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F1 2005 Season Preview by Richard Randle

It's March 6th 2005, the damn alarm clock is going off, but you're not going to work. Blurry eyed, you struggle out of bed, tiptoe downstairs, trying not to fall over in the process, turn on the TV, and slump into the sofa. You're about to watch the start of the 2005 Formula One season in Melbourne. Expectations are high, who is going to win, will Ferrari and Michael Schumacher finally surrender their dominance of F1? Can't you wait that long? Maybe this season preview will answer any lingering questions. Focus-F1's Richard Randle and the mysterious FF1Guru discuss the new season.

Ferrari Richard: OK lets get this straight, Ferrari face a stern challenge this year. FF1Guru: What? You mean that they won't win the championship? Richard: No, I didn't say that, but they face a strong challenge from Renault and in particular McLaren, who have what is considered to be the strongest driver line up in F1. Guru: But will Ferrari be fast? Richard: Undoubtedly, they have the best men in the game. Rory Byrne is regarded as the best designer in F1, and Ross Brawn's strategies are better than none. Guru: I thought Rory Byrne had retired? Richard: No, not yet anyway. He's gradually phasing out his involvement in F1 though. He didn't actually design the F2005 but he would have had a strong influencing role in the design process. Guru: F2005? I thought this years car was the F2004M? Richard: Ah, you've been caught out. Because the 2005 regulations were announced so late last year, Ferrari are one of the teams who realised that taking a brand new car to Melbourne would be a huge risk. Therefore for the first four races at least this year, the Ferrari you will see will be an updated version of last year's dominant vehicle. Guru: Ah so that's why you say they are facing a challenge this year? Richard: Yes, the 2004 car is at the pinnacle of development, in other words there isn't much the team can do to make it faster. This means that the other teams are likely to have a slight advantage in Melbourne, but as we saw in 2002, this is not always the case. However Michael Schumacher is slightly worried that the team will be slow at Melbourne. Guru: They won't be slow surely, what's the tyre situation like this year? Richard: Well historically the Ferrari team have always had an advantage when it comes to tyres, simply because they are the top team, and Bridgestone get them to do most of the tyre development work. However this year, only 3 teams are on Bridgestone, they being Ferrari, Jordan and Minardi. Add to that the new one set of tyres rule for the race, it means that the Bridgestone tyres are possibly going to be under-developed, especially as Minardi and Jordan don't test much, and that the seven other teams use Michelin. Ferrari valued Sauber input last year, but with that team moving to Michelin, Ferrari have no other 'strong' teams running Bridgestone's Guru: But the drivers can make up for that can't they? Richard: For sure, Michael Schumacher is still the best in F1, no matter what anyone else says, and Rubens Barrichello is always there waiting in case something were to go wrong for Michael, look at Monza and China last year for example. Guru: So Rich, how well do you think they will do this year? Richard: Well they will be up there for sure, and they are my tip for both championships this year. However they will not dominate like they did in 2004, which can only be good for Formula One.

BAR Richard: BAR, definitely the surprise of 2004, however 2005 will not be the same I fear. Guru: Why not, surely a team that finishes second in the world championship can't be knocked down too easily? Richard: You're right, but 2004 was an exceptional year. Williams and McLaren were both disappointing throughout the season, allowing BAR to leap over them into second place. Lets not forget that Renault were ahead of them for most of the year too, until Flavio Briatore told his crew to stop development on their 2004 car and start with the 2005 model, allowing BAR to move ahead of them aswell. Guru: So you're saying that BAR will not be as quick as them this year? Richard: Well BAR are a young team still, and their day will come. However in 2004 they were the only top 5 team not to win a race. They had plenty of opportunities but for one reason or another they failed to capitalise on their chances. I hope this year will not see the same story, but for sure the sacking of Dave Richards will certainly have had an effect on the team morale. Guru: But the recent partial takeover by Honda will do them some good. Richard: I think so, Honda have an excellent technical background, and last years engine was a screamer, however it had a tendency to break down, especially with Sato at the wheel, and word is that the 2005 engine has yet to complete a two race distance trouble free, so reliability will be a problem. Guru: A lot of people in Britain think that Jenson Button is the real deal, is this the right team for him? Richard: Well up until August last year, Jens seemed to really enjoy life in the team, and they were both doing a brilliant job. However with the whole 'Buttongate' saga about his switch to the Williams team that was eventually stopped by the courts, one has to wonder what the atmosphere is like within the team, and whether this will hamper the teams performance this year. Guru: So what's the situation now, is he staying at BAR after 2005 or will he be on his way to Williams for 2006? Richard: Well only Jenson and Williams will know that for sure. All I can say is that if Jenson has 70% or more of the championship leaders points come mid season, then he cannot leave (i.e. if Jenson has 70 or more points and the leader has 100, Jenson must stay at BAR). Guru: So when will we know this? Richard: Rumour has it that the British Grand Prix is the crunch time. Guru: So by then we'll know? Richard: Probably. Guru: So what about Takuma Sato? Richard: Well he didn't really perform as well as Jenson did last year, although he suffered many more technical problems. However the recent Honda takeover will pretty much guarantee his seat for a while. He's a bright talent, and his banzai overtaking attempts were awesome to watch, but he still needs to calm down a little. Guru: So how do you see the team doing this year? Richard: Well for sure they'll be up there, but if McLaren and Williams get their act together this year, then they should be worried. Third in the championship would be a very good result this year.

Renault Richard: 2004 was a good year for Renault, and as far as I'm concerned 2005 will be even better. Together with McLaren I expect to see them challenging for regular race wins in 2005. Guru: So what you are saying is they are Ferrari beaters? Richard: Well its too early to tell, but Ralf Schumacher reckons so. Guru: Really? They're looking that good? Richard: Well its not worth coming to firm conclusions before the season starts. But they have been very quick in pre-season testing, although the reliability leaves a bit to be desired. Guru: The reliability is not good then? Richard: Well there are doubts about the car lasting two race distances, Fernando Alonso has said that they cannot go to Melbourne the way they are at the moment, which is a bit of a worry, particularly when they are in the position to beat Ferrari in the first few races. Guru: Ah that's a pity then, the car looks the part though, I'm sure I've seen it before though. Richard: Well if you are talking about the nose you may be right, it looks pretty similar to the McLaren last year, you just have to hope it goes a bit better than the McLaren did in the first half of last year. Other that that the bodywork is even more curvy than last year, and there are a load of 'gill's' on the engine cover to keep the car cool. It looks damn good, and it's been going like it too. Guru: So about the drivers, Fernando Alonso is a star of the future and Fisichella has returned, who will be the better driver? Richard: Well to be honest Fernando was a slight disappointment last year. Jarno Trulli, his team mate was beating him in the championship before Renault sacked him and he moved to Toyota. I think this year is a make or break season for both him and Fisichella though, but I see Giancarlo just edging it, simply because he has more to prove. Guru: Last year politics in the team was a real problem, will it be the same this year? Richard: You have to hope not. Last year Renault ruined their aspirations for second in the constructors championship with the whole Jarno Trulli affair. Flavio Briatore and Jarno had a huge fall-out, Jarno left Briatore's management company, and Briatore sacked him from the team. Jarno claimed he was being given inferior equipment compared to Alonso, and he didn't score a single point after the French Grand Prix, where he lost third place on the final lap when Rubens Barrichello overtook him. Jarno was replaced by Jacques Villeneuve for the final 3 races of the year, but that was a disaster. They can't afford messy inner team politics this year if they are going to challenge Ferrari. Guru: So how do you think their season will pan out? Richard: They will be worth keeping an eye out for. They will certainly be challenging Ferrari in the first few races, but after the Italians unleash their new car at Barcelona the story may change. Guru: Possible title challengers? Richard: Don't write them off, but I would be surprised if they were the champions at the end of the year.

Williams Guru: OK before you start rambling on, I just want to say that I think Williams will be serious challengers this year. Richard: Well I disagree, but why do you think that? Guru: Mark Webber, pure and simple. If he's as good as he seemed at Minardi and Jaguar then Williams are looking good. Richard: OK I'll give you that one, but if Williams finish above where they finished last year I will be pleasantly surprised. Guru: I don't understand why you feel like that, it seems they are in a good position this year. Richard: Granted they've looked good in testing, but testing is not racing. Rumour has it that Mark Webber is frustrated with the cars aero balance and its apparent lack of downforce. Guru: But isn't that to be expected, a lack of downforce? Richard: Well the FIA cut downforce levels by around 30% over the winter, and while it appears that the other teams have got the majority of this back, Williams may not have. Guru: Ah so that might explain why Mark spun it deliberately on the first day of testing? Richard: Well one would hope not, I'm sure he's more professional than that. Guru: Would the 'Buttongate' saga have affected them in any way? Richard: Of course, the team wanted Jens to drive alongside Webber, and when a matter goes into the courts its bound to take a little more effort from the other departments within the team. However Williams are a highly professional bunch, and their new second driver Nick Heidfeld is certainly no slouch. Guru: I wonder if the men from Munich had anything to do with that? Richard: Well to give Nick credit, he was very good over long distances and was able to look after his tyres better than Antonio Pizzonia did. However being a German, he would have been the preferred choice of BMW. Guru: BMW traditionally produce an absolute screamer of an engine, that isn't likely to change this year is it? Richard: Well last years engine was actually about fourth in the power ratings, behind Honda, Ferrari and even Toyota we are led to believe. However BMW's are generally very powerful, and so you have to expect to see a similar performance this year. Guru: So how will they do this year? Richard: Well they will certainly be up there fighting for podiums. Whether or not they can win is a different matter, but should Webber get on the podium at Melbourne the Aussies will go wild!

McLaren Richard: Read my lips, in 2005, McLaren will go very, very well. Guru: Ah someone's confident! Richard: Well they seem in very good shape. They have probably the best driver line up in Formula One at the moment, and the car and engine have been going very well during winter testing. Guru: Any reliability issues as of yet, their reliability last year was a real problem wasn't it? Richard: Well there has been nothing major yet, although that was the same last year and when the team got to Melbourne, the cars were both slow and unreliable. Guru: So what about the drivers? Richard: Well they are widely acknowledged as being the strongest driver line up in Formula One at the moment, but that was the case with Senna and Prost in 1988 and 1989, and we all know what happened then. Guru: So you're saying that they will try to take each other out if they are fighting for the championship? Richard: No I didn't say that, but don't expect them to be strong mates. Guru: If that's the case, whats the chances of inner fighting between the two spoiling their chances of winning the drivers championship? Richard: Well if the two are constantly taking points off each other then they could well lose any chances of a drivers title. Michael Schumacher could finish third at every race and still be a champion. We saw a similar situation in 1986, when Mansell and Piquet were dominating the championship, yet because they took points of each other, Alain Prost in the McLaren was able to claim the championship. Guru: But still they stand a good chance in the constructors championship? Richard: Well you have to hope so, McLaren were the last team to win a championship apart from Ferrari, but they last won it in 1999, and one wonders if they have forgotten how to win a championship, much like Williams have. Guru: So you're saying they wont win it this year? Richard: Well don't jump to conclusions, but McLaren have the advantage of being able to run a car in Friday practices as they finished outside the top four last year. This means that they have an extra driver to help with set up issues etcetera, and therefore, like BAR last year, they could be strong during the races. However second place in the constructors would be a good result for the team this year.

Sauber Guru: Ah Sauber, a team always confined to the mid-field right? Richard: Well don't count them out just yet. Have you seen the car they have produced this year? Guru: Yes, it is one of the most beautiful that I have seen for a while, but testing has been generally disappointing. Richard: I think the team are slightly worried about the cars lack of pace, and Felipe Massa went as far as saying that he thought the car had a "fundamental design flaw" Guru: Well lets hope not. The team switched to Michelin tyres over the winter, will that benefit them? Richard: It appears so, Peter Sauber reckons they are worth and extra half second per lap, which should move them slightly towards the pace of the Williams and BAR's of this world. Guru: And what about Sauber's traditional loss of pace as the year goes on? Richard: Well last year that trend was reversed. They had no pace at the beginning of the year, but by mid season and onwards they were scoring points in near enough every race. Don't forget that they have recently opened their much hyped wind tunnel, which should really help them with development work. Guru: The driver line up on paper should be strong. Richard: Yes, but paper isn't tarmac. Jacques Villeneuve clearly lost a lot of fitness during his sabbatical year, and his three races for Renault at the end of last year didn't set the world on fire really. However if he can drive anywhere near as good as he did in 1996/97 then it will really help the team. Felipe Massa on the other hand is really energetic and should have a good future ahead of him. He actually performed the most amount of overtaking moves in 2004. Guru: Any chances of the team challenging the big four? Richard: Wait and see! They could spring a surprise.

Red Bull Richard: So the team that was once Stewart GP, that became Jaguar Racing is now facing its third different incarnation in nine years. The lack of continuity will affect the this year. Guru: But surely new owners Red Bull will bring a solid budget to the team? Richard: They have a budget of around $150 million this year, however that was pretty much the same as what Jaguar had last year, so don't expect any rapid progress this year. Guru: Not even with David Coulthard in the cockpit? Richard: Well David Coulthard is a very good race driver, yet his qualifying performances over the past two years have been poor, so he will need to improve in this area. Trouble is he doesn't know his team mate yet, although it will definitely be either Christian Klien or Vitantonio Liuzzi. Guru: Red Bull fired Tony Purnell and Dave Pitchforth over the winter, who were accredited with bringing Jaguar to a level of respectability, will that damage the team in any way? Richard: I think so, they knew what they were doing, although their replacement, Christian Horner is no amateur, having had great success with his Arden Formula 3000 team, yet F1 is a different pond altogether, so whether or not he can perform in F1 remains to be seen. Guru: How will they do in 2005? Richard: Don't expect great things to start with, but they should at least be ahead of Jordan and Minardi. Whether they can challenge teams like Toyota and Sauber remains to be seen. However a handful of points will do in this year of re-building.

Toyota Richard: Toyota have probably the largest budget in Formula One, so why they have failed to succeed is a real mystery. Guru: Indeed, but this year should be different shouldn't it? Richard: It certainly should. The Toyota TF05 is the the first car to be designed by Mike Gascoyne since he moved to the team from Renault, and the all new driver line up of Jarno Trulli and Ralf Schumacher is the strongest the team has ever had. You can't forget that the Toyota engine is one of the most powerful on the grid also. Guru: Indeed, but question marks hang over both drivers. Richard: To some extent yes, Trulli was excellent in the first half of 2004, and won the Monaco Grand Prix. Yet his performance fell away in the second half of the season, and was sacked by Renault. Ralf has somewhat lost form lately, he was good in 2003, but 2004 was dreadful, and he missed several races after breaking vertebrae in his back when he crashed at Indianapolis. Ralf in particular needs to perform this year. Guru: Will he get the opportunity to though? Richard: I don't know. Toyota have produced a radical new aero package for the Australian Grand Prix, but whether it performs or not remains to be seen, but they really have to get it right this year.

Jordan Richard: It saddens me to say that this year will be the final year for Jordan GP. They were bough out during the winter break by the Midland Group, who will rename the team, and have Dallara build the car for 2006. Guru: It is a real shame, but it's been on the cards for a while hasn't it. Richard: It has, and the performance of Jordan GP has gradually got lower every year. Eddie Jordan won't be around much in 2005, and I doubt we'll see him in the paddock again after 2005. Guru: But on the positive side, the team have secured Toyota engines, which will surely give them a bit more speed this year? Richard: Well the Toyota engines are very powerful, and if Jordan get it right this year, they could well challenge the works Toyota team, which certainly will not please the Japanese. Guru: So what about the drivers this year, I cant say I've really heard of them. Richard: Well Narain Karthikeyan is the first Indian to race in Formula One, and will undoubtedly increase viewing figures in Asia. Tiago Monteiro is from Portugal, and is the first Portuguese driver in F1 since Pedro Lamy in 1996. However both are rookies, so their speed is unknown, and the lack of experience will hurt Jordan this year. Guru: So is 2005 going to be a successful final year for Jordan or will they fall even further behind? Richard: Well the target will be to finish ninth overall again, although the team will be shaky with rookie drivers, and a new manager who is new to Formula One (Trevor Carlin), so to finish anything above last will do fine. The powerful Toyota engines will certainly help them.