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By Jeff Goldman | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

New Jersey could get some nasty weather Tuesday afternoon and evening as severe storms could drop as much as 3 inches of rain on parts of the state, trigger flooding and include thunderstorms that could lead to power outages.

A flash flood watch is in effect for most of the state from 4 p.m to 2 a.m., the National Weather Service said.

UPDATE (2 p.m.): A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all 21 counties in New Jersey, along with New York City and Long Island. That means conditions are favorable for strong or severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The watch is effective through 11 p.m.

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While those areas are at the greatest risk for flash flooding, the northwestern part of the state has the best chance to see numerous severe thunderstorms. Tree damage and power outages are possible across most of the state until the strongest of the storms wind down around midnight.

Large hail is also possible and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out, the weather service's morning forecast discussion notes.

Urban areas and areas with poor drainage are most likely to experience flash flooding on Tuesday. Along the ocean, tides are expected to increase during the week so flooding will be a concern along the Jersey Shore within the next few days.

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Updated map (1 p.m. Tuesday): Most of the northern half of New Jersey now has an "enhanced" risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The state's northwestern region now has a "moderate" risk, one of the highest on the threat scale.

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Damaging wind gusts

Even if no tornadoes develop, some of the thunderstorms that hit New Jersey on Tuesday are expected to pack powerful wind gusts as strong as 50 to 60 mph, said Trent Davis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s regional forecast office in Mount Holly.

"The main impact for areas north of Trenton will probably be the damaging winds," Davis said.

People in New Jersey could also face heavy downpours and possible flash flooding from these storms.

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Volatile atmosphere

Several key ingredients are coming together to produce Tuesday’s wave of strong thunderstorms. A strong low-pressure system up in Canada is pushing cold air from the north into warm air from the south, helping to lift the air and create instability in the atmosphere, Davis said.

A substantial amount of wind shear in northern New Jersey will help the thunderstorms organize and form into a diagonal squall line that’s expected to move from the northwestern counties to the southeastern counties, Davis said.

If the air temperature rises up into the mid-80s, as is expected in southern New Jersey Tuesday afternoon, that could create more instability and help to strengthen some of the storms, Davis said.

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N.J. county asks residents to restrict water use as summer drought concerns loom

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National Weather Service

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Tuesday also be a very warm day with highs climbing into the upper 80s.

While Tuesday might be the wettest day of the week, the rain isn't over by a long shot. There's a chance of showers or thunderstorms through at least Monday as we deal with an extended stretch of unsettled weather, forecasters say.

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National Weather Service

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Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected just in time for the evening rush hour today. These thunderstorms will have the potential to produce intense downpours, hail, frequent lightning, wind gusts over 60 mph, and isolated tornadoes. pic.twitter.com/Z3NJtR7aQ3 — NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) May 15, 2018

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Accuweather

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The rest of the week won't be nearly as hot. Highs should be in the upper 60s on Wednesday, the mid 70s on Thursday and the mid 60s on Friday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s.

If there's good news, it's that high pressure will increase after Monday and lead to drier weather pattern next week.

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Strong Gusty Thunderstorms Later Today, Damaging 50mph Winds, Hail and Flooding Rain, Cooler Tomorrow With Showers, The Best Day of the Next Seven Will Be Thursday! pic.twitter.com/PVLhounKzb — Bill Evans (@Evansweather) May 15, 2018

7-day forecast

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Accuweather

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NJ Advance Media staff writer Len Melisurgo contributed to this report. Jeff Goldman may be reached at jeff_goldman@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JeffSGoldman. Find NJ.com on Facebook.