There seems to currently be a not insignificant number of readers on SaH freaking out about potential signings not materializing in the winter window. Especially looking around the league and seeing clubs like Atlanta potentially dropping $12+ million on a guy like Barco, and LAFC bringing in Vela and making subtle moves. However I personally think these fears are overblown.

First, the Sounders can and will spend money (when it makes sense).

Right now there is the rumor that Seattle is being cheap, which I think is simply not the case.

If you pull up the list of top MLS transfers on transfermarkt (somewhat dated), Seattle has the 4th, 6th and 17th highest transfers paid out (Dempsey, Lodeiro and Martins) respectively. Only the Galaxy have more players on this list currently, and while Atlanta has splashed a lot of cash recently they still were knocked out in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs at home against on of the smallest pay-rolled teams in MLS. They might have spent a lot of money, but haven't actually won anything yet.

If you look back last year at rumors you can see the Sounders have a budget to spend. We had two transfer rumors and two free agent signings pop up related to DP wingers/attacking mids. Derlis Gonzalez, Hiroshi Kiyotake, Keisuke Honda and Hilal Soudani. Derlis & Kiyotake, the two we sort of have rumors offers were made are guys who were in their prime and likely would (and have) commanded transfer fee's in the range of Lodeiro. The Free Agent's would be likely also be in the DP range salary wise based off their historical resumes.

Derlis Gonzalez: Didn't sign because Kiev was trying to jerk the Sounders around on the transfer. A deal was made and they tried to back out and change the price. We were probably willing to match at least his valuation before the breakdown. While objectively spending say a few million more wouldn't change the salary cap impact any, it would set a precedent that clubs can walk over Seattle's FO which would make it harder to make future signings. If we played ball that might mean this season or next... we get a deal 90% done land then the selling club tries to change the agreement. It's like negotiating with terrorists, it sucks that you can't, but doing so would legitimize shitty transfer practices.

Hiroshi Kiyotake: It sounds like we had an $5-$6 million dollar offer lined up and Sevilla looked like they were going to accept it. However Kiyotake was interested in returning to Japan and Sevilla it looks like did him a solid and sold him for around that amount back to Cerzo Osaka where he played before making the jump to Europe. I can't really fault Garth if a competitive bid was put in and the player wanted to return home. Ultimately its why we got Morris over Werder, maybe it wasn't the most lucrative or best move career wise, but had intangibles that just made it superior to Seattle. Maybe more money could have been shoveled Kiyotake's way, but I would rather have a guy who wants to be here over one who really wanted to go home.

What this says is for the right player Seattle is willing to drop $5-10 million dollars on a player in their prime from Europe. It matches the rumors last season and is 100% in the ball park of what we have paid historically on our big money moves in Dempsey, Lodeiro, Martins. Where other teams are picking up DP players from second tier European Leagues or starters for decent South American sides for $2-$3 million we look to have our sights set higher and these big moves have historically taken time to put together and almost always happen come summer. Some of these big transfers happen in the winter window, but not too many.

Secondly, This year stops the post-season turnover & hopefully the early season hangover.

I have mentioned before in prior fan posts the amount of first team turnover we have experienced year over year starting all the way back after 2013's clusterfuck end. To summarize we have regularly replaced about almost a dozen players... many of them starters or important rotational pieces each year.

2014: we fired the players and shipped out Burch, EJ, Hurtado, Ianni, Rosales, Zakuani, Gspurning,Shalrie + 9 more players.

2015: we didn't turn over too much which makes sense since we had just won two trophies. Cooper, Anibaba & Yedlin were really the only two important players we lost... we had shipped out +11 more, but they were mostly depth pieces that never saw the field like Parsemain

2016: Out abysmal start could be explained by losing a huge chunk of players again. Pappa, Neagle, Martins, Pineda, Barrett, Leo, Rose etc. + 8 more. We had made many moves the summer before, but the key is we lost Martins who really was the lynchpin of the team.

2017: We then pretty much shed all the old journeymen we brought in for 2015 losing. Mears, Valdez, Ivanschitz, Gomez, Friberg, Scott, Fernandez etc. + 10 more We brought in youngers guys to replace them on average with Leerdam, Rodriguez, Bruin, Shipp being 4-5 years younger in many cases.

2018: This year so far we lost Miller, Neagle, Jones, Evans, Mallace. Other than Jones and Miller as our primary backup at Goalkeeper, we lost guys who played zero minutes (Mallace) or Sub >500 in Neagle & Evans and aren't starters any longer.



This means the weak starts we had recently in 2016 & 2017 I think are partially caused by excessive turnover. Right now we are keeping the core of the team together for at least this next year. Toronto stomped the league this year because they slightly tweaked their lineup from the year prior. They pretty much gave guys on the roster already more minutes (Delgado & Raheem) and then plugged the gaps in attack and defense with a pair of TAM guys in Vazquez and Mavinga.

I think Seattle as a result of this low turnover we have a serious chance of competing for the shield even if we don't make a big money move.

Thirdly, TAM changed the game of acquisitions, but Garth knows that.

Tam has changed the salary cap landscape of MLS, it has made it so guys who would have been DP's in prior years are no longer. While many of the 2015 moves weren't great in the long haul. (They felt like short term win now moves that did ultimately win us the cup in 2016). The signing of Valdez & Buydown of Alonso meant we took advantage of the rule the very first window it was applied. If the rule was designed to let the Galaxy sign Giovanni Dos Santos... we were the second team to use it to bring in Valdez & Torres.

Garth has made TAM signings that other teams would be spending on DP targets. LA, NER & Minnesota bought washed up centerbacks in Ciani, Angoua & Demidov with TAM. They had a scramble button where they needed to make impact signings and plug holes in defense. Other teams have struggled to make smart TAM moves too Dallas whiffed on a fullback that hasn't even played a minute for them.

When we needed to improve our defense, we made a move for Leerdam... a guy who just won a Cup for his Vitesse and was a 27 year old starting in the Eredivise. If you compare the signings... Leerdam helped Seattle bounce back and form an impressive defensive unit that held teams scoreless until the final game of the year. The other teams failed to make the playoffs. I think this shows that Garth and our scouting team is making sure we get quality players rather than panic and see what is available

With regards to Victor Rodriguez, he did not set the league on fire. However we still picked up a guy who for most of his career has been a starting winger in La Liga (albiet for poor teams). While he wasn't able to be an every game starter this year its clear he was a more effective attacking player in his limited minutes than guys like Fernandez was at the year start. Other teams have spent more money on guys who don't look anymore effective than Rodriguez (Portland and Blanco or hell even Melano for instance, or Dallas with Lamah).

Fourthly, The Real Offseason is 2018

Next year is when I think the real changes will be made to the team. Right now our team is still somewhat hamstrung by contracts/players that were signed before Garth took charge. These are contracts that make sense and are for good players... but they are for good players on the back end of their careers. Marshall, Dempsey, Alonso and Torres will see their contracts end at this time next year. These players are four of the highest paid at the club and occupy key positions on the team. Once they are off the books, (either gone or re-signed to final professional deals) there are suddenly 2 DP slots that will be open (Dempsey, Alonso) and one TAM (Torres) and potentially one near TAM level contract (Marshall) In total its roughly $2,000,000 in salary cap space coming off the books.

In Conclusion,

Even if we don't see big splashy signings this off-season I think Seattle is well prepared to compete with the rest of the league without overhauling the roster. I expect Seattle to pick up a TAM piece and DP this summer, and then in the 2019 preseason, have a lot of salary cap room to make changes to a team that will need some tinkering. Then unless players drop off a cliff I don't really see us making big changes for another 2-3 seasons going into the 2022 World Cup.