Every year, around the time of my final big board before the NBA Draft, I look back at my earliest projections to see what I got right and what I got wrong. It’s something of a learning exercise, in terms of things that I can value better as an evaluator and in ways that the league is changing.

This year was no different. And looking back at my projections for the 2017 NBA Draft the day after the 2016 NBA Draft ended provided some illuminating details.

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First, let's take a look at the prospect rankings in my final 2017 NBA Draft Big Board before we get into the analysis.

NBA Draft 2017: Final prospect rankings

1. Markelle Fultz, G, Washington

2. Jayson Tatum, F, Duke

3. Josh Jackson, G/F, Kansas

4. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA

5. Jonathan Isaac, F, Florida State

6. Dennis Smith, G, NC State

7. De’Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky

8. Malik Monk, G, Kentucky

9. Frank Ntilikina, G, Strasbourg

10. Lauri Markkanen, C, Arizona

11. Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga

12. Luke Kennard, G, Duke

13. Donovan Mitchell, G, Louisville

14. John Collins, F/C, Wake Forest

15. Justin Jackson, G/F, North Carolina

16. Derrick White, G, Colorado

17. Jawun Evans, PG, Oklahoma State

18. OG Anunoby, F, Indiana

19. Semi Ojeleye, F, SMU

20. Terrance Ferguson, G/F, Adelaide (Australia)

21. Jarrett Allen, C, Texas

22. Bam Adebayo, F/C, Kentucky

23. Harry Giles, C, Duke

24. Jordan Bell, F, Oregon

25. Ike Anigbogu, C, UCLA

26. Justin Patton, C, Creighton

27. D.J. Wilson, F, Michigan

28. Caleb Swanigan, C, Purdue

29. Tyler Lydon

30. Isaiah Hartenstein, C, Zalgiris (Lithuania)

31. TJ Leaf, PF, UCLA

32. Josh Hart

33. Anzejs Pasecniks

34. Monte Morris

35. Frank Mason

36. Johnathan Motley

37. Mathias Lessort

38. Wesley Iwundu

39. Tyler Dorsey

40. Frank Jackson

41. Thomas Bryant

42. Ivan Rabb

43. Tony Bradley

44. Sindarius Thornwell

45. Dwayne Bacon

46. Kyle Kuzma

47. PJ Dozier

48. Cameron Oliver

49. Alec Peters

50. Dillon Brooks

51. Jonah Bolden

52. Devin Robinson

53. L.J. Peak

54. Edmond Sumner

55.Jeremy Morgan

56. Sterling Brown

57. Jaron Blossomgame

58. Vlatko Cancar

59. Sasha Vezenkov

60. Andrew White

61. Marko Guduric

62. Davon Reed

63. Alberto Abalde

64. Nigel Williams-Goss

65. Alpha Kaba

66. Ognjen Jaramaz

67. VJ Beachem

68. Damyean Dotson

69. Jake Wiley

70. Derrick Walton

71. Isaiah Briscoe

72. Peter Jok

73. Antonio Blakeney

74. Kobi Simmons

75. Kadeem Allen

76. James Blackmon

77. Amile Jefferson

78. Luke Kornet

79. Rolands Smits

80. Deonte Burton

81. Melo Trimble

82. Malcolm Hill

83. Nigel Hayes

84. Eric Mika

85. Jamel Artis

86. Ismael Bako

87. Erik McCree

88. Charles Cooke

89. T.J. Williams

90. Antonius Cleveland

91. Jeremy Senglin

92. Isaac Humphries

93. London Perrantes

94. George De Paula

95. Simon Birgander

96. Bronson Koenig

97. Chris Boucher

98. Ben Moore

99. Marcus Keene

100. Przemek Karnowski

OK, let’s talk about the good. Among the 23 players from my earliest projections who decided to participate in the 2017 NBA Draft, 17 of them are featured in my current big board. That’s a solid hit rate. Also, it would be 18 if Jonathan Jeanne had not been diagnosed with Marfan’s Syndrome, a terrible reality that will crater his stock around the league. We wish him the best as well as a happy, healthy life.

Among the seven players in my earliest projections who did not declare for the 2017 NBA Draft, one was a top-10 pick who decided to return to school (Miles Bridges), two were European players who were potential top-40 picks (Arnoldas Kulboka and Kostja Mushidi). Only Grayson Allen, Marques Bolden (who I was considerably lower on than consensus), Omer Yurtseven and Borisa Simanic tangibly lowered their stock over the course of the year to where they had to decline to enter the draft.

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Finally, all 10 of my top players in the current board were featured within the top 22 of my first board, with seven players in that first top 10. And to bring this thing full circle with the numbers I started with, 17 of my initial top 23 ended up on the final big board.

But while scouting for each NBA Draft has become a year-round, multi-year effort, there are still always misses and developments that you can’t see coming. And there’s no better lesson there than with Harry Giles.

Not only did I likely overrate Giles after multiple knee surgeries in high school by placing him as my No. 1 prospect, but I also simply couldn’t see that there would be another surgery on his horizon before the season. His drop to No. 23 shows the importance of knowing medical information, and never downplaying it throughout the process.

(And realistically, No. 23 is a guess. I couldn’t even come close to telling you with any sort of confidence where Giles will be picked on Thursday night, nor can I come close to telling you what his career will look like. There’s reason to believe the top-10 talent is in there, but there’s also reason to believe he’ll never reach it. I hope for his sake he returns to complete health, but it’s impossible to predict at this stage. He’ll be picked anywhere from No. 10 to No. 40, which is about as wide a range as possible for a prospect.)

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Bam Adebayo also fell out of the top five to No. 22, and Ivan Rabb plummeted from No. 9 to No. 42. Thomas Bryant fell from No. 15 to No. 41. Isaiah Hartenstein from No. 12 to No. 30. Jarrett Allen from No. 11 to No. 21. Tyler Lydon from No. 23 to 29. Another lesson from this year: the league is changing, and the big man is becoming less important within the context of the game. Players have to be able to guard both on the inside and the outside, and the best suited players to do that are the most athletic ones.

Skill, athleticism and feel for the game rule the NBA in this day and age, and we see that with the risers that I missed on earlier this year. While I did write about Donovan Mitchell’s NBA prospects as early as August, I did not include him in my earliest projections. He ends at No. 13. Luke Kennard is maybe the biggest shocker of all. He was something of an afterthought behind Allen, Frank Jackson and others in the Duke rotation coming into the season. Instead, it was Kennard who stepped up, becoming college basketball’s most efficient high-volume, high-major scorer.

Jawun Evans at No. 17 was a guy that many missed on due to his size, including myself, before he led Oklahoma State to the No. 1 offense in college hoops under new coach Brad Underwood. Derrick White came out of nowhere to dominate the Pac-12 after making the Division II leap. Ditto for Semi Ojeleye as far as a transfer is concerned, after the former Duke Blue Devil sat out a year and a half before being named the AAC Player of the Year at SMU. Even among the bigs to make big leaps, Zach Collins and John Collins, both of them possess the size, athleticism and skill to play in today’s NBA more than the big, bruising frame that carries them through the day.

Overall, the lessons to take away from this season and into the next are simply what I numerated above. Never take a medical report for granted, remember that the NBA is loaded with big men and that skill and athleticism on the wing and in the backcourt will always have a place. It may be tough to take those lessons to heart in the initial 2018 NBA Draft board that I’ll post here at Sporting News after the 2017 NBA Draft ends — given that the 2017 high school recruiting class is just loaded with big men — but at least thoughtfully considering them will help me miss the pratfalls that befell my big board over the course of the previous year.