I am going to try and get this out before lock tonight, but in case I don’t, you have the cheatsheets at least. In an attempt to bring you improved content, we are changing the format of Boomer’s Ballers going forward. Keith and ChoppoDong are teaming up after the All-Star Break to bring you not only the who’s to play, but the why’s. Bear with us as we hammer out the next couple slates to work out some inevitable kinks. The plan going forward is to bring you data with enough time to crunch before games lock on FanDuel. Tonight is going to be the exception, not the rule.

Your Starting Five! (where we plan to break down a top slate option with the stats to back it up)

PG – Isaiah Thomas (FD $8000) – You are going to hear this echoed all post to the point you are sick of me saying it, but a crappy 5 game slate without a lot of bonafide stud players is going to dictate a bump in value to many players you might pass up on other slates. The primary reason you should like IT2 tonight is because you can roster a higher salaried player along with Steph Curry without crippling the rest of your roster……and that has value! Heck, you can roster Curry, IT2, and Draymond Green tonight without having to punt anywhere. However, IT2 also has some redeeming qualities.

You are looking at Thomas’ salary from FD over the past 10 days. Notice the visible price drop (blue line)? As fantasy investors, we look to buy low and sell high. The green bars indicate IT2 exceeded projections (more on that someday) in 4 of his last 5 games. His price is creeping back up, but tonight he is at a playable price point considering the lack of other choices. He offers a nice floor in a game carrying a 200+ total. Key indicators are that IT2 averages 30+min, 25+ pts, 3+ assists, and 20%+ usage over the past month.

SG – Bradley Beal ($6000) – This is a joke of a price for the talent level of a Bradley Beal. He is getting starter’s minutes again, was $7500 as recently as December, and has some peripherals providing a bit of a floor (something you don’t often see with shooting guards). Defensively, he draws a decent matchup and has legit 45pt upside. That’s 7X, baby!

You can see his price has also dropped. This is due to recent performance, but we have seen indication of a rebound in production in relation to his suppressed price. If you look at a recent game log, you see fantasy points in the upper 20s with regularity lately. I’d gladly take 28 from a 6k player. He brings a high usage rate and a low dud% over the recent past.

SF – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($7300) – Keith teased me and said he took Giannis just so I’d have to type his name over and over and over again. Ok. Ha……ha…..haa. I’m just going to call him The Greek Freak because that’s easy to spell. So, suck on that, Keith! Honestly, though, Greek Freak is in a decent spot. He’s paced up over 5 possessions tonight in a game with a nice total of 208. And, if you look at his salary, yes, it’s depressed like the others featured in our theme tonight.

I could go on and on about how you are getting 35+ minutes and over 20% usage again along with 6+ rebounds and 25 pts per game over the past month, but I’d almost rather point the “he’s due” crowd to the almost spotlight pattern he exhibits with his up and down game. Look at a game log of him and you will see 40pt games alternating with 20pt games back almost as far as the eye can see. If you are into narratives, I thought I’d bring up that he had a 20pt game last time out. So……..you know what that means???

PF – Derrick Favors ($7300) – There is one distinction to this pick over the also $7300 LaMarcus Aldridge. No, not that he’s paced up 3.5 tonight. Not that Favors is experiencing his own 10day price drop…

Not the usage rate of 22%. Not the 6 rebounds per game helping his floor. Not even the bonus of a decent matchup defensively. Those aren’t the key distinction because Aldridge is eerily similar in those categories, too. The one distinguishing factor comes on a 5 game slate………….differentiation. Everyone is aware of Aldridge playing better lately and being priced a little low still. Don’t get me wrong, LMA is a fine play. But, on a 5 game slate, there will be enough overlap in players to make you sick already. Here is a nice spot to give yourself that little bit of uniqueness that can separate you from the herd tonight.

C – Dwight Howard ($7900) – If you’ve noticed one thing so far, it could be that these players are priced similarly at all positions tonight. That’s the intrigue of this slate. A balanced LU is not only recommended, it’s almost required. There is simply no reason to punt with a player in the $4500 range, much less the $3500 range.

Look at what Dwight’s price has done this week. He tossed out a series of mediocre performances and BAM…..freefall. Well, until he put up a solid game. Once again, buy low! He has the ceiling, and you aren’t likely getting excited over really anyone else on the slate. He is playing GSW tonight and if Harden sits, Howard gets a bump in usage. If this one is going to stay close, it’s on Harden’s shoulders along with his. And, if Harden sits, he may well become the top center play on the board…..and a late night hammer, to boot.

That was a run at a starting five. How about some bonus plays?!

GPP Play of the Night – John Wall ($10200) – This is a straight contrarian play off of Curry. Heck, on tonight’s slate you can even get him in WITH Curry. Wall has 60pt upside, is $700 cheaper, and few will be on him with Curry being the chalk. The “double high” point guard tactic is very much in play to further differentiate your LU off the masses in GPPs because it will force you to find some value where others will be paying up for Draymond Green or James Harden.

Stud of the Night – Carmelo Anthony ($8900) – Again with the Curry talk? We know Curry is chalk. He could fit in any of these picks, but there would be no educational value in that discussion. If you call Curry the stud of the night, I won’t argue with you too much. But, we are looking to Carmelo here. Melo is much better at home and WAS has been a defensive sieve of late. With Porzingas slumping and question marks everywhere with the Knicks, Melo is the only player we trust to roster. Add in the scarcity of the SF position and that tips the scales. Melo will be in quite a few of our LUs tonight.

Value of the Night – Rodney Hood ($5800) – This was honestly a toss-up with Beal, but Hood is $200 cheaper. Another reason is the heavy usage he typically receives in UTA where he’s hit expectation 8 of his last 10, is paced up nicely, and honestly just hasn’t seen his price catch up to his production yet.

Fade of the Night – James Harden ($10800) – I fell for this last week and Keith reminded me of a near cardinal rule regarding Harden. Wait to roster him until he proves he can do something worthy in a game Dwight Howard also plays. I don’t really need to say a lot more. It really is that simple. Add in the GTD status in the hammer game and you really don’t want to miss on what is truly a high-risk play. Look at his game logs, or use StatMuse or NBAWowy searches, to see how he performs with Howard. He rarely brings value to your LU, especially at his current price tag.

That will do it for tonight’s short slate. I hope you like the format going forward. We will change up with charts we show you from slate to slate, and we plan to teach as we provide picks and cheatsheets…..which you will find below. Soldiers dismissed!

NBA Cheat Sheet PDF