In 2010, Sports Illustrated‘s John Lopez came up with a simple prediction formula for NFL quarterback prospects: Rule of 26-27-60. Lopez argued that a top QB prospect should have scored at least 26 of 50 on the Wonderlic test, started a minimum of 27 college games, and passed accurately with no worse than a 60 percent completion rate. The Wonderlic test is taken by nearly all top NFL prospects to assess learning and problem-solving aptitudes.

According to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, only Jared Goff (Cal) and Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) have Wonderlic scores at least 26 among top prospects. According to the rule, Paxton Lynch (Memphis) has a significantly low Wonderlic score of 18. McGinn reports that a scout said of Lynch, “You might hit the home run with [him] but because of the mental [test score] you might strike out.”

Since 2014 top picks meeting the rule minimums include Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans), Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Brett Hundley (Green Bay Packers), Blake Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars), and Jimmy Garoppolo (New England Patriots). Garoppolo is scheduled to start during Tom Brady’s four-game suspension at the beginning of the season.

Overall the rule has been more successful in predicting busts than successes with a major notable exception of Charlotte Panther Cam Newton (see 2011 table) . Both former Broncos quarterbacks Brock Osweiler (2012) and Tim Tebow (2010) failed the rule. Colin Kaepernick (2011) has been frequently mentioned as a possible Broncos quarterback acquisition. But he barely missed passing the rule due to a 58 percent completion rate. In fact Kaepernick has been criticized for throwing inaccuracy as an NFL starter.

2016 Quarterback Prospects

According to ESPN, the standardized completion percentage provides a truer measurement predicted throwing accuracy due to adjustments for distance, drops, and throwaways. If 70 percent standard completion percentage is used an adjusted rate minimum, Connor Cook (Michigan State) and Chrisian Hackenberg (Penn State) still show insufficient throwing accuracy.

Related Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook will workout for the Broncos

Related MMQB mock draft has Broncos selecting Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg

2016 with Adjusted Completion Rate

Here selected NFL quarterback prospects for 2010-2015.

2015 Quarterback Prospects

2014 Quarterback Prospects

2013 Quarterback Prospects

2012 Quarterback Prospects

2011 Quarterback Prospects

2010 Quarterback Prospects