Another surprise special election win has Democrats bullish on Texas Will the 'blue wave' hit the Lone Star State in a big way?

AUSTIN -- Upsets in special elections in Wisconsin, Missouri and now Florida have Texas Democrats more convinced than ever that a "blue wave" is developing that will help them make gains in the Republican-dominated state legislature, including in Houston races.

"It's definitely a trend," said Rep. Cesar Blanco, an El Paso Democrat who is co-chair of the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee that focuses on growing the party's numbers.

Blanco said the big upsets are showing that the era of Donald Trump Republican politics has created an opening for Democrats to win races, even in places that Republicans are big favorites.

The proof?

In Florida on Tuesday night, Democrat Margaret Good defeated Republican James Buchanan by 8 percentage points in Florida House District 72 in Sarasota County. It's a district that Trump carried by 5 percentage points 15 months earlier.

That comes just one week after 27-year old Missouri Democrat Mike Revis narrowly defeated Republican David Linton in a special election in a District 97, just south of St. Louis. Trump in 2016 won 61 percent of the vote in that same district.

And a month earlier in Wisconsin's State Senate District 10, Democrat Patty Schachtner beat Republican Adam Jarchow in a special election for the state senate. Schachtner won 55 percent to 45 percent for Jarchow. Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton in that same district winning 55 percent of the vote.

Since Trump won the White House, Democrats have now won 36 state legislative districts that had been held by Republicans previously and that Trump carried in 2016, Blanco said.

The Republican Party of Texas has heard the hype before that Democrats are building a wave in in the Lone Star State. Party chairman James Dickey said he has no doubt Texas is a Republican state that will beat back Democrat challenges. But he made clear he's not taking anything for granted headed into 2018.

"We take every challenge seriously," Dickey said.

Some Texas Republicans have already been trying to warn their colleagues that there is reason for concern even before these last three races. After big Democratic wins in state legislative races in Virginia and New Jersey 2017, one of Gov. Greg Abbott's top political advisers was direct in a warning to fellow Republicans in a GOP memo.

"It would be easy for us to say Texas is not Virginia. It would be easy for us to say the Democrats in Texas aren't that well organized. However, that would be a huge mistake," adviser Dave Carney warned.

Tuesday's win in Republican-dominated Sarasota County in Florida was being closely watched by Democrats in Texas who have already have races they are targeting in 2018. Specifically Democrats are determined to challenge Republican State House members who are in districts that Hillary Clinton either beat Trump or was within a few percentage points of winning.

There are about 20 of those types of races on the Democratic target list and five in the Houston area on that list.

In state District 134, held by State Rep. Sarah Davis and State District 138 held by Rep. Dwayne Bohac, Clinton outpointed Trump in 2016. In three other districts -- state House 135 held by Rep. Gary Elkins, District 26 held by Rep. Rick Miller, and District 132 held by Rep. Mike Schofield -- Clinton was within 5 percentage points of winning.

GOP dominance

Republicans hold a dominating edge in both the Texas House and Senate. In the House, Republicans have 95 seats compared to 55 for Democrats. In the Texas Senate Republicans hold 20 seats to just 11 for Democrats.

But Democrats have been closing the gap over the years. In 2011, the Texas House had 101 Republicans and 49 Democrats. Since then, Democrats have gained 6 seats and have hopes for more in 2018.

Long time Florida political operative Steve Schale said what happened in Sarasota County on Tuesday says less about Florida as whole and more about the state of politics in other suburban areas around the nation, which could affect places like Houston's suburbs.

He said Democratic women voters that typically only show up for presidential elections showed up in massive numbers in Sarasota for special election. And even though more Republicans voted in the race than Democrats, the Democrat won, a sign there was a lot of crossover from GOP voters.

He said what happened in Missouri and Wisconsin was similar. In suburban areas with a lot of college educated voters a trend is forming, he said.

"It really shows that in places Donald Trump did very well, you're seeing real cracks," Schale said.

While Democrats cannot guarantee the growing list of victories will bring them wins in November in the Lone Star State, what it has brought them is a confidence boost early in the 2018 cycle.

"Tonight's election proves that no one is buying what the Trump Republican Party is selling," Texas Democratic Party spokesman Tariq Thowfeek said Tuesday night.

Jeremy Wallace writes about state politics and government for the Chronicle. Follow him on Twitter at @JeremySWallace.