The federal government is bracing for 10% unemployment when jobless figures for the June quarter are released, almost twice the level of 5.1% recorded in February before the fight against the coronavirus closed businesses and pushed workers out of jobs.

But the government is already is arguing the jobs disaster for the three months to June could have been more like 15%. The only thing stopping this was the $130bn jobkeeper scheme passed by parliament last week to subsidise the wages of staff kept in employment.

The shock workforce deterioration will be foreshadowed by the latest figures for the March quarter to be released this week.

The treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, confirmed on Monday night the 10% rate was expected.

“In the absence of the $130bn jobkeeper payments, Treasury estimates the unemployment rate would be five percentage points higher and would peak at around 15%,” Frydenberg said in a statement.

“More than 800,000 businesses have already registered for jobkeeper payment, which will allow the economy to recover more quickly once we are through to the other side of the crisis.”

The government is expected to highlight its past employment credentials, pointing to a 2% jobs growth during 2019, and arguing Australia entered the Covid-19 crisis in a position of economic strength.

Frydenberg said the wage subsidy would “support millions of Australian jobs as we build a bridge to the other side” of the coronavirus emergency.

The Labor opposition will maintain attacks on jobs policy, particularly under-employment which has worsened, and the exclusion of some casual workers from the wage replacement scheme.

Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers has argued the wage scheme was a good move which could have been made “that much better”.

Labor wants it to cover more workers facing unemployment, particularly casuals who do not qualify for the jobkeeper provisions by having a long-term link to a single employer.