The most vulnerable Democrats include Pryor (left), Landrieu and Begich. | AP Photos GOP Senate in 2014 a long shot

Republicans have whiffed in two straight Senate cycles but will get a third swing at the majority in 2014. It will take a lot more than charm, though, to put them back in power.

Twenty Senate Democrats will have to defend their seats that year, while just 13 Republicans will be up for reelection. At least six of the Democrats represent red states — places like Arkansas, Louisiana and South Dakota — and are seen as ripe GOP pickings. Retirements could expand the map for the party.


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Still, Republicans will need almost everything to break in their favor to pick up the half-dozen seats needed to take back the Senate. It’s certainly possible but a long shot.

After all, we’ve seen this script before and know how it ended: with bloody Republican primaries that yielded weak, self-immolating or unelectable nominees. As much as Republicans will be up against a beatable slate of Democrats in two years, they’re also in a race against the clock — to fix their own myriad internal problems that have practically ceded the Senate to Democrats.

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“If the Republicans run the same pattern of the last two cycles, the Democrats ought to have an easy time,” said former conservative Democratic Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana. “That’s going to be a battle they’re going to go through. Not mentioning names, there are some in the Senate that are reacting in a fashion that [indicates they] understand they have to change.”

The task of flipping the Senate in 2014 got a lot harder after Democrats nearly ran the table last week, picking up two seats when breaking even would have been a coup. Republicans would probably need a wave of 2010 proportions to get there.

At this early vantage point, the six most vulnerable Democrats are Sens. Mark Begich of Alaska, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, n. Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Max Baucus of Montana.

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Sens. Mark Udall of Colorado and Mark Warner of Virginia will also be up for reelection, but Republicans acknowledge their opportunities in this pair of battleground states hinge almost completely on finding impeccable challengers.

Potential Democratic retirements include Sens. Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, who will turn 90 in 2014; Carl Levin of Michigan; Dick Durbin of Illinois; and Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia.

Durbin told Crain’s Chicago Business last week he plans to run but hadn’t made a final decision. A spokeswoman for Levin told POLITICO, “He has not focused on it because of his Senate work, but he’ll make a decision in the early part of next year.” Lautenberg’s press aide said his boss is “singularly focused on disaster relief and recovery” from Hurricane Sandy.

A Rockefeller retirement would be the ripest turf for Republicans to make a play, spurring a potential open-seat bid by Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. Another wild card would be if Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is tapped as secretary of state. That would trigger another Bay State special election — and an opening for just-defeated Republican Sen. Scott Brown to wage a comeback.

Republicans will have to play some defense, too.

Some of its highest-profile members — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn — could face primary challenges from their restless and unruly base.

Of the 13 Republicans up in 2014, the most problematic retirement would be Maine Sen. Susan Collins, whose approval rating was measured to be 65 percent in one poll earlier this month. The moderate Republican hasn’t signaled her plans.

Facing persistent speculation about his future, the second-term Pryor announced in April he’s running for reelection.

And Democrats with knowledge of Pryor’s plans say it isn’t a head fake.

“There’s no question he’s gearing up. He’s in great shape,” said one operative, who noted an Arkansas poll in October placed the incumbent’s approval rating at 53 percent, 8 percentage points better than Republican John Boozman, the state’s junior senator.

The prevailing thought is that GOP Rep. Tim Griffin and 35-year-old incoming freshman Rep. Tom Cotton will work out their aspirations between themselves with one running for Senate and the other for governor.

John Goodson, a trial lawyer and longtime Democratic player in Arkansas, told The Weekly Standard recently that Cotton is “going to be our congressman, then our senator, then our president.”

In Alaska, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell — a Yale- and Harvard-educated entrepreneur who helped design camera technology used in Google maps — is considered a top-flight potential GOP challenger to Begich. Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan comes from a well-known Alaska family, and 2010 tea party candidate Joe Miller is keeping his options open but is seen as radioactive among establishment GOP types.

In Louisiana, Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy has openly mused about a challenge to Landrieu, indicating he plans to travel the state in the coming months to gauge support.

“What American who loves their country wouldn’t want to run for the U.S. Senate?” he told LAPolitics Weekly after the election.

As for Gov. Bobby Jindal, a spokesman emailed, “He’s not running in 2014 for Senate.”

Louisiana looks at first blush like a Republican gimme. But Breaux said Landrieu is in better shape than she was just two years ago because of her strong ties to the state’s powerful oil and gas sector.

“She’s running against a trend in Louisiana now that every statewide officeholder is a Republican; all the congressional seats are Republican except one; and it’s a state that voted for Romney very heavily. That’s what she’s up against,” Breaux said. “But I can’t think of anyone better situated than she is to get reelected.”

North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis is the early Republican favorite to mount a bid against the first-term Hagan because of his fundraising ability and close ties to Gov.-elect Pat McCrory. But if Republicans want to make a concerted effort to close the gender gap, they may turn to Rep. Renee Ellmers, who just won a second term.

In South Dakota, GOP Gov. Mike Rounds has already formed an exploratory committee for a campaign against Johnson, who has not yet discussed his 2014 plans.

Montana’s Baucus, who saw his approval ratings drop after his lead role in the polarizing health care debate, ran a weeklong radio advertisement in April to signal his pursuit of a seventh term. Outgoing Gov. Brian Schweitzer is frequently mentioned as a potential primary challenger to Baucus, who is seen by many on the left as having watered down Obamacare to make it more palatable to Republicans.

Of course, if history repeats itself, more of the primary action will be on GOP turf.

McConnell is building what his team dubs a “presidential-size” organization to scare off any challenges from the right and gird for a competitive general election.

”We’ll be fully up and running in January 2013, and that’s the earliest he’s ever been. It’s not a presidential year, so we know the focus will be on high-caliber Senate races, and we’re going to be ready for it,” said a top aide to McConnell. “You can’t wait for a primary, but if one pops up, we will be ready and we will win.”

The fiscally conservative Club for Growth already has South Carolina’s Graham in its crosshairs.

Anticipating a primary slog, Graham has stockpiled $4.4 million, and his team is going through a cursory review of incumbents who have endured ferocious primary races.

“We look forward to running a strong campaign promoting Sen. Graham’s conservative credentials on fiscal, social and military issues. He has a lifetime conservative rating of 90 percent and is a great fit for the state of South Carolina,” said Graham’s top political aide, Scott Farmer.

If Graham were to be upended in a primary, the assumption would be that Republicans would still be favored to hold the seat in a state that Romney carried by 11 percentage points.

But this year, some Republicans thought the same about Indiana.

“We can’t take nothing for granted,” said a GOP operative gearing up to work on 2014 races. “Anywhere.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the last time South Carolina elected a Democratic senator.

CORRECTION: Corrected by: Bryan Doyle @ 11/11/2012 10:22 PM Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the last time South Carolina elected a Democratic senator.