What is Malcolm Turnbull up against in the new Senate?

Updated

It's not going to be easy for the Government to get its agenda through the new Senate. Here's why.

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The Coalition won 30 Senate seats in the July 2 double dissolution election — but to pass legislation it needs 39 votes.

That means the Government needs to win over nine more Senators every time it wants to pass a law. And that's not quite as simple as it sounds.

The new Upper House is made up of nine different voting blocs.

Coalition (30 seats)

Labor (26)

Greens (9)

One Nation (4)

Nick Xenophon Team (3)

Derryn Hinch's Justice Party

Jacqui Lambie Network

Family First's Bob Day

Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm

If it is to get its agenda through the Senate, the Coalition will have to work with all these blocs.

So how can the Coalition get legislation through the Senate?

There are a few options but the most likely way the majority of legislation will get through is with the support of Labor.

While we are fresh out of an election campaign that saw both sides in a no-holds-barred fight for power, once the dust settles much of what happens in the Senate is done with the support of both major parties.

In fact despite Mr Turnbull labelling the last Parliament unworkable, Labor voted with the Coalition 40 per cent of the time.

That is not to say Labor will rubber-stamp every piece of legislation that comes its way but it is likely to save its opposition for the big ticket items it wants to make a statement on.

What happens if Labor decides to oppose legislation?

The next simplest path may be slightly counter-intuitive: the Greens.

While they're hardly ideological bedfellows, the appeal of working with the Greens lies in the fact it means the Government only has to negotiate with one block.

This is because, with the nine votes the Greens bring to the table, the Coalition can get legislation passed without having to court any of the other crossbenchers.

And under the helm of Richard Di Natale, the Greens have shown themselves willing to engage with the Government on issues important to them.

In the last Parliament, the Greens supported the Coalition on voting reform and multinational tax avoidance, securing changes that Labor opposed.

If Labor and the Greens are out, where to next?

This is where things really start to get complicated.

With nine votes needed to pass legislation if Labor and the Greens are opposed, the Coalition will need to win the support of:

all four One Nation senators;

all three Nick Xenophon Team senators; and

two out of the other four crossbenchers (Jacqui Lambie, Derryn Hinch, David Leyonhjelm and Bob Day)

In other words, in this scenario the Government will have to negotiate with at least four different groups — and get them all to agree.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party and Nick Xenophon's NXT would be critical: either party can veto any legislation requiring the crossbenchers.

While both One Nation and NXT rode a surge of anti-establishment sentiment on election day, their platforms are substantially different.

The one area they are likely to be united on is extracting as many concessions from the Government for their pet projects in exchange for a vote.

NXT will likely focus on protecting trade-exposed industries in South Australia.

One Nation may aim to further Pauline Hanson's crusade against Islam and multiculturalism.

While their different priorities offer an opportunity for the Government to negotiate, it could also create a situation where one party's concessions cause the other to withdraw support.

So what happens if NXT or One Nation refuses to play ball?

If this is the case, then the Government is back to square one and will have to negotiate with Labor or the Greens to get legislation passed.

The new Parliament has already delivered an example of how this could play out, with NXT and One Nation at odds over whether to hold a plebiscite on same-sex marriage, after Nick Xenophon sided with the Greens in opposing it.

While One Nation, Jacqui Lambie, David Leyonhelm and Bob Day support a plebiscite, this will not be enough for the Government to get it across the line.

The Coalition realises this and has been urging Labor to support the vote, threatening to take the issue of same-sex marriage off the agenda if legislation for a plebiscite is not passed.

While Labor has yet to announce whether it will support the plebiscite, Bill Shorten's decision to put forward its own bill to legalise same-sex marriage, shows the Opposition will attempt to gain maximum political mileage out of the issue before being making a decision to support or sink the vote.

Do the other independents even matter?

Only when the Government has already managed to get NXT and One Nation across the line do senators Hinch, Lambie, Leyonhjelm and Day come into play.

Those four senators hold a wide range of political views, from the lifelong vote-dodger and atheist Derryn Hinch to Family First stalwart Bob Day. There's certainly no guarantee these independents will agree with each other, let alone with the other minor parties.

The Government can take some solace from the fact it only has to convince two of those four to get a vote through the Upper House.

But if the last Parliament is any guide the number of independents could grow over time.

After the 2013 election, then-PM Tony Abbott started off negotiating with Clive Palmer, only to see his PUP party splinter into three different votes.

With WA One Nation Senator Rod Culleton directly contradicting the party's platform that multiculturalism has failed, it remains to be seen how long Pauline Hanson keeps her party united.

Whatever the case, Malcolm Turnbull and his Senate leader George Brandis certainly have their work cut out for them.

Credits

Reporting by Tim Leslie, design by Ben Spraggon, development by Colin Gourlay, editing by Matt Liddy

Topics: federal-government, federal-parliament, australia

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