Most Mock Drafts Are Wrong On These Draft Prospects

Here is the long-awaited (1 day) companion piece to yesterday’s Underrated Draft Prospects I Love More Than You article, this time focusing on the draft prospects who are going much earlier in mock drafts than I believe they should go in the actual NFL Draft next week.

These players have many fans. I expect some blowback. Just let me make clear, here and now, that these are the players who I like less than popular consensus. It does NOT mean I don’t like them as prospects, and definitely doesn’t mean I want them to fail.

Two guys in particular on this list (Haskins and Metcalf) are guys who are unquestionably likable, and I hope so badly that they reach their ceiling, because it will make the NFL more fun for years to come if they do. But there is at least one drawback per prospect, that I believe make them risky or even undesirable in the range where they are currently going in mock drafts. Being right about a player is nice, but having a good sense of the accurate range in which a player will be picked, and winning your mock draft pool by mocking him to a team in that range… that’s where it really matters.

Again, if you having made a mock draft pool with your friends, there’s still plenty of time:

Get the free app. Make a mock draft. Join a mock draft pool or make one for you and your friends. Draft day will never be the same, after you have a rooting interest in every pick.

Now… on to the Overhyped!

The 5 Overrated Draft Prospects I’m Just Not That Into

1) Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

I talked about Haskins a bunch on reddit yesterday when discussing my love for Grier, and his ranking above Haskins. I love Haskins the guy. Love him. In fact, if I’m going strictly on intangibles and personality, he’s easily my favorite QB in the class, and will be one of my favorites in the league. But when it comes to what most teams want out of their QB, it’s throwing the ball well, and I have my concerns.

Haskins used to be my QB2. But then, after the combine, when Parris Campbell looked amazing running routes and catching the ball over his shoulder, I went back and watched some more from him to see why Ohio State wouldn’t use him more vertically.

Then, the more I saw of Haskins, the more I noticed something troubling. He threw with a very high arc on his deep passes, which is usually an indicator of a lack of arm strength. The ball would hang up in the air, then come down at a near-vertical angle. I went back to look at Lock and see the path of his balls in the air, and the contrast was stark. When he threw a deep pass, he zipped it. Looked like the ball barely had to rise at all- almost a straight line to the WR. No hanging in the air. I went back to Haskins. Big throwing motion, high arc.

That’s when I realized Ohio State was probably not scheming Campbell on short routes to mask his route running or pass catching deficiencies… I think they were masking Haskins’ deficiencies in throwing deep with enough velocity to avoid hanging the ball up there.

We already know Haskins is not athletic and that he can struggle when things break down under pressure, but adding concerns over his arm strength to the mix has to bump him down a couple spots for me, regardless of how great he is above the shoulders or how he can get his team to rally around him. I think whoever coaches him at the next level will have to scheme around his weaknesses by either formulating an ultra-conservative game plan, or dealing with a lot of turnovers.

My comp for him is Chad Pennington, and I think it illuminates where I am high (intelligence, leadership, short accuracy) and low (athleticism, under pressure, arm strength) on him. I think he is definitely behind Drew Lock, and should be ranked behind Will Grier as well, and comes in as my QB4.

2) D.K. Metcalf, WR Ole Miss

When looking at any draft prospect, it’s important to consider the range of outcomes. Floor and ceiling. But one aspect of this exploration that I think gets overlooked too often is also considering the likelihood of the prospect hitting his floor and ceiling. This is where I am low on Metcalf.

It’s undeniable that Metcalf, due to his truly rare physical talent, has the highest ceiling in this year’s draft class. But where I get tripped up is NOT in whether his ceiling is worth the risk of his floor… it’s the fact that I think it’s far more likely (due to his being relatively raw, having a very limited route tree, average production in college, and injury history) that he ends up with a career closer to his floor than to his ceiling.

I think of it this way. Let’s say Metcalf’s ceiling is a 10 and A.J. Brown’s ceiling is an 8. Metcalf has the better ceiling, right? Not necessarily. If I think Brown has an 75% chance of hitting his ceiling, whereas I think Metcalf has only a 40% chance of hitting his, then their “ceiling RATING” (made up term) would be 4 for Metcalf and 6 for Brown. I would like Brown’s ceiling better in that instance, even though his ceiling is lower than Metcalf’s, because I think he has a much better chance of actually hitting it.

In my WR Rankings (written pre-combine) I had Metcalf listed as my WR12. I was definitely a little too low on him there, but even post-combine, I think Metcalf ends up somewhere around WR7 or WR8 for me, rather than the WR1 most have him pegged as.

3) Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi State

Montez Sweat is a very difficult player to be low on, because he is the ultimate prospect on paper. He’s had exceptional production the past two years since he moved to Mississippi State. He showed out at Senior Bowl practices. Then he gets to the combine and tests amazingly well, coming in at the 97th percentile of NFL athletes according to 3sigmaathlete. So what gives? Why is he here on my list?

This is the one I am most worried that I will be wrong on, because it has everything to do with the eye test and my feelings on his play style. Something just doesn’t look like it will translate. He seems to win exclusively with speed, rather than with a mix of speed, strength, bend, hand usage, etc. In college, against less refined Tackles, it worked fairly often. In the pros, I can see him running himself out of a lot of plays because he doesn’t have that bend, doesn’t have that counter move, doesn’t show the strength to bull rush, and doesn’t mix his moves up.

A lot of analysts like it when a player has one special trait to point to. I don’t especially like it, because opposing coordinators can point to that exact same trait and scheme around it. Counters can be taught, so there’s a great chance I’m wrong about Sweat… but given his time at Michigan State, rumors about his love for the game, and lack of a well-rounded pass rush plan, I’m scared of betting on him in the top-10, where he is regularly being mocked.

4) Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

I look at Josh Jacobs, and I don’t see anything resembling a first round running back. I see a RB who could be pretty good at grinding out that tough yardage, being a presence in the passing game, being a good ball player. But you don’t draft those kinds of RBs in the first. You draft Zeke and Saquon and McCaffrey in the first. Guys that run that offense.

I came very close to having Jacobs as my RB3 in my RB Rankings list (wisely created after the combine, but still before his Pro Day, I believe) where I comped him to Reshard Mendenhall. I think Jacobs’ value is being artificially inflated by the weak RB class, but if there is any position where having an above average starter isn’t totally necessary, where picking up a free agent off the street is a fine solution, it’s RB. He’ll be a fine player, but let’s keep “fine” RBs out of the first round.

5) Johnathan Abram, S Mississippi State

This one is less about Abram the enforcer and much more about the role of an enforcer in today’s pro game. With the way the league is changing, focusing much more on player safety than on highlight reel hits like they did in the past, defensive backs are struggling to adhere to the ever changing rules of where and when you can hit a defenseless player, and what constitutes as defenseless.

It’s a difficult balancing act for even the most passive defensive backs. And folks, Johnathan Abram is anything but passive. Or restrained. He is an old school enforcer. The kind who strikes fear into anyone who dares to cross the middle. He even forced a scrimmage to end early, because he put too brutal a hit on his own player.

Let that sink in for a second. It was a scrimmage. Against his own teammate. And even then, he couldn’t help himself. He had to knock the dude out.

What happens when he is in a real game, and he’s playing for his salary?

I don’t believe Abram will be able to restrain himself. He will be called for a lot of penalties, and could potentially miss games due to suspension. More importantly for my evaluation of him as a prospect though… take away his role as enforcer if he is able to rein it in, and what are you left with? I don’t think he is good enough in coverage, so what would really end up happening is he would be forced to play up at the LOS more, like an undersized LBer.

Being a huge fan of Kam, of course I know how fun it is to root for guys like Abram, but the game is changing, and I think the role of Big Hitting Strong Safety is going to continue to disappear unless you also have good coverage skills. The game has passed him by.

*BONUS* Noah Fant, TE Iowa

Here’s a little bonus one, that I don’t want to get too far into, because it’s based more on rumors and assumptions than his actual play on the field. I lot of people say Iowa was “wrong” for leaving Fant, considered by many to be the best TE in the nation, on the bench in crucial game situations. I believe his coaches probably know more about Fant than we do. I trust they they would play the guys who give them the best chance to win, and those instances, it was not Fant. I heard the rumors about his inability (unwillingness?) to learn the playbook and to line up in the right spots/run the correct routes.

In such a deep, talented, athletic TE class, taking a risk on a player with average college production and questions about his hands, route running, blocking, and ability to grasp a playbook, I think he is going to be the big surprise player who gets passed over entirely in the first round of the NFL Draft.