Republicans, worried about preserving their House and Senate majorities in the face of fierce headwinds, are accelerating their plans to distance themselves from Donald Trump — and may soon concede, if only implicitly, his defeat.

Party strategists are mapping out blueprints for down-ballot candidates, in TV ads and on the campaign trail, to present themselves as checks on a Hillary Clinton presidency. It’s an approach that would essentially admit a Trump loss. In interviews, nearly one dozen Republican operatives said they had begun poll-testing the idea — which one labeled a “break glass in case of emergency” strategy — to gauge how the public would react to it.


It would represent a remarkable step — one not seen since 1996, when down-ballot Republicans, resigned to Bob Dole’s loss, campaigned as backstops to Bill Clinton’s second term. It comes at a time of mounting unease among Republicans about Trump’s prospects and how it will impact the fortunes of others. In recent days, a debate has begun to simmer among the party’s operatives about whether it will soon be time for the Republican National Committee to cut Trump off and redirect resources to congressional lawmakers.

“It would be political malpractice if you weren’t exploring the effectiveness of that messaging strategy,” said Rob Autry, a Republican pollster who’s looking into the idea. “If the current polling trends hold true, then down-ballot Republicans will need to start thinking outside the box.”

David Kochel, a veteran GOP strategist, said the party’s Senate hopefuls "should be watching to see where the bottom might be" for Trump. “It's still early, but some campaigns will need to come up with new and interesting ways to create distance from the top of the ticket,” he added.

The deliberations extend to the highest levels of the party. American Crossroads, the influential conservative group co-founded by Karl Rove, has tested to see how voters would feel about Republicans casting themselves as being a check and balance to Hillary Clinton, according to four sources familiar with the deliberations. It has examined the question in a number of Senate races on the ballot this fall, said one person working with the group, who added that “it’s a question of not if but when” the group begins putting the message into TV ads. (An American Crossroads spokesman declined to comment on the talks, citing a desire not to discuss internal strategy.)

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which serves as the official House Republican campaign arm, has requested that imperiled candidates begin polling to see how voters in their districts would respond to a check-based campaign, according to two people who work with the group. (An NRCC spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.)

GOP Rep. Bob Dold, who faces the hurdle of running for reelection in a liberal suburban Chicago district, is also considering the approach, according to two advisers. One recent Dold internal survey found that while Republican voters were deeply unhappy with Trump, they overwhelmingly wanted their member of Congress to be a check on Clinton. Already, Dold has taken great pains to distinguish himself from the Republican nominee, even stressing that he won’t vote for him.

Republicans haven’t begun the offensive yet — but they’re flirting with it. Earlier this month, House Speaker Paul Ryan sent out a fundraising appeal, declaring, “If we fail to protect our majority in Congress, we could be handing President Hillary Clinton a blank check.” This week, Mitt Romney told a group of donors on a conference call that a Clinton win is likely and that the party needs to focus resources on down-ballot races so the party could oppose her.

And on Thursday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee began airing a TV ad casting Indiana Democrat Evan Bayh as a rubber stamp for a Clinton presidency. “He’s with her, not Indiana,” the commercial concludes.

Republicans say the strategy could go into full effect next month, as races intensify and early voting nears in some key battlegrounds. With Trump’s poll numbers deteriorating, they add, time is of the essence.

GOP Rep. Bob Dold, who faces the hurdle of running for reelection in a liberal suburban Chicago district, has taken great pains to distinguish himself from Donald Trump, even stressing that he won’t vote for him. | Getty

In positioning themselves as brake-pedals to Clinton, Republicans hope to appeal to swing voters who are deeply unhappy with both presidential nominees. While much of the public is aligned against Trump, there’s a rich vein of voters who want to ensure that Clinton does not have too much power.

“Anti-Trump voters who are reluctantly voting for Hillary may be the swing vote this cycle,” said Andy Sere, a Republican ad maker who is working on over a half-dozen competitive down-ballot races. “She's unpopular even in states and districts that she'll carry easily, which means voters aren't giving her a mandate — they want a check and balance against her.”

It wouldn’t be without risk, however. In writing off Trump before Election Day arrives, Republican candidates could risk alienating his supporters — a voting bloc they desperately need.

To many, the 2016 campaign is evoking echoes of 1996. That fall, as the party’s campaign apparatus shifted focus from electing Dole to protecting the GOP congressional majorities, the NRCC aired a commercial warning that if Democrats won majorities in Congress and retained the White House it would result in higher taxes and more federal spending. “The liberal special interests aligned with Clinton desperately want to buy back control of Congress,” it warned. “If we give the special interests a blank check in Congress, who’s going to represent us?”

The triage worked. Republicans lost only two seats in the House and gained two in the Senate.

Some say it’s too early for Republicans to begin that campaign. For it to be effective, they argue, voters need to have decided that Trump can’t win — a conclusion the public hasn’t reached yet.

Chris Wilson, a prominent GOP pollster, said he was closely examining who voters believed would win the presidential race. More than half of the electorate, he said, was convinced Clinton would be the next president.

“That’s getting close to the point where we would start recommending our candidates pursue more of a midterm strategy and treat Clinton like a de facto incumbent,” he said, adding that he was holding off because Trump could still close the gap.

“Just the fact that we’re considering this counsel,” he said, “is another sign of how sadly strange this cycle is.”

Rachael Bade contributed to this report.