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Any information about modelling was privy to cabinet confidentiality, came the ministry’s reply. But included in the email was a study the ministry had done in mid-2015. Its conclusions: If foreign buyers made up five per cent of the market, and if prices fell by 10 per cent due to the tax, roughly “$60 billion in home equity would be lost, averaging about $85,000 per homeowner in the Greater Vancouver area.”

It also cited Singapore’s experience with a 15 per cent tax, which, the ministry admitted in its email, had served “in part” as the government’s model.

“In terms of affordability,” the 2015 study stated, “Singapore is not a success story. Singapore has managed to halt a rapid increase in house prices. However, an individual unable to afford a home in 2009 remains unable to afford a home in 2015. The growth of house prices in Singapore over that period outpaced the growth in incomes.”

That was a year ago. The market changed in that time, and so did the public’s impatience with the government’s unwillingness to act. I asked if there was a more recent projection. In reply, I was sent an updated ministry forecast released in September. Its conclusions:

Property transfer tax revenue will fall $500 million for 2017/18, and another $100 million for 2018/19.

The 15 per cent foreign buyers tax will bring in $255 million for 2017/18, and the same in 2018/19.

“As you can see,” a ministry spokesman wrote, “our forecast is for government revenue from property transfer tax to decline, a return to more typical levels of housing starts, and a total number of unit sales of about 40,000 per year in 2017 and 2018, with a reduced rate of foreign buyers in the market compared to the information we have between June 10 and Aug. 31.”