Property assessments offer a snapshot of real estate markets, as of July 1 of the previous year, to homeowners not otherwise in the market.

Many British Columbians have likely jumped on to the new New Year’s Day tradition of looking up their 2019 property assessments, which likely show them declines on detached homes in pricier Vancouver neighbourhoods and increases in Metro Vancouver suburbs.

The B.C. Assessment Authority starts sending physical assessment notices out to property owners by mail this week, but the lookup feature on the agency’s website went live Dec. 31, allowing impatient owners to get ahead of Canada Post.

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So, while B.C. Assessment won’t release detailed analysis until later on January 2, the curious can check and see that the 2019 assessment on Lululemon founder Chip Wilson’s Point Grey Road mansion, last year the province’s most expensive, slid seven per cent to $73.1 million.

And last year’s top five most valuable property assessments collectively sank by an average of seven per cent, mitigated slightly by an increase in the estimated value of the privately owned James Island in the Gulf Islands.

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That is one view of a changing property market in 2018 that saw demand for high-end properties, which are subject to new taxes, fairly freeze while the competition for condominiums and suburban homes heated up by comparison.

“Assessments just follow the market,” said economist Tsur Somerville, and “what we know is the market has dried up more at the high end than the low end, and that would then be reflected in larger price declines there.”

The bigger issue, said Somerville, a senior fellow in the University of B.C.’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate, is that assessments on condominiums and townhouses are likely to be up a lot, while assessments on detached homes “should be flat or down.”

That could shift more of the property-tax base of municipalities onto condos and townhouses, Somerville said, “and that should be true throughout the Lower Mainland.”

However, property appraiser Paul Sullivan argues there is a political story in the additional taxes the NDP government has applied to expensive homes, such as the school tax surcharge on homes assessed over $3 million.

That is where sales and prices have declined the most, though those are the least attainable homes, Sullivan said, while prices at the lower end of the market have continued to climb.

Sullivan said it doesn’t really matter if a $10 million house is now worth $9 million, but it does matter if an $800,000 condo is now worth $900,000.

“Thanks for your help NDP,” Sullivan said. “You’ve really assisted the affordable housing problem by taxing the hell out of everybody.”

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Sullivan estimates that the decline in assessments for high-end homes will have wiped out more than $10 billion worth of homeowners’ equity in Vancouver alone.

However, Somerville said the declining inflows of foreign capital into Metro Vancouver’s high end property might be having a bigger influence on prices.

Property assessments are effectively an appraisal of property values calculated by B.C. as of July 1 each year, which are used by municipalities to adjust property-tax rates, but they also offer a past-dated snapshot of property markets.

In Vancouver, unit 308 at 1950 Robson Street, a two-bedroom apartment, saw its 2019 assessment rise five per cent to $766,000 from $727,000. It is now listed for sale on the realtors’ Multiple Listing Service for $785,000

By contrast, a house now listed for sale for $1.249 million at 749 East 29th Ave, for example, was valued at $1.342 million on its 2019 assessment, a three per cent decrease from its 2018 assessment of $1.387 million.

On Vancouver’s west side, a house listed for sale for $2.76 million was valued at $2.358 million on its 2019 assessment, a 13-per-cent drop from its 2018 assessment of $2.698 million.

A house listed for almost $1.1 million at 1276 Nestor St. in Coquitlam, saw its 2019 assessment rise four per cent from $997,000 in 2018.

And 404-630 Como Lake Avenue in Coquitlam, a two-bedroom top-floor condo in that municipality’s Burquitlam neighbourhood listed for sale at $589,000, saw its 2019 assessment climb 20 per cent to $575,000 from $480,000 in 2018.