Over the next two months, I’ll take a look at some potential draft prospects that could find themselves in wine and gold come the end of June. Last week, I took a look at Maryland center Alex Len. This week, I’m choosing to look into the likely number one pick in this draft, Kentucky power forward/center Nerlens Noel. Noel is a defense-first big man prospect who is currently recovering from a torn ACL suffered in February. With his return not slated for Christmas or later, this certainly complicates, though many expect Noel to remain the draft’s top selection. In this film room, I’ll dig into just how his play may or may not warrant that slot.

First, as we did last time, let’s go around the Web at some various mock drafts and scouting reports to see what they’re saying about Noel.

Chad Ford/ESPN:

Noel is a long, super-athletic 18-year-old who is already a dominant shot-blocker and rebounder. He needs to get stronger and improve a raw offensive game, but his development has impressed scouts, as has his consistently high motor. Teams will be a little wary because of his torn ACL, but the overwhelming consensus is that he should make a full recovery.

NBADraft.net:

He’s a more explosive leaper and has better on ball shot blocking ability than last year’s UK freshman intimidator Anthony Davis. While Davis had a little better lateral speed and ability to get to shots as a weakside defender, Noel’s ability to deny his man any daylight to the rim and be a rim protector makes him even more dominant, and a potential defensive enforcer for the NBA … An elite level athlete with great quickness and explosive leaping ability … Great length, reported 7’4 wingspan … Showed surprising ability to get steals using his quick hands (2.1 per game), though some of those reach ins will draw fouls and not be as sucessful in the NBA … Must get stronger but has the potential to play both post positions: power forward and center.

DraftExpress.com:

He runs the floor like a guard, is extremely nimble and quick, and has pogo stick leaping ability. This allows him to cover ground unbelievably well both vertically and horizontally, which helps him impact the game in numerous ways. It’s safe to say that, should he make a full recovery from his injury as expected, he’ll be one of the most athletic big men in the NBA. Offensively, Noel is a fairly limited offensive player at this stage of his career, both in terms of instincts and production. He was not a focal point by any means for a Kentucky squad that struggled badly to produce points in many key games this season, only using 18% of his team’s possessions in his time on the floor, which ranked just sixth on a team that may not make the NCAA tournament.

Goodman/CBSSports:

He’s coming off the knee injury, but with modern technology the way it is, the 6-foot-10 big man will be back to full strength soon. He’ll give some team a game-changer on the defensive end with his ability to block and alter shots.

HoopsHype:

Noel’s length, leaping ability and cat-like reflexes make him an extraordinary shot blocker. He shows a willingness to hustle and play hard, which combined with his elite level athleticism is very encouraging. His offensive game, however, is extremely raw and may never be anything more than put back dunks and hook shots. He also needs to get much stronger as his upper body and legs are rail thin. Granted, added weight could ultimately put even more stress on what appear to be fragile knees. The other real concern is that Noel tore the same ACL that he had torn as a sophomore in high school. After coming back faster than doctors had recommended, some wonder if this recent injury was inevitable and whether there could be structural damage making further injuries to the same knee more likely.

More Video:

YouTube – DraftExpress

Stats:

10.5 PTS, 9.5 RBS, 4.4 BLK, 2.1 STL, 1.6 AST, 1.9 TO, 59% FG, 53% FT, 5 double-doubles in 24 games.

Now, let’s do a little film room study of our own on the Kentucky man in the middle. The game we’ll be looking at is one of the last that Noel played, a matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford. The Wildcats won this game, and Noel played a huge role. Noel blocked a season-high 12 shots in the game, pulling down 7 rebounds. However, his offensive game was non-existent as Nerlens missed the only shot he took from the field and converted only 2-of-8 free throws for his two points.

The first thing you have to talk about with Noel is his shot blocking ability. It’s elite. In Kentucky’s defense, Noel spent a good portion of his time shadowing every single dribble drive made into the paint and often blocked or altered shots from behind or over the top of his teammates. His instincts are outstanding, and with his 7’4″ wingspan, he gets to nearly everything. Let’s dive in to a few examples from the Ole Miss game.

On this inbound play, Jarvis Summers catches it out high and beats Ryan Harrow off the dribble.

The biggest thing that I noticed about Noel is that he’s not a swing-and-miss one-trick act on the defensive end. He’s rarely out of position. He always seems to know where his man and the ball are. He’s going to be an EXCELLENT helpside defender, something Mike Brown’s defensive scheme highly values. Here, we see Noel in perfect position between the penetration and his man on the opposite block.

Notice in the shot below that Summers is going up for the shot and Noel hasn’t even left the floor yet. If there’s anything I can say about Noel in film room that may be news to those of you who watch college basketball and have seen Noel play at least a little, it’s how developed his shot-blocking game is. He avoids contact, keeping the offensive player away from his body. He also waits until the last second to unleash his long arm of the law.

Like here. Noel picks the ball out of the air just before it hits the backboard and while it’s still going up. He’s so good at protecting the paint that teams are eventually just going to be discouraged from driving to the hole, a la Dwight Howard when he was in Orlando on those contending teams.

Another thing I’m a big fan of here: instead of going for the highlight reel reaction and sending it into the fourth row of seats, Noel keeps the ball in play. This allows his teammates to recover the ball and start the fast break.

Here’s another look at the blocked shot on Summers from a straight-on angle.

We’ll take a look here at another Noel block. This plays starts from the left elbow. Notice how Noel uses his role in the zone to shadow dribble penetration and help the other Wildcats.

This time, it’s the same spot, but Noel waits just as long and elevates over the top of his teammate, 6’10” Kyle Wiltjer.

Noel really gets elevation on this one and once again gets to the ball before it smacks the backboard.

Noel had a blocked shot percentage of 13.2%, good for 10th in the nation. It’s also noteworthy to point out that in a college game with five fouls and officials often picking on big men for easy fouls, Noel fouled out of just one game (2.6 fouls per game). In fact, he only totaled four personal fouls in one of his final seven games. This happened to be the one where he was whistled for four fouls. Here are a couple more freeze frames to show where and how Noel blocked some of these shots. In addition to the the 12 blocks, I counted at least another 3 or 4 shots that were directly effected and missed because of Noel’s presence, forcing them to high-arc and try to float shots over the top of him.

Another underrated part of the Noel arsenal is that he has an all-around fantastic floor game. It’s not just blocks. He rebounds very well (22.3% defensive rebound percentage – 90th in the nation), he is a decent passer out of the post, and his anticipation on defense also nets him a good amount of steals (3.9% steals percentage, 73rd in the nation). Below, we see Noel’s man out in the right short corner. Nick Williams (#20) has the ball in the paint.

Williams looks to bounce pass out to the corner, but Noel anticipates and deflects it.

Noel secures the ball and the Rebels get whistled for a foul.

This game was a poor example of Noel’s offensive capability. I highly recommend the scouting report link above for some more looks at what Noel did to reach double digit scoring figures 14 times in 24 games. I will show the one shot that Noel missed in this game. He starts out with his back to the basket, catching it at the left high post.

He squares and starts a drive to the hoop. Noel showed this skillset a few times that I can recall on the season.

He takes a nice long first-step stride and shows confidence in being able to make a few dribbles. I know it sounds easy, but there are plenty of big men who can’t dribble the ball even once without the risk of having it knocked away.

He stops, pivots, and turns middle to shoot a half-hook.

He gets great extension over the 6’9″ Aaron Jones, but he misses this one off the back of the rim.

Noel shot 59% on the season, but a good portion of those 98 made field goals were either dunks or shots from two feet and in.

The injury certainly complicates things for all teams thinking of choosing Noel. He’s been quoted as saying that his goal is to be back by Christmas, but it’s likely that Noel wouldn’t make his NBA debut even if all things go as planned until around the All-Star break in February, which would put him at exactly one year out from the injury. With Anderson Varejao hopefully healthy again and Tyler Zeller on the roster, the Cavaliers would probably be one of the teams that are willing to be patient with Noel and whatever amounts of his rookie season. Still, there’s part of me that is looking forward to this team making a playoff run next season or at least competing for a spot. Without an immediate impact player from the top of this draft, that goal become a little more difficult.

The verdict? If the Cavaliers are lucky enough to win the draft lottery for the third time in eleven years, I think they will and should take Nerlens Noel, despite the concerns over his knee injury. We never really saw what Mike Brown was going to be able to do defensively with Dwight Howard in Los Angeles, but I’m drooling at the thought of this agile, athletic, hard-working man playing the pivot for the Cavaliers.

Noel’s greatest hurdle to effectively playing the center position will be his weight (228 lbs.). In today’s NBA, there are few effective 7-foot scoring options left, and many teams have gone to using a 6’8″ or 6’9″ center with a taller/wider backup big. At 6’11”, if Noel can put on maybe 10-15 pounds, I don’t see why he can’t play the center spot effectively in the NBA with his muscular frame. I doubt Noel is ever going to be a go-to scoring option, but I do see him having the Tyson Chandler/Dwight Howard/Anthony Davis/Serge Ibaka type ability to effect a game immensely on the defensive end while being able to convert easy shots that are created for him.

Until next time, the film room is closed!

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(Photo: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)