

Posted by

Sam Gregory ,

March 19, 2014 Email

Sam Gregory

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Despite the lack of any real indication as to where he will end up the subject of Hoilett's international future is still a major topic of debate among supporters of both Canada and Jamaica. This makes sense as the Canada Soccer Association confirmed this is an issue they are following closely as well. Stephen Hart was supposedly texting Hoilett multiple times a week while he was still the manager. Upon Benito Floro's appointment there was speculation that he may be the one to convince Hoilett to finally make the jump.



Floro immediately put a stop to these rumours saying he doesn't have any interest in chasing players who don't want to play for Canada. Despite Floro's comments the CSA are surely still in contact with Hoilett and waiting on his decision. This begs the question of whether or not Junior Hoilett is worth the fuss?



Hoilett, now twenty-three, was sold from Blackburn Rovers to QPR in 2012 and QPR were immediately relegated from the Premier League in his first season at the club. Now in his second season with QPR playing in the Championship it is important to look at the player Hoilett is today and not the eighteen-year-old with loads of potential upside he was when this speculation first began.



For Hoilett to be worth the pandering and pursuit on behalf of the CSA he would have to be a player that fits a hole that no one currently in the squad is able to or provide a significant upgrade over one of the team's current players.



It turns out that upon closer examination Hoilett's performances this season are almost identical to a player who has already been cap-tied by Canada, DC United's Kyle Porter.



Initially it sounds almost ridiculous to compare a player who Canada has pursued relentlessly for five years and was touted as the potential saviour of the national team with a forward on the worst team in MLS last year. However, the numbers speak for themselves. Comparing Porter's 2013 season at DC United with Hoilett's current 2013-14 campaign at Queen's Park Rangers their numbers are shockingly similar.



An important assumption to make for this analysis is that the level of competition in MLS and the English Championship is comparable. Looking at various league ranking systems and the players in each league this seems to be a fairly reasonable assumption.



The numbers below are all normalized to per 90 minutes in order to remove any playing time biases, although the raw numbers are fairly similar as well with both Porter and Hoilett seeing a fair amount of time on the pitch. Key Passes are passes that directly result in a shot and chances are key passes plus shots. Hoilett's numbers are in blue and Porter's in red.



In the key offensive metrics of goals, shots, key passes and chances per 90 minutes Hoilett and Porter are almost identical. The one key difference in terms of attacking statistics is that Porter failed to register an assist last season, but this is something that could easily have just been down to the quality of teammates around him. In a similar manner the difference in defensive contributions may be more to do with the expanded defensive role Porter was forced to play at DC United.



The point of this comparison is not to say that Porter can single handily rescue the Canadian National Team or that Canada should ignore Junior Hoilett completely. What this analysis suggests is that the Canadian coaching staff and supporters need to temper their expectations with Junior Hoilett. On current form he will give similar production levels going forward as Kyle Porter.



Porter is twenty-four, only a year older than Hoilett, and is still a viable option for the Canadian national team in the future, but were Porter in a similar uncertain situation about his international career there would almost certainly not be anywhere near the amount of fanfare surrounding his decision.



The Junior Hoilett of 2014 is a decent player, playing at a decent level but he is not the player Canadians thought he would become back in 2010. It is important not to let what Hoilett could have been cloud the player Hoilett is today, which is about on par with current Canadian international Kyle Porter.