As Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNBC, if Trump follows through on the tariffs, “that is the fodder for recessions,” and would more than likely force Powell’s hand, out of fear of the impact on business confidence and spending. (The new tariffs could also affect consumer spending, as products like Nike sneakers and iPhones will be affected.) But whether Trump is playing three-dimensional chess in an effort to get the rate cuts he wants, or is just being his usual not-very-bright self—and the odds are it’s the latter—the result will probably be the same.

“Recession odds probably go over even,” Zandi said, “and I think it would be pretty hard to avoid a downturn, regardless of what the Fed does. The Fed will have to respond, and the Fed will have to cut rates. The bond market will get what it is anticipating, and that is four rate cuts.”

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Report: only way curious case of Jared and Ivanka’s security clearances will be probed is if Trump requests an investigation

In other words, it‘s never gonna happen: