The Washington Wizards are 19-7, currently in third place in the Eastern Conference behind the Toronto Raptors (22-7) and Atlanta Hawks (20-7). With nearly one-third of the 2014-15 season completed, Washington is just 1.5 games back of the No. 1 spot in the conference.

In fact, only a single NBA team, the Golden State Warriors (23-3), has fewer losses than the Wizards do.

Is Washington for real? It’s hard to imagine anyone but the most die-hard of Wiz fans believing they might actually be championship contenders this year. But the more time that goes by with the Wizards remaining perched near the top of the East standings, the more seriously they have to be taken as a threat to win the conference.

Most NBA fans and writers alike would probably say that there are only two legitimate contenders in the East–the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Chicago Bulls. The Hawks are a huge surprise to this point.

Toronto won 48 games and finished with the No. 3 seed last year, which may or may not have earned them enough street credit to fuel their bandwagon as a potential conference champ.

In 2013-14 Washington finished with just four fewer regular season victories than the Raptors and actually won a playoff series, whereas Toronto got bounced by the Brooklyn Nets in the first round.

Regardless of reputations built on last year, there are some red flags that suggest the Wizards may not really be as close to an elite-level team as they appear.

One thing to take note of is scoring differential. The Raptors are first in the East, outscoring their opponents by an average of 8.1 points per game. Atlanta is second at +6.0 and the Bulls are third at +4.0. The Wizards are fourth at +3.7.

While Washington’s .731 winning percentage is not far off from Toronto’s .759, the more than double scoring differential disparity suggests a wide gap between the two teams.

The Wizards schedule strength so far is also fairly discouraging. Of Washington’s 27 games, only eight have been against clubs that currently have winning records.

According to ESPN.com, the Wizard’s opponents have a winning percentage of .474, which ranks 26th of 30 teams in the league (although the Raptors are 25th at .482 and the Hawks are 28th at .473). TeamRankings.com rates Washington’s schedule 29th, and PredictionMachine.com has it at 30th.

Before losing to the Phoenix Suns on Sunday, the Wizards had won 10 of their previous 11 games. In his latest NBA Power Rankings column, ESPN’s Marc Stein put the Wiz at No. 11 (No. 4 in the East), saying:

We were just about to talk up Washington’s 6-1 start against Western Conference teams and how much it jumps off the page when the rest of the East is 46-93 against the West. So what happens? The Wiz lose at home to a Suns squad that was in a full-fledged tailspin as recently as Tuesday.

The Suns matchup marked the beginning of a very difficult upcoming stretch for Washington. In their next 13 games the Wizards play the Bulls three times, the defending-champion San Antonio Spurs twice, and also pay visits to Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and Atlanta.

That’s 10 extremely difficult contests against squads with a combined 123-71 record (with several of those losses belonging to the Thunder when they were without Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook), seven of which are on the road.

It’s far too early to consider Washington a favorite in the Eastern Conference just yet. But if they’re still near the top of the standings in three weeks, then clearly they will have earned the right to be part of the discussion.