1.19pm: Barring any sudden and unexpected developments we're bringing this live blog to a close now.

As our story says, it does seem clear that Aung San Suu Kyi will be spending – at least – one more night under house arrest. She could now be free tomorrow, the official expiry date of her current 18-month term. But it could take considerably longer if the junta is seeking to impose conditions on her freedom and will not back down. Thanks for all your comments.

1.04pm: I've just spoken to the Guardian's Jack Davies in Rangoon, who has spent a good part of the day observing the scenes at the roadblock near Aung San Suu Kyi's house, where the hopeful crowds have gathered.



Note: to listen to the full audio, turn off the auto-refresh button at the top of this page.

Many police and soldiers were there too, he said, but only – thus far – to observe:

We [journalists] were being filmed and photographed, with notes taken about who we were speaking to. There's an enormous security presence.

12.14pm: The Guardian's Jack Davies in Rangoon has contacted us to say Aung San Suu Kyi will now not be freed today as she is demanding unconditional release. This is what he says:

Aung San Suu Kyi appears set to spend one extra, but likely final, night under house arrests, as she negotiates the terms of her release with the Burmese junta.

The regime signed the order this afternoon authorising her release. But Aung San Suu Kyi is understood to be demanding an unconditional release while the regime is attempting to restrict her from travelling around the country and limit her freedom to meet with supporters.

At dusk, U Win Tin, the NLD co-founder, appeared at the military roadblock outside the gates of her house where hundreds of supporters had gathered. He said Aung San Suu Kyi had been told she "could go this day", but that it was likely it would be one more night before she emerged in public because of an impasse in negotiations.

12.05pm: This is all from Twitter, and thus comes with the inevitable health warnings, but some second-hand reports purporting to be from Rangoon are saying NLD supporters now don't expect anything till tomorrow and that – more ominously – some of them are being threatened by security officials.

11.55am: Still on the will they/won't they subject, Reuters has an interesting Q&A about what the junta might hope to gain by freeing Aung San Suu Kyi.

Here's a snippet:

Now that the regime's chosen party has won [Sunday's election], it might seek to win some international legitimacy by freeing Suu Kyi at a time when she is little threat to the formation of a government it can choose and control. Her release might also appease the Burmese public and ward off the threat of protests.

11.36am:

Note: to listen to the full audio, turn off the auto-refresh button at the top of this page.

I've had a chat with Niall Couper from Amnesty International, who agrees that there's no way of knowing when the release could happen. He also points out that even if Aung San Suu Kyi is freed the junta could arrest her again the moment she addresses her supporters. He notes: "I wouldn't see this as a watershed moment. What you have here is one political prisoner among 2,200."

Note: the audio fades for a second in a couple of places, but that's just my phone connection.

Aung San Suu Kyi's lakeside house in Rangoon

11.08am: For some more context, here's a picture of the house, inherited from her father, to which Aung San Suu Kyi, for now, remains exiled. It looks grand but as Jack Davies points out in his story today, it is in urgent need of repair. Plus, she's not even allowed into the gardens.

10.56am: It's now coming up to 5.30pm in Rangoon, which is almost sunset, and the available time for her predicted release to happen today is running short. That said, it would be perfectly possible for the generals to order her freedom in the middle of the night, when the crowds have dispersed outside the NLD headquarters. You can't imagine them welcoming the spectacle of Aung San Suu Kyi making a live-broadcast address to the world surrounded by cheering supporters. It might put the weekend's election results in some context.

10.34am: Let's also briefly remind ourselves of the bizarre circumstances which saw Aung San Suu Kyi's term of detention extended until now.

In May last year a seemingly eccentric and somewhat confused American man, John Yettaw, who had entered Burma on a tourist visa, donned a pair of homemade flippers and swam across the lake at the rear of her house, arriving exhausted. Aung san Suu Kyi wanted him to leave immediately but reluctantly allowed him to sleep there overnight. The junta's response was a set-piece trial which ended in an extra 18-month period of house arrest, conveniently taking beyond the date of Sunday's election.

10.24am: CNN has talked to a fairly long list of Burma experts, who all seem to take pretty much the same line: we really don't know when the release will come as it's entirely at the whim of the junta. The broadcaster does report that five or six police trucks were seen near her home and that one was seen entering the compound.

10.12am: France 24 TV has obtained, via a Bumese campaigning group, what it says is video footage of the demonstrators outside the NLD headquarters. Thus far it all looks pretty calm. Near the end of the video are some people speaking to camera: any instant translations welcome.

Aung San Suu Kyi supporters gather at the National League for Democracy headquarters in Rangoon for her expected release Photograph: Khin Maung Win/AP

10.07am:

As Just mentioned above - these are some of Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters rallying outside the NLD headquarters in Rangoon.

9.59am: A roundup from the news wires:

The Associated Press reports that hundreds of supporters have gathered outside the NLD headquarters in Rangoon anticipation of her release. The news agency quotes Tin Oo, Aung San Suu Kyi's loyal deputy in the party, as saying: "My sources tell me that the release order has been signed."

AFP, meanwhile, quotes an unnamed Burmese government official: "The authorities will release her. It is certain."

Reuters, however, cite a Burma expert with Human Rights Watch in Thailand as urging sensible caution. David Mathieson said: "Government people don't know, Suu Kyi's party doesn't know and the experts certainly don't know. No one knows any more than anyone else. We know her house arrest expires on Saturday and everything else is all within the realm of speculation."

9.52am: While we await fresh news, here's some useful background:

• If you haven't already read it, the Guardian's Jack Davies in Rangoon has a fascinating piece today about Aung San Suu Kyi's life under house arrest, and the many sacrifices she has made – among these not seeing her children for a decade and never yet meeting her grandchildren.

• Here's something more on last weekend's elections.

• A fascinating photo gallery we ran in June of the younger Aung San Suu Kyi in more carefree days, incouding some very touching family pictures.

• And finally, a brief Guardian profile from a couple of years ago.

9.39am: As ever with matters inside Burma the picture is murky, but there is increasing speculation that the country's long-detained pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, could be released from her latest period of house arrest later today. The term officially ends tomorrow anyway, and there has been a flurry of reported activity near her Rangoon lakeside home and a series of reports saying Burma's military rulers have sanctioned her freedom.

There is, of course, plenty that could still go wrong, not least that Aung San Suu Kyi is expected to reject any release that comes with conditions, for example that she is not allowed to travel freely around Burma.

To remind you all: Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in elections in 1990 which were promptly ignored by the junta. She has spent three-quarters of the subsequent two decades in various forms of detention.

The first elections since then took place on Sunday but were widely labelled a sham by outside observers. The NLD refused to take part and has now been ordered by the military to disband. The junta-dominated Union Solidarity and Development Party looks set to take almost all the seats in both houses of parliament. Among the new MPs is Thein Sein, the current prime minister, who stepped down from the military to stand.