From a trail of 14 percent vote share in August, it is now down to 8 percent. However, the sheer size of the Congress’s lead in the state has ensured that a change of 2 percent vote share will not impact the seat share projections much.

With the matter of ticket distribution settled and last-minute micro-management in place, the vote share trends may not differ substantially, here on. An 8 percent projected vote share lead is unlikely to be whittled down by a disjointed Rajasthan BJP.

The Congress is leading all 5 electoral regions of Rajasthan comfortably, that is, with more than 3 percent projected vote share difference. Only in Marwad and Mewar regions, the Congress’s lead is less than 5 percent in vote share; in the other three regions, the Congress is completely dominating the BJP, especially in Dhundhar and Harouti.

This is indicative of a uniform anti-incumbency mood across the state with no pocket of BJP influence shining through in the polls.