Forum is most accurate with an average deviation of 0.7%

TORONTO, OCTOBER 20th, 2015 – Out of all the polling firms tracking the 42nd Canadian general election, Forum has proven to be the most accurate. Forum successfully predicted the election outcome within 0.7% average deviation. Furthermore, Forum is the only firm to predict a Liberal majority government giving the Liberal party 40% of the vote, and 171 seats in the October 18th final report. When it comes to sample size and margin of error, Forum predicted the outcome within a margin of error of +/- 3%.

“Once again, Forum’s IVR polling methodology has proven itself to be the most accurate means of polling public opinion, and it allowed us to accurately predict the Liberal majority outcome,” said Forum Research president Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.





% Lib Cons NDP Bloc Green Other Average Deviation Results (rounded) 40 32 20 5 3 0 Results (first decimal) 39.5 31.9 19.7 4.6 3.4 0.9 Forum Research 40 30 20 6 3 1 0.7 Nanos 38.2 30.1 21.2 4.9 4.7 0.8 1.1 CBC Poll Tracker 37.2 30.9 21.7 4.9 4.4 0.9 1.1 EKOS 35.8 31.9 20.4 4.9 5.6 1 1.2 IPSOS-Reid 38 31 22 4 4 1 1.3 Leger 38 30 22 6 4 0 1.3 Mainstreet Research 38 33 21 4 5 1 1.3 Angus Reid 35 31 22 5 5 2 2.0 Innovative Research 38 30 22 3 6 1 2.0 Abacus Data 32 33 24 4 5 2 3.0 Environics 29 26 34 4 8 0 6.2

Methodology

Forum only used the final election prediction numbers published by each organization prior to Election Day.

To calculate the average deviation Forum Research compared survey results per party to actual election results. The deviation per party was then averaged to determine overall accuracy in predicting the election.

Most firms provided their predictions using rounded numbers however a few predicted to the first decimal. In order to fairly assess each organization’s election prediction we use comparable election numbers. We have provided the election results in both rounded and first decimal values.

