Guest Post- A Closer Look at LeBreton Flats SensChirp

Today we have a guest post from Spencer Callaghan, who you may know as @Senturion on Twitter or from his occasional musings at SensNation. In a three-part series, Spencer will take a look at the idea of building a new arena at LeBreton Flats. Clearly the opportunity to build a new rink at LeBreton is a tremendous opportunity, but no matter how great the idea is, it’s not a slam dunk. In part one of the series, Spencer will recap how the arena ended up in Kanata, why moving it downtown is a good idea, and examine some of the challenges involved.

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It’s the dream scenario that has been dancing like sugarplums through the heads of Sens fans for years…a downtown arena.

While the idea has been gaining a lot of momentum in the past few weeks, spurred by the news (now confirmed) that the Sens will be submitting a plan to the NCC, there are still a lot of hurdles to be cleared. Even at the best of times, building an NHL arena takes years of planning, which is why it is good to start the conversation early.

However in Ottawa, the process can be even more laborious as there are as many as four levels of government from which to seek approvals, funds, and zoning. On top of the City of Ottawa, Province of Ontario and Government of Canada, a more formidable, and stubborn foe holds all the keys to an arena at LeBreton–The National Capital Commission. Before we begin, let’s highlight the three main issues when it comes to the Sens building a new home at LeBreton, which I’ll cover in three instalments.

First, does a downtown building make sense? Is LeBreton the right spot for it? Why now? Second, how will they pay for it? Do they need government money? What about a partner for the development? Finally, is it even possible for the major players, Eugene Melnyk and the NCC, to pull off such a plan? No matter how awesome the plan for LeBreton is, if those three questions can’t be answered, the development, no matter how perfect, isn’t happening.

The first question is perhaps the easiest to address.

While there is nothing inherently wrong with the current building (as a structure), the process to build a new arena is probably going to take 10 years, maybe more. Given that, don’t think of the Canadian Tire Centre as being 17 years old, think of it as being nearly 30 years old by the time any new development is ready. Thirty years isn’t bad for a house, but in arena terms it’s getting up there. If the building were to stay in Kanata, it would probably need millions of dollars in renovations just to keep pace with the most basic amenities of modern arenas. So why not just do that? Renovate and refurbish? Because moving downtown allows the Sens to fix the greatest mistake in franchise history, no not the Spartan guy (that blot will never be erased), rather the location of the arena.

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While Sens fans owe Bruce Firestone a great debt for bringing the team to Ottawa, it’s far too simplistic to just take his account of why the arena is in Kanata at face value. First, it’s his account, of course it is going to make the decision sound like the logical and proper decision at the time. This isn’t a criticism, just a fact. We all see history through our own lens. However if you read his explanation closely you can see the rough outlines of the real reason the arena is in Kanata: Terrace Investments wanted to make money off the land.

Many people don’t remember that the plan for the Palladium involved more than just an arena. Terrace Investments, the company that formally launched the Bring Back the Sens bid, had an entire community planned around the arena which included a hotel, shopping mall and a large residential neighbourhood. The arena was simply the centrepiece of a massive land development deal that Terrace was going to use to bankroll the Sens. The massive development would not have been possible anywhere downtown, and no bank on the planet was going to bankroll an arena downtown, where the land would have been far more expensive, without the additional revenue potential brought by the added residential and commercial space.

Let’s be clear, Terrace Investments didn’t really have another choice, this is true, because they had barely two nickels to rub together when they made the deal, but that doesn’t mean the choice they made was a smart one.

The decision to put the arena in Kanata is almost entirely responsible for the financially precarious nature of the franchise since day one. What came next set the Senators on a course that would lead to a bankruptcy in 2003. The team lost a hearing at the Ontario Municipal Board over a tiny stream that was considered a major tributary, and the Bob Rae Ontario government (some say due to lingering bitterness that Hamilton lost the franchise rights to Ottawa) scaled back the entire development leaving only a reduced-capacity arena and a bill for building the only privately funded highway interchange in Ontario.

Without the development surrounding the arena, Terrace Investments saw their projected revenue dramatically slashed, leaving only the arena and the team. The reduced revenue left the team unable to pay off the massive debt they had incurred to build the arena, and led directly to the fire sale that saw Eugene Melnyk buy the team for an estimated $127 million, less than it cost to actually build the arena in 1997. So next time you see Bob Rae, say thanks.

Full disclosure, I live in Kanata, I can see the arena from my front porch, but I find it hard to understand people who try to make a case that the arena is better off in the far west end of the city.

It’s pretty clear that Terrace Investments had the Detroit Pistons in mind when they planned the Palladium. In in early 90s, the Pistons had just come off back-to-back NBA championships and had recently moved into their brand new building, The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Palace was a grand building built in the suburbs with nice sight lines and ample luxury suites. In fact, the Senators used the exact same architect to design the Palladium. However, that’s unfortunately where the similarities between the two venues stop.

Whereas Auburn Hills is a rich suburb of an America city whose urban center is at best working class and at worst a war zone, Ottawa, and Kanata, are much different. While the Pistons had no real need to attract fans from downtown, having plenty of money in the surrounding area from the rich suburbanites who had fled the city, Ottawa, as a smaller city with a geographically dispersed fan base, had to rely much more heavily on the average walk-up fan for revenue.

Recently the team has admitted that the current building has far too many luxury suites, and is refurbishing some to be more open-concept loge suites and VIP areas in order to attract a different class of business guest. This is a direct result of following the Palace model. Even the name, Palladium, reflects the similarities. So with an arena in the far end of town, in a city that is one of the largest by geographic area in North America, the Senators have been a a disadvantage since day one.

Add in a highway that until recently was not wide enough, and a transit system that is barely adequate (with LRT to the arena not even on the city’s long-term plan) and you have a recipe for a team that is going to struggle for revenue.

If we were building an arena today, the simplest method to determine where to put it would be to lay a 25 km radius over a population density map of Ottawa and aim to encapsulate the most people in the catchment area. I’ll give you a hint, Kanata does horribly in this test as a good chunk of the circle would cover scarcely populated areas of the Ottawa Valley, and almost none of it would touch the dense zones of the Outaouais.

John Baird may not be everyone’s favourite person, but as Minister of Foreign Affairs he travels a lot. So, when he publicly states: “I’ve travelled quite a bit and I’ve never seen a major sports arena in the middle of nowhere” it’s time to consider whether or not he’s onto something.

Much of the criticism of the idea of a downtown arena focuses on transportation. How are we going to get 18000 people downtown when traffic to the core is gridlock most of the day. This is easily solved. First, whereas traffic to the Canadian Tire Centre is 90 percent coming from one direction (east-west before the game and the reverse after), a downtown arena would see traffic coming and going in all four directions. That traffic would also always be going in the opposite direction of rush hour. Remember that far more than 18000 people travel downtown to work every day and although traffic is tight, it works.

We have a recent example of just how overblown traffic concerns can be. Residents of the Glebe were certain that the redevelopment of Lansdowne would bring a traffic apocalypse to the neighbourhood each game day.

However, when the first football games were played, no such carmageddon took place. Thanks to a great transit plan, some strong communication with fans, and a welcome bout of common sense, getting 25000 people in and out of the Glebe has been largely uneventful. That’s 32 percent more people with less access to transit and much narrower streets without incident.

Another important factor is that a large percentage of the game day crowd, probably as much as 30 percent, would simply go to the game straight from work, making transit far less of a hassle and significantly reducing the strain on the roads. While we’re talking about transportation, let’s remember that by 2018 there will be an LRT stop right at LeBreton. By 2025, around the time the proposed arena would open, that LRT would likely extend from Orleans all the way to Bayshore (perhaps it’s fate’s way of evening the score that Kanata would get screwed). Bottom line, transit, traffic and access to an arena at LeBreton would be much better than today, with a catchment area that comprised far more potential fans within a short distance.

Finally, we get to the less quantifiable advantages of an arena being downtown. The game day experience.

I live in Kanata, I love Kanata, but Kanata is not a place for fun, frivolity and merriment. It’s a great suburb for raising kids, but a professional hockey team (with tickets ranging in the hundreds of dollars) has to appeal to a different demographic, one that likes to eat, drink, have fun and make a night of the experience. Think back to 2007, when the Sens were marching to the Cup, where did the crowds gather? Kanata? No, they gathered en masse on Elgin Street because no one wants to hang out in a parking lot in suburban Kanata.

With far fewer large corporate ticket buyers to target, the Sens have to rely on walk-up fans more than any other team. This means that the fan experience is paramount. Those fans that leave the game with five minutes left, it’s easy to judge them, but some just can’t handle an hour long commute back to Orleans on a Tuesday night. There’s a reason why most of the biggest complaints about the arena focus on parking, transit and access. It’s easy to call these people whiners and bad fans, but at the end of the day there are not enough hardcore fans to fill 18000 seats every night. The team needs those casual fans and they don’t want to spend more time in their car than the players spend in TOI.

An arena is more than just a place to play hockey, it’s a central piece of civic infrastructure that any city needs–and it should be downtown. It seems to me that if nearly every other city in North America can manage to put an arena downtown (except Detroit but who can blame them) then Ottawa can too.

Stay tuned for part two where I examine the biggest question facing the development: public money.