Heidi M Przybyla

USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Republican lawmakers in the eye of a gathering storm over President Trump’s Russia ties are surveying the potential for political damage and, at least for now, making no new attempts to distance themselves from the president.

Vulnerable Republicans like Rep. Barbara Comstock of Virginia and Darrell Issa of California are among a handful of House Republicans who’ve said they support the appointment of a special commission or prosecutor to investigate Russian interference in the U.S. election and potential collusion with the Trump campaign. Others include Walter Jones of North Carolina, Erik Paulsen of Minnesota and Justin Amash of Michigan.

Even so, Jones was the only Republican to support a procedural vote on Wednesday to actually help clear the way for an independent commission to investigate the Russia issue. Democrats forced the vote following a New York Times story that Trump had pressured former FBI director James Comey to pull back his Russia investigation. Republicans have already voted six times to block consideration of an outside probe, leading House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California to accuse them of “stonewalling.”

Other Republicans in swing districts are avoiding the issue altogether, as their Democratic challengers fire off statements demanding they speak up.

“Allegations that President Trump attempted to force Director Comey to end his investigation into [former national security adviser] General Flynn are gravely serious and indicate yet another attack on our democracy,” said Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat running for the seat currently held by Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey. “His silence is unacceptable,” she said.

The offices of Frelinghuysen and Comstock did not respond to a request for comment.

Does Trump help or hurt?

Comstock and dozens of other potentially vulnerable Republicans are trying to forecast the lesser of two potentially damaging alternatives, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter at the University of Virginia.

“They’re in a really tough spot because, on the one hand, there’s this bad stuff coming out on Trump that makes his numbers worse and hurts Republicans; but on the other hand, if they do act against him they may be hurt too” due to anger among his supporters, said Kondik. They are the same members already under fire in their home districts over an unpopular GOP health care plan.

Even some Democratic leaders say they understand the political calculus their colleagues are making.

“The heart of the issue is 80% of Republicans still support Trump. I’m assuming my colleagues in the House and Senate read the same numbers and realize that parting with him or challenging him is risky politically at this point. The Republican base is still loyal,” Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the Senate’s second-ranking Democrat, told USA TODAY. That’s even as polls show independents are moving away from Trump.

Democrats say an independent commission, similar to the one appointed to study the Sept. 11 terror attacks, is needed as opposed to leaving the work to existing congressional committees with insufficient staff and resources. Republicans led by House Speaker Paul Ryan say they want to get to the bottom of the “facts” in the case, while insisting the current committee structure is appropriate and accusing Democrats of injecting politics into the debate.

The politics of a commission — and its potential ramifications for the GOP — are clear. Additional revelations about Trump’s ties to Russia or his efforts to obstruct an FBI investigation into them would further drag down Trump’s already historically low approval ratings at this point in his presidency. According to the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, just 39% of Americans approve of his performance. Fifty-four percent disapprove.

That, in turn, could compromise all Republicans seeking reelection in 2018. The tension in the Capitol is palpable. One of the most vulnerable Republicans, Issa, reportedly gave the middle finger on Tuesday night to a Politico reporter, which he later denied.

Republican leaders on Wednesday carried on with normal business, holding a news conference on their priorities on tax reform. “Now is the time to gather all the pertinent information,” said Ryan. “We can’t deal with speculation and innuendo and there’s clearly a lot of politics being played.”

Supporting ongoing investigations

That left many vulnerable Republicans following Ryan’s lead in simply demanding more information through existing investigations. “Director Comey should testify publicly before Congress as soon as possible,” tweeted Rep. Leonard Lance, who represents a swing district in New Jersey.

Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey took to Facebook with a similar message.

“They need Trump to improve,” said Kondik.

The real risk could come further down the road.

The same outside Democratic groups that mobilized around health care, resulting in a 17% approval rating for a Republican plan to replace Obamacare, are now organizing on the Russia issue. For instance, on Wednesday a coalition of more than 90 groups including veterans, faith and social justice organizations sent a letter to House and Senate leaders demanding an independent, bipartisan commission.

“It is absolutely crucial, for the integrity of the Republic and the very Constitution that every elected official swore to uphold, that we begin truly independent investigations into Russia’s influence on the election, and possible collusion with the Trump team,” said Will Fischer, Iraq War Veteran and Director of Government Relations for VoteVets.

Further, Democrats appear prepared to withhold cooperating on major legislation until Republicans agree to an independent investigation, with many reciting the phrase: “Love of country ahead of party.” And if that agenda stalls, which is now highly likely, even Republicans acknowledge the consequences.

“We’re going to keep doing our jobs,” said Ryan. “And that’s what we’ll be judged on in 2018. Did we make people’s lives better. Did we solve problems, did we fix problems people are confronting in their daily lives?”

Meantime Democrats insist that, behind the scenes, Republicans are prepared to make a break with the president, particularly if Comey presents his memos to Congress.

“The Republicans have to make a political calculation along the way, when is it safe enough to say what they have been saying privately, in a public way?" Durbin said. "They’re watching it carefully. There will come a moment when they make stark assessments about retaining their majority and how risky it is sticking with Trump.”

“They have to make a calculation and I’ve been here long enough in the House and Senate to know, it gets to be a pretty cold-blooded calculation if they see the bottom falling out,” Durbin said.

“There is a tipping point,” he said.

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