Heat and bushfires, coupled with the risks of an ageing fleet of baseload power plants, are once again combining to raise the risk of electricity blackouts this summer.

Victoria and South Australia are more likely to experience disruptions to power supply than NSW, which is within the energy market operator’s range of acceptable risk. Tasmania and Queensland have negligible chances of power outages.

RFS firefighters tackle a fire at Bombay, NSW. The market operator has warned of blackout risks during a forecast hot summer. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen.

“This risk is primarily driven by increased vulnerability to climatic conditions such as extended periods of high temperature, corresponding with low wind or solar availability and unplanned generation outages,” according to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s report, the Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP), which forecasts blackouts risk for the next two years.

The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a more than 80 per cent chance of above median maximum temperatures from December to February.