Freeman, Gentry polls show themselves leading mayor's race

An internal poll touted by Bill Freeman's campaign and a separate survey from Howard Gentry's camp show themselves leading Nashville's race for mayor and opponents trailing in a similar order.

A poll commissioned by Freeman's campaign of likely Nashville voters May 7-12 found that Freeman is the top choice of 20 percent of likely voters, up from 11 percent on April 1. The same poll found Gentry's support has dipped from 27 percent to 16 percent over that time and Megan Barry has climbed from 13 percent to 16 percent.

"While the race remains fluid and highly competitive, Freeman's upward trajectory is very encouraging, and his excellent personal ratings and name-identification back up this momentum," a poll memo provided to the Freeman campaign on May 13 reads.

But a separate internal poll from Gentry's campaign conducted May 7-11 has Gentry in the lead, with 21 percent of likely voters saying he's their top choice. It found Freeman second with 19 percent followed by Barry at 10 percent.

"By any measure, Howard Gentry is the strongest candidate in the crowded field competing to be the next mayor," Gentry's poll memo dated May 15 says, noting that he's also leading in name-identification. "Gentry will continue to build on his support as the campaign continues."

Freeman's poll, a survey of 600 likely voters, was conducted by Washington D.C.-based Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. Gentry's poll came from The Mellman Group, also a national Democratic pollster. It was based on responses from 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. Percentages are rounded.

Metro's general election is Aug. 6. Early voting begins July 17. A run-off in September between the top two finishers is expected.

These mark the first internal campaign polls made public since The Tennessean reported on a Freeman poll taken in November. Multiple campaigns have conducted phone surveys in recent weeks, but only Freeman and Gentry released their results to The Tennessean.

Each shows Linda Eskind Rebrovick at a similar position — 9 percent of support in Freeman's poll, up from 2 percent in April, and 8 percent in Gentry's poll.

Freeman's poll has Charles Robert Bone with 5 percent, and David Fox and Jeremy Kane each with 4. Gentry's poll has Bone with 6 percent, Fox with 4 and Kane with 2. Freeman's poll found 26 percent of voters are undecided. Gentry's found 32 percent are undecided.

When he entered the race in January, Gentry, the lone African-American candidate, was expected to likely begin with the biggest base of early supporters.

Polls were taken after weeks of continuous television advertising this spring from Bone, Rebrovick as well as Freeman, the latter whom has paid three or four times the others to run his ads more frequently. Kane is the only additional candidate to go on TV at some point.

A third-party organization or media outlet has not released a poll of Nashville's mayoral race.

Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer warned not to make too much of the internal polls, noting that many factors — including the order of questions — can alter results.

"They may be right, but you have to have some doubt," Geer said, adding that Nashville's nonpartisan mayor's race is not as easy to gauge as partisan elections. "You also have seven candidates. None of them are super well-known.

"Preferences could change overnight. A Jeremy Kane or a Charles Robert Bone could gain 15 points overnight depending on what might happen."

Because of the difficultly to predict this race with accuracy, Vanderbilt, which polls on many statewide issues, won't be conducting a survey prior to the August election. The university may conduct one before the September run-off, however.

In a statement on his campaign's poll, Freeman said he is "incredibly humbled that the people of Nashville are responding to my campaign so strongly."

Gentry campaign spokeswoman Carol Brown Andrews, in a statement on their poll, referenced the money spent by Freeman and others: "What our poll shows is while some have spent millions buying what Howard already has, Howard still leads and is poised to be our next mayor."

Barry spokesman Sean Braisted declined to comment.

Kim Sasser Hayden, campaign manager for Bone, whose support was portrayed in both polls as largely stagnant despite their advertising, downplayed the numbers.

"Polls are a dime a dozen except in May when they're not worth a plug nickle," she said. "People releasing them this early usually are trying to prove something they can't otherwise prove."

Rebrovick campaign manager Ally Letsky said that their camp is "pleased to see we are one of the few candidates that's gaining momentum with Nashville voters."

Fox campaign manager Chris Tuner said their campaign is also pleased. "We haven't spent a dime yet on TV, while others have dropped well over a million dollars on ads and they're not breaking away.

"We're where we need to be — in striking distance. With all of our TV money ready to be deployed, we're coming for you. Things will shift dramatically once Fox and Barry get on TV."

Kane campaign manager Darden Copeland referenced a recent Kane poll of 800 likely voters, which he said found that 70 percent of voters are either undecided or have "weakly" committed to a candidate. He said 80 percent responded favorably to Kane's biography and profile.

"For all of the early huffing and puffing, the simple fact is: the vast majority of voters' decision-making about whom they will support in this contest lies ahead of us, not behind," Copeland said.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.

BILL FREEMAN POLL

By percent

Bill Freeman — 20

Howard Gentry — 16

Megan Barry — 16

Linda Eskind Rebrovick — 9

Charles Robert Bone — 5

David Fox — 4

Jeremy Kane — 4

Undecided — 26

Other — 1

Conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Reserach May 7-12

HOWARD GENTRY POLL

Howard Gentry — 21

Bill Freeman — 19

Megan Barry — 10

Linda Eskind Rebrovick — 8

Charles Robert Bone — 6

David Fox — 4

Jeremy Kane — 2

Undecided — 32

Conducted by The Mellman Group May 7-11. Numbers are rounded