Marine Le Pen, the National Front candidate, dismisses her rival for the French presidency in Sunday's second-round vote as an aloof defender of the moneyed classes.

But don't be fooled: Emmanuel Macron is no radical free trader. The former Rothschild banker has taken a surprisingly defensive stance on trade that is now set to shape EU policy over the coming years.

Macron, the clear favorite to win the presidency, has laid out an unambiguously retaliatory agenda of how he wants to bolster the EU's trade arsenal against Asian exporters such as China. His timing could hardly be better, as the departure of the free-trading U.K. from the EU removes one of the chief obstacles to a tougher position against Beijing and other Asian exporters.

"Reciprocity" is set to become the buzzword for the strategy underpinning the trade agenda in the EU's now undisputed Franco-German engine room. The logic is that big Asian manufacturers should be welcome to sell in Europe and bid for contracts, but only as long as there's a level playing field for European companies trying to do business out east.

“We have had a naive approach to globalization,” Macron wrote in his election program. “Globalization is a tough fight because not everyone always respects the rules ... So we will turn the protection of European industry into one of the major pillars of reinventing the EU.”

The most striking element of the election program is his proposal for a "Buy European Act" to restrict public procurement in the EU to companies that have at least half of their production in Europe.

A classic social liberal, Macron is no protectionist. He was specifically drafted in as a centrist economy minister in 2014 to extinguish the fires ignited by his predecessor.

Companies have been pushing for action in this territory for many years. France's Alstom, for example, has long argued that Europe is far more open to Asian companies in big public rail contracts, than Asian governments are to EU companies.

The "Buy European Act" is, however, likely to be one step too far for the European Commission and the Germans and would be an early source of tension if Macron pursued the idea as president.

Liberal outlook

A classic social liberal, Macron is no protectionist. He was specifically drafted in as a centrist economy minister in 2014 to extinguish the fires ignited by his predecessor Arnaud Montebourg, a far more confrontational leftist.

Macron also supported a landmark EU trade deal with Canada last year, although he acknowledges it may need amendments. Le Pen, by contrast, slammed the Ottawa-Brussels pact as "dangerous."

While Le Pen has called for the re-establishment of traditional borders to stem the onslaught of globalization, Macron has pushed back hard against that idea. He accused Le Pen of opportunism for seeking to translate her anti-globalization message to the case of the appliance-maker Whirlpool, whose factory in Amiens is shifting jobs from France to Poland.

"The response to what is happening is not to suppress globalization or to close borders. Those who say that are lying," he said.

Macron's immediate focus on trade defense is likely to be on the EU's retaliatory tools, like tariffs against countries flooding Europe with goods priced below the cost of production. Despite being the most pro-European candidate in the presidential race, Macron has attacked the EU for “imperfectly” regulating international competition and not providing “effective and deterring tools to control foreign investments and to punish social, fiscal and environmental dumping.”

Macron even went so far as to warn in a recent BBC interview that he feared France could crash out of the EU unless the bloc underwent major reform.

"As a minister, Emmanuel Macron has already worked towards hardening anti-dumping measures," said Sylvie Goulard, who is one of Macron's closest advisers on EU issues and also a liberal member of the European Parliament. "His line is clear: Yes to openness, but with safeguards ... to punish wrongdoings when necessary. Protectionism is not the solution ... but unregulated trade is not acceptable either."

Pay-back time

In February, Germany, France and Italy wrote to European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström, demanding that she apply "the principle of reciprocity" towards other countries that shut EU investors out of their markets.

This has been a long-running sore for many of Europe's biggest businesses, who are forced to share ownership and know-how with Chinese companies when building plants in China, while Chinese investors have bought some of the most strategically important firms in Europe, such as German robot-maker Kuka.

Strong action on this tit-for-tat dossier of reciprocity — both in terms of foreign investment rules and public procurement — was difficult while Britain was a force in the EU. Free-traders such as the U.K. and Sweden argued that reciprocity would be counterproductive and would distort competition: restricting Asian businesses would rob the European economy of capital for future innovations, they argued.

But there is no doubt that, after Brexit, the center of gravity is shifting to Paris and Berlin, which should swing the debate in favor of action on reciprocity.

In Germany, which also holds a parliamentary election in September, both leading political groups — Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of her rival Martin Schulz — are already gearing up for an economic alliance with Macron.

Michael Fuchs, deputy whip of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag said reciprocity was “an important approach ... It cannot be that the Chinese only allow our investors to make acquisitions of up to 49 percent while they are taking over companies [in Europe] on a large scale.”

“I would like to see a strengthened cooperation between Berlin and Paris that pushes EU trade policy forward,” he added.

Another cornerstone of Macron's program is the imposition of sanctions on countries that do not respect social and environmental clauses in trade agreements. While Fuchs expressed skepticism about that and warned against “overloading” trade deals, Germany's Social Democrats welcome the idea as it chimes with their goal of making trade "fairer."

Bernd Westphal, a senior SPD lawmaker, said Schulz would also seize on this demand in his election campaign.

Goulard welcomed the support in Germany but said the project focused on changing all of Europe. "We also need to rally other countries, in particular the northern ones who are very dependent on exports and thus very sensitive to trade barriers," she said.

'Buy European'

The Germans are not, however, greeting Macron's program with unalloyed enthusiasm — and there may be trouble ahead.

Fuchs warned against “stepping too much on the feet of the Chinese” since they could retaliate. “Particularly Germany, as an exporting nation, would suffer from that,” he said.

The European Commission has also clearly stated that it opposes plans for a "Buy European Act."

Politicians in Berlin also flatly opposed that most contentious element of Macronomics: the "Buy European Act," which would bolster Europe-based producers in public procurement.

“We cannot tell Trump that we don't think those measures are correct, but then do the same thing,” said Fuchs. Wespthal from the SPD echoed the concerns: “Open markets guarantee prosperity, technological innovation and the best price for consumers," he said.

The European Commission has also clearly stated that it opposes plans for a "Buy European Act."

“We will never advocate a ‘buy European only’ policy,” Commission Vice-President Jyrki Katainen and Internal Market Commissioner Elżbieta Bieńkowska wrote in an op-ed last month.

Goulard insisted the EU needed the act "because other continents have similar legislation" and argued that the move would give Europe more strength in negotiations.

"At least temporarily ... this tool can rebalance relationships that nowadays are too asymmetrical. Reciprocity in the opening of markets must be the objective."