Wisconsin Democrats are going to file recall petitions against Republican state Senator Luther Olsen today. Given that petitions have already been filed against Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper, and that petitions are about to be filed against Sheila Harsdorf, this will make the fourth Republican state Senator facing recall in Wisconsin:

Recall organizer Ann Schmidt said she'll turn in more than the 14,700 signatures needed for a recall of Sen. Luther Olsen of Ripon. Democratic organizers have already filed signatures to recall GOP Sens. Randy Hopper of Fond du Lac and Dan Kapanke of La Crosse. Hopper and Kapanke are challenging those petitions. Democrats would need to win three seats in order to take control of the Senate.

Olsen is another top target in the recall effort. Our PPP recall polls show him trailing a generic Democrat 49%-47%, and with an approval rating of only 32%.

Expect recall petitions against a fifth Republican state Senator, Alberta Darling, to be filed soon. Petitions are also likely to be filed against three Democratic state Senators this week:

Organizers of the recall effort against state Sen. Jim Holperin, D-Conover, said Friday that they have enough signatures to prompt a recall election. The Holperin group is among three committees dedicated to recalling state senators that are poised to file recall petitions early next week, according to organizers. Kim Simac of Eagle River, a petitioner with the group to recall Holperin, declined to cite specific numbers but said, “We’re over the top of (the 15,960 signatures needed) now.” Holperin said he was not surprised that the requisite number of signatures would be gathered. “We have ten days to look over the signatures and figure out if we want to challenge (their validity),” he said. Officials with the groups working to recall state Sens. Robert Wirch, D-Pleasant Prairie, and Dave Hansen, D-Green Bay, said they’ve collected the necessary signatures and will be filing petitions sometime early next week.

Expect all of these petitions to be challenged, and expect all of the challenges to fail. These recall elections are going to happen.

There will likely be 9 or 10 recall elections in total, assuming that organizers will file recall petitions against Republican state Senator Robert Cowles and depending on whether enough signatures are gathered against Democratic state Senator Julie Lassa. The Lassa petition doesn't matter that much, however, since she is extremely unlikely to lose in her D+6 district.

On the surface, six of the Republican held seats and three of the Democratic held seats (Holperin D+0, Hansen D+3 and Wirch D+4) are conceivably in play. Democrats will need to win six of those nine in order to take control of the Wisconsin state Senate. The easiest path will be to sweep the Democratic seats, defeat both Kapanke and Hopper, and then knock off one of the other four endangered Republicans.

The recall elections will most likely be held in July.