Well, at least we know. David Frost, the UK's de facto chief Brexit negotiator, made a very important speech in Brussels that stated, in terms, that the UK wants – actually desires – a no-deal Brexit. In contrast to his political masters, he could not have been clearer. In a thoughtful and rather candid speech he stated:

“In an age of huge change, being able to anticipate to adapt, and to encourage really counts. Brexit is about a medium-term belief in that reality that this is true – that even if there is a short-run cost, it will be overwhelmed rapidly by the huge gains of having your own policy regimes in certain areas.”

Note well that he admitted, maybe as far as he could go, that there would indeed be a “short-run cost” to Brexit. Unspecified, and minimised, but there is the magical word – “cost”. We have come a long way since Brexit wasn’t “done” last autumn.

Not so very long ago, a hard Brexit, the so-called “cliff-edge” version, the “no deal” scenario by which the UK would leave the EU with no agreement on future trade or security relations, was regarded with a certain degree of horror, even by many Brexiteers. During the Brexit referendum campaign, it was regarded, except by a few of the bad boys of Brexit, as an almost laughable proposition, part of “project fear”. They pointed to Switzerland, Norway and other countries that enjoyed close economic and trading ties with the EU, but were not required to be members. A new trade deal was supposed to be the easiest thing in history to achieve. We “held all the cards”, if you recall.

Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Show all 66 1 /66 Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A message projected onto the White Cliffs of Dover Sky News/AFP via Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 31: Pro Brexit supporters attend the Brexit Day Celebration Party hosted by Leave Means Leave at Parliament Square on January 31, 2020 in London, England. At 11.00pm on Friday 31st January the UK and Northern Ireland exits the European Union, 188 weeks after the referendum on June 23rd, 2016. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) Jeff J Mitchell Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Big Ben, shows the hands at eleven o'clock at night AFP via Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Nigel Farage speaks to pro-Brexit supporters PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-Brexit demonstrators celebrate on Parliament Square REUTERS Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU The Union flag is taken down outside the European Parliament in Brussels PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A pro-Brexit supporter jumps on an EU flag in Parliament Square PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU EU Council staff removed the Union Jack-British flag from the European Council in Brussels, Belgium EPA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A pro-Brexit supporter pours beer onto an EU flag PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pedestrians pass in front of the Ministry of Defence Building on Whitehall, illuminated by red, white and blue lights in central London AFP via Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A Brexit supporter shouts during a rally in London AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-EU campaigners take part in a 'Missing EU Already' rally outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A large pro-EU banner is projected onto Ramsgate cliff in Kent PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-EU supporters light candles in Smith Square in Westminster PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A man waves Union flags from a small car as he drives past Brexit supporters gathering in Parliament Square AFP via Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU The five-year old Elisa Saemann, left, and her seven-year old sister Katie hold a placard during a rally by anti-Brexit protesters outside the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro Europe supporters gather on Brexit day near the British embassy in Berlin, Germany EPA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Anti-Brexit protester hugs a man while holding a placard REUTERS Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A decorated, old fashioned fire pump in Parliament Square PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro Brexit Elvis impersonator performs at Parliament Square Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU An anti-Brexiteers stands with his dog in Parliament Square AFP via Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Paddy from Bournemouth wears Union colours as he sits next to an EU flag decorated bag in Parliament Square AFP via Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A pro-EU activist plays a guitar decorated with the EU flag during a protest organised by civil rights group New Europeans outside Europe House, central London AFP via Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU People celebrate Britain leaving the EU REUTERS Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A Pro Brexit supporter has a Union Jack painted onto his face at Parliament Square Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Men hold placards celebrating Britain leaving the EU REUTERS Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro Brexit supporters dance in the street draped with Union Jack flags at Parliament Square Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU An anti-Brexit demonstrator spreads his wings during a gathering near Downing Street AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro EU supporters display a banner ' Here to Stay, Here to Fight, Migrants In, Tories Out' from Westminster bridge EPA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-Brexit supporters burn European Union flags at Parliament Square Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A man poses for a picture on Parliament Square in a 'Brexit Day' t-shirt Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU People celebrate Britain leaving the EU Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A pro-EU anti-Brexit protester holds up a placard showing Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson and US businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri in Parliament Square in central London on January 31, 2020 on the day that the UK formally leaves the European Union. - Britain on January 31 ends almost half a century of integration with its closest neighbours and leaves the European Union, starting a new -- but still uncertain -- chapter in its long history. (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP) (Photo by GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images) GLYN KIRK AFP via Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A man wears a pro-Brexit t-shirt Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Anti-Brexit demonstrators visit Europe House to give flowers to the staff on Brexit day Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro Brexit supporter wears a novelty Union Jack top hat outside the Houses of Parliament Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Customers Scott Jones and Laura Jones at the Sawmill Bar in South Elmsall, Yorkshire, where a Brexit party is being held throughout the day PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A pro-Brexit demonstrator clenches his fist during a rally in London, Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. Britain officially leaves the European Union on Friday after a debilitating political period that has bitterly divided the nation since the 2016 Brexit referendum. (AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali) Alberto Pezzali AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 31: Pro-EU activists protest at Parliament Square as people prepare for Brexit on January 31, 2020 in London, United Kingdom. At 11.00pm on Friday 31st January the UK and Northern Ireland will exit the European Union 188 weeks after the referendum on June 23rd 2016. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) Jeff J Mitchell Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 31: Pro Brexit supporters hold up placards at Parliament Square as people prepare for Brexit on January 31, 2020 in London, United Kingdom. At 11.00pm on Friday 31st January the UK and Northern Ireland will exit the European Union 188 weeks after the referendum on June 23rd 2016. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) Jeff J Mitchell Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-EU activists protest Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A pro-Brexit demonstrator burns a European Union flag AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro Brexit supporters Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro Brexit supporters Getty Images Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A Brexit supports holds a sign in Parliament Square AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A man carries an EU themed wreath Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Ann Widdecombe reacts with other members of the Brexit party as they leave en masse from the European Parliament PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Anti-Brexit demonstrators in Parliament Square PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro EU supporters let off flares from Westminster Bridge Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU British MEPs Jonathan Bullock, holding the Union Jack flag and Jake Pugh leave the European Parliament, in Brussels on the Brexit day AFP via Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Newspapers and other souvenirs at a store, near Parliament Square Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Brexit supporters hold signs in Parliament Square AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square AFP via Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU French newspapers PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald with a Border Communities Against Brexit poster before its unveiling in Carrickcarnon on the Irish border PA Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU National growers organisation British Apples & Pears has renamed a British apple to EOS, the Greek goddess of dawn, to commemorate Brexit day AP Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square AFP via Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Britain's departure from the European Union was set in law on January 29, amid emotional scenes, as the bloc's parliament voted to ratify the divorce papers. After half a century of membership and three years of tense withdrawal talks, the UK will leave the EU at midnight Brussels time (23.00 GMT) on January 31 Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A man poses with paintings on Parliament Square Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU People sporting Union Flags gather in Parliament Square Getty Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A man walks with a St. George's flag at Westminster bridge on Brexit day Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU A British bulldog toy and other souvenirs at a souvenir store Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU British pro-brexit Members of the European Parliament leave the EU Parliament for the last time Reuters Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU Jonathan Bullock waves the Union Jack as he leaves the European Parliament EPA

Last year it had moved a bit. There was a more sceptical tone about. Punted around by the various Tory leadership candidates – but only as a negotiating tactic – was the idea that the way to get a deal is to threaten “no deal”, and not rule it out, as Theresa May had, supposedly, foolishly done. We heard time and again, that in a negotiation about buying a house or a car or an electric kettle off eBay, you have to be prepared to walk away from a deal to get the best price.

Now we know better. No deal is pretty much the expected aim of HM government, the kind of Brexit, it could be fairly argued, that few wanted or expected back in 2016. There probably never was such a thing as a soft Brexit, because being a rule-taker, not a rule-maker, is pointless, and the only option left is to go your own way. It is not a negotiating tactic at all. Here is Mr Frost again:

“To think that we might accept EU supervision on so-called level playing field issues simply fails to see the point of what we are doing. That isn’t a simple negotiating position which might move under pressure – it is the point of the whole project. That’s also why we are not going to extend the transition period beyond the end of this year. At the end of this year, we would recover our political and economic independence in full – why would we want to postpone it? That is the point of Brexit.”

Well, it seems as though we’re walking away from the deal before the talks have even started with the EU. That should at least save some time. We may as well bring the deadline for the end of trade talks forward to tomorrow morning.

The British, or rather Frost, argue that they should be given the same sort of treatment that the Canadians were in their recent trade deal with the EU, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, or CETA. Although there are some mutual obligations, there is nothing in the CETA remotely like the kind of “level playing field” demands the EU is demanding of the UK. Boris Johnson says it is not fair for Europe to treat Britain in a different manner. They are right; but trade talks, like all politics, are not necessarily about fairness, whatever that is. It is about the pursuit of national, or in this case, supranational interest. And, as ever, the UK has more to lose in these talks than the EU has. The EU is much the bigger entity – in population and economic strength – and the bigger participant in trade talks usually ends up with the best of any deal.

Moreover, the UK has already given up some of the strongest cards it had in the trade talks – the “divorce” settlement of about £39bn, the status of EU citizens in the UK and the Irish border question. Once upon a time, David Davis, as Brexit secretary reassured us that nothing woud be agreed until everything had been agreed – divorce agreement plus new trade and security deal. It didn’t work out like that.

All that said, the UK does still have some cards to play. There are pockets of the European economy that rely greatly on the UK – some of the car factories, the fishing ports, the tourist destinations. Some would certainly lose their livelihoods in the event of a no-deal Brexit, just as some British communities would. Brexit is going to be lose-lose whatever happens; yet there is some hope that the domestic political pressure in parts of Western Europe especially will push the politicians in the EU to soften their demands about the “level playing field”.