After a year of blizzards, hurricanes, record heat and flooding, experts say New Jersey may soon experience something it hasn’t been accustomed to in recent years: A normal winter.

Several weather forecasting outlets, including the National Weather Service, predict New Jersey will return to a more typical winter in the coming months, with seasonal snowfall totals falling back to average levels, mainly in the range of 15 to 35 inches from south to north.

"For snow lovers, it will probably be enough to keep them happy but it’s not going to be like it was during the last two years," said Accuweather expert senior meteorologist Jack Boston. "I think the areas that are really going to take it on the chin are places further inland."

The reason, meteorologists say, is tied to a weaker La Niña pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean. In the past few years, a strong La Niña, which causes below-normal sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that affect global weather patterns, has thrust New Jersey into the heart of winter’s volatile weather.

Frank Lombardo, president of Hackettstown-based weather consulting firm Weather Works, said the weaker La Niña will cause weaker atmospheric blocking in the Pacific Northwest, which in recent years has forced cold Arctic air deep into the southern United States.

"In the last two years, we’ve had these deep arctic outbreaks. We think that’s going to be more relaxed this year," Lombardo said. "In turn, that will shift heavier snows further north."

That’s not to say winter isn’t expected to be active.

Both Accuweather and Weather Works anticipate the early part of the winter will be more active and colder, making New Jersey’s best chance for snow in December or January, or perhaps even earlier.

"We think that the pattern we’re in right now will shift fairly early in the fall, and that we could see an early statewide snowfall in November," Lombardo said.

Long-term forecasting has gotten far more reliable in recent years, but it’s anything but set in stone.

"It’s a little bit like the butterfly effect, that even a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere can change the course of what happens elsewhere," National Weather Service Meteorologist Al Cope said earlier this year. "Even a small disturbance in the atmosphere or an error in the forecast models has the potential, over time, to dramatically affect the forecast."

Stephen Stirling is a New Jersey weather fanatic. He welcomes suggestions for weather-related stories, issues and topics. Drop him a note at sstirling@starledger.com or follow him on Twitter for live updates.