Obama Romney 95.9% probability of winning 4.1% probability of winning Mean of 303 electoral votes Mean of 235 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney with a 93.4% to a 6.6% probability of winning an election now. Obama led 294 to 244 electoral votes

Today’s polls through about noon were…

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:



Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):

299 electoral votes with a 3.39% probability

315 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability

305 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability

314 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability

292 electoral votes with a 2.43% probability

298 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability

309 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability

302 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability

308 electoral votes with a 2.18% probability

295 electoral votes with a 2.12% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

Obama wins 95.9%, Romney wins 4.1%.

Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 303.3 (20.8)

Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 234.7 (20.8)

Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 302 (266, 345)

Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 236 (193, 272)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak Safe Obama 155 Strong Obama 84 239 Leans Obama 59 59 298 Weak Obama 17 17 17 315 Weak Romney 0 0 0 223 Leans Romney 30 30 223 Strong Romney 118 193 Safe Romney 75

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.