The state of New York now leads the nation in people who are confirmed to have COVID-19. “I don’t believe we’re going to be able to flatten the curve enough to meet the capacity of the health care system,” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo warned in a news conference on Monday. While the state contemplates more extreme measures to combat the rising flood that is beginning to overwhelm the state's hospitals, other states with fewer confirmed cases may be just days or weeks behind New York.

The exponential nature of the growth of viruses like coronavirus means that the trajectory, or curve, of the number of people who have COVID-19 is even more important than the total number when trying to understand the potential risks of the outbreak. States that have few reports of people with the virus but are following the curve of places like New York and Washington could soon find themselves in a similarly dire situation without strong preventative measures.

An analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, compiled by Johns Hopkins University, shows that many states, such as New Jersey, Michigan, and Louisiana, are on a similar trajectory to New York already, with others following closely behind. These numbers are based on the latest number of confirmed people with COVID-19, which is likely far lower than the actual number of cases due to limited testing across the U.S.

Growth in number of people confirmed to have novel coronavirus by state

Experts warn that while testing capacity has been inadequate everywhere, the number of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in states outside of New York and Washington may be lower in part due to even less testing early on in the outbreak. "Every single place that testing capacity ramps up, we're going to expect these numbers to go up substantially. Whether it's quite as steep as New York we won't know, but we expect that those numbers are going to go up substantially," said Dr. Katharine Bar, a professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania.

Taking precautions like closing schools, isolating all cases of illness, and not gathering in groups could help slow the rise in other states, before they reach the levels seen in New York. "I don't think it'll necessarily mean there won't be an exponential rise, but it'll be a slower exponential rise, and the peak won't be as high" said Dr. Ira Longini, a professor & Co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the Emerging Pathogens Institute of the University of Florida. “Doing all these things saves lives, and it's helpful. I don't think we can stop the exponential rise though, just slow it down some.”

Will the U.S. end up like Italy? America's 'curve' may be at its most dangerous point

Italy has seen the number of patients sick with COVID-19 rise to levels beyond the capacity of the healthcare system and doctors have had to make difficult decisions about who gets priority in care and access to intensive care beds. The U.S. as a whole is on a similar trajectory to Italy and other nations that have seen the largest outbreaks.

How the US coronavirus case trajectory compares to other nations

As the virus continues to spread across the U.S. and more patients receive tests, the number of people confirmed to have the virus each day across the country continues to grow.

People reported to have contracted novel coronavirus in the US, by day

Keep track of the latest number of cases by state on this page as we update the charts with new data daily.

Total number of novel coronavirus cases in the US by state

What can you do to slow the advance of the virus? Social distancing. Here's how it works:

Why social distancing is critical to curbing the coronavirus pandemic Social distancing matters. Here is how to do it and how it can help curb the COVID-19 pandemic. Just the FAQs, USA TODAY

George Petras contributed to this report.

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