An electron microscope image made available by the U.S. National Institutes of Health shows the Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, orange, that causes COVID-19.

While China claims its gotten Covid-19 under control with less cases reported on a day to day basis as of mid February, 2020, outbreaks in the rest of the world keep doubling about every five days.

What does that look like? It means the Princess Diamond and a new outbreak in Iran, with the first 2 cases reported already being dead, points to this thing not being over.

Earlier in February, Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg, those cases below the surface. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60–80%. That means 60% of the planet could get the flu like novel coronavirus.

What does that look like? The research from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention is based on more than 72,000 patient records of COVID-19 reported nationwide through Feb. 11.

Only another 14 per cent were classified as severe, causing symptoms such as pneumonia and shortness of breath.

Total case fatality rate was 2.3 per cent.

Among the 1,023 deaths, most were among those aged 60 and older , and many had other medical conditions such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

, and many had other such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. About four out of five cases were considered mild, and didn’t lead to pneumonia, the researchers said. For young people with a strong immune system, there may not even be symptoms.

were considered mild, and didn’t lead to pneumonia, the researchers said. For young people with a strong immune system, there may not even be symptoms. The researchers said the fatality rate for males was 2.8 per cent and 1.7 per cent for females.

and 1.7 per cent for females. Covid-19 therefore is most dangerous for men over 60 with pr-existing medical conditions. That’s really all you need to know.

However cases outside of China are accelerating, and those places are unlikely to be able to implement Draconian social distancing as aggressively as Hubei Province. China must be given credit for their State control of citizens to limit the economic damage locally.

However, given the spread in Japan, Iran, Singapore, Hong Kong and more countries being added to the total list, you get an idea this isn’t going away necessarily as temperatures warm up in the Spring.

Not counting Princess Diamond cases, on February 19th, Japan overtook the number of cases in Singapore. Iran 2 mysterious deaths likely means there is a serious cluster now in the Middle East.

Likely outbreak in Japan

Possible outbreak in Iran

A single case in Egypt (the first in Africa) show spread in Africa might have already occurred.

China may have slowed down the virus with incredible social distancing, quarantines and Martial law and coordinated lock-downs for millions of people, but the novel coronavirus will likely spread elsewhere and beyond in the months ahead.

Cases today outside of China make up only 1.4% of total cases, but this is likely to increase in the weeks ahead. The obvious thesis is then, the Coronavirus Outbreak is just beginning outside of China.

When you have a virus this contagious and we have no antibodies or vaccines for it, I think nature wins over man. That 60% of the population could be infected is pretty simple deductive reasoning. No need to panic, but think for yourself. We live in an era of echo-bubbles, conformity to group-think, information manipulation and censorship.

Medium can ban coronavirus tags, and not curate stories like these, the world can censor content and plaster WHO official stats, but this doesn’t change the reality of the spread of this contagious virus. “Coronavirus” tags on Medium have been scrubbed and now show no stories with it.

Update — 22:00 February 19th, EST addition: South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has confirmed another 31 new cases, bringing the total number of people infected to 82. This means Covid-19 is spreading in Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong making it less of a “Chinese” virus, but one where people of Asian descent might continue to face stigmatization.

If we count Princess Diamond cases who are Japanese, there are well over 700 cases in Japan.