In past few weeks Manchester was a point of discussion for the potential home of professional soccer in the state. The USL D3 expansion team visited and had meetings with potential club investors in the Queen City on November 9th, and had positive things to say after their visit. With all the positivity surrounding a future professional soccer club coming to Manchester I wanted to analyze the clubs potential success.

The rise of teams like FC Cincinnati, Harrisburg City Islanders, and North Carolina FC, which are in markets that were traditionally viewed as not having a large potential, shows that even in smaller markets professional soccer can grow. In an article for Howler Magazine, Peter Wilt explored the idea that America’s next soccer city could be in a midsize to small market like Manchester. Wilt listed out ten criteria for evaluating potential markets, and this is the criteria we will use for our analysis along with the expansion requirements for USL D3.

1.Population

The first of Wilt’s criteria is population. Manchester is most populated city in New Hampshire with 110,139 people living in its city limits. Manchester’s population is just under the USL D3’s expansion minimum population requirement of 150,000. This 40,000 person difference is something that the city can overcome because supporters from cities and towns around Manchester like Nashua and Concord will add to the overall size of the market making it closer to 215,000. Manchester, Nashua, and Concord have all shown a growth in population over the past few years, so it can be estimated that the market size will continue to grow as more people move to the state.

This potential market size will directly affect the amount of revenue that the club will make through ticket, suite, sponsorship, merchandise, and potential broadcast sales. With a market size which is almost a quarter of the state’s 1.3 million population the cub should be able to continue to grow and reach more supporters in all corners of the state. Manchester should be seen by USL D3 as the a market with major potential to grow, and grow a reach outside of the metropolitan market the club will initially enter.

2. Existing Sports Teams

Second is existing sports teams. Wilt noted that a soccer team going into a market that already has existing major league sports team will have an uphill battle for the supports hearts, but most importantly their wallets. In markets like San Fransisco a soccer team will have a difficult time gathering support due to the likes of the San Fransisco Giants, and Oakland Athletics (MLB), San Fransisco 49ers and Oakland Raiders (NFL), and the Golden State Warriors (NBA). But in other markets like Reno where there is only two minor league teams, Reno 1868 FC was able to find major success both on the pitch, and in the stands where they set attendance records for a sports team in Reno.

Manchester currently has two semi-professional sports teams. The Manchester Monarchs (ECHL Hockey), and The New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Double A Baseball). These two teams average around 3,500 to 4,700 in attendance respectively. If a professional soccer team comes to Manchester they will have to compete with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats for attendance due to the current US Soccer calendar. Well this new club is trying to gain respect and support of Manchester fans, the fisher cats will continue to host games for fans that have their respect.

This should not mean the end of hope for a team in Manchester, it should mean an opportunity to grow. We should again look at Reno as a prime example of how minor league baseball, and a professional soccer team can both find major success in the same market. With both teams sharing the same stadium, they were able to push-off of each teams success to draw more fans to the other teams games. This is an example of how a professional soccer team in New Hampshire could find major success well coexisting with other sports teams in the market.

3. Venue

A teams venue can make or break the a new teams success. Venues outside of a metropolitan area, and away from public transport will have a lower attendance to teams who have the appropriate location close to their supporters. A team in Manchester will have to consider their potential venues size, location, accessibility, amenities, configuration, advertising opportunities, and existing tenants if any when they determine where they will call home.

Two venues in Manchester standout as potential homes for this new Manchester team. The downtown venue locations for this new club are Northeast Delta Dental Stadium, or Gill Stadium. We will look at each element of a successful venue to see how each can be the potential home for a soccer club.

Northeast Delta Dental Stadium is a baseball stadium located on the banks of the Merrimack River that has a maximum capacity of 6,500, which is above the 3,500 D3 seat requirement. As seen above it is located close the heart of downtown, where there is a lot of restaurants, and shops that fans can go to before kick off. Due to its location fans will have access to several parking garages, public transport, and the ability to march to the match from a supporter bar. Northeast Delta Dental Stadium has two public, paved parking lots, 32 luxury suites, and two 100-person party decks, which will allow the club to host corporate clients, and potential sponsors. Northeast will be able to configure the required 110 yard x 70 yard pitch, but will have to lay sod down to cover the infield to allow for reasonable sight lines for fans. Laying sod also increases the risk of injury to players, which is something that the team will need to highly consider. Most of the advertising rights have already been sold, and will end up as a lost revenue for this new soccer team. This is due in part to their potential roommates, The New Hampshire Fisher Cats, who will be hosting baseball games in the stadium throughout the summer months.

Gill Stadium, which is located a mile and a half down the road from Northeast Delta Dental Stadium, is the teams other option close to downtown Manchester. Gill Stadium is a municipal stadium located close to downtown that is used for a wide range of sport teams in the city. For a potential Manchester Soccer team Gill Stadium acts as almost a blank canvas where the team can grow with the stadium. Gill Stadium currently has a capacity of 3,000, which is 500 under the D3 requirement. With investment the team has the ability to turn this ground into a soccer specific stadium and increasing the capacity over 3,500 minimum requirement. Gill stadium will have the same advantages as Northeast Delta Dental due to its location close to downtown, and access to public transportation. Gill stadium has paved parking for 300 cars as well as handicap accessibility, but is lacking luxury suites an other corporate amenities. Although the stands have a slight bow to increase viewing for baseball the configuration, and slight lines are better suited for soccer then a baseball specific stadium. Because Gill Stadium has no current tenants, all of the potential advertising opportunities will help grow the club in its downtown location.

Both venues have their pro’s and con’s, but will make excellent homes for a soccer team in Manchester.

4. Homegrown Population

Creating a passionate fan base for any sports team is extremely difficult. In order to create this passionate support the club will need to connect with its new fan base on an emotional level. This emotional connection between club and community will start the process of creating a passionate support base that will be passed down from generation to generation.

In order to create a lasting emotional relationship with supporters in the community, this Manchester club should work with the cities homegrown population. The homegrown population of a city is the portion that is born, and still lives and works in the same state. Manchester’s homegrown population is roughly 58,213, 53% of the city’s population. By showing these fans that this team represents the community values they will buy into this team quicker. 9% of this homegrown population is under the age of 25, where soccer is growing in popularity among this age group. Getting that 9% of Manchester’s homegrown population will be key to generating support for the club in the city.

5. New American Population

When new clubs form they can benefit from an immigrant population that already has a love of the game. We see strong passion for soccer among immigrants from Mexico and other Latino countries, who bring this passion and love of the sport and their local team with them when they move to States. 8.7% of Manchester’s population identify themselves as Latinos, and although they may already have a team they support this new Manchester club could potentially become their second favorite team. Having a team to support in their local community will allow them to connect with others in the community that share the same passion. Having this occur will help community development, as well as helping those new to the city to find something to connect to. There are several communities in the city that already have an appreciation for soccer, and will help grow a team in the Queen city.

6. Young Adult Participation

It has been noted that millennials have helped foster the growth of soccer in this country. With millienials starting to have large buying power, and a drive to become part of the active support movement. Young adults have helped foster amazing atmospheres in stadiums across the American Soccer pyramid, and is something that can be brought to Manchester. Young Adults are defined as 18-34 year olds, and they make up 26.7% of Manchester’s total population. This demographic is something that this club will want to focus on and foster them into supporters. With young adults creating an atmosphere in the stands it could drive other potential fans to come to matches.

7. Youth Soccer Participation

It’s simple the more people who play soccer in a local community, the more likely they are to watch the sport. With New Hampshire being a hot bed for US soccer development academies the number of players that are becoming fans are increasing. Seacoast United, GPS New Hampshire, Granite State FC, and Capital Soccer Club are just a few of the many youth soccer clubs that are fostering the growth of the game in the state. When these children start to watch games they want to see their favorite team live, and with a professional team in New Hampshire they will be able to see quality soccer live and in their own state. Families usually buy the most tickets, and the most of them buy the expensive tickets to matches. So by partnering with the previously mentioned youth clubs as well as the New Hampshire Soccer association will help get people into the stands.

8. Corporate Support

Corporate support through sponsorships, and suite sales are a large part to any professional sports team in the United States. This potential Manchester team will be no different. New Hampshire is growing a rapid rate, and major companies like Timberland and Lonza are moving their facilities to locations in New Hampshire. This along with having two companies from Forbes 1000 list will be a huge positive for this Manchester club to bring in revenue from these companies.

9. Climate

As New Englanders we know that mild springs move into comfortable summers, with cool falls and freezing winters right around the bend. Soccer is usually played from mid spring to late fall, which matches with the US soccer playing schedule. With the current USL Pro schedule we can imagine D3 will run along the same time. With games starting in late March, early April this Manchester team will probably want more away games early in the season due to the snowy, cold climate. Same thing will happen in later months in the fall towards the end of the season. The summer months will be prime for home games in Manchester, and will allow for a boost in ticket sales.

10. Local Pro and Amateur Soccer History

New Hampshire has a growing amateur soccer scene, and Manchester has a handful of teams that play in the New Hampshire Soccer Conference. Amateur soccer is still growing in the city and can potentially create a large impact when the community is engaged with this new club.

There was a previous attempt to bring semi-pro soccer to the city in the early 2000’s. The New Hampshire Mountaineers played in the 2010 NPSL season before folding in 2011. They played at SNHU, and were successful in their sole season in the NPSL finishing 3rd in a competitive Atlantic division. This success could potentially help foster memories of those who attended Mountaineers games, and mold them into a supporter of this new Manchester club.

After reviewing and researching these elements that Peter Wilt laid out we can see that Manchester is a great potential market for a professional soccer team. With the cities demographics, and past soccer history would make Manchester an idea location for USL D3’s inaugural season. Manchester would not just represent the community of Manchester, but the diverse community of the entire state. USL D3 has found a market that will have great potential to grow, and is determined for success. Manchester is waiting for professional soccer, and USL D3 is the answer.

Researching for this article was a very interesting. The ten criteria that were evaluated thought this article came from Peter Wilt’s Howler Article. Statistical information came from Governing.com, Data USA, Fortune Magazine. the City of Manchester, US Census, New Hampshire Fisher Cats, and USL D3.