10 of 10

Now that we've seen the keys, here's the biggest one: actually winning the games.

Miami must win the games they're supposed to win, then pull off a few upsets.

Looking at the schedule, the games the Dolphins are "supposed to win" are Week 2 against Oakland, Week 3 against the Jets, Week 4 at Arizona, Week 6 against St. Louis, Week 9 against the Colts, Week 10 against Tennessee and Week 15 against Jacksonville.

That's seven games. If Miami wins those, then pulls off one upset, they would finish 8-8. I didn't count the game against the Jets in the Meadowlands as "winnable" because Jets vs. Dolphins is somewhat of a venue call. So that would be one upset, with other possibilities all over the schedule.

The good news is Miami's schedule isn't too difficult, but that's based on last year's results.

Every year is different, and a game that looks winnable at the start of the year may not stay that way. Teams on paper are different than on the field. For example, the Dolphins have no business even competing with the Houston Texans in Houston on Sunday. However, we know how it can be in the NFL, and I'm reminded of 2003, when a team had no business even competing with the Miami Dolphins at home opening week.

Of course, I'm referring to the Houston Texans.

Miami could storm into Houston and beat the Texans, thus setting them on a tailspin from which their season never recovers as they fall to 6-10. By then, a possibly 9-7 Dolphins team could look back on that Texans game and think "Why was it even as close as it was?"

So while winning the winnable games is the most important part of finishing 8-8 (or better, which is the hope, of course), remember that this isn't the NBA, where if you wager on the Heat winning the Eastern Conference, you're making a fairly safe bet.

Every year, teams that are Super Bowl contenders somehow finish 6-10, while teams that are supposed to finish 6-10 wind up hosting a playoff game.

Isn't that correct, 2008 Miami Dolphins and 2011 San Francisco 49ers?

While you may still have doubt about the Dolphins (and even after writing this I do), hang on to this quote:

Just know that there's a good team waiting for the right opportunity here. If they can catch even a couple of breaks, the Dolphins could even become relevant. Bill Barnwell, "A Dolphin Tale," August 7, 2012.

Let the games begin! See you this Sunday!

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