The Wentworth byelection has almost certainly resulted in Scott Morrison governing with a minority.

Many commentators will view this through the prism of instability, potential chaos and uncertainty. That can be the case, it may even sell newspapers but it doesn’t necessarily mean chaos will happen.



Having been in two hung parliaments and another with a majority of one, half of my 22 years as an MP were spent around governments who did not have a convincing majority.

All parliaments are different because of the personalities involved and it will be the conduct of those personalities which will define success or failure. The attitude of the key players to their changed circumstances, the government, the opposition and the cross benchers will be paramount.



So what happens in a minority government? How will it work?



The day to day workings of the House of Representatives will not change. Legislation is introduced, debated, amended and passed or rejected. Obviously in a minority government debate becomes more important.



The most significant change is that the Executive of Government loses the ability to dictate the terms to the the House of Representatives that majority delivers, and in many cases the diminished dominance can be hard for leaders to accept. Negotiating skills with non-government members will be required to pass legislation, logical argument overshadows pecking order position, regard for other views is also required ... in other words, people skills.



Julia Gillard in the 2010 minority government struggled for a short time to adjust to being the prime minister but not having total charge over the House. She quickly adapted to the new environment and had the negotiating skills to work in that circumstance. The New South Wales premier back in my first hung parliament in 1991, Nick Greiner, always struggled to deal with not having a majority. It was the continued pursuit of a majority rather than just doing the policy work that eventually lead to his downfall as premier.



So how will the Morrison government work with the new balance in the parliament? Do the main players have the skills to deliver policy using reasoned argument rather than the brute force of numbers?



Scott Morrison does have the capacity to negotiate. That has been demonstrated with some of the Governments successes in the Senate when he was Treasurer where minority situation is the norm.



Mathias Cormannis one of the government’s best negotiators and clearly has the capacity to work in an environment where the numbers can be suspect on all legislation.



I worked with the deputy prime minister, Michael McCormack, on the Regional Australia Committee. Even though he is relatively new to a leadership role, he has a calm demeanor and a willingness to talk through issues rather than bully his way through an argument. What has been portrayed by some as a weakness may not be in the changed landscape .



With the possible exception of Bob Katter, who will push his own party’s future above the nation’s future, the crossbench is made up of highly intelligent individuals who are in the building for the right reasons . Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie, Adam Bandt and Rebekha Sharkie have all displayed the capacity to deal with complex issues and will not have any problems in their new role. In fact I don’t think they will act any differently to the way they have in the past.

Kerryn Phelps, the new chum, displays all the ingredients of being able to work well on the cross bench .



If the government is serious about serious issues I don’t think they will have major problems regarding no confidence motions in the House. Their downfall is and always has been internal, the constant diversionary tactics from the extreme right of the party.

The chaos will not come from the independents, nor the hung nature of the parliament. If Morrison can not overcome the massive divisions in his own camp the crossbench will be the least of his problems. Leadership is not something that comes with numbers and games, it comes from a genuine desire to do good for the community. The prime minister is yet to display this quality.

