Seth A. Richardson

Reno Gazette-Journal

The House vote to repeal portions of Obamacare might prove to be a costly political decision for U.S. Rep. Mark Amodei, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

Amodei, the Republican congressman representing the 2nd District in Northern Nevada, joined House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Republican President Donald Trump in voting for the American Health Care Act, which guts certain provisions of Obamacare.

Originally, Amodei was a "no" vote on the legislation until flipping his decision after a meeting with Ryan, Vice President Mike Pence and Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price. Trump also reportedly personally phoned the congressman.

More:Amodei flips to 'yes' on Obamacare repeal

Amodei is usually considered one of the safest elected officials in the state. He’s never won a race for his seat by less than 20 points.

But a new poll commissioned by Save My Care, a health care advocacy organization, in the wake of House Republicans’ vote shows a net-negative opinion of Amodei. Public Policy Polling, which has a B+ pollster rating with the polling experts at FiveThirtyEight, conducted the survey on May 8. It has a four-point margin of error.

Trump won the district by 12 points in the November election. His approval rating among voters is currently split, with 48 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving.

However, Amodei fared much worse. Voters in the district rated him unfavorably 48-35, a 13-point differential that is well outside the four-point margin of error. Only 31 percent said they approved of Amodei’s job performance while 47 percent said they disapproved, a 16-point differential.

Possibly most telling is how voters would pick if an election were held today, according to the poll. A generic Democratic opponent received 45 percent versus 46 percent who said they would still vote for Amodei.

"Wow," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno and a registered Republican. "I don’t know that I’ve ever seen polls that show that district that close."

Wednesday's poll is just that – a single poll – but it falls in line with a growing trend nationwide of how voters view Republicans in the months after Trump took office.

There aren’t any recent approval polls in CD2 to compare this one to, but the Republicans’ health care plan is woefully unpopular nationwide, with only 38 percent of people approving according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. Comparatively, half of voters now approve of Obamacare.

Amodei’s district was no outlier, according to the poll released Wednesday. Forty-four percent of voters approve of the Affordable Care Act – the official name for Obamacare – while only 35 percent approve of the Republican plan.

And that issue could be a motivating driver in the 2018 election. Forty-nine percent of respondents said Amodei’s vote made them less likely to vote for him in 2018, while 36 percent said it made them more likely and 13 percent said it made no difference.

Those numbers increased slightly when portions of Republicans’ health care plan was explained during the question to respondents. Fifty-one percent said it made them less likely to vote for Amodei, while 30 percent said it made them more likely and 18 percent said it made no difference.

The sample of respondents also showed it’s not necessarily just a partisan split. Trump voters approved of what the president was doing by a wide margin at 87 percent, but those same voters only gave an approval rating of 54 percent to Amodei.

Among self-identified Republicans, Amodei’s favorability was just over the 50 percent mark at 53, but his approval rating was only 47 percent for the same group. He also performed especially poorly with Hispanic, women and young voters.

Amodei was one of the lone elected officials in Nevada to support Trump during the election, serving as the Nevada campaign chairman.

Herzik said flipping a vote like Amodei did is always a risky prospect.

"Conservatives aren’t happy with you. Democrats aren’t happy with you," he said. "The second vote was on a bill that had a lot of things people didn’t like. I was surprised that he flipped that vote. Whenever you flip a vote, you rarely gain. You generally leave both sides mad at you."

National groups are taking note. Save My Care, the group that commissioned the poll, along with La Raza Action Fund are launching a campaign against Amodei, as well as several other Republicans who voted for the bill.

A six-figure ad buy is already circulating on television saying Amodei voted for a “disastrous” bill.

“Congressman Amodei, how could you do this to us?” the ad asks at the end.

The groups are also planning a digital strategy in the Reno Gazette-Journal, the largest newspaper in the district. Spanish-language ads will also appear on radio stations.

"This is only the beginning," said Andres Ramirez, Nevada state director for Save My Care. "Less than 6-in-10 voters had even heard that Amodei voted for the bill when this poll was conducted and many others don’t know yet the damaging details of all the ways this bill cuts coverage, raises costs and eliminates protections that people depend on."

While Democrats are expecting a wave election in 2018 due to Republicans’ growing unpopularity, Amodei is never considered on that vulnerable list.

Most of the focus in terms of attacks is on U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, the senior Republican senator for the state. Heller is the only Republican up for reelection in a state that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won.

Heller came out against the House Republican health care bill the same day it was voted on.

More:Heller says he is against Obamacare repeal in current form

More:Noisy Reno crowd greets Heller, Amodei at town hall

But the poll and current trends do give insight into what could come from the 2018 election. If Amodei is as vulnerable as the poll indicates, then a slew of congressional Republicans are likely in the same predicament.

Most telling, Herzik said, were the low favorability and job approval ratings for Amodei, especially compared to Trump's.

"The health care issue, all right. Good luck with that one. Maybe that will fade. But his favorability?" Herzik said. "He was always, in a sense, well liked. It was even if you didn’t agree with his policy, 'Yeah, but Mark’s a good guy and he’s hard working and he represents the district well.' That’s always what was tagged on him: he’s really working for the district. Well, those numbers are indicating that he’s got some problems within the district."

If Republicans do fall in droves in 2018 as some are predicting, Herzik said Amodei would likely be one of the "last to tip over."

"It’s early and even with these poll numbers, the Republicans in these special elections, they’ve all won," Herzik said. "Yeah, the races have been much closer than they were, but they still all won. However, you’re talking about some incredibly safe seats and these races are tight? That’s something if I’m a Republican I’m worried about.

If the numbers are accurate – and consistently so – Herzik said they are troubling for the congressman.

"You can say it’s temporary, it’s because of the health care vote and all of that will go away," Herzik said. "That might be true, but I wouldn’t like these numbers if I were Mark Amodei."

View the full poll below:

Seth A. Richardson covers politics for the Reno Gazette-Journal. Like him on Facebook here or follow him on Twitter at @SethARichardson.