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1. Year zero and new blood

It made sense that Louisiana Tech played Illinois in December's Heart of Dallas Bowl. While a lot of programs are glacial in their movement, the Bulldogs and Fighting Illini are comets. The 2014 season was the first in 10 seasons of F/+ ratings that Illinois' ranking didn't change at least 22 spots.

Louisiana Tech is just about the same. Since 2006, the Bulldogs have ranked as high as 34th in F/+ and as low as 117th. They've won eight or more games four times and four or fewer three times. In their last three years, they've gone from 46th and 9-3 to 116th and 4-8 to 35th and 9-5.

TL;DR Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports



2014 F/+ ranking and record: 35 (9-5)



5-year recruiting ranking: 81



Biggest strength: One of the best secondaries in the country



Biggest question mark: How well can a secondary do when you have to replace a stud defensive coordinator and most of your front seven?



Biggest 2015 game: at Rice (Oct. 31)



In one sentence: Louisiana Tech should remain aggressive, but with defensive losses, there might be a little more bad excitement. : 35 (9-5): 81: One of the best secondaries in the country: How well can a secondary do when you have to replace a stud defensive coordinator and most of your front seven?: at Rice (Oct. 31)Louisiana Tech should remain aggressive, but with defensive losses, there might be a little moreexcitement.

In Skip Holtz's first year, Tech beat Lamar and three FBS teams that combined for a 4-32 record. And the Bulldogs barely beat UTEP.

Their rebound, then, was a combination of the Year Zero effect and a little bit of new blood.

Skip's father Lou is the quintessential Year Zero example -- he went 4-7 in his first year at Minnesota before improving by two games, he went 5-6 in his first year at Notre Dame before improving by three (and then by four more the next year), and he of course went 0-11 at South Carolina in 1999 before going 17-7 in 2000-01. The Holtz name is a constant reminder that things can change drastically between a coach's first and second year. And two newcomers helped a natural turnaround pick up velocity.

First, you had defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. Once one of the brightest young names in coaching, Diaz experienced great success in his first year at Texas before struggling with an injury-depleted unit and getting scapegoated a bit. He landed at Tech, where he found a wealth of experienced athletes he could use aggressively. His first Tech defense created havoc everywhere, forced a load of turnovers, and improved from 109th in Def. S&P+ to 24th.

Second, you had Iowa transfer Cody Sokol, who won the starting quarterback job and thrived. Sokol and a big-play run game helped second-year offensive coordinator Tony Petersen turn the offense around almost as dramatically, from 124th in Off. S&P+ to 51st.

Diaz and Sokol were only one-year fixes, however. Sokol graduated, and Diaz took the coordinator job at Mississippi State. They gave Tech a push, and without them we'll see if the Bulldogs can do something they haven't done particularly well in recent years: sustain momentum.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-5 | Adj. Record: 9-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 35 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Adj. Scoring

Margin Win

Expectancy 30-Aug at Oklahoma 19 16-48 L 5% -38.8 0% 6-Sep at UL-Lafayette 72 48-20 W 88% 27.5 98% 11-Sep at North Texas 125 42-21 W 91% 31.4 100% 20-Sep Northwestern State N/A 27-30 L 28% -13.8 71% 27-Sep at Auburn 7 17-45 L 20% -19.6 1% 4-Oct UTEP 90 55-3 W 99% 55.9 100% 18-Oct UTSA 109 27-20 W 50% -0.1 74% 25-Oct at Southern Miss 110 31-20 W 62% 6.9 97% 1-Nov Western Kentucky 50 59-10 W 97% 45.7 100% 8-Nov at UAB 79 40-24 W 90% 29.8 100% 22-Nov at Old Dominion 108 27-30 L 34% -9.7 34% 29-Nov Rice 86 76-31 W 96% 41.4 100% 6-Dec at Marshall 17 23-26 L 74% 15.2 46% 26-Dec vs. Illinois 78 35-18 W 62% 7.3 87%

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 31.6 51 21.8 24 Points Per Game 37.4 14 24.7 39

2. Variance

From last year's preview:

Even a dramatically improved Tech is likely to start 1-4. If the Bulldogs can survive a gauntlet of trips to Oklahoma, Louisiana-Lafayette (the Sun Belt favorite), North Texas (a potential C-USA West favorite), and Auburn with some semblance of confidence, the last seven games could produce five wins and bowl eligibility.

Technically, I was only one game off. I thought Tech would start 1-4, and the Bulldogs started 2-3. But things didn't play out in a predictable manner. The Bulldogs got rocked by Oklahoma and Auburn as expected and also lost to the one team I thought they'd beat, Northwestern State, thanks to a minus-5 turnover margin. But they also played like a 90th-percentile team (~top 15 or so) in routing UL-Lafayette and North Texas on the road.

By the time the season ended, Tech's ceiling and floor were about as far apart as you could get.

Average Percentile Performance (6 best games) : 94% (~top 8)

: 94% (~top 8) Average Percentile Performance (4 worst games): 22% (~top 100)

Every team creates a range over the course of 12 to 14 games, but that's a chasm. That's the difference between playing like Auburn and playing like Florida Atlantic. And three of Tech's six best performances came one game after one of the Bulldogs' worst performances. The results reflected this silliness: Tech lost to Northwestern State and Old Dominion but won the Conference USA West and damn near beat Marshall in Huntington in the conference title game.

Most of this came from the offense. Diaz's defense allowed between 5.5 (solid) and 3.5 (great) yards per play in 11 of 14 games, but the offense was all over the place: 3.8 per play against Oklahoma, 7.8 against UL-Lafayette, 7.4 against UTEP, 4.1 against USA, 5.0 against ODU (which had an atrocious defense), 9.5 against Rice. The offense was far less experienced than the defense, so this makes a little bit of sense.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.00 7 IsoPPP+ 104.7 59 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 40.7% 76 Succ. Rt. + 96.0 83 FIELD POSITION Def. Avg. FP 30.6 81 Def. FP+ 99.0 77 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.8 28 Redzone S&P+ 105.8 51 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 29.0 ACTUAL 26 -3.0

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 65 69 92 59 RUSHING 88 71 105 42 PASSING 46 70 75 71 Standard Downs 69 87 58 Passing Downs 57 89 54

Q1 Rk 63 1st Down Rk 96 Q2 Rk 79 2nd Down Rk 66 Q3 Rk 50 3rd Down Rk 44 Q4 Rk 56

3. Big plays make everything okay

The major reason for Tech's offensive instability: big plays. The Bulldogs were incredibly reliant on them.

They had 75 gains of 20-plus yards (18th in the country), but they were not evenly distributed. Kenneth Dixon, Jarred Craft, and Sokol all showed open-field explosiveness; each averaged more than 6 highlight yards per opportunity (anything over 5 is good), but combined, only 33 percent of their carries gained at least five yards. Meanwhile, Sokol had just enough mistakes (13 interceptions) and misfires (58 percent completion rate) to slow down the attack.

When you bust a big play, you cover up a lot of weaknesses. But waiting for a big play can be like waiting for the subway on off hours: maybe you get lucky, but you could end up waiting a long time.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Cody Sokol

260 448 3436 30 13 58.0% 18 3.9% 7.1 Jeff Driskel (Florida) 6'4, 234 Sr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9915 114 212 1140 9 10 53.8% 10 4.5% 4.8 Ryan Higgins 6'2, 208 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8088 6 10 69 0 0 60.0% 0 0.0% 6.9 Taylor Burch

4 6 26 0 0 66.7% 0 0.0% 4.3 Price Wilson 6'1, 200 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8038

















Alex Woodall 6'3, 225 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8256

















J'mar Smith 6'1, 225 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8463



















4. Hello, Jeff

In 2013, three-star freshman Ryan Higgins got an extended stay with the first string but didn't take advantage. He completed 59 percent of his passes but averaged just 10.3 yards per completion, threw 13 interceptions to just six touchdowns, took sacks on one of every 12 passes (while throwing mostly short passes), and produced a passer rating above a mediocre 115 just twice in nine games. Holtz found a stopgap in Sokol.

Perhaps Higgins is ready to shine, but just in case, Holtz brought in a high-profile safety valve. You last saw Jeff Driskel attempting to drag the carcass of Florida's offense down the field against East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl; in three years as an on-and-off starter, Driskel proved reasonably mobile, smart, and injury-prone. He lost his job to freshman Treon Harris on a couple of occasions, saw the writing on the wall when a new coaching staff came in, and packed his bags.

Starting to figure Ruston out. Love it so far — Jeff Driskel (@jeffdriskel) March 8, 2015

Driskel never flashed too much of the four- to five-star potential the recruiting services said he had, but Sokol hadn't exactly lit the world afire before coming to Tech, either. A fresh start can work wonders.

Whoever wins won't have the hardest job in the world: hand the ball to Kenneth Dixon, run just enough keepers to keep the defense honest, and throw quick passes to Trent Taylor and Paul Turner. And if he can build a connection with all-or-nothing receiving threat Carlos Henderson (eight catches for 307 yards against UTEP, Rice, and Illinois; 21 catches for 262 yards against everybody else) and fellow sophomores Marlon Watts and Marcus Gaines, that's even better.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Kenneth Dixon RB 5'10, 212 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8437 254 1299 22 5.1 6.1 37.0% 5 4 Jarred Craft RB 6'0, 215 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7793 83 294 4 3.5 6.5 24.1% 0 0 Cody Sokol QB

35 161 2 4.6 9.5 25.7% 8 3 Blake Martin RB 5'10, 196 Sr. NR NR 31 195 1 6.3 6.1 41.9% 0 0 Tevin King WR

21 101 0 4.8 4.0 47.6% 1 1 Carlos Henderson WR 5'11, 185 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8213 17 75 1 4.4 5.6 41.2% 1 1 Marlon Seets RB 5'10, 219 Sr. NR NR 7 14 1 2.0 0.9 14.3% 0 0 Hunter Lee WR

5 18 0 3.6 2.5 20.0% 0 0 Ryan Higgins QB 6'2, 208 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8088 5 17 0 3.4 1.8 40.0% 0 0 Jaqwis Dancy RB 5'11, 190 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8162















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate %SD Yds/

Target NEY Real Yds/

Target RYPR Trent Taylor WR 5'8, 175 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8007 97 64 834 66.0% 22.0% 50.5% 8.6 64 8.5 92.8 Paul Turner WR 5'11, 190 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8684 67 42 514 62.7% 15.2% 62.7% 7.7 4 7.6 57.1 Hunter Lee WR

54 29 338 53.7% 12.2% 57.4% 6.3 -26 6.3 37.6 Carlos Henderson WR 5'11, 185 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8213 47 29 569 61.7% 10.7% 57.4% 12.1 216 12.1 63.3 Sterling Griffin WR

46 29 408 63.0% 10.4% 34.8% 8.9 56 7.9 45.4 Kenneth Dixon RB 5'10, 212 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8437 43 30 385 69.8% 9.8% 65.1% 9.0 28 8.4 42.8 Marlon Watts WR 6'2, 175 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7652 18 9 106 50.0% 4.1% 55.6% 5.9 -9 5.7 11.8 Marcus Gaines WR 5'6, 150 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7819 17 8 82 47.1% 3.9% 52.9% 4.8 -21 4.7 9.1 Conner Smith WR 6'3, 201 Jr. NR NR 13 7 52 53.8% 2.9% 69.2% 4.0 -36 3.6 5.8 Terome Grant WR

6 4 51 66.7% 1.4% 33.3% 8.5 3 6.9 5.7 Blake Martin RB 5'10, 196 Sr. NR NR 6 4 16 66.7% 1.4% 16.7% 2.7 -32 2.3 1.8 Josh Gaston TE 6'3, 265 Sr. NR NR 5 4 83 80.0% 1.1% 100.0% 16.6 36 N/A 9.2 Ricky Jones TE 6'1, 260 Sr. NR NR 3 2 24 66.7% 0.7% 0.0% 8.0 0 N/A 2.7 Sanford Seay WR 6'2, 206 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8640 Kameron McKnight WR 6'2, 217 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8432 Michael Rodriguez TE 6'6, 250 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7826 Rashid Bonnette WR 6'0, 160 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8479 Javonte Woodard WR 6'0, 188 Fr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8158



Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Career Starts Honors/Notes Mitchell Bell RT 20 2014 1st All-CUSA Jens Danielsen LT 6'4, 283 Sr. NR NR 13 Kirby Wixson C 6'4, 325 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7826 12 Tre Carter LG

12 Darrell Brown LT 6'4, 300 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7000 9 Joseph Brunson RG 6'4, 302 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7923 8 Richard Greenwalt RG

6 David Mahaffey LG 6'4, 310 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8222 3 Josh Robinson RT 6'2, 301 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7000 2 Jeremy Long LG

0 Chris Aye RT 6'4, 277 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7000 0 Cam Manning OL 6'2, 278 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8006 0 Shane Carpenter OL 6'6, 290 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7726

Derek Edinburgh Jr. (LSU) OT 6'8, 331 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8992

O'Shea Dugas OL 6'5, 294 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8381

DeVante Lovett OL 6'6, 287 Fr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8144



5. An unparalleled juggling act (and its effects)

So Tech had a 1,300-yard rusher in Kenneth Dixon and a load of exciting receivers. How were the Bulldogs so reliant on big-play bailouts then?

Youth was a factor -- Henderson, backup running back Jarred Craft, etc., were freshmen.

But the biggest reason probably came up front, where a new offensive line was getting trotted out every week.

Only once all year did Tech start the same linemen for three straight games. The lineup changed in weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, and 13. The sack rates were solid, in part because of the quick-passing nature, but despite Dixon, the run-blocking numbers were horrendous.

That Tech must replace all-conference tackle Mitchell Bell, the line's most constant presence (albeit one who missed three games), isn't a good thing, but last year's juggling has created a large base of experience. Six of the nine who finished with at least two career starts return, and if Tech can maintain mostly the same line from start to finish (and if LSU transfer Derek Edinburgh Jr. plays as well as last year's LSU transfer, Paul Turner), the blocking numbers should improve.

And if that happens, then with the wealth of athleticism that the Bulldogs boast, this offense could become both potent and consistent.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.84 57 IsoPPP+ 123.5 14 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 35.9% 14 Succ. Rt. + 121.0 13 FIELD POSITION Off. Avg. FP 34.7 4 Off. FP+ 110.0 4 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 3.9 25 Redzone S&P+ 111.0 27 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 33.2 ACTUAL 42.0 +8.8

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 35 13 14 14 RUSHING 17 12 16 13 PASSING 91 22 22 19 Standard Downs 12 16 12 Passing Downs 24 18 33

Q1 Rk 13 1st Down Rk 11 Q2 Rk 22 2nd Down Rk 10 Q3 Rk 14 3rd Down Rk 61 Q4 Rk 50

6. Do what Manny did

New defensive coordinator Blake Baker is a fiery young guy, just like Manny Diaz. From the perspective of demeanor, not much will change.

But Diaz is also a proven coordinator. According to Def. S&P+, over his last five full seasons, he has produced a top-50 defense at Middle Tennessee (in 2009), a top-35 defense at Mississippi State (2010), a top-10 defense at Texas (2011), and a top-25 defense at Louisiana Tech.

Diaz's Bulldogs were absurdly aggressive, ranking third in Havoc Rate (21.3 percent), second in tackles for loss (114), first in passes defensed (92), 11th in Stuff Rate (24.6 percent), and 24th in Adj. Sack Rate. Tech ranked 12th in Rushing S&P+, 22nd in Passing S&P+, and 25th in points allowed per scoring opportunity. No matter what you wanted to do, two Tech defenders were there to stop you. There are plenty of good mid-major defenses, but few are this well-rounded.

Not only is the pressure on Baker to avoid a drop-off, Baker will have to figure out a way to attack without five of last year's top eight linemen and all three starting linebackers. Yikes.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Vernon Butler DT 6'3, 309 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7926 14 45.0 5.5% 13.0 1.0 0 1 1 0 Houston Bates DE

14 32.0 3.9% 16.0 10.0 1 2 1 1 Vontarrius Dora DE 6'4, 253 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 10 20.0 2.4% 6.5 4.0 0 1 0 0 DeAngelo Brooks DT

14 18.0 2.2% 3.5 1.0 0 0 0 0 Andre Taylor DE

14 15.0 1.8% 3.5 1.0 0 1 0 0 Devon McKinney DT

14 14.5 1.8% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 Aaron Brown DL 6'1, 270 Jr. NR NR 11 11.0 1.3% 3.5 1.5 0 0 0 0 Mike Schrang DE

14 9.5 1.2% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Deldrick Canty DE 6'2, 250 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8300 10 8.0 1.0% 3.0 2.0 0 0 0 0 Tyler Porter DT 5'11, 318 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 12 2.5 0.3% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 1 Hakim Gray DE 6'3, 269 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8318 Cedric Johnson DT 6'2, 302 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8522 Jaylon Ferguson DE 6'5, 225 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8239 Courtney Wallace DT 6'2, 335 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8377 Jordan Bradford DT 6'2, 270 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8015 La'Dante Davenport DT 6'3, 265 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7994

















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Tony Johnson LB

12 55.5 6.7% 7.0 2.5 0 3 2 0 Terrell Pinson LB

12 44.0 5.3% 7.5 1.5 3 8 1 2 Mitch Villemez LB

13 42.5 5.2% 10.0 3.0 0 2 0 0 Nick Thomason LB 6'1, 237 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8400 14 40.5 4.9% 7.0 1.5 2 0 0 0 C.J. Cleveland LB 6'1, 197 Sr. NR NR 12 34.0 4.1% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Beau Fitte LB 6'0, 217 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7000 13 28.5 3.5% 1.0 0.0 0 3 0 1 Russell Farris LB 5'11, 215 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7900 14 17.5 2.1% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Dillon Williams LB 6'2, 198 Sr. NR NR 14 12.5 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Solomon Hunter LB 6'2, 210 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7856 Quanta Moore LB 6'1, 225 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7693 Colin Scott LB 6'0, 210 Fr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8007 Brandon Durman LB 6'2, 231 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7904 Dante Williams LB 6'1, 209 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7793



















7. Massive rebuild up front

When you are in Louisiana, you don't have an excuse to lack strong athletes in your defensive front seven. Based on last year's production and recruiting rankings, it seems like Tech has plenty of those.

Vernon Butler is a one-man run defense who racked up 12 non-sack tackles for loss; Vontarrius Dora passes the eyeball test and was a decent complementary pass rusher; Nick Thomason had seven tackles for loss and two picks as the top backup linebacker. Beau Fitte broke up three passes in limited opportunities. And Tech boasts five young linemen and one linebacker who was deemed a three-star recruit by either Rivals or the 247Sports Composite.

If players like Hakim Gray, Cedric Johnson, and Solomon Hunter are ready for large roles, all could be well.

But that's a significant "if." In Houston Bates, Tech must replace one of the best all-around mid-major ends in the country, one who completely dominated his former team, Illinois, in the bowl game. And in Tony Johnson, Terrell Pinson, and Mitch Villemez, the Bulldogs must replace a starting linebacking corps that compiled 24.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, three picks, 13 break-ups, and three forced fumbles.

Diaz had pieces to use and used them well. Now Baker has to prove himself on the latter while figuring out if he has the former.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Kentrell Brice S 5'11, 198 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8206 14 75.5 9.2% 4 4 2 5 4 0 Xavier Woods S 5'11, 188 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8241 14 61.5 7.5% 3.5 1 6 7 3 0 Le'Vander Liggins CB

14 50.5 6.1% 3 1 3 9 1 0 Adairius Barnes CB 5'11, 186 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8454 14 38.0 4.6% 4 0 5 9 0 0 Bryson Abraham CB 5'9, 174 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7000 13 35.5 4.3% 6.5 0 2 7 0 0 Lloyd Grogan S 6'1, 211 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8470 13 33.0 4.0% 1 0 0 2 0 0 Colby Brown CB

14 17.5 2.1% 0 0 2 1 0 0 Secdrick Cooper S 6'0, 192 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7444 14 12.5 1.5% 1 1 0 1 0 0 Michael Mims DB 5'11, 198 So. NR N/A 14 11.0 1.3% 2 1 0 0 0 0 Jabari Prewitt CB

14 10.0 1.2% 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 Roland Dunn CB 5'10, 170 So. NR N/A 10 3.5 0.4% 0 0 0 2 0 0 Michael Jacob DB 6'0, 170 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7700 Johnny Shaw S 6'0, 188 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8550 Ephraim Kitchen CB 5'10, 170 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8305 Aaron Roberson CB 5'9, 192 Fr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8108 James Jackson S 5'11, 180 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8059 Trey Spencer CB 5'11, 170 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7960



















8. Masters and apprentices

According to the Composite, Tech signed 14 three-star players. Five are freshman defensive backs. Combined with sophomores Secdrick Cooper and Michael Mims, who saw some playing time, there is a pretty awesome young base.

And unlike in the front seven, Tech won't have to immediately find out what it has. Safeties Kentrell Brice and Xavier Woods and corners Adairius Barnes and Bryson Abraham are all back after combining for absurd disruption stats: 18 tackles for loss, five sacks, 15 interceptions, 28 breakups, and seven forced fumbles. That's as good as you're going to find anywhere.

Obviously regression in the front seven could lead to worse numbers for the back four, but I can't even pretend to be concerned about the secondary. It's going to be awesome in 2015, and it'll probably be pretty good in 2016 and beyond.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2015

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Logan McPherson 5'10, 177 Jr. 62 36.8 3 12 14 41.9% Gerald Shouse 6'1, 182 Sr. 6 41.3 0 0 3 50.0%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Kyle Fischer 5'11, 211 Jr. 55 59.5 11 0 20.0% Jonathan Barnes 5'9, 168 So. 38 59.1 4 2 10.5%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Jonathan Barnes 5'9, 168 So. 39-42 9-11 81.8% 3-6 50.0% Kyle Fischer 5'11, 211 Jr. 25-25 2-2 100.0% 3-8 37.5%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Returns Avg. TD Carlos Henderson KR 5'11, 185 So. 33 25.0 1 Tevin King KR 3 30.3 0 Trent Taylor PR 5'8, 175 Jr. 22 7.6 0

Category Rk Special Teams F/+ 65 Field Goal Efficiency 85 Punt Return Efficiency 48 Kick Return Efficiency 3 Punt Efficiency 118 Kickoff Efficiency 56 Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency 31

9. Field position gains and losses

Carlos Henderson was one of the steadiest kick return men in the country. Trent Taylor was solid in the punt returns department. And Kyle Fischer's kickoffs and decent kick coverage made that a decent strength, too.

Now ... fix the punting. In theory, Tech's 2015 offense will be more efficient and require less from the punting game, but turnovers (which have huge field position effects) probably aren't going to bail the Bulldogs out as much on defense, and they're going to need all they can from special teams. That everybody returns is mostly a good thing, but punting needs to improve, and quickly.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. Rk 5-Sep Southern NR 12-Sep at Western Kentucky 50 19-Sep at Kansas State 26 26-Sep Florida International 96 3-Oct UL-Lafayette 72 10-Oct at UTSA 109 17-Oct at Mississippi State 13 24-Oct Middle Tennessee 87 31-Oct at Rice 86 7-Nov North Texas 125 21-Nov at UTEP 90 28-Nov Southern Miss 110

Five-Year F/+ Rk -2.0% (64) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 80 / 81 2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* 16 / 4.2 2014 TO Luck/Game +4.2 Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (7, 5) 2014 Second-order wins (difference) 10.1 (-1.1)

10. Third-worst, then second-best, then ... ?

According to Sports Reference, of Louisiana Tech's 34 seasons at the FBS/I-A level, the Bulldogs' third-worst team took the field in 2013, followed by their second-best in 2014. That makes it hard to figure out the program's trajectory.

This is an optimist-vs.-pessimist team.

The optimist sees a loaded skill position corps, a former blue-chip quarterback, a more stable offensive line, a potential All-American tackle (seriously, Vernon Butler is a bad man), and one of the best secondaries in the country, at either the power-conference or mid-major level.

The pessimist sees a team that surged primarily because of a defense that now must replace a stud coordinator and most of its front seven, not to mention an offense that must replace its quarterback and an offensive line that might not be talented enough to gel.

The optimist sees a schedule that brings Conference USA East dark horse Middle Tennessee to Ruston and avoids Marshall.

The pessimist sees trips to not only Kansas State and Mississippi State, but Western Kentucky and West contender Rice.

When a team has seen such extremes, both from 2013 to 2014 and within 2014 itself, you can talk yourself into anything. I lean toward optimism, but good or bad, there will be big plays.