Operatives in both parties believe Blum ranks among the most vulnerable House Republicans, with the combination of a tough district and a formidable challenger in Democratic state Rep. Abby Finkenauer. And Blum is also facing an Ethics Committee investigation relating to his failure to disclose his role as CEO of a company. Trump carried the district by 3 points in 2016 after it backed Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Race Rating: Toss-up

Rothfus moves up a spot due to a tough situation that hasn’t gotten better for him in the last few months. Congressional redistricting shifted his district outside of Pittsburgh to one that Trump would have carried by just 2 points. He’s still facing Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb, who won a special election in a neighboring district in March. Lamb and Rothfus both had nearly $2.1 million in the bank at the end of June, but Lamb also benefits from high name recognition due to the high-profile special election.

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

The Virginia sophomore moves down a spot, but remains one of the most vulnerable incumbents in a district that backed Hillary Clinton and Gov. Ralph Northam by double digits in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Comstock overperformed Trump in 2016 and has worked to distance herself from her party and the president on some issues. But Democrats are attacking her over her support for the GOP tax plan and A rating from the National Rifle Association. She’s facing a well-funded and well-known Democratic opponent in state Sen. Jennifer Wexton. Comstock’s suburban district is just the kind that Democrats think can help them win the House.

Race Rating: Tilts Democratic

The Minnesota freshman is locked in a rematch with 2016 Democratic nominee Angie Craig, who ended July with more cash on hand in a district Trump narrowly carried. Past controversial comments Lewis made on his radio talk show have resurfaced in recent months, reopening an issue from the 2016 campaign. Craig lost that race by less than 2 points, with a third-party candidate taking 8 percent of the vote. That candidate isn’t on the ballot this year, and Craig is running in a more favorable national environment with the help of a new campaign team.

Race Rating: Toss-up



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