Predict-Ability Week One Breakdown

In the immortal words of Shang Tsung, or rather the Mortal (Kombat) words, “It has begun!”. The NFL season is officially upon us and week one started off with a bang Thursday night, both in fantasy and reality. Kareem Hunt posted a historic performance that broke every yardage record previously set by a running back in their rookie debut. His performance helped lead the Chiefs to a shocking upset over the Patriots, dashing any hopes they might have had of an undefeated season. That one game produced not only the top scoring running back for the week in Kareem Hunt but also the top scoring Quarterback and a top 3 Wide Reciever. Throughout the season this article will serve as a tool to track both elite fantasy performances and players individual consistency. Through this data, I will make observations on what I see both from specific players and from situations that correlate to elite fantasy production. If you are new to the piece, an evaluation of the 2016 season (the basis for this becoming a weekly feature) can be found here. Ideally, as the season progresses, this data will allow for some patterns to emerge that’ll help predict future elite performances based on a players consistency, upside, and weekly match up.

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Scoring: Passing – 4 points per TD, -2 points per Interception, 20 yards per point, Rushing – 6 points per TD, 10 yards per point, -2 points per fumble lost, Receiving – 6 points per TD, 1 point per reception, 10 yards per point

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Observations

[the_ad id=”72106″]The late-round quarterback: At the quarterback position, week one truly felt like the week of the late-round quarterback. All three of the weeks top performers and five of the top six were being drafted outside the top 12 in fantasy drafts this summer. Nearly half of the 13 quarterbacks that finished with a top 12 performance in week one (13 included because of a tie for 12th) were drafted outside of the top 18 at the position.

To the victor go the spoils: Over the 15 games played this past week the quarterbacks on the winning side of those games finished in the top 12 two-thirds of the time. 10 of the 13 quarterbacks that posted fantasy points at the top of the position this past week secured a win for their respective franchises. Being able to predict team victories could be a useful tool in selecting match up plays at the quarterback position. However, based on Vegas odds only seven of the ten victories by top 12 quarterbacks would have been identified.

The value of rushing: Four quarterbacks scored rushing touchdowns this past week. Only one of those four, Josh McCown, failed to finish among the top 12 of the position and even with his abysmal performance that rushing touchdown buoyed his fantasy production. Marcus Mariota, Trevor Siemian, Tyrod Taylor, DeShone Kizer, Dak Prescott, and even Aaron Rodgers all would have failed to produce a top 12 performance if it wasn’t for the boost gained through their rushing production.

Running Backs

Running Back Observations

What a difference a catch makes: The impact that receptions have on running backs in PPR leagues should not go overlooked. Of the 13 running backs who posted a top 12 fantasy performance (13 included because of a tie for 12th), eight of those backs had four or more receptions. Ty Montgomery had the lowest volume of his production come in the receiving game among backs with four or more receptions and still had 40% of his overall production come in the passing game. Nearly half, 12 of the top 24 (25 included because of a tie for 24th) accumulated over 50% of their production solely in the passing game!

The importance of touchdowns: Only three running backs were able to finish inside the top 12 without scoring a touchdown. Two of those running backs are known for their usage and elite status when on the field but the third, Dalvin Cook, is an exciting rookie whose usage in week one puts him in a great position to continue to produce in similar game scripts moving forward. Of the 25 running backs listed above, only nine were able to post a top 24 performance without scoring a touchdown. Of those nine, only Dalvin Cook (10th) and Lamar Miller (23rd) were able to post a top 24 performance without a touchdown or five receptions.

Wide Receivers

Wide Receiver Observations

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Stacking is not just for Daily Fantasy: The concept of stacking players on the same team is a strategy that has gained a lot of popularity as almost a must in daily fantasy contests and with good reason. Half of the top 12 and 10 of the top 24 receivers from this past week had a teammate who also produced a top 24 performance. The Vikings and Lions stacks shockingly ended up producing four of the top 6 receivers this past week!

Volume is everything: Only 12 wide receivers received double-digit targets in week one. Of those 12 receivers; 10 posted a top 24 performance, six posted a top 12 performance, and three posted a top 6 performance. The only two wide receivers to finish outside the top 24 while receiving 10 or more targets were AJ Green and Terrelle Pryor. Not a single wide receiver finished inside the top 12 with less than six targets and 10 of the top 12 had eight targets or greater.

Tight Ends

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Tight End Observations

The bar is set low: To be a top 12 tight end last week all that was required was surpassing 8.5 fantasy points. To put that into perspective, 34 running backs and 46 wide receivers met or exceeded that same threshold. This implies that the strategy of starting a tight end in the flex or when starting a tight end is not required is going to almost always be a risky decision with low upside.

Where have all the elite tight ends gone?: Only five of the 13 tight ends that posted a top 12 performance (13 included because of a tie for 12th) were being drafted in the top 12 of fantasy drafts. The same number of tight ends finished the top 12 last week while being drafted outside the top 20 or going undrafted in the majority of fantasy leagues. This position was identified as the most volatile in Fantasy Football Predict-Ability: Pairing Consistency with Upside and this held true to form in week one.