7 / 9 / 2 0 1 8 D e m o c r a t M i k e L e v i n h a s i n i t i a l e d g e i n 4 9 t h C o n g r e s s i o n a l D i s t r i c t p o l l – M i k e L e v i n f o r C o n g r e s s h t t p s : / / m i k e l e v i n . o r g / d e m o c r a t - m i k e - l e v i n - h a s - i n i t i a l - e d g e - i n - 4 9 t h - c o n g r e s s i o n a l - d i s t r i c t - p o l l / 2 / 8

Democrat Mike Levin has the early edge in California’ s 49th C ongressional District over Republican Diane Harkey.

Levin initially leads Harkey by 44 percent to 41 percent, and by 49 percent to 46 percent when we include those who lean toward a candidate.

The telephone survey was conducted June 24 through 27 by The Feldman Group, Inc., for the Levi n campaign and the Democr atic Congressional Campaign Committee. The universe was v oters who participated in 2016 or in any election since then and screened for likely participation in the November 2018 election. The base sample was 400 but the surv ey also included an ov ersample of 200 voters who declined to state a party preference or are registered in a minor party. The oversample was then down weighted to reec t its correct proportion of the e lectorate. The margin of erro r was +/- 4.6%. Even at this early stage, voters in the 49th CD a re highly polarized with few who are both undecided and without partisan leanings. However , a total of 31 percent of voters are either undecided or

uncertain

of their choice making early communication to Democrats and voters who decline to state a party preference (DTS) imperative. Levin is well-known and well-liked among Democrats who participated in June primary but less known among those who did not do so and less known among DTS voters. As both candidates have potential negatives, early communication to shore up Le vin’ s base is imperative. Voters are looking for a candidate to work across party lines on behalf of local interests (52 percent) over a candidate who will shake up Washington and change Congress (36 perc ent). Voters here also do not want the election to be about President Donald T rump. While 40 percent say their attitudes toward Trump – on both sides – are the most import ant consideration in their decision, most do not say so, including an even larger proportion of DTS voters. Levin ’s env ironmental record is an important positive for him. Slowing climate change is a high priority to Democratic and DTS voters and Levin has a longstanding commitment to environmental issues. Environmental issu es are critical locally in this coastal district. Additionally, both K-12 and higher education issues and health care are on voters’ agenda. Levin ’s edge is likely to depe nd on turnout as much as on persuasion. The 49th CD has a 5-point Republican over Democr atic advantage in registration. Levin is carrying DTS voters, and especially younger DTS voters who lean Dem ocratic. Their level of participation and that of the district’s small communities of color will be important in maintaining the Levin edge.

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