Course Preview

The Farmers Open takes place at my personal favorite courses- Torrey Pines North and South. On the first 2 days, people will be split between both courses, then the last 2 days both take place on the South course. The South Course is the longest course on tour at 7,6oo yards while the North Course is 6,900 yards in contrast. Both are par 72s with generous fairways and large, easy greens. There are some challenges on the North Course, for example hole #3 is a par 3 that has a green 70 yards below the tee box and only has a small patch of rough before an out of bounds area. Hole #18 is a unique par 5 with a pond right before the green. The South Course is much easier so expect the players playing here on day 1 to jump out to a lead. Winning scores at this tournament tend to be on the lower side- the last 2 years the winning scores were 9 under par- so scores will be lower this week than weeks past.

Statistical Breakdown

Farmers Stat Breakdown

This is what’s known as a ‘bombers course’ for obvious reasons. As you can see in the statistical breakdown sheet, most of the winners here in past years have been players with high Driving Distance. This makes sense given that it’s the longest course on tour. Accuracy can be helpful but the fairways are wide and plenty of people who can drive long with little accuracy have placed high here before. Scrambling is important for those who do miss the fairway or green. A key approach range that sticks out in the sheet is Approaches 125-150 Yards. We’re coming off of a few courses where accuracy and short game have dominated, so sticking to guys long off the tee- even if they’ve been missing the cut in recent weeks- will hopefully set you apart from the field who may just be going off of performances in past weeks.

High End Plays

Jason Day $12,000

$12,000 isn’t bad for an elite player who won last year and came in 2nd the year before. Day’s always been excellent off the tee and he showed he’s shaken off any rust he may have had with a top 10 at the Hyundai.

Dustin Johnson $11,100

Nobody hits the ball farther than DJ. This should be reason enough but he’s placed top 15 in 3 events so far this season, so he’s clearly in form. If you’re looking at his course history and worrying about his poor finishes the last 2 years remember that he was coming off of his extended cocaine-induced leave of absence and is way past all that stuff. Start him with confidence.

Brandt Snedeker $10,700

Not long off the tee but he’s a former winner with 5 top 10 finishes in 9 tries here. He’s also coming off of back to back top 3s so he’s clearly past his injury that bothered him towards the end of last season.

Hideki Matsuyama $10,300

Hideki is a statistical monster who led the tour in total driving last year. He’s a rare player who’s long and accurate. Most of the par 4s on this course are on the longer end and Matsuyama led the tour in scoring last year on par 4s 450-500 yards. He also ranks highly in the key range of 125-150 yards. On top of all of this, he already has 3 top 20s this season.

Jimmy Walker $10,100

As far as the Vegas odds go, he’s the favorite when comparing betting odds to DK pricing. Walker is off to his usual hot start to the season and has 3 top 10s here in the last 4 years. The course suits his game well as he’s a phenomenal putter who’s long off the tee.

Bill Haas $9,900

Haas hasn’t missed a cut here since 2006 and has 7 top-20 finishes in 10 starts. He’s been off to a hot start this season as well with 3 straight top 20s. Things are lining up for another top 20 here.

Charles Howell III $9,300

I expect CH3 to be the most owned player in both cash and gpp for obvious reasons. 1. Current form- 7/7 cuts, 6 top 20 finishes. 2. Course history- Never finishing lower than 43rd in 10 straight years here and 5 top 10 finishes. He’s mandatory for all cash games.

J.B. Holmes $9,300

Holmes finished T2 here last year and has always been a bomber. I like him as a GPP pick because Howell is the same price and all the ownership is going to gravitate his way, making Holmes lower owned than he should be.

Mid-range Plays

Gary Woodland $8,700

If you look at Driving Distance this year you’re gonna see his name at the top with a monster 323.3 yard average. He ranked 12th last year too so he’s a certified bomber. Woodland is 3/3 in cuts this year and 6/6 in cuts at this event with a T10 in 2014.

Jamie Lovemark $8,300

Lovemark is another guy I expect to be highly owned this week, He’s coming off his third straight top 10 finish and has looked incredible. His game revolves around his incredible driving, in fact he led the web.com tour last year- by a good margin- in Total Driving. (Driving Distance combined with Driving Accuracy) If you don’t have some exposure to Lovemark the field may burn you, but he could also be a ballsy fade in gpp if you want to be contrarian.

Daniel Berger $8,200

Berger is coming off a very strong ROTY season and looks to keep it going at a tournament he did pretty well at last year. Berger excels at long par 4s, par 3s over 200 yards, and approaches 125-150 yards which is going to be key here.

Brendan Steele $7,800

Under priced for his skill level and fits the mold at this course with his long driver. Play him in gpp only as he’s usually either posting very low scores or missing the cut completely.

Nick Watney $7,600

Exceptional course history with 6 top 10s in 9 years. Gpp only as he tends to have blowup rounds, but use him liberally as people who just started playing in the last few weeks are going to pick Kim at this price.

Patrick Rodgers $7,600

Rodgers can crush the ball a mile and is perfect in cuts through 5 events. His ownership could be lower than it should be given the picks at this price like Watney and Kim.

Si Woo Kim $7,600

“Asian Jordan Speith” stayed on a tear last week with his 4th straight top 20 and 2nd straight top 10 finish. This course may not suit his game as much as the last few have but he’s still cheap.

Tony Finau $7,500

Finau is putting himself out there as the next monster driver on tour as so far he’s averaged a whopping 320.1 yards off the tee. He’s a par 5 assassin and these fairways can forgive his crappy Driving Accuracy. Good finish here last year too.

Matt Jones $7,400

Jones took a huge salary cut despite this course being much better for his game. He drives the ball long and he’s another player who ranks high in Approaches 125-150 yards.

Lucas Glover $7,400

Glover stayed hot with another good performance last week, and his tee-to-green skills should help him out at Torrey Pines where he’s posted 3 top 10 finishes in years past.

Keegan Bradley $7,300

Keegan is way under priced for his talent level and he’s another guy who’s very long off the tee. The former PGA Championship winner is a great pick in gpp with everybody most likely gravitating to Kaufman at this price.

Smylie Kaufman $7,300

He hasn’t missed a cut in 7 events and posted yet another high finish last week after a fantastic showing on Sunday. He’s fairly long, hitting the ball 299.9 yards off the tee. The rookie has already showed he has 1st place upside, but expect him to be highly owned by the public.

Scott Stallings $7,200

Stallings’ ownership will be a telltale sign of how often the public looks at course history. In general he’s a no-namer but here at Torrey he’s tangoed with Jason Day the last 2 years, coming 2nd last year and winning the year before. He’s had a few high finishes this year between several missed cuts, but go ahead and load up on him in gpp.

Patton Kizzire $7,100

There’s so much value in this range it’s making this section long as hell! In my Efficiency Scoring Projections (posted below) he’s projected to win the tournament. I think it’s because so far this season he’s excelled in all of the key hole distances that will be featured on these courses. He’s a great long par 4 and par 5 player which is going to be beneficial this week.

Value Plays

Andrew Loupe $6,900

Loupe has been an interesting figure this season, posting 3 top 10 finishes and 3 missed cuts. That screams gpp to me. He’s long off the tee and is very good at par 5s so it’s time to roster him while he’s still cheap.

Morgan Hoffmann $6,900

Hoffmann has looked alright so far this season and finally gets a course where he’s free to bomb it deep. Vegas is feeling him too.

K.J. Choi $6,800

Choi’s dink and dunk style seems like it wouldn’t work here but he’s made his last 5 cuts with a 2nd, 9th, and 15th along the way. Odds makers are liking him too so why not use him for some salary relief, maybe a cash play.

Aaron Baddeley $6,700

Baddeley has actually been looking alright this season, making 4/5 cuts with a T4 at Sanderson Farms. He’s always been great with his long drive and Tour-leading putting, he just has no Driving Accuracy to speak of. A forgiving course like this seems suited for him, and he’s actually had a few good finishes here including a T6 in ’13.

Chez Reavie $6,700

Reavie is now 6/6 in cuts made and fresh off an impressive T17 last week. He’s a shorter player so this may be the end of his streak but at his price he’s a strong consideration for a punt.

Jason Gore $6,500

6/6 cuts, just like Reavie. T17 last week, just like Reavie. There are 3 major differences between the two. 1. Gore is longer off the tee. 2. He costs $200 less. 3. Gore’s course history here is really bad. You could make the case that he’s only played once here in 4 years and he’s a better player now but just consider the fact before you roster him too much. Still not bad at all for someone almost minimum priced.

Mark Hubbard $6,500

Hubbard has Gore and Reavie one-upped with 7 straight cuts made. He doesn’t have much upside honestly and just makes cuts but he’s perfect for a cash game. He started the season off in the exact same fashion last year too.

Ollie Schneiderjans $6,500

Ollie’s odds stick out like a sore thumb compared to everyone else in this range. Everyone should be off of him after his tragically bad performance last week but maybe he can turn it around this week and get back to his birdie making ways.

Ryan Ruffels $6,500

Ruffels has only played in one PGA Tour event in his life so there’s very little to go off of here but he could be a very sneaky play because in that one event his driving distance was measured at 323.3 yards, which would tie Gary Woodland at the very top this year. He’s going to be less than 1% owned so consider a small sprinkle of him at the bottom of your gpp lineups.

Carlos Ortiz $6,400

Ortiz looked so good at the end of last year but now he’s on a 3 tournament missed cut skid. We know he’s an excellent driver so maybe this is a course he can turn it around on.

Tools

FarmersOpenCheatSheet

Farmers Stat Breakdown

Farmers Efficiency Sheet

The efficiency sheet is a new tool that I utilized last year to project player performances by taking hole distances and combining them with a players’ average score on holes of that distance. This accounts for 3 rounds at the South Course and 1 on the North. Since the data this season is still small I had to combine 2015 and 2016 data and as a result, the new 2016 players seem to be overvalued a bit- most notably Kizzire. As the season progresses this data should normalize and become more and more helpful.

Good luck this week guys, you can always hit me up with questions in the Slack group #pga-talk