Other economists believe that Big Data’s economic punch is just a few years away, as engineers trained in data manipulation make their way through college and as data-driven start-ups begin hiring. And of course the recession could be masking the impact of the data revolution in ways economists don’t yet grasp. Still, some suspect that in the end our current framework for understanding Big Data and “the cloud” could be a mirage.

“I think it’s conceivable that the data era will be a bust for the things people expect it to be useful for,” said Scott Wallsten, a senior fellow at the Technology Policy Institute and the Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy. Some entirely new use will have to turn up for data to fulfill its economic potential, he added.

There is no disputing that a wide spectrum of businesses, from e-marketers to pharmaceutical companies, are now using huge amounts of data as part of their everyday business.

Josh Marks is the chief executive of one such company, masFlight, which helps airlines use enormous data sets to reduce fuel consumption and improve overall performance. Although his first mission is to help clients compete with other airlines for customers, Mr. Marks believes that efficiencies like those his company is chasing should eventually expand the global economy.

For now, though, he acknowledges that most of the raw data flowing across the Web has limited economic value: far more useful is specialized data in the hands of analysts with a deep understanding of specific industries. “The promises that are made around the ability to manipulate these very large data sets in real time are overselling what they can do today,” Mr. Marks said.

Some economists argue that it is often difficult to estimate the true value of new technologies, and that Big Data may already be delivering benefits that are uncounted in official economic statistics. Cat videos and television programs on Hulu, for example, produce pleasure for Web surfers — so shouldn’t economists find a way to value such intangible activity, whether or not it moves the needle of the gross domestic product?

In addition, infrastructure investments often take years to pay off in a big way, said Shane Greenstein, an economist at Northwestern University. He cited high-speed Internet connections laid down in the late 1990s that have driven profits only recently. But he noted that in contrast to the Internet’s first wave, which created services like the Web and e-mail, the impact of the second wave — the Big Data revolution — is harder to discern above the noise of broader economic activity.