HOUSTON—One of the pioneers of the U.S. shale boom plans to deliver a surprising message at a major energy conference here this week: U.S. oil production won’t keep growing as fast as the market seems to think.

Mark Papa, the former chief executive of industry bellwether EOG Resources Inc., said in an interview he is eager to tell the assemblage of oil chieftains that a widely held view that shale-oil producers can quickly ramp up production, and sustain those levels if needed, is wrong.

“The...