On 13 October there will be parliamentary elections in Poland and local elections in Hungary. Both countries are being ruled by Eurosceptic populist governments that have opted for significant systemic change. Jarosław Kaczyński, the de facto leader of Poland, has promised to build “Budapest in Warsaw” and by 2019 he has succeeded in part.

The recently published election program of PiS is a populist manifesto and highlights potential similarities with the approach taken by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. As we have pointed out before, the two leaders have depicted their opponents as traitors, who are collaborating with the European Union in order to undermine the sovereign will of the “pure people” in Poland and Hungary.

A strong anti-imperialist theme prevails in the discourse by claiming that the West is harbouring colonial sentiments towards Central Europe.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and PiS-chairman Poland Jarosław Kaczyński are Eurosceptic to the extent that they question the institutional trajectory of ever deeper integration, advocate a Europe of nation states and disagree with a range of common EU policies. They both increasingly equate the EU with “the corrupt elite” and contrast it with “the pure people” of Hungary and Poland, whom they and their governments can only truly represent.

Furthermore, the above-mentioned antagonism between the corrupt Brussels elite and the honest people increasingly mirrors a nationalist, anti-imperialist struggle of the Hungarian and Polish nations against the EU.

Postcolonial sovereignty

There is nothing new in the fact that PiS supports a Europe of nation states with a strong pro-sovereign approach. Nevertheless, ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, PiS took a step further and not only rejected the allegedly “uncontrolled” erosion of national sovereignty, but also promised to introduce strong legal barriers against it on the domestic level.

Their election manifesto says “This is our Eurorealism” without further details on how they would change the integration process.

The issue of national sovereignty has been embedded into a broader discussion on the rule of law in both countries. In the past, Kaczyński claimed there was “an attack from within and without” – referring to the EU and the domestic opposition – against PiS’ system-transforming efforts.

While the PiS manifesto does not name former Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his party, Civic Platform, it openly depicts the opposition as colonial agents who are earnestly serving the interests of the European Union.

Orbán has employed a similarly combatant tone in his rebuttal against criticism coming from the EU, with regard to the new constitution. He has linked the domestic opposition with the EU, both allegedly conspiring against the Hungarian nation. Although his Eurosceptic and populist narrative has become increasingly one-dimensional, there is also a strong anti-imperialist connotation. Just like Kaczyński, he depicts Western European countries as immoral for their exploitative, colonial past and claims they harbour colonialist sentiments towards Central European countries.

Permanent need for enemies

Although previously it was rather Orbán who channelled his Euroscepticism through a discourse on migration, Kaczyński also has become very critical towards the EU. He stresses that Europe is decadent and arrogant, and suicidal in its embrace of Islam. But in terms of difference, it is the Hungarian Prime Minister who claims that every rule of law-based criticism is an attempt to condemn Hungary for its harsh anti-immigrant stance, an uncommon argument within the Polish government.

Moreover, the Orbán government has spent 216 million euros on campaigns against Soros and the EU. Although the current Hungarian campaign is tuned down due to the bargaining procedure within the newly composed bodies of the EU, the regime has a permanent need for external enemies.

While Hungarian and Polish societies are still outstandingly pro-EU , it is worth considering that the migration issue can overshadow many of the EU’s achievements and benefits, such as the free movement of persons and the abolishment of border controls.

Criticism can be constructive for the integration process, yet it is the authoritarian feature of populism in the above mentioned discourses that poses a systemic threat to the EU.

As Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have written in their book How Democracies Die, two norms stand out as fundamental to a functioning democracy: mutual toleration and institutional forbearance. The former refers to the idea that – as long as our rivals play by constitutional rules – we have to accept that they have an equal right to exist, compete for power and govern. Despite mutual disagreement and strong antipathy, we have to accept them as legitimate. As Levitsky and Ziblatt put it, “it is politicians’ collective willingness to agree or disagree”.

They rightfully remind us that in every case of democratic breakdown, would-be autocrats have justified their consolidation of power by labelling their opponents as an existential threat.

The approach of Orbán and Kaczyński is authoritarian not only because they reject pluralism and depict critical actors independent of these governments as enemies of the state. The Hungarian government has rewritten the constitution seven times to capture the state’s referees, to create a grossly uneven playing field, favouring Fidesz, and to restrict civil society, the opposition and the independent media. Besides corruption and political selective law enforcement, the Hungarian government is systematically abusing its power to hinder the opposition to be elected.

Playing hardball

Institutional forbearance means not using all the tools that you can technically and legally use in politics. While it is not in the nature of the Polish government to do so, it is rapidly shifting in the same authoritarian direction.

The government plays constitutional hardball and openly violates the legal order. Polish judges are targeted by organised hate campaigns on social media, with the involvement of representatives of the Ministry of Justice.

Furthermore, PiS just proposed a law to establish a new self-regulatory body for the media with enough power to allow the liquidation of defamation laws. They would also suspend parliamentary immunity, stating that Polish MPs should be detained at the request of the prosecutor general, currently Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro.

Despite minor concessions made to Brussels, both Orbán and Kaczyński are keen to protect the majority of efforts to maintain their authoritarian systems. Apparently, neither of them will stop there. The EU should be careful before accepting this infamous “peacock dance”, relying on symbolic compliance and cooperation. Especially now that European People’s Party’s caucus leader Manfred Weber is intensely lobbing for Orbán’s nominee for the post of commissioner.

Weber claims László Trócsányi must be given a fair treatment. As former Minister of Justice, Trócsányi was in charge of most of the human rights concerns raised in the Sargentini report . However, he could get the humanitarian aid and enlargement portfolio, which is ironic in two ways.

On the one hand, his government practically has criminalised all humanitarian aid in Hungary by means of the Stop Soros legislative package. This lets asylum seekers starve at the Hungarian-Serbian border. On the other hand, Trócsányi would be in charge of the integration of the Western Balkans, after the Orbán government has provided diplomatic asylum to Nikola Gruevski, a convicted politician from North Macedonia.

Should the EU allow itself one more round of appeasement tactics, there exists the risk that it will irrevocably undermine all of its remaining credibility. This can only benefit the Eurosceptic forces in the long run.

This article is part of the #DemocraCE project.