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As a team largely comprised by combat sports analysts, The Fight Site staff is happy to provide brief predictions for major upcoming fights.

On the eve of Robert Whittaker vs. Israel Adesanya, please enjoy these thoughtful overviews of the match-up. Make sure to read on for the can’t-miss analysis composed by combat sports genius Callan Gallacher.

Sriram Muralidaran

Adesanya's earned his way to the shot fairly convincingly, and he has the tools to be a pretty hard fight for Whittaker if he can keep it on the outside (where it’s hard to see anyone but Adesanya giving a full-form Whittaker much of a fight), but I don't see him being able to do that; Whittaker has the better jab and he's the faster man, and Kelvin Gastelum crowded Adesanya at points with just his speed and aggression. Israel's defense looked way too porous in the pocket against Gastelum (a fairly limited offensive boxer) to favor him against an operator like Whittaker there, who can build off his successes working around the frame in a way Gastelum largely didn't. Whittaker’s not a worse puncher than Gastelum nor slower, and he’s less likely to throw himself out of position to eat counters the way Gastelum did. Adesanya’s reaction to Anderson Silva’s pressure is also fairly concerning in this fight, considering his need to keep the fight on the outside; Whittaker has shown the ability to pressure at times (as he did against Jacare to push him into a head kick), and Silva safely backed Adesanya up a good deal by just blitzing forward or jabbing him back, so Whittaker may be able to force the pocket that way. Whittaker and Adesanya probably kick with each other at range for a bit, but I trust Whittaker too much as a tactician to bring the fight where it favors him. Whittaker via KO2

Kyle McLachlan

Danny Martin echoed a lot of my thoughts in his excellent article - Robert Whittaker & the Middleweight Meat Grinder. My major concern going into this is that the wars with Yoel Romero might have sapped a lot of Whittaker’s prime from him. Add in injuries and inactivity and I fear that Adesanya may have more success than he would’ve say, 12 months ago. This isn’t exclusive to him though, I had the same hunch going into the champ’s defence against Kelvin Gastelum (later aborted at the last minute). Stylistically though—assuming the man we all affectionately refer to as ‘Bobby Knuckles’ is still in peak form—it’s ‘The Reaper’s fight to lose. I envision a few knockdowns, some controlling wrestling and that famous toughness getting him through any difficult spots due to Izzy’s dangerous striking. I feel that Adesanya’s kickboxing game will be nullified by Whittaker’s jab and defence also. Whittaker by decision, overcoming a few scares

Ed Gallo

This fight is nowhere near a blowout on paper, but I feel that the stylistic match-up will lead to Robert Whittaker delivering a bit of a beating once he finds his spots. While it will be imperative for Whittaker to lead more often than not, the proactive head movement built-in to his combinations and excellent handfighting skill should allow him to bypass the long guard or any straight counters from Adesanya. Where Whittaker got in trouble against Yoel Romero was after the entry, staying a bit too close after firing at Romero’s high guard and getting caught with powerful hooking shots on his retreat. That was more a stroke of brilliance (and an adjustment after already collecting 25 minutes of data against Whittaker) by Romero than a major flaw in Whittaker, and Adesanya’s defensive and countering processes are completely different.



While I do have concerns about Adesanya finding success with his kicking offense on the outside, if Whittaker chooses to crowd and push him back for long stretches, he should be just fine. Kelvin Gastelum was able to get Adesanya retreating linearly and found a troubling number of shots in that fashion. A much more dynamic and layered entry artist than Gastelum, Robert Whittaker should be able to put Adesanya in mortal peril, sooner or later. Given that Whittaker’s last two fights were against some sort of demigod in Yoel Romero, I think people may be underestimating just how elusive and devastating he truly is. With that being said, perhaps 50 minutes of hell against Romero and chronic injuries have ended Whittaker’s physical prime. But, assuming he is the man we’ve come to know in the cage thus far, I’m picking Robert Whittaker with confidence, Round 4 TKO

Danny Martin

I’ll play Devil’s advocate. Robert Whittaker is an outstanding technician on the feet and is utterly impenetrable as a defensive wrestler, but…there’s a chance that we’re overestimating him a bit. He’s accrued a lot of injuries, and while he’s a stunning athlete, he sometimes can’t even seem to remain healthy during the course of a fight (i.e. breaking his hand against Natal & Romero on separate occasions). Conversely, Adesanya’s hand-shoulder-hip feinting and command of rhythm from long range could potentially cause Whittaker issues, since most of his defense is centered around protecting his chin. As a result, Whittaker has been more susceptible to being kicked from range, particularly to his legs.

On the other hand, I really didn’t like what I saw from Adesanya against Gastelum. Gastelum himself isn’t a particularly nuanced or polished pressure fighter, but he managed to just step into the pocket whenever he wanted and lace Adesanya with fairly predictable combinations. It wasn’t until late into that fight that Adesanya started taking away the 2 from Kelvin’s patented 1-2, and countering with blitzes. Adesanya is tremendously vulnerable in the pocket, and he is susceptible to pressure. If Whittaker can disguise his entries better than Kelvin and angle off before Adesanya can frame and counter, then he should absolutely work the kickboxer in the pocket. Israel’s reactions to combination punching is to switch stances or to react with wide, arching head movement that doesn’t allow him to counter as easily. If Whittaker’s body-head combinations get rolling, it will get ugly for Adesanya very quickly.

Clearly, I have mixed feelings about picking this fight. The most confident statement I’ll make is that I anticipate this will be tremendously close and competitive for however long it lasts. I guess I’ll take Adesanya’s consistency and efficiency over five rounds, but a lot of this pick is just based on the gut feeling that we might be overplaying Whittaker just a bit. Israel Adesanya by decision

Josh Yandle

This is a really intriguing bout, and one I think—and hope—will teach us a lot about both fighters. Looking back on their past fights, it’s hard to find comparative opponents for either of them; and that makes it very hard to predict.

Adesanya has a great command and sense of range, but has shown defensive issues when his opponent gets into the pocket; and I think that will be damning here. Whittaker has (as my colleagues pointed out above) incredibly fast feet, excellent pro-active head movement and an ability to work off of the clinch and frames in close. To me, all of that leads to—as long as he’s aggressive—Whittaker forcing the exact type of fight Izzy should want to avoid.

Whilst Adesanya’s kicking game is a very real concern, if Bobby can push him back it should take most of that away and become the type of fight I don’t see him losing. I think he uses his ever threatening lead hand to annoy Izzy and back him up before forcing the pocket and landing big shots. Despite thinking Israel’s kicking game can cause Rob lots of problems and being concerned that Whittaker can’t sustain pressure over 5 rounds. The pick is Robert Whittaker (T)KO Round 3

Callan Gallacher

Rob’s rocking the shaven head for this fight, which can mean only one thing: Izzy is fucked. Robert Whittaker UD

Tommy Elliot (BloodyElbow.com)

I look at this fight through the lens of each combatant’s most recent outing: Gastelum for Izzy and Romero II for Whittaker. Great fights both, and very revealing of each man’s tendencies to how they might match up. Gastelum gave Adesanya the most trouble blitzing forward in combination as Izzy—while very defensively versatile in terms of head movement and taking angles in static exchanges in the pocket—has a tendency to respond to the blitz by pulling straight back, stiff arming, and leaving his head a little high. He did hit some nice counters on Kelvin off those retreats but the few times Kelvin threw after Izzy’s counters he landed very hard. Adesanya prefers a fight where he can touch and feint continually making his opponent think too much and freeze up, at which point he can safely pot shot until he draws out a strike he can counter. When Kelvin gave him that fight, Izzy chewed him up.

Whittaker’s second fight with Romero offers some interesting parallels to what he might face against Adesanya: Romero is a fighter who loves to touch up and feints, move in unusual ways, then explode with a dynamic attack. He’s a lot less reliable on the counter, but he hits a lot harder. So how did ‘Bobby Knuckles’ deal with that? By staying in Romero’s face, assiduously working the body, and blitzing in from medium range with combos across levels. He also threw a lot of same-time counters in exchanges.

So what does that all mean for this fight? I expect Izzy will want to feel out Whittaker in the first round to start getting his timing, but there’s a good chance the champ doesn’t let that happen and stays in his face with a long jab. I expect Adesanya to land some hard counters as the fight goes on, but Whittaker is a lot more defensively responsible with his own shots than Kelvin Gastelum, and I don’t foresee him getting rocked off the counter. More likely Israel himself will get caught in longer exchanges or retreating from the pocket. If the fight goes long, expect Whittaker’s body work to become a factor. Adesanya is a long, tall guy with good head movement, Whittaker’s smart enough to know the recipe on a man like that is hitting the body. The only real danger I see for Whittaker (beyond the ever present threat of a flash KO given two excellent strikers in 4oz gloves) is standing too much in front of Adesanya.

Ultimately, unless the Romero fights destroyed his durability, I expect Whittaker is too smart for that. Robert Whittaker by late KO or unanimous decision