“I once read a book and my whole life changed”

- The New Life, Orhan Pamuk

Immanuel Kant

Avid readers would not disregard the notion that a book can change one’s life. Can a book also change the lives of an entire generation? Similarly, can an original idea, a spark of ingenuity change the future? There are a number of immensely influential books in the history of literature and science. Books that has sent ripples across socio-economical as well as scientific circles and nudged the course of history. Some of the ones that might immediately pop to our minds are: The Communist Manifesto (Karl Marx), Origin of the Species (Charles Darwin), Works of Shakespeare, Wealth of the Nations (Adam Smith), Critique of Pure Reason (Immanuel Kant), Theory of Relativity (Albert Einstein), 1984 (George Orwell), Republic (Plato), Rubaiyat (Ömer Khayyam).

When we imagine what the future holds, we tend to think about the first degree changes; only the direct effects of new technological, socio-economical and scientific breakthroughs. Many people think that the usage of self-driving cars, Cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence will be widespread in the future. Such technological progress never takes place in a vacuum though. It’s not logical to assume that everything about the society and environment at large will be just about the same, but just the cars will be replaced by self-driving ones, money with its digital counterpart, and workers with robots. As each technology is going through its hype and maturity cycles, it goes through many intermediate steps that involves interaction with society and other technologies. This interaction is not one-sided either; how humans emotionally react to a technology, how they use, don’t use or even misuse that technology, or how they repurpose that technology are some ways that technology is shaped as it progresses.

For instance, it was widely anticipated that a radio with images would be the next step after the invention of the radio. This is a first-degree prediction regarding the future. Not many thought about the second-degree effect that individuality would increase as a result of widespread TV’s and people’s tendency to spend many hours alone across a screen. A rise of materialism triggered by more commercials, proliferation of celebrity culture, photogenic politicians winning the elections were other second degree effects. Materialism and increased brand recognition enabling larger corporations, shrinking of local businesses, and an increased white-collar service workforce were maybe some of the third-degree effects.

… Video killed the radio star

In my mind and in my car, we can’t rewind we’ve gone too far

Pictures came and broke your heart

Put down the blame on VCR …

- Buggles

Similarly, one speculates that Gutenberg’s invention of the printed press increased reading, which in turn increased the need for eyeglasses. Lens technology progressed and eventually helped the invention of the telescope. And this, in turn, enabled the uncovering of the fact that earth revolved around the sun. Or take the automobiles: during the industrial revolution, it was probably guessed by many that, in the future engines would be used to move carriages instead of horses (first degree). The traffic congestion, accidents were not in people’s minds (second degree). As the distances became more manageable, people moved further and further away from the city and suburbs were born (third degree).