SPC AC 150724 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY... ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS. SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL PROPAGATE SEWD. BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX. ..DARROW.. 04/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z