Back in January, I wrote a column predicting Donald Trump would lose his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

“Relax, Donald Trump won’t win,” read the headline on the column, in which I argued the billionaire faced an uphill fight to capture the nomination.

With just days to go before the first votes were cast in the marathon presidential race, I cited a number of reasons why it seemed obvious Trump would flame out.

As soon as the column appeared, I was bombarded by emails, many of them obscenity-laden, from readers from Florida to Colorado and across Canada denouncing me as an out-of-touch leftist moron.

It has never stopped. Every time Trump wins another primary, as he did in the past week when he prevailed in five state races, the barrage resumes.

OK, given that Trump is now so close to nailing down the nomination, I concede that I was wrong.

Trump needs just 243 of the 572 delegates still available in the final 10 primaries to give him the 1,237 needed for the nomination. The only hope for Ted Cruz and John Kasich, the two other remaining candidates, is for Trump to fall short of the required delegates on the first ballot at the Republican convention July 18-21 in Cleveland, which could throw the race wide open on a second ballot.

So how did I get it wrong?

Did I underestimate the anger that Americans feel these days toward elected politicians?

Did I misread the depth of fear, hatred, bigotry, racism and sexism in America that Trump is tapping into and that is fuelling his unprecedented campaign?

When I wrote my January column, I based my prediction on a number of factors. Surprisingly, many of those factors remain unchanged.

First, I noted that while Trump was leading in the polls, he was the most unpopular serious candidate in either party. Indeed, Trump ranks as the least popular candidate in 30 years, according to ABC News/Washington Post polls. A recent poll by Langer Research Associates indicates 67 per cent of Americans view him unfavourably. At the same time as Trump has been winning primaries, the Republican Party has been falling in popularity, with a Pew Research Center poll showing 62 per cent of those surveyed viewing the party unfavourably.

How could any party opt for such an unpopular presidential nominee, I reasoned.

Second, I noted that Trump had little room to grow beyond his core backers, with few Republicans naming him as their second choice. That view held for months as Trump won primaries with his support levels relatively steady at 30-35 per cent. But that’s changed in recent weeks, most notably when he won more than 50 per cent of the votes in all five of the latest primaries.

Third, Trump fared badly against Hillary Clinton in one-on-one polls, trailing almost all his major opponents. I wrongly believed Republicans would prefer to go with someone with a better chance of beating Clinton, who will almost assuredly be the Democratic nominee.

Fourth, I said his ground game was weak, and it still is. But clearly his pop-celebrity status and the massive media coverage he received negated the need for a well-oiled campaign organization.

Fifth, I suggested his lack of endorsements by major Republican politicians would hurt his credibility within traditional Republican ranks. Since January, Trump has gained a few senior endorsements, but the fact that most Republican leaders are shunning him hasn’t hurt him at all.

Finally, I reasoned that the race would quickly narrow to one or two candidates who appealed to a wider Republican electorate than Trump did. Instead, virtually all the serious candidates hung in the race well beyond their best-by dates, allowing Trump to pile up victory-after-victory in multi-candidate contests by just appealing to his base. At the end, only Cruz, a religious true-believer who may be scarier than Trump, and relatively unknown Kasich remain. Neither can be described as being more able to appeal to a wider general electorate than Trump.

Can Trump defeat Clinton in the Nov. 8 election?

It will be tough because Clinton still holds a 10-point lead over Trump in national polls. Also, his popularity among women is terrible, with even nearly half of Republican women saying in one recent poll they won’t support him. In addition, his polling among blacks, Mexican-Americans and Muslims remains pathetic.

To women and others disgusted by his rantings, a Trump presidency would be seen as kissing civility and decency goodbye.

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But with Clinton fully prepared for Trump’s onslaught of insults, slurs, innuendos and lies, and with polls still firmly in her favour, it’s a stretch to see Trump as president.

So for all those who loathe him, relax, Donald Trump won’t win.

Bob Hepburn's column appears Sunday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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