Photo: Woody Woodworth/Creation Captured

Allen Sarlo. Photo: Bill Parr

Kassia Meador. Photo: Bill Parr

Photo: Bill Parr

Looking west with Point Dume in the background. Most swells approaching Malibu from the west-northwest are blocked by Point Dume and the Channel Islands further offshore to the west. Photo: Tom Cozad

Andy Lyons is a third generation Malibu local and a regular fixture in the lineup whenever the waves are good. Photo: Bill Parr

Map: Google

Malibu, circa 1924 and the Ringe Dam. Courtesy UCLA Archives

Photo: Bill Parr

The July 27, 2008 photo (second to last) clearly shows the shape of the cobblestone reefs underwater off 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Points. Throughout this 20-year sequence we can see the sand over the reef change but the shape of the underlying cobblestone reef seemed to change very little. Images: Google

October 1977 Southern Hemisphere swell from the SSW-190° @ 15-secs period. Head-high-plus, and four good waves per set every eight minutes. Each hour equals 32 really good set waves -- divided by 40 surfers between 1st and 3rd this day. One set wave per surfer at 1st and 3rd every 33 minutes. (If everyone took turns...) Photo: Woody Woodworth/Creation Captured

Joel Tudor. Photo: Bill Parr

Anthony Petruso. Photo: Bill Parr

Photo: Bill Parr

Shooting Malibu Pier is not recommended, with too many crossbeams between pilings compared to other piers with no crossbeams like Huntington. Photo: Dave Collyer

Small WNW swell wrap at low tide on January 18, 2009. Ventura was solid double overhead (8-10') this day while Malibu was only chest high (1-3') due to blocking by the Channel Islands offshore. This swell needed to have more WSW in the direction to get past the islands with more size into Malibu. Photo: Tom Cozad

Photo: Bill Parr

1969 + 50 years = 2019. Only eight more years for the next 50-Year Storm. You gonna be out there? Photo: Tom Cozad

Josh Farberow. Photo: Bill Parr

Jesse Faen. Photo: Dave Collyer

Malibu wildfire, fanned by Santa Ana winds. Photo: Fickr

January 9th, 2000. Solid WSW swell creating lots of waves for 50 surfers at First Point. Photo: Bill Parr

Photo: Shawn Parkin

Notice Catalina Island in the distance looking directly south-southeast about 170°. Once the swell direction shifts slightly to the right in the photo to approach from 175° or greater, the waves will be able to pass around the island to get into Malibu. Photo: Bill Parr

Looking southeast around 160° toward Palos Verdes in the distance and Catalina on the right. Hurricane swells from storms off Baja usually begin from this SE-160° direction and will be blocked from Malibu, while more SE exposed areas like Orange County may be pumping. Photo: Bill Parr

Every surfer in Southern California should know what swell direction and degrees produces the best waves at their favorite spots. Referring to the compass at the top right: North - 0/360°, East=90°, South=180°, West=270°. Map: Google

January 9, 2000. A solid WSW-WNW (260-290) swell getting into Malibu from a storm that was close off the California coast. There are lots of people out but also lots of waves. Looking closely at the horizon there are whitecaps on the outside from 25 knot northwesterly winds creating a little side bump at Malibu, but these same winds were ruining conditions at most other spots. Photo: Bill Parr

Most surfers don't think about the effects of swell period, which is basically only looking at half of the wave and ignoring where most of the wave energy is -- under the surface of the water.

Surfline's LOLA Nearshore Model creates a 4-Day forecast of wave heights everywhere along the coast. All of the swell variables like direction, period, and offshore island wave shadowing have been automatically calculated to obtain accurate nearshore wave heights.

Southern California has a very complex underwater bathymetry profile that greatly affects the waves approaching the coast. These slides offer a glimpse of what lies underneath.

Kelly Slater. Photo: Bill Parr

Swells from the SW (225-240) are a great direction for Malibu, but extremely rare as the storms will need to develop between Fiji and New Zealand. These swells from the SW are also then chewed up by the thousands of islands between Fiji and Tahiti.

Steven Lippman. Photo: Bill Parr

Chad Marshall. Photo: Bill Parr

Hurricanes are small storms so they generate the best swells when they are tracking toward a location. As the hurricane tracks swing more northerly in August thru September, Southern California begins to see stronger south swells from these storms off Baja. Map: Google

Looking southeast with Palos Verdes in the background. Photo: Bill Parr

Colton Sarlo. Photo: Bill Parr

Anthony Petruso. Photo: Bill Parr

Photo: Bill Parr