Despite overwhelmingly being in support of leaving the EU at the Brexit referendum, farmers are increasingly gloomy now that they are staring down the reality of what leaving will entail.

In two years, confidence levels on the outlook for the next three years, as measured by the National Farmers’ Union (NFU), have plummeted to just above zero from a high of 19 points on the positive side, in the wake of the general election being called and Brexit being set.

The NFU takes regular soundings of its members and measures their confidence on a scale of 0-100 positive and 0-100 negative points, with zero representing a neutral outlook.

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Data on farmers’ investment intentions adds to the gloom. One in five farmers said they were reducing their investment, while only half that number were planning to increase their investments in the next year, as a result of the EU referendum.



“Farmer confidence is absolutely critical to the future of a profitable and productive food and farming sector,” said Meurig Raymond, president of the NFU, warning it was a red flag to the incoming government. “In such a period of uncertainty politically, we need politicians to fully understand the impact this lack of clarity is having economically.”

Farmers were among the staunchest supporters of leaving the EU, despite their dependence on subsidies of up to €3bn (£2.5bn) they receive each year. Rural voters opted in large numbers to leave the EU in most of the country, excluding Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Wales.

Before the referendum, many farmers told the Guardian they preferred to be outside the EU despite the lack of certainty on future subsidies, because they disliked EU regulations or were confident the UK could compete independently with other countries.

However, since the referendum farmers have also raised concerns that the end of free movement and the single market could be severe blows to business. Tens of thousands of migrant workers, mostly from former Eastern Europe, are required seasonally for harvesting, and the majority of the UK’s food and farming export trade is with the EU. The loss of the former will raise costs and if farmers are penalised by EU trade tariffs, their exports are likely to suffer markedly.

Puzzlingly, the gloom among farmers post-referendum contrasts sharply with a positive outlook for the short term. When farmers were asked about their confidence levels in the outlook for the next year, the results were markedly different. From confidence levels deep in negative territory – at 18 points below zero, the worst levels in more than seven years – in April 2016, before the referendum, their short-term outlook bounced back this spring to +17, its highest point in four years.

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Farmers’ confidence varies widely from season to season, based not just on the prevailing political outlook but heavily dependent on weather conditions, demand in the market, harvests overseas and price levels for key produce. The weak pound, EU subsidies for the next two years and access to EU markets could boost confidence.

But Raymond warned that these were short-term factors. “We all know farming businesses are long-term, and cannot rely on currency fluctuations,” he said.

Farmers’ reluctance to put money into future investment, in new machinery, stock or materials, was also of particular concern, he said. “Investment in farming is integral to our ability to produce food efficiently and sustainably, ensuring food security and farming’s huge contribution to the health and wealth of the nation. With just 10% willing to increase investment in their business, it does not paint a pretty picture for the progressive industry that we are striving to be,” he said.

The government has reassured farmers that the current subsidy regime will continue until 2020 at least, but the prospects for taxpayer payments to farmers beyond that are uncertain.

Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party are adamant that any future support for farmers must depend on them taking action to preserve and protect the environment, including through high animal welfare standards, providing habitats for wildlife, managing hedgerows, waterways and other features of the landscape, and altering farming methods to protect against flooding. A study published last week found that intensive agriculture was the prime cause of damage to the UK’s floodplains, with dire consequences for urban areas downstream.

Raymond said the next government would play a key role in deciding the fate of farmers in the wake of Brexit. “We need a competent and reliable workforce, a fit-for-purpose domestic agricultural policy, and the right trade deals. To address this debilitating uncertainty [politicians] needs to give the industry as many assurances as possible.”