The overall analysis of the author is correct. There is no reason to believe that China will fail to achieve a per-capita GDP of at least 75% of the U.S. It is noteworthy in this context that Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have all reached 75% of U.S. per-capita (PPP) GDP or more (actually a lot more). The key determinant of whether a country reaches "fully-developed" status appears to be the skill level of the population (as measured by PISA, TIMSS, and PIRLS). By these measures China ranks very high.



Some people argue that Shanghai, Macau, Singapore, and Hong Kong are unrepresentative (cities and city states). However, Taiwan has a population of 23.5 million and is not a city state. China's overall level of education is already high and will rise considerably over the next 20-40 years (particularly in the poorer and more rural parts of China).