A popular refrain every baseball season is that you don’t get a good sense of who a team is, until Memorial Day. On the verge of the 2016 holiday, I believe we have identified who these Baltimore Orioles are. Collectively they are talented enough as is to reach the post-season for the 3rd time in 5 years. Their limitations are significant enough, to make it highly unlikely that this will be the team that claims the organizations 4th World Championship; and first since 1983.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Some names have changed, but the general complexion of the Orioles since 2012 has remained similar. The positives of offensive power, quality defense, and a good bullpen. The negatives of an underwhelming rotation, and below-average on-base %’s.

The 2016 Orioles are not different.

Currently the Birds are 3rd overall in slugging %. The are tied with the Mets, and Tampa Bay (even with the Rays offensive upgrades coming into ’16, this surprises me) as ML HR leaders at 65. Those 65 homers in 43 games, equating to 1.5 homers per game. 1.5 homers * 162 games = a 244 homer pace for the season.

Defensively, the O’s are currently 20th overall UZR/150, and 23rd in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). With respect to those statistics, I think the sample size is still too brief, for them to provide much value. I think the better indicator of what the O’s are with the glove is Defensive Efficiency (DE). By that metric, the O’s are 4th overall. Manny Machado is playing an excellent SS right now, but the team defense will only improve when JJ Hardy returns and you have both players on the left-hand side. The Orioles defense can best be described, by the definition of DE. They convert balls into play into outs. The reason the Zone Rating and DRS are so low right now, is primarily tied to the corner OF defense. Mark Trumbo is below average, and will remain so. I do think Joey Rickard’s OF play has improved during the year, but he continues to grade as abysmal. Camden Depot recently had a good profile on Rickard’s defense, which you can find here.

The O’s bullpen is 4th overall in Win Probability Added. Zach Britton is overwhelming, and will remain so. Darren O’Day, Brad Brach, and Mychal Givens is an embarrassment of riches. Vance Worley in a swing option is a positive. Dylan Bundy took the loss last night. He’s now allowed 7 er (including 2 homers) in his last 4.1 innings. Overall, I remain pleased that he is part of the pen. The last three years were a wash for the former premier prospect. What you are looking for is month-to-month improvement. Despite the recent results, I think we are seeing that. In the earliest part of the year, his stuff seemed very, ‘Meh.” The velocity and movement seems to be ticking up, and the secondaries seem to be improving. He was not getting any k’s early on. He does have 8 in his last 10.2 innings. He’s on-pace to make 49 appearances, and give the O’s 64.2 innings. He’s being used, and I doubt many last guys in the pen profile any better. If he gets to a point where he’s really struggling, I’m sure he will ‘find an injury’ that allows the O’s to temporarily get him off the roster. Obviously the O’s made the move earlier this week to part with Brian Matusz. Ashur Tolliver gets the first crack at being the replacement lefty, and we will see how that goes. You wonder if they will have to go outside the organization to find another weapon?

Chris Tillman has been excellent. Despite using the 4 seam less, and the sinker / cutter more; his velocity as a whole has ticked up. Most importantly he’s missing more bats. Our projections for Tillman entering ’16 were that his overall numbers would rebound. Basically be what they were in ’15 vs. everyone else but the Blue Jays who demolished him last year. He’s far exceeded that projection so far. Instead of being a reliable rotation piece you asked to keep you in games, he’s been a difference maker. That’s the biggest surprise positive for the roster as a whole.

Through 6 starts, Kevin Gausman has yet to record a win, but he’s looking strong. We’ve repeatedly said that Gausman reaching his ceiling in ’16 is the biggest wild card for this roster, and we continue to believe that to be the case.

You have to feel good about this duo right now.

Behind them, what do you have?

I want to again credit Tyler Wilson for exceeding my expectations. You see a guy with a plan, and good mound presence. However, when a pitcher has limited stuff, I think you have to remain skeptical of his ability to remain consistent. Here’s hoping Wilson continues to prove me wrong, and continues to give the O’s chances to win. 18 k’s in his 36.2 innings, is a pretty good indicator to me that he’s due to be hit harder going forward.

Mike Wright is interesting to watch. The O’s don’t typically have many demonstrative guys. Wright wears his emotions on his sleeve. He’s got a good, live arm. His mechanics are inconsistent, and the control is limited. His secondaries need to be refined, and he really needs to improve his change. What irritates me watching Wright, is that I think he gets away from using his fastball too often. He should challenge guys more often. For the ’16 O’s with their limited SP options, he’s fine to continue to get opportunities to start. Everything I see, continues to indicate Wright’s ML future is in a bullpen though.

Wilson and Wright are not the problems with the O’s rotation.

The problems are Ubaldo Jimenez, and Yovani Gallardo.

Last year Jimenez changed his mechanics, and had a BB% of 8.6%, far below his 10.6% career average. This year, Jimenez reverted back to the mechanics he had used prior to 2015, and his BB% is currently 11.4%. While Jimenez is still on-pace for 188.2 innings of work, you can’t continue to use him when he’s not effective. In the last three outings, he has allowed 16 er over just 15 innings. That has jumped his era from an already high 4.54 to over 6. He’s made nine starts on the season. In five of those starts, he has had 4 bb’s. Jimenez’s typical durability (at-least 31 starts and 176.2 innings in 7 of the last 8 years) does have value. If he can get the walks back under control, he will again be better than many starters league wide.

Right now he’s a wreck that seemingly every O’s fan wants gone. Last year Tillman was that guy. Somebody buying low on Jimenez, might get a nice bounce-back from him next year.

I don’t think replacing Jimenez is an easy proposition for the O’s, even with his struggles. The Orioles just don’t have a lot of SP options. However, even with the lack of starting pitching depth, count me among those who think it’s now time for the Orioles to remove him from the rotation. Even when he’s good, I just don’t enjoy watching him pitch. I hate going into everyone of his starts, not knowing what you are likely to get (outside of poor control). Use some of the money saved by trading Matusz, and provide some additional incentive for someone to take on the majority of the remainder of his contract (roughly $8.5M remaining here in ’16, and $13.5M in ’17). Most years he’s typically around a league average starting pitcher. Given the lack of starting pitching league wide (how many teams have 5 capable starters?), someone should be willing to give him an opportunity to rebound. Baltimore should not have to eat all or even most of the $22M owed to him to trade him. If I’m wrong, I’d just assume the O’s keep him. Have him and Worley switch spots in the immediate, and maybe Jimenez earns another chance to start later this year, or next Spring.

On Sunday (May 22nd), Gallardo threw a successful bullpen session without issues. Without set-backs, I would think he would be back with the O’s to begin July. Then the question will be, what do you have? Do we see velocity closer to his ’15 levels, vs. what we saw to begin his ’16 season? For Gallardo to join the rotation, someone would have to leave. If Worley replaces Jimenez in the immediate, Worley would get 4-5 starts before Gallardo was ready to rejoin the O’s. Then Gallardo would bump one of Wilson / Wright / Worley. Given his peripherals, I don’t have much expectation for Gallardo to be better than a league average 5th starter. He was signed primarily due to the durability he’s had over his career. Will he have any physical setbacks coming off of this injury?

The only existing internal option which intrigues me as a potential candidate to join the rotation in the relative near-term is AA Bowie’s Chris Lee. By all accounts Lee has a high quality arm. Right now he has a gaudy record (5-0, 2.98 era). That said, he only has 19 k’s in 51.1 innings of work. He has to get more punchouts before I would really consider promoting him.

Several weeks ago on our “The Warehouse” podcast, guest Joe Sheehan suggested the O’s should turn to Hunter Harvey if he’s healthy and performing come August. I get the concept that pitchers only have so many bullets in their arms, and talent is talent. However, that currently seems like a real reach, given that Harvey only had 87.2ip at Delmarva in ’14, missed all of ’15, and has yet to climb up on a mound here in ’16. Right now, he’s been sidelined after hernia surgery. Should be starting to work his way back by the middle of next Month.

Overall, the point is simple. The rotation is not good enough, and there aren’t options existing internally to change that.

There aren’t going to be a ton of SP options available, and for those that are; the O’s will have to get past their disadvantage of having a poor Minor League system to trade from.

It seems like the O’s best bet to add a definite improvement to their rotation, with some upside, will be them effectively buying an unwanted contract. The pitcher who best fits that profile is San Diego’s James Shields.

Shields has about $14M owed to him for the remainder of ’16, $21M in ’17, $21M in ’18, and there is a $16M club option for ’19. San Diego doesn’t want to pay him $56M from now through the end of 2018. The Padres are 9 games under .500, 9.5 GB in the NL West. They aren’t going anywhere this year, and they need to build. The money that would be allocated to Shields can be better allocated elsewhere as they attempt reshape their team.

Should the O’s want be on the hook for that salary for a 34 year-old? Ideally, no. That’s not really the point, though. As is the O’s are not good enough. Shields is an upgrade to what exists, and if the O’s can effectively buy him from the Padres, that’s a chance to currently get past the challenges of a thin system. Baltimore might as well be trying to make this happen now.

The issues the O’s have now had for years with their on-base %, are again showing. Baltimore has now slipped to 13th overall in obp. This is why, that despite being 3rd overall in slugging, the Orioles are just 10th overall in runs per game. With a team with on-base issues, it should be clear that Nolan Reimold has to play more. There are two ways that can happen. A) Reimold could replace Rickard as the everyday LF. B) Reimold could replace Alvarez in the everyday lineup. (Trumbo to DH, Reimold to RF.)

I’m not ready to give up on Alvarez. I think as other O’s slow, it will be important for guys like Alvarez, to do more. To be closer to what he’s been offensively for his career. Defensively we know that you don’t want Alvarez in the field with any long-term regularity. On a temporary basis until Hardy returns, I would consider using Alvarez at 3rd, and giving Reimold everyday ab’s (Trumbo to DH, Reimold to RF). Thus getting both in the lineup.

Quick Hits:

1) Davis is cold, 2 for his last 24. Average down to .229, OPS down to .811. Jones had the hot week, but has also again struggled recently, now 3 for 26. Jones’ OPS back under .700. These two have to be consistently better during the remainder of the year.

2) It’s May 25th, and Hyun Soo-Kim has 29 ab’s. He has good ab’s when he plays. Which is fairly impressive given the sporadic playing time. However, he also looks like he’s just trying to make contact, with little ability to drive the ball. Those could be indicators of the concerns raised of his ability to catch-up to the higher velocities he is seeing in MLB.

2a) If you really did believe in Kim’s ability to regularly reach base at a decent clip (and you don’t believe that Rickard is at-least an average defensive OF), there is an argument for now giving Kim some regular everyday ab’s over Rickard and seeing what you have. Seeing if the O’s team obp picked up with both Kim and Reimold in the everyday lineup would be something to watch.

3) Caleb Joseph is really struggling offensively right now. Not a huge deal, with Wieters on the roster, but Wieters looks poised to grab a much higher portion of the playing time behind the plate.

4) Mark Trumbo had an OPS over 1.000 after play May 11th. That’s dropped under .900 after last night. It has to be expected that he will continue to get closer to his career averages. It’s important that others step-up.

5) The June Amateur Draft is coming up. Baltimore better have some success in this draft, because the system needs an influx of talent. Not just to have commodities to trade, but also because you need a flourishing system that is regularly producing cost-controlled options that can contribute to the ML roster. Don’t want to give out contracts like the the O’s have to Jimenez, and Gallardo? Don’t like the idea of effectively buying Shields, and taking on that deal? Then you better have a system that produces more.

6) As a fan, what you want is a team which annually has a chance to contend. For a 5th consecutive season, the O’s are proving capable in that regard. They are a good team, and should be recognized as such. The overall goal though never changes. It’s about winning the World Series. If you don’t win the World Series, you shouldn’t be satisfied with the season. If you do win a title, the satisfaction is trying to do it again. The O’s haven’t won a World Series title since ’83. Getting rid of Jimenez could cost some money. Obtaining James Shields, would cost money. Obtaining Shields still might not even make the O’s the favorite in the AL East, let alone the American League. But you have to be willing to make that type of move, to try and improve your chances.