In a conference call with House Republicans last week, Boehner said they would push Obama on the debt limit, but not the continuing resolution to fund the government. Some weren't pleased, The National Review's Jonathan Strong reports, and the call turned "ugly." Georgia Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, for example, "told Boehner to 'go back to the drawing board.'" But Boehner showed no sign he'd do that on Monday night, at a fundraiser for Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson, the Idaho Statesman reports. "There is no reason for the government to run out of money," Boehner said. But risking the debt limit is fine. On Tuesday, Boehner's spokesman told Roll Call that the House GOP would demand spending cuts equal to the amount the debt ceiling is raised.

This is so Obama can save face. "Combining the two events essentially allows Obama to negotiate on both, while making it seem as though he is keeping his promise not to negotiate on the debt limit," the Washington Examiner's Carroll says.

GOP chaos is actually part of the plan. Salon's Brian Beutler argues that it might look like there's little chance any debt limit increase can pass the House with a majority of Republican votes, much less one that can do that and pass the Senate. That's OK! Here's the "ideal scenario," Beutler says:

...Boehner introduces legislation that both increases (or extends) the debt limit and includes some goodies for conservatives that make the bill a non-starter with Senate Democrats and the President (maybe a year-long delay of the individual mandate — let your imaginations run wild); that bill fails on the floor; everyone panics; faced with no better option, Boehner breaks the Hastert rule [allowing it to pass with Democratic votes], puts a tidy, Senate-passed debt limit bill on the floor, and we all dress up as Speaker Pelosi for Halloween.

That means Bohener's actually counting on the House GOP to descend into chaos so he can pass something that can get through the Senate.

Boehner is bluffing and will cave. At Business Insider, Josh Barro says the threat over the debt limit is a bluff. Remember the last time Boehner's spokesman said Republicans wouldn't raise the debt ceiling without an equal amount of spending cuts? It was December 2012. It didn't happen. In Idaho, Boehner said he wanted to cut mandatory spending, meaning Social Security and Medicare. But, Barro writes, there's no GOP "consensus on a package of entitlement reforms."

If Republicans were to stage another debt ceiling showdown over entitlement reform, they would have to (1) threaten to cause an economic crisis unless (2) they are given a package of reforms that many Republican officials don't even want, which (3) would also happen to be hugely unpopular with voters.

Once they get through the government funding fight, then the GOP will see the political costs of risking global financial crisis by not raising the debt ceiling, and cave like they did last time.