The danger for LAB is that its equivocation over Brexit could be alienating its GE2017 tactical voters

LAB drops to a its lowest share this parliament

There’s a new YouGov poll out this morning that has LAB down at 37% which equals its lowest share in any public poll since GE2017. That this should happen while the Tories are in almost total internal war over the Brexit negotiations might seem surprising.

This is just one poll but the overall trend is very clear – we’ve moved from a situation when there were almost solid Labour leads to one where the blue team is on top.

Maybe a reason that this is happening is that Corbyn’s LAB is finding it hard retaining the tactical anti Brexit voters of June 8th last year.

For one of the key dynamics of a GE2017 was that in spite of its ambivalent approach to Brexit it was still able to attract the anti-Brexit tactical vote. There’s a good analysis here.

In the large sample Ashcroft poll taken in June 2017 8% of LAB voters said Brexit was the main reason why they’d voted for Corbyn’s party. That potentially is a large slab of voters who could move away from the party.

On a personal note I was one of those tactical voters in a tight marginal and helped LAB make one of its gains from the Tories. I can’t see myself supporting a Corbyn-led party next time.

Today’s YouGov has 71% of LAB voters saying they believe that Brexit was wrong with just 21% saying it was right.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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