CHARLESTON, W.Va. — Republicans would like nothing more than for Democrats to join their blockade of President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. And there’s no better place to try than in West Virginia, a deep red state with one of the few remaining conservative Democrats in Congress as its senior senator.

But the GOP has a ways to go to make it happen if a town hall meeting held by Sen. Joe Manchin here on Thursday is any indication.


Though Manchin and his constituents voiced serious doubts about Merrick Garland’s record on guns, abortion and environmental issues, only one West Virginian advised Manchin to join with the GOP and insist on denying Garland hearings or a vote. The rest seemed swayed by the senator's argument that Garland deserves at least to go through the process.

This in a state that gives Obama the lowest approval rating in the country.

“You’ve convinced me to give him a vote,” said Pastor Doug Joseph, a board member of West Virginians for Life, which opposes abortion rights. “I hope it’s a down vote.”

The reaction from voters during the 75-minute event — the first town hall organized by a senator from a conservative state to discuss the Supreme Court situation — was a stark contrast to what Manchin confronted at a similar gathering last summer. When the 68-year-old former governor left Washington for the August recess, he was “leaning toward” supporting Obama’s Iran nuclear deal. Then he got an earful at a town hall and switched his position, becoming one of only four Democrats to vote against the agreement, and the only one from a red state.

The constituent meeting in the W. Kent Carper Justice & Public Safety Complex here, across the street from a courthouse named for Manchin’s predecessor, legendary Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd, was remarkably tame by comparison.

Manchin said at the outset that he’d take all of his constituents’ concerns to Garland when he meets with the judge one-on-one on April 5. But he faced almost no pressure to change his position.

“They might not like the guy, might vote against him. But the gut is: ‘He deserves a hearing,’” Manchin said in an interview afterward. “If I’m that far out of the mainstream in my home state that they don’t want me to talk to the guy, then I would hear that. … [But] you didn’t hear that today. And this was a good forum for them to do it if they wanted to.”

While Democrats have mounted an offensive to get Republicans to break ranks with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and take meetings with Garland, a counter-campaign is underway by conservative groups aimed at Democrats like Manchin — those in red-leaning states up for reelection in 2018. Others on the target list are Sens. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana. Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, the only vulnerable Democratic incumbent on the ballot this year, is also facing a $1 million ad barrage by the Judicial Crisis Network.

Democratic leaders insist that even the most conservative Democrats will stand firm. Asked whether he's worried they will bend, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said: “My caucus? Ha, no. I don’t think so."

Conservative groups "want to do anything they can to put a scare into my members," Reid said in an interview this week. "The people who have coalesced around McConnell are the right-wing organizations that have money.”

Yet that small bloc of Democratic centrists, a group that includes Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Jon Tester of Montana, has a different calculation than the rest of the caucus. Their constituents are more prone to opposing national Democrats, and they will be up for reelection in a midterm election year in which Republicans have to defend a scant eight seats.

The conservative Judicial Crisis Network is advertising in West Virginia in the hopes of making Manchin go wobbly. "Tell Joe Manchin that he should let the people decide and not allow Obama to stack the court with liberal judges," a narrator intones in a spot backed by $250,000.

Those sentiments have resonated with people like John Cook, a Vietnam veteran, who was the loudest critic of Manchin at the town hall.

“Oppose this. Don’t even meet with the guy or anybody else that Obama’s put up,” Cook said. “This state is currently at war because we mine coal. Until there’s a truce on the war on coal, I think you should oppose anything that Obama puts forth that is likely to hurt our people.”

But the Judicial Crisis Network ad also annoyed some citizens here. It was brought up nearly a dozen times during the meeting, nearly every mention negative.

Marjorie Willis, a retired school teacher, said seeing the ad motivated her to show up on Thursday. She called Garland’s views on abortion a “concern" but said the process must move forward.

“This gentleman deserves a hearing because of that Constitution. Not because of: ‘I don’t like President Obama, or I’m pro-life,’” Willis said.

Supporters of McConnell say the gathering was not representative of public opinion in West Virginia. They are making it known that red-state Democrats will face a lot more heat unless they adopt McConnell’s position. In an interview, Judicial Crisis Network chief counsel Carrie Severino said that there will likely be more ads in West Virginia, until Manchin changes his mind.

“I would hope he and other senators like him would be willing to stand up to the president,” Severino said. “Look, if Sen. Manchin said he wanted to give the people a voice, we might be running ads thanking him.”

There’s some safety in Manchin’s position. It’s easy enough for him to call for hearings and a vote on Garland without saying how he might vote on the nominee. In fact, Manchin suggested that he might do just that.

“I probably don’t [have to reveal a position on Garland], if you want to play the safe political bet,” Manchin said. “I don’t think I would come to a conclusion until I see him go through the hearing process, ‘cause they’re going to be asking a lot more questions than I will.”

Manchin has aggressively distanced himself from Reid and Obama at times — most memorably, in an ad in which he shot a climate change bill with a gun.

But he has never voted on a Supreme Court nominee during his six years in the Senate. And if McConnell or Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) open the door to Garland’s nomination, there will be immense national and local pressure on Manchin to oppose the nominee.

That sentiment was much more popular at the town hall on Thursday than joining McConnell’s stance against hearings or a vote.

“What’s been presented to us is a bit of a charade. I don’t think [Garland’s] a centrist at all,” Blair Wills, an attendee at the town hall who works in the chemical industry, said in an interview. “I’m not a one-issue voter, [but] I don’t think [Garland] represents the citizens of this state."

John Bresnahan contributed to this report.