A Magic 8 for Basketball With everyone focused on the Rockets in the West, Oklahoma City could sneak in and snatch Golden State’s crown. Alonzo Adams/USA Today Sports, via Reuters Marc Stein To continue a tradition that began with the first edition of this newsletter nearly 12 months ago, here are eight fearless basketball predictions to tip off 2019 properly: Kevin Love trade chatter is coming There are only 15 days between Jan. 24, when Cleveland’s Kevin Love becomes trade-eligible in the wake of his July contract extension, and the Feb. 7 trade deadline. It is also not yet clear precisely when Love will make his return — scheduled for this month — from the early November toe surgery that has basically sidelined him all season. But just watch. There will be plenty of time for the Cavaliers to engage in some meaningful Love trade discussions. Although the Cavaliers have insisted for months that they want Love to be a cornerstone of a successful post-LeBron James existence — after their well-chronicled struggles to stay competitive following LeBron’s first foray into free agency in 2010 — Love continues to be regarded by some rival front offices as a difference-maker who is available for the proverbial right price. Just one example: Denver has maintained a longstanding fondness for Love, which makes you wonder if the Nuggets will be tempted to make a win-now play for the All-Star forward amid their wholly unexpected rise to the top of the West. Can I guarantee a Love trade before the deadline? No. Can I promise you that we’ll wind up talking about Love as a trade candidate in a few weeks? I think I can. No team will win 60 games this season You have to go all the way back to 2000-01 for the last full season when the N.B.A. failed to field a single 60-win team — when the consolation prize was a Western Conference which boasted seven 50-win teams. But that drought is poised to end. As 2019 begins, only Toronto (27-11) and Milwaukee (25-10) are within range, leading the league with their 58-win paces. Neither team, though, is even halfway through its West schedule yet, making it difficult to imagine either cracking 60. Carmelo Anthony has played his last N.B.A. game I am hoping, just like last January with Philadelphia’s then-rookie Markelle Fultz, that I am actually jinxing myself by predicting doom here and thus helping steer Anthony back onto the floor with some faulty forecasting. The problem is that we’re approaching two full months since Anthony, 34, was exiled by the Houston Rockets after just 10 games together. With scant evidence of interest in the former All-Star scoring machine, Melo fans have to be prepared for the growing possibility that he might really have no way back. Oklahoma City will prove to be Golden State’s foremost threat in the West The most encouraging thing you can say about Golden State’s raggedy first half is that you’d seriously struggle to identify a team in the Warriors’ conference that you can actually picture beating the two-time reigning champions four times in a playoff series. Houston has risen from a nightmarish 14th in the West to No. 5 entering 2019, but the Rockets have essentially needed James Harden to score 40 points a night to do so. Can Harden realistically keep that up and still have something left in May and June? With Utah still falling well short of preseason expectations and Denver difficult to endorse as a credible contender considering that these Nuggets have no playoff experience, Oklahoma City looms as the West resident with the best shot at derailing the Warriors from a fifth consecutive trip to the N.B.A. finals. Chances are it still won’t be enough to topple the Warriors, but the Thunder do boast the league’s No. 1-ranked defense and two of the game’s top 15 (or so) players with Russell Westbrook and a better-than-ever Paul George. Kevin Durant will spend one more season in Golden State after this one I must confess that I’m not confidently shouting this proclamation into a megaphone. Only Durant truly knows what he wants — and there is no shortage of signals in circulation to suggest that the Knicks have a real chance of convincing him to walk away from the Warriors in July. Lots, though, can happen over the next six months. So I’m stubbornly clinging to my membership in the camp that believes that the Silicon Valley-loving Durant will ultimately be swayed to spend one season in the Warriors’ sparkly new Chase Center in San Francisco before moving onto his next challenge in July 2020. Kawhi Leonard will leave Toronto to sign with the Los Angeles Clippers in July Look for several of next summer’s major free agents — Boston’s Kyrie Irving, Philadelphia’s Jimmy Butler and Golden State’s Klay Thompson — to stay put. Allow me to also pass on one of the wildest predictions I’ve heard lately, from one wise insider, who thinks even DeMarcus Cousins will consider re-upping with the Warriors for one more season despite the (comparatively) minuscule raise they can offer on Cousins’ current $5.3 million salary. The Raptors, however, know that they almost certainly have to win it all to convince Leonard to spurn a return to his native Southern California. It turns out that merely winning the LeBron-less East will be tougher than the Raptors ever imagined because of Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston and pesky Indiana. The Clippers’ hopes of signing Kawhi away from the Raptors, as a result, feel rather real as the calendar flips. One likewise presumes that a full Toronto teardown, headlined by a Kyle Lowry trade, would soon follow if Kawhi exits. Anthony Davis will pass on the $240 million “supermax” contract extension New Orleans offers in July And you know what that means. The Pelicans will have no choice at that point but to trade Davis to ensure the maximum return for The Brow before he can become a free agent in July 2020. I suspect that the Pelicans, deep down, know this is the likely scenario. But their preference surely remains trying to get through this season before dealing with their worst nightmare. Dragging the Davis saga to the summer, remember, brings the Boston Celtics into the mix. As covered in recent newsletters, Boston can’t enter the trade bidding while Irving is on their roster on a designated rookie scale contract like Davis. Of course, with 37 days to go until the trade deadline, rest assured that lots more buzz about the Lakers trying to coerce the Pelicans to trade Davis now is in your immediate future. The Warriors will three-peat in June I didn’t forget about the prize that teams are chasing the hardest. And, no, I’m not ready to let the unforeseen glut of quality teams challenging for East supremacy sway me into fearlessly picking against Golden State. Sorry, friends. The Warriors will ultimately haul themselves out of their regular-season malaise to win a fourth championship in five seasons. Book it.