If the political circus and the troubling possibility of who might emerge as president has investors fearing for the future of the country, you wouldn’t know it from the action in the stock market.

The blue chips are riding a six-session win streak — the longest since way back in October — and both the S&P 500 SPX, -1.11% and the Dow industrials DJIA, -0.87% are in positive territory for the year.

Still, it feels like another one of those unloved, and untrusted, stretches of buying.

Yes, to many, this upswing smacks of a bear-market rally — an unsustainable blip in a broader move lower. Urban Carmel of the Fat Pitch blog is not in that group. While he believes a retracement is likely in the short term, he thinks further gains lie ahead and “a return to the February low is unlikely.”

He makes some good points, too. There are all sorts of factors pointing to a solid bull market, he says, including price momentum, breadth, a bounce in small caps. Perhaps most important, there’s plenty of cash on the sidelines waiting to jump in and carry markets higher from here, he says.

And — at least for the short term — there’s another key factor at play.

“The rally in equities is, for now, contingent on oil continuing to move higher,” Carmel said. “Should the rally in oil fail, it is very likely equities will sell off.”

He used this chart to show the correlation between oil and stocks:

Fat Pitch

For now, attention this holiday-shortened week turns to some key economic data points, a smattering of notable earnings and another Apple product lovefest.

Key market gauges

That slight pullback Carmel was talking about looked to be shaping up earlier, but lately we’ve gone green. Futures on the Dow US:YMM6 and the S&P US:ESM6 are pointing slightly higher. Crude CLM26, turned higher, but gold is dropping. Asia markets ADOW, +0.33% jumped into the new week, while Europe SXXP, -0.66% is moving up.

The buzz

Sherwin-Williams SHW, -2.39% announced Sunday that it will acquire Valspar VAL, +5.55% for $11.3 billion, or $113 a share. Shares jumped 25% in premarket.

Fans will get another opportunity to fawn over their precious company at 10 a.m. Pacific, or 1 p.m. Eastern, when Apple AAPL, -3.17% holds a “let us loop you in” media event that’s expected to showcase a 4-inch phone, a new iPad and updates to Apple Watch.

President Obama arrived in Havana on Sunday amid hopes that the U.S. and Cuba will finally be ushering in a new era of friendlier relations after enduring decades of hostilities. He’s the first U.S. president to visit the country in almost 90 years.

Happy 10th birthday, Twitter TWTR, +2.03% . Sorry about your stock:

The call

J.P. Morgan quant Marko Kolanovic has earned a reputation lately for making some timely calls, notably last summer when he called the market unwind that led to a 1,000- drop on the Dow. He hasn’t warmed up much on stocks since then. In fact, he told CNBC that buying gold will provide a better return.

“Although risk slightly may be on the upside rather than on downside, I would say fundamentally ... you [potentially] have 5% upside and 10% downside, so it doesn’t look that great,” he said, adding that a dovish outlook from the Fed should be supportive of gold.

The quote

“We need somebody to relentlessly, relentlessly attack Hillary. It’s the only way we’re going to win. Getting above the fray and not getting in the dirt and ‘we’re better than that’ doesn’t work anymore. The democrats and liberals attack viciously.” — “Charles in Charge” star, actor Scott Baio, explaining his endorsement of Donald Trump in a Fox News interview that was trending over the weekend.

The chart

Goldman Sachs GS, +0.01% earlier this year filed for a new ETF tracking the 50 companies that matter most to hedge funds. These include recent dogs like Valeant US:VRX and Bank of America BAC, -0.55% . The bank calls it the Hedge Fund VIP ETF. No ticker symbol yet, but the Zero Hedge blog had a few ideas: How about “LOSE” or “MUPT,” for instance?

Considering how these stocks have fared of late, those tickers fit rather nicely. Just check out this performance chart. Not exactly what you’d expect in a market that’s showing some signs of life.

Smart money?

For a little added perspective, this is how the stocks that aren’t loved by hedge funds have been performing. Read: Hedge fund exposure has been bad news for stocks.

The economy

There’s plenty of data to parse through this week — some of it meaningful, including the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP at the end of the week. As for today, we’ll get the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by existing home sales for February 90 minutes later. Read:Is Janet Yellen blind to rebound in inflation?

The stat

$250 million — That’s at least how much presidential candidate Donald Trump owes to the banks, most of which are of the smaller variety.

Random reads

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Two Chinese poachers kill 226 elephants. Go to jail.

There IS a limit to how much you can return on Amazon AMZN, -1.78% .

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