At first glance, the Louisville Cardinals look to have a strong case for potential inclusion into the 2016 College Football Playoff. They are 8-1, rank third in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and have a superstar in quarterback Lamar Jackson, the leading contender for the Heisman Trophy.

The FPI also indicates that the Cardinals have a 78.6 percent chance of winning their last three games, so it might seem like Louisville has a clear path to move from No. 6 in the CFP rankings to a coveted top four spot that would put them into the tournament.

As favorable as those elements seem for Louisville's CFP case, the reality is that the Cardinals have a paper-thin CFP argument that falls apart when compared with other contenders.