Models have lately been trending hurricane Irma to hit southern Florida, with a turn to the north, driving it through the center of the state as a Cat4 or Cat5 Hurricane. Hurricane expert, Dr. Ryan Maue notes:

“GFS 00z track shifted considerably to west. Regardless of intensity issues, still a plausible track & worst case scenario”

Indeed, it is a worst case scenario for Florida. Let us hope the model is wrong.

He adds:

Similar track from ECMWF 00z (w/input of aircraft recon data) as GFS. South Florida should closely monitor progress of Hurricane # Irma

And he adds most recently this morning:

Latest ensembles from U.S. GEFS model system continue trend west w/many solutions over south Florida & in eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Some other model output has much greater uncertainty. Dr. Roy Spencer notes on his Facebook page:

Latest GFS pushes Irma even farther west before turning north. It crosses Cuba, then goes north through the Keys and then roughly up the middle of Florida:

However, while shorter GFS model runs makes it look like Irma is headed right for south Florida, this longer forecast has it landing in Virginia, which would require a strong northward curve later this week–which GFS and NHC both discuss as likely. But EVERYONE in eastern Caribbean and entire US east coast south of, say, Massachusetts should be watching and preparing.

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