Ridiculous as it may seem, the current conflict between Iran and the United States by now just resembles a joke. But for us Europeans there is still plenty to be afraid of.

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One of my favorite kinds of jokes are the American medical jokes about "first the bad news, then the good news" – here is a slightly tasteless one. After his wife had undergone a long and risky operation, the husband approaches the doctor and inquires about the outcome. The doctor begins: "Your wife survived; she will probably live longer than you. But there are some complications: she will no longer be able to control her anal muscles, so shit will drift continuously out of her anus. There will also be a continuous flow of a bad-smelling yellow jelly from her vagina, so any sex is out. Plus her mouth will malfunction and food will be falling out of it…" Noticing the growing expression of panic on the husband’s face, the doctor taps him friendly on the shoulder and smiles: "Don’t worry, I was just joking! Everything is OK — she died during the operation."

My good friend from Iran Kamran Baradaran wrote me a couple of days ago, after Iran and the US avoided full war and the tension was (temporarily) defused, that this joke provides a very good description of the present situation. First there was a succession of bad news which qualified the successful operation (the killing of Suleimani): scepticism of the US allies about the act; furious crowds on anti-American protests; threat of the Iranian revenge which may trigger a large-scale war… Then a (fragile and temporary) balance was restored, but this balance sounds more like the final punchline of our joke: "Don’t worry, the crisis was just a joke! Everything is OK — nothing is resolved, we are back at the mortifying geopolitical games which cause a permanent crisis…"

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It looked as if the killing of Suleimani served both sides: in Iran it led to a popular mobilization and a triumphant display of unity that momentarily obliterated internal struggles; for the US, it seemed to open the path towards a war that would eliminate the Iranian threat. Now we see that nobody really wanted a war.

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First, Iran – where is it now? The shooting-down of the Ukrainian plane led to the return of popular unrest which now threatens the very foundations of the Khomeiny revolution – its basic legitimacy, not just the hard-liners’ predominance, is openly questioned. The use of the tension with the US as a means to mobilize the population in support of the regime thus backfired, the regime is more in peril than ever. The unforeseeable shooting-down of the Ukrainian plane thus made Trump’s strategy work: Trump doesn't have to start a war against Iran since it looks that Iran is drowning in its own problems…

However, Trump’s "successes" are part of his dangerous geopolitical game: whatever the final result of the Iranian crisis, the US are not only fast losing its grip on Iraq but are also gradually pushed out of much of the Middle East region. The fake "solution" of the crisis with Kurds in Syria - Turkey and Russia imposing peace so that each one controls its own side – is now repeated in Libya, and in both cases the US silently withdrew from playing an active role. Russia and Turkey are now in an ideal position to exert pressure on Europe: the two countries control the oil supply to Europe, as well as the flow of refugees, so that they can use both as a means to blackmail Europe.

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But what if Trump wants this? There are ominous signs which point to a YES as the answer. Trump is now threatening to move the customs war from China to EU, and it is clear that the hatred of a strong EU is what unites Trump, Russia, and Turkey. So which Europe bothers Trump, Putin, Erdogan, as well as the European populists? It is the Europe of transnational unity, the Europe vaguely aware that, in order to cope with the challenges of our moment, we should move beyond the constraints of nation-states; the Europe which also desperately strives to somehow remain faithful to the old Enlightenment motto of solidarity with victims, the Europe aware of the fact that humanity is today One, that we are all on the same boat (or, as we say, on the same Spaceship Earth), so that other’s misery is also our problem. Europe lies in the great pincers between America on the one side and Russia on the other who both want to dismember it: both Trump and Putin support Brexit, they support euro-sceptics in every corner, from Poland to Italy.

The big loser of the ongoing Middle East crisis is thus Europe, much more than the US.