Local Democrats have done better than Republicans in voter registration over the past year, but the numbers aren’t big enough to make much of a dent in the GOP’s dominance.

Since last August, Democrats have increased their ranks in Lancaster County by 2,362 voters while Republicans have lost 202 voters, according to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Republicans still represent 52 percent of registered voters in the county, while Democrats make up 32 percent and independents or third-party voters make up the other 16 percent.

Analysts say the recent trend may be a reflection of the current national political mood, even if the Grand Old Party’s advantage here doesn’t look like it’s vanishing anytime soon.

Today marks exactly one month before Pennsylvania’s Oct. 9 voter registration deadline ahead of the Nov. 6 election. To register for the first time or change your registration, go to www.votespa.com or visit the Lancaster County Voter Registration & Board of Elections Office, 150 N. Queen St., Suite 117, Lancaster.

Candidates on the ballot will include those for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House, as well as state Senate and House. Nearly every race in Lancaster County will have candidates from both major parties.

Voter changes

At the same time as Democrats increased their numbers and Republicans lost some here, the number of Independents also increased by 2,175 between August last year and this year, according to the state data.

That’s pretty much a reflection of what’s happening nationally, political analysts like Elizabethtown College professor Kyle Kopko and Franklin & Marshall College professor Stephen Medvic say.

“There’s going to be ebbs and flows,” Kopko said, mentioning that during the 2016 election year, Republicans actually gained some ground in the party’s massive statewide voter registration disadvantage.

Now, with Trump in the White House and Republicans in control of Congress, the GOP is facing a backlash and Democrats are energized to vote.

“There’s so much activity,” said Lancaster County Democratic Committee chairwoman JoAnn Hentz said. “The (Democrats’) office is as active as it is in a presidential year.”

Republican Committee of Lancaster County chairman Kirk Radanovic said it's not surprising to see the Democrats attracting what he believes are "a relatively small number of new, first-time voters." But when election day comes, he said he believes Republicans, cross-over Democrats and many Independents will choose GOP candidates.

Out of all 67 Pennsylvania counties, Lancaster has gained more Democrats in the last year than all but four other counties — Montgomery, Delaware, Chester and Bucks in the more moderate Philadelphia suburbs. Each of those counties, like Lancaster, also gained a significant number of “non-affiliated” voters while mostly losing GOP voters (Bucks was the only one in the positive, with 67 more Republican voters).

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"That doesn't surprise me at all," said Hentz, whose local committee and campaign teams are actively registering voters and training volunteers.

Still, in a county like Lancaster — with 167,700 Republican voters to the Democrats’ 104,000 — a couple thousand more voters for one party is a “drop in the bucket,” Medvic said.

“For Lancaster to be that high statewide is something. It's just there's still a long way to go,” Medvic said. “They started at such a disadvantage that they’ll need years and years of that kind of growth or more (to be competitive or win).”

Turnout will be vital, especially for Democrats hoping to overcome large registration disadvantages, Kopko and Medvic said.

In the race for the 11th Congressional District, for example, Democrat Jess King would need to not only turn out all Democrats and Independents, but also convert a decent number of Republicans.

King is challenging incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker, who is seeking a second term.

The district, which includes all of Lancaster County and southern York County, was made up of 239,571 Republicans, 140,347 Democrats and 72,087 others as of the end of June, according to the latest available data.

Lancaster County turnout during the last two midterm elections, in 2014 and 2010, was 46 percent and 48 percent, respectively. In the 2016 presidential election, it was 73.5 percent.

Independents and the big picture

The increasing number of Independents, meanwhile, has been a national trend, Kopko said. Many voters may not want to be associated with either party but they still lean toward one or the other.

“They’re probably not truly centrist independents,” he said.

Compared to Election Day 2016, Independents make up the only group that has actually gained in terms of their percentage of the overall electorate in Lancaster County. They’re up by about three-quarters of a percent — to 9.2 percent of county voters.

The Republican advantage, at 52 percent, is down from 62 percent two decades ago. Still, with a 20-point edge over Democrats, the GOP holds every countywide elected office and 12 of the 13 state House or Senate seats that fall fully or partially within the county.