CLEVELAND, Ohio – An updated model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts the coronavirus outbreak will peak this week in Ohio without overwhelming hospitals and intensive care units.

The IHME forecasting model projects that Ohio could reach peak resource use – the maximum number of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators needed during the outbreak -- on Wednesday. The model also suggests Ohio will fall well short of running out of resources, even under a worst-case scenario.

Those projections are a contrast to those offered previously by Gov. Mike DeWine and Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton. They have used models from the Cleveland Clinic and Ohio State University to predict the state might need to double or triple the number of available hospital beds during the peak.

The IHME model’s latest projections include two notable changes to its underlying methodology, IHME Director Christopher Murray said Monday in a conference call with media.

First, the early data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggested 11 percent of coronavirus patients may require hospitalization. The latest data indicates that might be closer to 5 to 7 percent, Murray said.

Second, the IHME model initially used data from the first major COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, to gauge the effect of social-distancing measures. Data from seven other locations in Italy and Spain suggest measures like Ohio’s stay-at-home order had a more significant impact than anticipated.

“The reason our numbers are so much lower is that we saw and believed from data in Wuhan that social distancing can lead to a peak, and then a decline to near-zero transmission while social distancing is in place,” Murray said. “Now that’s being reaffirmed in seven other places.”

The models that Ohio officials use to project the outbreak also suggest the state’s outlook has improved, thanks in large part to social-distancing measures like the stay-at-home order, Acton said Monday. She plans to release more data later this week but cautioned it might not be as optimistic as the IHME model.

“We know that we are making a dent in the hospital surge. I think we’ll be able to celebrate some things, that it is not the worst-case scenario that had been raised at some of the early Cleveland Clinic data modeling,” Acton said during a news briefing. “But I think it will not be as optimistic as that [IHME] data. I think it will be somewhere in between.”

The fluidity of data surrounding the novel coronavirus makes predicting exact numbers difficult, statistical and epidemiological experts told cleveland.com. The U.S. lags behind countries like South Korea, in testing for the virus, and Ohio officials have said they only have enough tests for the sickest people.

Previous updates to the IHME model suggested Ohio could reach peak resource use sometime between April 15 and April 20. Five days ago, the model also allowed for a small possibility the state could run out of hospital beds if it did not increase capacity.

The IHME model assumes all social distancing measures will remain in effect through May 31; Ohio’s order is set to expire May 1. Murray cautioned that if states relax social-distancing measures sooner, it could lead to another spike in coronavirus cases.

“If you ease up prematurely, the epidemic can rebound right back to the level we’re at now in a matter of weeks,” Murray said.

The IHME is not prepared to say when it will be safe for states to begin easing social-distancing measures, Murray said.

Latest IHME projections offer a better outlook for Ohio

The IHME model says there are 14,290 hospital beds and 1,238 ICU beds available in Ohio. It does not give a total number of ventilators, but three Northeast Ohio healthcare systems told cleveland.com they have more than 1,000 ventilators in total.

Ohio is projected to need 1,372 hospital beds, 269 ICU beds and 229 ventilators at different times during the peak, according to the IHME model. All of those figures are significantly under peak capacity.

The IHME model also offers a range of possible outcomes known as a 95 percent confidence level. The range provides a snapshot of the resources Ohio will need under a worst-case scenario.

Even then, the state will need a maximum of 2,516 hospital beds, 470 ICU beds and 400 ventilators, well below levels that would overwhelm healthcare systems.

The model projects 544 deaths in Ohio through Aug. 4, with all of them occurring by May 1. The number of deaths could range from a low of 400 to a high of 742, according to the model’s 95 percent confidence level.

Murray said government officials and healthcare workers should treat the IHME projections like a weather forecast, and plan for the worst-case scenario.

“It’s far better to be planning for the upper (range) because it’s harder to scramble to get personnel and equipment and resources on very short notice than it is to have it go unused,” he said.

How does the IHME model differ from Ohio models?

The IHME model uses a litany of factors pulled from multiple countries, including the U.S., China, South Korea and Italy, to make its estimation. Among those variables is the probability of one person infecting others, death rate, age, implementation of social distancing policies and hospital bed capacity.

The IHME is using three types of models to reach its conclusions, although Murray did not specify which types.

“You want to hedge your bets when it comes to forecasting by having more models in that model pool,” he said.

It’s difficult to say how the model differences from others used in Ohio because modelers have not yet released their underlying data.

Ohio State University’s Infectious Disease Institute has not released any underlying data for its modeling, but that information could be released sometime this week, Director Michael Oglesbee said Thursday.

The Cleveland Clinic has not disclosed its methodology either, but the healthcare system has said it’s using a SIR model to provide a forecast for Ohio. A SIR model, which stands for susceptible, infected, recovery, is a commonly-used method for projecting a viral outbreak.

Read more from cleveland.com:

Ohio State researchers say state coronavirus modeling will likely be public next week

Why are different coronavirus models predicting a wide range of outcomes in Ohio?

University of Washington projection: Coronavirus won’t overwhelm Ohio hospitals and ICU beds