Hola to the Birdos.

This is the first in a series of posts where I will analyze some serious upgrades the Cardinals could look to pursue this offseason.

There is a black hole in right field. The Cardinals recognize they need to act. I believe Mozeliak wants to add a core offensive player. Best case scenario: Find someone who hits righties in right field and lefties at first base. We must recognize this is highly unlikely. We can still dream about who could fill this position. The best player who fits this description is...

Jose Bautista. He plays first and right. He crushed lefties last year, to the tune of a .345 BA. When healthy, this dude can RAKE. In his 3 mostly uninjured seasons, his average WAR is 6.8. @joeybats is a franchise type player. The Blue Jays are not likely to trade him, but everyone is available for the right price. The Blue Jays are in a win now phase and currently are seeking starting pitching. The Cardinals would need to overpay to create a star in the place of their black hole (pun intended). Here are the necessary aspects to get it done.

Money

Jose makes fourteen million next year, with a 2016 player option for the same amount of money. The Cardinals easily have that money. No problem here. The Blue Jays could get off the hook here, and they are said to have money problems. They have lots of money coming off the books, and, coupled with this trade, they would be able to pursue the big time starter they have wanted over the last couple of years. In return, we would give them some quality, cost-controlled pitching talent.

What We Give Up

Here is the tricky part. Anthropolous wants to restock the farm system. He also wants to extend Jose Bautista. This means that they may not want to trade him. We may be grasping at straws. However, restocking the farm system is something the Cardinals are good at. The biggest problem is Bautista's age. The Cardinals may not want to resign him. However, the Cardinals recognize their window to compete did anything but widen when Taveras passed away. They need a core offensive talent. Two years of Bautista makes them NL favorites. Again. 6 WAR is necessary. Last year's team was mediocre. I think the Blue Jays would want two top prospects and a big league producer.

I point to Lance Lynn as a big league producer. He is very similar to the Jays Mark Buehrle. He constantly tops 200 innings, has an ERA below 3.50, and has as similar pitch repertoire. Lance Lynn is entering Arbitration, and if the Cardinals do not find it worth it to extend him, they may trade him while his value might be at its highest, as he outperformed his xFIP massively last year. He was great last year, but worth 0.4 WAR less than Buehrle. Buehrle had a higher BABIP than him, but Lynn struck out more batters. Lynn is much younger. Lynn is cheaper. If we give up three WAR and gain 6.5 WAR, we have to get 2.5 more WAR. Carlos Martinez could replace Lynn and make up that difference.

I do not want to give up El Gallo, so I will not even entertain the notion of trading him. Same thing goes for Shelby Miller. Same thing goes for Michael Wacha. Their value to a club is as a long term, cheap ace, and that is what makes them so attractive to other teams.

Prospects to Trade

Stephen Piscotty jumps to mind because he is both very valuable and he is deemed unnecessary if Bautista is there. He is Bautista's replacement if he gets injured, but is he more valuable than Borjous and Jay, or Jay and Grichuk in the immediate future? I do not think so.

If we give up an ace and a top prospect, you do not need to throw in a whole lot more, but a throw-in piece to sweeten the deal should do it. Peter Bourjos might do it. He wants to be traded. Tyrell Jenkins, he of the never-healing arm whose arm is a cousin with Jaime Garcia's arm, is another option whose value spiked when he excelled in the Arizona Fall League. Tim Cooney might be a good chip simply because he has not been overexposed at the Major League level yet. Patrick Wisdom profiles as a man in need of a scenery change with no home for about five years on the Major League affiliate. We could end up going and trading two or three of these guys and that would be overpaying. Did I not say we needed to overpay for a power hitting right fielder? Well we do. We probably will.

Let me know what you think of Bautista as a trade candidate and my analysis on what to send for him in the comments.

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Thanks for reading.