Why bring this up now, in the middle of a season in which Strasburg and the Nats are both trying to steady themselves? Because it’s not hypothetical. At all.

Strasburg’s contract with the Nationals is for seven years and $175 million. It runs through 2023. But it has two opt-outs — one after this season, and one after next — that a player could exercise to re-enter free agency. When Strasburg signed that extension in 2016, any eyebrows that were raised in the sport surrounded Washington’s commitment to a pitcher who just twice has made 30 starts and topped 180 innings, not the player’s ability to put himself back on the market.

AD

AD

Now, though, it’s not crazy to think Strasburg could outperform the contract. Would opting out and re-entering the market be even a remote possibility?

“That’s for after the season,” Strasburg said last week.

Fair enough. But here’s what matters most, and it’s not the years and dollars (which we’ll get to). It’s the Nationals and their potential.

“For me, it’s wanting to have opportunities to play for a championship,” Strasburg said in a brief interview on the subject. “I think [the Nationals] have shown a willingness, so far, to not necessarily go into a rebuild. The clock’s ticking for me career-wise, and I want to have every opportunity to get there and hopefully win one.”

AD

There’s actually a lot to take in here, not least of which is Strasburg’s self-awareness that the “clock’s ticking for me career-wise,” which could make any D.C. baseball fan feel old. Maybe more important: The words “so far” in the above assessment put a sharp point on things.

AD

With the Nats still hoping to save this season, it’s easy to say from the outside, should July bring regression rather than progress, that the club should sell off parts. But what would a sale mean for the club’s ability to compete in 2020? And what impact would those roster decisions have on Strasburg’s evaluation of whether Washington was where he wants to play next year — and beyond?

Not to make everything concerning the Nationals about whether they re-sign third baseman Anthony Rendon, but so much about the Nationals has to do with whether they re-sign third baseman Anthony Rendon. This makes sense in all the ways we have considered in previous months and weeks: How would they replace him if he left as a free agent after this season? How could they allow Bryce Harper and Rendon to walk in consecutive years? Does ownership’s practice of structuring contract offers with significant deferrals too often inhibit its ability to sign players it genuinely wants? etc. They’re weighty questions, and they’re tied not just to who will play third, but what is realistic, championship-wise, for the franchise in the near-term.

What I hadn’t considered before hearing Strasburg evaluate his own situation: Re-signing Rendon would represent the Nationals’ continued commitment to fielding a contending team every single year. If they can’t do that, might it impact Strasburg’s decision about whether to opt out? He didn’t say it, but those dots aren’t difficult to connect. At the very least, a contract extension to Rendon — not unlike the deal Strasburg signed before reaching free agency — would be a check in the box of “wanting to have opportunities to play for a championship.”

AD

AD

As with any contract situation, the years and dollars can’t be ignored, regardless of what the player considers the primary motivation for a decision. What, then, would be the risk for Strasburg? Significant, for sure.

Strasburg is due $25 million in 2020 (of which $10 million is deferred), $15 million in both 2021 and 2022, and $45 million for 2023 (of which $30 million is deferred).

Last offseason, only one pitcher, Corbin, outdid that deal. In fact, just two other starting pitchers were granted contracts of more than two years: Nathan Eovaldi with Boston (four years, $68 million) and Lance Lynn with Texas (three years, $30 million). Strasburg is more accomplished than any of them, but is there an appetite to pay a 31-year-old nine figures? In the past three offseasons, the only pitchers who have signed free agent deals more lavish than what Strasburg has left on his contract are Corbin and Yu Darvish, who got six years and $126 million from the Cubs.

Strasburg has a 3.79 ERA and is allowing 1.078 walks and hits per inning pitched through 16 starts — perhaps the exact midpoint of his season, should he remain healthy. How he pitches for the next 16 starts could impact his decision, too. So could an evaluation of the market for starting pitchers, which could include Houston’s Gerrit Cole, San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner and Boston’s Rick Porcello.

AD

AD

But Strasburg also will have an understanding of two other elements: Who he is over the course of his career, which is the pitcher with the eighth-most wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) since 2012, and where the Nationals stand, roster-wise, entering 2020.

“It’s about winning,” Strasburg said.