The polls have narrowed a bit in recent days but the bookies still think the Tories are nailed on to secure the majority they crave.

The commonly available best price of 4/9 on that outcome represents an implied probability of 69 per cent. You can easily find 2-1 on a hung parliament which represents grim news for the opposition parties if the oddsmakers have this one right.

It’s worth remembering, however, that a general election is made up of 650 constituencies. The outcome of some of them could have an outsized impact nationally.

One of the seats is Uxbridge & South Ruislip where the sitting MP is none other than Alexander Boris de Pfeffell Johnson. You might know him better by the first of his two middle names and as Britain’s current prime minister.

It’s a safe bet that he will hold his seat at 1/7. But he's facing an energetic local campaign to oust him in favour of challenger Ali Milani, a former president of Brunel University’s student union.

General election: On the campaign trail Show all 114 1 /114 General election: On the campaign trail General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson drives a Union flag-themed JCB, with the words "Get Brexit Done" inside the digger bucket, through a fake wall emblazoned with the word "GRIDLOCK", during a general election campaign event at JCB construction company in Uttoxeter, Staffordshire AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail A sculpture of an owl is bedecked with an EU beret as Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson gestures during an interview at a general election campaign event in Bath AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson (C) talks during a question and answer session on a general election campaign visit to Ferguson's Transport in the town of Washington, west of Sunderland AFP/Getty General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson tries to save a shot during a warm up before a girls football match while on the campaign trail in Cheadle Hulme, northwest England POOL/AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn makes cup of coffee as he campaigns in Barry, south Wales AFP General election: On the campaign trail Nicola Sturgeon poses as she launches the SNP campaign bus tour, at Queensferry Crossing in Edinburgh, Scotland AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson reacts as he changes a wheel of a Formula One car during a Conservative Party general election campaign visit to Red Bull Racing in Milton Keynes POOL/AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits a Christmas market in Salisbury REUTERS General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democrat Leader Jo Swinson on the election campaign bus on route to Chelmsford PA General election: On the campaign trail Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn talking to a university worker outside Birkbeck/SOAS University of London, at the announcement of his parties of the plan for the extension of workers' rights PA General election: On the campaign trail Nicola Sturgeon plays a game with string during a visit to Perth and District YMCA Getty Images General election: On the campaign trail Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage picks up a copy of The Brexiteer during a visit to JPI Printers in Dinnington PA General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson, centre, talks to veteran James Gammer as he visits a veterans centre AP General election: On the campaign trail SNP supporters meet First Minister Nicola Sturgeon following her address during a St Andrews day election speech Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn has a photo taken outside Birkbeck/SOAS University PA General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson during a visit to the Cardiff United Synagogue PA General election: On the campaign trail Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage reacts as he attends an election debate ITV/Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn wears a jacked displaying Labour's slogan 'For the many, not the few' EPA General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson on The Andrew Marr Show Getty General election: On the campaign trail Nicola Sturgeon plays with local children during a visit to the Jelly Tots & Cookies Play Cafe in Uddingston, South Lanarkshire PA General election: On the campaign trail Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn eats some chips in Whitby, northern England AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson and Conservative MP George Eustice, left, tour 'Rodda's Clotted Cream' whilst campaigning in Cornwall Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson during a visit to Dunkertons Cider Company, an organic and plastic free brewery in Cheltenham PA General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn holds up unreacted documents with NHS staff. Mr Corbyn released uncensored official documents which he says provides confirmation that the NHS is on the table in trade talks with the USA EPA General election: On the campaign trail Nigel Farage meets locals in Barnsley market PA General election: On the campaign trail Nicola Sturgeon launches the SNP's general election manifesto Getty General election: On the campaign trail Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn addresses the audience during the launch of Labour's environmental policy in Southampton Getty General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson tries an apple as he visits Healey's Cornish Cyder Farm in Callestick AP General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson helps make a chicken tikka masala during a visit to the Ashoka restaurant in Bearsden, Glasgow PA General election: On the campaign trail Nigel Farage playing golf on a range at One Stop Golf in Hull PA General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn addresses the audience during a climate emergency rally in Falmouth Getty General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson meets supporters during a visit to Dunkertons Cider Company PA General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson visits Chulmleigh College AP General election: On the campaign trail Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn as he appearing on the BBC political programme The Andrew Neil Show. The opposition leader defended his handling of anti-Semitism allegations after Britain's most senior rabbi suggested the issue was a "new poison" within the party that had been "sanctioned from the very top". In an unprecedented intervention ahead of next month's election, Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis suggested Corbyn was "unfit for high office" due to his perceived failure to clamp down on the problem within the party BBC/AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson alongside Julian Dunkerton, whose father founded and ran Dunkertons Organic Cider, during a visit to the company's organic and plastic free brewery in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, whilst campaigning for the General Election. PA Photo. Picture date: Tuesday November 26, 2019. See PA story POLITICS Election. Photo credit should read: Aaron Chown/PA Wire Aaron Chown PA General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson launches the Conservative Party Scottish Manifesto in North Queensferry Getty General election: On the campaign trail Britain's Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn poses with WASPI (Women Against State Pension Inequality) supporters after he outlined Labour's plans to repay the "historical debt of honour" owed to women born in the 1950's AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson alongside the Lib Dem's candidate for Truro and Falmouth, Ruth Gripper, and founder of Finisterre, Tom Kay, during a tour of the British surfing brand, which creates sustainable surfing gear, in St Agnes, Cornwall PA General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson poses with sheep as he visits the Royal Welsh Showground, in Llanelwedd PA General election: On the campaign trail A coalition of NHS (National Health Service) campaigners led by "Keep Our NHS Public" and "We Own It", pose for photographs with masks of US President Donal Trump, right, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson carving up the NHS with a giant knife and fork, as they take part in a demonstration on Parliament Square. The campaigners are calling for the NHS to be taken "off the table" in a trade deal with the US by ending privatisation in the health service and restoring it to a wholly publicly owned and provided service AP General election: On the campaign trail Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage visits Plymouth Fisheries at Sutton Harbour Getty General election: On the campaign trail SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon gives her party's candidate for North East Fife Stephen Gethins a haircut, during a visit to Craig Boyd Hairdressing in Leven PA General election: On the campaign trail Vans belonging to The Community United against Labour Party anti-Semitism group, Culpa, parked next to a police car ahead of the Labour Race and Faith Manifesto launch Getty General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson prepares to serve food at the Royal Welsh Showground PA General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn tries his hand at bricklaying during a visit to the West Nottinghamshire College Construction Centre, in Ashfield PA General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson during a visit to the London design museum to discuss the party's tech policy PA General election: On the campaign trail Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage visits Seaham Getty General election: On the campaign trail Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives for the Conservative party's manifesto launch in Telford Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn meets supporters during a visit to Thurrock in Essex PA General election: On the campaign trail Protesters wait for the arrival of Prime Minister Boris Johnson ahead of the launch of his party's manifesto PA General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson gestures from atop a crane during a visit to an eco home building site in Sheffield AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn meets a supporter on a train on his return from a visit to Sheffield PA General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a visit to Bassetlaw District General Hospital in Worksop, Nottinghamshire PA General election: On the campaign trail Nigel Farage campaigns in Hartlepool Getty Images General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn outside an Amazon depot in Sheffield, to announce plans for a workers' rights revolution and to ensure big businesses pay their fair share of taxes PA General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, during their successive appearances on BBC Question Time Leaders' Special at the Octagon in Sheffield PA General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democratic Party leader Jo Swinson visits a primary school in Cambridge EPA General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson lays a brick during a visit to the Barratt Homes Getty General election: On the campaign trail Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn attends the launch of the party's election manifesto at Birmingham City University Getty General election: On the campaign trail Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage holds his party policy document during the party's policy launch in Westminster PA General election: On the campaign trail SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon joined Dundee East candidate Stewart Hosie to made a keynote speech at The Quay Getty General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a part of an electrical appliance during a General Election campaign trail stop at Ebac in Newton Aycliffe AP General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn poses during a visit to The Oatcake Boat on the Trent & Mersey Canal, Stoke Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson and Willie Rennie Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats gesture, during a visit to Glasgow Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a visit to Jimmy Egan's Boxing Academy at Wythenshawe, while on the campaign trail ahead of the General Election. PA Photo. Picture date: Tuesday November 19, 2019. See PA story POLITICS Election. Photo credit should read: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire Stefan Rousseau PA General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson (left) during a visit to the Gurdwara Singh Sabha Temple in Glasgow PA General election: On the campaign trail Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn meets Colin and his mother after a speech at the University of Lancaster Getty Images General election: On the campaign trail Britain's Green Party co-leaders Jonathan Bartley, Sian Berry, and deputy leader Amelia Womack, wave during the launch of the party manifesto at the Observatory at London Wetland Centre Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Scottish Nationalist Party leader Nicola Sturgeon meets voters and activists at Cafe Roma in Clarkston, Glasgow AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Protestors participate in an anti-Boris Johnson rally in his constituency Uxbridge, west London AFP via Getty Images General election: On the campaign trail Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage looks out from a window on the Kestrel crabbing boat in Grimsby fish dock PA General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a tug boat in the port of Bristol PA General election: On the campaign trail Green Party Co-Leader Sian Berry has a selfie taken with a supporter at the Observatory, London Wetlands Centre PA General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson helps chef Leonardo Mastofilippo to make pizza during a campaign visit to cafe Amisha in South Bermonsey EPA General election: On the campaign trail Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn with WASPI (Women Against State Pension Inequality) ladies during a visit to Birkenshaw Sports Barn in Uddingston EPA General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson at the unveiling of the Conservative Party battlebus in Middleton, Greater Manchester PA General election: On the campaign trail Nicola Sturgeon sits alongside Cycling Without Age user Cyril Corcoran (centre), aged 78, in an electric tricycle during a visit to Hawick, in the Scottish Borders PA General election: On the campaign trail Nigel Farage holds a fish during a stop at the Grimsby Seafood Village PA General election: On the campaign trail Liberal Democrats leader Jo Swinson in the boxing ring at Total Boxer, a specialised boxing gym which offers training to young people as a means of keeping them away from violence, in Crouch End, London PA General election: On the campaign trail Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson reacts as he participates in a school art lesson, making a clay figure at George Spencer Academy, west of Nottingham AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn during a visit to the Heart of Scotstoun Community Centre in Glasgow PA General election: On the campaign trail Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon visits the Cafe Gelato in Rutherglen, Glasgow EPA General election: On the campaign trail The Green Party launch in Bristol PA General election: On the campaign trail Farage enjoys some chips at the start of a nationwide tour for the 2019 general election, in Whitehaven AFP/Getty General election: On the campaign trail Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn unveils the Labour battle bus in Liverpool PA General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson reacts as he talks with workers whilst weighing packaged tea bags at the Tetley Tea Factory in Stockton-on-Tees AFP/Getty General election: On the campaign trail Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage on the campaign trail in Whitehaven, where he was confronted by Karl Connor PA General election: On the campaign trail Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson speaks to volunteer Rosie Squires in the Stainforth 4 All charity shop during a visit to Stainforth in South Yorkshire to meet people affected by flooding PA General election: On the campaign trail Nicola Sturgeon poses with candidates during the SNP general election campaign launch in Edinburgh Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn with Laura McAlpine, the party's candidate for Harlow PA General election: On the campaign trail Anti-Boris Johnson protesters demonstrate outside the hall where the Conservative Party were launching their campaign in Birmingham EPA General election: On the campaign trail Green Party Co-Leader Sian Berry (left), Deputy Leader and Parliamentary Candidate for Newport West Amelia Womack (right), and Bristol West Candidate Carla Denyer (centre) at the launch of the party's general election manifesto in Bristol PA General election: On the campaign trail The PM tastes whisky during a visit to Diageo's Roseisle Distillery near Elgin, Scotland Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Nigel Farage poses with boxer Dereck Chisora during a visit to a boxing gym in Ilford Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson visits a science class at Hinchley Wood School near Esher Reuters General election: On the campaign trail First Minister Nicola Sturgeon holds a guitar as she visits Dalkeith Community Hub Getty General election: On the campaign trail A man heckles as Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech at the Senior Citizens Hall in Macclesfield Getty General election: On the campaign trail Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn visits residents affected by flooding in Conisbrough Reuters General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson gestures as he helps quality control staff during a visit to the Tayto Castle crisp factory in County Armagh, Northern Ireland AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail The Lib Dem leader eats a marshmallow during a visit to Free Rangers Nursery in Midsomer Norton, Somerset PA General election: On the campaign trail Nigel Farage visits a butcher's shop in Sutton-in-Ashfield Reuters General election: On the campaign trail SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon visits Blosson Tree children's nursery AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn laughs during a visit to the Scrap Creative Reuse Arts Project, Sunny Bank Mills Getty General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson hold Rosie the rabbit during a visit to a primary school while on the campaign trail in Taunton AFP via Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson playing with children at the Battersea Arts Centre in Lavender Hill PA General election: On the campaign trail Farage addresses supporters at the Washington Central Hotel in Workington PA General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn poses with Labour activists as they canvas in Govan, Glasgow PA General election: On the campaign trail Nicola Sturgeon during a visit to The Shed, a Climate Challenge community project at North Edinburgh Arts PA General election: On the campaign trail Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets six month old Willow Rose Anderson, at the Lych Gate Tavern in Wolverhampton PA General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson holds up a sack of barley during a visit to Crafty Maltsters Scotland Getty General election: On the campaign trail Jeremy Corbyn tries a scone in Bentley, Doncaster PA General election: On the campaign trail Nigel Farage takes a mouthful of homemade cheesecake during a stop at the Grimsby Seafood Village PA General election: On the campaign trail Boris Johnson hauling a consignment of frozen chocolate gateaux, during a visit to Iceland Foods HQ in Deeside PA General election: On the campaign trail Jo Swinson puts on a high visibility jacket during a visit to Sigma Pharmaceuticals, a family run pharmaceutical wholesaler in Watford AFP via Getty

Milani was given an opening quote of 5-1 with Paddy Power but has been backed into 7-2. Before writing this piece I asked the bookie for the five biggest moves in its constituency markets. This was one of them.

Milani was born in Iran and is a practicing Muslim. As such, Johnson - accused of Islamophobia on numerous occasions - being turfed out of parliament by this new contender is just too precious. If I didn’t have a strict rule of never betting on markets in which I have a rooting interest for fear of jinxing the outcome, I’d be inclined to have a small wager for fun.

The bookie has now priced up all 650 constituency markets and it’s fair to say that some of them are about as interesting as spending a weekend filling in government forms.

Former junior minister Helen Grant would need the mother of all earthquakes to push her out of Maidstone & The Weald, for example. Her odds of holding the seat for the Tories stand at 1-200. A gentle bike ride will get her over the line.

Some much bigger names face a much tougher slog. Take Johnson’s Brexiteer BFF Dominic Raab, the current foreign secretary who’s hoping to retain the Remain stronghold of Esher & Walton, where he’s been enduring a decidedly rough ride at hustings events.

The Harry Dunn affair is dogging Raab’s campaign. And so it should, given his brutally callous attempt to justify the Foreign Office seeking costs from the late motorcyclist’s family. They are asking for a judicial review of the decision to grant diplomatic immunity to the American woman who mowed him down.

Raab is still odds on to retain a seat in true blue Surrey where they’d usually talk about weighing rather than counting Tory votes. But the Lib Dems are pushing hard and are rated a 5/2 chance to provide the election’s “Portillo moment”.

As for the four other biggest betting movers, the Liberal Democrats are making all the running in Richmond Park, where Sarah Olney is hoping to regain a seat she won in a previous by-election from Johnson’s fellow old Etonian, Zac Goldsmith. Olney’s odds have shortened from 2/5 to 1/4.

That mightn’t look like a big move, but it is. It takes a lot of money to move the needle at such short prices. The scale of the move becomes much clearer if you convert the prices into percentages. Odds of 2/5 represent an implied probability of 71.43 per cent. At 1/4 it’s 80 per cent, which is very encouraging for Olney if the market speaks truthfully.

Portsmouth South offers a more obviously eye catching move, with Liberal Democrat city council leader Gerald Vernon-Jackson surging in to 17/10 from an opening quote of 9/1.

What’s interesting about this constituency is that it is one of the “Unite to Remain” seats in which the Greens stood aside to give the Lib Dems a clear run. The Tories are still the favourites (evens) to gain it from incumbent MP Stephen Morgan, who won the seat for Labour for the first time in 2017. He’s a 3/1 shot in one of the election’s hotter betting heats.

In Hartlepool there’s been something of a betting plunge on a candidate representing the other side of the fault line in British politics - the Brexit Party’s Richard Tice. His odds are in to 5/2 from an opening quote of 8/1. It’s worth noting that 5/2 is the same odds of the Brexit Party winning just a single seat. However, Labour is still an odds on 4/5 in the Hartlepool vs Tice contest.

There’s better news for the Tories in Finchley & Golders Green, which rounds out the list of top movers. The Tories opened at 11/10, but are now priced at 8/15.

Incumbent Mike Freer is defending a majority of just 1,641 over Labour, which needs to make gains in London to offset likely losses elsewhere in the country. However, this is a seat in which the Jewish community is strongly represented and the betting markets suggest that Freer’s main challenger is now a Liberal Democrat in the former of Luciana Berger, the Jewish MP who quit Labour over the anti-semitism scandal that’s been dogging the party.

The Lib Dems weren’t all that far away from losing their deposit last time around, securing just 3,463 votes, good for 6.6 per cent. Berger is, however, popular locally and represents a 13/8 shot. Labour trails in third at 12/1.

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Nationally, the betting markets aren’t at all cheerful for Jo Swinson’s party. Phil Fairclough, political trader at Sporting Index, says the party has “fallen off a cliff” with clients. The spread on Lib Dem seats started out at 46-50. It’s now down to 23-27. Fairclough says Swinson’s Question Time appearance further knocked sentiment towards the party.