Greg Sargent and Digby offer their views on Charlie Cook's doomsday prediction for Democrats, based largely on polling showing that Republicans plan to vote with far greater enthusiasm than Democrats. (Whether more of them vote is a different question, since you only get one vote per person, no matter how enthusiastic you may be.)

Digby:

You can't help but wonder if the Democrats have decided that having the votes of "liberals, African-Americans, self-described Democrats, moderates and those living in either the Northeast or West" just aren't worth having so they are going to fight the Republicans for every last one of those John McCain voters. How else to explain the ongoing derision of their rank and file? ("They look like absolute idiots" is the quote that comes to mind.) If going for hard core Republican votes isn't their strategy, then someone might tell the president that for the next four months he might want to knock off his patented "one from column A one from column B" routine and stop making false equivalence between the Democratic base and teabaggers and lavishing praise on Blue Dogs who repeatedly punch hippies and stab him in back.

Sargent:

I tend to fall into the camp that holds that the Dem base's lack of enthusiasm is out of sync with the size and scope of the accomplishments racked up thus far by Obama and Dems. The excitement around Obama's victory was so intense, and the sense of a "big change moment" was so palpable, that people were bound to feel let down despite Obama's clearly historic achievements.

Here's yet another way of looking at it: The good news for Republicans is that their enthusiasm is at a record high, meaning they stand a realistic chance of retaking control of Congress.

The bad news for Republicans is that the prospect of a GOP majority might just be enough to fire up the Democratic base and left-leaning independents.

I actually think all three arguments have some validity and none of them are mutually exclusive. Taken together, they offer up a useful (though not fully comprehensive) guide for Democratic officials planning the fall campaign.

Don't be afraid to repeat the administration's and Congress's accomplishments ad nauseum. It will take time to break through, but eventually, it will.

Empower White House aides who connect well with the base and muzzle those who don't.

Use the looming prospect of a Republican takeover of Congress as a weapon against them. Make sure this election is a choice between GOP and Democratic governance.

Anyone who says with certainty they know how this election will play out is a snake oil salesman. And while Republicans may say they are more enthusiastic than Democrats, you only get one vote no matter how enthusiastic you are. So what counts is whether more of them vote than Democrats. So far this year, that hasn't happened. And there's no guarantee that it will happen in November. But it could happen. And it's important that we not let it.