Increasingly embattled Speaker may face primary challenge

Keith Farrell

From debt ceiling limits, to gun control, to Syria and now Affordable Care Act funding, Speaker of the House John Boehner has continually found himself at odds with a large base of his party’s constituents. Trying to work with leadership in DC, Boehner has repeatedly come down too softly or on the wrong side altogether of issues important to conservatives and libertarians. As Tea Party ire builds and Congress grows more rigid with public opinion, it appears Boehner will be forced to follow his party’s will on Affordable Care Act funding this week. Boehner may attempt to change his posture, but his unpopularity is growing and the likelihood of a primary challenge in next year’s election is high.

Boehner’s term as Speaker has been disappointing to many Republicans who saw the 2010 Tea Party-led taking of the House as a chance to cut back big government. Boehner quickly deflated any such enthusiasm by giving support to the president’s request to raise the debt ceiling in 2011. What followed was Boehner’s first clash with House Republicans. The newly elected House members were clear: they had been elected to cut spending, and would not support a debt ceiling hike.

The Speaker has been continually torn between status quo party members, those who are willing to work with the White House and Democrats on many issues, and a vocal constituency which is demanding an end to the tax, borrow and spend, business-as-usual politics. The rift has grown and given way to what some are calling a GOP civil war. On one side, Boehner, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the rest of the “Old Guard,” as they have been dubbed. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has emerged as the leader of the opposition, sharply criticizing the Old Guard and arguing for a more inclusive party that could compete in blue states.

Boehner hasn’t just forsaken popular opinion, he has foregone Republican Party tradition. Former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert is credited with developing the Hastert Rule: a policy that maintains a Speaker should only bring a bill to the floor for vote if it is supported by the majority of the majority party. This rule is intended to limit party in-fighting and to maintain speakerships. From fiscal-cliff deals to Hurricane Sandy Relief, Boehner has flaunted the rule, continually showing he will hold votes on issues his party is opposed to. This year, Boehner has found himself aligned with the President and in opposition to the majority of his legislators and his party on three major issues. He signaled his willingness to work with the White House on gun control, causing a party uproar. He found himself on the losing side of the debate over military intervention in Syria. Now his reluctance to aggressively try to defund the Affordable Care Act appears to have been rectified by party pressure.

Originally Boehner had intended to send separate bills to the Senate dealing with the approaching debt ceiling limit and the defunding of the Affordable Care Act. Instead pressure has forced Boehner to tie the two together, allowing Democrats a debt ceiling increase only if Affordable Care is defunded. A move the White House warned could result in government shutdown.

Boehner’s recent concessions reflect a rapidly changing political climate that has left libertarian Republicans in the driver seat. At home, the pressure is also on, as Boehner’s posturing on Syria has left a sour taste in the mouths of many of his local constituents. If Boehner’s popularity, or lack thereof, was at all in question, Tea Party activists have begun calling Affordable Care “Boehner Care,” as a way to attack the Speaker’s tacit acceptance of the law and his refusal to join in calls for defunding it. A recent poll shows half of registered Republicans in Boehner’s district, Ohio’s 8th, welcome a primary challenge to the Speaker in next year’s election. If things continue as they have, it would seem inevitable.