DECISION DESK NOW CALLS

Trump Barely Edges Cruz in Kentucky in Louisiana; Comparison of LA Early Voting Vs. Today's Voting Shows Major Shift to Cruz; Wins Night, 64 Delegates to Trump's 49

64 delegates won by Cruz on the night, 49 for Trump.

Compared to our Super Tuesday-based estimates, Trump stayed totally flat, Cruz surged, Rubio collapsed pic.twitter.com/tjNkXhOI3L — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 6, 2016



With Louisville going narrowly for Trump, 30-28%, I guess Decision Desk decided there was no longer enough vote outstanding for Cruz to overcome Trump's slim 4-point lead statewide. So it looks like both KY and LA will go to Trump with fairly narrow margins (4 points).

Rubio is not even in the conversation, nor is Kasich.

It seems unlikely that Rubio or Kasich will drop out before their states vote in 10 days, but it does seem like anyone with a brain in their heads should realize that votes for either of these men are wasted votes, and effectively votes in favor of Trump.

Rubio and his diehards continue to babble that the "map really looks good for Rubio going forward." Apparently the map yet to come is completely different from the 22 states, scattered in all regions of the country except the far west, that have already voted.

But there's some hidden, secret Rubio Remnant hiding out there in states completely different from all of these: Texas, Maine, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Vermont, South Carolina, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas, Iowa, Alaska...

What states could possibly be so different from these that Rubio is going to suddenly zoom up from his 8-14% level?

Cruz is lately averaging from the thirties to forties -- previously, a Trumpian level of domination.

No one except Cruz has posted such big tallies -- has anyone but Cruz and Trump broken the 30% level, anywhere?

Upon what possible basis, except for fantasy, can one postulate that Rubio is, as usual, just 'round the corner from breaking through?

There are now two tiers in this race -- Trump/Cruz, and in the second tier, Rubio/Kasich. His numbers at the Kasich level, sometimes below them.

The Big Mo:

Acadia County, LA

Early votes: Trump 47, Cruz 26, Rubio 19

Election day votes: Trump 44, Cruz 41, Rubio 9https://t.co/ehUkaEfe24 — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 6, 2016

East Baton Rouge Parish

Early (4,583): Trump 40% Rubio 25% Cruz 23%

Election Day (18,044 so far; 180/315 in): Cruz 44% Trump 32% Rubio 12% — Greg Giroux (@greggiroux) March 6, 2016

Note that while Trump will win these two states, the margins will be small.

This may or may not happen:

So Cruz will win ME and KS big, while Trump wins LA and KY narrowly. Cruz will win the delegates on the day. — Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) March 6, 2016



The "Trump the Phenomenon" phase of the campaign is officially over. He's squeaking by Ted Cruz now -- either Trump's not a phenomenon, or Cruz is also one. You can't make a "Trump the Phenomenon" case on 4% margin of victory.

Rubio's Win is Cruz's Gain: Little doubt about it that it was Rubio's belittling of Trump that got into Trump's head and caused Trump to get really weird in the debate.

Can't lie; that's Rubio's doing. It's not just that he blew himself up in taking Trump down a peg. Just the way it works out sometimes.



