After a couple of years of tinkering, and some heavy delays this year as life has carried on at quite a pace around me, I have finally been able to write up the first aim of this blog: a comparative rating for Formula One drivers from 1950 to today. It goes without saying that there will be some placings here which readers will disagree with – in fact, there are some that I find very surprising. A few big names are missing, due to a lack of comparable data, including Jackie Stewart, Jim Clark, and Stirling Moss.

The method

The development of the methodology is explained in the preceding posts on this blog, which is intended as much to look at how to come up with and test a statistical analysis as much as it is about the results it produces. Having said that, it is worth recapping to cut straight to the ‘finished’ article, as much as it can be. A lengthier comparison, using the figures for Mika Hakkinen as an example, is posted here.

The premise of the model is that the only comparable driver performances are those between teammates, as they are driving the only comparable cars on the track on any given day. However, as drivers generally move between teams every few years, they can be compared to a number of different drivers over their career. We can also produce a chain of comparisons: if driver A beats driver B one season, and then driver B beats driver C in the following season, then there is evidence to suggest that driver A is better than driver C, even if they have not raced each other as teammates. The model takes the difference between A’s performance relative to B, and C’s performance relative to B.

I am only counting races where neither driver suffered a mechanical retirement. Driver-related non-finishes are included, and I have assumed that drivers are at least partly responsible for a crash after lap 1, unless the race report suggests otherwise. The level of dominance of one teammate over the other is measured in terms of the standard deviation from the full set of results. The same comparison is done for the drivers’ expected level of performance relative to their best given their age, based on analysis presented by F1Metrics. With the age factor removed, any remaining difference should be due to talent.

To provide a stable reference point, I am only comparing drivers’ performances against former champions. If I compared all teammate pairings equally, then drivers who have had more than their fair share of weaker teammates would be overrated, and the system would not be able to discriminate for drivers in ‘closed loops’, with no connection to the rest of the field, such as Chilton and Bianchi, who only raced each other.

I am also using a concept of ‘confidence’. This derives from three assumptions:

– The more races in a season that two drivers took part in, the more reliable the data

– The more teammate interconnections in a comparison, the less reliable it is

– The greater time between any two interconnections, the less reliable the comparison

I have set a target for confidence in any given season as 32 races. This is based partly on ease of divisibility, and partly on the oft-quoted (but not especially formal) use of 30 cases as a threshold for valid statistical analysis. That is, if two drivers raced against each other 32 times in a season, we could consider the result a reliable indication of their relative talents, rather than a series of chance outcomes. No season has come close to that length, even without any mechanical retirements for drivers, so every teammate pairing will come with a confidence of less than 100%. For comparisons between mutual teammates, the confidence ratings for the seasons being considered are multiplied together. In addition to this, the confidence rating is multiplied by 0.8t, where t is the number of intervening seasons between the two seasons being considered. For example, a comparison via two consecutive seasons with 16 counting races would have a confidence of (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.8) = 0.16, but if they were 4 years apart, this would drop to (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.4092) = 0.1024.

As world champions are not all equal in talent, the ratings for drivers are sensitive to which champions they are more directly connected to. Frentzen, for example, is linked closely to Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill, both of whose own ratings are well below the 100-mark. To account for this, the process is run a second time, but using the new ratings for the champions, scaling their teammate’s performances up or down by the appropriate percentage. I tested running a third iteration, but there was no improvement in the error rate, so stuck with a two-iteration process.

The Metadata

104 drivers achieved confidence ratings above the 80-point threshold for inclusion as ‘confident’ ratings. The rankings are based on the peak value of the smoothed career curve based on the weighted average of each of the measurable seasons. As a driver’s performance is also subject to form, injury, and other external factors, their actual performance in any given season will vary. I have calculated these figures, as discussed in the previous post, and included their best season and the rating for that year. Where a driver has at least five measurable seasons, I have also included their career graph, comparing the season ratings with the smoothed career curve. In these graphs, the points along the red line are the measurable seasons, while the blue line represents the expected performance curve based on the weighted average of all the seasons. The x-axis shows the driver’s age.

I have listed each driver’s ‘counting’ teammates, that is, teammates against whom they have more than one counting race. For comparison against a recognisable benchmark, I have included their expected performance against ‘peak Hamilton’. This is not intended to suggest that Lewis could jump into an Alfa 158 and challenge Fangio. Instead, it represents their expected performance against a driver who was as good in that environment as Hamilton is in the current environment.

The Rankings

104: Pedro de la Rosa

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 74.81 2010 75.02 22.46%

Opponents: Takagi (1999), Verstappen (2000), Irvine (2001-2), Raikkonen (2006), Kobayashi (2010), Karthikeyan (2012)

It took de la Rosa some time to arrive in Formula One, having struggled in British Formula 3 before finding success in its Japanese equivalent, and winning Formula Nippon two seasons later. After reserve position with Jordan in 1998, de la Rosa finally debuted in 1999 aged 28, with Arrows. On debut he beat Takagi in both races where mechanical issues did not interfere, but was beaten by Verstappen the following season. A switch to Jaguar for 2001 saw poor reliability again, but a 1-1 tie with former Ferrari number 2 Irvine suggest that his performances might be improving, but de la Rosa slumped to another defeat in 2002. For several seasons de la Rosa was a reserve for McLaren, which proved to be fortuitous when he stepped in briefly for Montoya in 2005, and again in 2006 when he replaced the outbound Colombian. Despite putting the Mclaren on the podium at Hungary in 2006, de la Rosa was beaten 4-0 by Raikkonen, and was dropped when the Alonso-Hamilton lineup was selected for 2007. Several further seasons as a test driver followed, before a return to racing at Sauber in 2010, where he was outclassed by Kobayashi, and a switch to HRT in 2012, where he was able to dominate Karthikeyan 10-0, albeit at the back of the field. De la Rosa managed two further seasons in the paddock as a test driver for Ferrari, before taking an advisory role in Formula E.

103: Takuma Sato

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 75.04 2002 73.15 22.67%

Opponents: Fisichella (2002); Button (2003-5), Yamamoto (2006), Davidson (2007-8)

After four years of lower-level racing, including victory in the 2001 British Formula 3 championship and the marquee events at Macau and Zandvoort, Sato debuted in F1 with Jordan in 2002. Good performances were interspersed with rookie errors, but Sato did well enough to be placed at BAR by engine supplier Honda the following season, stepping in for the outgoing Villeneuve at the last race of the season to get a 6th place finish. Two full seasons with the team brought impressive overtakes, but also clumsy errors, including taking Trulli out of the 2005 race at Suzuka, during which time Sato was comprehensively outclassed by his teammate Button. Three following seasons with backmarkers Super Aguri included a daring run at Canada in 2007 where Sato overtook Ralf Schumacher and reigning champion Alonso to snatch 6th place. Sato was clearly better than the revolving door of teammates he faced, including beat Sakon Yamamoto 3-0 in 2006, and Anthony Davidson 8-3 in 2007. Left in the cold by Super Aguri’s collapse partway through 2008, Sato tested unsuccessfully for the 2009 Toro Rosso seat and moved to Indycar in 2010.

102: Antônio Pizzonia

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 76.76 2004 79.13 24.22%

Opponents: Webber (2003, 2005), Montoya (2004)

Pizzonia had a relatively successful junior career, taking a second place in Formula Renault 2.0 Eurocup in his first season at that level, and the British Formula 3 title the following year. After a season in F3000, he was signed as a test driver for Williams in 2002, and despite having struggled to 6th and 8th places in F3000, bagged a race seat at Jaguar for 2003. His struggles continued however, and having been clearly beaten by teammate Webber, he was dropped before the end of the year. Returning to Williams as test driver for 2004, he filled in for the injured Ralf Schumacher, performing reasonably but losing 3-0 to Montoya. The following season he again deputised at Williams, for Nick Heidfeld, alongside his former Jaguar teammate Webber. Pizzonia saw out the season, again losing to the Australian. Pizzonia took part in several lower racing series after Formula One, including Champ Car, GP2, Auto GP and Superleague Formula, before becoming a full-time racer in Stock Car.

101: Ricardo Zonta

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 76.86 1999 76.90 24.31%

Opponents: Villeneuve (1999-2000), Panis (2004)

Zonta’s junior career saw him move through a number of different series, including a debut 5th place in the championship in Brazilian F3 in 1994, and the titles in both Brazilian and South American F3 in 1995. Moving to Europe, he again took two seasons to win the title in F3000, and attracted enough attention to get a testing role at the end of 1997. In 1998 he combined a test role with McLaren with a successful tilt at the FIA GT championship, and signed with BAR for the 1999 season. A mechanically-impaired season saw him tie 1-1 with Villeneuve in their only counting races, but the following season painted a clearer picture, with Villeneuve dominated 8.5-2.5. For 2001, he returned to a test role at Jordan, making a cameo appearance, and in 2002 he returned to junior series, winning the WSN, later F3.5, title. A test role at Toyota from 2003 to 2006 saw him replace the outgoing da Matta, and where he lost a cameo rematch against Trulli, and tied 1-1 with Panis.

100: Patrick Depailler

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 77.28 1975 79.26 24.69%

Opponents: Scheckter J (1974-6), Peterson (1977), Pironi (1978), Laffite (1979)

Switching from a junior career in motorcycles to the Winfield Racing School, Depailler drove in Formula 3 and sports cars from 1967-69, progressing to F2 for 1970, with little success. He switched back to F3 and dominated the French series, building his reputation and garnering sponsorship from Elf. Occasional F1 drives in 1973 were replaced by a full-time drive at Tyrell for 1974, alongside a title-winning return to F2. A debut 7-2 defeat by the future champion Jody Scheckter is perhaps not unsurprising, and Depailler showed improvement the following season, tying 6-6. A second loss to Scheckter was followed by a close 3.5-2.5 defeat to the highly ranked Peterson. In 1978, Depailler managed to beat his teammate for the only time in his career, defeating Pironi 6-2, winning his first race along the way. A switch to Ligier for 1979 saw a promising start, before a hang-gliding injury ended his season early. Recovering the following year, Depailler was signed to Alfa Romeo as a test driver, resulting in a fatal accident at Hockenheim.

99: Mark Blundell

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 77.92 1991 79.70 25.27%

Opponents: Brundle (1991, 1993), Katayama (1994), Hakkinen (1995)

Switching from motorbikes to cars at the age of 17, Blundell had a relatively late start in car racing by modern standards. He immediately did well, first in Formula Ford 1600, and then in 2000, before stepping up to F3000 from 1987 to 1989. In 1989, he combined F3000 with sportscar racing for Nissan and testing for Williams. In 1991 he was signed by Brabham, beating more experienced teammate Brundle 3-1, before losing his seat due to Brabham’s financial problems. For 1992 he tested for Mclaren while racing sportscars, and arranged a 1993 seat at Ligier, where he was convincingly defeated in a rematch against Brundle. A move to Tyrell saw him narrowly beaten by Katayama, before team finances again cost him a seat. He returned to Mclaren, this time in a racing role, to be beaten 4-1 by rising star Hakkinen, and was replaced for the following season by Coulthard. Leaving Formula One, Blundell had a moderately successful career in CART, winning three races over five seasons.

98: Marc Surer

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 79.18 1983 79.76 26.41%

Opponents: Baldi (1982), Serra (1983), Boutsen (1983-4, 1986), Piquet (1985)

Surer cut his teeth in the German Formula Vee championship, and spent a season in Formula 3 before moving up to Formula 2, winning the European title in his third full season at that level. A promotion to Formula One followed, with a three-race cameo for Ensign in 1979 and a full season contract for ATS in 1980. Surer’s career proceeded in fits and starts, with absence from injury in 1980, a half-season return to Ensign, and a move to Theodore, before he settled at Arrows from 1982-4 and again in 1986. Surer beat his initial Arrows teammates, Baldi (4-2) and Serra (2-0), achieving intermitted top-6 finishes for a team that was quite reliable for the period. However, he was joined and outclassed by Boutsen in his latter three Arrows seasons (1983 3-4, 1984 1.5-3.5, 1986 0-2), and dominated by Piquet in the intervening season (0-6) which he spent at Brabham. These three latter seasons provide the main basis for his rating, much lower than the 17th place accorded by Bell et al.

97: Rolf Stommelen

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 79.46 1971 80.56 26.66%

Opponents: Brabham (1970), Surtees (1971), Fittipaldi W (1973), Reutemann (1973), Hill G (1974-5), Brise (1975), Patrese (1978)

Stommelen built his reputation as a sportscar driver, with both class and overall podiums at Le Mans before his Formula One debut in 1969. Sponsored for a full season at Brabham in 1970, courtesy of AMuS, he scored a podium and several points finishes, losing 2-1 to three-time champion Jack Brabham. Over the following seasons, a combination of poor reliability and partial seasons, means that there are limited counting races on which to assess his career. While the margins are small, however, he lost in every team head to head battle, albeit facing a number of well-regarded drivers, including Surtees, Reutemann, Pace, the ageing Graham Hill, and a debutant Patrese.

96: Romain Grosjean

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 79.79 2017 80.09 26.96%

Opponents: Alonso (2009), Raikkonen (2012-3), Maldonado (2014-5), Gutierrez (2016), Magnussen K (2017-18)

Grosjean was a championship contender in GP2 in 2009 when he was called up to Renault to replace the outgoing Piquet Jr. Arriving late in the season, he unsurprisingly failed to score any points in his 7 appearances and was beaten 4-0 by Alonso, but also set the tone for future seasons in both being involved in a number of racing incidents, and struggling with brake issues. Dropped in 2010, Grosjean had success in a number of junior series, and Renault, by then Lotus, gave him a second chance in a Formula One seat. Benefiting from the strong Lotus cars in 2012 and 2013, Grosjean scored a number of podium finishes, but at the same time caused a number of accidents, establishing a reputation as a crash-prone driver, and earning a race ban that saw him sit out the 2011 Italian Grand Prix. Over the 2012-13 seasons he was soundly beaten by Raikkonen, although improvements were visible. He was beaten again in 2014 by new teammate Maldonado, similarly known for his accident-prone racing, before pulling out a 6-3 win in 2015. Grosjean switched to Haas for the 2016 season, where he has been beaten in each season: by the fairly poorly-esteemed Esteban Gutierrez in 2016, and by Kevin Magnussen in 2017 and 2018. While Grosjean has reigned in his reputation for accidents, his troubles with brakes have been an ongoing issue in his time at Haas.

95: David Coulthard

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 79.87 2001 82.07 27.03%

Opponents: Hill (1994-5), Hakkinen (1996-01), Raikkonen (2002-4), Liuzzi (2005), Klien (2005-6), Webber (2007-8)

After switching from karts, Coulthard had success in Formula Ford and Vauxhall/Opel, before placing 2nd in British Formula 3 in his first season. It took two seasons to find similar success in International F3000, but he had done enough to get a test role with Williams. The tragic accident of Senna in 1993 saw Coulthard promoted earlier than expected. In his first half-season, Coulthard was soundly beaten by Hill, but came back to draw in his first full season. A switch to Mclaren followed. Coulthard showed that he was able to put in some good performances, but was less consistent year-on-year, visible in his long spell paired with Hakkinen. Spending much of his career in front running cars at Williams and McLaren allowed him to build up a number of wins and podium places. In what should have been his peak years, Coulthard lost heavily against Raikkonen, and was unable to maintain his performance against Klien for two successive seasons. Although still performing close to his best in 2007 and 2008, he lost heavily again, this time to Webber.

94: Richie Ginther

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 80.53 1963 81.40 27.63%

Opponents: von Trips (1960-1), Hill P (1961), Hill G (1962-4), Bucknum (1965)

After childhood hot-rod racing and a stint of military service in Korea, Ginther’s racing career started as a mechanic for home-town friend Phil Hill in 1954. A sportscar career built up over the following seasons, until Ginther debuted in Formula One with Ferrari in 1960. With only 2 counting races against his teammate von Trips, the season adds little information. In the following season, he was outclassed by both von Trips and and Hill. For 1962, Ginther switched to BRM, where he was outclassed by the other Hill, Graham. 1963 was a closer match, and rates as Ginther’s best season, before 1964 returned to form, losing 6-2. In 1965, Ginther raced for the debutant Honda works team, where he beat the unranked Bucknum 3-0.

93: Luigi Musso

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 80.60 1957 81.68 27.69%

Opponents: Mieres (1955), Behra (1955), Fangio (1956), von Trips (1957), Collins (1957-8), Hawthorn (1957-8)

Musso’s rating is based on some very brief match ups, including some shared drives. After an early career in sports cars, he switched to Formula One in 1954. In 1955, Musso beat a series of teammates in cameo appearances, including Mieres (2-1) and Behra (1.41-0). 1956 saw him paired against Fangio, losing 1.6-0. Musso’s last two seasons saw his fateful match-up with Collins and Hawthorn. The two British drivers had an agreement to share their winnings, effectively working as a team to the exclusion of Musso, and forcing Musso to take more risks to be competitive. At the 1958 French Grand Prix, this resulted in Musso running wide and crashing fatally.

92: Christian Klien

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 80.85 2004 76.76 27.92%

Opponents: Webber (2004), Coulthard (2005-6), Senna B (2010)

Klien performed relatively well in his junior career, placing highly in several series, including a runner up spot in the F3 Euroseries. He showed clear signs of development during his brief F1 stint, with a debut drubbing at Jaguar by Webber followed by a somewhat better performance at Red Bull against a declining Coulthard. Klien’s third season saw him beat Coulthard, but Red Bull nevertheless chose both his former teammates for the 2007 season, after which he fell below Vettel in the pecking order. A brief return in 2010 was initially promising, but after a mechanical issue on his debut, Klien lost to Bruno Senna in both remaining races.

91: Olivier Panis

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 80.97 1996 83.23 28.03%

Opponents: Lagorce (1994), Bernard (1994), Brundle (1995), Suzuki (1995), Diniz (1996), Nakano (1997), Trulli (1998-9), Villeneuve (2001-2), da Matta (2003-4), Zonta (2004)

After graduating to Formula One at the relatively late age of 27, Panis was a perennial midfield driver, or a leader for backmarker teams, for much of his career. His junior career had seen him achieve success, but rarely at the first time of asking, placing second in French Formula 3 at the second attempt, and winning International F3000 in his second season at that level. A debut season saw him dominate main teammate Bernard, and he went on to beat experienced teammate Brundle in 1995. His 1996 performance is rated as his best, and also saw his attritional win in Monaco. Panis was not able to match Trulli in their time at Prost, or Villeneuve at BAR. While he did beat da Matta in their first season together, the Brazilian’s development gave him the edge the following season.

90: Pedro Diniz

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 82.75 1997 84.85 29.63%

Opponents: Moreno (1995), Panis (1996), Hill D (1997), Salo (1998, 2000), Alesi (1999)

Here is the model’s first challenging output – Diniz ahead of a number of race-winning drivers. Diniz’s career fell in the period of ‘pay drivers’ and ‘professional drivers’, categories which have since tended to merge, perhaps due to increasing restrictions on entry to the field which guarantee a minimum degree of talent. Despite being known as a pay driver, Diniz was a capable driver, which was recognised even at the time. One interpretation is that his funding allowed him to prolong his career to the point where he learned the necessary skills.

As far as the model is concerned, Diniz was inconsistent through his F1 career. He beat fellow midfielder Moreno convincingly on debut, but then lost to the promising Panis. In 1998 he beat Salo handily, but was then demolished by him two seasons later. Diniz’s outstanding season was his match against former champion Hill, who he ran to a much closer result than expected. Excluding that season, Diniz’ average performance would put him 103rd on this list.

89: Jacques Villeneuve Jr

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 82.86 1996 84.09 29.74%

Opponents: Hill D (1996), Frentzen (1997-8), Zonta (1999-00), Panis (2001-2), Button (2003), Alonso (2004), Massa (2005), Heidfeld (2006)

Villeneuve is one of a few drivers who seem to have entered F1 at their best, but then fell away in their later career. After a few years getting to grips with F3 in Italy and Japan, Villeneuve found success in Formula Atlantic, finished the year 6th in his first Indycar season in 1994, and won the title at the second attempt. He was signed for Williams the following year, and continued his form by losing closely 6-7 to the more experienced Hill, and beating Hill’s replacement, the well-regarded Frentzen, 7-6 the following year, on his way to the title. 1998 was less successful, with Williams falling behind Ferrari and Mclaren, and Villeneuve tied 7-7 with an improving Frentzen. Villeneuve made the switch to BAR for 1999, with initial poor reliability, but dominated teammate Zonta 8.5-2.5 in 2000 in an improved car. From this point on, however, Villeneuve’s performances waned: in his remaining three seasons at BAR he narrowly beat Panis, and lost to the still-developing Button. A late season cameo at Renault saw him beaten 3-0 by Alonso, and a final move to Sauber resulted in losses to both Massa and Heidfeld.

88: Esteban Gutierrez

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 82.92 2016 81.27 29.79%

Opponents: Hulkenberg (2013), Sutil (2014), Grosjean (2016)

Although Gutierrez is often considered one of the weakest drivers to hold an F1 seat in recent times, he outperformed two drivers that were considered steady hands of the midfield and who retained F1 seats for a number of seasons. A busy junior career saw Gutierrez win GP3 at the first attempt and place 3rd in GP2 at the second attempt. In his debut in Formula One he was clearly beaten by the more established Hulkenburg, but found his feet the following year to beat Sutil 8-7. Nevertheless he was dropped by Sauber for 2015, taking a test role with Ferrari. Returning for Ferrari client Haas in 2016, he beat Grosjean 8-6. Despite beating Grosjean head-to-head he scored fewer points, and stepped back to a reserve role the following year, running partial seasons in Formula E and Indycar for 2017.

87: Maurice Trintignant

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 82.96 1955 82.65 29.83%

Opponents: Manzon (1952), Behra (1952), Schell (1953), Hawthorn (1954, 1957), Farina (1955), Castellotti (1955), Moss (1959)

As with most drivers of his generation, Trintignant’s junior and early career were heavily impacted by World War II. After the war, he competed in a number of voiturette, Formula Libre, and Formula 2 races. Poor reliability at Gordini has made his 1950 and 1951 seasons unrateable, His first counting season was a defeat by Manzon. Later in his career, Trintignant had brief encounters with several of the leading lights of the first generation of F1 drivers, tying with Castellotti and Farina, losing out to Hawthorn and Moss over varying seasons.

86: Johnny Herbert

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 83.35 1996 84.51 30.17%

Opponents: Nannini (1989), Palmer (1989), Hakkinen (1991-2), Lamy (1993-4), Zanardi (1993-4), Adams (1994), Schumacher M (1995), Frentzen (1996), Fontana (1997), Morbidelli (1997), Larini (1997), Alesi (1998), Barrichello (1999), Irvine (2000)

After victories in Formula Ford and Formula 3, Herbert was seriously injured in Formula 3000 in 1988, with amputation a serious possibility. Nevertheless, he won an F1 seat for 1989, scoring points on his debut. Herbert was outmatched by teammate Nannini and dropped before the season ended, returning with Tyrell to tie with Palmer. He signed to Lotus from 1990 to 1994, where he lost twice to Hakkinen, but beat both Zanardi and Lamy. Herbert was part of a merry-go-round of drivers in 1993-4, leaving Lotus after beating Lamy and Adams, beating Panis in a single appearance at Ligier, and finishing the year with Benetton. 1995 saw him beaten comprehensively by Schumacher. Moving to Sauber for three seasons, he beat Frentzen, Morbidelli, and Larini, before losing 6-3 to Alesi in 1998. In 1999, he tied Barrichello in a close match at Stewart, and lost 4-3 to Irvine in another close match the following year, showing the consistency in Schumacher’s teammates.

85: Vitantonio Liuzzi

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 83.48 2011 84.08 30.29%

Opponents: Coulthard (2005), Speed (2006-7), Vettel (2007), Sutil (2009-10), Ricciardo (2011), Karthikeyan (2011)

Stepping up from karts to cars in 2001, at the age of 21, Liuzzi nevertheless finished second in German Formula Renault 2000, and became a test driver for Williams the following year. Limited success in a number of Formula 3 series in 2002 was followed by a debut 4th in F3000 in 2003, and the championship the following year, while also acting as test driver for Sauber and Red Bull. For 2005, Red Bull promoted Liuzzi to Formula One, stepping in to Klien’s seat for four races, where he lost by a reasonable 2-1 to the vastly more experienced Coulthard. Taking up a seat at the ‘new’ Toro Rosso team the following year, he initially matched Speed before struggling in 2007. Nevertheless, it was Speed that was dropped mid-season, and Liuzzi beat his replacement, Sebastian Vettel 3-1. Dropped at the end of the season, he found another testing role, at Force India, and was again promoted mid-season in 2009, replacing the Ferrari-bound Fisichella. Initially doing well against Sutil, he was soundly beaten in 2010, and switched to backmarkers Hispania, where he dominated Karthikeyan, but was trounced 5-1 by another driver from the Red Bull stable, Daniel Ricciardo.

84: Adrian Sutil

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 83.50 2008 83.62 30.32%

Opponents: Yamamoto (2007), Albers (2007), Fisichella (2008-9), Liuzzi (2009-10), di Resta (2011, 2013), Gutierrez (2014)

Sutil picked up a number of junior accolades on his way to F1, including a debut title in Swiss Formula Ford, a second place in the F3 Euro Series at the second attempt, and another first-time success in Japanese F3. Having been a test driver for Midland in 2006, he was promoted to a race seat at it’s successor Spyker for 2007, where he beat Albers in the first half of the season, and matched Yamamoto in the latter half. The team changed hands gain for 2008, becoming Force India, where Sutil continued for the next five seasons, with intermittent form. A first season against the well-regarded and experienced Fisichella seemed impressive, but was followed by a clear loss to both Fisichella and his replacement Liuzzi. He beat Liuzzi and then di Resta soundly in the following two seasons, before eventually losing his 2012 race seat after a sentence for a 2011 assault. Returning in 2013, he was beaten in a rematch against di Resta, and then again by Gutierrez after switching to Sauber.

83: Jacques Laffite

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 83.69 1979 85.08 30.48%

Opponents: Ickx (1979), Depailler (1979), Pironi (1980), Tambay (1981), Cheever (1982), Rosberg K (1983-4), Streiff (1985), de Cesaris (1985), Arnoux (1986)

Starting out as a mechanic for Jean-Pierre Jabouille in F3, Laffite began his own driving career, winning French Formula Renault in 1972 and French F3 in 1973. A partial season in F2 in 1974 nevertheless saw him 5th in the championship, as he made his first five F1 starts with Frank Williams. With his first four seasons as his teams’ sole entry, his first pairings were against Ickx and Depailler in 1979. Laffite performed well. Nevertheless, he went on to lose to Pironi in 1980, to Cheever in 1982, to Rosberg in 1983 and 1984, and to Arnoux in 1986.

83: Martin Brundle

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 83.73 1992 85.72 30.52%

Opponents: Bellof (1985), Streiff (1986), Modena (1989), Blundell (1991, 1993), Schumacher M (1992), Hakkinen (1994), Panis (1995), Barrichello (1996)

Brundle moved to single-seater racing from grass-track hot-rods at the age of 20, racing in Formula Ford alongside touring car commitments, stepping into the BSCC, now the BTCC, as teammate to Stirling Moss in 1981. In 1983, his second season at F3, he challenged Senna for the title, with both drivers getting a seat in Formula One for 1984. With 1984’s results retrospectively wiped out for team technical misdemeanours, Brundle lost 3-1 to Bellof at Tyrell in 1985 season, but came back to beat Streiff 5-2 in 1986. Switching to Zakspeed in 1987 proved to be an error, with poor pace and reliability. Brundle scored the team’s only points, but lost in the one counting race with his teammate Danner. Brundle sat out 1988 in the World Sportscar Championship, other than a one-race cameo at Williams standing in for Mansell. He returned with Brabham for 1989, losing 3-2 to the promising Modena, and went back to sportscars again for 1990. Returning at Brabham again in 1991, be beat Blundell 3-1, and was picked up by Benetton for 1992. The model suggests that Brundle took advantage of his opportunity, with a 6-4 loss to Schumacher rating as his best performance. Nevertheless, he was dropped at the end of the season, and signed for Ligier with a rematch against former Brabham teammate Blundell, beating him again, 9.5-4.5. Brundle’s reputation was sufficient to win him the Mclaren seat for 1994, where he was beaten 5-1 by future champion Hakkinen. Replaced as part of Mansell’s ill-fated return, Brundle returned to Ligier, losing 3.5-5.5 to Panis, and a final season at Jordan saw him narrowly beaten by Barrichello.

81: Eddie Irvine

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 84.09 1999 86.89 30.85%

Opponents: Barrichello (1993-95), Schumacher M (1996-99), Salo (1999), Herbert (2000), de la Rosa (2001-2), Burti (2001)

Irvine’s progress through junior racing series was stop-start, spending four seasons in Formula Ford before winning the title, albeit then winning two FF1600 titles in the UK in the same year, as well as the prestigious Festival. He then achieved a 5th in British F3, moved to F3000 for two seasons, achieving 3rd in the championship in the second year, and then three seasons in Japanese F3000, from where he was plucked late in 1993 by Jordan to step into a race seat, the last of the flying circus of drivers to run alongside Barrichello. Irvine and Barrichello were closely matched in the following two seasons, during which time Irvine began to reign in his accident-prone reputation as ‘Irv the Swerve’ that had begun in his debut race. Moving to Ferrari in 1996, Irvine was dominated by Schumacher in his first three seasons, not scoring a win until 1999, which is rated as his best season. On the one hand, the model does not discriminate for Schumacher acting as Irvine’s wingman after returning from spending the third quarter of the season out injured. However, Irvine had beaten his teammate fair and square in Australia, and was a strong third in the championship when Schumacher crashed at Silverstone, suggesting he was in good form regardless. Moving to Jaguar to escape his number 2 role, Irvine narrowly beat Herbert and Burti. A final season with horrific reliability saw Irvine match de la Rosa 1-1 in counting races.

80: Alessandro Nannini

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 84.15 1989 84.08 30.90%

Opponents: de Cesaris (1986), Boutsen (1988), Pirro (1989), Herbert (1989), Piquet (1990)

Nannini initially raced rally cars on the Italian national circuit before switching to junior open-wheel racing in 1981. Competing in Formula 2 for the underperforming Minardi team, he managed to place 7th in the championship in 1983, and raced for Lancia in sports cars in 1984 and 85. After initial struggles, he was eventually permitted a superlicence for 1986, returning to Minardi at the top level. Poor reliability means that from his first two seasons only one race counts, a loss to de Cesaris. He performed well as Benetton’s number 2 driver against the well-regarded Boutsen, and stepped up to the team leader role for 1991, dominating new teammates Herbert and Pirro. Dropping back to number 2 to support Piquet, Nannini was defeated again. A helicopter accident late in 1991 saw Nannini suffer effectively career-ending injuries.

79: Jos Verstappen

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 85.05 1994 82.32 31.71%

Opponents: Lehto (1994), Schumacher M (1994), Schiattarella (1995), Rosset (1996), Salo (1997), Barrichello (1998), de la Rosa (2000), Bernoldi (2001), Kiesa (2003), Wilson (2003)

After success in German Formula 3, Verstappen tested for Arrows at the end of 1993, and found himself in demand from all but the top teams, landing a reserve seat with Benetton. Unexpectedly called up to a race seat when Lehto was injured in testing, Verstappen’s first few races were error-prone, but after Lehto failed to impress, Verstappen was back in the cockpit from Canada until Herbert was parachuted in for the last two races, losing 4-0 to Schumacher. Loaned to less reliable Simtek for 1995, he beat teammate Schiattarella in their one counting race, but lost his Benetton connection. A 1996 appearance for Arrows was again limited by reliability, beating Rosset 2.5-1.5, with Verstappen moving on again to Tyrrell. Reliability was better, but performance was not, with Verstappen and his teammate Salo languishing at the back of the field. Verstappen ran out the 6-0 winner, but pay-driver Rosset was retained by incoming owners BAT. Unemployed at the start of the season, he replaced Magnussen at Stewart, losing 2-0 to Barrichello, and failing to get a contract for 1999. A promising contract for 1999 with Honda never bore fruit, and Verstappen returned to Arrows for 2000 and 2001, beating de la Rosa 6.5-2.5 and Bernoldi 6-1. Again, Verstappen was left unemployed for 2002, returning in 2003 with Minardi, beating Kiesa 3-0, but losing to rookie Wilson 3.5-1.5.

Verstappen beat a series of ephemeral drivers, but lost when he lined up against more established teammates – Schumacher, Salo, and Barrichello. Having been parachuted into a number of different teams during his career, perhaps he would have performed better with a degree of stability.

78: Alex Wurz

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 85.38 1998 85.52 32.01%

Opponents: Alesi (1997), Fisichella (1998-2000), Rosberg N (2007)

Five years in Formula 3 brought moderate success for Wurz, with a second place in German F3 championship in 1994. Neverthless, after a season in DTM for 1996, Wurz stood in for Berger at Benetton for 1997, losing in two counting experiences against Alesi. A promising first full season against highly-rated Fisichella was followed by a decline in the next two seasons, and Wurz was replaced by Button for 2001. Despite this, his experience saw him sign as a test-driver at Mclaren, making a stand-in appearance in 2005, and then at Williams. A return to racing in 2007 saw a defeat by the rising Rosberg in only his second season of F1. Wurz’ season rating for 2007 is slightly below his predicting curve for that year, suggesting that time away from racing had dented his skills to some extent. Two final seasons as test driver for Honda, then Brawn, saw him make no further appearances.

77: Eddie Cheever

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 85.89 1987 85.98 32.47%

Opponents: Alboreto (1981), Laffite (1982), Prost (1983), Patrese (1984-5), Warwick (1987-9)

Living in Italy from a young age, Cheever’s motorsports career included Italian and European karting titles, and race wins in European F3 in 1975. Four seasons with future F1 team-boss Ron Dennis in F2 led to a runner-up place in 1977 and a reputation as a hot talent. 1978 saw Cheever make cameo appearances in Formula One for Theodore and Hesketh, before a return to F2 with Osella. Cheever followed Osella back to Formula One for 1980, before switching to Tyrell for 1981. A debut 4-3 loss to Alboreto was promising, and Cheever followed up by beating Laffite at Ligier 2-1 in 1982. For 1983 he moved again, to the works Renault team, where he was dominated 5-1 by Prost. While Cheever’s performances at Alfa Romeo in 1984 and 85 were well received, he was beaten head to head by Patrese in both years. Cheever made only one appearance in 1986, driving in sportscars instead, but beat Warwick 5-1 at Arrows in 1987. The following two seasons however saw Warwick come out on top.

76: Satoru Nakajima

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 85.95 1989 85.83 32.53%

Opponents: Senna (1987), Piquet (1988-9), Alesi (1990), Modena (1991)

Nakajima spent a number of years racing in local series, before a debut victory in Japanese Formula 2 in 1978. He dominated the national series through the 1980s, winning 5 titles, before debuting in Formula One in 1987, already aged 34, a career path that Naoki Yamamoto seems intent on mirroring. For a driver normally associated with the back of the pack, Nakajima faced some of the toughest teammates of his period. A 5-3 loss to Piquet and a tie with Alesi in the Frenchman’s second season of F1 are Nakajima’s standout performances.

75: Mike Hailwood

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 86.10 1972 86.27 32.66%

Opponents: Amon (1964), de Adamich (1972), Schenken (1972), Pace (1973), Hulme (1974), Fittipaldi E (1974)

Benefitting, like many racing drivers, from a wealthy family background, Hailwood started out in motorcycle racing, winning four world championships at 500cc. While still racing bikes, he made his first F1 appearance in 1963, and tied 1-1 with Amon in 1964. In 1968, he returned to car racing in Formula 5000 and sports cars, taking 3rd place in the European F5000 championship. A return to F1 followed in 1971, where he beat team leader Surtees, and both of his teammates the following season. In 1973, however, he lost to both his teammates at Surtees, and a switch to McLaren in 1974 saw him lose out to both Hulme and Fittipaldi.

74: Kazuki Nakajima

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 86.33 2008 84.15 32.87%

Opponents: Rosberg N (2007-9)

The son of F1 journeyman Satoru, Kazuki Nakajima had a steady progression through junior series, with a debut win in Formula Toyota, a second place in Japanese F3 at the second attempt, and lower placings in European F3 in 2006 and GP2 in 2007. Having signed as reserve driver for Williams, Nakajima was called up to a race seat in 2007 when Wurz retired before the end of the season. Nakajima’s sole teammate in F1 was Nico Rosberg. A solid debut season achieving an 11-6 loss against Rosberg, who already had 2 seasons’ experience, was followed by a poor 2009, in which he failed to score any points. Nakajima was dropped from the team, and has since found intermittent success in Super Formula.

73: Mika Häkkinen

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 86.41 1998 86.22 32.95%

Opponents: Herbert (1991-2), Brundle (1994), Blundell (1995), Coulthard (1996-2001)

In an odd coincidence, Hakkinen’s entire F1 career saw him take on British teammates, with the exception of a single counting race against Senna. After switching from karts to cars, Hakkinen had a relatively short and successful junior career. A debut title in Nordic Formula Ford was followed by another in Lotus Euroseries. British Formula Three proved a harder challenge, with the championship coming in the second year. For 1991, with Marlboro sponsorship, Hakkinen tested for Benetton, but signed for Lotus, where he beat both Bailey and Herbert. A second season followed, where he beat Herbert convincingly 6.5-1.5. An attempted switch to Williams for 1993 was stymied by a contract dispute with Lotus. Eventually, he was able to sign for McLaren, initially as a race driver, although he was bumped down to a reserve role in favour of Michael Andretti. Before the end of the season, Andretti had been dropped, and Hakkinen stepped up to lose his one counting race against Senna. Retained for 1994, he beat new teammate Brundle 5-1 despite several errors that saw him suspended from the Hungarian Grand Prix. In 1995 he dominated principal teammate Blundell, before seeing out his career with long-term teammate Coulthard. Their form as teammates was inconsistent, with Hakkinen beating and then tying with Coulthard in alternate seasons, before losing his dominance in a demoralised 2001, and retiring at the end of the season.

Hakkinen’s performance in 1998 was his standout year, when he pulled out a dominant 9-1 victory over Coulthard, and in doing so clinched his first title. His second, the following year, was more fortunate, as he failed to beat his teammate, and benefitted from Ferrari’s Schumacher missing much of the season with a broken leg. Instead, the weaker Irvine was able to push the title chase to the final race in the mechanically superior Ferrari.

72: Pastor Maldonado

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 87.46 2013 87.79 33.89%

Opponents: Barrichello (2011), Senna (2012), Bottas (2013), Grosjean (2014-5)

It is perhaps a surprise to see Maldonado rated this highly, with even his self-inflicted non-finishes being included. A relatively promising junior career included a championship in Italian Formula Renault at the second attempt, and a 3rd place in Formula Renault 3.5 in 2006, also at the second attempt. His progression slowed in GP2, where he became champion in 2010 at the fourth time of asking. Having been linked with both HRT and the failed Stefan GP bid for 2010, he instead replaced Hulkenberg at Williams for 2011. A debut 8-5 defeat to an aging Barrichello hinted at promise, and he proved a close match for Senna over one season, and Grosjean over two. What has improved his rating is a 10-6 defeat of a debutant Bottas, who has since shown himself to be a close match for Massa and performed well against Hamilton. The model may still be underrating the importance of experience, and seeing Bottas as a stronger opponent than he may have been in that season.

71: Mark Webber

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 87.65 2009 87.99 34.07%

Opponents: Yoong (2002), Wilson (2003), Pizzonia (2003, 2005), Klien (2004), Heidfeld (2005), Rosberg N (2006), Coulthard (2007-8), Vettel (2009-13)

After two seasons on the Australian domestic junior series, Webber moved to Europe and found immediate success, taking third in the prestigious Formula Ford Festival in his first appearance, and winning it at the second attempt, along with 2nd in the British Formula Ford series and 3rd in the European version. In 1998 and 1999 he raced in sports cars, taking 3rd in the FIA GT series. Returning to open wheel racing, he finished on the podium in both seasons of F3000, combining both with Formula One testing roles, first for Arrows, and then Benetton. For 2001, he found a race driver role at backmarkers Minardi, beating Yoong 5-0, and earning a seat at midfield Jaguar. Over two seasons, he beat Pizzonia and Klien, and tied 1-1 with Wilson. Switching to Williams for 2005, he tied 4-4 with Heidfeld, beat Pizzonia 4-1 after the German was injured, and beat debutant Nico Rosberg 5-2. Returning to Jaguar, now Red Bull, Webber dominated Coulthard over two seasons. In 2009, Coulthard was replaced by hot prospect Sebastian Vettel. Webber was the lead driver for the first year of the partnership, winning 8-6, but lost in each of the four following seasons as Vettel’s experience grew. 2012 was a swansong, where he beat Vettel in at least a third of their counting races for the first time since 2009. Leaving F1 after a poor 2013, Webber drove for Porsche for 3 seasons in the WEC, taking a share of the 2015 title.

70: Damon Hill

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 87.71 1993 90.29 34.12%

Opponents: Prost (1993) Mansell (1994), Coulthard (1994-5), Villeneuve Jr (1996), Diniz (1997), Schumacher R (1998), Frentzen (1999)

Hill was a late arrival in Formula One, at the age of 31. He had initially started as a motorcycle racer, switching to cars in 1983, and placing 3rd in one of the British Formula Ford championships. Racing at F3 level required further financial support, and it wasn’t until 1988 that Hill took 3rd in the British F3 championship. He secured a seat in the British F3000 series, rather than the more prestigious but expensive international version, and also nabbed a testing role with Williams. Brabham’s struggles saw him qualify for two races. With Mansell moving to Indycar and Patrese switching to Benetton, Hill was unexpectedly promoted to a Williams race seat for 1993. His first season at Williams saw him perform well against Prost, admittedly at the latter end of his career, and returning from a one-year sabbatical. The following season’s promised line up against Senna failed to materialise under the tragic circumstances of Senna’s fatal crash at Imola. Instead, Hill wiped the floor against the debutant Coulthard and the returning Mansell, who like Prost, was at the end of his career, and returning from racing in the Indy series. Hill’s full season against Coulthard showed the limits of his ability, although he was still strong enough to dispatch a relatively inexperienced Villeneuve to win the title in 1996. Dropped by Williams the following year, he tied against the promising Ralf Schumacher. In his final season he was dominated by Frentzen, although an element of this is likely to be his own loss of morale.

69: Ricardo Patrese

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 87.72 1988 88.91 34.13%

Opponents: Jones (1977), Stommelen (1978), Mass (1979-80), Stohr (1981), Piquet Sr (1982-3), Cheever (1984-5), Warwick (1986), de Cesaris (1987), Mansell (1988, 91-2), Boutsen (1989-90), Schumacher M (1993)

Patrese’s long career saw him matched against some of the best drivers of several eras, as well as some of the worst. Moving up from karting, he took second place in the Formula Italia championship in 1975, and took the Italian and European Formula 3 titles on debut the following season. A full season in European Formula 2 in 1977 was accompanied by a partial season with Shadow, losing 6-0 to Jones. Moving to Arrows in 1978, he beat Stommelen, tied with Mass in the two following seasons, and beat Stohr in 1981. From 1982 to 1988, Patrese moved teams every two years, matching Piquet closely at Brabham, beating Cheever at Alfa Romeo, and Warwick and de Cesaris at Brabham again. At the end of 1987, Patrese was signed by Williams, where he remained for 5 seasons. He beat Mansell in 1988, but was beaten by Boutsen in the next two seasons, and by Mansell on his return in 1991 and 1992. A final season at Benetton saw him lose to a developing Schumacher. The model rates 1988 as Patrese’s best, the one season out of three where he was able to beat Mansell in equal machinery.

68: Heinz-Harald Frentzen

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 88.29 1999 92.47 34.64%

Opponents: Wendlinger (1994-5), Bouillon (1995), Herbert (1996), Villeneuve Jr (1997-8), Hill (1999), Trulli (2000-1), Burti (2001), Bernoldi (2002), Heidfeld (2003)

In his junior career, Frentzen won the 1988 German Formula Opel title at the first attempt, before moving to German F3, where he faced future F1 drivers Schumacher and Wendlinger. Frentzen took the most victories, but Wendlinger won the title. All three were signed by Sauber for the Mercedes sportscar programme, but Schumacher was the first to be promoted to F1. Frentzen spent two seasons in International F3000, and then another two in the Japanese equivalent. Eventually making it to F1 at Sauber in 1994, Frentzen was again paired with Wendlinger, losing out at the first attempt, but beating his teammate in their second season, and dominating Wendlinger’s mid-season replacement Bouillon. The more experienced Herbert was a step too far, and it took Frentzen a season at Williams to match Villeneuve, having lost 7-5 in 1997. The model rates Frentzen’s 1999 domination of Hill as his best performance, although it is admittedly not taking Hill’s flagging morale into account. After a close match against Trulli over two seasons, Frentzen’s star waned, and two seasons in midfield teams with poor reliability masked any strong performances.

67: Derek Warwick

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 88.47 1984 90.83 34.81%

Opponents: Fabi T (1982), Giacomelli (1983), Tambay (1984-5), Patrese (1986), Cheever (1987-9), Donnelly (1990), Suzuki A (1993)

Perhaps achieving more success in sports car racing than open-wheel, Warwick nevertheless showed himself as a competent driver, albeit an inconsistent one. Beginning in stock car racing, he moved to open-wheel in 1975, winning the European Formula Ford title in 1976, and British Formula 3 (Vandervell) in 1978. He spent two seasons in European Formula 2, finishing runner-up in 1980. For 1981, he stepped up to Formula 1 with Toleman, but only managed to qualify once. In 1982, the team’s poor performance resulted in no counting races against teammate Teo Fabi. Better results for 1983 saw him dominate Giacomelli, before moving to Renault for 1984. A compelling victory over Tambay was followed by an equally strong reverse in 1985. For 1986, he switched to sports cars, returning to step in for the late de Angelis, beating Patrese. Returning full-time at Arrows in 1987, he lost to Cheever, but beat him in both 1988 and 1989. A move to Lotus in 1990 saw him beat the poorly-rated Donnelly. Warwick returned to sportscar racing for 1991 and 1992, taking the World Sportscar championship. A final season at Footwork resulted in a loss to Aguri Suzuki.

66: Kevin Magnussen

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 88.60 2018 85.46 34.92%

Opponents: Button (2014), Palmer (2016), Grosjean (2017-18)

The son of former F1 driver Jan, Kevin had a fairly lengthy junior career, albeit one with plenty of successes. A debut season in Danish Formula Ford saw immediate title success, followed by a 2nd place in Formula Renault NEC. Magnussen stayed at the F3 level, switching from German to British series, but taking a championship podium in each. Graduating to Formula Renault 3.5 in 2012, he took the title in 2013. His first season was a call up to the fading McLaren team to replace Sergio Perez, a vindication of McLaren’s efforts to cultivate a junior academy. Dominated by the massively experienced Button, Magnussen was dropped from the race lineup with the arrival of Alonso. Unable to push his way back into the team, he switched to Renault for 2015, where he tied with the less well-regarded Palmer. A move to Haas seems to have put Magnussen’s career back on track, beating Grosjean in 2017 and extending his dominance in 2018.

65: Michele Alboreto

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 88.68 1984 90.49 34.99%

Opponents: Cheever (1981), Henton (1982), Borgudd (1982), Sullivan (1983), Arnoux (1984), Johansson (1985-6), Berger (1987-8), Palmer (1989), Caffi (1990), Suzuki (1992), Badoer (1993), Martini (1994)

After starting out in Formula Monza, Alboreto moved to Formula Italia in 1978, winning several races over two seasons before stepping up to both Italian and European Formula 3. He places 2nd in the domestic series, and 6th in the European. In his second season, he took the European title. For 1981, Alboreto combined a season in European Formula 2 with Minardi, taking their only win at that level, with most of a season for Tyrrell in Formula 1. He beat Cheever 4-3 in his debut year at the top level, following up with dominant wins over further Tyrrell teammates Borgudd and Henton in 1982, before losing to Sullivan. For 1984, Alboreto was signed to Ferrari, where he lost to Arnoux and twice to Berger, but matched Johansson over two seasons. His final six seasons saw him drive for a number of midfield to. A 6-2 victory over Arnoux was his best season, and resulted in a 4th place in the championship.

64: Carlos Pace

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 88.72 1976 92.62 35.03%

Opponents: Pescarolo (1972), Hailwood (1973), Mass (1973), Reutemann (1974-76), Watson (1977)

A family friend of the Fittipaldis, Pace arrived in British Formula 3 in 1970 after several seasons on the Brazilian domestic circuit in both Formula Vee and sportscars, including three seasons as national champion. He lived up to the reputation with a debut title in F3, and a move to European F2 with Williams for 1971, where he had less success. Nevertheless, he was promoted to Williams’ F1 team in 1972, where he showed enough talent to win points in a year-old car, beating teammate Pescarolo 4-2. A switch to Surtees for the following year (in fact, before the end of the season) saw good pace with poor reliability, but he beat teammates Hailwood and Mass. He switched teams mid-season again in 1974, to Brabham, where he lost to established teammate Reutemann, losing again in a full season in 1975, but taking his first victory. He beat Reutemann at the third attempt, stepping up to team-leader for 1977 alongside Watson, but tragically dying in a place crash part-way through the season.

63: Keke Rosberg

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 89.00 1980 91.14 35.28%

Opponents: Mass (1978), Fittipaldi E (1980), Serra (1981), Daly (1982), Reutemann (1982), Laffite (1983-4), Mansell (1985), Prost (1986)

Moving up from a successful karting career to Formula Vee in 1972, Rosberg won the German GTX title in 1975, and raced with limited success in European Formula Two from 1976 to 1979, as well as in Formula Atlantic For the latter two seasons, he also made appearances in Formula One for backmarker teams Theodore, ATS, and Wolf. For 1980, Wolf was bought out by Fittipaldi, and Rosberg was signed for the full season, beating his champion teammate 2-1, and tying 1-1 with Serra the following year. A move to Williams to replace the retiring Jones was a surprise reinvigoration of his career, and Rosberg dominated stand-in teammate Daly to emerge from a chaotic season as world champion. Rosberg dominated Laffite in 1983 and 1984, but lost to Mansell in 1985. Switching to McLaren, he was dominated by Prost, leading to his retirement.

Rosberg showed convincing performances against a number of drivers, but was outclassed against the other world champions he faced, suggesting that he was firmly a midfield driver. Nevertheless, when presented with the opportunity of a world championship, he was able to take advantage of the situation.

62: Mike Hawthorn

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 89.03 1958 88.78 35.31%

Opponents: Villoresi (1953) Farina (1953), Ascari (1953), Trintignant (1954, 1957), Castellotti (1955), Musso (1957-8), Collins (1957-8), Gendebien (1958), von Trips (1958)

Hawthorn’s early career was on the domestic sports car circuit in Britain, before switching to Formula 2 in 1952. Before the end of the season he had attracted interest from Ferrari, and appeared in several World Championship races running a Cooper, scoring his first podium in his 3rd race. A full season with Ferrari followed in 1953. Despite finishing fourth in the championship, he lost to teammates Farina, Ascari, and Villoresi. 1954 saw improvement, beating teammate Trintignant and placing third in the title race. Switching to Vanwall at the start of 1955 resulted in retirements, and he returned to Ferrari for the second half of the season, losing to new teammate Castellotti. In 1956 he raced for both Owen and Vanwell, before returning to Ferrari again for 1957, where he tied with teammates Musso and Collins. For 1959, he beat full-season teammates von Trips and Musso, lost to Gendebien, and tied with Collins. Nevertheless, a string of second places saw him take the title. Hawthorn is the lowest rated champion among those above the confidence threshold. His head-to-head performances illustrate this – early performances against the aging Farina, Ascari, and Villoresi were poor. After establishing himself in F1, Hawthorn then broadly tied with Musso, Collins, and Trintignant.

61: Giancarlo Fisichella

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 89.27 2004 90.36 35.53%

Opponents: Lamy (1996), Schumacher R (1997), Wurz (1998-2000), Button (2001), Sato (2002), Firman (2003), Massa (2004), Alonso (2005-6), Kovalainen (2007), Sutil (2008-9), Raikkonen (2009)

Fisichella began his car-racing career in Italian Formula 3, skipping the smaller-engined series, placing 3rd in the 1993 championship, and taking the title in 1994. After only three seasons in open-wheel cars, he was signed as a test-driver for Minardi, while racing for the season in the ITC. Other than a debut loss to the more experienced Lamy in 1996, Fisichella remained unbeaten by a teammate until he was paired against Alonso in 2005, defeating the pacey Ralf Schumacher as well as Button in his second season and Massa on his return from testing duties. Two successive hammerings by Alonso were followed by a defeat to Kovalainen, before Fisichella found form again at Force India. Fisichella’s strong performance in 2009 saw him get the nod to step up to Ferrari in Massa’s absence, where he was disappointingly dominated by Raikkonen. Notably, Fisichella faced three of Button’s teammates, three of Alonso’s, and three of Hamilton’s, giving him a solid rating against all three.

60: Felipe Massa

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 89.52 2008 88.80 35.76%

Opponents: Heidfeld (2002), Fisichella (2004), Villeneuve (2005), Schumacher M (2006), Raikkonen (2007-9), Alonso (2010-2013), Bottas (2014-6), Stroll (2017)

Felipe Massa had reasonable success in junior series, taking the Formula Chevrolet title at the second attempt, and moving to Europe to win Formula Renault in Italy the following year. A third successive title followed in 2001, in Euro 3000, attracting the attention of the Formula 1 circus, and resulting in a test with Sauber. Massa showed early pace against Heidfeld, losing 6-4 in his debut season. After a season away testing, a 10-4 loss to Fisichella is perhaps not surprising. Massa showed potential by dominating Villeneuve 11-3, and performed as well against Schumacher as any of the 7-time champion’s previous teammates had managed. Massa lost out to Raikkonen in 2007, perhaps taking time to shake off his number two role, but came back to victory in 2008 and 2009. Across 4 years as teammate to Alonso, Massa was soundly beaten. His best performance was his first, in 2010, suggesting that his accident in 2009 was not the most significant contributing factor. A late-career switch to Williams saw him beat upcoming teammate Bottas only once in three seasons. Having intended to retire at the end of 2016, Massa stayed for 2017 and beat the debutant Lance Stroll. 2008, the year of his only real title challenge, was his standout performance relative to expectations.

59: Rubens Barrichello

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 89.74 2007 90.85 35.96%

Opponents: Boutsen (1993), Irvine (1993-5), Brundle (1996), Magnussen J (1997-8), Verstappen J (1998), Herbert (1999), Schumacher M (2000-5), Button (2006-9), Hulkenberg (2010), Maldonado (2011)

Like most modern South American drivers, Barrichello achieved domestic success in karting and lower formula before making an early move to Europe. He took the European Formula Opel title in 1990, the British F3 title in 1991, and third place in International Formula 3000 in 1992, before signing with Jordan for the 1993 Formula One season. A close loss to Boutsen over the first part of the season was followed by a 2-0 victory over replacement teammate Irvine in the latter part. Remaining as teammates for the next two seasons, Barrichello and Irvine were closely matched. Barrichello beat Brundle, Magnussen and Verstappen over the following seasons, before tying with Herbert in 1999. Coincidentally, these drivers also spent time as teammates of Michael Schumacher during this period – and Schumacher became Barrichello’s next teammate in 2000. Five seasons followed in which Barrichello was beaten by the German every time, the closest being an 8-4 defeat in 2002. A move to struggling Honda seemed to be a step backwards, and Barrichello lost to Button in two out of three seasons. The surprise emergence of the former team Honda as title-winners Brawn in 2009 saw Barrichello take his final victories, but lose to Button again over the seasons. Barrichello’s final two seasons were spent at Williams, where he beat debutants Hulkenberg and Maldonado.

Barrichello’s one victorious season against Button is rated as his best performing year, despite the poor quality of the Honda meaning a best-placed finish of 9th in that year.

58: Mike Collins

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 89.89 1956 89.92 36.09%

Opponents: Giraud-Cabantous (1953), Castellotti (1956), Fangio (1956), Hawthorn (1957-8), Musso (1957-8), von Trips (1958)

Collins was one of the first young drivers in the World Championship, arriving aged 21, in contrast to many of his contemporaries who had raced in the pre-war period. Collins performed well against his opponents, marginally beating Fangio, and tying with Hawthorn twice. He lost against several opponents in single races, which are discounted. Collins emerges as the best of the ill-fated triangle at Ferrari, in which Collins and Hawthorn worked as a team to the ultimately fatal exclusion of Luigi Musso.

57: Bruno Giacomelli

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.06 1978 90.59 36.25%

Opponents: Tambay (1978), Hunt (1978), Brambilla (1979), Andretti (1981), de Cesaris (1982), Warwick (1983)

Beginning his racing career in 1972, Giacomelli took three seasons to chalk up a title in Formula Italia, before switching to British Formula 3, where he nearly took a debut championship. Race wins in Formula 2 the following year garnered attention, and McLaren signed him for their third car in the 1977 Italian Grand Prix. He made 5 appearances the following year, running 1976 champion Hunt to a close 3-2 defeat. Later seasons failed to live up to this promise, with losses to Brambilla, Marion Adnretti, and de Cesaris, culminating in a 6-0 drubbing by Derek Warwick. Despite not beating a single teammate over the course of his career, the quality of his opposition nevertheless gives Giacomelli a ranking in the top half of the all-time field.

56: Stoffel Vandoorne

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.10 2018 88.93 36.28%

Opponents: Alonso (2017-8)

It took Vandoorne quite a while to get to Formula One while McLaren wrestled with having both he and Kevin Magnussen as emerging talents at the same time as Alonso and Button, two former champions, in their race team. Along the way, the Belgian took titles in both the 1.6 and 2.0 versions of the Renault Eurocup, both at the first attempt, and debut second places in Renault 3.5 and GP2. A second season in GP2 saw him take the title, but a lack of room in Formula One meant a switch to Super Formula, where he placed 4th while cooling his heels. He did at least made a debut appearance in Formula One, standing in for the injured Alonso. Two seasons at McLaren followed Button’s retirement, losing 6-1 on debut against Alonso, improving to a 9-2 defeat the following year. With McLaren reorganising its leadership in the background, Vandoorne was left in the cold when the new Norris-Sainz pairing was contracted for 2019. A switch to HWA in Formula E comes with ties to Mercedes, meaning that it is not impossible for him to make a return to F1 in the future. His brief stint suggests that many fans were right to be disappointed that he had been released from McLaren, and that the poor performance of the car during his time with the team led him to be underestimated. This rating, placing him slightly above Raikkonen in peak ability, concurs with F1Metric’s analysis of his qualifying gap to Alonso, which compared well with Alonso’s more illustrious teammates.

55: Kimi Raikkonen

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.29 2007 89.84 36.45%

Opponents: Heidfeld (2001), Coulthard (2002-4), Montoya (2005-6), de la Rosa (2006), Massa (2007-9), Badoer (2009), Fisichella (2009), Grosjean (2012-13), Alonso (2014), Vettel (2015-18)

As a fan favourite, this will probably be as much a controversial ranking as Vandoorne in 56th. However, Raikkonen’s head-to-head performances back up this ranking. Not much can be said about Raikkonen’s junior career as there simply wasn’t very much of it – he took the British Formula Renault winter series in 2000, and the main series title the following year, immediately winning himself a test with Sauber, who made the gutsy decision to hire him for Formula One the next season. Kimi’s youth and inexperience meant that he and Sauber attracted a good deal of criticism, but points in his debut race began to silence the critics. A close 5-3 loss to Heidfeld was a good first season, and Raikkonen was lined up to replace compatriot Hakkinen at McLaren for 2002. In his first season at a top team, Raikkonen showed some nerves, tying 3-3 with Coulthard, but he dominated his teammate 8-2 in both the following seasons. Raikkonen traded blows with Montoya over two seasons, losing out in 2005, but beating the Colombian by an equivalent margin in a foreshortened partnership the following season. Switching to Ferrari for 2007, Raikkonen beat established teammate Massa to take his only title. However, he was beaten both the following seasons, and took a two-year sabbatical, dipping into rallying, among other things. Returning in 2012, Raikkonen performed well for dark horses Lotus, and dominated weaker teammate Romain Grosjean, maintaining a less dominant margin of victory the following season. A return to Ferrari saw him crushed by Alonso, and clearly beaten by Alonso’s replacement Vettel in their first three seasons as teammates. Kimi’s tie with Vettel in 2018 is something of an outlier, coming on the heels of a 13-2 loss in 2017, and highlights the inconsistencies in Vettel’s performances as well.

54: Jochen Mass

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.32 1978 90.86 36.48%

Opponents: Pace (1973), Fittipaldi E (1974-5), Hunt (1976-77), Rosberg K (1978), Patrese (1979-80), Boesel (1982)

Mass came to car racing relatively late, competing in hillclimbs aged 22 after a stint as a sailor. Clear talent attracted a drive in the European Touring Car Championship in 1971, and the title in 1972, as well as a drive at the non-championship Eiffelrennen Formula 2 race, which he won. For 1973, Mass competed full-time in Formula 2 with the Surtees team, placing second in the championship, and running three starts in Formula One, where he was defeated 2-0 by Pace. The next year, Mass switched to McLaren, where he was defeated by Fittipaldi in both 1974 and 1975, and by Hunt in 1976 and 1977. With his star fading, he moved to ATS for 1978, beating Rosberg, and then spent two seasons with Arrows, where he matched Patrese in both years. Having had success in sportscars alongside his Formula One career, he moved to sportscar racing full time, in 1981, but returned to Formula One with RAM in 1982, where he beat Boesel 4-0. Mass performed well against a number of the respected drivers of his era, including beating future champion Keke Rosberg, but was closely matched against a still inexperienced Patrese, and was convincingly beaten by Fittipaldi and Hunt.

53: Eugenio Castellotti

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.36 1955 93.67 36.52%

Opponents: Ascari (1955), Hawthorn (1955), Trintignant (1955), Fangio (1956), de Portago (1956), Collins (1956)

Castellotti’s first races on the Italian domestic scene were with Ferrari, before he was brought to Lancia under the influence of older compatriot Ascari. He made appearances in several sportscar races, and took the Italian Hillclimb championship twice, before promotion to Lancia’s Formula One team in 1955. He was beaten by Ascari, but with Ascari’s fatal accident before the end of the season, he transferred to Ferrari. Castellotti beat several of the stable of Lancia and Ferrari drivers he faced in single races, and tied 1-1 with Trintignant. In 1956, he lost to his Ferrari teammates, including Hawthorn, Fangio, and de Portago. An accident in testing ahead of the 1957 season was tragically fatal.

52: Nico Hulkenberg

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.38 2014 88.32 36.53%

Opponents: Barrichello (2010), di Resta (2012), Gutierrez (2013), Perez (2014-6), Palmer (2017), Sainz (2018)

One of the highest achieving junior drivers ever, Hulkenberg won titles in German Formula BMW, A1 Grand Prix, and GP2 at the first attempt, and the Formula 3 Euroseries at a second attempt. He performed creditably in his debut against the vastly experienced Barrichello. He followed this up with clear victories over di Resta and Gutierrez, and carried his momentum into his first season against Perez. However, Perez asserted himself as the dominant driver over the following two seasons. Moving to Renault, Hulkenberg has dispatched Palmer and Sainz convincingly, and now faces a top-level talent in Ricciardo for 2019.

51: Lance Stroll

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.38 2017 79.43 36.54%

Opponents: Massa (2017), Sirotkin (2018)

Stroll’s arrival in Formula One was undoubtedly premature, coming directly from F3 and missing out on series like F2 and Super Formula altogether. He took victory in Italian Formula 4 in 2014, his first full racing season out of karts, gained off-season experience with victory in New Zealand’s Toyota Racing Series, and placed 5th in a first season of European F3 in 2015. A second season in F3 saw him take the title. His promotion at a young age was down in large part to the investment provided by his father, who was able to fund his success at Prema in F3, and opportunities for a comprehensive ‘rookie orientation’ at Williams. Stroll was by some distance the weakest driver in the field in 2017, and these two factors attracted considerable ire from fans. Stroll lost heavily to Massa in his debut season, taking a surprise podium at Baku. The following year he beat older debutant Sirotkin 9-6.

The relatively poor performance of Williams during Stroll’s time with the team has not helped him to build a reputation, and the model agrees that he was the weakest driver on the grid in his debut season. While he has attracted fans’ ire for his inexperience and financial backing, it is clear nevertheless that Stroll performed well in F3, and has a lot of room for development. He has shown flashes of pace, notably at Monza in 2017, which indicate genuine talent. The model predicts a career peak comparable to leading midfield drivers, based solely on his debut performance against the known quantity of Massa. 2017’s performance against Sirotkin in the Russian driver’s only F1 season added no further point of reference. His move to Racing Point for 2019 will provide further input by matching him against Sergio Perez, and indicate whether he is developing sufficiently to meet this prediction.

50: Carlos Reutemann

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.49 1978 93.67 36.63%

Reutemann faced tough opposition across his career, including five world champions, and one of the most mythologised drivers not to win the title, Gilles Villeneuve. He performed well, including victory over Villeneuve and a late-career Hill, an even record against Andretti and Rosberg, and one season apiece against Jones. Reutemann stepped up to Formula Two in 1970 after a junior career in the Argentinean domestic scene, taking second in the championship in 1971 and 4th in 1972, which he combined with ten appearances in Formula One. In his debut season he beat Hill in their three counting races, and tied with Wilson Fittipaldi. Staying with Brabham into the middle of 1976, he beat a series of teammates. His 1976 loss to Pace, whom he had beaten in both previous seasons, perhaps shows his demoralisation at Brabham before a mid-season switch to Ferrari. He lost heavily to team leader Lauda in 1977, but stepped up to the number one role the next year to beat Villeneuve. Moving to Lotus for 1979 saw Reutemann tie with Andretti, but was poor timing, with Ferrari taking the title that year. In two full seasons with Williams, Reutemann matched Jones, but with inconsistent form, losing strongly in 1980 but coming back to beat the Australian in 1981. After two races in 1982, he announced a sudden retirement – with teammate Rosberg going on to take the title.

49: Nelson Piquet Jr

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 90.97 2009 89.58 37.07%

Opponents: Alonso (2008-9)

Through his junior career, Piquet was backed by his father, the three-time champion. Success in his first full season of car racing in Formula 3 Sudamericana in 2002 was followed by a move to the UK, where he placed 3rd in British Formula 3, and tested for Williams. In 2004, he took the British F3 title, becoming the series’ youngest champion. Stepping up to GP2 for 2005, he also took the first win in the short-lived A1GP series. A debut 8th place in GP2 was followed at the second attempt by second place, behind Hamilton. Piquet was picked up by Renault as a test driver for 2007, and promoted to a race seat for 2008, alongside the returning Alonso. Reputedly this promotion was to avoid the risk of Kovalainen being too much of a challenge for Alonso, with Renault perhaps fearing a repeat of McLaren’s turbulent 2007. Alonso proved to Piquet’s only teammate in Formula 1, mirroring what would happen to Vandoorne nine years later. Despite losing to his teammate at both attempts, Piquet receives a relatively high rating based on the strength of his opponent – Raikkonen’s performance in 2014 showed how difficult it is to beat Alonso in equal machinery, and Piquet managed it on occasion while still yet to reach his own peak performance.

48: Clay Regazzoni

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 91.25 1973 91.58 37.32%

Opponents: Ickx (1970-2), Andretti (1971-2), Beltoise (1973), Lauda (1973-6), Stuck (1978), Jones (1979)

Gianclaudio ‘Clay’ Regazzoni began racing on the local scene in 1963, moving to Formula 3 in 1965 and taking a debut pole in F2 in the same season. Three seasons in Formula 3 led to a promotion to Formula 2, but Regazzoni built up a reputation for reckless driving. Nevertheless, he took the European F2 title in 1970, and debuted in Formula One at Ferrari in the same year. Paired with Ickx, he was defeated 5-0, but was retained for another two seasons in the third Ferrari, alongside Ickx and Andretti. He was the weakest of the three in both 1971 and 1972, and was dropped, switching to BRM for 1973. The change did not bring a fresh start, as he lost to Beltoise, and only narrowly beat the debutant Lauda. Unsurprisingly, when both drivers were signed to Ferrari for 1974, Lauda improved to beat Regazzoni in all of the following three seasons. For 1977, Regazzoni ran as a sole entrant for Ensign, but in 1978 he beat Stuck 4-0 at Shadow. The improvement saw him signed to Williams, but he was defeated heavily by Jones, and dropped in favour of Reutemann, who had also taken his seat at Ferrari. For 1980 he returned to Ensign, again as a sole entrant, but the season ended prematurely with a severe crash at Long Beach which left him paralysed below the waist. Regazzoni’s string of defeats are offset by the fact that four of his teammates appear in the top 20 in these rankings.

47: Valtteri Bottas

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 91.45 2017 92.20 37.50%

Opponents: Maldonado (2013), Massa (2014-16), Hamilton (2017-18)

Bottas’ first season in cars was in 2007, in Formula Renault 2.0 NEC, where he placed third in the championship. He followed up in his second season by taking the title, as well as the Renault 2.0 Eurocup. For 2009, he moved to the Formula 3 Euroseries, taking 3rd place again. He remained at the same level in 2010, taking third place again, but attracted the attention of Williams, acting as their test driver. In 2011, he won the GP3 title at the first attempt, and remained as Williams test driver for 2011 and 2012. Bottas performed creditably in his debut Formula One season in 2013, losing to the more experienced Maldonado, having spent a year on the sidelines as a test driver . His learning curve is demonstrated by turning that defeat into a victory over the massively more experienced Massa in the following season. Over three years, the two drivers were closely matched, despite the gulf in experience, with Bottas departing on a high having beaten Massa 10-7 in their third season as teammate. This momentum carried through to 2017, where he ran Hamilton a lot closer than many expected, losing in a relatively narrow 11-8 defeat. In 2018 however, he struggled more, slipping to a 10-3 pasting in one of Hamilton’s strongest seasons.

46: Wolfgang von Trips

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 92.47 1960 93.16 38.43%

Opponents: Musso (1957), Hawthorn (1958), Collins (1958), Hill P (1960-1), Mairesse (1960), Ginther (1960-61)

Born into the inter-war German nobility, von Trips began racing motorcycles in 1951 before switching to sports cars. By 1955 he had been picked up by the Mercedes team, but had to move again when Mercedes ceased racing after the 1955 Le Mans disaster. He switched to Porsche for 1956, but after several wins he moved again before the end of the season, to Ferrari. He debuted for Ferrari in Formula One in 1957, beating Musso in both counting races that year. Remaining in 1958, he beat new teammate Collins, but lost to Hawthorn, and lost his one counting race against Phil Hill. A broken leg at the Italian Grand Prix ended his season, and saw him spend 1959 at Porsche, with only one counting race. Returning to Ferrari in 1960, he was closely matched by Phil Hill over two seasons. A number of other drivers made appearances in the third car, with von Trips tying 1-1 with both Mairesse and Ginther in 1960, and beating Ginther 4-1 in 1961. On the verge of taking the title in 1961, von Trips was killed in a tragic accident at Monza, which claimed the lives of himself and 14 spectators.

45: John Watson

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 92.74 1979 93.65 38.67%

Watson began racing in Irish Formula Libre, before moving to British Formula 2 in 1970, taking several wins over four seasons. His debut at Formula One was in the non-championship Victory Race, which he won. For 1973, he debuted with Brabham in two races, and ran a full season in 1974 as the sole entrant for Hexagon. He spent most of 1975 as the sole entrant for Surtees, and 1976 as the only driver for Penske, taking his first win. For 1977, he finally had a benchmark, alongside Stuck at Brabham, beating the German 3-1 and tying with Pace. For 1978, he was partnered with Lauda, losing heavily. From 1979, he moved to McLaren, where he stayed for several seasons, against a carousel of teammates. 1979 saw him beat new teammate Tambay, but for 1980 the team promoted Prost to a race seat, with Watson losing 2-1. Prost moved on to Renault the following year, and Watson came out on top over new teammate de Cesaris in the first season for Ron Dennis at McLaren. In 1982 he was partnered with Lauda again, losing 5-1, but coming back to beat Lauda 3-2 the following season. Prost returned alongside Lauda in 1984, with Watson appearing only during Lauda’s absence at Brands Hatch.

44: Jean-Pierre Beltoise

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 92.75 1973 94.65 38.68%

Opponents: Stewart (1969), Servoz-Gavin (1969), Pescarolo (1970, 1974), Amon (1971), Ganley (1972), Lauda (1973), Regazzoni (1973), Migault (1974)

Beltoise entered car racing with a successful background in motorcycles, and agrounding as a mechanic for Rene-Bonnet, for whom he began racing sportscars in 1963. Success at Le Mans was followed by serious injury in 1964. On his return in 1965, he entered Formula 3, taking the French title. He combined F3 and F2 in 1966, taking third in the European Formula 2 championship in 1967, and making his debut in Formula One for the one-car Matra team. For 1968 he was again the sole Matra entrant in most grands prix, with no counting races against late-season teammate Pescarolo, and took the European Formula 2 title at the second attempt. In 1969, he drove for the Tyrrell-managed Matra International, where he was heavily beaten by champion teammate Stewart. With Tyrrell and Matra splitting for 1970, Beltoise defeated new teammate Pescarolo. Beltoise was losing to his next teammate Amon in 1971 when he was banned from racing for several months for his role in the death of Giunti. Returning with BRM in 1972, he tied with Ganley, and beat several unrated teammates in single races, including Helmut Marko. In 1973, he raced alongside Lauda and Regazzoni, losing respectably 2-1 the former, and beating the latter convincingly. A final season saw him beat Migault, and Pescarolo again.

43: Ralf Schumacher

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 92.84 2006 94.06 38.76%

Opponents: Fisichella (1997), Hill D (1998), Zanardi (1999), Button (2000), Montoya (2001-4), Trulli (2005-7)

Moving up from a successful karting career in 1992, Schumacher spent two seasons in German Formula Junior, placing second in the championship at the second attempt. For 1994, he stepped up to German Formula 3, taking a solid 3rd place in his debut season and 2nd the next year. In 1996, he ventured further afield, moving to Formula Nippon, and winning the title, the first rookie driver to do so. Schumacher’s successes brought him a test with McLaren in 1996, and a seat at Jordan for 1997. His two years at Jordan demonstrated development, with a narrow 6-4 loss to near-rookie Fisichella, followed by a tie with a fading Hill. For 1999, he switched to Williams and continued his trajectory with a clear success over a returning Zanardi, and a dominant season over debutant Button in 2000. Four seasons paired with Montoya followed, with Schumacher tying the first, but losing the remaining three as Montoya improved with experience. For 2005, Schumacher switched to Toyota, losing two out of three seasons against teammate Trulli.

42: Timo Glock

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 93.10 2009 93.88 38.99%

Opponents: Heidfeld (2004), Trulli (2008-9), di Grassi (2010), d’Ambrosio (2011), Pic (2012)

Glock’s career took a rather unusual path, but started with the standard junior open-wheel series, including titles in German Formula Junior and Formula BMW at the first attempt, and a debut third place in German Formula 3. A switch to the Formula 3 Euroseries was less successful, with a solid fifth place in the championship, and the following season Glock was parachuted into Jordan as a substitute for Pantano. He lost 2-0 to teammate Heidfeld in counting races, and failed to get a full-time seat. Instead, he switched to Champcar, managing only 8th in the series. A return to the European ladder saw him in GP2, taking 4th in 2006 despite switching teams mid season, and win the title in 2007. For 2008, Glock was back in Formula One, with Toyota. He lost 8-5 to the experienced Trulli in his first season back, but turned this into a 6-5 victory the next year. Toyota’s withdrawal left him with backmarkers Virgin, later Marussia, for another three seasons, where he dominated weaker drivers di Grassi, d’Ambrosio, and Pic.

41: Nick Heidfeld

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 93.49 2011 94.06 39.35%

Opponents: Alesi (2000), Raikkonen (2001), Massa (2002), Frentzen (2003), Glock (2004), Pantano (2004), Webber (2005), Villeneuve (2006), Kubica (2006-9), Kobayashi (2010), Petrov (2011)

Heidfeld was successful throughout his junior career, winning German Formula Ford at 1600 and 1800 levels, and German Formula 3, the first at the first attempt, and the others at the second try. The trend continued into International F3000, with a second place in 1998, and the championship in 1999. For 2000, Heidfeld was signed to race for Prost, where he tied with Alesi in a mechanically impacted season. A move to Sauber followed for three seasons, where he comfortably beat Raikkonen, Massa, and Frentzen, but lost to the latter on points, and was dropped in favour of Fisichella. A move to Jordan for 2004 saw him beat main teammate Pantano, and stand-in Glock. Having re-established himself in Formula One, he moved to Williams for 2005, tying with Webber but missing end of the season due to injury. Following BMW to Sauber, he beat new teammate Villeneuve, but lost to Villeneuve’s late season replacement, a debutant Robert Kubica. Kubica and Heidfeld remained teammates for the next three seasons, with Heidfeld winning in two of those. Left in the cold by BMW’s withdrawal from Formula One, he signed as reserve driver for Mercedes, then Pirelli test driver, before stepping back into Sauber as a late season replacement for de la Rosa. He lost to Kobayashi in the remaining races, and moved to Renault for 2011, where he beat Petrov 5-4, but was dropped before the end of the season.

Heidfeld faced a number of big names, but generally at stages in their career where they were not at their best – he faced Alesi, Frentzen and Villeneuve in the latter stages of their careers, and Raikkonen, Massa, and Kubica at the start of theirs. Only Webber in 2005 and Kubica in 2009 were reasonably ‘peak’ teammates. Despite this, Heidfeld beat the majority of his opponents. Had he been selected for the Mclaren seat in 2002, perhaps things might have turned out differently.

40: Jean Alesi

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 93.61 1993 94.48 39.45%

Opponents: Palmer (1989), Nakajima S (1990), Prost (1991), Larini (1992), Capelli (1992), Berger (1993-7), Wurz (1997), Herbert (1998), Diniz (1999), Heidfeld (2000), Burti (2001)

Unusually for a future Formula One driver, Alesi started out on his local rallying scene, before switching to Renault 5 Turbo. Lacking major backing, he entered French Formula 3 with a family team, taking the runner-up spot in 1986 and the title in 1987. Formula 3000 also took two seasons to master, with the title coming in 1989. The same year, he debuted in Formula One with Tyrrell. Alesi’s debut season was well regarded, putting in top-class performances in his midfield car, and easily beating teammate Palmer. A big move to Ferrari in his third season saw him outclassed by Prost, but he despatched lesser opponents comprehensively the following season. Alesi was closely matched with Berger in their five seasons together at Ferrari and Benetton, beating him three times, but losing by greater margins in the other two. After outperforming Herbert and Diniz, Alesi did less well in his last two seasons, failing to beat the weaker Burti and debutant Heidfeld.

39: Sergio Perez

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 93.65 2016 91.83 39.49%

Opponents: Kobayashi (2011-12), Button (2013), Hulkenberg (2014-16), Ocon (2017-18)

Moving to Germany after a stint in the Skip Barber series, Perez spent two seasons in Formula BMW with limited success. He took the rookie class title in British Formula 3, but only managed 4th in the main series the following year. His career began to gain momentum in GP2, where he placed 2nd at the 2nd attempt. A move to Sauber for 2011 followed, where he showed good pace, despite losing to Kobayashi in both seasons at the team. For 2013, he was selected by McLaren to fill the gap left by Hamilton’s move to Mercedes, but he struggled against the experienced Button. A move to Force India followed, where he has remained since. A close defeat to Hulkenberg perhaps indicates a dip in morale after his McLaren experience, as he came back to beat the German in both following seasons. After Hulkenberg’s departure, Perez maintained his form against Ocon, who was in his first full season in F1, but appears to have been left a step behind by Ocon’s development in 2018.

38: Jarno Trulli

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 93.93 2004 97.12 39.74%

Opponents: Katayama (1997), Nakano (1997), Panis (1998-9), Frentzen (2000-1), Button (2002), Alonso (2003-4), Schumacher R (2005-7), Glock (2008-9), Kobayashi (2009), Kovalainen (2010-11)

Trulli’s fairly long career pitted him against several top talents, including Alonso and Button, as well as drivers that were tipped for the top, such as Panis, Ralf Schumacher and Frentzen. He began his racing career in Italian Formula 3, with relatively little success, but found his feet in the German equivalent two years later. He finished second in Macau at the end of the season, and came back to win the German F3 season at the second attempt in 1996. After only two full seasons in single-seater racing, he found himself placed at Minardi in Formula One for 1997, where he beat Katayama 2-0, before switching to Prost mid-season as a replacement for the injured Panis, and beating new teammate Nakano 3-2. He remained with Prost for two full seasons, beating the well-regarded but post-injury Panis in both. With the team’s performance not improving, he moved to Jordan for 2000, narrowly losing to Frentzen, but winning by the same narrow margin in 2001. A move to his former F3 backers Benetton, now Renault, followed for 2002, where he convincingly beat Button. The British driver was replaced for 2003 with another up and coming talent, Alonso. Trulli performed well, losing only 10-8 to Alonso over two seasons, but was nevertheless unceremoniously dumped from Renault before the end of 2004, which rates as his best season. Moving to Toyota before the end of the season, he remained there for five seasons. For the first three, he was paired with Ralf Schumacher, and beat the German driver in two out of three of these. Schumacher was replaced with Glock for 2008, with Trulli winning the teammate battle, but Glock leading the following season. The withdrawal of Toyota from F1 resulted in Trulli taking a seat with Lotus, later rebranded Caterham, where he was defeated in both seasons by Kovalainen. He remained associated with the team in 2012 for pre-season testing, but made no further appearances.

37: Denny Hulme

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 94.06 1968 95.05 39.86%

Opponents: Brabham (1966-7), Mclaren (1968-9), Gethin (1971), Redman (1972), Revson (1972-3), Scheckter (1973), Fittipaldi (1974), Hobbs (1974), Hailwood (1974).

Starting out as much as mechanic as a driver, Hulme raced in local events in New Zealand from the age of 20, breaking through at the national level in 1959, and winning a scholarship to race in Europe. A string of good performances in Formula Junior saw him make a debut in a non-championship Formula One race at Snetterton. Over the next seasons Hulme ran a split calendar between the Gold Star championship, and later the Tasman Cup, in New Zealand, and the Formula Junior schedule in Europe, where he took second overall in 1964, and signed to race for Brabham. Hulme made a few appearances in F1 cars in 1965, and raced full-time from 1966. Hulme was soundly beaten by Brabham in his debut season, but came back to tie 4-4 the next year, even with the pressure of a title race. He dominated new teammate McLaren in 1968, but lost heavily in 1969. Hulme’s mid season injury and McLaren’s fatal crash in 1970 leave little basis for comparison that season. Now team leader, Hulme dominated Gethin in 1971, and beat Revson in 1972. 1973 was less successful, with Revson leading the teammate battle 7-3, although both drivers outmatched third teammate Scheckter. In 1974, Hulme lost heavily to new teammate Fittipaldi, but beat the other drivers that occupied the third McLaren, Hailwood, Hobbs and Mass.

36: Rene Arnoux

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 94.20 1982 95.01 39.99%

Opponents: Jabouille (1979-80), Prost (1981-2), Tambay (1983), Alboreto (1984), Alliot (1986), Laffite (1986), Ghinzani (1987), Grouillard (1989)

Arnoux developed his racing in the European Formula Renault series, taking the title in 1973 and 1975, debuting in Formula 2 in between. He returned to Formula 2 full-time in 1976, taking 2nd in the championship that year, and the title in 1977. His first appearances in Formula came in 1978, with outings for Martini and Surtees, before he signed with Renault to run full-time in 1979. Poor reliability was a concern, but he was outmatched by more experienced Jabouille in his debut season, coming back to a tie in 1980. Two seasons followed against Prost, clearly a major talent, but still early in his Formula One career. Prost took both seasons head-to-head, but in a close battle. Having shown himself unwilling to let title-contender Prost through, Arnoux switched to Ferrari for 1983, beating Tambay. 1984 was less successful, with a heavy loss to Alboreto, and he was released by Ferrari at the end of the season. Sitting out 1985, he moved to Ligier for the next four seasons, struggling to beat a series of less well-regarded drivers.

35: Jose Froilan Gonzalez

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 94.36 1951 95.09 40.13%

Opponents: Taruffi (1951), Ascari (1951), Villoresi (1951), Bonetto (1952), Fangio (1953), Maglioli (1954)

Gonzalez arrived in Formula One in 1950 from the Argentine domestic scene, and set a reputation for a fast pace and errors, and he was signed to Ferrari by the middle of 1951. His first counting races, in 1951, show him beating Villoresi and Taruffi, but losing to Ascari. For 1952, he switched to Maserati, but took part in only one Grand Prix. Over 1952-3, he beat Bonetto 2-0, but lost to Fangio by the same margin. He also beat compatriots Marimon and Galvez in cameo appearances. In 1954, he returned to Ferrari, beating his most frequent teammate Maglioli 3-0, and beating both Hawthorn and Trintignant in single races, but losing to Farina. He appeared in single races for Maserati and Vandervell in 1956, finishing neither, and one race for Ferrari in both 1957 and 1960. In his sole appearance in 1957, he beat teammates Collins, von Trips, and Perdisa.

Gonzalez’ relatively short career, and the sporadic nature of his teammate pairings make an eyeball assessment of his talent difficult, but the model weights his victories over Villoresi and Maglioli.

34: Kamui Kobayashi

Peak rating Best Season Highest rating win chance vs peak Hamilton 94.53 2010 90.37 40.29%

Opponents: Trulli (2009), Heidfeld (2010), de la Rosa (2010), Perez (2011-2), Ericsson (2014)

Kobayashi placed a respectable third in his first season in junior racing, in Formula Toyota, before moving to Europe. A difficult season in 2004 saw him only 7th in Italian Renault 2.0, but the following year he won both the Italian and European series. Two seasons in the Formula 3 Euroseries followed, with a 4th place in 2007 combined with a test role for Toyota in Formula One. Less success was to be had in GP2, where he took the Asian series, but managed only 16th in two attempts at the main series. Nevertheless, Toyota brought him in as a race driver to finish the 2009 season when Glock was injured, and he beat teammate Trulli in both races. Kobayashi was picked u