Ruling combine faced its strongest challenge in south India

Despite a head-start over other parties in having the most popular leader and in shifting the narrative during the election away from the “economy” question, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance did not have a uniform advantage over the Opposition over all regions, the Lokniti post-poll survey finds. In the Hindi heartland and in the west, the respondents in the survey wanted to give a second chance to the NDA with vote shares and margins similar to what the BJP had garnered in the 2014 election. Yet in Uttar Pradesh, the poll revealed that the vote share difference between the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party-Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal coalition was quite close. In south India, this enthusiasm was not shared. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, there was a distinct anti-incumbency against the BJP and its allies. In the east, the BJP has grown to emerge as a central player, and is set to enhance its vote share in West Bengal significantly. Such regional and State-wise variations notwithstanding, overall numbers suggest a greater probability of the BJP returning to power than not doing so in 2019.