CUPAR, Scotland — It’s the closest race in the U.K. general election.

Last time, in 2017, the Scottish National Party held the seat of North East Fife on Scotland’s eastern coast from a Liberal Democrat resurgence by just two votes. This time, the SNP are hoping it won't be anything like as tight — thanks to their anti-Brexit stance and their argument that the looming departure from the EU strengthens the case for Scottish independence.

“Brexit is massive on the doorstep,” says Stephen Gethins, the SNP incumbent MP. North East Fife’s largest town is St. Andrews, home of golf and one of the oldest universities in the world. “The universities are the biggest employer here — not just at St. Andrews but with staff teaching in Dundee but living here. Research, freedom of movement, people get that.”

Elsewhere in the U.K., the Lib Dems hold the mantle of being the most pro-EU party. But in Scotland, the SNP can make the same claim. They argue not only that Brexit must be stopped, but that it would be such a fundamental change that Scotland should hold a new referendum on breaking away from the U.K. and then join the EU as an independent nation.

In the 2016 EU referendum, Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, by 62 to 38 percent. The threat of being pulled out of the EU against Scotland's will is something Gethins says has motivated “lots of people voting SNP for the first time.” The Greens, who also support independence, are not standing in North East Fife and have endorsed the SNP.

“Our folk are incredibly fired up" — Stephen Gethins, incumbent SNP MP for North East Fife

One new SNP supporter is Frances Melville, the former Lib Dem provost of Fife, a Scottish civic role roughly equivalent to mayor.

“Our folk are incredibly fired up,” says Gethins, before adding “SNP and Lib Dem activists get on quite well — there’s respect for each other.”

Under new leader Jo Swinson, a Scot, the Lib Dems are known for their outspoken support for the EU. But they do not support Scottish independence, although some of the party's members back the idea. Wendy Chamberlain, a former police officer, is their candidate for North East Fife and isn’t interested in even discussing independence for now.

“The priority should be Brexit as it’s the most immediate threat,” she says.

Across the U.K., prioritizing Brexit worked well for the Lib Dems in May’s European Parliament election, when they finished second behind only the Brexit Party.

But in a general election, the U.K.’s first-past-the-post electoral system disadvantages smaller parties. And voters who have flirted with other parties tend to return to their traditional favorites in the election they consider to matter most. Those factors make it hard for the Lib Dems to radically improve on their total of 20 MPs in the U.K. parliament.

In Scotland, the terrain is arguably even tougher. The party has an extra competitor in the pro-EU camp, in the shape of the SNP. But it also faces competition among parties that oppose Scottish independence, with the Conservatives presenting themselves as the most staunchly pro-U.K. party.

Independence divide

At a cafe in Cupar, a market town at the center of the constituency, an older woman deftly avoids any definitive statement until the very end of our conversation.

"Just so you know," she whispers conspiratorially, "I'm not SNP."

If such voters consider opposition to Scottish independence their top priority, the danger for the Lib Dems is that they will opt for the Conservatives.

Gethins says he’s “probably more worried about the Tories,” than the Lib Dems, despite the 2017 result.

“We’re so concerned with constitutional questions that we’re not thinking about the day-to-day issues” — Wendy Chamberlain, Lib Dem candidate in North East Fife

The Lib Dems’ pro-EU strategy, in which they promise to cancel Brexit altogether should they win a majority in Westminster, is designed to appeal in tight races across England where Tories unhappy with their party’s pursuit of Brexit might be tempted to switch. But it's not clear if that plan is well-suited to Scotland, with its different political landscape.

The SNP have unambiguously tied their fortunes in next month's election to a new referendum on independence. Some pollsters suggest the party could win as many as 50 seats in the 650-member House of Commons.

Though the SNP does not stand candidates in seats outside Scotland, they hope to return enough MPs to allow them to support a Labour administration in Westminster in exchange for a new independence referendum.

Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already ruled out permitting such a vote. But Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn has been more circumspect, leaving the door open to an independence referendum after "the early years" of a Labour administration.

Lib Dem Wendy Chamberlain’s political awakening came after the chastening 2015 election campaign where the party lost 86 percent of its seats after five years of coalition government with the Conservatives. She says she was spurred by “crying at [former leader] Nick Clegg on the telly,” leading to a sense that “I couldn’t sit on my hands anymore.”

Chamberlain was selected for the seat last summer and says the party is distinguished by “our history — our European and internationalist outlook,” although the Lib Dems were early supporters of the push for an EU referendum. She suggests the SNP’s opposition to Brexit is “potentially convenient, because it furthers the cause of independence.”

Voters in Scotland may share Chamberlain’s frustration that “we’re so concerned with constitutional questions that we’re not thinking about the day-to-day issues,” but they’ve also become accustomed to identifying their politics by considering independence first.

Political climate

But it's not all about Scotland's constitutional status. The country's dismal weather will also be a factor in the election.

On the campaign trail in early November, Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, explained the lack of any noticeable signage as simply common sense — any posters put up now risk destruction by fierce wind and rain.

Political fatigue is a concern for all parties too. As Gethins puts it, “It’s clear folk understand there has to be an election, but they’re not desperate to see one.”

Scotland has been in a state of perpetual campaigning for over eight years: The 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections gave rise to the independence campaign which began in 2012; that referendum was in 2014, followed by the 2015 U.K. general election; then 2016’s Scottish parliamentary election and the EU referendum; and most recently, 2017’s snap U.K. general election.

Anstruther is one of the coastal villages in Fife’s East Neuk region. At the Ship Tavern, by the harbor, news of the general election is about as welcome as a major dental procedure. One man expresses sympathy when I tell him I am a political reporter, while another winces at the mention of the election, before giving a brief account of the area’s modern history.

Politics, as Chamberlain explains, is still “absolutely personal” in Fife. For decades, this seat was held by former Lib Dem leader and outspoken pro-European Menzies “Ming” Campbell. Personal allegiance to the man, and to his party, helps keep the Lib Dems in the race here amidst an expected SNP surge.

Fishing was the dominant industry well into the 20th century in this area, but EEC and EU membership coincided with the rise of massive trawlers and consolidated businesses, forcing the move from fishing villages like Anstruther and Pittenweem, to larger industrial ports in Aberdeenshire. While there are a handful of boats in Anstruther now, it’s a niche business, focused instead on specialty seafood for restaurants in the cities.

Some Scottish fishing communities, angered by EU fisheries policy, have enthusiastically backed Brexit. But the economy here has diversified into other areas such as academia and services. And Ming Campbell’s unmistakably pro-European voice, which dominated politics here for two decades, helped ensure the community remained strongly in favor of the EU.

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But with Campbell now in retirement and the Lib Dems also having lost other prominent Scottish figures in recent years, the party faces a struggle in Scotland to make its voice heard. The SNP aped their pro-EU message and alloyed it with the case for Scottish independence, while the Conservatives market themselves as the true pro-U.K. party.

The latest polls show the SNP winning about 40 percent of the vote in Scotland, with the Conservatives on about 20 percent, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats tussle for third place some way behind.

North East Fife will be a key test of whether the SNP can reinforce its place in Scotland's new political center — or whether the Lib Dems can win back some of their traditional turf.

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