On Monday a poll by Lord Ashcroft showed that a majority of Scots would now support independence. While some have described this as a shock volte-face in the country’s political leanings, I think the reaction of the masses would be more accurately summarised as: “Well, duh!” Lamenting the constitutional omnishambles Britain finds itself in is after all a daily occurrence.

The opposition parties were quick to roll out their well-worn disapprovals in the guise of “concern”, stating that another referendum would be “divisive”. One can’t help but conclude said parties have been living under a rock for the last three years. And now that Boris Johnson is prime minister, a man as popular in Scotland as the poll tax, it should come as no surprise that the electorate has had enough of being yoked politically to our English neighbours.

Given the stark cross-border split of the Brexit vote the irony of this “union” isn’t lost on Scots. Being dragged into something you don’t want and didn’t vote for by a government that has systematically harmed the most vulnerable hardly predisposes a populace to unity. For once I agree with the opposition: independence is not the way forward for the UK – and that is precisely the point.

In the years since Scotland’s 2014 referendum the spectre of independence has been ever-present, but its shape has changed. It is no longer an ideal that speaks only to 45% of people; it has taken the form of an exit strategy – perhaps the only realistic one there is. Brexit and Johnson have offered us a glimpse into a scrying mirror, showing us what the UK will become. The ugliness that has emerged in such a short period has been staggering. Hate crimes have risen. EU citizens who have made Scotland their home are being made to feel unwelcome. Two decades of peace in Northern Ireland is under threat. All of this before we’ve even left. Given that we now have a prime minister marching us towards a catastrophic no deal, there are few reasons other than our shared history to stick it out. History alone is not enough. To stay while the United Kingdom defaces itself would be an egregious act of self-harm.

Play Video 0:37 Boris Johnson booed as he visits Scotland – video

Even for those who don’t consider themselves politically minded, the years since the 2014 vote have been a rude awakening. With the perpetual chaos of Brexit and ringside seats to the Trump presidency circus, politics cannot be ignored. The status quo can no longer be relied upon. If there is one positive to arise from this mess, it’s that people have been spooked out of their complacency.

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That is not to say that this poll represents a sudden embrace of the nationalist agenda. For a considerable number now propping up that favourable percentage, it is a case of supporting the least-worst option. The choice is different from 2014 – it is between an independent Scotland and a post-Brexit UK – a depressingly high-stakes game of “would you rather”. For many, neither scenario is what they want, but if they have to pick one, the former is preferable. It is a contingent majority at best – it cannot be relied upon, and must not be taken for granted by the SNP. A fresh independence campaign would have to speak directly to the concerns of our present situation. But Nicola Sturgeon still has to tackle the arguments that helped defeat her last time. Those pesky economic questions that hobbled the 2014 campaign are not going away. In fact, they’re even more critical as the economic consequences of Brexit continue to be felt.

Brexit has done the heavy lifting for a second shot at independence, and Johnson is undoubtedly a boon for the cause. Now Scotland is persuadable – but only if the campaign offers a clear path out of this shambles.

• Vonny Leclerc is an arts journalist and social activist