Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL picks segment, seen on SportsCenter, to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 38-18 ATS (last week: 4-1)

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Are the Browns really going to lose every game? They've played a bunch of close ones so far, but I don't think this is the week they'll get over the hump. This number isn't as high as you'd think for a 7-3 team facing one that's 0-11, and the Giants are certainly susceptible to looking ahead. Luke McCown gives the Browns a chance to win, but the Giants pull another one out late as Cleveland forces them to play for 60 minutes.

Score: New York Giants 23, Browns 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have lost five straight to the Bengals, and Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is on record as saying his team needs to beat Cincinnati to win the AFC North. Well, fortunate for the Ravens, this Bengals team is a little different than in years past. Baltimore needs Joe Flacco to stand up and be one of its best players, to complement a strong defense. Injuries to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard are too much for the Bengals to overcome in this one.

Score: Ravens 23, Bengals 16

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

Jacksonville played Detroit and Kansas City close, but sooner or later playing tough and having nothing to show for it catches up to a team. Buffalo is 5-5 and showed me something the past two weeks with the way it played in Seattle and in Cincy. The Bills have a real shot to make the playoffs, something they haven't done this century (last trip was 1999). LeSean McCoy is banged up and Sammy Watkins might play sparingly, but I'm not sure it matters in this one. Buffalo starts its playoff push.

Score: Bills 24, Jaguars 14

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders

Carolina is a game team and will give this its best shot, but it doesn't seem like it's the Panthers' year. The Panthers are running out of straws to grasp, and having Luke Kuechly (and Ryan Kalil) out for this one will really hurt. The Raiders are a first-place team and are starting to play like it. They pull another one out late at home.

Score: Raiders 27, Panthers 21

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Last week was certainly a head-scratcher against Tampa Bay, as Kansas City doesn't usually lose at home to under-.500 teams. The Chiefs need to play their best overall game of the year to win in Denver. They won there last year, so they won't be scared of the situation. Denver hasn't found its running game without C.J. Anderson, and I think the defense will be up to the task against Trevor Siemian. Justin Houston plays more of a role in this one and Kansas City wins on the road.

Score: Chiefs 20, Broncos 19