Norges Bank Papers

Evaluation of Norges Bank’s projections for 2014 and 2015

Series: Norges Bank Papers Number: 3/2016

Norges Bank's projections for inflation and economic developments are an important basis for the formulation of monetary policy. Analyses of forecast errors can help Norges Bank to make better projections and improve its understanding of the disturbances to which the economy is exposed. This Paper provides an evaluation of Norges Bank's projections for 2014 and 2015. Overall, the projections performed fairly well.

This article starts with a brief overview of economic developments through 2014 and 2015 and is followed by a comparison with Norges Bank's projections for the same period. Finally, the most important forecast errors are briefly discussed and the Bank's projections are compared with the projections of other forecasters.