Tesla Motors Inc. squeaked into its forecast for car deliveries in the fourth quarter as the electric-car company seemed to take a cautious approach on its new Model X.

Tesla TSLA, -4.14% announced Sunday that it delivered 17,400 cars in the final three months of the year, a big jump from the previous quarter’s record total of 11,603. The leap was expected, however, as Tesla had predicted fourth-quarter deliveries of 17,000 to 19,000 after launching its new SUV, the second all-electric car fully designed and manufactured by Tesla.

Tesla only delivered 208 Model X cars in the fourth quarter while producing 507 of the automobiles, seeming to hold back to ensure any problems with the new car were not widespread. Tesla in 2015 was dinged by Consumer Reports, which had previously championed its Model S sedan, for a series of issues and defects that required fixes.

Global Equity Research analyst Trip Chowdhry predicted a stronger number of more than 18,300 last week, but he pegged Model X deliveries as no more than 300. He said most of those cars went to customers in California, presumably so Tesla could respond quickly to any issues.

“During the last 45 days of this quarter, the delivery truck activity at the factory has been extremely strong, probably 3 times what we observed on an average in the third quarter,” the analyst wrote. “However, the delivery truck activity was extremely slow during the first 2 weeks of the quarter.”

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The preliminary fourth-quarter deliveries number would give Tesla an annual total of 50,580, though the final numbers released in quarterly reports tend to be slightly different — last quarter, Tesla reported 11,580 deliveries immediately after the quarter ended, for example, and 11,600 in its quarterly earnings report.

“There may be small changes to this delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct,” Tesla noted in its announcement.

That total would push into the lower end of Tesla’s latest annual guidance of 50,000 to 52,000 cars, a goal that has slipped throughout the year. Chief Executive Elon Musk first predicted delivery of 55,000 cars at the beginning of the year, but pulled that down to a range of 50,000-to-55,000 after the first half of the year and then 50,000-to-52,000 after the third quarter.