Western Sydney Wanderers’ were on the losing end of a memorable comeback last week, which was just another collapse for the team in red and black as Perth Glory turned a 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 victory. The Wanderers manager, Markus Babbel’s rant on the refereeing quality, caught most of the media’s space following the match, deflecting attention from another disappointing loss — which might just have been his goal in the first place.

It’s been an underwhelming season to say the least for the loyal Red and Black Bloc, the team’s official fan base, as their team are near the bottom of the table at 8th with only 9 points to show as we reach the mid-point of the A-League season. Already 10 points away from the top 6, it seems like their season is already written off.

But there’s reason to be hopeful because the statistics, courtesy of Wyscout, and their performances suggest that WSW have been incredibly unfortunate this season and that their luck will turn around soon enough.

A glossary of all the statistical terms will have an * next to them and a definition will be provided at the end of the post.

Expected goals (xG*)

WSW haven’t won a game since they defeated the hapless Central Coast Mariners 6 rounds ago, and they’ve earned only 1 point in the matches since. But the performances since have told a different story, and it’s reflected in the xG of the games.

The graph below shows the xG result compared to the actual result of their fixtures.

They’ve been unlucky on both sides of the pitch. The combined xG conceded for the Wanderers adds up to 22.23, but they have conceded 27 goals. This tells us that Wanderers have been slightly unfortunate to concede from shots that shouldn’t be going in, although that’s not to say they are a strong defensive team.

They have an xG goal difference of -0.72, while their actual goal difference is -10. This is a massive difference, almost a goal extra conceded a match. In a low-scoring sport like soccer, that one goal can change the outcome of the game.

On the attacking side, WSW have scored 17 where their xG is the second highest in the league at 21.65. Once again, they find themselves with the short end of the stick. The numbers indicate that the Wanderer’s are one of the best attacking teams in the league, even if their defence don’t meet those standards.

If the Wanderers won as many points as they would have based off their xG they would be sitting on a rosy 19 points, more than double what they currently have. They’d also be well in the top 6 mix, tied with points with Adelaide United.

The reality is much more different – but in the face of despair it’s important to note that WSW really do deserve to be higher on the table they are and that if they keep performing the way they are, then the results will pick up.

Chance creation and attacking threats

The Wanderers are arguably the most dangerous team when it comes to attacking and in creating chances for their forwards, which includes recent acquisition Kwame Yeboah — who has already been a handful in his 2 matches so far — and the Spaniard Oriol Riera.

After all the plaudits that Alexander Baumjohann has received since joining the Wanderers, it would be reasonable to expect that he’s creating chances on a plate for his team.

In fact, it’s actually the 23 year old winger Bruce Kamau who has provided the most key passes* for his team, and the league, with 15 at 1.26 a game. The Kenyan-Australian’s directness and ability to dribble past his man — he has 55 successful dribbles so far this season — has clearly allowed him to get into good positions to create chances for his team.

However Baumjohann’s quality can indeed be quantified with the numbers, and it’s evident in the smart passes* he makes per game. He is by far the best at using his passes to take opposition defenders out of the game with 48 smart passes, an overwhelming 19 more than the next highest, Wellington Phoenix’s own Sarpreet Singh.

The Wanderers also have the most touches in the box out of any team with 299, comfortably surpassing the 222.1 average in the league. The next move for Babbel then, will be to make his team more efficient with the ball in the box so they can find the net with so much time in dangerous areas.

Individual errors/ uncontrollable variables

There are plenty of numbers and graphs that could show that WSW have really rotten luck, but we often see it clearly ourselves too.

The Wanderer’s goalkeeper Vedran Janjetović has twice come far off his line to have a disastrous consequence for his team. Once conceding to allow Wellington Phoenix back into a game they should’ve put to bed, and the one that will hurt the fans more, his red card in the Sydney derby where he put his hand on the ball well out of the box.

Babbel’s criticism of the referees is also not without it’s merit. Although this isn’t advocating that referees should get the abuse they do, the quality of their decisions does look to be quite poor, with many contentious and sometimes clearly wrong calls being made.

However, these kinds of things will soon stop — unless the Wanderers are truly cursed — and perhaps they’ll even have a few of these contentious decisions or individual errors going their way in the second half of the season.

The statistics and the eyes both tell us that WSW don’t deserve to be where they are. If the Wanderers continue to perform as they have so far, they will surely have a much more productive time come the end of the season. The top 6 is still a possibility, especially as they’ve proved they can compete with the best teams in the league, even if the results don’t show it.

Follow me on Twitter @ShababHossain13

Glossary — As defined by Wyscout

Expected goals (xG) – Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

Key passes – It’s a really important pass, cross, which creates a clear situation and opportunity for goal, but the player misses it. This is a pass, which creates a real chance for scoring a goal, a clear opportunity for his teammate. It’s important to show that the player, who made the pass, created a clear goal situation. Most of the times after a Key Pass there has to be a shot or head shot and Opportunity for the other player.

Smart passes – It is for a significative pass or a smart pass in general. Something more than a simple pass, not so easy to be done. There has to be some idea in the pass, something creative, when the player is cutting the lines and winning some advantage for his teammates with this pass, leading them into a good position to attack. The pass should be between 2-3 opposition players.