Mary E. Lovely is a professor of economics at Syracuse University and non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The opinions expressed in this commentary are her own.

As the United States and China prepare to resume talks later this month, hopes run high that there will soon be an end to the destructive trade war between the two nations. Given how difficult it's proving to achieve lasting reform of China's industrial and technology policies, it's unlikely a long-term resolution will be reached this month. Indeed, President Trump recently softened his stance and agreed to consider an interim deal, presumably one that revives US agricultural exports but falls short on fundamental Chinese reforms.

Trump badly needs a deal that removes him from the tightening noose in which he now finds himself. From here forward, further ratcheting up the trade war will bring visible pain to American households, with implications for his re-election chances next year.

Fallout from the trade war so far has been painful, but manageable. Grain farmers are the biggest losers to date. Exports of soybeans to China in 2018 fell by 74% from the year before. The administration has been able to palliate the side effects with $24.5 billion in aid so far, but further funds depend, in part, on the willingness of the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.

And until recently, consumers have been spared. Trump's China tariffs have fallen mainly on imported goods used in industrial production with minimal direct hits to consumers. Analysis by Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics finds that 82% of parts and supplies that US-based businesses buy from China were subject to tariffs before September 2019, while only 29% of final consumer goods were similarly taxed. Tax rates also have been kept fairly low until recently, rising to 25% from 10% for most targeted goods only in June of this year, delaying the pain felt even by producers. Through these choices, the impact of the trade war has been hidden from voters in the vast supply chains that feed American production.

The most politically salient trade war damage lies ahead, unless the United States and China reach a deal. The Trump administration strategically backloaded the pain for consumers, but such cherrypicking is no longer possible now that the United States plans to tax almost all US imports from China.