Read this to learn more about how these projections work and this to understand the uncertainty each projection carries.



Last year the New York Rangers were coming off a 102-point season and had added the best free agent available in Kevin Shattenkirk. There were questions about the core and lack of elite talent – as has been the case during the majority of New York’s contending window outside of goalie Henrik Lundqvist – but many still figured the Rangers would continue to be among the league’s top teams.



The numbers crowd was much more skeptical, though, as they usually have been about the Rangers under coach Alain Vigneault the past few seasons. It always seemed as if there was something about the Rangers that defied modern analytical concepts – but it couldn’t yet be measured publicly. It appeared that 2017-18 would be more of the same: winning on the scoreboard despite consistently getting crushed on the shot clock.



As...