The chant "Drill Baby Drill!", commonly heard at Republican rallies last autumn, became one of the most memorable slogans of the 2008 US presidential election. Oil prices had skyrocketed, with prices running to almost $150 a barrel. While John McCain suggested ratcheting up domestic oil production as the solution, Barack Obama promised a technological revolution that would allow the development of green alternatives to petrol within 10 years. Energy independence became the watchword of the day.

President Obama clearly believes America's addiction to oil is a national security problem, and is calling for the US to wean itself off foreign oil. Just six days into his presidency, he declared: "America's dependence on oil is one of the most serious threats our nation has faced. It bankrolls dictators, pays for nuclear proliferation, and funds both sides of our struggle against terrorism."

Among the steps toward energy independence he recommends are improving energy efficiency and building fuel-­efficient vehicles. But although these initiatives will reduce oil consumption, they will not remotely achieve the goal of US energy independence.

The US will never again meet oil demand through domestic production, as it faces permanent declines. The 1970s saw the American peak in oil production. Since then, annual production rates in the US have fallen. The US accounts for nearly one quarter of worldwide oil consumption, and now close to 60% of that must be imported. Even a huge increase in the number of wells drilled there cannot reduce the import level by more than a few percentage points.

Potential new oil discoveries, including any in the Arctic national wildlife refuge, will be insufficient to reverse projected declines. The US is more extensively explored than any other country, and estimates by the US Geological Survey dash any hope of drilling to energy independence. Too little oil remains in American reservoirs.

Switching to alternative sources of energy is touted as the other great solution. But even high oil prices and market forces are unlikely to halt US import dependence, as no meaningful near and midterm alternatives exist.

Options to limit or end oil dependence in the transportation sector include fuel switching and improvements in fuel economy. Fuel switching entails the retooling of the transportation sector to vehicles powered by natural gas, electricity, biofuels or hydrogen fuel cells. Fuel economy improvements could be attained by the more widespread adoption of either hybrid cars or diesel-powered vehicles.

Although these changes might affect consumption per mile, projected increases in travel would more than offset such gains. This means that nothing short of fuel switching can reduce oil usage to the point where all oil used is produced domestically.

Fuel switching is likelier to occur in an era of high oil prices, but market incentives are low now that oil prices have slid from the record highs of summer 2008.

High-volume US oil importation will remain a constant for at least two to three decades. The current global energy market presents many geostrategic challenges. These include the stability of oil producers, terrorism, embargoes, sanctions and ethnic conflicts.

Also, by 2020, Chinese consumption will outpace that of the US. This adds an additional challenge for national security planners, as the US has previously been the sole superpower engaging oil-producing regions and trying to influence their politics. A rising China is likely to challenge the US for access and influence throughout the oil-exporting world.

Within the developed world, renewable production from wind, solar and geothermal sources will need to be dramatically increased. This will eventually free fossil fuels for transportation use as opposed to electrical generation.

Where oil originates is largely irrelevant economically, so developing diverse supplies of energy globally may be the best energy security for all importers – not just the US. The major energy-consuming countries must work together on long-term solutions to replace oil rather than worrying about where it comes from.

• Wesley J. Reisser is a PhD student at the University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Geography. He will be presenting a talk entitled The Myth of Energy Independence at the Association of American Geographers national conference in Las Vegas, which opens on Sunday.