Police officers getting deployed at police headquarters ahead of the Nagpur Municipal Corporation elections in Nagpur on Sunday. PTI Police officers getting deployed at police headquarters ahead of the Nagpur Municipal Corporation elections in Nagpur on Sunday. PTI

As campaigning for the Nagpur Municipal Corporation election drew to a close on Sunday, the ruling BJP was basing its hope of a majority heavily on a high turnout. In his marathon round of public meetings in the city over the past few days, BJP’s main campaigner in the region, Union transport minister Nitin Gadkari, stressed on ensuring a high voter turnout.

Watch what else is in the news

Gadkari has reportedly said that a 75 per cent turnout could mean a BJP victory. The main reason why the Union minister’s thrust remains on a large turnout is the large-scale rebellion the party has faced from its cadre, some of them prominent RSS faces in the city.

The party had expelled over 64 rebels earlier this month. Some RSS leaders, such as Shripad Risaldar and Vishakha Joshi, have even held press conferences to criticise the BJP. Among the unhappy ones are also some prominent faces from the Bajrang Dal, who had resorted to sloganeering at Union Minister Gadkari’s house during the ticket distribution process.

In a big exercise, Gadkari tried to placate discontent party workers by personally talking to them, either by visiting their homes or by inviting them to Gadkari Wada. But nobody knows for sure which way the current is blowing. RSS ideologue M G Vaidya even said that the RSS cadre was never directed to vote “only for the BJP”.

“They are free to take their own call and vote for anyone they deem fit,” Vaidya had said in reaction to the RSS cadre’s discontent. The city is set to witness a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress at 60-70 places in the absence of pre-poll alliances.

Both parties have their committed vote banks in the city. But since the BJP’s vote bank is that of RSS followers, it is necessary for the party that the election sees a high voter turnout. For the Congress, any thing between a 50 and 55 per cent turnout could augur well. For the Bharatiya Janata Party though, rebellion and infighting within the Congress would be supportive factors.

Jayprakash Gupta, a former Nagpur unit Congress chief who had crossed over to BJP ahead of 2014 general elections, said, “I have seen election management closely in both the Congress and the BJP. In the Congress, it is dependent entirely on leaders, whereas the BJP draws its strength from the cadre. In Nagpur, Gadkari and Fadnavis are tall leaders. The booth management by Gadkari is intensive.”

Why 70 per cent voting is a tall order

In the Prabhag system of elections, each Prabhag consists of four wards, and hence four candidates of all main political parties are in the fray. Each voter has to press four buttons. So, for one person to complete the process, at least 90 seconds is the average amount of time estimated. Nagpur has 2,783 booths.

“We have braced up to accommodate 700 voters on each booth, which is about 19.50 lakh voters. Nagpur has a list of 21 lakh voters, of which about 15 per cent are either repetitive or not active on various counts. That comes to around 3 lakh voters.

So, presuming even 60 per cent voting, we will have about 420 voters coming to each booth. With each taking 90 seconds, we will have to have at least 10 hours of continuous voting. Actual voting hours are nine, but are always stretched since all those in queue towards the end have to be allowed to go through. Thus, 60 per cent polling seems achievable. A figure of 70 per cent is too ambitious,” a top official told The Indian Express.

In 2012, the voting percentage was 52 and the BJP had secured 63 seats in the then 145-member House.

📣 The Indian Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@indianexpress) and stay updated with the latest headlines

For all the latest India News, download Indian Express App.