Politics

Poll: Trump Leads in Idaho Ahead of Tuesday's Primary

Donald Trump will likely win Tuesday’s Idaho Republican presidential vote, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll finds.

The polls are open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday. Only registered Republicans can vote in the closed contest, but political independents can register as Republicans at the polls and vote.

IPW’s pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, finds in a survey completed before last week’s Super Tuesday presidential results, that Trump has 30 percent support among Republicans, and 24 percent of political independents favor Trump.

Among all Idahoans, Trump is favored by 23 percent of adults. However, that sample includes Democrats and members of other parties who can’t vote Tuesday.

Here’s what Jones finds in the new survey, conducted Feb. 17-26:

Among Republicans:

30 percent favor Trump.

19 percent like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

16 percent would vote for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

5 percent prefer Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

9 percent would vote for someone else if they could.

And 11 percent don’t know.

Retired doctor Ben Carson dropped out of the race after the poll was conducted, he got 11 percent of the GOP vote.

Idaho Democrats hold presidential caucuses on March 22. Anyone who didn’t vote in the GOP primary can vote in them.

Jones finds that among all Idahoans, Hillary Clinton has 16 percent support; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has 40 percent support, 22 percent mentioned someone else, and 22 percent didn’t know.

The key result, of course, is among Idaho Democrats.

A month ago Clinton held a 12-percentage point lead among Democrats.

But that has disappeared, found Jones.

Now, Sanders leads Clinton among Democrats, 47-45 percent.

Political independents, who can vote March 22, really favor Sanders, 42-19 percent, over Clinton – who despite her Idaho showing appears well on her way to winning the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.

Idaho Politics Weekly’s last presidential poll results are found in this story.

Here is an explanation of Idaho’s primary voting procedures.

Idaho is a proportional delegate state, meaning the winner and runner-ups take the percentage of delegates compared to the percent of the vote they got.

However, for a GOP candidate to get any Idaho delegates, he must get at least 20 percent of the vote.

For Democrats, he or she must get 15 percent of the ballot.

Clinton and Sanders, in a two-person race, will both get 15 percent of the vote and so qualify for a portion of delegates.

However, Jones’ latest poll shows that some of the GOP candidates may NOT get 20 percent of the vote, and so would get no delegates from Idaho.

In the GOP-establishment’s fight to deny Trump the Republican Party’s presidential nomination that is critical.

For it is not so much how many delegates Trump wins in the contests across the nation, but how many he DOESN’T win – which could throw the Cleveland GOP national convention in July into a very interesting fight.

Trump is already over 20 percent support among Idaho Republicans, Jones finds, tallying 30 percent.

Cruz has 19 percent support, so only has to pick up a few more voters.

But Rubio has only 16 percent support, so must bring some momentum into Idaho.

Kasich, with only 5 percent support, could end up not getting any delegates out of Idaho on Tuesday.

Finally, Jones asked Idahoans who they think will ultimately win the GOP and Democratic party nominations; and who will win the presidency next November:

44 percent of all Idahoans believe Trump will be the GOP nominee.

Cruz comes in second with 17 percent.

46 percent of Republican Idahoans think Trump will win their party’s nomination.

On the Democratic side:

47 percent of all Idahoans believe Clinton will win the Democratic nomination.

32 percent say Sanders.

A whopping 61 percent of Idaho Democrats think Clinton will win their party’s nomination.

Who will win in November is less certain, say Idahoans:

23 percent say Trump will win.

20 percent say Clinton.

10 percent say Sanders.

8 percent believe Cruz will be the next president.

And 5 percent say Rubio.

27 percent – more than a fourth – of Idahoans don’t even have a guess.

Finally, the poll was finished before Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, lambasted Trump in the media, calling him a fraud and con man, among other things.

Romney is a Mormon and generally held in high regard by Idaho Mormons.

Jones finds that among Idaho LDS Church members, Trump does suffer:

24 percent of Idaho Mormons favor Cruz.

Trump comes in second, with 18 percent support among the LDS faithful.

Jones polled 601 adults from Feb. 17-26; the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent.