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To: Interested Parties From: GBA Strategies Date: July 26, 2018

O’Connor’s Momentum Continues in OH-12 Special; Race Now a Toss-up

Danny O’Connor continues to narrow the gap against Troy Balderson in the special election for Ohio’s 12

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Congressional District. With less than two weeks to go, O’Connor now trails by just two points—continuing a trend that has brought this race to a dead heat since paid communications began last month. In addition, the “enthusiasm gap” that marked previous polling here continues to favor Democrats. Voters who express any real interest in voting g ive O’Connor the edge, providing him with a boost in the face of millions of dollars of negative ads from DC special interests.

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O’Connor now only trails Balderson by two points.

O’Connor has narrowed the race to a 45 – 48 percent margin after trailing by five points just two weeks earlier and seven points in June.

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Balderson has been stuck at 48 percent this entire campaign, despite millions of dollars attacking O’Connor in mail and television for well over a month.