“Here’s the smell of blood still. Not all the sweet perfumes of Arabia will sweeten this hand,” bewails Lady Macbeth as she confronts her guilt. And so with the leaders of the Saudi court as they seek to wash their hands of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi by pinning the blame for his murder on a gang of aberrant senior intelligence officers.

Donald Trump has vacillated in his response to Riyadh’s explanations, describing them as lies at one moment, credible the next. But he has been consistent in insisting a ban on arms sales is not on the table.

It will now be tempting for Saudi Arabia’s allies – above all the US – to sweep Khashoggi’s body under the carpet, recognising that Saudi Arabia is an indispensable partner in the struggle against Iran, Washington’s primary chosen adversary in the Middle East.

Nothing moves on quite like politics, and it is possible the US president, a master of distraction, will succeed in changing the political agenda before the midterms, leaving the Saudi relationship and the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman intact. Washington will continue to deal with the Saudi regime, but from a greater distance. The glowing orb that Trump touched in Riyadh will be put away for another day.

Timeline Jamal Khashoggi's death: a Saudi version of events Show Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman tells Bloomberg he understands Khashoggi left the consulate after “a few minutes or one hour”. Turkish authorities are welcome to search the diplomatic mission because “we have nothing to hide”, he says. The Saudi consulate in Istanbul tweets that is following up on reports of Khashoggi’s disappearance “after he left the building”. Saudi ambassador Walid bin Abdul Karim El Khereiji denies any knowledge of Khashoggi’s whereabouts, Turkish media says. Riyadh sends investigators to cooperate with Turkey. Consul general Mohammed al-Otaibi tells Reuters all talk of kidnapping is baseless. Otaibi gives Reuters a tour of the consulate. Around midnight, Turkish officials say Khashoggi was killed there. A Saudi statement describes the Turkish allegations as baseless. US ambassador Prince Khaled bin Salman tells Axios the kingdom had nothing to do with the case. Prince Khalid describes allegations against the kingdom as “malicious leaks and grim rumours”. Turkey and Saudi Arabia form a joint working group. Saudi Arabia’s interior minister describes claims in the media that there were “orders to kill [Khashoggi]” as “lies and baseless allegations”. Later, Turkish officials leak details and say he was dismembered with a bone saw. Donald Trump tweets that he had spoken with King Salman, who “denies any knowledge of whatever may have happened”. Saudi-owned al Arabiya TV says 15 men identified by Turkish media on 10 October as part of a hit squad were misidentified “tourists”. Turkish investigators are allowed to search the consulate building. Trump speaks with Mohammed bin Salman, then tweets that the crown prince “totally denied” any knowledge of what happened and Riyadh was launching a thorough investigation. The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, says Saudi Arabia has made a “serious commitment” to hold anyone responsible accountable. Saudi Arabia’s public prosecutor says investigations show a fistfight led to Khashoggi’s death. Eighteen people have been arrested and two officials close to bin Salman fired. A Saudi official tells Reuters 15 officials travelled to Istanbul to meet Khashoggi, who had expressed interest in returning home. They threatened to kidnap him; Khashoggi resisted, and was accidentally choked to death during attempts to stop him shouting. An official dressed in Khashoggi’s clothes to make it appear as if he had left the consulate. The body was given to a “local collaborator” who disposed of it. The team then lied to Riyadh to cover up the fact Khashoggi had died.

That assumes other key actors are willing to play along with what the former head of MI6 Sir John Sawers has in effect described as a fictional explanation by the Saudis of what happened to Khashoggi. Few states believe the Saudi line that he died when an attempt to persuade him to return home went wrong. The issue is whether they pretend to do so.

The key response lies with Turkey. The country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, spoke to Bin Salman on Friday night to hear the results of the Saudi investigation and the planned response. Turkey’s own investigations are coming to a close and Erdoğan promised on Sunday to unveil the “naked truth” on Tuesday.

Turkey may yet find Khashoggi’s dismembered body, and it may yet be able to prove – possibly via audio – that his death was no accident but a premeditated assassination, so discrediting even the revised explanations from Riyadh. It may reveal damaging details about the Saudi cover-up.

It will be hard, however, to prove Bin Salman directly ordered Khashoggi’s killing. All the relevant agents have been arrested in Saudi Arabia and are hardly likely to be given their day in open court to explain that they were carrying out specific orders from the top.

If Bin Salman is to be ousted or weakened, it will require demands from within the royal family, the Saudi business community and possibly the religious establishment. The crown prince’s appointment to oversee the reform and modernisation of Saudi’s intelligence department, announced on Friday night does not, however, suggest he has yet been weakened internally.

That does not mean the episode is bereft of diplomatic consequence. Judging by the joint and individual statements emerging over the weekend from European ministers, the Saudi story is not being bought, and some form of punishment will be administered. Key players in the US Congress, such as the Republican senator Lindsay Graham, will address this when Congress returns. Saudi stock could not be lower.

There will be pressure on Trump to impose sanctions and to temper US support for Saudi conduct with the war in Yemen. Trump may also find himself vulnerable if it is shown that US intelligence knew there was a threat to Khashoggi’s life and this was not relayed to him or his now grieving family.

In the UK, there will have to be a recalibration of its friends in the Middle East. The wooing of and near-fawning over the crown prince by the Conservative government in March looks mistaken. A long interview that the then foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, afforded al-Arabiya before Bin Salman’s visit revealed a craven country obsessed only by the financial rewards of Saudi diversification, and too eager to buy the Saudi modernisation story. The standing of Qatar in London will be on the rise.

The UK is not, however, in a position to determine the pecking order in the court of Saudi Arabia, and in the past fortnight it has repeatedly stressed that the kingdom is a strategic partner. In the world of realpolitik, strategic partners look past one another’s mistakes. The crown prince may find he is not invited round for tea with the Queen again, but the multimillion-pound contracts available to UK businesses from the Saudi diversification programme will shape the British government reaction.

The UK has made much of the fact that the trade secretary, Liam Fox, will not attend next week’s business summit in Riyadh. It made less of the continued attendance of the UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia or the trade commissioner for the Middle East. In the age-old tussle between money and morality, the UK outside the EU and in search of markets has fewer options.