Aug 14, 2017

Senior Israeli Cabinet ministers refer to the US-Russia deal on Syria as a strategic failure of the highest level. One minister told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “The United States threw Israel under the bus for the second time in a row. The first time was the nuclear agreement with Iran, the second time is now that the United States ignores the fact that Iran is obtaining territorial continuity to the Mediterranean Sea and Israel’s northern border. What is most worrisome is that this time, it was President Donald Trump who threw us to the four winds — though viewed as Israel’s great friend. It turns out that when it comes to actions and not just talk, he didn’t deliver the goods.”

Yossi Cohen, the head of the Israeli Mossad, painted a dismal forecast at a meeting of the government Aug. 13. “The region is changing to our detriment,” he told the ministers, noting that Iran has experienced economic growth since the signing of the agreement. According to Cohen, there is a presence in the region not only of Iran and Hezbollah, but also numerous Shiite forces from all over the world that are rushing to the region. This constitutes an expansion trend that must be a cause of concern.

On the same evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added fuel to the fire when he said, “I'll give you a summary in one sentence — the Islamic State [IS] is exiting, Iran is coming in. … Our policy is clear: We firmly oppose the military buildup of Iran and its proxies — primarily Hezbollah — in Syria. And we will do whatever it takes to protect Israel's security."

While he was talking, a news item was leaked to the media: Netanyahu was promoting a law that would allow him to declare war without authorization of the government or the Cabinet. It is not clear if the Knesset would authorize such a law, but the effect on the region of this publication is crystal clear: An Israeli attack on Iranian or Hezbollah infrastructures in Lebanon or in Syria would mean all-out, open war between the sides. Netanyahu wants to have sole authority to approve such an assault. This is another development in the war of nerves that has been waged in the area for some time. To many international observers, this is reminiscent of Israel’s threat regarding Iranian nuclear activity that led to intensification of the international sanctions imposed on Iran and, ultimately, to the nuclear agreement itself.

A high-level Cabinet minister explained on condition of anonymity Israel’s concern. The minister told Al-Monitor, “Ever since the onset of the war in Syria, Hezbollah has become more independent and does not defer automatically to Iranian authority as in the past. This is the direct result of the fact that Hezbollah bore most of the combat burden in Syria, paid the highest blood price and invested its main forces in the struggle. [Iran's Supreme Leader] Ayatollah [Ali] Khamenei wants Iranian power on Israel’s border fence and he wants direct Iranian might — without middlemen. In the emerging reality, the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guard Corps will soon have accessibility to environs close to Israel. This has tremendous strategic significance and constitutes a dramatic game changer in the region.”