Monday’s best bets, by Chris Cook

Sunday will bring us the best of all European Flat races, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, so it’s time to get excited, unless you’re the type of punter who insists on maintaining a Gallic sangfroid, and also to start looking at the weather forecast for Paris. The website I use predicts about 1mm of rain over the next six days and that makes me feel I can start my Arc calculations by putting a line through the name of Cracksman.

Connections have come to the view that Cracksman needs a bit of dig in the ground in order to show his best form but there doesn’t seem to have been much since the trials were run on good ground at Longchamp a fortnight ago.

It’s a cool start to the week in Paris, apparently, with a splash of rain possible tomorrow. After that, it’s dry with rising temperatures through to Friday and I imagine we may then get a formal announcement that Cracksman will be saved for the Champion Stakes at Ascot on 20 October. He’s currently on offer at between 7-1 and 12-1 with bookmakers.

And so to today’s racing. Let’s Sway (2.20) is the nap in the opener, a novice hurdle for mares in which she is a 13-8 shot. She showed gradual improvement over hurdles for Tracey Barfoot-Saunt and, at Wincanton in May, provided that trainer with her first winner in more than a decade.

Olly Murphy doesn’t improve every horse that comes to him but I think he has a reasonable chance with this one, who has had a wind op since her last run. Murphy appears to have claimed her out of a seller in which he had the winner.

Without wanting to undermine any impression you may have about the quality of competition at the Abbot today, my other tip there was also in a seller when last seen. Atlantic Grey (4.30) responded well to blinkers, wind surgery and/or the drop in class when scoring by four lengths at this course last month, which turned out to be his only start for Nigel Hawke.

Jimmy Frost has him now and seeks to exploit what may be a fair handicap mark. He might provide Bryony Frost with an exciting comeback ride at 16-1.

At Catterick, I’ll take a chance at 16-1 on Royal Variety (2.30), who was probably on the wrong part of the track when well beaten at Epsom on her handicap debut. If a faster surface is what she needs, she’ll get it today and she comes from the James Tate yard that has been among the winners.

Can Europe win another Classic on dirt? by Greg Wood

It is a quarter of a century since Arcangues recorded a famous victory in the 10th Breeders’ Cup Classic, a result American fans tend to remember as one of the biggest upsets of all time, and Europeans might argue was one of the most brilliant pieces of placement the Turf – or in this case, the dirt – has seen.

Arcangues had never raced on dirt, or outside Europe, when he went into the gate at Santa Anita in 1993. No less a trainer than Andre Fabre, however, had decided that the Classic was the race for him, and there are still punters even now who are kicking themselves they did not take the hint.

The race is well worth another watch, not least for the call by the legendary Tom Durkin, and the way that the crowd falls completely silent as Arcangues hits the front. It’s as though someone just switched them off.

Arcangues’ PMU return was, in fact, $269.20 to a $2 stake, or just over 133-1, and as the Breeders’ Cup approaches its 35th running at Churchill Downs next month, he remains the biggest-priced winner in the meeting’s history. He is also the only European-trained horse to win the Classic on dirt.

In terms of numbers at least, this year’s European challenge promises to be the biggest since the days of Santa Anita’s synthetic experiment, as it could well amount to four runners. Mendelssohn, the 18-length winner of the UAE Derby in March, is still without a victory since but ran with great credit under Ryan Moore to finish third in a pulsating renewal of the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on Saturday. Diversify, the favourite, set off at a crazy pace, going through the first quarter in 22.72sec, and the half-mile in 45.64sec, with Mendelssohn in close attendance throughout.

It was no surprise when Diversify’s early efforts started to tell in the stretch and he faded tamely as Mendelssohn drove for home and then Thunder Snow, from Saeed bin Suroor’s yard in Newmarket, hit the front. The early pace had been so intense, however, that the deep closer Discreet Lover, a big outsider, was able to swoop past them all in the final stride.

Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn both did more than enough to justify a place in the Classic, however, and a chance to improve on their 20-of-20 finishes in the last two Kentucky Derby runnings. It is possible they will be joined by Roaring Lion while none other than Toast Of New York, four years on from his near-miss in California, may also be on course to return to the Classic after running second in a nine-furlong Grade Three at Churchill two days ago.

“I haven’t had a chance to discuss it with Al Shaqab [the gelding’s owners] yet,” Jamie Osborne, Toast Of New York’s trainer, said on Monday shortly after getting off a return flight from Kentucky. “But that’s certainly one of the options. He needs to come on a bit [to run in the Classic] but I think it’s kind of inevitable that he probably will, he’s bound to have been a bit rusty [after eight months off].”

Roaring Lion’s Classic odds range from 8-1 to 16-1, while Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow are both on offer at around 14-1. Toast Of New York is a huge outsider – but then, so was Arcangues.

Quick Guide Racing tips for Monday 1 October Show Catterick 2.00 Red Saree 2.30 Royal Variety (nb) 3.05 Smart Champion 3.35 Dr Doro 4.10 Debatable 4.40 Highway Robber 5.10 Colour Contrast Bath 2.10 Michaels Choice 2.45 Andalusite 3.15 Gentle Look 3.50 Lopito 4.20 Archimedes 4.55 Artic Nel 5.30 Ferrier 6.00 Pike Corner Cross Newton Abbot 2.20 Let’s Sway (nap) 2.55 Risk And Roll 3.25 Motueka 4.00 I’dliketheoption 4.30 Atlantic Grey 5.05 Mash Potato Kempton 5.45 Gulland Rock 6.15 Lufricia 6.45 Red October 7.15 Knowing 7.45 Qaroun 8.15 Parting Clouds 8.45 Contingency Fee 9.15 Looking For Carl

Tips by Chris Cook