The special election for Montana’s at-large House seat hasn’t received as much as attention as the race in Georgia, but it’s a similar storyline: Democrats are doing better than expected and an upset is within the realm of possibility.

Less than a week before the Thursday, May 25, election, wealthy former software executive Greg Gianforte has a narrow advantage over his Democratic opponent, musician Rob Quist. But Quist recently crossed the $5 million fundraising threshold, giving him ample resources to deliver his message in the final days in a relatively cheap state for advertising.

Strategists on both sides of the aisle agree that Gianforte won’t come close to President Donald Trump’s 20-point victory last fall. But there is some disagreement on exactly how far ahead Gianforte is at this point.

[The Big Story: Special Elections in the Time of Trump]

There isn’t enough evidence that the candidates are neck-and-neck to justify a Tossup rating, but there is enough uncertainty with special election turnout, and with previous special election races as a backdrop, for us to change our Inside Elections rating of the Montana race from Likely Republican to Tilts Republican.