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The winter transfer window hasn’t closed longer than five minutes before thoughts immediately shift to it opening again in the summer. In the case of Liverpool, this has resulted in talk of Kai Havertz, Timo Werner, Jadon Sancho and even Kylian Mbappé. Of course, with Jurgen Klopp’s forward line well established at this point, talk soon leads to discussions of which of Liverpool’s attacking trident is sacrificed in order to fit in a shiny new toy.

Is it the player Pep Lijnders previously said best represent our way? The player Klopp said, unlike the other two, was “world-class, pretty much every day”? That man is, of course, Roberto Firmino. Based on how crucial those in charge of the playing staff believe he is, it seems unlikely he will be the one shelved for a new attacking option.

Attention turns then to Sadio Mané, the player who has evolved into a world-class attacking talent under Klopp’s tutelage; the newly crowned African Player of the Year, who many had tipped to win the Ballon d’Or recently. He is another player that seems adored by those at the club and whose quality has Zinedine Zidane earmarking him as the man to breathe new life into a fading Real Madrid side.

So, if it’s not Firmino or Mané, it must be Mohamed Salah then Both Charlie Adams and Darren Bent have spent the mid-season break talking up the idea of him being disposable. Fifteen minutes on football Twitter searching his name will lead you to the words ‘selfish’, ‘over-rated’ and ‘inconsistent’ often uttered in relation to the Egyptian international. One particular Everton fan described Salah as a Sunday League player but with pace.

(Image: Craque Stats)

(Click here to view a high definition version of this image.)

Let’s be very clear about who is being criticised here: Mohamed Salah has been the most effective player in the Premier League since his arrival at Liverpool in the summer of 2017. In terms of end product, no player comes close to him over the last two and a half seasons. He has performed at 23% above the nearest player on the list (Sergio Aguero). In fact, he has just 20 goals and assists fewer than both Mané and Firmino combined. This isn’t to say Salah is better than either Firmino or Mané. There is more to the game of football than goals and assists. Trying to make such declarations based on two data points feels a little reductive. However, at the absolute minimum, it should have earned him much more respect than he seems to be afforded in the press and even from some factions of the Liverpool fanbase.

(Image: Craque Stats)

(Click here to view a high definition version of this image.)

We also have the problem of expectation bias influencing how people perceive a player’s performances. It’s perfectly reasonable to suggest Salah isn’t performing at the levels we saw during his debut campaign for Liverpool. As you can see above, in terms of his shooting metrics, he was incredible that campaign notching a non-penalty goal almost every single game on average. However, it is clear from the data above that he is performing at or above the level he was last season for the Reds, a season in which he won his second consecutive Golden Boot award for his 22 goals, while also finishing the season with eight assists; this was behind only full-back pair of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson at Liverpool.

Does expectation bias mean all players are not measured equally for their achievements this season? There have been numerous polls on Twitter his week revolving around who Liverpool’s player of the season should be. The likes of Firmino, Mané, Virgil van Dijk, Alisson Becker, Alexander-Arnold and Jordan Henderson have all appeared on one poll or another. Salah’s name is conspicuous by its absence though. Taking it a step further, his name isn’t being mentioned in the same breath as the Premier League’s Player of the Year award. In fact, we saw Marcus Rashford being placed in combined XI’s ahead of Salah before the recent clash between Manchester United and Liverpool.

(Image: Craque Stats)

(Click here to view a high definition version of this image.)

Yet despite having his best ever season in the Premier League, Rashford is still some distance behind the Egyptian international across the board in attacking metrics. The reason is simply that Rashford is having an outstanding season in comparison to his personal best previous season, while Salah is performing below what he did during 2017/18. The expectation on the two players is different and therefore the narrative surrounding their performances is different, despite the fact that Salah has performed at a level measurably above the young English forward this season.

That is before we even touch on the extenuating circumstances surrounding Salah’s performances this season. After being scythed down by Hamza Choudhury in the closing moments of Liverpool’s 2-1 victory over Leicester in October, Mohamed Salah suffered a sprained ankle. Klopp was clearly furious with this tackle, and rightly so.

(Image: Craque Stats)

(Click here to view a high definition version of this image.)

As we can see above, the tackle effectively wrote off ten weeks of Salah’s season. During that time, he featured in only four of Liverpool’s seven league games, missing the matches against Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Everton.

When he was involved, he looked a shadow of the player the Kop has crowned as the ‘Egyptian King’. He was averaging an Open Play (OP) Expected Goal Involvement of just 0.32 per match (or once every three games). To put that into perspective, Christian Benteke averaged 0.32 per match in 2015/16 for Liverpool. Fans were expecting Liverpool’s most productive ever forward and were instead managing with a diminutive, curly-haired Benteke.

Contrast that now with Salah’s performance since the 0-3 win at Bournemouth. Salah has averaged 1.08 per match in Open Play (OP) Expected Goal Involvement, a 338% improvement on his mini-Benteke form while playing through the pain barrier. Note that, during his first season at Liverpool in 2017/18, Salah averaged 0.84 per match in this metric.

This brings us to one final question: can Salah attain those dizzying heights of 2017/18 once more? Maybe. Referring back to the above graphic detailing his last five seasons of football, we can see his shot count is rising once again towards the 4.36 per 90 he had in 2017/18. The ratio of shots he gets on target looks fairly consistent throughout his career. However, the 45%+ conversion rate of those shots on target that he maintained throughout his time at Roma and in his first season at Liverpool has dipped down to ~32% in each of his last two seasons with the Reds.

(Image: Craque Stats)

(Click here to view a high definition version of this image.)

However, it seems the club are already taking steps to make Salah more efficient in front of goal. As you can see above in these density plots, there is a high concentration of shots during his time at Roma on the left side of the penalty area. As a left-footed player starting on the right wing, it is natural to see him come inside onto his stronger foot and shoot from these positions.

(Image: Craque Stats)

(Click here to view a high definition version of this image.)

Looking now at the left image above for his 2018/19 season, he is having more shots in central zones than during his time at Roma. However, he having a large concentration of shots on the right of the box from ~20 yards from goal. This largely explains his shooting inefficiency last season, with only one of his shots from outside the box resulting in a goal, although that goal was the memorable game-clinching screamer against Chelsea.

This season’s shot density map (right image) for Salah is interesting. He has continued his evolution and now is taking as many if not more shots from the prime real estate centrally in front of goal. Salah has also cut down on the shots from outside the box with the few is taking now being much more central and closer to the goal. We are yet to see this improvement of his process reflected in his output. However, it seems reasonable to expect a player taking more shots in better shot locations and fewer from poor shot locations to see an improvement in the future in terms of goals scored.

This should put Salah in a good position to claim his third consecutive Golden Boot Award; a feat only achieved twice thus far in the Premier League era by Alan Shearer and Thierry Henry.

*All data and graphics used in this article are provided by @CraqueStats