Dear Reader:

Global Trends 203 0: Al ternative Worlds

is the ﬁfth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. Finally, as our appreciation of the diversity a nd complexity of various factors has grown, we have increased our attention to scenarios or a lternative worlds we might face. We are at a critical juncture in human histor y, which could lead to widely contrasting futures. It is our contention that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. Our effort is to encourage decisionmakers—whether in government or outside— to think and plan for the long term s o that negative futures do not occur a nd positive ones have a better chance of unfolding. I would like to point out several innovations in

Global Trends 2030.

This volume starts with a look back at the four previous Global Trends report s. We w ere buoyed by the overall positive review i n the study we commissioned, but cognizant too of t he scope for needed changes, which we have tried to incorporate in this volume. Our aim has been to make this effort as collaborative as possible, believing that a diversity of perspectives enriches the work. We have reached out to experts far beyond Washington, D.C. W e have held numerous meetings, many in universities, in Indiana, Texas, California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Colorado, Tennessee, New York, and New Jersey. We also sponsored a public blog w hich featured blog posts and co mments by experts on key themes discussed in

Global Trends 2030.

The blog had over 140 posts and over 200 comments. As of mid-Oc tober, it had 71 ,000 h its and had been viewed by readers in 167 different countries. T o ensure that the blog posts can continue to be consulted, we are linking them to the web and e-book versions of the ﬁnal published report. We expanded our engagemen t overseas by holding meetings o n the initial draf t in close to 20 countries. Many times this was at the invitation of governments, businesses, universities, or think tanks. One beneﬁcial outcome of the NIC’s quadrennial efforts has been the growing interest elsewhere in global trends, including elaboration by others on thei r own works, which we encourage. Because of the widespread interest in how

Global Trends 2030

is seen elsewhere, we have detailed the reactions of our international experts to the initial draft in a special box following the introduction.

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