While some people are convinced that numbers never lie, statisticians also like to often say that “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure” too. In recent years we have seen statistics, polls and projections become more prevalent in all walks of life- as an example, Nate Silver became a super star in the United States after correctly predicting the results for almost all 50 states during Obama’s re election, and we have seen sites like Who Scored and Squawka become more and more popular with sports fans.









But can numbers and data really give the full picture on a player? I’ve been thinking a lot about this with all the recent talk on Alvaro Morata joining Manchester United- especially because of the exorbitant price that Real Madrid is asking for him. Every time we post an update on the situation, I’m bombarded with comments on the fact that it’s outrageous for a club to demand over 70 million for a player that only scored 15 goals over two seasons in Serie A, especially considering that Real Madrid bought him for 30 million- but while you would think numbers give a definitive answer, there’s always a context with a situation.

I believe the fact that so many fans play FIFA career mode and or Football Manager has created a legion of Twitter accountants. Not that long ago the financial aspect of a deal was much less important, now reporters who cover transfers aren’t only rated on their ability to predict moves, they are often judged on their ability to come as close to the official transfer fee and wage as well. But the value of players is very fluid, and while there are important factors like scarcity at position on the market, age, the competition from other clubs at the end of the day a player is worth what another club is willing to offer him- the rest ends up being just subjective opinions.







But is all this energy spent on judging transfer fees time well spent? Ultimately I see transfer fees being relevant in just two major ways. If a player flops the amount spent to acquire him becomes a sunk cost, just look at how many times Juventus had to loan out Mauricio Isla or Felipe Melo because they failed to live up to their price tags. By the same token if a player succeeds what he costs becomes almost irrelevant, I remember all the comments on how Juventus, Inter and Milan overspent on Dybala, Gagliardini and Romagnoli because they weren't’t established, now those three deals look like great bargains.



The other way transfer fees matter is if “overspending” on a player prevents you from addressing another position of need. This factor is obviously much more important for a club that doesn't’t have the financial means of Manchester United, as an example; Roma signing Iturbe and Milan going for Bertolacci certainly hurt them with other deals. But for Manchester United just consider that breaking the transfer fee record for Paul Pogba last August didn't’t stop them from signing the three other players Mourinho had promised at the beginning of the summer.



Now back to Morata- sure Real Madrid was able to bring him back to the Santiago Bernabeu for 30 million euro but that was only because the galacticos had a buy back clause with that price having been set two years prior. That was one of the reasons they were so eager to exercise the “recompra”- they knew that worse case scenario they had a player who was worth a lot more than what they paid. But after a season playing behind the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, Morata now wants an opportunity to start at the club level, especially with the World Cup just one year away.









While Morata’s goal totals on the surface don’t appear to be that impressive, it’s important to note that except for a fairly short stretch at Juventus he never was a full time starter (and this has way more to do with how well Dybala and Mandzukc fit together than a lack of ability at his end) at any club. More importantly, Morata’s track record in the Champions League is incredibly impressive- when Juventus went to the Champions League final two years ago, the Spanish striker was by far their most influential player with goals against Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, in the final against Barcelona and by creating the penalty that was decisive in the quarter finals against Monaco.

As a matter of fact you would be hard pressed to find any Juventus fan who doesn't’t rate Morata very highly. On the surface his statistics at Juve don’t appear that impressive, but the people who actually watched him play regularly rate him highly. This doesn't’t apply just to fans either, Antonio Conte has always kept Morata on his radar at Chelsea after being instrumental in his arrival in Turin right before he abruptly resigned as Juventus’ manager. Napoli had identified Morata as the ideal replacement for Higuain and now Mourinho has made him the priority for Manchester United after making a strong push for Mbappe’- there must be a reason why so many rate him highly even though his numbers simply don’t fully reflect his ability.



I just find that while statistics and projections can be valuable tools, in football the context of statistics is so important- just think of how number of tackles for a player has much more to do with the level of his teammates and the opponents rather than one’s own ability, more opportunities doesn't’t equal better player. Even Nate Silver went from being a genius to being heavily criticised for how he botched predicting the election results in both the Republican primary and general elections. Sometimes rather than just relying on numbers to judge it would be better to ask someone who has watched Morata what they think of him, vast majority of those people will agree with the way Mourinho and Conte view him.





David Amoyal