Bernie Sanders has often been described as the Donald Trump of the Democratic Party. They are both abrasive, New York-born outsiders who are shaking the establishment. But in terms of the states he is winning, Sanders is closer to Ted Cruz, while Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton is the one who really resembles Trump.

So far, Hillary Clinton has won twelve states, eight of which are also states on Trump’s victory scorecard: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. In contrast, Sanders has won eight states, only two of which overlap with Trump states: Vermont (where Sanders is a senator and local hero) and New Hampshire (which neighbors Vermont).

Ted Cruz has won six states, of which three are also Sanders states (Kansas, Maine, and Oklahoma) and two are Clinton states (Iowa and Texas). But it’s worth noting that the overlap with Clinton is somewhat anomalous. Cruz had a home state advantage in Texas, and Iowa was a state where Clinton and Sanders ended up in a virtual tie.

Leaving Iowa and Texas aside as explainable exceptions to the rule, it is fair to say that Clinton does well in states that Trump is likely to win and Sanders does well in states where Cruz is strong. How do we explain this pattern?



The Sanders/Cruz states tend to be very white. Leaving aside Texas, the most diverse state Cruz holds is Oklahoma, which at 72 percent white is still notably more white than America as a whole (63 percent white). Conversely, Clinton/Trump states, clustered around the South, tend to be much more diverse, and are especially likely to have large African-American populations.