Larry Nance Jr.'s NBA draft stock has risen

AP

LARAMIE, Wyo. (AP) — Larry Nance Jr's ticket to the NBA may have very little to do with his basketball skillset.

The former Wyoming star's humble, inviting personality has impressed scouts and general managers during workouts leading up to Thursday's NBA Draft every bit as much as his game.

In an era where most of the top picks are still a year or two away from legal drinking age, drafting a mature, developed young man is a rarity.

"I think people are viewing him as a complete player," said Sam Amico, an NBA writer for Fox Sports. "A guy who doesn't have height for an NBA superstar, but a guy who does everything well enough. I know this for sure, he's really impressed people in his interviews with his maturity and just his overall personality. They put a lot of stock into those interviews."

A few years ago, Amico asked longtime San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich how he's found so much success with late first- and second-round draft picks.

On the Spurs' 2014 NBA championship team, only Tim Duncan had been a top-14 pick. He went first overall in 1997. The rest weren't high-profile, soon-to-be-superstar players. They were solid team players, high-character guys willing to play their role.

Popovich's secret?

"He told me, 'We draft people who have gotten over themselves,'" Amico said.

More than maybe any other draft prospect, Nance fits that mold.

"I've heard from the Spurs themselves that they love him." Amico told the Casper Star-Tribune (http://bit.ly/1HgzjxI). "The fact that they love him and the word's out about that has probably made a lot more teams interested just because everybody wants to be like the Spurs."

Nance averaged 16.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game as a senior, leading the Cowboys to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002. He shot 51.4 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line, while also posting 2.5 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals per contest.

So where does that leave Nance's draft stock?

Analysts' prognostications vary, but the consensus is that it's risen since the end of UW's season.

"I've heard first round," Amico said. "What they do, these general managers and these scouts, they have their draft boards and they put guys in order of where they would draft them. He's moved up on those draft boards. From everything I can tell, anywhere from the late-20s to maybe even early-20s."

Said Jeff Goodman, a basketball insider for ESPN: "I think he goes second round somewhere, mid-second round, something like that. I think he played well enough at the (NBA Draft) Combine and he was one of the better players there."

Added Jon Rothstein, a college basketball insider for CBS Sports: "I think he can be a second-round pick, but he could also be likely to be a guy who sticks in the NBA Summer League or as a free agent because he knows how to play and he's an older player."

ESPN NBA insider Chad Ford predicted in his latest mock draft that Nance will be picked by the Indiana Pacers at No. 43. He noted that Nance's late momentum has "several teams considering him in the first round."

DraftExpress.com's Jonathan Givony has Nance heading to the New Orleans Pelicans with the 56th pick, while NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper expects him to land with the Dallas Mavericks at No. 52.

CBSSports.com's three mock drafters all see Nance being drafted in the 53-56 range, while Sports Illustrated doesn't list him in its top 60 available players.

Teams' primary concern with Nance is first and foremost, does he have a position? Does he project as a small forward or a power forward?

Secondly, can he consistently knock down shots from the perimeter? At Wyoming, Nance was a 30.8 percent career 3-point shooter. As a senior, he made 14 of 42 attempts from long range (33.3 percent).

And lastly, there's still some negative stigma against four-year players.

In 2014, consensus national player of the year Doug McDermott of Creighton went 11th overall to the Denver Nuggets before a draft-night trade to the Chicago Bulls. He only played 36 games as a rookie, partly due to a torn meniscus. Still, at No. 13, the Minnesota Timberwolves selected then 19-year-old Zach Lavine, who played just one year at UCLA. He wound up appearing in 77 games, averaging 10.1 points.

"The unfortunate thing is, a lot of people sometimes hold it against you that you stayed in school for so long," Rothstein said.

Then again, Golden State's Draymond Green spent four years at Michigan State before being picked 35th by the Warriors in 2012. He played a crucial role during the team's NBA championship run earlier this month.

The consensus among analysts is that it's vital for Nance to find the right fit. Whether that be through the draft or through a free-agent signing, the key is for him to land in a situation where both coach and general manager understand his value.

"If Draymond Green went to a different team, he might not get off the bench the first couple years," Goodman said. "He may still be a guy who's playing five minutes a game somewhere as the ninth or 10th man. So much is based on situation."

At the Combine and during individual team workouts, Nance has impressed because he has played to his strengths, Goodman said. He hasn't tried to specifically prove doubters that he can shoot from the perimeter or that he has a defined position.

Instead, he simply supplied effort, energy and rebounding — the things that made him a two-time All-Mountain West selection at Wyoming.

"The one thing about him is he'll accept his role, he'll do all the dirty work," Goodman said. "There aren't a lot of guys like that. I think he's just got to figure out a way to get to the right situation.

"... I think he's a guy that, given the opportunity, is going to make a team and play in the league for a long time. So much of it is based on your opportunity and your situation."

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Information from: Casper (Wyo.) Star-Tribune, http://www.trib.com