Blog Post

AEIdeas

Let’s face it, the fork in the road from Saudi Arabia came some time ago. Was it in Yemen? The Hariri kidnapping episode? The corruption crackdown? The execution of Sheikh Nimr? The arrest of prominent women reformers? The question is moot. Word is that today, the Kingdom will announce that “rogue elements” were responsible for accidentally murdering Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi while interrogating him at their consulate in Istanbul. This was the inevitable outcome following the hemorrhaging of support from the US and elsewhere. Addressing, even falsely, the Khashoggi crime will bring Saudi Arabia and its young de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), to another fork in the road.

Before you throw your hands up in disgust at their “getting away with it,” a few points:

This hypocrisy is a staple of Western foreign-policy. China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Turkey, and many of that ilk are responsible for similar crimes. Apart from Turkey, we can say that the others are not members of the club of civilized nations; Turkey, of course, is a member of NATO. Sure, Saudi should be better. It is a nominal ally. But please. This is the country that is among those most responsible for this era’s spread of Sunni Islamist extremism. Riyadh has moved far in the right direction in recent years, but it is no Jeffersonian democracy.

Many have given into the great temptation to suggest this is all Donald Trump’s fault. That’s rubbish. Neither he, nor Jared Kushner, nor anybody in the United States is responsible for MBS’ decision. The Crown Prince didn’t need encouragement to make one bad call after another. This is the nature of youth, inexperience, and autocracy. And if you can’t restrain yourself from blaming Trump, spare a moment to blame Obama for the war in Syria, expansion of Iranian influence in Lebanon, escalation in Yemen , and . . . Well, you get the picture. This is just the politics of catharsis, not a terribly productive way to manage a foreign policy challenge.

Saudi Arabia will lie, and much of the world will want to be lied to. It’s not just the oil. It’s the oil, regional politics, Iran, a new alignment with Israel, and so many other regional imperatives. There is no other Saudi Arabia — no regional power which has the resources and the will to provide a counterweight to Iran and help lead us out of the current morass. Egypt is no longer that nation; the UAE is too small. Iraq is too riven. The key question is that new fork in the road. Will MBS take the right turn?

What would a new direction for Saudi Arabia look like? How would lessons learned manifest themselves? For starters:

A thorough scrub of political prisoners, and the release of those who have committed no real crimes.

A national commission (I would say international, but I’m trying to be realistic) to assess the conduct of the war in Yemen.

A real ambassador in Washington so that messages are flowing not just between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and the White House. (The Crown Prince’s younger brother seemed a nice enough fellow, but 28 is not the age or the experience for this job. Word is he’s leaving, but who will come next?)

There’s obviously much more to do if MBS is to hang on and complete the transformation of Saudi Arabia into a “real” and modern country. Horribly, and ironically, the Khashoggi killing could provide that opportunity if MBS is man enough, leader enough, and kingly enough to take it. We shall see soon enough.