by Bill Barnwell

Just one month ago, both Aaron Rodgers and his Packers team seemed to be on their last legs. Rodgers was concussed and ruled out for a crucial game at New England, while the Packers seemed likely to fall out of the playoff picture with a loss to the streaking Patriots. For yet another season, it seemed like the copious amounts of talent in Green Bay would fail to produce a deep run into the playoffs -- if the playoffs even loomed at all.

A lot can change in a month. The Packers got some help from the Eagles, whose miraculous comeback to beat the Giants gave their eventual conquerors a clear path to the postseason. Rodgers promptly came back in Week 16 and had the best game of both his career and the 2010 season, producing 294 DYAR in a dominant performance against the then-top-ranked Giants pass defense.

And on Saturday? Rodgers put up a performance that belongs in the discussion with both that game and the greatest playoff performances of the past 18 years.

In his dominant victory over the Falcons, Rodgers produced 287 DYAR on his 40 touches (36 passes, two sacks, and two runs). It's the second-best game of Rodgers' career, coming in just behind that game against the Giants. While Rodgers's raw performance in the Falcons game was better by our numbers, the opponent adjustments in DYAR boost up his Giants game just beyond this performance. That's because the Falcons had the league's tenth-ranked pass defense this year.

With DVOA and DYAR calculated through the 1993 season, we have records of every playoff performance by a quarterback over that timeframe. Rodgers finished with the fourth-highest DYAR total by a quarterback in a single game over that timeframe. The record for single-game DYAR by a quarterback was actually set during a playoff game that Rodgers played in; unfortunately, he was on the losing side.

Last year, Rodgers lost in the Wild Card round despite producing 193 DYAR in a 51-45 loss to the Cardinals. That is the 24th-best performance in the playoffs of the DVOA Era. Number one is the other starting quarterback in that game: Kurt Warner. Warner produced a massive 385 DYAR by going 29-of-33 for 382 yards with five touchdowns, no interceptions, and just one sack against the league's fourth-ranked pass defense. Games two and three on the list both belong to Peyton Manning: The famous Roc Alexander game against the Broncos in 2004 produced 329 DYAR, while his win over the Jets last season resulted in 305 DYAR, thanks to a massive opponent adjustment.

Disappointed that Rodgers doesn't end up with the greatest playoff game in recent history? Don't be. Consider that Rodgers's performance was better than any playoff game in the careers of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, or Ben Roethlisberger. He's unquestionably the best quarterback left in the playoffs, and if you believe that quarterbacks can get particularly hot or cold, he's put up two of the top 15 games of the past 18 years in the course of the past four weeks.

Sure beats the place Rodgers and the Packers were in a month ago.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Aaron Rodgers GB 31/36 366 3 0 287 273 14 Was Rodgers's performance better than the numbers? Perhaps. The numbers don't see how he makes the plays, and not all plays are created equally. How many third downs did Rodgers convert after ducking a free pass rusher, only to scramble out of the pocket and hit his receiver in stride? Rodgers had better numbers as a passer whilst scrambling than anyone outside of Michael Vick this year. Of course, he didn't always need to scramble. Rodgers converted seven of the first eight third downs he faced, and the only one he didn't get was the one where Greg Jennings fumbled after 30 yards, which is hardly Rodgers's fault. 2. Mark Sanchez NYJ 16/25 194 3 0 130 130 0 Remember all that stuff about how the Jets had simplified their offense and were limiting Sanchez to slants and other safe throws after the 45-3 loss to the Patriots? Well, they made it more complex. Sanchez was fantastic against the Patriots, often hitting his receivers in stride and even making plays downfield. His best throw was about as complex as you can get, signaling Braylon Edwards to change his route on the fly with a hand signal and then launching a perfect 36-yard corner route to the sideline. He turned 10 third downs into four first downs and two touchdowns, particularly important considering his rushing game produced just one first down in the first half. 3. Matt Hasselbeck SEA 27/47 271 3 0 125 125 0 Against a very good pass defense, Hasselbeck actually had a really nice game, even if those three touchdowns all came in the final 12 minutes of the game. Hasselbeck had three or four passes flat-out dropped by his receivers and several more that probably should have been caught. His wide receivers flat-out stunk: Mike Williams had two of those late touchdowns, but he finished with four catches and a pass interference call on 14 targets, totaling 22 yards, and had six straight incompletions at one point. (It isn't all Williams's fault, but a fair amount of his incompletions were catchable balls.) Ben Obomanu was 4-of-8. Even Brandon Stokley -- who finished the game with eight straight completions or DPIs -- had three incompletions to start. 4. Jay Cutler CHI 15/28 274 2 0 68 33 35 You'll note that more than half of Cutler's DYAR came as a rusher, thanks to five runs that produced three first downs and two touchdowns. He also had great passing numbers as a scrambler this year. Cutler started his day with the best throw he made all game, the touchdown pass to Greg Olsen up the seam against the Lawyer Milloy statue. Otherwise? Blech. The near-interception in the end zone was a truly awful decision (produced in part by Johnny Knox's route), but Cutler had at least two other plays that saw him attempt to throw the ball away by tossing it vaguely in the direction of a receiver. After a 26-yard screen to Matt Forte in the second quarter, Cutler went nine dropbacks without a first down, with two sacks and five incompletions in the process. 5. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 19/32 226 2 0 54 51 3 Roethlisberger really led two drives of any consequence all game: The opening 80-yarder and the 65-yarder to end the game (which was mainly one fantastic play). Otherwise, the scoring drives for the Steelers were products of field position, as their other 17 points came on drives that requred an average of 24 yards to go for a touchdown. Roethlisberger was sacked six times, with one resulting in a fumble and touchdown for the Ravens. Just 15 of his 39 dropbacks were successful. 6. Tom Brady NE 29/45 299 2 1 50 48 3 Brady took five sacks in the game. The last time he was sacked five times, coincidentally, was by the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The time before that was in 2003, when the Jets sacked him five times in a 23-16 win. That was when Herm Edwards was coach and Darrelle Revis was a senior in high school. The Jets were able to throw Brady off the scent of big plays by blitzing less frequently than normal (a gambit that also worked against the Colts) and taking Brady's wide receivers out of the game. Brady attempted just four passes to his wideouts before halftime. He picked up a few first downs throwing to them after the break, but Brady didn't complete a pass that traveled more than 13 yards in the air to his wideouts, and nothing further than 20 yards in the air to anybody. The Jets limited him to throws to his lesser receivers and then tackled well. After missing a tackle on Danny Woodhead to start the game, the Jets allowed just 44 yards on 11 further passes to Patriots running backs. 7. Matt Ryan ATL 20/29 186 1 2 0 0 0 His two interceptions were unconscionable decisions, awful throws into windows that just weren't there. (Credit should go to for Tramon Williams for helping lure Ryan into those throws.) Ryan was sacked five times for the first time in his career, produced just 10 first downs all day, and had a turnover just about once every 12 dropbacks. Opponent adjustments boost his game up to exactly 0 DYAR. 8. Joe Flacco BAL 16/30 125 1 1 -9 -9 0 Flacco's biggest play of the game was a 33-yard DPI drawn by Derrick Mason. His longest completion was for 21 yards, and he had just five completions for more than 10 yards all game. That's one of the reasons why he finished with just eight first downs and one touchdown. It fell apart in the third quarter, of course, and it ended up being quite the ugly run: Sack, completion to Ray Rice resulting in a lost fumble (no blame assigned to Flacco for the fumble, of course), sack, incompletion, interception, incompletion, snap fumbled away. That whole stretch produced -89 DYAR.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Chester Taylor CHI 44 1 0 0 22 22 0 Taylor's been a drain on the Bears offense for most of the season, failing to live up to his promise as a third-down back and complement to Matt Forte. Although he had a relatively quiet day in the win over the Seahawks, Taylor finished as the best back of the week because he had successful carries on eight of his 12 rushes, producing three first downs and a touchdown from the 1-yard line. (That's a victory for the Bears.) It also helps that no other running back had a big game. Nobody ran for more than 80 yards this week, and that took Bears teammate Matt Forte 25 carries. Taylor produced 22 DYAR, which wouldn't rank in the top ten during most weeks of the regular season. 2. Danny Woodhead NE 57 0 52 0 21 2 19 Although the Jets have a great run defense, Woodhead needs to produce more than two first downs, six successes, and 57 yards on 15 carries against them to contribute much more than replacement-level performance. (He also fumbled on a carry, which was one of the sneaky aspects of the Jets' win: The team that recovered an astounding percentage of fumbles during the regular season didn't recover either of the key fumbles in their game and still won.) After his 25 YAC on the opening play, Woodhead had just 35 YAC on his final five catches. 3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE 43 0 11 0 16 18 -1 As I said, it wasn't a good week for running backs. Four of Green-Ellis's nine carries went for seven yards or more, and he had just one stuff all game. 4. Matt Forte CHI 80 0 54 0 13 -19 32 With 25 carries, Forte produced just two first downs. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss on five carries, gaining a lone yard on five additional carries. Two of those stuffs came inside the Seahawks' three-yard line, harkening back to his disastrous goal-line season of a year ago. On the bright side, all three of his targets as a receiver produced first down. Maybe they should have thrown him 25 passes and given him three carries instead. 5. Shonn Greene NYJ 76 1 9 0 11 7 4 After six unsuccessful runs to start the game, Greene finished the first half with a successful five-yarder on first-and-10. That portended good things to come, and he had three first downs and a touchdown on 10 carries in the second half, including a 20-yarder in the third quarter and his 16-yard touchdown run to seal things up with 1:46 left.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. James Starks GB 66 0 0 0 -35 -35 0 Starks simply didn't contribute to the Packers' win. You can point to his carry total (25) and create some murky idea of balancing the offense, but they could have handed the ball to Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn 25 times, too. Those guys might have even hit three yards a carry. He produced just four first downs and seven successful plays, was stuffed on both his carries near the goal line, and averaged less than two yards a carry on first down. All this against the run defense that ranked as the league's second-worst over the second half of the season.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Jordy Nelson GB 8 8 79 9.9 1 65 Nelson simply dominated Christopher Owens in the slot. Those eight catches produced six first downs and a touchdown, including four third down conversions. The catch that didn't result in a first down gained nine yards on first-and-10. Nelson's now caught three touchdowns this year and two of them have come in the same corner of the Georgia Dome. Nelson's going to be a seriously valuable contributor to this team next year after James Jones leaves in free agency. 2. Michael Jenkins ATL 6 8 67 11.2 0 49 With the Packers taking away Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez on most third downs, Jenkins became the only guy who could move the chains for the Falcons. They threw him passes on four third downs and a fourth down, and he produced four first downs (one on a 23-yard defensive pass interference penalty). He fumbled the ball away after converting a fourth-and-1, but that was with a 24-point deficit. 3. James Jones GB 4 4 75 18.8 1 46 It's good to see that Jones didn't drop anything in this game; he's a talented player that doesn't deserve a reputation for dropping an extraordinary amount of passes. He was able to physically overwhelm Brent Grimes on two of his three catches; Grimes was in great position for Jones's 20-yard touchdown catch, but Jones was simply too big for Grimes to handle. 4. Roddy White ATL 6 10 57 9.5 1 35 White picked up a couple of early third-down conversions on plays where it seemed like the Packers had plum forgot about the other team's best wide receiver. Not surprisingly, those options went away pretty quick. White had a 12-yard DPI immediately preceding the pick-six, and then had three catches for 18 yards in the second half. His longest catch of the day was just 12 yards, though. 5. Brandon Stokley SEA 8 11 85 10.6 1 34 As mentioned in the Hasselbeck comment, Stokley started the day with three incompletions and then had eight straight plays resulting in either a completion or a DPI, producing five first downs and a touchdown. They all came with a three-score disadvantage, tempering their value, but they were also against the Bears.