Both main parties took an electoral hit from the Brexit deadlock in this week’s local elections as discontented voters deserted them in droves. The Conservatives and Labour both went backwards, losing many seats and control of multiple councils. The big winner was the Liberal Democrat party, which announced its return as a force in local government with hundreds of seat wins and some major local council takeovers. Other minor parties including the Greens and independents of various hues also profited from the anti-politics mood as disgruntled voters turned to any and every means available to punish incumbents.

The Conservatives were the biggest losers, as expected, in part reflecting their strong starting position. These seats were last contested in 2015, on the same day David Cameron unexpectedly secured a Conservative Commons majority. A fall back from this high point was always likely but the magnitude of the drop was towards the top end of expectations, with more than 1,200 seats and 30 councils falling out of Tory control.

Are the Tories benefiting from Brexit?

The pattern of Conservative decline largely reflected the Brexit-driven shifts we have seen in Conservative support since the EU referendum. The Tories were down more relative to 2015 in middle-class and graduate-heavy areas, and held on to more support in more working-class areas and in the north of England.

The party did less badly relative to 2015 in leave-voting authorities but did not repeat its strong 2018 performances, suggesting the advantage it had enjoyed in strongly leave-voting areas may be starting to unwind.

Was Labour punished for equivocating?

Normally oppositions profit when voters turn against unpopular governments in local elections but that was not the case for Labour in these elections. Labour lost ground on a weak 2015 performance and was well down on last year’s showing. The party suffered a substantial net fall in seats and lost control of nine councils, mostly in working-class and leave-leaning areas such as Hartlepool, Darlington and Burnley. There were a few bright spots for Labour, such as the gains of Trafford and High Peak councils but the overall results pointed to continuing weaknesses in the northern and Midlands towns that the party would need to secure a general election majority. While the party was up by four points on 2015 in southern wards, it fell by an average of two points in northern seats and was flat in the Midlands.

Would Labour would do better if it started backing remain?

Labour’s struggles came on both sides of the Brexit divide: the party fell back most in the strongest leave areas but also lost ground in many strong remain areas as the Liberal Democrats, Greens and others stole a march on the official opposition. The discontent with Labour does, however, seem to be more than simply a Brexit effect – the party lost ground where it started strongest in both leave and remain areas, suggesting a more general turn against locally dominant incumbents. Among the few bright spots were stronger performances for Labour in seats with large local migrant and ethnic minority populations, and in places with large numbers of students and young people, suggesting Labour is retaining some strength in the kind of young, diverse and socially liberal places where the party has been overperforming since at least 2015.

Are the Lib Dems back?

The Liberal Democrats emerged as the major beneficiary in an election where its traditional anti-incumbent appeal seems to have revived. The party was up eight points on its 2015 performance, gained more than 600 council seats and took control of 10 councils. While the Lib Dems’ advance was somewhat larger in remain-voting areas and areas where their traditional demographic base of graduate professionals was strong, the party’s support was up substantially in strong leave areas too and the results suggest a more general revival of the party’s traditional anti-incumbent appeal. The Lib Dems advanced most strongly in areas where they started off as the local opposition, and in particular in places where they began second to the Conservatives. The Lib Dem vote surged by a remarkable 15 points on average in such areas, delivering hundreds of seats and control of 10 councils, restoring the party to something like its pre-Coalition vitality in its traditional south of England heartlands such as Somerset, Winchester and Chelmsford. However, while this was the best Liberal Democrat performance since it joined the Coalition government, the party’s performance on the BBC’s projected national vote shares remains well below the levels it routinely posted in the 1990s and 2000s. The Lib Dems still have plenty of work to do to recover the ground lost during the Coalition.

Are the Greens a real political force?

The Liberal Democrats were far from the only winners this week, as England’s voters showed a willingness to switch to any available alternative to the big two parties. The Green party enjoyed one of its best ever local elections performance, averaging 11% in the seats where it stood and winning over 175 new council seats. The Greens’ gains were spread across the country, with striking successes both in urban middle-class areas such as Liverpool and Wirral where the party has traditionally done rather better, and in more deprived and leave-leaning authorities such as Oldham and Rochdale. Perhaps the strongest indication of the anti-politics mood of 2019 was the remarkable performance of local independent candidates of all kinds.

Over 550 seats were gained by candidates who rejected any national party affiliation, and independent candidates also gained the mayoralties of Middlesbrough and Copeland. Even Ukip, which struggled even to field candidates in most areas, was up on last year in the places where it did persuade someone to stand.

While this year’s local elections testified to voter frustration with both main parties, they offered little comfort to those hoping a general election could provide a route out of the Brexit deadlock. With the vote fragmenting and neither main party able to break through, the chances that a general election would decisively change the political context look slim. The political pain from the Brexit impasse is mounting. But resolution remains elusive.