Morgan Baskin

It's no secret that Millennials have an impact on the 2016 presidential race -- just ask Bernie Sanders. But a new analysis of polling data shows where they might impact it the most.

Compiled by Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), and published by NPR this week, the data compares voter data, state voting laws, issues key to the Millennial voting bloc and 2012 election results to gauge how meaningful the demo will be come November, and in which states it could help sway the election.



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The 10 states where Millennials could sway the presidential election this year, according to CIRCLE? In order from most to least important: Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada.

All of those states except Pennsylvania were swing states in the 2012 election.

Millennials -- defined by the Census Bureau as those born between 1982 and 2000 -- are now the largest share of voting-age people in the country, according to Bloomberg, so it's no surprise that their votes will matter. Some have already made their voices heard in the 2016 primary elections: In Iowa's Feb. 1 contest, where 84% of Millennials voted Sanders, the Democratic race was essentially a dead tie. Twenty-seven percent of Republican millennials voted for Cruz, who won the state by 4%.

And in the Feb. 9 New Hampshire primary exit polls, 83% of 18- to 29-year-old Democrats voted for Sanders, who ended up winning the primary by a 22% margin, and 38% of 18- to 29-year-old Republicans voted for Trump, who won with 35% of the vote -- a roughly 19% margin over John Kasich.

However, though the Millennial voice was clear in Nevada's Feb. 20 and 23 primaries -- 82% of Democratic Millennials voted for Sanders, an NBC exit poll says -- Clinton won the state by about 6%. Likewise, though the largest percentage of Millennials voted Rubio -- 37% -- Trump trumped a second-place Rubio by 22%.

But sheer numbers won't sway the election -- Millennials have to participate. In the 2014 mid-term Congressional and state elections, young voters set a record for the lowest youth voter turnout ever recorded. If politicians want to take advantage of the Millennial voting bloc, they must first convince them to come out and vote.

The next two swing state contests will be held March 1 (Super Tuesday, for the policy wonk) in Virginia and Colorado.



Contributing: Brooke Fox

Morgan Baskin is a student at George Washington University and a USA TODAY intern.

This story originally appeared on the USA TODAY College blog, a news source produced for college students by student journalists. The blog closed in September of 2017.