Blog Post

AEIdeas

Note: This interactive map should be visible using Internet Explorer, Chrome and Safari, but may not be compatible with Firefox. You can also view the map here.



The interactive map (created with assistance from AEI’s graphic design director Olivier Ballou) and table above show the number of US states during each two year period from 1976 to 2016 that had a single party controlling both the state legislature and the governor’s office following the fall elections in each year, based on data from the National Conference of State Legislatures and other sources (you can also view the map here).

Note: Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature so it’s not included in the analysis.

A few interesting observations:

1. The current political control at the state level by Republicans (24 states vs. 6 states for Democrats) is both the largest number of red states back to 1978 and the largest advantage the Republicans have ever had (4-to-1 states). And of course the Republicans now also control the office of the president.

2. In contrast, the Republicans never controlled more than 5 states in the years between 1976 to 1990, and they only controlled three states in 1980-1982 (Indiana, South Dakota and Vermont), 1988-1990 (New Hampshire, South Dakota and Utah) and 1990-1992 (Arizona, New Hampshire and Utah). It’s also interesting to note that there were only either 3 or 4 red states during Reagan’s entire presidency.

3. During the 1978-2016 period, Democrats have controlled a minimum of 6 states in only two bi-annual periods: 2000-2002 and now in 2016.

4. The Democrats controlled half (25) of the US states in 1976, which is the greatest control of state political power for either party during this period.

5. From the 1978 outcome (25 blue states and 4 red states), the results have almost completely reversed this year (24 red states and 6 blue states).

Bottom Line: These results and political trends seem really interesting, and the 2016 results are unprecedented in terms of Republican political control of state legislatures, governorships, and the president’s office over the last 40 years, and seem to run contrary to the general narrative that the United States is becoming more and more liberal, and more Democratic-leaning over time?!

Comments welcome!