The Polish government intends to hold a presidential election in May, despite a growing chorus of voices saying that doing so amid a pandemic would be unfair, undemocratic and potentially dangerous.

Based on current polling, current president Andrzej Duda, an ally of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, would be likely to gain more than 50% of the vote and thus win a second term in office without requiring a second round of voting.

Incumbent politicians around the globe are receiving a boost in the polls during the uncertainty of coronavirus, as people seek stability during the crisis. Critics say the Polish government wants to capitalise on this rather than have a riskier election later on, when the public health and economic fallout from coronavirus could offer a very different backdrop.

Poland currently has 2,420 confirmed cases of coronavirus and has seen 36 deaths. The country implemented some of the earliest lockdown measures in Europe, closing its airports and land borders more than two weeks ago, and the government hopes these strict measures could help avoid the exponential growth phase of the epidemic seen in western Europe.

However, even as the lockdown measures have become progressively stricter in recent weeks, authorities have insisted that elections on 10 May go ahead. The rightwing PiS narrowly won a general election last autumn, but lost control of the upper house of parliament. Controlling the presidency is key for the party to avoid political deadlock.

Even as the government has introduced more restrictions on citizens’ movement, forbidding them to leave the house except for essential business, it has refrained from officially declaring a state of emergency or a state of natural disaster, both of which require elections to be postponed.

Jarosław Kaczyński, the powerful PiS chairman, has said in interviews that the vote must go ahead. In a late-night amendment to a parliamentary bill over the weekend, the government introduced a rule that senior citizens or those in quarantine could submit postal votes. Another amendment could soon be under consideration that would allow the entire public to vote by post.

On Saturday, more than 40 NGOs called on the prime minister to introduce a state of natural disaster and postpone the vote. If the vote went ahead, “the election result would very likely not reflect the real preferences of voters, and the president’s legitimacy to hold office in such conditions would be extremely weak”, said the appeal. More than 500 doctors and medical professors have also signed an appeal calling on the vote to be postponed on the grounds that it would cause a health risk for those taking part.

On Sunday, the candidate from the centre-right Civic Platform party, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, said that if the vote went ahead, the government would be responsible for any citizens who fell ill, and said she was suspending her campaign. Other candidates have not followed suit, but with public appearances or rallies impossible due to coronavirus, and political campaigning and point-scoring irresponsible during an epidemic, it is hard to see how any vote could be fair.

Duda himself has hinted that the election could yet be moved: “If it did happen that the epidemic was raging … then in that situation, the election date could turn out to be unsustainable, but I am counting on it that we will be able to calmly hold these elections,” he told state-run television over the weekend.

As coronavirus wreaks havoc with the fabric of everyday life across the globe, a number of governments are wrestling with dilemmas of whether or not to go ahead with elections. On 15 March, both France and Germany’s Bavaria held local elections amid much criticism, with many believing the vote contributed to the spread of the virus. The second round of French elections, scheduled for 22 March, was cancelled.

A number of upcoming votes have been postponed due to coronavirus, including a presidential election in Bolivia scheduled for May and an Ethiopian general election in August. However, South Korea will push ahead with a general election planned for 15 April, promising that all 14,000 polling stations will be disinfected and equipped with hand sanitiser, and that patients with coronavirus can vote from hospital.