One of the tragedies of Brexit is so many powerful UK institutions which should have been making the case against Brexit have stayed mute or, at best, pussyfooted around the topic, uttering woolly statements like “we foresee great challenges” or “we see big hurdles to overcome”—instead of telling the government that Brexit will be a multi-year train crash.

I know from having worked in industry that there’s an unwritten code of conduct that business and industry conduct opposition to a government policy in private, face-to-face meetings and do not wage open warfare in the media.

Hence there has been little overt criticism of Brexit from the high heidians in the whisky industry, despite the probable dire consequences for Scotch. However, I hear plenty of adverse comment from some smaller blenders and exporters.

One spoke about their feeling of helplessness, especially since Chancellor Sajid Javid’s interview in the Financial Times in January stating Brexit would mean new barriers and paperwork when dealing with the EU—and business had better get used to it.

The exporter said that, currently, a pallet of bottled whisky, or a tanker full of blend, can move from an authorised depot in Scotland to any authorised EU depot with just one document, the EMCS. After Brexit, there will be three or four documents, covering UK depot to the docks, shipment across to docks in the EU, then another document, possibly two, covering movement from the docks to the final country. All will means hours of work, big hassle and extra costs.

The exporter said business was already erratic, as EU importers had imported tons of Scotch whisky before the original March 31, 2019, deadline—meaning turnover from April onwards was stagnant. Worse, ever more EU customers are importing whisky from other countries, or producing it themselves, and Brexit will only exacerbate this switch.

Adding to industry woes is Trump imposing a 25% tariff hike on Scotch single malts, and threatening a second 25% hike on top. Yet Boris is still projecting a bonanza trade deal with the US…

True, Scotch’s global repute will ensure continuing demand for it, but worldwide tariffs and red tape will raise prices and lower demand. That is hardly the new golden era promised by the Brexiters.