SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. are heading toward a record, pushing off a return to $100-a-barrel oil, and giving drivers a shot at $3-a-gallon gasoline.

“With the overhang of crude supplies building over six weeks, we are unlikely to see $100 oil again very soon,” said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International. “This is good news for refiners and ultimately consumers” as it should depress gasoline prices at the pump.

U.S. weekly crude supplies have jumped nearly 8% since mid-September, according to figures from the Energy Information Administration.

At 383.9 million barrels as of the week ended Oct. 25, they’re less than 14 million barrels below the highest level recorded by the EIA. Supplies were at 397.6 million barrels for the week ended May 24, the EIA’s highest weekly level since the agency began collecting data the data in 1978.

The glut of supplies contributed to an almost 6% October drop in West Texas Intermediate crude prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The December contract CLZ23, -0.90% closed Thursday at $96.38 a barrel.

Prices haven’t been able to close above $100 since Oct. 18 and some analysts don’t see a return to that level anytime soon.

Barring any output problems in Iraq, oil prices may not see $100 again this year, said Richard Hastings, a macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities.

“The market has fully absorbed the Libya problems and now that is offset by U.S. production,” he said. “Recent gains in U.S. oil supplies are a continuation of onshore productivity gains.”

Field production of crude oil rose to about 7.5 million barrels per day in August, EIA data show, up from 6.3 million barrels the same month a year ago.

Pavel Molchanov, senior vice president of equity research at Raymond James, estimates that crude-oil production in 2013 will be at the highest level since 1991, which saw output of 7.4 million barrels per day on an annual basis, according to EIA figures.

“There is no question that rising U.S. production is going to create a less tight oil market over time, putting downward pressure on [oil] prices,” he said, adding that prices are due for a “double-digit correction in 2014.”

Raymond James’ full-year 2014 price forecast is $83 a barrel for WTI crude CLZ23, -0.90% and $95 a barrel for Brent crude UK:LCOZ3.

Good for gas

Expectations for lower prices may not be what oil traders want to hear, but price declines are good news for many.

“We all benefit — from lower gas prices and job creation,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “We will be less impacted by problems in the Middle East and it will make other countries less likely to use oil as a political weapon.”

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Most of that remains to be seen, but declines in gasoline prices are easy to see.

Prices for gasoline have already hit their lowest prices of the year and they’re expected to fall even further by the end of the year, due in large part to ample inventories and falling costs for oil.

On Tuesday, the average national price for regular unleaded stood at $3.278 a gallon — the lowest since late December of 2012, according to AAA. Thursday’s average was $3.279, down nearly 7% from a year ago.

“Abundant supplies and a decrease in Middle Eastern tensions have helped push down crude-oil costs, which makes it less expensive to produce gasoline,” said Michael Green, a spokesman for motoring and leisure travel group AAA. “Some of these savings get passed onto consumers in the form of cheaper gas prices.”

A switch to winter-blend gasoline from summer-blend gasoline, which have higher environmental standards, lower motor gasoline demand and higher supplies of the fuel are among other reasons for the lower prices at the pump, said Green.

U.S. Energy Information Administration

The switch from summer’s blend started in cooler-weather parts of the country on Sept. 15 and continues through the fall based on local schedules, according to Bill Day, a spokesman for Valero Energy Corp. VLO, -0.59% . The winter blend is less expensive than the summer blend and “that has contributed at least somewhat to the drop in gasoline prices,” he said.

So given all that — and the fact that about 70% of the retail gasoline price is tied to the cost of crude oil and prices for crude potentially holding below $100 for now — consumers can expect even lower costs at the pump.

We’re already paying a lot less than then this year’s high of $3.79 per gallon seen on February 27, which was the earliest peak price on record — and AAA expects the national average price to drop to a low of about $3.10 before the year ends.

“Expect a nice holiday bonus in the form of much cheaper gas prices,” said Avery Ash, an AAA spokesman, in a monthly report. “The national average should get tantalizingly close to $3 per gallon, and many consumers will find bargains below that price before the year is over.”