Team betting trends for Thursday night’s Jets-Giants preseason opener don’t mean anything.

How NFL rosters perform straight up and against the spread in exhibition action is typically tied to the priorities of their current head coach. Pat Shurmur is in only his second season leading the Giants. Adam Gase is making his Jets’ debut.

So, anything you might notice about Gase’s three years as head coach of the Miami Dolphins is more likely to matter than Jets trends over the last three, five or 10 seasons. Shurmur has a long career as an assistant, but a limited sample size running a full team.

How should smart bettors play this game? If there’s no edge, smart bettors will pass. A quick and easy way to begin handicapping a football game is to determine the projected “market” score from the point spread and total. Global sportsbooks haven’t budged much off openers of Jets -2 with an Over/Under of 33. Let’s use those numbers because the math is so easy. They would project a final score of Jets 17.5, Giants 15.5 (the Jets are 2 points higher and the sum adds up to 33).

Does either of those projected scores strike you as vulnerable?

If you think the Jets are more likely to reach 18 or more, while the rebuilding Giants make more sense for 15 or less, then the Jets are the play. But if you think the Jets may have trouble executing immediately as they adjust to a new coach, taking points with the G-Men could be appealing.

For the Over/Under, if you see both teams clearing their individual threshold, an Over bet is obvious. Same for the Under if you don’t see either team getting there. Neither Denver nor Atlanta made it last week in the Hall of Fame Game that ended 14-10 against a projected score of 18.75 to 16.25.

This 33 for Jets-Giants is the second-lowest total this week in the whole NFL, above only the 32 for Jaguars-Ravens. Oddsmakers and sharps clearly believe both offenses will struggle. Have you seen anything in local media coverage of practices that trumps their skepticism?

The great thing about this analytical approach is that it forces you to think about the market. You’re not making knee-jerk bets on your favorite team regardless of price. You’re not falling prey to trends or angles. You’re thinking about real-world skillsets and how they’ll interact to reach a target.

Thursday’s market nod to the Jets is in line with sentiment across the full spectrum of betting options. As VSiN discussed earlier this week, the Jets have a higher projected win total (7¹/₂, compared to six for the Giants). The Jets are 75/1 to win the Super Bowl at William Hill, the Giants 100/1. Respected power ratings currently project the Jets as a slight favorite when the teams meet again at MetLife Stadium during the regular season.