Why next year may finally be the one for Android

Android developers have been threatening to deliver a killer 3rd party app before iOS for years. 2014 might be the year they finally pull it off.

Android supporters have long believed that their platform of choice is just about to turn the corner and overtake iOS in being the platform to develop for. Yet year-after-year, iOS gets a dominant share of attention and for a variety of reasons the Android First Myth lives on.

Before looking at the new signs in Android’s favor, a quick recap of past hopefulness:

“Where are the Android Killer Apps? Simplest explanation: Android numbers didn’t get interesting to devs till last summer. Re-check in a year.”

-Tim Bray, November 2010 “Ever notice Android fans are like Cubs fans? Wait ’til next year.”

-Chris Cieslak, March 2011 “While Android has been outpacing iOS on the consumer side in terms of growth and market share, developers have still clung to iOS for building new apps. However, new research shows that 2012 might be the year that changes.”

-Jolie O’Dell in Venturebeat, January 2012 “For now, iOS users tend to monetize much better than Android users…the switch to Android first hasn’t happened yet, but at least based on conversations I’ve had with entrepreneurs, it seems likely to happen in the next year or two.”

-Chris Dixon, June 2013 “The Long-Awaited Switch to Android-First App Development Hasn’t Happened Yet”

-Dan Frommer, June 2014

To judge if “the corner’s been turned”, we can use John Gruber’s Android First test — looking for an exclusive, third-party app that turns the tables on iPhone users and makes them full of envy that the next killer-app is “coming soon” for iOS. When the next Instagram, Snapchat, or Vine-like sensation happens on Android first, we’ll know they’ve finally made it.

So, what’s changed to make 2014 different?

Android’s market share has finally tipped: “Google Play now drives 25% more downloads than iOS app store” via Sachin Rekhi…“If you have 5-6x the users and a quarter of the engagement, you’re still a more attractive market.” via Benedict Evans

Google apps and services — and Android overall — keep getting better. You could make a strong case that many of Google’s iOS apps are better than Apple’s (see: Maps, Gmail, Chrome, etc…)

Google Analytics recent integration with Google Play Store tightens up the marketing funnel for app makers A LOT.

Apple’s in a period of transition, and addressing non-core issues: “the problem with Game Center is not the green felt, it’s the *service*. Everything today was a distraction from what actually needs to change.” via Francisco Tolmasky

These and other signs hint that Android is making progress and close to overtaking iOS. Of the items on this checklist, only one remains:

Overtake iOS in US marketshare — Done.

(Although this might not last. See BenedictEvans: Apple will overtake Android’s marketshare) Overtake iOS in global marketshare — Done. Offer great Google apps that are optimized/only available for Android. Done. Offer great 3rd-party apps that are only possible on Android.

Done and Done. Launch the next great app sensation that sweeps the web, and promises an iOS version “soon”. Not Yet Done. (My guess, it’ll be some type of messaging app that does it. Something like Emu. Update: they’ve since switched from Android first to iOS only ;)

What do you think? Am I missing any steps or other roadblocks (beyond fragmentation and an ARPU on Android that is roughly a quarter of iOS) that will continue to hold Android back?

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