Screen: SNY/MLB

Zack Wheeler’s path to becoming the pitcher we know today has been an indirect route, no doubt. But if it weren’t for the calamity-filled terrain he’s been forced to traverse, it’s possible we would have never seen the new and improved version of himself that the 27-year-old has sprung on us this season.

Allow me to present a course of events in Zachary Harrison Wheeler’s career that have led up to this point: as a varsity ballplayer at East Paulding High in Dallas, Georgia, the Symrna native put up a 1.31 earned-run average in 64.1 innings, striking out 127 batters and winning the AAA Region Player of the Year award in his 2007 junior season.

His senior year was even more dominant. Wheeler put together a 9–0 0.54 ERA season in 77.2 innings with 151 strikeouts. This time, the hardware he collected at the end of the year was a bit more prestigious; he was named the Gatorade High School Player of the Year in Georgia. It vaulted his draft value sky-high.

Wheeler was selected sixth overall in that June’s MLB Draft by the San Francisco Giants and was given a $3.3 million signing bonus. During his time in the Giants’ system, the 6' 4" right-hander showed promise. In 138.2 innings between Single-A Augusta and High-A San Jose, Wheeler pitched to a 3.99 earned-run average with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but walks-per-nine values of 5.8 in 2010 and 4.8 in 2011.

That July the New York Mets acquired Zack Wheeler in the Carlos Beltran trade. To say he was highly-coveted is an understatement. Even though his statistics up until that point told an encouraging story, the raw talent that Wheeler possessed made this an incredibly exciting move at the time.

Beltran had a terrific run in New York, but the time had come for the Mets to move on with the pending free agent and the return they secured justified the move. Not only did it deepen the already strong reserve of arms that were suddenly popping up throughout the Mets’ minor league system in Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and eventually Noah Syndergaard. This provided an optimistic outlook for the future of this franchise, with some trepidation, naturally. (Not to mention the fact that the Mets didn’t know what they truly had in deGrom until he was first in the big leagues.)

As Wheeler progressed through his MiLB career, as well as through the Mets organization, the strides he took only gave that outlook a brighter hue. After putting up outstanding numbers right after his 2011 trade (2.00 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 in six starts with High-A St. Lucie), he reverted a bit in 2012. But he made gains in enough necessary areas to finally get the call he’d been waiting for in 2013; he was going to the show.

Zack Wheeler made his memorable MLB debut on June 18, the second game of a day-night doubleheader deemed “Super Tuesday” by Mets fans, with Harvey pitching the first game. Wheeler faced his hometown team, the Atlanta Braves, lasting six innings and allowing four hits and no earned runs with seven strikeouts and five walks. (Team captain David Wright of course guided him through it.) After getting knocked around a bit during his next two starts, Wheeler showed us all exactly the type of pitcher he could one day become. Maybe even a worthy 1a starter, with Harvey #1 of course.

During the month of July 2013, his second month in the majors, Wheeler pitched to a 2.73 earned-run average with 23 strikeouts in 29.2 innings of work with a .222/.312/.361 slash line against. He hit bumps along the way that season as any rookie will, but there was a lot more good than bad. He finished the season with a 3.42 ERA/4.17 FIP in 100 innings with 84 strikeouts and 46 walks, including his six-inning, one earned-run, 12 punch-out performance on August 15 in San Diego.

He was just as effective and began to come into his own a bit more in 2014 (3.54 ERA/3.55 FIP in 32 starts [185.1 IP] with 9.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9). He moved away from his fastball dramatically in his sophomore season (61.5 percent to 44 percent) and began incorporating his sinker a bit more (9.7 percent to 18 percent). He also, of course, had the rest of his five-pitch arsenal (changeup, slider, and curveball) at his disposal, and continued to flourish.

There was joy in Metsville, and with good reason. Between Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, and left-handed Long Island native, Steven Matz (the Mets’ first-round pick in 2009), the franchise had themselves a reincarnation of Generation K, but with more potential and, what felt like less risk of collapsing.

Yeah, we got a bit ahead of ourselves. At least in Wheeler’s case. During spring training in 2015, Wheeler completely tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, ending his season before it even began.

As per reports, Wheeler got emotional as he walked back into the Mets’ clubhouse that day, after speaking with Jeff Wilpon and team doctor David Altchek and hearing the bad news.

When Jeff Wilpon came and got me, I sort of knew. I was like, ‘Oh, man, it feels like I’m getting taken into the principal’s office.’ I sort of had a feeling that it wasn’t good then…They told me on the phone and I came out here and everybody was just sort of staring at me in this corner.

It was a gut-punch to the entire fanbase. We collectively groaned, “Not again,” as we’d been down this road with young pitchers in the past with less-than-thrilling results. But Wheeler said all the right things and stayed focused on getting back to business, which at the time was estimated as, in the best case scenario, before the All-Star break in 2016. Wheeler continued, again to Adam Rubin of (at the time) ESPN.

Of course I’m nervous about it, but you’ve got to do it and have that mindset when you’re coming back that you’re going to be 100 percent and better than you were before. Honestly, I’ve had pain in that spot in my elbow since I got drafted — since before I got drafted.

That last sentence speaks volumes about the preventative care aspect of both the Giants and the Mets respective organizations at the time, but that’s neither here nor there at this point. Off he went, in-and-out of surgery and down the road to recovery. He was almost traded in late July to the Milwaukee Brewers with Wilmer Flores for Carlos Gomez. The night every Met fans on Earth fell in love with Wilmer, when he had his moment in the sun and became the Walk-off King against the Nationals, all Wheeler can do was tweet.

Earlier that July 31, Wheeler was again rumored to be traded. Zack shot his shot and called GM Sandy Alderson. He told him directly he wanted to remain a Met. Sandy later said Wheeler’s words “actually had quite an impact.” Mets pitching prospect Michael Fulmer was the big name that went to Detroit for Yoenis Cespedes.

Wheeler was thisclose to making it all the way back to the major leagues before feeling some discomfort in that surgically-repaired elbow in a rehab outing in late June, only to find out he would miss the rest of the 2016 season with continued aftereffects from the surgery.

Folks wondered aloud whether we’d ever see Zack Wheeler return to being anything resembling the pitcher that emerged from the minor leagues with a bang just a few seasons before. After another lengthy rehab, lo and behold, Wheeler was back on the mound for the start of the 2017 season.

He certainly didn’t hit the ground running, but he did put together a terrific May, going 2–2 with a 2.74 earned-run average, 20 strikeouts and 12 walks. Unfortunately, things went south and by the end of July, Wheeler was placed on the 60-day disabled list with a stress reaction in his beleaguered elbow, ending yet another year early for the seemingly cursed flamethrower.

During his partial 2017 season, Wheeler had trouble getting his velocity back up to the level it was pre-Tommy John surgery. In 2014 his fastball averaged 96.2 MPH. In 2017, he was down to 95.4 MPH. Since his on-the-mound approach is so heavily predicated on that overpowering heat, it understandably affected the rest of his game negatively. It likely didn’t help that he was still pitching in pain, either.

He rested his arm for two months as prescribed, and took bone-strengthening medication every day for six months during his long offseason. The medicine, called Forteo, was administered by way of a shot to the stomach.

Wheeler is well on his way to reaching the 30-start goal he gave himself for 2018. And he’s got a new toy, to boot. Heading into the year, he adopted a split-fingered fastball that he’s added to his repertoire, replacing his sinker.

Check this thing out, courtesy of everyone’s pitching coach, Rob Friedman aka @PitchingNinja:

In a wonderful article from Lindsey Adler of The Athletic, Mets’ skipper Mickey Callaway spoke about pitchers needing to adapt. I should note, he was asked about Wheeler’s fastball, but the quote applies to the point I’m making just as well.

The biggest hurdle is identifying that, ‘OK, you know what, I’m not the same guy I used to be.’ Whether you have surgery or not, whether it’s old age that’s taken its toll, ‘OK, now I need to transition from a guy who is a thrower to a pitcher and be more cognizant of where I’m getting the ball and what I want to do with it.

And transitioned, he has. Wheeler has been getting the big-picture type of results he’s been in search of since his breakout seasons of 2013 and 2014 out of virtually his entire array of pitches.

As per Fangraphs at the start of this July, Wheeler this season is back to throwing his fastball over 60 percent of the time, mixing in his slider (17.5%), curve (10.2%), and changeup (4.4%), as well as dropping in that splitter right when it’s been needed, which is 7.9 percent of the time. Brooks Baseball has what I am saying in sweet multi-color graph form.

His fastball has consistently increased in velocity as the season has worn on, which is an incredibly encouraging sign, from 94.4 MPH in April, 95.2 MPH in May, and 96.2 MPH in June. (Ron Darling on air attributed this to successfully repeating his mechanics.) Combine that power with the way Wheeler is able to finesse his secondary pitches over the corners puts him in a very good position to succeed.

Naturally, being able to locate one’s pitches accurately while changing speeds on a consistent basis will assuredly keep opposing hitters off-balance. Executing that plan satisfactorily, and more importantly, consistently, is usually where things fall apart for MLB hurlers.

Zack Wheeler seems to have finally discovered something that has him firing on all cylinders this season for the Mets. Along with finally being 100 percent healthy for the first time in a very long time, the right-hander has put everything in place, using the lessons he’s learned from his time under Terry Collins and Dan Warthen, up to and through his current tutelage with current manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland.

Wheeler has batters swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone at a higher rate than he’s ever approached in his career. His O-Swing percentage is 32.6, over four percentage points higher than his 28.5 percent career-high in 2013.

His Z-Swing rate (swings on pitches inside the strike zone) is up to 69.3 percent with an ungodly 52.8 percent O-Swing rate and a mind-shattering 92.3 percent Z-Swing rate on that splitter. This, as is the way of the pitching world, has opened up the floodgates for the rest of Wheeler’s pitches to find success.

Check out another GIF from Friedman, showing the effect that mixing up location and velocity can have on an opposing hitter.

Below is an image from Zack Wheeler’s Pitch F/X page on Fangraphs, showing just how much more effective he has been since finally making his way back to the New York Mets this season.

This next graph shows the percentage of swings and misses Wheeler has got this season by pitch type, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net:

If that doesn’t impress you, I’m not sure what will. After all of the injuries and setbacks, and the guile and grit he showed while rehabbing, our guy is back. There is work to be done; he’s halfway towards his 30-start goal at exactly the halfway point of the 2018 Mets season. But the foundation for a rebirth has been laid.