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Prince Edward Island voters are throwing their support behind Andrew Scheer and his Conservative party in advance of the upcoming federal election, according to a new poll.

Narrative Research’s Atlantic quarterly poll conducted between May 6 and 24 also found declining voter support for the governing Justin Trudeau Liberals and more voters backing Elizabeth May’s Green party.

The Conservative Party of Canada surged to the top of the ratings, earning favour with 42 per cent of those polled, compared with 32 per cent support for the Liberals. This is almost a reversal from the May 2018 poll that saw 46 per cent support for the Liberals and 27 per cent support for the Conservatives.

The Greens are the government of choice for 22 per cent of those polled (up from 19 per cent a year ago), while NDP support dropped to four per cent from the eight per cent the party held a year ago.

“The federal NDP is struggling to maintain its position as the third party of choice in Atlantic Canada, and findings suggest they could be replaced by the Greens as the main alternative to the Liberals or Conservatives,” says Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research.

Meanwhile, Trudeau (at 29 per cent) and Scheer (at 28 per cent) are in a statistical tie among Islanders’ preference for prime minister. May is the preferred PM for 22 per cent of those polled, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earned the support of five per cent of those polled.

On a province-by-province basis, the Liberals maintain their lead in Nova Scotia, and are in a statistical tie with the Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals and hold the lead in New Brunswick.

Among the roughly one-third of Atlantic Canadians who are undecided or won’t say which party they plan to vote for, 18 per cent are leaning towards the Liberals, 15 per cent are leaning towards the Conservatives, and five per cent are leaning towards each of the Greens and the NDP, while 52 per cent of this group remains either undecided (unable to offer a leaning preference) or refuses to state which party they are leaning towards.

Meanwhile, the share of Atlantic Canadians who are satisfied with the performance of the federal Liberal government Trudeau has declined to 41 per cent, the lowest mark since the Liberals took power (down from 51 per cent in May 2018 and 48 per cent in February this year).

These results are part of Narrative Research’s independent, quarterly survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 1,500 adult Atlantic Canadians 18 years of age or older, with overall results accurate to within plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.