The claim

A brawl reportedly involving up to 200 people in the Melbourne suburb of Collingwood has reignited the debate about crime in Victoria and, in particular, offending by African Australians.

A long running theme in the debate has been the contribution of Melbourne's Sudanese community to Victoria's perceived crime problem, with former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull claiming earlier this year that there was "real concern about Sudanese gangs" in the Victorian capital.

But in an interview with the ABC's News Breakfast program, practising lawyer and social justice advocate Nyadol Nyuon leapt to the defence of the Sudanese community, saying: "The overwhelming majority of crimes in Victoria are committed by Australian and New Zealand-born people ... South Sudanese do commit about 1 per cent of the offences."

Are the majority of crimes in Victoria committed by Australian-born and New Zealand-born people and do people from Sudan account for 1 per cent of crimes committed?

RMIT ABC Fact Check investigates.

The verdict

Ms Nyuon's claim checks out.

According to data compiled by the Victorian research body the Crime Statistics Agency (CSA), the vast majority of crimes in Victoria are committed by Australian and New Zealand-born people.

Between April 2017 and March 2018, they made up a combined 73.5 per cent of the unique offender population (those people alleged to have committed crimes) in Victoria; whereas, those born in Sudan made up 1.1 per cent.

Experts told Fact Check that statistics from the CSA were an accurate representation of Victoria's offender characteristics.

Monash University Associate Professor in Criminology Rebecca Wickes said: "1 per cent of offences are being committed by those who have reported being born in South Sudan. That is accurate."

Melbourne University Professor of Criminology Mark Woods said: "Nyadol Nyuon's claim is correct; the overwhelming majority of crime in Victoria is committed by Australian-born offenders."

This fact reflects population statistics more generally: Australian-born and New Zealand-born people account for 64.8 per cent and 1.6 per cent of Victoria's population, respectively.

In percentage terms, there is a greater disparity between population and crime rates for people born in Sudan and South Sudan, who make up just 0.14 per cent of Victoria's population.

However, experts stressed that discussions surrounding this issue fail to take into account the age profile of the Sudanese population in Victoria, which helps explain their overrepresentation in the crime statistics.

How did the issue arise?

In what appears likely to remain a heavily debated topic in the lead up to Victoria's November election, the Coalition has publicly addressed the issue of Victorian crime and, in particular, so-called "gangs".

The issue came to prominence during the 2016 Melbourne Moomba festival, when groups of youths rioted across the CBD, resulting in the arrest of more than 20 people.

The event prompted speculation about "African gang" activity, with the conversation continuing into 2018 on a variety of fronts.

A Victorian Liberal Party flyer on gang violence ( ABC News )

Most recently, a Liberal Party flyer circulating in support of Keysborough candidate Darrel Taylor stated in part: "Only the Liberals will: STOP GANGS HUNTING IN PACKS".

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull also addressed the issue. Defending remarks made by the Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton earlier this year, Mr Turnbull told 3AW talkback host Neil Mitchell there was "real concern about Sudanese gangs" in Melbourne.

Opposition MPs and community leaders criticised the comments, with Greens MP Adam Bandt accusing Mr Turnbull and Mr Dutton of using "race to win votes and whip up hatred".

What do the figures show?

According to the 2016 census, Victoria has a population of 5,926,620. Of this number, 3,845,493 people were born in Australia; 1,680,271 were born overseas.

Figures on offending are compiled by the CSA, based on information provided by Victoria Police. The police figures, which are extracted from the Law Enforcement Assistance Program (LEAP) database, list country of birth but do not record anything further about the ethnicity or cultural background of alleged offenders.

Some offences, therefore, would likely have been committed by people of African heritage who were born in Australia.

The statistics show that between April 2017 and March 2018, 71.3 per cent of unique offenders in Victoria (58,798) were born in Australia, while 2.2 per cent (1,803) were New Zealand-born.

This compares to 1.1 per cent of unique offenders (879) being Sudanese-born.

According to the crimes data, Australian-born, New Zealand-born and Sudanese-born people are all overrepresented. Migrants from the UK, Ireland, India and Vietnam are underrepresented.

A breakdown of crimes committed in Victoria by selected countries of birth



A breakdown of alleged offender incidents reveals that Australian-born and New Zealand-born people are overrepresented in a number of categories of crime.

Sudanese-born people are overrepresented in all categories, but particularly in the categories of aggravated robberies and burglaries.



Young people and crime

History shows that young people, generally, are more likely to commit crimes than older people.

Victoria's crime statistics would appear to bear this out, with a heavier concentration of offenders in Victoria aged between 16 and 24 than for older age groups.

This is particularly so for people born in Sudan, who are relative newcomers to the state.

The number of alleged offenders in this age bracket is higher than for people born in India, the UK, Ireland and Vietnam (each of which accounts for a similar percentage of total unique offenders).

For example, between the 2017-18 period, there were 169 Indian-born offenders aged 16 to 24, compared to 286 Sudanese-born offenders.

For the UK and Ireland, the number of offenders for the same age group was 151. It was 73 for people born in Vietnam.

However, the total number of offenders born in each of those countries is higher than those born in Sudan, particularly for those people aged 25 and over.

According to experts, the statistics for offending reflect the demographic profile of each immigrant group.

Monash University's Associate Professor Wickes told Fact Check it was not unusual for youths to engage in criminal activity and this was not specific to an individual's nationality or origin.

"We know that the heightened time of offending is between 18 and 25 years," she said.

"There are groups of young people who are engaged in serious offending and it is distressing to people.

"But, on balance, there are many more offences being committed by Australian-born, New Zealand-born, Indian-born persons than there are by Sudanese-born people."

Associate Professor Wickes also emphasised the importance of population rates when making comparisons.

"When you're talking about comparing Sudanese groups with other groups, they're a very young group and they need to be age-standardised in order for you to make these comparisons to begin with ...

"The only thing you can say of the reported offences is: 1 per cent are committed by South Sudanese people and they comprise 0.1 per cent of the population.

"You can't really say one [nationality] is doing more than the other because there are too many variables you have to break down. Any other inferences you make from that will have errors associated with them."

A breakdown of crimes committed in Victoria by age



Professor Wood, of Melbourne University, told Fact Check: "The South Sudanese population in Victoria is very young, with 42 per cent under the age of 25 compared to a third of the Australian general population."

"Most discussions of this issue don't take into account the age demographics of the South Sudanese population in Victoria, which really helps explain their overrepresentation in the crime statistics."

Expanding further, Professor Wood referred to the "age-crime curve".

"Owing to the age-crime curve, populations with a larger percentage of members under the age of 25 are likely to have a higher crime rate than ageing populations.

"This accounts, in part, for why the South Sudanese population in Victoria are overrepresented in crime stats — they're a very young population."

How does Australia's prison population compare?

Fact Check has examined prison population figures published by the ABS in 2017, which detail unique offender statistics.

Again, the majority are Australian-born and New Zealand-born — 33,573 and 1,208 prisoners respectively — accounting for 81.5 per cent and 2.9 per cent of Australia's prison population.

In 2017, there were 208 Sudanese-born prisoners in Australia — 0.5 per cent of the total.

Consultant criminologist and Melbourne University lecturer Dr Karen Gelb referred to statistical comparisons made between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in terms of crime rates and imprisonment, which reflected similar disparities.

She said that given the age profiles of the two groups, numbers needed to be treated with caution.

"This is something that has been acknowledged in other populations; it's been acknowledged in the Aboriginal population that age distribution matters.

"When you look at imprisonment rates for the total Australian population versus imprisonment rates for Aboriginal Australians — the rates are much higher for Aboriginal Australians.

"It's quite a complex issue. Just saying the Sudanese community makes up 0.1 per cent of the Victorian population but accounts for 1.1 per cent of the offending population and, therefore, is 10 times overrepresented — is overly simplistic."

Principal researcher: Natasha Grivas

factcheck@rmit.edu.au



Sources

