COUNTY % OF

STATEWIDE VOTE WHAT KAROFSKY

NEEDS To BREAK 50% 2019 Sup. Ct.

Results STATEWIDE 100.0 50/50 50/50 DANE 12.6 79/21 79/21 MILWAUKEE 12.4 62/38 62/38 WAUKESHA 9.6 31/69 31/69 BROWN 4.2 47/53 47/53 WASHINGTON 3.1 25/75 25/75 RACINE 3.1 43/57 43/57 OUTAGAMIE 2.9 45/55 45/55 WinNEBAGO 2.8 48/52 48/52 ROCK 2.3 60/40 60/40 MARATHON 2.3 41/59 41/59 SHEBOYGAN 2.1 37/63 37/63 KENOSHA 1.9 48/52 48/52 LA CROSSE 1.9 61/39 61/39

We’ll also try out a separate set of benchmarks using our usual method: the most recent previous presidential election. Conveniently, this was also a super-close race, much to the nation’s chagrin (though 6% of the state’s votes went to third-party candidates in this election—unlike the 2019 Supreme Court election, where there were only two candidates—so this requires a modification of an additional three points to each side). While Karofsky and Kelly won’t be identified by party labels on the ballot, results in recent Supreme Court elections have fallen largely along traditional partisan lines.

COUNTY % OF

STATEWIDE VOTE WHAT KAROFSKY

NEEDS To BREAK 50% 2016 PRES.

Results STATEWIDE 100 50/50 47/47 MILWAUKEE 14.8 68/32 65/29 DANE 10.4 73/26 70/23 WAUKESHA 8.0 36/63 33/60 BROWN 4.3 44/55 41/52 RACINE 3.2 48/52 45/50 OUTAGAMIE 3.2 44/56 41/53 WINNEBAGO 2.9 46/53 43/50 WASHINGTON 2.6 30/70 27/67 KENOSHA 2.6 50/50 47/47 ROCK 2.6 55/44 52/41 MARATHON 2.3 41/59 38/56 LA CROSSE 2.1 54/44 51/41 SHEBOYGAN 2.0 41/57 38/54

Despite these trends, there are still some noteworthy differences between these two models.

First and foremost is the differing roles of the state’s two biggest and bluest counties, Milwaukee County and Dane County (home of Madison, the state capital, and the University of Wisconsin). In the 2019 Supreme Court race, Dane really led the way, supplying the most votes of any county, despite having a population just 58% the size of Milwaukee County’s, and gave Neubauer a huge vote share—even bigger than in the 2016 presidential election.

Milwaukee County, by contrast, almost slept through last year’s election, producing not only a smaller number of votes but also yielding a more Republican-friendly electorate (suggesting that the low turnout was mostly in the city proper, and higher in the close-in suburbs).

By contrast, in 2016, Milwaukee County led the state in total turnout and also looked considerably bluer, closer to being on the same level as Dane County. Meanwhile, Waukesha County in Milwaukee’s suburbs (the third most-populous county in the state) was indeed crucial for Hagedorn in the 2019 election, providing a slightly bigger percentage of the statewide vote share than it did in 2016. It also gave a much bigger percentage to Hagedorn in 2019 than it did to Donald Trump in 2016, when some of the county’s well-educated electorate was in never-Trump mode, as we saw in a many other affluent suburbs around the country.

It remains to be seen which of the models will be closer to what we see tonight; it’s possible that the Democratic presidential primary’s presence on the ballot will help drive turnout in both Milwaukee and Dane Counties, relative to the rest of the state, despite the challenging circumstances of the election and the greatly diminished number of polling places open in Milwaukee.

To find out, check back at 5 PM ET for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections.