A new study by the Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, using data derived from Illinois Violent Death Reporting System, paints a grim picture for young black men in Chicago: the odds of being killed are rising from already high levels.

And it may get much worse before it gets better. Homicide projections for 2016 suggest that the Windy City may see as many as 650 murders this year — twice that of New York City, a megalopolis three times as big as Chicago.

Given that 80 percent of Chicago homicide victims in 2015 were black, the toll on that community is staggering. The odds that a young black man in Chicago will be killed now rival those found in the world's most dangerous cities.

Sean Kennedy is a writer based in Washington, D.C. Previously, he was a U.S. Senate aide, television producer and a fellow at public policy think tanks.