From the moment the the Republican leadership released its alternative approach to health care reform, critics (including me) pointed out that it was unlikely to make a dent in the number of people without insurance. On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office came out with its preliminary estimates of what the bill will do. And, sure enough, the critics were right. Overall, ten years into implementation, the plan would not significantly change the number of people with health insurance. In all, 17 percent of the legal, non-elderly pouplation--or about 52 million children and working-age people--would still have no coverage.

The Republicans, to be fair, never claimed that their plan would do otherwise. Indeed, the essence of their pitch--again, as discussed previously--is that they focus on cost while Democrats focus on coverage. And the CBO certainly agrees that the Republican plan will reduce premiums. According to the projections, premiums would drop by between 7 and 10 percent for employees of small businesses, between 5 and 8 percent for people buying coverage on their own, and between 0 and 3 percent for workers who get coverage through large employers.

That finding had Republicans like Representative Tom Price crowing on Wednesday.

Giving patients greater control and making specific common sense reforms will lower the cost of health care for all Americans. The Republicans’ straightforward plan will decrease insurance premiums by up to ten percent. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ 2,000-page plan to give Washington more control via tax increases, mandates, bureaucracies, czars, and government-run insurance will not lower costs. We seek to lower costs by giving Americans more control over how they spend their health care dollars, allowing the purchase of coverage across state lines, ending costly lawsuit abuse, and providing important protections for those with pre-existing conditions. In just 200 pages, Republicans have proven that we can improve the portions of our health care system which need fixing without giving Washington control over one-fifth of our economy. Republicans have the answer to lowering health care costs – put patients in charge.

But is that really what the CBO said? Read the full write-up more closely and you’ll see the message was a bit more complicated.