In the past, the event has marked the beginning of massive runs...

Consensus 2017. The event was one of a number of important catalysts at the early stages of the greatest bull run in the history of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. The market rose by hundreds of percents in the following weeks and months. This kind of growth in any other sector would simply be impossible. Unimaginable. But it happened.

Consensus 2018. An event that gathers even more industry leaders in blockchain technology and hosts days of announcements about the latest innovations and advancements in the industry, this time more mature and ready for greater growth. It is bound to stir up some major excitement in the market.

I can't help but think of all the past indicators of huge bull runs that did not materialise into massive gains.

Months ago, predictions pointed to events such as tax days, Wall Street bonus checks, the end of Chinese New Year, and so forth. While each of these events did seem to cause a slight rise in optimism, the market growth was short-lived. Bad news seemed to follow every bit of positive news that emerged, as if someone, or some group, was deliberately trying to keep prices down.

Maybe someone was. It's hard to say. When you are zoomed into the hourly or daily movement of a market, it's pretty tough to see things in perspective. In reality, this is a long-term game, despite the rapid and apparently irrational volatility of the daily goings-on in this relatively tiny market. Again, it bears mentioning, the entire cryptocurrency market has a market cap that is less than half the value of some individual corporations. Apple, for example, has a market cap exceeding $900 billion. The entire crypto market cap stands around $400 billion at the moment.

We are talking about a very small, relatively illiquid market that can be moved up and down like a yo-yo by those who have the funds to do so.

So, while it is very likely that we will see some growth in response to Consensus this year, do not be too disappointed if things don't go ballistic like they did last year. Try standing back and zooming out a little bit. If prices drop, remember that it's a good time to buy a little more if you are in a position to do so, or to simply hold and avoid panicking. Instead of depending on an event like Consensus, avoid counting on any one single event to bet your funds. In the long term, things will move positively.

A year from now, it's possible we could look back at Consensus 2018 as the beginning of a solid bull run. But there will be dips and rises just like there have been consistently in the past. This is still a very young and small industry finding its way in a big world. Try to enjoy the crazy ride, and don't sweat the dips.

*This is not professional trading advice - it's just my opinion!

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image source:

https://www.hyperledger.org/event/consensus-2018