Take this with a grain of salt, but Robert-Falcon Ouellette is telling anyone who will listen that he’s winning the electoral war in Winnipeg Centre.

The Liberal candidate, who is trying to knock off Pat Martin, released a poll commissioned by his campaign Tuesday that shows him with a nine-point lead — 35%-26% — over the longtime NDP incumbent. Tory candidate Allie Szarkiewich and Don Woodstock of the Greens are well back, with 20% still undecided.

Ouellette’s camp said the margin of error for poll, conducted Oct. 7-11, is 5%, 19 times out of 20.

Of course, candidates predicting electoral success isn’t entirely new, either generally or with Ouellette specifically, as the former mayoral candidate touted a dead heat between he and Martin just last month. And there’s a red flag in this case to consider, too, as Ouellette’s campaign didn’t disclose the firm that conducted the interactive voice response firm, only referring to it as an “independent company” in a press release.

Having said that, working in support of Ouellette’s claims of a close race are the large number of campaign signs his team has posted in the riding, surging Liberal support across the country at a time when the NDP brand is struggling in Manitoba, and Martin’s admission that — unlike previous races — he has had to work hard this campaign to shore up support.

The federal election takes place Monday.