Two children pose for a photo next to the Conservative election bus in the Constituency of Hyndburn | Leon Neal/Getty Images Tories believe momentum is swinging back their way (honestly) Conservative campaign HQ wants to move the conversation back to Brexit and leadership, where they believe they have the edge.

LONDON — They may be wrong, complacent or just out of touch, but among the most senior ranks at Conservative campaign headquarters they believe the U.K. general election is about to get boring again.

After a disastrous 10 days in which the party’s poll lead has collapsed amid a surge in support for Labour and growing nervousness among Tory MPs, internal Conservative campaign analysis suggests the tide may finally have turned back in their favor, according to senior campaign insiders who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity.

Despite the quiet confidence inside the Tory campaign bunker, the party’s internal numbers have convinced senior strategists that the possibility of a 100-seat majority is now out of reach.

The admission reflects the dramatic change in fortunes for the prime minister since the start of the campaign just five weeks ago, when she was recording leads of more than 20 percentage points over Labour, pointing to possible majorities of more than 150.

The Conservative campaign insiders privately admit the inclusion of a controversial policy on how to pay for elderly care — swiftly dubbed a "dementia tax" by opponents — in the party's manifesto, followed by a rapid U-turn, pushed people who were considering voting Tory back into the Labour fold. They admit that those voters are now unlikely to return.

“Everybody has been quite unnerved by the Corbyn momentum ... But it has served a purpose" — Conservative minister

To steady the ship, CCHQ wants to bring the conversation back to where the campaign began and away from the manifesto fiasco. “We are getting back to where we started again — leadership and Brexit,” one senior campaign official told POLITICO on condition of anonymity, rejecting polls suggesting the election was neck-and-neck.

Tory candidate James Cleverly, who was MP for Braintree until parliament was dissolved for the election, said the narrowing in the polls was down to Labour picking up support from smaller parties to its left rather than any significant drop in Conservative support. “They have been very good at sweeping a lot of the voters that were traditionally further to the left of the Labour Party,” he said.

“There are lots of Lib Dem voters who were further to the left of the Labour Party, a lot of Green voters are left of the Labour Party. They are being folded into the Labour Party."

“We would have liked to have a bit of a poll lead throughout the campaign, but we will remind people what we said at the beginning of the campaign, that Corbyn is a credible threat and actually to a large extent this campaign has vindicated it.”

A poll for Ipsos MORI published Friday gave the Conservatives a five-point lead over Labour, while a YouGov poll earlier this week had the lead at just 3 percentage points. A result that close would likely lead to a hung parliament, prompting immediate pressure on the prime minister to resign and the possibility of another election within months.

The YouGov poll though prompted a dismissive response from Jim Messina, Barack Obama's former campaign manager, who was hired by May to help with the Tory campaign. He tweeted Wednesday, "Spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll from YouGov."

Spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll from .@yougov. Hey .@benleet do you want to bet for charity? I'll take the over. — Jim Messina (@Messina2012) May 31, 2017

Tory insiders believe the polls will turn over the coming days, just in time for the election. “Polling is always the lagging indicator," said one Tory campaign official, adding that they have already picked up an increase in support for the Conservatives online as the narrative moves away from party manifestos and back onto Brexit.

Conservative campaign focus groups have also begun to register an uptick in support for the Tories again, the senior officials said. They expect the polls to reflect this over the next three or four days, as the approaching election on June 8 focusses minds.

The Tory campaign is still officially being run by Stephen Gilbert, the long-serving Conservative official who was David Cameron’s political secretary in No. 10 and who decides where the campaign directs its financial resources. However, Lynton Crosby and his business partner Mark Textor are now “tactically in charge,” the CCHQ insider told POLITICO. The pair are determined to return the election to the twin themes of leadership and Brexit over the closing six days.

Labour Party insiders are dismissive of Conservative claims that the race is about to turn in their favor.

One senior official close to Corbyn said: “We’ve seen no evidence of that. Things are clearly moving in our direction. We have the momentum.”

“If they [the Tories] are making standard assumptions about what is going to happen in the final week I think they’re being complacent, especially when you think of what’s happened already,” said the Labour aide, who is close to Corbyn. “We don’t have any problems talking about Brexit and leadership, but the election has always been about more than that.”

A Conservative minister, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the narrowing in the polls would help motivate the Tory party base.

“Everybody has been quite unnerved by the Corbyn momentum,” the minister said. “But it has served a purpose. One thing I’m hearing more and more now is ‘my god, we can’t have him.’ The complacency factor has gone. Yes, the manifesto has cost us, but it feels like it’s taken us from a potential historic landslide to decent majority territory.”