One of my favourite football trophies is called Barclays Manager of the Month. It is awarded almost entirely for randomness. When a cluster of random victories for your team happens to coincide with a calendar month, you win the award. The next month you get something called reversion to the mean, losing random games, and you get fired.

Tories are deeply split but most of the party wants May’s pragmatic approach JACK TAYLOR/GETTY IMAGES

The human desire to create a comprehensible narrative out of haphazard events is very strong.

Do you remember when Jeremy Corbyn was a dunderhead? It was just before he was a genius, which came just before people wondering if he should be doing better.

Jeremy Corbyn’s period as a dunderhead started while David Cameron was a genius, which came just before he was a dunderhead too and