4. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are probably the hardest team on this list to get a handle on. They’re 11–19, so going exactly .500 the rest of the way would get them to that magic 37-win barrier.

There’s a lot to like about these Lakers. Julius Randle has been a bit of a poor man’s Draymond Green, and D’Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram continue to flash uber-potential. Ingram was just a point and an assist away from becoming the youngest player in history to record a triple-double over the weekend. Those three and Jordan Clarkson have played the most minutes of any Lakers, which is great for the team’s development, but also explains the inconsistency so far. You have to love the job new head coach Luke Walton has done so far, and veterans Lou Williams and Nick Young have also been great.

The Lakers also have a hidden schedule advantage. They have just 11 games remaining against top-six teams (Warriors, Spurs, Cavs, Clippers, Rockets, and Raptors), the fewest of any of these would-be playoff contenders. That includes seven games played on their home court (thanks Clippers!), and they catch a break with two games against the Blake Griffin-less Clips over the next few weeks, too. The Lakers are 1–9 in their last 10 games, but they were also 10–10 before that, which is right on pace for what they might need to do to make the playoffs. Could they right the ship?

With a young team like this, any path is possibl, but advanced statistics make it look more likely that this young team overachieved early on than that they’re underachieving now. The Lakers have the second-worst point differential of any West team at -6.1, worse than the lowly Mavericks, and they’re the league’s second-worst rated defense. They’ve also played the most games of any team so far. Yes, the Lakers beat the Warriors, but half of the other wins are against the Suns, Kings, Pelicans, Nets, and 76ers.

On top of all that, if things go further south, the Lakers have a huge incentive to tank, as they keep their 2017 first-round pick only if it lands in the top three. L.A. is just as close to the worst record in the league as it is to the playoff hunt right now, just 2.5 games out of each “race.”

The Lake Show is back and the team is fun again, but they may need to wait another year to really get into the playoff hunt.

3. New Orleans

The Pelicans are 9–20, so they’d need to go 28–25 the rest of the way to hit 37 wins, and they have arguably one of the worst rosters in the entire league outside of the name at the top.

Ah, but what a magnificent name that is. Anthony Davis is averaging career highs in points (29.6), rebounds (10.9), assists (2.2), and steals (1.6), all at the tender age of 23. He’s the best player on any of these would-be West playoff teams, and he is reason enough to give the Pelicans a chance.

Well, technically he alone is not reason enough. A second teammate has been a real key to the Pelicans’ success: Jrue Holiday. Holiday has been terrific since returning from injury and the Pelicans have been far improved. New Orleans is 7–7 with both Holiday and Davis on the court — not exactly sterling, but a heck of a lot better than 2–13 without the pair.

If healthy, the Davis-Holiday duo puts the Pelicans right in the heart of the race for this 8-seed. New Orleans is tied with the Lakers for fewest remaining games for a would-be playoff contender against the NBA’s top six teams. They also have more games remaining against the East than any other West team, which means more travel but an easier slate of opponents.

The schedule is doable, and Davis has shown he can do anything. But even with him playing at a supernatural level, the team has only won one-third of its games with him on the court this year, and you have to worry that the injuries might return. (Let’s hope they do not.)

2. Minnesota

The Timberwolves are a paltry 7–19 right now, embarrassingly just a half-game better than Dallas and Philadelphia for the worst record in the NBA. They would need to go 30–26 the rest of the way to get to 37 wins — a 44-win pace that’s more than double what they’ve done so far. It’s a steep uphill climb.

But if any team can make that climb, wouldn’t you pick these young Wolves? Only 16 times in NBA history has a team had three players average 20 or more points a game. Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns are on pace to join that list, and each is just 21 years old. Towns just had 41 points, 15 rebounds, and five assists in a game against the Rockets, only the 27th time in modern history that feat has been accomplished. Of course, Minnesota lost that game, and therein lies the problems.

The Timberwolves continue to be terrible in one-possession games, victorious in just one of six such games so far. In the Rockets game above, Minnesota blew a 12-point lead with just over two minutes remaining, and lost in overtime. The Wolves also have been historically disastrous in the third quarters of games. Plus, for all that new coach Tom Thibodeau was supposed to bring to this team defensively, Minnesota has the fourth worst-defense in the league.

Defense takes time, and so does development. Minnesota’s defense should improve as its learns over the course of the season, and just about everyone on this team should improve overall as they grow. Rookie Kris Dunn, too, should get a larger role moving forward. For all their frustrations and struggles, the Wolves actually have a -3.0 point differential, better than Portland’s. There’s a good team hiding in there, or at least an average one.

If these 2016–17 Timberwolves are going to make a real run, we’ll likely know very soon. Just three of their next 10 games are against current playoff teams, and those teams are Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, and Portland. This is Minnesota’s softest stretch of the schedule all season. If the Timberwolves can get hot, they can still save this season.

1. Denver

The Nuggets appear to be the most likely team to steal the West’s 8-seed. Denver is now 11–16, just one game back of the Blazers, and they’d only need to go 26–29 the rest of the way to hit that 37-win mark. The Nuggets have a -2.1 point differential, eighth-best in the West, better than any other team on this list, including Portland.

The Nuggets are full of talent; they just haven’t quite figured out how to put it all together yet. Nikola Jokic is probably the best player on the team, yet he has only played the sixth-most minutes of any Denver player. Jokic finally is back in the starting lineup after an odd exploration of a two-big setup with Jusef Nurkic and then coming off the bench.

At this point, none of Jokic, Nurkic, Kenneth Faried, or rookie Jamal Murray even ranks among the top six Nuggets in minutes played per game. Those spots are occupied by veterans like Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Will Barton, all of whom are useful players on very nice contracts. The Nuggets have a lot of options here, enough to semi-withstand the usual injuries every team faces over an 82-game schedule, and enough to make a series of smaller moves or a big splash in the trade market if a star becomes available.

The Nuggets do have the most games remaining against the NBA’s top six, with 14, including a brutal stretch in mid-March with four of them in a row. They also catch a major break, though, as they get the Clippers three times in the next month without Blake Griffin, including Tuesday night in L.A.’s first such game adjusting to the latest period without its star forward.

Denver has the third-most remaining home games of any team in the NBA, one fewer than Boston and Sacramento. The Nuggets are 5–7 at home so far, but have a built-in homecourt advantage with the altitude, especially playing against teams on short rest. For a deep team like Denver, that advantage should only manifest further as the grueling season goes on.

The Nuggets are just now getting starting shooting guard Gary Harris back into the lineup, and he has looked good in limited action. He is one of eight different Nuggets shooting over 35 percent from behind the arc right now. Denver is young and should continue to get better as the season wears on, and it already has nearly a top-10 offense. The Nuggets are just 2–5 in one-possession games, so a little luck swinging their way could help, too.

The West 8-seed race appears to be wide open. Denver may not be a great team just yet, but the Nuggets could be the one to steal Portland’s playoff bid if the Blazers continue to struggle.