The number of states that are “hostile” to abortion rights has doubled in the past decade, according to a new analysis from the Guttmacher Institute. It finds that since 2000, the number of states with more than three abortion restrictions — states they term “hostile” to access — has grown from 13 to 26.

Most of that movement was concentrated in “middle-ground” states, those that went into the decade with one or two restrictions already on the books. Between 2000 and 2011, 12 of those states passed new restrictions and moved from “middle-ground” to “hostile.”

Over the past decade, abortion-rights opponents have seen significant success in middle-ground states. A lot of that happened in 2011, when states passed a record-breaking 92 laws restricting abortion access.

All that success, however, leaves the pro-life movement with an odd sort of challenge. If it’s already conquered the middle-ground states, and if the supportive states won’t budge, where can it pass restrictions in 2012?

I put this question to Mary Spaulding Balch, who directs state legislation for the National Right to Life Committee. She worked on many of the abortion restrictions last year and does see room for success in 2012.

“There’s still states where we have pro-life majorities and governors, where we expect to have additional wins this year,” says Balch.

Where that activity happens, however, might be different: Instead of middle-ground states becoming increasingly hostile, it’s likely states that already have many restrictions will add even more. Balch points to restrictions in Georgia, Idaho and South Dakota as examples.

At the same time, Balch doesn’t necessarily expect the same number of legislative victories she saw last year. For one thing, a lot of legislation they wanted to see succeed already moved in 2011. “We were a focus, and we’re happy with what happened,” she says. “We understand if they have other pressing issues. We can continue with our agenda while understanding we might not necessarily have as much success this year.” She gets some sign that legislators are now “pressed to deal with the fiscal issues.”

Another mitigating factor could be the presidential election. Balch has worked on pro-life lobbying for about two decades and says that, in election years, legislators tend to dial down the debate on controversial issues.

I asked Balch whether she thought the backlash to the Virginia ultrasound law last month might give state legislators pause before pursuing similar restrictions. If it will, Balch says she hasn’t seen it yet. A few hours before we spoke, Idaho had just moved a similar restriction through a senate committee on a 7-2 vote.

“You never know,” she says. “You’re dealing with human beings and anything can happen. But we were pleased to see the Idaho bill get out of the Senate. Even though there were people from both sides, very visibly present, the bill got out. That makes us optimistic.”