El Niño forecast to ease drought

Federal forecasters said Thursday, Nov. 19, that the El Nino weather pattern will likely provide some relief to California's four-year drought this winter. Federal forecasters said Thursday, Nov. 19, that the El Nino weather pattern will likely provide some relief to California's four-year drought this winter. Photo: Alexander, Kurtis L Photo: Alexander, Kurtis L Image 1 of / 117 Caption Close El Niño forecast to ease drought 1 / 117 Back to Gallery

After four years of unrelenting drought, nearly all of California is likely to see at least some relief this winter, federal climate experts said Thursday, offering a first real message of hope for the bone-dry state.

Most of the potential drought-breaking storms won’t come until early next year, the scientists said. But enough rain and snow have fallen in recent weeks that, combined with growing optimism about El Niño, ski resorts have opened early in Tahoe and some Northern California communities have begun to ease their rigid water restrictions.

Another bout of wet weather is due to arrive just before Thanksgiving, possibly even delivering snow to Bay Area hills, though the system is forecast to be short-lived.

In Thursday’s long-term weather outlook, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center boosted the odds — again — of above-average precipitation gracing California between January and March. The El Niño pattern behind the forecast is expected to drive enough moisture toward the West Coast that water shortages and crop losses will begin to recede from the Mexico border almost all the way to Oregon.

“We are favoring some improvement, not removal, but some improvement,” said Jon Gottschalck, an operations chief at the Climate Prediction Center who has been tracking the drought.

Gottschalck, along with the state’s top water managers, has cautioned Californians to remain vigilant about conservation. Most of the state, they say, will remain in some stage of drought even if the rainy season lives up to expectations.

Severe dry spell

But those expectations are stark. Not since the winter of 2010-11 has California seen an average amount of precipitation during its wet season. The lull has thrust the state into what climate experts call an “exceptional drought,” the most severe category.

This Climate Prediction Center’s outlook projects less critical drought classifications for all but the northeast corner of the state by the end of February. A small patch of the state, along the Arizona border, is expected to see drought conditions subside entirely.

Southern California as far north as Santa Maria (Santa Barbara County) now stands a 60 percent chance of seeing rains in January, February and March that are significantly above the historical average — meaning they would rank in the top one-third for precipitation.

San Francisco’s odds of seeing such robust rainfall in the first three months of 2016 rose to 50 percent, while most of the Northern Sierra, including Tahoe, posted a 40 percent chance.

El Niños, seasonal patterns marked by warm equatorial water in the Pacific that tend to push moisture into the atmosphere and influence worldwide weather, have long been associated with rain in the southern part of the state. Only strong El Niños, though, have correlated with more precipitation in the north.

Forecasters identify the current El Niño as a strong one. This week, ocean temperatures on either side of the equator were at record levels — 5.4 degrees above normal at a key measurement spot, a sign of unusual intensity.

“We’re calling this a top-three event,” Gottschalck said. “It’s one of the strongest on the historical record.”

The healthy El Niño is affecting temperatures well beyond the Pacific. The federal government confirmed Thursday that last month ranked as the planet’s warmest October since record-keeping began in 1880, setting up 2015 to take the title as the hottest year on record.

While recent storms that have dampened the Bay Area and dumped several feet of snow on the Sierra crest are not driven by the El Niño, they’ve provided a welcome start to the rainy season and fueled optimism about better things to come.

The city of Pleasanton, one of the hardest hit by drought, suspended penalties accompanying its water restrictions this week, deeming that residents had conserved enough with the potentially wet winter ahead. Santa Cruz, which also had some of the state’s toughest drought rules, similarly eased regulations at the start of the month.

Ski resorts open

Meanwhile, at least a half dozen ski resorts have opened in the Sierra with more expected to turn on the lifts by Thanksgiving. Sugar Bowl west of Truckee opens Saturday.

On Tuesday, another cold front is expected to move across Northern California, bringing snow to the Sierra as low as 3,000 feet and maybe even a dusting in the Bay Area, according to the National Weather Service.

“We could see a few flurries on the higher peaks around here, like Mount Diablo, Mount Hamilton, maybe Mount Tamalpais,” said forecaster Steve Anderson. “We’ll just have to wait and see.”

Anderson is already advising Thanksgiving travelers to prepare for wet and possibly snowy conditions.