Tropical Cyclone Track Probability

Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),

and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.

Last updated: Thu Oct 1 00:48:16 UTC 2020

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and

mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm Rank Landfall/Crossing at

Any Intensity Landfall/Crossing at

Hurricane Intensity Landfall/Crossing at Major

Hurricane Intensity 18E-MARIE 1 Mexico (2% ▽) @ 3.7 days Mexico (1%) @ 3.7 days Mexico (1%) @ 3.7 days 2 Hawaii (1%) @ 8.2 days 99W-INVEST 1 Philippines (17%) @ 6.9 days Philippines (13% △) @ 6.9 days Philippines (8%) @ 6.9 days 2 Japan (11% ▽) @ 8.7 days Guam or w/i 1deg (5%) @ 67 hr Guam or w/i 1deg (3%) @ 67 hr 3 Guam or w/i 1deg (10% △) @ 67 hr China (5%) @ 9.2 days Japan (1%) @ 8.7 days

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm

and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.

Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.