S. Korea denies reports of N. Korea nuke test

Calum MacLeod, USA TODAY | USATODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption People of Guam prepared as North Korea threat looms Officials say North Korea may be planning to test fire a missile as early as this week that will target the U.S. territory of Guam.

South Korean official retracted statement about Pyongyang prepping for imminent nuclear test

North Korea is withdrawing workers from the Kaesong industrial complex

Pentagon has strengthened missile defenses to combat the potential threat

BEIJING – Military and government officials in South Korea denied earlier reports Monday that Seoul had detected signs North Korea was preparing for an imminent nuclear arms test, the fourth by the isolated and increasingly bellicose nation.

A mid-range, conventional missile test by the North remains highly likely, and may happen within the next week, analysts in the South said Monday, after weeks of escalating threats from Pyongyang.

Strategic provocation by the North, such as a missile or nuclear test, is "more probable" than military provocation, such as a direct attack against South Korea, said Kim Sung-han, an international relations expert at Korea University in Seoul.

The former "does not have to invite immediate retaliation," but the latter will provoke "massive retaliation" from South Korea, said Kim, who until last month served as a vice minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Meanwhile, the USA's top military commander in South Korea, Gen. James Thurman, and South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, Gen. Jung Seung-jo, have both canceled separate, long-scheduled trips to Washington in the next week.

North Korea said Monday it will recall 51,000 North Korean workers and suspend operations at a factory complex it has jointly run with South Korea, moving closer to severing its last economic link with its rival as tensions escalate.

The statement from Kim Yang Gon, secretary of a key decision-making body, the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, did not say what would happen to the 475 South Korean managers still at the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea.

The statement comes amid weeks of North Korean war threats and other efforts to punish South Korea and the U.S. for ongoing joint military drills. North Korea is also angry over the U.S.-led push for United Nations sanctions over its Feb. 12 nuclear test.

Pyongyang may launch a missile at some point in the next seven days. Wednesday is the day beyond which Pyongyang warned last week it cannot guarantee the safety of diplomatic staff for the limited number of countries that maintain diplomatic representation there.

Next Monday, April 15, is the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, a key date in a state whose main religion is the cult of the Kim family.

If the North fires missiles or conducts another nuclear test, "I think South Korea and international society will rely on the United Nations Security Council," Kim said. "This type of diplomatic response is more probable."

South Korea is worried about a provocative attack near the border areas or a possible terrorist attack from the North that is difficult to identify quickly, as with the sinking of the South Korean navy ship Cheonan in 2010.

Of great concern is not knowing how the North's relatively new leadership will act. The North began hurling threats and curtailing ties after new economic sanctions were imposed on it by the U.N. to get it to halt its nuclear program. The threats were increased during routine annual training exercises between the USA and South Korean militaries.

Unlike his father Kim Jong Il, who had more than 15 years to prepare for stepping into the shoes of his father Kim Il Sung, the current leader Kim Jong Un, 30, is ill-prepared for his role, and rushing to deepen his power base, say analysts.

"This problem of power consolidation is his gigantic task to accomplish in a short period of time," Kim said.

The current crisis "should culminate around 15 April, but will remain noisy until late April," predicted Andrei Lankov, a North Korea specialist at Koomkin University in Seoul. From the North Korean perspective, a missile test is "cheap and necessary," compared to a nuclear test that will deplete the North's limited plutonium supply, he said.

The North Korean regime is "gradually losing domestic support. There is a chance of an outbreak of public discontent," he said. "It's always helpful to remind the people that their country is surrounded by evil and scheming enemies, and only the leader and the army can keep the country secure."

There is a "high possibility" of an imminent provocation from North Korea, but a mid-range missile test is "more likely" than another nuclear test, said Shin Jong Dae, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

"The Park Geun-hye administration are taking the threat from North Korea seriously, but they don't see signs North Korea is preparing to attack South Korea. I think the South Korean government will preserve a cool stance," even if the North conducts a missile test, he said.

While some analysts insist domestic concerns guide Kim Jong Un's actions, Shin said foreign policy goals drive Pyongyang's recent threats and tests.

"They want to force South Korea and United States to offer dialogue, and to extract concessions from Washington and Seoul," he said.

The industrial complex that Pyongyang said would be shut down combines cheap North Korean labor and South Korean know-how and technology. It is the last remaining inter-Korean rapprochement project from previous eras of cooperation.

North Korea closed the border to northbound South Korean managers and cargo last week, though managers already there were allowed to stay. About a dozen of the more than 120 South Korean companies at Kaesong have already shut down because they can no longer get needed supplies.

"The zone is now in the grip of a serious crisis," Kim said, according to state media. He said it "has been reduced to a theater of confrontation with fellow countrymen and military provocation, quite contrary to its original nature and mission."