IT WAS a case of trying to have your cake and eat it—and the cake’s owner may end up with nothing. On October 10th Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia’s devolved government, told his parliament that he was “assuming the mandate” of the people to proclaim an independent republic and thus leave Spain. But seconds later he asked the parliament to “suspend the effects of the declaration of independence” to allow for negotiation. All clear?

This baffling manoeuvre followed an unauthorised referendum on independence held on October 1st in which, his administration says, 2.3m (around 43% of the electorate) voted, 90% of them in favour. Those numbers are not verifiable. But for many of the thousands of flag-waving demonstrators who gathered outside the parliament in Barcelona, the Catalan capital, they were enough to declare independence straight away, and the speech left them deflated. Mr Puigdemont’s tortuous formulation reflected the conflicting pressures he is now under. Business leaders and opposition politicians in Catalonia, one of Spain’s richest regions and home to 7.5m people, warn that he is taking them towards a costly political void. He is trying to play for time.

Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s conservative prime minister, swiftly called his bluff. With the support of the opposition Socialists and of Ciudadanos, a centre-right party, he set in motion Article 155 of Spain’s democratic constitution. Never previously invoked, this allows the government to “compel” an autonomous region to fulfil its constitutional obligations. The government has given Mr Puigdemont until October 16th formally to clarify whether he has declared independence or not; if he has, then he has until October 19th to revoke it.

Mr Puigdemont must thus choose climbdown or defiance. If he opts for the latter, Spain is heading into the unknown. The government may try to remove the Catalan administration and call a fresh election, as the constitution probably gives it the right to do. But some in Barcelona warn that doing so will require force.

Not so simple

The past few days have delivered a sharp reality check to Mr Puigdemont, contradicting the claims of his ruling coalition that independence would be painless. First, and most damagingly, around 40 of the largest companies in Catalonia moved their legal domicile to other parts of Spain. Companies rushed to withdraw their treasury operations from Catalan banks. They fear the legal uncertainty an independence proclamation entails. Although Mr Puigdemont’s people minimised the significance of the moves, over time jobs and tax revenues will go too. Suspending the declaration, rather than withdrawing the unconstitutional laws under which it was issued, merely prolongs the agony for business.

Second, on October 8th some 400,000 people marched in Barcelona for the unity of Spain. It was the first time that the silent majority opposed to independence found its voice. Now there are a few Spanish flags draped on Barcelona balconies, not just the ubiquitous esteladas, the starred flag of independence. “People finally believed they would declare independence, and that produced in days a reaction that hadn’t happened in years,” says a business leader.

Third, no European government has shown the slightest interest in Mr Puigdemont’s pleas for mediation (see Charlemagne). The leaders of the independence drive have clung to the belief that if they create enough disruption, “Europe” would step in to support them. “Catalonia is a European issue,” Mr Puigdemont insisted this week. But Europe’s leaders think it is an internal Spanish one.

The diverse independence coalition is fracturing. Moderates, silent for the past few months, successfully pressed for delay. By contrast, the CUP, an anarchist group that wants immediate independence, did not applaud Mr Puigdemont’s speech. At their insistence, representatives of the ruling coalition signed a declaration of independence after the parliamentary session; but it was not formally tabled. The CUP may now boycott parliament for a month, depriving Mr Puigdemont of his majority. “I don’t think he can last a month without calling an election” in Catalonia, says a senior politician from his party.

As for Catalan business “the will to declare [independence] is the same as declaring it,” says Anton Costas, an economist at the University of Barcelona. Hours after the parliamentary session Planeta, a big Barcelona publishing house, said it, too, is moving its domicile to Madrid.

The cause of independence has never commanded more than a narrow and fleeting majority of Catalans. But more general discontent goes far wider. It began when the Constitutional Tribunal, at the urging of the PP, struck out clauses in a new autonomy statute of 2006 that would have recognised Catalonia as a nation and strengthened its power over the teaching and use of the Catalan language.

Polls show that most Catalans want a better deal from Spain. That would probably have to involve a return to the original statute of 2006, as well as keeping more Catalan money in Catalonia and giving locals more control over infrastructure. Mr Rajoy has accepted a Socialist proposal for the Spanish parliament to begin debating constitutional reforms next year.

One way or another, in the coming weeks Catalans are likely to vote, and legally this time, for a new regional government. That would at least allow everyone to draw breath. But there is a risk that before then Catalonia will be plunged into further conflict, civil disobedience and even violence.