patna

Updated: Dec 25, 2018 14:03 IST

Ahead of the 2020 assembly elections when he is likely to seek a seventh term as the chief minister, Nitish Kumar faces a crucial test of his brand in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when he would like to repeat NDA’s 2009 performance in the hope of another repeat of 2010 NDA landslide in assembly polls a year later.

The reasons are simple. He is the man BJP has decided to bank on, even at the cost of old allies like Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) – Secular. In fact, BJP has to content itself with a huge climbdown to keep its crucial allies JD(U) and LJP in the NDA fold on their terms.

BJP believes brand Nitish is the safest bet against a resurgent UPA, which includes RJD, Congress, HAM, RLSP, left parties and several other smaller groups.

A senior BJP leader said poll arithmetic too supported the BJP’s strategy. “Bihar politics revolves round a triangle of BJP, JD(U) and the RJD. Any two sides joining hands have a clear edge over the third, as was proved in 2009 Lok Sabha polls and 2015 assembly polls,” he said.

Tn 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the JD(U) and the BJP contested 25 and 15 seats, respectively. JD(U) won 20 of them, while BJP bagged 12 in a near sweep for NDA. The victory was promptly credited to Nitish government’s good governance.

In 2014, Lok Sabha polls, BJP, RJD and JD(U) fought separately and BJP walked away with glory.

In 2014, Kumar broke the alliance with the BJP and went alone in the polls, but his party could win just two of the total 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state. BJP won 22 of the 29 seats it contested in a total NDA tally of 31. BJP got 29.9% votes out of NDA’s 39.4%, while the UPA got 30.2% and others got 30.4% votes, including the bulk 16.0% going to JD-U.

After the NDA realignment, the composition has changed. The JD(U), which fought independently in 2014, is now with the BJP, while two NDA constituents, RLSP and HAM-S, have croosed over to the UPA. The RLSP had got 3.1% votes, but won all three seats it contested in the Modi wave. The LJP, which won six out of the seven seats last time, accounted for 6.5% votes and has remained with the NDA.

This makes NDA (with BJP’s 29.9%, JD(U)’s 16% and LJP’s 6.5%) appear statistically formidable with an aggregate of 52% votes if the 2014 trend is maintained. RJD (20.5%), Congress (8.6%) and others (13.5%) put together still fall way short of NDA.

But, in politics, two plus two is not four. Barely a year after the 2014 LS polls, the BJP suffered a sharp dip in its vote share in the 2015 assembly polls, in which RJD, JD(U) and the Congress fought unitedly. The RJD, which emerged as the largest party, is now tying up with Congress and many other smaller but significant parties to make up for the JD(U)’s absence. Besides, it is trying hard to win the perception battle to pay back the JD(U) in the same coin on the law and order issue, as it had to face in 2005 assembly polls.

“NDA will do better than 2014 in Bihar this time. BJP and JD(U) have always done well together, as it is a natural combination in Bihar’s interest. The smooth way in which seat-sharing talks have gone on shows the deep understanding and trust within NDA,” said Bihar’s health minister Mangal Pandey, who was the state party president during the last Lok Sabha polls.

JD(U) general secretary KC Tyagi said it was the era of coalition. “Besides, there will be no wave this time. It is also no time to decide who is bigger and who is smaller. It is time for a realistic assessment. Nitish Kumar is a tall figure with acceptance across all sections and his image will certainly be a big boost for the NDA. If statistics are any indication, NDA has nothing to worry about, except in Kishanganj and Katihar. The Lok Sabha results will certainly pave the way for Nitish Kumar again in 2020 also,” he said.

Shaibal Gupta, member secretary of the Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI) and social analyst, said Nitish Kumar had become indispensable for the NDA and his stock and brand had increased manifold in the background of recent reverses the BJP faced in the heartland. “BJP could not afford to lose a high-profile ally like JD(U). The organsiations which were dispensable for the BJP have been dispensed with. We may see Nitish-centric campaign in Bihar,” he said.

Tyagi, however, said as long as Lalu Prasad and Tejashwhi were holding the RJD flag, the perception battle would always go in favour of Nitish Kumar. “People still recall the horror days of RJD era. Even if people compare present Nitish era with his past performance and try to find deficiencies, it will still be a contrast to the dark days of the RJD,” he said.

RJD and the Congress, however, have gone on an overdrive to nail the government on the law and order issue. “The slide of the NDA is stark and steep. It is visible to all, though BJP leaders may try to put up a brave front. The climbdown says a lot about their shaken confidence. People are not ready to fall for glib talk once again. In Bihar also, Nitish Kumar has little to show except rhetoric and the people will teach them a lesson this time,” said RJD leader Alok Mehta.

2014 LS polls vote share

BJP: 29.9

RJD 20.5

JD-U 16.0

Cong 8.6

LJP 6.5

RLSP 3.1