Time for my 6th edition of my Big 12 Power Rankings this season at The Big 12 BasketBlog. We are only eight days away from the start of Big 12 play. Things are about to pick up significantly; get excited everyone.

I considered a major shuffle near the bottom of this week’s Power Rankings with teams currently ranked 7-10, but I decided to wait one more week. Those four teams at the bottom are incredibly close to me right now. I’d actually break up the Big 12 into these three tiers currently:

• Tier 1

1. West Virginia

2. Kansas

• Tier 2

3. TCU

4. Oklahoma

5. Texas Tech

6. Baylor

• Tier 3

7. Texas

8. Kansas State

9. Iowa State

10. Oklahoma State

If you wanted to shuffle the teams around in any of those tiers, I wouldn’t argue with you. If you want to remove Tier 2 and just put the top six teams in one tier, I really wouldn’t argue with you. I think that would be fair. But I do think there is a clear delineation between those first six teams and the bottom four teams right now. That could change, but that’s how I see the league right now.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new.

“Two of my favorite basketball writers on the Internet are Zach Lowe and Luke Winn. I guess I should say “were” for one of those guys as Luke Winn was hired by the Toronto Raptors (!) in the summer of 2017 as Director of Prospect Strategy. Lowe covers the NBA and Winn did cover college basketball for Sports Illustrated. The best part about reading these guys is that you learn something new about basketball, whether it’s a team or a player, every time that you read their stuff. They inform you in intelligent ways without relying on the standard hot take-isms or journalistic tropes. They notice things about teams or players while watching games and then show it to their readers, whether through game clips or data-based analysis, and they do it in a way that is digestible and thought-provoking. I do not have the talent that these two guys have, but my goal is to provide you with a similar look at the Big 12 every week with my weekly Big 12 Power Rankings post. I will rank the teams 1 through 10, but that’s not really what matters here (but feel free to let me know if your team should obviously be ranked 5th instead of 6th). What I want to provide are statistics, analysis, game clips, or just random observations that I’ve made that help you to learn more about a team or a player on that team. And sometimes, I just might include a funny anecdote or item about a team if there’s a slow week. Some weeks, I’ll write more about some teams than other teams. The bigger the game or a week a school has, the more likely I am to go a little deeper on them. Everyone will get their fair share in the end. Just like Lowe and Winn, I want to inform you and give you thought-provoking and compelling analysis on the Big 12 that you’re not getting anywhere else on the Internet. Alright, let’s jump in.”

Alright, let’s dive in. As per usual, here’s a breakdown on the key Kenpom statistics and metrics that will be shown for each team every week. These will always be shown right below the header for each team. Ken Pomeroy’s blog post explaining these metrics can be read here.

• Ranking and AdjEM: The ranking signifies where a team ranks nationally in Kenpom’s AdjEM. AdjEM is Adjusted Efficiency Margin; it is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. The margin is “adjusted” to account for strength of competition, expected outcome, and recency. The idea of “adjusted” is explained in much clearer detail by Pomeroy here.

• Adj. Offense: Also known as Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Adj. Offense is shown on a per 100 possessions basis, so a rating of 112.3 would represent 112.3 points scored per 100 possessions. This will include the team’s adjusted efficiency number, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

• Adj. Defense: Also known as Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This works the same as Adj. Offense, but is for a team’s defensive efficiency. Adj. Defense is shown on a per 100 possessions basis, so a rating of 98.7 would represent 98.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. This will include the team’s adjusted efficiency number, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

• Adj. Tempo: This shows the number of possessions per 40 minutes. A data point of 71.8 would mean this team plays 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes. This will always include the team’s adjusted tempo, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

All statistics used in this post are from Kenpom, Synergy Sports, College Basketball Reference, Hoop-Math, or T-Rank. All clips are pulled from WatchESPN or uploaded games on YouTube. So if I haven’t pulled many clips on your team, it’s because their games can’t be found on those platforms, not because I don’t want to. Once conference play rolls around and basically every Big 12 game is on ESPN, the clip count between teams should even out.

1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Last Week: 1st)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 10-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 9th, +22.67

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 114.6, 25th, 4th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 91.9, 9th, 3rd

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 74.5, 27th, 2nd



West Virginia’s statistical profile on offense is interesting this year for both its similarity and differences to years past. West Virginia instituted their Press Virginia ideology in the 2015 season. Since then, their offensive profile has been mostly consistent: top 40ish offense, great offensive rebounding, high free throw rate. That is the formula. You can see the consistency of their performance in the below chart.

In 2015, the first year of Press Virginia, the Mountaineers’ performance on offense was a touch less efficient, but their performance has been pretty much the same. This year, West Virginia is currently 25th in Kenpom in Adjusted Offense, with an adjusted efficiency of 114.6 points per 100 possessions. However, the way they’ve achieved this efficiency has been different than the previous three seasons.

This year, West Virginia is relying less on offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line than past years. They still do these two things significantly better than most college basketball teams, but not to the level of previous Huggins teams. Both their Off. Reb. Rate and FT Rate are currently lower than any other time in the Press Virginia era — this is especially true for FT Rate, which is quite low compared to the 2015-2017 seasons.

So if West Virginia is rebounding their own misses less and is getting to the free throw line, how are they maintaining their top-30ish offensive efficiency? Well, this team is a much better shooting team than previous years in Morgantown. Check out this chart.

Their 2-point FG% and FT% are both higher than any other Press Virginia season. Their 3-point FG% is the 2nd highest of the Press Virginia era, but they are shooting far more threes this season than past years, as nearly 43% of their FG attempts have come from behind the 3-point line. Because of that ratio, the percentage of their points coming from 3-pointers is higher this year — 33.5% — than any of the past three years — 26.8% in 2015, 22.8% in 2016, and 27.4% in 2017.

This West Virginia team’s offensive efficiency may look the same as previous years, but the statistical profile has changed a bit. They’re still pressing and playing with that same ferocity, but they’ve got a bit more shot-making ability this season and it shows. Esa Ahmad will return to the lineup soon; I’m curious to see if his inclusion changes their offensive identity at all.

Coming Up: 12/23 vs. Fordham, 12/29 at Oklahoma State, 1/1 at Kansas State

2. Kansas Jayhawks (Last Week: 2nd)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 9-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 7th, +24.10

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 116.1, 13th, 2nd

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 92.0, 10th, 4th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 71.5, 91st, 4th



In Kansas’ victory over Nebraska this past weekend, you saw a big reason why Kansas has won 13 straight Big 12 regular season titles. No team is better prepared and coached in the final minutes of close games, and you could see that in Lincoln on Saturday. Bill Self worked in his magic in those final possessions. Let’s walk through three possessions chronologically.

On this first possession with just under a minute left and the game tied, Nebraska runs a very simple set. They enter the ball into the wing and run a fake ballscreen action. It’s not necessarily a slip screen as the Nebraska player never truly slows down to set a screen, but him running at Lagerald Vick — who is guarding the ball — does enough to make Vick freeze for a moment. The ball handler is then able to get by Vick, get into the paint, and convert a go-ahead layup. Remember this set. It’ll be back.

In this possession immediately following that Nebraska made basket, Kansas has their chance to answer. Kansas called a timeout before this possession so you knew Self had something good dialed up. This isn’t an overly complicated set, but it does a great job of putting KU players in spots where they are likely to succeed. Devonte’ Graham initiates the action by entering to Svi Mykhailiuk on the wing; Svi immediately hands it back to Graham and heads towards the baseline. Udoka Azubuike sets a ballscreen for Graham, which puts Graham in a situation where he’s attacking downhill into the paint towards a big man. At this point, Nebraska has no chance. Svi has now moved to the corner. If his man doesn’t help, Graham has a layup against a big man who is off balance and in a poor position. If he does help, Svi has a good look from the corner. Svi’s defender chose the second option. Bad choice. If either Graham or Svi shoot and miss, you’ve got Azubuike headed toward the rim at full speed to attack the offensive glass.

Now we get to my favorite Bill Self “coaching genius” moment in these final minutes. Kansas now has the lead. Nebraska doesn’t call timeout; they don’t want to give Kansas a chance to set their defense. It doesn’t matter. Kansas is so well-coached that they already know what’s coming. Nebraska runs the same set that they ran a possession earlier. This time, after entering the ball to the left wing, Kansas is prepared and switches the fake screen action. Mykhailiuk switches onto the ball, defends well against the drive, and forces a kickout for a tough 3. It’s perfect defense in that situation, and it was all due to good preparation and coaching by Self and good execution by KU players. Perfect harmony in that moment.

That win over Nebraska won’t look great or overly important at the end of the season. But it was extra important at the time for Kansas. Losing three straight in December would have been a real buzzkill for them headed into conference play.

Coming Up: 12/21 vs. Stanford in Sacramento, 12/29 at Texas, 1/2 vs. Texas Tech

3. TCU Horned Frogs (Last Week: 3rd)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 11-0, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 19th, +19.83

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 117.6, 11th, 1st

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 97.7, 49th, 8th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 71.8, 79th, 3rd



Last week, I wrote about the TCU’s top ranked Big 12 offense and the success of their spread pick and roll offense. This week, I want to focus on the TCU player who’s impressed me most this season: Kenrich Williams.

I was high on Kenrich Williams before the season. I had him on my 1st Team All-Big 12 Preseason Team in my preseason award preview. He was the player I was most looking forward to watching on TCU in my TCU season preview. I’ve been on the Kenrich Bandwagon for a while now. Everyone else was aboard the Vlad Train, but give me Kenrich.

This season, he’s taken his play on offense to another level. Last year, Williams averaged 11.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists on 50% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from 3-point range. His eFG% was 56.5% and his Offensive Rating was 122.6. This season, Williams leads TCU in scoring at 14.5 PPG. He’s also averaging 9.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He’s increased his shooting percentages to 53% from the field and 50% from 3-point range. His eFG% has jumped up to 61% as a result and his Offensive Rating is 123.3.

If you want a visual representation of how versatile he is on offense and how important he is to TCU’s offensive success, check out this chart that I made at barttorvik.com. Torvik’s site has a great tool where you can make your own player scatter plot charts, based on whatever two metrics you want. Here’s a link. For this chart, I created a chart that shows assist rate on the x-axis and offensive rebounding rate on the y-axis. I set up a parameter to only show Big 12 players listed at 6’6″ or taller. I essentially wanted to examine forwards and frontcourt players. Williams’ versatility stands out. No one else has both the rebounding ability and playmaking ability that he does. He really is a do-everything player for this team. (Here’s a web link to the chart shown below.)

He is TCU’s best player, and I’m not sure it’s really close. The guy is an NBA player; I’m 100% convinced he will see time in the league as a 3-and-D guy. Enjoy watching him this season.

Coming Up: 12/22 vs. William & Mary, 12/30 vs. Oklahoma, 12/2 at Baylor

4. Oklahoma Sooners (Last Week: 5th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 9-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 20th, +19.68

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 115.0, 20th, 3rd

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 95.4, 29th, 6th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 78.1, 5th, 1st



Is Oklahoma’s win over Wichita State the best win by a Big 12 team yet this season? I think so, right? Winning in Wichita, even if the game was played in an off-campus arena in Wichita, is an incredibly difficult task. Oklahoma was tremendous on offense in that game, scoring 54 points in the first half and finishing with a 1.12 PPP for the game. A lot of that production was due to their terrific pick and roll offense and the play of Trae Young in the pick and roll. He is already a pick and roll wizard who knows all the tricks. Let’s break down some of that wizardry here.

I’m going to run through a bunch of different clips here just to show the variety of ways Oklahoma scored in ball screen actions in this game. Young makes all the right reads at pretty much all times. In this first clip, Young comes off the ball screen, gives a slight hesitation move, and gets into the paint for a floater. Young’s floater game isn’t talked about as much as his shooting and passing, but it should be. He’s got a deft touch on these. He’s currently shooting 60% (12/20) on runners/floaters, per Synergy Sports.

In this second clip, you see the pick and roll option that I think is most difficult for Oklahoma opponents to defend. The 5-man, Khadeem Lattin, sets a ball screen on Young’s man and then rolls to the paint. Brady Manek starts in the paint but then replaces Lattin at the top, spotting up for a 3. So now the defense has to figure out how to deal with defending Trae Young in a ball screen action, defending Lattin on the roll, AND not losing Manek has he spots up at the top of the key. That’s really difficult. It’s especially difficult for college players, who often tend to struggle with the concepts of pick and roll defense. Manek gets a wide open look on this play, and he’s going to convert these. He’s currently shooting 39% on spot-up 3-pointers this season, per Synergy Sports.

Here are two plays from the Wichita State game that opponents absolutely must not allow. On these plays, Wichita State has decided to have the man guarding the screener show on Trae Young until his man can recover. The issue? The big man showing gets anxious. He is not comfortable that far out on the perimeter. He knows he needs to get back to his man, who is rolling to the basket, before Young delivers a great pass to find him. That anxiety overcomes Wichita’s big men in both of these possessions, they leave Trae Young early, and he hits a 3. Defenders cannot do this. Your main coverage in these ball screens has to be not allowing Young to get an open look from 3. Young is currently shooting 34% in off the dribble, pick and roll 3-pointers, per Synergy Sports. I guarantee that percentage will rise.

Alright, having the defender of the screener show on Young didn’t work; he just pulled up from 3. Having him stay back in the paint as a deterrent to the rim didn’t work; he just shot a floater over him. Let’s double him. That’s what Wichita did on this ball screen, and guess what? It didn’t work. Young uses his quickness and ball-handling ability to dribble right around the double-team and find a shooter in the corner for an open 3.

Okay, nothing is working. Let’s try a high hedge. Let’s make Young divert his path out higher a bit until his man can recover — *cue Trae Young laughing*. Young pulls out another trick out of his bag and splits the defenders off the screen and gets into the paint easily. Here’s where Young showcases another one of his skills that isn’t talked about frequently. He really does a good job finishing at the rim, especially considering his smaller 6’1″ stature. Young is currently shooting 59% in the restricted area; the national average is 52.6% (both figures per Synergy Sports).

Finally, Trae Young can just really mess with you and just completely reject the screen and get an easy shot using his quickness alone.

At this point, if you’re the opposing coach, I’m not sure what you do. In the table below, you can see that Oklahoma is currently in the 98% percentile nationally in play types that end with a ball handler in a pick and roll, averaging 1 PPP per Synergy Sports. They’re in the 70th percentile if the possession ends with the roll man. I actually wonder if some coaches may try to play some zone against Oklahoma, just to limit these ball screen possessions. It will take some creative coaching, because at this point, I don’t see any reason why Lon Kruger shouldn’t dial up ball screen after ball screen until opponents can show any sign of containing it.

One other note from the Oklahoma/Wichita State game. There’s nothing better to watch right now in the Big 12 than Trae Young. But a close second is watching Jamuni McNeace block shots. I think he might be the most secretly fun player in the Big 12. Check out these four blocks from the Wichita State game.

Holy hell. The guy literally caught three shots. He is not a shot-blocker, he is a shot-catcher. It feels like he’s in the air forever. He doesn’t hang in the air; he levitates. The first and last blocked shot in that video are preposterous. His timing is perfect, and he makes it look so easy. More of the Jamuni McNeace shot-catching please and thanks.

Coming Up: 12/22 vs. Northwestern, 12/30 at TCU, 12/3 vs. Oklahoma State

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Last Week: 4th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 10-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 13th, +21.94

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 113.2, 36th, 6th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 91.3, 8th, 2nd

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 69.9, 172nd, 7th



The focus on Trae Young’s play has been 100% deserved. Young deserves to be the main focus of any reporting on Big 12 basketball currently. He is a supernova flying through this college basketball season. But he’s not the only Big 12 PG showing out right now as Keenan Evans is having a hell of a season.

Evans is currently averaging 17.0 points and 3.6 assists with shooting splits of .792/.603/.347 (FTs, 2-pointers, 3-pointers). His usage rate is 3rd highest among Big 12 players but his Offensive Rating is still 122.5. He’s scored in double figures in every game other than one. He’s been the game MVP per Kenpom’s “MVP” metric in four Texas Tech games already. Last year, he only had six MVP designations for the whole season.

Texas Tech has played four high-major opponents in their non-conference: Boston College, Northwestern, Seton Hall, and Nevada. In those four games, Evans averaged 26.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3 assists. He shot 36-65 from the field (55%) and 28-35 from the FT line (80%). Basically, he showed up when he had to in Texas Tech’s most important games thus far. That’s what you want out of your best player.

To show how impressive Evans’ season has been thus far, I wanted to use the same tool at barttorvik.com that I used in my Kenrich Williams/TCU section. For this exercise, I created a chart that shows usage rate on the x-axis and offensive rating on the y-axis. I set up parameters to only show Big 12 players listed at 6’5″ or under. Basically, I wanted to chart the offensive efficiency and overall presence of Big 12 guards. Who are the most efficient guards and who has the most command on their team? Here’s a link to the chart I’m showing below.

Trae Young is the outlier of all outliers on the far right of this chart. But look who’s trailing him. There’s Keenan Evans, who is 2nd in Big 12 guards in usage rate and has a very good offensive rating to back it up. Evans is having a great season; he should be a front-runner for First Team All-Big 12 right now.

Coming Up: 12/22 vs. Abilene Christian, 12/29 vs. Baylor, 12/2 at Kansas

6. Baylor Bears (Last Week: 6th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 10-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 23rd, +18.47

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 113.8, 31st, 5th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 95.3, 26th, 5th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 65.8, 326th, 10th

Before the season started, I wrote about Jake Lindsey in my Baylor season preview. In my section on Lindsey, I wrote this:

Last season, Lindsey averaged 4.7 points, 3.1 assists, and 2.2 rebounds. Sounds pretty mediocre, right? A lot of this is due to Lindsey’s incredibly low usage rate, especially considering the amount of minutes he plays. He only used 13.4% of possessions last season, fewest on the team, despite playing the 5th most minutes. I think that will change this season. With the losses of Motley, Freeman, and Wainright, Lindsey is going to have to start being a bit more aggressive for Baylor to maintain their success. If you extrapolate his numbers from last season out to 100 possessions, his averages were 12.6 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.0 rebounds with an ORtg of 117.1. Now obviously, he’s not going to put up numbers like that; that would be all-league level, but he should do better than 4.7/3.1/2.2.

This season, Jake Lindsey is using only 12.6% of possessions and is averaging 5.4 points, 3.8 assists, and 1.8 rebounds. It’s official. I was about as wrong as you could possibly be as Lindsey’s usage rate continues to be shockingly low. The guy simply refuses to shoot, and he’s not playing with the ball in his hands to create for others as much as I thought he would before the season. He’s takes his unselfish nature as a basketball player to another level; it might actually harm the team.

Regarding his usage rate, here’s a chart showing his usage rate for this season, per barttorvik.com. There’s only one game with a usage rate above 20%, and that average and 5-game average could pretty much replace the horizontal gridline for 10%. He’s not leaving that area.

The same was true in 2017. He had a slight uptick once conference play began in January, but the guy simply doesn’t use possessions.

Lindsey is a passenger at basically all moments on the court, never a driver. I’m not sure that’s a good thing for Baylor. Lindsey has guard skills. He’s a good passer and an above average ball-handler. He typically makes good decisions. His Offensive Rating is currently 130.2. His Assist Rate is 25.2%, which is currently 11th in the Big 12 and the best mark among Baylor players. It would benefit Baylor if he would take a little pressure off of Manu Lecomte to initiate offense and be a play-maker. I’ll be curious to see if Lindsey’s usage rate increases a bit more once conference play starts, even more so than it did last season. It can’t get much lower.

Coming Up: 12/29 at Texas Tech, 12/2 vs. TCU

7. Texas Longhorns (Last Week: 7th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 8-3, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 38th, +15.67

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 105.1, 145th, 10th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 89.4, 6th, 1st

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 68.4, 235th, 8th

Texas is a very good defensive team that continues to struggle more and more on offense. This has created a very odd statistical profile. Kenpom currently has Texas as the 6th best defense in the nation, with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 89.4, and the 145th ranked offense, with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 105.1. You don’t often see teams with that kind of variance between offensive and defensive performance. I was curious how often it’s happened in college basketball recently.

Below is a table showing teams who have finished with a top 10 Kenpom defense and a Kenpom offense outside of the top 100 at the end of the season.

This is an interesting group of teams. There’s not a single one that made the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and in the last two years, this type of profile meant an NIT berth was in your future. In 2014, Ohio State, VCU, and St. Louis all made the NCAA Tournament with this profile, but that’s now five seasons ago. Basketball ideology might have changed too much since then for a team that’s so reliant on its defense to still make the NCAA Tournament.

The most similar teams strictly from comparing efficiency data to 2018 Texas are 2016 San Diego State, 2015 San Diego State, and 2014 St. Louis. Those three teams all had an Adj. Off. Efficiency around 105 and an Adj. Def. Efficiency around 90. Those are Texas’ statistical profile spirit animals to examine further.

I sent out the below tweet out earlier this week. If I’m a Texas fan, I’m officially worried if this team can make the NCAA Tournament. That offense is showing signs of one that isn’t good enough to record enough quality wins to support an NCAA Tournament team resume.

Courtesy of @totally_t_bomb T-Rank site, here is current Big 12 team efficiency. (I drew in the red line.) Once Selection Sunday rolls around, I would not be surprised if the right side of that line is NCAA Tournament teams and the left side is not. pic.twitter.com/bCRyfoBguV — Big 12 BasketBlog (@Big12BasketBlog) December 18, 2017



Coming Up: 12/22 at Alabama in Birmingham, 12/29 vs. Kansas, 12/1 at Iowa State

8. Kansas State Wildcats (Last Week: 8th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 10-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 44th, +14.55

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 112.7, 40th, 7th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 98.2, 59th, 9th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 66.0, 325th, 9th



In my preseason preview for Kansas State, I begged for Dean Wade to shoot the ball more this season than he did last season. This is what I wrote:

Take a look at Wade’s shooting stats and his rank among Big 12 players during the 2017 season. Those are outstanding numbers. Wade is in the top 20% of all 3 categories. Here are the other players who were in the top 20% of these categories last season: Jeffrey Carroll. That’s it. Just Wade and Carroll. And Wade is 6’10”! That’s very impressive. Now, here’s the problem. Jeffrey Carroll was a great shooter for Oklahoma State all season, and as an added bonus, he took 25% of shots when he was on the court. That was 2nd most on Oklahoma State behind Jawun Evans. What was the percentage for Dean Wade? 18%. That is not okay! Of the 8 players who got regular rotation minutes for K-State, Wade was 7th in shot %, only ahead of Carlbe Ervin. When arguably your best shooter is 7th in ending possessions shooting among your rotation players, your offense is not going to reach its full potential. Wade’s Shot Rate actually went down from his freshman season, when he took 21% of shots when on the court.

I haven’t given an update on Wade’s shooting statistics yet this season, so let’s do that this week. Wade is currently 4th on Kansas State in Shot Rate (percentage of shots taken when Wade is on the court). He currently trails Barry Brown (26.7%), Kamau Stokes (23.3%), and Xavier Sneed (22.8%). It’s good to see that Wade is no longer an insane 7th like he was last season, but I have to say, I’m still a bit discouraged that he’s 4th among K-State’s clear-cut four best players.

Brown, Stokes, Sneed, and Wade are by far Kansas State’s best players. They each average between 11.6 points and 14.4 points for the Wildcats. The next closest is Makol Mawien at 7.0 PPG and then Amaad Wainright at 4.2 PPG. This team is defined by those four guys. I just wish Wade would step forward as the #1 guy among those four guys.

Wade is currenly averaging 13.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. His Offensive Rating is the highest on K-State’s roster at 129.9 — Brown is at 108.0, Stokes is at 121.0, and Sneed is at 116.3. Wade’s ORtg currently ranks 64th in the country which is incredibly impressive. He’s not shooting as well from 3-point range this season compared to last season — 35% this year compared to 40% last year — but he’s making up for it by being incredibly efficient on 2-pointers. Wade is currently shooting 64% on 2-pointers — going 50-78. Last year, he shot 56% on 2-pointers. A percentage point increase of eight in a single season is obviously quite good.

He’s just an incredibly efficient player this season who’s improved at nearly everything. His Assist Rate last season was 13.1%; it’s at 19.2% this season. Last year he turned it over on 12.5% of possessions; this year, it has fallen to 9.2%. He grabbed 12.2% of opponents’ misses last season; this year, he’s grabbing 20.1% of opponents’ misses. His eFG% has risen from 57.8% to 61.4%. I’m really enjoying watching his growth.

The next step I want to see is for him take control of this K-State team on offense. His Offensive Rating is too high to not take more shots. He should be taking the most shots on this team. Whether Wade needs to become more aggressive or whether Bruce Weber needs to find him more looks, it needs to happen. K-State has surprised this season on offense. Their Adj. Offensive Efficiency is currently 40th in Kenpom at 112.6. That’s higher than what I (and I imagine many others) expected it to be. If they lean on Wade a little more, their offense could be even better.

Coming Up: 12/29 at Iowa State, 1/1 vs. West Virginia

9. Iowa State Cyclones (Last Week: 9th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 9-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 72nd, +9.57

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 109.9, 67th, 8th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 100.3, 94th, 10th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 70.4, 146th, 5th

There was concern before this Iowa State season about this team’s shooting. Last season’s team was full of 3-point launchers in Naz Mitrou-Long, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton, and Monte Morris. Donovan Jackson was the only player returning who made more than 10 total 3’s last season. I had concerns myself. I wondered in my Iowa State season preview if this team would have to change the way they play to account for the lack of shooting:

Shooting is the final point I’ll address here. Over the last six seasons, Iowa State has been known for their high-scoring offense, especially their skill from 3-point range. Last season, they were 12th in the country at 40% as a team from 3. Over those last six seasons, they’ve shot over 36% as a team every season. This season, this team is going to be built much differently. They don’t have a lot of shooting. Here is the 3-point % of each player with experience last season (Brase’s percentage from 2015 is shown). Jackson is a great shooter, and Brase is a good one, with the added benefit of doing it as a stretch 4. Other than that, it’s pretty dicey. It’s either low percentages or super small sample sizes (or both in the case of Babb and Beverly). This reinforces how important it is for Hans Brase to be healthy and mostly the same version of himself as the 2015 Brase. As far as the freshmen, Lewis is known as a very good shooter, but it’s unclear how many minutes he will get. Wigginton is known as a bit of streaky shooter. He can hit from deep, but it’s inconsistent, and his biggest strength is dribble penetration and his finishing ability in the paint. So shooting is going to be a major question mark for this team. The good thing is that Iowa State still has Steve Prohm on the sidelines, who is a great offensive coach. He will find a way to get this offense looks in different ways than last year. He has already mentioned they are likely to crash the offensive glass more this season and will play to the strengths of their slashers.

Right from my own keyboard: “This season, this team is going to be built much differently.” Also from my own keyboard: “He will find a way to get this offense looks in different ways than last year.” I said it above when I wrote about Jake Lindsey, I’ll say it now, and I’ll say it many more times in the future. Boy was I wrong. Check out this chart.

The above chart shows Iowa State’s 3-point shooting over the last five seasons — that’s Fred Hoiberg’s final two seasons and the first three seasons in Ames for Steve Prohm. So far, this team looks similar to previous Iowa State teams. They are shooting 3’s often, and they are effective at doing so.

This Iowa State team is shooting 3-pointers 37.9% of the time — the 2nd highest rate in the last five seasons. They’re making 3-pointers at a 36.4% clip — ranking 3rd among Iowa State teams in the last five seasons. The statistical profile is pretty consistent here to previous years.

Unlike previous seasons where there were maybe 5-6 guys who were the primary 3-point makers, this team mostly relies on three guys. Donovan Jackson is currently 35-85 (41%), Lindell Wigginton is currently 23-51 (45%), and Nick Weiler-Babb is currently 14-36 (39%). The next three guys in attempted 3-pointers are Terrence Lewis (6-27, 22%), Jeff Beverly (2-17, 12%), and Hans Brase (5-15, 33%). Nothing great out of those three guys currently. It looks like it’ll be mostly all on Jackson, Wigginton, and Weiler-Babb moving forward.

Coming Up: 12/29 vs. Kansas State, 1/1 vs. Texas

10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Last Week: 10th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 9-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 47th, +13.78

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 109.5, 71st, 9th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 95.8, 33rd, 7th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 70.4, 150th, 6th



Last week, I used this space to talk about Mike Boynton making defense the primary identity for this Oklahoma State team. But I haven’t yet talked much about Boynton’s coaching acumen on offense. The Cowboys are currently 9th in the league in Adjusted Offense; they’re not exactly an offensive powerhouse on that end. But they have made a recent starting lineup change that could improve their efficiency on that end.

Jeffrey Carroll has been moved back into the starting lineup, but a fellow perimeter player was not who he replaced. Carroll replaced Cameron McGriff or Lucas N’Guessan (however you want to look at it) who started alongside Mitchell Solomon in the frontcourt in Oklahoma State’s first nine games. The Cowboys are now starting a smaller-ball lineup of Kendall Smith, Lindy Waters, Tavarius Shine, Jeffrey Carroll, and Mitch Solomon. Shooting is now present nearly everywhere. Spacing now exists. I really like this move by Boynton. You can see what this smaller lineup can provide in this 2nd half set vs. Florida State.

This is the pinwheel offense, which Oklahoma State ran often under Brad Underwood last season and has ran at times this season under Boynton. In this particular possession, it puts Mitchell Solomon in the middle of the pinwheel, with four perimeter players spaced and moving around him. It’s a simple offense, and it creates easy opportunities to enter into ball screen actions and dribble handoffs. On this possession, the floor is spaced well and the possession ends with Solomon finding Tavarius Shine for an open 3. As you watch that clip, you see the value of having four perimeter players who can shoot and make 3’s out there rather than three perimeter guys and another big man.

The lineup change intrigues me. It could potentially change my outlook on this Oklahoma State team. They only scored 0.92 PPP against Florida State but followed it up with 1.14 PPP versus Tulsa. We need to see a few more games of this, but my interest is piqued.

Boynton has also shown the ability to draw up some really nice set plays. Check out these two sideline out-of-bounds (or SLOB) plays from the game against Florida State.

Oklahoma State will run this SLOB action often. Depending on how the opponents defend the action, they will enter the ball one of two ways: 1) they will bring a guard out to halfcourt and enter the ball to him as he heads downhill towards the basket OR 2) they will enter to a big man flashing towards the ball — who will then immediately hand it off to the guard as he cuts hard toward the basket. The design is to really get the defense to shift to account for this guard attacking the defense hard. Once the defense shifts, there are shooters spacing the floor ready to shoot. It’s a really nice set that I’m always looking for during OSU games. It’s simple but effective; that’s often the best play.

Here are two more sets that I really liked from Boynton in the Florida State game. Oklahoma State came out of the under-12 timeout in the first half with this lob play called up. The set uses the structure of the pinwheel offense, with Solomon at the FT line setting screens, and implements a screen the screener action to get a lob look for Solomon at the rim. His defender has no idea this is coming. When Oklahoma State runs this pinwheel offense, Solomon rarely leaves the FT area, but he does here. It’s a really nice design that uses the predictive action of the pinwheel offense to OSU’s advantage.

In this second set, Kendall Smith enters the ball to the left wing and heads to the left corner. The ball is rotated back to the top of the key, and it looks like Smith is about to run off a pair of screens by Lindy Waters and Mitchell Solomon to receive the ball on the right wing. Time for some misdirection. Smith doesn’t receive the screens; he sets them. First he sets a screen on Waters’ man and McGriff skips the ball back to the left to the left corner. It’s entirely possible that the set could end here at times if Waters has a clean look for 3. That’s not the case this time as Smith sets a 2nd screen — a back screen on Solomon’s man. Now on this play, Solomon’s man is terribly out of position, (I honestly have no idea what he’s thinking) so Solomon is wide freaking open. But even if his man was in a normal defensive position, this set would still likely result in an open dunk for Solomon (or an open 3 for Waters).

Right when McGriff catches the ball at the top of the key, check out Boynton on the sideline. He immediately points to the left corner; he knows they’ve got an easy basket if McGriff gets the ball over there. I really loved this one. Great stuff by Boynton.

Oklahoma State is 9-2, they’re in the top-50 of Kenpom, they have a top-40 defense, and they’ve got a quality win over Florida State. They’re improving on offense, and Jeffrey Carroll is finding his stride. I’m not sure if they’ll make the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve got a chance. No one thought they would before the season. Mike Boynton deserves some serious credit.

Coming Up: 12/22 vs. UT-Rio Grande Valley, 12/29 vs. West Virginia, 1/3 at Oklahoma