Posted in Real Estate, Statistics |

Mexican Stand Off

Buying or Selling Vancouver real estate has become a Mexican Standoff.

Formula

It was inevitable for Vancouver’s real estate market to reach this evolutionary point. How could it not? The mix of a ‘last gasp – vote securing’ 15% foreign national tax on property purchases, banks with lending practices that favored individuals with “Welcome to Canada” mortgages, a select group of nefarious Realtors – yes they exist, who conveniently forgot who they were working for and a middle class (what’s left of it) screaming at the unfairness of a unlevel playing field. All have combined to leave September’s market in a stand off where sellers are holding on to high asking prices and buyers are keeping their money in their pockets.

Average Price 1977 – 2016

Vancouver Real Estate Average Numbers

Detached Attached Apartment Sept 16 – $1,532,242 8% Sept 16 – $741,985 +15% Sept 16 – $549,214 +14% Sept 15 – $1,408,722 Sept 15 – $640,395 Sept 15 – $479,168

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Detached Attached Apartment Sept 16 – 5,432 +18% Sept 16 – 1,175 -17% Sept 16 – 2,747 -42% Sept 15 – 4,577 Sept 15 – 1,431 Sept 15 – 4,797

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

Detached Attached Apartment Sept 16 – 672 -47% Sept 16 – 370 -31% Sept 16 – 1,219 -20% Sept 15 – 1,286 Sept 15 – 544 Sept 15 – 1,529

Yattermatters – Average Price September 2016

*Percentage = YOY

Stalemate

Vancouver’s home buyers and sellers are testing each other in this standoff. The standoff puffery is seen in the still high prices and low sales volume. In a short time this will be recognized in its true form – a stalemate. In this game of push and shove with buyers and sellers competing the buyers will be checked. The check will be forced not by governments or banks, but by geography.

Ever increasing prices are inevitable. Those who choose to live in this city have little choice. The concept of affordable housing are “moonbeam” dreams that are forever disturbed by Vancouver’s limited geography which continues to force the abandonment of Vancouver’s parochial dream of being a reasonably priced city in which to live.

Expo 86 and the Winter 2010 Olympics were the city’s great selling opportunity of the century. It worked! Back then business leaders, city and provincial fathers wanted this place to grow up and it has. However, it seems their visions did not take into account what growing up would mean to future generations seeking to buy a home in Vancouver.

The result of that masterful selling job is that more and more people want to live in Vancouver and they are welcome but, they should clearly understand the disclaimer on the entrance ticket. Buying or renting a home in this city commands a high price. Further, as each new ticket sells the price of the next increases. Retrospectively, today’s prices may be a bargain.