When the Rams inked Todd Gurley to a long-term extension last July, NFL super agent Lee Steinberg penned a piece for Forbes analyzing the deal. The headline: Setting A New Precedent: Todd Gurley’s Record NFL Contract.

Steinberg predicted that Gurley’s monstrous deal — a four-year, $60 million pact that included $45 million in guarantees — would reinvigorate the running back market. Not even 12 months later, we can safely say that won’t be the case as Gurley’s mysterious knee injury has the Rams already looking for other options at the running back position. NFL Media’s Ian Rapaport went as far as to say that the 24-year-old’s days of “being the straight-up, every-down bell cow are probably over.” Rapaport added:

“It’s probably not going to be like that, which by the way is maybe why the Rams drafted a running back in the third round, someone they really like a lot. This is a team that is clearly ready to spread the ball around.”

So maybe Gurley’s deal won’t set a new precedent, but it should reinforce the prevailing notion that giving a running back a big-money deal is not the smartest way for a team to spend its cap dollars.

That Gurley’s prime could be coming to a premature end isn’t the biggest shock — running backs age like milk — but even if he had remained healthy, the Rams would not be getting great value from this deal anyway. We’ve known for a while now that the passing game wins games, but the mounting evidence also shows that running backs have little control over the success of a team’s running game. Offensive line play and play-calling that dictates how many players opposing defenses put in the run box play much larger roles, and the 2018 Rams were a prime example of that being the case.

Related Kliff Kingsbury may unintentionally deliver the future stat nerds want for the NFL

In November, Gurley was still appearing on lists of MVP candidates. Then he hurt his knee and C.J. Anderson took over the starting job. You may have expected Los Angeles’ running game — one of the best in the league — to drop off considerably after replacing an elite back with a street free agent, but that isn’t what happened. The Rams’ running game kept chugging along thanks to excellent line play and Sean McVay’s manipulation of defenses.

Over the last month of the regular season, and into the playoffs when Gurley continued to lose snaps to Anderson after his return to the lineup, it became clear the Rams did not need Gurley to produce a good run game.

The numbers back this up, too. We’re obviously dealing with a smaller sample size here, but Anderson was a far more efficient runner than Gurley was in 2018. On Anderson runs, the Rams averaged 0.31 Expected Points Added, according to Sports Info Solutions. On Gurley’s runs, the average dropped to 0.12. That was barely higher than the average for Malcolm Brown runs (0.10). In fact, Brown finished ahead of Gurley in percentage of run attempts that ended with a positive EPA — 60% to 53%. Anderson led the group with 76% of his handoffs resulting in a positive EPA. If traditional stats are more your speed, Gurley and Brown both finished the season averaging 4.9 yards per carry while Anderson averaged 7.0.

In other words, the Rams’ run game was effective no matter who had the ball in their hands. Behind that line and with that coach calling plays, a highly-paid running back is more of a luxury than a necessity. In a league with a hard salary cap, teams can’t afford luxuries.

The Rams may have realized this too late. They’re now stuck with Gurley’s contract for at least two more seasons after his 2020 salary and roster bonus became fully guaranteed in March. For the next two years, Gurley will cost them an average of $13.2 million against the cap. And if the team does decide to move on from him in 2021, it’ll have to eat $8.4 million in dead cap in order to do so. That’s a lot of money for a rotational piece at a position that doesn’t move the needle for offenses.

Los Angeles is already preparing for life after Gurley. The team used a Day 2 pick on Memphis RB Darrell Henderson, whose biggest strength also happens to be Gurley’s biggest strength: Executing McVay’s favored outside zone runs.

Rams ran outside zone 217 times during 2018 regular season – 52 more than any other team Darrell Henderson on outside zone last two years:

53 Attempts

569 Yards

10.7 YPC (led nation)

7.0 YAC/Attempt (led nation)

23 First downs

16 broken tackles — Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) May 8, 2019

That the Rams needed to invest such a high pick at a position they just poured $45 million guaranteed into a year ago is enough to declare that Todd Gurley’s contract is already a complete and utter disaster.