Incarceration rates have risen 130% since 1985, according to new research by Labor MP and economist Andrew Leigh

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Indigenous Australians are now more likely to be in prison than African-Americans, according to new research by Labor parliamentarian and economist Andrew Leigh warning that Australia has entered “a second convict age”.

Leigh’s new working paper finds that in 2018, around 43,000 Australians were in prison, a rate of 221 for every 100,000 adults – which he says is a significant jump since incarceration rates began climbing in 1985.

Analysing statistics since the mid-1980s, Leigh says by 1990, the imprisonment rate was 114 prisoners per 100,000 adults; by 2000, it was 152 prisoners per 100,000 adults; by 2010, it was 175 per 100,000 adults; and by 2018 it was 221 per 100,000.

“In proportionate terms, the rise in incarceration rates from 1985 to 2018 amounts to a 130% increase,” the working paper says. “Not since 1899 has Australia incarcerated such a large share of the adult population.”

For Indigenous Australians, the incarceration trends are even more worrying. The research shows that over the past three decades, the share of Indigenous adults in prison has more than doubled, from 1,124 per 100,000 adults in 1990 to 2,481 per 100,000 adults in 2018. “Indigenous Australians are more likely to be in jail than African-Americans,” the working paper says.

The road to hell, where children are left to fall through the cracks | Sophie Trevitt Read more

Leigh says in 2007, the African-American incarceration rate was 75% higher than the Indigenous incarceration rate, but in 2017, the Indigenous incarceration rate for the first time exceeded the African-American incarceration rate.

He says among Indigenous men born in the 1970s, almost one in four have spent time in prison, and nine-tenths of Indigenous men from Western Australia born in the late-1970s have been arrested, charged or summonsed by police.

The research says it is possible that for some cohorts of Indigenous men – such as those without formal educational qualifications living in Western Australia and the Northern Territory – “the lifetime incarceration risk exceeds 50%”.

Leigh says incarceration rates in Australia are comparable to New Zealand, but higher than in Canada or England and Wales. “While the rates are lower than in the United States, that nation has seen a decline in imprisonment since 2007, while Australia has witnessed a marked increase over the same period.”

Leigh says up until 1970 there was a strong correlation between homicide and imprisonment in Australia, but now imprisonment has risen in spite of falling crime rates. He finds that from 1970, homicide rates and incarceration rates diverge. Homicide rates rose through the 1970s, while incarceration rates fell, but since the mid-1980s, homicide rates have halved, while the incarceration rate has doubled.

We know that prison doesn’t work. So what are the alternatives? | Jarryd Bartle Read more

He says prison populations are also changing. Between 1985 and 2018, the share of women prisoners nearly doubled, the share of Indigenous prisoners nearly tripled, and the average age of prisoners increased by seven years, from 29.0 years old to 36.2 years old.

“Taken together, these gender, race and age trends imply that young white men comprise a smaller share of prisoners today than they did a generation ago,” Leigh says.

The working paper says it is “probable” that higher reporting rates, stricter policing practices, tougher sentencing laws, and more stringent bail laws are the main drivers of Australia’s growing prison population.

The trend is negative in both economic and societal terms because a period of imprisonment reduces people’s employment prospects, and is negative for their general health and wellbeing. Released prisoners have a high chance of being homeless, Leigh says, and many reoffend.

“The rise in Australian incarceration rates over the past generation is a policy choice, not an accident,” Leigh says.

“While rates for most crimes have fallen, governments have deliberately chosen policies that have toughened bail laws and increased the amount of time that the typical prisoner serves.

“Mass incarceration has reached the point at which its costs undoubtedly outweigh its benefits,” Leigh says. “More rational criminal justice policies would save taxpayers money, improve community safety, and avoid the scarring effect of prison on offenders and their families”.

“Better policies would avert a second convict age, and produce a society with less crime, and less punishment.”