Is the government able to turn the tide?

During the last weeks the eastern part of Ukraine descended into a state of low intensity warfare. Countering this kind of violence is a typical task for Police forces. One of its important roles is to separate the insurgents from the population by enforcing the laws of the state. But the Ukrainian police proved unreliable in their support of the Kiev government. To make matters worse, supporting institutions like regional and national prosecutors and the prison system are failing as well. These failures are undermining the countermeasures against the pro-Russian insurgents. Until recently the government relied on domestic military actions, but they are increasingly damaging its credibility. Performing policing duties and the limited use of violence are in principle unnatural for a regular army. To deal with this asymmetry, the Ukrainian government resurrected the Ukrainian National Guard after the loyalty of the Interior Troops proved to be questionable.

The crumbling Ukrainian Police.

Interim president Oleksandr Turchynov stated the following when he commented on army and police forces in the east during a meeting of regional governors in Kiev on April 29:

“Inactivity, helplessness and even criminal betrayal” plague the security forces (…) “It is hard to accept but it’s the truth. The majority of law enforcers in the east are incapable of performing their duties.”

After the massacre in Odessa, the police in the south is also discredited by the temporary government in Kiev. For a government trying to get a grip on a chaotic situation, that is a disastrous development. Police forces are essential to ease tensions and de-escalate civil unrest growing towards insurgency. During an insurgency, they are the most important tool for a state. They serve as proof of its functioning or for that matter: its failure. Stanislav Rechynsky, aide to Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, commented on April 29 on the situation in Luhansk:

“The regional leadership does not control its police force. The local police did nothing.”

The Ukrainian Army and National Guard.

The Ukrainian Army is struggling to regain control in Eastern Ukraine. The first soldiers who were send east, were hopelessly confused when confronted by civilian protesters. The soldiers of the now disbanded 25th Airborne Brigade didn’t follow orders and by the look of their (in)actions, didn’t know what to do. Essentially they were trained to fight a military opponent and refused to shoot civilians. The Airborne soldiers lost part of their equipment, that was subsequently paraded by the separatists. During the last days the Ukrainian Army is fighting for buildings and checkpoints, while a mix of domestic protesters, agent provocateurs and armed men are controlling all spaces in between. The Army might be able to retake a few static positions from separatists, but how to “retake” the people after the conquest of a disputed area?

The Ukrainian Army has limited recent experience in low intensity warfare. The Army is, until now, not confronted with massive tank formations, but with a Russian sponsored insurgency that is at least partially supported by the East Ukrainian population. To suppress that kind of adversary, Ukraine needs well trained and loyal hybrid military-police forces. The Interior Troops of Ukraine is such a military police force, but their loyalty is disputed because of their heavy involvement in defending Janukovich during the Maidan street battles. On March 13th the temporary government reinstated the Ukrainian National Guard to fill the gap. According to the president, speaking on May 5th, seven battalions are ready and will form the backbone of the operation:

“As of now the National Guard is the core of the anti-terrorist operation. The National Guard has established itself” (…) “I believe the police will be reinforced, primarily, with the patriots who have proven their ability to protect their country”

In theory they are the most suited force to fight insurgents.Their use could create symmetry in the struggle against the insurgents. In an ideal scenario the Army’s role is limited to protecting the borders against an invasion and act as a blocking force for domestic operations. Within that guarded ring of security, operations should be carried out by these military police forces. But since those units are in short supply or have a questionable loyalty, the Ukrainian Army might be forced to conduct policing duties with a real risk of more failures and the use of excessive violence. That would cause a loss in trust by the local population and strengthen the insurgency.

The importance of maintaining the rule of law.

The units that are confronting the insurgents have to use violence when threatened, but very limited and controlled. After all, the insurgents are formally Ukrainian civilians. They should be treated as civilians with the same rights as any other Ukrainian civilian. Why not try to arrest them, instead of killing them right away as if you were on a battlefield fighting a regular war? It is definitely not a regular war, so other methods must be used to prevent further escalation. Verification of their citizenship and a fair legal procedure can reveal them as rebellious Ukrainian civilians or foreign intruders. Then the Ukrainian government would positively show itself as an advocate of the rule of law. Any foreign involvement can be proven and publicly shamed in court.

Ideally regular police forces operating in small numbers, would normalize the situation after military-police units have suppressed the most urging threats. Their presence and actions in service of the state restore a sense of peace and normalcy. By doing so they empower the central and regional governments. Trustworthy regular police forces, acting in the interest of the people, are excellent sources of information to counter new subversive elements that try to undermine the state. That intelligence is to be used by the military-police units or special forces, to prevent undermining the regular police’s relation with the public.

Weak but vital institutions.

The Ukrainian police forces and the main civilian institutions appear to be in the process of disintegration in the contested areas. Even more than the poor performance of the Ukrainian Army, caused by a forced and unnatural role, this creates an increasingly dangerous situation. Unfortunately the spiral downwards continues: two days ago in Odessa pro-Russian protesters freed prisoners after weak opposition of the local police force. A reliable police force and a decent prison system are two of the three pillars under the rule of law. In Ukraine those two institutions are weakened, damaged or have disintegrated.

The third pillar of the rule of law is the judicial system. On 22 February 2014 Oleh Makhnitskyi was installed as prosecutor general. He was an MP for Svoboda, a nationalist, extreme right party that had active involvement in the Maidan protests. It is questionable whether he is seen as an independent figure by both sides in this increasingly escalating conflict. For a national reconciliation he seems not to be the right person. The government in Kiev has an urgent task at hand in directing and controlling these three essential institutions as proper national institutions, providing law and order for all of Ukraine.

Developments towards civil war.

The temporary government reintroduced the draft for all able bodied males from 18 years old and no older than 25. Valeriy Bolotov, the Luhansk pro-Russian separatist leader, called for a state of emergency. He asked all young men to join his movement, swear an oath of allegiance and take up arms or leave the area. He announced a march on Kiev. Both sides increasingly take steps towards civil war as they both are trying to control the contested areas. The prospect of conflict resolution is rapidly disappearing. Almost all the ingredients are here for a prolonged struggle, a war amongst the people. As this situation is developing, the Russian Army does not even have to invade to endanger the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Russia’s irregular operators, its supporters and a weak government with a crumbling police force are very fast destroying the nation from the inside out. Whether the measures to reinforce the police are enough, remains to be seen.