Possible future supply capacity scenario for crude oil and NGL based on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject database. The resource base post-2002 decline rate is a linearly increasing rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5% after first year.



December 2007

January 2008

February 2008

March 2008

May 2008

June 2008



Possible new gross and net new supply additions compiled by year of first oil. Crude oil + NGL monthly production from the EIA. The resource base post-2002 decline is a linearly increasing rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then constant at 4,5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5% after first year.



Possible future supply scenario for crude oil and NGL based on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject database. The resource base post-2002 decline is a linearly increasing decline rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5% after first year.



Below is the evolution of the new supply additions since the beginning of the project compiled by year of first oil:We can clearly see the initial 2008 and 2009 peaks wearing out with time due mainly to delays. Now the situation does not look so good:Below is a possible scenario for future supply assuming a 4.5% decline rate.

This scenario seems to agree with this recent statement from Ray Leonard:

Finally, maintaining this database is a lot of work and it is crucial to track delays, project final approval, etc., so I'd like to repeat our appeal: the more folks in the TOD community head over to the Wikipage and help, the faster we'll know what's really going on here.

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Many thanks to Ace who has diligently updated the data and put more than 500 separate contributions.