At this point, Jared Goff is boom or bust in fantasy.

It’s Week 16 of the fantasy football season. For many of us, it’s championship week. Start/Sit decisions made over the next few days will be the difference between claiming the title of “Champion,” or “Runner-up.”

DVOA will frequently be referenced in this article. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

All player matchups are based on PPR scoring with some projections, stats, and facts from Rotoworld, Fantasy Pros, Gridiron Experts, Fantasy Footballers, and One Week Season.

Quarterbacks Starts

Mitchell Trubisky at San Francisco 49ers

This was an absolutely BEAUTIFUL throw from Trubisky. Tie game and he throws this touchdown to Burton. The ball came out like a laser, accurate, and well timed. This angle makes it so much better.#DaBears pic.twitter.com/oA2HOgSLa9 — The Bears Report (@TheBearsReport) December 20, 2018

49ers have allowed 2+ passing TDs in 11 of 14 games

Injuries have riddled the 49ers secondary

49ers have allowed a QB1 in 3 of the last 4 games

In the last 6 games, QBs have scored an average of 20 fantasy points vs. 49ers

Aaron Rodgers at New York Jets

Jets are allowing 20.3 fantasy points to QBs over the last 6 games

Only two teams have faced more WRs targets than the Jets

Jets have allowed 2+ passing TDs in 9 of their last 11

Aaron Jones is out for the season. The Packers will rely on the pass

Quarterback Sits

Jared Goff at Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals have allowed only 1 QB to finish above QB10 this season

Goff has struggled on the road this year

Cardinals are easier to attack on the ground (22nd DVOA and 22nd Yards allowed per carry) than in the air (10th DVOA and 7th Yards allowed per pass)

At home, the Cardinals allow only 10.8 fantasy points to QBs per game

Philip Rivers vs Baltimore Ravens

Philip Rivers’ night starts with an interception 😅pic.twitter.com/wQWDdvoiiJ — FanDuel (@FanDuel) December 14, 2018

Baltimore has allowed only 12.7 fantasy point to QBs over the last 6 games

At 4th DVOA and 1st Yards allowed per pass, the Ravens pass defense is a QB nightmare

Top WR option Keenan Allen may miss the game or play injured

Only 3 teams have allowed fewer passing TDs than the Ravens and only 2 teams have allowed fewer passing yards

Running Back Starts

Marlon Mack vs New York Giants

Colts are a 9 point home favorite. Setting up a great game script for running the ball

Giants have allowed 897 rushing yards (128 per game) and 7 TDs since trading defensive tackle Damon “Snacks” Harrison

Since week 7, Mack has seen an average of 18 carries in wins this season

Giants have allowed 27.4 fantasy points per game to RBs over the last 6 games

Sony Michel vs Buffalo Bills

Sony Michel! 131 rushing yards and 1 touchdown for the #UGA great. pic.twitter.com/PtzXWklV0k — UGA Football Live (@UGAfootballLive) November 25, 2018

Patriots are a 12.5 point home favorite. Setting up a great game script for running the ball

Bills have allowed the 2nd most red zone rushing TDs in the NFL

Michel averages 17.75 carries over the last 4 games, dominating the Patriot’s rush attempts

Bills are 23rd in fantasy points allowed to RBs on the year

Elijah McGuire vs Packers

McGuire has 21 and 20 touches for 83 and 71 yards over the last two weeks (4 targets in each game)

Packers run defense comes in at 29th DVOA and 17th Yards allowed per carry

The Packers have allowed a top 24 RB in all but 2 games this season

Packers have placed starting nose tackle Kenny Clark on Injured Reserve. Pro Football Focus grades Clark as the #8 interior defensive lineman

Running Back Sits

James White vs Buffalo Bills

White has been a top 36 just once over his last five games

Pats are a 12.5 point home favorite, setting up a run-heavy game script favoring Michel

White averaged 8.9 targets in the first 11 games, but only 6.25 over the last 4.

In the last 5 games, White has averaged 4.4 carries

Jamaal Williams at New York Jets

Jets have given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to RBs over the last 6 games

In the last 2 weeks, the Jets have held the Bills and Texans running backs to just 67 scoreless yards on 30 carries.

Jets have given up the most points to WRs and 3rd most points to QBs over the last 6 games (its an Aaron Rodgers game)

Williams has averaged only 3.7 yards per carry on the year

Gus Edwards at San Diego Chargers

Ravens are 5.5 point road underdogs, setting up pass-heavy game script

Edwards has 0 targets since week 11

The Chargers rank 13th in yards allowed per carry, and are allowing the sixth fewest opponent plays per game

Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards on the season

Wide Receiver Starts

Robby Anderson vs Green Bay Packers

Anderson has 18 targets since Darnold returned in Week 14

The Packers have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (10) to opposing teams WR1

Anderson’s average depth of target with Enunwa off the field is 19.7 yards (Enunwa is out)

Green Bay is allowing 30 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs in the last 6 games



DaeSean Hamilton at Raiders

Hamilton has 21 targets in the last 2 games

Raiders pass defense comes in at 32nd DVOA and 30th Yards allowed per pass

Hamilton occupies the slot in Denver, Keenum is very comfortable throwing to the slot as seen with Emmanuel Sanders and Adam Thielen.

Raiders have allowed 20 WR touchdowns, second most.

Tyler Lockett vs Kansas City Chiefs

Russell Wilson airs it out and Tyler Lockett does the rest for a 52-yard #Seahawks touchdown 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Q9fOVUFlhL — FanDuel (@FanDuel) December 2, 2018

Chiefs have given up the most deep-ball plays on the season

Lockett has an average depth of target of 12.7 yards

The Chiefs see the 4th highest pass to run ratio in the NFL

Russell Wilson will be forced to throw to keep up with the Chiefs, Lockett is his WR1

Wide Receiver Sits

Chris Hogan vs Buffalo Bills

Hogan is likey taking over the Josh Gordon role, Gordon only saw 12% of targets over the last 4 games

Over the last 6 games, the Bills are only allowing 10.8 fantasy points per game to QBs (1st) and only 20.2 fantasy points to WRs (5th)

Hogan posted only 7 catches and 81 yards in three games without Gordon (with 2 TDs)

Bills pass defense comes in at 3rd DVOA and 3rd Yards allowed per pass

Corey Davis vs Washington Redskins

Davis averages only 4.8 targets over the last 5 games, topping 42 yards only once during that span

Mariota has only 44 passing attempts in the last 2 games

RB Derrick Henry has 51 touches over the last two weeks and rolls into this game against a Redskins run defense that comes in at 25th DVOA and 21st Yards allowed per carry

Davis will likely see Josh Norman shadow coverage in a run-heavy game

Jarvis Landry vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns are a 7 point home favorite, projecting a run-heavy approach for Cleveland

Landry has 3 or less catches in 4 of the last 5 games

Over the last 6 games, the Bengals are allowing the 2nd most RB fantasy points in the league, setting up for a Nick Chubb game.

Landry went 3-30 in week 12 vs Bengals

Tight End Starts

Evan Engram at Indianapolis Colts

Engram has gone 11-152 on 17 targets in the two games without Odell Beckham Jr.

Colts allow 14.6 fantasy points per game to the TE this season

Engram has played 13 games without Beckham to date, averaging 4.6 receptions for 55 yards on 8 targets per game

The Colts allow 55.8% of their receiving TD to come from TEs, 1st in the league

Jared Cook vs Denver Broncos

Jared Cook, Rodney Hudson and Kelechi Osemele have been named 2019 Pro Bowl alternates.



More » https://t.co/C5FOQzn78O pic.twitter.com/Kq5Ssyp6Ny — Oakland Raiders (@Raiders) December 19, 2018

Cook has at least 11 PPR points in four of his last five games

In 7 games at home, Cook has 41 receptions for 642 yards and 4 TDs.

The Broncos give up 14.6 fantasy points to the TE over the last 6 games

Cook has averaged 7.1 targets a game over the last 6 games

Tight End Sits

Vance McDonald at New Orleans Saints

McDonald hasn’t had more than 4 catches since week 8.

The Saints have allowed the 5th fewest points to TEs this season.

McDonald has also not had over 47 yards since week 6.

The Saints havent allowed more than 54 yards to a TE this season.

Ian Thomas vs Falcons

Fantasy punch in the gut: Starting Cam Newton and Ian Thomas….. so Christian McCaffery throws a TD pass to the back up TE. Just how I drew it up🥴 — Jack Roller (@Jack_Roller7) December 18, 2018

The Falcons have allowed only 4.3 fantasy points to TEs over the last 6 games

Cam Newton is out, Taylor Heinicke will get his first start at QB.

The Falcons haven’t allowed more than 47 yards receiving to a TE since Week 9

Thomas is going to be TD dependent in this game and Atlanta hasn’t given up a TD to a tight end since week 9

You can find me @TOrginski on Twitter, happy to answer any fantasy or DFS related questions. Best of luck!

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