Yesterday, I looked at what goes into success for current major league franchises — and what might determine what cities get consideration if and when Major League Baseball gives the green light to expansion. Today, let’s look at some of the cities identified in greater detail.

Applying the Findings to U.S. Cities with No Team

Yesterday, I took my best stab at divining the factors that shape attendance numbers. Now, let’s apply these findings to U.S. cities that don’t currently have a major league team. In theory, this will enable us to identify the cities that are best suited to draw a respectable number of fans if they added a team. I limited my analysis to cities with at least 1.5 million residents. This is slightly fewer than the 1.56 million living in Milwaukee, which is the least populous city to currently house a team. The unoccupied cities ranked thusly. I also included each city’s population, though as a reminder population isn’t accounted for in my model.

Possible Expansion Cities

Rank City Population 1 San Jose, Calif. 1.9 mllion 2 Las Vegas, Nev. 2.0 million 3 Austin, Tex. 1.8 million 4 Sacramento, Calif. 2.2 million 5 Providence, R.I. 1.6 million 6 Columbus, Ohio 1.9 million 7 Riverside, Calif. 4.3 million 8 Charlotte, N.C. 2.3 million 9 Portland, Ore. 2.3 million 10 Nashville, Tenn. 1.7 million 11 Orlando, Fla. 2.2 million 12 Virginia Beach, Va. 1.7 million 13 San Antonio, Tex. 2.2 million 14 Indianapolis, Ind. 1.9 million 15 San Juan, P.R. 2.3 million

Now, let’s dive a little deeper. Below, I examine the five U.S. cities that grade out best according to my model, and five more that grade out surprisingly poorly. In addition to interpreting my model’s output, I also look at the attendance figures for each city’s minor league team. To be clear, minor league attendance data had nothing to do with my model, but I think it’s useful as a second opinion. If a city draws well in the minors, you’d probably expect it to perform similarly in the majors.

1) San Jose

Sitting atop the list is San Francisco’s neighbor to the south. Major league baseball in San Jose isn’t a novel idea; the Oakland A’s have been considering a move to the capital of Silicon Valley for some time now. But up until now, they’ve been blocked by the San Francisco Giants, who have territorial rights over Santa Clara County.

The legal barriers associated with putting a team in San Jose go well beyond the scope of my model (and my expertise), but demographically, San Jose checks most of the boxes associated with strong attendance numbers. Its residents have high incomes, there are few black residents (just three percent of San Jose’s total population), more than half of its population is male (50.3 percent compared to an average of 48.9 percent in big cities), and it has just the right age demographic: A high median age, but not a ton of people 65 or older.

San Jose looks great, but it’s not without flaw. For one, its population is highly educated — a whopping 46 percent of its population over the age of 25 has at least a bachelor’s degree. It’s also not particularly warm in San Jose, even in the summer. Still, the city has more than enough going for it to make up for these deficiencies.

A move to San Jose would make sense logistically as well. Situated less than 50 miles from Oakland, San Jose is close enough for the A’s to retain a portion of their current fan base, but far enough away that they’d no longer have to share a metropolis with the Giants. (Oakland is part of the San Francisco MSA.)

The San Francisco Giants’ High-A affiliate is in San Jose, aptly named the Giants. They’ve had the second-highest average attendance in the California League for each of the last four years, trailing only the Lake Elsinore Storm (located in the Riverside MSA). The S.J. Giants’ strong attendance figures only strengthen San Jose’s case as an ideal baseball city.

2) Las Vegas

Las Vegas’ biggest advantage is its large male population. Males account for 48.9 percent of the population in large cities, but make up 50.3 percent of Las Vegas residents. This may not seem like a huge deal until you compare it to other cities: Vegas’ male population is the highest among the 52 U.S. cities with at least a million residents. Vegas’ warm climate also makes it an enticing destination for a team. Located on the floor of the Mojave Desert, Vegas boasts temperatures that are higher than any major city that’s devoid of a big league franchise.

Las Vegas looks like good baseball city on paper, but the attendance figures for the Las Vegas 51s — the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate — haven’t been pretty. With just 4,640 fans per game, they ranked last in the Pacific Coast League for average attendance last year, and weren’t much better in prior years. Things might be different for a big league team, but it’s also possible that there’s just too much else going on in Vegas for baseball to get much play.

3) Austin

With the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers (the latter located near Dallas), Texas is already home to two major league clubs. However, Texas is a large state. It’s the second-largest in the nation both in terms of population and land mass. This, along with the Astros’ and Rangers’ healthy attendance numbers, suggest there’s plenty of room for a third team in Texas.

Demographically, Austin looks good. For one, its population is male-dominated. It joins San Jose and Las Vegas as the only major cities without a major league team where more than half of the population is male. Austin also has relatively few residents older than 65.

Perhaps most importantly, Austin is home to a lot of high earners. Aside from San Jose, its incomes are markedly higher than each of the other cities considered. Austin’s economy is not only strong, but is also on the upswing. Its Gross Domestic Product per capita grew faster than any other major U.S. city last year, according to the Brookings Institute. Given its large male population, burgeoning economy, lack of old-timers and warm climate, Austin looks like an excellent landing spot for a big league club.

Austin has also proven its worth through the popularity of its minor league team, the Round Rock Express. The Texas Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate has had either the highest or second-highest average attendance in the Pacific Coast League in each of the last eight years, rivaled only by the Sacramento River Cats. Speaking of which…

4) Sacramento

Sacramento is a ways behind its top-ranking neighbor San Jose, but still appears to have what it takes to support a major league team. Economically, Sacramento boasts high incomes and low levels of poverty, both of which bode well for a city’s ability to support a big league club. Additionally, Sacramento’s population is predominantly white and non-Hispanic — just seven percent of its population identifies as black, and 20 percent identifies as Hispanic. Throw in its warm climate, and there’s a lot to like about Sacramento.

There are also non-theoretical data to support the city’s case. The Giants’ Triple-A affiliate — the Sacramento River Cats — currently occupy Sacramento, and have boasted the highest average attendance in the Pacific Coast League in eight of the last 10 years, including 2013 and 2014.

Sacramento’s demographics look good, but my model doesn’t know that it’s less than 100 miles east of San Francisco, which already has two big league teams. And judging by the A’s attendance figures, Northern California might already be overbooked with the teams it has.

Adding a sixth California team in Sacramento may not be feasible, but moving a current California team there might be. If things don’t end up working out between the A’s and San Jose, Sacramento seems like a solid fallback option. The A’s don’t seem particularly interested in fleeing the Bay Area for Sacramento, but that could easily change if MLB continues to block them from moving to San Jose.

5) Providence

Providence’s appearance on this list seems a little fishy considering it hasn’t hosted a major sports team in over 60 years: The Providence Steamrollers of the NBA left Rhode Island back in 1949. But demographically, Providence looks an awful lot like a baseball town.

In terms of age, Providence’s population looks good. Its median age of 39.8 ranks highest among major U.S. cities that don’t have a team. This inevitably means it also has a large swath of people older than 65, but it doesn’t have nearly as many as cities like Tampa, Miami and Pittsburgh. Providence also features a mostly white, non-Hispanic population. Just five percent of its population identifies as black, and only 11 percent as Hispanic.

Providence looks good according to my model, but my model’s also blind to Providence’s close proximity to Boston, which certainly adds a layer of complexity. The Red Sox would obviously fight to block a second team from coming to New England. Still, given how well the Red Sox draw, it’s not ridiculous to think New England might be able to accommodate another team.

However, the attendance numbers from the Pawtucket Red Sox suggest otherwise. Although they’re affiliated with a team that’s immensely popular in the region, the Paw Sox have put up middling attendance numbers in the International League the last few years. Of course, with the PawSox moving to Providence that could change, but then again the Red Sox owners now have a stake in the PawSox, making it all the more likely they would fight major league expansion there. Major league baseball in Rhode Island still looks like a long shot.

8) Charlotte

Charlotte is a name that comes up pretty often in discussions of new major league cities. Charlotte doesn’t do terribly per my model, but there a few reasons to doubt its viability as a major league city. Most notably, it has a black- and female-heavy population, which doesn’t jibe with the typical baseball fan.

Charlotte doesn’t have many weaknesses aside from these two drawbacks, but still ranks pretty low due to its absence of strengths. Its income and education demographics are middle-of-the-road, and it’s significantly colder than cities like Las Vegas and Austin. It also doesn’t help that Charlotte has an NFL team (the Carolina Panthers) that would likely snatch some potential fans away.

Charlotte does have a couple of things going for it. With 2.3 million residents, it is the 24th-largest city in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and the third-largest that’s without a big league team. Charlotte also has the perfect age demographic for supporting a big league team: An older population, but few people older than 65. Baseball in Charlotte wouldn’t be a crazy idea, but there are other cities that seem like more viable destinations.

The Charlotte Knights — the White Sox Triple-A affiliate — have a very unusual attendance history. They ranked near the bottom of the International League in average attendance from 2005 through 2013, before randomly leading the league in attendance last season. The improvement was nice, but it also may have had everything to do with their new ballpark. The jury is still out, but odds are the attendance spike isn’t sustainable.

9) Portland, Ore.

Portland is another city that gets a lot of play during expansion talks, and the city appears more than willing to take on a team. However, based on the available data, it isn’t clear that things would work out in Portland.

Portland does have a few things going for it. Like Charlotte, its age demographic is ideal. It also has few black and Hispanic residents, which bodes well for the city’s attendance figures. However, the city rates no better than average in every other category, with its cold climate acting as its biggest detractor.

After a few years of no affiliated baseball in Portland, the Hillsboro Hops — the Diamondbacks’ short-season A-ball affiliate — brought baseball back to Portland in 2013. In terms of average attendance, the Hops ranked third out of the eight teams in the Northwest League in both years of their existence.

10) Nashville

Unsurprisingly, Nashville looks a lot like Charlotte, which means Nashville also doesn’t look particularly well suited to host a major league team. Like its southern counterpart, Nashville is dinged for its female-heavy population, and doesn’t grade out particularly well anywhere else. The presence of an NFL team (the Tennessee Titans) also doesn’t help matters.

The Nashville Sounds, the Triple-A affiliate for the Oakland A’s, haven’t had much luck in getting fans into their ballpark. They’ve ranked in the bottom half of the Pacific Coast League in average attendance for each of the last 10 years.

13) San Antonio

Austin rated as one of the best locales for a new big league team, but San Antonio — its nearby neighbor to the southwest — ranks near the bottom. Although Austin and San Antonio are less than 80 miles apart, they are two different cities. Most notably, San Antonio’s economy pales in comparison to Austin’s. San Antonio has 400,000 more people, yet its economy is $8 billion smaller. This is largely because Austin’s economy is more skewed towards finance, insurance, real estate and business services — all industries that pay high wages.

The two cities look much different demographically as well. Compared to Austin, San Antonio has fewer males (49.2 percent vs. 50.1 percent), more people 65 or older (11 percent vs. 8 percent) and significantly more Hispanic residents (32 percent vs. 54 percent). Frankly, San Antonio looks nothing like a city that would attract baseball fans to the ballpark.

Given the data outlined above, it’s no surprise that the San Antonio Missions — the Double-A affiliate for the San Diego Padres — have had dismal attendance numbers year after year. Their average attendance has been the worst in the Texas League in each of the last five years.

15) San Juan, PR

At first glance, major league baseball in Puerto Rico sounds like a great idea. Adding a team there would cause a significant bump in international exposure. And San Juan — Puerto Rico’s capital — is a bustling metropolis with a population greater than four of the 25 American with big league teams.

But there are a plethora of reasons why it just wouldn’t work. The most glaring is Puerto Rico’s large Hispanic population. Cities with a lot of Hispanic residents tend to have lower attendance numbers, and with 99 percent of its population identifying as Hispanic, San Juan is off the charts. In fairness, San Juan’s Hispanic percentage is significantly higher than any of the cities that went into building my model, so San Juan may not be getting a fair shake. But even if I set its Hispanic percentage to the big city average of 23 percent, San Juan’s projected attendance still ranks last among large cities without big league baseball.

Even ignoring San Juan’s ethnicity demographic, there’s still plenty of reason to think baseball in Puerto Rico. Chiefly, it’s not clear that San Juan’s economy would be able to support a big league team. Every city that currently houses a team has a median family income that’s at least double San Juan’s $26,000 mark. Disposable incomes in San Juan are just crazy low compared to those in the U.S. As if that weren’t enough, San Juan’s population is also female-dominated — 47.5 percent of San Juan’s population is male.

What about the cities that are already occupied?

We don’t need a statistical model to tell us New York, Los Angeles and Chicago can support a major league team. Each already fits two comfortably. But might one of these three mega-cities be able to accommodate a third? Unfortunately, my model can’t really weigh in since it was built for MSA-level analysis. But based purely on population, the answer is a resounding yes.

While all three of these cities have twice as many teams as any other, New York and L.A. both have significantly more than twice as many people. By the yardstick of people per franchise, New York is eons above the rest, and L.A. is near the top of the list. Single-team cities Dallas and Philadelphia also rank high on this list, and the Rangers’ and Phillies’ attendance numbers suggest these cities might be under-booked with just one team each (let’s not forget that Philly actually did house two teams for more than 50 years.

It’s obviously not that simple. In each of these cities, the current teams have been established for years, which might make it challenging for a new team to penetrate the market. For instance, to be successful, a third New York team would need to find a way to lure Yankees and Mets fans away from their respective clubs. Still, with a population that’s pushing 20 million, its hard to think the New York region couldn’t accommodate a third team — perhaps in Brooklyn or Northern New Jersey.

However, it might be in baseball’s best interest to expand into new areas, rather adding another team in a densely populated city. Attendance numbers aside, MLB would undoubtedly benefit from the ability to promote its brand to people in untapped pockets of the country. Or perhaps outside of it.

International Cities

Up to this point, I’ve limited my analysis to cities located in the U.S. (and Puerto Rico). But let’s now broaden our horizon. Expanding into new international markets is certainly a feasible proposition for MLB, and new commissioner Rob Manfred appears to be gung-ho for the idea.

There has not been a lot of talk about expansion,” Manfred said. “In terms of internationalizing the game, North America, in terms of sustained international activity, is someplace we need to focus. Canada, Mexico, if we were going to think about it, those would be the kinds of places that I would be interested in.” With the markets MLB would consider in North America, would it seem as if the best available markets are not U.S. markets? “I think that is probably right,” Manfred said.

Based on that, it seems that — if Manfred had his way — the next expansion would include at least one team in an international market. This doesn’t necessarily mean things will go down this way, but at the very least, he’s very open to the idea of adding a second team outside of U.S. borders. My model was built using U.S. Census data, which obviously isn’t available for locales outside of the U.S. But even if I can’t directly apply my model to foreign cities, I can still evaluate these cities using the lessons gleaned from the data. I’ll start in Canada and work my way south. Canada Canada has three cities with populations that might be considered large enough to support a major league team: Toronto (six million people), Montreal (four million) and Vancouver (two and a half million). Economically, Toronto is head and shoulders above the rest. The Greater Toronto region has a GDP of $276 billion — larger than Montreal and Vancouver combined. This isn’t merely an instance of sheer population size, either, as Toronto’s per capita GDP is significantly higher than its Canadian competitors as well. It also has a substantially younger population, both in terms of median age and share of population over 65. All in all, it’s not particularly surprising that the Toronto Blue Jays have consistently put up respectable attendance figures over the years. Toronto was clearly the pick of the litter, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Montreal and Vancouver couldn’t also be good landing spots. Montreal seems to be the obvious choice due to its large population, but if we’ve learned anything from baseball’s Florida teams (and the Montreal Expos), it’s that it takes more than a large population to get butts in the seats. A city’s population demographics also play a role, and Vancouver looks pretty good in that regard. Vancouver edges Montreal in per capita GDP, unemployment rate, share of population that’s male, and age demographic. Vancouver has a higher median age than Montreal, but has a lower share of its population older than 65: Just the right mix to drive attendance figures. Whenever the topic of international expansion comes up, most look to Montreal, but Vancouver should also receive consideration. Although Montreal has the population advantage and the warmer weather, Vancouver looks better demographically, and it’s not particularly close. Plus, although Montreal was a baseball city not long ago, it wasn’t a good baseball city, at least not by the barometer of attendance. Perhaps Vancouver would fare better. Whether the Seattle Mariners would (or could) put the kibosh on baseball in Vancouver is a whole other can of worms, but the data suggest baseball in Vancouver has a chance. For what it’s worth, the Vancouver Canadians — the Blue Jays’ Low-A affiliate — have had the second-highest attendance in the Northwest League in nine of the last 10 years. Only the Spokane Indians (out of Spokane, Wash.) have managed to outdraw Vancouver. Mexico If MLB decides to expand into Mexico, it would almost certainly start with Mexico’s largest city: Mexico City. With 21 million people, Mexico City is the ninth-most populous city in the world. However, relative to its population size, Mexico City’s economy is actually quite small. Mexico City ranks just 251st in the world in terms of GDP per capita. It essentially has New York City’s population, but has an economy the size of Dallas. The average person in Mexico City makes far less than the average American, which means they also have less money to spend on going to baseball games. Even so, given its insanely large pool of residents, you have to figure a team in Mexico City would do OK. Mexico’s second and third largest cities — Guadalajara and Monterrey — face the same problem Mexico City does. While both cities are fairly large — each has more than four million residents — their per capita GDPs rank 259th and 204th in the world respectively according to Brookings. Their raw GDP numbers fall in line with Milwaukee and Kansas City, which happen to be the smallest cities to currently house a major league team. If there are doubts about Mexico City, those doubts amplify tenfold for Guadalaraja and Monterrey. Both share Mexico City’s low income demographic, and also have less than a quarter of Mexico City’s population. As a developing country, Mexico’s incomes fall well short of those found in domestic cities. It’s reasonable to think the sheer number of people living in Mexico City might be enough to support a team, but expansion into Mexico would likely have to end there. Simply put, no other Mexican city has enough disposable income swirling around to generate even passable attendance numbers. Incomes in Mexico are just far too low. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic Publicly available demographic data for Santo Domingo are pretty hard to come by, but even if they were readily available, they probably wouldn’t be much help. Santo Domingo’s population looks significantly different from most U.S. cities, so it’s doubtful my model would be helpful in this scenario. The most striking difference has to do with age demographics. People don’t live nearly as long in the Dominican as they do in the U.S. The median age in the Dominican is a shockingly low 25 years old, compared to 38 in the U.S. Like Mexico, the Dominican Republic is a developing country, which puts its incomes and standards of living well below those found in the U.S. In fact, the Dominican is actually even worse off than Mexico. Per the World Bank, the average income in the D.R. is about $6,000 compared to Mexico’s $10,000. Santo Domingo has some redeeming factors. With 3.7 million residents, its population is larger than 12 cities that currently host a big league club. Additionally, the Dominican has long been a baseball hotbed. A total of 618 Dominican-born players have played in the majors, including 143 who played in 2014. Nonetheless, it’s just hard to get past those modest incomes. With so little money on the island, it’s hard to envision a major league franchise generating enough attendance revenue to stay afloat. Havana, Cuba Havana is the real wild card of the bunch. Cuba has been in a state of political turmoil for years, which makes adding a team there a dicey proposition to say the least. Although President Barack Obama has taken steps to restore diplomatic relations with Cuba, it’s anyone’s guess as to what the situation will be like in five or 10 years, or however long it would take to bring major league baseball to Cuba. Word on the street is that Havana will host an exhibition game or two next spring. This would undoubtedly be a great first step in expanding MLB’s presence in Cuba, but it’s still a far cry from having a big league team stationed there. Political issues aside, Havana’s economy is likely far too small to host a big league team. With 2.1 million people, its population is smaller than 22 of the 25 cities with big league teams, and its incomes are far lower. Just like in Santo Domingo, there’s just not a huge income base from which to draw. … This aim of this analysis was to identify the cities that would be best suited to support a major league team by the barometer of attendance. However, maximizing attendance shouldn’t be the only goal in MLB’s future expansion plans. For instance, dropping a team in Charlotte — a city where 22 percent of the population identifies as black — might not yield the best attendance figures, but it would bring baseball into a new market. That market may not look like baseball’s current fan base, but that’s far from a bad thing, and certainly doesn’t mean Charlotte is unworthy of a big league team. Sure, baseball’s viewership largely consists of old, white men, but this shouldn’t be viewed as an immutable truth. Perhaps adding a team in Charlotte would bump major league’s black viewership from nine percent to 12 percent, which might be enough to make such a move worthwhile. Take this analysis for what it is: An objective exploration of the factors that drive major league attendance. As with any predictive model, it shouldn’t be treated as gospel. Nor should it be used as a stand-alone to make normative judgments about where baseball should or shouldn’t expand. Nonetheless, I think this exercise uncovered some interesting — even if unsurprising — truths about baseball’s fan base. I hope these findings will make it easier to objectively evaluate location decisions whenever the topic of expansion or relocation comes up in the future. References and Resources U.S. Census: American Community Survey, 2013 1-year estimates; 2009-2013 5-year-estimates

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Weatherbase.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Nielsen: Year in Sports Media Report, 2013

World Bank

Brookings Institute: Global Metro Monitor