So much is going on in UK politics at the moment that it is hard to recall that just a month ago the new Party formed by breakaway CON and LAB MPs, Change UK, was talking about it taking over the Lib Dems. From reports at the time it considered itself to be the powerful force and were treating Cable’s party as almost supplicants in any relationship.

The new grouping didn’t contest the local elections on May 2nd but their first big opportunity to show their electoral potency comes next Thursday in the Euro elections. The party is fielding a full slate of candidates across the country but if the polling is anything like on the mark then the chances are that it is going to be a struggle to win a single MEP.

Sporting Index has just opened a range of spread markets on Thursdays election and the main one, how many seats each party will win in the bottles Parliament, is shown above. As can be seen there is one big emission from the list of that is Change UK. It is extraordinary they they weren’t even regarded as being in the running.

You can understand this. It doesn’t have any MEP incumbents seeking re-election, it has yet to build up an activist network and it has seen poll ratings down to just 2 percent.

As PB regulars will know I love spread betting on the outcome of elections. The job is that the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. It is not for the faint-hearted. You “buy” and “sell” positions as though they were stocks and shares in this case with the final level being the number of MEPs that are elected.

At the last general election I “sold” CON seats at the 393 level. They ended up with 318 seats and my winnings were 75 times (the gap between the ell level and what happened) my stake. Be careful, though you can lose.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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