A pedestrian wearing a protective mask takes a smartphone photograph of an almost empty Nanjing Road in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2020. Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images

China's smartphone shipments for the three months ending in March could decline by more than 30% from the same period a year ago, International Data Corporation said on Tuesday. The world's largest smartphone market could experience a so-called "Black Swan effect" in the first half of the calendar year due to the new coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 1,000 people on the mainland, according to the research firm. A black swan is said to be a rare, unpredictable event with potentially severe consequences.

China smartphone shipments to drop more than 30%

"The coronavirus outbreak impacted the Lunar New Year's shopping season in late January and is also expected to have adverse effects in the following months," IDC said in a statement, adding that it expects "China's smartphone shipments to drop more than 30% year-on-year in 2020Q1." The virus outbreak will also "create uncertainty in product launch plans, the supply chain, and distribution channels, in the mid and long term," IDC said. Research firm Canalys earlier this month predicted China's smartphone shipments could drop by as much as 50% between the last three months of 2019 and the first three months of 2020. "Technology vendors are likely to stall marketing activities as they are unlikely to divert attention to new product launches, such as 5G devices," Canalys said in a Feb. 3 report. "It will take time for vendors to change their product launch roadmaps in China, which is likely to dampen 5G shipments in 2020."

5G refers to the fifth generation of high-speed mobile internet that aims to provide faster data speeds and more bandwidth to carry growing levels of web traffic. Others have also said that the outbreak could delay China's plans to roll out 5G services. IDC pointed out in its Tuesday report that 5G handsets would require lower pricing, better network coverage, and attractive use cases to create a good value proposition for consumers.

New virus strain killed more than 1,000