Winning hearts and minds on Twitter – where does each party stand in each province for the 2015 Canadian Election?

1. A quick look at the distribution of the seats between provinces and understanding the key battlegrounds

Ontario 121 35.80% BC 42 12.43% Alberta 34 10.06% Quebec 78 23.08% Manitoba 14 4.14% Saskatchewan 14 4.14% Nova Scotia 11 3.25% New Brunswick 10 2.96% Newfoundland 7 2.07% PEI 4 1.18% Territories 3 0.89% House of Commons 338

Source: wikipedia

The provinces of Ontario, BC, Alberta and Quebec, represent a total of 81% of the seats in the House.

The prairie provinces represent 8.3% of the seats

The maritime provinces represent 9.5% of the seats

The territories do not have political parties and are governed under the consensus government system

2. Defining the population of Canadians who are politically active on Twitter

We defined the population of interest as the total number of Canadians who at least follow one of the major political candidates

Population of Canadians who follow the 4 main canadidates Canada 1030924 Ontario 431893 BC 125151 Alberta 117039 Quebec 119955 Manitoba 27396 Saskatchewan 23917 Nova Scotia 33184 New Brunswick 17926 Newfoundland 11640 PEI 5206 Territories 3464

Source: Tweepsmap



3. A closer look at the fight to win over voters on Twitter in each key provinces

Interactive maps of Candidates’ individual followers data: (toggle between country, province and city level)

Thomas Mulcair | Justin Trudeau | Stephen Harper | Elizabeth May

Chart 2: Provincial share of Twitter followers by each candidate Thomas Mulclair Stephen Harper Justin Trudeau Elizabeth May Ontario 13.43% 69.74% 60.02% 14.05% BC 14.54% 59.19% 57.72% 23.74% Alberta 10.77% 80.76% 45.86% 11.45% Quebec 24.76% 52.77% 75.21% 10.21% Manitoba 13.57% 69.43% 59.45% 13.73% Saskatchewan 14.25% 75.16% 51.15% 12.01% Nova Scotia 13.77% 53.05% 71.75% 18.39% New Brunswick 15.48% 60.52% 67.91% 15.29% Newfoundland 16.22% 57.63% 76.21% 11.74% PEI 16.27% 53.05% 74.38% 16.62% Territories 20.35% 65.50% 66.14% 23.21% Date: September 2nd, 2015

Source: Tweepsmap

Ontario: Harper leading by a large margin; Green Party slightly ahead of NDP

Stephen Harper leads by a significant margin of 9% ahead of Justin Trudeau in 2nd place. Notably, the Green Party candidate Elizabeth May (14.05%) is ahead of the NDP (13.43%) by a slight margin

British Columbia: Conservatives lead by a small margin

Stephen Harper leads by a small margin ahead of Justin Trudeau

Alberta, Manitoba: Conservatives hold tight to stronghold

Little surprise here as Stephen Harper almost doubles the share of followers of Justin Trudeau in Alberta

In Manitoba, the lead is smaller for Harper (69.4%) vs 59.45% for the Liberals

Quebec: Liberals ahead by wide margin

Justin Trudeau (75.2%) is ahead of the 2nd place Stephen Harper by a wide margin (52.77%)

Maritime provinces: Liberals ahead in all provinces

The liberals have a lead in share in each single one of the maritime provinces by a sizeable margin

Weekly change shows NDP, Liberals gaining grounds on Conservatives in key provinces in September

Ontario: NDP gaining followers ~3 times as fast as Conservatives; Liberals gaining followers 76% faster than Conservatives

BC, Alberta: NDP gaining followers ~2 times as fast as Conservatives; Liberals gaining followers 38% faster than Conservatives

Weekly change % – September 2 – September 9th Thomas Mulcair Stephen Harper Justin Trudeau From Canada 1.79% 0.58% 0.90% Ontario 2.19% 0.55% 0.98% BC 1.91% 0.66% 0.91% Alberta 1.97% 0.62% 0.96% Quebec 0.84% 0.59% 0.60% Manitoba 1.43% 0.62% 0.83% Saskatchewan 2.49% 0.81% 1.23% Nova Scotia 1.55% 0.56% 0.76% New Brunswick 1.87% 0.60% 1.04% Newfoundland 2.33% 0.42% 0.97% PEI 2.01% 0.65% 0.83% Territories 2.27% 0.62% 0.92%

NDP Weekly Change

ThomasMulcair NDP Week of 2015-09-02 2015-09-09 Weekly growth% Canada 150135 152818 1.79% Ontario 58009 59282 2.19% BC 18194 18541 1.91% Alberta 12606 12854 1.97% Quebec 29698 29947 0.84% Manitoba 3719 3772 1.43% Saskatchewan 3409 3494 2.49% Nova Scotia 4569 4640 1.55% New Brunswick 2775 2827 1.87% Newfoundland 1888 1932 2.33% PEI 847 864 2.01% Territories 705 721 2.27%

Conservatives Weekly Change

PMHarper Conservatives Week of 2015-09-02 2015-09-09 Weekly growth% From Canada 689992 693998 0.58% Ontario 301203 302869 0.55% BC 74076 74568 0.66% Alberta 94517 95103 0.62% Quebec 63300 63676 0.59% Manitoba 19020 19138 0.62% Saskatchewan 17975 18121 0.81% Nova Scotia 17605 17704 0.56% New Brunswick 10849 10914 0.60% Newfoundland 6708 6736 0.42% PEI 2762 2780 0.65% Territories 2269 2283 0.62%

Liberals Weekly Changes