This is an election driven by fear. But not fear whipped up among an impressionable group of voters, as runs the usual story. Two weeks in and the people running scared are the people running for office.

The last few days (until the federal police raids, more of which later) have been consumed with a debate about Peter Dutton’s comments on illiterate refugees, with opinion among reasonable people divided about whether his comments were accidental or deliberate, and whether they helped or hindered the Coalition.

Regardless of your views (my sense is that the answers to both questions lie somewhere between the two extremes), we shouldn’t accept the prime minister’s assurance yesterday that he has only focused on border protection “when it’s been raised with me”, because actually, he says, he’s interested in jobs and growth.

Well, perhaps I should be more generous. Technically, I suppose, he is trying to talk about economics every day. Here, for example, is how he began his press conference on Tuesday, even before the Dutton fracas took off:

I’ve come to Darwin to talk about our national economic plan. I’ve described that, as you saw, in the politics in the pub session last night with Natasha. Underpinning our national economic plan, underpinning the economic security of our nation is a strong force on the border, the Australian Border Force. Ensuring that we control our borders is absolutely critical for the security and the prosperity for the future of Australia.

“Technically”, I think you’ll agree, is the right word.

And this is how we know the Coalition is terrified (we’ll come to Labor in a moment): the PM’s obvious determination to focus on the Coalition’s strongong suit of border security. You don’t need Dutton to show this, you only need Tuesday’s comments.

All of this goes to the strategic thinking which is so far governing the Coalition’s campaign. There’s been a lot of chest-beating about Turnbull disappointing people, but nobody was quite sure what the campaign would show. So far the indication is that the PM has made a strategic judgment that running an old-school Liberal election campaign, with shades of both 2001 and 2004, is what must be done to stay in office. If refusing to back away from divisive rhetoric has to be part of that, then so be it. It may be mildly galling for Turnbull personally, but nevertheless it’s the decision he appears to have made. Now forget about the moral judgment for a moment: he’s not the first political leader to make a ruthlessly pragmatic choice in the middle of a campaign. What does it tell us?

The Liberals are not, right now, on track to lose the election. Polling suggests a narrow win, and there is still some reason to think the fundamentals (it’s too soon to go back to Labor, we’re not going to kick out a first-term government, we like Malcolm more) will kick in at some stage. But right now something is showing up that worries them. My guess would be that it’s a combination of the “out of touch” attack on Turnbull, Labor’s campaign on health and education versus company tax cuts, and growing respect for Shorten. The budget sell has not gone well. Experienced political operatives often say you shouldn’t look at the raw numbers, but instead look at the trend. I suspect something wasn’t trending well after the first week.

The Coalition can take some comfort from the fact that Labor is just as frightened. Also on Tuesday, Shorten, before taking questions, told the press pack:

I just want to make some comments about Mr Turnbull and some of the dishonest things he’s been saying about Labor. He has clearly decided that he is going to say as often as he can that Labor won’t tackle the people smugglers and he’s also clearly decided to say as often as he can that in the event of a hung parliament Labor would form a coalition with the Greens. There is no truth to any aspect or any detail of what he’s saying.

A pre-emptive intervention like that, early in the campaign, suggests that Labor knows those two related attacks are damaging its standing. You don’t draw more attention to your own weaknesses unless you’re convinced they are weaknesses. Shorten clearly had no choice.

Again, we are almost certainly talking about a trend here. It is unlikely Labor’s numbers have plummeted quite yet – there’s not really been any stunning new information. But Shorten is worried about becoming the proverbial frog in the water slowly brought to a boil, unaware of the heat until it’s well and truly cooked.

The consequence of all this fear among our politicians is that they want to scare the hell out of us, too. The Coalition’s guilt on this is obvious, what with refugees taking our jobs and sucking up welfare. But think about Labor’s major policies so far. Changes to negative gearing are being sold via an attack on Turnbull’s wealth. The biggest announcement of the campaign came this week, and it was a Labor promise not to proceed with a Liberal policy. The hustings don’t reek of either “positive policies” or “intelligent debate” so far.

Finally, in the past 24 hours we’ve had the spectacle of the federal police raiding a Labor frontbencher’s office and a Labor staffer’s house at night during a federal election campaign in order to get to the bottom of leaks about the progress of the NBN. It’s amazing stuff.

In a campaign so obviously tense and tight this is a highly unpredictable situation. The danger to Labor is real: pictures of police raids are never good for the reputation, and should the investigators find anything then things could get very sticky. But, given the explosive nature of the raids and the fact that NBN Co is owned by the government, Labor is within its rights to raise concerns [paywall]. If the faintest whiff of government interference emerges Turnbull could be hit hard (Turnbull and the AFP have strongly denied such suggestions).

There has been some speculation that Labor will be happy to have the subject switched from boats to the NBN. I don’t think that’s true today. But if the raids succeed in the longer run (or if Labor succeeds, off the back of the raids) in propelling the NBN to the centre of the campaign, and if the public suspects the government of attempting to hide evidence of an inferior NBN, then that equation could shift.

It’s just six weeks, I tell myself, just six weeks.

Today’s links

And in non-election news …

Former sex discrimination commissioner Elizabeth Broderick will lead a taskforce to clean up University of Sydney colleges.

Brigid Delaney says Queensland should not ban cigarettes for anyone born after 2001, as has been floated.

And there are even things happening outside Australia …