Bonjour from Brussels! I’ve spent the day here to get a sense of the other side of May’s latest Brexit mayhem. I’m a keen Westminster watcher, not an EU expert (see @alexebarker @AlbertoNardelli @BrunoBrussels). But here are some outsider thoughts:

#1: Everyone I’ve spoken to is exasperated by both Theresa May and Britain’s general approach to Brexit. The EU thought it had a done deal. The PM led the Commission and member states to believe the withdrawal agreement would pass parliament. Trust has now all-but evaporated.

#2: Europe remains baffled by Westminster and how British politics operates. The lack of real cross-party co-operation, the ardent tribalism for example. Brady amendment is a case in point. It makes total sense from a Tory party perspective, but almost none from the EU.

#3: Westminster thinks May has a clear message to take to Brussels. EU thinks not. They want a concrete, specific request about to tweak the backstop - not assertions “it must change/go”. No one expecting movement by February 14, or even March 21st council meeting 😬

#4: Can May and the EU agree a codicil to the withdrawal agreement and the backstop? Probably, in some form. There remains a surprisingly amount of goodwill to help the PM avoid a crash exit.



But will it be enough to win around the DUP/ERG? That’s the €39bn question right now.

#5: Could the withdrawal agreement be amended as May has suggested? There’s little appetite from the European Commission as you’d expect. But I get the sense that some member states would be up for performing “surgical changes” if it was a deal breaker to avoid a crash Brexit.

#6: For member states to contemplate any changes to the withdrawal agreement, they would need a) clear proof that it could pass the Commons, b) agreement of @campaignforleo. Political declaration much easier.



The former could be achieved by more Commons amendments and votes.

#7: EU is ramping up preparations for a no-deal Brexit. There’s a general view that the UK could be granted a three month extension if a crash exit is on the horizon - to aid both sides. So the end of June, not March, is the cliff edge.

#8: To avoid the absolute worst no-deal impacts, Britain would have to pay much of its exit bill. That could encourage the EU/member states to take unilateral action to keep planes in the air, medicine moving etc. But make no mistake: UK would still become a 3rd country overnight

#9: A tale of two backstops. In Westminster it is the blighted idea that poisoned the Brexit talks and destroyed May’s deal in the Commons. In Brussels it is an insurance policy that no one realistically thinks will be used. It’s messy, complicated and only put in the deal by 🇬🇧

#10: No one I’ve spoken to is talking about the UK opting to stay in the bloc. Brexit is happening and the thought of an disgruntled, divided country remaining pleases few. Most folks want to see us leave in a smooth way and are focusing on building relationship from the outside.

#11: Am I optimistic the EU will help May? A little, but only within their red lines. They‘re not going to cave on Ireland, nor tear up the withdrawal deal. But if she can make a realistic specific request, she could, might just, find the ladder some Tories are looking for.

#12: I can fully recommend a quick trip to Brussels for all Westminster dwellers - a good perspective adjustment in these frantic times. It’s quicker and cheaper on the Eurostar than visiting my hometown Newcastle (indictment of British railways).

You can follow @SebastianEPayne.

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