The outlook for early rains that would ease the drought and elevated bushfire risks over eastern Australia is dimming even as the chance of an El Nino appears to be receding, climate models suggest.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology update on the main climate influences for Australia show while the chance of an El Nino forming in the Pacific remains about 50-50, some models have pushed back the start of any event until later in the year.

Dry times across southern Australia aren't about to get much relief, climate models suggest. Credit:Peter Lorimer

Such a shift would normally be welcomed by those wanting more rain because El Nino events are typically linked to reduced rainfall across eastern Australia. Weaker easterly trade winds mean rain patterns move eastwards away from the continent.

However, developments on the other side of Australia have lately shifted decisively towards a set-up that normally produces below-average rainfall for southern Australia.