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Our polling methods are bunk': Political science professor says pollsters have NO IDEA

Daily Mail UK ^ | October 17, 2016 | By Francesca Chambers

Posted on by COUNTrecount

'Our polling methods are bunk': Political science professor says pollsters have NO IDEA who will vote in November

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by an average of 6.3 percent in surveys used in Real Clear Politics' projections Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight says there's an 86.6 percent likelihood that Clinton will win; Trump has a 13.4 percent chance of pulling it off Helmut Norpoth is a political science professor at Stony Brook University and an election forecaster whose model has been correct since 1996 He's advising voters to 'hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet' His model, based off of the candidates' primary performances, has Trump winning on Nov. 8; it's 87 percent certain A casual observer of national polling on the White House race might conclude that Hillary Clinton is the assured victor.

All but three of the surveys taken since the first general election debate that are included on industry website Real Clear Politics have Clinton ahead. She leads Donald Trump by an average of 6.3 percent in recent surveys.

However, Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University and an election forecaster whose model has correctly predicted the last five national contests, is advising voters to 'hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet.'

'Clinton leads, but our polling methods are bunk,' the headline of his latest op-ed for The Hill declares.



(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...

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Norpoth's model, which has been correct since it was first used in 1996, has Donald Trump winning on Nov. 8 with an 87 percent degree of certainty. Based on Trump's and Clinton's performances in their party primaries, The Primary Model projects that the Republican businessman will beat the former secretary of state with 52.5% to her 47.5% of the two-party vote.



To: COUNTrecount

No surprise he came to this conclusion. Hard to get accurate polls when 99% of the “news” is pure propaganda.



by 2 posted onby trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)

To: COUNTrecount

The polls are as honest as the mediacrats.



To: COUNTrecount

Polling is about persuading not predicting.



by 4 posted onby ClearCase_guy (Abortion is what slavery was: immoral but not illegal. Not yet.)

To: COUNTrecount

THAT sounds like a fairly accurate result.



by 5 posted onby dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)

To: COUNTrecount

'Clinton leads, but our polling methods are bunk,' Given "bunk" polling methods, what is the evidence that Clinton leads?



To: COUNTrecount

Only one certainty in all this discussion: November 9 is going to make a whole lot of prognosticators (polls, posters, professors and pundits, on either side) look like total idiots.



by 7 posted onby BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)

To: ClearCase_guy

The same lying alphabet news, over-reporting and refusing to report also do polling.

And they could be doing bad polls?

How could this be?

Check out CNN’s polling director. In another life she could do marketing research for Macys.



by 8 posted onby tumblindice (America's founding fathers, all armed conservatives)

To: COUNTrecount

I don’t need a poll to say that he is 100% correct! But with trillions of dollars and thousands of careers and reputations on the line, it’s not surprising they will try... After all, putting out a “poll” just takes Excel and a few minutes to fake up some data. Who’s to know? Silver puts poll data into his model and tries to massage the data further, but that’s no different than aggregating the results of dozens of Tarot Card Readers! BS polls are tools for rigging the system.



by 9 posted onby bigbob (The Hillary indictment will have to come from us.)

To: COUNTrecount

The WikiLeaks email releases shows that the “pollsters” are reporting whatever the Hillary camp tells them to.



To: ClearCase_guy

Polling is about persuading not predicting.



Poll numbers for Clinton have been relatively steady throughout, haven't they? The bigger swings have been for Trump. Any time he gains ground the anti-Trump narrative swings into full gear to knock him back down, which leads me to believe the polls are part of the narrative.



To: COUNTrecount

Northpoth is a little shy on details.



by 12 posted onby RitaOK (Viva Christo Rey! Public Education is the farm team for more Marxists coming,... infinitum.)

To: COUNTrecount

Northpoth is a little shy on details.



by 13 posted onby RitaOK (Viva Christo Rey! Public Education is the farm team for more Marxists coming,... infinitum.)

To: COUNTrecount

There may well be changes in the electorate that aren’t being tracked or predicted properly. For example, we have heard sometimes during this election cycle, that Trump was doing much better than Democrats normally do with black voters. Some polls suggested that Trump could get 15-20% of the black vote. If he did get that big a percentage, that upsets the applecart of their polling methods and predicitons. I haven’t heard any discussion of the black vote recently. Is it because the liberals don’t want to speculate about the black vote slipping from the Democrats???? Voter enthusiam/turnout is another factor which may cause an outcome the pollsters don’t see coming. Hillary does not excite her base, whereas Trump has generated great enthusiasm.



To: COUNTrecount

I posted this in August about pollsters: Many of the so called pollsters have been Democrat Operatives for decades going back to when they predicted Carter would beat Reagan. Pollsters today are like the buggy whip makers in the early 1900s, facing economic devastation because they cant poll many people. They are in a losing battle with social media and cell phones. Now, they are trying to compete with cell phones, social media and the problem of less landline phones. More and more people on both ends of the age spectrum do not have landline phones. They only have cell phones. Does anyone with a cell phone ever answer any unknown numbers and specifically any 800 #s?

Probably not. We use No More Robocalls on our two land lines. Zero pollsters have gotten through since we started using No More Robocalls, 2 plus years ago. None of our voting age relatives have received a call from any pollster this election. That is 20+ Trump voters. Then, there is this on social media versus polls:

Social Media Patterns Show Trump Is Looking at a Landslide Victory Gateway Pundit ^ | Aug 7th, 2016 | Jim Hoft

Posted on 8/7/2016, 8:32:37 AM by detective Current polls show the race for President is much tighter than it really is. Ann Coulter warned us years ago in her bestseller Slander that Democrats and the liberal media always use polls to manipulate and discourage conservatives from voting. Thanks to social media there is more and more evidence that the polls are way off and if things stay as they are, Trump will win in a landslide! Its evident that, Hillary has a hard time filling a Union Hall or high school gym while Trump regularly turns people away from his stadium and arena venues. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3457347/posts A final question have you or any Trump voters, you know, actually been polled this year. Nothing has changed re the bs posing as a legitimate poll!

Nothing has changed re the bs posing as a legitimate poll!

by 15 posted onby Grampa Dave (We are not electing a saint. We are electing an ass kicker! Vote for Trump! Defeat Illiarily!)

To: Dilbert San Diego

My two cents on enthusiasm: In 2012 I knew exactly 1 enthusiastic Romney supporter. Sure, I knew people who were reluctantly going to pull the lever for the GOP. I was one of them. I was reluctant, but I voted for Romney. Not surprisingly, turnout was insufficient to elect Romney. In 2016, the situation is reversed. I now know exactly 1 enthusiastic Hillary supporter. Sure I know plenty of people who say “There is no good choice this year” and some of those people will be voting against Trump. But I know many enthusiastic Trump voters this year. I’ve been to Trump rallies and seen thousands of pumped up people. There is a movement this year and it’s all Trump. Big enthusiasm all across the country. Plain as the nose on your face. But, according to the media, Trump is underperforming Romney. As you said, we heard that Trump was doing much better with blacks then Republicans normally do. But then we stopped hearing that. It doesn’t mean it stopped being true. Bu the media needs to say that Trump is doing less well than Romney. They just say stuff. And they expect voter fraud to put them over the top.



by 16 posted onby ClearCase_guy (Abortion is what slavery was: immoral but not illegal. Not yet.)

To: COUNTrecount

And here comes the Media pivot. After spending months suppressing the Trump donations and volunteers efforts with phony push polling. Miraculously in the last 2 weeks we will suddenly hear how tight the race is in order to not cause Hillary’s weak base support to decide to stay home on election day. Give how loathed Clinton is, her voters are showing up because they are more scared of Trump then her. If the polling is showing her winning a lot of them will say “Well they don’t need my vote, I will stay home today”. I will bet they will never show Clinton behind but they will have the race in “the margin of error” going into the election.



by 17 posted onby MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)

To: COUNTrecount

I was polled last night, answered everything positive to Trump, in the end I lied, said I was a Black Independent Female, that should skew things a bit.



by 18 posted onby Robe (A nation can survive its fools and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within.)

To: Dilbert San Diego

I’d wager that black voter enthusiasm and turnout for Clinton is down, when compared to Barry in 2012. She spoke to a black audience at an event in Kansas City a few weeks ago, and the place was half empty. There are also newly registered voters, who probably don’t make it to a ‘likely voter’ model, since they’ve never voted. I also notice in the primaries that Trump did better in open primaries - meaning he does get a crossover vote. I think (like Gallup) its impossible to poll this election.



To: COUNTrecount

....and, true to form, just like the last eight years, we do not see this information in the American media—all sycophants of the Democrat party. Instead, we see it in the UK media!



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