The court will read the report of the hearing of 14 April 2015 with due observance of the comment of the State in its letter of 30 April 2015 and of the comments of Urgenda in its letter of 6 May 2015 regarding an attribution. In Urgenda’s other comments the court sees insufficient reason to amend the report, also in light of the State’s response to the comments. However, it should be noted that the report is only an abridged version of that which was discussed at the hearing or of the conclusions drawn by the court from that which was discussed at the hearing.

- the letters of 30 April and 11 May 2015 of mr. Brans and of 6 and 12 May 2015 of mr. Cox, with comments on the report,

The Dutch objective is to attain an ambitious global climate agreement in which all parties participate. Not only does this apply to countries, but also to businesses, cities and civil society with which we cooperate on the road to a climate-neutral world. The agreement will have to offer sufficient flexibility to countries to enable them to contribute according to their capacity. This does not mean that the new agreement should be non-binding. Countries will have to monitor, report, and test and discuss the results. Subsequently we have to challenge countries to raise their ambitions to limit the global temperature rise to 2 degrees. Therefore, the Netherlands endorses the EU’s target of a 80-95% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 compared to 1990. In October 2014, the European Council set a binding target of at least a 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for 2030, which serves as an intermediary step.”

In her letter of 24 February 2015, the State Secretary for Infrastructure and the Environment sent the House of Representatives the annotated agenda of the Environmental Council. It states the following, among other things:

“As for the CO2 reduction target for the non-ETS sectors, the burden sharing among the Member States will be an important subject of discussion in the European negotiations. Depending on the criterion applied to the burden sharing, for the Netherlands this will result in a CO2 reduction of 28 to 48% for the non-ETS sectors in 2030. The ECN and the PBL state that the associated costs in the report are subject to uncertainties: the bandwidth of the emission level in the reference situation, for instance, is about 9Mt, to which the uncertainty of the data used in the calculations should also be added. Regarding the efforts for the Netherlands for the various reduction targets for non-ETS sectors, the research agencies have found as follows:

In response to an analysis carried out by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the PBL regarding the consequences for the Netherlands of the 2030 climate and energy policy framework proposed by the European Commission and of the targets stated therein, the State Secretary for Infrastructure and the Environment reported to the House of Representatives with her letter of 26 September 2014:

According to analyses carried out by the Commission, the European Union’s 20% CO2 reduction target deviates from the most cost-efficient path to the objective of 80-95% in 2050. The European Union’s objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% is within reach. The European Union has not decided to raise it to the conditional target of 30%, partly because there is no agreement whether or not the formulated condition – a significant reduction by other major economies – has been met (…). With the climate and energy framework policy for 2030, the European Union would get back on track with to the most cost-efficient path to a decarbonised economy.”

- The crux of the matter is that the Netherlands argues for a greenhouse gas emission reduction of at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, as proposed by the Commission in the Green Paper (…).

- 100 petajoules in energy savings in the final energy consumption in the Netherlands as of 2020;

The Dutch contribution in the EU is to attain a CO2 reduction of at least 40% in 2030. (…)

In part due to policy and also as a consequence of the recession, greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands have started to decline following years of escalation (…). This means that the Netherlands is on track to attain the commitments for 2008-2012 (Kyoto) and internationally for 2020.[20] Estimates gauge that non-ETS sectors will surpass the EU target for 2020, without the need to acquire allowances. However, the fact that the targets will be attained does not mean that we are sufficiently on course to achieve the required long-term emission reductions. (…) With the policy announced in the SER Energy Agreement and in this Climate Agenda, the cabinet seeks to ensure the required extra acceleration in the Netherlands to realise its objective of having a climate-neutral economy in 2050.

The climate problem requires an international approach (…). The static agreements made over the years with highly divergent targets for developed and developing countries is no longer in line with the current dynamic situation of rapidly growing economies, including those of Brazil, South Africa and China. These changing relationships require a new and more effective global approach in order to involve as many parties as possible, including governments, the business community and civil society. Virtually all countries are combating climate change, although current efforts have not yielded the desired result of remaining under the 2 degree temperature rise. Efforts of countries such as Chine and the United States are, however, essential for making progress (…).

The total of emission reductions proposed by the developed countries so far is insufficient to achieve the 25-40% reduction in 2020, which is necessary to stay on a feasible track to keep the 2 degrees objective within reach.(…)”

In her letter of 12 October 2009 with the subject “objective of the negotiations in Copenhagen and appreciation of the Commission’s announcement about climate financing”, the then Minister of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment reported the following to the House of Representatives:

The 13th Conference of the signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention was held in Bali, Indonesia from 3 to 14 December of last year. The Netherlands was represented by Minister Cramer in the negotiations and the High Level Segment. In this capacity, she participated in the ministerial EU coordination and addressed the plenary session of the COP. In her statement, she called on the rich countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 25 to 40% by 2020 and to focus more on adaptation, deforestation and technology funds in developing countries. (…)”

“(…) First, the Netherlands will continue to take as a basis that the mean global temperature rise should be limited to 2 degrees over the pre-industrial level in order to keep the consequences of climate change manageable. Second, it remains important for the developed countries to take the lead by committing to a joint 30% reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, compared to 1990. The third element is the notion that the participation of countries has to be expanded in a post-2012 regime. The Netherlands will continue to focus on agreements in which developing countries – particularly the larger countries and the countries that are experiencing rapid economic growth – also make tangible contributions and in some cases also commit to targets, depending on their different responsibilities and capabilities. Only then will it be possible to stabilise global emissions within 10 to 15 years and subsequently reduce them. (…)

In a letter of 29 April 2008 of the then Ministers of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment and Development Cooperation to the House of Representatives on the climate conference in Bali, the following, among other things, was stated:

“Climate change calls for action, as it threatens our security, food supply, water management and biodiversity. In this work programme, the cabinet focuses on ambitious climate targets: a 30% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990) is needed, preferably in a European context (…). The European target is a 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of a global agreement. In light of the Dutch objective of -30%, there is a chance that this will cause a shortfall in attaining the overall Dutch target. If European decision-making leads to a shortfall in the reduction targets the Netherlands has committed to, the cabinet will review whether it can reach agreement with other countries in similar situations (formulating high national reduction targets). If this fails, a part of the reduction shortfall will have to be covered by the government (…) and the reduction targets of sectors will be reassessed in consultation with the sectors.”

project Schoon en Zuinig) rom 2007, in which the then cabinet formulated its climate policy, contains as a climate objective a 30% reduction for 2020 compared to 1990. According to the report, this means that as of 2020 an annual climate ceiling of 150Mt CO2-eq. will apply. The report states the following, among other things:

The “New energy for the climate Work Programme of the Clean and Sustainable Project” (Werkprogramma Nieuwe energie voor het klimaat van het

[Note 1: Decision No. 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of the European Union of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020 (OJEU L 140).]”

In phase I and II of the ETS, each Member State had separate emission ceilings. The calculation of the allocation of emission allowances also took place on a national level, by means of a National Allocation Plan (hereinafter: NAP). This approach was in line with the national Kyoto commitments. Phase III introduces a European ceiling and strict European regulation for the allocation of emission allowances. Under Article 9 of Directive 2003/87/EC, an absolute number of emission allowances for the entire Community (hereinafter: EU ceiling) was introduced. The EU has set as an objective to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by at least 20% by 2020 compared to 1990. The year 1990 was chosen, as this is also the base year in the Kyoto Protocol. This objective relates to all sectors, including the sectors that fall under the scope of the ETS and the sectors that do not fall under that system (hereinafter: non-ETS sectors). An example of a non-ETS sector is the built environment. The objective for 1990 can be translated into an objective for 2005 and thus corresponds with a 14% reduction in 2020 compared to 2005. This translation is needed, as 2005 is the start year for the ETS and data verified in the ETS will be published in 2005. The overall objective is divided over the ETS and non-ETS sectors. The reduction for the non-ETS sectors is set at 10% compared to 2005; and for the ETS sector at 21% compared to 2005. The ETS objective of -21% means that all ETS sectors combined have to achieve the 21% reduction compared to 2005. These objectives of -10% and -21% apply to phase III of the ETS. The non-ETS objectives have been divided over the various Member States. The Netherlands has a reduction obligation of 16% compared to the level of 2005. By way of comparison, the reduction obligations of several Member States are depicted in the diagram below.[1]

Under the EC Greenhouse Gas Emission Allowance Trading Directive (Implementation) Act of 30 September 2004, and by amending the Environmental Management Act, among other acts, the ETS Directive was converted into national law. A sixteenth chapter was added to the Environmental Management Act, entitled “Emission Allowance Trading”. Put briefly, this chapter regulates the issuance of permits to businesses with greenhouse gas installations and the issuance, allocation and use of emission allowances. Directive No 2009/29/EC was implemented with the “EC Greenhouse Gas Emission Allowance Trading Directive (Review) Act” of 12 April 2012. The Explanatory Memorandum to this Act contains the following sections, among others: 20

This communication responds to the decisions taken in Lima, and is a key element in implementing the Commission's priority of building a resilient Energy Union with a forward-looking climate change policy consistent with the President of the Commission's political guidelines. This communication prepares the EU for the last round of negotiations before the Paris conference in December 2015.”

Well ahead of the Lima conference, the EU continued to show leadership and determination to tackle climate change globally. At the European Summit in October 2014, European leaders agreed that the EU should step up its efforts and domestically reduce its emissions by at least 40% compared to 1990 by 2030. This was followed by announcements of China and the US. In Lima, EU Member States pledged about half of the initial capitalisation of US$10 billion to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to assist developing countries. Within the EU, a new investment plan was adopted. This will unlock public and private investments in the real economy of at least €315 billion over the next three years (2015-17). These investments will help modernise and further decarbonise the EU’s economy.

All countries need to act urgently and collectively. Since 1994, the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have focused on this challenge, resulting in more than 90 countries, both developed and developing, pledging to curb their emissions by 2020. However, these pledges are insufficient to achieve the below 2°C objective. For these reasons, in 2012, the UNFCCC Parties launched negotiations towards a new legally binding agreement applicable to all Parties that will put the world on track to achieve the below 2°C objective. The 2015 Agreement is to be finalised in Paris in December 2015 and implemented from 2020. (…)

This global transition to low emissions can be achieved without compromising growth and jobs, and can provide significant opportunities to revitalise economies in Europe and globally. Action to tackle climate change also brings significant benefits in terms of public well-being. Delaying this transition will, however, raise overall costs and narrow the options for effectively reducing emissions and preparing for the impacts of climate change.

The EU level target must be shared between the ETS and what the Member States must achieve collectively in the sectors outside of the ETS. The ETS sector would have to deliver a reduction of 43% in GHG in 2030 and the non-ETS sector a reduction of 30% both compared to 2005. In order to bring about the required emissions reduction in the ETS sector, the annual factor by which the cap on the maximum permitted emissions within the ETS decreases will have to be increased from 1.74% currently to 2.2% after 2020.

The Commission proposes to set a greenhouse gas emission reduction target for domestic EU emissions of 40% in 2030 relative to emissions in 1990. It is important to note that the policies and measures implemented and envisaged by the Member States in relation to their current obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will continue to have effect after 2020. If fully implemented and fully effective, these measures are expected to deliver a 32% reduction relative to emissions in 1990. This will require continued effort but at the same time shows that the proposed target for 2030 is achievable. Continuous appraisal will, however, be important to take account of the international dimension and to ensure that the Union continues to follow the least cost pathway to a low-carbon economy.

On 15 March 2012, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on the Roadmap referred to in 2.64, in which the Roadmap as well as the path and specific milestones for the reduction of the Community’s domestic emissions of 40%, 60% and 80% for 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively, were endorsed. 16

Emissions, including international aviation, were estimated to be 16% below 1990 levels in 2009. With full implementation of current policies, the EU is on track to achieve a 20% domestic reduction in 2020 below 1990 levels, and 30% in 2030. However, with current policies, only half of the 20% energy efficiency target would be met by 2020.

This analysis of different scenarios shows that domestic emission reductions of the order of 40% and 60% below 1990 levels would be the cost-effective pathway by 2030 and 2040, respectively. In this context, it also shows reductions of 25% in 2020. (…). Such a pathway would result in annual reductions compared to 1990 of roughly 1% in the first decade until 2020, 1.5% in the second decade from 2020 until 2030, and 2% in the last two decades until 2050. The effort would become greater over time as a wider set of cost-effective technologies becomes available. (…)

(…) In order to keep climate change below 2ºC, the European Council reconfirmed in February 2011 the EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990, in the context of necessary reductions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by developed countries as a group. This is in line with the position endorsed by world leaders in the Copenhagen and the Cancun Agreements. These agreements include the commitment to deliver long-term low carbon development strategies. Some Member States have already made steps in this direction, or are in the process of doing so, including setting emission reduction objectives for 2050. (…)

In the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the regions of 8 March 2011, entitled “A roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, the following was stated, among other things: 15

The purpose of this Communication is not to decide now to move to a 30% target: the conditions set are clearly not met. To facilitate a more informed debate on the implications of the different levels of ambition, this Communication sets out the result of analysis into the implications of the 20% and 30% targets as seen from today's perspective. (…)”

We have also had the Copenhagen summit. Despite the disappointment of failing to achieve the goal of a full, binding international agreement to tackle climate change, the most positive result was that countries accounting for some 80% of emissions today made pledges to cut emissions, even though these will be insufficient to meet the 2°C target. It will remain essential to integrate the Copenhagen Accord in on-going UNFCCC negotiations (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). But the need for action remains as valid as ever.

Since the EU policy was agreed, circumstances have been changing rapidly. We have seen an economic crisis of unprecedented scale. It has put huge pressure onto businesses and communities across Europe, as well as causing huge stress on public finances. But at the same time, it has confirmed that there are huge opportunities for Europe in building a resource-efficient society.

But it has always been clear that action by the EU alone will not be enough to combat climate change and also that a 20% cut by the EU is not the end of the story. EU action alone is not enough to deliver the goal of keeping global temperature increase below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. All countries will need to make an additional effort, including cuts of 80- 95% by 2050 by developed countries. An EU target of 20% by 2020 is just a first step to put emissions onto this path.

In the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the regions, entitled “Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage” of 26 May 2010, the following, among other things, was stated: 14 “When the EU decided in 2008 to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, it showed its commitment to tackling the climate change threat and to lead the world in demonstrating how this could be done. The agreed cut of 20% from 1990 levels by 2020, together with a 20% renewables target, was a crucial step for the EU's sustainable development and a clear signal to the rest of the world that the EU was ready to take the action required. The EU will meet its Kyoto Protocol target and has a strong track record in climate action.

(9) To further ensure a fair distribution between the Member States of the efforts to contribute to the implementation of the independent reduction commitment of the Community, no Member State should be required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 to more than 20% below 2005 levels nor allowed to increase its greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 to more than 20% above 2005 levels. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions should take place between 2013 and 2020. Each Member State should be allowed to carry forward from the following year a quantity of up to 5% of its annual emission allocation. Where the emissions of a Member State are below that annual emission allocation, a Member State should be allowed to carry over its excess emission reductions to the subsequent years (…).

(7) The effort of each Member State should be determined in relation to the level of its 2005 greenhouse gas emissions covered by this Decision, adjusted to exclude the emissions from installations that existed in 2005 but which were brought into the Community scheme in the period from 2006 to 2012. Annual emission allocations for the period from 2013 to 2020 in terms of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent should be determined on the basis of reviewed and verified data.

(6) Directive 2003/87/EC(1) establishes a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community, which covers certain sectors of the economy. All sectors of the economy should contribute to emission reductions in order to cost-effectively achieve the objective of a 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Member States should therefore implement additional policies and measures in an effort to further limit the greenhouse gas emissions from sources not covered under Directive 2003/87/EC.

(4) The European Council of March 2007 emphasised that the Community is committed to transforming Europe into a highly energy-efficient and low greenhouse-gas-emitting economy and has decided that, until a global and comprehensive agreement for the period after 2012 is concluded, and without prejudice to its position in international negotiations, the Community makes a firm independent commitment to achieve at least a 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 (…).

(3) Furthermore, in order to meet this objective, the European Council of March 2007 endorsed a Community objective of a 30% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 as its contribution to a global and comprehensive agreement for the period after 2012, provided that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission reductions and economically more advanced developing countries commit themselves to contributing adequately according to their responsibilities and capabilities.

“ (2) The view of the Community, most recently expressed, in particular, by the European Council of March 2007, is that in order to meet this objective, the overall global annual mean surface temperature increase should not exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels, which implies that global greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2050. The Community’s greenhouse gas emissions covered by this Decision should continue to decrease beyond 2020 as part of the Community’s efforts to contribute to this global emissions reduction goal. Developed countries, including the EU Member States, should continue to take the lead by committing to collectively reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases in the order of 30% by 2020 compared to 1990. They should do so also with a view to collectively reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 60 to 80% by 2050 compared to 1990. (…)

In Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020 (the “Effort Sharing Decision”), the following was considered and adopted to regulate emissions in the non-ETS sectors:

or whether it is just the maximum reduction that may conceivably be accepted, given the balance of short-term political and economically motivated interests of Member States. The EESC concludes that accumulating evidence on climate change demands the re-setting of targets to achieve greater GHG emission reductions.”

“6.5 The EESC has therefore paid particular attention to the role of the ETS in delivering equitable and sustainable impact on global GHG reduction. Does it demonstrate that European action is both credible and effective? In this context it has to be stated that the EU target of a 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 levels (which underlies the ETS and the burden sharing proposals) is lower than the 25-40% reduction range for industrialised nations which was supported by the EU at the Bali Climate Change Conference in December 2007. The Commission starts from the targets as agreed in the European Spring Council 2007 leaving undiscussed whether this level of reduction is really sufficient to achieve global objectives

In July 2008, the EESC issued its Opinion on the “Proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading system of the Community”. This proposal pertains the following, among other things: 13

Strong scientific evidence shows that urgent action to tackle climate change is imperative. Recent studies, such as the Stern review, reaffirm the enormous costs of failure to act. These costs are economic, but also social and environmental and will especially fall on the poor, in both developing and developed countries. A failure to act will have serious local and global security implications. Most solutions are readily available, but governments must now adopt policies to implement them. Not only is the economic cost of doing so manageable, tackling climate change also brings considerable benefits in other respects. The EU's objective is to limit global average temperature increase to less than 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This will limit the impacts of climate change and the likelihood of massive and irreversible disruptions of the global ecosystem. The Council has noted that this will require atmospheric concentrations of GHG to remain well below 550 ppmv CO2-eq. By stabilising long-term concentrations at around 450 ppmv CO2-eq. there is a 50% chance of doing so. This will require global GHG emissions to peak before 2025 and then fall by up to 50% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The Council has agreed that developed countries will have to continue to take the lead to reduce their emissions between 15 to 30% by 2020. The European Parliament has proposed an EU CO2 reduction target of 30% for 2020 and 60 to 80% for 2050.”

The Community-wide quantity of allowances issued each year starting in 2013 shall decrease in a linear manner beginning from the mid-point of the period from 2008 to 2012. The quantity shall decrease by a linear factor of 1.74% compared to the average annual total quantity of allowances issued by Member States in accordance with the Commission Decisions on their national allocation plans for the period from 2008 to 2012.

This Directive also lays down provisions for assessing and implementing a stricter Community reduction commitment exceeding 20%, to be applied upon the approval by the Community of an international agreement on climate change leading to greenhouse gas emission reductions exceeding those required in Article 9, as reflected in the 30% commitment endorsed by the European Council of March 2007.

(14) This contribution is equivalent to a reduction of emissions in 2020 in the Community scheme of 21% below reported 2005 levels, (…).”

(13) The Community-wide quantity of allowances should decrease in a linear manner calculated from the mid-point of the period from 2008 to 2012, ensuring that the emissions trading system delivers gradual and predictable reductions of emissions over time. The annual decrease of allowances should be equal to 1.74% of the allowances issued by Member States pursuant to Commission Decisions on Member States’ national allocation plans for the period from 2008 to 2012, so that the Community scheme contributes cost-effectively to achieving the commitment of the Community to an overall reduction in emissions of at least 20% by 2020.

“(6) In order to enhance the certainty and predictability of the Community scheme, provisions should be specified to increase the level of contribution of the Community scheme to achieving an overall reduction of more than 20%, in particular in view of the European Council’s objective of a 30% reduction by 2020 which is considered scientifically necessary to avoid dangerous climate change (…).

long term objective of a maximum global temperature increase of 2 °Celsius over pre-industrial levels and a CO2 concentration below 550 ppm shall guide the Programme. In the longer term this is likely to require a global reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases by 70% as compared to 1990 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); (… )”

Under Article 192 TFEU, the European Parliament and the Council, acting in accordance with the ordinary legislative procedure (meaning on the proposal of the Commission) and after consulting the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) and the Committee of the Regions, generally decide what action is to be taken by the Union in order to achieve the objectives referred to in Article 191 (apart from exception formulated the paragraph 2).

2. Union policy on the environment shall aim at a high level of protection taking into account the diversity of situations in the various regions of the Union. It shall be based on the precautionary principle and on the principles that preventive action should be taken, that environmental damage should as a priority be rectified at source and that the polluter should pay.

Noting with grave concern the significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2°C or 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, (…)”

4. Urges Annex I Parties to raise the level of ambition of the emission reductions to be achieved by them individually or jointly, with a view to reducing their aggregate level of emissions of greenhouse gases in accordance with the range indicated by Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, and taking into account the quantitative implications of the use of land use, land-use change and forestry activities, emissions trading and project-based mechanisms and the carry-over of units from the first to the second commitment period; (…)”

Also recognizing that the contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, indicates that achieving the lowest levels assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to date and its corresponding potential damage limitation would require Annex I Parties as a group to reduce emissions in a range of 25–40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, through means that may be available to these Parties to reach their emission reduction targets, (…)

4. Further recognizes that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre- industrial levels, and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity; also recognizes the need to consider, in the context of the first review, as referred to in paragraph 138 below, strengthening the long-term global goal on the basis of the best available scientific knowledge, including in relation to a global average temperature rise of 1.5°C; (…)”

Noting resolution 10/4 of the United Nations Human Rights Council on human rights and climate change, which recognizes that the adverse effects of climate change have a range of direct and indirect implications for the effective enjoyment of human rights and that the effects of climate change will be felt most acutely by those segments of the population that are already vulnerable owing to geography, gender, age, indigenous or minority status, or disability (…),

Recognizing that deep cuts in global emissions will be required to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and emphasizing the urgency1 to address climate change as is indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts,

The UN Climate Change Convention has also provided for the establishment of the Conference of the Parties (COP). All Parties hold a seat on the COP and have one vote. Based on the reports submitted by the Member States, the COP makes annual assessments of the status of the achievement of the Convention’s objective and issues reports about it. The COP can issue decisions during these climate conferences, usually based on consensus.

On 8 December 2012, an Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Doha (Qatar). In the Amendment, various countries and the European Union as a whole as well as its individual Member States agreed on a CO2 emission reduction target for the period 2013-2020. The European Union committed to a 20% reduction target as of 2020, compared to 1990. The European Union offered to commit to a 30% reduction target, on the condition that both the developed and the more advanced developing countries commit to similar emission targets. This condition has not materialised thus far nor has the Doha Amendment entered into force yet.

In the Protocol, the signatories set as their objective for the period 2008-2012 to reduce the mean annual greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries by 5.2% compared to 1990 (Article 3, paragraph 1 of and Appendix B to the Kyoto Protocol). The reduction percentages differ per country. A reduction target of 8% (Appendix B) was set for the European Union for the same period. The EU proceeded to determine the emission reductions per Member State, after consulting the Member States. An emission reduction of 6% was agreed for the Netherlands.

The Kyoto Protocol was agreed in 1997 in the context of the UN Climate Change Convention. The Netherlands, but also (the predecessor of) the European Union, which then comprised fifteen countries, including the Netherlands, ratified the Kyoto Protocol. It entered into force on 16 February 2005.

( b) In order to promote progress to this end, each of these Parties shall communicate, within six months of the entry into force of the Convention for it and periodically thereafter, and in accordance with Article 12, detailed information on its policies and measures referred to in subparagraph (a) above, as well as on its resulting projected anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol for the period referred to in subparagraph (a), with the aim of returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels these anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. This information will be reviewed by the Conference of the Parties, at its first session and periodically thereafter, in accordance with Article 7; (…)

( a) Each of these Parties shall adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs. These policies and measures will demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead in modifying longer-term trends in anthropogenic emissions consistent with the objective of the Convention, recognizing that the return by the end of the present decade to earlier levels of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol would contribute to such modification, and taking into account the differences in these Parties' starting points and approaches, economic structures and resource bases, the need to maintain strong and sustainable economic growth, available technologies and other individual circumstances, as well as the need for equitable and appropriate contributions by each of these Parties to the global effort regarding that objective. These Parties may implement such policies and measures jointly with other Parties and may assist other Parties in contributing to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and, in particular, that of this subparagraph;

The signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention constitute two groups of countries: (1) the developed countries, as listed in Annex I to the Convention, also referred to as “Annex I countries”, and (2) the developing countries, or “non-Annex I countries”, being all other countries which have ratified the UN Climate Change Convention. The Netherlands is an Annex I country. Article 4, paragraph 2 of the UN Climate Change Convention stipulates the following in particular regarding the Annex I countries:

3. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost. To achieve this, such policies and measures should take into account different socio-economic contexts, be comprehensive, cover all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases and adaptation, and comprise all economic sectors. Efforts to address climate change may be carried out cooperatively by interested Parties.

1. The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.

The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Recalling also that States have, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their own environmental and developmental policies, and the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction,

The purpose of the Convention, in brief, is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby prevent the undesired consequences of climate change. Among other things, Its opening words state the following:

In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter: the UN Climate Change Convention) was agreed and signed under the responsibility of the UN. The UN Climate Change Convention entered into effect on 21 March 1994. Currently, 195 Member States have ratified the convention, including the Netherlands and (the predecessor of) the European Union (both in 1993).

In light of climate change, agreements have been made and instruments have been developed in an international and European context in order to counter the problems of climate change, which have impacted the national legal and policy frameworks.

As a reference point, the gap in 2030 relative to business-as-usual emissions in that year (68 Gt CO2e) is 26 Gt CO2e. The good news is that the potential to reduce global emissions relative to the baseline is estimated to be 29 Gt CO2e, that is, larger than this gap. This means that it is feasible to close the 2030 gap and stay within the 2°C limit.”

The emissions gap in 2030 is therefore estimated to be 14–17 Gt CO2e (56 minus 42 and 59 minus 42). This is equivalent to about a third of current global greenhouse emissions (or 26–32 per cent of 2012 emission levels).

As for expected emissions in 2030, the range of the pledge cases in 2020 (52–54 Gt CO2e) was extrapolated to give median estimates of 56–59 Gt CO2e in 2030.

In contrast to previous reports, the Emissions Gap Report 2014 mainly focuses on the “carbon dioxide emissions budget”. The UNEP concludes that in order to be able to maintain the target of a maximum global temperature rise of 2°C above the pre-industrial level (hereinafter: the 2°C target), the CO2 budget may not exceed 3,670 gigatonne (hereinafter: Gt). According to the UNEP, at the beginning of the nineteenth century this budget totaled about 2,900 Gt CO2, of which about 1,000 Gt remains. In the report, the UNEP investigated – in short –the best way to spend this budget (and thereby: which reductions are required). Attention was also paid to the question, given the 2°C target, at what point the world needs to be CO2-neutral (a net result of anthropogenic positive and negative CO2 emissions of zero). The UNEP has depicted this in the following figure:

For Annex I parties, total emissions as a group of countries for the four pledge cases are estimated to be 3–16 percent below 1990 levels in 2020. For non-Annex I parties, total emissions are estimated to be 7–9 percent lower than business-as-usual emissions. This implies that the aggregate Annex I countries’ emission goals fall short of reaching the 25–40 percent reduction by 2020, compared with 1990, suggested in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (…).”

(…) although later-action scenarios might reach the same temperature targets as their least-cost counterparts, later-action scenarios pose greater risks of climate impacts for four reasons. First delaying action allows more greenhouse gases to build-up in the atmosphere in the near term, thereby increasing the risk that later emission reductions will be unable to compensate for this build up. Second, the risk of overshooting climate targets for both atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and global temperature increase is higher with later-action scenarios. Third, the near-term rate of temperature is higher, which implies greater near-term climate impacts. Lastly, when action is delayed, options to achieve stringent levels of climate protection are increasingly lost.”

Based on a much larger number of studies than in 2012, this update concludes that so-called later-action scenarios have several implications compared to least cost scenario’s, including: (i) much higher rates of global emission reductions in the medium term; (ii) greater lock-in of carbon-intensive infrastructure; (iii) greater dependence of certain technologies in the medium-term; (iv) greater costs of mitigation in the medium- and long term, and greater risks of economic disruption; and (v) greater risks of failing to meet the 2°C target. For these reasons later-action scenarios may not be feasible in practise and, as a result, temperature targets could be missed.

(…) Least-cost emission pathways consistent with a likely chance of keeping global mean temperature increases below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels have a median level of 44 GtCO2e in 2020 (range: 38–47 GtCO2e). Assuming full implementation of the pledges, the emissions gap thus amounts to between 8–12 GtCO2e per year in 2020 (…).

The UNEP, referred to in 2.8, has issued annual reports about the “emissions gap” since 2010. The gap is the difference between the desired emissions level in a certain year and the level of emissions anticipated for that year based on the reduction goals pledged by the countries concerned.

Per capita emissions in the Netherlands in 2010 were 12.78 tons CO2-eq. and in 2012 11.72 tons CO2-eq. In China, per capita emissions in 2012 were 9.04 tons CO2-eq.; in the United States 19.98 tons CO2-eq.; in Brazil 15.05 tons CO2-eq.; in India 2.43 tons CO2-eq. and in Russia 19.58 tons CO2-eq.

In 2010, the Dutch share in the global emissions was 0.42%; the Chinese share in that year was 21.97%; the share of the United States was 13.19%; the total share of the European Union (then 27 countries) was 9.5%; the Brazilian share was 5.7%; India’s share was 5.44% and Russia’s share was 5.11%.

The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) is a database in which a country’s emission data are collected based on which the global emission of greenhouse gases can be determined. EDGAR is a joint project of the European Commission and the PBL.

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) is the Dutch national institute for meteorology and seismology established by law. The institute provides the best information available in the field of weather, climate and earthquakes in support of the security, accessibility, liveability and prosperity of the Netherlands. The KNMI represents the Netherlands in the IPCC and other bodies.

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) is a national independent research institute working in the field of the environment, nature and spatial planning. It conducts research, both when asked and on its own initiative, in support of political and administrative policies. Established in 2008, the institute currently forms part of the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment.

efforts to constrain emissions) exceed 450 parts per million (ppm) CO2eq by 2030 and reach CO2eq concentration levels between 750 and more than 1300 ppm CO2eq by 2100. This is similar to the range in atmospheric concentration levels between the RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 pathways in 2100. For comparison, the CO2eq concentration in 2011 is estimated to be 430 ppm (uncertainty range 340 – 520 ppm).”

“Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, emissions growth is expected to persist driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Baseline scenarios, those without additional mitigation, result in global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 from 3.7°C to 4.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels10 (median values; the range is 2.5°C to 7.8°C when including climate uncertainty (…) (high confidence). The emission scenarios collected for this assessment represent full radiative forcing including GHGs, tropospheric ozone, aerosols and albedo change. Baseline scenarios (scenarios without explicit additional

“Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010 with larger absolute decadal increases toward the end of this period (high confidence). Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average by 1.0 gigatonne carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) (2.2%) per year from 2000 to 2010 compared to 0.4 GtCO2eq (1.3%) per year from 1970 to 2000 (…). Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from 2000 to 2010 and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO2eq/yr in 2010. The global economic crisis 2007/2008 only temporarily reduced emissions.”

with annual GHG emissions above 55 GtCO2eq in 2030 are characterized by substantially higher rates of emissions reductions from 2030 to 2050 (…); much more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy over this period (…); a larger reliance on CDR technologies in the long-term (…); and higher transitional and long-term economic impacts (…). Due to these increased mitigation challenges, many models with annual 2030 GHG emissions higher than 55 GtCO2eq could not produce scenarios reaching atmospheric concentration levels that make it as likely as not that temperature change will remain below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels.”

Delaying mitigation efforts beyond those in place today through 2030 is estimated to substantially increase the difficulty of the transition to low longer-term emissions levels and narrow the range of options consistent with maintaining temperature change below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels (high confidence). Cost-effective mitigation scenarios that make it at least as likely as not that temperature change will remain below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels (2100 concentrations between about 450 and 500 ppm CO2eq) are typically characterized by annual GHG emissions in 2030 of roughly between 30 GtCO2eq and 50 GtCO2eq (Figure SPM.5, left panel). Scenarios

Mitigation scenarios reaching about 450 ppm CO2eq in 2100 typically involve temporary overshoot of atmospheric concentrations, as do many scenarios reaching about 500 ppm to 550 ppm CO2eq in 2100. Depending on the level of the overshoot, overshoot scenarios typically rely on the availability and widespread deployment of BECCS and afforestation in the second half of the century. The availability and scale of these and other Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies and methods are uncertain and CDR technologies and methods are, to varying degrees, associated with challenges and risks (high confidence) (…). CDR is also prevalent in many scenarios without overshoot to compensate for residual emissions from sectors where mitigation is more expensive. There is only limited evidence on the potential for large-scale deployment of BECCS, large-scale afforestation, and other CDR technologies and methods.

Scenarios reaching atmospheric concentration levels of about 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 (consistent with a likely chance to keep temperature change below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels) include substantial cuts in anthropogenic GHG emissions by mid-century through large-scale changes in energy systems and potentially land use (high confidence). Scenarios reaching these concentrations by 2100 are characterized by lower global GHG emissions in 2050 than in 2010, 40% to 70% lower globally, and emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below in 2100. In scenarios reaching 500 ppm CO2eq by 2100, 2050 emissions levels are 25% to 55% lower than in 2010 globally. In scenarios reaching 550 ppm CO2eq, emissions in 2050 are from 5% above 2010 levels to 45% below 2010 levels globally (…). At the global level, scenarios reaching 450 ppm CO2eq are also characterized by more rapid improvements of energy efficiency, a tripling to nearly a quadrupling of the share of zero- and low-carbon energy supply from renewables, nuclear energy and fossil energy with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), or bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) by the year 2050 (…). These scenarios describe a wide range of changes in land use, reflecting different assumptions about the scale of bioenergy production, afforestation, and reduced deforestation. All of these emissions, energy, and land-use changes vary across regions. Scenarios reaching higher concentrations include similar changes, but on a slower timescale. On the other hand, scenarios reaching lower concentrations require these changes on a faster timescale. […]

“Mitigation scenarios in which it is likely that the temperature change caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions can be kept to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels are characterized by atmospheric concentrations in 2100 of about 450 ppm CO2eq (high confidence). Mitigation scenarios reaching concentration levels of about 500 ppm CO2eq by 2100 are more likely than not to limit temperature change to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, unless they temporarily ‘overshoot’ concentration levels of roughly 530 ppm CO2eq before 2100, in which case they are about as likely as not to achieve that goal. Scenarios that reach 530 to 650 ppm CO2eq concentrations by 2100 are more unlikely than likely to keep temperature change below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Scenarios that exceed about 650 ppm CO2eq by 2100 are unlikely to limit temperature change to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Mitigation scenarios in which temperature increase is more likely than not to be less than 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels by 2100 are characterized by concentrations in 2100 of below 430 ppm CO2eq. Temperature peaks during the century and then declines in these scenarios. (…)

In the report, the IPCC also concluded that if concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have stabilised to about 450 ppm in 2100, there is a 66% chance that the rise of the global temperature will not exceed 2°C. In order to achieve a concentration level of 450 ppm in 2100, the global greenhouse emissions in 2050 will have to be 40 to 70% lower than those in the year 2010. The total of emissions will have to have been reduced to zero or even to below zero (as compared to the comparative year) by 2100: 8

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes (…). This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (…). In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950’s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millenia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased (…)

In 2013-2014, the IPCC published its latest insights into the scope, effects and causes of climate change. In the report concerned (AR5/2013) the IPCC, in accordance with AR4/2007, established that the earth has been warming as a result of the high increase of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution (base year 1850) and that this has been caused by human activity, particularly the combustion of oil, natural gas and coal as well as deforestation: 7

A table comparable to the one in 2.13 has been included in the Technical Summary of the contribution of Working Group III to AR4/2007 (p. 39), in which the following is stated (p. 90):

Following an analysis of the various scenarios about the question which emission reductions are needed to achieve certain particular climate goals, the IPCC concluded that in order to reach a maximum of 450 ppm, the total emission of greenhouse gases by the Annex I countries (including the Netherlands, as explained below) must be lower than in 1990. In this scenario, the total emission of these countries will have to have been reduced by 80 to 95% compared to 1990. See the table below. 5

“This ‘best estimate’ assumption shows that the most stringent (category I) scenarios could limit global mean temperature increases to 2°C–2.4°C above pre-industrial levels, at equilibrium, requiring emissions to peak within 10 years. Similarly, limiting temperature increases to 2°C above preindustrial levels can only be reached at the lowest end of the concentration interval found in the scenarios of category I (i.e. about 450 ppmv CO2-eq using ‘best estimate’ assumptions). By comparison, using the same ‘best estimate’ assumptions, category II scenarios could limit the increase to 2.8°C–3.2°C above pre-industrial levels at equilibrium, requiring emissions to peak within the next 25 years, whilst category IV scenarios could limit the increase to 3.2°C–4°C above pre-industrial at equilibrium requiring emissions to peak within the next 55 years. Note that Table 3.10 category IV scenarios could result in temperature increases as high as 6.1°C above pre-industrial levels, when the likely range for the value of climate sensitivity is taken into account.”

This table (after I) shows that in order to limit the temperature rise to 2-2.4°C, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have to be stabilised at a level of 445-490 ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO2-eq (CO2 and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This unit, which hereinafter is referred to with the abbreviation “ppm”, designates the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The report states that, assuming a climate sensitivity of 3°C, a temperature rise of 2°C maximum can only be achieved when the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is stabilised at about 450 ppm: 4

a. Warming for each stabilization class is calculated based on the variation of climate sensitivity between 2°C —4.5°C, which corresponds to the likely range of climate sensitivity as defined by Meehl et al. (2007,Chapter 10).

“Table 3.10: Properties of emissions pathways for alternative ranges of C02 and C02-eq stabilization targets. Post-TAR stabilization scenarios in the scenario database (see also Sections 3.2 and 3.3); data source: after Nakicenovic et al., 2006 and Hanaoka et al., 2006)

In this report, the IPCC provided insight into options for not exceeding the 2°C limit based on the table below. 3 To this end, the IPCC provided an overview of the link between the various emission scenarios, stabilisation targets and temperature change, while taking account of a climate sensitivity of probably ( >66%) 2-4.5°C. “Climate sensitivity” represents the extent to which temperature is expected to respond to a doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. The report proceeds to make calculations with a “best estimate” climate sensitivity of 3°C.

In this report, the IPCC – in so far as currently still relevant – established that a global temperature rise of 2°C above the pre-industrial level (up to the year 1850) creates the risk of dangerous, irreversible change of climate: 2

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific body established by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988, under the auspices of the UN. The IPCC aims to acquire insight into all aspects of climate change, such as the risks, consequences and options for adaptation and mitigation. Mitigation (reducing the problem) is intended to prevent or limit further climate change. Adaptation (adapting to the consequences) is aimed at attempting to make nature, society and the economy less vulnerable to a changing climate. The IPCC itself does not conduct research nor does it keep climate-related data, but studies and assesses the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide and publishes reports about it.

It is also clear that collective, global actions are required to keep climate change within acceptable limits. In this context of collective actions, the 25%-40% reduction you refer to in your letter was always the objective. The EU’s offer to pursue a 30% reduction by 2020, on the condition that other countries pursue similar reductions, falls within that range. It is a major problem that the current collective, global efforts are falling short and fail to monitor the limitation of the average global temperature rise to 2 degrees. I will cooperate with national and international partners to launch and support initiatives to tackle this (…).

“I share your concerns over the absence of sufficient international action as well as your concerns that both the scale of the problem and the urgency of a successful approach in the public debate are insufficiently tangible (…).

The Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, as a part of the State, is responsible (among other things) for ensuring a healthy and safe living environment, managing scarce resources and environmental compartments, and promoting the development of the Netherlands as a safe, liveable, accessible and competitive delta.

Regarding the meaning of the term “sustainability”, in its by-laws Urgenda refers to the definition of sustainable development in the 1987 report of the World Commission on Environment and Development of the United Nations (UN), also known as the Brundtland Report, which reads as follows:

Urgenda (a contraction of “urgent agenda”) arose from the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (Drift) at Erasmus University Rotterdam, an institute for the transition to a sustainable society. Urgenda is a citizens’ platform with members from various domains in society, such as the business community, media communication, knowledge institutes, government and non-governmental organisations. The platform is involved in the development of plans and measures to prevent climate change.

The State argues as follows – also briefly summarised. Urgenda partially has no cause of action, namely in so far as it defends the rights and interests of current or future generations in other countries. Aside from that, the claims are not allowable, as there is no (real threat of) unlawful actions towards Urgenda attributable to the State, while the requirements of Book 6, Section 162 of the Dutch Civil Code and Book 3, Section 296 of the Dutch Civil Code have also not been met. The State acknowledges the need to limit the global temperature rise up to (less than) 2°C, but its efforts are, in fact, aimed at achieving this objective. The current and future climate policies, which cannot be seen as being separate from the international agreements nor from standards and (emission) targets formulated by the European Union, are expected to make this feasible. The State has no legal obligation – either arising from national or international law – to take measures to achieve the reduction targets stated in Urgenda’s claims. The implementation of the Dutch climate policy, which contains mitigation and adaptation measures, is not in breach of Articles 2 and 8 of the ECHR. Allowing (part of) the claims is furthermore contrary to the State’s discretionary power. This would also interfere with the system of separation of powers and harm the State’s negotiating position in international politics.

Briefly summarized, Urgenda supports its claims as follows. The current global greenhouse gas emission levels, particularly the CO2 level, leads to or threatens to lead to a global warming of over 2 °C, and thus also to dangerous climate change with severe and even potentially catastrophic consequences. Such an emission level is unlawful towards Urgenda, as this is contrary to the due care exercised in society. Moreover, it constitutes an infringement of, or is contrary to, Articles 2 and 8 of the ECHR, on which both Urgenda and the parties it represents can rely. The greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands additionally contribute to the (imminent) hazardous climate change. The Dutch emissions that form part of the global emission levels are excessive, in absolute terms and even more so per capita. This makes the greenhouse gas emissions of the Netherlands unlawful. The fact that emissions occur on the territory of the State and the State, as a sovereign power, has the capability to manage, control and regulate these emissions, means that the State has “systemic responsibility” for the total greenhouse gas emission level of the Netherlands and the pertinent policy. In view of this, the fact that the emission level of the Netherlands (substantially) contributes to one of several causes of hazardous climate change can and should be attributed to the State. In view of Article 21 of the Dutch Constitution, among other things, the State can be held accountable for this contribution towards causing dangerous climate change. Moreover, under national and international law (including the international-law “no harm” principle, the UN Climate Change Convention and the TFEU) the State has an individual obligation and responsibility to ensure a reduction of the emission level of the Netherlands in order to prevent dangerous climate change. This duty of care principally means that a reduction of 25% to 40%, compared to 1990, should be realised in the Netherlands by 2020. A reduction of this extent is not only necessary to continue to have a prospect of a limitation of global warming of up to (less than) 2°C, but is furthermore the most cost-effective. Alternatively, the Netherlands will need to have achieved a 40% reduction by 2030, compared to 1990. With its current climate policy, the State seriously fails to meet this duty of care and therefore acts unlawfully.

(9) to publish and keep published on the homepage of the website www.rijksoverheid.nl the text referred to in (8), starting on the date of publication and also during two consecutive weeks, in such a manner that the text appears on screen clearly legible for all visitors to the website, without the need for any mouse-clicking, and which has to be clicked to be closed before being able to go to other pages of the website;

(8) to publish or have published the text contained in the reply and also change of claim or a text to be drawn up by the court in the proper administration of justice immediately on the request of Urgenda, at a date to be determined by Urgenda and to be communicated to the State at least two weeks in advance, in no more than six national daily newspapers to be designated by Urgenda, full-page and page-filling, and by means of logos or other marks clearly and directly recognisable as originating from the State or the government;

(7) principally: to reduce or have reduced the joint volume of annual greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands that it will have been reduced by 40% by the end of 2020, in any case by at least 25%, compared to 1990;

(3) of all countries which emit a significant number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, per capita emissions in the Netherlands are one of the highest in the world;

(2) the hazardous climate change that is caused by a warming up of the earth of 2°C or more, in any case of about 4 °C, compared to the preindustrial age, which according to the best scientific insights is anticipated with the current emission trends, is threatening large groups of people and human rights;

4 THE ASSESSMENT

A. Introduction

4.1. This case is essentially about the question whether the State has a legal obligation towards Urgenda to place further limits on greenhouse gas emissions – particularly CO2 emissions –in addition to those arising from the plans of the Dutch government, acting on behalf of the State. Urgenda argues that the State does not pursue an adequate climate policy and therefore acts contrary to its duty of care towards Urgenda and the parties it represents as well as, more generally speaking, Dutch society. Urgenda also argues that because of the Dutch contribution to the climate policy, the State wrongly exposes the international community to the risk of dangerous climate change, resulting in serious and irreversible damage to human health and the environment. Based on these grounds, which are briefly summarised here, Urgenda claims, except for several declaratory decisions, that the State should be ordered to limit, or have limited, the joint volume of the annual greenhouse gas emissions of the Netherlands so that these emissions will have been reduced by 40% and at least by 25% in 2020, compared to 1990. In case this claim is denied, Urgenda argues for an order to have this volume limited by 40% in 2030, also compared to 1990.

4.2. For its part, the State argues that the Netherlands – also based on European agreements – pursues an adequate climate policy. Therefore, and for many other reasons, the State believes Urgenda’s claims cannot succeed. The key motivation is that the State cannot be forced at law to pursue another climate policy. The terms “the State” and “the Netherlands” will be used interchangeably below, depending on the context. The term “the State” refers to the legal person that is party to these proceedings, while the term “the Netherlands” refers to the same entity in an international context. The government is the State’s executive body.

4.3. The court faces a dispute with complicated and “climate-related” issues. The court does not have independent expertise in this area and will base its assessment on that which the Parties have submitted and the facts admitted between them. This concerns both current scientific knowledge and (other) data the State acknowledges or deems to be correct. Many of these data are available under section 2 of this judgment (“The facts”). An analysis of these data, which are sometimes repeated, will enable the court to determine the severity of the climate change problem. Based on this information, the court will assess the claim and the defence put up against it. Prior to this, the court will assess Urgenda’s standing. If Urgenda is not in a position to confront the State about the issues that are the subject of these proceedings, the court is unable to proceed to assess the merits of the claim. This more in-depth assessment (if applicable) will contain all further questions, including those pertaining to the absence, or not, of the State’s legal obligation towards Urgenda, and the question whether the court’s options also include imposing the order claimed by Urgenda. B. Urgenda’s standing (acting on its own behalf)

4.4. Under Book 3, Section 303 of the Dutch Civil Code, an individual or legal person is only entitled to bring an action to the civil court if he has sufficient own, personal interest in the claim. Under Book 3, Section 303a of the Dutch Civil Code, a foundation or association with full legal capacity may also bring an action to the court pertaining to the protection of general interests or the collective interests of other persons, in so far as the foundation or association represents these general or collective interests based on the objectives formulated in its by-laws. However, there is a proviso, namely that the legal person concerned can only bring its action to the court if he, in the given circumstances, has made sufficient efforts to enter into a dialogue with the defendant to achieve having his requirements met (paragraph 2).

4.5. The position of the State regarding Urgenda’s standing, in so far as this party acts on its own behalf, can be summarised as follows. The State does not challenge that Urgenda, in view of the interests it protects under its by-laws, has a case when on behalf of the current generations of Dutch citizens protests the emission of greenhouse gases from Dutch territory. Nor does the State contest Urgenda’s standpoint that the order to reduce emissions in these proceedings against the State in principle belongs to the group of claims the Dutch legislature finds allowable and has made possible with Book 3, Section 303a of the Dutch Civil Code. Regarding the question whether Urgenda has a case in so far as it defends the interests of future generations of Dutch citizens (and that “in perpetuity”), the State defers to the court’s opinion. The State argues that Urgenda has no case in so far as it defends the rights or interests of current or future generations in other countries.

4.6. The court finds as follows. Urgenda’s claims against the State indeed belong to the group of claims the Dutch legislature finds allowable and has wanted to make possible with Book 3, Section 303a of the Dutch Civil Code. It was set out in the Explanatory Memorandum that an environmental organisation’s claim in order to protect the environment without an identifiable group of persons needing protection, would be allowable under the proposed scheme.22

4.7. Article 2 of Urgenda’s by-laws stipulate that it strives for a more sustainable society, “beginning in the Netherlands”. This demonstrates prioritisation – as it rightly argues – and not a limitation to Dutch territory. The interests Urgenda wants to defend appear to be – from its objective formulated in its by-laws – primarily but not solely Dutch interests. Moreover, the term “sustainable society” has an inherent international (and global) dimension. As based on its by-laws Urgenda is defending the interest of a “sustainable society”, it actually protects an interest that by its nature crosses national borders. Therefore, Urgenda can partially base its claims on the fact that the Dutch emissions also have consequences for persons outside the Dutch national borders, since these claims are directed at such emissions.

4.8. The term “sustainable society” also has an intergenerational dimension, which is expressed in the definition of “sustainability” in the Brundtland Report referred to under 2.3: “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” In defending the right of not just the current but also the future generations to availability of natural resources and a safe and healthy living environment, it also strives for the interest of a sustainable society. This interest of a sustainable society is also formulated in the legal standard invoked by Urgenda for the protection against activities which, in its view, are not “sustainable” and threaten to lead to serious threats to ecosystems and human societies. In this context, reference can also be made to Article 2 of the UN Climate Change Convention. Relying on Articles 2 and 8 ECHR, Urgenda’s claim is an extension of its objectives formulated in its by-laws. After all, these stipulations are also aimed at protecting the interests Urgenda seeks to defend.

4.9. Seeing as it is not in dispute that Urgenda has met the requirement of Book 3, Section 305a of the Dutch Civil Code that it has made sufficient efforts to attain its claim by entering into consultations with the State, the court concludes that Urgenda’s claims, in so far as it acts on its own behalf, are allowable to the fullest extent.

4.10. The court’s judgment about Urgenda’s standing is sufficient for now. On the pages below, the court will focus on Urgenda’s position for the time being. The position of the (886) principals on whose behalf Urgenda is also acting will be discussed at the end. C. Current climate science and climate policy The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the IPCC



4.11. Well before the 1990s, there was a growing realisation among scientists that human caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gas emissions possibly led to a global temperature rise, and that this could have catastrophic consequences for man and the environment. This realisation led to the UN Climate Change Convention in 1992, of which the objective is formulated in Article 2, referred to in 2.37, as follows: to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. As stated previously, 195 countries, including the Netherlands and the EU, have endorsed this objective.

4.12. The UN Climate Change Convention also made provisions for the establishment of the IPCC as a global knowledge institute. The IPCC reports have bundled the knowledge of hundreds of scientists and to a great extent represent the current climate science. The IPCC is also an intergovernmental organisation. The IPCC’s findings serve as a starting point for the COP decisions, which are taken by the signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention during their climate conferences. Similarly, the Dutch and European decision-making processes pertaining to the climate policies to be pursued are also based on the climate science findings of the IPCC. The court – and also the Parties – therefore considers these findings as facts. The IPCC reports

4.13. The IPCC’s reports have allowed for scientific uncertainty, a concept which comprises the question to what extent it is possible, based on scientific knowledge, to give a definitive answer about the probability of a negative effect occurring. In climate science, it has to be established (i) to what extent the current anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will increase the future greenhouse gas concentration and (ii), given many other circumstances, will result in dangerous climate change. The IPCC has stated in each of its reports how certain or uncertain its observations and findings are.

4.14. In AR4/2007 and AR5/2013, the IPCC has established that a worldwide climate change is taking place and that it is very probable that human actions, particularly the combustion of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) and deforestation, are the main causes of the observed global warming since the middle of the nineteenth century. In AR4/2007, the IPCC furthermore has stated that a temperature rise of more than 2 °C over the pre-industrial level would cause dangerous and irreversible climate change which would threaten the environment and man. This has resulted in the formulation of the aforementioned 2°C target. The IPCC has not changed this target in AR5/2013. The signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention, including, as stated previously, the Netherlands and the EU, have explicitly acknowledged these findings during the climate conference of 2010 (Cancun Agreements). The court therefore finds that the 2 °C target has globally been taken as the starting point for the development of climate policies. Incidentally, this comes with a restriction for a number of countries in the Pacific Ocean, such as Tuvalu and Fiji, for which dangerous climate change, with the associated risk of destruction of their entire territories, probably will already occur at a temperature rise of 1.5 °C. The signatories therefore decided in Cancun to “maintain a view on” a 1.5 °C target.

4.15. The IPCC reports referred to here also state that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions need to be decreased substantially in order to prevent dangerous climate change. This, too, has been acknowledged by the signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention, including during the 2007 climate conference (Bali Action Plan) and again in 2010 (Cancun). From AR5/2013, supported by publications of other knowledge institutes, such as EDGAR (see 2.25) and UNEP (see 2.29), it is apparent that the global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is increasing rather than decreasing. The court also considers this information as certain.

4.16. It is not disputed between the Parties that dangerous climate change has severe consequences on a global and local level. The IPCC has reported that the ice at the North and South Poles as well as alpine glaciers are melting due to global warming, which will result in a rise in sea levels. Moreover, the warming of the oceans is expected to result in increased hurricane activity, expansion of desert areas and the extinction of many animal species because of the heat, the latter causing a decline in biodiversity. People will suffer damage to their living environment because of these changes, for instance, a deterioration of food production. Furthermore, the temperature rise will lead to heat-related deaths, particularly among the elderly and children. The IPCC reports also state that the current temperature rise causes damage to man and the environment. The 2 °C target, also assumed by the Netherlands, is intended to prevent climate change from becoming irreversible: without intervention, the aforementioned processes will become unstoppable.

4.17. The reports of the PBL and KNMI are based on the IPCC reports and also describe that in the next hundred years the Netherlands will face higher average temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and a sea level rise. Chances of heatwaves in the summer will increase and extreme precipitation will become more prevalent. The basins of major rivers will on the one hand have to contend with more extreme precipitation, while on the other hand chances of a decreased amount of supplied water are high in the summer. High levels of river discharge, in combination with rising sea levels and high water levels at sea, could more frequently lead to dangerous situations in the downstream areas. Less water in the summer means, among other things, higher risks of salinization in the coastal areas and less freshwater for agriculture. The Netherlands will also feel the consequences of climate change elsewhere in the world. Some import products will become more expensive.23

4.18. The aforementioned considerations lead to the following intermediate conclusion. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change. A highly hazardous situation for man and the environment will occur with a temperature rise of over 2 °C compared to the pre-industrial level. It is therefore necessary to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which requires a reduction of the current anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

4.19. Given the severity of the problem of hazardous climate change, climate scientists have investigated with which degree of probability current human actions have negative or positive effects on future climate change. Moreover, there is scientific uncertainty about the question when, where and to what extent which specific effects will occur, but also about the effectiveness and possible negative side-effects of certain precautionary measures. Climate science (scientific research) therefore focuses on risk regulation: determining the desired convention and possible adverse effects. In view of this, the IPCC reports have described different scenarios which offer an insight into the consequences of a certain emission level for the environment and into the costs of achieving a certain emission level. Furthermore, it is being investigated with which scenario the 2 °C target can be achieved in the most cost-effective way (meaning: in the most efficient way, also in view of the related costs). The maximum level of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere



4.20. In AR4/2007, the IPCC has established that in order to achieve the 2 °C target the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have to be stabilised at 450 ppm, which will be referred to below as “the 450 scenario”. It is not disputed between the Parties that there is a 50% chance of achieving the climate target with the 450 scenario. The signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention have reported about the 450 scenario by making a reference to the AR4/2007 in the Bali Action Plan (the COP decision of 2007). The court does not deduce an explicit choice for the 450 scenario from this reference. The section referred to (see 2.16) shows that the signatories are at least focused on a scenario in which emissions are stabilised at a level of 450–550 ppm. The pleadings and other documents show that in 2007 the European institutions started from the idea that the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere would have to remain well below 550 ppm and in the long term would have to stabilise at a level of about 450 ppm. As evidenced by these documents, this would mean that global emissions will reach a peak in 2025 and subsequently should decrease to 50% by 2050 (see 2.60).

4.21. In AR5/2013, the IPCC made a more favourable estimate of the chances that the climate target will be reached with the 450 scenario, namely at over 66%. When starting from a concentration level of 500 ppm in 2100, those chances are over 50% according to the IPCC. However, the concentration level may not (temporarily) exceed the level of 530 ppm in the period before 2100. The chances that the climate target will not be achieved in that case are 33 to 66%. It is assumed that with scenarios with a concentration of 530 to 650 ppm, the chances of attaining the climate target are less than 33%. The documents submitted do not show that the signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention have explicitly responded to these scenarios.

4.22. From the IPCC reports listed here, the court concludes that in view of risk management and from scientific considerations, there is a strong preference for the 450 scenario, as the risks are much higher with a 500 scenario. In order to maintain a 50% chance of being able to prevent hazardous climate change, the current scientific position stipulates that the level of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere may not exceed 530 ppm. The reduction targets

4.23. In AR4/2007, the IPCC also determined that in order to prevent the concentration level from exceeding 450 ppm, global emissions of CO2-eq must to be substantially reduced. In order to achieve a concentration level of 450 ppm the total emissions of Annex I countries (which include the Netherlands and the EU as a whole) will at most have to be 20 to 40% lower in 2020 compared to 1990 – with due regard for a fair distribution. In 2050, the total emissions of these countries will need to have been reduced by 80 to 95% compared to 1990. The non-Annex I countries will also have to reduce their emissions substantially. The objective is to initiate a reduction before 2015 and to reduce the global emissions by 50% in 2050 compared to the year 2000.24

4.24. In 2007, the signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention, with reference to AR4/2007, acknowledged in the Bali Action Plan that “deep cuts” in the greenhouse gas emissions were urgent and necessary to prevent dangerous climate change. The section regarding this states that an emission reduction of 10-40% is required to keep concentration levels in the atmosphere below 450-550 ppm in 2020, and a reduction of 40-95% by 2050, both compared to the 1990 levels. During the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, the Ad Hoc Working Group of Annex I countries took a decision and expressly acknowledged that they will have to have limited their emissions by 25-40% by 2020, compared to 1990. In this decision, the Annex I countries urged themselves to adjust their reduction targets accordingly.

4.25. In the European context, in response to AR4/2007, the European Council considered that the industrialised countries should take the lead and commit to a collective 30% reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, compared to 1990. The Council also believed that the countries should also do this in order to reduce their collective emissions by 60-80% by 2050, compared to 1990. Therefore, the European Council established the reduction target at 30% in 2020, provided that other industrialised countries and economically more advanced countries commit to similar emission reductions. Therefore, the European Council commits to realising an international emission reduction of 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, and to a 30% reduction target if the aforementioned condition is met. However, the condition has not been met so far, keeping the EU-wide reduction target at 20% for 2020. Various policy documents of European institutions state that the EU’s 20% reduction target are not in line with the target for industrialised countries established by the IPCC, which after all is aimed at a 25-40% reduction in 2020 and an 80-95% reduction in 2050 (see 2.58, 2.61, 2.63 and 2.64).

4.26. In the period 2007-2009, the Netherlands initially focused its climate policy on a reduction target of 30% in 2020 compared to 1990, which was therefore higher than the EU’s target of 20%. However, this reduction target deviated at a later stage. In these proceedings, the State has stated that the Dutch climate policy is based on a minimum reduction target of 16% in 2020 (compared to 2005) for the non-ETS sectors and 21% in 2020 (compared to 2005) for the ETS sectors. At the hearing, the State confirmed that the combined reduction for both sectors is expected to be 14 to 17% in 2020 compared to 1990.

4.27. In AR5/2013, the IPCC established that the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 will have to be 40 to 70% lower than in the year 2010 to realise a concentration level of 450 ppm in 2100. In the year 2100, total emissions will need to have been reduced to at least zero or lower. At a concentration level of 500 ppm, a 25 to 55% reduction is expected for 2050. During the 2011 climate conference in Durban, agreement was reached that a new legally binding climate convention or protocol would have to be concluded in 2015. During the 2014 climate conference in Lima, the signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention agreed to submit their own emission reduction targets before the upcoming climate conference in Paris.

4.28. In 2014, the EU announced that it was striving for a reduction target of 40% by 2030 compared to 1990. The Netherlands supports this reduction target as well as the EU’s reduction target of 80% for 2050, both compared to 1990. The State has failed to explain which reduction target will apply to the Netherlands.

4.29. The foregoing leads to the further intermediate conclusion that according to the current scientific position, the prevention of dangerous climate change calls for a 450 scenario with an associated reduction target for the Annex I countries, which includes the Netherlands and the EU as a whole, of 25-40% in 2020, and 80-95% in 2050. The EU and the Netherlands have acknowledged this finding as such and (initially) focused on an emission reduction target of 30%. However, the EU subsequently refused to commit to more than a 20% reduction, with the Netherlands joining this path from about 2010. For 2030, the EU and the Netherlands have committed to a 40% reduction target; and to an 80% reduction target for 2050. This brings the reduction target back in line with the IPCC’s proposed reduction target for a 450 scenario for 2050. The effect of the reduction measures thus far

4.30. The EDGAR database shows that global emissions are increasing substantially despite the measures that have been taken so far. The UNEP reports reveal that the Annex I countries have failed to meet the 25-40% emission reduction target in 2020, which has left a “budget” of about 1,000 Gt. The UNEP has established that there is a discrepancy between the reduction that is required to achieve the climate objective and the reduction promised by the signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention. At the same time, the institute has established that it will still be possible to close this gap in 2030. Conclusions and specification of the scope of the dispute

4.31. The court has made the following conclusions based on the foregoing. - i) In AR4/2007, the 450 scenario is presented as necessary for a more than 50% chance of realising the 2 °C target, according to the parties. In AR5/2013, the IPCC established this chance at 66%. In order to realise the 450 scenario, Annex I countries need to attain a reduction resulting in an emission in 2020 of 35-40% below the level of 1990.

- ii) In accordance with this, the Netherlands has cooperated with the decision in Cancun (2010) in which it was established that the Annex I countries at least have to realise a 25-40% reduction in 2020.

- iii) In an international context the EU has committed to a reduction target of 20% for 2020, with an increase to 30% (both compared to 1990) if other Annex I countries commit to a similar reduction target. The standard of 20% for the EU is below the 30% standard deemed necessary by scientists.

- iv) The Netherlands has committed to the EU target of 30% reduction in 2020, provided that the other Annex I countries do the same.

- v) Up to about 2010, the Netherlands assumed a reduction target of 30% for 2020 compared to 1990, and after 2010 took on a reduction target that is derived from the EU reduction target of 20% and which is expected to result in a total reduction of 14-17% in 2020.

- vi) The Dutch reduction target is therefore below the standard deemed necessary by climate science and the international climate policy, meaning that in order to prevent dangerous climate change Annex I countries (including the Netherlands) must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25-40% by 2020 to realise the 2°C target.

4.32. From the foregoing it follows that it is currently very probable that within several decades dangerous climate change will occur with irreversible consequences for man and the environment. The State acknowledges that this is a serious problem and that it is also necessary to avert this threat by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. The dispute between the Parties therefore does not concern the need for mitigation, but rather the pace, or the level, at which the State needs to start reducing greenhouse gas emissions. By way of explanation of the reduction percentages deemed necessary by Urgenda, the foundation argues that by not or no longer focusing on a reduction of 25-40% in 2020, but only on a reduction of 40% by 2030 and of 80-95% by 2050, the State will have higher emission levels than if it were to adhere to the intermediate objective of a 25-40% reduction in 2020. In this context, Urgenda refers to the graphs below (submitted during the plea): {TRANSLATION Reduction paths Y axis: annual emissions X axis: Fixed annual reduction – percentage Fixed annual reduction – amount Delayed reduction} {TRANSLATION Reduction paths up to -80% in 2030 X axis: Historical Path EU 2010 to 2030 Path EU 2030 to 2050 Linear reduction Fixed annual reduction (3.6%)} {TRANSLATION Reduction paths up to -95% in 2035 X axis: Historical Path EU 2010 to 2030 Path EU 2030 to 2050 Path EU 2030 to 2050 Linear reduction Fixed annual reduction (6.9%)} Urgenda argues that the first graph – whose information is detailed further in the second and third graphs – shows that a delayed reduction path results in higher emissions than does a more evenly distributed reduction effort over the entire period up to the year 2050 or with a linear approach. Urgenda claims that graph also shows that a delayed reduction (less reduction until 2030 and more thereafter) will lead to higher total emissions and thereby increases the chances of exceeding the remaining “budget”. Urgenda also states that it is more cost-effective to intervene now, an argument that is based on AR5/2013 which states that scenarios in which the rigorous reduction is postponed to the 2030-2050 period lead to a greater dependence on CO2 reducing technologies. According to the same report, these technologies are not yet developed enough to contribute substantially to the reduction (see 2.19). In this context, Urgenda finally states that it is still possible for the EU to realise the 30% reduction target provided the condition would arise.

4.33. The State argues that the Netherlands will reach a total reduction of 17% in 2020, as a derivative of the EU’s 20% reduction target. The Netherlands has committed to a 40% reduction for the year 2030 for the EU as a whole, while the State presumes a reduction percentage of 80-95% for the entire EU for the year 2050. The court has established that it is not clear yet which reduction percentages will apply to the Netherlands as a derivative of the European percentages. The State deems the milestones stated here sufficient for ensuring the 2 °C target.

4.34. The final target for 2050 and the required intermediate target for 2030 is not disputed between the Parties. The State concurs with Urgenda’s argument that CO2 emissions will have to have been reduced by 80-95% in 2050, compared to 1990. Their dispute concentrates on the question whether the State is falling short – as argued by Urgenda – in its duty of care by pursuing a reduction target for 2020 that is lower than 25-40%, compared to 1990, which is the standard accepted in climate science and the international climate policy. First, the State argues that it cannot be forced at law towards Urgenda to adhere to the 25-40% target. Second, the State contests Urgenda’s argument that it is failing to meets its duty of care by pursuing the proposed lower target of 25-40% for 2020. In the following section, it is examined whether and if so, to what extent, the State is subject to an obligation towards Urgenda to pursue a reduction target higher than the current one for the Netherlands. D. Legal obligation of the State? Introduction

4.35. As mentioned briefly above, Urgenda accuses the State of several things, such as the State acting unlawfully by, contrary to its constitutional obligation (Article 21 of the Dutch Constitution), mitigating insufficiently as defined further in international agreements and in line with current scientific knowledge. In doing so, the State is damaging the interests it pursues, namely: to prevent the Netherlands from causing (more than proportionate) damage, from its territory, to current and future generations in the Netherlands and abroad. Furthermore, Urgenda argues that under Articles 2 and 8 of the ECHR, the State has the positive obligation to take protective measures. Urgenda also claims that the State is acting unlawfully because, as a consequence of insufficient mitigation, it (more than proportionately) endangers the living climate (and thereby also the health) of man and the environment, thereby breaching its duty of care. Urgenda asserts that in doing so the State is acting unlawfully towards Urgenda in the sense of Book 6, Section 162 of the Dutch Civil Code, whether or not in combination with Book 5, Section 37 of the Dutch Civil Code. The State contests that a duty of care arises from these sections for a further limitation of emissions than currently realised by it. The court finds as follows. Contravention of a legal obligation

Article 21 of the Constitution and international conventions

4.36. Article 21 of the Dutch Constitution imposes a duty of care on the State relating to the liveability of the country and the protection and improvement of the living environment. For the densely populated and low-lying Netherlands, this duty of care concerns important issues, such as the water