Here is a confident prediction about the outcome of the EU referendum on June 23. The first result, to be declared at around 1am, will be overwhelmingly in favour of staying in. There will be an 85 per cent turnout – and 88 per cent of voters, or thereabouts, will be for Remain.

But since we are talking about Gibraltar, where the polls will close an hour earlier than here and just 22,000-odd votes need to be counted, it will tell us nothing about what is to come next.

The latest polls suggest that the Gibraltarians and the rest of us now seriously need to contemplate the prospect that Leave is going to win.

I have been abroad for the past few weeks, behind the Great Firewall of China and mercifully shielded from the day-to-day arguments of the various camps.

I had expected to come home to find Remain firmly in the driving seat, Project Fear having done its worst, but far from it. The most recent polls show a marked shift towards Leave.

As Sir Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, wrote in The Telegraph on Monday, the Leave campaign is narrowing the gap among those certain to vote.

“The clear trend over the course of ORB’s polls for the Daily Telegraph shows that Leave campaign has a turnout advantage over the Remain campaign. If this persists to June 23, the referendum could come down to the wire,” he said.