09:04: Why Theresa May is facing a Brexiteer mutiny entirely of her own making

Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg Reuters / Simon Dawson

There were farcical scenes in parliament last night after Theresa May addressed colleagues at the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs, and the prime minister found herself facing a mutiny entirely of her own making.

The 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs meets regularly but it is at its fullest and rowdiest on occasions like last night where the prime minister attends to address colleagues.

The main topic of discussion was a series of amendments that MPs have tabled to the prime minister's Brexit motion this evening which will allow MPs to vote on alternative outcomes for Brexit.

One amendment, tabled 1922 Committee Chairman Graham Brady — who voted against the prime minister's deal — calls on the government to replace the Irish backstop measure in the Withdrawal Agreement. That idea is popular with many Tory MPs who fervently oppose the backstop.

But the EU has repeatedly made clear that it would never consider removing the backstop from the Brexit deal, and many moderate MPs consider the amendment an indulgent fantasy.

Arriving at the 1922, Jacob Rees-Mogg announced that he and his colleagues in the hardline European Research Group of MPs were in "no mood to support" the Brady amendment amid fears it was too vague.

But Theresa May then told MPs in the 1922 that she would be whipping MPs to support the amendment. One Tory MP told Business Insider that she said she wanted to demonstrate that she had a "serious chance" of "demonstrating" to Brussels that the backstop wouldn't be included as part of the withdrawal agreement.

When arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson challenged the prime minister on how the vaguely worded Brady amendment would help May secure substantive change on the backstop, she told him: "We won’t know unless you support it, Boris!" to loud cheers.

But the prime minister refused to discuss the actual substance of her proposals in any more detail, according to MPs in the room.

Negotiators in the EU believe that May is reluctant to discuss alternative proposals because they don't exist, and point out that the backstop was shaped by UK negotiators in the first place.

It sets up a very bizarre situation: The government is planning to whip Tory MPs to vote for a rebel amendment to its own motion tomorrow.

But Brexiteer MPs plan to vote against the amendment, which means the government's plan to make MPs vote for a rebel amendment to its own motion is likely to fail.

Emerging from the meeting said: "I would hope the ERG, when they look at this and actually look through the detail of what this gives the PM tomorrow, see it is about giving a message to Europe about what can go through Parliament in terms of dealing with the backstop issue and why that matters."

First things first: House of Commons John Bercow may not even select the amendment. If it is selected, the ERG will be heavily pressured to support it. Whether they crack will be an interesting test.

If it is successful, Theresa May appears to think she will have an ace in her hand when she travels to Brussels, proving to them that there is a Commons majority for a deal without the backstop.

In reality, the EU — frustrated by a complete lack of alternative suggestions to the backstop — is likely to offer her plan a resounding rejection.

"We’re not going to reopen the Agreement," said the EU's deputy chief Brexit negotiator in Brussels yesterday.

"The result of the negotiation has been very much shaped by the UK negotiators, much more than they actually get credit for."

"This is a bit like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory."