Wyn Evans’s family has farmed in the hills of Ceredigion, west Wales, for five centuries. This is a remote, wet and often cold corner of the UK, a tough place to live and work but the biggest threat at the moment comes not in the shape of the winter storms.

“Brexit is what’s worrying us at the moment. This is a very difficult time for farmers,” said Evans, 55, who rears sheep and cattle with his wife Nicole and son Gwynfor. “It’s a job to plan because nobody knows what’s going to happen. We’re on the cusp of lambing just now. I can’t tell you if I’ll have a lucrative market for our lambs or not. You have to carry on even though you don’t know what’s around the corner.

“If there is no deal it would be horrific for farmers, especially in the sheep sector. If we have tariffs of 40/50/60% we wouldn’t be able to compete. We would suffer serious hardship. When we had foot and mouth and the borders closed the price of lamb collapsed. That’s the reality. The losses to farmers and to the rural community as a whole would be huge.”

Only 5% of lamb produced in Wales is consumed in the country, according to Hybu Cig Cymru – Meat Promotion Wales – and up to 40% is exported out of the UK. More than 90% of these exports are to the EU.

Evans’s lambs initially go to an abattoir across the hills in Llanidloes. The prime cuts – the legs and shoulders – end up on supermarket shelves in the UK. However, the European market is vital for so-called “carcass balance” – the bits of lamb that are not so popular in the UK are exported. The meat from lighter lambs produced by Evans and his colleagues is also popular in Portugal and Italy.

Brexit has already prompted Evans to reduce his flock – from around 400 to 370. “We’ve cut down on the sheep slightly,” he said. To try to compensate he has boosted the number of beef cattle he rears. “There’s a lot of young cattle around the place,” he said. The UK is a net importer of beef so Evans is calculating that the beef price may hold up.

Brexit follows a difficult 12 months weather-wise for farmers such as Evans. Last March it was cold – the beast from east bit viciously here – and was followed by a hot summer. “Our spare bales went last spring. Then we had that horrendously dry summer. The grass didn’t grow well, the crops were light. We’ve got nothing to stockpile. We are struggling this winter for forage.”

Quick guide How much does farming in Wales rely on the EU? Show Hide Welsh farming in numbers Only 5% of lamb produced in Wales is consumed in Wales, with up to 40% being exported outside the UK. It is estimated that over 90% of these exports are traded within the European Union single market, and worth over €200m (£174m) per year.



According to NFU Cymru, under WTO terms, exports of lamb would face an effective tariff rate of around 46% on average, whilst for beef effective rates would be between 48% and 84%.

Around 85% of the land area of Wales is used for agriculture. Three quarters of this is grassland pasture, of which 80% is “LFA” – less favourable area – land. This is suitable for sheep and cattle farming rather than arable. Just under a third (29%) of the UK’s sheep are within Wales.

The average Welsh farm business income in 2016-17 was £24,500, less than the Scotland (£26,000), England (£38,000) and UK (£33,000) averages.



In 2017, there were approximately 466,200 people working in the agricultural sector in the UK, 11% of which (53,500) were in Wales. Sources: Meat Promotion Wales/Hybu Cig Cymru; NFU Cymru; Welsh government; Welsh assembly

The longevity of his family in this area, just south-east of Aberystwyth, means Evans can put Brexit and its possible impact on farming on this spot into a historical perspective.

Age-old maps and records make it is clear that grain was grown here in the 19th century when the corn laws imposed tariffs on imported food. When the corn laws were repealed by Tory Sir Robert Peel (overcoming the opposition of most of his party), it was deemed unviable to grow grain on this soggy, steep land.

“What we can do very well is grow grass,” said Evans. “The most efficient way of using the land is to graze animals. That is the best way of producing a world-class protein.”

Evans voted to stay in the EU. “I was an avid remainer. I’m very frustrated over how things have gone. I would have thought by now we would have had clarification. Are we going to have unfettered access to that very important market that gives my business security moving forward? We need to know. Parliament and so many individuals within it are so indecisive. Party politics has played too much of a role. We should have had a coalition, a collaboration at the start of this process.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Evans: ‘Rural communities gel when there’s a crisis.’ Photograph: Gareth Phillips/The Guardian

Evans, who votes Plaid Cymru or Liberal Democrat, said he had backed the doomed deal that Theresa May put before parliament. “For agriculture and manufacturing in Wales it was the best deal. It was a good job of a bad job. I’ve got qualms about a second referendum. If it went the same way as the previous one, I don’t know were we’d go then. We’d be in total chaos – ungovernable. No politician would know what to do. At the moment I like the look of a Norway plus deal. I don’t know if she would get that through parliament.”

Evans, who is chairman of the NFU Cymru livestock board, says that if the farmers struggle, the rural economy will be harshly hit. “I spend all the money from the farm within a 20-mile radius. The feed merchants, the builders, the mechanics are all local.” The farm is run by the three family members but they also employ outside contractors to shear the sheep and cut hedges. “There are lot of people out there relying on the farmers,” he said.

Evans is optimistic the farm will survive whatever Brexit brings. “We’ve been here a long, long time,” he said. “As a boy I remember following my grandfather around the farm as he did his chores. From an early age I wanted to be a farmer. Within this area this is what we do, this is who we are. Farming and the rural community is my passion. We should be proud of what we do and what we produce.”

“Last winter when the beast from the east was hitting hard, most of us were about to start lambing. We looked after our animals to the highest standard even though the elements were horrific and within our communities we helped out clearing roads for no monetary gain. We did that because we’re passionate about the communities we live in. Rural communities gel when there’s a crisis. Long may it last.”