1 July is a big day in the NHL. It marks the start of the new year on the hockey calendar, meaning a boat load of players will see their contracts expire and officially become free agents. That means Friday will likely be the busiest day of the year in terms of transactions, as teams scramble to sign players available to the highest bidder.

It’s going to be a long day. To help you prepare, let’s walk through some of the key questions and answers heading into the annual free agent frenzy.

So free agency is a big deal in the NHL?

Well … sort of. It used to be, back in the 90s and early 2000s. Back then, lots of teams were struggling financially, but a handful were swimming in money and could throw around huge contracts. Rules around free agency were tighter then, and most of the players who reached the market were over 30. But given all the small-budget teams struggling to hold onto talent, that still led to plenty of big names making it to free agency most years.

Fast forward to 2005, and everything changed. The new collective bargaining agreement brought a salary cap to the league, levelling the playing field between haves and have-nots. But it also significantly loosened free agency rules, lowering the age limit to as low as 25. We all assumed this meant the market would be flooded with young stars in their prime. Instead, teams made it a priority to lock up their best talent to long-term deals. Star players like Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, Jonathan Toews and pretty much anyone else you’ve ever heard of have never been unrestricted free agents.

The modern-day market is packed with an assortment of castoffs, has-beens, declining veterans and – every once in a while – reasonably talented players who aren’t really stars but are close enough to get a ton of money thrown at them.

Nobody good every makes it to free agency. Got it. Who’s the best of the options this year?

Well, until Wednesday it was Steven Stamkos. He’s one of the best players in the league, and at 26 is still in his prime.

But you just said…

I know. It’s weird.

Nobody’s quite sure how it all happened, but Stamkos almost made it all the way to free agency, which would have been a game changer. There were rumors that he was headed home to Toronto, or maybe Detroit, or Buffalo, or pretty much any team in the league. Then he re-signed with the Lightning on Wednesday. And barely anyone noticed, because it came right in the middle of the most chaotic half hour in NHL offseason history.

Wait, what else happened?

The Oilers traded Taylor Hall, a superstar winger, to the Devils for Adam Larsson, a reasonably good young defenseman. Edmonton has needed blueline help forever, but the trade was so lopsided that it legitimately seemed like it could be the worst trade of the era. It held that crown for a few minutes, at which point the Canadiens traded PK Subban to the Predators for Shea Weber. Both guys are big ticket, all-star defenseman. But Subban is still in his prime, and Weber has a much longer contract and is, well, worse.

Do all those moves change the landscape?

Absolutely. Stamkos was the guy that many teams were saving a big chunk of cap space for, so him being off the market means everyone now has to frantically shift to Plan B, and lots of money that may have been held in reserve until a Stamkos decision will now be in play.

Meanwhile, the Hall trade means the Oilers must already have a few of their free agent targets locked up, even though that’s technically not allowed. And the Subban-for-Weber trade proves that we are no longer living in a rational universe that follows laws and makes sense. Maybe the Flyers will sign a unicorn on Friday. At this point, we can’t rule any of this out.

And that’s not even getting into the truly important impact of all that chaos, which is that…

You had to rewrite half this article at the last minute, didn’t you?

Shut up.

So who are the best of the non-Stamkos free agent options?

There are a handful of decent players available, especially up front. Power forward Milan Lucic will draw plenty of interest (although reports have said he’s already decided on Edmonton, and you’d assume that must be true given the Hall deal). Wingers Loui Eriksson and Andrew Ladd are risky bets for long-term deals given that they’re both 30, but they’ll have bidders. Blues’ center David Backes is the kind of blood-and-guts player that some playoff contender will fall over themselves to lock up. And Islanders’ winger Kyle Okposo could be the best of the bunch.

None of those guys has Stamkos’s resume, but they’re all good players who’ll draw big money.

Are there any good defensemen available?

The blueline market isn’t as good as up front, especially after two of the biggest names, Alex Goligoski and Keith Yandle, signed last week after the Coyotes and Panthers (respectively) traded for their rights to get a jump in negotiating. But there are a few decent options, and given the importance of the position, they’re going to get paid.

Two soon-to-be-former Dallas Stars, Jason Demers and Kris Russel, will draw interest (although Demers has also been rumored to have already decided on Edmonton). At 37, Brian Campbell’s best days are long behind him, but he could be a great fit on a team like Chicago where he wouldn’t have to do too much. Veteran Dan Hamhuis would be a safe bet, and Justin Schultz would be an intriguing gamble after bombing out in Edmonton but then winning a Cup in Pittsburgh.

And the goalies?

If you’re looking for a starter, you’re kind of stuck with James Reimer and that’s about it. And Reimer isn’t even really a proven full-time guy; he’s never played more than 40 games in a season. But he was very good for the Maple Leafs this year before being traded to the Sharks as playoff insurance, so he’s probably the best option, given that Chad Johnson and Jhonas Enroth are the next tier.

As it turns out, that probably won’t matter much – after the Leafs and Flames both traded for goalies last week, nobody in the league really needs a starter. That should drive prices down, and some of these guys could end up being nice bargains for a lucky team.

So which teams have money to spend?

That’s always a two-pronged question in today’s NHL. Some teams can’t spend much because they’re up against the salary cap (which didn’t increase much this year). Others have plenty of cap room, but work under internal budgets that keep them from being big free agency players.

But most teams do have at least a little money to spend, and some have plenty. That latter group includes the Sabres, Red Wings, Bruins and the Avalanche. On the flip side, the Penguins, Blackhawks and Kings are all tight, and the Maple Leafs have less space than people think given how heavily they were linked to Stamkos.

Remember, teams can exceed the cap by 10% during the offseason, and once the season starts, they can hide money by using the long-term injured reserve. All of which is to say that even teams that shouldn’t have much money available could be big spenders tomorrow. Like a frantic shopper putting everything on a credit card, they have the rest of the summer to figure out how to make it work.

What about restricted free agents?

Most of the attention on Friday will be on the unrestricted free agents who, as the name implies, can sign anywhere they want, but there are some notable restricted free agents hitting the market as well. RFAs tend to be younger, which means they’re often better. But the restriction is that they can only sign offer sheets, with their old team retaining the right to match, so they rarely go anywhere.

Still, there are plenty of very good young players in this category, including Colorado’s Tyson Barrie, New York’s Chris Kreider, and Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba.

So we’ll probably see an offer sheet?

You’re adorable.

No, even though an offer sheet sounds like a perfectly valid way to steal away an opposing team’s young talent (or at least really screw with their salary cap), teams almost never try it; the NHL hasn’t seen an offer sheet in any of the last three offseasons. That’s partly because they rarely work – nine of the last 10 have been matched – and partly because… well, NHL GMs just don’t do this sort of stuff, OK? What do you want them to do, use every tool in their toolbox to actually try to win?

There are always rumors of offer sheets, including one that would see the Bruins go after Trouba. (Please note this rumor makes no sense.) Maybe this is the year some GM finally steps up. But don’t hold your breath.

What’s the dumbest thing a team could do tomorrow?

Let’s be clear: NHL teams are terrible at free agency. The bidding starts, everyone panics, and next thing you know GMs are signing some truly awful deals. Just about any contract announced on Friday, including Stamkos, could end up being a disaster. If you’re committing big money and (even more importantly) term to a player in a cap league, you’re courting disaster.

But there’s a special category of dumb move to watch for Friday: teams spending big on depth. Every year, some team somewhere throws crazy money at a third-liner, often while mumbling about romantic notions like “grit” and “heart” and “compete level”. It literally never works, and often produces some of the very worst contracts that the league has ever seen. But teams keep doing it.

A possible candidate to be this year’s disaster: Matt Martin, a perfectly serviceable player who could help plenty of teams in the league, but is suddenly getting all sorts of buzz as a guy that several teams are in on. If a bidding war erupts over Martin, you’re allowed to laugh.

And what’s the smart move?

Sometimes, as the movie WarGames taught us, “the only winning move is not to play”. Or at least, not to play for the first few weeks.

The early days of free agency tend to be insane, but some serious bargains can emerge after that. Various useful depth guys, faltering veterans, and other useful players can slip through the cracks and wind up chasing jobs as the summer wears on.

These deals are almost always low-risk, medium-reward type transactions. And veteran players on short deals can be especially valuable to rebuilding teams, who can play them higher up in the lineup to pad their stats, then flip them for future assets at the trade deadline.

So the bottom line is…

Tread carefully, be very afraid of long-term deals, don’t pay for heart, sign an offer sheet or two if you’ve got the guts (you don’t), and when all else fails just sit out for a week or two.

(Unless the entire hockey world goes insane for a half hour again. In that case, just do whatever you want and nobody will even notice.)