Jason Williams

jwilliams@enquirer.com

A month from now, the University of Cincinnati could be in the Big 12 Conference.

Or UC could be a month away from receiving this harsh reality check: The Bearcats may be stuck indefinitely on the wrong side of a growing schism in college athletics driven by lucrative television contracts.

The Big 12 presidents and chancellors could decide whether the 10-school conference will expand during their annual spring meetings May 31-June 3 in suburban Dallas.

Expansion is not imminent for the smallest of the five major football conferences. But Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby told reporters Monday consultants' preliminary data shows expanding to 12 schools and adding a championship game would improve the the conference's chances of consistently making it to the lucrative College Football Playoff.

That could bode well for UC, because Big 12 officials have said the data will play a big part in driving the decision. The consultants' final report is expected by the presidents' meetings, the Dallas Morning News reported, but it's possible a decision on expansion may not come until later this summer.

As UC plays the waiting game, here are five things we know about the university's prospects of joining the Big 12 based on interviews, media reports and public records:

Inside UC's bid to join the Big 12

UC's in good position

None of the expansion candidates stand out as having the ability to significantly increase TV revenue for the Big 12. But UC appears to be the best of the candidates, including BYU and the Bearcats' American Athletic Conference rivals Connecticut, Central Florida, South Florida, Memphis and Houston.

UC and Cincinnati have a lot of positive things to offer the Big 12.

UC stacks up favorably in enrollment and academics with most Big 12 schools. Cincinnati's TV market size – 36th in U.S., according to Nielsen – is larger than any other Big 12 home market except Dallas-Fort Worth. Greater Cincinnati has proven it will tune into college football. In 2012, ESPN ranked Cincinnati No. 25 in college football TV market viewership.

Geographic location is perhaps what gives UC's its biggest advantage over the other candidates. The Big 12 is mostly based in Texas and the Midwest – with West Virginia being a geographic outlier. “It would be great to have a travel partner and geographic partner for West Virginia,” Bowlsby told West Virginia Illustrated last year.

Cincinnati is considerably closer to Morgantown, West Virginia, than all the current conference schools and other expansion candidates. West Virginia's closest Big 12 opponent is Iowa State – 860 miles away. Some 305 miles separate UC and West Virginia's campus.

Nippert expansion possible if UC joins Big 12

Ono, UC officials done about all they can do

President Santa Ono has aggressively promoted UC to the Big 12 for nearly two years. He's met with every Big 12 president and top league officials and pitched all of the aforementioned attributes of the university and city.

Ono has used splashy videos and fliers to promote UC's facilities, football and basketball success and data on how the university stacks up against the Big 12 schools.

In a promotional video, UC touts that it's committed to being a big-time athletic program. The university may have further sent that message to the Big 12 last month when UC extended the contracts of football coach Tommy Tuberville and basketball coach Mick Cronin.

UC also has leveraged relationships in the process. For example, Athletic Director Mike Bohn is a long-time friend of former Big 12 interim commissioner Chuck Neinas, who as a consultant has continued to work closely with some of the conference's decision makers.

Neinas reportedly helped get Bohn hired as the AD at the University of Colorado in 2005. Neinas' wife's Boulder, Colorado-based economics-data firm has provided information to Bohn on how UC stacks up against the Big 12 schools and the other expansion candidates.

Neinas also is a key figure because he has a long-time relationship with University of Oklahoma President David Boren, the new chairman of the Big 12 board of directors. Boren led the effort to bring Neinas on as the Big 12's interim commissioner in 2011, according to the Denver Post.

Boren, Gee like UC

Boren is one of the most powerful presidents in college sports, and the timing of his appointment as Big 12 board chair last month could be good for UC's chances.

The former Oklahoma governor has been outspoken about the Big 12's need to expand, create a conference TV network and launch a football championship game – and Boren seems to like UC.

As The Enquirer exclusively reported in February, Boren told Ono in an email after they met last year: “You are truly an outstanding leader and knowing that you are at the helm in Cincinnati makes me even more inclined to support your cause."

But Boren has not been able to sway the University of Texas to favor expansion, so all eyes are on the former U.S. Senator to see if he can from his new position.

West Virginia President Gordon Gee also favors adding schools, and he and Boren makeup two-thirds of the Big 12's expansion subcommittee along with Baylor President Ken Starr.

Gee likes UC, not just because of its geographical location. He was at Ohio State when Ono became UC's president in 2012. Gee offered advice to Ono, and they developed a relationship and have remained in contact.

Boren and Gee have declined multiple interview requests from The Enquirer.

Texas not on board

Texas and Oklahoma hold most of the decision-making power, and expansion almost certainly will not happen without the Longhorns getting on board. Texas' TV deal has made school officials reluctant to favor expansion.

In 2011, Texas launched the Longhorn Network after signing a deal with ESPN that pays the university $295 million over 20 years. But it's been a bust so far, having lost $48 million, according to a December report by the San Antonio Express-News.

ESPN has struggled to make money because subscriber goals have fallen short, likely because the network mostly airs Longhorns volleyball, softball, soccer and other so-called Olympic sports.

Big 12 leaders have been in talks about essentially converting the Longhorn Network into the Big 12 Network, sources said. In return, Texas would still make more money from the network than any other school.

The Big 12 and Atlantic Coast Conference are the only the so-called Power 5 conferences that do not have their own TV networks.

Doc: Big 12 money would be nice for UC

Majority not enough

It's believed seven of the 10 schools favor expansion. But Big 12 bylaws call for a super majority vote of 75 percent (so at least eight schools) to make a major change. Texas is believed to be influencing Texas Tech's and Texas Christian's decisions to also be reluctant to expansion.

Texas Tech has long fallen in line with Texas. Both are public universities that have been in the same league together since 1956, when they were in the Southwest Conference. Texas and Texas Tech were founding members of the Big 12 in 1996.

TCU is believed to be following Texas' lead because the conference's power broker reportedly helped the Horned Frogs get into the Big 12 four years ago.