TO ACHIEVE big things politicians need more than talent and a bit of bravery—they must be lucky in their choice of opponents. By that measure Scott Walker, Republican governor of Wisconsin, is a lucky politician. Lots of states have shaky public finances. Several Republican governors have responded with schemes to slash spending, cut taxes, curb unions and rethink pension and health-care promises. Many have faced resistance, and some (eg, Ohio’s governor, John Kasich, and Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal) have seen their boldest plans thwarted. Mr Walker fought hard to push through a raft of conservative policies after winning office in 2010. But good fortune was a key to his success: his opponents overdid their counter-attack, repelling voters.

After Mr Walker announced plans to curb collective bargaining for state workers, the state capitol was besieged for months by thousands of protesters. Politicians were picketed at home. Unknown extremists sent death threats targeting the governor and his wife—we will “gut her like a deer” said one note—as well as their two teenage sons.

Wisconsin, with a progressive tradition dating back to early German and Nordic immigrants, has voted Democratic in each presidential election since 1988. But unions overreached in calling an election to recall (ie, sack) Mr Walker in June 2012. Instead he won more votes than in 2010.

Not all those backing the governor’s reforms were traditional Republicans. When state workers grumbled at being asked to pay more towards their pensions and health insurance, they found limited sympathy among neighbours who have long paid into pensions and health schemes. Surveys by the Marquette Law School Poll found a marked divide between the views of private- and public-sector union households. They also revealed the existence of “Obama-Walker voters”, the one-in-ten Wisconsinites who support both the Democratic president and Republican governor.

Mr Walker is now trying the national stage. On November 19th he published a book, “Unintimidated”, describing his Wisconsin battles and all but declaring himself a contender for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. He suggests that the party’s next White House contender should be a problem-solving governor, rather than a member of the dysfunctional, much-reviled Congress (though he makes a tactful exception for Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin congressman who was Mitt Romney’s running-mate in 2012). That is a heroically self-serving observation: a stiletto jammed into the ribs of such rivals as Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. It is also probably true.

And it leaves standing Chris Christie, subject of much 2016 buzz, recently re-elected New Jersey’s governor by a crushing margin. Mr Walker praises his swaggering colleague as admirably “in-your-face”. “I have more of a midwestern filter,” he adds delicately, making that sound a good thing to have.

Lexington met Wisconsin’s governor on the sidelines of a charity event in Milwaukee. Mr Walker, the 46-year-old son of a Baptist minister, could pass for a youth pastor: all prim amiability and very neat hair. God is never far from his writings or conversation: he senses signs from God when a book opens at an apposite page, or in a timely gesture of support from a stranger. At other times he betrays flashes of ambition, and sounds as if his next, hapless opponent is the national Republican Party itself. Although he opposes Obamacare he is nonetheless planning to use it, for now, to cover poorer Wisconsinites, as a lesser evil than leaving them without cover. Washington Republicans must stop “gloating” and yearning for Obamacare’s failure, he says. They may dislike the law, but should remember that its collapse is a frightening prospect for real people.

He reserves harsh criticism for his party’s 2012 presidential nominee. After the 2012 recall election he was appalled to hear Mr Romney declare that Wisconsin’s lesson was that Americans do not want more teachers, police or firemen. A disastrous misreading, says Mr Walker: Wisconsin’s reforms were to strengthen vital services. Republicans should not hate government, he adds; they should loathe big, wasteful government.

The governor thinks Obama-Walker voters are best understood as a “persuadable” voter bloc: cynical about politics and greatly concerned with fairness. Mr Obama convinced voters in 2012 that the rich were not paying their “fair share”. Mr Walker targeted the unfairness of union contracts that pamper insiders and do not reward merit. Republicans need to own “fairness” as an argument underpinning all their policies, he suggests.

Wisconsin, 83% white, is not today’s America

Mr Walker combines a knack for economic populism with better manners than Chris Christie. Yet his crossover appeal should not be exaggerated. Mr Christie won half the Hispanic vote in his re-election, and shares power with a Democratic-run legislature. In contrast Mr Walker pushed his reforms through after Republicans took control of all branches of Wisconsin government. On issues from guns to abortion, he is a sternly down-the-line conservative. He scrapped college subsidies for young illegal immigrants brought up in his state. Asked what the federal government should do about millions of illegal migrants in America, he has “no proposal” just now. (“I’m a governor,” he protests.)

Mr Walker needs to think harder about a changing electorate. Currently he says that Hispanics and other growing groups matter nationally, but Republicans need only “make inroads” with them. He cites demographic studies showing that, in key battleground states, Mr Romney did badly by losing “Reagan Democrats”. If he is saying that Republicans can woo blue-collar whites and ignore minorities, that is suicidal advice. He is a serious challenger and a shrewd critic of his out-of-touch party. But elections are not won by treating the new America as an opponent.