Part 1 of this series showed a detailed comparison between the Quadgun and the Icarus lascannon. Part 3 will show the probability of a variety of popular weapons platforms to strip hull points or kill a variety of popular flyers.

In order to do compare the anti-tank platforms’ performance meant working out how good Necrons are at it, and this was such a large task that it’s worth of its own article before the results are plugged into the main table in the next one.

The Magic of Tesla

The Nightscythe’s Tesla Destructor is one of the most complicated weapons in 40K to work out the probability of destroying its target – factoring twin-linking is one thing, but we’re talking about a weapon that can shoot 4 shots and score 12 hits. And then one of the few things in 40K more complicated than that is the Annihilation Barge, which adds a second anti-tank capable weapon that also has the Tesla rule to allow it to generate more hits than shots.

You will get a look at both of them in detail in this article, again using Max Stunt’s vehicle damage calculator to speed up the calculations. The results of the firepower available on these two relatively inexpensive vehicles are so impressive I suspect that I may have spent more time on the maths than GW did, so feel free to forward the link to Matt Ward 🙂

Who needs this? I do, for a start. At a tournament this weekend, I gambled on going first against a Necron army with three Annihilation Barges, 18 Wraiths and 4 Nightscythes. I usually prefer to go second in order to allow my flyers to attack enemy flyers that have already arrived, but in this game I wanted to take out the barges, and as many of the fast moving wraiths as possible before they got into assault.

On turn two my three vendettas were on the table, and despite the fact I caused one Scythe to jink with a quadgun all three flyers were destroyed in a single turn by the four Nightscythes. That’s exactly the sort of scenario that sticks in one’s mind, and becomes the sort of anecdote that informs future decisions – “I’d be crazy to willingly have Vendettas arrive before Nightscythes again”.

So I need this in order to realise how low the odds of 4 Scythes taking out 3 Vendettas in a single turn are, especially because I still believe going first was the correct decision in this particular game. The opponent was so depleted by manticores, plasma, small-arms and the one good volley the Vendettas got off that only 4 wraiths made it into combat and I won the game with only 1 enemy warrior left on the table. We all tend to remember the dramatic outlier results like the first lascannon shot killing a Landraider better than the mundane averages.

Explanation of the tables below:

These tables show the probability (as a percentage) that the Nightscythe and will remove at least one hull point or kill an enemy flyer. The first thing is to work out the chances of the weapon will score X amount of hits – the hits being between 0 and 12. There is a 0.4% chance to score 1 hit, 3.3% of scoring 2, 13.3% of scoring 3 and so on.

The probability of landing no hits with a Tesla Destructor is never zero, but with a twinlinked 4 shot weapon is 0.02% so is displayed as zero. On the other hand there is genuinely zero percent chance of scoring 11 hits with a Tesla Destructor. You should be able to work out why.

After the probability of landing each amount of hits is calculated, the next calculation is the probability of the hits causing a damage result. The ‘Chance to Kill’ includes both the chance to remove all the target’s Hull points, and the chance for any of the individual hits to get a ‘Destroyed’ result.

Each of the four most common Flyers are represented; the AV10 flyer with 3 Hull Points (eg a Dakkajet), the AV11 with 2 HP (eg a Storm Talon), the AV11 flyer with 3 HP (eg a Nightscythe) and the AV12 Flyer with 3 HP (eg a Heldrake).

All results include the target getting a Jink save. That simplifies the results (although not the formula used to calculate them!), and means that the result for damage to a Heldrake is the same as the one for the Vendetta and Stormraven.

Number of hits Probabilty to land that number of hits AV10 AV11 AV12 Probability

to remove at least 1HP Probabilty to destroy 3HP flyer Probability to remove at least 1HP Probabilty to destroy 2HP flyer Probabilty to destroy 3HP flyer Probability to remove at least 1HP Probabilty to destroy 3HP flyer 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.4 44.44 5.56 33.33 3.7 3.7 22.22 1.85 2 3.3 69.14 11.08 55.56 17.57 7.4 39.51 3.7 3 13.3 82.85 23.84 70.37 33.86 14.36 52.95 6.59 4 21.9 90.47 40.11 80.25 49.04 24.16 63.4 10.78 5 13.2 94.71 55.92 86.83 61.84 35.41 71.54 16.16 6 26.6 97.06 69.15 91.22 72 46.76 77.86 22.44 7 4.4 98.37 79.24 94.15 79.78 57.3 82.78 29.27 8 13.2 99.09 86.46 96.1 85.57 66.53 86.61 36.32 9 0.5 99.5 91.39 97.4 89.91 74.26 89.58 43.34 10 2.9 99.72 94.64 98.27 92.87 80.53 91.9 50.1 11 0 99.84 96.72 98.84 95.04 85.48 93.7 56.46 12 0.2 99.91 98.02 99.23 96.57 89.3 95.1 62.33 Total 92.54 56.38 84.93 61.26 38.75 70.81 19.35

As you can see from the above, the most common result when firing a Tesla Destructor is 6 hits (26.6% of results), which would have a 91.22% chance to remove at least one Hullpoint from a jinking Nightscythe or 46.76% chance to kill it. The far more important numbers are the ones in orange in the total row, which show the probability of scoring damage based on a combination of each possible amount of hits.

A Nightscythe has a 61.26% chance to kill a Stormtalon, or 38.75% to kill another Nightscythe. That can be compared to 42.43% and 20.11% respectively for a Quadgun fired at BS4.

The Annihilation Barge

Next we come to the second piece in the puzzle of Necron’s dominance of the air. The Annihilation Barge is not a ‘proper’ AA unit, as it doesn’t have skyfire. However, it can move 12″ and snapfire, and like the Nightscythe it can score more hits than it has shots. Requiring the same number to score a snapfire hit as to trigger 2 extra ‘free’ tesla hits is a huge advantage to the twinlinked gun on this tank (if Tesla was triggered on a roll of 5 for example, the result would be a lot weaker vs air).

Unlike the Nightscythe, the Annihilation Barge has a secondary weapon (which also benefits from free tesla hits on the same dice as required to hit). The below table shows the AB using both its Tesla Destructor and its Tesla Cannon, with the combined probability of stripping hull points or scoring kills in the bottom line.

Number of hits Probabilty to land that number of hits AV10 AV11 AV12 Probability

to at least remove 1HP Probabilty to destroy 3HP flyer Probability to remove at least 1 HP Probabilty to destroy 2HP flyer Probabilty to destroy 3HP flyer Probability to remove at least 1 HP Probabilty to destroy 3HP flyer Annihilation Barge (Tesla Destructor S7 Assault 4 Tesla Arc) 0 23.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 40.9 82.85 23.84 70.37 33.86 14.36 52.95 6.59 6 27 97.06 69.15 91.22 72 46.76 77.86 22.44 9 7.9 99.5 91.39 97.4 89.91 74.26 89.58 43.34 12 0.9 99.91 98.02 99.23 96.57 89.3 95.1 62.33 Total: 68.83 36.5 61.98 41.24 25.15 50.59 12.72 Tesla Cannon (2 shot S6, Tesla) 0 69.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 27.8 70.37 14.36 52.95 17.39 6.59 29.77 0.14 6 2.8 91.22 46.76 77.86 46.29 22.44 50.67 2.12 Total: 22.07 5.28 16.86 6.11 2.45 9.67 0.1 Combined probability 75.71 39.86 68.39 44.83 26.98 55.37 12.81

As you can see, the Annihilation Barge may not be a dedicated AA platform, but even without skyfire each has a 39.86% chance to kill a Dakkajet or equivalent in one volley. It is a terrific AA weapon despite the fact this is not what it was designed for, and it’s considerably better against non-flying vehicles. It has a deceptively high rate of hits, and armour few weapons can touch until penetrated (which is challenging… because few weapons can touch it until penetrated).

Establishing a Base Line

In order to give these results some perspective, they need to be compared to similar weapons in the game. See the below table for how they compare to the dedicated anti-air weapons of the Hydra and the Quadgun (fired at BS4).

Target AV10 3HP To Remove at least 1 HP Chance to Destroy NightScythe 92.54 56.38 Annihilation

Barge 75.71 39.86 Quadgun 86.61 33.43 Hydra 80.25 25.76 AV11 2HP To Remove at least 1 HP Destroy NightScythe 84.83 61.26 Annihilation

Barge 68.39 44.83 Quadgun 75.48 42.43 Hydra 68.36 34.04 AV11 3HP To Remove at least 1 HP Destroy NightScythe 84.83 38.75 Annihilation

Barge 61.98 26.98 Quadgun 75.48 20.11 Hydra 68.36 15.57 AV12 3HP To Remove at least 1 HP Destroy NightScythe 70.81 19.35 Annihilation

Barge 55.37 12.81 Quadgun 58.33 9.03 Hydra 51.77 7.08

It’s also interesting to note some results like the Annihilation barge having a lower chance to remove hull points but a higher chance to destroy targets across all armour bands than a Quadgun. This is because while it averages less hits, it is more likely to cause a sufficiently large number of hits to remove all the hull points; a quadgun may be more reliable, but it’s never going to cause more than 4 hits.

As you can see from the above, the Nightscythe is a fantastic AA weapon, especially for a dedicated transport. Add in its resiliance to non-Skyfire weapons and its unique troop-deployment and safe-haven transport rules, and it’s easy to see why Necrons are dominating the air in games (and the leaderboards at many major tournaments).

However, the games are still won on the ground, and Necrons aren’t untouchable. Definitely overpowered (and I didn’t even factor additional extra hits ‘Arc’ rules into all this), but not ‘broken’ in the sense they break the game.

(On a side-note, the Hydra was originally the game’s only dedicated AA platform, but ironically one of the first things most Guard armies did after the so called ‘Flyer Edition’ was released was drop their Hydras. That’s a combination of the fact the Hydra was nerfed into obsolescence against ground based targets by being forced to snapfire against them and that it doesn’t have interceptor to prevent it from being destroyed by the one class of target it is good against before it gets to fire, but the numbers above show how uncompetitive this AV 12/10/10 tank that must remain still to fire at full effect would be even if an opponent generously allowed it to live to take its shot. )

And that’s what the maths of Tesla rules look like when transferred into 6th edition: it’s as scary as it is complicated. Next up will be comparison of a wide variety of weapons platforms used for anti-air, from broadsides to vendettas to soulgrinders to longfangs to lootas. If you have any specific units to suggest please add them in the comments below.

Back to my original anecdote, the chance of each Nightscythe killing a Vendetta was only 19.35%, so the odds for losing all 3 in a single turn to 4 Nightscythes (including one which jinked) were extremely low. It’s important to realise the difference between an experience like that and actual future probable outcomes. The amount of times 4 Scythes have killed just 1 vendetta are a lot less memorable, but if I wasn’t aware of that I’d over-compensate, go second vs Necrons next time, keep my flyers safe and probably lose the game.

I’d rather lose the models and win the match.