The Independent newspaper commissioned BMG to poll the public on whether they feel the country will fare better or worse economically after Brexit.

Two questions were asked to the public:

“In your view, as the UK leaves the EU, do you think the UK will be more prosperous or less prosperous in the short term ?” “In your view, as the UK leaves the EU, do you think the UK will be more prosperous or less prosperous in the long term ?”

These questions were shown to all respondents and displayed in a random order to each in order to eliminate potential for question-order effects.

Results for Short Term Prosperity

The results show that the public are most likely to say that the UK will be less prosperous in the short term as we leave the EU, with 44% saying so, compared to 23% saying that the UK will be more prosperous.

Interestingly, there appears to be an association between the household income of respondents, and how they feel the country will fare economically. For instance, a majority (52%) of those from households who earn £60,000 or more per year, say that they think the UK will be less prosperous in the short term, with just 22% saying that they feel the UK will be more prosperous (21% no difference and 5% DK). This contrasts with those on the lowest incomes, with just 37% of those on less than £20,000 household income saying that the UK will be worse-off in the short term, and 28% saying the UK will be more prosperous (24% no difference and 12% DK).

Readers can interact with the data themselves by using the chart below.

…and in the Long Term

The results for public perception in the long-term paint a slightly different picture however. Four in ten (39%) adults living in Briton say that they feel the UK will be more prosperous in the long-term, compared with 32% who say the UK will be less prosperous (19% say no difference, and 10% DK).

Unsurprisingly, Remain voters are some of the least likely to say that the UK will fare better post-Brexit in the short term. Just 9% of Remainers say the UK will be more prosperous and 69% say less prosperous (18% no difference, 4% DK) in the short term. However, there is a small but noticeable shift when they are asked about the long term with 14% saying more prosperous and 59% saying less prosperous (19% no difference, 8% DK).

The main driver of change in opinion on how prosperous the UK will be post-Brexit actually comes from those who voted to Leave. There is a large 24% increase in the proportion of Leave voters saying that the UK will be more prosperous post-Brexit in the long term, when compared to their response on short term prosperity (42%).

Again, readers can interact with the data themselves by using the chart below.

Top-line EU Referendum Tracker UPDATE

The Independent also reported updated figures for BMG’s EU Referendum tracker; reporting top-line figures of 53% for Remain, and 47% for Leave if a referendum were held today. The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum. Nearly all the top-line change since 2016 has come from those who did not vote at the referendum (73% Remain, 27% Leave). A full breakdown of these results can be found in the attachment below.

An article based on results discussed in this post can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

Michael Turner – Research Director & Head of Polling

Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive – Polling