The city needs to double asphalt repair spending over the next decade just to keep increasingly rutted roads in fair shape, a new analysis shows.

As it is, municipal road conditions — particularly neighbourhood streets and urban collectors — are deteriorating steadily because the city budget isn't keeping up with needed repairs, says public works head Dan McKinnon.

"We're not sustainable … We know the overall condition rating is going to decline," McKinnon said during a presentation to councillors on the city's latest road condition analysis.

That report suggests Hamilton must spend about $521 million on repairs and reconstruction over the next 10 years just to hold the line on existing road conditions. We're on track to spend only half that amount, with about $25.5-million slated to be directed to such repairs in 2017.

The city actually spends closer to $80 million a year on all things roads-related — but that includes bridges, sidewalks and street lights, traffic engineering, technical studies and construction related to new development.

The city bases its latest dire prediction on a roads condition index calculated with the help of a consultant who used ground-penetrating laser technology and visual inspections to evaluate all municipal roads block by block.

Based on the latest study, the city has awarded itself a "C" grade for roads — defined as "fair with some deterioration or defects evident" — or an average condition index of 62.

The "optimum" target condition index for roads is 81. While the city's two parkways are close to that target level of driveability, residential streets and urban collectors have an average condition index closer to 58.

The latest public report doesn't finger particularly bad roads or neighbourhoods, but a photo presentation to councillors used a spiderweb-cracked section of Chapple Street in Stoney Creek to illustrate a road in need of a rebuild.

When index conditions fall below 45, a roadway generally can't be saved by a simple "shape-and-pave," said engineering director Gary Moore.

"We have some, obviously, that are in really rough shape," he said. "We know where they are … but we don't necessarily have the resources to deal with them all."

Moore said the city can't keep up with all of its failing neighbourhood roads because most of the annual repair budget is dedicated to critical arterials and bridges.

That shortfall is part of the city's larger estimated capital spending backlog of about $3 billion. The latest report suggests the city would need to spend $1.3 billion over 10 years to bring all roads up to "optimal" condition.

Councillors Doug Conley and Chad Collins asked staff Monday to dig up and distribute individual road condition statistics by ward.

"I think it would be interesting to see the conditions assessments by road, because sometimes the projects we approve don't line up with the feedback we're receiving from residents," Collins said.

Collins had also previously asked roads staff to explore whether the city can spend less by eliminating "unneeded" road lanes. In the past, he has pointed to the Claremont Access, which had one lane closed permanently after a 2012 landslide without causing traffic backups.

Moore has also suggested parts of the elevated portion of Burlington Street and Nikola Tesla Parkway may not be needed without two fully functional steel plants. A report on road capacity is expected as part of a long-awaited master transportation plan update.

Collins said "cost avoidance" is one way the city can try to deal with its roads spending deficit.

"But in the end, without assistance from higher levels of government, we're inevitably going to fall further and further behind."

Road condition index The city rates road conditions using an index from 0-100. Realistically, 81 is considered an optimal target, while anything below 30 requires a total rebuild.

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Parkways: 77

Urban arterials: 61-63

Urban collectors: 58

Urban residential: 59

Rural (all): 66-67

City average: 62

Matthew Van Dongen Matthew Van Dongen is the city hall reporter for the Hamilton Spectator. Email | Twitter

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