Matt Helms

Detroit Free Press

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is ruling out speculation that he might run for governor in two years or consider a position in a Hillary Clinton White House, should his fellow Democrat win in November.

But he said he’s also waiting until year’s end to decide whether he’ll seek a second term as mayor of a post-bankruptcy city that’s seeing a boom in certain areas, but a persistent lack of business activity and recovery in many of its neighborhoods.

“I’m going to sit down and make a decision at the end of the year” on whether to run again, Duggan said in an interview with the Free Press, seven months ahead of the filing deadline for candidates.

► Related: Accountant, founder of nonprofit sole Duggan challenger

► Related: Detroit retirees' effort to restore pension fails

Political analysts say it’s his race to lose, evidenced by a lack of candidates signaling an interest — privately or publicly — in challenging an incumbent who can point to some improvements since taking office, such as street light replacement, faster police, fire and ambulance response times and the incremental expansion of bus service.

A half dozen political observers of state and city politics said it’s atypical that, just more than a year out from the next mayoral election, there’s little to no chatter about serious contenders lining up to take on Duggan, a formidable campaigner and fund-raiser with deep support among metro Detroit’s business elite.

No well-known candidates had filed paperwork to challenge Duggan as of Friday, though the filing deadline is in May. The only candidate to file papers to run is Devonna Harvey, president and CEO of a nonprofit organization that teaches young people about financial literacy and entrepreneurialism.

► Related: Detroit reaches milestone in bankruptcy recovery

“Maybe nobody wants the job,” Duggan said in jest. But, he added: “The mayor of Detroit is always a hotly contested race, and if I run next year I expect it will be a hotly contested race.”

Political analysts say they’re not hearing who might step into the ring.

Darci McConnell, president of McConnell Communications who has consulted on several political campaigns, said conventional wisdom is “you try to build a name for yourself a year ahead of the race,” having behind-the-scenes talks with unions, grassroots organizations or business groups to get a candidate’s name out and attract media attention.

“It’s always frightening when someone tries to do that at the 11th hour,” McConnell said. “Usually it’s a recipe for failure. That doesn’t mean it can’t be done, but you’ll work twice as hard and it costs a lot more.”

► Related: In Cleveland, a sneak peek at Michigan governor race?

Jamaine Dickins, who consulted on Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon’s unsuccessful bid against Duggan in 2013, had a different take on the race.

“I believe that the next serious candidate for mayor doesn’t know that he’s the next person, and generally is disinterested in the job,” Dickins said. “He would have to be convinced to run.”

Napoleon told the Free Press he’s not up for a rematch if Duggan runs again.

► Related: Kildee, Whitmer use DNC to test waters for 2018 Michigan governor run

Potential candidates also could be hedging their bets, waiting until Duggan announces he's running for mayor — or not — before they test the waters, analysts said. But it could also be that Duggan's performance, so far, is widely seen as strong, leaving potential contenders unwilling to challenge a popular incumbent.

Clouds linger over administration

Duggan acknowledges there's much more work to be done in fixing the city, and high on that list is stabilizing neighborhoods battered by blight, especially after the national recession and subprime mortgage loan crisis left thousands of homes abandoned and commercial strips boarded up and decaying. Lack of significant change in the neighborhoods is a frequent criticism of Detroit mayors, Duggan included.

But there’s one bigger cloud hanging over the Duggan administration. The federal government is investigating a spike in costs for the Detroit Land Bank Authority’s housing demolition program and questions about awarding of “unit price” contracts to three companies that included pre-bid discussion of contract prices before the bids were opened to the public.

Federal investigators from the Office of the Special Inspector General of the federal Troubled Asset Relief Program and the FBI are looking into the practices. SIGTARP is the federal agency that monitors spending money from the Hardest Hit Fund, which has provided Detroit more than $250 million to fight blight.

Duggan said his administration has pledged complete cooperation with the investigation.

Susan Demas, a Lansing political analyst and editor of Inside Michigan Politics, said that if that investigation turns into a larger scandal or another one develops, that could hurt Duggan’s chances, along with unforeseen events such as a downturn in the city’s fragile economy, or if private-sector development pulls out of the city.

Even so, she said, Duggan cut his political teeth in Wayne County and is no stranger to political volatility or financial challenges.

“I grew up in Chicago with two Daleys, and to me Mike Duggan is cut from the same cloth,” Demas said. “There are always rumors, and there are always enemies, but nobody can figure out how to beat candidates like this. And they always seem to escape the cloud of suspicion. And they have reputations for getting things done and cutting through the red tape of bureaucracy.”

That reputation as a Mr. Fix It wizard of turnarounds was a large part of Duggan’s campaign for office in 2013, when opponents got him kicked off the ballot because he had not yet lived in the city for a year — as required by the city’s charter — when he filed petition signatures to run.

Duggan then ran a write-in campaign and defeated Napoleon.

Analysts mentioned Napoleon as a potential candidate, along with others who have strong name recognition in Detroit, including state Sen. Coleman Young II, D-Detroit.

Young, for his part, said he hasn’t made a decision about his future, but he’s term-limited in the Senate in 2018 and options include running for a seat in the state House.

“I’m going to keep my options open,” Young said. But he, too, said he hasn’t heard of anyone taking a serious look at running for mayor.

Political consultant Greg Bowens, who was affiliated with a pro-Napoleon super PAC in 2013, said the lack of early challengers may also be because of Duggan’s ability to manage expectations about the city’s turnaround, staying low-key and touting his administration’s successes so far.

Bowens said Duggan has also done something no mayor in recent memory has done — make race a non-issue in mayoral politics.

“He hasn’t given any would-be political opponents anything to galvanize around against him,” Bowens, who served as spokesman for former Mayor Dennis Archer. "He’s largely seen as someone who’s done a really good job. He’s got everything on lock.”

Show me the money

But Lyke Thompson, a Wayne State University professor who directs its Center for Urban studies and teaches a course on Detroit politics, said it's still too early to say whether Duggan might run without a significant challenger.

“He’s been a very strong mayor," Thompson said. "He’s increased the power of the position, and he’s been doing a great deal to move the city forward. Whoever wants to oppose him is going to have to mount a very strong campaign."

Bowens and others say that's nowhere more true that in crucial campaign cash in a race that typically takes several million to run, although the numbers were lower than usual in 2013 given the political uncertainty at a time when Detroit was under the control of a state-appointed emergency manager and careening toward bankruptcy.

Duggan raised about $3 million to run for mayor in 2013, according to Wayne County campaign finance reports. That didn't include millions raised by an independent super PAC that supported Duggan. His candidate committee had nearly $300,000 on hand as of August, records show.

Geoffrey Garfield, who managed Tom Barrow's unsuccessful bid for mayor in 2013, said it would be difficult for anyone to compete against Duggan in fund-raising, suggesting it would cost $4 million to $6 million to launch a credible bid against the incumbent.

The lack of candidates is “acute, and it’s sad," Garfield said. "There’s not a single elected black official who could raise that kind of money. The money is so intimidating and such a reality. ... Money trumps anything.”



Will Lansing, White House call?

With Republicans holding both chambers of the Legislature and the governorship, Duggan is among the most powerful Democrats in the state. As much as he insists he will not run for governor in 2018, his place in the state party is fuel for speculation that he may be urged to run for governor or be tapped for a cabinet job by Hillary Clinton, for whom he is one of the top Democrats leading her Michigan campaign.

Demas said Duggan's protestations aside, "there is steady chatter" that Duggan could be called to Washington by Clinton if she wins, to lead a department such as Housing and Urban Development.

"If the next president of the United States asks you to serve, it’s hard to turn her down,” Demas said.

Duggan's stature among state Democrats "is why so many people are awaiting his signal that he will not run for governor," Demas said. Potential Democrats are nervous that if he were in the field, it would be a quick winnowing process.

Demas said some people who have been testing the governorship waters, including Westland Mayor Bill Wild, would probably bow out if Duggan ran, while others such as Dan Kildee and Gretchen Whitmer wouldn’t fold right away.

"But they’re smart enough to know that the task of beating Mike Duggan isn’t an easy one,” Demas said.

Duggan said the speculation is for naught.

“I’m not going to Lansing and I’m not going to Washington," he said. "Neither one of them has appeal to me at all. The last political job I’ll ever have is mayor of the City of Detroit."

Duggan has frequently said one of the main standards on which his first term will be judged is on whether his administration's efforts stop and even reverse the city's decades-long loss of population. And indeed census numbers are showing that may be attainable.

The most recent census estimates from July 2015 pegged the city’s population at 677,116, a loss of 3,107 residents from the previous year, the lowest number in decades.

Duggan said he expects to see a rise in population with the next census estimates next spring. But he said that metric isn't the only one he'll be judged by.

“My feeling’s been the same all along: If the people Detroit are behind me, I will run again," Duggan said. "If they seem to want someone else, I won't. Right now people in the city seem enormously supportive of me."

Contact Matt Helms: 313-222-1450 or mhelms@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter: @matthelms.