A recession will come in nine months’ time if President Donald Trump goes one step further in his plan to impose tariffs on Chinese-made consumer products, a leading brokerage argues.

In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley makes the case that a recession will hit if Trump imposes 25% tariffs on some $300 billion of Chinese goods not currently subjected to tariffs. Trump has said he’ll impose a 10% tariff on those goods in September.

That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.

Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.

Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%.

The real concern, however, is corporate confidence. “While we don’t know the exact tipping point, we are cognizant of the risk of a potential non-linear tightening in financial conditions and its impact on capex and the labor market,” the Morgan Stanley analysts say.

The risks, they argue, are skewed to downside. The global economy would enter recession in three quarters if Trump took the tariffs up to 25% and China were to respond.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also flagged the risk of tariffs going up to 25%.

“We see substantial risk that the 10% tariff could get increased to 25%. At that point we would have 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports. We also think there is a high risk of tariffs on imports of autos and parts from outside North America (with South Korea also likely getting an exemption), particularly as such tariffs would incentivize producers to meet the USMCA’s stricter local-content rules,” said economists at BAML, referring to the updated trade pact between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

U.S. stocks DJIA, +1.33% and other major indexes opened sharply lower on Monday, as the Chinese central bank didn’t get in the way of the dollar USDCNY, rallying past the key 7 level vs. the yuan.

Investors flocked to the safety of U.S. government bonds TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.657% and gold GC00, -0.10% .

Read:Dow futures down more than 300 points as U.S.-China trade fight deepens