Post-RFRA poll loaded with bad news for Gov. Mike Pence

A new poll has bad news for Gov. Mike Pence on the eve of his formal re-election announcement: A majority of voters want a new governor.

The poll shows that Pence's reputation has continued to plummet following a controversy over Indiana's religious freedom law, with 54 percent of voters saying they favor a new governor. Less than a third said they would re-elect Pence.

"We have not seen any evidence of recovery for Governor Pence since the poll we conducted in mid-April for Howey Politics," said Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research, who conducted the survey on behalf of former Angie's List CEO Bill Oesterle, a staunch RFRA opponent.

"In fact, the numbers for him are worse," Matthews said, "suggesting that even though RFRA is no longer making headlines, it has not been forgotten. This may be one of those situations where a sleeping giant has been kicked and is now wide awake."

The poll of 1,000 registered voters found that Pence's favorability rating has fallen an additional six points since a similar poll in April, shortly after the uproar surrounding the state's Religious Freedom Restoration Act. About 34 percent of voters gave him a favorable rating, while 43 percent gave him an unfavorable rating.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Although a majority of voters expressed an appetite for a new governor, they seemed less likely to oust Pence when matched head-to-head with his two most likely Democratic opponents. Still, the poll shows that the state's top post is within reach for Democrats.

In a race against former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg, who narrowly lost to Pence in 2012, the poll found that voters favored Gregg 41 percent to 40 percent for Pence. A face off with state schools chief Glenda Ritz would result in a tie, with Pence and Ritz both receiving 42 percent of the vote, the poll found.

The results showed that voter dissatisfaction was driven by Pence's handling of two issues: RFRA and education.

Pence signed the state's new RFRA law in March during a private ceremony attended by some of the state's most outspoken lobbyists on conservative religious issues. Intended to protect business owners and others with strong religious beliefs, critics said it could allow gay and lesbians to be denied services. Boycott threats and the potential loss of convention and sports events forced Pence and the Republican-controlled General Assembly to revise the law a week later to prevent it from eroding local nondiscrimination ordinances.

Pence is also coming off a high-profile power struggle with Ritz over her chairmanship of the state board of education. Ultimately, Pence's effort to strip her of that authority resulted in a reconstituted board and the ability to appoint a new chairman after Ritz's term ends.

The poll found that 54 percent of Hoosier voters support adding sexual orientation and gender identity to Indiana's civil rights laws, while 32 percent oppose the idea. The issue is likely to come up during next year's legislative session. Gregg and Ritz have expressed support for that idea, while Pence has not.

Robert Vane, a spokesman for Pence's re-election campaign, was reviewing the poll results and had no immediate comments on it Wednesday morning.

But he said Pence plans to focus on his administration's successes during a sold-out re-election kick off announcement Thursday evening at the Indiana Republican Party's Spring Dinner in Indianapolis.

Those successes include 100,000 new private sector jobs, increases in education spending, and the alternative Medicaid expansion program, HIP 2.0, Vane said.

"He's not going to go up in front of the podium and say everything is great, everything is wonderful," Vane said. "But what he is going to say is that the successes of his administration far outweigh any one particular misstep or controversy. The totality of Mike Pence's time as governor has been beneficial to Hoosiers."

Democrats were quick to seize on the poll results.

"Mike Pence can no longer hide from the Hoosiers he ignored when he chose to prioritize his out of touch ideology ahead of the best interests and well-being of Indiana," said Indiana Democratic Party Chairman John Zody. "The numbers from this Republican poll show Hoosiers are fed up and know that we can do better than Mike Pence."

He said Democrats will prioritize adding protections for gays, lesbians and transgender people in state law and focus on issues such as the economy and education.

Call Star reporter Tony Cook at (317) 444-6081. Follow him on Twitter: @indystartony.