One also has to wonder which side President Trump is helping with his frenetic campaign schedule:

Most voters say that President Trump will be a factor in how they vote in the midterm elections, and in competitive districts these voters break nearly two to one in saying that they are voting to show opposition to the president (42 percent) versus voting to show support for the president (23 percent). The president’s net approval rating in competitive districts, all but four of which are Republican seats, is -24.

Democratic candidates should be praying he comes to their state.

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The pollsters see this midterm cycle as the reverse of 2010, when voters also felt frustrated with the incumbent president (a Democrat, then). In both years, 49 percent of voters said they were “frustrated.” The big difference: Voters are a lot angrier today (39 percent) than they were in 2010 (25 percent).

Democrats also seem to have latched onto the issues voters care most about — the economy (70 percent) and health care (68 percent). Among Democrats, 80 percent say health care is the most important issue. Republicans are obsessing over issues that most voters don’t care all that much about (“recent hot-button issues such as trade, immigration and guns rank relatively low in voters’ minds at 36 percent, 45 percent and 48 percent”). That doesn’t mean there isn’t a rationale behind Trump beating the drum on these issues; he’s counting on intensity (which translates to turnout). Republicans, despite all their problems, narrowly lead on likelihood of voting (79 to 75 percent), although “turnout among Democratic voters often lags behind Republicans in midterm elections. Closing that gap in this election marks a significant change for Democrats.”

It’s polling like and from loads of other surveys that explain why FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver gives Democrats a 5 in 6 chance to win the House. (Remember, though, that events with a 1 in 6 chance happen frequently in our lives.) After 2016, every caveat imaginable should be applied here (e.g., plenty of time left, turnout is critical, margins of error matter).

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