Large televisions in the press file room show former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Senator Kamala Harris on the second night of the second 2020 Democratic U.S. presidential debate in Detroit, Michigan, July 31, 2019.

Is it early in the 2020 Democratic presidential race, or is it late?

The question arises as new polls today affirm the rank order of President Trump's potential challengers. The answer, four months before voting starts, appears clear: very late for most, and still early for a few.

The separate surveys by Suffolk and Quinnipiac universities tested the same 21 Democratic candidates. In each case, five of them received at least five percent of the vote, and 16 did not.

Those 16 face grim prospects. Ten of them – Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Joe Sestak, Tom Steyer and Marianne Williamson – won't appear in the third Democratic debate next month.

The other six – Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet – have little to show for months of campaigning and two previous debates. They have brief, narrow windows of opportunity now.

That leaves three men and two women – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg - confident they've already made the political equivalent of the major league baseball playoffs. Not only do they lead national surveys, those five also top polling averages for the four critical early-voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

The Suffolk and Quinnipiac polls show Biden remains the clear Democratic front-runner. He draws 32%, with double-digit leads, in both.

The former vice president has shown notable resilience for a 76-year-old who floundered in two earlier presidential bids. Neither verbal missteps nor jabs from rivals has dislodged his base of support. African-American voters particularly have rallied behind Barack Obama's loyal lieutenant and his claim to have the strongest chance against Trump.