The result is that American consumers are carrying the burden of keeping the economy out of a significant slump or recession.

For the quarter that ended Sunday, for example, the economic research firm Macroeconomic Advisers projects that personal consumption will have risen at a 3.7 percent annual rate, while business spending on structures and equipment will have fallen at annualized rates of 4.6 percent and 4.4 percent.

Those and other forces, in those estimates, suggest moderate economic growth, a net 2 percent rate.

There were tentative signs of trade peace between the United States and China this weekend that could improve the outlook for businesses. But as the expansion reaches the decade mark and becomes the longest on record — a milestone reached Monday, assuming the economy doesn’t turn out to already be in recession — the disconnect between the consumer side of the economy and the corporate side will eventually end in convergence.

The big question for the economy in 2020 is just how this will occur.

In the more optimistic view, the challenges facing the corporate sector turn out to be temporary — perhaps a cooling of trade tensions helps — and demand from domestic consumers soon returns businesses to a more expansionary mode.

In a more pessimistic one, slumping business confidence and the cost of trade wars cause employers to pull back on hiring. A softer job market causes workers to become more cautious about their spending, and an overall economic slump results.