Ohio State at Michigan

Betting Line: Michigan +8.5

Over/Under: 50

Ohio State faced their toughest test so far this season when they went against Penn State. The Buckeyes passed that test as they won 28-17 despite losing the turnover battle 3-1. JK Dobbins ran through Penn State’s defensive front for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Dobbins will face another tough defensive front this week and will need to keep Ohio State’s offense ahead of the chains. Justin Fields did well through the air last week, but also lost a fumble twice. While things still worked out last week, he will not always be that lucky. If Fields can keep control of the ball, he should be quite effective. Fields will play on Saturday but he is nursing an ankle injury. He will need his receivers to get open quickly and to have good protection as his mobility could be limited. Ohio State has a solid group of receivers but there is no true star in the group. If Chris Olave, Binjimen Victor, or KJ Hill can step up as a main target, it will take a lot of heat off of the offense. It will be difficult though as Michigan has a very strong secondary. On defense, the Buckeyes need to use their athleticism to their advantage. Ohio State has a defense loaded with speed and athleticism. Michigan has been trying to use their athletes more offensively to create big plays. If the Buckeyes can maintain their athletic advantage, Michigan will have a pretty tough time offensively. Cornerbacks Jeffery Okudah and Damon Arnette make up a very strong secondary and it will be a massive help if they are stout in coverage. If Michigan is going to have offensive success, it will mean that their passing game has to take off. If Okudah and Arnette can take that away, Michigan could end up directionless. Chase Young is the guy everyone is talking about on this defense and rightfully so as he is the best player in college football and the best defensive lineman I have seen in college since Jadeveon Clowney. Young will have a ton of attention put on him by Michigan’s offense. Any chaos he can create in spite of that will be great and the rest of the defensive line will be looked at to step up with the attention on Young.

Michigan is entering this game on a pretty nice hot streak. The Wolverines are on a four game winning streak and have not really had to break a sweat in any of those games. The biggest reason for this improvement is the increase in their offensive performance. Quarterback Shea Patterson has really stepped his game up as he threw for 366 yards and five touchdowns in Michigan’s win over Indiana last week. Patterson will have a tougher time this week as Ohio State’s secondary is elite. He will have to be able to throw the ball well into tight windows and not go back to his early season form in terms of being turnover happy. Receivers Nico Collins and Ronnie Bell have definitely been beneficiaries of Patterson’s recent improvement. They will need to help him out a bit by breaking free of coverage enough to give Patterson an occasional window. On the offensive line, Michigan will have to exhaust quite a bit of energy into slowing down Ohio State defensive end Chase Young. In Ohio State’s two biggest games this season, Young went absolutely gangbusters on the opposing offensive lines. Tackles Jon Runyan and Jalen Mayfield need to not get dominated by Young and Patterson needs to know where he is at all times. On defense, I think the Wolverines need to be aggressive. Ohio State running back JK Dobbins is a very physical runner that will fight through contact. Michigan needs to make sure he does not easily churn his way through their defensive front line he has done before. Defensive end Kwity Paye and linebacker Josh Uche are likely candidates to create big plays and need to show that. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is a tremendous talent, but I think he might struggle if he is consistently pressured. I think if Paye and Uche can get some pressure on Fields, I think it will bode well for their defense.

Prediction:

Ohio State keeps their streak alive in this game with a 31-17 win.

Wisconsin at Minnesota

Betting Line: Minnesota +2.5

Over/Under: 45.5

Wisconsin had a nice win last week as they beat Purdue 45-24. The Badgers were led on offense by 222 rushing yards from Jonathan Taylor. Taylor will definitely Wisconsin’s go to guy as he has racked up 1,685 rushing yards on the season. If Taylor can remain effective as a runner, I think it is likely that the Badgers game a good day offensively. This also means that Wisconsin’s offensive line will need to uphold their reputation as very good in run blocking. Minnesota does pretty well against the run, so it will not be an easy matchup. Quarterback Jack Coan might not be the go to guys on offense, but he needs to do his part. When throwing the ball, he needs to be able to hit open receivers and take care of the ball. The more he can do beyond that, the better. On defense, Wisconsin can not let Minnesota run on them easily. The weather forecast calls for it to be a bit chilly at kickoff and possibly snowing. This will make passing the ball harder, which will put more of the weight on each rushing attack. Wisconsin’s defense is a bit weaker against the run that it is against the pass, which makes it a slightly tougher task for their defense on Saturday. Linebackers Chris Orr and Zack Baun need to do well in pursuit of the ball. The Badgers will also have a tall task at cornerback if Minnesota tries to test them through the air. Minnesota has a very good receiver duo with Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson. Wisconsin can not let these two guys. If loses against their defense too easily. Cornerbacks Faion Hicks and Richard Wildgoose will have that weight packed in them, and it will be huge if they can slow down Minnesota’s passing attack.

Minnesota put themselves back on the right track last week with a 38-22 win over Northwestern. The Golden Gophers were led by four touchdown passes from quarterback Tanner Morgan. What I think Minnesota needs to do well at in this game is keeping their offense balanced. The run game has not been nearly as present in recent weeks and if Wisconsin can almost fully focus on defending the pass, it will be much harder to be effective through the air. Running back Rodney Smith has 1,063 rushing yards this season, but he has not surpassed 80 yards the last three games. Smith will need a good game on Saturday. Still, the passing game doing well is the one way I think Minnesota’s offense can take control of the game. The receiver duo of Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson have seen at least one of the two players do well in almost every game. If they can get a good game out of either of them in addition to a solid run game, their offense will be firing on all cylinders. On defense, most of their energy will be spent on stopping Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor and getting some resistance on Wisconsin’s patented big and physical offensive line. If Minnesota can make some plays on Taylor and being to wear him out, they will be in good shape. They will also need to get to him first by getting through Wisconsin’s offensive line. Defensive end Carter Coughlin will be the player looked to most for this.

Prediction:

Wisconsin wins a physical game 24-17.

Alabama at Auburn

Betting Line: Auburn +3.5

Over/Under: 49.5

Alabama enjoyed a win last week, but their competition is about to ramp up. The Crimson Tide will again be without star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the offense has taken a definite hit in terms of talent and big play potential. The main goal for the offense this game will be for new quarterback Mac Jokes to do as little as possible. This means that the offensive line will need to protect him against what could be the best defensive front in the country. Jones needs to be afforded time to throw in order to truly be effective. This also means that Alabama’s talented group of receivers will be called upon often today. Their major task will be to create separation against the cornerback covering them. Running back Najee Harris will be asked to lead the offense and I think he can do it but it is far from easy. As I said before a lot of the success offensively will be determined by the offensive line. Alex Leatherwood and Jedrick should man down the tackle spots well but the interior offensive line is a bit more of a question mark. On defense, I think the Crimson Tide should try to get a good pass rush on Auburn quarterback Bo Nix. I think if he faces a lot of pressure, he can be baited into bad throws and Alabama’s cornerbacks are good enough to be able to pounce on those mistakes. While Patrick Surtain and Trevon Diggs are both good cornerbacks, I worry a bit about covering Auburn’s Anthony Schwartz. Schwartz has world class speed in a literal sense as he has won the Gold medal in the 100 meter dash in the U20 World Championships. The Crimson Tide will need to have safety help over the top on obvious passing downs in order to prevent Schwartz from burning them.

Auburn also had a dominant win last week as they beat FCS foe Samford 52-0. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the team they will face this week is probably going to be a bit tougher. Even though Alabama is on their backup quarterback, Auburn will have their work cut out for them. The toughest task of this game for Auburn will be to cover Alabama’s loaded group of receivers. Cornerbacks Noah Igbinoghene, Javaris Davis, and Roger McCreary can not get burned by Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, and the rest of Alabama’s receivers. If they can be sound in coverage, it will be a lot tougher for Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. Auburn also should be able to put a lot of focus into pass coverage because their defensive line has been among the nation’s best. Derrick Brown should command a lot of attention at defensive tackle, which should allow Marlon Davidson and Tyrone Truesdell to feast on one on one blocking. On offense, I think Auburn needs to establish the run game with JaTarvious Whitlow. Auburn’s offensive line also needs to hold up. Left tackle Prince Tega Wangoho should be able to hold up as he is a likely first round pick, but I worry about Alabama attacking the right side. If the offensive line can hold up, it will be a huge help for the offense. Quarterback Bo Nix also can not be phased by Alabama’s defense and can not let the moment get too big for him. While Nix has struggled at times in big games, I do not think it is for this reason but it should be brought up when we are talking about a true freshman quarterback in a big game like this. I think the Tigers could have some success by getting creative with their receivers. I like the size and speed combination they have at receiver with Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz. If they can find ways to get them open, it will be very advantageous. I also expect them to really empty the bag with their play calling for this game and use Schwartz on jet sweeps or reverses. It had had varied success before but I think it should be attempted when you have the fastest man in college football. One big thing for Auburn’s receivers is they can not drop the ball in crucial moments. This problem plagued them against Georgia a couple weeks ago, and will do more of the same if it happens this week.

Prediction:

Alabama wins this game 28-20 in a clear case of talent and coaching prevailing. Then again, this does feel like a year where Auburn would randomly win it.

Texas A&M at LSU

Betting Line: LSU -17

Over/Under: 64

Texas A&M did lose to Georgia last week, but I was impressed with how they hung tough in the 19-13 loss. The one thing that really went wrong for the Aggies in that loss is that they had -2 rushing yards on the day. Until they played Georgia, it looked like Texas A&M had really figured out their run game after struggling early. I do not want to jump to conclusions here, but I think in order to beat a top two team in the country, Texas A&M’s rushing total will need to be a positive number. Isaiah Spiller will need to create some big plays at running back. In addition to that, their offensive line will need to hold up. Spiller has done well in spots against lesser opponents, but he will need to step up here. Quarterback Kellen Mond is a solid starter, but expecting him to do everything and win is a bit much. Mond will need to creat big plays through the air. The fact that he is a good athlete and dual threat should play to his advantage in this game. If Mond can make plays with his legs, it can keep LSU’s defense on their toes. On defense, the Aggies will need to be stout in pass coverage. Myles Jones, Debione Renfro, and Charles Oliver can not get burned by LSU’s receiving corps. LSU has been able to throw on every team they have played this season with relative ease. If Texas A&M wants to keep this game close, they have to provide some resistance. This can also be accomplished by having a good pass rush. LSU has a solid offensive line and a quarterback in Joe Burrow who can evade a pass rush fairy well. Defensive tackle Justin Madubuike leads the team in sacks, but his total of four is not quite eye popping. If Madubuike or someone else on the defensive line can generate some pressure, it will be quite beneficial.

LSU brought home the Golden Boot last week as they beat Arkansas 56-20. LSU’s offense again fired on all cylinders in the win. The Tigers will face a bit stiffer competition in this game though as Texas A&M’s opponents this season have only completed 53% of their passes. I think that LSU can have tremendous success offensively if they can develop the run game as well. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a real breakout game against Alabama and has done well since. If he can get going on the ground, it should make the passing game even more lethal. Receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been listed as one of three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award as he is a very explosive receiver and had 2,260 receiving yards on the season. If he or fellow 1,000 yard receiver Justin Jefferson can break off any big plays, it will be huge for the offense. On defense, the Tigers should use a quarterback spy on Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond. Mond is a solid dual threat that can get yardage on the ground if teams do not prepare for him. I also think that getting a good pass rush with linebackers K’Lavon Chaisson and Jacob Phillips will really stunt Texas A&M’s offense. Texas A&M also has a solid group of possession receivers that will really outmuscle cornerbacks for contested balls. Cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Derek Stingley have to keep tight coverage.

Prediction:

LSU comes up big in a revenge spot from last season and wins 48-27.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Betting Line: Oklahoma State +12

Over/Under: 69

Oklahoma again survived by the skin of their teeth last week as they beat TCU 28-24. The Sooners did fairly well defensively but were plagued by turnovers on offense. Oklahoma State’s defense might not be the best, but their offense will make the Sooners pay if they commit any turnovers. Jalen Hurts has been able to dig Oklahoma out of holes well this season, but he has often put them in those holes with his tendency to fumble the ball or throw a poorly timed interception. Hurts will need to take care of the ball in this game. Hurts also needs to be able consistently get the ball in CeeDee Lamb’s hands. Oklahoma has a lot of playmakers at receiver including Lamb and others, and Hurts should be accurate enough with the ball to set them up well. The Sooners also need to turn to the run game more as they had a lot of success running Kennedy Brooks last week. While I think Hurts does a lot of things well, he can not do everything and I think Oklahoma tries to have him do everything a bit too often. On defense, the Sooners should put a lot of energy into slowing down Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard leads the country with 1,832 yards on 6.4 yards per carry. With injuries at quarterback and receiver, Hubbard could really be Oklahoma State’s entire offense. While Dru Brown, Oklahoma State’s starter for the game on Saturday, has experience as the starter at Hawaii, I think the Cowboys will keep going to the well with Hubbard until Oklahoma finds an answer for him. Linebacker Kenneth Murray has a real nose for the ball and can make plays all over the field. He will need to be strong in pursuit this game. Defensive ends Ronnie Perkins and Nick Bonitto will also need to be able to contain the outside and prevent Hubbard from beating them to the sideline.

Oklahoma State improved to 8-3 on the season last week as they had a 31-13 win over Kansas. The Cowboys have been a bit decimated by injuries on offense recently as star receiver Tylan Wallace and quarterback Spencer Sanders have gone down with season ending injuries in the last few weeks. Thankfully for Oklahoma State, Chuba Hubbard is as healthy as ever at running back. Hubbard is a rare back that gets a lot of carries, but is a major big play threat. With the injuries on offense, I think Oklahoma State will run the offense through Hubbard. If Hubbard can get going in this game, I think he can almost single handedly keep the game close for the Cowboys. Quarterback Dru Brown did pretty well against Kansas last week and I think he can make some plays through the air. I think the Cowboys should be able to do very well on play action with Brown and receiver Dillon Stoner. On defense, Oklahoma State will have the tough task of slowing down Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma’s offense. The Cowboys will need to use a spy on Hurts, especially on passing downs. Hurts can really beat teams on the ground and can be a difficult player to prepare for. I think Oklahoma State needs to press Oklahoma’s receivers at the line and try to force Hurts to make deep throws to beat them. Hurts is very accurate in the short passing game, but he can start to throw ducks when he has to take downfield shots. Oklahoma State also needs to try and force turnovers as winning the turnover battle in what will likely be a shootout can create a major advantage.

Prediction:

Oklahoma wins a wild game 41-38.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. I had a rough week last week as I was 1-4 picking against the spread. I am 40-37-3 against the spread this season.

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