PPP: Iowa wide open for GOP in 2016

The Republican Party has no front-runner for the 2016 Iowa caucuses, with even Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan scarcely drawing double-digit support in a new Public Policy Polling survey of the contest.

The poll, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, found former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as the nominal leader of the pack, taking 15 percent of the vote in a nine-candidate field.

But that was only 3 points better than Ryan, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, each of whom took 12 percent. Bush had 11 percent, followed by Rick Santorum at 10 percent and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at 9 percent.

Bringing up the rear were Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 5 percent and Sarah Palin at 4 percent.

It’s hard to imagine a less-defined, more fluid field than that. Huckabee manages to come out slightly ahead in large part because of his support among evangelicals — 20 percent choose him as their favorite — but only by a hair.

Voters who identify themselves as tea party members are just as widely split, with Christie coming in first at 18 percent, followed by Rubio at 14 percent and Ryan at 11 percent.

The results reveal significant uncertainty about where the GOP should go from here, with perhaps a real opening for a charismatic, dominant candidate who hasn’t emerged yet. The best-known national figures who were tested in the poll are Bush and Ryan, but neither of them recorded a particularly impressive figure at the outset.

Two Republicans not tested in the poll, but viewed as potential candidates, are Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. There’s no reason to believe that either would jump to an early lead against their fellow Republicans.

You can see the full survey results here; the poll tested 470 Iowa Republicans on Nov. 3 and 4.