7 Shares 0



7

0







The history of the Sino-Afghan relationship goes back to the 7th Century when Chinese Monks used to travel to Afghanistan via the Silk Road, visiting Buddha statues in the Bamiyan province - central part of the country. This shared history was a driving force behind the Dalai Lama’s concern over the destruction of these historical monuments by the Taliban. Islam, the tenets of which strictly prohibit idolatry, was cited by the Taliban as the reason to carry out its cultural terrorism.

During the mayhem of 1990s in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Southeast Asia occupied much of Chinese economic and commercial attention. Afghanistan was ignored. However, China was not totally disconnected from the country. It was closely watching the emergence of the Taliban in the mid 1990s and was part of “6 plus 2” format, created in 1999 under a UN framework with the aim of promoting political reconciliation in Afghanistan. Chinese policy toward Afghanistan, however, changed in late 2001 when the Taliban was overthrown by American-led coalition forces. The removal of the Taliban from power resulted in a multi-ethnic and broad-based interim government in Kabul. China, announced its support for the new dispensation led by Hamid Karzai. The support was followed by economic engagement with Afghanistan.

A Friendly Neighbor

China has had a tension-free relationship with Afghanistan. The two countries never had any dispute since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1955. As a matter of fact, in December 2002, China, was one of the six countries sharing a border with Afghanistan that signed the “Good Neighborly Relations Declaration.” The aim of this UN backed agreement was to achieve peace and stability in the region but more importantly, a commitment from its neighbors to play a constructive and supportive role in the country based on the principles of territorial integrity, mutual respect, friendly relations, co-operation and non-interference in the internal affairs of Afghanistan. However, China’s involvement in war-torn Afghanistan has not been without controversies, either. For example, a month ago, Reuters reported that China might have a military presence in Afghanistan – an unprecedented action. Based on available reports and official statements from both sides, there is no agreement between the two countries to facilitate a Chinese military presence in Afghanistan. If the report turned out to be authentic, it will be a serious cause of concern for the U.S., which has a significant military presence in the country and huge political clout. The report might also make India, the economic rival of China in Asia and immediate neighbor of Afghanistan, uneasy. India, which has a close relationship with Afghanistan, might assume a Chinese military presence in Afghanistan to be advantageous in favor of Pakistan, its arch-regional rival. (1)

Chinese Economic Engagement

China, which shares a small border of 97 kilometers with Afghanistan known as “Wakhan Corridor,” joined its reconstruction process after the formation of the Afghan interim government in 2001. To date it has pledged $ 327 million worth of aid to Afghanistan to help it improve its infrastructure. In 2014, China committed to train 3,000 Afghan professionals, and provide 500 scholarships for Afghan students. But most of China’s attention has been on improvement of Afghanistan’s economic condition by investing in the country, particularly focusing on exploring its natural resources. An American report from 2010 values Afghanistan untapped natural resources at $1 trillion. This is an attractive incentive for Chinese companies. As a result, in 2006, China’s State-owned China Metallurgical Group (MCC) invested an astounding $ 3.5 billion in Afghanistan’s Aynak copper field located in the Logar province, southeast of capital Kabul. So far, it is one of China’s largest foreign direct investments in its history. The investment not only involves mining but also construction of a $500 million electrical plant and a railway system from Tajikistan to Pakistan to support the exploration.

In December 2011, China inked another massive deal with Afghanistan, this time in the energy sector. According to the details of the agreement, state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), will develop three oil fields in the northern region along the Amu Darya river. The deposits are estimated to contain about 87 million barrels of oil. Under the deal, Afghanistan will take 70 percent of the net profits, and the Chinese oil company will pay a 15 percent corporation tax. Based on estimates, the deal could earn Afghanistan $7 billion over 25 years. Additionally, Afghanistan is part of “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) project, China’s most ambitious foreign economic development initiative connecting China and Europe via railway link. This project which is worth $40 billion, was launched in 2014 with the aim of “reviving the ancient “Silk Road” between China and Europe via Afghanistan and Central Asia, stretching to Iran, the Middle East, and south to the Indian Ocean to the Chinese-funded Gwadar port in Pakistan.” In late 2016, the first brick of Silk Road project was laid when the first train with Chinese goods arrived in Hairatan port of Mazar-e-Sharif, in the north of the country. It was a positive step to end commercial isolation of landlocked Afghanistan and the first step for China in realizing its ambitious OBOR project.

American Concerns

So far, we have not seen any flare up of confrontation – diplomatic, political, economic and military - between China and United Sates vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Both of them officially follow the same stated objective of bringing political stability and economic advancement in the country. Until now, Afghanistan may be able to encourage cooperation between the two superpowers. Several years ago, there was talk of a “Free Ride” by western political commentators in relation to Chinese investments in Afghanistan. They had a suspicious attitude, and resentment toward China’s approach. The main argument was that China is getting lucrative deals in Afghanistan at the expense of Western companies. The “Free Ride” narrative is used by Americans with regard to development aid too. China has contributed quite less in aid money to Afghanistan, whereas, the U.S. provides significant aid money to Afghanistan. For 2017 fiscal year, America has committed $4.7 billion in economic, development, and military assistance. This has annoyed American leaders, who think China is getting a free ride for its lesser aid contribution. Overall, there is a meaningful balance between the U.S and China when it comes to their dealings with Afghanistan. None of them wants the situation to deteriorate and Afghanistan to become a battlefield to fight for their narrow interests.

Chinese Engagement in the Peace Process

By now it should be clear that there is no military solution to the Afghan conflict. Since 2001, American and NATO forces have been following a military approach, but no tangible solution has been produced. The Taliban has neither been defeated nor weakened. The group is stronger than ever and has been mounting regular, daring and deadly attacks on major cities, killing Afghan security forces and civilians. Just recently, it attacked a military base in the north of Afghanistan killing more than 100 soldiers, leaving the country shocked. On the other hand, the peace process initiated by the Afghan government, supported by the United States, China, EU, UN and other regional countries, has not produced any breakthrough either. Hence, it is really a catch-22 situation in terms of achieving peace in Afghanistan is concerned. The stalemate is real and quite frustrating for Afghans.

I think this is where China’s role in facilitating the Afghan peace process can come in handy. There are many points to support this argument. For one, Pakistan, the main financial, military and political backer of the Taliban, is a strategic ally of China. The strategic partnership goes back to the independence of Pakistan in 1947. Since then, the two countries have enjoyed a close relationship. China, which has tremendous influence in the Pakistani corridor of power, can encourage Pakistan to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. There are significant incentives for China to persuade Pakistan. As mentioned early in the article, Chinese economic investments in Afghanistan are colossal. They will be under threat from the insurgency led by the Taliban. To protect its investments and the lives of Chinese experts who implement the projects, China has much at stake in cajoling Pakistan to bring the Taliban to the table. Secondly, China is the second largest economy in the world. Its financial muscle is strengthening each day, both in the region and beyond. To compete with the U.S., the largest economy, China needs to invest more. Since Afghanistan is resource-abundant, it makes it a good investment destination for Chinese companies. So, for China, peace in Afghanistan is a further step to catch up with the U.S. in terms of its influence in the country and region.

Thirdly, sharing a border with Afghanistan, although a small one, should be an impetus for China to be more active in the Afghan peace process and stability. If things get out of control, it will surely spillover to China. The prospect of Kabul being overtaken by the Taliban again or other fundamentalist groups such as ISIS is the worst scenario for Beijing. The Chinese province of Xinjiang, predominated with Uyghur Muslims, might be the victim of the spillover. The fundamentalism and religious extremism in Afghanistan will affect the Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

Fourth, China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Under the UN Charter, the Security Council has the primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. If China desires to be active in the Afghan peace process, it has the card and the capacity to use its membership to push for stability in Afghanistan. In this regard, China would be doing what the Security Council expects it to do i.e. maintaining peace and security in Afghanistan. I know the UN route is a bit naïve, as it is extremely challenging to forge consensus in the Council, since each member has competing interests in Afghanistan.

Fifth, China is already involved in the peace process in Afghanistan. It is part of “Quadrilateral Coordination Group” (QCG) to get regional countries to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. Besides China, the United States is also member of the group. Both countries want peace in Afghanistan, though the peace will serve their respective interests differently. A number of meetings have been held between the group and the Taliban. So far, the group has not achieved any visible gains, but it is a good platform to pursue the objective of peace. China is also part of the “Istanbul Process,” which aims to provide a platform to discuss regional issues, particularly encouraging security, political, and economic cooperation among Afghanistan and its neighbors. The Istanbul Process is a broader framework with more members. Bringing peace in Afghanistan is not part of its mandate, but contacting with the Taliban in the pursuit of security is a possibility. These two vital venues can be used to talk to the Taliban and explore the ways and means of bringing stability in Afghanistan. If determination and political will exist, China can be instrumental in both the platforms to put Afghan peace at the top of the agenda. In addition, China, in recent time, has become more involved in global hotspots. It has an envoy to the Syrian conflict, a Special Representative for Africa that deals with conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan, and it was one of the important members of P5+1 arrangement that resolved the Iranian nuclear crisis in 2015. These high profile global engagements give China enough leverage, credibility and potential to be more active in resolving the Afghan conflict.

Finally, there is the OBOR project. This project will be more than an incentive for China to do more to contribute to providing stability in Afghanistan. This trans-regional infrastructure investment requires security. Groups such as the Taliban, ISIS and other insurgent groups with sanctuaries in Afghanistan and Pakistan – both part of the OBOR project - will create serious security challenges unless they are dealt with. According to The National Interest, the project will “integrate Xinjiang province and overcome Uyghur separatism and fundamentalism through the delivery of economic development.” In addition, OBOR would give China a greater stake in the future security and prosperity of Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The increasing number of terrorist attacks in Xinjiang, which China blames on militants based in the Afghanistan-Pakistan tribal areas, has revealed to Beijing that it “can no longer rely on the partial outsourcing of its security to the American military presence in Afghanistan, nor the Pakistani military along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.” Hence, Beijing should be more active and direct in its approach to the security and peace in Afghanistan if it wants to implement its ambitious OBOR project. The stakes could not be higher.

Footnote:

(1). Afghanistan being the victim of historically fraught relationship between China and India should not not be underestimated. Both the countries might pursue similar strategies towards Afghanistan as a way to continue their economic and political competition with one another. Both seek regional hegemony. Many of the reports of China's People's Liberation Army patrols along the border or "small" incursions into Afghanistan come from Indian sources. This shows how sensitive Sino-Indian relations are.