Calum MacLeod

USA TODAY

BEIJING — The wait continues — and the speculation mounts — after North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un failed to show up Friday for a key political anniversary in Pyongyang.

Kim has not been seen in public since Sept. 3, sparking rumors of a serious illness or even a coup in the highly secretive state whose nuclear ambitions rattle the region.

In Seoul, a South Korean official played down the significance of Kim's absence.

"It seems that Kim Jong Un's rule is in normal operation," Lim Byeong-cheol, spokesman for the south's unification ministry, told a press briefing Friday, according to the Yonhap news agency. He cited the North's dispatch of a top-level party-military delegation to the south last week, during which a senior figure conveyed Kim's greetings to South Korean President Park Geun-hye.

Kim's absence comes as North and South Korea traded fire Friday after the North shot at a South Korean propaganda balloon, according the Associated Press.

Although prolonged absences by North Korean leaders are not uncommon, this marks the longest such disappearance since Kim became Supreme Leader following the death of his father Kim Jong Il in 2011. The most recent television footage showed Kim, thought to be 30 or 31, limping heavily.

State media, in a rare comment on the ruling dynasty's personal matters, later said Kim was suffering from unspecified "discomfort." Gout seems a contender, given Kim's reported love of rich foods and alcohol, but the Reuters news agency, quoting an unnamed source Friday, said Kim hurt his leg, required 100 days to recover, and remained in full control.

Kim was injured when he joined generals he had ordered to perform physical drills, the source said. North Korea's state-run television is usually dominated by propaganda footage of Kim providing "on-the-spot guidance" to people at farms, factories, schools and seemingly in every other aspect of North Korean life.

Despite the absence of new material since Sept. 3, Kim remains front and center as the third generation of the ruling family's personality cult, an all-pervasive phenomenon that effectively serves as the state religion.

"Dear comrade Kim Jong Un is the symbol of dignity and invincibility of the Workers' Party and the banner of all victories and glory," said an editorial Friday in the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, a mouthpiece of the ruling party, Reuters reported.

If healthy, Kim would have been the central figure at events marking Party Foundation Day, Oct. 10. This year, the 69th anniversary, carries less significance and symbolism than the 70th in 2015, but Kim did attend commemorative activities on this date for the past two years, including a midnight ritual at the palace housing the embalmed bodies of his father and grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the regime founder and "Eternal President."

In a sign of global interest in Kim's whereabouts, China's state news agency Xinhua, one of the few foreign media outlets stationed in Pyongyang, dispatched a journalist to stake out the palace late Thursday, but found no police or security guards nearby that would suggest a Kim visit.

Xinhua and other Chinese media would not be permitted to report such speculation about their own Communist Party leaders, but have taken a sometimes critical view of Kim's belligerent behavior, despite Beijing being North Korea's only significant ally.

By late Friday morning local time, North Korean state media had not reported any Kim visit to Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, although it remained possible that reports later Friday could feature Kim's attendance at other anniversary events.

Some analysts cautioned that a coup remained unlikely.

"Despite his extended absence, available evidence suggests Kim is still alive and still in power," Korea analyst John G. Grisafi wrote on the NKNews website Friday. "The amount of influence and power held by officials certainly varies and Kim, who is young and inexperienced, is not likely to be calling all the shots himself."

"However, North Korea's government is using a dynastic system and having a member of the Kim family — or the "Paektu bloodline" — in the top spot is critical to maintaining this system," wrote Grisafi. "Kim may need his advisers and officials, but they need him too."