The AAP government has made promises it cannot deliver. Is the situation over the Jan Lokpal Bill constructed to give Kejriwal a hero's exit?

It is an ironical situation: A chief minister threatening to quit, bring down his own government that's only in its second month, forcing assembly elections, while all rival political formations make efforts -- or at least indulge in public posturing -- to prevent a collapse of the government. But be sure that Arvind Kejriwal is not on a suicidal mission. In fact, he is staking claim to a moralist martyr's halo. "Desh se corruption mitane ke liye 100 baar CM ki kursi kurbaan (I can sacrifice the CM's post a hundred times to rid the country of corruption)," he has said. It's a line that will get him tremendous popular sympathy, and also perhaps lead some to vote not on his actual delivery but on his professed intentions.

The inherent flaws in Constitutional, procedural and statutory arrangements for the 'half state' of the NCT (National Capital Territory) of Delhi appear immaterial for him. He has his own notions of getting things done and on the jurisdiction he believes he must have. But his limitations are becoming apparent slowly after he took charge.

There is a widespread feeling in political circles including in AAP that Kejriwal's resignation threat is just a convenient ploy to wriggle out of the difficult logjam he finds himself on. The longer he stays, the greater the problem of delivery, and hence the danger of going down as a fallen hero. A moralist position on Jan Lokpal, however, gives him the platform to reclaim his anti-corruption crusader's role, one that went down fighting for a cause.

Kiran Bedi, Kejriwal's one time fellow traveller in the Lokpal movement, tweeted: "I wonder if the Delhi Lokayukta bill is drafted to be passed? Or was it to cause major confrontation to walk away while blaming many others!"

Interestingly, the threat to resign comes at a time when AAP's numbers in the Delhi Assembly are appearing slightly shaky. After Vinod Kumar Binny's suspension from AAP and Rambir Shokeen's withdrawal of support to government, Kejriwal has support of 35 MLA (27 of AAP and 8 of Congress) in the 70-member assembly. Another MLA Shoeb Iqbal who had earlier pledged his support to him is keeping the CM on tenterhooks. If he goes or abstains, the number comes down to 34. They would effectively be down to 33 for the Speaker can't vote till there is a tie. The Congress has, however, made it clear that it will continue supporting Kejriwal, "no matter how strong the provocation may be from the other (AAP) side".

The number crunching that AAP members are doing is not for the passage of the Jan Lokpal Bill -- not yet at least. The Assembly arithmetic actually reflects in the government's functioning and in his confrontation with the Lt Governor over procedural issues on, for example, the Lokayukta (Delhi can only have a Lokayukta, not a Lokpal as Kejriwal insists the office should be called). This situation provides him an honourable exit route. "Arvind wants an end to this blackmail. We think that people will appreciate our position and we can get a comfortable majority in fresh elections. Quitting from office is one good option", an AAP insider told Firstpost.

Meanwhile, Lt Governor Najeeb Jung's letter to Arvind Kejriwal points out that the situation over the latter's insistence on introducing the Jan Lokpal Bill in Assembly could lead to a real Constitutional crisis.

A statement issued by his office said, "The Lt Governor also highlighted that as per Rule 34 of the Transaction of Business of the Government of NCT of Delhi Rules, 1993, any such Draft Bill should have been sent to the Lieutenant Governor before placing it before the Council of Ministers and this was not done. The GNCTD is governed by the Government of NCT of Delhi Act, 1991 and the Transaction of Business of the Government of NCT of Delhi Rules, 1993. Therefore, irrespective of whether the Delhi Cabinet appreciated this or not, the position would remain the same unless challenged in appropriate forums. Section 22(3) of the Government of NCT of Delhi Act, 1991 is clear that the Bill proposed by Government shall not be passed by the Legislative Assembly unless the LG has recommended the Bill to the Assembly for consideration. Besides, since the Central Government has already enacted the Lokpal and the Lokayukta Act, 2013, and with many of the provisions overlapping with the proposed Jan Lokpal Bill of the Delhi Government, the Delhi Jan Lokpal Bill will have to be placed by the Lieutenant Governor for purposes of consideration and the grant of assent by the President of India to avoid any repugnancy."

The Lieutenant Governor had further in his letter to the CM highlighted the fact that the Finance Department, the Law Department and the Administrative Reforms Department of the Delhi Government had highlighted the fact that the prior recommendation of the LG was required since the Bill involved expenditure from the Consolidated Fund of the Capital. The Council of Ministers did not accept these comments.

The fact is that Kejriwal had promised in his manifesto that the Lokpal Bill would be passed within 15 days of coming to power at Ramlila Maidan, where Anna Hazare had famously sat on dharna in 2011. In the run up to the elections he had even claimed that it would be passed at a special session of Assembly at Ramlila Maidan in 28 December. He now wants it pass in IP, Chatrsal or Thyagraj stadium. The other problem for him is that in the intervening period, Parliament passed the Lokpal Bill and with Presidential assent, it has now become an Act.

So, Kejriwal's options are limited. It was the movement for this bill that catapulted Kejriwal to his current social and political high. It is fitting therefore that he cares little for his chief ministerial post if he fails to have the bill passed in Assembly with him as leader of the House. Is it really a matter of principle? There are various indicators that his resignation threat is guided more by the considerations of realpolitik. Possibly, there is also a realisation that it is practically be impossible for him to deliver on various promises that he has made to the people of the city.

His own party members are now privately accusing him and other senior leaders of not being accessible to them. At best the party rank and file get to speak to their secretaries, or private assistants. "Things have changed. Accessibility has become a big in-house issue," rues one AAP activist.

More so, he has made promises in his manifesto and outside that he simply can't deliver. "He overruled most of the saner voices during manifesto committee meetings and clearly overdone it in committing things that were in no way possible. He now has to find a way get out of it and yet not appearing to be an escapist or worse, an opportunist," said an AAP leader who has toiled for the party since its inception.

The list of non-deliverables could be long: The twin issues of 700 litres per person free water and reducing electricity bill by half are still suspect despite the many announcements. Other big issues where AAP government is finding it virtually impossible to fulfil promises at least in near future include regularisation of around 3.5 lakh contract employees, 500 new schools and 2,00,000 new public toilets in LIG areas.

The statistics emerging from the anti-corruption helpline are not encouraging either. Around 1,00,000 complaints were filed, out of which around 2500 complaints were pursued for consideration, 80 inquiries ordered and around 150 stings (audio/video submitted to anti-corruption bureau) conducted. The remaining 97,500 complaints pertained to public grievances, they claim.

Better than anyone else, Kejriwal knows of roadblocks ahead and before he gets stuck too deep in, he wants to take a politically prudent detour to make a moralistic posturing in the run-up to parliamentary polls.