Outside of the Jason Kidd saga, the Brooklyn Nets experienced a relatively quiet offseason in terms of personnel changes. Their lack of cap flexibility made it difficult for them to add any impactful players and even retain their own free agents. The loss of two key contributors and the injury-riddled histories of their star players could cause the Nets to struggle to make the 2015 playoffs.

Where Did They Finish?

After recovering from a dismal 11-21 start to win 33 of their last 50 games, the Nets won a tight 7-game series against the Toronto Raptors to make it to the second round of the playoffs. Their second round exit was surely not what management had envisioned when it assembled the $100 million roster. While the Nets won five fewer games in the regular season than the year before, the first round victory represented an improvement from the year before when the Nets were ousted in round one.

Kidd helped the Nets turn around their season by moving Paul Pierce to the 4 and giving more minutes to journeyman guard Shaun Livingston. The move helped Pierce increase his offensive output because he was able to utilize his quickness advantage over opposing frontcourt players. Furthermore, playing Pierce in the frontcourt and giving Livingston more minutes improved the Nets defensive length and speed. Their newfound ability to switch liberally made it hard for opponents to create mismatches.

What Happened This Offseason?

The major story of the Nets offseason occurred when Jason Kidd’s failed power grab resulted in his leaving Brooklyn to become the coach of the Milwaukee Bucks. Unfortunately for the Nets, he wasn’t the only person who left, as Pierce and Livingston both bolted for teams that seem to have a better shot to compete for a championship.

Pierce and Livingston were the key players to the identity change that turned the team’s season around. Their net rating numbers from last season illustrate their importance to the team, as they each posted the best net rating on the team behind only franchise point guard Deron Williams. Losing Pierce and Livingston makes the Nets roster look a lot more similar to what it looked like in 2012-13 than to what it did last season.

How Will They Do Next Year?

The 12-13 Nets took advantage of the league’s third easiest schedule to win 49 games en route to the 4-seed in the Eastern Conference. Their success was powered by an offense that was ranked eighth in the league because of two main factors: offensive rebounding and free throw attempts. The Nets undoubtedly have more accomplished role players on the roster for the upcoming season than they did in 2012-13. However, the 12-13 roster included players who played complementary roles to the stars of the team, particularly in the frontcourt.

For instance, Reggie Evans led the league in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage in 12-13, which served both to bolster the offense and mitigate the effect of Lopez’s subpar rebounding at the Center position. Kris Humphries played a similar role by rebounding at a high rate off the bench. Andray Blatche also contributed by grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds and by getting to the free throw line at a steady rate. The role players on this year’s roster are not equipped to contribute similarly.

At his advanced age, Kevin Garnett is not able to provide the same constant energy on the glass as Evans and Mason Plumlee was not the same caliber of rebounder in his rookie year as Evans or Humphries. The changes in the frontcourt explain the Nets decline from 10th in the league in total rebound rate in 2012-13 to 29th last season.

A major reason for the Nets success in 2012-13 was the sustained health of their star players. The ability of the role players to play a complementary role will be less important if the top players are not on the court. Joe Johnson does not have much of an injury history but the same cannot be said about Deron Williams or Brook Lopez. Here are their last three seasons in terms of games and minutes played and how those numbers translated to Nets victories.

Deron Williams

Games Minutes Wins 2011-12* 68 2484 27 2012-13 78 2842 49 2013-14 64 2059 44 Average 70 2462 40

Brook Lopez

Games Minutes Wins 2011-12* 6 169 27 2012-13 74 2253 49 2013-14 17 533 44 Average 32 985 40

*Extrapolated To Full Regular Season Because Of Lockout

It is difficult to expect Williams and Lopez to stay as healthy as they were in that 12-13 season considering Williams’ long injury history with the Nets and the struggles of big men with repeated foot injuries. If either Williams or Lopez is forced to miss a significant amount of time, it is hard to envision a scenario where new coach Lionel Hollins gets the Nets to improve their win total from last season.

In conclusion, Pierce and Livingston were the key players that allowed the Nets to persevere through injuries and make the playoffs last season. Losing them means that the Nets must bank on the sustained health of their two star players in order to repeat their 49-win season from 2012-13. Even if they both manage to remain fully healthy, they still might not mesh with the players surrounding them as well as they did two seasons ago.

Prediction: Potential injury issues, a questionable supporting cast, a thinner roster, and a tougher conference will all combine to cause the Nets to finish somewhere between 8th and 10th in the East.