EDITED 11/7/24 (Original post contained erroneous results. A reminder to double-check your math!)

Greetings all. Hope everyone had a stellar week.

Obligatory explanation of these rankings:

For anyone new to my rankings, they are based entirely on this year’s statistics. (which is why the model was not very predictive in the early weeks). All team level statistics for each game (the most important being passing and rushing yards and TDs) are crunched to determine the relative importance of match up vs. team ability, as well as the importance of game location (i.e. home v. away). This information is then used to project team-level statistics for the coming week. I then look at the distribution of these stats between individual players based on their historical contributions, with a recency bias and taking into account injury status. Using standard fantasy scoring, I then project fantasy points for each individual player and rank accordingly. Although these are coming out on Friday, the results of Thursday’s game are not taken into account in any rankings, including those that played yesterday.

Model Performance:

I’m also tracking how well the model performs each week. I determine a number of metrics, including start/sit analysis, my average projected point deviation from actual points scored, average rank deviation, and Spearman’s rank correlation. This gives you an idea of how much stock you should put in my rankings and gives me an idea of what types of adjustments I might need to make to my model. After a great week 8, last week was so so. I continued to see improvements at WR, RB, TE, and K. My DST and QB rankings continue to lag behind FantasyPros (and QuickOnTheDrawl for DST), but I beat out VIRMD’s K rankings for the 2nd week in a row.

This Week’s Rankings:

Here are some important players I’m expecting to be out this week for one reason or another:

Nick Foles: Even when Foles recovers from his injury, it’s unclear if he’ll be the starting QB for PHI. Given the efficiency of the Chip Kelly offense, I’m expecting Mark Sanchez to perform comparably to Foles, if not see some fewer turnovers.

Mike Glennon: In case you haven’t heard, TB has decided to return to Josh McCown as their starting QB. I’m treating McCown as a direct replacement and do not have this change affecting any of the receiving corps.

Sammy Watkins: Suffered a groin injury that was serious enough to warrant an MRI. The results of the MRI haven’t been reported, but Watkins hasn’t practiced since the injury this week. I expect him to sit this week. I expect Watkins targets will be distributed between Robert Woods, Mike Williams, and Chris Hogan.

Fred Jackson: He’s been practicing on a limited basis this week, but all signs suggest that this week is too early. Expect Jackson to make his return next week. Anthony Dixon is the main beneficiary, as he was last week.

Rashad Jennings: He’s getting closer, but not there yet.

Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas: Neither appears to be ready. Ingram will continue to get the bulk of the work, with a few touches for Cadet.

Here are some players that I’m expecting to play this week:

Tony Romo: He flew to London and has been practicing. Weedon was completely ineffective against Arizona last week. I don’t expect him to be as accurate or to throw as many deep balls as when he’s healthy, but I expect Romo to play.

Lions’ TEs: Joseph Fuaria, Eric Ebron, and Brandon Pettigrew will all be back coming off of the bye. I like Ebron the best of these, but it’s not entirely clear how work will be distributed among these three, so I would avoid them if you can.

Emmanuel Sanders: He’s listed as questionable, but his status is based on an injury he suffered during last week’s game that he was able to play through.

Doug Baldwin: Suffered a groin injury last week, but was able to practice on a limited basis yesterday, so should go this week.

Lamar Miller: Suffered a shoulder injury last week, but appears to be good to go for this week.

As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and/or criticism. Best of luck in week 10!