by Vince Verhei

Tales of failed red zone drives, Part I: Up 14-0 in the second quarter, the Philadelphia Eagles had a first-and-goal at the Washington 9. They threw three straight passes, but not one ball was thrown into the end zone (in fact, none of them even crossed the 5-yard line). The drive died at the 10, and Philadelphia settled for three points instead of seven.

Tales of failed red zone drives, Part II: Late in the fourth quarter, the New Orleans Saints trailed Tampa Bay 26-20, but had a first down at the Tampa Bay 12. The next three plays were an incompletion into the end zone, a 5-yard catch-and-run by Darren Sproles, and a Drew Brees scramble for a short gain. On fourth down, Brees threw into the end zone again, but the ball was intercepted and the game was effectively over.

Obviously, the scoreboard dictated in strategy in both situations, but the differences in philosophy were striking. Philadelphia threw balls in the field of play, hoping a receiver could catch a pass and slip across the goal line, while New Orleans aggressively attacked the end zone. (The Saints could have picked up a first down at the 2-yard line, making their dogged pursuit of six points look even more bold.)

Which is the best way to score at the goal line, then – throwing into the end zone, or throwing short of the goal line and hoping receivers can get six points after the catch? Intuitively, it would seem that throwing into the end zone would produce more touchdowns, with an increased risk for interceptions. And in this case, the numbers prove intuition entirely correct. Here are the statistics for every goal-to-go pass attempt in 2010:

Goal-to-go passing, 2010 Passes Comp. % Yds/Att TD% INT% Into end zone 531 42.6% 2.06 42.6% 3.4% Short of goal line 314 66.9% 2.98 20.7% 1.0%

Throwing into the end zone is clearly a better way to score touchdowns. A much better way. Throwing short of the goal line will produce a lot more completions for a few more empty yards, but it won't actually get you six points all that often. And while throwing into the end zone does carry an added risk of interceptions, as the Saints will tell you, sometimes that's a risk you have to take.

(Numbers for the first six weeks of 2011, by the way, are very similar, except that the difference in interception rates between the two types of passes is slightly smaller, 2.6 percent to 2.2 percent. That's likely due to a small sample size, but it makes it even more clear that teams should be throwing into the end zone when they approach it.)

Which brings us back to the Eagles. They've thrown 17 goal-to-go passes so far this year. Only New England and Dallas have thrown more. However, only six of the Eagles' goal line passes have actually been thrown into the end zone, a rate of 35.3 percent that is lower than all but two other teams, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. (And those two teams have thrown only nine goal line passes between them, so we shouldn't be too confident in any conclusions we draw there.) Whether it's due to the lack of an effective end zone target or just Andy Reid's fetish for bubble screens and shovel passes, that strategy goes a long way in explaining Philadelphia's red zone struggles, which in turn go a long way in explaining the four-game losing streak they just snapped.

ADDENDUM: After the first version of Quick Reads ran on ESPN.com, we got the following e-mail from a reader:

Looking at the first chart in this article, It screams out that the two situations aren't normalized for the actual yard line. Passes on goal to go from the 1 are much more likely to go into the end zone than passes on goal to go from the 10, and they're also more likely to result in touchdowns. I'll bet the conclusion holds in a lesser form when this is taken into account.

The red flag for me was the increased yards/attempt on passes not into the end zone. It appears that yards/completion is almost equal between the two, which makes no sense if the two situations averaged the same start yardline.

We separated the data into two sets: Goal-to-go passes from the 5 or closer, and those from the 6 or farther. There were 443 close passes, 339 into the end zone and 104 short of the goal line. The end zone passes scored touchdowns 46.0 percent of the time, while the short passes scored 26.9 percent of the time, a difference of about 19 percent (19.1 percent, to be precise).

There were 402 "deep" passes (and we are really stretching the definition of that term here), 192 into the end zone and 210 short of the goal line. The end zone passes scored touchdowns 36.5 percent of the time, while the short passes scored 17.6 percent of the time, a difference of -- well, look at this -- about 19 percent (18.8 percent, to be precise).

Regardless of where the goal-to-go pass is thrown from, it's more likely to result in six points if it comes down in the end zone. If there's any caveat to this, it's that on 210 goal-to-go passes from the 6 or farther, only one was intercepted. If a field goal will absolutely win the game for you, it's probably best to check down. Otherwise, throw across the goal line, cross your fingers, and hope for the best.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Eli Manning NYG 21/32 292 0 0 191 191 0 This is one of the most valuable games you'll ever see for a quarterback who neither passed nor ran for a touchdown. He did, however, convert four of eight third-down opportunities (including two defensive pass interference penalties). He also had four 20-yard plays, including a 60-yard catch-and-run to Hakeem Nicks in the second quarter. Opponent adjustments also play a part here. The Bills had intercepted at least one pass in every game this year, and 10 in the past three weeks, but Eli managed to keep the ball out of their hands. On the other hand, the Bills have only four sacks on the year. It's not like Eli was running from Bruce Smith all day. 2. Aaron Rodgers GB 17/28 310 3 1 148 143 5 Rodgers has now been one of the top four quarterbacks five times in six weeks this season. Rodgers operated almost exclusively from shotgun against the Rams, but when he was under center he was scintillating: Four-of-five passing for 146 yards, two touchdowns, and another first down. 3. Andy Dalton CIN 25/32 264 1 0 120 120 0 Don't look now, but the Cincinnati Bengals are 4-2 and in the thick of the playoff race, and their rookie quarterback has a lot to do with it. (A soft schedule has even more to do with it - the four teams they've beaten have a combined record of 7-16 - but we're thinking positive here.) Dalton caught fire between the second and third quarters against Indianapolis, completing 13 passes in a row (with a defensive pass interference penalty mixed in for good measure) for 158 yards and nine first downs. 4. Josh Freeman TB 23/41 303 2 0 119 121 -2 Freeman between his own goal line and the Saints' 40: 18-of-28 for 257 yards, plus a for 8 yards. Freeman inside the Saints' 40: 5-of-13 for 46 yards. 5. Matt Ryan ATL 14/22 163 1 0 116 112 4 Ryan put together the following streak over the first and second quarters: 5-of-6 passing, 64 yards, four first downs (plus a 19-yard gain on first-and-20), one touchdown, plus two DPIs for 37 and 16 yards. 6. Jay Cutler CHI 21/31 267 2 0 116 116 0 Cutler plundered the juicy center of the Minnesota defense, going 10-of-14 for 185 yards and eight first downs (including two touchdowns) on throws up the middle of the field. 7. Joe Flacco BAL 20/33 305 0 1 100 92 8 Flacco's first quarter: 7-of-8 passing, 82 yards, five first downs, plus a 9-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 7-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 8, for 72 DYAR. 8. Tony Romo DAL 27/41 317 1 1 95 86 9 Should Romo have been given a chance to throw in a long-yardage situation at the end of the game and try for a clinching first down? With more than 10 yards to go this season, Romo is 22-of-31 for 289 yards, with one sack and one interception, but only six first downs. Looks like the rewards don't merit the risk. 9. Michael Vick PHI 18/31 237 1 1 82 69 13 Vick's final red zone numbers: eight dropbacks, two completions (a 7-yard touchdown and a 1-yard loss), four incomplete passes, one sack, one interception, -54 DYAR. He also had a run for no gain on second-and-goal from the 1. 10. Mark Sanchez NYJ 14/25 201 1 0 63 52 11 11. Matt Schaub HOU 22/37 223 1 0 57 57 0 Before opponent adjustments, Schaub had -4 YAR. Yes, the Ravens defense has been really, really good thus far. With no Andre Johnson, the Texans went screen-heavy, throwing a league-high nine passes behind the line of scrimmage. It didn't work. They completed five of those passes for only 23 yards. 12. Drew Brees NO 29/45 383 1 3 55 48 7 Effective dink-and-dunkology: Brees had a league-high 11 completions in Week 6 that gained successful yardage, but did not gain first downs. On the other hand, he also completed seven deep balls. Nobody else had more than five. In short, Drew Brees is good at everything (except, for this week, ball security). Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Tom Brady NE 27/41 289 2 2 53 49 4 Brady's first quarter: 3-of-5, 20 yards, just one first down, with two sacks and an interception, -78 DYAR. He played better after that. 14. Matt Stafford DET 29/50 293 2 0 46 39 7 Stafford led the league in red zone DYAR this weekend. He only went 3-for-9 in the red zone, but two of his completions went for touchdowns (including a 16-yard touchdown on third-and-10) and the other picked up a first down on third-and-5. Four of those targets, by the way, were thrown to Brandon Pettigrew. More on him later. 15. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 12/23 200 1 0 40 36 3 Roethlisberger's average pass attempt came more than 17 yards past the line of scrimmage. Next highest among starters was Rex Grossman, at less than 13. Roethlisberger had five attempts that traveled at least 40 yards downfield, although he completed just one, Mike Wallace's weekly 40-yard catch. 16. Curtis Painter IND 23/34 191 1 1 38 54 -16 First half: 9-of-11, 61 yards, just two first downs, 24 DYAR. Second half: 14-of-23, 130 yards, seven first downs (including two touchdowns), one sack, one interception, one DPI for 26 yards, 31 DYAR. About the same in total value, radically different in style. 17. Colt McCoy CLE 21/45 215 2 0 35 56 -20 McCoy had 16 first downs on Sunday, tied with Tom Brady for most in the league. This will probably be the last time you read "tied with Tom Brady" in Colt McCoy's comment this year. 18. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 21/30 244 2 2 30 29 0 A rough day for the Fitzpatrick-Stevie Johnson connection: 5-of-10, 39 yards, two interceptions, -53 DYAR. 19. John Beck WAS 8/15 117 0 0 28 13 15 Philadelphia cornerback watch: Beck and Rex Grossman went a combined 8-of-20 for 155 yards throwing to their wide receivers. That's more in line with what I was expecting from the Eagles defense when I started this in Week 1, but then, it was John Beck and Rex Grossman. 20. Christian Ponder MIN 9/17 99 0 0 15 9 6 Well, you can't accuse Ponder of tunnel vision, that's for sure. His 17 passes were spread amongst nine different receivers. 21. Jason Campbell OAK 6/9 52 0 0 6 21 -15 The saddest thing about Campbell's injury is that he has very quietly been having his best season. As of right now, he's top ten in both DVOA and DYAR. His DVOA is a career high, and with just one more good game he would have had the second-best DYAR season of his life. That's mainly due to his newfound ability to avoid sacks. For his career he's been sacked once every 15.5 dropbacks, but this year that's down to once every 34.0. Considering the ramshackle nature of the Raiders' line, that's kind of miraculous. 22. Donovan McNabb MIN 19/24 177 0 0 4 4 0 McNabb's average completion came 6.9 yards downfield. His average incompletion came 4.4 yards downfield. Why no, that doesn't make much sense. He'd rank a lot higher if he hadn't been sacked five times. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Sam Bradford STL 28/44 321 0 1 -13 -6 -7 Bradford led the league this weekend in a rather unfortunate category: Most passes thrown when down by two scores. It's the second time this season he's finished first in this department, and for the season he's a runaway leader with 139 dropbacks (63 percent of his total pass plays) facing a big deficit. The second-place passer (Mark Sanchez, surprisingly) has only 90 such throws. 24. Kyle Boller OAK 8/14 100 0 0 -21 -4 -17 Shane Lechler has a passing DVOA of 2,564.6%. The Raiders passing game should consist of nothing but fake field goals from here on out. 25. Cam Newton CAR 21/34 240 0 3 -29 -56 27 The scary thing about Newton is how he can be a much better quarterback with some very slight improvements. He went 0-for-4 passing in the red zone against Atlanta, with two interceptions. For the season, he has -141 DYAR in the red zone. The only quarterback who has performed worse inside the 20 is Philip Rivers, of all people. 26. Blaine Gabbert JAC 12/25 109 1 0 -42 -44 2 Gabbert didn't get much help from his teammates — his average completion picked up just 1.7 YAC, worst of any starter this week. His second quarter was, um, bad: 2-of-8 passing for 1 yard, no first downs, two sacks, -66 DYAR. 27. Matt Moore MIA 16/34 204 0 2 -59 -59 0 Make no mistake, this was a very, very bad game, but it did come against the Jets. Moore had -108 YAR before opponent adjustments gave him an enormous boost. 28. Alex Smith SF 17/32 125 1 1 -62 -61 0 Smith's average completion came 3.9 yards downfield, the lowest figure for any starter in Week 6. He threw 15 passes to Michael Crabtree, completing only nine of them, and six of those gained less than 10 yards. 29. Rex Grossman WAS 9/22 143 0 4 -74 -74 0 The four interceptions would probably have put Grossman at the bottom of the list by themselves, but they were not the only bad plays Grossman had against Philadelphia. Grossman was also sacked once, and went 0-for-7 on third downs, including a 3-yard gain on third-and-7 and a 1-yard loss on third-and-2. Grossman threw for only six first downs on the day, and five of them came with the Redskins trailing by at least two touchdowns.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Jonathan Stewart CAR 48 1 24 0 38 34 4 Buffalo's Fred Jackson gained 80 yards on just one run, so how can Stewart be the most valuable running back of the week when he had just 72 total yards from scrimmage? The answer is efficiency. Stewart only had seven carries against Atlanta, but he made every one of them count. His worst carry of the day was a 4-yard gain on first-and-15, and even that was only a few decimal points below average production in that situation. His other six carries included three 10-yard plays, plus a 1-yard touchdown. Not one of his carries hurt his team. Jackson, on the other hand, put his team in bad situations over and over again, with seven runs for 2 yards or less, and four for no gain or a loss. Stewart, by the way, also chipped in as a receiver, with catches for 11 and 12 yards. 2. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 104 3 26 0 36 25 11 Bradshaw's most valuable run of the day was a 30-yarder in the fourth quarter. His next three most valuable runs were all 1-yard touchdowns. He had four other first downs on the day, two of which came on 11-yard runs. He also had a 17-yard gain on first-and-10 in the first quarter. 3. Matt Forte CHI 87 0 36 0 36 26 10 Forte had four runs for 10 yards or more, plus a 9-yard gain on second-and-5 and a 5-yard gain on second-and-4. That offsets the fact he was stuffed for a loss five times. As a receiver, Forte caught six-of-seven passes thrown his way, including 10-yard gains on third-and-5 and second-and-15. 4. Darren McFadden OAK 91 1 2 0 33 38 -5 In rushing DYAR alone, McFadden was the most valuable runner of the week. He didn't have tons of highlights, just two 10-yard runs, for 24 and 11 yards. However, 10 of his 20 carries gained 4 yards or more (including a touchdown), another four gained 3 yards, and he also had a 2-yard run on second-and-1. 5. Fred Jackson BUF 121 1 47 0 33 18 15 We talked about his day as a rusher already, but not his day as a receiver. Jackson caught five of six passes thrown his way on the day, and though he didn't get a single first down, four of them still had positive value, including a 19-yard gain on second-and-20.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Tashard Choice DAL 14 0 16 0 -34 -18 -16 Choice was the mirror image of Stewart, doing a maximum amount of damage in minimal playing time. That's partly because he was a victim of circumstance, as Choice was the Cowboys' go-to guy in hopeless situations. He was the runner or pass target on five third-down plays, and three of those came with 14 yards or more needed for a first down. On the other hand, he did have 30 net yards and a lost fumble on ten total runs and targets, with just one first down on the day. So he certainly made the worst of a bad situation.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Calvin Johnson DET 7 9 113 16.1 0 54 The mystery is not how Johnson could be the best wide receiver of the week, not with seven catches (and just two incompletions) for 113 yards and six first downs (including one conversion on third-and-5 and another on fourth-and-10). No, the mystery is how the Lions could throw 50 passes against San Francisco and only target Johnson nine times. In the fourth quarter, Johnson had only three targets: a 9-yard gain on third-and-5, a 41-yard gain on first-and-10, and an 11-yard catch and lateral on the game's final play. 2. Anquan Boldin BAL 8 9 132 16.5 0 51 He's alive! Boldin had his first 100-yard day since Week 1 of the 2010 season. Boldin's eight catches and 132 yards came on only nine targets, and included seven first downs and seven plays of 10 yards or more. He's the ninth receiver this year with at least seven 10-yard catches in a single game. 3. David Nelson BUF 4 6 62 15.5 0 40 Nelson's four receptions each produced a first down, and three of them converted third downs. He had another third-down conversion on a 26-yard defensive pass interference call, which is not included in his numbers above. 4. Devin Hester CHI 5 7 91 18.2 1 38 Hester is here for two plays: his 48-yard touchdown catch in the first quarter, and a 23-yard gain on third-and-13 in the second. Outside of that, he had negative value on the day. 5. Jeremy Maclin PHI 5 7 101 20.2 0 35 Maclin had three third downs on the day, on gains of 10, 26, and 59 yards. He was also the target on Vince Young's interception, but for our purposes that counts as an incomplete pass for Maclin.