Elimination via Negan’s lines

Spoilers, obvs, in case it isn’t already.

So the line up is: Glenn / Rosita / Daryl / Michonne / Abraham / Maggie / Rick / Sasha / Aaron / Carl / Eugene

We can exclude Carl (as cutting an eye out then becomes no threat) and Rick (cos Rick).



And then from Negan’s lines and who he’s directing them at, there’s more exclusions that can be made:

> “cut the boy’s other eye out” (Negan gestures 2+ people to victim’s left)

… so the victim has to be to 2+ spaces to Carl’s right

… which excludes: Eugene + Aaron

> “you can breathe” (Negan looks to the victim’s right , 2/3 people along)

> “you can blink” (Negan looks to the victim’s left, ½ people along)

> “you can cry” (Negan looks to the victim’s right, ½ people along)

… so the victim has to have 2+ people on either side of them

… which excludes: Glenn + Rosita + Carl + Eugene



The remaining line up definitively becomes:

Daryl / Michonne / Abraham / Maggie / Sasha

Unless they want to completely ignore everything JDM did in that scene, that cannot change. Glenn cannot die. There are definitely two people to the right of the victim, and Glenn is on the end of the line.



He’s unlikely to choose Maggie . She’s already so weak that her death wouldn’t seem like such a hit to the group from Negan’s POV. Additionally, after the first hit, the person is still kneeling and “taking it like a champ"; Maggie would be collapsed at that point.



It’s unlikely to be Daryl - they can’t give him a meaningless death, which is what this becomes due to the months between the emotion and ”reveal”, and while they feel its worth angering people for the sake of ratings at this point, the backlash from killing Daryl on the return and “ruining” his death via the cliffhanger would seem unwise to them. It would be one step too far. (And if they didn’t have the balls to kill him in the finale, they won’t have them in 701). Also, ditto for the collapsing argument - he’s already in a stooped, weakened posture from his gunshot wound.



Then there’s 2 reasons they went with a “cliffhanger”: (1) for high viewership in 701, and (2) because they aren’t going to kill a major enough character, and don’t want the finale to fall flat because of it - this further eliminates the chances of it being Daryl, and now also Michonne . If they were going to kill either of those two (or Glenn, or Rick, or Carl), in the long run the episode would get more kudos for being complete, so they’d have finished it properly.



Finally, there’s quite a pivot on Negan when he’s talking to the person who can “breathe”, which indicates against it being Sasha , since the people 2/3 spaces to her right are parallel to her, not at an angle.

… which then leaves Abraham as the most likely victim. He would “take it like a champ”. He said goodbye to Eugene, spoke about his future (babies) with Sasha, had importance driving the van, and overall got a lot of screen time (note also that Michonne and Daryl did not - they barely featured in the episode). But if they decide to cop out and ignore the pivot, they could go with Sasha. (And if they really want to fuck up, yk, Aaron.)