May 12, 2014

A Lebanese politician who recently returned from a visit to Damascus told Al-Monitor that the Syrian presidential elections scheduled for June 3 have become almost the sole concern of officials there. According to this source, the elections are the only thing Syrian leaders are talking about, and their only interest is in the results.

Of course, this doesn't mean the actual results of the vote, because it appears to be a foregone conclusion that the mandate of President Bashar al-Assad will be renewed. Rather, they are concerned about the political and diplomatic impact on the course of events: How will external parties deal with the reality that emerges? What will Westerners do when it is confirmed that their adversary, Assad, will remain in power, in a legal and legitimate manner? How will the Geneva conference mechanism continue or end?

The Lebanese source also reported that senior Syrian officials in the meantime are focusing on developments on the ground and the series of local and partial settlements entered into with armed opposition units in a number of regions under the rubric of "reconciliation." He noted that a new model had appeared in recent days that consists of a mixture of two parts as happened in Homs, where the regime imposed total control over the city, considered the "capital of the revolution," and reached a quasi-settlement that allowed both sides to avoid a brutal battle in the last besieged neighborhoods of Homs’ Old City. This approach has implications for the expected coming battle in the city of Aleppo.

The politician described the situation on the ground as very fragile. He said that the reconciliation was in the very early stages and did not extend beyond cease-fires in the areas where settlements have been reached. The scenario for these reconciliations only requires that the Syrian army agree to a "reconciliation" with an armed opposition group in one or more neighborhoods. After this, steps are taken to end fighting, and then the Syrian authorities guarantee the salaries and logistics of the armed militants under the banner of including them in "national defense committees." Yet, nothing really changes on the ground. This is because, in most cases, it is impossible for the regime's army to enter the areas of the reconciliations, and Syrian state institutions remain absent. The politician noted that small and sporadic clashes had been recorded in areas where reconciliations have occurred, in addition to ongoing chaos and lawlessness.

Based on these observations, as well as on a series of meetings the politician conducted with Syrian officials and activists, the process of reassembling the fabric of the Syrian state and society will be complex, delicate and difficult, he told Al-Monitor: "There are now three distinctive components, some of which are contradictory, but they appear to be coexisting now by virtue of the reality [on the ground]. How can a single regime bring them together in the future? "