Germany won the Confederations Cup last year despite resting a host of players and the reigning World Cup champions have the quality to defend their title

This article is part of the Guardian’s 2018 World Cup Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the 32 countries who have qualified for Russia. theguardian.com is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 14 June.

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For most people the Confederations Cup is little more than the misguided brainchild of a few Fifa officials. One year before a World Cup, the competition pits the host country – in this case Russia – against the six continental champions and the reigning World Cup holders. Normally, the only people interested are the organisers, as they can test their infrastructure. Even Germany’s players rolled their eyes at the prospect of having to play after a long season and will have been relieved when the national coach, Joachim Löw, told them that they could go on holiday while he contested the 2017 tournament with second-stringers.

Some of the regulars will have been alarmed, however, when they watched the games on television, as Löw’s decision yielded astonishing results. Players such as Leon Goretzka, Lars Stindl, Timo Werner and Antonio Rüdiger not only won it, but became real challengers for those rested. Suddenly Germany fans, some of whom had become a trifle bored with the national team, got very excited about the reserves.

And so the 2017 Confederations Cup livened things up, restored proper competition for places and created the situation where Löw has a large reservoir of talent to choose from. Especially because there are not only his tried and trusted veterans and the Confed Cup starlets, but also two players whose international careers have had a whiff of tragedy.

One is the midfielder Ilkay Gündogan. Even though he is abroad, at Manchester City, many Germany supporters are glad he has finally been able to play an entire season without fitness problems. After all, the playmaker would have won a lot more caps since his debut seven years ago (and would be a World Cup winner) had he not been haunted by injuries, missing the World Cup in Brazil and Euro 2016.

A similar fate befell his former Dortmund team-mate Marco Reus. The fleet-footed forward made his Germany debut in the same year as Gündogan, 2011, and has only just reached 30 caps (which is still more than Gündogan, who has 25). He, too, missed the 2014 World Cup – after sustaining an injury in the final preparation game – and couldn’t be called up for the European Championship on account of a groin injury.

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It means Löw has two outstanding players at his disposal who have something to prove in a Germany shirt and it gives him options. Löw is not only fond of tailoring his tactics to the opposition by changing his basic 4-2-3-1 into a 4-3-3 or even 3-4-3 and 3-5-2, he also likes to change a game’s pattern by introducing different types of players.

Leroy Sané was unexpectedly dropped from the squad, showing once again what an incredible pool of talent Löw can choose from, and the Manchester City winger’s omission has meant that Reus or Julian Draxler could start on the left.

Probable starting XI

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Which player is going to surprise everyone at the 2018 World Cup?

Leon Goretzka combines physical presence with a strategic mind. He struggled at Schalke after announcing his move to Bayern Munich but should blossom again with the national team.



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Which player is likely to disappoint?

Manuel Neuer never ever disappoints – but maybe he will now. He has been called up after a foot injury caused him to miss the bulk of the season. If he plays, will his lack of match practice tell?

What is the realistic aim for Germany at the World Cup and why?

In terms of offensive combination football, Germany have even more potential than in 2014, but the side has lost key players and leaders such as Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Per Mertesacker. Still, it should be enough to reach the semi-finals – as Germany have done at every major tournament from 2006.

Christoph Biermann writes for 11Freunde.

Follow him on Twitter here.