Venezuela’s people deserve better than president Nicolás Maduro or reckless US-led intervention. The country is in the grip of a spiralling political, economic and humanitarian crisis. Tens of thousands have taken to the streets. As many as three million citizens – a 10th of its population – have fled. Almost 90% of those who remain live in poverty. The economy is shrinking fast, while the IMF predicts that hyperinflation could hit 10,000,000% this year. With food and medicine shortages widespread, there has been a surge in levels of malnutrition and the re-emergence of diseases such as malaria and diphtheria. The murder rate is sky-high.

Mr Maduro and his allies have overseen this collapse, yet maintained a tight grip on power. When the opposition triumphed in elections for the national assembly in 2015, he stripped the body of its powers and set up the National Constituent Assembly instead through dubious elections. Last year he won an equally dodgy presidential vote boycotted by the opposition. Opposition leaders are jailed or have fled into exile; protesters have been arbitrarily detained and tortured. While some still believe Mr Maduro continues the work of his charismatic predecessor, Hugo Chávez, even many Chavistas have turned against him. An unpopular president relies on control of the judiciary and military support.

These desperate times have united the splintered opposition, for now at least, around Juan Guaidó, the youthful and barely known figure who heads the national assembly and has just declared himself acting president. He is backed by Donald Trump, usually so enamoured of authoritarian leaders and careless of human rights, who has taken an uncharacteristic stand in a country which happens to have the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Canada and most members of the Lima group regional bloc have also recognised Mr Guaidó, reflecting the broader risks posed by Venezuela’s unravelling, and the inability to find another way forward, as well as the rightward shift in the region. The EU has been somewhat cagier.

Mr Trump’s move is risky as well as cynical. Latin America has plentiful experience of the cost of US-led interference and military “solutions” to crises. Russia, which sent two bombers to Venezuela last month in an unsubtle show of support for Mr Maduro, has warned that US actions could have “catastrophic consequences”. China, the country’s largest creditor, is standing by him; so are Turkey and Mexico.

The question is what comes next. Clearly the opposition’s aim is that the military, particularly lower down the chain of command, can be chipped away. The concomitant risk is of rival factions turning upon each other. The other issue is what happens to US diplomats if they ignore orders to leave the country. Some suspect a pretext for further action by Mr Trump, who reportedly mooted an invasion several times in 2017 and says “all options” are on the table if Mr Maduro cracks down on the opposition. Brazil’s new far right president Jair Bolsonaro has made his sympathies clear. The prospect of military intervention is terrifying, and could make the current catastrophe far worse.

It is clear that Venezuela cannot recover while Mr Maduro is in charge. Research has suggested most Venezuelans want a negotiated settlement and fresh elections. Previous attempts at talks between Venezuela’s political players failed due largely to bad faith on the government’s side. International engagement must take the form of considered action to support Venezuelans inside and outside the country, not crude and dangerous interventions.