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The growing power of the Labour Left was demonstrated this week when pro-Corbyn group Momentum announced it had more than 40,000 members – making it larger than some political parties.

The clout of Left in Wales – where Momentum says it has more than 2,000 members – will be demonstrated in the deputy leadership contest and in the future race to succeed First Minister Carwyn Jones.

Momentum in Wales is joined to Welsh Labour Grassroots (WLG) which is backing Cardiff North AM Julie Morgan for the deputy leadership.

(Image: Peter Byrne/PA Wire)

Professor Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre sees Welsh Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford – an early supporter of Jeremy Corbyn – as the favourite to succeed the First Minister if he enters the eventual race.

He said: “He will be supported by the Corbynites, he will be supported by the small ‘n’ nationalist wing of the party, he is widely respected amongst the more centrist people as well so I think he would win.”

Underscoring the importance of the Left in the modern party in Wales, he said: “The Corbynite wing of the Labour party in Wales is extremely powerful...

“The left-nationalist bit of Labour overlaps quite a lot – at least in some parts of Wales – with the Corbynista wing. It adds a really interesting dynamic to the whole question of who replaces Carwyn and how that plays out.”

Other AMs on the Left who are considered potential contenders are Pontypridd AM and former Counsel General Mick Antoniw and Swansea East AM Mike Hedges.

(Image: South Wales Echo)

Prof Jones said: “I would suspect that if Mark doesn’t stand then one or both of them will have a go and will do extremely well, I would have thought, on the basis of being seen as good Corbynites. It’s a hugely important factor...

“I think lots of people who aren’t in the Labour party just don’t understand how much the Labour party has changed over the last few years.”

He underscored the significance of Momentum passing the 40,000-member milestone, saying: “That is an extraordinary achievement. You would not have predicted that.

“They have kept going. They haven’t succumbed to the usual tendency on the Left to split.

“It is pretty incredible, really. Until very recently, people were saying the age of the political party is over, the mass party is dead – well, the SNP and the Labour party have single-handedly given the lie to that kind of argument.”

Pontypridd AM Mr Antoniw said that in Wales the “whole concept” of Momentum was “already up and running in Wales” before the UK-wide movement was born.

He said: “Welsh Labour Grassroots existed and that was basically an opportunity for those towards the Left of the party [to] get together... When Momentum was formed it was quite natural that Welsh Labour Grassroots became the Welsh chapter or Welsh voice of Momentum – very much behind Jeremy Corbyn.”

He said people were drawn to the movement because they “want to see the Labour party with a far clearer vision of what it stands for” and often because they are not happy with the “way society operates”.

Looking ahead to the future Welsh leadership election, he said people wanted to see “someone who is clear, who has a vision” and who “has a high degree of integrity”.

But when asked if he would enter the race, he said: “There will be a candidate from the left, undoubtedly. I think it’s far too early for people to start putting their hat in the ring...

“Carwyn is still the First Minister. We’ll just have to wait and see what Carwyn chooses to do over the course of the next 12 months or so.”

The rise of Momentum has been portrayed as a challenge to the more centrist politicians, with speculation that some could face reselection challenges, but Mr Antoniw argued that Welsh Labour AMs and MPs did not need to be nervous about the rise of the movement.

He said: “I don’t think so at all... I think it has always been important within the Labour party that elected representatives, whether they are Assembly Members, councillors or MPs, are accountable in some way to the party that selects them, that they have to show that, one, they are delivering in terms of doing the work necessary to represent the area, but secondly, that they are paying proper attention to the politics and the views that are being expressed by constituency Labour parties, which are becoming more political.”

Mr Antoniw said “quite a lot” of the people who had been drawn to the party under Mr Corbyn’s leadership had a religious background.

He suspected this was because they admired the “evangelical sort of zeal to politics that fits in with a more traditional Christian thinking in terms of poverty, society, equality, homelessness”.

Darren Williams, the Secretary of WLG and a member of Labour’s National Executive Committee, said members last year made a “particularly valuable contribution” in helping the party win Cardiff North from the Conservatives in last year’s general election.

He claimed Momentum had “played a hugely positive role in the revitalisation of the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership”.

A key question is how much interest people who have been attracted to Labour and Momentum because of Mr Corbyn’s leadership will take in specifically Welsh politics.

Swansea West Labour MP Geraint Davies described Momentum as an “important voice” in the party but said: “My experience is the core campaigning in the party and on the ground is still done by the people who always did it. New activists are always welcome.”