Chung Eui-yong, President Moon Jae-in's national security officer and envoy to North Korea, gives a news briefing about his northern visit at Cheong Wa Dae on Tuesday night. / Yonhap



By Oh Young-jin



The third inter-Korean summit in April, North Korea's conditional pledge to give up its nuclear weapons and renounce provocations against South Korea, its willingness to speak to the United States and a moratorium on testing have been capped by an invitation for Seoul to send a cultural delegation, including a taekwondo demonstration team, to Pyongyang.



The March 6 announcements are stunning to say the least. If they come true, there could surely be a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.



Hurrah to the South Korean presidential envoys for making such a deal during their two-day visit to the North and congratulations to President Moon Jae-in. Let's give ourselves a collective pat on the back for what is expected to be a dramatic wind down of tension that was speculated to peak with a U.S. preemptive strike -- bloody nose or all-out war.



Before we throw all caution to the wind and get drunk with joy and hope, don't we need to take stock of this gift horse and look it in the mouth, just in case?



After all, we have had this euphoria at least twice before -- the 2000 summit under President Kim Dae-jung and the 2007 summit of Roh Moo-hyun, both with Kim Jong-il, the deceased father of the present North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.



What happened on both occasions? One thing for sure is that both summits led to a brief diversion from confrontation but failed to bring about a lasting peace. Maybe the third time could be lucky -- taking the inter-Korean momentum to the critical mass that was not reached before. Even if a longer respite of peace doesn't come, many would settle for a disruption in the ongoing spiral of one-upmanship that was scheduled to start with the resumption of the ROK-U.S. joint military drills. The drills were put on hold during the PyeongChang Olympics when the North Korean leader sent his sister as an envoy to the South.



Even if for the sole purpose of trying to turn that brief lull into one that lasts, it is important to try to fathom how the current situation could develop -- say, in order to prevent the summit from turning into a Trojan horse. Let's look from the perspective of Kim Jong-un, Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump.





North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks with South Korea's presidential envoys. / Yonhap



Kim Jong-un



The North Korean dictator has a lot to benefit from.



First, he has polished his image. Before the agreement, he was a butcher-dictator who treated people's lives like those of flies. Now he finds himself in the position of promoting peace. Just imagine what kind _ and amount _ of publicity he would get if and when he meets in South Korean-controlled parts of Panmunjom, the truce village. His father dared not come out of his cocoon, playing host to the two southern leaders in Pyongyang in the previous summits.



In the lead-up to, during and sometime after the summit, the United Nations and the U.S. would find it very hard to sustain the current level of sanctions that are said to be biting into the North's impoverished economy. Seoul violated some of the sanctions to accommodate northern envoy Kim Yo-jong during the Olympics and would be more willing to act on the North's behalf.



With that, Kim can also spare himself from the worrisome prospect of an American preemptive strike, which, if it happens, would spell his demise, whether he hits back or not.



That would buy Kim time and give him an opening.



As the North under his father adroitly used the peace dividend from the previous summits to promote weapons of mass destruction, the young Kim would do the same to master his intercontinental missiles that can target the entire U.S. and finesse the program to make workable hydrogen bombs.



If the previous pattern serves as any guide, the North would gain access to a lot of assistance from the South and other countries.



But most importantly, the North might drive a wedge into the ROK-U.S. alliance as an outcry is expected over dealing with the North because the two allies differ in their priorities. The South wants no war, while the U.S. wants no nuclear-armed North Korea. It then comes down to one question: how would the U.S. react if Seoul asks it to remove its troops as a result of irreconcilable differences.



Moon Jung-in, the professor who guides President Moon in North Korean policy, partially answered that question recently when he stated that Moon, as leader of a sovereign country, has the right to make that request. True, there are legal procedures to be followed but otherwise it was not incorrect. The U.S. said its military is in Korea at the invitation of its host, Korea. It remains to be seen whether Moon or his progressive successor would make such a call and whether the U.S. would oblige.



Still, if Kim can rupture the ROK-U.S. connections, he may think he is halfway to achieving his father's dream of communizing the South for unification. But things would not go as he thinks.





President Moon Jae-in/ Yonhap



Moon Jae-in



The President finds himself at the wheel, metaphorically speaking, of the ship called "Our Destiny" to steer the Korean Peninsula away from another war. That is what he has wanted all along.



He has significant momentum with him to lead the way and the U.S. will have no choice but to wait and see how Moon's approach bears fruit. The North will behave for a while at least.



But Moon is on borrowed time and he knows it from the experience of the previous summits. During the 2007 summit, he worked as chief-of-staff for President Roh.



Above all, the March 6 agreements are ones for agreement sake in a way. Each of the entries in the announcement is accompanied with significant qualifiers, and history is also stacked against success.



For instance, the third clause was about the North making clear its intention to denuclearize if its security is guaranteed. The devil is in detail and therein lies the rub. All kinds of guarantees that are imaginable have been offered, one way or another, but the North has pushed for its WMD programs.

Then, the North has spoken and acted in a way that nuclear-armed long-range missiles are its only ticket to survival. This North Korean thinking does make sense. If the North opens up and imitates China, it would certainly lead to its demise _ the collapse of its economy and the downfall of the Kim dynasty. And if Kim or any other member of the ruling class think change is controllable, that would be a pipe dream.



About the North's willingness to talk with the U.S. on denuclearization, it could be seen as repetition of its erstwhile stance. What has prevented their dialogue is the dichotomy in the agenda for talks between the U.S. and the North.

Then there is the U.S. and Trump, who is convinced that the North can't be trusted.

All along, Washington has warned Seoul that the North was deceiving when it was engaged in peace offensives, through summits or otherwise. True, there is another version, that it is the South and the U.S. that have pushed the North to take the nuclear option.



When all is said and done, it is easy to see how impossible Moon's mission of reconciliation is. But Moon has been driven by two convictions _ there should be no war and, given time, the South will prevail over the North. In other words, Moon is in the game of maintaining the status quo without war.





U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu / Yonhap-Reuters