As we mark the 15th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, one of the shrewdest observations this week came from Spectator columnist Daniel McCarthy, who suggests it’s “not surprising that the Iraq War faction of the G.O.P. should today find common cause with mainstream liberals: this is the Bush-Clinton coalition of 2003 reborn.” Iraq does indeed continue to shape everything. This writer happens to feel that the torture of detainees in U.S. care—what Antonio Taguba, the general who brought the Abu Ghraib scandal to light, referred to as “an assault on American ideals”—was perhaps an even greater disgrace than the loss of life in Iraq. But McMarthy’s point stands. The factions of 2003, at least one of which has immersed itself into a warm bath of selective amnesia, help to clarify the factions of our present political moment. And the scale of death and loss resulting from that war helps to put Donald Trump’s presidency in perspective. Compared to Iraq, none of the sins of the Trump White House amount to much. In fact, Trump starts to look almost good.

Any director of photography knows that when you zoom in on something in motion it increases the sense of speed. Observing the Trump White House daily, as journalists or political obsessives tend to do, has a similar effect. Missteps and blunders happen daily. Mayhem rules. The president says horrible things and tweets horrible things. Special counsel Robert Mueller continues his probing and prodding. Porn stars are threatening to divulge secrets. Someone high up in the White House is leaking material directly from the daily presidential briefing, a remarkable betrayal. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump seem to be getting purged, and staff turnover doesn’t show any signs of ending soon. No one quite understands what Trump’s game is with North Korea or with anything else. And there are probably a dozen more woes that I am forgetting.

But in the big picture, when the camera pulls back, the movement slows. In fact, with the assistance of some strong liquor, you might even argue that things are going O.K. for this White House. Trump has gotten some big tax cuts through. He has seated a Supreme Court justice. He has followed through on protectionist promises by imposing steel tariffs. He has rolled back a number of initiatives of the Obama White House that conservatives didn’t like. The economy is strong. And, most important, he has, so far, kept us out of a new war. Many Americans, i.e. Trump supporters, like this deal. Many others feel mostly unbothered by it. If that latter group is large enough, Trump’s political fortunes could prove surprisingly favorable.

To get a sense of proportion, review how often the White House of Bill Clinton was consumed by stupid drama during its first term, particularly its first two years. Not a week went by, it seemed, without some potential scandal or misstep (Whitewater, Vince Foster, Travelgate, airport haircut, and on and on and on), and it was in those two years that Kenneth Starr was appointed as a special counsel, setting the groundwork for troubles years later. But voters paid very little attention to this. They noticed the more substantive and long-term stories: that President Clinton wanted to lift the ban on gays in the military (he failed), that he wanted to restrict ownership of assault weapons (he succeeded), and that he wanted to remake the healthcare system (he failed). Fairly or not (mostly unfairly, but that’s just my take), they punished him for these things at the midterm polls in 1994, when Republicans gained control of the House in a tsunami, not for unproven Whitewater sins or past lechery. When the economy continued to regain steam and Clinton started to triangulate on policy, voters gave him another term. They knew he might be a bit of a rascal, they just didn't care. Of course, on personal vices and baggage, Trump appears to exceed Clinton by an order of magnitude, but the pattern is otherwise familiar.