Australia is lagging behind other countries on tackling climate change after signing the historic Paris Agreement last year, a new report shows.

The Climate Council’s new report, “Towards Morocco: tracking global climate progress since Paris,” questions Australia’s ability to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target.

It says Australia is likely to face serious pressure next week when world leaders meet in Marrakesh, Morocco, for the first time since the landmark Paris agreement was signed.

Eighty-seven countries have ratified the Paris agreement, including 10 of the largest polluters. These countries cover more than 55% of global emissions. The Paris agreement will come into force on 4 November.

The world’s top three emitters of carbon dioxide – China (27%), the US (15%) and India (7%) – have ratified the agreement.

Australia has not yet ratified the agreement.

Prof Will Steffen, a climate change expert and researcher at the Australian National University, told Guardian Australia it was “virtually certain” that 2016 would be the hottest year on record.

“I think Australia will face quite a bit of pressure at the meeting, because when you look at the targets we made in Paris, they’re weak compared to other countries in the G20,” he said.

“And even with those weak targets, we’re not on track to meet them. So I think there’s going to be some very direct questioning of Australia about its effort, about what its plans are and what policy instruments it plans to use in coming years to significantly reduce emissions.”

The Climate Council report says Australia’s emissions reduction target of 26% to 28% by 2030 (on 2005 levels) relies on the introduction of energy productivity and vehicle efficiency measures, which the federal government has yet to bring into force.

“The most recent update of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions shows our emissions are rising,” the report says.

“Countries including China and the United States have put more than 30 questions to the federal government, asking for detail about how Australia will meet its 2030 emissions reduction target and raising concerns about a lack of transparency over how the government calculates and reports emissions.”

A year ago in Paris, at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), world leaders agreed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels.

The agreement was signed by 197 countries, including Australia.

But the Climate Council says if Australia is to fairly contribute to staying below the 2C target, a “more rapid downward trend in emissions from all sectors of the economy is required, with much stronger action to reduce our emissions.”

There has been widespread expert criticism of the government’s Direct Action climate policy. Experts argue the framework is not sufficient to deliver the emissions reductions Australia signed on to in Paris.

There has also been a change of political emphasis in the Turnbull government over renewable energy.

Greg Hunt, the then federal environment minister, at the Paris conference, gave state governments clear encouragement to develop their own renewable energy schemes. “I have encouraged the states that if they want to do something extra, [they should] apply reverse auctions to the renewable energy target (RET) in the way the Australian Capital Territory has done,” Hunt said last December in Paris.

But since the election, the Turnbull government has been sharply critical of state-based renewable energy targets that will help Australia meet its Paris commitments.

State governments argue the commonwealth will not be able to meet the emissions reduction targets agreed in Paris without the state-based RET schemes.

Correspondence from a senior federal official to the energy regulators after an energy council meeting in August seen by Guardian Australia underscores that point, suggesting the state-based schemes will deliver just under 40% of renewables in the national electricity market by 2030.

The Coalition has agreed to review the Direct Action climate policy in 2017, but the government has played down expectations that review will lead to a significant strengthening of the current policy framework, despite the widespread criticism of the current regime.

The South Australian government has signalled it wants to build broad support across the states for a form of carbon trading to apply to the electricity sector.