THE FALLING BIRTH RATE

SMALLER WORKFORCE, LARGER POPULATION

BIRTH RATE FALLS BELOW GLOBAL LEVELS

WHY ONE-CHILD POLICY MAY HAVE HURT AS MUCH AS IT HELPED

For decades now, China has been the world’s most populous country with a massive workforce driving its economy forward and turning it into a global manufacturing hub. But its bid to control its population , the one-child policy, has resulted in a declining birth rate , which now threatens to end its demographic dividend.The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows its birth rate fell to its lowest since 1949. In 2019, birth rate was 10.48 per 1,000 people. Despite the continual decline in the birth rate, a low death rate and increasing life expectancy pushed China’s population to 1.41 billion in 2019, up from 1.39 billion previously. China’s population is expected to peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion, before a period of “unstoppable” decline, a government report found. The population could drop to as low as 1.17 billion by 2065 if fertility rate continue to decline.China’s falling birth rate also poses an economic challenge — fewer births will lead to smaller workforce that will have to support a bigger, retired population due to increased life expectancy. Since 1980, China’s life expectancy has risen to 76 from 66. In 2017, China’s population aged 65 and older was 11.4% of the total and their proportion is expected to rise to 17.1% by 2030. The Chinese economy will have to make major changes to adjust to the needs of an older population — increased pensions and healthcare.There is no authoritative estimate of China’s total fertility rate. Estimates put it anywhere between 1.2 and 1.7 live births per woman, which is lower than US’s 1.8 and India’s 2.2. Global fertility rate stands at 2.47, down from 4.97 in 1950-55. The replacement rate is 2.1. China’s birth rate has now dropped below the US’s, at 12 per 1,000 people, but it remains higher than Japan’s 8. Currently, global birth rate is 18.5 per 1,000 people and India’s is 18.Many say China was slow to react to its declining birth rate. While the one-child policy was effective in slowing population growth, all census data after 1990 showed a steady decline in births per woman. In 2000, surveys found that fertility rate had fallen to 1.2. The government, however, said the actual figure was 1.8. Though the one-child policy was lifted in 2015, most people say they can’t afford more than one child without government aid, including increased paternity leave.