Few people can divide a room in Oil country the way Nail

Yakupov can. The former 1st Overall pick has been a lightning rod

for criticism since he arrived in Edmonton and that hasn’t changed one bit. He’s

earned a reputation as a weak defensive player and that’s been supported by

number as well as by eye. Well, that is, it has up until this year.

Unlike all the other high profile picks whose defensive

deficiencies were ignored and whose minutes were padded, Yak has had a

different experience with the Oilers. Yak has been largely played on the 3rd

line and asked to prove he can play a 200 foot game before earning more ice.

He lead the Oilers in goal scoring in his rookie year. He

started the next on the 3rd line. His relationship with Eakins

boiled to a point where it seemed a trade request was going to be imminent. The

Oilers moved on from Eakins and Yak started to produce again under Nelson, but

he’s always a misstep away from playing on the 3rd line or lower.

This season has been interesting, to say the least, for Nail

Yakupov. He started the season on a line with Korpikoski and Lander, but that

was short lived. The much anticipated McDavid-Hall duo wasn’t getting the job

done the way we all thought it would in our heads and McLellan needed to try

something different. He went with Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov and lightning got

caught in the bottle.

To my eye, Yakupov came into the year with a new focus on

playing in his own zone and moving the puck through the neutral zone. He didn’t

turn into Patrice Bergeron by any means, but he is back-checking more effectively

than we’ve seen in the past. He came to the NHL based on his skills at the

other end of the rink, however it looks like he’s figuring out that in the NHL

you have to know how to play in your own end in order to even get to the other.

THE NUMBERS

Naturally I don’t want to rely on only my own observations

with regards to Yakupov’s improved play. The facts are that after this many

years in the NHL, Yak has developed a reputation that is going to need more

than my word that he looks better to overcome. I mean, after every game I have

people finding me to tell me how terrible number 10 was even if he was the 1st

star. It’s a bizarre world.

What isn’t bizarre is how Nail Yakupov’s shot attempt

statistics have contributed to his bad reputation. The eyeball test crowd who

concluded that the Russian winger was lacking can take heart in knowing that

the underlying metrics supported their conclusions. Yak had abysmal possession

metrics for his first several seasons.

However, the metrics are telling a very different story in

2015-2016. I think it’s worth taking a look at.

Here is Nail Yakupov’s Corsi For percentage through his NHL

career. We can see incremental growth through his first three seasons, but he’s

well below anything resembling positive. This year he’s a positive player for

first time in his career. That is to say that when he’s on the ice the Oilers

are spending more time creating shot attempts than they are defending against

them for the first time in his career.

The image above is Yakupov’s Corsi For per 60 minutes and

Corsi Against per 60 minutes separated from each other so we can see how they’ve

related to each other over the years. Yakupov’s has hovered around 60 shot

attempts against per 60 minutes for the majority of his career while averaging

in the high 40’s in shot attempts for. That’s not good enough.

This year we finally see Yak with significantly improved

shot attempt suppression while generating more than he ever has before. It is

such a drastic change that it warrants attention. Since he returned from injury

he has performed particularly well, even though he’s been relegated to the 3rd

or 4th lines to start the games. He has been Edmonton’s top forward

by Corsi percentage in 4 of his last 5 games!

Looking at his With Or Without You numbers, it doesn’t appear

as though Yak’s new possession performance is being driven by anything obvious.

Yak’s most common linemate has been Benoit Pouliot. Together they have a 49.9%

CF, apart Yakupov has 54.8% CF and Pouliot has 50.3% CF. The second most common

linemate has been McDavid. Together they have a 53% CF, apart Yakupov has 51.3%

CF and McDavid has 46% CF.

In fact, every skater who has played with Yakupov has a

lower Corsi percentage without Yak than Yak has without them except for

Davidson and the trio of Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell. If it isn’t Yakupov simply

playing the most responsible hockey of his life then the answer just isn’t obvious

to me.

There is something different happening when Nail Yakupov is

on the ice for the Oilers that hasn’t been happening in the past. The team is

spending more time attacking than they are defending for the first time in his

NHL career. Edmonton isn’t getting taken out to the wood-chipper when Yak takes

his shifts. On top of that, it doesn’t look like his success is directly attributable

to Connor McDavid or any other player.

Is that enough to change his reputation? No, probably not.

But we should keep an eye on these metrics and keep them in mind when pundits

talk about his defensive woes. As much as this might be a flash in the pan, it

could also be a corner turned. Either way, Yakupov deserves recognition for the

positive things he’s done so far.

All numbers courtesy of stats.hockeyanalysis.com



