Will the polls remain high enough to help John Key elected to a fourth term?

OPINION: National has done everything possible this year to set itself up for the opposition benches.

It's mismanaged a number of things and stumbled around in the dark. But does middle New Zealand give a damn?

Has it registered with busy, hard-working voters? Is there suddenly a mood for change?

I don't see it.

Last weekend, National scored a remarkable 47.3 per cent in the 3 News poll, the same result it got on election night a year ago.

It was a stunning result and shows prime minister John Key still has a vice-like grip on middle New Zealand, despite not being personally as popular as he was.

But he's hardly helped himself.

The Prime Minister has pulled ponytails – and got away with it.

Yes, he was too slow to accept Syrian refugees but his u-turn was accepted.

On the flag front – he's totally fluffed it.

More than two thirds of voters want to keep the current flag and his flip-flop this week shows the PM is now being governed by Facebook and other social media tools.

It makes a mockery of the process, but at the same time was probably the right thing to do.

He and his party also made muppets of themselves in the Northland by-election.

The Christchurch rebuild has slowed. Auckland's housing market may have peaked.

The Budget surplus has probably gone, though I doubt voters lie awake at night worried.

So here's the one that really matters to people – the economy is slowing fast.

Business confidence is poor and sliding and it must be National's biggest concern. Its grip on power is now vulnerable as the economy turns.

But despite all this Key is still head and shoulders above his rivals.

The average of all the public polls in the market has National at about the same as election night, 47 per cent, according to pollster David Farrar.

So where is Labour at?

Labour is polling better than a year ago, but the same as three months ago, at 32 per cent.

Leader Andrew Little is definitely more credible than David Cunliffe – he's growing into the job pretty well.

And he appears to be his own man.

Under Little, Labour looks more hungry and more organised and Little has time.

But, and this is a big but, Little and his party have not yet tapped into the mood for change like Key did in 2007 against Helen Clark.

Doing this is crucial – and Labour really needs the economy to turn sour.

It needs job losses, but it can't be seen to be talking the country into recession either. It must stay positive at the same time.

They need to now promote Jacinda Arden who last week appeared in the unprompted preferred PM rankings.

She should replace current deputy, Annette King.

King is strong, popular and performs, and my sources tell me there are some who want her to stay as number 2.

But Labour needs to excite the public and signal change and that's where Ardern comes in.

But Labour still has a huge battle.

Key straddles both sides of the centre superbly and this has made him New Zealand's most popular prime minister in history.

He has increased benefits, extended free healthcare for children and he's extended paid parental leave – and even if he's taken these policies from others, voters don't care.

Yes, he has more detractors now and he's also become more polarising,but that happens.

On these numbers he could still squeak in for a fourth term.

For Labour, its challenge is about support. It needs more. It won't govern at 32 per cent.

It has two years to find 150,000 extra votes from the centre and take them off National if it is to have a chance of winning the next election.

Don't rely on Winston. That doesn't work.

Labour needs a weakening economy to help it along. National needs things to stay the same.