31 January 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals have a two-point lead over the opposition Conservatives, with Andrew Scheer’s party narrowing the gap since November.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 7941 Canadians between January 12th and 17th 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.1% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals maintain their lead and are still the favourites to win the election if these numbers hold until October,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Conservative vote remains inefficient thanks to their very large leads in the Prairies.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 37.2% support (-2.1% since our last poll in November), while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 35.1% (+0.5%). The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 11.5% support (+0.7%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 7.2% (+0.4%). The Bloc Quebecois have 3.2% (-0.2%) overall, but have 13.5% in Quebec. The People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier have 4.2% (+0.4 %).

“The one major change since November is that the Liberals have surrendered the lead in BC to the Conservatives,” added Maggi. “This is due to an uptick in support for the NDP in that province.”



The Conservatives have a two point lead in British Columbia, while the Liberals have large leads in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals lead in Ontario is now six points, down from an eleven point lead in November.

The poll also asked whether Canadians were optimistic or pessimistic about their personal finances and the Canadian economy in general. The survey found that 55.3% of respondents were optimistic about the Canadian economy (-3.7% from November), with 17% being very optimistic (-3.3%).

Canadians remain similarly optimistic about their personal finances, but again less optimistic than they were in November. 61.2% were optimistic for the coming year (-1.4%), with nearly 23% being very optimistic (-2%).

“If voters are feeling good about the economy, then they will likely vote for the governing party,” concluded Maggi. “It is no accident to see the Liberals take a small dip as Canadians’ economic optimism has fallen slightly.”

-30-