The fifth installment in the long running Bourne Identity franchise hits theaters this weekend, but it doesn’t look like its set for a great start.

Jason Bourne can be related to last years Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation in a number of different ways. For starters, they’re both the fifth installment in a long running spy action franchise that serves as a follow up to a reboot after the original trilogy concluded and given a release in the last weekend of July. Other than that, totally different. Rogue Nation may have been seen as a tad bit underwhelming in its opening weekend of $55 million, but it held very well and was able to total with over $190 million domestically and just a hair short of Ghost Protocol worldwide. Rogue Nation was also following up on the goodwill and unexpected success of said fourth installment, while Jason Bourne is following up on 2012’s The Bournce Legacy, a failed attempt at rebooting the franchise with Jeremy Renner as the lead. Oh yeah, the fifth Mission: Impossible film was also set to star Jeremy Renner. Coincidence?

The original expectations for Rogue Nation were at around $60-$70 million, a bit higher than what Jason Bourne is now tracking (around $50-$60 million or so). Considering the mixed reviews and a lack of online buzz, it wouldn’t be surprising if Jason Bourne wound up under $50 million for the weekend, and it could even end up closer to The Bourne Legacy than any of its other predecessors.

Also opening is low budget comedy Bad Moms, which is going after the very underserved summer female audience. This is also a good chance for STX Entertainment to have a solid win, after disappointing results from Hardcore Henry and Free State of Jones likely put their organization on the chopping block. With a budget of just $20 million and strong pre sale tickets, Bad Moms could wind up with over $25 million for the weekend, which would be a huge success. Reviews are also solid, with a 60% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s actually higher than Jason Bourne, surprisingly enough.

Finally, Nerve is getting a wide release as well. The film also carries a $20 million price tag, and is mostly going after the teen audience. The film got a solid start on Wednesday, with a $3.7 million start on opening day. For a non holiday Wednesday start, that’s a good sign, and the film will likely wind up with more than $15 million by Sunday. It’s going to have a tough time holding on with Suicide Squad on the way next weekend, and the Wednesday start was likely done to squeeze a bit more cash out before the real competition sets in. With a solid A- Cinemascore, Nerve should be able to total with more than $40 million domestically.

Among holdovers, Star Trek Beyond will benefit from holding onto most of its IMAX and 3D screens with no major release in either of those formats, while Lights Out will prove whether or not it’ll play like a traditional horror film, or more like the surprise long term success of 2013’s The Conjuring. Regardless, its low budget and simplistic premise means its probably already a franchise in the making.

Bar for Success

The Bourne Legacy was able to get to $38 million in its opening despite way more competition and no Matt Damon. Considering how slow the summer box office has been, Jason Bourne needs at least $50 million to get a pass. Bad Moms is fine at $20 million, while Nerve is fine at $15 million over its five day start.

Weekend Predictions

Jason Bourne – $43M Bad Moms – $31M Star Trek Beyond – $29M The Secret Life of Pets – $19M Nerve – $12M ($18M Five Day)