Historical performance for favorites, underdogs, margins & totals: 1967–2018*

*All “favorite” and “underdog” taxonomy refers to whether or not sportsbooks installed a team as a favorite or an underdog. To wit, the data is not to be confused with winning and losing scores as many favorites have lost and underdogs have prevailed; count is 52 for descriptive statistics concerning favorites, underdogs, margin of (victory), totals

Analysis

Favorites: Historically, favored teams in the Super Bowl averaged 25.7 points per game with a standard deviation of +/- 11.5 points per game. To wit: roughly 68% of Super Bowl favorites scores ranged between 14.2 and 37.2 points per game. The greatest Super Bowl favorite score was 55 points tallied by the San Fransisco 49ers against the Denver Broncos (10) in Super Bowl XXIV in 1989. The lowest favorite score was 7 points, which both the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings ignominiously yielded in Super Bowl III and IV in 1969 and 1970, respectively.

Underdogs: From the first Super Bowl through 2018, underdogs averaged 20.6 points per game — 5.1 points less than favorites — with a standard deviation of +/- 10.4 points per game. To wit: roughly 68% of Super Bowl dog scores ranged between 10.2 and 31.0 points per game — a smaller distributional range than favorites. In 2003’s Super Bowl XXXVII, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers upset the Oakland Raiders 48 to 21, and notched the highest score by an underdog in the process. No favorite or underdog has been shutout in a Super Bowl, but both the 2018 Los Angeles Rams and the 1972 Miami Dolphin’s score only 3 points, respectively in America’s biggest championship game.

Margins: The scoring margin data between favorites and underdogs should not be confused with the average scoring margin between winners and losers (see chart below). However, as the data show above, Vegas’ installed favorites do win more often than not win as evidenced by the 5.1 point average margin between the average favorite score of 25.7 and the average underdog score of 20.6. The standard deviation is greater than both that of favorites and underdogs: +/-16.8, or between - 21.9 and +11.7 is the range whereby 68% of margins can be observed (the negative margins, -5.1 through -21.9 describe the range of victories achieved by favorites, where as the positive values: +1–11.7 are for underdog’s margin of victory in upsets).

Totals: Super Bowl totals have averaged 46.3 combined points with a standard deviation of +/- 14.1: just over two thirds of totals have occurred between 32.2 and 60.3 in the 53 contests. The lowest total (16) occurred in Super Bowl LIII in 2018, whereby the New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams 13 to 3. The highest total (75) featured the Steve Young and the San Fransisco 49ers outscoring the San Diego Chargers 49 to 26 in Super Bowl XXIX in 1995.

Historical Super Bowl game result data: 1967–2018