Joe Biden believes he’s going to be president. He has reason to: He’s the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination — at least right now — and holding strong, despite having no sense of physical boundaries, which doesn’t exactly conform with 2019 social norms. The long-term problem for Biden, however, is that his politics don’t either.

Biden’s confident centrism stands in contrast with not just the rest of a leftward-moving Democratic field, but much of the country as a whole. His gambit, however, is simple: after a turbulent Donald Trump term, voters will want stability. If he keeps his head down, this logic goes, and avoids decisive topics, they’ll pick avuncular “Uncle Joe” over the caustic Trump. Stable, familiar leadership for an uncertain age, right?

Biden was conspicuously absent from the California Democratic convention last week, and the other candidates made thinly-veiled references to Biden being the way of the past, not future. They’re not wrong.

Biden rejects Trump's 'clenched fist' in appeal for Democratic and US unity Read more

We’ve seen this story before. Donald Trump offered voters something different. He spoke to their anger, and told them about his plans to “Make America Great Again”. In response, Hillary Clinton ran a campaign perpetually on the back foot – triangulating to avoid standing for anything too controversial, and presenting herself as the safe anti-Trump. If the Democrats had listened more carefully, they might have heard millions of Americans saying they weren’t too pleased with the last several decades of US politics. Clinton’s reply? Choose me. I’ve been in politics for 30 years.

The appeal was dull enough to lose even a supposedly “unlose-able” election against the gaffe-prone Trump, a disaster compounded by our undemocratic electoral college.

There’s little to stop this from happening again. Donald Trump has been a disaster in many ways, but – despite the best effort of his trade wars – the economy isn’t in the tank. He’s attacked the most vulnerable Americans, but his government is a far cry from the “fascism” some thought was on the horizon – yes, it’s rightwing and bad for working people, but mostly in the same way Republican administrations normally are. Simply pointing to the Trump administration and saying “this is not normal” won’t be enough to rally people into the voting booth.

Incumbent presidents have an enormous advantage. Four of the last five US presidents won second terms. We can’t assume that just any empty suit could take on Trump. And an empty suit is essentially what Biden would be.

To the extent Biden has even defined his politics, they’ve been to the right of not just the Democrats but the larger American political zeitgeist. He’s been talking with the Brookings Institution about cutting Medicare and Social Security; he supports unpopular trade deals; he complains about billionaires being demonized; he has a spotty record on civil rights; and he’s running as far as possible from Medicare for All, a proposal with the support of 70% of Americans.

It’s no wonder that our predatory private health insurance industry is openly hoping “Biden wins the Democratic nomination without changing his current view against single payer”.

Yet, so far, the rest of the Democratic field, including Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, have only haltingly criticized Biden. Perhaps this will change. It seems like campaigning has been going on forever but we’re actually still early in the season – the first debates don’t start until the end of the month.

Many progressives are understandably fearful that attacking the presumptive frontrunner might weaken him and give Trump ammunition for the general election. But challenging Biden’s record is important. For example, his core base of support – older Democrats – needs to know what an unreliable defender of Social Security and Medicare he is. By challenging him on his record, especially in the eyes of older, traditional Democratic voters, progressives could break the myth of Biden’s “electability”. (A strange trope given that Biden has tried and failed to be a presidential nominee since the 1980s.)

Although he seems to believe so, a Biden victory is not preordained. He could conceivably get edged out by a candidate, like Sanders, bold enough to offer a genuinely alternative vision for America – not just shielding us from the nightmare of Trump, but providing us with aspirations for the future.

Even if Sanders loses the primary, this strong anti-Biden stance might force the Democratic party to adopt more progressive positions that would actually help its chances against Trump. Not only is Medicare for All popular, but 60% of Americans support free college and a majority back a jobs guarantee. Big ideas to solve our social problems – and efforts to make the rich pay for them – are popular. Whoever challenges Trump will need to start adopting them.