Pessimism seems to be the consensus view nowadays. Fewer than one in ten people in developed countries believe the world is getting better, according to a recent poll. In Australia, France, Germany, the UK, and the US, the share is only 5%. For every optimist, there are anywhere from five to 25 pessimists, depending on the country.

That is mind-boggling. Sure, there are problems -- but there is also progress. Media and human nature may focus us on the former, but the latter is what deserves attention. So, here are five long-term trends that I believe are fundamentally good, irrespective of politics, gender, race, religion, or socioeconomic status. The trends are: (i) declines in violence, (ii) proliferation of rights, (iii) improved health outcomes, (iv) continued economic progress, and (v) advancing technologies.

(1) Declines in violence : Over the course of human history, violence has declined dramatically. Five hundred years ago, the global powerhouses were in conflict 7 of every ten years. The frequency of war has come way down. What about homicide, a much more significant cause of human-inflicted death? Since 1900, homicide rates, too, have dropped across the globe. This coincided with falls in other violent crimes, including rape, sexual assault, and child abuse.

Although it may not seem so, we are living in relatively peaceful times. If you’re lucky enough to have seen the Broadway show Hamilton, then you’ll know the story of America’s founding father and first-ever Treasury Secretary, who was killed in a gun duel by two-time Presidential candidate, Aaron Burr. While not perfect, our society has clearly developed better ways to handle personal conflict.

(2) Proliferation of rights : Not only have we become less violent, we’re also more cooperative. In 1900, the world had only 10 democratic states, home to 200 million people. Today, we have nearly 100 democracies with population of 4.1 billion.

Coincident with this explosion in democracy was a historically unprecedented proliferation of civil, women’s, and gay rights. Globally, the prevalence of slavery dropped precipitously in the 1800s. In 1920, the United States extended women the right to vote, within ten years of similar actions in Belgium, Canada, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 banned discrimination based on “race, color, religion, sex, or national origin” in employment practices and public accommodations. And, in 2015, the US Supreme Court made same-sex marriage a right nationwide.

There is certainly work still to be done. The world is not free from prejudice, there remain gender inequities, and slavery still exists in our world, but the past 100 years make the trend of proliferating rights abundantly clear.

(3) Improving health outcomes : The 20th-century had another bright spot. Global life expectancy doubled from 34 years in 1913 to 71 years today. Over this period, life expectancy increased for all countries, and the major driver has been decreased infant and child mortality. While it is true we are living longer, decreased mortality for our young ones also means that more of us are given a chance at a happy and healthy life.

In fact, for health outcomes, we are doing more with less. It is incredible to think that a poor person born in Bangladesh today has a higher life expectancy than a wealthy person born in Britain in 1945.

(4) Continued economic progress : But more income and resources certainly help, too, and this brings me to the fourth long-term force – economic progress. Real GDP per capita in America has increased by a factor of ten since 1900. The pace of economic growth since the Industrial Revolution has been truly astounding, but the gains are not exclusive to developed countries. In the 50 years leading up to my birth, the share of world population living in extreme poverty dropped from over a half to under a quarter. Since then, extreme poverty has been cut in half yet again. Still, in a recent survey, only 1% of respondents were aware of this change. If the trend continues, some projections have almost no people living in extreme poverty by the year 2030. This would be a wonderful accomplishment.

(5) Advancing technologies : The final trend is what gets me excited about the future. At the forefront of medicine and computing, there are some remarkable technologies. Artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, biotechnology, digital manufacturing, nanomaterials, new fuel sources, and robotics, to name a few, all have the potential to dramatically improve the world we live in. It boggles my mind to think of the dramatic evolution of computers and the Internet and the positive impact they have had. What will the world look like 30 or 40 years from now? How will these new technologies enable us further? It is exciting to think about.

So, if we take a step back from the noise in any given week, month, or year, the trend is clear: we are (i) killing each other less, (ii) extending one another more rights, (iii) living longer, healthier lives, (iv) with more income to spend (v) on exciting technologies that will positively impact an exciting future. That is why I am optimistic.

What is Optimism?

In closing, I would like to share some thoughts on what optimism means. Some have characterized it as a naïve viewpoint ignorant of the world’s problems. While certainly there are problems, over time, human beings have demonstrated an incredible capacity for solutions, becoming more cooperative, resourceful, and imaginative along the way.

Optimism, therefore, is not a dearth of experience, innocence, or a lack of sophistication. It is not blind faith that things will automatically get better. Rather, it is a recognition of where we’ve come from and what we’ve achieved. It is a conviction that we can continue to actively make things better. It is a belief that we can make the trends continue.





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For further reading on these topics, I recommend: The Better Angels of Our Nature, The Rational Optimist, Abundance, and The Beginning of Infinity.