Attack on group’s last urban stronghold in Iraq is most critical challenge yet to its ‘caliphate’ which led to exodus of refugees

Iraqi and Kurdish forces are finalising plans to attack the last urban stronghold of Islamic State in Iraq, the northern city of Mosul, which after a month-long buildup is now largely surrounded by a 60,000-strong force.



The assault could begin as early as this weekend and is the most critical challenge yet to Isis’s two-year-old “caliphate”, which had shredded state authority in the region’s heartland, led to a mass exodus of refugees, attempted a genocide of minorities and led to grave doubts over Iraq’s viability.



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Iraqi forces, which have driven hundreds of miles for what Baghdad has hailed as a last battle against the terror group, moved into their final positions on Friday, joining Kurdish Peshmerga soldiers ahead of an expected advance from the south. Also on the ground are US, British and French special forces, who have been advising Peshmerga troops. They will play a prominent role in calling in airstrikes against Isis targets inside the city.



Isis is thought to have around 6,000 fighters ready to defend Mosul, hidden among an estimated civilian population of 600,000, most of whom are expected to flee as the battle intensifies.



The new wave of refugees is likely to be far more difficult to manage than the war itself, with authorities and aid agencies desperately trying to finalise plans ahead of the attack. Save the Children, one of numerous NGOs near Mosul, said some refugees had died on an arduous trip to a holding camp south of the city.



Aram Shakaram, Save the Children’s deputy director in Iraq, said: “Children are arriving from Hawija on the verge of death. Food in the area is running out and they are hungry, thirsty and absolutely exhausted, having walked barefoot through mountains full of landmines and Isis patrols.



“Our team heard of a woman and her 17-year-old nephew who collapsed and died just a few kilometres away from help.”



Kurdish forces are expecting stiff resistance from the terror group, which has already lost the cities of Tikrit, Ramadi, Sinjar and Fallujah and a vast area of land close to Erbil.

Despite more than a year of US-led airstrikes, mortars continue to rain down on Kurdish forces. Isis is also believed to have placed thousands of improvised explosives in villages on the road to Mosul. The mines and improvised bombs are likely to make the going slow, and and war planners are expecting the campaign to last at least one month.



Isis has also used mustard gas against Kurdish forces – up to 19 times in the past two years. The militants thought responsible for the group’s chemical weapons programme are believed to have all been captured, or killed, but a risk remains of further attacks.



The UN estimates that as many as 700,000 of Mosul’s residents will be in desperate need as the attack gets under way. At least another 600,000 residents and residents of the Nineveh plains are already receiving aid after fleeing the city after the Isis invasion.

