Just a few days ago (30 July 2013), I was reading Goal.com and there was an article about West Ham United’s co-owner David Gold stating his belief that while a long time ago, Sam Allardyce may have played the ‘long ball,’ but that at West Ham, he’s been different. Gold says Allardyce is still very direct, but doesn’t use the long ball and has simply struggled to shake that reputation from his early managerial days. I think it is pretty obvious to most that Allardyce and West Ham didn’t play magical football last season, and Gold essentially says that Allardyce is not a purist and that the likes of Wenger and Martinez are in the minority in terms of playing great football, but I thought I’d look into just how the far fetched the characterisation of Allardyce’s West Ham as a 'long ball’ team is. (Hint: It isn’t.)

West Ham United 2012-2013

Aside from the fact that they not only brought in Andy Carroll on loan last year, they have now spent about £15m for the English target man, a player that scored just under half of his goals in 2012-2013 with his head. But, it’s more than just that West Ham United and Sam Allardyce had and will have Andy Carroll has their main attacking threat, it’s how they played, which is what this is about.

Gold says that Allardyce and West Ham don’t play a long-ball style of play, but if you look around the league, it comes clear that, relative to the rest of the league, Allardyce’s West Ham certainly do play the long ball.

Below, you’ll see a table of statistics from the 2012/2013 season showing each team’s total attempted passes, total attempted long balls, the percentage of long balls played compared to the total amount of passes, and the average possession of the ball through the season.

You’ll see West Ham United attempted the third lowest amount of total passes, had the fourth highest long ball percentage, and the fourth lowest average possession.

Above them in terms of long ball play were Stoke City, who recorded their lowest long ball percentage in their five years in the Premier League, Reading, who had the lowest average possession, and Newcastle, who just had a horrible season compared to their previous fifth place finish.

Just highlighting their tendency to play long balls wasn’t enough though, it was who was playing them, and who was receiving them. In the chart below you’ll see the number of passes made by Jussi Jääskeläinen’s passes to West Ham’s starting forward in each of their 38 matches. It also includes where that passing combination (e.g., Jääskeläinen to Carroll) ranks in terms of the rest of the passing combinations that occurred throughout the West Ham team. So if Jääskeläinen made 20 passes to Carroll in a given match, and that was the most from one player to another, it would look like this: 1/101.

I highlighted the matches where the Jääskeläinen’s passing combination to the starting forward was either first (yellow) or second (orange), which came out to be 20 of West Ham’s 38 matches, just over half. You’ll also notice there are two games where the passing combination ranked third and one game where it rank fourth. I then made a similar chart for the opposing keeper in each of West Ham’s matches, as you’ll see below.

The two red cells, Sunderland (H) and Fulham (A) are the two matches in which the opposing keeper hit long balls to their starting centre forward more than Jääskeläinen. The orange cell, Stoke (H), shows a match in which Begovic hit the same number of long balls toward Crouch as Jääskeläinen did to Carroll. You’ll also notice that the first cell in red, where Fletcher is the target on 11 of Mignolet’s passes, is the only match of the 38 where West Ham’s opposition had their passing combination between goalkeeper and centre forward in double-digits. West Ham entered double digits 11 times in their 38 matches.



Long Ball Style of Play, So What?

First off, I only have data available from Allardyce’s Blackburn Rovers of 2008/2009, 2009/2010, and 2010/2011, the latter in which he was sacked. In each of those seasons though, Allardyce’s team attempted more long balls compared to their total attempted passes than the league average. In 2008/2009, the league average was 15.59%, Blackburn: 17.17%. 2009/2010, the league average: 15.82%,18.68%. 2010/2011, league average: 14.61%, Blackburn: 18.37%.

Part of David Gold’s statement talked about how they want to be a successful football club and that want to aim for top 10 finishes in the next two years and then 'kick on from there.’ Here’s something of a problem for Gold’s ambitions though, over the last five seasons, 2012/2013 included, only 10 teams out of 100 have finished in the top 10 while having their attempted long ball to total attempted passes percentage above the league average.

Aston Villa were able to achieve a 6th place finish in 2008/2009 despite being just about 2% points over the league average. The following year, they achieved another 6th place finish, this time coming in just below the league average. In 2009/2010, Birmingham and Tottenham both achieved top 10 finishes while being above the league average. The following year, they both failed to match or top their finish, with Birmingham again being above the league average and in turn getting relegated. Tottenham finished 5th, but their long ball percentage was below the league average.

The 2010/2011 season saw both Everton and Sunderland above the league average (though there was a significant drop from 15.82% to 14.61% and both would have been below the previous year’s average). Everton finished in 7th, between Liverpool and Fulham, both of whom were more than two points below the league average, while Sunderland place 10th. Everton again finished 7th the following year and were again over the league average (though only by .27%), which dropped for the second consecutive year. Newcastle surprised many by finishing 5th, with a long ball percentage of 16.02%, well over 2.5% over the league average, but as we saw in the following campaign, Newcastle dropped all the way to 16th and were again above the league average.

Everton maintained their status as the most successful long ball side as they again were above the league average, but maintained their position in the top 10, this time coming in 6th, the first time from the top 10 improved their place while being over the league average. West Brom Albion had a very promising start to the season and eventually finished 8th, being just above the league average. West Ham United and Sam Allardyce finished 10th, almost being 3% points above the league average of long balls.

To sum that all up, only one side, Everton, has gotten into the top 10 in consecutive years while playing a higher than average percentage of their passes as long balls. Everton are also the only side to improve upon their place, 7th to 6th, the following year, while still being above the league average. So for David Gold, Sam Allardyce, and West Ham, this could be a bit of a worry as they look to improve upon their 10th place finish.

In the last three years, the league average of passes being long ball passes has dropped just about 1% point. If this trend were to continue, and Allardyce and West Ham maintained their style of play from the 2012/2013 season at 15.12% of their passes being long balls, they would be the first side to be four percentage points about the league average.

For the optimistic supporters, however, West Ham recorded the highest difference between their percentage and the league average, while still finishing in the top 10, in the last five years of the Premier League. So the possibility that they could continue their success could be conceivable.