Welcome to Week 13 (JUNE 26 through JULY 2, 2017). In case anyone is wondering, as I discussed last week, all three of the groundhog, my Disabled Lists, and my ERA’s are still fully bloated and free wheeling. I love week thirteen. Even though people in baseball tend to think of the All-Star Game as the halfway point of the season, the first half actually ends on Sunday, July 2nd. Statistically, you know what your players are on pace for, barring a 2nd half streak one way or the other. It is a great time to take stock of your team and figure out what you need for the stretch run which will be here before you know it, or if you are a buyer or seller. Sit down, crack open a cold one, and look hard at those teams of yours. Good luck and good trading either way.

Some good news:

An interesting call-up that all fantasy owners should tune into is top prospect righty Andrew Moore of SEA. He starts vs the Phils Wednesday. He is worth the pickup even if it is just speculative on your bench. He is a control specialist with great command but may not light up the K’s on the scoreboard. You’ll all be sad that this pushed Yovanni Gallardo to the bullpen. Another call-up is on the horizon as well. Remember Mark Leiter? No, not Al Leiter, but Mark, who also pitched in the MLB for a while. He is not coming back, this is his son. Junior Leiter will pitch for the Phils. He is not a top prospect. I took that picture on the left out of my front door. It is my groundhog knocking on the door looking for breakfast.

New injuries and some returning wounded:

The dominoes keep falling, As I mentioned last week, What would a week be like without a Mets pitcher going on the DL? We still don’t know as Zack Wheeler (biceps tendinitis) went down; though Sandy Alderson said he should only miss one start. That means he is done until July 2018, right? New injuries to Martin Perez (fractured thumb), Wily Peralta (calf strain), Jerad Eickhoff,(upper back), Miguel Gonzalez (right shoulder) Matt Shoemaker (strained forearm, yikes), and Bronson Arroyo (right shoulder, may call it a career, PLEASE). Being sent to the minors after a brief experiment are Amir Garrett, AJ Cole (only up for one start), Christian Berkman, Erik Skoglund, and the legendary Buck Farmer. If only I could send my rodent to the DL.

We did get some of the injured troops back recently. This coming week we may see (dates are tentative) Hisashi Iwakuma, John Gray possibly next weekend, Tyler Anderson today @ LAD after a 1 inning relief appearance, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, who pitched this week in Seattle, Cole Hamels MON @ CLE, Trevor Cahill on Rehab, Dillon Gee of MIN, Homer Bailey (remember him) Sat vs Nats, and and King Felix, who pitched well enough to win this Friday @ LAA giving up 3 ER in 6 IP with 8 H, 2 BB, 1 HR, and 6 K’s. Starting rehabs are Charlie Morton, Jered Weaver (not again), Phil Hughes (don’t get excited), Justin Nicolino (c’mon already), and Hector Santiago. Bartolo Colon should be back and the Braves may employ a 6 man rotation until they can sort things out (ie. is Colon all done?), and Doug Fister was pitching well in the minors for the Angels, but they put him on waivers due to his 6/21 opt-out clause and he was picked up by Boston where he will pitch tomorrow against those same Angels. I’m not going near that start but he is worth keeping an eye on pitching for a first place team. Trevor Cahill will again try to pitch next week. Mike Clevenger will come up next week as well. But there is still no timetable for CC Sabathia, Danny Duffy, Nate Karns, Noah Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner, and Matt Harvey for the foreseeable future.

What to expect in 2017: (If you read this part in last week’s article, skip down to week 12.)

Criteria Used: Platoon splits, LH/RH, Day/Night, Month, Half, stadium splits, team batting against splits, metrics like GB/FB rate, K & BB rates, Babip, wOBA, FIP, Trends, etc. Sources are Fan Graphs, Baseball Reference, Fantrax, ESPN and more.

Pitchers from the under 50% ownership group – I’ll list three or four pitchers, less than 50% owned who I believe are primed for a good start the following week, or better yet two good starts. I’ll list two or so pitchers that are less than 20% owned and look like a good choice based on the above criterion.

DFS Suggestions – I’ll pick out a few aces to avoid in DFS and a couple who should be in your lineup, especially if I see a great contrarian start.

WEEK TWELVE – Week 13: JUNE 26 through JULY 2: Yes, July! Get the pool open already!

Spotters from the <50% owned crowd:

***TWO START PITCHER***Sean Newcomb, LHSP, ATL (owned ESPN, 59% owned in Fantrax) @ SD, TUE 6/27 & @ OAK SUN 7/2: I’m ready to put Newcomb on my lists now after he

started his MLB career with three quality starts. In those three starts, he has an ERA of 1.96 after giving up only 1 HR in those three starts. His 13/7 K/BB is less than overwhelming, but in the minors, he had a K/9 over 10.0 K’s and his walk rates were far worse, well over 4.0 BB/9. So, don’t assume he is not a strikeout pitcher, just a young player working on his command. He’s on the road this week, facing SD and OAK. The Padres are 27th in MLB in wOBA against lefties at home, with a .283 mark, and 30th in the MLB against LHSP at home with only 22 runs scored in 295 plate appearances. Oakland is not quite as easy as the Padres as they are 4th in runs scored at home vs LHSP with 49 in 359 plate appearances and a .329 wOBA vs LHSP at home, both good for 12th in MLB. Hurry and grab him, his ownership went from 59% yesterday to 63% today in Fantrax. Padres and A’s – Road Trip!

***TWO START PITCHER***Joe Biagini, RHSP, TOR (6.1% owned ESPN, 46% owned Fantrax) vs BAL MON 6/25 & vs BOS, SAT 7/1: You’ll likely be the only owner in your league looking for Biagini today. At first glance, it appears you’d be crazy to use him as a two-start pitcher next week as his AL East opponents can put up runs, but those match-ups may not be as bad as they look. The Orioles and the Red Sox have both disappointed this season, and are actually below league-average offenses vs right handers. The Orioles have a .3135 wOBA versus righties, away while the Red Sox are at .313, putting them at 17th and 18th, respectively, vs right-handed starters away from home. That being said the Red Sox are still 4th in the MLB in runs scored vs right-handers at home. No matter how you look at it runs count more than wOBA, so if you choose to skip the Boston game I won’t argue that move. Baltimore though is 21st in MLB vs RH away. As for Biagini himself, his 4.45 ERA is inflated by his 6/16 start vs the White Sox where he was blown out giving up 6 ER in only an inning pitched. His ERA before that start was a crisp 3.38 after three consecutive QS. His 1.181 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, and .294 Babip suggest he’s a better pitcher than that ERA. His per nine ratios of .7 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 7.6 K/9, and 1.39 GB/FB rate point to high-level command skills, and explain his low WHIP. He’s faced Balt & Bos six times this season but all as a reliever. In a combined 7.1 innings, he gave up zero runs on 3 hits and no walks. Between you and I and the groundhog, his ownership is due to launch. Grab him now.

Jason Hammel, RHSP, KC (6.1% owned ESPN, 45% owned Fantrax) vs MIN, SAT 7/1: The Twins are a better hitting team than anyone thought they’d be. Against right-handed SP’s away from home, their .333 wOBA is 7th in baseball. However, as strong as that wOBA is, the Twins are 23rd in MLB with 114 runs vs righties away. This start will also be part of a double-header with the Twins, so there is a chance the lineup Hammel faces will be stripped down as well. We know Hammel is not a stud but he has been one of the more durable starters in baseball averaging 30 starts per season for the last three years. He’s actually having one of his worst seasons statistically since he became a full-time SP in 2009, posting a 4.83 ERA & 1.430 WHIP. Since the calendar turned to June he has been pitching far better than he did in April and May with a 3-0 record and 2.32 ERA, .922 WHIP in 4 quality starts, lowering his ERA from 6.18 to 4.83 in the process. Five of his last six starts have been QS in which he has 26/3 K/BB in 26.2 IP.

Jordan Zimmerman, RHSP, DET (6.1% owned ESPN, 55% owned Fantrax) vs CLE, SAT 7/1: While no one was looking, Zimmermann posted four consecutive quality starts and five of his last six. The past three (SEA, HOU, & BOS) coming against some of the better offenses in the AL, and now they get another against Cleveland in a doubleheader Saturday. In those four consecutive QS, he has gone 1-1 in 26.2 IP with a 2.75 ERA, 21/8 K/BB and given up only two HR, which is not bad for this pitch-to-contact pitcher. Cleveland is 25th in the MLB in runs scored vs righties away, though their wOBA is 9th at .324, so Zim has to continue to keep the ball on the ground and runners off the bases. He does have a 2nd start this week today @ SD which should hopefully go well.

Not for the faint of heart. Pitchers from the abyss:

***TWO START PITCHER***Hyun-Jin, Ryu LHSP, LAD(10% owned ESPN, 39% Owned in Fantrax) vs LAA TUE 6/27 & @ SD SUN 7/1: It’s tough to pass on Ryu this week given his two matchups, though he is also coming off of two solid starts, with five innings and two earned runs in both. He is starting to settle back into a starter’s role as he enters Week 13. The Angels team wOBA vs left handed starters is just .300, putting them 22nd in the MLB. Then he is off to San Diego to face the Padres, who have the worst lineup in the baseball against southpaws, with a pathetic .279 wOBA and 24.5 % K rate vs lefties. Compare that to Ryu’s 21.0% K-rate this year and we may see a gaggle of strikeouts next week. Remember too that the Angels are playing without Mike Trout and have underachievers in Calhoun, Cron, Pujols, and others. The Padres are missing……….haha, a good way to end that sentence.

Tim Adleman, RHSP, CIN (10.7% owned in ESPN, 32% owned Fantrax) vs MIL, TUE 6/27 @ vs CHC, SUN 7/2: Adleman took the loss but pitched a quality start last week vs the Rays. He has really turned his season around tossing five straight quality starts and lowering his ERA from 6.19 to 4.22, with a 1.234 WHIP in the process. His ERA over the past month is 3.30, and he is up to 6 QS on the season now. There may be a correction on the horizon as his Babip is only .250, his FIP is 5.15, and he has a high (4.5%) HR rate with only a 2.25 K/BB. Adleman pitches better vs lefties while most of the Brewers active power hitters are lefty. The Brewers have only a .318 wOBA on the road vs right handers, 11th in the NL.

Mike Montgomery, LHSP, CHC (4.9% owned ESPN & 45% owned Fantrax) @ CIN FRI 6/30: Montgomery, has mostly pitched in relief for the Cubs, but he built his pitch count up to 88 in his June 14 start, so he should be good to let loose this week. He has a 2.47 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 21.3 percent strikeout rate in the past full year. His last two starts resulted in 9 K’s in 9 IP and a 2.56 ERA. He gets the Reds in CIN who are near last in MLB vs Left Handers with a .301 wOBA and are 6th highest in K-Rate at 24.5% vs Lefties.

DFS PLAYERS: You may want to re-think starting him: I was one for two last week rightly calling to sit the Shark, however, my other sit, Jacob deGrom went on to pitch a gem.

Sonny Gray RHSP vs ATL, SAT 7/1:

Jon Lester, LHSP, CHC @ WAS THU, 6/29:

DFS PLAYERS: Match-ups of the week:

Jose Berrios, RHSP, MIN @ KC, SAT 7/1:

Jack deGrom, RHSP, NYM vs PHI, FRI 6/30:

My crusade for 2017/2018: Pitchers and other players seem to be getting injured so fast that most leagues don’t have enough DL spots to accommodate them all. Roster limits force tough decisions which are a good thing for competitive league balance and showcasing owner skills, but this season’s overcrowded Disabled-Lists have proven to test traditional capacity at times. I think it is a combination of pitchers being more injury prone, but also the abundant use of the new in 2016 7 day concussion DL, and the new in 2017 10 day DL rule that has MLB teams easing their own roster limitations at the expense of our fantasy limitations and resources. In light of the 7 day & 10 day DL rules, I recommend any owners who have 2 to 4 DL spots to petition the League Manager to increase the number of DL spots to whatever is appropriate for that format. Most good LM’s won’t change rules or settings once the season starts, and rightly so, but at least it will be in place for 2018. Don’t feel victimized by the new rule. Adjust to it.

Thanks for reading and good luck in week thirteen, especially with your pitching. If you have a question about these or any other SP match-ups next week don’t hesitate to leave a message in the comments, write me, or check out my “Pick Your Spots” thread every Sunday on the /r/fantasybaseball Sub-Reddit where I’ll talk starting pitching all day.

joseph.iannone021@gmail.com @JoeIannone2 Twitter

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