Same Old Song and Dance

Analyzing the Raptors style of play in the first two games of their Round 1 matchup against the Bucks

via CP24.com

In Kyle Lowry’s first playoff game since last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the three time All-Star had only four points to show for himself. In postgame comments Lowry said, “Put it this way. I guess I’mma have to force shots.” While this might have appeared to be of concern at the time, Lowry had one of the best playoff games of his career in a win for Toronto that came down to the wire.

The streak of Game One losses has unfortunately been a monkey on the back of a Toronto team that has still managed to find recent playoff success in spite of it. It’s unfortunate that a team and even it’s fans can be not only accustomed to but generally apathetic towards dropping the first game of a playoff series. I, for the record, happen to be one of those fans. Newest Toronto Raptors member and playoff rookie PJ Tucker didn’t share a similar sentiment:

“It’s kind of weird that everybody today’s like ‘Oh yeah, we always lose the first game.’ It’s like, no no no … It’s not cool.”

You’re right, PJ. It really isn’t. To have reached the Eastern Conference Finals just a year ago without winning a single Game One is both impressive and embarrassing in their own rights. It’s great that this team can fight through adversity, but when it’s adversity you’ve inflicted on yourself, there’s only a certain amount of time before that becomes a problem. The Raptors have proved that they have the will and the strength to come back, but wouldn’t it be better to not have to come back at all? To establish the pace over a superior team instead of having to scrap and brawl your way there? I’m going to quote George Orwell’s Animal Farm here and I just want to apologize in advance for how pretentious that sounds. “He would say that God had given him a tail to keep the flies off, but that he would sooner have had no tail and no flies.” Coming back to even the series is great, but not losing every game one sounds much better.

With the series now tied up at one a piece, there are a few things to take away from both games. I’ll try to remain as unbiased as possible but keep in mind that I own a multitude of Raptors-related items and probably would have removed a finger/toe to have kept Chris Bosh.

Who the hell can honestly guard Giannis? Is he capable of being stopped? The NBA has a pandemic of Unicorns flourishing in the league, and the Bucks have two of them. Giannis is obviously miles ahead of Thon at this moment, but he’s shown flashes of potential and is starting on an NBA playoff team for whatever that may be worth. On top of all of that, Malcolm Brogdon might win Rookie of the Year as a second round pick. Regardless of what happens in this series, the Bucks look like they’ll be a juggernaut in the East for a long time; especially if they keep drafting and developing talent the way they do. When the Raptors dropped Game One, Antetokounmpo had 28 points and shot 72% from the field. In Game Two, Toronto found more success against him defensively, holding him to 9/24 from the field. He still had 24 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, and two steals. Even if his shot isn’t falling the way he’d like, he’s finding ways to be effective.

The poor shooting night can be chalked up to the great defense of PJ Tucker, who was tasked with guarding Giannis for most of the game. PJ is a hustle guy and an excellent perimeter defender; he and Serge did a quality job of slowing down Giannis to the best of their abilities. More on Serge later.

Rebounding has been the most important part of the series so far. Greg Monroe ate the Raptors alive on the glass in Game One with five offensive rebounds and fifteen total, but had only four rebounds in Game Two. Yet in spite of that, the Bucks had twelve offensive rebounds in their losing effort in comparison to the six Toronto had (five of which coming from Jonas). The better rebounding team will more than likely win this series — or they should anyway. These are two of the weaker rebounding teams in the league numbers wise, and whoever can win that battle will have an obvious advantage.

Lets make one thing very clear though: the Raptors are very lucky to have won Game Two. With under 1:30 left, the Raptors blew coverage TWICE and allowed for open threes that were missed by both Delly and Brogdon. Free throws have been troublesome for Toronto as well, shooting 18/25 in Game Two (two of those misses came from Tucker while only up two with under a minute left). The Raptors were 8th in the league in free throw percentage during the regular season and can’t afford to leave points at the line, especially in the fourth quarter.

The three point shooting was a bright spot for Toronto in Game Two, setting a franchise playoff record 14 made threes in a single playoff game. Dwane Casey’s “offense” works best when they play drive and kick and swing the ball around the perimeter, trying to find lanes or open shooters. It was executed perfectly in Game Two and it seemed like everyone had an opportunity to be the hot hand.

Another stand out from game two was the performances of Lowry and Ibaka. We’ll start with Ibaka, who set the tone for the rest of the game with two incredibly vicious blocks on Thon Maker and the Freak:

My biggest problem with game one was how dead the atmosphere felt when Toronto needed the crowd the most. The Raptors needed a momentum swing, and they never got it. In this game, Serge gave them life when they needed it with his rim protection, and he had a great night on the offensive end as well with 16 Points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists. He also managed to hit four three pointers. Ibaka’s two-way play in this game was crucial. Whenever it seemed like Toronto was on its way into a bit of a funk on either side of the floor, Serge was there to hit a big shot — or block one.

To wrap up, I want to talk about Lowry and DeRozan: the dynamic duo. Depending on the game, one of them plays Batman while the others play Robin. But that wasn’t really the case in Game Two. Lowry and DeRozan both got to be Batman. With the Raptors only up by one heading into the fourth quarter, it felt like the game could have gone either way. It’s those moments where a team looks to their superstar(s) for guidance. The pair delivered.

DeRozan had what appears to be a quiet night with only 23 points, but made two crucial pull up jumpers down the stretch to keep momentum from swinging. Lowry had a similar performance. He had 22 points in total, but ultimately hit the most important shot of the game:

That’s ice cold. After struggling mightily in Game One, Lowry was back with a chip on his shoulder that was larger than usual. It was nice to see him rebound so well after being outplayed by Brogdon in his first ever playoff game. We know what DeRozan is. He’s going to get his points on a fairly consistent basis. Lowry and Ibaka are the key factors in this series. Their play decides the outcome.

In all honestly, I have no idea what’s in store for the rest of this playoff series. I genuinely don’t feel good about picking a side. Toronto edged out a win (one they needed desperately), and I’ll never question their abilities to dig themselves out of a hole. But this Bucks team is a bad matchup for everybody. Lets be honest, it was a pretty ugly win at that. I don’t feel comfortable betting against a guy who has hands like monster truck tires and the wingspan of commercial jet, but the Raptors have experience unprecedented to what the Bucks have. I think ultimately, they’ll find a way. At least I hope so.

NBA fans around the world are about to find out what the future of this Raptors team is very quickly. A first round exit might spell the end of the Kyle Lowry era (he is an unrestricted free agent this upcoming offseason) along with Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, and PJ Tucker. On the other hand, if Toronto can give some trouble to the Cavaliers or even beat them, the Raptors might pay everybody and lock themselves into a lineup they feel can win long-term. It all really depends on what this group can prove and if they have a core that can contend for a championship. It’s either a home run or a strikeout for the Raptors right now, and they’re on deck — whether they’re ready or not.