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The Americans must provide a full case file to Canadian prosecutors by the end of January. Then, Canada has 30 days to determine whether to formally start the extradition process, which results in an extradition hearing at British Columbia’s Supreme Court. If the court approves extradition, Meng can appeal that decision all the way up to the federal Supreme Court, which could take a long time. If the appeals fail, the final decision to send her to the U.S. rests with Canada’s attorney general.

In that case, said Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould in a statement on Wednesday, “I will ultimately have to decide on the issue of surrender of the person sought for extradition. Therefore, it would be inappropriate for me to comment on the facts of this case at this time. Doing so would risk undermining both the independence of the court proceedings and the proper functioning of Canada’s extradition process.”

Photo by CTV via AFP

Meng’s counsel could ask for a judicial review of the attorney general’s decision, meaning the justice minister would have to disclose the advice she (or a future attorney general) received from officials. Even so, about 90 per cent of extraditions to the U.S. are granted, according to a second senior Canadian government official.

Although it is “rare,” according to the official, the U.S. attorney general could also just choose to drop the extradition request.

While the Canadian leadership has been careful to stress that there has been no political interference in the extradition, U.S. President Donald Trump has explicitly linked Meng’s prosecution to his country’s trade relationship with China. Trump told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday he would “certainly intervene” in Meng’s extradition should it be “good” for trade.