by William P.

Back in January, the RotoProfessor called Addison Russell a “hands off” option. With just under 40% of the MLB season completed, is Russell worth a look in the crowded Cubs lineup? Let’s take a look.

Addison Russell went 11th overall in the 2012 draft and was the Oakland A’s prized infield prospect up until the 2014 trade which brought him to the Cubs. His minor league numbers were stellar and included a .281 batting average, a slugging percentage just under .500 and an OPS of 0.879:

It’s easy to see why Billy Beane was so excited about Russell, as prorated over 600 AB he virtually posted a .280 / 25 / 90 / 25 season. Not bad at ages 19, 20 and 21.

We’ll skip over the wisdom of Beane letting Russell go for two pitchers, which the A’s no longer have (Hammel and Samardzija). It’s also easy to forget the fact that Russell is still very young and inexperienced by MLB standards, as he only received 44 AB above Double-A prior to being promoted to the Majors last season.

So far in his MLB career Russell has posted numbers well short of his minor league performance, including a .239 batting average, a .382 slugging percentage and an OPS of only 0.693:

Those numbers have come across exactly 200 Major League games, so let’s prorate them back to a 600 AB:

Not that exciting, right? While Russell qualifies at both 2B and SS, and 16 HR is decent at SS, you can probably find production like this on the waiver wire in most leagues.

So what has been the problem with Addison Russell in his transition to the majors? Let’s dig a little deeper and look at contact rate, strikeout rate and BABIP, comparing his minor league seasons with his MLB seasons to date:

It certainly looks like Russell has had trouble adjusting to Major League pitching, as his strikeout rate is 10 percentage points higher (28% vs. 18%) and his contact rate is 11 percentage points lower (69% vs. 80%). His BABIP in the Majors thus far isn’t too far off where it was in the minors (.318 vs .341), but it’s the very high strikeout rate and much lower contact rate that are concerning. These have led to a batting average 40 points lower in the Majors (.239 vs. .281) and a relatively anemic slugging percentage (.382 vs. .499 in the minors).

Bottom line, while the dual eligibility at 2B and SS is helpful, we’d only “add” Addison Russell if you are desperate for a middle infielder. There’s certainly potential, but until he figures out Major League pitching there are probably better options available. The fact that he does not play every day in the crowded Cubs lineup probably seals the deal for most fantasy managers.

What do you think? Let us know.