Diplomats from the European Union’s 27 remaining member states have been told that an amendment adopted this week by MPs in the UK has substantially increased the chances of a no-deal Brexit, BuzzFeed News has learned.

The amendment, which makes it unlawful for Northern Ireland to form a separate customs territory to the rest of the UK, renders the EU’s proposal to avoid — under all circumstances — a hard border in Northern Ireland illegal.

And, the EU believes, it also means Theresa May has rowed back on commitments she made in December 2017 and March.

The prime minister agreed in a joint report signed off by the EU and the UK in December that Northern Ireland’s situation was unique, and that a solution to avoid a hard border there was required in all circumstances regardless of the nature of the future UK–EU relationship. She reiterated this commitment at a meeting of EU leaders in March.

According to a diplomatic source, diplomats were warned by a senior EU official that given the discussions and decisions that have taken place in the UK this week, the risk of no deal has increased exponentially.

In order to conclude a deal by March 2019, the UK and the EU do not need to finalise all the details of their future relationship. The UK and the EU27 require only a political declaration which sets the direction of travel but leaves detailed terms to be negotiated after March.

However, agreement on a solution that avoids a hard border in Northern Ireland cannot be fudged, and is essential to securing an exit deal and transition by Brexit day.

As part of their preparations for the worst, European diplomats signed off on the publication of a report, which was released on Thursday. The document urges member states and all stakeholders to step up preparations for a no-deal scenario. It warns that the UK’s exit from the EU will cause disruption whether or not there is a deal, and notes that there is still no certainty that there will be a ratified agreement in place by Brexit day on March 30, 2019.



The report markedly spells out that in the absence of a withdrawal agreement, there will be no transition period, resulting in a cliff-edge. The consequences of such a scenario would range from border issues and severe impact to transport networks between the UK and the EU to customs controls at borders causing significant delays. And there would be no arrangement in place for the millions of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU.

It also states that any contingency measures would be temporary until necessary long-term adjustments are in place, and would not be able to achieve the same results as an orderly withdrawal, nor would they be able to recreate the current situation where the UK is treated as a member state.

This week’s amendments came after May was able to narrowly scrape through a series of parliamentary votes seen as crucial to the survival of plans ministers agreed to less than a fortnight ago after an all-day meeting at Chequers, and which were subsequently set out in a white paper.

Following the resignations of Brexit secretary David Davis and foreign secretary Boris Johnson, the government was forced to accept changes to May's proposals put forward by hard Brexiteers, including on Northern Ireland’s customs arrangements, in order to keep the prime minister's Brexit blueprint alive.