The Sunday and Irish Independent just released a Millward Brown poll for voting intentions in the coming European elections, the first such poll for this election.(link for outside Dublin and link for Dublin) The graph shows an unweighted national average.

Compared to the last European elections, Fine Gael are down 7, Fianna Fail up 2, Labour down 7, Sinn Féin up 6, Green Party up 3 and Others up 3.

Compared to the last Millward Brown poll (link), which looked at Dáil voting intentions, Fine Gael are down 7, Fianna Fáil up 4, Sinn Féin down 3, Labour up one and the Green Party, Independents and Others up 7. Looking at that, one would think there was a surge for Fianna Fáil and Others at the expense of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, though apart from Fine Gael and Others, the numbers are within or very close to the average margin of error of 3%.

However, if we look at the individual contests, we see SF likely to gain more seats than any other party in the south or tie with Fianna Fáil. Intended transfers weren’t released publicly, however judging by media analysis and the polls, a possible breakdown of seats would be 3 Sinn Féin, 3 Fianna Fáil, 3 Independent and 2 Fine Gael. Labour are facing the prospect of a complete wipeout, unless Emer Costello can pull in enough transfers to get the third seat in Dublin.

The seat breakdown starts to make more sense at the constituency level. The bulk of Fianna Fáil’s vote is tied up in Brian Crowley in Ireland South on 36% where he claims the vast majority of thei 39%, the largest of any party. His vote is estimated to be a quota and a half, whether this is enough to pull in his running mate Kieran Hartley, who polls very low on 3% remains to be seen. They also get the largest share of the vote in Midlands-North West with 25% and can be confident of a seat for Thomas Byrne, but Pat the Cope Gallagher is polling quite low on 9%. If all that vote went to a single candidate, the media might well be talking of Fianna Fáil surge, rather than a ‘make-or-break’ election for Micheál Martin.

Fine Gael also poll respectably in Midlands-North West but their first preference vote is split between Máiréad McGuiness and Jim Higgins, making it look less impressive and threatening their hopes of returning an MEP at all in that constituency. If it came down to a last count, one of the candidates would likely push the other over the line, but if enough anti-government vote from Sinn Féin and the other independent candidates goes to the two independent front-runners, they could be going home empty handed.

In Ireland South, the two Fine Gael front-runners have a margin of error between themselves and the next highest candidate Independent Diarmuid O’Flynn, but should sneak through on transfers if the poll figures hold up, though it won’t be an easy fight.

Dublin, as usual, is poor hunting ground for the Civil War parties with Labour, the Green Party and Others polling well above their national average, with Sinn Féin also higher than their average. Independent Nessa Childers and Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan look set to take the first two seats with a four way scrap between Brian Hayes, Mary Fitzpatrick, Emer Costello and Eamonn Ryan for the last seat.

Overall, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin take a hit on voter intention with the other parties remaining stable. In terms of seats, individual candidates in each constituency and the customary poor showing from the Civil War parties in Dublin means Sinn Féin are likely to take a seat in each constituency (including Northern Ireland) while Fine Gael will struggle to keep 2 and Independents and Fianna Fáil strong enough to get 3 each with Fianna Fáil scrapping it out for the last.

Considering the Republic’s one less MEP and the intense competition, talk of crisis in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is a bit overblown. Fianna Fáil will be delighted with Brian Crowley’s performance and to be odds on for a seat in Midlands-North West, though Pat the Cope Gallagher will be upset if he doesn’t retain his seat. They’ll also be happy with their strong national performance though disappointed with their Dublin showing. Perhaps they would be dissapointed to not get a bigger increase from their 2009 share when the party was in meltdown after the financial crisis, but to be so would be to ignore the political reality of 2014, Sinn Féin are now a real threat to the two big parties and neither can rely on a poor government performance to drive votes towards them.

Fine Gael have more cause for concern, a 7 point drop from the Dáil election intentions, the split vote in Midlands-North West as well as junior minister Brian Hayes’ poor performance in Dublin will all cause concern. This will be tempered slightly however, but only slightly by the fact that European Elections always favour smaller and protest parties and give a knock to government parties. However the party will need to recover its image after the various controversies surrounding the police if they want to perform well in the next general election.

Smaller parties have more to be concerned about. Labour are in total meltdown, from the high of the ‘Gilmore Gale’ and 3 seats of the last European election, they look set to return nobody this time round and are in real danger of disappearing from the Irish political scene altogether. Their presence in a government seen as cutting essential services and the emergence of a strong left wing threat in Sinn Féin has destroyed their vote and it’s hard to see Labour members and candidates not being unhappy with a performance like the polls say. They will take some respite from a relatively strong performance in Dublin and will be hoping to use that as a base to rebuild.

Despite polling well, the Green Party’s Eamonn Ryan is by no means guaranteed a seat, with the party still transfer-averse due to the performance of the last government. The failure to gain a seat and the finances that come with it will be a severe blow to the party’s hopes of recovery, being hard pressed to fund the necessary presence-building until the next general election.

Other small parties like United Left, the Socialist Party and Direct Democracy Ireland will be dissapointed not to have mopped up more of the anti-government protest vote, with small parties traditionally doing well in Europe. The protest vote seems to be going to Sinn Féin and Independents, it’ll be hard to see them becoming more than very minor parties any time soon.