After one of the strangest promotion campaigns I’ve seen as an FC-fan, Cologne is back in the Bundesliga. (Effzeh.com has a brillant and in-depth review of last season: Check it out!) Markus Anfang was fired just days before the promotion was finalized after some terrible weeks, there were troubles in the club’s leadership, but there were also excellent win streaks and Terodde and Cordoba scored goals en masse. But that’s all in the rear view mirror, let’s look ahead!

First of all, the personnel situation: Cologne basically did not lose any player they wanted to keep. Geis’ contract was not renewed, Guirassy is sold after his loan spell, and Lehmann retired. Jannes Horn, Fredrik Soerensen, snd Matthias Bader seem to be clear candidates to leave the club as well (which is a pity for at least Horn and Soerensen from my point of view). Any players wanting to leave have already left after the disastrous 17/18 season (Heintz, Bittencourt etc.). One other player who seems to have a hard time at the moment is Salih Öczan. It would be a real pity (and a terrible signal) if he – as a Cologne youth product, U20 national team captain and so on – would just be sold. I hope there will be a beneficial solution for club and player.

In terms of new players, Cologne was fairly active: Kingsley Ezihibue as right back, Birger Verstraete and Ellyes Skhiri for CDM, and Kingsley Schindler as left (or right) wing. The club is on record that they are still looking for a (left-footed) central defender as well. All these transfers add speed and physicality while addressing specific needs, so well done so far. Of course the (probably) most important new guy is the coach: Beierlorzer played a very aggressive 4-4-2 in Regensburg, I assume he’ll stick to the same approach here. With the new players, this is actually a realistic formation.

This starting eleven leaves out promotion heroes Terodde (29 goals, 4 assists) and Drexler (9 goals, 14 assists) sp might be a little surprising to say the least. I just think Cordoba is a lock with his workrate and excellent form and Modeste edges Terodde for the moment. I am not sure where Drexler is supposed to fit into Berierlorzer’s system. Left midfield (though he lacks speed to a typical winger) or even central midfield (then more like an 8 or even classical 10). This is a very tough decision on the one hand, but shows the depth (on attack!) on the other hand. Risse, Clemens are additional options for the wings. In central midfield, Koziello can be used as a more passing / attacking option, the new guy Skhiri would be a speed upgrade over Höger but will miss large parts of the preseason due to playing the Africa Cup semifinal with Tunisia.

More problems are in the back 4. Sobiech is a solid alternative for central defense (but struggled mightily in preseason so far), Schmitz for right back. Left back only has youngsters Katterbach and Jakobs to spell Hector (assuming Jannes Horn is really out). That’s, well, pretty thin overall. Timo Horn also had a pretty mixed season last year, I’d have loved to see some actual alternative instead of only Kessler again. (Cologne did sign youth keeper Krahl from RB Leipzig, so maybe he will be the answer.)

Overall, I am fairly optimistic. At least some of the issues of last season were addressed (starting with a new coach): Right back and speed in defensive midfield. What’s missing is another central defender to add some height for defensive set pieces (Sobiech would help, but has other weaknesses). The season will be long and tough, but I actually think Cologne has the potential to be a positive surprise this season.

Title odds: 301:1

Relegation odds: 3.5:1

Final expected finish: 12 (Hopefully I didn’t jinx it now…)

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