Election 2016: 5 things we've learned from where the leaders have been

Updated

We've followed Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten around Australia for eight weeks. Here's an update on what their movements reveal about strategy.

To win the election on Saturday July 2, Labor needs to seize an extra 21 seats, but the Coalition only needs to lose 15 before the nation returns to a hung Parliament.

Much of the internal party polling suggests the Coalition will retain power but surrender some of its majority to Labor.

Figuring out where the major party leaders have been travelling shows exactly what their game plans have been through this marathon campaign — and each party's favourite seats.

1. Both major parties are giving the same areas attention

This is a national campaign but if you thought your local shopping centre was missing out on awkward baby hugging and latte sipping by the big players — you might be right.

These heatmaps show Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop's campaign travels, and Bill Shorten and Tanya Plibersek's electoral targets throughout the eight-week campaign.

It clearly shows Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne as popular destinations.

North Queensland, Adelaide and Perth have also received plenty of attention — but if you live in regional Australia, away from the coast, you have largely been ignored (although notably the Nationals leader's "wombat trail" is not captured here).

2. The key battles are in NSW and Queensland

We hear much about how western Sydney and Queensland are key battlegrounds in any election — much of that is simply because there are a greater number of seats in those regions, and many are on slim margins.

For many elections, there has been the adage that "if the swing is on in Queensland, it's on".

This campaign has been no different.

The ALP is targeting nine seats in Queensland stretching from the far north of the state to suburban Brisbane.

Hence why both leaders and their deputies have spent significant time campaigning in Queensland.

The feeling among party operatives is the Coalition has been able to sandbag some of those seats, but will surrender a few to the ALP.

Sydney's population means there are more seats in play, but so far all eyes are on marginal seats in the west and south-west of the city. Redistribution has been kind to the ALP, with some seats now notionally Labor anyway.

Both parties have made appearances in Adelaide, where there is significant concern about popular SA Senator Nick Xenophon.

While his team of candidates is likely to have more of an impact in the Senate, at the very least they will erode support for the major parties in the lower house — if not snag a seat or two.

3. Labor is spending more time in enemy territory

Labor's campaign has been more aggressive, spending considerably more time in Coalition-held electorates.

Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop have sought out more friendly audiences, shoring up support in Coalition-held seats.

There is a simple reason for this — the Coalition has to hang on to its majority, while Labor has to steal seats to have any chance of forming government.

4. Both parties are hitting the marginals

Both sides of the fight are mainly targeting marginal seats, or seats considered "fairly safe" — that is, seats with a margin of just over the 6 per cent threshold to be considered marginal.

Again, these are in the key regions where the parties are hoping to either make gains or back in their vulnerable candidates.

Macarthur and Lindsay in Sydney's west are marginal Liberal seats, and have been visited regularly by both Mr Turnbull and Mr Shorten.

Liberal deputy Julie Bishop has been acting as an advance campaigner for Mr Turnbull, arriving in key Adelaide electorates just days before her leader touched down.

She has also been sent in days after Mr Turnbull has swept through, seeking to capitalise on his efforts in key Victorian seats such as Dunkley, which covers parts of south-east Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula.

Labor deputy Tanya Plibersek has spent a significant amount of time in Queensland just days after her leader jetted out of town, strengthening the attack on LNP-held seats such as Herbert and Capricornia, centred around Townsville and Rockhampton.

5. Both parties have the same favourite seats

Unfortunately for most of the country, only about a third of the 150 House of Representatives electorates will actually decide the outcome on Saturday.

Both Mr Turnbull and Mr Shorten have only visited around 50 electorates each.

Of the 20 most-visited seats by the leadership teams, only one is held by Labor.

When it comes to picking out the most sought-after seats for the Coalition and Labor, western Sydney and Queensland are where the battle began and where it ends.

All of the top five most-visited seats are marginal or fairly safe Coalition seats.

Labor has made five visits each to the Sydney seats of Barton and Lindsay, as well as the north Queensland seats of Herbert and Leichhardt.

A favourable redistribution means Labor is likely to snatch Barton — but the Coalition is feeling more comfortable it can fend off the Opposition's other attacks.

The Coalition is sandbagging Macarthur in Sydney's south-west, with the Liberal leadership team visiting that electorate six times throughout the campaign.

Topics: federal-elections, federal-government, federal-parliament, federal-election, australia

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