Tipperary and the next election May 29, 2015

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics

The two three seaters of Tipperary North and Tipperary South united to form the new five seater Tipperary Constituency. A part of North Tipp has gone to the new Offaly constituency. It is thought that this area was an area where Labours Alan Kelly would have polled well.

Currently the sitting TD’s are Noel Coonan and Tom Hayes of Fine Gael, Alan Kelly of Labour , Seamus Healy of WUAG as well as Independents Mattie McGrath and Michael Lowry. All are due to contest the next election.

So we have a redraw, going from 6 to 5 seats and all six sitting TDs due to contest. Fianna Fail won 3 of the six seats available in 2007 but lost out in both North and South in 2011, so they will be looking to win back at least the one seat.

Sinn Fein won a seat in each of the five council areas in 2014 and if the polls are correct they should be in with a chance here. Their main problem is that although their councillors would be known in some areas they wouldn’t have a Countywide profile so it may be difficult to win a seat here. This could also be a place where Renua could be in with a chance were they to attract a well known respected candidate. So thats at least nine candidates with decent prospects of winning a seat.

Talking to Tipp contacts there is an assumption that Michael Lowry and Tom Hayes should be safe. After that it’s anybodys …..

Fianna Fail have selected former ICMSA head Jackie Cahill ,he has should have a good chance (however the area gone to Offaly would have been good FF country).

Tom Hayes has been a TD longer and is better placed geographically of the two Fine Gael TDs, so he is more likely than Noel Coonan to hold on.

Alan Kelly should be in trouble and Labour only won the one seat in Tipperary in the Local Elections, part of his Nenagh hinterland has moved to the new Offaly constituency what could save him is if Fine Gael lose a seat it could be those Fine Gael transfers that get him over the line.

Mattie McGrath has a high profile and would be ‘a good constituency TD’ and there are plenty of FF gene pool votes in Tipp. His base in Newcastle in the South West of Tipp may do him no favours geographically.

For Fianna Fail Jackie Cahill has a good chance, although it is suspected that Siobhan Ambrose and/ or Michael Smith jnr will be added to the ticket. They certainly need a candidate in the South. There should be an FF seat here but it is one hell of a competitive constituency and Mattie McGrath and Michael Lowry may hoover up potential FF support .

Seamus Healy , who lost his seat in 2007 before regaining it in 2011, is probably vulnerable, especially with the Geographical situation of Clonmel and WUAG only winning one Council seat at the Local Elections. The scrapping of Clonmel Borough Council was also a blow for WUAG ….. which has led to unlikely talk of him running for Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein will poll well but will find it hard to win a seat as they have no particularly high profile candidates . Were Healy to run for Sinn Fein he would hold his seat easily. An unlikely scenario but you never know. That said he could probably rely on some Sinn Fein transfers depending on the candidate they select.

A bloodbath of a constituency so. I have a funny feeling it will end up being Lowry, Hayes, McGrath, Healy and somehow Alan Kelly will win a seat…….. but I could be totally wrong