Since 9/11 there have been four major western interventions in the Middle East and North Africa (not counting Israel’s wars in Lebanon and Gaza), which have contributed to the weakening of states and spread of jihadist groups. The attack in Nairobi, claimed by Al-Shabab in retaliation for Kenya’s role in Somalia, is just the latest horrific example. As the map shows, fighters cross borders, exporting their ideas, methods and expertise. The conflicts attract volunteers from all over, including Europe.

Afghanistan, 2011. After the attacks on New York and Washington, the US brings to an end the Taliban regime in an Afghanistan ravaged by the war against Soviet invasion. Although NATO troops are due to complete their withdrawal by 2014, the Taliban are stronger than ever. The conflict has spread to Pakistan, mainly through the use of drones.

Iraq, 2003. The US overthrows Saddam Hussein; it withdraws at the end of 2012, leaving Iraq divided and destroyed. Al-Qaida, not previously present, forms, drawing thousands of volunteers, mainly from the Caucasus and the Gulf, and mujahedin who first took up arms in Afghanistan. The state is struggling to rebuild itself.

Libya, 2011. The UK and France, with the support of the US, contribute directly to ousting Muammar Gaddafi. Thousands of fighters, largely African, who were enrolled in the Libyan army, swarm across the region, abandoning their arsenals, which are plundered. No one controls the border areas.

Mali, 2012. France intervenes militarily to remove the armed groups who have taken over in northern Mali. Although UN troops take over, France remains the central pivot of security in a phantom state. Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) fighters are scattered across the region.

The US’s massive use of drones in these theatres of war, as well as in Somalia and Yemen, has removed a certain number of jihadists, but has also caused civilian deaths (‘collateral damage’). All this feeds anti-American hatred among hundreds of fighters.

In addition to these four wars, there is Israel’s war on Lebanon in 2006, which makes the precarious balance of power ever more fragile and weakens the state, to the profit of Hizbullah. The two Israeli interventions in Gaza reduce any hope of a unified, independent Palestinian entity.