2006: Chasing Tony

Stewart, Biffle, Gordon unanimous top-10 driver prediction picks

In the two years since NASCAR went to its 10-driver, 10-race playoff format, seven drivers have made both Chases for the Nextel Cup. If NASCAR.COM's top-10 (or more) driver predictions is any indication, that number could fall to one after the 26th race at Richmond:

Jarrod Breeze

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 To play, click here Give the right side of your brain the day off as you juggle a field of NASCAR drivers while staying under a salary cap. For Reese's, it's all about the Cup. Pick the best drivers from each group and walk away with the top prize. Build your point total week after week! Earn great prizes! Are you ready to make the hard choices? Streak to the Finish challenges you to guess a top-10 driver in next week's NASCAR race. Who do you want to make a superstar? The Superstar Fantasy Cap Challenge gives you that power. Just don't use the same driver twice this year. Play the Ultimate Fantasy League. Draft, trade, add, and drop drivers throughout the season. Dominate your opponents with the best team of drivers you can assemble.

10. Elliott Sadler: New crew chief Tommy Baldwin Jr. will make a difference.

9. Jamie McMurray: Thank you, Kurt Busch.

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior is at a crossroads, and he's determined to show he's more than just a name.

7. Mark Martin: Just too good of a driver in too good of a car.

6. Kyle Busch: Youngest Cup winner will continue his ascent in '06.

5. Tony Stewart: No way can he duplicate last year's success.

4. Matt Kenseth: Will begin where he left off in '05.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Hendrick's No. 2 man will be just that.

2. Jeff Gordon: Four-time champ looking for redemption and has a full season with Steve Letarte.

1. Greg Biffle: Chase or no Chase winning the Cup is still about consistency. And Biffle is a good as it gets.

Plus, Biffle can win a race now and then, leading the series in '05 with six victories. After winning the second race of the year at Fontana, Biffle never dropped further than sixth in the standings. He is the only driver to win titles in the Busch and Craftsman Truck series, and he'll complete the trifecta in '06.

Dave Rodman

10. Kurt Busch: Busch carries a load of expectations at Penske, so if he and new crew chief Roy McCauley can handle the Dodge, at least a 10th-place tie is a lock.

10. Elliott Sadler: One year out of the Chase made Sadler understand how much he desperately needs to make it back into the Chase, and what he and new crew chief Tommy Baldwin will need to do to make it happen.

9. Jeremy Mayfield: Mayfield came out of the box paired with engineer Chris Andrews by finishing in the top 10 at Homestead and as one of seven drivers who's made both previous Chases, he knows the path to the front.

8. Carl Edwards: Edwards, who without question qualifies as the sport's overall phenomenon of the last year, could as easily finish in the top three, but he'll have to continue to balance competing in two full series.

7. Matt Kenseth: Placing Kenseth here after a spectacular second-half run he, crew chief Robbie Reiser and their team made to get into the 2005 Chase proves just how tough making the top 10 is, but expect more of the same in 2006.

6. Ryan Newman: Newman obviously has lost none of the sheer speed he's displayed throughout his career, but again in 2006 the biggest potential drawback to him contending is uncertainty about Dodge's overall competitiveness.

5. Jeff Gordon: For Gordon to go from missing the Chase in 2005 to getting back into the top five will be a statement of the four-time champ's commitment and ability, as well as crew chief Steve Letarte's potential.

4. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson will win a championship, and it won't be an upset when he does; but so far he and redoubtable crew chief Chad Knaus have been unable to evade one fatal flaw in each otherwise exemplary seasons.

3. Greg Biffle: If anyone will upset Stewart's streak, Biffle is the one most likely to do it, with his championship pedigree in Busch and Craftsman Truck tempered by each additional season of Cup experience.

2. Mark Martin: It's impossible to bet against the evergreen Martin, who as he gets closer to closing one chapter in a marvelous career continues to maintain a high performance and enthusiasm level.

1. Tony Stewart: Barring any unforeseen circumstances or calamities -- or someone stepping up and ripping the champion's crown out of his grasp.

Stewart has begun to display the diversity, temperament and outright ability to perform at a level that makes him a threat not only to Cale Yarborough's mark of three consecutive championships; but more than anyone else, the most distinct threat to Petty's and Earnhardt's marks of seven Cup titles.

Ryan Smithson

10. Jamie McMurray: He loved working with Donnie Wingo. Jimmy Fennig is just as old-school.

10. Elliott Sadler: Expect a one-win, 10 top-five season with very few DNFs. He'll strain to make the Chase, but he'll make it.

9. Jimmie Johnson: This is a crucial year for him and Chad Knaus. Homestead still hurts.

8. Kurt Busch: If you wanted to see him slip at Penske, forget it. Kurt Busch is an expert at providing feedback, and he's one of the few drivers who can win at any track.

7. Matt Kenseth: Team won't have any distractions this year and will finally catch some breaks. Expect his confidence to be sky-high at the short tracks. Potential wild-card is the loss of longtime car chief Jeff Vandermoss.

6. Ryan Newman: Did you know that Ryan Newman had just as many lead-lap finishes in 2005 as anyone? Newman will also benefit from the move away from the impound races that hurt him so badly last year.

5. Mark Martin: He's got more experience than anyone and should win at least twice in 2006. He seems to be the only driver born in the 1950s that has success with shorter spoilers.

4. Carl Edwards: Just imagine how tough he is going to be when he actually learns how to drive on short tracks and road courses. He is Greg Biffle Jr.

3. Jeff Gordon: He will never again experience the kind of slump that dogged him last summer.

2. Greg Biffle: Underrated restrictor-plate driver. Like Edwards, needs to get better at Martinsville and the road courses to really scare Stewart.

1. Tony Stewart: His team has no weaknesses, although like Kenseth, it'll be interesting to see how his team deals with a new car chief.

Stewart is in the prime of his career, and Stewart's self-confidence is matched only by the confidence of his men on pit road. That's a devastating combination. Remember: Gibbs already has won three titles this decade.

Mark Aumann

10. Ryan Newman: If they gave points for poles, he'd be a shoo-in. However, his average finish in 2005 was nine positions lower than his average start.

9. Matt Kenseth: There's nothing wrong with being consistent, as long as it's consistently running in the top 10.

8. Jamie McMurray: If anything, the change of scenery has to help. But you can't make the Chase starting 20th or worse every week.

7. Kyle Busch: Two victories in the last 11 races were tempered by finishes of 39th, 40th and 41st during that same stretch.

6. Kurt Busch: As long as he doesn't allow the boos -- or booze -- to affect him, his and his team's track record are championship caliber.

5. Greg Biffle: 48th in 2002, 20th in 2003, 17th in 2004 and second last year. Only one more position to go.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: After leading more than 1,000 laps in each of his last three seasons, Junior led 169 in 2005. The family reunion is sure to remedy that situation.

3. Tony Stewart: He finished seventh the year after his last championship. The odds just don't favor a repeat champ, especially in the Chase format

2. Jeff Gordon: The last time he had this lousy a season, he came back, won six races and the championship in 2001.

1. Carl Edwards: I know, I know. Almost everybody else has him as the fashionable pick to disappoint, let alone win the championship.

But I keep looking for that flaw in his game and still haven't found it. Superspeedways? He finished fifth at Talladega. Short tracks? He did struggle at Bristol and Martinsville, but was ninth at Dover and sixth at Phoenix. Flat tracks? He won at Pocono. Road courses? His 19th at Watkins Glen was better than Newman, Biffle and Kurt Busch. And he absolutely knocks 'em dead on the intermediates. His personality and driving style remind me an awful lot of another Missouri driver who did pretty well on the Cup circuit.

Josh Pate

10. Elliott Sadler: Two words -- Tommy Baldwin.

9. Jimmie Johnson: No more top-five finishes in the points, as the Hendrick balance shifts back to normal this year.

8. Jamie McMurray: His new Roush ride made the Chase both years and won the 2004 title, giving McMurray the equipment to back up his talent.

7. Ryan Newman: Since running full time, Newman has finished sixth or seventh in the points each year.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Yes, last year was an exception.

5. Mark Martin: He's too consistent to miss the Chase, and his average finish in Chase races the past two years is 10.9 with nine top-fives.

4. Jeff Gordon: See Earnhardt Jr., Dale.

3. Greg Biffle: He'll be the first driver to win championships in all three series, just not this year.

Inside the Numbers Final Chase results

2005 No. Driver Behind 1. Tony Stewart -- 2. Greg Biffle -35 3. Carl Edwards -35 4. Mark Martin -105 5. Jimmie Johnson -127 6. Ryan Newman -174 7. Matt Kenseth -181 8. Rusty Wallace -393 9. Jeremy Mayfield -460 10. Kurt Busch -559 2004 No. Driver Behind 1. Kurt Busch -- 2. Jimmie Johnson -8 3. Jeff Gordon -16 4. Mark Martin -107 5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -138 6. Tony Stewart -180 7. Ryan Newman -326 8. Matt Kenseth -437 9. Elliott Sadler -482 10. Jeremy Mayfield -506

2. Tony Stewart: He's this decade's Jeff Gordon, but the days of repeating as champion (1997-1998) are long gone.

1. Carl Edwards: The last driver to win the championship in his second full season was Dale Earnhardt (1980).

Is Edwards the new Earnhardt? No. But last year, Edwards took the No. 99 car that was winless in 99 consecutive races and had no guarantee of full-season sponsorship and drove it to four victories and within 35 points of winning the title. It was the best finish by a first-year driver since James Hylton was second in 1966, although Hylton still lost the title by 1,950 points (different points system). Last year, Edwards and Tony Stewart tied for scoring the most points during the Chase with 1,483. The anchor holding him down is short tracks. Edwards averaged a 26th-place finish in six short-track races last season and was 26th in the Martinsville Chase race. If he can improve upon that, crown him the king.

Mark Spoor

10. Elliott Sadler: The addition of Tommy Baldwin appears to have helped Sadler's mental outlook -- and we know he can drive.

9. Jamie McMurray: Top-notch equipment and Jimmy Fennig in his ear will put McMurray over the hump.

8. Matt Kenseth: The 2006 season will be another day at the office for the scarily consistent No. 17 team.

7. Ryan Newman: Newman will continue to have trouble converting Friday speed to Sunday victories, but he'll get his share.

6. Carl Edwards: Fans can expect a few more backflips by season's end.

5. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson will continue to further his reputation as this generation's Mark Martin

4. Mark Martin: Martin will continue to further his reputation as last generation's Mark Martin.

3. Tony Stewart: He'll climb a couple more fences, but a late-season wreck will take him out of the title picture.

2. Jeff Gordon: The Drive for Five stays alive through the final laps at Homestead.

1. Greg Biffle: Quite simply, it's Biffle's time.

Had it not been for a loose right-rear wheel at Texas in early November, Biffle may have been entering this season as the defending champ. Consider that Biffle failed to record a top-10 finish at either a road-course or restrictor-plate track last season and still came within 35 points of the title. If Biffle can improve even slightly in those two areas, he'll hoist the Cup in November.

Marty Smith

10. Casey Mears: I just have a feeling ... then again, I had a feeling about Jeff Burton last year.

9. Kurt Busch: Has a point to prove. Several, in fact.

8. Elliott Sadler: 38 team maintains consistency this time around.

7. Kyle Busch: Undeniable talent behind the wheel, and has team to back it up.

6. Jimmie Johnson: Transition year still results in Chase run.

5. Mark Martin: Retires in style will another run at the title.

4. Greg Biffle: Fast, again. In contention, again. Falls just short. Again.

3. Jeff Gordon: He's back.

2. Carl Edwards: They know something you don't know ...

1. Tony Stewart: I am officially driving the bandwagon. Hop on.

Stewart will become NASCAR's first back-to-back champ since Gordon in 1997-98. The departure of car chief Scott Diehl hurts -- he was an integral figure in both title runs -- but Jason Shapiro will fill in admirably.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writers.