In each of the last two years, I’ve derived implied SRS ratings for NFL teams based on the Vegas point spreads (I also do the same for college football teams). Well, in late April, CG Technology released lines for 238 NFL games. Things have changed since late April, of course, but for now, let’s work with that data.

For the third straight year, Seattle, Denver, New England, and Green Bay are ranked among the top five teams in the NFL. And before you ask, yes, we will get to the Tom Brady issue in a few moments. The Seahawks are underdogs in just one game this year, and even in that game, Seattle is a just 1-point underdog in Green Bay. The Packers are underdogs in just one game, too: Green Bay is a 1.5-point underdog during a week 8 trip to Denver. On the other side, the Raiders aren’t favored in a game all year: the closest is a pick’em when the Jets come to Oakland.

As a reminder, we can use the Simple Rating System to take all 238 point spreads and derive ratings. But as a sign of how good Vegas viewed Seattle, consider these four Seahawks road lines:

The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points in St. Louis; the Rams are favored in every other home game.

The Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points in Dallas. The Cowboys were (this game occurs during Brady’s suspension now) a pick’em when the Patriots visit in week 5, and are 2.5-point favorites in every other home game.

The Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points in San Francisco. The 49ers are a pick’em when the Packers come to town, but otherwise, are favored by at least 2 points in every other home game.

The Seahawks are favored by 4.5 points when they travel to Minnesota. Other than being 3-point dogs against the Packers, the Vikings are not home underdogs in any other game.

Here’s how to read the table below. According to the Vegas lines from April 25th, Seattle is the best team in the NFL. Vegas provided lines for 15 games, and on average, Seattle is 4.4 points better than its opponent in those games (after awarding 3 points to the home team in each game). On average, Seattle’s opponent is 1.0 point above average, which means Seattle is 5.4 points better than the average team. Seattle’s schedule is the 5th toughest in the NFL.

Tm Rk Team G MOV SOS SRS Div SOS Rk 1 Seattle Seahawks 15 4.4 1 5.4 NFC West 5 2 Green Bay Packers 14 3.4 0.8 4.1 NFC North 8 3 Denver Broncos 15 3.4 0.2 3.6 AFC West 15 4 New England Patriots 15 4.2 -0.6 3.6 AFC East 25 5 Indianapolis Colts 15 3.7 -1.2 2.5 AFC South 29 6 Baltimore Ravens 15 1.8 0.3 2 AFC North 14 7 Arizona Cardinals 15 0.8 1.1 2 NFC West 3 8 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 0.7 1.3 1.9 AFC North 1 9 Dallas Cowboys 15 1.7 0.2 1.9 NFC East 16 10 San Francisco 49ers 15 0.6 1.2 1.9 NFC West 2 11 Philadelphia Eagles 15 1.9 -0.4 1.5 NFC East 20 12 Detroit Lions 15 0.3 1 1.3 NFC North 4 13 San Diego Chargers 15 1.1 -0.4 0.8 AFC West 19 14 St. Louis Rams 15 -0.2 0.9 0.7 NFC West 6 15 Cincinnati Bengals 15 0 0.7 0.7 AFC North 9 16 Kansas City Chiefs 15 0.1 0.6 0.7 AFC West 12 17 Miami Dolphins 15 1 -0.6 0.4 AFC East 23 18 Buffalo Bills 15 0.3 -0.2 0.1 AFC East 18 19 Carolina Panthers 13 0.8 -0.9 -0.1 NFC South 27 20 Houston Texans 15 0.7 -1.1 -0.4 AFC South 28 21 New Orleans Saints 14 0.8 -1.2 -0.4 NFC South 30 22 New York Giants 15 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 NFC East 21 23 Minnesota Vikings 15 -2 0.8 -1.2 NFC North 7 24 Chicago Bears 15 -1.9 0.6 -1.3 NFC North 10 25 Atlanta Falcons 15 -0.4 -1.2 -1.6 NFC South 31 26 Cleveland Browns 15 -3 0.6 -2.4 AFC North 11 27 Washington Redskins 15 -2.8 -0.2 -3 NFC East 17 28 New York Jets 15 -2.6 -0.6 -3.2 AFC East 22 29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 -3.9 -0.9 -4.8 NFC South 26 30 Oakland Raiders 15 -5.5 0.4 -5.1 AFC West 13 31 Tennessee Titans 15 -3.5 -1.6 -5.1 AFC South 32 32 Jacksonville Jaguars 15 -5.4 -0.6 -6 AFC South 24

Note that the SOS is based on only the games for which Vegas provided points spreads. That means all week 17 games were excluded, along with (for whatever reason) the Carolina @ New Orleans game in week 3 and the Green Bay @ Carolina game in week 9. If we include those games, what happens?

Well, the Cardinals face Seattle in week 17, so their schedule gets more difficult. The Dolphins (Patriots), Titans (Colts), Chargers (Broncos), and Vikings (Packers) also see their schedules get a little harder. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (Raiders), Texans (Jaguars), and Colts see their schedules improve.

What if Brady misses 4 games? Well, Bill Barnwell noted that the Patriots/Steelers line moved by 5 points, from New England -6.5 to New England -1.5 with the news that Jimmy Garoppolo would be starting. Let’s re-run the SOS numbers with all 256 games and the Brady adjustments (i.e., the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys now face a team with an SRS rating of -1.4, rather than 3.6). Note that no team’s SRS rating should change as a result of these changes: missing games don’t impact the SRS (that’s why this implied method works for college teams), and the Brady Patriots are a different team than the non-Brady Patriots.

The Cardinals now have the toughest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers — by losing a Brady game and gaining a Browns game — drop from having the toughest to the 8th toughest schedule. NFC West teams have four of the five toughest schedules, while the non-Jaguars AFC South teams have the three easiest ones.

SOS Rk Team SOS 1 Arizona Cardinals 1.4 2 San Francisco 49ers 1.2 3 Seattle Seahawks 1 4 Minnesota Vikings 1 5 St. Louis Rams 1 6 Detroit Lions 0.9 7 Cincinnati Bengals 0.8 8 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.7 9 Cleveland Browns 0.7 10 Chicago Bears 0.7 11 Green Bay Packers 0.6 12 Oakland Raiders 0.4 13 Baltimore Ravens 0.3 14 Denver Broncos 0.3 15 Kansas City Chiefs 0.2 16 Washington Redskins -0.1 17 San Diego Chargers -0.1 18 New York Giants -0.3 19 Miami Dolphins -0.3 20 Dallas Cowboys -0.3 21 Philadelphia Eagles -0.4 22 New York Jets -0.5 23 New England Patriots -0.5 24 Buffalo Bills -0.7 25 Carolina Panthers -0.8 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.9 27 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.9 28 New Orleans Saints -1.2 29 Atlanta Falcons -1.2 30 Tennessee Titans -1.3 31 Houston Texans -1.4 32 Indianapolis Colts -1.5

Finally, here are the results for the 238 games that CG Technology released a spread. Here’s how to read it: In week 1, the Seahawks are on the road to play the Rams, and the line is -3.5. That means the Seahawks have a location-adjusted MOV of +6.5, or are 6.5 points better than the Rams. St. Louis has an SOS of +0.7, which means the Seahawks receive a single-game SRS of +7.2 for this game.