I have complete confidence the Nexus 4, Nexus 10, and both Nexus 7’s will receive Android M. I don’t have any insider tips or news. So why am I so confident?

Google doesn’t seem to believe in planned obsolescence. Despite the Nexus hardware platform, Google’s main business model is not selling hardware. It’s data mining. They make essentially the same profit off an old Nexus 4 as a new Nexus 6.

The fragmentation issue. Android’s fragmentation issue has certainly improved in recent times, but it’s still a concern for Google. Updating the 2012 Nexus’s is a easy way to give a bump to the percent of users on the latest Android build. (The sad stats: https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Platform )

The code push. We have seen at least traces of Android M code in the Nexus 4’s code repository. This is a good sign. (The repository, showing some android M tags, https://android.googlesource.com/device/lge/mako/ )

It’s more green. As of 2012, devices were pretty damn fast. Nothing by mid 2015 device standards, but they were still very respectable. And the Nexus 4 was almost certainly the best of the 2012 phones in terms of speediness. Not needing to upgrade your phone every few years results in less tech waste.

It would show what Google expects of OEM’s in terms of software updates. And this is at least part of what the Nexus program was originally for. It would really push the OEM’s to keep their devices up to date longer.

The Nexus 4 also has hardware that is extremely similar to the Nexus 6. Much slower, yes, but the same basic architecture. There is no fundamental reason why Android M wouldn’t work on the Nexus 4.

I’m hoping this doesn’t need to be said to Google, and they have planned to update these devices all along. As of now, we have no official confirmation in either direction.

Edit: So it turns out I was wrong, Google didn’t provide the update. But I would still argue they should have; they have been beaten in length of support by Apple, and massively so. The iPhone 4s, released in Fall 2011 is still on the latest version of iOS. The Nexus 4 was released in Fall 2012, and is now dropped from support. I have more thoughts on how long software support should be provided in general, and I may write those in a separate blog post.