Iran’s Missile Attack Was More About Domestic than Foreign Policy

As I explained in an earlier post here, Iran has nothing to gain by retaliating against the US – it has far more to win by playing victim and rallying support for itself and against Donald Trump, ahead of the presidential election in America this year.

One thing I did misjudge in that piece is the regime’s necessity to create a favorable public image inside the country. After it has put on an enormous propaganda show mourning Soleimani it created an expectation of a response. Why get thousands of people to the streets if you’re not going to do anything about it?

At the same time, Trump’s attack has clearly frightened them. They knew that his response to any bloody escalation would be unpredictable and could undermine their grip on power in the country even further.

So they planned to attack Iraqi bases where Americans are stationed – and then they, reportedly, notified Iraqis – likely knowing that they would warn Americans in advance. It seems that the material damage in the bases is also small, what would suggest that either Iranians deliberately targeted less vulnerable areas within the facilities or simply failed to hit anything meaningful.

As a result there were no casualties and no damage to speak of – but Iran has used the attack to spread fake news among its people, claiming to have killed 80 American soldiers. While it may have fooled some of its citizens, it has become apparent for everybody abroad how weak the regime is. For all their loud threats, they inflicted no damage.