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“I think that the government doesn’t really have a defined agenda at the moment,” said Tom Flanagan, a former Harper strategist and recently retired University of Calgary political scientist.

Free trade deals and pipelines are important, but both those priorities rely on decisions Mr. Harper can’t control.

“I think the way they’re addressing current problems is to be non-communicative about them,” Mr. Flanagan said. ‘‘I think that they need to address these problems and issues head on and then do it hard while filling in the news vacuum with an agenda.”

Stephen Taylor, director of the National Citizens Coalition, said the party needs to come up with ‘‘five priorities or something’’ to change the channel for the next election.

“It needs to have a clearly enunciated position that becomes the talk of the town,’’ he said, ‘‘instead of what they don’t want to be the talk of the town.”

Mr. Flanagan points to Brian Mulroney’s free trade agreement with the U.S. — a wildly polarizing proposition that split the left. Mr. Harper needs something like that to carry the party into the next election, Mr. Flanagan said.

“It has to be something that’s so polarizing that both the Liberals and the NDP will be forced to be on the other side. That’s how the Conservatives win, through polarization.”

2. The Poll-acles are Not Favourable

Recent polls suggest Justin Trudeau’s Liberals would sweep the ballot box to a majority government. So what?