Miami at Boston College

Analysis:

Both teams in this game come off of byes with a 5-2 record. In Miami’s last outing, they had an upset loss at the hands of Virginia. Mark Richt is giving the nod to Malik Rosier to start this game, but neither quarterback has done much to impress. Running backs Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas need to have the run game be successful so that Rosier can be relied upon less. Miami’s defensive front needs a good day, as AJ Dillon has returned from injury for Boston College. Miami is definitely the more talented team in this game, they just can not make stupid mistakes like they did against Virginia. Boston College received very good news when they found out running back AJ Dillon would be back for this game. Dillon has rushed for 140 yards or more in three of the five games he has played in. Miami might be the best defense Boston College has faced all year, so moving the ball on them will be tough. Quarterback Anthony Brown must be careful throwing against Miami’s defense that had three interceptions last week. This game will end up coming down to who’s offense can move the ball better and capitalize on their opportunities to score.

Prediction:

Boston College gets the upset 24-21.

Clemson at Florida State

Analysis:

Clemson proved their worth last week after dismantling North Carolina State 41-7 last week. Freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence had his best game of the season with 308 passing yards. Clemson’s defense has a dominant performance, holding North Carolina State to just four yards per pass attempt. Their defensive line will look to pray on a weak Florida State offensive line. Their defensive line will need to slow down power back Cam Akers. Clemson running back Travis Etienne will need to have a better performance than he did last week as well. After playing a close game with Miami, then soundly beating Wake Forest, Florida State is finally looking to find themselves. Deondre Francois threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns, to go with a pretty efficient day. Cam Akers has 98 rushing yards on 13 carries with two touchdowns. Their defensive line had five sacks on the day. This game against Clemson will be the game for them to make their mark. To win this game, or even play it close, will have many people forget their early season woes. The biggest thing for Florida State will be to at least somewhat contain Clemson’s monstrous defensive line. Their offensive line will have a tough task, but it is imperative if they want to come out with a win. Cam Akers, as a powerful runner able to withstand hits, is a good running back to match up with this defensive line, but he will need some blocking. Florida State should also try to slow down Clemson’s rushing attack and force a freshman quarterback to beat them.

Prediction:

Clemson dominates 35-14. Florida State struggles heavily on offense.

Wisconsin at Northwestern

Analysis:

The winner of this game will be put in the drivers seat of the Big 10 West. Wisconsin’s 49-20 win over Illinois was good, but has far from erased the embarrassment of their loss to Michigan in week 7. Against Illinois, Wisconsin had two 100 yards rushers with Jonathan Taylor getting 159 yards and 111 yards for Taiwan Deal. What worries me about Wisconsin is Alex Hornibrook playing against a good team in a tough environment. Hornibrook has thrown four interceptions in Wisconsin’s last two games. That will need to improve if Wisconsin wants to win this game. Northwestern’s last two games have consisted of them gutting out wins against bad teams. They just beat Rutgers and Nebraska by a combined six points. Northwestern was saved against Nebraska by a great performance from quarterback Clayton Thorson as he threw for 455 yards and overcame a bad day running the ball. Against Rutgers, they were led by running back Isaiah Bowser’s 108 rushing yards and won despite a mediocre game from Thorson. Northwestern needs good play from both the running and passing game. They also need to find a way to at least make things harder for Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor.

Prediction:

Wisconsin grinds out the win 28-24.

Purdue at Michigan State

Analysis:

This game features two teams that are going into this game with two very different mindsets. Purdue is coming off the biggest win for their program in recent memory. Purdue defeated second ranked Ohio State 49-20 in a truly dominant all around performance. David Blough had 378 yards passing with three touchdowns, DJ Knox ran for 128 yards and three touchdowns, and Rondale Moore (who should have gone to Texas) had 170 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Markus Bailey had 15 total tackles and a pick six, and Kenneth Major had twelve total tackles. Purdue just needs to have a good offensive performance and find yards when they can. Michigan State has a very stout defense that can slow down almost anyone. If Purdue can put up around 21 points, victory should be sealed. Michigan State goes in to this game likely not quite as jubilant as Purdue. Michigan State fell to Michigan 21-7 in high strung rivalry game. Michigan State needs a better day on offense this week. Just seven out of 28 total pass attempts were completed for Michigan State against Michigan for less than three yards per attempt. Michigan State’s leading rusher had just 25 yards on the ground. Someone has to get going for Michigan State. With star receiver Felton Davis likely not playing, quarterback Brian Lewerke and running backs LJ Scott and LaDarius Jefferson need to step up or this game will be ugly.

Prediction:

Purdue wins the game 24-16.

Iowa at Penn State

Analysis:

This quasi rivalry has recently been dominated by Penn State, but has had its share of close matchups. Penn State seems to still be suffering from playing down to their opponents (as a fan of a team coached by Tom Herman, I can easily diagnose this) after they beat an average at best Indiana team 33-28. In their last couple of games, Trace McSorley has been just decent throwing the ball, and far from what has been expected from him. Fortunately, McSorley has made up for this with his prowess running the ball. Running the ball with McSorley and Miles Sanders has been the most reliable form of offense for the Nittany Lions recently. Defensively, they helped out against Indiana by four sacks from Shaka Toney and two sacks from Yetur Gross-Matos. If their defensive line can play like this in the run game against Iowa, then the path to victory will be a whole lot easier to cross. Iowa is coming off of a 23-0 win over Maryland where they dominated time of possession to get the win. Nate Stanley did not have the best day throwing the ball, but their running game made up for it. Stanley likely needs a better day throwing the ball, and Penn State’s offense will be harder to keep up with than Maryland’s in terms of scoring. Iowa will need to slow down Penn State’s rushing attack. They had success doing this against Maryland, allowing just 68 rushing yards, but Penn State’s offense in much more high powered.

Prediction:

Penn State playing down to their opponents comes back and bites them as Iowa wins 27-23.

Florida vs Georgia

Analysis:

This is probably the featured game of the weekend and the game with the biggest postseason implications. Georgia is coming off of a much needed bye week after getting thrashed by LSU in week 7. Jake Fromm struggled at quarterback, and Georgia’s rushing attack did little to help him out. LSU’s offense was also able to grind apart Georgia’s defense as they took advantage of good field position. In Georgia’s loss, LSU carried the ball for 5.6 yards per attempt. Georgia’s defense will again be facing an emerging rushing attack from Florida, and needs to contain it. If Florida is put in a position where quarterback Feleipe Franks is relied upon to win the game, it will be good for Georgia. Georgia will need a good game from the offensive line, as the play against a defensive line that does very well at getting to the quarterback. Florida is coming off of a bye, but in a much different mood that Georgia. Florida has been surging after their early loss to Kentucky. In their last game against Vanderbilt, Florida saw running backs Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett both rush for over 100 yards. Feleipe Franks threw for nearly 10 yards per attempt. This team is on the rise, and is finally making use of their talent. One key to the game for Florida will be to get to the quarterback, and create pressure. Jake Fromm struggled mightily when LSU’s defense was able to pressure him, and Florida should hope to do the same with their defensive line led by Jachai Polite. Florida also needs to find at least one semi productive outlet of offense. Their running game is the likely source, but they will need to move the ball at least some against a stout Georgia defense. This game will be intense as it is a rivalry, and the loser is definitely out of playoff contention while the winner still has a chance.

Prediction:

Georgia wins it 31-24 in a very tight game. Jake Fromm redeems himself.

Kentucky at Missouri

Analysis:

Missouri ended a three game skid last week by defeating Memphis 65-33. Missouri’s offense was firing on all cylinders as they had 48 points by halftime. Drew Lock three for 350 yards and 12 yards per attempt. Running back Larry Rountree III had 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam had 159 receiving yards. Every facet of Missouri’s offense played well. Unfortunately, they play a much tougher defense with Kentucky. Missouri will need Lock to have a big game. If Lock can pick apart Kentucky’s defense, winning this game will be no problem, and it will be very tough if he can not. Defensively, Missouri needs to find a way to stuff, or at least slow down Benny Snell and Kentucky’s run game. Kentucky is coming into this game after the ugliest of ugly wins over Vanderbilt. Kentucky was led by 169 rushing yards from Benny Snell, and Josh Allen being an absolute beast on defense. Allen has with total tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble that killed a late Vanderbilt drive. Allen will be relied upon to get a pass rush on Drew Lock, something that can pave the way for a Kentucky victory if done well. Missouri’s offensive line did not give up a sack last week, but Kentucky’s defensive line will test them more than Memphis’s did.

Prediction:

Kentucky wins 24-21. Kentucky has the best unit in the game, with their defense, and the best offensive weapon. The combination of those two things will lead them to victory.

South Florida at Houston

Analysis:

South Florida has yet another win narrow escape last week as they defeated Connecticut 38-30. South Florida was led by two running backs surpassing 100 rushing yards. Johnny Ford had 163 yards, and Jordan Cronkrite had 103 yards. Blake Barnett threw two interceptions, but had 343 yards of total offense. Defensively, South Florida struggles to stop the run as they allowed 322 rushing yards. Houston also has a very good offense. South Florida will also have to find someway to contain Ed Oliver. Oliver is one of the most dominant players in college football, and few teams in the AAC have the ammunition on their offensive line to contain him. Houston is coming off of an explosive day on offense as they racked up 49 points on Navy. D’Eriq King is a quarterback that must be accounted for at all times by opposing defenses at all times as he had 413 passing yards, and was Houston’s leading rusher. King had four total touchdowns on the day. Houston had three receivers with over 100 yards receiving on the day, so King does very well at spreading the ball around. Saturday was also one of the rare times Ed Oliver was not the player that stuck out on Houston’s defense. Linebacker Austin Robinson had 21 total tackles and two sacks. This game will likely come down to what team can get more stops. This is primed to be a shootout.

Prediction:

Houston wins in an offensive duel 41-38.

Texas A&M at Mississippi State

Analysis:

Texas A&M comes into this game fresh off of a bye week. Their most recent game saw them beat South Carolina 26-23. On offense, they were led by Kellen Mond throwing for 353 yards. Tight end Jace Sternberger put up 145 yards receiving, and Quartney Davis had 127 receiving yards of his own. Texas A&M will need a good day out of their offensive line, as they play a stellar defensive line from Mississippi State. Their own defensive line will also need a good game as Mississippi State prides itself (or does it because they have no other option) on running the ball. Forcing Nick Fitzgerald to try and beat them with his arm will likely lead to success for the Aggies. Mississippi State is coming off of a loss to LSU where they just could not overcome LSU’s talent advantage. This week, head coach Joe Moorhead announced that backup quarterback Keytaon Thompson would have the chance to play some against Texas A&M. This new wrinkle will leave Texas A&M with more to prepare for. While Nick Fitzgerald can run the ball extremely well, his woes in the passing game were in full display against LSU. Fitzgerald’s regression is quite puzzling to me. Since last year (obviously I am not using cumulative stats, and just percentage based stats) Fitzgerald has gone down in passer rating, completion percentage, and ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. The biggest thing to point to is loss of surrounding talent, but Mississippi State did not really have any star receivers in 2017. This regression is just perplexing to me. Defensively, Mississippi State will look for another big day from their defensive line. This game will likely hinge upon which team can run the ball more effectively.

Prediction:

Mississippi State gets a gritty win 20-17.

Washington State at Stanford

Analysis:

Washington State is just coming off of possibly the biggest win in program history on Saturday. In College GameDay’s first trip to Pullman, they were able to hold off Oregon for a 34-20 win. Gardner Minshew had a good day throwing the ball with 323 passing yards and four touchdowns. Minshew spread the ball around well too as Washington State had nine players with at least one catch. Washington State was also able to hold Justin Herbert to an uncharacteristically low completion percentage and kept him from winning the game for Oregon. They held Oregon to just 65 rushing yards, and under three yards per carry. Washington State will have to have another good day from their run defense, as they play against Bryce Love. Love has been banged up, and may not be at 100% for this game, but teams do have to prepare for him. Stanford comes into this game off of an ugly win at Arizona State, where Stanford benefited from poor clock management from the Sun Devils. While Arizona State had big numbers in terms of yardage, Stanford only held them to 13 points. Stanford won behind a very efficient day from KJ Costello as he completed 76% of his passes. The keys to the game for Stanford will be to have a good day defending the pass. Washington State has many different receivers they use, so Stanford needs all of their corners to do their job in coverage. They also need some reliable form of offense in order to keep up with Washington State, as it will be hard to totally shut down Washington State’s offense. Bryce Love is the likely candidate, but his lack of full health is concerning.

Prediction:

Washington State keeps rolling as they win a close game 31-27.

Texas at Oklahoma State

Analysis:

This game features two teams are coming off much needed bye weeks. Oklahoma State’s last game saw them lose to Kansas State 31-12 as Kansas State ran all over the Cowboys’s defense. This bye week was likely used to allowOklahoma State to regroup after losing three of their last four games. In the last four games, the ineptitude of their defense has been on display in some manner. Oklahoma State. If they want to win this game against Texas, they will need their defense to improve upon their recent form. They will also need running back Justice Hill to have a good day, as I do not think they should trust Taylor Cornelius to throw at Texas’s secondary. Texas needed their bye week last week so they could get quarterback Sam Ehlinger back to full health, as he has recovered from his shoulder injury and is expected to play Saturday. Ehlinger has shown great improvement this season, and the Longhorns are much better when he is on the field. Texas will probably need their running backs to take a bigger workload this week to ease the pressure off of Ehlinger, who likely is not at 100%. Texas should be able to easily run on Oklahoma State’s defense as Kansas State and Iowa State have. Defensively, Texas needs their secondary to have a good day against Oklahoma State’s pass happy offense. My biggest concern for Texas is still their propensity to play down to the level of their opponent. They always get hyped up for big games, but against teams that are not considered to be as good, they rarely bring out their best.

Prediction:

Texas gets the win 34-27 as Oklahoma State hangs around for a bit too long.

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