We looked at strikeouts plus pop-ups minus walks, even if I need to re-run those numbers with pop-ups divided by plate appearances. And then we looked at Arsenal Scores, even if I need to re-run those numbers with more precision. Those things, plus projections, all inform my rankings, which I’ll run below.

But a word about my process. Pitching foils projection systems more than hitting for a reason: there are small changes that can make a huge difference. And changes in role are huge.

So, if you sort for the third category in my rankings below (difference percentage), you’ll find a bunch of guys that made small changes down the stretch that I think will make a big difference. And a bunch of guys that I think will win the fifth starter role. As well as guys that get hidden outs with the pop-up, and a bunch of guys undervalued by their overall numbers despite good arsenals.

You might be surprised to hear that I don’t run this all through a projection system and press go, and then run the rankings. That might be the best way to go. But I’m more intuitive. I’d rather play the would you rather and rely on my first impression in some cases. I’d rather go by my own sense of the depth charts than any that is put together for me. I’d rather feel my way through the ranks.

So, yeah, my default rankings are basically straight out of the auction calculator. That helps me stay grounded in the numbers. But then I move guys around like a human being, using all the inputs at my disposal, making intuitive choices along the way. And this is what popped out of my brain machine.

Here’s a fun thing to do with the ranks. Sort by Diff% (descending) like I said above. You’ll basically get all the guys I like more than consensus. Without really looking at other peoples ranks, I outed my own ‘sleepers.’ It’s full of all the names you’d expect.

I’ll update these again in March, when we know a little bit more about depth charts — after all, there are 70 unsigned free agents that may change things up in the next month. And, hey, since this is the product of my sense of reasoning, I may even listen to your impassioned defense or attack on one player or another in the comments section. Keep it civil, though, I have a three year old at home that yells at me enough for three lifetimes.