According to the odds-makers at SportsLine, the Lions have a 27.1% chance to make the postseason in 2019. After a disappointing first season under Matt Patricia which saw the Lions go 6-10, I think that 27.1% is fair. However, this number fails to observe what the Lions have done this offseason to create a successful playoff formula.

The Man in Charge

AP Photo/Jose Juarez

Matt Patricia has been doing his best Bill Belichick impression this offseason. Whether it’ll pan out or not is left to be seen. However, you have to love the way that the organization is trusting his vision. For several teams, the GM builds the roster, and the coach simply coaches. The Lions have obviously been working together to bring in players that Patricia knows how to work with. It can sometimes be intimidating to teams to give the head coach some of that power. The mediocrity of the entire Lions’ history should be enough to justify that risk.

A lot of his moves have clearly been Belichick-esque. He signed former Patriots Trey Flowers and Danny Amendola, but there’s more to it than that. Patricia has followed in Bill’s footsteps in cutting the fat of the team without really looking back. When six-year starter Glover Quinn was abruptly cut in February, it was exactly something that Belichick would do. Quinn became too expensive and not valuable enough beyond his name value to keep a roster spot. A similar thing was done with seven-year veteran Theo Riddick, who was just an unnecessary roadblock for sophomore Kerryon Johnson to overcome.

Patricia is bluntly cutting fan favorites and long-tenured Lions because he knows that, while those players were solid, they never helped bring the winning culture that he’s trying to create. I’m a firm believer that the faster you admit your mistakes, the faster you get to where you want to be. The Lions aren’t making any excuses.

A Developing Offense

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The biggest thing we’ve heard about the Lions offense is that they want to become more committed to running the football in 2019. They ranked 28th in yards per attempt last season, largely in part to LeGarrette Blount averaging 2.7 yards per carry on 154 attempts, which was absolutely the league-worst last season. To fill Blount’s shoes is none other than Super Bowl champion and proven winner C.J. Anderson.

Anderson is a career 4.5 yards per carry runner who notoriously gets better as the season goes on. Seven of his 10 career 100-yard games have come in week 12 or later, including the playoffs. In other words, the Lions don’t have to worry about about the budding, but young Johnson being the workhorse for an entire 16-game season. Anderson can be a reliable and potent option for them down the stretch.

In addition to their promising rushing attack, the Lions have created a new identity in their passing game. Matt Stafford got the ball out quick in 2018 without pushing it down the field too often, having the fifth-lowest average intended air yards in 2018. This lack of aggressiveness is crucial to the Lions’ success. Lack of aggressiveness equals fewer turnovers, and fewer turnovers means more wins. The stats back this up too. Stafford threw nine TDs to one interception in six wins. In the 10 losses, he hit 12 TDs and 10 picks. Essentially, risks rarely paid off for the Lions, nor did they need to.

The offense will succeed if they can find ways to draw defenses in and occasionally let Stafford take one over the top with the arm that once made him a 5,000-yard passer.

A Steady Defense

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Last year’s 10th-ranked defense only improved this offseason and will hope to be the driving force of Matt Patricia’s football team.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions were first in the league against the run this year. They have five legit run stoppers in A’Shawn Robinson, Trey Flowers, Damon Harrison, Da’Shawn Hand, and the recently acquired Mike Daniels. Those five, along with Romeo Okwaro who had 7.5 sacks last year and fourth-round pick Austin Bryant, create probably the deepest group in the NFL. Considering that the Lions were 11th in the league in sacks with only four of those seven guys on the team, I think it’s safe to say that they’ll improve in that regard.

Where the Lions need to improve is their pass defense. They were deceivingly the eighth in terms of passing yards allowed, but 28th in yards per attempt. They got solid play out of their corners, save Jalen “Teez” Tabor who’s never looked the part, but they need more consistent production from their safeties.

A big reason why Quinn was cut was because he wasn’t producing turnovers, something he was known for in his prime. Quandre Diggs had three INTs last season, but who’s going to slide in next to him and start. Right now, Miles Killebrew is listed as the starter, but keep an eye on second-year player Tracy Walker who recorded an 89.8 in limited action last season according to Pro Football Focus.

As I said, it all starts up front for Detroit. Last year, the Bears defense as a whole, looked solid, but it was largely due to a consistently disruptive pass rush. If Patricia can continue his ways of generating pressure, guys like Diggs, Jarrad Davis, and Darius Slay will have opportunities to make plays on the back end.

Will They Make It Happen?

via AP Photo/Rey Del Rio

The Lions have obvious strengths but also serious caveats. Matt Patricia is a good football coach, but he’s not Bill Belichick. This offense is improving, but they still need to prove they can create big plays. The defense is strong up front, but can they force enough takeaways to make a big impact?

These are all questions that will hamper the Lions, but I don’t believe that they all need to be answered to get the Lions into the playoffs. Detroit has the 12th-easiest schedule and will have a great chance to find their way into the playoffs if they can win some games within the division.

The ingredients are all right in front of them. That’s something that most teams can’t say. Now, it’s just a matter of if they can find the right formula. I’m just the guy who believes they will.

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