2013 College football countdown | No. 113: North Texas

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

North Texas has its new stadium, which is lovely, and a new home in Conference USA, a decided upgrade over the Sun Belt Conference. Now that these factors are settled, what UNT needs desperately is its Seneca Wallace.

You remember Wallace – if not from his turn at Iowa State, at least from his near-decade as a do-everything skill player in the NFL. It was Wallace who gave coach Dan McCarney's team that extra jolt in the early 2000s, lending a well-coached team the sort of limitless, ankle-breaking talent it needed to finally get over the hump against its Big 12 bullies.

More than a decade later, McCarney is searching for a Wallace in Denton. North Texas is technically sound, more often than not; what's missing is some greased lightning, and the dearth of playmakers is again a concern as the Mean Green prepare for a raised level of competition in Conference USA.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

Now, consider two big-picture factors. The first: North Texas is certainly getting better under McCarney, but it's too soon to think of this team as bowl-worthy, or as a Sun Belt leader. This team's goal should be further improvement while the program as a whole prepares for the upcoming conference swap. Secondly: Arkansas State – despite the coaching change – Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida International and Western Kentucky are farther along in the process. UNT doesn't quite match up with that group both in personnel and scheme – meaning the Mean Green aren't as well-versed in this new system as those conference rivals are in theirs. While it would be nice for North Texas to end its Sun Belt run atop the league, I doubt that comes to pass.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: North Texas had only one win of consequence, a 30-23 victory over Louisiana-Lafayette on national television, and can only make a case for two wins that got away, a 14-7 defeat to Troy and a 25-24 decision to Western Kentucky in the season finale. It was a bit of a bore, this team, with so little explosiveness and such little flavor, and the Mean Green need a spark before taking the field against Idaho to begin the 2013 season. The Mean Green also could use an offense: UNT finished 105th nationally in scoring, primarily as a result of a weak passing game. Defense would also help: UNT has improved, especially since the Todd Dodge days, but there's a tremendous amount of room for further progression.

— High point: The win over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Mean Green outlasted Mark Hudspeth's Ragin' Cajuns, pulling away late in a game televised nationally by ESPN.

— Low point: The close losses hurt, but UNT was often on the sour end of a double-digit defeat. Six losses came by two or more touchdowns: LSU (41-14), Kansas State (35-21), Houston (44-21), Middle Tennessee State (38-21), Arkansas State (37-19) and Louisiana-Monroe (42-16).

— Tidbit: UNT has only four winning seasons the past two decades. Three came in a row, from 2002-4, when the Mean Green put a stranglehold on the Sun Belt behind coach Darrell Dickey. The other came in 1994, under first-year coach Matt Simon, when UNT finished 7-4-1. Since firing Dickey following the 2006 season – he's now the offensive coordinator at Memphis – the Mean Green have gone 17-55.

— Tidbit (magic number edition): UNT's magic number is 100 – as in rushing yards by one player in a single game. Since McCarney took over in 2011, UNT is 7-2 when it has a 100-yard rusher and 2-13 when not. The exceptions are a 41-24 loss to Tulsa in 2011 and last season's loss to Western Kentucky.

— Tidbit (home sweet home edition): UNT has made itself a home at Apogee Stadium, going 7-4 at home since christening the new facility for the 2011 season. In comparison, the Mean Green won only five games at home over the previous six seasons.

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 3: RB Lance Dunbar (Dallas), FB Jamize Olawale (Oakland), LB Craig Robertson (Cleveland).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— College coaches, first name Dan (or Daniel, Danny, etc.)

1. Dan Devine (173-56-9, 1955-80).

2. Danny Ford (122-59-5, 1978-97).

3. Danny Hale (173-56-1, 1973-present).

4. Dan Boisture (45-20-3, 1967-73).

5. Dan McCarney (65-100, 1995-present).

COACHING

— Dan McCarney (Iowa '75), 9-15 after two seasons with North Texas. McCarney went 5-7 in 2011 and 4-8 a year ago, ending UNT's Sun Belt existence on a bit of a low note, but he's also helped oversee the program's growth as it moves into Conference USA and becomes more comfortable in its new facilities at Apogee Stadium. Though he's had some health issues over the last two years, McCarney seems perpetually energized by the process of rebuilding UNT, something he's become familiar with during his decades as a college coach.

It was about time that McCarney got a second shot at running his own program, as he achieved enough in 12 seasons at Iowa State to more than deserve another opportunity. As was the case in Denton over the last two seasons – and will continue to be the case, one would think – the odds were stacked against McCarney and the Cyclones; nevertheless, McCarney left in 2006 as the program's all-time leader in wins (56) and bowl appearances (five), making a pretty easy claim to being the finest coach in ISU history. Among his other highlights in Ames: 2004 Big 12 Coach of the Year; five of the program's 17 seven-win seasons; the first nine-win season in 94 years in 2000; and, that same year, the program's first bowl win.

So you can understand why the masses were left shaking their heads when Iowa State opted to dismiss McCarney in late 2006, when his Cyclones slipped to 4-8 after back-to-back bowl berths. He was snatched up quickly: McCarney spent one year at South Florida as the assistant head coach and defensive line coach before spending the next three seasons at Florida in the same capacity. The Gators won the national championship in 2008, McCarney's debut season in Gainesville, and returned to the BCS a year later. But it's not the national title and BCS experience that made McCarney so attractive to UNT; it helps, but it's far from his defining characteristic.

What defines McCarney is what he achieved with the Cyclones, as well as his work as a Hayden Fry assistant at Iowa from 1977-89 and under Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin from 1990-94. It's about his experience winning when others said he couldn't, whether at Iowa, Wisconsin or Iowa State. If he can win there, he can win in Denton, though it would be nice if he would do so sooner rather than later.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: North Texas has acclimated itself to McCarney and offensive coordinator Mike Canales' run game, taking a very nice step forward on the ground a season ago after some middling results in 2011. Here's a good sign: UNT had three 500-yard rushers last fall, a program-first since 1952. Who needs a clear lead back? The Mean Green prefer to spread it around, in fact, and although one cog in last season's three-man rotation departs, UNT is confident a Big Ten transfer can pick up the slack.

The one loss is Jeremy Brown, last year's third-leading rusher. Leading contributors Brandin Byrd (875 yards) and Antoinne Jimmerson (544 yards) are a very nice pair: Byrd is a bruiser, Jimmerson the burner, and one plays very well off the other. UNT likes Reggie Pegram, a transfer from Purdue with a skill set to be the total package. There are other options, like redshirt freshman Mark Lewis, but look for this trio to lead the way. What a difference two years makes: UNT once loaded up with Lance Dunbar, but now the offense has embraced a by-committee approach.

An offensive line that protected superbly and did a solid – but still not terrific – job in the running game returns all but one starter, center Aaron Fortenberry, so hope is high that the group continues to move forward in 2013. One thing that concerns me: UNT remained very healthy up front last fall, so even if the staff is happy with the starting five there is not much proven depth on the second level. The lone senior starter up front is right tackle LaChris Anyiam, who won't have to worry about Coleman Feeley breathing down his back; the rest are juniors, from left tackle Antonio Johnson to left guard Mason Y'Barbo to right guard Cyril Lemon. Look for some serious competition in the middle between JUCO transfer Shawn McKinney – 6-4 and 365 pounds – and redshirt freshmen Kaydon Kirby and Boone Feldt, but the rest of the starting lineup is secure. Again, depth is the biggest concern. But last season's results were extremely promising.

This offense won't go anywhere – and, by extension, UNT won't go anywhere – until it can find greater explosiveness in the passing game. Some of this fault lies on the back of quarterback play; more blame can be shared with an underwhelming and pedestrian receiver corps, one that put together only three receptions of 50 or more yards in 2012. Is senior Brelan Chancellor (25 receptions for 450 yards) the missing link? Well, Chancellor – who missed three games last fall – is the only receiver with the ability to give defenses weak knees, so he'll be front and center for UNT's passing game. Outside of Chancellor, the Mean Green is banking on sophomore Carlos Harris (19 for 253), who played well in Chancellor's stead down the stretch; former walk-on Darnell Smith (28 for 379), the most pleasant surprise among last season's offensive skill players; and Texas transfer Darius Terrell, who will move from tight end to receiver. Although UNT has nice depth at tight end, led by Drew Miller (18 for 136), the focus is on the receiver corps.

— Defense: Let's begin with the good news, which is UNT's very commendable level of returning talent and experience along the back seven. The star is senior middle linebacker Zach Orr (108 tackles, 2 interceptions), a two-time All-Sun Belt pick who will very rapidly prove himself as one of the best at his position in Conference USA – if not the best, period, and one could make a very good case for Orr as the league's defensive player of the year should UNT exceed expectations and make a run toward bowl eligibility. Another commendation: Orr is very easily one of the best linebackers in program history. He's a good one.

And he's one of two returning starters at linebacker, joined by junior Derek Akunne (90 tackles, 7.5 for loss) at one of the two outside spots. UNT has to feel very secure about what this duo brings to the table, and also about what sort of production junior Robert Lewis and sophomores LaJaylin Smith and Jamal Marshall could provide if given the opportunity. The lone new face in the starting lineup is senior Will Wright, who has worked very hard to finally get his shot at a major role.

The pass defense played fairly well last season despite the number of new faces on the two-deep – tons of freshmen, for one. Nevertheless, the staff will be the first to admit that the secondary's bouts with unpredictably hampered its overall effectiveness. What can change? Just experience, and added experience will greatly improve UNT's overall bottom line heading into 2013 and beyond. One face to know is sophomore Zac Whitfield (60 tackles, 3 interceptions), a converted running back who earned all-conference honors during his first season at the new position – a rare position move that paid off right from the start. Whitfield has serious potential.

He's joined in the secondary by three defensive backs with starting experience. UNT will team Whitfield with senior Hilbert Jackson (84 tackles), who fended off any competition for the starting job during spring drills. Safety will be held down by former Oklahoma transfer Marcus Trice (63 tackles, 6.5 for loss), a senior, and junior Laramie Lee (72 tackles). While Trice and Lee are effective against the run, both are liabilities at times in coverage – with Trice one offender who must turn in a complete game to prevent explosive plays in the passing game. One new addition to watch is Louisville transfer Zed Evans, a challenger to Lee at strong safety.

UNT has some major problems along the defensive line. One immediate issue is the availability of senior Richard Abbe, who was suspended indefinitely this month for a violation of team rules. Abbe's value is immense: UNT has only two 300-pounders, Abbe being one, and the potential is there for this run defense to collapse without a big body in the middle. In the meantime, UNT needs redshirt freshman Sir Calvin Wallace to hold down the fort – and his conditioning has been and continues to be a concern. Without Abbe, the Mean Green will be quick inside with Ryan Boutwell, Alexander Lincoln and Austin Orr but not nearly strong enough to win the battle at the point of attack. That is an absolutely enormous concern.

As is the pass rush. UNT suffered a tough blow when JUCO transfer Quenton Brown suffered an ACL injury, likely limiting his availability for 2013 (if not ending his season altogether) and robbing this defense of a projected starter at end. That loss, along with the graduation of K.C. Obi, last year's leader in sacks, leaves UNT with only two viable, proven options at end: Brandon McCoy (22 tackles, 3.5 for loss) and Aaron Bellazin (32 tackles, 5.0 sacks). Depth woes led UNT to transition backup linebacker Chad Polk down to the position.

— Special teams: No team in college has been as impotent on punt returns as UNT, going back not just to 2012 but more than a half-decade. This is now a trend, in other words. At least Chancellor gives UNT some juice on kickoffs, though he hasn't scored since returning two kicks for six as a freshman in 2010. There's a big hole at punter, where two-time All-Sun Belt pick Will Atterberry must be replaced, and UNT can either hand double-duties to kicker Zach Olen or hand the job over to redshirt freshman Blake Macek.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Quarterback: Something is missing from UNT's passing game, paced the past two seasons by senior quarterback Derek Thompson (2,629 yards and 14 touchdowns, .575 completion percentage), and it's hard to imagine this offense taking the step it needs without a pretty meaningful level of improvement – either from the scheme, the receivers or the quarterback himself, and Thompson is feeling this heat as he heads into what could be his third season as UNT's starter. How rare would Thompson's three-year turn be for this program? UNT started a different quarterback in the opener from every season between 2002-11 before Thompson reclaimed the job last season.

It's not a matter of protection: UNT protected the quarterback better than any team in college football in 2012, giving up only 5.0 sacks during the 12-game season. Don't blame happy feet, in other words. The big problem with Thompson is inconsistency; he hasn't turned the corner, basically, and even if UNT sticks with its starter the staff must be ready to make a quick change if Thompson's mediocrity continues.

Unlike during last season, UNT will have other options. One is sophomore Andrew McNulty, who started a game in 2011 but missed last season due to injury. The second is former Kansas transfer Brock Berglund, who left KU amid some kerfuffle with coach Charlie Weis. The Jayhawks' loss is UNT's gain: Berglund might be third on the depth chart heading into August, but that's more a result of his inexperience in the system. His physical gifts make Berglund a very strong candidate to leapfrog up the two-deep over the next six months.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Idaho: UNT must beat a down Idaho team to open the year on the right foot, especially with that game followed by meetings with Ohio, Ball State and Georgia. The Mean Green's Conference USA debut comes at Tulane, against a definitely improved Green Wave team, before a return home against former Sun Belt rival Middle Tennessee State. While the new league schedule isn't easy, UNT does have the good fortune of meeting UTEP and UTSA at home over back-to-back weeks in November.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: It would be really, really great for this program – and this staff, now in its third season – to open life in Conference USA on the right note. What does that mean? North Texas doesn't necessarily need to win eight games, pushing Tulsa in the West Division, but it must prove itself against a slightly more difficult level of competition while avoiding the sort of pratfalls that have led to back-to-back losing seasons since McCarney's arrival in 2011.

There are two reasons, in my mind, why UNT won't make noise in 2013. One is this offense, and the vanilla passing game in particular. What good is an offensive line that protects as well as anyone if the quarterback – whether it's Thompson, Berglund or McNulty – can't find open receivers downfield? What good is a quarterback who can deliver downfield if the Mean Green have no pass-catchers able to break through against one-on-one coverage? The running game can't do it alone, as promising as it is. The second concern is the defensive line, which lacks size inside and speed off the edge.

What's the best-case scenario? Either Thompson turns the corner of Berglund learns the offense; moving the latter into the lineup gives UNT a very promising sophomore to put at the center of its offense the next three seasons. The defensive line offsets a lack of size and speed with technique and help from the secondary, which does a nice job bottling up the pass, allowing UNT to lend additional assets to stop the run. This is possible, just not likely.

What seems likely is that UNT starts slow, losing three games in non-conference play and suffering a few road losses to open Conference USA action before finding some success in November. What's the final number? As always, somewhere between three and five wins. There's not enough here to safely predict any sort of breakthrough.

— Dream season: North Texas is the story of the new-look Conference USA, winning six games in league play and finishing second to Tulsa in the West.

— Nightmare season: The Mean Green's opening-season loss to Idaho begins a spiral, sending the program to its first 10-loss season since 2009.

— All-name team nominee: RB Konockus Sashington.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 112? This team's coach served as an assistant on teams that reached a BCS bowl and the Super Bowl.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: Conference USA, West

— Location: Denton, Tex.

— Nickname: Mean Green

— Returning starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 102

— 2012 record: 4-8 (3-5)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 97

— 2013 schedule:

Aug. 31 Idaho

Sept. 7 at Ohio

Sept. 14 Ball State

Sept. 21 at Georgia

Oct. 5 at Tulane

Oct. 12 Middle Tennessee State

Oct. 19 at Louisiana Tech

Oct. 26 at Southern Mississippi

Oct. 31 Rice

Nov. 9 UTEP

Nov. 23 UTSA

Nov. 30 at Tulsa

Paul Myerberg is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg. Access the full countdown here.