Russell Street Report Street Talk Is Justin’s Time in Baltimore Over?

Forsett Seeks Multi-year Deal

Interestingly, things weren’t all that different a year ago.

Sure, entering last offseason the Ravens’ on-field performance paled to their 2014 campaign; however, the uncertainty surrounding positions remains constant. Ironically, the solution to last year’s problem at one position also appears to be the source of this year’s.

Even before Ray Rice’s fateful night in Atlantic City, there was hope (and expectation) of an improved rushing attack from Baltimore. In the wake of his scandal, those expectations didn’t waver. Although fans weren’t sure where the rushing production would come from, they could justifiably expect it from somewhere. This was largely thanks to Gary Kubiak, the Ravens’ former offensive coordinator who circled back to Denver to be head coach after a record-setting season in Baltimore.

Kubiak’s success in crafting potent rushing attacks is (overly) documented by a myriad of sources. He has, quite simply, turned coal into diamonds. Reuben Droughns? 1,000-yard rusher, because why not?

And while nearly everybody took Justin Forsett’s signing for granted last year, astute observers took note of the addition. Even if Forsett never took a snap for the Baltimore Ravens, his presence in the offseason – as a teacher – would justify the signing.

As it turns out, Forsett’s experience allowed him to seize the role and become one of the NFL’s breakout stars. But the lingering question remains: was his success a result of his natural ability or a byproduct of Kubiak’s scheme?

The answer to the above question likely falls somewhere in between. But, in considering the latter portion, are the Ravens going to be able to carry that scheme over, and is Forsett – entering his age-30 season – the best running back to do so?

Certain things can be reasonably surmised from Forsett’s 2014 performance. He is an undeniably patient runner who is a very good pass catcher and underrated pass blocker. His familiarity with the zone-rushing scheme is unquestioned, and we already know he can have success with the current offensive line and blocking formations. The results were simply night and day when comparing Forsett to Bernard Pierce, as the Temple product appeared plodding.

So then, why is there concern?

Well, this is where the speculation sort of takes over, even if you are taking John Harbaugh at his word when he says Kubiak’s zone scheme is now “part of us.”

That’s all fine and good, and you can be genuinely pleased to hear the above news. However, that is assuming that Kubiak taught everything in one season. Fortunately for the Ravens, Kubiak’s M.O. is simplicity.

Consider the following from Kubiak from a 2005 Q&A ran by the Denver Broncos’ website in what would effectively be his last season with the Broncos (until 2015, of course):

Jeff; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania I have always been mesmerized by the zone blocking scheme you use in Denver. Can you briefly describe your philosophy regarding how you block your inside and outside zones? Gary Kubiak You have to be committed to something in this game and when we run the ball, that’s what we do, we’re a zone scheme. Some teams may run 40 or 50 various types of running plays a year. The Denver Broncos basically run four. We run a wide zone and a tight zone, right and left, so that’s four. We do a lot of variations off of that, but the reason we do that is because we feel like we get numerous repetitions on something so we get good at doing that. We feel like if you run four and you run them over and over and over and over again — and you don’t run 40 and run them once or twice a year — then you’re getting good at something. It’s a commitment we made a few years back when (former offensive line coach) Alex Gibbs was here and started it with our running game and it’s carried on now with Rick Dennison. It’s a commitment that Mike (Shanahan) has for us to be good at running the ball. He wants us to do that all the time. The easiest way to explain it is we feel like it’s simple. We feel like it adjusts to everything people do and we feel like it keeps us from wasting other plays and being committed to a scheme.

So did Kubiak install his offense in its entirety? Probably not. But the core principles – those four plays – have clearly been hammered home into the Ravens offensive line. As the season grew on, they appeared more and more comfortable executing the zone schemes, and it isn’t crazy to think they should be able to carry that over. So when Harbaugh says “part of us moving forward,” it’s not all that farfetched.

With that being said, it would seem prudent to put pieces in place to ensure that transition is seen through. Which brings us to the market for Justin Forsett.

Recently, there has been speculation that Forsett might follow Kubiak to Denver. It’s possible, as they’ve proven a successful combination. However, the best thing about Kubiak’s offense is its ability to generate successful runners, so they won’t be going out of their way to pay a running back. If Forsett were to sign with Denver, it would very likely be at a reasonable one-year deal.

You have to seriously ask, are there teams out there that would realistically offer Forsett multiple years? Turning 30 in October, he has entered into the passé stage of NFL running backs, essentially playing on borrowed time. His light workload adds a legitimate wrinkle to the equation, but even still, teams must seriously ponder questions about his shelf life.

So where does that leave Forsett in an NFL economy that saw the Dallas Cowboys consider four years for $16 million a fair price tag for DeMarco Murray, the 26-year-old near-2,000-yard rusher?

Ultimately, it begs the question, who needs him the most?

The answer seems to be the Baltimore Ravens.

While his signing would quell concerns about losing Kubiak’s scheme, it would also somewhat guarantee an easy fit into Marc Trestman’s screen-heavy offense. Off the field, the Ravens find themselves with the PR headache of possibly losing two of their most community-dedicated players in Forsett and Torrey Smith. However, on the payroll, the solution appears to be contingent on numbers.

According to RSR’s own Brian McFarland, the Ravens are currently $5.16 million over the projected salary cap of $141.8 million. With decisions looming on the likes of Haloti Ngata, Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb, Jacoby Jones, Sam Koch, etc., it seems unlikely the Ravens will enter into any bidding wars over free agents or expired contracts.

You can kiss Pernell McPhee goodbye, and he is a good barometer for the Forsett situation. McPhee will undoubtedly have suitors prepared to offer substantial money over multiple years – and the Ravens won’t match it. If Forsett has the same, he will be gone from Baltimore. If he doesn’t, it seems more than practical for him to return.

With the reality of the running back situation in today’s NFL, the chances of the Ravens giving Forsett more than two years seem slim. Lorenzo Taliaferro remains on the Ravens roster, and he was viewed as a potential three-down back in Kubiak’s system. Approaching April, Ozzie Newsome and Co. will have plenty of time to analyze draft prospects – there are even options at No. 26 overall that warrant consideration (Georgia’s Todd Gurley has had Adrian Peterson comparisons thrown around, for instance).

Essentially, it almost seems as though both the Ravens and Forsett don’t technically need one another. However, at the end of the day, they just may agree their best respective scenarios involve his return.

As for Trestman’s offense and any concerns about his crossover, former Oakland Raiders tackle and Super Bowl champion Lincoln Kennedy told the following to PressBox’s GlennClarkRadio.com.

“The great thing about Trestman’s offense was that it flourished on simplicity,” said Kennedy, who played under Trestman from 2001-2003. “When we went to the Super Bowl, we only ran a handful of plays. We had different variations of those plays. “It was very simple. It was very easy for me to manipulate, and that’s why I had my most success during those years and during that window. No matter what system you put in place, Trestman is going to bring a simple system that’s easy to understand.”

It sounds like even though Kubiak won’t be able to build upon his first season, the Ravens have chosen a good candidate to expand upon that foundation. And Justin Forsett was undoubtedly a big part of that construction.

Time will tell if his position undergoes renovation.