A DESPERATE PLEA: As recently as last Friday, U.S. Navy officials were downplaying the outbreak of coronavirus infection that has sidelined the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, insisting that none of the ship’s 4,000-plus sailors were seriously ill and describing the carrier’s stop in Guam as a “previously scheduled port visit” that would not prevent the massive warship from being able to respond to any crisis in the region.

But the ship’s captain told a very different story in a four-page letter to senior military officials, obtained by the San Francisco Chronicle. “We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our Sailors,” wrote Capt. Brett Crozier, noting that maintaining social distancing was proving impossible on the carrier and that more than 100 crew members were now infected.

Crozier asked for permission to isolate his entire crew ashore while the ship is disinfected, something that would take the supercarrier out of commision for an undetermined amount of time.

“Removing the majority of personnel from a deployed U.S. nuclear aircraft carrier and isolating them for two weeks may seem like an extraordinary measure ... This is a necessary risk,” Crozier wrote. “Keeping over 4,000 young men and women on board the TR is an unnecessary risk and breaks faith with those Sailors entrusted to our care.”

ESPER — NOT ‘AT THAT POINT’: On the CBS Evening News last night, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the Navy is not ready to evacuate the ship. “I don't think we're at that point,” he told CBS’s Norah O'Donnell. “We are moving a lot of supplies and assistance, medical assistance, out to the carrier in Guam. We are providing additional medical personnel as they need it. I am pleased to report that none of them are seriously ill.”

Asked about the captain’s desperate plea, Esper said: “I have not had a chance to read that letter, read in detail. I'm going to rely on the Navy chain of command to go out there to assess the situation and to make sure they provide the captain and the crew all the support they need to get the sailors healthy and get the ship back at sea.”

But he agreed with Crozier on one point. “Well nobody, of course, needs to die, at this point in time, we are not at war,” Esper said. “Priority No. 1 is taking care of our service members and their families.”

‘NOT THE SAME AS A CRUISE SHIP’: “We’re very engaged in this, we’re very concerned about it, and we’re taking all the appropriate steps,” acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly told CNN yesterday.

“We don’t disagree with the [captain] on that ship, and we’re doing it in a very methodical way because it’s not the same as a cruise ship, that ship has armaments on it, it has aircraft on it, we have to be able to fight fires if there are fires on board the ship. We have to run a nuclear power plant, so there’s a lot of things that we have to do on that ship that make it a little bit different and unique, but we’re managing it, and we’re working through it,” Modly said.

“We have been working actually the last seven days to move those sailors off the ship and get them into accommodations in Guam. The problem is that Guam doesn’t have enough beds right now, and we’re having to talk to the government there to see if we can get some hotel space, create tent-type facilities,” he said.

NOT THE FLU: At the White House yesterday, officials said even with robust mitigation measures, between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die in the coming months.

President Trump said advisers initially told him that 100,000 was “a very low number” and that “it's unlikely you'll be able to attain that.”

“Think of what would have happened if we didn't do anything,” Trump said. “I've had many friends, businesspeople, people with great, actually, common sense, they said, ‘Why don't we ride it out?’ A lot of people have said, a lot of people have thought about it, ride it out, don't do anything, just ride it out. And think of it as the flu.”

“But it's not the flu, it's vicious,” he continued. “When you send a friend to the hospital and you call up to find out, how is he doing? … He's in a coma. This is not the flu.”

As of this morning, the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University reports almost 190,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 4,000 deaths in the United States.

‘VERY, VERY PAINFUL TWO WEEKS’: “I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We're going to go through a very tough two weeks,” Trump said yesterday. “And then hopefully, as the experts are predicting, as I think a lot of us are predicting after having studied it so hard, you're going to start seeing some real light at the end of the tunnel. But this is going to be a very painful — very, very painful two weeks.

THE DOD NUMBERS: As of 5 a.m. March 31, the total number of DOD coronavirus cases is 1,259, including four deaths. New numbers for Tuesday will be released later this morning.

Current Cases Hospitalized Recovered Deaths Military 673 (+104)

31 (+5)

42 (+8)

1 (+1)

Civilian 247 (+27)

17 (+1)

5 (+1)

1

Dependent 212 (+22)

13 (+3)

4

1

Contractor 72 (+8)

4

0

1



(+ = increase since Monday)

FIRST DEATH AT STATE: “We’ve had a State Department official pass away as a result of this virus, one of our team members,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced at yesterday's briefing for reporters. Pompeo provided no other details but called the death “tragic.”

“Our hearts go out to the family and loved ones of the State Department employee who has been lost to COVID-19,” said New York Democrat Rep. Eliot Engel and Texas Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “We know that diplomacy can be dangerous work, but that knowledge does nothing to soften the blow when tragedy strikes. State Department personnel are on the front lines of this crisis. They are working around the clock to ensure the safety of Americans and with other governments as we all rally together to grapple with this challenge.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by David Sivak. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense .

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HAPPENING TODAY: The Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, the medical school for the military at Walter Reed, is holding its first-ever virtual graduation ceremony for the class of 2020.

The medical students and advanced practice nursing students are being graduated several weeks early to help support their colleagues in the military during the global coronavirus pandemic.

Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville will provide the commencement address, and Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen will also provide remarks congratulating the graduates in ceremonies on Facebook at 1 p.m.

ALSO TODAY: The Friends of the National World War II Memorial holds a brief private ceremony and wreath presentation at the U.S. Marine Corps War Memorial in Arlington, Virginia, to mark the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Okinawa, the last major battle of World War II, and one of the bloodiest.

“On April 1, 1945, Easter Sunday, the Navy’s Fifth Fleet and more than 180,000 U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps troops descended on the Pacific island of Okinawa for a final push towards Japan,” according to History.com . “The invasion was part of Operation Iceberg, a complex plan to invade and occupy the Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa. Though it resulted in an Allied victory, kamikaze fighters, rainy weather and fierce fighting on land, sea and air led to a large death toll on both sides.”

Livestream at https://www.facebook.com/WWIIMemorialFriends .

COMMUTING UNDER STAY-AT-HOME ORDERS: With Maryland, Virgina, and the District of Columbia all ordering residents to stay at home except for essential travel, the Pentagon has issued guidance to its military and civilian workers making clear they can still report to work without violating the local restrictions.

“The restrictions … do not preclude DoD civilian employees and military members from traveling to or from where they perform their official duties,” writes Paul Ney, the Pentagon’s general counsel in a memo issued last night.

In addition, the Pentagon has posted a handy, printer-ready, official letter in PDF form that can be presented to anyone in authority who questions whether workers are violating state restrictions by going to work.

“If questioned by state or local officials in these jurisdictions, DoD civilian employees and military members may use this memorandum in conjunction with their Common Access Card (CAC) to identify themselves and explain they are traveling for, or to and from, official DoD business.”

‘SOME PROGRESS’ IN AFGHANISTAN: At yesterday’s State Department briefing, Pompeo said that since his visit to Kabul late last month, there has, in his words, been “some progress on the political front” in Afghanistan.

Despite both claiming to have won the presidential election, both incumbent President Ashraf Ghani, and challenger Abdullah Abdullah have apparently agreed on a negotiating team to begin talks with the Taliban.

“So that’s good news. We’ve seen a team identified,” Pompeo said. “Looks like it’s pretty inclusive, pretty broad. We’re happy about that. We’ve begun to see some work done on prisoner releases as well, all elements that have to come together so we can get to the intra-Afghan negotiations, which will ultimately prove to be the only mechanism that has any hope of delivering peace and reconciliation to the people of Afghanistan.”

Asked if the U.S. might restore the $1 billion in aid Pompeo canceled after he was unable to convince the two men to form a unity government, the secretary said, “We will constantly reevaluate our posture with respect to Afghanistan, not only the security assistance and humanitarian aid and assistance we provide to them.”

“We’ll constantly evaluate it. We want to see progress on every element,” including, he said, from the Taliban. “We have every expectation that the Taliban will hold up their end of the agreements.”

TRACKING CIVCAS SOMALIA: The U.S. Africa Command has announced it will begin providing quarterly public reports of its investigations into civilian casualties.

“This initiative is designed to increase transparency regarding civilian casualty allegations that are reported to the command and will demonstrate the U.S. military’s constant commitment to minimizing collateral damage in the pursuit of military operations,” said AFRICOM in a news release .

“Since I took command last year, we have been reviewing and revising our CIVCAS tracking, assessment and reporting procedures,” said Africa Commander Gen. Stephen Townsend. “To demonstrate our transparency and commitment to protecting civilians from unnecessary harm, we plan to publicize our initial report by the end of this month and we will provide quarterly updates thereafter.”

TURKISH BUILDUP IN SYRIA: Turkey has deployed roughly a division, about 20,000 troops, to Syria’s Idlib province in the last two months, changing the military balance, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War .

“The deployments include experienced Turkish special forces, armored units, and light infantry (aka "commando") units that participated in prior Turkish operations in Afrin and northeast Syria, including the 5th Commando Brigade, which specializes in paramilitary operations and mountain warfare,” the think tank says. “These forces established a new front line against pro-Assad regime forces west of the M5 highway, changing the military balance in Idlib and thereby compelling Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a new de-escalation deal on March 5.”

“However, Russia and Turkey have already failed to implement key elements of the deal, including joint patrols along the M4 highway. Turkey continues to reinforce its positions in Idlib in preparation for possible resumption of hostilities,” it adds.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: 'The surge is coming': Trump warns of 'very painful two weeks'

Washington Examiner: Coronavirus-infected service members continue to increase as first military death announced

The Hill: Defense Chief Says States Can Use National Guard To Enforce Stay-At-Home Orders

Washington Examiner: Coronavirus pandemic triggers ideological showdown between US and China as world watches

Wall Street Journal: Iran’s Hard-Liners Clash With Government In Struggle To Contain Coronavirus

Washington Examiner: Fears of biological warfare linger, while experts say coronaviruses cannot be controlled

Kitsap Sun: Navy Barred By Pentagon From Disclosing Coronavirus Cases While Carrier Outbreak Continues

USNI News: Navy Can’t Afford to Slow Pilot Training Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

Air Force Magazine: USAF Taps More Missions to Join Space Force

Marine Corps Times: All 1st Marine Division Units Will Train At Their Home Station, No More Twentynine Palms Trips For Now

NPR: Marine Corps Aims To Tackle Evolving Face Of White Supremacy

Air Force Magazine: Priority Test Programs Ramping Up After COVID-19

New York Times: Problems in F.B.I. Wiretap Applications Go Beyond Trump Aide Surveillance, Review Finds

AP: United Nations Urges Cease-Fire In Afghanistan Amid COVID-19 Concerns

USNI News: COVID-19 Presents Additional Obstacle To Afghan Peace Process

Defense News: Workforce Cuts In April Could Hinder U.S.-South Korea Negotiations

Calendar

NOTE: Many events in Washington have been canceled or moved online in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Pentagon has been conducting almost-daily pop-up briefings, which are often only announced at the last minute. Check https://www.defense.gov for updates to the Pentagon’s schedule.

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 1

8 a.m. — Defense Writers Group audio conference call with Vice Adm. Thomas Moore commander, Naval Sea Systems Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu

5:30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace online discussion on "Crisis Upon Crisis: The Geopolitical & Economic Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic." Livestream at https://carnegie-mec.org .

8 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs hosts a webcast, a film screening and discussion on "The Report," a 2019 film based on actual events and focusing on the efforts of Senate staffer Daniel Jones to investigate the CIA's Detention and Interrogation Program created in the aftermath of 9/11, with Jones, former staff member to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. https://elliott.gwu.edu/event-calendar#/?i=2

THURSDAY | APRIL 2

12:15 p.m. — New America discussion webcast on the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation's annual report on U.S. hostage and detainee policy, "Bringing Americans Home 2020,” with report author Cynthia Loertscher; former Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Lisa Monaco, partner at O'Melveny and Myers; Diane Foley, president and founder of the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation; and Peter Bergen, vice president of New America. Webcast: https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events/bringing-americans-home-2020