What has happened?

a US airstrike killed the powerful Iranian general Qassem Suleimani in the early hours of Friday as he was being driven away from Baghdad international airport.

The strike was carried out by an American MQ-9 Reaper drone, a weapon made by California-based General Atomics that has been in use by the US military since it replaced the MQ-1 Predator in July 2017.



According to the US Air Force website, the MQ-9 Reaper’s “significant loiter time, wide-range sensors, multi-mode communications suite and precision weapons” mean that it “provides a unique capability to perform strike, coordination and reconnaissance against high-value, fleeting, and time-sensitive targets”.

America’s use of weaponised drones began after 9/11, expanded during Barack Obama’s presidency and appears to have increased further still under Trump. In March 2019, Trump revoked the Obama-era policy which required intelligence officials to disclose the number of people killed in drone strikes on terrorist targets outside war zones.

Why did it happen?

Tensions between Washington and Tehran had been escalating since a US contractor was killed on an Iraqi airbase near the city of Kirkuk on 27 December. The American citizen was killed in a rocket attack by the Shia militia group Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH). The group is backed by Iran.

The US then launched a series of retaliatory attacks on KH bases, three in Iraq and two in Syria. Iran and Russia condemned the attacks, which are reported to have killed at least 25 people.

Hundreds of protesters also stormed the US embassy inside Baghdad’s Green Zone on 31 December. After declaring the embassy safe, Trump tweeted: “Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!”

What could happen next?

It is impossible to predict the next move by Iran or the US. Iranian officials have promised revenge, but it is unclear where it might fall.

Iran has proxies and allies in states across the region, which in the past have been prepared to do its bidding. The US has bases and troop deployments in many of Iran’s neighbours, which could become targets. Iran may instead choose to strike at US economic interests by disrupting shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, or oil production in Saudi Arabia – both tactics it has used before. Or, as at least one Iranian military figure has suggested, it could strike at Israel, a US ally and Iran’s arch-foe.