An EU crackdown on bankers' bonuses in the City of London will just lead to a surge in basic salaries and other initiatives to circumvent regulations, experts warned on Saturday.

Banks, still unpopular for their leading role in the financial crisis, are keeping their avoidance plans under wraps, but industry figures were happy to boast privately that they could run rings round Brussels.

"Banks are pretty good at getting round rules," said one senior financier. "If there are restrictions on us paying bonuses, we will be looking at paying some other kind of allowances."

The High Pay Centre said it feared banks would increase basic salaries to compensate for any bonus cap, arguing that such a move would be unjustified.

Bonuses have risen to the top of the agenda before the publication this week of proposals from the European Banking Authority, which would limit extra payouts for anyone whose salary is above €500,000 (£420,000).

This is in addition to earlier EBA proposals, which are scheduled to take effect in 2014-15, that will require bonuses for certain staff inside the EU to be capped at 100% of their salary – or 200% with the approval of shareholders.

The new proposals – leaked at the end of last week – could lead to up to 10 times as many London bankers than previously expected being brought into the pay net, say experts. Many in the City warn that draconian EU measures against bonuses will chase staff to join rivals from Asia or the US.

Nicholas Stretch, a tax partner with the City law firm CMS Cameron McKenna, said that basic salaries would have to be increased to compensate for any bonus cap. "People will have to increase salaries, but this will increase employers' fixed costs and means banks will have to pay more in the way of compensation should they want to lay off staff in the bad times," he said.

The High Pay Centre said City bankers produce an endless stream of "unsubstantiated scaremongering" whenever the EU or other regulators threaten further action against banks.

"We should call their [bankers'] bluff," said Deborah Hargreaves, founding director of the High Pay Centre. "Let's see what happens. I do not think that they are such rare talents. There is a range of people who could do these jobs."

But Hargreaves also fears that banks will find ways round any new rules and agrees they are "very good" at this. Nevertheless, she believes a bonus crackdown is still worthwhile and can be expected to extend eventually to the whole of big business.