Evaluating Where the Knicks Go post-Carmelo Anthony

After the Carmelo Anthony trade, there’s a renewed sense of hope at Madison Square Garden

(Keith Allison)

Nearly seven years ago, I stopped by Madison Square Garden on my way home from tennis practice before Carmelo Anthony’s first game as a Knick. I didn’t have tickets to the event and I wasn’t planning on buying any off a scalper. No, I walked inside 4 Pennsylvania Avenue so that I could experience the dawn of a new day for New York basketball. I wanted to see the excitement prominently displayed on the faces of fellow fans. I hoped to feel any sense of basketball mediocrity over the years wash away.

News broke this past Saturday that the Knicks traded Anthony to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Six and a half years later, the Knicks are further away from championship aspirations than they were on that February night. The Melo-Knicks marriage was a challenging and contentious relationship with fleeting moments of joy that culminated in an ugly, drawn out divorce.

Yet now, there’s a greater sense of hope.

Breaking down the trade

Admittedly, I hated this deal at first. I still don’t like it but I understand why it was executed. The Knicks traded Anthony for a more expensive version of Willy Hernangomez (12.46 times more expensive this season, to be exact) in center Enes Kanter, small forward Doug McDermott and a second-round pick. In a vacuum, this is an underwhelming return for a perennial All-Star.

The problem is that you can’t look at this trade in a vacuum and Anthony is no longer anywhere near the All-Star starter he once was. Anthony made it clear that he was willing to accept a trade to only three teams: the Houston Rockets, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Thunder. The instant thought when we first learned Anthony had opened up his list was that a bidding war could ensue. This, however, was not the case.

For starters, there was nothing of value to New York that Houston wanted to part with to acquire Anthony. The Rockets didn’t want to trade Eric Gordon or Trevor Ariza, which meant that some team had to take Ryan Anderson and his long, expensive contract. The Knicks were not interested and rightfully so.

Then there was the Cavaliers, who apparently offered New York Iman Shumpert, Channing Frye and veteran minimum contracts. Factor in New York’s aversion to trade Anthony within the Eastern Conference and the only team left was the Thunder. The Portland Trail Blazers had the potential to be a better trade partner with the Knicks than the Thunder thanks to Maurice “Mo” Harkless and fillers, but Anthony was unwilling to accept a trade to the Pacific Northwest. So the Thunder were able to trade for Anthony without a bidding war ensuing.

I went into this scenario hoping for, at minimum, two of the following four things:

A young player

An expiring contract

A draft pick

Salary cap relief

Kanter (player option for 2018–19) and McDermott (restricted free agent in 2018) are 25 years old. Factor in Chicago’s second round pick is likely to fall between 31 and 35 as well as $26,243,760 in salary being shipped out and $21,917,508 coming in, and the trade covers all four bases. It may not be the most optimal trade package for New York but it checks off all the boxes.

The Knicks didn’t get anyone substantial, and because of that, it also gives them the chance to improve their odds of obtaining a higher draft pick. New York was never going to get fair value for Anthony, especially when the forward would only accept a trade to 10.3% of the NBA (with the Knicks obviously excluded). We saw how little Paul George on a (likely) expiring contract was traded for from the Indiana Pacers to the Thunder. While Anthony has the potential to be a lethal spot-up shooter, the 33-year old wasn’t going to net an insane return like the 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. Besides, acquiring a win-now guard or wing could have given the Knicks more wins this season than they are hoping to have.

New York can now move on from the Anthony era and focus on rebuilding. Of the 15 players signed to guaranteed contracts on the Knicks, a staggering eight are 25 years old or younger.

The numbers game

The Knicks currently have $66,459,446 in guaranteed contracts and $27,423,164 in player options for the 2018 season. If every player with a player option exercised it (Kanter, Ron Baker and Kyle O’Quinn), the Knicks would have $93,882,610 in salaries. With the salary cap currently projected to be $102,000,000 next season, the Knicks would have only $8,117,390 to spend in free agency.

However, New York would either have to sign their first round draft selection or deal with his cap hold, which would be 120% his salary. The higher the draft pick, the higher the salary/cap hold and the less New York would have to spend in free agency. So if the Knicks picked, say, fifth overall (which is where Tankathon has them), that would be $4,469,400 multiplied by 120% based on the cap hold, which would equate to $5,363,280. That would leave $2,754,110 in cap space when free agency starts on July 1st.

But wait, there’s more! The Knicks are expected to have two restricted free agents, McDermott and Mindaugas Kuzminskas. McDermott’s cap hold will be $9,884,982 (which is 300% of this season’s salary) while Kuzminskas’ will be $3,936,933 (which is 130% of this season’s salary). Then we need to factor in the Knicks’ cap holds for Ramon Sessions and Michael Beasley, and before we know it, the Knicks are well over the salary cap before free agency even begins. Even if New York renounced the cap holds for these four players, $2,754,110 wouldn’t be enough for the Knicks to sign anyone of significance nor take on a salary dump.

Kanter’s an excellent offensive player who has reportedly lost 33 pounds this off-season and has been working on his defense. He came off the bench for the Thunder and was able to feast against second units, averaging 14.3 points per game and 6.7 rebounds per game in 21.3 minutes. Another reason Kanter came off the bench was because of his poor defense. According to ESPN, Kanter ranked 63rd in defensive real plus-minus out of 66 qualifying centers last season.

Kanter’s player option is worth $18,622,514. Would it be in New York’s best interests to trade Kanter or try to keep him long term? With Joakim Noah signed for an additional three more seasons plus Porzingis and Willy Hernangomez looking for minutes, letting Kanter build up his value and then trading him could be best for the Knicks.

Would it be better for Kanter to opt out and walk, giving New York more money in cap space, or for the Knicks to trade Kanter? And in a league trending smaller, where would the 6'11" big man go? Perhaps one location could be the Dallas Mavericks, a team that finished dead last in the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Kanter could provide Dallas with some insurance in the event that talks with Nerlens Noel go south. In fact, even if Noel does re-sign with Dallas, Kanter would be a welcomed addition to a young team comprised of Noel, Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr. The Mavericks also have only $41,269,318 in guaranteed salaries for the 2018–19 season.

McDermott, meanwhile, is a strong shooter from three (39.4% career) but is a poor defender. Per ESPN’s Ian Begley, McDermott “ranked 70th out of 70 qualifying small forwards in defensive real plus-minus.” Either McDermott can become a contributor off the bench or the Knicks renounce his cap hold and remain more financially flexible. As long as New York doesn’t bid against itself like with the Baker signing, the team will be in a fine position with McDermott.

What’s next for New York?

The Knicks have 15 players on fully guaranteed contracts, four players on non-guaranteed contracts and one player on a two-way contract. With the Knicks waiving Chasson Randle to facilitate the Anthony trade, New York has only three players signed to guaranteed contracts who are capable of playing the point consistently: Sessions, Frank Ntilikina and Ron Baker. Look for the Knicks to trade at least one player to make room for Jarrett Jack, who is currently one of the four players signed to a non-guaranteed deal. Here’s what head coach Jeff Hornacek recently said about the almost 34-year old Jack:

He’s a veteran guy who’s been in playoffs, he’s tough-minded, and he’s a talker out there, he’s a leader. He’s out there kind of giving guys hints what to do. He’s pushing guys when he thinks they should get back on defense. So it’s a voice that we need on this team to help out.

I know what you’re thinking: Jack’s washed. Why try to keep him?

This season’s starting point guard is either a) a 19-year old rookie in Ntilikina, who is widely considered more of a project than his fellow rookie point guards, b) a 31-year old Ramon Sessions, who has started 143 of 663 career regular season games (21.6%) and hasn’t averaged more than 20 minutes per game since the 2013–14 season, or c) a second-year player in Baker who has yet to show he’s a capable shooter. There needs to be a little more depth at the 1 now that Randle is gone.

The most likely candidate to be traded before the season starts and open up a roster spot should be Kyle O’Quinn. The big man is making $4,087,500 this year and can opt out of his contract after the season. O’Quinn is behind Porzingis, Kanter, Hernangomez and likely Joakim Noah on the depth chart and should lose minutes to Lance Thomas and possibly Beasley at the 4 spot as well.

Final thoughts

Kanter’s contract helps the Knicks “achieve” short-term failure. If Kanter was a small forward, this deal would feel infinitely better. Yet it was always going to be him or Steven Adams coming over in order for the math to work in a trade. Now the Knicks at least have a more liquid asset than Anthony that can be potentially parlayed into something that better fits New York, positionally-speaking. This wasn’t a good deal but it was the best deal, considering how both the Knicks and Anthony were eager to move on from one another.

Whether it’s by their own volition or by contractual albatrosses, the Knicks would be better off operating like a small-market team that receives little attention from free agents for the next two to three seasons. Come summer 2020, the Knicks could be fielding a team of Porzingis, Ntilikina and the three players drafted in 2018, 2019 and 2020 with at least $20,971,735 coming off the books with Noah and Hernangomez’ contracts. That number could increase drastically depending on if Tim Hardaway Jr. opts out of his deal, if Courtney Lee is traded and if New York does not guarantee the final year of Thomas’ contract.