A crossover SUV vehicle is welded by robot arms as it goes through the assembly line at the General Motors Lansing Delta Township Assembly Plant March 10, 2010 in Lansing, Michigan. The Delta plant has more than 3,000 workers on two shifts and is expected to add a third shift of 900-1,000 workers in April. The plant produces the Buick Enclave, Chevrolet Traverse, and GMC Acadia crossover SUVs. Bill Pugliano/Getty centered on the angst of the white middle class and the ongoing loss of jobs in the Rust Belt. And that focus gave him his margin of victory.

Trump promised to bring those jobs back, a sentiment that resonated powerfully with the electorate. The problem is—as we’ve talked about previously—that at least 80–90% of manufacturing jobs were lost not to companies moving factories to China or Mexico but to increased automation.

Those Jobs Are Never “Coming Back”

They are gone. And that trend is going to continue and accelerate.

I fully understand that if we do get corporate tax reform as we discussed before, along with some other reforms, it is possible that Apple would move its iPhone 10 factory to the US. But iPhones are increasingly assembled by robots. In a few years, those and other such products will mostly be made on largely automated production lines, whether in China or the US.

Note that Apple has 766 suppliers, of which just 69 are in the US. Manufacturing iPhones in the US would be more about the logistics of getting just-in-time components from those other 700 suppliers, which are all over the world. It’s not the “manufacturing” Trump refers to.

And that situation is playing out over hundreds of industries.

Much of what we buy today is absolutely reliant on a complex, seamlessly functioning global supply chain. Current or near-term jobs in manufacturing are not the critical issue.

The Revolution of Self-Driving Cars

Echoing what I’ve written about previously, we are rapidly entering the Age of Transformation. It’s not just the introduction of new technologies; employment and job creation are also changing extraordinarily quickly.

Let’s look at the impact of autonomous (self-driving) vehicles.

I am told they are actually available in beta form in Sweden, made by Volvo. Elon Musk promises us an autonomous car by 2020.

I think 2022–23 is more realistic. But sooner or later, there will be an explosion. Estimates are that by 2030, 25% of vehicles will be autonomous. (I want to thank my friend David Galland in his recent column for pointing me to a summary of these figures.)

I agree with David that the 2030 figure is likely to be far higher than 25%. The adoption of new technologies happens faster every year. Here’s a chart he used: