MONZA, Italy -- Fernando Alonso has predicted McLaren can finish 2016 on the tail of Red Bull due to the type of circuits on the calendar after this weekend's Italian Grand Prix.

Alonso recorded an impressive drive to seventh from the back row the grid in Belgium, capitalising on early chaos but also displaying genuine pace later in the race. Afterwards the Spaniard said such a strong result at Spa would have been "unthinkable" earlier in the season, while Honda said the race confirmed recent progress.

Though he is expecting a tough race in Monza, the most power dependent circuit on the calendar, Alonso has high hopes for the subsequent races.

"Well, I think it was good progress," Alonso said in reference to the Spa result. "Obviously we stayed away from trouble at the first corner and then all the things that happened in the first couple of laps happened in the first couple of laps just happened in front of us. It was part of luck, let's say, that recovery, and part staying calm.

"We had a clear instruction from the team that we have two sets of medium tyres which most people didn't have, so to take advantage of that strategy we had to run very long the first stint. To run very long first stint is not to break the nose at the start! So we were very calm in the first couple of laps and it payed off with the red flag. But even without the red flag I think we were in the points anway.

"A good recovery and hopefully we can start a little higher up but this is the most difficult race of the year for us despite recent progress. I think we are still struggling here a lot. After this one, from Singapore onwards, we will enjoy these coming races because I think this car is capable of getting both McLarens into Q3 and in the points from now on."

Asked if that was confirmation McLaren was moving forward, Alonso simply said: "No, I think the biggest confirmation will come soon."

When asked if he meant Singapore, the twisty street circuit which should hide any lingering Honda power deficit and emphasise McLaren's belief in its own chassis, Alonso insisted it would be more than one race.

"Not only Singapore, I think Suzuka, Austin, and especially Abu Dhabi, I think will be very good. Even last year we expected a lot in Singapore and we were OK but we were not as good as Austin and especially Abu Dhabi. For whatever reason Abu Dhabi was really strong for us last year so I think it imagine this year we can really enjoyed it."

Alonso was then asked how good he expected to be in those races, he said: "Let's try to be just behind Red Bull."