

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the potential track of Typhoon Hagupit on Wednesday. The dangerous storm could make landfall in the Philippines over the weekend. (NASA)

A dangerous typhoon is gaining strength in the west Pacific Ocean, seemingly on a collision course with the Philippines, where it could make landfall later this week.

Typhoon Hagupit, which took shape in the Pacific on Sunday, is a strong typhoon with sustained winds of 115 mph — the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane.

On Wednesday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center was forecasting a track for the typhoon that curved north before reaching the Philippines. But the forecast is anything but certain at this point, as forecast models have been in disagreement on the expected path of the storm over the past few days.

Even now with the storm just days away from reaching the islands, two of the best tropical forecast models — the U.S. GFS model, and the European ECMWF — offer two different solutions for the potentially deadly storm: one that makes direct landfall in the Philippines, and one that directs the storm away from the islands all together.



The track forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (hurricane markers with dashed lines) steers Typhoon Hagupit north, avoiding landfall in the Philippines. However, the European model solution has the storm making landfall this weekend (color contours). ( Weather Underground

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast on Wednesday morning agreed with the U.S. model’s solution, steering the storm north before landfall. But the European model’s solution — which both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Philippines weather agency agrees with — is much more ominous.



Forecast tracks from the Japan Meteorological Agency (left) and PAGASA, the Philippines weather agency (right). (JMA and PAGASA modified by CWG)

Despite the disagreement on the potential track, even the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is forecasting Hagupit to come within 100 miles of the central Philippines coast at its closest approach on Sunday — plenty close enough to be a threat, and well within the center’s average track forecast error.

However, what is in agreement is that Hagupit will likely slow down as it approaches the country, increasing the duration of the storm’s impacts, and with it the potential for widespread flooding. On Wednesday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s maximum intensity forecast for Hagupit was the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph. If the typhoon does make landfall, that is likely close to the intensity at which it will come ashore.

While totally different in size/strength, it is amazing how PAGASA's fcst track for #Hagupit compares to #Haiyan. pic.twitter.com/SWaec2biLb — Brandon Miller (@BrandonCNN) December 3, 2014

The threat of Hagupit comes just one year after deadly Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines with sustained winds up to an incredible 195 mph. Haiyan is the deadliest typhoon on record for the country, having killed over 6,000 people.

In 2014, Typhoon Rammasun — known as Glenda in the Philippines — has thus far been the strongest typhoon to impact the island nation. Expected to be a relatively weak typhoon, Rammasun roared ashore over the provinces of Sorsogon and Albay on July 15 after rapidly intensifying into the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane.

GMA News in the Philippines reports that officials are not taking any chances with Hagupit, and have put 56 provinces on alert ahead of the storm: