TORONTO

Kathleen Wynne and Ontario’s Liberals could be on the verge of electoral disaster in 2018, according to a new poll.

The Forum Research survey, provided exclusively to the Toronto Sun, shows that if an election were held today, the Patrick Brown-led Progressive Conservatives would be poised to win a “super-majority” with 84 of 122 seats in Ontario’s newly expanded legislature. Andrea Horwath and the New Democrats would form the Official Opposition with 27 seats.

The Wynne-Liberals would be the rump of the house, relegated to third-party status with 11 seats.

Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff said that with the vote 16 months away, there is still a lot of time for the mood of the electorate to swing. But it’s hard to say what the Liberals could do to change voter’s minds, he said.

“It does show the Liberals really have their work cut out for them,” Bozinoff said. “They’re skating on thin ice right now. They’re down to their base in, not even in the GTA, but in the 416.”

The poll shows the Tories have 44% popular support, the NDP have 25%, the Liberals 24% and the Green Party has 6%. But when those numbers are applied on a riding-by-riding basis, it paints a stark picture, he said.

“The Liberals are about to lose 40% of their previous vote,” he said. “That’s a big chunk.”

When the poll is broken down regionally, the Tories lead in all parts of the province except the GTA where they are statistically tied with the Liberals and in Northern Ontario where the NDP hold a six-point lead.

The poll also shows that Premier Wynne’s personal approval rating has sunk to a new all-time low – 11%. In all, 77% of respondents said they disapproved of the job she is doing as premier, with 12% saying they didn’t know. Even amongst Liberal supporters Wynne is a polarizing figure, with 42% approving of her leadership and 40% disapproving.

“This hydro rates thing is killing the Liberals,” Bozinoff said. “I don’t know if they have a solution for it. It’s a major, major drag on their popularity.”

“They need a major reset or reboot to turn this around. It’s not an incremental thing,” he added.

The poll also shows that half of respondents think the PCs will win the 2018 vote. But that makes it far from a sure thing, as we’ve seen in the past with gaffes that have lost them elections, Bozinoff said.

“The Tories have shot themselves in the foot before. I just have a feeling that Patrick Brown is a little more savvy. Just the way he’s gotten on top of the whole social conservative issue. That is the third-rail for that party, I think. He seems to have dodged that issue.”

The poll was conducted on Feb. 15 and 16 and was a random sampling of 1,120 Ontario voters. Forum Research considers it accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20.

sjeffords@postmedia.com