I have to admit, the first time I did this a couple of weeks ago I may have been more hopeful than realistic (Here). You see all these teams with sparkiling records and you begin to think that they are better than the 8th best team in a power conference. I realize that may or may not be true, but I also realize that just the fact those 9-10-11-12 loss teams play a much tougher schedule, in general, and that of course is a major factor in determining at-large tournament bids.

Anyways, let’s take a look at who is still representing the top spots in their conference, and see who has taken over since the last time we did this exericse.

American East – Vermont (21-5, 11-0)

Here’s one of those sparkiling records now. 10 years in a row they have won at least 20 games and remain one of the best home teams in the nation. The Catamounts have a three game lead in the American East with five games to play. Their next three games are on the road, including a tilt at New Hampshire (6-6) in conference on Thursday. That is a rivarly game and they are the most likely team to knock off Vermont if anyone is going to do it.

In with a loss – I said close a couple weeks ago, but I think I fell in love with their RPI that was higher than I expected, which is currently 49th. But, there best win is against Bradley, and that enough won’t do it. I guess if they lost in the finals of the AE tournament they have a slight chance to be an at-large, but it’s small.

Bracket Buster – If they make it in, they have a great chance to be a bracket buster. I can even see a few scenarios where they are the rare higher seed who is favored in Vegas to win their first round game.

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island (20-3, 12-0)

Another team that’s done nothing but win since our first look at them. They hold a four game lead with just five to play, and at 18th in the country they are a virtual lock to be dancing in March. There big problem that will cost them a higher seed in March is that they have no signature wins. In fact, there best win is Seton Hall, if you are looking at it from an RPI standpoint. However, they’ve had a great year, with minimal hopes of a Sweet 16 birth.

In with a loss – Yes. They could probably even lose 2-3 and still be safe, but I don’t think there is much worry for that, but you never know.

Bracket Buster – Hard to call them a bracket buster when the majority of brackets will have them at least reaching the final 16. They don’t have many wins that would indicate they could make a final four round, but they are a confident team that hasn’t lost a game since the first week of December.

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast (20-8, 11-0)

Florida Gulf Coast won the Atlantic Sun regular season title when they defeated SC Upstate on Saturday. The Eagles last loss came at the end of December against Rhode Island. They haven’t played horrible against top teams, but they are 0-4, and they also have four really bad losses. But again, it’s yet another undefeated conference team that will go into the tournament with confidence.

In with a loss – No, too many blemishes on their resume. They’ll need to win the conference championship.

Bracket Buster – I wrote low last time, and I’ll stick with this, but they won’t be a free pass in the first round as a 14th seed, or so.

Big Sky – Montana (20-5, 13-0)

Montana is a team that has grown on me since I first really noticed them a couple of weeks ago in that blog. They don’t do anything particularly well, except win. They haven’t had a very tough schedule either, but in their toughest game of year (on paper) they only lost by three to Washington. They narrowly avoided disaster this weekend, beating Sacremento State (6-19) in overtime, to run their win streak to 13. There biggest game remaining is against the second team in the conference, Weber State, which is two games behind them with five to play.

In with a loss – Still no.

Bracket Buster – A said no last time, but they are growing on me a bit. This is a team I would like to see more of.

Big South – UNC Ashville (18-9, 11-3)

I’ve referred to this as the conference that nobody wants to win. However, UNCa is proving me wrong, winning seven in a row, including a victory over the team that held first the first time I did this exericse, Radford. Fun Radford fact, they have played in nine one possession games this year, in which they are 4-5, but losers of their last two by a combined three points. Anyways, UNCa leads Withrop by one game with four to play, including a game vs Winthrop on 2/22.

In with a loss – No

Bracket Buster – They would be lucky to get a 15 seed, so it would make things really tough.

Big West – UC Santa Barbara (19-5, 8-2)

UC Santa Barbara continues to hang on in a league that had four teams within a game and a half of the top spot. The Gauchos have five games left, three of those are against those aformentioned teams. If they win this conference they would have earned it. UC Santa Barbara has one of the best players in the country you probably never heard of in Max Heidegger. Heidegger is shooting 40 percent from beyond the arch and averaging 20.8 points a game from the guard position

In with a loss – No

Bracket Buster – Joe Lunardi has them penciled in as a 14th seed, should they win the Big West Title. Damage has been done from there, but it’s fairly rare. I had them as a “low” a couple weeks ago, and maintain that, but their stock is starting to rise. They play in a competitive league, and that helps come tournament time.

Colonial Athletic Association – Charleston (20-6, 11-3)

Charleston is getting closer to locking up this conference with four to go. Northeastern is in second, a game behing, but have already lost twice to the top team. Of the remaining games, William and Mary will be their toughest out, two games behind in conference.

In with a loss – No. They played Rhode Island close in December, losing by only six on the road, but they have some really tough loses. against Drexel and Cal Poly.

Bracket Buster – A CAA title might be good enough for a 14th seed. There will be some bracket’s that see them upsetting a team or two given the right matchups, only because the three seed’s in tournaments will be an interesting mix this year that sees teams that are normally higher than they should be. Those bad losses are hard to look by though when researching for your brackets.

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee – (20-5, 12-1)

This team is gaining a bit of a cult following on the interwebs. I said it was possible they make it to the dance even if they were to lose in the conference finals. I have to retract that statement, even though I don’t want to. Middle Tennessee is led by 6-7 Alabama transfer forward Nick King, who averages 21.4 pts and 8.2 rebounds per game. The entire team plays great defense. There’s still work to do, including a 3/1 game against Western Kentucky, which is also a good basketball team.

In with a loss – I keep contradicting myself. I still think it would be close. Again, I know RPI doesn’t mean much alone, but they sit at 28th. This is one I will be keeping an eye on come conference tournament time.

Bracket Buster – They are a team that would be favored in some games as a 12th seed. I say they have high bracket buster potential in terms of high seeds making a run.

Horizon League – Northern Kentucky (19-7, 12-2)

Only the second conference in this write-up that has seen a chance in first place since our first write-up. Northern Kentucky leads Wright State by one game. They play on Friday night for what virtually amounts to a playoff game to determine who will win the regular season, as Wright State beat Northern Kentucky earlier this season. This conference is still wide open.

In with a loss – The Norse don’t have any truly terrible losses, but they will need to win out to put on their dancing shoes.

Bracket Buster – They’re looking at a 14 seed. I don’t think they have much of a chacne to create any noise if they make it to the dance.

Ivy League – Penn (17-7, 7-1), Harvard (12-11, 7-1)

I was fairly confident in thinking Penn was the cream of the crop in the Ivy league, but Harvard slowed their momentum, giving Penn their first conference loss this weekend. This is still a bid league, but the league conference tournament – a new concept for Ivy league basketball – should be a doozy.

In with a loss – No and No.

Bracket Buster – Well, I liked Penn a little more a couple of weeks ago, but this loss gives me more reservations. Both of these teams are in the play-in/16 seed territory at this point.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference – Rider (19-7, 11-2)

Rider has maintained their lead in the MAAC by going 3-0 since our last big write-up. Still, things remain close, as three teams are two games or less behind them. The team just a half game behind them, Caninsius gets there chance at the top spot this coming Sunday. Rider is a high octane offense that features five players in double figure scoring.

In with a loss – No.

Bracket Buster – Rider, or any team from this conference that makes the dance, is looking at right around a 15th seed. They have a lot of players that can put the ball in the hoop though, which is always a plus come tourny time.

Mid-American – East – Buffalo (18-7, 10-2) and West – Toledo (18-7, 10-2)

Both of these teams have all but locked up their divisions. Buffalo holds a four game lead in the East while Toledo holds a three game lead in the West. Buffalo has actually lost a game since the last time we talked about them, to Northern Illinois, who is in last in the West Division. They appeared to be the best team in Mid-America hoops, but being losers of two of their last four, they have some questions going into the conference tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised if neither of these teams make it through the Mid-American tournament to earn the auto-birth

In with a loss – No and No.

Bracket Buster – A couple weeks ago, the media was high on Buffalo, projecting them as a 12th seed should they win out. Well, I think either Buffalo or Toledo would be lucky to get a 13th seed at this point. I say there is little bracket buster capabilties here as of now.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference – Savannah State (12-13, 9-1)

Savannah State has maybe one more year left of division one eligibility and they are attempting to go out with a bang, and that includes doing things there own way. They have won nine in a row and are 7th in the country in scoring at 85.6 points a game. Here’s the fun part, they shoot 41 three pointers a game. They know they are undersized and underskilled, so they use the three point line to try to be the great equilizer. They are honestly one of my favorite stories of the year and it’s why I’m trying to decide to go out for my birthday tonight, or watch Savannah State fire away tonight against North Carolina A&T, the second place team in the conference, one game behind Savannah State.

In with a loss – No

Bracket Buster – They’ll be a play-in game, which is still pretty remarkable. If they get to play a one seed, they’ll probably lose – by a lot – but I’ll be watching just to see them jack up as many 3’s as they possibly can.

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago (21-5, 11-3)

Two losses to teams with RPI’s in the 150 plus range really crushes there at-large chances, especially being they beat Florida early in the season. Another loss to Bradley four games ago, ensured they will have to win out. They are on pace to do that, holding a two game lead with four to play. The Ramblers are another team that feature double figure scoring by all five of their starters.

In with a loss – I said small chance last time, and that was after the Bradley loss. However, I don’t think they have enough power left in their remaining schedule to really improve in the eyes of the committee.

Bracket Buster – They’re a 12 seed in most predictions, should they win out. I said this last time, and I’ll say it again, in the right situation they could be a dark-horse to make a Sweet-16.

Mountain West – Nevada (21-5, 10-2)

The Mountain West is close to becomming a two team league, with Nevada and Boise State. In fact, Boise State is only half a game behind the 24th ranked Wolf Pack in the Mountain West. As luck would have it, they play this Wednesday in Boise. Boise State’s loss to Boise State, in addition to a few losses against other bubble teams could really spell their doom come Selection Sunday.

In with a loss – Well, they did lose one to UNLV since and I think they are still in. However, they better tread lightly. A loss to Boise and one of the other remaining teams on their schedule would not be favorable, but barring a complete let down, I think they are safe.

Bracket Buster – They’re an interesting team. I still believe they could make the Sweet-16, but I also think they could lose in the first round.

Northeast – Wagner (18-7, 11-3)

Wagner lost to Fairleigh Dickenson (10-15, 7-7) on Sunday in a Northeast update. However, Wagner still holds a two game lead in the conference with four to play. If the loss is a thing to come, there’s five teams in the division with three losses are less, who are ready to jump on the all important one seed come conference tournament time.

In with a loss – No

Bracket Buster – They are in the 16th seed range, which could turn into a play-in game. They would need a miracle.

Ohio Valley – Murray State (20-5, 12-2) and Belmont (20-7, 12-2)

Belmont has a loss since the last write-up to Tennessee State, effectively ending any chance they had at making it as in at-large bid, though there chance was small to begin with. Murray State remains the hottest team in the conference, winning seven in a row. Murray State is led by senior guard Jonathan Stark. Stark leads the team in scoring at 20.9 points a game, and has scored 22 or more in four of the last five. This team goes as he goes.

In with a loss – Neither team has much of a chance with a loss.

Bracket Buster – Either one of these teams is looking like a 14th seed should they make it. I will say my stock is rising on Murray State, and I’ll be excited to see who they play in they make The Dance.

Patriot League – Bucknell (17-9, 11-2)

Bucknell has lost since the last look but still hold a two game lead in the conference. Bucknell plays tonight against Colgate, the number two team in the league two games behind. Bucknell had been hot, winning 10 in a row, but lost in overtime a week ago to Leigh, who is in the middle of the pack in the Patriot League.

In with a loss – No

Bracket Buster – They’re around a 15th seed. They did beat Vermont early in the season, but have a ton a handful of bad to horrible losses. Chances are slim, but not impossible.

Southern – East Tennessee State (22-4, 13-0)

Another internet favorite. A loss at Troy and/or a win at Xavier would have made them really close to an at large team. They are currently in the midst of a 16 game winning streak, the longest in program history. In the surprisingly competitive Southern conference, they hold a 2.5 game lead with five to play. Nearly all their remaining games are against the better half of the conference.

In with a loss – It’s hard – but not impossible – to imagine a 30 win team not making the tournament, which is what they would be if they were to lose only one game the rest of the way. But, on the flip-side, there best is against UNC Greensboro.

Bracket Buster – Absolutely. If they win out they could be looking at a 12 seed that could be favored to win the right first round match-up.

Southland – Nicholls (16-9, 10-2)

Nicholls has taken over the lead of the Southland conference from New Orleans since our last write-up. However, New Orleans, Sam Houston State, SE Louisiana are only half a game back. Stone Cold Stephen F. Austin in only one game back. Whoever comes out of this tightly contested conference will be looking at a 16 seed.

In with a loss – No

Bracket Buster – Not likely.

Southwestern Athletic – Grambling (13-12, 9-3) Arkansas Pine Bluff (9-17, 9-3)

Grambling is banned from postseason play, almost positively assuring us that one team in the big dance will have a sub .500 record. That’s because Grambling is the only team with a record above .500 in the Southwestern Athletic conference. It’s hard to find any redeeming qualities in this conference as a whole, but someone will from here be Dancing come March, something some pretty good teams won’t be doing.

In with a loss – Well, someone will be in with LOTS of losses.

Bracket Buster – It would make Buster Douglas knocking out Tyson look like a run of the mill upset if a SWAC win comes anywhere else than a play-in game.

Summit League – South Dakota State (22-6, 10-1)

South Dakota State and South Dakota (9-2 in conference) both share identical 22-6 records. It’s a shame that only one of them will be dancing given the quality seasons by both squads. The Dakota squads meet on 2/22, which will determine the regular season title.

In with a loss – No. There best win was Buffalo, and that came very early in the season.

Bracket Buster – If they run the table they are looking at a 13th like seed. They score a ton, at over 85 points per game, led by Mike Daum’s 23.8 ppg. and 10 reb. a game. I’d like to see what he can do with a favorable match-up come tournament time.

Sun Belt – Louisiana (21-4, 11-1)

In the last update I said they should keep there phone on just in case they get an at-large bid come Selection Sunday. Well, with a loss to Georgia State they will 100 percent need to win the Sun Belt tournament to get in. They still hold a 1.5 game lead over Georgia State and could still get a decent match-up as a 12 seed, should they win out.

In with a loss – Not anymore.

Bracket Buster – Even with losing, I still think they could score an upset in the Big Dance. There team rankings are pretty eye-popping – 16th in scoring, 25th in rebounds, and 6th in assists. Those numbers tend to bode well in tournament play.

West Coast – St Mary’s (24-3, 13-1) and Gonzaga (23-4, 13-1)

Gonzaga evened the season series at 1-1 with St Mary’s, which also gave them a share of the conference lead. They both have four games remaining, hoping the other slips up along the way. Gonzaga has the toughest schedule down the road, closing at BYU, who usually defends home court (13-2 this season) Either way, both of these teams are dancing.

In with a loss – They’re both safe barring any gigantic late season collapse. This will be a three team league if they both lose in the West Coast tournament. BYU is hanging around as an at-large, but it’s slim.

Bracket Buster – If either of these teams made the Elite Eight I would not be shocked. However, it’s hard to tell how they’ll do against the rest of the field when it seems like their toughest games usually come against each other.

Western Athletic – New Mexico State (22-3, 9-0)

Up three over Utah Valley and Seattle with five to play, this one is about locked up. They aren’t an at-large team due to the loss to San Diego, but they did beat Miami early in the season, but would be too little too late in the eyes of the committee should they suffer a defeat, even in the conference finals.

In with a loss – I wrote “I think so” last time, but upon further examination, I think not. There’s not enough meat on their schedule.

Bracket Buster – I feel like there about the 50th team I have slated as a 12 seed, and you know what they say about 12 seeds. Well, they don’t say it. But, it’s implied. New Mexico State plays lock down defense and with the right match-up could be yet another favored 12 seed in a first round game.