FIGHT TONIGHT: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, wrapping up his week-long trip to Indonesia and Vietnam, told reporters traveling with him back to the U.S. that military options are ready to go if North Korea attacks, invoking the “fight tonight” motto of the U.S.-South Korean military alliance.

“We could fight tonight, shoulder-to-shoulder with the Koreans — or South Koreans, if they're attacked,” Mattis said on his plane en route to Hawaii, saying military options for the defense of South Korea have been in place and constantly updated since 1953, when the war ended with an armistice, not a peace agreement. “They exist so that the diplomats speak from a position of authority, that they have to be listened to, because an attack on the Republic of Korea will be severely rebuffed if it's attempted,” Mattis said, while insisting a diplomatic resolution is still the most desirable outcome. “This is still in the diplomats' hands, as you know.”

Mattis also said he wasn’t worried about Kim Jong Un trying to strike a separate deal with South Korean president Moon Jae-in in an effort to split the 64-year old alliance. “I believe President Moon is the one who said, from their government, that if the North wants to bring up other issues outside the Olympics, they'll be told, ‘No, the right people are not in the room.’ ”

PRUDENT PREPS: At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller confirmed that preliminary planning for possible war on the Korean Peninsula has been underway for some time. “I think the biggest thing everybody’s done is just look at, get familiar with the geography, get familiar with the plans and do some logistical preparation that’s just prudent,” Neller said at an event yesterday morning. He said U.S. commanders have reviewed “force deployment options,” and focused training on likely wartime scenarios. The message to Kim: “You don’t want to do this. You really don’t want to do this.”

THEY HAVE A DRAGON: Neller, who recently told U.S. Marines exercising in Norway that there was a “big-ass war” coming, explained that he’s just trying to impress upon his troops that they need to be ready for the fight of their lives, if it comes. “I go out and talk to Marines. I try to break it down for them as simple as I can,” Neller said. “I wasn’t predicating. I wasn’t saying it was going to happen. I hope it doesn’t happen. I don’t want it to happen. It would not be good for anybody.”

Asked about reports he described the prospect of all-out war on the Korean Peninsula as akin to a coming climactic battle from “Game of Thrones,” Neller said, “I could come up with all sorts of analogies to that.” Clearly a fan of the HBO fantasy series, Neller said, “They haven’t started this year’s episodes of Game of Thrones so I really don’t know how it’s gonna turn out, other than the Army of the Dead has made it across, they have torn down the wall, and they got a dragon.

“So there’s a dragon over there, and I think we know what it is,” he said in an apparent reference to North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

THE TURKEY ‘DISTRACTION’: Distraction was the word of the day yesterday regarding Turkey’s week-long offensive in northern Syria, aimed at clearing out Kurds supported by the U.S. from along its border. The word was liberally employed at both the Pentagon, the State Department, and by Mattis on his plane talk with reporters. “Our concern is, is this going to be a distraction from crushing ISIS at this point in time?” Mattis said. “ISIS is not finished. … We're trying to keep a focus on some very tough fighting down on the Euphrates River Valley, several hundred kilometers away. And yes, we are concerned this will be distracting.”

Mattis said the U.S. is engaging with Turkey through military-to-military contacts, as well as the foreign minister, secretary of state, and at the presidential level, and he said it does appear Turkey has slowed its offensive slightly. “The pace of the Turkish airstrikes have moderated from the first day. I think that would be the best answer for you.”

“We are not in a crisis,” said Dana White, chief Pentagon spokesperson at a briefing for reporters. “Turkey is an ally, and we are going to work with them, but this current issue, the offensive, is a distraction.”

THE PENTAGON’S FEAR: At the Pentagon, officials said while the U.S. is not training or providing support for the specific Kurdish factions under assault from Turkey in the Afrin region of Syria, the concern is that Kurdish fighters battling ISIS farther to the east will feel the need to leave the battle and return to Afrin to protect their homes and families.

“If someone leaves the fight against ISIS and goes somewhere else, that’s one less person in the fight against ISIS,” said Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, director of the Pentagon’s Joint Staff. “That’s a powerful concern for us, and we would seek to try to prevent that, first of all by assuring all parties that there is no reason to go back and fight in Afrin, and we will continue to work that with our partners on the ground in the Euphrates River Valley.”

THE STATE DEPARTMENT’S PUSHBACK: At the State Department, spokesperson Heather Nauert rejected Turkey’s alternate narrative about what was said when President Trump spoke by phone to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “I think the president was clear, I think the president was tough,” Nauert said, saying she wasn’t surprised that Turkey disputed the White House account that said Trump “expressed concern about destructive and false rhetoric coming from Turkey.”

“On behalf of the State Department and also the White House, we stand by that statement. We stand by the readout and the contents of that call,” said Nauert, who earlier in her briefing had some harsh words of her own for the NATO ally. “In Turkey, we remain seriously concerned about the widespread arrests and pre-trial detention of journalists critical of the Turkish government. We urge Turkey to end its state of emergency, respect and ensure freedom of expression, fair trial guarantees, judicial independence and other human rights and fundamental freedoms, and release those journalists and others who are held arbitrarily under emergency rule,” she said.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten ( @travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown ( @dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

EARNINGS WATCH: Defense contractors are releasing their fourth quarter earnings this week and next.

Northrop Grumman saw better than expected quarterly sales partly based on its sales of F-35 components, Reuters reported. General Dynamics missed sales expectations. But both defense contractors expressed concern about Congress not passing a defense budget. “We’re about a quarter of the way through the fiscal year. And if as challenging as this might be on the industry side, the real pain here, and I mean, Pain with a capital P, is on our customers’ side,” Northrop Chief Executive Wes Bush said. “This has gotten to a ridiculous point and we’ve got to get it solved.”

Meanwhile, the Arizona Daily Star reported that Raytheon posted record revenue in the last quarter of 2017 with 8 percent growth, led by its Missile Systems operation in Arizona.

United Technologies has a sunny outlook on 2018 profits as it cranks up production of new geared turbofan jet engine, Bloomberg reported.

Lockheed Martin will be releasing its earnings on Monday and Boeing will follow on Wednesday.

HAPPENING TODAY: Mattis is at the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Command in Honolulu, Hawaii, where he meets this morning with PACOM Commander Adm. Harry Harris, as well as with South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo. Mattis says he is in constant contact with his South Korean counterpart, and his Asia trip was an opportunity to talk face-to-face. “When I saw I was going to be out here, [Song] said ‘Do you want to see me?’ I said ‘Let's cut the travel time for both of us and meet in Hawaii.’ So that's why it's going on.”

SWATTING AT HORNETS: Can you have too many fighter planes? Yes you can, if you’ve got new planes coming and don't have the money or time to maintain the old ones. That’s the dilemma facing the Marine Corps as it begins to integrate more F-35s into the fleet, and aging F/A-18 Hornets are becoming more of a burden than an asset. “Right now we’ve got too many Hornets, too many airplanes,” Neller lamented at the CSIS event yesterday. “We need to get rid of them, because we don’t have time to fix them.”

Asked later for a clarification, Neller explained, “You get to a tipping point. I’ve got these airplanes, and I’m going to get F-35s, and we’ve got a lot of airplanes. At some point we’ve got more planes than we need.” Neller said of the old F/A-18s, some may be sold or sent to the boneyard, while others will be used as a “parts pool” to keep other Hornets flying.

HOUSE DEFENSE BILL, REDUX: The Senate may or may not be close to striking an overdue deal to fund the Pentagon this year. The fourth continuing resolution of the fiscal year is set to expire on Feb. 8 and senators are still wrangling over funding figures and immigration reform. So the House Appropriations Committee gave the chamber a nudge on Thursday. The committee re-introduced a 2018 defense appropriations bill that House members passed last year. “It is past time that this essential, must-pass Department of Defense funding bill is enacted into law. Congress must act responsibly and quickly to get these dollars out the door and where they are needed as soon as possible,” said Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, the committee chairman.

The House bill includes $584 billion in base Pentagon funding and $75 billion in the Overseas Contingency Operations account. The committee said it is “fully consistent” with the $700 billion National Defense Authorization Act that was passed by Congress and signed into law last month. “This important legislation reflects what our military leaders have recommended in countless meetings and briefings and demonstrates our commitment to restoring military readiness, force modernization efforts, and maintaining technological superiority on the battlefield. After years of cuts, it’s time to rebuild our military,” said Rep. Kay Granger, who is chairwoman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee.

JAMES CONFIRMED: The Senate has voted 89-1 to confirm R.D. James, who is Trump’s pick to head the Army Corps of Engineers. He is the 34th Pentagon confirmation since Trump took office. James, who is an assistant secretary of the Army, will oversee Corps projects including hurricane recovery efforts. Before coming to Washington, he was the general manager of cotton, land and equipment companies in Missouri and also served as a long-time civil engineer member of the Mississippi River Commission, which operates under the Army Corps of Engineers.

RYAN TALKS THREATS IN ABU DHABI: House Speaker Paul Ryan told allies in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday that the United States is ready and willing to take on challenges in the region. “For too long, American leadership has been lacking in the Middle East. In that vacuum, others have filled the void,” Ryan said at a stop in Abu Dhabi. “But that is changing. The way I see it, we do not have a choice but to lead.” The speaker is leading a congressional delegation in the region that includes Rep. Mac Thornberry, the House Armed Services chairman. A strong military will be key to the U.S. strategy, Ryan told the Emiratis. “Back in Washington, we in Congress are working to provide the military with tools and resources that are required stay ahead of the challenges we face today. My top focus is ensuring that the Department of Defense, under the leadership of Secretary Mattis, is second to none,” he said.

The Islamic State, al Qaeda and Iran top the list of U.S. concerns. “First, we must continue stepping up the fight against ISIS,” Ryan said. “There is no question that this administration inherited a fight against ISIS that was not being fought as aggressively as it could have.” He told the Emiratis that Iran poses an existential threat to them as well as Saudi Arabia, where Ryan met with King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud on Wednesday. “The Trump administration’s comprehensive Iran strategy seeks to hold the regime accountable for its litany of destructive activities — and more importantly, is taking concrete steps to roll back Iranian expansion. Now we all need to work together to implement this strategy,” Ryan. The U.S. is focused on stopping Iran from establishing new “Hezbollah-like” terror groups in the region and from securing territory that reaches into Syria, he said.

TRANSGENDER LAWSUIT FILING: Plaintiffs in a federal lawsuit against Trump have asked a Washington state district court to expedite a ruling and permanently stop the military from instituting a ban on transgender troops. “Every single federal court to look at President Trump’s policy has already found that it reeks of undisguised and unlawful discrimination against qualified transgender people willing and able to serve our country, and it’s time to put the nail in the coffin for that policy,” said Peter Renn, a senior attorney with the Lambda Legal rights group sponsoring the lawsuit. The request for summary judgment in the Karnoski v. Trump case could put an end to the first round of the legal fight over the ban Trump announced in July. Federal judges have already granted injunctions in three federal lawsuits that temporarily block a ban. That allowed the military’s first transgender applicants to begin filling out their paperwork this month. Meanwhile, Mattis is set to finalize a new transgender policy next month based on Trump’s ordered ban.

NO HELP FROM THE HAWAIIAN BUTTON-PUSHER: The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency employee who sent out an erroneous warning of an incoming ballistic missile on Jan. 13 is refusing to cooperate with the ongoing investigation by the Federal Communications Commission.

During the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday, Lisa Fowlkes, head of the Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau at the FCC, said she is "disappointed" that the person who mistakenly transmitted the alert was not cooperating. "We hope that person will reconsider," Fowlkes said.

FLYNN LIKELY CURBED IRAN MISSILE TESTS: Iran appears to have scaled back testing of its nuclear-capable, medium-range ballistic missiles last year due to a threat by former national security adviser Michael Flynn, a new study by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies has found. A year ago, Flynn stepped in front of news cameras at the White House and declared that Iran was “on notice” following missile tests that the administration considered highly provocative. “It is highly likely that the administration’s threat intimidated Tehran, altering its flight-testing calculus,” wrote Behnam Ben Taleblu, the study author who is a senior Iran analyst at the foundation.

Tehran has conducted 23 total missile tests since signing the U.S.-brokered nuclear deal in 2015. The medium-range missiles were the most-tested variety and considered most threatening because they can carry a nuclear warhead and reach U.S. bases in the region, the study found. Since Flynn’s warning, Iran conducted only one test of a medium-range missile, Taleblu found. “In fact, a hardline Iranian outlet quoted an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official who complained that the [satellite launch vehicle] test was delayed due to fears over the potential American response,” he wrote. Overall, the study found Iran cut its tests of nuclear-capable missiles in half, with 4-5 tests last year versus 10-11 tests in 2016.

MIXED SIGNALS ON JERUSALEM: At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump congratulated himself for taking Jerusalem “off the table” for purposes of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. “There were never any deals that came close because Jerusalem would — you could never get past Jerusalem,” Trump said at an appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “So when people said, oh, I set it back, I didn't set it back, I helped it. Because by taking it off the table, that was the toughest issue.”

Netanyahu was quick to agree. “People say that this pushes peace backward,” Netanyahu said. “I say it pushes peace forward, because it recognizes history, it recognizes present reality. And peace can only be built on the basis of truth.”

But over at the United Nations, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley had a different message. “We have done nothing to prejudge the final borders of Jerusalem,” Haley said during yesterday’s meeting of the Security Council. Haley was disputing complaints from some other countries that Trump had scuttled the possibility of peace talks by his recognition of Jerusalem.

U.S. officials have maintained since Trump’s December announcement that it doesn’t preclude the formation of a Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem.

MAY LIKES TRUMP: In Davos, Trump also appeared with British Prime Minister Theresa May, and disputed the idea that there are any cracks in the special relationship between the two longtime allies. “I have a tremendous respect for the prime minister and the job she's doing,” Trump said. “The prime minister and myself have had a really great relationship.”

Turning to May he said, “We have great respect for everything that you're doing. And we love your country. We think it's really good.”

May was equally complimentary, not mentioning the recent tension between London’s mayor, and some opposition Labor Party members. “As you said, we had a great discussion today. And we continue to have that really special relationship between the U.K. and the United States. In fact, stronger because we both face the same challenges across the world, and as you say, we're working together to meet those challenges.”

May has faced pressure from within her own government to disinvite Trump from visiting the United Kingdom this year. Their relationship was jeopardized late last fall when the president shared a series of anti-Muslim videos from a far-right British political group, prompting May to publicly censure him.

NEW THIS MORNING: Trump, in an interview with Piers Morgan, said, “If you’re telling me that these are horrible, racist people, I would certainly apologize if you’d like me to do that.”

KISSINGER’S MCCAIN MEMORY: Elder statesman Henry Kissinger came to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday to bestow his advice on a raft of global security threats. But he began his testimony with a story about Sen. John McCain. The chairman was absent from the hearing as he battles brain cancer in Arizona. The 94-year-old Kissinger, who served as secretary of state under Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, said he was in Vietnam in 1973 when McCain was released after more than five years as a prisoner of war. “I had been in Hanoi that day and they had offered to let me take him on my plane back to the United States and I refused on the grounds that nobody should get special treatment,” said Kissinger, who had entered the Senate chamber moments earlier amid a crowd of photojournalists.

But he said the two spoke again after McCain’s release, when they had both returned to the United States. “When I met him here at the White House, he came up to me and said ‘Thank you for saving my honor,’” Kissinger said. “Sen. McCain has preserved the honor of our country as a great warrior but also as someone who whenever you meet with him about the unjustly persecuted, he made it clear that America was on their side and that he was not simply a warrior but a defender of our values.”

McCain appeared to be watching from Arizona and was tweeting out comments and links to the hearing, which also included testimony from George Shultz, the secretary of state under former President Ronald Reagan, and Richard Armitage, the deputy secretary of state under former President George W. Bush. “America needs the leadership, wisdom and experience that only statesmen of this stature can provide. The committee is grateful for their service and continued voices of reason during these troubling times,” McCain tweeted.

THE RUNDOWN

Reuters : Despite sanctions, North Korea exported coal to South and Japan via Russia - intelligence sources

Wall Street Journal : Iran's 'Fast Boats' Stop Harassing U.S. Navy, Baffling Military

Defense News: Pentagon’s weapons tester slams new F-35 modernization plan as unrealistic

AP: Putin hails upgraded Russian strategic bomber

Washington Post: U.S., Pakistan Are Estranged, But Neither Wants A Divorce

USNI News: Air Force: Multi-Domain Battles Requires New Mindset to Coordinate Future Air, Land, Sea Forces

Politico: Shultz warns Congress against low-yield nuclear weapons

Defense Tech: Orbital ATK Gears Up for Launch of 'Hatchet' Smart Munition

Foreign Policy: Mike Pence’s Crusade in Iraq

Roll Call: Hawaii’s False Missile Alarm Raises Question of Federal Control

Task and Purpose: Marine Commandant Cites Flying Hours As Major Factor In Aviation Mishap Crisis

Stars and Stripes: Pentagon won’t say if it will move US troops as Turkish offensive in Syria eyes Manbij

USA Today: The Doomsday Clock just ticked closer to midnight

Calendar

FRIDAY | JAN. 26

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Sustaining U.S. Leadership Against Nuclear Terrorism and Proliferation: Monitoring and Verification in the Digital Age. hudson.org

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Visit to the US and the UN - Assessment and Outlook. atlanticcouncil.org

MONDAY | JAN. 29

10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. U.S.-Qatari Military-to-Military Relations. heritage.org

11:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A Conversation with U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen. wilsoncenter.org

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Maritime Strategy in a New Era of Great Power Competition. hudson.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia’s Electronic Warfare Capabilities to 2025. csis.org

1 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Korean Unity at Pyeongchang: Prospects for Dealing with North Korea. wilsoncenter.org

TUESDAY | JAN. 30

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Readying the U.S. Military for Future Warfare. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Hart 216. Situation on the Korean Peninsula and U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific Region. armed-services.senate.gov

3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book launch of Vietnam's American War: A History. wilsoncenter.org

WEDNESDAY | JAN. 31

1 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Regional Stability: U.S.-Turkey Strategic Alliance and Cooperation under NATO with retired Gen. James Conway, former commandant of the Marine Corps. press.org

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Tet Offensive: Lessons from the Campaign After 50 Years. csis.org

THURSDAY | FEB. 1

9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Strategic Significance of the South China Sea: American, Asian, and International Perspectives with retired Adm. Gary Roughead, former chief of naval operations. hudson.org

10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Direction of Russian Politics and the Putin Factor. atlanticcouncil.org