As the Mueller investigation inexorably closes the noose around Donald Trump and his immediate family, panicked Republicans, prodded by the White House, are doing everything they can to discredit Robert Mueller, the FBI and the entire justice department.

Last week, Republicans on the House judiciary committee opened fire, grilling the deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein, and accusing Mueller’s team of bias and a “political witch-hunt”. This makes for great political theater and irresistible cable news fodder, but looking down the road at the different ways this gambit will play itself out, you have to wonder: what on earth are Republicans thinking?

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Trump partisans might succeed in derailing Mueller in the short run, but that spells disaster in the end for Republicans. Let’s take a look at the whole chessboard and see how the game looks several moves from now. It’s not pretty.



The initial playbook is familiar. First, muddy the water by vigorously deploying “whataboutism” at high volume on everyone from Barack Obama to Mueller to (especially) Hillary Clinton. Drag up discredited allegations like the Russian uranium deal, Clinton e-mails, or – God help us – Benghazi.



Second, create-your-own conspiracy by finding someone in the FBI or justice department who either contributed to Democrats or said bad things about Donald Trump. There are surely lots of them, and Trump backers have already dug up a couple of juicy examples.



Third, demand another special counsel to investigate the investigators, tarring Mueller and the FBI, and thereby dragging out the denouement. So far, so good. But then what?

Here are the likely scenarios:

1. A special counsel is appointed to investigate the FBI’s handling of the Clinton e-mails, Russian uranium, etc. Since these cases have already been debunked by official investigations, the gambit leads nowhere but down a rathole. Money is wasted, nothing is learned, and the conspiracy true-believers still see black helicopters everywhere. Congressional Republicans take a beating in the non-fake news media for partisan hypocrisy. Dead end.

2. The second special counsel investigates Mueller and the FBI. Mueller is a lifelong Republican, appointed to head the FBI by George W Bush, and he’s also a Trump administration appointee. A genuine American hero, a Vietnam veteran who won two Bronze Stars for valor and a Purple Heart, he has an impeccable legal reputation. He wins praise from Republicans on Capitol Hill and even Trump’s own lawyers. No there, there. Dead end.

The longer this drags on, the tougher 2018 looks for the ruling party

3. Trump fires Mueller. Despite all the brave statements from Republican senators defending Mueller in months past, by even raising the possibility of a second special counsel, congressional Republicans have given the president the green light to fire Mueller. But even if Trump gets rid of Mueller and doesn’t precipitate a constitutional crisis (doubtful), the investigation isn’t going away. There are two indictments and two guilty pleas on the table already. The justice department, even under Trump’s loyal lapdog Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, will continue to dig. It may take longer, but as Plutarch warned in his Moralia: “The millstones of the gods grind late, but they grind fine.” And there’s the rub. For Republicans, delay spells doom.

The calendar is not the Republican party’s friend. The longer this drags on, the tougher 2018 looks for the ruling party. Congress’ popularity is already in single digits, and Trump’s numbers continue to erode in the Republican base. He’s already lost everybody else.



If Democrats take the House of Representatives next year, which now seems possible, it represents an existential threat to the Trump presidency, and to Republican electoral prospects for years. Democrats will beef up investigations at all levels, and that will not end well for Trump. (See Watergate, and the Democratic waves of 1974 and 1976.)

Here’s the really interesting part. For congressional Republicans, and the Republican party nationally, it doesn’t really matter if Trump is guilty or innocent. Either way, a quick resolution is the best outcome for the party. Think about it.

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If Trump is innocent, the sooner that’s cleared up the better. He’s still mightily unpopular, but at least he’s not going to jail, and Republicans can get on with the business of government, vastly improving their election prospects for 2018.



If he’s guilty, best to just rip off the bandage and get it over with. The sooner the better. Plus, by encouraging an honest and thorough investigation, establishment Republicans would burnish their reputations as patriotic, honest statesmen, also vastly improving their election prospects for 2018.



So why don’t congressional Republicans recognize the Hobson’s choice Trump is demanding? Maybe they fear Trump’s hypnotic control over the Republican base, but that aura of invincibility was shattered in Alabama’s Senate vote. Maybe they fear Hannity, Fox “News”, Rush Limbaugh, Breitbart or the rightwing noise machine? Maybe, but that noise will cease when the rest of the indictments come down. Surely they don’t fear Steve Bannon after Alabama?

Whatever the reason, the Republican establishment is being stampeded by the Trumpistas into a completely avoidable disaster. Now is the time for Republican congressional leaders to take their fate into their own hands and make the smart play.

