WASHINGTON – Michigan could be facing between 1,000 and 4,500 deaths from the novel coronavirus even with mitigation efforts fully in place, according to a model cited by President Donald Trump and his medical advisers on Tuesday.

The worst is expected in the next two weeks, Trump said, noting that a spike in cases in southeastern Michigan caught his administration and others by surprise.

"Detroit is having a really hard time," Trump said at a briefing of his Coronavirus Task Force at the White House. "It came out of nowhere. ... This could be a hell of a bad two weeks."

Trump and his experts say, however, that social distancing and other more drastic measures to stop the spread ordered by governors and other officials are working, and that the death toll will be far worse if people don't practice them, as recommended by the White House, at least through the end of April.

The model projects a median number of about 85,000 deaths across the U.S. with most coming between now and June 1, though it also suggests the number could be as low as about 40,000 and as high as 160,000. Trump and other White House officials said the model could actually be low, however, saying there could be between 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, based on what has been seen in other countries, including Italy.

The peak in the number of deaths for Michigan is expected to come in the next 10 days, the model predicts, with 164 deaths in the state on April 11, though that is only a statistical projection and could be higher or lower. It also could be impacted by how well residents continue take steps to avoid spreading the virus.

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The median of the model's range of deaths caused by coronavirus in Michigan would be 3,007, with almost all between now and the end of April if the model is correct. It was cited Tuesday by Dr. Deborah Birx, a top official on Trump's task force.

"The surge is coming," Trump said, adding that he spoke with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer about sending more supplies to the state. Metro Detroit has been noted by experts for its increasing rate of cases with 259 deaths and more than 7,600 cases as of Tuesday afternoon.

"This is going to be one of the roughest two or three weeks we've ever had in this country," Trump said. "When you see the sort of numbers that we're witnessing, we've never seen anything like that."

The president urged all Americans to continue taking precautions. He described it as "a great national trial."

The model was created by Chris Murray, a researcher at the University of Washington at Seattle, and is based on data already taken from cases and death rates in New York, New Jersey and elsewhere. It also indicates Michigan could need an additional 1,800 ventilators and 1,500 more intensive care unit beds.

Murray formerly worked for the World Health Organization and is director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

"The question is what would have happened if we did nothing," said Trump, whose advisers say social distancing and stay-at-home orders issued in Michigan and many other states are working. "Up to 2.2 million people ... would have died if we did nothing."

Contact Todd Spangler:tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler. Read more onMichigan politics and sign up for ourelections newsletter.