Hospitalizations tell us everything

We’re inundated with daily tallys of the number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19. Like every state who has increased the number of tests they have given, Oregon has seen their number of positive cases rise, too, and it’s tracked every day on the Oregon Health Authority’s website. Today Oregon has 999 positive cases. And it means absolutely nothing, because there’s no standardization for how, when, or why people are tested, and if you only test people with symptoms, more likely test positive. Does Oregon’s 999 positive tests mean that 999 people in the state have COVID-19? 9,000 people? Or 900,000 people? That’s the problem, no one has any idea, which means the tests are useless for determining the most important question we all want to know:

where we are in the cycle of the disease?

Hospitalizations on the other hand, are the best data we have. We know for certain when someone goes to the hospital — and stays — for COVID-19. They are the “tip of the iceberg” of COVID-19 carriers (since we know 50% of COVID-19 carries are asymptomatic, we won’t find them until we test everyone) and if their numbers are exploding, then you know the virus is exploding in the state, too. Also, if the lockdown works, hospitalizations DECREASING should be your first sign that the lockdown is working…unless of course hospitalizations were decreasing before the lockdown could have had an impact (oh rats I just gave away my punchline, but I hope you will read on to see the data for yourself…)

Oregon’s Hospitalization Shows: COVID-19 was on its way out before the lockdown happened

Every day, the Oregon Health Authority releases new data about COVID-19. Here’s today’s released this morning at 0900. I will pull out two of the most important charts, and try to explain. Here’s the first one: