Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants New York state to legalize recreational marijuana. Some state lawmakers, including Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, D-Buffalo, have long supported the idea. But there has been pushback to Cuomo’s proposal. Assemblymember Patricia Fahy, a Democrat from the Albany area, favors starting with decriminalization but raises concerns about youth usage and driving under the influence, among other issues.

Fahy wrote an op-ed in the Times-Union of Albany and discussed her concerns in media interviews.

In an interview with radio host Susan Arbetter, Fahy questioned how much tax money New York state would collect if recreational marijuana became legal.

"Everybody thinks that this is going to be a massive money-maker," she said. "There are projections of $200 to $400 million additional in New York state. We are seeing all those numbers reach disappointing levels in the states that have legalized. They’re not meeting their targets for the most part."

The Cuomo administration predicts $300 million in tax revenue from the sale of recreational marijuana once legalization is fully phased in, according to budget materials. But is Fahy correct? Have other states missed their revenue targets?

Background

Ten other states and the District of Columbia have legalized recreational marijuana, though Vermont and DC do not allow commercial sales.

An assessment by New York State agencies on the effects of legalization, published in July 2018, warned that "some states overestimated revenue initially, as they did not account for the length of time it takes for a recreational market to be established, leading to fewer than expected sales."

We asked Fahy’s spokesman, Alexander Flood, for evidence of her claim. He pointed us to California, where the state collected less than it anticipated in the first full year of marijuana sales after a rocky rollout. He also referred us to reporting that showed that Colorado’s revenues didn’t meet expectations in the beginning.

"The complexity of the laws at the state level being rolled out has, in turn, complicated revenue projections for these states," Flood wrote in an email.

We looked at revenue results in states that have legalized commercial sales:

Maine is still working on its rules and regulations, and Michigan just legalized in November 2018.

While many states have seen impressive growth in revenue, predicting future revenue may be complicated. States have a difficult time predicting usage, pricing and how legalization in nearby states affect tax revenues, according to a report from Pew Charitable Trusts and the Rockefeller Institute for Government, both nonpartisan organizations. However, researchers wrote that "volatility in marijuana tax collections has been less of an issue and has primarily stemmed from seasonality."

Our ruling

Fahy said states that have legalized recreational marijuana "are not meeting their targets for the most part."

It is true that, at first, some states struggled to meet their targets because of a slower than expected rollout of legalization. This occurred in Colorado, California and Alaska. Revenue, however, has grown in Colorado and Alaska. Oregon, Washington state and Nevada never had problems reaching their targets.

To say that states aren’t meeting their revenue targets "for the most part" doesn’t give a clear picture of what’s happening with legalized marijuana in the states.

We rate Fahy’s statement Mostly False.