American intelligence failure in Syria: Column Obama administration stammers: Putin didn't surprise us... though we thought he'd turn on Assad... but he'll sink in Mideast quagmire.

James S. Robbins | USA TODAY

The White House insists that Russia’s increasingly bold intervention in Syria is a sign of Russia's weakness. Obama administration officials will probably keep keep using this kind of double talk right up until Moscow declares victory.

Russia’s move into Syria forced the administration and its defenders to explain why this wasn’t the biggest intelligence failure since the Iraq war. The signs of an impending campaign were there: Russia asking for increased overflight permission from neighboring countries; runways in Syria being lengthened to accommodate large transports and bombers; and advanced fighter aircraft showing up in-country that the Syrians were not trained to fly. In response, the White House chose to “take a wait and see” approach, which is not really an approach so much as doing nothing.

The White House claimed not to have been caught by surprise, though House Intelligence Committee member Rep. Adam B. Schiff, D-Calif., says it would have been perfectly understandable if they had been.

“I don’t know, frankly, that [Russia’s president Vladimir] Putin knew that he was going to do that until he made the decision,” Schiff said. “I’m not sure even Putin’s inner circle would have seen it coming.”

If so, Putin's invasion is history’s first example of a surprise attack that surprised even the attackers.

Putin had said he was prepared to attack the “terrorists” in Syria, which to the administration meant the Islamic State. But the Russians define terrorists to include anyone fighting Assad, including our CIA-backed rebels, a minor detail lost on the Obama team. The administration was also lulled into a false sense of security by the peculiar belief, perhaps based on disinformation floated by Moscow, that the Russians were going to cut their most loyal ally in the Arab world loose. Even last week an unnamed U.S. official still held out hope that Russia intended to turn on Assad in order to “negotiate a settlement favorable to Russia.” But why should Russia negotiate anything if they are winning?

Another anonymous U.S. official said that Moscow’s move “improves morale” of the CIA-backed rebels because “now they get to fight the Russians.” Yes it must be a real morale booster after having seen Russian forces reduce Grozny, Chechnya, to a lifeless moonscape. Plus with the U.S. rushing to get its assets out of Russia’s way, there will be no possibility of air or fire support. Add to that the fact that the administration is not willing to send sophisticated anti-air weapons to the rebels and their mood must be festive indeed.

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“Russia is not stronger as a consequence of what they’ve been doing,” President Obama cautioned at his Oct. 2 press conference, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding. He said that this campaign was simply an attempt to raise Putin’s poll numbers at home; meanwhile Obama’s foreign policy approval ratings remain solidly underwater. He denied that there was a “proxy war” between the United States and Russia, news that might come as a surprise to the insurgent proxies America is supporting against a Russian client state. “This is not some superpower chessboard contest,” Obama declared, “and anybody who frames it in that way isn’t paying very close attention to what’s been happening on the chessboard.” I.e., the chessboard on which there is no contest. Press secretary Josh Earnest later expanded on the board game analogy, saying “I don’t think President Putin is playing chess, he’s playing checkers.” But President Obama is the one who keeps saying “king me.”

The White House has a ready critique of all the mistakes the Russians are supposedly making. They are being pulled into a "quagmire." They are "alienating" the Sunni community. They are "isolat[ing]" themselves globally. But it’s odd how the facts on the ground won’t cooperate with administration spin. Meanwhile regardless of his fumbles, missteps and failures in Syria, President Obama projects the image of unflappable calm, of confidence, of cool and detached control, like the idealized captain of a doomed vessel as it slips beneath the waters.

James S. Robbins is a member of the USA TODAY Board of Contributors and is the author of The Real Custer: From Boy General to Tragic Hero.

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