The Oakland Police Department releases updated crime statistics every week. The statistics for the week of May 20th to May 26th, 2019 show that murders in Oakland are up almost 50% this year compared to the same time last year.

A portion of Oakland PD’s released Weekly Crime Report for May 20th to May 26th, 2019

We’ll take a closer look at the rise in murders, but first, let’s recap the notable statistics for the week:

The Numbers

Homicides and Shootings

Murders: 2

Shootings*: 29

People Shot: 5

*The count for shootings only includes incidents where 1) a person is shot, 2) when police have evidence that a person was shot at, or 3) when there is evidence that a building or other object was struck by gunfire. They do not include calls for gunfire or incidents where the only evidence is shell casings.

Robberies

Gunpoint: 16

Strong-armed: 18

Knife: 0

Other weapons: 2

Home-Invasion: 0

Carjacking: 3

Map of robberies in Oakland from May 20th to May 26th, 2019

Source: CrimeMapping.com

Other

Non-firearm aggravated assaults: 29

Rapes: 0

Home break-ins: 17

Cars stolen: 88

Murders in Oakland Up 50%

The most notable part about this week’s report is the year-to-date numbers for murders in 2019 compared to 2018. The year-to-date count for murders in Oakland this year is 31, compared to 21 at the same time last year in 2018. This is an increase of almost 50%.



It should be noted that non-murder homicides, which include accidental or legally justified killings, are not included in the tally and are categorized by OPD separately. These are not reported to the FBI for their Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) national data collection, and are not used by the City of Oakland or the Mayor’s Office when they report year-end statistics.

Map of Homicides in Oakland year-to-date. Updated May 29, 2019

Source: East Bay Times

Murders in May

In May, seven people were murdered in Oakland:

Faces of the Victims

Here are photos of some of the victims we were able to find through the National Gun Violence Memorial page. If you have any photos you’d like to add of the victims, please send them to us.

Anthony Nhep

Hadiyah Shakir

David Willis (Left)

Gustavo Fuentes Ponce

Is the Increase in Oakland Murders an Expected Statistical Deviation, or a Cause for Concern?

Crime Statistics Analysis

Analyzing crime statistics, including murders, can be tricky. Academic analysis and research of crime rates suggest that comparisons of two separate years are not reliable indicators of overall crime trends in a city. This is because there are numerous factors that contribute to crime. Many of these factors may be outside of the control of the police or other city entities.

Possible Explanations for a Statistical Anomaly

One year’s increases (or decreases) may be caused by factors that aren’t normally there, but are present at that point due merely to statistical chance. For instance, one year may have an unusually high number of unconnected murders relating to family conflicts. These typically occur in the heat-of-the-moment and inside of residences. In these situations, there is little that the police or other entities can do to deter and prevent these.



Additionally, whenever someone is shot, chance or luck plays a role in whether the wound they receive is fatal. One year may have an unusually high number of fatal gunshot wounds compared to the average of previous years simply due to the combination of bad luck for a high number of victims.

Scene of a murder in the 4100 block of Market Street on April 26, 2019

Source: KPIX

If this is the case, then the following year or measured time period is more likely to go back closer to whatever the average is. This is why academics in the field typically suggest looking at three-year averages for more reliable indicators of crime trends. With that said, we still find that the increase is notable.

A Sharp Increase in Total Shootings – Not Just in Murders

Although statistical chance may have played a role in the increase, it becomes difficult to attribute most of it to that when there is such a sizable increase almost halfway into the year. An increase in 10 murders at this point in the year for a city that finished the previous year with a 20-year-low of 68 murders is significant.

Additionally, although the number of reported firearm assaults this year hasn’t significantly increased, the number of shootings where unoccupied buildings or cars are struck by gunfire has risen steeply. Last year at this time, there were 178 of those incidents. This year, the total is 295 so far – an increase of 66%. Although shooting at an unoccupied vehicle may not sound as bad as someone being shot at, oftentimes, the only difference is police having evidence to prove that someone was shot at.

Photo from a quadruple shooting in Summer 2018 where one was killed in the 8900 block of MacArthur Blvd

Source: Jane Tyska – Bay Area News Group

For example: Person A sees Person B walking down the street. Person A shoots at Person B and misses, instead striking a parked car. Person B runs away and doesn’t report the incident to the police. Police arrive, find shell casings, and find the car hit by gunfire. Without a witness or a surveillance camera showing that a person was shot at, the incident is categorized as Shooting at an Unoccupied Vehicle rather than what it actually was – Assault with a Firearm.

The only reasonable explanation we can think of for such an increase in this category is that a lot more people are shooting at each other, or the same group of people are shooting at each other a lot more, in 2019. The only other explanation is that OPD officers suddenly became better at finding unoccupied buildings or cars that were hit by bullets, which appears unlikely.

Oakland Police at a 2018 murder in the 1300 block of 72nd Ave

A Likely Increase in Street Gun Violence for 2019

Given the steep rise in murders year-to-date, and a correlated significant rise in shootings of unoccupied vehicles/buildings, it appears likely that there are a lot more shootings in Oakland in 2019 compared to 2018.

The explanations for the rise in murders being due to phenomena such as a higher incidence of fatal gunshot wounds due to bad luck, or an anomalous increase in family-dispute murders, are less convincing. An increase in street gun violence appears to be the better explanation for the increase for the rise in murders.

OPD used to release a monthly report documenting the number of calls for gunshots, which would have been helpful in further assessing this, but they appeared to have discontinued the distribution of these.

The most recent Oakland Police gunshot report

More Shootings – But Possibly Less People Getting Hit

If one operates under the assumption that many reports of unoccupied vehicles/buildings being struck by gunfire are actually unreported firearm assaults, then the City of Oakland may have actually also benefited from statistical chance in their favor: the total number of shooting victims hasn’t significantly increased so far this year compared to 2018 despite the 66% increase in shootings.

If this is the case, should we expect a maintained, or even higher rate of murders for the rest of the year as less people escape unscathed from being shot at?

What’s driving the increase in shootings? Is it gang violence, drug-dealing turf wars, pimps fighting over territory on International Boulevard, a combination of the above, and/or something else? OPD or city officials haven’t commented much on this increase in murders and violence, and the rise has not been documented by media sources. But glancing over news articles on this year’s murders, most of them appear to be shootings in public with the potential for retaliation.

What is Being Done to Stop the Murders and Shootings in Oakland?

Oakland Police and Ceasefire

The Oakland Police Department, in partnership with a host of other city and non-profit entities, has experienced success in reducing shootings between groups and gangs through the Ceasefire model. The City of Oakland often touts this approach as a significant driver in the reduction of homicides in recent years. OPD has been continuing to utilize this amid the rise in murders in 2019. You can read more about the crime-fighting strategy here.

Earlier in May, the Ceasefire unit culminated a seven-month-long investigation into a “super-group” of people that joined forces from several separate gangs. Police said that they had identified the group to be involved in a disproportionate amount of shootings in Oakland.

OPD and other agencies raided over a dozen places in the East Bay, arrested 16 people, and found several guns. OPD said that this is on top of another 24 people that were arrested and another 20 guns that were recovered during the long-term investigation.

Oakland Police arrest in the 1000 block of 76th Avenue

Two of the guns Oakland Police got in a raid at a house in the 800 block of 47th Street

Police Overtime

On top of the Ceasefire approach, Oakland PD has also been pouring in overtime this year for an increased police presence in areas that have been plagued with shootings.

Fixed Police Presence in Problem Areas

Oakland police officers have been assigned to park a police car and have a visible presence on blocks or intersections that have experienced large numbers of shootings this year. These positions are covered every day for about 12 hours on overtime.

There are about five or six of these positions in East Oakland, where a disproportionate amount of gang violence is.

Hotspot Policing

On top of officers sitting on specific areas that have been experiencing gun violence, there is a contingent of officers that patrol hotspots where shootings have occurred and are expected to occur. The officers patrol these specific areas in hopes of deterring future violence. They also attempt to pull over those believed to be involved in violence, as part of the department’s larger shift to “intelligence-led policing”, in hopes of specifically deterring these people from engaging in gun violence.

These positions, due to chronic understaffing at OPD, are fully staffed by overtime. On any given weekend, there can be up to two dozen officers assigned to this on top of the fixed posts.

After Gang Takedown, and Despite Increased Presence, A Broad Daylight Gang Shooting Kills an Innocent Bystander

Despite the extra police presence and OPD’s arrests of over a dozen people believed to be involved in gang and gun violence, shootings and gang violence have persisted.

The murder of Hadiyah Shakir on May 22nd, 2019 in the 7400 block of Weld Street occurred only one week after the gang takedown. It happened in broad daylight (around 6:50pm), and occurred only five blocks away from one of OPD’s fixed overtime posts at 77th and Halliday.

Edited Oakland Police radio traffic of the murder on Weld Street

Source: Broadcastify

According to the scanner, at least three shooters fired 25 rounds from 78th and Weld. They were apparently aiming down the block, since Ms. Shakir was shot in the 7400 block of Weld Street.

Based on social media posts, and the distance from where the victim was to the shooters, Ms. Shakir appears to have been the unintended target and an innocent bystander struck by an errant round. She leaves behind two children.

Hadiyah Shakir

Given the limited information we have about the shooting, it seems to be linked to gangs and/or drug sales. As such, there is a strong likelihood of retaliatory violence.

One reader tells us that the block is an open-air drug market where drug dealers and gang members hang out. OPD does not conduct enforcement in this area despite repeated complaints by area residents, with OPD citing bigger issues to respond to with their limited staffing.

Google Maps Street View of the 7400 block of Weld Street

The Coming Months

Hopes for a Reduction in Murders in Oakland

Hopefully, the recent Ceasefire gang takedown will result in a notable reduction in the rate of murders and shootings this year.

However, it is possible that Oakland is experiencing gun violence between other people or groups outside of those that were targeted in the raids. If this is the case, the Ceasefire approach will likely be unable to have a significant impact, as the strategy typically takes at least several months to come into fruition.

It takes time to identify those that are most likely to be involved in shootings, reach out to them, offer resources to change their lifestyle, and develop enough information to be able to arrest those that refuse and continue to engage in that lifestyle. And this strategy only focuses on one group at a time. Swift apprehension of shooters is ideal, as it quickly disrupts a potential retaliatory cycle of violence.

Scene of a January 2019 triple murder in West Oakland

Source: KTVU

City Council Scrutiny of Oakland Police Overtime and the Possible Impact on Shootings

The influx of police overtime to address violence comes at an interesting time when City Council members are scrutinizing OPD overtime costs. These discussions have been brought up against a backdrop of the creation of a new budget for the upcoming fiscal year.

For at the least the past several years, OPD has been outspending its overtime budget by significant amounts. The biggest chunk of overtime costs come from the following:

Covering empty patrol beats

When officers’ shifts are extended for reasons such as when a murder happens late in the shift, an officer has a significant arrest that requires a lot of time to fill out the paperwork, there’s a large search for suspects that requires many officers, etc

Paying officers holiday pay when they work on holidays

“Special Enforcement”: These include assignments dealing with sideshows, overtime to assist units like Ceasefire on operations, and the extra officer presence in dealing with surges of violence like the ones described earlier

OPD Overtime Budget and Expenditures

Members of the City Council have called for OPD to report back on why the overtime costs have exceeded the budgeted amounts. If OPD consistently exceeds its overtime budget, is it because of unchecked irresponsible spending? Or is OPD given an unreasonably low overtime budget every year? We suspect that we’ll have a better idea when OPD reports back to the Council.

Reduced Police Presence in the New Fiscal Year?

If Councilmembers are not satisfied with OPD’s responses, and the new fiscal year begins, will pressure from the City Council to scale back overtime costs increase? If so, will it result in the reduction of extra police presence in hotspots, which are fully funded by overtime and account for a sizable portion of overtime costs?

We think it’s possible, as there doesn’t appear to be any discussion or recognition of a relationship between OPD overtime expenditures and an impact on violence reduction within City Hall.

At least one Councilmember, Niki Fortunato Bas, took it a step further than her fellow Councilmembers regarding the discussion of OPD and finances. As part of her priorities for the new budget, she has proposed reducing OPD’s budget so that funds can be redirected elsewhere for social services.

Councilmember Niki Fortunato Bas

Council President Rebecca Kaplan responded to the Mayor’s proposed budget with her own version, which includes cuts in funding to OPD. There are a number of pressing issues in Oakland such as homelessness, housing, conditions of streets, etc that are battling for funding this year. We will see come July 1st if these take priority over police funding.

Council President Rebecca Kaplan

Bottom Line

Whether the overtime for an increased police presence remains or not, if the rate of murders continue, with shootings as brazen as the one on Weld Street, then Oakland is in for a violent Summer.