Defying concerns that the peace process is a lost cause, the Trump administration has spent more than a year promising to broker the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians. Meanwhile, the administration has aligned itself closely with Israel’s government by moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and slashing American funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the agency responsible for Palestinian refugees. Details of the administration’s peace plan remain a closely guarded secret, leaving uncertain how the White House intends to resolve a conflict that is increasingly resistant to foreign mediation.

By moving the embassy and cutting funding for refugees, President Trump has slaughtered the sacred cows of the peace process. For decades, candidates have pledged to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, yet fear of an Arab backlash had prevented any White House from following through. With his decision, Trump called the bluff of Palestinian negotiators and numerous experts who warned that such a move would set the region ablaze. The president added insult to injury by shuttering the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) mission in Washington, DC and downgrading the U.S. consulate in East Jerusalem to an extension of the Jerusalem embassy, thereby removing a symbol of American support for Palestinian claims to the city.

The administration has similarly dismantled the Palestinian refugee issue. UNRWA’s unique policy of granting refugee status to the descendants of refugees has increased the original population of less than 700,000 displaced Palestinians in 1949 to more than 5.4 million today. Previously UNRWA’s top donor accounting for a quarter of agency’s budget, the U.S. has pulled $305 million in contributions and does not intend to renew its support. Palestinians again warned that such a move would set the region on tilt. Once again, Trump proved them wrong – at least for now.

The administration has also pushed back hard against efforts to delegitimize Israel at the UN. Notably, the White House exited UNESCO, the first UN body to grant full membership to the “State of Palestine.” The U.S. stopped funding the agency in 2011 after it admitted Palestine as a member state but only ended formal ties in 2018, under the Trump administration. The administration has also exited the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), whose members include China, Cuba, and other dictatorships, yet condemns Israel more often than all other nations combined.

Controversially, Trump has also withheld $200 million of U.S. aid to projects in the West Bank and Gaza to pressure Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to reengage in the peace process. This came after Congress passed the Taylor Force Act, which cut aid to the Palestinian Authority (PA) until it ends payments to terrorists and their families. In response, Abbas and the PA have boycotted the administration, refusing to meet American officials. Congress then passed the Anti-Terrorism Clarification Act of 2018, which could threaten the remaining Palestinian security aid. These cuts raise real concerns about Washington’s ability to have influence with the Palestinians on key issues, like security cooperation with the Israelis.

The Trump administration’s broader strategy appears designed to break the Palestinians’ cycle of dependence on foreign support, which encourages corruption, thereby necessitating additional support. On that score, Trump advisor Jason Greenblatt has focused on growing the Palestinian economy to encourage self-sufficiency and perhaps stimulate investment in the peace process. And the focus has not only been on the West Bank. In March 2018, the White House hosted a Gaza humanitarian relief conference, attended by 19 countries but boycotted by the Palestinians. This was part of Trump’s efforts to enlist regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia, to encourage new thinking on Gaza, which is currently subject to an Israeli blockade because the terrorist group Hamas controls the coastal enclave.