Bye week blues (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports) More

A party doesn't start until something gets broken. A playoff series doesn't start until a road team gets a win.

And a fantasy football season doesn't start until the bye weeks arrive.

I've never understood grousing about bye weeks. I like them. I think they make fantasy football more interesting and they reward the better owners. (Heck, I wish the league would add a second bye week for everyone, tuck them in front of those crummy Thursday night games.)

In my eyes, a fantasy season doesn't really start until owners have to start making tricky decisions, doing things they're conflicted on.

There's good news and bad news with the 2014 bye week slate. On the friendly side, there are five different weeks where just two teams are sitting out, and I don't see a skinny bye that contains a pair of juggernauts. Most of us will navigate those weeks just fine.

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There's one bye week that rests four teams, and that shouldn't be too bad either. The Cowboys, Ravens, Jets and Jaguars sit in Week 11. A little pesky, but we'll get through it.

And then there are three Bye Week Nightmares. Consider what happens in Weeks 4, 9 and 10.

• Week 4 Byes: Broncos, Seahawks, Bengals, Cardinals, Browns, Rams

• Week 9 Byes: Packers, Falcons, Bears, Lions, Bills, Titans

• Week 10 Byes: Colts, Chargers, Redskins, Patriots, Vikings, Texans

Everyone can see the scoring power in that mix.

If you're facing a bunch of sitdowns for Week 4, it might not be a big deal if you're 2-1 or 3-0. You're probably going to make the playoffs anyway. If you're 1-2 or 0-3, you might have to roll up the sleeves and get to work. Consider some of the data from 2013 Yahoo leagues, compiled in this fascinating blog from Automated Insights. Assume a 12-team league where six teams make the playoffs (you can search on different specs if you like):

• If you started 3-0 last year, you made the playoffs 84.8 percent of the time

• If you started 2-1, you made the playoffs 63.8 percent of the time

• The 1-2 teams made the playoffs 36.1 percent of the time

• The 0-3 teams made the playoffs 15.5 percent of the time

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Let's focus on the struggling side of that data for a second. If you started 1-2 last year, your next result has about 26 percent of leverage attached. A 2-2 team basically was a coin flip to get into the playoffs last year, while a 1-3 team ultimately qualified around 24 percent of the time.

The 0-3 club faces a leverage week of about 16 percent. You'll be at 24 percent to dance after a Week 4 win, and around eight percent if you lose.

I don't think the specific takeaways are difficult here, but I'll spell them out for you.

If you're off to a poor start, you need to shift into win-now mode. Don't be reckless about it - don't trade resting stars for 60 cents on the dollar - but now is the perfect time to start shopping your biggest Week 4 sitters. You're in week-to-week gear now. You might have to consider moving your big-name Broncos, your snappy Seahawks, your bust-out Bengals.

Beastie Boy (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun) More

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