The Wuhan coronavirus has exploded in China. There are three likely scenarios for what will happen next – and the bad news is that a pandemic looks difficult to avoid

A military medical team heading to a Wuhan hospital Cheng Min/Xinhua/Alamy Live News

WITH more than 20,000 confirmed cases – and probably far more undiagnosed – the 2019-nCoV coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, seems poised to go global. The epidemic is currently still centred on the province of Hubei, but the virus has travelled to at least 23 countries, and further epidemics seemed possible.

Genetic analysis suggests that the virus isn’t changing much in humans, becoming neither more nor less harmful. So where is the outbreak likely to go from here?

There are three options, says Eric Toner at Johns …