Sports forecasts aren’t worth the paper they’re written on: which is why we’re publishing these online. But are the Browns set for a spectacular improvement?

The problem with predictions in this space is that they are comically flawed.

Six months ago, we proclaimed with great certainty the Patriots and Seahawks would meet in the Super Bowl, apparently oblivious to Seattle’s obvious decline. We also assured readers that Aaron Rodgers and JJ Watt would be the NFL’s top offensive and defensive players – a thought made preposterous by mid-season. Eyes undoubtedly rolled when we said the Oakland Raiders were the team we were “most looking forward to watching” and the Dallas Cowboys would win the NFC East. The fact we thought the New York Giants would be a playoff team should be a screaming siren to stop reading this piece right now.

But then again, God loves those who try. So here we go with our picks for the coming 12 months.

Ironclad* prediction No1: New Orleans Saints win the Super Bowl

Among the many ridiculous things typed by your humble writer was a 2012 suggestion the Saints in the era of Brees and Sean Payton were done as Super Bowl contenders. For several years it seemed true, New Orleans seemed to be in a slow decline following Payton’s season-long Bountygate suspension that year. The defense, pieced together to win Super Bowl XLIV for the Saints fell apart and while Brees put up amazing passing statistics, New Orleans couldn’t put a serviceable defense on the field, going 7-9 each year from 2014 to 2016.

Then came last season, in which the Saints not only supported Brees with a powerful running game but built an effective defense as well. Suddenly New Orleans were back in contention. Were it not for a miracle catch in Minnesota, the Saints might have been playing the Super Bowl instead of the Eagles.

There’s an excellent chance they will next year. Even at 38, Brees was one of the league’s best quarterbacks last season. The Saints have a strong offensive line, perhaps the NFL’s best running back tandem, an aggressive young defensive secondary and, of course, one of the league’s most competitive coaches in Payton.

To get that Super Bowl, however, the Saints will have to go through this year’s winner, the Philadelphia Eagles who were not only the NFL’s best team but also the most socially aware. Unfortunately the Eagles players’ cries for racial equality may not be as loud next season because …

Ironclad prediction No2: NFL player protests will be squelched as Colin Kaepernick remains unsigned

The fact Kaepernick does not have a job is the NFL’s great shame. The former 49er quarterback, who nearly led San Francisco to a championship in Super Bowl XLVII is better than half the quarterbacks in the league. But when he went unsigned through last summer, despite injuries to starters like Joe Flacco, Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill, it was clear teams were staying away from him because of his silent national anthem protest for racial equality.

Now that a year has passed since his release from the Niners, the chances of Kaepernick landing an NFL job grow more remote. The outrage that fueled many players to pick up his protests has dwindled. President Donald Trump’s demand that team owners should say: “Get that son of a bitch off the field,” has dissipated. The league’s vow to donate $89m to social causes led many players to abandon their public protests. Every player stood for the anthem at last week’s Super Bowl.

Fearful of losing their jobs, NFL players have been reluctant to speak out on controversial topics in the past. That’s what made last fall’s protests so heartening. Many were saying they stood for something more than just collecting big checks. But as Kaepenick enters his second year of early retirement the urgency to speak out may fade. If Kaepernick’s former Niners team-mate Eric Reid, a free agent safety – who has called the league’s donation a “charade” to buy out their protests – doesn’t draw interest from teams this spring, other players may well contemplate their own football mortality.

Then the NFL’s brief, brilliant era of social awareness might fade away.

Ironclad prediction No3: The Cleveland Browns will win at least six games

Somewhere a more ridiculous sentence has been typed in 2018 but we doubt you will find it. Cleveland have not just been dreadful the last three seasons they have been historically so. Teams usually hit rock-bottom when they win three games as the Browns did in 2015 but Cleveland actually got worse the following two seasons winning just once in 2016 and losing every game in 2017. But there’s a suggestion they actually will be decent this fall.

Improvement starts with stability. Owner Jimmy Haslam has run through four general managers in the five years. When new general managers come to bad teams they are compelled to blow apart the roster and start over again. This means the Browns have been trapped in a cycle of bulldozing foundations before the mortar had dried. But in December Haslem finally did something right by hiring former Kansas City GM John Dorsey who has a history of finding talented young players.

The team Dorsey inherits isn’t empty of promise. Despite going winless last season, the Browns were 14th in the NFL in yards allowed. Last year’s top draft pick, Myles Garrett shows signs of being an elite pass rusher and Cleveland appear to have a solid group of young linebackers who will improve if surrounded by better talent. Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson were effective as a running back tandem and Shon Coleman has the ability to be a difference-making receiver. If Dorsey can find some gifted players to go with those already there the Browns should be much more competitive. The key will be finding a quarterback around whom Cleveland can build.

Chances are, that quarterback will come from the draft because …

Ironclad prediction No4: The Jets will sign Kirk Cousins

Good starting quarterbacks are so hard to find, they almost never become free agents anymore. Their teams either sign them to big contracts or trade them for valuable picks. The last big quarterback to hit the open market was Peyton Manning in 2013 and that was only because he was coming off serious neck surgery that caused him to miss the previous season. Cousins is free because Washington never felt strongly enough about him as their future quarterback to sign him to a multi-year contract. In the end, they traded for Alex Smith.

If Jimmy Garoppolo can get $137m from the San Francisco 49ers after seven career starts, shouldn’t Cousins with 13,176 passing yards in the last three years land a contract worth close to $30m a season? The answer, however, is not so simple.

Cleveland need a quarterback. So do Arizona and Denver. Jacksonville may look for an upgrade over Blake Bortles who nearly took the Jaguars to the Super Bowl. All are probably interested in Cousins but are they interested enough to give him $30m a year? Washington weren’t.

As good as Cousins has looked there’s always been a sense he is flawed, with just enough bad reads at key moments to make teams wonder if he’s a quarterback who can put up great numbers but isn’t the kind who can lead his team deep into the playoffs. Cleveland might want to go younger or cheaper. Denver might not want to invest so much in a passer with one playoff start. The Jets have plenty of salary cap room and were surprisingly competitive while rebuilding last season. What they need most is a quarterback they can count on to be productive. If nothing else, Cousins is productive. The Jets will run an offense similar to the one he had in Washington, easing the transition. It seems a perfect fit.

*Actual predictions may not be ironclad.