Why is Lindsay Graham so pissy about the climate change bill being shelved?

He's been a supporter of comprehensive immigration reform in the past, and he's one of these Country-First type Republicans, right? Why not just say, we'll come back to climate change, and in the meantime, I'll be all bipartisan and mavericky on immigration too? Why throw such a petulant little tantrum?

I think (and it's speculation on my part, admittedly) that Graham might be so upset because the Democrats aren't walking into the electoral trap he had set for them. Let me explain.

Financial reform will take another month or two, most likely. By the time the next issue takes center stage, it will be the dominant topic until the November elections. So whatever it is, it's going to redound to the benefit of whichever party can best play the issue for those months. Let's imagine what would happen if Graham got his way...

He draws Democrats into the climate change debate by holding out the promise of a bipartisan victory. The Senate commits themselves publicly to getting it done, making this the issue that will dominate heading into the elections. Once the Senate starts debate, Graham announces that liberals have changed the proposals to the point where he can no longer support it. Republican support evaporates, and here come the big guns.

From that day until November, the Republicans (following a Luntz memo) hammer their talking points: This bill will raise energy costs. It's a big new tax. It will crush the economy and destroy jobs. You'll pay more. You'll pay more. You'll pay more, goddammit!

Sure, Americans favor addressing climate change. But those numbers are fickle once actual proposals hit the table. And this is a debate that is already primed for demagoguery. It will sap independent voter support. With the unemployment rate still high and people still anxious, this is EXACTLY the debate Republicans want to have going into the midterms. Hell, in the short term, they wouldn't even be wrong to say we'll pay more.

Now, instead, the path Democrats seem poised to take:

One year ago (when economic anxiety was higher than it is now, so these numbers may be even better today), a Pew Research poll found support for giving undocumented immigrants a legal path to citizenship had actually increased since Bush's failed push. A five-point jump overall put public support at 63%. Among independent voters, that number jumped three points to 61% - a particularly encouraging number. Even Republicans favored the proposal (the bedrock of immigration reform) at rates of about 50%.

So how much better will it be for Democrats to have THIS debate from now until November? On one side, moderate reform proposals that look a lot like what McCain, Graham, and Bush once wanted. On the other, McCain and Graham and all the Republicans stomping their feet and refusing to play ball. Not to mention Tom Tancredo's fantasies of White America. You want to take bets on how fast that partisan voter enthusiasm gap will close?

Democrats are going to do this right, for once. They're going to split the GOP base from its moderates, they're going to mobilize moderate and left-leaning independents, they're going to energize their liberal base and the Hispanic voters in the South and West, and they're going to highlight the racist Arizona law and the inevitable vitriol from Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, and Rush Limbaugh. By the time November comes and goes, the GOP won't know what hit them.

I think Lindsay Graham knows this, and I think that's why he's so upset right now... Am I wrong?