When Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy decided to impose direct rule over Catalonia in October, and call a snap election to replace its regional parliament – after it had declared independence from Spain – he thought he was “restoring normality” to Catalan politics and putting an end to the conflict.

Instead, the election has shown that conflict is the new normal. The pro-independence parties have again secured an absolute majority, and they vow to restore the same government Rajoy dismissed two months ago.

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But far from a deja vu, this will be something never seen before, for the likely president of that government, Carles Puigdemont, is in self-imposed exile in Belgium, some of his ministers are in jail in Spain, and all are accused by the supreme court of rebellion, a charge that could result in up to 30 years in prison. Rajoy’s gamble has certainly backfired. It could be argued that he didn’t have much choice, once the Catalan parliament had broken the law. And the move did defuse the declaration of independence. But the idea that it would permanently resolve the crisis was predicated on an assumption that is very popular in Spain but is wrong: that there is a “hidden pro-Spain majority” in Catalonia, which has never been allowed to express itself at the polls, cowed by the prevailing nationalist atmosphere.

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If only – the argument went – there could be an election with the central government in control instead of the nationalist-led one, a different Catalonia would emerge. But the result of last week’s election, with a record turnout of almost 82%, shows there are no more “hidden votes” for Spain. There’s no clear pro-Spain majority, and there is no majority for independence either.

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Catalonia is what it is, take it or leave it – and I don’t mean either literally.

So, what now? The obvious course of action would be a dialogue, but that is still not on the cards. Puigdemont would not settle for anything less than independence or a legally binding referendum. Rajoy says the constitution does not allow it, which is true. Changing the constitution, if there were the will to do so, is a daunting task.

The majorities that are needed – including an all-Spain referendum on the reform – make it almost impossible. Only a consensus among all the parties, like the one that made possible the constitution itself, could work the miracle. But not even at Christmas does that seem likely.

For now, we’re left with what has been the main driver of this conflict for five years: fate. Both sides seem to put all their trust in theirs. Puigdemont may have won a majority, but he knows he must return to Catalonia to be pronounced president, and then he will be arrested and sent to jail. He certainly hopes the ensuing international scandal will help him out. He shouldn’t count on that. Half his government has already been jailed without the international community uttering a whisper.

Even in Catalonia the reaction has been surprisingly muted. The main asset of the Catalan movement has always been its ability to mobilise hundreds of thousands of supporters on the streets. Now the quiet imposition of direct rule has shown that to be a paper tiger, at least for now. Puigdemont can only hope to resist, but not to win.

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As for Rajoy, he may stick to the orthodoxy of the law and hope things will change, his trademark strategy. To be fair, it has worked for him many times. But in this case, it means worsening the surreal situation in Catalan politics. In the absence of a political initiative, the judges will continue to treat the nationalist movement as a “rebellion against the state”, an obvious exaggeration.

This will inevitably result in the jailing of the Catalonia government, many of its MPs and perhaps dozens of other leaders, who will be given decades-long prison terms. Even Europe, which has remained unquestionably on Rajoy’s side, may begin to ask questions. But then, if both sides have chosen to let fate decide, they will have to live with its verdict. If we are to trust the centuries-old literature on the subject, fate rarely makes good decisions.

Miguel-Anxo Murado is a Spanish writer and journalist