Manning Mitchell is the type of resident Launceston is desperate to attract.

Key points: Hobart's population is growing at almost twice the rate of Tasmania's second largest city, Launceston

Hobart's population is growing at almost twice the rate of Tasmania's second largest city, Launceston Modelling predicts Launceston's working age population could shrink by more than 5,000 people by 2031



Modelling predicts Launceston's working age population could shrink by more than 5,000 people by 2031 Population experts are recommending a focus on the healthcare and social assistance sectors to attract more people to Launceston

The 26-year-old podiatrist had never visited the northern Tasmanian city before he moved from Melbourne in 2018, but he has no regrets.

"It's 15, 20 minutes to get anywhere around town, you'll get a park anywhere within 50 metres if you've got to go into town to do something, there's cafes, bars," he said.

Mr Mitchell has made friends and joined a local football club.

"It's worked out really well to be honest, who knows how long I'll stay," he said.

Without international immigration, Launceston's population would be going backwards. ( Flickr: Michael Coghlan )

A tale of two cities

While Hobart and south-east Tasmania recorded population growth of 1.5 per cent in the 2017-18 financial year, the growth rate in Launceston and north east Tasmania was almost half that at 0.8 per cent.

Demographer Dr Lisa Denny said without international immigration, mainly made up of refugees and international students, Launceston's population would be going backwards.

"Launceston's population is stagnating, it's slow, it's very low growth and it does lose people to other areas of Tasmania and Australia," she said.

The changing make-up of Launceston's population is also fuelling concerns about a shrinking pool of working-age residents.

Between 2011 and 2016, the Launceston region gained an extra 2,000 residents aged 55 or older.

But the proportion of residents between the ages of 15 and 54 shrank by 600.

The Northern Tasmania Development Corporation (NTDC) commissioned the National Institute for Economic and Industry Research to model future population growth in the region and found the picture for working-age population could worsen.

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The modelling predicts that without intervention the working-age population in Launceston will shrink by more than 5,000 by 2031.

Boom town: Hobart

Two hundred kilometres south, in Hobart, nurse Jenni King said she could see signs of population growth all around her.

"You can see with the infrastructure being built with the housing and stuff," she said.

"When we look from our balcony across you can see a development happening."

Nurse Jenni King moved to Hobart from Adelaide six months ago. ( ABC News: Mitchell Woolnough )

Ms King is one of about 3,300 people to swell Hobart's population during the 12 months to June 2018.

She moved to Hobart from Adelaide with her partner about six months ago and said she still often feels like she's on holiday.

"I go to work and I drive looking at the mountains around me, across the Derwent, and you just stare at Mount Wellington," Ms King said.

"I think sometimes people take it for granted but really it's a pleasure to see every day."

Launceston's beauty a 'well-kept secret'

Launceston Chamber of Commerce CEO Neil Grose said attracting more residents of working age — between 15 and 54 years — is the city's most pressing challenge.

"Unless we can get more people with appropriate skills at the right age spread, Launceston will have a significant skills challenge, even as close as the next 10 years," he said.

"Anywhere where there's a high level of skill, anywhere where there's competition nationally for those skills, we're really struggling."

Edward Obi wants everyone to know about the beauty of Tasmania's north. ( ABC News: Laura Beavis )

The NTDC wants to attract an extra 6,000 working-age residents to the region over the next eight years.

Edward Obi, who moved to Launceston just over a year ago, has taken on the role of population attraction coordinator for the NTDC.

"The beauty of northern Tasmania is a well-kept secret, and this is not good, we should send the word out," he said.

Mr Obi said he wanted local councils to develop strategies to help recent migrants integrate more easily into their local communities.

"They are really welcoming, in their own way, it's just it's lost in translation," he said.

"This has to be directed at councils, they have to initiate and coordinate cohesive community building programs."

Look to care jobs for a healthy future

Launceston's job market has been squeezed by changing employment trends.

Demographer Lisa Denny says health care will be a huge industry for Tasmania in the future. ( ABC News: Aneeta Bhole )

Eight hundred jobs were lost in the manufacturing sector that traditionally fuelled the city between 2011 and 2016.

And while the agriculture and forestry sectors are growing in value, they only created 100 new jobs over the same period.

Tasmania's most valuable industry — both in terms of job creation and economic value — is the health care and social assistance sector.

Dr Denny said economic modelling predicted the sector would generate an extra 4,400 jobs over the next five years.

"That's twice as many as construction and four times as many as education and training jobs, so it's a really important sector into our future," she said.

Hobart is experiencing a population boom. ( ABC News )

Dr Denny urged Launceston to look to the sector to help shore up its population future.

"There are opportunities there I guess to benefit from economies of scale, and the provision of health care, and the infrastructure and logistics that are associated with that from a central location."

Mr Mitchell is confident the health care industry will continue creating jobs in the region.

"There's plenty of work around Tassie, with the ageing population there's a lot of retired people that live in Tasmania, and there's a lot of work there."

"I know [our clinic is] hiring, right now."