The Bradley effect is a theory that may explain why certain politicians do better in polling than in the actual election. The theory was named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American. Bradley was running to be the California governor in the 1982 election. Although Bradley led his white opponent in pre-election polling, he ended up losing the actual election. The Bradley effect tried to explain this by arguing that Bradley had an edge in polling because people has public pressure to be politically correct. The main difference here is that polling is done publically and voting is done privately. Therefore, while people may not actually support certain candidates, they may say they do in polling to appear politically correct.

Many people think that this effect may play a role in the 2016 elections. On the republican side, many suspect there may be a reverse Bradley effect with Donald Trump. People may be hesitant to publically support him due to heavy criticism but want to vote for him in primaries. Although Trump did worse than expected in Iowa, Iowa uses a caucus system that is quite public. New Hampshire will be a true test for Donald Trump.

Since New Hampshire uses a primary system, votes are almost entirely private and people will not have social biases interfere with their vote. Currently, FiveThirtyEight of the New York Times estimates Donald Trump will bring in about 29% of the vote. If Trump is able to soar beyond this point, that may be evidence that this reverse Bradley effect is in play due to New Hampshire’s primary system. However, if Trump does worse than 29%, this may be the beginning of the end for him.

On the Democratic side, one can make an argument that Hillary Clinton takes the role of Tom Bradley. Some people may feel social pressure to claim to support Clinton because of her gender but not vote for her in the primary. However, because Bernie Sanders has an enormous lead over Clinton, it may be hard to tell this early.

New Hampshire Winners Prediction: Donald Trump & Bernie Sanders