It might seem like summer is still in full swing, but in movie-land, at least, focus has now turned to the autumn. In just over a month, on 2 September, the Venice film festival kicks off, firing a starter pistol on awards season. The blockbusters will make way for studios’ serious-minded contenders.

Venice gets in first, followed by Telluride (4-7 September), Toronto (10-20 September), New York film festival (26 September to 12 October) and Los Angeles’s AFI fest (5-12 November). It’s customary for films gunning for Academy awards to premiere at one of these to drum up hype before a theatrical release, unless they’ve already debuted at Cannes. This year’s best picture winner, Birdman, first screened in Venice; the previous year, it was 12 Years a Slave (Telluride).

Here’s 40 key titles, where they’re likely to get a first screening and which nominations they’ll be hoping to land. Foreign language titles have been omitted from consideration, save for the Cannes sensation Son of Saul, which – like last year’s winner, Ida – stands a good shot at netting nominations in other Oscar categories.

Adam Jones

Boasting a screenplay by Locke writer/director Steven Knight, Adam Jones was linked to both David Fincher and Derek Cianfrance before landing with August: Osage County director John Wells. Bradley Cooper heads the Weinstein Company release as a bad-boy chef struggling to make a comeback in London. He’s joined by Sienna Miller, Uma Thurman, Omar Sy, Alicia Vikander, Emma Thompson and Jamie Dornan.

Where it could premiere: It’s slated for US release in October, so expect to see it at Tiff, if not Telluride beforehand.

Possible major nominations: Actor for Bradley Cooper, who’s been on a roll with three back-to-back nominations for Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle and American Sniper.

Beasts of No Nation

Netflix is no stranger to the documentary Oscar race, but with Cary Fukunaga’s Beasts of No Nation, the company hopes to enter the narrative one. Adapted from the novel of the same name by Uzodinma Iweala and starring Idris Elba, the film focuses on the life of a child soldier in an unnamed African country.

Where it could premiere: The film debuts on Netflix on 16 October. Tiff seems the most likely place for it to premiere beforehand.

Possible major nominations: Supporting actor for Elba, two years after his surprise failure to get a nomination for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.

A Bigger Splash

Tilda Swinton and Luca Guadagnino, photographed around the time of I Am Love. Photograph: Sarah Lee/The Guardian

Luca Guadagnino follows up much-loved Italian melodrama I Am Love with his first English-language effort, A Bigger Splash, which sees him reunite with Tilda Swinton. The Fox Searchlight release stars Swinton as a rock legend on a secluded holiday with her husband (Matthias Schoenaerts) when their vacation is interrupted by the arrival of an old flame (Ralph Fiennes) and his daughter (Dakota Johnson).

Where it could premiere: Given the director’s roots, expect to see it at Venice.

Possible major nominations: Actress for Swinton, supporting actress for Johnson and screenplay.

Black Mass

After a recent number of misfires, including the horribly received comedy Mortdecai, Johnny Depp is in desperate need of a comeback. Black Mass could be that project. For it, Depp has donned contacts and a prosthetic nose to play notorious Irish/American Boston crime-lord Whitey Bulger. Crazy Heart and Out of the Furnace director Scott Cooper is at the helm; an impressive supporting cast includes Benedict Cumberbatch, Sienna Miller, Joel Edgerton and Kevin Bacon.

Where it could premiere: With an early autumn 18 September release date, it could premiere at either Telluride or Tiff.

Possible major nominations: Actor for Depp, who appears to give a transformative performance, judging by the trailer.

Bridge of Spies



When Steven Spielberg makes a movie, the Academy pays attention. Anticipation is high for his follow-up to Lincoln, starring two-time Oscar winner Tom Hanks as a cold war American lawyer recruited by the CIA to defend a soviet spy (Mark Rylance) and arrange for his swap with a captured U-2 pilot in east Berlin.



Where it could premiere: Lincoln surprised with a “secret” mid-festival premiere at NYFF – and star Daniel Day-Lewis went on to win the Oscar for best actor. Bridge of Spies could repeat that strategy, or close the festival.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actor for Hanks and screenplay for newcomer Matt Charman and veterans Ethan and Joel Coen.

By the Sea

Angelina Jolie’s last directorial effort, Unbroken, disappointed critics, but was a box office hit that also landed a handful of Oscar nominations. For her smaller-scale follow-up, Jolie directs herself and husband Brad Pitt as a married couple in the mid-1970s traveling through France. After encountering a younger couple (Mélanie Laurent and Melvil Poupaud) in a seaside town, they’re forced to re-examine their relationship.

Where it could premiere: With its European setting, By the Sea seems like a nice fit for Venice, the most glam of the autumn festivals.

Possible major nominations: Actress for Jolie and screenplay.

Carol

Already considered a frontrunner following its premiere at Cannes, where Cate Blanchett’s co-star in the drama, Rooney Mara, collected a best actress prize, Todd Hayne’s period lesbian romance is sure to gather momentum during the autumn ahead of its Christmas release.

Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actress for Blanchett, supporting actress for Mara and screenplay.



Creed

After earning a boatload of awards for his debut, Fruitvale Station, writer/director Ryan Coogler is back with a Rocky spinoff movie. So far, so big studio sellout from a promising indie talent (Fruitvale took him the Grand Jury prize at Sundance). But the trailer for the Warner Bros release hints at something much more, with a towering lead performance from Fruitvale’s Michael B Jordan (also starring in upcoming blockbuster Fantastic Four).

Where it could premiere: If it’s ready well ahead of its November release, Creed could potentially play at Tiff. If not, a NYFF gala seems likely.



Possible major nominations: Actor for Jordan.

Crimson Peak

Horror films don’t typically fall in line with the Academy’s tastes, but Crimson Peak has a formidable pedigree. Written and directed by ghoulish auteur Guillermo del Toro, Crimson Peak is a lush gothic chiller, the type of which Hollywood doesn’t make any more. It also boasts a very award-friendly cast, headed by Jessica Chastain, Mia Wasikowska and Tom Hiddleston.

Where it could premiere: If the film decides to go down the festival route, it could potentially pop up at Tiff, a month before it opens.



Possible major nominations: Supporting actress for Chastain and a slew of technical ones.

The Danish Girl

Trans experiences continue to make headlines, which is fortuitous timing for Tom Hooper’s tale of the first recipient of male-to-female gender reassignment. Eddie Redmayne reunited with Hooper after Les Misérables to star as Einar Wegener, an artist who changed her name to Lili Elbe in the 1920s. The first still of Redmayne as Wegener, released shortly after the actor won his Oscar for The Theory of Everything, caught fire on the web.

Where it could premiere: A Telluride premiere followed by a gala presentation at Tiff would make the most sense for this November release. The King’s Speech took the same strategy and that more than paid off.



Possible major nominations: Picture, best director, actor for Redmayne, supporting actress for Alicia Vikander (who plays his wife) and screenplay.

Everest

Opening the Venice film festival has proven to be good luck for the awards race, with the last two openers, Gravity and Birdman, netting a slew of nominations and some major wins. Baltasar Kormakur’s survival thriller Everest will be keen to follow – it’s the harrowing true story of a climbing expedition on Mount Everest gone badly wrong. Jake Gyllenhaal and Jason Clarke star, alongside Josh Brolin, Sam Worthington, Keira Knightley, Emily Watson, John Hawkes, Robin Wright and Michael Kelly.

Possible major nominations: Picture, director and supporting actor nominations.

Everybody Wants Some

Richard Linklater in 2014. Photograph: Armando Gallo/Corbis

Richard Linklater made cinematic history with Boyhood. His follow-up won’t enter the history books, but it promises a good time. Billed as a spiritual sequel to his breakout film, Dazed & Confused, it will follow the lives of college freshmen in the 1980s.

Where it could premiere: Telluride or Tiff seem likely.

Possible major nominations: Screenplay.

Freeheld

Less than a year after her first Oscar win, Julianne Moore looks set to dominate the best actress race once agin. Freeheld will likely be another tough watch for fans of the Still Alice star; it’s a true story of a police detective diagnosed with incurable lung cancer who fought to have her pension benefit left to her domestic partner (played by Ellen Page, who publicly came out soon before Freeheld went into production). Nick & Norah’s Infinite Playlist director Peter Sollet is at the helm, with a screenplay by Ron (Philadelphia) Nyswaner.

Where it could premiere: Lionsgate opens the drama on 2 October in the US, making Telluride and/or Tiff a safe bet to launch an awards campaign for its two main stars.



Possible major nominations: Actress nominations for Moore and Page.

The Good Dinosaur

Pixar’s second 2015 release, The Good Dinosaur, will have to go a long way to best the Oscar chances for the studio’s summer hit, Inside Out. Still, it stands a solid shot at netting a nomination. Set on an alternate planet Earth, where mass extinction never happened and dinosaurs continue to roam the land, receipts should at least be healthy for the resurgent studio tackling a theme that’s already proved a slam-dunk at the box office this year.

Where it could premiere: The Good Dinosaur doesn’t open until Christmas, but Inside Out benefited hugely from screening months ahead of its release at Cannes to get the buzz building. Pixar could do something similar for this release, probably at AFI fest.



Possible major nominations: Animated feature.

The Hateful Eight

Quentin Tarantino’s last two movies (Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained) were both revisionist spaghetti westerns and among his best-received. The Hateful Eight, shot in 70mm and about a motley crew of 19th century bounty hunters and criminals who take refuge in a stagecoach stopover on a mountain pass to shelter from a blizzard, will hope to make it a hat-trick. Kurt Russell, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Walton Goggins, Demian Bichir, Tim Roth, Michael Madsen, Bruce Dern and Tarantino regular Samuel L Jackson all star.

Where it could premiere: With a Christmas Day release, Tarantino may favour a late autumn premiere at AFI fest.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director and screenplay.

A Hologram for the King

Tom Hanks and co-star Jay Abdo during filming. Photograph: Jay Abdo via Twitter

Tom Hanks is set for a heck of an autumn. On top of starring in Bridge of Spies, Hanks also leads A Hologram for the King, reuniting him with one of his Cloud Atlas directors, Tom Tykwer. If the roles compete against each other, our money is on this one to net him a nomination; here Hanks plays a desperate American salesman waiting an eternity to meet a Saudi Arabian billionaire.

Where it could premiere: Tykwer has previously had great success at Venice, so look for it to premiere there.



Possible major nominations: Actor for Hanks.

In the Heart of the Sea

Ron Howard’s ocean adventure was set to open in March, but Warner Bros decided at the last-minute to push it to mid-December, during the heat of awards season – a substantial vote of confidence. With Howard at the helm, a starry cast led by Chris Hemsworth and a Moby Dick-sized tale at its core, In the Heart of the Sea might well be worth the wait.

Where it could premiere: Howard’s last two films, Made in America and Rush, played at Tiff, but with a December release locked in, we think this will debut at either NYFF or AFI.



Possible major nominations: Picture and director.

I Saw the Light

Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams. Photograph: PR

Tom Hiddleston puts his American accent to the test as Hank Williams in this biopic of the country music icon, who died at just 29 of heart failure in 1953. Elizabeth Olsen is his wife; Hiddleston does all his own singing.

Where it could premiere: Telluride followed by Tiff would be a great awards launch for this under-the-radar contender.

Possible major nominations: Actor for Hiddleston and actress for Olsen.

Jane Got a Gun

Despite all the problems that have plagued Natalie Portman’s upcoming western, Jane Got a Gun still begs interest. Warrior director Gavin O’Connor is a sturdy replacement for departing director Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin), and the supporting cast, including Ewan McGregor and Joel Edgerton, is stellar.

Where it could premiere: Given that it opens 4 September in the US, Venice is its only option.

Possible major nominations: Actress for Portman.

Joy

Former enfant terrible David O Russell is now something of an establishment Academy figure, with The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle all resonating strongly with Oscar voters. Here he gives Jennifer Lawrence her own vehicle: a fact-based comedy drama about a single mother of three who becomes a successful businesswoman after inventing the Miracle Mop. Lawrence’s frequent collaborator Bradley Cooper co-stars, as do Robert De Niro, Isabella Rossellini and Virginia Madsen.

Where it could premiere: Premiering at Tiff worked out well for Silver Linings Playbook, but that film opened in the US in November, while Joy has a Christmas Day release. His latest might take the American Hustle route and opt for a standard premiere over a festival debut.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actress for Lawrence and screenplay.

Legend

Tom Hardy has two shots at the best actor prize in this Kray twins biopic from Brian Helgeland (who directed 42 and adapted LA Confidential) – he plays both Ronnie and Reg, the gangster brothers who terrorised London during the 1950s and 1960s. Christopher Eccleston co-stars at the cop keen to put them behind bars.

Where it could premiere: With an October US release date, expect to see Legend make its debut at Tiff.



Possible major nominations: Best actor for Hardy – though probably just once.

The Light Between Oceans

Co-stars Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander at the Formula One Grand Prix at Monaco. Photograph: Mark Thompson/Getty Images

Derek Cianfrance impressed with singular showcase indie dramas Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines. This year he’s back with his first studio effort, The Light Between Oceans, a star-packed affair based on a bestselling novel by ML Stedman, about a lighthouse keeper and his wife, who decide to raise a baby they rescue from an adrift rowboat in western Australia. Michael Fassbender, Alicia Vikander and Rachel Weisz all star.

Where it could premiere: Production reportedly wrapped last October, so the film should be ready to launch at Telluride or Tiff, where Cianfrance debuted The Place Beyond the Pines.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actor for Fassbender, actress for Vikander, supporting actress for Weisz and screenplay.

Macbeth

Justin Kurzel’s follow-up to Snowtown split some critics upon its debut at Cannes in May, but the majority agreed that its two leads, Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard, give it their all in this bracing Shakespeare adaptation. Each could figure in the awards race, with enough of a push from distributor Harvey Weinstein.

Possible major nominations: Actor for Fassbender and actress for Cotillard.



Manchester-by-the-Sea

It took six years for Kenneth Lonergan’s ecstatically received Margaret to find its way to cinemas following a raft of creative and legal issues. Luckily for the You Can Count On Me writer/director, the same fate won’t befall his latest family drama. Starring Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams and Kyle Chandler, the film follows a plumber whose family secrets begin to haunt him shortly when he returns home.

Where it could premiere: Telluride or Tiff seem likely.



Possible major nominations: Screenplay; Lonergan has been nominated twice for that award.

The Martian

It’s rare that a big budget sci-fi epic is included in awards talk, but just two years ago, Gravity’s Alfonso Cuarón proved it can be done. The Martian’s October release date suggests Ridley Scott hopes to follow suit. Its parallels with Gravity extend to the plot: a stranded astronaut (Matt Damon) is struggling to survive on Mars and find his way home. Jessica Chastain, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Jeff Daniels and Kristen Wiig co-star.

Where it could premiere: A Tiff premiere would give The Martian a good launch – though Venice has form with space race pics.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actor for Damon and screenplay.

Miles Ahead

Playing legendary musicians has worked out well for actors in the past, so hopes are high that Don Cheadle hits it out of the park with his portrayal of jazz legend Miles Davis in the actor’s directorial debut. A score by jazz master Herbie Hancock bodes well; the supporting cast includes Ewan McGregor and Keith Stanfield.

Where it could premiere: Brian Wilson biopic Love & Mercy picked up a lot of attention following its Tiff premiere last year. Miles Ahead would be wise to sing the same tune.



Possible major nominations: Actor for Cheadle.

Our Brand is Crisis

Sandra Bullock on the set of Our Brand is Crisis. Photograph: PR

Sandra Bullock hasn’t appeared on the big screen since netting an Oscar nomination for her work in Gravity. She headlines this adaptation of the 2005 documentary about US political consultants hired to to help an American-educated Bolivian politician win the 2002 Bolivian presidential election. David Gordon Green (Prince Avalanche) directs.

Where it could premiere: Green premiered his last two films at Venice, so the Lido is a good bet.

Possible major nominations: Screenplay.

The Program

Director Stephen Frears’s track record with actors is impressive. Daniel Day-Lewis’s breakthrough role was in My Beautiful Launderette; Chiwetel Ejiofor’s career was given a major boost by Dirty Pretty Things. As well as spotting newcomers, he can also shepherd veterans towards the podium; Helen Mirren won an Oscar for The Queen; Judi Dench a nomination for Philomena. So Ben Foster, who plays Lance Armstrong in new drama The Program, would do well to practice his speeches. The film follows Armstrong from the start of his career, through his cancer battle, and to almost the present day, as he grapples with the ramifications of his doping being exposed. The role should propel the Six Feet Under and Lone Survivor actor into leading man territory. Chris O’Dowd and Guillaume Canet co-star.

Where it could premiere: Venice seems a good bet as Philomena made a splash there, but Frears also his history with Telluride.



Possible major nominations: Actor for Foster.

The Revenant

Less than a year after Birdman nabbed him best director and best picture from Richard Linklater’s clutches, Alejandro González Iñárritu is already back in the race. Iñárritu was in the midst of shooting The Revenant while campaigning on behalf of Birdman and his latest is touted as another high-wire act – it took nine months to shoot, in remote outdoor locations. Set in the 1820s, the film has Leonardo DiCaprio embarking on an epic journey of revenge after being left for dead following a bear mauling. Tom Hardy co-stars.

Where it could premiere: Rumours are circulating that the film won’t be ready in time for any festival play before its December release, due to bad weather delaying an already lengthy shoot.

Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actor for DiCaprio and screenplay.

Room

Brie Larson at the 2013 Sundance film festival. Photograph: Victoria Will/Invision/AP

Brie Larson was a knockout in Short Term 12 and quietly impressive in Trainwreck. Now, she’s back in contention for Room, based on Emma Donoghue’s bestseller about a young boy held captive – along with his mother – for his entire life. Lenny Abrahamson directs; Joan Allen and William H Macy lend support.

Where it could premiere: A Tiff screening would drum up buzz around Larson’s performance.



Possible major nominations: Actress for Larson.

The Secret in their Eyes

This English-language remake of 2010’s Oscar winner for best foreign language film stars the killer trio of Chiwetel Ejiofor, Julia Roberts and Nicole Kidman. Directed by Billy Ray (Shattered Glass), the three play FBI agents embroiled in an arduous hunt for the killer of one of their daughters.

Where it could premiere: A glitzy Tiff premiere looks in order.



Possible major nominations: Supporting actress for Roberts (who plays the grieving mother).

Snowden

Laura Poitras won the best documentary Oscar this year for Citizenfour, her profile of Edward Snowden, the former CIA employee who leaked classified documents from the National Security Agency to newspapers including this one. Now, she’s one of the real-life figures played by actors in Snowden, Oliver Stone’s drama based on the books The Snowden Files by Luke Harding and Time of the Octopus by Anatoly Kucherena. Joseph Gordon-Levitt stars, with Shailene Woodley as his girlfriend, and Zachary Quinto and Tom Wilkinson as Guardian journalists Glenn Greenwald and Ewen MacAskill. Stone’s last few movies were tepidly received; the source material and subject matter should up his game here.

Where it could premiere: The teaser featured no footage, so it’s possible the film won’t be ready for festival play before its Christmas Day release.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actor for Gordon-Levitt, supporting actress for Woodley and screenplay.

Son of Saul

A major hit with critics at Cannes, where it won the runner-up prize to the Palme d’Or, Son of Saul is one of the most intense Holocaust movies ever attempted. Told from the perspective of a Hungarian-Jewish prisoner in Auschwitz tasked with the disposal of gas chamber victims, it’s the work of first-time feature director László Nemes, previously a mentee for Béla Tarr. Sony Pictures Classics acquired it out of Cannes, boding very well for its Oscar chances.

Possible major nominations: Locked for foreign language feature, but could also net picture, director and actor for Géza Röhrig, who plays Saul.



Spotlight

Oscar-nominated actor/writer/director Tom McCarthy was on a roll as a film-maker after The Station Agent, The Visitor and Win Win all won raves. He faltered horribly with last year’s Tiff premiere The Cobbler, but this latest looks to haul him back on track. Michael Keaton, Rachel McAdams, John Slattery, Mark Ruffalo, Liev Schreiber, Stanley Tucci and Billy Crudup star as the Pulitzer prize-winning Boston Globe team who uncovered a massive child molestation cover-up within the local Catholic archdiocese.

Where it could premiere: Rumoured to be in contention to open Tiff, according to Screen Daily.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director, screenplay.

Steve Jobs

Five years after The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin (who won an Oscar for that screenplay) again gets inside the mind of a tech pioneer. In Danny Boyle’s movie, Michael Fassbender plays the Apple co-founder; a role attempted two years back by Ashton Kutcher. Unlike that critically-bashed biopic, this has a compressed timeframe, focusing on three iconic product launches and ending in 1998 with the unveiling of the iMac.

Where it could premiere: The Social Network premiered at NYFF before going to dominate awards season. This will likely follow the same path.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actor for Fassbender, supporting actress for Winslet (who plays right-hand woman Joanna Hoffman) and screenplay.

Suffragette

Patricia Arquette’s rousing Oscar acceptance speech earlier this year demanding equal pay jump-started a still-running debate about gender inequality in Hollywood. Fertile territory into which to launch this drama about the story behind the Women’s Social and Political Union, told through the eyes of a young mother (Carey Mulligan). Meryl Streep plays Emmeline Pankhurst (Iron Lady writer Abi Morgan has also scripted), while Helena Bonham Carter, Brendan Gleeson and Ben Whishaw co-star.

Where it could premiere: The film is locked in to open the London film festival in October. Our vote is for a Telluride/Toronto campaign beforehand.



Possible major nominations: Picture, actress for Mulligan and supporting actress for Bonham Carter and/or Streep.

Sunset Song

Four years following his acclaimed adaptation of Rattigan’s 1952 play The Deep Blue Sea, Terence Davies hops back another 20 years with his movie of Lewis Grassic Gibbon’s popular novel. Model-turned-actor Agyness Deyn leads the cast as the daughter of a Scottish farmer, coming of age in the early 1900s. The great Peter Mullan co-stars.

Where it could premiere: Tiff is likely, since Davies premiered The Deep Blue Sea there in 2011.

Possible major nominations: Actress for Deyn and supporting actor for Mullan.

Truth



Robert Redford in Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Photograph: Allstar/Marvel Studios

Zodiac screenwriter James Vanderbilt makes his directorial debut with this timely thriller about the Rathergate scandal that ended the careers of veteran CBS newsman Dan Rather and 60 Minutes producer Mary Mapes, on whose book the film is based. Robert Redford, robbed of a nomination for All is Lost a couple of years back, is Rather, with Cate Blanchett as Mapes. Dennis Quaid, Topher Grace and Elisabeth Moss also feature.

Where it could premiere: Sony Pictures Classics frequently premiere their fall slate at Telluride, so a premiere there seems like a good bet.



Possible major nominations: Actor for Redford, supporting actress for Blanchett and Moss.

Youth

Michael Caine entered the Oscar race back in May upon the debut of Paolo Sorrentino’s follow-up to Oscar winner The Great Beauty. In Youth, Sorrentino’s first English-language feature since 2011’s This Must Be the Place, Caine gives a tremendously appealing performance as a famed composer, enjoying an extended stay at an elegant hotel at the foot of the Alps. Keitel is amusing as Caine’s best friend and cameoing Jane Fonda a force of nature.

Possible major nominations: Actor for Michael Caine, supporting actor for Harvey Keitel, supporting actress for a scene-stealing Jane Fonda and screenplay.



The Walk

James Marsh won an Oscar for telling the story of Philippe Petit’s 1974 high-wire act between the Twin Towers in the documentary Man on Wire. Robert Zemeckis hopes to do the same in the dramatic categories with this 3D fictionalised version with Joseph Gordon-Levitt as the Frenchman.

Where it could premiere: The Walk is already confirmed to open NYFF, which bodes very well for its awards prospects. Gone Girl, Life of Pi and The Social Network all took the same spot in past years.



Possible major nominations: Picture, director and actor for Gordon-Levitt.