Amazon.Plague

“The world of 2020 looks bleak. Since 2010, the globe has been swept by highly contagious, deadly viruses that flare, die down and return in mutated form. The World economy has declined sharply as trade and commerce have dried up, and is now mired in a serious, long-term recession. Many nations have become either authoritarian, ruled by demagogic strongmen, or simply succumbed to chaos. The U.S. is among a handful of countries fortunate enough to have resilient political structures and relatively low fatality rates.” — Proteus Appendix B

So opens Appendix B of the Proteus study. A fictional narrative follows a young woman navigating the changing landscape, traveling between sterile enclaves in her self-driving transport, swiping her medical ID before entering her home base via an “AntiViro” chamber after being robotically scanned for evidence of infection.

From their vantage point prior to 2000, without foreknowledge of the real events experienced since, the Proteus futurists describe a landscape of 2020 which has followed three pandemic waves. Direct quotes from the Proteus Study are indicated as such.

The Landscape in 2020, After the Pandemics

The world is divided in States that are “Viable” and those that are not. The Viable States have signed a mutual assistance treaty to find a cure for the viruses and protect national security. They have sealed their borders, but are constantly threatened by mass migration attempts from less fortunate neighbors. They have turned inward, not doing much to help the poorer nations, many hardly nation-states still, except for a few that have a degree of functionality under authoritarianism.

In the U.S., the traditional political parties have morphed into two camps: the “Techs” and the “Greens.” The Greens have retreated to nature-communities and believe that everything that has gone bad can be traced to the imposition of technology itself, that industrialization has become the bane of the planet. The Techs live in sterile enclaves functioning by means of e-commerce.

Setting the Stage 2000–2010

The much anticipated Y2K threat proved less than feared, but did have a noticeable impact, causing a mild global recession in early 2000. E-business takes off in the early 2000s, leading to new tech investment and demand for wider bandwidth and faster service.

Emerging market development impacts natural resources in developing world, resulting in increased pollution and related fatalities. A conservative US government with weakened environmental laws encouraged more business development in emerging foreign economies, with unintended consequences: “Rapacious demand for raw materials in those markets increased industrial forays into rainforests, river deltas, and other resource-rich areas”

After recessions in 2003 and 2008, the economy rebounded. New scientific evidence that the world was becoming warmer and wetter led to political debates about the causes and degree of warming. Increases in rodent and insect populations, along with appearance of new strains of drug-resistant infectious diseases in Latin America, Africa and SE Asia were observed. Increased wealth in emerging markets did little to curb infections and diseases such as dengue fever and malaria.

Virus 2010: The First Wave — The Brazilian Branco Virus

A new virus emerged, called Branco Virus after the Brazilian river near which it likely originated. It was thought to be a “new Ebola”, and “too virulent” to spread beyond a limited population if reasonable public health measures were taken. Computer models were temporarily reassuring, but the strain proved to be much more deadly than expected.

“By 2010 a viral pandemic of unprecedented scale arose. Thousands died without apparent contact with vectors of bodily fluids of the infected. Unlike most other deadly viruses, such as Ebola and Hanta, this new virus was highly contagious and could be spread human to human through airborne and/or aerosol contact…. It also had a much longer dormancy period than other viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs); victims of the virus often did not show symptoms for two or three weeks after infection. Thus, it was much easier to spread the virus unknowingly through travel and daily contact with others.”

“The symptoms of the new Virus were horrible and confusing. For the first 3–5 days, like those of a bad cold or flu, but then worsening to include violent coughing, difficult breathing and extremely high fever. Some patients bled in to the skin and other organs, a symptom often associated with septicemic plague. Patients usually died within 10 days of first symptoms, a period long enough to infect others and health care workers.”

“During 2010 alone, over 150 million people died worldwide as a direct result of the virus, most in emerging markets, but one million died in the U.S. In addition, another 100 million who did not die from the virus directly were so weakened that they died of pneumonia, TB, flu or other normally not life-threatening diseases.”

Impact: 2010–2015

The urban poor in the world’s megacities bore the brunt of fatalities. In the U.S. the elderly and unhealthy were the main victims. Healthcare systems were pushed to the limit. After 2015 society gradually became accustomed to the impact of the disease. In the developing countries, social interaction often devolved into chaos, and routine distrust. Conspiracy theories abounded, including claims of bio warfare, inflaming long standing ethnic and religious tensions and associated international conflicts. In the developing countries, civil society degenerated and saw the rise of demagogues and the choice between authoritarian leaders or anarchy. Developed countries struggled with civil libertarian issues.

In the U.S. historical political categories such as liberal and conservative were displaced as people moved into the Tech and Greens camps. By 2012 the virus had run its course, but societies were exhausted, with fear and mistrust embedded in the new status. The world economy continued in decline.

The U.S. and Europe closed borders as large population groups sought refuge. The disease fatality rate in Mexico was 8%, much higher than in the U.S., so people in Mexico became desperate. The U.S. built new border barriers and walls.

In the recovering economy Techs and Greens remained in conflict. There was a general unease about the future.

Second Wave: Re-emergence in 2015 — The Asian Branco Virus

A deadly and multi-strained version of the Branco virus emerged in Asia. This “Asian Branco” demonstrated the same highly contagious airborne infection transmittal as the original Amazon virus. This second cycle of disease was even more devastating than the first wave. Spreading worldwide, by 2016 over 250 million had died, including 9 million in the U.S. A new generation of alternative medicine cures emerged, many marketed by questionable sources.

Geopolitics during the Second Wave

Ultra fundamentalist Iranian Islamists take over Iraq and Afghanistan as part of a greater “Democratic Republic of Islam”, or DRI, and accuse Israel of bio warfare against muslims. Israel resorts to martial law and installs new border barriers along the Jordan. Japan and Taiwan come under siege from Southeast Asian refugees of countries whose leaders attempt to shift blame away from themselves by conspiracy theories about countries cooking up the disease.

The Techs narrowly defeat the Greens in the U.S. presidential election. The Greens offered a brand of populism that blamed technology for the “plagues.” The Greens proposed radical cuts in industrial activity, calling out “technological oppression of the planet, and demanded the government parcel out land to the healthy populace to start their lives over again in an agrarian setting. Techs ramped up internet technology and connectivity, and proposed net connectivity with no physical contact as the solution to the pandemic.

Third Wave: 2018 — The Java Virus

Another round of disease erupts in 2018: the “Java Virus.” Java was a variant strain of the Asian/Indonesian Virus (the “Indo Virus”) which mutated so rapidly that very few remained immune. 25 million more died in 2018.

End State 2020

The United States remains one of the major Viable States, but U.S. Society is highly divisive and fragmented. This divisiveness is mirrored by the Tech and Green movements. People live in “Enclaves” which are mostly run by Techs and professional technocrats. There are corresponding Ultra-Green counter-cultural enclaves, from which radical anti-technology violence sometimes emerges. Border security has become a large issue, with mass migration attempts from less fortunate neighbors outside of the Viable States.

The US economy continues downward; trade and commerce are down with economic metrics similar to the Great Depression. The only true global economy is between the Viable States. Physical trade is restricted to essential goods, including disinfected agricultural products, technology products and medical supplies. The agriculture sector is one of the few that flourishes, based on high-yield genetically modified foods. The Virtual marketplace is the only other principal economic bright spot.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is the biggest global power center; it certifies factories and facilities as disease free. The United Nations coordinates military security efforts with WHO programs.

The pandemic years have seen a shift in popular buying patterns from high consumption, luxury-loving lifestyles to the basics: adequate, essential, good-quality items.

People have become adjusted to fewer personal freedoms (as especially noticed by the Greens). Individuals carry a “MedID” used to enter anywhere, even one’s own home, and it is necessary to walk through an “AntiViro chamber” to go out of the house, or to pass in and out of enclaves. There is extensive security camera surveillance in high risk areas.

Social Ramifications

In general, people have chosen security over risk of disease. There is proliferation of personal weapon ownership. Organized crime in Latin America and Asia is weaker than before the pandemics, but localized crime has increased. The desperate poor engages in survival crime, even in the Viable States. Informal black markets for essential goods proliferate.

In the non-Treaty world of “non-Viable” countries, life is bleak: there are tribal wars and pockets of anarchy. The Mideast has not been hit as hard by disease, but now Islamists are on the rise. Eastern Europe and Balkans are under authoritarian rule. There has been military conflict between China and a unified Korea.