President Barack Obama fell just short of 25 percent of the vote in Utah in the 2012 presidential election, but Donald Trump can’t take the Beehive State for granted this November.

A June 2-8 poll by SurveyUSA for The Salt Lake Tribune showed Trump and Clinton tied at 35 percent, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 13 percent. It’s wise to avoid drastic conclusions based on a single poll (and an automated one at that), but there are other reasons for Trump to be concerned.

Trump starts from a weak position after receiving just 14 percent of the vote in the state’s March 22 Republican presidential caucus (Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won with 69 percent) and there appears to be a fundamental disconnect between the Manhattan real estate mogul and Mormon voters, as explained by Buzzfeed’s McKay Coppins in a June 13 New York Times piece, “Donald Trump’s Mormon Problem. ”

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Roll Call’s 2016 Election Guide



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But even though Mormon voters (who make up approximately 60 percent of the electorate) aren’t embracing Trump, Democrats need Johnson, a former GOP governor of New Mexico, to do well and lower the threshold necessary for a Clinton victory. Adam Wollner wrote about the dynamic in his recent piece, “Trump Faces Headwinds in Utah ,” for the National Journal.