Voter expectations of next week’s federal budget are extremely low, with only 10% of the Guardian Essential poll sample believing next week’s economic statement from the Turnbull government will be good or very good for them, and 30% fearing it will be bad.

As well as revealing low personal expectations, the new poll reveals only 12% of the sample believed the budget would be good or very good for working people, 11% good for people on lower incomes, 14% for families, 10% for older Australians and 11% for younger Australians.

By contrast, 43% of the sample of 1,801 voters said they believed the 9 May budget would be good for business, and 54% thought it would be good for people on high incomes.

The opinion survey comes as the Turnbull government is preparing the ground for next week’s budget by telegraphing some of the nasties in advance.

The government confirmed on Monday night it would cut funding for higher education by $2.8bn, increase course fees and lower the income level at which students begin repaying their debts.

The government has also been foreshadowing further changes to the welfare system, including penalising people who fail to turn up to interviews or appointments by stripping their benefits.

On the positive side of the ledger, the government has been emphasising “good debt” to fund a big infrastructure spend, with likely funding of $1bn for the inland rail project and new urban infrastructure, including an airport train for Melbourne; and a reversal of the freeze on the Medicare rebate.

Scott Morrison on Monday argued that boosting Medicare was important during a sustained period of low wages growth.

“I know because wages growth has been so modest – that’s a generous way to describe it – that people are even more reliant on services such as Medicare than they have been before,” the treasurer told reporters in Canberra.

The new Guardian Essential poll shows a majority of voters want the government to increase spending on healthcare (62%) and education (54%). There is not an obvious groundswell of public support for increased spending on roads and highways (38% want increased spending, 44% want to keep spending the same).

Increasing investment in public transport is a more popular concept (47% of the sample want increased spending, 39% support keeping spending the same).

With the government signalling for some months measures in the budget to improve housing affordability, 44% of the sample favoured increased investment to tackle the problem and 37% thought spending should be kept the same.

Cutting spending on foreign aid was the most popular of a list of potential cuts. That idea registered 50% support, while 32% favoured cutting assistance to businesses and 24% favoured cuts to the military/defence.

Morrison indicated on Monday foreign aid wasn’t in the government’s sights in 2017. The treasurer said the aid program was now focused on not-for-profit organisations in places such as Papua New Guinea.

“That’s where we put most of our aid, into places like that – and we all know that the dire straits countries like the PNG are in – they’re our nearest neighbours and that also goes to the stability of our region, and so we have some broader regional responsibilities as the most prosperous economy in this part of the world,” he said.

With the budget set to update key economic forecasts, voters are also divided about the health of the Australian economy, although sentiment has improved since the question was last asked in December 2016.

Thirty per cent thought the state of the economy was good (up 7% from December). 29% thought it was bad (down 7%). Coalition voters were more likely to think the economy was going well than Labor, Green and other/independent voters.

Voters were also asked in this week’s survey whether they thought the economy was heading in the right direction. Twenty-nine per cent thought yes (up 3% from December), and 41% thought it was heading in the wrong direction (down 4%).

Again, Coalition voters were more likely to think the economy is heading in the right direction (45%) than Labor (25%), Greens (18%) and independent/other voters (16%). Men were also more likely to think that the economy was heading in the right direction (36%) than women (23%).

Voters were also asked a number of questions about their confidence in Malcolm Turnbull to deliver on certain issues. Poll respondents were most confident that the prime minister could deliver tougher citizenship requirements (55% confident) and tighter regulations for foreign workers (52%).

They were least confident that he could deliver action on climate change (61% not confident), a balanced budget (59%), jobs and growth (58%), and a strong economy (56%).

The survey has Labor retaining its lead over the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure, 53% to 47% – the same result as last week. A Newspoll survey published on Sunday night had Labor ahead 52% to 48%.