U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, whose traditionally red North Dallas district slightly favored Hillary Clinton last year, is already facing an unusually tough campaign in 2018. Two well-funded Democratic candidates are challenging the incumbent in an election year that has some national Democratic strategists, conscious of historical trends in the U.S. House of Representatives and an historically unpopular Republican president, smelling blood in the water. A federal court ruling on Texas’ congressional map, expected in the near future, could make Sessions more vulnerable, even if the worst “Armageddon map” scenario doesn’t spell total doom for Texas Republicans in Washington.

A New York Times analysis published today looks at how redistricting could endanger Republican representatives across the state—a federal court is now weighing whether Texas discriminated against minority voters when it redrew its congressional map five years ago. (Quick recap: a 2011 state redistricting was found to violate the Voting Rights Act, but a temporary court-drawn map adopted in 2012, since made permanent by Texas, has been challenged for still failing to create enough minority-majority districts.) The Times envisions several possible results in which a federal ruling, one that takes gerrymandering redistricting out of the hands of the state, could endanger Republican incumbents.

The most modest of these sees Texas Republicans losing one seat in proximity to the Independent People’s Republic of Austin. The most extreme—and, it should be said, most unlikely—outcome has been characterized in the appropriately measured terms of an “Armageddon map,” which could result in up to seven new Democratic districts, including Sessions’ seat and Kenny Marchant’s Irving stronghold. From the analysis:

…Texas might be required to draw an additional minority opportunity district — where the goal is to give racial or ethnic minorities the sway to elect the candidate of their choice — in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. If that happened, a Republican seat would need to be sacrificed here as well, most likely Joe Barton or Kenny Marchant, or perhaps the district held by Sam Johnson, who is not going to seek re-election. What would “Armageddon” look like? Well, the likeliest version is the possibility that such changes to a few districts ripple across the map, endangering additional Republican incumbents. The Republican-controlled state legislature would probably be able to contain the damage if it got to redraw the map itself. The federal court has asked both sides whether they would be available for a remedial hearing in August or September, a sign that the court might redraw the map instead. A court-drawn map might not be nearly as generous to the Republicans as a map drawn by the legislature… In the Dallas area, a new minority-majority district — a district where the majority are racial or ethnic minorities — could require shifts that further endanger Pete Sessions, who represents a district that narrowly voted for Hillary Clinton.

However, even if North Texas Republicans’ worst Armageddon nightmares come true, and the seven trumpets of the Book of Revelation sound while Hispanic voters turn out in droves, Sessions still has a 46 percent chance of keeping his seat, according to this analysis. If the Texas GOP wins its case and the district boundaries remain unchanged, the Times gives Sessions a 67 percent chance. Democrats continue to face an uphill battle in what’s shaping up to be a very expensive race for both sides, but Sessions shouldn’t sit too comfortably.