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UKIP is on course to win five Assembly Members at the next election – with Plaid Cymru set to lose their seat in the European Parliament, according to a new poll.

The YouGov survey for Cardiff and Edinburgh universities into voting intentions across the next three Welsh elections could see Nigel Farage’s party gaining five regional seats in the Assembly in 2016, mainly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, while Labour has taken an apparent hit to its vote share after an onslaught from the UK Government over its handling of public services.

But the findings, in association with the think tank the Institute for Public Policy Research and published by the Elections in Wales blog, suggest Labour would largely maintain its stranglehold on Wales – with the party set to maintain its position in Cardiff Bay and bolster its dominance of Welsh seats at Westminster and in the European Parliament.

The party would return two MEPs in next month’s Euro ballot, with Ukip and the Conservatives taking one each and Plaid Cymru losing its veteran MEP, Jill Evans.

Westminster voting intentions (%) Source: YouGov poll

Projected seats: Labour: 31 (+5), Conservative: 6 (-2), Lib Dems: 1 (-2), Plaid Cymru: 2 (-1)

For next year’s General Election, Labour cede two points to the Tories compared to a YouGov poll in February in the latest poll, taking 45%, with the Tories on 24%. Plaid Cymru remain unchanged on 11%, with Ukip up one point to 10% and the Lib Dems static on 7%.

But if the vote were applied across Wales, Labour would gain five seats and hold on to all 26 other seats it won in 2010.

The poll makes grim reading for most of the other parties – with the Conservatives projected to lose three seats, the Liberal Democrats could lose two of their three Welsh seats and Plaid could lose Arfon, reducing its Westminster presence to just two MPs.

Constituency voting intentions for the 2016 Assembly elections see Labour drop one point to 41%, the Tories remain static on 21%, while Plaid go up one point to 20%.

But in the regional list vote, which ensures seats are proportional to vote share, Labour and the Lib Dems drop two points to 37% and 7% respectively, while the Tories and Plaid Cymru go up two points to 21% and 19%, with Ukip taking a 10% slice.

Assembly voting intentions - Constituency vote (%) Source: YouGov

Translated into seats, Labour would fall one to 29 the Tories could lose a seat to fall to 13, Plaid would stagnate on 11 and the Lib Dems could fall to two AMs from their current crop of five due to Ukip’s surge on the list vote – with the latter projected to go from no AMs to five.

Professor Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University and author of the blog, said: “In general, these figures support the idea that Labour’s position in Wales has weakened slightly over the last year or so.

“While Labour are still well ahead, their vote share now is notably lower than it was throughout 2012 and early 2013. Still, as I have observed previously, if you were in any of the other parties, you wouldn’t mind having Labour’s problems.”

But he added: “The party in Wales which perhaps has the most positive news to draw from this poll is Ukip. Though their support levels in Wales continue to lag behind those in England, Ukip have become a significant force in Welsh party politics.”

Ukip’s lead candidate for the European elections, Nathan Gill, said the poll showed media and other parties’ attacks on Ukip “were not working”.

Assembly voting intentions – List Vote Source: YouGov

Projected seats: Labour: 29 (-1), Conservative: 13 (-1), Lib Dems: 2 (-3), Plaid Cymru: 11 (no change), Ukip: 5 (+5)

He said: “We were very close last time around to elected three Assembly Members. It’s clear that Ukip are more and more known, everyone knows who we are now. We are no longer just ‘another’ party.”

Mr Gill added: “We are under more scrutiny than any other political party has ever been under, ever before. They have been part of a cosy club for years – and I include Plaid Cymru in that – and all of a sudden they feel threatened and are ganging up on us.

“But what we have said all along is that we are not career politicians, we are speaking up for genuine people’s concerns about this change that our nation never signed up to.”

A Welsh Labour spokesman said: “Today’s poll shows clearly that the people of Wales value the hard work of Welsh Labour standing up against the Tories and Lib Dems in Westminster, and delivering for Wales in the Senedd.

European Parliament voting intentions Source: YouGov

“It’s evident that the Tory war on Wales has backfired and failed to give them the boost of support they were hoping for. Only a vote for Labour in May’s European election will send a message to David Cameron.

“For Leanne Wood and Plaid Cymru this poll is not just bad it’s embarrassing. The so-called party of Wales have stagnated under her leadership. If this poll is accurate only around one in ten people will vote for her party this year and next.”

A Plaid Cymru spokeswoman said: “As the only party that puts Wales first, Plaid Cymru will be fighting for every vote in the coming European elections. There is a danger that Wales - our economy, our communities and our culture – could be left totally isolated and under threat if we allow the scaremongering, right wing politics of Ukip to shape our future.”

A Welsh Liberal Democrat spokesman said: “The margin of error is so small that YouGov’s previous poll, only two months ago, stated we would keep all five of our Assembly seats. Whatever the polls say, we will continue to be the most effective party at holding this failing Welsh Labour Government to account.”

Political commentator Gareth Hughes said the poll underlined Leanne Wood’s decision to make Ukip the main focus of her attack in her Spring conference speech.

He said: “The polls show that Ms Wood’s leadership is not giving Plaid the edge they hoped for in the Valleys and things look a bit difficult in the Arfon seat in the general election.

“In the Assembly elections Labour lose some ground but it’s from a high base. While the loss of one seat brings them down to 29, with the opposition fragmented between four parties with the arrival of Ukip, Labour are in a more comfortable position to govern than they are now.”