Israeli Analyst: No One Expected Netanyahu to Remain PM Following Election

Eskin noted that to begin with, few analysts had predicted a victory for the sitting Israeli prime minister and for his party.

"This is something that [no one] could have predicted or expected. Public opinion polls all showed something different. I cannot remember any poll which gave the Likud Party more than 25 seats in parliament, [while] the final outcome was 30 seats, which leaves us with huge question marks. I'm not speaking about conspiracy theories, but how can we trust any research, polls or any of these pre-election activities if it is so far [removed] from any truth or reality? It's amazing."

The analyst stated that "everybody was very much surprised" by Likud's victory, "because the gap between all the polls during the election campaign was so different from the final outcome. It's something that [has] never happened in Israel." In fact, Eskin is not sure if "something like this has ever happened in any democratic, civilized country."

Eskin pointed to polls from a few days before the election showing Likud losing 3-4 seats stating that the erroneous predictions "make us [feel] very much frustrated." The expert asked who would spend their money "to undermine the prime minister's chances and his party's chances to such an extent that the picture [would be] totally different" from the reality. The political analyst recalled that Netanyahu himself had speculated about the possible involvement of "so-called non-governmental organizations" with ties to the US State Department or "sponsored by the American government," noting that this theory "still has to be investigated, and we are probably talking about very large amounts of money. I mean it's obvious that there were some interventions, but we should be very careful about the language we use in defining [them]."

Eskin argued that Netanyahu's security promises to conservative Israelis will require him to continue his hardline approach to Palestine, stating that the peace process has not borne fruit, and adding that "Israel has to be very careful not to make mistakes, to realize that American President Obama is not the kind of person who can really satisfy the needs of the people of Israel or the needs of our neighbors." The analyst noted that Israel must look at "the US peace initiatives in Syria, Libya, and Iraq," which make it clear that "we have to be very careful with any American initiative."

Asked about what changes he predicts for Israeli-Russian relations in the near future, Eskin noted that in his view, there will be "no immediate changes," but the possibility for change exists in the future. He argued that if the US supports the UN resolution on Palestinian statehood, "and if America openly supports this resolution not just at the UN [General Assembly] but also in the Security Council, this can "slowly and quietly" push Israel toward Russia.

Recalling an op-ed published last week by an Israeli civic figure who argued that it is time for Israel and Russia to create a strategic partnership, Eskin noted that in his view, Israel "is in a position to solve" Russia's need for foreign technologies for its economic development, "and quite easily. Moscow understands this very well. On the other hand, Russia [would have] no real problem [in vetoing] any strongly anti-Israeli resolution at the UN and the Security Council." Eskin clarified that this wouldn't "mean that Russia will support Israeli policies, no. But Russia did not support Iran's policies, but vetoed many American resolutions in the Security Council" nevertheless. The analyst notes that political support in exchange for technology "is the deal that can be reached between Russia and Israel now, and this is the last thing that America would be interested in, but then again, Obama is doing his best [to ensure] that Putin and Netanyahu will cut the deal."

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