Expanded activities of Boko Haram and Isis increased geographical spread of terrorism in 2015 despite 10% fall in number of deaths, find researchers

The number of deaths caused by terrorism fell by 10% last year, the first drop since 2010, according to a global index that tracks acts of illegal force and violence not committed by the state.

The decline was attributed mainly to the effect of sustained military action in weakening Boko Haram and Isis, the Islamist militant groups respectively active in Nigeria and Iraq. However, an expansion into neighbouring states by both groups resulted in a record number of countries experiencing their highest levels of terrorism for 16 years.



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Despite fewer deaths, terrorist acts claimed the lives of 29,376 people in 2015, making it the second deadliest year on record, according to the global terrorism index (GTI), released on Wednesday by the Institute for Economics and Peace. The worst year on record was 2014, when there were more than 32,765 deaths.

“This year’s GTI report highlights the most complex set of dynamics in global terrorism in the last 16 years,” said Steve Killelea, the institute’s executive chairman. “While on the one hand the reduction in deaths is positive, the continued intensification of terrorism in some countries – and its spread to new ones – is a cause for serious concern, and underscores the fluid nature of modern terrorist activity. The attacks in the heartland of western democracies underscore the need for fast-paced and tailored responses to the evolution of these organisations.”

While the scores of 53 countries deteriorated in this year’s index, statistics improved in 76 states.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria accounted for 72% of all deaths from terrorism in 2015. Isis, Boko Haram, the Taliban and al-Qaida were responsible for 74% of these deaths.

The index, which analysed the impact of terrorism in 163 countries, covering more than 99% of the world’s population, found that 2015 was the deadliest year for the Taliban in Afghanistan. Deaths from acts of terrorism increased by 29%, to 4,502, while battlefield deaths increased by 34%, to more than 15,000.

Researchers found there were fewer deaths in Central African Republic, Somalia and Sudan following concerted efforts to counter the activities of terrorist groups.

Isis incursions across national boundaries, together with individual attacks inspired by the group, significantly increased terrorism, said researchers. Socioeconomic factors such as youth unemployment, crime and distrust in the electoral process were highlighted as potential causes of terrorism in wealthy countries. Researchers suggested that terrorist activity in poorer states was more likely to be driven by a history of conflict, levels of corruption, a refusal to accept the rights of others, and group-based inequalities.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Women and children in Gubio, Nigeria, are seen outside a burnt house following an attack by Boko Haram militants in May 2015. Photograph: Jossy Ola/AP

“The complexity of this year’s GTI is underscored by the fact that although 76 countries improved their GTI scores – compared with 53 countries that worsened – the overall global GTI score deteriorated by 6% since last year as many moderately affected countries experienced record levels of terrorism,” said the report.

Killelea added: “In the case of Nigeria and in Iraq, military action has been instrumental in reducing the capacity of organisations like Boko Haram and Isis to operate.”

The report included an assessment of the UN’s efforts to counter terrorism.

Sebastian von Einsiedel, director of the Centre for Policy Research at the UN University, said the rise of Isis and the growing problem of foreign fighters have led to wider acknowledgement that security-based counter-terrorism measures alone have failed to prevent the spread of violent extremists. This had prompted efforts to bolster elements of the UN’s global counter-terrorism strategy that deal with root causes and human rights.

“Effective pursuit of any of these activities may or may not contribute to reducing violent extremism,” said Von Einsiedel. “However, there are valid concerns about pursuing a broad range of UN activities under the CVE [Countering Violent Extremism] label, which risks ‘securitising’ development efforts, leading activities the UN does and should pursue in their own right to be seen as counter-terrorism endeavours. Framing CVE in this way also entails the danger of downplaying other sources of fragility, delegitimising political grievances and stigmatising communities as potential extremists.”