N.H. GOP poll: Terrorism the top issue, Trump the leader

Susan Page | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — In the wake of the Paris attacks, terrorism has become the top issue among Republican voters in New Hampshire, and Donald Trump has maintained a 2 to 1 lead over a crowded field of competitors.

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe Poll released Sunday shows how the deadly terror attacks by the self-proclaimed Islamic State have reshaped the political landscape for the GOP in the state that holds the nation's first primary. But it hasn't undermined Trump's appeal, as some analysts had predicted.

At least so far, Granite State voters haven't reconsidered their support of the brash billionaire in favor of more establishment contenders, as some had suggested they might. Indeed, 35% of GOP voters chose Trump as the Republican best equipped to handle the American response to ISIS, giving him a nearly 3 to 1 edge over his closest rival on the issue, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the preference of 13%.

Concern about terrorism and national security was by far the most important issue to voters, cited by 42% of those surveyed. Jobs and the economy were second at 18%, and illegal immigration third at 12%.

The poll of 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, taken Tuesday through Thursday by landline and cell phone, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Trump led the field, at 22%. Rubio, on the rise, was second at 11%. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who scored as high as 18% in another New Hampshire poll in September, fell to 10%. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich were tied at 9%.

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who led the Suffolk New Hampshire poll taken in June, is now sixth, at 8%. Following him were New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (4%), former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (4%) and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (3%).

Several of the candidates now in single digits — Kasich, Bush and Christie among them — are counting on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep their campaigns credible.

"Donald Trump's loyal 22% goes a long way in New Hampshire," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, especially when other voters are split among a half-dozen competitors. But he also sees potential for Rubio. The Florida senator has the highest approval rating in the field, at 64%, and he is the top second choice among all candidates.

"The Rubio thread runs deep throughout the poll," Paleologos said. "If you look at who is in the top three when it comes to favorability, first choice, second choice, trust, or best chance of winning in the general election — Rubio is the only candidate who meets all those tests."

There's another Republican with broad support in New Hampshire: Mitt Romney, the party's 2012 nominee. If he were to enter the race — which he has said he doesn't plan to do — the survey found he'd easily finish first, at 31%. Trump would be a distant second, at 15%.

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