EPA shows how dense Seattle area's urban centers will get by 2100

How the Seattle region’s urban centers will grow by 2100



These maps ranging from 2010 to 2100 were created by the EPA as part of its Integrated Climate and Land use Scenarios project. The maps take into account projections of population and land-use that are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Click through to see the changes based on four scenarios. (Getty Images) less How the Seattle region’s urban centers will grow by 2100



These maps ranging from 2010 to 2100 were created by the EPA as part of its Integrated Climate and Land use Scenarios project. The maps take into ... more Image 1 of / 66 Caption Close EPA shows how dense Seattle area's urban centers will get by 2100 1 / 66 Back to Gallery

If the EPA's models for density in the Seattle region by 2100 are at all accurate, you won't have to worry about your home losing value. But, of course, that's if you own a home ... and good luck affording the taxes.

Basically, our region will continue to grow. We all know this. But how it grows, how dense the region's urban areas will get, does depend on several modeled outcomes. The EPA came up with the density models as part of its Integrated Climate and Land use Scenarios project. The maps above take into account projections of population and land-use that are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.

Related story: Study: Will climate change worsen Seattle's population boom?

Click through to see the changes based on these four scenarios:

A1 scenario — Rapid global economic development; Population rises rapidly until mid-century, then falls below replacement level; Fertility and average U.S. household size decrease; Both domestic and net international migration are high; Same population projection as the B1 scenario

A2 Scenario — Slower rate of economic growth; Restricted flow of people and ideas across regions; Fertility and average U.S. household size increase; Domestic migration is high, but net international migration is moderate; This is the highest ICLUS population projection and for most areas of the U.S. represents a "worst case" pattern of development.

B1 Scenario — Rapid social development in developing regions; Population rises rapidly until mid-century, then falls below replacement level; Fertility and average U.S. household size decrease; Domestic migration is low, but net international migration is high; This scenario consists of a low population projection (like A1) and a slightly compact development pattern. This results in the least altered landscape for most areas of the U.S.

B2 Scenario — Moderate economic growth; Strong social development; Moderate population projection; Slightly compact development pattern; Same population projection as the base case scenario

The difference are fairly subtle in the maps, but it is interesting to see what our region is in for ... you know, by the time our kids' kids are adults.

Jake Ellison can be reached at 206-448-8334 or jakeellison@seattlepi.com. Follow Jake on Twitter at twitter.com/Jake_News. Also, swing by and *LIKE* his page on Facebook. If Google Plus is your thing, check out our science coverage here.