Kirkpatrick looks to unseat McCain in 2016 U.S. Senate race

Ann Kirkpatrick, a three-term U.S. representative from Flagstaff, announced Tuesday she will seek the 2016 Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, giving veteran Republican John McCain a serious general-election challenger if he survives the GOP primary.

Kirkpatrick, 65, aims to become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona since former Sen. Dennis DeConcini won his third term in 1988. DeConcini also was the last senator from outside of Maricopa County, the central battlefield in any statewide Arizona race.

Though Kirkpatrick had been mentioned as a possible Democratic Senate prospect, the timing of her official announcement, made early Tuesday via a campaign video, came as a surprise to Democrats and Republicans alike. However, many Arizona Democrats were quick to enthusiastically embrace her candidacy even though Kirkpatrick's bid means they will lose her as an incumbent in a competitive U.S. House district.

EDITORIAL: Kirkpatrick offers something we need: a choice

The influential nonpartisan newsletter Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, which handicaps U.S. House and U.S. Senate races, immediately adjusted its ratings of Arizona's Senate race from "Republican Favored" to "Lean Republican," a more competitive designation.

"Kirkpatrick gives Democrats a credible contender, someone that they could invest in if McCain shows signs of weakness," said Nathan Gonzales, a political analyst who edits and publishes the report. "There is still a lot of game left to be played — she might not be the only Democrat, and we'll see if McCain gets another primary challenge — but I don't think Republicans can dismiss the race."

McCain, 78, announced in April that he is running for a sixth U.S. Senate term. He was the 2008 GOP presidential nominee and is chairman of the high-profile Senate Armed Services Committee.

"If there's an opportunity to defeat him — and I'm not certain there is, but everybody is vulnerable in today's political world — she's a very good candidate," said DeConcini, who served with McCain for part of his 1977 to 1995 tenure in the Senate. "She knows how to campaign, and she's proven herself."

Kirkpatrick, who represents a sprawling district that has sent Democrats and Republicans to Washington in recent years, was first elected to Congress in 2008. She served one term before she was ousted by U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar, a Republican, in 2010. She immediately ran again and won in 2012, with Gosar running and winning in a different district.

Kirkpatrick last year won the most expensive congressional race in the state, holding onto the 1st District seat despite a Republican wave nationally. Her decision to run for U.S. Senate had Democrats and Republicans scrambling to position themselves to run for the U.S. House seat she is vacating.

Kirkpatrick's announcement video, sent to her campaign supporters, emphasized her family roots in Arizona and her focus on creating jobs. It also let her show off her Western boots.

In the video, Kirkpatrick said she is not "naive" about what she faces in challenging McCain. "I know that Washington insiders are already trying to dig up dirt," Kirkpatrick said. "But having grown up here, having a little mud on my boots is part of life."

Kirkpatrick reiterated her video's themes in a telephone interview with The Arizona Republic from Flagstaff.

"I've lived my whole life in Arizona, and it's clear to me that our state is changing," she said. "Arizonans are ready for a choice in the next election. I've fought for Arizona and delivered results. So I'm ready to run on my record."

Kirkpatrick elaborated that her vision for the state includes "a strong, diverse, stable economy."

"For me, it's all about jobs, and I want to work on that statewide," she said.

When asked about the surprise timing of her announcement, Kirkpatrick added: "I've got a great team, and we were able to keep our cards close and roll it out like we had planned."

McCain could not be reached for comment Tuesday because he was traveling on a congressional delegation trip to Vietnam and Singapore.

"Senator McCain welcomes Congresswoman Kirkpatrick to the race, and looks forward to running a vigorous campaign no matter who the Democratic nominee is," McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said in an e-mailed statement to The Republic.

National Republicans immediately blasted Kirkpatrick's candidacy.

"Ann Kirkpatrick has been part of the problem in Washington, and Arizonans are paying the price," said Andrea Bozek, the National Republican Senatorial Committee's communications director. "She doesn't believe we should 'second guess' President (Barack) Obama, which is why she supported 'Obamacare,' his trillion-dollar stimulus that created jobs in China and cuts to Medicare. There is no question Ann Kirkpatrick has made life worse for Arizona families."

Justin Barasky, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's communications director, likewise used the opportunity to rip McCain.

"Since 2008, John McCain has supported plans to gut Medicare and Social Security, repeatedly voted to shut down the government, and been the bitter, angry face of Washington's partisan dysfunction," Barasky said. "If John McCain wins the Arizona GOP nomination, Democrats are committed to running a strong campaign against him and we're excited about Ann Kirkpatrick's announcement."

A recent poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling indicated a potentially close race, with McCain leading Kirkpatrick 42 percent to 36 percent, and 23 percent not sure whom to support. The automated phone and Internet poll of 600 Arizona voters was conducted May 1-3. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. McCain was similarly close with other potential Democratic rivals.

"Those numbers may be misleadingly close, though — the undecideds in each of those (McCain vs. Democrats) match-ups are strongly Republican-leaning," PPP said in its analysis of the poll.

As of March 31, Kirkpatrick's campaign had $296,806 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission records. McCain reported having $3.7 million.

"It depends on how much money she can raise, in my opinion, because McCain will have all the money in the world," DeConcini said.

Kirkpatrick's announcement comes as Arizona political circles are closely watching for a U.S. Supreme Court decision on a case challenging the constitutionality of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. The suit, brought by the GOP-controlled state Legislature, could force a redrawing of Arizona's nine congressional districts and would likely favor GOP candidates.

Although McCain has long been at odds with the more conservative elements of the Arizona Republican Party, no serious Republican primary challenger has emerged yet. State Sen. Kelli Ward of Lake Havasu City has taken the most consequential step, forming an exploratory committee to test the waters. National "tea party"-aligned conservatives have been trying to persuade U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon to take on McCain, who in 2010 demolished former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth in his primary.

Kirkpatrick joins little-known Richard Sherzan of Mesa in the Democratic Senate primary race. Sherzan, who served in the Iowa Legislature before moving to Arizona, formally announced his candidacy in December but has yet to file with the FEC. An unknown Republican, Alexander Meluskey, has filed paperwork, as has an independent named John Lewis Mealer.

Republic reporter Rebekah L. Sanders contributed to this article.