Browns Future QB Tracker, Week 1

The Browns Future QB Tracker after week one of the 2016 NFL season, projecting which quarterbacks could be the long-term answer for the Browns.

(Doug Lesmerises, cleveland.com)

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Welcome to the future. Ideally, it's a little more hopeful than the present, at least when it comes to the Browns and quarterbacks.

As the 2016 season unfolds, we're going to run a complementary view here looking at, honestly, a more important question than whether the Browns are going to win each Sunday this year.

Who is the Browns' future franchise quarterback? So this is the Browns Future QB Tracker.

Each week we'll look at college quarterbacks, quarterbacks on other NFL teams and, yes, even current Browns and assign a percentage chance to whether these players are the future quarterback.

Not the starting quarterback in 2017, necessarily. Future franchise quarterback. The sure-thing starter for 2018, 2019, 2020 and beyond is really what we're aiming for here.

The answer.

The chances will change based on the Browns' record and projected draft position, how the college quarterbacks are playing and are viewed as prospects, and the existing quarterback situations of various NFL teams. If there are great college QBs, but the Browns are 6-6 and looking to pick in the teens, those great quarterbacks won't be as high on this list.

That isn't the case right now.

Per ESPN Football Power Index, Browns:

*have 1.6% to lose out

*don’t have better than 39% to win any 1 game

*have 45% chance to get top pick — Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 13, 2016

Like a name you don't see on our list? Tell us in the comments and maybe he'll slip onto the list in future weeks.

While there's a great big world of quarterbacks out there, it seems like we should be able to get a handle by the end of the regular season who the real contenders are. There could be a lot of movement. If we had done this last week, Robert Griffin III would have been much higher on the list than he is right now.

And if we had done it a year ago, we might have thrown a one percent chance on the former No. 2 overall pick who was riding the bench in Washington -- and been right on Griffin at least for a week.

So follow our Browns coverage every week. And every Wednesday, check in here to think about the future.

Onto the candidates for the Browns Future QB Tracker, Week 1.

* Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 30 percent: He had to take the top spot in the tracker debut. The college junior has topped many early draft boards since leading the Tigers to the National Championship Game last season. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Watson has the arm and downfield touch to serve as an NFL pocket passer, but he comes with the bonus running ability that made him the first quarterback in major college football history to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season. Over the course of this fall, his NFL skills will be picked apart, because he's already so good. But he won't ever fade far on this list barring unforeseen circumstances.

Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson has thrown for 270 yards per game with four touchdowns and three interceptions as the Tigers are off to a 2-0 start without looking as sharp as a year ago.

* DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame, 29 percent: It took one game for Kizer to make the top of this list debatable. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, the junior from Toledo Central Catholic ripped apart Texas in the opener and had draft analysts salivating while throwing for 215 yards and five touchdowns.

Throw in his Ohio roots and the fact he's a little bigger than Watson, and his bandwagon should be adding followers all year. It's early, but if this is your Goff-Wentz debate this season, and the Browns are in the top two, you'll like their spot.

* Josh Rosen, UCLA, 10 percent: There's a drop, because the top two make so much sense right now and the Browns seem so positioned to land one of the top two picks. So the third spot goes to the projected overall No. 1 pick - in 2018.

Many Browns fans don't want to think of this. But Rosen is a true sophomore, so this would require the Browns passing on a top quarterback in 2017 and suffering through another down season next year. But the 6-foot-4, 218-pounder has to make the list. He's thrown for 305 yards per game but was picked off three times in a season-opening loss to Texas A&M.

* Brad Kaaya, Miami, 8 percent: College QB No. 4, Kaaya is generally viewed as the third-best prospect in this draft for now. But the 6-foot-4 junior threw two interceptions and no touchdowns in his last outing against Florida Atlantic, his first multi-interception performance since the sixth game of his freshman season.

* Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots, 5 percent: Hey, it's an actual pro. Someone has to lead the backup quarterback brigade of current No. 2s who could become the Browns' future No. 1. May as well start with the guy getting the four-game audition during Tom Brady's suspension.

The 6-foot-2, 225-pounder threw for 182 yards and a touchdown as the Pats beat Arizona thanks to a last-second missed field goal. By the end of the year, Browns fans should at least know how to spell his last name.

* Cody Kessler, Browns, 4 percent: And now we get to the current roster. Third-round picks aren't free. The Browns used one on Kessler in the spring, and before we get to every other quarterback available in the free world, this former USC quarterback should get some kind of audition this season.

* Robert Griffin III, Browns, 3 percent: Before his injury, based on Sashi Brown saying he wasn't a short-term venture, Griffin would have been much higher on this list. But after getting knocked out for at least the next eight games with a fractured non-throwing shoulder, his long-term chance may be over before it really started.

* Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers, 2 percent: He's a Super Bowl quarterback and a Hue Jackson favorite. He's also only 28. The idea of a second act of his career coming in Cleveland isn't out of the question, especially after he was linked to the Browns for a while in March. If he's not Chip Kelly's answer in San Francisco, and he's not for now, he could be someone else's quarterback next year.

* Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings, 2 percent: Let's see him start a game in Minnesota first. But he's also only 28, so maybe a third team in two years would be the charm.

* Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 2 percent: Back to college. The 6-foot-2, 224-pounder is the top senior quarterback on most draft boards. He has seven touchdowns and three picks this season.

* Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, 1 percent: Now we're into stat-watching. Mahomes leads the nation, throwing for 511 yards per game. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound junior once threw for 598 yards in a game against Baylor two years ago.

* Davis Webb, Cal, 1 percent: Jared Goff's replacement in Berkeley is second at 482 yards per game. Goff averaged 363 passing yards per game last year. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound grad transfer from Texas Tech also probably has larger hands than Goff.

* Luke Falk, Washington State, 1 percent: And Falk, at 6-foot-4 and 216 pounds, is third in the nation, at 449 yards per game.

* C.J. Beathard, Iowa, 1 percent: The 6-foot-2, 209-pound senior led the Hawkeyes to an undefeated regular season in 2015. He's thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions in two games while averaging 214 passing yards per game.

* J.T. Barrett, Ohio State, 1 percent: No Cardale Jones for the Browns. How about this Ohio State QB? First, the redshirt junior has to decide if he's staying at Ohio State for a fifth year in 2017 or heading to the NFL. Then the NFL has to decide if he reminds anyone of Russell Wilson.