by Cian Fahey

(Ed. Note: This article is about the New England Patriots defense. The offensive discussion that starts the article is about how the Patriots will adapt with their backup quarterback, not Tom Brady. Therefore, it is not the right place to discuss Deflategate or the legal issues of Brady's suspension. The proper place to do that is here. Please don't make us have to go through constantly deleting comments from this discussion thread. Thanks. -- Aaron Schatz)

Tom Brady's absence will be unavoidable for New England in Week 1. The only thing that could push Brady further into the spotlight would be hiding him from it completely. Without Brady, the Patriots have one goal: survival. Without Brady, the Patriots are forced to turn to Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback. Although Garoppolo will theoretically be replacing the Patriots' Hall of Fame starter, he is unlikely to be the decisive factor in their survival.

Winning with Garoppolo is going to entail winning in spite of Garoppolo. The third-year quarterback has played sparsely throughout his career, and it has been ugly when he has. He has a slow process, a weak arm, and erratic accuracy. The combination of Garoppolo's traits suggests that he will handicap what the offense can do. The Patriots have enough pieces on the offensive side to craft an attack that will work to Garoppolo's strengths, but those strengths appear to be more like less-severe weaknesses than actual positive traits.

For the Patriots to survive without Brady, like they did with Matt Cassel in 2008, they will need everything around the quarterback to align almost perfectly. In 2008, the Patriots faced one of the easiest schedules in the league, 28th by our numbers. That schedule allowed the Patriots to consistently win games despite being consistently inconsistent. The Patriots were 30th in DVOA variance in 2008, meaning that 29 teams were more consistent from week to week. Defensively, the Patriots were a slightly above-average unit by DVOA, but they did enjoy the No. 6 special teams unit, the only team ranked in the top 14 of total DVOA in 2008 which also finished better then tenth in special teams. Cassel put up numbers that didn't cripple the passing game, allowing an offense that featured Randy Moss in his prime, Wes Welker in his prime, and one of the better offensive lines in the league to finish 15th in passing DVOA. Moss was particularly valuable because he was the type of receiver who didn't require precision, timing, or intelligence to be productive. Cassel could literally throw the ball up for Moss to go and get it. The Patriots ran a simplified scheme with a stacked arsenal of weapons to offset their quarterback.

That offense mostly relied on the running game though. Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Laurence Maroney, Wes Welker, Heath Evans, and Cassel himself all combined for 2,278 rushing yards, sixth in the league. The running game was even better by DVOA, as it ranked fourth behind only the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants.

Bill Belichick is a master of adapting to his teams' strengths to mask their weaknesses. His teams have always done that better than anyone else. The Garoppolo version of his roster has the potential to match what the 2008 version did. Where that team had Moss and Welker, this one has Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, and Julian Edelman. Where that team had a big back like Morris and a receiving back like Faulk, this team has LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. Belichick will alter the identity of his team from season to season, but he has rarely entered a campaign without a few stars to rely on and the depth to be versatile in his weekly approaches.

The 2016 team has a schedule in the first four weeks that is favorable, much like the schedule of the 2008 team over that whole season. After traveling to Arizona to face the Cardinals in Week 1, a game few expect the Patriots to win, they will return to Foxboro for three straight home games against the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, and Buffalo Bills. A 2-2 or 3-1 record isn't unrealistic, even accepting that Week 1 is almost a guaranteed loss.

The front seven of the defense will really need to come through in Brady's absence. While there is debate over whether the Brady suspension was self-inflicted or harshly delivered, there's no doubting that the departure of Chandler Jones was Belichick's own choice. Jones had been a key player for the Patriots on the defensive line. The former first-round pick had 12.5 sacks last year and 36 for his career. Compounding Jones' departure was a recent triceps injury to Rob Ninkovich. Ninkovich could be ready by Week 1, but will likely miss at least a game or two in September, and will be limited when he does play. With that weakness at defensive end, and without a great offense to offset any drop-off in quality from the defense, the Patriots will need big performances from some key players -- most notably Jabaal Sheard and Jamie Collins. Sheard and Collins are going to be crucial when it comes to creating pressure.

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Sheard's play is more likely to directly lead to sacks because he will be the team's primary pass-rusher. Collins plays off the ball as a linebacker, whereas Sheard is a full-time defensive end. Sheard was the team's third defensive end last season. He played 558 snaps, while Jones and Ninkovich both eclipsed 850. On those snaps he primarily acted as a pass-rusher, playing both inside and outside depending on the package. The Patriots should still be able to move Sheard around the formation because Chris Long and Trey Flowers project to be at least capable contributors. Not all defensive linemen can move around the formation. Those with narrower skill sets typically prefer to stay in one spot and rely on their strengths to expose the blockers they face. Because Sheard doesn't have one dominant trait, he is more versatile in how he can attack opponents.



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On those 558 snaps, Sheard had eight sacks and four forced fumbles. The play in the above GIF isn't one of those sacks. Brian Hoyer is able to throw the ball away while in Sheard's grasp. That play is a good example of Sheard's skill set though. He lines up inside of the right tackle and outside of the right guard. Once the play begins, he is isolated against the guard, a blocker who he can beat with his quickness. Sheard makes one hard step that forces the guard to commit. Once he gets that commitment, Sheard attempts a swim move. He tries to knock the guard sideways with his right hand before sweeping his left hand over his shoulder to gain leverage.

Although Sheard's hands make little impact on the guard, his quickness has allowed him to gain good positioning. From here a lighter defensive end would be more susceptible to the guard's recovering strength. Sheard is helped by the bodies next to him, but he still has to show off resilience and strength against the contact to continue moving forward into the pocket. Sheard's barreling style isn't always graceful, but it's effective in creating pressure. According to Sports Info Solutions charting, Sheard had 16 hurries to go along with his sack total in 2015.

The one concern about Sheard as a pass-rusher is his ability to handle extra attention or beat the better pass blockers in the league. Without one truly dominant trait, that will always be a challenge. He did have two sacks against the Dallas Cowboys last year, but one came against Ronald Leary, a guard who is now a backup, and the other came on a stunt.

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That stunt was performed with Collins. Inside linebackers aren't typically sack-getters, but Collins' athleticism makes him dangerous when used that way. He had 7.5 sacks last year (including the playoffs) and has 11.5 over the past two seasons. In obvious passing situations, the Patriots will regularly press Collins up against the line of scrimmage like in the above GIF. With his athleticism and body control, he is able to threaten to blitz and drop into coverage from this spot without sacrificing anything in either direction. Collins is a valuable stunter because his size and speed allow him to entertain the attention of one linemen before attacking another. In this play he draws and drags the right guard with him before pummeling the right tackle. His hit on the right tackle proves to be inconsequential, but that's only because the guard followed him. Had the guard let Collins go to pick up Sheard, Collins would have had a free route to the quarterback after knocking the right tackle down.

Sheard and Collins' execution together on this play is excellent. Stunts will be useful for the Patriots because they don't have a plethora of pass-rushers who can win quickly in one-on-one situations. They take longer to develop, so they are easier for the quarterback to neutralize, but they are still very difficult for the offensive line to pick up when executed in concert.

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When Collins independently rushes from this position he does so intelligently. He isn't just throwing his body at the blockers in front of him in an attempt to bludgeon his way to the quarterback. In the above GIF, he hesitates for a split-second to allow the running back to clear his route to the quarterback before using his acceleration to close on Marcus Mariota in the pocket. It was a subtle action but one that reflects Collins' awareness and the comfort his own athleticism affords him. He doesn't need to rush to the quarterback because he knows he can close on the ball faster than anyone else on the field.

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Rushing inside linebackers normally means blitzing or disguising your rush so that someone is going free to the quarterback. You don't typically expect your inside linebackers to beat a lineman to get a sack. In the above GIF, Collins is immediately confronted by the Jaguars' left guard. From this position he would be excused for just lowering his head to try and bull rush his opponent. Collins instead stands his opponent up and uses a stutter step to get him off balance. With his explosiveness and balance, Collins makes whipping around his outside shoulder look easy. This play actually resulted in a first down for the Jaguars even though Collins officially sacked Blake Bortles -- when he stripped the ball from the quarterback, it was picked up past the line of scrimmage by Toby Gerhart. (On an unrelated note, that play probably sums up the 2015 Jaguars offense.)

Collins' athleticism will be key for Belichick if he wants to disguise his pass rush. When you don't have four pass-rushers who you can be certain will consistently get pressure, you need to get more creative with your play calling. That doesn't mean you have to send five or more rushers, but you can do what Bob Sutton in Kansas City excels at, which is threatening to blitz by aligning defenders in different spots. You can still just rush four from those alignments while stressing the offense's pass protection mentally rather than numerically. Collins is hugely valuable in those situations because he can line up anywhere and rush from that spot effectively. He can also cover ground quickly to maintain the versatility of the defense in coverage even when it isn't aligned in a traditional formation.

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It's not just that Collins is athletic. His coverage skills are outstanding. He can trail running backs out of the backfield, cover tight ends over the middle of the field, and shift out onto a slot receiver if required. When he lines up in a particular spot, the offense can't project what the defense is going to do based on his alignment.

We got a glimpse of Collins' coverage skills in last week's preseason game against the New Orleans Saints. In the above GIF, Collins is aligned over the slot receiver to the right. He is tight to the offensive line but on the wider side of the field. It's unclear what coverage the Patriots are playing; the lack of All-22 tape for preseason games makes it a projection based on this angle and zoom. Collins appears to be responsible for an underneath zone on the left side of the field. Considering it's Brandin Cooks who is playing in the slot, it's very unlikely that he was playing man on this play. Collins is exceptional, but that would still be a mismatch of epic proportions.



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As soon as Cooks releases past his inside shoulder, Collins' eyes are trained on the quarterback. He knows he has a middle linebacker inside so he can afford to give Cooks some space without panicking. As the quarterback, Garrett Grayson, stares down his target outside, Collins re-positions himself so that his hips are ready to turn and run towards the sideline. Ultimately the linebacker doesn't need to run, but he does need to put himself in position to catch the ball when it is tipped into the air.

This is a play that would generally be labelled as instinctual. "Instincts" are a vague term at linebacker. When the term is used it's mostly referring to a player's ability to diagnose the possibilities based on what he knew before the snap and what is happening in front of him as the play develops. It's mental processing. Collins' mental processing is faster than most who play his position. That allows him to be closer to proactive than reactive, something every defender hopes to be.

Collins has an opportunity to announce himself during Brady's suspension. He is already a highly regarded player, but Luke Kuechly remains the standard bearer across the league. Kuechly and Collins share many traits, but Kuechly has more signature moments in the NFL. A few signature moments for Collins during the first four weeks of the season could be the difference between 1-3 and 3-1.