How things change in a year. Stanford went into last year’s Big Game needing a win to secure a berth in the Pac-12 title game. It won by 50 and wound up going the Rose Bowl.

This time even the Cactus Bowl would be an oasis in the desert for the thirsty Cardinal (5-5, 3-4 Pac-12). But they’ll need that elusive sixth win to become bowl eligible.

Failing to reach a bowl game would mean they’d have to lose not only to Cal on Saturday at 1 p.m. at Memorial Stadium but also next week’s game at UCLA. That would mean ending the season with a four-game losing streak.

If that happened, nose tackle David Parry said Tuesday, the season would be a failure. Their backs are against the wall, he said. “Every game’s a must win.’’

Head coach David Shaw prefers to look at the Cal game as a chance to keep the Axe for a fifth straight year. His fifth-year senior haven’t lost to the Bears.

“That’s the real motivation for this week – we have a trophy on the line,’’ he said. “This is our closest rival.’’

Aside from bowl eligibility, he said, “Winning this game has a chance to be special. That’s what we’re gunning for.’’

Under first-year coordinator Art Kaufman, Cal has improved defensively from the team that absorbed a 63-13 beating at Stanford Stadium last year, he said.

“They were really young last year – a lot of freshmen and sophomores,’’ Shaw said. “This year you see they’re causing more turnovers.’’

What he didn’t say was that Cal ranks 120th out of 125 FBS teams in points allowed, next to last in yards allowed and dead last in passing yards allowed — by 53 yards over the next worst defense.

He said there’s no danger of his players anticipating another 50-point blowout. “To say it nicely, we haven’t earned the right to be overconfident about anything right now,’’ Shaw said. “We are trying to find a way to scrap and claw and get a win.

“A lot of great things happened last year that have not happened this year,’’ he said. The aim is simply to “execute at a high level and make plays and find that good feeling back in the locker room holding the Axe.’’

Stanford’s defense, ranked seventh in the nation in points allowed (16.5 average) and fourth in yards allowed (277.7), faces an offense that has scored 50 or more points three times.

“They’re the fourth best passing team in the country, and they can run the ball as well,’’ outside linebacker Kevin Anderson said. “It’s going to be a challenge for us.’’

Shaw said he has been impressed with Bears quarterback Jared Goff since he played at Marin Catholic. “With the points he’s putting up, he’s got absolutely no fear, no hesitation,’’ he said. “He’ll throw the ball with guys in his face. … He’s had as much experience as a lot older guys, and he’s only in his second year.’’

The weather forecast is for a 90 percent chance of rain on Saturday morning. That won’t do anything to diminish Stanford’s enthusiasm, Shaw said.

Wet weather might lead to more turnovers, however, and the Cardinal have not fared well on that score this season. Next to Colorado’s 20 turnovers, Stanford’s 19 are the most in the Pac-12. Meanwhile, the defense has gotten just nine takeaways, including a conference-low three fumble recoveries.

Briefly: Fullback Patrick Skov, the Cardinal’s main short-distance runner, is likely to miss his second straight game with an injury. … Safety Kyle Olugbode, who also missed the Utah game, is expected back and will rotate with Zach Hoffpauir.