Everyone from the central bank on down is hoping the lower loonie will spur the economy, but a new study says it’s still holding back the recovery.

The Canadian dollar in fact has been “richer than it may look” since 2009, and thus has been a drag, CIBC World Markets economists said in their report.

And that will stay the hand of the Bank of Canada.

“A careful analysis of macro linkages suggests that, when adjusted for the deterioration in trade fundamentals and rate spreads, the currency is posing a meaningful drag on growth,” said economist Nick Exarhos and chief economist Avery Shenfeld.

“That’s tantamount to tighter overall monetary conditions than are conveyed by looking at interest rates in isolation.”

What they mean by that is that the impact of the loonie’s level has been equivalent to the Bank of Canada’s key rate being 90 basis points, or nine-tenths of a percentage point, higher than it has been, according to their model.

The overnight rate has stood at 0.75 per cent since the central bank’s surprise cut in January in the midst of the oil shock.

CIBC’s model suggests that the Canadian dollar has been trading “roughly 10 per cent rich versus fundamentals” since the end of the great slump.

Canada, of course, is a “currency-sensitive” country, as the CIBC economists put it, citing the fact that exports account for 30 per cent of gross domestic product, which is No. 2 behind Germany in that regard.

But Canada doesn’t have the luxury that Germany does in selling its exports primarily inside the euro zone.

“That’s why the competitiveness of our non-resource exports is particularly vulnerable to the strength in the Canadian dollar,” said Mr. Exarhos and Mr. Shenfeld.

The Bank of Canada has been hoping that a rebound in non-energy exports will help juice the economy, which forecasters now suggest will expand at a pace of only about 1.5 per cent this year after the weakness of the first half.

And economists believe it will be some time yet before the central bank raises rates, unlike the Federal Reserve, which is heading toward a possible September hike.

“In an effort to keep the Canadian dollar trading well beneath parity, while at the same time counteracting the implied effects on monetary policy that the currency has provided, expect the BoC to be much more patient than the Fed, with short-end rate spreads between the two nations closing,” the CIBC economists said.