Protesters gather across the Chicago River from Trump Tower to rally against the repeal of the Affordable Care Act on March 24. | AP Photo Poll: Voters resist pre-existing condition opt-out

When it comes to House Republicans’ plans to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, there's one thing voters in both parties can agree on: They oppose weakening federal protections for those with pre-existing medical conditions.

A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows resistance to the most controversial provision of the new measure, called the American Health Care Act. Half of all voters oppose allowing states to decide whether to opt out of requiring health insurance companies to cover Americans with pre-existing conditions. It's a key offering from GOP House leadership to conservatives wary that the party’s previous Obamacare replacement bill didn’t go far enough in unwinding the law.


Only 38 percent of voters surveyed support allowing states to opt out of these protections, a figure that underscores the struggle House Republicans and President Donald Trump are having in corralling votes from GOP members who represent districts that lean toward Democrats or are evenly divided.

Despite the sharp partisan divide over the bill — with some centrist Republicans joining the entire Democratic conference in opposition — there is little difference by party in the poll on state exemptions for pre-existing conditions. More voters in both parties oppose those exemptions than support them.

"Fifty-two percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans oppose allowing states to opt out of requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions," said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult's co-founder and chief research officer. "In this polarized political climate, this is one issue where Democrats and Republicans largely agree."

In general, more voters favor federal standards for insurance than allowing states to set their own parameters for health care, the poll shows. Forty-six percent say the federal government should set a national standard of health coverage that outlines the minimum benefits all health insurance plans must provide, while 38 percent think states should be able to set their own standards. Sixteen percent are undecided on the question.

A majority of Democratic voters, 59 percent, think there should be a federal standard, along with 34 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of independents. By contrast, 51 percent of Republicans, 27 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of independents think states should be able to set their own standards.

House Republicans have struggled to wrangle 216 votes — a majority of current members — to support their measure to repeal and replace provisions of the Affordable Care Act. A number of members have expressed opposition to — or reservations about — the bill, with many of those in moderate districts citing the opt-out allowances for pre-existing conditions.

Overall, the poll shows support for the GOP’s efforts. Forty-two percent of voters approve of the proposal to repeal and replace Obamacare, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows. Only 37 percent oppose the proposal, and 20 percent are undecided. (Other polls — which, unlike the POLITICO/Morning Consult survey, describe the bill as a Republican effort — have showed greater opposition to the proposal.)

Asked which party they trust more to handle health care, 42 percent of voters say they trust Democrats in Congress, while 37 percent trust Republicans.

House leaders have pushed for a vote on the measure this week, but voters surveyed want Congress to hold off until the Congressional Budget Office has time to estimate the reconfigured bill’s impact. Told the CBO is “a nonpartisan federal agency that estimates how much a bill would cost the government,” 58 percent want Congress to wait for the office to score the bill, while only 16 percent say Congress doesn’t have to wait for the CBO.

After health care, the poll also points to possible headwinds for Trump’s other big legislative initiative: his initial proposal to overhaul the individual and corporate tax laws. The poll tested nine elements of the one-page Trump plan; for eight of the nine, more voters said they should be in the bill than said they should not. The most popular elements? Increasing tax benefits for child-care costs (67 percent say it should be in the eventual bill), cutting the tax rate for small business from the individual rate to 15 percent (65 percent) and doubling the standard deduction for individuals (63 percent).

The exception: cutting the corporate tax rate to 15 percent. Voters were evenly divided on the element: Thirty-seven percent want it in the bill, and 38 percent do not.

"President Trump's tax plan polls well, both overall and in terms of its individual components," Dropp said. "One area of concern for the administration is that the least popular part of the blueprint is reducing the corporate tax rate to 15 percent."

The deficit also looms as a potential stumbling block: Forty-six percent of voters say they would support a tax reform bill only if it didn’t increase the federal deficit, compared with 28 percent who say they would support a deficit-increasing tax bill, “as long as [it] achieved certain tax reform goals.” More than a quarter, 26 percent, are undecided. Vice President Mike Pence said this week that the new tax system could lead to deficit increases in the short term, but the Trump administration believes economic growth would lead to increased government revenues.

Voters remain divided on Trump's overall job performance: Forty-eight percent approve of the job Trump is doing, and 46 percent disapprove.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted April 27-30, surveying 1,998 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2pDh4hP | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2pu25IE