For some time now, I’ve been thinking about @blindestspot‘s meta about Sansa’s potential Winds of Winter storyline. I already reblogged it with a small addition of my own, but I’ve been having more and more thoughts on it since (mostly anxiety-ridden ones in which I imagine worse and worse outcomes), so I’ve decided to put them in a more organized form. I have my own additions to … well, add.

This is all speculation on Sansa’s future arc in the books, and I’m not particularly committed to all of it–I’m more interested in throwing out ideas. The question that blindestspot asks (“What if Season Six actually is Sansa’s TWOW storyline?”) is not the question I’m after here–this isn’t about the show at all–but the relevant part, the major section of the meta, is an analysis of Sansa’s released TWOW chapter and what it might mean for her future. It’s one that I found pretty compelling for a number of reasons, and would like to add to and qualify with my own thoughts.



The popular speculation on Sansa’s storyline in the Vale, based on that TWOW chapter, is quite positive. As blindestspot puts it:

People usually think that Sansa’s Vale plot will stretch quite some time before joining the main plots and that it might involve Aegon as a marriage prospect. People expect it to be Sansa’s training montage to become LF 2.0.

As an example, @poorquentyn​ went further in his Reddit AMA, speculating thus about Sansa’s storyline in the Vale:

I think Sansa is the political heir to the series, from her fall-into-knowledge in AGOT to her learning from Cersei’s bad example to her apprenticeship in the Vale; it all comes together in her released TWOW chapter, in which she basically conquers a blueblood social circle while posing a bastard. (Quite a feat.)

blindestspot’s argument, though, is that, while the released chapter seems positive, a closer look suggests otherwise:

I do think that the Vale plot is very much set up to be everything but smooth sailing. That TWOW chapter looks so harmless with its dancing and lemon cakes and telling Sweetrobin stories but if you really pay attention it is somewhat foreboding.

There are a couple of main points of her analysis that I want to summarize here and add to:

1. “Alayne”/Sansa is not going to marry Harry. We already know this. As blindestspot points out, she is already legally married, and she recalls this herself, explicitly, when thinking about the issue–a sure meta signpost that things are not going to work out on this front. Furthermore, it’s a plan that has been revealed in advance, and that spells doom, just like we knew that Varys’s plans for Aegon would not be borne out when he summarized them so triumphantly for Tyrion.

A couple of supporting points I would add here:

1a. LF says he is waiting for Cersei to finally kill Tyrion so that he can marry off Sansa. As readers, I think we all know Tyrion is going to live for a while yet. It also shows that he’s not considering marrying her off illegitimately (while she’s still married to Tyrion), but is waiting for everything to be totally aboveboard and legal. So, the plan’s not going to happen in this form. Of course, it may well change. But he wants Sansa’s child to be the legitimate heir to both the Vale and the North, and any possible stink of illegitimacy (i.e., her remarrying before having an official annulment or being widowed) would destroy that. Even if her marriage to Tyrion wasn’t consummated, it is still legally in force.



1b. LF’s plans have, thus far, been revealed in hindsight–namely his “rescue” of Sansa from King’s Landing, which was unknown until it was already a fait accompli. It is part of what makes him an impressive character. As a result, I find it doubtful that this one will succeed having been laid out already. Of course, we know that he is capable of turning on a dime when plots fail, as they sometimes do–after all, the Harry plot itself only comes after he tries to persuade the small council to let him marry Sansa. Which brings me to …

1c. LF has a major blind spot that is going to bite him (and Sansa) on the ass in this marriage plot. As blindestspot notes:

[LF] considers himself very important and he is very much attracted to Sansa which leads him to believe that everyone else is similarly attracted to her and considers him as important as he himself does. […] Littlefinger tells her that she should seduce Harry. He gives her very generic advice on how to do it, because in his own attraction to her, he cannot quite imagine that someone would not want to be seduced by Sansa. He doesn’t listen to Sansa at all when she tells him that Harry insulted her to her face or considers of the implication of that. That doing so is both an insult to her as an attractive person (Harry is not impressed enough by her beauty to even try to even make a neutral impression.) as well as to Littlefinger’s power and influence. Harry is not impressed by LF or Alayne, which LF doesn’t acknowledge at all in his advice on how to seduce him.

Harry is, as blindestspot observes, “an arrogant, class-conscious douchebag” who believes himself to be the future Lord of the Vale, one of the great lords of Westeros. He’s already added the Arryn sigil to his coat of arms. And LF wants him to marry the bastard daughter of a quite rich, but very minor, lord–one who won’t matter at all and probably won’t even have a position when Harry inherits the Vale, as he believes he will (as Sweetrobin informed us so helpfully). After all, LF is the Lord Protector because Sweetrobin is so young; Harry is just about grown, and demonstrably unimpressed by LF.



Why would LF be so stupid? How can a guy whose own potential marriage was prevented by being the legitimate son of a very minor lord not realize that this is never going to happen?

This is his blind spot. His drive, his actions–every plan and every scheme–are about raising himself up so he can be someone Cat Tully could conceivably marry (or, better yet, to be her better so that she can’t refuse him). It haunts him. It’s echoed in all of his actions. To this end, he’s made himself wealthy and powerful, slowly working his way up that ladder-in-chaos. He has to believe in the possibility that it could happen, or else his entire being (which it is at this point) falls apart.

And we’ve seen it already. He tried to marry Sansa and was turned away still, years and years after “losing” Cat to Brandon, after acquiring so much power and wealth, after obtaining a privileged position on the King’s small council. And his response is not to see the problem more clearly (to conclude, for example, that marriage across large class boundaries is difficult or impossible, and should not keep figuring into his plans) but to work harder, climb higher, keep trying. Yes, you’d think he would be smarter, but he cannot see this issue clearly. It is so psychologically central to him.

I don’t think Cersei drops that little nugget of knowledge about Petyr proposing that he marry Sansa for nothing; it has to tell us something about him, or why include it?



So he does not take Sansa’s concerns seriously, and gives her quite generic advice inappropriate for her station, and I suspect that will rebound on her. She is the bastard daughter of a rich minor lord trying to marry the class-conscious, haughty future Lord of the Vale, who is an extreme douchebag and not just to Sansa (note how he talks about his mistresses, who are of comparable station to “Alayne”–he doesn’t find them worth marrying), and she spends half the chapter negging him and acting like his better.

1d. As blindestspot points out, Harry himself does not seem attracted to Alayne–not even by the end of the chapter. A choice excerpt from their first meeting:

Harry was staring at her. He knows who I am, she realized, and he does not seem pleased to see me. [long conversation between everyone else follows, seriously, it’s longer than you think] Ser Harrold looked down at [Alayne] coldly. “Why should it please me to be escorted anywhere by Littlefinger’s bastard?”



I find it interesting that Harry had this huge space in order to process his irritation at LF’s plans and recover from his first response in order to be polite–

particularly if he found Sansa attractive

. I mean, even the douchebaggiest of bros can rein in their worst tendencies initially to have a civil conversation with a hot chick if they want to get laid, right? Not Harry, apparently. He’s not just an asshole–he’s very touchy about his pride and station. He spends the whole conversation stewing and then publicly humiliates her.

By the end of the chapter:

Alayne raised her head. “More beautiful than me?” Ser Harrold studied her face. “You are comely enough, I grant you. …

HE HAS TO STOP AND CHECK. You guys. Also, the “I grant you” is coming off gratingly condescending here, like in a “sure, I guess” kind of way.



Well, what about her personality? Is he charmed by her?

Sansa seems to think so, but I’m not so sure. Per blindestspot:

So when he tells Sansa that: “No one told me you were clever.” I started to get really worried. It’s not actually his first reaction to her jousting remark. It is something he says and thinks is funny after he had a bit of time to think through it. And it is not necessarily a compliment. Because he doesn’t actually call her clever. In fact, this could be easily the sort of back-handed compliment that Sansa herself failed at: No one told him she was clever because she isn’t. Insulting him to his face and offending him is actually incredibly stupid. Sansa thinks that this moment, when he laughs at her, is when he starts to like her. I wonder if not the opposite is true. That this is the moment he begins to decides to cut her down to “size”, to remind her that she doesn’t get to tell him “2/10. Would not bang.” To remind her that she doesn’t have that power.

I’m not so sure this is an example of Sansa’s power to win people over, as many people have interpreted it. I think could be an(other) example of Sansa’s failure to accurately read the people around her. Which leads me to…



2. The cast of characters surrounding Sansa is problematic, and she may not see them clearly. One is pretty unreservedly positive (Sweetrobin, who wants to marry her–but as Alayne points out, she is far too lowborn for him–aha, another piece of potential foreshadowing!). The other characters in the Vale are, when you consider their motives and circumstances, more troubling.

There’s Myranda, who is disappointed about not being able to marry Harry–quite openly, as even Sansa notices the “hurt” underneath Myranda’s teasing. Myranda seems to genuinely like Sansa, and I genuinely like Randa myself (what a delightful horndog), but I doubt this is noted for no reason. It’s going somewhere.



Nestor Royce (misidentified by blindestspot as Yohn) likely wants Harry for his son-in-law (who wouldn’t want to be FIL to the Lord of the Vale and have their future grandchildren rule it?). He is also kin to Yohn, who has publicly announced his intentions to remove Petyr Baelish from power in the Vale, and who likely warned Harry of LF’s wiles.



Lyn Corbray, whom we know is awful and who may or may not be LF’s catspaw, who knows–Alayne herself wonders, and then dismisses the thought, a troubling sign (though it also seems almost too obvious?). About to lose his inheritance, makes a big deal about how he’s desperate for money, but this could all be a ruse because he is supposed to spy on LF’s enemies, and bitching about LF is probably a good way in with them. Could go either way.



Ser Shadrich–“A good melee is all a hedge knight can hope for, unless he stumbles on a bag of dragons. And that’s not likely, is it?” Again, in need of money. Also, as a lordless hedge knight, relatively powerless.



Lothor Brune, who comforts Sansa after Harry is an ass to her. blindestspot suggest he might be attracted to Sansa, but I think the last time we checked in with him he was crushing on Mya. Seems like a nice guy, seems loyal to LF, but Sansa’s been wrong before. He likely knows Sansa’s identity, which could be useful or could work against her.



And finally LF, who is preoccupied with Sansa-as-Cat-2.0–but, should she prove really troublesome, I have no doubt he’d throw her under a bus and get himself some new plans.



You might say, these characters don’t appear troubling from Sansa’s POV. And that’s the rub. Most of them are polite, friendly, and even warm to her–now. But quite a few have material motives that work against, or may work against, Sansa’s own well-being and success. That spells Bad Things to me.



blindestspot suggests a coalition between Harry and the Royces to avoid the betrothal somehow. I’m not as confident that all the other characters will turn against her, but the ones likeliest to help her are also lower on the totem pole.



A few things to add:

2a. blindestspot leaves off one member of Sansa’s supporting cast–Mya Stone, who doesn’t appear in this chapter. She also, as far as we know, has positive feelings toward “Alayne,” and no material or personal motive to get rid of her or put her down. And actually I find Mya’s position interesting, because if Sansa did end up leaving the Vale by herself or in secret (as blindestspot speculates), Mya is well placed to help her get down the mountains.

2b. If LF has an ongoing problem with cross-class marriages, Sansa has an established problem telling fantasy from reality. As @valiantnedspreciouslittlegirl points out in her analysis of Sansa’s relationship with truth and lies:

[Sansa] does not know how to term what happened. The incident at the Trident, and Lady’s subsequent death, becomes “the awful thing that happened.” And we see a progression of Sansa’s thoughts, a way that she frames the narrative so that she can go from hating Joffrey (rightfully, for he was very much to blame for what happened), to pinning her hatred onto Cersei and Arya. And then, of course, she removes the blame from Cersei and places it squarely on Arya’s shoulders. It makes for a better story, or at least an easier story, and one that allows Sansa to proceed, to have her life be the song she so wants it to be, and for her the lie she tells herself, she is rewarded […] This is a pattern we see again and again: something horrible happening around Sansa, and Sansa softening her own memory of it in order to carry on, burying the truth deep down in her subconscious while telling herself over and over again some other version of events–either of her own creation or of someone else’s. The times in A Game of Thrones when Sansa lashes out, or feels deeply uncomfortable, is frequently because someone is pointing out to her, implicitly or explicitly, that life and songs are not one and the same.



And the same is true of how she views Petyr:

But there is certainly a nugget of truth to the story he tells Sansa, and that nugget is one that she clings to. More than once, it is exactly this that Sansa uses to ease her thoughts of Petyr. When he has not brought her to Winterfell the way she thought he had planned to, she reminds herself that he loved her mother and that therefore he must care for her as well; when she has seen him push Lysa–who had been threatening to kill her while screaming words of hate about Catelyn–out of the Moon Door, she reminds herself that he did so out of love for her mother (“Only Cat”) and that he must also love Sansa as well. It is a sweeter tale, a sweeter lie, than the facts that she has at hand.



So she’s in the habit of, when ugly realities assert themselves to her face, dismissing them or reinterpreting them in whatever way is most comfortable to her (and, of course, in a way that ensures her physical safety–she’s not doing this for funsies, it’s obviously some kind of deeply unhealthy coping mechanism). I think that’s bad news bears for Sansa’s storyline (it begs for violent disruption and disillusionment, which she’s already experienced and, I think, will continue to experience until she wakes up to herself), and casts a suspicious light on her narration. GRRM himself referred to her as an “unreliable narrator”–of course, that was about a different scene, the “UnKiss,” but I think it should cause us to reconsider her interpretation of events more generally.

Sansa’s first impression is that Harry is horrible. And in fairness to her she sticks with that impression for the chapter–it’s not the same as her early illusions about Joffrey. valiantnedspreciouslittlegirl connects that to her growing sense of safety and security in the Vale, and that Sansa even remembers that her father was fostered here as well and draws strength from that fact.



I’m also struck, though, by Sansa’s final observation of Harry: He has good teeth, she thought, straight and white. And when he smiles, he has the nicest dimples. It’s utterly superficial, of course, and far from a ringing endorsement. But it’s also her last impression of him, with no qualifications. Not sure that bodes well.

It’s obvious that Sansa is not deluded about Harry’s character the way she was about Joffrey’s, but that doesn’t mean she is totally clear-eyed, either. It’s more likely, I think, that she is seeing Harry the way LF does–as a pawn to manipulate (that’s how she thinks about him during the final scene at the feast–something to charm, entrance, betwitch, etc) and as her pawn specifically, and it’s just as possible to be wrong about how well that is working (see again: Varys and Aegon, and Varys is a far better game player than Sansa).

In order for me to believe that Sansa is really seeing everything here clearly, I guess what I would need is evidence that she is even a little self-aware of her penchant for rose-colored glasses and revisionist history, and I don’t think there is any. By itself, her growing sense of safety and security isn’t enough to overcome years of psychological habitus–she needs an active acknowledgement of her worst tendencies to do that. So while I think her initial reactions to Harry are promising, I’m not sure they’re evidence of character growth in this regard, and that’s why I’m a bit worried about her perception of how successful she is at charming him. It may be that, while she seems to have wised up in one regard, she’s only exchanging one delusion for another.



And here’s another thing: Sansa is far from actually safe and secure in the Vale, and her circumstances are not very much like Ned’s. For one, LF’s (and by extension Sansa’s) position is much more fraught and precarious. For another, Jon Arryn loved Ned and Robert like they were his own and went to war for Ned. In contrast, LF doesn’t love Sansa (in any unselfish kind of way, at least), and when push comes to shove he won’t fight for her unless it’s advantageous to him. (Imagine with me, if you will, this horrifying scenario: Sansa, in some bid for self-protection, reveals her identity to someone–and the only person we know for sure who can corroborate her story, LF (who as an apparent Lannister loyalist can’t be caught harboring Sansa Stark) turns his back on her. Like I said, this is darkest timeline stuff. But make no mistake, Sansa’s identity will out, and I very much doubt it will be anything like the triumphant unmasking LF envisions. Or seems to envision–it’s also entirely possible that LF’s actual plans are something other than what he’s told Sansa.)

This is the problem with trying to analyze parallels between characters (like Sansa/Ned coming of age in the Vale) in an unfinished work: without an ending to contextualize all this stuff, it could just as well be a deliberate contrast.



This chapter sucked me in with its positivity the first time I read it. I don’t mean to position myself as the ~superior reader~ here. It really does seem encouraging: Sansa feels strong, she feels more secure, she makes a connection with her father (whom she’s been required to disavow at every turn), she’s praised for being clever, everyone seems to like her, she successfully initiated the tournament everyone’s excited about, she seems to overcome an asshole’s assholishness by being charming and following Petyr’s advice, it seems like she’s coming into her own … but this is the first chapter. Have you ever known a story that started that way that didn’t eventually strip those things away?



COUNTERARGUMENTS:

How does Sweetrobin’s probable death figure into all this?

blindestspot implies that Harry’s “punishment” of Sansa might be assault or perhaps public humiliation (“““““ruining””””” her would certainly put an end to a possible betrothal), but I think there’s another possibility. In conjunction with, or instead of, Something Bad happening to Sansa at the tourney, I think this might be the other thing to go horribly wrong.

We know that she is being set up for potentially taking the blame for Sweetrobin’s death–on a narrative level, but also perhaps intentionally by LF (I’m not suggesting that’s his ultimate plan, but someone besides himself has to be implicated just in case). (Some believe she’s in on it, but I don’t, mostly because Sansa Would Never.) She’s more or less in charge of Sweetrobin’s care, and she’s ordered the maester to give him sweetsleep at least once. LF largely keeps his distance. Should there be any questions about the cause of his death, suspicion may well fall on her–especially since, as the heir’s potential wife, she has a stake in it.

In fact, these two storylines could conceivably converge here rather neatly: an accusation of murder would put an immediate end to any talk of marriage, wouldn’t it? All the anti-Sarry coalition (lol) would have to do is take advantage of a chaotic situation.



What about all those awesome food stores and fresh soldiers in the Vale we keep hearing about? Isn’t that part of Sansa’s future plot?

Yeah, we’ve been hearing about them more or less constantly in Sansa’s chapters, and it’s clear that the Vale is perfectly poised to lend assistance to the North in the war against the Others (or even the South, with its possible incoming eldritch apocalypse–though my guess would be the North for ~thematic reasons~). So I often hear, for example, about a long march to Winterfell led by Sansa. Here’s one take by @joannalannister.



I am less sure about how all this might fit together, because I find this speculation separately compelling (though also a bit worryingly triumphant–like, maybe it’s too appealing to me, you know?):

First, Sansa would have to be in a position of power to accomplish anything like this. If I am right that the Harry marriage is never going to happen–and obviously never say never when it comes to ASOIAF/GRRM, but on this I’m as close to “never” as it’s prudent to get–she probably won’t be. It’s possible she could be betrothed to/marry Sweetrobin, assuming he survives (though I don’t think he will), or it’s possible Petyr is more aware than he seems in Alayne’s TWOW chapter (always possible) and has counter-plans against the Royces to keep his position in the Vale, leaving his “daughter” secure (though she’s still more of a pawn than a leader in that scenario–but then all she has to do is make him fly…).

Second, it is undoubtedly important, but it may not end up being part of her storyline specifically, or maybe it will in a completely different way than any of us are imagining. My imagination is not very good, so I don’t have any specific ideas, I’m afraid. (All I am coming up with is that Sansa knows quite a lot about the Vale, how it works, the major power players, its capacity to feed itself and fight, all of which is potentially useful information.) And I’m not totally committed to these worst-case scenarios–I find joannalannister’s speculation about the possibility of Sansa “holding,” especially considering the foreshadowing of Sansa during the Battle of the Blackwater, very compelling. But it doesn’t necessarily require all the material goods of the Vale–in fact I think there would be something really moving about a contrast between Cersei’s wealth and coldness, and Sansa’s relative lack and personal warmth and leadership.

(Of course, if the twin apocalypses aren’t just averted but do significant destruction to the population of Westeros, as they may well, they might not need all that food! Hahaha … ha …)



Don’t we already know how Sansa is going to turn on LF–by learning about what LF did to Ned/Jeyne?

Yes and no. Like just about everyone, I think learning one or both of these pieces of information is going to be a turning point for Sansa and potentially cause her to act against LF.

But there’s no rule that says the eye-opening, waking-up process has to happen all at once. Realizing that LF’s plans didn’t keep her safe would cause her to lose a certain kind of faith in him, and would definitely cause her to question her illusions, but it’s not the same as opposing him on moral grounds for all the evil he’s committed, especially to people she loved.

It may be that we see two stages in Sansa’s response to LF: 1) potentially but not necessarily running away, and coming to terms with his failure/betrayal and her own blindness, and 2) turning and fighting, committing to taking down LF herself. This would require two turning points instead of one. This speculation is pretty off-the-cuff, though, and again I’m not super-committed here, so do with that what you will. Even more tentative speculation: If she did leave the Vale, this would give her more time to interact with the thematically important and relevant-information-having characters (namely Arya and Sandor) while already being in the middle of processing her stuff.

Conclusions

It may be that I’ve badly misread the subtext of Alayne I/TWOW. Perhaps everyone really does love her, and she genuinely managed to charm Harry the Arse. Certainly it’s possible that Harry, expecting to be sucked up to, was really intrigued by Sansa’s take-no-shit attitude (though it also seems like the kind of relationship trope GRRM might intentionally subvert). I read the books several years ago but never got into the fandom–I’m still woefully behind on catching up with all the theories and speculation out there, and I’m sure there’s something I’ve missed somewhere.

In truth, I’m a bit of a contrarian, and I see “lots of other people seem very optimistic about Sansa’s prospects” as a source of worry (and also a bit of a challenge). Like I said, I’m not married to all or even many of these scenarios–I’m throwing out ideas as much as anything, seeing if something sticks, and to that end I invite response and conversation.

[many thanks to @jonnsansa for looking over this for me]

