Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Hornets ( -12.5 ) – O/U: 208

The Suns had the third-worst defensive rating in the month of February, so as long as this game stays competitive for four quarters, the Hornets are one of the top teams to target on the slate.

Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum and Courtney Lee should feast in their respective matchups; opposing teams in the NBA are ranking near the top of the league against the Suns’ point guards, shooting guards and small forwards respectively. The sledding gets a little tougher down low, but I’ll say that in the slightest sense. Marvin Williams has been on a roll of late, but you’ll see that we can find better power forward matchups on this slate.

PJ Tucker may be the only guy that I target from the Suns, but I’m not giving him a ringing endorsement.

Portland Trail Blazers ( -5.5 ) @ New York Knicks – O/U: 208

Damian Lillard will have a great game against the Knicks tonight. Jose Calderon draws a difficult matchup and always struggles a great deal against quick point guards. By the time all is said and done on this slate, Lillard could easily have the best night of the bunch.

CJ McCollum has shot 8-for-32 from the field, 2-for-10 from behind the arc, in the past two games but tonight could be a different story. The Knicks could be without Aaron Afflalo and that would be good news for McCollum. Not to mention, the Knicks are the third-worst team in the NBA over the last three weeks against shooting guards.

The only three guys that I like from the Knicks tonight are Kristaps Porzingis, Langston Galloway and Robin Lopez. If you’re wondering why you don’t see Carmelo Anthony on that list, it’s because Al-Farouq Aminu is a pretty damn good defender (see: Paul George on Sunday). Galloway is probably the first guy I’d target since the Trail Blazers are the fourth-worst team in the NBA against shooting guards in the last three weeks; he also had 27 FDP in his last game against the Heat. Lopez is a great option as well, but I do like another center on the board to do major damage tonight.

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat ( -5.5 ) – O/U: 200.5

Hassan Whiteside has only taken on the Bulls twice in his career (I know, hard to imagine), but he’s had two memorable performances, including a triple-double of 14 points, 13 rebounds and 12 blocks on Jan.25th, 2015. Also working in Whiteside’s favor, is the fact that the Bulls had the fifth-worst rebounding rate in the month of February. There is no magical serum that pops up each time the month on the calendar changes, so we should all expect a mega performance against the Bulls.

Goran Dragic has the best DvP matchup tonight, as the Bulls are third-worst in the NBA defending point guards on both the season and the last three weeks. Dwayne Wade had 45 FDP against the Bulls in his only meeting with them this season; I don’t expect 45, but around 33 should suffice tonight. Both teams have been playing at a higher pace than they’re used to, so along with Luol Deng, these would be the guys that stand to benefit the most.

I saw an alert on my phone at around noon that said, Derrick Rose – “I’m playing.” Oh ok, well that settles that. I’m never that eager to roster D-Rose, regardless of his usage rate without Butler in the lineup. Sure, if there’s a favorable matchup then I’ll fire him up, but tonight is not the night to do it. Typically, I like to see at least one game from players coming back from injury before I go and roster them, so tonight I will definitely hold true to that.

Pau Gasol should have a decent night, but I’m not willing to bet that he’ll have the best night of any center on the slate. For that matter, there’s not many other Bulls that I’m rostering tonight with Rose back in the lineup and the uncertainty for the rest of the roster.

Orlando Magic @ Dallas Mavericks ( -5.5 ) – O/U: 213

This game has the second-highest total on the slate, and the Mavs should be able to get it going against a Magic team that has given up at least 100 points in 10 of their last 12 games- an average of 109.3 PPG in that span.

The favorable matchup winners for the Mavs are Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons. While the statistics show the Magic in the middle of the pack defending point guards, Elfrid Payton consistently gives up big performances and D-Will went for 40.3 FDP when these teams faced 11 days ago. Parsons posted a similar 40.9 FDP in that same matchup and both guys should be right around there tonight.

Evan Fournier is considered doubtful for tonight’s game, so guys like Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon will have more of an advantage tonight. Mario Hezonja has played well at his near-minimum salary in his last two games, reaching 5x value in both, so he is certainly in play.

Nikola Vucevic was looking like one of the best centers in the NBA for most of February but he limped to the finish line at the end of the month. The Mavs rank 25th in the NBA against centers in the last three weeks so he may be able to finally get back up over 40+ FDP.

Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Lakers ( -2 ) – O/U: 211

The Nets continue their West Coast road trip in the same city they were in last night. However, their opponent tonight isn’t nearly as talented as the other LA team that calls Staples Center home. With that being said, the Nets have some of the best value plays on the board in this matchup against the Lakers.

Brook Lopez and Thad Young both have positive matchups, so they are the ones to target. We know the scoop on these guys and they’ll be heavily used for sure.

I sound like a broken record, but Bojan Bogdanovic sees a ton of minutes in the role that Joe Johnson left vacated. Last night, Bogey played 36 minutes and ended up scoring 26.7 FDP; he only scores actual points, and doesn’t garner many rebounds and assists. I have a theory that teams on the back-end of back-to-backs will rely heavily on their jump shooters instead of taking it to the bucket, so if this hold true, Bogdanovic could have another productive night at his minimum salary.

To make matters better (or worse, however you look at it), Wayne Ellington looks like he’ll be out and that should pave the way to the starting lineup for Markell Brown. He should play just under 30 minutes tonight, so give him a look.

The Nets point guards, Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin, could also be a great source of production as the Lakers are dead-last in the NBA against PGs and second-worst in the last three weeks.

For the Lakers, Kobe Bryant has been listed OUT so all the young gunners- D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle all see a boost in production. Russell is my favorite of the bunch, even though the Nets have improved somewhat against point guards in the last three weeks, but a lot of that has to do with their opponents. The rookie point guard has scored 31.1 and 37.8 FDP in his last two games, both against the Grizzlies, and his role is finally becoming more defined in this offense. Clarkson is my second favorite play since Randle’s matchup isn’t exactly the most positive one. The Nets have buckled down a little bit on defense of late, but they are still ranked 23rd in the NBA in terms of giving up fantasy points altogether.

How’s that for a Nets/Lakers breakdown? Probably the most words you’ll see about the game on the internet all day…

Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors ( -9.5 ) – O/U: 220.5

The reason why this article came out so late today is due to this game; thanks again, Hawks and Warriors. I wanted to get some more clarity on some of the injury news to Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala, but at post time, it doesn’t look like that’ll happen. Both guys are listed as questionable, but if they do play, it’s obviously Curry that I would go with.

As for the rest of this game, those injuries really put everything into question for the Warriors. If Curry plays, pretty much everyone gets a downgrade with the run he’s had of late. If he doesn’t play, then guys like Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut all get major bumps to their outlook tonight. Did you know, the Hawks were the #1 rated team in three-point differential for the month of February? That’s great and all, but it really doesn’t matter when you’re playing the Warriors. However, if they’re without Curry then that becomes an interesting factor to think about.

The Warriors are the fourth-worst team in the NBA defending point guards on the season and the last three weeks. I think a lot of changes if it’s Shaun Livingston that gets the start, but it certainly makes Jeff Teague and Denis Schroder look good before tip-off.

The Warriors are also fifth-worst in the NBA defending shooting guards, so Kyle Korver time? I wish I could say so, but he’s disappointed me so many times in the month of February. The matchup isn’t great for Kent Bazemore either, but I do like him in the up-tempo setting.

Al Horford went B-A-N-A-N-A-S for 66.2 FDP in the last meeting between these two teams a week ago. The Warriors do rank 24th in the NBA defending centers and 27th over the last three weeks, but I find it hard to believe he’ll hit that total again.

For what it’s worth, the Warriors haven’t played a home game since Feb.9, so I think they’ll be a lot more hyped up at the defensive end than they have been lately.