It’s not at all clear that there is a problem, but let’s say the Morrison government was, in fact, struggling manfully to defend Australia’s sovereignty in the face of a “Sri Lankan asylum surge” as The Australian reported on Monday morning.

If you are a government, and you face an actual problem, it’s generally best to be straightforward about it, releasing information in orderly and transparent fashion so considered judgments can be made, otherwise people might suspect you are fully intent on the selective presentation of information to try to control the narrative.

People might even (as one reporter suggested to Scott Morrison on Monday morning) get cynical about it, given stories about surges in boat arrivals do tend to arrive at politically convenient times; a happy sort of coincidence.

Anyway let’s lay out the facts as far as they can be known, or documented.

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According to the parliamentary library, there were 33 boat turnbacks between December 2013 and June 2018. In February 2019, the official running “operation sovereign borders” told a Senate estimates committee there had been 32 vessels intercepted since December 2013 “and the safe return of 800 people to their country of departure or origin”.

There could have been other ventures since this time, but in any case, The Australian on Monday morning added another five vessels to this tally, all from Sri Lanka. According to the report, all of these ventures had been intercepted successfully by Australian officials, or disrupted by Sri Lankan officials.

Now call me crazy, but that sounds like a policy working – delivering on its objectives – rather than a government battling an outbreak of shock horror, gasp, pass the smelling salts, somebody DO SOMETHING, look at those weak bastards soft on border protection, which weak bastards, look it hardly matters, let’s just go with this.

Sticking with crazy, the same news report overlaid the “surge” (of failed ventures from Sri Lanka) with the medevac repeal vote, which wasn’t expected until later in the year, but now might happen when parliament resumes next week, because ... well it wasn’t entirely clear why that would happen, at least in the world of facts.

It certainly wasn’t clear to Jacqui Lambie, the critical swing vote in the Senate, who had heard nothing about fast-tracking the medevac repeal vote until she read it on the front page of a national newspaper.

It’s also not clear what rushing to repeal the medevac regime had to do with “Peter Dutton courageously battles new sovereignty shock”.

The medevac regime, just to be clear, won’t benefit any sneaky new arrivals who arrive as a consequence of a “Sri Lankan asylum surge” (of failed people smuggling ventures). Why? Because the current procedures apply only to the cohort of people already in a regional processing country, not to any newcomers.

Again, in the world of facts.

Scott Morrison fronted the media on Monday morning and was asked whether people would be rightly suspicious about the timing of the release of this information (through a newspaper) “considering the current debate regarding the Tamil family”.

If you’ve somehow missed this debate, there has been an outpouring of criticism over the past 72 hours about the government’s attempt to deport a Tamil couple and their Australian-born children.

Strange sort of coincidence that a front-page story screaming The Sri Lankans Are Coming might show up, given that; almost like someone might be looking to change a conversation that wasn’t playing entirely their way.

Morrison was asked the obvious question at his press conference on Monday. Can you understand why some of the Australian public would be cynical about the timing? “No,” was the response.

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Just in case you’ve forgotten, Morrison was the ministerial architect of the controversial “on water matters” regime, where the government point-blank refused to disclose what was going on under its “operation sovereign borders” policy.

But now the prime minister thought it was OK to disclose what was going on, as long as it was after the fact. “It’s important that Australians understand the full perspective of the decisions that the government has to take,” Morrison said, apparently heralding a change of approach.

A reporter then bowled up the next obvious question. “Is it now the government’s policy that you will release information about boat arrivals four weeks after they come – is that now ...”

Well no, actually, it wasn’t.

Morrison said the government released information “as it believes it’s important to do so”.

Important to whom wasn’t specified.

While Morrison was pivoting on Monday to a policy of selective disclosure when it was “important”, there was also another interesting rhetorical shift.

This government prides itself on stopping the boats. This has always been a silly soundbite, because the truth is the boats haven’t stopped. But the government has certainly been hugely successful in creating an impression that they have stopped.

Now it seems the political times require a different, more nuanced impression. Morrison said on Monday people smuggling never stopped seeking to pursue its business, “it just came up against a government that was able to defeat it time and time and time and time again”.

Being forthright about some of the ventures, “I think that keeps the issue of the ever-present threat of illegal arrivals to Australia foremost in the public’s mind”.

Now why would that particular issue need to be foremost in the public’s mind?

Could partisan politics possibly be the answer to the question?