Frank Luntz call

From:rwolf@32advisors.com To: john.podesta@gmail.com, jsullivan@hillaryclinton.com Date: 2016-01-15 22:01 Subject: Frank Luntz call

John, Jake- (per my email here-"by memory") Now that I am going on Fox more often I get invited to some interesting stuff & just got off my 1st ever "Big Call" (lol) with Frank Luntz. I have to admit I had no idea what to expect but was pretty impressed by the depth & breadth of the call as well as the diverse audience & questions. I think at least 100 nationwide leaders were on the call (likely 2-1 Rs to Ds), it was an hour and questions came from people from Amazon, Southern Company, NFL, Cancer Research (something) and Putnam to name a few. I will be going into some abstract detail as I never know what is important for you all: I want to be clear at no time was he disrespectful to Potus nor HRC but the questions certainly showed a right leaning audience. 1. He opened up recommending everyone goes to see 13 Hours but made it clear it is not an Obama nor Clinton bashing but tells the story of what really happened. 2. He began with Dems and said Bernie wins both Iowa & New Hampshire, but in same breadth predicted HRC is the nominee. He was very clear that Bernie's ground game is being underestimated and the primary will last longer than anyone expected. He also said that Bernie and Trump benefits from (I think he used the phrase) Open Primary and thus South Carolina will be closer than expected (and HRC gets hurt the most). 3. He predicted Cruz beats Trump in Iowa and will not be as close as everyone expects. 4. He has Trump winning New Hampshire, Cruz in 2nd and thinks Christie could pull ahead of Rubio to 3rd. He views that after New Hampshire both Bush & Kasich drop. Thus South Carolina goes in with 5 Rs (adding Carson). 5. He says that the Repubs are discussing brokered convention and real meetings are happening but no one's too sure who takes role of lead architect. If it is a brokered convention then HRC wins big as Trump voters won't come out. 6. He says Trump is now at 40% probability to win the nomination and although at highest probability he still has Cruz winning because other R votes when people drop out will not go to him. 7. He highlighted that both Bernie and Trump are benefiting the most from Independents which he found surprising due to their polarizing nature. 8. Some call in questions (I am only going to focus on one w HRC) : A. Discuss the Black vote: was clear that the evidence shows that the economy (income inequality) has hit this group harder than anyone by far under Obama's 7 years and thus this could impact HRC with get out the vote. B. How important is likeability -he said very and used the "who do you want to have a beer" analogy still resonates (ie-Obama, Bush-yes/ Romney, Kerry -no). Felt this helps Trump the most and not anyone else. C. Do the recent comments by Trump on President Clinton hurt HRC and does the "enabler" phrase stick. He said Trump's comments did hurt HRC (and he was incredibly surprised that she even responded). He also said if either Trump/Cruz win that they will use Bill Cosby case as brutal comparison. D. Recent HRC emails, he viewed that 2 emails are tough ones for HRC to explain and the FBI stigma will be a real overhang. E. The other questions were away from HRC and on funding, Senate races (thinks D's do well with HRC), and others. Happy to answer any & all on above, RW ________________________________ Disclaimer: Visit www.32advisors.com/disclaimer for information about this email.