The following projection is based on a number of cautious assumptions. I assume a slightly lower cross-party appeal, allocating 40 per cent of Conservative votes to the Ukip defector, 30 per cent of Labour and 30 per cent of Lib Dems. I also give them the support of 90 per cent of those who backed populist right wing parties – Ukip, the BNP and the English Democrats – in 2010. I don't give the imagined Ukip defectors any additional support from non-voters, again in order to make the estimates err on the side of caution. And in order to provide a rough model of the other big shift in English politics, I re-allocate 30 per cent of 2010 Lib Dem voters to Labour.