“Analytics are like a bikini. They show a lot, but they don’t show everything”, Warriors’ GM and president of basketball operations Bob Myers said it best at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2016.

Basketball analytics is something new to me, stumbling across it at the 132,000+ member Hardwood community on Amino, the #1 NBA community for blogging, voting in polls, taking quizzes, and public chats with.

I soon found out the extraordinary passion the Hardwood community has for advanced NBA metrics and analytics and was intrigued with the PIPM metric.

Player Impact Plus-Minus (PIPM)

PIPM is the mastermind of Jacob Goldstein. In his very own words, “there are three components of Player Impact Plus-Minus: a box-score prior, luck-adjusted on-off data, and luck-adjusted net rating”.

“Together these three components are able to provide a descriptive function of what has happened as well as add insight into future results”, Goldstein shared with Fansided.

A full explanation can be found here but in summary the PIPM metric measures a players points impact on their team on a per 100 possession basis with the idea of creating a stable set of data and a clearer view of how an individual impacts their team.

The mean for any given season is a PIPM of 0, considered the average player. The estimated PIPM for a a fringe NBA player is -2.3.

A current snapshot of the 2019-20 season demonstrates Giannis as a back-to-back MVP with a PIPM of 9.01, combining both offensive and defensive PIPM contributions.

Source: Bball Index as of 22-Mar

Luck Adjusted On-Off Data

The largest component of PIPM is luck adjusted on-off data, explained here in detail by Goldstein.

On-off data in it’s basic form compares a team’s net rating (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) for a player comparing when they were on-court and off-court.

‘Luck adjusted’ data will effectively make a formulated adjustment to a players on-off data based on factors that are largely out of their control.

A defensive example is an opponents 3-point shooting percentage, with the theory that players have limited control over an opponents shooting percentage and an individual player having virtually no control.

An offensive example is a teammate’s free throw percentage, as an individual has no bearing on how accurate his teammates are.

The NBA’s Most Overpaid Player

PIPM can be crunched in various ways, and Stephen Akwaowo used the advanced metric to compare the leagues 40 highest paid players against their respective value to their team.

“I’m not Kemba. I’m not coming in here acting like I’m Kemba. I’m Terry”

“I’m not Kemba. I’m not coming in here acting like I’m Kemba. I’m Terry,”, Rozier said before the season and his first with the Hornets.

Rozier is the 40th highest paid in the league. The lineal graph shows Rozier as the most overpaid by far with a PIPM of -3.19 PIPM, 16th least valuable of all players in the entire NBA.

Kemba is the 7th highest paid in the league and 19th most valuable on this list however can lay claim to a positive contribution with a PIPM of 2.35.

Giannis Antetekounmpo demonstrates exceptional value for the Bucks as MVP, despite 32 players earning more than him.

Based on his PIPM he will be well worth the five-year, $253 million contract extension Giannis will be eligible for with the Bucks later on this year.

NBA’s Worst Defender

BBall Index’ PIPM allows us to expose liabilities on defense and interpret those who aren’t pulling their worth.

As good as the undeniably brilliant Trae Young is, NBAdraftnet.com were accurate with their comparison to Curry and their pre-draft analysis of Trae.

“As polished as Young is offensively, he is a near liability on defense.”

He’s extremely valuable offensively from anywhere on the floor but his overall PIPM is impacted by his defensive frailties.

Source: Bball Index as of 22-Mar

NBA’s Best Attacker

The BBall Index’ PIPM also exposes Luka Doncic as the best offensive player in the league, and he quite possibly is the best offensive player ever for someone at his age.

Former NBA player and coach Mark Jackson likens Doncic to “an absolute combination of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.”

His overall value to the Mavericks is limited, similar to the value of Trae’s to Atlanta, due to their liabilities on defense impacting their overall value to their teams.

Source: Bball Index as of 22-Mar

Player Distribution Tool

The Stepien provides a distribution tool comparing prospects from the 2014-2018 draft class that allows us to calculate a peak career value based off PIPM values of their college performance (average of a player’s three best Player Impact Plus Minus seasons)

Based on a calculations of the distribution tool which I played around with, Andrew Wiggins was a <1% chance of becoming a Top 10 player.

Ben Simmons was calculated as a 13.5% chance of becoming a Top 10 player and Bam Adebayo only a 1.7% chance.

Check the tool out for yourself but you can make some great comparisons and probabilities of players becoming rotation, starters, Top 10 players and even likelihood of falling to the G-League.

So there you have it. PIPM helps prove what most of us knew already.

Antetokounmpo is the real MVP, Rozier is overpaid, Trae Young can’t defend and Luka Doncic is offensively on a level of his own.

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