Apple has not yet launched its payments service in China, even though the country is a major part of Apple's business, and played a key role in the company's historic earnings report in January. But while Apple Pay has many fans in the US, BI Intelligence believes the success of Apple Pay in China will be dependent on two main factors: Apple Pay merchant acceptance, and the iPhone's market share in China.

The good news is Apple has sold a ton of new iPhones in China, and the country is also well-equipped to handle Apple Pay, which utilizes a new near-field communication (NFC) chip in the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.

Based on data from IDC, Kapron Asia ,and Kantar Worldpanel charted for us by BI Intelligence, iOS devices accounted for more than a quarter of all shipments in Urban China during the fourth quarter of 2014, and a quarter of all payment terminals are enabled with UnionPay's NFC-enabled QuickPass technology. In other words, with so many Chinese customers snapping up iPhone 6 units in urban areas, and with roughly 4 million NFC-enabled terminals in urban China, Apple is likely to have success launching Apple Pay in the country.