When Deval Patrick was preparing to leave the job of Massachusetts governor five years ago, the state Democratic Party found itself in a unique bind—not through any fault of his, mind you. The local economy was in good order, and aside from an early foofaraw around his office’s use of public funds (a strong predilection for luxury vehicles and damask drapes gave rise to the nickname “Coupe Deval”), his time in office was free of the kind of self-dealing that is common in the Commonwealth.

No, the problem was that the outgoing governor was actually too popular, such that his potential successors were unable to define themselves against his success. At that year’s Democratic convention in Worcester, venerable local reporter David Bernstein wrote, Patrick’s spotlight shone “so bright that the candidates [were] indistinguishable in the glow,” giving the impression that they were mere subalterns grasping for his unwanted third term.

When Republican health care executive Charlie Baker won the race to replace Patrick that fall, it seemed both a quintessentially Massachusetts result—a phalanx of sunny GOP technocrats have prevailed in six of the state’s last eight gubernatorial elections—and a national omen. At the same moment Patrick left the stage, Barack Obama began his own departure from public life. Obama’s enduring popularity among Democrats casts a long shadow over the contest to succeed him.

Hillary Clinton’s meaningless popular vote victory left open the question of who will lead the party into the future, and Patrick believes he can provide an answer. Last week, the former governor officially joined a primary field that, tallying candidates already withdrawn as well as those still facing a grim yuletide in Des Moines, numbers nearly 30. While he might cut an Obama-like figure, though, it’s difficult to see him as the second coming of hope and change—in large part because his record as Massachusetts governor looks underwhelming in hindsight.

Any appraisal of Patrick’s chances in the primary, no matter how pessimistic, must account for the exceptional political gifts he showed in his home state. In all aspects save its governorship, Massachusetts is a partisan monoculture. Its entire U.S. House delegation has been Democratic for over 20 years; no Republican senator has been elected to a full term since 1972, with Scott Brown’s madcap Washington holiday now a distant memory. To capture the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2006, Patrick had to wage an outsider candidacy for the ages, cutting in front of every dutiful party lieutenant from Provincetown to the Berkshires.