The Centre also provides educational opportunities for PhD students, in-service professionals and interns. This site includes resources for schoolteachers and communities. If you would like to work or study with NATSEM in the future, please send your details to natsem | at | canberra.edu.au.

NATSEM regularly partners in this work with commercial, government and not-for-profit clients. This research provides an evidence-based foundation for policy leadership, advocacy and public debate. You can find out more about partnering with NATSEM through this site.

NATSEM undertakes independent and impartial research that contributes to policy design and analysis. Our work includes models that show how policy scenarios shape tax and welfare payments. It includes tools that map the impact of policy on diverse community groups. We also specialise in mixed method modelling and evaluation of policy programs.

NATSEM is an international leader in supporting strong policy through robust evidence. It is known as a national centre of excellence in microsimulation, economic modelling and policy evaluation.

Models

NATSEM specialises in applying social and economic models to inform robust policy decision-making. These include well-established models, such as Stinmod+, SpatialMSM and Smart and Skilled Simulator (SASSI). The Centre also designs mixed method evidence and evaluation models according to client need.

In the past, NATSEM has constructed models across a wide range of social and economic policy areas. These include:

tax and social security public policy and administration;

superannuation, tax and transfer systems;

regional, rural and remote Australia;

ageing, disability, health and mental health;

childcare, schooling, vocational education and training;

income, housing, inequality, welfare and wellbeing.

NATSEM models draw on 'top down' conceptual and ‘bottom-up’ practical approaches. This means that we can integrate national policy insight with the individual experiences of real Australians. This base provides tremendous flexibility within our modelling.

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STINMOD+

The Australian tax, transfer and social security systems are complex and constantly changing. Adding to this this complexity is the interrelated nature of different policy initiatives. The power of the STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) is that it incorporates the impact of new and related elements on tax and welfare outcomes.

NATSEM has developed and maintained STINMOD since 1994. It was an Australian pioneer in modelling and widely used by Commonwealth Government agencies. The power of this tool has proven to be its ability to replicate the implementation of policy programs in real life.

The Centre's latest model, Stinmod+, has been a significant upgrade to the original. It incorporates contemporary modelling techniques and improves the efficiency of analysis. It also better integrates the model with key national datasets and emerging behavioural models. This tool is updated regularly, such as after the 2020 COVID19 stimulus package.

NATSEM partners with a range of policy, sector and community leaders to use Stinmod+ to provide in-depth and tailored analysis.

In 2018, NATSEM released its Stinmod+ online tool. This enables policy leaders to test different national tax and welfare scenarios. It also allows families to estimate their current tax liability and welfare payments. Corporate and national peak bodies regularly access Stinmod+ online to support their work.

So, whether you're an individual wanting to understand the impact of the Federal Budget, a policy-maker wanting to undertake taxation analysis or an advocate seeking evidence - Stinmod+ online provides the perfect solution. Stinmod+ online is an important example of NATSEM’s engagement and service with Australian communities.

This Stinmod+ model allows NATSEM to continue as one of the leading independent economic modellers in Australia.

NATSEM's STINMOD+ Discovery Tour video.

If you would like to know more about drawing on the power of Stinmod+ for in-depth analysis around your organisation's needs, please contact Professor Jinjing Li.

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SpatialMSM

It is well known that many social and economic characteristics vary by location. Even before drought and bushfires, much of regional Australia experienced socio-economic disadvantage. The persistent poverty in parts of Australia has resulted in a growing emphasis on place-based policy initiatives. Due to the different impact of COVID19 on industries and jobs, economic recovery will not be even.

That is why analysis of geo-spatial variation is essential when designing policy, targeting programs, or delivering services. NATSEM's modelling capability include highly specialised data analysis and mapping capacities.

Our spatial microsimulation model (SpatialMSM) generates socio-economic data across all Australian communities. This model allows small area estimates of characteristics that are not normally available from Census or national administrative data.

SpatialMSM also allows us to derive cross tabulations of different characteristics (e.g., poverty by age or poverty by housing). It has also been linked to Stinmod+ to derive small area and group estimates of tax and transfer policy changes. Importantly, it can include labour and population projections to help policy-leaders look to the future.

NCOSS used SpatialMSM to produce Mapping Economic Disadvantage in NSW.

If you would like to know more about using SpatialMSM to understand the variation of community characteristics by location, please contact Professor Rob Tanton.

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Mixed Method Social Models

NATSEM recognises that many of the 'wicked problems' faced by today's policy leaders need more than just economic answers. Increasingly, leaders demand data that span sectors, departments, disciplines and diverse groups. This requires robust approaches that combine different forms of evidence-creation.

Economic and spatial modelling are powerful tools, but like all simulations, they come with limitations. Important information may not measurable or collected. Variables may not be available at the unit record or relevant regional level. For ethical reasons, data may not be released to prevent the identification of individuals or groups. NATSEM works closely with its research partners and clients to be clear what modelling is possible with the data available.

The NATSEM team also has expertise in the use of mixed methods to design bespoke approaches. It also has extensive experience in using different forms of evaluation to produce deep policy insight. Our methods can be designed to integrate our economic and spatial modelling tools with these other rigorous methods of policy analysis.

We recognise that policy design and delivery occur in complex governance systems. Governments, private entities, non-government organisations and community stakeholders also play an important part in policy outcomes. Also, in a federal system, different interfaces between and across policy networks also play a vital role. This means that policies and programs need to be assessed at different stages, in different ways and for different audiences.

The NATSEM team has extensive experience in large-scale system-wide assessments and developing national sector maturity models. This work has included working with harder to reach groups, assessing the viability of innovative models of care and community capacity building in some of Australia’s lowest socio-economic regions.

As a member of IGPA, our teams also draw on the insight of international experts in governance and national policy specialists. Such perspectives offer insight into the complexity, diversity and lived experience within systems, which is valuable to policy designer and advocate alike.

If you would like to know more about NATSEM’s design of bespoke approaches for policy development, evaluation and analysis, please contact Professor Brenton Prosser.

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Smart and Skilled Simulator (SASSI)

Smart and Skilled Simulator (SASSI) is a software tool that implements a microsimulation model in the field of vocational education policy analysis. The software is designed to evaluate the impact of policy changes on student enrolment and the State education budget.