by Aaron Schatz

There's no change at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week. New England is still at No. 1 and Dallas is still at No. 2. Just like a week ago, the teams are higher in weighted DVOA than in full-season DVOA, and the gap between them is larger in weighted DVOA. The difference this week is that while the Patriots and Cowboys are still the lowest-rated teams to ever be ranked 1-2 in DVOA this late in the season, they did climb back above 20%. Dallas moves up despite its second loss because it still had a positive DVOA for that game (covered here in Any Given Sunday) and changes in opponent adjustments for past games boosted their overall rating a bit.

It's worth noting that even if we remove the two games started by third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett from New England's DVOA, the Patriots would still be the lowest-rated No. 1 team in DVOA history. Without the offense in those games, the Patriots would be at 25.7% DVOA; the next-lowest No. 1 team after Week 14 was the undefeated 2011 Green Bay Packers at 28.2%.

As for this year's Packers, they moved way up in DVOA with their blowout win over Seattle, going from 12th to seventh. Seattle's drop was even larger, as they fell from third to 10th. (In weighted DVOA, Green Bay is one place higher and Seattle one place lower.) Seattle put up a horrible -77.6% DVOA in the loss to Green Bay, which basically assures that the four-year Seahawks DVOA dynasty will not continue with a fifth-straight No. 1 finish.

As you can imagine, Seattle hasn't had a loss like this in quite some time. The Seahawks have certainly had some bad losses this year. In fact, this was Seattle's third game this year with DVOA under -40%. Seattle's Week 2 loss to Los Angeles is currently at exactly -40.0%, subject to change as opponent adjustments change in the final three weeks. The loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago is at -48.6%.

Suffice to say, the Seahawks did not have a lot of games with DVOA below -40% during their four-year DVOA dynasty. In fact, they had zero. Before this season, the last Seahawks game with a -40% DVOA came all the way back in Week 2 of the 2011 season, when they had -70% DVOA in a 24-0 loss at Pittsburgh. Sunday's blowout loss to Green Bay is the worst Seattle game by DVOA since a 38-15 loss in Tampa Bay late in Pete Carroll's first season as the head coach, which had -98% DVOA. The Seahawks haven't lost this badly since Matt Hasselbeck was still their starting quarterback.

Most teams, even good teams, will put up at least one -40% DVOA game each season, or at least a game close to that. However, there are two teams this year that haven't even put up a single game below -20%. You can probably guess that Dallas is one of those teams. The other one is a bit of a surprise. The New York Giants have been shockingly consistent all season. This week's win over Dallas is their best game of the year at 30.7% DVOA, and the Week 4 loss to the Vikings is currently their worst game at -15.5% DVOA. Ten of the Giants' 13 games have fallen in a narrow band between -5% and +15%.

I've been calling this the Year of No Great Teams for a few weeks now, but we are seeing a couple of historic performances on the defensive side of the ball. The problem is that these historic performances are only against the run or the pass, not both. By sheer coincidence, the New England Patriots have to play both of these defenses in consecutive weeks.

The Patriots did manage to run on Baltimore last night, moving Baltimore's run defense DVOA from -39.7% to -34.8%. That's still the best in the NFL for this season by a significant margin, but it is no longer on pace to pass the 2000 Ravens as the best run defense in DVOA history. Right now, Baltimore would rank third, behind the 2000 Ravens and the 1991 Eagles. The Ravens also saw their overall defensive DVOA rise from -18.4% to -15.5%, putting more distance between them and the No. 1 Denver Broncos.

We wrote in Football Outsiders Almanac 2016 and numerous times before the season that while Denver was probably still going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL, it was very unlikely that this year's Denver defense would be able to play at the same historic level as last year's defense. It turns out that was only half right. The Denver pass defense is actually better than it was last season. Last year, the Broncos had -28.0% DVOA against the pass. Through 13 games, this year's Broncos are at -32.3%. That's not going to challenge the 2002 Buccaneers as the best pass defense in DVOA history, but it is on pace to finish in the top ten. The "defense vs. types of receivers" numbers make a spectacular statement about Denver's cornerbacks, as the Broncos rank first against No. 1 wideouts, first against No. 2 wideouts, and third against other wideouts.

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What's keeping the Broncos defense from a second year of historic greatness overall is an inability to stop the run. The Broncos are 25th in the league against the run right now. As you may know, team DVOA numbers include all plays. Since passing is generally more efficient than rushing, most teams will have a lower (better) DVOA against the run than against the pass. Not Denver. Every other team in the NFL right now has a lower (better) DVOA against the run than against the pass. But Denver's defensive DVOA is over 31 points lower against the pass than against the run. All the usual guidelines about run/pass ratios should be completely switched when playing the Broncos this season. Then again, the Patriots went against the grain by running LeGarrette Blount down Baltimore's throat. Perhaps Bill Belichick will decide the best way to beat Denver next Sunday is to spread it out and throw all over the place. (Actually, probably not.)

One other note for those curious: our playoff odds simulation now gives Cleveland 51.1 percent odds of finishing the season 0-16. I know, that seems a bit too low, but strange things do happen in the NFL. It's possible even Cleveland will somehow stumble backwards into a win in the next three weeks.

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 17 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. The best player of each week, the Football Outsiders Hero, will require you to collect a set of the other four Football Outsiders players that week, plus a certain number of Football Outsiders collectibles available in Madden Ultimate Team packs.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 14 are:

CB Janoris Jenkins, NYG (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HERO) : Shut down Dez Bryant with just 1 catch for 10 yards; also had interception and forced fumble.

: Shut down Dez Bryant with just 1 catch for 10 yards; also had interception and forced fumble. RB Carlos Hyde, SF : Second among Week 14 RB with 84 DYAR (17 carries, 193 yards, 7-yard receiving TD).

: Second among Week 14 RB with 84 DYAR (17 carries, 193 yards, 7-yard receiving TD). WR Marqise Lee, JAC : Third among Week 14 WR with 50 DYAR (5-for-8, 113 yards vs. No. 2 pass defense by DVOA).

: Third among Week 14 WR with 50 DYAR (5-for-8, 113 yards vs. No. 2 pass defense by DVOA). SS Keith Tandy, TB : Led Tampa Bay with 9 combined tackles; game-sealing INT and two other PDs in fourth quarter.

: Led Tampa Bay with 9 combined tackles; game-sealing INT and two other PDs in fourth quarter. LG Lane Taylor, GB: Helped shut down Seattle pass rush in dominant 38-10 victory.

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All player/team DVOA stats pages are now updated through Week 14 of 2016. Playoff odds, snap counts, and the premium DVOA database are also fully updated. Drive stats and pace stats will be updated later this evening.

If you're looking for more of my thoughts on the Football Outsiders playoff odds and DVOA ratings, my playoff odds commentary at ESPN Insider will be running on Tuesday afternoons instead of Wednesday mornings for the remainder of the regular season.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 14 weeks of 2016, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 NE 21.2% 1 26.6% 1 11-2 21.9% 3 2.9% 20 2.3% 9 2 DAL 20.8% 2 22.3% 2 11-2 22.6% 2 4.1% 21 2.3% 8 3 ATL 18.1% 4 19.2% 3 8-5 25.8% 1 10.6% 27 2.9% 7 4 PIT 14.4% 7 15.2% 5 8-5 9.3% 9 -4.7% 9 0.4% 15 5 KC 13.9% 8 17.1% 4 10-3 2.2% 12 -4.3% 11 7.5% 2 6 PHI 13.0% 5 10.8% 10 5-8 -6.4% 22 -12.0% 5 7.5% 3 7 GB 12.5% 12 14.1% 6 7-6 12.2% 8 -2.4% 14 -2.1% 21 8 OAK 11.7% 6 13.4% 7 10-3 16.5% 5 5.9% 23 1.1% 12 9 WAS 10.6% 10 11.8% 8 7-5-1 17.3% 4 7.4% 24 0.8% 13 10 SEA 9.9% 3 9.0% 11 8-4-1 -3.1% 18 -11.4% 6 1.6% 11 11 BAL 8.7% 9 10.9% 9 7-6 -11.8% 26 -15.5% 2 4.9% 6 12 NYG 6.3% 13 6.8% 12 9-4 -6.1% 20 -13.5% 4 -1.2% 19 13 DEN 5.7% 11 3.9% 15 8-5 -9.9% 25 -17.5% 1 -2.0% 20 14 MIN 4.1% 14 -0.6% 21 7-6 -8.6% 24 -11.0% 7 1.7% 10 15 BUF 3.1% 16 3.7% 16 6-7 9.1% 10 5.1% 22 -0.8% 18 16 TEN 3.0% 18 5.5% 14 7-6 12.9% 7 7.6% 25 -2.4% 23 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 SD 1.8% 17 -1.1% 22 5-8 -1.6% 16 -5.8% 8 -2.4% 24 18 NO 1.6% 15 2.8% 17 5-8 13.6% 6 9.0% 26 -3.0% 26 19 TB 1.6% 20 6.5% 13 8-5 -0.7% 15 -4.5% 10 -2.2% 22 20 CIN 0.6% 21 1.4% 18 5-7-1 5.8% 11 2.4% 19 -2.8% 25 21 MIA -0.3% 19 1.3% 19 8-5 -2.0% 17 -1.2% 17 0.5% 14 22 CHI -3.2% 23 -0.1% 20 3-10 -4.0% 19 -0.8% 18 0.1% 16 23 CAR -6.1% 24 -7.6% 24 5-8 -6.3% 21 -3.4% 12 -3.2% 27 24 ARI -6.1% 22 -12.5% 26 5-7-1 -13.6% 28 -14.2% 3 -6.7% 32 25 IND -7.5% 25 -3.3% 23 6-7 0.1% 14 13.0% 29 5.4% 5 26 DET -8.8% 26 -8.0% 25 9-4 1.3% 13 15.9% 31 5.8% 4 27 JAC -14.4% 27 -14.2% 27 2-11 -12.0% 27 -2.2% 15 -4.5% 29 28 SF -20.4% 29 -21.6% 28 1-12 -6.9% 23 13.1% 30 -0.4% 17 29 LARM -21.1% 28 -22.5% 29 4-9 -31.0% 32 -1.8% 16 8.2% 1 30 HOU -22.6% 30 -23.1% 30 7-6 -19.4% 31 -2.7% 13 -5.9% 30 31 NYJ -34.8% 31 -37.5% 31 4-9 -16.6% 30 11.5% 28 -6.7% 31 32 CLE -37.6% 32 -39.7% 32 0-13 -15.7% 29 17.9% 32 -4.1% 28

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).