Super Tuesday 2020 Primary Preview, Part 1: Alabama, Arkansas, & California Local Races

Next week is Super Tuesday in the Presidential race, but it is also both the first and biggest downballot general election primary day of the year, and we’re celebrating all week with a 4-part preview series. 5 states comprising over a quarter of the country’s population – Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas – are going to congressional and state primary polls. Poll closing times are as follows in ET: (bold means a state has regular downballot primary races in addition to the Presidential contest)

7 – VT, VA || 7:30 – NC || 8 – AL, ME, MA, OK, TN, TX || 8:30 – AR || 9 – MN|| 10 – CO, UT || 11 – CA (no results Tues night)

Today we are covering Alabama and Arkansas. Tomorrow we cover North Carolina, California House races on Friday, and we wrap things up with Texas next Monday.

Flip over the fold for the full previews!

Alabama:

AL-Sen (R): The big race in Alabama is the GOP US Senate primary.

Doug Jones

Incumbent Doug Jones (D) is seeking a full term. As you probably recall, Jones improbably won a 2017 special election in spite of the deep-red lean of the state by virtue of his opponent self-destructing. A former US Attorney under the Clinton administration, he was best-known prior to his election as the prosecutor of the 1963 Birmingham church bombings. Perhaps being well aware at how difficult his chances for a full term are in the deep-red state, Jones has not been a particularly conservative Democrat in the Senate. Though he is toward the moderate side of the Dem caucus, Jones has generally toed the party line on most major issues, including hot-button topics dear to Alabama’s conservative electorate. In particular, Jones is staunchly pro-choice in a state where the median voter is staunchly pro-life, and supported impeachment. Though those postures may make his already difficult re-election bid even more so, it has been good for his fundraising, as he has an 8-figure warchest, and may help him get a post in the next Democratic administration. Due to the deep-red lean of Alabama, seven Republicans are vying to take him on this year, six of them notable.

Jeff Sessions

Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) is seeking a comeback to his old Senate seat, which he resigned from in 2017 to become Trump’s AG. Sessions was previously a US Attorney in the Reagan administration and state AG before two decades in the Senate, where he was known as a populist antiestablishment conservative and an immigration hawk. He received the AG post from Trump as a reward for being the first member of Congress to back his candidacy. To say that Sessions’s tenure as Trump’s AG was rocky would be an understatement, as their relationship was dominated by Trump’s dissatisfaction, which often veered into open resentment, over Sessions’s handling of the Mueller investigation. Sessions was finally fired at the end of 2018 and stayed out of the spotlight for a year before surprisingly jumping into this race at the filing deadline. Sessions obviously has universal name recognition and a powerful brand in the state, but his rocky relationship with Trump means he will face a tough fight to return to the seat he won unopposed six years ago. Sessions’s name recognition and base likely mean he is all but certain to get a runoff spot, but getting to 50% in the second round may be a challenge for him. So far Trump has stayed out of the race, but there is always a chance he could end his frenemy’s campaign with a single tweet.

Tommy Tuberville

Former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville (R) was the head coach at Alabama’s second-biggest football program from 1999 to 2008, also coaching at three other major football programs in his career. Though Tuberville was generally considered a good-but-not-great coach at Auburn, in a state that is the nation’s epicenter of college football, that post has given him an enduring high profile and name recognition. With the help of $1M in self-funding, Tuberville has the second largest gross hauls in the primary field at 2.5M. That warchest has allowed him to reintroduce himself to the state effectively, running as a populist mainstream conservative and emphasizing his outsider profile. However, Tuberville has faced some controversies in this race, including saying last year he was “pissed off at Trump” for his handling of the VA, and his prior involvement with a hedge-fund swindler that led Tuberville to pay a significant lawsuit settlement. Tuberville has generally been polling well, near a tie with Sessions in recent polls.

Bradley Byrne

Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) is seeking to move up to the Senate after seven years in the House representing the Mobile area. Byrne is a longtime pol, with stints on the state school board and legislature. He was perhaps best known for his successful tenure cleaning up corruption as head of the state’s community colleges. That post led to him starting a 2010 gubernatorial campaign as the front-runner before losing in the runoff to the more populist now-ex-Gov. Robert Bentley (R). Byrne bounced back with a special election House win in 2013, and has been a backbench establishment conservative in Congress. Byrne has had the field’s best fundraising with total hauls of $3.5M, and has decent institutional support, particularly from the Mobile area. However, his establishment-friendly record in Congress has drawn the ire of antiestablishment groups like the Club for Growth, who have spent against him. Tuberville’s rise and Sessions’s entry in the race have in recent weeks seemed more likely to push him into third place and out of the runoff.

Arnold Mooney

State Rep. Arnold Mooney (R) has represented an upper-middle-class seat in Birmingham’s southern suburbs for six years. Mooney has had mediocre but credible fundraising, with total hauls of just under $1M. He is generally running as an antiestablishment ideological conservative in the Tea Party tradition. His statewide name recognition and fundraising trails his three major rivals. However, for someone generally seen as a bit of a fourth wheel in the primary, Mooney has collected surprisingly solid institutional support. His main base comes from antiestablishment ideological conservatives, particularly those of a libertarian or fiscal conservative bent, with major endorsements from Sens. Rand Paul (R) and Mike Lee (R) and Byrne’s delegation colleague Rep. Mo Brooks (R).

Stanley Adair

Businessman Stanley Adair (R) has dabbled in several business interests in his career, most notably founding a furniture manufacturing company. He is running as a staunchly antiestablishment populist conservative. He has not self-funded but has had a modest amount of donor fundraising, around a quarter-million. Though those numbers would make him a factor in a House race, they are inadequate for a statewide bid for someone with no name recognition or institutional connections. Thus, Adair looks likely to finish at or barely above asterisk-level.

Roy Moore

Finally, 2017 nominee Roy Moore (R) is mounting another bid for the seat. Moore is a former two-time State Supreme Court Justice and RRH 2017 Turkey of the Year Award Winner. Moore’s first stint on the state Supreme Court ended with his removal after he refused to take down a statue of the Ten Commandments in front of the courthouse. Moore had a dedicated base of social conservatives until the 2017 race, when an explosive story from the Washington Post dropped revealing that Moore was, in the words of our Turkey of the Year nomination, proving that “mall-walking is a great way for our senior citizens to stay young.” Several women accused him, in well-corroborated accounts, of habitually and aggressively hitting on teenage girls while a 30-something prosecutor in the late 70s and early 80s, including incidents that might have been prosecutable as statutory rape had they come to light within the statute of limitations. After becoming the only Republican in the entire 2010s decade to lose a statewide race in Alabama, he inexplicably decided to try again in this race despite his overall favorability with primary voters being toxic. Mercifully, Moore has not gained much traction beyond his most devoted fans, and has had little fundraising or institutional support. Thus, while he will probably still take a few points worth of die-hard fans, his chances of taking a runoff spot are slim.

There is also one more non-serious Republican in the race. Overall, CW seems to be predicting a runoff between Sessions and Tuberville that will be highly competitive, though there is a real chance Byrne or even Mooney could sneak through and snatch a slot from either (with Byrne topping Tuberville the most likely case there). In the general, barring an unlikely Moore nomination, the deep-red lean of the state and presidential-year electorate (which Trump is certain to easily carry) should make any GOP nominee at least a moderate favorite to oust Jones. As an incumbent, Jones will likely be able to command some national resources and could make the race competitive. But make no mistake, Jones’s path to a full term is an exceptionally steep one in any likely scenario. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

AL-1 (R): AL-1 is an R+15 seat basically coextensive with the Mobile metro area on the state’s Gulf Coast, and including a small amount of rural territory to the north. The seat is open as incumbent Bradley Byrne (R) is running for the Senate, and four notable Republicans are in the race.

Jerry Carl

Mobile County commissioner Jerry Carl (R) has represented the south side of Mobile and its southern suburbs. A businessman who has started multiple ventures, Carl is the best-funded candidate thanks to nearly a half-million in self-funding. He has raised roughly the same amount from donors for a total warchest around $1M. Carl has deployed those resources effectively, by airing early TV ads that raised his name recognition, and staked out a position as an antiestablishment-leaning conservative. Carl has a modest amount of local institutional support and led by a modest margin in a recent poll of the race.

Bill Hightower

Ex-State Sen. Bill Hightower (R) represented the southern Mobile suburbs for five years before an unsuccessful bid for Governor in 2018, taking 4% and fourth place in a campaign that did not gain much traction outside the Mobile area. However, that bid has still provided dividends in raising his name recognition for this race. Hightower has raised the most from donors with a warchest in the high six-figures, though he has held back somewhat on spending it to save cash for a runoff. Hightower is known as a staunch ideological conservative who straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment proclivities. He has secured a notable outside endorsement in the race from the Club for Growth.

Chris Pringle

State Rep. Chris Pringle (R) has served two separate stints in the legislature representing the west side of Mobile. His first tenure in the 90s ended with an unsuccessful run for this seat back in 2002. A realtor specializing in timberlands, Pringle is running as an establishment conservative. He has significant institutional support, particularly from chamber-of-commerce interests, and has fundraised well, with gross hauls just shy of a half-million. While Pringle trails both Carl and Hightower in both funds and name recognition, the disparity is far from overwhelming on both fronts and he could easily surprise.

Wes Lambert

Businessman Wes Lambert (R) owns a moving company and a small local chain of restaurants. He is running as an establishment conservative and is the only serious candidate from the Baldwin County portion of the district east of Mobile Bay, which could give him a geographic base. However, his name recognition and institutional support are poor. Thanks to $100K in self-funding, he has had mediocre but credible fundraising overall with hauls in the low six figures, though he still trails his rivals on that front.

Overall, a runoff is thought to be nearly certain, and CW is that Carl and Hightower are the favorites for the two slots; they led in a recent poll of the race. However, both Pringle and Lambert are serious enough to each have a shot at snatching away a runoff spot. Almost regardless of pairing, the second round will likely be highly competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

AL-2 (R): AL-2 is an R+16 seat covering the state’s southeastern corner around Dothan and the Wiregrass region, along with most of the White-majority parts of Montgomery and its northern and southern suburbs. The seat is open as incumbent Martha Roby (R) is retiring, and five notable Republicans are in the race.

Jeff Coleman

Moving company owner Jeff Coleman (R) is the clear front-runner. Coleman runs Coleman Worldwide, a large national moving company that he inherited as a family business and has grown over his career. Unsurprisingly, Coleman is the best-funded candidate by far, with his $2M gross hauls doubling all his rivals combined. More surprisingly, only about half of that warchest comes from self-funding. Coleman is running as a mainstream establishment conservative and has a decent amount of institutional support, particularly from chamber-of-commerce type interests. His funds allowed him to raise his name recognition early, and he has jumped out to a large lead in the few polls of the race, even flirting with the 50% mark needed to clinch outright. However, that position as made him a target for his four rivals hoping to hold him to a runoff. In particular, Coleman has been hit over a fraud settlement his company settled with the government for allegedly inflating the weight of military supplies the company moved.

Jessica Taylor

Businesswoman Jessica Taylor (R) received national buzz several weeks ago when she teamed up with three other female GOP candidates to create “the conservative squad” as an answer to the left-wing AOC/Omar/Tlaib/Pressley “Squad”. Taylor is a former state government staffer who now runs a consulting firm. She is running as an antiestablishment conservative, and received buzz for an ad in which she fires a flamethrower to destroy a sign reading “impeachment”. Taylor has had good-but-not-great fundraising and a modest amount of institutional support, particularly from national groups looking to boost Republican women.

Barry Moore

Ex-State Rep. and 2018 candidate Barry Moore (R) served eight-years in the legislature from the Wiregrass region before an unsuccessful primary challenge to Roby last cycle. A veteran, Moore has played up that status and his history as the state’s first elected official to back Trump in 2016. Moore was known as one of the legislature’s most staunchly antiestablishment conservatives, and is running as an antiestablishment populist in this race. His fundraising has been good but not great, with $140K in self-funding and an equivalent amount in donor funds. He could also benefit from residual name recognition gained in his bid two years ago.

Troy King

Ex-AG Troy King (R) is once again seeking a comeback, and has the name recognition to be a serious contender. However, his name recognition is not necessarily a positive. King was AG for a term and a half until 2010, when he was ousted in the primary; he then failed in a comeback bid for that office in 2018. King’s tenure as AG was notable for a massive cloud of corruption issues. Most notably, he accepted a gift of luxury sports skyboxes from utility companies (in a move that was legal at the time but so unsavory that the legislature rushed to immediately outlaw it). King is also generally regarded as completely in the pocket of gambling interests, taking large amounts of money from casino interests (including contributions for his 2018 race after pledging not to accept them) while issuing policy opinions that generally expanded gambling in the state. King’s 2018 comeback bid for the AG’s office fell flat in the primary runoff, but he still retains high name recognition and a real base. He is running as an establishment conservative with a cultural conservative emphasis, and his AG tenure was marked by one of the silliest moments of the mid-2000s social conservative movement, a crusade to rid the state of sex toys. King has also had good but not great fundraising, though unsurprisingly his institutional support has been fairly poor due to his scandals.

Terri Hasdorff

Federal and state government official Terri Hasdorff (R) has had a long career in behind-the-scenes aspects of government, including stints in the Congressional Administrative Office and Bush 43 administration in DC, and leading the state’s office of faith-based-initiatives in Montgomery. She is running as an establishment conservative with a cultural conservative emphasis. She is likely to take a few points of support and make a runoff more likely. However, Hasdorff has had poor fundraising, barely enough to run a credible campaign, and has little name recognition or institutional support, which probably makes her a longer-shot to advance to a runoff spot.

Overall, the big question here is whether Coleman can wrap the race up in one round or a second round will be triggered, and that question seems close to a coin-flip. If a second round is triggered, Taylor, Moore, and King all would seem to have roughly equal chances to move on with Coleman. There are also two minor candidates in the race, who will marginally increase the chances of a runoff. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

AL-5 (R): AL-5 is an R+18 seat covering an east-west stripe across the state’s northern end. It includes most of the Tennessee Valley around metro Huntsville, Decatur, Athens, and Florence, though not the Muscle Shoals or Guntersville areas.

Mo Brooks

Incumbent Mo Brooks (R) is seeking a sixth term. Brooks had a long political career with nearly three decades in the legislature and local office before moving to Congress. In the last decade, Brooks has been known as one of the House’s most prominent antiestablishment conservatives, especially for his 2010 primary ouster of party-switching then-Rep. Parker Griffith (D->R->D). Brooks is an antiestablishment conservative with a fiscal conservative emphasis, in line with the Tea Party tradition, and has not been on great terms with more establishment-friendly corners of the GOP. That posture came back to bite him in his attempt to run for Senate in 2017, when he was nuked by forces loyal to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), who blasted Brooks with ads criticizing some Trump-skeptical statements he made in the 2016 Presidential primary. Wounds from that race led to Brooks getting a serious challenge in the GOP primary last cycle. Though he prevailed by a margin of 20 points, another serious Republican has stepped up to take him on this year as well.

Chris Lewis

Zoning board member and veteran Chris Lewis (R) served over a decade in the Navy before retiring and working as a consultant. Lewis has had mediocre but credible fundraising, with a warchest in the low six figures. He has particularly strong support from farm interests, for reasons that are not entirely obvious, as Brooks has not specifically done anything to anger agriculture interests. Lewis is running as an establishment conservative and emphasizing his military service and outsider background.

Brooks got an endorsement from Trump last week, a sign that perhaps he is concerned about the race being competitive. Lewis is a credible candidate who has a real potential base of anti-Brooks sentiment to build off. However, Brooks is an incumbent, outpaces Lewis in funds and name recognition, and has support from Trump and a strong rapport with the area’s ideological conservative base. While a Lewis upset is a slight possibility, Brooks still seems a substantial favorite for renomination. Democrats are not contesting this seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

AL-PSC (R, D): The chairman’s seat on the 3-member Alabama Public Service commission is up this year for a four-year term.

Twinkle Cavanaugh

Incumbent Twinkle Cavanaugh (R) has served a decade on the PSC and is seeking a third term as chair. She is known as an establishment-friendly social conservative. Cavanaugh is a former state GOP chair who has strong statewide name recognition from her three prior runs, including ousting a Dem incumbent in 2012. Though she underperformed in losing a LG primary in 2018, she is still the strong favorite to continue on as PSC chair this year.

Teacher and 2018 candidate Robin Litaker (R) is seeking a seat on the commission a second time after falling short by a 2:1 margin two years ago. Litaker is once again running an underfunded campaign that does not seem terribly serious, and should not be a serious threat to oust Cavanaugh barring something seriously unexpected.

Two little-known Dems are facing off for their party’s nomination. Steelworker and Dem operative Robert Mardis (D) is running on a liberal platform with emphasis on environmental issues, while Laura Casey (D) is known for suing the commission after being ejected from a PSC meeting for broadcasting a live stream of the proceedings. Both are little-known and poorly funded, and thus random vote-scattering likely determines the nominee. Due to the GOP lean of Alabama, the Republican will likely be a prohibitive favorite in the general.

AL-BoE Referendum: This week there is also a referendum in Alabama to change the 8-member State Board of Education from an elected body (elected in districts) to an appointed one. Support and opposition does not cut cleanly down identifiable lines, as the proposal passed with large majorities in both chambers. Most of the legislative opposition came from Democrats, but the state GOP organization has come out in favor of a “no” vote, with some of the most forceful opposition coming from antiestablishment conservatives opposed to national education standards. Overall, I would probably expect it to pass, but the vote could reasonably go either way.

Arkansas:

Tom Cotton

Arkansas is a pretty boring state this year, with no major primaries of note. There are two general election races worth a mention though.

AR-Sen: Atop the ballot in Arkansas is the nation’s least exciting Senate race. Sen. Tom Cotton (R) faces no GOP opposition for a second term in the deep-red state. Democrats are not contesting the seat after their prior sacrificial lamb dropped out after the filing deadline. Cotton’s only opposition comes from two little-known and unfunded third-party candidates, left-leaning Independent Dan Whitfield (I) and Libertarian Ricky Harrington (L). Obviously Cotton will cruise to an easy general election victory. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

AR-2: AR-2 is an R+7 seat covering almost all the Little Rock metro area except a small chunk of its outer eastern suburbs, and some rural areas to the north, northeast, and west. It is historically-Democratic but has swung fairly consistently into the GOP column in recent years.

French Hill

Incumbent French Hill (R) is seeking a third term. Hill is a former bank executive who has been a backbench establishment conservative in the House. Backstopped by self-funding ability, Hill’s campaigns have been well-funded. Though he had a relatively close race in 2018, he still prevailed by a healthy if modest 6-point margin.

Joyce Elliott

This year, Democrats are running State Sen. and 2010 nominee Joyce Elliott (D). Elliott was the nominee for this seat a decade ago, losing amid the 2010 wave. She is known as one of the state’s foremost liberal voices in a Democratic party that still has a large number of Blue Dogs. After dabbling with a Senate run, she jumped into this seat at the filing deadline. While Elliott’s fundraising has so far been mediocre, she has time with no primary. Overall, Democrats recruiting a sitting officeholder and Hill’s modest victory two years ago leave this seat on the very edge of the playing field, but it is unlikely to be much more competitive barring an improvement in the national climate for Dems or an unforced error by Hill. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

California Local Races: We are covering California local races in this preview to cut Friday’s preview down to a more manageable length.

CA Mayors: Six major cities in California are holding Mayoral elections this week in a Louisiana Rules Top Two format.

San Diego-Mayor (LRTT): America’s 8th-largest city, San Diego has a population of 1.42M, which breaks down as roughly 45% White, 30% Hispanic, 15% Asian, and 5% Black. The city has four major geographic regions. The southern edge of the city is San Ysidro, a poor, overwhelmingly Hispanic exclave along the Mexican border roughly 10 miles south of the main part of the city. Around downtown and to the east and southeast, south of I-8, are urban, generally poor neighborhoods, largely Hispanic with significant Black and Asian populations. Neighborhoods along the Pacific Coast, including La Jolla and Pacific Beach, are generally upscale White areas with a mixture of limousine liberals and some more hipsterish areas. And the northeast part of the city, north of I-8 and east of I-5, is a large swath of upper-middle-class White-majority suburbs that were historically very conservative, but have been stampeding left in recent years. These groups overall make a city that is increasingly strongly Dem-leaning with a PVI of D+18. However, Republicans have historically dominated local Government in San Diego. Incumbent Kevin Faulconer (R) is term limited and the seat is open.

State Rep. Todd Gloria (D) is generally considered the front-runner by polling, fundraising, and institutional support. Gloria has represented the city’s downtown area and Pacific Coast for four years after eight years representing the downtown area on the city council. He has also served as a top staffer to now-retiring Rep. Susan Davis (D) and was thought likely to be her successor in the House before opting to stay in the Mayor’s race. Gloria has interesting identity-politics credibility as he is openly-gay and quadri-racial (with Native American, Asian, White, and Hispanic ancestry). Ideologically, Gloria is a bold progressive on cultural issues, but an establishment liberal on fiscal ones and relatively business-friendly by California Dem standards. In particular, Gloria is seen as a friend of development interests. He has fundraised a 7-figure warchest for the race and coalesced broad institutional support, including the county Dem party’s official endorsement, as well as support from both labor and business groups.

Councilwoman Barbara Bry (D) was long seen as Gloria’s main rival. A former tech executive, Bry has represented the La Jolla area, a very wealthy liberal area with some hipster enclaves around the UCSD campus, for one four-year term. Bry had strong support from the area’s Dem establishment four years ago, but has lost out on that backing to Gloria in this race. Ideologically, Bry is a mainstream liberal, perhaps a bit more centrist than Gloria. However, her main point of differentiation for this race is by casting herself as the NIMBY candidate on an array of zoning and land-use issues. That could allow her to maintain a base among high-turnout upscale voters. Bry has fundraised well, though her hauls are short of Gloria’s.

Councilman Scott Sherman (R) scrambled the Gloria-Bry pairing when he jumped into the race just before the filing deadline. Sherman has represented a suburban area in the northeastern part of the city for eight years. He is generally running as a moderate conservative in the Faulconer mold, with a campaign focused mainly on pushing back against some of his rivals’ cultural-liberal pet projects. Sherman could easily make the runoff by coalescing the GOP vote, but his late start could be a handicap in fundraising and gaining citywide name recognition.

Nonprofit exec Tasha Williamson (D) is known as a left-wing activist, particularly on policing issues. Williamson is known as a protest organizer and activist against police brutality. Her campaign has been poorly-funded, but she has significant name recognition and support among left-wing minorities in the city’s southern neighborhoods. She is unlikely to finish higher than fourth place, but will still probably draw a significant vote share.

Two other candidates are non-serious. Nurse Gita Applebaum (D) is running as a mainstream liberal, while IT technician Rich Riel (I) ran an asterisk-level campaign for Mayor back in 1983 and is running this year on a populist-right platform. Both are little-known, poorly-funded, and unlikely to be significant factors. Overall, CW seems to be betting on a runoff between Gloria and Sherman, as they took the top two spots in the most recent poll of the race. However, Bry has been a close third in polling and could have a chance to upset that pairing by taking the second spot from Sherman. Gloria will likely be favored over either in the second round, though Bry probably has a better shot than Sherman to pull the upset given the increasingly deep blue lean of the city.

Fresno-Mayor (LRTT): Fresno is the Central Valley’s largest city. Its population of 530K is roughly 45% Hispanic, 30% White, and 10% each Black and Asian (largely Hmong). Fresno has two major regions. The southern half of the city is largely poor to lower-middle-class and heavily Hispanic, while the northern half of the city is middle-class to upscale, mostly White, and generally conservative. In spite of the low White population, turnout differentials and a very conservative White population mean overall Fresno is only a medium-blue with a PVI of D+8. Republicans have historically overperformed that baseline dramatically; Democrats have not won a Mayoral race since 1988. The seat is open as incumbent Lee Brand (R) is stepping down after one term. Eight candidates are running, but only two are serious.

Police Chief Jerry Dyer (R) is a career officer who served nearly two decades as the city’s police chief. Dyer has maintained a very high profile as chief, including appearing on billboards and in a national commercial for a security company. He has remained as chief in spite of a number of scandals that range from the prosaic to the downright bizarre: he has admitted to making racially- and sexually-insensitive comments in staff meetings, his top deputy was sent to prison for running a drug ring, he was once investigated for having an affair with a 16-year old girl, and one of his department’s officers was found dead, apparently by suicide, directly in front of his house. However, Dyer has seemed to be utter Teflon to those issues, with his magnetic personality and competent management of public safety in the city enough to effectively insulate him from any criticism of his tenure as chief. He is very open about his faith as a born-again Christian, but is running in this race as a mainstream to moderate conservative, in the mold of Brand. Unsurprisingly, Dyer has been focusing on his wheelhouse of public safety in the race. Dyer has outraised his main rival significantly and has strong establishment support, including from some traditionally-Democratic groups like public employee unions.

Prosecutor and 2018 CA-22 congressional nominee Andrew Janz (D) became nationally known two years ago with his run against Rep. Devin Nunes (R), a top Trump defender and national liberal lightning rod. Janz raised a torrent of cash for that race and lost by a closer-than-expected 6-point margin. Janz’s 2018 campaign was targeted at a national audience with an all-anti-Trump-all-the-time message. However, he has pivoted toward the center for this race, running as a moderate liberal and focusing more on non-partisan quality of life issues. Janz has fundraised credibly, though his hauls are well short of Dyer’s. He has a major asset in the increasingly blue lean of the city, but overcoming Dyer’s personal appeal will still be a challenge.

Six other candidates are not running serious campaigns or a real threat to advance. 2018 gubernatorial candidate and musician Nickolas Wildstar (L) is running on a left-Libertarian platform. Minister Floyd Harris (D), 2004 candidate Johnny Nelum (D), and left-wing activist Brian Jefferson (D) are all running as leftists. 2016 candidate Richard Renteria (D) and businessman (not that) Bill Gates (I) are also running; I can find little about either of them at all. The six could, however, draw enough scattered votes to send Dyer and Janz to a runoff. Overall, the leftward trend and lean of the city and Dyer’s personal appeal seem to be cancelling out. There is no clear favorite between Dyer and Janz; either could win or the minor candidates could send the race to a runoff.

Sacramento-Mayor (LRTT): California’s Capital, Sacramento has a population of 500K. It is among the nation’s most diverse cities, at 35% White, 25% Hispanic, 20% Asian, and 15% Black. Sacramento is an atypically middle-class city, without particularly large poor or upscale pockets. The downtown and eastern parts of the city are heavily White, while northern and southern parts of the city are diverse, with well-mixed populations. Befitting its status as the seat of the nation’s second-largest government, Sacramento is a bastion of establishment liberalism with a PVI of D+26. Incumbent Darrell Steinberg (D) is seeking a second term. A former State Senate President, Steinberg is an establishment liberal who has been in politics off-and-on for nearly three decades in local office and the legislature. His tenure as Mayor has been mostly successful and non-controversial, and he faces only two little-known opponents. 2016/18 congressional candidate Jrmar Jefferson (D) took 20% as the general election challenger to Rep. Doris Matsui (D) in 2018. He is running on a far-left platform but is little-known and underfunded. Similarly, businessman Mac Arteaga (D) is running as a mainstream liberal but also little-known and underfunded. Overall it would be a shock if Steinberg did not notch an easy first-round victory.

Bakersfield-Mayor (LRTT): Bakersfield is a city of 380K at the southern end of the Central Valley. Bakersfield is something of California’s Little Texas, with a heavily energy-based economy and conservative politics, with a PVI of R+6. The population is roughly 45% Hispanic, 40% White, and a 5% each Black and Asian. The southeast side of the city is heavily Hispanic and largely poor, while the north and west sides are White-majority and very conservative. Incumbent Karen Goh (R) is seeking a second term. Goh is an Indian immigrant who previously worked as a publishing executive. She is a mainstream establishment conservative, and her tenure leading the city has been regarded as successful. Goh faces two little-known opponents. 2018 State Senate candidate Gregory Tatum (R) also took sixth place and 2% in the Mayoral race four years ago before a third-place finish in a State Senate race two years ago. A minister and veteran, Tatum has been underfunded in all his runs and is not mounting a serious campaign this time. 2008 mayoral candidate Joseph Caporali (R) is an 88-year old who has been accused of grifting and has been married six times, including marriages he doesn’t remember. It would be a shock if Goh did not prevail easily.

Riverside-Mayor (LRTT): Riverside is the largest city in the Inland Empire with a population of 330K. It is roughly 50% Hispanic, 35% White, and 5% each Black and Asian. Riverside is generally lower-middle to middle-class and suburban in development pattern, without large poor or upscale pockets. The White population in the city is relatively Trumpist demographically, meaning the city is only a medium blue at D+8. The seat is open as centrist incumbent Rusty Bailey (I) is retiring after two terms. Six candidates are running, but only two are serious.

School board member Patricia Lock-Dawson (D) has served on the school board for eight years, and previously was appointed to the city’s zoning board. She is running as a moderate liberal, and has strong establishment support, including endorsements from Bailey, the moderate wing of local Dems, and some GOP crossover endorsements.

Councilman Andy Melendrez (D) has represented the city’s east side for 14 years. Melendrez is a bit to Lock-Dawson’s left, with support from area Dems’ more liberal wing, including Rep. Mark Takano (D). However, Melendrez is still a relatively moderate liberal, particularly on fiscal issues; he was notably supportive of an unsuccessful union-torpedoed effort to privatize the city’s garbage collection services.

The other four candidates are non-serious. 2016 city council candidate John Denilofs (I) was roundly criticized for racist remarks in that campaign, which he says were a publicity stunt. Businessman Rich Gardner (D), veteran Acea Stapler (D), and businessman Guy Harrell (R) all have little funding, name rec, or other notability, and seem non-serious. Overall, Lock-Dawson seems a very mild favorite over Melendrez, but Melendrez pulling the upset is very possible, as is the four non-serious candidates sending the race to a runoff.

Stockton-Mayor (LRTT): Stockton is a city of 310K in the Central Valley, with a diverse population that is roughly 40% Hispanic, 20% each White and Asian, and 10% Black. Stockton has for generations been California’s little version of a Rust-Belt basket case. Historically a poor agricultural center, Stockton experienced a massive boom in the 2000s when supercommuters from the Bay Area flooded in, inflating the housing bubble in the city arguably worse than anywhere in the nation. When the bubble burst in 2008, the city’s economy and budget were shattered and the city was forced to declare bankruptcy in 2012. It is now a largely poor to lower-middle-class city known for its high crime rate. Stockton’s south and east sides are very poor and Hispanic-majority, while the northern part of the city is more lower-middle-class and ethnically diverse. Stockton is heavily Democratic with a PVI of D+17, though it did have a GOP mayor before 2016.

Incumbent Michael Tubbs (D) is seeking a second term. Elected Mayor at the age of 26, Tubbs is unapologetic about seeking a higher national profile than Mayor of a poor midsize city – I said four years ago that he is the kind of person who has already written his 2037 Presidential Inaugural address, and that continues to be my assessment. He has become a favorite of progressives with his efforts to implement a Universal Basic Income program on the city level. In spite of the continued problems with crime and poverty in the city, Tubbs has succeed in overcoming the low bar of making some improvements from the city’s nadir at the start of the decade. That has been enough to keep most major challengers away, particularly on the Democratic side of the aisle.

Tubbs’s most serious challengers are a trio of Republicans. Minister and veteran Kevin Lincoln (R) was the GOP candidate in a deep-blue State Rep. seat covering most of the city in 2016, and served Bush 43 as an aide on the Marine One helicopter during his military career. He is running on a vague moderate conservative platform. Appointed county official Bill Smith (R) serves as facilities director for San Joaquin County. He is probably the most vocally conservative candidate in the field, particularly on public safety issues, but is still a mainstream conservative overall. Engineer Shoua Lo (R) is a Hmong immigrant from Laos who came to the country as a child after the Vietnam war. He is running as a moderate conservative.

The other four candidates in the race are largely non-serious. Ex-Stockton councilman Ralph White (D) served on the council in the 1980s and has been a longtime gadfly for city government, advocating for the city’s Black and working-class community. Though he is a successful businessman with a 7-figure net worth, White is a perennial candidate who refuses to self-fund or seriously fundraise in his campaigns. Though he is unlikely to be a major factor, he may take a couple points. Professor and 2008 candidate Motecuzoma Sanchez (R) is a vocal social conservative, which led to his nomination by then-Mayor Anthony Silva (R) to a city board being scuttled by the council. He is not running a particularly serious campaign this time. Two other candidates are essentially unknown and non-serious, filmmaker Shelly Hollis (D) and businessman Andrew Johnson (D).

Overall, in spite of the city’s problems, the weak field of challengers probably mean Tubbs is more likely than not to wrap the race up in one round. If his challengers are successful at forcing a runoff, Lincoln, Smith, or Lo could advance, and the second round will likely be competitive.

LA County Supervisors (LRTT): Los Angeles County Supervisors are known as the “5 Little Kings”, and the description is apt, as only the Mayors of NYC and maybe Chicago can lay claim to a local office with more extensive powers. The 5-member board has essentially unchecked authority over the government for a county of 10M, more populous than than most states. Additionally, the board historically grants broad discretion for supervisors within their districts. Three of the five seats on the board are up this year, for four-year terms, in a Louisiana Rules Top Two format.

CA-LAC-2 is a D+37 seat covering downtown LA, poor neighborhoods to the south and west, and a broad swath of mostly-slumburby areas north of the 405. This seat is Hispanic-majority, but has long been dominated by Black pols (even though Blacks are only around a quarter of the population). The seat is open as incumbent Mark Ridley-Thomas (D) is termed out. 7 Democrats are in the race, with 3 comprising the top tier.

LA Councilman Herb Wesson (D) has led in fundraising and has the official Dem endorsement. Wesson, who was previously State House Speaker in the early 2000s, has served 15 years on the city council, the last 9 of them as council president (selected by the council membership). Wesson is an establishment liberal with some bold progressive tendencies, in line with much of the district’s political establishment. Wesson has a plurality, but by no means all, of institutional support.

State Sen. Holly Mitchell (D) has served a decade in the legislature, representing about half the district for the last seven years in the State Senate. She is running as a bold progressive, a bit to Wesson’s left. Mitchell has strong institutional support from the party’s more progressive wing, including the endorsement of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). Thanks to a large transfer of funds from her legislative account, she has been second to Wesson in fundraising.

Ex-LA Councilwoman Jan Perry (D) is the final well-known candidate. Perry served twelve years on the city council before an unsuccessful 2013 Mayoral run, and has been out of office since then. She is quite moderate by California Democratic standards, being a mainstream liberal on cultural issues and a business-friendly moderate on fiscal issues. While she has had good fundraising and establishment support, she trails both Wesson and Mitchell on both counts.

The other four candidates are longer-shots. Attorney Jake Jeong (D) has a base in the Korean community around Koreatown at the district’s northern tip. He is running as a technocratic progressive, with a signature issue of being building prefab modular housing to combat homelessness. Jeong has run a serious campaign, but is still little-known and underfunded. Carson Mayor Albert Robles (D) (note – no relation to ex-South Gate Mayor and felon Albert T. Robles) has been mayor of the diverse middle-class suburb of 90K for four years. However, he is little-known outside his city, entered the race late, and has little funding. 2017 LA City Council candidate Jorge Nuno (D) is a businessman who took 23% against a city council incumbent three years ago. Nuno is running as a staunch leftist, probably the most left-wing candidate in the field, and could have some residual name recognition, but is poorly-funded and little known. Finally, teacher Rene Rigard (D) is running as a technocratic establishment liberal with an interesting niche issue of focusing on financial literacy, but is also little-known and poorly funded.

Overall, it seems likely that Wesson and Mitchell will advance to a runoff, though Perry may have a chance to snatch the second spot at Mitchell’s expense. The runoff will likely be highly competitive.

CA-LAC-4 is a D+17 Hispanic-plurality seat wrapping along the county’s southern border, from LAX along the coast south of the 405 to Long Beach, then north to take in the lower-middle-class southeast LA suburbs, and finishing in upscale parts of the San Gabriel Valley around Diamond Bar. Incumbent Janice Hahn (D) is seeking a second term. Hahn has been a longtime Heir Force pol as the daughter of the late longtime former supervisor Kenneth Hahn (D). She has had a long political career of her own, with stints on the LA City council and US House before running for the supervisor seat in 2016. Hahn was historically known as a mainstream establishment liberal with strong labor ties, but has moved in a somewhat more progressive direction since joining the board. The posture is a good fit for her increasingly liberal district and she is likely to easily win a second term. Hahn’s only opposition is little-known attorney Desiree Washington (D), who is not running a particularly serious campaign. It would thus be a shock if Hahn did not prevail easily.

CA-LAC-5 is an R-held D+11 White-plurality seat covering most of the county’s northern half, including the Antelope Valley, Santa Clarita, the northwest San Fernando Valley, and most of the foothill towns of the northern San Gabriel Valley from Burbank to the San Bernardino County border. Incumbent Kathryn Barger (R) is seeking a second term. A former top staffer for her predecessor, Barger is known as a moderate and has considerable Dem crossover support, including endorsements from LA Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) and several other prominent Dem pols. However, she is still a Republican in a liberal seat that is stampeding even further leftward, and thus two Democrats are vying to take her on this year. 2016 candidate and teacher Darrell Park (D) is mounting a second bid for the seat after losing to Barger by 18 points four years ago. He is running as a staunch bold progressive, particularly on cultural issues. He could benefit from residual name recognition, but his run four years ago was widely regarded as underwhelming, which has led most of the Democratic establishment to embrace his main rival. Sierra Madre Mayor John Harabedian (D) has strong Democratic institutional support, including endorsements from the county Dem Party and a majority of local Dem officials. He is also running as an upscale progressive, perhaps even to the left of Park. Overall, the biggest question here is whether Barger can win outright, or if her rivals will hold her to a competitive election. For now it looks like Barger is more likely than not to clinch the race this week, but a runoff is possible, and there is no clear favorite between Park and Harabedian for second.

Los Angeles County DA (LRTT): I will also say a few words about the Louisiana Rules Top Two primary for DA in Los Angeles County. Incumbent Jackie Lacey (D) is seeking a third term. Lacey is a former top deputy to ex-DA Steve Cooley (R) who has been an establishment liberal in her two terms. She has attempted to thread the needle between the new progressive focus on softening anti-crime policy and actually fulfilling her role as a prosecutor. Lacey has strong support from police unions and the more moderate side of the Democratic establishment. However, she has real vulnerability on her left flank as Democrats’ cultural politics have shifted, and two serious candidates are vying to take her on. San Francisco DA George Gascon (D) has carpetbagged to LA to run here. Gascon is a Cuban immigrant who has served as DA for a decade before abruptly resigning at the end of last year. In typical San Francisco tradition, Gascon has the official Democratic Party endorsement and broad support from left-wing and soft-on-crime groups, who accuse Lacey of being too close to police. Both Lacey and Gascon have fundraised well, with six-figure hauls. Finally, Public defender Rachel Rossi (D) is also running as a bold progressive and attempting to get even farther left of her rivals by emphasizing her defense work. However, Rossi’s fundraising has trailed her rivals and she has little establishment support. Overall, there is no clear favorite between Lacey and Gascon; either could win, or Rossi could draw enough votes to send them to a runoff, where Gascon will likely start out as the favorite as the anti-Lacey vote will have topped 50%.

March 3 Specials: Finally, next Tuesday is also a big day for legislative specials with 9 seats at stake, a Louisiana Rules Top Two first round in California and runoff in Georgia, generals in Arkansas, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, and primaries in Massachusetts.

CA-SD-28 is an R+2 seat covering the entire Coachella Valley and exurban areas in the Temecula Valley. Three Democrats and two Republicans are facing off. On the GOP side, State Rep. Melissa Melendez (R), considered one of the state GOP’s few remaining potential rising stars, has essentially unanimous establishment support and should be a strong favorite to take one spot in the runoff. However, an intraparty rival, realtor and veteran John Schwab (R), probably siphons off enough GOP votes to prevent Melendez from having any serious chance of topping 50% this week. On the Dem side, 2018 nominee Joy Silver (D), who narrowly lost this seat two years ago, has the official Dem party endorsement and the most name recognition, and is thus probably the favorite. School board member Elizabeth Romero (D), who is running on a somewhat more moderate platform, is also running a serious campaign and could upset Silver for the second slot. The third Dem, nurse and ultra-perennial candidate Anna Nevenic (D), has run for an office in every cycle since 1992 (!) across multiple states, never being a serious factor.

GA-SD-13 is a rural R+20 seat covering a broad swath of south-central Georgia east of Albany, including Tifton, Cordele, and Eastman. Developer Carden Summers (R), who narrowly lost a run for this seat way back in 2002, led ex-Leesburg Mayor Jim Quinn (R), who is seeking to fall upward after narrowly losing the runoff for a State House special last year, by a narrow 43-42 margin. There is obviously no clear favorite in the runoff.

AR-LD-22 is an R+23 (2012) covering suburbs and rural areas north of Hot Springs, centered around the nation’s largest gated community, Hot Springs Village (nearly half this seat’s population lives in said gated community). Judge and zoning board member Richard McGrew (R) should be a prohibitive favorite over a Libertarian opponent.

AR-LD-34 is a D+26 (2012) seat in urban Little Rock southwest of downtown, around the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. Former school board member Joy Springer (D), who also worked for the late prior incumbent’s law firm, won the primary runoff by a single vote, but is now the strong favorite in the special general over Roderick Talley (I), who lost a Democratic primary for an adjacent seat last year.

ME-LD-128 is a D-held R+5 seat covering most of the Bangor suburb of Brewer. Both sides have top-tier candidates. Republicans are running ex-State Rep. Garrel Craig (R), who ousted the late prior incumbent in 2016 and then lost a 2018 rematch by 4%. Democrats are running ex-Brewer Mayor Kevin O’Connell (D). As the GOP-friendly lean of the seat will likely be counterbalanced by Democratic presidential turnout, there is no clear favorite.

MA-LD-32nd Middlesex is a D+15 seat covering all of Melrose, the western half of Wakefield, and a small piece of Malden, all in the second-ring northern Boston suburbs. Melrose councilwoman Kate Lipper-Garabedian (D) is the heavy favorite over school support staffer Brandon Reid (R), who made the ballot as a primary write-in after no Republican filed.

RI-LD-56 is a D+34 seat covering most of the poor Hispanic-majority slumburb of Central Falls, northeast of Providence. Joshua Giraldo (D), CoS to the Mayor of Central Falls, is entirely unopposed for the seat.

Primaries:

MA-SD-Plymouth & Barnstable is an R-held D+2 seat around the base of Cape Cod, including the western quarter of the Cape and exurbs to the north around Plymouth. On the GOP side, 2018 AG nominee Jay McMahon (R) is facing off with businessman and veteran Jesse Brown; there is no clear favorite. Five Dems are running: Plymouth councilman John Mahoney (D), Falmouth councilwoman Susan Moran (D), ex-Hanson councilwoman and zoning board member Becky Coletta (D), zoning board member and 2016 State Rep. nominee Stephen-Michael Palmer (D), and law student and DA’s office administrative staffer Thomas Moakley (D). All five are serious and there is no clear favorite. The general election is likely to be competitive regardless of nominees.

MA-LD-3rd Bristol is an R-held D+4 seat covering the northwest 2/3 or so of the mill-town of Taunton and a chunk of the exurb of Easton to the north. Two Dems are facing off; school board member Carol Doherty (D) looks like a moderate favorite over car rental company exec Muzammil Nazir (D). The nominee will head to a competitive general with paralegal and state GOP official Kelly Dooner (R).

MA-LD-37th Middlesex is a D+14 seat covering mostly limousine-liberal northwest Boston exurbs along Route 2 around Harvard. Two Dems and Two Republicans are facing off. For Dems, Shirley town Dem chair Dina Samfield (D) looks like a slight favorite over legislative staffer Dan Sena (D). For Republicans, there is no clear favorite between nonprofit exec Malena Chastain (R) and realtor Cathy Clark (R). The Dem nominee will be a strong favorite in the general.