Sheila Dikshit Sheila Dikshit

Harsh Vardhan Harsh Vardhan

Arvind Kejriwal Arvind Kejriwal

The anti-incumbency factor is clearly working against the Congress in Delhi as the three-time Chief Minister, Sheila Dikshit, not only seems to be conceding power to main opposition party BJP, but might even lose election from the New Delhi constituency to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal.An India Today-ORG post-poll survey predicts a clear victory for the BJP, giving it 41 seats in the 70-member Assembly, ahead of 20 for the Congress and six to the AAP. The other parties and Independents' overall tally is also likely to fall from four in 2008 to three.The BJP's gain of seats comes despite the loss of 1 per cent vote share as it is the Congress which is likely to face a sharp decline in its vote share to 30 per cent from 40 per cent five years ago. Contesting its maiden election, AAP might show a healthy 20 per cent vote share, which is likely to get it six seats.Among the three leading chief ministerial candidates BJP's Harsh Vardhan came out as the most popular leader.Out of nearly 3,000 respondents 37 voters said the BJP leader, who is a doctor by profession, should become the CM. The incumbent finished at number two with 29 per cent votes, followed by Kejriwal at 25 per cent.When the question was restricted to the New Delhi constituency, Kejriwal emerged as the most favourite CM candidate of Delhi as he got 35 per cent votes. He was followed by 33 per cent votes to Dikshit and 27 per cent to Harsh Vardhan.The contest at the New Delhi Assembly constituency would be as interesting as the poll in the entire national capital as Dikshit and Kejriwal are seemed to be engaged in a triangular fight with the BJP heavyweight Vijendra Gupta.As many as 1,000 people were approached as part of the pre and post-poll survey in the high profile constituency and Kejriwal polled 36 per cent votes, followed by Dikshit with 31 per cent votes and Gupta at 28 per cent. The chief minister thus seems to be losing 21 per cent votes as compared to the 2008 results, while Gupta looks suffering a loss of 6 per cent vote share.Pollsters, however, issued a word of caution as Kejriwal has a lead of only 5 per cent votes, lower than the margin of error of 6 per cent for the survey.