Farideh Farhi pictures Ayatollah Ali Khamenei contemplating his legacy as an election day of 26 February approaches for Iranians to elect the 88 clerics who will sit in the Experts’ Assembly, majles-e khobregan, the body whose sole real function is to elect Iran’s rahbar (leader).



The poll is important, Farhi, lecturer at the University of Hawaii, told Tehran Bureau in an interview, not just because the assembly may during its eight-year term choose a successor to 76-year-old Khamenei. She believes the election, and the way it is conducted, will shape the whole future of the post of the supreme leader and his office, beyt-e rahbari, which are the lynchpins of Iran’s political structure.

This makes the next few weeks crucial, and Farhi will be looking very closely at the vetting of candidates by the constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council.

There are no clear precedents. Elections to the Experts’ Assembly have in the past seen the Guardian Council tightly restrict the field, and the only succession in the leadership since the 1979 Revolution saw Khamenei win the assembly’s approval in 1989 largely due to the prior approval given him by the ailing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Hojatoleslam Seyed Ali Khamenei, then president of Iran, at a press interview on 8 November 1982. Photograph: AP

“There is potential for this election to become competitive for the first time,” said Farhi. “Some older clerics who in the past refused to stand because of their disdain for vetting have registered to run. Some younger clerics will run, including at least one of Ayatollah Khomeini’s grandsons [Hassan] who is close to the reformist camp.”

Farhi views Khamenei as an “institution builder” who has transformed the post of leader from the days of Khomeini, when it rested largely on his strong charisma. Khamenei has vastly expanded the size of the office and extended its reach throughout politics and society.

“Ayatollah Khamenei’s legacy, like almost all other Middle Eastern leaders, will be shaped more by the way he parts than by what he has done as leader,” she said. “The extent to which the vast institution he has built - beyt-e rahbari, the leader’s ‘abode’ - is tied to his person isn’t yet clear. If it’s too closely tied to him, then his parting will be destabilising and so will not reflect positively on his legacy. His office constitutionally stands at the core of the Islamic Republic and its primary role is to assure the sustenance and stability of the Islamic Republic even at the time of transition.”

Hence Farhi believes that an Experts Assembly election without undue vetting of candidates could create a more representative and more widely respected body better placed to “negotiate the transition to a new leader, or perhaps even call for a leadership council,” an option that would require approval through a constitutional referendum.



Given his sway over the Guardian Council, half of whose members he appoints and whose decisions he has sometimes overruled, Khamenei could help bring about a more representative assembly. “If this happens,” said Farhi, “then the path is paved for the eventual selection of a new leader who is personally less powerful but heads an institution that is more secure in the long run.”

Farhi therefore argues that that February’s elections – there are parliamentary elections on the same day – will be a marker, in one direction or another, in Iran’s uneven, often haphazard journey towards representative government since the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-07.

Under portraits of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, right, and Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, a caligrapher of the Interior Ministry writes results of the Parliamentary elections on a board in Tehran on 21 February 2000. Photograph: Kamran Jebreili/AP

Doubts as to the worth of Iran’s electoral system increased with the disputed 2009 presidential poll, when two candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, denounced the results and thousands joined street protests as the ‘green movement’.

The 2009 unrest was followed by a 2012 parliamentary poll when the authorities failed to announce turnout figures. “Many voters especially in urban areas, devastated by the 2009 election and the violence that ensued, simply stayed home assuming predetermined results,” said Farhi.

But she regards the 2013 presidential election as change of direction, because a 73% turnout showed Iranians again thought voting could make a difference. The victory of Hassan Rouhani came because “hope overcame cynicism”, Farhi quickly wrote in a piece Why Rohani? for the London Review of Books.

This sets the scene for February, she said: “At the most basic level, February’s two elections are important if they end up confirming that competitive electoral politics – within the confines of the Islamic Republic – have become critical in deciding the policy direction of the country as well as reshaping its balance of power.



“A relatively high participation rate in large cities will confirm the perceived relevance of elections, and in effect suggest that 2009 was an aberration and not the norm in the gradual institutionalisation of the electoral process as broker in Iran’s competitive and factionalised politics.”

Despite leaving Iran in 1972 to study in the United States, Farhi has returned often, even during the 1980-88 war with Iraq. She spent most of the 1990s in posts in Iranian universities and has visited frequently ever since, recently making a six-week trip.

Farhi’s mix of on-the-ground experience, academic rigour and political acumen have made her not just a perceptive analyst of Iran’s complex politics but one of the few who has maintained an open mind. The remaining weeks up to 26 February may determine how open it remains.

The Tehran Bureau is an independent media organisation, hosted by the Guardian. Contact us @tehranbureau