When NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian leads her government to the polls on 23 March, it will be the state's fourth election in a row contested by a new Premier. Ms Berejiklian is the state's second female Premier, and on 23 March she will hope to go one better than Labor's Kristina Keneally did by being re-elected.

It will be a tough contest for the Premier. The last four years have seen a string of by-election reverses for the government, and some of the government's much trumpeted capital works projects have been dogged by delays and cost over-runs.

Were the Berejiklian government able to limit the election to a fight on its record and the promises of the Labor Opposition, it would be a tough battle but one where the government could hope to be returned with a majority.

The problem for the government is that the election will take place less than two months before the Morrison government goes to a Federal election. It will be very difficult to disentangle the state campaign from the rising crescendo of Federal politics in what could prove to be the final weeks of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government.

The Morrison government's position has been weakened by personal and ideological differences within its constituent parties. Both the federal Liberal and National Parties have changed leaders twice in their six years in office, and development in policy areas such as climate change and national energy policy have been hamstrung by division.

In contrast the NSW Coalition has been united and can point to eight years of significant capital works development, especially in Sydney. But rapid population growth, and the clutter of cranes and tunnelling sites in the way of voters trying to move around the city, have not been matched with enough finished roads, rail and tram lines to ensure re-election for the government.

Delays and cost over-runs on the high-profile eastern suburbs light rail project have become an easy starting point for Labor's attack on the government's 'waste and mis-management'. The football stadium re-development is another easy target, both Labor and the minor parties using the stadium in rural and regional seat campaigning to argue the Berejiklian government is Sydney-centric.

In regional NSW, the government also still wears the opprobrium of former Premier Mike Baird's attempt to ban greyhound racing and his council amalgamation policy. Those policies produced a massive swing and defeat for the National Party at the November 2016 Orange by-election. That loss cost Nationals Leader Troy Grant his job and in part led to Mike Baird's resignation as Premier in January 2017.

At the 2015 election, Mike Baird's enormous personal popularity enabled him to sell electricity privatization to the voters of NSW. The problem for the government is that Premier Baird then destroyed his popularity on the greyhound racing ban and council amalgamations, two issues that were peripheral to the government's overall vision.

Gladys Berejiklian lacks the popularity Baird had in 2015 and leads a government that is four years older. After eight years in office, the chaos and corruption allegations of Labor's last years in office have faded from voter memories. For the second election in a row Labor has dumped an unknown leader for an almost as unknown alternative, but the leadership of Labor's Michael Daley is less important to how many seats Labor gains than the potency of the issues on which he campaigns.

Four years ago, the government would have planned to be fighting the 2019 election in urban seats on the back of completed projects such as the light rail. Instead, the Coalition is fighting a series of brush fires against independents and minor parties in seats across rural and regional NSW. The backlash in the bush could cost the Berejiklian government its majority, with the urban battles against Labor then determining which side of politics finishes with more seats.

The Swings Needed The Coalition goes into the 2019 election holding 52 seats in the 93-member Legislative Assembly. The Coalition won 54 seats in 2015, but defeat at the Orange and Wagga Wagga by-elections has boosted the crossbench to seven members (including three Greens), with the Labor opposition holding 34 seats. Majority government requires 47 seats. The by-elections mean the numbers going into the 2019 election are Coalition 52 (Liberal 36, National 16), Labor 34, Greens three, Independent three and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers one. The size of the crossbench and prospects for it to increase on March 23 complicate the maths of the election. Assuming no further losses to the crossbench, the Berejiklian government would be forced into minority government by the loss of six seats on a uniform swing of 3.2%. Majority Labor government requires a gain of 13 seats and uniform swing of 8.7%. With three seats held by the Greens, a gain of 10 seats on a swing of 6.7% would insure Labor has more seats than the Coalition and has the better prospect of forming a stable minority government. A swing between 3.2% and 6.7% would most likely produce minority government, but leave the Coalition with more seats than Labor. Even if the Coalition were to lose more seats to the crossbench, rural independent and minor party members would probably prefer to back a minority Coalition government rather than a Labor government backed by the Greens. What is hard to assess is how uniform the swing will be. Marginal government seats like Monaro (NAT 2.5%) and Upper Hunter (NAT 2.2%) may not be as marginal as they appear on paper. With coal seam gas largely removed as an issue, are Lismore (NAT 0.2%) and Ballina (GRN 3.1% v NAT) as bad for the National Party as they were in 2015? The use of optional preferential voting at NSW elections also complicates swing figures. As by-elections since 2015 have shown, competition from Independents, Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Famers Party means more than just the Coalition's marginal seats are at risk. But a fracturing on the right of politics may not help Labor win more seats. It may just increase the size of the cross-bench and complicate the post-election process of forming government.

The 2015 Election In 2011 Barry O'Farrell led the Coalition to victory with 69 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the largest majority in the state's history. Labor recorded its worst result since becoming the official opposition for the first time in 1904. The Coalition recorded 51.2% of the first preference vote, 64.2% after preferences, and a swing of 16.5%. It was an unrepeatable result. The question in 2015 was how big the swing back to Labor would be. Having lost eight lower house members and a Premier to the ICAC's political donations inquiries, and with new Premier Mike Baird promising to privatise the state's electricity assets, did the government have a big enough majority to withstand a backlash? It was, the government comfortably withstanding a 9.9% swing. 2015 NSW Election - Legislative Assembly Result Candi-

dates Seats

Won Change Votes Pct Change 74 37 -14 1,545,168 35.08 -3.50 19 17 -1 464,653 10.55 -2.02 93 54 -15 2,009,821 45.63 -5.52 93 34 +14 1,500,855 34.07 +8.53 93 3 +2 453,031 10.29 0.00 44 2 -1 169,731 3.85 -4.99 93 .. .. 142,632 3.24 +0.12 93 .. .. 88,792 2.02 +2.02 31 .. .. 39,472 0.90 -0.16 540 93 .. 4,404,334 96.56 .. 156,900 3.44 +0.24 4,561,234 90.49 -2.06 5,040,662 2,141,898 54.32 -9.90 1,801,195 45.68 +9.90 461,241 10.47 -2.39 (The change in seats column in the above table is calculated compared to the actual results of the 2015 election. Taking account of the 2013/14 redistribution, the change numbers would have been Liberal (-16), National no change, Labor (+16), Greens (+1) and Independents (-1).) The impact of the ICAC investigations was shown by the Liberal Party losing seven seats where sitting members identified as receiving illegal donations had not been re-endorsed. This included two seats lost earlier at by-elections. With the ICAC inquiries having particular focus on the Central Coast and lower Hunter, the Liberal Party lost all of the seats it had gained in these regions at the 2011 election. The Federal government and interstate elections delivered bad news for the Coalition ahead of the NSW election. In November 2014 the Napthine Coalition government in Victoria had been defeated after one term in office. In Queensland in January 2015, Campbell Newman's LNP government had been defeated despite having had the largest majority in Australian history. Shortly afterwards, Tony Abbott faced a spill motion against his leadership of the Liberal Party. It was in this political climate that new Premier Mike Baird had to convince the electorate that further electricity privatisation was the right thing to do. Mr Baird's huge personal popularity helped him overcome the obstacle, allowing his government to achieve a policy outcome that had evaded former Labor Premier Bob Carr, and ended the premiership of another Labor Premier in Morris Iemma. Yet success may have made Mike Baird over-confident of his ability as a salesman, as the government's political reverses in 2016 were to reveal.

A Little Bit of History New South Wales has often been described as a natural Labor state. Since Labor first formed government in 1910, only three Coalition Premiers have been re-elected, and only two periods of Coalition government have gone beyond two terms. In the 78 years since the election of the McKell Labor government in 1941, Labor has governed for 52 years, the Coalition only 26. Bob Askin is the state's most successful conservative leader, winning four elections between 1965 and 1973 in the era when parliaments only lasted three years. Bertram Stevens won three elections in 1932, 1935 and 1938, and Nick Greiner two in 1988 and 1991. Since 1932 the Coalition has spent four periods in government, nine years between 1932 and 1941 under Bertram Stevens and Alexander Mair, 11 years 1965 to 1976 under Bob Askin, Tom Lewis and Eric Willis, seven years 1988 to 1995 under Nick Greiner and John Fahey, and eight years since 2011 under Barry O'Farrell, Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian. These periods in office pale in comparison to Labor's three extended periods of government, 24 years 1941-65, 12 years 1976-88, and 16 years 1995-2011. If the Coalition retains government on March 23, it will extend its time in office out to 12 years, the longest period of conservative government since the state's two-party politics was established in 1904.