Florida

In 2012, Governor Scott said that he would oppose expansion; in 2013, he changed his position to support it. But he has not pressed the issue in the legislature, where opposition has been led by Will Weatherford, the Republican House speaker. Now that Mr. Scott is re-elected, the legislature is likely to continue to block Medicaid expansion, especially since the new state House speaker, already selected, has come out strongly against it. Coverage for 848,000 people is at stake, according to the Urban Institute estimate.

Kansas

Gov. Sam Brownback has strongly opposed Medicaid expansion, and he has the backing of hisRepublican-held legislature. It passed a law last year barring any governor from accepting expanded Medicaid dollars without explicit legislative approval. About 100,000 Kansans stand to gain coverage if Medicaid is expanded.

Arkansas

Gov. Mike Beebe, a Democrat, and the state’s Republican-led legislature developed one of the country’s most innovative compromises on Medicaid in 2013, known there as the “private option.” The state uses federal Medicaid dollars to buy private health plans for its low-income residents. Enrollment in the program has been significant — more than 200,000 people have already signed up — but to stay in place, the expansion must be authorized by the legislature every year by a three-fourths majority. This year, Mr. Beebe worked hard to keep expansion in place, and the program was reauthorized with no votes to spare in the state senate. His replacement, Asa Hutchinson, a Republican who has expressed only lukewarm support for the private option program, is likely to be a less forceful advocate. Democrats also lost ground in both the state house and senate, meaning it may be difficult for “private option” advocates to find the votes they need to keep it alive. About 205,000 people have already gotten coverage through the program, and would lose it if the expansion were not renewed.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania will definitely expand Medicaid next year, but election results may determine the shape of the program in future years. Gov. Tom Corbett, a Republican, and his legislature had adopted an expansion to start in January, under a federal waiver with some rules that Democrats in the state oppose. Mr. Corbett lost to his Democratic opponent, Tom Wolf; if Democrats pick up many legislative seats, it’s possible they will put their own stamp on the expansion format, though probably not right away.

Other States

There are states without governor’s races this year where Medicaid expansion could happen in 2015. Utah’s Gary Herbert is reportedly in final talks with the federal government about terms for expansion. It appears that Utah, like Arkansas, will use federal Medicaid money to buy private health plans; it may also require beneficiaries to participate in work training. Indiana’s Mike Pence has also been negotiating with federal officials, though he does not seem to be as close to a deal. In Virginia and Missouri, Democratic governors support expansion but have had little luck with their legislatures so far.