Today’s gambling preview looks at the projected total yardage over/unders of quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott, and wide receiver Amari Cooper.

There’s a bevy of prop bets out for the upcoming NFL season, with these courtesy of My Bookie. With that in mind, it’s time to see if there’s any value amongst the Dallas Cowboys and their newest incarnation of triplets.

Dak Prescott: 3,875.5 yards (-115 over, -125 under)

Bettors to this point are of the belief that Prescott will fail to reach that milestone this year. But are they right?

Through the first three seasons of Prescott’s career he has done a number of things extremely well. His volume, however, has always been on the lower side. Whether that’s due to a conservative run-first game plan or because Prescott isn’t capable of airing it out on a regular basis is certainly up for debate. To date, Prescott has only eclipsed the yardage total required for the over once, when he threw for 3,885 yards last season. An average Prescott season comes out to a mere 3,495.5 which would fall well short of the mark.

At first glance it would seem to be a big ask for Prescott to make those who bet the over a happy group, but there’s a couple of things to consider here. The first is the impact that Amari Cooper had on the Dallas passing attack last season. Prior to his arrival, Prescott was on pace for a dismal 3,239 yards. After Cooper stepped onto the field, his pace over a full season jumped to 4,388 yards. And while he has only thrown for enough yards to hit this season’s projected over/under once, Prescott was well on pace to do it in his rookie campaign before sitting a meaningless Week 17 bout with the Philadelphia Eagles.

One of the defining traits of the Cowboys quarterback to this point has been his durability, starting every game in his career (though he was pulled early in the aforementioned Eagles Week 17 game). A word of caution for the most optimistic fans who will take the over: If Prescott misses time to injury or if the Cowboys are winning enough games to rest him before the playoffs, hitting the over will be a tall task.

The Verdict: Take the over. Not only is it better value, but with Prescott and Cooper having a full offseason together, Prescott’s incredible durability and perhaps a more aggressive game plan from Kellen Moore, Prescott’s first 4,000 yard passing season is on the horizon.

Continue for Elliott and Cooper…

Gallery 2019 Dallas Cowboys preseason schedule: Time, dates, opponents View 11 photos View 11 photos

Ezekiel Elliott: 1,380.5 yards (-130 over, -110 under)

Elliott has hit the over on this in two out of three seasons. The exception is the 2017 season in which Elliott missed six games due to suspension. In fact, Elliott has never played a complete 16-game season so far in his career, though it isn’t an issue of durability. The two games he missed (not due to suspension) was to rest as Dallas had locked up a playoff spot in both 2016 and 2018.

Throughout his career, Elliott has averaged 101.2 rushing yards per game, though it has decreased an average of 4.367 yards every year. Most of that is due to a massive drop off between 2016 and 2017, which seems an unlikely rate to continue. However, in a worst case scenario of Elliott dropping to around 90 yards per game, off to around 90 yards per game, he would be in danger of not hitting the required 1,381 yards without playing a full 16 game slate.

Elliott has avoided suspension from the Las Vegas kerfuffle at EDC earlier this offseason but rumors swirl about his contract situation. At this point there should be no real concern of him sitting out games. The issue comes down to this: Will the Cowboys lean on Elliott as heavily as they have in his first three seasons? And if so, is Elliott capable of shouldering the ridiculous workload without missing time? While all signs point to yes, any injury or even the slightest drop off in his play puts the over in serious danger.

The Verdict: Despite the pending return of center Travis Frederick and hopes of improved offensive line play, the price to pay to take the over is too high given the risks outlined above. Bet neither. The money is better spent on him leading the league in rushing than it is paying a premium on hitting this particular over.

Continue for Cooper…

Gallery 2019 Dallas Cowboys preseason schedule: Time, dates, opponents View 11 photos View 11 photos

Amari Cooper: 1,100.5 yards. (-130 over, -110 under)

Cooper is the truest wild card of the bunch. He has had 1,100 yards once in his young career. That came in 2016, his second year in the league with the Oakland Raiders. If Cooper wants to be paid as one of the league’s best, this is a number he needs to clear with ease.

What Cooper did or didn’t do with the Raiders is almost irrelevant at this point except to show the rejuvenation he experienced with the Cowboys after being traded mid-season. In the six games Cooper played with the Raiders he averaged a lowly 46.7 yards per game, which would pace to only 747 for the entire season. In his nine games with the Cowboys, Cooper nearly doubled his average to 80.6 yards per game leaving him on pace for 1,289 yards for a full season.

The question around Cooper is consistency. In four of his six games with the Raiders he had less than 20 yards. In four of the nine games with the Cowboys he had less than 40. His monstrous performances more than made up for the difference in Dallas last year, but he would need to average 69 yards a contest to hit the over. Will a full offseason with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense make him a more consistent player?

The Verdict: Entering a contract year, Cooper has millions of reasons he needs to perform at a high level week in and week out. Even with a couple hiccups along the way Cooper has proven he has the big game potential to make up for his off-weeks. Despite the premium it costs, take the over.

Gallery 2019 Dallas Cowboys preseason schedule: Time, dates, opponents View 11 photos View 11 photos Gallery Cowboys 10 best offensive weapons in 2019 View 20 photos View 20 photos

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