Nearly six times as many Bernie Sanders supporters are prepared to shift their support to Hillary Clinton than vote for Donald Trump in November, according to an exclusive new poll which suggests Democrats are in a strong position to convert energy from their passionate primary contest into general election success.



However, the research, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Guardian, also shows that if Sanders were to find a way of staying in the presidential race, it could hand the White House to Trump, who would beat Clinton by three percentage points in that scenario.



Carried out the day after the California primary, the polling news comes amid residual pressure from some Sanders supporters for him to continue his struggle – either as an independent or perhaps by replacing Jill Stein, the Green party candidate, on that party’s ticket.

But the survey of 1,408 registered voters reveals limited appetite for this option, which would split the progressive vote. Presented with a four-way choice of Trump, Clinton, Sanders and libertarian Gary Johnson, 35% would vote for the presumptive Republican nominee, versus 32% for Clinton, 18% for Sanders and 4% for Johnson.



Yet when Sanders is removed from the equation and voters are offered the more expected lineup of Trump, Clinton, Stein and Johnson, it is the presumptive Democratic nominee who emerges on top with 39%, followed by Trump on 36%, Johnson at 6% and Stein on 4%. Only 5% of respondents told pollsters they would “stay at home and not vote” in this scenario.



The lead for Clinton over Trump mirrors other recent polling which suggests the former secretary of state is again pulling away from her Republican challenger after a week in which his comments were described as racist by the House speaker, Paul Ryan.



Analysis of the Guardian poll results by SurveyUSA also hints at more positive support emerging for Clinton among the most dedicated Sanders supporters – findings that may reassure Democrats worried about reuniting their party after a sometimes bitter primary contest.



“Of those who vote for Sanders when Sanders’ name appears on the ballot, 13% say they will stay home if Sanders name is not on the ballot, 41% vote for Clinton, 15% vote for Johnson, 11% vote for Stein, and 7% defect to Trump,” writes the polling company.

The nearly 6-to-1 preference of these core Sanders supporters to switch to Clinton rather than Trump is also supported by a finding that only 7% of them said they would vote for Sanders as a protest “against Hillary Clinton”.

Analysis of the detailed poll findings also suggests Sanders voters could help Clinton recapture support from young people, union members and voters in the midwest and north-east.



“With Sanders on the ballot, voters age 18 to 34 split 32% for Clinton, 29% for Sanders, and 26% for Trump. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton wins the youngest voters by 14 points,” assessed SurveyUSA, which also accurately predicted the result of the California primary.

“With Sanders on the ballot, Trump wins the Northeast, Midwest, and South. Clinton carries only the West. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton carries the Northeast, Midwest, and West.”

The results help explain the mood of resignation inside the Sanders campaign, which is itself now more focused on working with Clinton to defeat Trump and promoting its policy agenda at the party convention next month in Philadelphia.

At a rally on Thursday night in Washington DC, where Sanders plans to compete in the last primary next week, campaign aides told the Guardian he was particularly keen to use the convention to push the party to adopt paid family and medical leave and support big raises to the minimum wage.



However, the campaign is “undecided” on whether it will hold any more rallies, and Sanders did not mention Clinton once during his speech. Ignoring calls from a small group in the crowd to “stay in the race”, Sanders focused instead on the extent his campaign had helped shift the agenda. “What seems radical today, will seem mainstream tomorrow,” he said.

