Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is arguably Donald Trump’s most critical ally and the Kentucky Republican gets to run for reelection in a state the president will win easily in November. But that doesn’t guarantee McConnell will win this fall.

It would take an unconventional strategy by Democrats to pull off the upset and make McConnell the first Senate party leader to lose reelection since 2004, when Republicans knocked off Democrat Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Though, in this case, McConnell gets to run with the partisan lean of his state.

Virtually all of the reasons Democrats around the country loathe the GOP leader are assets to a Republican running in Kentucky. Carrying the president’s water and reshaping the judicial system for a generation by confirming judges may help likely Democratic nominee Amy McGrath raise millions, but they are not liabilities for McConnell.

That’s why sober Democratic strategists admit that McGrath doesn’t have a chance of winning a majority of the vote in the general election in a state Trump won by 30 points in 2016. According to Inside Elections’ Baseline metric, which measures all partisan statewide and congressional races over the last four cycles, Republicans have a 57 percent to 42 percent advantage statewide.