NEW DELHI: Investors could turn cautious on Indian suppliers such as Bharat Forge , Ramkrishna Forging, MM Forging and Motherson Sumi as the US truck cycle peaks. Historically, new orders see an average two-year upcycle before it starts waning due to the high base.Class 8 truck orders — a gauge of the new order for heavy trucks in North America — fell 15% to 27,600 units in November for the first time in the last two years after seeing aggressive growth. The new orders grew on an average 111% in the past one year with average monthly runrate of 41,632 units.The November reading reflects the high base impact on growth and is likely to continue in the coming months. Morgan Stanley said weakness in November reading of new orders will likely drive further concerns for 2019 outlook and cancellations have moved meaningfully in the recent months.The impact of moderation in new orders could affect financial performance of the next fiscal year as typically there is a lag of 6-8 months between new orders and production. The new orders of Class 8 had monthly average run-rate of 41,988 units in the past one year compared to 25,728 of production run-rate.Thus, the impact on the financials of Indian suppliers will reflect in the next few months. However, as growth has started softening, priceearnings multiples will start compressing.For instance, Bharat Forge’s PE multiple slipped to 18.3 based on the next 12-month earnings versus 21.35 a month back. The average return of the four Indian suppliers fell 3.6% in the last one month against 1.5% return of the BSE Auto index.The most significant impact of softening US truck orders is likely to be on Bharat Forge as nearly 20% of its standalone revenue comes from the North American heavy truck segment. The Street was so far expecting 25% and 15% growth in export CV segment in the current and next fiscal year, which could be trimmed if moderation continues.Chennai-based MM Forging exports to Germany, France, North and South America and supplies to Tier-1 and Tier-2 suppliers, which later supply to vehicle makers. It supplies to Class 8 and Class 5 trucks in the US, and nearly 75-80% of its exports are for Class 8 orders.Kolkata-based Ramkrishna Forging gets 26% of its revenue from export in the first half of FY19 and has guided an increase in exports to 35-40% in the second half based on strong momentum in new orders in the first half.Motherson Sumi has 62% share in supplying wiring harness to US truck makers after the acquisition of Finland-based PKC. Wiring harness is a set of wires that run throughout the vehicle to relay information and electric power. PKC is expected to contribute nearly 8% of the total consolidated revenue of the company for the current fiscal.