As Ora Houston prepares to leave behind her District 1 seat, a strong early showing by a Hispanic candidate raised possibility that council might no longer include a black representative.

Four years ago, Ora Houston became one of the first Austin City Council members elected under a system of geographic districts that included an “African-American opportunity district.”

Now, as Houston prepares to leave office and a bevy of candidates competes to replace her, a strong early showing by a Hispanic woman raises the possibility that the council might no longer include a black representative.

Among the seven candidates seeking to replace Houston, three are widely considered to be the front-runners: former Travis County Democratic Party Chairman Vincent Harding, small-business consultant Natasha Harper-Madison and Mariana Salazar, a former advocate for homeless people. Lewis Conway Jr., a Grassroots Leadership organizer, also has drawn support in some corners in the wake of his challenge to Texas’ ban on felons holding public office.

The Venezuelan-born Salazar is the only non-African-American among the four. She moved to the U.S. at 18 to attend college, became a citizen after marrying a Navy corpsman and, until recently, worked as director of the Ending Community Homelessness Coalition. If elected, it appears she would be the first immigrant on the City Council since Margret Hofmann, a German refugee, in the mid-1970s.

In recent campaign posts, Salazar has touted that she led a districtwide poll conducted by the Austin Police Association. The association would not release its poll to the American-Statesman or discuss its findings or methodology. Salazar says a representative of the police union told her she topped the poll.

Harding said in an interview that his campaign also recently did a poll, but he likewise declined to share details about it.

Regardless, Salazar’s campaign has caught the eye of local NAACP President Nelson Linder. Last week, Linder said he suspects Salazar will be one of two candidates in a Dec. 11 runoff for the District 1 seat. That will be the time to mobilize black voters, he said.

“We have attrition by population, and one of my concerns is that we have a lot of African-American candidates running and it splits their support,” Linder said. “In the runoff, we’re going to consolidate the vote and win the election. Of course, right now we’re concerned that our seat is under attack.”

Houston has endorsed Harding for the seat. She did not return phone calls to discuss the dynamics of the race.

The lesser-known District 1 candidates include grant monitor Reedy Spigner, former child actor Mitrah Avini and write-in candidate Misael Ramos.

Before 2015, Austin had a seven-seat City Council, with all seats elected at-large. For decades, the city recognized a nonbinding “gentlemen’s agreement,” struck by two white men in the 1970s, that reserved one seat on the council for a Hispanic member and another for an African-American.

The system, enforced through the endorsements and donations of the city’s powerful political groups, ensured minority representation on the council, but essentially restricted it to only two seats. The approach also ensured that candidates for those seats received the blessing of the white political establishment.

The move to the 10-1 system in advance of the 2014 election allowed for more diversity on the council with the creation of 10 geographic districts. They included Houston’s District 1, which was then 28 percent African-American, and three districts where the population was more than 60 percent Hispanic. The seats in those districts are now held by Greg Casar, Sabino “Pio” Renteria and Delia Garza, who are Hispanic.

Austin demographics are changing, though, and the percentage of African-Americans, both in District 1 and citywide, is shrinking. It’s unclear exactly what the demographic breakdown of the district is now, said city demographer Ryan Robinson, but it's virtually certain that the percentage of black residents has declined.

“Even when they drew (District 1), there were more Hispanics than African-Americans, but, of course, it’s the non-Hispanic whites that are skyrocketing,” Robinson said.

Harper-Madison likes to note that, of 29 candidates running for six city seats, she is the only black woman, saying, “This is a problem, y’all.”

“I hate to say we need to uphold the vestiges of the gentlemen’s agreement, but until we have a chance to win in other districts, we have to uphold it,” Harper-Madison said. “What are the implications of not having black representation at City Hall?”

Harding is optimistic about his and others' political chances.



“While it may be more challenging for an African-American to run for other (City Council) seats, it is not impossible,” he said. “I am of the opinion we will see African-Americans run for other seats, maybe even the mayor’s seat. And I think District 1 will stay African-American for the near future.”

Salazar called the entire district disenfranchised.

"I recognize the diversity, and I recognize that blacks have had it even harder than other populations," she said. "I'm really trying to acknowledge that, but let people know ... I'm running for everybody."

Austin political pollster Mark Littlefield said turnout for the Nov. 6 election is expected to be heavy, and diverse, but it’s difficult to predict which voters will make it all the way to the City Council races at the end of the ballot. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote and the District 1 race goes to a runoff — a likely scenario — voter turnout will drop significantly, and those voting will be older and more politically engaged, he said.

“Younger voters are excited about (President Donald) Trump and Beto (O'Rourke) and everything and they’re going to come out, but for a December runoff, they’re not going to make it,” Littlefield said. “I think (a runoff) helps an African-American candidate. … It’s not African-American voters who select African-American candidates; it is a coalition of Anglo and African-American voters.”

The NAACP doesn’t endorse candidates as an organization, but Linder is personally supporting Harding — and is working to get others influential in local politics to rally around him as a consensus candidate. That’s more of a challenge with so many newcomers in the district and no guarantee of ultimately winning the seat.

“I remind folks that we no longer have an at-large system,” Linder said. “We need to make sure we unify and put forward the best possible candidate. … We are going to retain African-American representation for District 1, as we should.”