As we approach the one year mark since Jason Kenney took the reins as Premier in Alberta, polling numbers released from Angus Reid this week tell an interesting tale.

The United Conservative Party has dropped from a 52 per cent electoral showing down to 40 today. With a somewhat clumsy first year in power, this isn’t too surprising. Communications blunders and the less than stellar performance from initiatives such as the Canada Energy Centre are taking their toll on government support. The budget doesn’t cut nearly enough spending to satisfy fiscal hawks while the rather modest spending restraint is still enough to inflame and draw the ire of public service unions. There are few people giving the UCP a thumbs up on any front right now and the polls are reflecting it.

Coming in today with 36 percent after taking 41 percent in the general election last year, Notley’s NDP is not faring any better. In opposition Notley has not been able to score any political points against Jason Kenney as she obsessively repeats her disproven mantra that the UCP government has handed out $4.7 billion to their “rich friends”. Her song is getting repetitive and tiresome. While the shine has faded with the UCP, Albertan’s remain unconvinced that another dose of the NDP is the answer.

Disenchanted Liberals managed to take over the Alberta Party a decade ago and have been loudly claiming that they will be ushering in a new era of government governing from the mythical “centre”. While the Alberta Party has been able to talk a strong game on social media and they have proven adept at gathering left-leaning floor crossers in the legislature, their support has always been moribund and remains so at a dismal eight percent. When your party stands for nothing it tends to draw nobody.

Under the steady hand of David Khan, the Alberta Liberal Paty has been completely obliterated and no longer even registers in polls.

With a showing of nine percent, the newly minted Alberta Independence Party (AIP) is the real newsmaker in today’s polling. This is a party that only got registered during the last election. They currently have no leader and their party organization itself is in utter disarray due to infighting and a lack of solid ground (or really any) organization. Despite all of these handicaps, the AIP is in a solid third place with enough support to be a spoiler at the least in future elections.

The AIP is still largely a shell of a party, and appears to be attracting support based more on its name than anything else at present. Imagine what the support numbers will be once the AIP gets a solid leader and starts actually organizing around the province.

We are in tumultuous times. Albertans are deeply dissatisfied confederation and they want to see change. While Kenney has held meetings throughout the province and talked a good game, with nearly a year in power he has failed to do a single substantial thing to change Alberta’s lot within Canada. People are beyond calling for the drafting and sending of angry letters to Ottawa. It is time for some solid legislative changes to start shielding the province from a federal government that is increasingly malevolent towards Alberta.

For a party to go from nothing to nearly 10 percent support in Alberta while not even having a leader is unprecedented. The AIP, Freedom Conservative Party, and Wexit Alberta have been dancing around merger talks for some time now. If those parties manage to get it together and if they find a strong leader, they will be a major player on Alberta’s political landscape. Unified, led, and organized, they could actually be competitive in a few seats, or potentially even become a contender.

I know, I know. “Polls are but snapshots in time”. Yes, indeed they are, but to dismiss the rise of a party which is little more than a concept right now yet is taking close to 10 per cent support is foolhardy. Either the UCP is going to cover its regionalist flank, or the AIP will be taking a very big bite out of it in the next election. The ball is in Kenney’s court right now, but it won’t remain so for long if Albertans don’t see some action soon.

With the COVID-19 pandemic and the pending world economic collapse dominating the headlines these days, the growth with the Alberta Independence Party and the broader independence movement is sliding under the headlines. With such a long period of instability and turmoil on the horizon, it is clear that the AIP isn’t going anywhere any time soon as people seek change from the status quo in a system that is failing them.

Cory Morgan is a columnist for the Western Standard