Cover 3 is a weekly feature column written by PewterReport.com’s Tampa Bay Bucs beat writer Trevor Sikkema published every Tuesday. The column, as its name suggests, comes in three phases: a statistical observation, an in-depth film breakdown, and a “this or that” segment where the writer asks the reader to chose between two options.

Sikkema’s Stat of the Week

There was a big shake up in the NFL world this week, and it centered around the Houston Texans. The Texans, who have been a playoff-caliber team built through their defense, were in a pickle this offseason, as tensions began to rise between them and their former No. 1 overall pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney.

After failing to reach a long-term contract agreement, the Texans franchise-tagged Clowney back in March. This wasn’t the end of negotiations, however, as they still had time to get a deal done before the season. But that didn’t happen, and as the summer days went by, it appeared the rift between the two grew more and more.

Fast forward to this past week and the Texans moved on from Clowney, trading him to the Seattle Seahawks for nothing more than a late Day 2 draft pick and two fringe linebackers. As a result of the move, they then flipped two of their first-round draft picks and an additional second-round pick for Miami Dolphins offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, a move that got a lot of conversations going.

The Dolphins choosing to make Ryan Fitzpatrick their starting quarterback and now trading their young, franchise left tackle for a plethora of picks tells me one thing: the Dolphins are tanking hard. After I learned of what the Dolphins got back for Tunsil, I said on Twitter that this was clearly a hard rebuild in order to make sure Miami has the chance to select one of Tua Tagovailoa or Trevor Lawrence over the next two years, hopefully setting up a potential dynasty with either quarterback as their centerpiece. I also mentioned that I respect this level of tanking – or, in less harsh terms – a head-first, no-looking-back commitment to a full rebuild.

One Dolphins fan responded back saying that it was easy for me to I respect the move because I don’t have to be a fan of the team who just sold out the next two years. My response to that was to remind him that Miami has been in purgatory for the better part of a decade, and that mediocrity, not losing, is the true enemy of all football franchises – you’re not good enough to make the playoffs, yet not bad enough to get a difference-maker in the draft.

Roping all this around to Tampa Bay, a Bucs fan then responded to my stance saying that football fans in Tampa Bay know all about mediocrity.

My response to that: no they don’t.

The Buccaneers have just two winning records over the last decade, and zero playoff appearances with them. Between 1983-1994, they had 12-straight double digit losing seasons. On top of all that, Tampa Bay is also the team with the lowest winning percentage all-time of any franchise in the NFL.

The Buccaneers aren’t mediocre, they’re just bad.

This year – 2019 – is the year to change that, one way or another.

All of this hangs on the shoulder of quarterback Jameis Winston. To this point, has Winston been the root of the all problems that have seen the Bucs amass a winning record just once since he was drafted in 2015? No, I wouldn’t say that. It’s rarely just one culprit, even if we are talking about a quarterback. But he hasn’t been enough to be the answer to those problems, either.

Right now the Bucs are in purgatory with Winston. He’ll look great one week, and he’ll be a reason they lose the next. No quarterback is perfect all the time. But Winston’s reliability has left them in purgatory week-in and week-out.

Whatever their future is, it can’t continue to be that.

Winston has to be better in 2019. He has to be better than he ever has been before. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in that past, but those flashes haven’t been consistent enough. He’s made boneheaded mistakes, but never enough to make you think he’s irreparable. All of that has led to countless debates over whether or not Winston is worth investing in, as a franchise and a fan. But make no mistake, this must be the last year of it.

Winston is now in the fifth-year club option of his rookie contract. You’ve likely read plenty of articles highlighting how this is the “make-or-break” year for him, and that the next contract he signs is likely one that will make him one of the richest players in the league, perhaps even the richest. So his play will have to be worth it.

But it’s not just Winston’s contract that we should be mindful of. It all centers around Winston, but the rest of the team’s contracts all point to 2019 being a make-or-break year, too. After this season, players like Ndamukong Suh, Demar Dotson, Carl Nassib, Shaq Barrett and Beau Allen are all free agents. Nassib and Barrett would be the only players in that pool under the age of 28, with the two high paid guys, Suh and Dotson, both being over 33 years old. If this team moves on from Winston, a hard reset of the roster would come with those players’ departure next.

But it’s not just them, either. The 2021 contracts set up to be even more important. In 2021, the Bucs will be faced with deciding the futures of Jason Pierre-Paul, Lavonte David, Vernon Hargreaves III and Chris Godwin as unrestricted free agents with a fifth-year club option for O.J. Howard. Godwin and Howard would likely be retained no matter what, but as for the other three, the Bucs could move on from both David and Pierre-Paul, who will both be over the age of 30 for no cap penalty at all. As for Hargreaves, we’ll see whether or not he’s worth carrying the team’s CB1 label after this season.

As for the front office, I don’t think Bruce Arians is going anywhere, even if the year happens to be end with another Top-15 draft pick. It also sounds like Arians sort of bullied his way into telling the Glazers that as long as he is there general manager Jason Licht has to be there, too – hence Licht’s contract extension early in 2019. However, neither coaching nor general manager contracts bring much security. Remember when Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen signed a three-year extension in 2008 just to be fired after that season?

So, it’s not hyperbole to say that the balance of this franchise all hangs on the shoulders of Winston. Not just on the roster, but everywhere.

The worst thing in the world for the Buccaneers in 2019 isn’t going 4-12 or 2-14. It’s going 7-9 or 6-10. It’s missing the mark, but not by much, giving you glimmer of hope that what you’re doing could still work, knowing that the evidence is now mounting that this core group might not be able to turn things around.

It gets tricky since this is an entirely new coaching staff. But even with the tough schedule the Bucs face, after winning just five games in back-to-back years due to a lot of coaching blunders, and having a much more experienced staff around the team now, I would think that Tampa Bay has to win more than five games – it should win more than that.

There is no magic number the Bucs or Winston have to hit to be safe, but it can’t be like it’s been. It’s hard to win in this league. I get that, and I don’t want to make it sound like winning or turning a franchise into a winner is as easy as typing it on a keyboard. But I do know that purgatory is the enemy.

The Bucs have been in purgatory with Winston as their quarterback, with Licht as their G.M. and with this roster the way it’s been for the last three seasons. It can’t continue after this year. After 2019, those groups will either be worth it or they won’t.

Either answer is better than where they’ve been.