IS it time to set the date of a next referendum and get the independence movement back on the road?

I’m coming to the view that early in the new year, Nicola Sturgeon should set September 17, 2019 as the date Scotland goes back to the polls to make that momentous decision — exactly five years on from that disappointing day when we came so desperately close to becoming a fully fledged nation once again.

Yes, I know many SNP strategists are nervous about setting any timetable right now. There’s no doubt that the further you move outside the circles of hardcore political activists there is less than enthusiasm for another colossal campaign.

That’s understandable. Within the space of two and three-quarter years, between September 2014 and June 2017, Scottish voters were confronted with three national elections and two referendums, all of which involved sky-high stakes for the future of our nation. Never in the history of democracy have we been plunged into a frenzy of political campaigning in such a short space of time. No wonder war-weariness has hung heavy in the air since the early summer.

That’s one reason I’m not convinced of the argument presented forcefully by some that we should have the vote next September, barely nine months from now. But neither am I convinced that we can afford to keep the independence movement in an indefinite state of suspended animation.

Several recent events have persuaded me of the need for a degree of urgency.

At the start of last week, a Survation poll reported that support for independence had risen by two points to 47 per cent, pushing us to within touching distance of a majority — and that was the week before the Brexit fiasco which further underlined the chaos now rampaging through the corridors of power in Westminster and Whitehall.

Yet the same poll suggested that support for the SNP is almost eight points down from the last Holyrood election in the constituency vote, and nine points down in the regional list. Although the Scottish Greens show a small improvement, the prospect of delivering another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament in 2021 is not looking too hopeful right now, if we’re being honest about it.

I’ve heard the argument — indeed I might even have made it myself in the past — that if we can’t deliver a pro-independence majority in Holyrood, we won’t win a majority for Yes in a referendum.

That might have been a valid argument a year or two back, but politics has changed, with Labour now attracting Yes voters in numbers that would have been inconceivable in 2015. The reality is that an independence referendum offers straightforward clear-cut choice between two options and partly transcends normal party politics, while the 2021 Holyrood elections will be far more complicated, with multiple factors influencing voting patterns.

For some, it will be a judgement on the track record of the Scottish Government. For others, it will be about giving the revitalised Scottish Labour Party a shot in power. Some will vote for, or against, local personalities. Others will give their support to the party which they trust most to deliver on a specific issue close to their heart.

And, with Labour now clearly ahead in the opinion polls at a UK level, the 2021 Scottish elections may well be fought under the shadow of a forthcoming UK General Election, and a buoyant, highly motivated Labour Party — very different from the 2007 and 2011 Holyrood elections.

In a nutshell, it looks to me that it will be easier to win an independence referendum in 2019 than to deliver a pro-independence majority in Holyrood in 2021. So, we have a tough decision to take — and time is running away.

By September 2019, we will be clear what kind of UK is on offer. The EU has insisted that, irrespective of any transitional arrangement that may or may not be agreed, Brexit will have to be completed by the next European elections in June 2019. So by then, there will be some clarity and light after several years of uncertainty.

I’ve never been in favour of fighting the next referendum on the issue of Europe. Our relationship with the European Union should be for the people and the parties of a future independent Scotland to decide. Independence has to stand or fall on the principles of democracy and autonomy rather than ideology or detailed policy. Independence must be about allowing the people of Scotland the right to determine their own relations with Europe, and indeed the rest of the UK — and there will be a range of options in front of us in the future. But at least, post-Brexit, we will be much clearer about the future of the UK.

Much has been written this last week about the Brexit negotiations, with some suggesting that the turmoil over Ireland has all but guaranteed that they will remain in the single market. I’m highly sceptical.

THE 2016 referendum was not about the niceties of the single market. The debate was dominated by immigration and the free movement of people, with the loudest voices on the Leave side whipping up naked British nationalism. The Pandora’s box is well and truly open — any attempt to backtrack on immigration to achieve membership of the single market will lead to an internal Tory civil war and the probable rupture of the party, alongside the resurgence of UKIP with Nigel Farage back in the driving seat.

I suspect that to resolve the border problem, and avoid a return to the troubles, the EU may well allow the Republic of Ireland to negotiate its own special arrangements with the UK, involving the free flow of goods. That could be justified on the basis of Ireland’s historical relationship with the UK and its unique dependence on cross-border trade. So, rather than Northern Ireland being treated as an exceptional case, it could be that it is the Republic of Ireland that is given special status.

Such a precedent, if it came to pass, would aid the independence movement in Scotland, because it would be inconceivable that we would be denied access to the UK market, while the Republic of Ireland was allowed free-trade arrangements.

So, as we approach the end of a tough year, I feel we should now look to the future with confidence and conviction. The SNP has an indispensable role to play, and has done well to remain miles in front in the polls more than ten years on from taking power. At this stage in her reign, Margaret Thatcher trailed the opposition by 12 points in the polls, while New Labour after 10 and a half years had fallen five points behind.

But more than ever before, we need unity combined with diversity. Independence is the music of the future, but it has to a grand orchestra rather than a solo instrument played by a single musician.