On Thursday night, Mr Abbott said a leadership vote would be a "distraction" and insisted he trusted Mr Turnbull and deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull taking questions at the Dam Hotel in Wyong on Thursday night. Credit:Wolter Peeters Fairfax Media has spoken to four NSW Baird government MPs who have all taken concerns to federal counterparts. Their concern, fed by state-based polling, is that the "Abbott factor" could cost 10 to 20 seats in March. That could be restricted to a loss of 5 to10 without Mr Abbott's drag. The extreme unpopularity of the Abbott government was a factor in the wipeouts of the Newman Queensland government and the Napthine government in Victoria.

"Abbott is a nightmare, every second household will mention him, it's embarrassing" said a campaigning state Liberal. Another said: "They like Mike, they just don't like Tony." Mike Baird is believed to back Mr Abbott remaining Prime Minister but would like to "see the whole thing go away", according to a colleague. By Thursday night Mr Turnbull was shaping as the clear frontrunner as a leadership alternative, with one MP declaring he would be "prime minister tomorrow if he wants it," reversing the 2009 spill when Mr Abbott sank Mr Turnbull by a single vote. When asked what would happen in the party room on Tuesday, Mr Turnbull said: "We'll see, you'll just have to wait and see" before insisting "we have a very united team". Unlike Julie Bishop, Mr Turnbulll has not pledged publicly that he will not challenge – but he is also understood to have not directly canvassed for support. "It's the conversations he is not having," said one MP who did not want to be named.

And a minister, loyal to Mr Abbott, told Fairfax Media that momentum appeared to be building towards a challenge, which is likely to come to a head at the Tuesday partyroom meeting. Those in favour of a change said the most likely new leadership would include Mr Turnbull as prime minister, with Ms Bishop remaining deputy and Foreign Minister, with Social Services Minister Scott Morrison, a favourite of the right, taking the reins of Treasury from Joe Hockey. Mr Abbott was given the support of mining magnate Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest, who appealed to those undermining the Prime Minister to put the nation first. "Let the government run," Mr Forrest told Fairfax Media in Canberra, following a series of meetings with ministers. "Industry is looking for stability because that's what you need to run a company, to run a business and to run a country." Mr Robb agreed that the electorate wants stability but conceded that the Abbott government had added to a feeling of instability due to its poor salesmanship of "surprise" budget measures it introduced.

"People are looking to the government for stability. They want peace of mind and I think we've contributed in part [to instability],' he said. "We've got to be smarter this year about how we execute policy, how we introduce new policy and explain it." Mr Robb became the first cabinet minister to break ranks warning Mr Abbott would "retain" the leadership based on performance directly - contradicting the Prime Minister's claim that voters hire and fire their leaders and not the party room. Mr Abbott insisted he enjoyed the support of his cabinet and that he would still be the Prime Minister next week, despite senior Liberal Arthur Sinodinos responding "ask me this time next week" when asked the same question. Asked on the Sky News channel whether he trusted Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop, Mr Abbott said: "Yes I do, they are my cabinet colleagues, they are my friends I have known them both for a long time, I've worked closely with them for a long time, you always have your ups and downs. That's natural when you've got strong personalities talking about the most difficult decisions any country can face, but I trust them." Mr Abbott said he had not spoken to Mr Sinodinos since the former assistant treasurer went public with his doubts.

On Thursday, National Party leader Warren Truss said the Coalition agreement with his party was with Mr Abbott and would have to be renegotiated if there was a change of Liberal leadership. With Dan Harrison Follow us on Twitter