Only ‘cataclysmic event’ could stop GOP nominee from winning Tennessee

Donald Trump may be one of the least popular Republican presidential nominees in history, but that's not going to stop him from winning heavily in Tennessee, says a new poll from Vanderbilt University.

According to polling from late September, Trump is favored by Tennessee voters 44 percent to Hillary Clinton's 33 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is polling at 7 percent, while the Green Party's Jill Stein is at 1 percent. This follows polling earlier in the week from Middle Tennessee State University that showed Trump with a 12-point margin over Clinton.

“People are locked in,” said John Geer, the co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll. “They have their preferences and they’re not going to shift them very much, barring a cataclysmic event. Tennessee is going to go Republican. There’s no debate about that.”

According to the data, Trump is outpolling Clinton in East and Central Tennessee. In Davidson County, Clinton is narrowly topping Trump, 40 to 38 percent. But in West Tennessee, Clinton is getting 46 percent, while Trump is polling at only 28 percent. Rural and suburban voters heavily favor Trump, while urban voters favor Clinton, all by about a 2 to 1 margin.

Surprisingly, Trump is even outpolling Clinton among Tennessee women, which is definitely not the case on a national level. Polling found that 42 percent of women support Trump, compared to 33 percent of women in favor of Clinton. And in another break with national polls, even voters with college degrees are supporting Trump, by a 42 to 36 percent margin.

Less surprisingly, voters who feel the country's best days are ahead support Clinton, while those who feel the opposite favor Trump. Voters who feel angry about the federal government support Trump by 73 percent, whereas 66 percent of voters content with the government are choosing Clinton.