india

Updated: Nov 29, 2018 00:10 IST

The Central Statistical Office (CSO), which is responsible for releasing official GDP data, has released official back series of the 2011-12 GDP series up to 2004-05. These numbers will allow the comparison of economic performance under the Modi government with the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, which was in office from 2004 to 2014. The big take away from the numbers is that the economy has performed much better under the present government. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP at market prices (2011-12 series) was 7.3% between 2014-15 and 2017-18, higher than the 6.7% and 6.4% between 2004-05 and 2009-10 (UPA I) and between 2009-10 and 2013-14 (UPA II). This is a departure from the wisdom based on old GDP series (2004-05), which showed the economy booming under UPA I . According to the old series, CAGR of GDP at market prices was 8% and 6.6% under the UPA I and UPA II.

These estimates are a revision over the ones given by a committee formed by the National Statistical Commission (NSC) in August, which showed that the Indian economy actually touched double digit growth in 2006-07 under the UPA I government. The NSC’s estimates were “not as per the methodology recommended by the United Nations System of National Accounts, 2008” which is the internationally accepted methodology for compiling GDP estimates, Niti Aayog said.

“The revised data for 2004-05 – 2011-12, that is based on 2011-12 base year, is a significant improvement both in terms of coverage and methodology. The new series, with its supporting back series, is internationally comparable and in sync with the UN Standard National Account 2008…The recalibration exercise led to a change in growth rates in back series and our methodology was checked twice by renowned statisticians. Owing to the new methodology used there is no risk of manipulation.” Rajiv Kumar, deputy chairman of the NITI Aayog told HT.

Responding to the findings, Congress’s chief spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala said, “The entire GDP Back Series Data reflects the desperate attempt of a defeatist Modi Govt to undermine India’s Growth Story over last 15 years.”

He added, “Modi Govt and its puppet Niti Aayog want the people to believe that 2+2= 8! Such is the gimmickry, jugglery, trickery & chicanery being sold as ‘Back Series Data’.”

TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India, who attended a meeting held on 22 November to deliberate on the report, told HT that CSO will use the back series numbers up to 2004-05 to release GDP data for earlier years by using the splicing method. When asked to explain the downward revision of UPA- era growth, Anant said this was a statistical inevitability of sorts. “The 2011-12 series came up with a lower GDP figure for 2103-14 than the 2004-05 series. So, there was always going to be a downward revision in earlier GDP figures,” he said. However, he suggested caution while making quick comparisons between the two series due to methodological issues. “The 2004-05 series overestimated growth in trade and informal sector, which was corrected by the new series. However, it underestimated growth in the industry sector, which cannot be corrected by the new series due to lack of availability of Ministry of Corporate Affairs data for the earlier period”, Anant added.