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Last Four In

On the Outside Looking In

*NOTE: This is NOT the actual field of 24 for the NCAA FCS Championship. This analysis was compiled by our Director of Athletics Web Operationsand in no way reflects a specific opinion of JMU Athletics as a whole regarding the upcoming playoffs. This is an exercise in guessing the bracket field for fans of JMU (or other FCS institutions) to get a glimpse of what the bracket COULD look like and potential first round opponents for the Dukes. Certainly this is an opinion piece to be discussed and debated leading up to Sunday's 11 a.m. selection show on ESPNU.Currently on a six-game winning streak and closing in on a possible FCS Playoff Berth, JMU closes the regular season Saturday, Nov. 22 when it hosts CAA newcomer Elon at noon. The team will recognize its 2014 senior class in a pregame ceremony, with tickets available by contacting the JMU Ticket Office at 540-568-3853 or online at JMUSports.com/tickets. Students can begin reserving their tickets for Elon today, as the dorms and dining halls will stay open until 5 p.m. on Nov. 22 to accommodate the game. Also tickets can be reserved for a possible first-round home playoff game - for more information check out the story here * Indicates First Round home teamThis exercise was completed in a fashion similar to that of the selection committee with the eight seeded teams determined first. Once the seeds were in place, the remaining teams were matched up, with an emphasis on geographic proximity when possible, and placed in the bracket in a fashion that tries to avoid Second Round matchups of teams within the same conference.This bracket is based upon projected resumes through the conclusion of the regular season, NOT where a team currently stands headed into the final week.The following outcomes were predicted for this weekend in order to make these projections and determine the "bubble" teams:William and Mary DEFEATS RichmondMontana State DEFEATS MontanaNorthern Arizona DEFEATS Southern UtahCoastal Carolina DEFEATS LibertyNorth Dakota State DEFEATS Youngstown StateIndiana State DEFEATS Western IllinoisSouth Dakota State DEFEATS South DakotaBryant DEFEATS WagnerBucknell DEFEATS ColgateSam Houston State DEFEATS Central Arkansas1. North Dakota State2. New Hampshire3. Coastal Carolina4. Jacksonville State5. Eastern Washington6. Illinois State7. Fordham8. VillanovaEveryone in the country probably hopes that North Dakota State doesn't secure the top spot and earn home field throughout the playoffs, but the reality is that the Bison have an FBS win (again) and despite the loss to UNI still probably boast the best resume as the top team in the top-ranked conference. NDSU at home as the top seed will be difficult to unseat in the FargoDome. Spots two through six seem pretty certain to get seeds, perhaps in a slightly different order. Villanova also seems like a fairly safe bet, though the Wildcats will have to survive a rivalry game with a dangerous Delaware squad, an "upset" that could give the Blue Hens the remotest hope of sneaking into the field. Fordham may be the most likely of our prediction not to earn a seed. However, the Rams have a legitimate chance to knock off Army this weekend, and the Patriot League in many years has been treated well by the committee. The committee might hesitate to give a third seeded team to any conference, so the real threat to Fordham might be Chattanooga.James Madison, Montana State, Northern Iowa, *Sacred Heart, Eastern Kentucky, *San Diego, *Chattanooga, SE LouisianaWhether by automatic bid (*) or by a strong at-large resume, the above teams look to be in pretty good shape for a spot in the field of 24 with all but perhaps Chattanooga looking at a likely Nov. 29 spot in the opening round. A loss this weekend by any of the above teams shouldn't hurt their chances.South Dakota State, Northern Arizona, Bucknell, Sam Houston StateBethune-Cookman, Cal Poly, Richmond, Youngstown State, Stephen F. AustinAs with any NCAA bracket, the most heated discussion often surrounds the bubble. Some bubble spots are pretty clear. The MEAC seems likely to get one team into the field. So the league's automatic qualifier is in with North Carolina A&T in the driver seat. The William and Mary vs. Richmond rivalry game is a de facto play-in game with the winner likely in and the loser perhaps the last team left off the table. With an FBS win, Indiana State probably earned a spot with last week's win but can't afford a slip up at Western Illinois this week. Bryant has been ranked for much of the season before last week's loss to Sacred Heart. While the NEC sits lower down in the conference rankings, the Bulldogs have a reasonable resume that includes two CAA wins. Bucknell and Sam Houston State are both trying to earn second bids for their respective conferences. The Bison have a tough argument with a ledger full of victories against losing teams, but enough teams may have fallen in week 12 to open the door just enough for the Bison to rush through. Sam Houston State is a team with some name recognition recently on the FCS level and has already reached the seven-win benchmark. Bethune-Cookman had a good season going until getting knocked off at Hampton on Thursday, a loss that might not overcome a FBS win over FIU. Cal Poly also suffered a devastating loss against UC Davis. Youngstown State has a quality resume but might have to beat North Dakota State in order to get in, a tall task for sure in the FargoDome. Stephen F. Austin is exceeding expectations after a coaching change in the offseason but needs a win this week just to reach seven wins to have any shot at a spot. Both Northern Arizona and South Dakota State have FBS losses and a non-Division I victory, putting both at 7-3 against FCS schools with a win this weekend. As the third team in the Big Sky and fifth team in the Missouri Valley, both should have good arguments for a spot with victories. Again, the NCAA has used seven Division I wins as a benchmark for FCS selection with the only exception to the rule usually being automatic qualification as a conference winner. Teams that do not reach seven wins in this analysis were not seriously considered for a spot in the field of 24. That means teams like Liberty, Charleston Southern, Delaware, Cal Poly, Montana, Northern Arizona, South Dakota State, Central Arkansas and Stephen F. Austin HAVE to win this week in order to be considered or they are at the mercy of the NCAA making an exception to a rule that has rarely had an exception.