Are those the green shoots of an alts revival? Or will Crypto Winter kill off the tender beginnings of new crypto life?

It’s been a tough bear market. Crypto Winter has stretched on for over 15 months, with the price of bitcoin down almost 85% from its peak at one point.

Alts, too, have been hammered. Often alts are hit worse than BTC; if traders see bitcoin falling, they sell alts for bitcoin, and then convert that to dollars. The process of exiting alts for dollars therefore entails giving bitcoin a kick along the way.

The last seven weeks have seen the total crypto market cap correct upwards. From a low of $112 billion on 8 February, crypto now stands at $141: a 26% rise. But within that, not all cryptos are the same.

We’ll start with bitcoin’s market cap. Since the start of February, bitcoin has soared around 20%, from $59 billion to $71 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Dominance has drifted a little lower, from 54% to just over 50%. Dominance is a key metric for the ecosystem. While Maximalists want to see it rise and take this as a signal of the health of Bitcoin, the opposite is actually true: falling dominance indicates that alts are outpacing bitcoin, and that money will likely coming into bitcoin on the way to alts. In a bear market, traders shift funds to the crypto safe haven of BTC. Rising Dominance shows a bear market is still under way.

So, Dominance is falling – a little. The main thing is not the amount, but the direction of travel. And what do we see from the alts?

The market cap excluding bitcoin stood at $52 billion on 8 February. Now it’s $70 billion: a 35% rise. Alts have outpaced bitcoin’s growth by almost double.

Is this Alts Season – that wonderful time when the alts soar in value, powered not only by their own rise but the rising price of BTC? Right now, it’s too soon to say. It could be part of nothing more than a correction upwards before the final leg down in the bear market. But watch that total market cap, because it indicates that new money is coming in and has been for 7 weeks. The direction of travel right now is good.

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