With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.

Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead.

These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.

Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge.

Let's go to the data...

First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 86% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.

On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds are now at 66%, where they've been for the last week or so.

And, on Betfair, Obama's odds are creeping up toward 80%.

In short, in everything but some of the national polls, Obama has a strong lead heading into the last day of the race.

SEE ALSO: Yes, Nate Silver Is Betting The Farm

