September 4, 2018 - Florida Governor's Race Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Big Gender And Racial Gaps

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The Florida governor's race is too close to call, with 50 percent of likely voters for Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, and 47 percent for U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, the Republican, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





There are wide gender and racial gaps, as men back DeSantis 52 - 45 percent, while women back Gillum 55 - 42 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. White voters go Republican by a narrow 52 - 45 percent, as black voters go Democratic 93 - 2 percent. Hispanic voters go 56 percent for DeSantis and 43 percent for Gillum.





Republicans back DeSantis 92 - 6 percent, as Democrats back Gillum 93 - 3 percent. Independent voters go to Gillum 55 - 42 percent.





Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.





Gillum gets a 46 - 33 percent favorability rating, while DeSantis gets a split 45 - 43 percent favorability rating.





Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a slightly negative 47 - 51 percent job approval rating.





"Mayor Andrew Gillum came out of his upset victory in the Florida Democratic primary with a head of steam," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"That momentum shows itself as Gillum hits 50 percent in a neck-and-neck match-up with Republican U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for the four-year lease on the governor's mansion."





"Neither man was well-known before their primaries, but since then the race has become a center of political attention in the state."





"Now, 97 of voters say they will vote for one of the two men, a highly unusual situation this far from the actual voting. Just as unusual, more than 90 percent of Gillum and DeSantis voters say they will not change their minds and are dead set in supporting the candidate they now favor," Brown added.





There is little "Trump effect" in the Florida governor's race as 22 percent of voters say their decision in the race will be more to express support for the president and 24 percent say their vote for governor will be more to express opposition. But 51 percent say Trump is not an important factor in the governor's race.





The economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, 23 percent of Florida likely voters say, with 14 percent each for immigration and health care, 13 percent for gun policy, 12 percent for the environment and 10 percent for education.





Florida likely voters are divided on whether they like DeSantis' positions on issues, as 47 percent say yes and 45 percent say no.





Voters like DeSantis as a person 40 - 33 percent.





By a narrow 46 - 42 percent, voters like Gillum's positions on issues and like him as a person 49 - 13 percent.





From August 30 - September 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 785 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Gillum 50% 6% 93% 55% 45% 55% 49% 40% DeSantis 47 92 3 42 52 42 50 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - DK/NA 3 2 4 2 3 3 1 4 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Gillum 37% 52% 45% 93% 43% DeSantis 61 45 52 2 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 2 3 2 5 1

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Gillum DeSantis Mind made up 94% 94% 93% Might change 6 6 5 DK/NA 1 1 1

2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 46% 10% 84% 47% 42% 50% 44% 36% Unfavorable 33 62 4 31 38 28 37 37 Hvn't hrd enough 19 27 11 19 18 20 18 25 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 32% 46% 40% 84% 51% Unfavorable 47 29 37 4 36 Hvn't hrd enough 19 24 22 10 13 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1

3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 87% 6% 39% 50% 40% 47% 51% Unfavorable 43 6 81 45 38 47 46 38 Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 12 14 11 11 6 10 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 56% 43% 49% 5% 58% Unfavorable 36 47 42 66 31 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 8 26 11 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 -

10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 47% 89% 7% 42% 52% 43% 49% 55% Disapprove 51 9 93 54 46 55 49 44 DK/NA 2 2 - 4 2 2 2 - WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 60% 47% 53% 15% 54% Disapprove 39 52 46 85 39 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 6

11. Will your vote in this year's election for governor be more to express support for President Trump, more to express opposition to President Trump, or will President Trump not be an important factor in your vote?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 22% 49% 4% 13% 23% 22% 22% 27% Opposition 24 3 48 25 22 26 28 20 Not important factor 51 47 44 58 53 49 48 52 DK/NA 3 1 4 3 2 4 3 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 29% 22% 25% 2% 36% Opposition 19 28 24 26 23 Not important factor 51 48 49 64 40 DK/NA 2 3 2 8 1

13. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, health care, education, race relations, the environment, gun policy, or immigration?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 23% 34% 10% 23% 27% 18% 24% 21% Taxes 6 9 3 5 5 6 5 7 Health care 14 8 22 13 12 16 11 15 Education 10 5 13 10 8 11 9 4 Race relations 3 1 5 4 2 4 3 2 Environment 12 4 19 12 11 13 18 13 Gun policy 13 7 14 19 17 10 11 15 Immigration 14 25 7 11 13 16 15 17 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 4 4 6 3 3 5 3 4 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Economy 32% 16% 23% 14% 21% Taxes 6 6 6 2 12 Health care 8 16 13 20 16 Education 6 7 7 26 11 Race relations 1 3 2 8 3 Environment 13 17 16 3 5 Gun policy 15 11 13 17 14 Immigration 15 17 16 5 16 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 3 4 4 4 1

14. In general, do you like Ron DeSantis's positions on issues, or not?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Like positions 47% 87% 7% 42% 50% 43% 49% 51% No 45 6 85 48 41 49 45 38 DK/NA 8 7 7 10 9 8 6 11 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Like positions 56% 46% 51% 15% 55% No 35 47 41 71 42 DK/NA 9 7 8 14 3

15. In general, do you like Andrew Gillum's positions on issues, or not?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Like positions 46% 4% 86% 51% 42% 50% 43% 39% No 42 81 5 39 47 37 46 46 DK/NA 12 15 8 11 11 12 10 14 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Like positions 33% 47% 41% 90% 38% No 54 39 46 8 51 DK/NA 13 13 13 2 12

16. In general, do you like Ron DeSantis as a person, or not?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Like as person 40% 73% 12% 35% 44% 37% 41% 43% No 33 4 67 33 29 38 35 31 DK/NA 26 23 21 32 28 25 24 25 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Like as person 47% 38% 42% 19% 53% No 25 41 34 50 26 DK/NA 28 21 25 31 21

17. In general, do you like Andrew Gillum as a person, or not?