Arguments against a war in Iraq often revolve around the belief that an American invasion would destabilize the Middle East. According to this critique, the region is a powder keg of instability that a war, with all its inevitable unintended consequences, could well ignite. The Arab street would rise, radical Islamist recruiters would benefit from yet another grievance and Iraq's fractious citizens -- Arab Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds -- would possibly crack their country apart. Those cracks would spread throughout the region.

But a war with Iraq might not shake up the Middle East much at all. Most regimes in the area are too stable, strong and clever. For example, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt appears to be vastly more adept than was Mohammed Reza Pahlevi, the shah of Iran. The shah allowed the clerical establishment considerable independence -- and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini used the mosques and religious schools to build his network of revolutionary mullahs. Mr. Mubarak, by contrast, has thoroughly co-opted his religious hierarchy. The Egyptian people may riot over bread subsidies. They hit the streets in great numbers to mourn the passing of a beloved singer. They have not once set Egypt ablaze over the travails of the Palestinians or the bellicose actions of the United States. And Egypt, with its densely urban, youthful and homogeneous population, is perhaps the most likely state in the Middle East to succumb to a popular dissatisfaction rising from the streets.

Fears of instability in Saudi Arabia also seem misplaced. The most abused people of the country -- the Shiites of the oil-rich Eastern Province, whom the regime's hard-core Sunni clerics refer to as ''dogs'' -- aren't going to riot on behalf of Saddam Hussein, who has brutally oppressed his own Shiite majority. And Saddam Hussein has never been a beloved figure in Saudi Arabia, even among Saudis who loathe the United States.

Saudi militancy is mainly financial and expressed through proxies. The Saudis held a telethon to support Palestinian militants. They spend millions of dollars to support organizations that spread hatred of the United States and Israel. Yet they have not once rioted in significant numbers for the Palestinians or against the royal family's American protectors. This is as true for the fundamentalist heartland in the Najd region as it is for the more cosmopolitan Hijaz. Remember, Osama bin Laden stands out among both rich and poor because he is a Saudi who actually did something himself.