Previous update: July 29, 2017

We’re farther into the season now and will soon be coming up on a lot of v1s, so time for a review of Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates again.

Already Released



Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series 7,690 7,690 2017/07/26 -44 2017/05/02 61 Katsugeki/Touken Ranbu 2,770 2,770 2017/08/23 -16 2017/06/02 29 Saiyuuki Reload Blast 2,149 2,149 2017/08/23 -16 2017/06/01 22 Jigoku Shoujo: Yoi no Togi

Upcoming Releases



Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series 465 511 2017/09/13 5 2017/06/26 6 Nana Maru San Batsu 325 403 2017/09/20 12 2017/07/03 5 Keppeki Danshi! Aoyama-kun 877 1,214 2017/09/20 12 2017/07/12 16 Isekai wa Smartphone to Tomo ni. 127 200 2017/09/20 12 2017/07/07 2 Konbini Kareshi 1,627 2,100 2017/09/22 14 2017/07/04 25 Isekai Shokudou 1,290 1,620 2017/09/22 14 2017/07/09 22 Hitorijime My Hero 3,078 4,045 2017/09/27 19 2017/06/19 39 New Game!! 3,479 6,161 2017/09/27 19 2017/07/03 54 Princess Principal 1,651 2,175 2017/09/27 19 2017/06/23 22 Hajimete no Gal 225 316 2017/09/27 19 2017/07/07 4 Vatican Kiseki Chousakan * 11,051 28,148 2017/09/27 19 2017/07/03 170 Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ 1,123 1,987 2017/09/28 20 2017/07/20 23 Gamers 230 340 2017/09/29 21 2017/07/02 3 Centaur no Nayami 512 678 2017/09/29 21 2017/06/30 8 Netsuzou Trap 88 122 2017/09/29 21 2017/07/07 1 Jikan no Shihaisha 1,251 1,764 2017/10/03 25 2017/06/25 17 Tenshi no 3P! 93 135 2017/10/04 26 2017/07/08 2 18if 621 969 2017/10/04 26 2017/06/26 9 Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e 306 427 2017/10/04 26 2017/07/18 6 Koi to Uso 443 721 2017/10/11 33 2017/07/14 8 Action Heroine Cheer Fruits 856 1,474 2017/10/13 35 2017/07/02 13 Kakegurui 942 1,515 2017/10/25 47 2017/07/07 15 Made in Abyss * 666 1,317 2017/10/25 47 2017/07/12 12 Mahoujin Guru Guru 78 137 2017/10/25 47 2017/07/07 1 Shoukoku no Altair * 1,136 2,010 2017/10/27 49 2017/06/14 14 Knight's & Magic * 94 168 2017/10/27 49 2017/07/12 2 Clione no Akari 102 248 2017/11/22 75 2017/07/27 2 Dive!! 327 544 2017/11/22 75 2017/07/13 6 Battle Girl High School * 405 897 2017/11/24 77 2017/06/22 5 Hina Logi: From Luck & Logic 823 1,574 2017/11/24 77 2017/07/05 13 Teekyuu season 9 362 860 2017/11/29 82 2017/07/09 6 Ballroom e Youkoso 2,177 5,282 2017/12/27 110 2017/07/28 54 Fate/Apocrypha * 16,521 25,918 2017/10/25 47 2017/08/12 661 Owarimonogatari Season 2

Solicited Too Recently, no estimate yet



Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series

* These series fall under Stalker’s high price penalty, and will probably be underestimated more than they normally would. Stalker has gotten more aggressive with its high price MSRP penalties. It now extends them all the way down to ¥10k and we’ve seen before that applying the full penalty to sub-¥20k releases usually results in overestimation, sometimes quite significant.

The above columns show, in order

• Stalker current wk1 points as of August 07, 9AM JST

• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of August 07, 9AM JST

• Release Date

• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)

• Solicitation Date

• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))

• Show title

Comments

Points per day vs Days to release

Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses

I included Owarimonogatari Season 2 this time. Since last time, the main points of this season have been:

• Fate/Apocrypha looking quite weak for a Fate series, even if it isn’t entirely mainline like Stay/UBW/Zero. While these are the penalized numbers, even the unpenalized estimate is only 9,383.

• Tourabu underperforming Hanamaru and getting no event ticket boost[???] but still quite possibly being the top-selling full-cour show this season, depending on Symphogear’s event tickets.

• Princess Principal makes a late break from mediocre to possibly quite solid sales; it’s the only show to accomplish that this season.

• Symphogear finally soliciting the event ticket we knew had to be coming. It was solicited less than a week ago so right now its estimate is pretty goofed up. In another week or so it should settle down.

Note: For now I’m not including the Owarimonogatari 2 special, but I’d put it at #1-2 since it’ll presumably do the standard Monogatari ~25k.

01. Owarimonogatari Season 2

02. Katsugeki! Touken Ranbu

03. Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ

04. Fate/Apocrypha

05. Princess Principal

06. New Game!!

07. Knight’s & Magic

08. Saiyuuki Reload Burst

09. ??

10. ??

Honestly, there aren’t even two more shows worth putting on the list. Heck, everything from New Game onward is probably ending up with a sub-4k average.