It could be argued that Seattle’s strongest draft ever was 2010. Or 2012. Or 2011 if we only count defensive players. Those classes were so good it just depends on your favorite player, really. Seattle followed that run with the weakest draft in the Schneider/Carroll era, 2013. Only Luke Wilson emerged as a consistent contributor, with top picks Christine Michael and Jordan Hill vastly underperforming their potential.

As good of a stretch as 2010-2012 was, 2013-2016 was equally disappointing. For the purposes of this discussion, the thing that really sets apart an average draft from exceptional draft are those bonus late-round selections that turn into surprisingly good players. Hitting on two of the first three picks is not what gets a GM their job; one would hope that top-50 choices can be identified with reasonable success. This Schneider has done with the sole exceptions of 2011 and 2013.

2017 has been covered in great and painful detail.

What has made the 2013 to 2016 drafts a disappointment following Schneider’s immediate success was a complete dearth of late-round discoveries during that span. There were a few middling starter-level acquisitions from the 4th rounds (Mark Glowinski and Cassius Marsh), but not much more.

It’s a lot to ask a GM to make their “big board” of 200-whatever players, expecting that all the way down the list they’ve identified athletes who have what it takes to play consistent football at the highest level in the world. But that’s perhaps the biggest single factor that separates the good from the great – and fans want their team’s talent acquisition department to be great.

The New England Patriots have put on quite the ten year show in this area, and it is one part of what has helped them remain on top for so long.

Patriots Day 3 draft picks

Stephen Gostowksi Round 4 2006

Matt Cassel round 7 2007

Matt Slater Round 5 2008 – 7 Pro Bowls

Julian Edelman Round 7 2009

Aaron Hernandez round 4 2010

Marcus Cannon Round 5 2011

James White Round 4 2014

Shaq Mason round 4, 2015

Trey Flowers round 4 2015

Deatrich Wise Round 4 2017 – 4th highest sack total since coming into league

Notice, again, the consistency in hitting big in the fourth round. After that it gets incredibly hard.

Over the last three years, an interesting trend is developing in Seattle. Namely, we still know the names of Day 3 draft picks from each year.

Recent Day 3 Success Stories (in the making)

2017

Chris Carson (7th) - Performed solidly as the Seahawk’s first 1,000 yard rusher since 2014

David Moore (7th) - Impressive deep-threat before cooling off at the end of the season. Currently being discussed as a no-brainer for one of Seattle’s top three receivers

Tedric Thompson (4th)– Wildly impressive in last year’s camp, then suddenly quiet, and now making noise again. If he finds consistency he’s probably the starting safety opposite Bradley McDougald this year.

Play of the day from Seahawks camp: Tedric Thompson ripping the ball away from John Ursua as both players were going to the ground for an interception. Reminiscent of a play Bobby Wagner made at San Francisco two seasons ago. — Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) July 30, 2019

2018

Jacob Martin (6th)– Red hot finish to his rookie season; one of the most efficient pressure rushers in the league.

Michael Dickson (5th) – Pro Bowl his first year

Tre Flowers (5th) – Quick transition from college safety to NFL corner; exceeded expectations and continuing to take first team reps.

Will Dissly (4th)– Obviously showed a lot in limited time. Hopefully his recovery continues to progress as well as it has.

Seahawks Training Camp: The return of Will Dissly https://t.co/8taPuHm15t — NBC Sports Northwest (@NBCSNorthwest) July 26, 2019

2019

This is where Travis Homer comes into play. I’ll admit two months ago I thought he was a long shot to make the team. Now, I think he might be what officially makes JD McKissic a receiver. He’s so fast. Imagine all the excitement over the potential of Prosise, except he’s got the ability to hurt someone else on every play instead of himself.

#Seahawks training camp day 2 observations:



- Geno Smith looks to have a strong advantage over Paxton Lynch

- Travis Homer is very, very fast

- David Moore has made two phenomenal catches right to the sideline

- Will Dissly is an active participant (awesome)

- it’s hot — Jessamyn McIntyre (@JessamynMcIntyr) July 26, 2019

Third string running backs do get an opportunity to make some noise in this offense, especially as Russ saw the fewest rush attempts of his career last season. That pattern seems more likely to continue than revert back to 90+ runs.

Ugo Amadi may get to play some nickel and show some things, he may not.

Phil Haynes may get ample opportunity to impress at guard this year, he may not. In any case he’s projected to be behind D.J. Fluker and Mike Iupati, who have combined to miss 38 of 64 starts over the last two seasons. However, all these three of these players have been in conversation throughout this summer, and now it’s time to see if something will come of it or whether it was just talk.

Building Something That Lasts

If you’re running an NFL team, and you’re giving more than $50 million per year to your two best players, what gets you excited in the morning is a roster full of ball-hungry freak athletes on rookie contracts. I don’t know, maybe you don’t run an NFL team and that’s still what gets you excited in the morning.

But two a year is not enough. At that rate, by the time the first class comes around to extension time, that wouldn’t even field one side of the ball. Somewhere around 40% of NFL starters any given year were taken in the 3rd round or later. It looks like Schneider’s recent success (since 2015) is starting to take shape, as they put forth a higher-than-average rate of players still on their roster. This is known as draft hit rate, and the Hawks have come in at almost 80% since 2015.

A possible starting roster this year could contain Chris Carson, David Moore, Tedric Thompson, Quinton Jefferson (because the D-line is made of glass), Jacob Martin, Michael Dickson, Tre Flowers, and Will Dissly. That’s eight players drafted in the 4th round or later since 2016. If any significant playing time comes from Travis Homer, Ugo Amadi, or Phil Haynes, Seattle’s looking at an absurd amount of help from late-round selections, vastly superior to the league average 26% starters coming in rounds four through seven. Seattle doesn’t have to turn fifth round picks into future hall of famers to experience success. It’s all about balancing salary and winning games.

And maybe, just a little bit, getting lucky with guys that other GMs didn’t pull the trigger on soon enough.