A new season of Survivor is almost upon us, and the show has a lot to live up to given the success of the previous season. Survivor: David vs. Goliath was considered one of the best seasons in the show’s near-20-year history, introducing us to fan favorites like Christian Hubicki and Davie Rickenbacker, controversial antiheroes like Natalie Cole and Angelina Keeley, and an A-tier winner in conniving country lawyer Nick Wilson.

So for its thirty-eighth season, Survivor is shaking things up with a new twist – the Isle of Extinction. While castaways have had a chance to get back in the game after being voted off before, with a controversial twist in the seventh season involving a secret tribe of the eliminated contestants and three later seasons featuring the challenge-based Redemption Island, it’s never been as big a part of the game as in this season.

This time, when a contestant is voted off, they’ll be given the choice of going to Ponderosa/the jury – or heading to the Isle of Extinction, a desolate island with no comforts of any kind where they’ll have to live off the land until a time in the future where they can fight for a chance to re-enter the game. Equal parts Survivor and the History Channel show Alone, it’s promising to add real elements of survivalism into the game in a way we haven’t seen in a long time. Will it work out? We’ll see. Dramatic new twists on Survivor are always a mixed bag.

Adding a wrinkle into the game is the presence of four returning players – three third-time players and a second-timer. They cover all the strengths of Survivor, and all but one has made a finale episode. While this seasons’ big twist is certain to test the contestants, it could also be seen as a sneaky way by the producers to ensure none of their star players get voted out early and disappear without having a chance to get back in – or a chance to get a lot more screentime on the Isle of Extinction.

Below, I’ll look at the eighteen contestants on Survivor: Edge of Extinction – four returning and fourteen new – and try to predict their general placement and the overall winner. Last season was a mixed bag prediction-wise as I got a lot of placements wrong – but did predict the overall winner, Nick Wilson, from day one. Let’s see if I can repeat my success!

Survivor: Edge of Extinction Pre-Launch Predictions –

Kama Tribe:

Joe Anglim, 29, Multimedia Artist

This season might as well be called Survivor: Joe Island as the titular twist seems made for the skilled fisherman and two-time returning player. Joe was always known more for his challenge and providing skills than his game skills, finishing mid-jury in both his games. Now he has a chance to return to the game near the end, putting him within striking distance of winning out on challenges. Does he have a very good chance of making it to the endgame? I think so. But will the jury respect his game? Outlook cloudy.

Prediction – Finalist

Aubry Bracco, 32, Marketing Director

Aubry holds one of the best records in Survivor history, making it to two finale episodes. Most people consider her loss in Koh Rong to be the show’s worst moment, and she made it to the finale of the controversial Game Changers season before being voted out. She has a fantastic social game and won’t come off as a liability, making it likely she’ll succeed in the early game again. But contestants are on to her skills now and will be very hesitant to let her sneak into another finale.

Prediction – Late Jury

Victoria Baamonde, 23, Waitress

I want to like Victoria, mainly because she talks a lot about her guinea pigs Peeve and Scamp. She seems fun, offbeat, and outdoorsy. But her bio has a lot of contradictions where she describes herself as carefree one minute and cunning the next. She seems like she’ll be a player who tries to make some big moves, but they’ll eventually blow up in her face.

Prediction – Post-Merge

Julia Carter, 24, Medical Assistant

A Survivor superfan who describes herself as adventurous and loves hiking, she seems to have the skills needed to make a run in this game. I expect her gameplay to turn out rather like last season’s Alison Raybould – I don’t know that she’ll get a lot of screentime, but she’ll play a solid game before eventually being outplayed near the end.

Prediction – Post-Merge

Ron Clark, 46, Teacher/Private School Founder

Ron is the closest thing to a celebrity on this season’s cast, a nationally regarded educator and education activist. He seems intense and highly competitive, and he’s in the sweet spot when it comes to older contestants – he’s old enough not to be seen as an immediate threat, but not old enough that his age becomes a detriment. It seems likely that he’ll slip into a leadership role on his tribe – but that guy often becomes a target at the merge. I think Ron has some tricks up his sleeve, but not enough to close the deal.

Prediction – Post-Merge

Eric Hafemann, 34, Firefighter

This is a different game than any other season, as most of the contestants will have to play two games – first they have to survive the social game, then they have to survive the Isle of Extinction. Eric the firefighter is a charismatic, likable alpha male who is likely to be a natural asset to his tribe – and if he winds up voted out, his skills are more than enough to survive the isolation. I think he has the skill sets needed to go all the way.

Prediction – WINNER

Aurora McCreary, 32, Divorce Lawyer

Aurora likes to talk a big game, her life story has given her real grit, and being an attorney her analytical skills are likely to be a major asset. But look at her favorite players – Tyson, Ciera, Michaela. Those are vocal and dramatic players, but only Tyson has displayed real game skills and they’ve all found themselves in trouble early. I think Aurora’s likely to play hard, but overplaying will get her into trouble early.

Prediction – Early Boot

Julie Rosenberg, 46, Toymaker

Oh, Julie. One of the most overtly eccentric contestants Survivor has had in a while, this NYC independent toymaker openly describes herself as neurotic and seems like a combination of an older Hannah Shapiro and a SLIGHTLY more stable Debbie Wanner. I have no doubt she’ll be wildly entertaining while she’s here, but I think she’s here for a good time, not for a long time.

Prediction – Pre-Merge

Gavin Whitson, 23, YMCA Program Director

Describing himself as a younger version of fan-favorite Survivor redneck Keith Nale, this young Tennessee boy is easily the most enthusiastic member of the show’s cast. A superfan who plans to draw on his experience of running a summer camp to make friends, I think he’ll do well in the game – but I also think he’s this season’s most likely lovable underdog who falls short. He might be a future Survivor winner, but I don’t think it’s in this game.

Prediction – Post-Merge

Manu Tribe:

Kelley Wentworth, 31, Marketing Manager

Kelley was an unmemorable pre-jury boot in her first season, but in Survivor: Second Chance she lived up to the title and proved herself a serious contender in both social game and challenges. She was likely one challenge away from winning the game before Jeremy Collins took the win. Now she’s returning as one of the most obvious threats in the game, and she’s likely to have to work a lot harder to take the title. I think she’s strong and likable enough to be an asset pre-merge, but all guns will be trained on her come the merge and one is likely to eventually hit its target.

Prediction – Post-Merge

David Wright, 44, Television Writer

David was one of the biggest underdog stories in Survivor history, spending his opening days in Survivor: Millennials vs. Gen-X having a near-breakdown and skulking around looking for idols. But he turned into one of the best strategic players of the game, coming very close to winning the game until he was backstabbed by his closest ally. This time, I think he has the hardest road of any returning contestant. He’s seen as a threat for his strategic skill, but he isn’t enough of a physical asset to guarantee his safety early. I could see his second outing turning out very similarly to fellow mastermind Rob Cesternino.

Prediction – Early Boot

Reem Daly, 46, Sales

This brash Virginia mom is in a difficult category for Survivor contestants – the average forty-something mom with a big personality. While Lauren Rimmer broke out of that archetype and became a fan favorite, most of these contestants make for colorful early boots. Reem likes to talk about how she’s not going to hold back, and she gets points from me for comparing herself to first-season contestant Rudy Boesch. But unfortunately, I think she’s likely to become a target almost immediately.

Prediction – Early Boot

Dan “Wardog” DaSilva, 38, Law Student/Former Military

Survivor’s had a lot of success recently with big, bold, in-your-face tough guys who play the game aggressively. Tony Vlachos, Mike Holloway, Rodney Lavoie Jr, Ben Driebergen, and Domenick Abbate have been the game’s biggest new characters in recent years and “The Wardog” wants everyone to know he’s looking to be the next. But while I think he has potential as a player, I think he’s likely to make himself a bigger target than most of them. He’ll have to be really good at challenges or idol-hunting to make the endgame.

Prediction – Post-Merge

Rick Devens, 33, Morning News Anchor

If anyone screams “Fan Favorite” from this season, it’s Rick. The average-joe news anchor and superfan doesn’t look like an obvious survivor champ, but neither did Adam Klein or John Cochran. The former Eagle Scout is likely to be well-suited for survival skills in either game, and his knowledge of the game will help him with puzzles and idols. But I think he might just be a bit too nice to close the deal. I suspect a heartbreaker in the finale.

Prediction – Late Jury

Wendy Diaz, 25, Small Business Owner

A quirky young woman with an unusual hair color? Where have we seen that before? Neither Joey Van Pelt or Lyrsa Torres did very well, and I don’t think Wendy’s likely to break the hair curse. While she describes herself as a hybrid of Sandra and Tai, her comments about having an aggressive attitude to making sure everyone carries their weight makes me think she could become a target early. She has potential, and if she survives for a while she could go far, but…

Prediction – Pre-Merge

Lauren O’Connell, 21, Student

This Texas girl is starting the game in a very good position. She’s young enough to be underestimated, but her country charm is likely to make her fun to be around. A college soccer star, she’s going to be an asset in challenges and seems to have a highly competitive core that will push her hard in challenges. People aren’t going to know she’s a threat until it’s too late, and then she’s a serious contender to win it all.

Prediction – Finalist

Keith Sowell, 19, Pre-Med Student

How can you not like this guy? He’s a Marvel fanatic who wants to bring a Black Panther jacket to the island! Keith, like Rick and Gavin, doesn’t make me think he’s a natural-born Survivor player. He seems a bit naive – not surprising given his age – but he’s a highly driven and well-rounded guy who is likely to do well in challenges. I think he’ll find himself a strong alliance and go far – but the eventual winner isn’t going to be dumb enough to let him get to the end.

Prediction – Post-Merge

Chris Underwood, 25, District Sales Manager

Chris is a natural outdoorsman who seems made for the Isle of Extinction twist. He brags a lot about his physical skill – and then proceeds to say virtually nothing about his strategic game. I think he’ll be in the game a long time, but he’ll be spending most of it on a different island only to fall short of returning to Joe in the end. I get Chris Noble vibes off this guy.

Prediction – Merge Boot