OAKLAND — Faced with a multimillion-dollar budget shortfall and a steadily falling student enrollment, Oakland Unified School District officials are scrambling to identify up to 24 schools that may have to be closed over the next five years.

Although district officials stress they’ll try to spare as many schools as possible, the worst-case scenario could see almost a third of its 76 elementary, middle and high schools go empty.

The potential closures are part of the school board’s Community of Schools Policy, which is intended to promote longterm sustainability of Oakland classrooms. The policy stems from an Alameda County civil grand jury report that concluded the district will become insolvent if it continues to operate substantially more schools than its enrollment can justify.

Over the past 15 years, enrollment has dropped from about 54,000 to 37,000, according to the civil grand jury report. The district projects the number to drop even further, to 36,138 by 2023. Meanwhile, the district is beginning the 2019-20 fiscal year with a $30.3 million projected shortfall.

When the potential closures were announced at the board’s Nov. 14 meeting, Superintendent Kyla Johnson-Trammell said the Community of Schools Policy will result in students obtaining a better education because the money will be stretched among fewer schools.

“At the end of the day this isn’t about saving a dollar, it’s about how we can strategically reduce our footprint and increase quality, because that is really the call from many of our parents and students,” Johnson-Trammell said.

Oakland Unified officials determined the city has lost so many students over the decades it could stand to close a couple dozen schools over the next five years, although Johnson-Trammell emphasized at the Nov. 14 meeting it hasn’t officially proposed doing so.

District officials’ initial analysis did not factor where preschools, special education programs and charter schools will be located once campuses are closed.

When it revisits the policy next month and starts to identify which schools to close, the board likely will receive a lot of pushback from parents, teachers and community activists, who already have declared their opposition and plan to conduct a rally at Wednesday’s meeting. The policy originally was scheduled to be discussed then until postponed to February.

“The focus needs to be on building up our community schools, not shutting them down,” said Keith Brown, president of the Oakland Education Association.

District spokesman John Sasaki confirmed that Roots International Academy in East Oakland, which serves grades six through eight, is one of those being considered. Roots International had 309 students enrolled during the 2017-18 school year, 133 of which were English learners, and averages about 14 students to every teacher, according to Ed-Data.org.

“Roots is a school in East Oakland that serves the black and brown community. It’s important that we have thriving neighborhood schools in Oakland, especially in the flatlands,” Brown said. “Our priorities need to be supporting our neighborhood schools and ensuring that they have the resources that students need.”

In their analysis, district officials calculated the minimum number of schools needed to operate based on projected enrollment over the next five years and the capacity of individual campuses. The analysis — presented at the November school board meeting — split schools into five regions: central, east, northeast, northwest, and west.

The central region — including the neighborhoods surrounding Lake Merritt and the San Antonio neighborhood — has seven elementary schools, one school serving kindergarten through eighth grade, one middle school and one high school. The district has determined that one elementary school in that region could be cut and one could be consolidated into another, according to the presentation.

The east region — from Fruitvale to the city’s southeastern border and southwest of Interstate 580 — has 20 elementary schools, two K-8 schools, seven middle schools, three schools serving grades six through 12 and two high schools. District officials said six elementary schools could be closed and five could be consolidated with other schools. They also determined two middle schools could be closed and three could share campuses.

Of the two high schools in the east region — Castlemont and Fremont — one could be closed and the other could accommodate the closed campus’ students, according to the presentation.

The northeast region — including the Laurel district and the Oakland hills — has seven elementary schools, one school serving kindergarten through eighth grade, one middle school and one high school. District officials determined three schools could be closed.

No schools are projected to close in the northwest region — which spans the Claremont and Rockridge neighborhoods — which has 10 elementary schools, one school serving kindergarten through eighth grade, three middle schools and one high school.

The west region — spanning the neighborhoods west of Lake Merritt up to Emeryville — has four elementary schools, not including Lafayette, which will close after the next school year. It also has two middle schools and one high school. Officials determined that area could lose one elementary school and one middle school.

Despite the opposition, the district may have to close at least some of the schools to receive emergency state funds under California’s Education Trailer Bill, which was signed last year. Oakland is poised to receive $34.7 million from the state over the next three years, but the money hinges on the district doing its part to reach fiscal solvency. The district needs to submit annual progress reports to the state on its efforts to address its deficit; those reports will be certified by the Alameda County Office of Education and an independent Fiscal Crisis Management Assistance Team.

Brown fears that closing schools could lead to more charter schools coming to Oakland. He chalks up Oakland Unified’s drop in enrollment in part to charter schools.

GO Public Schools, a nonprofit education group that advocates for both charters and district schools, supported the policy. Mirella Rangel of GO said in a statement that the policy will lead to Oakland “moving out of the charter-district wars to one of collaboration in service of students.” The policy requires that charter schools be factored into the redesign of the district.

“Oakland is charting a new course that I’m sure other cities will follow,” Rangel said.