With the regular season now in the books for Minnesota, all attention now turns to bowl placement, with the big question being where Minnesota goes.

AZJ, Burns, and I spent a bunch of time in the press box after the game talking about Gophers bowl situation and as the resident bowl wonk, I figured I'd put together a rundown of my thoughts on the bowl placement, and then I'm happy to take additional questions. Writing this down in Q&A format for...some reason? I dunno, it feels right.

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How do you see the CFP rankings shaking out for the Gophers?

I wanted to cover this first, as so much of what we'll discuss about bowl placement is going to be connected to how things shake out in the CFP rankings. There are a lot of things we could talk about with the rankings, but what really matters for Minnesota is what happens in the range of about rank 7-10.

Ultimately, there's a mess of 2 loss Big Ten and SEC teams that the committee is going to have to sort out there, and how they ultimately decide to place teams is going to have big ripples for the Big Ten bowl placements. I believe that the margins between each of these teams are pretty small, so I'm far from confident that I have this right, but here's how I see that key range of rankings shaking out when Tuesday's rankings show comes out:

8) Alabama

9) Wisconsin

10) Penn State

11) Florida

12) Auburn

13) Minnesota

Again - I'm not super confident in this, and even as I was jotting these down I flipped teams back and forth...so we'll see what happens on Tuesday night. The one that I flipped the most was Wisconsin and Alabama.

Cool, but I'm a Minnesota fan, so just tell me what I should care about during the rankings show on Tuesday.

Alright, alright, as a Gopher fan, you should be on the lookout for two key things.

The first is where the Gophers fall - if they land behind Penn State and Florida, then any there is pretty much no scenario that can play out that gets Minnesota to a NY6 bowl game (the outside chance, I suppose, is if the Rose Bowl says screw the rankings and just takes the Gophers, but I just don't see that happening).

The second thing to watch for is the general placement of Alabama, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Florida.

It's likely that Wisconsin or Penn State will head to the Rose Bowl, and it's possible that the top SEC team in this group could go to the Sugar Bowl (if Georgia can make it into the playoffs alongside LSU).

After the Rose and Sugar Bowls are set, the highest ranked team from the B1G or SEC is going to the Orange Bowl, and then there's a reasonable chance that the next team in the rankings goes to the Cotton Bowl - don't worry, we'll talk about those bowls in a little bit.

So cut to the chase, where is Minnesota going?

Referencing my expected CFP rankings above, I believe a NY6 game is off the table for Minnesota. So the possible destinations Minnesota could wind up at are the Citrus Bowl (Orlando), Outback Bowl (Tampa), Holiday Bowl (San Diego), and Gator Bowl (Jacksonville).

Of those, the two most likely and realistic destinations are the Citrus Bowl and the Outback Bowl, and I believe the Outback Bowl is most likely.

As a recap of many of my past posts, the Outback Bowl is in a bit of a bind because last year it took Iowa. That was the Hawkeyes second appearance in Tampa in 3 seasons. Nearly all of the Big Ten bowl contracts (including the one with the Outback Bowl) stipulate that they have to take 5 unique teams in 6 years, and this happens to be year 6 of the contract. This means the bowl must take a team that's not gone before, and that eliminates Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan from consideration.

The possible teams with the record to go to the Outback Bowl are Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, and Indiana. Ohio State should for sure be in a NY6 game, and Indiana's record of 8-4 means they are really not in consideration. So we're down to Penn State and Minnesota, and currently it looks like Penn State is in position to also go to a NY6 game of some kind. That means that Minnesota would have to be the pick to Tampa, so this is the most likely destination for the Gophers as the conference has to send someone there, and Minnesota might be the only good option to go there.

The second option for Minnesota is the Citrus Bowl, which would become the most likely should Penn State miss out on a NY6 game. If you are wondering why Penn State wouldn't just go to the Citrus Bowl in that case, well, we run into another Big Ten bowl rule. Teams cannot go to the same bowl (other than NY6 games) in back-to-back seasons. Penn State played in the Citrus Bowl last season, so that's not an option this year for the Nittany Lions. Thus, they'd pretty much have to be placed in the Outback Bowl. The Citrus Bowl would then pick between 10-2 Minnesota or 9-3 Iowa, and while it could take Iowa, I think the Gophers would be the likely selection.

Wait, what about Michigan, can't they go to the Citrus Bowl too?

Very astute of you to notice this, fake person I made up to give this article some degree of structure. Yes, Michigan could also be in play for the Citrus Bowl, but I believe their bowl destiny is locked in on the Holiday Bowl.

If you've followed along with my posts about bowl placement, I've never really talked about Minnesota going to the Holiday Bowl, but I did note above that it's a possibility. The reason for this is that I believe Michigan is a lock to go there.

The Wolverines played in Florida bowl games for three straight years, from 2015-17, and then ended last season one state north in the Atlanta-based Peach Bowl. The Big Ten has a stated goal to keep teams from repeating in the same state or region - and Michigan has played in the southeast four straight seasons. Due to this, and the fact that they haven't been to the Holiday Bowl during this contract period, I think there will be a strong mutual desire to have Michigan in San Diego this bowl season. Regardless of what else happens, I just don't see Michigan not being in the Holiday Bowl, I think it's the biggest lock of the Big Ten bowl slate.

Dan, I'm a Minnesota fan, so I expect the absolute worst to happen. You mentioned the Gator Bowl, how do the Gophers get screwed over and end up there?

First of all, you should pay attention to Coach Fleck's press conferences:

"We've restored people's belief in what we can do...let's not go back. Keep that out of our minds."



Fleck gives an emphatic statement that this team is going to be continuing forward, and any mindset that it's same old-same old needs to be forgotten. #Gophers — Dan Owen (@DanOwenMN) December 1, 2019

I think it's worth noting that the Gator Bowl is still a fine destination. A January 2nd bowl game in Florida? Hardly anything to thumb your nose at - but yes, it would be a bit less prestigious than the other options on the table. At this point, I don't see any way Ohio State isn't in a NY6 bowl of some kind, so in order for the Gophers to get bumped down to the Gator Bowl you would have to see Penn State miss out on a NY6 game. If that happens, the Nittany Lions would go to the Outback Bowl, and as I just covered I expect Michigan would fill the Holiday Bowl.

That would leave the Big Ten with Iowa and Minnesota left of its top teams, and the top remaining bowls to fill would be the Citrus Bowl and the Gator Bowl. Iowa cannot go to the Gator Bowl since they've already played there, and that bowl contract stipulates it has to host a different Big Ten team in each of its three games during the contract period. So the conference may look at that and, with a desire to get the most out of it's top teams, send Iowa to the Citrus Bowl and fill the Gator Bowl with Minnesota, rather than dipping further back and send Indiana to the Gator Bowl while relegating the Hawkeyes to the Redbox or Pinstripe Bowls.

Looking back through recent bowl history, there is some precedence to this. In 2016, a 9-3 Nebraska was sent to the Music City Bowl (which is on the same footing as the Gator Bowl in terms of bowl placements), while 8-4 Iowa went to the Outback Bowl and 8-4 Minnesota took the Holiday Bowl. Now it's hard to go back and time and know the exact circumstances. The Big Ten does take feedback from the teams and also considers matchups, and both of those things may have been in play that year. The conference could also consider the fact that the Hawkeyes have a head to head win over Minnesota...it's possible.

If I were put in charge of bowl placements for the conference, I would send Minnesota to the Citrus Bowl in this scenario. There's no question that the Gophers fan base is energized, so I would expect them to travel well. Iowa, on the other hand, was in the Outback Bowl last season (also in Florida) and took part in a game that was the Outback Bowl's worst attended game ever.

At the end of the day, though, if the Gophers end up in Gator Bowl, it's hardly a terrible fate. The Big Ten didn't extend its relationship with the Gator Bowl when the new bowl contracts start next season, so this will be the last opportunity for the Gophers to make a debut in the Gator Bowl for the foreseeable future.

Great, so all I really need is for Penn State to get a NY6 game bid. What do I need to root for?

Penn State getting to a NY6 game seems like the most likely outcome at this time, but there are definitely things that could screw it up.

The Nittany Lions are in play for the Rose Bowl; with Ohio State almost a lock for the playoffs, the Rose Bowl likely comes down to Wisconsin or Penn State. It's unclear what will happen in the CFP rankings if/when Wisconsin loses to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, but it's reasonable to think Penn State could wind up ahead of Wisconsin in those final rankings. If that happens, there's a good chance that Penn State heads out to Pasadena. If the Badgers can play Ohio State close, though, then they may hang on and get the Rose Bowl bid.

To play this out more, let's assume Wisconsin gets the Rose Bowl bid. There are two other NY6 bowls that Penn State could land in - the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl. The Orange Bowl will take the best team from the SEC and Big Ten after the Sugar and Rose Bowl bids are dished out. Looking back to my CFP rankings projection, the order I have of teams that would be in play is Alabama > Penn State > Florida > Auburn. But it's no sure thing that Bama will be ahead of Penn State, so keep an eye on the rankings that release on Tuesday. None of these teams have any further chance to improve their resume, so we can safely assume the relative rankings of these teams that come out Tuesday to be final.

For now, though, I'm going to keep using my rankings to base this discussion off of. Alabama would come first - but they are still in play for the Sugar Bowl. If the SEC places two teams into the playoffs (Georgia and LSU) then the Tide would head off to the Sugar Bowl. Next up in the rankings would be Penn State, so therefore the Nittany Lions would land the Orange Bowl slot. Should Georgia fall out of the playoffs, then Alabama would take the Orange Bowl slot.

Next up, then, is the Cotton Bowl. There's one open slot there, for a team to go and take on the best Group of 5 team, and the spot goes to the highest remaining team in the CFP rankings. After Penn State came out ahead of Florida in last week's CFP rankings, they would seem to be in a good spot to, at minimum, land the Cotton Bowl bid. It's far from a guarantee, though, and we'll need to watch both the Big 12 and Pac-12 championship games to see how it might shake out.

In the Pac-12, if Oregon defeats Utah, Oregon will go to the Rose Bowl and I think it's likely that Utah will wind up in the Cotton Bowl as I don't think they'll drop too far in the CFP rankings. Over in the Big 12, both Baylor and Oklahoma are ranked ahead of Penn State, and you'll need to see the loser of their championship game drop below Penn State in the rankings. I think Baylor is more likely to tumble a bit in the CFP rankings with a loss, so I'd say cheer for Oklahoma in that game.

What about Minnesota to the Rose Bowl? That could still happen, right?

Technically...yes. It's still possible for Minnesota to go to the Rose Bowl. If the the Big Ten champion ends up in the playoffs, then the Rose Bowl has some discretion to make a choice of another Big Ten team. They have indicated that they (and the conference's) general preference is to follow the CFP rankings and just take the next highest ranked team, but that if teams wind up in a cluster that they might choose a lower ranked team. Some Gopher fans are clinging to that hope, knowing that the fact that the Gophers haven't been to the Rose Bowl in more than half a century would be a factor in play in Minnesota's favor over Wisconsin and Penn State.

In reality, though, I do not see this happening. At the end of the day, I don't believe Minnesota's resume is strong enough for Rose Bowl to make that move. When all is said and done, the Gophers only have 1 good win, the Penn State victory, and otherwise Minnesota dominated against bad Big Ten competition and won in shaky fashion against a trio of unimpressive non-conference opponents. Any team can pull off 1 big win (a 4-8 South Carolina beat playoff-contending Georgia), and beyond that the Gophers were outmatched against Wisconsin and lost to an Iowa squad with some clear offensive flaws.

If the Rose Bowl were to make a move to bypass the rankings and take Minnesota over Wisconsin or Penn State (both of whom I assume will be ranked ahead of Minnesota in the final CFP rankings), they'd need to be confident that the Gophers can compete against Oregon or Utah. The worst case scenario for the bowl is to not follow the rankings, then wind up with a one-sided matchup. While Gophers fans will certainly feel confident about their team, I'm doubtful the Rose Bowl selection folks are going to be comfortable making that kind of move.

Okay, one last question. What are your Big Ten bowl projections?

Glad you asked! Let me update the bowl projections that I've been maintaining all season:

Fiesta Bowl (CFP Semifinal) - Ohio State vs. Utah



Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. Oregon



Citrus Bowl - Wisconsin vs. Florida



Outback Bowl - Minnesota vs. Auburn



Holiday Bowl - Michigan vs. Washington



Gator Bowl - Indiana vs. Kentucky



Redbox Bowl - Iowa vs. Arizona State



Pinstripe Bowl - Illinois vs. Wake Forest



Quick Lane Bowl - Michigan State vs. Florida State

The underlying predictions of my projections are as follows:

Utah will defeat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game and earn the 4th slot in the playoffs

Georgia will lose to LSU. I still think Georgia can lose and wind up keeping their 4th playoff spot, but I'm finally making the swap and taking Georgia out of the playoffs.

Wisconsin will lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, and will lose by enough that they drop down the rankings behind Penn State and miss out on the Rose Bowl.

There you have it. If you have any additional questions, feel free to post them below, as I'm sure I missed addressing something.