With just over 80 days until October’s election, the Liberals are running neck and neck with the Tories in Quebec, a new poll suggests, potentially clouding the prospect of expected Grit seat pickups in the province.

In the Forum phone survey of 977 Quebecers, the Liberals were the preferred choice of 30 per cent of respondents, compared to 28 per cent who opted for the opposition Conservatives, the firm announced on Wednesday.

Forum says the margin of error for the survey, conducted between July 22 and July 24, is plus or minus three percentage points, rendering the Liberal lead statistically insignificant.

While most polls have had the Liberals leading in Quebec, support for the Tories has varied, though the party is generally seen as running second, with its support on the rise.

A poll by Mainstreet Research for iPolitics conducted in late June and through to early July had the Liberals leading in Quebec with 36.7 per cent of support, while the Tories were in the runner-up spot at 22 per cent. Quebec has been seen by many analysts as one of the best pickup opportunities for the Liberals, with the party’s support remaining relatively strong since the emergence of the SNC-Lavalin controversy.

Polls conducted in the province have also suggested sharply declining support for the NDP, with the party being selected as the top choice by only 9 per cent of respondents in the Forum survey. The Greens were a point ahead at 10 per cent, while the Bloc Québécois sat in third place at 15 per cent of support. In distant sixth was the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) with 4 per cent of support.

“The gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is narrowing in Québec and that is bad news for the Liberals,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement.

“The Liberals need a strong showing in Québec and Ontario to win government, and a strong Conservative party, and a resurgent Bloc make that much, much more difficult.”

According to the poll, the Tories led among Quebec residents between the ages of 45 and 54 (32 per cent supported the party) and 55 and 64 (29 per cent), as well as men (33 per cent), supporters of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (50 per cent) and those living in Quebec City (48 per cent), where the party has historically performed well.

The Liberals, meanwhile, are leading among women (33 per cent), English speakers (54 per cent), people making between $150,000 and $250,000 (34 per cent), Montrealers (41 per cent), seniors (35 per cent) and those between the ages of 55 and 64 (36 per cent).

By region, the Liberals are ahead of the Tories in the North Shore suburbs of Montreal by a 32-27 per cent margin, while the Conservatives lead the Grits in the South Shore by a larger 33-21 per cent margin. In the regions of Quebec, those areas outside the Quebec and Montreal metro areas, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by a 31-25 per cent margin, with the Bloc grabbing 18 per cent of support.

The Bloc also registered 21 per cent of support on the North Shore and 16 per cent on the South Shore. Only in Montreal, at 13 per cent, does the NDP register double-digit support. The Greens also enjoy that level of support in the province’s biggest city. At 8 per cent, Quebec City was the PPC’s best regional performance.