If we are going to “Shift” London, then we need to shift our expectations about what we can accomplish together.

Thursday’s city council debate on rapid transit will come down to two options: a very good bus rapid transit network or an excellent hybrid network of light rail and bus rapid transit. The business case for each is some of the strongest in Ontario.

Council made a smart decision in November when we voted 15-0 for the hybrid LRT-BRT network. Since then, opponents of the idea have steadily chipped away at the case for LRT on the higher ridership northeast line, which would connect major trip generators such as Fanshawe College, Old East Village, downtown, St. Joseph’s hospital, Western University and Masonville Place.

It’s typical of the risk-averse, play-it-safe segment of our city’s establishment. Skepticism and criticism are useful, but taken too far they turn into paralyzing cynicism, unwillingness to take meaningful risks and a lack of confidence.

We know investing in transit infrastructure that is competitive with car travel in convenience and travel times will benefit Londoners who cannot afford a car and allow folks who would prefer not to own one to save money.

Using CAA’s cost estimates for a compact car, and an estimate of 237,000 vehicles, the total private cost of car ownership in London is $2.1 billion a year. On top of that private expenditure are the public costs of expanding our road network and other municipal services to accommodate our growing city. We cannot afford to grow over the next 30 years like we have over the past 30 years, and rapid transit is fundamental to building the more compact, affordable city envisioned in the London Plan.

On virtually all metrics in the business case, LRT on the northeast line outperforms BRT: lower operating costs, higher ridership and revenues, better air quality and safety benefits, more greenhouse gases abated, higher land values and $210 million more in short-term GDP gains. LRT also provides a smoother, quieter ride and contributes to a more modern, urban city image that appeals to younger generations.

The hybrid trails full BRT?on one important metric, the benefit-cost ratio — at ?1.1 vs. 1.6. But our LRT-BRT ratio of 1.1 ranks well compared to other rapid transit projects that have been funded: Waterloo Region LRT 0.75, Hamilton LRT 1.1 and York region BRT 0.9 — three municipalities with lower existing transit ridership than London. It also compares favourably to Toronto projects such as the Crosstown LRT (0.52), Finch West and Sheppard East LRT (0.7) and the Yonge North subway extension (0.8).

But are we asking for too much money? To build an LRT-BRT network, we would need roughly $2,000 per capita in some combination from the provincial and federal governments. This is in line with combined provincial and federal investments in recent transit projects in Mississauga ($1,855), York Region ($2,233) and Hamilton ($2,067), is more than Waterloo ($1,333), and less than Toronto ($3,408) and Ottawa ($3,830).

Now that we have a federal government committed to invest $20 billion over 10 years in public transit, and a provincial commitment of $15 billion for infrastructure outside of the GTHA, we need to seize this once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform how we move in our city and how our city grows.

The hybrid LRT-BRT network will not happen without the political courage to aim high. Thursday, I hope my fellow councillors will be bold enough to ask the provincial and federal governments to join us in making an $880-million investment in London that will pay dividends for decades to come.