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Fellow Canadians were no doubt as gratified as I to learn that federal deficits could end sooner than previously forecast. Given the right conditions, Ottawa could find itself with a balanced budget as early as 2045-46, five years earlier than anticipated.

This is good news. Pierre Trudeau launched the decades-long borrowing spree in the late 1960s, when I was a teenager. With luck, we could return to balance again when I’m barely into my 90s. Kind of gives you something to live for, eh?

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The projection comes with a caveat, naturally. It requires the right circumstances, i.e. decades of stable conditions, free of startling or unexpected events. That’s a tall order, given that, in the history of the world, there’s seldom if ever been a quarter-century unbroken by surprise events.

The fact this year’s prediction shaves five years from last year’s demonstrates its uncertain chances of survival. Given the general lack of stability that marks current international political and financial activities, this year’s Finance Department projection will be lucky to get much past New Year without being overtaken by events. A whole set of new policies are set to take effect — from the last tatters of Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s attempted small business tax reform, to tougher new mortgage rules for homebuyers, to Ontario’s new $15 minimum wage and the potentially enormous ramifications of the sweeping tax plan approved by the U.S. Congress. Analysts have done their best to sort out how all this might impact Canada’s economy, but projections are just projections, and, in any case, Canada’s provincial and federal leaders aren’t famed for their skill at preparing to deal with the unexpected.