Take a wary look at British Columbia; a shaky NDP government, supported by three Greens, fiercely hostile to the Trans Mountain pipeline.

Now, imagine the same dynamic in Ottawa after the fall federal election.

Distroscale

Try not to pass out.

It’s by no means unthinkable that the Liberals will be reduced to a minority. To stay in power, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would have to rely on backing from the NDP.

That’s the traditional view, anyway. But if any party is poised for a breakout, it’s the Greens, who will never be persuaded to compromise on pipelines or almost any matter involving Alberta’s energy industry.

In B.C., the provincial Greens have turned Premier John Horgan’s NDP from sniffs of pipeline disapproval to outright enmity.

The federal Liberals have long shown such flexibility in the interests of power. Justin Trudeau’s dad, Pierre, was very good at it during the Liberal minority of 1972-74.

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A Green wave sounds crazy from any Alberta perch. In the April provincial election, Green candidates got 0.4 per cent of the vote.

But Elizabeth May’s federal party won the May 6 byelection in Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding on Vancouver Island.

It wasn’t even close. The Green candidate got 37 per cent of the vote, nearly 15 points ahead of both the Conservative and NDP contestants.

The Liberals scored 11 per cent. Trudeau is no more popular in certain B.C. quarters than he is in Alberta — which is part of the point.

On April 23, the Greens captured eight seats in the Prince Edward Island election . They now hold the hammer over a minority Progressive Conservative government.

These victories nudge the Greens from the fringes to growing respectability. Many young progressives in the big cities, usually NDP or Liberal supporters, are attracted to Green policies.

Nationally, Nanos weekly tracking shows Conservatives at 35 per cent; Liberals, 30; NDP, 15; and the Greens edging up at 11 per cent.

The obvious panic at this point is among New Democrats afraid of losing their base to the Greens.

After the Green win on the Island, B.C. federal NDP candidate Svend Robinson (yes, he’s back) tweeted:

“We must as a party take a clear stand opposing fracking and all new oil and gas infrastructure including (sic) LNG, and Site C …”

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, after voicing earlier support for B.C.’s big LNG plans, adjusted very quickly.

“I do not support fracking. I do not believe that is the future for Canada … I’ll also go beyond that, saying I don’t believe any energy source that’s carbon-based is the future for Canada.”

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They’re not even bothering to talk about Trans Mountain. That’s just settled policy. They will never accept it.

It’s increasingly clear that if the Trudeau Liberals are trimmed to minority size, they would be supported by two opposition parties competing in hostility to Alberta’s main industry.

Would the Liberals bend to please those parties? There’s no doubt about it.

Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt cites the parallel example of Pierre Trudeau, who rode to power in 1968 on a wave of Trudeaumania, much like the 2015 fervor over Justin.

By 1972, Pierre Trudeau had “whittled away” his own support, in Bratt’s words. He managed to beat the Progressive Conservatives by only two ridings.

For the next two years, Pierre Trudeau depended on NDP support, which led, among other things, to the creation of Petro-Canada, initially a state-owned company widely despised in Alberta.

Justin Trudeau now faces a choice as the 2019 election approaches. He can lean hard to green, hoping to win over NDP and Green voters, or hold to his centrist line that environmental activism and industry health are compatible.

Bratt says: “But that centrist approach has damaged him among environmental groups and damaged him among supporters of oil and gas. When he goes on the road, he’s met by competing protests … he hasn’t satisfied anyone.”

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The obvious shift for Trudeau, as always for the Liberals, is toward the centre-left — certainly not to the conservative side, where he would run smack into Andrew Scheer.

The Conservative leader himself could render this whole scenario null and void by winning. But he would have to get a clear majority. Polls don’t show that yet.

There’s a dawning prospect that is very odd to imagine: Sometime in November or December, after the federal election is done, Albertans find themselves wishing the first Justin Trudeau government was back.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.