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The next thing to note is that this election isn’t really a major Tory defeat — not really. Yes, they lost almost 60 seats and their government. There’s no denying that. But when you look at the seat totals, ballots cast and popular vote percentages, the real story of defeat here is the NDP’s.

Again, you can’t do much to gussy up the reality of the night for the Tories — they’re out of power and their leader has stepped down. But despite all the anger and venom directed their way, they basically held their own in terms of actual votes cast. Who’d have guessed that?

If there’s an explanation for this out there other than strategic voting, I don’t see it

The truly unmitigated bad news belongs to Mulcair and the NDP. They lost a million votes. That’s astonishing. A party that we all thought was going to form the next government in that long-ago era of three-weeks-or-so ago, lost as many voters as there are people in Calgary. The NDP campaign wasn’t great, but it also wasn’t quite that bad. If there’s an explanation for this out there other than strategic voting, I don’t see it. The results were devastating, not just to the NDP, but for the Tories, as well. Harper was always counting on vote splitting, especially in Ontario. He didn’t get them.

One more observation jumped out. The Tories spent millions and millions of dollars on ad campaigns slamming Justin Trudeau: he wasn’t ready, he was just a nice head of hair, he’d ruin the economy, etc. Obviously, it didn’t work. Looking at these tallies, I’m forced to wonder — yes, with tongue somewhat in cheek — if the Conservatives ought not to have spent less money attacking Trudeau and a bit more talking up Mulcair.

“Justin Trudeau’s just not ready. But this Mulcair guy … he might be OK, if you’re into that sort of thing. Brought to you by the Conservative Party of Canada.” An odd pitch to make for the public, I grant. But it may have been the better bet.

National Post

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Matt Gurney is a member of the National Post editorial board. He hosts National Post Radio every weekday morning from six until nine Eastern on SiriusXM’s Canada Talks, channel 167.