Coalition trails Labor 49% to 51% on two-party preferred basis in Fairfax-Ipsos poll, with PM’s falling approval rating apparently leading the overall decline

This article is more than 3 years old

This article is more than 3 years old

The Turnbull government is on 49% behind Labor’s 51% in two-party preferred terms, the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows.

Turnbull’s falling personal standing appears to be leading the broader decline, dropping eight percentage points since June and a large 53 percentage points over the last year, the poll published by Fairfax Media shows.

An equal percentage of voters now either approves or disapproves of the way Turnbull is doing his job, giving him a net approval rating of zero.

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The poll found nearly two-thirds of voters believe that the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, is supported by his party but fewer than half believe that of Turnbull.

But Turnbull has opened up his lead as preferred prime minister to 51-30, with 19% undecided. He also leads Shorten on eight of 11 leadership attributes but has suffered a 9% drop in his rating as a “strong leader”.

The nationwide phone survey of 1,403 respondents was conducted between 24 November and 26 November.

It found support for minor parties had soared to 18%, five percentage points higher than at the 2 July election.

The primary vote of the Coalition is down six points to 36% and Labor’s is also down six points to 30%. The Greens vote came in at 16%.

The poor poll results for the Coalition comes before the final parliamentary sitting week of the year, with the government hoping to pass legislation to re-establish the building industry watchdog, the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

The government is also seeking to make peace over water reforms – after falling out with the key South Australian senator Nick Xenophon over its failure to deliver an extra 450 gigalitres of water as part of the Murray-Darling Basin agreement signed in 2013.

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Xenophon told the government last week he would not deal with any legislation, including the ABCC bill, until the water dispute was resolved.

But Turnbull has now reportedly struck a compromise deal with Xenophon to withhold billions of dollars in government contracts from builders who fail to pay subcontractors on time, as a sign of good faith as talks over the water dispute continue.

Turnbull is also reportedly considering new commitments to improving the Murray-Darling river system to win over Xenophon and his team of crossbenchers.