On March 6th 2009, six months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the prospects for corporate America looked dire. With the once-mighty General Motors publicly questioning its ability to survive, General Electric’s share price around an 18-year low and Citigroup’s shares trading for less than $1, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 6,627, a 53% decline from its all-time high less than two years earlier. The number of American firms in the global top ten by market capitalisation was on its way down from six to three, and America’s share of the top 50 companies from 50% to 40%. Once regarded even in Communist China as the business model for the world, corporate America had lost its crown. Yet, after a remarkable reversal of fortune, in 2014 American companies will be back on top of the business world.

The year will begin with American firms accounting for most of the global top ten by market value and nearly two-thirds of the top 50. Stockmarkets are inherently unpredictable, yet it will come as no surprise if the Dow marks the fifth anniversary of its 2009 trough by breaking records at some 10,000 points higher. Before that, in January, expect the annual Edelman Trust Barometer to show that Americans’ trust in business continues to recover strongly from its post-crash lows, even as their trust in government remains far less, while in some emerging markets trust in business is pitifully low.

This resurgence is due in part to American policymakers doing a better job than their peers in Europe of reviving the economy after the financial crash. Demand recovered steadily, and will gather momentum in 2014 as the housing market gains strength, boosting a host of businesses, from property salesmen to home-and-garden stores. Though controversial, direct government support for companies such as gm and Citigroup means that both will enter 2014 profitable again. Liquid capital markets let corporate America rebuild its balance-sheets with cheap, long-term debt. Falling unemployment, at last, will boost consumer confidence and spending. And although for too long the recovery was “jobless” it was certainly not profitless: in 2014 American business may again account for a record share of national income.

American business will rediscover its voice

Corporate America will be further strengthened by growing evidence of the winning hand it has been dealt by the use of new techniques, such as fracking, for extracting oil and natural gas cheaply. Politicians will rightly seek robust regulation of these techniques—in 2014 the Environmental Protection Agency will produce an assessment of their impact—but this will not hold back the rising domestic production of “unconventional” sources of energy, benefiting the firms which sell them (a significant amount, soon, as exports) and those domestic energy users in industries from petrochemicals to steel that are close to a cheap new source of supply. In 2014 exploitation of these techniques will expand, on the way to adding what McKinsey, a consultancy, estimates could be an extra 2-4% to GDP by 2020.

The innovation nation

America is proving quicker than many countries to exploit unconventional energy supplies because it is embracing innovative new techniques faster and more effectively. The venture-capital industry may be shrinking, but in 2014 America’s innovation engine will prove to be in great shape. American business will again lead the world into the next phase of social media, finding ways to profit from Big Data and developing the sharing economy, which may see IPOs for firms such as AirBnB and perhaps even Etsy. Abroad, too, multinationals will show the adaptability of the American business model by shifting senior management to developing countries and outdoing local rivals there by mastering techniques such as frugal engineering. And flush with cash reserves abroad—not least because of the failure to reform corporate tax at home—American companies will be enthusiastic buyers of foreign firms, helping to lead a new global wave of mergers and acquisitions.