Chicago’s recent success — before its current three-game losing streak — has put the organization in an even more interesting situation this season, but it has not fundamentally changed the key decisions at the trade deadline that will shape the future of the franchise.

Summer of 2018

The Bulls are one of the few teams in the league that can wield significant cap space this offseason. Their exact amount will change on a few different factors (draft pick slot, actual salary cap value, etc.) but $37 million works as a rough estimate of how much they will have to work with if the front office declines its team option on Nikola Mirotic (more on him below).

Should management choose to use that entire sum in 2018 on some combination of free agents and trade acquisitions, they still would have the ability to re-sign Zach LaVine using Bird rights (his cap hold is about $9.6 million) and use the $4.4 million room exception if desired.

That $37 million could go a long way in an offseason where remarkably few teams have much spending capacity, but an aggressive tact would severely limit Chicago’s ability to continue adding talent after that point. After all, Robin Lopez would be the only major salary coming off the books in 2019, while Jerian Grant, Bobby Portis and Paul Zipser are lined up for salary increases as restricted free agents and yearly raises to holdover players will largely offset the more modest cap jump.

The Bulls have a valuable trade exception from dealing Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but will they use it, unlike the Kyle Korver one they let lapse? (Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports)

Choosing between spending in 2018 and being patient is complicated enough but there could be a significant incentive in making that decision early. Chicago possesses the ability to take on about $11.5 million in 2017-18 salary at the trade deadline through the Jimmy Butler trade exception, which expires June 22 before the league year turns over. Since there are not many teams with the urgent need to drop below the luxury tax line this season, the Bulls’ front office would be able to secure a much better return if they are willing to use it on a multi-season contract. Of course, sacrificing some of that 2018-19 space now reduces their leverage and flexibility in the offseason so one key evaluation is whether the return now is better than it will be then.

The Bulls can decline to commit any more of their future cap space at the February deadline, but the Butler exception loses almost all of its value to them afterward because they will be looking at cap space instead, and that is more versatile. As such, the front office should use the Butler exception now on either an expiring deal as a salary dump or a long-term contract for an asset worth sacrificing that flexibility ahead of time.

Nikola Mirotic

The Mirotic rollercoaster ride over the last few months has been extraordinary, from a protracted restricted free agency to the Portis incident to success, both individually and collectively, upon his return.

After all that, the Bulls face a less complicated decision but an intriguing negotiation surrounding the Montenegrin forward. Mirotic’s contract is worth $12.5 million this season with a team option for another $12.5 million next season. That structure brings some advantages and complications moving forward. Most importantly, it looks like a reasonable salary for next year, meaning there should be teams interested in trading for the forward at the deadline.

The team option structure gives Mirotic the ability to block a trade due to a CBA rule pertaining to Bird rights. So in theory, the ideal situation would be one where the team willing to give up the most for Mirotic is also an acceptable destination for him, thus eliminating any desire to use that power. It makes sense that the most inspired suitor would be in that position because they intend to play him, though Mirotic can consider whatever factors he wants since it is his veto.

But should that create an impasse, Chicago has a contractual ace in the hole. The rule creating Mirotic’s ability to stop the trade only applies on contracts that can be one season, so they could pick up the option before the trade, thus negating his ability to dissent. (Editor’s note: The Chicago Tribune‘s K.C. Johnson reported this recently in Chicago.) That requires a greater commitment from the trade partner since they take on more risk without the ability to decline the option, but it can function as a fallback in an extreme case.

Bulls center Robin Lopez (left) and forward Nikola Mirotic (right) are likely being shopped by their team as we speak. Mirotic is more likely to be traded during the season than Lopez. (Alex Gallardo/AP Photo)

The front office could also choose to hang on to Mirotic as he has been an integral part of their recent success. But the presence of rookie Lauri Markkanen, low incentives to push for wins the remainder of this season and a limited trade market over the summer should push them toward moving him after Jan. 15.

Robin Lopez

Like Mirotic, Lopez is on a reasonable contract right now ($13.8 million this season and $14.4 million for 2018-19) and can contribute to a successful team in the short term. The difference between the two big men is positional supply and demand. Even if franchises around the league like Lopez and his contract, very few teams need center-only players and the competitive teams in particular are well-stocked with seven-footers.

Those forces will still be in play over the summer so it appears unlikely Chicago would be able to simply offload Lopez should it prefer cap space. The Bulls could still move him for something else, presumably either for someone at a different position or a salary-focused trade. At this juncture, those concepts fit better for a July 2018 transaction as more teams will know where they are relative to the cap and tax at that point.

Like many teams this January, the Bulls face the challenge of figuring out their own long-term path while being flexible enough to adjust should another general manager make an offer worth changing that approach. As of now, it feels like the most likely outcome is moving Mirotic while using the Butler exception to add expiring contracts in exchange for smaller but still useful assets since that focuses on maximizing what they can do in July when the front office can do more with their cap space.

(Top photo: Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports)