Queensland businessman faces myriad legal challenges but says ‘love’ will see his party prevail at the election

The sixty million dollar man: how Clive Palmer is funding his own political resurrection

Clive Palmer faces many obstacles in his bid to re-enter parliament and control the Senate balance of power.

There’s the issue of trust, because Queensland Nickel workers are still owed $7m Palmer says he has paid into a trust fund to be disbursed – but only after the election.

There is the Australian Securities and Investment Commission charge for an alleged breach of the criminal code relating to the proposed takeover of the President’s Club at his Sunshine Coast resort, a disqualification from parliament if Palmer were convicted.

But one thing that is not troubling Brian Burston, the One Nation defector leading the United Australia party Senate ticket in New South Wales, is the possibility that candidates could get elected and quit, as Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus did after entering the Senate for Palmer’s party in 2013.

“Back then [Palmer] was a bit rusty in selecting candidates,” Burston told Guardian Australia. “This time it’s taken place over many, many months, they’re well vetted, there’s procedures in place where the falling apart … of the party will not happen. It cannot happen, or there’ll be consequences for those that want to walk.”

Burston says the party has “various strategies in place to prevent that happening” including “signed contracts”, which he declines to clarify by spelling out which penalties might be incurred for disloyalty.

Palmer himself is less menacing. Asked what would keep successful UAP candidates in line, he responds by text: “Love.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Former One Nation senator Brian Burston is leading the United Australia party Senate ticket in New South Wales. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

Palmer is back as a political force in Australia. Off the back of an advertising campaign that has cost at least $30m since September – and counting – he has propelled his party into the double digits in some public single-seat polls.

Even in Herbert, which centres on Townsville where 800 workers lost their jobs at Queensland Nickel, the Newspoll recorded UAP on 14%.

On Thursday UAP sealed a preference deal with the Coalition, a move that helps Liberals and Nationals in key marginals and gives Palmer a boost to take a Senate seat in Queensland. Then on Friday he embarrassed Labor by alleging that the opposition too had sought a preference deal with his insurgent operation.

Whatever the result on 18 May, the fact Palmer is in the running is a remarkable comeback for a man who was persona non grata in Australian politics due to the travails of Queensland Nickel, which went into liquidation in 2016.

He’s harvesting the anti-major party vote. Last election it was One Nation and Derryn Hinch ... This time it looks like it’s back to Palmer again. Labor senator Murray Watt

The controversial billionaire, made rich off his iron ore, nickel and coal holdings, is perhaps most famous for his plan to build a replica of the Titanic.

Palmer’s political life started on the conservative side of politics. He was the state campaign director of the National party in Queensland under Joh Bjelke-Petersen in the 1980s. Later, he joined the Liberal party and resigned his membership in 2013 to set up his own political operation and enter the lower house as MP for Fairfax.

In one sense the preference deal with the Coalition is a political homecoming, but Palmer’s policies – which are few and far between – are a grab-bag of populist ideas that make him hard to place on the political spectrum.

Palmer appeal: tax deductions and economic nationalism

Two candidates interviewed by Guardian Australia – George Zoraya, the candidate in Chisholm, and Mubahil Ahmed in Bruce, say the UAP’s pitch is targeted at the hip pocket.

There is the party’s call for a 20% tax reduction for Australians living in regional areas and the brainwave to follow the US’s lead and make mortgage payments tax deductible for Australians’ primary residence.

Labor senator Murray Watt says: “As a businessman Clive Palmer must know most of his economic policy would bankrupt the country and it’s clearly a stunt to win votes.”

But there is also the call for investment in high-speed rail and the economic nationalism of bringing jobs back to Australia, brutally undercut by a decision to print campaign shirts in China.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Clive Palmer with Dio Wang, Jacqui Lambie, Ricky Muir and Glenn Lazarus in 2013. Photograph: Paul Miller/AAP

Burston says the campaign will focus on “keeping Australia Australian-owned”.

“We’re very worried about Chinese influence, [foreign powers] buying our strategic assets, things like ports and the airstrip in WA, around Karratha.”

It’s a far-cry from the overtly racist appeals of Burston’s former party One Nation, whose leader, Pauline Hanson, has called for a suspension of immigration and warned that Australia is “in danger of being swamped by Muslims”.

But the economic nationalism of the United Australia party appeals to the same Australia-first instinct, and sees it in competition with other conservative and far-right parties for votes.

One upside for progressives of the Palmer resurgence is the possibility that One Nation may fail in its bid for a Queensland Senate seat.

The relatively blank slate of policies leaves candidates free to improvise a little. Zoraya says candidates are supposed to “be honest and say we haven’t developed that policy” when voters ask for more specifics.

Burston says the UAP will “likely oppose” most of Labor’s economic policies, criticising the proposed $34bn impost on superannuation and the decision to stop cash rebates to self-funded retirees for excess franking credits.

But he says the party “may” make an exception for policies that “cater for those who have already invested”, such as the negative gearing and capital gains tax policies, which are grandfathered.

Anti-politics without the money troubles

Watt says Palmer’s resurgence is “simply a function of the money that he’s spent”.

“He’s harvesting the anti-major party vote that is always around,” he says. “Last election it was One Nation and Derryn Hinch that won it, the previous time it was Palmer.

“This time it looks like it’s back to Palmer again.”

Money is a major advantage the UAP has on other minor parties, whose candidates often personally finance campaigns.

“It’s all funded by Clive – he’s funding all of this out of his personal wealth,” Burston says. “There’s no imposition on candidates at all. All the advertising, all of the promotional material is provided by and paid for by UAP through Clive’s personal financial support of the party.

“He will ultimately spend about $50m-60m on the campaign.”

Burston says the party is “saturating the media with advertising” just the same as Domino’s, Woolworths, Coles or McDonald’s.

“We’re not trying to buy votes but we’re trying to get the message out to as many people as we can and the more repetitious you make that the more it’s going to sink in.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Queensland Nickel refinery at Yabulu near Townsville. The commonwealth has taken Palmer to federal court to try and recoup the $67m it paid the workers under the fair entitlements guarantee. Photograph: Andrew Rankin/AAP

Receipts please, Clive

Watt says it is “stunning to see a billionaire who forced taxpayers to pay his own workers” now running to re-enter parliament.

Palmer denies any wrongdoing, maintaining a separation between himself and Queensland Nickel that is under challenge in the Queensland supreme court.

Special purpose liquidators are chasing $200m paid by Queensland Nickel to Palmer and related entities before it went into liquidation. And in a separate federal court case the commonwealth is attempting to recoup the $67m it paid workers under the fair entitlements guarantee.

Burston prefers to focus on the “positive side” – that Palmer purchased the Townsville refinery and “gave workers six-and-a-half years of further employment they otherwise wouldn’t have had”.

As for the taxpayers’ money, “it’s a guarantee that other companies have been paid out [from] as well, it’s a company that’s gone into liquidation”.

Palmer has attempted to defuse criticism of his record, by paying $7m into a trust fund for the remaining unpaid entitlements of Queensland Nickel workers, to be disbursed on 21 May, three days after the election.

The AWU’s Queensland secretary, Steve Baker, says it is “unusual” for Palmer to promise to pay workers’ unpaid entitlements but then “delay until after the election”.

“And that makes me suspicious about payment being made,” he tells Guardian Australia.

Burston says the $7m had been paid into a trust fund “so [Palmer] no longer has control over that money”.

“The purpose of the trust fund is to pay out the workers and that’s what will happen once applications are made.”

Palmer, by text message, says the AWU are “just fools”.

With the Queensland supreme court case set to be heard from 15 July and the Asic criminal matter listed for a further mention in the Brisbane magistrates court on 28 June, there will be no result in either before voters go to the polls.

The only obstacle then is the trust of voters. Their belief in the businessman turned politician’s pitch will determine whether Palmer’s brand of anti-politics and a big ad spend can see him enter parliament for a second time.