If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be the end

One of the significant constitutional changes that came out of the coalition era was a process for MPs to be recalled. We saw this used for the first time in Northern Ireland last year and we are seeing a recall petition taking place in Peterborough at the moment.

The law lays down specific circumstances in which ia petition can be triggered and one of them is the MP being convicted of parliamentary expenses fraud as has happened in Brecon and Radnor.

At the 2015 general election the Tories took the long-standing Liberal Democrat seat which is the largest constituency by land area in England and Wales. The party retained second place in that election and in 2017 and if there was a by-election would throw absolutely everything into it.

Because it is sheer size and lots of distant remote communities a lot depends on good organisation – things like established delivery networks which can be difficult to organise from scratch.

If a recall petition is held and succeeds then my money would be on the LDs fighting hard to re-take seat in a by-election. That would present Mrs May or whoever is leading the Tory party with an even bigger headache and reduce the Conservatives effective majority with the DUP by 2.

So you can expect a battle royale with both the blue and yellow teams throwing absolutely everything into it.

Is it going to happen? I’d say yes to the recall petition the question being whether the required 10% of the electorate threshold would be reached.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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