Reignman

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Member Back to Top Post by Reignman on Alright, so here's the scoop with this little nugget. I got my hands on some detailed passing statistics for every play from 2013-2016. Unfortunately the 2016 stats aren't complete, I only through week 8, so accurate head to head isn't entirely possible. I'm also a little disappointed I couldn't get my hands on 2012 so I could include Ponder in the comparison, so I'll just have to make due with what I got for now.



So here's what I did, since 2016 is only partial. I'm only going to look at averages and percentages with this chart. I ranked all qualifying QB's from 2013-2016, in each category. Qualifying means they attempted at least 14 passes per team game. There were a total of 137 qualifying QB's, so that's what they're ranked out of in each category. League average simply means the average of the 137 qualifiers.

league avg 2014 Teddy 2015 Teddy 2016 Sammy



completion percent 63.0 (73rd) 64.4 (44th) 65.3 (37th) 66.5 (23rd)

average per attempt 7.26 (57th) 7.26 (58th) 7.23 (62nd) 7.10 (79th)

TD percent 4.72 (56th) 3.98 (84th) 3.13 (117th) 3.94 (88th)

INT percent 2.36 (74th) 2.99 (104th) 2.01 (48th) 0.49 (4th)

QB rating 90.7 (66th) 86.9 (87th) 88.7 (74th) 98.2 (27th)

sack rate 6.20 (70th) 8.84 (123rd) 8.96 (125th) 8.56 (117th)

air to yac rate 54.3 (73rd) 50.6 (108th) 44.3 (133rd) 55.7 (54th)

past the sticks on 3rd rate 49.6 (65th) 37.0 (128th) 34.8 (132nd) 37.1 (127th)

throwing short 3rd conv rate 23.7 (76th) 29.4 (28th) 30.2 (24th) 20.5 (97th)

throwing past 3rd conv rate 50.9 (69th) 60.0 (18th) 45.7 (107th) 69.6 (3rd)



Percent of attempts that travel:

0-9 yards 51.9 (72nd) 53.0 (56th) 52.3 (68th) 58.6 (12th)

10-19 yards 22.4 (59th) 18.7 (119th) 19.5 (111th) 16.3 (133rd)

20-29 yards 7.1 (63rd) 6.2 (98th) 7.4 (55th) 5.4 (115th)

30-39 yards 3.1 (54th) 2.2 (106th) 2.5 (94th) 3.0 (64th)

40+ yards 1.9 (63rd) 0.9 (114th) 3.0 (18th) 1.0 (107th)



Comp percent of passes that travel:

0-9 yards 67.7 (75th) 69.0 (49th) 69.2 (45th) 68.9 (52nd)

10-19 yards 54.7 (61st) 62.7 (13th) 57.5 (42nd) 54.5 (66th)

20-29 yards 36.7 (82nd) 48.0 (27th) 33.3 (93rd) 72.7 (2nd)

30-39 yards 30.8 (62nd) 22.2 (94th) 18.2 (106th) 16.7 (112th)

40+ yards 25.0 (77th) 8.3 (116th) 0.0 (130th) 50.0 (27th)



QB rating for passes that travel:

0-9 yards 92.0 (65th) 89.6 (77th) 97.6 (35th) 87.3 (90th)

10-19 yards 88.0 (61st) 84.9 (80th) 90.9 (49th) 107.5 (16th)

20-29 yards 72.9 (82nd) 103.6 (34th) 41.8 (119th) 154.4 (2nd)

30-39 yards 71.0 (82nd) 62.5 (92nd) 46.4 (108th) 91.7 (53rd)

40+ yards 79.2 (77th) 39.6 (105th) 39.6 (117th) 95.8 (56th)

Most of those deep passes only involve around 10 passes for each QB, so they're almost useless. We just don't go deep all that often as you can see lol. We've been the check down kings for the past decade, minus the short Favre era.



I plan to post more data as I figure out how to use it. If we're curious about how specific QB's have done for comparison, I can add a bunch of those too. Let me know who you'd like to see. Just keep in mind I only have through week 8 of 2016. I'd like to take a look at Brady and Rodgers just to see how much better they are on deeper throws.



FYI Nick Foles went 6/10 with 4 TD's on passes that traveled 40+ yards in the air in 2013. I just though that was quite impressive lol. Tyrod Taylor also throws a high percentage of deep balls, which I never would have guessed.



Sam Bradford isn't half bad going deep either so I don't know why he doesn't do it more often. He went 8/18 with 5 TD's and only 1 INT last year with the Eagles on passes 30+ yards. Those were some of the best deep numbers in the league last year. Young Theodore is just 1/16 on passes over 40 yards, and 5/36 on passes over 30 yards in his career.



I can also use the raw data to create new categories. For example passes in the 15-30 yard range. Our how QB's do on 3rd down in the 4th quarter, or 1st down in the 1st quarter xD. Endless possibilities. So give me some ideas.

Reignman

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Member Back to Top Post by Reignman on And here's how some of the "elites" have done in their best season since 2013. They're surprisingly more conservative than I thought. Maybe it's because they win most of their games and are usually in the lead? Upon further review there are a lot of QB's high up on the list in passes attempted in the 20-39 yard range.

2014 Rodgers 2015 Brady 2013 Manning 2013 Brees 2015 Wilson



completion percent 65.6 (35th) 64.4 (45th) 68.3 (9th) 68.6 (8th) 68.1 (11th)

average per attempt 8.43 (7th) 7.64 (32nd) 8.32 (11th) 7.93 (21st) 8.34 (10th)

TD percent 7.31 (5th) 5.77 (23rd) 8.35 (3rd) 6.00 (16th) 7.04 (8th)

INT percent 0.96 (12th) 1.12 (14th 1.52 (26th) 1.85 (38th) 1.66 (34th)

QB rating 112.2 (6th) 102.2 (17th) 115.1 (4th) 104.6 (13th) 110.1 (7th)

sack rate 5.11 (46th) 5.74 (62nd) 2.66 (2nd) 5.39 (53rd) 8.52 (116th)

air to yac rate 53.0 (88th) 49.4 (111th) 52.9 (89th) 52.8 (91st) 54.6 (70th) <--- all below average except Wilson

past the sticks on 3rd rate 65.7 (2nd) 40.7 (119th) 53.5 (41st) 52.4 (45th) 46.6 (88th)

throwing short 3rd conv rate 26.1 (53rd) 30.2 (23rd) 37.0 (1st) 24.4 (72nd) 31.4 (20th)

throwing past 3rd conv rate 54.5 (40th) 54.2 (44th) 51.2 (65th) 54.6 (39th) 59.0 (21st)



Percent of attempts that travel:

0-9 yards 54.4 (44th) 56.6 (20th) 57.8 (14th) 46.9 (122nd) 52.4 (66th)

10-19 yards 23.7 (42nd) 17.6 (126th) 19.7 (100th) 22.6 (55th) 19.7 (103rd)

20-29 yards 7.1 (61st) 6.9 (71st) 8.2 (28th) 6.9 (69th) 8.1 (32nd)

30-39 yards 2.7 (82nd) 2.7 (78th) 3.0 (56th) 3.1 (52nd) 2.7 (82nd) <--- all below average except Brees

40+ yards 1.0 (110th) 1.9 (61st) 0.6 (127th) 2.3 (39th) 2.7 (27th)



Comp percent of passes that travel:

0-9 yards 71.7 (22nd) 67.4 (80th) 73.0 (13th) 72.5 (16th) 70.8 (25th)

10-19 yards 52.8 (77th) 58.2 (36th) 59.2 (30th) 68.7 (2nd) 65.3 (5th)

20-29 yards 48.6 (24th) 41.9 (54th) 40.7 (59th) 37.8 (76th) 48.7 (23rd)

30-39 yards 50.0 (6th) 23.5 (87th) 50.0 (5th) 35.0 (45th) 46.2 (17th)

40+ yards 60.0 (9th) 16.7 (109th) 50.0 (14th) 33.3 (47th) 23.1 (86th)



QB rating for passes that travel:

0-9 yards 110.3 (5th) 102.2 (20th) 108.8 (7th) 96.0 (50th) 96.8 (42nd)

10-19 yards 91.9 (46th) 118.8 (6th) 112.5 (13th) 110.9 (15th) 142.8 (1st) <--- not a typo O.O

20-29 yards 110.5 (25th) 96.8 (44th) 102.8 (36th) 97.5 (42nd) 123.7 (12th)

30-39 yards 135.4 (5th) 70.2 (83rd) 95.8 (47th) 122.9 (23rd) 118.3 (30th)

40+ yards 143.8 (7th) 27.8 (125th) 95.8 (44th) 121.5 (20th) 69.4 (88th)

Reignman

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Member Back to Top Post by Reignman on So I've been crunching some more numbers. Thought I'd take a stab at trying to rank QB's on an aggressive/conservative scale. And then based on that, try to determine which style has had more success.



I took 128 QB's and ranked them in various categories, air/yac ratio, throwing past the sticks on 3rd down rate, and then by their percentage of pass attempts in the 5 different yardage categories (0-9 yards, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39, and 40+). That's how far the ball actually traveled downfield, not the reception yardage. For air/yac ratio, 3rd down ratio, and the 20+ yard categories I ranked them in descending order. So for example, whoever had the highest air/yac ratio would be ranked #1. Then for 0-9 and 10-19 yard categories I ranked them in ascending order so lowest percentage in those categories would be ranked #1. I consider those 2 categories to be more on the conservative side. Then I added up their ranks in all 5 categories. Lowest overall total = most aggressive, highest = most conservative. Sound good so far?



So out of these 128 QB's from 2013 to 2016, who do you suppose had the most aggressive score, and who the most conservative? Place your bets. Hint: It was neither Teddy nor Sammy. And remember this is all based on a QB's willingness to throw the ball down field so a good yac receiver only made you look more conservative.



I also split these 128 QB's into 8 different categories of 16 QB's each. The top 16 going in the hyper aggressive category, and all the way down to the bottom 16 who went in the hyper conservative category. I tallied up all the stats in each category, including wins/losses to see if any one style was having more or less success than the others. And I think so.



So which style do you think did the best? Do the aggressive QB's get the girl err I mean win more often, or is it the more conservative? And which is statistically better? And are the aggressive guys better at throwing 40+ yard bombs? They throw them more often, but are they actually better at it?

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Member Back to Top Post by beckmt on I would guess the best were in the middle. Throwing way downfield is usually only for end of half/game or on missed coverages, keep the defense honest(show only). The middle guys spread the field and force whole field coverage/keeping the safeties honest and forced to cover the field.

Would be interested in where the defenses figure in/are some conferences more zone or man to man and how each QB attacked those coverages. I do feel Sammy has to throw the ball down the field more, but is hard to tell from here if his receivers do not get good separation or what the issue is.

Breakdown is a lot of time and hard, that is why coaches spend many hours in the film room

Reignman

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Member Back to Top Post by Reignman on And the results are in ....

PAST

WIN CMP AVG TD INT QB SACK AIR STICKS 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40+

QB TYPE W L T PCT PCT /ATT PCT PCT RATE PCT /YAC ON 3RD PCT PCT PCT PCT PCT

hyper aggressive 106 85 1 0.552 61.15 7.47 4.84 2.81 88.6 6.29 60.14 55.04 48.10 23.91 8.35 4.34 2.84

super aggressive 121 96 1 0.557 61.34 7.41 4.82 2.94 87.9 6.48 56.13 52.50 49.04 23.13 8.48 3.68 2.04

more aggressive 100 77 1 0.565 62.96 7.32 5.02 2.46 91.5 6.81 55.50 51.51 50.01 22.88 8.08 2.96 2.11

balanced aggressive 97 98 0 0.497 63.48 7.21 4.95 2.25 92.2 4.92 54.90 49.57 52.88 21.76 6.35 3.13 2.03

balanced conservative 87 102 1 0.461 61.32 7.06 4.39 2.28 87.7 6.80 55.61 50.65 52.12 24.08 6.86 2.54 1.76

more conservative 121 82 2 0.595 63.99 7.39 4.72 2.12 93.1 5.32 51.13 46.85 53.75 20.72 7.25 2.55 1.44

super conservative 78 84 1 0.482 64.39 7.24 4.33 2.21 91.1 6.24 51.58 44.62 54.67 21.06 6.34 2.21 1.49

hyper conservative 89 107 0 0.454 64.26 6.97 4.06 2.20 89.1 6.64 49.62 42.06 54.18 21.39 5.24 2.13 0.97

Based on stats, QB's who tend to be more balanced seem to post the better rating, but aggressive QB's are doing all the winning while the more conservative QB's seem to do the losing.



The top 16 most aggressive QB's since 2013 (aka the hyper aggressive class from above):

1. 2015 Tyrod Taylor

2. 2016 Ben Roethlisberger

3. 2015 Carson Palmer

4. 2014 Nick Foles

5. 2014 Drew Stanton

6. 2014 Josh McCown

7. 2015 Ben Roethlisberger

8. 2013 Russell Wilson

9. 2014 Cam Newton

10. 2013 Jay Cutler

11. 2015 Jameis Winston

12. 2015 Jay Cutler

13. 2015 Andrew Luck

14. 2015 Cam Newton

15. 2014 Austin Davis

16. 2013 Joe Flacco

And the 16 most conservative (aka the hyper conservative):

128. 2014 Alex Smith

127. 2013 Matt Ryan

126. 2013 Alex Smith

125. 2016 Matthew Stafford

124. 2015 Blaine Gabbert

123. 2016 Derek Carr

122. 2013 Chad Henne

121. 2013 Matt Schaub

120. 2015 Alex Smith

119. 2015 Matthew Stafford

118. 2015 Philip Rivers

117. 2015 Matt Ryan

116. 2014 Ryan Tannehill

115. 2013 Jason Campbell

114. 2015 Matt Hasselbeck

113. 2013 Terrelle Pryor

Definitely some surprises on both lists. Tyrod mother f****ing Taylor most aggressive eh? The most shocking has to be 2016 Derek Carr in the hyper conservative class (1st half of season only). Never would have guessed. Matty Stafford and Philip Rivers also surprises. Alex Smith no surprise lol. No Teddy though. Where does 2015 Theodore rank? Ahhhh he actually tied Terrelle Pryor for 16th most conservative, so I guess he lucked out when I did the sort, so he ended up in the super conservative class. 2014 Teddy pulled in at 92nd and ended up in the more conservative. So I guess he regressed a little in 2015.



Now let me find 2 sleeves to satisfy Funky's evil side. I know she's itching to know xD. *checks data* Ahhh here he is, sorry he didn't qualify for the list. I only had data up to week 8 of 2016 so unless a guy had 224 or more attempts he didn't qualify. Sammy had 203. But I'm sure he would have ended up with Alex Smith in the hyper conservative class lol. In fact I have no doubt. 2015 Sammy ranked 106th with the Eagles and landed in the super conservative class.



All 3 Tom Brady's (2013, 2014, and 2015) ended up in the more conservative class, so he's more toward the middle and consistent. 2013 and 2015 Rodgers ended up in the more aggressive. 2014 in the more conservative, and 2016 was balanced conservative. But 2016 doesn't include the 2nd half of the season where he went on a tear so I imagine he actually finished somewhere on the aggressive side.

Reignman

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Member Back to Top Post by Reignman on I took the same 128 QB's from above and again broke them down into 8 groups of 16 each but this time in terms of win percentage for each passing category. So the top 16 in completion percentage combined, then the next 16 combined, etc. Then the top 16 in average yards per attempt and so on and so on. Some surprises, some obvious. Air to YAC ratio basically had no bearing on win percent. Same with throwing past the sticks on 3rd. In fact the more conservative QB's won more often in that category. Even sack ratio had some bearing on wins. Average per attempt almost seems to contradict a few other distance categories. And it certainly helps to throw TD's while not throwing INT's haha.



Completion Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT CMP/PCT

216 122 93 1 0.567 68.4

191 106 83 2 0.560 66.2

205 121 83 1 0.593 64.5

170 91 77 1 0.538 63.5

193 98 94 1 0.510 62.1

199 110 89 0 0.553 60.5

191 88 102 1 0.463 59.1

173 63 110 0 0.364 56.6

Average Per Attempt:

GS W L T W/PCT AVG

205 142 61 1 0.695 8.43

206 128 77 1 0.624 7.75

203 100 102 1 0.495 7.48

192 93 98 1 0.487 7.25

201 110 90 1 0.550 7.10

210 91 117 2 0.438 6.92

164 81 83 0 0.494 6.67

157 54 103 0 0.344 6.20

TD Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT TD/PCT

219 162 57 0 0.740 6.88

200 112 88 0 0.560 5.66

194 102 91 0 0.526 5.23

227 111 116 0 0.489 4.67

200 98 101 1 0.493 4.10

173 84 86 3 0.494 3.73

172 65 106 1 0.381 3.34

153 65 86 2 0.431 2.56

INT Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT INT/PCT

160 101 57 2 0.638 1.11

207 134 72 0 0.647 1.59

231 133 98 0 0.576 1.98

180 97 81 2 0.544 2.16

211 92 119 0 0.436 2.46

205 89 115 1 0.437 2.80

173 85 87 1 0.494 3.24

171 68 102 1 0.401 4.06

TD to INT Ratio:

GS W L T W/PCT TD/INT

178 126 52 0 0.708 4.93

197 123 72 1 0.627 3.28

222 134 87 1 0.606 2.65

232 105 127 0 0.453 2.09

199 104 93 2 0.528 1.71

177 66 110 1 0.376 1.42

155 74 80 1 0.481 1.19

178 67 110 1 0.379 0.74

QB Rating:

GS W L T W/PCT RATING

203 142 61 0 0.700 108.1

209 128 79 1 0.615 98.8

195 102 92 1 0.526 94.1

211 104 106 1 0.495 91.0

204 115 88 1 0.566 88.0

201 91 108 2 0.458 84.2

146 51 94 1 0.353 79.0

169 66 103 0 0.391 71.5

Sack Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT SK/PCT

188 110 77 1 0.588 3.37

202 109 92 1 0.542 4.47

191 103 87 1 0.542 5.00

185 99 86 0 0.535 5.72

190 104 86 0 0.547 6.49

197 88 109 0 0.447 7.20

195 104 87 3 0.541 8.28

190 82 107 1 0.434 9.44

Air to YAC Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT AIR/YAC

176 88 87 0 0.500 63.4

198 96 99 3 0.492 59.7

182 94 85 3 0.525 56.6

184 91 93 0 0.495 55.1

191 118 73 0 0.618 53.9

216 110 106 0 0.509 52.4

189 105 83 1 0.558 49.4

202 97 105 0 0.480 45.3

Past the Sticks on 3rd Down Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT PCT

174 95 78 1 0.549 60.2

201 110 91 0 0.547 55.4

229 124 104 0 0.541 52.8

209 114 94 1 0.548 50.4

174 79 94 1 0.457 48.0

195 103 91 1 0.531 45.9

175 71 103 1 0.409 42.8

181 103 76 2 0.575 36.3

Downfield 0-9 Yards Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT 0-9

177 84 92 1 0.477 59.2

197 103 93 1 0.525 55.8

156 76 79 1 0.490 54.0

197 101 96 0 0.513 52.5

213 114 98 1 0.538 51.4

206 93 112 1 0.454 49.8

195 110 84 1 0.567 47.9

197 118 77 1 0.602 44.6

Downfield 10-19 Yards Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT 10-19

173 93 78 2 0.543 29.0

188 96 92 0 0.511 25.6

216 118 98 0 0.546 23.6

224 128 95 1 0.574 22.5

195 84 108 2 0.436 21.3

181 99 82 0 0.547 20.2

190 101 89 0 0.532 19.3

171 80 89 2 0.474 17.3

Downfield 20-29 Yards Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT 20-29

199 99 100 0 0.497 9.93

217 129 87 0 0.594 8.34

158 80 77 1 0.509 7.81

187 96 88 3 0.521 7.29

227 133 93 1 0.588 6.80

166 81 84 1 0.491 6.37

187 92 94 1 0.495 5.77

197 89 108 0 0.452 4.74

Downfield 30-39 Yards Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT 30-39

194 116 76 1 0.601 4.79

185 84 100 1 0.457 3.81

197 104 92 1 0.530 3.33

204 125 78 1 0.615 3.01

207 97 109 1 0.471 2.72

201 105 96 0 0.522 2.42

187 94 92 1 0.505 2.09

163 74 88 1 0.457 1.38

Downfield 40+ Yards Percentage:

GS W L T W/PCT 40+

187 103 82 1 0.553 3.56

209 118 90 1 0.567 2.76

158 82 75 1 0.522 2.29

212 116 95 1 0.550 1.94

168 67 98 3 0.408 1.71

212 110 102 0 0.519 1.26

195 112 83 0 0.574 0.90

197 91 106 0 0.462 0.50

