“I think there is major reshuffling of how people are paying their taxes,” says Duane Goossen, who served as budget director under the three governors who preceded Mr. Brownback, including the Republican Bill Graves and the Democrat Kathleen Sebelius. “You have every incentive to push your salary down and take all of your income as profit.”

Mr. Stotts, the taxation director, expressed hope that revenues would be stronger in the spring; he noted that taxpayers who make quarterly estimated tax payments are setting those payments based on last year’s tax bills, which (given last year’s revenue shortfall) were low. If incomes are strong this year, the resulting boost in revenues may show up in final payments made with tax returns filed in the spring, rather than estimated payments made this summer and fall.

On the other hand, another income tax rate cut is scheduled to go into effect in January, which will weigh on tax collections in 2015. All told, Mr. Stotts said he suspected the state’s revenue-estimating group would cut the state’s revenue projections shortly after the election, at its next scheduled meeting. “I can’t tell you how much,” he said.

I can make an educated guess, though: If personal income tax revenues continue to fall short by 10 percent, that will add $250 million to the state’s budget gap. Bear in mind, even before the summer revenue miss, the state’s legislative research department expected the budget to be out of balance by $350 million, a gap that would be covered by drawing down all but $29 million of the state’s remaining reserve funds. Since the reserves are already scheduled to be nearly depleted, the Kansas legislature will have to respond to any cut in the revenue estimates by raising taxes or cutting spending in the current year.

There could be even bigger problems to come, because Kansas’ income tax estimates for the next nine months are actually more optimistic than this summer’s were. In fiscal year 2014, Kansas collected 26 percent of its personal income taxes in the summer quarter. But in forecasting this fiscal year’s revenues, Kansas attributed only 23 percent of expected annual personal income tax revenue to the summer — and then missed its projection anyway. If summer revenues make up 26 percent of total revenues, as they did last year, the state will be short by closer to $500 million than $250 million. And in addition to needing to close this year’s gap, the state will start deeper in the hole for fiscal year 2016, for which it already has a projected budget shortfall of $240 million.