For those lamenting a summer that’s been wet and stormy, there’s still hope to catch some sunshine.



Much of the Prairies are in for a mild and dry fall, Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said in a media release.



Minimal ice and snow cover in the Arctic will be a contributing factor to the mild weather pattern, the release said.



“Sea ice extent over the Arctic regions of Canada is currently running 10 to 30 per cent below normal for this time of year, and we expect this situation to persist into the fall,” Anderson said.



“Lack of snow and ice cover in northern Canada will help keep much of the region warmer to much warmer than normal later in the season as cold air masses from the far north are more easily modified.”



A weak La Niña that is forecast to develop later this year could counteract this warming trend by winter and shape the weather pattern across the country in 2017, AccuWeather says.



La Niña is a climate event characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, typically bringing colder winters to the Canadian west and Alaska.



But while AccuWeather predicts a mild fall, the 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac’s 225th anniversary edition says September and October in the Prairies will be cooler than usual. Both agree that it will be a drier fall.



The Almanac says it bases its weather forecasts from a secret formula devised in 1792 by its founder Robert B. Thomas. It has traditionally claimed 80 per cent accuracy in predicting the weather.



Long-term, seasonal weather forecasts need to be taken with a grain of salt, said CTV Edmonton’s chief meteorologist Josh Classen.



Unlike the El Niño effect, which was a really strong climate driver, making it easier to predict cooler or warmer temperatures last fall, we’re in between systems right now, said Classen,



“We’re sort of expecting that La Niña will take over. We don’t know how strong it’s going to be. It looks like it’s weak to maybe moderate and it probably takes over some time this fall, maybe not until really winter that we really start to feel the impact of it,” he said.



Another issue with both forecasts is that they tend to focus on broad areas, Classen said, adding that there can be major variation in temperatures and precipitation between different parts of the Prairies.



Some areas this fall can be cool and wet, while others are dry and warm, he said.



“It’s a lot of guesswork and the models really don’t perform all that well when you’re sort of in between.”



acharnalia@postmedia.com



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