We’re bracing for COVID-19 crunch time, here in Massachusetts and in other parts of the country.

President Trump, in extending social distancing guidelines nationwide to April 30, traded his usual sanguine outlook for somber reality.

“I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We’re going to go through a very tough two weeks.”

Health experts expect our state to see a surge of patients requiring hospitalization with the coronavirus between April 7 and April 17 — potentially the apex of the infection curve.

That’s why Gov. Charlie Baker has extended his stay-at-home guidance through May 4; he’s also ordered all nonessential businesses to remain physically closed for the next month and for people to continue to avoid groups of more than 10 people.

Baker’s updated decision aligns with the orders he has already given to keep public schools and day care centers closed through April.

That’s because the state’s number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise. The Department of Public Health announced Tuesday that 868 more people had tested positive for coronavirus, bringing the total caseload to 6,620. A total of 562 people have now been hospitalized, and 89 have died, including 33 new deaths reported Tuesday.

Massachusetts can take some consolation in the fact that our per capita death rate substantially trails that of New York, where there have been nearly 80 deaths for every million people, as opposed to approximately 13 deaths per million here.

Public health experts project the number of U.S. deaths could range from 100,000 to 240,000, even if Americans continue to stay home and limit contact with others.

That might seem like discouraging data until we realize that some models have predicted more than 2 million coronavirus deaths in this country.

That assumed the worst-case scenario of complete government indifference to the spread of this novel virus.

Fortunately, that hasn’t been the case.

Most of us have heeded the call to practice social distancing, despite the hardships that come with that lack of human contact.

Absent a vaccine or recognized treatment, limiting social interaction — and practicing proper hygiene — remain the best COVID-19 defense.

And now, there’s some evidence to suggest that keeping our distance has begun to show the desired effect.

According to published reports, even while the number of positive test results continues to climb in Massachusetts, the pace of the increase has appeared to stabilize.

That’s also the case in Washington state, where the coronavirus gained its first U.S. foothold.

According to Kinsa, a company that’s been analyzing data from a million smart thermometers in homes across the United States, since social-distancing directives have taken hold, flu-like illnesses have decreased throughout much of the country, including Massachusetts.

The data, while not COVID-19 specific, nonetheless indicates that physical distancing can slow the rate of viral infections.

Even Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Trump coronavirus team’s voice of reason, can see a speck of light at the end of this challenging tunnel.

“We’re starting to see glimmers that that (social distancing) is actually having some dampening effect,” Fauci told CNN.

And now, in what might be the most critical coronavirus time frame, we must all remain vigilant by continuing to stay out of everyone else’s physical space.

Thousands of preventable COVID-19 infections and deaths hang in the balance.