The race for line honours is shaping up as the closest contest in 74 editions of the Sydney to Hobart, with the prospect of a thrilling match race between the four fastest yachts on the River Derwent becoming increasingly likely.

After 24 hours of racing the top four yachts Comanche, Black Jack, InfoTrack and Wild Oats XI remained within four nautical miles of the each other as they passed Flinders Island.

Eight-time line honours champion Wild Oats XI was eyeballing last year’s winner Comanche in the early hours of the first morning, and was also keeping a close visual on Black Jack.

“This is the closest race we’ve been in. We’ve been in close races with Comanche before, but never been in such a close race with all four of us,” said Wild Oats XI sailor Chris Links.

Defending champion Comanche, InfoTrack and Black Jack are all sailing close to the rhumb line (the most direct line to Hobart) with Wild Oats XI making a tactical gamble to sail further offshore. Current weather modelling is suggesting all four would rope up in Tasmania within an hour of each other after 628 nautical miles of racing.

But many are expecting a much closer finish, which is drawing comparisons to the 1981 edition of the race, which was won by a margin of just 7 seconds.

Supermaxis Comanche and InfoTrack at the start of the race. Photograph: Andrea Francolini

Andrea Francolini who has photographed 18 editions of the blue water classic is salivating at the prospect of an unprecedented four supermaxis dueling it out towards the finishing buoy at Constitution Dock.

“Imagine getting two or three of the 100 footers passing the organ pipes still match racing. In my world that would be an amazing picture to have and an amazing finish because they will be match racing up the river,” said the award-winning photographer, who is in Hobart awaiting the arrival of this year’s champion.

InfoTrack and Comanche are best placed to capitalise on a building breeze while the lighter, thinner shapes of Wild Oats XI and Black Jack leave them poised to seize the advantage in lighter winds – with Black Jack’s keel design giving them the upper hand in anything under six knots of wind.

Given the night-time breeze often eases on the east cost of Tasmania, leaving the River Derwent more like a parking lot than a race track, the next few hours of the race will be crucial as InfoTrack and Comanche will need to build in more of a buffer, or risk being overhauled by the lighter boats in the lighter breeze.

The bulkiest of the giant 100-footers, Comanche has made several adjustments for such a light wind scenario. Her owner Jim Cooney has automated the winch system, shedding five hundred kilograms of weight by removing the need for additional crew to power the sails in a bid to perform more evenly in light winds, but despite the changes it is still likely Comanche will suffer the most in easing conditions given her increased drag caused by her superior surface area relative to the other supermaxis.

It isn’t just the race for line-honours that is close, the mid-fleet is also condensed making for a salivating skirmish. While it remains too close to call the boat sitting in 51st place out of a remaining fleet of 82, Midnight Rambler, was leading on handicap at time of writing.

“It is really the closest ever, four boats within four miles and then the rest of the fleet – they are all compact. When they start arriving the dock is going to fill up very quickly compared to other years when they just drip in little by little,” said Francolini who was anticipating having a photograph of the winning yacht in the early hours of Friday morning – well off the race record pace set by Comanche last year.