Of Utah’s 90 races for the Legislature this year, only 19 are even moderately competitive in campaign fundraising. The others are financial blowouts, suggesting most races are not close with voters either, an analysis of disclosure forms shows.

“Those donations are symptomatic of the larger challenge the state faces in terms of having a vibrant electoral democracy. Competitive elections are a way to hold politicians accountable, and too many are not competitive,” said Chris Karpowitz, co-director of Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.

The fundraising overview suggests that little change is likely in the lopsided balance of power in the state Legislature — where Republicans hold supermajorities of 24-5 in the Senate and 62-13 in the House.

But some notable surprises are popping up that suggest trouble for a few incumbents or favorites in open-seat races. They include:

• In House District 73, unaffiliated candidate Marsha Holland raised four times as much money as Republican San Juan County Commissioner Phil Lyman — convicted of leading an illegal protest ride onto federal lands and a controversial figure in fights over Navajo voting rights. No Democrat filed in that race to replace retiring Rep. Mike Noel, R-Kanab.

• In House District 43, Democrat Diane Lewis also quadrupled the amount raised by incumbent Rep. Cheryl Acton, R-West Jordan, who was appointed to the House after winning a coin toss to fill a vacancy last year and who is running in the general election for the first time.

• In House District 64, United Utah Party candidate Hal Miller has nearly doubled the amount raised by Rep. Norm Thurston, R-Provo — but most of that money came from Miller’s own wallet. Democrat Daniel Friend trails far behind in fundraising. Thurston this year was stripped of committee assignments because of his comments to women.

• Two other incumbents also were outraised by their challengers: Sen. Daniel Thatcher, R-West Valley City, in Senate District 12, and Rep. Angela Romero, D-Salt Lake City, in House District 26.

(Christopher Cherrington | The Salt Lake Tribune)

Gaps in fundraising

An analysis of financial disclosure forms by The Salt Lake Tribune shows that most incumbents are thumping challengers in fundraising.

In the 68 races where an incumbent is running (not counting new Rep. Casey Snider, R-Paradise, who was appointed just this week), they raised an average of $23,995 each compared with challengers’ average of $6,119 — only a quarter of their rivals.

Often the gap is much wider. For example, House Majority Leader Brad Wilson, R-Kaysville, raised a hefty $54,867. His Democratic opponent, Rich Miller, reported raising $80 — or $1 for every $686 that Wilson piled up.

In 22 open races where no incumbent is running, candidates raised an average of $22,469 each. Still, only seven of those races are competitive financially. Most are runaways where, for example, a Republican in a GOP district or a Democrat in a Democratic district attracts the lion’s share of the money.

Karpowitz said years of research nationally show that incumbents tend to rake in the most money because they have proved they can win races — and hold power now — so big donors view giving to them as a safer bet. Challengers are more of a risk.

“Electability is an important factor for donors,” he said — and incumbents or open-seat nominees such as Republicans in a heavily Republican district have that.

“In a state that leans heavily to one party, in our case Republicans, you are going to get some races that are not competitive,” Karpowitz notes.

The situation has resulted in only 19 of Utah’s 90 legislative races being competitive financially — defined in this analysis as a candidate raising at least two-thirds the amount of a money leader, or at least $20,000.

When few elections are competitive, Karpowitz said, “that makes it harder to hold politicians accountable."

Changing that could take years or decades, he adds, as Utah demographics change — as more outsiders move in — or boundaries are redrawn to make districts more competitive.

Controversial Phil Lyman

One of the surprises on the campaign fundraising landscape is Marsha Holland, who is not affiliated with any party, far outdistancing Republican Phil Lyman: $43,641 to $9,945.

“Everyone has a tale about Phil Lyman down here, and it’s usually not a good one,” Holland, a tour-guide operator residing in Tropic, Garfield County, said of her impressive fundraising. “I mean, he is a criminal and is still on probation. I’m standing for honesty and integrity.”

Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune Ryan Bundy, son of the Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, rides an ATV into Recapture Canyon, which has been closed to motorized use since 2007, after a call-to-action by San Juan County Commissioner Phil Lyman on Saturday, May 10, 2014, north of Blanding.

Lyman was convicted of a misdemeanor for leading a 2014 protest ride onto protected federal lands, making him a heroic anti-federal voice for many Republicans in a heavily GOP district that covers San Juan, Kane, Wayne, Garfield, Piute and parts of Beaver and Sevier counties.

He was an outspoken opponent of the original Bears Ears National Monument before President Donald Trump erased much of it. Lyman also fought measures designed to give more power to Navajo voters — including a court-ordered redrawing of his commission district that gave Navajos a majority there.

“She does what is good for her campaign, and I do what is good for mine,” Lyman said in a voicemail left for The Tribune in response to a question about fundraising.

(Leah Hogsten | Tribune file photo) Phil Lyman, a San Juan County commissioner tired of waiting for the Bureau of Land Management to determine whether to allow ATVs back into Recapture Canyon, spearheaded a May 10, 2014, ATV ride throughout the canyon to protest what he says is the BLM's lack of leadership and decision making. He is pictured April 26, 2014.

West Jordan fight

Rep. Cheryl Acton, R-West Jordan, was appointed last year to replace then-Rep. Adam Gardiner, who resigned to become Salt Lake County recorder. Facing her first general election, she has raised $14,282.

But Democrat Diane Lewis amassed much more: $44,711. Lewis is business manager of a construction trades union and has taken in $31,466 from unions.

"I don’t know how she can spend all of that. Our district isn’t that big geographically,” Acton said, adding she has plenty of money to run her campaign. She notes that Republicans have controlled her House seat as long as she can remember.

(Scott Sommerdorf | Tribune file photo) Rep. Cheryl K. Acton, R-West Jordan, in the Utah House of Representatives, March 7, 2018.

Lewis said she needs the money to overcome Republican and incumbent advantages.

She ran four years ago for that House seat unsuccessfully. “I learned that I need to do more to get my name out there.” She figures she has a better chance this year with a newly appointed incumbent, who may not be well known yet.

A Republican trailing in Provo?

GOP Rep. Norm Thurston’s Provo district may be among the most Republican areas in a very Republican county in a red state. But he trails 2-to-1 in fundraising.

United Utah Party candidate Hal Miller, a former Provo City Council member, raised $19,005 to Thurston’s $10,653. Democrat Daniel Friend trails with $5,951.

But almost all of Miller’s money came from personal funds: $18,355.

“I need to spend more because this is a heavily Republican district. I have to do that to have a chance,” Miller said. Also, he is trying to build awareness for his new middle-of-the-road party “and I am putting its name and logo everywhere I can to let people know there is an alternative.”

Thurston said he is taking Miller’s challenge seriously, but “ultimately I feel I will win because my message appeals to people and their values in my district.” He said he is campaigning hard.

(Steve Griffin | Tribune file photo) Rep. Norm Thurston, R-Provo, who sponsored the state's strict new 0.05 DUI bill, talks to the Salt Lake Tribune from his office at the State Health Department, where he is the director the office of Health Care Statistics, June 8, 2017.

Potentially hurting Thurston is that this year he was removed as vice chairman of the House Government Operations Committee and taken off the House Health and Human Services Committee after he had been admonished by House leaders for inappropriate behavior toward women. Thurston, of note, also wrote Utah’s new toughest-in-the-nation drunken driving law that lowers the allowed blood alcohol content from 0.08 to 0.05.

Other incumbents behind in fundraising

Two-term Sen. Daniel Thatcher, R-West Valley City, is the state’s only incumbent senator who is trailing a challenger in fundraising. Democrat Clare Collard raised $41,184 to Thatcher’s $35,401.

Thatcher said that should not be surprising, adding that his is the only GOP-held Senate seat where Democrats outnumber Republicans. “But the party label doesn’t really matter to people in my district. They vote for people who listen to them and solve problems, and I do that.”

(Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) State Sen. Daniel Thatcher speaks during a news conference about the National Suicide Prevention Hotline Improvement Act being signed into law. Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2018.

Collard did not return calls seeking comment. She also ran against Thatcher in 2014. Thatcher won that race 56 percent to 44 percent.

Three-term Rep. Angela Romero, D-Salt Lake City, was outraised by Republican Man Hung, $7,980 to $7,198.

(Francisco Kjolseth | Tribune file photo) Rep. Angela Romero, D-Salt Lake, sponsor of HB200, which passed in 2017 and implements funding to create a statewide sexual assault kit tracking system that will allow survivors to monitor their rape kits in real time, June 6, 2018.

“It’s less about dollars than connection to the community,” Romero said, adding she has developed a good relationship through years of service. She notes most of her donations come from district residents. “People want someone who will be a voice for the district and stand up for their concerns.”

Hung did not return calls seeking comment.

Other competitive races to watch

Fundraising totals suggest that several other races are close or competitive. Some that are perhaps the closest include:

• Holladay/Cottonwood Heights, Senate District 8: This is one of the state’s true swing districts. Recently appointed Sen. Brian Zehnder, R-Holladay, raised $146,089. Democrat Kathleen Riebe was far behind but still gathered a hefty $56,465.

• Draper, House District 32: Two years ago, Democrat Suzanne Harrison lost by a handful of votes to Rep. LaVar Christensen — who ran unsuccessfully this year for the Senate. Harrison has raised $88,790 this year. Republican nominee Brad Bonham has amassed much more: $149,005.

• Murray, House District 54: Four years ago, GOP Rep. Bruce Cutler won by 53 votes after trailing on election night. Last year, he won by fewer than 300 votes. He appears to be in another close race as he raised $38,550 to $36,599 by Democrat Andrew Stoddard.

• South Ogden, House District 11: GOP Rep. Kelly Miles has barely outraised Democrat Jason Allen, $12,706 to $12,021.

• Weber County, House District 8: The race to replace retiring Rep. Gage Froerer, R-Huntsville, has a twist. Deana Froerer, his sister-in-law, is the Democratic nominee and has raised $27,663. GOP nominee Steve Waldrip, though, has mustered more: $40,988.

• Riverton/Bluffdale, House District 41: In the race to replace GOP Rep. Dan McCay — who is running for the Senate — Republican Mark Strong has raised $10,897 to $9,796 for United Utah Party candidate Steve Walston. Trailing is Democrat Wendy Garvin, who gathered $1,929.

• Others: Fundraising totals also indicate the following races are competitive: Senate District 2 in Salt Lake City between Democrat Derek Kitchen and Republican Chase Winder; Senate District 26 in the Uinta Basin between Republican Ronald Winterton and Democrat Eileen Gallagher; House District 5 in Cache County between Republican Casey Snider (just appointed to the Legislature this week) and Karina Brown; and House District 29 in Box Elder County between GOP Rep. Lee Perry and Democrat Kerry Wayne.