For John Kasich, past success puts pressure on for CNN debate

John Kasich’s days of strolling through a debate on a free pass have ended.

Six weeks ago, he snuck into the GOP’s first debate, boosted by coverage of his launch and a bit of well-timed advertising in early-primary New Hampshire. And he nailed it, delivering one of the field’s best performances over a backdrop of home-crowd cheers in Cleveland.

So when he takes the stage Wednesday night at the Reagan Presidential Library in southern California, expectations will run high, raising the bar for what it will take for Kasich to wow audiences. And from now on, Kasich will face debate audiences that aren’t full of admiring Ohio Republicans.

While he’s rising in New Hampshire polls, voters still don’t know much about him elsewhere in the country.

“After a really strong first performance, it’s going to be difficult for him to duplicate that,” said Aaron Kall, director of the debate program at the University of Michigan. With expectations higher, Kall said, “You have to really deliver.”

How Kasich can shine

Kasich has become a contender, although not a national frontrunner – so he could face an attack or two from rival candidates. Still, top-tier candidates, especially Jeb Bush, are more likely to take on Donald Trump, as they watch their prospects shrink with every Trump rally and Donald-centric poll.

“I don’t think anybody is going to be too impressed on Thursday morning with a candidate who took on John Kasich,” said John Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College and former research director for the Republican National Committee.

But attacks on – and by – Trump can allow Kasich to shine, GOP consultants said. The governor has avoided tweaking the billionaire, and Trump, in turn, largely ignores him.

“We’re still in the introductory stage of the campaign,” said Kasich’s national strategist, John Weaver.

So expect another litany of references to Kasich’s mailman father and balanced budgets.

“If he looks presidential because everybody else has on their roller derby outfit, well, then, that’s fine, too,” Weaver said.

If he’s attacked

Ammunition for would-be Kasich attackers abounds, but isn’t likely to surprise the governor. A plummeting Scott Walker, who helped make Wisconsin a right-to-work state, could challenge Kasich for backing off anti-union efforts after Ohio voters overturned a bill that limited collective-bargaining rights for public employees. Or Walker could brag he didn’t expand Medicaid, as Kasich did under President Barack Obama’s health care law.

Kasich has adeptly fielded those criticisms and more on the campaign trail. Against Walker, Kall said, Kasich can tout his all-time-high 61 percent approval rating in Ohio, while Walker’s popularity hit an all-time low of 39 percent last month.

Kasich’s challenge lies in not what he says in response, but how he says it. In this presidential campaign, he’s sought to tame the abrasive side of his personality – to have fun, smile more, avoid fights. Engaging in a shouting match on a debate stage could undermine all that.

The Reagan factor

Expect to see one defense at the ready: Kasich has been quick to point out that former President Ronald Reagan also expanded Medicaid. He could invoke Reagan as he emphasizes his anti-attack philosophy among raining barbs Wednesday night. Reagan popularized the saying: Thou shalt not speak ill of any Republican.

And Kasich is likely to boast he campaigned for Reagan before it was cool, in Reagan's failed 1976 primary challenge to then-President Gerald Ford.

“He was a practical guy who was conservative,” Kasich told the Washington Post. “I’m sort of the same guy.”

The debate’s impressive scenery will inspire more than a few candidates’ answers. Reagan’s Air Force One will loom behind the debaters.

“The conservatives remember (Reagan) as a conservative champion; the moderates remember him as a practical guy who got stuff done,” Pitney said. “Which Republican will look at Trump and say, ‘Mr. Trump, you’re no Ronald Reagan’?”

Be there with Chrissie Thompson

Follow The Enquirer’s Kasich campaign reporter, Chrissie Thompson, on Twitter at @CThompsonEnq and on Cincinnati.com, as she reports Wednesday from the Republican presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif.

Watch with fellow political junkies

Join The Enquirer and the Greater Cincinnati Politics Facebook Group for a debate watch party starting at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday at the The Pub at Rookwood Mews, 2692 Madison Road. The debate starts at 8 p.m. on CNN.

For more information and to RSVP, visit to the Greater Cincinnati Politics group on Facebook.