In an age saturated by data and opinion polls, most people know, surely, not to take the results of any one survey too seriously. There are rogue polls that use unreliable methods, statistical outliers that reflect random-sampling errors, and polls that provide accurate snapshots but reflect temporary shifts in sentiment.

All of that said, it’s hard to dismiss entirely a new poll from CBS News and the Times that shows Donald Trump running even with Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race, with more than two-thirds of respondents saying that Clinton can’t be trusted. On the eve of the two party Conventions, other polls have also suggested that the race is tightening up, at least somewhat, and that it has been significantly affected by public criticisms from James Comey, the director of the F.B.I., of Clinton for running a private e-mail system when she was Secretary of State. For some Clinton supporters, the question is whether it’s time to panic. My answer: not yet.

The CBS/Times poll was carried out by a reputable polling organization, S.S.R.S., which employed human beings, rather than software, to survey a decent-sized sample—sixteen hundred people—via landlines and cell phones. Among the thirteen hundred and fifty-eight registered voters in the sample, forty per cent said that if the election was being held today, they would vote for Trump, and the same percentage said that they would vote for Clinton. Eight per cent said that they were undecided, seven per cent said that they wouldn’t vote, and four per cent indicated a preference for another candidate.

Since the poll has a margin of error of three percentage points for each candidate, the statistical takeaway is that there is a ninety-five-per-cent chance that Clinton and Trump are running within six points of each other. This suggests that Clinton could be leading Trump by forty-three per cent to thirty-seven per cent. Equally, though, Trump could be ahead by the same margin. What will really raise alarm in Democratic circles isn’t the headline numbers, though. It’s the trend line, coupled with the poll’s detailed findings.

Three months ago, the CBS/Times poll showed Clinton leading Trump by ten percentage points, fifty to forty, among registered voters. In May and June, the poll had Clinton ahead by six percentage points. Now, it shows the two candidates tied. This narrowing flies in the face of the standard narrative, almost universally accepted inside the media and political bubble, that Trump has had a disastrous time since he wrapped up the G.O.P. nomination, in early May.

From the Trump University scandal, to his criticisms of a federal judge, to his botched response to the Orlando shootings, to his failure to set up a nationwide campaign apparatus, to his comedic search for a running mate, Trump appears to have gone from blunder to blunder. (I have certainly written as much.) But this poll suggests that the voters at large haven’t been paying as much attention to Trump’s antics as the media. Or, even if they have been taking it all in, it hasn’t changed their opinions. In April, Trump stood at forty per cent in the CBS/Times poll; today, he stands at forty per cent.

Where there has been quite a bit of change is on the other side: over the past three months, Clinton has seen her support fall by ten percentage points in the CBS/Times poll. This decline has been accompanied by a further drop in her approval rating, which was already very low by historical standards. In the new survey, just twenty-eight per cent of respondents said that they had a favorable opinion of Clinton, a decline of five points compared with last month. The percentage of people who said they considered Clinton “not honest and trustworthy” hit sixty-seven per cent, a new high. Even among self-identified Democrats, the figure was thirty-seven per cent.

Trump’s approval ratings are also dismal, of course. At first glance, they don’t appear to be quite as bad as Clinton’s in this poll. Thirty per cent of respondents said that they had a favorable opinion of Trump. (That was four points higher than last month.) Sixty-two per cent of respondents said that they considered Trump to be “not honest and trustworthy.” This was five points lower than the figure for Clinton, but once you allow for margins of error the two candidates are pretty much tied when it comes to disapproval and untrustworthiness. Other polls show a similar picture. According to the Huffington Post’s poll averages, 59.7 per cent of the electorate has an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and 56.9 per cent of the voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.

Given the impression that there’s a pox on both of the candidates’ houses, why do I say that it’s not yet time for Clinton supporters to panic? For three reasons:

First, the over-all polling picture still shows her running ahead of Trump, both nationally and in most battleground states. The RealClearPolitics poll average shows Clinton leading by 3.1 percentage points; the Huffington Post’s poll average basically agrees, putting the margin at three percentage points. And among the thirty-four national polls carried out since the start of June that RealClearPolitics has tracked, Trump led in just three, all of them carried out by Rasmussen, a pollster with a reputation for producing numbers slanted toward Republicans. Setting those polls aside, Trump hasn’t led in any poll since mid-May.

Poll findings in swing states have been more variable. On Wednesday, a new survey from Quinnipiac University received a lot of attention because it showed the two candidates statistically tied in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, which are all target states for Trump. But previous polls from Quinnipiac also showed the races even in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The only significant change was in Florida, where Trump closed an eight-point deficit, a development that could conceivably reflect Clinton’s e-mail troubles. Mimicking the results of the CBS/Times survey, the internals suggested, according to Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, that Clinton “has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty.”

Other survey results provide a more reassuring picture for Clinton, however. A new poll from NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal shows her leading Trump by nine percentage points in Pennsylvania, which is shaping up as a must-win state for the Republicans. According to the RealClearPolitics poll averages, Trump is also lagging in Wisconsin and Michigan, two more states that are central to the Rust Belt strategy he hopes to employ to reach two hundred and seventy electoral votes. On the other hand, the poll averages confirm that the races in three key states—Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio—are all very tight.

On Twitter on Wednesday, Brian Fallon, Clinton’s press secretary, alluded to the state polling and said that Trump represents “a serious danger.” Nobody should deny that. But there are two more factors working in Clinton’s favor that the polls don’t necessarily take account of: timing and organization.