As Bill Parcells would say, "you are what your record says you are." That seems to be how the pundits operate, but how far off are they when it comes to the stats?

I know quite a few people who have been saying, "the Raiders are getting better, they're just a few years off from being a good team." Some have even said it as recently as this year. Is this finally the year the Raiders return to respectability?

By all indications: yes, yes it is.

Notable Quotes

Who's to blame for the Chargers' 2-6 start? It's not Philip Rivers, who has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes in the six losses. Try the defense, the only unit to allow 24-plus points in every game this season. - ESPN

The Chargers did their best not to injure themselves on the flight home, there were no survivors. - Reddit

When you can’t run the football (30th in yards per carry) or stop the run (32nd in yards per carry allowed), it’s almost impossible to consistently win football games - Fox Sports

Division Averages

Division Week 8 Average Week 9 Average Difference AFC East 10.022 12.239 -2.217 NFC West 14.435 13.773 0.662 NFC South 14.880 14.091 0.789 AFC West 16.783 14.227 2.556 AFC North 15.565 15.170 0.395 NFC North 17.391 18.034 -0.643 NFC East 16.620 18.239 -1.619 AFC South 26.304 26.227 0.077

Stock Rising

Team Week 8 Average Week 9 Average Difference KC 20.973 16.308 4.665 OAK 17.364 13.275 4.089 TB 28.250 24.858 3.392 HOU 28.591 25.517 3.074 DEN 6.280 3.233 3.047

Stock Falling

Team Week 8 Average Week 9 Average Difference MIA 14.811 19.450 -4.639 NYJ 7.663 11.250 -3.587 NYG 13.250 16.592 -3.342 SF 26.788 29.592 -2.804 ATL 8.330 10.708 -2.378

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 Bengals 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 2.500 0.250 Broncos 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 2 2.667 2.166 Panthers 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 3.917 0.083 Packers 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 5.250 -2.833 Cardinals 6 5 6 6 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5.917 1.000 Vikings 11 7 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 7.750 1.250 Falcons 7 10 7 10 12 11 7 7 8 7 6 9 8.417 -1.667 Seahawks 8 9 9 7 9 10 14 9 10 9 11 8 9.417 2.333 Rams 10 8 10 9 7 8 13 12 9 12 14 10 10.167 2.666 Raiders 9 12 11 13 10 9 10 11 11 13 9 11 10.750 4.250 Steelers 13 11 17 12 14 13 9 10 13 10 10 14 12.167 -1.334 Jets 12 14 12 11 11 12 11 14 12 11 18 12 12.500 -4.083 Saints 15 13 14 15 13 14 17 13 14 15 13 13 14.083 2.750 Giants 14 15 15 16 15 17 15 15 15 14 21 15 15.583 -3.083 Eagles 18 20 19 14 17 16 12 17 16 16 12 16 16.083 -0.916 Dolphins 17 16 13 23 18 15 18 16 19 18 20 17 17.500 -3.333 Bills 16 21 20 17 21 20 16 18 17 17 15 19 18.083 0.334 Colts 22 22 18 18 20 23 20 19 20 19 24 18 20.250 -1.417 Redskins 24 18 21 20 16 19 19 20 21 20 26 21 20.417 0.166 Chiefs 20 19 22 28 19 22 23 22 18 21 17 20 20.917 3.666 Buccaneers 21 23 26 21 25 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 22.417 4.083 Cowboys 26 17 24 25 23 18 22 23 28 23 19 22 22.500 -1.833 Ravens 27 26 27 19 22 24 27 24 26 25 16 24 23.917 4.333 Browns 23 24 29 26 24 28 24 28 23 27 25 27 25.667 -2.167 Chargers 19 28 23 24 28 29 28 26 24 24 30 25 25.667 -3.584 Bears 28 25 16 27 26 27 25 25 29 26 28 28 25.833 -1.333 Texans 25 27 25 29 27 25 30 27 25 28 22 26 26.333 3.667 Jaguars 29 30 30 22 29 26 29 29 27 29 27 29 28.000 -0.250 49ers 31 31 28 32 30 31 26 30 30 30 32 30 30.083 -3.416 Titans 32 29 32 30 31 30 31 31 31 31 29 32 30.750 -1.083 Lions 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 31.500 -0.667

Observations:

Broncos made a statement by beating the Packers on Sunday, and the rankings reward them.

Top 3 teams are AFC teams. The next 7 teams are all NFC teams.

By this list, the Raiders are the 4th-best team in the AFC. And in fact, if the season ended today, the Raiders would be the 5th-seed in the AFC, playing at the 3-5 Colts.

The bottom half of the league has a 10:6 split between AFC and NFC. So when the season started, it seemed the AFC would assert dominance again, but that has since faded.

Poor Detroit, so much optimism to start the season.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit PFF AP STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 Bengals 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 0.500 -0.095 Broncos 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 2 0.624 0.251 Panthers 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 0.640 0.063 Lions 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 0.646 -0.497 Packers 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 0.722 0.082 Cardinals 6 5 6 6 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 0.759 -0.195 Titans 32 29 32 30 31 30 31 31 31 31 29 32 1.010 -1.615 Vikings 11 7 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 1.164 -0.250 Saints 15 13 14 15 13 14 17 13 14 15 13 13 1.187 -0.847 Raiders 9 12 11 13 10 9 10 11 11 13 9 11 1.362 -0.638 Buccaneers 21 23 26 21 25 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 1.605 -0.002 49ers 31 31 28 32 30 31 26 30 30 30 32 30 1.605 -0.324 Seahawks 8 9 9 7 9 10 14 9 10 9 11 8 1.706 0.067 Giants 14 15 15 16 15 17 15 15 15 14 21 15 1.801 0.417 Falcons 7 10 7 10 12 11 7 7 8 7 6 9 1.847 1.018 Jets 12 14 12 11 11 12 11 14 12 11 18 12 1.937 0.046 Colts 22 22 18 18 20 23 20 19 20 19 24 18 1.963 0.391 Bills 16 21 20 17 21 20 16 18 17 17 15 19 1.977 -0.239 Browns 23 24 29 26 24 28 24 28 23 27 25 27 2.014 0.035 Texans 25 27 25 29 27 25 30 27 25 28 22 26 2.055 0.583 Rams 10 8 10 9 7 8 13 12 9 12 14 10 2.075 -0.117 Jaguars 29 30 30 22 29 26 29 29 27 29 27 29 2.160 -0.294 Steelers 13 11 17 12 14 13 9 10 13 10 10 14 2.192 -0.511 Eagles 18 20 19 14 17 16 12 17 16 16 12 16 2.361 0.022 Dolphins 17 16 13 23 18 15 18 16 19 18 20 17 2.432 -0.112 Redskins 24 18 21 20 16 19 19 20 21 20 26 21 2.499 -0.313 Chiefs 20 19 22 28 19 22 23 22 18 21 17 20 2.753 0.221 Chargers 19 28 23 24 28 29 28 26 24 24 30 25 2.981 -0.004 Cowboys 26 17 24 25 23 18 22 23 28 23 19 22 3.096 0.962 Bears 28 25 16 27 26 27 25 25 29 26 28 28 3.236 -0.192 Ravens 27 26 27 19 22 24 27 24 26 25 16 24 3.278 0.964

Observations:

16 teams saw their deviation go down, 15 went up, 1 stayed the same.

Ravens, Bears, Cowboys, Chargers and Chiefs are all difficult to for the pundits to pin down

The NFC is pretty much settled with the top half of the league in consistency enjoying an 11:5 NFC:AFC split.

Objective Average

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey 538 FPI Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.200 0.164 Bengals 3 5 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 3 2.900 1.555 Broncos 6 2 2 2 5 4 6 3 2 6 3.800 3.927 Cardinals 2 6 5 9 3 3 2 6 7 2 4.500 0.773 Packers 4 3 4 4 7 7 5 5 4 5 4.800 -1.527 Panthers 7 10 7 6 6 8 7 4 6 10 7.100 -0.554 Steelers 10 7 8 5 8 5 11 9 8 7 7.800 0.109 Seahawks 9 4 6 10 12 10 9 7 5 8 8.000 0.909 Jets 5 12 11 21 2 6 4 10 20 9 10.000 -3.091 Eagles 12 9 9 14 14 9 16 14 10 4 11.100 -1.827 Chiefs 11 8 10 16 15 12 8 15 11 11 11.700 5.664 Rams 13 13 14 7 11 11 14 12 17 17 12.900 3.282 Falcons 17 19 13 8 9 14 13 11 12 14 13.000 -3.091 Vikings 27 11 12 12 13 17 15 8 9 19 14.300 -0.027 Raiders 8 23 18 17 10 13 10 13 22 24 15.800 3.927 Bills 14 17 17 19 17 16 12 18 19 13 16.200 -1.927 Giants 15 21 15 18 20 18 17 17 13 22 17.600 -3.600 Saints 19 22 21 11 19 19 18 16 15 20 18.000 1.000 Ravens 16 14 16 29 24 15 21 19 18 16 18.800 1.746 Cowboys 26 18 19 13 22 20 24 20 14 15 19.100 -0.009 Colts 21 15 22 22 27 25 28 21 16 12 20.900 -0.809 Dolphins 20 16 20 26 28 23 20 22 21 18 21.400 -5.945 Chargers 23 20 23 20 18 22 23 24 25 21 21.900 1.100 Redskins 18 27 24 28 16 21 22 23 28 25 23.200 -1.745 Texans 30 24 25 25 21 26 25 25 23 23 24.700 2.482 Bears 29 28 27 15 25 27 26 26 29 31 26.300 1.155 Browns 22 25 26 27 30 24 29 29 30 27 26.900 -0.900 Buccaneers 25 30 30 31 26 28 19 27 27 30 27.300 2.700 Lions 31 26 28 23 31 32 32 31 26 29 28.900 -1.264 Titans 28 31 32 30 23 29 27 32 32 26 29.000 -2.273 49ers 32 29 29 24 32 30 31 28 24 32 29.100 -2.191 Jaguars 24 32 31 32 29 31 30 30 31 28 29.800 0.291

Observations:

Without BeatGraphs, the Patriots would be a consensus #1.

Aikman for the last few weeks had the Jets at the top of the list, that finally ends this week.

DVOA quite likes the Raiders, FPI doesn't.

538 quite likes the Vikings, DVOA does not.

Chargers lost, but their overall objective rating goes up? Ravens went up slightly more, so apparently both teams played well.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.600 -0.171 Bengals 3 5 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 3 1.044 -0.515 Packers 4 3 4 4 7 7 5 5 4 5 1.249 -0.614 Broncos 6 2 2 2 5 4 6 3 2 6 1.721 -2.733 Panthers 7 10 7 6 6 8 7 4 6 10 1.758 -0.513 Steelers 10 7 8 5 8 5 11 9 8 7 1.833 0.328 Chargers 23 20 23 20 18 22 23 24 25 21 2.022 -0.428 Texans 30 24 25 25 21 26 25 25 23 23 2.238 -0.384 Jaguars 24 32 31 32 29 31 30 30 31 28 2.272 0.651 Bills 14 17 17 19 17 16 12 18 19 13 2.315 -1.330 Cardinals 2 6 5 9 3 3 2 6 7 2 2.335 -1.528 Seahawks 9 4 6 10 12 10 9 7 5 8 2.366 -1.482 Browns 22 25 26 27 30 24 29 29 30 27 2.548 -0.149 Chiefs 11 8 10 16 15 12 8 15 11 11 2.685 -1.669 Giants 15 21 15 18 20 18 17 17 13 22 2.691 -1.443 Rams 13 13 14 7 11 11 14 12 17 17 2.809 -0.319 Titans 28 31 32 30 23 29 27 32 32 26 2.864 -1.886 49ers 32 29 29 24 32 30 31 28 24 32 2.879 -0.776 Lions 31 26 28 23 31 32 32 31 26 29 2.914 0.242 Saints 19 22 21 11 19 19 18 16 15 20 3.066 1.066 Falcons 17 19 13 8 9 14 13 11 12 14 3.162 -1.196 Buccaneers 25 30 30 31 26 28 19 27 27 30 3.348 1.092 Dolphins 20 16 20 26 28 23 20 22 21 18 3.382 0.124 Eagles 12 9 9 14 14 9 16 14 10 4 3.390 0.342 Redskins 18 27 24 28 16 21 22 23 28 25 3.868 -1.166 Cowboys 26 18 19 13 22 20 24 20 14 15 4.036 1.258 Bears 29 28 27 15 25 27 26 26 29 31 4.124 1.553 Ravens 16 14 16 29 24 15 21 19 18 16 4.445 -0.272 Colts 21 15 22 22 27 25 28 21 16 12 4.949 0.005 Vikings 27 11 12 12 13 17 15 8 9 19 5.311 0.087 Raiders 8 23 18 17 10 13 10 13 22 24 5.546 0.168 Jets 5 12 11 21 2 6 4 10 20 9 6.066 2.487

Observations:

Wow that's quite a discrepancy for among the ratings for the Jets, Raiders, and Vikings.

19 of 32 teams saw their consistency improve this week.

So on the subjective list, 11 of the top 16 most consistently-ranked teams were in the NFC. On the objective list, 10 of the top 16 most consistently-ranked teams are AFC teams. So while the pundits can't pin down the AFC, the stats aren't having many issues.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Patriots 1.000 1.200 1.100 0.082 Bengals 2.500 2.900 2.700 0.902 Broncos 2.667 3.800 3.233 3.047 Packers 5.250 4.800 5.025 -2.180 Cardinals 5.917 4.500 5.208 0.887 Panthers 3.917 7.100 5.508 -0.235 Seahawks 9.417 8.000 8.708 1.622 Steelers 12.167 7.800 9.983 -0.612 Falcons 8.417 13.000 10.708 -2.378 Vikings 7.750 14.300 11.025 0.611 Jets 12.500 10.000 11.250 -3.587 Rams 10.167 12.900 11.533 2.975 Raiders 10.750 15.800 13.275 4.089 Eagles 16.083 11.100 13.592 -1.372 Saints 14.083 18.000 16.042 1.875 Chiefs 20.917 11.700 16.308 4.665 Giants 15.583 17.600 16.592 -3.342 Bills 18.083 16.200 17.142 -0.797 Dolphins 17.500 21.400 19.450 -4.639 Colts 20.250 20.900 20.575 -1.113 Cowboys 22.500 19.100 20.800 -0.921 Ravens 23.917 18.800 21.358 3.040 Redskins 20.417 23.200 21.808 -0.789 Chargers 25.667 21.900 23.783 -1.241 Buccaneers 22.417 27.300 24.858 3.392 Texans 26.333 24.700 25.517 3.074 Bears 25.833 26.300 26.067 -0.090 Browns 25.667 26.900 26.283 -1.533 Jaguars 28.000 29.800 28.900 0.020 49ers 30.083 29.100 29.592 -2.804 Titans 30.750 29.000 29.875 -1.678 Lions 31.500 28.900 30.200 -0.965

Observations:

Patriots playing well (duh)

3 of the top 12 teams come from the NFC West.

The Dolphins surge has come to a halt.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1.000 1.200 0.417 -0.147 Bengals 2.500 2.900 0.819 -0.620 Packers 5.250 4.800 1.022 -0.412 Broncos 2.667 3.800 1.370 -2.043 Cardinals 5.917 4.500 1.814 -1.065 Panthers 3.917 7.100 2.035 -0.028 Seahawks 9.417 8.000 2.152 -1.088 Titans 30.750 29.000 2.246 -1.821 Texans 26.333 24.700 2.290 -0.240 49ers 30.083 29.100 2.327 -0.562 Bills 18.083 16.200 2.334 -1.300 Browns 25.667 26.900 2.354 -0.307 Jaguars 28.000 29.800 2.386 -0.015 Lions 31.500 28.900 2.401 -0.177 Giants 15.583 17.600 2.463 -0.657 Rams 10.167 12.900 2.791 -0.369 Saints 14.083 18.000 2.974 0.684 Steelers 12.167 7.800 2.979 0.328 Chargers 25.667 21.900 3.198 0.418 Falcons 8.417 13.000 3.408 -0.046 Redskins 20.417 23.200 3.482 -0.572 Dolphins 17.500 21.400 3.493 0.515 Buccaneers 22.417 27.300 3.523 0.908 Colts 20.250 20.900 3.652 -0.005 Bears 25.833 26.300 3.674 0.287 Eagles 16.083 11.100 3.798 -0.198 Cowboys 22.500 19.100 3.937 1.351 Jets 12.500 10.000 4.508 1.582 Raiders 10.750 15.800 4.617 -0.020 Ravens 23.917 18.800 4.619 -0.696 Vikings 7.750 14.300 4.919 0.333 Chiefs 20.917 11.700 5.336 0.294





Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Vikings 7.750 14.300 6.550 1.277 Raiders 10.750 15.800 5.050 0.323 Buccaneers 22.417 27.300 4.883 1.383 Falcons 8.417 13.000 4.583 1.424 Saints 14.083 18.000 3.917 1.750 Dolphins 17.500 21.400 3.900 2.612 Panthers 3.917 7.100 3.183 0.637 Redskins 20.417 23.200 2.783 1.912 Rams 10.167 12.900 2.733 -0.616 Giants 15.583 17.600 2.017 0.517 Jaguars 28.000 29.800 1.800 -0.541 Browns 25.667 26.900 1.233 -1.267 Broncos 2.667 3.800 1.133 -1.761 Colts 20.250 20.900 0.650 -0.608 Bears 25.833 26.300 0.467 -2.488 Bengals 2.500 2.900 0.400 -1.305 Patriots 1.000 1.200 0.200 -0.164 Packers 5.250 4.800 -0.450 -1.306 49ers 30.083 29.100 -0.983 -1.225 Seahawks 9.417 8.000 -1.417 1.424 Cardinals 5.917 4.500 -1.417 0.227 Texans 26.333 24.700 -1.633 1.185 Titans 30.750 29.000 -1.750 1.189 Bills 18.083 16.200 -1.883 2.261 Jets 12.500 10.000 -2.500 -0.992 Lions 31.500 28.900 -2.600 0.597 Cowboys 22.500 19.100 -3.400 -1.824 Chargers 25.667 21.900 -3.767 -4.684 Steelers 12.167 7.800 -4.367 -1.443 Eagles 16.083 11.100 -4.983 0.911 Ravens 23.917 18.800 -5.117 2.588 Chiefs 20.917 11.700 -9.217 -1.997

Observations:

So yeah, how about those Vikings. They seem impressive, don't they? Ehhh maybe they've just been beating up on lesser opponents?

The subjective rankers seem to like the Raiders more than the stats back them up. Is it a case of low expectations to start the season holding them up because they have a winning record now and so that's better than most expected?

As I was saying above about the subjective rankings keying in on the NFC? 8 of the 10 most "over-ranked" teams are NFC teams. Conversely, 8 of the 11 most "under-ranked" teams are AFC teams.

Whether pundits just don't believe in the Chiefs without Jamaal Charles, or they're playing more impressively than anyone realizes, the Chiefs are way better than they're getting credit for.

I was pointing out last week that the Ravens were much better than their record indicated and that anyone wanted to give them credit. So the loss in Baltimore was no big surprise to me.

Sources