I’m not sure whether you’ve heard the news, but it’s good news for players and bad news for anyone who thought we were going to see the floor on fetches coming soon. Prices had begun to at least stabilize a little bit on fetches and it looked like they may have even taken an upturn despite us being nowhere near peak supply. After all, Khans of Tarkir was still going to be drafted alongside Fate Reforged and with Khans of Tarkir drafts still going on MODO-side, we were going to get redemption copies for a long time to come.

I’m interested to see those if those modest gains reverse themselves after today’s news.

Those who check the Mothership frequently will have seen this posting.

The Tl;dr is this –

in Fate Reforged booster packs, the basic land slot may contain nonbasic lands. You may get one of the ten common Khans of Tarkir dual lands—Dismal Backwater, Jungle Hollow, and friends. They will have new artwork and the Fate Reforged expansion symbol. Or, you may encounter one of the Khans of Tarkir fetch lands, which will be identical to the Khans of Tarkir version, including the expansion symbol. This is similar to the manner in which Return to Ravnica dual lands were available in Dragon’s Maze in the lands slot.

This is big news. Fetches will continue to drop in price as more and more copies hit the market. This isn’t as profound an effect when it comes to drafting as some are making it out to be; after all, booster drafts were going to be one pack of Fate Reforged and two packs of Khans of Tarkir. However, people busting lots of packs of Fate Reforged trying to get a foil Ugin or one of the sweet new monocolored Khans that can go in a 3 color EDH deck, a lot of fetches are going to continue to hit the market. This is more fetches to redeem on MODO and more to get pulled out of boosters for months to come. I expect the fetches to follow a nearly identical price trajectory to the shocklands in Return to Ravnica block. That’s not to say they’ll ever hit the same low price, but I do expect a similar trajectory.

If you have a bunch of fetches and aren’t sure what to do with them, just know that being able to sell them now and buy in later for cheaper is a very, very complex process. Fluctuations in price based on playability are almost as profound than the ones associated with announcements like this one. Observe.

There is only about a $3-$5 differential between those peaks and valleys, and with fees biting you at both ends, you’re not going to profit a ton even if you buy at the absolute lowest and sell at the absolute highest. However, we did see the announcement of shocks being included in booster packs of Dragon’s Maze have a noticeable effect on prices – the price was in mid-decline before booster packs of Dragon’s Maze were even opened as you can see on the graph.

What’s my recommendation? Sell now if you were hoarding fetches in the hopes that they would creep up. They won’t, not until well after rotation unless there is a dramatic metagame shift. If you want to buy in at the floor, we don’t really know when or where that will be, but the trajectory of shocks can give us some clues. I think whether or not you plan to pick them up later, you want to be rid of them now. I expect the ones seeing the most play to lose roughly 30% of their value in the coming months.

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Jason Alt Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown. More Posts Follow Me:



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