How cruel is farming. Survive weather's vagaries to plant what promises to be a bumper winter wheat crop just in time to see prices crash.

The world is awash with wheat. Record northern hemisphere production has capped four years of supply exceeding demand. Silos are overflowing, grain is being stored on the ground where weather permits it. After the dairy farmers media opportunity, the background for the next rural double header by the Prime Minister and his deputy could be a combine harvester.

Depending on how you want to look at it, the latest drop in prices has taken American wheat in US dollars to a 10-year low and a 16-year low in Australian dollars. Australian wheat prices also have plunged to multi-year lows. In real terms, allowing for inflation, it's arguable they are the lowest in generations, perhaps ever.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science June quarter commodities outlook forecast the world wheat indicator price would fall 10 per cent in 2016-17 to a 15-year low. That was before the International Grains Council last week increased its production forecast to a record 743 million tonnes, up 1 per cent on last year's record. The Chicago benchmark price dropped a sharp 4.4 per cent on Friday night and has continued to weaken.