Disney uses Black Swan's data to predict what to feature at its Disneyland theme parks Jorge Villalba/iStock

Black Swan is a data-mining startup which uses artificial intelligence to predict when Brits are planning to have a BBQ (regardless of weather), or when the next big winter cold will hit.


Steve King, co-founder and CEO of the data science startup spoke to the audience at WIRED Retail about how the internet and algorithms can be used to make smarter retail decisions.

"We live our lives on the internet, fortunately or unfortunately," said King. "What's interesting is we can use network theory to understand the trends and flows of the internet."

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One of Black Swan's first clients was Disney. King described the popularity of the 2013 film Frozen as a 'Black Swan moment': "It broke all kinds of supply chains - people got angry because they couldn't buy the products."

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Black Swan's analysts looked at film sites such as Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB, data about different films released before Frozen, and what people were watching on YouTube at the time, to help predict this new cartoon would be popular. "The algorithm can predict DVD sales, which goes down to the supply chain and marketing. We can predict this before the film comes out," said King. Disney uses this kind of data to inform what goes in its stores and what features at Disneyland theme parks.

The London-based business now has a presence on four continents, with offices in Hungary, Canada, South Africa and Hong Kong. It recently worked with 7/11 in Japan to help "shift the needle of the supply chain", so it could make savings and reduce waste.

"We looked at Japanese opinions: how peoples' feelings have changed over seasons and holidays," explained King. The work of King's team helped 7/11 boost its profits by 12 per cent. "We had access to information important to run a business," he said.

Black Swan's Steve King on stage at WIRED Retail Tiffany Lin


The work of Black Swan isn't just relevant to retail and selling products. The team wrote an algorithm to predict cold and flu for a client that wanted to advertise vitamins. The algorithm was based on previous purchases of cold and flu products, weather variations, and people asking blogs for advice on taking the day off work.

"This same model that predicts cold and flu, paid by for a client, is now running cold and flu predictions in A&E departments," said King. "The algorithms can be used for the power of good."

Algorithms such as the ones devised by Black Swan's team can help change the way retailers utilise products and supply chains. "It's only the beginning of this kind of world. I'm so excited to work in it and see the opportunities of where this is going," said King.