Survey finds conservative Millennials favor Carly Fiorina

Collin Brennan | Christopher Newport University

Despite her falling poll numbers, businesswomen Carly Fiorina has one group of GOP voters in her corner.

G2 Analytics, an analytics platform that allows users to give real-time feedback during live or recorded events, and the College Republican National Committee conducted a web-based focus group to measure 328 Millennial Republican primary voters’ reactions during the Nov. 10 debate hosted by Fox Business Network.

Using a buzzer, participants indicate whether a candidate's answer made them "more likely" or "less likely" to vote for that particular candidate. What's more, participants answered “flash poll” questions during commercial breaks.

The results indicated conservative Millennials are 80.8% “more likely” to support after Fiorina after the fourth debate -- the highest of any Republican candidate.

In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, Fiorina and Sen. Rand Paul – who are ranked seventh and eighth, respectively in a number of national polls -- ranked first and second, respectively, among conservative Millennials following the fourth GOP debate.

Quentin Kidd, Ph. D., the director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy and vice provost at Christopher Newport University, doesn’t find Fiorina’s popularity among conservative Millennials surprising.

“Fiorina debates well, that is really clear, and these are likely Republican Millennial voters and, in my mind, they are attracted to strong debate performances,” says Kidd. “Millennials, in general, are interested in diverse candidates, and they are probably attracted to Fiorina because she is a woman and a strong and confident one at that.”

Another big takeaway from the data: how little front-runner Donald Trump stood out for conservative Millennials. Trump ranked seventh among Republican Millennials at 70.4% -- only ahead of the former Ohio governor John Kasich by 4.5% .

“Trump’s support is built on the Tea Party movement and the white middle class,” says Kidd. According to Gallup, people under the age of 30 make up just 15% of the tea party movement.

“The Tea Party movement never attracted a large number of conservative Millennials. It was mostly made up of middle age white voters. So, to me, it is no surprise to see Trump at the lower end of the spectrum,” says Kidd.

Despite Fiorina’s success and Trump’s shortcomings with younger voters, the data indicates most conservative Millennials have yet to commit to a candidate, with 57.14% saying they haven’t decided who to vote for in the primary elections.

“I think this reflects the volatility in the Republican primary,” says Kidd. “When you have 14 candidates it is really hard for people to feel firm about who they are going to vote for. I am actually surprised to see that many people who have decided who they are going to vote for at this early point in the process. “

Dr. Kidd believes Millennials indecisiveness mirrors that of all Republican voters. And, according to Kidd, that indecision can favor a certain type of GOP candidate.

“I think it favors an establishment Republican,” says Kidd. “If you have six out of 10 conservative Millennials who say they don’t know who they are going to vote for, It means they are not comfortable with those who are currently leading the pack, principally Donald Trump.

“Conservative Millennials are essentially saying ‘we don’t like who the leaders are’.”

Although the Iowa Caucus is three months away, Kidd thinks there is still some room for candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to catch the two front-runners in Carson and Trump.

“In the end, it’s going to be an establishment Republican who has the money to go the distance,” says Kidd. “The candidate who can speak about basic economic issues and be optimistic with that message, be competent in foreign policy, and avoid getting mired in social issues is going to be the candidate that conservative Millennials -- and the general election population -- are going to be attracted to. But that is a fine thread to weave.”



Collin Brennan is a student at Christopher Newport University and a fall 2015 USA TODAY Collegiate Correspondent.

This story originally appeared on the USA TODAY College blog, a news source produced for college students by student journalists. The blog closed in September of 2017.