Marine Le Pen, the Front National leader, stands no chance of winning next year's presidential elections because the French still find the Le Pen brand - not its ideas - too toxic, according to one of the country's canniest electoral analysts.

Her failure could lead to the break-up of the Front National, already riven between the north and south of the country over Ms Le Pen's national statism and a more economically liberal line.

That is the prediction of Patrick Buisson, ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy's former key adviser and the man he claimed "won" him his 2007 election.

A controversial figure who fell out spectacularly with Mr Sarkozy after it emerged he had been secretly recording their Élysée Palace conversations, few question Mr Buisson's deep knowledge of the Right and far-Right electorate.