Florida Rep. Patrick Murphy (D)

The long-awaited air wars in Florida's ridiculously late Democratic primary are finally beginning—and this being Florida, they're of course getting off to a weird start … some 700 miles away. The NRSC is running a minute-long spot on cable TV, backed by a small $45,000 buy, highlighting a recent CBS Miami report that sought to pick apart Rep. Patrick Murphy's claims about his biography. The most bizarre thing about the ad is not the clip of someone trying to flush a smartphone down a toilet at the 41-second mark but rather the fact that it's airing in Washington, DC—supposedly to "sow doubt among donors and operatives about whether Murphy is worth their investment" and increased the chances of Rep. Alan Grayson winning the Democratic nomination.

But most donors don't live in the District, and more to the point, what Democratic operatives are seriously going to be swayed by a Republican ad? This sort of ratfucking might work with voters, especially those who don't pay attention to (or don't care about) the disclosure lines at the end of advertisements, but the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC aren't going to fall for this most feeble of Jedi mind tricks. Indeed, both groups say they have "no plans to drop some $20 million in television reservations for the state." So, nice try?

The far more effective ads, of course, are going to be those that actually air in the Sunshine State, where polls have consistently showed a plurality of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Murphy, however, has a huge cash advantage—$5.6 million versus $430,000 at the end of March—and he's putting it to work. Grayson is moving forward with a "six-figure" buy that was supposed to begin Thursday, according to Politico, but no ad appears to have surfaced yet. Murphy, by contrast, has reportedly booked $1.7 million in TV time for the final four weeks of the campaign leading up to the Aug. 30 primary. Even if Grayson devotes every last cent he has to advertising, Murphy will far outspend him.

The GOP primary, by contrast, isn't looking very exciting, despite our early hopes for hijinks. A new poll, this one from TelOpinion Research for the Associated Industries of Florida (a state affiliate of the reactionary National Association of Manufacturers), finds Sen. Marco Rubio crushing wealthy businessman Carlos Beruff 71-7. That's the fourth survey in a row with Rubio over 50 percent and Beruff down in the dumps. Yes, Beruff has supposedly said he's ready to shell out many of his millions, but he has just two months to make a very difficult case to Republican voters.