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The University of Alberta’s Andrew Leach noted that this result got rather more attention than it really deserved. If these cuts were a necessary condition, it would not be possible to keep global temperatures from increasing by 2 C without these sharp reductions in oilsands production. If they were a sufficient condition, these cutbacks in production would guarantee that the target would be met. Professor Leach notes that while the 85 per cent figure was an outcome of their preferred model, it was neither a necessary condition nor a sufficient condition for keeping climate change in check. These reductions in Canadian oilsands production would account for a temperature change of 0.02 C, about one per cent of the global target.

But perhaps the real issue is that the “leave it in the ground” line is part of a broader narrative in which greenhouse gas emissions are seen as a problem for the oil and gas sector alone to solve, not Canada as a whole. But it hardly makes sense for a sector that accounts for 25 per cent of GGEs to be obliged to bear 100 per cent of the reductions.

Reducing GGEs requires cutting back on activities that generate emissions. The reason why economists prefer market-based approaches to climate change reduction is that putting a price on carbon takes the decision of which activities should be shut down away from the government (and their lobbyists) and gives it to the market. Firms that cannot cover the costs of their emissions will be forced to shut down and emissions will continue to be generated in the sectors that generate enough value to cover their costs.

These disruptions won’t be — and shouldn’t be — limited to the oil and gas sector

An effective climate change policy will almost certainly reduce the pace of oilsands development and some projected operations will likely get cancelled. But these disruptions won’t be — and shouldn’t be — limited to the oil and gas sector. McQuaig could easily have said, “some marginal auto plants may have to close if we’re going to meet our climate change targets,” or even, “those new refineries may have to stay unbuilt if we’re going to meet our climate change targets.”

The atmosphere doesn’t care which sector generates greenhouse gases. Neither should politicians.

National Post