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zimmah



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LegendaryActivity: 1106Merit: 1005 Re: In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC September 13, 2014, 06:41:21 PM #3 do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?



it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.



but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.



so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this



Top 20% (of world population)

owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)



they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined



High 20%

owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)



they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined



Middle 20%

average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)



they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!



Low 20%

they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)



Bottom 20%



the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.

The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin





do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

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LegendaryActivity: 1106Merit: 1005 Re: In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC September 13, 2014, 11:50:23 PM #10 Quote from: marechoux on September 13, 2014, 11:48:37 PM



There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths



1% of world population = 70 millions of people.There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths

exactly, that's why 1 bitcoin will be EXTREMELY valuable if enough people in the world start to decide bitcoin is more useful than dollars/euros or credit cards.



and i'm not even talking about other things, as bitcoin can replace much more than just money.



buying 1 car or 1 house for 1 bitcoin is just the beginning exactly, that's why 1 bitcoin will be EXTREMELY valuable if enough people in the world start to decide bitcoin is more useful than dollars/euros or credit cards.and i'm not even talking about other things, as bitcoin can replace much more than just money.buying 1 car or 1 house for 1 bitcoin is just the beginning

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LegendaryActivity: 1154Merit: 1012 Re: In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC September 18, 2014, 02:14:27 PM #16 Bitcoin won't be mainstream in 10 years.



If Bitcoin reaches mainstream the percentage of people owning a certain amount of Bitcoin will not remain static but will slowly decline, because generally wealth tends to accumulate in a small group of individuals. You also have to take in consideration that over time coins are lost, which will have an impact once the supply of new coins drys up.



If mainstream adoption occurs, the percentage of people who own 1 Bitcoin or more will be extremely small. A reasonable estimate has been given by zimmah.

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LegendaryActivity: 1106Merit: 1005 Re: In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC September 18, 2014, 03:43:32 PM #18 Quote from: nottoorich on September 18, 2014, 10:32:11 AM So if 7500 satoshi is a fair amount of coins to have in the future, I can be considered retired.



well, first of all the data is theoretical and assuming bitcoin becomes world's most influential currency, this may or may not happen, and even if it does happen, it will likely take another 10~20 years. (for full maturity, it's still entirely possible for bitcoin to become worth $100.000 or so within one or two years, in the most positive scenario)



secondly, 7500 satoshi are fine for the bottom 20% of humanity, and are a vast improvement compared to the bottom 20% nowadays, but still you wouldn't be able to stay on par with western standards with just 7500 satoshi. To be safe i'd try to be at least in the middle class range, if you can.



Note that 80% of the world population lives on less than 10 dollars a day ($3650/year) The bottom 20% currently lives on about $1.25/day (456.25/year) (in fact i get more than that on student grants alone, per month!)



The distribution i predicted is less harsh for the poorer people of society, the wealth distribution is much more even than the current distribution, because bitcoin does not rip of the poor nearly as much as fiat does, however, poor people will still exist even with bitcoin, it will just be a little more acceptable for them because they can now engage in global economic activity without having to pay huge fees to western union or banks, or even having no bank and/or not even having the option to sell their labor to the international or even national market.



The best thing is, the poor people will be able to become much richer by providing interesting goods/services to the rich and the only 3 things they need is:

1) Creativity (offer something that does not exist yet in europe/america, but is interesting for us to have)

2) Internet, to promote your product internationally

3) A bitcoin wallet, to accept payment



Rich people (people with many bitcoin) will probably look for such novelty items (or services) just for the fun of it, and the poor people will be able to make himself a little richer by it. The gap between poor and rich will slowly start to fade.



Compared to todays standard, the people who have 7500 satoshi (assuming they either leverage some of their bitcoins by investing it into smart businesses or actually set up something of their own to generate some income) will still be better of than living on $1.25/day, but not so much better that they could survive in western europe with that amount of money.



That is the theory at least. The future may look different, nobody can know for sure.



It's just an indication that even tiny amounts of bitcoin may make you relatively (or absolutely) rich.

well, first of all the data is theoretical and assuming bitcoin becomes world's most influential currency, this may or may not happen, and even if it does happen, it will likely take another 10~20 years. (for full maturity, it's still entirely possible for bitcoin to become worth $100.000 or so within one or two years, in the most positive scenario)secondly, 7500 satoshi are fine for the bottom 20% of humanity, and are a vast improvement compared to the bottom 20% nowadays, but still you wouldn't be able to stay on par with western standards with just 7500 satoshi. To be safe i'd try to be at least in the middle class range, if you can.Note that 80% of the world population lives on less than 10 dollars a day ($3650/year) The bottom 20% currently lives on about $1.25/day (456.25/year) (in fact i get more than that on student grants alone, per month!)The distribution i predicted is less harsh for the poorer people of society, the wealth distribution is much more even than the current distribution, because bitcoin does not rip of the poor nearly as much as fiat does, however, poor people will still exist even with bitcoin, it will just be a little more acceptable for them because they can now engage in global economic activity without having to pay huge fees to western union or banks, or even having no bank and/or not even having the option to sell their labor to the international or even national market.The best thing is, the poor people will be able to become much richer by providing interesting goods/services to the rich and the only 3 things they need is:1) Creativity (offer something that does not exist yet in europe/america, but is interesting for us to have)2) Internet, to promote your product internationally3) A bitcoin wallet, to accept paymentRich people (people with many bitcoin) will probably look for such novelty items (or services) just for the fun of it, and the poor people will be able to make himself a little richer by it. The gap between poor and rich will slowly start to fade.Compared to todays standard, the people who have 7500 satoshi (assuming they either leverage some of their bitcoins by investing it into smart businesses or actually set up something of their own to generate some income) will still be better of than living on $1.25/day, but not so much better that they could survive in western europe with that amount of money.That is the theory at least. The future may look different, nobody can know for sure.It's just an indication that even tiny amounts of bitcoin may make you relatively (or absolutely) rich.