Toyota would be forced to halt car production in the UK and BMW could shift production of the Mini to the Netherlands if there is a no-deal Brexit, car manufacturers warned at the Paris Motor Show.

Johan Van Zyl, the chief executive of Toyota Europe, said it would have to temporarily close its Derbyshire plant, which employs about 2,600 people, and its future would be uncertain.

He said: “If there would be any disruption we’d have to close our plant temporarily to make alternative arrangements.

No-deal Brexit 'could halt production at UK Toyota plants' Read more

“In the longer term, if we were to change the logistics it would add more cost and impact on our competitiveness, and of course the future of our operation.”

About 90% of the cars made at the Burnaston plant in Derbyshire are exported to Europe.

BMW could shift production of the Mini to the Netherlands in the event of a hard Brexit, its chief executive said. The German carmaker said it was preparing for the “50-50 chance” of the UK leaving the EU without a deal that would allow the current movement of parts and goods.

The BMW chief executive, Harald Krüger, said on Tuesday he had told the UK prime minister, Theresa May, and EU leaders that a hard Brexit would mean “both sides are losers”.

He said: “We will no longer fulfil trade agreements and then we are forced to build the [Mini] car in the Netherlands.

“Hard Brexit is currently not our main scenario but we are preparing for it. We see a 50-50 chance.”

Q&A What is a hard Brexit? Show Hide A hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook.

His words were echoed by other motor company bosses at the show, with both Daimler and Peugeot expressing concern. Maxime Picat, the European boss of PSA Group, which owns Vauxhall, said that the loss of freedom of movement would “necessarily impact” UK production and could threaten the sustainability of its manufacturing plants in Luton and Ellesmere Port.

Picat said that while PSA had been reinvesting in its UK business, there were limits. “Those limits are customs barriers, and the loss of freedom of movement, for people and goods. If we get to that point, we will be obliged to take measures.

“If we suddenly have to start manufacturing for the UK in the UK, and for Europe in Europe, there will necessarily be an impact on UK production.”

Jaguar Land Rover said it was delaying a decision on whether to build electric cars in the UK until the outcome of a Brexit deal. Speaking in Paris, chief executive Ralf Speth told Reuters: “We haven’t made the decision because we don’t know at the end of the day the final conditions and we also see uncertainty resulting out of the Brexit discussions so we don’t know where we can do the investment best.”

Last month JLR, Britain’s biggest car manufacturer, announced that more than 2,000 staff would move to a three-day week at its West Midlands plant, due to “headwinds” including Brexit and consumer concern about diesel vehicles.

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Unite, UK’s largest union for car workers, called on ministers to “stop gambling with people’s jobs”. The Unite assistant general secretary, Tony Burke, said: “How loud do the alarm bells need to ring before the penny drops with Theresa May and her shambolic government that a hard Brexit or a no-deal Brexit will harm investment and damage the UK car industry?

“The jobs at stake are quality jobs that pay a decent wage and sustain communities and towns across the UK. We need a Brexit deal that protects jobs and secures tariff free access and the frictionless trade which our car industry needs.”

Vehicle prices are expected to rise sharply in the event of no deal, according to Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders forecasts. The UK car industry employs about 186,000 people and has been one of the most vocal sectors in warning about the impacts of Brexit.

• This article was amended on 3 October 2018 because an earlier version said Toyota’s Derbyshire plant employed about 600 people. This has been corrected to 2,600.