NORTH CAROLINA – With the 2018 midterm election upon us, an exclusive survey conducted by Spectrum News, in association with SurveyUSA, is giving us a preview of what we can expect after the polls close on November 6.

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 state of North Carolina adults 10/26/18 through 10/29/18. Of the adults, 1,008 are registered to vote and 659 are likely to vote in the election.

The results have an estimated margin of error of plus/minus 6 percent to 3.9 percent.

1. Of 659 likely voters we asked: In the election for North Carolina General Assembly in your district, how do you vote?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians favored the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate. HOWEVER, neither got a majority as more than 10 percent of voters said they would vote for another party, or were currently undecided.

Republican Candidate: 43 percent

Democratic Candidate: 46 percent

Another Candidate: 3 percent

Undecided: 8 percent

2. Of 659 likely voters we asked: In the election for United States House of Representatives in your district, how do you vote?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians favored the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate. HOWEVER, neither got a majority as 9 percent of voters said they would vote for another party, or were currently undecided.

Republican Candidate: 44 percent

Democratic Candidate: 48 percent

Another Candidate: 2 percent

Undecided: 7 percent

3. Of 659 likely voters we asked: In the election for North Carolina Supreme Court how do you vote?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians plan to vote for Anita Earls than any other candidate. She did not, however, win a majority.

Barbara Jackson (R): 22 percent

Chris Anglin (R): 19 percent

Anita Earls (D): 44 percent

4. Of 659 likely voters we asked: How much of a factor is President Trump in your decisions about which candidates you will vote for in the November election? Does he make you more likely to vote for Republicans? Make you more likely to vote for Democrats? Or does he have no impact either way?

According to the survey, President Trump’s makes more North Carolinians likely to vote for Democrats, rather than Republicans. No choice received a majority of votes.

More Likely to Vote Republican: 30 percent

More Likely to Vote Democrat: 45 percent

No Impact on Vote: 23 percent

Not Sure: 2 percent

5. Of 659 likely voters we asked: Turning now to the state constitutional amendments on the ballot ... first, the Income Tax Cap Amendment, which would reduce the income tax rate in North Carolina to a maximum allowable rate of seven percent. Do you vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?

The survey found that more North Carolinians were for this amendment than against it. No choice received a majority of votes.

For: 47 percent

Against: 41 percent

Undecided: 12 percent

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS:

6. Of 659 likely voters we asked: Next, the Right to Hunt and Fish Amendment, which would protect the right of the people to hunt, fish, and harvest wildlife. Do you vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?

According to the survey, a majority of North Carolinians are for this amendment.

For: 59 percent

Against: 31 percent

Undecided: 10 percent

7. Of 659 likely voters we asked: Next, the Judicial Selection for Midterm Vacancies Amendment, which would change the process for filling judicial vacancies that occur between judicial elections from a process in which the Governor has sole appointment power to a process in which the people of the State nominate individuals to fill vacancies by way of a commission comprised of appointees made by the judicial, executive, and legislative branches charged with making recommendations to the legislature as to which nominees are deemed qualified; then the legislature will recommend at least two nominees to the Governor via legislative action not subject to gubernatorial veto; and the Governor will appoint judges from among these nominees. Do you vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?

According to the survey, a slight majority of North Carolinians are against this amendment

For: 29 percent

Against: 51 percent

Undecided: 20 percent

8. Of 659 likely voters we asked: Next, the Legislative Appointments to Elections Board Amendment, which would establish an eight-member Bipartisan Board of Ethics and Elections Enforcement in the Constitution to administer ethics and elections law. Do you vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians are against this amendment than for it. No choice received a majority of votes.

For: 37 percent

Against: 47 percent

Undecided: 17 percent

9. Of 659 likely voters we asked: Next, the Marsy's Law Crime Victims' Rights Amendment, which would strengthen protections for victims of crime, to establish certain, absolute basic rights for victims, and to ensure the enforcement of these rights. Do you vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?

According to the survey, a majority of North Carolinians are for this amendment.

For: 65 percent

Against: 27 percent

Undecided: 8 percent

10. Of 659 likely voters we asked: Last, the Voter ID Amendment, which would require voters to provide photo identification before voting in person. Do you vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?

According to the survey, a majority of North Carolinians are for this amendment.

For: 56 percent

Against: 38 percent

Undecided: 6 percent

11. Of 1,008 registered voters we asked: In general, are things in the United States headed in the right direction? Or are they off on the wrong track?

According to the Survey, more North Carolinians believe the United States is headed in the wrong track than the right one. No choice received a majority of votes.

Right Direction: 39 percent

Wrong Track: 47 percent

Not Sure: 14 percent

12. Of 1,008 registered voters we asked: In general, are things in North Carolina headed in the right direction? Or are they off on the wrong track?

According to the survey, slightly more North Carolinians believe North Carolina is heading in the right direction. No choice received a majority of votes.

Right Direction: 39 percent

Wrong Track: 36 percent

Not Sure: 26 percent

13. Of 1,008 registered voters we asked: Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians disapprove of the job President Trump is doing than approve. No choice received a majority of votes.

Approve: 42 percent

Disapprove: 49 percent

Not Sure: 9 percent

14. Of 1,008 registered voters we asked: Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Roy Cooper is doing as Governor?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians approve of the job Roy Cooper is doing than disapprove. No choice received a majority of votes.

Approve: 49 percent

Disapprove: 26 percent

Not Sure: 25 percent

15. Of 1,008 registered voters we asked: Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job the NC Legislature is doing?

According to the survey, North Carolina is nearly split on this issue. However, more North Carolinians say they approve than disapprove. No choice received a majority of votes.

Approve: 34 percent

Disapprove: 33 percent

Undecided: 33 percent

16. Of 1,200 adults we asked: Do you think Brett Kavanaugh should or should not have been confirmed to the Supreme Court?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians think Kavanaugh should not have been confirmed than should. No choice received a majority of votes.

Should: 37 percent

Should Not: 41 percent

Not Sure: 22 percent

17. Of 1,200 adults we asked: How much impact does Kavanuagh's confirmation process and its outcome have on how you are voting this November? A great deal of impact? Some impact? Or no impact?

According to the survey, a majority of North Carolinians say Kavanaugh’s confirmation has at least some impact on their votes this November.

A Great Deal: 24 percent

Some: 30 percent

None: 33 percent

Not Sure: 13 percent

18. Of the 1,200 adults who participated in this survey, we asked their work-schedule.

According to the answers given by our survey pool:

Work Full-Time: 40 percent

Work Part-Time: 12 percent

Student, Homemaker, Retired: 25 percent

Unemployed: 21 percent

Not Sure: 2 percent

19. Of the 627 who work, we asked: How have the changes to the federal tax law passed by Congress impacted you? Are you seeing ...?

According to the survey, more North Carolinians are seeing about the same amount of money in their paychecks as before the tax cuts were passed. No choice received a majority of votes.

More Money in Your Paycheck: 25 percent

Less Money in Your Paycheck: 17 percent

About the Same Amount: 48 percent

Not Sure: 10 percent

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 state of North Carolina adults 10/26/18 through 10/29/18. Of the adults, 1,008 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 659 who have already returned a ballot or who are likely to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline. In SurveyUSA's 10/08/18 poll release, SurveyUSA cautioned: "Opposition to ballot measures, having nothing to do with North Carolina uniquely or with 2018 specifically, typically increases as Election Day approaches. As such, it is possible that the outcome of 5 of these constitutional amendments may be closer than they today appear." In general, this observation has to do with a "No" vote representing a vote in favor of the status quo, and mirrors the fact that many voters are naturally risk averse and fearful of change, whatever that change might represent. As such, it is unusual but not impossible for the "Yes" vote on a ballot measure to outperform a poll released 3 weeks before Election Day. This is what makes polling on ballot measures an imprecise science. Today's research results and the SurveyUSA results released on 10/08/18 were both conducted online.