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IT HAS BEEN a tumultuous week in Britain. On Monday, March 16th, the government abandoned its strategy of gradually building herd immunity to the covid-19 virus. In a daily televised briefing Boris Johnson, the prime minister, encouraged his compatriots to work from home, and to avoid pubs and restaurants. But because he did not order them to do so, many Britons took his suggestions with a pinch of salt (and another round of tequila). Photos circulated on social media of packed Tube carriages in London. Tim Martin, chairman of JD Wetherspoon, a chain of 900 pubs, vowed to keep them “open for the duration” of the pandemic. It was only on Friday, March 20th, that Mr Johnson instructed all pubs and restaurants to shut—at which point many people headed out for one last boozing session.

The British government’s reluctance to quarantine its residents looks increasingly out of step with the rest of Europe. Italy, Spain and France have all imposed nationwide lockdowns. Whereas Mr Johnson has opined that “people must make their own decisions”, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, has castigated those who carry on as usual: “not only are you not protecting yourselves, you are not protecting others.” French residents now face a fine of €135 ($145) for straying outdoors without a printed form and valid reason, such as buying groceries or exercising.

Data released over the weekend confirm that Britons are mingling more than people in most other Western countries, even after Mr Johnson’s ban on Friday night. Citymapper, a route-planning app with 20m users, has created a “mobility index” that estimates how much people are moving around in a selection of 40 cities, compared to a typical day. The index is based on users’ journeys by foot and on public transport (but not by car).

Though mobility has fallen during the last fortnight in all 40 cities, there are considerable regional differences. Seoul and Tokyo had already experienced significant declines by the start of March, and have stabilised since then, as the spread of the virus has slowed. Australia and Russia are still operating at close to 50% mobility, with few deaths recorded there yet. Western Europe and North America have seen the sharpest declines, as the virus has claimed hundreds of lives in several countries. But among places where the death toll has reached that high, Britain is an outlier. On Saturday mobility in London, Manchester and Birmingham hovered around 25%. New York was at 10%, with Rome, Paris and Madrid all at 5% or below.

For now, Britons might feel the virus is a distant threat, especially if they are young and unlikely to die from it. As of Saturday, March 21st, the national death toll from covid-19 stood at 233, just 5% of the 4,827 registered so far in Italy. But Britain is following exactly the trajectory that Italy was 14 days ago, with the same exponential rate of growth (see chart above). The Italian government imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 9th. Unless Britain’s government takes similar action—and its people follow official advice—it might be headed for even greater tragedy.

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