Earlier today, David Groveman wrote a piece on Dominic Smith and the typical progression of players through the minors. The purpose was to advise caution and not expect Smith to come up and be a contributor anytime soon. It’s always a good idea to advise caution with prospects. However, I believe that guys who make the majors and contribute in any meaningful way will advance at a much quicker rate and as fans we should be disappointed if a first-round pick follows what is considered the typical progression.

According to Matt Eddy of Baseball America, “roughly one in six” of drafted players will make the majors. A couple of days ago, Eddy published a study of drafts from 1987 to 2008 to come up with his numbers. He picked 1987 because it was the first year of only one phase, or what we have currently. He picked 2008 to allow five full years for players to advance through the farm system.

He found that of the 19,121 players signed in this time period, 3,288 made the majors, or 17.2%. Furthermore, there’s a direct correlation between the round a player is drafted and the chances to make the majors. A first-round pick from this study made the majors 73% of the time. A supplemental first-round pick makes the majors 52.3% of the time. A second-round pick made the majors 49.4% of the time.

For the Mets, 14 first-round picks in this period made the majors while nine did not. Their 61% success ratio is well beneath the overall average.

Smith was drafted out of high school. The most recent high school player taken by the Mets in the first round to make the majors was Lastings Milledge. He was the 12th overall pick of the 2003 Draft and here was his progression through the minors:

03 – APPY

04 – SAL/FSL

05 – FSL/EAST

06 – INT/MLB

The previous year the Mets took Scott Kazmir 15th overall and this was his progression:

02 – NYP

03 – SAL/FSL

04 – FSL/EAST/SOU/MLB

The next high school player drafted by the Mets on the first round to make the majors was Terrence Long, who was picked 20th in 1994. Here’s his progression:

94 – APPY

95 – NYP/SAL

96 – SAL

97 – FSL

98 – EAST

99 – INT/PCL/MLB

Next up is Preston Wilson, selected ninth in 1992. Here’s his progression:

92 – Did not play (likely signed too late)

93 – APPY/NYP

94 – SAL

95 – SAL

96 – FSL

97 – FSL/EAST

98 – INT/MLB

Meanwhile, the Mets also picked several high school products in this span who did not reach the majors. Each year is separated by a comma, while a “/” indicates more than one level in a given year.

1997 – Geoff Goetz (6th) – GULF, SAL/MID, MID, FSL/EAST, EAST, EAST, FSL/EAST

1995 – Ryan Jaroncyk (18th) – GULF/NYP, APPY, SAL, where he retired after 29 games

1993 – Kirk Presley (8th) – NYP/FSL, SAL, NYP, SAL, SAL – career derailed by arm injuries

1991 – Al Shirley (18th)– GULF, APPY, APPY/SAL, SAL, GULF/FSL, CARO, TEX, TEX

If we go a couple of years outside Eddy’s study, we find the Mets took more high school players on the first round. Here are their progressions:

1986 – Lee May (21st) – APPY, APPY, NYP, NYP/SAL, FSL, EAST/INT, INT, SOU

1985 – Gregg Jefferies (20th) – APPY/SAL, CARO/SAL/TEX, TEX/MLB

1984 – Shawn Abner (1st) – APPY/NYP, CARO, TEX, PCL/MLB

1983 – Eddie Williams (4th) – NYP, SAL/FSL, MID, EAST/MLB

1983 – Stan Jefferson (20th) – NYP, CARO, TEX, INT/MLB

That’s the last 13 high school players the Mets have drafted on the first round since 2008. Eight made the majors and five did not. Of the eight that did make the majors, not one played two full years exclusively at the GULF/APPY/NYP levels. The Mets have a definite hierarchy among these clubs but their top draft picks need to fly through this short-season level if they are going to make it to the majors.

Of the five high school first-rounders who didn’t make the majors, three of them (Jaroncyk, Shirley, May) played two full years exclusively at the short-season level. It’s why it was so disappointing to see the Mets start Gavin Cecchini in the NYP this year. It would have been much more preferable to see Cecchini start the year in the SAL and then if he was struggling, move down to the NYP once the short-season league started, much like Long did 18 years ago.

The bottom line is I want to see Smith start next year in the SAL. While his overall numbers look disappointing, we see he got off to a horrible start and has been raking since. In June, Smith had a .430 OPS. But here in July he has a .295/.400/.475 line in 75 PA. It would be nice to see a touch more power, but that’s really a nitpick.

Ideally we would have a much bigger sample from which to draw conclusions. If we looked at all the teams in baseball over the length of Eddy’s study, I am positive we would find first-round high school draft picks who made the majors after playing two full years in short-season ball. Yet, I’m equally convinced that the vast majority of the guys who went on to careers in the majors spent just one year in short-season ball.

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