Back to the backstop

Theresa May has embarked on yet another dash to Brussels in the hope of securing assurances about the terms of the Irish backstop.

Brexit-backing cabinet ministers believe there should be wriggle room to provide more legal certainty, which Downing Street hopes could peel off wavering leavers when the prime minister brings her deal back to parliament for a vote in January.

But 117 Tory MPs were willing to plunge their party into a divisive leadership race just weeks away from the Brexit deadline by backing Tuesday’s no confidence vote when they already knew she was seeking such assurances.

May could fail to bring back anything fresh, but even if she gets the addendum or side-letter to the withdrawal agreement she hopes for, it seems all but certain the deal will be defeated at first pass, perhaps by a significant margin.

Downing Street would then be back where it would have been on Tuesday morning had the meaningful vote gone ahead, with 21 days to make a statement about what it plans to do next, which would have to be amendable.

Parliament takes back control

Not only is there almost certainly no majority in parliament for May’s deal, with or without “legally-binding” tweaks, it is also unclear whether there is a majority for any of the mooted alternatives either.

Cabinet ministers including the education secretary, Damian Hinds, and May’s de facto deputy, David Lidington, have suggested putting a series of motions to the House of Commons to test support for different options.

Some advocates of the idea hope it would demonstrate majority support for a “Norway-plus” deal of the kind advocated by the backbencher Nick Boles, which would see the UK tied into EU institutions.

Others believe it would flush out the fact that none of the plans ardently favoured by campaigning groups of MPs would command a majority.

They hope that would cast May’s deal in a more positive light, changing the framing of the decision MPs will have to make when she brings it back to parliament, but it could just exacerbate the hopeless sense of political deadlock gripping many at Westminster.

Second referendum

An enthusiastic group of remainers inside and outside parliament, including the prominent Labour MP Chuka Umunna and the Conservative Anna Soubry, have championed the idea of a second referendum for many months.

Labour’s position is that it would be a last resort. Jeremy Corbyn and his close advisers are sceptical about the merits of the idea, fearing it would divide the party’s supporters. They also realise though that options are narrowing as time goes on, and many of those same Labour members who support Corbyn’s leadership are also keen to see Brexit stopped.

Campaigners for a second referendum rally in London. Photograph: Xinhua/Barcroft Images

As May’s political predicament intensifies, even some inside government now suggest that throwing the question back to the public could be the least worst option.

The prime minister firmly believes her deal, with an end to free movement, better reflects voter opinion than either the Norway option or remaining in the EU.

When she clinched the deal in Brussels last month, however, she said strikingly that she wanted to “talk directly to the British public”. That caused some old hands to wonder if she was keeping the option open of giving them a vote – though the choices on the ballot paper would be hotly contested.

General election

Labour’s preferred option, as set out in its conference Brexit motion, would be to force May into a general election, which would mean tabling, and winning, a vote of no confidence in her government in the House of Commons.

That would fire the starting gun on a two-week scramble to form an alternative grouping, perhaps led by another Tory, that could command a majority in another vote. Failure to do so would trigger a general election.

Advocates of a second referendum have pressed for Labour to table a no-confidence motion as soon as possible, not least because they believe it would fail and thereby increase the pressure on the leadership to campaign for a referendum.

The shadow cabinet is divided over the best tactics, with the shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, pressing for an early vote, potentially before Christmas, if May fails to reschedule the meaningful vote.

Others, including the party chair, Ian Lavery, and the shadow justice secretary, Richard Burgon, are more cautious. They fear that if the DUP were to support the government, which for the time being it appears it would, a motion of no confidence would fail and only serve to unite the Tories.

No deal

Many of the Conservatives who backed Tuesday’s motion of no confidence in Theresa May as party leader believe a “managed” no-deal Brexit, without the loathed Irish backstop, would be better than her deal.

Their high-risk plan was to seek to install a hard Brexiter as leader and repudiate most of the fruits of two years of negotiations.

While the number who voted against the prime minister is significant, it suggests that those who favour no deal are a small minority in the 650-strong parliament. Some remainers hailed the failure of the no-confidence motion as an indication that no deal was now off the table.

One senior Conservative celebrating May’s victory on Wednesday night suggested enough of his colleagues believe no deal is unthinkable that they would even vote with Corbyn in a no-confidence motion to bring down the government rather than let it happen.

”No deal by accident” still cannot be ruled out, however, if the clock runs down to the end-of-March deadline without May managing to have her deal ratified, and the EU27 run out of patience and refuse to extend article 50.