As I woke up late afternoon at my friend’s place, the Turkish coup d’etat was in its infancy. I had thought that after a long day looking through the Nice attack in France, I would have a fairly less eventful day. I expected to see politicians around the world condemning it, Muslim scholars declaring the man to be anti-Islamic, and a few arrests by the French security services. Boy was I wrong.

I woke up to find that the two bridges of Turkey had been closed and the military had planned a coup against the President. It was a surprise….but to say that I had never seen a coup like that before would be a lie. Turkey has had its history of coups, and Pakistan (my neighbor in India) has only had coups in their history. While it initially appeared that the Turkish democracy (or whatever was left of it after Erdogan’s election) was in danger, by evening the coup had fallen apart and Erdogan very casually walked back into Istanbul. That was probably one of the most pathetic coup attempts I had seen not because because it didn’t succeed, but because an army as capable as the Turkish army had shown how clueless their planning was and how weak their execution of coup was. This is not to say I welcomed the coup, but to stay I like Erdogan would be the same as saying that Iran loves Israel. Keeping my frustrations with the Turkish president aside, I was very skeptical of how the whole coup was organized.

Usually when a coup is executed, the President has always been in the country so as to prevent him from seeking asylum elsewhere and try to call the shots. Erdogan was off on a “vacation” when the coup happened…..and the Turkish military had to know this. Knowing this, their execution of the coup when the President was out of country seems too convenient for Erdogan. I have had suspicions that the whole coup was organized from within the government or rather….at least encouraged by the government at a small scale to consolidate Erdogan’s rule. BOOOOOM!!! Conspiracy theory!!! “Wow Ricky, I thought you were conspiracy-theory proof!”

HOLD ON TO THAT THOUGHT MATE

I have never been against conspiracy theories as long as they have some sort of logic and evidence. That is not to say that I believe in them, but I give them a fair thought. If you do the same, I would try to convince you why this is the most logical explanation to the coup.

Why would Erdogan state a coup to put his authority in danger?

“You see things; and you say ‘why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say ‘why not?'” -George Bernard Shaw

Quotes aside, this is a very valid question. However one has to look back into Turkish history to find the answer. Characters like Erdogan aren’t new in Turkey. Erbakan was basically similar to Erdogan and wanted to make Turkey an Islamic country, driving it away from its secular roots that Ataturk has established. However, in 1997 the army had decided that enough is enough and told him to leave. The army’s threat was so powerful that the Prime Minister stepped down almost instantly. He left and mentored many other Islamist politicians, one of whom became more famous than others: Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan was a member of Erbakan’s Fazilet Partisi and stayed there until it was banned in 2001 by Turkish Constitutional Court because it violated the secularist articles in the constitution. Erdogan left and made a new party after ‘Fazilet Partisi’ was dissolved. That new party was called Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi.Yes, the same party that is currently in power.

Erdogan very well knew that Turkish army could overthrow him whenever they wanted if he took his version of political jihad too far. As such, it would in his interest to clip the wings of the army in order to establish his own authority over the country. After all, he had seen an Islamist leader ousted from power by the army. A small coup attempt when he was out of the country is very convenient as it poses no direct threat to him. As such, the plan was executed the way it was planned and Erdogan casually walks into Istanbul and establishes his image as the “Great Leader”, the greatest since Suleiman….a man who challenged and won against the Army. Not only does his move give him political victory, it also improves his image in front of his supporters, and allows him to garner support from his own political rivals when he passes laws to reduce army’s power. Prior to that, he had already shut many news channels and reporting agencies that spoke against him, imprisoned journalists who challenged his authority, censored Internet by blocking social media, engaged in electoral fraud to win majority seats during elections, and violated many human rights. The list is long enough to keep me awake for the entire night that tell tales of Erdogan trying to revive the Ottoman Sultanate but that is not the premise of this blog, hence, I will discuss those some other day. In simple terms, however, one may call him Turkey’s Putin.

What is the future from here on?

The future of Turkey looks pretty bleak from a western point of view, however, that is not necessarily true from Turkish point of view. I do not know a lot about how Turkish society thinks (I must admit), as such, I will just base my opinion off numbers.

Considering the fact that Erdogan won almost 52% of the votes, I do not think Turkish people want secularism. I think they would rather accept a Pakistan-esque Turkey that has democracy, but with Islam as its main centerpiece. After a “failed” coup attempt, it is likely that Erdogan will try to pass laws that reduce the army’s powers and try to bring back the death penalty. Turkey’s membership in EU is almost impossible, as such it feels like Erdogan will try to just go with his own agenda. Press and personal freedoms will be severely restricted so a future coup isn’t possible. This will give Erdogan more power, and enough to make sure that future elections only have one outcome….AKP victory.

I foresee Turkey being closer to Islamic countries of the Gulf and Pakistan. As relations between Pakistan and US deteriorate, Turkey would be that partner that could invest in Pakistani programs and development. China also plays a part in this, but their support creates dissonance in Islamic Republic’s supporters. On one hand they are supporting China, but on the other hand China is persecuting Muslims. This is not the case with T urkey who is supporting jihad in Iraq and Syria by providing support to ISIS (1).

It would be important to see how the Turkish public reacts to their future. They deserve what Erdogan brings because they had a chance and they chose him. It would also be interesting to see if US and its allies learned from their mistakes in Pakistan or would they rather chose to repeat them again with Turkey.