An extra 71,000 care home spaces are needed in the next eight years to cope with Britain’s soaring demand as people living longer face more health problems, a study has found.

New research predicts there will be an additional 353,000 older people with complex needs by 2025, requiring tens of thousands more beds.

The findings from a team of academics at Newcastle University, published in the Lancet medical journal, revealed that many people over the age of 65 are now living longer but with substantial care needs.

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The number of people needing round-the-clock help to feed and dress themselves is predicted to rise by 163,000. For adults over 65 the number of years spent with substantial care needs has doubled between 1991 and 2011.

The paper’s lead author, Prof Carol Jagger from Newcastle University, said: “The past 20 years have seen continued gains in life expectancy but not all of these years have been healthy ... this finding, along with increased number of older adults with higher rates of illness and disability, is contributing to the current social care crisis.” Jagger called for more prevention work to be done to make sure people get support early on.

Margaret Willcox, president of the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services, said findings showed the “urgent need” to look at how care is funded. She added: “Unless a long-term sustainable solution is established to tackle significant sector pressures … [more people] will struggle to receive personal, dignified care.”

The authors highlighted the burden on family and friends who provide unpaid care in their community and the need to train professionals to care for older adults with complex needs.

In 1991, 73.5% of adults aged 85 years who needed 24-hour care were living in a care home, compared with about half in 2011.

Neil Tester, deputy director of Healthwatch England said that the figures did not come as a shock but paint a picture of the “stark reality we all now face.”



“At Healthwatch we know from what people tell us every day that the care sector is already in a fragile state, and it is clear these daunting challenges aren’t going away. As a country we have some really big questions to face about how we plan and fund care.”

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As part of the paper academics looked at care needs of a total of 15,000 people in England in the years 1991 and 2011. Based on needs, and assuming that rates of dependency remained the same, the academics estimated that there would be an extra 190,000 older people with “medium dependency” – for example, needing help preparing a meal – by 2025 compared with 2013. The number of people with high dependency, needing round-the-clock care, would rise by 163,000.

The findings come after a report released on Monday warned that one in six care home companies is in danger of insolvency.

Andrew Dilnot, warden of Nuffield College at Oxford University and author of the 2011 Dilnot commission report into care funding, said: “Expenditure on the care of older people will need to increase substantially and quickly. It will be important to ensure that this expenditure is managed efficiently, and in particular that the boundary between health and care is well handled.”

A Department of Health spokesperson said that Care Quality Commission data showed there were 459,049 beds in 2010 compared to 460,186 beds 2016. “High quality care isn’t just about care home beds – 61% of people are cared for in their own home and since 2010 there has been a growth in home care agencies of more than 2,900. We’ve given local authorities in England an extra £2bn boost over the next three years to maintain access for our growing ageing population and to put the social care sector on a sustainable footing for the future.”