Jane Ferguson:

Instead, lucrative contracts are likely to go to those who backed the Assad regime. Iran and Russia helped save Bashar al-Assad's rule, sending their militaries and proxies, like Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah militia, to fight for his government.

As a literal form of payback, business deals are now being signed. Last year, $1 billion worth of deals in construction, oil, gas and mining went to Russia. Companies linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards signed deals this year in telecommunications, and they are already rebuilding Syria's power grid.

The U.S. has said it won't contribute funds until there is a political process to replace Assad. That looks increasingly unlikely, leaving Western countries and others opposed to his rule facing a dilemma- how to fund reconstruction in Syria without helping Assad and his loyalists.

In the meantime, the system will remain a corrupt one, based on who you know. And businesses from places like Tripoli, where they opposed Assad, could struggle.