The original Russian language of the Minsk agreement is being poured over now for clues to

understanding how some of the pledges might be kept — or not.

Point 5 says (translation by The Interpreter):

5. Ensure the pardoning and amnesty through introducing a law in

force prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in

connection with events which took place in certain districts of Donetsk

and Lugansk Regions of Ukraine.

But this has immediately caused concerns about an amnesty of the

perpetrators of the downing of MH17 — widely believed to be

Russian-backed separatists — in which 298 people were killed, as well

as other grave war crimes.

Point 6 concerns what has been reported as “a POW exchange” but which actually contains a broader term:

6. Ensure the release and exchange of all hostages and

unlawfully detained persons on the basis of the principle of “all for

all”. This process should be completed no later than the fifth day after

the withdrawal.

This is the same language used on the September 5, 2014 document, which at that time gave rise to expectations by Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), that Savchenko would be released. Her defense team tried to secure recognition of her POW status in order to get her included in exchanges.

By using the Russian word for “hostages” (zalozhniki) rather than voyenoplenniye

(prisoners-of-war), there is a theoretical possibility to get around any legal

hurdle that Russian authorities may throw up regarding the release of

Nadiya Savchenko, claiming that she is not a POW because they are

ostensibly not a party to the war. So far, Moscow has not accepted that broader interpretation to apply to Savchenko saying that she is not included in the exchange of POWs and is not eligible for the amnesty, which only applies to those on Ukrainian territory.

Moscow claims she herself entered

Russian territory and was suspected as an accomplice in the murder of

two Russian journalists. (They were most likely killed accidentally by

shell fire at a militants’ checkpoint, as we reported here, here and here.)

Savchenko and her lawyers reject Moscow’s version of events, saying

she was abducted and is innocent of any murder changes, and has called

her “an unlawful prisoner of war.” Others have called her “a political

hostage” to the Ukrainian war or a “political prisoner” as she is held

for political reasons, not due to any evidence.

President Petro Poroshenko was optimistic that Savchenko would be

released regardless of the formulation as part of the deal to exchange

prisoners. As the Washington Post reported:

“I raised the issue of the

release of Nadiya Savchenko and I was informed that it should be done

soon after the medical examination and the preliminary findings of the

investigation are finalized,” Poroshenko told reporters Thursday, adding that he had the support of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande as well.

But as the Washington Post also reported, there is room for slippage in this agreement on Moscow’s side:

Whether Russia would actually acquiesce and release Savchenko is not

confirmed, however. In the past, the Kremlin has said it was a matter

for the courts and refused to influence them. “An automatic release

mechanism for someone accused of complicity in the murder … does not

exist,” Alexei Pushkov, a prominent lawmaker and head of Russia’s

parliamentary committee on international affairs, told reporters Thursday.

Pushkov has been included on the EU and Canadian sanctions’ list with regard to the war in Ukraine.

Both Regnum and TASS, pro-government news services, have said Savchenko isn’t included in the list of POWs to be exchanged. Regnum refers to “sources” and TASS references the interpretation of two members of the Presidential Council of Human Rights who have taken pro-Kremlin positions in the past.

But if the broader language of the Minsk agreement stands, she

could be released anyway as a hostage of the situation. It depends on

whether the Kremlin will move quickly to make good on the pledges as President Poroshenko understood them

— Catherine A. Fitzpatrick