Contrary to speculation by poll pundits, the Lok Sabha election saw a stronger Narendra Modi wave than what was seen in 2014. This has brought a warning for the Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal, the Delhi chief minister.

Arvind Kejriwal's party has failed to take lead in any of 70 assembly segments in Delhi, where the BJP won all seven Lok Sabha seats. The AAP had won 67 assembly seats in 2015 Delhi assembly election.

Worried over latest election trend, Arvind Kejriwal shot off a WhatsApp message to all party MLAs exhorting them to pull up their socks for the assembly election in Delhi due in 2020. Kejriwal's message is clear that the Aam Aadmi Party MLAs "will have to hold small public meetings and tell voters that they have made mistakes and they will make up for them in Assembly polls."

This comes on the back of a decision that the AAP leadership made in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls when it took a leaf out of BJP's election strategy and appointed 10 vijay pramukh (victory chiefs) in each polling booth. The BJP has panna pramukh (party worker in-charge of one page of voters' list).

Arvind Kejriwal's deputy, both in the party and the government, Manish Sisodia was also quoted in various news reports that "Team Kejriwal will contest 2020 Delhi election and not individual MLAs or candidates."

Why AAP is in panic?

The AAP entered politics in 2013 riding on Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement. It secured 28 seats, finishing second after the BJP, which refused to stake claim to form a minority government in Delhi.

The AAP formed government with the outside support of the Congress, which eight MLAs in the 70-member assembly. Arvind Kejriwal became the chief minister but the government did not last beyond 49 days and resigned on the issue of Lokpal Bill that could not be passed in Delhi assembly.

The Delhi polls were delayed and the 2014 Lok Sabha election was held in between. The BJP won all seven Lok Sabha seats with the AAP coming second in all parliamentary constituencies of Delhi pushing the Congress to the third place.

The average vote share of the AAP in Delhi was 32.90 per cent in 2014 despite a strong Modi wave. When the assembly polls were held in 2015, AAP won 67 seats with a strike rate of over 95 per cent. The BJP won the other three seats with the Congress drawing a naught.

The AAP has been on a downward slope since then. In 2017 municipal polls, the AAP's vote share reduced by more than half from 54.3 per cent in 2015 to 26 per cent.

Now in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the AAP polled only 18.1 per cent of the total votes cast in Delhi. Overall, it finished third behind the Congress, which got 22.5 per cent votes.

Bigger worries for Team Kejriwal

The BJP got more than 50 per cent votes in all seven Lok Sabha constituencies in Delhi with the highest of 60.49 in North West Delhi. The Congress's highest vote share was 29.67 per cent, recorded in Chandni Chowk. The AAP's highest vote share was 26.35 per cent in South Delhi.

More worrying aspect of the Lok Sabha polls for Team Kejriwal is that the AAP could not take a lead in any of 70 assembly constituencies. The BJP was the leading party in 65 assembly segments, while the Congress in other five.

While the Congress has shown signs of revival in Delhi coming second in five Lok Sabha constituencies, the AAP was the runner up in just two - from all seven in 2014. The Congress had finished third on all Lok Sabha seats five years ago.

Moreover, while the AAP has lost its support base in jhuggis and unauthorised colonies like Sangam Vihar or Ambedkar Nagar, which overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress has strengthened itself in Muslim-dominated regions.

There are seven assembly segments where Muslim voters decide who wins these seats. Of them, the Congress was leading in Chandni Chowk, Ballimaran, Matia Mahal, Seelampur and Okhla. In the remaining two, Babarpur and Mustafabad, the BJP was in the lead.

Arvind Kejriwal had, incidentally, complained during the Lok Sabha election that the Muslims tactically shifted their allegiance "overnight" from the AAP to the Congress. This leaves, the AAP in a serious trouble in the final year of Kejriwal government's tenure. The Lok Sabha election is a wake-up call for Team Kejriwal and the AAP.

Also Read | Congress worker loses bet to BJP worker, shaves off head after election loss

Also Watch | Battle for Delhi: Split in Opposition to help BJP?