owned for photo-op purposes by the New York Times columnist David Brooks, was having himself a peaceable Christmas time. The Young Fogies Club had been largely empty since the Unfortunate Events of November 6, as all the old drunks at the bar kept referring to the election, so Moral Hazard pretty much had the run of the place. He watched them put up the Christmas tree in the clubroom and the garlands along the mantlepiece and banisters leading to the private rooms. Occasionally, he wandered out through the pantry door and down the block to 57th Street, where there was a brass band playing Christmas carols and where he could smell the delicious aroma of roasting chestnuts. Then, he'd hustle back to the pantry and wait for Jose, the sous-chef, to slip him whatever the old drunks at the bar had left over when they got too drunk to finish dinner and passed out. It was, thought Moral Hazard, a wonderful life.

Gradually, though, he noticed that the clubroom had started to fill up again of a late afternoon. The conversation rose once again to a barely tolerable pitch, and young Douthat, the club boy, had to keep hustling cigars and brandy around to the various luxurious armchairs. Moral Hazard sighed and wandered back to the pantry. He'd been hoping that the quiet would have lasted at least through the holidays, that there would have been an ideas festival or some other diversion that would have kept the lot of them away from the place at least until after the first of the year or, at least, that most of them would have been so depressed by the Unfortunate Events that they'd have stayed at home, nursing their wounds, and booing that turncoat Jacob Marley for coming back from the dead to strike a blow against free markets. Moral Hazard licked his balls in deep contemplation and saw, out of the corner of his eye, that Jose was reading that morning'sTimes. He watched as Jose's grip on the newspaper tightened until his knuckles were whiter than the newspaper itself. Then Jose got up calmly, and spit in a bowl of soup, which he then sent out into the clubroom with young Douthat. He winked at Moral Hazard, who dozed off and dreamed of being a beloved farm dog in Victorian England, romping and playing in the fields outside a school as the Scrooge family carriage rattled by, young Ebenezer going home at last because Father's heart had softened. Yeah, dreamed Moral Hazard, that'd be cool...

Sometimes you have to walk through the desert to get to the Promised Land. That's the way it is for Republicans right now. The Republicans are stuck in a miserable position at the end of 2012, but, if they handle things right, they can make 2013 an excellent year — both for their revival prospects and for the country.

As a matter of fact, and not to be pedantic, because that's Mr. Brooks's job, but all Biblical precedent says that you always have to walk through the desert to get to the Promised Land. Moses didn't take a train. Not only that, but it usually takes 40 years. Write when you get work.

First, they have to acknowledge how badly things are stacked against them. Polls show that large majorities of Americans are inclined to blame Republicans if the country goes off the "fiscal cliff." The business community, which needs a deal to boost confidence, will turn against them. The national security types and the defense contractors, who hate the prospect of sequestration, will turn against them.

First, most Americans are inclined to blame them because it's true. Second, bullshit. Third, double bullshit. The idea that "the business community" — by which Brooks means the organized business community, and not the nice lady at your local Chamber of Commerce bake sale — and the defense industry (!) will "turn against" the Republicans under any circumstances is the funniest thing since the Romney campaign. Remember, this is a column which purports to offer hard-headed political advice to one of our major parties. Things have not begun well.

Moreover a budget stalemate on these terms will confirm every bad Republican stereotype. Republicans will be raising middle-class taxes in order to serve the rich — shafting Sam's Club to benefit the country club. If Republicans do this, they might as well get Mitt Romney's "47 percent" comments printed on T-shirts and wear them for the rest of their lives.

Whaddya say we lock the barn? Hey, wait. Where's the damn horse?

So Republicans have to realize that they are going to cave on tax rates. The only question is what they get in return. What they should demand is this: That the year 2013 will be spent putting together a pro-growth tax and entitlement reform package that will put this country on a sound financial footing through 2040.

And unicorns. And pie. No, by all means, continue. It's not like we haven't been hearing this bullpucky for 30 years.

This is a big political concession, but it's not much of an economic one. President Obama needs rate increases to show the liberals he has won a "victory," but the fact is that raising revenue by raising rates is not that much worse for the economy than raising revenue by closing loopholes, which Republicans have already conceded. In return, Republicans should also ask for some medium-size entitlement cuts as part of the fiscal cliff down payment. These could fit within the framework Speaker John Boehner sketched out Monday afternoon: chaining Social Security cost-of-living increases to price inflation and increasing the Medicare Part B premium to 35 percent of costs.

The snotty quotes around "victory" aside, why on earth does the Machiavelli of Cleveland Park think the president would accept this nonsense, especially since, as Brooks has noted right from the start, the Republicans have their balls in a vice at the moment? I'm beginning to think that, as hard-headed political advice, this leaves quite a bit to be desired.

But the big demand would be this: That on March 15, 2013, both parties would introduce leader-endorsed tax and entitlement reform bills in Congress that would bring the debt down to 60 percent of G.D.P. by 2024 and 40 percent by 2037, as scored by the Congressional Budget Office. Those bills would work their way through the normal legislative process, as the Constitution intended. If a Grand Bargain is not reached by Dec. 15, 2013, then there would be automatic defense and entitlement cuts and automatic tax increases.

And a pony. And a flying car. We'll get right around to that, as soon as every Democratic politician back to Andy Jackson stops laughing their asses off. Oh, and, in case you can't hear the laughter in your vast spaces for entertaining, we can "fix" entitlements without impoverishing the old and the sick, and without phony deals dependent on a longterm deficit "crisis" that doesn't even exist.

Both parties say they are earnest about fundamental tax and entitlement reform. This deal would force them to think beyond the 10-year budget window and put credible plans on the table to address the long-term budget problems while there is still time. No more waiting for the other guy to go public with something serious. The ensuing debate would force voters to face the elemental truth — that they can only have a government as big as they are willing to pay for. It would force elected officials to find a long-term pro-growth solution as big as Simpson-Bowles.

And one that would touch as lightly as possible the folks in Cleveland Park, in their vast spaces for entertaining.Starve granny now. Your grandchildren will thank you for it.

Republicans could say to the country: Hey, we don't like raising tax rates. But we understand that when a nation is running a $16 trillion debt that is exploding year by year, everybody has to be willing to make compromises and sacrifices. We understand that the big thing holding the country back is that the political system doesn't function. We want to tackle big things right now.

If you're following all this at home, and are unfortunately out of good whiskey, let's see where the column has traveled so far. America thinks the Republican suck because, in many ways, they do, especially when it comes to obstructionism in the Congress. So the solution is to propose unpopular policies that the country already has rejected, and ones that the president and the Democrats are guaranteed to reject out of hand. Then, you go to the country that already hates those policies and already thinks you suck, and are obstructionist, and say, "Hey, the system doesn't work and we're ready to move!" As far as hard-headed political advice goes, I'll stick with my Magic 8-Ball, thanks.

The year 2013 would then be spent on natural Republican turf (tax and entitlement reform) instead of natural Democratic turf (expanding government programs). Democrats would have to submit a long-term vision for the country that either reduced entitlement benefits or raised middle-class taxes, violating Obama's campaign pledge. Republicans would have to face their own myths and evasions, and become a true reform and modernization party. The 2012 concession on tax rates would be overshadowed by the 2013 debate on the fiscal future. The world would see that America is tackling its problem in a way that Europe isn't. Political power in each party would shift from the doctrinaire extremists to the practical dealmakers. Besides, the inevitable package would please Republicans. The House would pass a conservative bill. The Senate would pass a center-left bill. The compromise between the two would be center-right. It's pointless to cut a short-term deal if entitlement programs are still structured to bankrupt our children. Republicans and Democrats could make 2013 the year of the truly Grand Bargain.

Profit!

Mystery solved. David Brooks is the Underpants Gnome.

Charles P. Pierce Charles P Pierce is the author of four books, most recently Idiot America, and has been a working journalist since 1976.

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