Tom Curran is the frontrunner to replace Craig Overton in the England team and make his Test debut at a sold-out Melbourne Cricket Ground on Boxing Day.

Curran was not part of the original Ashes squad – nor even first reserve when it was named in September – but after Overton was diagnosed with a cracked rib during the defeat in Perth, the 22-year-old Surrey right-armer is being strongly considered for the fourth Test.

England are under pressure to inject fresh blood into the side after surrendering the Ashes at the Waca but their options are limited. Australia’s dominance of the tail means Overton’s replacement needs to be able to hold a bat, even if 20 wickets are yet to materialise for England during their three defeats.

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Jake Ball played in the opening Test in Brisbane but picked up one for 115 and was bombed by the fast bowlers, leaving the more competent Mark Wood as the other seam alternative with Curran. But the Durham quick is not officially part of the squad – he stayed on after Lions duty to prepare for the one-dayers – and there remain lingering doubts over his ability to get through five days.

A strong showing in training over the weekend by Wood could force a change of plan while Mason Crane is another option. Moeen Ali’s struggles with the ball certainly bring the leg-spinner into the mix but this would mean playing only three seamers or the prospect of pushing Chris Woakes up to No7 and further weaken an already crepe-paper batting lineup.

Curran came into the squad early in the tour after Steven Finn – the replacement for the suspended Ben Stokes – suffered torn knee cartilage. He picked up five wickets in the two-day match against a Cricket Australia XI before the third Test and scored an unbeaten 77. Ball went wicketless, though Wood’s pace in taking two wickets was eye-catching.

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Crane’s hopes of making the XI will depend on the drop-in pitch at the MCG, and with Stuart Broad having gone wicketless in Perth, England may even consider two bowling changes. They will get a first look at the surface when they resume training on Saturday and, should it lend itself to spin, the 20-year-old Hampshire cricketer believes he is ready to make the step up.

“I’ve got to prepare as if I’m going to play,” said Crane. “It’s been tough, 3-0 down is not the place you want to be but at the same time it’s been great. I’ve learned a lot and this is as tough as it ever gets, so I can definitely use this experience.”

On what he had learned Crane said: “The verbals going on in this series, I’ve never seen the like before. If a bowler wants a drink on the far side of the ground, we’re drawing straws. But that’s to be expected. I’m not sure much of it can be repeated. It’s not for families. You just laugh it off. There’s not much else you can do.”

Crane’s ascent to the Test team would cap a remarkable story, coming 12 months after he turned out for New South Wales in the Sheffield Shield following an impressive stint in Sydney grade cricket. He was frozen out of his county side at the start of the English summer, prompting the national selector, James Whitaker, to vent his frustration publicly.