POLITICO Playbook: Trump confronts a dire forecast he can’t spin away Presented by

President Donald Trump is trying to convince the American people he has a handle on a situation that, by his own team’s metrics and projections, has spiraled wildly out of control. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

AMERICAN HISTORY TELLS US that citizens tend to rally around our political leaders in times of national crisis. But those crises -- terrorist attacks, wars and other global disturbances -- often involve unpredictable actions by volatile and hostile foreign actors.

IN THIS CASE, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION saw a virus shut down cities of tens of millions of people, and told us that it simply couldn’t and wouldn’t happen here. Now it is. Just three weeks ago, President DONALD TRUMP suggested to reporters in the Capitol that the coronavirus -- which has now killed more people than did the attacks on Sept. 11 -- would just “go away” so we should stay “calm.” The weather would take care of it. Medicine would come quickly. Some elixir would make it all disappear.

NOW, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION is saying that its policies would likely result in the deaths of between 100,000 and nearly a quarter-million Americans.

THE PRESIDENT IS trying to convince the American people he has a handle on a situation that, by his own team’s metrics and projections, has spiraled wildly out of control.

EVEN THE ROSIEST OF SCENARIOS have 50,000 Americans dying from this virus. That’s roughly the American death toll of the Vietnam War. THE WHITE HOUSE is left making the argument that, in the absence of its policies, if the administration did nothing, millions would have died. Of course, no one was suggesting the administration do nothing.

TRUMP’S PREDICTIONS were wrong. Speaking Tuesday from the White House, TRUMP said it’s easy to be negative, but he’d rather be positive and a “cheerleader” for the United States.

AND NOW, 221 days before Americans vote, TRUMP will be running with the backdrop of hospitals teeming with diseased patients, body bags being loaded onto refrigerated trucks, the economy halted and an endless supply of video clips showing the president seemingly oblivious that this could all be heading our way.

NYT, front-page banner: “GRIM TOLL PROJECTED, EVEN WITH DISTANCING”

NEW POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL -- “Poll: Trump’s coronavirus bounce fizzles,” by Steven Shepard: “More voters say the Trump administration isn’t doing enough to combat the coronavirus outbreak, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. The survey, conducted immediately before President Donald Trump announced a 30-day extension of his physical and social distancing guidelines ‘to slow the spread’ of Covid-19, shows 47 percent of voters feel the administration isn’t doing enough in response to the outbreak, greater than the 40 percent who feel the administration is doing the right amount.

“Two weeks ago, 43 percent said the administration wasn’t doing enough in the days following the initial measures deployed to reduce the impacts of the virus, while 39 percent said it was doing the right amount. While the new poll was conducted before the extension of the household isolation recommendations, it comes as other polls suggest the positive marks Trump earned for his early response to the crisis are turning more negative.” POLITICO

Good Wednesday morning. HAPPY APRIL, and remember, if something seems amiss, it’s April Fools’ Day today.

NEW: TRICKLE-DOWN ECONOMICS … As industries across the country continue to try and weather the economic storm in the wake of the coronavirus, K Street is starting to feel the pinch. Most companies hire consultants with a standard 30-day out clause in their lobbying contracts. Notices have started to go out this week telling companies that April is their last month on retainer, according to multiple lobbyists.

ANOTHER TOUGH DAY EXPECTED ON WALL STREET -- “U.S. Futures and Global Stocks Fall After Dire Quarter,” by WSJ’s Frances Yoon and Avantika Chilkoti: “U.S. stock futures declined Wednesday, after leading benchmarks closed out their worst quarter since the global financial crisis. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 ticked down 2.6% early Wednesday. European stocks also declined. The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 2.9% with Germany’s DAX benchmark down 3.2% and the FTSE 100 down 3.5%.”

-- THE UNITED NATIONS, in a new report, calls for “a large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 percent of global GDP.”

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DEPT. OF CROSSED WIRES? -- “Pence task force freezes coronavirus aid amid backlash,” by Natasha Bertrand, Gabby Orr, Daniel Lippman and Nahal Toosi: “Last week, a Trump administration official working to secure much-needed protective gear for doctors and nurses in the United States had a startling encounter with counterparts in Thailand. The official asked the Thais for help—only to be informed by the puzzled voices on the other side of the line that a U.S. shipment of the same supplies, the second of two so far, was already on its way to Bangkok.

“Trump aides were alarmed when they learned of the exchange, and immediately put the shipment on hold while they ordered a review of U.S. aid procedures. Crossed wires would only confuse our allies, they worried, or worse—offend them. And Americans confronting a surging death toll and shortages of medical equipment back home would likely be outraged.

“Vice President Mike Pence soon realized another step was needed: After a phone call asking a foreign leader’s help with key supplies, he ordered his staff to make sure the review process wasn’t holding up coronavirus-related aid to countries that were assisting the United States.

“The incidents have spurred the Pence-led coronavirus task force to scrutinize all of USAID’s deliveries to countries requesting personal protective equipment (PPE) needed to fight the outbreak, according to people directly involved in the discussions, causing tensions between aid officials and task-force members.” POLITICO

STUNNING ... CNN’S CRISTINA ALESCI and KAITLAN COLLINS: “Major retailers have opened only 5 drive-thru testing locations, none available to the general public”: “While [Target, Walgreens, Walmart and CVS] approximately 30,000 locations combined, the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed that there are only five locations from these major retailers that are currently offering drive-thru testing -- and none are open to the general public.”

NYT’S ALAN RAPPEPORT and JEANNA SMIALEK: “How Powell and Mnuchin Became the Duo in Charge of Saving the Economy”: “In some ways, Mr. Mnuchin and Mr. Powell are odd candidates to shoulder such vast responsibility. They are both financial deal makers by trade, not experts in economic crises. Nor do they have Washington’s unbending confidence: Mr. Powell has been the subject of two years of steady criticism from Mr. Trump, who has likened his Fed chair to an ‘enemy’ and a bad golfer, while Mr. Mnuchin has drawn the skepticism of Congress for refusing to release the president’s tax returns.

“At times Mr. Mnuchin, who advised Mr. Trump to tap Mr. Powell, has tried to thaw the relationship between the Fed chair and the president. In February 2019, Mr. Mnuchin facilitated a casual dinner with Mr. Trump, Mr. Powell and himself at the White House residence, where they discussed the economy, golf and the Super Bowl.”

KYLE CHENEY and MELANIE ZANONA: “Congress wrestles with new coronavirus role: $2 trillion watchdog”: “Democrats are quickly confronting the tension between the need to oversee and investigate Trump’s implementation of the relief law and the genuine worry that congregating in the Capitol could expose them to Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. It’s harder to conduct oversight away from the Hill, and both the House and Senate are out of session until at least April 20 — even as the Trump administration races to begin doling out hundreds of billions of dollars in grants and loans to prop up the floundering economy.

“The White House has also cited the coronavirus outbreak to throw up roadblocks to congressional scrutiny in recent days. The administration issued sharp restrictions on senior officials’ testifying in front of congressional committees during the crisis, arguing they should be focused entirely on a response to the pandemic. That guidance that is set to expire Tuesday, though some lawmakers expected it to be extended.

“And Trump informed Congress last week that he would ignore aspects of the new law meant to require that Congress be informed of certain executive branch decisions regarding a new $500 billion fund for distressed industries. Democrats, well aware of the outrage that followed the 2008 Wall Street bailout, had fought hard to include oversight provisions in the package.” POLITICO

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JOE BIDEN SAYS WHAT EVERYONE IS THINKING … On BRIAN WILLIAMS’ “THE 11TH HOUR” on MSNBC: WILLIAMS: “Here’s one of the ways this coronavirus impacts on politics. Can you really envision every prominent Democrat in this country from all 50 states inside a hot arena 104 days from now?”

BIDEN: “It’s hard to envision that. Again, we should listen to the scientists. And you know, one of the reasons why the Democratic Convention was going to be held early was the Olympics were coming after the Republican Convention. There’s more time now.

“I think we’re going to -- again, we have -- we ought to be able to do, we were able to do in the middle of a Civil War all the way through to World War II, have Democratic and Republican conventions and primaries and elections and still have public safety. And we’re able to do both.

“But the fact is it may have to be different. Now maybe, my guess is there’s going to be a great deal more absentee balloting, we used to call it, but paper ballots, that have to be -- that people would choose to use rather than show up and have social distancing. But who knows?

“By the time we get into July, September, you know -- July to begin with, but June, July, August, September, what it’s going to look like. We’ll have to listen to the scientists. But there’s been no rationale for eliminating or delaying the election. It may be virtual.”

-- BIDEN also said states should plan on remote voting in November.

AP: “Trump allies warn against feud with swing-state governor,” by Steve Peoples and David Eggert in Lansing, Mich.: “President Donald Trump’s allies are trying to contain a politically risky election-year fight with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as he struggles to balance presidential politics with a global pandemic in one of the nation’s most important swing states.

“Both sides have tried to de-escalate the feud this week, although Trump’s supporters in particular sought to downplay tensions that ratcheted up over the weekend when the Republican president unleashed a social media broadside against Whitmer, a Democrat who had been critical of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak. Trump has clashed with other Democratic governors as well, but he saved his most aggressive insults for the first-term female governor who is considered a leading vice presidential prospect for his opponent.”

-- WAPO: “Governors plead for medical equipment from federal stockpile plagued by shortages and confusion,” by Toluse Olorunnipa, Josh Dawsey, Chelsea Janes and Isaac Stanley-Becker: “As states across the country have pleaded for critical medical equipment from a key national stockpile, Florida has promptly received 100 percent of its first two requests — with President Trump and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis both touting their close relationship.

“States including Oklahoma and Kentucky have received more of some equipment than they requested, while others such as Illinois, Massachusetts and Maine have secured only a fraction of their requests.

“It’s a disparity that has caused frustration and confusion in governors’ offices across the country, with some officials wondering whether politics is playing a role in the response.”

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TRUMP TEAM ADDS FIREPOWER, via MARC CAPUTO: GIANCARLO SOPO is joining the Trump campaign as director of rapid response for Spanish-language media. He was previously a staff writer at The Blaze and a regional fellow at the National Review Institute in Dallas. A native of Miami, Sopo comes from a family of Cuban-American exiles, and he will focus on trying to reach America’s diverse Latino communities.

TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY -- The president will participate in a phone call with military families on the coronavirus response at 2:30 p.m. in the Oval Office.

-- THE CORONAVIRUS TASK FORCE will hold a briefing at 5 p.m.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: With much of normal life shut down, mountain goats roam through the Welsh town of Llandudno on Tuesday. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

JOHN HARRIS COLUMN: “Trump’s Breakdown”: “Trump emphatically has faced real opposition, and reveled in it, on his path to power. But he has met earlier chapters of adversity, in politics and business, with reliance on traits—bluster, defiance, implacable self-promotion—that, however unorthodox, served him quite well in the old context.

“Now the context has changed but—so far—Trump has not, or to the extent he has tried it has not lasted more than a few hours at a time. Admirers and foes alike have become so casually accustomed to this president’s shattering of norms in a contemporary political setting that people easily miss how bizarre these circumstances are in historical terms. Is there any equivalent example in American history of a president confronting a grave domestic or international crisis with a similar combination of impetuosity and self-reference?

“In just the past few days … Trump has gone from shocking his own health experts with a prediction that church pews would be filled and the country ‘raring to go’ by Easter to extending the national shutdown through April. He has questioned whether governors are exaggerating their need for medical equipment and then indignantly denied saying that the next day. He has boasted of the television ratings for his coronavirus briefings.”

NYC ON THE BRINK -- “Coronavirus drives New York’s hospitals to breaking point,” by Sally Goldenberg, Amanda Eisenberg and Danielle Muoio in New York: “The coronavirus careening through New York City has brought one of the world’s premier medical capitals to its knees.

“The city’s cash-strapped public hospitals were predictably overwhelmed by the breadth of the virus: Despite relocating certain patients and rearranging wards to open up space for the influx, the system was consumed by the crisis. So too was New York City’s network of private hospitals, most of which operate on much more comfortable margins and have boards that count New York’s civic elite as members.

“In a city of extremes, the coronavirus has been an equalizer: Wealthy and poor alike are grappling with its grip on their medical resources. ‘Everybody’s in the same boat — private hospitals, public hospitals, every hospital,’ said Kenneth Raske, president of Greater New York Hospital Association. ‘They’re all responding to this crisis.’

“The pandemic has exposed how ill-prepared hospitals are for a crisis of this magnitude, despite repeated pleas by medical professionals to bolster response plans. Some of that falls on the federal government, which under Democratic and Republican leadership alike has stripped funding for programs created in the wake of 9/11 to prepare health systems for a catastrophe.” POLITICO

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THE SCIENCE -- “Infected but Feeling Fine: The Unwitting Coronavirus Spreaders,” by NYT’s Apoorva Mandavilli: “As many as 25 percent of people infected with the new coronavirus may not show symptoms, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns — a startlingly high number that complicates efforts to predict the pandemic’s course and strategies to mitigate its spread.

“In particular, the high level of symptom-free cases is leading the C.D.C. to consider broadening its guidelines on who should wear masks. ...

“Researchers do not know precisely how many people are infected without feeling ill, or if some of them are simply presymptomatic. But since the new coronavirus surfaced in December, they have spotted unsettling anecdotes of apparently healthy people who were unwitting spreaders.” NYT

-- “Memos from CDC to White House lay out rationale for possible widespread use of face coverings,” by WaPo’s Lena Sun and Laurie McGinley

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CABO AND CORONA -- “28 Texas students contract coronavirus after spring break trip to Mexico,” by the New York Post’s Kenneth Garger: “Twenty-eight spring breakers from The University of Texas at Austin have contracted coronavirus following a trip to Mexico, health officials said.

“The infected students were among a group of 70 people in their 20s who flew down to Cabo San Lucas on a chartered plane about a week and a half ago, the city of Austin said in a statement Tuesday.” N.Y. Post

ICYMI: “Trump rejects Obamacare special enrollment period amid pandemic,” by Susannah Luthi

ACROSS THE POND … CHARLIE DUXBURY in Stockholm: “The crown vs. corona”: “For the kings and queens of Europe, the coronavirus pandemic is starting to look a lot like wartime. Called away from the routine ceremonies that fill up their normal schedules, the Continent's monarchs have been thrust onto primetime broadcasts in recent weeks to calm and instruct their people in a way rarely seen since World War II.

“In a speech to the nation, the king of Sweden sought to express solidarity and at the same time rally people behind the government line that social distancing is vital to slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

“‘Many people are worried about their health, about their relatives, about their livelihoods,’ King Carl XVI Gustaf said. ‘We are in a situation which demands people take responsibility.’ The stakes for these messengers — hauled back into national emergency mode much like retired doctors are being called back to hospitals — are higher than usual.” POLITICO

-- AP: “Mass testing, empty ICUs: Germany scores early against virus,” by Frank Jordans in Berlin

WHAT BRIAN FALLON IS READING -- “Coronavirus Isn’t Stopping RBG From Working Out,” by Law360’s Jimmy Hoover: “Justice [Ruth Bader] Ginsburg, who turned 87 on March 15, is sticking to her twice-weekly routine of planks, pushups and other exercises with longtime personal trainer Bryant Johnson in the justices’ private gym inside the Supreme Court building, Johnson said in a phone call Tuesday.

“The two are taking extra precautions to wipe down equipment and keep their distance. Johnson, a federal judiciary employee, has canceled appointments with his other clients and now is only working with Justice Ginsburg.” Law360

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

TRANSITIONS -- Ben Famous is now a VP in the Glover Park Group’s strategic comms practice in New York. He most recently was head of strategic comms and brand marketing at Cava, and is a Senate Agriculture Committee alum. … Alex Cisneros is now director of public policy at the Association for Advanced Life Underwriting. He previously was a senior legislative assistant for Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Yochi Dreazen, a principal at the Raben Group’s media and communications practice and a Vox and WSJ alum, and Annie Dreazen, Iraq policy director at the Pentagon, welcomed Rose Beatrice Dreazen on March 12. She joins big brother Jack and big sister Ella. Pic … Another pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Antonio White, founder and principal of the Beyond Ideas Group. What he’s been reading: “It’s the 100th anniversary of the start of the Harlem Renaissance so I’ve been using some of this new free time to finish an 800-page bio on Harlem Renaissance forefather Alain Locke called ‘The New Negro.’ Netflix and GQ magazine have also been solid companions. Have you seen ‘Tiger King’? Whoa!” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Justice Samuel Alito is 7-0 … Rachel Maddow is 47 … Michael Crowley, NYT White House correspondent … Julia Hahn, WH deputy comms director … Mother Jones’ Ali Breland … Jake Hemme of the NSC … Matt Haller, SVP for government relations and public affairs at the International Franchise Association … Kevin McDonald of Sen. Pat Leahy’s (D-Vt.) office (h/t Jon Haber) … Nicole Harburger Stafford … Sean Walsh, principal at Wilson Walsh George Ross … Wess Mitchell … Sean Weppner, chief strategy officer at the Nisos Group … John Palatiello (h/t John Byrd) … Jess Smith, COO of J Street … Bloomberg’s Kait Bolongaro … Noah Schwartz, law clerk at the U.S. Court of International Trade (h/t #INTECON44) …

… Sharon Soderstrom, COS for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell … Nick Benson … Matt Harakal … Hayley Andrews … David Leaverton … Dan Lothian, founder of Little Park Media … Alex Russo … Facebook’s Max Segan … Caity Moran Rose … Anna-Lena Hathaway … Tim Barley … Rachael Duffy … Chuck Larson is 52 … Jon Friedman … Jon Toomey … Katie Mitchell … Ace Burch … Mary Popadiuk … Nicole Piason … Jacob Spiering … Julie Sweet … Bob Drummond … Natalia Brzezinski … Stefan Fatsis is 57 … Gunnar Olson … Rachel Motte … Edelman’s Nicholas Rozzo, Campbell O’Connor and Pranav Shankla … Kindra Cantrell … Jill Dowell … David Brunori … Catherine Goode … Kyle Peyton … Nancy Lee … Timothy Cavanaugh

A message from Google: Helping job seekers kickstart a successful career in IT. Yves Cooper wanted to pursue a career in technology, but didn't have a college degree. He enrolled in the IT Certificate program from Google, which includes interview coaching and connections to top employers. After receiving the Google IT Support Professional Certificate, he was hired as an IT Helpdesk Technician with a higher salary than his previous job. Learn more.

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