One year into Trump's presidency, British bookmakers still think he'll be impeached

Kim Hjelmgaard | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption British bookmakers: 64% chance Trump gets impeached Impeaching Donald Trump has been one of the most talked about issues in Washington and across the pond, it's no different. Veuer's Nick Cardona (@nickcardona93) has that story.

LONDON – One year into Donald Trump’s presidency, the odds that he’ll be a short-timer are the highest ever, a top bookmaker reports.

Trump's chances of being forced out of office before the end of his term on Jan. 20, 2021, now stand at 64%, according to Dublin-based Paddy Power, which takes bets in Ireland and the United Kingdom.

The previous high was 60% in August, following reports that special counsel Robert Mueller was using a grand jury to compel people to testify in an investigation into allegations that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to meddle in the U.S. election.

More: A consequential president: Trump's tweets have overshadowed the impact of his policies at one year in

Lee Price, a Paddy Power spokesman, said that since the firm began taking Trump-related bets a little more than a year ago, at least 10,000 bets averaging about $35 have been placed on Trump being impeached. Only 82 people wagered that he won’t be impeached.

"Trump is a massive talking point in the U.K., he's in our newspapers every day and ultimately when it comes to this particular market people want to see him fall," said Price. He said that since the recent publication of Michael Wolff's Fire and Fury, a critical book about Trump's White House, Paddy Power's probability for impeachment in 2018 increased to 40%, up from 27%.

The majority of Paddy Power's betting business is on sports, such as soccer, darts, cricket, rugby and tennis, but it also offers wagers on politics, entertainment, special events and the weird. Examples: the chances of aliens or Elvis being found and when the world will end.

The British appetite for Trump-related bets has been so intense that last year Paddy Power appointed a head of Trump betting. "People are betting on Trump like no person ever before," said Joe Lee, who has that post. "Trump has single-handedly made political betting big again."

As Trump is about to start his second year in office, rival British gambling firms such as Betfair and Ladbrokes offer slightly more favorable odds.

"His position right now is the most stable it’s been since July, and he’s odds-on at 4/5 to last his full term," said Katie Baylis, a Betfair spokeswoman, referring to 4 to 5 odds, or a 56% probability.

"Compare that to the end of last year when he was similar odds not to go the distance," Baylis said. "And it seems as he nears the anniversary of his inauguration, that punters (gamblers) at least believe 2018 is looking fairly safe for him."

Baylis said Betfair has taken 150,000 bets regarding Trump. The largest was for $28,000 in May — that Trump would leave his position in 2017.

Ladbrokes raised its probability for Trump serving a full first term to 58% — from 56% a year ago. William Hill, another bookmaker, reckons Trump has a 33% chance of winning a second term, spokesman Joe Crilly said.

What does it take to impeach a president? Learn the laws, steps and votes needed in the Presidential impeachment process. An earlier version of this video incorrectly identified one of the president’s who was impeached.

“The (Trump) betting is probably more fun-based rather than other more skill-based forms of betting,” such as placing wagers on sports, said Mark Griffiths, a professor of behavioral addiction at England's Nottingham Trent University.

Bookmakers like those in Britain are largely illegal in the United States, although the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has considered relaxing legislation that covers sports betting and other online gambling.

The CFTC granted PredictIt, a company started in New Zealand that now has an office in Washington, D.C., a limited license to experiment with markets to forecast events, including political outcomes such as the possibility of Trump leaving office.

Another firm, San Francisco-based start-up Augur, will soon launch a peer-to-peer prediction market that may circumvent regulatory oversight. Trump is one topic it expects to be popular, said Tom Kysar, who handles its operations.

Will Jennings, a spokesman for PredictIt in Washington, said trading activity by investors indicates a 12% chance of Trump being impeached in 2018.

"You can make the argument that he got tax cuts passed, that he made it through his first year. For whatever reason, the market has decided that it's more likely that he'll stay in office," he said.

"People in the U.K. are reading different things, they have a different perspective," he added. "I can't really tell you why they think Trump's more likely to go — that's the beauty of the thing."

Contributing: Jane Onyanga-Omara