Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters

Readers with an interest in arbitrary-ish end points will be keen on learning that, among major-league catchers over the last two seasons, Matt Wieters is fourth overall by WAR with a mark of 9.1. Other readers — even those who are entirely wary of arbitrary end points — will recognize that Wieters is projected by ZiPS to produce in 2013 roughly what he averaged between 2011 and -12. In either case, he’s probably one of the five-best catchers in the major leagues.

For as much as it will cost the team — i.e. something like $2.5 million total — experimenting with a platoon of Wilson Betemit and Danny Valencia (or the recently acquired Russ Canzler, as the case may be) at DH isn’t the worst possible idea. Isolating platoon skill requires a considerable number of plate appearances; however, the switch-hitting Betemit has been better against righties (117 wRC+, .350 BABIP, 1752 PA) and Valencia has been better against left-handers (127 wRC+, .343 BABIP, 326 PA).

Pitchers

At first, Chris Tillman was a top prospect in the Mariners system. Then, following a trade, he was a top prospect in the Orioles system. Then, after three underwhelming half-seasons in the majors, he was a relative disappointment. Now, after a 2012 campaign that saw his velocity return and peripherals improve, he appears to be something not unlike an average major-league starter — an accomplishment that oughtn’t be ignored, even if it’s something less than prospect analysts have regarded as Tillman’s ceiling.

The Orioles bullpen accounted for a 13.86 WPA in 2012 — over five wins more than the second-place Texas Rangers by that measure. While certainly an accomplishment for the relief unit, it’s also the case that WPA isn’t predictive in any real sense. To their credit, however, the Baltimore bullpen remains quite strong. One thing to monitor: how the club uses Tommy Hunter, who’s likely to fill a long-relief role. After transitioning from the rotation last season, he saw his fastball velocity increase by 5 mph, and overall improvement in his peripherals.

Bench/Prospects

Following his first professional season, right-hander Dylan Bundy is projected by ZiPS to post league-average per-inning numbers as just a 20-year-old. Insofar as pitching prospects are the very definition of mercurial, there’s no guaranteeing his 2013 season will bring Great Success. That said, it would be surprising to see a less optimistic projection for him in these pages next year. Decidedly not a top prospect, but of some interest to the author, is 29-year-old Antoan Richardson — if only because Richardson used to receive very optimistic defensive marks from the now entirely secret CHONE projection system. A brief inspection of Baseball America’s Minor League Free Agent Tracker reveals that Richardson is now a member of the Minnesota organization.

Here’s a video of Richardson and his excellent Bahamian accent:

Depth Chart

Here’s a rough depth chart for the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.