UPDATE: Dorian projected to become a major hurricane as it churns toward Florida

Florida is scrambling to prepare for the first direct strike of the year as the latest projections showed Hurricane Dorian could slam into the east coast on Monday as a Category 3 storm ― and the Tampa Bay region remained firmly in its path.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Wednesday as the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts showed Dorian increasing in strength and intensity as its path toward Florida this weekend grew more certain.

Dorian has been growing in strength daily since it became a tropical storm this past weekend. But for the the next three days it it has nothing but the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean between it and the Florida coastline. Forecasters believe that could allow Dorian to quickly strengthen from a Category 1 to a Category 3 hurricane.

Hurricane #Dorian is now moving north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, where conditions will improve tonight. The hurricane will continue NW through Thursday night before turning WNW on Friday. pic.twitter.com/9Ti0CR3tbw — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 28, 2019

Dorian’s wind speeds have been consistently recorded at over 80 mph. But in their Wednesday 5 p.m. bulletin, the hurricane center’s forecasters classified it as a “dangerous hurricane" that is getting more so. A Category 3 storm has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph and threatens to destroy trees, damage roofs and cause massive power outages.

Across the state, warning bells started sounding as emergency officials warned Floridians to start getting ready, assembling supplies and putting together an action plan ― if they didn’t already have one ready to go.

“Yesterday would have been better," Pinellas County spokeswoman Ashley J. Johnson said. “But today is the time to get prepared.”

The weather service says the storm is traveling northwest at nearly 13 mph, a speed forecasters say will continue for the next day or two, placing Florida within its projected five-day path.

“Today, I am declaring a state of emergency to ensure Florida is fully prepared for Hurricane Dorian,” DeSantis said in a statement issued Wednesday. “It’s important for Floridians on the East Coast to monitor this storm closely. Every Florida resident should have seven days of supplies, including food, water and medicine, and should have a plan in case of disaster."

Puerto Rico avoided a direct hit from Dorian and the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning were all lifted Wednesday night as the storm churned east past the island. Still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Maria two years ago, the island’s eastern coast is subject to flooding and landslides. The hurricane warning for the U.S. and British Virgin islands was also lifted.

Emergency officials warned Floridians that they can no longer wait to prepare.

“All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of the United States,” forecasters from the hurricane center said. “Now is the time to begin thinking about what kinds of preparations you might need to make over the next couple of days."

By avoiding the mountains of Puerto Rico, there was no wind sheer to power down Dorian, nothing to break up the storm. Forecasters project Dorian will quickly grow in size and strength as it approaches Florida. But those islands will still feel the storm’s effects.

The latest predictions call for Dorian to have maximum sustained winds of at least 115 mph by the weekend, with tropical-storm-force winds reaching parts of Florida as early as Saturday.

The hurricane center’s 5 p.m. projection cone showed Brevard and Volusia Counties are currently the most likely to suffer a direct hit from Dorian on Monday morning, before it then travels across the state just north of Tampa Bay. Parts of Florida could expect 4 to 8 inches of rain, and up to 10 inches in isolated areas later this week and into early next week.

Despite predictions, forecasters highlighted how hard it is to predict a powerful storm’s behavior, especially over 48 hours in advance.

“The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur,” the hurricane center said. “Residents in these areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian’s center.”

Dorian was the fourth tropical storm of this season and is now the second hurricane of the Atlantic storm season.

Meanwhile, a fifth tropical storm, Erin, has formed in the Atlantic. Located about 470 miles west-northwest of Bermuda and 190 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. as of 11 a.m., it is not expected to be a threat to the United States but is expected to track near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later this week.

2019 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

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