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Here’s a developing story about revolution, rogue nations, geopolitics, and that stuff we all just can’t get enough of – Oil.

The Libyan prime minister on Saturday issued a warning to the North Korean-flagged oil tanker “Morning Glory:” If it tries to ship oil from a Libyan port, it will be bombed. According to March 10 report by Al Jazeera, Libyan naval forces have been deployed to the port in which the ship is moored, and are preparing to attack if it attempts to leave. Libya’s culture minister Al-Habib al-Amin made this statement to Al Jazeera: “It’s final and decisive. Any attempt [by the tanker] to move, it will be turned into scrap.” The tanker is reportedly filled with $36 million worth of crude oil.

The U.S. State Department in a March 9 press release stated that the U.S. is “deeply concerned” by the reports of the ship, and that the attempt to leave port with the oil “is counter to law and amounts to theft from the Libyan people.”

To understand how this event came about, it is important to examine the recent history of Libya, and Libyan-North Korean relations.

Muammar Gaddafi ruled Libya since he took power in a coup d’état in 1969, up until he was killed in 2011. Inspired by the Tunisian protests that started the Arab Spring, Libyans began taking to the streets to protest against the human rights abuses that his regime had inflicted upon the country. In February of 2011, Libyan security forces responded with brutal attacks against protesters. This seemed to fuel the flames, as the protest movements grew into a civil war across the country. A new government made up of the regimes opposition, known as the National Transition Council (NTC), was formed, and was acknowledged by foreign governments as the legitimate government of Libya. NTC forces were supported by NATO, which significantly weakened Gadaffi’s army. He was killed by rebel forces in October 2011.

Fast forward to today. The people attempting to sell the oil to North Korea are made up of former anti-Gaddafi rebels that never turned in their weapons after the civil war, a major problem plaguing Lybia. They have taken control of three ports in the country. According to Reuters, the “prime minister” of the separatist movement has claimed that any attack on the tanker “would be a declaration of war.” This is a tough position for the Libyan government, because the rebel group is well-armed and has fighting experience, while the Libyan government has a relatively small force that has not been fully developed. Instead the Libyan government has been apprehensively relying on the same armed groups it is seeking to disband to maintain control in some parts of the country, including sections of the capitol Tripoli.

Now, how does North Korea, all the way over in East Asia, come into play? Again, a brief history lesson is needed. North Korea and Libya officially established relations in 1974, and began trade. Libya exported oil to North Korea, and it is believed that North Korea sold military equipment, including technology that allows for the development of nuclear weapons to Gadaffi. This current deal shows how relations have developed over history, and how world geopolitics has changed.

One, North Korea is looking to diversify its suppliers of oil. With its old pal China giving it strong warnings against destabilizing the East Asia region, North Korea realizes it needs to find other sources of energy. Two, it shows how organized Libya’s rebel forces are. They are finding ways to fund their efforts, even if it means turning to a country that (for good reason) is seen as an enemy by most of the world. Three, it also shows how the new Libyan government plans to interact with the world. Because the NTC was largely backed by western countries, it will most likely continue to maintain favorable relations with them. This means that it probably will not be making any deals with North Korea any time soon.

What will happen in the next few days? It’s hard to tell. Hopefully things settle down soon, because if the tanker is destroyed that $36 million worth of oil won’t make it to North Korea; it will instead be floating in the Mediterranean Sea.

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