Six Contenders: Penn State joins as Wisconsin is relegated Former contender Wisconsin’s loss to perennial Big Ten bottom-dweller Illinois was the most shocking loss this past weekend, and it will be in the running for most shocking loss of the season. With this loss, Wisconsin falls out of the Contenders Tier, but fans were much kinder to the Badgers’ than AP voters. While Wisconsin fell all the way to #13 in the AP, fans only dropped them down to #9, which earns Wisconsin the dubious honor of being one of the more underrated teams in this week’s AP according to fans. As the Badgers receive a relegation, it opens the door for Penn State, who picked up a statement win at home over the Michigan Wolverines with the entire nation watching. While Penn State played a far better first half than second largely due to its reliance on KJ Hamler for the bulk of its offensive production, the Nittany Lions were able to hold of a Michigan comeback to earn a victory over a ranked opponent at home in front of a capacity “white out” crowd. With this win, Penn State joins the six contenders comprising the tier of strongest teams in the minds of fans. A running theme over the past few weeks has been a consensus among college football fans around six contenders, but far less agreement on the ordering of these six teams. That’s still the case to an extent, but there is now an “A” tier and “B” tier of contenders because. . .

Penn State and Clemson are perceived as less strong contenders than the other four Penn State and Clemson fall below LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Alabama in the minds of most fans. In terms of strength, these two teams are far more likely to be seen as closer to the top four than the tier below them (Georgia and Florida). So while Penn State and Clemson are still close to the contenders, most fans would take any of the top four in a head-to-head matchup versus the Nittany Lions or ACC Tigers on a neutral field. Don’t believe me? Here’s some data showing how fans in this research reacted to the idea of a hypothetical Clemson vs. Ohio State matchup on a neutral field.

As you can see, the vast majority would favor Ohio State over Clemson (88% vs. 10%), which suggests most fans probably agreed with Ohio State jumping Clemson in this week’s AP.

Fans must be factoring in Tua’s ankle injury While there is little agreement on the ordering of the contenders at the top, I was still quite surprised to see Alabama in the #4 spot in this week’s results. I’m speculating to a degree, but I think fans are taking into account Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa’s injury. One voter put it pretty nicely: “Can we get two different teams to vote on for “Alabama with Tua” and “Alabama without Tua?”

/u/the_dunadan Tua left last Saturday’s game against Tennessee in the second quarter, and did not return in the second half. The Tide camp officially ruled it as a high ankle sprain and have already ruled the star QB out of next week’s game versus Arkansas. While Alabama will most likely be just fine without him against the struggling Razorbacks, the bigger question is if he will be ready to return for the monster showdown with LSU on November 9, which will definitely be the biggest regular season game of this season if not the past five years. One thing is certain: Alabama is a different animal without Tua behind center. He’s a special talent and the straw that stirs the drink for the Alabama offense. Alabama has arguably the best receiving corps in the nation in Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, speedster Henry Ruggs, and reigning Biletnikoff winner Jerry Jeudy, but how productive will these studs be with Mac Jones distributing the ball? You can’t count the Tide out regardless of who is taking snaps, but if Tua isn’t healthy for LSU, it certainly will be a different Alabama team than we’ve seen over the past two seasons.

A Cocktail Party in the next tier Florida and Georgia comprise the tier below the contenders. In the MaxDiff Poll, when teams are ranked in the same tier it reflects a consensus among voters regarding the relative strength of those teams. In other words, these two teams are perceived as comparable in strength by fans nationwide. Luckily, these two clubs will square off on November 2 in Jacksonville at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. This is shaping up to be a monster game that will almost certainly decide the SEC East. Considering that both of these teams only have one loss, the game will likely have Playoff implications as well. While these two teams are less likely to make The Playoff than the top six contenders, they certainly are not out of the equation yet.

Wisconsin, Oregon, and Auburn are still in it, but it looks like an outside shot After Florida and Georgia, the next tier is comprised of three teams that still have a shot of making the Playoff. If Wisconsin and Auburn were to run the table, they would most likely make it in. Wisconsin would have to win the Big Ten and beat Ohio State twice. That should be enough to get a Playoff invite regardless of what happens elsewhere. Auburn is in a similar but tougher situation. Running the table for the Tigers would mean earning victories over the murderer’s row of LSU, Georgia, Alabama, and whoever wins the Georgia-Florida game. That’s a tall task, but Auburn still has a shot. On the other hand, Oregon will likely need some help even if it runs the table and finishes as a one-loss Pac 12 champion. Regardless, fans currently view these three teams similarly and until they are able to pick up more wins over quality opponents, that likely will not change. Luckily, each of these three has plenty of opportunities in the next four weeks to jump a tier.