Seven Labour MPs who backed Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal are set to lose their seats at the general election, according to a major polling model.

They are among 51 candidates in Jeremy Corbyn’s party that could lose their re-election bid, with new research pointing to the greatest Labour defeat since Michael Foot was leader in 1983.

The model, which accurately predicted a hung parliament in 2017, claims the party’s “Red Wall” is crumbling, with those at risk including deputy leader Tom Watson’s old West Bromwich East seat.

In total, 19 Labour MPs backed a second reading of the withdrawal agreement bill in October, including Laura Smith, Jon Cruddas, Caroline Flint, Melanie Onn, Jo Platt, Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth. The second reading passed the House of Commons, but the prime minister’s fast-tracked timetable was derailed, forcing him to request an extension to the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

These nine, representing Leave-voting constituencies, according to the MRP model, are on course to lose their seats at the general election in two weeks’ time to Conservative candidates.

General election: Facts and figures Show all 79 1 /79 General election: Facts and figures General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 opinion polls General Election 2019 opinion polls. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Estimated declaration time General Election 2019 estimated declaration times. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures 'Big beasts' at risk General Election 2019 'big beasts' at risk. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Smallest majorities at 2017 general election Smallest majorities at 2017 general election. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Turnout at UK general elections Turnout at UK general elections. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 poll of polls General Election 2019 poll of polls. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Vote shares at general elections since 1945 Vote shares at general elections since 1945. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in North-west England General election 2019 seats to watch in North-west England. See story POLITICS Election NorthWest. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Women MPs at UK general elections Women MPs at UK general elections. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 leaders' visits - Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn General Election 2019 leaders' visits. See story POLITICS Election Visits. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Boris Johnson's campaign visits so far General Election 2019: Boris Johnson's campaign visits so far. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Jeremy Corbyn's campaign visits so far General Election 2019: Jeremy Corbyn's campaign visits so far. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Pound v dollar Pound v dollar. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 opinion polls in Wales General Election 2019 opinion polls in Wales. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in London General election 2019 seats to watch in London See story POLITICS Election London. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in Wales General Election 2019 seats to watch in Wales. See story POLITICS Election WalesSeats. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in Eastern England General election 2019 seats to watch in Eastern England. See story POLITICS Election Eastern. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 leaders' visits so far General Election 2019: leaders' visits so far. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in south-east England General Election 2019 seats to watch, south-east England. See story POLITICS Election SouthEast. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 leaders' visits General Election 2019 leaders' visits. See story POLITICS Election Visits. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Historic Labour seats at risk General Election 2019: historic Labour seats at risk. See story POLITICS Election Historic. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Opinion polls (one week to go) v election result 2017 Opinion polls v election rsult 2017. See story POLITICS Election Polls. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 polls in Scotland General Election 2019 opinion polls in Scotland. See story POLITICS Election Poll Scotland. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Opinion polls (one week to go) v election result 2015 Opinion polls v election result 2015. See story POLITICS Election Polls. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in West Midlands General election 2019 seats to watch in the West Midlands. See story POLITICS Election WestMidlands. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Bellwether seats Bellwether seats at UK general elections. See story POLITICS Election Bellwethers. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Conservative top targets General Election 2019 Conservative top targets. See story POLITICS Election Conservatives. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 polls in London General Election 2019 opinion polls in London. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Leaders' approval ratings, July-December Leaders' approval ratings. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in Yorkshire General election 2019 seats to watch in Yorkshire. See story POLITICS Election Yorkshire. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 timetable General Election 2019 timetable. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Labour top targets General Election 2019 Labour top targets. Infographic PA graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in north-east England General Election 2019 seats to watch, north-east England. See story POLITICS Election NorthEast. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures When parliamentary seats last changed hands When parliamentary seats last changed hands. See story POLITICS Election Seats. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in the East Midlands General election 2019 seats to watch in the East Midlands. See story POLITICS Election EastMidlands. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Seats to watch in south-west England General election 2019 seats to watch in south-west England. See story POLITICS Election SouthWest. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Planned increase in day-to-day departmental spending General Election 2019 planned increase in day-to-day departmental spending. See story POLITICS Election IFS. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Corporation tax rates General Election 2019 corporation tax rates. See story POLITICS Election IFS. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Opinion polls (two weeks to go) v election result 2017 Opinion polls v election result 2017. See story POLITICS Election Polls. Infographic by PA Graphics. PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Opinion polls (two weeks to go) v election result 2015 Opinion polls v election result 2015. See story POLITICS Election Polls. Infographic by PA Graphics. PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Hospital admissions in England for poisoning by drug misuse. See story POLITICS Drugs. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Applications to register to vote Applications to register to vote. See story POLITICS Election Voting. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures How many women MPs could there be after the election? How many women MPs could there be after the election? See story POLITICS Election Women. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 opinion polls in Wales General Election 2019 opinion polls in Wales. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures A comparison of the length of the manifestos of the main parties A comparison of the length of the manifestos of the main parties. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Mentions of key words in the main party manifestos Mentions of key words in the main party manifestos. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Mentions of key words in the main party manifestos Mentions of key words in the main party manifestos. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Leaders' approval ratings, July-November Leaders' approval ratings. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Council houses built in the UK 1951-2018 Council houses built in the UK 1951-2018. See story POLITICS Election Labour Housing. Infographic from PA graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Council houses built in the UK Council houses built in the UK. See story POLITICS Election Labour Housing. Infographic from PA graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Opinion polls (three weeks to go) v election result 2015 Opinion polls v election result 2015. See story POLITICS Election Polls. Infographic by PA Graphics. PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Opinion polls (three weeks to go) v election result 2017 Opinion polls v election result 2017. See story POLITICS Election Polls. Infographic by PA Graphics. PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures General election 2019 target seats General election 2019 target seats. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Lib Dem targets General Election 2019 Lib Dem targets. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures SNP targets General Election 2019 SNP targets. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Plaid Cymru targets General Election 2019 Plaid Cymru targets. See story POLITICS Election Plaid. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Prime ministers with shortest time in office Prime ministers with shortest time in office. See story POLITICS Election PrimeMinister. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Applications to register to vote Applications to register to vote. See story POLITICS Election Voting. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Major toll roads & bridges in Great Britain Major toll roads & bridges in Great Britain. See story POLITICS Election Labour Tolls. Infographic from PA graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Police workforce in England and Wales Police workforce in England and Wales. See story POLITICS Election Tories Knife. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Police officers in England and Wales Police officers in England and Wales. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Police-recorded homicides in England and Wales Police-recorded homicides in England and Wales. See story POLITICS Election Tories Knife. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Knife crime offences recorded by police in England and Wales Knife crime offences recorded by police in England and Wales. See story POLITICS Election Tories Knife. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Opinion polls in 2019 Opinion polls in 2019. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Number of candidates per seat Number of candidates per seat at the 2019 General Election. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Candidates standing in the 2019 General Election Candidates standing in the 2019 General Election. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Candidates at UK general elections since 1979 Candidates at UK general elections since 1979. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Women candidates at the 2019 General Election Women candidates at the 2019 General Election. Infographic from PA Graphics. Charlotte Hodges Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Prime ministers with smallest constituency majorities to defend Prime ministers with smallest constituency majorities to defend at a general election. See story POLITICS Election Majority. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Cost of administering polls since 2010 Cost of administering polls since 2010. See story POLITICS Election Cost. Infographic by PA Graphics. Embargoed to 0001 Wednesday November 6 PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures People's Vote group priority list of recommended candidates in key target seats People's Vote group revealed its priority list of recommended candidates in key target seats. See story POLITICS Election Vote. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures MPs retiring from the House of Commons at general elections MPs retiring from the House of Commons at general elections. See story POLITICS Elections. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Lib Dems/Plaid Cymru/Green pact in Wales Lib Dems/Plaid Cymru/Green pact in Wales. See POLITICS Election Pact Seats. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Lib Dems/Green pact in England, seats where Greens have stood down in favour of Lib Dems Lib Dems/Green pact in England, seats where Greens have stood down in favour of Lib Dems. See story POLITICS Election Pact Seats. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Lib Dems/Green pact in England Lib Dems/Green pact in England. See story POLITICS Election Pact Seats. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Nationality of NHS workforce in England Nationality of NHS workforce in England. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Proportion of NHS workforce in England who are not UK nationals Proportion of NHS workforce in England who are not UK nationals. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Long-term net migration to the UK Long-term net migration to the UK. See story POLITICS Election Immigration. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Facts and figures Shortest parliamentary sessions since First World War Shortest parliamentary sessions since First World War. See story POLITICS Election Dissolution. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images

Ms Flint, the Labour candidate for Don Valley and former minister, warned just days ahead of the election being called that the party would not get a “hearing for any of the policies we’ve got around the NHS, around tackling homelessness” if the issue of Brexit had not be resolved.

She last won the seat in 2017 with 53 per cent of the vote share and defeated her Conservative rival by over 5,000 votes. But the new model suggests Ms Flint could now lose her constituency to the Tories.

Responding to the model, Anthony Wells, the director of political and social research at YouGov, said: “As it stands, the swing to the Conservative party is bigger in areas that voted to Leave in 2016, with the bulk of the projected Tory gains coming in the North and the urban West Midlands, as well as former mining seats in the East Midlands.”

The researchers add: “It also worth noting that seven Labour MPs who backed Boris Johnson’s deal in October – Laura Smith, Jon Cruddas, Caroline Flint, Melanie Onn, Jo Platt, Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth – are set to lose to Conservative candidates.”

Overall, the constituency-by-constituency estimate by YouGov, published in The Times, indicates that if the election was held on Thursday, the Conservative Party would win 359 seats, 42 more than they took in 2017.