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Labour has stormed back into the lead in Wales, reversing two recent poll findings that showed the Conservatives significantly ahead.

The new YouGov poll for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Cymru Wales shows Labour have surged forward while the Tories are in reverse.

Plaid and the Lib Dems have seen small hits to their support while Ukip and the smaller parties are both marginally up.

The first two polls of this general election campaign had showed clear Conservative leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough.

This is how the parties performed in the poll Cardiff University/ITV/YouGov This is how the parties' support has changed in the last two weeks Cardiff University/ITV/YouGov

Professor Roger Scully, of the Wales Governance Centre, said: “The most important change from the previous poll is clearly the resurgence in Labour support.

"This is broadly in line with the Britain-wide polls, which have generally been showing a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour in recent days.

“But the extent of the Labour rise, and Conservative fall, are rather greater in Wales, and are sufficient to put Labour back into a significant lead in Wales.

“Meanwhile, as was seen in our previous poll, the smaller parties continue to be squeezed: Plaid Cymru are down two more points, and the Liberal Democrats a further one, on our last poll two weeks ago.”

This is how it would translate into seats in Wales Cardiff University/ITV/YouGov

A projection of the new figures using a uniform national swing would see Labour winning back Gower from the Conservatives.

The seat was won by the Conservatives’ Byron Davies with a majority of just 27 in 2015.

No other seats would change hands, leaving Labour with 26 seats (up one from 2015), the Conservatives 10 seats (down 1), Plaid Cymru 3 (no change) and Liberal Democrat 1 (no change).

That's a huge change on this projection for Wales from the first poll of the campaign Cardiff University/ITV/YouGov

Prof Scully said: “Our two previous polls had suggested the Conservatives to be on course to win a whole slew of seats from Labour. Things now look very different on these latest figures.

"As with both our previous polls, Plaid and the Liberal Democrats are apparently on course to hold the seats they currently have, but to make no gains beyond these.

"So what can we make of these latest findings?

"While Labour have been making some progress in the Britain-wide polls, it is not on the scale of what we see here in Wales, where the party are fully 14 points higher than they were in the first poll of the campaign.

This is the latest UK poll of polls Financial Times

“We must always allow for the possibility that some polls produce ‘outlier’ estimates of the support for particular parties.

“But assuming that the findings in our new Welsh poll are correct, they may have been at least partially influenced by the timing of the poll – the fieldwork for which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the death of Rhodri Morgan.

“It is possible that there may have been some short-term ‘sympathy’ boost for Labour.

“Our new poll was also conducted in the aftermath of the ITV Welsh leaders’ debate, while much of the fieldwork also occurred in the period after Thursday’s Britain-wide five-party televised debate.

“Leanne Wood represented Plaid Cymru in these two events, while the Liberal Democrats and Ukip were also present in both.

“That the smaller parties continue to make no ground in the campaign will be very disappointing for them, and particularly in the aftermath of the television debates.

“Thus far, at least, these debates and the public platform they have provided do not appear to have given any sort of ‘bounce’ to the smaller parties.”

(Image: Cardiff University)

Prof Scully said that while short-term factors may account for some of the outcomes in the latest poll, it does appear that after the extraordinary success of the Conservative Party at the beginning of the election campaign, they are losing some ground to Labour.

He said: “At least for the moment, Labour seem to be winning the campaign, if not the election as a whole.

“That is particularly true in Wales. The recent local elections showed the resilience of the Welsh Labour party. A party does not dominate the politics of a nation for nearly a century, as Labour have done in

Wales, simply by accident.

“Challenged strongly by the Conservatives in this election, Labour seem to be fighting back strongly.

“There are more than two weeks of campaigning to go, and all to play for. And Labour are still very much in the game.”

The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1,025 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from May 18-21.