SABRA LANE: Could it be that Brexit, the UK voting to leave the EU, is the result of a cascading series of events due in part to climate change?

Robert Glasser, a visiting fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, thinks a case can be argued that it might well have had an impact, and that it could be an example of the disruptive side-effects of a warming planet.

He's warning in a new report out this morning, that Australia needs to be better prepared to deal with an 'era of disasters', which will have a profound effect on our economy and way of life.

Dr Glasser previously served as the special representative to the UN Secretary-General on risk reduction and he joins us now.

Good morning and welcome.

Let's get to that Brexit argument first.

ROBERT GLASSER: Good morning.

SABRA LANE: Can you concisely explain your thinking on how climate change played a role there?

ROBERT GLASSER: Yeah, so there was a persistent drought that effected the region, probably the worst drought in something like 900 years and as a result of that drought there were major failures of crops and literally millions of people moved from rural areas into the cities and when they arrived they were exacerbating existing social tensions.

So this wasn't by any means the cause of the Syrian civil war, but it was certainty a factor and that migration, the increased instability resulted in this cascading, really profound cascading impacts.

You had a refugee crisis in the region that became a refugee crisis in Europe, actually a global refugee crisis.

There was quite a lot of discussion at the time about the refugee problem in the UK and it was a major feature of the discussions around Brexit. And so you had the Brexit, this contributing to Brexit and you had it also contributing at the same time to the rise of right wing populist governments in Europe that further undermined the EU as an institution.

So it was a profound sequence of events for which climate changes and drought in this case was a contributing factor.

SABRA LANE: All right, and you think cascading effects around drought, food security and people movement are risks that Australia and our neighbours should be prepared for - how big a risk is it?

ROBERT GLASSER: I think it's an enormous risk, particularly in our region as we're in a country that has many near neighbours - highly densely populated, less developed countries.

We know that the collapse of coral reefs which are now probably sadly likely by 2 degrees of warming will affect 10 per cent of fish supplies, it's the fish nurseries. That will have a huge impact on 130 million people who rely on fish in our region.

We know that the warming climate is already additionally causing fish species to move towards the poles, again with a huge decrease in fish stocks in our region in the tropics in general.

We know that higher temperatures will increase, will have more El Ninos as a result of climate change, which will cause bush fires, major fires in countries like Indonesia in our region.

We have the increase in crop pests from rising temperatures. We have the heat stress, which will make it harder for people to work in fields to produce the crops, and we know that the same things will be happening outside of our region.

So the options for countries like Indonesia to purchase, for example, grains from other countries as Indonesia did during a major drought in the 90s may not exist anymore.

SABRA LANE: So Dr Glasser, sorry you argue that senior military and security leaders need to be aware of this and preparing for this - how?

ROBERT GLASSER: Well I think you know, there are a couple of things. First of all, the Australian Defence Forces will probably become much more active in responding to disasters within Australia.

So there will be an increase in demand on the forces to set up joint commands, as happened during the Black Saturday fires, to provide relief — as they have been doing in Queensland in the wake of the recent consecutive and simultaneous hazards that buffeted Queensland.

And they will be needed to respond to security threats that arise from climate induced instability in our region.

Generally the military designs its forces for traditional military threats and then the residual capacities is what is used for other things, but I think that will have to change.

SABRA LANE: All right, Dr Glasser from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, thanks for joining AM this morning.

ROBERT GLASSER: My pleasure thanks.