NSC’s first road game didn’t go super-great. Can the Boys in Gold get their first win of the season after picking up a draw at home last week?

The essentials

Opponent: Bethlehem Steel (1-1-0, 4 GF, 3GA so far in 2018)

The Line: Nashville SC +397, Bethlehem Steel -166, Draw +291 (y’all this looks like an insane betting line to me, making the Steel a very comfortable favorite over NSC or a draw). Thanks @IronPonyChef for the lines.

Time, Location: 2:00 p.m. EDT • Goodman Stadium, Bethlehem, Pa.

Event: USL Regular season

Weather: 54° F, 0% chance of rain, 8 MPH Southwesterly winds.

Watch: Watch locally on MyTV30 or stream below. See the list of soccer bars in Nashville if you want to watch remotely (not all will be airing the game – it’s a stream-only affair – so make sure you call ahead. The usual Assembly, Music City Supporters, and Roadies bars will have it on).

Follow: @NashvilleSC, @ClubCountryUSA, USL gametracker page. @Austin_Gwin, @BSteelFC, @villellaBSFC.

Etc.:Q&A with Evan Villella. Photos from Thursday practice. Press conference video from Gary Smith and from players.

Elsewhere: USL Preview. Golden Goal Q&A with the man of the hour, Evan Villella, and their keys to the game. 615 Formationpreview. From across the pitch, Villella’s Brotherly Gamepreview.

The Stream

Bethlehem Steel

This is the first MLS B-side that Nashville SC has seen this year, and typically that distinction carries with it a bit of a stigma: their job is not to win USL games so much as to prepare players for MLS. The standings tend to bear that out: NYRBII and the Steel, in seventh and eighth, were the only B-sides to make the playoff from the East. However, there’s also an important advantage for these sides, as well: they have access to higher-caliber talent (on MLS contracts), albeit not on a consistent basis with those players bouncing between the USL side and the last few spots on the game-week MLS roster.

Without a full indication of who is with the Steel (most of the Union players are probably in Colorado, even if some of them don’t make the 18 tomorrow), it’s a bit of a guessing game as to who will be in the lineup.

The personnel losses are pretty big from last year’s team: Seku Conneh (K-League in South Korea), Cory Burke (Union), and Hugh Roberts (you may recall I wrote about him in the Riverhounds preview last week, though he didn’t even make the bench for his new team) are the key departures. That’s the top two scorers and the best defender. However, like the Union taketh away in Burke, it also giveth: the Steel are loaded with MLS SuperDraft picks, including the NCAA’s all-divisions single-season scoring leader Aidan Apodaca, the leader of Wisconsin’s Big Ten title team, Michael Catalano, and a couple former signings from other MLS clubs.

The big name, though, is most familiar to USL fans. Brandon Allen scored 24 goals in 42 games for NYRBII in 2016 and early 2017, before a loan move from the Red Bulls organization to Minnesota United saw him make a total of one appearance (fewer than teammate and now-NSC defender Justin Davis). He scored twice against the Richmond Kickers in the season opener – showing that his form may rise to the occasion in USL – before the whole team was kept off the scoresheet in Tampa Bay last weekend.

Eric Ayuk and Derrick Jones also scored against the Kickers, while Catalano and Marcus Epps recorded assists.

Defensively, Brandon Aubrey was signed from the Toronto FC organization, and he’s been every bit the defensive stalwart he was expected to be so far. Matthew Mahoney has played all 180 minutes to date, as has defensively-oriented midfielder James Chambers.

Keeper John McCarthy has every minute between the pipes so far, with 10 saves made, and three goals conceded (one to Richmond, two against the Rowdies). The Kickers’ attack was totally toothless, with one goal allowed on just two shots on target – the cynic in me quietly makes a “hey, he’ll be used to what he’s going to see against Nashville” joke – while he was peppered by Tampa Bay and held up allowing just two goals.

The Boys in Gold

NSC’s defense has been very good – Louisville scored on a set piece and a counter-attack of sorts, but that’s it so far – but that has, to an extent, come at the expense of offense. The 5-3-2 system that Gary Smith prefers has yet to find a way to consistently find shots. Whether that’s the system or the personnel (primarily wingbacks and the as-yet unsettled situation up top), something must be done to fix it.

We’ve had some indications of what Smith’s ideas are: he initially put a 4-4-2 on last week’s lineup sheet, but the product on the field was a 5-3-2 nonetheless. Then, after halftime, the team came out with a true 4-4-2 without changing personnel – but flipped back to its typical formation when the subs started rolling in. There was even a bit of position-mixing, with Lebo Moloto moving up top while striker Robin Shroot dropped back into the central midfield role he vacated.

That is all to say that, while Smith may have his preferred shapes and players, he’s not afraid to mix it up in order to try to solve a puzzle that his team has been unable to at this point. Does he go with extreme changes, or more subtle ones in Bethlehem? While I think the “break glass in case of emergency” of wholesale tactics changes is on the table, it would not surprise me to see the 5-3-2 with some updated personnel (Taylor Washington at one of the wingbacks, Michael Cox with perhaps a speedier player up top) as the initial strategy. The 4-4-2 is going to be there – and thanks to the versatility of a few players, won’t require much personnel shuffling – if needed, though.

Projected lineups

Bethlehem has come out in a 4-2-3-1 in both games so far, with minimal personnel shuffling. Meanwhile, as you can see above, I talked myself out of expecting NSC to come out in a 4-4-2. Let’s be very clear, though: it would not surprise me if they did, as that would be a good way to handle the Steel’s wingers, and to create width offensively to not overcrowd the midfield. The 5-3-2 playing more like a 3-4-3 (with Moloto working in with the forwards more frequently, while the wingbacks play high on offense, as they often do) would be another way to achieve those goals.

Here’s what I’m thinking we’ll see:

However, look for an early sub at striker (maybe halftime, if not before) if Cox’s speed upgrade over Hume and Moloto’s sliding in with the frontline isn’t enough to make up for a lack of pace from Shroot.

Predictions

Well, I’ve predicted goals in the past couple games, and it hasn’t really worked out for me, yeah? Still, I think there’s one in this team, especially against a Steel side that doesn’t have the ability to pick up reserves from the Union (given that the Union’s players are in Philadelphia). So, here goes:

Ropapa Mensah gets his most extensive playing time of the year OR we get our first glimpse of Alan Winn. If the staff wants to put more speed on the field, particularly up top, that’s where it comes from.

There’s at least a little bit of 4-4-2 play. Since the personnel doesn’t really need to change (we saw Justin Davis play left fullback against Pittsburgh, and Ryan James is capable of playing basically anywhere in the midfield or outside backs – he’s even made cameos at right centerback). Washington can play a more advanced role, which might even minimize the defensive downgrade he could be over Kosuke Kimura, While Reed slid out to right midfield when they made the switch last week.

The team scores its first goal. And it’s neither assisted nor scored by Lebo Moloto (who leads the team in shots by a hilarious margin).

The Steel have enough attacking talent to get one on the board, but I’m not sure it happens. Thanks to Nashville’s offensive ineptitude – and a couple letdown moments against Louisville – the outstanding quality of their defense has been overlooked so far.

This might not be quite the Nashville SC team we were expecting to see after the preseason, but they’re not as far as it feels, and every game has the potential for the potential energy to go kinetic in the attack when the chemistry clicks. Still, this is going to be a side that will play some low scoring games, and this is another. The game ends in a 1-1 draw.