Biden spars with Trump in Nevada, Booker and Harris are in South Carolina. The field is already crowded

It’s a crisp fall weekend and more than a half-dozen prominent Democrats are in states that hold early primaries. Former vice-president Joe Biden is in Nevada. Two senators, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, are in South Carolina. The former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe is in New Hampshire and Colorado governor John Hickenlooper is in Iowa. It is October 2018. The 2020 presidential campaign is on.

John James: ‘Battle-tested, ready to lead’ … and a black American for Trump Read more

With the exception of Maryland congressman John Delaney, no one has announced their candidacy. Those traveling to states with early primaries insist they are there to aid down-ballot candidates in the midterm elections. They are not campaigning. At least, not openly.

Some have only dipped their toes into the water. Booker, for example, made a much-vaunted first trip to Iowa earlier in the month. Others, like Jeff Merkley, have been hitting the trail. This year the Oregon senator, an ardent progressive, has made 10 trips to the states that vote first: six to Iowa, four to New Hampshire.

Behind the scenes, potential candidates are dispatching staffers to build networks, talk to potential campaign officials and woo political power players. After the midterms, the expectation is that candidates will scramble to announce campaigns. Timelines will vary but dark-horse candidates will be more likely to announce earlier.

One key question for potential candidates will be how much money they can raise, particularly in a splintered field. There have been record-breaking hauls among Democratic candidates for Congress in 2018 but there is not the expectation that this will translate across the field for 2020.

Sign up for the new US morning briefing

The former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley is considering a run. He told the Guardian a key part of his decision would lie in figuring out if he will have the fundraising infrastructure “to run a more successful race” than he did in 2016.

Other candidates won’t have such worries. New York senator Kirsten Gillibrand already has more than $10m in her Senate war chest. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has more than $15m.

One avenue available to candidates will be Super Pacs, fundraising groups that can work without limit so long as they do not co-ordinate with their candidate or party. In the 2016 Democratic primary, outside money did not play a significant role: Bernie Sanders did not have a significant outside group supporting him while the pro-Clinton group Priorities USA spent money only when Sanders posed the biggest threat. It mostly held its fire for the general election.

We’re going end up exactly where we wanted to be John Delaney

But it is likely that the 2020 race will look more like Republican primaries since 2010, when the Citizens United supreme court decision allowed for the creation of Super Pacs. One strategist close to a potential candidate noted that with Democrats likely to face fierce attacks from Donald Trump and Republicans, outside money will be a necessary evil.

“Until we change campaign finance laws and get rid of Super Pacs, unilateral disarmament is not just the way to go,” the strategist said. “Certain people get hit because of that but it seems a major tying of hands behind our back.”

‘A battle of direction’

Delaney, the one candidate who has already declared, does not have this problem. A self-funding former businessman, a moderate from Maryland, he has been running for president for a year. He told the Guardian his campaign had succeeded in its goal so far: to drive name identification with Iowa caucus-goers up to 75%.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Michael Avenatti attends the Iowa Democratic Wing Ding in Clear Lake, in August. Photograph: STRINGER/Reuters

“We’re going end up exactly where we wanted to be,” he said, adding that by the end of the year his campaign would have 25 people working full-time in Iowa alone, hoping to reach 100 by the middle of next year.

Delaney is not just the most centrist of any potential Democratic candidate. He also stands on one side of another argument that will define the race, in terms of the tactical approach to Trump. On the stump, Delaney repeatedly invokes bipartisanship.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Michael Avenatti, who has already taken a shot at Delaney on Twitter. The California trial lawyer, who came to fame through his representation of the adult film star Stormy Daniels in her battles with Trump, has campaigned for Democrats and is starting to build a political organization.

My strong suit by far will be the debates because that’s my arena, that’s what I do Michael Avenatti

Avenatti, who is contemplating a bid, told the Guardian he viewed the campaign as “a battle of the direction of the party”.

“A lot of people that think the way to beat Trump is by being just the opposite,” he said. “Kinder, gentler, soft, message of hope, things of that nature – and I’m all for those things. But that’s not going to get it done against this guy.”

Avenatti argued that “smashmouth tactics” would be needed.

“A number of these individuals that I am hearing are going to run,” he said, “I think they would make an exceptional president, a better president than I would. But they have no shot at beating Trump if the economy stays where it is.”

Donald Trump and Joe Biden exchange blows in Nevada as midterms loom Read more

Avenatti noted that he is new to campaigning and is trying to learn basic skills of the trade, such as retail politicking and speechmaking. But he was confident in one are: debating.

“My strong suit by far will be the debates because that’s my arena, that’s what I do, he said. “I don’t debate per se but I’m a trial lawyer, that’s going to be my home court.”

In 2016, Democrats were criticized for holding only a few debates. But Republicans, with an unwieldy field, perhaps held too many. Many in the party said staging a main event and an “undercard” debate unfairly diminished some candidates and created a spectacle that elevated Trump.

Democrats may not have much time to set the rules. In the 2008 election, the last time the party’s primary was this competitive, the first debate was in April 2007.