Bernie Sanders rails against big money in politics and insists that he doesn’t want an allied super PAC — but the majority of Democrats in early states say he can’t rely on smaller-dollar donors alone if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton.

That’s the assessment of this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in the early states. This week, the Caucus has expanded to include South Carolina and Nevada in addition to our insiders already participating in Iowa and New Hampshire.


The consensus on Sanders’ need for big money was strong: 83 percent of South Carolina Democrats, 62 percent of Nevada Democrats and 54 percent of New Hampshire Democrats said he cannot beat Clinton with only small-dollar donors. Of Iowa Democrats, 40 percent said the same.

Insiders from those states said that at best he could win a contest or two, but the big donations and unlimited contributions that a super PAC brings would be essential if his campaign stretches into the later stages of the primary season.

"Small donors are an important component but if the campaign drifts into the larger more expensive states he will need more dollars than he will receive from just small donors," said one South Carolina Democrat, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely.

Agreed an Iowa Democrat, "During the caucus, absolutely. But it's difficult to go deep into the primary without the resources to back a full campaign in several states."

Sanders, a frequent critic of Wall Street and the Citizens United decision that ushered in the super PAC era, has repeatedly pledged not to accept super PAC support. In the second quarter of the year, he pulled in more money from the smallest of the small-dollar donors – those giving $200 or less – than any other candidate in the 2016 field. And his strength among small donors appears to have carried over into the third quarter too.

While his full financial filing for the last period hasn’t been released yet, his campaign said Wednesday that he raised more than $25 million, nearing Clinton’s $28 million haul.

In 2008, Barack Obama also relied heavily on small-dollar donors, Caucus insiders noted. But some cautioned that that was before super PACs assumed the outsized role they now play in presidential contests, ratcheting up the costs of campaigns dramatically.

"Small donors might make some larger donors start to pay attention but you can't win by relying exclusively on small donors," a South Carolina Democrat said.

"Barack Obama raised millions from small donors, but his candidacy was unprecedented in doing this," noted another. "Bernie Sanders does not have the same status as a candidate that Barack Obama did."

Respondents from Iowa and New Hampshire, who have seen more of Sanders, and where his poll numbers have steadily increased, were more likely to say Sanders could beat Clinton relying solely on smaller-dollar contributors than were Democrats from South Carolina and Nevada. But only among Iowa Democrats did a majority -- 60 percent-- say Sanders could beat Clinton without bigger donors, while New Hampshire Democrats were closer to evenly divided, with slightly more saying that he couldn't do so.

That geographical divide played out on the Republican side as well: Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans said Sanders could beat Clinton without bigger donors (88 percent of New Hampshire Republicans said he could do so), while majorities of Republicans in Nevada and South Carolina said he couldn't. The caveat across the board, however, was that small-dollar donors could propel him through the first few contests but he needs more heft to get across the finish line.

"Certainly in NH, he can but for him to win the whole thing, he needs an ongoing and intensifying firestorm," a New Hampshire Republican said. "[Were] that to really occur, all the parties in the Hamptons and the Hollywood Hills would not rescue her."

Added an Iowa Republican, "Maybe in Iowa... but not in the long run. Ask Ron Paul how it worked for him."

Another Iowa Republican was more skeptical: "Even a socialist has to understand math. It doesn't add up. She'll crush him."

(Some insiders responded before Sanders’ announced his third-quarter haul.)

Ben Carson is building an Iowa powerhouse

More than one-third of Iowa Republicans say Ben Carson is building the strongest ground-game operation in the first-in-the nation caucus state -- and no one else came close.

"Carson has a natural grassroots network of homeschoolers," said one Iowa Republican. "He can turn out a large crowd anywhere in the state, which should translate to a strong Caucus showing. He energizes the Caucus electorate, while Trump attracts people based on a celebrity status."

In establishment Republican circles, many hold the belief that Carson, who has never held political office, is a flavor-of-the-month candidate who lacks policy depth and isn't to be taken seriously. But Caucus insiders, none of whom work for Carson, made the case that he is out-organizing everyone else in Iowa, thanks in large part to the super PAC supporting him, which has been laying the groundwork for a Carson run for more than a year.

"The Carson Super PAC team has the state blanketed," an Iowa Republican said. "You can't go to a county GOP or local community event without seeing someone in a Ben Carson shirt handing out literature and signing people up."

In other states, there were less definitive winners on the Republican side: Marco Rubio and home-state senator Lindsey Graham tied with 28 percent each in South Carolina for best ground game; Jeb Bush led in Nevada, followed closely by Rubio; and New Hampshire was jumbled, with Carly Fiorina and John Kasich barely out-polling Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.

On the Democratic side, Clinton had the best ground game across the board, insiders said.

These are the members of the POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated this week:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson



Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

This article tagged under: The POLITICO Caucus