Verlander should get the nod

By Jerry Crasnick

ESPN.com

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Detroit manager Jim Leyland might not be down with the new-fangled baseball metrics, but he's won 1,769 games, three pennants and a World Series while subscribing to the notion that players perform best in their comfort zones. That's a roundabout way to say he should start Justin Verlander in the Tigers' opening game of the 2013 playoffs.

The numbers substantiate that Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez are both having better seasons. But Verlander is having a down year only by his exacting standards. Even though his velocity has dipped and his massive pre-2013 workload might be taking a toll, he still ranks fifth in the American League with 207 strikeouts and 10th among starters with a 4.2 WAR. And his 21 quality starts match the output for Felix Hernandez and Yu Darvish this season.

Think Verlander has trouble dialing it up and dominating an opposing lineup? Just ask the Pirates, who struck out 13 times in seven innings against him. Or the Blue Jays, who managed three hits over seven innings with a lineup that featured Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Or the Indians, who cuffed him around in two April encounters, then scored one run in 15 innings against him in August and September.

Or check with the A's, who might be Detroit's Division Series opponent. Verlander posted a 2-0 record and a 0.56 ERA against essentially the same Oakland lineup in the first round last year -- and pitched a complete-game shutout in the series finale. Are we all suffering from short-term memory loss?

Verlander knows what it means to go into a hostile environment and win. He also has the competitive DNA to take it personally when skeptics say he should give way to Scherzer or (as the MLB Network's Brian Kenny has suggested) move to the bullpen in October. Verlander has taken some lumps in the postseason. But he never takes the mound with a shred of doubt that he's going to win the game.

Think back to late March, when the Tigers gave Verlander a $180 million contract extension that will keep him in Detroit through 2019. They're not paying him all that money to ride shotgun, sing background vocals or pitch Game 2 in the playoffs. Leyland and general manager David Dombrowski are big on consistency and loyalty, and they value Verlander's track record and fortitude enough that they're not about to bail on him after a few rough patches.

In the end, Detroit's title chances will hinge more on Miguel Cabrera's health than the pitching sequence for Verlander and Scherzer (or Scherzer and Verlander). But with Cabrera hurting, the Tigers need the 2011 Cy Young Award winner and AL MVP to pitch well if they want to play deep into October. There's no better way for Leyland to show his faith in Verlander than to give him the ball in Game 1.