The House bellwethers shift their tone on impeachment Presented by

A SEISMIC SHIFT -- The impeachment dam is starting to break wide open. Since the Trump administration has refused to hand over a secret whistleblower complaint detailing the president’s communications with Ukraine – and Trump basically admitted he pressed Ukraine to investigate his political rival – we have seen the impeachment dynamic seriously shift inside the Democratic caucus. Need more proof? Just check out what the House’s bellwethers on impeachment are saying:

1.) SWING-DISTRICT DEMOCRATS: One of the chief reasons why Speaker Nancy Pelosi has held off on impeachment is because she wants to protect her so-called majority makers, most of whom have resisted using the “I” word. But that is rapidly changing. A group of seven moderate freshmen with military backgrounds — from former CIA agents to Marine Corps vets — announced in a Washington Post op-ed that they will back impeachment if Trump indeed withheld foreign aid from Ukraine in exchange for a Biden probe. This is a big deal: the tight-knit group, which has long been skeptical of impeachment, has become a credible voice on national security issues inside the Democratic caucus and could have serious sway with other hold-outs.

The crew consists of freshman Reps. Gil Cisneros (Calif.), Jason Crow (Colo.) and Chrissy Houlahan (Pa.); who all represent Clinton-won districts; and Reps. Elaine Luria (Va.), Mikie Sherrill (N.J.), Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Abigail Spanberger (Va.), who all represent super competitive Trump-won districts. Meanwhile, frontliner Rep. Haley Stevens (Mich.) and centrist Reps. Dean Phillips and Annie Craig — who both flipped red seats in Minnesota – have also come out in support of impeachment. Per Kyle, 19 of the 44 Democrats who are considered vulnerable frontliners now favor impeachment proceedings – and more could follow suit, undercutting Pelosi’s argument against impeachment.

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2.) PELOSI'S INNER CIRCLE: The lawmakers who are closest to Pelosi – including some key committee chairmen and members of her leadership team – have consistently echoed the speaker's slow-go approach on impeachment. Instead, they have called for letting the investigations play out. But yesterday, a number of top Pelosi allies jumped on the impeachment bandwagon, and it's unlikely they would have done so without the speaker's blessing.

That includes longtime Reps. John Larson and Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, as well as Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan. All of them had been extremely cautious of impeachment – up until now. “This country is divided. We cannot be divided on the rule of law. As an elected official my oath is to protect national security and the Constitution,” tweeted Dingell, a junior member of Democratic leadership. “After recent revelations, I support an impeachment inquiry because we must follow the facts and hold the President accountable.”

3.) DEMOCRATIC LEADERS: Here’s yet another sign that the political terrain is shifting: Pelosi spent the weekend and Monday working the phones and taking the temperature of her caucus on impeachment, scooped Heather, Sarah and Bres. Democratic leaders recognize that this is a watershed moment for the party, and they know that their “litigate while we legislate” line simply isn’t going to cut it anymore.

So Democratic leadership is weighing a new strategy. Pelosi is expected to more forcefully endorse an impeachment inquiry today, while leaders may also allow a floor vote on a resolution condemning Trump over the Ukraine allegations. And they’re even discussing a “select committee” on impeachment. Pelosi will huddle with the leaders of key committees and then the full House Democratic Caucus later today to discuss their next steps. But several members and aides think Pelosi is more open to the idea of impeachment than ever before. “We will have no choice," Pelosi told CNN’s Jeff Zeleny of launching an impeachment inquiry. "It will be a big week.” Much, much more from our Congress team: https://politi.co/2mGWVdb .

MORE FUEL FOR THE IMPEACHMENT FIRE … “Trump ordered hold on military aid days before calling Ukrainian president, officials say,” via WaPo’s Karoun Demirjian, Josh Dawsey, Ellen Nakashima and Carol D. Leonnig: https://wapo.st/2mInvCS .

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 24: Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff speaks alongside House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Committee Chairman Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), and Judiciary Committee Chair Jerold Nadler (D-NY), at a news conference after the former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's testimony on July 24, 2019 in Washington, DC. Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller testified today before the House Judiciary Committee and dismissed President Trump's claims of total exoneration. (Photo by Alex Wroblewski/Getty Images) | Alex Wroblewski/Getty Images

SIDESTEP IN THE NAME OF TRUMP -- Senate Republicans, meanwhile, did what they do best: ducked and dodged questions from reporters about the latest Trump crisis. Some of them said they hadn’t seen the story or declined to comment, while others were dismissive or expressed caution when discussing the Ukraine allegations. While few GOP lawmakers were willing to criticize Trump, few were forcefully defending him, either.

The bottom line is that Republicans are still scared to cross the president for fear of a pro-Trump primary challenge or nasty tweet. Case in point: after Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) expressed alarm over the whistleblower complaint (though it was hardly a scathing statement), Trump tweeted out a video last night taunting Romney for losing his presidential race. Burgess, James Arkin and Marianne with the dispatch: https://politi.co/2mlnvsa .

Related reads: “Democrats Pressure White House and Republican Senate on the Ukraine Inquiry,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos: https://nyti.ms/2ljlBZ0 ; and “The intelligence watchdog at the center of Ukraine firestorm,” via Natasha Bertrand and Daniel Lippman: https://politi.co/2lkxcXD .

GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, September 24, where your host is glad that "Bachelor in Paradise" ended last week so that her Monday night was free to deal with all of last night's late breaking news.

MONDAY’S MOST CLICKED: The big winner was USA TODAY’s report on how Rep. Susan Wild has made suicide prevention her new mission following her husband’s death.

GUN GUESSING GAME -- So what else is happening on Capitol Hill? Well, not a whole lot if Democrats end up impeaching the president. But in the meantime ... the trio of bipartisan senators who have been negotiating gun reform with the White House said they spoke to Trump yesterday about expanding background checks. And they are expecting to hear from the White House in the next 24 to 48 hours on what the president supports. “The president said we should be able to hear back from his staff tomorrow,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) told reporters yesterday, according to HuffPo’s Igor Bobic.

HERE WE GO AGAIN -- It’s about to feel like Groundhog Day in the Senate: Democrats plan to force another vote this week on killing Trump’s national wall emergency. Under the National Emergencies Act, lawmakers can bring up a vote on the issue every six months. And Democrats are eager to once again put their Republican colleagues on the record over the issue, especially now that the Trump administration has begun raiding money from military projects to build the wall. The Hill’s Jordain Carney has more: http://bit.ly/2mqj0MQ .

Related: “Despite Hit to Alaska, Sullivan Will Again Back Trump's Border Emergency,” via The National Journal’s Zach C. Cohen: http://bit.ly/2miQDjZ .

IN THE CLEAR -- The White House announced Monday that Trump will indeed sign a stop-gap funding bill, providing some cover for Senate Republicans who are about to vote on the continuing resolution this week. The House already passed the bill, which funds the government until Nov. 21 and averts a government shutdown at the end of the month. And the Senate will vote on the spending measure this week. (Though as we noted before, that means the real funding fight will come before Thanksgiving.) The latest from CQ Roll Call’s Jennifer Shutt: http://bit.ly/2mIONZF .

PRIMARY PROBLEMS -- Longtime Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), head of the powerful House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, has become the latest Democratic chairman to draw a primary challenge. Doyle Canning, an attorney and community organizer who is refusing to accept corporate money, officially announced over the weekend that she was challenging DeFazio and called for a progressive agenda. The primary battle could force DeFazio to the left, but that could make his general election even tougher: for the first time, the House GOP’s campaign arm is targeting his seat. More from KLCC FM Public Radio: http://bit.ly/2mm52M7.

Related: “Democrats dread Kennedy-Markey showdown in 2020,” by Julia Manchester and Scott Wong: http://bit.ly/2kMBEON .

CLICK … “Here is the resumé that @RepDougCollins submitted to @GovKemp office to apply to be US senator,” tweeted Greg Bluestien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: http://bit.ly/2mj4c2T .





TRANSITIONS

Erin McBride, formerly deputy press secretary for Rep. David Rouzer (R-N.C.), has joined House Minority Whip Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) office as deputy press secretary.

Sam Lau has started as director of federal advocacy communications at Planned Parenthood. He previously was communications director for the House Budget Committee.

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House gavels in at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. Today’s agenda: http://bit.ly/2kM0VIL .

The Senate meets at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of the nomination of Joseph Cella to be ambassador to the Republic of Fiji. At noon, the Senate will vote on a motion to invoke cloture on the nomination of David Fabian Black to be deputy commissioner of Social Security. The Senate will recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for the weekly party luncheons.

AROUND THE HILL

Reps. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) and Mark Takano (D-Calif.) hold a news conference to discuss how important international automakers are in American communities and the economy at 10 a.m. on the House Triangle .

Senate Veterans' Affairs ranking member Jon Tester (D-Mont.) holds a news conference to discuss benefits for Vietnam veterans at 2:15 p.m. on the Senate Swamp.

Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), co-chairs of the Progressive Caucus, hold a news conference on the priorities of the Progressive Caucus at 4 p.m. in HVC Studio A.

TRIVIA

MONDAY’S WINNER: Patrick Boland was the first person to correctly guess that George Washington model himself after Roman dictator Cincinnatus, who famously returned power to the Senate after only two weeks.

TODAY’S QUESTION: From Patrick: Who was the first President of the United States to begin the State of the Union address with “my fellow Americans?” First person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: [email protected]

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Follow us on Twitter Melanie Zanona @MZanona