“We’ve been voting for Collin for a long time,” said Gregg Peppin, a Minnesota Republican consultant. “We’ve liked him, he’s been different. But he’s had a good run and it’s time for a new face.”

Trump won Peterson's district by 31 points in 2016. He defeated Hillary Clinton in every one of the 38 counties in the district covering most of Western Minnesota, some by as much as 66-point landslides.

In 2020, the Trump campaign has indicated that it will pay close attention to Minnesota by amping up rural GOP turnout, which makes Peterson’s reelection prospects even harder.

The tough odds and a well-backed GOP challenger are fueling speculation that Peterson may finally step down.

In a lengthy interview with POLITICO, Peterson says his calculation on whether to run again would not be based on whether he can win, which he’s confident would happen.

Rather, he said it's based on whether he wants to do another farm bill — the legislation authorizing USDA’s farm and food programs that’s renewed every five years. The current farm bill expires in 2023, but discussions about the next version of the legislation begin several years in advance.

“It’s getting harder every time to do a farm bill,” the lawmaker told POLITICO. “It’s a big commitment. So that’s really what my main thing is — if I want to do that. Because then basically I feel like I have a responsibility to see it through.”

When pressed, Peterson would not reveal if he will run or retire. He intends to keep his plans quiet until he publicly announces in January or February next year, as he has done in past races.

A retirement that late, however, would leave little time for a Democratic candidate to hop in the race ahead of Minnesota’s March Democratic primary. Any Democrat could face a formidable opponent: former Minnesota Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach.

Handpicked by NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer, a Republican representative from Minnesota, Fischbach is vying for a congressional seat as the GOP steps up recruiting more women to its ranks. A handful of other Republicans have declared, such as Dave Hughes, the third-time challenger who came within four points of beating Peterson in the 2018 midterms.

Republicans have spread the idea that Peterson is ready to hang his hat for several elections. (The NRCC has nicknamed him "Cranky Collin.")

This year, Peterson sold his D.C. condo for $460,000, which the NRCC said is a sign he will retire at the end of his current term.

Peterson dismissed the sale as any sign, saying he parted with his condo to have additional equity to expand his farm in Minnesota. He also said he grew tired of the growth explosion in "The Wharf" in Southwest Washington.

"It's too many people," he said. "That's the main reason I got out of there. You can't drive, you can't park, you can't go to the grocery store. There's lines. It's all these millennials." He now rents a furnished apartment in a quiet location a few blocks from the Capitol.

Advisers close to Peterson told POLITICO he has given them indications he’s in for the fight. He’s even cited his parade attendance in his district as proof he’s preparing to campaign — 45 this year. (Financial disclosures show Peterson has spent $192.01 on parade candy.)



Fischbach is one of more than 20 female candidates that one prominent Republican super PAC, Winning For Women, is watching.

“2018 was very much the year of the woman on the left and I think that Republicans have the ability to do that too,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, spokesperson for Winning For Women. “There’s a lot of momentum that’s coming off the heels of 2018 and we’re hoping to tap into it.” Winning for Women plans to release its candidate endorsement list in the coming weeks.

Fischbach plans to tie Peterson to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, one of his longtime friends in the House. A campaign aide for Fischbach said the strategy will focus on winning over Republican and conservative Democrats who have voted for Peterson for years.

She’s also helped by the national profile of her family. Fischbach’s mother is a long-serving associate executive director of the National Right to Life Committee and her husband leads an NRLC affiliate in Minnesota. She raised more than $100,000 in the first three months of her candidacy.

“A lot of Republicans and right-of-center voters haven’t had a credible candidate and campaign run in that district for a number of years,” the aide said. “It’s really about bringing them home.”

But Democratic allies, including Peterson himself, dismiss that approach. Peterson "really has no shortage of areas to point to if he wants to show he disagrees with the party,” according to a Democratic strategist. “He’s not afraid to vote in the way that makes sense for the district.”



Peterson says he doesn’t plan to accept money from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. And should he decide to retire, he’s not worried about getting out of the race in time for a Democrat to run because “I don’t think anybody could win that district.”

Peterson has raised more than $600,000 this year, and kept expenses minimal. The only campaign staff he’s paid so far is one of his sons, Elliot, who works as the campaign accountant. As the election draws near, Peterson plans to dispatch his chief of staff, Allison Stock, to serve as campaign manager just as he’s done during previous races.

Peterson has one powerful ally in his corner: the district's agriculture industry, specifically, sugar beet sector. The sugar industry has been a loyal ally of Peterson, nicknamed by one lobbyist the “godfather” of sugar, in exchange for his support and efforts to beat back attempts to reform the sugar subsidy system that most recently were entangled in the 2018 farm bill.

American Crystal Sugar has launched a super PAC devoted exclusively to reelecting Peterson and has been running radio and TV ads in the district for several weeks. So far the PAC, named The Committee for Stronger Rural Communities, has raised more than $300,000 this election cycle.

Farmers are the bulk of Peterson’s base in the mostly rural, 35,388-square mile district that’s become more and more Republican. As Peterson has had to navigate that shift right, his record on agriculture will be what keeps him in office, multiple lobbyists and political consultants told POLITICO.

“They are his core, and that includes a lot of Republicans,” said David Sturrock, a political science professor at Southwest Minnesota State University. “They’ve got that bond with Collin. He’s cultivated an enormously complex web of agriculture groups and constituencies.”

Still, Peterson acknowledges that his biggest asset — experience — may also be his biggest vulnerability, as voters may dislike that he’s “been around too long.”

“That’s how you get someplace in the House,” he said, defending a long career on Capitol Hill. “You don’t get any power until you’ve been around. If they vote me out, there will never be another chairman of the Agriculture Committee from Minnesota, ever.”