BJP finally opened its account in Kerala with veteran leader O.P. Rajagopal winning from Nemom. In Manjeshwar, it lost by a whisker (89 votes). BJP led NDA recorded c.15 percent vote share almost tripling its share compared to 2011 assembly polls.



The social combination in alliance with SNDP / BJDS helped the alliance finish second in another nine seats. This is despite a violent competition with the Communists and with both the UDF and LDF aiming fire at the BJP. In many seats, BJP succeeded in converting a bipolar into a triangular contest having sucked out both Ezhava and Nair votes from both the LDF and UDF. The big question is, ‘Can BJP win Kerala in 2021?’ ‘Will Kerala be the second South India state to go saffron?’

Factors which could work in BJP’s favour-

1. BJP increasingly displacing Left as the Hindu party of the state

Traditionally Left has been the Hindu party of Kerala enjoying the support of a large portion of Ezhavas and other Dalits along with sizeable number of upper castes. These groups account for most of the Hindu population in the state.



The Congress on the other hand has been supported by the minorities with sizeable number of Nairs and Dalits. In the last two elections, the BJP has expanded its vote base from its hardcore voters to impact both the Left as well as the Congress. Around three-fourth of BJP’s vote share came from Ezhavas and Nairs.