Updated 9:48 p.m. | Ahead of Thursday night’s “body-slamming” incident, most bets were on Republican nominee Greg Gianforte, who’s led by single digits in recent public and private polling, winning Montana’s at-large House seat on Thursday.

But that’d still be a dramatic shift from President Donald Trump’s 20-point victory in the state last fall.

“It’s going to be close, but we’ll see who shows up at the polls,” Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester said earlier this week.

Republicans are thankful colleges are out for the summer. But they have to hope their base turns out on the Thursday before Memorial Day to support a previously unsuccessful statewide candidate who started this race with high negatives.

Thursday’s news drew some unflattering headlines. Gianforte was accused of assaulting a reporter at a campaign event in Bozeman, sparking strong criticism on the eve of the special election.