that Kellee read Noura like a book after she came back from IoI and knew exactly what was going on. Finally, putting together that puzzle blindfolded was awesome. Go Kellee!

2: TOMMY (-1)

Tommy didn’t get a lot of content this week, which sucks because I love watching him. I’m pretty sure everything I said last week still stands. I’m really curious to see if Jamal will tell him about his Idol (unlikely…)… it’ll be a test of how well Tommy repaired that relationship. Tommy will also be tested with the Swap — he’ll have to charm over some Lairos now to maintain his power.

3: LAUREN (-1)

Lauren had a shining moment this week, and that was when she stone-cold got everyone to sit Noura out of the challenge. Man, that was both amazing and kind of sucked… because had Vokai thrown the challenge and voted out Noura, it would have been an amazing move that unified the tribe and prevented the inevitable storm of Noura flipping. So… while this was great for Lauren.. it might come back to haunt her.

4: JAMAL (+3)

Jamal’s recovery is moving at a fast pace, but his defining moment was using a methodically slow and calm searching technique (and pulling a JT in Game Changers without damaging his social cred by actually abandoning the tribe out on the raft!) to FIND AN IDOL! So, remember, this Idol is good until the Final 5 unlike Kellee’s Idol. Hopefully Jamal will know when to play it. It’s kind of janky-looking, which could actually be a great way to convince people he has a fake and not a real one… in some world where that would work, that would be fun to watch. Jamal continues to be such a delight now that his villainous episode has passed. I’m really rooting for him to make some new strong connections with the Swap and to find his footing once again.

5: JASON (+1)

Jason is also recovering nicely after his disastrous first few episodes. He was another calming presence to contrast Noura’s whirling dervish of challenge-calling, and that ultimately is what secured the win for Vokai this week. I’m really curious to see how he will do socially in a swapped tribe. I think that Jason could very well be our MVGX David Wright, struggling early on but becoming a powerhouse down the line. I’m here for it. Sorry for pegging you as the first boot, man. Keep it up!

6: JANET (-1)

Janet was purpled this week, which sucks. I hate it when people don’t get content. Anyways, Janet is still tight with Tommy and the girls, so I think she’s going to be great in the Swap, especially if she can pick up Karishma and connect with Elaine. Of course, this depends on how the makeup of the tribes shakes out, but I think that Janet is in no immediate danger — she’s lovable, tough, a great and loyal ally, and super cool. All good things to be at this point in the game.

7: DAN (+1)

Last week I wasn’t very high on Dan… but you know what? Something this episode changed my mind. I think that Dan could be in a much better spot than I thought. This is because Noura is going to be such a unifying vote whichever tribe shes’ on, and Dan gets to start fresh with the Lairos thanks to a Swap. As long as he’s not with Jamal or Kellee, he could be in a good spot. And, if he’s with Noura, he could easily (finally) spearhead her ouster. There are still some things that could go wrong, but I bet he garnered a lot of sympathy being the butt-end of Noura’s calling training regimen.

8: JACK (-4)

Jack was, like Janet, pretty purple this episode. That will change with the swap, I hope. It’s always tough to put people in a spot that really reflects their positioning when there’s not enough content to justify it. Jack seems to be not super attached to anyone, but he looks to be loved by his tribemates. So, that’s why if I had to guess, there’s a huge gap between him and Noura.

9: NOURA (-)

Noura should have gone home. Vokai should have thrown the challenge and voted her out. But, alas… Noura continued down the crazy path this episode — her visit to Island of the Idols fueled her trying way too hard to get put in the caller position, and all for a measly vote blocker… that kind of advantage is practically useless at this stage in the game with larger tribes. If she hesitated or let Boston Rob and Sandra up the ante, that would maybe have been better for Noura. Her zeal led to her tribe deciding that SHE was going to sit out of the challenge, meaning that Noura lost her vote at the next Tribal. Looks like her vote was the one that was blocked! Anyways, now that the Swap is here, if there’s a Vokai majority and by some stroke of luck they want to keep Noura, that would benefit her in this situation. However, Noura wants to flip, but she can’t do a whole lot now without a vote. So, I think that it’s going to take a lot of social clout that she sorely lacks to keep her around, and so I think her chances of surviving are slim yet again. She slips on by… but for how long?

And now, to give my thoughts on the fourth person voted out of Survivor Island of the Idols:

Well, my luck keeps getting better and better. This is now the FOURTH time my Winner Pick was voted out Pre-Merge (RIP to my dreams of Malcolm, Patrick, and Natalia winning). Pretty much all around the same spot as well. Man, this stings. Chelsea is a SUPER-FAN and did practically nothing wrong. I think the only flaw in her game was not doing more to convince people that she and Dean weren’t as close and to pick up on what people like Missy and Elaine and Elizabeth were saying at Tribal as clues that she needed to play her Idol. But, that said, Chelsea seems to have taken it in stride and like Molly and Vince are being very positive after their premature exits. I am so grateful to have watched Chelsea live out her dream (even if it was cut short) and for the inspiration she’s given me to one day apply for the real deal. She was so funny and a great narrator, especially when she found an Idol without even meaning to! Chelsea joins a long list of people I really would love to see get another shot. If you’re reading this, you’re one of my heroes, Chelsea! ❤

Catch episode 5 of Survivor: Island of the Idols, entitled “Don’t Bite the Hand That Feeds You” on Wednesday, October 23rd at 7 PM Central, 8 PM Eastern! Lots of ideas from this title… perhaps we’ll see someone on the bottom presented with a prime opportunity, but completely spurn it? Or, maybe will be set up great from the Swap, but totally blow it? OR, what if someone tries to negotiate with Boston Rob and Sandra too brazenly? I can’t wait to find out. At this point I’m mostly rooting for the Lairos despite their inability to make the easy move that benefits everyone 😛 But, I love pretty much everyone left for one reason or another, so losing Chelsea this early is a tough blow, but I’m still excited!

I’ll see you all on Monday, October 28th, for my Power Rankings for Episode 5! Again, I ask that you PLEASE bear with me as Grad School and life can get in the way, so I might have to occasionally push my posts back a little bit. I hope you all understand!

Finally, I’m still soliciting ideas for re-branding my blog’s url to something better than ‘austinsurvivorstrategyblog.wordpress.com’… so please reach out if you have ideas!

Thanks so much for reading, and if you want to stay updated on the goings-on of the blog, ask me questions, or find out more about me personally, follow me on Twitter!

-Austin