The Drake Equation is scientifically accepted formula for calculating abiogenesis (the odds of a simple protein, the building block of life, forming), and states that the chances of life arising spontaneously are approximately 1×10^400.

There have been some newer formulas that try to factor in a few more values, but sadly, I wasn’t able to find the Scharf-Cronin equation actually applied anywhere yet.

A presumably bored mathematician in England applied this equation to the odds of love spontaneously arising out of nothing, which saves me the work of doing so. He found that the approximate odds of finding love to be 1 in 285,000.

Now, Seattle is a big city compared to my hometown of 6,000 humble farmers. But on the global stage, it’s hardly even qualifies. London, at a bustling 8.136 million, dwarfs Seattle’s mere 725,000. That is over 11 times more people.

So, it looks like we’re gonna have to redo this math.

*ahem*

EVERYONE, STAND BACK. I AM GOING TO ATTEMPT TO MATH.

*women begin to wail in the distance, men screaming, running down corridors. Sirens begin to blare an alert to evacuate to shelter*

The formula as applied by Peter Backus is as follows, prefaced by the aforementioned Drake Equation:

Drake Equation

N = R * fp * ne * fl * fi * fc * L

Backus Equation

G = N* x Fw x Fs x Fa x Fu x Fb

N = G -The number of civilizations (women, in this case) capable of interstellar communication, or in our universe model, the United States population. [372,200,000]

R∗ = R Rate of star formation (or human formation, i.e, birth or immigration) in a given system. This system will focus on Washington State. That’s 117,000 people a year, roughly [117,000]

Fp = Fw – The fraction of the population that is female in the the USA. This number could make the calculations if I were bisexual, but alas, I am heterosexual and making things difficult for myself. [0.51]

Ne = Fs – The fraction of the planets or population that is able to support life or able to be in a heterosexual relationship i.e, the fraction of the US population that is female and also in Seattle. So 48% of the 725,000 population of Seattle (348000), divided by the population of (372,200,000) is… Cue the disappointing sound effects… .[0.001]

fl = Fa – The fraction of women who I wouldn’t be jailed or receive weird looks and questions for dating, i.e, someone age-appropriate. After having gone on several dates with women who were just shy of drinking age, we’ll need to rule out anyone under 21, since I have no idea what people did before alcohol dates. And since I still go to raves and ride motorcycles and play video games, someone over the age of 34 likely wouldn’t be interested or able to keep up. So that remainder of women should be 21.3% of 48% of 725,000, or 74,124 for those keeping along. [0.213]

fi = Fu – The fraction of planets (or women) in Seattle that go on to develop signs of intelligent life. The original author implemented this as a college degree requirement, and although I don’t necessarily agree with that metric as degrees are increasingly irrelevant to income, it does show a degree of maturity and merit we can utilize here. Seattle is a pretty highly educated city, so we get to keep a whopping 36% of that age range. [0.36]

fc = Fb – The fraction of civilizations who develop technology detectable by outside observation, or the fraction of women who I would like to observe, if you catch my drift. At 1 in 20, this is 5%. [0.05]

L = L – Length of time these signs would have been detectable, aka, how old I am. [28]

So taking these values, we have:

G = N* x Fw x Fs x Fa x Fu x Fb

G = 327,200,000 * 0.51 * 0.001 * 0.21 * 0.36 * 0.05

So, solving for G, that gives me a grand total of six hundred and thirty one eligible bachelorettes! Look out Colton, my season’s gonna be *wild.*

But wait! there’s more! I have exes! And people I can’t date due to the fact that they’re my family, and other social conventions not originally included in the previous study. So, let’s subtract the average number of women a 28 year old man has slept with [7], and the average number of family and extended family members in the US [20].

And of the remaining women who I haven’t already ruled out of my love life, or are related to, not *all* of them are going to find me attractive. Or charming. Or anywhere near as funny as I think I am. On a GOOD day, if I were to approach a table in a bar with a sample size of 10 women, of the 10 sample subjects, I’d say a solid 3 of them may wanna get to know this pasty white Irish McKraut. I’m being WAY generous here for the sake of easy math. [.33]

And the the more attractive half of those interested are probably already accounted for as far as a mate is concerned. [0.5]

Further on still, are the odds that we will find each other attractive, that she’d be single, AND we’d be able to tolerate each other. I’m pretty easy to get along with. I like a wide variety of things, and have nearly limitless ability to make things interesting for myself. So, we’ll say that I’d get along with a third of those who remain. [0.5]

So, in other words, maybe 3/4 of a woman out of 10 women will think I’m attractive, be single, and be mutually interested and able to cohabitate.

So now, at long last, we’re at-

(G-7-20)(0.33)(0.5)(0.33)

(631-27)(0.33)(0.5)(0.33)

Ready?

Thirty three.

There are thirty three women, in all of Seattle, that mathematically, I might tolerate and not get killed by.

0.000045517%. That’s 46 in a million. Or one in 20,139.

For comparison, you have a one in 15,300 chance of being struck by lightning.

So. When I say I used up all the luck I have for this life meeting you, just know that I might be a little more prone to lightning strikes. But even a direct hit couldn’t replicate the electricity between us 👉🏻😎👉🏻

Oh, and there’s only a 1 in 100 chance of actually *dying* from a lightning strike, so if I had to choose between meeting you again, or riding the lightning, well get me a kite, key, and call be Ben, cuz I’m goin a-flying.

Click to access why_i_dont_have_a_girlfriend.pdf

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/washington-poised-to-become-one-of-10-states-where-men-outnumber-women/

http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/seattle-population/

https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds

http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/impacts.htm