The United Nation Population Division shows that by 2015, Dhaka will be the fifth largest city of the world with 19.5 million people. There are several examples around the world where countries, especially with transition economies, have gone through a significant decentralisation in governance and economic activities.

The evil of concentrating on a particular geographic area of a country has been portrayed in Hard Times and Great Towns. The Industrial Revolution not only gave economic prosperity to England but also brought about inhumanity and indignity to human lives. Mono-concentration and uneven growth in a country leads to increase in inequality and promotes social demoralisation.

Triumph of the Cities delineates how and why cities are the centre of attraction. It says cities are a sign of economic success and a generator of wealth. In rich countries it is cities that drive economic growth and prosperity. For example, if the whole of the US was as productive as New York, the size of the country's economy would increase by 43%.

The rise of modern urban communities began with the growth of commerce and the discoveries of the Portuguese and Spanish navigators. England was the first great commercial manufacturing nation and became highly urbanised by the middle of the nineteenth century. The US and Germany made rapid progress in industrialisation and urbanisation from 1851 to 1891. The competition between rival industrial-urban nations was one of the chief causes of World War I.

After 1920, Russia, Italy, and Japan endeavoured to develop self-sufficing industrial-military systems, thereby increasing the population of their great cities and heightening the tension, leading to World War II. The prospects for continued urban centralisation are not favourable, for the victory of one group of nations tends to inhibit the growth of urbanism in the defeated states.

We all know Dhaka could become a "wasteland" soon, but we all are rushing towards it. People come to Dhaka for business, job, education, health care, etc., but some come here without any meaningful reason. Over-population, traffic jam, shortage of utility services, worsening law and order situation, emergence of concrete jungle in an unplanned manner, proliferation of slums are gradually making the city unlivable.

The urban functions that once contributed to urban centralisation, namely, (1) centralised governmental power, (2) defense, (3) religion, (4) amusement, (5) trade, (6) industry, (7) transportation, (8) finance and banking, and (9) utilities are now promoting urban decentralisation in the form of the exodus of the residential population from central areas to the periphery of cities.

From 1975 to 2000 both the population and the area of Dhaka city have increased by 7%, but now the rate is undoubtedly much higher and the rise of housing industry is one of the major agents in this regard. About one-third of Bangladeshis live in urban areas; at the current growth rate, it is projected that by 2040 the total population will balloon to 230 million people, where 52% will live in urban areas. When, according to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) (2011), the population growth rate of Bangladesh is 1.566%, the urban population growth rate, according to the World Bank (2010), is 2.85%.

BBS says that annually 3,00,000 to 4,00,000 people, mostly poor, are added to the total population of Dhaka city, which alarmingly has 27,700 people in 1 square kilometer. The World Bank projected in 2007 that the population of Dhaka city will grow to 20 million in 2020, making it the world's third largest city.

Accommodation of this increasing population has been a crucial challenge for the governments as well. And when a city cannot accommodate its population, i.e. cannot provide them with accommodation or shelter or utility services, it becomes more dangerous when urban safety is concerned.

Bangladesh wants to stimulate the private sector to invest in infrastructure. This means that poor people will have to pay more for their water, electricity and waste collection. However, if cities want to be centres of economic development they need this infrastructure. So, it is a great problem for the country and the policy makers. But this issue can be addressed in either of the two ways: empowerment of the local institutions and local government and investment in the rural services, especially in education, utilities, health facilities etc. If people can have the standard services and they are accommodated in the rural economy, they will not move to Dhaka or other urban areas.

The writer is a Development Researcher working for an international NGO. E-mail: mithunmds07@gmail.com