Governments are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C and 120% more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

To estimate the production gap, this report puts forward a method analogous to that used in the Emissions Gap Report. It uses publicly available data to estimate the difference between what countries are planning and what would be consistent with 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, based on scenarios from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. In aggregate, countries’ planned fossil fuel production by 2030 will lead to the emission of 39 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (GtCO 2 ). That is 13 GtCO 2 , or 53%, more than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway, and 21 GtCO 2 (120%) more than would be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway. This gap widens significantly by 2040.