'North Korea seeks sanctions relief this year': experts

Kim Jong-un (Yonhap)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s timeline for denuclearization would involve getting at least partial sanctions relief this year in return for taking steps to abandon its nuclear weapons, experts say.In a commentary carried by the North’s state-run Rodong Sinmun on Monday, North Korea said it is following its own timeline to join the international community in constructing a peaceful, nuclear-free world.North Korea’s mention of its “own timeline” came as officials from North Korea and the US were holding meetings on the border village of Panmunjeom, as well as in Singapore to prepare for the meeting between Kim and US President Donald Trump on June 12.The two countries seem to agree that North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons programs in return for a security guarantee from the US. But they appear to be struggling to iron out differences -- a timeframe for denuclearization of North Korea and rewards from the US -- at the working-level meetings currently underway.Kim, who is seeking to consolidate his power and justify his regime at home, needs the US to ease sanctions to create an environment to boost the economy as quickly as possible, said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.North Korea’s denuclearization timeline could quicken in accordance with how quickly the US could ensure Kim will remain in power after he gives up his nuclear arsenal, he said.“It is up to President Trump. I think Kim is willing to give up his nuclear weapons programs at the same pace as the US take measures to guarantee the Kim Jong-un regime’s survival,” he said. “North Korea’s timetable for denuclearization would be in sync with that of Trump -- so possibly within two years before Trump faces the 2020 presidential election.”Pyongyang’s push for its “own timeline” for denuclearization is not new. It has stressed it will abandon its nuclear weapons programs step-by step and demanded concessions from the US in accordance, highlighting differences between the North and the US in their views of how to achieve denuclearization.Washington has demanded North Korea denuclearize in a short period of time in a complete, verifiable and irreversible way, saying it will not give any concessions to the North until denuclearization is completed.If the US wants North Korea to denuclearize quickly, the US could lift sanctions that are at Trump’s discretion or establish partial diplomatic relations with the North by setting up a liaison office and representative office -- some of the measures that are not subject to approval by the US Congress, said Hong Min.“North Korea desperately needs to show its people that relations with the US are repaired, which would be a big achievement for Kim,” he said. “It would be symbolic, which could lead other countries to drop their guard toward the North.”North Korea would be willing to get rid of some of its nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting the US mainland, and disable the Yongbyon nuclear facility as a first step, he said.The North already closed its Punggye-ri nuclear site -- where five out of six nuclear tests were conducted -- last week. Three of the four tunnels remaining intact were blown up in front of a small group of international journalists, though experts are unsure whether the closure is irreversible.Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Far East Institute, echoed a similar view, saying 2018 is crucial for Kim Jong-un who seeks to pave the way for establishing a strong socialist country. Sanctions relief would be what he needs the most now to achieve tangible economic development before his five-year economic development strategy expires in 2021.North Korea held the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea from May 6-9, 2016, announcing a five-year economic development plan. Kim said at a plenary session of the ruling party in April that it is “the strategic line of the Workers’ Party of Korea to concentrate all efforts of the whole party and the country on the socialist economic construction.”“The year 2020 and 2021 are more important to Kim, than to Trump,” he said. “Failing to hold the Eighth Party Congress with the results of the five-year economic development plan in 2020 or 2021 could pose a threat to the Kim Jong-un regime,” he said.“Kim needs the year 2018 to create momentum to shift its focus to economic development. For that reason, easing of sanctions is most important for Kim. To get sanctions relief this year, North Korea seems to be taking bold actions showing its willingness to denuclearize,” he added.By Ock Hyun-ju (laeticia.ock@heraldcorp.com)