Story highlights Preliminary analysis concludes missile was from a Russian-made system, official says

U.S. intelligence has concluded that pro-Russian separatists have a Buk system, official says

"All the indications are it was fired from inside eastern Ukraine," official says

A classified U.S. intelligence analysis says it is most likely that pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine fired the missile that downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, CNN has learned.

A U.S. defense official with direct access to the latest information detailed the analysis to CNN but declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information.

The preliminary analysis concludes the missile was from a Russian-made Buk system, known as the SA-11 among NATO forces, the official said. U.S. military intelligence analysts concluded only the SA-11 or the SA-20 has the warhead, range and ability to shoot down an airliner, the official said.

The Ukrainians are not believed to have an SA-20 system, and there is no intelligence suggesting Russia ever transferred one across the border. However, U.S. intelligence has concluded that pro-Russian separatists have a Buk system. The official says it's unclear if the separatists captured it from Ukraine or Russia transferred it to them.

Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 sits in a field at the crash site in Hrabove, Ukraine, on September 9, 2014. The Boeing 777 was shot down July 17, 2014, over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists. All 298 people on board were killed. In an October 2015 report, Dutch investigators found the flight was shot down by a warhead that fit a Buk rocket, referring to Russian technology, Dutch Safety Board Chairman Tjibbe Joustra said. Hide Caption 1 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Australian and Dutch experts examine the area of the crash on August 3, 2014. Hide Caption 2 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A woman walks with her bicycle near the crash site on August 2, 2014. Hide Caption 3 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Police secure a refrigerated train loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on July 22, 2014. Hide Caption 4 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A pro-Russian rebel passes wreckage from the crashed jet near Hrabove on Monday, July 21, 2014. Hide Caption 5 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine – Wreckage from the jet lies in grass near Hrabove on July 21, 2014. Hide Caption 6 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A man covers his face with a rag as members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Dutch National Forensic Investigations Team inspect bodies in a refrigerated train near the crash site in eastern Ukraine on July 21, 2014. Hide Caption 7 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Emergency workers carry a victim's body in a bag at the crash site on July 21, 2014. Hide Caption 8 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A piece of the plane lies in the grass in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on July 21, 2014. Hide Caption 9 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine An armed pro-Russian rebel stands guard next to a refrigerated train loaded with bodies in Torez, Ukraine, on Sunday, July 20, 2014. Hide Caption 10 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Ukrainian State Emergency Service employees sort through debris on July 20, 2014, as they work to locate the deceased. Hide Caption 11 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A woman covers her mouth with a piece of fabric July 20, 2014, to ward off smells from railway cars that reportedly contained passengers' bodies. Hide Caption 12 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Toys and flowers sit on the charred fuselage of the jet as a memorial on July 20, 2014. Hide Caption 13 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine People search a wheat field for remains in the area of the crash site on July 20, 2014. Hide Caption 14 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A woman walks among charred debris at the crash site on July 20, 2014. Hide Caption 15 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Emergency workers load the body of a victim onto a truck at the crash site on Saturday, July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 16 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Emergency workers carry the body of a victim at the crash site on July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 17 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A large piece of the main cabin is under guard at the crash site on July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 18 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Victims' bodies are placed by the side of the road on July 19, 2014, as recovery efforts continue at the crash site. International officials lament the lack of a secured perimeter. Hide Caption 19 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A man looks through the debris at the crash site on July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 20 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine An envelope bearing the Malaysia Airlines logo is seen at the crash site on July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 21 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Armed rebels walk past large pieces of the Boeing 777 on July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 22 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Ukrainian rescue workers walk through a wheat field with a stretcher as they collect the bodies of victims on July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 23 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A woman looks at wreckage on July 19, 2014. Hide Caption 24 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Pro-Russian rebels stand guard as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe delegation arrives at the crash site on Friday, July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 25 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A woman walks through the debris field on July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 26 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Pro-Russian rebels stand guard at the crash site. Hide Caption 27 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Wreckage from Flight 17 lies in a field in Shaktarsk, Ukraine, on July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 28 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A man covers a body with a plastic sheet near the crash site on July 18, 2014. The passengers and crew hailed from all over the world, including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany and Canada. Hide Caption 29 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A diver searches for the jet's flight data recorders on July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 30 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Coal miners search the crash site. Hide Caption 31 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Wreckage from the Boeing 777 lies on the ground July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 32 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine People search for bodies of passengers on July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 33 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A woman walks past a body covered with a plastic sheet near the crash site July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 34 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Belongings of passengers lie in the grass on July 18, 2014. Hide Caption 35 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine People inspect the crash site on Thursday, July 17, 2014. Hide Caption 36 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine People walk amid the debris at the site of the crash. Hide Caption 37 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Debris smoulders in a field near the Russian border. Hide Caption 38 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Fire engines arrive at the crash site. Hide Caption 39 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A man stands next to wreckage. Hide Caption 40 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Debris from the crashed jet lies in a field in Ukraine. Hide Caption 41 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Family members of those aboard Flight 17 leave Schiphol Airport near Amsterdam, Netherlands. Hide Caption 42 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A large piece of the plane lies on the ground. Hide Caption 43 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Luggage from the flight sits in a field at the crash site. Hide Caption 44 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A couple walks to the location at Schiphol Airport where more information would be given regarding the flight. Hide Caption 45 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Flight arrivals are listed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia. Hide Caption 46 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Debris from the Boeing 777, pictured on July 17, 2014. Hide Caption 47 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A man inspects debris from the plane. Hide Caption 48 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Wreckage from the plane is seen on July 17, 2014. Hide Caption 49 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A man talks with security at Schiphol Airport on July 17, 2014. Hide Caption 50 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine Wreckage burns in Ukraine. Hide Caption 51 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A man stands next to the wreckage of the airliner. Hide Caption 52 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter Hide Caption 53 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter. Hide Caption 54 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter Hide Caption 55 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter Hide Caption 56 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine An airsickness bag believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter Hide Caption 57 of 58 Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter Hide Caption 58 of 58

JUST WATCHED The timeline before MH17 crashed Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH The timeline before MH17 crashed 02:56

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Map: Approximate route of MH17

The U.S. military and intelligence community expect to have a more definitive assessment of what happened by the end of the weekend. "We want to put together a solid picture" on each element of the event, the official said.

That assessment is expected to remain classified for now, but will be shared among NATO nations, the official said. It may eventually be shared publicly to show what the United States believes happened.

"We cannot say with complete certainty, but we do not think the missile came from the Russian side of the border," the official said. "All the indications are it was fired from inside eastern Ukraine."

The initial assessment also suggests separatists thought they were shooting at a Ukrainian military transport plane.

Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's top military commander, who also is head of the U.S. European Command, is leading much of the U.S. military's technical intelligence effort looking at all satellite, radar and other intelligence data from the area.

He is coordinating with other NATO members and east European nations in the region scouring their radar and intelligence assets to see if there is specific data showing the event.

For now, the United States has some data that shows a missile launch system was turned on and operating in the area at the time of the plane's downing as well as separate data that shows a heat signature of a major event, believed to be the plane being shot down.