Why the events happening in Ukraine are so important for the global geopolitics? Why internal matters of Ukraine are so important that global media was so much busy in spreading their views and propaganda? Was it all mere a political crisis in Ukraine? Was it only because of integration to EU? Or there were international powers like the west and Russia trying to expand their buffer region. It can also be all of it. What happened in Ukraine could be the biggest clash of ideology in the region after the fall of the Iron Curtain.

For the west and the U.S it could be their much needed diplomatic victory after their diplomatic loss to Putin in Syria. Putin did his calculations right in understanding that the current government in Ukraine will not survive. He backed off and assured that Russia is ready to cooperate with any government in Ukraine. On the one hand west has entered Russian half brother with its ideology, on the other hand Ukraine can help European economy depend less on Turkey and Middle East to access energy rich areas around Caspian via Black Sea. If it really happens in Ukraine, Russia will be threatened to see more western activities in Black Sea. At the later stage, western powers will have an opportunity to block Russia from entering strategic Mediterranean Sea, that is where Syria is.

Quest for Crimea

Now the question is what will happen to autonomous region of Crimea. Crimea, though essentially is a part of Ukraine, it has the highest population of Russians (60%) in Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine has traditionally been closer to Russia, whereas western Ukraine closer to Europe. While one can say west Ukrainians are anti Russia, but to say eastern Ukrainians as anti Europe may not be true. This was visible in Ukraine as there were only few support rallies for the President, despite he came to power by winning democratic elections. Crimea and Kharkov were the strongest hold of Party of Regions, but even they feel deceived now as they did not expect their elected president to flee. Crimea is geopolitcally interesting as it also holds the second largest naval port in the Black Sea at Sevastapol operated by the Russians. According to the treaty that Ukraine and Russia signed in 1997, Russia can hold the naval base for another 3 years. The treaty which gave this port to Russia for 20 years has not been renewed and the new pro Europe government is about to come. Does it mean the base slipping away from the hands of Russians? Probably, no.

In 2010, then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed Kharkiv Pact with Ukraine whereby the Russian lease on naval facilities at Sevastapol, Crimea was extended beyond 2017 by 25 years (to 2042) with an additional 5 year renewal option (to 2047) in exchange for a multiyear contract to provide Ukraine with up to 30% cheaper Russian natural gas. However, when there was voting going on over this pact in the Ukrainian parliament, almost all the member of opposition were either absent or abstained from voting. Former Prime Minister and probably the most popular choice for the next leader of Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko and her party holds the agreement illegal as the agreement violates a part of Ukrainian constitution which forbids Ukraine from hosting foreign military bases after 2017. Russia would not like to lose this base, and it will be very interesting to see how the tables are turned to keep Russia’s interests in the region secured. Putin has already made clear that he is ready to cooperate with any government in Ukraine and that no signed agreements and benefits given to Ukraine will be changed.

Amid the high profile protests at Maidan in Kiev, Russia and Ukraine signed some of the biggest agreements on 17th December 2013, which received very less attention. This further shows how important is Crimea for Russia. The agreement stated that Russia and Ukraine will begin to negotiate on a bilateral agreement in early 2014 on the renewal of weaponry and military equipment of the Russian Black Sea fleet. This allows Russia to send new naval units to Sevastapol and add to the existing fleet, which are expected to enter service by the end of 2020. The agreement also had a clause that will allow Russia to condition financial aid to Ukraine over receiving access to strategic military industrial locations in Ukraine which are all in the south east of the country. In return Ukraine got $15billion bailout and 33% discount on gas from Russia, a move that is expected to give Ukraine 3% rise in growth in 2014.

Earlier this month, Ukraine and Russia discussed the possibilities of stirring up cooperation in civil and military shipbuilding on the Ukrainian territory as part of meeting of First Deputy Industrial Policy Ministers of Ukraine Mykola Yevdokymenko and Deputy Industry and Trade Minister of Russia Alexei RakhmanovAlso. It was agreed by the both parties that Ukraine will present production facilities of shipyards in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Feodosiya and Sevastopol to Russians. Russia does not have shipbuilding yards in the Black Sea and performs only repairs on the sites in Bulgaria (Black Sea), Kaliningrad (Baltic), St. Petersburg (Baltic) and Severodinsk (north). If this also slips away from the hands of Russians then sustaining a permanent squadron in the Mediterranean composed of five to six ships from the Black Sea fleet would be a difficult task.

To sum it up, it is the victory of people in Ukraine for the protesters, it is the diplomatic victory of west over Russia. It is now up to Ukraine to maintain the agreements or reverse it. Ukraine has other sources of gas too, and before deciding not to sign EU Association Agreement, Ukraine had stepped up its gas imports from Poland. While Russia gave a promising hope of 3% rise in Ukraine’s economic growth in 2014, we need to see will EU be able to help Ukraine step up its economy and help it come out of $10 billion foreign debt to Russia? Or it was just a political game for EU’s self interest. After huge propaganda by media worldwide and a burst of wave in Ukraine, it will take another 1-2 years for people to realize what was good for them and what was not.