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1. Royce Lewis, SS

Hit Power SB Field Control 50/60 50/55 50 55/60 75

Background: Taking a similar career trajectory as fellow shortstop Carlos Correa. Lewis, like his counterpart, was selected with the opening pick in the draft a couple years ago. A product of JSerra Catholic High School, Lewis became just the third player chosen #1 overall by the Twins; the two others being future Hall of Famer – and recently retired – Joe Mauer and big league veteran right-hander Tim Belcher, who did not sign with the club after the being taken in 1983. Lewis, a spry 6-foot-2, 188-pound shortstop born in Aliso Viejo, California, made an instant impact after signing with the franchise; he would split his debut between the club’s Gulf Coast League and Midwest Leagues affiliates, slugging a healthy .279/.381/.407 with eight doubles, three triples, and four homeruns. He also swiped 18 bags in 21 attempts. Last season the then-19-year-old budding star found himself back with Cedar Rapid for the opening half of the year, hitting .315/.368/.485 with 32 extra-base hits in 75 contests. Minnesota bumped Lewis up to the Florida State League in mid-July and he would put together a solid .255/.327/.399 triple-slash line the remainder of the year. Overall, Lewis finished his sophomore season with an aggregate .292/.352/.451 mark, belting out 29 doubles, three triples, and 14 homeruns to go along with 28 stolen bases (in 36 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his yearly production topped the league average mark by 29%.

Analysis: Not quite as a potent at the plate as Houston’s Carlos Correa, but there are quite a few similarities. Lewis has – quietly – become of the best defenders in the minor leagues, saving nine runs above average over the course of his first 175 games. Offensively speaking, he’s a budding dynamo – the type of hitter that perches atop a team’s big league lineup for the duration of his career: plus speed, plus hit tool, above-average power, strong contact skills, and a decent eye at the plate. With respect to his production, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2018, here’s the list of 19-year-old hitters to post a 135 to 145 wRC+ mark in the Midwest League (min. 300 PA): Jose Ramirez, Jesse Winker, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Matt Davidson, Kyle Blanks, and – of course – Royce Lewis.

Continuing:

Among that group, here are those hitters that posted a sub-20% strikeout rate during their run in the Midwest League: Ramirez, Winker, and Lewis. And just for fun here are the wRC+ totals for the first two during their time in the big leagues: 123 (Ramirez) and 130 (Winker). That’s superstar territory, obviously.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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2. Alex Kirilloff, RF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 60 50/60 30 40/45 70+

Background: It wasn’t too long ago that the Twins were considered the envy of baseball as their minor league development engine sported the top two prospects in the game: Byron Buxton, who hasn’t quite figured it out at the big league level, and Miguel Sano, whose budding stardom was derailed by an awful 2018 campaign. Fast forward a couple of seasons and the Twinkies, thanks to some phenomenal drafting and developing, own two of the top young bats in the game – once again. Kirilloff, the 15th overall pick in the 2016 draft, missed the entire 2017 season thanks to Tommy John surgery, but came roaring back like a Tyrannosaurus Rex ripping through a Yugo. Minnesota sent the young right fielder to the Midwest League to begin his second professional season. But after slugging .333/.391/.607 across 65 games the club bumped him up to High Class A for the remainder of the year; he would hit a scorching .362/.393/.550 against the Florida State League. Kirilloff finished the year with an aggregate .348/.392/.578 with a minor league-leading 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark a staggering 72%, the fifth best showing all minor league hitters with at least 350 plate appearances.

Analysis: A higher offensive ceiling than teammate and fellow top prospect Royce Lewis. It can’t be stated enough that Kirilloff missed significant time – with a significant injury – and came back as one of the most lethal bats in all the minor leagues. Kirilloff combines his plus-power potential with an amazing ability to put the bat on the ball, leading to phenomenal contact rates. Couple that fact with a hit tool that should be above-average at its peak. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a future perennial All-Star. With respect to his work in High Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been 107 twenty-one-year-old hitters to receive at least 250 plate appearances in the Florida State League. Kirilloff’s 168 wRC+ total tops the group. In fact, here’s the list of 21-year-olds to post at least a 160 wRC+ in the FSL: Kirilloff, Austin Jackson, Christian Yelich, Jay Bruce, and Harold Ramirez.

Kirilloff’s defensive short comings will chew into his overall value. But his bat looks like it’s going to be special.

Ceiling: 5.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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3. Brusdar Graterol, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 80 50/55 60/70 55 55 70

Background: Very reminiscent of the club’s Top 3 prospects heading into the 2015 season. That list, of course, featured three potential future stars in Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and flame-throwing right-hander Jose Berrios. This year’s Top 3 features a tools-laden future superstar (Royce Lewis), a middle-of-the-lineup thumper (Alex Kirilloff), and a flame-throwing righty in Graterol. Signed out of Venezuela a couple years ago; Graterol’s Tommy John surgery – which knocked him out for the entirety of 2017 – looks like a distant nightmare at this point. The 6-foot-1, 180-pound hurler split last season between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, throwing a career best 102.0 innings, recording 107 strikeouts against just 28 walks. He finished the year with an aggregate 2.74 ERA and a 2.85 FIP. For his career, he’s averaging 9.9 strikeouts and just 2.5 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: It’s an embarrassment of riches at this point for the Twins of Minnesota. Graterol uncorks one of the easiest triple-digit, plus-plus fastballs in baseball – at any level. Blessed with the ability to reach as high as 101 mph, Graterol’s heater sits comfortably in the 97-99 mph range, showing little effort to do so. His slider, already a plus offering, has the potential to join the fastball as a plus-plus weapon. He’ll also mix in a workable changeup in the 93-mph range and a plus curveball. In term so of pure stuff/arsenal, Graterol’s is tops in the minors. He has the rare potential to ascend up towards true ace-dom.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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4. Trevor Larnach, RF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 45/50 30 50 55

Background: The California native’s high school awards and recognitions can rival any in recent memory: during his sophomore season he was named All-League and Second-Team All-State; earned First-Team All-State and First-Team All-League a year later; and named as a First-Team All-League, First-Team All-East Bay, and All-State during his final season at College Park High School. Larnach, who was a late-round flier of the Padres in 2015, looked overmatched in part-time action during his first season at Oregon State, one of college baseball’s premier powerhouses. Playing for long-time Manager Pat Casey, the 6-foot-4, 210-pound baby-faced teenager cobbled together a lowly .157/.271/.176 triple-slash line, belting out just one extra-base hit – a double – in nearly 60 trips to the plate. Despite the offensive woes, Larnach spent the ensuing summer squaring off against some of the top amateur pitchers in the nation while playing in the Cape Cod League. This time, though, he looked quite comfortable: in 24 games with the Falmouth Commodores, he batted .275/.402/.350 with three doubles and one homerun while displaying phenomenal plate discipline; he finished with a 21-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The toolsy corner outfielder was able to carry that momentum into his sophomore season for the Beavers, slugging a robust .303/.421/.429 with 16 doubles and a trio of long balls. And, of course, he spent that summer playing for the Commodores as well; he hit .308/.390/.442 with nine doubles, one triple, and one homerun. With the size that projects plenty of above-average power, Larnach’s bat provided significantly more punch in 2018 – in a career best 68 games, he slugged .348/.463/.652 with 19 doubles and 19 homeruns. Minnesota grabbed the 6-foot-4, 210-pound corner outfielder in the opening round last June, 20th overall, and signed him to well below-slot deal worth $2.25 million – just nearly $900,000 less than the slotted value. Larnach split his debut between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids, hitting a combined .303/.390/.500 with 13 doubles, one triple, and five homeruns in 42 games.

Analysis: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the Oregon State star heading into the draft last season:

“The quick and easy – and wrong – comparison to throw around would be former Beaver outfielder Michael Conforto. So let’s just take a brief comparison between their respective junior campaigns in college. Consider the following:

Player Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% Trevor Larnach 21 206 .339 .466 .673 16.02% 18.45% Michael Conforto 21 272 .345 .504 .547 20.22% 13.97%

Larnach, surprisingly, is flashing significantly more power – with less plate discipline – than Conforto, the eventual 10th overall pick in the 2014. So let’s approach it in a different way. With respect to his work in the Cape in 2017, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2016 only four Cape Cod League hitters batted between .290/.375/.425 and .325/.415/.460 with at least a 13% walk rate and a 15% strike out rate (min. 100 PA): David Coffey, J.D. Davis, Brian Snyder, and Jon Still.

Coffey, a late round pick of the Red Sox in 2003, struggled during his only professional season. Davis, a third round pick in 2011 by the Astros, was the 10th best prospect in the club’s system. Snyder, the 26th overall pick by the Athletics in 2003, petered out in Class AA. And Still was a fourth round pick by Boston, who also petered out in Class AA. Now let’s take a look at Larnach’s work in 2018 through a historical lens. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017 only one PAC 12 hitter batted at least .325/.450/.600 (min. 200 PA): former University of California backstop Brett Cumberland, a second round pick of the Braves in 2016.

In fact, let’s take it one step further:

Player Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% Trevor Larnach 21 206 .339 .466 .673 16.02% 18.45% Brett Cumberland 21 229 .344 .480 .678 16.59% 17.47%

Cumberland, for what it’s worth, has been an above-average offensive performer during his two-plus seasons of minor league action. As for Larnach, well, he showcases above-average power, perhaps peaking in the 20-homer territory, with a strong eye and the ability to consistently hit .300 – though I do worry a bit about his ability to make consistent contact. He looks like a better version of Pittsburgh’s Jordan Luplow, who I ranked as the club’s fifth best prospect [heading into 2018].”

I also pegged Larnach as a late first round/early second round talent. The bonus he received from the club was worth – roughly – the 30th pick in the first round.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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5. Jhoan Duran, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 65 50 45 50/55 50+

Background: Definitely not the Twins of yesteryear. The ones where they hoarded pinpoint accurate, savvy assassins with fastballs that a hitter could triple-clutch and still yank it foul. Minnesota’s front office did a fantastic job on the return for solid every infielder Eduardo Escobar, acquiring three prospects from the Diamondbacks last July. Headlined by Duran, the club also received Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad to complete the swap. Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic a couple years ago, the young fireballer spent the entirety of 2018 in the Midwest League – despite changing organizations. Duran made a career best 21 starts between Kane County and Cedar Rapids, throwing 100.2 innings with 115 strikeouts and only 38 walks. He compiled an aggregate 3.75 ERA.

Analysis: Despite a lean pencil-like frame, Duran, who measured 6-foot-5 and only 175 pounds, owns a lightning quick arm that allows his fastball sit hover in the mid- to upper-90s. He’ll complement the offering with a slurvy-type breaking pitch that’s called a curveball. It’s an average offering when he’s staying on top and locating it down in the zone. He’ll also shows a subpar changeup. More of a strike-thrower than a command guy at this point, Duran has the potential to develop into a sturdy backend starting pitcher with the floor as a high-leverage reliever. He does need one of his secondary offerings to jump up into the above-average range at this point though.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021

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6. Wander Javier, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/55 50 40 40/50 55+

Background: Surgery on his non-throwing shoulder forced the young shortstop to miss the entire 2018 season. Two years ago the prized international free agent batted .299/.383/.471 in 41 games in the Appalachian League.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about Javier in last year’s Handbook when I ranked him as the Twins’ eighth best prospect:

“Javier’s 2017 season is not only impressive given his age and level of competition, an advanced rookie league, but it’s equally important to point that between 2015 and 2016 he totaled just nine games of minor league action, essentially stepping cold into the Appalachian League. As for comps, well, they don’t offer up a whole lot of hope for his future:

Between 2006 and 2014, here’s the list of 18-year-old hitters to post a 10% walk rate, a strikeout rate north of 25%, an ISO of at least .170, and a wRC+ between 125 and 135: Bubba Starling, Fred Ford, Rowan Wick, Wayne Taylor, and Zach Mathieu.

Given his time between meaningful games, Javier more than deserves a pass. But he’s going to have to take some strides in cutting down the K-rate in 2018”

He should return to action at the start of 2019.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 40/45 55 50/55 50

Background: One of the longest tenured prospects in The Prospect Digest Handbook. Gordon, the fifth overall pick in 2014, has hovered near the top of the Twins’ list now for the fifth consecutive year. It was a tale of two seasons for Dee’s kid brother in 2018. Nick, who stands a wispy 6 feet and 160 pounds, rifled through the Southern League to the tune of .333/.381/.525 for 42 games. But he barely looked like any type of baseball player, let alone a top prospect, after his promotion to the International League; he batted a putrid .212/.262/.283 in 99 games with the Rochester Red Wings. For his career, Gordon’s sporting a solid .273/.328/.376 triple-slash line in 556 games.

Analysis: From dominant star to burnt out supernova in a heartbeat. Gordon continued his torrid ways for a couple weeks in the International League, but something happened in early June and he – seemingly – forgot how to hit; he batted a laughably bad .186/.243/.243 over his final 82 games – which set off more than a few bells and whistles. Never one to walk all that often, Gordon’s always profiled as a slashing, speedy infielder with a better-than-average glove. His lengthy track record is enough of a reason to give him a hall pass on the second half collapse, but he needs to come out firing on all cylinders in 2019.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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8. Akil Baddoo, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 35/45 45/50 60 40/50 50+

Background: Grabbed by the Twins in the second round of the 2016 draft. Baddoo, of course, looked miserable during his debut in the Gulf Coast League, putting together a vomitous .178/.299/.271 in 38 games. The front office bounced the 5-foot-11, 195-pound tools-laden center fielder back down to the Gulf Coast for a 20-game do-over a year later and the results were significantly better. He spent the remainder of the year in the Appalachian League. He batted an aggregate .323/.436/.527. The Georgia-native made it up to full-season action in 2018 and he –quietly – put together a solid little showing; in a career best 113 games with Cedar Rapids, Baddoo batted .243/.351/.419 with 22 doubles, 11 triples, and 11 homeruns. He also swiped 24 bags in 29 attempts. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 21% and 18%.

Analysis: Still only entering his age-20 season thanks to a late birthday. Baddoo’s a fascinating prospect with loud, loud tools and a favorable saber-slant. He owns one of the better eyes in the minor leagues with 20-homer potential and plus-speed. His defense is a liability in center field and the bat doesn’t profile as well in a corner spot, so he’ll need to show some progress in the coming the years. There’s enough here to be a solid starter, but he’s still quite raw. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old hitters to post a 115 to 125 wRC+ total and a double-digit walk rate in the Midwest League (min. 350 PA): Rio Ruiz, Rashun Dixon, Clint Frazier, Jason Martin, Brendon Davis, and – of course – Akil Baddoo.

The very definition of boom-or-bust.

Ceiling: 2.25- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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9. Lewis Thorpe, LHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 50 45 55 55 45+

Background: The Australian-born hurler was nearly forgotten about as he missed the entire 2015 and 2016 seasons due to injury. But Thorpe, a 6-foot-1, 160-pound left-hander, certainly made up for lost time since regaining his health. He opened up the 2017 season with 14 strong appearances with Fort Myers before jumping up to High Class A for a game, and he then closed out the year in style: he fanned 12 over his final eight innings of work. Last season, Thorpe made 22 appearances with Chattanooga and another four with Rochester, throwing a career high 129.2 innings, recording a whopping 157 strikeouts against just 36 walks. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.54 ERA and a 3.40 FIP.

Analysis: Not your typical finesse southpaw. Thorpe sports a plus fastball, an above-average changeup, and two fringy average-ish breaking balls. Thanks to his long arms and frame size his fastball can sneak up on hitters. His changeup shows a bit of dive. But his curveball is a bit too loopy and easy to pick up out of his hand. His slider lacked depth the couple of times I saw him pitch. With respect to his production, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, here’s the list of 22-year-old arms to post a strikeout percentage between 27% and 30% in the Southern League (min. 75 IP): Danny Hultzen, Tony Cingrani, Matt Magill, Robert Stephenson, and Jacob Faria.

It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for future success. Now to be fair, Thorpe’s shown far superior control. But I think the lack of a second “out pitch” severely limits his ceiling as a backend starting pitcher. He could very easily end up as a fastball/changeup reliever down the line.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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10. Stephen Gonsalves, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 50 55 45 50 40/45 45+

Background: It’s been a long time coming for Gonsalves, the club’s fourth round pick all the way back in 2013, but he finally graduated – at least briefly – up to the big leagues. The lanky 6-foot-5, 213-pound southpaw made minor league stops at Chattanooga and Rochester last season, throwing 120.2 innings with 120 strikeouts and 65 free passes to go along with an aggregate 2.76 ERA. Minnesota called the young hurler up for seven appearances beginning in late August. Gonsalves would throw another 24.2 innings, posting a horrific 16-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 6.57 ERA. For his minor league career, he’s averaging an impressive 9.5 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings with a 2.46 ERA.

Analysis: Gonsalves’ control has wavered at various points in his career, going from above-average to below-average depending on the year. Last season’s showing fell firmly in the latter category – especially with the Twins during his big league debut. When he’s at his best he’ll show one above-average pitches (curveball), two solid offerings (fastball and changeup), and a below-average slider that lacks depth. If the control comes back he’s a backend arm; if not, well, he’ll be riding the minor league bus for quite a while.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.