The bushfires that have ravaged large parts of Australia since September 2019 have resulted in a scale of destruction that will take years, if not decades, of recovery.

The mammoth task that will be Australia’s national bushfire recovery has garnered financial support from numerous private donors and a $2bn commitment from the federal government, including a $76m package allocated to mental health services for affected persons. So what exactly are the expected mental health impacts of the bushfires?

To try and anticipate the direct mental health impacts from the current bushfires, one can look to research conducted after the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009.

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This research showed while the majority of directly affected people demonstrate resilience without indications of psychological distress, approximately one in five people in highly affected communities did experience persistent post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and psychological distress, some four times more common than people living in unaffected communities.

Five years after the Black Saturday bushfires, rates of mental illness were still elevated. With the area burned by the current bushfires more than 30 times that of Black Saturday, it is reasonable to expect related mental health issues to increase proportionally.

However, the mental health impacts of this bushfire season will extend far beyond those who have been directly affected by the fires themselves. The relationships between climate events – such as bushfires – and mental health are complex and far-reaching.

Hazardous air quality has wreaked havoc on the health of Australians and has been declared a public health emergency. What is less appreciated is the impacts poor air quality may have on mental health, with links to negative effects on cognitive function and serious mental illness. Resultant daily life inconveniences can also have psychological impacts on individuals’ sense of autonomy and control.

Another lesser-known impact arises from the strong connection between nutritional status and mental health. The drought and bushfires have resulted in significant losses in the agricultural sector with soaring costs of fruit and vegetables expected. Reduced food security and nutritional intake have demonstrated mental health impacts.

The bushfire crisis has borne witness to the first Australians displaced by a disaster which is undeniably linked to climate change. Loss of homes and associated identity are major risk factors for mental illness, as are eroded social networks as communities disperse in different directions.

Global statistics already estimate that in 2017 the majority of displaced persons were as a result of climate-related disasters; however, most of these people have been from lower-income countries which have been considered more vulnerable to climate change. The current context brings into question whether the factors which once made Australia resilient to disasters will be relevant into the future, an anxiety-provoking prospect for many.

Across Australia and internationally, the unrelenting day-by-day realities of climate change and the current bushfire crisis are raising a range of normal and expected emotions, including grief, frustration, guilt, helplessness and fear. For many, this has transitioned to a state of being overwhelmed, frequently described as eco-anxiety.

The American Psychological Association defines eco-anxiety as “a chronic fear of environmental doom”. While eco-anxiety is not a diagnosable mental disorder, it can have significant impacts on a person’s wellbeing.

The good news is there is available support for individuals whose mental health is impacted, either directly or indirectly, by the Australian bushfires. Many people who experience symptoms of psychological distress as a result of the bushfires will remain under a threshold which will not require clinical interventions.

For these people, strategies for alleviating the symptoms of climate-related anxiety include becoming a part of the solution by adopting a “green lifestyle” and advocating for climate action, as well as bolstering individual resilience to stress, loss and uncertainty. This resilience can be enhanced by connection with friends, family and community; and by engaging in healthy diet, exercise and sleep.

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However, a proportion of people will experience more severe and prolonged psychological distress and will require evidence-based psychological interventions to support their mental health recovery.

Support for affected communities will be crucial to our mental health recovery. Communities need a timely return to normalcy, flanked by security and empowerment.

It is well-understood that social cohesion and social capital can protect communities against mental and physical health impacts during a climate-related disaster, and a comprehensive rebuilding should be a key focus as a result.

Last but not least, our nation’s mental health recovery from the 2019-20 bushfires will be slow and challenging. Recovery will not be guaranteed by a short-term view backed up with temporary investments.

Australia needs a long-term vision backed up by the development and implementation of a national strategy on climate, health and wellbeing.