Senior receiver Devonte Boyd led the Rebels with 746 receiving yards in 2016. (Photo by Eugene Boyd, Associated Press)

Can UNLV beat Ohio State this season?

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Here's our schedule breakdown of the 2017 Ohio State football season, in which we assign each opponent a percentage chance to beat the Buckeyes. We'll continue multiplying those chances until we reach our final number, the chance we think Ohio State has to go 12-0 during the 2017 regular season.



We're on to the week four game when UNLV visits Ohio State.

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UNLV REBELS

vs. Ohio State: Saturday, Sept. 23 at Ohio Stadium. The kickoff time and TV network will be announced at a later date.

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2016 record: 4-8 (3-5 Mountain West West Division). Finished tied for third-place in its division, but posted the program's highest win total since 2013.

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Bowl: None. The Rebels haven't been bowl-eligible since 2013, when they lost to North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. UNLV is 3-1 all-time in bowl games.

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Returning starters: 11 (9 offense, 2 defense).

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Phil Steele preseason rank: UNLV is No. 123 (out of 130 total) in Steele's Power Poll.

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Week before the OSU game: UNLV comes to Columbus off of a bye week after opening at home against Howard, and then playing Idaho on the road. With an FCS opponent in the opener, it's likely the Rebels come to Ohio Stadium with at least one win.

UNLV started its football program in 1968, and this is just the 11th time that the Rebels will play in the Eastern Time Zone. Urban Meyer coached against UNLV twice while he was the head coach at Utah.

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Chances to beat Ohio State: 0.1 percent. Welcome to the worst game on Ohio State's schedule. Here are some interesting numbers to consider while anxiously waiting for the Rebels to come to Ohio Stadium in September (courtesy of Phil Steele):

UNLV has lost 17 straight games against ranked opponents. The Rebels are 0-10 in games played in the Eastern Time Zone, losing by an average of 28 points per game. They've lost seven straight road games against Power Five opponents by an average of 35 points per game.

The 0.1 percent is based mostly on the fact that we'll never give an opponent a 0 percent chance of winning, and Ohio State plays against Army the week before. Playing a physical triple-option team like the Black Knights tends to carry over to the next week.

That doesn't mean we think Ohio State is in danger of losing, obviously, but perhaps a game against UNLV could feel like the last time Ohio State played a Mountain West team. The Buckeyes beat Hawaii 38-0 in 2015, and looked about as lethargic as a team can look while still winning 38-0.

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UNLV has a style of play that could send Ohio Stadium into a lull with a power running attack that will look to keep the ball out of Ohio State's hands. The Rebels were No. 15 in the country last year with 239 rushing yards per game, and the top two rushers from last year are back.

Sophomore back Charles Williams ran for 763 yards (5.3 avg.) last year, while junior Lexington Thomas ran for 642 (5.2). They'll run behind an offensive line that returns four starters, and is ranked No. 3 in the Mountain West by Steele.

A quarterback, UNLV will start 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman Armani Rogers. He's a former three-star prospect from Los Angeles who's bringing some excitement back to the Rebels' QB spot. One article compared Rogers, at least from a potential local star power perspective, to former UNLV quarterback Randall Cunningham.

At the very least, UNLV has some interesting offensive pieces back to a unit that scored 31.6 points per game last year, and should be improved this year. What does that mean for Ohio State? Probably not much, but if the Buckeyes come sleep walking into their final non-conference game, maybe this one drags on a little bit and is closer than expected. UNLV did keep it close in a 28-7 loss at Michigan in 2015.

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UNLV was improved by its standards defensively last year, but still finished No. 80 in total defense (430.1 yards per game), and No. 112 in scoring defense (36.8 points per game). There are only two starters back: Defensive tackles Salanoa-Alo Wily and Mike Hughes.

That could be good news if you think change is good and should improve things defensively, but this is a team that shouldn't put up much of a fight against Ohio State's offense. If it does, well let's just say that's not a great look heading into Big Ten play.

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Frankly, the most interesting thing about Ohio State's game against UNLV is that the Rebels coach, Tony Sanchez, helped build an emerging Buckeye recruiting pipeline. Sanchez is entering his third season at UNLV. Before that he was the head coach at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas.

Sanchez helped turn Gorman, which was always a strong regional and state power, into arguably the best high school football program in the country. Gorman has long been churning out Division I talent, and Ohio State made its move into Vegas last year by signing quarterback Tate Martell and defensive tackle Haskell Garrett out of Gorman.

Sanchez is 7-17 through two seasons at UNLV.

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Previous games in the Ohio State schedule breakdown

• Thursday, Aug. 31: Can Indiana beat Ohio State?

• Saturday, Sept. 9: Can Oklahoma beat Ohio State?

• Saturday, Sept. 16: Can Army beat Ohio State?