Hi, everyone! Welcome back to my blog and to my Power Rankings after the fifth episode of Survivor: Winners at War! The tribe swap threw everyone for a loop, including myself, and it led to some hilarious and not-so-hilarious moments that very well could have a major impact on the game going forward. Sorry I didn’t get this out to you all earlier — with all of the crazy stuff going on in the world, this fell a bit by the wayside!

For those new and returning, here’s how my Power Rankings work. Each week I’ll rank the Castaways by tribe based on a few (admittedly-somewhat-arbitrary) factors: How likely I think they are to go home in the next episode, how much ‘power’ they have in the game (whether that’s physical, social, strategic, or a combo of all 3), how they performed in the previous episode, and what — if anything — seems to be in store for them in the next episode based on previews and the like. I’m going to try a new format with this, so everyone’s ordered from first to last from top to bottom. There’s not a points system and no big prize at the end for me — this is just for fun! Finally, I’m not spoiled in any way, and I intend to keep it that way. So, PLEASE don’t send me spoilers. That’s not cool.

And now, with out any further delay, let’s get on to the Power Rankings!

SPOILER WARNING: IF YOU HAVEN’T SEEN EPISODE 5, “The Buddy System on Steroids”, DON’T SCROLL DOWN PAST THE TRIBAL IMMUNITY IDOL!!! GO WATCH THE EPISODE, THEN COME BACK AND ENJOY!

Yul had some absolutely inspiring content this episode as he talked about fellow Cook Islands contestant Jonathan Penner (who also played on Micronesia and Philippines) and his wife, Stacy Title’s battle with ALS. It’s really heartbreaking but I’m so glad that Yul was willing to be vulnerable and share that with Sarah and Wendell and that CBS and Survivor are helping to raise awareness for Penner and Stacy’s struggle. Check out this link to learn more! Back in the game, Yul got really lucky with swapping onto new Sele. He has two allies in Wendell and Nick, a former connection in Parvati, and then Michele who is kind of the x factor where Yul is concerned. We saw him and Parv reconnect, and I think that if Yul, Parv, and Michele team up, that would be pretty awesome. Yul is in a great spot socially, and considering that TWO tribes will vote someone out (two people go home!!) in Episode 6, having those social connections might be a massive safety net for Yul. Of course, he’s also in the majority in regards to the original tribe makeup of 3 Dakal and 2 Sele. I’m a little worried that if Sele does go to Tribal (which would be the darkest timeline), the others could recognize what a giant threat Yul poses and could flip on him — we know Parv wouldn’t be above that, and if Wendell realizes that he might not be in a great spot, he could definitely flip. However, I’m pretty optimistic that new Sele is way better at challenges than old Sele.

New season, who dis? It’s Michele, and she had a pretty fire episode if I do say so myself. She’s at #2 on new Sele because really I think that there’s a BIG gap between Yul and everyone else. Michele could be in real danger because she’s down in numbers and has this beef with Wendell (which may or may not get resolved to better both of their games), but she also could be in a great spot because she seems like she’s garnering a lot of sympathy from the Wendell situation and that might make the Dakals turn on him. She has options — she can turn everyone against Wendell, she can throw Parv under the bus… I think that she will survive this. The swap didn’t work too well for her in Kaoh Rong and she won. So, perhaps history is repeating itself a bit? Am I too optimistic for my winner pick? Yeah, probs. But, let’s face it, I know she can make it through a bad swap.

Nick survived by the skin of his teeth in a sense, and was gifted a Fire Token by Tyson, but right now Nick still is kind of floating through the pre-merge phase. He had a very awkward moment with Parv in which he confessed to her he had a crush on her in high school (which to be honest I don’t fault him for because I probably would have gotten so starstruck by EVERYONE), so I don’t know really how that will bode for him in terms of his relationship with her. Nick is still ultimately a pretty big enigma, but he did have a really interesting confessional in which he talked about getting the token from Tyson and saying that he might use that as an olive branch to work with him should he re-enter the game from the Edge — and I think that’s such a wise way to think about it. Nice job, Nick!

Parvati might very well be in deep trouble this week, and probably more than she’s ever been in. She’s clearly on the bottom with Michele, but those two are known for their impeccable social games… so I would not count them out in the slightest. Parv has a connection with Yul and now has this awkward thing with Nick… so if she can rope them in to take out Wendell who she is clearly not super interested in working with at this point because she’s so tight with Michele, that four can take out Wen. OR, Parv might bite the dust because she’s such a big threat. OR, maybe not because with Rob just having been voted out, she can be a bigger shield. There are SO many ways this could go if Sele loses, which is why I don’t want them to lose. What Parv could really do to shake up the game is use her four Fire Tokens to purchase a challenge advantage, which surely would earn her some brownie points from her tribemates and hopefully help Sele stay safe.

Wendell had his breakout episode this season… but OH BOY WAS IT BAD. So, apparently things didn’t end well between him and Michele (which is sad) but to make matters worse he was a ‘locked vault’ to Parv and even kind of shut Michele down when they were talking. BIG CRINGE, MAN. Now, I love Wendell and I think that there’s a way he can get out of this, and it’s by putting his trust in Michele and playing things up to put the heat off of them. I think that would be cool. However, if Parv has an in with Yul, Nick, and Michele, who’s she gonna target? Wen. If Sele loses and Parv works her magic, I think Wendell is gonna have to kick it all the way to the Edge. His saving grace might be that he’s a huge challenge asset, so I really hope that Sele wins!

Kim had an absolutely FANTASTIC swap. She’s in a numerical majority (albeit with people she doesn’t trust), has an Idol, AND has a prime opportunity to flip to people who she seems to want to work with and trust. So, it’s really good news for Kim who has been on the bottom of old Dakal since Day 1. I really don’t think there’s necessarily a wrong choice for her to make if Dakal goes to Tribal.

Jeremy, despite swapping into the minority on Dakal, is in a fantastic position. He was able to quench his thirst for knowledge by obtaining a nice tall glass of beer of information (his words, not mine) from Kim about the dynamics of the three Dakals. He’s tight with Denise by necessity and is doing a great job socially, so I think that if Dakal goes to Tribal, he’s going to be fine. Well, of course, he has his Safety Without Power advantage which he can definitely use, but I think that given the circumstances, I think he won’t need to use it. The biggest caveat with his advantage is that it has to be used BEFORE the votes are cast, unlike an Idol that has to be used after they’re cast and before they’re read. So, hopefully Jeremy can suss out if he needs to play it, if he needs to play it! I also just need to commend Jeremy (and Sandra) on getting that puzzle done in the challenge and making up a lot of lost time!

Denise didn’t have to go to Tribal again this week, which I bet was a great sigh of relief for her. Though she swapped into the minority on Dakal, she and Jeremy seemed to really send Kim all of the good vibes and hopefully will convince her to flip to the Seles. Denise continues to be a quieter presence in the game, so I hope that is working to her favor at the moment, especially on a five-person tribe. I know that Tony seemed to want her out when he was talking with Sandra, but other than that I don’t think she’s really been on anyone’s radar to target since the Adam debacle.

Sandra is in an interesting spot, as her Idol she got from Natalie on the Edge of Extinction expires at Sandra’s next Tribal Council, and with two tribes going to Tribal this week, it’s statistically likely that she will go to Tribal and therefore use it. So, I don’t think Sandra’s going home. What will be hard for her to do, I think, is convince Kim not to flip on her and Tony, but I reckon that Sandra has a lot of tricks up her sleeves. The Queen isn’t done yet, but she’s got a lot of work to do.

Tony had what seemed to be a great conversation with Kim after the swap, but it likely wasn’t enough to convince Kim to stay Dakal strong in the moment. Tony is in a precarious spot this week because he is the only member of Dakal to NOT possess an Immunity-granting advantage of any kind. Jeremy has the Safety Without Power, and Sandra, Kim, and Denise all have an Idol. Thus, if EVERYONE plays their advantages… Tony will get Cirie’d out of the game… being the only person who can receive votes because everyone else is immune, even if nobody voted for him. That would be as heartbreaking as it was in Game Changers with Cirie. However, I think that the likelihood of everyone playing their advantages is low, so I think that there’s a way out for Tony — and it’s to really work hard at making sure Kim is with him and Sandra. It won’t be easy, but I’ll be gutted if Tony goes out pre-merge again.

Sophie came out of this swap probably in the best position of anyone, finding an Idol (again in two halves which she shared with Sarah), working up a small alliance of sorts with Adam, and then being a part of the plan to vote out Rob. She is on nobody’s radar — just like last week — and is in such a good spot on Yara that she really can further kick the Seles while they’re down and capitalize on the 2-2 split to have her pick of who goes. I worry that she and Sarah might disagree on who to keep if Yara goes to Tribal, but I think that they will be able to come to a decision. Sophie has so much knowledge right now of not only the dynamics on old Dakal but also now old Sele thanks to getting the boys to spill a lot about the past votes, and she also knows that Kim has an Idol as well. So, it’s looking great for Sophie. Even though the puzzle on the challenge didn’t work out as it usually did for Sophie, I think she won’t take a lot of heat for that AND I think that she has the tools to manage if Yara loses again. For her first ever tribe swap, I think Sophie did a fantastic job. Go Sophie!

Sarah is tight with Sophie and is forging a connection with Ben, so she’s doing fantastic socially. She’s got her Vote Steal which she can and absolutely should use if she thinks that Adam and Ben will stick together if Yara goes to Tribal again. She can guarantee she stays in the game and that either Ben or Adam go out and hopefully keep whoever stays close to her. Other than that, she got the episode title which is always fun. I really love Sarah this season, and she is doing so well at bonding with everyone, which is definitely a big help going forward.

Ben seems to be in a better spot than Adam is. He forged a bond with Sarah and used his information about Rob and Adam to make her seem like she wants to work with him, and plus Ben is just an all-around stronger challenge asset than Adam is, so if Yara does go to Tribal tonight… I think Adam might be in a bad way. That said, Ben could easily go if Sophie convinces Sarah to stick with Adam instead. So, it will be very interesting to see what happens. In any case, I think painting Adam as a flip-flopper to Sarah was a good move.

Adam managed to turn one vote in his favor by voting out Rob, but deliberately putting himself and Ben into a 2-2 split is a risky gamble. As viewers we know that Sarah and Sophie both have advantages and Adam and Ben don’t, so on paper it doesn’t look good. Also, like I said with Ben, I think Adam just has a negative reputation at this point. It’s of course in Ben and Adam’s best interest now to flip on each other — making Ben’s comment at the swap of “Stay Blue, stay true” pretty moot. It also doesn’t help that Adam hasn’t been super great in the challenges, especially with this first one as new tribes. I think that it’s probably Adam who gets the boot if Yara loses again.

And now, to give my thoughts on the sixth winner voted out and sent to the Edge of Extinction:

Big OOF for Boston Rob. While the Buddy System worked in Redemption Island, trying to pull that off with all winners just seemed so unlikely to work. Perhaps it was the very not-subtle machete sharpening that did him in? Nah, Rob just didn’t play the greatest social game with Sophie and Sarah unlike Adam and Ben. It’s interesting because Rob, in his five seasons, has been pre-merge twice (HvV and WaW), made it to the end twice (All-Stars and RI) and was the Merge Boot but not a Juror in Marquesas. He definitely plays with a certain style, and ultimately, it just didn’t work with this caliber of competition. I’m excited to see how he interacts with the people he voted out on the Edge, as well as Amber and Tyson. Also, I’m happy he gave his Fire Tokens to Parv, putting her total at 4 — which can definitely help her going forward. So, Rob’s still got a lot more influence in the game!

This episode was overall really great — though I wish we saw a little more Dakal, I think that the editing was a lot more even than is usual in 3-tribe episodes, and I really loved the challenge this week. I’m very happy we didn’t have any Edge of Extinction content this episode because it really helped to give everyone still in the game proper some more time to shine.

And that does it for my Power Rankings for Episode 5! Let me know in the comments or on Twitter what you think! Do you agree with my rankings? Do you think I’m crazy wrong? Do you just want to talk Survivor? I want to hear from you!

Catch Episode 6 of Survivor: Winners at War, entitled “Quick on the Draw” on Wednesday, March 18th at 7 PM Central, 8 PM Eastern! I’m so excited but so nervous for tonight. With only one tribe being safe from Tribal Council, who will win? Personally (and it should not be surprising) I’m rooting for Sele because I really want Michele and Parv to make it through. I think that the dynamics of a vote would be so much more interesting on Dakal and Yara. Based on the title it looks like some people might get pretty trigger-happy, especially with the amount of advantages and Idols floating around in the game right now. It will be so interesting to see how it plays out, and I only can hope that the two boots don’t break my heart that much.

Thanks so much for reading, and if you want to stay updated on the goings-on of the blog, ask me questions, or find out more about me personally, follow me on Twitter!

-Austin