At twitchmine, we’ve been gathering twitch’s viewership data since the beginning of 2017 and watching the viewership numbers for years before that. One generally accepted fact over the past few years is that the top four games on twitch are: League of Legends, (and then in fluctuating order, depending on events / releases), Counter-strike: Global Offensive, Dota 2, and Hearthstone.

However, the stability in that top four is now being actively challenged. The recently released early access title “PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUND” (PUBG) has officially claimed the number two spot for most average viewers on twitch for May 2017, after claiming the number four spot in April.

The title, part of the recent “battle royale” genre, looks like it is here to stay.

A brief overview: Brendan Greene, H1Z1: King of the Kill, and PUBG

There is a lengthy origin story on how PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUNDS became the explosive success that we’re currently seeing. Here’s the context you need to know to understand why the twitch viewership numbers are where they are (and I recommend reading this story if you have the time as well).

Brendan Greene is the guy who defined the “battle royale” genre, and he led the team that created another battle royale genre game titled “H1Z1: King of the Kill”. This title, released in February 2016, started with modest viewership on twitch (~4–5k average viewers / day) and it eventually caught on, peaking at around ~20-25k average viewers / day. It also achieved the #3 most played game on Steam, so it was a significant title. Greene started developing PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUNDS right after H1Z1 released, and it was more in tune with his overall vision for the genre. As mentioned, H1Z1’s community saw great growth but eventually ran into many issues. There was widespread and frequent concern around the direction / development of the title as well as many reports with bugs. Greene’s PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUNDS released its early access in late March 2017, and capitalized on the disillusioned audience that had been built up for well over a year through his previous title, H1Z1.

There is certainly a lot more to it than that, but in a nutshell, this is why PUBG started off with such explosive numbers on twitch. We’ll support that narrative with the numbers.

The viewership story so far

Let’s look at daily average viewers of both PUBG and H1Z1 YTD.

If you look closely, you can see the immediate impact of PUBG, starting with the days it streamed before early access release. Big name streamers started streaming this game a month before it released, and each time they did, H1Z1’s viewership responded accordingly in the opposite direction. This was the true start of H1Z1’s viewership decline. Once early access was finally released, H1Z1 essentially flatlined and now brings in around one-third the average viewers it had at the beginning of the year (~25.8k in January vs. ~9k in May).

What’s also clear is that PUBG started far ahead of H1Z1’s most generous numbers. This is because variety streamers like summit1g came back to stream a very healthy ~160 hours of PUBG in April. Additionally, other staple channels of H1Z1 like DrDisRespect and JoshOG were all streaming in full force because of the new release excitement. It was not just a transfer of viewers and streamers, it was a rejuvenation.

To further validate that the two games have the same viewership core, let’s take a look at the top channels for each. These are the top three streamers for H1Z1 in January 2017 vs. the top three streamers for PUBG in May 2017.

Collectively, these three streamers accounted for ~10.6% of all PUBG’s viewership in May. The “% of game’s viewership” is a simple weight of average viewership and time spent streaming the game — learn more

Beyond being the same three streamers, their viewership numbers are also healthier across the board. Arguments can be made that because summit1g is a variety streamer, his viewership growth is a separate discussion. However, DrDisrespect and JoshOG have devoted the majority of their recent stream time to these two games and allows for a more direct comparison. Additionally, there are many other streamers not mentioned here that grew their base in H1Z1 that are now streaming PUBG.

While it’s clear that PUBG was able to capitalize on the viewership base built up in H1Z1 and re-energize it, it remains unclear how much the game will grow it. In April and May, PUBG’s viewership did not fluctuate much at all.

The peaks seen are from the 2017 charity event, coming in at ~322k peak concurrent

The future of PUBG on twitch

In the coming months, this game’s growth will rely heavily on the streamers who have built their fanbase in this genre, like DrDisRespect and JoshOG, to continue full-time streaming. Variety streamer summit1g, while initially important to the swell of viewers, has streamed only ~74 hours of PUBG in May compared to a sizable ~160 hours in April. He has also expressed being burnt out with the genre at large. However, streamers like DrDisRespect And JoshOG continue to reach new viewership peaks, with a recent broadcast from DrDisRespect reaching 25k+ concurrent viewers. For substantial growth however, other streamers will also need to continue building their audiences alongside the bigger personalities.