Michelle R. Martinelli

For The Win

Yes, yes, we know is still way too early to try and guess which four teams will advance to the College Football Playoff this year. But that didn't stop us from writing about it in the preseason or after Week 1, so we're carrying on after Week 2.

Going into a relatively underwhelming schedule of games for the second week of college football, Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma had the top four chances, respectively, to make it into the playoff. All four teams won their Week 2 matchups, but there's a different group at the top with the best chances, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor.

With a formula created by ESPN's Sports Analytics, here are the four (but really five) teams with the best chances of making the College Football Playoff after the second week.

1. Alabama (2-0)

Playoff: 68 percent

Championship game: 44 percent

Win championship: 27 percent

2. Ohio State (2-0)

Playoff: 57 percent

Championship game: 34 percent

Win championship: 18 percent

3. Clemson (2-0)

Playoff: 52 percent

Championship game: 26 percent

Win championship: 11 percent

T-4. Oklahoma (2-0)

Playoff: 50 percent

Championship game: 25 percent

Win championship: 13 percent

T-4. Georgia (2-0)

Playoff: 50 percent

Championship game: 27 percent

Win championship: 14 percent

After Alabama crushed Arkansas State, 57-7, the Crimson Tide's playoff chances moved up from 65 percent last week, and the team's chance for repeating as national champions is up slightly from 25 percent. Still No. 1.

(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

Ohio State is the newcomer here following the Buckeyes' easy 52-3 win over Rutgers. After Week 1, they had a 43 percent chance of sneaking into the playoff, making one of the biggest jumps on the list.

While Clemson survived a thrilling nail-biter on the road against Texas A&M, 28-26, the Tigers' chances of making the playoff dipped from 57 percent as they dropped from the No. 2 spot on this list. Still, the top four is the top four.

Led by quarterback Kyler Murray, Oklahoma remains in the No. 4 spot, but the Sooners' playoff chances were bumped up from 45 percent last week. However, Georgia made a move, scooting up from the No. 6 spot with a 27 percent playoff chance after Week 1 to tie Oklahoma.

(Brett Deering/Getty Images)

But after the top four spots (though they include five teams), there is a huge drop-off.

Penn State is the sixth team on the list with a 27 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, followed by Notre Dame - which had a 57 percent chance last week - at 23 percent, Stanford at 13 percent, Washington at 11 percent and Auburn at 10 percent.

You can see ESPN's full top-25 Playoff Predictor list here, where every other team is in single digits, if not less than that.

As ESPN previously explained before the season started, this formula is based on a number of different factors, including how the selection committee has acted in the last four years.

It also considers strength of record, number of losses, conference championships, independent status (because, Notre Dame) and the Football Power Index (FPI) - which gauges how well teams are playing based on expectations, or, basically how good each team is.

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