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Jamie Vardy is defying logic to sit pretty at the top of the Premier League’s goalscoring charts, but he might not be able to stay there.

That is not to discount how brilliant the Leicester City talisman has been this campaign.

Strikers, particularly those who count pace among their best attributes, are supposed to decline in their 30s.

But that has not stopped Vardy, 33 in January, becoming the first player this season to reach double figures for league goals.

He’s done it before renowned elite finishers of the game like Sergio Aguero and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. He’s done it before the golden boys of English football such as Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and Tammy Abraham.

Ten goals in 11 games this season does not tell the full story either.

He now has 19 goals in 21 league matches for Brendan Rodgers. Under the new boss, he’s averaged nearly a goal a game for half a season. That is astonishingly good form, and Rodgers has quite rightly labelled him as “one of the best in Europe”.

The Northern Irishman’s tactics have played a part. Vardy no longer has to press the whole of the opposition’s back four by himself – Rodgers is encouraging the wingers and midfielders to get involved too.

Vardy is also being told to stay central and not veer into the flanks so regularly. Rodgers wants him in the most dangerous area – the penalty box – as often as possible.

Everything is geared towards creating chances for Vardy, and as a result, he is having fewer touches of the ball than under Claude Puel, whose focus was on the team. The Frenchman therefore expected Vardy to drop deeper to link play.

Not that Vardy has stopped doing that completely. His game intelligence, link-up play and first touch are underrated elements of his game and he’s looked sharper in all of those areas this season.

That can perhaps be attributed to his England retirement, with Vardy able to enjoy a full summer’s break and pre-season for the first time since 2014.

Add all that up and you have a genuine contender for the Golden Boot. However, there’s a catch: Vardy’s form is unsustainably good.

He tops the scoring charts with 10 goals from 21 shots, a conversion rate of 48 per cent. That’s the most clinical in the league by some distance. Of players to have had at least 12 shots, Aubameyang is second on 38 per cent.

A scoring rate of 48 per cent is also way higher than Vardy’s average. In the title winning campaign, he scored 24 goals from 115 shots, a conversion rate of 21 per cent. In the three following seasons, his conversion rate was 25 per cent, 28 per cent and 23 per cent.

You could perhaps suggest that City have been creating simpler chances for Vardy to finish.

But the expected goals measure says that is not the case. Calculating the likelihood of a goal being scored based on where the shot was taken and the move leading up to the effort, Vardy’s chances add up to a total of 4.52 expected goals. That’s the 16th highest in the league, behind all the usual suspects as well as the likes of Neal Maupay and Chris Wood.

(Image: Getty Images)

City fans know Vardy is a superb finisher and there is no doubt that he can prove the pundits wrong and continue to improve.

But a 48 per cent conversion rate is too big an improvement to sustain when your average is 22 per cent.

City either need to create more chances for their number nine or be ready for his golden touch to falter.