Jon B. Wolfsthal

Opinion contributor

Iran is now closer to being able to build a nuclear weapon than at any point under the Trump administration, according to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. For the first time in years, Tehran may have enough unrefined uranium to build a single nuclear weapon. And while no one can be certain, some estimates suggest Tehran may now be able to build a weapon in six months, if not less.

When President Donald Trump took office, Iran was more than one year away from being able to build a bomb. While there is no evidence that Iran’s leaders have made the decision to actually build a weapon, the growth in Iran’s nuclear capabilities shows that Trump’s aggressive effort to force Iran to abandon its entire nuclear program has failed — badly. Iran’s new nuclear status is a direct result of his decisions to withdraw from a 2015 deal that heavily restricted Iran’s nuclear capabilities and instead pursue a policy of confrontation and escalation.

Just as concerning as Iran’s growing stockpile of uranium, the new IAEA reports show Iran is resisting requests to access certain facilities it may have used in its past weapon programs. While the direction of Iran’s nuclear actions is a concern, the critical mission now is to ensure that Iran continues to fully comply with its obligations to provide timely access to sites chosen by the IAEA.

Access to Iran nuclear sites is key

Access is key, in some ways even more than the amount of material Iran has or where it is located. Ensuring that Iran complies with its obligations will take more than US threats and sanctions, it will take concerted, coordinated and unified diplomacy — something in short supply from the Trump Administration. But despite other pressing concerns, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the risk of a global recession, now is the time that President Trump’s choices on Iran come due.

There is still some hope that European leaders, along with Russia and China, will put enough pressure on Iran to comply with its inspection obligations. America must be a constructive part of such efforts. Should they fail, then the risks grow that Iran will move even closer to a nuclear breakout. And that will prod states like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and even Egypt to follow suit, creating a nuclear wave in the Middle East with unpredictable consequences.

Of course, as in the past, some will urge the United States to consider force to block Iran’s nuclear options, or to simply unseat the current regime. Any such suggestions make solving the problem of access harder and should be resoundingly rejected. If other countries believe the United States will use the access issue to justify a military strike, they will back even further away from working with Washington.

On the other hand, if the Trump administration rules out military force, then there remain real negotiating options. All of them, however, require Trump to do the impossible — acknowledge his efforts have failed and change course. A refusal to do so means he alone will be responsible for the consequences.

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Why take the use of force off the table? Because even if there were support for expanding the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, there is no military option short of invasion and occupation that could prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon should it choose to do so. Just as in 2015, the only solution is to find a set of conditions that ensure Iran does not want or need a nuclear weapon, and gives the United States and its partners confidence that it will stay that way.

Trump sees Iran as a power test

This, in essence, is the fatal flaw in Trump's approach. It was never enough that Iran had good reason to remain non-nuclear — economic incentives and a gradual end to its global isolation. For this president, imposing terms on Iran, including and even beyond terms that had been rejected for decades, such as stopping uranium enrichment, became a test of his power and authority. The prospects and consequences of failure were irrelevant to a president who compulsively blames others and routinely ignores the consequences of such failures. Perhaps in the business world, bankruptcy lets people off the hook. But in the world of nuclear proliferation, failure has dangerous consequences that often last forever.

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For better or worse, Iran is close to repeating a past mistake that gives both America and its allies an opening. Denying access to facilities in Iran is a violation of its basic treaty obligations. Even if Iran could argue that new sanctions give it the right to advance its own nuclear capabilities, few if any countries will be comfortable if Iran stonewalls legal and legitimate requests to access facilities. While the sites the IAEA has asked to visit have more to do with past nuclear activities than any current or future nuclear plans, Iran’s effort to roll back its transparency obligations is a challenge to the very nature of verification and binding international agreements.

If handled right, the Trump administration can preserve a critical tool to holding Iran’s nuclear potential in check — access. If, however, administration forces bent on a renewed confrontation with Iran gain the upper hand, the entire world better buckle up.

Jon B. Wolfsthal, director of the Nuclear Crisis Group and senior adviser to Global Zero, was senior director for arms control and non-proliferation at the National Security Council when the Iran nuclear deal was completed. Follow him on Twitter: @JBWolfsthal