Current Geopolitical Situation

In November 2018, PM Netanyahu’s Defense Minister, Avigdor Lieberman quit the coalition due to the cabinet’s decision to accept a ceasefire ending two days of fighting with Palestinian militants in Gaza after missile were launched in retaliation to the failed intelligence spy mission.

With the coalition on the brink of collapse, PM Netanyahu did his best to prevent a re-election in the face of on-going conflict on all sides. However, on December 24th, 2018, the Knesset was officially dissolved and a resolution to hold the next election on April 9th, 2019 was passed.

This had to be done due to the Haredi Enlistment Bill being passed, which was seen as a way to divert funding towards the Yeshivas by the then Finance Minister, Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid party. Tethering on a small majority of 61–59, the coalition was dissolved when Yair Lapid backed out.

Adding to the issues prevailing on the international front, the country is at the time being artificially divided by PM Netanyahu after he released campaign ads portraying Likud as being right, while his opponents being left and soft on the issue of defense (with no substantial data to substantiate his claims).

President Trump’s efforts on imposing tariffs on Iran in 2018 was side-stepped by three European nations (Britain, France & Germany) who set up a new company Instex (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) to allow trading among the nations. To thwart these efforts, the Warsaw Conference was convened which was snubbed by all high ranking officials of Arab and European nations (except Israel), in retaliation to Trump backing off from the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. This situation was further exacerbated by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent comments on twitter equating the meet to be a ‘call to arms’, further escalating the prevailing tense situation.

Prime Minster Netanyahu is also accused of corruption, and stands accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust contracts by the Israeli Police in regards to granting regulatory favors to Israeli telecom giant Bezeq in exchange for flattering news coverage of himself on a website owned by the telecom company. The trail will not happen until after the elections.

At the present moment, Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be somewhat vulnerable; after the 400 rockets launched by Gaza, growing discontent amongst the population with regards to rising prices (in food, electricity and gas) and the level of corruption being perceptible to the general public.

Despite everything, he still seems to be the only viable candidate to be capable of securing a majority in the upcoming elections with his primary opponent being Benjamin Gantz who has built a political platform with no experience in forming coalitions, and an alliance with Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid. However, according polls taken in February, it would seem that he would still need to win over the Kingmaker Parties for additional support in the parliament.