A mild winter coupled with an excessively rainy 2018 may lead to a surge in the number of ticks capable of transmitting Lyme disease this spring, according to researchers at Rutgers University.

More blacklegged ticks will be out in force as temperatures begin to rise after thriving last summer and fall, and surviving the winter thanks to favorable weather.

"Ticks, like most small organisms, are very sensitive to dry weather. It kills them," said Dina M. Fonseca, a Rutgers entomology professor and director of its the Center for Vector Biology. "But we have been experiencing exceptionally wet seasons. It slows down their decline in number. So we could end up for a very large population this year."

Climate change, which has fostered warmer winters, has contributed to the higher numbers by allowing more ticks and their animal hosts to survive the colder months and spread out to regions that have not typically hosted the arachnid, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states experienced above average temperatures and precipitation from December through February.

For instance,New Jersey was deluged in 2018 with 64.8 inches of precipitation — the wettest year on record, according to David Robinson, the state climatologist. It was followed with a winter that has had the 13th-most precipitation since 1895.

Temperatures are forecast to climb over the next several days with highs in the mid-50s to low-60s in much of the Northeast.

The threat in late winter and early spring comes from ravenous adult ticks looking for a host to feed.

Unlike younger nymphs that often stay inactive in a leaf cover or other shelter until late spring, adults stay active in winter and are capable latching onto a host. They often emerge in abundance in March or earlier depending on the thermometer.

"The sooner the temperature rises, the greater the threat becomes," said Alvaro Toledo, an assistant entomology professor at Rutgers.

Although they are only a fraction of the size of a dime, adults are big enough to be spotted more easily than younger nymphs or larva, making them easier to detect and brush off before possibly transmitting the bacteria that causes Lyme.

But the mild winter will also mean more nymphs, which are most active from May through July. And more adults will mean more eggs laid this summer and more larvae, who are most active in late summer.

The U.S. has experienced a record number of Lyme disease cases in recent years, topping out at more than 30,000 in 2017.

Lyme threat endures

The Northeast is typically the hardest hit region for Lyme disease with Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York often leading the nation in cases.

New Jersey had 3,082 Lyme disease cases as of Nov. 3, a drop from the the 5,092 cases reported in 2017 — the highest total in nearly two decades.

Lyme cases may be far greater. Lyme is difficult to diagnose. Symptoms like fever, rash and aches could be caused by a number of ailments, making a quick diagnosis difficult.

Those infected may not have known they have been bitten by the minuscule tick. Symptoms appear in three to 30 days. If left untreated, long-term effects include headaches, chronic stomach problems, memory loss, stiffness of joints and speech impairment.

A team of researchers recently published a report showing there are 11 tick species that call New Jersey home to give the public a more accurate assessments of tick-borne disease risk as well as the development of strategies to minimize such risk statewide.

While some may think hiking while covered in layers during the late winter and early spring would eliminate the threat of ticks, Alvaro said that isn't always the case.

"Being bundled up also helps, but ticks can still grab onto your pants or coat and maneuver to your skin to feed on your blood," he said.

Tips on avoiding a tick bite

Keep grass short and underbrush thinned at your home.

Apply EPA-registered insect repellent on your skin, clothing, boots and camping gear when outdoors to prevent ticks from getting on your body.

Wear light-colored clothes to help you spot ticks easily.

Tuck pants into socks to keep ticks from getting under your clothes.

Check your body for ticks and shower within two hours of being outdoors.

If you find a tick, carefully remove it with fine-pointed tweezers. Grasp it by the mouth parts closest to the skin and pull it steadily outward. Do not use petroleum jelly, noxious chemicals or hot objects. The sooner the tick is removed, the less likely it is to transmit disease.

States with high incidence of Lyme disease

The highest rates of confirmed cases per 100,000 persons from 2015-2017 are found in the Northeast.

Maine: 89

Vermont: 87

Pennsylvania: 67

Rhode Island: 53

New Hampshire: 52

Connecticut: 42

New Jersey: 41

Delaware: 40

New York: 16

National average: 9

Staff Writer Lindy Washburn contributed to this article.

Email: fallon@northjersey.com

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