Before the Trump administration delivered its official notice to the U.S Congress on Thursday announcing its intention to reopen NAFTA, President Donald Trump should have reviewed his own bestselling 1987 book, The Art of the Deal.

The book, which helped create the Trump brand that ultimately propelled the New York real estate developer to the White House, is full of advice to would-be negotiators and deal-makers about how to come out on top by obliterating the opposition. In it, he talks lots about the need to look strong when going into a negotiation.

“The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it,” Trump wrote. “That makes the other guy smell blood and you’re dead … The best thing you can do is deal from strength and leverage is the biggest strength you have.”

In the days immediately following Trump’s stunning victory in last November’s presidential election, he appeared to have massive leverage, particularly on the trade front. He had swept to power on a populist appeal to working-class Americans to “make America great again” by confronting China over its supposedly unfair trading practices — but mainly by ripping up NAFTA, which he called “the worst trade deal, maybe ever.”

But in the few short months since, Trump has blown much of his post-election leverage on a breathtaking series of blunders and missteps, culminating in the rolling crisis of the Russia election-meddling inquiry and his firing of FBI Director James Comey.

When the NAFTA report broke on Thursday, it may have been headline news in Canada — but in the U.S. it looked like a distraction from the deluge of news about the Russian investigation, Trump’s “witch hunt” allegation, the latest on the Michael Flynn scandal and the pitfalls of Trump’s upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia. (In the New York Times, the NAFTA renegotiation story was an afterthought, listed under “More News” and buried in the business section.)

With a special prosecutor nipping at his heels and people on both sides of the aisle in Congress muttering the word ‘impeachment’, Trump is hardly negotiating from a position of strength.

In fact, the self-styled brilliant deal-maker has turned out to be a terrible negotiator. After threatening to rescind the traditional one-China policy, impose tariffs on Chinese goods and officially designate China as a currency manipulator, Trump quickly retreated and made nice with President Xi. The trade deal signed with China last week solves a few irritants — allowing U.S. beef producers to resume exports to China and allowing U.S. credit card companies greater access to the Chinese market — but it’s clear there will be no grand reset of U.S.-China trade patterns. Trump blinked.

With the Trump administration lacking focus, we have the opportunity to hone our positions on a range of issues — and to concede on nothing until we have to. With the Trump administration lacking focus, we have the opportunity to hone our positions on a range of issues — and to concede on nothing until we have to.

At home, Trump’s so-called Muslim travel ban is mired in the courts. His main legislative measures on health care and tax reform are being bogged down by internal dissent among Republicans and a lack of experience in and understanding of the political process on the part of the White House.

As for NAFTA, Trump’s plans for the future of the deal have been all over the map, suggesting the attention span of a toddler. After threatening to kill the agreement during the election campaign, Trump soon was saying was that all the pact needed was some “tweaking.” Then he discovered supply management and claimed that Canada was being “very unfair” to Wisconsin dairy farmers and U.S. softwood lumber producers in a tweet-blast aimed north.

For a moment a month ago, Trump was even ready to unilaterally scrap NAFTA altogether and had drafted an executive order to do so. Apparently, only last-minute calls from Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto convinced Trump to abandon the threat and opt for renegotiation instead.

As for this week’s notice to Congress, it’s a pretty bare-bones affair, signed by the newly-confirmed U.S. trade representative, Robert Lightizer. The brief letter talks in generalities about improving economic growth and encouraging better-paying jobs while modernizing the 23-year-old trade pact, but it is otherwise lacking in details — other than an observation about the need for the agreement to reflect the growth in digital trade.

The upshot is that it looks as if Trump has backed away from any major rewrite of NAFTA. That didn’t stop Lighthizer from declaring victory even before talks have begun. “Today, President Trump fulfilled one of his key promises to the American people. For years, politicians have called for the renegotiation of this agreement, but President Trump is the first to follow through with that promise.” That’s pretty presumptuous, since talks aren’t even expected to begin until September.

Already, this light-touch approach to renegotiating is being criticized by the NAFTA critics among Democrats, who want more radical changes. Nancy Pelosi, Democratic minority leader in the House of Representatives, called the letter “weak” and accused Trump of betraying working-class voters. On the other side, Republicans who are worried about possible trade restrictions with Canada and Mexico warned that abandoning NAFTA could have “devastating consequences” for the U.S. economy.

While neither side is happy, Trump is anxious for a deal — any deal — to show that his administration can achieve something after so many high-profile failures. The Mexicans also are looking for a quick agreement prior to the start of presidential election campaign next year.

That leaves Canada in an enviable position. We have a majority government which is not facing an election until 2019 and a prime minister who’s reasonably popular both at home and abroad. The economy is relatively strong and trade with the U.S. remains robust, softwood lumber notwithstanding. With the Trump administration lacking focus, we have the opportunity to hone our positions on a range of issues — and to concede on nothing until we have to.

Canada’s trade negotiators — a skilled and experienced lot who got to the finish line on complex free-trade talks with the European Union — should continue to consult with stakeholders and do their homework. It doesn’t mean Canada will win every fight in this negotiation and we may have to decide to sacrifice some sectors to favour others. Given a choice, we have to remember that Canada’s future is located more in artificial-intelligence labs than in dairy barns or chicken coops.

But a distracted President Trump is not negotiating from strength. For Canada, it’s a good place to be.

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