Far from the sound and fury of Westminster, amid the hills and valleys of mid-Wales, a quieter but potentially significant political process is nearing an end as voters decide whether the Tory MP Chris Davies should lose his seat.

Residents of the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency have until 5pm on Thursday to sign a recall petition if they want their MP removed after his conviction for submitting fake expenses documents.

If 5,303 people sign (10% of the electorate) the petition, which opened in May, a by-election will be triggered that will prove a tricky and unwanted early test for the new Conservative leader and prime minister.

The chair of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Cadan ap Tomos, said it had been a low-key but important campaign. Unlike an election campaign there have been no posters or hustings, and parties are only allowed to spend up to £10,000.

Lib Dem activists have been sending out leaflets encouraging people to sign the petition and banging on doors of supporters – and others – to explain what is going on.

“It’s not about party politics, it’s about giving the people the opportunity to demand better,” said ap Tomos. “By signing the petition,people can get a representative they deserve.”

Fran Bateman, a Lib Dem party member from Hay-on-Wye, said a lot of people were angry at Davies. “I know a number of Conservative voters who are not happy,” she said. “It’s a very sad state of affairs.”

Averil de Vee, an artist in Brecon, voted for Davies in 2017 but said she now regretted doing so. “I really don’t want somebody representing me who is deceitful. I have to trust people in power.”

There were more sympathetic views towards Davies in Brecon’s indoor market. One stallholder, who asked not to be named, said Davies had been a “very silly boy” but should not face losing his seat. “It’s a bit of a fuss about nothing,” he said. “I think the whole thing is a waste of money.”

Davies’ conviction concerns the submitting of fake expenses invoices for nine framed landscape photographs, costing £700, to decorate his office in the town of Builth Wells.

Fining him £1,500 and ordering him to complete 50 hours of community service, the judge, Mr Justice Edis, told the MP in April: “It seems shocking that when confronted with a simple accounting problem you thought to forge documents. That is an extraordinary thing for a man with your position and your background to do.”

Davies declined to speak to the Guardian this week. In a statement on his website, he calls what he did an “administrative error” and said he had not tried to make any financial gain. “I made a technical breach of a complicated accounts process and fell foul of a new law which is unique to members of parliament,” he said. He has invited constituents into his office to view the documentation and the photographs.

If a byelection is triggered it will be a fascinating one. The seat was held by the Lib Dems from 1997 to 2015 until Davies won it. He increased his majority in 2017.

The resurgent Lib Dems will hope to win back the seat but the Brexit party, which swept to victory in Wales at the European elections, has confirmed that it will stand. There are whispers that a Nigel Farage rally is already being planned.

Tom Davies, who will fight the seat for Labour if there is a byelection, said the petition campaign had been a steep learning curve. “But essentially it’s simple. Chris Davies has brought this on himself. We don’t know how many people have signed it but we’re encouraging as many people as we can to go and sign.”

He said Davies should have stepped down himself and saved a lot of money in the process. “He should have had the decency to resign.”

This is the third petition under the Recall of MPs Act 2015 and the first in Wales. The votes will be counted in private at county hall in Llandrindod Wells, on Friday, and the result passed to the Speaker’s office in the Commons. The result is expected Friday afternoon.











