There are a whopping 15 open seat Senate races occurring this November. In the contests to fill these seats — seven of which are currently occupied by Democrats — Republican hopefuls face less of a tilted playing field than if they were trying to oust incumbents.

In fact, Senate Republican candidates competing for open seats have a pronounced financial advantage. And the GOP’s advantage in open Senate seats is even greater than the one it enjoys in open House seats, a trend OpenSecrets Blog reported on earlier today.

Republicans running for open Senate seats have, on average, raised more than twice as much as their Democratic counterparts, the Center for Responsive Politics has found. These Republicans have also spent more than twice as much on average as their Democratic opponents.

These Republican candidates further reported about 82 percent more cash on hand on average than their Democratic opponents.

Republican Senate candidates competing in open seat elections have raised an average of $6.2 million, while their Democratic opponents have raised an average of $3 million. These Republicans spent an average of $4.4 million, while Democrats in these races spent an average of $2.1 million, the Center found.

In these 15 open seat races, Republicans reported an average of $2.1 million cash on hand, compared to the $1.2 million cash on hand reported by the average Democratic candidate.

Total Raised Total Spent Cash on Hand Dem Total $45,561,490 $31,698,520 $17,388,703 Dem Average $3,037,433 $2,113,235 $1,159,247 GOP Total $92,424,931 $65,312,368 $31,572,914 GOP Average $6,161,662 $4,354,158 $2,104,861 Advantage +103% GOP +106% GOP +82% GOP

The retirements of three incumbent Democrats could lead to a sea change for representation in North Dakota, Indiana and Connecticut. Special circumstances have also affected the Senate races in Delaware, Illinois, West Virginia and Pennsylvania — all states currently represented by Democrats that could elect Republican lawmakers to take their places.

During the 2010 election cycle, on average, incumbent senators have enjoyed a fund-raising advantage of nearly $9 million. This advantage has helped senators maintain a re-election rate between 79 and 94 percent since 1989.

In open seat races, however, the party currently occupying the seats no longer enjoys many of the advantages of incumbency.

The GOP needs to net 10 Senate seats this fall to regain majority status, and some of the seats most likely to flip from the Democratic column to Republican control are open seat races

The profiles below detail the seven open seat races to replace incumbent Democratic senators. The eight Republican-controlled seats now up for election are detailed by OpenSecrets Blog here.

NORTH DAKOTA: REPUBLICANS’ LITTLE HOME ON THE PRAIRIE

In North Dakota, Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan is retiring, and Republican Gov. John Hoeven is expected to easily win the seat. Polls show Hoeven up by more than 40 percentage points. He has also reported raising about 3,000 percent more money than his Democratic opponent, Tracy Potter. (And no, that figure is not a typo.) Hoeven had raised $2.6 million and still had $1.6 million in the bank, as of June 30, the date of the most recent campaign finance reports for this race. Potter, meanwhile, reported raising just $80,100 and had $61,600 in the bank.

INDIANA: HOOSIER NEXT SENATOR?

Likewise, in Indiana, Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh is retiring.

In Bayh’s absence, Indiana Democrats chose Rep. Brad Ellsworth as their nominee. The congressman-turned-Senate candidate is waging an uphill battle against congressman-turned-senator- turned-lobbyist- turned-ambassador Daniel Coats in that race.

Polls show Coats up by about 17 percentage points. Coats also has reported raising about 27 percent more money than Ellsworth as of June 30, the date of the most recent campaign finance reports in that race.

Ellsworth, however, did report a cash on hand advantage: Through the second quarter of 2010, Coats had raised $2.1 million and reported $1.06 million cash on hand, while Ellsworth raised $1.7 million and reported $1.2 million cash on hand during the same period.

CONNECTICUT: WAITING FOR THE SMACKDOWN

The retirement of prominent Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has led to a topsy-turvy race to replace him.

Republican Linda McMahon, the former chief executive officer of World Wrestling Entertainment, has sunk more than $22 million of her personal fortune into the race — a figure that will assuredly go up between now and Election Day. Polls show that McMahon has narrowed what once was a 30 percentage point gap down to six. Her Democratic opponent, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, still is projected to win on Election Day by many observers, but McMahon has cut into his once comfortable margin. And Republicans hope her ability to dig deep into her own pockets will help her eke out a victory.

Blumenthal, for his part, has raised about $3.5 million and had about $2.1 million in reserve as of June 30, according to his most recent campaign finance filings. McMahon has pledged to spend up to $60 million of her own funds to secure victory.



ILLINOIS AND DELAWARE: APPOINTMENTS OVER

In Illinois and Delaware, special elections are being held to replace President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. Since the pair assumed office, appointed senators have been serving in their absences, and neither appointed senator opted to run to retain the seat.

Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) was appointed by scandal-tainted Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, before Blagojevich resigned from office amid a federal investigation that he tried to trade Obama’s former Senate seat for political favors. In light of dismal fund-raising efforts, Burris decided against running to keep the seat.

Now, Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is squaring off against Republican Rep. Mark Kirk for Obama’s old seat. So far, Kirk has maintained an edge in fund-raising and in the polls.

According to recent polls, Kirk leads Giannoulias by about 1.5 percentage points.

His fund-raising edge has been more pronounced, as Kirk has raised more than $8.9 million, as of June 30, the date of the most recent campaign finance filings for this race. At that time, he also reported more than $3.9 million cash on hand.

This is more than 57 percent more money raised than Giannoulias. And it’s nearly four times as much money in the bank compared to Giannoulias.

Giannoulias reported raising about $5.7 million as of June 30, and he reported $1 million cash on hand at that time.

In Delaware, Biden’s long-time aide Ted Kaufman was appointed to fill his seat, and Kaufman never had any intention of running for his own term. He never even formed a political committee or leadership PAC with the Federal Election Commission to raise money.

Biden’s son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, opted against running to replace his father earlier this year, and instead, Democrats nominated New Castle County Executive Chris Coons.

As of the most recent campaign finance reports, Coons held a fund-raising edge over his opponent, Christine O’Donnell.

O’Donnell is a favorite of the Tea Party movement, and earlier this month, she unexpectedly defeated Rep. Michael Castle, the favorite of the GOP establishment, in a Republican primary.

Coons reported raising $1.6 million as of Aug. 25, the date of the most recent campaign finance filings for the race. He had $944,200 cash on hand at that time.

O’Donnell, meanwhile, had just a fraction of that, reporting $376,100 in receipts as of Aug. 25. She also reported just $20,400 cash on hand. But the O’Donnell camp has boasted of raising hundreds of thousands of dollars in the days following the GOP primary. How successful O’Donnell has been won’t officially be known until mid-October, when the next round of campaign finance reports will be released.

Pundits and polling data suggest that Castle would have been a stronger general election candidate against Coons, and recent polls give Coons about a 9-point lead.

PENNSYLVANIA: KEYSTONE GOP OPPORTUNITY

Unsatisfied Pennsylvania Democratic voters, too, ousted their own party establishment-favored candidate earlier this year, as Rep. Joe Sestak beat Arlen Specter, the Republican-turned-Democratic incumbent senator.

In early 2009, Specter jumped ship to the Democratic Party after Pat Toomey, a former congressman and president of the conservative Club for Growth, declared his intent to mount a right-wing primary challenge against Specter.

Instead, Toomey is mounting an aggressive campaign against Sestak.

Toomey has raised nearly twice as much as Sestak: $10.3 million versus $5.5 million.

Toomey also had more than twice as much in his war chest as of June 30, the date of the most recent campaign finance reports in this race. At that time, Toomey reported about $4.7 million cash on hand compared to Sestak’s $2.1 million.

Polls show Toomey leading Sestak by about 8 percentage points.

WEST VIRGINIA: MOUNTAIN STATE CHALLENGES

An open seat Senate election will also be occurring in West Virginia, after the death of incumbent Sen. Robert Byrd.

Popular Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin declared himself a candidate for the seat in July, and he officially won the party’s nomination in August. However, he’s facing a difficult challenge from Republican John Raese, who has already invested more than $2.4 million of his own money into the race.

As of Aug. 8, Manchin had raised $418,300 and had $382,900 cash on hand, according to the campaign finance report he filed before the Democratic primary. At that time, Raese reported receipts of $3.3 million — including his own money — and reported $9,400 cash on hand.

The few polls taken so far suggest a neck-and-neck race.



Return to the ‘Races to Watch: Investigating the Cash Behind Election 2010’ series



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