Welcome to impeachment day. Wall Street doesn't care. Presented by U.S. Bank

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Quick Fix

Welcome to impeachment day — The House of Representatives is expected to impeach a sitting president for just the third time in American history sometime this evening. And Wall Street is not going to care even one little bit. The political ramifications for President Trump (could it drive up his base?) and moderate Democrats (are they toast?) are potentially massive.

But from an economic and market perspective it is an absolute non-event. Impeachment has been expected for months. As has Senate acquittal. Trump is going nowhere before January 2021 (if then) and his policies aren’t going anywhere either. The China deal is pretty much done. USMCA is pretty much done. The budget deal is pretty much done. So who cares? (For an economic perspective.)

Wedbush’s Steve Massocca tells MM: “This just isn’t going to have any impact on the market at all. Democrats know they aren’t removing the president and Wall Street knows it. And I’m not saying Wall Street likes the man, but they like the policies.”

China deal has little impact on sentiment — Via new Morning Consult consumer confidence data out this morning: “News of phase one of the U.S.-China trade deal did little to improve American consumer confidence late last week, according to Morning Consult’s latest Economic Intelligence report. …

“From a long-term perspective, consumer confidence is roughly where it was when President Trump first threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese consumer goods back in May.”

A message from U.S. Bank Banks must do more and better to reverse systemic inequality. At U.S. Bank, that starts by committing $116 million to address social and economic inequities and elevating Black voices and Black-owned businesses. Because we’re small enough to care – and big enough to make a difference. Learn more.

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

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Driving the Day

House expected to vote in favor of two articles of impeachment against President Donald J. Trump after six hours of debate and potential procedural votes from Republicans. That would put the votes sometime around 7 or 8 p.m. just as Trump is set to hold a MAGA rally in Battle Creek, Mich. Could be a wild night.

BILLIONAIRE’S ROW —Via Bloomberg: “New York’s Billionaires’ Row is living up to its name. More houses were bought for north of $25 million on Manhattan’s 57th Street in the last five years than on any other road in the world, according to a study published on Tuesday by broker Knight Frank.”

THE WEIRD STORY BEHIND TALKING BIZ NEWS — Via Yahoo’s Andy Serwer.

HERE COMES EUROPEAN PROTECTIONISM — Our Hans von der Burchard, Jacopo Barigazzi and Kalina Oroschakoff in Brussells: “After decades of championing the dissolution of barriers and borders, Europe is battening down the hatches.

TRUMP SLASHES PUERTO RICO FUNDING — Our Rachana Pradhan scoops: “Trump … intervened to cut the federal government's Medicaid funding for Puerto Rico as part of a larger government spending deal, according to four sources with knowledge of the discussions.

“The budget deal unveiled by lawmakers this week allocates up to $5.7 billion in Medicaid funds for the island over two years — instead of $12 billion over four years that Republican and Democratic leaders on two key congressional committees had endorsed.”

WARREN HITS PE AND HEDGE FUNDS … AGAIN — Our Victoria Guida: “Elizabeth Warren … broadened her proposed crackdown on private equity firms and hedge funds by saying she would subject them, as well as real estate service providers and company formation agents, to anti-money laundering regulations.”

MORE ON BOEING’S IMPACT — RSM Joseph Brusuelas: “The indeterminate halt to Boeing 737 Max production in January 2020 will likely shave 0.5 percent off first quarter US GDP next year. The economic damage will likely be noted via the inventory channel, factory orders, industrial production and likely headcount among aircraft suppliers.”

DON’T HYPE THE CHINA DEAL — Mohamed A. El-Erian on Bloomberg View: “[A] favorable medium-term outcome is unlikely to materialize for several reasons. First, the deal doesn’t address in a decisive way long-standing grievances that the U.S. (and other countries) have about certain Chinese trade practices.

“It’s essentially a transactional deal that exchanges higher Chinese imports of U.S. goods for removing the threat of a Dec. 15 increase in the level and scope of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.”

WHAT’S AHEAD IN 2020 — Via Neuberger Berman: “Political risk and ‘fiscal dysfunction’ — the lack of fiscal policy to match the economic environment — will not be new to 2020. But with a U.S. election added to the mix and central banks less able to mask this dysfunction, next year these risks could emerge as the primary drivers of market volatility and value opportunity.”

Markets

WALL STREET SEES SLIGHT GAINS — AP’s Alex Veiga and Stan Choe: “Wall Street extended its milestone-shattering run Tuesday with modest gains for stocks, nudging the major indexes to more record highs. The S&P 500 had its fifth gain in a row. The benchmark index and the Nasdaq closed at new highs for the fourth straight day. The Dow … also closed at a record high, it’s second milestone this week. Banks and companies that rely on consumer spending led the way higher, outweighing losses in technology and health care stocks. Treasury yields gave back some of their gains from a day earlier, while the price of crude oil continued its recent march higher.”

DOW HEAVYWEIGHT BOEING ENDS STRONG DECADE WITH A WHIMPER — Reuters’ Lewis Krauskopf: “Dow stalwart Boeing Co’s shares have nearly erased their gains for 2019 as the plane maker grapples with the fallout from its sidelined 737 MAX jetliner. Boeing shares fell as much as 2 percent on Tuesday after the company said it would suspend production of its best-selling 737 MAX in January.”

Fly Around

TRUMP’S TRADE DEALS RAISE ECONOMIC BARRIERS — NYT’s Ana Swanson: “For years, America’s trade agreements have tried to break down economic barriers between nations … Trump’s trade deals have turned that approach on its head. Mr. Trump’s new trade deal with China promises to lower some of the walls Beijing has erected for foreign companies — including opening its financial markets, streamlining imports of American agriculture and offering greater protection for intellectual property.”

FED OFFICIALS SEE LITTLE NEED TO CHANGE RATES IN 2020 — Reuters’ Jonnelle Marte: “Two Federal Reserve policymakers on Tuesday made clear that they back the central bank’s current stance, echoing words by other policymakers last week that interest rates are in a sweet spot heading into 2020 and that the bar to cutting or raising them will be high”

CORPORATE TAX PAYMENTS PLUNGE — Yahoo’s Rick Newman's Yahoo Finance reports that corporate tax payments will account for only about 3.5% of federal revenue this year, which will the lowest portion ever, in data going back to 1929”

CHINA GETS BULLISH — South China Morning Post’s Orange Wang: “An increasingly upbeat mood is emerging in Beijing about growth prospects after a surprise improvement in November's economic indicators and a trade war truce with the United States.”

ICYMI: BLOOOMBERG BLITZES CALI — Our Christopher Cadelago: “While the rest of the presidential field ping-ponged between early voting states last week, Mike Bloomberg was hobnobbing with political luminaries in his own personal Iowa: the state of California.

“Bloomberg has been carpet bombing this Super Tuesday state with an unprecedented blitz of introductory TV ads, homing in on its glut of delegates and its unique mechanics that allow independents to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary.”

BUTTIGIEG LEFT OFF BUNDLERS — Our Maggie Severns: “Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign omitted more than 20 high-level fundraisers from a list of top ‘bundlers’ it disclosed to the public last week.

“The public list of bundlers, featuring more than 100 people who have raised at least $25,000 for Buttigieg, was meant to bring a close to more than a week of feuding between Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren over campaign transparency. But the list left off a number of people the Buttigieg campaign had previously touted as top donors in an internal campaign fundraising report obtained by POLITICO.”

For Your Radar

DEBATE IS ON! — Our Quint Forgey: “The PBS NewsHour/POLITICO debate among Democratic presidential candidates appears poised to proceed as scheduled on Thursday, after the national party organization helped broker a last-minute resolution to a labor dispute that had threatened to upend the televised forum.”

TRANSITIONS — Per release: “GBX Group LLC, a leading real estate firm specializing in preserving historic real estate in urban markets, announces Seth Unger as its Vice President of Government & Public Affairs.

“Unger, a veteran policy and communications advisor who served most recently as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, will oversee a host of strategic initiatives for GBX.”

A message from U.S. Bank: It’s time for banks to acknowledge the racial wealth gap and work to reduce it. Our headquarters market of Minneapolis was the epicenter of recent social justice activism, forcing us all to reckon with the glaring disparities caused by systemic racism. At U.S. Bank, we’re making an immediate impact by advancing Black leaders in our organization, developing meaningful business relationships with Black-owned businesses and customers, and denouncing systemic racism. To reinforce our commitment, we are making an initial investment of $116 million to address social and economic inequities, and our senior management team has elevated our diversity office to the corporate Managing Committee. Chipping away at systemic racism is not the job of one person, one company, or one industry. But that is how it starts, with each of us. One by one, each of us becomes all of us. Learn more.

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