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Alberta has been through the boom-bust cycle many times, but that’s cold comfort for those who have lost their jobs or worry that their jobs might be next on the chopping block. The economic slowdown for which 2015 will be remembered has also been an anxious time for businesses that have seen their revenues fall and for students entering an anemic job market.

Will 2016 be better than 2015? Is the slowdown behind us or will it stick around? Despite a few bright spots, the signs point to another tough year ahead for the Alberta economy.

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Here are Alberta’s top five economic stories to watch in 2016:

A leaner and more efficient oilpatch. Between 2010 and 2014, strong oil prices pushed up wages in Alberta, making us one of the world’s highest-cost oil producers. But now things are coming back into balance. Salaries, bonuses and overtime pay are falling, especially in the energy sector. That will help the industry recalibrate and come back to profitability, even with oil at $US 60 or $70. But it will also weigh down Alberta’s macro-economy as retail sales, home prices and personal service providers feel the pinch. We’ll also see more merger and acquisition activity in the oilpatch in 2016 once players feel the bottom has been reached. Unfortunately, none of this is good news for oilpatch workers and job seekers, who are likely to face more layoffs, cutbacks and hiring freezes. Oil prices. There are always a lot of moving parts affecting global oil prices and 2016 will be no different. Some OPEC nations could collapse, bringing oil supply down with it. Hostilities could intensify in the Middle East. A prolonged cold snap could increase demand. Despite these uncertainties, there isn’t much hope for a quick oil price rebound. Global demand is strong at about 95 million barrels a day, but the problem is that supply is even greater. This imbalance — and the slumping prices it causes — may stick around for a while. If oil can find its way back into the $60-$65 range, Alberta’s economy will stabilize. If it languishes below that, 2016 is going to feel a lot like 2015 — or even worse. The global economy. China buys a huge amount of crude oil and other raw materials, and while it’s not buying much of them from Alberta, we benefit from the higher global prices. But China’s economy is slowing down, meaning that it won’t be able to support the high commodity prices of the last few years. Canada and Alberta will feel the pinch. Meanwhile in Europe, economists are predicting a decent year ahead, but the problems that led Greece to the verge of collapse haven’t been solved. There is reason to worry that another Greece-like crisis could rock not only Europe, but the rest of the global economy as well. That could trickle down to lower commodity prices and shaky financial markets, which would hit us here in Alberta. The United States. Trends in China and Europe do affect Alberta, but they’re small potatoes compared to the impact of the U.S. Analysts expect its economy to grow modestly in 2016 — good news for Alberta since the Americans are by far our largest customer. But with the Federal Reserve now moving into a tightening position (i.e., raising interest rates for the first time in a decade), a lot hangs in the balance of the Fed getting the timing of rate increases just right. Non-energy sectors. There’s plenty of good news in Alberta outside the oilpatch. Agriculture, forestry and tourism are the largest non-energy sectors in the province, and 2016 holds exciting potential. Helped out by the low Canadian dollar, an open U.S. border to livestock and a stronger U.S. economy, they could see some records next year.

If oil prices rebound, Alberta’s economy will have an OK year in 2016. If they don’t, and notwithstanding the bright spots outside the oilpatch, it’s likely to be another year many Albertans would rather forget.

Todd Hirsch is ATB Financial’s chief economist. Rob Roach is ATB Financial’s director of insight. Watch for Rob and Todd’s next book, Spiders in Space: Adapting to Unwanted Change.