Article content continued

Kenney was viewed as more pro-business and more likely to bring back jobs and investment.

Voters said they were ready for a more confrontational approach under their new premier and expected immediate and decisive action.

Two key elements to this will be challenging the federal government’s imposition of a carbon tax and reducing the corporate tax rate. Hatcher said focus group participants did not quibble with the concept of climate change but felt Alberta’s best route to reducing overall emissions would be to supply markets in Asia heavily dependent on coal. “Albertans feel we can play a role by providing energy that is cleaner and more ethical than other places … that it could be part of the transition,” he said. Kenney’s Bill 1 will repeal Notley’s carbon tax and introduce the UCP’s replacement Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) Fund.

Environmentalists would take issue with the idea that the oilsands are cleaner or more ethical — thanks to improved technology, per-barrel emissions have fallen 30 per cent since 2000 but remain higher than most conventional crude.

Yet there was no support in the focus groups for a carbon tax. In common with many other Canadians, there is widespread opposition to a tax that is seen as “making everything more expensive.”

Despite being on opposite sides of the carbon tax debate, there could yet be an alignment of interests between Kenney and Trudeau, if the federal government endorses the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline in June. It would, said the Navigator study, be a “clear win-win scenario” that would allow Kenney to arrive at the Calgary Stampede “a conquering hero.”

Yet Hatcher warned even that would not pacify Albertans because the expectation is it won’t happen. “They remain sceptical, so an announcement would not cut it. They want to see shovels in the ground,” he said.

As the study makes clear, Alberta’s disenchantment with Confederation is the distemper of our time.

• Email: jivison@nationalpost.com | Twitter: IvisonJ