Here are two bold predictions about your favorite football team, Broncos Country. One element of the forecast will paint a smile on your face. The other prediction might make you furious.

1) Denver will prove to be the most talented team in the NFL in 2014.

2) There’s a 75 percent chance the Broncos won’t win the Super Bowl this season.

Yes, despite the brilliance of quarterback Peyton Manning and the addition of defensive thumper T.J. Ward, there’s no better than a 1-in-4 probability of Denver finishing the upcoming season as league champion.

Hey, don’t get mad at me. Argue with the math stacked against the Broncos taking home the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 1, 2015.

Metrics are all the rage in sports. We bow to the artificial intelligence of computers. Well, the fine folks at PredictionMachine.com dumped their unbiased NFL metrics in a computer, played the season 50,000 times and report the Broncos won the Super Bowl more than any other team in the league, prevailing as champion in 25.1 percent of the simulations.

To add perspective, Seattle won it all in 22.6 percent of the 50,000 simulations conducted by sports metric guru Paul Bessire. His computer analysis insists Oakland has zero chance to win the Super Bowl. (Of course, even a knucklehead like me, who considered high school algebra an invitation to nap time, could have told you the Raiders have no shot.)

In Broncos Country, where the NFL is seen through orange-tinted glasses, the memory of that 43-8 trouncing by Seattle has been buried under a pile of optimism built on defensive upgrades made by the ballyhooed free-agent signings of pass rusher DeMarcus Ware, cornerback Aqib Talib and Ward.

“We expect a lot. I know our fans do, and rightfully so,” Denver coach John Fox says. “We’ve got great fans. But our guys are very motivated by the fact that you’re in this to win the world championship.”

But, in one-on-one conversations with Fox, the veteran coach has told me he “hates” to make any big and bold statements regarding his football team. Why? It’s not that Fox doubts the talent on Denver’s roster. The real reason? After 25 years in the NFL, he fully understands what a difficult task it is win the Super Bowl.

According to PredictionMachine.com, Drew Brees has a 15.8 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, Tom Brady has an 8.8 percent chance and Aaron Rodgers has a 3.1 percent chance. By comparison, Manning should like his odds.

But how daunting is the task that awaits the Broncos to become the first Super Bowl loser in 42 years to come back and win a championship in the following season?

Put it this way: For all the talent on Denver’s roster, if Fox were given a flip of a coin to guarantee a spot in the Super Bowl and another flip of a coin to win the Super Bowl, that flimsy game of chance would give him as good a shot at a championship as all the hours of film study, practice preparation and tough fourth-down decisions Fox sweats all season long.

With the NFC West, which shapes up to be the toughest division in the league, on Denver’s schedule, it would be crazy optimistic to expect the Broncos to win 13 games again this season. Put me down for 11-5, which would mean Manning and his teammates would likely have to hit the road in January to win the AFC’s berth in the Super Bowl.

The Broncos have no better than a 25 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

That’s actually a compliment, if you do the math.

It’s also a sobering reminder to a city gone gaga with championship-or-bust fever that the road to the Super Bowl is a long and difficult climb.

Mark Kiszla: mkiszla@denverpost.com or twitter.com/markkiszla