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This article was published 28/12/2015 (1731 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Premier Greg Selinger says it’s no surprise to see his NDP in third place in Manitoba, but predicted voters will re-embrace his party once they take a closer look at the other options.

A Probe Research poll of voting intentions commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press early this month had the Progressive Conservatives retaining commanding the lead they’ve held since NDP support began to drop in 2012.

The results, published by the Free Press on Saturday, suggest the PCs are the party of preference for 43 per cent of Manitobans, followed by the Liberals with 29 per cent and the incumbent NDP at 22 per cent. The poll of 1,000 adults had a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

If those numbers remain in place when the provincial election is held on April 19, the NDP would almost certainly cede power to the Progressive Conservatives.

Selinger acknowledged the numbers, but still expressed optimism his NDP can win its fifth straight mandate.

"It’s not entirely surprising," Selinger said Monday in an interview, stating — as he has several times in recent months — that his government has made mistakes.

"We have no intention of raising the PST, again," said the premier, categorically ruling out a rise above the eight per cent rate set in 2013.

The premier also acknowledged that the Manitoba Liberal Party has become more popular at the same time support for the NDP declined. Historically, strong Liberal support in Manitoba has led to electoral defeat for the NDP, as centre-left voters tend to choose between the two parties.

"The Liberals are definitely picking up support at this stage of the game," Selinger said. "That’s due in part to disappointment with us and in due in part for the support for the federal government."

The premier said the NDP can win back voters once they take a closer look at Liberal and Progressive Conservative policies, which he claimed would result in financial ruin and the privatization of services.

The Tories, meanwhile, downplayed the Probe Research poll, insisting it would be foolish to consider themselves ahead more than three months before an election.

"We’re not measuring the drapes," said Progressive Conservative House Leader Kelvin Goertzen, noting he’s experienced election losses when wins were expected.

"I know what it feels like to be congratulated for a victory at the beginning of the night and watching your leader resign at the end," he said Monday in an interview, referring to the 2011 provincial election, which spelled the political demise of former Tory leader Hugh McFadyen..

In that race, the Progressive Conservatives not only failed to assume power, but watched as Selinger increased the NDP’s plurality. In the popular vote, however, the two parties were very close, with the NDP winning 46 per cent versus 44 per cent for the Tories.

Goertzen acknowledged his party does tend to win power when its popular support winds up in the 40 to 45 per cent range, but refused to comment on a poll suggesting Liberals and NDP are now splitting the centre-left vote.

He insisted the Tories cannot afford to be distracted by the other parties and must focus on presenting themselves as a desirable alternative and ensuring their ground game is ready for election day.

The Liberals, meanwhile, have Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives in their sights. Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari, emboldened by the Probe poll, is framing the election as a two-way race.

"The real options are going to be for Manitobans to decide between the Pallister Conservatives or a moderate, progressive, fiscally responsible, socially just Liberal party," Bokhari said Sunday in an interview. "I think that’s really what the polls mean."

St. Paul’s College political scientist Chris Adams said Bokhari sits at the centre of the political conversation right now, thanks to headline-grabbing announcements, but wondered whether voters are merely parking their votes with the Liberals before the election.

Adams also said the Liberals appear to have a stronger crop of candidates this time out and that may allow the party to hold on to support on election day.

bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca

— with files from Leah Hansen