Leo Varadkar: EU is open to new Brexit deal if Boris Johnson drops red lines and offers concessions Exclusive: Taoiseach also set out possibility of either UK cancelling Brexit entirely by revoking Article 50 or seeking to delay it again

The Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar set out the possibility of a new Brexit deal if Boris Johnson was to alter Theresa May’s Brexit red lines — but warned that even if that happened, a deal is highly unlikely before 31 October.

Read More: Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar speak about Brexit but fail to see eye to eye on backstop issue The i politics newsletter cut through the noise Email address is invalid Email address is invalid Thank you for subscribing! Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription.

Mrs May’s key red lines were that the UK would leave the single market, would leave the customs union, would end free movement and would bring an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in Britain.

Mr Varadkar said: “We ended up with the withdrawal agreement and the backstop because of all the red lines that were drawn up by the British Government.

“Now if we’re going back to square one and those red lines are being changed, then we’ve something to talk about.”

Brexit concessions

In an interview with i in Belfast yesterday, the Taoiseach also set out the possibility of either the UK cancelling Brexit entirely by revoking Article 50 or once again seeking to delay it.

But both of those options are expressly contrary to the Prime Minister’s firm commitment to implement Brexit by October 31.

Mr Varadkar’s comments came as the EU sources have reportedly indicated that they now believe that a no-deal Brexit is the most likely outcome of the protracted negotiation with the UK.

Last night the DUP’s Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson responded to Mr Varadkar’s three propositions by reprising Margaret Thatcher’s famous response to proposals for more European integration. Mr Wilson said that Mr Johnson should tell the Toaiseach: “No, no, no.”

Irish border row

Mr Varadkar made clear that Ireland was not prepared to renegotiate the backstop – the insurance policy which it insists is crucial to ensure an open border on the island of Ireland but which unionists have overwhelmingly opposed because it would erect barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

When asked if no-deal was the most likely outcome, he said: “I think that as time goes on, it becomes more likely. I’m not sure at what point you say it becomes more than 50% likely or not – and I’m not sure what that necessarily achieves anyway because we’ve always been preparing for the possibility of no-deal, and been doing that for years now.

“But I’m certain it can be avoided.”

Mr Varadkar set out three means by which no deal could be avoided: an agreement with the EU being ratified by the Commons; an extension to again delay Brexit; or “if parliament and the government were decide to revoke article 50”. He insisted that “if no deal happens on 31 October, it will be as a consequence of decision made in London”.

Future talks with PM

The Taoiseach said he wanted to “sit down with Prime Minister Johnson and talk through with him how we got to this point because I think there’s a bit of an effort to make out that the withdrawal agreement, including the backstop, was an invention of the Dublin government or imposed by the European Union. That’s not the case. There’s an attempt to make out that it’s undemocratic too but it’s been agreed by 28 governments, including the UK government, and the European Parliament, all of which followed democratic procedures.

“What I’d like to do is talk through how we got to that point. Our analysis is different – we ended up with the withdrawal agreement and the backstop because of all the red lines that were drawn up by the British Government. Now if we’re going back to square one and those red lines are being changed, then we’ve something to talk about.”

However, playing down any hopes of a substantial shift by Mr Johnson leading to a sudden deal which would see the UK leave at the end of October, he said: “It’s very difficult to see how you could conclude a different agreement between now and October 31st when the last one took two years to negotiate.”

Pressed on whether, even in the event of Mr Johnson changing the UK’s red lines there could be a deal by 31 October, he said: “I think it becomes extremely difficult. But again, October 31st is a deadline that was agreed between the EU and the UK.

“The European Union is saying that if there’s a good reason we can do a further extension.”

Tariff changes

When asked if he knew what would happen at the Irish border on 1 November if the UK was to leave without a deal, Mr Varadkar said: “Well, I suppose that’s still something that we’re still trying to work out in our discussions with the European Commission.

“What will certainly happen is that if the UK leaves without a deal and reverts to the WTO rules, then yes, we will have to impose WTO rules…that does involve tariffs on imports, both north-south and also east-west and it does involve businesses having to file customs forms and tax forms and so on.

“And we’ll have to have some form of checks somewhere. Obviously we don’t want to have them on the border and our preference would be to have them at the ports of entry, at business level and random checks too. But all of that would still have to be worked out – both in our own discussions with the European Commission and also in discussions with the UK government as to where they would carry out checks too because there’s an implication there that they wouldn’t carry out checks but if you’re going to revert to WTO rules you do have to.”

When asked if businesses could at least have certainty that any checks will not be able to be imposed immediately and therefore trade will not halt on 1 November, Mr Varadkar did not directly answer the question. he said: “Well, I think the imposition of tariffs would be a pretty big change.”

No-deal Brexit

Pressed on when those checks would begin, he said: “If the UK decides to leave without a deal and reverts to WTO rules and leaves without a deal, it would happen immediately – that’s my understanding of the legal position anyway, and it’s not something that we want; it’s something that we want to avoid.

“But if that’s the decision that’s made, to leave without a deal and revert to WTO rules, then WTO rules would apply and they would apply immediately. So you’d have the tariff barriers, which is cost, and you’d have all the other non-tariff barriers to trade as they call them – having to fill in all the forms, having to pre-declare and so on.”

He said that even a no-deal Brexit or a withdrawal agreement without the backstop would not bring certainty for businesses because it would be “just kicking the fundamental questions about the Irish border and about trade between the UK and Ireland into the implementation phase or the transition phase…so you end up with another two or three years of business uncertainty and that’s not a desirable outcome”.

Responding to the argument often made by many Brexiteers and unionists that if the UK and Ireland agreed not to erect a hard border then that can be avoided, Mr Varadkar alluded to his country’s willingness to ensure that border checks take place, saying that “from our side we would have to uphold the integrity of the single market and the customs union”.

He also said that “the idea that the UK could withdraw from the European Union, join the WTO and then the first thing the UK would do would be to break the WTO rules – it’s not a basis for a future trade policy or free trade agreements with anybody, really.”