Bernie Sanders' Western push was supposed to start with a win next week in Arizona, a state where he's devoted serious advertising resources and drawn big crowds to his events.

But the shellacking he suffered Tuesday has cast a long shadow over his Arizona prospects, leading many Arizona Democrats to question whether the Vermont senator can get out from under it in time for his March 22 contest with Hillary Clinton.


"I think he needed a lot of momentum heading into the last week of voting here,” said D.J. Quinlan, an unaligned Arizona Democratic strategist and former executive director of the state Democratic Party. “Hillary's sweep definitely took away any momentum they had."

Sanders already had a formidable task ahead of him in Arizona, where Clinton won 13 of the state’s 15 counties in her victory over Barack Obama in 2008 and the state’s sizable Hispanic population worked to her advantage. Then came losses in all five states that voted this week, and his wife Jane Sanders’ ill-fated visit the day before to conservative Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s "Tent City" outdoor jail, an event that went awry when the lightning-rod sheriff unexpectedly joined the senator’s wife on the tour.

In a state where Hispanics make up roughly 30 percent of the population, the Clinton campaign quickly seized on the appearance with Arpaio, one of the nation’s best-known immigration hardliners.

"When Jane Sanders visited Joe Arpaio's inhumane detention center, the Sanders campaign had a chance to tell Arpaio to his face that he was wrong and that he needed to resign -- as many of us have said for years," said Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez, a leading immigration rights advocate, in a statement released Tuesday by the Clinton campaign. "Instead, they heard him out, thanked him for his hospitality and, contrary to their claims, made their criticisms through a press release and a series of tweets."

The Clinton campaign also released a set of ads including a 60-second spot highlighting Clinton's work on immigration reform, and contrasting her record with real estate mogul Donald Trump and Arpaio, who's endorsed Trump.

The Sanders campaign, however, has been aggressive in its own Latino outreach efforts. Sanders has lined up endorsements from more than a dozen prominent Latino Democrats in the state and on Thursday, it released a trio of ads featuring Tucson-based Congressman Raul Grijalva, a leading progressive who represents much of southern Arizona. One of Sanders's top surrogates, he's touted Sanders as a "change agent" and cut a Spanish language ad on Sanders’ behalf, arguing that the "values that Bernie has are the values of this country."

The pattern in Democratic primaries and caucuses so far is that Sanders has had the advantage among younger voters and less diverse electorates while Clinton has had the upper hand in more diverse electorates and among older voters. Arizona is closer to the latter.

"She's doing very well with whites over 50, which is most whites. Half of the [early] white vote that’s in is over 65," Quinlan said, pointing to that as a positive sign for Clinton. "Frankly I just think Hillary's organization is stronger and the fact is I just think she has a built-in Demographic advantage."

Sanders isn’t just fighting demographics in Arizona – he’s also fighting against a candidate who is very well known in the state.

"The Clintons have been very popular in Arizona. President Bill Clinton has visited on multiple occasions to campaign on behalf of Democrats over the last two, four cycles," said Arizona Democratic Party chairwoman Alexis Tameron. "So there's a familial essence to that. And I also do think it's a belief amongst political types that Latinos are drawn to the Clintons like Latinos are drawn to the Kennedys type of reference in which you can see that places like Texas where she performs pretty well in polling and has performed pretty well in presidential contests."

Clinton, who led by 26 percentage points in the only recent polling, hasn't yet campaigned in the state (her first campaign stop is Monday) while Sanders has made stops three times and his campaign has attracted large crowds in the state.

"I think Hillary has the edge, especially coming out of this last Super Tuesday but I think that both campaigns are working hard for Arizona," Arizona Democratic Party Vice Chairman Doug Ballard said cautiously.

Early voting, which in Arizona starts about two weeks before the primary election, may hold some clues as to the eventual outcome. The numbers have offered some positive signs for Clinton: According to figures provided by the Arizona Democratic Party, of the 601,049 early ballot requests, 262,547 were returned, with 121,374 from voters 65 and over and another 75,504 from voters between the ages 50-64. Both age groups have been friendly to Clinton in other states.

By contrast, just 18,842 ballots have been returned from voters between the ages of 25 to 34 and 8,959 from voters between 18 and 24 – ominous signs for Sanders, who runs best among younger voters.

Sanders chief strategist Tad Devine acknowledged the challenges facing the campaign in Arizona but remained optimistic that Sanders might pull out a victory.

"I think Hillary's ahead. I concede that. I think she had a bump out of Tuesday there as well," Devine said. "There's a lot of early vote and she tends to be very much ahead with the early vote. I think about half the people have already voted in Arizona. So I think she has an advantage. But I think we're closing hard."

