California primary up for grabs as Clinton’s lead shrinks

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, speaks at Carnegie Mellon University on a campaign stop, Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Pittsburgh.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, speaks at Carnegie Mellon University on a campaign stop, Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Pittsburgh. Photo: Keith Srakocic, AP Photo: Keith Srakocic, AP Image 1 of / 49 Caption Close California primary up for grabs as Clinton’s lead shrinks 1 / 49 Back to Gallery

The California Democratic primary is up for grabs, as Hillary Clinton has watched her onetime 63-point lead in the polls shrink to six points over Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to a Field Poll released Friday.

Clinton leads Sanders 47 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in the June 7 primary, with 12 percent undecided. Voters who do not state a party preference are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary, which is good news for Sanders, as unaffiliated voters in other states have been supportive. In California, nonpartisans support Sanders 49 percent to 39 percent for Clinton.

Photo: John Blanchard / The Chronicle Field poll - Democratic nominee candidates

The survey was brimming with red flags for Clinton, who has lost six of the last seven Democratic primary and caucus contests and has raised less money than Sanders the past three months. While Clinton has a large lead in the number of delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination, Sanders has enough money to continue running a robust campaign through the California primary.

Not only has Clinton’s lead shrunk dramatically among voters, her personal image is viewed unfavorably by a majority of all voters in deep-blue California. According to Field, 47 percent of registered California voters view Clinton positively, 48 percent negatively. Among those who do not state a party preference, 50 percent view her negatively.

Sanders seen favorably

Meanwhile, 55 percent of all California voters view Sanders favorably, 35 percent unfavorably. Among those without a party preference, 63 percent view the Vermont senator favorably.

Photo: John Blanchard / The Chronicle Field poll - Democratic nominee candidates

The opinion of nonpartisan voters “is interesting because it tells you which way the wind is blowing, devoid of partisan politics,” said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. “Contrast (Clinton’s favorability rating) with Sanders, who is off the charts.”

It is unusual for a high-profile Democrat, particularly one who has raised millions of dollars in the state like Clinton has, to have an unfavorable image rating in left-leaning California, where there are no statewide elected Republicans, the Legislature is firmly in Democratic control and her husband won the state in the general presidential election twice. Plus, Clinton won the 2008 California Democratic primary over then-Sen. Barack Obama by nine points.

Clinton’s big haul in state

Plus, Clinton has raised nearly $24 million in California through February, according to InsideGov.com — more than any other candidate.

For perspective, 49 percent of registered voters saw former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in a negative light in May 2001 — two years before he was recalled — while 44 percent had a positive view of him. Six months before the recall, 67 percent of all California likely voters had a negative impression of Davis, according to Field polls taken at the time.

Friday’s Field Poll contained other ominous signs for Clinton:

Latino voters are leaving Clinton: In October, 52 percent of Latino voters supported Clinton, compared with 22 percent for Sanders. Now that margin has shrunk to 49 percent to 42 percent. The difference cuts along generational lines. Latinos younger than 40 overwhelmingly back Sanders, while those over 40 are in Clinton’s camp.

“Something unusual is going on in the Latino community,” DiCamillo said. “You’re seeing a reappraisal of Clinton vis-a-vis Sanders. Now it is up for grabs.”

Clinton’s support isn’t growing: Much like a well-known incumbent, Clinton’s 47 percent support level has been virtually unchanged in Field’s readings since October, while Sanders’ has increased six points over that time.

“It’s not that she’s reached a ceiling,” DiCamillo said, pointing out that 12 percent of the respondents were still undecided. “They will eventually come home somewhere. It’s about making the final sale now.”

It’s not about the money: While Sanders has centered his candidacy on income disparity, Clinton holds a slight lead (46 percent to 45 percent) among voters who make less than $60,000 and those who earn between $60,000 and $100,000 (46 percent to 45 percent). She holds a wide lead (51 percent to 39 percent) among those pulling down more than $100,000.

Southern California likes Clinton better, but elsewhere? More than half (51 percent) of Los Angeles Democratic primary voters prefer Clinton, but the race is a dead heat in Northern California (49 percent to 46 percent in Clinton’s favor), which Field defines as turf stretching from the Oregon border south through Monterey County. Clinton dominates in the Central Valley.

Younger voters are still feeling the Bern: Field found that 77 percent of voters younger than 30 preferred the Vermont senator, 56 percent of those 31 to 39 years old. Clinton dominated among those 40 and over. This pattern has been consistent nationwide.

Men are for Bernie, women are for Hillary. Sort of: While men overall preferred Sanders (48 to 40 percent) and women backed Clinton (53 to 36 percent), those numbers varied strongly by age group. Women under 40 supported Sanders, while a majority of men over 40 were in Clinton’s camp.

The results were based on a survey of 1,400 registered California voters, including 584 who are considered likely to vote in the June 7 presidential primary. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer. Email: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli