Today we move to The Volunteer State. Tennessee has been covered by a bright red hue — Trump won the state by 26 percentage points — but that characterization is a recent phenomenon. Not only did Al Gore represent the state in the Senate, but Democrats held the state house as recently as 2009. The state’s last governor was *gasp* a Democrat as well. Democrats are hoping the state may return to its roots this November, and I’m inclined to give the party a chance. The seat is open after Bob Corker’s retirement and a prime opportunity for a Democratic pickup in a dark-red state.

To see my previous race ratings, scroll to the bottom.

Tennessee (open seat) — Tossup

Remember when I mentioned that Tennessee’s last governor was a Democrat? Well, he’s running for this open Senate seat. If it weren’t for Phil Bredesen, the seat likely wouldn’t be in play. But, Bredesen hopes his tenure will be remembered this fall. Where Bredesen stands apart from others who have attempted “comeback” political bids is that he genuinely was an incredibly popular governor. In one poll conducted during his governorship, for example, Bredesen had a higher approval rate among Republicans than Democrats. In 2006, Bredesen won re-election with 68 percent of the vote, while his Republican opponent got less than 30 percent. Just look at this map from Wikipedia. He swept the state. That’s a whole lot of blue, but Tennessee is no longer the same state it used to be. In the last ten years, the state has seen a massive realignment. Republicans have taken control of all levels of state government. If you had asked me a year ago, I would have told you any Democrat running for Senate in Tennessee wouldn’t stand a chance, but with recent polling conducted in the state, Bredesen has a legitimate chance.

Bredesen’s record as governor was moderate and mixed in many ways. He made cuts in the state’s budget during a budget crisis to avoid implementing an income tax, including cuts to the state’s Medicaid program “TennCare.” Later on in his term, he increased funding again, covering residents with pre-existing conditions before Obamacare was passed. He also used lottery revenue to pay for college scholarships. As with Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, Bredesen’s moderate record will likely be an asset in Tennessee.