Exit polls: How Obama won

Barack Obama, who will be the nation’s first African-American president, won the largest share of white support of any Democrat in a two-man race since 1976 amid a backdrop of economic anxiety unseen in at least a quarter-century, according to exit polls by The Associated Press and the major television networks.

Obama became the first Democrat to also win a majority since Jimmy Carter with the near-unanimous backing of blacks and the overwhelming support of youth as well as significant inroads with white men and strong support among Hispanics and educated voters.


The Illinois senator won 43 percent of white voters, 4 percentage points below Carter’s performance in 1976 and equal to what Bill Clinton won in the three-man race of 1996. Republican John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote.

Fully 96 percent of black voters supported Obama and constituted 13 percent of the electorate, a 2-percentage-point rise in their national turnout. As in past years, black women turned out at a higher rate than black men.

A stunning 54 percent of young white voters supported Obama, compared with 44 percent who went for McCain, the senator from Arizona. In the past three decades, no Democratic presidential nominee has won more than 45 percent of young whites.

It also appears youth turnout rose 1 point since 2004, to constitute 18 percent of the electorate.

McCain won a majority of every other age of white voters, which appeared to limit Obama’s reach into many traditionally Republican states.

Obama performed slightly worse with white women, 39 percent of voters, than Al Gore did in 2000. McCain won the votes of white women, 53 to 46 percent, perhaps an indication of the historical candidacy of his running mate, Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska.

Obama compensated for the drop-off in white female support with the strong 41 percent support from white men. No Democrat since Carter had until Tuesday’s election earned more than 38 percent of the white male vote.

In 2000, white women split between the two parties while Republicans won white men by 24 percentage points. That white male gap was dramatically narrowed Tuesday to 16 points, a trend that began with the financial crisis, and one that allowed Obama to split the male vote overall.

McCain won only 57 percent of the votes of white men, who were again 36 percent of the electorate.

White college graduates, 35 percent of voters, broke for McCain 51 to 47 percent, marking roughly a 3-point gain for Obama compared to Gore’s 44 percent showing.

Obama performed at a similar level as Gore with working-class whites, earning 40 percent of their support to McCain’s 59 percent, which is roughly similar to George W. Bush’s performance in 2000 and 2004.

Obama’s victory also stretched into other key blocs won by Bush four years ago. Suburban voters, who were half of the electorate, split between Obama and McCain. Rural voters, who went for Bush by 19 points in 2004, leaned to McCain by 8 points. And married voters, who went to Bush by 15 points, leaned to McCain by 6 this year.

Hispanics, who as in 2004 were 8 percent of voters, went for Obama by more than 2-to1, 67 percent to 30 percent. That marks a roughly 10-point drop-off in Republican Hispanic support, compared to Bush’s performance in 2004.

Obama also won 84 percent of those Democrats who backed New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the hard-fought presidential primaries.

White independents, a fifth of voters, roughly split between the major party candidates, which has not occurred in a two-man race in three decades. It was McCain’s support that was down compared to Bush in 2004, no small referendum on his effort to campaign as the “maverick.” Obama earned the same level of support as Democrat John F. Kerry in 2004 — 47 percent.

On the major issues, 63 percent of voters said the economy was the most important, six times more than cited the war in Iraq (10 percent), health care (9 percent), terrorism (9 percent) or energy (7 percent).

Not since 1980, in the shadow of a gas crisis and stagflation, did the economy dominate voters' concerns as it did Tuesday. Back then, almost seven in 10 voters named either the economy or inflation, jobs and unemployment, or balancing the federal budget as the top issue on their minds.

In 2004, only 20 percent of voters cited the economy, while 22 percent cited moral values, 19 percent terrorism and 15 percent Iraq. In 2000 as well, the economy/jobs, taxes, education, Social Security and world affairs all carried roughly equal weight among the voters.

This marked issue contrast in four years explains, in large part, why Obama came into Election Day the strong favorite, both in national and state polling. Voters have seen Obama throughout most of the general election campaign as the more capable steward of the economy.

Nearly all voters agreed the economy was in poor shape. Eight in 10 said they were worried the economic crisis would harm their family’s future, while about half said they were “very worried.”

At least four in 10 said their family's financial situation worsened since 2004. And a stunning two-thirds expressed concern about affording health care.

More than a third of voters said the quality that mattered most in their candidate was the capacity to bring about change in Washington.

For McCain, who maintained his edge in the public’s view as the stronger candidate on national security issues, the utter dominance of economic issues overwhelmed his campaign.

About seven in 10 voters said they were worried about another domestic terrorist attack — about the same level of anxiety as in 2004 — and they leaned to McCain. But less than half as many voters this year named terrorism as their top issue, compared to four years ago

Fully 86 percent of those who said terrorism was the top issue voted for McCain — but they barely constituted one-tenth of the electorate.

The issue shift, though, was not the only factor behind the poor political environment for Republicans this year.

The public exhibited remarkably high, though not surprising, displeasure with the political status quo. Roughly three in four voters disapproved of the White House and Congress. Three in four voters saw the country on the wrong track, about 25 percent more than four years ago.

About a quarter of exit poll respondents approved of Bush’s job performance, where about half did four years ago. This year, half of voters said they "strongly disapproved" of Bush and about eight in 10 of those voters backed Obama.