Despite turning in one of the worst defensive seasons in franchise history while losing 12 of the final 13 games, Pro Football Focus is going with the Detroit Lions as the most likely worst-to-first team in 2020.

PFF went through last season’s eight last-place teams and ranked them based on the likelihood they could quickly flip the script.

Related: Detroit Lions GM Bob Quinn denies rumors of Matthew Stafford trade talks

Since the NFL’s divisions realigned in 2002, there have been 22 teams to make the leap from worst to first in a single season. This most recent season represented the first campaign where at least one franchise failed to make the jump since 2014. The San Francisco 49ers were close this year in their run from the Senior Bowl to Super Bowl in a calendar year, but the Arizona Cardinals held down the last place spot in the NFC West in 2018.

When it comes to the analytics site leaning toward Detroit, it’s all about franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford returning to action.

“Getting a healthy Stafford back next season to get the ball into the hands of downfield playmakers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. should be a huge boost to this offense,” PFF writes of the Lions. "With a high draft slot and a decent amount of cap space to work with, there’s an opportunity for the defense to improve, as well.

“It’s not difficult to see the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings taking a step back next season, and that opens the door for Detroit to potentially host its first home playoff game since 1993.”

Stafford missed the final eight games of the season, and the Lions went 0-8 with a combination of David Blough and Jeff Driskel starting under center. PFF compared Stafford’s performance to that of Blough and Driskel’s, which unsurprisingly showed quite the glaring dropoff.

Stafford earned a PFF passing grade of 81.4 while the combination of Blough and Driskel came in at 52.9. The veteran averaged 2.6 more yards per attempt and made 15 more “big-time throws” than those behind him on the depth chart in the same amount of games.

Stafford also led the league with an average depth of target at 11.4 yards through eight weeks. The offense wasn’t just better with Stafford in the game. It was a real threat featuring one of the more lethal passing attacks in the NFL.

Related: Detroit Lions’ over-under set at 6.5 wins for 2020, worst in NFC North

Waiting for Stafford’s return are receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Golladay was named to his first Pro Bowl while leading the league with 11 touchdown catches, and Jones caught nine touchdowns in 13 games. Both top options remain under contract through 2020, while Danny Amendola is a pending free agent after a productive season in Detroit.

The Lions also bring back tight end T.J. Hockenson after the first-round rookie’s season was cut short, and running backs Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough, among others. Detroit faces some questions on the offensive line this offseason with versatile and durable guard Graham Glasgow hitting the open market.

As it was with Stafford on the field, though, Detroit’s success is mainly tied to its defense. The Lions came within 64 yards of matching the franchise record for defensive futility from the 0-16 campaign.

A’Shawn Robinson and Mike Daniels are pending free agents, and fellow defensive lineman Snacks Harrison is contemplating retirement. The team spent $90 million on defensive end Trey Flowers last year and could look to rebuild the line through the draft and free agency.

Former All-Pro cornerback Darius Slay remains under contract through 2020 but has been the subject of trade rumors since the most recent deadline. The two sides have reportedly been in contact in recent weeks regarding a new deal, but Detroit could ship Slay out if the two sides can’t find common ground.

The Lions are armed with the third-overall pick in April’s draft and about $50 million to spend. Many have the team tied to either Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah, Auburn defensive lineman Derrick Brown or even Ohio State star defensive end Chase Young.

Related: Kyle Meinke’s 2020 NFL mock draft 1.0: Lions land Ohio State star Chase Young

While those defenders are popular options, the Lions are a trendy candidate to trade down with more quarterback-needy teams. Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa is viewed as a potential franchise quarterback, and the Lions hold the key to jumping into the top three.

This level of return could set the Lions up for a quick turnaround. The Bears traded a top-three pick, two third- and one fourth-round pick to take quarterback Mitchell Trubisky in 2017. Another recent comparison is when the New York Jets traded the No. 6 pick, two second-round picks and another second-round pick in the next year’s draft to move up to take quarterback Sam Darnold with 2018′s No. 3 pick.

Improving the defense would go a long way in flipping the script from worst to first in the NFC North. The Lions have finished last in both of Matt Patricia’s first two seasons as coach, and ownership has mandated the franchise compete in the division and for the playoffs in 2020.

Detroit hasn’t won the division since 1993, and that’s when it was still called the NFC Central. It’s the longest drought in the league, and to make matters worse, the Tampa Bay Bucs have won the division more recently than the Lions and they’ve been in the NFC South since 2002.

Green Bay reloaded its defense through the draft last season and went 13-3 in coach Matt LaFleur’s first season. The Bears dropped to 8-8 as injuries piled up and the offense regressed under Trubisky, and the Vikings made the playoffs at 10-6. Minnesota won a playoff game and returns most of its core.

Related: Detroit Lions no longer have worst odds in NFL to win next year’s Super Bowl

Related: The Detroit Lions probably won’t draft Tua Tagovailoa

Related: ESPN analyst picks Lions QB Matthew Stafford as MVP in early predictions for 2020 season