Republicans increasingly see the Senate majority as being in play in 2014.

Democrats are defending 20 seats, including seven in states President Obama lost in the last election, and they have seen five of their incumbents retire, raising their bar for holding the upper chamber.

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Republicans would have to win six seats to take over the Senate, a sizable number. But in a midterm election year — when a president’s party historically loses congressional seats — GOP confidence is growing.

“The playing field is shaping up to be a positive one for Republicans in 2014,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring said. Retirements by Democrats such as Sen. Tim Johnson Timothy (Tim) Peter JohnsonCornell to launch new bipartisan publication led by former Rep. Steve Israel Trump faces tough path to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac overhaul Several hurt when truck runs into minimum wage protesters in Michigan MORE (S.D.), who formally announced Tuesday he would leave the Senate at the end of this term, are helping the GOP, he said.

Dayspring acknowledged winning the Senate won’t be easy: Republicans must get “consensus candidates” and make sure they are ready for battle. In 2012, the GOP entered the election cycle thinking it would win the upper chamber and failed, partly because of flawed candidates.

But he said things are shaping up well for the party this time.

“The playing field and weather conditions are great for us. Now we have to go out and execute,” he said.

Democrats argue they’re in strong position to retain control of the Senate despite the tough map. Things looked just as tough in 2012, they note, and they picked up two Senate seats.

“D.C. Republicans seem overconfident once again, even though the math is much more difficult for them this cycle and their influence with the conservative base has waned,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Matt Canter said. “The Republican establishment claims they are going to do a better job managing the Tea Party and handpicking mainstream candidates that can win, but they don’t seem to have any good strategy to do that.”

Republicans’ best pickup opportunities are the seven seats held by Democrats in states carried by Mitt Romney in 2012.

Open seats in South Dakota and West Virginia lead the list, and other targets include Sens. Mark Begich Mark Peter BegichAlaska group backing independent candidate appears linked to Democrats Sullivan wins Alaska Senate GOP primary Alaska political mess has legislators divided over meeting place MORE (Alaska), Mark Pryor Mark Lunsford PryorCoronavirus poses risks for Trump in 2020 Tom Cotton's only Democratic rival quits race in Arkansas Medicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 MORE (Ark.), Mary Landrieu Mary Loretta LandrieuBottom line A decade of making a difference: Senate Caucus on Foster Youth Congress needs to work to combat the poverty, abuse and neglect issues that children face MORE (La.), Kay Hagan Kay Ruthven HaganThe Hill's Campaign Report: Democratic Unity Taskforce unveils party platform recommendations Democrats awash with cash in battle for Senate The Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's job approval erodes among groups that powered his 2016 victory MORE (N.C.) and Max Baucus Max Sieben BaucusBottom line Bottom line The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - George Floyd's death sparks protests, National Guard activation MORE (Mont.).

Republicans have landed strong recruits in South Dakota and West Virginia, two seats that voted solidly against Obama in 2012. Former South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds and Rep. Shelley Moore Capito Shelley Wellons Moore CapitoGOP senator to quarantine after coronavirus exposure Hillicon Valley: Zuckerberg acknowledges failure to take down Kenosha military group despite warnings | Election officials push back against concerns over mail-in voting, drop boxes Bipartisan senators call for investigation of popular fertility app MORE (R-W.Va.) are the early favorites in those states.

Democrats have struggled to recruit a candidate to run for Sen. Jay Rockefeller John (Jay) Davison RockefellerBottom Line World Health Day: It's time to fight preventable disease Lobbying World MORE’s (D-W.Va.) seat, though they argue former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) and U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson (D) could both make South Dakota competitive.

Republicans are still looking for candidates in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and Montana.

Democratic worries in those states were highlighted by last week’s vote on the Senate Democratic budget. Only four Democrats voted against their party’s budget, but three of them were Begich, Pryor and Baucus. Landrieu voted for the budget.

The fourth Democrat to vote against her party’s budget was Hagen, who is also vulnerable in 2014.

Divisive primaries could throw off Republicans in some states, though.

In South Dakota, leaders of some outside conservative groups on Tuesday questioned whether Rounds is conservative enough to win their backing.

In Alaska, flawed 2010 GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller is mulling another run and could complicate his party’s chances at defeating Begich.

West Virginia looks like a likely GOP pickup if Capito is the nominee, yet some conservative groups have grumbled about her voting record, including the deep-pocketed Club for Growth.

There are other states Republicans hope to make competitive, including Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats are not running for reelection.

Both states were carried by Obama in 2012, so they do not represent the same opportunities as West Virginia and South Dakota. Yet with strong candidates, they could be winnable for the GOP.

Republicans have been worried that their chances of succeeding retiring Sen. Tom Harkin Thomas (Tom) Richard HarkinThe Memo: Trump attacks on Harris risk backfiring Ernst challenges Greenfield to six debates in Iowa Senate race Biden unveils disability rights plan: 'Your voices must be heard' MORE (D) in Iowa will be impaired if conservative Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) runs for the Senate.

King, who has made controversial comments about a host of subjects, might not play well with a statewide audience.

In 2012, GOP hopes of winning the Senate were hurt by their inability to hold on to several seats.

The party lost Sen. Scott Brown’s (R-Mass.) seat in a state easily won by Obama. Former Sen. Olympia Snowe’s retirement put Maine in play, another state won by Obama.

In 2014, the GOP has fewer tough races to defend.

Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden Hillicon Valley: DOJ indicts Chinese, Malaysian hackers accused of targeting over 100 organizations | GOP senators raise concerns over Oracle-TikTok deal | QAnon awareness jumps in new poll The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden asks if public can trust vaccine from Trump ahead of Election Day | Oklahoma health officials raised red flags before Trump rally MORE (Ky.) could be vulnerable, but will go into a race as a favorite.

GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss Clarence (Saxby) Saxby ChamblissLobbying world GOP lobbyist tapped for White House legislative affairs The Hill's Morning Report - Gillibrand drops out as number of debaters shrinks MORE’s retirement put Georgia, a relatively safe state for Republicans, into play. A crowded GOP primary field in the state could open the door for Democrats, but the GOP candidate is likely to be a prohibitive favorite.

The GOP also has an eye on Sens. Al Franken Alan (Al) Stuart FrankenPeterson faces fight of his career in deep-red Minnesota district Getting tight — the psychology of cancel culture Tina Smith wins Democratic Senate primary in Minnesota MORE (D-Minn.), Mark Udall Mark Emery UdallThe 10 Senate seats most likely to flip Democratic presidential race comes into sharp focus Democrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump MORE (D-Colo.) and Jeanne Shaheen Cynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenSenate Democrats introduce bill to sanction Russians over Taliban bounties Trump-backed candidate wins NH GOP Senate primary to take on Shaheen Democratic senator urges Trump to respond to Russian aggression MORE (D-N.H.), though all appear to be in a strong position for reelection at this point.



