It’s easy to see the downside of doing something different. We do on a daily basis. We fret about buying things that could be a waste of money, or of driving a little faster on the road for fear of getting pulled over.

What we’re generally less good at is recognizing the other side of that equation. The risk that comes with not doing something. You may have actually needed the thing you decided not to buy, or your fear of a speeding ticket may have made you late for something important. When making decisions, it’s always easy to overlook the opportunity cost; the invisible costs that come with not taking action.

The risks of the Minnesota Vikings trading for Sam Bradford are obvious.

If he leaves after a year without winning a Super Bowl than the trade would’ve been a terrible one. Even if he stays and the Bradford of the future looks like the Bradford of the past, it’s hard to feel good about surrendering a first and a fourth round pick (which could become a third if they make it to the NFC Championship game ). Who knows, maybe a younger Teddy Bridgewater comes back sooner than expected and hands the Vikings a different set of problems.

If your goal is to protect against the worst outcomes, than staying away from Bradford was the right call. But there are significant risks following that route, too.

There’s an inherent tendency to think draft picks are more lucrative than they actually are. Stock piling picks is a smart strategy not because it means you’re stock piling good players, but rather because you’re hedging against all the duds. Teams have about a 30 percent chance of landing cheap Pro Bowl talent in the first round, a number that only gets slimmer as the draft goes on. Most of the time teams end up with solid starters ( about a 50 percent chance in the first round ) and roster-fillers. Both have value, of course, but aren’t the kind of home runs hopeful fans like to suggest.

Besides, considering the current state of the quarterback market, it’s not hard to see the Vikings recouping one of the two picks it just gave up in a subsequent trade if Bradford or Bridgewater return to a good level. It’s also worth pointing out that part of the reason the Vikings made this trade was because it had picks to spare.

Not trading for Bradford also effectively means sacrificing at least one, and probably two, seasons.

Maybe things go well and the Vikings sneak into the playoffs this year, but opting for a season with Shaun Hill under center probably means settling for something around 8-8

And so onto 2017, which would be dedicated to seeing whether Bridgewater is salvageable. Even if he was exactly the same as before, his overall ability was still open to question — with all due respect, this isn’t Tom Brady the Vikings are waiting around for.

Only half joking: No worries if Bradford fails in Minnesota. @Vikings can just leverage a few No. 1s from the next team desperate for a QB. — Mike Sando, ESPN.com (@SandoESPN) September 3, 2016

Going into a holding pattern for the next two seasons is a long time. Promising rosters have a habit of dismantling themselves quickly in the NFL. Free agency happens. Injuries happen. Personal issues that you can’t plan for happen. Players get older. Even if the Vikings stave off those problems, it could still have to find a replacement quarterback and an heir for an aging Adrian Peterson.

Those who say Bradford’s statistics don’t offer much of an upgrade over Hill are being slightly unfair. Bradford has been surrounded by terrible teams for almost all of his career, and even after moving to a decent Philadelphia Eagles team last season, his receivers still dropped the most passes in the NFL.

Bradford is an upgrade, one whose strengths mesh with what Mike Zimmer prizes in his conservative offenses: he takes care of the football — his 2.3 career pass interception percentage is sixth best in NFL history. He may not transform the Vikings into instant Super Bowl favorites, but in the right system, he should be pleasantly functional.

Let’s say the 28 year-old Bradford stays healthy (a big if, yes), and establishes himself as an Alex Smith-type quarterback. Whether Bridgewater comes back to a point where the Vikings can deal him is almost irrelevant. The team would be looking at what could be seven years of a quarterback that can keep them competitive. Suddenly, dealing with problems like Peterson’s retirement becomes infinitely easier.

A first round pick is a lot, but it’s the inevitable premium teams pay for a chance like this. To be perfectly honest, I’m not sure I’d have pulled the trigger on a trade like this. But even if it doesn’t work out, the Vikings’ reasoning will have never been as outlandish as some would have you to believe.