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By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof Fritz Vahrenholt

It’s rather peculiar: None of the IPCC climate models projected the warming pause of the last 17 years. An real embarrassment.

Scientist Stefan Rahmstorf was devastated, and so publicly disputed that there even was a pause at all. Naturally this strategy cannot be successful over the long run. Then on April 23, 2015, a team of scientists lead by Matthew England published an article in Nature Climate Change , whose title finally and officially conceded the warming pause:

Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus.”

The abstract reads:

The hiatus in warming has led to questions about the reliability of long-term projections, yet here we show they are statistically unchanged when considering only ensemble members that capture the recent hiatus. This demonstrates the robust nature of twenty-first century warming projections.

A wonderful strategy: 95% of all models are wrong (see the following figure from Roy Spencer), so simply take the remaining 5% of the models and, with them a single stroke of the pen, declare them “robust” and reliable in their ability to forecast. A real joke.