With the sunshine state vital to the next federal poll, the LNP and Labor are looking to ‘renew’

The Queensland MPs who may not make it to the next election

Incumbent Queensland MPs and senators have found their positions under threat as both major parties look to “renew” their tickets and improve their electoral chances in the sunshine state.

With the on-ground contest in Queensland critical to the outcome of the next federal election, and with insiders suggesting 10 of the state’s 30 seats are in play, the Liberal National party is contemplating a potential shake-up of its federal Senate ticket, as well as challenges to lower house sitting members.

Jane Prentice, who has held the seat of Ryan since 2010, is understood to be facing a challenge from the Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, who is considered a rising star within the LNP.

Sources within the Coalition, which sits as one combined party in Queensland, said they believed a battle “was imminent”, with opinion split on the outcome.

Keith Pitt, who was one of the leading voices within the Nationals party room advocating for change during the Barnaby Joyce scandal, is also under pressure, with several LNP sources telling Guardian Australia a challenger “was being sought”.

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“At this stage it is scouting but trust me when I say there are a lot of people still angry with the way the Barnaby saga played out, with [Michael] McCormack taking over the leadership,” one party operative said.

It is understood Pitt is not the only regional LNP MP under pressure. The former Newman minister John McVeigh is preparing for a potential challenge from the Christian right flank of his southern Queensland branch, disgruntled at his support for marriage equality.

McVeigh voted yes, despite a slim no vote in his electorate of Groom, having canvassed opinions and concluding that the youth vote was under-represented in the survey.

But that has left him open to attack in one of the most notoriously conservative branches of the LNP, with the former challenger David van Gend understood to be canvassing for a candidate to challenge him.

The LNP Senate ticket is also considered a work in progress. The party is working towards talking Ian Macdonald into retirement, despite the veteran senator’s protestations.

“He’ll be 80 if he gets another term,” said another LNP source, one of several to confirm the push. “Eighty. He’s been there since 1990 and it’s time. We all appreciate what he has done, but it’s time.

“Don’t be surprised if Barry O’Sullivan ends up part of the shuffle mix either.”

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While the LNP said any decisions would be up to branch members, the mood for change has been growing since the 2016 election, with the Queensland branch of the Coalition concerned about its future cabinet and leadership prospects.

Complicating the matter is the internal division between members who consider themselves progressive liberals and their more conservative fellows.

“It has always been a sometimes delicate balance, but with us being one official party in Queensland, instead of a coalition, the divide is a little more obvious up here,” a party source said.

“Then you take into account who we need to win, or hold seats like Dawson and Maranoa against One Nation and you start hearing that we need to go further to the right. But how does that win us Brisbane or the Gold Coast? With George [Brandis] out, we are a liberal voice down in the cabinet and in the party. It’s hard not to think we are at a crossroads up here.”

Labor is also looking to change the status quo, with the Senate ticket under the microscope as part of a wider left-faction insurgence across the east coast.

Claire Moore and Chris Ketter’s spots are both understood to be the targets for the shake-up, with the Queensland party arm scouting for candidates.

“Claire has had 18 years, it’s normal that after almost two decades you begin to look at renewing,” a Labor source said. “It is going to depend on what candidates are put forward but I think you’ll see some change.

“It is time. And we are looking to not only win the next election, which is going to depend a lot on what happens up here, but hold on to government, and ensure Queensland is represented at that cabinet table.”