Trump will make his first visit to Erie since the 2016 presidential election.

Donald Trump is returning to Erie for the first time since the 2016 campaign.

The president will speak at 7 p.m. Oct. 10 at Erie Insurance Arena, his campaign announced. Trump will discuss the economy and protecting and expanding the GOP majorities in the House and Senate in November.

"We are pleased to announce the next stop on our national midterm campaign tour with a Make America Great Again rally on Wednesday, Oct. 10 in Erie, Pa, featuring President Donald Trump," Michael Glassner, the chief operating officer for Donald J. Trump for President, Inc., said in a prepared statement. "With just 34 days from today until the midterm elections, the president looks forward to celebrating the success of the booming Trump economy that's creating new jobs and bigger paychecks for the hard-working men and women of the Keystone State. President Trump will also remind Pennsylvanians of the critical importance to get out and vote for Lou Barletta in his race for the U.S. Senate against Bob Casey."

For tickets, go to www.donaldjtrump.com/rallies/.

Barletta, a congressman, is running against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.

Trump's visit will come on the heels of a new trade pact with Canada and Mexico, which replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement. It will also follow another contentious week in the Senate over Trump's nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh. The Senate is expected to vote on Kavanaugh's confirmation after the FBI completes its investigation into claims of sexual assault against Kavanaugh.

Ahead of his Erie visit, Trump has campaign stops scheduled in Rochester, Minnesota, Topeka, Kansas, and Council Bluffs, Iowa.

Trump last spoke in Erie on Aug. 12, 2016. He went on to carry Erie County — which voted for President Barack Obama by 16 points in 2012 — by two points, and the state of Pennsylvania, en route to the White House. Trump became the first Republican to carry the Keystone state since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Pennsylvania and other traditional Democratic strongholds such as Michigan and Wisconsin were critical to Trump's victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton did not visit Erie during the 2016 general election campaign.

"He made a major impact in this county before," Verel Salmon, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party, said of Trump. "His popularity in Erie County comes from our economic situation — unemployment and so forth. It was the working men (that carried the county for Trump), if you analyze the voting patterns. ... That's all we've heard since the election, that working men and women are speaking up."

Salmon said he's excited that Erie is "on the map." The rally will likely draw people from Ohio, New York and southern Pennsylvania, he said.

"Erie is an important city and it was pivotal in the presidential election last time around," Salmon said. "I believe it will be pivotal coming up in November."

When the businessman and celebrity candidate came to Erie two years ago, he spoke in front of 8,000 people at Erie Insurance Arena, tackling issues that included bringing manufacturing jobs back to the state and eliminating trade deals that hurt American workers.

"You look at this arena, and you see thousands and thousands of people," Trump said during his 2016 campaign appearance. "I think we’re going to do great."

Recent polls of the state suggest support for Trump might be waning.

A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll from early September put Trump's approval rating at 41 percent in the state.

And a poll by Franklin & Marshall released on Sept. 27 shows that 37 percent of registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Trump is doing an "excellent" or "good" job as president. The poll also shows Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey with a 17-point advantage over Barletta and Gov. Tom Wolf holding a 22-point lead over Republican gubernatorial nominee Scott Wagner. Wagner told the Erie Times-News editorial board Tuesday that he dismisses the Franklin & Marshall poll and that other polls show him within single digits of Wolf.

Joe Morris, chairman of Mercyhurst University’s political science department, expects the rally will draw a "sizable" number of Trump supporters and protestors alike.

"It's going to be a spectacle," he said.

Morris said the Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics has conducted three polls of Erie County since Trump's election. Those polls show the president's support in the county "steadily declining," he said. The last poll was conducted this past spring.

Morris is interested to see how Trump's appearance affects U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, R-3rd Dist.

Kelly is running for a fifth term in the newly drawn 16th Congressional District, which includes all of Erie County. Democratic nominee Ron DiNicola, an Erie lawyer, is trying to unseat Kelly. Though the new district is more favorable for Democrats than before, Republicans still hold an advantage. The Cook Political Report gives Kelly an 8-point edge in the race and lists the district as "leans Republican."

Republicans have a "significant electoral advantage," Morris said, but if DiNicola can manage to win or make a good showing, the district could serve as a bellwether for competitive races in states where the polls close late on Election Day. Morris believes the race is one of the reasons Trump plans to stump here.

"We have a really important district here," he said.

Kelly said he is excited that Trump is returning to Erie.

"I will be welcoming the president to Erie along with thousands of other western Pennsylvanians to make sure that he receives the warmest welcome," Kelly said in a prepared statement.

Matthew Rink can be reached at 870-1884 or by email. Follow him on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/ETNrink.