Headed into the 2015 NHL Draft, there were two different Sebastian Aho’s, from two separate countries, that were eligible to be taken by NHL teams. One of them, a defenseman from Sweden, had been eligible for the 2014 NHL Draft, but wasn’t selected due to concerns over his size, while the other, a forward from Finland, was in his first year of draft eligibility.

Only one Aho was selected the weekend of June 26th, though both deserved to hear their names called by an NHL team. The Carolina Hurricanes selected the Finnish forward 35th overall after Aho posted 11 points in 27 games while playing in Finland’s professional league.

@shane1342o I could see a middle of the line up scorer who doesn't need to be sheltered — Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) June 26, 2015

Not one NHL team took a risk on the defenseman from Sweden despite the fact that Aho spent his second straight year in Sweden’s top professional league playing against men. The young Swede also put up four points in seven games at the World Junior Championships, which tied him for fifth in points per game among defensemen at that tournament.

The scouting reports on Aho don’t reveal many weaknesses in his game besides his size. According to Future Considerations (an independent scouting service), the young defenseman “is undersized, but very quick and mobile… He handles the puck well with a soft pair of hands and [has] the ability to protect the puck from pressure… Concerns are that he doesn’t always make the right play defensively, due to his offensive bent, and that he needs to add some size and strength to be more effective in his zone, especially on the walls”.

Despite his smaller stature, it is also noted that Aho “makes smart plays using positioning and a quick stick to get the puck out of the D-zone”, and that “his biggest asset is his hockey sense and smarts”.

If size (and to a lesser extent, defensive ability) truly is the only deterrent keeping teams away from the Swedish defenseman, then NHL front offices are simply shortchanging themselves. This isn’t exactly new news, as NHL teams have long had a strange obsession with size, and shown staggering incompetency at the draft tables.

What makes the case of Aho even stranger is that there is a perfect example of someone almost identical to him succeeding in the NHL today.

That someone would be fellow Swede Tobias Enstrom,who stands at the same height as Aho (5’10”) and weighs a mere 20 pounds more. Both defenseman play a high speed, intelligent game and utilize their skill while on the ice in order to negate any defensive issues caused by their size.

The similarities don’t stop there. Enstrom also played in Sweden’s top professional league as a teenager, suiting up for Modo Hockey Club from 2002-2007 (ages 18-22) before coming over to North America to play for the Atlanta Thrashers, who drafted him in the eigth round at the 2003 NHL Entry Draft.

The main difference between Aho and Enstrom is that the younger defenseman has actually performed better than Enstrom did, even in international contests.

Player Sebastian Aho Tobias Enstrom Age 18 P/G in SHL 0.24 (5 PTS in 21 GP) 0.14 (6 PTS in 42 GP) Age 18 P/G in WJC N/A 0.33 (2 PTS in 6 GP) Age 19 P/G in SHL 0.22 (9 PTS in 41 GP) 0.15 (5 PTS in 33 GP) Age 19 P/G in WJC 0.57 (4 PTS in 7 GP) 0.33 (2 PTS in 6 GP)

Given that they have similar playing styles, one would think that Enstrom’s success in the NHL would lead to at least one general manager taking a risk on Aho, especially in the later rounds of the draft, when the chances of getting an NHL player drop dramatically.

A 20% chance at finding the next Enstrom in the seventh round of the draft would make Aho a great value pick, and the actual chances of the young Swede to become a player of equal caliber to his elder countryman are most likely higher than 20%, given that the underrated defenseman has put up better point totals while playing in the same league as the current NHL defender.

The Projection Project, a website that builds statistical cohorts based on points production and height in order to calculate a probability of a player reaching the NHL, initially found that Aho had a 25% chance of making the NHL, though they made adjustments to the model and found that his true NHL probability most likely sat at 33% (which made him their 49th-ranked prospect).

@LynseyStepan Euro's seem to get punished by NHLE's. He is likely higher then his projection suggests. Not many euro's have made our lists — TheProjectionProject (@HockeyProjProj) June 23, 2015

If you figure that Aho has a good chance of becoming the same player that Tobias Enstrom has been, then you have to ask yourself: just how good has Enstrom been?

Since joining the league, Enstrom has played in 544 games and averaged half a point per game for a total of 272 points. Out of defenders who played at least 5000 minutes at 5 on 5 from 2007-2015, the veteran ranks 34th out of 141 defenders in points per 60 minutes of ice time.

The Swede hasn’t been all offense, either, as his relative score adjusted SAT% is positive, as is his scoring chances for percentage. Overall, Enstrom has been a top four option for the Thrashers/Jets, which is an absolute steal for someone taken in the eighth round of the Draft.

There’s no reason to believe that Aho won’t be able to control possession at the NHL level, either. Based on video tracking of the games he played at the WJC, there’s reason to believe that the young Swede actually drives possession and controls the pace of play at 5-on-5.

Ya, this guy. Numbers from the #wjhc #nhldraft -drives possession and strong for a smaller body. pic.twitter.com/oiRB7lwRWC — Christopher Boucher (@Chris_LogiQ) June 27, 2015

Quick side note: Christopher Boucher works for SportLogiQ, a company that tracks hockey statistics that go much more in depth than the ones that can be found in the NHL play-by-play files. For more on what they do and how they do it, visit their official website.

When the numbers show that a player’s skill results in a positive net impact, despite any flaws that a smaller stature may bring, it’s not a bad idea to take a flyer on said player.

The young Swedish defenseman has shown time and time again that he has the skills to play at the NHL level, whether it be his scouting reports, statistics taken from video scouting, or his numerical projections. History also gives us a clear cut example of what type of player Aho could become, and how valuable that type of player could be to a team, especially when acquired cheap.

There really is no valid reason as to why Aho hasn’t been given a shot by an NHL team, and if he continues to play as well as he has over the past several years, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see someone take a chance on the young defender.

If he lives up to his potential, 29 other teams will be regretting not nabbing the Swedish blueliner when they had the chance.