How campaigns get out the vote

An election is an addition problem. A simple algebra problem, at worst. Of X voters, how do you get X divided by 2 plus 1 voters? Or, in the case of multiple candidates, how do you make sure that A is greater than B and C?

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In order to hit those numbers, campaigns figure out how many people they expect to vote (the total turnout) and which of those voters will support their candidate (either right off the bat or after some polling-driven advertisements). Over the course of the last few months before Election Day, campaigns reach out to targeted voters in as direct a way as possible, confirming support at the door or persuading from the airwaves.

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The part of the campaign that walks around talking to voters is called "field" (as in, "out in the –") or the "ground game." Most of the time, the people talking to voters are doing "IDs," figuring out who will back the candidate (and who won't). That all goes into a big database.

Once the election is imminent, the campaign moves from doing IDs to doing turnout -- the actual GOTV. Everyone who said they'd back the candidate gets all of the information they need to actually go to the polls: Where the polling place is, what its hours are, how to get a ride there if need be. People leave phone messages and doorhangers. On the day of the election, staffers for the campaign will check to see which targeted voters have already voted (in the places that allow this) and other staffers (or volunteers) go "knock-and-drag," encouraging committed voters to actually go cast a vote.

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Normally, that process of reminding and cajoling and informing would be what a campaign would be doing the weekend before the election.

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What happens in Iowa

Iowa is a different beast.

Our Dave Weigel outlined the specifics of what's different, but we can summarize: Everyone goes to a pre-determined caucus location on Monday evening. Republicans hear some speeches and then cast their votes. Democrats have an all-out-brawl until a bloodied winner emerges.

That's not much of an exaggeration. What's determined in a caucus is which candidate the site's delegate (or delegates) will represent. To win a delegate, a candidate must meet a minimum threshold of support, and if he or she can't do so, people who are supporting that candidate have to go caucus for some other candidate. In other words, the person-to-person persuasion lasts until all of the delegates are assigned. And for someone who's never been to a caucus before, this is not a simple thing.

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So particularly on the Democratic side, a lot more infrastructure is needed. Normally campaigns can take in volunteers the weekend before the election and just send them out to remind targeted voters to get out and vote. In Iowa, that's not as effective, because the process itself requires more explanation.

More importantly, candidates want to make sure that they have committed, educated people at the caucus sites who can guide the targeted voters (and their friends and family) through the process. The level of organization at caucus sites varies, as you'd expect, with some places making the process simple to understand and some places having less success to that end. Having at least one and, ideally, two people at each caucus site allows the campaign to help guide a number of simultaneous tasks. Holding their support strong in the face of poaching attempts from other campaigns. Trying at the same time to poach other caucus-goers. Making sure that people are sticking around. Making sure questions are answered. Assuring that competitors are obeying the rules And, no doubt, a thousand other things.

A telling example

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The American Prospect's Dana Goldstein detailed how tricky the whole thing was at a site in Des Moines in 2008.

A mother and son team, Alane and Brent Houck, served as precinct secretary and captain. The Houcks were enthusiastic about the process, but they didn't offer caucus-goers a big-picture explanation of how it all worked. This reporter, seated at the front of the room to distinguish herself from eligible participants, was mistaken for someone in charge, and asked several times where the voting booths were. When one middle aged woman wearing a Barack Obama sticker -- a first-time caucus-goer -- learned she'd actually be physically counted for her candidate instead of casting a ballot, she seemed confused, and later left the room before the count began. She never returned.

That right there is why GOTV for Iowa is tricky. Having someone in the room who already has a relationship with people like that first-time voter means she's more likely to stick around. Sending her off to this without that support may mean flipping a coin about whether or not she'll vote. In 2008, there was record turnout in for the Democrats, but divvied up at hundreds of sites with varying numbers of delegates, a handful of people in one place can make a big difference.

Democracy is necessarily a messier system of government than, say, a dictatorship. The Iowa caucuses are about as messy as they get -- while also being one of the most important parts of the presidential cycle. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders both have more support from voters who've never been to the caucuses before, meaning that a close race in the state (as each is) could come down to how well they handle this process.