Officials expect the Libyan smuggling route to Italy to again become the main route into Europe this summer as deportations from Greece back to Turkey put migrants off travelling via eastern Mediterranean paths.

Matteo de Bellis, a research with Amnesty International, said: “We should expect tens of thousands to attempt to depart this spring and summer bound for Lampedusa. With the closure of the EU-Turkey border to migrants, we may learn once again how closing one route pushes people to another route.”

European defence chiefs are also expected to meet in the coming weeks to pave the way for a possible military intervention to bolster the Libyan government against Islamic State militants.

Senior officers will hold planning talks in Rome to discuss how many troops are likely to be needed to support the new UN-backed government, and train its security forces.

America’s envoy this weekend urged the new unity government in Tripoli to accept international offers of help, suggesting time was short to combat Islamic State militants who have seized swathes of coastline.

Ministers are considering sending as many as 1,000 British troops to join an Italian-led mission training the Libyan Army, as well as a separate mission to tackle trafficking gangs along the country’s coast.