In close race, third-party candidates could tilt election

By Jane Prendergast, The Cincinnati Enquirer | NationalDesk

CINCINNATI -- They can't possibly win on Election Day, but third-party candidates definitely could matter in the outcome of Ohio's already close presidential election.

Voters in Ohio will find five candidates on the ballot other than President Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. If Obama and Romney are tied, as some recent polls have shown, even 1% of votes cast in this battleground state for a third candidate could mean the difference in winning Ohio.

No Republican candidate has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. And no candidate has won the presidency without Ohio since John F. Kennedy won in 1960.

How much of an impact could a third-party candidate have?

"Perhaps enough," said Rob Alexander, chairman of the history, political science and justice department at Ohio Northern University. "Obviously, the race looks like it's going to be really, really tight. The question is: does (the third-party candidate) peel off each candidate equally?"

Roughly 8 million people are registered to vote in Ohio. Turnout estimates vary. More than 5 million Ohioans voted in 2008.

History shows the impact of the more obscure candidates. In 2000, when Democrat Al Gore lost to George W. Bush, the loss was attributed in part to Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, who took votes from Gore in Florida and New Hampshire, both swing states.

And we can't forget Ross Perot. He didn't win either, but he got 18% of the popular vote in 1992, 8% in 1996.

Votes for a third-party candidate aren't wasted, Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson points out on his website. Five percent of the vote "ends two-party abuse" and lets a candidate with that much of the vote qualify for federal funding. No third-party candidate did that in 2008.

An Ohio News Organization poll by Ohio's eight largest newspapers found Obama and Romney tied at 49% last week. In that poll, 1% of likely voters who responded said they planned to vote for another candidate.

A CNN poll released Friday found that when the third-party candidates' names were added to the questioning, Obama stood at 48% , Romney at 44% , with Johnson at 4% , Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2% and Virgil Goode, the Constitution Party candidate, with less than half of one percent.

"It could be razor thin," Alexander said of the winning candidate's margin.

The third-party candidates are another reason the main two campaigns are focused on getting voters to the polls, he said. Mobilizing the decided voters and those who have "marginally decided" helps offset the amount a third-party candidate cuts into Obama's or Romney's totals.

Third-party candidates

Five presidential candidates -- other than President Obama and Mitt Romney -- will appear on the Ohio ballot:

Jill Stein, Green Party: The centerpiece of the physician's campaign is the Green New Deal, which includes guaranteeing a job to every able American, breaking up big banks and forming state-, federal- and municipal public-owned banks that work as nonprofits.

Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party: A former Republican governor of New Mexico, Johnson campaigns on more transparency in the Federal Reserve, blocking Medicare and Medicaid funds to states to spur them to innovate instead, reassessing the role of the federal government and finding things that can be done more efficiently by the private sector.

Virgil Goode, Constitution Party: He was a congressman from Virginia from 1997 to 2009, first as a Democrat, then as a Republican. Now he's campaigning on ending illegal immigration and reducing legal immigration, supporting English as the official language of the United States, drilling in Alaska and eliminating the Death Tax.

Stewart Alexander, Socialist Party: He aligns himself with the Occupy movement, advocates for expansion of the safety net set out in the New Deal in the 1930s, $100 million investment in electric vehicles and free, quality education from kindergarten through the doctoral level.

Richard Duncan, no party affiliation: He's a real estate agent from Aurora, Ohio. He opposes the auto industry bailout and same-sex marriage, supports offshore drilling and Roe v. Wade. His Federal Jobs and Economic Boost Act would encourage companies to locate in geographic areas that most need jobs.

Six other candidates filed as write-ins.