Midfielder Kaylyn Kyle says the hosts have the best collective spirit in the world but results have been mixed since winning bronze at the Olympics

'As a whole, we're the best': can Canada's women really win the World Cup?

The Canada coach, John Herdman, knows his team is not a favorite to win the Women’s World Cup.

The reality is that Canada has never been a soccer hotbed that produces talent on a large scale. Most Canadians watch ice hockey or gridiron. At the last Women’s World Cup, before Herdman was coach, Canada finished with the worst record in the entire tournament.

And yet, expectations could not be higher as Canada hosts the Women’s World Cup kicking off Saturday. For perhaps the first time, Canadians will be watching a Women’s World Cup on large scale, expecting their team to advance deep into the tournament. Winning it considered at least a possibility.

“There are five teams that people do expect to win this tournament,” Herdman told the Guardian. “Canada might not be in the five, but we’re definitely in the top 10 and that gives us an outside chance.”

The source of Canada’s optimism? The 2012 Olympics in London. They won a bronze medal, the country’s first in soccer. But more importantly, they outplayed USA in the semifinals and came away looking unlucky, but not like the worse team.

It’s impossible to talk about Canada’s road to the World Cup this summer without looking back to that match. It was an instant classic filled with controversy, including brutal physical jabs and some peculiar refereeing decisions that captain Christine Sinclair would be suspended for criticizing. The Canadian women took the lead three separate times and didn’t fall behind until the 123rd minute, losing 4-3 in extra time.

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For American fans, it was thrilling. For Canadian fans, it was heartbreak. And it’s the reason the stakes are so high at this World Cup.

“If I’m being completely honest, pre-Olympics I don’t think Canada knew who the Canadian women’s national soccer team was,” midfielder Kaylyn Kyle tells the Guardian, who has been with the team since 2008. “We had some fans here and there, but the turning point was the Canada-USA game. We really won the hearts of Canadians and, I think, fans around the world.”

Crowds at Canada’s home games have grown since then and expectations are high for Canada to pull off a successful tournament. Ticket sales have already surpassed the total for the 2011 tournament in Germany, which had around 846,000 tickets sold. The Canadian Soccer Association has set a goal of 1.5 million.

There is a caveat to this optimism: on the field, the Canadians haven’t held on to the momentum from the Olympics. Heading into this World Cup, their results have been mixed.

Canada have had promising recent results, drawing with the US and beating England in their final pre-World Cup friendly – confidence-boosting performances against two teams that have given them trouble in the past. But the Canadians have also struggled against World Cup-bound Nigeria and France recently, getting shut out by both teams.

Ups and downs are all part of the preparation that will make Canada ready, Herdman said. “The team has been on this journey together for three years now post-Olympics. Every week, every day, every month, every year, we’ve had something to go towards – we’ve had goals and the girls have just kept ticking boxes.”

“So, this is the big question now: is the team ready? Readiness is always a product of the preparation you’ve put in, and this group has prepared themselves.”

The Canadians need to prove that 2012 wasn’t a one-off, but that is no easy task. More countries are putting resources into their programs, but the women’s game is still one where a small elite group sits at the top jostling for position while everyone else plays catch up.

The US, Germany, France, Japan and Brazil are all seeded, and undisputed heavyweights. Canada, also seeded as host, falls into a second tier of teams that could make a surprise run – but a lot of things may need to go their way.

Part of that will hinge on the performance of a player like Sinclair. Soft-spoken and not one for the limelight, she’s a superstar in women’s soccer for the purest of reasons: She scores a lot of goals. To wit, she scored every goal for Canada in that famous USA-Canada Olympic match.

But if one marquee player were enough to win a World Cup, five-time Fifa Player of the Year Marta would’ve won one for Brazil by now. Canada has to bank on more than that. Canada will need every player to perform.

“Player for player, if we’re up against a top team, we’re not the best team in the world,” Kyle said. “But as a collective whole and as a group of 23, I think we are the best team in the world. We are one of the most connected teams in the world and throughout a seven-game tournament, that’s going to show.”

Such lofty ambitions of winning a World Cup are a stunning turnaround from Canada’s last attempt. In a humiliating 2011 showing, the Canucks lost every match of the group stage, scoring just one goal and allowing seven in three games. Carolina Morace quickly resigned as coach and Herdman came on board.

Based on their dismal World Cup, no one expected much from Canada the following year in the Olympics. They shocked everyone and left London with bronze medals. They think they can do it again and do it better – and home turf is just the place to do it.

Canada’s geography presents unique challenges to teams. This World Cup marks the first time any major sporting event will span five time zones. It’s also the first major international tournament Canada will host on both its coasts. USA’s schedule provides an example of what some teams will face: they play their final group game in Vancouver against Nigeria, but if they come second in their group, their very next game will be in Moncton, on the opposite coast, a six-hour flight away. To compare it to the last Women’s World Cup: Germany is smaller than all but three of Canada’s 13 provinces and territories.

Home field advantage could help Canada push through a difficult group that includes second-tier wildcards New Zealand and Holland. Herdman certainly thinks playing in their own back yard will help his team.

“We know our country better than anyone else,” Herdman said. “We understand what these stadiums are going to look and feel like because we’ve prepared – we’ve played in these stadiums with packed attendances, we lived in the hotels. It’s our country. That’s what we expect to the X factor that takes us onto the podium.”