by Jimmy Hascup

The Red Sox boast possibly the most depth and one of the most star-studded (and most expensive) rotations in all of baseball. Their first three starters have the capability to be number one starters on numerous other teams. While the bottom two spots may be in flux – Dice-K Matsuzaka struggled mightily on the mound and battled constant injuries – the blessing in disguise may be Boston’s former 2008 number one prospect (and baseball’s fourth best), Clay Buchholz. Granted, Tim Wakefield will most likely be relegated to bullpen duties, as he underwent back surgery during the offseason, so there’s a good chance Buchholz has the opportunity to seize the fourth or fifth slot in the rotation.

After last season many fantasy players may be doubting that the youngster has the ability to make an impact. Let’s take a look at those numbers:

7 Wins

92 Innings

4.21 ERA

1.38 WHIP

68 Strikeouts (6.65 K/9)

36 Walks (3.52 BB/9)

.289 BABIP

Prior to the signing of John Lackey, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein was quoted as saying, “Unlike last year, we can sit here and pencil him into our rotation for next year. It’s a good feeling.” Even though this was said before the Angels’ former ace was lured, I’m still a believer that Boston’s prized young hurler will be given every opportunity to win a spot in the rotation.

Though his career major league numbers may indicate some rocky times, there was a stretch last year that certainly bodes well for Buchholz’ future. In 190.2 innings in the majors, he has allowed 198 hits and struck out 162. He also has a career 4.91 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, albeit in very limited action. In the minors, Buchholz threw 443.1 innings and had a 6.5 H/9 and a K/9 of 10.3. He also had a 2.42 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. To say he’s been somewhat of a flop at the major league level is a very big understatement. To make matters worse, when you’ve been touted as a top prospect since the day you could legally drink, expectations are greatly magnified.

There may be no better time for Buchholz to reverse the beliefs of his skeptics than now. It may also be an excellent chance for fantasy leaguers to take the marveled righty at a discount. Currently, he has an ADP of 202, which also rates him as the 47th best pitcher in mock drafts. Starters such as Jorge de la Rosa, Randy Wolf and Scott Baker are all being taken before Buchholz, but there is a serious possibility that the prized-prospect can finally break out in 2010 and consequently provide more value than any of those pitchers.

Last year Buchholz split the year in Triple-A Pawtucket, where he flat-out dominted, with a 2.36 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, and then made his 2009 debut in July but had far less success. In July and August Buchholz had a combined 4.14 ERA. Then in September Buchholz really took-off, with a 2.87 ERA and 26 Ks in 37.2 innings pitched. Those numbers would have sparkled even more had he not allowed seven runs in his final start of September. The biggest improvement for Buchholz was that he walked just nine batters in that stretch. Before that he had 25 walks in 51.1 innings thrown. He even drew a start in the playoffs against the Angels and was quite effective, as he allowed just two runs in five innings.

Even with the great month of September, Buchholz still had a very high 3.52 BB/9 during his 2009 season. That number is actually an improvement from his other stints in the majors, though it’s not near his career minor league rate of 2.5 BB/9. Obviously, the command needs to be mastered at the higher level for Buchholz to be effective. In addition, a BABIP of .289 shows that he really wasn’t unlucky, either, and the FIP of 4.69 (removing defense from the equation) indicates that a bloated ERA could’ve been entirely possible. Buchholz also allowed 13 HR in just 92 innings (1.27 HR/9), which is double his minor league rate which sits at 0.6 HR/9.

Despite a surge in HR/FB rate for Buchholz over the past two times at the major league level, the 25-year-old saw his other batted ball rates finish at very favorable ratios. The ground-ball rate, which has increased for three-straight seasons, ended at 53.8 percent, while the line-drive rate diminished – also a trend over his three major league stints – to 17.6 percent. While his fly-ball rates have decreased steadily, the HR/FB ratio has increased slightly, as well. Still, just based on his batted ball rates against, his expected FIP for last season was 4.09 – a nice improvement from how he finished.

The final point to analyze in Buchholz’ metrics is his strikeout rate. During his time at the major league level, Buchholz has seen his K/9 decrease from 8.74 in 22.2 innings in 2007, to an almost unusable 6.65 K/9 last season. Compared to his minor league rate of over 10, it’s almost unfathomable. Improving those strikeout numbers will go a long way in determining his success in 2010 – and I’d like to show everyone that it’s extremely likely to occur.

In each year Buchholz has seen his velocity – on every pitch – improve. His fastball, which during his 2007 debut was a tick above 90, averaged 93.5 mph last season. His slider velocity also improved from 2008, over four miles per hour, to 85.8 mph, which has led to its increased usage. The curve-ball and change-up have also seen an uptick in speed, as well. The only pitch, according the metrics at Fangraphs, that was below average last year, was his change-up.

While the rotation in Boston is crowded, I still firmly believe Buchholz will get his chance – and he will do very well with it. Across the board, I’d expect Buchholz to become a better pitcher. His K numbers should improve and he should gain a better mastery of his command. In the end, I’d expect Buchholz to have an ERA just below 4 this season, with his strikeout per nine numbers around eight.

What do you guys think of Buchholz for next season? Is he just an excellent minor league pitcher and nothing more? Or will he show is heralded promise in 2010?

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