With the UK’s future relationship with the EU still uncertain and social distancing likely to remain a staple of our lives for some time to come, accurately predicting the near-term future of house prices is challenging.

However, in an attempt to try and gauge which way the market is most likely to head, we’ve collected and aggregated predictions from property experts to produce a ‘poll of polls’ or – more simply – an average of what most experts think will happen to house prices in 2020. Each month we then match these predictions with the latest available house price data, gaining an early insight into the health of the UK housing market.

Current Housing Market Booming

Average UK House Price* £242,395 Growth In 2020* +3.3%

Did Brexit have an impact on house prices in 2018 and 2019?

Looking at the graph below, we can see that house price growth remained strong during 2018 and 2019 with an average growth rate of 2% each year. However, it’s important to remember that there are multiple factors other than Brexit that are affecting house prices – including supply, demand, inflation and interest rates.

Current House Prices Brexit Predictions

“The reopening of the property market has led to a rapid rebound in demand for homes – followed by an unprecedented rebound in new sales agreed – which are now tracking close to early March levels. Demand for housing is now 54% higher than at the start of March, as pent-up demand returns to the property market. This is measured by looking at the number of property hunters who are actively engaged in finding out more about a property, including by making online enquiries.” A summary of the current housing market, courtesy of HomeOwners Alliance.

How much has my house price increased by this year?

Based on the most up-to-data we have, you can use our calculator below to work out how much your house might have increased in value since December 2019.

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What happens to house prices if there’s a ‘no-deal’ Brexit?

According to the Bank of England’s governor, Mark Carney, house prices could fall as much as 33% over the space of three years if a no-deal Brexit comes to pass. These predictions came off the back of the Bank of England’s stress tests, where they also warned about potential falls in the pound, rises in inflation, and the possibility of large numbers of homeowners being left in negative equity.

However, it’s important to note that this is an absolute worse case scenario which was deliberately modelled by the Bank to ensure that the financial system is prepared for any eventuality. According to the BBC, “the Governor believes that a “no deal” scenario would be bad for the economy. But not as bad as the headlines … which are based on a doomsday scenario that is not actually forecast to happen.”



Who are the industry experts?

Paula Higgins

HomeOwners Alliance

Paula Higgins is the CEO of HomeOwners Alliance, and is quoted as saying “”With a decisive election outcome in 2019, 2020 should see an end to the period of uncertainty and demand from homebuyers should pick up. Increased buyer demand and an ongoing limited supply of homes for sale is likely to mean upward pressure on house prices and we would expect to see modest annual house price growth of 2% in 2020.”

Henry Pryor

Property Commentator

Henry Pryor has been in the property industry since 1983 and is often cited by the BBC. You can follow him on Twitter here. His prediction of a 2% fall was quoted by the BBC in January 2020.

Russell Galley

Halifax

Russell Galley is the Managing Director of Halifax. His prediction of a 1% to 3% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2020.

Andrew Montlake

Coreco

Andrew Montlake is the Brand Director and Press Spokesperson at Coreco, a mortgage brokerage. His prediction of a 2% to 3% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2020.

Andrew Burrell

Capital Economics

Andrew Burrell is the Chief Property Economist at Capital Economics. His prediction of a 1.5% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2020.

Simon Rubinsohn

RICS

Simon Rubinsohn is the Chief Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (also known as RICS). His prediction of a 2% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2020.

Rightmove

Property Portal

Rightmove is the largest property portal in the UK. Its prediction of a 2% increase was reported on its website in January 2020.

How have we plotted the house price predictions?

We have used Land Registry data to provide an average house price for December 2019. From there, we have divided out the percentage increase or decrease from each of the individual property experts over a period of twelve months, and plotted this as a linear extrapolation over each month of 2020.

For ranged predictions (e.g. a 2% to 4% rise), we have taken the middle point of the prediction and plotted this number onto the graph.

What does “Land Registry (Estimated)” mean?

Land Registry house price data is one of the most authoritative sources of its type, with its headline figures using a geometric mean of UK house prices. Unfortunately it tends to be released around 1 to 2 months behind the Nationwide and Halifax’s own House Price Indexes, therefore creating a lag between the current state of the housing market and the data it provides. With this in mind, Land Registry (Estimated) is Yopa’s estimation of what the next Land Registry average house price figure will be.

It is created by taking an average of Nationwide and Halifax’s percentage increase or decrease for the following month, and then using this figure as a multiplier on Land Registry’s data from the previous month.

* For the purposes of this webpage, the definition of both Current Average UK House Price and Actual Average UK House Price is this Land Registry (Estimated) figure.







