OTTAWA—Two elections in three weeks are a test for voters in a couple of Toronto ridings this month — not only of their patience, but of their loyalty to political brands.

Does a Liberal, NDP or Conservative vote in the June 12 provincial election mean the same X on the ballot in the June 30 federal byelections in Trinity—Spadina and Scarborough—Agincourt?

Not necessarily, especially in these days of weak voter attachment to political parties. So all the federal byelection candidates are out looking for these “floating voters,” who are being offered the rare, even historic chance to switch their ballot choice within the space of less than three weeks.

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The colourful proof of these voters’ existence has been found on front lawns all over Trinity—Spadina and Scarborough—Agincourt over the past month — signs declaring support for one party in the provincial election and another, different party for the federal byelection.

So who are these fickle, floating voters?

First of all, obviously, they don’t see themselves as committed party types.

“There are clearly partisans out there, but that’s five to six per cent of the population,” says Adam VaughanAdam Vaughan, the former city councillor who’s decided to run as the Liberal candidate in Trinity—Spadina. “The vast majority of people are inclined one way or the other, but triggered to vote based on what values and what leadership and what candidates are put in front of them.”

The Liberal candidates in these ridings are clearly hoping that voter loyalty still exists — both ridings, provincially, were won by Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals on June 12 with almost 50 per cent of the vote in each.

But Vaughan says the multicoloured lawn signs are often a reflection of careful calculation by the residents inside.

“There are houses where you can tell, in a very manicured way, they have composed what kind of federal-provincial partnership they want with their city,” he says. “You can see where Kathleen has planted a Liberal sign and where the legacy of (the late NDP leader) Jack Layton has planted an orange sign.”

Many of the floating voters may be tempted to change their vote as a reaction to the provincial results, says Joe Cressy, running hard against Vaughan for the NDP in Trinity—Spadina.

Cressy has been running into a number of voters who regret that NDP MPP Rosario Marchese lost his seat in Trinity—Spadina in the Wynne sweep, and who have been assuring him they’re coming back to the NDP for this vote.

“They’re telling me they only voted Liberal to make sure that (Progressive Conservative leader) Tim Hudak didn’t win,” Cressy says.

The rookie NDP candidate has done some thinking about the floating-voter demographics, and says that they are often young people or the “economically marginalized.”

People struggling to make ends meet are not going to feel bound by party loyalty, Cressy says, and “young people tend to be less ideologically driven, and less party-driven, but more issue-oriented.”

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Camille Labchuk, a lawyer who’s running for the Greens in that same riding, sees the same thing. Many Trinity—Spadina voters are a sophisticated bunch, she says, who know that there’s a difference between the federal and political parties and are not necessarily inclined to vote out of loyalty to a partisan brand.

“Some people are dyed-in-the-wool and they’re always going to vote a certain way, but I’m surprised, in this riding particularly, by how many people simply care about the issues and want to find a party that matches their values,” says Labchuk. “The three progressive parties, I definitely see a fair amount of crossover.”

Yet, in the long view, these floating voters also don’t seem too hung up on the old labels of “left” and right” in politics. They see no contradiction in running from one side of the political spectrum to the other, basing their trust in whatever candidate seems to speak best for their populist concerns.

In pockets of Scarborough, for instance, there are polling districts filled with voters who backed Toronto Mayor Rob Ford in the 2010 municipal election and then turned right around and voted for NDP leader Jack Layton’s party in 2011.

The riding of Scarborough—Rouge River, right next door to where the current byelection is taking place, was a stronghold of Ford support in the last municipal campaign, but sent NDP Rathika Sitsabaiesan to Parliament a year later.

“The determination there is ‘who is going to fight for people like me,’ ” Cressy says. “It was ‘who is going to respect me?’ ”

Pollster Nik Nanos points out that we’ve come to expect Ontario voters to switch their federal and provincial allegiance — a reference to the fact that when Liberals are in power nationally, Conservatives have ruled at Queen’s Park, and vice-versa.

Nanos calls this an “observable but not fully understood phenomenon.”

“It implies that voters are explicitly thinking in terms of federal and provincial checks and balances,” Nanos said.

In reality, he says, it may be something as simple as a moving pool of political talent between Ottawa and Toronto.

“With the Tories currently in power federally, jobs and talent are attracted to Ottawa, making Queen’s Park less desirable,” Nanos says. “The converse holds true for the Liberals in Ontario. The attraction of jobs and power draws Liberal talent to the Wynne government.”

Ultimately, the floating voters may be sending a signal to the fierce partisans about the need to see politics beyond the team colours and starkly drawn battle lines. Voters, unlike the politicians, don’t have to think that one party has all the answers all the time.