Alternate fact: Barack Obama was bad for the stock market. Actual fact: The S&P 500 SPX, -1.40% rallied 166% during the Obama years. Now, it’s Donald Trump’s turn, and tracking this performance metric begins today. But the road, from a valuation perspective at least, looks a lot more difficult for the new guy.

Read:White House spokesman’s use of ‘alternate facts.’

As the Wall Street Journal points out, this one statistic shows why the bull market likely won’t last much longer: The total value of U.S. stocks was pegged at 169% of gross domestic product at the end of 2016, compared with 85% when 2008 came to a close and 177% at the bubbly finish of 1999.

Pricey, yes.

So, if you’re looking for a country to bet on, there may be better options, according to our call of the day. Specifically, Japan is poised to deliver, says DoubleLine Capital’s “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, who recently shared his views with Barron’s regarding the upcoming year.

“The Bank of Japan is engaged in quantitative easing, and the government is encouraging the purchase of stock,” Gundlach said. He explained that “there have been three sources of pretty much automatic buying of the Japanese stock market that totaled an annualized $163 billion in last year’s third quarter: pension funds, the Bank of Japan buying ETFs, and corporate buybacks.”

Add those buyers to a Japanese public that is broadly underinvested in equities and there are some solid gains ahead. Gundlach recommends the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund DXJ, -0.60% to gain exposure to the growth that lies ahead.

Back here in the States, however, the first full trading day under President Trump is looking a bit uneven early. And that’s something, according to Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Marc Chandler, that we’d better get used to in the coming years.

“The developments over the last few days, including the strident tones of the inauguration speech, the dispute of the number that attended the inauguration, and the nearly incoherent speech to the CIA may be a small hint to investors of the unpredictable nature of the new U.S. president,” he said.

Key market gauges

The Dow DJIA, -1.12% , S&P 500 SPX, -1.40% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.70% are trading lower. Gold US:GCH7 is capitalizing on the jitters with a move higher, as is silver. Asian markets ADOW, +0.30% were mixed, while Europe SXXP, -0.66% and crude US:CLH7 are both off. See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

The chart

Oil bulls have plenty of reason to tread cautiously these days, but they certainly aren’t doing that. In fact, the last time speculators bet this heavily on oil, the bottom dropped out of the market, as you can see by this illustration from Zero Hedge.

The blogger points out that this heavily-weighted bull position has taken shape “despite soaring rig counts, surging U.S. shale production, and increasing doubts over OPEC/NOPEC cuts being sustained.”

Read:Oil-output cuts going better than expected, OPEC says.

The stat

4.6 million — That’s one estimate of how many attended the Women’s March on Washington across the United States, which would make it the single biggest day of protest in this country’s history. Here’s a map showing some perspective on where they took place, via a University of Connecticut professor who compiled the numbers:

Check out some of the signs from the protest.

The buzz

Elon Musk says to expect major hardware upgrades from Tesla TSLA, +3.03% every 12 to 18 months. In a series of tweets over the weekend, Musk mapped out an update schedule that’s more along the lines of a smartphone maker than a traditional auto maker. Tesla shares are up slightly premarket but have been on a tear since December.

McDonald’s MCD, -0.66% said same-store sales fell in the U.S., but rose abroad.

Halliburton HAL, -2.39% posted a wider-than-expected loss, and sales fell below forecasts.

Apple AAPL, -2.79% may team up with Foxconn 2354, -0.56% to build a $7 billion factory in the U.S. that could create 50,000 jobs. Meanwhile, Apple is suing Qualcomm QCOM, -3.11% for $1 billion.

The economy

Nothing of note on today’s schedule, but we’ll get a look at the advance report of fourth-quarter gross domestic product at the end of the week, as well as data from the housing front in the coming days.

Read:Forget 4% growth: 3% would be a major feat for Trump after record drought.

The quote

“If you look at our country’s history, change doesn’t come from presidents. Change comes from large groups of angry people — and if Day 1 is any indication, you are part of the largest group of angry people I have ever seen. Good luck.” — Comedian Aziz Ansari, in his opening monologue for “Saturday Night Live.” Watch the full video:

Random reads

Americans are in a tough spot, but these are the real debt slaves.

Where have all the children gone, San Francisco?

Richard Branson says you should watch these documentaries.

The most peaceful place on the planet may be in the middle of Tokyo.

Traders at this stock exchange do nothing all day.

After two terrible games, the Pats are favored in the Super Bowl.

Redheads are rejoicing:

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