Venezuela has put off a reckoning on its tens of billions of dollars in debt, but its ability to avoid a disastrous default will probably require much higher oil prices than appear likely in the next year or two, financial experts say.

With its oil production and international reserves falling at an accelerating rate, the government is juggling as fast as it can to pay for imported food and medicines while meeting its short-term bond payments. Even as the country has slashed imports, its reserves have declined by half over the last two years, to $10.4 billion. Most of that sum is in gold and is pledged as security for many of the government’s creditors, which include international institutional investors and everyday Venezuelans.

“The probability of default is rising,” said Stuart Culverhouse, head of sovereign and credit research at Exotix Partners, a London-based investment bank that trades Venezuelan bonds on behalf of clients. “So far their willingness to pay has been pretty firm, surprisingly so given the political situation. But you have to ask how long that can continue when they are probably spending more on debt service than imports.”

Complicating the picture is the escalating political turmoil challenging President Nicolás Maduro, who needs to shore up his popularity if he is to retain power in the elections scheduled for next year. Consumers have to endure long lines for food and other necessities, and hunger is spreading. With Venezuela’s refineries in disrepair, even gasoline is in short supply. A monthly inflation rate of 20 percent is shrinking the value of paychecks.