TOKYO — Toyota roared back to a hefty profit in the first quarter and said on Friday that it intended to build a record-breaking 9.76 million cars this year, leading a recovery by Japanese automakers after a year of natural disasters and a punishingly strong currency.

Though the strong yen continues to weigh on the bottom lines of Japanese exporters, many other things are going right for Japanese automakers. Supply chains that were severed are now up and running, and manufacturers like Toyota and Honda, racing to meet pent-up demand, are fast regaining lost ground in profitable markets like the United States. Japanese government incentives on fuel-efficient cars have revived markets at home.

Whether Japanese automakers can keep up the momentum after these tailwinds dissipate is another question, analysts said.

“They’re at the peak of their momentum, but for quite transient reasons,” said Takaki Nakanishi, an auto analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo. “It’s not party time. Japanese automakers still face tough conditions and competition, and a slowdown is likely in the second half.”