Obama's 'big mo' could capsize Clinton's ship

Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., canvases door to door in San Antonio Texas., Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2008. At left is Bexar County Commissioner Paul Elizondo. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) less Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., canvases door to door in San Antonio Texas., Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2008. At left is Bexar County Commissioner Paul Elizondo. (AP Photo/Carolyn ... more Photo: Carolyn Kaster Photo: Carolyn Kaster Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close Obama's 'big mo' could capsize Clinton's ship 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

In the wake of Sen. Barack Obama's remarkable 8-0 record of Democratic contest victories in the past week, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential bid is threatened by an important reality in politics: her opponent's momentum.

While Clinton's strategists say she is a strong contender, veteran California campaign consultants who have been up against the "big mo" say the Illinois senator's wave of support is looking more likely to swamp Clinton's hopes to be the party's nominee with key votes in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania in the coming weeks.

Bob Gardner, a veteran political ad man and Republican who has worked with candidates including Gerald Ford and Dick Cheney, said the shifting momentum has turned the race between Clinton, once considered the indomitable leader, and Obama, the former upstart, into an entirely new kind of competition.

"It's Mac versus PC, Starbucks versus Dunkin' Donuts, Leno versus Letterman," said Gardner, who heads San Francisco-based The Advocacy Group, a crisis communications, corporate and political ad shop. "Hillary is a candidate; Obama is a movement."

Obama took possession of the front-runner flag this week with a clean sweep Tuesday of the Potomac Primaries - the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland - on the heels of wins in Sunday's Maine caucuses and Saturday's wins in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and the Virgin Islands.

The projected delegate count by the Associated Press puts Obama ahead of Clinton, 1275 to 1220 - with 2,025 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

Clinton has not only been on a losing streak on the big election board - the New York senator has been hit by a campaign staff shakeup and the perception that her fundraising, though formidable, can't match Obama's record-breaking take on the Internet, which reached $32 million in one recent month.

"I just don't see how the numbers work for her," longtime Democratic consultant Garry South said. "She would have to win 65 percent victories" in most of the big remaining states to surpass Obama in delegates "and get to where she needs to be to win."

"The momentum isn't with her," said South, the former senior adviser to California Gov. Gray Davis. "It's an indefinable factor in a political campaign - but an important one."

Adam Mendelsohn, a longtime adviser to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, said being on the downside of political momentum is "like flying a plane. When you go into a tailspin like this, the question is: Do you have enough time to pull yourself out?"

"Barack Obama controls it now," Mendelsohn said of the presidential campaign field. "He has the strength, the money and he has the front-runner status. He controls his fate. It may not be up to her to change it."

With two weeks until the big March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas - widely considered Clinton's last best hope for delegates to get her closer to the nomination - her campaign this week has sought to counter the growing notion that she is on the ropes after what may have been her campaign's worst week.

Mark Penn, the Clinton campaign's chief strategist, downplayed the drama, telling reporters Wednesday in a conference call that "this is a competitive nomination race; it is not unusual historically for these races to seesaw back and forth."

"This is a tie ballgame, roughly," argues Howard Wolfson, the Clinton campaign's communications director. "Roughly, over 2,000 delegates have been selected. A handful of delegates separate the two candidates. Sen. Obama has had a good last couple of days and we believe we will have good days in March - and the nomination will remain extremely close throughout the process."

The losing streak has prompted the Clinton camp to get more aggressive on Obama - underscoring her ability to deliver on campaign promises, initiatives and ideas while pointing out his dreamy idealism and lack of details.

"Sen. Clinton is in the 21st century solutions business, as compared to the promise business," said Penn, who added that Clinton will connect with voters on that theme in the three delegate-rich states in March and April that constitute 61 percent of the remaining delegates she needs to win the nomination.

Some key Clinton supporters agree, insisting their candidate has been counted out before.

"I think everyone's trying to keep a cool head, as Hillary is, recognizing that this run-up is momentum for him," said Eleni Tsakopoulos-Kounalakis, president AKT Development Corp. of Sacramento and a longtime Clinton supporter and fundraiser.

Among Clinton supporters, she said, "the confidence is there," although she acknowledges there have been particular challenges this month.

"There's no question that if someone is talking about the details of health care and the economy and how to fix it, it doesn't make you feel as good as (when someone talks about) about hope and the future," she said. "It's very different. But I think it's who she is, the kind of person who tackles problems and solves them. He's the kind of person who inspires people with uplifting speeches."

Clinton's ability to provide a roadmap to change, she said, will resonate particularly with "working people, who are solidly for her."

But Obama insiders, like former California state controller and key Obama fundraiser Steve Westly, the Illinois senator's current success and momentum "didn't happen overnight."

"It's been building. He's hitting his full stride at just the right time," Westly said. "In sports, they talk about being a 'game-day' player," someone who can rise to the challenge of pressure and high stakes. ... He's a game-day player.

"He's not only a better campaigner than anyone in American politics today," Westly said. "But in two weeks on the ground in those upcoming states, he will impress a lot of people. You add money to that and it makes him very hard to beat."

South, who has not endorsed in the race, said those two camps will keep up the battle - so it's not over yet.

But unless there's a shift in the "big mo," it may be that the best scenario for a Clinton nomination may come down to "you hope the other side screws up," he said. "That's a pretty thin reed on which to base a prospect of success."