On Friday of this week, I will be posting this year's initial S&P+ projections for the 2017 college football season. The rankings are primarily a mix of three factors: returning production, two-year recruiting, and recent history.

This is easy enough to explain. To figure out who's going to be good next year, we basically ask three questions: Who's been good? Who's returning their good players? And how good is the talent that teams are bringing in?

There will always be misses using this approach, simply because college football is only so predictable. S&P+ certainly nailed an Alabama-Clemson finale last year (not that that was an out-on-a-limb projection) and helped build Washington hype, but it also thought Ole Miss would be a lot better than the Rebels were (even before injuries).

We overreact to small pieces of information — bowl bumps and whatnot — but S&P+ is in a way designed to underreact.

As a lead-up to Friday's projections, let's look at each individual factor and what it has to tell us. On Tuesday, we'll look at returning production, and on Thursday, following National Signing Day, we'll look at shifts in recruiting.

Here's a look at each team's updated five-year history.

This isn't specifically what goes into the projections — there is extra weight given to more recent seasons, particularly last year — but it sets the table. I'm also including some trend information. You can also look at last year's five-year history figure to see whose prospects are rising and falling.

A terrifying thought: Alabama's prospects appear to be ... rising.

Five-year S&P+ Team Avg. S&P+ (2012-16) 5-year Rk Avg. S&P+ (2011-15) Change Change Rk Team Avg. S&P+ (2012-16) 5-year Rk Avg. S&P+ (2011-15) Change Change Rk Alabama 27.5 1 26.2 1.3 38 Ohio State 20.7 2 17 3.7 8 Florida State 18.8 3 16.6 2.2 19 Clemson 18.6 4 14.3 4.3 4 LSU 17.3 5 18.1 -0.8 83 Oklahoma 16.9 6 17.3 -0.5 76 Stanford 16.4 7 17.5 -1.1 89 USC 15.1 8 14 1.1 43 Notre Dame 14.3 9 15.5 -1.2 91 Michigan 14.3 10 12.7 1.6 32 Texas A&M 14.1 11 15.3 -1.2 90 Ole Miss 14 12 11.7 2.4 18 Wisconsin 14 13 13.7 0.3 58 Auburn 13.9 14 11.3 2.6 17 Florida 13.8 15 12.2 1.5 33 Baylor 13.5 16 14.6 -1.1 88 Oregon 13.2 17 17.7 -4.5 128 Georgia 12.5 18 15.6 -3.1 124 Michigan State 12.2 19 14 -1.9 109 Louisville 11.6 20 8 3.6 9 Mississippi State 11.4 21 11.2 0.2 62 Washington 11.3 22 7.7 3.6 10 UCLA 11.1 23 11.2 0 68 TCU 10.1 24 11.3 -1.3 93 Oklahoma State 9.9 25 12.8 -2.9 122 Penn State 9.7 26 8.9 0.8 48 Boise State 9.6 27 11.9 -2.3 115 Miami-FL 9.6 28 7.8 1.9 27 BYU 9.4 29 8.4 1 45 Tennessee 9.3 30 8.8 0.5 54 Kansas State 9.1 31 8.7 0.3 57 Arkansas 9 32 10.4 -1.4 97 Georgia Tech 8.6 33 7.5 1.2 41 Virginia Tech 8.4 34 7.8 0.6 53 Pittsburgh 7.8 35 5.9 1.9 25 Nebraska 7.5 36 8.7 -1.2 92 Texas 7.5 37 8.2 -0.8 81 Arizona State 7.2 38 9.3 -2.1 111 Utah 7 39 5.9 1.1 42 Missouri 7 40 9.2 -2.2 113 North Carolina 6.9 41 5.8 1.1 44 South Carolina 6.7 42 9.4 -2.7 120 Utah State 6.1 43 5.8 0.2 63 Iowa 5.5 44 4.3 1.2 39 West Virginia 5.3 45 4.9 0.3 59 Toledo 4.7 46 6.5 -1.8 106 Western Kentucky 4.5 47 -0.2 4.7 2 Arizona 4 48 5.5 -1.5 100 Minnesota 4 49 2.1 1.9 23 NC State 3.8 50 0.9 2.9 13 Texas Tech 3.6 51 2.8 0.8 47 Northwestern 3.2 52 1.6 1.6 30 Appalachian State 2.9 53 1 1.9 24 Indiana 2.6 54 -1.1 3.8 5 Oregon State 2.5 55 2.3 0.3 61 San Diego State 2.5 56 1 1.6 31 Houston 2.3 57 2.9 -0.5 78 Memphis 2.2 58 -4.4 6.6 1 Navy 2.1 59 0.7 1.4 36 California 2 60 2.4 -0.4 73 Cincinnati 1.7 61 3.4 -1.8 108 Georgia Southern 1.3 62 4.8 -3.5 126 Syracuse 1.3 63 1.2 0.1 65 Duke 1.1 64 1.1 0.1 64 Boston College 0.3 65 1.1 -0.8 84 Washington State 0 66 -3.1 3.1 11 Northern Illinois -0.4 67 0.9 -1.3 96 Arkansas State -0.4 68 0 -0.4 74 Central Florida -0.6 69 0.1 -0.8 82 Louisiana Tech -0.8 70 -0.3 -0.5 79 Iowa State -0.9 71 -0.9 0 66 Virginia -0.9 72 -0.1 -0.9 85 Marshall -1.2 73 1.4 -2.6 118 Colorado State -1.5 74 -6 4.6 3 Bowling Green -1.5 75 0.8 -2.3 116 Temple -1.5 76 -2.2 0.7 51 South Florida -1.6 77 -1.4 -0.3 69 East Carolina -1.7 78 -0.4 -1.3 95 Kentucky -1.7 79 -3 1.3 37 Vanderbilt -2.1 80 0.3 -2.4 117 Maryland -2.4 81 -2 -0.4 75 Western Michigan -2.9 82 -4.1 1.2 40 Illinois -3 83 -1.2 -1.8 107 Air Force -3.4 84 -5 1.5 35 Fresno State -3.7 85 -2.4 -1.3 94 Purdue -3.8 86 -2.4 -1.4 98 Tulsa -3.8 87 -2.2 -1.7 104 San Jose State -4 88 -3.1 -0.9 86 Colorado -4.3 89 -8.1 3.8 6 Wake Forest -4.4 90 -4.8 0.4 56 Ball State -4.9 91 -4.1 -0.9 87 Middle Tennessee -5.2 92 -7.9 2.7 15 UL-Lafayette -5.8 93 -5.8 0 67 Rutgers -6.3 94 -3.3 -3 123 Ohio -6.6 95 -6.1 -0.5 77 Troy -6.7 96 -9.7 3 12 Nevada -6.8 97 -2.9 -3.9 127 Southern Miss -7.7 98 -5.7 -2 110 SMU -8.3 99 -6 -2.3 114 South Alabama -8.4 100 -9 0.6 52 Florida Atlantic -8.5 101 -10.4 1.9 26 Rice -8.8 102 -7.2 -1.6 103 Kent State -8.9 103 -7.3 -1.6 101 Central Michigan -8.9 104 -9.8 0.8 46 Akron -9 105 -11.2 2.2 20 Wyoming -9.3 106 -11.1 1.8 28 North Texas -9.5 107 -8.8 -0.7 80 Connecticut -9.5 108 -6.7 -2.8 121 UTSA -9.8 109 -10.1 0.3 60 Old Dominion -10 111 -12.9 2.9 14 New Mexico -10 112 -13.8 3.7 7 Tulane -10.2 113 -12.8 2.6 16 Kansas -10.2 114 -9.9 -0.3 70 UNLV -10.7 115 -11.1 0.4 55 Hawaii -11.2 116 -11.9 0.7 50 Buffalo -11.3 117 -9.7 -1.6 102 UL-Monroe -12.3 118 -10.1 -2.2 112 Idaho -13 119 -15 2 22 Florida International -13.8 120 -12.1 -1.7 105 Miami-OH -14 121 -12.6 -1.5 99 Texas State -14.3 122 -10.9 -3.4 125 UTEP -14.5 123 -11.8 -2.6 119 Georgia State -14.5 124 -16 1.5 34 Eastern Michigan -15.7 125 -17.4 1.7 29 Army -16 126 -15.7 -0.3 71 Massachusetts -16.5 127 -17.3 0.8 49 Charlotte -19.5 128 -21.6 2.1 21 New Mexico State -19.8 129 -19.5 -0.4 72

Teams like Memphis and WKU, who have gone from dreadful to among the Group of 5's steadier programs, lead the way in terms of five-year shifts, and another awful-to-decent program (New Mexico) shows up high there, as well.

But here are your top 10 improving power conference teams:

Clemson (+4.3 points) Indiana (+3.8) Colorado (+3.8) Ohio State (+3.7) Louisville (+3.6) Washington (+3.6) Washington State (+3.1) NC State (+2.9) Auburn (+2.6) Ole Miss (+2.4)

On the flip side, here are the 10 power programs whose 2016s compared least favorably with their 2011s, making their five-year averages suffer the most:

Oregon (-4.5) Georgia (-3.1) Rutgers (-3.0) Oklahoma State (-2.9) South Carolina (-2.7) Vanderbilt (-2.4) Missouri (-2.2) Arizona State (-2.1) Michigan State (-1.9) Illinois (-1.8)

College football’s top tier is pretty well-defined.

Alabama is still the sport’s surest thing, and Ohio State, Florida State, and Clemson are vying to catch up overall, even though Clemson fans are surely not worried about their team’s status right now. LSU, Oklahoma, and Stanford are not dramatically far behind.

(Note: I have posted new S&P+ rankings for 2014 and 2015 at Football Outsiders. These include the special teams ratings that I introduced this past offseason. I will get to the 2005-13 seasons as soon as I can. This means that the 2011-15 averages here are slightly different than the ones I shared when prepping for last year’s projections unveil.)