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Two of my picks for the 5 best fights left in 2009 will take place this Saturday at UFC 107. Our free picks will be posted soon, but for now we look at the main event: Diego Sanchez vs. B.J. Penn.

B.J. is 14-5-1. Diego is 21-2. As far as common opponents go, they’ve both beaten Kenny Florian and Joe Stevenson. B.J. submitted Stevenson while Diego won via unanimous decision. B.J. beat up Florian and then submitted him at UFC 101. Diego beat Florian via TKO at The Ultimate Finale 1 back in 2005.

B.J.’s losses are to some big names. He’s lost to Matt Hughes when Hughes was a killer, Jens Pulver when L’il Evil was on top, twice to GSP, and once to Machida in K-1. Diego has lost to Fitch and Koscheck. So how’s it going to go?

Sanchez is considerably stronger than he was in the past and he is built to go the distance. B.J. has proven that his endurance and desire are strong, something that was questioned in the past. He’s also been unbeatable at 155 lbs.

Diego has lost 2 decisions. He’s never been submitted. Never been knocked out. Diego will survive all that B.J. throws at him. Then Diego Sanchez is going to rock B.J. Penn and hurt him. And the UFC will have a new lightweight champion.

Diego Sanchez by KO/TKO in round 3. Believe it.