They combined to win 204 games during the regular season, when each lineup raced past the former home run record and slugged their way to division crowns.

So when the ALDS opens with Game 1 on Friday night at Yankee Stadium between the Twins and Yankees, what will be the difference between advancing to the ALCS or going home?

Based on the amount of home runs — Minnesota hit 307 to the Yankees’ 306 — and what transpired at Target Field, where the Yankees took two of three in late July as the teams combined for 57 runs, many are predicting a home-run orgy and base runners looking like marbles unleashed in a bath tub.

According to a talent evaluator with knowledge of each team, misplaced pitches to the muscle-bound lineups will play a big part in who wins the best-of-five affair, but don’t expect the scoreboards to blow out bulbs.

“I don’t think it will be a slugfest. I think they will be tight games that will swing on pitching mistakes,’’ the scout said. “It will come down to which staff makes the least amount of mistakes. Both teams have good mistake hitters.’’

Because aces such as Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Hyun-Jin Ryu aren’t working this series, there could be plenty of chances to make a pitcher pay for missing location with a fastball or hanging an off-speed pitch.

While the Yankees have question marks when it comes to James Paxton (glute), Luis Severino (just three starts this year) and Masahiro Tanaka (will he be used to back up an opener?), a deep and talented bullpen will be used at any point in any game.

The Twins don’t have big names and expensive arms in their pen, but the numbers suggest their relievers are in the same class as the Yankees, who have multiple power arms who get paid a lot of money.

The Twins’ bullpen ERA was 4.18 (fifth in the AL) and the Yankees were at 4.31 (sixth). Each pen posted 50 saves, and the Yankees’ .248 batting average against was nine points better than the Twins’ .257.

Despite the closeness of the numbers, the scout believes the Yankees have the advantage.

“I am not sold on the Twins’ pitching,’’ the scout said. “And the Yankees crush just about every mistake. They do more damage and are more confident. It’s advantage, Yankees.’’

Yet, it’s not like Yankees pitchers execute every pitch. They gave up 248 homers, which were the fifth-most in the AL. Of course, they worked 81 home games where the Yankee Stadium right-field seats attract balls as if there are horsehide magnets on the armrests.

“Both lineups are trained to do that, power you into the ground,’’ a scout said when asked what the series will feature. “Looking forward to a really good series and the Yankees in four or five [games]. I expect high-scoring games, long games and a lot of pitching changes because they are trying to win today.’’

A person who actually will have a hand in the outcome is going against the notion that home plate will be dented as often as voices believe.

Brett Gardner doesn’t expect a repeat of those three games at Target Field because the leash on pitchers in October is shorter than at any time in the regular season.

“Pitching is pretty important,” Gardner said. “If a guy gets in trouble during the season you leave him out there. In the postseason you pull the plug and go to the next guy.”

And wait for a mistake to crush.