The leaders’ debates are by far the most-watched events of any federal election campaign, and a lot of procedural and strategic considerations go into deciding who should take part. We know who has to be there — Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau. But what about the leaders of the two smaller federal parties — Elizabeth May for the Greens and Mario Beaulieu for the Bloc Québécois? Should they get podiums of their own?

Ms. May was allowed into the 2008 debate when her party held a single seat in Parliament, but was barred from participating in the 2011 debate. This time, her party controls two seats — but she’s tied with the Bloc Québécois and the newly-formed Forces et Démocratie and the television network consortium that makes the final decision may not wish to “clutter” the debate room. The consortium has no clear-cut rules on who participates, so the question is still very much up in the air. But what do Canadians think?

First off, let’s consider the size of Ms. May’s constituency. Unlike the case in 2011, when the Green Party had faded from its 2008 performance of capturing 6.7 per cent of the vote, the Greens are doing quite well in our recent polling of voter intentions. The party consistently receives the support of eight to ten per cent of Canadians.

A caveat: Green Party support tends to be overstated in public opinion polls. This is largely because much of their support — more than two-fifths, in fact — comes voters under age 35, a group that routinely fails to actually show up and cast a ballot on Election Day. Even assuming Green support is overstated, however, projecting the results onto an eligible voter population of approximately 24 million translates to more than a million votes. Furthermore, the Green vote now says it’s more likely to vote than in the past.

At 47 points, Ms. May is statistically tied with Mulcair for the title of Canada’s most respected leader. Regionally, she is well-liked in British Columbia, Ontario and Atlantic Canada, although her standing in Quebec leaves something to be desired. Nevertheless, her Quebec-only approval ratings eclipse that of the Bloc Québécois leader; Mr. Beaulieu is widely viewed with disapproval by those who’ve heard of him. Ms. May is well-respected within the Liberal and NDP constituencies, although Conservative and Bloc Québécois supporters hold a more disparaging view.

Our tracking reveals that Elizabeth May is slowly becoming a household name. In 2009, one-third of Canadians did not feel able to express an opinion about her one way or another. Today, just 15 per cent are uncertain and her approval and disapproval ratings have both grown by similar margins.

Finally, we recently asked Canadians whether they believe May should participate in the leaders’ debates. By a margin of nearly three to one (68 per cent to 24 per cent), Canadians feel she should be allowed in. Most striking is the fact that this view is shared by Canadians of every political stripe — with majorities of each party’s supporters backing May’s participation in any 2015 federal election debates.

These results contrast sharply with those for Mr. Beaulieu; despite the fact that the Bloc holds as many seats as the Green Party, Canadians seem quite indifferent to the idea of his participation in the debates. In fact, a full 48 per cent of Canadians say Mr. Beaulieu should not be allowed to attend.

We make no attempt to judge the merits of allowing Elizabeth May to participate in a leaders’ debate. But the public has made up its mind; Canadians broadly see her as a strong leader and believe she should have a seat at the table.

Frank Graves is founder and president of EKOS Polling.

Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are March 11-17, 2015. In total, a random sample of 3,832 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.