In the 2008 presidential primary, Rhode Island supported then-Sen. Hillary Clinton by an 18-point margin despite the fact that then-Sen. Barack Obama had taken two-thirds of the preceding primary contests, well on his way to securing the Democratic nomination.



Parallels between that contest and today�s between Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders abound � including the apparent contradiction between the level of enthusiasm for each candidate and the expected outcome in Rhode Island.



�In the early states, college students are very active and engaged. That�s a great thing, but it exaggerates perhaps some of the outcomes,� said Maureen Moakley, an observer of state politics and professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island.



�I expect the race to be pretty settled by then,� Moakley continued, referring to Rhode Island�s April 26 primary, �and (Clinton) will emerge as the frontrunner. � Particularly in this area, it falls into an establishment pattern.�



But among students at URI, support for Clinton has been �tepid.� Sanders led during surveys in an introductory American politics course this fall, with Clinton often receiving the support of less than one in five, including among female students.



Generally, political science research suggests only weak support for the notion that women voters feel greater affinity toward political candidates of the same gender. These findings run contrary to the expectation that descriptive representation would prompt a sense of greater political efficacy � a measure of citizens� faith and trust in government and their belief that they can understand and influence political affairs.



�I�ve never seen a presidential candidate receive as much support from Rhode Islanders of all age groups and backgrounds,� said Walter Conklin. �The mainstream media and the Clinton campaign have put this idea out there that Bernie�s supporters are all young, first-time voters.�



Conklin and Amanda Montgomery, both 35 of Warren, campaigned together in New Hampshire for Sanders the weekend before that state�s Feb. 9 primary. While supporters may not all be newly registered voters, many are volunteering for the first time � including Montgomery.



�Among those who we spoke with who were supporters, there was a range of ages from 25 to 65, without any real commonalities except for the majority of them were white (but this was suburban New Hampshire),� Montgomery wrote by email. �The supporters were very excited and I was struck by how many were people who skipped the 2012 election but were planning to vote this time around.�



Among her friends in Rhode Island, Montgomery said a majority of Sanders supporters were women, mostly between the ages of 45 and 65. Additionally, �I myself am deaf and I�m seeing a lot of support among deaf people for Bernie Sanders.�



�I�ve seen overwhelming support from young friends,� according to Danielle Dirocco, a Narragansett resident and executive director of the graduate student union at URI. �My middle-aged peers are more visibly supportive of Hillary, but not necessarily more so than those in support of Bernie.�



Dirocco also knocked on doors for Sanders the weekend before the New Hampshire primary, and while supporters skewed younger, �parents and their children alike seemed to be broadly supportive of our efforts.�



�One middle-aged gentleman invited us back because his son was out of the house when we visited, saying �keep coming back!��



Moakley predicts a Clinton win again in Rhode Island based on the state�s historic support of establishment Democrats and a fondness for Bill Clinton�s presidency.



With the primary scheduled late in the season, �by the time it gets to Rhode Island it�ll be a fait accompli,� she predicted.



But Sanders supporters expect the Vermont senator to do well � Conklin points to the candidate�s small money donor base as a more useful metric than polls. �I think it�s important to understand at this point that Bernie has received over 3.5 million individual contributions from across the country. � I can say that although I have followed politics for many years, Bernie is the first candidate whose campaign I�ve ever contributed money to.�



�There is a level of enthusiasm (for Sanders) I don�t recall when Barack Obama was running,� Moakley said. �I suspect Bernie Sanders has tapped into something,� a discontent with the status quo similar to that which has wholly unsettled the Republican race.



With Sanders� support in Iowa and New Hampshire outperforming pre-election polls, the two Democratic candidates head into Nevada Feb. 20 with equal odds there. But betting markets still have Clinton as the three-to-one favorite for the eventual nomination.

