That is diplomatic-speak for indicating the choice the UK government refuses to acknowledge it has to make. That choice is between doing a deal with the EU or being free to negotiate trade deals with other countries without being bound by EU rules and tariffs.

Unless the UK breaks out of that straitjacket, there will be little interest from other countries, including Australia, in pursuing such agreements. What would be the point?

Backing off

But with Theresa May struggling for her political life, no foreign governments are willing to point out the obvious.

Even Donald Trump, having so embarrassed the British Prime Minister by condemning her EU proposals as "killing" any prospect of a US-UK trade deal, is now backing off in his rhetoric.

With Theresa May struggling for her political life, no foreign governments are willing to point out the obvious. JASPER JUINEN

In what is now a familiar pattern after meeting face-to-face with another leader, Trump has subsequently tried to sound far more positive about at least the possibility of a deal.

According to the US President's latest version of a shifting political reality, the British PM has told him the UK will still have the flexibility to negotiate a free trade deal on its own terms because it will be able to have a "carve out" in whatever Brexit arrangements are concluded.


So no problem!

"I think we're going to have a great trade deal, I've really no doubt about it," he declared in a TV interview after his UK visit.

Even Donald Trump, having so embarrassed the British Prime Minister by condemning her EU proposals as "killing" any prospect of a US-UK trade deal, is now backing off in his rhetoric. PABLO MARTINEZ MONSIVAIS

"We're going to get it. I said [to May] 'Make sure you have a carve out, you have to have a carve out' – where no matter what happens they have the right to make a deal with the United States."

The catch is that there's almost zero chance the EU would tolerate any such carve out – as the Australian government quietly appreciates.

It's clear there's a very big gap between the ambitions of Australia and the UK and of the pragmatism that will define any negotiations for the Australian government after the Brexit deadline of next March.

Unpalatable truth

But in UK politics, only ex-ministers like Boris Johnson can afford to acknowledge this. In his resignation speech to the House, the former foreign minister described May's version of Brexit as "a democratic disaster of 'ongoing harmonisation' with no way out and no say for the UK".


Trade Minister Steve Ciobo merely said "when Britain is ready, Australia is keen". Nick Miller

"And the result of accepting the EU's rule books, and of our proposal of a fantastical Heath Robinson customs arrangement, is that we have much less scope to do free trade deals," he said.

This unpalatable truth, however, runs counter to the Conservative government's promise of a country that can get the best of both trade worlds. It is sticking to that promise no matter the unmistakeable signals from an intransigent EU leadership it will not tolerate this.

The political turmoil in the UK is also so extreme that no one can really say what the negotiations with the EU will produce anyway. Despite May's optimism about a "soft" Brexit that allows some form of customs union in return for continuing to accept most EU rules on the trade of goods, it is increasingly possible the attempt at compromise will end up in a "hard" Brexit by default come March 29. The (admittedly confused) predictions by a lot of UK political "experts" is that no deal at all has become a 50-50 proposition.

That would be because it proves too hard to get a "soft" deal with the EU that is acceptable to a majority of the Conservative Party because it reneges on the commitment to "take back control" of Britain's laws and regulations.

Ironically, it would be just that failure that would provide the most likely route for a free trade deal between the UK and Australia as well as other countries.

That's despite the fact Australia is simultaneously attempting to negotiate a "free trade" deal itself with the EU. The key to this apparent contradiction is that trade with the tightly protectionist EU has been so restricted that almost any improvement would be an advance for Australian exporters.

Last year, for example, Australian agricultural exports to the EU, a market of 500 million people, were worth only $3.6 billion while Australia's imports of agricultural products from the EU were worth more – $4.9 billion – despite a population of less than 25 million.

Even if neither the UK nor Australia can yet admit it, the alternative of a much superior deal with the UK post-Brexit would have to be under very different terms to add up in Canberra. At the moment, that's a very big question mark.

Jennifer Hewett is in London as a guest of the Australia UK Leadership Forum