To the Minister for Finance

Notification of Determination

Section 49 Certificate – Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918

I, Tom Rogers, Electoral Commissioner, hereby certify that:

Pursuant to section 46 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act), I have this day ascertained the number of the people of the Commonwealth, States and Territories, and those numbers are as follows:

The Commonwealth 23,729,561 The States New South Wales 7,797,791 Victoria 6,244,227 Queensland 4,883,739 Western Australia 2,567,788 South Australia 1,716,966 Tasmania 519,050 The Territories Australian Capital Territory 419,256 Northern Territory 247,512 Norfolk Island 1,756 The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands 550 The Territory of Christmas Island 1,914 Australian Antarctic Territory 57 Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands 0 Coral Sea Islands Territory 3 Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands 0

Pursuant to section 48 of the Electoral Act, I have this day determined the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election to be as follows:

State/Territory Number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the State or Territory The States New South Wales 47 Victoria 38 Queensland 30 Western Australia 16 South Australia 10 Tasmania 5 The Territories Australian Capital Territory 3 Northern Territory 2 Australian Antarctic Territory 0 Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands 0 Coral Sea Islands Territory 0 Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands 0 Total 151





As required by section 49 of the Electoral Act, the following tables provide details of the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, calculations involved in arriving at those adjusted numbers, and the calculations involved in the making of the determination of the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election.

Table 1: Number of the people of the States and Territories as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

State/Territory Population supplied by the Australian Statistician Adjustment Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner New South Wales 7,797,791 0 7,797,791 Victoria 6,244,227 0 6,244,227 Queensland 4,883,739 0 4,883,739 Western Australia 2,567,788 0 2,567,788 South Australia 1,716,966 0 1,716,966 Tasmania 519,050 0 519,050 Australian Capital Territory (excluding Jervis Bay Territory) 406,403 403 406,806 Northern Territory 245,048 0 245,048 Norfolk Island 1,756 0 1,756 Jervis Bay Territory 403 0 403 The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands 550 0 550 The Territory of Christmas Island 1,914 0 1,914 Australian Antarctic Territory 57 0 57 Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands 0 0 0 Coral Sea Islands Territory 3 0 3 Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands 0 0 0

Note: 1) Pursuant to section 38A of the Electoral Act, the Australian Capital Territory includes the Jervis Bay Territory.





To determine the number of members of the House of Representatives each state and territory is entitled to, the Electoral Commissioner is required to calculate the population quota using the following formula:

Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner Twice the number of senators for the States

Table 2: Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

State Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner New South Wales 7,797,791 Victoria 6,244,227 Queensland 4,883,739 Western Australia 2,567,788 South Australia 1,716,966 Tasmania 519,050 The Commonwealth 23,729,561

Note: 1) Pursuant to section 45 of the Electoral Act, the number of the people of the Commonwealth does not include the people of the Territories.

2) Population as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 2.

Table 3: Population quota

Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 23,729,561 Twice the number of senators for the States (2 x (12 x 6)) 144 Population quota 164,788.61806





Table 4: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each State is entitled to

State/Territory Number of people of the State ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner Population quota Number of members of the House of Representatives Number of members of the House of Representatives – application of rounding rule New South Wales 7,797,791 164,788.61806 47.31996 47 Victoria 6,244,227 164,788.61806 37.89234 38 Queensland 4,883,739 164,788.61806 29.63639 30 Western Australia 2,567,788 164,788.61806 15.58231 16 South Australia 1,716,966 164,788.61806 10.41920 10 Tasmania 519,050 164,788.61806 3.14979 5

Note: 1) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

2) Section 24 of the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act specifies the requirements for the composition of the House of Representatives, requiring that ‘… five members at least shall be chosen in each Original State’. Original States are defined in section 6 as meaning ‘… such States are parts of the Commonwealth at its establishment’. As Tasmania is an Original State, it is guaranteed a minimum of five members of the House of Representatives.





Table 5: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each Territory is entitled to

State/Territory Number of people of the Territory ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner Population quota Number of members of the House of Representatives Number of members of the House of Representatives – application of rounding rule Australian Capital Territory 406,806 164,788.61806 2.46865 2 Northern Territory 245,048 164,788.61806 1.48704 1 Norfolk Island 1,756 164,788.61806 0.01066 0 The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands 550 164,788.61806 0.00334 0 The Territory of Christmas Island 1,914 164,788.61806 0.01161 0 Australian Antarctic Territory 57 164,788.61806 0.00035 0 Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands 0 164,788.61806 0.00000 0 Coral Sea Islands Territory 3 164,788.61806 0.00002 0 Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands 0 164,788.61806 0.00000 0

Note: 1) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, as Norfolk Island is not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the population is added to the population of the Australian Capital Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled is recalculated. See Table 6.

2) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, as the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island are not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the populations of both are added to the population of the Northern Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled is recalculated. See Tables 10 and 11.

3) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.





Table 6: Adjustments to the population of the Australian Capital Territory

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 406,806 Number of the people of Norfolk Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 1,756 Adjusted population of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 408,562

Note: 1) Number of people of the Australian Capital Territory and Norfolk Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 1.

Table 7: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 408,562 Population quota 164,788.61806 Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory 2.47931 Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory – application of rounding rule 2

Note: 1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) Where the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled is equal to a whole number (known as the ‘relevant whole number’) and a remainder that is less than or equal to one-half of the population quota, sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act specifies an additional calculation be performed which, under specified circumstances, will result in the ascertained population being altered which may result in the entitlement increasing. The ascertained population is altered if the following holds true:

(Population quota x Relevant whole number and one-half) – (Ascertained population of the Australian Capital Territory) ≤ Twice the standard error of the Australian Statistician’s estimate of the net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory at the last Census





Table 8: Calculations to determine whether sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act applies to the Australian Capital Territory

Relevant whole number 2 Relevant whole number + 0.5 2.5 Population quota 164,788.61806 Number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas 411,971.54514 Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 408,562 Difference between the number of people required to achieve 2.5 quotas and the ascertained population 3,410 Twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory 10,694 Is the difference less than twice the standard error? Yes Does sub-section 48(2E) of the Electoral Act apply to the Australian Capital Territory? Yes

Note: 1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) In accordance with sub-section 48(2F) of the Electoral Act, the ascertained population of the Australian Capital Territory is taken to never have been made. The number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory is increased by a number equal to twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory.

Table 9: Adjustment to the population of the Australian Capital Territory and recalculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 408,562 Twice the standard error of the estimated net undercount for the Australian Capital Territory 10,694 Adjusted population of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 419,256 Population quota 164,788.61806 Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory 2.54420 Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory – application of rounding rule 3

Note: 1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

Table 10: Adjustments to the population of the Northern Territory

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 245,048 Number of the people of the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 550 Number of the people of the Territory of Christmas Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 1,914 Adjusted population of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 247,512

Note: 1) The number of people of the Northern Territory, the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 5.

Table 11: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled to

Number of the people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner 247,512 Population quota 164,788.61806 Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Northern Territory 1.50200 Number of members of the House of Representatives for the Northern Territory – application of rounding rule 2

Note: 1) The number of people of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 10.





Table 12: Populations supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act

The States New South Wales 7,797,791 Victoria 6,244,227 Queensland 4,883,739 Western Australia 2,567,788 South Australia 1,716,966 Tasmania 519,050 The Territories Australian Capital Territory (excluding Jervis Bay Territory) 406,403 Northern Territory 245,048 Norfolk Island 1,756 The Jervis Bay Territory 403 The Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands 550 The Territory of Christmas Island 1,914 Australian Antarctic Territory 57 Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands 0 Coral Sea Islands Territory 3 Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands 0





Table 13: Other information relating to the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act

Information Australian Capital Territory Northern Territory Australian Statistician’s estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census -4,132 12,020 Standard error of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census 5,347 3,720 Two standard errors of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census 6,348 19,312 Upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census -14,612 4,729 Lower limit of the 95% confidence interval of the estimate of the net undercount for the Territory at the 2016 Census 10,694 7,441

Note: 1) The Australian Statistician advised the information presented above, in respect of the 2016 Census of Population and housing, was published on 27 June 2017 in the ABS publication Census of Population and Housing – Details of Overcount and Undercount (ABS cat. no. 2940.0).

2) For the estimate of the net undercount, a negative number indicates a net overcount.

3) The two standard errors was calculated by using the unrounded standard error, as published, then rounded.

SIGNED

Tom Rogers

Electoral Commissioner

31 August 2017