A woman walks through rubble in the provincial centre of Şırnak in November 2016 after it was devastated by the conflict.

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Context: Turkey’s conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – recognised as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the U.S. and the EU – continues in south-eastern Turkey and northern Iraq. In northern Syria, Ankara and the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the People’s Protection Forces (YPG), remain pitted against each other. On the home front, the government is pursuing crackdown on the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

Battleground: Between 10 August-20 September escalation remained concentrated in northern Iraq while limited operations targeting PKK militants in Turkey’s south east and east continued. This period saw an uptick in both PKK militant and Turkish secuirty force fatalities. Crisis Group confirmed a total of 11 security force fatalities (2 of them in northern Iraq). In Turkey’s east and southeast PKK and security force fatalities were recorded in rural areas of Van, Hakkari and Ağrı provinces.

Analysis: Prospects for non-violent ways forward look bleak amid uncertainty in Syria and the Turkish political leadership’s reliance on support from nationalists at home.