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Polls-plus forecast Polls-only forecast Chance of winning, based on state polls only. Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges. Polls-plus forecast Polls-only forecast

There’s no forecast for Arizona yet because there isn’t enough recent polling.

Nonetheless, we’re tracking polling results as they come in, calculating a weighted polling average for each candidate.

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Arizona Democratic primary, we’ve collected five polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters pollster sample weight leader Clinton Sanders • Merrill Poll 300 LV 0.15 Clinton +26 50% 24% • MBQF 739 LV 0.03 Clinton +34 56% 22% • Behavior Research Center 186 RV 0.00 Clinton +28 47% 19% • Gravis Marketing 427 LV 0.00 Clinton +22 56% 34% • Public Policy Polling 268 LV 0.00 Clinton +42 58% 16%

*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.