But Americans just voted for change -- a very big and unpredictable change -- in the form of Donald Trump. That doesn't really compute: a popular outgoing president usually gives his party's nominee a leg up. It just didn't happen this time around.

The question is why? Was it because there was little affection for Hillary Clinton, even as a vessel for continuing Obama's policies? Was it because people simply liked Obama better than their electoral options and he suddenly seemed more appealing when largely off the main stage?

AD

AD

Both of those are plausible explanations that have merit and probably contributed to what happened three weeks ago. But here's another theory that is undersold:

The same Quinnipiac poll shows opinions of Obama's stewardship of the economy are more positive than negative. Forty four percent think his policies have helped the economy, while 38 percent think they have hurt. Another 16 percent say Obama's policies have made no difference either way.

The very next question, though, is more illustrative -- and more negative. Quinnipiac asked whether people thought Obama's policies had helped their own personal financial situation. There, positive reviews fell by half, to just 21 percent, while significantly more -- 33 percent -- say Obama's policies have hurt them personally.

AD

The reason for that big decline? Democrats and independents. Among Democrats, 84 percent think Obama has helped the economy, but just 46 percent think he has helped the economy for them. And while 44 percent of independents say Obama improved the nation's economic picture, just 19 percent say he improved their own.

AD

This is largely about people moving from the "Obama helped" column to the "Obama made no difference" column, but it's somewhat telling when it comes to comparing his personal popularity to the results of the 2016 election. Trump's win wasn't a large-scale rebuke of Obama's policies -- Clinton won the popular vote, after all -- but it did reflect lingering uneasiness with the direction in which our country's political leaders have taken us. The status quo was largely fine, and Obama is an affable and likable politician whose personal appeal has persisted even as his policies have come under fire in recent years.

But stagnation loomed in Americans' views of their personal situations. And that helps explain why the economically struggling Rust Belt delivered Trump the presidency.

AD

As I've written before, there were plenty of people who liked Obama just fine but voted for Trump in the 2016 election -- 17 percent of Trump's base of support, in fact, according to a poll from The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Many of these voters appeared to be at least somewhat loyal to the Republican Party but thought Obama was a fine president.