- A better part of a decade. This is the hottest I've ever started. Three back-to-back-to-back winning weeks. I feel these are the best picks I've had this year. And so without further ado, our Blazing Five.

All right, I'll take the Raiders minus-2.5 to win by more than a field goal. Listen, they're not an awful 0-3 team. They've led every game going into the fourth quarter. Derek Carr's completing over 75% of his throws.

This is a very competent offense and they've got good backs. They have not sealed up games. And going out to Miami in that oppressive heat in September and losing to a good Dolphin team is nothing to be embarrassed about.

Listen, I like Baker Mayfield, OK? It's been fun. But the number one overall pick in their first career start dating back 15 years to 2003 are 0-10. Starting quarterbacks first start number one picks are 0-10 in their first starts. Oakland is at home. They're the better team. They're not an awful 0-3. I'll take the Raiders to win 28-20.

I can't believe Indianapolis isn't favored by more than one point. It's Colts minus-one. Listen, Chris Ballard, the GM of the Colts, told me in the offseason-- he goes, you know, I think our defensive front's a little better than people think. They're tied for fourth most sacks in the NFL.

They don't have a superstar, but the Colts are playing very, very sound, fundamental football up front. Again, it's not perfect. They don't have an Aaron Donald. They don't have a Von Miller. But they've been surprisingly good and the Texans have given up a league-high 33 quarterback hits this season. That may be the worst offensive line in the NFL.

And the pass defense this year for Houston, what's going on? I got a team that I think feels good about themselves-- the Colts at home only having to give up a point. I'm going to take Indianapolis to win this thing comfortably, 33-26.

This is going to be ugly. I mean, turn away, don't watch. Bad offenses, terrible offensive lines, rebuilding football teams. But Arizona's getting a field goal. And at home, they've always been sneaky good. Chandler Jones over the last three years-- you know he actually leads the NFL in sacks?

He does. Khalil Mack's behind him, Von Miller is behind him. And Seattle struggles to block elite pass rushers. Anytime you have two ugly offenses who are really rebuilding and I'm going to get a field goal with a home team, I'm going to take it. This is going to be really ugly. I'm going to take Arizona, kind of an upset win, 24-23. Josh Rosen wins.

Giants historically start slow and end strong. I'm getting 3.5 with the New York Giants. Like it? I love it. Listen, New Orleans is a different team on the road. This is back-to-back roadies. Over the last seven, eight years, even with Drew Brees, they've generally been poor-- forget points, just straight up-- in back-to-back road games, the second game.

And their defense is last or next to last in points per game allowed, yards per game, and takeaways. This is not a defense playing well. And here's what I know about the Giants-- Saquon Barkley is the first Giant with 100-plus scrimmage yards in each of his first three career games. He's a real weapon.

Now I wouldn't have taken him with my number one pick. I would've taken Sam Darnold. But the Giants are going to win this game and the Giants are getting 3.5 at home. I love-- love-- this pick. 28-27, New York Giants.

Been saying it, Joy, since the preseason. Baltimore is the best team in the NFL that nobody's paying attention to. But they're not flashy. They're not the Rams. They're not the Chiefs. They're not the Steelers. They don't have Brady. They're really good.

But they drafted two tight ends and they went an acquired three new wide receivers. And my thing was, just wait until Thanksgiving. This is going to be a Super Bowl-level team. But they're not flashy. They're kind of rebuilding their offense in parts. But defensively, they're top five in points, yards, passing yards, yards allowed per play. That's a big Vegas stat.

Baltimore's always good defensively. They're incredibly sound there again this year. By the way, though, sneaky good offensively. Here's an amazing number-- Ravens have scored a touchdown on all 12 of their zone drives-- 12 for 12. They're better offensively than you think.

Sunday Night Football-- Baltimore goes into Pittsburgh and beats the Steelers, 27-23. Those are my Blazing Five picks. By the way, I've got my Baker, Baker Moneymaker. OK last week I took Cleveland and Baker paid off because I didn't know he would play. My bet of the week is the Raiders. I think people.

- So you're rooting against Baker?

- You know what it is? You've got two things converging here-- the narrative that Gruden is a dinosaur and doesn't know what he's doing. Offensively, they're fine. They're actually fun to watch offensively. So you've got that narrative going and then you have the narrative that Baker Mayfield is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Gruden can actually coach a little bit and Baker's a kid and the number's wrong. And so there you go.