As the federal government marches forward with its plan to provide General Motors and Chrysler some $15 billion in financial aid—Ford insists that it’s OK for now—we have to wonder how that $15 billion will trickle down to our local dealers. Will it save the two companies? Or does it just stem the bleeding?

No one knows, but should U.S. vehicle sales continue on their current pace—which would produce just 11 million vehicle sales in 2009, down from 16-million-plus as recently as 2007—automotive life as we know it must change dramatically. Heck, even if sales do pick up, dramatic change must take place anyway.

General Motors

In its survival plan, General Motors points out that the vast majority of its sales come from Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. Mostly unmentioned are Saab, Hummer, and Saturn, although all three are under official or unofficial “review,” which usually means “up for sale or discontinuation.” Expensive development of new products for the three brands has stopped in the interest of focusing on the four priority brands, so the future for Hummer, Saab, and Saturn doesn’t look very bright.

Pontiac is referred to as a "niche" brand, suggesting that a few unique models, such as the Australian-built G8 or the Solstice roadster, might survive, perhaps the way Lincoln-Mercury tried, and failed, to position the Merkur brand years ago.

Should Buick survive, it will likely be because the brand has traction in China, where far more Buicks are sold than in the U.S. Should Cadillac be broadened in appeal to attract Buick customers, though, it would spell doom for the tri-shield brand. Ditto GMC—its products are shared with Chevrolet, and at some point, the beancounters must ask themselves a question: If there was only Chevrolet, could it be expected to retain a large percentage of those GMC customers? If the answer is yes—and we suspect it would be—GMC could fade away.

The saddest casualty here would be Saturn, which has renovated its product mix completely over the last two to three years in the hopes of prove the old auto axiom: If you have good products, customers will find them. They haven't, and they aren't likely to.

Ford

As for Ford, there's little point in arguing that Mercury has much of a future. Ford maintains that Mercury will survive as a smaller-volume brand, but with little evidence of new products in the pipeline and the recent death of the Sable, call us dubious. Additionally, the Blue Oval has been less successful at remaking the product image of Lincoln than GM has been with Cadillac, but there are some viable Lincoln products on the market now that show moderate promise, like the MKS and refreshed MKZ sedans, and the Ford Flex–based MKT crossover will head to production soon.

Volvo is already on the block, but good luck finding a company like Tata that can take it off Ford's hands, as the Indian conglomerate did with Jaguar and Land Rover. Indeed, even Tata is having a rough year, with plunging sales volumes at Land Rover and Jaguar compounding the challenges of a difficult domestic market in India, all punctuated by the terrorist activity in Mumbai. Still, having already sold its English luxury brands and eyeing a sale of Volvo, Ford is well ahead of GM and Chrysler in the self-streamlining process.

Chrysler

Chrysler is more the wild card here: There are products to cut, as well as strengths to capitalize on. The Chrysler minivan is good enough for Volkswagen to commission its Routan version, and the new Dodge Ram may be the best pickup on the market. Indeed, the Ram will work well rebadged as the next-generation Nissan Titan. The Caliber has shown some sales strength, but aside from that trio, there isn't that much in the Chrysler lineup with legs. The 300 and Charger are getting long in the tooth, the Viper appears to be history, and the Challenger is hardly a volume product.

As for the subpar and underachieving Chrysler Sebring and Dodge Avenger mid-size sedans, they should receive a thorough rework soon—a redo was ordered almost immediately after the cars were released for 2007 and 2008, respectively, as company officials realized how far behind the competition the pair lagged.

Jeep sales are down, but it remains a viable—if overexploited—brand. It went from a brand starved for new vehicles to a brand so littered with overlapping product that trying to find a logical place to put the Commander, Grand Cherokee, Liberty, Patriot, Compass, and Wrangler in the showroom was a challenge. We know the Commander is on its way out, but ditching the Liberty and Compass makes sense, too; pared to the Grand Cherokee, Patriot, and Wrangler, the Jeep brand would be stronger.

We're entering one of the toughest years in the automotive world since World War II. Get ready for a rough ride.

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