Conservative Joe Oliver, who has served as Stephen Harper’s finance minister since March 2014, is holding a seven-point lead in Eglinton-Lawrence over Liberal challenger Marco Mendicino, according to a new Forum Reseach poll.

In a random poll of Eglinton-Lawrence residents, 41 per cent said they plan to vote for Oliver in the Oct. 19 federal election, followed by 34 per cent who will vote for Mendicino and 20 per cent who will vote for the NDP. The NDP has yet to nominate a candidate for the riding, so Forum used former candidate Justin Chatwin’s name in the survey.

The closely watched race follows a raucous nomination vote two weeks ago in which Mendicino defeated Eve Adams, the former Mississauga MP who crossed over from the Conservatives in February and was parachuted into the riding as Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s pick.

For the moment at least, “The finance minister looks very comfortable in his riding, and that’s because the NDP, without even a nominated candidate, achieves one fifth of the vote. If this is extrapolated across the country, the Conservatives may be in safer territory than we think," said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

The poll found that 46 per cent of Oliver’s supporters were in the 45-54 age bracket, and 63 per cent in the mid-income group: households with an annual income of $60,000 to $80,000.

Forum conducted the polling on Aug. 5, surveying 709 randomly selected Torontonians via telephone. The results are considered accurate within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star, and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.