For the past few years, ESPN has been trying to make its way in the advanced analytics game. To that end, the network has invested a lot in developing and marketing things like FPI, its Football Power Index. Even more recently, ESPN hired Bill Connelly away from SBNation.

Of course, ESPN still runs into the problem that fans aren’t used to analytics or math in their football analysis. Most fans still struggle with concepts like the fact that if a team has a 70% chance to win each of its first two games, the odds are that that team won’t start 2-0. This post isn’t about math, though. It’s about ESPN’s Playoff Predictor–which is very bad, even when you look at the details behind the math.

On Monday, Saturday Down South posted about ESPN releasing its 2019 Playoff Predictor on the Paul Finebaum Show that day. Of course, that’s not fully accurate; ESPN released its first iteration of the 2019 Playoff Predictor back in April.

If the numbers on Finebaum are right, then ESPN has slightly updated its Playoff Predictor. According to it, Ohio State is the 12th-most likely school to make the CFP, with about a 5% chance. That’s behind Michigan, Penn State, and five SEC schools. That should certainly be potentially worrying for Ohio State fans–if the Playoff Predictor meant anything.

Thankfully, as I have explained in-depth, it doesn’t. The Playoff Predictor is pure nonsense. It’s a meaningless marketing tool that is overly reliant on FPI, among a host of other issues that I detail in the link above. In short, the Playoff Predictor in no way can actually predict the Playoff, but it’s a great way for ESPN to convince fans that it can–and therefore to watch more ESPN.

Of course, we also have to couple that with the fact that FPI really doesn’t like the Buckeyes this year. There actually is an explanation for this. FPI is a math-based predictive formula that uses simulations, with head coach and starting QB having a big impact on the rankings. Since it doesn’t have any real data to judge Ryan Day or Justin Fields, it doesn’t properly give Ohio State any benefit of the doubt.

As the year progresses, assuming Day and Fields perform as expected, we should expect the Buckeyes to improve greatly in FPI. After a few weeks, Ohio State will probably be in the Top 5. If that happens, expect the Playoff Predictor to suddenly love Ohio State. Don’t be fooled by that, though. It will be just as meaningless then as it is now.