Hindsight is rarely really 20/20. While more information can provide some clarity in sports, fans are always, to some extent, left in the fog. The Celtics, as they so often do, strung out their offseason decisions until the last minute but now that they’re all done let’s peer through the clearing haze and make some hypotheses on what it all means, and where this year’s team may find help.

The Cap is Closing In

Conventional wisdom about the new CBA negotiations were wrong, and the team, as you would expect, probably knew that before the public. Starting with the appointment of Michele Roberts, the expectation has been that the main fight would be over the players’ share of revenues and that it would take up all the oxygen, leaving most of the rest of the structure of the salary cap intact. Instead, the two sides appear to have come to a quick resolution and moved on to how the money will be spread across the league.

To this point, all of the rumors point to a more constrained cap environment. This is a bad diagnosis for an organization trying to put together a super team to rival the likes of the Warriors and Cavaliers. If that is the case, cap flexibility becomes even more important than it was in the past, and the team already protected it fiercely. The decisions that the team has made since the draft point to the idea that they knew this was coming.

The selection of Guerschon Yabusele surprised everyone. In hindsight, it looks to me like Yabu may have simply been the best player to indicate a willingness to stay out of the NBA for two years.

“It’s not a problem for me, even if I got to go one year, two years in Europe, in another country and play, I’ll go. I just want to play in the NBA and try to be better, so it’s great.” – Guerschon Yabusele

It’s clear that the Celtics wanted to take “draft-and-stash” players as often as they could, but most first round picks aren’t willing to postpone their NBA careers, and guaranteed contracts, for more than a season. In Yabusele, the Celtics may have found a player who expected to be taken in Round 2 and, faced with the prospect of not receiving a salary guarantee of any kind, showed a willingness to take a longer-term approach and lock in a guaranteed deal for the price of waiting to accept it.

If Yabusele had signed this summer he’d be on the cap for about $2M next summer. His exact future contract will be defined by the new CBA, but if he takes it next summer, as Ante Zizic and the only other 1st round draft-and-stash Furkan Korkmaz likely will, we can expect it to be for over $2.5M. It may be that Yabusele was selected as much for his pro prospects as for his willingness to play along with the franchise’s cap maneuvers for more than one year. Honestly the career projections for the 16th and 32nd picks aren’t all that different, so it wouldn’t be a huge sacrifice to operate like this.

This desire to maintain every dollar of future space could also explain some of Demetrius Jackson’s contract. Jackson, the 45th pick, received the most guaranteed first season money of any U.S.-based 2nd round pick in history. The contract is fully front-loaded with all the guarantees in the first season. Most 2nd round pick contracts start at a lower amount with a flatter structure and maybe some of the guarantee pushed out into year two to account for the lower start. By putting all the guarantees up front, the team was able to pay Jackson like a late 1st round pick without carrying any guarantee into next season.

The selection of Tyler Zeller over Jared Sullinger plays into this same idea that they knew the salary cap was going to become a problem earlier than we may have realized. Injury aside, it’s clear that Sully’s particular skill set would have helped this roster more than Tyler’s. Jared is making less than Zeller despite starting and playing more minutes last year. Why did they choose the option they did? It may be as simple as that they don’t trust Sullinger, but there are cap moves at play here, too.

Zeller signed a two year deal with the second non-guaranteed. That was important for the team because it maintained their cap flexibility for next season without granting the player a no-trade clause, which either one would have automatically received had they signed a straight one year deal. If Sullinger was unwilling to take the limiting upside of a second non-guaranteed year, which he did not give in his contract with Toronto, that alone may have been enough to push the team towards Zeller. Neither option would hurt 2017 cap space, but if the team sees the window closing than any limitations on trade movement would have to be considered.

Finally, we have the decisions on R.J. Hunter and James Young. We have to assume that the team would not have picked up the contract option on either player. Had they kept Hunter and picked up his option it would have cost a seemingly paltry $1.2M next season, but in the context of a team possibly making draft picks and structuring contracts to free up every possible dollar of cap space, it could still matter. Young’s contract option would have cost $2.8M next season but for both players, the team could have cut the cap the cap hits down by 2/3 using the stretch provision. By cutting future ties with both players, the team is showing a strong indication that even $400k of cap space is valuable to them.

If both players were not in the long-term plan, I think it makes much more sense to waive Hunter. His lower cap figure and additional option year made it more likely that he would get claimed off waivers, removing him from the Celtics’ cap sheet and adding $1.2M to their cap space this season. It didn’t happen, but the logic is solid. Meanwhile, Young’s slightly larger contract this season would have bit more value in swinging a trade as it could allow them to take back more money in a deal that lands them over the salary cap. To me, it looks like the decision to waive R.J. and keep James for the year had as much to do with cap management as anything else.

If Yabusele has agreed to stay out of the NBA for a second season (if the team has reason for him to do it) these moves combine to open up over $6M in 2018 cap space. It’s hard to project exactly where the cap will fall, or how max salary tiers will be structured, but that difference probably saves you from having to shed a core piece in pursuit of a 30% max player or more than one core piece for a 35% max player. It could also be the difference between having to cut loose someone like Jackson, or it could even give the team enough flexibility to string out the Kelly Olynyk situation while other options are investigated.

Options for This Season

It’s difficult to judge the Celtics right now as they’ve been quite good when Al Horford and Jae Crowder are on the court. Still, it’s clear that they’re as poor a rebounding team as we feared and that their depth isn’t quite as good as we hoped. The defense has been a train-wreck, but I’m not sure how many teams could cope with missing games from the likes of Marcus Smart, Crowder, and Horford. They won’t be a below average defense when healthy, but they may be missing a quality wing defender on top of the rebounding hole.

The challenge is that, if the team is operating like every dollar of 2017 cap space is precious, the options for adding to the team are limited. Still, even with the constraints of not wanting to add any future guaranteed money, being near the cap, and not being able to trade Tyler Zeller until mid-January, we can identify some potential targets.

Note that I’m only looking for role players here. If an All-NBA talent hits the trade market the team will obviously be happy to take on a longer contract to make it happen. I will only be identifying players with no significant future guarantees as I don’t think the team has any interest in “Kenneth Faried type” role players on medium-sized longer deals.

Andrew Bogut

The Mavs are bad and Andrew Bogut is 31 years old and on an expiring contract. He’s an elite defensive center and rebounder who could play with any of the Celtics’ bigs in traditional line-ups or as the anchor for smaller bench units. It would have to wait until January 15, but there is no trade, maybe anywhere in the league, that appears to make more sense than Andrew Bogut for Tyler Zeller and either Minnesota’s 2017 2nd round pick, or maybe even the protected, future Clippers 1st that Memphis got for a Jeff Green rental last year and flipped to Boston for the 31st and 35th picks at the 2016 draft.

The Celtics would view this as a straight rental as Bogut would probably be signed to another team before the 2017 offseason shakes out for Boston. It would be great if this could be done now, but then it would take Amir Johnson who doesn’t have the future option year that the Mavs may want with Zeller, and would not save Dallas any money. By waiting to do the deal with Zeller, the Mavs would save ~$1M in actual salary and turn a player who doesn’t fit their new timeline into draft assets. Amir is also, obviously, valuable to the Celtics.

The only real downside I can see for the Celtics, aside from that Bogut would be unlikely to stick around, is that Zeller’s “super expiring” contract may have some trade value between the end of the season and the draft. Realistically, the trade would probably wait all the way to the deadline just to make sure Zeller’s contract isn’t needed for something better.

Jeff Withey

I’ll never give up hope on #WitheyTime. He may not bring much (or anything) on offense but he’s a solid rebounder and great shot blocker. With Utah’s stocked front-court he’s only played 40 minutes all season so the Jazz obviously aren’t too invested in the 26 year old.

Demetrius Jackson’s four year deal is too much to give up for a few months of Withey but Utah is short on long-term PG options if George Hill were to walk away. Dante Exum is looking more like a combo-guard than a true PG but he’s still their answer for the future. That being said, a potential back-up PG on a controllable contract is worth a lot more than an expiring 5th big, so if the Jazz were to include something else of value there might be something here.

More likely, the Celtics would send back Gerald Green or waive (or pay a team under the floor to take) James young to open a roster spot and then send a middling 2nd round pick while taking Withey into their open cap space.

Richaun Holmes

Like Utah, the Sixers have more big men than they can use. Unlike Bogut and Withey, Holmes does have a small guaranteed deal for next season. It’s close enough to what will likely be the minimum salary that it probably doesn’t cost much more cap space than just the hold for an open roster spot would.

Holmes is a springy rebounding and shot blocking machine who Philly probably sees as their long-term depth behind Joel Embiid once one of Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor moves on. That has value but, once again like Utah, the Sixers lack good long-term prospects in the traditional PG role. Jackson would give them a young, athletic, true PG who should be able to defend the position and shift off-ball alongside Ben Simmons, or run a second unit as primary ball-handler.

Holmes for Jackson straight-up seems like a good idea for both side, though Philadelphia may continue to be wary of moving big man depth until Embiid shows he can stay healthy under an increased workload.

P.J. Tucker

Worthwhile veteran wings are harder to find than rebounding bigs. Most make more money, meaning the team would have to send out someone like Jonas Jerebko, and are in higher trade demand. I can’t find any particularly good options beyond Tucker, who should be surplus to requirements in Phoenix with the breakouts from Devin Booker and T.J. Warren. Tucker is a tough defender who could help a lot off the bench, but he would be in demand and I don’t know if this team really improves by giving up Jerebko and a pick to get him for a short stint.

The Suns have plenty of cap space to absorb a contract, so if they were willing to swap him for Zeller at the deadline, maybe with the Celtics sending back a 2nd round pick or even Jordan Mickey to sweeten the deal, it would be interesting.

Henry Sims

If the trade market stays frozen, there’s always the remaining free agents. Sims is another non-entity on offense who can grab rebounds. He’s currently in the D-League after appearing on four NBA teams over his first three professional seasons. The Celtics would have to waive/trade dump James Young to open a spot for a new signing, but Sims could be had for the minimum with not future team obligations. He looks like the best of the D-League options to me, though there are plenty of similar players floating around.

Ante Zizic

In a move that seemed odd to me at the time, and that I still have no explanation for, the Celtics did not file a letter with the league saying that Zizic and Yabusele would stay out of the NBA for this season. For overly complicated salary cap reasons, that decision meant that Tyler Zeller could not be traded util January instead of December.

It makes little sense to sign a stashed player mid-season because it means you’ve burned part of their rookie scale deal while they played for someone else. However, if Boston thought he’d be better off developing in the Adriatic League instead of Maine, they theoretically could be keeping him there instead of signing him and then putting him on the shuttle.

If he did sign this season for 120% of rookie scale his 2nd year’s salary would actually be ~$600k less than his projected 2017 rookie year deal would be if the rumors are true about the next CBA. Rookie scale deals start to pro-rate down on January 10, but if he signed just before then he could get whatever he’s made in Croatia, plus his full deal this season, plus get to free agency at the earliest possible date. That could be enough to get him to come this year, depending on his contract situation with Cibona Zagreb, with the 2017 cap savings making it an equally attractive option for Boston. It’s also possible that his current contract makes that impossible; I just don’t know.

Year 16th Pick 2016-17 16th Pick Projected New CBA 23rd Pick 2016-17 23rd Pick Projected New CBA 2016-17 1,888,200 1,382,280 2017-18 1,973,160 2,833,764 1,444,440 2,074,428 2018-19 2,058,120 2,961,132 1,506,720 2,167,692 2019-20 3,157,156 3,088,674 2,556,904 2,261,130 2020-21 RFA 4,738,026 RFA 3,837,138 TOTAL 9,076,636 13,621,596 6,890,344 10,340,388

This still seems like an odd way to work with a player, and one that I’ve generally dismissed, but it’s a fact that they maintained the ability to bring him over despite it hurting Zeller’s trade value, and there is a salary cap benefit to doing it, so I should not have discounted it as strongly as I have. The same thinking could apply to Yabusele, and his contract situation would be simpler because of the short season in China, but it seems much more likely for Zizic as he’s been more productive and, as discussed above, Yabusele may have been picked for his willingness to stay out longer than a year.

Conclusions

The Celtics continue to walk a narrow path here. Every ounce of cap space is needed for next summer in case someone like Blake Griffin agrees to sign, but the team has holes that could cost them wins now and every win, in theory, makes them more attractive to that caliber player. Despite the seemingly stalled trade market on star players, there are role player options to be had. Some things may be tied up in waiting for Tyler Zeller to become moveable, but I do think there are reasonable ways to fix the rebounding and defense issues without going counter to the 2017 cap saving moves.