This year in the NBA has been one of the most unpredictable in recent history. Who would have guessed that the Atlanta Hawks, last year’s 8 seed, would be 6.5 games ahead and first in the Eastern Conference, or the impact that rookie coach Steve Kerr would have on the Golden State Warriors playoff hopes (I could have, that guy’s the truth…), or that the Thunder would be fighting for their playoff lives midway through the season? With all of this happening, an interesting side story is the MVP race that is currently underway. More so than recent years, which have been dominated by one man,

it seems that each candidate is determined to prove that they are the best player in the NBA. For years now, players have claimed to be the best, and for years Lebron has smashed their pathetic pipe dreams, but this season players’ actions are speaking much louder than their words. Using history as a guide, let’s try and predict who will reign supreme as Most Valuable Player at the end of the 2014-2015 season. The players in consideration are those atop the leader boards provided by Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.

1. Games Played

In the past 20 years, excluding the two lockout years, on average the winner of the MVP award has played 79.5 of the 82 possible games. The only MVP winner who played less than 75 games in the season was Allen Iverson in 2000-2001 with 71 games played. Going even further, since 1955 only five players have won the award when playing less than 70 games, and only one of those seasons had the same 82 game schedule we see today — Bill Walton ’77-’78 with 58 games played. This goes to show that MVP voters place immense value on the durability of their MVPs, and rightly so. MVPs are most effective on the floor in uniform, not on the bench in club attire.

Candidates who are on pace to play a similar amount of games include: Stephen Curry, James Harden, Chris Paul, Marc Gasol.

Advantage: Stephen Curry, James Harden, Chris Paul, Marc Gasol

The most impressive player in this category is Stephen Curry, who most consider the MVP front runner, seeing that in years past the durability of his ankles were highly questionable. Over the course of the last few seasons he has steadily proven that it is not an issue. Hopefully, the report of his recent minor foot injury is just that, minor.

2. Team Playoff Seed

When it comes to MVP voting, team playoff seed is one of the easiest ways to separate the actual contenders versus pretenders. Over the past 20 seasons, every single MVP has been on either the first or second place team in their respective conference. In the past 10 seasons, only three of the winners were on the second place team — Nash in ’06, Lebron in ’12 and Durant last season. This goes to show that the voting committee strongly bases their decision on not only how well the player is doing but, more importantly, how their team as a unit is doing. This is the source of much debate considering teams who aren’t necessarily elite could have players dominating statistically — i.e. Westbrook, Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, ’06-’07 Kobe, Shaq basically every year before being traded from LA — but that’s besides the point. Choosing MVPs this way demonstrates that the league cares about one thing and one thing only, winning. Currently, only two players who fit this mold.

Advantage: Stephen Curry, Marc Gasol

3. Stats

In regards to statistics, 18 of the past 20 winners have averaged at least 23 points per game. The only other two trophies were won by Steve Nash, back to back nonetheless, who averaged 11 assists in those two seasons. When looking at this year’s candidates, it’s easy to see that scoring isn’t an issue for most of them. As of today, Curry, Harden, Westbrook, Davis and James are all averaging over 23 points a game.

To further slim down the category, by taking the average of the past 20 winners assist plus rebound total, which came out to be 13.89, there are only two players who are surpassing this number. In regards to the defensive aspect, aka steals and blocks, or the difference in position, when averaging out the two statistics they seemed to balance out, in that guards usually got more assists and less rebounds, and bigs vice versa. The same went for steals and blocks, with the exception of the Destroyer of Galaxies, Anthony Davis, who is currently averaging 1.5 steals and 2.7 blocks a game.

Advantage: Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul

Interesting side note: Only 2 players, Jordan in ’87-’88 and Hakeem in ’93-’94, have won Defensive Player of the Year and MVP in the same season. This isn’t to say that the MVP doesn’t have to affect both ends of the floor — Lebron, Kobe, KG, and Duncan have all won MVP while being First Team All Defense to name a few — but it’s obvious that being an offensive presence makes a bigger difference in voter’s minds.

4. Player Position

Even though it seems we have entered the age of the point guard, surprisingly the position with the most winners over the past 20 years is the Power Forward with 6, followed by the Small Forward with 5, Point Guard with 4, Shooting Guard with 3 and Center with 2. When reducing the sample size to the past 10 seasons, it shows that Small Forwards have dominated the award, with Lebron and KD winning 5 by themselves, followed by 3 Point Guards, 1 Shooting Guard and 1 Power Forward. This goes to show that the player with the position advantage is a Small Forward. This centers mainly on the idea that if you play the small forward position better than KD or Lebron, it probably means you’re due for some kind of accolade.

Advantage: James Harden, Lebron James

Player Age

By again lowering the sample size to the past ten seasons, the average age of the MVP is 26.9, the eldest being Steve Nash in ’05-06′, age 31, the youngest in Derrick Rose, God bless his soul, ’10-’11 season, age 22. Though this may seem like a non-factor, it is apparent that in recent years nearly all the of winners have been established veterans who have paid their dues and earned their keep. Further, the fact that the three players poised to win MVP fit the age category gives the argument of player age even more validation.

The advantage in this category goes to two players, my two MVP favorites.

Advantage: Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry

Verdict

When I first started writing this, I seriously contemplated making the title of the article “Why Stephen Curry is a Shoo in for MVP,” but as I researched I felt less and less sure of myself. Yes, I believe Stephen Curry will win his first ever MVP award and the Warriors will make it to the Western Conference Finals but if I had a vote, it would most definitely go to Westbrook.

Russell Westbrook appears to be adjusting to not having Kevin Durant http://t.co/OBX8Gnd4JX—

ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 23, 2015

Looking at Westbrook’s stats over the month of February, he has been on an absolute tear averaging 29.5 points, 10.7 assists, 8.2 rebounds. This may look like a small sample size but honestly it’s not. On the year he’s averaging 26, 8 and 6, and has the second highest Player Efficiency Rating in the entire league, trailing only Anthony Davis. The one thing holding him back is the MVP voting committee’s obsession with overall seeding (and also that he missed like 14 of the Thunder’s first games). For years, Westbrook has had to deal with the criticism of being a ball hog and has lived in the shadow of Kevin Durant, but his performance both with an without KD show that he’s the real MVP.

Actual MVP: Stephen Curry

but Russell Westbrook…

Written by Eric Yee