Saturday was a gut-wrenching experience for Sooners fans. The championship drought is at 17 years and every time we seem to be within striking distance, something like the Outrage at Owen happens. I don’t remember a letdown this bad since the 2011 disaster (also at home) versus Texas Tech. This type of loss is unacceptable. We’ve covered everything that went wrong; both TheAngrySooner and Rob offered takes on Saturday’s game.

But, it’s Texas week. We have to look back and learn, but also move forward. There are at least seven games to go, and perhaps as many as ten.

Because the College Football Playoff Committee has yet to release their ranking, I’ll refer to the AP poll as a proxy. The Sooners are ranked 12th, which means there 11 teams ahead of them. (Directly behind the Sooners are USC and Oklahoma State, so we’ll keep our eyes on them.)

Assuming each conference will send a maximum of one team (a fair assumption if there are available teams with one loss or fewer from each conference), the Sooners are guaranteed to move up a certain number of spots. (We don’t believe sending more than one team from a conference will never happen; it’s just highly improbable. If Oklahoma doesn’t lose again, that situation wouldn’t be a threat.)

Teams OU Plays

Oklahoma plays undefeated TCU on November 11th. If OU is wins out until then (Texas, Kansas State, Tech, and OSU) they’ll knock OSU out of contention and pass other teams ahead of them. Likewise, they’ll supplant TCU as conference frontrunner.

Intraconference Matchups

Four conferences besides the Big XII have teams ahead of OU… and all have at least two. Because every major conference has a championship game now, that means that only one team per conference can escape unscathed. In other words, even without chaos, no more than four teams ahead of Oklahoma can finish without losing again:

SEC: Alabama and Georgia are undefeated, Auburn has one loss. Georgia and Auburn will play in the regular season, and Georgia may meet one of them in the SEC championship game.

Big Ten: Penn State and Wisconsin are undefeated, Ohio State has one loss (to Oklahoma). Penn State plays Ohio State on 10/28 but Wisconsin can avoid both until the championship game. Ohio State winning the conference would benefit Oklahoma.

Pac 12: Washington and Washington State will play in the Apple Cup. USC is behind the Sooners, but could play one of the Washington schools in the Pac 12 championship.

ACC: Clemson and Miami don’t play in the regular season, but are in opposite divisions. This isn’t bad; late season losses are more damaging.

And, expect chaos…

That leaves us with up to four teams who can finish without losing in front of Oklahoma – but, fifth place won’t do, will it?

Just as Oklahoma can lose to Iowa State, Clemson can lose to NC State. Or Georgia can lose to Florida. Or Washington or Washington State to Stanford. Or, Ohio State can win the Big Ten – the Sooners would get the nod over the Buckeyes with all else equal. Get the picture?

Oklahoma may not be as good as we thought they were. Or, maybe Saturday was a historically bad letdown by an otherwise excellent team. If it’s the latter, we’ve got a lot of football left to play and a great shot at the College Football Playoff.