Rival campaigns acknowledge they have little hope of competing with Beto O’Rourke (above) and Sen. Bernie Sanders, the field’s fundraising pacesetters. | Chase Stevens/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP 2020 Elections Looming 2020 deadline triggers wild chase for cash ‘We have two really big online behemoths, then we have the rest,’ said one Democrat.





Democratic presidential candidates are on a white-knuckle ride to March 31, the quarterly reporting deadline that will signal who’s rolling in cash and who’s scraping just to establish viability.

All too conscious that the numbers they report will be viewed as either a show of strength or the first sign of weakness, the campaigns are furiously chasing dollars to bulk up their totals, while quietly managing expectations behind the scenes with staffers, supporters and the media.


“For candidates who got in early it will be a much more significant test than those who have only just jumped into the race in the last few weeks,” said Joel Benenson, a former top adviser to President Barack Obama and the chief strategist for Hillary Clinton in 2016. “Rightly or wrongly, the political press is going to treat the filings as the first ‘ballot.’ So, it’s important both for optics, but also as a warning light for campaigns that have performed less well than others.”

The Federal Election Commission deadline looms especially large this year. In a crowded field in which it’s difficult to draw sharp distinctions between candidates, the first campaign finance report of the election cycle promises the first quantifiable measure to assess how the nascent campaigns are faring.

Equally important, the totals will likely accelerate and harden impressions of a multitiered field, divided between those with the resources to last deep into the primary season and those whose prospects are more reliant on capturing momentum.

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Every campaign is feeling the pressure to produce.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is pumping out email after email to supporters, designed to squeeze out every last dollar. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) has stepped up her fundraising, scheduling a flurry of fundraisers in her home state of California, as well as stops in Washington, Florida and New York. Joe Biden is thought to be delaying a possible launch until after the deadline, so he doesn’t have to report a weak fundraising figure.

In preparation for the first filing period, virtually every 2020 presidential candidate saw a boost in Facebook spending last week. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who spent the most on the platform last week, spent nearly double what she had spent for the rest of 2019 combined.

Officials for several campaigns told POLITICO that internal discussions about how to message the campaign’s first major milepost have been underway for some time.

Some who expect to be outraised suggested they’ll cite other metrics pulled from their campaign finance reports to show progress — such as the expanding size of their staff operations. Others are attempting to lower expectations given the breadth of the candidate field, or are discussing strategies to help their staffs tune out the noise they expect around the March 31 date. At least one campaign is polishing its messaging efforts internally to keep morale from dropping in the event of a disappointing haul.

“People are always desperate for any metric of success,” said Robby Mook, campaign manager for Clinton’s 2016 presidential race.

Officials with rival campaigns acknowledge that they have little hope of competing with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), the field’s fundraising pacesetters at the moment.

O’Rourke raised $6.1 million in the first 24 hours after launching, a gargantuan haul that surpassed even Sanders, himself an online fundraising juggernaut. Sanders raised nearly $6 million in the first 24 hours, and $10 million total in less than one week.

“We have two really big online behemoths,” one Democratic campaign aide said, and “then we have the rest.”

Still, contenders like Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), are coming into the 2020 race with a cushion courtesy of the more than $10 million each that they are transferring from their Senate committees. Sanders had $9 million available for transfer, while Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Klobuchar had about $4 million to Harris' $1.3 million.

“For the people who are considered to be back in the pack, [March 31] is a very important thing to prove their viability,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist and presidential campaign veteran. “For the front-runners, it’s — is there any surprise? And it could be good, or bad.”

The first report is an important indicator of momentum, but it’s not the only one, said Dan Sena, a former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Sena said he sees the second quarter, in particular, as beginning to really put distance between the top earners and the rest of the field.

“I think it’s the next quarter that, if you’re able to replicate your success off of your early energy, that will begin to separate out the campaigns,” Sena said. For candidates, that means “it’s not the first $5 million, but how quickly they get to the next $5 million, that I think will begin to measure real grassroots energy.”

Most campaigns are approaching the end of the month with an eye on their rivals’ performances as well. Reporters are already being reminded that some totals will be inflated by large sums transferred from previous committees, as in the case of the senators running for president.

Warren’s performance will be especially scrutinized, according to rival campaigns. The Massachusetts senator vowed early not to take money from lobbyists or super PACs — rejecting PAC money, and challenging her opponents to follow suit and reject corporate PAC donations, which many of them have done.

For Warren, who announced mid-quarter that she also would shun fundraising through old-fashioned means like swanky dinner parties and cocktail receptions, the first filing period will show how well she did in comparison with O’Rourke and Sanders via small-dollar donations.

But it will also illustrate — after holding her last fundraiser in December — whether she continued to receive larger checks in the ranges of $500 and $1,000.

"It's all an expectations game," Carrick said.

Zach Montellaro contributed to this report.