We have liftoff. But what does the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade mean for housing, especially mortgage rates?

In May 2013, then-Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke sparked a furor by pointing out the inevitable: The central bank would start buying fewer bonds as part of its economic stimulus program, and then consider raising rates.

The ensuing “taper tantrum” roiled bond markets — and housing. The 10-year Treasury spiked 140 basis points over the following months. Mortgage rates followed, and home sales and mortgage applications plunged.

Analysts say this time is different.

“We think that the fact that they’re ready [to raise rates] is a reflection of an improving domestic economy,” said Lynn Fisher, vice president of research and economics with the Mortgage Bankers Association. The jobless rate is at a 7-year low and wage growth is starting to heat up, Fisher pointed out. Both will buoy demand.

Read: OK, the Fed’s raised interest rates — now what?

Even if the Fed goes ahead with a second increase in the spring, the MBA expects mortgage originations to rise 10% and forecasts a 15% jump in housing starts in 2016. In a statement released after the Fed announcement, the group noted that it will continue to monitor the central bank’s plans for the mortgage bond securities it amassed after the financial crisis.

Steve East, chief economist and market strategist for Height Securities, doesn’t think the Fed’s moves will have much impact on the broader rate market. The Fed controls the levers on the short end of the yield curve, but for the longer end, which helps drive mortgage rates, “presumably some rate hike cycle is priced in,” East said.

On Wednesday, after the announcement, the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 2.27%. The 2-year note, which is more sensitive to the central bank’s actions, leapt just after the announcement but settled back down to 0.99%.

Fed officials have downgraded their own forecasts for the trajectory of rates over the next few years, and East expects that by the time the central bank is done tightening the benchmark rate will be 2% to 2.5%. That’s a signal that the market has already priced in much of the expected rate hikes, East said.

Policy makers said Wednesday that they expect that rate to touch 3.25% in 2018. Many economists are wary of projections that far in the future.

Even if the Fed’s actions do hit the mortgage market, East said, “I don’t think a 25 basis point increase in mortgage rates is going to make a difference in demand.”

Consumers seem to agree. When online brokerage Redfin conducted a survey in September, only 5% of respondents called rising rates a concern. And that same survey indicated that demand hadn’t let up: Rising house prices and competition from other buyers were the two biggest concerns.

Just as the bond market had priced in some of the Fed’s actions, consumers are doing the same, said Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson.

It’s “embedded in the consumer mind-set,” she said. “They know about rates. They also understand in a very savvy way that rates aren’t expected to rise quickly.”

Joan Rogers, a real-estate agent in Portland, Ore., is a bit more wary. In her market, the supply of available homes can’t keep up with surging demand, driving prices sky-high. Portland surpassed its bubble-era price high in August, according to S&P/Case-Shiller, and prices in September were 10% higher than a year ago.

That’s hardest for the most vulnerable buyers, Rogers said, including first-timers, and even small rate rises will make homeownership that much harder for those who are already stretching.

“The more purchasing power we take away from people who don’t have it, the harder it’s going to be for them,” Rogers said.

There is some concern that “move-up” buyers may feel locked in to the ultralow rates they’ve got already, a phenomenon some analysts call “rate lock.” Still, with so much demand for properties in most metro areas, current owners could do better than they expect.