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Jeff Sagarin's tm NBA Ratings

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NBA 2019-2020 ratings through results of 2020 SEPTEMBER 24 THURSDAY - Conference Finals this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (2) DIVISION AVERAGES (listed top-to-bottom & by conference) (3) teams listed by DIVISION (listed in order within divisions) The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 84. NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings directly over their respective columns. The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively. Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The PREDICTOR , is such that the score is the only thing that matters. PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The RECENT , is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS) , GOLDEN_MEAN , and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right. Predictions_with_Totals just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 1 Los Angeles Lakers = 97.08 63 22 90.73( 4) 21 13 | 34 17 | 96.87 2 | 96.88 2 | 97.40 4 pacific 2 Boston Celtics = 96.49 57 30 90.69( 6) 21 18 | 28 25 | 95.79 4 | 95.89 5 | 98.25 2 ATLANTIC 3 Toronto Raptors = 96.18 60 23 90.40( 16) 13 17 | 29 21 | 95.42 5 | 95.97 4 | 97.33 5 ATLANTIC 4 Milwaukee Bucks = 94.88 61 22 89.91( 25) 12 15 | 21 20 | 98.16 1 | 97.72 1 | 91.77 9 CENTRAL 5 Miami Heat = 94.85 55 31 90.49( 13) 19 13 | 32 19 | 93.71 7 | 93.93 6 | 98.32 1 SOUTHEAST 6 Los Angeles Clippers = 94.16 56 29 90.84( 3) 22 15 | 32 22 | 96.62 3 | 96.00 3 | 91.39 10 pacific 7 Denver Nuggets = 94.08 55 36 90.93( 2) 16 19 | 33 25 | 93.25 9 | 93.85 7 | 95.23 6 northwest 8 Houston Rockets = 92.15 49 35 90.68( 7) 15 13 | 27 24 | 94.08 6 | 93.79 8 | 89.13 16 southwest 9 Philadelphia 76ers = 91.92 43 34 90.55( 11) 10 19 | 18 27 | 92.63 11 | 92.91 11 | 90.29 14 ATLANTIC 10 Dallas Mavericks = 91.87 45 36 90.49( 14) 11 18 | 19 26 | 93.44 8 | 92.91 10 | 89.49 15 southwest NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 11 Phoenix Suns = 91.25 34 39 90.32( 19) 11 17 | 16 24 | 89.17 17 | 89.23 17 | 97.79 3 pacific 12 Utah Jazz = 91.25 47 32 90.64( 9) 12 20 | 18 27 | 92.96 10 | 93.42 9 | 87.60 20 northwest 13 Indiana Pacers = 90.79 45 32 90.16( 23) 12 19 | 19 22 | 91.77 12 | 92.17 12 | 88.40 19 CENTRAL 14 San Antonio Spurs = 90.71 32 39 90.44( 15) 8 18 | 16 24 | 90.01 14 | 89.93 15 | 92.16 7 southwest 15 Oklahoma City Thunder = 90.28 47 32 90.58( 10) 13 20 | 20 26 | 91.55 13 | 91.57 13 | 87.55 21 northwest 16 Brooklyn Nets = 89.74 35 41 90.21( 22) 10 19 | 13 26 | 89.06 19 | 89.04 19 | 91.01 11 ATLANTIC 17 Sacramento Kings = 89.48 31 41 90.50( 12) 8 18 | 13 29 | 88.81 20 | 88.67 20 | 90.82 12 pacific 18 Portland Trail Blazers = 89.48 37 43 91.04( 1) 11 22 | 20 31 | 89.83 16 | 90.00 14 | 88.46 18 northwest 19 Memphis Grizzlies = 89.43 34 40 90.23( 21) 7 17 | 17 26 | 88.06 21 | 88.31 21 | 91.77 8 southwest 20 New Orleans Pelicans = 88.69 30 42 90.65( 8) 6 22 | 10 34 | 89.91 15 | 89.51 16 | 86.20 25 southwest NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 21 Orlando Magic = 88.30 34 44 90.72( 5) 6 27 | 11 37 | 89.11 18 | 89.15 18 | 86.27 23 SOUTHEAST 22 Charlotte Hornets = 86.66 23 42 89.85( 26) 4 16 | 6 29 | 83.15 29 | 83.53 29 | 90.48 13 SOUTHEAST 23 Golden State Warriors = 86.08 15 50 90.36( 18) 3 19 | 5 32 | 83.75 28 | 84.69 25 | 88.48 17 pacific 24 Chicago Bulls = 85.38 22 43 89.16( 30) 2 16 | 3 27 | 86.01 23 | 85.13 24 | 84.81 28 CENTRAL 25 Minnesota Timberwolves = 85.33 19 45 90.37( 17) 3 20 | 8 29 | 86.11 22 | 85.73 22 | 83.67 29 northwest 26 Washington Wizards = 85.28 25 47 89.64( 28) 6 17 | 11 25 | 84.72 25 | 84.59 26 | 86.22 24 SOUTHEAST 27 New York Knicks = 85.03 21 45 89.91( 24) 4 19 | 7 30 | 84.01 26 | 83.68 28 | 86.64 22 ATLANTIC 28 Detroit Pistons = 84.61 20 46 89.49( 29) 3 15 | 10 23 | 85.62 24 | 85.21 23 | 81.79 30 CENTRAL 29 Atlanta Hawks = 84.50 20 47 90.28( 20) 5 21 | 10 29 | 83.86 27 | 83.93 27 | 85.39 27 SOUTHEAST 30 Cleveland Cavaliers = 84.09 19 46 89.79( 27) 4 22 | 7 28 | 82.55 30 | 82.67 30 | 85.87 26 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 ATLANTIC = 92.13 91.87 ( 1) 5 91.93 ( 1) 2 pacific = 91.58 91.61 ( 2) 5 91.61 ( 2) 3 southwest = 90.62 90.57 ( 3) 5 90.57 ( 3) 4 northwest = 90.19 90.08 ( 4) 5 90.10 ( 4) 5 SOUTHEAST = 87.39 87.92 ( 6) 5 87.80 ( 6) 6 CENTRAL = 87.32 87.95 ( 5) 5 87.84 ( 5) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 ATLANTIC = 92.13 91.87 ( 1) 5 91.93 ( 1) 6 CENTRAL = 87.32 87.95 ( 5) 5 87.84 ( 5) 5 SOUTHEAST = 87.39 87.92 ( 6) 5 87.80 ( 6) 3 southwest = 90.62 90.57 ( 3) 5 90.57 ( 3) 4 northwest = 90.19 90.08 ( 4) 5 90.10 ( 4) 2 pacific = 91.58 91.61 ( 2) 5 91.61 ( 2) __________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC = 92.13 91.87 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 91.93 ( 1) NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 2 Boston Celtics = 96.49 57 30 90.69( 6) 21 18 | 28 25 | 95.79 4 | 95.89 5 | 98.25 2 ATLANTIC 3 Toronto Raptors = 96.18 60 23 90.40( 16) 13 17 | 29 21 | 95.42 5 | 95.97 4 | 97.33 5 ATLANTIC 9 Philadelphia 76ers = 91.92 43 34 90.55( 11) 10 19 | 18 27 | 92.63 11 | 92.91 11 | 90.29 14 ATLANTIC 16 Brooklyn Nets = 89.74 35 41 90.21( 22) 10 19 | 13 26 | 89.06 19 | 89.04 19 | 91.01 11 ATLANTIC 27 New York Knicks = 85.03 21 45 89.91( 24) 4 19 | 7 30 | 84.01 26 | 83.68 28 | 86.64 22 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 CENTRAL = 87.32 87.95 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 87.84 ( 5) NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 4 Milwaukee Bucks = 94.88 61 22 89.91( 25) 12 15 | 21 20 | 98.16 1 | 97.72 1 | 91.77 9 CENTRAL 13 Indiana Pacers = 90.79 45 32 90.16( 23) 12 19 | 19 22 | 91.77 12 | 92.17 12 | 88.40 19 CENTRAL 24 Chicago Bulls = 85.38 22 43 89.16( 30) 2 16 | 3 27 | 86.01 23 | 85.13 24 | 84.81 28 CENTRAL 28 Detroit Pistons = 84.61 20 46 89.49( 29) 3 15 | 10 23 | 85.62 24 | 85.21 23 | 81.79 30 CENTRAL 30 Cleveland Cavaliers = 84.09 19 46 89.79( 27) 4 22 | 7 28 | 82.55 30 | 82.67 30 | 85.87 26 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 SOUTHEAST = 87.39 87.92 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 87.80 ( 6) NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 5 Miami Heat = 94.85 55 31 90.49( 13) 19 13 | 32 19 | 93.71 7 | 93.93 6 | 98.32 1 SOUTHEAST 21 Orlando Magic = 88.30 34 44 90.72( 5) 6 27 | 11 37 | 89.11 18 | 89.15 18 | 86.27 23 SOUTHEAST 22 Charlotte Hornets = 86.66 23 42 89.85( 26) 4 16 | 6 29 | 83.15 29 | 83.53 29 | 90.48 13 SOUTHEAST 26 Washington Wizards = 85.28 25 47 89.64( 28) 6 17 | 11 25 | 84.72 25 | 84.59 26 | 86.22 24 SOUTHEAST 29 Atlanta Hawks = 84.50 20 47 90.28( 20) 5 21 | 10 29 | 83.86 27 | 83.93 27 | 85.39 27 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 southwest = 90.62 90.57 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 90.57 ( 3) NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 8 Houston Rockets = 92.15 49 35 90.68( 7) 15 13 | 27 24 | 94.08 6 | 93.79 8 | 89.13 16 southwest 10 Dallas Mavericks = 91.87 45 36 90.49( 14) 11 18 | 19 26 | 93.44 8 | 92.91 10 | 89.49 15 southwest 14 San Antonio Spurs = 90.71 32 39 90.44( 15) 8 18 | 16 24 | 90.01 14 | 89.93 15 | 92.16 7 southwest 19 Memphis Grizzlies = 89.43 34 40 90.23( 21) 7 17 | 17 26 | 88.06 21 | 88.31 21 | 91.77 8 southwest 20 New Orleans Pelicans = 88.69 30 42 90.65( 8) 6 22 | 10 34 | 89.91 15 | 89.51 16 | 86.20 25 southwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 northwest = 90.19 90.08 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 90.10 ( 4) NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 7 Denver Nuggets = 94.08 55 36 90.93( 2) 16 19 | 33 25 | 93.25 9 | 93.85 7 | 95.23 6 northwest 12 Utah Jazz = 91.25 47 32 90.64( 9) 12 20 | 18 27 | 92.96 10 | 93.42 9 | 87.60 20 northwest 15 Oklahoma City Thunder = 90.28 47 32 90.58( 10) 13 20 | 20 26 | 91.55 13 | 91.57 13 | 87.55 21 northwest 18 Portland Trail Blazers = 89.48 37 43 91.04( 1) 11 22 | 20 31 | 89.83 16 | 90.00 14 | 88.46 18 northwest 25 Minnesota Timberwolves = 85.33 19 45 90.37( 17) 3 20 | 8 29 | 86.11 22 | 85.73 22 | 83.67 29 northwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 pacific = 91.58 91.61 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 91.61 ( 2) NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2020 September 24 Thursday - Conference Finals RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.34 ] [ 2.35 ] [ 2.33 ] [ 2.35 ] 1 Los Angeles Lakers = 97.08 63 22 90.73( 4) 21 13 | 34 17 | 96.87 2 | 96.88 2 | 97.40 4 pacific 6 Los Angeles Clippers = 94.16 56 29 90.84( 3) 22 15 | 32 22 | 96.62 3 | 96.00 3 | 91.39 10 pacific 11 Phoenix Suns = 91.25 34 39 90.32( 19) 11 17 | 16 24 | 89.17 17 | 89.23 17 | 97.79 3 pacific 17 Sacramento Kings = 89.48 31 41 90.50( 12) 8 18 | 13 29 | 88.81 20 | 88.67 20 | 90.82 12 pacific 23 Golden State Warriors = 86.08 15 50 90.36( 18) 3 19 | 5 32 | 83.75 28 | 84.69 25 | 88.48 17 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________