Seth A. Richardson

srichardson@rgj.com

Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential contest in Nevada, but the race is still very close according to a new Monmouth University poll released Wednesday.

Trump leads Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson took eight percent. Trump and Clinton are within the margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The poll falls in line with others in the past few weeks that show the race in Nevada is very close. It is the first to show Trump ahead in a three-way race since a KTNV/Rasmussen poll in late July.

Both Trump and Clinton had similar unfavorable ratings, with Trump at 55 percent and Clinton at 54 percent. Clinton did edge out Trump in terms of favorable opinions at 34 percent to Trump’s 30 percent.

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Trump made some slight gains demographically from the previous Monmouth University poll in July. Clinton still leads among nonwhites 63-28 percent and women 50-40 percent, though both those numbers are down from July when Clinton led among nonwhites 64-23 percent and women 53-38 percent. Trump increased his lead among white voters 51-33 percent from 49-37 percent in July. He also increased his lead with men, now sitting at 48-34 percent compared with 44-37 percent in July.

“These demographic shifts are within the margin of error for these demographic groups, but they suggest that Trump has had a little more success solidifying his base in Nevada than Clinton has,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The race for retiring U.S. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat is also still very close, with Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Heck edging out former Democratic Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, according to the poll. Heck beat out Cortez Masto 46 percent to 43 percent. Heck led Cortez Masto among independents 49 percent to 33 percent.

Thirty-six percent of respondents held a favorable opinion of Heck compared with 32 percent unfavorable. Thirty-two percent had no opinion.

Thirty-four percent of respondents held a favorable opinion of Cortez Masto compared with 29 percent unfavorable. Thirty-seven percent had no opinion.

Thirty-eight percent also felt special interests had too much influence over Heck and Cortez Masto. Nevada airwaves have been pummeled with outside spending since the end of the primary in June.

The Monmouth University poll was conducted by a mix of cell phone and landline telephone calls between Sep. 11 and 13, with 406 Nevada residents responding. The margin of error is 4.9 percent.

See the full results below:

Monmouth University Nevada Poll, Sep. 14, 2016