A couple days ago a Huge Hillary Fan wrote a diary trying to insinuate that Bernie Sanders did not double voter participation. She had 3 election results, all with Bernie on the ballot. When presented with the data from the 1979 election she claimed that although Bernie had more than double the number of participating voters by 1983 it didn’t count because the 1979 election was unopposed.

There was a lot of back and forth about whether it counted or not. Well, after 2 days of talking to the super helpful folks at the Burlington city hall and archives, I am back with the information and I stand by Bernie’s claim. He did double voter participation from the 1979 election. Gordon Paquette ran unopposed and received 5089 votes.

Here is a map of the 6 wards of Burlington from 1967 to 1973:

Here are the election results from every year from 1969 to 1979:

Burlington Mayoral Election 1969 Candidate Party Ward 1 Ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Francis J Cain Democrat 762 616 514 1328 853 964 5037 Lyle M miller Republican 253 321 398 707 419 320 2418 Lyle M Miller Independent 54 99 116 152 108 50 579 Total votes 1069 1036 1028 2187 1380 1334 8034

Candidate Party Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1971 gordon H Paquette Democrat 552 678 580 912 659 480 3861 frank e dion Republican 383 475 386 1269 549 746 3808 gordon H Paquette Independent 89 66 61 158 92 103 569 total 1024 1219 1027 2339 1300 1329 8238

candidate Party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1973 gordon H Paquette Democrat 750 687 657 1441 772 742 5049 gordon H Paquette Independent 136 139 99 304 131 221 1030 Joseph a sullivan Republican 188 191 140 702 296 510 2027 Joseph a sullivan Independent 51 43 36 120 77 74 401 total 1125 1060 1032 2567 1276 1547 850

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1975 gordon H Paquette Democrat 697 496 532 1838 889 741 5193 Darcy Troville Socialist/Independent 233 209 195 352 194 270 1453 total 930 705 727 2190 1083 1011 6646

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 p1 ward 2 P2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1977 gordon H Paquette Democrat 543 328 164 543 1190 616 527 3911 gordon H Paquette Independent 95 40 12 89 236 99 140 711 c. howard porter Republican 271 118 97 197 1072 313 498 2566 c. howard porter Con Cit 63 29 27 68 242 70 80 579 Alfred Safstrom Peo Pty 40 42 18 69 67 82 77 395 Total 1012 557 318 966 2807 1180 1322 8162

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 p1 ward 2 p2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1979 gordon H Paquette Democrat 588 253 173 549 1949 790 787 5089 total 588 253 173 549 1949 790 787 5089

Candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1981 Bernie sanders I 516 616 639 1045 610 609 4035 gordon paquette D 504 358 458 1370 637 686 4013 richard bove T 133 102 171 385 196 104 1091 joseph Mcgrath N 11 11 34 48 19 15 138 total 1164 1089 1302 2848 1462 1414 9279

Candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1983 Bernard sanders Independent 1067 1210 1222 1394 1007 1042 6942 Judith b stephany Democrat 547 387 393 1552 667 540 4087 Jim Gilson Republican 231 190 135 731 384 621 2292 Total 1845 1787 1750 3677 2058 2203 13321

Burlington Mayoral Election 1985 candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Bernard Sanders Independent 982 911 995 1083 958 831 5760 Brian burns Democrat 438 272 312 1083 667 503 3275 Diane Gallagher Independent 122 78 105 519 158 252 1234 William J murray L/Independent 6 9 7 26 12 12 72 richard Sartelle Independent 3 0 10 13 1 7 34 Michael E Hackett N/Independent 3 2 4 4 4 3 20 John F. Tatro Independent 2 3 2 6 0 4 17 total 1556 1272 1435 2734 1800 1612 10412

Candidate Party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington Mayoral Election 1987 Bernard sanders Independent 1106 1140 1050 1547 1041 1017 6901 Paul lafayette Democrat 645 541 578 1999 1040 791 5594 total 1751 1681 1628 3456 2081 1808 12495

candidate Party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total burlington mayoral election 1989 Peter Clavelle Independent 826 799 1011 1515 978 788 5917 nancy chioffi Democrat 546 341 423 1686 982 646 4624 sandra l baird Green 65 64 67 62 50 62 370 michael e hackett TR/Independent 5 12 13 34 18 13 95 total 1442 1216 1514 3297 2028 1509 11008

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington mayoral election 1991 Peter Clavelle PC/Independent 722 681 943 1840 1046 930 6162 Haik J Bedrosian Independent 78 73 89 395 123 107 865 Daniel H Gregory Independent 47 47 69 211 80 68 522 Michael E Hacket Independent 28 40 67 112 67 41 355 total 875 841 1168 2558 1316 1146 7904

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 total Burlington mayoral election of 1993 Peter C Brownwell Republican 479 356 511 2415 981 668 5410 Peter Clavelle Progressive 765 603 721 1129 784 720 4686 donald l prim Independent 7 8 13 51 9 10 98 Paul A cook Independent 2 11 5 18 6 3 45 Edward Bickford Independent 5 6 11 8 5 4 39 Roger R Verville Independent 3 2 1 1 4 5 16 Matthew peter gardy POA/Independent 2 1 1 4 4 2 14 total 1263 987 1263 3626 1793 1412 10308

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 ward 7 total burlington mayoral election of 1995 Peter Clavelle Progressive 768 698 830 645 747 799 568 5055 Peter C. Brownwell Republican 470 229 356 1252 843 695 970 4815 paul lafayette Democrat 153 144 245 315 359 167 410 1793 Michael r brown Independent 1 15 8 2 7 3 6 42 Louis beaudin ACV/Independent 8 4 1 7 6 6 5 37 Paul A Cook PFEEG/Indep 0 1 5 3 0 3 2 14 total 1400 1091 1445 2224 1962 1673 1961 11756

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 ward 7 total burlington mayoral election 1997 Peter Clavelle Progressive 420 261 733 1051 785 481 760 4491 Louie Beaudin OT/Independent 35 18 39 98 83 40 100 413 Michael r brown Independent 12 43 66 97 61 34 85 398 Maja capps WC/Independent 17 31 53 31 28 17 39 216 total 484 353 891 1277 957 572 984 5518

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 ward 7 total burlington mayoral election 1999 Peter clavelle Progressive 701 589 878 919 1042 951 758 5838 kurt wright Republican 282 175 358 1037 626 401 956 3835 eric h brenner Independent 25 35 75 15 25 31 21 227 john pius hogan HTA/Independent 6 4 16 4 0 8 3 41 total 1014 803 1327 1975 1693 1391 1738 9941

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 ward 7 total burlington mayoral election of 2001 Peter clavelle Progressive 365 303 419 633 645 613 448 3426 Kevin J curley Republican 181 133 229 754 367 237 763 2664 Haik Bedrosian Independent 8 13 13 13 15 8 13 83 John Pius hogan Independent 1 6 13 3 5 2 5 35 total 555 455 674 1403 1032 860 1229 6208

candidte party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 ward 7 total burlington mayoral election 2003 Peter Clavelle Prog/Dem 458 298 658 883 915 657 776 4645 Michael r brown Independent 123 82 183 237 183 116 390 1314 total 581 380 841 1120 1098 773 1166 5959

candidate party ward 1 ward 2 ward 3 ward 4 ward 5 ward 6 ward 7 total burlington mayoral election of 2006 bob kiss Progressive 467 456 637 550 676 546 479 3811 linda miller Democrat 306 164 287 676 604 524 546 3107 kevin j curley Republican 154 115 213 757 351 258 763 2611 louie beaudin Independent 5 20 19 22 15 8 30 119 loyal ploof Independent 6 11 14 6 10 7 4 58 total 938 766 1170 2011 1656 1343 1822 9706

candidate party Original First Elimination Second elimination total burlington mayoral election of 2009 bob kiss Progressive 2585 2981(+396) 4313(+1332) 4313 kurt wright Republican 2951 3294(+343) 4061(+767) 4061 Andy Montroll Democrat 2063 2554(+491) 0(-2554) 0 Dan Smith Independent 1306 0(-1306) 0 0 Exhausted N/A 0 606 606 total 8980

In 2009 Burlington instituted instant runoff voting. If only our country would do the same for national and even state elections.

In 2011 Bob Kiss announced he would not run for another term.

Elections for 2012 and 2015 resulted in Miro Weinberger winning as a Democrat. He was endorsed by Peter Clavelle and Bernie Sanders in 2012. 10053 and 7677 total votes were cast in 2012 and 2015 respectively.

Here are the total votes cast in each year from 1969-2015:

Year Winner Party Total Vote Totals For 1969-2015 1969 francis j cain democrat 8034(+0) 1971 Gordon Paquette Democrat 8238(+204) 1973 Gordon Paquette Democrat 8507(+269) 1975 Gordon Paquette Democrat 6646(-1861) 1977 Gordon Paquette Democrat 8162(+1516) 1979 Gordon Paquette Democrat 5089(-3073) 1981 Bernard Sanders Independent 9279(+4190) 1983 Bernard Sanders Independent 13321(+4042) 1985 Bernard Sanders Independent 10412(-2909) 1987 Bernard Sanders Independent 12495(+2083) 1989 Peter clavelle Independent 11008(-1487) 1991 Peter clavelle progressive 7904(-3104) 1993 Peter c brownwell republican 10308(+2404) 1995 Peter clavelle progressive 11756(+1448) 1997 Peter clavelle progressive 5518(-6238) 1999 Peter clavelle progressive 9941(+4423) 2001 Peter clavelle progressive 6208(-3733) 2003 Peter clavelle progressive 5959(-249) 2006 bob kiss progressive 9706(+3747) 2009 bob kiss progressive 8980(-726) 2012 miro weinberger democrat 10053(+1073) 2015 Miro weinberger Democrat 7677(-2376)

candidate party Terms Turnout Average Turnout Burlington Mayors 1969-2015 Francis J Cain Democrat 1 8034 Gordon Paquette 5 7329 Bernard Sanders 4 11377 Peter Clavelle 7 8327 Peter C Brownwell 1 10308 bob kiss 2 9343 miro weinberger 2 8865

In the terms where Bernie Sanders ran for office and those 4 immediately following there was an average voter turnout of:

10811

In the 5 terms of Gordon Paquette there was an average turnout of:

7329

Its interesting to note that Bernard Sanders has only one race where both Republican and a Democrat ran for election and that is the highest turnout race in data. His next 2 highest turnout races lack Republicans. His lowest turnout race, the first, lacked a Republican as well though it had a strong independent. In most cases when a candidate from either major party mounts a serious campaign they have extremely consistent numbers regardless of what Bernie Sanders is doing. In 4 of 6 of Paquette’s races he had ~5050 votes listed as Democrats and in extremely competitive races he tended to drop only 400 of those votes. Democrats have the highest consistent base of the 2 major parties and thus races where they field no candidate tend to drop by almost exactly their number of consistent voters.

Peter Clavelle had similar turnout issues to Sanders, although his progressive base actually dropped over time.

Its notable that in his largest turnout race the Democrats had almost the same number of voters, ~4050, as the race before where Bove took ~1000 Democratic votes from Paquette after losing the Democratic caucus to him. The Republicans came in with a number quite consistent with their average base, yet Bernie Sanders grew his votes by almost 3000 votes. In the race where he faced the strongest independent challenger his numbers dropped by about as many votes as she had. Based on an analysis of the numbers it seems safe to conclude that the Sanders coalition included ~1000 Democrats ~500 Republicans and ~1200 Independents for a total of 2700 of his votes. However the Democrats did not come to his side until the next election. So he must have added 2300 voters to the turnout that election. He then added ~3000 votes, with likely ~1000 from Bove’s Democratic split. Thus we can conclude he added ~2000 voters in his second election and he also inspired the Republicans to get back into the race that year.

His voter wave lasted a brief time after him, perhaps 4 elections under Clavelle. It took until the 2001 election for the Sanders/Progressive coalition to slowly drain away. However it was the lack of Republican or Democratic candidates that resulted in the drop with their voters opting out of the race in the early Clavelle years.

The Republicans mounted one successful campaign to dethrone Clavelle, one wonders whether there was a coalition against him given the number. However he was swiftly reelected the next year as the Democrats fielded a candidate and he had a slight surge in support.

The Sanders/Progressive coalition seemed to draw the majority of its support from wards 1, 2, 3, and 6. Republicans tended to draw the most support in 4, 5, and 6, and the Democrats in 1, 4, and 6.

Sanders consistently drew numbers equaling the total pre-Sanders turnout in wards 1, 2, and 3.

Clavelle appears to have lost 25% of the 1, 2, and 3 voters and in the close elections with Brownwell he also drops in ward 4 quite a bit. He started losing support immediately after his first term and only made up group during the Brownwell elections. Voter turnout in these districts continues to erode until Bob Kiss is elected where it sees a minor surge before falling back down to Paquette levels under Weinberger.

Based on all of this we can conclude that Sanders added a section of new voters sufficient to increase voter turnout about 61.5% in high turnout elections and maintained that coalition for several elections afterwards before it slipped away from Clavelle. He increased total turnout by 2.6x across 2 elections, granted he started counting from an uncontested year. If you average the years that Paquette won elections he still increased turnout by 1.82x. He did drop down afterwards but I think its fair to say his claim is correct. He never said he kept it at 2x after all. I’m sure most people’s opinions will divide neatly along primary lines, though.

Still a whopping turnout multiplier of 1.475x over his 4 elections + Clavelle’s first 4 is quite a miracle. Such a turnout boost nationally would give the Democrats a massive electoral landslide.