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The regression would predict that after a season in which Toronto’s winning percentage was .469, we might expect an April mean attendance around 26,000. After only seven home dates, including the usual sellout on opening day, the Jays’ mean attendance is 28,556. We can expect that number to fall as the influence of opening day and the well-attended weekend Yankees series lessens as more home games are played this month.

Let’s look at the data another way. Let’s scale the previous season’s winning percentage and the April mean attendance to fall in the same range, with 100 as the midpoint. (It’s similar to how statistics such as OPS+ are calculated, where 100 is league average; the plus indicates the statistic has been scaled. In our case, winning percentage is scaled with a .500 record and with 32,500 fans represented at 100.)

Scaling the numbers allows us to plot the rises and falls on the same chart without altering the shape of the data.

There appears to be a good relationship between the previous season’s record and April attendance. The lines rise and fall in tandem, with three exceptions. The two variables moved in opposite directions in in the late 1990s and in 2005. And in 2013 attendance spiked despite a losing record the season before. This coincides with the major off-season trades that brought R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson and Jose Reyes to the club.

Winning percentage from the previous season doesn’t explain every bit of variance in April attendance. And anger and frustration with the current management regime’s handling of club matters could explain why some people will stay away this year. The team’s four wins in the first seven games, erasing some lingering trepidation because of last season’s awful start, could also buoy attendance when the team returns from this nine-game road trip. Human behaviour is filled with variables. But cast a skeptical eye toward anyone who wants to say something other than wins and losses is the biggest variable in the behaviour of Blue Jays fans.

Correction: Data sources credit should include Retrosheet.org game logs for attendance figures.Are you a Blue Jays fan who uses Facebook? Join our new discussion group to have your say on the team all season long.