Updated January 1, 2020 to reflect more information. "Baby step" is being too kind; this is a complete capitulation to industry that portends a lax regulatory environment for e-cigs as companies submit their premarket applications.

Press reports on New Year’s eve indicated that the White House will allow the FDA to stop allowing the sales of flavored e-cigarettes except menthol for closed systems (like Juul pods), but continue to all sales of flavored tank (open) systems.

This is a big win for the big tobacco companies (including Juul) because menthol is the most important flavor. Juul, like the rest of the big tobacco companies, has been lobbying to keep menthol (and tobacco) flavors.

Why? When Juul stopped selling other flavors, sales of mint skyrocketed and made up the difference. (Menthol is derived from mint.)

As CNN reported when covering the announcement:

Studies published in the medical journal JAMA in November found that nearly 60% of high school students who vape use Juul, the market leader, and mint was the most popular flavor among US 10th and 12th graders. An estimated 2.4 million high school and middle school students use flavored e-cigarettes, one of the studies found. Fruit was the most commonly reported flavor category, at 66.1% for high school and 67.7% for middle school, followed by menthol or mint at 57.3% for high school and 31.1% for middle school.

My guess: We will see big increases in menthol e-cig use once FDA starts enforcing the ban. It will be important for health groups and agencies to monitor sales to see if this situation materializes. The chances that evidence will affect the FDA is small, but it will inform continuing local and state efforts to prohibit flavored e-cigarettes and other tobacco products to fill the vacuum the FDA created.

The exception for tank systems could end up being a big problem and a windfall for vape shops. As the e-cig industry has been taken over by Big Tobacco, the vape shops have been getting squeezed out. If kids shift to vape shops, that could further blunt the effect of the limited action the FDA is taking.

The open systems are also problematic because the user decides what to put in them, meaning that you have no idea what you are getting. In addition, mixing flavors can lead to chemical reactions that can increase toxicity.

It is also a win for Suorin, a popular brand with kids, which uses refillable pods.

This pullback in what the Trump Administration is doing is also a big payoff for the tobacco companies’ longstanding investment in conservative advocacy groups that was transferred over to opposing e-cigarette regulation after Big Tobacco got in the game.

The fact that the Administration announced this on New Year's Eve shows that they know this decision will not be popular with the public. It's a well-establised PR principle to announce unpopular decisions late night or over the weekend in the hopes it will fall into the "news hole" when people are on vacation.

All of this reinforces the reality that in e-cigarette regulation, like everything else in tobacco control, will require continued effort at the local and state level, including comprehensive bans on the sales of flavored tobacco products, including menthol.