Former Vice President Joe Biden is polling well, but there are signs Biden’s lead is somewhat shaky, and his initial supporters could be up for grabs for other candidates. | AP Photo/Nati Harnik 2020 Elections Biden’s Hamlet act ripples across 2020 field Prospective Democratic candidates, donors and staffers are frozen in place until the former VP makes his decision.

The Democratic presidential primary is waiting on Joe.

Candidates-in-waiting admit former Vice President Joe Biden is a factor in their decision-making. Democratic donors and bundlers are sitting on their wallets. Then there’s the pool of seasoned campaign hands in wait-and-see mode, closely attuned to Biden’s next move.


The shadow Biden casts over the Democratic field is a sign of his stature in the party — as the loyal No. 2 of the party’s beloved President Barack Obama, his polling numbers place him in the front-runner ranks — but it’s also a reflection of the lane he would occupy if he were to run.

Biden’s appeal to the white working class and moderates puts him squarely in the path of possible candidates like former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe — and it’s coloring their deliberations about the race.

Biden said last week that he is “very close” to a decision, and that it might come as early as April .

“I’m not doing anything until I find out what Terry is doing. And I don’t believe Terry will run if Biden does. It’s kind of a two-for,” said Chris Korge, who raised more for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 bid than any other bundler in the nation.

“Terry has probably 25 percent of the major fundraisers and bundlers in the country waiting on him,” Korge said, estimating that McAuliffe could raise $60 million from them in the opening months of a campaign. “But maybe three quarters of the donors saying they’re sitting out because of Biden might not be there for him if he ran. They’re using him as an excuse.”

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A source close to McAuliffe confirmed that “Terry is watching Biden and feels that they appeal to a similar set of voters, but Biden’s decision will not be determinative of Terry’s.”

Similarly, a source familiar with Bloomberg’s decision-making process said of Biden that “he’s a factor. He’s not the factor.” As a self-made billionaire who’s ready to spend as much as $500 million in the 2020 cycle, Bloomberg is already polling and conducting focus groups.

Bloomberg had planned to announce his intentions last month and then postponed it to this month, leading to speculation that Biden’s presence was causing a delay — a position denied by Bloomberg aides. They say that, contrary to conventional wisdom in progressive circles, there’s a relatively broad base of moderate Democratic voters in the primary who won’t vote against a candidate simply for being a white man.

Biden should be in no rush to decide, said pollster John Anzalone, who worked for Obama’s campaign and is affiliated with no presidential election efforts currently.

“Biden has the luxury of time,” Anzalone said. “The only ones worrying about Biden are campaign consultants, campaign staff, insiders and reporters. Real voters aren’t out there screaming that he’s not making a decision in February or March. And I applaud him for it.”

Nationally, Biden pulls about 30 percent of the primary vote and is well ahead of second-place Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). But there are signs Biden’s lead is somewhat shaky , and his initial supporters could be up for grabs for other candidates. More than two-thirds of Democratic voters in last week’s POLITICO/Morning Consult poll described themselves as still up for grabs when it comes to the 2020 primaries, and more than half of those say Biden would be one of their top choices.

One of Biden’s most loyal backers, Obama’s former Florida campaign adviser Steve Schale, said he’s among a number of consultants waiting on an announcement. Until then, Schale said he’s “absolutely” not looking at other campaigns.

Biden and his coterie of supporters know the race would be a challenge if he runs, said Schale, who pushed back on the notion that the former vice president is another older white male candidate with support that’s a mile wide and an inch deep. As Obama’s wingman in office, Biden earned chits with nonwhite voters and progressives as well, he said.

“Joe Biden’s support is real. And it’s not like it comes from one lane,” Schale said. “Biden does fairly well with African-American and Hispanic voters, too. And if your lane crosses Joe Biden’s, it’s going to give you some thought.”

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, for instance, has deferred to Biden on running.

Bill Hyers, a consultant who specializes in running progressive campaigns, asserts that Biden only has so much heft and had run two prior presidential campaigns that were “disasters.”

“For the candidates I talk to and the people that I deal with, I don't think he casts a super-serious shadow,” Hyers said. “He's a very convenient excuse if you want one. But I think the people who are serious about running for president are getting in, come hide nor hair.”

As Hyers pointed out, other candidates who have some overlap with Biden are moving ahead anyway.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced his bid for president Friday. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper’s campaign announcement is expected as soon as today. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown looks close to running as well.

“I’m not sure I abide by the wisdom that there’s lanes and that there’s only so much room in each lane or which lane Sen. Brown or Vice President Biden fit into,” said Ohio attorney Michael Wager, a co-chair for a draft Brown movement. He described Brown as a “pragmatic populist” who “ends up being a bridge between the emerging or reemerging progressive flank and the establishment flank.”

Financiers like Korge say all the new candidates would pose a problem for Biden, especially if he’s the front-runner along with the kick-me sign that goes with it.

“I’m not talking about Republicans going after him. I’m talking about Democrats,” Korge said. “There are no rules in politics. So it’s game on if he goes.”

Steven Shepard contributed to this report.