Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 27: Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampman.

Stats for Suckas: Condit vs Kampman II

Carlos Condit Stats Martin Kampman 29 Age 31 Jackson’s MMA Camp Xtreme Couture 28-7 Record 20-6 Orthodox Stance Orthodox 76″ Reach 72″ 13 (T)KO (46%) Win Percentage 8 (T)KO (40%) 13 Submissions (46%) 7 Submissions (35%) 2 Decisions (8%) 4 Decisions (20%) 1 Other (5%) 3 Submissions (43%) Loss Percentage 4 (T)KO (67%) 4 Decisions (57%) 2 Decisions (33%) July 2nd, 2011, over Last (T)KO Victory June 1st, 2012, over Dong Hyun Kim Jake Ellenberger Feb. 13th, 2008, over Last Submission Victory Mar. 3rd, 2012, over Carlos Prater Thiago Alves Feb. 4th, 2012, over Last Decision Victory Nov. 19th, 2011, over Nick Diaz Rick Story N/A Last (T)KO Loss Nov. 17th, 2012, to Johnny Hendricks June 3rd, 2006, to Last Submission Loss N/A Pat Healy Mar. 16th, 2013, to Last Decision Loss Mar. 3rd, 2011, to Johnny Hendricks Diego Sanchez RNC 5x (38.5%) Submission Victories Guillotine 3x (42.9%) Armbar 4x (30.8%) by Method RNC 2x (28.7%) Triangle 2x (15.4%) Arm Triangle 1x (14.3%) Kimura x1 (7.7%) Punches 1x (14.3%) Guillotine x1 (7.7%) RNC x1 (33.3%) Submission Losses N/A Heel Hook x1 (33.3%) by Method Triangle x1 (33.3%) 1 hr, 42 min, 18 sec Cage time since 1 hr, 28 min, 12 sec first match-up 3 Final Round Finishes 1 2 Decision Victories 4 in the UFC 2.96 Significant Strikes 3.27 Landed Per Minute 40% Striking Accuracy 43% 2.24 Significant Strikes 2.88 Absorbed Per Minute 58% Striking Defense 63% 0.62 Average Takedown 1.39 Attempts per 15 Min. 58% Takedown Accuracy 42% 37% Takedown Defense 78% Percentage 1.32 Average Submission 2.25 Attempts Per 15 Min. 62.40% Average Submission 26.80% Completion Rate 151, vs. Nick Diaz on Most Significant Strikes 101, vs. Thales Leites on Feb. 4th, 2012 Landed in a Fight Nov. 11th, 2006 3 hr, 56 min, 47 sec Total Fight Time 2 hr, 54 min, 8 sec

The last time these two fought, Kampman was able to eke out a split decision victory. However, I don’t see that happening this time. While the statistics show the Dane to actually be an even more aggressive fighter than his New Mexico-based counterpart, I don’t foresee him being able to hold the pace he would need to beat Condit over 5 rounds. This fight still goes to a decision, but I predict “The Natural Born Killer” takes the W home with him this time.