Mr. Trump’s advisers, however, insist that is not the case, that while he is an unconventional politician with a howitzer Twitter account and an itchy trigger finger, he is still trying to reach out to new voters.

“The idea that we’re strictly preaching to the converted is not true,” said Tim Murtaugh, the communications director for Mr. Trump’s re-election campaign.

“We look at the 2016 map and we intend to win where the president won the last time and we also think that we can expand the map and attract new voters and new supporters in states across the country,” Mr. Murtaugh said. “There are two main differences this time between 2016 and 2020 — the first being that he’s now the incumbent president and the second is that he has a clear record of accomplishment that he can run on.”

Mr. Murtaugh cited the strong economy that has produced millions of jobs and increased wages as well as legislation like the overhaul of the criminal justice system. He also said voters across ideological lines agree with Mr. Trump’s argument on immigration that the law should be enforced.

“Democrats make a mistake where they can just shout the word immigration and think they win the argument with Hispanic voters,” he said. “We have found that legal immigrants, those who have followed the law to be Americans or those who have legal immigrants in recent generations close to themselves, believe that others should also follow the law.”

Mr. Trump’s path to victory in 2016 was an inside straight, winning the Electoral College even though he lost the national popular vote to Mrs. Clinton by nearly three million votes. Notwithstanding Mr. Trump’s advisers, Democrats and independent analysts said the president seemed to be gambling that he could win the same way again.

“They are doubling down on lightning striking the same place twice and the idea that this 46 percent president can once again through divide and conquer tactics win again,” said Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for Mr. Obama. “They’ve got to play the hand they are given and he doesn’t have a lot of other hands. He’s got to double down on this tribalism that got him there in the first place and hope they can do enough that Democrats cannot cobble together the majority that’s sitting out there and rejecting Trump.”

