A string of brutal attacks over the past several weeks, killing and injuring hundreds of innocent Afghans, have shown the world the fragile and worsening state of security in Afghanistan and made it once again a staple of international headlines.

The incidents have plunged war-weary Afghan citizens into a state of despair and highlighted the limitations faced by the government in Kabul in ensuring public security.

Both the Taliban and the so-called "Islamic State" (IS) have claimed responsibility for the violence.

A bloody start

2018 did not start on a positive note for the nation ravaged by the vagaries of conflict and turmoil over the past several decades. Many Afghans believe the attacks they have witnessed in January mark only the beginning in the latest bout of violence. Fears abound about the number of casualties rising in the coming months. The alleged peace talks that were mentioned only a few weeks ago are now but a distant memory.

What are the reasons for this surge in violence?

The latest attacks can be regarded as a response to the recent US military offensive in the Afghan provinces Helmand, Nangarhar, Kunduz and others, said A.D. Mohammad Arif, an Afghan security expert.

"The Taliban usually start their offensive after the winter (as a spring offensive), but they have now brought it forward in response to the US' new Afghanistan strategy. They want to show that they are far from being defeated," Arif told DW.

Unlike in previous years, the US, along with Afghan security forces, began its offensive against the insurgents in the winter this year. The move is part of the US' new Afghan strategy, unveiled by President Donald Trump in August 2017.

Trump then affirmed that he would increase the number of US troops in Afghanistan and remain engaged in the country until it no longer needed them. The US president also blamed Pakistan as the main reason for the lack of progress in Afghanistan.

To lend weight to his words, Trump even froze US military aid to Islamabad.

Washington's stated objective is to put pressure on Pakistan until Pakistani authorities revoke their alleged support to outfits like the Afghan Taliban and other insurgent groups.

The right solution?

At a press conference on Monday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani indirectly blamed Pakistan for the recent series of attacks. "(The Taliban) have claimed responsibility without hesitation, as per their masters' wish. These masters have made it clear that they will not bow to pressure from the outside," said Ghani.

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Endless battle for power in Afghanistan Fragile security Repeated attacks in Afghanistan in 2018 and 2019 have killed and wounded hundreds of innocent Afghans, and shown the world the fragile and worsening state of security in the conflict-stricken country. The incidents have plunged war-weary Afghan citizens into a state of despair and highlighted the limitations faced by the government in Kabul in ensuring public security.

Endless battle for power in Afghanistan A long series of attacks The violent incidents have made Afghanistan once again a staple of international headlines. Outfits like the Taliban and the "Islamic State" (IS) have claimed responsibility for the attacks. The Afghan government is under heavy pressure to restore security and take back territory controlled by a number of insurgent groups, including the Taliban and IS.

Endless battle for power in Afghanistan Spring offensive In 2018, the Taliban announced the start of their annual spring offensive, dismissing an offer of peace talks by President Ashraf Ghani. The militants, fighting to restore their version of strict Islamic law to Afghanistan, said their campaign was a response to a more aggressive US military strategy adopted in 2017, which aims to force the militants into peace talks.

Endless battle for power in Afghanistan Trump's Afghanistan policy US President Donald Trump unveiled a new strategy for Afghanistan in 2017, vowing to deploy more troops to train and advise Afghan security forces. Trump also pledged to support Afghan troops in their war against the Taliban and maintain US presence in the country for as long as there was a need for it. In 2019, he reversed course and promised a troop pullout.

Endless battle for power in Afghanistan Afghan peace process Despite President Ghani's offer in February 2018 for peace talks "without preconditions," the Taliban had until 2019 shown no interest, dismissing the peace overtures as a "conspiracy."

Endless battle for power in Afghanistan Pakistani support Pakistan has been under pressure from Kabul and Washington to stop offering safe havens to militants blamed for attacks in Afghanistan, a charge Islamabad denies and insists that its influence over the insurgents has been exaggerated. Kabul and Islamabad regularly trade accusations of harboring the other country's militants and the harsh language has underscored the strains between them.

Endless battle for power in Afghanistan Role of the warlords Apart from the Taliban, Afghan warlords exercise massive influence in the country. Last year, Hizb-i-Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar returned to Kabul after a 20-year exile to play an active role in Afghan politics. In September 2016, the Afghan government signed a deal with Hekmatyar in the hope that other warlords and militant groups would seek better ties with Kabul.

Endless battle for power in Afghanistan An inefficient government In the midst of an endless battle for power, President Ghani's approval ratings continue to plummet. Rampant corruption in the Afghan government and a long tug-of-war within the US-brokered national unity government has had a negative impact on the government's efforts to eradicate terrorism. Author: Shamil Shams



Nicole Birtsch, an Afghanistan expert, is also of the view that the recent attacks could be a reaction to the air strikes and anti-insurgent operations the US military and Afghan security forces have been jointly carrying out against the Taliban.

Birtsch is unconvinced about the effectiveness of the US strategy to pressure Pakistan. "The strategy does not lead to a conducive environment for the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan to hold talks on an equal footing."

The analyst says she is not optimistic about the near future, suspecting that the coming weeks will continue to be characterized by escalating violence. "I fear that people in Kabul, in particular, are losing hope for a more stable future because of the violence. They are therefore merely surviving rather than living."