43 percent of Iowans surveyed said they support Democrat Fred Hubbell for governor.

Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds received support from 41 percent of Iowans, while 9 percent were undecided.

47 percent of respondents said they believe the state is "headed in the right direction."

Half of likely voters said privatizing Medicaid, budget mismanagement are problems attributed to Reynolds.

© Copyright 2018, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell edges out Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds in a race for the governor’s office that still falls within the margin of error just more than six weeks before Election Day, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Forty-three percent of likely voters say they support Hubbell, and 41 percent say they support Reynolds. Seven percent say they support Libertarian Jake Porter, and 9 percent are undecided.

A majority of Hubbell and Reynolds supporters say they will not change their minds. But about a third of supporters in each camp — 32 percent for Hubbell and 28 percent for Reynolds — say they could still be persuaded to vote for someone else.

“Neither of them have really nailed this thing down yet,” said Jennifer Duffy, an elections analyst specializing in governor’s races for Cook Political Report. “(Voters) are open to messages, and I’m sure you’ll see both parties provide those messages on a TV screen near you soon.”

The poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, questioned 801 Iowa adults, including 555 likely voters statewide September 17-20. It has a margin of error among likely voters of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Unfavorable ratings grow for Reynolds; favorable ratings up for Hubbell

Reynolds is technically an incumbent, having taken over as the state’s chief executive after former Gov. Terry Branstad left to become the U.S. ambassador to China. Reynolds, then the lieutenant governor, was sworn in as governor in May 2017.

Her approval rating as governor among all Iowans — not just likely voters — peaked at 51 percent in December 2017, fell to 47 percent in January and is now at 46 percent. Her disapproval numbers have climbed from 33 percent in January to 38 percent now. The margin of error in the poll among all Iowans is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Similarly, the share of likely voters who say they have unfavorable views of Reynolds has grown by 8 percentage points since January to reach 46 percent today. She has not increased her share of likely voters who view her favorably.

Hubbell is better known among likely voters than he was in December 2017. The share of voters saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion has fallen from 51 percent in January to 30 percent today.

The share of likely voters who now view Hubbell favorably has climbed 11 points to 42 percent. But the portion of likely voters who view him unfavorably also has climbed 9 points — to 27 percent.

Independents favor Hubbell, but there's room to grow

Among independent voters, who represent the largest share of registered voters in the state, Hubbell leads Reynolds 40 percent to 34 percent. Twelve percent say they support Porter, and 14 percent are unsure.

That presents an opportunity and a challenge for Hubbell, said Ann Selzer, president of Selzer and Co.

“While he already gets strong support among independents, he’s losing some to the Libertarian candidate,” she said. “And that is potentially a lost opportunity. His margin is just 2 points. The Libertarian candidate is getting 7 points. So, he needs to be persuasive with this bloc, not just turn them out.”

Hubbell also leads among Iowans who say they did not vote in the 2014 midterm election, by 41 percent to Reynolds’ 31 percent. Selzer said that could be an indication he’s drawing support beyond the traditional Democratic base, from people who are not regular midterm voters.

Where does Reynolds have room to grow her support? She leads Hubbell narrowly in two congressional districts, the 1st, in northeastern Iowa, and the 4th, in northwestern and north central Iowa. The 4th is the state's most heavily Republican district and represented by conservative U.S. Rep. Steve King.

“I have to think that the closeness of this race in the 4th Congressional District suggests that there’s more opportunity for her to be getting more votes there,” said Selzer, noting that Reynolds leads Hubbell by 27 points with rural voters.

Hubbell's lead in the 2nd District, in southeastern Iowa, roughly matches Reynolds' 4th District lead, but he piles up a bigger margin in the 3rd District, which stretches from Des Moines through southwest Iowa.

Support for privatized Medicaid hurts Reynolds

In TV ads and at campaign events, each campaign has lobbed a series of criticisms against its opponent, particularly as they inch closer to Election Day.

Hubbell has accused Reynolds of failing to establish her own agenda for the state; failing to address problems that have arisen after privatizing Medicaid; and mismanaging the state’s budget while shortchanging education and health care.

Among those issues, Reynolds’ supporters have the most concern about her handling of Medicaid, which faces rising costs and ongoing complaints from patients that they are being denied needed services.

Nearly half of likely voters who support Reynolds say her handling of the issue is a problem, with 17 percent calling it a “big problem” and 32 percent calling it a “little problem.” About a third — 35 percent — say it is not true that there is a problem, and 16 percent are unsure.

"When a candidate’s own supporters think something is a problem, it is a problem the campaign cannot ignore," Selzer said.

Sixty-nine percent of independents say they believe it’s a problem, with a majority — 52 percent — calling it a “big problem.”

Among all likely voters, 70 percent say Reynolds' handling of Medicaid is a problem and over half think it's a big one.

Stephanie Nortmann, a 42-year-old Cedar Rapids resident, said she is a Republican but can’t support Reynolds in November, largely because of the way she’s reacted to problems with Medicaid.

“I don’t feel anybody should be without healthcare,” Nortmann said, adding that she believes it’s a moral issue. “I think it should be something that’s affordable that covers everything they need covered. And this privatization of Iowa Medicaid has made that nearly impossible for a lot of people.”

Nortmann said she has a friend with a spinal cord injury who has experienced trouble getting services approved, and Nortmann's adult daughter has special needs and has also faced problems accessing care.

“This is very personal for me,” she said.

Reynolds gained plaudits in January during her Condition of the State address for acknowledging problems in the Medicaid system and promising to address them.

Since then, her spokeswoman, Brenna Smith, said the governor hired a new Medicaid director and a new director of the Department of Human Services, brought in new analysts, and negotiated new contracts that properly fund the Medicaid program.

But Hubbell continues to hammer Reynolds on the issue, airing a series of television ads and holding forums across the state in which he promises to immediately reverse the program’s privatization and repair the damage.

Reynolds’ supporters push back against the two other criticisms leveled against her. Majorities say it’s not true that she has failed to set her own agenda or that she has mismanaged the state’s budget. But more than half of all likely voters see her budget management as a big problem.

Refusal to release full tax returns hurts Hubbell

A firm majority of Hubbell's supporters — 57 percent — say it’s a problem that he has withheld information about his tax returns that could reveal conflicts of interest. That includes 22 percent who call it a “big problem” and 35 percent who say it’s a “small problem.”

Twenty-nine percent of his supporters don’t believe the claim is true, and 14 percent are unsure.

Independents are more likely than supporters to think Hubbell’s failure to release his full tax returns is problematic: 68 percent call it a problem, with 37 percent saying it’s a “big problem.”

Among all likely voters, two-thirds say it's a problem for Hubbell not to release more of his tax information.

Susan Wyatt, a 58-year-old Earlham resident and political independent, said she currently supports Hubbell. But she’s troubled enough by his unwillingness to release more information about his tax returns that she would consider voting for Reynolds in November.

“I think if you’re a politician and you refuse to turn over your tax returns, you’ve got to have a conflict of interest somewhere or something’s happened that you don’t want everybody to know about,” she said. “And that would bother me a lot. If you’re not turning your tax returns over and you do have a conflict of interest, then are you going to take the state’s tax money, my tax money, and give it to your friend over here that you’re trying to help out?”

Last month, Hubbell released a signed, three-page summary of his 2017 state and federal tax returns, as well as a three-page summary of his foundation’s charitable giving.

Reporters were allowed to view the documents in Hubbell’s office and report on them, but they were not allowed to make photocopies or view any of the supporting forms or documentation that would have revealed things such as sources of income and properties he owns.

Reynolds, in contrast, released 10 years’ worth of income tax returns and posted the documents online for the public to see. Her campaign immediately criticized the wealthy businessman, saying he’s choosing not to release more information in an effort to conceal problematic business and personal dealings.

Reynolds has long sought to portray Hubbell, who reported $3 million in income last year, as being too elite and wealthy to relate to average Iowans. But his supporters largely reject that message, with 67 percent saying they don’t believe it’s true. Just over one-third of independents also disagree.

Supporters also disagree with criticisms leveled by Republicans that as chairman of Younkers he shut down rural stores while enriching himself. Fifty-one percent of his supporters say they disagree with that claim, and the same majority of independents say it’s a problem.

The problem scorecard shows a majority of likely voters seeing two of the three items tested as big problems for Kim Reynolds to address. The item showing the greatest concern for Fred Hubbell — his taxes — is rated a big problem by only about one in three likely voters (36 percent).

ABOUT THE POLL

The Iowa Poll, conducted September 17-20 for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older, including 555 likely voters in the 2018 general election for governor and other offices. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. Questions based on likely voters in the 2018 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.