May 11, 2016 by Brian Fogarty

While most of the 2016 NHL draft watchers focus on the top three presumptive picks Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi, another highly-regarded prospect seems to have lost some luster. Matthew Tkachuk--the big, left-hand-shooting left winger of the OHL's London Knights and a member of what is arguably junior hockey’s best line combination with Mitch Marner and Christian Dvorak--has diminished in the opinions of the analytics community in particular, due in large part to the high number of secondary assists that Tkachuk has recorded over the course of the season. There have been complaints that Tkachuk has been riding the wave of offense created by his linemates and that his statistics are padded by their success. The common retort to analysts who point out odd variations in a player’s statistics usually sounds something like, “You should try watching the games” and is often meant as a slight to numbers, saying that they cannot explain everything that happens on the ice. True, but what analytics does well is to help focus the game to the eyes of the watchers so that a player’s talent can be better understood.

Definitions: A/P Score: The “Age Production Score” is a standardized measure of a player’s production during his draft year set against his age at the draft. The Hockey Prophets Draft-Year Database currently contains nearly 2,000 players from the last ten or so years, and although the A/P score has some misses, it has been a solid indicator of future NHL success. The best score in the data belongs to Sidney Crosby, while the second and third best are Connor McDavid and Patrick Kane. Low scores are best. Primary and Secondary Points: Primary points are goals and first assists, and are generally considered to be the better indicator of a player’s contribution to a goal scored. Secondary points are simply that, the second assist recorded on a scored goal, and are generally considered as weaker than primary assists because they are one more play removed from the goal.

In the 2015-2016 season, Matt Tkachuk was credited with 30 goals, 36 primary assists and 41 secondary assists (77 assists total). Based on his December birthdate, Tkachuk’s raw A/P score of -3.14 would place him at 12th among all players in the database, just behind Nathan MacKinnon and just ahead of John Tavares. With his assists called into question because of the high proportion of secondary points, the key to a better evaluation of Tkachuk’s output lies in the understanding of just how valuable the secondary assists have been.

Below is a breakdown of Tkachuk’s scoring during the regular season:

Total Points Even Strength Pts Primary Secondary Special Team Pts Primary Secondary Tkachuk 107 58 33 25 43 29 14

At even strength, 57 percent of Tkachuk’s points total came from primary points (compared to 81% for Dvorak and 73 percent for Marner) and 67 percent of his special team points were primary (compared to Dvorak’s 59 percent and Marner’s 82 percent). On the surface, based on these numbers alone, Tkachuk does appear to have benefitted from his linemates scoring because nearly half of his even strength points were twice removed from the actual goal itself. However, those numbers do not really tell the story. Is Tkachuk dumping the puck off to Marner or Dvorak and then just watching while they make the offensive magic happen?

When asked in early March about what he thought of the idea that his production was a result of his linemates, Tkachuk said, “No, I think I can bring a lot to this team. I think I bring a lot of offense which helps the offensive structure of this team. [My linemates are] great players. We all bring something different to the table which makes us so successful.”

In the playoffs, Tkachuk has elevated his game even further, leading the London Knights to an incredible run through the OHL. Tkachuk’s performance thus far, on a points per game level, has him squarely in the top ten of all OHL playoff production rates since 2005. Of those top ten, Tkachuk is one of three players who scored at such a rate during their draft years. The other two were Patrick Kane and Connor McDavid.

Yet, skepticism persists as the running narrative around the 6’1, 195-pound winger. In order to further understand why Tkachuk’s secondary assists make up so much of his production, every goal in which Tkachuk recorded a secondary assist was reviewed and described (note that video for three of the 41 assists was unavailable):

Ten of the assists were plays that Tkachuk was not crucial to the play’s success. These include situations where Tkachuk made an initial pass, but the play moved away from him and the eventual goal did not really need his help.

Twenty assists came from plays in which Tkachuk made a good initial action to help generate the scoring chance, either by taking a hit to make a play the led to the goal, or working to get position and make a good pass, etc.

Six plays were clearly Tkachuk assists, and in fact three of them appear to be scoring errors in which Tkachuk could have received the primary assists. Another example would be strong play to the net with a shot that hit the post and was eventually banged into the goal.

Tkachuk’s secondary assists consistently derive from two types of plays, one in which Tkachuk was either taking the puck to the net and found a better option, usually to Marner who finds a wide-open Dvorak for an easy goal, or one in which Tkachuk made a strong possession play down low in the corners and behind the net, and managed to muscle the puck out the circles or the slot for a scoring chance, often resulting in a rebound buried by the third player. (Complete list of Tkachuk secondary assists)

Using the results of the review and assigning points based on a conservative reading of the game situations, Tkachuk’s A/P production can be reduced by 15 assists (ten from the plays described above that had little involvement, and giving partial credit for several of the others), and doing so results in an adjusted A/P score of -2.45 which would drop him from 12th overall among draft-year players to 35th overall, in the company of players such as Leon Draisaitl, Jakub Voracek and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. At his adjusted score, Tkachuk remains in the top three percent of all forwards in the Draft-Year Database.

So what makes Tkachuk special as a player? “I just think my competitiveness. I battle for every puck and I don’t lose a lot of battles, and my hockey iq is something that I take pride in.” Tkachuk’s drive and intelligence are apparent on every play. His ability to ward off defenders and maintain puck possession is remarkable, and it is that ability that led directly to a majority of his secondary assists. Tkachuk’s work in the corners and down low behind the net, or creating havoc at the top and around the crease, often generates top-grade chances for his teammates. To discount those plays as less than quality or overly reliant would be a terrible mistake. Even with a depleted assist level adjusted to compensate for conservative readings of his plays, Tkachuk’s draft-year production is among the elite. Discounting his points total drops him from Jack Eichel (a second overall pick) and Aleksander Barkov (second overall) down to Ryan-Nugent Hopkins (first overall) or Leon Draisaitl (third overall). Unfortunately for Tkachuk, his prime competition for the top spots in this year’s draft all played in Europe this season so same-league measurements do not exist, only equivalency ratings that can be problematic when looking at standout draft prospects.

So, perhaps the last word on Tkachuk’s qualities as a player that should propel him into talk of the top three, should come from the player himself, when asked what it was in his game that should have teams thinking about taking him at the top spots of the draft: “I think my hockey iq is higher. I think that it’s not about right now, it’s about what you’re going to do in a couple of years. So, it depends on whatever a team thinks, but I think that it’s not about going up against those players, it’s just about getting better every day.” Asked if there was any advice his father (former NHLer Keith Tkachuk) gave him, Tkachuk answered quickly. “Every day,” Tkachuk replied, “you compete and be a good teammate.”

There is no doubt that the top two players for the 2016 NHL Draft are Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine, but the Columbus Blue Jackets would be doing themselves a tremendous disservice if they are not giving serious consideration to Matt Tkachuk at third overall. He is, pure and true, an NHL player waiting for the opportunity. He is a future star in the league, and one who can play any roll while having the skills to become a top-end scorer. It is time to put the secondary scoring questions to rest. Tkachuk rides no coattails, and is a player capable and willing to do all the heavy lifting to help his team win.