Food prices worldwide have gone up over the last 8 or 9 months.



Some have tried to blame it on the use of corn for ethanol in the U.S., and by extension, on efforts to curb global warming. This is total bull, and in my opinion, one of the most despicable tactics yet employed by those who deny the reality of global warming. Ethanol-from-corn started well before the sharp increase in food prices, but there is a unique trigger to the price increase which is ridiculously easy to identify. It’s even been in the news. And it’s the one the denialists don’t want you to think about.

In fact it might just be the single thing that denialists most want to conceal.

Let’s take a look at the food price index:

It’s even broken down by the type of food commodity:

This graph might give the impression that much (if not most) of the latest price rise is due to an increase in the price of sugar. But that’s not so, because the food price index isn’t just a simple average of the commodities prices. Sugar is only a small contributor to the food price index, in fact it’s the smallest contributor among all these commodities. The food price index is computed according to:



.

If we want a breakdown of the contribution of each commodity to overall food prices, we should graph their contributions to the food price index. And here they are:

Let’s take a closeup view of the most recent 6 years or so:

Now it’s plain to see. The 2010-2011 rise in food prices was triggered by a rise in cereals prices. It started in July of 2010, and still hasn’t relented. Sure, there are other factors too — and as usually happens, an increase in cereals prices can cause a “ripple effect,” leading to increased prices in other commodities. But the root cause is something that happened to cereals prices in July of 2010.

And what on earth could that be?

“Cereals” includes wheat. What if one of the world’s largest wheat producers had devastating crop losses, reducing their production by a third? What if they were one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters, but production was so reduced that their exports dropped to zero? That’s exactly what happened in Russia. And the trouble started in July of 2010.

Why did the Russian wheat harvest suffer so? Because of the record-breaking heat wave and drought which plagued a massive region, at just the wrong time for Russian agriculture. And one of the contributing factors is: global warming.

That’s the ugly, deadly dangerous secret the denialists don’t want you to think about. That’s why they sank so low as to try to blame inflation of food prices on attempts to fight global warming, when it’s really due to: global warming.

Here’s the much uglier, much more dangerous truth: this is just the beginning. It’s gonna get worse. A lot worse. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

But for the sake of this, and the next few, generations, don’t just be afraid. Get off your ass and do something. Make our politicians get off their asses and do something.