TOURISTS flock to Quebec each autumn to see its forests turn bright colours. The beautiful foliage, however, conceals a dark secret: the province’s tree-tappers are ripping off pancake-lovers. The Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers (FPAQ) tries to control the price of its product much as OPEC does that of oil. Its members—and all syrup producers in the province must join or risk having their output seized by FPAQ’s enforcers—are subject to quotas. Any excess syrup is put into FPAQ’s stockpile, and producers only get paid for it when it is sold, often years later. The intention is to keep prices high and stable by limiting supply. But like most cartels, FPAQ is sapping its own prospects.

Quebec is the Saudi Arabia of syrup, accounting for 71% of global production. But in a bittersweet echo of the oil price run-up of recent years, high prices have encouraged the development of new supplies. America’s maple-syrup harvest grew from 21m pounds (7.2m litres) in 2012 to 35m in 2014. The state of New York alone has more maple trees than all of Quebec, although few of them are tapped. America out-produced Canada until the 1930s; it could do so again.

Moreover, keeping maple syrup expensive limits demand and encourages substitution. A ready, and much cheaper, alternative exists in America, in the form of toppings made from corn syrup. Each year Americans drizzle (well, let’s face it, drown) their pancakes with as much of a single brand of such stuff, Aunt Jemima, as they do with all brands of maple syrup. Though the Federation publicises the health benefits of its wares, it has failed to develop new markets. Export volumes have hovered around 26m litres a year for the past decade. About 85% of FPAQ’s foreign sales go to Europe and America—the same proportion as in 2008.

Production is outpacing what the Federation can sell. Its “strategic reserve” has swollen to 25m litres of syrup—almost a year’s worth of sales. As America’s output grows, the organisation will have to cut its members’ quotas, stockpile ever more of Quebec’s harvest, or allow prices to fall. The first two options would cede market share to America while keeping prices helpfully high for rivals. But mimicking Saudi Arabia’s current strategy, of allowing oil prices to fall to drive higher-cost producers out of business, might not work for FPAQ either. The operating costs of maple plantations are very low, so the American upstarts would be unlikely to close shop.