9 António Costa THE SUCCESSFUL LEFTIST Illustration by Jaya Nicely for POLITICO

António Costa is a rare thing in today’s Europe: a successful Socialist. After guiding his party to a record victory in October’s municipal elections, the Portuguese prime minister heads into the new year hoping to do even better.

Although his popularity was dented by criticism of the government’s handling of deadly forest fires in June and October, Costa’s supporters hope Portugal’s fast-paced economic recovery will quickly restore the PM’s standing.

Unlike other Socialists tainted by association with tough times, Costa — a tough political streetfighter behind a ready campaign smile — has managed to present himself as a champion of change, able to “turn the page on austerity.” He’s displayed a remarkable ability to balance leftist demands to reverse recession-era belt-tightening with a cautious thrift that’s pleased foreign investors and Portugal’s partners in the eurozone.

“If there is one thing all commentators agree on, it’s António Costa’s political savvy,” says André Azevedo Alves, a political expert at Lisbon’s Catholic University and St. Mary’s University in London. “There’s near unanimity on his political skills.”

Next year, Costa will have to continue his economic balancing act, face down a new opposition leader and deploy his political skills to manage a tricky relationship with the two far-left parties that prop up his minority government. The goal is securing an absolute majority in the next parliamentary elections, due in 2019.

Europe’s Socialists have beaten a path to Costa’s door. “What’s happening in Portugal is an example … of what you can do with a government action program that is both credible and true to your values,” former French President François Hollande told the Lisbon weekly Expresso.

Those hoping that Portugal will lead a European center-left resurgence, however, are likely to be disappointed. As Costa admits, Portugal’s model is hard to export. “There are no prêt-à-porter reforms,” he says. “They must be tailored to the specific needs of each country.”

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