By Alan J. Steinberg

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump will come to Wildwood to stage one of his patented rallies. The purpose of the president’s appearance is to boost the reelection prospects of Jeff Van Drew, a Democratic congressman turned Republican after he voted against Trump’s impeachment on Dec. 18.

Trump acolytes are claiming that the large demand for tickets to the rally is evidence of a surge in Trump’s popularity in New Jersey. That is laughable and reminiscent of remarks that 1984 Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale made to his staff with one week to go in the campaign. He predicted a victory for himself based on the large attendance at his rallies and other campaign events. On Election Day, Mondale lost 49 of 50 states in a record landslide to Ronald Reagan.

The rally in Wildwood comes at a time when Trump is facing the prospect of a landslide defeat in November, nationally and in New Jersey. Three national polls this past week, by CNN, Pew Research Center and others showed that a majority of Americans want the Senate to vote in favor of the House-passed Articles of Impeachment to remove Donald Trump from office.

Yet aside from Trump’s impeachable misconduct in office, there is an even more compelling factor pointing to his rejection at the polls in November. Donald Trump, the worst racist in the White House since Woodrow Wilson, has become indisputably the most despised president by the African-American community during the past century.

In a recent Star-Ledger column, I noted the appalling record of the Trump administration on issues particularly affecting the African- American community, including voter suppression, police brutality, and the president’s own racist rhetoric. This record now is having dire consequences for Trump’s re-election prospects.

According to a Washington Post-IPSOS poll released within the past month, more than 8 in 10 black Americans say they believe Trump is a racist and that he has made racism a bigger problem in the country. Nine in 10 disapprove of his job performance overall.

The drop-off in African-American turnout from 66% in the presidential election of 2012 to 59% in 2016 that was the major factor in Hillary Clinton losing the three battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and therefore, the election. It was the increase of 10.8% in African-American turnout in the 2018 midterms, as compared to the last midterm in 2014, sparked by anger at Trump, that was perhaps the major factor in the Democratic gain of 40 seats in the House of Representatives. The increase in the African-American vote in 2020 will have a major impact in New Jersey, which has an African-American population of 13.5%, with a similar percentage in the 2nd District, where the African-American population is 12.7%.

Running as a Democrat in 2018 against Seth Grossman, Jeff Van Drew carried the African-American vote overwhelmingly. Grossman’s rhetoric and social media were viewed as so racially offensive that the National Republican Congressional Committee withdrew its support from him and urged that he reconsider his candidacy.

Running as a Republican, Van Drew will have the opposite experience in 2020. While there’s absolutely no indication Van Drew is racist, anger at Trump will result in a major increase in the African-American vote, including in the 2nd District. The fact that Van Drew has been emphatically endorsed by Trump will doom the incumbent congressman to receive less than 20% of the African-American vote in November. This defection of a core 2018 Van Drew constituency will be a major factor in his defeat.

And the likelihood that Van Drew’s Democratic opponent will be South Jersey native Amy Kennedy further dooms him to an abysmal showing in the African-American community. Amy Kennedy is married to former U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island -- the son of the late U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy and nephew of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, a civil rights hero and one of the most popular politicians in the history of the African-American community.

It is the vision of Robert Kennedy on the evening of the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., speaking to African-Americans in Indianapolis, Indiana and successfully appealing for calm that is the alternative to the racially polarizing vision of the Trump rally.

On Election Day, 2020, Amy Kennedy and images of Bobby Kennedy in Indianapolis will triumph over the polarizing vision of Jeff Van Drew, Donald Trump, and the forthcoming Trump rally.

Alan J. Steinberg served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.

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