November serves as America’s one shot to end Donald Trump’s presidency. While Trump has been formally impeached in the House of Representatives, an official conviction removing him from the presidency in the Republican-controlled Senate is hopeless. Therefore, unless the Democrats can find a candidate who can receive at least 270 votes in the Electoral College, America will be stuck with Trump until January 2025, a scary thought. Because of this, the electability argument is often invoked when assessing candidates in the Democratic Primary: Can this candidate actually defeat Trump and get elected in November? Mainstream media and establishment Democrats have often argued that progressive Democrats will risk losing to Trump, and that a better solution would be to “shift to the center” on core issues to attract centrist voters. However, while mainstream media often uses the concept of electability as a knock on Senator Bernie Sanders, I plan on arguing that Senator Sanders is by far the most electable candidate currently running for the presidency.





When addressing electability, common belief views potential voters under the framework of givens and uncertainties. For example, it is assumed as a given that those who are ideologically to the extremes will vote for their respective candidate, and the uncertainties lie towards the center with the uncommitted voters. It is assumed that a candidate cannot rely strictly on their base, and that they must be able to convince either undecided or opposite-leaning voters to shift their vote in favor of the candidate. However, I believe that this framework is incredibly flawed, given that very few voters are truly undecided in our incredibly polarized world, and that voter turnout numbers are abysmal. For example, when asked to rate the candidates on a 0-100 scale, only nine percent of the 2016 electorate rated Trump and Clinton within fifteen points of each other (1). In other words, the supposed “swing voters” that are deemed crucial to the election only represented nine percent of the electorate. On the other hand, voter turnout in 2016 was a pathetic 55.7% of the possible voting age population. When such a high amount of voters are deciding to stay home, it seems that there is immense untapped potential in actually getting voters to show up to the polls, regardless of whether they are a swing voter or not. Rather than focusing on the undecided swing voters, a serious emphasis should be put on the voters who align ideologically with the candidate, but for whatever reason, decide not to vote.





In trying to get voters to actually vote, a serious factor to be considered must be voter enthusiasm. After all, if voters are enthusiastic about the candidate, logic says that they will be more likely to want to vote for the candidate. Historically this appears to be the case for the Democrats, as candidates such as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama presented offers of change to the status quo, which brought in enthusiasm about their campaigns, while Hillary Clinton lacked voter enthusiasm after appealing to the status quo, and suffered the consequences of voters staying home. When addressing the enthusiasm behind 2020 candidates, Senator Sanders ranks far above the rest of the field. To begin, Sanders has amassed over five million individual donations since declaring his candidacy, marking the first campaign ever to accomplish such a feat. He has raised the most money out of any of the candidates for the past two quarters, amassing a ridiculous $34.5 million in the final three months of 2019 (2). This all comes from an average donation of just $18.53 per contribution, further demonstrating that his campaign is funded by the working class, not simply the wealthy elites. On a similar note, as of December 19th, Sanders has the greatest favorability rating among potential Democratic primary voters at 74 percent. He also holds the lead in the percentage of voters who believe he agrees with them the most on issues, at 28 percent, and on empathy and honesty (26% and 27%, respectively). While Vice President Joe Biden does have a slight edge in favorability among potential Republican voters at fifteen percent favorability, Sanders is not far behind with thirteen percent favorability (3). Therefore, in terms of being liked by potential Democratic voters, Sanders has the clear lead. Not only is he winning in terms of fundraising, but he aligns with the most voters on the issues, and leads on key values such as empathy and honesty.









It is also worth noting that while Sanders trails Biden nationally in polls, he is performing where it matters. Currently, Sanders is polling at an RCP average of 20.3 percent, leaving Warren and Buttigieg far behind, at 14.8% and 7.5%, respectively (4). In the crucial first states of Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders is in a statistical tie for first place. In California, which holds the most delegates in the primary at 416, Sanders led the most recent with 26% of polled potential voters (5). Therefore, despite trailing Biden nationally, Sanders is performing where necessary to begin the campaign, with lots of cash in reserve for advertising when necessary. Given his financial advantage, Sanders will have the ability to spend in later states as he sees fit in an attempt to catch up with Biden.





While mainstream media was quick to write Bernie off as an “extreme” candidate who could not appeal to the masses, it is clear that the reality does not reflect this notion. Senator Bernie Sanders has not only received the most donations by any candidate in history at this point, but he is the most favorable candidate in the field for Democrats. For an election that will rely on a heavy turnout to defeat Donald Trump’s base, Sanders presents a case of high enthusiasm that would stand the best chance to defeat Trump. The Democrats cannot afford to roll with a candidate who does not rally up the leftist base in Joe Biden, as that approach had already failed in 2016 with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The bottom line is simple: If ideologically liberal voters stay home in November, Trump could easily win again. Therefore, the Democrats need a candidate who has demonstrated that he is favorable among Democratic voters, and will mobilize mass enthusiasm to defeat Trump at the polls. This candidate is clearly Senator Bernie Sanders.









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[1] American National Election Studies poll, cited by RealClearPolitics

[2] Forbes article, “2020 Fundraising: Sanders Posts $34.5 Million Haul, Trump Still Far Ahead

“, 1/2/2020

[3] CNN Poll 12/19, “CNN Poll: Joe Biden holds lead heading into December debate”

[4] RealClearPolitics polling, “Latest Polls”

[5] RealClearPolitics polling, “Latest Polls,” Iowa, New Hampshire, California







