Trends in Cumulative Marginal Tax Rates Facing Low-Income Families, 1997-2007

NBER Working Paper No. 22782

Issued in October 2016

NBER Program(s):Labor Studies, Public Economics



We present new calculations of cumulative marginal tax rates (MTRs) facing low income families participating in multiple welfare programs over the period 1997-2007, the period after 1996 welfare reform but before the program expansions of the Great Recession. Our calculations are for nondisabled, nonelderly families who pay federal and state income taxes and the payroll tax but receive benefits from up to four different transfer programs—Medicaid, Food Stamps, subsidized housing, and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. The results show enormous variation in MTRs across families who participate in different combinations of welfare programs, who have different family structures, and who have earnings in different ranges. For families who participate in either no or fewer than two welfare programs, which constitutes the large majority of low income families, MTRs are either negative or positive but modest in magnitude. But families participating in two or more programs, while still facing negative or modest positive rates at low earnings, usually face considerably higher MTRs at higher earnings ranges, often up to 80 percent and even occasionally over 100 percent. While the fraction of families in this category is not large, they constitute about one-fifth of single parent families.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22782

Published: Gizem Kosar & Robert A. Moffitt, 2017. "Trends in Cumulative Marginal Tax Rates Facing Low-Income Families, 1997–2007," Tax Policy and the Economy, vol 31(1), pages 43-70. citation courtesy of

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