England’s season is now finished completely after a peaceful — and utterly useless — friendly against Ireland, as well as a frighteningly exciting affair against a frisky Slovenia side. It seems an appropriate time to take stock of how the squad is evolving one year away from Euro 2016. The tournament held in France will be the measuring stick for Hodgson for which no excuses will be made to cover inadequacy. He had a free shot at Euro 2012 and the World Cup was a disappointment but once you peeled back the initial layers of outrage at a group stage exit, there were little bits of hope to excavate from the ruins if you were willing to look hard enough. However even some of these have been marred by recent events (looking at you, Raheem).

It’s hard to see the FA sticking with the former West Brom boss if the side fails to show improvement. There has to be something there to take from the tournament, be it a quarter-final at the very least, because the safety net is well and truly gone. So Hodgson is facing the most pressure he ever has to shape his squad to an optimum level.

Unfortunately for him, it’s coincided with the most difficult period of time during Hodgson’s reign, in terms of injuries and simple lack of talent. Realistically England do not have the talent of sides who are expecting to win the tournament — Germany, Spain, maybe Belgium — but Hodgson has viable options to make a deep run in the tournament.

This time we look further up the field and also have the benefit of knowing how dire the England U21s were. Whoop de fucking do.

Central Midfielders

Michael Carrick is back! Who knew great positional sense and a solid passing range could look so sexy? Perhaps the stout midfielder’s best showing was in the Slovenia game where he didn’t actually play, kind of like how Malky Mackay’s reputation grew right after he was sacked by Cardiff. We saw the benefits of a liberated Jack Wilshere in that qualifier that ended up a legitimately exciting match. Granted, Wilshere won’t score two screamers on every showing but his optimal position is in a 3 man midfield with someone to sit back a little, which Carrick is comfortably the best at for England. Wilshere’s stint as a holding midfielder was interesting, but never appeared sustainable.

Jordan Henderson started the season in terrific form, linking together play in the same unsung manner that he did the season previous. He tailed off, but his versatility to play in the diamond or the 4-3-3 makes him an asset for Hodgson. Although his inability to carry the ball forward himself accentuates England’s main midfield issue. Fabian Delph and James Milner bring a very beige tone to the side, perhaps splashes of yellow when Delph makes a predictably rash tackle. Somehow Milner, after being unappreciated for a couple of years, is suddenly seen as the indispensable glue to a quality side and I’m not quite sure when that transition happened. But England’s midfield depth really isn’t all that, so Roy will have to hope the trio of Henderson, Carrick and Wilshere can stay healthy. Mark Noble still won’t get in and everyone outside of Upton Park frequenters isn’t really all that bothered about it.

The two formations Hodgson has shown with England – the diamond and 4-3-3 – would both work with a Henderson-Carrick-Wilshere lineup, and would be my personal choice. But Hodgson could get a little kooky and put Oxlade-Chamberlain there to jumpstart the midfield and help carry the ball upfield (a long standing issue with England, seemingly terminal). Lallana has slotted in there a few times, but against challenging opponents I can’t see Hodgson going liberal enough with his lineups to select either. Barkley had a poor season, Roberto Martinez even refuses to play him further back in midfield so he won’t feature there for England. If Ox and Lallana are left-field choices for midfield, then Barkley is a communist choice he’s that far left. Henderson-Carrick-Wilshere seems to be the inevitable group and it’s a decent one at that, but it features the huge caveat of the fitness of Wilshere, and Carrick to some extent.

Wingers

When evaluating England’s wingers, we’ll assume they’re being deployed in a 4-3-3 given that it’s the only formation Hodgson has used consistently that features them. It’s been an interestingly changeable aspect of Hodgson’s England. Routinely he would provoke pained screams from living rooms around the country as Milner was plopped in there time and again to exacerbate England’s punchless attack. But then Hodgson boldly started Oxlade-Chamberlain against France and it worked well. Who knows what’s next? All we know is he’s called the Stig it won’t be Downing, because the West Ham curse is real.

Let’s start with Raheem Sterling, who’s had a quiet summer. Maybe. Hodgson will no doubt disapprove of Sterling’s antics but has consistently found a place for him over the past year. The next step is to make sure he can fit around Rooney. Everyone knows how well he functioned in the centre for England but he also has acquitted himself well in a front three with Rooney as the striker and Welbeck (worth considering that every manager loves playing ‘dat guy’ out wide) on the opposing flank. One issue Sterling seemed to have is his overdependence on picking the ball up from midfield and trying to generate attacks by going past his man. Without Suarez, Sterling found himself with ample amounts of the ball during games and the trade-off was that he lost his scything off-ball movement. (The same thing happened with Sturridge, whose regression might not be all down to injuries). One of Brendan Rodgers main priorities should be to get Sterling moving off the ball again, if either are still at the club in the upcoming season. Looking past Sterling though, and there’s many question marks. I wrote a fair bit on the Ox here. In short, he’s still struggling to break into Arsenal’s side and risks stagnating. Three pleasant counter-points: he’s still young, always looks really bright for England and just has had really shit luck so far.

Andros Townsend. Andros, Andros, Andros. I’ll say about Townsend what I’ll say about Welbeck: People need to get over themselves and recognise what he brings, which is pace and reliable ferrying of the ball up the right wing. Like Welbeck, he seemingly performs better for England than his club. Sure, he’ll cut inside three times too many a game and have two shots blocked by a fullback in close proximity. Yes, Townsend is predictable and blatant in how he plays, but when England are into the second half of a crucial game in the Euros it’s funny what you might find yourself wishing for. There’s only so much to expect from bench contributions and I’d take Townsend in a heartbeat. He’s ballsy and in tournament football that’s more useful than you’d think. Am I wrong to call him England’s ideal impact bench player? Am I wrong to think Walcott could hold that position if he can’t force himself into the XI? Probably, on both counts.

James Milner will be in and around the squad forever. There’s a bunch of blah players that never look like making the leap again such as Wayne Routledge, Aaron Lennon, Adam Johnson. I’m not quite buying the Ashley Young renaissance after being force-fed a couple years of his past England performances, but a midseason call-up wouldn’t surprise anyone. This leaves Theo Walcott as the last meaningful discussion here. But Walcott’s situation going into next season is so, so intriguing. It’s coming up to a decade since his surprise call-up from Sven. After many fits and starts (and Fabio Capello being a prat and a cruel pre-World Cup injury) Walcott could be on his last chance to get into the England side. He’s supposedly in his prime yet will have to fight past several factors:

A couple of players now more established than him in the pecking order in Sterling and Kane. Not a mountain to climb but there’s not a Walcott sized hole in the team. Hodgson hasn’t been lamenting his absence in every press conference. There’s some serious earning to be done here.

Can Walcott get into Arsenal’s side again? There’s four positions that he can fill for Wenger, and although it’s cliché to say Arsenal look good for next year…Arsenal do look pretty good for next year. Santi Cazorla is kicking into vintage mode, Sanchez is half-dead right now but once Wenger’s witch doctor fully resurrects him he’s a top 5 player in the league. We all kind of know the deal with Ozil. Walcott can’t just get by on 20 minute bench cameos and midweek starts if he’s going to get back onto the international stage. You’re looking at a serious run of form or a significant injury to dislodge that front 3 permanently. Walcott must look to hit the ground running and capitalize on Sanchez’ three-week rest at the start of the season. Alternatively his best chance may come at the expense of Olivier Giroud, which leads us onto…

What is Walcott’s true position? Around the time of Walcott’s long-forgotten contract dispute in the winter of 2012/13, there were reports that he wanted to play through the centre. Wenger has shown that he feels differently. It only makes it harder to reintegrate Walcott with England if he’s flip-flopping between the two positions with little success. It doesn’t really make him more versatile either given that Rooney is back to being a full-time forward again.

– Finally, Walcott just isn’t an easy player to build with. Not enough people realise how idiosyncratic Walcott is now he’s older. I, with my admittedly short memory, can’t remember many like him; an inconsistent instinct finisher who features predominantly on the right but can’t cross. Outside of counter-attacking situations he can be fairly average on the ball and fades drastically in many games. Multiple factors are going to have to break perfectly for a successful Walcott return with England.

So there you have it. For what it’s worth I think Walcott does make it back into the squad, if not the XI. My prediction is England’s attack is comprised of Rooney, Sterling, Welbeck and Kane, in some variation with one left out. There isn’t a winger who looks inviting enough to sacrifice one of that quartet, at least not for Hodgson.

Attacking Midfielders

A brief discussion here and not a particularly happy one. England have struggled to summon No. 10s from the academies for whatever reason. There’s only two worth mentioning from the Premier League: Adam Lallana and Ross Barkley. If you’re willing to squint a little bit there’s almost a parallel to be drawn between the pair. Both entered the season injured. Both struggled to find the form of last season. Both…play in Liverpool. Yeah, almost a parallel.

Lallana was partially drowned by Liverpool’s plethora of attacking talent and bright moments were sparse throughout the season. Barkley’s hype still exceeds his performance and his appearances often carry the illusion of more value than they really hold. Barkley carries the ball forward albeit in a very head-down-steam-train sort of way. His vision lacks for long stretches of games and it was noted by many that his goalscoring vanished this season.

In the context of England it’s an equally gloomy picture. Barkley is surprisingly relied upon by Hodgson off the bench (he was his first sub against Italy in Manaus) but his versatility goes as far as one position. As mentioned before, even Roberto Martinez flinches when he thinks about putting Barkley deep in midfield. Lallana has played there for Hodgson but only against much inferior opposition and it seems unlikely that he’d get in over Henderson or others. Hodgson has shown a preference for athleticism in midfield with Henderson and Delph which Lallana cannot provide. Their contributions for England in the next year will likely be off the bench.

An iffy campaign of halted progress for England’s true attacking midfielders.

Strikers

Just putting it out there now, the discussion around Rooney is too difficult to simply sum up here. It’s like trying to make a 2 minute explanation on finding peace in the Middle East. The whole debate is also complicated further by the short piece of fabric wrapped around his left arm when he represents England. The whole ‘Rooney in behind the strikers’ phase didn’t work out and he’s gone back to his roots up front. I’ll just say if he’s fit he’ll be in there and that’s that.

Hands up if you thought last year “I’d definitely think about starting Kane for England in the Euros.” would be a sentence you could say not punishable by death? Tottenham’s very own Harry Kane was the jewel of Tottenham’s typical season, a distraction from the fact they had identical issues to the Spurs side of the previous year with their backline offering a pleasant buttery resistance and the midfield a perplexing jumble of indecision.

A sincere question here about Kane – If he was black, would the whole storyline about how he was ‘England’s Harry Kane’ and ‘One of Tottenham’s own’ be so played upon? I don’t remember Welbeck receiving the same narrative when he was scoring, irregularly, for Manchester United. Sturridge’s performances during Liverpool’s title challenge weren’t accompanied by a furor of surprise that someone English was scoring. You can argue that Charlie Austin didn’t receive the same treatment with a similar goal tally, superior to Welbeck’s best season, which suggests the narrative really was based on Kane’s rise from Tottenham’s academy. But I don’t know, it just seemed slightly racially tinged to me.

Anyway, back to tangible football things. From about March onwards, Kane’s season stopped mattering. This might sound odd for an in-form striker still sort of competing for the Champions League. But from that point it became all about what Kane would do the following season. The second North London derby epitomised what his season had been all about: a bumbling, stumbling goal off a corner and then a glorious looping header into the far corner. Inexplicable fortune and then undeniable talent. 2015/16 decides whether Harry Kane will be the striker none of us predicted he could be or the subject of a brilliant Pub Quiz question in 20 years.

The issue England may face trying to shoehorn what attacking talent they have is the similarities many have in their game. Rooney has acted independent of whatever role he’s supposedly playing for years. Kane looks like a target man but is at his best dropping deep and sprinting at a bemused defence. Sterling will hang back for the ball more than he really should. Not everyone can be the one to create.

Which leads us onto Danny Welbeck. Part of Welbeck’s success with England comes down to how he actually will play like a striker. Unconventional, I know. If Welbeck continues his scoring then there is no reason why he shouldn’t start for England. Imagine Kane and Rooney as a duo with Sterling in behind. The opposition back four would have nothing to be really challenged by given the tendencies of that trio to hang back. England needs Welbeck for his pace to stretch the defence and by the looks of Arsenal’s squad Welbeck needs England to have a chance of playing. Side note: I’m tempted to make #whynotwelbeck a thing.

This has all got a bit wordy so let’s whip through a few. Austin will be in the Premier League but I doubt he scores at the same rate and his England prospects are slim. He would have to be in that same 20-25 goal range to get a sniff of the squad, mainly because…well would you pick Austin to play with Rooney? Ings with his movement and mobility seems an appropriate match with Liverpool’s attack. the problem here is envisioning Rodgers giving him 30 or so starts. You see, Ings while signing for Liverpool also signed up on the Rodgers Tactical Express™ so at various points of the season Firmino will inevitably be played as the main striker and Ings had probably prepare to play some wingback. Sturridge can hardly be evaluated after his stop-start season really.

Berahino is still yet to make his debut for England, despite his call-up in November 2014. West Brom is where he should and probably will ply his trade for the next 12 months and he will look to kick on without the burden of expectation that accumulates on players at ‘big clubs’. I personally still credit Berahino for Leicester miraculous escape by the way. His decision to shoot instead of playing in a wide open Chris Gardner in the second half allowed Jamie Vardy to steal a win for Leicester. Nice one Saido.

Speaking of Vardy, his call-up legitimately made me laugh when I first heard about it and his tenacious 15 minute performance vs Ireland will live long in the memory of Vardy’s family I’m sure. If Callum Wilson starts every game for Bournemouth he’s in with a chance of a call-up in the Autumn or Spring, but any true dark horses for the Euro squad will only reveal themselves once the season is in full swing.

That’s pretty much it. Just to wrap up the whole thing, here’s a sort of cross between my preferred line-up and what I think Hodgson will really do:

Chances are I’ll pull this post up in 7 months time and laugh at one of the predictions. Here’s to the multiple sad renditions of ‘The Great Escape’ we’ll hear racket around Wembley during some dire friendly.