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Can there be any sentence more likely to turn off blog readers than “an alarming poll from the New York Times”? Possibly not, but here goes…

A year out from election day 2020, Nate Cohn of the New York Times has published the results of new polls in key swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. And if you are not a supporter of Donald Trump, and in particular if you are a supporter of Senator Elizabeth Warren, the picture does not look particularly rosy. Here’s a screengrab:

The Times poll results. Photograph: New York Times

Of course, the picture is a little brighter if you back Joe Biden – the moderate’s moderate, the Centrist Dad’s Centrist Dad – or Bernie Sanders, the great progressive hope of 2016 who is trailing Warren in Democratic polls this year.

Here’s how Cohn sums it up:

Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, [Trump] trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error. Mr Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago. The poll showed Bernie Sanders deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters. The results suggest that Ms Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender – including the fraught question of ‘likability’ — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.

Hmmm.

Polling out at the weekend from The Washington Post and ABC News put Biden in the lead nationally among Democratic primary voters, from Warren, Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. The mayor of South Bend is second in Iowa, though, and has said he thinks the nomination fight is now between him and Warren.

Pete Buttigieg: race is between me and Warren – as new poll puts him fourth Read more

On the subject of Mayor Pete and Iowa, Cohn of the Times says the following:

Ms Warren trailed Mr Trump by six points in Iowa, the widest gap among leading Democrats, even though she led the Democratic caucus in our poll. Pete Buttigieg, who is generally not as well known as Ms Warren, trailed Mr Trump by four points in Iowa, which was the only state where we included him in head-to-head polling against the president. Mr Biden trailed by one point and Mr Sanders by three.

Sobering news also from Texas, meanwhile, home state of Beto O’Rourke who withdrew from the Democratic race on Friday and a dream target for Democrats, if not necessarily a realistic one. Ross Ramsey of the Texas Tribune writes that according to a poll conducted by the paper and the University of Texas:

None of the top Democrats seeking the presidential nomination would beat President Donald Trump in Texas in an election held today… Joe Biden of Delaware, the former vice-president, is running 7% behind Trump in Texas, as is Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Bernie Sanders of Vermont falls 5 % short in a head-to-head with the president among Texas voters.”

Further hmmm.