Kim Hjelmgaard

USA TODAY

BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling party could face new losses in local elections here Sunday from an upstart anti-immigration party that has grown in popularity as an opponent to the German leaders' open-door policy for migrants.

In recent state elections, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has made enough gains to sow doubt over Merkel's ability to win a fourth term in next year's national elections.

In Sunday's vote, the AfD is not likely to repeat its success in the Sept. 4 election in Merkel's home state, where the party came in second ahead of the chancellor's ruling Christian Democrats for the first time, capturing 21% of the vote to 19% for Merkel's party. The AfD didn't fare as well last Sunday in the state of Lower Saxony, where it came in fourth in municipal elections.

Chancellor Merkel's party suffers loss in home state over migrant policy

With its strident opposition to immigration, Islam and the European Union, the AfD looks to make fresh gains in Germany's capital, which usually leans to the left politically.

Merkel, whose approval ratings are at a five-year low, has struggled to overcome mounting German angst over her decision to take in more than 1 million migrants fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

The AfD was founded three years ago in protest over Germany's participation in bailouts for indebted countries that use the euro currency, such as Greece and Spain. It's more recent populist anti-immigration message mirrors other once-fringe right-wing political parties across Europe that are gaining in popularity, such as Austria's People's Party, the United Kingdom Independence Party and France's National Front.

"Most AfD voters are initially drawn to the party because of their perception that Germany's liberal refugee policies have gone too far," said Gideon Botsch, a political science professor at the University of Potsdam, who called the party "xenophobic."

Equally important for many AfD voters, Botsch said, the party's conservative agenda is based on traditional family values, it attacks political correctness as being out of control, and it speaks for those who worry the middle class is being squeezed by globalization and unfavorable trade policies. Those are the same issues Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has embraced in the U.S. election campaign.

"There are other important things for our voters that have nothing to do with the refugee crisis," said Ronald Gläser, an AfD spokesman in Berlin. "Five years ago the government decided to shut down all nuclear power in Germany and to rely only on sustainable energy — this of course makes energy much more expensive for Germans."

"There's also our tax system. It's so complicated," Gläser said. "We need major tax reform in Germany."

In addition, "politicians are making our lives more and more complicated. Why does it have to be like this?" he continued. "In our schools, our children are being taught sexual themes earlier and earlier." And the German government interferes in too many aspects of ordinary Germans' lives, such as rent prices, wages and even what type of fire alarms are mandated to be installed in German homes, he said.

Gläser said that about half of the emails he receives from AfD's sympathizers are about the refugee crisis. The rest concern "all the other things."

Ramon Schack, a Berlin political scientist, said the AfD has benefited from voters disenchanted with a move to the left by Merkel's Christian Democrats. "It's no longer a center-right party," he said.

German leader Merkel faces voter rebuke on refugees in home state

Polls show the AfD could win as much as 15% of Sunday's vote, bringing its number of seats in Germany's 16 state parliament's to 10.

Nationally, the party's image has been hurt by one of its high-profile leaders, Frauke Petry, 41, a businesswoman whose comments have stirred controversy. She said migrants trying to enter Germany illegally should be shot at the border as a last resort. She also called for rehabilitating the term völkisch, a word that refers to the German nationality but is identified with the Nazis' racist ideology.

In the last federal election in 2013, the AfD narrowly missed the 5% vote threshold for entering the Bundestag, Germany's national parliament. So far, all of Germany's mainstream political parties have ruled out forming a coalition with AfD, meaning it would need to win a majority to run the government, an improbable outcome given Germany's multiple political parties.