Thanks to the polling gurus at Real Clear Politics, we can compare how Trump and Cruz fare in head to head match-ups. Here's Trump:

And here's Cruz:

Cruz is clearly the stronger of the two candidates in a match-up against Clinton. While he trails her, it's by three points as opposed to the 8.5 point deficit for Trump. And, unlike Trump, Cruz actually has led Clinton in head-to-head polls -- albeit during a relatively brief period earlier this year.

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Those polling charts, of course, capture the state of the race today -- a race that hasn't truly engaged in any meaningful way just yet. Things can and do change!

Trump has insisted that once he gets started on Clinton -- which he says he has not yet done -- then the numbers will immediately begin to move in his direction. Given what Trump has done in the race so far, I'm not ready to say he's wrong about that, although his poll numbers among some key demographic groups -- married women, for one -- suggest his road to competitiveness against Clinton is more difficult than he seems to think.

My point is simple: As of today, Cruz has a better chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the fall election than does Trump. Judging by the polling data, that's impossible to argue. Now, how much better a chance it is -- 10 percent? 20? -- and whether Cruz could actually beat Clinton is harder to know.

Now ask yourself: Where does Cruz win that Romney didn't? Maybe Colorado? Ohio? Florida? All possible. None probable.