Some of Thursday night’s forecast models suppressed the storm and kept bulk of the precipitation to our south or offering a little light snow. However, enough forecasts from the European and U.S. models maintained a strong low, suggesting it’s too early to dismiss the possibility of a more significant winter storm.

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Below are eight different models that predict eight very different different storms for next weekend. Note that several are predicting snow (purple), others have rain (green) or the rain snow line almost right on us. Still others have no precipitation because they keep the track of the low well to our south.

Therefore, despite last night’s operational model runs backing away from a snowstorm, we’re not yet ready to gainsay the possibility.

We should keep these possible scenarios in mind over the next few days:

1. A light snow event: A weak wave of low pressure scoots along the Arctic front to our south, and enough moisture spreads northward for a snow event on the order of a dusting to a couple inches.

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2. Wintry mix event or ice storm: A strong wave of low pressure develops along the Arctic front and tracks to our west up the Appalachians mountains. Precipitation begins as snow but changes to ice as milder air moves in at high altitudes. The ice may or may not change to rain depending on how well-entrenched the wedge of cold air remains near the surface.

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3. Significant snow event: A strong wave of low pressure develops along the Arctic front and passes to our south and then turns to the northeast near the coast, drawing in moisture off the ocean. Several inches of snow would be possible in this scenario.

4. A non-event: The Arctic front pushes so far to our south that any storminess developing along it passes too far that direction for meaningful precipitation.

All of these scenarios seem equally likely at this point. We should be in more of a position to start narrowing these down once we’re within about five or six days of the event.