The White House’s chaotic policymaking process can best be viewed as a series of collisions between Donald Trump’s I-alone-can-fix-it campaign boasts and reality. So far, damage from these crashes with the real world has been contained to domestic issues. But with Venezuela collapsing, North Korea launching new missiles, an escalating trade war with China, and possible real war with Iran, chances are increasing that Trump could stoke an international crisis that will spiral out of his control.

The most rapidly intensifying situation is with Iran. “They’re suffocating Iran, so anything is possible,” an outside White House adviser told me. When Trump acted on his campaign pledge to pull out of the Obama nuclear deal, he did it without a clear endgame in mind. That policy void has led to an intense internal debate inside the White House over how to handle Iran. On one side is hawkish National Security Adviser John Bolton, who, prior to joining the White House, advocated for regime change in Tehran. He is joined by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, another famous Iran hawk. But they are reportedly ahead of the president’s thinking. “He thinks Bolton is pushing him into a disaster,” a former administration official said. Others are also voicing caution. According to the official, Jared Kushner has lobbied Trump to sit down with the Iranians and attempt to cut a new deal.

On China, Trump is way ahead of his advisers and fellow Republicans on what Steve Bannon told me is a “major escalation” against Beijing. On Wednesday, Trump effectively blacklisted Chinese telecom giant Huawei from selling parts to U.S. suppliers, citing fears it could open a backdoor for Chinese spying. On Friday, Trump intends to decide whether to apply a new round of global tariffs on billions of dollars of automobile imports. But the messaging coming out of the White House has been all over the place. Trump’s claims that tariffs are fueling record economic growth in the United States were contradicted by his chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, who told Fox News that “both sides will pay.” Trump reportedly “had it out” with Kudlow following the interview, The Washington Post reported.

According to sources, Kudlow, a famous supply-side free-trader, is burned out by the job. (In June 2018 he suffered a heart attack). Kudlow’s relationship with Trump has never been particularly close. “Any time the markets go down, Trump bothers Larry,” a person close to Kudlow told me. While Kudlow is telling friends he’s “having the time of his life,” he’s also eyeing an exit. According to sources, Kudlow wanted to leave the White House this summer, but Kudlow agreed to stay after Trump said he didn’t want Kudlow leaving until the China trade war was resolved. “I need you here for the markets. We need a united front,” Trump said, according to a source. (A White House official said Kudlow has no intention of leaving.)

As the trade war drags on, daylight is appearing between the president and his G.O.P. stalwarts. “Trump is getting a lot of shit from Republican senators,” a Republican close to the White House said. Speaking with reporters this week, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley said “both countries are going to be hurt” if a deal isn’t reached soon. “People are getting nervous about the farmers,” a former West Wing official said. “Farmers are planting right now and farmers need to make sure customers are there when this is all over.”

More Great Stories from Vanity Fair

— Visit our brand-new, searchable digital archive now!

— How Beto O’Rourke lost his narrative

— Wall Street’s dangerous new addiction

— Can Kamala Harris catch fire?

— Is Uber’s the biggest I.P.O. flop in history?

— From the archives: Sixteen words that changed the world

Looking for more? Sign up for our daily Hive newsletter and never miss a story.