Hint: They’ll Still Get Their Way Very, Very Soon

The Democratic Nomination and the Progressive-Moderate Divide

There are two clear national frontrunners for the Democratic nomination for President — Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. The visions of the two could not be more different, despite some policy similarities. Recently, Bernie has experienced a surge, with 27% of all members of the Democratic party supporting him nationwide, according to a CNN poll from 19 January. There was a point when Bernie was polling far lower, competing with many other progressives who have now dropped out or fallen in the polls, such as Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. Now, however, Bernie has emerged as the face of Democratic progressivism, a movement mainly concerned with wealth inequality, universal healthcare, and tackling climate change.

Bernie On The Campaign Trail

Bernie has made these issues front-and-center of his campaign, proposing a federal $15 minimum wage, an 8% wealth tax on wealth over $10 billion, the full replacement of private health insurance with Medicare for All, and supporting Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s “Green New Deal”.

The level of change Biden wants seems tiny in comparison. Whilst he does support a $15 minimum wage, he instead hopes for a more moderate “Medicare for Choice” policy, where Americans can opt into a (paid) government health insurance program instead, or can keep their current insurance. There is no wealth tax in Biden’s manifesto, although he does also support increasing taxes on the rich — the same as all other Democratic frontrunners. Whilst Biden undoubtedly sees climate change as an important issue, he does not support the “Green New Deal”. Oh, and unlike Bernie, he does not support federal marijuana legalization, instead wanting to “leave it to the states”, as he said during one of the Democratic debates.

The race for Democratic nominee is undoubtedly heated and close, and the results are still difficult to predict. Whilst a Bernie win would represent an absolutely massive (and likely permanent) change in the nature of the Democratic party, a Biden win would arguably only increase tensions more, solidifying the progressive-moderate divide in the party and likely pushing it further towards progressivism in the future.

Progressives Want Change — And They’re Only Going To Push Harder

A Biden win would not mean a rejection of progressivism. The Democrats have solidified themselves as the party of the progressives, especially compared to Republicans, who have shown themselves to be completely against any progressive programs.

The progressive movement is mostly a young one, covering the views of Millennials, and, increasingly, Generation Z. Many of those in Generation Z are not of voting age, but they will be soon, ready to vote in the 2024 election. The progressive movement is characterized by anger at the Democratic establishment, rallying around hope for “institutional change”, as Bernie calls it. This frustration has existed for years, and a nomination win for a moderate by a tiny margin will not change that.

Progressives have nowhere else to go, so they must — and will — make the Democratic party theirs. Bernie probably will not run for nominee in 2024 — he would be 82 during the next primary. At this point, concerns about his health and age would probably be too important to ignore. There are plenty of other progressives who would be more than happy to capture and court the growing young Democratic voterbase, including Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, who will soon be old enough to run for President.

America’s Crises Would Continue Under Biden

Biden’s aversion to heavy institutional change would mean that many of the issues that plague America now, such as a failing healthcare system and growing wealth inequality, would most likely remain after he leaves office. Biden has made himself known for his ability to compromise and work with Republicans, something Bernie has made clear he will not do.

For Biden to have a hope of passing his policies, he would need to recapture the Senate — a task easier said than done with Republican campaign spending, gerrymandering, and ongoing genuine popularity many parts of America. He would also need to retain control of the House. If all the conditions are right, Biden could probably pass some (heavily) watered-down versions of his bills, but to what use? Progressives would not be happy with the lack of a wealth tax, proper environmental protection, and universal healthcare. Moderates would see few actual changes in the way that America is run, with many of their hopes for Biden and moderate reform being weaked by Republican resistance and interference.

All this means that the need for institutional reform would not be, by any means, properly reduced once Biden leaves office. Progressives would suffer another 4 years of painfully slow and small changes, only emboldening their campaigns for what Bernie calls “real change”. As more Generation Z-ers start emerging from college with tens of dollars in debt and affected by liberally-minded education, the number of Conservative Gen Z-ers would further shrink.

Demographic Changes Would Still Ensure A Progressive America Sooner, Rather Than Later

What is the Democratic Voterbase?

The best way to describe it would be a racially diverse, mostly college-educated and young group of both men and women. The Republican voterbase, comparatively, is heavily dominated by older, whiter, men. And they’re a dying breed.

Recently, Millennials overtook Baby Boomers as a percentage of the national voterbase. The majority of children under 1 in America are now non-white, and this points to a future where the Democrats, who have courted people of color and younger voters for decades, are poised to win an election victory unlike any other that America has experienced. Unless the Republicans somehow make themselves a party that appeals to people of color — and quickly — the future does not look bright for them.

Younger people tend to be more progressive than older people. It is also only getting more and more common for young Americans to go to college, another factor that can heavily affect political views, often shifting the views of their students further to the left. Once these people finally come into the voterbase — and they already, slowly, are, there will be a huge shift in favour of the Democrats and of a progressive program for America. America will get its universal healthcare, free college, and climate reforms sooner, rather than later.

The Democrats just have to wait.