Teams are listed in order of projected finish, based on win-loss records at Fangraphs.com.

Cleveland Indians

Projected record: 87-75

How they got better

The Tribe will get a full season from shortstop Francisco Lindor, runner-up for rookie of the year, so that will help the offense. But his defense will help the team even more: Lindor tied for fourth in defensive runs saved at the position (plus-10) and made six of nine “unlikely” plays, those that are converted between 10 and 40 percent of the time, in the field.

How they got worse

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Outside of Cody Allen, the bullpen has problems. Last year, Cleveland’s relievers combined for 4.9 wins above replacement, but after adding Joba Chamberlain, Dan Otero, Ross Detwiler, and Tommy Hunter they are expected to produce just 3.2 as a group.

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Carlos Santana, their projected No. 3 hitter, batted .231 last season with a .357 OBP and .395 SLG. The typical AL hitter in that spot had a slash line of .275/.347/.462. To further complicate the issue, Santana saw declines in his walk rate (17.1 to 16.2 percent) and percentage of hard-balls hit (35.0 to 29.8), indicating the 29 year old may be at the beginning of a prolonged decline.

Detroit Tigers

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Projected record: 81-81

How they got better

The addition of Jordan Zimmermann gives them a front-of-the-rotation guy who eats up innings with good command (4.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio last season). Zimmermann’s biggest asset might be his ability to induce weak contact — he ranked 21st among qualified starters for most “soft” balls hit at 20 percent — and groundballs (42 percent of batted balls).

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How they got worse

They haven’t infused much youth into the meat of the batting order. Based on the projected lineup, three of their first five batters will be on the wrong side of 30: Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez

Kinsler, their leadoff hitter, is expected to have a .320 to .330 OBP. Cabrera, who landed on the disabled list for the first time last season, now has two straight seasons of decline in isolated power (.288 in 2013 to .211 in 2014 to .196 in 2015). And Martinez, at 37 years old, is projected to add less than one win above replacement.

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Cabrera needs to stay healthy, but he also needs to see his power return at the plate. His average will remain high (projected to be .313 in 2016) but his slugging percentage is expected to slide to his lowest rate (.522) since 2004.

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Chicago White Sox

Projected record: 80-82

How they got better

They added Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie to help protect Jose Abreu in the lineup. Frazier is expected to hit 25 home runs, steal at least 10 bases and add three wins above replacement in 2016. Lawrie, meanwhile, should benefit from leaving O.co Coliseum, one of the friendliest pitcher parks, to U.S. Cellular Field, one of the most friendly to hitters.

How they got worse

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The White Sox still have holes at designated hitter, shortstop and right field, where they are projected to rank 23rd, 21st, and 29th, respectively, for total wins above replacement.

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Frazier adds a big bat, but his second-half collapse last season bears monitoring. He went from producing runs at a rate 46 percent higher than the league average to 25 percent below average after the all-star break. The season before also saw a dramatic decline.

Minnesota Twins

Projected record: 78-84

How they got better

In 2014 the Twins hired pitching coach Neil Allen, who started having his staff emphasize the change up. Kyle Gibson, for example, threw the change nearly 20 percent of the time last year, up from 12.5 percent in each of the two years before, and held batters to a .175 average with just 10 extra-base hits in 160 at-bats ending on the pitch.

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The team threw the pitch 9 percent of the time in 2015, up from 8 percent the year before, and subsequently lowered its ERA by a half-run. Not all the improvement can be attributed to one pitch, but they should take another step forward this season utilizing one of the most effective pitches in baseball.

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How they got worse

The pitching should improve, but they are still relying on Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana to anchor their starting rotation, a rotation projected to be among the bottom 10 in MLB.

Hughes saw his strikeouts per nine innings go from 7.98 to 5.45 in just one season and Santana started off on the wrong foot with the Twins after losing his first 80 games with the club to a suspension for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs.

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Joe Mauer, now 32 years old, has struggled the past couple of seasons. His 0.3 fWAR in 2015 was the lowest of his career and Mauer isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did even two years ago, but the team should enjoy production closer to his 2014 campaign, a 1.7 fWAR season.

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Kansas City Royals

Projected record: 78-84

How they got better

They signed catcher Salvador Perez to a team-friendly six-year, $52.5 million dollar contract extension this offseason. His 2015 season is estimated to be worth $13 million on the open market, and the projections have him back to producing double that in 2016.

Perez also did a decent job framing strikes on the outside parts of the plate.

How they got worse

Ben Zobrist joined manager Joe Maddon in Chicago, removing one of baseball’s most consistent bats from the Royals lineup and forcing Omar Infante to take a bigger role at second base.

Johnny Cueto left for the San Fransisco Giants, putting pressure on Yordano Ventura and/or Edinson Volquez to become the ace of the staff. The challenge there is Ventura and Volquez are expected to produce as much value combined as Cueto is alone.

When a team’s batters cluster hits together to score more runs and a team’s pitchers spread hits apart to allow fewer runs, that’s cluster luck. Say a team tallies nine singles in one game. If all of those singles occur in the same inning, the team would likely score seven runs; if each single occurs in a different inning, however, it’d likely mean a shutout.

To be fair, FanGraphs projected the Royals would win 79 games in 2015 and the betting markets had their over/under set at 83 wins, yet Kansas City had the last laugh after winning the World Series.

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