Keys to Victory

[Day 1] March 15, 2013

TSM vs GGU

coL vs dig

Crs vs CLG

Vul vs MRN

[Day 2] March 16, 2013

Crs vs TSM

dig vs GGU

coL vs Vul

MRN vs CLG

[Day 3] March 17, 2013

coL vs TSM

Vul vs dig

CLG vs GGU

MRN vs Crs

A match against TSM, a top-tier team with many months of experience, will be extremely tough for GGU, especially if Shiphtur is still unable to participate. The only way for them to gain a victory is to closely study TSM's favored heroes and either ban them, pick them, or discover a counter for them. It's possible (however unlikely) that GGU discovers a crack in TSM's armor with strategies to counter their favored Champions. Yet a GGU victory is more likely to come from TSM mistakes or inconsistencies rather than anything else and even that is improbable. With odds highly stacked in TSM's favor, they should stick to their planned strategies and practiced compositions since consistency and execution is their easiest path to victory. If TSM play with appropriate caution, humility, and routine, GGU will certainly fall to their strength.The second match on Friday is between the literal opposite ends of the LCS bracket. For Dignitas, this means that victory will be theirs if they stick to their strengths. They've played nothing but solid LoL for the last three weeks and there's no reason to switch things up to beat compLexity. For compLexity, obtaining a win over Dignitas will require them to play at their absolute best and have a good deal of luck. Hopefully the post-Super Week break gave them an opportunity to practice their early game execution so they can stave off the Dignitas' aggression until the teamfighting stage. At that point, if Dignitas isn't already too big to fail, then compLexity may be able to make use of their strong teamwork to win fights and take objectives. Unfortunately, this will likely require some mistakes from Dignitas, but such throws are historically not without precedent. Good luck compLexity, you're going to need it.These teams are at 1-1 in the LCS, and Week 5 brings them to a decisive game for NA followers, if not for the LCS standings. While Curse seemed unbreakable in the first three weeks of the LCS, their Week 4 match against CLG made it seem as through they were playing with FotM ideals rather than their own strategies. They should be more careful in the early game (though CLG is unlikely to try the same trick twice) and pick their battles wisely. Curse should exploit their talent in the top and mid lanes where CLG is most vulnerable and prone to throws, while keeping as much pressure as possible on Doublelift as he farms towards his nigh-unstoppable late game. CLG, on the other hand, should keeping playing League of Protect Doublelift to the best of their abilities since he is their most certain and consistent path to victory. They should also keep constant tabs on Saintvicious, a player whose aggression can be exploited to CLG's benefit. Finally, drafting a powerful and familiar Champion for HotshotGG will ensure his presence is as threatening in the solo lane as CLG intends it to be. This should be a close match and will set expectations going into the second half of the Spring season.Friday's final match is a duel between the Week 3 surprise and the Week 4 surprise. The most promising lower bracket teams will face off in another deciding matchup for the fans, allowing us to better predict from which team the most reliable upsets will arise. Vulcun would do well to take advantage of some of MRN's obvious weaknesses, such as MegaZero's difficulties in 1v2 play or Heartbeat's preference for Tristana and her mid-game slump. Allowing MRN to play to their strengths would be a mistake, as they've proven that their late-game decision-making and execution is top notch, but making it that far is a struggle. Some choice picks and bans would not go amiss for Vulcun either, since no one wants to fight MegaZero's Renekton or ClakeyD's Jarvan. Selective picks and bans will also be essential for MRN, who will want to keep mandatorycloud and Sycho Sid away from their strongest Champions. Overall, shutting down mancloud is a must, since he tends to be the driving force behind Vulcun's victories. MRN should also plan around Xmithie's lane-camping preferences to set up opportunities to pull ahead in the laning phase. Barring devastating mistakes from one (or both) teams, this should be quite the entertaining match as well.Of the old NA Troika, TSM was the only team to drop their game against Curse during the Super Week. In order to beat Curse this week, they are going to have to do a better job at shutting down Voyboy. While this is a blanket statement that could be applied to all teams, during the Super Week TSM specifically had a hard time dealing with Voyboy's tendency to dive and make big plays. There were several fights that looked to be in TSM's favor, but were quickly turned around by Voyboy ignoring the front line and engaging on TSM's carries. Curse will need to be mindful of TSM's Bot lane if they want a repeat victory. While solid, it's clear Curse's Bot can be overwhelmed, a fact that was exploited by Dignitas in their victory over Curse. If Curse let's TSM get their Bot lane going, it may be difficult for them to slow down.At the time of writing this article, there is no news of Shiphtur returning to GGU for Week 5. Dignitas can take advantage of this as Scarra should be able to abuse Jintae in the Mid lane. By playing champs with high roaming potential such as Diana or Gragas, Scarra can apply pressure around the map and make sure the rest of dig's lanes get fed. In order for GGU to pull off the victory they are going to have to reply on Nintendudex. Each individual lane for dig is arguably stronger than GGU, but the Jungler is the great equalizer. If Nintendudex can pull of several successful early ganks this lead should allow for GGU's lane to keep dig's players in check. If they can accomplish this, they will also have to be sure to use their superior map control to secure Dragon control over dig.The Super Week wasn't kind to coL or Vulcun, each team going 1-4 and 0-5 respectively. Vulcun's only win was actually against coL. In order to repeat their success, they should focus on keeping Lautemortis down. So far, Lautemortis' LCS performances have been somewhat lack luster, having trouble making any huge impact on the games and generally not dealing well playing from behind. If Vulcun can pull off some invades or secure an early kill on Lautemortis in his own Jungle they can keep this trend going. coL needs to focus on Bot lane if they want to pull off the victory. Zuna on Vulcun is already well known for his signature team fight screaming, and keeping him in check is a great way to keep Vulcun grounded. Shutting down Zuna early means breaking Vulcun's spirit which is important to beating them.Team MRN stunned CLG during the Super Week handing them their only loss. In order for CLG to prevent a similar outcome, they are going to have to keep MegaZero shut down. When left alone in a 1v1 lane MegaZero is able to wreak havoc picking up solo kills with alarming regularity. Putting Doublelift and Aphromoo into a 2v1 not only guarantee free farm for Doublelift, but it will go a long way in shutting down MegaZero. Team MRN is going to have to be adaptive to accomplish a repeat victory. The lane swap for CLG seems like a no brainer, so MRN will have to deal with it accordingly. If MegaZero ends up in a 2v1, MRN will have to make sure that their Bot lane shuts down HotshotGG just as hard as CLG will try to shut down MegaZero. The way in which MRN reacts to this almost inevitable 2v1 is key to their success in this match-up.After a one-sided defeat in the Super Week, defeating TSM will be a tall order for the eighth place compLexity. Banning Chaox's Miss Fortune and Reginald's Xerath is a must, though TSM's Champion pools are large enough for bans to be only a minor hindrance. Much like GGU, compLexity's greatest chance comes from TSM's tendency to overaggress or misplay when they are overconfident. If coL can bait them into being so bold, perhaps they can enter the mid game with a lead. If so, coL will want to take TSM out as quickly as possible, since Vulcun's Super Week game against TSM proved that a patient TSM can beat inexperienced teams. Additionally, since coL will be on the Blue side, they should try to grab secret Dragons in the same way that they did against Curse in Week 2. This might give them a strength that TSM won't expect. For TSM, victory is theirs to take, but only (as before) if they play with caution and pragmatism. TSM will need to throw pretty hard to lose this one, but stranger things have happened.The Week 3 superstars clash with NA LCS superstars in the second Sunday match of Week 5. Fighting Dignitas is not easy for any team, much less a lower bracket team that went 1-4 in Super Week (including a loss to dig). However, Vulcun proved that they are capable of incredible upsets and could bring that ability to bear against the three week win streak of Dignitas. Critical to this effort would be an even laning phase for Vulcun. Dignitas crushed its recent opponents with powerful lane swaps, particularly with 2v1 mid lanes, as well as their individual laning talents. Figuring out the best way to escape the laning phase without falling far behind would be essential. One of the best ways to do so might be to ensure that mandatorycloud lanes against scarra: if anyone can fight back against scarra's aggression, it's mancloud. The best plan for Dignitas would be to continue to play to their strengths. Their champion pools are already too broad for Vulcun to effectively dismantle in picks/bans and their players are likely to destroy lane opponents even in a typical 1/1/2 laning setup. If they don't just go for all-out aggression (totally possible), Dignitas will want to take the most care around mancloud and Sycho Sid, the most individually dangerous Vulcun members. Similarly, remembering that Xmithie will likely only gank bot lane will highly benefit the team, allowing them to plan counterganks effectively. Finally, Zuna and Muffinqt can be baited into mistakes due to their aggressive plays, so Dignitas should use that tendency against Vulcun wherever possible.Unfortunately for Good Game University, CLG will be playing with their full roster for their final game of MLG Dallas. Team MRN and Curse will get to play against an unusual CLG line-up that features the return of bigfatlp and HotshotGG in the Jungle. Back at full strength CLG will be a much harder opponent to deal with. As with most teams, the fate of GGU really depends on making sure Doublelift doesn't get fed. If GGU can do this while also feeding DontMashMe a couple kills they will be in good shape. CLG is often the Doublelift show and when he's behind it shows. CLG have a lot of faith in Doublelift, but they have other options available. If Jintae returns to the Mid lane for GGU, CLG can make an effort to get LiNk fed and let him carry the game. With teams focusing on shutting down Doublelift, this could catch a lot of them off guard.As a result of their Week 4 performance Team MRN has made a name for themselves pulling off big upsets. Beating CLG was a nice surprise, but beating TSM as well was a statement. If a team is going to underestimate MRN's ability they are going to punish them for that. The result of this meeting will rely heavily on the Top lane performances as both MegaZero and Voyboy are key contributors to the success of their respective teams. In this scenario winning lane is more than just getting ahead, it's about setting the enemy even further behind by limiting a crucial component of their line-up. Curse also needs to pay special attention to MRN's Bot lane as Heartbeattt has looked particularity scary coming out of the Super Week and letting him get a few early kills could spell doom for Curse.