Even a U.S.-backed mission could be attractive to the Chinese, especially if the U.S. military's public role is diminished to some extent. China recently branded the United States as a destabilizing force globally in a new national defense policy white paper and involving itself in maritime security in the Middle East would offer an ideal opportunity to show that it can be a viable alternative to the U.S. government. The rapidly growing size of the PLAN means that China's contribution to any mission in the region could be very visible even as part of a larger multinational force.

"The coalition that we're building in the Arabian Gulf and specifically in the Strait of Hormuz is going to be a 80- or 90-percent coalition effort," U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Michael Gilday, who is set to be the next Chief of Naval Operations, explained to members of Congress during his confirmation hearing on July 31, 2019. "A much smaller U.S. effort is primarily focused on providing intelligence support to the rest of the coalition."

Still, the U.S. government has, so far, left many questions about how unified the command structure for coalition it is building will be, as well as details about the U.S. military's exact role within that framework, largely unanswered. China continues to trade and otherwise actively engage with Iran and Beijing could be very wary of putting itself into any position where it might find itself called upon to engage Iranian forces to defend another country's ships.

So, by the same token, China might look into the U.S.-backed mission and still ultimately decide to offer up its own competing framework entirely separate from any U.S. government influence. Whether or not the United States succeeds in getting additional allies and partners to agree to its plan first could be the deciding factor.

"They [CENTCOM] had a sourcing conference last week. I want to say we had 30-plus countries attend," Secretary of Defense Esper had told reporters on Aug. 2019. "And we have various degrees of commitment, so I think we'll have some announcements coming out soon in the coming days, where you'll see countries begin to sign up."

It will certainly be interesting to see how this U.S.-backed coalition evolves, what America's role looks like in the end, and whether or not China is among the countries that ultimately agree to participate.

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com