Is it exaggerated?

When will it end?

NEW DELHI: According to global broking firm Goldman Sachs, as of June 2019, the current slowdown has lasted for 18 months, making it is the longest since 2006.More than half of the decline in economic activity has been driven by a consumption slowdown, which appears to be broad-based, with components other than auto contributing more than twice the effect of autos to the total consumption decline, says the brokerage in a report.A State Bank of India (SBI) report says that while stagnant rural wage growth reinforces the slowdown, other factors may be at play in specific sectors. Auto sector slowdown, for instance, may be part of the unfolding global crisis as auto sales in Asia-Pacific too are expected to fall.Similarly, low FMCG volume growth in the last quarter may be due to the unusually high growth in the previous one and also because of a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier (for biscuits and snacks) or natural (beauty products) options, bigger packets (due to e-retailing) or good quality products of unlisted companies.However, the SBI report also says that out of the 33 indicators it tracks, the number of those accelerating has fallen from 17 in March to 9 in June. The principal economic advisor to the government says "the slowdown does not mean economic crisis" and it is "not as bad as the 2008 Lehman crisis."Goldman Sachs expects a moderate pick-up in economic activity by March next year if there is a "substantial improvement in consumer confidence over the course of the year, and a significant easing in domestic financial conditions."The chief of another broking house, however, thinks that a global recession may start "by the end of 2020 or early 2021" and if that happens Indian economy will suffer too.India Ratings, a Fitch group company, said on Wednesday that it expects GDP growth for 2019-20 to tumble to a six-year low at 6.7% instead of 7.3% it had said earlier because band-aid measures will not help the economy in the long term.