Myth: Growth is good.



Fact: Economic growth allows the population explosion and environmental destruction.







Summary



Many people believe that economic growth is healthy. Indeed, high growth would solve many problems, like poverty, the trade deficit, the debt, etc. But it is impossible for economic growth to continue in a world of limited resources. The population explosion -- which has been created by improved science and productive technology -- is already running into declining resources in grain, seafood, meat, and fresh water. The result will be mass starvation and pitched competition for survival. The alternative is a sustained economy, which holds both the population and production levels constant.







Argument



Most Americans -- all across the political spectrum -- view a growing economy as desirable. During the 1996 presidential campaign, Bob Dole tapped into this belief with the following words:

"Bill Clinton thinks our economy can only crawl along at 2.3% growth into the next century. He's wrong. Bob Dole knows -- and you know -- that our economy can do better. It's time to stop defending the slow-growth status quo and implement a bold new agenda for change. With the Dole plan for economic growth, our economy will achieve its full potential with 3.5% -- or higher -- growth per year, putting our country back on the right track and giving every American family the chance to achieve the American dream." (1)

"My plan gives Americans tax cuts that will help our economy to grow…"

"My tax cuts will not undermine our economy. They will speed economic growth…"

"That is the right way to cut taxes -- pro-family, pro-education, pro-economic growth." (2)

"The key is productivity. If productivity growth in the United States were to recover to something like its rates of the 1950s and 1960s, practically everything would fall into place… it would make many, but not all, of the problems discussed in this book fade away." (3)

World population growth (4) Year Length of Population reached Interval --------------------------------------- 1 billion 1804 200,000 years after rise of modern humans 2 billion 1927 123 years 3 billion 1960 33 4 billion 1974 14 5 billion 1987 13 6 billion est. 1998 11 7 billion est. 2009 11 8 billion est. 2021 12 9 billion est. 2035 14 10 billion est. 2054 19 11 billion est. 2093 39

There are several dramatic ways to describe the population explosion:

At the current rate, we are adding the population of China to this planet every decade.

Essentially, we add a city of 1 million people to the earth every three and half days.

It took 200,000 years to reach the first 3 billion people, but only 40 years to reach the second 3 billion.

World production trends per person of grain, seafood and beef and mutton (1950-1993) (5) Trend per person: ------------------------------------ Growth Percent Decline Percent Foodstuff Period Growth Period Decline ----------------------------------------------------- Grain 1950-84 +40% 1984-93 -12% Seafood 1950-88 +126 1988-93 -9 Beef & Mutton 1950-72 +36 1972-93 -13

Add to this the fact that the world's water basins are generally being drained faster than the hydrolic cycle can refill them, and it's clear that expanding populations and shrinking resources are going to become the world's number one problem in the very near future.



Just how much of a problem can be seen in a famous 1994 Cornell study. (6) A team led by Dr. David Pimentel found that the world will probably be able to handle no more than 2 billion people by the year 2100. They arrived at this conclusion by considering the future "carrying capacity" of the land -- that is, the amount of available resources needed to sustain a level population. These resources primarily consist of fertile land, fresh water, fossil fuel energy and a diversity of helpful natural organisms. Changes to some of these factors are quite predictable -- for example, humans are expected to run out of fossil fuel in the next 35 years. (The Cornell team used the most optimistic figures for their calculations.) The team found that the carrying capacity at the turn of the next century would provide only 2 billion with a modest but comfortable standard of living. But, as you can see from the population chart, current population trends should reach 11 billion by then.



To avoid massive starvation and deadly competition will require a drastic change in our current habits. Dr. Pimentel notes: "Even if we adopt a zero population growth strategy tomorrow -- a little over two children per couple -- the world population will nearly double. It wouldn't stop growing for 60 years."



The alternative: a sustainable economy



Without question, humans need to curb their populations and sustain their economies. If humans don't do it, nature will, and it's a sure bet that humans will be kinder to themselves than nature would be.



What are the principles of a sustainable economy? Lester Brown, President of Worldwatch Institute, writes:

"Among the principles of sustainability are the following: Over the long term, species extinction cannot exceed species evolution; soil erosion cannot exceed soil formation; forest destruction cannot exceed forest regeneration; carbon emissions cannot exceed carbon fixation; fish catches cannot exceed the regenerative capacity of fisheries; and human births cannot exceed human deaths." (7)