“Pat Cummins is world cricket’s next big thing” blares the Herald Sun’s headline. It is November 2011. “Cummins personifies hope,” declares the Sydney Morning Herald. “He has emerged as Australia’s next great fast-bowling hope,” states ABC. The 18-year-old has just made his Test debut against South Africa at the Wanderers, only six months after his first-class bow, and dismissed Hashim Amla, Jacques Rudolph, AB de Villiers and Jacques Kallis in the course of the match, taking 7-115 and scoring the winning runs as Australia chase 310 in the fourth innings. He is named man-of-the-match in his first game, as his side level the series.

At this point, his career to date has been almost perfect; after his professional debut in January 2011, he has reached the KFC Big Bash final, his sixth Twenty20 game, and been the competition’s joint-highest wicket-taker, and then won the Sheffield Shield for New South Wales in just his third first-class game. His fourth is his Test debut, which comes after his 3-25 and 2-26 in an International T20 series against South Africa in October and the subsequent ODIs. His confident whack through mid-wicket for four off Imran Tahir secures a two-wicket victory for his side, and Cummins, despite having an injury complaint, runs at huge pace down to his partner, Mitchell Johnson, and gives him a huge bear hug. It is the stuff of fairy tales.

However, that slight injury complaint turned out to be the second significant injury of his short playing career. He had recovered from a stress fracture of the back suffered in the Sheffield Shield Final to play on the winter tour, and now had succumbed to a stress fracture of the foot. Early indications were that he would miss the start of the Australian summer, but he failed to make a senior appearance in the home 2011/12 season, managing only three games for Australia U19s in the Townsville Quadrangular Series.

In June 2012, he appears in the rain-affected ODI against Ireland, and then again against England at Lord’s, but loses his place in the side. He is, however, selected for Australia’s T20 side, and wins praise for his pace and accuracy in the 2-1 defeat to Pakistan in the UAE, in which he concedes just six runs per over, taking five wickets at 13.20. Thus, the Sydney-born fast bowler is selected in the World T20 squad, and manages six wickets in as many games as Australia reach the semi-finals. Continuing his busy winter, Cummins goes back to South Africa for the first time since his Test debut, and wins the Champions League T20 with the Sydney Sixers, taking six wickets with an economy rate of 7.79 in the tournament. It seems that his injury issue is behind him, and his body is fully adapting to the stress of being an international seamer.

But in November, everything changes. The 6’4” bowler suffers a second stress fracture of the back that month, and his next game comes in July 2013 on the Australia A team’s tour of South Africa. After two four-day games and a one-day match, his injury recurs on tour, and he misses almost the whole of the Australian 2013/14 season, with four Big Bash games and a trio of grade appearances all he manages.

In May 2014, Cummins is fit again, and plays one IPL game for the Kolkata Knight Riders, before being picked for Australia A in July. The Champions League T20 and Matador BBQs One Day Cup are enough to convince the selectors he is worthy of a place in the one-day squad against South Africa. His 4.58 economy rate in the T20 series is impressive, and after a decent Big Bash for the Sydney Thunder, he is selected in the Cricket World Cup squad, where he plays four games as Australia win the tournament.

Despite not having played a first-class game since his Test debut, Cummins replaces the injured Ryan Harris in the Ashes squad, and performs solidly in the tour games against Northampshire and Derbyshire. His 2-25 in the only Twenty20 International at Cardiff is eye-catching for English fans, who have not seen a lot of him, due to his excessive pace – he reached 96mph – and he manages twelve wickets at 19.67 in the five-match ODI series which follows.

In the final game at Old Trafford, he performs slightly below-par, conceding 33 runs in six overs whilst the other seamers, Mitchell Starc, John Hastings and Mitchell Marsh, enjoy substantially more success. It is later revealed that he suffered a lower back pain in that match.

He was selected for the new-look Test squad to tour Bangladesh this October on account of his strong performances and despite his lack of first-class cricket, and was hopeful of transferring that form into the Test arena. Australia’s charismatic coach Darren Lehmann said of Cummins, “he’s flying isn’t he? I’m really impressed with the way he’s going. He’s been exceptional. His pace is up, he’s bowling good areas and good variations. The one-day game really suits him and now it’s about transferring that into red-ball form.”

But his injury at Old Trafford turned out not to be a minor one. It is yet another stress fracture of the back. He is ruled out of the tour, and replaced by James Faulkner.

“Pat Cummins experienced lower back pain during the last ODI match in the UK and this pain continued upon his return to Australia,” Cricket Australia physiotherapist David Beakley said. “He subsequently underwent an MRI scan yesterday which unfortunately has revealed a new early stage lumbar bone stress fracture. Consequently Pat will be unable to participate in the Bangladesh Test series and will now enter into a lengthy rehabilitation program.”

“This is really unfortunate for Pat and I know how disappointed he will be,” national selection panel chair Rod Marsh said. “He is a young bowler with a bright future for Australia and we were really pleased with how he bowled in the UK.”

But is Cummins’ future still bright? Given that each stress fracture takes three months to heal at the very least, he has now missed over a year of cricket thanks to injury, and has played only a handful of games in the past three home summers which should have helped to shape his career. After a couple more serious injuries, his body may struggle to recover.

He has already become something of a short-form specialist in recent years, and there must be serious question marks as to whether he can cope with the strain of bowling several long spells as is required in Test cricket. His career could well go down the route of Shaun Tait as things stand, who quickly became a T20 specialist and whose main focus was on bowling as quickly as possible for four overs.

If he fails to recover well from this latest injury, Pat Cummins’ Test chances could be hugely damaged. He has time on his side, but with an injury history as marred as his, it would be a risk to back him to last all five days of a Test Match any time soon.

Has this most recent blow put the career of “world cricket’s next big thing” at risk?