Article content continued

But here’s some bad news for Scheer and the Conservatives: that lead is slipping away, bit by bit, as the party fails to achieve the momentum it needs to grow its base and launch it into a position to form government. In the meantime, the Liberals are not only doggedly crawling closer to a tie with the CPC, they’re putting more daylight between themselves and the NDP and Greens, who are both seeing their support soften.

More troubling for the Conservatives: at this stage in the pre-campaign period, there don’t appear to be as many voters still up for grabs who skew to the right of the political spectrum. Who are the uncommitted? New ARI polling shows more of them are women than men. More are under the age of 35, and more lean left in their politics. The issues that are most important to them include climate change and health care access – topics Scheer has had little to say about.

Which isn’t to say the Liberals don’t have serious liabilities of their own, especially the one that starts with “SNC” and ends with “Lavalin.” It’s true Mario Dion’s mid-August ruling that the PM broke ethics rules over his handling of the scandal had little impact. Most who were angry about it defected in the spring. But uncommitted voters also put transparency and honesty high up on the list of issues they care the most about. And the opposition has no doubt banked ready-to-air ads reminding people what they may have missed during summer vacation.

The Liberals and Conservatives will share some strategic plays, however. At a time when affordability is a top priority for many uncommitted voters, both will make the case that they are best equipped to reduce cost of living stress for those who find themselves increasingly strapped for cash and quality of life, even in a robust economic environment.