2016 NHL Draft: Why Clayton Keller Could be a Steal at #9

The Montreal Canadiens are in an interesting position in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. While the “Big Three” of Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Jesse Puljujarvi are far out of reach, there is second tier of quality prospects. It’s tough to imagine a circumstance in which one of the second tier of talented forwards–Matthew Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Alexander Nylander–falls to Montreal, but that may very well work out in their favour.

Why? Clayton Keller. Keller is arguably the most skilled forward outside of the “Big Three,” and could very well be available at number nine.

Keller racks up the points. And he does this everywhere he goes. Since bantam, he always been his team’s top point producer, and with the USNTDP is among the very best of all-time. Only Auston Matthews has posted more points in a single season, while only Matthews and Phil Kessel have recorded a single season point-per-game clip higher. In fact, Keller’s 107 points and 1.73 points-per-game are both above Jack Eichel and Patrick Kane (although both of whom were in their draft-1 season), as well as James van Riemsdyk.

Last season, Keller was a key member in USA’s Gold Medal at the U18s as an underager. This season, Keller was named the tournament’s MVP, while contributing 14 points in 7 games. Against NCAA Division I competition, Keller recorded 1.75 points-per-game (worth mentioning that most schools do not dress their starter against the USNTDP), higher than his clip of 1.61 in the USHL.

Hockey players don’t come much more dynamic that Keller. The USNTDP runs through him. He doesn’t just control possession, he dominates it. It’s a common sight to see the trio of Joey Anderson, Keller, and Kieffer Bellows start their shift in their own zone and finish it with an extended period of offensive pressure, and Keller orchestrates this.

Almost every shift, Keller creates scoring chances. Combining ridiculously soft hands, incredible vision, and never-ending creativity, Keller set the single-season assist record at the USNTDP with 70. When I say incredible vision, I mean it. He routinely sets his linemates up with no-look passes, backdoor passes, passes through three players, and saucer passes that flutter perfectly over two sticks. Part of what makes him such a deadly passer isn’t just that he the vision to find opportunities, it’s that he has a tremendous technical passing ability. His backhand saucer pass is better than most players’ forehand saucer passes. He can distribute the puck from just about anywhere, and seemingly always puts the right amount of speed on his pass.

Additionally, Keller boasts the necessary complimentary tools to make him a lethal playmaker at the NHL level. If the incredible vision and technical ability aren’t enough, he continually showcases patience and awareness in order to find lanes. If no lane is available, Keller creates one. Incredible edge work, east-west agility, and first step acceleration allow him to create space and divert attention towards himself. His hands move just as rapidly as his feet, routinely confusing defenders and creating space. This all comes together to create a deadly playmaker that can turn nothing into a scoring chance.

Offence is in Keller’s nature. No matter the zone, no matter the situation, Keller is always look to fly up the ice to create scoring chances. This aggressive nature, along with his skill, makes Keller a constant threat, particularly on the forecheck. An extremely important part of Keller’s game is that he doesn’t spend much time in his own zone. Some games, the opposition seemingly fails to generate any semblance of a scoring chance when he is on the ice. However, as the level of hockey increases, Keller’s natural skill will not allow him to be quite as dominant of a possession player. His aggressive puck-hounding nature will have to evolve into more positional-based defence as he advances up the levels.

That’s not to say that Keller’s focus should be on defence, if anything it should be on continuing to improve his own skill level. He has a tendency to force plays and carry the puck for too long, leading to unnecessary turnovers. The simpler play is often more effective, especially with regards to Keller.

Goalscoring doesn’t come quite as naturally to Keller as playmaking does, but he’s certainly quite good at it. Where Keller scores his goals is around the net. He’s an excellent balance of combativeness and sneakiness, with hand-eye coordination and stickhandling that allow him to pounce on loose pucks or dangle the goaltender. He’s not necessarily a long-range threat, in fact, one area that he will have to improve is his shot power. He has a tendency to simply “fling” the puck instead of getting a quality shot. However, he possesses a deceptive release, that often sees his blade open the middle of the ice with the puck suddenly flying toward goal.

If size is a concern, it probably shouldn’t be. The energetic centre shows no hesitation getting physically involved. In fact, he performs quite admirably in battles, often coming out with the puck. Once again, as he moves up the levels he will need to improve his strength and body positioning, but there is also a skill component to winning battles, which he excels at.

While Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, and Alex Nylander seems locked the be the fourth, fifth, and sixth forwards selected on draft day, Keller deserves to be in that discussion. His skill level is on par and I do not see any major negatives from his game.

There are legitimate arguments to be made all four ways. Dubois is a powerful player, with excellent offensive and defensive upside; Tkachuk has high-end hockey sense and skill combined with his fierce demeanor; Nylander is a supremely skilled winger who equally lethal at scoring as he is at playmaking; while Keller combines elite playmaking, elusiveness, and skating to be a top-flight offensive talent.

Considering Keller’s high-end talent, I believe that Keller could turn out to be an incredible pick for the Canadiens at ninth overall if available. It’s rare to find high-end talent in a draft outside the top-five, and if there’s a player that fits that description, it’s Keller.