While President Obama is enjoying the last laugh after what Prime Minister Netanyahu called his “shameful ambush” of Israel at the U.N. Security Council, his glee may be severely shortsighted. In fact, his abstention at the U.N., which resulted in the passing of a resolution that declared Israel’s settlement construction in the West Bank a “flagrant violation” of international law, has likely made winning back the White House in 2020 significantly more challenging for Democrats.

But, not so fast. One could quickly review Jewish demographic and electoral statistics--Jews make up less than 2 percent of the U.S. population and only about 3 percent of the U.S. electorate--and declare that the Jewish vote just isn’t critical to presidential elections. In fact, initial research from the 2016 election shows Clinton earned 2 percent more of the Jewish vote than Obama in 2012 (71% from 69%), Trump received 6 percent fewer Jewish votes than Mitt Romney (24% from 30%), resulting in a substantial 8 percent shift in the total Jewish vote in favor of Democrats.

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However, just because Democratic advances with the Jewish vote were not enough to blunt Trump’s huge gains with other voting blocs, does not mean Jews should be easily disregarded as electorally unimportant. The opposite is true, especially for the 2020 Presidential Election.

Jews vote at a higher intensity than any other U.S. religious or ethnic group. Furthermore, while Democratic “sure things” New York and California may be the two largest Jewish states, Jews have very sizable populations in four of the five states Trump flipped from the Democrats in 2016. Three of these states could determine the electoral outcome in 2020--Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan--which together make up a whopping 65 electoral votes.

In the table below, I show the number of votes Clinton lost to Trump by in Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016. I then predict the consequences of a significant, but not unrealistic, shift in the Jewish vote favoring Republicans--a 5% increase from Republican highs in 2012 and a 9% decrease from Democratic lows in 2012--resulting in 60% of Jews voting Democratic and 35% voting Republican in 2020. The last column shows what a hypothetical 2020 Republican victory margin would be when factoring in this projected shift in Jewish votes, ceteris paribus.

Clinton 2016 Loss Margin Hypothetical Republican 2020 Jewish Gains Hypothetical 2020 Republican Victory Margin (ceteris paribus) Florida 112,911 105,375 218,286 Pennsylvania 44,292 48,663 92,955 Michigan 10,704 13,575 24,279

In Florida, the Republicans increase their margin of victory by over 93 percent. In Pennsylvania, the margin is increased by 109 percent and in Michigan nearly 127 percent. These figures highlight just how challenging it will be for Democrats to win back these swing states if Republicans are able to shift a reasonable portion of Jewish voters in their favor.

The rebuke to suggesting a possible significant shift in the Jewish vote is both sensible and obvious--Republicans have been talking about taking a large chunk of Jewish voters from Democrats for decades. This hasn’t happened because Jews do not primarily vote on Israel, they vote on social issues for which they are notoriously liberal.

But 2016 has shown that Republican “white whales” can be caught. Before 2016, Pennsylvania and Michigan hadn’t been won by Republicans since 1988. Wisconsin, not since 1984! With Obama’s unprecedented anti-Israel actions, why can’t Republicans make inroads of an additional 5 percent from Mitt Romney? Of course they can.

What about Democrats? Will Obama’s orchestrated shake down of Israel at the U.N. really result in Jews abandoning the party?

National surveys of Jews over the years have shown a growing disappointment in the way the U.S.-Israel relationship has soured under President Obama’s tenure. While this alone may not have been enough for many Jews to abandon their Democratic Party allegiance in 2016, consider the circumstances. Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonDemocratic groups using Bloomberg money to launch M in Spanish language ads in Florida The Hill's Campaign Report: Presidential polls tighten weeks out from Election Day More than 50 Latino faith leaders endorse Biden MORE’s rhetoric was far more pro-Israel than Obama’s. Furthermore, the blatant anti-Semitism of white nationalist groups supporting Trump’s campaign left a bad taste in the mouths of many Jews.

Interestingly, this vote at the U.N. may not end up being the icing on the cake for Republicans. Democrats are considering Keith Ellison, a man who defended Louis Farrakahn against accusation of anti-Semitism and has called for the end to Israel’s use of the U.S. as it’s personal ATM, to head the Democratic National Committee. This is further driving a wedge between Jews and Democrats, some who have openly promised to stop fundraising for Democrats if he wins this race.

After eight years of hoping things wouldn’t get any worse between the U.S. and Israel, complete Republican control promises to usher in a new era of U.S.-Israel relations. Trump has already warned the U.N. “things will be different” after his swearing in. Following the passage of the U.N. resolution, Lindsey Graham Lindsey Olin GrahamSenate GOP aims to confirm Trump court pick by Oct. 29: report The Hill's Campaign Report: GOP set to ask SCOTUS to limit mail-in voting Senate GOP sees early Supreme Court vote as political booster shot MORE has supported defunding the U.N. until it is reversed which has received support from popular Republican senators including Marco Rubio Marco Antonio RubioOvernight Defense: Pentagon redirects pandemic funding to defense contractors | US planning for full Afghanistan withdrawal by May | Anti-Trump GOP group puts ads in military papers Democrats step up hardball tactics as Supreme Court fight heats up Press: Notorious RBG vs Notorious GOP MORE and Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzCruz blocks amended resolution honoring Ginsburg over language about her dying wish Trump argues full Supreme Court needed to settle potential election disputes Press: Notorious RBG vs Notorious GOP MORE.

Pro-Israel Jews, for the first time in at least eight years, are going to experience a restoration of the special relationship between the U.S. and Israel, and this will be exclusively thanks to Republican control of Washington. If Republicans can capitalize on this by reasonably shifting the Jewish electorate, their path to a 2020 win will have gotten considerably easier.

Feinberg is a Ph.D. student at the University of North Texas.