Regional government claims rail transit is "inspiring new residential and business investments" near planned stations. You'd expect council to say that after betting almost $2 billon on it.

Politicians approved electric trains on streets in Kitchener and Waterloo in 2011. To test its real impact, let's compare where developers built before and after approval, using up to 10 years of building permits (2005 to 2014) provided by regional government.

The focus is on development within 800 metres of planned stations. That's where planners say rapid transit draws workplaces and homes.

Housing evidence supports rapid transit promoters. Since 2012, 86 more residential units per year have been built near planned stations, up 13 per cent. Station areas have attracted 25 per cent of all residential growth in the region, up from 20 per cent before. This is for the entire rapid transit line including Cambridge, which is getting express buses.

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Business evidence is not the same. Up to 2011, commercial developers built on average 296,814 square feet per year near planned train stations in Kitchener and Waterloo. This accounted for 24 per cent of all commercial growth in the region.

Since 2012, developers have built 136,185 square feet per year near planned stations in Kitchener and Waterloo. This accounts for 22 per cent of all commercial growth in the region.

So after politicians approved trains, commercial growth collapsed by more than half near planned train stations. And station areas drew a slightly smaller share of development.

Evidence about rail transit impacts is clearly mixed. Digging deeper, the commercial collapse since 2011 has fallen almost entirely on Waterloo. Kitchener has almost maintained its pace of commercial growth. So perhaps rail transit is propping up Kitchener but doing nothing for Waterloo.

It may be that development trends have little to do with rail transit, in part because trains are not yet running. Waterloo is seeing a student housing explosion that may have peaked. It is still seeing commercial fallout from the BlackBerry boom and bust. The sputtering economy affects all cities.

We'll probably have to wait until trains are running to discern their true impact on development. Until then be wary of cheerleading.