Buttigieg scored by hitting Warren on spending. But how will he pay for his own plans?

Chris Sikich | IndyStar

Show Caption Hide Caption Pete Buttigieg and his major policy proposals Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg has released major policy proposals addressing foreign policy, minority voters, domestic terrorism and other issues.

Presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg has some explaining to do, and likely soon.

The South Bend mayor surged in the polls after attacking front-runner Elizabeth Warren for not revealing how she would pay for her massive Medicare expansion, a move that positioned him as a moderate in a field led by liberals.

But here's what's escaped notice so far: Buttigieg himself wants to increase spending in everything from health care and climate change to rural infrastructure and national service. And while Warren has since released a Medicare spending plan, Buttigieg is yet to say how he'll pay for all of his proposals.

Update: Here's how Buttigieg would pay for $5.7 trillion in spending

An IndyStar review of 10 major policy proposals released by Buttigieg, in fact, reveals that he plans to spend more than $4 trillion over time. While the race has been defined by massive spending plans by Bernie Sanders and Warren — her Medicare expansion alone would cost $20.5 trillion — that's still a big chunk of change.

And Buttigieg, too, left out many details as his campaign rolled out a host of new initiatives.

When asked by IndyStar, his campaign declined to say, at this time, how he would pay for the majority of his plans. A spokeswoman, though, said details would be coming soon.

With the federal budget deficit ballooning to $1.1 trillion in 2020 under President Trump, political scientists interviewed by IndyStar say Buttigieg needs to explain how he'll find the cash.

"Just about anybody would be more conservative than Warren and Sanders," said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. "I suppose they make all of the other Democrats look more moderate. But Buttigieg has some big numbers in there too."

Buttigieg's biggest expenditures are on climate and Medicare

The largest chunk of Buttigieg's spending is dedicated to two plans, according to the IndyStar analysis. He proposes to pay for his $2 trillion or so climate plan in part with carbon fees and his $1.5 trillion "Medicare for all who want it" expansion by rolling back the Trump tax cuts and negotiating drug prices.

But he hasn't released details yet of exactly how that would work.

Many of his other proposals require policy changes from the federal to local levels of government and it's unclear how those would affect budgets. But he proposed hard spending numbers in these eight initiatives:

Political watchers say it's a surprise no other candidates have asked him how he's going to pay for it all. Some pundits think Buttigieg, who has been campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire this week, will beat his opponents to the punch by releasing the details first.

"I'm waiting for Warren or someone to hit back and ask, 'OK Pete, where are you getting the money from?'" said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics. "Given the strategic planning he has done so far, I wonder if his campaign is timing this to a talk he will be giving someplace soon."

Several pundits wondered whether he'd propose a wealth tax, like Warren, who released her Medicare spending plan after attacks from Buttigieg and others. Other pundits think Buttigieg will simply say he's going to move money around from existing programs.

"He's trying to prepare himself to take over for Joe Biden," Sabato said. "But is a wealth tax something that Joe Biden would propose? I don't know."

Sabato said Buttigieg's overall spending appears to be more in line with what Biden has proposed than with the plans of the more progressive candidates.

"Buttigieg is preparing to be the nominee," Sabato said, "positioned perfectly between the left and the middle, but without releasing the kind of specifics that would torpedo him as Warren and Sanders may be torpedoed."

Ball State economist Michael Hicks, who has been following Buttigieg's campaign, said the mayor's spending proposals are progressive but aren't filled with "big, crazy numbers."

He proposes to spend around $2 trillion to fight climate change. By comparison, Sanders would spend $16.3 trillion. Biden would spend $5 trillion.

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Buttigieg's Medicare expansion — $150 billion or so a year — assumes most people will keep their private insurance. It's a smart move, Hicks said, especially in the Midwest where union workers have negotiated health care as part of their salary packages. The leading moderate candidate, Biden, in fact, has taken to aping Buttigieg's phrase — "Medicare for all who want it" — when describing his own health care plan.

Hicks suspects Buttigieg will stick to the middle path by suggesting reallocating existing resources to pay for many of his proposals. Whether that's practical or not in the real world will depend on whether Buttigieg would be able to negotiate with the various lobbies with their hands in the cookie jar.

But for the most part, Hicks thinks Buttigieg's proposals appear to be more practical than those of several of his rivals.

"Compared to Elizabeth Warren, who has seemingly a policy for everything, it's as if someone who has actually seen a federal budget is looking at Pete Buttigieg's numbers," Hicks said. "It may just be the practicality of having been a mayor."

But, the truth will be in the details. And so far, those have been sparse.

Pete Buttigieg speaks at NAACP event in Indianapolis Democratic presidential candidate South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg spoke at an Indianapolis NAACP event on Oct. 4, 2019.

Call IndyStar reporter Chris Sikich at 317-444-6036. Follow him on Twitter: @ChrisSikich.