Big number: 43 per cent, the share of people in nine downtown neighbourhoods that were walking or cycling to get to work according to the 2016 census. Toronto has so far resisted calls to close traffic lanes to create more space for walking and cycling in this part of the city.

A quick list of Canadian cities that have restricted some traffic lanes to create more space for people during the COVID-19 pandemic: Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Montreal, Kitchener, Brampton.

Where’s Toronto? So far, not on the list. But on Friday, responding to calls for epidemiologists and safety advocates to cordon off parts of streets to create expanded sidewalks and bike lanes, Mayor John Tory announced Toronto Public Health and the transportation department have been doing research and will unveil a plan soon to address “key hotspots where there are lineups and pinch points” on sidewalks.

A plan like that is overdue. Until recently, the response from Dr. Eileen De Villa, the city’s medical officer of health, has been to warn that closing traffic lanes could backfire. “We do not want to encourage people to leave their homes through opening streets which could result in higher pedestrian demand and social gathering,” she wrote in an April 13 letter responding to a request by epidemiologists Anne Harris and Linda Rothman to close some lanes.

It was a reasonable concern, but there is real evidence now to counter it. Cities that have closed lanes in response to COVID-19 haven’t seen a sudden spike in street parties. After restricting car traffic on four streets to allow for more physical distancing earlier this month, Winnipeg is now looking at closing lanes on another six, with a spokesperson telling the Winnipeg Free Press “people are observing social distancing and … sharing the road well.”

The experience in other cities suggests there’s a way to implement lane closures that meet public health objectives without inducing a bunch of socialization.

As Toronto finally taking steps toward some closures, the city should take a data-driven approach that takes into account the reasons people need to leave the house.

To start, look at where the most pedestrians were before the pandemic. Toronto collects data on pedestrian volumes at over 2,000 intersections. These are not counts taken during the pandemic — travel patterns have obviously changed, especially in some areas like the financial core — but they provide a good foundation for helping to determine where the city sees a lot of people using their feet to get around in more typical times, and where pedestrian traffic is likely to build up as the city starts to slowly reopen.

Mapping the top 100 busiest pedestrian intersections looks like this:

As expected, most of them are in the downtown core, so it makes sense to focus there. The next consideration should be doctors, nurses and other hospital workers. Lots of them do not have cars and need to get to work safely. So add major hospitals to the map:

For the rest of us, the major reason for going outside these days is to get groceries. So add major grocery store locations to the map:

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OK, real talk. For some of us, the LCBO is also a major reason we’re leaving home. Those should be on the map too:

Now connect the dots. Our map includes both the places that have seen the highest pedestrian volumes and the locations people are leaving the house to access during the pandemic:

Streets with lane closures in this scenario would include Bloor Street, Bathurst Street, Yonge Street, Front Street, Parliament Street and Dundas Street. This would serve downtown neighbourhoods like Kensington, St. James Town, Regent Park, St. Lawrence, the Church Street Village, Alexandra Park and Cabbagetown — dense neighbourhoods with low rates of car ownership.

And while any kind of lane closures would need to be monitored to ensure they aren’t causing spontaneous socialization, it’s important to know that the people who live in these areas were relying on walking and cycling to get around before the pandemic. According to the 2016 census, 43 per cent of people living in these downtown neighbourhoods were walking or cycling to get to work. Less than one in four were driving.

In other words, closing lanes in these areas should not be seen as a move that will encourage people to get outside and walk or cycle. Instead, try looking at it as creating more space in the places where cyclists and pedestrians already are.