Hamilton school boards say families will likely be impacted this year by a shortage of school bus drivers — but just how drastic that shortage will be remains to be seen.

Hamilton's public and Catholic boards say there will be too few drivers to take children to school in September. That means bus routes could be impacted, and students may have to wait longer.

On paper, there are enough drivers to cover the routes, says Todd White, Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board (HWDSB) chair. But the last two years have taught them to expect more retirements and resignations in late August.

"We've learned from past mistakes," he said, "and we're projecting shortages."

The HWDSB and the Hamilton-Wentworth Catholic District School Board (HWCDSB) have a joint transportation consortium that handles bus routes in Hamilton.

The consortium scrambled to fix last year's shortage, White said, and managed it by Thanksgiving. Last year, school started about 18 drivers short. By the end of the year, it was still about eight drivers short, White said.

Impacted students waited an average of 18 minutes longer for a bus. The boards even fined one bus company $10,000, but it didn't fix the problem.

The consortium will meet early next week, said HWCDSB chair Patrick Daly. Then the boards will have more information to share with parents.

But so far, it's not looking good.

"Staff as well as the bus operators are doing everything they can to mitigate it," Daly said. "We have no information that anything has changed in the last couple of years."

Families can sign up for email updates at hamiltonschoolbus.ca.

As for why the shortage is happening, Ontario Ombudsman Paul Dubé​ looked at the issue in 2016.

Dubé​ found that more drivers were leaving the profession in general. He said in Toronto, at least, that would be improved by distributing routes earlier, communicating more and hosting workshops for bus operators.