ONS predicts 54% of growth in next decade will be from net international migration and 46% from more births than deaths

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

The UK population is set to pass 70 million before the end of the next decade, according to official figures.

Demographers project that the population will rise by 3.6 million, or 5.5%, over the next 10 years, rising from an estimated 65.6 million last year to 69.2 million in mid-2026.

The Office for National Statistics said the population was projected to pass 70 million by mid-2029, reaching 72.9 million in 2041.

This is two years later than the ONS projection in 2014, which stated the UK population would pass the 70 million barrier in mid-2027.

There are three main reasons behind the revised rate, according to the ONS. First, since the 2014 study the assumption of net immigration of 185,000 a year has been lowered to 165,000. Second, the predicted number of children per woman has been reduced from 1.89 to 1.84. And third, the projected rate of increase in life expectancy has been cut for men from 84.3 to 83.4 and for women from 87.1 to 86.2.





UK population to hit 70 million in less than a decade Read more

Andrew Nash, of the ONS population projections unit, said: “Over the period between mid-2016 and mid-2026 the population of the UK is projected to grow from 65.6 million to 69.2 million, reaching 70 million by mid-2029.

“England is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations. Over that period 54% of growth is projected to result directly from net international migration. The other 46% is because there will be more births than deaths.

“These projections suggest slower growth than the previous (2014-based) projections. This is because of lower assumptions about future levels of fertility and international migration, and an assumption of a slower rate of increase in life expectancy.”

The ONS’s latest projections do not attempt to predict the impact of the UK leaving the European Union. Nash said: “It’s so hard to predict. We’re not going to second guess.”



But he added that the number of EU migrants to the UK fell from 178,000 in March 2016 to 127,000 in March 2017 – a reduction of 51,000. This was a significantly steeper decline than in non-EU immigration, which fell from 193,000 to 179,000 over the same period.

Five of the eight academics on the expert panel advising the population projections unit predicted Brexit would result in a small decline in net migration to the UK in both the short and long term. All the experts agreed that the impact would be strongly influenced by government policy on the terms of Brexit.

Projected UK growth of 16% between 2015 and 2040 compared with 10% for France and 4% for Germany, while Italy’s population was projected to see a slight decline.

The study also highlighted the ageing nature of the UK population. In mid-2016 there were 1.6 million people aged 85 and over, and by mid-2041 this was projected to double to 3.2 million.

