The 2013 NFL season is almost upon us: Following on from our preview of the NFL's American Football Conference it's the turn of the National Football Conference. At the bottom of this article, you will also find our pick for Super Bowl XLVIII.

Teams listed in order of projected finish

NFC East

1) Washington Redskins

Last season: 10-6

This might be the toughest division to call in the whole league. Three of the four teams involved look capable of posting a winning record, yet none of them seems likely to be dominant. I could imagine the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins all going 9-7 more easily than any one of them going 12-4.

I'm taking Washington to win the division, but that pick comes with a pretty big asterisk. If Robert Griffin III were to reinjure his surgically-repaired left knee, then they could conceivably plummet to last place. Kirk Cousins is a perfectly serviceable NFL back-up, and performed well in relief last year, but he is not an equivalent player to RGIII.

The Redskins will hope for another strong year from running back Alfred Morris, whose 1,600 yards rushing as a rookie are too often forgotten amid the Griffin hype. Washington's defense will benefit from the return of Brian Orakpo, but concerns remain about a flaky secondary – despite the team's efforts to address that area in the draft.

2) New York Giants

Last season: 9-7

Expectations are modest for the Giants this year; under Tom Coughlin that is generally when they are at their most dangerous. The team's biggest move this offseason was signing Victor Cruz to a new five-year contract, thereby avoiding any training camp holdout by the receiver. If he and Hakeem Nicks stay healthy, Eli Manning should be able to do plenty of damage in the passing game.

Much like Washington, New York's biggest problems are on the other side of the ball. This team badly needs Jason Pierre-Paul to play at his best, upgrading the pass rush and helping to mask the team's problems in coverage. But the defensive end is coming off back surgery this summer, and might not be ready for week one.

3) Dallas Cowboys

Last season: 8-8

The Cowboys have enough talent on their roster to be a play-off team. Tony Romo is a good quarterback – even if perhaps not as good as his new $108m contract might suggest. He has excellent receivers to throw to in Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, and his team should be better on the other side of the ball, too, after replacing defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan with Monte Kiffin.

And yet, how are we supposed to get behind a team whose owner spent the offseason pressuring his head coach into giving up play-calling duties? These Cowboys are too dysfunctional to play up to their ability. Oh, and the offensive line is a mess, too.

4) Philadelphia Eagles

Last season: 4-12

If Garrett has been undermined by his owner, then the new Eagles head coach Chip Kelly seems to have fate itself working against his team. Philadelphia lost four players to torn anterior cruciate ligaments in preseason – including Jeremy Maclin, their top receiver from last season.

Michael Vick has been named as the starting quarterback once again, and it remains to be seen whether the Eagles can do a better job of protecting him. The defense may suffer some teething problems as it adjusts to a new 3-4 formation, but can't be a whole lot worse than it was the last time around.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Photograph: Adam Hunger/Reuters

1) Green Bay Packers

Last season: 11-5

Life is going to keep getting tougher in the NFC North. Green Bay finished just one win ahead of Minnesota and Chicago last season, and both teams appear to have strengthened during the offseason. Detroit, meanwhile, are a better team than last year's 4-12 record would suggest.

The Packers, though, have Aaron Rodgers, and that fact alone will carry them a long way. Statistically the best starting quarterback in the league last year, he has steered his team to at least 10 wins in each of the past four seasons. There is no good reason to believe that he will fail to do so this time around. His favourite target, Greg Jennings, might have departed, but Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and James Jones represent a solid set of fall-back options.

Green Bay's offense should in fact be more balanced, too, with second-round draft pick Eddie Lacy expected to provide immediate improvement at running back. The question, as so often, will be whether their defense is good enough to stop opponents from hanging on in a shoot-out. Having Clay Matthews available for all 16 games certainly wouldn't hurt.

2) Chicago Bears

Last season: 10-6

This might be Jay Cutler's last shot in Chicago. The quarterback has been up and down for the Bears, and often in the most literal sense possible, since he has been sacked nearly three times per game over the past three seasons. This year the team has taken significant steps to address that issue, with four new starters across the offensive line, and new head coach Marc Trestman will be watching closely to see how the quarterback fares behind this new group.

The defense has lost its emotional leader in Brian Urlacher, but the linebacker had lost a step and no longer dominated a game as he once had. The man who was supposed to replace him, DJ Williams, has missed most of preseason with a calf injury, but this unit is still expected to be one of the best in the league.

3) Minnesota Vikings

Last season: 10-6

Adrian Peterson defied all reasonable logic last season, returning just nine months after a cruciate ligament tear and rushing for 2,097 yards. Only one player – Eric Dickerson – has ever rushed for more than 1,800 yards in consecutive seasons, and as special a player as AP is, you would have to expect some regression.

Have the Vikings strengthened sufficiently elsewhere to make up the difference? Right now it is not clear. Free agent wide receiver Greg Jennings and first-round draft pick Cordarrelle Patterson should together represent an upgrade over the departed Percy Harvin at the position, but it remains to be seen whether Christian Ponder can get the ball to them. On defense, the decision to release cornerback Antoine Winfield might come back to bite this team.

4) Detroit Lions

Last season: 4-12

Like AP, Calvin Johnson is likely to see his numbers fall somewhat after a record-breaking 2012. For the Lions, it will be good news if they do. That would mean that they have succeeded in diversifying an offense that was far too one-dimensional last year, with Stafford throwing a staggering 205 passes in the direction of his No1 receiver.

The acquisition of Reggie Bush – fresh from two strong years in Miami – should help towards that end. With Ziggy Ansah added to an already menacing defensive line, the Lions will win more games than they did last year, but might still finish up at the foot of a division where no team looks likely to be a pushover.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons beat the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC divisional playoff game earlier this year. Photograph: David Goldman/AP

1) Atlanta Falcons

Last season: 13-3

It is no secret that the Falcons believe they are ready for a Super Bowl run. They thought so last year, too, but the team's actions since the end of last season have been geared towards short-term success. First they persuaded tight end Tony Gonzalez to come back for one more year. Then they went out in free agency and signed running back Steven Jackson away from St Louis. He turned 30 in July, and it is a well-established fact that players at his position tend to deteriorate once they enter their fourth decade. Jackson, furthermore, is a physical back who has taken more hits than most. Nevertheless, he was extremely effective for the Rams in the latter part of last season – a result of head coach Jeff Fisher's smart decision to limit his touches earlier in the year. If the Falcons can manage Jackson's time on the field with similar effectiveness, he could be a difference-maker come playoff time.

And barring any injury to quarterback Matt Ryan, this team should certainly get back to the postseason. The receiving tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White remains one of the best in the league, and on defense Osi Umenyiora could help upgrade the pass rush. A lot is being expected of rookie cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, but defensive co-ordinator Mike Nolan has a good track record of keeping his units competitive.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last season: 7-9

What next for the Muscle Hamster? Tampa Bay's diminutive running back, also known as Doug Martin, had a sensational rookie season, rushing for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns, as well as catching 49 passes for a further 472 yards. If he can repeat those numbers, this team could be bound for the postseason.

Josh Freeman's 4,065 passing yards and 27 touchdowns last season represented new franchise records at his position, but he will hope to improve his accuracy now that he has a full year working with head coach Greg Schiano under his belt. A hideous passing defense, meanwhile, has been upgraded hugely by the addition of cornerback Darrelle Revis.

3) New Orleans Saints

Last season: 7-9

How much difference does a head coach make? The Saints had to do without Sean Payton last season as he served a one-year suspension as punishment for his alleged involvement in the team's bounty scandal. They duly missed out on the playoffs for the first time in four years, losing more games in one season than they had over the previous two combined.

Payton is now back, and his play-calling should galvanise the Saints' offense. That said, this team moved the ball OK even when he was absent. More important in determining New Orleans's fate might be the impact of new defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan, who takes over a unit that gave up a league-worst 440.1 yards per game last year and has had only modest additions.

4) Carolina Panthers

Last season: 7-9

I have the Panthers at last place in this division, yet they could easily finish as high as second. There is certainly plenty of confidence in Carolina after the team finished 2012 with five wins from its last six games. Seven of the Panthers' nine losses were by less than one touchdown.

Cam Newton is a talented quarterback who takes a few too many chances but can succeed if the other pieces are in place. Carolina might also have the best pass rush in the division, with first-round pick Star Lotulelei slotting in at defensive tackle alongside Dwan Edwards and the already prolific pairing of Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy at defensive end. There is some concern, however, that age might start to catch up to the running back rotation of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

NFC West

How will Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson fare in his second season? Photograph: George Holland/ZUMA Press/Corbis

1) Seattle Seahawks

Last season: 11-5

The Seahawks' big offseason play to upgrade their offense, trading away a first-round pick to acquire Percy Harvin from Minnesota, backfired when the receiver injured his hip over the summer. He is expected to miss most of the season, and yet his team can still win this division.

A running game led by the indomitable Marshawn Lynch has been lent depth with the selection of Christine Michael in the second-round of this year's draft, and will continue to be the foundation of this team's offensive success. For all the excitement around quarterback Russell Wilson last year, the Seahawks still ran the ball a lot more often than they threw it.

Their greatest strength will continue to be the defense. Already exceptional at linebacker and in the secondary, the Seahawks have strengthened their supposed weak link, the defensive line, significantly with the capture of Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in free agency. If Wilson continues to progress as expected, they will be Super Bowl contenders.

2) San Francisco 49ers

Last season: 11-4-1

Nothing less than a Super Bowl will satisfy 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh, who steered his team to that stage last year after reaching the AFC Championship game in 2011-12. He has the pieces in place for another run, from a beastly front seven on defense through to an exceptional offensive line that can pave the way for another great year of Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore and the read-option offense.

So why rank them below Seattle? My concerns relate to the state of the team's secondary, which lost safety Dashon Goldson in free agency, as well as the situation at wide receiver, where Michael Crabtree is out injured. But San Francisco are still going to be a very good team; my hunch is just that Seattle will be better.

3) St Louis Rams

Last season: 7-8-1

Nobody won more divisional games in the NFC West last year than St Louis, who went 4-1-1 against San Francisco, Seattle and Arizona. Unfortunately, they also went 3-7 against everybody else. They have lost their starting running back, Steven Jackson, and top wide receiver, Danny Amendola, since then, but still have reasons to believe that they will perform better.

Chief among those is the simple fact that quarterback Sam Bradford will be working under the same offensive co-ordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, for a second consecutive season – making this the first time in his career that he will get to work in the same system for two years running. If the former No1 overall pick can translate that consistency into the sort of improvement that people around the franchise expect, then this team – blessed with an underrated defense that features one of the best lines in the league – could grab a playoff berth.

4) Arizona Cardinals

Last season: 5-11

The Cardinals are another team that did not get enough credit for the quality of its defense last year, mostly because every time they forced a turnover their offense would give the ball straight back. A new coaching staff in Arizona will seek to preserve the good while eliminating some of the bad.

Carson Palmer represents an upgrade at quarterback (he could hardly do worse than Josh Skelton, Ryan Lindley et al) and has the right attributes to air the ball out in Bruce Arians' deep passing offense, as well as one of the best wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald. But Palmer cannot throw passes lying down, and there is concern that the team's glaring weaknesses along the offensive line remain, especially after the team's first-round draft pick, guard Jonathan Cooper, broke his leg in preseason.

Playoff permutations

Division winners: Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks.

NFC Wildcards: San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

NFC Championship game: Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons

Super Bowl XLVIII: Seattle Seahawks over Denver Broncos