The McHart Trophy race: MacKinnon vs. McDavid What was shaping up to be the most wide-open Hart Trophy race in decades has seemingly morphed into a two-man battle to the finish, TSN Senior Hockey Reporter Frank Seravalli writes.

Frank Seravalli TSN Senior Hockey Reporter Follow|Archive

What was shaping up to be the most wide-open Hart Trophy race in decades has seemingly morphed into a two-man battle to the finish: Nathan MacKinnon versus Connor McDavid.

Call it the McHart Trophy race.

Granted, some voters will dismiss McDavid’s candidacy out of hand since his Oilers have long been out of the Stanley Cup playoff chase. That would seem to be punishing McDavid through no fault of his own – the Oilers got in last year and his season is better this year.

On Jan. 12, McDavid was 12 points back on Nikita Kucherov in the scoring race. He has made up 16 points during that span to pass Kucherov, who didn’t even slow down. Kucherov has 29 points in his last 20 games. McDavid has 24 goals in his last 27 games after only scoring 30 all of last year.

McDavid is now four clear of Kucherov and seven points ahead of Evgeni Malkin and Nathan MacKinnon as he tries to become the first player to pace the NHL in points in back-to-back years since Jaromir Jagr did it from 1998 through 2001

McDavid is seeking to become the NHL’s first player to finish with more than one even-strength point per game in a full season since Henrik Sedin did it in 2009-10 with 83 even-strength points in 82 games played.

But the list of Hart candidates is long. Malkin is only two goals shy of Alex Ovechkin in the race to 50. Anze Kopitar has 31 more points than his next closest Kings teammate. Brad Marchand scored his fifth overtime winner on Sunday and is second only to MacKinnon in points per game (1.33). Blake Wheeler is tied for the league lead in assists (65) and has a sizable points lead on his Jets teammates.

But MacKinnon and McDavid are neck and neck at the top of the league in key statistical categories, despite the fact MacKinnon has played nine fewer games:

THE MCHART BREAKDOWN Connor McDavid Nathan MacKinnon Points Per Game 1.30 (T-3rd) 1.37 (1st) Even Strength Points 79 (1st) 62 (2nd) Percentage Of Team Goals 45.6% (1st) 41.8% (2nd) Even Strength Points Per Game 1.03 (1st) 0.92 (3rd)

In the end, the winner of the award will likely hinge on how the voting block weighs playoff position. No player has won the Hart from a non-playoff team since Mario Lemieux did it in 1987-88.

MacKinnon would also be in rare territory if he captures the Hart. Since 1967, only two players have won the Hart Trophy playing fewer than 75 games in a season: Lemieux with 70 games played in 1995-96 because of a back injury and Wayne Gretzky when he played 74 games in 1983-84. MacKinnon missed eight games due to injury (Feb. 1-16) and the maximum he can play this season is 74.

The percentage of goals MacKinnon and McDavid factored in on is courtesy of Randy Robles at Elias Sports Bureau and only includes goals that were scored in the games in which the player appeared: