Mumbai/Delhi: Three developments last week across three states, two of which go to polls in a couple of months, raise serious questions over the prospects of a mahagathbandhan or a grand alliance among anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parties.

In election-bound Chhattisgarh, ruled by the BJP, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has tied up with former Congress chief minister Ajit Jogi’s nascent, but important Janta Congress. The BSP has also decided to contest all 230 assembly seats in another BJP-ruled state, Madhya Pradesh, effectively rejecting a pre-poll alliance with the Congress.

In Maharashtra, Dalit leader Prakash Ambedkar’s party, Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM), has tied up with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), even as the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are at an advanced stage of talks for a grand anti-BJP alliance.

What has queered the pitch for the idea of a grand alliance is Ambedkar’s categorical refusal to have any alliance with the NCP. Questioning the NCP’s commitment to “secularism", Ambedkar has said that his party may be open to working with the Congress, but there was no question of it tying up with the NCP. NCP chief Sharad Pawar hit back at Ambedkar, saying that the party which “helped the BJP must not preach secularism to the NCP".

The developments, admits a senior Congress leader in Maharashtra, who did not want to be named, are “worrying for the bitterness with which the BSP and BBM have gone their way". “We have repeatedly stated that we will not have any alliance with the Shiv Sena and the AIMIM, even though they are ranting against the BJP. These are not secular parties and we have no association with them. But BSP and BBM are key players in the grand alliance scheme of things and the way they have gone ahead with their own plans is worrying."

Pointing to the bitter war of words between Ambedkar and Pawar, the Congress leader said that though the two leaders were never on good terms, the “confrontation was ill-timed and unnecessary". “We cannot leave the NCP out of the grand alliance and we cannot have the AIMIM in. This would make dealing with Ambedkar very difficult though his influence is restricted to only a few pockets in Maharashtra."

In the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections, the BBM had contested 70 of the total 288 seats and won only one seat with a vote share of less than 1%. It has influence in parts of Vidarbha, but Ambedkar gained some popularity in the wake of the Bhima-Koregaon violence earlier this year.

The AIMIM contested 24 seats in 2014 elections and won two, polling less than 1% votes. The BSP did not win a single seat in Maharashtra in 2014, though it got 2.25% vote share.

However, the BSP is a significant player in Madhya Pradesh and its decision to contest all 230 seats could cause some serious damage to the Congress, say party functionaries and political observers in Madhya Pradesh.

“Mayawati will get a good chunk of BSP votes as well as the anti-BJP votes in Madhya Pradesh. That is why we were keen to tie up with the BSP, but she wanted at least 50 seats, which is way too big a compromise for us. Something could have been worked out if she had waited though," said a senior Congress functionary in Madhya Pradesh, requesting anonymity.

In the 2013 assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, the BSP had contested 227 seats and won 4 with a substantial vote share of 6.29%. The BSP candidates were runners-up on nine seats. An analysis of the 2013 election results reveals a far extensive damage done to the Congress by the BSP. Though the BJP scored a landslide victory, winning 165 seats, and Congress was a distant second at 58, the BSP had a significant vote share in 35 to 40 constituencies, which helped the BJP defeat the Congress.

Madhya Pradesh has 35 constituencies reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates, where the BSP could be a serious contender, says the Congress functionary. Bhopal-based political commentator Girija Shankar is not surprised by the BSP’s decision to go alone. “It was waiting to happen as Mayawati never wanted a pre-poll alliance. Her target for the BSP is to at least retain its vote share of 6.29% in Madhya Pradesh so as to strengthen its case to continue as a recognised national party. Even if the Congress gave her 50 seats, she would not go anywhere close to her 2013 performance."

In Chhattisgarh, too, the BSP’s decision to ally with Ajit Jogi, who wields considerable influence among the Scheduled Tribes (ST), could seriously upset the Congress’ plan to defeat the Raman Singh government, say local Congress functionaries. “Chhattisgarh has smaller constituencies, wherein elections are very tight contests. BSP alone is not a threat, but its alliance with Jogi is, especially on 29 ST reserved and 10 SC reserved seats," said a Chhattisgarh Congress MLA, requesting anonymity.

He pointed out that the BJP vote share in 2013 was 41.04%, which was marginally bigger than the Congress’ share of 40.29%, though the former won 49 seats, 10 more than the Congress. In the 2013 elections, the BJP won 8 seats by narrow margins of 600 to less than 4,000 votes. The BSP contested all 90 seats to win a single seat, but got 4.27% votes.

The Congress feels Mayawati is sending out a strong message, particularly with her alliance with Ajit Jogi. “The developments in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh put a question mark on the future of talks with the BSP over an alliance in 2019. It will have a psychological impact on other alliance leaders who will factor this in during decision making," another senior Congress leader said, requesting anonymity.

The leader quoted above added that Mayawati has a “strong alibi" that she had publicly said that any alliance for 2019 will have to precede the seat sharing in state polls. “We were in talks with her, but officially we did not take any committed stance of announcing an alliance with her in all three states. That puts us, for now, on the back foot."

While the Congress leadership is confident of contesting the state polls on its own, its bigger worry from Mayawati’s move is Uttar Pradesh, and the larger impact on opposition unity.

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