



I apologize in advance if this is overly optimistic.





The big news in the world of Indian football is that the draw for the Asia Cup 2019 has been made. India have been drawn in Group A with the hosts, United Arab Emirates, Thailand, and Bahrain. At first glance, I was happy with that draw as the Blue Tigers managed to avoid all the Asian giants. But just to be sure let’s look at overall probabilities for qualifying out of the group,













India have better than a 1-in-3 chance of going through.





The second I saw that I thought, no way, and I triple checked the model and here’s the gist of what the model says is going to happen. India will lose to Thailand and they both will lose to the UAE. India will beat Bahrain, but Thailand will only manage to draw against them. The UAE and Thailand will go through from the group.





India, however, are predicted not to concede too many goals in the tournament. They have a decent defensive record and if they manage to beat Bahrain by 2+ goals will stand an amazing chance of going through as the best third placed team. There’s also a ~50% chance that India will draw or beat Thailand, in which case the superior defensive prowess of the Blue Tigers might be the difference. It is vital that India do not concede many goals.





Now onto each individual match in the group,





Likelihood of every possible outcome of each game in Group A of the Asia Cup 2019.

If each match goes as predicted this could be the final table,













Predictions are based on the results of the last 4 years of International matches.