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The biggest of the allies doesn't just have a disagreement with us, but he actually seems willing to walk away

“The biggest of the allies doesn’t just have a disagreement with us, but he actually seems willing to walk away,” said Tomas Valasek, a former Slovak ambassador to NATO who runs Carnegie Europe, a Brussels think tank. “Deterrence has already been broken.”

Such sentiments are based on Trump’s words and actions in recent weeks, as he has more fully embraced his own plate-breaking instincts on foreign policy after a first year of being held back by more conventional aides. Few believe that Trump would actually withdraw from NATO — at minimum, they think he would be restrained by Republican partners in Congress. But they worry about moves that could initiate an unraveling.

Europeans fear a repeat of last month’s Group of Seven summit in Canada, when Trump fought with leaders of Washington’s closest allies, then withheld his signature from the bromide-filled declaration that comes out of such meetings as a matter of course.

Photo by Matt Dunham / AP

Only this time, there could be immediate security implications.

“It’s one thing if he goes to the G7 and is rude to people,” a senior NATO diplomat said. “It’s another thing to derail NATO.” The diplomat, like some of the other officials and policymakers quoted in this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to explain sensitive diplomatic thinking.

Europeans are “scared” that Trump could trigger a crisis, said another senior European official, adding an off-colour word for emphasis.

Trump has already said he is looking for a fight.