What is a Coronavirus and what similar viruses plagued the earth





First off it is important to understand that a Coronavirus is a group of viruses, not a single virus strain. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) are also Coronaviruses. In humans a Coronavirus usually sits in the respiratory system. The new virus that everyone is so afraid of is called 2019-nCoV.





The virus was identified in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, after people developed pneumonia (Pneumonia is an infection that inflames the air sacs in one or both lungs) without a clear cause and for which existing treatments were not effective. Symptoms include fever, coughing and breathing difficulties, and it can be fatal.





As of 3rd of February 2020, approximately 17,486 cases have been confirmed, but the true number could be much larger.





To have a better understanding, let’s look at similar viruses that have plagued the earth in a chart comparing infected vs deceased.

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As we can see from the graph on day 24 the new 2019-nCoV Coronavirus has the highest numbers of infected amongst other similar viruses.





Out of the 17486 infected around 11,177 are from Hubei province, the epicenter of the virus--





MAINLAND CHINA Cases Deaths Notes Links Hubei province (including Wuhan) 11,177 350 1,223 serious, 478 critical Source Zhejiang province 724 0 48 serious, 12 critical Source Guangdong province 725 0 58 serious, 22 critical Source Henan province 566 2 30 serious, 14 critical Source

MAINLAND CHINA

Cases

Deaths

Notes

Links

Hubei province

(including Wuhan)

11,177

350

1,223 serious, 478 critical

Source

Zhejiang province

724

0

48 serious, 12 critical

Source

Guangdong province

725

0

58 serious, 22 critical

Source

Henan province

566

2

30 serious, 14 critical

Source





Should there be panic?





Unless you live directly in WuHan and the surrounding regions, the risk of contraction is low at this time, according to public health officials at CDC.





While there are a small, but growing number of cases outside of mainland China, they originated from the WuHan region. This was expected by public health authorities around the world.





Transmission on air flights is also very unlikely. Multiple studies found that similar viruses, which spread through droplets from coughing and sneezing like the 2019-nCoV, do not spread significantly on airplanes. While epidemiologists and doctors will typically monitor the health of passengers who sat one or two rows around suspected cases, they are just taking precautions.





Who is at risk of dying?

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According to an article published on January 23rd, when the death toll was at 17, nine of those who died had pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, coronary artery disease and Parkinson’s disease. Eight were in their eighties, two in their seventies, five in their sixties and one man was in his fifties. The youngest woman was 48 and had a pre-existing condition.





Most articles and health officials conclude that those who have pre-existing conditions, or are of age are at risk of death upon contracting the virus.

Anyone cured?

As of February 3rd, 2020, 530 people have recovered from the coronavirus. But do people who have contracted the virus return to full health? Yes. Most people who contract the virus will experience only mild symptoms. These include respiratory problems, coughing and fever. Most people are expected to make a full recovery. Things like antibiotics are designed to kill bacteria, not a virus. So typically doctors can treat the symptoms, but not the virus itself. There’s no vaccine yet.





The issue is that the virus poses a particular risk for elderly people and those with pre-existing problems like diabetes or cancer, or weak immune systems.





How exactly is someone cured?





The same as how you recover from other viruses like the common cold, your body naturally fights it off using antibodies and other parts of the immune system.





Thailand claims that they have ‘cured’ the coronavirus with anti-HIV drug cocktail in 48 hours. Bangkok: A Chinese woman infected with the new coronavirus showed a dramatic improvement after she was treated with a cocktail of antivirals used to treat flu & HIV, Thailand’s health ministry said Sunday. The 71-year-old patient tested negative for the virus 48 hours after Thai doctors administered the combination, doctor Kriengsak Attipornwanich said during the ministry’s daily press meeting.





In short, this combination of drugs act inside and outside the infected cells. One inhibits the virus from assembling itself inside the cell (lopinavir), and the other works outside the cell to inhibit newly formed viruses from breaking free and spreading (oseltamivir).





Easy explanation





Your cells are like already completed Lego models, and the virus is a smaller model equipped with a piece remover to cannibalize the completed models for parts. The drug is like super glue on the working ends of the piece remover so it can’t be used anymore.

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Viruses are so effective because they use your own cells against you. One of their primary functions is taking over your cells and then using them as a factory to make more viruses. HIV medications prevent it from doing that.





I do not see these drugs as a long-term solution, but rather as a possible treatment method for people who are already infected until a proper vaccine is developed and distributed to provide large-scale resistance against this virus (or until containment efforts control the spread of the virus to the point where it effectively “dies off”, like what happened with SARS).





Vaccine analysis (vs. swine flu)





In April 2009, the swine flu (commonly known as H1N1 FLU), plagued the earth, and humanity was in a very similar situation. LONDON (Reuters) - At least one in five people worldwide were infected with swine flu during the first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, an international research group said on Friday, but the death rate was just 0.02 percent, when compared to the new coronavirus whose death rate is 2.07%.

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On september 15, 2009, 5 months after the outbreak, the vaccine was developed. In 2011, a study from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network estimated the overall effectiveness of all pandemic H1N1 vaccines at 56%. A CDC study released 28 January 2013, estimated that the Pandemic H1N1 vaccine saved roughly 300 lives and prevented about 1 million illnesses in the US.





Swine flu (H1N1) vaccine shot price - $2.10 (We can assume a 2019-nCoV single shot price will be similar to a H1N1 vaccine shot).

According to the WHO (6 August 2009) / GENEVA - It take approximately five to six months for the first supplies of approved vaccine to become available once a new strain of influenza virus with pandemic potential is identified and isolated.





Vs. Spanish Flu

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The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 -- December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1n! Influenza virus. It infected 500 million people around the world, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million (three to five percent of the Earth’s population at the time), making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.





How was it cured?





After the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, new cases dropped abruptly - almost to nothing after the peak in the second wave. In Philadelphia, for example, 4,597 people died in the week ending 16 October, but by 11 November, influenza had almost completely disappeared from the city. One explanation for the rapid decline of the lethality of the disease is that doctors got better at preventing and treating the pneumonia that developed after the victims had contracted the virus; but John Barry stated in his book that researchers have found no evidence to support this.





Another theory holds that the 1918 virus mutated extremely rapidly to a less lethal strain. This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out.





Is China covering up the number of cases?





There is no way to know at this time. The Chinese government does not have a good track record of transparency during outbreaks, and it is currently not releasing detailed case and contact data to international authorities.





While suppression of data is certainly possible, it is important to remember that in the first few weeks of epidemics, case totals are almost always significant under-counts. This is especially true for this epidemic for a number of reasons:





The imposition of large-scale quarantine is likely exacerbating the difficulties in counting cases, as these policies typically cause panics, during which residents flee, hide, or overwhelm the clinical facilities in the region -- where most testing and case counting occur. It is also currently flu season, and clinicians may have trouble telling the difference between 2019-nCoV symptoms and those from influenza, rhinovirus, or other pneumonia-causing conditions. This is a reason why many suspected cases may test negative for 2019-nCoV in the lab. The incubation period for 2019-nCoV is usually around 14 days. While there is no evidence that a person can infect others before they start showing symptoms, this longer incubation time frame does delay the identification of cases. Confirming a 2019-nCoV case is currently neither fast nor easy. Chinese and American scientists had to develop new assays and reagents (in layman’s terms, a new lab test) to detect the virus in humans. While it was impressive how fast this test was developed (CDC took less than 24 hours), currently only a single lab in China (in Wuhan) and the CDC in Atlanta can run the tests safely. However, CDC has stated they are rapidly manufacturing everything needed for the new tests, and they will soon start shipping them to numerous high-priority labs.





Prevention, staying safe.





What are the symptoms of the virus? Answer -- what we currently know is that it typically causes flu-like symptoms including a fever, cough and congestion. Some patients -- particularly the elderly and others with other chronic health conditions -- develop a severe form of pneumonia.





How does the virus transmit? Do I need a N95 respirator instead of a face-mask? Answer -- although we know that the virus is capable of human-to-human transmission, the exact method of transmission is not well understood. It is most likely spread through droplets (sneezing and coughing), and there is no evidence it is airborne. However, as more information becomes available, this may change.





N95 masks or respirators may offer better protection to the public than face-masks or no mask at all but evidence is limited. However, we know that hand-washing with soap and water, along with other everyday measures, are the best ways to prevent the spread of the virus. Masks are currently recommended only for those caring for suspected or confirmed cases.



