One Nation surges, the LNP sinks and Labor holds the line in the first opinion poll of the Queensland election campaign.

The Courier-Mail today has the first opinion poll of the Queensland election campaign, showing Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, up from 51-49 at the last such poll three months ago. However, perhaps the bigger news is that One Nation is up three on the primary vote to 18%, while the Liberal National Party is down four to 32%, with Labor steady on 35%. The Greens are also up two points to 9%, potentially helping to explaining the government’s new tack on the Adani project.

The leaders’ ratings are little changed, with Annastacia Palaszczuk up two on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 42%, and Tim Nicholls up one to 28% and down one to 40%. Palaszczuk holds a 43-29 lead as preferred premier, up from 42-30 last time. Field work dates are not provided, but the sample size was 900.