KOLKATA: Climate change and global warming may hit India’s GDP within a decade, a

published by the

(MGI) has said.

By 2030, temperatures in India could reach such levels that outdoor

may be forced to cut short their daylight working hours to beat the lethal heat waves, the report says.

The MGI report has estimated that the impact of global heating on outdoor work and the resultant loss in productivity could put 2.5% to 4.5% of India’s GDP at risk annually.

“As of 2017, in India, heat-exposed work produces about 50% of GDP, drives about 30% of GDP growth, and employs about 75% of the labour force, some 380 million people,” the report says.

For adaptation in the short term, India can focus on early-warning systems and cooling shelters to protect those without airconditioning. “Working hours for outdoor workers could be shifted, and... at the extreme, coordinated movement of people and capital from high-risk areas could be organized,” the report suggests.

Unless there is an effective adaptation response and de-carbonization within 10 years, 16-20 crore people in India could live in regions exposed to lethal heat waves every year.

In such an eventuality, temperature could exceed the survivability threshold in many areas, with just 4-5 hours of outdoor exposure turning fatal for a healthy, well-hydrated human at rest in shade, the report says.

By 2050, several pockets in India and

are projected to experience more than 60% annual chance of such heat waves. Such is the seriousness of the issue that the report suggests organized mass climate migration as one of the adaptive measures.

“Reducing exposure in high-risk areas could be one means by which to manage risk, as is being considered today in various flood-prone regions,”

, one of the authors of the report, told TOI.

The sectors at greater risk include agriculture, mining, and quarrying, as also indoor sectors with poor AC penetration, like hospitality, transport, and manufacturing. The urban poor, too, are likely to be affected disproportionately.

Heat and humidity could affect labour productivity, “with workers needing to take more breaks and the human body naturally limiting its efforts to prevent over-exertion,” the report says.