A leading media commentator says claims by rival streaming service Lightbox that one in five Sky subscribers will pull the plug once the Rugby World Cup is over shows the pay-TV network face major challenges in a rapidly-changing television world.

Throng's Regan Cunliffe said he agreed with the Lightbox findings. "We've seen some huge changes in the TV landscape in the last little while and the Rugby World Cup is something that New Zealanders love to talk about and love to watch, but once that last game goes to air, I think there will be a large chunk of people who will say, 'I'm done with this, I'm off to watch Lightbox or Netflix'."

Nearly one in five Sky subscribers will pull the plug once the Rugby World Cup is over, according to the report, commissioned by Lightbox's public relations agency, Pead, in which Perceptive Research asked 500 New Zealanders about their viewing habits.



Nearly half of those consumers planning to ditch Sky would also sign up with competing online streaming services, the report claims.

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Television viewers are looking for better value than is offered by package deals incorporating a range of channels that may not appeal, says Lightbox CEO Kym Niblock. "People are focused on what their actual needs are - what am I paying for that I'm not using."

Once the Webb Ellis Cup has been handed over, 16 percent of Sky subscribers will reportedly move on.



But Sky hit back saying it would be "stunned" if this was the case.



"My response would be let's wait and see what happens," said Sky spokeswoman Kirsty Way. "It's a known fact that on the back of really big sporting events Sky does drop some customers, but that's after a big increase in customers."



Internationally, traditional linear television remains popular for live sport coverage, premium programming and for providing a social experience, according to the Ericsson Consumerlab TV and Media 2015 report, based on a survey of 20,000 people in 20 countries.



However, this is more true for viewers aged 60 plus. Millennials want to view programmes at a time to suit them, not when they happen to be screening, researchers say.



"I absolutely do acknowledge that viewership is moving to online, especially with the younger generation," says Way, who notes that Sky is putting more emphasis on growing its online streaming services Neon and Fan Pass, for sports fanatics.

Andrew Cornaga / Photosport The new report claims many TV viewers are likely to move on from Sky once the RWC is over.

Cunliffe said Fan Pass, which allows viewers to choose which sports they want to follow and pay accordingly, was a "lame attempt to get into the digital space - the costings are ridiculous".

Niblock said the millenial generation had different expectations and less patience for traditional television models: "They have never paid any attention to appointment viewing."

They can also get their entertainment from a multitude of sources both locally and overseas, some of them illegal. Staying competitive in this environment is a matter of presenting the programming people most want to invest time in.

"It's all about content," said Niblock. "All the research shows people are quite happy to have more than one service if they get the content they want."

A 'NEW ERA' IN NZ

Trisha Dunleavy, associate professor at the School of English, Film, Theatre and Media Studies at Victoria University, is wary of the report.

"If I were Lightbox, I'd pay someone really well for research that would provide me with the facts that explained that. To an extent there's going to be a churn associated with the World Cup. I don't think it's all about sport anymore, but then I can't speak for the majority of New Zealanders for whom rugby is very important."

However, Dunleavy acknowledges that as a more traditional player, Sky "is probably in trouble".

"Clearly Sky's problem is that it is priced well above its competitors - it didn't have any competitors for many years. We're in a new era in New Zealand television and we don't really know how viewers are going to react."

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