Shutdown won't hurt Tea Party: Column

The poll numbers tell the story of a Republican Party that has shouldered much of the public's blame for the government shutdown and the near-default. These dismaying numbers, no doubt, are a major concern to many Republican House members who are up for re-election in 2014.

There is one group, in particular, that stands to lose more than any other and it's not the Tea Party contingent that has used its distaste for Obamacare to jam the gears of Congress.

Instead, it is the couple of dozen moderate House Republicans who will likely pay the price for the rashness of their ultraconservative colleagues. The reason is simple: Unlike their Tea Party colleagues who hold safe seats, these House members are in the GOP's most vulnerable districts.

The predicament of the moderates is a reflection of the harshness of the political divisions in our country today. Their vulnerability stems from the fact that they have voted as a bloc with conservatives on the more than 40 votes to defund Obamacare in the interests of party unity. That record makes it hard for them to dissociate themselves from the Tea Party, which can now be a liability even in moderately strong Republican districts. Historically, this is the fix that Southern and border-state Democrats found themselves in when they supported the civil rights programs of Democratic presidents.

Unsentimental business

If there is anything like a certainty in American politics it is that the Democrats, in search of the 17 seats they need to regain control of the House, will target these susceptible Republicans. Electoral politics is a very unsentimental business and a highly paradoxical one, in which Democrats are working to unseat the Republicans who are most likely to cooperate with them.

Chances are that there are about two dozen names on the hit list of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the organization charged with deposing Republicans. These are Republicans who are known to students of elections as "marginals" — members who have won their seats with less than 60% of the two-party vote. There is a subgroup that might be referred to as the "ultramarginals" — those who are elected with less than 55%.

The Democrats will waste little time or money on the fire eaters of the Tea Party, including those who have been most outspoken against Obamacare and urged its repeal or delay.

Even in such a state such as Arizona, where Democrats are becoming more competitive, they will probably not want to invest much money in challenges to Republican Reps. Trent Franks, who won his last election with almost 63.7%, or Paul Gosar, with 67%. Even in a highly competitive state such as Florida, Republican Rep. Ted Yoho, one of the most outspoken advocates of a default as a cure for Obamacare, won in 2012 with a comfortable 64.7%. But his Republican neighbor, Rep. Daniel Webster, has no such cushion. He won his seat with a trifle more than 51.8%.

'Marginal' moderates

Republican "marginals" such as Webster are vulnerable especially in states that President Obama won in 2012. There are 16 of them, and even if the Democrats win them all in 2014, it will still not give them the majority they need to take back the House. Even so, 16 Democratic wins would dramatically change the dynamics in the House by making Republican control vulnerable to even a handful of defections.

All of which may make moderate House Republicans even more vulnerable. They will need to keep their wary eyes not only on Democrats but also on threats from their own party. The Tea Party that reviles the moderates as RINOs — Republicans in name only — will likely challenge them in primary elections.

There is, of course, an entire year between now and the 2014 elections, and it is certainly possible that the agonies of 2013 will fade from the memories of the voters. But if those major sticking points over the budget and the debt are simply kicked down to road until next year, the memory of voters will be fresher.

Putting the shutdowns and brushes with default behind them as quickly as possible is imperative if these endangered moderate Republicans are to survive.

Ross K. Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors.

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