SMART’s sales tax extension measure failed to meet the two-thirds majority support needed to pass Tuesday.

With 100% of precincts counted, election results from Marin show 53.51% of Marin voters in favor and 46.49% opposed. In Sonoma, 49.88% voted yes and 50.12% were opposed.

Mike Arnold of the NotSoSMART opposition campaign said the results show voters who demanded transparency and accountability “decidedly won.”

“The future of rail in the North Bay now depends on whether or not the SMART board listens to the message voters have just sent them,” Arnold said. “The (SMART) board needs to step up and clean house and find a new management team that can provide leadership that voters can trust.”

SMART Board of Directors chairman Eric Lucan said the early results are “certainly not where we would have wanted to be at this point.”

Lucan said if the measure failed in the final tally, the board will need community input on what will be “tough decisions” moving ahead.

“We’re still trying to provide the best level of service for the entire North Bay,” Lucan said.

Measure I would have extended the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit district’s existing quarter-cent sales tax for 30 years, pushing the sunset date to April 1, 2059.

Whether Measure I succeeded or failed was weighted more heavily on Sonoma’s vote count because of the county’s larger voter base. More than 162,242 voters in Sonoma voted in favor of SMART’s original tax measure, Measure Q, in 2008 compared to the 83,300 in Marin. Sonoma’s 73.7% approval of Measure Q was able to make up for the shortfall of Marin’s 62.8% support.

The support flipped this time with Measure I. Early results showed 53.5% of Marin voters were in favor of the measure and 46.5% opposed. Among Sonoma voters, 48.3% approve the measure and 51.7% oppose it.

The transit district sought an early extension so that it can avoid forecast service cuts in the next five years and continue to provide leveraging funds to extend its existing 45-mile rail to Cloverdale as well as build out its bike and pedestrian path.

Opponents of the measure say the district should be considering cuts and have criticized the district’s management, financial planning and transparency to the public.

SMART estimates the tax would generate about $40 million per year with the revenue increasing with inflation.

The district’s operating expenses continue to exceed revenue, which if left unaddressed would eventually deplete SMART’s $26.5 million operations fund balance and its $17 million operations reserve balance by 2024, according to the financial projections. About $9 million in new revenues or cuts would be needed to bring the budget back into balance during this time, staff said.

Should the tax fail to pass, SMART staff said they would begin a two-year planning process to decide where cuts could be made. Initial cuts could likely be in the number of train trips, staffing levels and stalling planned rail and pathway extensions. SMART has already funded construction for a $65 million rail extension to Windsor, which is set for completion in late 2021 or early 2022.

Close to $3 million was raised by the opposing campaigns on the controversial measure since the start of the year, the highest of any election this year and in recent memory. The opposition campaign, NotSoSMART, was almost entirely bankrolled by one individual: Gallaher Homes Chief Operating Officer Molly Flater of Sonoma County.

Flater has contributed about $1.8 million as of the end of February.

The tax advocates, “Stay Green, Keep SMART,” raised about $1.1 million, with $1 million coming from the Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria near Rohnert Park.