With only six matches remaining (and a long two week wait until the 9 September match in New York) on the Timbers schedule, I figured this is a good time to more precisely decide what it will take to make the playoffs but also in what slot. Come along with me on this haphazard FanPost. First, the resources:

Above the Red Line

Simply, will the Timbers be in the playoffs? And at what amount of points do they need to be in the playoffs?

To the first answer, the odds are in the Timbers' favor right now, and the number of points that tips between more likely than not is 46.

538 - 89% SCS - 90.8% BS - Magic # = 17 BS - Actual Despair # = 1.45 (Basically need to have this ppg to remain above 6th place)

Interestingly, the probability went down because San Jose won over the weekend, but it also dropped a few points for Houston, Vancouver, and Dallas on that win in LA alone.

And why 46 points? Look at the SportsClubStats page for the Timbers. It breaks down the Monte Carlo simulations by points. There is a definite change between a probability at 39%/43% at 45 points (only 4 points more in six matches) versus 61%/67% at 46 points (5 points in six matches, or 1-2-3 or 0-5-1). Two wins, 2-0-4 at a minimum for 47 points, is a playoff probability of 80%. Every draw after that jumps nearly 10 percentage points. For the record 55 points gets the Timbers in with mathematical certainty right now.

Match to Match

Looking at each match individually gives us another insight into the road to the playoffs. Just know that the Timbers' current ppg of 1.46 is almost exactly the average strength of the opposition left (1.45 ppg). Game to game shows different possibilities.

@ NYC

This game has a loss written all over it. The Pigeons are 2.31 ppg at home (9-3-1). The last home loss was in April. 538 gives them a strong 54% chance of winning.

@ RSL

RSL have gotten their pieces back and are looking really dangerous. I don't like the outlook here. Hopefully the Timbers' pieces are all back to fight this rising beast. As for playoff contention, unless two of the following tank (Portland, Houston, Vancouver, San Jose, Dallas), RSL have no chance to get in the playoffs. They'll try, and may succeed only because of their easy schedule. Opposition ppg is lowest in the league at the moment at 1.11.

ORL

Given Orlando's troubles/form (2 pts in 7 matches in August), they may well be so far behind once they get to Portland that this game is for pride, even though they may not be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. 538 has Portland likely winning at 60%.

@ SJE

I thought for sure that this would be a difficult one to win, but San Jose is no different from Portland at home (2.00 v 2.00). 538 surprisingly has the win probability at 38% and 37% respectively. This is a playoff game primer.

DCU

All but assured this game is 3 points. Don't bother looking at their 3-0-0 form on three goals. That's unsustainable and they're so deep in the hole playoffs are not going to be possible by the time they play Portland. I expect them to be mathematically eliminated from contention by this week. 538 gives Portland a 60% likelihood of a win, like Orlando.

VAN

If Vancouver draws Seattle. The Cup is OURS! This game will only be for playoff positioning. Vital 3 points! 538 says 53% to Portland, 23% to Vancouver.

Playoff positioning

It sure looks like the Timbers are going to bag 3 wins in their 3 home games. That'll be enough for 50 points and easily get the Timbers above the line. According to SportsClubStats, a straight 3-0-3 will likely land the Timbers most likely in 4th or 5th (39%; 31%). If the Timbers manage a draw or two, 3-1-2 or 3-2-1, then at 51 or 52 points the Timbers will slot in at 4th (39%) or 3rd (39%) respectively.

If they only gain 2 wins in the last six (2-0-4), it's still playoff positioning, with 6th place at 45% and 20% below the red line.

What to aim for?

In the playoffs only? RSL to win, everyone else to lose, win at least two games (or tie all six I guess).

Best (and feasible) playoff position? Win 3 games, especially against San Jose and Vancouver, and earn a draw or two somewhere. Squeak in at 2nd, but likely earn 4th on the two wins.

Conclusion

No more weekday matches, all weekend. Crowded schedule for a few WC opponents like Dallas and Kansas City. Two EC opponents have to come a long distance to Portland. Timbers are in a comfortable position. Not the easiest nor the hardest path to the playoffs. And a fighting chance to host the play-in match.