Get the latest Boro stories straight to your inbox with our daily newsletter Enter your email Thank you for subscribing See our privacy notice Invalid Email

Frustrated fans have spent the last few days sifting through the debris of Crystal Palace and Stoke, glancing anxiously at a damning league table and wondering why nothing has happened.

In the aftermath of a stinging set-back that set alarm bells ringing from Saltburn to Sedgefield, an agitated army of spooked supporters appeared to reach critical mass. The fans "had turned".

In a frenzied few days a consensus was reached that surely the boss was gone. Results had collapsed. The system was tactically bankrupt and the players had given up. Doomed Boro were definitely heading through the trapdoor unless there was imminent axe-wielding action. Surely it was only a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ the boss was sacked?

With rumours exploding across Teesside, Boro fans expected ruthless Steve Gibson to summon Aitor Karanka to Rockliffe and quietly open a drawer and reach for the pearl handled revolver.

But nothing happened. Why? What is going on? Why the silence?

Well there could be a lot of reasons why Steve Gibson has held his fire and held his nerve, not least because he doesn’t think change is necessary.

Let’s look at a few possible strands of thinking behind the scenes.

1. Boro’s top brass may not share the sense of crisis

After being sucked slowly downwards during a run of 10 games without a win, Boro finally slipped into the hot spots, sparking an eruption of angst among fans fearing the worst was now a certainty.

But the hierarchy may not react so violently. Boro went into the season expecting a struggle for survival. They will have planned for the possibility of being in the drop spots and how to handle it mentally and politically.

The club may have decided in advance that should they dip into the red zone they will hold fast no matter how the fans react.

(Image: PA)

2. They may believe Boro are still on track

Recent results have been poor, there is no escaping that. But Boro chiefs may believe that they are not that far short of where they “should be”.

Boro will have budgeted for a safety trajectory of about one point per game. That would yield 38 points in a division where most years 36 is enough.

And they will have targeted the games against sides in the bottom six or eight as being where they bank the precious points they need. So far they have taken 14 points from eight games in that mini-league and they have four more of those games to go.

Boro currently have 22 points from 27 games so they are slipping away from the projected curve.

But Gibson may have decided to stick with the strategy in the belief that Karanka can deliver in those games.

3. They may believe the team still back the manager

This is crucial. Players win games and so long as they are united, playing their best and fighting for each other, the shirt and the boss, the club may decide to hold course.

Palace was poor but could be partly explained by the late tactical switch. Stoke was worrying as the team looked limp and disunited. Ben Gibson pointed out not everyone was pulling their weight and without actually naming Gaston Ramirez it was quite clear where the problem was.

Dropping the faint-hearts and getting a motivated team out on the pitch and fighting for each other could be more productive than changes in the dug-out in the short term.

Players are always unhappy when not playing. Even the ones in the team will be cheesed off after such a long run of winless games. They may even be frustrated by the system and style.

But ultimately they want to be in the Premier League. They want to play for themselves and their mates. Club chiefs may believe that harnessing camaraderie is the key to escaping. All round to Grant’s house.

4. They may believe the crowd still back the manager

It is dangerous to assume that foam flecked white noise in cyberspace is representative of the general Boro public.

Yes, most fans - and probably the boardroom too - are worried about results, the lack of goals and the table but the gleeful gallows-building and demand for the axe on Twitter, Facebook and the phone-ins may be out of sync with the silent majority.

Boro have had a long, hard winter yet the fans have generally stayed right behind the team and the boss.

There was a similar upsurge of intense online opposition insisting there was no way back after last season’s dressing room bust-up yet that was followed by a spirited show of support from loyalists at Charlton and an impressive display of unity in the galvanising home win over Hull.

The top brass may believe the current dissent is similar, an instinctive short-term surface reaction that masks a more solid and sober support for the regime.

5. They may believe change is a bigger risk

Aitor Karanka has built his own backroom staff: coaches, conditioning staff, analysts, scouts. There will be a complex universe of personal loyalty and patronage that comes with that.

Boro chiefs may think that removing the manager will cause disruption throughout the delicate eco-system of the club.

Would they need to axe whole swathes of crucial training ground and matchday staff if the boss goes? Could they all be relied on if their mentor left? Could they be replaced quickly by quality experienced staff? Would a new boss want them?

Radical regime change can be managed easily over a summer, not so easily on the hoof.

Video Loading Video Unavailable Click to play Tap to play The video will start in 8 Cancel Play now

6. It may be a question of timing

A decision may well have been made. A process may already be under way. We don’t know. But the top brass may want to make any change at time that can minimise disruption at a key stage of the season.

Boro have a big FA Cup tie on Saturday that has a massive potential prize but won’t impact on the financially more important battle to stay in the Premier League. After that Boro play Manchester United, a game where they will be underdogs.

After that there is a two-week international break before Boro’s ‘week of destiny’ and the potentially decisive games against Swansea, Hull and Burnley. That fortnight offers an opportunity for a relatively smooth transition and bedding in period.

That would give any new manager time to get to know the squad and staff, hammer home his own key messages and work on any tactical tweaks ahead of the crunch clashes.

7. There may be no available viable alternatives

It is easy to throw names around. There is no shortage of unemployed managers, many who would walk to Rockliffe barefoot to work at such a good club and for such a supportive chairman. But they may not be the men Gibson wants.

Boro have spent several years now building a European style infrastructure at the club with a scouting and scientific training model and they won’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

And the club have also invested heavily in time and money to create a squad in a certain image, with particular strengths and to play in a distinct style. Whoever comes in now will find their hands tied tactically to some extent.

(Image: @BEMBIBRE3 / TWITTER)

But Boro are a long-term project. And recruiting the right senior staff is crucial for continuity. As with Southampton, the club will have long have had a shortlist of people who would be suitable successors. But the right men may not be available now.

It is not out of the question that a new manager may have been sounded out already - for next season. Boro bosses may be more inclined to wait to get the right man than rush into a compromise now.

8. Steve Gibson values loyalty and integrity

The chairman has been accused of excessive loyalty in the past, although it is not the worst trait to have.

Gibson stood by Bryan Robson after relegation and initially with Gareth Southgate too. He stood by Steve McClaren despite his flirtations elsewhere and long after large sections of the crowd had turned and was rewarded for it.

And he has stuck with Aitor Karanka despite the Lost Weekend, almost a year ago exactly, and through a string of outrages from fans over transfer policy and the odd sly dig at supporters as well as the boss’s coded criticisms of the club over recruitment.

There will be a limit to that of course. The chairman is a hard-nosed businessman and has been ruthless when needed but he also prizes loyalty, integrity and honesty. If he has given Karanka his word that he will get the season he may will feel bound to that.