Ngaire Woods says Britain wants to have its cake and eat it too. Brexiteers seek to “pursue export-superpower status” – they want to leave the EU, which is their single largest trade partner, while also aiming to “increase” their exports. Unfortunately they cannot have both. The EU is keen on preserving the integrity of the common market, and upholding its laws, and Britain will not be able to cherry-pick a trade deal.

EU negotiator, Michel Barnier said he is “strongly opposed” to Theresa May’s Chequers proposals on future trade. He also warned European manufacturers that the streamlined system of imports and exports between the UK and the rest of Europe would come to an end, once Britain left the bloc. It is widely believed that Britain lacks a vision on trade after Brexit, and there is fear that it “will soon become not just a lesser exporter, but also a lesser power.”

The author says, Britain, unlike exporting superpowers like China and the EU, lacks “clear and stable trade arrangements with other countries, so that firms can produce goods and services collaboratively across borders.” As an example, “the crankshaft of a BMW Mini crosses the English Channel three times before the car is completed.” Barnier says, European carmakers will have to use fewer British-made parts in their vehicles, in order to enjoy low tariffs on their exports around the world. This will concern the 186,000 people directly employed by the car industry in the UK.

Another “must” for a “successful” export strategy is “a focus on services, which have been largely ignored in the government’s negotiations with the EU.” The service sector makes up “79% of Britain’s GDP, and accounts for some 80% of employment in the UK economy, compared to just 10% for manufacturing.” It is the largest sector in Britain’s economy. Nevertheless it is growing only at a subdued rate, even though it seems robust.

The service sector was “the first to recover after the 2008 financial crisis; and, as of late 2017, the UK’s services exports were roughly double its services imports,” but there are mounting concerns about the impact of Brexit dampening business confidence. Service providers commented on sluggish business-to-business sales and delayed decision making on large projects in response to fears and uncertainty over the country’s political future.

What the government fails to do is to have a plan that focuses on exporting services, like expertise and know-how. They “can be much more complicated” to export than goods, because they involve “professional, scientific, and technical services” provided by “lawyers, doctors, engineers, insurers, accountants, and teachers,” that other countries must be able to “recognize and trust” Britain’s “professional qualifications and broader regulatory regime.”

Although “some 40% of services exports go to the EU,” the bloc can also boast valuable human resources, and successfully ensure that the exports of services “grow with regional economic and legal integration.” While the UK has the ability “to train, attract, and retain the world’s best experts,” it faces tough competition from France and Germany, that will welcome talented immigrants, and work “to ensure that its immigration process is smoother than that of its rivals.”

Unfortunately the new trade strategy launched by Liam Fox, Secretary of State for International Trade, is seen as naive, when he “promised that more exports would increase Britain’s economic resilience, and bring higher-skill, higher-wage jobs to the country.” Yet reality shows that “Britain is heading for the exact opposite.” The author says, “by demolishing the arrangements that provide British firms with seamless access to the world’s largest services market, and by closing itself off to immigration, the UK has embarked on a path of greater economic vulnerability, and lower-skill, lower-wage jobs.” Nevertheless many Brexit voters will only feel the pain, once Britain is outside the EU – without a deal.