What Kentucky has to do to make the NCAA tournament

Throughout the preseason, John Calipari told anyone who would listen that those who ranked his Kentucky team in the top five of a preseason poll needed to be drug tested.

No one is arguing with him now. And not only is no one confusing the defending national champion with a national championship contender, but there's no guarantee Kentucky will even reach the 68-team NCAA tournament.

That scenario became a legitimate possibility after Saturday's home loss to Texas A&M. There's typically a sky-is-falling mentality in Lexington after every Kentucky loss, but this season there are several reasons for fans to look up and cover their heads: The middling Wildcats (10-5, 1-1 Southeastern Conference) find themselves in a precarious position and it's only mid-January.

But before Big Blue Nation abandons hope altogether — it may be too late for some — and begins the countdown to when prized twin prospects Andrew and Aaron Harrison arrive on campus next fall, let's take a look at Kentucky's already battered body of work.

To be clear, Kentucky's body of work is bland, not awful.

And that's the best thing about the Wildcats' NCAA tournament résumé at the moment: Unlike some teams — looking at you Florida State — they have not done anything thus far that will make the NCAA tournament selection committee cringe.

Their worst loss is at Rupp against a Texas A&M team fighting to get in NCAA tournament consideration. The bigger issue is the location of the loss rather than the mediocre opponent. And there is no shame in the other Kentucky setbacks to Duke, Notre Dame, Baylor and Louisville, though losses are beginning to mount.

But before you get too optimistic, consider this: The Wildcats have played the nation's 44th-toughest schedule thus far, but they have not beaten anyone of consequence. No one.

Kentucky's best win of course is the season-opening three-point triumph against a young Maryland team that figured to improve as the season progressed. UK fans better hope that win is viewed as a quality victory when the selection committee convenes in March.

They need to buy Maryland hats and root for the Terrapins to turn into a solid NCAA tournament team. No guarantee there. After losing consecutive Atlantic Coast Conference games — including Sunday's loss at Miami in which they scored 14 first-half points — the Terrapins appear more like a erratic-yet-promising work in progress than an NCAA tournament team.

The Terrapins' RPI is trending in the wrong direction and a lot closer to 100 than 50, and if they don't turn it around then Kentucky has nothing impressive in the least bit on its résumé at the moment. A more significant problem is that because Kentucky resides in the lackluster SEC, opportunities for quality victories are few and far between the rest of the way. You can't beat good teams if you don't play 'em.

Here's how mediocre the SEC is: It has two schools — Florida and Missouri — in the top 40 of the RPI. The Big Ten, widely considered the nation's strongest conference, has five teams — Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State — in the top 20 of the RPI.

So when you look at Kentucky's remaining schedule, it does not play anyone at all hovering around the top 50 of the RPI until it visits Mississippi on Jan. 29 and Texas A&M on Feb. 2. As for chances to achieve truly impressive victories before the SEC tournament, it has just three opportunities: against Florida Feb. 12 and March 9, and against Missouri Feb. 23.

Even if the Wildcats avoid stumbling against some of the SEC's worst — looking at you, Auburn, Mississippi State and Georgia — then they will need to pick off a couple legitimate top 50 wins, meaning Missouri and/or Florida. Right now it has no top-50 wins and good luck finding more than a few in the nation's seventh-best conference.

Compare this to a team that has a similar RPI as Kentucky: Wisconsin. The Badgers have nine remaining games against RPI top-50 teams because of the robust Big Ten schedule. And they might play a few more in the Big Ten tournament.

If Kentucky can find some leadership on its roster, and if the freshmen blossom over the next two months, the Wildcats will have a chance, a real chance. No, not to reach another Final Four, but to simply earn an at-large tournament berth. And if UK fans are still pessimistic, remember that 68 teams will make this tournament, guaranteed, even if the selection committee has to hold its collective nose and hand a middling team like Kentucky one of the final at-large bids.