BPSDBWhen it comes to climate change the stakes for humanity are high in the extreme, so you might think the people advising a laissez faire approach (aka Deniers) to the problem would want to be absolutely certain of their facts.

Something they would be willing to bet their money on for example.

Not phony challenges like Milloy’s Carny Scam, but actually risk their own money as well as your life.

Turns out not to be the case.

It seems it started in 1995 when scientist Paul Ehrlich and physicists John Harte and John Holdren offered to bet Denier Julian Simon that the years 2002-2004 would be warmer than 1992-199. Simon refused and thereby saved his money.

In 2005 climate scientist James Annan challenged Denier Richard Lindzen (and here), who declined. He then bet numerous other prominent Deniers without any takers until finally Mashnich and Bashkirtsev accepted a bet.

Scientist and writer George Monbiot offered to bet Denier Myron Ebell 5,000 British pounds, and suddenly Ebell thought that maybe the earth might warm a bit (amazing how large sums of money can clarify your thinking).

Brian Schmidt of “Backseat driving ” apparently liked the idea so much he has challenged many Deniers and Denier blogs to bet, again with no one willing to risk their money.

Now, in his analysis of this decade as the warmest in history and the Denier cluster fest about “2008 is the coldest year of the decade” scientist Joseph Romm states “I stand by my offer to bet $1000 that the decade from 2010 to 2019 will be warmer than the decade from 2000 to 2009“

Some dismiss these as “stunts”, but think about it. When they spread their Denier fables these people are absolutely certain that (variously) “climate change is a hoax”, or “the earth is cooling“, etc, yet they are not willing to bet on it? Why not?

You’d imagine they would see this as a chance to make some easy money,

no? When I “know” that I am right I like to sweeten it with some extra cash, why not them? It isn’t even that large an amount in most cases, particularly given that these are well paid professionals.

These largely older white men who do not expect to be around when the real catastrophe of climate change hits actually are betting. They are betting the lives of the people already dying from the effects of climate change.

They are betting your life.

Apparently that is worth a lot less than $1,000 to them.

More 2008

Key quote from Romm is “The climate story of the decade is that the 2000s are on track to be nearly 0.2°C warmer than the 1990s. And that temperature jump is especially worrisome since the 1990s were only 0.14°C warmer than the 1980s (see datasets here). Global warming is accelerating, as predicted.”

Brian Schmidt also notes that “2008 will be the warmest La Nina-influenced year discounting 1998, a year that was split between La Nina and an even stronger El Nino.” …

… “global cooling” indeed.

Red Herring Quiz Redux

Jules of Jules’ klimaatblog noticed the same Red Herring quiz discussed in my last post also appears on the Heartland Institute web site with some interesting author notes from Steve Bloom, although there is some question as to who deserves the real blame credit for the quiz.

UPDATE: Dec 8 11:30 EST: Reader frankbi notes the quiz has been discussed before at DeSmoBlog, which in turn links to an interesting post at Global Warming Watch about a “Denialist in service attack” (good one! I call them “Global Swarmings” (misappropriation of term at that)) associated with the quiz.

Speaking of the Heartland Institute (now that you have an idea of their “science”), apparently they are organizing their 2009 International Conference on Climate Change and even “to draw up to 1,000 scientists and experts.”

WOW! Maybe they’ll break last years record and get two dozen scientists!

We give our consent every moment that we do not resist.

Denier “Challenge” aka Deathwatch Update: Day 58 … still no evidence.

IMAGE CREDITS:

The Isle Casino – Pompano Park by nenortas photography

Delaware Park Race Track, Wilmington, Delaware by University of Delaware Library