Should we reopen the US economy in a couple of weeks? Both sides of the argument have their merits. We need to put US workers back to work as quickly as possible to slow the economic damage inflicted by mass physical distancing policies. We also must minimize US deaths from the coronavirus outbreak. Barring a miracle cure, experts markedly disagree about how best to strike the balance.

But even if it were deemed optimal, can America realistically reopen our economy right now?

Economic hurdles

We’re possibly facing a 1918-style pandemic if we relax physical distancing and a Great Depression-level economic shock if we don’t. Yet our economy today is dramatically different from that of the early 20th century.

American goods and services are reliant on the output of other countries around the world, whose production is in turn dependent on the output of still other nations, and so on. We can’t successfully put American companies back to work unless other countries simultaneously do the same with their domestic industries.

Production of US automobiles, for example, simply won’t be feasible until nations that produce required components also reopen. And if US automakers can’t source the materials they need for domestic production, related service companies – like marketing firms – won’t have much work, either. If marketing companies have little to market, online advertising giants such as Google and Facebook will in turn see limited revenues.

Our global economy is remarkably interconnected. Pull out an important thread, and the whole tapestry of our production system unravels.

This economic interdependence necessitates all parts working in harmony. Unfortunately, the pandemic is asynchronous – it hits countries at different times with different rates of growth and severity. While China is reopening, India and the US are shuttering. If portions of Chinese production require unavailable intermediate goods from India or the US, such production won’t be possible. Even if China can produce items for export, if their normal buyers in the US are closed, who will they sell to? And what happens when China – still lacking herd immunity – needs to close its economy again right when India or the US are looking to reopen and use Chinese inputs?

The staggered nature of the virus outbreak coupled with worldwide production presents a remarkable – and quite possibly insurmountable – global coordination problem. Globalized on-demand supply chains simply aren’t well suited for a worldwide pandemic.

Political hurdles

The economic argument for reopening US production assumes that it would be broadly socially acceptable to sacrifice the lives of Americans to save our economy – and that politicians will therefore be willing to pursue it. We suspect, to the contrary, that premature reopening will soon be revealed as political suicide.

Once the lag in deaths catches up to the exponentially increasing number of cases in the US, myriad heart-wrenching stories of the lives of those lost will ensue. And while the economy certainly matters to voters, we suspect that any politician that wants to win re-election is highly unlikely to push workers back to offices and factories while obituaries are overflowing and we’re using skating rinks to store our dead. Explicitly putting a price on lives will probably be even more impolitic in the coming weeks than it is today.

Psychological hurdle

Crises like the coronavirus pandemic also alter our individual choices, behaviors and attitudes. Before the virus arrives, it can seem abstract, distant and even unthreatening to an uncritical or untrained eye. Yet its speed and severity take many by surprise as it rapidly runs through communities. The marked difference between expectations and reality exacts a heavy psychological toll.

Once the coronavirus touches citizens’ lives, they are quite unlikely to immediately switch back into status-quo behavior. Even if officials were to remove restrictions on movement and social gatherings, we suspect most people will continue to limit non-essential outings. How many residents of Bergamo, Italy, want to spend time in crowded shops or restaurants right now? Our guess is: very, very few. If you knew coronavirus was still ravaging your city, would you head out to the barber shop or go to a concert?

Many normal activities, from the enjoyable to the mundane, now produce some level of anxiety. That association won’t be undone overnight, and fear is a remarkably powerful deterrent to economic activity.

So, should we restart our economy while the virus is still rapidly spreading? Regardless of whether it’s a necessary evil or a terrible atrocity of an idea, we probably can’t.