The best way to understand what the Colts have at wide receiver is to forget X, Y, and Z. Even to forget split end, flanker and slot guy. In fact, forget football terminology altogether, and think of baseball. Consider the Colts wide receivers to be just like a starting rotation on a major-league team.

The undisputed ace is Reggie Wayne. He can do it all, and he can tell you about his many 20-win seasons and what it’s like to play in, and win, the World Series. And he can probably write out his guest list for his Hall of Fame induction. But, you also have to think of that undisputed ace as coming off Tommy John surgery and getting a bit long in tooth.

In fact, I looked at the 14th seasons of the Top 10 receivers in NFL history (Wayne’s No. 11), and except for Jerry Rice (who bounced back from injury with a great season), Tony Gonzalez (who just chugged along as usual) and Marvin Harrison (who played just 13 seasons), all of them had their last elite season or were playing on fumes.

That doesn’t mean Wayne’s out of gas, just that the little red light is on.

Second in the rotation is free-agent signee Hakeem Nicks. Now this guy is just packed full of talent. In fact, back in 2009, ColtPlay advised the Colts to take him in the first round, and that then-Colts president Bill Polian really considered it (although those two facts are hardly related). Nick is quite the specimen, just how you’d design a wide receiver, and he did have two great seasons with the Giants. The problem is that he played for the Giants for five seasons.

There are two schools of thought as to why Nicks has not been as productive as his abilities would allow. The first, espoused by mainstream media, is that a series of small nicks and dents slowed him down. The other, pushed by the New York tabloid press (which I admit to having been a member of), is that he’s just not tough enough to be an elite NFL wide receiver.

It remains to be seen which Nicks will show up for the Colts this year. Will he be great, adequate or a bust? ColtPlay’s educated opinion is that Nicks will be a decent complementary receiver to Wayne, but will never show that he’s ready to replace him.

At any rate, Nicks is signed for just one year. If he’s great, he could just as well be gone.

In our baseball scenario, Nicks is a guy with all the stuff, but not enough mental and emotional fortitude to get himself out of jams.

The third man in the rotation is T.Y. Hilton. Don’t get me wrong, Hilton is as talented as any wideout I’ve seen in years, but he’s just not big enough to take the pounding that an NFL No. 1 or No. 2 takes each week. While Hilton has only missed one game in his two NFL seasons, he has been nicked up and slowed down for many more and he was not very durable in college when he was playing mostly against guys who work for Target now. Consider Hilton the wily guy with the killer changeup who needs to observe his pitch count lest he break down.

The fourth spot is taken by young Da’Rick Rogers. We all know his story: He was a big-time recruit at Tennessee who looked like he was headed to a sure first-round selection when three positive weed tests derailed his career and sent him to Tennessee Tech. He went undrafted, wound up with the Colts and saw some playing time after Wayne went down, Darius Heyward-Bey proved ineffective (as ColtPlay predicted) and defenses started keying on Hilton. He responded with a promising, but not spectacular, effort. Certainly he did not show enough to make the Colts think twice about signing Nicks.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. To be perfectly honest, ColtPlay does not think weed usage, though illegal in most states, is a huge deal for a college player. Marijuana use is so prevalent among college-age kids that I’m surprised by every player who doesn’t test positive at least once. But there are provisos. If he sells the stuff (an instant deal breaker), he’s been caught doing it while driving or he does it after he’s been disciplined for it, then I worry. So far, as far as we know, Rogers is clean.

Be that as it might, he still hasn’t proven anything other than that he’s talented and just disciplined enough to play in the NFL. So, to continue the baseball analogy, we have to consider our fourth starter to be the undisciplined, inexperienced fireballer who could someday prove to be something more.

Now, if I were writing a book here, I’d segue into LaVon Brazill, another prospect with major weed issues, but I’m not. We’re looking at the Colts receivers in order of precedence, and No. 5 belongs to Griff “Jazz Hands” Whalen. Forget the frequent comparisons to Wes Welker just because he’s an amiable white slot receiver. Whalen has nowhere near the supernatural athletic ability of Welker — I swear that man is made of jelly — but is instead a solid receiver with good hands, concentration, awareness and elusiveness. He’ll get open, catch the ball and make some people miss.

But what Whalen did last year that really opened some eyes was shine as a punt returner. While the position has been a void basically since the days of Clarence Verdin, Whalen brought reliability and breakout potential to punt returns, and for that alone he deserves a roster spot.

Think of him as the No. 5 starter who is an expert junkballer. And his abilities coming out of the bullpen make him doubly valuable.

Then there’s Brazill. A genuine deep threat, he needs to improve in the arts of getting open and catching the ball before he can be taken too seriously. Allowing Whalen to steal his thunder on punt returns did more to hurt his case for a roster spot than anything that came out of a bong ever did.

Deion Branch is also under contract, but he hasn’t caught an NFL pass since 2011, so I think his presence on the roster is just a formality.

And finally, we have Josh Lenz. The kid can fly. He’s like an Olympic-class sprinter, and plays football like one. Time will tell if he can contribute as an NFL wideout or returner, but for now we have to think of him as a kid who can throw the ball 100 mph, but not in any guaranteed direction.

So my rather belabored point is that, while the Colts have plenty of depth at potential at the position, they need a star to replace Wayne when the time comes. Without a first rounder, I don’t see that happening, even though this year’s draft is crazy deep at receiver.

Instead, I see them sticking with what they have. And when the 2015 draft rolls around, when Wayne is another year older and Nicks (successful or not) is an unrestricted free agent, I can see the Colts desperately hoping Baylor’s Antwan Goodley will still be available when they pick.