Liberal 'insiders' seem convinced he could be the answer, but the idea of Carney as saviour smacks a bit of Monty Python’s Life of Brian

When Justin Trudeau was confirmed as Liberal Party leader six years ago, he made clear in his victory speech that the infighting between so-called Chrétien Liberals and Martin Liberals was over. “The era of hyphenated Liberals ends right now,” he said.

The slight has never been forgotten by those still hankering for the glory days when they were kings.

Distroscale

A piece Tuesday by respected Toronto Star columnist Chantal Hébert suggested a group of Liberal “insiders” had been strategizing on a conference call to replace Justin Trudeau with the current governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, in the event the party fares badly in October’s election.

The generally accepted explanation among Trudeau loyalists is that the group is made up not of Liberals “insiders,” but rather comprises people left out in the cold by the prime minister’s conscious efforts to distance himself from both the Chrétien and Martin eras. Hébert mentioned the first of two pre-conditions for past leadership tilts has been “a critical mass of malcontents, made up of movers and shakers who feel ignored or shunted aside by the current leadership team.” There is no shortage of those people — even with stakes through their hearts, Trudeau would be advised to wear a clove of garlic around his neck.

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It’s not a completely outrageous idea. Opinion polls taken five months out from a general election are notoriously unreliable but current seat projections have Trudeau losing 50 seats. Carney expressed an interest in politics before taking the BoE job and his term in office ends next January.

But it all smacks a bit of Monty Python’s Life of Brian. The Liberal “insiders” are convinced Carney would be the Messiah, and they’re in a good position to know, having followed a few (take a bow Michael Ignatieff and Paul Martin).

Nobody, it appears, asked Carney what he thinks. One source close to him said the story is “bizarre” and that the governor is “up to his gills” at the moment. With a new British prime minister likely to be in place by the end of July, and the closing date for applications for Carney’s replacement coming early next month, it’s said he does not have much time to think about Canada.

If a Brexiteer succeeds Theresa May as prime minister, as seems likely, it will be an uncomfortable six months for Carney, who was outspoken about the economic risks of Brexit. He has kept a home in Ottawa and it seems likely he will return to Canada next summer. But it is very early days to consider him a realistic candidate for political leadership.

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The story is more instructive about the psyche of the people who wield, or who feel they should wield, influence in the Liberal Party. It has traditionally been a brokerage party, loyal to little but winning — what former senior Trudeau aide Gerald Butts described as a “shark tank, full of self-interested people who wanted to kill each other for marginal advantage.”

That changed somewhat with Trudeau’s sunny ways crusade, an unswerving conviction to “do what is right,” regardless of whether it was popular. But as the prime minister’s polling numbers have tumbled, the sharks have come back. The SNC-Lavalin saga has raised anxiety levels in caucus. There is a sense felt by a number of MPs that Trudeau was found wanting when the crisis hit and that he remains badly damaged. His personal popularity numbers are at a 12-month low, according to Nanos Research, trailing Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and the popularity of his own party. There is a feeling in the broader Liberal movement that he is becoming a liability — the second of Chantal Hébert’s preconditions for a leadership contest.

Trudeau has lost the confidence and loyalty of many Liberals who previously felt him invulnerable. As such, it’s no great surprise that the great, heartless electoral machine that is the Liberal Party of Canada is preparing itself to jettison last year’s Messiah. Even so, Carney is the least of Trudeau’s problems.