Washington (CNN) The 2020 election is 620 days away. Which, according to new state-by-state polling data from Gallup, is a very good thing for President Donald Trump.

The data paints a simple but ominous picture for Trump: If the presidential election were held today, he would almost certainly lose. Here's the key insight from the Gallup data

"Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating below 40% account for 201 electoral votes.

"In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%."

Which puts a pretty fine point on the challenge facing Trump and his 2020 campaign team between now and November 3. But to put an even FINER point on it -- here are just a sampling of the states where Trump's approval rating is currently below 49%: Texas (41%), Pennsylvania (42%), Michigan (42%) and Florida (43%). Those four states have 103 electoral votes between them. And Trump won ALL of them in 2016.