For nearly a year now, “no collusion” has been a kind of mantra for President Donald Trump and his administration. Trump and other White House officials have tried to muddy the waters of the Russia investigation by arguing that it is a partisan witch hunt and that Hillary Clinton was the real colluder—but “no collusion” has always been the get-out-of-jail-free card. It set a high bar for special counsel Robert Mueller to clear: If he couldn’t prove direct coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia, then the president would be vindicated. It was a savvy move—the safe bet was that Mueller would find all kinds of shady dealings in Trumpland, but not collusion.



When former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort and his protégé Rick Gates were indicted on Monday morning, Trump returned to his familiar claim:

Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren't Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus????? — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 30, 2017

....Also, there is NO COLLUSION! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 30, 2017

Then news broke that George Papadopoulos, who served as one of five foreign policy advisers to the Trump campaign, had pled guilty to lying to the FBI about interactions he had with Russians. He had seemingly been a cooperating witness in Mueller’s investigation since being arrested over the summer. As my colleague Jeet Heer pointed out, this was a very big deal indeed. It was proof that Mueller had zeroed in on actual contact—and possible collusion—between the Trump campaign and Russia.



Mueller has not uncovered a “smoking gun,” one that proves Trump knew about the numerous contacts between his campaign and Russia. But it’s clear that the Mueller investigation is not winding down, as Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders has optimistically claimed. Far from it. The special counsel has not only found evidence of possible collusion, but is in the midst of undercutting every major argument Trump and his allies have made in defense of the Trump campaign’s actions for the past year. It all suggests that the president, and many of the people close to him, are in deep trouble.



The most significant development on Monday—the unsealing of the indictment against Papadopoulos—came as a total surprise. While the indictments against Manafort and Gates largely pertained to a series of suspicious financial dealings tied to Russia and Ukraine, the indictment against Papadopoulos spells out a series of interactions with Russian agents, with the encouragement of Trump campaign officials.

