Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

Background: Prior to the Cubs’ reemergence as a perennial playoff contender, Theo Epstein and Co. cast a wide net in search of gathering as many impact bats as possible. They traded for Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell; signed Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward, who used to be an impact bat, and drafted Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ. And the South Siders cornered the market on the amateur international prospects as well. Enter: Eloy Jimenez. Widely recognized as the top prospect heading into the 2013 signing period, the Cubs convinced the 6-foot-4, 205-pound outfielder to sign on the dotted line with a hefty $2.8 million.

The behemoth corner outfielder struggled the following year during his debut in the Arizona Summer League, batting .227/.268/.367 with eight doubles, two triples, and three homeruns in 42 games as a 17-year-old. Epstein and Co., completely undeterred, aggressively pushed the teenage prospect up to the Northwest League the following season. And Jimenez blossomed. In 57 games with Eugene, the Dominican-born prospect slugged .284/.328/.418 with 10 doubles and seven homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 13%. And that was just a harbinger of things to come. In one of the bigger breakouts of 2016, Jimenez battered the Low Class A competition to the tune of .329/.369/.532 with a whopping 40 doubles, three triples, and 14 homeruns. He also swiped eight bags – just for good measure. His final production line topped the league average mark by an impressive 62%. The Cubbies flipped the supremely gifted hitter to the South Siders midway through the 2017 season as part of a hefty prospect-laden package in exchange for veteran southpaw Jose Quintana. Along with Jimenez, the White Sox snagged Dylan Cease, Bryant Flete, and Matt Rose. As for his on-field production, Jimenez slugged an aggregate .312/.379/.568 with 22 doubles, three triples, and 19 homeruns in just 89 games between High Class A and Class AA. His overall production was 65% better than the league average.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote two years ago in the 2016 Handbook:

“Again, here’s some more context: only one other 18-year-old slugged more short-season dingers than Jimenez: Colorado’s Kevin Padlo, with 10. Jimenez has massive, massive power potential – something that his 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame only hints at. Solid-eye with some room to grow as he familiarizes himself with more advanced pitching. He also has strong contact rates, another encouraging sign for a budding power-hitter.”

And here’s the analysis from last season’s Handbook when I ranked him as the Cubs’ top prospect:

“Just how good was Jimenez last season? Well, consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been only three other teenagers to post a wRC+ of at least 160 in a season in Low Class A: Joey Gallo, Jaff Decker, and Giancarlo Stanton.

Again, since 2006, there have been only four other teenagers to slug 40 or more doubles in a season in Low Class A: Ryan McMahon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Jay Bruce. And the first three players, by the way, played in one of the minors’ friendliest hitting environments.

The fact that Jimenez is the only member of both groups should say enough about his offensive abilities. Well, the power still has plenty of room for growth – as evidenced by his 57 extra-base hits. He’s a future star..”

Jose Quintana is, unquestionably, one of the better starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. But the Cubs, whose window to win is now, gave up one of the most talented minor league hitters – a budding superstar. And there’s little to no concern that Jimenez doesn’t achieve that superstardom. With respect to his work with both organizations’ Carolina League affiliates, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only one hitter – Eric Hosmer – posted at least a 155 wRC+ mark in the Carolina League (min. 275 PA).

Jimenez, by the way, dwarfed Hosmer’s power production – .268 ISO vs. a .190 ISO – with essentially the same walk rate. The White Sox’s long term middle-of-the-lineup thumper also plays a solid left/right field. Future perennial All-Star and a potential MVP candidate during his peak.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

Background: Chicago broke the proverbial bank – with good reason – when they signed the Cuban outfielder to deal with a hefty $26 million bonus in late May last season. Robert, a wiry 6-foot-3, 185-pound outfielder, spent the previous four seasons playing for the Tigres de Ciego de Avila in the Cuban National Series – beginning at the age of 15. Robert was incredibly productive – even when measured against his extremely hitter-friendly environment – during his final season, slugging .401/.526/.687 with 12 doubles, two triples, and 12 homeruns. He also swiped 11 bags in 17 tries. After signing the teenage outfielder, Chicago sent Robert down to the Dominican Summer League as a brief introduction to the minor leagues. He slugged .310/.491/.536 with eight doubles, one triple, and three homeruns in just 28 games.

Projection: Just for fun – and, yes, it was in the Dominican Summer League – but here’s his counting stats prorated over a full 162-game season: 46 doubles, six triples, and 17 homeruns. Robert, as an 18-year-old, was one of the top performers in the Cuban National Series, so it’s easy to see how he commanded such a hefty signing bonus. But just consider the following for moment:

During his final season in the Cuban National Series, Robert’s production ranked as follows: batting average (second), on-base percentage (first), slugging percentage (first), and homeruns (tied for third).

Again, all of this came at the age of 18. Here’s one more comparison to throw out there. Consider the following between two recent Cuban National Series stars:

Player Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% Luis Robert 18 232 0.401 0.526 0.687 16.38% 12.93% Yasiel Puig 19 384 0.330 0.430 0.581 12.76% 10.16%

Puig, of course, owns a 130 wRC+ mark during his five-year big league career. So with respect to Robert, can someone say star?

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Just one of several high octane arms the system has been developing over the past couple of seasons. Chicago acquired the 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander as one of the central pieces to the Chris Sale swap with Boston last offseason. Kopech, the 33rd overall selection in the 2014 draft out of Mount Pleasant High School, is the stereotypical Texas-born hurler: he’s big and projectable, can light up a radar with one of the liveliest fastballs on the planet, and racks up strikeouts like very few pitchers. Last season, his first in the Chicago system, Kopech opened up the year in dominant fashion: he fanned 10 and walked just a pair in only 4.1 innings of work against the Jackson General on April 8th. And he only got better as the season went along. Kopech finished the year a career high 25 starts, 22 coming in Class AA, the minors’ toughest challenge, and the remaining three in Class AAA, throwing 134.1 innings with 172 punch outs versus 65 walks. He compiled an aggregate 2.88 ERA and a 2.74 FIP.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about the dominant youngster in the 2016 Handbook when I ranked him as Boston’s fifth best minor league prospect:

“Equipped with a power-pitcher’s arsenal, the 6-foot-3, 195-pound right-hander can sling it with the best ‘em. And unlike so many other teenagers blessed with an above-average- to plus-fastball, Kopech actually knew where it was going the majority of the time. Look for him to have a big, big year in 2016.”

And here’s what I wrote when I ranked Kopech as the White Sox’s third best prospect in last season’s Handbook, falling in line behind Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito:

“Now that’s how you have a big year. He’s on the short, short list for best pitching prospect in baseball. If he can keep the control under…well…control, the sky’s the absolute limit. Bar. None. Bonafide ace. Oh, yeah, there are reports that he unleashed a 105 mph heater during the summer. So, yeah, that’s fast…”

So let’s just jump right into it. Consider the following:

Here’s the list of 21-year-old pitchers to post at least a 30% strikeout percentage in the Southern League since 2006 (min. 100 IP): Gio Gonzalez and Michael Kopech.

Gonzalez, by the way, only showed slightly better control – he walked 9.3% of the hitters he faced – and has developed into a multiple appearance All-Star hurler. Kopech has a better arsenal, though he slings it from the right side, but his ceiling is a bit higher. But, again, his ability to consistently find the strike zone will be the ultimate deciding factor.

Ceiling: 5.5- to 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

Background: Nothing speaks more highly of the White Sox’s player development program than Alec Hansen, a hard-throwing power pitcher with a history of dominant strikeout rates and problematic control during his three years at the University of Oklahoma. Undeterred by the behemoth right-hander’s bloated walk rate during his junior campaign – he averaged nearly seven walks per nine innings – Chicago snagged the Sooner in the second round two years ago. Hansen, the 49th overall pick, has quickly transformed into one of the most dominant minor league hurlers. The reason: as I noted in last year’s Handbook, according to a report by Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald, Chicago’s director of player development, Nick Capra, said that the club made “a couple of mechanical changes, small issues he had coming in.”

Those small changes had a massive impact on his ability to pound the zone.

Hansen blew through three levels during his debut two years ago, posting an ace-like 81-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 54.2 innings. And, once again, the 6-foot-7, 235-pound righty skipped through three levels in 2017, going from the South Atlantic League up to High Class A before settling in for two games in the Southern League. Hansen recorded 191 punch outs, the most in the minor leagues last season, against just 51 walks in 141.1 innings. He compiled an aggregate 2.80 ERA and an even better 2.60 FIP.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the fire bolt-slinging hurler heading into the 2016 draft:

“Hansen clearly has the talent and subsequent build to tempt teams in the early part of round one, but he’s never walked fewer than 4.83 hitters per nine innings at any point in his career. But he is a pretty rare breed: between 2011 and 2015 no Division I pitcher has thrown more than 50 innings while averaging at least 13 punch outs and 6.5 walks per nine innings. Hansen’s days as a starting pitcher are numbered, likely by the weeks. But he could be an interesting gamble in round three as a potential late-inning reliever if a team thinks it can teach him to throw more strikes.”

And, clearly, Chicago had different designs for Hansen’s future. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only four 22-year-old pitchers posted at least a 30% strikeout percentage and a 6.5-8.5% walk percentage in the South Atlantic League (min. 50 IP): Jose Mavare, Dexter Carter, Kyle Landis, and Ryan Reid.

Obviously, it’s not an overly impressive collection of hurlers in large part because of their age and level of competition. So let’s take a look at his work in the Carolina League now. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only four 22-year-old pitchers posted at least a 30% strikeout percentage and a 10-12%% walk percentage in the Carolina League (min. 50 IP): Drew Pomeranz, Wilmer Font, Henry Barrera, Miguel De Los Santos.

The Drew Pomeranz comparison seems incredibly reasonable. Pomeranz bounced between a few organizations and took longer to develop than expected. But he’s turned into an above-average, All-Star performer. Hansen’s control is still below-average.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

5. Jake Burger, 3B

Background: The preeminent power hitter in last season’s draft class, Burger, who went undrafted coming out of Christian Brothers College High School, burst onto the scene as a true freshman for the Missouri State Bears in 2015. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound third baseman slugged a robust .342/.390/.518 with a team-leading 22 doubles, three triples, and four long balls. He also swiped four bags just for added measure. He followed that up with an even more prolific season in 2016: in 56 games for Head Coach Keith Guttin, Burger walloped the opposition to the tune of .349/.420/.689 with 13 doubles, a pair of triples, 21 homeruns, and, of course, another three stolen bases. Burger garnered a litany of awards that year as well, including: ABCA/Rawlings Gold Glove Award, Third Team All-American (Baseball America, NCBWA, D1Baseball, and Louisville Slugger). His bat cooled considerably during the summer, though, as he batted a respectably mediocre .271/.358/.373 with just five extra-base hits in 19 games for Team USA. Last season Burger, once again, showcased his offensive prowess: in a career high 63 games, Burger slugged a sizzling .328/.443/.648 with 13 doubles and a career best 22 homeruns, the seventh best total among all Division I bats. Chicago grabbed the burly hot corner with the 11th overall selection last June. And after a tour through the Arizona Summer League, Burger appeared in 47 games with Kannapolis, slugging .271/.335/.409 with nine doubles, two triples, and four homeruns.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the former Missouri State University slugger heading into the draft last season:

“Again, Burger’s the prolific collegiate power hitter in this year’s draft class. He has not one, but two seasons in which he’s reached the 20-homer mark – the only hitter to accomplish that feat since 2011. In fact, here’s some more contextual evidence to support Burger’s dominance throughout his amateur career:

Since 2011, there are only 61 instances in which a slugger – at any level – batted at least .340/.400/.675 in a season (minimum 240 plate appearances).

Continuing with the aforementioned factoid, only four hitters have accomplished that twice in their respective careers: Adam Giacalone, Dylan Johnson, Kyle Lewis, D.J. Peterson.

Of those aforementioned four, only Kyle Lewis and D.J. Peterson played at the Division I level. Burger, of course, would be the third [at the time of the writing].

Keeping with the original production levels (.340/.400/.675), only six of those hitters have slugged 20 homeruns in their respective seasons: Casey Allison, Miguel Beltran, Jake Burger (twice), Nick Feight, Jake Lowery, and Heath Quinn.

Again, extending the constraints a little more, no player has accomplished that with a walk rate north of 15.0%. If the season ended at the time of this writing, Burger would eclipse that mark.

There’s really nothing to not like about Burger: above-average to plus power, a premium defensive position, and impressive plate discipline. Depending upon his defensive ratings, Burger has the potential to be an All-Star.”

Burger looked exceptional during his first 20 games in the Sally last season, slugging .356/.440/.575 with eight doubles, one triple, and a pair of homeruns before his bat cooled and his plate discipline vanished. Expect his walk rates to move closer to double-digit territory in 2018 as he moves up to High Class A. Defensively, he was above-average during his short sample-sized debut.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

6. Dylan Cease, RHP

Background: The second best prospect the White Sox received from the Cubs in the Jose Quintana deal. Cease, a sixth round pick in 2014, turned in a typical Cease-like campaign last season. Splitting time between both clubs’ Low Class A affiliates, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound right-hander tossed a career best 93.1 innings, fanning an impressive 126 and walking 44. He finished the season with an aggregate 3.28 ERA and a 2.74 FIP. For his three-year professional career, Cease is averaging a whopping 12.1 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings to go along with a 2.89 ERA.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about Cease in last year’s Handbook when I ranked him as fourth best prospect in the Cubs’ farm system:

“Big, big time fastball with the strikeout percentage to match, if Cease can reign in his control issues there’s no limiting his potential as a frontline, top-end starter. And, boy, did he end last season on a high note: he twirled a five-inning, one hit, no walk, 10-strikeout performance against the Hillsboro Hops on his final start of the season. Need more evidence of his budding dominance? Consider this: over his final 21.0 innings he posted 0.43 ERA, fanned 39 K, and walked just 10. He could be the single biggest riser in all of the minor leagues next year. Yes, he’s going to be that good.”

So did he live up to the lofty expectations I laid out? Among all minor league arms with at least 90 innings last season, Cease’s strikeout percentage, 32.5%, ranked as the eighth best mark out of 611 hurlers. And for the third consecutive season he shaved some precious percentage points from his walk rate. Cease could be one of the bigger breakouts in 2018.

Ceiling: 4.0- to 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

Background: The White Sox grabbed the hulking lefty-swinging backstop with the tenth overall selection two years ago after a stellar three-year career at the University of Miami. Standing a bulky 6-foot-3, and 220 pounds, Collins was a dynamic offensive player for the Hurricanes, leaving the school with a career .319/.472/.601 triple-slash line. And in true Chicagoan fashion, Collins has already accrued a bit of time in the minors’ most important level: Class AA. Collins made a three-game appearance in the Arizona Summer League before jumping straight up to High Class A for the remainder of his debut. He compiled a solid .244/.396/.435 triple-slash line. Last season the organization sent him back down to Winston-Salem where he batted a saber-friendly .223/.365/.443 with 18 doubles, three triples, and 17 homeruns. He also appeared in a dozen Southern League games.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the former collegiate star heading into the 2016 draft:

“Here’s the best part of Collins’ string of offensive dominance: Since his first day on campus he’s displayed an impeccable feel for the strike zone. Through his first 174 games, he’s sporting a career 158-to-144 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

And just how special has Collins been in 2016?

Well, consider the following: Between 2011 and 2015 no catcher at the Division I level has posted an OBP north of .550, and only one catcher – Long Island-Brooklyn’s Tyler Jones – has finished a season with an OBP above .510.

Collins is the cream of the crop when it comes to collegiate catching. He does everything exceptionally well: he’s been dominant – and continued to improve – during each of his seasons with Miami; he hits for average and power, and possesses an incredible eye at the plate.

Depending upon his defense and ability to handle fellow southpaws – the data is unavailable to me now – Collins has the makings of an above-average, perhaps even borderline All-Star.”

Let’s update that more than a year later. Collins is not only one of the most patient hitters in the minor leagues, but his name belongs in the conversation among all professional hitters – on any continent. His walk rate last season, 17.8%, paced the Carolina League and he finished as the third most patient hitter among all minor league prospects (min. 400 PA). His power grades out as above-average with the potential to top 25 homeruns in a full big league season. And he’s at least passable as a defender at the game’s premier position. And now the bad news: his hit tool is severely lacking and he’s completely helpless against southpaws, something that concerned me heading into the draft; he batted just .168/.309/.319 against lefties (vs. .248/.396/.500 against righties) last season.

As far as the actual production is concerned, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s the list of 22-year-old hitters to post a 125-135 wRC+ mark with at least a 12.5% walk rate and a .200 ISO in the Carolina League (min. 350 PA): Nolan Reimold, Eric Campbell, and Marvin Lowrance. The first two have spent considerable time in the big leagues. And here are their respective wRC+ marks in The Show: 99 (Reimold) and 80 (Campbell).

Collins still looks like a capable future big league starting backstop, but he’s – clearly – not without some red flags and risk. He fared significantly better against LHP during his debut, so there’s hope that he rebounds in 2018.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

8. Blake Rutherford, CF

Background: The central prospect the club received from the Yankees as part of the massive seven-player deal that sent veterans Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson to the Yankees near the trade deadline last season. Rutherford, who was acquired along with Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo, and big league veteran reliever Tyler Clippard, was the 18th overall player chosen in the 2016 draft. A 6-foot-3, 195-pound center fielder, Rutherford torched both of New York’s stateside rookie leagues during his debut, slugging a combined .351/.415/.570 with eight doubles, four triples, and three homeruns in just 33 contests. He spent his entire sophomore season in Low Class A. In 101 games between both of the organizations’ South Atlantic League affiliates, the lefty-swinging center fielder hit an aggregate .260/.326/.348 with 25 doubles, two triples, and two homeruns. He also swiped 10 bags in 14 attempts. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, Rutherford’s overall production was essentially along the lines of the league average production.

Projection: Rutherford’s 2017 campaign can be told with two different stories: he was incredibly effective as a hitter prior to the trade, batting .281/.342/.391; but his stick cooled considerably once he was acquired by Chicago (.213/.289/.254). Given his strong debut two years ago, I’m inclined to believe in his NY numbers in 2017. So let’s look at those and see how they stack up against his peers, historically speaking.

Between 2006 and 2014, there were 29 hitters that posted a wRC+ between 108 and 118 in the South Atlantic League during their age-20 season (min. 300 PA). Of those aforementioned 29 players, 14 of them have accrued big league experience on their professional resumes.

Those are solid odds. So let’s continue.

Of the 14 hitters that have made the big leagues, only five of them have posted at least a 95 wRC+ in a big league season (min. 250 PA): Abraham Almonte, Will Middlebrooks, Travis d’Arnaud, Trayce Thompson, and Tim Anderson.

Rutherford offers up a slightly better than average eye at the plate, OK power, and a smidgeon of speed. Defensively, he’s been slightly worse than average. The former first round picks looks like a competent big league center fielder, but he’s not going to be a star.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Sheets’ old man, Larry, was drafted in the second round by the Baltimore Orioles out of Lee High School all the way back in 1978. Fun Fact Part II: The elder Sheets paced the 1987 Orioles in long balls and overall production, beating out a pair of eventual Hall of Famers (Eddie Murray and Cal Ripken Jr.) as well as an aging former All-Star in Fred Lynn. Fun Fact Part III: according to Baseball-Reference.com, Larry earned a little less than $2.2 million during his eight-year Major League career – a number that’s roughly equivalent to Gavin’s first contract in professional ball.

Originally drafted by the Braves in the 37th round coming out of high school, Sheets had a nice little freshman year for the Demon Deacons: in semi-regular action, he batted .250/.319/.336 with five doubles and a pair of homeruns. He would spend the following summer playing for the Baltimore Redbirds in the Cal Ripken League, hitting .267/.336/.317 – though he managed to squeak out just six extra-base hits in 35 games (all doubles, by the way).

His numbers saw a noticeable uptick during his sophomore campaign for Wake Forest. In a career best 62 contests, the younger Sheets battered the opposition to the tune of .326/.395/.496 with 13 doubles, nine homeruns, and a 31-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And, once again, he found himself playing for the Redbirds during the summer where he looked a little more comfortable in the non-NCAA league (.280/.370/.376). Last season Sheets’ power exploded as he slugged 10 doubles, one triple, and a career best 21 homeruns en route to batting .317/.424/.629. The best part of his success? He sported an impressive 37-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

After Chicago grabbed the smooth-swinging first baseman in the second round last June, 49th overall, Sheets spent the majority of his debut in the South Atlantic League. In 52 contests with Kannapolis, the 6-foot-4, 230-pound slugged batted .266/.346/.365 with 10 doubles and three triples. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by 9%.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about the Wake Forest slugger heading into the 2017 draft:

So there [are] some interesting things going on with Sheets:

Between 2011 and 2016, there’s only been one ACC hitter – former Miami third baseman David Thompson – that has slugged at least 19 homeruns in a season. Thompson, by the way, was a fourth round pick by the Mets in 2015 and didn’t have nearly the track record of success that Sheets has/had.

Again, between 2011 and 2016, only one other ACC hitter has posted a walk rate north of 15%, a strikeout rate below 12.5%, and slug 15 homeruns in season: Seth Beer. Sheets would be the second to achieve the feat.

Between the same data set, only six other ACC hitters have batted .300/.400/.600 in a season (minimum 250 PA): Seth Beer, Zack Collins, Chris Okey, Daniel Palka, James Ramsey and David Thompson. Collins was the 10th overall pick last year. Okey was taken one round later by the Reds. Palka was a third rounder in 2013. And Ramsey was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2012.

Sheets is essentially limited to first base – or maybe a corner outfield position. The power is an above-average or slightly better skill. The patience and contact rates will be average in professional baseball. And he has the size that scouts crave.

There’s been a noticeable downturn among collegiate hitters in this year’s draft class. So it wouldn’t be surprising to see and/or hear Sheets’ name get called sometime between picks 20 and 40.

At his peak, he looks like a .280/.340/.460-type hitter, capable of slugging 15- to 20-homeruns.”

I was off just nine picks. Not too shabby.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

Background: Owning the frame size that would suggest plenty of projection throughout his young professional career, Guerrero, however, never quite grew beyond the fringy fastball that he showed when he was first drafted by the organization in the 15th round all the way back in 2012. But that hasn’t stopped the 6-foot-3, 195-pound southpaw from mowing down the opposition – despite spending the past two years squaring off against the minors’ toughest level: Class AA. On the heels of a decent 2016 campaign, Guerrero reverted back to his career norms during his second go-round in the Southern League last season, throwing 146.1 – the third consecutive season in which he’s thrown at least 136.0 innings of work – with a stellar 136-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the year with a 4.18 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, and a 2.64 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Projection: Despite lacking a traditional power-packed arsenal, Guerrero has continued to handle each stop along the minor league ladder with relative ease. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only one 23-year-old pitcher posted a 21-23% strikeout percentage and a walk percentage between 6-8% in the Southern League (min. 100 IP): Adam Conley, a fellow southpaw who tallied 1.5 fWAR in 2016 for the Marlins.

I’m hesitant to write it, but I will anyway: There’s a little bit of Jose Quintana developing here. And Guerrero could be a dark horse candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year in 2018.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.