During the NFL draft, the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins agreed on a trade involving quarterback Josh Rosen. A year removed from drafting him 10th overall, Arizona is moving on. The whole process puzzled Cardinals fans and generated criticism from the media. Furthermore, Miami’s decision to acquire the quarterback divided their fan base. So, what’s with the mixed feelings? Is Josh Rosen a franchise-caliber quarterback or not?

When deciphering where a quarterback’s heading it’s best to look at where he’s been. Now, my attempt to twist football and a famous cliche together might come off as cheesy. But stick with me here, and I promise it will all make sense in the end. In other words, I’m stating that we must look to the tape. The game film is where we’ll find the real Josh Rosen. Why the Miami Dolphins felt he was worth taking a chance on. Not on social media, highlight reels (or lowlight reels), or sports news networks. Before moving forward, we must agree on that.

It’s all a big misunderstanding–or is it?

We must also understand that with the game film we can see what we want to see–to a degree. As someone who breaks down film for another, I could emphasize any attribute of a player I’d like. One could say that Rosen is trash. That he makes terrible decisions and folds under pressure. Follow that statement with a tasteful clip, and an impression takes hold.

It could very well be used oppositely, too. I could push a narrative that Josh Rosen reminds me of Green Bay Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Both being California guys with NFL arms. I could explain how Rosen’s ability to elude the rush and use his extreme agility will give defensive coordinators nightmares for the next 20 years. Just take a look at the breakaway speed. Eat your heart out, Kyler Murray.

First off, both of these plays did occur, and both players are Josh Rosen. He’ll make a wrong decision from time to time. He isn’t immune to that. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady isn’t immune to that. When pressured, he can evade the rush. He’s proven he can run if needed, albeit not his strongest trait. What’s missing from both examples is a general context and evidence of recurrence — more on that later.

No matter your stance, it’s probably skewed. I imagine my opinion is. In a way, I’m trying to rebirth my take on Rosen, the football player. I witnessed some of the things being said by analysts and read a few articles leading up to the 2018 and 2019 NFL drafts. These points were reinforced on tape, and I was sold. And whether I’m for or against him doesn’t matter at this point. Starting right now, I’m giving the guy a do-over, and you should, too.

Back to the future

In the past five NFL drafts, 16 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Half of those coming in the last two years. For the sake of this argument, let’s use a commonly visited website as our source. Leading up to the draft, NFL.com has player profiles with measurables, experienced commentary, and prospect grades. Say what you want about their system. I’m not here to debate if it works or not. I’m just using it for some perspective.

Coming out of college Rosen was given a 6.19. These grades land on a scale from 0-10 where most prospects are between 5.00 and 6.00. For example, this year’s top player, Nick Bosa was graded at 6.55. The player selected dead last was given a grade of 5.11. Now, back to the quarterbacks.

The average grade of all 16 signal callers taken in the first round for the previous five drafts is 6.23. The highest was 7.00 and lowest, 5.81. With that said, Rosen was an undeniable first-round talent hidden in, arguably, the most talented quarterback class since 2015. So, how did he get there?

Freshman phenom

Before football, Rosen was a tennis prodigy. He’d rank nationally at the age of 12. But football stole his heart. Before high school, he’d make the switch, and the rest is history. He’d graduate with a 4.3 GPA and become a five-star recruit according to both Rivals.com and Scout.com. Rosen was considered the best quarterback in his recruiting class and would commit to UCLA in March of 2014.

From there he’d become the first true freshman to start the very first game of the season at the University of California, Los Angeles. It didn’t take long for Rosen to make an impression. He was very “Trevor Lawrence” in his first season under center. In that game, he’d go 28 of 35 for 351 yards and three scores.

Rosen would complete the year with more than 3,500 yards passing and 23 touchdowns. Expectations were high for the PAC-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year. If you can’t recall the period, think of some of the more recent examples. Do you remember when Alabama’s quarterback entered into the 2018 national championship game? The guy brought the Crimson Tide back from the dead to take the trophy. How did that make you feel about Tua Tagovailoa? Or how about the guy I’ve already mentioned, Trevor Lawrence? Clemson would win last year’s title with him. What do they all have in common? They were true-freshman quarterbacks.

Sophomore slump?

If you want a solid feel for a prospect, you’d be best served to notice how they improve from year one to two. Unfortunately for Rosen, it wasn’t great. Furthermore, a shoulder injury would prematurely end his season after six games. Of course, it wasn’t all bad.

But there wasn’t a lot of good. And it wasn’t all on Rosen (where have we heard this before?). He was blitzed, his linemen were bullied, and he was banged up. His running backs were not effective in picking up the pass rush. Because of these things, Rosen couldn’t consistently remain on schedule. When it did come together, the receivers would drop the easiest of balls.

Sometimes things go your way, and you feel nothing can stop you. When things don’t work out so well, it’s as if you can do no right. That’s when you find yourself pressing. Rosen felt he needed to come through all too often in 2016. The adversity set in and he’d force the action. The worse thing you can do is compound mistakes. These sort of circumstances can turn ugly rather quickly.

Before the injury, Rosen’s statistics were nearly identical to his freshman campaign. With that said, the team wasn’t as successful. The Bruins would finish 4-8 (3-3 with Rosen) and fail to live up to their preseason ranking in the polls.

Third time’s the charm

Rosen’s shoulder surgery would go well. He’d be back on the field in no time. In what many considered a season for resurgence, Rosen would not disappoint. While his efforts in a week one victory over Texas A&M were admirable, it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows–for a while.

For the first time at UCLA, Rosen looked consistently uncomfortable. His technique would waver because of it. The gap of time between playing in a real game situation could’ve been the cause. Another potential variable could be offensive coordinator, Noel Mazzone. After the 2015 season, Mazzone would take over the same duty for Texas A&M. Yes, the same Texas A&M that was currently handing it to UCLA. What Rosen needed was a more gradual approach to begin his junior year. Instead, the experience was reminiscent of the last time he was out there.

If not for a lucky completion before halftime, Rosen’s first two quarters as a junior went about as bad as you could imagine. With or without pressure, Rosen was on edge. His throws were all over the target. This wasn’t the welcoming party one would’ve expected. Then, with his team down 34 points, Rosen did something I hadn’t seen to this point in his college career.

The way UCLA hung in there is a testament to who Josh Rosen is as a player, teammate and potential leader. You can’t get down 34 points with under 17 minutes to play and come back with a spoiled brat at quarterback. Does this mean Rosen hasn’t had his moments? Not at all. I full heartedly believe there’s maturation needed. But what young prospect entering the NFL under 25 years old doesn’t?

Welcome to the NFL, Rookie

Selected 10th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, Josh Rosen was now the future of the Arizona Cardinals franchise. And by future, I mean the backup until current quarterback Sam Bradford was injured or benched. Whichever comes first.

After an 0-3 beginning to the season, Rosen would get the nod for a home matchup against the division rival Seattle Seahawks. As expected, the rookie quarterback would be affected by the speed of the game. Right out of the gate you could tell he wasn’t quite right. On the very first possession, he’d sail a couple throws and then get sacked.

Despite the rough start, Rosen would play very well. According to PFF, he’d grade out higher than any other offensive player in his debut. Now, is this because he was exceptionally good or because his teammates played that poorly? For this reason, I had to continue looking at this game.

Settle down, Josh

I’m glad I did. Similarly to that of Rosen’s first game as a college freshman, he’d settle in after a couple of quick completions. He’d even take a shot early just to be let down. He’d have to get used to it, though. Rosen’s surrounding cast was one of the worst in the NFL.

Unfortunately, the touchdown would get called back. Even though the score wouldn’t count, there’s plenty to like from Rosen’s resolve and guts in his first few plays as a pro. He seems to handle the situation well even with his supporting cast continuing to work against him. This next pass should’ve been caught and possibly taken in for a score. These guys are professional football players correct?

This is one game. Could you imagine playing quarterback for a team this inept for 13 to 14 games? Now, I fully realize why Cardinals fans didn’t necessarily want to draft Kyler Murray. I kept hearing the “too many holes to fill” argument, and they’re exactly right.

Josh Rosen was not the problem in week four. He did all that was asked of him and then some. I thoroughly enjoyed what I saw from him and hope the guy can build off that going into the remainder of the season. Let’s see if he remains a strength in an otherwise weak offensive attack.

Developing consistency

Of course, not everything works out the way you’d hope. Rosen was still a rookie on a team lacking talent. Regardless of who was expected to block or secure catches, Rosen wasn’t exactly sharp with the football either. This is apparent throughout his entire rookie season. Just turn on any game, and you’ll find those “what was he thinking” moments.

As I stated earlier, there are two specific things I look for when studying a player’s film. First and foremost I want to know the context. Football is a situational game. Every situation will affect a player’s thought process as well as their actions. Good or bad. The next component is consistency. Are there bad habits? Does the player consistently make the proper read?

After the Rosen trade transpired, film studies began popping up all over the internet. Much of the same things are being discussed. Rosen is inconsistent. Being a rookie comes with a learning curve. Furthermore, a lot of the negative things that occurred with him while in Arizona had to do with playcalling, protection, and timing.

Conclusion

As a quarterback, you get the glory and all the criticism. For Rosen, praise and success have followed him since he was a teenager. It could be argued that most professional athletes possess talents that tend to benefit them in their rise to the pros. Still, Rosen has had it too easy. Even so, I’ve seen plenty of adversity on his tape to formulate an opinion on the guy.

For me, Rosen was a freshman stud back in 2015. I can’t help but think his college team held him back. All those no-name receivers and tight ends with double-digit receptions in games. Box score after box score with multiple players going for over 100 yards. Where are those guys at the next level? It’s clear that Rosen elevated the guys around him at UCLA. Since those teams were never title contenders, Rosen was recognized, but ultimately buried in his draft class.

My issue with him from a football standpoint is I saw little improvement with his production. Because he was so polished as a freshman, you had to look very closely to find the gains. I was impressed with his resolve by the time he was a junior. When you see success so early, it can be expected. Someone like Rosen could’ve taken it for granted. His sophomore year wasn’t what anyone expected it to be, and then the injury happened.

So is he a franchise quarterback?

After the injury which wasn’t significant enough to cause lasting physical damage, Rosen seemed off. Mentally he suffered a setback. Teams sent pressure at him, and while he never folded, he’d take some shots because of it. The hits would take their toll. From those few games as a sophomore up until now, Rosen has been off schedule at times. He’s added unnecessary elements to his once textbook attributes. In the NFL, Rosen is finding he isn’t always going to be able to stand tall, step up and release passes like he’d serve a tennis ball.

Rosen is a work in progress. The Miami Dolphins need to get his confidence back which may eliminate the rigidity and uncertainty he played with as a rookie. My fear is his protection, while improved, continues to work against his further development. The Dolphins offensive talent should give him an immediate boost, however. If the playcalling improves substantially, Rosen could surprise in year one. But these are a lot of “ifs.”

If I had to predict the outcome, I’d say Rosen becomes a franchise quarterback–just not in Miami. If he remains healthy all season, Dolphins fans stand to see things Ryan Tannehill couldn’t have done. However, a second-year player will frustrate aplenty. Sack fumbles and interceptions stand to increase at Hard Rock Stadium.

Honestly, no one knows how this will all turn out. While the draft capital given up for the quarterback has been up for debate, tell me which player offered this much upside? Add to it that Rosen is feeling disrespected and things could bode well for the Dolphins.

Something to prove

While I believe starting from the bottom makes a better man, never underestimate a person with something to prove. I would have given the Cardinals a fifth rounder just for the chip Rosen will be bringing to Miami Gardens. Dangerous is the man who’s on a mission.

I’ve seen Rosen down 34 points. He knew every possession was paramount. Similarly, Rosen is up against it. He’s down and his time is limited. On a one year tryout will he force the issue? Or will he take a step back, be calculated in his next move, and fake a spike for the winning touchdown in 2019?