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“Let me be perfectly clear: if Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair form the next government, they will take these benefits away from families, raise taxes, and put Canada back in a cycle of spiralling deficits. We only have to look at Greece to see where that plan leads.” — Stephen Harper, letter to Conservative MPs, July 20

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Joe Oliver told reporters Canada is not in a recession.

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“This feels like a period of slower growth, but not a period of contraction,” he said.

He also said that his budget is balanced.

“We remain positive and . . . we’re looking forward to a budgetary surplus this year.”

Oliver isn’t going to let the facts get in the way of the story he needs to tell. He can’t. The election hinges on it.

Later Tuesday, the parliamentary budget officer announced that on Wednesday morning he would release an analysis, using Bank of Canada figures, to determine whether Oliver’s budget will be balanced this year.

On Wednesday morning, Oliver beat the PBO to the punch, issuing a news release with the headline “The government remains on track to balance the budget in 2015.”

An hour later, the PBO released his projection: a $1-billion deficit, because Oliver’s projected $1.6-billion surplus depends on tax revenues that are shrinking as the economy does.