Quote TL;DR VERSION - READ BELOW TO SEE HOW I GOT THESE NUMBERS AND SOME IMPORTANT THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING AT THEM





UPDATED 6/15/2012



These numbers represent the average number of simultaneous concurrent logins over the past two weeks. This isn't the number of subscribers, or number of characters, it's an estimate of how many people are actually logged in at once. Transfer status is noted also (from xxx means the server is a destination server for server xxx, to xxx means that the server is an origin server that is being directed to the xxx server.)



Top 20 US Servers The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2257.5 Destination for: Cho Mai, Firkrann Crystal, Hedarr Soongh, Kinrath Spider, Rwookrrorro, The Deadweight, Thendys Noori

Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1676.25 Destination for: Axial Park, Eidolon Security, Fort Garnik, Hanharr, Keetael, Keller's Void, Khoonda Militia, Ki-Ta Kren, Nathema, Sedyn Kyne, Telos Restoration Project, The Defenestrator

Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 1030 Destination for: Darth Xedrix, Fa'athra, Lord Praven, Mask of Nihilus, Master Gnost-Dural, Master Zhar Lestin, Perlemian Trade Route

The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 800 Destination for: Empress Teta, Gauntlet of Kressh, Kaiburr Crystal, Krath, Namadii Corridor, Soresu, Wall of Light, Zaalbar

The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 660 Destination for: Kath Hound, Lord Adraas, Rubat Crystal, Sanctum of the Exalted, Shien

Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 650 Destination for: Assassins of Sion, Juyo, Kaas City, Kathol Rift, Krayiss Obelisk, Master Dorak, The Constant, The Corsair, The Courageous, Whitebeam Run, Zez-Kai Ell

Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 520 Destination for: Ajunta Pall, Ven Zallow

Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 460 To The Ebon Hawk

The Bastion (PvP US West) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Black Vulkars, Daragon Trail, Dark Reaper, Infinite Empire, Mandalore the Indomitable, Nadd's Sarcophagus, Rakata Mind Prison, Shadowtown, The Crucible Pits, The Maw, Destination for: The Swiftsure, Warriors of the Shadow, Wound in the Force

Ajunta Pall (RP PvP US West) Population ≈ 370 To Jung Ma

The Swiftsure (PvP US West) Population ≈ 350 To The Bastion

Prophecy of the Five (PvP US East) Population ≈ 330 Destination for: Bondar Crystal, Davik's Estate, Death Wind Corridor, Gardens of Talla, Infinity Gate, Iron Citadel, Naddist Rebels, Saber of Exar Kun, Sword of Ajunta Pall, Terentatek, The Twin Spears, Veela, Anchorhead, Helm of Graush, Port Nowhere, Vulkar Highway

The Shadowlands (PvE US East) Population ≈ 310 Destination for: Dreshdae Cantina, Elysium, Giradda the Hutt, Grand Master Zym, Krayt Dragon, Sith Meditation Sphere, The Razor

Begeren Colony (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 300 Destination for: Lord Ieldis, Vrook Lamar

Sanctum of the Exalted (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 270 To The Ebon Hawk

Krayt Dragon (PvE US East) Population ≈ 260 To The Shadowlands

Lord Ieldis (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 250 To Begeren Colony

Mind Trick (PvE US East) Population ≈ 250 Likely Canderous Ordo, Jedi Covenant, or The Shadowlands

Public Test (PvE US East) Population ≈ 250 Likely Canderous Ordo, Jedi Covenant, or The Shadowlands

Anchorhead (PvP US East) Population ≈ 247.5 To Prophecy of the Five

Top 20 Worldwide Servers The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2257.5 Destination for: Cho Mai, Firkrann Crystal, Hedarr Soongh, Kinrath Spider, Rwookrrorro, The Deadweight, Thendys Noori

Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1676.25 Destination for: Axial Park, Eidolon Security, Fort Garnik, Hanharr, Keetael, Keller's Void, Khoonda Militia, Ki-Ta Kren, Nathema, Sedyn Kyne, Telos Restoration Project, The Defenestrator

Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 1030 Destination for: Darth Xedrix, Fa'athra, Lord Praven, Mask of Nihilus, Master Gnost-Dural, Master Zhar Lestin, Perlemian Trade Route

The Jedi Tower (PvE EUR German) Population ≈ 950 Destination for: Dreypa's Oubliette, Handmaidens of Atris, Murakami Orchid, Opila Crystal, Stereb Cities, The Cinzia

Tomb of Freedon Nadd (PvP EUR English) Population ≈ 920 Destination for: Ahto City, Chuundar, Hex Droid, Kai-kan, Niman,Scepter of Ragnos, Senator Contispex, Starstorm One, Tassaa Bareesh, The Exile's Crystal, The Kumumgah, The Ravager, The Shadow Runner, Tott Doneeta, Trayus Academy, Ula Vii, Uthar Wynn, Basilisk Droid, Bloodworthy, Legions of Lettow

The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 800 Destination for: Empress Teta, Gauntlet of Kressh, Kaiburr Crystal, Krath, Namadii Corridor, Soresu, Wall of Light, Zaalbar

The Red Eclipse (PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 780 Destination for: Dxun Battle Circle, Eye of Ashlanae, Flames of the Crucible, Goluud Corridor, Kellian Jarro, Ludo Kressh, Rogue Moon, Sluis Shipyards, The Arkanian Legacy

Gav Daragon (RP PvE APAC) Population ≈ 680 Unknown

Dalborra (PvE APAC) Population ≈ 660 Unknown

The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 660 Destination for: Kath Hound, Lord Adraas, Rubat Crystal, Sanctum of the Exalted, Shien

Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 650 Destination for: Assassins of Sion, Juyo, Kaas City, Kathol Rift, Krayiss Obelisk, Master Dorak, The Constant, The Corsair, The Courageous, Whitebeam Run, Zez-Kai Ell

Master Dar'Nala (PvP APAC) Population ≈ 580 Unknown

Dune Bantha (PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 560 Likely The Red Eclipse

Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 520 Destination for: Ajunta Pall, Ven Zallow

Huntmaster (RP PvP EUR French) Population ≈ 480 Unknown

Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 460 To The Ebon Hawk

Vanjervalis Chain (RP PvE EUR German) Population ≈ 440 Destination for: Cassus Fett, Zayne Carrick

Mantle of the Force (PvE EUR French) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Hssiss, Kissai Caste, Phateem Halls of Knowledge, Vodo-Siosk Baas,

The Bastion (PvP US West) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Black Vulkars, Daragon Trail, Dark Reaper, Infinite Empire, Mandalore the Indomitable, Nadd's Sarcophagus, Rakata Mind Prison, Shadowtown, The Crucible Pits, The Maw, Destination for: The Swiftsure, Warriors of the Shadow, Wound in the Force

The Progenitor (RP PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Shaltin Tunnels, Trask Ulgo



HOW I GOT THOSE NUMBERS, WHY I DID THIS, THINGS TO CONSIDER, OTHER STATS:



Originally, this exercise was to try and predict the path of server transfer. Now, that process is mostly done and I'm monitoring the population out of simple observational curiousity.



As you may already know,



1 = Light

2 = Standard

3 = Heavy

4 = Very Heavy

5 = Full



It then checks server status on all the servers every hour and records that number. It calculates the average of all of those hourly recordings for the last 14 days and reports than number as "ø". (



This guy went and did a *lot* of work. Basically, he wrote a program to tell him when a server changed status, and then he went and /whoed the population of the server to see what actual population number is associated with what status.



http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.co...er-status.html



He estimates, with plenty of variability in the data, that:



Light is up to about 500

Standard is up to about 1,500

Heavy is up to about 2,250-2,500(?) (Let's call this 2375 for now...)

Very Heavy is up to about 3,000

Full is greater than about 3,000



If you look at his data, you can see that sometimes a heavy server has 2000 people on it and sometimes it has 2500 people on it. Same kind of range (or more) for the other server statuses. Part of this is because people log on and log off while he's /who-ing the population, and part of this is because different servers might have different population levels and/or Bioware may alter those population levels. (So standard might be 1,500 on one server and 1,000 on a different server, or 1,500 today and 1,000 a month ago - we don't know.)



I think you can then use the two to estimate server population.



If ø is greater than 0, add the % ø is greater than 0 x 250 (where 250 is the average of 0 and the top end of the "light" status.)



So for Kaiburr Crystal, where the ø is 0.97, you'd have (0.97 x 250) and come up with a theoretical average population of 243.



The low phi servers are the ones that this analysis is most uncertain for, I think. I'm using 250 as my value for light. That could be, in all reality, 4 lost people or 499 people who are logged in all the time. So if my estimate is 250, the likely range is from 0.10x to 2x that. I can't detect a population less than a phi of 1, so if a server is really deserted, I can't tell. This is an uncertainty in the analysis that may lead to an overestimation or underestimation in the number of concurrent logins.



If ø is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % ø is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).



So for my server, The Ebon Hawk, where the ø is 1.41, you'd add 250 plus (0.41 x 1000) and come up with a theoretical average number of concurrent logins of 660.



If ø is greater than 2, then add 250 + 1000 + the % ø is greater than 2 x 1937.5 (where 1937.5 is the average of the top end of standard = 1500, and the average top end of heavy 2375).



So for The Fatman, where the ø is 2.52, you'd add 250 + 1000 + plus (0.52 x 1937.5) and come up with a theoretical average number of concurrent logins of 2258.



Math is here - you're welcome to look at it yourself and see if you can find a better way to analyze this data. You'll also see tabs for previous analyses as well as summary tables for total and average populations by server type and region and a tab with transfer info.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...WmdZUFE#gid=15



That means if you take the numbers from Torstatus representing the average population over the last two weeks for the top 20 US and worldwide servers you end up with the list above.



The catch here is realizing that this estimate is based on a 14 day average status, so that's dead slack times and peak times. The theoretical average population UNDERESTIMATES the peak population and OVERESTIMATES the off-peak population.



Keep in mind this is the average number of people logged in - it's probable that not every player is logged in all the time. If you think that 50% of the population is logged in all the time, double this number for the number of subscribers. If you think that 10% of the population is logged in all the time, then multiply this number by 10x for the number of subscribers. If you think that 5% of the population is likely to be concurrently logged in, then you end up with about 1.3 million subscribers, more or less.



For instance, if I say that there are 600 people, on average, logged into server X, in real life that might mean:



400 Stay at home parents login at noon and logout at 4.

600 School kids login at 4 and logout at 8.

800 Working people login at 8 and logout at 12 midnight.

800 College students login at 12 midnight and logout at 4.

600 Insomniacs login at 4 and logout at 8.

400 3rd shift workers login at 8 and logout at 12 noon.



So that's 600 AVERAGE LOGINS but it's 3,600 SUBSCRIBERS .



So here are some summary statistics:

Total estimated worldwide average number of simultaneous concurrent logins of all servers (24 hr average over the last 2 weeks as of 6/15/2012).

65,061



This is the 3rd time since I've been tracking numbers that there has been an increase, and this is the largest increase thus far (Wednesday was 62,923).



SERVERS BY AREA

APAC 3

EUR English 45

EUR French 16

EUR German 30

US East 82

US West 42

Total 218







SERVERS BY TYPE

PvE 112

PvP 82

RP PvE 18

RP PvP 6

Total 218



This is a full reporting of all servers.



LOGINS BY AREA

APAC 1,920

EUR English 12,990

EUR French 4,545

EUR German 8,338

US East 25,219

US West 12,050

Total 65,061



LOGINS BY TYPE

PvE 33,191

PvP 23,678

RP PvE 6,080

RP PvP 2,113

Total 65,061



Here's another way to look at the logins, by transfer status. Origin means that BW has officially started outbound transfers from this server. Destination meand that BW has officially started inbound transfers to this server. Origin Likely means that BW has NOT made transfers available to this server, but I think that they are likely to (note that this is my personal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official). Unknown means that BW is not likely to have transfers either to or from this server in what I think is the forseeable future (APAC servers and the EUR RP-PvP servers, again, note that this is my peronsal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official).



LOGINS BY SERVER TRANSFER STATUS

Destination 13,764

Origin 37,803

Origin Likely 10,600

Unknown 2,895

Total 65,061



These are the average number of logins per server.



AVG LOGINS BY AREA

APAC 640

EUR English 289

EUR French 284

EUR German 278

US East 308

US West 287

Grand Avg 298



AVG LOGINS BY TYPE

PvE 296

PvP 289

RP PvE 338

RP PvP 352

Grand Avg 298



AVG LOGINS BY Transfer Status

Destination 688

Origin 250

Origin Likely 259

Unknown 483

Grand Avg 298





Check it out - our destination servers are *double* the size of the average server! Pretty neat.





The only real way to get at these demographics is for BW to release their data, but I don't know if they are willing or able to do so. The next best way is go in and /who the server a bunch, but I don't have time for that. This analysis is a shortcut to get at that data without nearly as much work. I hope I've been clear where I'm making assumptions and what those assumptions are. If you've got a better analysis, or a way to refine some of these assumptions, I'd love to know about it.



Paige UPDATED 6/15/2012These numbers represent the average number of simultaneous concurrent logins over the past two weeks. This isn't the number of subscribers, or number of characters, it's an estimate of how many people are actually logged in at once. Transfer status is noted also (from xxx means the server is a destination server for server xxx, to xxx means that the server is an origin server that is being directed to the xxx server.)Top 20 US ServersTop 20 Worldwide ServersOriginally, this exercise was to try and predict the path of server transfer. Now, that process is mostly done and I'm monitoring the population out of simple observational curiousity.As you may already know, www.torstatus.net codes server status as1 = Light2 = Standard3 = Heavy4 = Very Heavy5 = FullIt then checks server status on all the servers every hour and records that number. It calculates the average of all of those hourly recordings for the last 14 days and reports than number as "ø". ( http://www.torstatus.net/about This guy went and did a *lot* of work. Basically, he wrote a program to tell him when a server changed status, and then he went and /whoed the population of the server to see what actual population number is associated with what status.He estimates, with plenty of variability in the data, that:Light is up to about 500Standard is up to about 1,500Heavy is up to about 2,250-2,500(?) (Let's call this 2375 for now...)Very Heavy is up to about 3,000Full is greater than about 3,000If you look at his data, you can see that sometimes a heavy server has 2000 people on it and sometimes it has 2500 people on it. Same kind of range (or more) for the other server statuses. Part of this is because people log on and log off while he's /who-ing the population, and part of this is because different servers might have different population levels and/or Bioware may alter those population levels. (So standard might be 1,500 on one server and 1,000 on a different server, or 1,500 today and 1,000 a month ago - we don't know.)I think you can then use the two to estimate server population.If ø is greater than 0, add the % ø is greater than 0 x 250 (where 250 is the average of 0 and the top end of the "light" status.)The low phi servers are the ones that this analysis is most uncertain for, I think. I'm using 250 as my value for light. That could be, in all reality, 4 lost people or 499 people who are logged in all the time. So if my estimate is 250, the likely range is from 0.10x to 2x that. I can't detect a population less than a phi of 1, so if a server is really deserted, I can't tell. This is an uncertainty in the analysis that may lead to an overestimation or underestimation in the number of concurrent logins.If ø is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % ø is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).If ø is greater than 2, then add 250 + 1000 + the % ø is greater than 2 x 1937.5 (where 1937.5 is the average of the top end of standard = 1500, and the average top end of heavy 2375).Math is here - you're welcome to look at it yourself and see if you can find a better way to analyze this data. You'll also see tabs for previous analyses as well as summary tables for total and average populations by server type and region and a tab with transfer info.That means if you take the numbers from Torstatus representing the average population over the last two weeks for the top 20 US and worldwide servers you end up with the list above.The catch here is realizing that this estimate is based on a 14 day average status, so that's dead slack times and peak times. The theoretical average population UNDERESTIMATES the peak population and OVERESTIMATES the off-peak population.Keep in mind this is the average number of people logged in - it's probable that not every player is logged in all the time. If you think that 50% of the population is logged in all the time, double this number for the number of subscribers. If you think that 10% of the population is logged in all the time, then multiply this number by 10x for the number of subscribers. If you think that 5% of the population is likely to be concurrently logged in, then you end up with about 1.3 million subscribers, more or less.For instance, if I say that there are 600 people, on average, logged into server X, in real life that might mean:400 Stay at home parents login at noon and logout at 4.600 School kids login at 4 and logout at 8.800 Working people login at 8 and logout at 12 midnight.800 College students login at 12 midnight and logout at 4.600 Insomniacs login at 4 and logout at 8.400 3rd shift workers login at 8 and logout at 12 noon.So that'sbut it'sSo here are some summary statistics:Total estimated worldwide average number of simultaneous concurrent logins of all servers (24 hr average over the last 2 weeks as of 6/15/2012).65,061This is the 3rd time since I've been tracking numbers that there has been an increase, and this is the largest increase thus far (Wednesday was 62,923).SERVERS BY AREAAPAC 3EUR English 45EUR French 16EUR German 30US East 82US West 42Total 218SERVERS BY TYPEPvE 112PvP 82RP PvE 18RP PvP 6Total 218This is a full reporting of all servers.LOGINS BY AREAAPAC 1,920EUR English 12,990EUR French 4,545EUR German 8,338US East 25,219US West 12,050Total 65,061LOGINS BY TYPEPvE 33,191PvP 23,678RP PvE 6,080RP PvP 2,113Total 65,061Here's another way to look at the logins, by transfer status. Origin means that BW has officially started outbound transfers from this server. Destination meand that BW has officially started inbound transfers to this server. Origin Likely means that BW has NOT made transfers available to this server, but I think that they are likely to (note that this is my personal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official). Unknown means that BW is not likely to have transfers either to or from this server in what I think is the forseeable future (APAC servers and the EUR RP-PvP servers, again, note that this is my peronsal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official).LOGINS BY SERVER TRANSFER STATUSDestination 13,764Origin 37,803Origin Likely 10,600Unknown 2,895Total 65,061These are the average number of logins per server.AVG LOGINS BY AREAAPAC 640EUR English 289EUR French 284EUR German 278US East 308US West 287Grand Avg 298AVG LOGINS BY TYPEPvE 296PvP 289RP PvE 338RP PvP 352Grand Avg 298AVG LOGINS BY Transfer StatusOrigin 250Origin Likely 259Unknown 483Grand Avg 298Check it out - our destination servers are *double* the size of the average server! Pretty neat.The only real way to get at these demographics is for BW to release their data, but I don't know if they are willing or able to do so. The next best way is go in and /who the server a bunch, but I don't have time for that. This analysis is a shortcut to get at that data without nearly as much work. I hope I've been clear where I'm making assumptions and what those assumptions are. If you've got a better analysis, or a way to refine some of these assumptions, I'd love to know about it.Paige Member of the Thirteenth Legion

Pia fidelis!



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