There is a very simple diagnosis for the multiple and distressing symptoms currently afflicting the Conservative Party: Brexit.

It is what has stopped our government being able to address any of the towering challenges facing our country in the past four years.

It is why our party suffered such a humiliating defeat in the European elections and lost the Peterborough by-election, a dismal third place finish in a seat we held until two years ago.

And it is why around a dozen Tory MPs are now standing in a contest to pick a new prime minister, our third leader in as many years.

For what it’s worth, I have never thought the Brexit crisis is the fault of Theresa May so much as the scale and contradictory nature of the promises made for it in 2016. We were never going to be able to secure all the benefits of free and frictionless trade without meeting any of the obligations of being in the single market.

Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Show all 12 1 /12 Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Leicester There’s a great suspicion about homelessness in Britain: those desperately in need of social help feel the need to justify exactly why they are in their situation and exactly what they would do with your money Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Loughborough A student dressed as a horse, drunk, headless, betting on the races: a human imitating for fun the animals that race for human entertainment Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Loughborough A rock’n’roll evening where couples lead and are led. Twentieth-century American pop culture reaches far, well into this Loughborough periphery Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Derby Beauty treatment centres appear both surgical and sacrificial from the inside. The woman’s horizontal body stretching across the three windows, sawn into thirds, and the beautician studies with her eyes the eyes she’s beautifying Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Derby Two pairs of hands marked by anti-vandal paint, revealing the crime and the attempt to wipe it away, as if it never happened: the traces of a cover-up Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Boston The search for a lost cat in a pub window, translated into Russian, extending the plea to the town’s Russian reading community in an effort to widen the net and increase the chances of a happy ending Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Boston A warning to keep distance on the back of a white van, to give room, to respect personal space. A crude depiction of the female body occupies the foreground, the British flag and a church tower occupy the distance Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Derby A circus decorated with British and English flags, probably to confer a sense of style and national pride that would attract more people. It’s a timely meeting of the circus and the nation, where performance, danger, trickery, and foolishness all come together to form the spectacle Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Boston Polish football and regional graffiti is everywhere in Boston, if you’re looking for it. This vow of loyalty to Lechia Gdansk I find behind a supermarket carpark, between two trees goalpost-like, framing the inscription Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Leicester A Catholic church on the New Walk, in which a man prays on his own, watched by Christ, solitary among empty chairs, committed, purified, sanctified Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Boston Following the Rover Witham to the Marina and derelict rowing club, this anti-establishment expression catches my eye. It seeks to dehumanise authority, to make the law dirty, and connect power, not the people, to social filth. Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: East Midlands Grantham The back of the Isaac Newton Shopping Centre, by the Bus Station, where a sign advertises a news-seller with images of Polish newspapers, and next, across the black dividing line, a racist scribble with little meaning at all. Richard Morgan/The Independent

But, undoubtedly, there are many people who voted to Leave in 2016 and believed the Conservatives would deliver on the promises made back then. They are deeply unhappy with our party and are now supporting Nigel Farage.

Indeed, one of the most remarkable pieces of polling I have ever seen is the YouGov survey that showed 59 per cent of Conservative Party members voted for the Brexit Party in the European elections, six per cent backed the Liberal Democrats and less than one in five of us voted Tory.

That six per cent is, I suppose, representative of the 5 million Conservatives who voted Remain in the last referendum but have been entirely ignored in the years since and have agreed with Michael Heseltine in choosing to lend their support elsewhere.

The question facing us now is what we should do to prevent further electoral calamity for our party and, potentially, catastrophe for our country.

When I, together with all those tens of thousands of Brexit Party supporters, get to vote on who should be the new prime minister, I fear we may not have the chance to elect a reasonable One Nation Conservative or someone like Sam Gyimah who would support a new referendum if there is no other way to avoid no deal.

But it does not mean we have to abandon hope of a reasonable One Nation outcome. If and when a new prime minister tries to rip up the withdrawal agreement, he or she will discover that the government has entered into an explicit binding commitment not to do any such thing.

In those circumstances, the new PM will be left with three options.

The first is to try to take us out on a default no-deal Brexit, possibly by means of cancelling the parliamentary session. The idea that any prime minister would seek to inflict this, the most destructive form of Brexit possible, on us without the explicit consent of both parliament and the people would outrage anyone with a democratic bone in their body.

The consequences would be hung around the neck of our party for years to come. Moderate Tories will switch to parties that have been more honest about Brexit. Businesses whose warnings were not heeded; employees who lost their livelihoods; and manufacturing workers whose jobs disappear will not vote Conservative again. The young will not forgive their loss of rights and freedoms.

The second option is for the new prime minister to call a general election or allow one to happen through losing a vote of no confidence. I hear from colleagues that this option is privately being talked up by at least one of the leading candidates to succeed May.

But look at Peterborough, a seat that voted 61 per cent for Leave. Labour’s vote fell by 17 per cent on Thursday but it still returned an MP who supports the current Labour leadership’s Marxist agenda because the Conservative vote fell even faster.

If this teaches us anything, it is that an election held while Farage continues to roam the land could yet bail out the failed leadership of Jeremy Corbyn and his colleagues, resulting in a Marxist, potentially antisemitic Labour government.

But there is one final option that many of my Conservative colleagues never thought they would ever have to consider: putting the final decision back to the people.

Independent Minds Events: get involved in the news agenda

There are many good reasons why Conservatives have been reluctant to support another referendum until now. But, whether you want Brexit to go ahead or would now prefer to stay in, a new public vote offers a lasting and democratic solution to this otherwise never-ending crisis.

Giving the public the Final Say could avoid the party being blamed for imposing a no-deal Brexit on the country without its explicit consent or risking it being left at the mercy of the extreme left Labour Party, whether under Corbyn or one of his colleagues.

Some see such a referendum as a way to prevent Brexit. But more and more Conservatives see it as a way of breaking the deadlock and delivering Brexit, without the perils of a general election.

Either way, it is in the interests of both our party and country to put it to the people.