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Past Fantasy Outlooks

Stammer has overcome two serious injuries and a life-threatening blood clot, and is still on a Hall-of-Fame career trajectory. He may not be the top scorer on the Bolts anymore, but remains one of the NHL's best snipers. And for the first time in his 10-year career, Stamkos' playmaking totals (59 assists) in 2017-18 dramatically outstripped his goals (27) -- playing with Nikita Kucherov will do that for a guy. Those 59 assists were 10th in the NHL; his 86 points were 12th. Stammer should return to the top-10 scoring list and the Bolts figure to be among the elite of the East again in 2018-19. Stamkos may no longer be an automatic first-round pick, but he's still fantasy gold.

Are the Bolts still Stammer's team? For the third time in the last four years, Stamkos suffered a major injury that derailed his season. This time, he needed season-ending surgery to repair a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee, the same leg that needed a metal rod three years before. And for the second straight season, Nikita Kucherov finished on top of the team's scoring list, a spot that will be his for the foreseeable future. Stamkos is still an elite sniper and his patented rip from the left circle still confounds opposing netminders, but the captain's best offensive days are behind him. Don't get us wrong -- Stammer will still contend for the Rocket Richard trophy, but he's more likely to settle in with upwards of 75 points than 95. That tally would still put him in the NHL's top-10, but it should slip him out of the first round of fantasy drafts.

It took less than 48 hours of free agency for Stammer to ask his agent to get general manager Stevie Y on the horn. It seems the grass isn't always greener on the other side of the proverbial fence, despite rumors that both the Sabres and Leafs offered him $11 million per season. Stamkos wants to win a Cup with the Bolts, and maybe he will – the team is strong. But re-signing in Tampa Bay means another season of reduced production. The team deploys its best wingers – Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat – on the top line with Tyler Johnson. That's good for them, but bad for Stammer. He gets rising young wingers Jonathan Drouin and Vladislav Namestnikov, neither of whom have consolidated their offensive micro-bursts into a full season of excellence yet. Or he'll be hamstrung with the declining Valtteri Filppula or Ryan Callahan. Stamkos will get points on the power play, but they will be harder to come by at even strength, regardless of his wingmen. Plan for another season of less than point-per-game production, albeit with 35-to-40 goals.

Is Stamkos still part of the 'great debate'? Sure, he still has the talent, but short-term, he just doesn’t have the production – other than goals – to put him in the conversation with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, or even John Tavares and Tyler Seguin. Don’t be so shocked. The emergence of the Tampa’s Triplet Line spread out the offensive wealth last season and helped the team get all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. But Stamkos finished the regular season tied with Tyler Johnson for the team lead in points with 72. That’s a fantastic output for Johnson, but a resounding ‘meh’ for Stammer and his fantasy owners. Sure, those 43 goals were second in the NHL in a season that saw an offensive downturn in general. But he’ll be hard pressed to crack the 75-point mark this year. Stamkos is still first-round talent, but let someone else snag him early if there are more well-rounded stars available.

Stamkos or Sidney Crosby? That question isn't an easy one in a lot of leagues. The Bolts center is an elite franchise player, but that's stating the obvious. He might have won the scoring title last season had he not snapped his tibia in a game on Nov. 11. Prior to that, he had 23 points -- including 14 goals -- in 16 games. That pace that would have netted him 50 goals and 118 points in 82 games, an Art Ross trophy, and might just have changed the complexion of the Rocket Richard competition. It also would have likely changed the seeding for the Eastern Conference playoffs as well. Your format and scoring categories will dictate whom you snag at the top of your draft, but we'd take goals over assists every time if all other things were equal. Count on him for 50 goals and 95-to-100 points and the cornerstone of your league champion's team.

On March 18 this past season, Stamkos became the fourth youngest NHLer to hit 200 career goals; he did it at 23 years and 41 days. Who was faster? Not Sid the Kid or Alexander the Gr8. Try Hall of Famers Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Dale Hawerchuk. That's mighty fine company. Stammer is clearly the NHL's premier sniper these days and he'll vie for the league goal title again this year. He'll have to adjust to increased defensive pressure now that Vinny Lecavalier has disappeared from the Florida landscape. But that won't hold him down long. Fifty goals and 95 points are money in the bank. He needs to be off the board right after that guy from Cole Harbour.

Mirror, mirror on the wall -- who's the best fantasy player of all? Stamkos' name is in that debate along with Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, and you certainly can't go wrong taking Stammer with the top pick. He won the Rocket Richard Trophy for his 60 goals last season and finished second in the Art Ross race with 97 points. And he could easily win both this year -- his first 100-plus point season is on the way. Our only quibble? We'd love to see an improvement in power-play production, but that's a truly minor issue. Stamkos is a stud. 'Nuf said.

Sure, last season's early chatter that Stammer might get 50 goals in 50 games was a tad premature. And sure, his torrid early start tailed off dramatically in the second half. But he's still a fantasy stud whose sniping ability made him the youngest player EVER to hit 100 goals ... yes, younger than even some guys named Gretzky, Crosby, Ovechkin, Lemieux and Richard. He'll be off the board in the top three of every single fantasy league on the planet and he'll reward you with a 50/100 season ... this year and the next. And the next. And the ... you get the picture.

Stamkos is one of the NHL's elite young studs. But he's in for a small step backwards this season. Don't get us wrong -- this guy has it all... clinical sniping ability, elite vision, superb speed, sublime passing skills and tremendous smarts. But there will be a little less ice time to go around now that the Bolts have gotten deeper up front. And there will be a little less time and space for him to operate when he is out there -- Rocket Richard trophy winners tend to face the opposition's best checkers. He'll still earn you better than a point-per-game. But his next 50-goal season will likely come in 2011-12, not this one.

It was a tale of two halves for Stammer last season. The first was a write off; the second was a foreshadowing of stardom to come. His chemistry with wingers Ryan Malone and Marty St. Louis was palpable, and if reunited, we think Stamkos will flirt with 30 goals and perhaps as many as 70 points. And he doesn’t turn 20 until February. Keeper leaguers will need to target him early in drafts this year. His upside is 45 goals and 95-100 points, and that day will come sooner rather than later.

Yes, he’s talented. And yes, he’s going to be a star. But it isn’t going to happen this season. Barring a complete meltdown, Stamkos is going to be the team’s second line center alongside Radim Vrbata and Ryan Malone. He’s a beautiful skater but he needs to fill out, and it’s huge jump to be a stud teenager in the NHL. He’ll vie for the Calder trophy but don’t blow your brains out on draft day unless you're in a keeper league. He’ll probably deliver about 50 points this year.