Update: Due to excellent questions, I’ve updated this portion (see population momentum below) and added more on what experts say in What People are Saying—Population reduction has to happen first, part 2.

This is the fourth and final part of the What People are Saying portion of the series on the culture wars, which began with Climate change is a concern: yes or no?

Overheard in public discussions:

• The best solution of all is for us to limit population. If we don’t limit population, there is no other solution. Frequent suggestion: make birth control available to those who want it.

• The richest 20% are responsible for 80% of consumption (see Over-consumption of resources by a small developed population —also a major problem) and the poorest 1/5 consume very little, so target those condoms!

• If there is not enough for everyone, we’re going to have to practice mandatory birth control, but only after other options. (See Susan Power Bratton for her Bible-based support of coercive family planning under some circumstances, ‘Christian responses to coercion in population regulation’ in Consumption, population, and sustainability: perspectives from science and religion Audrey R. Chapman, 1999 Island Press.) She argues that there is a moral imperative to keep the population low enough that we can feed and care for everyone.)

• Reduce immigration to US and reduce fertility in the US and elsewhere (so that there will be less pressure to come to the US). See policies of Negative Population Growth.

What I’ve read:

Population reduction is important, but unlikely, and discussions can be politically uncomfortable, particularly when those pushing the point the loudest are the richest of the richest.

A challenge: the birth rate can be below 2, but the population can continue to grow even so; in these countries, there are relatively few older people dying compared to the number of births. China’s population continues to grow, although the fertility rate is 1.75.





China’s population will continue to increase

This is called population momentum, as the large number of younger people ages.

This will happen in the US as well, but the results will be less dramatic. In Japan, the number of older people is also expected to increase relative to the population, but this is in part because the number of young people declines:



Japan 2007



and Japan 2050 (Don’t be confused, the scales are different!)

I have seen few solutions proposed other than voluntary birth control and education, both general education to increase women’s options, and education on family planning. Here is one: the desire of fishermen to earn a decent wage motivated population control (see Fishing for a Solution to the Population Problem). Have you seen others?

OK, what have you been hearing, and is it rational discussion, or the culture wars?

What People are Saying

part 1—Climate change is a concern: yes or no?

part 2—Cap and trade for greenhouse gas: yes or no?

part 3—Choosing technologies/ changing behavior

second part—What People are Saying—Population reduction has to happen first, part 2