Chris Murray

cmurray@rgj.com

Reno Gazette-Journal sports writer Chris Murray breaks down Nevada’s game against Colorado State.

Colorado State (21-9, 13-4 MW) at Nevada (24-6, 13-4)

When: Saturday, 5 p.m.

Where: Lawlor Events Center (capacity, 11,536)

TV/Radio: None/94.5 FM

Online: ESPN3

Betting line: Nevada favored by 6.5

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Three keys for Nevada to win

1. Be the tougher team: Colorado State likes to be the big bully on the block and physically dominant teams. The Rams are excellent rebounders – Nevada must win the battle on the glass – and live off second-chance points offensively. On defense, they like to crowd you and have done a better job of defending without fouling in recent games, which is a key for both teams given their limited depth. The Wolf Pack shoots a lot of threes, but it’s not a finesse team and has become more dogged on the glass in recent outings. Toughness matters in this one.

2. Don’t let Omogbo dominate: The Rams have two All-MW players in guard Gian Clavell and forward Emmanuel Omogbo. Nevada has had more success this year slowing down high-level guards than high-level bigs. It’s more vulnerable inside, so limiting the bouncy 6-8 Omogbo’s damage is key (he averaged 17 rebounds in two games against Nevada last season). CSU has another big in 6-11 Nico Carvacho. The Wolf Pack will be the smaller team, and its bigs – Cameron Oliver and Jordan Caroline – must play big.

3. Ride the emotion: Senior nights are emotionally charged and that can be a good thing or a bad thing. You can ride that emotion to do wonderful things – think of Deonte Burton’s near triple-double in a come-from-behind upset of UNLV in his final game at Lawlor in 2013 – or hijack you to the point you lose focus on the big goal: winning the game. Throw in the fact Nevada will have a sellout crowd and the fact it will be playing for a championship banner and Nevada must channel all of that emotion in the proper way.

Prediction

Chris Murray: Nevada 74, Colorado State 69. Home-court advantage in this matchup is key. Nevada is 0-3 at Colorado State since moving to the Mountain West in 2012 and has lost those games by an average of 25.3 points. Playing this one at Lawlor Events Center is a huge advantage, especially in a game that should be physical (a home whistle could be the difference between a win and a loss). Nevada is the markedly better offensive team, although Colorado State has an excellent defense that will challenge the MW’s top offensive unit. The Wolf Pack’s key on defense is limiting second-chance points. Nevada is the best defensive rebounding team in the MW; Colorado State is the best offensive rebounding team. Something has to give there. It’d be a surprise if this game doesn’t coming down to the final few possessions, but I’ll take Nevada to come out on top given its overall strength on offense. The Wolf Pack simply has too many offensive weapons to let a game, and opportunity, like this slip away without capitalizing. Season record: 24-6