Mitt Romney is not winning Michigan.

That's not how this was supposed to go. This is his home state, the economy is still rotten and President Obama's job approval rating is nothing to write home about.

But the last couple weeks, in particular, have been rough for Mitt in the Mitten State (and

even more seriously in Ohio

, which is a must-win for the GOP nominee's path to victory).

The

Glengariff Group/Detroit News

had Obama up by 6 in Michigan before the Republican National Convention (and before U.S. Rep. Todd Akin came up with his creative "legitimate rape" theory). The latest

Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA poll

shows Obama crushing Romney by 10 points

after the Democratic National Convention

.

Obama has strength with independents in the polls, but more strikingly with women, as

Republicans' desperate attempts

to paint Democrats as the real extremists on abortion and rape continue to fall flat.

Little wonder that Romney, who just

raised $112 million last month

and isn't exactly hurting, still isn't advertising here. His

massive, 15-spot ad campaign

in nine states following the DNC has skipped Michigan.

Karl Rove's SuperPAC, American Crossroads, also yanked its Michigan ads

. Independent groups have

shelled out about $11 million

since the Feb. 28 primary shellacking Obama -- and the polls have only moved in the president's favor.

In business terms, that's called a poor return on investment (ROI).

Little wonder that Obama and his SuperPAC have bypassed Michigan since February, as there are clearly better targets.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Obama ahead by 5.8 percent in Michigan. That includes polls favorable to Romney from Mitchell Research and Foster McCollum White Baydoun -- which have been toted repeatedly by Republicans, but whose

methodology has been questioned by the New York Times' 538 blog

.

Not surprisingly, 538 analyst Nate Silver pegs Obama's chance of winning Michigan at 96 percent as of today.

Of course, Romney supporters will look at the mounting evidence that their candidate is slipping and come to only one conclusion: The liberal media (and the facts) are lyin'.

There's really no other logical conclusion.

And Romney advisers will continue to spin that the race is essentially tied. Take Michigan spokeswoman Kelsey Knight

this weekend

:

"Governor Mitt Romney was born and raised in Michigan, and he will continue to campaign in his home state. Polling continues to show the Romney/Ryan ticket statistically tied. After Obama carried the state by nearly 20 points in 2008, it's clear Mitt Romney has the momentum heading into November."

And adviser Katie Packard Gage

flatly insisted at the Michigan Republican Party convention on Saturday

, "We will not pull out of Michigan."

When you have to reassure people that you're not pulling the plug, that's not exactly a good sign. Kind of hard to get folks jazzed up with the slogan, "We're not abandoning you. Honest!"

Indeed, no one really expects a

2008 John McCain-style implosion

when he very publicly flipped Michigan the bird in October and sent his field staff to Indiana. That led to Obama's unnecessary 16-point victory and undoubtedly led to some of the Democrats' nine-seat pickup in the state House.

Romney has far more advantages than McCain did, starting with the fact that no one thinks '12 is going to be a spectacularly good Democratic year like 2008 was.

For one thing, Romney was smart enough not to hire Chuck and

John Yob

, who only know how to muscle candidates through the fun-house mirror atmosphere of GOP primaries and conventions. (Oh, yes, they advised Rick Snyder, too, when a hamster with an 'R' behind his name could have trounced Angriest Mayor (TM) Virg Bernero in GOP dream year like 2010).

Romney's Michigan roots also have helped him build an impressive fundraising machine, and

he's still outraised Obama here

.

His rally last month with running mate U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.)

drew an enthusiastic crowd of more than 9,000,

something McCain probably couldn't have pulled off, even if

Sarah Palin showed up in her skin-tight Superman shirt.

I doubt we've seen the last of Romney in Michigan, whether on the stump or on the air.

Between his own war chest and the likely billions from independent groups, Romney has money to throw at the Mitten State in the final weeks, if only as a face-saving gesture.

And we're not far from the critical state of Ohio, so it's not exactly inconvenient to schedule another stop or two on the campaign trail.

Besides, no one knows what will happen. There's always the possibility of a game-changing moment in the election, like the Wall Street meltdown in '08, which could turn the race around for Romney. Michigan could once again truly be in play.

But for now, there's a whiff of desperation when Republicans talk about Mitt Romney's commitment to his home state. And actions speak louder than words.

Susan J. Demas is a political analyst for Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS). She can be reached at sjdemas@gmail.com. Follow her on Twitter here.