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I have no doubt Trudeau would prefer to put it off even longer than he has

Hence the curious unspoken subtext of the Burnaby South race, with Liberals more or less openly rooting for him to win — and New Democrats hardly less publicly hoping he loses.

Were he to be defeated, that is, in his first encounter with the voters, the conventional wisdom is he would be forced to resign as leader. Admittedly, all previous experience would suggest this was unwise, so late in the electoral cycle and with no obvious replacement in the wings. His critics in the party will have reasoned, however, that they are unlikely to do worse, no matter who it is.

On the other hand, were he to win in Burnaby South he would probably have to stay on. Unhappily for Liberal hopes, that looks iffy. The NDP won the riding by a little over one percentage point in 2015. A November poll of the riding by Mainstreet Research had the NDP squarely in third. Singh himself appears to have little name recognition in the riding, 3,300 kilometres from his home in Brampton, Ont.

The furious demands from New Democrats in recent months that the prime minister call the byelection forthwith might therefore be something less than the robust show of support for the leader they would otherwise appear — just as the prime minister’s obvious stalling until now may have other explanations than the usual.

Photo by Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press/File

Indeed, I have no doubt he would prefer to put it off even longer than he has, and would have, but for the unpleasant odour of cynicism that had begun to attach itself to the decision. Had he taken the full six months the law allows him, pushing the byelection into April or even May, the NDP would have been left in a bind whatever the result, with too little time to replace Singh even if he were to lose.