This is part one of our three part series previewing the race for the 2016 NL East crown between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals. We will be releasing a part every few days in the lead up to pitchers and catchers reporting, and this is part one: The Infield.

Part 2 (the outfield) is now posted and can be found here.

Catcher

Mets:

Travis d’Arnaud’s combination of being an elite hitting catcher but one who is also injury-prone makes him difficult to judge. He only played in 67 regular season games in 2015 but his batting average of .267 in those games would have been 4th highest among NL catchers, and both his OPS of .825 and OPS+ of 128 would have ranked 2nd among the same group. While he is an elite offensive catcher, d’Arnaud struggles behind the plate and is widely considered to be a below average defensive catcher.

If d’Arnaud is once again out for an extended period of time, the Mets will be able to turn to young catcher Kevin Plawecki as a backup. Although he struggled at the plate last year with .219 AVG and .576 OPS, he showed flashes of offensive talent, he should be expected to improve considering this will be his age 25 season. Baseball Reference projects him to hit .242 with a .669 OPS, respectable numbers for a catcher, especially a back up. Additionally, Plawecki would be a defensive improvement over d’Arnaud, as he is considered an elite receiver and pitch framer.

Nats:

Ever since the 2011 season when he finished 4th in Rookie of the Year voting, Wilson Ramos has teased Nats fans with good offensive production mixed with a frustrating injuries. Last year was his first year with over 88 games played since that 2011 campaign. Unfortunately, his previously potent offensive skills were nowhere to be found, and he hit only .229 with a .616 OPS, both by far the lowest of his career. This could be dismissed as a one-year trend, but his 2014 OPS of .698 was also his first below .700 in the bigs, suggesting a multi-year downward trend. Ramos, though, is still a fairly young player, only a year older than d’Arnaud and three years older than Plawecki, and a bounce-back year before free agency is not inconceivable. That said, everyone with an interest in the Nats should be wary of injury issues, as the Nats do not have a ready replacement in their system should he go down for a long period of time.

Jose Lobaton, the supposed backup, hit below .200 last year, while his defensive WAR dipped into the negatives for the first time since 2012 with Tampa Bay, which reflects his inability to throw out base stealers. It is slightly deflated as it doesn’t include his noted pitch framing abilities and he does keep the ball in front of him slightly better than Ramos, who most Nats fans would agree did not deserve his consideration as a Gold Glove candidate. That defensive advantage though, does not make up for Lobaton’s putrid offense, which would leave a hole in the Nats lineup if Ramos goes down for an extended period of time.

Overview:

The Mets seem to have the advantage at catcher. Although both teams’ primary options have injury concerns, a healthy d’Arnaud seems poised to have the better season. Also, the Mets are more prepared to react to a serious injury, as long as Plawecki meets Baseball Reference’s generally conservative projections, while the Nats would not be as ready to deal with a Ramos injury, barring a late acquisition of a backup catcher.

First Base

Mets:

Ever since the Mets gave up on Ike Davis a week into the 2014 season and traded him to the Pirates, Lucas Duda has emerged as one of MLB’s top ten first basemen. In those two seasons, he has hit .249 with 57 home runs and an .834 OPS (134 OPS+) that is buoyed by his ability to draw walks. On top of this he has been fairly durable, playing at least 135 games in his two seasons as a starter. But despite these impressive overall numbers, Duda is an extremely inconsistent hitter, especially regarding power. From May 30th to July 8th, he hit one home run in 35 games. Not too long after this, from July 26th to August 2nd, he hit nine homers in eight games. However, directly after that stretch, from August 3rd to September 15th, he hit no homers in nineteen games. While this is obviously not ideal, his massive value to the Mets’ offense was apparent. In games in which he hit a home run, the Mets were 14-5.

Nats:

Ryan Zimmerman is a lot of people’s favorite National, and for good reason. From when he became a regular in the Nationals’ lineup in 2006 until 2013, Zimmerman played in at least 142 games six out of eight times, providing consistency and excellence at both third base and in the batting order, hitting .284 with an OPS of .827 (120 OPS+). However, in the past two seasons he has played an average of only 78 games due to hamstring and foot injuries. On top of that, in 2015, he hit only .249 with a .773 OPS (105 OPS+). These numbers, combined with the fact that Zimmerman is on the wrong side of 30, don’t suggest a return to his previous form. However, the plantar fasciitis issue that he dealt with last year is known to decrease production even when it can be played through. Even with the injury, Zimmerman managed 16 home runs and 73 RBI (as meaningless as that stat is) in 95 games, suggesting a return to production is possible. A healthy season could also lead to an improvement in the field, as he showed flashes of excellence in his first season at first base last year.

Should Zimmerman go down again, Clint Robinson would be the likely injury replacement, a role he played to perfection in 2015. However, the Nats should be wary of a player who was a 29-year old rookie last year. Robinson’s defense also leaves much to be desired.

Overview:

The Mets win this round as well, though their advantage here is more precarious. Duda has had more recent success, and could be poised to build on that success in 2016. If Zimmerman were to play a full season, though, the advantage might be flipped, as he has not posted a WAR below 3.7 while playing over 106 games since his 2006 rookie season.

Second Base:

Mets:

One of the main improvements Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson made this offseason was acquiring Neil Walker from the Pirates in exchange for back-end starter Jon Niese. In his six seasons with Pittsburgh, Walker was an incredibly consistent batter, hitting a combined .273 while putting up a mark below .269 only once, in 2013, when he hit .251. He also has considerable power for a middle infielder, averaging 16 home runs per season and never hitting fewer than twelve. These power numbers have helped him maintain a OPS in the high .700s, putting his career OPS+ at 114. Walker is slightly below average defensively, as he has been worth -10 defensive runs saved (DRS) at second base in 802 career games.

A long-term injury seems to be unlikely for Walker, who has played at least 129 games every year since his rookie season. If he was to go down though, 21 year-old prospect Dilson Herrera would be the likely replacement. Herrera has had cups of coffee with New York in both of the past two seasons, and the plan is for him to be the starting second baseman beginning in 2017 once Walker reaches free agency, but the Mets will call him up sooner if necessary. Herrera has an OPS of .690 in 169 plate appearances with the big league club and was ranked 46 in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list last March (he is not eligible this year due to accrued MLB service time).

Nats:

Despite his historic performance in the NLDS and NLCS, it would be unrealistic to expect Daniel Murphy to repeat those performances for the Nationals in 2016. However, he still promises to be an improvement over Yunel Escobar and certainly over Danny Espinosa, who seemed to be in line for the position after Escobar was traded. The more likely possibility is that he will perform similarly to how he did in his six-plus seasons with the Mets: he’ll hit around .285 with around 35 doubles and 10 to 15 home runs. This is what he has averaged in his six full seasons, rarely varying much from those numbers. However, in the past three seasons his power numbers have gone up, averaging 12 home runs a year since 2013, with his slugging percentage rising to a career high .449 last season. Such numbers give the Nats a rare middle of the order threat from second base. Although he is a talented hitter, some of his value is damaged by his well below average defensive play at second base. In only 507 career games at second base, Murphy is worth -42 DRS, and he cost the Mets game 5 of the World Series with a defensive blunder.

Murphy has stayed fairly healthy over his major league career, but if he is injured for a significant period of time in 2016, the Nationals can call on one of two prospects, Trea Turner or Wilmer Difo, both of whom spent time with the Nationals in 2015. Both will likely end up playing a role for the Nationals in 2016, most likely at second base and shortstop. There is a large possibility that Turner becomes the starting shortstop at some point during the year, but in that case they still have Difo. A short-term injury would likely result in Stephen Drew, who the Nats picked up in free agency, filling in for Murphy. The 32 year old has hit below .201 the last two year but he brings reasonable power and decent defense.

Overview:

Second base is reasonably even as Murphy and Walker are similar players. Murphy will hit for more average and strike out less, while Walker will hit for more home run power and walk more. Murphy probably has the better bat overall, but his defensive play is so poor that their overall contributions even out. Both teams have top prospects to fall back on should an unlikely injury occur.

Shortstop:

Mets:

The Mets two likely options at shortstop in 2015 are two very similar players. Asdrubal Cabrera, who they signed this offseason, and Wilmer Flores both have an above-average bat and a below-average glove for shortstop, with Flores possessing the slightly better bat and Cabrera the slightly better glove. Cabrera will likely start the year as the starter, and can probably be expected to hit within the .245 to .260 range, with around fifteen home runs. A downside in his offense that Nats fans will likely remember is that he hasn’t walked very much since his All-Star 2012 campaign. From 2007 to 2012 he got on base at a .342 clip. Since then, despite hitting for at least acceptable averages, he has gotten on base at a .307 clip, which below average. On the bright side, however, he got it up to .315 last year, which is at least acceptable. It is worth noting that Flores has had even more problems getting on base in his young career, but he will still only be 24 heading into the 2016 season and could improve his plate discipline.

Nats:

Danny Espinosa is also a player, who at shortstop brings a slightly below average on base ability but above-average home run pop. He is a similar offensive player to Wilmer Flores but with more strikeouts, less average, and instead of being 24 going into 2016, he will be 29. However, his defense is clearly superior, as he could be a borderline Gold Glove candidate if he started the full year now that Andrelton Simmons is in the American League. Additionally his offensive ability is far greater from the right side, meaning he could be a dangerous weapon in a platoon or bench role.

Luckily for the Nats, they will not have to rely on Espinosa in a large role, as the starting job will likely be passed on to top-prospect Trea Turner around May 30, at which point the Nats will get an extra year of control before he enters free agency due to service clock rules. Turner, once he wins the job, will be able to provide the Nats with a sparkplug at the top of the lineup with Dee Gordon-like speed, above-average contact and a great batter’s eye, to go along with his good defense at shortstop.

Overview:

The Nats win their first category here, despite Espinosa being at best comparable offensively to Flores and Cabrera. The Nats will surely be better defensively, no matter who manning the position, which is crucial at shortstop especially. Should Turner win the job, he has the potential to make this a huge advantage for the Nats. If he lives up to .322/.384/.454 minor league slash line, he could give the Nats a crucial sparkplug at the top of the order.

Third Base:

Mets:

Although David Wright has had injury issues in the past, he has never entered a season with more uncertainty than he will in 2016. This is because in 2015, he was diagnosed with spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spinal column, which is a chronic condition and will affect how many games he is able to play for the rest of his career. In his limited sample size of games in 2015, he proved that although he does not have the power he once did, he is still a talented hitter, hitting .289 with an OPS+ of 128. Nats fans should be familiar with Wright’s all-around prowess as he has been the Mets starter since the team was in Montreal. On top of this, the Mets are in a good situation to give him rest when necessary. The backup shortstop, whether it is Cabrera or Flores can spot him. If he does succumb to another long-term injury the Mets can call up Dilson Herrera, who can play third as well as second, as was discussed in the second base section. All three options are better than Eric Campbell, the sub-.200 hitter who they were forced to call upon in reserve of Wright last year.

Nats:

2015 was a lost season for Anthony Rendon, as he played in only 80 games and when “healthy” looked nothing like the Anthony Rendon of 2014 who placed 5th in MVP voting. But despite his diminished production, he should be expected to return to his 2014 form in 2016. He is still a fairly young player, and the Nats managed his supposedly minor spring training quite poorly resulting in a season of injuries. Though he fell to the Nats in the 2011 draft due to injuries at the college level, last year’s string of issues were his first since entering the bigs in 2013 and at 25, a general decline in skill is unlikely. If he has another 2015-like season, we might need to rethink this, but right now we should be expecting to see many more seasons of high-quality production from Rendon in the future. Another forgotten aspect of his failed 2015 was that he was forced to play out of position at second base and will likely be more comfortable back at his natural third.

Overview:

This category also goes to the Nats, though it’s less certain than the advantage at short. Both players are injury threats but Wright’s is a more chronic issue and therefore poses more of a concern going forward. Rendon, meanwhile, is just one season removed from being one of the game’s premier third basemen and a return to form seems more likely for him.

Infield Bench:

Mets:

C Kevin Plawecki

IF Wilmer Flores

SS Ruben Tejada

The Mets infield depth looks to be in good shape going into the 2016 season, as it has multiple players who could conceivably win a starting job on another pretty good Major League team, and a good quality bench option. Plawecki and Flores both provide excellent depth, both for injury risks-Wright and d’Arnaud-and in the case of Flores, a good utility guy. Tejada is there as a defensive replacement for the below-average Flores and Cabrera.

Nats:

C Jose Lobaton

1B/OF Tyler Moore

1B/OF Clint Robinson

IF Stephen Drew

Although the Nationals’ bench will look a lot better when Trea Turner is called up, likely putting Danny Espinosa on the bench in place of Stephen Drew or Tyler Moore, the opening day bench only has one good infield bat, and he can only play first base. Clint Robinson erupted in 2015, transforming from a career minor leaguer into a solid hitter, hitting eleven home runs in 2015. However, as stated earlier you have to be especially wary of a sophomore slump with older players. But despite this fact, Robinson passed the eye test last year more than many players in similar situations do, so expect him to have some more success this year. The main area where the Nats could be better among the reserves is at catcher, which is unfortunately the most important bench position as backup catchers typically start once or twice a month.

Overview:

The Mets win the bench, as their options include players such as Flores and Plawecki, who are young players with upside potential. They also have the significant advantage at catcher.

Overall, the two teams appear to be even in the infield. They have similar strengths and weaknesses, with the Nats main advantage at shortstop and the Mets having the upper hand at both starting and backup catcher. Much will depend on health, an area in which the Nats fans had far too much experience with last campaign. The emergence of options such as Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo will help soften such blows this year in a way that last year’s team could not.

That’s it for the infield preview, check back in a few days for the outfield, and then we will finish off the preview with the pitchers.

All stats are via Baseball Reference, unless stated otherwise.