Nashville early voting surpasses 59,000 for transit referendum: 5 takeaways on high turnout, trends

Early voting in Nashville's local primary election and historic transit referendum ended Thursday with 59,289 people casting votes over the past two weeks — higher turnout than some expected but matching what election officials saw coming.

It puts total voter turnout on track to perhaps reach 100,000, Davidson County Elections Administrator Jeff Roberts said, making it the city's highest referendum vote since Nashville approved an NFL stadium in 1996. The election is Tuesday.

Thursday saw 11,684 voters, the most of any day of early voting.

"The turnout is materializing close to what we had anticipated," Roberts said, adding that it's unclear whether early voting will represent about half the overall vote, or as much as 60 percent, because of the enthusiasm around the transit issue.

The 2014 May local primary election — which includes judge and Davidson County clerk races — drew only 38,804 voters overall. But Nashville's contentious transit vote has attracted many Nashvillians who are not habitual voters.

Nashville at a crossroads

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The referendum, backed by Mayor David Briley, would raise four taxes, including the sales tax, to bankroll a $5.4 billion transit plan that includes light rail, rapid transit and upgrades to the city's bus system.

Here's what we can say based on early voting numbers and trends.

Turnout between English-only, NFL Yes

The overall turnout is likely to fall somewhere between Nashville's two most recent high-profile referendums.

In May 1996, 125,913 Nashvillians voted in the successful "NFL Yes" referendum to build a football stadium to lure the then-Houston Oilers to Nashville.

In January 2009, 73,912 people voted in the English-only referendum, with voters defeating a proposal to make English the official language of Metro government.

The transit vote figures to split the difference.

The turnout is most comparable to a Nashville mayor's race. In August 2015, 104,757 people voted in the first round of Nashville's mayoral election.

Of course, the turnout isn't close to levels of a presidential election. In Nashville, 252,926 people — 62 percent of registered voters — voted for the presidential election in November 2016.

► Earlier: How many Nashvillians will vote in transit referendum?

Debatable who high turnout helps

Who does the high turnout help?

In an unprecedented election like this, no one really knows, but there are two competing theories.

Some believe Nashville's transit boosters benefit from high turnout, arguing that the more people vote, the more the electorate will reflect the political leanings of Davidson County as a whole. Davidson County leans Democrat over Republican by generally 60 percent to 40 percent. The transit plan is more popular among Democrats.

Nashville has a history of backing progressive causes, and this camp believes the transit vote, fueled by higher turnout, would fall in that tradition.

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But there's a counter view. The pro-transit side deliberately singled out the May 1 election for the transit referendum because it is overwhelmingly the smallest turnout of three elections set for this year.

State primaries for governor and U.S. Senate are in August before the general election in November.

The thinking: Transit supporters hoped to identify their backers early on and make sure they vote — control the electorate. But now the turnout has expanded beyond what most expected.

What's often the ingredient for voter enthusiasm? Anger. And, in this case, perhaps it's people who are mad about the referendum who have spiked the turnout.

Republicans are coming out to vote

Republicans appear to be voting in large numbers, and that's likely good news for transit foes.

Nashville voters can choose one of three ballots when they go to the polls: a Democratic ballot with a the transit referendum; a Republican ballot with the transit referendum; or only the transit referendum.

Raising many eyebrows: Around 24 percent of all voters have taken the Republican/transit ballot, while another 13 percent have taken the transit referendum-only ballot.

This is noteworthy because there are no Republican candidates running for any local office in Davidson County — but people are choosing it anyway.

Historically, Republicans in Democratic-leaning Nashville who vote in the May primary election cross over to the Democratic primary so they can have a say in races for judge, sheriff, register of deeds or other local races. For example, only 6 percent of voters voted in the Republican primary in May 2014.

This year, there are surely Republicans also crossing over Democratic primary. But on top of that, there are tens of thousands of Republicans who are coming in to vote on transit — and when asked which ballot — say Republican. There's another group that's motivated only by transit and don't give any partisan preference.

Polling has shown the majority of Republican voters oppose the referendum — but by how much could help decide the outcome.

Darden Copeland of Calvert Street Group, a consultant for the Nashville for Transit Coalition, pointed to the referendum's support from the business community and former Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. He said they believe the pro-side has support from at least 30 percent to 35 percent of Republicans — "likely higher," he said.

Hermitage, Green Hills, Edmondson Pike highest voting sites

The three highest early voting locations have been the Green Hills Library, the Hermitage Library, and the Edmondson Pike Library in South Nashville.

The gut reaction here might be to say that voting has been higher in suburban parts of the county that often vote Republican. However, these same early voting sites are typically the highest in most Metro elections.

Green Hills, the highest early voting site, is a swing district in the transit referendum, drawing from progressive-leaning neighborhoods like Hillsboro-Belmont and 12South in addition to Republican strongholds like Forest Hills and Oak Hill.

The three lowest voting sites were the Southeast Library, the Goodlettsville Community Center and Caza Azafran Community Center on Nolensville Pike.

Judge, clerk races dominated by transit vote

If you voted early, you were probably greeted by people holding signs for candidates for judge, register of deeds or Juvenile Court clerk, passing out palm cards and shouting out names of the person they support.

Or maybe you didn't notice because you were so set on the transit vote.

Talk to the candidates running for local office, and — if they're honest — they'll tell you they're so overshadowed by the transit vote that they don't know what to expect.

► The other races: Breaking down the races in the May 1 Nashville election

► More: Nashville Judge Nick Leonardo said he volunteered for the YWCA. The nonprofit says he didn't.

► More: Steven Murff, candidate for Criminal Court clerk, was fired from courts office in 2016

An election that typically draws voters who pay the closest attention to city government has more than doubled in size. Do the bulk of voters have any idea who these candidates are?

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.