PARIS — For weeks Emmanuel Macron has been accused, by enemies and some allies, of going missing in action.

He has been, they say, culpably detached from the angry dispute over pensions reform, which has disrupted French railways and the Paris Metro for a record 29 days.

The New Year’s Eve TV address was, pundits said, Macron’s moment to roll up his sleeves; to produce a rabbit from his hat; to take control of the narrative.

Instead, his 18-minute speech — delivered standing in front of the camera in the style of a modern news anchor — was strangely abstract. President Macron called on Edouard Philippe, his prime minister, to find a “rapid compromise” to the pensions dispute but offered no clues on what a compromise might involve.

Macron boasted that, unlike his predecessors, he would not “cede to immobilism” and shelve reforms in the second half of his presidential term. His promise to rebuild the chaotic French state pension system — by merging 28 regimes into one — would be “carried through.”

Parisians have had limited metro and bus services and no Christmas opera or ballet performances but outside Paris.

How exactly? That was below the presidential pay grade.

One interpretation of Macron’s detachment is that he wants to avoid being tarred with failure or mocked for weakening the pension reform to the point where it becomes pointless.

Au contraire, say senior presidential aides and allies, Macron believes his government is winning. He may be right.

Limited impact

The strikes, which began on December 5, have now outlasted the successful strikes which brought France to a standstill in 1995 (on the same issue). They have broken the modern French record for a rail strike set in 1986-87. On January 6, they will exceed the length of the general strikes in the great worker-student rebellion of May 1968.

And yet the country is far from being paralyzed as it was in 1995 and 1968. Even the railways have not been completely halted as they were in 1986.

Parisians have had limited Metro and bus services and no Christmas opera or ballet performances, but outside Paris, other than for rail travelers, the strikes have been scarcely felt.

While just over 50 percent of French people oppose the pension reform and up to a million have joined nationwide protest marches, the strikes themselves are tiny.

By my reckoning, 0.58 percent of French public sector workers are en grève and 0.11 percent of the entire French workforce. Almost no one in the private sector has ceased work.

The vast majority of strikers — 30,000 out of roughly 35,000 — are on the railways and the Paris Metro. Even on the state railways the proportion of strikers has fallen to 7.7 percent of staff (compared to over 12 percent at the start). Something similar is happening on the Paris Metro and buses.

Railway drivers, for instance, can retire from 52 on double the average state pension. Similar special regimes apply to Paris Metro and electricity workers.

About 2 in 5 railway drivers are still striking and even more Metro and bus drivers. As a result, services have been badly disrupted but they haven't stopped. Little by little, the number of trains, Metros and buses grows as drivers, and others, drift back to work.

The more militant trades unions, led by the CGT, say they are fighting the hidden “neo-liberal” motives of the pension reform. Macron, they claim, wants to fatally weaken the state system — more accurately a jumble of systems — which dominates the pensions landscape in France. He wants to allow his “financier” chums in the private pensions industry to cash in, they say.

This is nonsense — and hypocritical nonsense. The reform will not take effect fully for 18 years. The state system, when supposedly merged into one, will remain a state system. There will be scant opportunity for private pensions companies — and what opportunities there are won't be available until the 2040s.

Concessions for everyone

Whatever the CGT and others may say, there is a striking fact about the strikes. Most of those involved enjoy absurdly generous special deals under the present system.

Railway drivers, for instance, can retire from 52 on double the average state pension (subsidized by other people’s taxes). Similar special regimes apply to Paris Metro and electricity workers, as well as to Paris Opera musicians and dancers.

Concessions offered by the government last month would allow rail and Metro workers aged 34 and above to retain those privileges. There would be generous compensation to the others.

Not good enough, say the militant unions. The whole reform is ultra-capitalist and un-French and must be abandoned.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Philippe has picked off sectoral or corporate interests — police, fire fighters, teachers, lawyers, sailors, fishermen, the Paris Opera dancers and orchestra. They have been offered delays or exemptions.

Was not the whole idea to merge 42 state pension systems into one? Yes, it was. As things stand, the likely outcome is one system with 42 exceptions.

The government argues this universal but flexible system will eventually be fairer and more sustainable — and encourage, not force, the French to work longer.

Union leaders need to defeat Macron to placate their even more militant grass roots, who are themselves divided between the revolutionary and the self-interested.

Center-right critics say the whole exercise has been a painful waste of time — badly conceived and poorly explained.

One big issue is outstanding. The more moderate union federations (France has eight in all) accept the principle of the reform. They refuse, however, to accept any further dilution of France’s nominal retirement age of 62 (lower than almost all other EU countries).

Philippe wants to prop up the system’s finances by creating a “pivot age” of 64 by 2027. If you retire earlier, your pension will be reduced; if you retire later, it will increase.

This is heresy to the biggest, and moderate, union federation, the CFDT. Its objections are difficult to fathom. The de facto average retirement age in France is already over 63 and is expected to rise to 64 over the next eight years anyway.

In truth, the dispute is scarcely about pensions anymore. It has become a multi-dimensional battle of political wills. Much of the argument — on all sides — defeats logic or common sense.

Macron needs bragging rights — “I succeeded where others failed” — for the 2022 election. Opposition politicians are desperate for him to fail.

The moderate unions need concessions to claim a victory against militant unions. Union leaders need to defeat Macron to placate their even more militant grass roots, who are themselves divided between the revolutionary and the self-interested.

Small wonder, you might think, that Macron decided to remain outside this bear pit.

But he missed an opportunity all the same.

The bulk of the French population has no idea what to make of the pension reform. Their patience with the unions is wearing thin. The president had a chance to seize back control of the narrative on Tuesday evening. He did not bother.

He may be right that his government is winning its war of attrition with the unions. That could be a Pyrrhic victory. Macron could end up annoying more voters with his aloofness than he impresses with his determination.