The Blue Jays have clearly thrown in the towel for this season. Already thin in starting pitching, with Aaron Sanchez battling blister problems, Jays general manager Ross Atkins traded left-hander Francisco Liriano to the Astros for a solid outfield prospect and veteran outfielder Nori Aoki. Then he sent key setup man Joe Smith to Cleveland for prospects.

We should get a sense of their direction with their payroll and roster decisions. Could president Mark Shapiro and Atkins be open to dealing away the final year of Josh Donaldson before he hits free agency and still intend or pretend to contend? How much will the Jays have available for off-season free agents?

The Payroll

The Jays’ opening day payroll for 2017 was $163.4 million (all figures in U.S. dollars), according to the respected website Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was the highest in the history of the franchise.

The Jays will be divesting themselves of $55.4 million in expiring free-agent contracts, led by Jose Bautista’s mutual option that the club will surely decline with a half-million dollar buyout. Bautista earned $18.5 million in 2017. Other free agents include Marco Estrada ($14M), J.P. Howell ($3M), Darwin Barney ($2.89M), Chris Coghlan ($3M) and Miguel Montero ($14M).

There are seven returning players in 2018 with guaranteed contracts totalling $75.9 million. That list includes Russ Martin and Troy Tulowitzki at $20 million each, J.A. Happ ($13M), Kendrys Morales ($11M), Steve Pearce ($6.25M), Justin Smoak ($4.125M), and Cuban prospect Lourdes Gurriel ($1M), who has a guaranteed, major-league, six-year deal.

A record nine Blue Jays will be eligible for salary arbitration next February, including Donaldson, starters Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, closer Roberto Osuna and centre fielder Kevin Pillar. The Jays will likely either trade or non-tender the contracts of Ezequiel Carrera and Aoki.

If the Jays do not trade Donaldson and the expected numbers are settled upon in arbitration, that group of seven will earn approximately $50 million, giving the Jays 14 players at $125.9 million. Assuming the Jays plan on entering 2018 with the same payroll they started 2017 with, that leaves about $37.5 million for 11 more controllable players or potential free-agent signings. That provides flexibility and the ability to make some off-season additions.

If Shapiro and Atkins chose to fill those remaining spots with internal options, pre-arbitration guys with major-league experience, they could do it with the likes of Dominic Leone, Joe Biagini, Ryan Tepera, Anthony Alford, Danny Barnes, Luke Maile, Rob Refsnyder, Dalton Pompey and Mike Bolsinger. That mix would combine to cost a mere $8.5-million, leaving the Jays around $29 million to spend on free-agency — and that’s with the Jays keeping Donaldson.

The Donaldson dilemma

The Blue Jays have Donaldson for one more year. He is one of the five best third basemen in baseball, but will join the Orioles’ Manny Machado and Washington outfielder Bryce Harper on the huge free-agent market following the 2018 season.

If the Jays keep Donaldson, they will still have three major holes to fill — two reliable starting pitchers and one hard-hitting corner outfielder. They could hang onto Donaldson for an arbitration salary of about $23 million, but they would lose him after next year because they will never be willing to give him a five-year deal of close to $30 million annually. Not for a 33-year-old Bringer of Rain who has just had a 2017 season of pain.

A trade this off-season could fill one of their immediate needs at the major-league level, while adding two or three top prospects. There are at least eight major-league teams that have the need and the financial resources to target the third baseman. A healthy Donaldson is very attractive for a team that could also sign him long term.

The 2018 outlook

If second baseman Devon Travis, who has yet to play a full major-league season, returns from his knee troubles and contributes, if Sanchez is over his blister problems, if Gurriel is ready to play in the majors, and if the Jays roll the dice and trade Donaldson, they just might contend.

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They would need to get a solid starting pitcher in the package for Donaldson, and use the payroll space to trade for another starter, plus an outfielder. It’s in the outfield where the Jays need to become more athletic.

Even if they do keep Donaldson for his farewell season, they will have payroll available to fill some of their needs, but ownership knows that fans at the ballpark and viewers across the country will not put up with reduced payroll and a rebuild. The people have put the Jays in a position where they must build a contender.

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