Note: The awards below are based on who would win if the vote was held today. Other stars may emerge in the second-half of the season, while injuries could strike players currently in form.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes is the runaway favorite, as he should be: his numbers are insane. Nobody is supposed to keep pace with peak-Peyton Manning or apex-Tom Brady in terms of production, let alone in their first full year as a starter – and yet Mahomes has. Arguments that he’s aided by an excellent coaching staff and a treasure trove of weapons are valid, but that won’t stop him from winning the award.

There’s a case to be made for Drew Brees, part lifetime achievement award, part brilliant quarterback who’s mastered all his powers. It’s crazy that Brees – one of the 12 greatest quarterbacks ever – has yet to win an MVP but that’s what happens when you play in the era of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

Looking to who will win MVP at the end of the season, Brady still has a shout. If the Patriots clinch the No1 seed in the AFC, Brady’s name will be up there again. He’s been every bit as good as he was last year on the way to winning the award. Voter fatigue probably costs him a real shot.

I understand the arguments for Todd Gurley and Jared Goff. They’re the top skill players on a great team. Goff makes more sense, to me, than Gurley, despite the Rams truly being a run-first offense – the running position is just more interchangeable. It also feels like the majority of any Rams credit will be siphoned into McVay’s Coach of the Year candidacy.

Oh, and going forward, don’t sleep on Cam Newton, who is having a better season through eight weeks than he did at the mid-point of his 2015 MVP run.

Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams

It’s not much of a race. It’s Donald v Mack. If you want to add JJ Watt in, feel free to. Watt has returned to full health and been almost as dominant as before; he probably has a better case for Comeback Player of the Year though.

This seemed like Khalil Mack’s award to lose a couple of weeks into the season. He was a true one-man wrecking crew, taking over primetime games and making more how-did-he-do-that plays than anyone this side of Lawrence Taylor. But Mack’s production has dipped, and he’s been battling lingering injuries. He’s already missed two games, giving everyone else in the race an upper hand.

Donald, it is then. The Rams defensive anchor leads the NFL in defensive pressures, per Football Outsiders. Donald is already up to 30.5, more than three pressures better than second place. Donald also leads the league in sacks. All this while being double-teamed on 70% of his snaps. You couldn’t dominate like that in a video game if you toggled all the settings to rookie. By comparison, Mack has 13 pressures in six games.

Offensive Player of the Year: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

Gurley has certainly earned the award and the acclaim that has come his way. The Rams play in a run-first system but just because the team’s coach is considered a new-age, offensive savant, doesn’t mean that a) his team is a pass-first outfit or b) that his players don’t have to execute.

The other top candidates for this awards are Adam Thielen and Tyreek Hill. Thielen is doing things we’ve never seen before, not from Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, or even Jerry Rice. Eight times Thielen has finished with more than 100 receiving yards in a game this season, breaking Johnson’s record of seven. Not bad for someone who went undrafted out of Minnesota State. He leads all receivers in DYAR, a measure of a player’s total value. There are still eight games to go.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: too close to call

We have a straight shootout between Saquon Barkley and Calvin Ridley. We’re talking production and impact v visceral greatness. Barkley has more “wow” moments. Ridley has made the greater impact – he’s first in receiver DVOA, the measure of a receivers down-to-down efficiency. Barkley, for what it’s worth, is 15th in rushing DVOA and 10th among running backs in receiving.

Barkley is a more famous name and he plays in New York but on merit, Ridley probably deserves it, at least so far: he’s sixth among all receivers in per play value. Having said that, no one is going to lose any sleep if Barkley takes this. He’s as fun to watch as any back who’s come into the league in a long, long time.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derwin James, Los Angeles Chargers

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Derwin James is a threat to quarterbacks everywhere. Photograph: Naomi Baker/Getty Images

The league might as well ship this award out to Derwin James now. Few defenders across the league have had the kind of impact James has for the Chargers in his rookie season.

James is a bundle of energy, a Tasmanian Devil let loose to roam a football field. He plays at all levels of the defense. On any one series, you will see him lined up on the line of scrimmage, as a linebacker, in the slot, or as a deep safety. He’s disrupting the dropbacks of quarterbacks at a pace similar to the league’s upper-echelon edge-rushers. He is sacking quarterbacks at a rate no safety ever has before. The numbers are so jarring they’re almost laughable.

The Colts’ Darius Leonard and Denzel Ward have both been excellent. They’re equally deserving of recognition. But no one, veteran or rookie, is playing the game quite like James right now.

Coach of the Year: Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

I can’t remember a COTY pick ever being this obvious, given that Bill Belichick doesn’t appear to factor into the equation. There will be a chorus of voices asking for Andy Reid. In a normal year, Reid would and should win it.

But this isn’t a normal year. McVay’s Rams are the most complete team in football – by a decent margin. His offensive sorcery is palpable on a play-to-play basis. Big time hires (Wade Phillips) and transactions (Ndamukong Suh, Brandin Cooks) are working out.

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Comeback Player of the Year: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Luck edges the voting over JJ Watt. He has rebounded from a troubling shoulder injury to lead all non-Mahomes quarterbacks in touchdowns, with 23 through eight games thus far. More impressively, Luck has evolved his game post-injury. He’s getting rid of the ball quicker than at any point in his career: his average time to throw is among the quickest in the league.

There are just enough glimpses of the old, swashbuckling Luck to bring a smile to your face. He will still extend a play and launch a strike downfield with defenders dripping off his body. It was a circuitous route, but Luck is now back to his best.

Super Bowl pick

My preseason pick was Vikings-Patriots. I didn’t want to stick to the chalk prediction and take Rams-Patriots because the obvious preseason matchup rarely comes to fruition. But I am nothing if not a coward. So, I’m flipping my pick: Patriots-Rams it is.



