Bill Nelson says he's not fazed by Rick Scott's energetic campaign. Some Democrats say he ought to be

WASHINGTON — Sen. Bill Nelson insists he's not worried about winning re-election in November even though the GOP opponent who wants his job, independent analysts and some in his own party say the Florida Democrat should be.

So far, Republican Gov. Rick Scott has out-spent, out-campaigned and out-muscled Nelson in a nationally watched race that could decide who controls the Senate next year.

Scott's ads have been blanketing the Florida airwaves for weeks and a new one starts Tuesday. And the governor's been traversing the state, attempting to define an 18-year incumbent who remains a relative unknown among a significant slice of the state electorate.

Nelson's campaign has not gone on the air yet. And though he travels the state in his capacity as a senator, he only began gearing up his campaign earlier this month.

In Scott, Nelson faces his toughest Senate opponent yet: a well-known, two-term governor who can not only campaign tirelessly but spent more than $80 million of his own fortune to win two statewide elections. And the former health care executive sounds willing to dip into his wallet again if he thinks he needs to against Nelson.

"I'm going to do whatever I can to win this election," Scott, 65, said in an interview last month.

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To all of that, Nelson shrugs.

Florida voters "know who the governor is but they don't necessarily like that guy," the senator said this week during a Capitol Hill interview, referring to polls showing relatively high disapproval ratings for Scott's performance as governor.

And Nelson, 75, downplays polls showing up to a third of Florida voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"I have not been on the ballot in the last six years and a lot of new people have moved here," he said, pointing to the transient nature of Florida's population. "So you ask am I worried. Do I look like I'm worried?"

Democrats split on worry level

Florida Democrats are of two minds about the threat posed by the frenetic pace of Scott's spending and campaigning.

Some party activists generally support Nelson's play-it-cool approach, saying most Floridians aren't paying attention to the race now and there's plenty of time to make the case against Scott, who's never been a beloved governor and is running in a year when Democrats are expected to do well.

"Democrats are motivated to turn out and that motivation is not going to slow down between now and November," said Alan Clendenin, a Tampa-based activist who chairs the Democratic National Committee's Southern Caucus.

Others say Nelson needs to pick his pace up — pronto.

"If I was Bill Nelson, I’d be worried," deep-pocketed Democratic donor John Morgan recently told reporters.

And former State Sen. Dwight Bullard, D- Miami-Dade, said Nelson has to put "more pep in his step" if he wants to win.

"Gov. Scott is more than just formidable," Bullard said. "He's a (former political) novice who's now become the chief executive of the third-largest state in the country, so that should give everyone a level of concern — especially Sen. Nelson."

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Polls show the race even

Polls indicate the race is essentially a toss-up and few expect that will change much before Election Day in a state known for its down-to-the-wire races. For both, it will be their sternest political test.

Scott captured less than 50 percent in each of his two gubernatorial races despite far outspending opponents winning in years (2010, 2014) very favorable for Republicans. Nelson's three Senate victories took place in years (2000, 2006, 2012) very favorable for Democrats against opponents pundits deemed clearly inferior.

Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report, wrote in a recent overview of the race that Nelson's "low-key" demeanor has served the senator well on Capitol Hill. But that easygoing, affable approach "is part of the challenge he faces" in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since Nelson won six years ago.

"With 10 media markets and 27 congressional districts, any candidate with statewide aspirations needs two things to be competitive: name identification and money," she wrote. "Scott has both."

Scott is trying the gain the advantage less than two months after formally entering the race.

He's spent nearly $8 million on TV ads so far, including Spanish-language spots, and his campaign is dropping another $2 million on a statewide ad airing Tuesday expected to depict Nelson as a career politician and a partisan hack in Congress. That's on top of outside groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who have run their own ads.

"He has unlimited resources," Nelson concedes of Scott. But "he has taken very strange positions and over time you will see how he is in public life for himself. Contrast that with me, who has been in a life of public service."

In addition, polls show Scott's approval ratings ticking up as well as those for President Trump, whom Democrats want to tie Scott to as the election approaches.

Outside groups already playing role

Nelson's allies have nervously taken notice.

The Senate Majority PAC, formed in 2011 to help Democrats, is spending more than $2 million to run a statewide TV ad portraying Nelson as a senator protecting Florida's interests on health care and Social Security.

Numerous other outside groups are expected to invest heavily in the race, which may help blunt Scott's early advantage. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., might help Scott in his own way if he follows through on a threat to keep the Senate in session during its traditional August recess, a move that would limit Nelson's ability to campaign throughout Florida during the summer.

Like Nelson, Clendenin, said he's not too worried because most voters won't tune into the race until Labor Day approaches.

Then "we'll see more accurate polling and a more accurate temperature of what's happening in the state of Florida," he said. "And I'm confident that temperature's going to be blue."

Matt Isbell, a Tallahassee-based data consultant who advises Democrats. echoes most pundits in touting the inherent advantage of Democratic candidates running for Congress in a year when public support of Trump remains underwater in Florida and nationally.

"So even if you think that Nelson is weaker than Scott on the campaign front, unless it's complete incompetence versus a master stroke campaign, Scott's at a disadvantage because of the national mood," he said.

But Bullard, now the political director of a progressive group called The New Florida Majority, warns of complacency.

"If you're assuming this election cycle (that) everyone who's anti-Trump is just rolling out voraciously and voting for anyone with a 'D' next to their name, that may not be the case," he said. "What we're finding is people are more apt to vote for something than against something ... Every day becomes more challenging if you're not cementing what that message is going to look like."