User Info: hexacoto hexacoto 3 years ago #1



- SQEX's fiscal year 2018 (FY2018) ends March 31, 2018. In its FY2018 report, D:FFNT was not mentioned in its product announcement lineup. (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page02.html)



- SQEX's expected net sales for Digital Entertainment for FY2018 is a 5-percent drop to 189B JPY. At the same time, expected net sales for Amusement is an 8-percent increase to 46B JPY. Operating income for Amusement is also targeted to increase. (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page05.html)



- Expected Digital Entertainment unit sales for FY2018 is 15.66 million, vs. 34.76 million in FY2017. (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page06.html)



- From the Q&A: "As regards our FY2018/3 earnings forecasts, I would note that the sales plan for the HD Games sub-segment is focused largely on titles for the Japanese market. The plan is a conservative one given the significant changes that have taken place in the Japanese market since the days when home consoles were the primary medium for game play." (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page10.html)



Based on these information, here are my thoughts:



- If D:FFNT were to be released between Jan-March 2018, Day 1 sales would usually give it a boost and sales from a release during that time period would have been factored in to its FY2018 report. This report does not indicate that boost. In fact, an decrease in Digital Entertainment sales is expected.



- It makes more financial sense to release a new product at the start of a FY since a good start makes investors happy about momentum. Also gives SQEX good things to put into its Q1 FY report.



- Releasing D:FFNT in Jan-March 2018 will cannibalise Amusement performance. SQEX has already indicated optimism with its Amusement sector for FY2018.



- Releasing D:FFNT in April/May 2018 will give SQEX the time to consolidate and implement more fixes on the product for launch.



- June is too late to be "early 2018".



Edit: Thinking about it, it is possible they can do a March 2018 launch, and have a note in the full-year FY2018 report saying "Sales for the D:FFNT title will count towards FY2019 instead". That would be unnecessary complications though.



Edit 2: I did consider that FY2017 had a major boost from FF15 sales that pushed it up to 199B JPY from 158.9 JPY in FY 2016 (which ended March 31, 2016). It might be that the expected drop in FY2018 is actually still a growth, considering the lack of major titles launched. I... stick by my analysis of April/May 2018.



Bonus IR report tidbit: How important is D:FFNT to SQEX?

- Pretty important, after top-tier franchises. As a game that falls under its "Games as a service" model, with potential for continuing revenue streams, D:FFNT is up there. Also, SQEX said they are committed to mid-sized titles and new titles in its Q&A. We can expect a decent amount of support for this game for a couple of years, at least.



Any thoughts? Looking through Square Enix's fiscal year report, I am expecting a release date in April/May 2018. I will present the info from the IR report and put my analysis at the end:- SQEX's fiscal year 2018 (FY2018) ends March 31, 2018. In its FY2018 report, D:FFNT was not mentioned in its product announcement lineup. (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page02.html)- SQEX's expected net sales for Digital Entertainment for FY2018 is ato 189B JPY. At the same time, expected net sales for Amusement is anto 46B JPY. Operating income for Amusement is also targeted to increase. (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page05.html)- Expected Digital Entertainment unit sales for FY2018 is 15.66 million, vs. 34.76 million in FY2017. (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page06.html)- From the Q&A: "As regards our FY2018/3 earnings forecasts, I would note that the sales plan for the HD Games sub-segment is focused largely on titles for the Japanese market. The plan is a conservative one given the significant changes that have taken place in the Japanese market since the days when home consoles were the primary medium for game play." (http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/library/docs/170511/page10.html)Based on these information, here are my thoughts:- If D:FFNT were to be released between Jan-March 2018, Day 1 sales would usually give it a boost and sales from a release during that time period would have been factored in to its FY2018 report. This report does not indicate that boost. In fact, an decrease in Digital Entertainment sales is expected.- It makes more financial sense to release a new product at the start of a FY since a good start makes investors happy about momentum. Also gives SQEX good things to put into its Q1 FY report.- Releasing D:FFNT in Jan-March 2018 will cannibalise Amusement performance. SQEX has already indicated optimism with its Amusement sector for FY2018.- Releasing D:FFNT in April/May 2018 will give SQEX the time to consolidate and implement more fixes on the product for launch.- June is too late to be "early 2018".Edit: Thinking about it, it is possible they can do a March 2018 launch, and have a note in the full-year FY2018 report saying "Sales for the D:FFNT title will count towards FY2019 instead". That would be unnecessary complications though.Edit 2: I did consider that FY2017 had a major boost from FF15 sales that pushed it up to 199B JPY from 158.9 JPY in FY 2016 (which ended March 31, 2016). It might be that the expected drop in FY2018 is actually still a growth, considering the lack of major titles launched. I... stick by my analysis of April/May 2018.Bonus IR report tidbit: How important is D:FFNT to SQEX?- Pretty important, after top-tier franchises. As a game that falls under its "Games as a service" model, with potential for continuing revenue streams, D:FFNT is up there. Also, SQEX said they are committed to mid-sized titles and new titles in its Q&A. We can expect a decent amount of support for this game for a couple of years, at least.Any thoughts?