But Jennifer Duffy, who has been handicapping races for the nonpartisan “Cook Political Report” since the 1990s, is frankly skeptical. She tells me, “Some strategists on both sides think they’re seeing some new Republican intensity. But they all need for the noise to calm down a little bit before determining whether this is real or just a blip.” The best Republican scenario, which Duffy doesn’t necessarily buy, is that Kavanaugh-driven conservatives could narrow the enthusiasm gap because “they have more growing room. How much growing room is there among [Democratic-leaning] women? They’re already angry.”

Growing room, courtesy of Kavanaugh. That’s essentially the buzz among Trump-allied Republicans. It may be a vain hope, but perhaps their relentless messaging can make it real. Josh Holmes, an ex-aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, tweeted his hope: “It’s impossible to overstate how important the Kavanaugh hearings have been to [conservative] voters. Like dropping a grenade into the electorate.” Cesar Conda, an ex–chief of staff to Senator Marco Rubio, told NBC News, “The GOP base will be energized to stop the Democrats from taking over Congress.” Indeed, the latest Pew Research Center poll says that 59 percent of Republicans now describe themselves as “more enthusiastic than usual” about midterm voting—a higher share than in the red waves of 2010 and 2014.

And Trump apparently believes that tripling down for Kavanaugh, at the expense of his most visible accuser, is shrewd midterm politics. His extended riff last night during a rally in Mississippi, where he mocked and mimicked Ford (“‘I don’t know. I don’t know.’ ‘Upstairs? Downstairs? Where was it?’ ‘I don’t know. But I had one beer. That’s the only thing I remember … I don’t remember, I don’t remember’”) prompted audience laughter, eerily mirroring Ford’s memory of “uproarious laughter” at her expense.

Perhaps his behavior will further stoke grassroots Republican anger, but it’s just as likely that it will boomerang to the detriment of Republican candidates. The GOP’s strategy these past two weeks has been to restrain Trump’s impulses and treat Ford—and, by extension, all sexual-assault victims—with at least a modicum of respect. Women are driving the threat of a blue wave, and Republicans would prefer not to alienate more of them.

But Trump blew up that strategy last night, and thus risked stoking even more opposition ire. Nor did he help the cause on Monday, when he personally insulted a female ABC News reporter (“I know you’re not thinking. You never do”). The same Pew poll that reports robust Republican interest says that Democratic enthusiasm is even higher—67 percent, nearly double the blue party’s enthusiasm share in 2010 and 2014. Six in 10 midterm voters say their decision will be an expression of opposition or support for Trump; the poll says that opposition voters lead supportive voters by a margin of 14 points.