In the early years of his presidency, Erdogan took significant steps to improve relations between Kurds and the Turkish state. The government implemented a ceasefire in 2013 following direct peace talks between Erdogan and Ocalan. Previous restrictions on Kurdish-language education and television programing were also dissolved. Yet the truce was short-lived, as fighting between Turkish forces and Kurdish militants broke out once again in 2015. Many of the Turkish government’s more inclusive reforms have since been repealed.

The failure of the peace negotiations was exacerbated following last year’s failed coup attempt, which led to a crackdown on opposition groups in Turkey. Nine elected officials from the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) are currently imprisoned, and hundreds of Kurdish media outlets and NGOs have been shuttered, with their staff jailed on charges including “membership of a terrorist organization” and "threatening the indivisible unity of the state.”

With no end to Erdogan’s ongoing post-coup purges in sight, Kurds in Turkey may be keen on using the Iraqi referendum as fodder for renewed autonomy campaigns within Turkey’s borders. “Imagine if you have an independent Kurdish state right across your border and at home you are not letting Kurds have education in their mother tongue … That’s going to make it very difficult for [the Turkish government] to maintain its current Kurdish policy,” HDP Vice Co-Chair Hisyar Ozsoy said.

According to Ozsoy, HDP officially supports the Iraqi Kurds’ right to self-determination, but the party has not endorsed a position on the vote due to the lack of consensus among Kurdish groups in Iraq prior to announcing the referendum. Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party, which has been accused of rampant corruption, moved forward on plans to hold the vote largely on its own at a time when the KRG parliament had not met for over two years. Since then, the KRG’s other parties have come to an agreement on holding the referendum, but Ozsoy said the initial missteps might be partly at fault for the lack of international support.

Brett McGurk, U.S. special envoy for anti-ISIS operations, has also criticized the vote for potentially interfering with ongoing operations against the Islamic State. Yet after the fall of Mosul and the eradication of ISIS militants from most Iraqi Kurdistan territories by Kurdish forces, Barzani may be trying to ride a wave of enthusiasm to finally achieve his goals. “Ultimately, it’s never going to be a good time for the Iraqi Kurds to become independent,” Amberin Zaman, a veteran Kurdish analyst, told me. “This has been going on for nearly a century.”

While the referendum poses significant risks for the region, Zaman said that Iraqi Kurdish officials might view the convergence of recent events as giving them their best shot at independence. “[For the KRG], in many respects this is the best possible time, bearing in mind that Kurds were allowed to gain control of disputed territories, the fact that the central government in Baghdad is weak, [and] that potential aggressors, the Shia militias are exhausted by this battle against the Islamic State,” she added.