Successive Conservative chancellors since 2010 have a good record on jobs. Now the labour market is slackening, with the employment rate falling slightly in the three months to August from the previous quarter, to 75.9 per cent, and one indicator is potentially worrying. Companies are revising downwards their hiring plans. It’s reasonable to conclude that uncertainty over Brexit is causing them to defer hiring and investment, but there are grounds for believing that employers may struggle over the long term to fill vacancies. On the face of it, that ought to bid up the price of labour and thereby boost real wages after a long squeeze on living standards. Will it happen? I doubt it.

First, let’s look at the figures. A commentary by the