Welcome to another Monday and another sneak peek into some of the VIP Insider content! Long, long, loooooong break we had there with NBA All-Star Eternity, but we are back in the swing of things with player content and some strategy articles in the hopper. Keep checking in for future postings, and as always get in the VIP Insider Slack Chat, which is where you find Keith helping advice most often during the week.

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Click here to find out how to register for an NBA Insiders VIP Plan and Get Keith’s Picks and Projections Monday – Saturday the rest of the season for slates containing 5 or more games.



****Reminder….All picks can change leading up to 7 pm ET as we get more news opening up****

After glancing at the Morning Briefing, I hope you have some targets picked out that appear to be in successful fantasy producing spots. The slate isn’t too terribly intimidating tonight at 7 games. DET @ CLE starts us off at 6 pm EST and the hammer is the PHX @LAC game tipping at 930 pm EST.

Let’s roll out the position picks for each position, along with some bonus picks at the end. These are picks Keith likes for a variety of reasons. They are not necessarily the “top option on the board,” “chalk options,” “highest scoring,” “GPP only,” or whatever other moniker you want to assign. These are Keith’s favorite options when combining all of these factors….

The graphic you are looking at is a rolling 30-day snapshot indicating average performance above/below expected points along with a percentage of times said player has exceeded projections. The blue line indicates fluctuations in salary over the same 30-day time frame. The bar graph shows how far above/below a particular date resulted vs expected production.

POINT GUARD – KYLE LOWRY ($8800 FD)

Obviously, Stephen Curry is the top option on the board. However, Kyle Lowry offers very solid minutes averaging 38.74 min/gm over his last 15. In his last 4 games at this price point ($8800), he has averaged 41.6 FD pts. He brings 50 pt upside to the table and draws a solid matchup against the Knicks. His 15 gm slash line is 21.8 pts / 4.2 rebounds / 6.1 assists.

SHOOTING GUARD – MONTA ELLIS ($6300 FD)

This one has some moving pieces that should allow you access to the DFS mind of Keith. Monta is our SG because George Hill is questionable to play tonight and CJ Miles was downgraded to doubtful. As a result, Ellis should slide to the PG spot. This opens up a significant usage bump to Ellis. In games without Hill, Monta sees a usage spike from 23.5 up to 27.5. Ellis’ peripherals are in play most games, however, his stats with no Hill suggest he scores more actual points. And, in 2 games vs the Heat, Ellis has 40+ FD pts/gm…..with Hill in the LU. This is a good spot. 15 gm slash line…..16.7 / 3.7 / 4.2.

SMALL FORWARD – CARMELO ANTHONY ($9300)

Don’t be intimidated by the apparent rise in salary when only looking at the blue line above. It’s not even $1000 in salary. I say that because I was fooled at first. I like catching guys at the bottom, but here is what Keith likes. Melo is the top option on the board at SF a lot of nights. This one is no exception. 15 gm slash line of 21 / 8.5 / 5. This line is well-rounded enough it gives us confidence. Legit upper 50 pt upside to go with this solid floor gives us an average of 39+ FD pts/gm over the last 15, and that’s with a 16 pt game and a 24 pt game in there. Melo also plays better at home and draws a plus defensive matchup tonight.

POWER FORWARD – MIRZA TELETOVIC ($4100)

Our boy Mirza is just priced WAY TOO LOW for his increased role since the break. The minutes are there (avg 31.6), the usage is there (low 20s since break), and the matchup is there (only Myles Turner and Lavoy Allen are better). Since Markief was traded, Teletovic has been given the opportunity. 15 gm slash line is irrelevant do to role change. 2 gm slash since break 19.5 / 6 / 2.5 for a 2 gm FD pt average of 30.

CENTER – KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS ($9000)

This is a strict matchup play. We in the DFS community have been targeting the stink out of the BOS front-court with success all year. Enter Karl-Anthony Towns! Sure, a rising price tag, but 50 pt upside and what should be a solid floor. Don’t overthink this one. Keith said to me, and I quote, “We have been targeting the BOS front-court like a Rob Ryan defense, and you can never go wrong targeting a Rob Ryan D.” 15 gm slash 21.3 / 12 / 2.3 with a consistent couple of blocks tossed in there, too.

Those are your starting 5. Now, let’s look at your bonus picks!

*STUD OF THE NIGHT – STEPHEN CURRY

Stephen Curry mans the throne tonight as your stud. Legit 75 pt upside and in the high-total game of the slate. I don’t think I need to say much else about him being a bonafide stud pick.

*BRASS BALLS FADE OF THE NIGHT – LeBRON JAMES

King James is the only other player qualified to be your stud, however we are going to fade him. The reason he’s your fade is because if you are paying over 10 k for a player tonight, it should be on Curry for the higher ceiling.

*CAVEAT – This stud/fade play revolves entirely around the status of Kyrie Irving. If Irving fails to suit up, LeBron easily becomes the stud of the night. Curry becomes the fade because roster construction becomes tougher with two 10 k+ guys in there tonight. Keith advises the money saved by fading one 10 k player is much more advantageous when used to upgrade several other spots.

VALUE OF THE NIGHT – PJ TUCKER

Keith hates going back to the same well so often, but this is just too obvious. Tucker has the minutes and usage on top of a suppressed price for his production, especially now with Morris out of the way in Phoenix. Until a better opportunity arises, Tucker is one of, if not THE best value on a given slate.

GPP OF THE NIGHT – ZACH LaVINE

Zach could go low-owned tonight going against the BOS back-court, making him a great contrarian option. But, for his price, minutes, and upside, he becomes a very strong GPP play when combined with the possibility of the low ownership. Legit 40 pt upside for $4900? I don’t need to teach you how to multiply for you to figure out the upside is through the roof for that price tag.

As always, Keith will be available in the Slack VIP Channel to update you on injury news, and how to pivot if need be….make sure to join in the conversation. He’s always open to answering questions, but if you are going to ask if you should play “Player X” over “Player Y” make sure you check the rankings on the cheat sheets before asking unless news has come out that could possibly change the situation. Thank you!

Cheat Sheets are condensed….remember, there will be players that are not on this sheet that go off. The goal here is to not overload you with a lot of combinations. Obviously, with 14 games tonight, it’s going to be bigger, but these are the plays I feel are the best for their price. Sure, I can put in 15 PG’s and 10 PF’s. And then say, “the winning lineup was on the Sheet” but that doesn’t help us. I’m giving you options at every price point, so you can build every type of lineup. I feel the last two months of the season, we will have better success by choosing from a smaller pool. LET’S MAKE THAT MONEY!!!

You can view the Cheat sheet on Google Sheet’s here, or download an Excel spreadsheet, or PDF version below.

NBA Cheat Sheet

NBA Cheat Sheet DK PDF

NBA Cheat Sheet FD PDF

GOOD LUCK TONIGHT!