Artemi Panarin is the best skater on the Blue Jackets. His 82 points on the season were 25 more than Seth Jones, who finished second on the team, and 34 more than the next forward on the squad. He led the team in goals with 27 and assists with 55. He also led the team with a 56.7 shot-attempt percentage. So yeah, this guy is good. If you read our friends over at Japers Rink earlier this week week, you know that there isn’t an obvious plan or match-up to try to shut down the Jackets star forward.

So, that begs the question: what should the Caps do to try to shut down Panarin?

As linked to above, Japers touched on how poorly the Caps contained Panarin this season. More to that point, to get a feel for how each Caps line performed against him, here’s each of the Caps’ centers vs him this season:

Caps Skater Time on ice Shot difference vs Panarin Goal difference vs Panarin Backstrom 18:58 -19 -3 Kuznetsov 17:52 -5 0 Eller 15:45 -7 0 Beagle 19:58 -15 0

Well, that’s not great. How about the defensive pairs? We’ll limit it to just two since the pairings get a little muddy after that and, really, we all know the third pair against Panarin is a thing the Caps will try to avoid.

Caps Skater Time on ice Shot difference vs Panarin Goal difference vs Panarin Orlov 42:12 -20 -1 Carlson 18:04 -12 -1

There’s some more terrible options for Barry Trotz to consider!

I should note that, in these obviously small samples, score effects played a part. The Caps took early leads in some of the tilts against the Jackets this season. But Panarin is a world-class talent regardless.

But, this isn’t a problem unique to the Caps. Panarin terrorized defenses all over the league this season. And his numbers aren’t propped up by unsustainable percentages, as the team scores 2.7 goals per 60 when he’s on the ice, with an expected-goals-for of 2.8 per 60.

In the 5-on-5 article, I talked about how the Caps could be done in by their inability to limit chances around the net. After all, they were one of the worst teams in the league in this regard during the regular season, so Philipp Grubauer will have to be excellent if that continues. But hey, surely that won’t be as much of a concern versus a player like Panarin, because small, skilled players like him are soft and stick to the perimeter, right?

Or not.

So, Panarin is a dominant forward and the Caps, like many teams, haven’t had an answer for him in their four games against CBJ this season. Therefore, given that no strategy has worked, and some of the numbers may be colored by small sample size and score effects, the Caps should plan to stop Panarin with their usual Plan A for the other team’s best forward(s).

According to Corsica, the Caps had eight different forward trios skate 100-plus minutes together at 5-on-5 this season. The Caps second line of Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie was the best of this bunch defensively. They allowed the fewest shot attempts against (43.6 per 60), the second fewest goals against (1.2 per 60), and the fewest expected goals against (1.8 per 60). They did all of this in a somewhat defensive role, as well, starting 25 percent of their shifts in the defensive zone, fourth among the eight trios. This was the most defensive-heavy deployment Nick Backstrom and TJ Oshie were given out of any trio they were a part of this season. And it worked.

Defensively, the obvious choice is Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen because, really, what other choice does Trotz have?

If there was a Good Plan book on how to tactically stop Panarin, he wouldn’t have posted 82 points this season. Given that he stands at 5′ 11″ and 170 lbs, and the fact that many analysts think the way to win a playoff series is to be more physical than the other team, you’ll likely hear people call for the Caps to punish Panarin physically. Call it a hunch, but if this was a good enough plan to shut down Panarin, I don’t think he’d be a star in this league. The key to stopping Panarin will be to make him play without the puck as much as possible. This is another reason to play the Backstrom line against him, as the Caps second line is a strong puck possession line.

During the regular season, Panarin smoked the Backstrom line. But, as already mentioned, sample size and score effects can be part of the reason for this. The Caps best defensive line, by a mile, is the Backstrom line as currently constructed. Panarin is a great player, so the match-up might not work, but it will give the Caps the best chance at neutralizing the Jackets biggest offensive threat.

Stats via Corsica and Natural Stat Trick

Headline image: NHL.com