The economic cost of COVID-19 is going to be huge. A shut down for a month literally means a hole of at least 8.5% in annual output. Consumption (C), which accounts for almost 63% of GDP, is not likely to recover to that level, for this year at least. The view among most economists is that the annual GDP growth is likely to be at about 0.5% or less.

This implies that annual consumption will decrease by about 6-8%. Many others think the decline in consumption will be greater and growth could be sub zero How soon consumption recovers depends on how soon the lockdown ends and how soon job losses are restored?