Analysts, Investors Worry Comcast Merger Will Be Blocked Given the government's love of mergers and acquisitions in the broadband space over the last decade, Comcast's acquisition of Time Warner Cable initially seemed like a done deal. But as Comcast has taken repeated fire for horrible service and anti-competitive behavior (not to mention what seems like an endless stream of half truths about the merger's benefits), doubts have started to creep in on many fronts. Investors have started to wonder if the deal is going to get approved, and it's been hitting Time Warner Cable's stock pretty hard: quote: Time Warner Cable’s stock has dropped precipitously in recent weeks, falling more than 10% since the end of 2014. At $136.56 per share, its stock is also trading more than 10% below the value of Comcast’s offer, which gives Time Warner Cable shareholders 2.875 shares of Comcast for each share they own. Concerns are mounting that the Federal Communications Commission or the Justice Department could block the merger outright or that the FCC could try to get major concessions out of Comcast to approve it. If it does the latter, some analysts think that Comcast might simply walk away. Similarly analysts like BTIG's Richard Greenfield have noted it's quote: "After the Comcast-Time Warner Cable deal was announced, it seemed a forgone conclusion to us and the investment community that regulators would take the local approach--leading to the approval of the transaction with an array of strict, but not onerous conditions in a consent decree," Greenfield wrote. "However, a populist groundswell in favor of net neutrality emerged last summer, along with media/technology industry and press noise surrounding net neutrality, peering/interconnection issues and general opposition to the Comcast-Time Warner Cable transaction has brought a whole new level of scrutiny." It's entirely possible the FCC could apply some meaningful conditions, but it's also entirely possible the FCC argues that a larger Comcast isn't good for anybody other than Comcast. The merger has seen particularly heated review in New York State, which just passed a new law requiring that mergers must serve the public interest. Comcast, historically awful customer service in tow, has had a hard time selling the merger as a boon to users.Less scrutinized for some reason has been AT&T's proposed acquisition of DirecTV, despite the fact that that deal would eliminate one of AT&T (and Comcast's) direct pay TV competitors in a sector that already struggles with price competition. Similarly analysts like BTIG's Richard Greenfield have noted it's not looking great for the Philadelphia-based cable giant It's entirely possible the FCC could apply some meaningful conditions, but it's also entirely possible the FCC argues that a larger Comcast isn't good for anybody other than Comcast. The merger has seen particularly heated review in New York State, which just passed a new law requiring that mergers must serve the public interest. Comcast, historically awful customer service in tow, has had a hard time selling the merger as a boon to users.Less scrutinized for some reason has been AT&T's proposed acquisition of DirecTV, despite the fact thatdeal would eliminate one of AT&T (and Comcast's) direct pay TV competitors in a sector that already struggles with price competition.







News Jump California Defends Its Net Neutrality Law; AT&T's Traffic Up 20% Despite Data Traffic Actually Being Down; + more news Are The Comcast-Charter X1 Talks Dead In The Water?; AT&T May Offer Phone Plans With Ads For Discounts; + more news Europe's Top Court: Net Neutrality Rules Bar Zero Rating; ViacomCBS To Rebrand CBS All Access As Paramount+; + more news Verizon To Buy Reseller TracFone For $7B; 5G Not The Competitive Threat To Cable Many Thought It Would Be; + more news MS.Wants Records From AT&T On $300M Project; Google Fiber Outages In Austin, Houston, Other Texan Cities; + more news States With The Biggest Decreases In Speed; AT&T Hopes You'll Forget Its Fight Against Accurate Maps; + more news AT&T's CEO Has A Familiar $olution To US Broadband Woes; EarthLink Files Suit Against Charter; + more news 5G Doesn't Live Up To Hype, AT&T's 5G Slower Than Its 4G; Cord-Cutting Now In 37% of Broadband Households; + more news FCC Cited False Broadband Data Despite Warnings; ZTE, Huawei Replacement Cost Is $1.87B, But Only $1B Allocated; + more Cogeco Rejects Altice USA's Atlantic Broadband Bid; AT&T Is Astroturfing The FCC In Support Of Trump Attack; + more news ---------------------- this week last week most discussed view:

topics flat nest

mixdup

join:2003-06-28

Atlanta, GA 12.8 1.0

mixdup Member AT&T/DirecTV I don't see how AT&T doesn't get approval. U-Verse is so small in the grand scheme of things that they're not really a meaningful competitor. Plus there's no broadband implications. If Comcast was allowed to get so big, or if Charter is going to be allowed to get so big in the video space, why wouldn't DirecTV/AT&T? political_i

join:2013-11-12 political_i Member Re: AT&T/DirecTV They are a direct competitor to DirecTV therefore eliminating one competitor in the traditional TV sphere. If Comcast Time Warner falls, this will have a domino effect. elefante72

join:2010-12-03

East Amherst, NY elefante72 Member Re: AT&T/DirecTV DTV was bought because of sports (specifically NFL), the TV aspect is nice for their more rural areas where they can supplement wireless or shoddy DSL.



For their DSL areas, they weren't able to get IPTV anyways so this new bundling "may" be less costly.



They can also use DTV to compete in traditional cable areas without having to build a new plant and they could use LTE offload for net pretty easily.



The experience in their dealer network could easily setup an LTE mast..



I agree this is more of a threat than comcast just sucking up more cable plant.



AT&T just spent big on spectrum....You have to know that is going for mixed sat/fixed... mmay149q

Premium Member

join:2009-03-05

Dallas, TX 1 recommendation mmay149q Premium Member Re: AT&T/DirecTV said by elefante72: without having to build a new plant and they could use LTE offload for net pretty easily.



"Oh you watched 25 TV episodes on Netflix? Here's your new $1,000 bill!!! Of course assuming you didn't have to suffer through long buffer times, hahahahahahaha!!"



Anyone else notice the trend here?



"You're using too much data, so we're taking unlimited away, and you'll have to use WiFi from now on unless you wanna pay out the ass for your service, because 2% of people use the most data, but wait, you wanna use WiFi at home? Ok, well here's our 4GLTE plan with a 30GB cap and overages, so you'll have to pay out the ass when you still use too much data on your cell phone and other devices..."



What a joke, neither of these mergers should be allowed period.... Yeah cause that's the crap non-innovative service I want, 30GB's a month with $10 per GB overages..."Oh you watched 25 TV episodes on Netflix? Here's your new $1,000 bill!!! Of course assuming you didn't have to suffer through long buffer times, hahahahahahaha!!"Anyone else notice the trend here?"You're using too much data, so we're taking unlimited away, and you'll have to use WiFi from now on unless you wanna pay out the ass for your service, because 2% of people use the most data, but wait, you wanna use WiFi at home? Ok, well here's our 4GLTE plan with a 30GB cap and overages, so you'll have to pay out the ass when you still use too much data on your cell phone and other devices..."What a joke, neither of these mergers should be allowed period.... Cobra11M

join:2010-12-23

Mineral Wells, TX Cobra11M to mixdup

Member to mixdup

oh please, DirecTV is whats keeping prices low with Dish.., AT&T also owns so much backhaul that the cable companies rent off the fiber lines.. AT&T is the last one that needs DirecTV mmay149q

Premium Member

join:2009-03-05

Dallas, TX 1 recommendation mmay149q to mixdup

Premium Member to mixdup

You must be trolling, or you're on something you're not sharing with the rest of us!



U-verse is small? Yes, AT&T is not however, they could easily do what Verizon did and turn U-verse into a great FTTH service, but that won't happen, I was U-verse Tier 2 for 3 years, they are going to milk that copper for as long as they can, and all the problems that come with it (distance restraints, bonding and grounding issues, some lines being so old they aren't copper, random bridge taps the list could go on...)



Plus the other reason why AT&T buying DirecTV is a bad thing, is that once they own all the satellite equipment there will be no incentive at all for AT&T to build out the rest of it's DSL lines to VDSL/ADSL2/FTTH/ETC they will just replace all those DSL users with mediocre satellite that has horrible pings and daily caps, and also turn around and start charging people $X per whatever daily for going over the cap... So now the options will be either A.) Old Slow AT&T DSL with caps and overages (if they don't decommission it/sell it off) or B.) New Slow AT&T satellite U-verse with caps and overages, sure it's a win/win for AT&T, but a lose/lose for customers who have already been given the shaft....

josephf

join:2009-04-26 josephf to mixdup

Member to mixdup

Let them require that AT&T spin-off U-Verse in order to get the DirecTV merger approved.

AnonDude

@charter.com AnonDude to mixdup

Anon to mixdup

Charter, TWC and Cox combined is smaller than Comcast.

cork1958

Cork

Premium Member

join:2000-02-26 cork1958 Premium Member Re: AT&T/DirecTV said by AnonDude : Charter, TWC and Cox combined is smaller than Comcast But all 3 of those still raise rates at least annually and all 3 of those still have no competition to worry about, for the most part, so, who cares how big or small they are?

maartena

Elmo

Premium Member

join:2002-05-10

Orange, CA maartena Premium Member If it gets blocked.... Dear customer,



Due to the rising cost of content we have to raise your price again. Oh and again in 6 months. You could have prevented this by lobbying in favor of our merger with Time Warner, and because you customers whined everywhere on the internet it is your fault we have to raise our prices. Again.**



**But then written very politically correct.



Yeah, if this merger fails I am totally seeing it possible they will blame their NEXT price increase on the fact the merger didn't happen. Woe is us, you should have let us merge, it is all your fault....

davidc502

join:2002-03-06

Mount Juliet, TN davidc502 Member Re: If it gets blocked.... said by maartena: Dear customer,



Yeah, if this merger fails I am totally seeing it possible they will blame their NEXT price increase on the fact the merger didn't happen. Woe is us, you should have let us merge, it is all your fault....



Everyone wants to blame all the problems on the government, so it's not like blaming them for this is going to change anything. Let them. I imagine that if the merger went through, TV costs would be less for Comcast... This would just mean additional profit into Comcast's pocket with no real savings to the customer.Everyone wants to blame all the problems on the government, so it's not like blaming them for this is going to change anything. Let them. Kearnstd

Space Elf

Premium Member

join:2002-01-22

Mullica Hill, NJ Kearnstd to maartena

Premium Member to maartena

And if its not blocked the prices will go up to cover the costs of merging.



I think the FCC, FTC, and SEC need to do something about these prices. Mainly they need to require video providers to tell what they spend on content broken down by vendor or even by channel. This would maybe not drop prices but it would let customer and investor know where the money is going.

why60loss

Premium Member

join:2012-09-20 why60loss Premium Member I am going to call it now The deal will be blocked, Time warner cable will start selling off markets in mass like Verizon and will be looking at data caps like Comcast but even worse.



Maybe they will do something like this:



starter internet 3/1 5GB cap $15 a month with $1 per GB

Standard internet 10/1 40GB cap $30 a month with $1 per GB

Turbo internet 50/5 160GB cap $45 a month with $10 per 50GB



Below options only in Maxx markets(They will quit expanding once deal is killed):



100 internet 100/10 300GB cap $55 a month with $10 per 50GB

200 internet 200/20 450GB cap $65 a month with $10 per 50GB

300 internet 300/30 600GB cap $75 a month with $10 per 50GB



One only need's to look at what they tried in 2009 to see what the business really wants to do and it's true nature. They will be even worse than Comcast has ever been, because even in 2009 Comcast didn't try to pull 40GB caps with $1 per GB to it's customers.



Comcast will likely expand it's cap plans across the nation if the deal is blocked. political_i

join:2013-11-12 political_i Member Re: I am going to call it now I don't think Time Warner would cap service in areas with U-Verse Gigapower or FTTN with 45-75 meg service.



Maxx markets simply won't be capped, you would lose out to Google or AT&T where they are currently targeted, and if the FCC preempts muni-broadband laws, then don't expect it.

maartena

Elmo

Premium Member

join:2002-05-10

Orange, CA maartena to why60loss

Premium Member to why60loss

TWC isn't going to cap.



I can get 75 Mbps from AT&T, but more importantly I can get that same 75 Mbps from DSLEXtreme who DO NOT have any caps whatsoever, and advertise with truly unlimited.



I hit around 350-400 a month at this moment, and the 250 GB "soft cap" from Comcast and AT&T are too low for me, even though they only exist on paper.

ev

@rr.com ev to why60loss

Anon to why60loss

Yep. Amazing how AOL's unlimited dial-up market cap bought TW fifteen years ago. But now through a calculated series of spin-offs and market shenanigans, we're only a step or two away from being dragged kicking and screaming right back to metered wired Internet just like 1995.



Definitely breathtaking how AOL originally charged $19.95 for unlimited service in 1996 and now it's as low as $4.99/mo.



Progress?

ham3843

join:2015-01-15

USA ham3843 Member The answer is...the merger between Comcast and TWC will never happen. The wall street analysts don't want to admit it but the deal will not happen, not tomorrow, not six months from now, not six years from now, the FCC is finally siding with the

consumer and won't let it go through. Bravo!

buzz_4_20

join:2003-09-20

Biddeford, ME 1 recommendation buzz_4_20 Member In this Day and age If investors are worried about it, it's probably a pile of crap. mja1980

join:2013-05-09 mja1980 Member Comcast Merger I love how everyone has it in their mind what they think is going to happen. This is taking forever because they are waiting for the right time to approve this, and sneak it by you. People forget that Washington is a big cash register and the money has been spent. The political fall out will be huge if this is denied, or they would come out and do it already. They are going to approve both mergers, I believe. Honestly we don't know what will happen. The Fcc boss a former cable lobbyist, and brian Roberts being Obama's golf buddy. Simply put, if you don't like this then it probably has no benefits to you in the long run. If they pass the costs and to the consumers then cancel the service. I think that they will put a limit on how much they will be allowed to raise rates on consumers and there will be restrictions. The deal in my opinion goes through.

IowaCowboy

Supermarket Hero

Premium Member

join:2010-10-16

Springfield, MA ARRIS SB6183

Netgear R8000

IowaCowboy Premium Member I hope on terms that Comcast doesn't like If the deal is allowed to proceed Comcast should have to divest most of its existing systems (like Boston and Seattle) and swap others (smaller markets for bigger) like Chicago going to Mediacom and Iowa going to Comcast. Even make them divest Philadelphia. old_wiz_60

join:2005-06-03

Bedford, MA old_wiz_60 Member In the end... it will be whoever has the most money....People in favor of the merger will either bribe the FCC or will bribe Congress to overturn any FCC issues.

telcodad

MVM

join:2011-09-16

Lincroft, NJ telcodad MVM All Cable Companies are now being downgraded over Title II and OTT concerns Comcast, TWC and Charter downgraded to neutral on analyst concerns over Title II, cord-cutting

By Daniel Frankel, FieceCable - February 17, 2015

»www.fiercecable.com/stor ··· 15-02-17



Also:



Moffet Downgrades Cable Sector on Title II Woes

Pegs Comcast, TWC, Charter Neutral

By Mike Farrell, Multichannel News - February 17, 2015

»www.multichannel.com/new ··· s/388046 By Daniel Frankel, FieceCable - February 17, 2015Also:By Mike Farrell, Multichannel News - February 17, 2015 your comment..

