Election prognosticator Charlie Cook (who I like and respect) has been quick to trash Democratic chances this November. Just a few short weeks ago, he said:

[It's} very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House.

It was actually pretty easy to come up with a scenario where the GOP didn't pick up nearly 40 seats, but Cook --who in December 2007 was predicting Democratic gains of 2-7 House seats in 2008 when they won 21 -- was sticking to his guns.

It's not a new phenomenon -- the Beltway crowd is quick to pounce on perceived Democratic vulnerabilities, and slow to respond to Republican ones; just another facet of your liberal media at work. Still, it was a weird call for Cook to make, since Republicans would have to take out 33 incumbents to win back the House. As Chris Bowers notes, that is all but impossible:

In 2006 and 2008, Democrats won the national popular vote by 6.49% and 8.65% respectively. Despite this, they still only defeated 37 Republican incumbents in those two years combined. With Republicans nowhere close to that level of strength in the generic congressional ballot, it is still more likely than not that Democrats will retain control of the House.

The signs are certainly not there for a massive Republican wave. In fact, what early advantages Republicans have had appear to be receding:

For example, there's the new Ipsos poll for McClatchy newspapers:

Looking ahead to November's elections, 50 percent said they'd vote for Democratic candidates if the election were today, while 40 percent said they'd vote for Republicans.

The Pollster.com poll composite shows the two parties neck and neck:

But take out the crappy YouGov internet poll (which leans Democratic) and Rasmussen, and you get:

Rasmussen's numbers are single-handedly propping up the GOP, showing leads that no other credible pollsters shows. But even with Rasmussen's suspect numbers included, the trend is certainly up for Democrats.

That's not all. Republicans are losing top recruits, including this one from a swing D+2 district in Oregon:

Initially lauded by Republicans nationally as their best hope to win a House seat long held by Democrats, [Springfield, Oregon, Mayor Sid] Leiken faced an uphill battle against [Rep. Peter] DeFazio, a 24-year incumbent. Leiken did poorly in campaign fundraising; as of the most recent filings, DeFazio had at his disposal more than 100 times Leiken’s campaign cash. Plus, observers said Leiken’s violation of Oregon campaign laws last year could have hurt him. Leiken paid a $2,250 fine for unlawfully converting $2,000 of his mayoral campaign money to personal use.

And Alabama Rep. Bobby Bright, a supposed goner considering he represents a district that is R+16, shows that, well, he's not a goner:

A new poll conducted for Rep. Bobby Bright's (D-AL) campaign shows that while he may sit in a very vulnerable CD, he starts out in strong shape for re-election. The survey, conducted by Anzalone-Liszt (D), shows Bright leading Montgomery Councilor Martha Roby (R), AL school board member Stephanie Bell (R) and businessman Rick Barber (R) handily. The survey was conducted 2/8-11, among 500 LVs; It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was first posted in the Montgomery Advertiser. General Election Matchups

Bright 54% Bright 55%

Roby 30 Bell 29 Bright 58

Barber 26

If Republicans can't compete against the Bobby Brights of the party -- freshmen congresscritters in tough Southern districts, or field top-tier candidates against the DeFazios in competitive swing districts, then their chances of massive national gains are all but nil.

Heck, even Cook seems to have noticed. Today, he made several race rating changes, including Bobby Bright's:

Governors Ratings Changes TX GOV Lean R to Toss Up House Ratings Changes AL-02 Bobby Bright Toss Up to Lean D AR-01 OPEN (Berry) Lean R to Toss Up NC-08 Larry Kissell Lean D to Likely D

I suspect we'll be seeing more of this in the coming weeks. Democrats have suffered their nadir well in advance of November's elections. Republicans like Jim Bunning have reminded voters of the GOP agenda. Health care reform is just weeks away from passing (yes, I'm an optimist), giving Democrats an epic and hard-fought victory, and Republicans continue to face severe funding gaps at all levels.

Their one advantage, the intensity gap, is in jeopardy as the teabaggers splinter and begin supporting either fringe or third-party challengers, and Democrats are starting to wake up (thanks Blanche!).

At this point, Democrats are still poised to suffer setbacks in November, but no chamber will change hands. Yet Republicans have so convinced themselves of their epic victory against "socialism," that even incremental gains will shatter them. Their expectations have been set so high, aided by Cook and other analysts like him jumping the gun, that meeting them is an impossibility.

And therein lies our own motivation: We help build the firewall, protect our most valuable members, lose some of our (Blue Doggy) deadweight, play offense in some key places, and deny Republicans their triumph, and we've won the cycle.

Playing defense isn't as glamorous as playing offense, but if we come out of it a more cohesive party, we've won, and if we shatter the GOP's will in the process, so much the better.