Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s trip to China last week, where he attended the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) 2014 and discussed bilateral issues with Li Keqiang – his Chinese counterpart – saw the customary lyrical being waxed by the heads of the two nations. That Pakistan-China friendship is “exemplary”, and that both countries top each other’s priority lists as far as foreign relations are concerned. Global and regional issues were also discussed, but the focus as expected rested on two fronts for Pakistan: investment in energy and infrastructure and the much-touted Economic Corridor.

The corridor would link Gwadar Port to Chinese province Xinjiang via rail, road and oil and gas pipelines.

Gwadar calling

Following up on the Sharif-Keqiang meeting, a technical team from China would be visiting Gwadar in a couple of weeks to monitor the sites and infrastructural arrangements for the Pak-China Economic Corridor. Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) Chairman Dostain Khan Jamaldini has confirmed this, “we will arrange meetings and physical visits of the Chinese technical team at the port and infrastructure sites to examine technical feasibilities of infrastructure”, adding that officials of economic institutions would also visit the sites to figure out the finances and the sums involved.

Gwadar Port is central to the Chinese interests in the region, considering its location at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz as the Economic Corridor’s gateway which opens up access to the Middle East and Africa. Renowned political scientist and military analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi highlighted the importance of Gwadar as the fulcrum of Chinese pivot towards the Middle East. “The Gwadar Port of course is strategically very important for both Pakistan and China. Geopolitically and economically the importance of the port for both nations is immense, which is why both countries are eager to sort out the respective concerns and start working on the infrastructure as soon as possible,” Rizvi said.

Powerplay

Pakistani leaders have regularly tried to woo Chinese investment in the energy sector, considering power shortage is among the topmost concerns for the government. President Mamnoon Hussain signed four Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jingping in February this year, one of them being on hydropower technology. The presidents are believed to have agreed to work on joint projects valued at around $20 billion. Punjab Chief Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also said that China has showed willingness to invest $30 billion in the energy sector a week after President Mamnoon Hussain’s visit to China.

In addition to investment in energy and infrastructure, China is Pakistan’s second largest trade partner, with Pakistan-China Institute’s (PCI) Annual Report 2013 quoting the trade volume to be $12 billion. Former Caretaker Finance Minister Salman Shah stressed Pakistan’s fiscal need to have flourishing ties with China. “China is a huge economy, which will overtake the US as the biggest economy in the world in the next few years. It also has a mammoth market, and surplus funds for investment. Islamabad can revive its stuttering economy through Beijing’s help, leading to the creation of multitudinous job opportunities,” Shah said.

Shah believes that geographical proximity is the most crucial factor in Sino-Pak ties. “The fact that Pakistan and China are neighbours, also makes it more convenient for the two to cooperate on many fronts. Just like Mexico benefits from the US economy, Pakistan can do the same via China. The geographical proximity is one of the reasons behind China’s close ties with Pakistan, despite Islamabad’s historical political orientation towards the West,” he added.

It’s evident that the Economic Corridor can give Pakistan a massive financial boost and help with the power shortages simultaneously.

Bone of Contention

Considering the fact that there are no political or international pressures against the creation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and that it would be beneficial for the region as a whole, there wouldn’t seem much that could go wrong. Even so, there is one issue that has become the bone of contention between Pakistan and China not only in terms of the formulation of the Economic Corridor, but it is believed to be blemishing the ties that both countries collectively extol.

The Uighur militants, responsible for attacks like the one on Kunming rail station last month that left 33 people, are believed to be trained and funded by the Pakistani Taliban. And while Beijing hasn’t accused Islamabad with regards to involvement with the Uighur militants, it has regularly complained.

“Terrorism in Pakistan, and all its links, is obviously the biggest bone of contention for the Economic Corridor and Sino-Pak ties,” Hassan Askari Rizvi said adding that, “even though there have been no accusations, the Chinese government has regularly complained about militancy brimming over from Pakistan. In any case the bigger issue for China is the security of their workers who would be working on the projects in Pakistan. ”

As reiterated by the Chinese premier during his meeting with Sharif, the question mark over the safety of the Chinese workers remains. Chinese engineers have in the past been attacked, while working on projects in Pakistan. Two Chinese engineers working at the Gomal Zam Dam were kidnapped in October 2004 and one of them was killed. In November 2011 there was an attack on Chinese engineers in Dera Bugti, leaving five locals dead and 11 injured.

“Unless the issue of militancy is solved, the dialogue process between Pakistan and China would not move as fast as they would want. Without the Chinese being reassured that their engineers would be safe in Pakistan, there would always be an element of uncertainty regarding the Economic Corridor,” Rizvi said.

Corridor of Uncertainty

Well-known historian and commentator William Dalrymple recently wrote an article for The Guardian titled, “Afghanistan: as China forges new alliances, a new Great Game has begun”. Darlymple stated that, “the China-Pakistan alliance, for 50 years the crucial relationship between south and east Asia, is now looking increasingly past its sell-by date,” owing to the Uighur militants and their training in Pakistan.

Dalrymple believes that while the leadership has made sure that the issue stays out of the media, according to his sources Beijing is now a lot more vocal about their concerns regarding the terrorist attacks’ link with Pakistani militant outfits. “It’s not been mentioned in the media, but intelligence sources have told me that Beijing is now more apprehensive and more vocal about the issue of Uighur militants and has taken it up with Islamabad as well,” Dalrymple said.

Salman Shah also echoed the concerns about Islamabad not doing enough to curb terrorism in the country. “We will pay a huge price for dillydallying on taking action against the terrorists. The biggest problem for China is terrorism and the way we are dealing with it, we might alienate Beijing and in turn suffer economically ourselves,” he said.

[quote]China is now seeing Afghanistan as a security problem more than an economic opportunity[/quote]

Geostrategic Reshuffle

In his Guardian article, Dalrymple has discussed how the US and Chinese interests seem to be converging in Afghanistan, and that post US troops withdrawal, there could be a geostrategic reshuffle. “Militancy in Pakistan has changed the Chinese approach to Afghanistan that is now being perceived as a security problem more than an economic opportunity. And this is where the US and Chinese interests overlap in Afghanistan. I have spoken to (Hamid) Karzai and he believes that Afghanistan could have a government that ensures peace in the country. That of course would be equally beneficial for China and the US,” Dalrymple said.

“The US and China have the same security concerns in Afghanistan, which really are the apprehensions of the region as a whole as well,” Hassan Askari Rizvi said. “Of course China’s current stance with regards to India need to be factored in as well,” he added.

Dalrymple also believes that growing India-China ties are a major factor as far as the geostrategic reshuffle in the region is concerned. “China is now India’s biggest trading partner. It has pulled troops from the disputed border areas and is discussing Afghanistan’s security issues with India,” he said.

With China and India getting closer, the regional interests seem to be overlapping with individual interests of the powers. Once militancy is purged off the Pak-China Economic Corridor, it can become a regional “corridor” wherein all countries in the region benefit financially from inter and intra regional trade, which of course can only be achieved through ensuring peace in the region.

“China would want the Economic Corridor to link with a corridor to India as well. And if India, Pakistan and China all are simultaneously involved in trade and an economic symbiosis, we could see a return to the early days of silk trade!” Dalrymple said.

The interests of India, Pakistan and China all converging might be bit of a pipedream in the near future, but it is evident that for Islamabad to reap the benefits of Chinese ties, it would have to be more efficient in eradicating terrorism from what, as things stand, is a corridor of uncertainty.