West Valley primary turnout lifts Democratic hopes of competing in red Arizona

Democratic voters did something unusual in the West Valley's special congressional primary race last week.

They not only fielded a candidate in the 8th District for the first time in years, they actually fielded two of them.

The party's voters seemed to notice, boosting turnout in the district last week to 35 percent, a sharp increase from the 20 percent who showed up in 2002 — the last time there was an open seat in that area.

Republican voters still outnumbered Democrats, and the percentage of voters who showed up was also higher for the GOP primary — 41 percent for that party's 12-way race.

But the higher interest among Democrats fits a national pattern of Democratic voters showing more energy than in 2016.

Last week's special primary was the first time Arizona voters had a chance to gauge whether the national trend was at work here as well. And it has Democrats thinking of more competitive races to come.

'We're going to compete'

Democrats will get an early dose of reality next month when the 8th District's conservative-leaning voters settle the special election between Republican Debbie Lesko and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in April.

Republicans have a 17-percentage point registration advantage over Democrats. Nearly twice as many people voted for a Republican than a Democrat in last week's primary.

But Enrique Gutierrez, a spokesman for the Arizona Democratic Party, said, "We're not going to let Debbie go without a fight. We're going to compete in (the 8th District) as much as we can. On the national level, there is some sort of backlash against the Trump agenda."

MORE CD8 NEWS:

Here's where West Valley congressional candidates stand on climate change

5 takeaways from the 8th District congressional primaries

Roberts: CD8's Debbie Lesko to opponent Phil Lovas: I'll sue you

Barrett Marson, a spokesman for the Lesko campaign, said they will not coast into the special general election. "Debbie will work incredibly hard over the next two months. She is not going to take anything for granted. She will not be outworked."

While those figures suggest Democrats face daunting odds in that race, another strong showing could send a message to Republicans who are on the ballot in the fall that Democrats may show in greater numbers and have an impact on other races.

That could make statewide races, such as the U.S. Senate contest and the governor's race, more competitive.

'More motivated this year'

Mike Noble, the chief pollster for OH Predictive Insights who has served as a Republican campaign adviser, has been warning the GOP could face a bad electoral environment in Arizona since November.

"Absolutely, Democrats are going to be more motivated this year. If you're in a swing district and you're an incumbent Republican, be worried," Noble said. "If you're a Democrat, hands down this is the best time to run because of the environment."

That doesn't change the political reality of Arizona — it still leans to Republicans — but it can make close races even closer, he said.

That means Republicans will have a harder time unseating U.S. Rep. Tom O'Halleran, D-Ariz., in the competitive 1st Congressional District, and face a tough task holding the 2nd Congressional District seat currently held by U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., who is running for the U.S. Senate.

And party loyalty means that an unpopular President Donald Trump also translates to a tougher re-election for Gov. Doug Ducey than he would otherwise face, Noble said.

"The party that is in power is always going to lose seats. The question is how much," he said. "The GOP's goal this year is to hold on as much as it can. When you look at more swing districts, ... it will impact them."

READ MORE POLITICS:

Tech tax break proposal raises concerns about funding for schools, cities in Arizona

Arizona Rep. Isela Blanc arrested during DACA protest on National Mall in D.C.

Why might Arizona car registration soon cost more? Hint: Roads are crumbling

The higher turnout in the 8th District translates to more than 16,000 extra votes. That nearly matches Brianna Westbrook's vote totals in her loss to Tipirneni in the Democratic primary.

Westbrook, a liberal activist, has said she will work to elect the more centrist Tipirneni in the upcoming special election, Gutierrez said. Westbrook has also said her own political efforts aren't over, either.

In another sign of Democrats' interest in competing more aggressively, the Arizona Democratic Party opened a field office in the West Valley over the weekend, an unusually early debut.

Still an uphill fight for Democrats

Winning statewide has been an elusive goal for Democrats in Arizona. The party hasn't won a gubernatorial race in 12 years and it has been 30 years since Democrats won a Senate race.

Enthusiasm is a welcome ingredient to the electoral mix for the party, but they are still missing perhaps the most important one: registered voters.

Between January 2017 and January this year, 21 percent of new voters in the West Valley registered as Democrats. That's even lower than the party's 24 percent overall in that congressional district. Republicans registered nearly twice as many new voters in the past year, but their share also dipped to 39 percent.

In keeping with a statewide, long-term trend, third party and independent voters claimed the biggest share of new registrations: 40 percent. That's even more than the 35 percent in the West Valley who are not registered as Democrats or Republicans.

A blue wave?

Democrats are seeing voting boosts in unusual places around the country. Texas has seen a startling spike in Democratic interest ahead of that state's primaries this week.

In December, Democrats in Alabama turned out nearly at presidential election levels to win a special election for a Senate seat over a deeply flawed Republican candidate.

High Democratic enthusiasm also helped the party bring the Virginia House of Delegates to a nearly even split after significant gains in 2017.

And on Capitol Hill, 26 House Republicans have quit or announced they won't seek another term compared to nine Democrats. Others, including Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., are running for higher office in districts that may have proven difficult to win this year.

READ MORE:

Mobile home park on tribal land near Scottsdale faces closure after 50 years

Arizona teachers plan protest Wednesday over low pay

State has spent nearly $2M defending against foster-care lawsuit; wants another $3.8M