Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most vulnerable senator remains a Republican.

Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.

The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the 10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining unchanged.

North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth. Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins, whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.

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