We are seeing something new out of Carlos Gonzalez, the star left fielder for the Colorado Rockies. I don’t mean in a “he’s finally healthy” kind of way. Nor in a “finally living up to potential” kind of way, considering he’s been a perennial All-Star and, in some circles, is the player with the best tools in all of baseball. There are negative connotations about the word “maturing” which implies someone was immature and though I do not know him personally, I would not call Gonzalez that. The term “coming into his prime” seems most apt though it’s commonly thought of as a complete development of physical ability when, physically, baseball players tend to peak in their mid 20s. In practice, though, the term refers to the time where enough experience at the major league level has been accumulated and is actively being utilized to supplement the post-peak physical skills. While it can be risky to draw conclusions based on the handful of games played so far in 2014, there is evidence extending back to 2013 of a change in Carlos Gonzalez’s approach at the plate. Whatever it is, Carlos Gonzalez Version 2.0 is taking his game to a new, better level. We are going to look under the hood, looking at his career from 2008 with the Oakland A’s through games played as of 4/11/14 and see what that he’s doing and what that might mean.

If you look at the “back of the baseball card” stats, the most obvious clue is that Carlos Gonzalez is striking out more often. Wait a sec, you say, didn’t you just say Carlos 2.0.1 is better than Carlos 1.9.whatever? While whoever inspired Kevin Costner’s line might think strikeouts are fascist, changes in strikeout rates can indicate the way a player’s game is changing. For that, we need to look at some rate stats to try to identify why he is striking out more and to see if that provides a glimpse into a change in his approach.

There are a few significant takeaways from this table. First, through 2013 and so far in 2014, Carlos Gonzalez is swinging at the first pitch more often (1stStr) compared to his career average. He is being more aggressive at the plate, even though he has been swinging and missing more often in recent years (Con), dropping to 70.1% for 2013 and 70.6% so far in 2014 from a career norm of 73.4%. He is also striking out looking less (L/SO%) and getting fewer called strikes in general (L/STR). Some of those called strikes are naturally moving into the swinging strikes bucket. It is reasonable to wonder whether he is just flailing away at everything remotely resembling a strike. Is he actually being hyper-aggressive and swinging at pitches outside the strike zone?

There is the significant bump in his strikeout rate (SO% and AB/SO) accompanied by a slightly decreased walk rate (BB%) from 2013 and 2014 and a decrease in balls in play (IP%) when compared to his pre-2012 career. That suggests that while Carlos Gonzalez is being more aggressive, he is not being hyper-aggressive to the point where he has lost all conception of the strike zone. Now we’ll take a look at what he does with the ball when he does hit it. X/H% is a simple formula that gives the percentage of hits that goes for extra bases. The substantial increase in his X/H% as well as his HR% indicate that when he does swing and make contact, it is “more solid”, “barreling up on the ball”, “hitting the sweetspot” and all other applicable buzz terms. Whichever cliché is your choice, the rate stats show that Gonzalez, though he may be swinging and missing more, is hitting for more power in 2013 and so far in 2014.

More power, more strikeouts, swinging and missing more but yet his batting average hasn’t suffered. Why would that be? Time for some heat maps. First, let’s break down what he’s swinging at first. The one on the left shows in which areas of the zone he tended to swing prior to 2012 and the one on the right shows his swing rate for 2013 and 2014. The redder an area is, the more often he swings.

Prior to 2012, Carlos Gonzalez had a pretty little swing circle centered on the inner half of the plate, generally swinging at strikes and swinging less (though still swinging) at pitches outside the strike zone. Since 2013? The strike zone is significantly redder i.e. he is swinging at more strikes, especially down the middle of the plate and low in the strike zone. He is also swinging at more pitches up in the strike zone and more strikes inside. Heat maps are insightful but they are also relative. We know he’s swinging at more pitches up and we know he’s swinging at more pitches in, but is he swinging at more pitches up and in? So let’s break that up into a grid with swing percentages by zone and blow up the size to make the numbers more readable.

Regarding that upper left corner, Carlos Gonzalez swung at 60% of those pitches prior to 2012 and 60% since 2012 so he is same frequency while it is numerically evident he is swinging at more pitches that are solely up or solely inside. We also glean a few other useful things. For example, we see that he used to swing at 78% of pitches down the heart of the plate and since 2013, he’s swinging at 85%. We also see that, outside of the strike zone, he’s swinging at more pitches that are inside and more pitches that are low, choosing to swing less at pitches that are far outside the strike zone, particularly up and away.

Is that a good idea? Let’s look at his batting average in the grid.

He is hitting for a higher batting average for pitches in the strike zone. In the middle of the zone, he’s increased his batting average by nearly .100 points (.358 to .458) and has increased his batting average on the inner half of the strike zone while still maintaining a strong batting average on the outer half, particularly pummeling pitches just off the plate to the tune of a .500 batting average. The only drawback is that he has sacrificed some batting average on pitches up and in which, as noted previously, he is at least not being any more aggressive towards in terms of swing rate.

We know he’s swinging more at pitches in the zone and handling pitches on the inner half and at the top of the strike zone better than he used to. Question: Where’s the power coming from? The answer is in this last set of heat maps based on slugging percentage.

The Answer: Pitches in the zone, particularly the inner half and the upper half. The intensity of the red shows just how much better he has become at swinging at strikes and hitting them with power.

So, yes, Carlos Gonzalez, is striking out significantly more and walking a little bit less while maintaining his batting average and definitely hitting for more power. Some argue that strikeouts are selfish and swinging for the fences is a poor approach. That is generally the case if one is being uncontrollably aggressive. However, what Carlos Gonzalez is doing is being more aggressive within the zone, attacking strikes and rarely striking out looking. Sure, he’s “swinging and missing” a little bit more on a per-swing basis, but each hitter gets three strikes and he’s increasing his odds that he does get a pitch in an at bat that he can handle. When he does, he’s taking much better advantage of pitches than he used to.

There’s still room for improvement, naturally. Some might quibble with that up and in area and suggest he swing a little bet less at them. Yet, virtually every hitter has a hole in their swing. The takeaway, however, is that while that hole has remained, he’s done a much better job filling in the strike zone around that hole, hammering pitches up and hammering pitches in. Welcome to Carlos Gonzalez Version 2.0. Even if this one strikes out a little more, we should enjoy it.