We are just under two months until the committee announces the field of 68 for this year’s NCAA Tournament. The ACC figures to be well represented in March, and could see anywhere from eight to eleven teams dancing come March. With so many possible tournament teams in the conference, everyone has the opportunity to build their case for why they belong in the field. Now that the conference schedule is a third over, the NCAA tournament is beginning to come into focus, and I figured it was time to take a look at each team’s resume so far.

For clarity’s sake, I classified a “quality win” as a win over a team that ranks in the top-50 in each the RPI, KenPom, and Sagarin ranking. A “bad loss” is a loss to any team outside the top-100 in the three rankings. All rankings are updated through games played on 1/19/2017.

Locks

Notre Dame 16-3 (5-1): RPI: 20th KenPom: 22nd Sagarin: 21st

Quality Wins: Northwestern (N), Louisville (H), Clemson (H)

Bad Losses: None

The Fighting Irish got out to a fast start picking up a pair of neutral court wins over Colorado and Northwestern in the Legends Classic. A week later Notre Dame dismantled Iowa and went into a matchup with Villanova with an undefeated record. The Irish played tough but lost their first game of the season, which was quickly followed by their second loss to Purdue a week later. In ACC play, Notre Dame won their first five games before falling on the road to Florida State last night. The win over Louisville proved that the Irish are here to stay this season, and could be in the conversation for a four-seed in the Big Dance.

Florida State 17-2 (5-1): RPI: 9th KenPom: 18th Sagarin: 17th

Quality Wins: Minnesota (H), Florida (H), Wake Forest (H), Virginia (A), Duke (H), Notre Dame (H)

Bad Losses: None

Florida State had a solid non-conference schedule and picked up wins over Illinois, Minnesota, and Florida, while only losing to Temple in the first game of the NIT Tip-Off. In conference play, the Seminoles have been even better with home wins against Wake, Virginia Tech, Duke, and Notre Dame as well as a victory at Virginia. Florida State’s only ACC loss this season was to North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Seminoles will play their sixth straight ranked opponent on Saturday when they host Louisville. After that, Leonard Hamilton’s crew will get an easy stretch (by ACC standards) with games at Georgia Tech, Miami, and Syracuse followed by home games against Clemson and N.C. State. If the Seminoles take care of business in that five-game stretch they will put themselves in fantastic position for a one-seed and shouldn’t see anything worse than a three on Selection Sunday.

Louisville 16-3 (4-2): RPI: 8th KenPom: 8th Sagarin: 7th

Quality Wins: Wichita State (N), Purdue (H), Kentucky (H), Indiana (H), Duke (H), Clemson (H)

Bad Losses: None

The Cardinals played one of the most ambitious non-conference schedules in the nation, and came away with wins over Wichita State, Purdue, Indiana, and arch-rival Kentucky. The lone loss before ACC play for Rick Pitino’s squad was to Baylor in the final of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Louisville opened ACC play with a pair of losses to Virginia and Notre Dame before bouncing back with three straight wins, including last Saturday’s victory over Duke. As long as the Cardinals handle their business, they should be in line for a two or three-seed come March.

North Carolina 17-3 (5-1): RPI: 11th KenPom: 6th Sagarin: 3rd

Quality Wins: Wisconsin (N), Indiana (A), Clemson (A), Wake Forest (A), Florida State (H)

Bad Losses: None

The Tar Heels started the season on a seven-game winning streak that was capped off by a dominating win over Wisconsin. However, North Carolina fell in their very next game on the road at Indiana. The Tar Heels lost their second game of the season when they fell to Kentucky in Las Vegas. Georgia Tech shocked UNC and provided a wake-up call in their conference opener. Since then, the Tar Heels have won five straight including a victory over Florida State. North Carolina is in the softest part of their conference schedule now with four straight unranked foes, but follow that up with six of their final eight games against a ranked opponent. The Tar Heels are another team that will be in the running for a top seed after earning a one-seed last year and making a run to the Finals.

Virginia 14-3 (4-2): RPI: 17th KenPom: 5th Sagarin: 7th

Quality Wins: Louisville (A), Wake Forest (H), Clemson (A)

Bad Losses: None

The top rated defense of Virginia allows the Cavaliers to suffocate almost every team they have gone up against. This year the Cavs have picked up wins over Iowa, Providence, Ohio State, and California while holding them to an average of 51.5 ppg. The lone non-conference loss that Virginia suffered was at the hands of a very good West Virginia team. The Cavaliers opened ACC play with a bang when they went on the road and beat Louisville before dropping a pair of games to Florida State and Pittsburgh. Virginia has a chance to make a late non-conference splash when they travel to Philly to take on Villanova. A win there gives the Cavs a signature non-conference win, and would put them in position for a two seed.

Duke 14-4 (2-3): RPI: 16th KenPom: 11th Sagarin: 8th

Quality Wins: Michigan State (H), Florida (N)

Bad Losses: None

Duke delt with a lot of injuries to begin the season and fell to Kansas in an early season matchup between blue bloods. The Blue Devils wouldn’t lose again until conference play and picked up wins over Rhode Island, Michigan State, and Florida. Duke has struggled on the road so far this season and has lost at Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Louisville in ACC play. The Blue Devils must prove they can beat someone of note in conference and must also prove they can be successful away from the cozy confines of Cameron. While Duke may have more talent than anyone else in the nation, they have yet to live up to it consistently this season. With so many other ACC teams vying for top seeds it will be difficult for the Blue Devils to be seeded any higher than a four in March.

Work Left To Do

Virginia Tech 14-4 (3-3): RPI: 52nd KenPom: 51st Sagarin: 50th

Quality Wins: Duke (H)

Bad Losses: None

The Hokies had their best non-conference ever, winning eleven of their first twelve games with their only loss coming to Texas A&M. Wins over Nebraska, Michigan, and Ole Miss highlight a good, but not great non-conference schedule. Virginia Tech opened conference play on a high note with a win over Duke, which elevated the Hokies into the top 25 for the first time all season. The Hokies must finish the season with a .500 record in ACC play if they want to make the Big Dance. With only four games against ranked opponents remaining, Tech should find a way to achieve that task and qualify for their first NCAA Tournament since 2007.

Clemson 11-7 (1-5): RPI: 41st KenPom: 33rd Sagarin: 35th

Quality Wins: Georgia (H), South Carolina (A), Wake Forest (H)

Bad Losses: None

Clemson looked very good in the non-conference portion of the schedule and picked up wins against Georgia, Nebraska, Alabama, and South Carolina. The Tigers opened ACC action with a win over Wake Forest before losing five in a row. Four of those five losses came at the hands of ranked teams, but with only three more games against ranked opponents on the schedule the Tigers should be able to pile up enough wins to earn their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2011.

Miami 12-5 (2-3): RPI: 79th KenPom: 34th Sagarin: 33rd

Quality Wins: None

Bad Losses: None

The Hurricanes rolled through a lack luster non-conference schedule with the only win of note being over a mediocre Stanford team in the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational. Miami lost the next two games of the event to Iowa State and Florida. In conference play, Miami has gotten out to a slow start and sits at 2-3 through five ACC contests with losses to Syracuse and Wake Forest. The Canes’ biggest issue is the lack of a signature win to hang their hat on, but with seven more games against ranked teams on the schedule, Miami will have plenty of opportunities to pick up that win. In the end, I believe Miami will get about a nine side in the NCAA Tournament if they can pick up a win that can catch the eye of the committee.

On The Bubble

Pittsburgh 12-7 (1-5): RPI: 39th KenPom: 63rd Sagarin: 59th

Quality Wins: Maryland (A), Virginia (H)

Bad Losses: Duquesne (H)

The Panthers got off to a very good start this season picking up early wins over a decent Marquette team as well as a solid Maryland team on the road. Coming off of the Maryland win, Pitt stumbled and lost to Duquesne before winning their next five games. Pittsburgh lost in overtime to Notre Dame to open conference play, then bounced back with an overtime win over Virginia in their very next game. Since then, the Panthers have lost four straight, allowing nearly 80 PPG. In order to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, Pittsburgh is going to have to finish strong in conference play. Right now it is hard to picture Pitt in the Big Dance this season, but in the first year of a new coach’s tenure, things are looking up and it shouldn’t take the Panthers long to get back to the Big Dance.

North Carolina State 13-6 (2-4): RPI: 53rd KenPom: 76th Sagarin: 69th

Quality Wins: None

Bad Losses: Boston College (A)

The Wolfpack played an incredibly easy non-conference schedule and struggled to put away some of the lesser opponents on it. N.C. State had a lot of players in and out of the lineup early in the year so it is easy to forgive them for inconsistencies at this point in the year. Mark Gottfried’s team hasn’t done themselves any favors in conference play and has lost to both Boston College and Georgia Tech already this year. The inability to stop their opponents from scoring has been the Wolfpack’s greatest weakness, with ACC opponents averaging 83.3 PPG when they play N.C. State. With this kind of defense, N.C. State is on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season.

Wake Forest 11-7 (2-4): RPI: 28th KenPom: 36th Sagarin: 45th

Quality Wins: None

Bad Losses: None

The Demon Deacons are an interesting case in which while the computer ratings favor them, they completely fail the eye test. Wake’s best non-conference win this season was over LSU, while the Deacs only lost to quality opponents such as Villanova, Xavier, and Northwestern. Wake still isn’t at a level where they can consistently compete in the ACC, and will quickly fall out of the picture as the season advances. However, with so much youth on the roster don’t be surprised to see Wake push for a spot in the Big Dance next season.

Better Luck Next Year

Syracuse 11-8 (3-3): RPI: 134th KenPom: 53rd Sagarin: 48th

Quality Wins: None

Bad Losses: St. John’s (H), Boston College (A)

A year after sneaking into March Madness and making a run to the Final Four, the Orange came into the season with high expectations after picking up a trio of contributors over the summer. Unfortunately, the team has struggled with chemistry and has lost head-scratchers to UConn, Georgetown, St. John’s, and Boston College. While the Orange have looked good in spurts in ACC play, it will not be enough to get them to the NCAA Tournament. Jim Boeheim is expected back for one more season in Syracuse next year and will look to go out with at least a tournament appearance.

Georgia Tech 11-7 (3-3) RPI:97th KenPom: 104th Sagarin: 81st

Quality Wins: North Carolina (H)

Bad Losses: Ohio (H)

The Yellow Jackets had a lackluster non-conference that was highlighted by an overtime win against VCU. Outside of that, Josh Pastner’s club struggled against higher quality teams. While Georgia Tech made a big splash in their conference opener when they beat down North Carolina, they have not shown the talent or consistency of a NCAA Tournament team. All four of Georgia Tech’s top scorers should be back next season which will give the Yellow Jackets a very solid core going forward.

Boston College 9-10 (2-4): RPI: 178th KenPom: 166th Sagarin: 148th

Quality Wins: None

Bad Losses: Nicholls State (H), Richmond (H), Harvard (H), Hartford (H), Fairfield (H)

This season has brought both highs and lows to the Eagles as they have looked good at times such as in wins against Auburn, Providence, Syracuse, and N.C. State. On the other hand, they have lost to some terrible teams this season such as Nicholls State, Hartford, and Fairfield. The Eagles have already won more games this year than they did all of last year, and are certainly moving in the right direction. While Boston College won’t be participating in any postseason tournaments this year, they have a good young core moving forward and should no longer be circled as an easy win.