Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans: 1PM EST, Sunday October 6th

It’s that time of the year again. It’s time to get those season win totals plays locked and loaded for the NFL and College Football. I’ve zeroed in on one in particular for the NFL after a 2-0 showing last season (UNDER 7.5 for both the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles). The play this season is OVER 8.5 (-115) wins for the Houston Texans.

I understand the initial reaction by most: Who the hell is going to play QB for the Texans to win 9 games? Well that is certainly an excellent question. My answer centers around two things primarily being the following: 1) it’s not the QB so much as the system, and 2) they can win 9 games based on the schedule and the defense.

Head Coach Billy O’Brien is entering a period where the investments and systems should start to pay off more efficiently. I’m not sold O’Brien ever wanted Osweiler as that looked to me like an ownership move to “get the best guy available” thinking they had a Super Bowl team. That wasn’t the case and now Osweiler is gone along with that huge, insane contract. O’Brien will go with a QB by committee approach and they drafted DeShaun Watson from Clemson. I like Watson. In fact, I like Watson a lot as a pro. I’m banking on O’Brien coming up with enough to win 9-10 games. There are weapons on the offense to put the ball in the end zone such as DeAndre Hopkins so the QB needs to protect the football and deliver it quickly and efficiently. They don’t need an All Pro to win 9 or more games they need someone to execute the game plan and avoid huge mistakes.

The Texans defense could be quite dangerous frankly. They led the NFL in total yards allowed and first downs allowed and were 2nd in the NFL in net passing yards allowed. Jadeveon Clowney really emerged last season and a guy named J.J. Watt is back this season. The Texans were middle of the pack in turnovers created last season and can improve on that. This Texans defense could be lethal this season. Another year under the belts for old friends Romeo Crennel and Mike Vrabel working together along with more weapons to play with could be bad news for the rest of the league.

The most important factor in betting these season win totals may be the schedule. The Texans have their bye in Week 7 which I see as a good spot. You are six games in and probably could benefit from a break and some healing time. You also don’t get any late season momentum cut off by a bye either.

The early quarter could be rough. There are games at New England and at Cincy. They need to win that Cincy game. Most of their tough, outside the division games are at home: Steelers, Cardinals, and Chiefs. They get some weak teams at home as well in the Niners and Browns along with their division battles with the Titans, Jaguars, and Colts. Nobody in the division should be deplorable yet nobody in the division is dominant either.

Coach O’Brien is a legitimate NFL Head Coach. He is not yet a star but he may be one day. I’m betting he uses this dominant defense to create more turnovers, blends in Watson by Week 10, and maneuvers his way to a 10-6 record. I’ll take the OVER 8.5 wins.

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