The Mariners Are Good, But What Would It Take For Them To Be Great? Part One

Imagine if our new skinny Jesus Montero is as good as old fat Jesus Montero was supposed to be. Richard Paul Kane / Shutterstock.com

A heads-up to all you Slogheads out there: the Seattle Mariners, whose opening day is April 6, could be very good this year. Not just “by the standard of all the post/pre-Griffey-Mariners-teams-save-for-that-one-Brett-Boone-steroid-fueled-year good.” Actual professional baseball good. Las Vegas has the M’s as theStatistical profiles of the team (with fun names like Steamer and Nate Silver’s PECOTA) all agree, either giving the M’s a Wild Card berth or the AL West outright.

The Mariners have managed to have a number of superstars, even through the fallow years of the past decade. What makes this team different is the lack of egregious holes. And while yes, everything could go wrong, I don’t want to think about that today. It’s February, I’m in upstate New York where the thermometer currently reads “balls cold,” and I want to think about what happens with the Mariners if everything goes right.

Everything could go right. And I can’t believe I’m going to type this, but there’s a version of this Mariners season that ends with a World Series win. This isn’t like the Seahawks who were favorites on their way to a second consecutive Super Bowl berth (where something happened, but I can’t remember what). But the Mariners are a legitimate threat to make the post-season for the first time since 2001, and have the pitching to win playoff series if they make it.

So what would it take for this team to overachieve? Aside from a favorable run of health and more strong performances from the team’s big guns (Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, and world’s smallest big gun Kyle Seager)? A few factors could cause the Mariners to overachieve their way to a truly great season. I’m gonna go through them all before the season starts, so let’s start in the infield:

A Big Year from Jesus Montero

Last year, former top-catching-prospect-turned-punchline-first-baseman Jesus Montero came into camp overweight, saying that he spent the entire offseason eating. Seriously. His first interview at last year’s Spring Training involved the words, “all I did was eat.”

This year?

Grandes Ligas • Jesús Montero está en la mejor forma de su carrera http://t.co/OL8QyRX8Zo pic.twitter.com/3n3EwmY120

— Planeta Béisbol (@PlanetaBeisbol) February 22, 2015

Damn. Jesus Montero looks good. Real good. Baseball players are often reported to be in “the best shape of his life,” but Jesus Montero is visibly in the best shape of his life. Apparently he took off 45 pounds this offseason. Last year he got in a fistfight when our own scout bought him an ice cream sandwich mid-game to mock his weight. This year? Jesus Montero would only eat that ice cream sandwich if it were a Skinny Cow ice cream sandwich. And who would blame him? Those things are great.

If Jesus Montero were to suddenly live up to his prospect status from a few years ago (when he was considered amongst the best power prospects in baseball) the Mariners would just as suddenly project as the best team in the American League and the third best team in baseball. First base is not the Mariners strongest position. Currently they have Logan Morrison slated to play the majority of the year there, with Rickie Weeks and Montero waiting behind him. Morrison played well down the stretch last year, but expecting him to stay healthy for a full season and put up even league average numbers is a tall ask. Weeks has never been a first baseman and is over a year removed from being a good player at any position. He was a nice bargain pickup, but his upside is not very high. The longterm organizational future at the position is prospect D.J. Peterson, and he’s reportedly a year away from being able to make an impact.

But Montero? Montero is all upside. There’s a version of this year where he never plays in the Majors. But there’s also a version where he takes over the position in May and hits 35 dingers. That’s the version I want to have happen, and looking at Jesus Montero you can maybe, just maybe, see it happening. Again, dude looks good.

A Breakout Year from a Shortstop

Last year around this time I could not have been more excited about Mariners shortstop Brad Miller. Having put together a good half-season, he was projected for great things. And like a run of homegrown middle infielders before him, things quickly went to shit. Seriously, look at this list:

• Mike Morse

• Yuniesky Betancourt

• Jose Lopez

• Dustin Ackley

• Nick Franklin

• Brad Miller

What the hell with this array of weirdly underwhelming talent? Year to year all of these guys had their moments and then followed those moments up with other longer moments that were so mind-blowingly awful as to ruin the section in my brain dedicated to remembering those earlier good moments. While Ackley looks to have (finally) relearned how to hit and established himself as a decent corner outfielder, the rest are all out of Seattle.

Well, save for Miller, and Chris Taylor who replaced Miller last year and had himself… half a good season in the middle infield. Now if either Miller or Taylor steps up, and I for one think that could happen, the Mariners infield would be in great shape, and the projections that have the Mariners being very good would have undersold a great team.

And let’s live in this world where Montero hits dingers, Taylor or Miller is a league average shortstop, Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano continue to exist, and Mike Zunino mans home plate with his sick pitch-framing skills and ability to hit dingers between ugly strikeouts? We’re now living in a world where the Mariners have the best infield in baseball.

I like this hypothetical world a lot.