Aug 29, 2017

Meral Aksener, a Turkish nationalist who is being touted as a possible challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has defined the contours of the battleground where she will wage her campaign: the center.

One of her top lieutenants, Koray Aydin, announced in a television program aired last night that the party she is planning to launch before year-end will likely be christened the “Center Democratic Party.” This is the clearest signal yet that the combative former interior minister will not rely on a strictly nationalist platform. Following in the footsteps of Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the late Turgut Ozal and his Motherland Party of the 1980s, Aksener will seek to assemble assorted conservatives, nationalists and disgruntled Islamists around the political center.

According to Kemal Can, a leading commentator on Turkey’s nationalist movement, Aksener knows she cannot succeed if she limits herself to seeking to appropriate the platform of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and its base. Aksener, a former MHP deputy, was pushed out of the party after leader Devlet Bahceli quashed her bid to replace him. Hundreds of MHP officials have since defected to Aksener.

Aydin disclosed last week that Aksener would likely run against Erdogan in the presidential election in 2019. Whoever wins will be endowed with the sweeping executive powers bestowed by the package of constitutional amendments that were narrowly approved in a fraud-tainted referendum on April 16. Turkey’s ongoing shift from a parliamentary democracy to what critics charge amounts to a dictatorship has transformed the political landscape and Turkey’s ineffectual opposition is scrambling to catch up.

Armed with emergency rule that lingers in the wake of last summer's failed coup, Erdogan is already exercising many of the powers that are meant to kick in after the next presidential poll. Using the putsch for cover, he has ruthlessly set about defanging his opponents and few doubt Aksener faces the same. Her experience in government, conservative family values and reputation for decisiveness and probity pose a real threat as a growing number of Turks yearn for stability and the rule of law.