What to expect over the next few months as vote on EU membership approaches

This article is more than 4 years old

This article is more than 4 years old

Now that David Cameron has won his campaign to redefine Britain’s relationship with the European Union, voters will decide on Thursday 23 June whether to accept the deal.

The referendum will be the second such vote: in June 1975 just over two-thirds backed remaining a member of the then European Economic Community.

Given that opinion polls show that voters are fiercely divided on the question, the campaign over the next four months will be bitterly contested.

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Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London, said he expected both sides to stress the risks of either leaving or sticking with the status quo: “This is going to be a depressingly negative campaign.”

Monday 22 February

The prime minister will address the House of Commons, which must formally approve the date for the referendum. It will clash with the Glastonbury music festival, which opens its gates the previous day and continues until Sunday 26 June.

The date for the vote was agreed at a cabinet meeting held on Saturday that also freed ministers from the usual notion of collective responsibility. That decision allows ministers to oppose Cameron and back the campaign to leave the EU if they so desire.

The Eurosceptic justice secretary, Michael Gove – one of Cameron’s closest allies – said he will follow his conscience and support moves to secure a win for leaving the EU in the referendum. Other prominent Tories, such as Chris Grayling, leader of the House of Commons, have followed suit.

March/April

Secondary legislation that follows the European Union Referendum Act 2015 will come before parliament to allow for the EU referendum.

The Electoral Commission will then assign a “designated lead campaigner” for each side after assessing applications and applying a statutory test.

Lead campaign groups can spend up to £7m, get one free distribution of information to voters and a campaign television broadcast as well as a grant of up to £600,000 to assist with certain costs.

There are two main groups backing a vote to leave the EU:



Vote Leave is run by Matthew Elliott, who founded the Taxpayers’ Alliance campaign group, and Dominic Cummings, former special adviser to Gove. The group is also backed by Business for Britain and is regarded as the cross-party movement against Britain’s EU membership.

Leave.EU is painting itself as the grassroots campaign for a vote to exit the EU and is backed by Ukip leader Nigel Farage. He is the unofficial face of the campaign, although its chief executive is business figure Liz Bilney.

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There are also two groups advocating that the UK remain in the EU:

Britain Stronger in Europe is fronted by Tory peer and former Marks & Spencer chief executive, Sir Stuart Rose, with Will Straw as executive director. Former prime ministers John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown back the campaign group, along with a number of cross-party supporters including former shadow business secretary Chuka Umunna and Green MP Caroline Lucas.

British Influence was set up in 2012 and is run by EU political commentator Peter Wilding. It has former ministers Kenneth Clarke, Peter Mandelson and Danny Alexander as co-presidents.

Thursday 14 April

In the run-up to the vote, there is a 10-week campaigning period that starts on 14 April during which rules on campaigning, spending and finances apply. The Electoral Commission is yet to publish a timetable showing the precise dates and deadlines for the referendum.



Anyone can spend up to £10,000 on campaigning for a referendum, but those wanting to spend more than that sum must register with the commission.

As well as individuals who are registered on the UK or Gibraltar electoral roll, a wide range of organisations can register as campaigners, including registered political parties, companies, trade unions, building societies, limited liability partnerships, charities and friendly, industrial or provident societies.

However, in regard to charities, the commission says: “Referendum campaigning or political activity must be undertaken by a charity only in the context of supporting the delivery of its charitable purposes.”

All registered campaigners must have a “responsible person” who must ensure financial rules are observed. For a political party that person will be the registered treasurer.

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Donations or loans can only be accepted from “permissable sources” as defined under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. Donations are defined as “money, goods, property or services” worth more than £500. Anything with a value of £500 or less is not classed as a donation.

Thursday 5 May

Elections for devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be held, along with the vote to decide’s London mayor and for control of many councils in England.

The government decided not to hold the EU referendum on the same day, but the SNP has argued that campaigning will still conflict with the Scottish election.

Thursday 23 June

Millions of voters will cast ballots to answer the question: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

July and beyond

If a majority vote to leave, the UK could do so two years after notifying the European Council of its intention. However, the process would not be simple and would still involve “complex and probably lengthy negotiations”, according to a parliamentary briefing paper (PDF).



