By Thibault Serlet

Trouble is brewing.

Biased news coverage of the Silk Road, cyber attacks, online terrorism, and the NSA have once again tipped public opinion against cryptography. Soon, the government became oddly intent on regulating encryption. Once again, the government will clash with cryptographers over the use of the controversial technology.

The stakes are higher than ever; the Second Crypto War is about to begin.

The First Crypto Wars

It is no longer widespread knowledge that until the Crypto Wars, a series of courageous protests, cryptography would still be virtually illegal.

During the Cold War, the US government feared that private citizens would sell military technology to Soviet aligned countries. To counter the perceived threat, the Arms Export Control Act was passed in 1976. It restricted the export of numerous weapon technologies. It was under this law that an obscure clause legally classified cryptography as ammunition.

At the time the Arms Export Control Act was passed, classifying cryptography as a munitions might have been sensible. Encryption technology was still very primitive. There was no need to protect communications from MitM attacks. After all, the concept of a computer virus had only been invented five years prior to the law’s drafting. What little encryption technology existed was used in banks and military communications equipment.

Everything changed after the adoption of the internet. Suddenly, dozens of mundane actions could now be legally classified as “arms” dealing. Sending an encrypted email within the United States was completely legal. Sending the same message to an address hosted outside the country was a felony. Thus, the seeds were planted for the first Crypto War.

Hostilities finally broke out when the NSA proposed its most outrageous law yet. In 1993, the FBI and NSA proposed that all devices include mandatory clipper chips which would forward all private keys directly to the government. This ignited a series of well publicized civil disobedience stunts.

The Electronic Frontier Foundation was founded to coordinate the pushback against the NSA. Activist Matt Blaze made a T-Shirt with encryption instructions printed on it. Another activist started a website which would turn users into voluntary felons by emailing 3 lines of encryption code to a server in Antigua.

After a long and brutal legal battle, the export of cryptography was legalized in successive waves. The Electronic Frontier Foundation argued on the basis of United States versus Doe that the clipper chip was illegal. In 1996, Bill Clinton signed an executive order discontinuing the use of the clipper chip, and reduced regulations surrounding encryption.

By late 1999 and throughout 2000, the American government struck down the last major cryptography regulations. This triggered a global wave of legalization. Today encryption is legal in over 160 countries.

The Second Crypto War is Heating Up

Recently, a confluence of unrelated events have once again planted the seed for another crypto war.

Governments are lobbying for regulations.

After the 2015 Charlie Hebdo terrorist attack, UK prime minister David Cameron told the press he wanted to “ban encryption.” World renown security expert Bruce Schneier argued that the prime minister’s plan to mandate backdoors would “break the internet.” He said: “As an engineer, I cannot design a system that works differently in the presence of a particular badge or a signed piece of paper. I have two options. I can design a secure system that has no backdoor access, meaning neither criminals nor foreign intelligence agencies nor domestic police can get at the data. Or I can design a system that has backdoor access, meaning they all can.”

The UK isn’t the only European country currently attempting to curb encryption. In July 2015, the Netherlands issued updates for the 2002 Security Act allowing the government to force private companies to release their customers cryptographic keys.

America is also following suit: the government is slowly bringing back the old 1990s export bans. America is also pressuring European Union to adopt parallel versions of the American bans.

The Cryptography Masters

Many smart, cryptographically competent, and powerful CEOs stand to oppose the cumbersome government regulations.

Virtually all of the large tech companies, such as Google or Apple, rely on encryption for their day to day operations. A significant legal disruption of encryption technology would severely impact the bottom line of numerous American businesses.

One of cryptography’s most powerful allies will likely be billionaire Peter Thiel, co-founder of Paypal. Thiel’s experience in cybersecurity is extensive; he even started Palantir, a major NSA contractor. Despite this, he’s a vocal libertarian. Fortune Magazine even commented that “Peter Thiel has never met a regulation that he didn’t hate.” Nobody stands to oppose government cryptography regulations more than Thiel.

Less vocal CEOs will also oppose the new laws, although in more subtle manners. After the Snowden revelations, Google began encrypting its cloud services. Search queries in Google, Bing, and Yahoo are also encrypted [http://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/bing-to-encrypt-search-default/ ]. Apple has implemented end-to-end user device encryption. With lawsuits over the use of these technologies over the horizon, a legal clash is abound.

Brace Yourselves. The Second Crypto War is Coming.

It appears that world governments are preparing to make a major move against cryptography. Over the last few months, the Chinese have began a series of unprecedented cyber attacks. The FBI has repeatedly come out against encryption. Lobbyists are meeting. It is a distinct possibility that the Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty will concern clauses regulating cryptography.

The last crypto war was fought between small-scale activists and low-level government officials. The stakes are much higher this time around. Immovable corporations will collide with omnipotent states. The war’s outcomes are uncertain, but its already clear that the clash will be legendary.