Current clashes are probably not in preparation of an all out Kiev offensive but a resumption of full scale war is nonetheless inevitable - the extent of the failure of the powers in Kiev is such that they need war as an alibi

Please read this report and watch this one.

Bottom line: this situation is very VERY tense.

Listening to Kiev government propaganda, this sounds like a preparatory attack for an imminent “reconquista” of Donbass, but this is not necessarily so.

My own evaluation is that this is probably not a prelude to a massive attack of the Ukraine side, but this is definitely an attempt to provoke Russia and sabotage any ongoing negotiations while giving the Empire a reason to demand an extension of the sanctions.

I say that because according to many reports the Ukrainians are now extremely frightened of the Novorussians: twice already, their counter-attacks were stopped (Minsk 1 and Minsk 2) at the last moment, but nobody believes that a Minsk 3 will happen. In other words, if the government side attack it will be taking a huge risk. I might be wrong, but my sense is that they will try to delay the (otherwise inevitable) moment when they will have to launch their last attack.

Europe and the OSCE are taking the typical spineless attitude towards these events. The OSCE is reluctantly reporting that the Ukronazis have brought back a lot of their heavy weapons and that civilians are being killed every day. The EU is strenuously looking the other way.

It is pretty clear that Kerry, Nuland & Co got nothing out of Lavrov or Putin and that “punitive escalation” is the US response to the Russian refusal to budge.

Officially, the Russians are sticking to their original stance. However, I am also sensing a change in tone. There are now public discussion about the need to gather the Federation Council to re-authorize Putin to take military action in the Ukraine if needed. The consensus seems to be that since official Kiev signed M2A it now has to abide by it and that no “M3A” or any other negotiations will take place. Some very senior politicians have indicated that if Kiev attacks again “all bets are off” or, to use the favorite US expression “all options are on the table”.

I am increasingly getting a feeling that Russia will now oppose any other kind of “efforts” or negotiations. Ukrainian suggestions that this or that new idea has to be discussed are summarily dismissed in Moscow. The Russians seem to have concluded that they have the Ukrainians, the EU and the USA exactly where they want them to be and that the best thing to do now is to wait.

In other words, neither the reigning powers in Kiev nor their US patrons are going to get anything out of Russia at this point. I believe that they understand that. Worse (for them): time is running out and the Ukrainian economy has essentially collapsed and is for all practical purpose in a state of default (the Rada’s vote to allow Yatsenyuk to chose which creditors to pay – or not – is, essentially, an admission of bankruptcy).

Barring a miracle of some kind, Kiev will simply have to attack as a war or, better (from their point of view) a Russian “invasion” (which would be a liberation, of course) is now the only and last option left to cover up the total collapse not only of the US Ukrainian policy but also of the entire “Independent Ukraine” project.

Of course, a major false flag is also a very real option.

The next couple of weeks will be very, very dangerous.