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WATERLOO REGION — The new coronavirus has claimed another life in the region and five more staff members at a Kitchener long-term care home have been infected.

The regional public health department updated the latest COVID-19 numbers Friday morning, bringing the region's new total to 242 cases.

"In the next weeks, we are going to see a rise in our curve," acting medical officer of health Dr. Hsiu-Li Wang said at Friday's media briefing. This is because the region is ramping up its testing for COVID-19.

"We're going to take advantage, as much as possible, of all the increased testing capacity that Ontario is in the process of making happen."

Wang said the actual number of tests being conducted in Waterloo Region will depend on the number of kits provided by the province.

The province announced Friday it would be significantly expanding testing around the Ontario, actively targeting priority groups, including hospital inpatients; long-term care residents; health care and front-line workers; people in remote communities; people in shelters, prisons and group homes; essential workers and specific vulnerable populations.

With this new strategy the province seeks to bring the number of tests processed each day to 8,000 by April 15, and 14,000 by April 29.

As of April 10, the province reports more than 94,000 tests have been conducted. A total of 383,322 patients have been tested across the country.

New local data shows the number of employees infected at Forest Heights Revera long-term care home has increased from six to 11, with 18 confirmed cases among residents. The new data also shows a staff member at Lanark Heights long-term care home has tested positive.

Dr. Wang said this rise of cases at homes where COVID-19 was found is to be expected. Measures have been put into place to slow the spread and prevent future cases, she said, adding she's happy this level of increase hasn't happened at other homes. With increased testing, more confirmed cases will likely be detected.

Modelling for the number of deaths in Waterloo Region

By April 30, the region may see up to 66 deaths — and that's only if public health measures are followed closely, Wang said.

Without public health measures in place, Waterloo Region could see roughly 246 deaths by the end of the month.

The number of deaths projected across the province over the next three weeks range from up to 1,600 with public health measures in place, to 6,000, with no measures in place.

Modelling projections for deaths in Waterloo Region over the course of the pandemic range from up to 615 with current public health measures in place, to 4,100 with no measures in place.

"Models cannot predict what will happen, but models can help us understand what could happen to help support decision-making so we can plan actions that will enable better outcomes."

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These projections have limitations, she said, and the further out the predictions are the more uncertain they are.

As of Thursday evening, nine people have been killed by COVID-19 in the region. A total of 28 people are currently hospitalized out of 55 people who were hospitalized at some point. The latest data shows 77 cases have been resolved.

The region will no longer be calling people to inform them of negative results. People will be able to check those online at covid-19.ontario.ca. Public health will still inform people about positive test results.

Dr. Wang encouraged people to stay at home over the holiday weekend, unless they absolutely need to go out. People can still go on walks, jog or ride a bicycle to get exercise, but only if proper physical distancing is observed.

Based on the best available evidence to date, public health believes six feet, or two metres, is a good distance for people to maintain, she said. This goes for people who are standing around talking, or those who are jogging or cycling.

"For those who celebrate, this is an Easter and Passover experience none could have expected," Wang said.

This year, people need to stay home and celebrate these occasions only with members of their own households, she said.

"If we relax our measures, if we let up our guard, even momentarily, this can and will lead to an escalation of cases and an escalation of deaths in the Waterloo Region."

The data provided by the region's public health department Friday is current as of 7 p.m. on April 9.

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