Philip Van Cleave, the leader of extremist gun group Virginia Citizens Defense League (VCDL), sent an action alert to his supporters promoting a conspiracy theory that elected Democrats in Virginia are plotting a violent false flag incident at a January 20 pro-gun rally he is organizing. Van Cleave’s conspiratorial claims to his supporters are in contrast to the comments he has given to mainstream news outlets about the event -- which has attracted significant media coverage over fears of violence -- in which he has sought to come off as reasonable.

Following the 2019 Virginia elections in which Democrats gained control of both chambers of the legislature, Virginia lawmakers have been advancing several gun violence prevention bills with the support of Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam. As the bills move through the state legislature, an annual Lobby Day held on Capitol grounds is expected to bring in a large crowd. The day is observed on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which falls on January 20 this year, and typically draws both those seeking to strengthen gun laws and those who want to loosen them. VCDL is claiming it expects between 50,000 and 120,000 of its supporters will attend the group’s event in Richmond. In past years, VCDL’s Lobby Day participants have often openly carried handguns and assault weapons at the event. But on January 15, Northam declared a state of emergency banning all weapons from Capitol grounds this year, citing law enforcement uncovering credible threats of violence. VCDL is now asking a court to block the emergency order so that guns will be allowed at the event.

The far-right media ecosystem has been hyping the prospect of violence at the event and many well-known extremist figures and militias have expressed their intention to attend, including some organizers of the deadly 2017 “Unite the Right” rally held in Charlottesville, Virginia. Numerous threats of violence have been posted on the 4chan “politically incorrect” message board “/pol/,” which is a known hotspot for white nationalists, and the FBI has reportedly arrested three members of a white supremacist organization on gun charges over fears they were plotting violence at the protests.

In a January 16 action alert that was published to pro-gun media outlet AmmoLand.com, Van Cleave adopted a conspiracy theory that has been circulating for weeks at Alex Jones’ Infowars outlet to claim Democrats were plotting false flag violence at the rally in order to discredit his group. In the alert, Van Cleave called Northam’s emergency order “illegal” and emphasized to supporters that “you can carry on 9th Street, or other nearby streets, as long as you don't go into the fenced-in Capitol grounds area.” The alert also contradicts Virginia law enforcement -- as well as documented reporting on threats -- with the claim that “to our knowledge, there are no credible threats of violence.” But if violence were to occur, the VCDL alert suggests that it would be a plot by “Democrat leadership” who would have “invited violent groups to attend for the purpose of disrupting our peaceful assembly”: