Burning Bright in Calgary

A young team with a lot of promise coming into the new season, the Flames made some key additions this summer and look like a team primed for a playoff push. The Pacific Division better watch out!

Report Card:

Like a student who knows the material inside and out then bombs the exam, the Flames generated a ton of quality offense last season but couldn’t finish. Top-5 in expected goals for and 27th in actual goals. Lots of changes in Calgary during the off-season as they look to improve on last season’s results.

What went right:

Johnny Hockey was great. Gaudreau trailed only Connor McDavid in controlled entries and in scoring chances generating plays league-wide on his way to a career-high 84 points. His linemate, Sean Monahan also hit a career-high 64 points and tied his career-high in goals with 31. As a team, the Flames were very responsible with the puck, recording the 7th lowest turnover rate. They also had the 7th best penalty kill.

What Went Wrong:

Getting scoring chances wasn’t Calgary’s biggest problem offensively last season, converting them was. The Flames led the league in shots that missed the net and had the 3rd most shots blocked. When looking at our expected goals model, Calgary was expected to score 267 goals, 2nd most in the league. Unfortunately, they also recorded the lowest true shooting percentage in the NHL, which measures goals divided by shot attempts. The Flames couldn’t buy a goal on the powerplay either, finishing 23rd in powerplay goals despite spending the 3rd most time on the man advantage. All in all, they only scored 216 goals, good for 27th and 51 fewer than their expected goals, the biggest gap in the league. Calgary also struggled at home with a record of 17-20-4, worse than their away record of 20-15-6.

Offseason moves

Key Additions: James Neal, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Derek Ryan

Key Departures: Dougie Hamilton, Michael Ferland, Kris Versteeg

Other Key moves: Fired Glen Gulutzan, hired Bill Peters, new contract for Elias Lindholm, re-signed Jon Gillies, PTO for Viktor Svedberg, Logan Shaw, Jeff Glass

The Flames traded Dougie Hamilton, along with Michael Ferland and prospect Adam Fox, in a five-player blockbuster deal. Coming to Calgary, Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. Both played under new head coach Bill Peters, who coached the Hurricanes the last four seasons, so there will be familiarity.

Ferland had 41 points playing almost exclusively on the first line, while Lindholm had 44 while being shuffled around the lineup in Carolina, so he appears to be an upgrade. The Hamilton-Hanifin part of the trade is less favorable. Hamilton scored 17 goals, a career high, to Hanifin’s 10. However, Hanifin is only 21-years old and already has underlying numbers that bump up against Hamilton so even though he isn’t better than Hamilton right now, he could be poised to take a big step in an increased role this season.

James Neal, meanwhile, is a proven finisher, something the Flames needed more of. Five years is a lot of term for a player who will be 31 when the season starts, but there’s no denying that he addresses the need for scoring in a big way, at least in the short term. A 10 time, 20+ goals scorer, he could crack 30 again, especially if he plays with Gaudreau and Monahan. Derek Ryan is a solid depth pickup who should fit easily in the system, having played for new Flames coach Bill Peters both with the Carolina Hurricanes and with the WHL Spokane Chiefs.

Next season preview

What could go right?

Calgary has plenty of skill in both their forward and defense groups. The process was there last season they just need to do a better job finishing. Had they scored on 4.6% of their shot attempts, which is the league average, instead of their league-worst 3.7%, they would have scored roughly 270 goals, an increase of 54 goals. That total would have ranked 3rd in the league, tied with the Penguins and Maple Leafs. With skilled players like Neal and Lindholm joining the likes of Gaudreau, Monahan, and Tkachuk, it would be very surprising if they don’t improve offensively next season.

What could go wrong?

Mike Smith is 36-years old and has often been hit by injuries, which leaves the Flames situation in net a bit uncertain without the presence of a solid backup. As of now, the backup is going to either be Jon Gillies, who has 12 games of NHL experience, or David Rittich, who has 22. Last season, they combined for 11 wins in 25 starts, with neither proving they can be counted on for extended periods should Smith go down or struggle. The Flames could, and probably should target a veteran free agent to add some more insurance behind their starter.

The Point Consensus 2018-19 Prediction: 4th in Pacific Division, 8th in Western Conference.