President Donald Trump’s shadow looms large over Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (pictured) and his pick to replace Sen. John McCain. If he picks someone viewed as antagonistic to Trump’s agenda, the governor risks angering the president’s base – and throwing into doubt a vote for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee. | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO arizona Ducey aims to please Trump with McCain fill-in The Arizona governor has grown closer to the White House since cautiously embracing the president in 2016, but can't risk alienating moderate voters.

Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s decision to replace the late John McCain is as much about his own political future as it is about filling the seat of the six-term senator and decorated war hero.

Republicans with knowledge of the governor’s thinking say he’ll have to remain deferential to Trump and the White House while also taking care not to alienate a statewide electorate ahead of a tough reelection fight in November.


Ducey — a former Coldstone Creamery chief executive — was hesitant to publicly endorse Trump in 2016 but showed up to at least two closed-door campaign events for him before the election, said one Republican close to the governor.

He has since appeared at official White House gatherings, notably on border security, though he’s remained cautious about where he’s seen with the president, skipping a Trump rally in Phoenix last year. Ducey, who is close to Vice President Mike Pence, instead met Trump on the tarmac as he arrived in Arizona.

“Doug has certainly done everything, at least that I’ve observed, in a way that’s conducive to a good relationship with Trump,” said former Republican Rep. Trent Franks of Arizona. “There might have been disagreements at times, but very rarely has there been anything but expressed support on Doug’s part.”

Ducey says he’s not making any moves until after McCain’s funeral as a way to honor his memory.

Sign up here for POLITICO Huddle A daily play-by-play of congressional news in your inbox. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

In interviews, more than a dozen Republican advisers, White House aides and people who have worked with Trump and the governor said the president and Ducey have come to view each other as, if not friends, then allies — with Ducey seen as somebody the White House could rely on to get its message to the public.

Ducey’s ties to Trump were largely born of necessity and mirror the arm's-length approach many politicians have taken with their new party leader. In 2015, Ducey was out of town when Trump rallied in his state with former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, though the governor made time for other candidates during their trips to Phoenix, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

“It’s a handshake. It’s not a bear hug,” is how one Arizona Republican put it.

Trump has endorsed Ducey in his gubernatorial primary but hasn’t waded into Arizona’s Senate primary, declining to endorse a candidate ahead of Tuesday’s vote — though in recent weeks there have been discussions about the president going out to Arizona to rally for Rep. Martha McSally if she wins, according to Republicans in Arizona and Washington. It wasn’t clear whether Ducey would attend.

For the president, the decision offers an opportunity to blot out McCain’s most dramatic legislative move in the Trump era: casting the deciding vote against Obamacare repeal, and dooming the administration’s first big legislative initiative.

Ducey hasn’t started making calls to prospective replacements for McCain, allies of the governor and outside organizations with knowledge said, and has yet to broach the subject with groups heavily invested in the pick, including the Republican Governors Association and others in Washington.

A top adviser to the governor said he would not engage in any conversations on the selection until the late senator’s life is honored.

J.P. Twist, Ducey’s campaign manager, added in a statement: “Out of respect for John McCain, the governor will not be attending any campaign events between now and when the Senator is laid to rest.”

Ducey tends to hold things close to the vest and is hard to predict, according to two people who know him.

“John McCain was one of a kind,” said Sean Noble, a longtime Republican consultant in the state. “So it makes sense that replacing him is very challenging, because no one will quite measure up.”

But one new candidate whose name has increasingly come up could help the governor in his own reelection fight and satisfy the pro-Trump wing of the party while honoring the memory of the six-term senator: Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire, a career military pilot who also serves as adjutant general for the state.

McGuire, also the director of the Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs, has not been listed among the usual cast of potential successors since McCain fell ill last year. But his name began surfacing in interviews with more than a dozen politicians and consultants.

“John’s fairly highly regarded here in Arizona. Maybe not among the partisan base, but amongst the broader electorate and the community,” Arizona Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin said of the late senator’s legacy as a military man. “I think he would probably respect the family legacy there and the service,” he added of Ducey’s choice.

“But beyond that, I think he’ll just pick a conservative Republican who’s well regarded and likely to run and hold the seat.”

McGuire could not be reached for comment Monday. He has a solid reputation in the state — with one Republican close to the governor confirming that he hasn’t seen the career military official speak out in ways that could jeopardize his possible standing.

Trump’s shadow looms large over the pick: Not only does Ducey risk angering the president’s base if he picks someone viewed as antagonistic to his agenda, but he could throw into doubt a vote for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

Trump is being advised to stay out of the decision and has not yet signaled his preference for a replacement, according to two White House officials.

The Senate confirmed Jeff DeWit, the state treasurer and one of Trump’s closest allies in Arizona, as NASA’s chief financial officer in March, likely taking him out of the running. Ducey also has a notoriously poor relationship with DeWit.

The list of possible replacements includes two familiar picks. Cindy McCain, the late senator’s widow, and former Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona were under consideration as interim replacements if John McCain died before May 30, another Republican close to Ducey told POLITICO, which would have set off a November 2018 primary.

Several Arizona Republicans said they believe Kyl was still in the running, but they downplayed Cindy McCain’s desire to serve in the role, even for two years.

“If Ducey were to pick Cindy McCain, it would be suicidal for his reelection chances. His base would just go crazy,” said one Arizona Republican.

Other names mentioned include former Rep. John Shadegg; Barbara Barrett, a former ambassador to Finland; Kirk Adams, Ducey’s chief of staff and a former state lawmaker; Karrin Taylor Robson, a wealthy developer; state Treasurer Eileen Klein; Rep. Paul Gosar; and Matt Salmon, another former congressman.

Ducey was said to be annoyed by Gosar because he expressed interest in the job before McCain died.

Another potential consideration for Ducey is Kelli Ward, the former state senator who challenged McCain in the GOP primary in 2016 and is running against McSally for the seat being vacated by retiring Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake, a frequent Trump critic, in Tuesday’s primary. Ward could mount a third Senate campaign against whoever Ducey picks if she loses the GOP primary on Tuesday.

“The governor needs to pick somebody who’s conservative enough to get through a tough primary against someone who can raise a lot of money,” said another Republican operative, referring to Ward.

This person argued Trump should want Ducey to pick a strong candidate who can run for reelection in 2020 and not give Democrats an opening in Arizona, which is already a potential battleground state in the presidential race. “If I’m the White House, and I’m thinking down the road, I want someone who makes Arizona not something to worry about,” the operative said.

Ward drew flak on Monday for tweeting “Political correctness is like a cancer!” She continued to criticize McCain on the campaign trail on Friday, even after McCain’s family announced that he was discontinuing treatment for brain cancer.

Ward made a point of encouraging the governor to make a conservative pick in comments Monday. “The governor has a big decision to make, so I hope he weighs those carefully. My hope is that he appoints another very conservative senator,” she said. “I hope he appoints someone in that mold, not in a different mold.”

Daniel Lippman and Andrew Restuccia contributed to this report from Washington, and James Arkin contributed from Arizona.