Today’s guest post/contest comes from Thomas McDermott, a licensed land surveyor in the State of California, a music theory instructor at Loyola Marymount University, and an NFL history enthusiast. As always, we thank him for his hard work. You can read all of his guest posts at Football Perspective at this link.

The following is a bunch of data I’ve gathered regarding home-field advantage; hopefully some of you will find it useful for analysis, or for picking winners against the spread in your pick’em games this year!

The general consensus is that the home team in a typical NFL game has an advantage of around 2.5 to 3 points, and this is right on: since 1970, the average team wins their regular season home games by 2.7 points, with a high of 4.6 in 1985 and a low of 0.8 in 2006. If we do a linear regression, we can see that HFA appears to be in decline, but only slightly compared to points per game, which is obviously increasing:

But what about specific teams? If I’m trying to predict who’s going to win a Seahawks game played in Seattle, I’d probably assume the HFA at CenturyLink Field is more than just 2.7 points. To approximate a particular team’s HFA, we can use a very simple formula:

(Home point differential – Road point differential) / 2

This gives us what is called an “observed” home field advantage.

This method has been around for a while, and although it’s not perfect (as I note below), it has the benefit of being intuitive and simple. Below is a table showing the observed HFA for each team for every season since 2002:

Year TEAM Overall Record Home Record Playoffs Overall MOV PD Home PD Away HFA 2003 SFO 7-9-0 6-2-0 2.9 16.3 -10.4 13.3 2007 DET 7-9-0 5-3-0 -6.1 5.5 -17.8 11.6 2013 NOR 11-5-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 6.9 18.4 -4.6 11.5 2009 SEA 5-11-0 4-4-0 -6.9 4.1 -17.9 11.0 2002 MIA 9-7-0 7-1-0 4.8 15.6 -6.0 10.8 2014 GNB 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost Conf 8.6 19.4 -2.1 10.8 2011 NOR 13-3-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 13.0 23.3 2.8 10.3 2008 CAR 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 5.3 15.4 -4.8 10.1 2013 CIN 11-5-0 8-0-0 Lost WC 7.8 17.6 -2.0 9.8 2003 STL 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 7.4 17.1 -2.3 9.7 2009 NWE 10-6-0 8-0-0 Lost WC 8.9 18.4 -0.6 9.5 2005 MIN 9-7-0 6-2-0 -2.4 7.1 -11.9 9.5 2006 JAX 8-8-0 6-2-0 6.1 15.5 -3.4 9.4 2003 ARI 4-12-0 4-4-0 -14.2 -4.8 -23.6 9.4 2002 KAN 8-8-0 6-2-0 4.3 13.6 -5.1 9.4 2007 HOU 8-8-0 6-2-0 -0.3 8.9 -9.5 9.2 2002 STL 7-9-0 6-2-0 -3.3 5.8 -12.4 9.1 2003 KAN 13-3-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 9.5 18.5 0.5 9.0 2011 PIT 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 6.1 15.0 -2.8 8.9 2009 BAL 9-7-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 8.1 16.9 -0.6 8.8 2003 CHI 7-9-0 6-2-0 -3.9 4.8 -12.6 8.7 2008 PHI 9-6-1 6-1-1 Lost Conf 7.9 16.5 -0.6 8.6 2005 BAL 6-10-0 6-2-0 -2.1 6.3 -10.5 8.4 2005 NYJ 4-12-0 4-4-0 -7.2 1.1 -15.5 8.3 2004 BAL 9-7-0 6-2-0 3.1 11.4 -5.3 8.3 2004 STL 8-8-0 6-2-0 Lost Div -4.6 3.8 -12.9 8.3 2010 SDG 9-7-0 6-2-0 7.4 15.6 -0.8 8.2 2012 SEA 11-5-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 10.4 18.5 2.4 8.1 2011 BUF 6-10-0 5-3-0 -3.9 4.1 -11.9 8.0 2008 ARI 9-7-0 6-2-0 Lost SB 0.1 8.0 -7.9 7.9 2010 SFO 6-10-0 5-3-0 -2.6 5.3 -10.4 7.8 2003 MIN 9-7-0 6-2-0 3.9 11.8 -3.9 7.8 2009 TEN 8-8-0 5-3-0 -3.0 4.6 -10.6 7.6 2003 SEA 10-6-0 8-0-0 Lost WC 4.8 12.4 -2.8 7.6 2012 NYG 9-7-0 6-2-0 5.3 12.8 -2.1 7.4 2010 ARI 5-11-0 4-4-0 -9.1 -1.6 -16.5 7.4 2009 MIN 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost Conf 9.9 17.3 2.5 7.4 2004 ARI 6-10-0 5-3-0 -2.4 5.0 -9.8 7.4 2011 SFO 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost Conf 9.4 16.8 2.1 7.3 2009 CHI 7-9-0 5-3-0 -3.0 4.3 -10.3 7.3 2005 CHI 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 3.6 10.9 -3.6 7.3 2005 GNB 4-12-0 3-5-0 -2.9 4.4 -10.1 7.3 2008 DAL 9-7-0 6-2-0 -0.2 7.0 -7.4 7.2 2009 JAX 7-9-0 5-3-0 -5.6 1.5 -12.8 7.1 2012 ARI 5-11-0 4-4-0 -6.7 0.4 -13.8 7.1 2002 GNB 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost WC 4.4 11.4 -2.6 7.0 2006 IND 12-4-0 8-0-0 Won SB 4.2 11.1 -2.8 6.9 2007 SEA 10-6-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 6.4 13.3 -0.5 6.9 2003 DET 5-11-0 5-3-0 -6.8 0.0 -13.6 6.8 2010 KAN 10-6-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 2.5 9.3 -4.3 6.8 2015 SFO 5-11-0 4-4-0 -9.3 -2.6 -16.0 6.7 2013 NYJ 8-8-0 6-2-0 -6.1 0.6 -12.8 6.7 2004 ATL 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost Conf 0.2 6.9 -6.5 6.7 2014 DEN 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 8.0 14.6 1.4 6.6 2015 WAS 9-7-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 0.6 7.1 -6.0 6.6 2014 NWE 12-4-0 7-1-0 Won SB 9.7 16.3 3.1 6.6 2013 BUF 6-10-0 4-4-0 -3.1 3.5 -9.6 6.6 2014 DET 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 2.4 8.9 -4.0 6.4 2010 SEA 7-9-0 5-3-0 Lost Div -6.1 0.4 -12.5 6.4 2009 CIN 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 0.9 7.3 -5.5 6.4 2003 BUF 6-10-0 4-4-0 -2.3 4.1 -8.6 6.4 2005 SFO 4-12-0 3-5-0 -11.8 -5.5 -18.1 6.3 2009 DET 2-14-0 2-6-0 -14.5 -8.3 -20.8 6.3 2005 NYG 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 6.8 13.0 0.5 6.3 2011 GNB 15-1-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 12.6 18.8 6.4 6.2 2011 IND 2-14-0 2-6-0 -11.7 -5.5 -17.9 6.2 2015 JAX 5-11-0 4-4-0 -4.5 1.6 -10.6 6.1 2007 SDG 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost Conf 8.0 14.1 1.9 6.1 2013 CAR 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 7.8 13.9 1.8 6.1 2007 DEN 7-9-0 5-3-0 -5.6 0.5 -11.6 6.1 2012 BAL 10-6-0 6-2-0 Won SB 3.4 9.4 -2.6 6.0 2005 WAS 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 4.1 10.1 -1.9 6.0 2004 TAM 5-11-0 4-4-0 -0.2 5.8 -6.1 5.9 2010 GNB 10-6-0 7-1-0 Won SB 9.3 15.1 3.4 5.9 2007 PIT 10-6-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 7.8 13.6 1.9 5.9 2007 TAM 9-7-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 4.0 9.9 -1.9 5.9 2005 KAN 10-6-0 7-1-0 4.9 10.8 -1.0 5.9 2003 BAL 10-6-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 6.9 12.8 1.0 5.9 2002 DET 3-13-0 3-5-0 -9.1 -3.3 -14.9 5.8 2012 IND 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost WC -1.9 3.9 -7.6 5.8 2011 DAL 8-8-0 5-3-0 1.4 7.1 -4.4 5.8 2003 NWE 14-2-0 8-0-0 Won SB 6.9 12.6 1.1 5.8 2013 DAL 8-8-0 5-3-0 0.4 6.1 -5.3 5.7 2007 BAL 5-11-0 4-4-0 -6.8 -1.1 -12.5 5.7 2007 JAX 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 6.7 12.4 1.0 5.7 2014 SDG 9-7-0 5-3-0 0.0 5.6 -5.6 5.6 2005 TEN 4-12-0 3-5-0 -7.6 -2.0 -13.3 5.6 2012 GNB 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 6.1 11.6 0.5 5.6 2008 IND 12-4-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 4.9 10.5 -0.6 5.6 2011 BAL 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost Conf 7.0 12.5 1.5 5.5 2011 NYJ 8-8-0 6-2-0 0.9 6.4 -4.6 5.5 2013 ARI 10-6-0 6-2-0 3.4 8.9 -2.0 5.4 2011 TAM 4-12-0 3-5-0 -12.9 -7.5 -18.4 5.4 2006 HOU 6-10-0 4-4-0 -6.2 -0.8 -11.6 5.4 2005 SEA 13-3-0 8-0-0 Lost SB 11.3 16.8 5.9 5.4 2012 BUF 6-10-0 4-4-0 -5.7 -0.4 -11.0 5.3 2012 OAK 4-12-0 3-5-0 -9.6 -4.3 -14.9 5.3 2015 PIT 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 6.5 11.8 1.3 5.3 2011 ATL 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 3.3 8.5 -2.0 5.3 2008 SDG 8-8-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 5.8 10.9 0.6 5.1 2014 BAL 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 6.7 11.8 1.6 5.1 2005 DAL 9-7-0 5-3-0 1.1 6.1 -4.0 5.1 2005 DEN 13-3-0 8-0-0 Lost Conf 8.6 13.6 3.5 5.1 2015 NOR 7-9-0 4-4-0 -4.3 0.8 -9.3 5.0 2011 CHI 8-8-0 5-3-0 0.8 5.8 -4.3 5.0 2008 ATL 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 4.1 9.1 -0.9 5.0 2008 HOU 8-8-0 6-2-0 -1.8 3.3 -6.8 5.0 2008 NOR 8-8-0 6-2-0 4.4 9.4 -0.6 5.0 2008 SEA 4-12-0 2-6-0 -6.1 -1.3 -11.0 4.9 2005 BUF 5-11-0 4-4-0 -6.0 -1.1 -10.9 4.9 2002 DAL 5-11-0 4-4-0 -7.0 -2.1 -11.9 4.9 2014 OAK 3-13-0 3-5-0 -12.4 -7.6 -17.3 4.8 2013 MIN 5-10-1 5-2-1 -5.6 -0.8 -10.4 4.8 2008 STL 2-14-0 1-7-0 -14.6 -9.8 -19.4 4.8 2014 PHI 10-6-0 6-2-0 4.6 9.4 -0.1 4.8 2006 KAN 9-7-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 1.0 5.8 -3.8 4.8 2002 MIN 6-10-0 4-4-0 -3.3 1.5 -8.0 4.8 2015 NYJ 10-6-0 6-2-0 4.6 9.3 -0.1 4.7 2014 IND 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost Conf 5.6 10.3 0.9 4.7 2014 KAN 9-7-0 6-2-0 4.5 9.1 -0.1 4.6 2007 WAS 9-7-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 1.5 6.1 -3.1 4.6 2005 ARI 5-11-0 3-5-0 -4.8 -0.1 -9.4 4.6 2012 NOR 7-9-0 4-4-0 0.4 5.0 -4.1 4.6 2010 STL 7-9-0 5-3-0 -2.4 2.1 -7.0 4.6 2008 NYG 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 8.3 12.9 3.8 4.6 2003 TEN 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 6.9 11.5 2.4 4.6 2015 NWE 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost Conf 9.4 13.9 4.9 4.5 2004 KAN 7-9-0 4-4-0 3.0 7.5 -1.5 4.5 2011 DET 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 5.4 9.9 1.0 4.4 2011 SDG 8-8-0 5-3-0 1.8 6.3 -2.6 4.4 2004 PIT 15-1-0 8-0-0 Lost Conf 7.6 12.0 3.1 4.4 2012 CLE 5-11-0 4-4-0 -4.1 0.3 -8.5 4.4 2013 TAM 4-12-0 3-5-0 -6.3 -2.0 -10.6 4.3 2007 ARI 8-8-0 6-2-0 0.3 4.6 -4.0 4.3 2007 GNB 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost Conf 9.0 13.3 4.8 4.3 2004 NYJ 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 4.5 8.8 0.3 4.3 2013 NYG 7-9-0 4-4-0 -5.6 -1.4 -9.8 4.2 2012 MIA 7-9-0 5-3-0 -1.8 2.4 -6.0 4.2 2010 DET 6-10-0 4-4-0 -0.4 3.8 -4.6 4.2 2007 STL 3-13-0 1-7-0 -10.9 -6.8 -15.1 4.2 2013 BAL 8-8-0 6-2-0 -2.0 2.1 -6.1 4.1 2012 DEN 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 12.0 16.1 7.9 4.1 2007 MIN 8-8-0 5-3-0 3.4 7.5 -0.8 4.1 2013 DEN 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost SB 12.9 17.0 8.9 4.1 2009 DAL 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 6.9 11.0 2.9 4.1 2004 SDG 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 8.3 12.4 4.3 4.1 2003 HOU 5-11-0 3-5-0 -7.8 -3.8 -11.9 4.1 2015 CAR 15-1-0 8-0-0 Lost SB 12.0 16.0 8.0 4.0 2005 PHI 6-10-0 4-4-0 -4.9 -0.9 -8.9 4.0 2014 JAX 3-13-0 3-5-0 -10.2 -6.3 -14.1 3.9 2013 CHI 8-8-0 5-3-0 -2.1 1.9 -6.0 3.9 2009 SFO 8-8-0 6-2-0 3.1 7.0 -0.9 3.9 2002 ARI 5-11-0 3-5-0 -9.7 -5.8 -13.6 3.9 2013 STL 7-9-0 5-3-0 -1.0 2.9 -4.9 3.9 2006 PIT 8-8-0 5-3-0 2.4 6.3 -1.5 3.9 2015 IND 8-8-0 4-4-0 -4.7 -0.9 -8.5 3.8 2011 MIN 3-13-0 1-7-0 -6.8 -3.0 -10.6 3.8 2010 DEN 4-12-0 3-5-0 -7.9 -4.1 -11.8 3.8 2005 NOR 3-13-0 1-7-0 -10.2 -6.4 -14.0 3.8 2013 SEA 13-3-0 7-1-0 Won SB 11.6 15.4 7.9 3.8 2012 KAN 2-14-0 1-7-0 -13.4 -9.6 -17.1 3.8 2009 BUF 6-10-0 3-5-0 -4.3 -0.5 -8.0 3.8 2006 SFO 7-9-0 4-4-0 -7.1 -3.4 -10.9 3.8 2012 MIN 10-6-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 1.9 5.6 -1.8 3.7 2008 BAL 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost Conf 8.8 12.5 5.1 3.7 2005 DET 5-11-0 3-5-0 -5.7 -2.0 -9.4 3.7 2011 ARI 8-8-0 6-2-0 -2.3 1.4 -5.9 3.6 2011 JAX 5-11-0 4-4-0 -5.4 -1.8 -9.0 3.6 2013 DET 7-9-0 4-4-0 1.2 4.8 -2.4 3.6 2008 GNB 6-10-0 4-4-0 2.4 6.0 -1.1 3.6 2003 PIT 6-10-0 4-4-0 -1.7 1.9 -5.3 3.6 2015 STL 7-9-0 5-3-0 -3.1 0.4 -6.6 3.5 2011 STL 2-14-0 1-7-0 -13.4 -9.9 -16.9 3.5 2006 OAK 2-14-0 2-6-0 -10.3 -6.8 -13.8 3.5 2004 DAL 6-10-0 4-4-0 -7.0 -3.5 -10.5 3.5 2013 GNB 8-7-1 4-3-1 Lost WC -0.7 2.8 -4.1 3.4 2010 NYJ 11-5-0 5-3-0 Lost Conf 3.9 7.4 0.5 3.4 2008 NYJ 9-7-0 5-3-0 3.1 6.5 -0.4 3.4 2007 BUF 7-9-0 4-4-0 -6.4 -3.0 -9.8 3.4 2007 CLE 10-6-0 7-1-0 1.3 4.6 -2.1 3.4 2004 CLE 4-12-0 3-5-0 -7.1 -3.8 -10.5 3.4 2015 GNB 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 2.8 6.1 -0.5 3.3 2012 HOU 12-4-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 5.3 8.6 2.0 3.3 2012 TEN 6-10-0 4-4-0 -8.8 -5.5 -12.1 3.3 2015 ATL 8-8-0 4-4-0 -0.4 2.9 -3.6 3.3 2004 OAK 5-11-0 3-5-0 -7.6 -4.4 -10.9 3.3 2003 JAX 5-11-0 5-3-0 -3.4 -0.3 -6.6 3.2 2015 CLE 3-13-0 2-6-0 -9.6 -6.5 -12.8 3.1 2015 DET 7-9-0 4-4-0 -2.6 0.5 -5.8 3.1 2015 HOU 9-7-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 1.6 4.8 -1.5 3.1 2014 PIT 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 4.3 7.4 1.1 3.1 2013 CLE 4-12-0 3-5-0 -6.1 -3.0 -9.3 3.1 2013 NWE 12-4-0 8-0-0 Lost Conf 6.6 9.8 3.5 3.1 2012 SFO 11-4-1 6-1-1 Lost SB 7.8 10.9 4.6 3.1 2003 DEN 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 5.0 8.1 1.9 3.1 2004 IND 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 10.7 13.8 7.6 3.1 2013 ATL 4-12-0 3-5-0 -5.6 -2.6 -8.6 3.0 2012 PIT 8-8-0 5-3-0 1.4 4.4 -1.6 3.0 2009 CLE 5-11-0 3-5-0 -8.1 -5.1 -11.1 3.0 2008 TAM 9-7-0 6-2-0 2.4 5.4 -0.6 3.0 2003 NOR 8-8-0 5-3-0 0.9 3.9 -2.1 3.0 2006 WAS 5-11-0 3-5-0 -4.3 -1.4 -7.3 2.9 2014 STL 6-10-0 3-5-0 -1.9 1.0 -4.8 2.9 2009 ATL 9-7-0 6-2-0 2.4 5.3 -0.5 2.9 2006 SEA 9-7-0 5-3-0 Lost Div -0.4 2.5 -3.3 2.9 2002 ATL 9-6-1 5-2-1 Lost Div 5.5 8.4 2.6 2.9 2002 CAR 7-9-0 4-4-0 -2.8 0.1 -5.6 2.9 2006 SDG 14-2-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 11.8 14.6 9.0 2.8 2005 MIA 9-7-0 5-3-0 0.1 2.8 -2.6 2.7 2004 MIA 4-12-0 3-5-0 -4.9 -2.3 -7.6 2.7 2014 BUF 9-7-0 5-3-0 3.4 6.0 0.8 2.6 2009 MIA 7-9-0 4-4-0 -1.9 0.8 -4.5 2.6 2004 MIN 8-8-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 0.6 3.3 -2.0 2.6 2003 NYJ 6-10-0 4-4-0 -1.0 1.6 -3.6 2.6 2003 OAK 4-12-0 4-4-0 -6.8 -4.3 -9.4 2.6 2002 CHI 4-12-0 3-5-0 -6.1 -3.6 -8.6 2.5 2012 TAM 7-9-0 3-5-0 -0.3 2.1 -2.8 2.4 2010 HOU 6-10-0 4-4-0 -2.3 0.1 -4.8 2.4 2007 CIN 7-9-0 5-3-0 -0.3 2.1 -2.8 2.4 2014 ATL 6-10-0 3-5-0 -2.3 0.1 -4.6 2.4 2004 HOU 7-9-0 3-5-0 -1.9 0.5 -4.3 2.4 2010 CIN 4-12-0 3-5-0 -4.6 -2.3 -6.9 2.3 2010 TEN 6-10-0 3-5-0 1.1 3.4 -1.3 2.3 2009 NYG 8-8-0 4-4-0 -1.6 0.8 -3.9 2.3 2007 OAK 4-12-0 2-6-0 -7.2 -4.9 -9.5 2.3 2014 NYJ 4-12-0 2-6-0 -7.4 -5.1 -9.6 2.3 2012 PHI 4-12-0 2-6-0 -10.3 -8.0 -12.5 2.3 2004 PHI 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost SB 7.9 10.1 5.6 2.3 2014 ARI 11-5-0 7-1-0 Lost WC 0.7 2.9 -1.5 2.2 2010 IND 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 2.9 5.1 0.8 2.2 2007 SFO 5-11-0 3-5-0 -9.1 -6.9 -11.3 2.2 2006 ARI 5-11-0 3-5-0 -4.7 -2.5 -6.9 2.2 2006 DET 3-13-0 2-6-0 -5.8 -3.6 -8.0 2.2 2005 OAK 4-12-0 2-6-0 -5.8 -3.6 -8.0 2.2 2008 SFO 7-9-0 4-4-0 -2.6 -0.5 -4.8 2.1 2003 GNB 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 8.4 10.5 6.4 2.1 2015 NYG 6-10-0 3-5-0 -1.4 0.6 -3.4 2.0 2014 SEA 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost SB 8.8 10.8 6.8 2.0 2013 SDG 9-7-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 3.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 2008 CLE 4-12-0 1-7-0 -7.4 -5.4 -9.4 2.0 2006 BAL 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 9.5 11.5 7.5 2.0 2005 TAM 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 1.6 3.6 -0.4 2.0 2008 CIN 4-11-1 3-4-1 -10.0 -8.1 -11.9 1.9 2007 CHI 7-9-0 4-4-0 -0.9 1.0 -2.8 1.9 2005 SDG 9-7-0 4-4-0 6.6 8.5 4.8 1.9 2005 STL 6-10-0 3-5-0 -4.1 -2.3 -6.0 1.9 2002 WAS 7-9-0 5-3-0 -3.6 -1.8 -5.5 1.9 2013 PIT 8-8-0 5-3-0 0.6 2.4 -1.3 1.8 2011 CAR 6-10-0 3-5-0 -1.4 0.4 -3.3 1.8 2007 NWE 16-0-0 8-0-0 Lost SB 19.7 21.5 17.9 1.8 2006 BUF 7-9-0 4-4-0 -0.7 1.1 -2.5 1.8 2002 JAX 6-10-0 3-5-0 0.8 2.6 -1.0 1.8 2004 CIN 8-8-0 5-3-0 0.1 1.9 -1.6 1.8 2004 SEA 9-7-0 5-3-0 Lost WC -0.1 1.6 -1.9 1.8 2003 CLE 5-11-0 2-6-0 -4.3 -2.5 -6.0 1.8 2014 MIN 7-9-0 5-3-0 -1.1 0.5 -2.8 1.6 2002 DEN 9-7-0 5-3-0 3.0 4.6 1.4 1.6 2013 TEN 7-9-0 3-5-0 -1.2 0.4 -2.8 1.6 2010 BAL 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 5.4 7.0 3.9 1.6 2010 NWE 14-2-0 8-0-0 Lost Div 12.8 14.4 11.3 1.6 2005 CLE 6-10-0 4-4-0 -4.3 -2.8 -5.9 1.6 2002 TEN 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost Conf 2.7 4.3 1.1 1.6 2013 HOU 2-14-0 1-7-0 -9.5 -8.0 -11.0 1.5 2010 ATL 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 7.9 9.4 6.4 1.5 2006 CHI 13-3-0 6-2-0 Lost SB 10.8 12.3 9.3 1.5 2010 OAK 8-8-0 5-3-0 2.4 3.9 1.0 1.4 2008 CHI 9-7-0 6-2-0 1.6 3.0 0.1 1.4 2004 SFO 2-14-0 1-7-0 -12.1 -10.6 -13.5 1.4 2004 WAS 6-10-0 3-5-0 -1.6 -0.1 -3.0 1.4 2002 NYG 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 2.6 4.0 1.1 1.4 2007 TEN 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 0.3 1.6 -1.1 1.4 2004 DEN 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 4.8 6.1 3.5 1.3 2005 JAX 12-4-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 5.8 7.0 4.5 1.3 2003 CIN 8-8-0 5-3-0 -2.4 -1.1 -3.6 1.3 2002 SFO 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 1.0 2.3 -0.3 1.3 2015 MIN 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 3.9 5.1 2.8 1.2 2014 CIN 10-5-1 5-2-1 Lost WC 1.3 2.5 0.1 1.2 2012 DET 4-12-0 2-6-0 -4.1 -2.9 -5.3 1.2 2004 JAX 9-7-0 4-4-0 -1.2 0.0 -2.4 1.2 2004 NWE 14-2-0 8-0-0 Won SB 11.1 12.3 9.9 1.2 2002 NYJ 9-7-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 1.4 2.6 0.3 1.2 2014 TEN 2-14-0 1-7-0 -11.5 -10.4 -12.6 1.1 2011 MIA 6-10-0 4-4-0 1.0 2.1 -0.1 1.1 2009 PIT 9-7-0 6-2-0 2.8 3.9 1.6 1.1 2002 BUF 8-8-0 5-3-0 -1.1 0.0 -2.3 1.1 2004 BUF 9-7-0 5-3-0 6.9 8.0 5.9 1.1 2015 BUF 8-8-0 5-3-0 1.3 2.3 0.3 1.0 2014 CLE 7-9-0 4-4-0 -2.4 -1.4 -3.4 1.0 2008 DEN 8-8-0 4-4-0 -4.9 -3.9 -5.9 1.0 2008 MIN 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 2.9 3.9 1.9 1.0 2002 OAK 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost SB 9.1 10.1 8.1 1.0 2002 PHI 12-4-0 7-1-0 Lost Conf 10.9 11.9 9.9 1.0 2014 MIA 8-8-0 4-4-0 0.9 1.9 0.0 0.9 2011 WAS 5-11-0 2-6-0 -4.9 -4.0 -5.9 0.9 2011 SEA 7-9-0 4-4-0 0.4 1.3 -0.5 0.9 2008 PIT 12-4-0 6-2-0 Won SB 7.8 8.6 6.9 0.9 2015 MIA 6-10-0 3-5-0 -4.9 -4.1 -5.8 0.8 2011 NWE 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost SB 10.7 11.5 9.9 0.8 2003 IND 12-4-0 5-3-0 Lost Conf 6.9 7.8 6.1 0.8 2010 JAX 8-8-0 5-3-0 -4.1 -3.4 -4.9 0.8 2009 PHI 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 5.8 6.5 5.0 0.8 2014 CAR 7-8-1 4-3-1 Lost Div -2.2 -1.5 -2.9 0.7 2014 CHI 5-11-0 2-6-0 -7.7 -7.0 -8.4 0.7 2011 CLE 4-12-0 3-5-0 -5.6 -4.9 -6.3 0.7 2008 KAN 2-14-0 1-7-0 -9.3 -8.6 -10.0 0.7 2006 MIA 6-10-0 4-4-0 -1.4 -0.8 -2.1 0.7 2013 WAS 3-13-0 2-6-0 -9.0 -8.4 -9.6 0.6 2012 WAS 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 3.0 3.6 2.4 0.6 2002 CLE 9-7-0 3-5-0 Lost WC 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.6 2013 IND 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 3.4 4.0 2.9 0.6 2009 CAR 8-8-0 5-3-0 0.4 1.0 -0.1 0.6 2007 ATL 4-12-0 3-5-0 -9.7 -9.1 -10.3 0.6 2015 SDG 4-12-0 3-5-0 -4.9 -4.4 -5.4 0.5 2014 SFO 8-8-0 4-4-0 -2.1 -1.6 -2.6 0.5 2011 NYG 9-7-0 4-4-0 Won SB -0.4 0.1 -0.9 0.5 2010 BUF 4-12-0 2-6-0 -8.9 -8.4 -9.4 0.5 2007 DAL 13-3-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 8.1 8.6 7.6 0.5 2006 CLE 4-12-0 2-6-0 -7.4 -6.9 -7.9 0.5 2006 PHI 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 4.4 4.9 3.9 0.5 2006 TAM 4-12-0 3-5-0 -8.9 -8.4 -9.4 0.5 2005 ATL 8-8-0 4-4-0 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.5 2010 PIT 12-4-0 5-3-0 Lost SB 8.9 9.4 8.5 0.4 2002 HOU 4-12-0 2-6-0 -8.9 -8.5 -9.4 0.4 2015 KAN 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 7.4 7.8 7.0 0.4 2013 PHI 10-6-0 4-4-0 Lost WC 3.8 4.1 3.4 0.4 2003 SDG 4-12-0 2-6-0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.4 0.4 2014 HOU 9-7-0 5-3-0 4.1 4.4 3.8 0.3 2007 NYJ 4-12-0 3-5-0 -5.4 -5.1 -5.8 0.3 2003 DAL 10-6-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.3 2006 ATL 7-9-0 3-5-0 -2.3 -2.0 -2.5 0.3 2010 MIN 6-10-0 4-4-0 -4.2 -4.0 -4.4 0.2 2010 WAS 6-10-0 2-6-0 -4.7 -4.5 -4.9 0.2 2007 KAN 4-12-0 2-6-0 -6.8 -6.6 -7.0 0.2 2013 MIA 8-8-0 4-4-0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 0.1 2011 PHI 8-8-0 3-5-0 4.3 4.4 4.1 0.1 2009 OAK 5-11-0 2-6-0 -11.4 -11.3 -11.5 0.1 2006 TEN 8-8-0 4-4-0 -4.8 -4.6 -4.9 0.1 2002 SEA 7-9-0 3-5-0 -0.9 -0.8 -1.0 0.1 2013 OAK 4-12-0 3-5-0 -8.2 -8.1 -8.3 0.1 2010 NYG 10-6-0 5-3-0 2.9 3.0 2.9 0.1 2014 NYG 6-10-0 3-5-0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 0.0 2012 ATL 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost Conf 7.5 7.5 7.5 0.0 2011 KAN 7-9-0 3-5-0 -7.9 -7.9 -7.9 0.0 2006 DEN 9-7-0 4-4-0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 2005 CAR 11-5-0 5-3-0 Lost Conf 8.3 8.3 8.3 0.0 2002 TAM 12-4-0 6-2-0 Won SB 9.4 9.4 9.4 0.0 2012 CIN 10-6-0 4-4-0 Lost WC 4.4 4.4 4.5 -0.1 2009 STL 1-15-0 0-8-0 -16.3 -16.4 -16.3 -0.1 2003 CAR 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost SB 1.3 1.3 1.4 -0.1 2004 NYG 6-10-0 3-5-0 -2.8 -2.9 -2.6 -0.1 2003 NYG 4-12-0 1-7-0 -9.0 -9.1 -8.9 -0.1 2008 WAS 8-8-0 4-4-0 -1.9 -2.1 -1.8 -0.2 2004 TEN 5-11-0 2-6-0 -5.9 -6.1 -5.8 -0.2 2003 TAM 7-9-0 3-5-0 2.3 2.1 2.5 -0.2 2012 DAL 8-8-0 4-4-0 -1.5 -1.8 -1.3 -0.3 2009 GNB 11-5-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 10.3 10.0 10.5 -0.3 2002 BAL 7-9-0 4-4-0 -2.4 -2.6 -2.1 -0.3 2002 IND 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 2.3 2.0 2.5 -0.3 2002 SDG 8-8-0 5-3-0 -2.1 -2.4 -1.9 -0.3 2009 HOU 9-7-0 4-4-0 3.4 3.1 3.8 -0.3 2009 NOR 13-3-0 6-2-0 Won SB 10.6 10.3 10.9 -0.3 2005 NWE 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 2.6 2.3 2.9 -0.3 2010 CAR 2-14-0 2-6-0 -13.3 -13.6 -12.9 -0.4 2011 HOU 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 6.4 6.0 6.9 -0.4 2008 NWE 11-5-0 5-3-0 6.3 5.9 6.8 -0.4 2008 TEN 13-3-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 8.8 8.4 9.3 -0.4 2006 NYJ 10-6-0 4-4-0 Lost WC 1.3 0.9 1.8 -0.4 2003 ATL 5-11-0 2-6-0 -7.7 -8.1 -7.3 -0.4 2010 DAL 6-10-0 2-6-0 -2.6 -3.1 -2.1 -0.5 2007 PHI 8-8-0 3-5-0 2.3 1.8 2.8 -0.5 2015 DEN 12-4-0 6-2-0 Won SB 3.7 3.1 4.3 -0.6 2015 PHI 7-9-0 3-5-0 -3.3 -3.9 -2.8 -0.6 2005 HOU 2-14-0 2-6-0 -10.7 -11.3 -10.1 -0.6 2004 NOR 8-8-0 3-5-0 -3.6 -4.1 -3.0 -0.6 2011 TEN 9-7-0 5-3-0 0.5 -0.1 1.1 -0.6 2005 IND 14-2-0 7-1-0 Lost Div 12.0 11.4 12.6 -0.6 2010 CLE 5-11-0 3-5-0 -3.8 -4.5 -3.1 -0.7 2002 PIT 10-5-1 5-2-1 Lost Div 2.8 2.1 3.5 -0.7 2012 NYJ 6-10-0 3-5-0 -5.9 -6.8 -5.0 -0.9 2009 NYJ 9-7-0 4-4-0 Lost Conf 7.0 6.1 7.9 -0.9 2008 BUF 7-9-0 3-5-0 -0.4 -1.3 0.5 -0.9 2007 IND 13-3-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 11.8 10.9 12.6 -0.9 2004 CAR 7-9-0 3-5-0 1.0 0.1 1.9 -0.9 2014 WAS 4-12-0 3-5-0 -8.6 -9.5 -7.6 -0.9 2012 CHI 10-6-0 5-3-0 6.1 5.1 7.1 -1.0 2011 OAK 8-8-0 3-5-0 -4.6 -5.6 -3.6 -1.0 2011 CIN 9-7-0 4-4-0 Lost WC 1.3 0.3 2.4 -1.1 2004 GNB 10-6-0 4-4-0 Lost WC 2.8 1.6 3.9 -1.1 2002 NOR 9-7-0 4-4-0 2.8 1.6 3.9 -1.1 2014 TAM 2-14-0 0-8-0 -8.3 -9.5 -7.1 -1.2 2005 CIN 11-5-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 4.4 3.3 5.6 -1.2 2008 JAX 5-11-0 2-6-0 -4.1 -5.4 -2.8 -1.3 2015 CIN 12-4-0 6-2-0 Lost WC 8.8 7.4 10.1 -1.4 2007 MIA 1-15-0 1-7-0 -10.6 -12.0 -9.3 -1.4 2012 NWE 12-4-0 6-2-0 Lost Conf 14.1 12.6 15.6 -1.5 2015 BAL 5-11-0 3-5-0 -4.6 -6.1 -3.0 -1.6 2007 NOR 7-9-0 3-5-0 -0.6 -2.1 1.0 -1.6 2006 STL 8-8-0 4-4-0 -0.9 -2.6 0.9 -1.8 2004 CHI 5-11-0 2-6-0 -6.3 -8.0 -4.5 -1.8 2010 NOR 11-5-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 4.8 3.0 6.6 -1.8 2005 PIT 11-5-0 5-3-0 Won SB 8.2 6.4 10.0 -1.8 2015 TAM 6-10-0 3-5-0 -4.7 -6.6 -2.8 -1.9 2011 DEN 8-8-0 3-5-0 Lost Div -5.1 -7.0 -3.1 -1.9 2015 TEN 3-13-0 1-7-0 -7.8 -9.9 -5.6 -2.1 2013 SFO 12-4-0 6-2-0 Lost Conf 8.4 6.3 10.5 -2.1 2002 NWE 9-7-0 5-3-0 2.2 0.0 4.4 -2.2 2015 CHI 6-10-0 1-7-0 -3.9 -6.1 -1.6 -2.3 2010 PHI 10-6-0 4-4-0 Lost WC 3.9 1.6 6.1 -2.3 2009 DEN 8-8-0 4-4-0 0.1 -2.1 2.4 -2.3 2003 PHI 12-4-0 5-3-0 Lost Conf 5.4 3.1 7.8 -2.3 2002 CIN 2-14-0 1-7-0 -11.1 -13.4 -8.8 -2.3 2015 SEA 10-6-0 5-3-0 Lost Div 9.1 6.8 11.5 -2.4 2006 CIN 8-8-0 4-4-0 2.6 0.3 5.0 -2.4 2009 IND 14-2-0 7-1-0 Lost SB 6.8 4.4 9.3 -2.4 2012 SDG 7-9-0 3-5-0 0.0 -2.5 2.5 -2.5 2006 DAL 9-7-0 4-4-0 Lost WC 4.7 2.1 7.3 -2.6 2009 WAS 4-12-0 3-5-0 -4.4 -7.0 -1.8 -2.6 2009 SDG 13-3-0 6-2-0 Lost Div 8.4 5.6 11.1 -2.8 2010 MIA 7-9-0 1-7-0 -3.8 -6.6 -0.9 -2.9 2012 JAX 2-14-0 1-7-0 -11.8 -14.8 -8.9 -2.9 2015 ARI 13-3-0 6-2-0 Lost Conf 11.0 8.0 14.0 -3.0 2015 DAL 4-12-0 1-7-0 -6.2 -9.3 -3.1 -3.1 2014 NOR 7-9-0 3-5-0 -1.4 -4.5 1.6 -3.1 2003 WAS 5-11-0 3-5-0 -5.3 -8.4 -2.3 -3.1 2015 OAK 7-9-0 3-5-0 -2.5 -5.6 0.6 -3.1 2012 STL 7-8-1 4-3-1 -3.1 -6.3 0.1 -3.2 2008 OAK 5-11-0 2-6-0 -7.8 -11.0 -4.6 -3.2 2006 CAR 8-8-0 4-4-0 -2.2 -5.4 1.0 -3.2 2006 NYG 8-8-0 3-5-0 Lost WC -0.4 -3.6 2.8 -3.2 2013 JAX 4-12-0 1-7-0 -12.6 -15.9 -9.4 -3.3 2009 KAN 4-12-0 1-7-0 -8.1 -11.4 -4.9 -3.3 2004 DET 6-10-0 3-5-0 -3.4 -6.6 -0.1 -3.3 2010 TAM 10-6-0 4-4-0 1.4 -1.9 4.8 -3.3 2006 MIN 6-10-0 3-5-0 -2.8 -6.1 0.5 -3.3 2010 CHI 11-5-0 5-3-0 Lost Conf 3.0 -0.5 6.5 -3.5 2008 MIA 11-5-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 1.8 -1.9 5.4 -3.6 2007 CAR 7-9-0 2-6-0 -5.0 -8.6 -1.4 -3.6 2003 MIA 10-6-0 4-4-0 3.1 -0.5 6.8 -3.6 2012 CAR 7-9-0 3-5-0 -0.4 -4.6 3.9 -4.3 2014 DAL 12-4-0 4-4-0 Lost Div 7.2 2.6 11.8 -4.6 2009 ARI 10-6-0 4-4-0 Lost Div 3.1 -1.5 7.8 -4.6 2006 NWE 12-4-0 5-3-0 Lost Conf 9.3 4.5 14.0 -4.8 2013 KAN 11-5-0 5-3-0 Lost WC 7.8 2.9 12.8 -4.9 2006 GNB 8-8-0 3-5-0 -4.1 -9.0 0.9 -4.9 2006 NOR 10-6-0 4-4-0 Lost Conf 5.7 0.8 10.6 -4.9 2007 NYG 10-6-0 3-5-0 Won SB 1.4 -3.8 6.5 -5.1 2009 TAM 3-13-0 1-7-0 -9.8 -15.8 -3.8 -6.0 2008 DET 0-16-0 0-8-0 -15.6 -22.0 -9.1 -6.4

The most important thing to note about team-specific HFA is that it is wildly unpredictable, as we should expect considering the ups and downs of teams’ fortunes from season to season. Probably the best example of this is the 2003 49ers. Here’s a plot of San Francisco’s HFA numbers since 2002:

Their point differential at home in 2003 was 16.3, on the road it was -10.4, making for an observed HFA of 13.3, the league highest since 2002. But what about the year before and year after? In 2002, it was 1.3, the following year, 1.4. The graph above, with its drastic spikes, is fairly typical of every NFL team.

So, beyond general interest and trivia, the single season numbers don’t tell us much. But taking each team’s average over a longer period of time does give us numbers that go along with our common consensus, e.g., “Seattle has great home field advantage, the Panthers, not so much”. Below is a table of each team’s HFA using data since 2002:

Rk Team Stadium *for the 2015 season* (year first used) Tot W/L% Home W/L% Tot MoV Home MoV Away MoV Obs HFA 1 BAL M&T Bank Stadium (1998) 0.567 0.732 2.9 7.4 -1.6 4.5 2 SEA CenturyLink Field (2002) 0.567 0.696 3.0 7.3 -1.2 4.2 3 ARI University of Phoenix Stadium (2006) 0.464 0.598 -2.5 1.6 -6.6 4.1 4 SFO Levi's Stadium (2014) 0.469 0.571 -1.7 2.4 -5.8 4.1 5 GNB Lambeau Field (1957) 0.625 0.705 4.9 8.7 1.1 3.8 6 STL Edward Jones Dome (1995) 0.371 0.464 -5.2 -1.5 -8.8 3.7 7 DET Ford Field (2002) 0.339 0.438 -4.6 -1.1 -8.2 3.5 8 MIN Mall of America Field (1982) 0.491 0.634 0.0 3.5 -3.5 3.5 9 BUF Ralph Wilson Stadium (1973) 0.420 0.509 -2.2 1.0 -5.5 3.3 10 KAN Arrowhead Stadium (1972) 0.478 0.563 0.0 2.9 -3.0 3.0 11 NYJ MetLife Stadium (2010) 0.482 0.563 -0.4 2.4 -3.3 2.9 12 PIT Heinz Field (2001) 0.634 0.714 4.7 7.5 1.8 2.8 13 JAX EverBank Field (1995) 0.402 0.491 -3.1 -0.5 -5.7 2.6 14 HOU NRG Stadium (2002) 0.433 0.500 -2.0 0.5 -4.6 2.6 15 SDG Qualcomm Stadium (1967) 0.558 0.634 3.3 5.8 0.8 2.5 16 IND Lucas Oil Stadium (2008) 0.679 0.732 3.8 6.3 1.3 2.5 17 ATL Georgia Dome (1992) 0.527 0.598 0.3 2.7 -2.2 2.4 18 DEN Sports Authority Field at Mile High (2001) 0.607 0.679 2.5 4.8 0.3 2.3 19 CHI Soldier Field (1971) 0.496 0.554 -0.6 1.7 -2.8 2.3 20 NOR Louisiana Superdome (1975) 0.545 0.571 2.1 4.2 0.0 2.1 21 CLE FirstEnergy Stadium (1999) 0.335 0.393 -4.8 -2.8 -6.8 2.0 22 DAL AT&T Stadium (2009) 0.527 0.554 0.5 2.4 -1.3 1.9 23 TEN Nissan Stadium (1999) 0.464 0.500 -2.2 -0.3 -4.0 1.8 24 NWE Gillette Stadium (2002) 0.763 0.848 9.3 11.1 7.5 1.8 25 NYG MetLife Stadium (2010) 0.518 0.518 0.4 1.8 -1.1 1.4 26 OAK O.co Coliseum (1995) 0.330 0.384 -5.9 -4.5 -7.3 1.4 27 WAS FedExField (1997) 0.406 0.464 -2.8 -1.4 -4.2 1.4 28 PHI Lincoln Financial Field (2003) 0.580 0.580 3.0 4.4 1.7 1.4 29 CIN Paul Brown Stadium (2000) 0.509 0.571 0.2 1.6 -1.1 1.3 30 TAM Raymond James Stadium (1998) 0.415 0.455 -2.2 -1.0 -3.4 1.2 31 MIA Sun Life Stadium (1987) 0.442 0.482 -1.3 -0.3 -2.4 1.1 32 CAR Bank of America Stadium (1996) 0.536 0.571 0.6 1.6 -0.3 1.0

Some thoughts:

1. Having a high HFA number doesn’t necessarily mean that a team was consistently outscoring their opponents at home, or even had a winning record there; it simply implies that they’re better at home than on the road. The St. Louis Rams had a losing record (0.464) and a -1.5 margin of victory at the Edward Jones Dome since 2002, but were even worse on the road, losing by an abysmal 8.8 points per game during that same period. This gives them a healthy HFA of 3.7, but they’re certainly not “dominant at home” the way Green Bay is, who have a similar HFA.

2. If you’re looking for another reason to hate – or love – the Patriots, look no further: since 2002, they have a road point differential of +7.5, easily the best in the league (maybe the best in history) and far ahead of second place Pittsburgh at +1.8. Granted, a good chunk of this comes from two epic seasons – 2007 and 2012, in which they clobbered teams on the road by an average of 17.9 and 15.6 points, respectively – but it’s still remarkable. Since they also dominated at home during this period, winning by an average of 11.1 points, their observed HFA is a lowly 1.8, the 24th “worst” in the league.

3. As mentioned above, and as can be seen by the standard deviation numbers in the tables, using these HFA numbers for predictive purposes might be a fool’s errand. But, on the flip side, if we do agree that, say, the Packers have a better home field advantage at Lambeau Field than the Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium, than these numbers are a good place to start.

Finally, I thought it might be interesting to see which teams have the toughest schedule by combining their average opponent’s HFA and their average opponent’s 2015 SRS ratings. Note that this was written before last night’s game.

Rnk Team Avg Road Opp HFA Avg Road Opp SRS (2015) 2016 Road SOS 1 MIA 3.0 3.2 6.3 2 BUF 2.6 2.7 5.3 3 SFO 2.8 2.5 5.2 4 NYJ 2.8 2.3 5.1 5 STL 3.0 1.5 4.5 6 NWE 2.8 1.2 4.1 7 ARI 2.9 1.1 4.0 8 SEA 3.0 0.8 3.7 9 PHI 2.6 0.8 3.3 10 KAN 2.2 1.1 3.3 11 NOR 2.5 0.8 3.3 12 TAM 2.6 0.5 3.1 13 WAS 2.6 0.6 3.1 14 ATL 2.2 0.7 2.9 15 SDG 2.1 0.7 2.8 16 BAL 2.1 0.5 2.6 17 NYG 2.5 0.0 2.5 18 IND 2.6 -0.1 2.5 19 HOU 2.5 -0.1 2.3 20 DAL 2.5 -0.2 2.3 21 CIN 2.5 -0.3 2.2 22 CAR 2.3 -0.4 1.9 23 CLE 2.2 -0.8 1.4 24 JAX 2.7 -1.6 1.1 25 CHI 2.6 -1.8 0.7 26 DET 2.5 -1.8 0.7 27 MIN 2.2 -1.6 0.6 28 TEN 2.5 -2.1 0.4 29 DEN 2.0 -2.0 0.1 30 PIT 2.2 -2.2 0.0 31 OAK 2.5 -2.8 -0.3 32 GNB 2.4 -3.0 -0.6

After the usual caveats – 2015 SRS numbers might be meaningless (Vegas projections would be better), and the already noted volatility of the HFA numbers – we can see that it’s going to be a tough year for Miami. Like the other brethren of AFC East, the Dolphins have to take on two of the meanest divisions in football, the NFC West and the AFC North; on top of that, their opener is in Seattle, and they have winter games in Baltimore, New York (the Jets) and Buffalo. Their two-week stay on the West Coast against the Chargers and Rams in November might seem like a vacation.

As always, would love to hear any comments, thanks for reading.