Anxious shoppers trying to figure out how they will get to the American Dream were supposed to begin seeing advertisements explaining transit options to the mega-mall last week. But, there’s one problem. The bigger plan for train and bus service to the development is still being finalized.

The clock is now running -- it’s less than three months to the announced Oct. 25 opening day for the huge shopping and entertainment complex in East Rutherford. Part of a March 2014 agreement called for NJ Transit officials to start advertising transit plans “no later than three months prior to the scheduled opening” of American Dream. The three-month mark passed last week.

There is a lot riding on the transit plan, even if you drive to American Dream.

It has a lofty goal of getting 50% of mall customers out of their cars and on trains or buses. Even the conservative estimate in a 2012 transit plan by consultants Parsons Brinkerhoff calls for one-third of American Dream customers to shun their cars for transit. The mall expects 40 million visitors each year.

About 15% of fans going to NFL games at MetLife use transit now, the report said.

The ad deadline

The three-month advertising deadline was one of many terms in the 2014 Memorandum of Understanding between Triple 5, the developers of American Dream, the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, NJ Transit and the state Department of Transportation.

NJ Transit officials said the advertising campaign and transit plan is coming, although they declined to give a specific release date for either.

“NJ Transit continues to collaborate with American Dream and other stakeholders to finalize the transportation plan for the complex and we will advertise that plan to customers through all of our communication channels,” said Jim Smith, an NJ Transit spokesman.

Spokespeople for the mega-mall did not respond to a request for comment.

They have a plan...sort of

Last month, NJ Transit officials spoke very generally about transit plans for American Dream after allocating $8 million in the fiscal year 2020 budget for service. Some of that funding will pay for hiring more drivers and buying more buses, said Kevin Corbett, NJ Transit CEO and President.

The plan and the agreement call for expanding three existing local bus routes to serve American Dream.

One is the 85 Route from Hoboken, a place where 60% of residents commute by public transit, the highest in the state, and almost 27% of households don’t own a car, according to 2017 U.S. Census numbers.

That bus now goes from Hoboken Terminal to retail centers on Route 3 that are east of American Dream. That bus travels through the Jersey City Heights and Union City on its way to Secaucus retail centers.

The other two routes are geared toward transporting employees, the 703 from Haledon and Paterson, that currently goes to East Rutherford, and the 722 bus that now runs between the Hackensack bus terminal and the Meadowlands.

Passaic, Paterson, Hackensack and Union City were identified in the study as places where employees would most likely come from. The routes are in the 2014 agreement.

American Dream also is building a transit hub at the mall to accommodate customers who take the bus.

Other bus service is waiting in the wings.

Some other routes could include shuttle buses from the Secaucus train station and express buses from the Port Authority Bus Terminal in New York. However express buses to and from New York will likely be run by a private carrier, according to the Parsons plan.

Where is the train?

The centerpiece of the plan is hourly rail service on the Meadowlands line between the Secaucus Junction station and MetLife Stadium. Now, that line is used for Giants and Jets home football games and large concerts.

Under the plan, the current eight-car trains that travel the line would ultimately be expanded to 10-car trains by lengthening stadium station platforms. The agreement sets goals of almost doubling the number of people transported to 18,000 every 90 minutes on NFL games days. That includes days when Met Life stadium events are attended by more than 50,000 people, according to the agreement.

Exactly how that happens is left up to NJ Transit.

But a date for when daily rail service ramps up is not known.

Longer-term plans call for train service to be added on the MetLife stadium rail line, but Corbett said the primary service on that line will be for events at the stadium. An NJ Transit spokesman declined to provide a date for the start of rail service.

Will it work?

The 3 million square foot American Dream will contain a DreamWorks Waterpark, Nickelodeon theme park, a ski and snowboard park, an NHL‐sized skating and hockey rink, an 18‐hole miniature golf course, a Legoland Discovery Center, an aquarium, a luxury movie theater and more. It will have over 100 dining and specialty food options including more than 20 full‐service restaurants, in addition to retail stores.

Some experts questioned if it’s too much to put on NJ Transit.

“This is another example of transportation agencies being asked to bear the impossible burden of making up for development planning where transit needs are an afterthought," said Nat Bottigheimer, New Jersey Director of the Regional Plan Association.

Another issue is that NJ Transit is facing challenges that didn’t exist in 2012 and 2014 when the plans were finalized, such as trains canceled due to a lack of engineers and equipment.

“We are looking at a different NJT in 2019 than the agency in 2013,” said Janna Chernetz, Tri-State Transportation Campaign deputy director.

“Funding shortfalls and employee issues have been significantly exasperated in the years following the MOU and Parsons report.”

While there are projections about ridership and how many people will go to American Dream, you have no idea what will happen until it opens, she said.

“Ridership also depends on the origin of the trip. NJT is not within reach, unfortunately, of every (New Jersey) resident," Chernetz said. “NJT may capture more of the out of state or out of country traveler, but will it be enough to capture the N.J. resident?”

NJ Advance Media reporter Allison Pries contributed to this report.

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

Allison Pries may be reached at apries@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @AllisonPries.

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