The U.S. presidential primary race is getting interesting — perhaps more interesting than it has been for the past 80 years or so. I’m talking about the Democratic primary, although the Republican side is usually interesting in its own special way. Beltway pundits are beginning to think that Bernie Sanders has a good shot at the nomination. And it may be even better than they think.

A New York Times/CBS poll released late Wednesday showed Hillary Clinton leading Sanders, 48 to 41 percent — down from a 20 point lead a month ago. Sanders showed a nearly 2-to-1 lead among voters under 45 years old. A Monmouth University poll released on Jan. 12 showed Sanders ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire by 14 percentage points (53 to 39). A Quinnipiac poll released the same day showed Sanders erased Clinton’s lead in Iowa and was ahead by 5 percentage points.

On the standard political story, victories in Iowa and New Hampshire could provide momentum for Sanders and change the dynamics of the race. But the way in which this happens is also important for understanding the present situation. The Iowa caucuses will be held on Feb. 1, just 18 days from now. New Hampshire Democrats will vote on Feb. 9. The voters in these contests are the ones who have been paying the most attention to the candidates and to the issues. And Sanders is leading in both of them. This means that the national polls, which still show Clinton in the lead, may be skewed by the lack of engagement of these voters. The numbers could change quickly once people get to know a little bit more about Clinton’s challenger.

This is what happened in 2008, when a freshman senator from Illinois named Barack Obama scored an upset victory against Clinton, whose nomination had been considered inevitable. In fact, two and a half weeks before the Iowa caucuses — which is where we are now, Obama was trailing Clinton by 6 points there and was about even in New Hampshire. And he was down by as much as 29 points to her nationally.

And at that time in the 2008 presidential primary race, Obama was not quite even with Clinton in South Carolina. But after he won Iowa and voters got a closer look at him, he beat Clinton there by 29 percentage points.

History could repeat itself, and it is clear from Clinton’s escalating criticisms of Sanders that she is worried about it. Another hefty chunk of déjà vu: MoveOn.org, one of the most powerful Internet grass-roots forces in the Democratic primary — or the country, for that matter — voted overwhelming on Sunday to endorse Bernie Sanders. MoveOn was a key player in the 2008 primary and mobilized tens of thousands of volunteers as well as money for Obama. With its endorsement this week, it has pledged to organize its 43,000 members in Iowa and 30,000 in New Hampshire. This could easily make the difference in Iowa, where 239,000 votes were cast in the 2008 caucuses (a record turnout).