The World Cup is incredible. Whether your country is playing or not, everyone glues their eyes to the TV to watch the biggest event of the sporting world. However, as many will be making their bets soon, let’s analyse the trends of World Cup winning teams and whose going to win.

Squad age

In general, an outfield is at his peak physically when he’s in his late 20’s and early 30’s. From what we can see from the graph below, Germany seem perfectly equipped to retain the World Cup, however, the likes of Belgium, Brazil, France, and Spain will certainly give them a run for their money. While it’s likely that Portugal’s defense will be comprised of aging players, they should consider dropping Bruno Alves in favour of Ruben Dias in order to increase their chances of winning. While this graph doesn’t necessarily account of the quality that each team has, playing a young defender that can keep up with fast attackers is a better option than playing an aging defender. While it may have worked with Italy in the past, Portugal don’t play a certain style of football that emphasis defensive protection.

On the other hand, a team like France could certainly do with some experience. With a team comprised of so many young players entering their first World Cup, France can always use someone like Laurent Koscielny at the back (unfortunately he’s injured), or someone like Karim Benzema in attack. However, given how they performed at Euro 2016, experience doesn’t seem to be too big of an issue as they’ve proven their worth on the big stage.

Goalkeeper

Considering that goalkeepers have longer careers than outfield players, this could explain why the average age of World Cup winning keepers are higher than the average squad age. From what can be seen, the likes of Spain, France, and Germany, have keepers just around the right age. Not only that, but these same national teams have the best keepers in the world, such as David De Gea, Hugo Lloris, Manuel Neuer, and Marc-André ter Stegen.

Even though goalkeepers have longer careers, a team like the Portuguese national team should consider dropping Rui Patricio for OL keeper Anthony Lopes, especially when it comes to the bigger matches. While Patricio may have the experience, Lopes will have sharper reflexes and is more likely to stop certain shots. However, age for keepers isn’t everything. For a team like Brazil, 2 out of their 3 keepers are yet to reach their peak, and the other keeper is 30 with only 1 cap for the Brazil national team. So, while the stats suggest that Brazil should play Cassio (the 30 year old keeper), he doesn’t have enough caps to justify his reason of being first choice in Russia.

Defenders

From what can be seen, the likes of England, Croatia, Morocco, and Sweden have defenders just around the right age. However, what must be considered is that the data does not account for player quality or experience.

Despite their humiliating 7–1 loss to Germany following by a 3–0 loss to Netherlands in their own backyard, Brazil have still decided to put trust in centre backs such as Thiago Silva and Miranda to lead the backline. The same can be said about Spain too. Even though they crashed out of the group stage in the last World Cup, Sergio Ramos and Gerard Piqué are still deemed fit by the selectors and manager to lead the backline. By playing a backline that’s way older than the average age, both Brazil and Spain put themselves at further risk and can be extremely vulnerable to fast counter-attacks from the opposition.

Midfielders

From what can be seen, the likes of France, Uruguay, Panama, and Nigeria have midfielders just around the right age. However, what must be considered is that the data does not account for player quality or experience. Despite their recent failures, England have decided to ditch experience and have resorted to dropping the likes of Jack Wilshere and Adam Lallana, while the likes of Dele Alli and Eric Dier will most likely play in England’s midfield.

On the other hand, similar to their defense, Portugal have resorted to an aging midfield, that are comprised of players that played in Euro 2016 and even the last World Cup. Despite their success at Euro 2016, Portugal certainly need some young players in that midfield if past data is anything to go by.

Forwards

Considering that foward have shorter careers than any other players from different positions, this could explain why the average age of World Cup winning forwards are lower than the average squad age. From what can be seen, the likes of Brazil, South Korea, Denmark, and England, have forward just around the right age. Not only that, but these same national teams have the best fowards in the world, such as Neymar, Gabriel Jesus, Harry Kane, Philippe Coutinho, Harry Kane, and more.

4 years later, France seem have a far different attack comprised of young players who have come through the ranks. The likes of Thomas Lemar and Kylian Mbappé will be playing their first World Cup, however, based on the data, it seems that France need some experienced players that are in their peak, if they’re looking to win this World Cup. On the other hand, even though Spain won Euro 2012 playing without a striker and playing a game heavily dependent on their midfield, they certainly can do with a younger striker. In the past few years, Spain have struggled to find the right striker to fill in the void left by David Villa, that can play to the style of the national team. However, the problem for Spain isn’t goalscoring, but rather a young, world-class striker that will put away their chances.

Coach

If you were to map out a graph that looked at the correlation between age and trophies, it’ll most likely look like a negative parabola. A coach’s success can be compared to a player’s success, as a coach’s success very much depends on the players around him and his tactics. While there have been anomalies like Vicente del Bosque, most managers that win the World Cup are in their late 40’s. However, what must be considered is that this data does not account for manager’s experience or success.

The likes of England and South Korea have seemed to pick their coaches properly, however, the likes of Spain and France also have a case to make. All in all, from what can be seen with World Cup winning managers, most of them tend to be in their late 40’s or early 50's.

What the punters are saying

Based on a survey of regular Reuters poll participants from across the globe from May 16–31, Germany’s national soccer team got the highest number of nods — 43 out of 145 analysts — to lift the trophy in July. Brazil placed second with 37 votes, evoking prospects of a final between the two long-term rivals.

“Germany have a good combination of skill and discipline and are not overly dominated by any one star player, but rather a high level of players throughout,” said Frank Blackmore, chief economist at EFConsult in Johannesburg.

“Hence, my choice of Germany as 2018 winners.”

“But I think they are thinking with their hearts (those who think Brazil will win the World Cup). Brazil depend too much on a small number of players, particularly (star forward) Neymar. It’s a good team but I don’t think they’ll get past the semifinals.”

Most analysts and bookies have agreed that Germany will win this World Cup. Rather seeing it from a psychological point of view, they realise that Germany have no singular star player, so the team isn’t too reliant on one specific player. Furthermore, with the way that the Germans play, they play in a certain way that prevent them from being broken down, whereas the Brazilians play a far more attacking brand of football that places more emphasis on risk-taking.

What the big banks are saying

DealBook has reviewed the analysis — which includes artificial intelligence, statistical modeling, portfolio theory, and economic analysis — from four different banks.

UBS’s prediction: Germany

Its approach: A group from the Swiss bank’s chief investment office scored each team based on an objective skill-level measurement called Elo rating, its route through qualification and any home nation advantage. The analysts then carried out statistical modeling known as Monte Carlo simulation, which it explains like this:

We draw a large number of random variables and use these to bring in a random component to our calculations and to simulate the championship. A better team is still more likely to win than its lower-ranked opponent, but this is sport, and upsets DO happen. After we’ve repeated this again and again, we end up with the results of 10,000 virtual tournaments. We then simply count how many times each team won.

The result: Germany, Brazil and Spain are most likely to win — with Germany the UBS favorite, with a 24 percent chance of victory.

Goldman’s prediction: Brazil

Its approach: Goldman Sachs’s global macro research team opted to use artificial intelligence algorithms to conduct its analysis. Here’s its approach:

We feed data on team characteristics, individual players and recent team performance into four different types of machine learning models to analyze the number of goals scored in each match. The models then learn the relationship between these characteristics and goals scored, using the scores of competitive World Cup and European Cup matches since 2005. By cycling through alternative combinations of variables, we get a sense of which characteristics matter for success and which stay on the bench. We then use the model to predict the number of goals scored in each possible encounter of the tournament and use the unrounded score to determine the winner.

The result: An unnervingly algorithmic score in the final of 1.70 goals for Brazil to just 1.41 for Germany. However, Goldman has predicted a Brazilian victory for the last three World Cups, and has been wrong every time.

ING’s prediction: Spain

Its approach: The Dutch bank used one of the more unusual techniques described here, opting to calculate the chances of success using a measure based on market value of the nation’s team and its previous performance. (The assumption here being that value and success are closely correlated.) A team’s worth was calculated from individual player transfer value estimates and their track record from FIFA world rankings.

The results: Spain will be crowned world champion, with a total team value of €1.04 billion ($1.16 billion). A close second: France, which is valued at €1.03 billion.

Nomura’s prediction: France vs. Spain in the final

Its approach: The Japanese bank opted to treat the tournament with the same techniques it would use to offer balanced risk to investors:

Being analysts, we have to apply some rigor to our World Cup predictions, so we’ve decided to apply portfolio theory and the efficient markets hypothesis to the World Cup. We look at the value of players in each team, the momentum of team performance and historical performance to arrive at three portfolios of teams to watch.

The results: Its analysis suggests that France, Spain and Brazil are the most likely to reach the semifinals, and it predicts that France and Spain will meet in the final.

Based on what the big banks are predicting, the general consensus is that Brazil, Germany, and Spain will all go very far and are the 3 countries most likely to win the World Cup.

Who’s winning it?

The bookies on whose going to win the World Cup

Despite the many flaws in the data, the teams that seem most likely to win the World Cup are Spain and Germany. Brazil and France are also honourable mentions, however, when you consider the average age of keepers, defenders, midfielders, strikers, and manager, the data favours the Spanish and German. However, based on the bracket and if results go the way that they’re predicted, Spain will face Germany in the semi-finals, while France and Brazil will face each other in the other semi-final. Based on the odds by the bookies, it seems that Brazil vs. Germany/Spain will be the World Cup final. France’s World Cup preparation doesn’t really solidify their case of becoming World Cup champions, as they’ve failed to beat the likes of the United States and Colombia over the past few months. But considering that it’s been a very long time since a South American team has won on European soil, Die Manschaft will most likely win the World Cup.