The key here is that in order to win – whether it be on an idea, a bill or an election, there needs to be a connection with the voter and American public. Essentially, it doesn’t matter if Democrats, liberals, progressives, teabaggers or conservatives have the best "answer". What matters is:

Is it articulated in a way that resonates personally with the audience and their values (and not in a "family values" sort of way)?

Is it honest and believable coming from the messenger?

Is it being heard by the audience in the manner intended?

by the audience in the manner intended? Is there a connection between the messenger and the audience that makes the audience want to help put that message into action?

There have been diaries over the past few days that have said that corruption is the biggest issue or that GOTV is the most important thing. There was one saying that we have to get the republicans on record – but THEY ARE IN THE MINORITY. And while they are important items, they are all secondary to the right message. Without connecting with voters and Americans, you won’t be able to "force" a GOTV effort – you need people that WANT to help with that effort – that BELIEVE in the effort and outcome.

Quite frankly, there is a serious message gap, which I think is a big part of the reasoning for the loss. And not really just in MA but in NJ to a degree as well. The Democrats won in 06 and 08 with "change", "not Bush republican" and "hope". But once the party won, there were compromises with big insurance and pharma, favoritism and big breaks to Wall Street, a clusterfuck of a health insurance bill that had no message or leadership coming from the White House or Congress – just to name a few. Sure, there were successes, but even those (like the biggest middle class tax cut in history that was in the stimulus bill) were not touted in the way they should have been.

There were excuses – we need 60 votes, and then when there were 60 votes, that wasn’t enough. There was no selling or countering the teabagger messages on health care - just a disaster that Obama never took the lead on, never took a real position on and never got out in front on - especially when the "slogans" came out from the right. And whether anyone wants to believe or hear that or not, that is the case.

There is no simple, clear or concise message of "we are working for YOU", neither stated nor in practice. On the national level, there are bank bailouts, pharma deals, taxes on medical plans and cuts to Medicare. Jobs are still being lost, homes are still being lost and banks are still paying out billions in bonuses given by the Feds while not helping struggling Americans. Right, wrong or other, there is no feeling that struggling families are being put first. Couple that with a disastrous policy in Afghanistan that the Yemen bomb attack proves is fruitless (not to mention the fraudulent elections), and this is now Obama and the Democrats’ to own.

In short, the "base" – those motivated GOTV’ers and first time voters – has felt neglected at every turn. Being insulted by Rahm Emanuel made matters worse, especially since there was no "bone" being thrown to the very progressives that essentially put Obama in office and gave the Democrats a majority in 2006 and a super-kick ass majority in 2008.

The last PPP Poll in Massachusetts had some stunning numbers to back this up – and right now, the Democrats’ health insurance giveaway bill is a LOSER with the electorate – whether anyone here wants to believe it or not:

Republicans continue to show much more enthusiasm about the election than Democrats, with 89% of them saying they’re ‘very excited’ to go vote compared to 63% of Dems who express that sentiment. Brown has a 59-40 lead among voters in that category. The likely electorate for Tuesday’s election continues to express skepticism about the Democratic health care plan with 48% saying they’re opposed to 40% who support it. President Obama’s approval stands at 44/43.

Here in NJ, Corzine's accomplishments never resonated with anyone, and there was way too little in terms of outreach to the grassroots or netroots until Christie had a mid-double digit lead in the late summer. Similar to Massachusetts, where I was told that phonebanks were light in volunteers, the campaign took a month off and had a disastrous message. In all honesty, why would people want to take time away from their family when they don’t "feel the love"?

"The other guy is worse" just isn’t going to cut it anymore - especially when it is the Democrats who have gotten all they asked for in terms of votes, seats in Congress and the White House, and have squandered that goodwill through actions, inactions and no message.

Now it is very easy to run as an "independent republican" (whatever the hell that is) and poke holes in a flawed health insurance bill, take a faux populism stand and be in position to take seats that were never even thinkable. Not so much unlike what the Democrats did under Dean when the republican Party was in a similar boat messagewise.

It isn’t blaming anyone – it is being honest and understanding what went wrong. There is a base issue – there was in NJ, there was in MA, and there is all around the country when you see the polling numbers, or talk to motivated and dedicated progressives that have been shafted over and over and over again by those who made big promises.

Without the base and without a message that is believable and resonates on a personal level with American voters, nothing else matters. With the base and with a message that connects and is believable, everything else will be so much easier.

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(New) Update [2010-1-20 13:28:14 by clammyc]: ok, so going through the comments, there are many who think this is only about messaging and there needs to be actions and good governing. That is precisely the point of my "no base" comments. The actions have depressed the base, which then can't bring indies over to vote Democratic because the policies and actions aren't ones that are palatable to the base. This is about BOTH actions and a lack of message. Without good policy, even great messaging is either lost or dishonest. With good policy and lack of message, nothing gets through.