By Adnan Khan

After years of bombing and months under siege the rebel defences in Aleppo have collapsed in the face of a wide-ranging government offensive. The people and rebels have now lost over 90% of their territory in eastern Aleppo throwing thousands of civilians and fighters into chaos. The escalating bombardment and attacks that have killed women and children trying to reach safe ground. Deepening rifts have developed among rebel groups and between fighters and civilians, over whether and how to surrender. Whilst the loss of Aleppo would be a significant blow to the rebels against the Bashar al-Assad regime it will not end the uprising in other parts of Syria.

For centuries, Aleppo was the region’s largest city and the Ottoman Caliphate’s third-largest, after Constantinople and Cairo. Before the uprising began in 2011, Aleppo was the country’s industrial and financial centre. The old city was a Unesco World Heritage site, and famous for its 13th Century citadel, 12th Century Great Mosque and huge covered markets.[1] Aleppo was once Syria’s largest city, with a population of over 2 million. When the uprising erupted in 2011, Aleppo did not see the large protests or the deadly violence that shook other towns and cities. But it suddenly became a battleground in July 2012. Rebel fighters launched an offensive to kick out government forces and gain control over northern Syria. But the rebel assault was not decisive. Aleppo ended up divided roughly in half – the opposition ended up controlling the east, and the government the west.

Al-Assad’s scorched earth strategy of siege warfare, with significant help from indiscriminate Russian airstrikes and Iranian revolutionary guards backed up with shi’a militia fighters, has paid off. The siege of East Aleppo resulted in the cutting off supplies, food, medicine, fuel and weapons. Russ­ian airstrikes sent tens of thou­sands of civil­ians flee­ing tar­geted areas and destroyed entire neighborhoods. The Pro-Assad forces indiscriminately used barrel bombs dropped from helicopters, even using chemical weapons on some occasions,[2] killing thousands of people and purposefully targeting civilians, including hospitals and schools. In November 2016 all hospitals in eastern Aleppo were out of action as a result. A wide spec­trum of aer­ial weapons were used to make life for those under the siege a liv­ing hell. “Bunker-busting bombs, more suited to destroy­ing mil­i­tary instal­la­tions, are now destroy­ing homes, dec­i­mat­ing bomb shel­ters, crip­pling, maim­ing, killing dozens, if not hun­dreds,”[3] Matthew Rycroft, Britain’s ambas­sador to the United Nations, told the Coun­cil ses­sion at an emer­gency meet­ing of the UN Secu­rity Coun­cil on Sun­day 25th November. The indiscriminate slaughter of the people of East Aleppo is how al-Assad has regained the city.

The complete indifference of the US left the people of Aleppo to fend for themselves under the onslaught of the regime. The most the US did was condemn what was taking place, call for talks but do nothing practically as the people of Aleppo were being slaughtered. This strategy has been a constant position of the US throughout the uprising – condemn, but do nothing. The call for talks every time the people of Syria are being bombed back to the stone age would indicate the US supports the actions as it would get the rebels to the negotiating table. The US has significant military assets in the region and could have dropped caches of weapons inside Syria; its forces regularly bomb ISIS territory to the East of Aleppo. However, the US does not see supporting the rebels in Aleppo as part of its strategic interests. The CNN highlighted: “The US has assembled an international coalition to fight ISIS and other terror groups that have established safe havens in the chaos of the Syrian civil war. But it has not taken military action to boost the rebels, even as it has sided with the moderate opposition and called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a close Russian ally, to step aside.”[4] A US-vetted rebel commander highlighted: “we are very frustrated. The United States refuses to provide weapons we need, and yet it still thinks it can tell us what to do. They promise support and then watch us drown. America will have no influence if our comrades are forced [to retreat to] Idlib.”[5] Embarrassed by this, US officials are now saying the Obama administration may lift a long-held ban by allowing Qatar and Saudi Arabia to arm rebels with man-portable missiles. “The US confirmed the green light to begin sending them to rebels through supply routes still open through Jordan and Turkey,” the Reuters news agency reported from an anonymous US official.[6] All of this is too little, too late.

[pullquote align=”right” color=”” class=”” cite=”” link=””]The regional nations who for long stated they supported the rebel groups against the regime in Damascus abandoned them at their most critical hour.[/pullquote]

The regional nations who for long stated they supported the rebel groups against the regime in Damascus abandoned them at their most critical hour. For years, Turkey worked with and built up insurgent groups in Aleppo province. As Aleppo was encircled over several months, Turkey’s response was limited to shelling areas the YPG had captured from rebels. What weakened the rebel front in Aleppo immensely was Turkey’s military intervention – known as Operation Euphrates Shield. The operation saw Turkish military officials shift rebel groups from Aleppo to Afrin in North Syria. By mobilising Syrian rebels who originally fought in Aleppo, such as the Noureddine al-Zinki Brigade, this weakened the rebellion in Aleppo and thus facilitated the advance of the al-Assad forces. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are now only interested in UN efforts in Syria and refuse to arm rebel groups in Aleppo who they armed previously. In a telephone conversation with Asharq Al-Awsat from New York, a Saudi diplomats highlighted: “Representatives of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Turkey had clearly invited the UN to hold an urgent session on the situation in Syria and the latest developments there because we touched an insistent need to hold such a session.”[7] Despite the regional nations possessing the capability to deal a fatal blow to al-Assad, the people of Aleppo have been abandoned by the regional nations.

Al-Assad’s forces have taken most of East Aleppo due to the factors outlined, but it may find this a curse rather than a victory. Until now, the problem for the regime has been that it cannot retake and hold areas, because it does not have the manpower to do so. Those manpower shortages remain, but the change has been the Russian air strikes have instituted a scorched-earth policy which destroys the area and pushes people out. So when an area is destroyed, it’s easier to take and hold, because you need less men, because there are not any other people there. The victory in Aleppo would allow al-Assad to free up forces, potentially, to go on the offensive elsewhere, directly into Idlib province and then eventually into the south. This would cement the regime’s hold on “essential Syria” from Aleppo down to Damascus, which is the spine of the country. Like the rebels, the al-Assad regime has also been decimated in the https://www.viagrapascherfr.com/achat-de-viagra-en-espagne/ 5 year war and doesn’t have the capability to regain the whole country without large external support. The rebels can now make holding territory for the al-Assad regime a nightmare through guerrilla warfare now that they are no longer looking to hold territory.

Whilst the capture of Aleppo has been swift, since the beginning of the siege this is due to significant external aid provided by intense Russian bombing of eastern Aleppo and the significant numbers of Iranian-backed ground militias who besieged eastern Aleppo and executed starvation tactics. The lack of support channelled to rebel groups in northern Syria hindered their attempt to break the siege. It should now be clear that ISIS was just a pawn to be used, when needed by all the powers in the battle for Syria. ISIS control the territory to the East of Aleppo and despite all the world’s’ powers bombing its positions it remains in control of the territory and is used as the excuse to intervene in Syria.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/world/middleeast/syrian-war-takes-heavy-toll-at-a-crossroad-of-cultures.html

[2] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-21/syria-unrest-aleppos-children-slaughtered-on-both-sides/8041258

[3] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/world/middleeast/aleppo-syria.html

[4] http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/28/politics/us-aleppo-russia-syria-options/

[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fearing-abandonment-by-trump-cia-backed-rebels-in-syria-mull-alternatives/2016/12/03/50419594-b8c1-11e6-a677-b608fbb3aaf6_story.html?utm_term=.217fc253f905

[6] http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/aleppo-must-not-fall-us-preparing-flood-city-anti-air-missiles-154690394

[7] http://english.aawsat.com/2016/12/article55363335/saudi-arabia-leads-international-effort-save-aleppo