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Fantasy Football WR Target Analysis

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Donte Moncrief led all wide receivers in targets with 15. Antonio Brown accounted for 45 percent of the Steelers target share. John Brown led all wide receivers in Air Yards with 209. Davante Adams (151), Moncrief (186), Odell Beckham (196), and DeAndre Hopkins (201) were the only other receivers with 150 or more Air Yards. Sammy Watkins (2.0) led all receivers with eight or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Brown (1.01) had the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Other notable wide receivers with high WOPRs in Week 5 include Hopkins (0.91), A.J. Green (0.85) and Beckham (0.81). You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will highlight one player per tier that is projected to see significant target volume that could result in a big Week 6 performance.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 1 Donte Moncrief JAX 5 15 6 76 13.6 2 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 5 14 8 131 31.4 2 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 5 14 9 72 16.2 2 John Brown BAL 5 14 4 58 9.8

John Brown is currently the WR22 in PPR formats and has established himself as the top receiving option in Baltimore. He is currently leading all wide receivers in Air Yards per game. Brown has a high floor and even higher ceiling. He can be considered a high-end WR2 every week.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 5 Antonio Brown PIT 5 13 6 101 28.1 5 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 5 13 9 151 22.1 7 Davante Adams GB 5 12 9 140 29 7 Michael Crabtree BAL 5 12 6 66 12.6 7 Pierre Garcon SF 5 12 5 47 9.7

It was nice to see Brown return to form last week with his first 100 yard game of the season. He has negative receiving fantasy points over expectation entering Week 6. This suggests Brown has not been able to maximize the target volume he has been given so far this season. He continues to have a high floor and the potential to finish as the top wide receiver this week as the Steelers face the Bengals.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 10 Stefon Diggs MIN 5 11 10 91 21.6 10 Chester Rogers IND 5 11 8 66 14.6 12 Adam Thielen MIN 5 10 7 116 24.6 12 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 5 10 7 68 19.8 12 AJ Green CIN 5 10 6 112 17.2 12 Keelan Cole JAX 5 10 4 70 11 12 Jarvis Landry CLE 5 10 5 69 11.9

This was Chester Rogers has had double-digit targets in two consecutive games due to the absence of T.Y. Hilton. He has led the Colts in targets and receiving yards over the last two weeks. It remains to be seen if Hilton will return this week against the Jets.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 17 Kenny Golladay DET 5 9 4 98 19.8 17 Cooper Kupp LAR 5 9 6 90 21 17 Keenan Allen LAC 5 9 8 90 17.5 17 Julio Jones ATL 5 9 5 62 11.2 17 Ryan Grant IND 5 9 6 58 11.8 17 Julian Edelman NE 5 9 7 57 12.7

Julian Edelman averaged 9.7 targets and 69.6 receiving yards per game from 2013 to 2017. This target volume was right in line with his averages during that time frame. Edelman can be viewed as a low-end WR2 in PPR formats against the Chiefs this week in a matchup that has the highest projected point total so far this season.

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Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 23 Trent Taylor SF 5 8 7 61 19.1 23 Sammy Watkins KC 5 8 6 78 13.8 23 Jamison Crowder WAS 5 8 4 55 9.5 23 Maurice Harris WAS 5 8 3 47 7.7 23 Alshon Jeffery PHI 5 8 2 39 5.9

Alshon Jeffery essentially picked up where he left off last season. He has accumulated 17 targets in Week 4 and Week 5.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 28 Robert Woods LAR 5 7 5 92 19.5 28 Mohamed Sanu ATL 5 7 4 73 17.3 28 Keke Coutee HOU 5 7 6 51 17.3 28 Tyreek Hill KC 5 7 4 61 12.7 28 Sterling Shepard NYG 5 7 4 75 11.5 28 Willie Snead BAL 5 7 5 55 10.5 28 Devin Funchess CAR 5 7 4 53 9.3 28 Tyler Boyd CIN 5 7 4 44 8.4 28 Golden Tate DET 5 7 5 42 9.2 28 Seth Roberts OAK 5 7 4 41 8.1 28 Kendrick Bourne SF 5 7 4 33 7.3 28 Zach Pascal IND 5 7 1 12 2.2

Tyreek Hill is averaging 7.8 targets this season and should meet or exceed that number against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fourth most Air Yards this season.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 40 Demaryius Thomas DEN 5 6 5 105 21.5 40 Courtland Sutton DEN 5 6 2 18 9.8 40 Corey Davis TEN 5 6 4 49 8.9 40 Albert Wilson MIA 5 6 5 43 9.3 40 Jarius Wright CAR 5 6 3 25 5.5 40 Chad Williams ARI 5 6 2 23 4.3

Demaryius Thomas (13) and Courtland Sutton (12)have seen similar target volume over the last two weeks.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 46 Robby Anderson NYJ 5 5 3 123 27.3 46 Tyler Lockett SEA 5 5 3 98 19.4 46 Equanimeous St. Brown GB 5 5 3 89 11.9 46 Michael Thomas NO 5 5 4 74 11.4 46 Derrick Willies CLE 5 5 3 61 9.1 46 Dede Westbrook JAX 5 5 3 55 8.5 46 Cameron Meredith NO 5 5 5 71 10.1 46 Paul Richardson WAS 5 5 4 50 9 46 Calvin Ridley ATL 5 5 4 38 7.8 46 Antonio Callaway CLE 5 5 3 22 5.2 46 Chris Conley KC 5 5 2 21 4.1 46 Kenny Stills MIA 5 5 2 17 3.7 46 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 5 5 1 11 2.1 46 Taywan Taylor TEN 5 5 3 30 4 46 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 5 5 0 0 0

Antonio Callaway has accumulated 24 targets and 378 Air Yards over the last three weeks. He has struggled with drops and is unlikely to go boom against the Chargers secondary, but has the potential to be a fantasy difference maker the second half of the season.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 61 David Moore SEA 5 4 3 38 18.8 61 Christian Kirk ARI 5 4 3 85 18 61 Rashard Higgins CLE 5 4 3 66 15.6 61 Josh Gordon NE 5 4 2 50 13 61 Jordy Nelson OAK 5 4 4 43 14.3 61 Curtis Samuel CAR 5 4 2 37 11.7 61 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT 5 4 4 34 13.4 61 Marvin Jones DET 5 4 1 8 7.8 61 D.J. Chark JAX 5 4 2 68 8.8 61 D.J. Moore CAR 5 4 4 49 10.7 61 Russell Shepard NYG 5 4 3 52 8.2 61 Mike Williams LAC 5 4 3 45 7.8 61 Nelson Agholor PHI 5 4 4 45 8.5 61 Chris Hogan NE 5 4 3 34 6.4 61 Tajae Sharpe TEN 5 4 3 30 6 61 Danny Amendola MIA 5 4 3 30 6 61 Jawill Davis NYG 5 4 2 27 4.7 61 Laquon Treadwell MIN 5 4 3 21 5.1 61 Zay Jones BUF 5 4 3 20 5 61 Deonte Thompson DAL 5 4 2 19 3.9 61 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 5 4 1 14 2.4 61 Victor Bolden Jr. SF 5 4 1 10 2

This is simply a gentle reminder that JuJu Smith-Schuster has averaged 10.6 targets per game this season.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 83 Tre’Quan Smith NO 5 3 3 111 26.1 83 Martavis Bryant OAK 5 3 3 91 10.1 83 Tyrell Williams LAC 5 3 3 66 9.6 83 Allen Hurns DAL 5 3 1 3 7.3 83 Josh Reynolds LAR 5 3 2 39 6.9 83 Daesean Hamilton DEN 5 3 3 44 7.4 83 Tavon Austin DAL 5 3 1 44 5.4 83 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 5 3 2 35 5.5 83 Phillip Dorsett NE 5 3 3 25 5.5 83 Marvin Hall ATL 5 3 2 25 4.5 83 Alex Erickson CIN 5 3 3 24 5.4 83 Will Fuller HOU 5 3 2 15 3.5 83 Cole Beasley DAL 5 3 1 8 1.8 83 Michael Gallup DAL 5 3 1 6 1.6

The Cowboys have five wide receivers with double-digit targets this season. Did you know that Tavon Austin leads the Cowboys wide receivers in fantasy points this season with 48 and 198 Air Yards?

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 97 Cordarrelle Patterson NE 5 2 2 11 9.1 97 Marcus Johnson IND 5 2 2 26 4.6 97 Chris Moore BAL 5 2 1 20 3 97 Austin Carr NO 5 2 2 17 3.7 97 Andre Roberts NYJ 5 2 1 4 1.4 97 Andre Holmes BUF 5 2 0 0 0 97 James Washington PIT 5 2 0 0 0

James Washington has the third most Air Yards (237) on the Steelers, but is not seeing enough target volume to be fantasy relevant. Antonio Brown (0.30) and Smith-Schuster (0.25) continue to dominate the team’s target share. If one of them were to miss an extended period of time then Washington would immediately become fantasy relevant.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 104 Terrelle Pryor NYJ 5 1 1 20 9 104 Shelton Gibson PHI 5 1 1 48 5.8 104 Khadarel Hodge LAR 5 1 1 14 2.4 104 De’Anthony Thomas KC 5 1 1 13 2.3 104 Amari Cooper OAK 5 1 1 10 2 104 Richie James SF 5 1 1 7 1.7 104 Darius Jennings TEN 5 1 1 6 1.6 104 Tim Patrick DEN 5 1 1 6 1.6 104 Brian Quick WAS 5 1 1 6 1.6 104 Ryan Switzer PIT 5 1 1 5 1.5 104 Ray-Ray McCloud BUF 5 1 1 7 1.4 104 Jordan Matthews PHI 5 1 1 4 1.4 104 Doug Baldwin SEA 5 1 1 1 1.1

Amari Cooper is averaging 6.2 targets and 11.4 PPR fantasy points per game this season. He has either recorded 20 receiving yards or less this season or has gone boom for 110 or more receiving yards this season while leading the Raiders in Air Yards (323). Cooper remains a volatile WR3 this week against the Seahawks.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

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Thanks & Good Luck This Week!