The lead up to the provincial campaign has the NDP government trying to draw a stark contrast in leadership between themselves and the UCP. The underlying premise of this strategy says that Notley is a popular Premier; Kenney is an unpopular Opposition Leader, and; it is better to have voters concentrating on “who will be the best premier” than on less appealing areas of the NDP’s record as government.



Is this a sound strategy? Will it be effective?



We won’t have to wait long to find out, but at first blush there are weaknesses. First and foremost, the underlying premise isn’t correct.

Notley and Kenny are fairly evenly matched when it comes to approval. The Premier currently sits at 44% approval, compared to Kenney at 43% but she also suffers from higher disapproval than the UCP leader (51% vs. 45%)

Notley appeals more to more urban votersoKenney appeals more to more rural/suburban voters. Kenney also has a “gender gap” issue

Notley is more popular among undecideds than Kenney, but there are limits on growth from this group; One-half of undecided voters disapprove of the Premier





Notley likely is the most potent weapon in the NDP arsenal, but this is as much a reflection of the party’s limitations as it is of her leadership. Her approval numbers track ahead of the NDP’s vote-share (unlike Kenney’s), and her approval among likely NDP voters is almost universal.





Click the link to view detailed findings and methodology: Alberta Leader Evalutions February 2019

MEDIA INQUIRIES:

Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.

marc@thinkhq.com

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