Second, this is one of the three best results for Labor in the 120 years that it has been contesting elections in Victoria. It stands with 1952, when John Cain senior was given a historic majority to clean up a crooked electoral system, and 2002, when voters reacted against the Kennett legacy by

endosring Steve Bracks’ polite style and middle-of-the-road policies. Premier Daniel Andrews at times seemed to be channelling Bracks in this campaign, as in his understated but respectful response to the Bourke Street tragedy. Quietly slipping in to Pellegrini’s to pay your respects to the memory of Sisto Malaspina, with no reporters or cameras, was a very Bracks thing to do. It’s a style Melbourne likes. Premier Daniel Andrews Credit:AAP It also likes Labor’s focus on delivering infrastructure and services, and will put up with the extra taxes, debt and public servants that go with it. As a rule, it doesn’t believe that you can reduce crime rates by changing politicians. The Liberals have trouble understanding all this, partly because the right has narrowed the once broad church of the party to keep out moderates. The scares on Saturday night when Labor edged ahead even in seats as safe for the Liberals as Brighton and Hawthorn showed how the mix of angry ideology and populism in this campaign alienated its traditional educated base, the “middle-class” Robert Menzies championed, and the mainstream of urban voters.

At the end of Saturday night’s counting, it looked like Labor had won 51 of the 88 seats in the assembly, the Coalition just 24, with one Green and one independent. An unusually high 11 seats remained in doubt, partly because in some seats the high vote for independents makes it unclear who will be the final two candidates. Taking a stab at likely outcomes, my rough estimate is that Labor will end up with about 55 seats to the Coalition’s 29, with two Greens and two independents. The Coalition will win half the seats outside Melbourne (and most seats outside Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo). But it will have just 17 of the 64 seats in greater Melbourne - roughly one in four.

The size of the swing took us all by surprise. Labor will end up with about 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, matching Jeff Kennett’s landslide in 1992. We thought Labor might win Burwood, but not Box Hill, Ringwood and quite likely Nepean. In the final week, Liberal sources told The Australian newspaper that the party had a strong chance of winning nine city seats from Labor: Bentleigh, Carrum, Mordialloc, Frankston, Cranbourne, the two Narre Warren seats, Eltham, and the Premier’s own seat of Mulgrave. These guys were out of touch with reality. The average swing against them in those seats was 8 per cent. For the second election in a row, the best news for the Coalition came from women in the bush.

Cindy McLeish withstood the Labor tide to retain Eildon. Louise Staley looks likely to hang on to Ripon, despite heavy Labor attacks. And young National MPs Steph Ryan and Emma Kealy won swings their way in Euroa and Lowan. If Matthew Guy stands down as leader to take responsibility for the debacle, it would be a real and positive step forward if the Liberals chose a woman to lead them. It’s time its blokey culture was thrown overboard. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video For Labor, the risk is that this landslide intensifies the self-confident arrogance exemplified by Andrews’ handling of the "red shirts" debacle, and his indulgence of the United Firefighters’ Union. Those close to him need to quickly kill any fresh outbreak. Treasurer Tim Pallas has shed 30 kilograms under his Chinese herbal diet. Hopefully he will now put the state budget on the same diet, as it too has put on a lot of fat since 2014. The budget is vulnerable to falling property sales and prices: it is optimistic to assume, as it does, that this downturn is just a brief pause before the boom resumes.