Matthew Stafford was limited to eight games last season and has dealt with three back injuries in the past calendar year.

The Lions quarterback was playing some of the best ball of his career before going down with fractured bones in his back, though, and his level of play was reason enough for one ESPN analyst to pencil him in as the 2020 NFL MVP.

“Mahomes is still the game’s best player, but Stafford was playing really good football before his midseason back issues,” ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler writes (ESPN Insider). “If he leads Detroit to contention, which isn’t so farfetched considering the talent around him, he’ll be in the MVP mix because he puts up numbers and the NFC North is as open as Kenny Golladay."

Fowler’s optimism in Stafford and the Lions came in an ESPN panel running through early predictions for next season.

Related: Ex-Lions WR Nate Burleson: Might be time for Detroit to move into post-Matthew Stafford era

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, this 31 yard Touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to Kenny Golladay had only a 21.4-percent change of being completed. The 5th most “improbable completion” of Week 2.pic.twitter.com/Hdj7GStlYI — Erik Schlitt (@erikschlitt) September 16, 2019

Stafford missed the final eight games of the season, and the Lions went 0-8 with a combination of David Blough and Jeff Driskel under center. Before going down, Stafford averaged 312.4 passing yards per game, 8.6 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 106.0.

Those average passing yards per game and yards per attempt were both second-best in the league. Stafford’s 106.0 QB rating represented a career-high and the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

He was one of the most valuable players in the game over the first half of the season while playing an impressive level of efficient football. Stafford was slinging the ball deep more than ever, and seemed to click in first-year offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s system very quickly.

Matthew Stafford average depth of target:



2015: 6.9

2016: 7.9

2017: 8.8

2018: 7.1

2019: 11.4! — Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) January 16, 2020

For an idea of just how well the veteran gunslinger was playing, FootballOutsiders measured Stafford as the fourth most valuable quarterback on a per-play basis. The metric used for this is DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), and Stafford’s marks trailed only Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes last season.

Despite this, Stafford’s back issues have many speculating about Detroit’s interest in Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the third overall pick in April’s draft. Stafford has clearly stated that he’s not concerned with this most recent injury, nor the risks it could happen again or lead to other ailments.

Related: Matthew Stafford’s back already feeling ‘really good,’ should be good to go for offseason program

He has three years left on his current deal with an annual rate of $27 million. His cap hit sits at $21.3 million next year before jumping to $33 million in 2021. Stafford restructured his deal following the season, which added a voidable year while spreading out a $6 million roster bonus over five seasons.

The idea of adding an elite quarterback prospect on a friendly contract is a proven route in the league, but Stafford’s play and track-record of durability are hard to top.

Fowler was alone in picking Stafford as next season’s MVP, but Field Yates said the Lions were the team he’s most interested in for the upcoming draft.

“There are three prospects in this class who are regarded -- if healthy --- as franchise cornerstones: quarterback Joe Burrow, pass-rusher Chase Young and Tagovailoa,” Yates writes. “The Lions pick third and could be an ideal trade-up slot for teams looking at the top quarterback prospects. It could lead to quite a haul for a team with several needs.”

Related: Lions 2019 review: A tale of two seasons at quarterback