"[T]here are inescapable similarities in the ways that Bush and Obama handled their crises, and those actions changed the public's view of their presidencies. Specifically:

Their mismanagement raised questions about competence, compounded by deceptive and tone-deaf responses that undermined their credibility.

The crises came after a series of unrelated events that had already caused doubt among voters about the presidents. To borrow a cliché, Katrina was the last straw.

Their personal and job-approval ratings tanked.

Their dwindling political capital was squandered by defensive, insular advisers who refused to recognize the dangers.

They both ran reelection campaigns without a positive forward-looking message and made the races primarily about their opponent. That left them little political capital going into their second term.

Bush never recovered. Obama might still have time to learn history's hard lessons."