China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2017, accelerates for first time in 7 years

Of course, you might want to take that number with a healthy dose of skepticism

China’s economy grew at a surprisingly brisk 6.9% in 2017, beating the projections of experts and even its own government.

Beijing had set a goal in 2017 of 6.5% GDP growth, while analysts polled by Reuters were expecting 6.7% growth. Despite a number of worries about the country taking on unsustainable amounts of debt and risk, China’s economy instead managed its first acceleration since 2010, following 2016’s GDP growth rate of 6.7%, the weakest pace in 26 years.

Of course, it’s well worth noting that there are perhaps no numbers taken with a larger grain of salt by experts than China’s official GDP data, particularly as more and more creative accounting practices by local officials are exposed.

Last January, the governor of Liaoning province admitted that from 2011 to 2014, the province’s GDP figures were artificially inflated by at least 20% each year, marking the first time that the Chinese government admitted to falsifying economic data at any level.

However, it turns out that Liaoning officials aren’t the only ones that have been cooking the books. A few months later, cadres in areas of Inner Mongolia and Jilin were also caught faking economic data. This month, Tianjin’s Binhai New Area raised eyebrows after admitting that its GDP growth in 2016 was a third smaller than it previously stated, while the city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia lowered its estimated fiscal revenue in 2017 by almost 50%, confessing to “fake additions.”

It’s long been believed that local Chinese officials often over-report economic growth and under-report unemployment numbers in order to secure promotions for themselves. The South China Morning Post speculates that officials are finally starting to come clean about these practices because Xi Jinping has shifted government focus “away from headline increases in GDP to slower but more sustainable growth.”

Ironically enough, the Financial Times argues that China’s fake, inflated data from the past is actually masking how strong of an economic recovery the country’s northern industrial provinces are currently making.

Either way, nobody really believes that China will be able to sustain its official 6.9% pace. Economists polled by Reuters have predicted that the country’s economic growth will slow down to 6.5% in 2018, while China is also reported to be maintaining its official target at 6.5%.