In Wisconsin, Republican Gov. Scott Walker has not led a public survey in three months. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo Elections Dems break open GOP hold on Midwest governorships The Republican Governors Association has cut its ad buys in Minnesota and in Michigan, the site of a stunning Trump win in 2016.

Democrats are surging back in the Midwestern states where President Donald Trump cut deepest into their old coalition in 2016, led by a class of candidates for governor that have Republicans on their heels.

The Republican Governors Association cut the size of its ad buys in Minnesota and then in Michigan, according to Advertising Analytics data reviewed by POLITICO. That’s given Democrats increasing confidence that Gretchen Whitmer, their nominee in a state Hillary Clinton lost in stunning fashion, will capture the governor’s mansion. In Wisconsin, Republican Gov. Scott Walker has not led a public survey in three months, and the most recent gold-standard poll from Marquette University showed him trailing Democrat Tony Evers by 5 points. And in Ohio, Democrat Richard Cordray has overcome early complaints about his campaign to pull even with Republican Mike DeWine in one of the most competitive races in the country.


It’s a sharp turnaround from Trump’s Midwestern triumphs two years ago, when he capped years of state-level Republican dominance in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin by winning their electoral votes and lost Minnesota by just 1 point. The Democratic resurgence is set to give the party a seat at the table in the Midwest on everything from health care and tax policy to redistricting, after nearly a decade on the outside looking in.

Democrats came out of 2016 unsure exactly "what happened in the Midwest," said Elisabeth Pearson, the executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, speaking at a press conference this week. But those states are "very much in play" now, Pearson continued.

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Republicans benefited from the Midwest’s swings against the president during Barack Obama’s administration, racking up decisive midterm wins in 2010 and 2014. But the region’s political volatility has persisted during the Trump era.

"The Midwest has no problem going from electing Obama in 2008 to a Republican governors sweep in 2010 back to Obama in 2012, and so on,” said Jim Hobart, a Republican pollster.

Prominent Democrats have been working overtime to try to swing these Midwestern races back into the Democratic column. Obama recently campaigned for Cordray and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and is traveling to boost Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania on Friday. Potential 2020 presidential contenders have made regular appearances as well, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock.

Meanwhile, Republicans have not been able to make headway in the states where Democrats retained a foothold during the Obama years. Pennsylvania's Wolf, a Democrat, has led his Republican opponent by double digits in the last eight polls. Rep. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) has maintained comfortable leads over GOP nominee Jeff Johnson in the race to succeed Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton. And while Illinois Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner was able to ride discontent with Democrat Pat Quinn to victory in 2014, Rauner has become unpopular after four years of battle with Democratic legislators and has been an underdog to J.B. Pritzker for the entire campaign.

In Minnesota, the RGA canceled ad spending slated for Minneapolis TV stations from late September through early October. (It still has several weeks of ads reserved for later next month.) In Michigan, the GOP governors committee cut $1.2 million out of its initial advertising plan as it moved money around the state earlier this month, according to Advertising Analytics.

Matt Borges, the former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, said the GOP had largely not been able to find candidates who could overcome the national political environment.

“So much of that is based on the uniqueness of races, and I think we just drew a bad hand in governors races outside of Ohio this year" in the Midwest, Borges said. "In Ohio we ended up with a candidate who everyone knows, who’s built a brand in the state over the course of the last several decades. ... Trump’s still reasonably popular here. So we kind of have some insulation here. Structurally, Ohio’s different from some of these other states. That’s very much to our advantage in a year like this."

Indeed, DeWine is running neck and neck with Cordray, while in Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds — the first woman to serve as governor of the state and a political protege of popular former Gov. Terry Branstad, now the ambassador to China — has maintained single-digit leads over Democrat Fred Hubbell in recent private polling, according to a veteran Republican operative with knowledge of the findings.

But Republicans in neither of those campaigns are taking their candidate's strength for granted, given the enthusiasm among Democrats to turn out and vote this year. Former Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis said that will be the deciding factor in many states.

“I think the Democrats have done a great job of demonizing Trump and created a unique situation where the left is very motivated, very intense. And if you take a look at the turnout models in virtually every special election we’ve had, Democrats have done a better job because their people tend to be more excited and fired up,” Anuzis said.

