1. Brad: So many people want to take him to the end and think they can beat him. But that perception is based on public bursts of rage directed at him that weren’t totally warranted. That reminds me of someone… By most accounts, Brad is actually a nice guy, and has shown that he has the chops to be in strategic control. From experience, I know that once someone decides you’re beatable at final Tribal Council, it’s hard to shake that idea, even when the evidence in front of you says otherwise. I’m looking towards those that are underestimated to do well on this season. 2. Sarah: Sarah is coming into this game with a very low threat level, and almost no one is talking about her. That’s a great place to be, especially when you actually are strategic, physical, and social. If Sarah can keep a low profile early, and then strike towards the end game, she has a great chance.

3. Zeke: Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I know from experience how good Zeke is at working people and building great connections. He’s very likable and very strategic. A powerful and winning combo. But with Russell’s legacy on “Heroes vs. Villains” in the minds of the others pre-game, he may have a bigger target as an unknown than he would have had otherwise. 4. Andrea: Andrea is my highest rated known ‘schemer’ in the cast. The others seem to understand that she is strategic, but they aren’t quite sure how threatened they are by her. All someone like Andrea needs is a window, and she seems to have that with this group. She’s got the charm to get them to drop their guard even when they know they shouldn’t.

5. Troyzan: Troyzan is similar to Brad in that he is wholly underestimated and people seem poised to want to take him far. This is the perfect kind of season for him, with a plethora of people that ought to be targets ahead of him, giving him time to build the strong bonds he needs. But he’s been blindsided to his real place in an alliance twice before (One World and the Durham Warrior Survival Challenge) – he’ll either learn from that or maybe he just doesn’t have that killer instinct. 6. Michaela: Michaela has all the tools. She is smart, likable, loyal, and insanely valuable in challenges. I think a significant majority of this cast will want to work with her. My only worry is that she hasn’t had enough time to learn from her mistakes: namely, keeping her thoughts and plans closer to the chest.

7. Ozzy: Ozzy’s stock has jumped the highest for me since the cast was announced. I used to think his social game would never allow him to win, but it does appear that Ozzy is more humble and soft-spoken than I would have guessed. If he can connect in a real way, he has everything else he needs to do well. 8.Hali: Hali is similar to Sarah in her pre-game threat level and that she has the potential to be a social, strategic, and physical threat, but also has the most refreshing humility of the whole cast. She knows she didn’t really do much to change the game last time out, but she is excited at the chance to change that. My worry is that she will swing too hard as a result, and that she has not done her homework and knows very little about the people she’s up against.

9. JT: JT is my highest rated winner. Everyone is looking at Sandra and Tony, which is great when you also happen to be a flawless winner. Don’t get me wrong, JT still has a massive target, but he is easily one of the best players out there and has a chance to overcome it. 10. Aubry: Aubry comes into this game with a massive target, having just been a strategic force on the most recently watched season. Her best bet would be to rally the other strategic threats together and then slide into their shadows. Plus, how epic of a season would that be?

11. Cirie: Cirie’s threat level is as massive as anyone’s, but I’m counting on her incredible charm to somehow still find a group of loyal allies. Even if she manages to go far, she’ll have a hell of a time getting all the way to the end. 12. Malcolm: Malcolm was my winner’s pick when I first heard the cast. He is social, strategic, and athletic, but not too much of anything to be an immediate target. But after reading pre-game interviews, I don’t think he has the humility to let the other huge egos around him shine. Sure, a lot of what he says is in jest, but it doesn’t always come off that way, and I don’t think this cast will stand for it.

13. Sierra: Sierra played a loyal game last time and I think a lot of people will want to work with her here. In my opinion, that will be a mistake for many of them. She knows that loyalty and not making a move was her downfall, so I’m looking towards Sierra to be the unexpected throat-cutter of the season. I think there’s a great chance she makes the final 3 with a solid game behind her, but I have a hard time imagining the jury awarding Sierra the win in a season entitled “Game Changers.” 14. Tai: Tai is lovely and adorable and someone I would love to see do well. My worry is that he has a hard time articulating his thought processes, something that you have to do not just at final Tribal, but throughout the game, in order to inspire confidence.

15. Jeff: Don’t be fooled into thinking Varner is old-school. He is as new-school as it gets, and is probably a bit too over-eager to ‘play the game.’ Patience is key, and I’m not sure Varner has enough of it to win. 16. Debbie: In a sea of competing egos, I’m not sure Debbie has it in her to fade into the background like she will need to in order to reach the end game. Her best bet is to entertain and stroke the egos around her, something I do think she is capable of.

17. Sandra: I actually think that Sandra could do very well with this group. She doesn’t have the perception of being as much of a ‘schemer’ as Tony, and could be seen as a loyal ally. The problem? Without a loss on her record, only the foolish are going to be willing to let her reach day 39. 18. Ciera: She is talking a huge game and underestimating virtually all of her competitors. She’s known as a ‘schemer’ and I don’t see many out there who will look to Ciera for steady loyalty.