The Bookies’ squad scored profitably again last weekend as our defensive picks put up big numbers. Hector Bellerin bagged 14 points following a goal, clean sheet and 2 bonus points, whilst Cesar Azpilicueta (11), Thibaut Courtois (7) and Patrick van Aanholt (8) all romped home too. Up front captain, Sergio Aguero scored Manchester City’s 3rd goal in their 4-0 thumping of Bournemouth, claiming a bonus point for his efforts, to return 14 with the armband. Overall, a score of 77 meant that we beat the gameweek average by a healthy 30 points, so read on as we continue to scour the latest odds on offer in preparation for Gameweek 33…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Man City 1.83 55% Southampton 2.05 49% Liverpool 2.2 45% Tottenham 2.5 40% Crystal Palace 2.5 40% Chelsea 2.62 38% Leicester 2.7 37% Bournemouth 2.7 37% Everton 2.75 36% Arsenal 3.1 32% Sunderland 3.75 27% Aston Villa 3.8 26% Watford 3.8 26% Norwich 4 25% Swansea 4 25% Man Utd 4.33 23% West Ham 5 20% Stoke 5.75 17% Newcastle 5.75 17% West Brom 9.5 11%

Manchester City top the defensive rankings this weekend with a 55% implied chance of a clean sheet when they host West Brom. The Citizens, despite the loss of influential captain and defensive stalwart Vincent Kompany to injury, have tightened up at the back in recent weeks, conceding just 1 goal in their last 4 outings and registering 3 shutouts in the process. The Baggies are the joint-2nd lowest scorers in the league (30 goals scored) and have only managed to find the net once in their last 3 games. As a result, defensive returns look likely for the returning Joe Hart in goal and Gael Clichy, who looks to have usurped Aleksandr Kolarov in the left-back hierarchy having started the last 6 league games.

Ranked 2nd from a defensive perspective for Gameweek 33, Southampton (49%) enjoy a home clash with the division’s poorest travelling attack, Newcastle, who have managed just 9 goals away from St James’ Park all season (16 games). With the Magpies also blanking in 3 of their last 5 road trips, the Saints will be confident of adding to their 3 home clean sheets already accrued in 2016. Virgil van Dijk has notched 3 goals and carded 16 bonus points in his maiden Premier League campaign, so he makes our squad along with Matt Targett. The young full-back is a rotation risk (starting 4 of the last 7), but if he makes Ronald Koeman’s XI, he usually does so in midfield, furnishing us with an out-of-position prospect, whilst his kind budget means we can beef up our squad in other areas.

Liverpool (45%), Tottenham and Crystal Palace (both 40%) complete the top 5 defensive prospects according to the bookies this weekend. The Reds have only conceded 3 in as many outings at Anfield lately and the visit of Stoke, who they kept a clean sheet against in the reverse fixture earlier this season, could provide the platform for further defensive returns at home. Marauding right-back Nathaniel Clyne, due to his assist potential and starting XI security, makes our XV. The best defence in the league, Spurs (25 goals conceded), will be looking forward to welcoming the weakest Manchester United attack in decades to White Hart Lane on Sunday, with the Red Devils managing just 1.2 goals per game away from home this term under Louis van Gaal’s tutelage. Kevin Wimmer continues to start in the absence of the injured Jan Vertonghen and provides a budget route into the Tottenham rearguard. Crystal Palace are without a clean sheet in the last 12 in the league, but the bookies give them a decent chance this weekend due to the fact they entertain a Norwich side who have only managed to score 13 goals away from home this term, rendering them the joint-4th worst attack in the top flight. Wayne Hennessey completes our defensive lineup for the gameweek as our backup keeper.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Stoke (17% – away to Liverpool), Newcastle (17% – away to Southampton) and West Brom (11% – away to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Sergio Aguero 1.85 54% Harry Kane 2.3 43% Daniel Sturridge 2.3 43% Graziano Pelle 2.5 40% Jamie Vardy 2.55 39% Alexis Sanchez 2.7 37% Danny Welbeck 2.75 36% Romelu Lukaku 2.88 35% Alexandre Pato 2.95 34% Philippe Coutinho 3 33% Sadio Mane 3 33% Emmanuel Adebayor 3.25 31% Kevin de Bruyne 3.25 31% Odion Ighalo 3.25 31% Jermain Defoe 3.35 30% Lewis Grabban 3.4 29% Riyad Mahrez 3.4 29% Dieumerci Mbokani 3.75 27% Rudy Gestede 3.75 27% Bakary Sako 3.75 27% Dele Alli 3.8 26% Aleksandar Mitrovic 3.95 25% Diafra Sakho 4 25% Dimitri Payet 4 25% Willian 4 25% Max Gradel 4 25% Anthony Martial 4.1 24% Alberto Paloschi 4.25 24% Gylfi Sigurdsson 4.5 22% Ross Barkley 4.5 22% Mame Biram Diouf 4.75 21% Wahbi Khazri 4.75 21% Marko Arnautovic 4.8 21% Jesse Lingard 5.5 18% Salomon Rondon 5.5 18% Georginio Wijnaldum 6 17% Nordin Amrabat 6.25 16% Carles Gil 6.5 15% Robbie Brady 8 13% Stephane Sessegnon 8.5 12%

Sergio Aguero, for the 2nd week in succession, sits at the summit of the attacking rankings with a 54% chance of scoring against West Brom on Saturday evening. After bagging his 17th league goal of the campaign last weekend against Bournemouth, the explosive Argentine has now notched 10 in his last 12, and will need to be at his mercurial best to succeed against a West Brom outfit that have only conceded 16 goals in 15 away games (the same amount as table toppers Leicester). Still, Aguero’s talent needs no introduction and it is universally known that he can put any side to the sword on any given day, so he retains our captain’s armband.

Harry Kane (43%) and Graziano Pelle (40%) complete our front 3 for this round of fixtures. In red hot form on the back of 6 goals in his last 4 appearances, Kane could continue to be a profitable pick for those who back him, given that opponents Manchester United have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 10 away matches. Pelle has also hit form lately with 3 strikes in as many games, and a home clash with Newcastle, who concede an average of 2.25 goals per game on their travels, bodes well for the Italian frontman, who scored in the reverse fixture on the opening day of the campaign. He takes precedence over Daniel Sturridge (43%) in our squad because the budget saved allows us to have a much more competitive squad in return for the 3% implied goalscoring chance that we are giving up, not to mention the question marks hovering over Sturridge’s minutes following Liverpool’s midweek European commitments.

Back in form and back amongst the points (2 goals and 3 assists in 4), Alexis Sanchez (37%) is our 1st midfield pick. A London derby away to West Ham isn’t the easiest of fixtures, but with both teams still having important matters to play for, and with the pair also favouring attacking philosophies of football, we could see goals at the Boleyn Ground come Saturday lunchtime, especially after the Hammers conceded 2 at home last time out to a struggling Palace side. Philippe Coutinho (33%) has also sparkled of late, putting up the same attacking numbers as Sanchez (2 goals, 3 assists) over Liverpool’s last 4. Opponents Stoke are without an away clean sheet in 7 games, conceding 14 goals over that stretch, so the pint-sized Brazilian magician could well be in the points again on Sunday.

Riyad Mahrez (29%) and Bakary Sako (27%) complete our midfield quartet this time round. Mahrez has proved to be instrumental in Leicester’s march towards the Premier League crown, playing a part in no fewer than 27 goals (16 strikes, 11 assists), and has scored 2 in his last 4. A trip to Sunderland, against whom he bagged 2 on the opening day, will hold no fear for the Algerian, especially given the Black Cats’ porous defence (1 clean sheet in 17 games). Palace attacker Sako registered an assist in the 2-2 draw at West Ham last weekend and will be hoping to be in the points again when he welcomes Norwich to South London on Saturday, with the Canaries having mustered just a single clean sheet away from home this term in 16 attempts. Dele Alli (26%), who has chalked up 4 assists in as many outings, makes our bench and completes our squad.

Other viable options for our front 8 include the aforementioned Daniel Sturridge (43%), Sadio Mane and the returning Kevin de Bruyne (both 31%), but the trio miss out on our recommended XV due to squad selection and/or budget restraints.

Team of the Week