The Illinois governor’s race was supposed to be a clash of two fabulously rich politicians, an election so expensive that it might end up costing more than a quarter-billion dollars.

But with just four weeks to go until the March 20 primary, it’s not even certain that Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner and billionaire Democrat J.B. Pritzker will be their parties’ nominees in the general election.


Both are fighting off long-shot rivals who have, against all odds, put a scare into their cash-flush campaigns — and reminded them of the roiling grass-roots anger in both political parties.

“I think the people of Illinois are being confronted with the choice between a middle-class progressive and another out-of-touch billionaire and it’s not a hard call for people,” said Democratic state Sen. Daniel Biss, who has seen a steady rise in both polling and campaign funding in his bid against Pritzker. “There's all kinds of energy out there. This is what we all thought was going to happen. Donald Trump is the president, Bruce Rauner is governor. Inexperienced billionaires are not what people are going for.”

Opposition research dumps, a dizzying number of scandals and $50 million in TV ads have taken their toll on Rauner and Pritzker. The governor faces new criticism over veterans who died of Legionnaires’ disease in a state-run facility and was tagged by a conservative magazine as “The Worst Republican Governor in America.” Pritzker is confronted with unflattering FBI recordings from a 2008 investigation into the now-incarcerated former Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The Rauner and Pritzker campaigns say they still hold firm leads in private polls — Pritzker even released his own poll numbers showing him leading Kennedy, his next closest challenger, by double digits. But their opponents see promise in the shifting poll numbers and in their own surprising fundraising figures, which together have forced the once iron-clad front-runners to recast their focus on primary challengers they had all but ignored.

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"You cannot lose your base and think you're going to be elected," said state Rep. Jeanne Ives, who is tapping into conservative unrest surrounding Rauner after he signed a bill expanding taxpayer funding of abortion. "He's politically tone deaf if he doesn't understand that the base will not elect him."

A recent poll from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling showed even Donald Trump is more popular in the blue state than the Republican governor. While the survey showed 37 percent of Illinois voters held a favorable opinion of Trump and 58 percent gave him an unfavorable rating, Rauner’s favorable rating stood at only 26 percent — with a 63 percent unfavorable rating.

Ives still has a ways to go, however: A January poll showed Rauner leading Ives by 40 points, though Ives points out that it was taken before she began an ad campaign that has driven up her name ID.

Rauner’s first term has been beset by turmoil, from staff turnover to his handling of a Legionnaires’ disease outbreak at a state-run veterans facility. The controversy surrounding the outbreak grew so intense — in all, 13 veterans died because of the illness — Rauner checked into the facility for a week, declaring the state had a handle on it when he left.

But four new cases emerged since last week. And a veteran whom Rauner invited as a guest to the State of the State address later tested positive for the bacteria.

With Rauner’s attention trained elsewhere — and on Pritzker — the little-known Ives quietly gained momentum, tapping into party loyalists angered over Rauner’s signature on a bill expanding taxpayer funding of abortion. She collected scattered local endorsements and delivered a dominating performance at a live-streamed newspaper debate.

Then came a difference-making contribution: conservative millionaire donor Dick Uihlein gave $2.5 million to Ives, allowing her to air TV ads attacking the governor. And in addition to support from Uihlein, she has received contributions from Chicago Bears owner Virginia McCaskey, Otto Engineering's Tom Roeser and Huizenga Capital's Peter Huizenga.

Dan Proft, an Ives campaign strategist who once supported Rauner, expects the GOP base to come through for Ives.

“We are continuing to raise money from small donors, more than 1,000 such donors in the part four weeks, as well as individuals with more means who can write five- and six-figure checks,” Proft wrote in an email. “Ives will not only compete but she will [bring] the upset if we are able to get to the threshold resources needed to introduce herself, expose the real Rauner record on both moral and fiscal issues to the 800,000 GOP primary voters, 80% of whom self-identify as conservative. That is a work in progress.”

Pat Brady, a former state Republican Party chairman, insisted that conservative primary challenges in Illinois are nothing new, and called Ives a "long shot" whose positions are well outside the party mainstream. He pointed to an Ives ad that was so controversial that some of the most conservative members of the GOP called on her to take it down.

“There’s always a protest candidate,” said Brady, a Rauner supporter. “They always get a certain number [of votes], but she’s kind of shot herself early on with the racist ad and some of the positions she’s taken."

Ives’ stances might even be too hard line for the Republican Governors Association to support her in a state like Illinois: The RGA, whose policy is to support incumbents, would likely not play in the general election if Rauner loses, according to an operative close to the organization.

“Rep. Ives is simply unelectable,” said Rauner campaign spokesman Will Allison. “Gov. Rauner has a plan to cut taxes and reform government, and that's why he will win this primary and defeat J.B. Pritzker in November.”

Rauner has already put $50 million of his own money into the campaign, while Pritzker, who quickly amassed endorsements from labor and teachers, has contributed $56 million out of his own pocket.

On the Democratic side, Pritzker has been badly bruised by negative ads and fallout from his insensitive remarks about an African-American elected official that was caught on tape during an FBI probe of Blagojevich.

But it’s not Pritzker’s primary challengers who have dealt him the toughest blows. According to Advertising Analytics, 30 percent of the $12 million Rauner has spent so far on broadcast ads — some $3.6 million — went toward attacking Pritzker.

“I think it's very surprising for an incumbent governor to make a decision that he's going to play in another party’s primary,” Pritzker campaign manager Anne Caprara said. “I don't necessarily think it's a great calculation against us. That is a testament of how expensive this has been for Rauner and it's not paying off. He's not knocking us out of the race. He’s not improved his numbers at all.”

Biss and Chris Kennedy, the third prominent Democratic candidate, argue that despite Pritzker vastly outspending them, his polling numbers have leveled off. And they warn that if the billionaire wins the Democratic primary, he is the candidate most vulnerable to losing to Rauner because of his wealth and his connections to both Blagojevich and state Democratic Party Chairman Michael Madigan, the powerful state House speaker who is grappling with a new sexual harassment controversy in his ranks.

Pritzker says the opposite is true. He contends he is the sole candidate who not only has the resources to defeat Rauner, but a résumé that includes creating Chicago's tech incubator 1871 and the jobs that came with it.

"What is at stake here is the fabric, the soul of this state," Pritzker told POLITICO. "Look at how Bruce Rauner's failures have driven working families off a cliff. At the kitchen table in most homes, people's wages are stagnant, the cost of kids' education has gone up ... but the standard of living has gone down. He doesn't understand how to run the state."

Pritzker's team says the businessman has proved he can take arrows and still emerge victorious. His campaign released internal poll numbers to POLITICO showing he still has a comfortable lead at 37 percent of those polled, with Kennedy at 23 and Biss with 21. The Global Strategy Group conducted a live telephone survey of 802 likely Democratic primary voters from Feb. 9 to 13, asking, "If the Democratic primary election were held today who would you vote for?"

A We Ask America poll from January showed Pritzker with about 30 percent, Biss with 17, Kennedy with 11 percent and a huge 39 percent still undecided. Biss released a poll showing he could beat Rauner in the fall by a greater margin than Pritzker, but declined to release internal primary polling numbers.

Biss, who was expected to finish no better than third in the primary, is now the target of Pritzker’s attacks — the billionaire has cut at least three TV ads attacking him. Biss has more money in the bank than Kennedy in the closing weeks of the campaign and polls show he's had the greatest movement, in part because he has positioned himself as the middle-class candidate, releasing ads that lump together Kennedy and Pritzker as out-of-touch millionaires.

Kennedy campaign manager Brendan O’Sullivan told POLITICO the Democratic primary is still evolving, even at this late date.

“Thirty-two days is not a lot of time left, but it’s a lifetime on campaigns,” said O’Sullivan. “Thirty-two days out, Hillary Clinton was on her way to being the first woman president in October so is there another tape out there for Pritzker? There are four more debates that are going to happen. We think there’s a lot of time left for things to shake out still.”

