WR Target Analysis Entering Week 7

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Davante Adams led all wide receivers in targets with 16. Adam Thielen (0.44) and Cole Beasley (0.41) were the only receivers who account for 40 plus percent of their team’s target share. Julio Jones led all receivers in Air Yards with 187 closely followed by DeSean Jackson with 180.

Albert Wilson (2.87) led all receivers with eight or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Wilson accumulated 88 percent of his 155 receiving yards after the catch. Thielen (1.17) had the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will share statistical observations regarding a player from each tier that you should know about heading into Week 7.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 1 Davante Adams GB 6 16 10 132 35.2 2 Adam Thielen MIN 6 15 11 123 29.3 3 Julio Jones ATL 6 14 10 143 24.3

Julio Jones has yet to score a touchdown this season but is currently averaging 12 targets and 170 Air Yards per game. The Falcons have a matchup against the Giants this week with a projected point total of 54.5. Jones will see positive regression in the touchdown area sooner rather than later.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 4 Tyreek Hill KC 6 12 7 142 39.2 4 Alshon Jeffery PHI 6 12 8 74 27.4 4 AJ Green CIN 6 12 7 85 15.5 7 Cole Beasley DAL 6 11 9 101 31.1 7 Danny Amendola MIA 6 11 8 59 13.9

This was only Cole Beasley’s third career game with 10 or more targets. The volume he saw against the Jaguars was game plan specific. I do not see it continuing against the Redskins this week.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 9 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 6 10 7 115 24.5 9 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT 6 10 7 111 20.1 9 Robert Woods LAR 6 10 7 109 19.1 9 Chester Rogers IND 6 10 4 55 15.5 9 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 6 10 9 94 18.4 9 Willie Snead BAL 6 10 7 60 13 9 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 6 10 6 44 10.4 9 Antonio Callaway CLE 6 10 2 9 4.9

This was #Colts Chester Rogers' 3rd consecutive games with 10+ targets. He has also accumulated 230 Air Yards over that time frame averaging 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game. #FantasyFootball — Moody (@EricNMoody) October 14, 2018

T.Y. Hilton appears to be over his hamstring injury, but faces a difficult matchup against Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White in Week 7. Rogers should continue to see heavy target volume.

#Browns Antonio Callaway had 10 targets against LAC, but only caught 20% of them. He also accumulated 130 Air Yards. I still believe more productive games are coming this season once the light bulb comes on for Callaway. #FantasyFootball — Moody (@EricNMoody) October 14, 2018

Callaway’s drops continue to be an opportunity. I would advise against dropping a receiver seeing this kind of volume and accumulating this number of Air Yards.

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Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 17 Albert Wilson MIA 6 9 6 155 33 17 Tyler Boyd CIN 6 9 7 62 25.2 17 Michael Crabtree BAL 6 9 6 93 21.3 17 Chris Godwin TB 6 9 6 56 17.6 17 DeSean Jackson TB 6 9 4 77 12.4 17 Josh Gordon NE 6 9 5 42 9.2 17 Jarvis Landry CLE 6 9 2 11 3.1

Josh Gordon led all of the Patriots wide receiver in targets (9) and Air Yards (90) while playing 81 percent of the offensive snaps.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 24 Devin Funchess CAR 6 8 5 74 18.4 24 Zay Jones BUF 6 8 3 35 12.5 24 Doug Baldwin SEA 6 8 6 91 15.1 24 Damion Ratley CLE 6 8 6 82 14.2 24 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 6 8 5 39 8.9 29 Julian Edelman NE 6 7 4 54 16.1 29 Christian Kirk ARI 6 7 6 77 13.7 29 Zach Pascal IND 6 7 5 35 9.3 29 Sterling Shepard NYG 6 7 3 37 6.7 29 Justin Hardy ATL 6 7 3 33 6.3

Christian Kirk currently has the second most targets (31) and Air Yards (250) on the team. He is outproducing Larry Fitzgerald and has a favorable matchup this week against the Broncos secondary.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 34 Antonio Brown PIT 6 6 5 105 21.5 34 Allen Robinson CHI 6 6 5 64 17.4 34 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 6 6 5 63 17.3 34 Terrelle Pryor NYJ 6 6 5 57 16.7 34 Keenan Allen LAC 6 6 4 62 14.3 34 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 6 6 3 103 13.3 34 Brandin Cooks LAR 6 6 2 53 7.3 34 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 6 6 2 43 6.3 34 Pierre Garcon SF 6 6 4 37 7.7 34 Seth Roberts OAK 6 6 5 31 8.1 34 Josh Doctson WAS 6 6 3 20 5

Keenan Allen is one of my favorite receivers to buy low on at the moment. He is off to a slow start, but averaged 10 targets and 18 PPR fantasy points per game last season.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 45 Marquise Goodwin SF 6 5 4 126 29.1 45 Torrey Smith CAR 6 5 5 43 17.3 45 Taylor Gabriel CHI 6 5 5 110 16.9 45 Dede Westbrook JAX 6 5 3 38 12.8 45 Paul Richardson WAS 6 5 3 31 12.3 45 Nelson Agholor PHI 6 5 3 91 12.1 45 Mike Evans TB 6 5 4 58 9.8 45 Stefon Diggs MIN 6 5 3 33 7.2 45 Robby Anderson NYJ 6 5 3 39 6.9 45 D.J. Moore CAR 6 5 4 59 7.7 45 Keke Coutee HOU 6 5 3 33 6.3 45 Ryan Grant IND 6 5 2 24 4.4 45 Keelan Cole JAX 6 5 4 41 6.1 45 Allen Hurns DAL 6 5 0 0 0

Marquise Goodwin appeared to over his hamstring woes from earlier this season. He accumulated 123 Air Yards last week against the Packers and can be viewed as a WR3 with upside.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 59 Tyrell Williams LAC 6 4 3 118 26.9 59 Demaryius Thomas DEN 6 4 3 57 14.7 59 Anthony Miller CHI 6 4 1 29 9.9 59 Adam Humphries TB 6 4 3 82 11.2 59 Tyler Lockett SEA 6 4 3 13 11 59 Chris Hogan NE 6 4 4 78 11.8 59 Courtland Sutton DEN 6 4 3 58 8.8 59 Cody Latimer NYG 6 4 3 52 8.2 59 Laquon Treadwell MIN 6 4 4 38 7.8 59 Jakeem Grant MIA 6 4 3 32 6.2 59 Corey Davis TEN 6 4 1 24 3.4 59 Maurice Harris WAS 6 4 3 13 4.9 59 Sammy Watkins KC 6 4 2 18 3.7 59 Mike Williams LAC 6 4 1 4 2.4

Courtland Sutton has only 31 targets on the season, but has accumulated 383 Air Yards while playing 70 percent of the offensive snaps.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR 73 David Moore SEA 6 3 2 47 13.2 73 Marcus Johnson IND 6 3 2 52 13.2 73 Calvin Ridley ATL 6 3 3 47 7.7 73 Will Fuller HOU 6 3 2 33 5.3 73 John Brown BAL 6 3 2 28 4.8 73 Jordan Matthews PHI 6 3 2 26 4.6 73 Kendrick Bourne SF 6 3 1 22 3.2 73 Martavis Bryant OAK 6 3 2 18 3.8 73 Chris Moore BAL 6 3 3 12 4.2 73 Alex Erickson CIN 6 3 2 8 2.8 73 Jordy Nelson OAK 6 3 2 6 2.6 73 Jarius Wright CAR 6 3 1 3 1.3 73 Cody Core CIN 6 3 0 0 0 73 Donte Moncrief JAX 6 3 0 0 0

John Brown is averaging eight targets, 71 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 154 Air Yards per game this season. He should still be heavily involved in the Ravens passing game moving forward.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

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Thanks for reading