Most opinion polls show overwhelming support for a public vote on same-sex marriage. Credit:Chris Hopkins But the genie is out of the bottle on a plebiscite, with most opinion polls showing overwhelming support for a public vote. Even with a Galaxy poll this week showing public support for the plebiscite falls when voters are informed of its cost and parliamentary challenges the political fundamentals remain: the PM and government are inextricably tied to holding a public vote. The return of the Turnbull government has now put the matter beyond doubt. The Coalition had a clear policy of a plebiscite and now has a public mandate to advance it. The idea that Labor and the Greens, with the support of the crossbenchers, could block the plebiscite in the Senate and thereby force Turnbull to accept a parliamentary vote that then succeeds is fanciful.

Victory is within reach for believers in marriage equality. Credit:Bradley Kanaris First, the Coalition party room will go to war with itself and everyone else and create a parliamentary stalemate. Second, Turnbull may have once been a supporter of a parliamentary vote but the political reality is that he is now inextricably tied to a public vote. Finally, there were three bills before the last Parliament on marriage equality all of which have failed. A parliamentary vote brought forward in the above circumstances would almost certainly fail again. So here is a radical idea for supporters of progress. This is a democracy, so let's give the people what they want: a public vote in which they emphatically endorse marriage equality. The sooner the "yes" camp accepts this path the better will be the chances of shaping the terms of the plebiscite and running the strong public campaign needed to win it. This is where Ireland's experience provides much to take heart. In 2015, Ireland became the first country in the world to legalise same-sex marriage through a public vote.

That victory was a joyous, nationally unifying and transformative moment. The referendum delivered a record turnout of voters and a landslide 62 to 38 per cent majority for change. Australia could use a moment like that. Of course there are risks with the plebiscite. Conservative politicians will make claims about "polyamory" and the like. Sneaky politicians may try to frame the question so as to divide supporters of the yes vote. Right-wing fanatics will try and stir up homophobic demons that lurk in some quarters of society. But all of these risks will be better managed if supporters of marriage equality accept the inevitability of the public vote and engage in the process. Strong advocacy is needed now to ensure there is a straightforward question on the ballot. A plebiscite vote is not binding on the Parliament so there needs to be steps taken now for an agreement among enough parliamentarians that they will follow the public vote or abstain if their conscience prevents them from casting a vote.

The Irish vote was distinguished by the commitment by the yes and no camps to a peaceful and civil debate. Let that process begin now. The genius of the "yes" campaign in Ireland was to make the vote about people, not laws, philosophy or process. The campaign to get young people to "Ring your Granny" was symbolic of a campaign that was focused on conversations around the dinner table not national debates in Parliament and on television. This will be the key to success in Australia. And this is where the yes campaign risks getting it so wrong. To rally against a public vote runs counter to the ethos that is needed to win the public campaign. It actually risks making people suspicious of the yes campaign. Loading Victory is within reach for believers in marriage equality. But it requires the leaders of the campaign to accept that politics is the art of the possible, and now it is time to focus on winning a national plebiscite.

Nicholas Reece is a principal fellow at the University of Melbourne and was a senior adviser to prime minister Julia Gillard.