Posted by

Aaron Nielsen ,

December 30, 2014 Email

Aaron Nielsen



Twitter

@ENBSports

Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device





As expected from my annual state of the game column last year, the 2014 soccer season was dominated by the World Cup. In many ways it was a great success and brought the number of people who follow the game locally to a whole new level. In America, the United States game against Belgium brought an audience that is only beaten by Super Bowls in terms of sports, and ratings in Canada out drew any hockey game, including the Stanley Cup. I was able to witness this first hand from a house party for the Italy versus England game, to joining a large group of non-soccer people for the Germany versus Brazil game, and trying to relate to Brazilians we were with who were almost in tears after the route. See also: Review of the state of soccer in Canada & N.America, 2013

2015 will have another momentous event and in Canada we can call it our own: the 2015 Women's World Cup. This will be a great event supported by most Canadians and like last year, once the tournament starts the excitement and passion of the event will grip anyone who wishes to participate as a viewer. I attended Canada's U20 World Cup game in Toronto last summer against Finland and was greatly impressed by the passion of the players, the supporters groups, and the general audience who were mostly young girls, which shows great opportunity for the sport in the future. Although these major tournaments dominate the soccer calendar, all levels of the game continue to play out domestically, thus making soccer a year-long experience. The past few years I have put more effort on the game locally, including the creation of three soccer handbooks this year for NCAA Soccer and the MLS draft prospects, NASL and USL Pro. This has allowed me to be even closer to the game including speaking regularly to people who have an impact on it. I'm beginning to realize the key in understanding and hopefully creating influence and improving the game locally, is a greater "Soccer Awareness". This awareness is what most likely influenced my success this season in predictions. I had the LA Galaxy winning the MLS Cup (as well as 7 of the 10 playoff teams), San Antonio recovering from a poor season in 2013 to win the NASL title, Orlando and Seattle dominate regular season in the USL Pro and NWSL respectively, York University to win the CIS, while Virginia to make the final four and win the NCAA Soccer Cup tournament. I also talked about the potential success of local clubs Vaughn, Sigma FC and Toronto FC Academy in the inaugural season of League 1 Ontario. Not defined, but soccer awareness has always been a mission statement regarding my work and where I feel soccer statistics and analytics has its greatest influence. Even in the famous case of the Oakland A's and the Moneyball story where the use of statistical formulas helped them select players. They had to be aware of the players, and if no one was calculating walks and on base average in the minor leagues, college or high school baseball, the Oakland A's and Billy Beane would have no awareness of the players the club eventually drafted or traded for. Unfortunately in my professional work regarding the game, the entities with the least amount of soccer awareness I have been dealing with are parts of MLS. Not a blanket statement, as I have spoken and dealt with clubs who do a good job and have created potential dynasties such as the LA Galaxy, while smaller market clubs such as New England, Sporting KC and DC United can turn around disappointing seasons and compete. There is also an encouraging sign this off season with the Chicago Fire signing of David Accam. This is the first time an MLS club has brought in a player who I had in an international prospect list the season before, as Accam was ranked as my number three prospect for the 2014 Swedish Allsvenskan. Of all clubs I have dealt with, it will not be surprising to many that the one who seems the most unaware are Toronto FC. I was blindly optimistic a year ago with the hiring of Tim Leiweke and the signing of Gilberto, Jermain Defoe, Dwayne DeRosario, Micheal Bradley, and Julio Cesar already in the rumor mill. What I can't deny are quality players, and in a league with such restrictions as MLS, this quality should bring in success. Once the season began there were concerns of Julio Cesar only lasting a short while, or could Defoe and Gilberto play together, and it soon was noticeable that DeRosario wasn't his old self, while too much was expected of Bradley. In the end Toronto FC missed the playoffs partially via bad luck, but they were not even close to the expectation analytical models projected. It can be argued that at minimum Toronto FC were competitive and with Bradley, Gilberto and Defoe (or his replacement) in 2015, I expect the same. However, Toronto FC’s ownership, and as supporters, we should be embarrassed of this. At the end of the MLS Season, Soccermetrics did their annual front office efficiency report in terms how much a club spend per point in MLS - more than half the clubs were under $50,000 a point, while Toronto spent $264,869 per point gain in MLS last season. Despite this, Toronto FC’s management still acts like the "Emperor with no clothes" going into 2015. They have resigned most of their lower cap players who failed to perform and had a grand press conference regarding how they are monitoring academy players’ vitals. I echo a comment on the mlssoccer.com article regarding the press conference - just win. I've become closer to Toronto FC this past season, and to be honest everything I have heard and seen I haven't been overly impressed with. My view now is Toronto FC are basically a league run team, and I worry how a similar league initiative destroyed Chivas USA, especially once the supporters catch on. I truly believe the best option going forward is MLSE gives up and allows a person/group with actual soccer awareness to run the club. Despite the ongoing saga at BMO Field, I think Canadians, and even people in Toronto, should be very positive when it comes to soccer in our country. The Men's national team is starting to attain results, although almost more exciting is the success of the U20 Men's team, and based on the draw I expect a successful Women's World Cup tournament where Canada could reach the semi-finals stage. I think the creation of League 1 Ontario brings hope and I'm very excited by the Women's division. Ottawa Fury and FC Edmonton remain strong and the addition of three new USL Pro clubs, and rumors of potential professional clubs in Hamilton, Winnipeg, and another one in Toronto, shows the game is only growing. With more awareness comes cynicism, and there are some frustrations with the game in North America. Even though I put a large amount of effort in the game locally, the truth is my success is still elsewhere. People across the soccer world have become more accustomed to statistics and analytics and see the value in my work from over the last 20 years. Many years ago I expected this, however, I also hoped the game in North America could take advantage of this awareness as well. I'm a strong believer in North American sports culture and it’s not surprising MLS is eighth in attendance. This despite being 22nd in salary, although especially regarding authority, there still a fear that soccer is not our game and we are borrowing it from someone else as we hear it in the announcers accents when we turn on an MLS game. Last year I talked about soccer competing with other sports, and although you might be a Toronto FC or a Sporting KC fan, your number one team is likely the Maple Leafs or the Chiefs. I'd not be surprised if this is still the case, but it is improving and although not exceptional, the MLS Cup final and playoffs got decent ratings this year despite being up against NFL games. I think with the success of the US in the 2014 World Cup and the anticipation of the 2015 Women's World Cup it is time for us to call the game of soccer our own. This is one of the reasons why I support the players in the upcoming MLS CBA, as for years others made money off of us through soccer and now it is time to support our own, compete with the rest of the World and prove we can have as much soccer awareness as anyone.