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But how likely are these? Not very. Ruddy views LeBreton as a signature project that could cement his legacy as a hometown developer.

Senators’ insiders for years have reported Melnyk has no interest in selling the team. By turning down an offer of $430 million US plus — about the same as the latest valuation estimated by Forbes Magazine — he is making it clear buying the Senators would be an expensive proposition.

Consider that a hypothetical new owner would have to shell out, say, $450 million US for the team and current arena in Kanata. Then there’s another $500 million US for the new arena in LeBreton. That’s nearly $1 billion. And, while the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs are each valued by Forbes at more than $1.3 billion U.S., those teams generate nearly twice as much revenue each year and more than fifty times the operating income.

Of course, Melnyk could choose to pay commercial rent to the owner of the new arena. But in his litigation against Ruddy, Melnyk was not prepared to consider anything more than nominal rent — $1 per year.

Much of Melnyk’s litigation reflects his view that Ruddy’s participation in a nearby apartment-and-offices development at 900 Albert St. is undercutting the economics of RendezVous LeBreton.

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As mediator, Winkler will have to sort out whether Melnyk is simply engaging in hardball bargaining or whether his economic interests really are being harmed.

A complicating factor has been the relative tightness of Melnyk’s cash flow. When he acquired the Ottawa Senators out of bankruptcy in 2003, he paid $100 million CAD for the team and $27.5 million CAD for the arena. At the time, the value of his shares in Biovail — the pharmaceutical company he founded in 1989 — were worth more than $1.6 billion CAD.