Dan Froomkin, in a column that he could have written in 2003 or 2004 or 2005 or 2006 or 2007, dissects yet another version of the Bush victory speech, while Basra and Baghdad are in chaos (again):

As fighting rages in Basra, the White House is unleashing a forceful spin campaign to frame the Iraqi government’s offensive there as a positive outcome of the U.S. troop surge and a symbol of better days to come.

Speaking to an invitation-only audience at an Air Force base in Dayton, Ohio, this morning, President Bush argued that the Basra incursion “shows the progress the Iraqi security forces have made during the surge” and “demonstrates to the Iraqi people that their government is committed to protecting them. . . .

“The enemy, you know, will try to fill the TV screens with violence,” he scoffed. “But the ultimate result will be this: Terrorists and extremists in Iraq will know they have no place in a free and democratic society.”

But is the bloodshed in Basra an example of a unified central government asserting itself and the Iraqi army standing up? Or is it further evidence of the internecine strife ravaging the country? Will Basra become a symbol of the restoration of the rule of law? Or will it turn out to be a step toward heightened violence?

There is plenty of reason to doubt the White House spin. Just look at what’s happening on the ground, compare that to what the U.S. military is saying about it, and recall the administration’s many previous statements of optimism about Iraq.