Do a LexisNexis search, and you’ll find that “Trump” and some variant of “impeach” have already appeared in 37 newspaper headlines. (Duplicates are at play, yes, but let’s not get in the way of a striking statistic.) Documentarian Michael Moore has vowed to look for the first impeachment opportunity and do what he can to help spur it along. Law professor Christopher Lewis Peterson of the University of Utah has written a paper arguing that Donald Trump can technically be impeached immediately, provided that Trump University is judged to be as fraudulent as it looks. Allan Lichtman, the American University professor who predicted Trump’s win, also predicted Trump would be impeached. Clearly, no one’s wasting time on this. So what are we to make of it?

To start with, you’ll get no predictions here, at least for a week or two. After Trump’s disastrous first debate, I concluded Trump was toast and stuck to that assessment. I could ignore that mistake and link only to past articles that make me look prescient, but I haven’t become that Trumpian yet. So I’m taking a break from guessing. A few weeks of respite should allow me to return to the business of forecasting—still incorrectly, of course, but with more energy.

Also, as everyone surely knows, the impeachment talk for this presidency is rather early. We’re not even done tallying the votes, and the inauguration is more than two months away. At least allow the man a few days in the Oval Office and put off plans for a dethroning until week two.

Until then, though, sure, we can consider the following two questions: 1) What could make impeachment happen? 2) What would it accomplish?

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Those who want to oust Trump fast will have a lot of work to do. Only two presidents in history have suffered such disgrace, Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton, and neither was convicted. (Richard Nixon dodged by resigning.) Johnson’s impeachment, in 1868, took place several years into his term, and Clinton’s didn’t happen until his second term. Since Trump might be exhausted after one round in the White House, especially as the oldest president ever to take office, impeachment, itself, might take longer than his term.

But let’s assume expedited processing is an option. Legally, impeachment, which is like an indictment, requires serious wrongdoing in order to be invoked—“Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors,” according to the Constitution. Peterson, the University of Utah law professor, argues that fraud and racketeering fit the bill, and both are at play with Trump University. But the decision is mostly political. That means relatively trivial offenses (perjury regarding extramarital relations, as with Clinton) can get blown up, while serious ones (use of torture in detention, as with George W. Bush) can get ignored. The political will to unseat a president must be overwhelming for things to go anywhere, and the fiasco of Clinton’s impeachment trial, which saw Republicans lose seats in Congress, lessened everyone’s appetite for more of the same.