Madison Square Garden is the backdrop for Conor McGregors’ attempt to make history as the first ever simultaneous UFC two divisional champion. His opponent, Eddie Alvarez meanwhile, looks to shake off the last of his critics and put an emphatic stamp on his reign as UFC lightweight champion.

This fight has all the markings of an analyst’s dream fight; both competitors have the ability to win this fight in a multitude of different ways and a TKO/KO finish for either man wouldn’t be a surprise. Firstly let’s get an overview of both fighters coming into this clash and how they size up against one another before moving into an analysis of how the bout may play out, and finally, a prediction.

In the case of the lightweight champion, Eddie Alvarez is a brilliant technically gifted wrestler and he’s earned his skills through hours and hours of hard work and persistence on the mat. Since working more closely with current head coach Mark Henry, however, we’ve also seen him culture a brutal right hand. Former UFC lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos felt the full brunt of Alvarez’s power in his last fight as the Brazilian was rocked multiple times before referee Herb Dean stepped in to call a stoppage to the bout. A man who is famed for having an ‘iron jaw’, RDA was simply no match for Alvarez’ explosive right hand which was set up again and again through excellent footwork and positioning.

We’ve seen Conor McGregor best some excellent fighters during his meteoric rise to the top yet the only elite level striker he’s had to face in Jose Aldo got memorably knocked out in the opening exchange of their bout. We’ve yet to see Conor be forced to stand and trade with an elite level striker who has the power to end fights and while it’s true that he stood and traded with Diaz for all 5 rounds in their rematch, Diaz has only accomplished four TKO victories in 30 fights with three of those coming against much lower level competition.

Alvarez’ aforementioned footwork against RDA was a brilliant example of how far he has come in terms of ‘fight IQ’ under the tutorship of acclaimed head coach Mark Henry. He would place his lead leg in between Dos Anjos’ stance and begin to shift his body weight to the right to indicate that he was circling out and as soon as RDA reacted accordingly and follow suit by shadowing his movement to cut off the cage, Alvarez would come forward with a big lead left hand to begin a forward driving combination of strikes and catch him off guard. A similar manoeuvre could be likely in the upcoming fight as it’s very likely that McGregor will look to use his vastly superior reach in order to back Alvarez up against the Octagon and pick him off at a comfortable range.

With that being said, a more favourable scenario for Alvarez could perhaps be to try and expose McGregor’s wavering cardio in later rounds and pick up where Chad Mendes left off by working him to the ground with his superb wrestling ability and grind him down from top positions. Mendes opted to do this with big heavy slicing elbows to McGregor’s face but Alvarez, however, may have better luck throwing a variation of strikes to the body and head where possible.

With Conor McGregor, it’s no secret that has an absolutely monstrous left hand that any opponent cannot take lightly with the punch in question being described by great MMA coach Firas Zahabi as “the death touch”. Over the course of his 23 fight career, he’s finished 17 out of his 20 victories via TKO/KO. Even a very robust fighter like Eddie Alvarez who has lost one fight in his career via TKO, he must be cautious of being countered by McGregor’s left-hand when coming forward.

Relying on this brute power alone, however, may not be enough to secure McGregor the victory and overestimating its capability could even prove detrimental like it was in the first Diaz bout. A more reasoned approach for McGregor would to perhaps manage the pace and tempo of the fight by backing Alvarez up against the cage and maintaining a safe distance by alternating front body kicks and long left handed jabs as we’ve seen him do previously. By dictating the pace of the fight, McGregor can not only nullify Alvarez’ offence but also patiently pick him apart and wait for an opening to come inside and unleash a finishing combination.

Whilst I honestly can see this fight going either way, I’m predicting a TKO victory early in the first few rounds in favour of Conor McGregor. I feel as if a lot of the typical McGregor smack talk has riled Alvarez up and coupled with the fact he’s fighting in front of a partisan crowd which could easily favour “The Underground King”, I think it’s likely that Alvarez becomes incensed and looks for an early finish only to be picked apart by a more attentive and focused Conor McGregor.