Of all the disasters to befall Doug Ford’s Tories, a massive school strike looms as the sleeper issue most likely to keep him awake at night.

It doesn’t have to end that way. With a little good luck, and a lot less bad judgment, Ford can choose a pathway that avoids another defeat.

All he need do is retreat. And declare victory.

School strikes are the perennial conflict that bedevils premiers, as Ford’s predecessors can attest. We have seen this movie before, no matter the party in power.

Bob Rae’s NDP launched the prequel in the early 90s; Mike Harris and his Tories headlined the main event later that decade; Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals produced their own unhappy sequel in 2012.

Ahead of this year’s contract negotiations, the Tories have set the stage for confrontation:

The government announced a one per cent cap on all public sector pay raises; raised the student-teacher classroom ratio from 22 to 28 (an increase of 27 per cent in average class sizes over the next four years); and mandated four online courses for each high school student ⸺ an adventure in e-learning unmatched (and untested) across the continent.

The PCs argue that higher teacher-student ratios will be painless for union members, thanks to the magic of attrition. But that is small consolation for students left behind after those retired teachers are long gone.

Despite the chaos and uncertainty wrought by that decision, Education Minister Stephen Lecce keeps insisting the changes aren’t all that bad ⸺ ratios have only risen from 22 to 22.5 students per teacher so far. Quite apart from the fact that those ratios are mere averages ⸺ meaning some classes are already approaching 40 students ⸺ the minister’s numbers don’t stand up to scrutiny, now or four years from now.

This week, the non-partisan Financial Accountability Office, an independent agency of the legislature, announced that the real average has already reached 22.9, because there are already 2,826 fewer teachers in place than there would have been had the government not intervened.

And there are still three more years of retrenchment and attrition ahead. The minister claims only 3,475 teaching positions will be lost over that period, but the FAO concluded that Ontario will employ 10,000 fewer teachers than it otherwise would have, based on enrolment trends and current classroom ratios.

The stated reason for the higher class sizes, when announced earlier this year, was Ford’s claim that the budget deficit was out of control — after supposedly soaring to $15 billion for the 2018-19 fiscal year. Last month, the Tories acknowledged that the true deficit number was closer to $7.4 billion after all ⸺ less than half of the initial projection that served as the pretext for education cuts.

That inflated deficit scenario was also the impetus for a salary freeze of one per cent to be applied to all public servants. It is a recipe for unfairness that will only stoke confrontation.

The last time teachers saw their salaries reined in was 2012, when the McGuinty Liberals mounted a belated austerity drive in the wake of the 2010 economic crisis. Teachers’ unions fought and won a court battle over the infringement of their Charter rights when McGuinty pre-emptively constrained their freedom to negotiate.

In the aftermath, there are two lessons for Ontarians today: first, teachers have already contributed their fair share to wage restraint in this province; second, the government risks yet more court setbacks if it flouts the law by trampling on union bargaining rights at a time when there is no demonstrable economic or fiscal crisis.

Against that backdrop, the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation has made the government an offer it should not refuse. Mindful of Ford’s early bluster and the continuing high stakes, the union has made the unprecedented decision to go public with its contract demands rather than bargain behind closed doors.

The OSSTF wants a return to last year’s class ratios; a pause on the unprecedented e-learning plan; and a cost-of-living increase tied to inflation, without any other salary hike.

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On its face, that is an eminently reasonable opening offer from a union that has not always acted reasonably when it comes to launching strike action. It makes clear, in a way the government has not, that student welfare and classroom learning are the priority.

After little more than a year in power, the PC government has created disruption, wreaked havoc, and wrought instability. The best that can be said for Ford’s Tories ⸺ and this is not nothing ⸺ is that its unpredictability has prompted the union representing 60,000 high school teachers to rethink its approach to contract negotiations.

A wise premier would take stock of the moderation he may have induced in the union, and reconsider his own provocations. He need only learn the lessons of recent Ontario history to make history himself ⸺ by reaching a deal that serves students first, while keeping teachers and politicians at peace.

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