ESL One Cologne 2015 - predictions

ESL One Cologne is right around the corner and with just a few weeks to go, here are the general thoughts and predcitions for the tournament.



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The Format:

ESL announced a change in its tournament format, which will now feature two different group phases. The tournament will be a test for this new format. A lot of people are sceptical regarding the change, to say the least, and the format itself is nowhere near ideal for a major tournament.

The redrawing of groups means some of the potential quaterfinalists could expect upsets when facing other very strong teams, as well as some of the weaker teams possibly getting a pass into the knockout stage of Cologne.

Group A, overview and recent form:

This will be a very tight group, just like any other group at this major, with each of the teams having a chance to advance into the playoffs. Based on recent form the first slot could go to anyone, however, most people expect TSM to take it as they're the highest rated team of the group.

TSM has had a bad run of results recently, crashing out in last place in the APM event after suffering loses to teams like E-Frag and HellRaisers. However, the Danes are still expected to advance to the quaterfinals after the initial group phase.

Ninjas in Pyjamas is one of the teams expected to battle for second place in the group. We have not seen much from the team recently. The last event NiP attended was the FaceIT League where it crashed out in groups, only winning against Team Liquid. We can't rule them out, however, as NiP has reached every single major final there was despite people doubting them.

Renegades is another team that could potentially upset one of the "big boys." The Aussies have most recently attended the IEM Gamescom where they came out in third place. Their success was partly thanks to the format of the tournament. It will be interesting to see how their stars perform, but the Oceanian team is expected to crash out in the last place in their group.

Counter Logic Gaming has been on the rise recently and there is no doubt they're by far the second best North American team. They have triumphed against teams like fnatic and Luminosity (ex-KeyD) just to lose four straight games at the IEM gamescom in Cologne, Germany. The North American's form has been very mixed recently, but if they are able to counterstrat like they did against fnatic, they look to battle it out for the second slot with NiP and potentially upset TSM.

Group B, overview and recent form:

This is the ideal draw for EnvyUs. The French will be facing off against team Kinguin, the Brasilian Luminosity Gaming who recently changed zqk for cold, and FlipSid3 who was left by their star player s1mple. This is a no brainer, the group should be topped by nV and the second spot will go to either Kinguin or LG with F3 most likely crashing out first.

EnvyUs are coming in strong, thanks to a big win at the IEM Gamescom tournament where they only lost one game to Mousesports. They also 3-0'ed the Danes, TSM, in the final of the tournament retaining their three lives. If they don't come up against Cloud9 or fnatic who proved to be their kryptonite, they can even win the whole event. The minimal placement expected for this team is top four and they won't be staisfied with anything less than that.

Team Kinguin is one of the teams that could cause a potential upset with the likes of dennis or maikelele who can just explode in one game or the top aimers like ScreaM and rain. The team sure boasts a lot of talent, however, can they deal with such a high pressure situation? They have already proven they can go up against the top teams beating VP 2-1 and taking a map off of Na'Vi on LAN. Unless they get an unlucky draw in the second group phase, they should advance into at least the quater finals.

The ex-KeyD Stars team now playing under the tag of Luminosity Gaming have a lot to prove. They are the only "new" legends team in this tournament compared to the previous one. They showed potential upsetting the likes of TSM during the ESL ESEA Pro League, taking a map off of VP during last major and by going toe to toe against CLG and C9 during the online seasons of the NA competitions. They, however, only have one true star, with the rest being very consistent players which could be problematic when coming up aginst the Europeans.

FlipSid3 Tactics is one of the worst teams to qualify for the tournament. They have a few promising players that could have a breakthrough at this event. However, they lost their star player in s1mple and are no doubt considered the worst team in the second group. With the lack of the carry power s1mple provided, a lot rides on Bondik's shoulders. For F3 to even have a chance Markeloff needs to wake up and Blad3 has to have the in-game-leading tournament of his life.

Group C, overview and recent form:

Group C is more or less fnatic and Natus Vincere battling it out for first spot. Titan has proven to be able to win against fnatic, but that was with the previous line-up. There's no doubt Ex6TenZ is one of the world's best in-game leaders, but can he lead this new Titan, that's lacking in fire power, to victories against much better teams like fnatic and Na'Vi? As for eBettle, they showed they can beat Titan but there is no real chance for them to beat any of the top teams and advance into play-offs.

The reigning kings - fnatic - are once again one of the favourite teams to take the title home. They should match up well against Na'Vi and with pronax as the mastermind behind their success, they should also win against Titan. The veto process for the entire group will be crucial and fnatic, as well as Titan, are very good at forcing the maps they want to play. If the Swedes don't get upset by Na'Vi they should come out in first place. A minimum placement predicted for this team is top four.

The Ukrainian squad of Natus Vincere are in quite the predicament. As it is almost certain they will not get the first spot in group C, they'll most likely have to face another strong opponent in the second group phase. It should be possible for them to win against fnatic, but in order to do that their star players must deliver. We all know what a beast flamie and GuardiaN can be, but the key to winning this match-up could be seized whose been on a slump lately. Na'Vi have also had very strong performances recently, contrary to fnatic who looked a bit shakey loosing to CLG and C9. Na'Vi could potentially sneak into the top four of this tournament at NiP's or VP's expense.

Titan is very much a question mark. They didn't have great results at the Cologne qualifiers. The team is also lacking in fire-power as the only real star they have is shox with everybody else having a support role. Maniac and RpK have been in very good form recently as well as SmithZz, who was forced to become the AWPer for his team. There's no doubt that Ex6TenZ can get the team a lot of T-rounds, but the question is whether or not they can hold the CT side as a team. In order for this to happen they need their players to seize playing support roles and start carrying their team to victory.

The Polish team, eBettle was a big surprise at the ESL One Cologne Offline qualifers and with wins over the likes of Titan and HellRaisers they proved their capabilities as a team. However, unless the team implements a variety of new tactics like their unique bank/A-site take on de_overpass they showed against HR, they'll need Hyper to go insane every game and even that won't be enough to take down powerhouses like Na'Vi or fnatic.

Group D, overview and recent form:

Group D is very much like group C, with three teams battling it out for the first spot and one team being out of the race prematurely. That team is Immunity. The Aussies showed good form by winning against Team Liquid and coming close to beating NiP during the FACEIT season 2 LAN finals in London. VP are the favourites to win this group with a perfect record against the current C9 team. It should be up to Mousesports and C9 to lock down the second spot.

Virtus.Pro, the Polish team is coming in hot. After winning CEVO Season 7 LAN finals they're beaming with confidence. The team has shown us that they can beat the best teams no matter who they are with recent wins over the likes of Na'Vi, C9 or TSM as well as beating nV and fnatic multiple times this year already. The problem with VP is that they can win against the best, but sometimes can also lose to the worst, however, that shouldn't be the case at a major. Also having a perfect record against C9 makes them the favourites to win this group and break into the top four again.

Mousesports, the Germans, have been on the rise recently with chrisJ and nex being the key figures for them. gob b has also been an integral part of their team as he was able to counter-strat most of the European powerhouses including VP and nV. Their great form has been somewhat overshadowed by the recent losses, first to HR in the APM finals, 3-4, and then to Kinguin 3-0 in the PGL Season 1 Qualifiers. If everything goes well and everybody performs up to the expectations they should be able to break into the play-offs and, although very unlikely, into the top four. They also showed that they can easily match-up against VP which can play into their hands.

Cloud9, very much like Mousesports, have been relying heavily on their two stars and in-game leader. The top American team has also been on the rise making several LAN finals in a row and defeating most of the top European competitors like nV, fnatic and TSM. However, they are yet to beat VP and Na'Vi who seem to know their weaknesses. C9 will rely heavily on anti-strating their opponents, their map-pool will not play into their strengths considering its bredth in comparison to the other top teams. C9 have a big chance to become the first team from NA to make it into the top four and it could be at the expense of teams like VP or NiP with the latter being more likely.

I don't think many people expect Immunity to win a single game at the major. The Aussies have presented quite good form earlier this year at FACEIT season 2 LAN finals in London beating Team Liquid and even giving NiP a run for their money. However, that was before they lost their star player, Yam, to Renegades. They also put up a good show at the Asian qualifiers for this event, but they shouldn't stand a chance here and it would be a miracle if they pull out anything big out of this group.

Key Points:

Teams like TSM, nV, fnatic and VP are expected to win their groups with Na'Vi, Mousesports and C9 potentially upsetting them. If the draw is kind to the rest of the teams we should also see a similar set of teams joining the previous four in the quarter finals: Mousesports and C9 are the most likely to join the rest in the knockout-stage with Kinguin, NiP and Titan potentially giving them a run for their money. We will almost certainly see Na'Vi in the next stage. Teams that could also cause a potential upset are LG and CLG although not many people expect them to. The re-drawing of groups could potentially kill chances of a few of the teams mentioned above. FlipSid3, Immunity and team eBettle shouldn't have any chances at cracking the top 8 or even winning one game, unlike RNG, who, all factors taken into account, are still unlikely to do so.

Headline image by Patrick Strack and ESL.

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