Scientists who had conducted recent mathematical modelings of the spread of COVID-19 in India say Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of an extension of the nationwide lockdown is a vindication of their predictions.

At the commencement of the lockdown, on 25 March, several academics including those at Cambridge University, Institute of Mathematical Sciences (IMS), Chennai and Shiv Nadar University had run mathematical projections to analyse and predict the spread of the novel coronavirus in the country.

A common conclusion among them was the insufficiency of a 21-day lockdown and the need to have several periods of sustained lockdowns to flatten the curve and eliminate the transmission of the virus. The verdict on the effectiveness of the extended 40-day lockdown is yet to be measured.