It’s finally over. After 17 long weeks, very few of which actually made any sense, we’re finally getting to the main event. The NFL playoffs are here.

The NFL is known for its parity, but more so than other seasons, this year, it feels like there’s a clear line between the teams that are actually capable of winning the Super Bowl and those that are just along for the ride.

So that’s how we’ve structured these power rankings. Up first, we’ll take a deeper look at the four teams that have what it takes to lift the Lombardi Trophy a month from now. Then we’ll sort out the rest.

Let’s start with the favorites to win it all…

The contenders

1. Baltimore Ravens

Record: 14-2

Point differential: +249

Offensive DVOA rank: 1st

Defensive DVOA rank: 4th

It’s crazy how much the perception of the Ravens has evolved since the offseason. After an exodus of defensive veterans, it was assumed this would be a year of transition for the defense. And the same could be said for an offense that would have to shift its identity for the first full season of Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback.

The transition didn’t take long. From the jump, the offense bulldozed opposing defenses. Greg Roman designed an exquisite scheme for his young quarterback, who has been the engine for this option-based rushing attack that is arguably the best we’ve ever seen. As if the Ravens’ perfectly executed exchanges at the mesh point didn’t give defenders enough trouble, Roman’s league-leading use of pre-snap motion further complicated things for overwhelmed opponents just trying to line up in the right run gap. And even when defenses did manage to get everyone aligned properly, they still had to tackle Jackson, which proved to be an impossible task.

Now throw a heavy dose of play-action passes designed off the complex run game, and defenses didn’t stand a chance — especially with Jackson making great strides as a pocket passer. Even when defenses somehow did manage to get the Ravens to fourth down, John Harbaugh would just fo for it anyway. Getting this offense off the field hasn’t been easy.

Early in the season, though, the defense wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain. Those offseason concerns about the defense appeared to be warranted, as the pass rush struggled to get pressure on opposing passers and the secondary couldn’t stop blowing coverages. Defensive coordinator Don Martindale eventually adjusted. The Ravens started blitzing more — A LOT more — and played Earl Thomas closer to the line, where he could be more disruptive as a pass defender. A midseason trade for Marcus Peters helped to shore up the cornerback group. And with Martindale’s aggressive blitzes getting home and the coverage improved, it wasn’t long before Baltimore’s defense was keeping pace with its offense.

As we head into the playoffs, the Ravens arguably have both the league’s best offense and defense. Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric has them pegged as one of the best teams of the last 35 years.

The 2019 Ravens end up as the No. 7 team ever measured by DVOA (since 1985) for the regular season. #RavensFlock (2/x) pic.twitter.com/P75GZwszOG — Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) December 30, 2019

Vegas seems to agree and has the Ravens as the heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl. That title is well earned.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 12-4

Point differential: +143

Offensive DVOA rank: 3rd

Defensive DVOA rank: 10th

If there is one team that can challenge the Ravens, it’s this one. In fact, the Chiefs are the only team in the playoff field with a win over Baltimore this season. But that came at the beginning of the season when the Ravens defense hadn’t found its footing yet.

But the same could be said about the Chiefs offense. It’s been an uneven season for the league’s most explosive offense — especially in the red zone — but Kansas City is getting healthy at just the right time. The passing game is still explosive as ever, and it will have to be if the Chiefs stand a chance at beating the Ravens.

I may have been more optimistic about the defense before rookie safety Juan Thornhill left the win over the Chargers with a knee injury that will force him to miss the playoffs. Thornhill, along with Tyrann Mathieu and new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, helped turn around what had been one of the league’s worst pass defenses a season ago. With those improvements, the Chiefs defense was no longer the crippling weakness it was a season ago.

But with Thornhill out, the match coverages Spagnuolo installed might be more difficult to execute. That remains to be seen. What we already know is that this Kansas City run defense remains awful, which will be a problem with Baltimore likely standing in the way of a Super Bowl berth.

3. San Francisco 49ers

Record: 13-3

Point differential: +169

Offensive DVOA rank: 9th

Defensive DVOA rank: 2nd

My view on the 49ers has pretty much remained the same since September. This team is capable of beating any team in the league — as evidenced by the road win in New Orleans and the narrow loss in Baltimore — but I’m still wary of Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan’s game management.

Garoppolo is undoubtedly a talented thrower — especially when his first read is open — but when the picture isn’t clear, his decision-making and accuracy take a hit. Shanahan’s finely-choreographed offense obviously helps in that regard; I just wonder what will happen if the 49ers run into a defensive coach capable of putting together a gameplan that rivals whatever Shanahan cooks up. If an opposing team can force Garoppolo to go beyond his first option more often than not, this offense could sputter.

As for Shanahan’s game management, this becomes a much larger issue in the playoffs when teams are evenly matched and the margins are slimmer. Clock management has been an issue for him throughout his time as the 49ers coach and he’s still too conservative when it comes to fourth-down decisions and run-pass balance. A decision to punt the ball on fourth-and-1 against the Seahawks on Sunday night nearly cost his team the NFC West.

Kyle Shanahan's decision to punt on 4th-and-1 from the 49ers' 30-yard line with 2:34 left cost SF just over two percentage points of win probability, per ESPN's model. The 49ers had an 81.9% chance to win by punting and would have had an 84% chance to win by going for it. — Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 30, 2019

Shanahan needs to be a bit bolder if the 49ers are going to win it all.

With all of that said, the 49ers have to be considered the favorites to win the NFC. Shanahan is the best offensive play-caller in the league right now, the road to the Super Bowl goes through San Francisco Santa Clara, the defense has taken a step back but could be getting healthy just in time for the playoffs and the first-round bye gives them a distinct advantage over the other real contender in the conference…

4. New Orleans Saints

Record: 13-3

Point differential: +117

Offensive DVOA rank: 4th

Defensive DVOA rank: 12th

As crazy as it sounds, the biggest concern for the Saints headed into the postseason might be Drew Brees. Don’t get me wrong: Brees is still absurdly efficient but there’s no denying that this New Orleans passing game lacks a downfield element and has lacked it for over a year now. With a trip to Lambeau looming, Brees’ play outside of the comfort of a dome is also troubling. The 40-year-old quarterback could look 45 if we get some classic Green Bay weather two weeks from now.

Alvin Kamara’s unconvincing return from a high ankle sprain is another concern. He found the end zone twice in the Week 17 win over Carolina, but he hasn’t looked like the same explosive runner we had grown accustomed to over the past two years. His yards-after-contact and evaded tackle numbers are way down, and Sean Payton has had to adjust the way he’s used Kamara as a receiver. Maybe the second-half emergence of Jared Cook, along with Michael Thomas’ reliable brilliance, will be enough to offset what they’ve lost from Kamara, but I don’t know if that will be the case if Brees isn’t playing at a high level.

At one point in the season, it was the Saints defense that was carrying the team. Dennis Allen’s forward-thinking defensive scheme, which prioritized pass defense by defending the run with as few numbers as possible, was much easier to pull off before the massive injuries to Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins. Without those two monsters on the line, New Orleans has had a more difficult time defending the run without committing an extra guy in the box. Obviously losing their pass rush contributions was a big blow, as well. This defense is still solid from front to back. It’s just not nearly as impressive as it was a month ago.

On paper, the Saints still look like the most balanced team in the NFC, but they’ll have to go through Green Bay and San Francisco on the road to make a run to the Super Bowl … and do it without the benefit of a bye.

The rest of the pack

5. New England Patriots

Record: 12-4

Point differential: +195

Offensive DVOA rank: 11th

Defensive DVOA rank: 1st

It feels like blasphemy to exclude the Patriots from the group of real contenders, but they haven’t given me any reason to put them in it. The offense is a drag to watch, the defense is good but no defense is reliable week in and week out (as we saw in Week 17), and now the Pats have to win three consecutive games, including two possible road games against the Ravens and Chiefs, just to make it to the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick is the best coach in the playoff field, but there’s only so much he can do with this roster. Unless Tom Brady somehow turns back the clock and rediscovers his fastball (and precision, for that matter) New England’s streak of AFC title game appearances is going to end.

6. Green Bay Packers

Record: 13-3

Point differential: +63

Offensive DVOA rank: 7th

Defensive DVOA rank: 15th

We were one Seahawks touchdown away from the Packers winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. I still can’t wrap my head around that. What does this team do well? It isn’t great at passing the ball, and the defense is prone to long stretches of ineptitude. The only hope is Aaron Rodgers going Super Saiyan and playing like the elite quarterback he used to be. Yes, you read that right. Rodgers has missed too many throws and is coming off arguably his worst performance of the season in Week 17. He isn’t what he used to be. At least not consistently. And if Rodgers isn’t performing at an elite level, I don’t think it’s too hot of a take to say that Green Bay might be the worst 13-3 team in NFL history. The numbers back it up.

Props to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have to be the team nobody in the NFC wants to face. Green Bay is the 49th team to go 13-3, but the only team clutch enough to do so while outscoring their opponents by less than 4 points per game. pic.twitter.com/yCNfKlbakE — Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 29, 2019

7. Minnesota Vikings

Record: 10-6

Point differential: +104

Offensive DVOA rank: 10th

Defensive DVOA rank: 7th

If you were just looking at the Vikings’ efficiency numbers, you might be able to talk yourself into them being Super Bowl sleepers. Good luck with that. I’m not falling into the trap. These are the Vikings we’re talking about, after all. They will find some excruciating way to lose. I don’t think their fans are expecting anything less than a soul-crushing end to this season. We’ve also got Kirk Cousins in a high-pressure situation here. Earlier in the season, it looked like Cousins was ready to exercise those “clutch” demons and then he laid an egg in the NFC North decider against the Packers in Week 16. Same old Kirk. I also don’t trust Mike Zimmer to properly manage a game in crunch time.

8. Seattle Seahawks

Record: 11-5

Point differential: +7

Offensive DVOA rank: 5th

Defensive DVOA rank: 16th

I think my skepticism of these Seahawks can be summed up in two tweets…

Tweet 1:

Meanwhile, in a universe not too far from our own, here are the current NFL standings if every one-score game was flipped: pic.twitter.com/mxCKpoliKU — Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) December 28, 2019

Tweet 2:

Yes, the Seahawks were unlucky. Yes, the Seahawks also had fewer two-score wins than the Bengals this season. — Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) December 30, 2019

The Seahawks are lucky to be in the playoffs. They enter the postseason with the worst point-differential of any NFC team. Yes, even the Eagles, who only managed to win nine games, have them beat in that category. In fact, three NFC teams that didn’t make the playoffs — the Rams, Buccaneers and Cowboys — had a better point differential than Seattle this year. So why aren’t they lower on the list? Well, Russell Wilson exists, and as long as that’s the case, the Seahawks will be in any game.

9. Tennessee Titans

Record: 9-7

Point differential: +71

Offensive DVOA rank: 6th

Defensive DVOA rank: 17th

I’m not going to pretend like I know what to make of this Titans team. Ryan Tannehill is probably little more than an above-average quarterback, as he’s been for his entire career. Or maybe he’s the best quarterback in the league, as the stats indicate. I’d say it’s probably somewhere in the middle, but a matchup with the Patriots defense will, in all likelihood, make him look worse than that. I’m more concerned with the other side of the ball, however. Houston is the only playoff team with a worse pass defense according to DVOA. And if the Patriots can pass the ball effectively, the Titans won’t stand a chance on the road in New England.

10. Houston Texans

Record: 10-6

Point differential: -7

Offensive DVOA rank: 16th

Defensive DVOA rank: 22nd

The Texans are capable of beating any team on this list. Unfortunately, they’re also capable of losing to any team on this list, and it’s been a while since we’ve seen the good version of the Texans. I just can’t get the Broncos game out of my mind. As good as Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins are, the offense has been inconsistent and any slip-up by the offense will likely end Houston’s season because that defense is baaaaaaad.

11. Buffalo Bills

Record: 10-6

Point differential: +55

Offensive DVOA rank: 21st

Defensive DVOA rank: 5th

The Bills may very well be the best-coached team in the field outside of New England. And after a brief midseason lull, Sean McDermott has the defense playing at an elite level again. Two problems, though: Buffalo will be stuck playing on the road throughout the playoffs and the passing game, led by the inconsistent Josh Allen, is statistically the worst in the field. That’s a lot to overcome for a team with very little playoff experience. The Bills are capable of springing an upset of Houston but that’s this team’s ceiling.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 9-7

Point differential: +31

Offensive DVOA rank: 15th

Defensive DVOA rank: 13th

On paper, the Eagles are a lot better than this ranking. But how do you look at this active roster and have any confidence in it beating a good football team? The pass defense is unreliable, and with Russell Wilson coming to town, that could cause some problems. If Philly falls behind early, it’s hard to see them pulling off a comeback throwing to Greg Ward and a bunch of other receivers you’ve never heard of.