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Boris Johnson is on course for a comfortable majority, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago.

The Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43 and the Liberal Democrats 13 if the election were held today, according to a seat-by-seat analysis based on polling by YouGov for The Times.

That result would give Mr Johnson a majority of 68 as he made gains at Labour’s expense, particularly in the Midlands and north of England. Labour would suffer its second-worst postwar defeat, with Jeremy Corbyn’s total two above Michael Foot’s in 1983.

The projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent, however, in at least 30 seats predicted to be Conservative. YouGov cautions that a fall…