Tuesday’s Democratic contests in Kentucky and Oregon award delegates proportionally, so it is hard for Bernie Sanders to make a significant dent in Clinton’s delegate lead (unless he posts a massive victory in either state). Both campaigns see Oregon going for Sanders, but in recent days the campaigning has been fierce in Kentucky, where Clinton aides now think she could pull off a win.

As with many things in politics, there is perception, and then there is the reality. The reality is that by every logical mathematical model, former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee.


And on one level, she should have an advantage there. Former president Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and 1996, and Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in Kentucky in the 2008 presidential primary. What’s more, Kentucky Democrats tend to be a more moderate than their liberal friends in, say, Oregon. Also, Kentucky has a “closed” primary, meaning that only registered Democrats are allowed to participate and not independent voters. Closed primary contests have favored Clinton throughout the primary.

But Sanders has a lot going for him. In two neighboring states -- West Virginia and Indiana -- Sanders recently crushed Clinton. Clinton is on the defensive over remarks she has made about the coal industry, a big deal in Eastern Kentucky. And, in an odd twist, Kentucky might be the one place where Sanders’ record on guns, which has been perceived as too supportive of the Second Amendment for the overall Democratic primary base, could be a plus in a rural state where guns are part of the culture.

Kentucky’s population is also heavily white -- a demographic make-up that has benefitted Sanders in other state primaries. In some larger cities like Louisville, African-Americans make up about 20 percent of the Democratic primary, but that is about it for the state.


Then there is the fact that Sanders has been running television ads. Clinton just made a major last-minute push in the Bluegrass State.

A win in Kentucky would be bolster the arguments for either campaign. Clinton wants to continue the line that she is going to win the nomination, and there is nothing left to see in the Democratic contest.

A victory for Sanders will continue his string of wins as the race closes out. And as some Democrats suggest Sanders should drop out of the race, he could point to a Kentucky win and ask why.

James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his daily e-mail update on the 2016 campaign at bostonglobe.com/groundgame.