A new analysis from Kenosha County’s Division of Health estimates that the county’s COVID-19 peak will hit in early June, with 2,480 people here expected to be infected on that date.

The projection model used by the Division of Health suggests that the Safer at Home order has had a big impact in lowering the number of infections, estimating that, without the order which as been in place since March 25, the total number of people who contracted the virus in Kenosha County would have climbed to 34,000 on June 3. If the Safer at Home order had ended April 24, the estimated number of cases on that date would have been 7,140.

Jen Freiheit, director of the Division of Health, said the model shows that social distancing is working and that the extension of the Safer at Home order will sharply reduce the reach of the virus.

“We know coronavirus has brought painful disruption and distress for residents. However, these numbers tell us that what we’re doing is working,” Freiheit said in a formal statement. “We know social distancing is tough and comes with incredible sacrifices. But steps we’re all taking to maintain social distancing could save the lives of people we know and people who are important to us.”

Wisconsin has seen a surge in new cases this week, with a record 311 new cases reported Saturday — the third record date this week — bringing the statewide total to 5,687 cases and 266 deaths.

In Kenosha County, there have been 338 cases reported and seven deaths. The county has the fourth-highest number of cases in the state behind Milwaukee, Brown and Dane counties.

The biggest jump in new cases in Wisconsin recently has come outside of hard-hit Milwaukee County, with Brown County seeing the biggest increase as cases clustered among employees of a meat processing plant in Green Bay, continuing to climb. Brown County — which had just 27 cases 20 days ago — now has 720.

That record increase in cases came the day after about 1,500 people in Madison protested the extension of the Safer at Home order. Gov. Tony Evers extended the order through May 26. The extension has turned into a partisan fight, with Republican legislative leaders filing a lawsuit to block the extension.

Freiheit said the projection model released by the county Saturday was created by epidemiologists using a program that takes into account a number of factors including population, current number of infections, infection rates, hospitalization rates, average length of illness and others.

That model estimates that the infection will peak here on June 3, with 2,480 new cases and a total of 28,060 cases, with an estimated 496 people hospitalized, 149 of them in intensive care, by the peak. Based on that model, hospitals would be able to manage the number of people in need of care.

“We hope what happens proves us wrong, but this is the best data we have to go on right now,” Freiheit said.

She said the model is a moving target, and that what actually happens will depend on whether people continue to practice social distancing.

“If we have a big protest in Kenosha like they had in Madison yesterday where people are not masked, the numbers could change,” she said.