A new Public Policy Polling survey of Missouri voters finds that Claire McCaskill leads Republican challenger Josh Hawley 45-44 for reelection. The political climate in Missouri has shifted in a number of ways since 2016 that greatly improve McCaskill’s reelection chances:

-Voters in the state are almost evenly divided now on Donald Trump, with 48% approving of him to 47% who disapprove. That represents a sharp decline in Trump’s popularity given his 19 point victory in the state, but is also consistent with the decline in his approval numbers seen across the country.

-Only 28% of voters in the state want a Senator who is loyal to Donald Trump and wants to promote his agenda, to 64% who prefer someone that is independent and will put Missouri first.

-Senate Republicans have a terrible brand in Missouri. Only 23% of voters in the state approve of the job Mitch McConnell is doing as Senate Majority Leader, to 54% who disapprove. That is likely to make voters less inclined to send another vote for his agenda to Washington.

-Republicans have also hurt themselves on several key issues in Missouri in the last year. Only 38% of voters think the best path forward on health care is to repeal the Affordable Care Act, while 54% would rather keep it in place and makes fixes to it as necessary. Voters strongly prefer the approach Claire McCaskill has taken on health care to what the Republicans have tried to do.

-There’s also strong bipartisan support for DACA, where the Republicans in Washington have dragged their feet. 61% of voters support it to only 27% who are opposed- that includes 74/17 support from Democrats, 63/23 from independents, and 45/42 even from GOP voters.

Public Policy Polling interviewed 965 Missouri voters on January 8th and 9th. Respondents with landlines were reached over the telephone, with respondents who don’t have landlines interviewed online. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%. This research was conducted on behalf of The Majority Institute.

Full results here