The poll of 1401 voters, taken from October 23 to 26, found the Coalition's primary vote languishing at 39 per cent, compared with almost 45 per cent at the 2010 election. But both sides believe voters are yet to properly focus, with the contest expected to tighten over the next four weeks. Despite the strong two-party-preferred result for the opposition, Labor's performance has also been lacklustre, with a primary vote of just 37 per cent. Support for both sides appears to have been bleeding elsewhere, with the Greens on a primary vote at 17 per cent, compared with 11 per cent at the last election; the Palmer United Party, which will not field candidates in the lower house, on 2 per cent; and other minor parties and independents on 7 per cent. But with the government clinging to power by the barest of margins in the Parliament, the extent to which an "Abbott factor" might leech votes from the state government is also being debated. Coalition MPs are jittery, particularly following a decision by the Abbott government this week to hit motorists with higher petrol taxes 19 days before polling day.

Premier Denis Napthine on Wednesday said he had a "robust" conversation with Prime Minister Tony Abbott during which he expressed his concern about the impact of the petrol price rise on families and businesses. Asked why he was lagging in the polls, Dr Napthine said voters had only just started to focus, and would recognise the government's record of strong economic management. "What we've seen is a large undecided vote and people making up their minds as they're focusing, at the end of the footy season, focusing on the real issues for this election," Dr Napthine said. "I think the people of Victoria know the difference between federal issues and state issues." Despite the worrying two-party-preferred result for the Coalition, the poll found Dr Napthine leading Labor's Daniel Andrews 45 per cent to 36 per cent as preferred premier, suggesting he remains a relatively popular leader. But Labor is ahead on issues that matter most to the public. Health and hospitals, education and jobs were once again ranked as the top three of eight issues by voters, ahead of financial management, public transport, law and order, the environment and roads.

In a worrying sign for the government, 53 per cent said Labor was best equipped to manage health, compared with 33 per cent for the Coalition. Labor was also ranked ahead of the Coalition 56 per cent to 32 per cent as the party best able to manage education, employment (48% to 38%), public transport (49% to 37%) and the environment (56% to 28%). The Coalition was ranked ahead of Labor on only three of eight issues. It led Labor 56 per cent to 29 per cent on financial management, 50% to 34% on law and order and 50% to 36% for roads. The government remains hopeful Victoria's strong financial position and AAA-rated budget will provide it with an advantage over Labor and has focused its attacks on the opposition's financial management credentials. Labor has focused on health and education, announcing a $1.3 billion package for schools and training at its campaign launch in Geelong last Sunday.