The think tank 38 North has obtained satellite images that they say show North Korea has begun dismantling key facilities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, which is used to develop engines for ballistic missiles.

38 North report key facts: Commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates dismantling of key facilities has started

Commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates dismantling of key facilities has started The rail-mounted processing/transfer structure has been moved and partly dismantled

The rail-mounted processing/transfer structure has been moved and partly dismantled Most of the vertical engine stand has been removed

It is good news, nuclear expert and MIT Associate Professor Vipin Narang has told PM, "but there are a couple of caveats."

It has taken five weeks for the process to start since the historic summit took place between US President Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong-un.

And the steps taken by North Korea so far are all reversible, says Dr Narang.

"They've removed the super-structure on the static engine test site, but they've kept the concrete, as far as we know," he said.

He says if that's all they do, it can be easily rebuilt, and the same is true of the space launch vehicle facility.

'A far cry from any real step towards disarmament'

Dr Narang says the North Koreans might not even need the Sohae facility to produce the ICBMs and the engines required for long-range missiles, because they may have already perfected them.

"If they've already conducted all the tests they need to, then it really doesn't cost them very much," he said.

"They like pop-up sites and mobile test sites, so it may be that they've just taken steps they would have taken anyway," he said.

No work has been reported at any of the other sites so far, which include the Chamjin Machine Factory test stand, Iha-ri Driver Training and Test Facility test stand, Magunpo Solid Rocket Motor Test Facility, Nampo Shipyard submersible test stand barge, Sinpo South Shipyard submersible test stand barge, Sinpo South Shipyard test stand, and Tonghae (Musudan-ri) Satellite Launch Facility.

In fact, the think tank reported last month that developments appeared to be continuing "at a rapid pace" at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility.

Dr Narang says in some ways, that is consistent with North Korea's stance.

"North Korea has never once said, not once have they said that they're willing to unilaterally disarm and give up their nuclear weapons program.

Close-up of the partially dismantled structure at Sohae. ( Airbus Defense and Space imagery, supplied by 38 North )

"They can blow the engine test site that they don't need anymore, while at the same time mass producing the missiles that they once tested there, and enriching the uranium at Yongbyon, and the covert facility."

Last week, the location of the secret Kangson uranium enrichment facility was reported on in US media.

Dr Narang says the Sohae test site could be destroyed, and North Korea could continue to improve their missile force and produce nuclear weapons.

"So, we shouldn't get too drunk on optimism here," he said.

"It's a good confidence-building measure, but it is a far cry from any real step towards disarmament."

By July 22, significant progress had been made in dismantling the rail-mounted transfer structure on the Sohae launch pad. ( Airbus Defense and Space imagery, supplied by 38 North )

Kicking the can down the road

"We still need to monitor and verify what it is exactly they're doing, and we still want further steps like declaration of all their facilities as a real indication that they're interested in denuclearisation," Dr Narang told PM.

But after the Singapore summit, no measures have been taken to establish substantial measures for verification and monitoring, he says.

"In fact, I think all of the indicators are trending in the wrong direction.

"Pompeo went to Pyongyang — he thought he was going to meet Kim Jong-un but he was just stonewalled for two days, subjected to 'North Korea's gonna, North Korea's gonna'."

The test stand superstructure was completely dismantled by July 22. ( Airbus Defense and Space imagery, supplied by 38 North )

Dr Narang says Mike Pompeo's experience in North Korea indicates that the country will be working on their own timetable.

"Every negotiating point you try to make is going to take forever, and they're going to run out the clock and frustrate you and stonewall before you can even talk about denuclearisation."

He says President Trump's assertion that there is no rush and no time limit is realistic.

"I think we can kick the can down the road on the question of nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament, but if North Korea tests a space launch vehicle, or the temperature rises on the peninsula again and something provocative happens, then Trump will be faced with a dilemma:

"Do you continue to put your head in the sand that the nuclear program is still growing, or is he forced to swing back to the fire and fury threats he was making last year?