Of about 30 personnel involved in the raid, only a few appear certain to face a court martial, including two soldiers who engaged in the attack, one of whom is alleged to have thrown a grenade. Both are reservists in the 1st Commando Regiment. Evidence would be heard by a court-martial panel made up of military professionals. The officers in charge on the night of the raid, who are full-time ADF members, face possible charges over their preparation and supervision, and would also face a court martial. Defence sources say the prosecution could undermine the operational effectiveness of the Special Operations Task Group in Afghanistan. ''This is not good news for us as a collective,'' a Defence source said. ''It's a hard enough job as it is, fighting with 20 [legal] ropes around your hands.'' Some of those involved in the raid first heard about the prospective charges last month, and many are dismayed the process has taken so long. Brigadier McDade has been assessing evidence since November.

The troops were on a ''capture or kill'' mission targeting an insurgent leader near the village of Surkh Morghab in Oruzgan province. A small group of the soldiers exchanged fire with an Afghan man who died, and grenades were thrown that resulted in the deaths of a teenager, two younger children and two babies. Other women and children were wounded. Brigadier McDade has advised senior commanders of her intentions. Lawyers from Defence and other government departments are assessing the ramifications of the likely courts martial. Brigadier McDade will review submissions and any likely defence arguments before finalising her decision. Defence and legal sources say Brigadier McDade's final decision is highly unlikely to change. Sources say she has maintained her independence through an unprecedented process. With significant frustration over the delay in announcing the charges, some commandos feel unfairly targeted by an investigation that has exposed long-standing rivalry between full-time and reserve soldiers. A senior member of the regiment, who served on the rotation, defended those involved.

''If the ADF bothers to describe the events in the compound in detail, it will be clear to any person that the troops, faced with a terrible situation, had no choice,'' the soldier said. ''That they all came out alive is actually an indication of their skill and courage.'' But those close to the investigation say the Australians had overwhelming force and the evidence gathered is sufficient to warrant charges. Night raids have been a significant source of friction between coalition commanders and the Afghan government, with Afghan politicians often pushing for more investigation of soldiers involved in civilian deaths. But Australian officers are angry, with one Defence source saying: ''Every time a bloke goes into a compound, he'll be thinking, 'F---, am I going to be charged with murder?'''

Another source said: ''It will undermine the whole system of war because at the back of every soldier's mind, they'll be thinking, 'If I f--- up, will I get charged?''' Military sources are adamant the soldiers did nothing wrong, and some familiar with the evidence believe it is not conclusive enough to secure a conviction. Loading One Defence observer familiar with coalition operations in Afghanistan said: ''If you look at the range of incidents across Iraq and Afghanistan every day, on the magnitude of negligence or tragedy, this is so far down the scale it's not funny.'' Commentators believe any possible court martial would offer the soldiers a fairer hearing than the recently proposed military court, because service members would be tried by their peers.