The latest data change in Wuhan is significant, and puts China’s nationwide death toll at 4,636. But the count remains low compared to other nations – seven countries, including the US and UK, have far more fatalities. Italy has recorded the highest number of deaths in the world at more than 22,000 people.

"The new figures are still not credible," says Steve Tsang, director of SOAS China Institute. "The Wuhan death toll is out of line with that in countries where Covid-19 took hold, and it is still out of line with likely excess death in the city."

Five million people left Wuhan left the city before lockdown measures were implemented, meaning the death toll would be 40 per cent lower than if the city was at full occupancy. However, Mr Tsang says that the monthly death rate is still lower than would be expected in a city of six million, even with the revised numbers.

"The statistics have been changed most probably because the old figures were so ridiculous that even the Communist Party Propaganda Department knows it was unsustainable. Hence, a revision to a level less incredible, but one that will still present the Party under Xi as having done a vastly better job that Western democratic governments."

However, other countries are also adjusting their numbers. Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong says: “That happens everywhere – we’ve seen that other countries have been revising their numbers from time to time.”

“I think we still don’t know the full picture of mild infections in Wuhan, because in the early stages of the epidemic, the testing was focused on more severe cases,” he added.

Experts say a new round of testing beginning in Wuhan, which will seek to determine how many people developed antibodies, or effective immunity against the virus, is likely to give a much better picture of infection rates.x

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