September 23, 2015

GDP grew 3.0% over the same quarter of the previous year in Q2, which came in above the 2.8% increase registered in Q1. The reading was in line with market expectations.



Q2’s acceleration mainly reflected a recovery of the external sector. Total consumption growth inched down to a 3.0% rise in Q2 (Q1: +3.6% year-on-year), which marked its softest pace since Q4 2009. Private consumption growth fell from Q1’s 4.0% to 3.3% in Q2. In addition, growth in government spending decelerated from Q1’s 2.2% to 1.8% in Q2. Finally, fixed investment growth recorded a significant decrease, slowing from 5.9% in Q1 to 1.9% in Q2.



Exports of goods and services deteriorated in Q2 and swung to a 2.0% contraction (Q1: +1.6% yoy). Imports contracted as well, recording a 1.8% fall (Q1: +8.6% yoy). As a consequence of the sharp reduction in imports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 2.1 percentage points in Q1 to plus 0.2 percentage points in Q2, the best result in two years.



In seasonally-adjusted terms, the economy expanded 0.6% over the previous quarter, coming in below Q1’s 0.9% increase.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project that GDP will expand 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2016, panelists expect GDP to grow 3.0% as well.