In the Menlo Park district, lower enrollment could ease the district's budget woes. Consultants had previously predicted the district would have 3,151 students in 2020 and 3,280 in 2025. The new projection shows 2,939 students in 2020 and 2,979 in 2023. Enrollment in October of 2017 was 2,972.

The numbers are significant because the Menlo Park district, along with the Woodside, Portola Valley and Las Lomitas districts, is "community funded" (formerly called "basic aid"), meaning it receives most of its revenue from local sources. Little of the funding is tied to enrollment. The local revenue sources include property taxes, parcel taxes and donations.

It shows that contrary to earlier projections for continued growth, enrollment is expected to dip from current levels at district schools, not returning to current numbers until 2023.

The report, prepared by Tom Williams of Enrollment Projection Consultants, will be presented to the board of the Menlo Park City School District on Tuesday, Dec. 12. The meeting starts at 5:45 p.m. in the district's TERC room, 181 Encinal Ave. in Atherton.

The high prices of housing may be pushing young families away from local school districts, a demographer's report says, with the four districts in the Almanac's coverage area reporting a drop in enrollment between 4 and 18 percent from recent highs.

The report also gives enrollment numbers for transitional kindergarten through fourth grades in 2010-2017 for other local school districts. It shows:

● A discussion of Stanford University's Middle Plaza development on El Camino Real. Members of the city of Menlo Park subcommittee that has worked with the university on ways to mitigate the development's impacts on the community, including the school district, will attend. The university does not have to pay property taxes on the residential portion of the development even though it may add student to local schools.

"There instead was a decline in the latest birth and younger student totals in most districts," he wrote. "The further jump in housing costs since 2013 probably is factoring into this evident decline in the number of young families. The resultant lower than-previously-forecast kindergarten totals both last year and this year thus could continue," he wrote.

Mr. Williams said in his report that the previous projections were based on the expectation "that the improving job market would result in higher birth and kindergarten numbers" as it had in past decades.

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Tonight: School board reviews report on enrollment declines

Housing costs may be pushing young families away, demographer says