Ukraine has received an important infusion of money, the first tranche of the IMF loan for which Ukraine has been reorganizing its economy. World Affairs Journal reports:

Ukraine says it has received the first $5 billion tranche of an International Monetary Fund loan for its strained economy. The Finance Ministry said in a statement on March 13 that $2.2 billion will be put in government accounts and the rest go to the central bank to help stabilize the falling national currency, the hryvnya. The $5 billion tranche is the first part of a four-year, $17.5 billion IMF package.

In a separate analysis, RFE/RL warns that “the deal’s success is contingent on the government making deep and immediate cutbacks that could scuttle the program long before it has a chance to work.” In order to get the loan Ukraine has had to decrease government spending (while simultaneously increasing military spending, spending more money on internally displaced persons and repairs to infrastructure, all due to Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine). They’ve done this by cutting energy subsidies (the cost of heating gas is estimated to increase by three fold) and cutting pensions and social services. But these cutbacks will likely make the Ukrainian economy worse, making it harder for Ukraine’s government to balance the budget.

Worst of all, RFE/RL reports that the IMF is skeptical too:

Even the IMF itself has expressed serious doubts that the Ukrainian loan program can succeed. A report published on March 12, a day after the loan package was announced, says there are “exceptionally high risks” to the program ever succeeding. The report says a positive outcome is contingent on at least a couple of factors outside the country’s control. The main factor is the ongoing conflict with Russia in the east of the country. While a shaky cease-fire continues to hold, the IMF has said in the past a return to major fighting would jeopardize future loan payments. The report also says success depends on Ukraine’s ability to renegotiate its existing loans with public and private creditors.

One of those creditors is Russia, which holds $3 billion of Ukraine’s outstanding debt.

Ironically, since Russia is part of the IMF, they are using their propaganda networks to brag about Ukraine’s receipt of the first tranche of the loan: