Researchers at the University of Iowa submitted a report to Gov. Kim Reynolds’ administration that presented state public health officials with predictions on COVID-19 activity in Iowa, including expected hospitalizations and deaths.

The governor's office has yet to release the report publicly.

Joe Cavanaugh, head of the biostatistics department at the university’s College of Public Health, told the Des Moines Register that the report given to the Iowa Department of Public Health includes “Iowa-specific models” using data from publicly available sources.

Cavanaugh confirmed the report’s existence to the Register on Thursday afternoon. The Register has since made multiple requests to IDPH for the report, which has not been made public.

More:The latest on coronavirus in Iowa

Pat Garrett, a spokesman for Reynolds, said on Monday morning in an email that the governor's office and state public health officials are "in the process of reviewing the model" and plan to "share this information with the public."

It’s unclear exactly how long state officials have had the report. On Monday, Sarah Reisetter, the deputy director for the Iowa public health department, said her staff received the report, which she called a white paper, "early last week."

The full scope of the report is unclear, but it may offer the public some clues on Iowa's direction in combating the respiratory illness.

Cavanaugh’s team has been developing COVID-19 modeling for the department as part of a contract signed earlier this month. This report is separate from that work, which is expected to include more IDPH data, according to Cavanaugh. He said in an email that they pursued the extra research “to assist IDPH in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Iowa has recorded a large increase in COVID-19 cases in recent days, as officials ramp up testing in areas with suspected outbreaks. On Saturday, the state reported 648 new cases, a record for one-day increases.

Dr. Caitlin Pedati, Iowa's state medical director and epidemiologist, implied on Thursday during a news conference that predictive information around COVID-19 activity in Iowa is not yet available.

"We're still working on putting together some Iowa specific numbers and when we have that we'll be making it available," she said.

On Friday, Reynolds announced plans to start reopening sectors of the economy like elective surgeries and farmers markets. It's unclear whether the report played any role in Reynolds' decision-making. On Monday, she announced additional plans to reopen businesses in certain parts of the state.

"It will be done in a responsible and safe manner," Reynolds said on Friday about reopening plans, "but we are at a place where it’s time to start having that discussion."

The state public health department has not responded to multiple requests for comment. Garrett with Reynolds’ office did not respond to additional questions about the state's timeline for sharing the information.

Researchers have three-phase project

According to Cavanaugh, UI researchers are conducting a three-phase project for the state on COVID-19. The report they submitted is helping researchers complete that work.

The report with "Iowa-specific models” from publicly available sources is similar to national models that have predicted hospitalizations, intensive care beds, ventilator needs and deaths, according to Cavanaugh.

"We have formulated three modeling frameworks based on different paradigms with complementary objectives," Cavanaugh said in an email to the Register about the report. "These endeavors have been largely completed and the results have been shared with the Iowa Department of Public Health."

Reisetter, at a news conference on Monday, repeated that Cavanaugh's report was based on publicly available data and was not based on "Iowa-specific information." Cavanaugh said the available report included “Iowa-specific models."

Cavanaugh reiterated this point to the Register on Monday after the governor's news conference. He said the "modeling results and projections" in the report "were focused on the state of Iowa."

Cavanaugh said his team also turned in another report, as part of the first phase of its work, that critiqued a frequently cited model developed by researchers at the University of Washington.

The model, known as the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model or IHME, has been providing national and state-specific projections for COVID-19. For weeks, Reynolds and public health officials said the model did not take into account the state's mitigation efforts in closing businesses and schools. Reynolds ultimately has resisted calls to issue a statewide order for Iowans to stay home for non-essential travel.

Dr. Theo Vos, a professor of health metrics sciences at IHME, helped develop the widely-cited model. He said If an area hasn’t peaked in its number of cases, don’t lift restrictions.

"I think you could easily predict that with still a reasonable number of new infected cases in the community, and the number of cases still probably being on the rise and not having peaked yet, I think if you start lifting restrictions that you're going to be in trouble," he said.

The Register has requested the two reports from the University of Iowa. A spokeswoman for the university said it's reviewing the request.

The third phase of the project, according to Cavanaugh, is to refine the state-specific models using data prepared by IDPH "so that the models are uniquely tailored to Iowa."

Reisetter noted the same point at the news conference on Monday, implying that only the third phase of the research will have new or relevant data for IDPH.

Cavanaugh said on Monday that researchers hope to have "initial results" of the third phase "within the next two weeks."

Researchers are also developing an application that will allow IDPH "to provide inputs based on various mitigation measures (e.g., social distancing, face masks, face shields) to assess their future impact," according to Cavanaugh.

Amy McCoy, a spokeswoman for the state’s public health department, did not respond to multiple requests for comment over several days.

State officials see limits to modeling

Department public health officials have indicated that they view state-specific modeling as one tool in determining their next policy decisions. Pedati noted that such modeling is limited, and the department is reviewing publicly available data while communicating with federal and local public health officials.

"It's a helpful tool but it can change, depending on personal actions and what we all do to help limit the spread of the virus," she said on Thursday.

Pedati made the remarks alongside Reynolds, who added that a newly announced testing initiative will also help state officials monitor potential COVID-19 clusters. The $26 million program, led by Utah-based companies that actor and Iowa native Ashton Kutcher suggested to the governor, involves getting Iowans to voluntarily complete health assessments online.

"That's gonna help drive some of the metrics that we use," she said.

Reynolds and state public health officials have not yet released modeling about COVID-19 predictions in Iowa, which was first detected on March 8. That's a contrast to some neighboring Midwest states including Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Reisetter said Friday that Iowa is likely to see a peak in COVID-19 cases "in the next two to three weeks" as testing improves. She made a nearly identical claim on March 29, nearly four weeks ago.

On April 1, Reynolds' chief of staff told some lawmakers that state modeling from the University of Iowa would be released sometime during the week of April 6.

On April 7, around the time that Reynolds' aide had committed to sharing information publicly and one month after the state reported its first three cases, the public health department finalized a contract with the university to begin the forecasting work. Reynolds later told reporters that communication over the modeling had been ongoing before the contract was signed.

Register reporter Nick Coltrain contributed to this report.

Barbara Rodriguez covers health care and politics for the Register. She can be reached by email at bcrodriguez@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8011. Follow her on Twitter @bcrodriguez.

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