WASHINGTON — With strong fundraising figures and positive indications in the polls, John James has Republicans increasingly bullish about their chances of flipping a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan currently held by first-term Democrat Gary Peters.

Two recent polls — one by a Republican consulting firm and another by a consortium that includes a Democratic firm — show the race practically tied, which isn’t good news for any incumbent a year out from an election. And in the three-month period ending Sept. 30, James, a businessman, out-raised Peters by more than $500,000.

James can also point to the fact that while U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., beat him easily in his first political foray last year by 6.5%, that was still the closest election she’s had since her first, in 2000, and James did better with Michigan voters than some other Republican statewide candidates.

“He (James) has got a great résumé, he’s got a great presence. He didn’t hurt himself in that campaign,” said Tom Shields, an adviser with Marketing Resource Group (MRG) in Lansing, a Republican consulting firm that released a poll recently showing Peters with a 43%-40% lead over James, within the survey’s 4-point margin of error.

“He’s showing some political savvy… whether he can continue that all the way through, who knows," Shields said of James. Meanwhile, in the other poll, conducted by Lansing-based Denno Research and sponsored in part by Vanguard Public Affairs, a Democratic consulting firm in Lansing, the race was even tighter — 39.5% for Peters, to 39.3% for James.

But to beat Peters, James is still going to have to overcome quite a lot.

Peters still holds a big money edge

In the third quarter of the year, James — who, since entering the race against Stabenow last year has raised his profile exponentially as a guest on Fox News and a favorite of the president's, even being mentioned as a possible U.S. ambassador despite having no diplomatic experience — had a great fundraising period, with more than $3.1 million in receipts, compared with $2.5 million for Peters.

And given that this is one of the few races nationally where Republicans feel they might have a chance to snatch a Democratic-held seat, that could just be the start for the challenger.

But Peters still has a commanding lead in the fundraising race overall, with some $6.3 million in cash on hand, compared with $3.8 million for James.

And while James raised more from individual donors in Michigan than Peters in the last quarter — $917,000 compared to $621,000, according to an analysis by OpenSecrets.org, the website of the Center for Responsive Politics in Washington — that doesn’t necessarily translate into a barometer of support in the state because most voters don't contribute any funds at all to political candidates.

So far, most of Peters' money overall has come from individual contributors in Michigan and around the country — more than $6.2 million — but he, like most officeholders, has also reaped plenty — $2.5 million — from political action committees tied to businesses, environmental groups and others.

James — who has been raising for this race for a much smaller time than Peters — has raised $4.4 million from individuals and $198,000 from PACs, most of them from politically aligned groups.

James, whose campaign said he was dealing with a family situation last week and wouldn’t be able to talk to the Free Press, wasn’t available to discuss fundraising but Peters said he wasn’t terribly surprised by the level of his donations, given James’ past support for President Donald Trump.

“Republicans will support a candidate who is 2,000 percent for Donald Trump,” he said, repeating a phrase James said during the 2018 race against Stabenow.

The Trump factor could cut both ways

If James’ past support of the president is helping him to raise money — and possibly keep other Republicans from jumping into a nomination fight — there is also the question of whether being aligned with Trump will be a potentially good move or bad one come next November.

Polls continue to indicate that Trump’s job approval rating in Michigan, which, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, gave the president narrow victories in 2016 that sent him to the White House, is badly lagging, suggesting that anyone who is tied to him could suffer the consequences.

As of Sept. 1, the polling firm Morning Consult said 53% of Michiganders disapproved of Trump's job performance, compared with 43% who approved. The poll had a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

Perhaps more telling is that in Michigan, Trump hasn't had the approval of a majority of voters since March 2017. And that could weigh on James.

“He’s a good candidate,” said Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, who correctly predicted Democratic gains in last year’s election and whose model sees much the same happening as part of an anti-Trump movement in 2020. “I think the race is going to get a lot of attention. But I don’t think Republicans will be gaining ground in the Senate in 2020.”

The Trump factor could also help explain why James — who has been concentrating more on raising money than openly campaigning — has been largely silent in recent months on the question of his support for Trump and House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry and whether it was appropriate for the president to seek help from Ukraine and China that could potentially hurt a political rival, former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden.

Shields acknowledged that James has to “walk a fine line between supporting the president” and maintaining his independence. In a state that went for Trump by less than 11,000 votes in 2016 — and which many expect to switch to Democrat next year — that could be even more crucial.

On the other hand, Peters, too, may have to walk his own fine line, depending on who becomes the Democratic nominee for president. He has made a career of presenting himself as something of a centrist on economic matters, a pragmatist who could appeal to suburban and urban voters alike. If a candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren wins the nomination — and calls for wholesale economic changes and government-only health care — it could put him in a bind.

He demurred on the question of whether that could hurt him, saying only that he’d be running on his own record — not anyone else’s.

James is running against history, Michigan’s and Peters’

In James, Michigan Republicans have a strong candidate: an African-American businessman, West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot, he cuts an impressive figure on the campaign trail and in TV appearances, with his ramrod-straight bearing and easy smile.

And while his campaign website — johnjamesforsenate.com — is largely bereft of issue-specific items, it’s safe to say that James represents typical Republican stances on smaller government, lower taxes, a strong defense and reduced spending.

But in taking on Peters, James is taking on someone who can point to specific actions taken to address potential oil spills in the Straits of Mackinac, question spending by the Trump White House and government agencies, and push for Great Lakes restoration efforts. Peters can also note legislative victories on bills he has helped pass with Republicans — including those protecting rights of service members.

Peters helped pass a provision that helps service members given a less-than-honorable discharge because of negative behavior file petitions that could help them change their status and potentially regain benefits if they can show their behavior was because of issues such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or traumatic brain injury (TBI).

Beyond that, beating the professorial Peters will require doing something no one has done in Michigan in 67 years: defeating a sitting Democratic U.S. senator. The last was Blair Moody in 1952, who had been appointed to serve out a term the previous year and lost an election bid to Charles Potter.

Republicans have been chiding Peters on his relative lack of name recognition — there have been indications he may be the Senate's least-known senator — and at one point this summer, they erected a billboard with a political message in Dearborn trying to underscore the point by misspelling Peters' first name.

But Peters said his name recognition is a function of him spending more time working than appearing on TV. He added that many of those he does see on TV are "out there throwing rocks," which doesn't interest him.

Meanwhile, Peters — who has spent years gaining institutional support in Democratic circles while also building bipartisan ties in Congress and presenting himself as a fiscal centrist — has racked up an string of notable victories himself — winning a U.S. House seat in a longtime Republican district in Oakland County in 2008, and then, in 2010, winning reelection (by 2.5%) even as a Republican wave washed over the nation and that district, which then-Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder won by 26 percentage points.

In 2014, he ran for the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and beat former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land by 13%, becoming the only Democrat to win an open Senate seat in what was another Republican year.

“Gary is a hands-on, shrewd politician,” said Democratic consultant Dee McBroom, who has worked on Peters’ campaigns in the past. “(He) keeps his finger on the pulse of the state at a granular level and that’s a huge advantage.”

If James has an edge, handicappers haven’t seen it yet

Perhaps the starkest factor facing James is that many political experts are predicting a strong backlash against Trump in 2020, which is likely to make any statewide race difficult for a Republican.

But Peters, too, faces the likelihood of the Trump campaign and national Republicans — having few other states to expand into that could make up for a loss in Michigan — flooding the state with campaign money and appearances, pulling out all stops in an all-out attempt to win.

If that happens and Trump’s base voters turn out in even-larger numbers than in 2016, that could potentially hurt Democrats like Peters.

Expecting that, however, Democrats are almost certain to put even more money and volunteer work into reclaiming Michigan and not only putting the state behind the Democratic presidential nominee — as it was in every election from 1992 through 2012 — but also holding on to Peters' seat as they try to capture the majority in the Senate.

“The turnout in 2018 on the Democratic side was huge, it was mind-blowing,” McBroom said. “And I think we’re going to see even more of it.”

All of the major political handicapping sites are predicting that Peters will likely win. That doesn't mean James can't prove them wrong — just as Trump did three years ago in Michigan.

But it also means the race is just getting started.

“Michigan is one of the few offensive opportunities that the Republicans have (to flip a Senate seat),” said Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a political handicapping site run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “(But) James still has somewhat of an uphill track. … Peters has been underestimated most of his career.”

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Contact Todd Spangler:tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler. Read more onMichigan politics and sign up for ourelections newsletter.