IT IS the time of year when Canadian politicians pack up their papers in Ottawa, and fan out across the country for the gruelling round of voter-pleasing known as the barbecue circuit. This year some opponents of Stephen Harper’s Conservative government will tuck into their steaks and burgers with new hope. Not only have the Conservatives lost ground in opinion polls (see chart), but the opposition reckons that last month’s bruising parliamentary battles over the budget bill reminded Canadians of what they dislike about Mr Harper. The government bill was a massive 425 pages, amending almost 70 laws. The Conservatives said it embodied an essential and integrated plan to protect Canada from an uncertain world economy. But, as well as trimming benefits for the old and the unemployed, its provisions include a long list of apparently unrelated matters: cutting fisheries protection, curbing government oversight of the federal intelligence agency, limiting environmental reviews of big natural-resource projects, tightening some immigration laws and allowing American officials to arrest Canadian citizens in Canada. The opposition said lumping all this together was an abuse of Parliament. So they kept Conservatives voting non-stop for almost 24 hours to defeat a long list of amendments, before the bill eventually passed unchanged on June 18th. During his six years as prime minister—five of them with a parliamentary minority until he won a majority at an election last year—Mr Harper has acquired a reputation for playing fast and loose with the rules. He twice prorogued Parliament, once to avoid a censure vote and then apparently to duck embarrassing questions from a parliamentary committee.

Though the prime minister once campaigned as a crusader for accountability and openness, he has acquired the habit of secrecy. In April the auditor general accused the government of misleading Parliament about the cost of an order for F-35 jet fighters. The parliamentary budget officer, an independent watchdog, is considering going to court to force the government to release details of job and service losses in the budget’s C$5.2 billion ($5.1 billion) of spending cuts. The courts are “perhaps the only institution of accountability this government does not seem prepared to harass, intimidate, ignore or roll over,” wrote Andrew Coyne, a columnist for the conservative National Post.

The government is intolerant of criticism and dissent. Civil libertarians who oppose giving police easier access to internet users’ browsing histories were branded by Conservatives as supporters of child pornographers. They condemned greens worried about the development of Alberta’s tar sands as radicals laundering foreign money; the government is investigating the charitable status of some green groups. It killed off an advisory body of businessmen, scientists and officials because it supported a carbon tax. The electoral authority is investigating claims that Conservatives used automated phone calling in 2011 to mislead voters in opposition areas about where to vote.

This strategy of polarising the electorate, playing to core supporters and vilifying opponents has been effective. But there are signs that it may be wearing thin. In recent provincial elections in Alberta and Ontario parties linked to Mr Harper lost elections they expected to win.

There are also tentative signs that the opposition is becoming more credible. In last year’s election the centre-left New Democrats (NDP) displaced the Liberals as the official opposition, winning 103 seats including 59 of the 75 in Quebec. That unexpected success was mainly because of the appeal of Jack Layton, the NDP’s genial leader, who died months after the vote. His replacement, Thomas Mulcair, has started well, imposing party discipline, dropping leftist talk and moving towards the centre. He has called for a balanced approach to developing the tar sands, taking more note of environmental worries. He kept the party quiet during four months of student demonstrations against rises in tuition fees in Quebec—a silence that seemed to flummox the Conservative attack machine.

But if Mr Harper has dominated Canadian politics for so long, it is not just because of his aggressive tactics. The Conservatives have accomplishments, too. Canada’s economy, forecast to grow by 2-3% this year, stands out from its peers. Inflation (1.2%) and unemployment (7.3%) are comparatively low. The deficit, which ballooned after the 2008 slowdown, may be gone by 2014. The government is involved in several sets of free-trade talks, including ones with the EU, India and the Trans-Pacific Partnership—though it has yet to say much about the costs and benefits. Mr Harper, at first a reluctant traveller, has taken to globetrotting.

Mr Mulcair is expected to visit the Calgary Stampede this month, to launch the opposition’s campaign in an approaching by-election in the city that is Mr Harper’s political home. For his part, the prime minister is likely to revamp his cabinet. He remains his generation’s most accomplished political tactician. Polls show that voters still consider him a more impressive leader than his rivals. And he is only one year into his term. But as they hobnob around the barbecues, opposition politicians have some hope that the prime minister’s dominance is waning.