This week’s summit of European heads of government will be decisive because failure to reach agreement on how to manage the migration crisis could deal a fatal blow to the European project.

For this reason the European Union must address the fundamental causes of this humanitarian tragedy, showing both solidarity towards those fleeing persecution and war, and resolve in allowing entry only to those with genuine claims.

The instability, insecurity, terrorism, poverty, famine and climate change besetting large parts of Africa and the Middle East are the root causes of migration, but EU governments have come around to this too late, engaging essentially in damage-limitation exercises at our borders.

By 2050, the population of Africa is predicted to have doubled to 2.5 billion. Continued inaction will turn the hundreds of thousands we are seeing now into millions seeking a better life in Europe, with devastating consequences, both if Europe cannot cope, and for those seeking to migrate: some 13,000 people have lost their lives in the Mediterranean over the last three years and many more have perished in the Sahara.

A real strategy underpinned by two pillars is urgently needed. First, we must stop traffickers who trade in the lives of human beings by preventing boats from leaving transit countries to begin with. Second, member states must take on their fair share of refugees who do come to Europe through an automatic, mandatory mechanism.

The EU’s agreement with Turkey stopped people-smuggling by funding, among other things, healthcare and education in situ, ultimately leading to the shutting down of the so-called Balkan route for migrants. It should serve as a blueprint to achieve a similar result in the Mediterranean.

The EU’s cooperation arrangements with transit countries such as Niger must also be strengthened and extended to include Mauritania, Mali, Chad, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Libya itself.

The Dublin Regulation, the EU’s asylum system, also needs to be overhauled and replaced by a fair and effective alternative. Of the 650,000 asylum applications submitted in 2017, 416,000 were lodged in only three countries: Germany, Italy and France. This glaring injustice is linked to the outdated way in which the regulation works, and languishing reform is contributing to tension between member states.

The European parliament is playing a proactive role and tabled an asylum system reform proposal several months ago that would make burden-sharing more equitable. I have also written to EU heads of state and government urging them to use it as the basis to move forward.

To convince more reluctant member states to accept the European parliament’s plan, we must assure them that the EU is up to the task of policing its external borders and stopping departures from north Africa. This would allow UNHCR-managed programmes to relocate those who can come to Europe safely and equitably among EU member states.

Failure to deliver a credible European strategy based on these two pillars could culminate in the renationalisation of migration policy, the closure of national borders and the collapse of the Schengen system.

At the same time, the EU must coordinate efforts to stabilise Libya, paving the way for it to become a partner with which we can cooperate.

To this end, I will go to Libya as soon as possible to discuss how we can support this process and parliamentary cooperation, including the role we can play in the organisation of future elections. The European parliament is ready to make its resources and know-how available: a conference bringing together stakeholders in Brussels would be a step in the right direction.

Addressing the root causes of the migrant exodus requires a new partnership with the African continent, supported by an ambitious Marshall plan for Africa in the next EU budget. Our call for at least €40bn could leverage up to €500bn in private-sector investment over the next decade. The migration crisis could spell the end of the European project. We cannot and must not stand by while this happens. We must show the courage, determination and ambition needed to work on new approaches together.

EU heads of state and government must put aside national self-interest and finally deliver the solutions our citizens expect and deserve.

• Antonio Tajani is president of the European parliament