While bitcoin prices have edged up sharply ahead of the SEC’s upcoming decision on the long-in-the-works Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, at least one major hedge fund is selling off into the rally.

In an email sent today to its mailing list, Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund (GABI), a Jersey-based investment vehicle that buys and sells bitcoin on behalf of investors, said it believes the market is now signaling a potential approval too strongly for its taste.

Ultimately, GABI said it believes “it does not seem likely” that investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss will receive approval for the vehicle, which they first filed in 2013.

GABI wrote in an email today:

“Without the ETF launch, should that be the case after that deadline, and with the aforementioned issues in China, we believe the market will be short of a catalyst and will have trapped some overly optimistic long positions. We will continue to reduce our exposure into the decision date.”

GABI goes on to write that it projects a 25% chance of approval on the decision. Either way, sources tell CoinDesk a decision is likely to happen this week.

“If it turns out we are wrong, and the ETF does launch, we will certainly miss a spike and will extend this month’s underperformance into next,” the statement continues.

However, even if the ETF does not launch, GABI is optimistic bitcoin’s price will head higher – even with continued scrutiny on the market from China’s central bank.

“We think the ‘bull’ case for bitcoin will be considerably strengthened, and as such, we would expect a very protracted rally in which we will quickly seek to participate,” the email reads.

Elsewhere, the firm discussed the results of trading decisions earlier in the year, highlighting how its performance has been affected by developments in China, and how it has shifted its strategy in response.

Launched in 2014, GABI received regulatory approval for its offering from the Jersey Financial Services Commission (JFSC). Principles for the fund include Jean-Marie Mognetti, Daniel Masters and Russell Newton.

Read the full note here.

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