Self-Refuting Message

Jeb Bush has named his PAC “Right to Rise.” He has expressed concern about the hardening of class lines and the concentration of hereditary advantage among an elite few. "How do we restore America's faith in the moral promise of our great nation that any child born today can reach further than their parents?” Jeb Bush asked in a speech in Detroit in February, 2015. This message might resonate at a time when so many doubt that a person can start poor in America, work hard, and become rich. But could there possibly be a worse messenger: a man born at the top, who has vaulted into the front rank of the 2016 race thanks—not to any widespread excitement over his candidacy—but to his family’s unrivaled fundraising operation, developed over three generations at the highest levels of national politics?

A Candidate Who Can’t Attack His Opponent

Barring some rip in the space-time continuum, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2016. She should be an easy target! But the one Republican least able to attack her is Jeb Bush, who shares almost every one of her vulnerabilities: Yesterday’s politics? Dynastic entitlement? The use of political connection for financial advantage? Jeb Bush will want to talk about none of those things. The explanation will be given that he wants to run a “positive campaign.” The reality will be a tacit pact to avoid awkward topics, a pact to which a less vulnerable Republican would not have to accede. And while a positive campaign sounds like a welcome development, it will bump into another reality …

The Wrong Kind of Moderate

Jeb Bush appeals to the more moderate-Republican voter. A mischievous survey by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found that Scott Walker led among Republicans who believed that the federal government was plotting a military takeover of Texas, while Jeb Bush led among those who did not. This is the kind of data that might normally be filed under, “Ask a silly question …” Still, it indicates something about where the different candidates find their support. But as Jeb Bush himself will insist, moderation in tone is not the same as moderation in content. "“I’m not angry. I’m not trying to divide, I’m trying to persuade. Perhaps moderate in tone is misinterpreted as moderate in beliefs,” he told Maggie Haberman of The New York Times. After the jolt of the 2012 defeat, some Republicans began to talk about modulating the “makers versus takers” approach of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and their brain trust, and developing a platform more congenial to the middle class. But parties allow their aspiring leaders only so many deviations, and Jeb Bush has exhausted his heterodoxy budget on immigration and the Common Core curriculum. On economic issues, he will not have scope for innovation.

And there’s little sign that he has any appetite for it. He has released few specifics on economic questions. In the past, he’s indicated that he might be willing to exchange deficit-reducing tax increases for spending cuts. But all the early indications suggest that his offer to the middle class won’t improve much on Romney’s: big tax cuts aimed at the highest earners, less healthcare coverage, and entitlement cuts.