This blog is going to breakdown the Final 6 of Survivor Cambodia: Second Chance. It will cover both what happened and what would have been optimal for each player.

Background

The final six was Spencer,Tasha, Jeremy, Kimmi, Kelley, and Keith. Spencer, Jeremy, Tasha, and Kimmi had voted together againstKelley and Keith in the previous vote. The lines were clearly drawn as Spencer, Jeremey,Tasha, and Kimmi vs. Keith and Kelley. Spencer won immunity guaranteeing himself a spot in the Final 5.

The logical plan for the four would be to split the votes to safeguard against an idol. Kimmi wanted to use this to her advantage, and team up with Keith and Kelley to vote out Jeremy.

Tasha and Spencer were suspicious of Kimmi, because she was having conversations with Kelley and Keith, but Jeremy was confident Kimmi was with them.

What Happened

At the tribal council Spencer declares that they are not splitting the votes and that Tasha, Jeremy, and himself are voting as one, and that they are willing to go to rocks. This ruins Kimmi’s clean blindside, and the best she can now hope for is a 3-3 tie. After they cast their votes Kelley, despite being assured, by Spencer that she was safe, decided to play her Hidden Immunity Idol. Jeremy, upon seeing Kelley play her idol, decides to play his as well. This leaves Spencer (from the Immunity Necklace), Kelley (from a Hidden Immunity Idol), and Jeremy (also from a Hidden Immunity Idol) all immune from the vote. The votes are counted and its 3 for Kelley and 3 for Jeremy all of which are nullified. This means that no votes were cast. A revote is called where Spencer, Kelley, and Jeremy cannot be voted for. This results in a 3-3 tie between Kimmi and Tasha. Jeff gives the other four player (Jeremy, Kelley, Keith, and Spencer) the opportunity to change their mind. None of them decide to.

So Jeff gives Spencer, Jeremy, Kelley, and Keith a choice to unanimously decided on either Kimmi or Tasha. If they cannot the result is a deadlock. In the event of a deadlock at tribal council the players draw rocks, with all of the rocks being the same color with the exception of one. If you draw the uniquely cover rock you are eliminated from the game. The people who received the votes in the tie are immune from drawing rocking as is anyone who is immune from either the Immunity Necklace or a Hidden Immunity Idol. This means that the following players do not need to draw rocks: Tasha (One of the contestants involved in the tie), Kimmi(One of the contestants involved in the tie), Spencer (Immunity Necklace), Kelley (Hidden Immunity Idol), and Jeremy (Hidden Immunity Idol). This leaves only Keith to draw a rock, meaning he would be eliminated. After some discussion the group unanimously decides to vote off Kimmi and she is eliminated from the game.

Break Down

1) Spencer’s Declaration

When Spencer declared that Jeremy, Tasha, and himself were voting together it had multiple effects. The first was that if Kimmi was with them he likely would have lost her, as he basically told her you are on the bottom. The second thing it does is it gives Keith and Kelley a reason to vote against one another to avoid going home on a rock.

Let’s analyze this from Keith and Kelley’s points of view.

If both stick to the plan (assuming no idol plays) this would result in rocks:

The one who received votes would be immune from rocks and therefore have a 0% chance to go

The one who did not receive votes would have a 1/3 chance to go so 33.3%

There is a 1/3 chance for Kimmi to go so 33.3%

There is a 1/3 chance for Tasha to go so 33.3%

If we say that there is a 50% chance for either Kelley or Keith to be the one voted for then the chance of going home from their perspective is

= (The chance they do not receive votes)(The chance they draw the bad rock)

= (1/2)(1/3) = 1/6 16.7%

The chance of a slightly negative outcome (staying in the game, but the other one or Kimmi goes home)

= (The chance they did receive the votes)(The chance the other draws the rock) + the chance Kimmi draws the rock

= (1/2)(1/3) + (1/3)

= 1/2 = 50%

The chance of a positive outcome (Tasha goes home)

= the chance Tasha draws the rock

= 1/3 = 33.3%

So if Keith and Kelley both stick to the plan they have:

a 16.7% chance to go home

a 50% chance to get a slightly negative outcome

a 33.3% chance to get a positive outcome

Overall positive outcome = 33.3%

Overall negative outcome = 66.7%

If either one of them or both of them decides to flip:

If either or or both flips the power would be completely in the hands of Jeremy, Tasha, and Spencer, and whoever they voted for would go home. Still assuming it is a 50/50 between Keith and Kelley then:

The chance of going home is 50%.

The chance to get a slightly negative outcome is 50%.

The chance of a positive outcome is 0%.

So Spencer’s declaration should not and does not influence either Keith or Kelley to turn on one another, since if they did they are more likely to go home and have no chance at getting a positive outcome.

Therefore, Spencer’s declaration served only to alienate Kimmi if she was still with them. This ultimately makes this a bad move if everyone else is playing by the numbers, but since Kimmi was not with them, it resulted in no impact on the game. However, it should be noted that it is possible for either Keith or Kelley to have been confused and not realized that staying true was their best option.

2). The First Vote

The first vote was 3-3 between Jeremy and Kelley, but was that the right decision for either group?

As previously stated in the event of a tie, the people that received votes in that tie are immune from drawing rocks. This means if you know you are going to a tie, the person you should vote for is the person you want out the least. If you vote for your primary target you making them immune from the rocks.

The group of Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremy wanted to get rid of Kelley.

The group of Kimmi, Keith, and Kelley wanted to get rid of Jeremy.

Therefore, Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremy should vote for Keith (they could vote for Kimmi, but Jeremy though she was with them), this way Keith is immune from drawing the rock, and Kelley is eligible giving them a chance at their preferred outcome.

Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremy want Kelley out, vote for Kelley, and it goes to rocks then:

The chance of the preferred outcome (Kelley going home) = % she draws the unique rock = 0% since she is immune from drawing

The chance of a positive outcome (Keith or Kimmi going home) = % Keith draws the unique rocks + % Kimmi draws the unique rock = 1/3 + 1/3 = 2/3 = 66.7%

The chance of a negative outcome (One of them going home) = % one of them draws the unique rock = 1/3 = 33.3%

The chance of a positive or preferred outcome = the chance of preferred outcome + the chance of positive outcome = 0 + 2/3 = 66.7%

Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremy want Kelley out, vote for Keith, and it goes to rocks then:

The chance of the preferred outcome (Kelley going home) = % she draws the unique rock = 1/3 = 33.3%

The chance of a positive outcome (Keith or Kimmi going home) = % Keith draws the unique rocks + % Kimmi draws the unique rock = 0/3 + 1/3 = 1/3 = 33.3%

The chance of a negative outcome (One of them going home) = % she draws the unique rock = 1/3 = 33.3%

The chance of a positive or preferred outcome = the chance of preferred outcome + the chance of positive outcome = 1/3 + 1/3 = 66.7%

So had they voted for Keith they have the same chance of a positive or preferred outcome, but a higher chance, and an actual chance, of getting rid of their main target Kelley. The chance of a negative outcome stays the same.

It is the same for Keith, Kelley, and Kimmi. If we assume that person A,B,C are Keith, Kelley, and Kimmi (not necessarily in that order) and that person A and B did not receive votes, but person C did.

Keith, Kelley, and Kimmi want Jeremy out, vote for Jeremy, and it goes to rocks then:

The chance of the preferred outcome (Jeremy going home) = % he draws the unique rock = 0% since he is immune from drawing

The chance of a positive outcome (Tasha going home) = % Tasha draws the unique rocks = 1/3 = 33.3%

The chance of a negative outcome (One of them going home) = % chance A draws unique rock + % chance B draws unique rock = 1/3 + 1/3 = 66.7%

The chance of a positive or preferred outcome = the chance of preferred outcome + the chance of positive outcome = 0 + 1/3 = 33.3%

Keith, Kelley, and Kimmi want Jeremy out, vote for Tasha, and it goes to rocks then:

The chance of the preferred outcome (Jeremy going home) = % he draws the unique rock = 1/3 = 33.3%

The chance of a positive outcome (Tasha going home) = % Tasha draws the unique rocks = % she draws the unique rock = 0% since she is immune from drawing

The chance of a negative outcome (One of them going home) = % chance A draws unique rock + % chance B draws unique rock = + 1/3 1/3 = 66.7%

The chance of a positive or preferred outcome = the chance of preferred outcome + the chance of positive outcome = 0 + 1/3 = 33.3%

So had they voted for Tasha they have the same chance of a positive or preferred outcome, but a higher chance, and an actual chance, of getting rid of their main target Jeremy. The chance of a negative outcome stays the same.

So if both groups knew going in to the vote that they were going to tie and go to rocks they voted for the wrong people. However, the group of Keith, Kelley, and Kimmi though they were going to be blindsiding Jeremy, so they would have had to change their vote after Spencer’s declarations. Making Spencer’s declaration even worse than it had previously seemed. The group of Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremy knew pre-tribal of the possibility of a rock draw so they have no excuse. Ironically, if either group had made the right decision they would have dodged the other groups idol.

3). Kelley Plays her Idol

Kelley played her idol thus negating any votes cast for her, when 3 were coming here way, a seeming great move. Since this is entirely Kelley’s decision let’s analyze it from her point of view:

This is a very complicated decision when analyzing it further. The first thing Kelley has to figure out is, does the other group also have an idol? She can likely conclude that Keith does not have an idol since he most likely would have told her, she also know that she has 1 idol, so if there are two idols there are 5 possible locations for the second. Jeremy, Spencer, Tasha, Kimmi, or unfound. 3 of the 5 outcomes are not good for Kelley, however, all outcomes are not equally likely, part of what makes this a difficult decision.

If the other group does have an idol and she plays hers it will certainly prompt the other group to play theirs. Even if the votes Kelley played and idol on the wrong person Jeremy would likely play his. The reason for this is with Kelley playing her idol, the receiver is now immune from rocks, so only Kimmi and either Tasha or Jeremy (whichever did not receive votes) would draw and this seems like an unnecessary risk for Jeremy or whoever of the three might have an idol.

So if the other has an idol and Kelley plays hers this is how it breaks down:

Assuming that Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremy are voting for either Kelley or Keith (and that Kimmi is off the table):

The chance of the person she voted for going home = % chance she plays her idol on the right person * % chance Jeremy plays his on the wrong person = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%

The chance of the person they voted for goes home = % chance she plays her idol on the wrong person * % chance Jeremy plays his on the right person = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%

The chance of going to rocks where Kimmi is only person to draw = % chance she plays her idol on the wrong person * % chance Jeremy plays his on the wrong person = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%

The chance of going to revote with 2 more players immune = % chance she plays her idol on the right person * % chance Jeremy plays his on the right person = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%

At the revote with 2 people immune, only bad things can happen for Kelley. If she played the idol on herself, it will boil down to Keith or Kimmi going home (what actually happened). If she played the idol on Keith, it will be herself or Kimmi. Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremy are completely safe as long as they stick together since Spencer is immune from the Immunity Necklace, either Tasha or Jeremy is immune from the Hidden Immunity Idol, and the other is immune from drawing rocks because they received votes in the tie.

So going to revote with 2 more players immune is a completely negative outcome for Kelley.

The chance of a positive outcome = the chance of the person she voted for going home = 1/4 = 25%

The chance of a negative outcome = The chance of the person they voted for goes home + the chance of going to rocks where Kimmi is only person to draw +the chance of going to revote with 2 more players immune = 1/4+1/4+1/4 = 3/4 = 75%

This chance has a lower positive outcome chance than going to rocks with no idols. However, playing the idol on herself makes her go from 16.7% chance to go home to a 0% chance. So it keeps herself safer, while lowering her chance at a positive outcome.

If she assumes the other side does not have an idol then:

The chance of the person she voted for going home = % chance she plays her idol on the right person= 1/2 = 50%

The chance of they go to rocks where 3 more people are immune = % chance she plays her idol on the wrong person = 1/2 = 50%

If they go to rocks where 3 more people are immune the only people eligible to draw rocks are whichever of Keith, Kelley, Kimmi did not receive votes or get an idol played on them and Tasha or Jeremy (whoever did not receive votes). Meaning this scenario is good for Kelley 50% of the time and bad for her 50% of the time.

The chance of a positive outcome = The chance of the person she voted for going home + (The chance of they go to rocks where 3 more people are immune)(The chance of rocks going her way) = 1/2 +(1/2)(1/2) = 3/4 = 75%

The chance of a negative outcome = (The chance of they go to rocks where 3 more people are immune)(The chance of rocks not going her way) = (1/2)(1/2) = 1/4 = 25%

This gives Kelley a much higher chance of a positive outcome, and if she played it on herself eliminates all risk of her going home.

So for Kelley this was the right move is she believes they didn’t have an idol, the wrong move if she believes they did have an idol. Really tough position to be in and very hard to judge if this was the right move or not.

4). Jeremy Plays his Idol

Once Kelley plays her idol, and he knows they all voted for her, Jeremy played his to save himself.

This one is pretty cut and dry, either he plays the idol on the right person and Keith or Kimmi goes, or he plays it on the wrong person and himself or Tasha goes. He has to play it and he has to play it right, kudos to him for doing so.

5). Does anyone want to change their vote?

After the second vote where Kelley, Jeremy, and Spencer were immune the situation is a 3-3 tie between Kimmi and Tasha. This means if they go to rocks Keith is gone by default. Jeff gives everyone the opportunity to change their votes, and to make things even better for Keith he got to make his decision last. If he changes his vote Kimmi goes, if he doesn’t it’s him (unless they all unanimously agree to vote Kimmi after the fact). Keith should have changed his vote to Kimmi and eliminated any risk of going home. This night was very confusing rules wise, and Keith did not seem to know what was going on, so he likely did not realize the consequences of not changing his vote.

6). Spencer, Jeremy, Kelley, and Keith agreeing to send Kimmi home

So after everyone agrees to now change their vote Jeff says Spencer, Jeremy, Kelly, and Keith have to unanimously decide to send home Tasha or Kimmi and if they cannot Keith goes home. Right off the bat Spencer says Tasha is not going home. Meaning it is down to Keith or Kimmi. The four of them agree to eliminate Kimmi. If Spencer and Jeremy choose to disagree with each other, preventing a unanimous decision then Keith will go regardless of Kelley and Keith’s opinion on the matter. By eliminating Keith they get rid of a much bigger challenge threat, meaning it is easier to get rid of Keith now and Kimmi later than to do the opposite which is what they did.

Summary

This is was one of the most epic, confusing, and complicated tribal councils in Survivor history. It was an absolute joy to watch on TV, but I do not think it was perfectly played. This is to be expect the players are under a lot of stress, they are tired, hungry, and dealing with constant fear and paranoia. I think it’s amazing to see all the quick and bold decisions that Survivor players make each and every season. Remember these players don’t have access to all of the information that we do and with the all of the conditions working against them, as well as the extreme pressure of being on national TV and competing for a million dollars it’s not easy to see all of these small, but potentially very important details. I would love to be able to see how these different decisions would have altered the game, and while what happened may not have been the most strategic outcome I think it was definitely the most entertaining.

Definite Mistakes:

Spencer – His declaration + voting for Kelley + not intentionally disagreeing with Jeremy

Jeremy – Voting for Kelley + not intentionally disagreeing with Spencer

Tasha – Voting for Kelley

Kimmi – None

Keith – Not changing his vote

Kelley – None

Maybe Mistakes:

Spencer – None

Jeremy – None

Tasha – None

Kimmi – Voting for Jeremy

Keith – Voting for Jeremy

Kelley – Voting for Jeremy + playing her idol

Definite Good Choice:

Spencer – None

Jeremy – Playing his idol

Tasha – None

Kimmi – None

Keith – None

Kelley – Nome

Ironically, one of only two people who did not make a definite mistake got sent to the jury. What a crazy tribal!