64-bit ciphers attack in 75 hours => AES-GCM attack in 75 hours?

There is a new attack/paper from the INRIA (Matthew Green has a good explanation on the attack) that continues the trend introduced by rc4nomore of long attacks. The paper is branded as "Sweet32" which is a collision attack playing on the birthday paradox (hence the cake in the logo) to break 64-bit ciphers like 3DES or Blowfish in TLS.

Rc4nomore was showing off with numbers like 52 hours to decrypt a cookie. This new attack needed more queries (\(2^{32}\), hence the 32 in the name) and so it took longer in practice: 75 hours. And if the numbers are correct, this should answer the question I raised in one of my blogpost a few weeks ago:

the nonce is the part that should be different for every different message you encrypt. Some increment it like a counter, some others generate them at random. This is interesting to us because the birthday paradox tells us that we'll have more than 50% chance of seeing a nonce repeat after \(2^{32}\) messages. Isn't that pretty low?

The number of queries here are the same for these 64-bit ciphers and AES-GCM. As the AES-GCM attack pointed:

we discovered over 70,000 HTTPS servers using random nonces

Does this means that 70,000 HTTPS servers are vulnerable to a 75 hours BEAST-style attack on AES-GCM?

Fortunately not, As the sweet32 paper points out, Not every server will allow a connection to be kept alive for that long. (It also seems like no browser place a limit on the amount of time a connection can be kept alive.) An interesting project would be to figure out how many of these 70,000 HTTPS servers are allowing long-lived connections.

It's good to note that these two attacks have different results as well. The sweet32 attack targets 64-bit ciphers like 3DES and Blowfish that really nobody use. The attack is completely impractical in that sense. Whereas AES-GCM is THE cipher commonly negociated. On the other hand, while both of them are Beast-style attacks, The sweet32 attack results in decrypting a cookie whereas the AES-GCM attack only allows you to redirect the user to a valid (but tampered) https page of the misbehaving website. In this sense the sweet32 attack has directly heavier consequences.

PS: Both Sean Devlin and Hanno Bock told me that the attacks are quite different in that the 64-bit one needs a collision on the IV or on a previous ciphertext. Whereas AES-GCM needs a collision on the nonce. This means that in the 64-bit case you can request for longer messages instead of querying for more messages, you also get more information with a minimum sized query than in a AES-GCM attack. This should make the AES-GCM even less practical, especially in the case of re-keying happening around the birthday bound.