Mr. Chen described what he called the intervention of the United States in territorial disputes in the South China Sea — where China has been at odds with another American ally, the Philippines — as a way for the United States to expand its influence and restrain the influence of China.

“Will these countries misjudge and draw China and the United States into a confrontation?” Mr. Chen asked. “The danger is apparent, and China needs to be aware of that.”

Mr. Chen, who is now dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, offered a lengthy list of suggestions and assurances for how China hopes to resolve tensions with its neighbors.

“China does not seek to provoke incidents, and will not be the one to do so first,” he said. He said that China had only sent administrative vessels to the disputed islands, not warships from its navy.

Mr. Chen said major changes in Chinese foreign policy were unlikely to follow the selection of a new leadership team at the Party Congress. “I think it’s going to be a smooth change, and the main tenets of our foreign policy will remain very much the same,” he said.

By far the biggest threat to stability in the region are the islands where Japan and China are at odds. Little more than rocky outcrops in shark-infested waters, Japan won the islands as the spoils of war in the Sino-Japanese War in 1895. The United States took over administration of the islands at the end of World War II.

China expected that Japan as a defeated nation would have to give up the islands, and that they would be returned to China. But the islands were not returned, rankling China and Taiwan ever since — a rare issue on which those two agree.