Polls show New Jersey Republican Senate nominee Bob Hugin faces tough odds in his bid to unseat Sen. Robert Menendez (D) on Tuesday, but Hugin believes he has one factor on his side: the weather.

“It’s raining out, right? That’s Republican weather,” Hugin said at an event in Ocean County on Monday, according to New Jersey Globe, a political reporting site.

“These other guys are going to stay at home; we’re going to make it happen,” he told supporters, adding: “God’s always looking out for us.”

Blustery weather is expected in much of the Northeast on Tuesday, with heavy rain and thunderstorms expected in parts of New Jersey.

Research suggests that Hugin has good reason to hope for inclement weather: A group of researchers in 2007 found that rain reduced voter turnout by nearly one percent per inch in presidential elections, with bad weather “shown to benefit the Republican party’s vote share.”

The study did not examine the effect on midterm races, however. And early voting, which in New Jersey has already more than doubled the figures for all of 2014, could lessen the impact of Tuesday’s cloudy skies on the final result — a potential silver lining for Menendez.