Government’s attack on Labor’s ‘retiree tax’ appears to have failed, with 45% of voters over 50 dissatisfied with PM’s performance

The yuletide season didn’t bring any good news for the Morrison government, with Newspoll showing the prime minister has failed to win over the grey vote, despite a concentrated attack against Labor’s “retiree tax”.

Scott Morrison remains preferred prime minister over Bill Shorten, but the measure, used to track a leader’s personal popularity, shows the crucial baby-boomer vote has been floundering since October, with 45% of those aged 50 and over dissatisfied with Morrison’s performance.

The government, first under Malcolm Turnbull, but strengthened under Morrison, has worked to discredit Labor’s plan to scrap imputation or franking credits for those with low tax liabilities, or receive a cash refund from the system.

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Labelling it a “retiree tax”, Morrison and the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, have spent the best part of the last year attacking the plan as “punishing those who save for retirement”, aiming their message at the key baby-boomer demographic.

But the strategy appears to have so far failed; an analysis of the last quarter of Newspolls by the Australian newspaper found support for the Coalition in the 50+ bracket has been falling since the 2016 election, where almost half supported the Turnbull government.

From a high of 49.9% at the July 2016 election, support in that age group dropped to 44% in July-August this year, before falling again to 41% following the leadership spill in August and dropping another point in the October-December Newspoll.

But the vote doesn’t automatically go to Labor. The same analysis shows Labor has made significant gains in that age group after receiving 30.6% of that bracket’s vote in the 2016 election, peaking at 37% in August-October, a percentage it has held in the December Newspoll, but minor parties have been the real winners.

One Nation, which received 1.8% of the baby-boomer primary vote in 2016, is now polling at 9% in the same bracket, while “others” which includes Derryn Hinch’s Justice party, Centre Alliance and independents, have dropped from 11% at the election to 9% in the last poll. The Greens have lost 1.7 points in that bracket since 2016, now polling at 5%.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest One Nation leader Pauline Hanson talks to Mathias Cormann. The Coalition is losing part of its baby-boomer vote to One Nation. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

One Nation’s rise as the disillusioned baby-boomer party of choice puts the Coalition’s plans of holding its 21 Queensland seats in jeopardy. One Nation votes helped state Labor win the 2017 election, and contributed to the drubbing the Coalition received in the Longman byelection earlier this year.

It is the Longman result which still has the government most worried. Longman shares similarities with Petrie, held by Luke Howarth and parts of Dickson, held by the home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, as well a seats in north Queensland, Forde and Flynn.

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One Nation achieved almost 16% of the primary vote in Longman, despite Pauline Hanson, its main drawcard, being out of the country on a cruise around Ireland for much of the byelection campaign.

Labor framed the battle for Longman as a test case for its wider election strategy at the next federal poll, basing its campaign on class warfare, with a particular emphasis on company tax cuts, education and health spending.

One Nation’s rise in the seat came largely at the expense of the Coalition, which saw its primary vote in the seat drop by 9.5%.

Morrison has attempted to counter Labor’s election strategy by framing himself as the “fair go” prime minister, who promises a “fair go for those who have a go”, but is still struggling to overcome voter distaste for the leadership spill in August.

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The latest Newspoll had Labor leading the Coalition 53 to 47, which mirrored the last Guardian Essential poll result.

Morrison has signaled the election will be held on either 11 May or 18 May, after delivering the budget on 2 April, but rumours of an early March election, to be called just after Australia Day, persist.