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Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has warned the UK it will forfeit the EU’s trust and the Brexit transition period if it fails to ratify the withdrawal deal.

In a speech at the European Economic and Social Committee in Brussels, one of the EU’s lesser-known institutions, Barnier said:

Without ratification there will be neither a withdrawal agreement nor a transition period, nor will there be the mutual trust that we need, in order to construct the future relationship on a sound basis

His point is not a new one, although it is often missed by prominent Brexit supporting MPs.

Esther McVey, who resigned as work and pensions secretary over Brexit, said recently it appeared possible to get an “implementation period” without signing the withdrawal agreement. The former Brexit secretary, David Davis, has made similar claims.

Barnier said there were only two ways to leave the EU: “an orderly withdrawal” based on the current agreement; or “a disorderly withdrawal”, which he said would set the UK back decades.

If we fail in the Brexit negotiations, we will be stepping back, or at least the UK will be stepping back, to a time before it was a member of the EU and the single market, when customs duties were part of the day-to-day life of our businesses. So this no-deal scenario can’t be excluded today. Opposing ‘no-deal’ will not stop ‘no-deal’ from happening at the end of March. To stop ‘no-deal’, a positive majority for another solution will need to emerge.

Barnier also devoted significant time explaining why checks would be needed to control goods coming into the EU from the UK, although he did not say these checks would be done at the Irish border.



“The border with Ireland is the border of our 27 countries,” he said, pointing out that the EU needed to carry out checks on all products coming into the single market to protect consumers, companies and government budgets.

This is the latest sign that the EU is stepping up its communications effort to explain what happens on the island of Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Barnier also revealed mounting EU exasperation with the UK over the border issue, nothing that the all-UK backstop was based on “a specific request from the UK” and “wasn’t our idea”.

The backstop is the insurance plan to prevent the re-emergence of a hard border, if trade talks fail to find a solution in time.

British negotiators regard the all-UK backstop as a win over the EU’s initial proposal of a Northern Ireland-only backstop, which Theresa May said no prime minister could ever accept because she thinks it creates unacceptable differences within the UK.

