MTA Proposes Cutting Bus Service Despite BaltimoreLINK Promises

In the first major adjustments to the new system, an overall cut of more than 2%

When BaltimoreLink launched in June of 2017, Governor Hogan said:

“We stood here 19 months ago and promised that we would fix Baltimore’s broken transit system, and we have done exactly what we said we would do. BaltimoreLink signifies the state’s long-term commitment to the future of this city.”

Now, just six months later, our analysis finds that the Maryland Transit Administration’s (MTA) Winter 2018 Service Change proposal amounts to significant across the board bus service cuts of more than 2%, including cuts to BaltimoreLINK’s high-frequency network, which could be described as the plan’s signature feature.

The changes are scheduled to go into effect on or around February 4, 2018, and MTA will accept public comments on the proposal through December 20, 2017.

Across the Board Cuts

MTA presented the proposed changes to the public at a series of hearings which ran from November 13 to November 20. The proposed changes include 3 route eliminations, and service modifications to 20 bus routes. MTA also proposes adding a new bus line, the 63 to Sparrows Point. But even with that additional route, the net amount of proposed service is less than what is on the streets today. Our analysis shows a net result of 183 fewer bus runs during a typical week, or about 3,350 fewer service miles per week.

To analyze the changes, the Transportation Alliance looked at the number of buses scheduled to depart a given stop and made a comparison between the most recent and proposed schedules. The Transportation Alliance compared the span of service, the average headways between buses during the morning and evening rush hours, the total number of bus runs per week, and the total number of vehicle revenue miles.

Cuts in High Frequency Service

One of the MTA’s stated goals for BaltimoreLink is to maximize access to high frequency transit. The agency has touted that:

Under BaltimoreLink, an estimated 130,000 additional people — a 32% increase over the existing system — are within 1/4 mile of the frequent transit network.

To be included in the frequent transit network, routes have to meet MTA’s definition of high-frequency service: service at least every 15 minutes between 7:00AM and 7:00PM on weekdays. However, the Winter 2018 Service Change proposal contains cuts to the LocalLink 26 and 30 routes that will mean that those two routes will no longer be classified as high-frequency by MTA’s standard. Combined with a 2-mile shortening to the high-frequency CityLink Green route, this means a significant reduction in high-frequency service as part of the Winter 2018 Service Change proposal. These changes represent a setback for MTA’s stated goal of increasing the number of people with access to high-frequency service.

Net Cuts Don’t Serve Riders

From the perspective of the riders, reducing overall service levels and making buses come less frequently is the exact opposite of what MTA should be doing.

Transportation Alliance’s How’s the Ride? initiative sets forth Five Basics of great transit service that matter most to riders: Speed, Frequency, Reliability, Access, and Walkability. MTA’s proposal to reduce the number of bus runs and extend the time between buses, means that Frequency and Access will suffer.

Seattle has demonstrated that the public will use transit that runs more frequently. Between 2010 and 2014 Seattle experienced the biggest jump in bus ridership of any major U.S. city. It did so by investing in more frequent service on certain routes. Most systems in the country experienced both service cuts and ridership declines during the same period.

A Culture of Cuts

The Transportation Alliance’s analysis of the Winter 2018 Service Change proposal follows a similar analysis we did a year ago where we found that the MTA’s August 2016 service changes resulted in 11 percent fewer runs across 22 affected bus routes.

The MTA makes service changes three times per year. Typically, they are minor adjustments to routes, but occasionally they can be more significant. Finding two instances of substantial net reductions in service leads us to ask whether they are part of a larger trend.

We attempted to answer that question by looking at 10 years of data from the Federal Transit Administration’s (FTA) National Transit Database (NTD). U.S. mass transit agencies regularly report data about their operations to the FTA which makes the data publicly available via the NTD. It tracks things such as fleet size, operating expenditures, and fare revenues.

We looked for trends in two metrics: vehicle revenue hours and vehicle revenue miles. Both are measures of how much service an agency delivers.

Source: National Transit Database, https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/ntd-data

Source: National Transit Database, https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/ntd-data

By either measure the MTA put out about 5–7 percent more service on its core modes (local bus, light rail, and Metro subway) in 2016 than it did in 2007. Service peaked in 2013 by either measure and has fallen slightly since.

In the NTD data we do not find evidence of major investment or major cuts. Most of the results of BaltimoreLink changes will be reflected in the 2017 data when it becomes available. We will keep an eye out for that.

Next Steps

In the meantime we recommend MTA stick to its goal to increase access to high-frequency transit at least long enough to evaluate the results.

When the Baltimore Sun reported on our findings, the response from the MTA was to pose the question “Would they prefer we keep a static system where nothing changed?”

No, we would not. We prefer a dynamic system where the MTA and local governments try interventions and evaluate their impact on the Five Basics listed above. When an intervention is not delivering results, such as the three ExpressLink bus routes proposed for elimination, we support redeploying those resources where they can be more effective. But the service cut from underperforming routes should show up somewhere else in the system — by adding a new route or running a popular route more frequently.

In the Sun the MTA also said that our analysis was “simplistic and a bit naive.” Our goal was to take the MTA’s complicated set of proposed changes affecting 24 bus routes and boil it down. We counted the number of buses that would be out on the street and there will be fewer. We counted the miles of service those buses will provide and there will be less. Any way you slice it the net result of the MTA’s proposed Winter Service Changes would be less service; it’s as simple as that.

MTA is accepting comments on the 2018 Winter Service changes through December 20, 2017. Use this tool to submit your comments http://www.congressweb.com/CMTA/16.