



With less than two weeks before the opening race in Melbourne, we take a look at the preseason testing data to predict the 2020 Formula 1 pecking order.





















Data and methodology





In simple terms, a clean lap time in dry conditions is a function of a baseline lap time, a fuel correction, a tyre compound correction, a tyre degradation correction, and a normally distributed random variable:





(lap time) = (baseline lap time) + (fuel correction) + (tyre compound correction) + (tyre degradation correction) + (random disturbance)





We omit some complications, such as car setups, engine modes, evolution of track surface, interaction effects between fuel load and tyre degradation, changes in tyre temperature during race simulation stints as we cannot accurately measure them with public data.





The baseline lap time is the theoretical best time for a car, set on a fresh benchmark compound with minimal fuel. For preseason testing, this is the unknown parameter we want to estimate for every team to derive team rankings.





The fuel correction is a linear function, i.e. additional X kilograms of fuel load correspond to Y additional seconds to the baseline lap time due to extra weight. This function is the same for every team and depends on the initial fuel load and the number of laps since last refuelling.





For race simulation stints, the fuel load is known as the car is fuelled for the full race distance at the beginning of a stint. For shorter stints we assumed that at the end of a stint a car had at least 10 kg of fuel remaining. This corresponds to about 6 laps of fuel and a normal fuelling practice, because teams rarely run on fumes or overfuel the car in testing.





Fuel correction was measured with linear regressions based on recent F1 races in Spain. Because relevant technical regulations have not changed, all of these datasets produce similar results: one extra lap of fuel (about 1.7 kg) adds about 0.05 seconds per lap at this circuit.





The tyre compound correction is a set of constants that indicate the differences between fresh tyre compounds. Almost 90% of all lap times during testing were set on C2 and C3, so we limited further analysis to these compounds. We used C3 as the benchmark compound and assumed, based on 2019 Spanish GP, that fresh C2 is 0.5 seconds per lap slower than fresh C3.





The tyre degradation correction adjusts lap times for different rates of degradation over distance driven on a particular compound. Pirelli’s soft compounds (C4, C5) have steep tails at the beginning and at the end of tyre life with short linear section in between. Hard compounds (C1, C2) degrade almost linearly, with steeper slopes on circuits with high tyre degradation. The figure below is an example of implied tyre degradation curves for C2 and C3 compounds during 2019 Spanish GP.





Implied C2 and C3 tyre degradation curves during 2019 Spanish GP

Source: FIA (timing information), Pirelli (tyre compounds), RSC analysis. Implied tyre degradation curves are fractional polynomial functions fitted on actual race lap times, corrected for the effects of fuel load, dirty air, differences in car and driver performance, safety and virtual safety cars, driver errors, blue flag slowdowns and team orders. Benchmark for adjustments is Mercedes (Bottas) car with one lap of fuel.





We removed slow, drive-through, in and out laps from the dataset. Total dataset includes 6970 laps, 3079 of them are valid for further analysis. You can download the data on valid laps on our Databases page.





Results





Mercedes still has the best car. The six-times world champions 2020 car was quick and reliable. Mercedes run the most meaningful laps and was significantly faster than the rest. We estimate the gap to be about 0.5 seconds per lap to Red Bull and 0.9 seconds to Ferrari. With this gap Mercedes will be challenged on some circuits, but seventh constructor’s championship seems likely.





Average baseline lap times

Source: Formula 1 (timing information), RSC analysis.





Ferrari’s form is uncertain, but ahead of the midfield. Ferrari’s testing program was difficult to decipher this year. Both drivers run a lot of laps in short stints, and fuel corrections were unclear. Vettel did one race simulation stint on day 5, but it appeared to be driven to a delta. Only Leclerc’s race simulation on the final day looked somewhat representative. Overall, Ferrari seems to be comfortably ahead of the midfield and can be close to Red Bull, depending on the actual fuel loads and engine modes they used during this testing.





It seems that SF1000, just like 2019 SF90, will enjoy high-speed circuits. Ferrari is competitive on the first sector with the main straight, but 0.6 seconds slower than Mercedes in the final sector with low-speed corners.





Delta between average baseline times by sector, seconds

Source: Formula 1 (timing information), RSC analysis.





Red Bull has improved – likely contender for P2 in the championship. Red Bull has narrowed the gap to Mercedes compared to the last season. In 2019 preseason testing, Red Bull was about 0.7 seconds per lap slower; now the delta is down to 0.5 seconds per lap based on the overall sample.





However, Catalunya is one of the better tracks for Red Bull, so they should be further behind Mercedes in Australia and Bahrain at least. The best race simulation runs also look a bit worrying for Red Bull, as Verstappen on better track was only on par with Leclerc and far behind Hamilton.





Race simulations: Hamilton, Verstappen and Leclerc

Source: Formula 1 (timing and tyre information), RSC analysis. In and out laps are excluded. Laps are adjusted for fuel. Positive slope indicates the effect of tyre degradation.





Formula 1.5 has not caught up to the top 3 yet. In recent years, Formula 1 was effectively divided into two competitive classes: Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull in Formula 1 and everyone else in Formula 1.5. Unfortunately (and somewhat expectedly), this will not change this season. The best of the rest is still 1.5 seconds per lap behind Mercedes and 0.6-0.7 seconds behind Ferrari, which means that they will not compete for podiums in normal circumstances.





Renault, McLaren and Racing Point will fight for the best of the rest. The tightly contested midfield last season has separated into two groups – the upper midfield with Renault, McLaren and Racing Point and the lower midfield with Haas, Alfa Romeo and Alpha Tauri. Racing Point will need to develop their 2019 Mercedes design to keep up with Renault and McLaren throughout this season.





2020 cars will be the fastest in Formula 1 history. Another year of stable regulations brings more gains in average lap time speed. The lowest baseline lap time on C2 or C3 compounds is 1:15.389 by Hamilton, which is already 0.017 faster than P1 on C3 by Bottas in 2019 Spanish GP qualifying. In 2020 qualifying in Spain we can expect low 1:15, or 0.5% decrease in lap time compared to last year.





Top 10 baseline lap times on C2 and C3 during 2020 preseason testing

Source: Formula 1 (timing and tyre information), RSC analysis.