Bob Klapisch

NorthJersey

For Yankees’ fans counting down to pitchers and catchers – are there any who haven’t started? – it should be a satisfying winter. The front office and roster will emerge mostly intact, thanks to a 91-win season and a stable front office. There’s no need for a shake-and-bake, although I suspect there’ll still be one or two surprise tweaks.

None of this should drag on past New Year’s, however. To the contrary: Masahiro Tanaka has until three days after the World Series to decide on his opt-out, and GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi will see their contracts expire next month as well. There are two lay-ups and one mystery in this cluster. Surely you know which is which.

Here’s what my crystal ball tells me about the decisions ahead:

Brian Cashman re-ups

He’s flat-out earned a new contract and a big, fat raise not only for guessing right on so many young players, but changing the Yankees’ business model in the process. Gone are the days of pursuing late-prime free agents and being forced to live with the inevitable decay. Cashman valued more-athletic 20-somethings and convinced the Steinbrenner family to go along.

The fact that Cashman already has a good working relationship with Hal Steinbrenner will make this the easiest decision of the off-season. The GM will sign a three-year deal with a club option for a fourth.

Joe Girardi returns, too

Another no-brainer for the organization. Girardi has all the qualities Steinbrenner and Cashman admire, including his diligence and preparation, not to mention a formidable track record. Despite a near decade-long championship drought, Girardi’s teams have never finished below .500. Now they’re ready for a full-blown resurgence similar to what Joe Torre choreographed in the late 90s.

Girardi says he’ll consult his family before deciding if he wants another contract. Fair enough. But he’ll also need to gauge the Yankees’ financial commitment.

With a four-year, $16 million deal coming to an end, the question is whether ownership is willing to go even higher – say, the $5 million that Joe Maddon earns annually, or Mike Scioscia’s $6 million per. Girardi has won a championship, just like those two, and will be seeking parity. Our hunch is that his deal matches Maddon’s.

Tanaka opts out

Why wouldn’t he? The Japanese star’s worth increased exponentially in the post-season and he’d be foolish not to find out exactly how much. Tanaka told reporters after the ALCS that he’d like to return to the Yankees, but don't read too much into that. It would’ve been actual news had he said anything to the contrary.

Put it this way: Tanaka’s agents included the opt-out for a reason, so their client could entertain the idea of making more money elsewhere. Tanaka will zoom straight to the head off an otherwise weak free agent class the moment he walks out the door. There’s no reason for him to say no to that temptation.

Tanaka bolts

Here’s how we arrive at this admittedly risky guess. The Yankees will make every effort to keep their ace right-hander because that’s what he is today – an ace. But team executives have never forgotten the partial tear in Tanaka’s UCL or the fact that it could rupture at any time. A decision was made internally over the summer to let Tanaka go if chooses to opt out.

Of course, that was before his impressive October. And it’s also worth remembering that a faction of the front office vowed to let Alex Rodriguez leave, too, as soon as he opted out in 2007. Nothing is ever set in stone with the Yankees, although they’ve gained far more corporate discipline since the A-Rod era.

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That’s why I can’t envision them getting into a bidding war with the Angels or Mariners, both of whom would invest heavily in Tanaka. The Bombers, after all, will have other options for the rotation.

Shohei Otani signs with the Yankees

Pure speculation, of course, but I’m swayed by reports from almost every Japanese outlet that suggest the 23-year-old pitcher/slugger is craving a higher level of competition. Otani is still two years away from full free agency and is forfeiting millions by leaving Japan early.

But he’s said to be intrigued not only by the major leagues’ elite competition, but by the Yankees in particular. That’s a great conversation starter between the two parties and my hunch is that Otani ends up in the Bronx as a replacement for Tanaka.

CC Sabathia agrees to one-year, $15 million deal

This is one of the rare instances where committing to an aging veteran makes sense. Sabathia earned another contract with his 14-win season, his 10-0 record in starts following a loss – a streak that ended in Game 7 of the ALCS – and unquestioned leadership in the clubhouse.

That’s important in a room filled with younger stars like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, Luis Severino and Didi Gregorius, to name a few. They look up to Sabathia and he enjoys the role of mentor.

Actually Sabathia likes everything about pitching for the Yankees, which is why he’ll be willing to take a $10 million pay cut to prolong his career in Pinstripes, if only for one more summer.

Starlin Castro gets traded

You could substitute the name of several Yankees, because someone has to go, whether it’s Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley or Brett Gardner. But Castro, in particular, is blocking the path of Gleyber Torres, who is fully recovered from elbow surgery and will be in camp in February.

The 20-year-old infielder will almost certainly start the season at Class-AAA, but could be in the Bronx by May or June. If Torres proves he’s healthy, Castro, whose defense has been a disappointment, would only be in the way. There’s a case for dealing him pre-emptively.

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