Toronto Arrows @ Houston SaberCats

I am a believer in the Arrows. I picked the Arrows last week. I tend to think, if you ask me today, that the Arrows make the playoffs. But I am not picking the Arrows in this one.

Am I holding a grudge because their near miss cost me a pick last week? No. Maybe. But I am seeing a Toronto team that continues to be burdened by Canadian call-ups. Of course, it is only Wednesday. We won’t know the lineups for at least another day. But it seems likely that Canadian internationals will be returning to Americas Rugby Championship duty rather than playing for the Arrows.

On the other hand, the last time Houston took the pitch, they narrowly lost in San Diego. It was a frustrating, but in a certain sense, confidence-building match. If they can almost bring it to San Diego on the road, they should feel good about hosting a depleted Toronto. What’s more, they will be keen to prove that they’re a better team than the last place finishers of 2018, and a 1-2 start with the only win coming against Austin isn’t exactly the way to do that.

In a tough trip south for the Arrows, I’m expecting the ‘Cats to pull off what many might consider an upset.

Houston by 5

San Diego Legion @ Austin Elite Rugby

I want to be able to say Austin will win this one, if only because I like all teams being competitive in the league as long as possible. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening.

San Diego has shown top-tier talent. Even if they lose a chunk of players to the ARC, they should still have the talent to operate at a high level. As many of their key cogs, such as Joe Pietersen, Paddy Ryan, and Devin Short, won’t be leaving, they should fare just fine.

Austin needs to try something, anything, to improve their results. I don’t see it happening this week.

San Diego by 12

Glendale Raptors @ Utah Warriors

In a rematch of last year’s semifinal, the Glendale Raptors look to build a winning streak on the road in Utah. This is a harder choice than it may appear. Both teams have had impressive efforts in Austin. Both have lost every other match. Glendale will be losing their three biggest stars, in all likelihood, to the Eagles.

Still, if the best comparative measuring stick is the performance in Austin, Glendale clearly has the advantage. The Raptors dominated Austin, whereas Utah only handled them comfortably. Hopes that Utah’s pack might be a game changer seem diminished after last week’s loss in San Diego. This one will go the same way that last year’s semifinal went.

Glendale by 10

Rugby United New York @ Seattle Seawolves

RUNY comes off two resume-building wins on the bounce, one against San Diego and one against NOLA. If they can add a road win in Seattle to the CV, they’ll have earned some bragging rights.

A lot depends on which Seattle side shows up. Will it be the middling team that struggled to break out against San Diego and NOLA? Or will it be the rabid, intimidating defense that broke the Toronto Arrows’ back last week by facilitating a dramatic comeback? They’ll need the latter if they want to keep their home record spotless.

RUNY, even with two wins, remains something of a mystery. Just not a large enough sample size to understand how good they really are. But so far, the indications are encouraging. They’ve beaten the top two teams on the table, both on the road. With Seattle, they have a chance to make it the top three. Given the wins they’ve managed thus far, they’ve made a believer out of me.

New York by 6

TRS Staff Picks

You can find TRS contributor Paul Bains’ picks here.

Season Summary