Where Muslims have an alternative to the Congress, that is not the BJP, they have already moved en masse.

Recent statements by Muslim leaders cautioning the Congress against creating a Modi bogey reveals how deeply betrayed the community feels by the party.

With nothing to show but a trail of un-kept promises made worse by its refusal to act against law enforcement agencies for implicating Muslim youth in terror cases that have been trashed by the courts, the Congress-led government is looking at an extremely disillusioned constituency.

How will this disillusionment of Muslim voters with the Congress play out, come 2014? And who stands to gain from this shift?

“The Muslim anger with the Congress party is not a recent phenomenon. The disenchantment began many years ago, even before the demolition of the BabriMasjid,” says S. Q. R Ilyas, general secretary of the recently formed Welfare Party of India, which aspires to be an alternative to “corrupt, communal, opportunistic and criminalised” politics.

In states, where a strong secular alternative has emerged, Ilyas says, the Muslims have already left the Congress fold. “Whenever a secular alternative at the state level has emerged, the Muslims have voted for it. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress is no longer coming to power. In Bihar, its situation is pathetic,” says Ilyas.

As Sanjay Kumar, psephologist and fellow at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) points out, “In states, where the Congress is up against a regional force, there is already a shift of the Muslim vote away from Congress. Like in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam. In these states, the Muslim voters have a choice. In Bihar, for example they have voted for Lalu Prasad Yadav in a big way over several elections. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has been a popular choice (getting almost 50 percent of the Muslim vote). This shift of the Muslim vote away from Congress has already begun.”

However, Kumar predicts the shift away from the Congress could widen, come 2014.

“Now looking forward to 2014, in states where it is a bi-polar contest between the Congress and the BJP, I don’t think Muslim voters have a choice. Whether they are happy or dissatisfied, they will still vote for the Congress. But in states where they have a choice we might see more of a shift of the Muslim voters away from Congress towards regional parties.”

Providing background to how Muslims have voted over the years for the Congress party, Kumar says,“Since 1996 to 2009, nationally, about 40-38 per cent of Muslims have voted for the Congress. If you look at states where there is a bi-polar contest between BJP and the Congress, like say in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and similar states, Muslim voters hardly have a choice. In these states, approximately 70-75 percent of the Muslims have voted for the Congress.”

So a strong anti-Congress wave among Muslims would have resulted in a significant drop in those percentages for the Congress.

But that was until the BJP decided to name its prime ministerial candidate. Enter Narendra Modi.

Ilyas explains how Modi’s wading into the national political scene has completely changed what is at stake for the Muslim voter.

“Muslims are extremely disturbed by the policies of the Congress. They feel the party is interested only in itself and not in fulfilling promises they made to the people. This was the position before the BJP introduced Modi as their prime ministerial candidate. I don’t know what compelled the BJP to bring in Modi. The BJP didn’t sense that the Muslim community is very much disturbed with the Congress party and that they may not vote for it. But with the naming of Modi, the anger against the Congress party has been overtaken by the fear of Modi coming to power. Many of the Muslim organizations say that they are angry with the Congress but that this is not the time to disturb the Congress party. We may fight the Congress, but the greater evil is Modi coming to power.”

What this will result in, say observers, is strategic voting by Muslims in favour of the candidate most likely to defeat the BJP candidate. For instance, in UP, it could be the SP or the BSP candidate who may enjoy that winning edge.

Says Kumar of CSDS, “In states, where we see a third party, such as in UP, Bihar, Assam, if the BJP is seen as a party that is surging ahead, certainly the Muslim voter will carefully weigh their options before voting and won’t go by past tradition. For example, in the past, they have been voting for Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), if they see RJD not in the contest and BJP likely to win that constituency, they will make some strategic choices. And strategic choice may or may not benefit Congress. I would say it may not benefit the Congress because overall there is a mood among people against Congress party.”

Adds Kumar, “In the states where there is a third party, it will be in a stronger position than the Congress to defeat the BJP. For example, in Bihar, the JanataDal (U) or the RJD will be seen as more formidable as compared to the Congress in defeating the BJP candidate. In UP, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or the Samajwadi Party (SP) is more formidable when it comes to defeating the BJP, not the Congress. It is therefore very unlikely that the Congress will benefit from the reverse polarisation of the Muslim vote.”

However, a factor that could work in favour of the Congress in UP is SP’s handling of the recent Muzaffarnagar riots.

“After the Muzaffarnagar riots,the Muslims feel cheated by the SP. This could benefit either the BSP or the Congress. Mostly, I think the BSP will benefit,” says Nisar Ul Haq, a political science professor at Jamia Milia Islamia University.

Adds Ilyas, “SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav may try to restore confidence of the Muslims, but in western UP the Muslims have detached from the SP. Whether they return to Congress or vote for the BSP will depend on how these two parties will behave in the future.”

In states where it is a bi-polar contest, says Kumar, Muslims are already sharply polarised in favour of the Congress. “For any community, voting for one party to the tune of 70 percent is a very high level of polarisation. The threat of Modi might push the Muslim polarisation in favour of Congress by a couple of more percentages, so it could be 72-74 per cent.”

While the Modi factor may not see any significant increase in Muslims voting for the Congress, what it has definitely achieved is prevent a slide in Muslim votes for the Congress given their anger against the party.

“If Modi was not a factor, block voting for the Congress would not happen. In states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, where the fight is between the Congress and BJP, the Muslims wouldn’t have voted in large numbers. The voting percentage would have decreased. When threat mentality operates, Muslims vote in large numbers. If the situation is normal, their enthusiasm for voting in large numbers would not be there. Bringing Modi has brought that fear of Gujarat riots again,”explains Ilyas.

Kumar agrees. “If Modi was not there, there was no threat factor. The Congress performance would have gone down even further. At least now, for one section of voters Modi represents a threat. For one section of voters, there is target to defeat the BJP. There will be some shift. In the absence of Modi, Congress would have had nothing to say to voters. The best thing for the Congress has already been done by the BJP.”

It is in this context that the recent statements by general secretary of Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Hind MehmoodMadani and Shia cleric Maulana Kalbe Sadiqshould be seen, says Ilyas. “Madani made a very clever and political statement. He said the Congress should not try to threaten the Muslims. If they want the Muslim vote they must deliver.This doesn’t mean Muslims are going to vote for Modi. They are only pressurising the Congress. Media misread it, interpreting it as Muslim support for Modi.”

That the BJP fears block voting against it is evident from Modi’s outreach to Muslims. “They want to dispel the impression that the Muslim community is against them and they want to send out the message that it is the Congress rather than the BJP that has done them more harm.They want to minimise the polarisation of Muslims in favour of the Congress or secular parties. They know they are not going get the Muslim support but they want to minimise the votes getting polarized against them. They want to reduce panic voting,” says Ilyas.