OTTAWA—After soaring in public approval for more than a year, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals tumbled last month in a new poll that reflects a prime minister and key ministers struggling to balance ambitious electoral promises and the hard realities of governing.

A new Forum Research poll conducted at the beginning of the week shows the Liberals dropped from 51 per cent a month ago to 42 per cent nationally.

Much of the erosion for the federal Liberals appears to have come in B.C. and Ontario, where the Liberals and the Conservatives find themselves nearly tied for support.

In the past month, the Conservatives’ national approval rating under interim leader Rona Ambrose ticked up to 34 per cent from 28. That narrows a recent gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives — who do not yet have a permanent replacement for Stephen Harper — from 23 percentage points to just eight points.

There was no significant change for the New Democratic Party, which stands stalled at 12 per cent, nor for the Greens at 6 or the Bloc Québécois at 5 per cent.

The Liberals would still win a smaller but comfortable 10-seat majority government with those numbers. And regardless of party preference, when those surveyed were asked how good a job they think the three main party leaders are doing, Justin Trudeau has the approval of 51 per cent. More than a year in, he enjoys sky-high approval among Liberal voters and nearly half of NDP voters approve of the job he’s doing as prime minister.

But it is nevertheless a fall to earth politically after a 13-month post-election honeymoon high that had seen partisans of all stripes enthusiastically embrace the young prime minister and his gender-balanced government.

“I think the Trudeaumania, whatever you want to call it, last year that pulled some Tory supporters onto the Liberal bandwagon, that’s probably done now,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff.

The poll comes as Trudeau and his ministers have endured a barrage inside and outside the Commons over tone and substance on a range of questions including its approval of two major oil pipelines and how it would handle protests, its dismissal of a parliamentary report urging electoral reform, and its response to the death of former Cuban president Fidel Castro.

The poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, plumbed public reaction to those issues:

On pipelines:

The poll found 47 per cent agreed with Trudeau’s approvals of an expanded Trans Mountain Edmonton-Burnaby, B.C. pipeline, and of an Alberta-to-Wisconsin pipeline extension known as Line 3, as well as Trudeau’s rejection of the Northern Gateway Alberta-to-northern B.C. coast pipeline project. Another 20 per cent of those surveyed said they didn’t know whether they agreed or disagreed with the decisions, while 33 per cent opposed.

On electoral reform:

The poll found strong support for a referendum and for a change from the current “first-past-the-post” voting system.

The survey shows 64 per cent support the idea of a referendum before changes are made to the way we elect MPs. Opposition to a referendum was just 23 per cent and 14 per cent said they didn’t know. Even a majority of Liberal supporters — 55 per cent — supported a referendum.

On Trudeau’s statement about Fidel Castro:

Most Canadians appear untroubled by Trudeau’s somewhat controversial statement on the death of the former Cuban leader days after the prime minister visited Cuba.

The poll found 41 per cent approved, and 21 per cent said they did not know, while 38 per cent disapproved.

Predictably, the highest opposition was among Conservative supporters — 69 per cent disapproved. Most Liberals (59 per cent) and nearly half NDP supporters (46 per cent) approved Trudeau’s reaction.

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Trudeau was blasted on social media by Conservatives and some Liberal supporters after expressing “deep sorrow” at the death of Cuba’s “larger-than-life” though “controversial” former president.

Castro, a Communist leader who executed some opponents, jailed critics, and cracked down on homosexuals and press freedom, died Nov. 25 eight years after handing over power to his brother, Raul Castro.

Trudeau’s reaction prompted Florida Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, of Cuban descent, to call the statement “shameful and embarrassing.”

Yet when asked a second question — if they felt “embarrassed” — 52 per cent surveyed said no. That indifference was even stronger among older Canadians who might be more familiar with Castro’s abysmal human rights record.

Only 29 per cent expressed embarrassment while 18 per cent said they didn’t know, and unsurprisingly, there were more Conservatives who were embarrassed than among the other parties’ supporters.

Bozinoff said neither of the latter issues, electoral reform (“it’s an inside beltway thing”) or the Castro statement, are big drivers of public opinion. Yet he said there was a sense the government had “fumbled” its responses.

The more cleaving question is the pipeline debate in B.C., where the population is deeply divided and the issue is a “no-win” for the federal government, he said. And in Ontario, he suggested, the drop in federal support may be tied to the “severe unpopularity” of the provincial Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne, who is mired at 13 per cent in public opinion.

In Ottawa, some Liberals privately concede the federal Liberal government has hit a rough patch and is struggling to clearly articulate its messages in Parliament. But a government official refused to comment on a poll, pointing to another “metric” — the number of enthusiastic people who continue to turn out in droves to see or hear the prime minister speak.

Senior Conservatives, on the other hand, concede that Trudeau is still a strong draw and potent symbol for the Liberal government, but as one said: “One thing he does not do well is Parliament. That’s why it’s an advantage for us the longer we sit.”

The firm surveyed 1,304 randomly selected Canadians by telephone using an interactive voice response poll. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage point, 19 times out of 20.

Where appropriate, results of the survey have been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

Forum houses its complete results in the data library of the University of Toronto’s political science department.

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