Some of the north-east’s most congested roads are expected to experience a major drop-off in traffic, particularly freight traffic, as vehicles use the new tollway instead. The greatest relief will be felt in Greensborough Road, Rosanna Road, Fitzsimons Lane and Lower Plenty Road, which are forecast to see a cut in traffic volumes of between 20 and 50 per cent. Other roads will see an increase, including the notoriously jammed end of the Eastern Freeway near Hoddle Street, which is forecast to squeeze in an extra 10,000 vehicles a day by 2036. The business case for the North East Link puts the road in economically positive territory, calculating that it will deliver $1.30 in economic benefits for every dollar spent on the project, increasing to $1.40 once wider economic benefits including improved business productivity are included.

Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video The estimated cost has also been refined to $15.8 billion, shaving about $700 million from the Andrews government’s previous $16.5 billion cost estimate. The project still promises to be the most expensive in Victoria’s history. The Andrews government has pledged to put the project out to market within 100 days of being re-elected if it wins the November 24 state poll.

The road would take about eight years to build and open in 2027. Premier Daniel Andrews said the government’s business case showed the road would save motorists 30 minutes' travel time across the north-east and create more than 10,000 jobs during construction. “But the most important thing about this project is it stacks up, it creates jobs and it gives local roads back to local residents,” Mr Andrews said. “It stacks up in stark contrast to other projects that others are completely fixated with that deliver 45¢ for every dollar that you spend,” he said. Voters will face a choice between two toll roads later this year.

In early 2015 Labor cancelled the East West Link, another toll road project, and released a business case that found the road had a negative benefit-cost ratio of 0.45. The cancellation cost taxpayers about $1.2 billion in compensation payments to companies that had signed contracts with the previous Coalition government. The Coalition remains committed to the East West Link and has promised to build it before the North East Link if it is elected. Opposition public transport spokesman David Davis said people in Melbourne’s north-east would have to wait nine more years for relief from traffic congestion, while construction of the East West Link would have been well under way by now if Labor had not cancelled it. "People in the north of Melbourne, people in the east of Melbourne will get absolutely no congestion relief from Daniel Andrews until at least 2027," Mr Davis said.

The business case says the project will be delivered as a public-private partnership. Information on estimated toll revenue and possible tolling charges has been redacted as commercial-in-confidence. Forecast traffic volumes on the North East Link have also been redacted. But it is forecast the road will reduce the number of crashes in the area by 100 a year. Public Transport Users Association spokesman Daniel Bowen said the business case also showed that public transport use is below average in Melbourne’s north-east, and the project would further cement this situation.

“While it's understandable that the government wants to reduce delays for freight, like every other motorway, the North East Link will end up clogged with private cars,” Mr Bowen said. The RACV declined to comment until it had more time to analyse the business case. The 11-kilometre North East Link will be built from the Eastern Freeway at Bulleen to the eastern end of the M80 in Greensborough. The northern section of the road will run at ground level before dropping into a cutting south of Watsonia railway station, then into twin three-lane tunnels just north of Lower Plenty Road. The tollway will then rise to a viaduct just north of Koonung Creek to connect to the Eastern Freeway.

There will be interchanges built at Greensborough Bypass, Grimshaw Street, Lower Plenty Road and Manningham Road. It will also include the Doncaster Busway, a new high-capacity rapid bus service running in the freeway median.