Bernie Sanders facing 'uphill battle' in Iowa

Emilie Stigliani | Burlington (Vt.) Free Press

Corrections & Clarifications: An earlier version of this story misidentified Iowa's nickname. Iowa is considered the Hawkeye State.

DAVENPORT, Iowa — Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., began his first visit to Iowa since announcing his run in the Democratic presidential primary with a standing-room-only crowd in the eastern city of Davenport.

The Thursday night turnout was more than even the organizers expected.

Kevin Perkins, a Davenport resident and planner of the event, said that the auditorium at St. Ambrose University had been set up to seat 300 people. As people poured in, Perkins and other organizers opened up an adjacent room. Perkins estimated that 750 people showed up in total.

Sanders held the interest of the crowd. Two hours into the event (after 10 p.m. ET), he was still answering questions from a long line of attendees who came to ask about jobs, the economy and education.

Winning over the voters in the Hawkeye State is an important endeavor for any serious presidential contender. Voters here swing between electing Republican and Democratic candidates (they voted for then-President George W. Bush in 2004, but for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012), and they are first in the nation to weigh in on the presidential nominating process. Residents hold a caucus Feb. 1. New Hampshire voters follow with a Feb. 9 primary.

The latest Quinnipiac University Poll has Sanders earning 15% of the vote among likely Iowa Democratic caucus participants. The same poll, released May 7, shows Hillary Clinton with a healthy lead of 60% of the vote.

Bill Witt, a former Iowa representative, said Sanders needs to "double down" on his grassroots organizing to have success in the state. He noted that Clinton is piggybacking on many Obama supporters.

"He's going to have a strong uphill battle here," Witt said.

Witt has yet to decide what candidate he will support, but said there is a good chance he will back Sanders.

Iowa State Sen. Jeff Danielson, D-Cedar Falls, who is an ambassador of the Iowa caucus process, said that Iowans are in the enviable position getting to influence the rest of the primary.

"Realistically, there are three tickets out of Iowa," Danielson said. "You need to be No. 1, 2 or 3 to go on in the primary." He noted, however, that this election may prove an anomaly because of the small candidate pool.

Iowa took center stage in another Vermonter's unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. After building momentum in the polls during the summer of 2003, former governor Howard Dean lost the Iowa caucus to Sen. John Kerry and gained notoriety for a pull-yourself-up-by-the-bootstraps speech to his supporters.

While Danielson has already decided to support Hillary Clinton, he said that he welcomes Sanders to the race.

"I don't think Bernie Sanders needs to win Iowa to have an impact on where our country is going," Danielson said. He said that a strong showing in Iowa would demonstrate how important issues of economic equality and education are to the country.

Sanders is no stranger to the Midwest. The 73-year-old senator graduated from the University of Chicago (geographic reminder: Illinois borders Iowa's eastern edge). He also visited Iowa in February while considering his presidential bid. On that trip, he packed nine events into three days, including town meetings, sit-downs with labor union organizers and an independent bookstore reading of The Speech (which he authored). Most of these events were held near or in the population hubs of Iowa City, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Ames.

This time around, Sander's tour is slightly less ambitious. He has scheduled five events between Thursday and Saturday. While he will revisit Iowa City, he will also make stops in smaller towns and outposts, including Kensett (population 266, according to the U.S. Census Bureau).

Iowa Sens. Danielson and Matt McCoy, D-Des Moines, agree that the campaign style that Iowa voters like will play to Sanders' strengths — grassroots, with small groups and one-on-one.

"I think he's going to find that the Iowa model for how he's campaigned in the past is very much his style," McCoy said.

While McCoy said that he likes Sanders, he will be caucusing for Clinton because he believes she can win the general election.

Danielson said that there is no better place to launch a grassroots campaign than Iowa.

"You've gotta do retail," Danielson said. He described retail politics as meeting people in their homes and businesses as opposed to wholesale, which entails staged events.

Danielson also noted that campaigning with social media is necessary but not sufficient to win over Iowa voters. Much has been made in recent weeks of Sanders popularity on social media websites Reddit and Facebook.

When asked if Clinton was doing retail, Danielson responded, "Now she is. I was one of her biggest critics when I heard that she wouldn't be here until the fall. In the last months, she's come. If that was a criticism, it's not there anymore."

As a proponent of the caucus process, Danielson said he would welcome a visit from Sanders to his district.

Sanders' three-day tour, though, skips Iowa's Cedar Valley.