It’s a familiar argument. Immigration means employers are never short of labour, meaning they can get away with paying rock-bottom wages. Brexit will make it harder for employers to find workers from overseas, forcing them to attract British workers with higher wages.

Last week, the Government released its monthly estimates of earnings. While earnings fell in real terms for most workers, weekly pay in the agricultural sector has risen.

Meanwhile, the National Farmers’ Union’s monthly labour survey suggests that the number of returning seasonal workers has almost halved. Some commentators have been quick to argue that this drop in seasonal workers has forced employers into giving farm labourers a pay rise.

Is this a sign that Brexit is pushing wages up?

Average agricultural wages have risen in real terms…

It’s true that, when it comes to falling wages, average agricultural wages have bucked the trend. Last week’s Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey revealed that average earnings in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry had risen by £10 a week in real terms when compared to the previous September.

“Average” is the key word here. Unite, which represents workers in a range of sectors, reports very low wages among its members in the agricultural industry. Even if average wages rise, many agricultural workers would still be badly paid. With significant numbers of workers not even being paid the minimum wage, rising average wages are unlikely to affect those who are most in need of a pay rise.

…but wage growth slowed after the referendum

Agricultural wages grew in 2017 – just like they did in 2016. And in 2015. That’s right, wages in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry were already on the up when Brexit was no more than a twinkle in Boris Johnson’s eye.

In fact, wage growth in the industry has been slower since the EU referendum. Even that meagre growth may be partly down to an increase in the minimum wage.

And that’s not the worst of it. Agricultural workers should be enjoying an extra £20 a week in spending power. But half of that’s been wiped away by rising prices.

Any ideas what’s been causing prices to rise?

Yes, you guessed it – Brexit.