The fourth and final Grand Slam of the year is fast approaching and both tours boast compelling scenarios in the race for the World No.1 ranking. On the ATP tour, World No. 1 Rafael Nadal will try to fend off the resistance from Roger Federer and Andy Murray, who will both be looking to regain the ranking by the end of the fortnight in Flushing Meadows.

Djokovic and Wawrinka are missing, but that lifts the rest of the field

The ATP is in a very good place. The two finalists from the 2016 US Open final, Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka, have both called it quits for the rest of the season, so that has enabled the introduction and the emergence of some promising stars on tour, but it also leaves the door open for the likes of Djokovic and Wawrinka to climb back to the top of their respective games in the 2018 season. There are many stories to be told on the ATP tour, which is what we always like to see and hear leading into the biggest tournaments of the season.

The Race for World No.1 at the US Open is heating up

The US Open scenarios for the race to the World No. 1 ranking are fairly simple. If one of Nadal, Murray, or Federer end up winning the title in Flushing, then they would automatically take the No. 1 ranking regardless of how the other two rivals fare during the fortnight. The situations become a bit trickier if none of the three manage to pick up the title, which is looking unlikely given how tough it has been for other players to break into the elite group of Grand Slam winners over recent years. Murray is defending the most points out of the three, having made the quarterfinals last year. Nadal made the fourth round, losing to Lucas Pouille, while Roger Federer is in the most comfortable position as he didn’t play the event last year, which means he can only gain points over the two weeks.

I think that changes everything from a mental standpoint. When you compare the position that Nadal is going to be in in comparison to Federer, it is a considerable difference. Nadal is looking over his shoulder as Federer lurks in the darkness. Federer can swing freely, knowing that this is a tournament he’s already won five times and he has already had a successful season winning the two Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, so he really can swing with reckless abandon. For Nadal, now that he has claimed the World No. 1 ranking, he will not want to let go of it. The feeling of defending something is completely the opposite to the position that the Swiss man is in. Even though the 180 points that Nadal is defending is less than the lead he has over Federer in the rankings (500 points), the feeling of having nothing to defend is still different than that of defending a result.

Murray is a big outsider. He won the title back in 2012, but it is not a Grand Slam that he has always played well at. He has suffered some pretty bad losses over the years in matches that he really should have won. The interesting things about the three-time Grand Slam winner are, firstly how his hip is feeling and secondly, how he plays now that he is no longer the World No. 1 player. Will we see a much more carefree character or will we see more of what we’ve got used to during his stint as World No. 1 for those 41 weeks? I don’t think Murray will necessarily have the same expectations as Nadal or Federer for the Open, but as I always try to say, you can never count out one of these champions, even if Murray has played no lead-up events in the preparation for this year’s US Open.

The last two points I’d like to make are about who I think will be the World No. 1 by the end of the US Open and what Rafael Nadal getting back to World No. 1 means for the sport and for many longtime avid tennis fans.

Nadal last held the World No. 1 ranking in July of 2014, three years ago, and he first won the top spot ranking in August of 2008. Nadal’s resurgence and ascension back to the top of the rankings not only signals the immense longevity of the man, but it also sends out a significant message that a player can go through the lowest of the lows, experience the greatest of adversity, suffer from some serious injuries, lose all their confidence, but there is always that chance that if you stick at it then anything is possible. Nadal won his first-ever Major at the French Open at the age of 19 and is still winning, still persevering, still trying to improve twelve years later–but the remarkable thing about the likes of Nadal and Federer is the hunger to win and the determination to keep excelling, not just at any level, but at the highest level of our sport. It truly is admirable to see from both Nadal and Federer, who are two players that transcend our sport.

Federer is the favourite heading into the US Open

I think Federer will go in as favourite for this Grand Slam. Even with his noted back problems, I think that the two weeks rest following the Montreal final will help him enormously and I also think that Federer manages his matches well during Grand Slams, particularly in the early rounds, which ultimately benefit him in the latter matches of the Majors. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Swiss win his third Major of the year, but I hope that the race to the World No. 1 ranking goes down to the wire, which would be an incredible thing to witness for certain.