NOAA Caught Cooling The Past

By Paul Homewood

h/t AC Osborn

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13

NOAA claim that 2014 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures 1.24F above the 20thC average of 57.0F.

In other words, 58.24F.

This is all very strange, because back in 1997, they said global temperatures were 62.45F!

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/1997/13

Now I am quite sure that temperatures have not really dropped by 4 degrees, or else glaciers would by now be advancing over the hill. And I do realise that NOAA and the rest like to talk in anomalies, rather than absolutes.

Nevertheless, if we have got so little idea of what global temperatures are, can we honestly have much confidence in claims of warmest years based on a few hundredths of a degree?

All of this though does raise a much more serious issue. How much of this four degree difference can be explained by ocean temperatures? NOAA did not show the splits for Land & Ocean in 1997, so we can’t say.

There were huge gaps in the SST record, prior to the introduction of ARGO in the early 2000’s. Put simply, they had no idea what global temperatures were then, and therefore it is impossible to know whether it has got any warmer since.

The plot thickens, however!

Back in 2007, NOAA offered this list of the 10 warmest years.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2007/13

The anomaly was set against the 1901-2000 baseline, just as it still is. Now compare with the current list of annual anomalies:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global

We discover that the anomaly for 2005 has increased from 0.60C to 0.65C. Similar increases have taken place in the other years. For instance, 1997 has been adjusted up by 0.06C, as has 1998 and 2006.

This has happened for the simple reason that the 1901-2000 baseline has been adjusted downwards, in other words cooling the past again, and all in the space of a few short years.

It’s funny how these adjustments always seem to go in the same direction!