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During his first practice as a new member of the Boston Bruins, Brett Connolly‘s season was almost lost. The right winger had just been acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning for a pair of second-round draft picks and was set to offer some complementary offense as the Bruins began their ill-fated playoff drive.

Instead of providing scoring depth, Connolly broke his finger and wasn’t able to return until the final five games of the season.

New on Bruins Daily – Brett Connolly out 6 weeks with displaced fracture in right index finger http://t.co/aQHTtakzRl pic.twitter.com/RtQDTeMCaD — Bruins Daily (@BruinsDaily) March 4, 2015

In his return, Connolly posted two assists — both in his first game back — and mustered nine shots playing between 12-18 minutes in those five contests. The handful of games as a Bruin wrapped up a trying season for the 23-year-old. Connolly was injured twice, managed only 12 points in 55 games, and was traded away from the eventual Stanley Cup runners-up. Connolly’s future was uncertain.

But, as part of new GM Don Sweeney’s sweeping roster changes, Connolly was re-signed. The “show-me” deal is a one-year contract worth $1,025,000 free of performance bonuses. Though he’ll make less than half of the average NHL salary, this deal gives Connolly a distraction-free, opportunity-filled year to show his value on a roster searching for new chemistry.

Connolly is excited.

“They believe in me and what I can do." Brett Connolly excited for "fresh start" to 2015-16: http://t.co/vUVMTlzqDf pic.twitter.com/t94a0OVDtj — Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) July 6, 2015

With new Bruins forwards Matt Beleskey, Jimmy Hayes, and Zac Rinaldo looking for their place in the lineup, Connolly will have his shot at claiming one of at least four forwards spots left vacant by the offseason departures.

But what should Bruins fans expect? Can Brett Connolly realize some of his potential and claim a top-six scoring role? Or is Connolly likely to falter and wallow as an energy line forward playing fourth-line minutes? Let’s take a closer look.

Brett Connolly – Upside Untapped

Drafted sixth overall in 2010 by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Connolly’s pedigree was very strong. He posted 40 goals in 81 games over two seasons for Prince George of the WHL and scouts raved about his NHL potential. At the time, NHL Central Scouting’s Peter Sullivan said, “[Connolly] puts the puck in the net, he’s got good size, great on-ice awareness. He’s not a crasher or a banger, but he finishes his checks. He does everything well.”

Dean Clark, Connolly’s head coach with the Cougars, gushed about Connolly:

“Brett is a very gifted player and it’s too bad we haven’t been able to see more of him this season because of his injury. Brett can take over a game with his skill and puck control and he’s also a very intelligent player. He has always been a dependable player at both ends of the ice, whether it be five-on-five or on special teams and he’s a real competitive kid. When the game is on the line, he wants to be out there to make a difference.”

Despite great reviews as a developing prospect, Brett Connolly’s progress has been slowed by injuries (unfortunate), healthy scratches (more on this later), and time spent in the minor leagues. All told, he’s posted a disappointing 34 points in 139 NHL games, though he has mustered an excellent 120 points in 137 AHL contests.

In many ways, Connolly passes the eye test. He has a projectable NHL frame (6-foot-2, 180 lbs.), an outstanding ability to create offense and is credited with great overall hockey sense. His shot is strong and he’s shown a willingness to get to the right areas of the ice to score goals.

Connolly has also demonstrated a willingness to defend teammates. Though this isn’t a skill valued in an advanced stats environment, teammates are likely to appreciate Connolly’s willingness to step in and protect, even if his work as a pugilist leaves something to be desired:

But the scouting report comes up a little short for Connolly. His assertiveness wavers and his slight weight relative to his frame may help to explain his limited consistency at the NHL level despite success at the AHL level. Connolly hasn’t enjoyed much success at the NHL level and has battled hard just to secure a role in the NHL. Former coach Jon Cooper summed Connolly’s struggle well:

[Brett Connolly’s] first year he spent in the NHL and then he had to find himself in the minors for a couple of years, so he’s kind of fought through it, fought his way. If he stalled a little bit with us, I think going to a new team was going to be a fresh start for him.

In the end, Connolly’s scouting report presents a mixed bag of untapped potential and shortfalls. For a clearer picture, let’s take a look under the hood at some advanced statistics.

Crash Course on Connolly and His Corsi

There are an interesting number of positive indicators in Brett Connolly’s advanced stats.

Brett Connolly ‘Excited’ For Next Chapter In His Boston Bruins Career #nhl http://t.co/BEP9Ku9njb pic.twitter.com/wDPknKDLPZ — NHL by WordLink (@NHLbyWordLink) July 9, 2015

Connolly posted a 55.1 CF percent last season in 55 total games played. Despite Tampa Bay’s regular season puck possession success as a team, Connolly’s mark was 3.4 percent better than team average. In WOWY, only Lightning teammate Anton Stralman posted a better CF percent without Connolly. Forwards Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat were virtually even with/without Connolly. Every other Lightning teammate was worse when skating away from Connolly.

In his extremely limited minutes in Boston, the pattern mostly continued. Brad Marchand, and Patrice Bergeron were better without Connolly, as was Reilly Smith. All other Bruins were worse in puck possession without Connolly. All of these figures were collected in only five games and should be regarded as such.

On the whole, these figures suggest that Connolly was a possession booster for all but the very best puck managers on either team.

Stephen Burtch’s dCorsi stat shows Connolly’s potential to further impact his team. For those unfamiliar with dCorsi, it is defined as:

Players with extremely high or consistently high dCorsi values are playing above their usage, while players with extremely low or consistently low dCorsi values are in over their head with respect to their usage. In either case, it should probably be adjusted if possible to improve how they are being used. A team that is being used “ideally” would theoretically have a dCorsi of zero (which is basically impossible due to the randomness inherent in the sport of hockey).

In his 50 games in Tampa Bay, Connolly posted a dCorsi of 8.82 per 60 minutes, the second-highest mark for the Lightning. His dCorsi Impact was 70.58, fifth-best on the team. In on-ice terms, these stats show that Connolly was underused in Tampa. With a greater role in Boston, Connolly can be reasonably expected to boost the possession play of his linemates further if given greater opportunities and time-on-ice.

Congrats to Brett Connolly of the Lightning on his first multi goal game in the NHL! #artofscoring pic.twitter.com/zeAyIuqHrU — Easton Hockey (@Easton_Hockey) December 2, 2014

In terms of goals, Connolly’s underlying stats are positive as well.

Connolly scored 1.13 goals per 60 at 5-on-5. Among players with more than 400 minutes played last year (between 35-40 games for depth players or maybe 10 games for Erik Karlsson?) Connolly’s goal rate ranked 16th in the NHL. His shooting percentage was also very strong, ranking 24th in the NHL (>400 mins played). This mark is higher than his NHL career average but, for a sniper, could potentially be a sign of development. It could also be a fluke.

Brett Connolly benefitted from no particular luck (PDO of 100.1) though, as mentioned, his 14.5 percent shooting percentage on 83 shots last season was higher than his career average shooting percentage (9 percent). For a new-look Bruins roster, Connolly should be given the chance to prove it isn’t a fluke.

Connolly’s Graphs

Corsi, Goal, Shot Generation, Shot Suppression Impact and Passing

In general, Connolly is quickly tending towards being a positive impact on his linemates in puck possession and goal-scoring. Connolly’s ice time has lagged behind the average skater (bottom graph) but his offensive production (especially goals/60 and Relative Corsi Against/60) have been quietly strong. Connolly’s indicators point to some measure development in Connolly’s game, even if his point totals haven’t reflected this growth.

As the passing graph indicates, passing is just not Connolly’s game. As a sniping winger, Bruins coach Claude Julien would be wise to line Connolly up with a centerman who looks to pass first on offense to take advantage of Connolly’s latent goal scoring potential.

The #Bruins re-up Brett Connolly and Jimmy Hayes. @CataCarryOn breaks the signings down.http://t.co/lYsNZ6tfTb pic.twitter.com/DfyI9e3DG0 — Today's Slapshot (@TodaysSlapshot) July 6, 2015

So, what to make of Brett Connolly?

After great reviews as a prospect, Connolly has yet to make his mark in the NHL. Consistency and size have limited the goal-scoring winger above the AHL level. Consistent minutes have been difficult to secure and Connolly is now with his second team at the age of 23.

However, some advanced stats reveal a player that is quietly developing. Connolly is a positive possession influence and has scored goals at a good rate relative to his playing time. Connolly isn’t a physical force and he will never pile up assists. But, riding shotgun with a good passing centre, Connolly still has the potential to develop into a complementary offensive piece in the NHL.

As the Bruins juggle their roster and re-shape their top-six forwards, Connolly deserves the chance to show what he can do with consistent playing time next year. Count on Connolly delivering a “show-me” season on his one-year deal.

What do you think, Bruins fans? Will Brett Connolly finally realize some of his untapped potential next season or is he destined for a depth role in Boston?