So, what´s next?

In my opinion, it is very probable that we will see for crypto a similar evolution than online gambling. What I see is:

Short term

Innovative territories like Gibraltar, Malta, Isle of Man and the like will be the first to regulate crypto. In fact, they are already doing so: Gibraltar will probably be the first, Malta has also made some movements precisely in blockchain gambling, and Isle of Man seems to be very ICO-friendly.

It wasn´t surprising at all when Binance announced they were moving to Malta. These three territories are with no doubt, the leading territories for gambling operators and have also very advanced infrastructures, something that is very demanded by both gaming companies and crypto-projects.

In parallel, other countries will discuss long on crypto, publish and debate regulation projects during months or years and focus mainly on chasing crypto-hodlers while all the industry moves to more crypto-friendly territories.

Medium term

Bigger countries will finally decide to regulate crypto but their laws will be much stricter and tighter than the innovators. And also, taxes. Just compare gambling taxes in territories like Malta or Isle of Man versus taxes in countries like France, Italy, Spain or even UK. Taxes are like 5x.

A movement similar to the “regulatory wave” that gambling saw in late 2000´s and early 2010´s (where major European countries regulated online gambling with very similar models) will happen for crypto. But under this scenario, it is really complicated to move established gambling/crypto companies from Malta or Gibraltar to other territories.

At the same time, some territories will ban crypto and some execs from crypto-firms will be jailed, exactly what happened in USA with the ban on gambling. At one point in the future, we will probably see crypto exchanges in grey or “.com” markets licensed in countries like Gibraltar, Malta and the like, and “.country”.

This, more or less, also happens in gambling where access to “.com” operators is usually permitted, and customers can choose between playing in international operators or in their locally licensed ones, who usually offers a plus in security as it falls under local laws. In some cases, countries that regulate online gambling also (try to) ban access to “.com” operators with limited results (usually a VPN is enough) and the same will happen for crypto exchanges.

Long term

Again, similar to gambling, more and more countries will regulate crypto, an already mature and established industry. The effect will be the same than the one described for the medium term but much later. Same old story.