Top story: Virus has ‘attack rate’ of up to 80%

Hello, Warren Murray here with an open sandwich of news for your morning table.

The novel coronavirus epidemic could spread to two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist. The number of confirmed cases in the UK has doubled from four to eight – two healthcare workers are among them – as the government announced new powers to detain people suspected of having the virus.

Prof Gabriel Leung, the Hong Kong expert, said that if the drastic containment measures adopted by China proved successful, other countries should consider adopting them – but questions remained to be answered. “Have these massive public health interventions, social distancing, and mobility restrictions worked in China?” said Leung, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva. “If so, how can we roll them out, or is it not possible?” Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to around 2.5 other people. That gave a potential “attack rate” of 60 to 80%. “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said.

The death toll in China has exceeded 1,000 – more updates at our live blog.

50 terror prisoners face longer jail stay – Emergency legislation will be introduced today to prevent about 50 prisoners convicted of terror offences being automatically freed halfway through their sentences. The move follows the London Bridge knife attacks by Usman Khan in November 2019 and the Streatham stabbings by Sudesh Amman this month. Both men were convicted terrorists released mid-term from prison on licence. Instead of being freed automatically halfway through their sentence, inmates will have to spend at least two-thirds of their term behind bars before being referred to the Parole Board, which will consider their release. Those receiving sentences as offenders of particular concern (SOPCs) will also be affected.

All aboard – The PM is expected to give the go-ahead today for the HS2 rail project. Ministers are promising an additional £5bn for buses and cycle routes to head off critics who fear the £100bn high-speed train line will suck cash from other priorities. Johnson’s decision has been keenly anticipated though he appeared to let slip his intentions to a 10-year-old schoolboy who interviewed him last month, telling him: “In a hole the size of HS2, the only thing to do is keep digging.” Labour’s shadow transport secretary, Andy McDonald, said: “HS2 has been appallingly mismanaged by the Conservative party, which has failed to deliver a single major infrastructure project on time or within budget. If HS2 is going to get back on track, the project has to be integrated with Crossrail for the North, it needs to be managed as part of an advanced rail network, and it must eventually extend into Scotland so that we remove the need for domestic flights.”

University course rankings feared – Academics are sounding the alarm over government plans to label university courses as failing if their graduates earn lower salaries. Senior academics close to Westminster say the Conservatives are pressing on with their manifesto plan to use Ofsted-style rankings in universities. Higher education experts warn that in the arts and humanities starting salaries are typically much lower than in disciplines such as medicine or law; and universities outside London will lose out because of graduates who stay on and work locally rather than going to the capital for a higher salary. Universities fear the government might refuse to provide student loans for “low-quality” courses, threaten universities with removal from the Office for Students’ register if they do not improve, or shut down courses.

Maldives bikini arrest – The speaker of the Maldives parliament has apologised to a British tourist after she was bundled off the street by police for wearing a bikini. Police said the woman, who was walking on a main road on the island of Maafushi, was “inappropriately” dressed and allegedly unruly and drunk when she was detained after refusing to comply with requests to cover up. The Maldives once confined tourists to resort islets separate from the local Muslim population but in recent years has allowed foreigners to stay on inhabited islands. The Maldives police service commissioner, Mohamed Hameed, wrote after footage was shared online that the incident “seems to be badly handled … I apologise to the tourist and the public for this”.

Bum note – An irreplaceable piano that was treasured by the Canadian virtuoso Angela Hewitt has been broken beyond repair when it was dropped by specialist instrument movers after a recording session in Berlin. Hewitt said her F278 Fazioli – the only one in the world fitted with four pedals, and worth at least £150,000 – was “kaputt … I hope my piano will be happy in piano heaven.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The classical pianist Angela Hewitt. Photograph: Keith Saunders

The instrument was inspected by its Italian maker, Paolo Fazioli, who declared it “unsalvageable”. The 590kg instrument was dropped so heavily that its lid split in two. Terence Lewis, co-owner of London’s Jaques Samuel Pianos, said: “Paolo [Fazioli] says he will never fit four pedals ever again to it [a F278] because it was such a pain in the arse.”

Today in Focus podcast: Life on Lesbos

Harriet Grant travelled to the Greek island to report on the crisis playing out in its refugee camps. Plus: Lisa O’Carroll on Sinn Féin’s election success. (We have a separate read on the UN calling for the evacuation of the Moria camp on Lesbos amid desperately overcrowded an unsanitary conditions.)

Lunchtime read: Australia’s summer of dread

Australia’s catastrophic bushfire season has taken 33 lives, destroyed thousands of homes and devastated the country’s unique wildlife. Guardian Australia surveys the damage.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Shelley Tratham-Webb and daughter Pearl in the bus where they had to live after evacuating their home in the face of bushfires in Nethercote, New South Wales. Photograph: Andrew Quilty/The Guardian

Sport

Chris Silverwood has conceded for the first time he may look at managing Jofra Archer differently in Test cricket. Cricket may finally have solved its no-ball problem after confirmation the upcoming women’s Twenty20 World Cup will be the first tournament to feature front-foot technology. An emotional David Warner completed a stunning return to the international stage by claiming Cricket Australia’s top award, finishing a single vote ahead of Steve Smith. Vanessa Bryant has said in an Instagram post that she was both grieving and angry over the loss of her husband, NBA star Kobe Bryant, and 13-year-old daughter Gianna in a helicopter crash last month.

Former clubs and teammates of Jackie McNamara have sent their best wishes after the former Scotland international fell seriously ill. England braved freezing and snowy Edinburgh conditions to maintain their push for a second successive Women’s Six Nations grand slam by beating Scotland 53-0. Toto Wolff has said his priority is to ensure Lewis Hamilton signs a new contract with Mercedes. And a 75-year-old man is training with an Egyptian third division club in a bid to become the world’s oldest professional footballer.

Business

Our long read today is the little-reported battle for hegemony in the multbillion-pound global tampon market where the clear market leader, Tampax, owned by Procter & Gamble, is under threat from upstart disruptors such as Lola, Cora and Callaly. On the markets, stocks are up again in Asia overnight despite an underwhelming return to work in China where coronavirus is still keeping millions locked in their homes. The FTSE 100 is on track to rise 0.6% at the opening today. The pound is buying $1.292 and €1.183.

The papers

The Guardian’s print edition splashes this morning with “Johnson pledges £5bn overhaul of bus services to fend off HS2 revolt” (remember the PM’s last brilliant bus plan?). The Oscars sweep by Bong Joon-hoo’s film Parasite gets the Guardian’s picture slot.

Others are on the buses too: “Billions to be spend on buses and bus routes” announces the i. “4,000 new buses to get Britain moving”, enthuses the Express – we all know how it is, you wait for ages and then thousands come along at once. The Mirror reports on flooding in the north from Storm Ciara and says people have been “Sold down the river” by unmet Tory promises.

The Mail is not being at all alarmist about coronavirus by demanding to know in caps: “HOW MANY MORE ARE INFECTED?” The Telegraph leads with new powers whereby “Police can force virus carriers into quarantine”. The Times has “Bid to trace patients as coronavirus infects GPs”. The Sun speculates that Autumn Phillips “could go to Canada like Meghan” after a mooted split with her husband, Peter Phillips, grandson of her majesty: “Queen hit by royal split” is the headline. Finally, it’s Brex(it) and the City in the FT: “Javid pushes for decades-long deal granting City access to EU market”.

Sign up

The Guardian Morning Briefing is delivered to thousands of inboxes bright and early every weekday. If you are not already receiving it by email, you can sign up here.

For more news: www.theguardian.com