This is a spot I try and be a bit witty from time to time, but today……let’s drop a pearl. Keith will be fading all Lakers today. I had to ask why because they felt cheap and were playing the Nuggets. He said, “They played last night, are traveling into altitude, and it’s an hour’s drive from the airport once they land.” I thought that was good enough for me, and not something I’d have otherwise researched. I mean, how often do you research the drive from the airport? On an 11-game slate, I’m looking for ways to cut this list down, so I’ll take that one for what it’s worth.

****Reminder….All picks can change leading up to 7 pm ET as we get more news opening up****

After glancing at the Morning Briefing, I hope you have some targets picked out that appear to be in successful fantasy producing spots. Let’s roll out the position picks for each position, along with some bonus picks at the end. These are picks Keith likes for a variety of reasons. They are not necessarily the “top option on the board,” “chalk options,” “highest scoring,” “GPP only,” or whatever other moniker you want to assign. These are Keith’s favorite options when combining all of these factors….

The graphics you are looking at is a rolling 30-day snapshot indicating average performance above/below expected points along with a percentage of times said player has exceeded projections. The blue line indicates fluctuations in salary over the same 30-day time frame. The bar graph shows how far above/below a particular date resulted vs expected production.

**We primarily use a trend created for spotting both value and performance. Our Dominator trend has performed solidly at predicting a player’s tendency to outperform his expectations with right at 2/3 consistency, back tested in over 800 separate events from the 2015-16 season. Past results on 02/29/2016 pulled players like Giannis, Favors, Middleton, and Kyrie Irving. We have tightened the trend even a little more to further identify these players for you. Everyone pulled from the Dominator trend is on the cheatsheets for you to use at will.**

Now, your starting 5….

PG – Mike Conley ($6800)

15 gm slash – 32.4 FD pts/gm – 14.8/3.5/7.2 – With Memphis playing SAC, Conley has the one of the best matchups tonight at the PG spot. His ownership should take a hit with putting up a relative dud last time out. As always in the Army, we like to take advantage of recency bias like this. Conley is paced up like crazy tonight and has been testing his ceiling with regularity. Due to this, he is still well underpriced and could easily push the best “point per dollar” value at the PG position.

SG – Khris Middleton ($7900)

15 gm slash – 34.8 FD pts/gm – 19.9/4.9/4.5 and a couple steals – With MIL playing fantastic ball lately, Khris Middleton has been a key catalyst in their offense. He is the type of player we love to target because he does more than just score buckets, as you can see from his slash line posted. As a result, his consistency is high as is his ability to break his ceiling when all cylinders are firing. It just might happen tonight with Paul George dealing with Giannis tonight. More quality looks might open up as a result tonight.

SF – Jae Crowder ($6400)

15 gm slash – 27.6 FD pts/gm – 14.6/5.2/2.1 – We are seeing a common theme, but Jae Crowder is another grossly underpriced player on FanDuel for his role in his offense. He is another that contributes in all categories on a nightly basis and never disappoints based on pure hustle alone. Crowder is a cerebral mind, with a great bubble, and a high motor. With the likes of Giannis, George, Kawhi, and Durant on tonight’s slate, Crowder might easily go under 10% owned in GPPs.

PF – Zach Randolph ($6600)

15 gm slash – 28.3 FD pts/gm – 16.1/7.3/2.4 – Randolph might not be the guy to ever blow your mind with numbers, but he’s about as consistent as they come. He is locked into his minutes and can get you 35-40 fantasy points in the right matchup. Game log watchers will go back to his Jan 30 matchup vs the Kings, see only 18 fantasy points, and run the other way faster than a man carrying a tv when the cops show up. It should be noted Marc Gasol played that game; don’t fall into this trap. ZBo is a fine play.

C – Mason Plumlee ($5200)

15 gm slash – 22.8 FD pts/gm – 7.7/7.2/2.5 – It’s no secret by now we target the BOS bigs. Here’s your next chance. While Plumlee’s numbers look weird for the type of player we typically pick here, it’s the price he’s at along with the matchup and ability to test his ceiling we are after…….NOT the stat line he’s been dropping his past 15 games. The flexibility this gives your roster construction on a larger slate is of plenty value to you and your LU tonight.

Stud of the Night – Anthony Davis (PF – NOP)

Easily one of the best matchups on the night. Let’s hope he can avoid getting cold feet like approaching that hot girl in LiveLinks commercials if he ever met her in person. In his past 5 games, he has only been under 40 fantasy points once……..and we all know his upside. He is paced up a little bit and could easily be the top performer on the entire night at any position. *UPDATE* — As I write this, AD just became a GTD according to sources. Stay up to the minute on him by following us in Slack. If he winds up sitting due to actually calling that LiveLinks chick, Ryan Anderson is as automatic a play as anyone you will ever see.

Value of the Night – Lance Stephenson (SG – MEM)

We target SGs against the Kings with a passion. He has really gelled with his teammates and the personalities within the team. He is testing his upside in about 6 of the last 10 games since coming over and happens to draw one of the largest pace increases on the night. Of course his shot needs to fall as a SG, but lately we have no reason to believe he won’t provide plenty of value and flexibility in your construction.

GPP of the Night – Eric Gordon (SG – NOP)

We also target SGs agains Harden/HOU. Gordon should be overlooked due to playing only one game after coming off injury. The upside is there and price is right. There really isn’t a lot to say other than he draws a good matchup and there’s no reason to think Gordon can’t repeat what he did last time out.

“Brass Balls” Fade of the Night – DeMarcus Cousins (PF – SAC)

Boogie easily has the worst matchup of all our elite plays tonight. And, if I’m going to pay that much for someone, I’m going to be doing so in a faster paced game in not as deep a position. In fact, I’d rather roster James Harden twice, and you all know how I take shit for my feelings about Harden.

As always, Keith will be available in the Slack VIP Channel to update you on injury news, and how to pivot if need be….make sure to join in the conversation. He’s always open to answering questions, but if you are going to ask if you should play “Player X” over “Player Y” make sure you check the rankings on the cheat sheets before asking unless news has come out that could possibly change the situation. Thank you!

Cheat Sheets are condensed….remember, there will be players that are not on this sheet that go off. The goal here is to not overload you with a lot of combinations. Sure, I can put in 15 PG’s and 10 PF’s. And then say, “the winning lineup was on the Sheet” but that doesn’t help us. I’m giving you options at varying price points, so you can build varying types of lineup. I feel the last two months of the season, we will have better success by choosing from a smaller pool. LET’S MAKE THAT MONEY!!!

(Keith is superstitious as hell and has only hit the one cash optimized LU since posting it. He’s a pitcher at heart and is taking the opportunity to wash his socks today.)

Be sure to join in on the Slack conversation in the VIP section for up to the minute injury news and pivots.

Cheat Sheets:

Google Sheets

NBA Cheat Sheet

NBA Cheat Sheet FD PDF

NBA Cheat Sheet DK PDF

Good Luck Army!!!