TORONTO

It was Winston Churchill who described Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”

You might say the same thing of Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown.

His stunningly successful leadership campaign was viewed by many Progressive Conservative faithful as a coup. Brown shocked the party to its true Tory blue Stanfield Y-fronts, selling more than 40,000 memberships for a party that was wobbling on the brink of extinction after the 2014 election debacle. Before Brown came along, the party had fewer than 10,000 paid members. He did that by reaching out to minority groups that are not traditionally PC supporters.

While it brought about a much-needed party rejuvenation, it has also raised questions about just who Patrick Brown is and his support for social conservative causes.

Brown leaped from the backbenches of Stephen Harper’s government to the leadership of the provincial party. In doing so, he defeated Christine Elliott, who was not just a beloved long-time MPP, but also a political force to be reckoned with. As the widow of former federal finance minister Jim Flaherty, Elliott commanded huge support and respect within the PCs.

Many of those people were alienated in the power shift.

Brown’s now caught in an uproar over a letter that went out under his name during the Scarborough Rouge-River byelection. In the letter, Brown said he would “scrap” the controversial sex-ed curriculum that was introduced into classrooms last September.

Days after it went out, Brown backed away from the letter, and reaffirmed his support for the LGBT community.

“I’ve never said you shouldn’t have any sex education in the curriculum,” he told me afterwards.

“I felt that letter went too far. I was worried that I’d be winning votes on a false pretence.”

Since then, reports suggest his chief of staff, Nicolas Pappalardo, was in discussions with social conservative groups in the riding prior to the letter being released.

So who is Patrick Brown? What makes him tick?

Long-time Tory insiders say his party heroes are from the centre of the Conservative spectrum — notably former prime minister Brian Mulroney and Jean Charest, a federal Tory who became a Liberal Quebec premier.

“Is he a social conservative? No,” one source told me.

“As premier, will he govern as a social conservative? No,” the source said.

“Will he pander to socially conservative members of his caucus and not be willing to slap them down as hard as he should when they helped get him elected? That remains to be seen.”

Brown has to perform a balancing act between those in caucus who are social conservatives and those whose beliefs are more in line with the traditional Progressive Conservative wing of the party.

For the past two years, he’s led a PC contingent in Toronto’s Pride parade.

Friends and foes alike agree: Brown is fiercely loyal — a prized quality in politics.

“If you’re Paddy’s friend, you’re Paddy’s friend forever,” one person told me. “He’ll do anything to help you.”

While Brown does have seasoned veterans such as Walied Soliman advising him, many I spoke to said he needs more gravitas in his office.

One person described his staff as the “youth wing of the party.”

What still rankles with some long-time Tories is the way he came to Queen’s Park, saying the party needed top-to-bottom changes.

Former leader Tim Hudak was relegated to a second row seat in the legislature — a humiliating demotion. At a recent event, Brown lavishly praised former premier Bill Davis while ignoring Mike Harris — who was in the room. In 1995, Harris swept the party from third-party obscurity to government.

Davis left politics more than 30 years ago.

Many of Harris’s former colleagues and some of his MPPs were in the room too and noted the snub.

Party faithful now say it’s time to heal the rifts within the PCs. They have two years to the next election — and in politics, that’s a lifetime.

What they agree on is that Brown is a remarkable organizer.

He’s won all three byelections called on his watch: His own riding of Simcoe North, Whitby-Oshawa and now Scarborough-Rouge River. While Simcoe North was solidly Tory, the Liberals threw major resources into Whitby-Oshawa, including a visit from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Scarborough-Rouge River was a major coup that insiders give credit to Brown for winning.

Can he survive this sex-ed flip-flop? Is he ready for prime time?

Can he define himself before his foes do it for him?

And will the real Patrick Brown stand up?

A BRIEF HISTORY OF POLITICAL BLOOPERS

In 1981, former Ontario premier Bill Davis enraged the province by purchasing a $10.6-million Challenger jet. Even though the plane was customized so it could also be used as an air ambulance, Davis was forced to trade in the jet and purchase two water bombers instead. He still won the election that year.

Not so popular was Davis’s move to provide full funding for Catholic schools. His controversial move, just after he retired and before the 1985 election, has been an albatross around the PC party’s neck ever since and was largely responsible for handing the election to David Peterson and the Liberals that year.

Speaking of religious funding, former PC leader John Tory’s pledge to fund faith-based schools was largely responsible for him losing the 2007 election. Tory — a Davis protege — made the controversial pledge after he promised his main leadership rival, Jim Flaherty, he’d do so.

Former Tory leader Tim Hudak’s Waterloo was his promise to cut 100,000 civil service jobs. Despite explaining it would be done by attrition, voters rejected his platform and gave Kathleen Wynne a surprise majority government.

Ernie Eves managed through one of the province’s toughest years in 2003. He was criticized for taking an Arizona vacation while Toronto struggled through the SARS crisis. He lashed out at a reporter who suggested he should have stayed home. “Are you somehow suggesting that if I’d been hunting for Easter eggs on Sunday in Toronto, that there wouldn’t have been the World Health Organization advisory?” Eves snapped. He was defeated by Dalton McGuinty later that year.

The gas plant scandal: Observers agree it was the $1-billion cancellation of two power plants that forced Dalton McGuinty to quit in 2013. The Liberals, however, survived.

cblizzard@postmedia.com

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