Will Coronavirus Snowball Into A Pandemic? Some Optimistic It Can Be Avoided, But Others Aren’t So Sure

Scientists map out the potential paths the coronavirus outbreak could take. Many say that although it's likely to escalate, it could operate like other seasonal pathogens and die out when the hot and humid summer months hit. In other news, despite the fact that experts say surgical face masks don't do much to help healthy people, there's been a global rush on them. And where did this virus come from? It's looking like the culprit is bats.

The Associated Press: Experts Prepare But New China Virus Not A Pandemic Yet

Health authorities are preparing for a possible pandemic as they work to contain a respiratory illness in China that's caused by a new virus. Governments are limiting travel, isolating sick people and keeping travelers returning from the affected region under quarantine to watch for symptoms. In the United States, the scope and cost of the government response is increasing. U.S. health officials already have tapped into a $105 million rapid response fund and notified Congress that they may need $136 million more. (Johnson, 2/3)

CBS News: China Admits 'Shortcomings' As Coronavirus Infects More Than 20,500

Speaking Tuesday at WHO headquarters in Geneva, the organization's chief of infectious disease control, Dr. Sylvie Briand, said she and her colleagues were confident a global pandemic could still be avoided. "I'm not saying it's easy but we believe it can be done," Briand said. "Currently we are not in a pandemic; we are at the phase where it's an epidemic with multiple sites and we will try to establish the condition in each of these sites." A pandemic is defined as a disease with significant outbreaks in multiple regions or continents. The new coronavirus outbreak has been strongly concentrated in China's Hubei province, with less than 200 cases spread across about two dozen other countries. (CBS News, 2/4)

Stat: Experts Envision Two Scenarios If New Coronavirus Isn't Contained

Researchers are therefore asking what seems like a defeatist question but whose answer has huge implications for public policy: What will a world with endemic 2019-nCoV — circulating permanently in the human population — be like? “It’s not too soon to talk about this,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “We know that respiratory viruses are especially difficult to control, so I think it’s very possible that the current outbreak ends with the virus becoming endemic.” (Begley, 2/4)

The Wall Street Journal: Health Officials Err On Side Of Caution To Contain Viral Outbreak

Amid the fast-moving coronavirus outbreak emanating from China, companies, governments and schools are developing policies on the fly to try to halt the spread, creating a live global public-health experiment in containment. In the U.S., some businesses and universities have told people who had recently returned from the epicenter of the outbreak or from mainland China to stay home for as long as two weeks after returning. The U.S. government also said on Friday that it would deny entry to foreign citizens who had traveled to China within the past 14 days and imposed a maximum two-week quarantine on Americans returning from Hubei province where the outbreak started. (Abbott, 2/3)

Reuters: As Coronavirus Misinformation Spreads On Social Media, Facebook Removes Posts

Facebook Inc said it will take down misinformation about China's fast-spreading coronavirus, in a rare departure from its usual approach to dubious health content that is presenting a fresh challenge for social media companies. The coronavirus outbreak has stoked a wave of anti-China sentiment around the globe. Hoaxes have spread widely online, promoted by conspiracy theorists and exacerbated by a dearth of information from the cordoned-off zone around China's central city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began. (Paul, 2/3)

Los Angeles Times: Coronavirus Symptoms: What To Look For If You Think You Might Be Sick

Feeling sick? You may be wondering whether you could be infected with the new strain of coronavirus that has spread from China to more than two dozen countries and territories around the world. If you live in the United States, chances are good that it’s not the coronavirus that ails you. The Centers for Disease Control has confirmed 11 cases of novel coronavirus infection in the U.S., including six in California. The CDC also determined that 167 people who had symptoms consistent with the coronavirus were not actually infected. (Kaplan, 2/3)

The Washington Post: How Effective Are Face Masks Amid Coronavirus Concerns?

The new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is now responsible for 17,228 confirmed cases in China, reported by the country’s National Health Commission on Monday, and confirmed cases of the strain in 23 countries outside China, according to the World Health Organization. As with any outbreak, global travelers have the risk of exposure on their minds — as evidenced by masks on their faces. (Japhe, 2/3)

Reuters: China Virus Triggers Global Rush For Protective Masks

From South Korea to the Czech Republic, China's coronavirus outbreak has triggered a massive surge in demand for protective masks, with factories scrambling to fill orders and shops selling out. The virus, which first appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has killed 170 people and infected more than 8,000. It spreads through droplets from coughs and sneezes. (Lee and Zhang, 2/3)

The Hill: Vatican Sends More Than Half-Million Masks To China Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

The Vatican reportedly sent hundreds of thousands of masks to China amid the outbreak of a coronavirus that has infected thousands in China after spreading from the city of Wuhan. The Vatican confirmed it sent the masks to China in an email to the Catholics News Service on Monday. "The masks are destined to the provinces of Hubei, Zhejiang and Fujian," the press office told the news service. "It is a joint initiative of the Office of Papal Charities and the Chinese Church in Italy, in collaboration with the Vatican pharmacy." (Klar, 2/3)

Bloomberg: Where Did Coronavirus Come From? Why Bats May Be To Blame

Somewhere in China, perhaps in the southern Yunnan province, there’s a cave that may hold the mysterious origins of the deadly coronavirus that’s infected thousands, cut off millions of Chinese from their jobs and families and wreaked havoc in global financial markets.Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist at nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, would know. He and his team have suited up and ventured into caves all over China and the rest of world in search of bats and the pathogens they carry. “We go into caves,” said Daszak. “We don’t just walk in. We wear a full-body suit: breathing masks, gloves and all the correct equipment.” What he and other scientists around the globe are concluding is that the rapid spread of human settlements in once-remote regions have put people in ever-closer proximity to virus-carrying animals. (Langreth, 2/3)

Bloomberg: Fosun Pharma Jumps For Second Day After Unveiling Virus Test Kit

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co. said it has developed a testing kit for the deadly coronavirus, helping its shares to their biggest two-day gain in more than five months. The arm of Fosun Group, one of China’s largest conglomerates, is applying for National Medical Products Administration approval to provide the test equipment, it said Monday in a statement. The stock jumped 4% Tuesday, bringing its two-day gain to 5.5%, the most since Aug. 26. China’s health system is racing to treat patients and contain a virus that has infected more than 20,000 people and claimed 425 lives. As of last week, health authorities had approved six types of test kits for the virus, according to Xinhua News Agency. As the outbreak has spread, some health care providers have said they face shortages of tests. (Zhao, 2/4)

Stat: Quick Retraction Of Coronavirus Paper Was Good Moment For Science

Titled “Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag,” the paper claimed to find similarities between the new coronavirus and HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. The use of the word “uncanny” in the title, together with “unlikely to be fortuitous” in the abstract, led some to think that the authors were suggesting the virus had somehow been engineered by humans.The paper, from academic institutions in New Delhi, India, was critical and alarming, if true. Except that it wasn’t. The paper was almost immediately withdrawn, but not before plenty of handwringing from researchers who complained that the appearance of such shoddy work on a preprint server without vetting by peer reviewers is precisely why the hoary old model of science publishing is better at keeping junk science out of the literature. (Oransky and Marcus, 2/3)

This is part of the KHN Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription