If you are unnerved by the prospect of the Trump administration responding to the almost Biblical flooding in Houston from Hurricane Harvey, be aware that Congress will have to weigh in almost immediately upon their return from recess. Short-term appropriation of disaster relief, which numerous Texas Republicans opposed after Hurricane Sandy but which even Ted Cruz will surely want now, is in some ways the easy part. In an instance of coincidental timing, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) expires at the end of September, at a time when payouts will spike perhaps like never before.

There’s perhaps no better case study in how stubbornly America refuses to engage with climate change—and the hard choices that come along with it—than federal flood insurance, a massive, wasteful, and unnecessary giveaway of a program. We simply refuse to face the reality of increased flood risk, the same way we refuse to radically alter our energy mix to reduce carbon pollution. Instead, taxpayers shoulder the costs and commit to rebuilding in the same dangerous areas.

Just to be clear, yes, climate change makes extreme flooding more likely. Hotter air and ocean temperatures fuel larger storms and intensify precipitation, as the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report confirms. And sea level rise almost by definition increases flood risk, due to more water volume and higher inland storm surges. Combine that with the fact that almost 40 percent of Americans live near the coast, and Houston, we have a problem.

Speaking of Houston—the nation’s fourth-largest city with a metro area of more than 6.6 million people—much of it sits in a flood plain. The city suffered a “500-year flood,” defined as one with a 0.2 percent chance of occurring in a given year based on past experience, in 2015. It had another 500-year flood in 2016. And it’s experiencing something much bigger than a 500-year flood right now. Maybe it’s time to admit that past performance is no longer any indication of future results.

But the National Flood Insurance Program is, of course, entirely geared to past performance. Created in 1968, it provides mandatory insurance in areas labeled a flood risk, based on maps created by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). In theory, homeowners pay premiums to fund claims, making the program self-supporting. But severe weather events have overwhelmed that plan. Hurricane Katrina (and two others in 2005) triggered $19 billion in borrowing from the Treasury, and Superstorm Sandy added another $10 billion in claims. Simply put, flood insurance costs less than it should.