Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve developed an absolute obsession with Covid-19. As a stats geek who loves the challenges and benefits that data modeling and machine learning will bring, as well as someone with an intense fascination in the future of humanity, what better to throw my interest in than an emerging pandemic?

A few things should be said, however, before I continue. The intent of this is not to minimize or sensationalize what is about to happen. What is going to happen is going to be nothing short of a devastating, Black Swan Event which will undoubtedly be a very difficult time to live through. Millions will die during this time, and major ramifications will be seen throughout the economies of the world. With that said, it’s time to investigate what can we expect throughout the next year or so.

It seems most likely to me that the virus becoming endemic in the next year will play out in stages. These stages will involve the increased levels of government intervention and regulation in our lives, concurrent with the spread and increased burden that Covid-19 will bring about on American society. At the time of writing, we find ourselves in the early part of the first stage.

Stage 1.

Stage 1 first takes place through media, as coverage around the pandemic begins and rapidly increases its share of air-time, as the number of confirmed cases grows exponentially. The public quickly learns the ways in which it can combat the spread of the virus, as debate breaks out over the extent to which it will impact our lives, ranging from skeptics who claim mass hysteria and that this will all blow over, to those who have prepared for the outbreak as one would for the apocalypse. Companies will urge workers to stay home if they feel ill. Institutions will begin to close. Schools and universities will close their in-person teaching and opt for online remote learning. Some of these universities will (correctly) close completely and urge students to return home as soon as possible while keeping a small percentage of the campus open for students who rely on the universities for housing. The schools that remain open after many others have closed, or plan to reopen at a set date will quickly realize the speed of the exponential growth of the virus and close completely. All schools and universities will now be conducted remotely online, and we will see an explosion in online learning resources such as Khan Academy. Public gatherings and organized events like festivals or conferences will initially be discouraged by the public to fight the spread of the disease, before being canceled or banned. Professional sports leagues will scramble to keep open, first by banning fans from games or postponing/moving them. Quickly, the spread of the disease will become so large that it will inevitably infect a player or team staff member. Upon the infection, the entire team will have to be tested and/or quarantined, crippling the league. The leagues will realize the futility of holding games without fans and suspend their seasons. Celebrities and friends of friends will begin to contract the virus and the infected will no longer feel anonymous, but begin to feel much scarier and more personal. This is the end of stage 1.

Stage 2.

Stage 2 will begin with widespread changes to everyday life. Exponential growth and expanded testing will lead to an explosion in the number of cases. Governments will ban travel from various (potentially eventually all) infected countries which will only very slightly delay the peak of infection. People will become much less inclined to eat at restaurants or go out in general, and increasingly opt for food delivery services or cooking at home. Roads will become increasingly less congested as previously jammed expressways will now be wide open. Your friends may begin posting on social media informing those who they’ve been in physical contact with that they have tested positive for the virus. Many non-essential activities and hobbies will be cut out of our daily schedules as people opt to stay in to workout or watch TV rather than going to the gym or going out to see a movie. Subscriptions to entertainment services like Netflix or Amazon will skyrocket as people begin to spend the majority of their time in their own homes and much more time online. New movies (that had not ceased production) will not be released in theaters, but rather will immediately be put online. Schools, universities, and workplaces will begin to struggle to operate properly, as increasing proportions of teachers, students, and managers contract the virus. In efforts to prevent the spread across the country, states, where the outbreak is the worst (currently Washington, New York, and California), may begin to close their borders, only to be crossed for travel that is absolutely necessary. Uncertainty about the future, as well as increased time spent indoors and online, will lead to increased rates of anxiety and depression. People may become tired of their families or roommates after spending much more time indoors with them. Governments will begin to restrict movements within states, and likely only allow essential travel to hospitals, pharmacies, or to buy food. Non-essential fields of work may be temporarily suspended, but essential lines of work such as factories will be kept open. Factory workers will endure around the clock testing for coronavirus and entire factory workforces will likely often be replaced upon any of the workers testing positive for the virus. Large corporations like Walmart or McDonalds who employ millions in Americans may only be using a fraction of their workforce (if they are using any). These corporations will hopefully be pressured and/or federally mandated to continue to provide income to workers who are sick/not needed. The United States will descend into a deeper recession by the day as Governments worldwide will continue pouring billions of dollars into finding a vaccine.

Stage 3.

Stage 3 will see the United States potentially undergo major political ramifications brought about by Covid-19. Not only is the US in an election year, but the 3 candidates left running are all over 70 years old. If one of the candidates were to catch it, it would pose a serious threat to their health. Even if the disease did not kill them, perhaps they would be weakened significantly enough that their Vice Presidential nominee would step in and become the effective nominee. Candidates to do this include Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Cory Booker, among others. The political ramifications of Covid-19 do not stop there. Currently 76 members of congress are age 70 or older. If this were to become a widespread pandemic, based on the current estimates of the mortality rate, this will kill multiple members of congress. Due to the average age of members of congress, it may make it harder for bills to pass if many members are hospitalized, and it is likely that many votes will go through the chambers with many absentee votes. While this is serious, it is not the political ramification that will have the largest, longest-lasting impact on American politics. The largest change from Covid-19 will likely come in the Supreme Court. The average age of Supreme Court justices is currently 67 years old. If we see widespread infections of Covid-19, that could mean a major restructuring of the Supreme Court. The oldest justices, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, nearly 87, and Stephen Breyer, 81, are both Democratic justices. If they contracted the illness they would be at a significant risk of death or being unable to serve. If this is the case, the 5–4 majority Republicans hold in the Supreme Court could easily shift to a 6–3 or 7–2 majority, if new Republican judges are approved under the current administration. This would serve as a major threat to Roe v Wade and the United States could see abortion federally outlawed.

Stage 4.

The likelihood of Stage 4 occurring is too early to realistically forecast, however, we should do all we can to ensure that we do not reach it. If we are unsuccessful in ‘flattening the curve’ and ensuring that the US Healthcare System does not become overloaded, triage may become necessary. If that is the case, hospitals would likely be reserved for the most serious cases, while less serious cases are urged to stay home, or are taken to makeshift care centers held in large repurposed spaces (warehouses, school gyms). Natural disasters like earthquakes and tornadoes will have outsized impacts on the areas they affect as the majority of public health resources will be preoccupied with fighting the disease. At some point during this stage, enough of the American population will have contracted the virus that minimizing its spread will no longer become a pressing issue but rather, a national conversation will begin to emerge about the return to relative normalcy. At what point will so many people have already contracted the virus that the idea of a return to our daily lives seems reasonable? I suspect that the public will eventually come to accept the reality of living with sickness as aspects of pre-virus life begin to return. Bans on moderately sized public gatherings and/or fields of work that had been suspended may see their restrictions lifted. We could see widespread acceptance of the reality of disease by universities as well, and students attending universities in less affected areas may begin to trickle back onto their campuses sometime in late 2020 or early 2021.

Stage 5.

The first part of Stage 5 will be the rapidly increased re-acclimation to our normal lives as more and more government restrictions used to contain the spread are lifted. Eventually, life will begin to feel like it did before the virus and widespread illness will have been accepted as a reality. At some point (likely at least 9 months from now), a successful vaccine for Covid-19 will be tested, approved by the FDA, and mass-produced for worldwide deployment. By this time life will more or less return to pre-virus normalcy. People across the world will return to work, students will return to classrooms and life will resume. Economies around the world will surge and begin the long trek out of the deep recession of the last year or so. The world will slowly begin to heal emotionally from the trauma that Coronavirus brought about. The CDC and other preventative measures will see their funding increased substantially, and a generation will see more of its students enter into epidemiology than any generations before it. The American political landscape and demographics more broadly will have changed as some proportion of older voters and politicians will have died, but eventually, the world will move on.

Moving On

Like many Black Swan events, this will have an extraordinary impact on our future that we currently can not with certainty predict the extent of. It may in hindsight seem predictable or easily avoidable in the future as events like this often are, but it is important to remain diligent in the pursuit of societal safety nets to ensure that events like this occur less and less often.

Currently, the most important thing you can do is to ‘flatten the curve’. This means washing your hands often and avoiding touching your face. Avoid large gatherings and practice social distancing whenever possible. The infrastructure of the US Healthcare System, and the lives of millions of Americans, depend on it.