The no bark, no bite FEC

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Quick Fix

— The Federal Election Commission has been without a quorum for 100 days, leaving the federal campaign finance watchdog unable to investigate wrongdoing or provide guidance to campaigns.


— Unite the Country, a pro-Joe Biden super PAC, launched its first television ad of the cycle in Iowa. The ad mentions neither President Donald Trump nor Biden’s Democratic primary opponents.

— GOP Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.) announced he won’t seek reelection in North Carolina after he was drawn into a heavily Democratic district. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx is rolling out television ads, as she tries to ward off a primary challenge in a district drastically different from her old one.

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Days until the POLITICO/PBS NewsHour Democratic primary debate: 10

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 56

Days until the New Hampshire primary: 64

Days until the 2020 election: 330

TopLine

THE ENFORCERS? — The FEC last had a quorum 100 days ago, leaving the country’s top cop for campaign finance off the beat.

“The nation’s election and campaign finance watchdog lacks the ability to bark or bite,” Michael Beckel, the research director at the good governance group Issue One, told Score. “There’s more money than ever flowing in through politics, and the public needs to have faith that bad actors will be scrutinized and penalized.”

Personnel problems is not a new issue for the FEC: Commissioners have as of late stayed on well past when their terms have expired — including all three of the remaining commissioners, because no replacements have been nominated. But thelast time the FEC lacked a quorum for an extended period of time was in 2008, and there’s no end in sight.

“Out in the political world, I think there are some campaigns that are going to push the envelope, with the lack of an FEC quorum,” former commissioner Michael Toner, a Republican, told Score. “I do think the odds are growing that there’s going to be no FEC quorum through the presidential election.”

Among the things the FEC cannot do: approve public financing for presidential candidates, something that Steve Bullock and Beto O’Rourke at least considered before ending their campaigns; advance (or dismiss) any investigations on both old and new complaints; and issue advisory opinions to campaigns. Commissioners “can only have coffee together if they want,” former commissioner Ann Ravel, a Democrat now running for state Senate in California, said. “And they don’t, because there’s such great animosity in that commission.”

In an interview, FEC Chair Ellen Weintraub, a Democrat, stressed to Score that the lack of a quorum could have a ripple effect on clearing a backlog of cases, even once one is restored. “I think people certainly cannot have confidence that violations will be addressed in a timely fashion,” she said. “This is really going to make it harder to get any of our current caseload done on a timely basis.”

The FEC is not in a total stasis, however. Everyone who spoke to Score was quick to point out that campaign finance reports were still due and were still being disclosed, perhaps the agency’s most public duty. And just because there’s no quorum now, it doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way forever. “We’re not in the middle of a legal-free-zone here,” Toner said. “You might not be sanctioned by the FEC now, but you could be a year or two from now.”

The GOP-controlled Senate could, theoretically, end the stalemate whenever it wants. Trump’s nomination of Trey Trainor, a Republican lawyer from Texas, has languished since Sept. 2017 (he was renominated at the beginning of the 116th Congress as well). But some Republicans — including Republican vice chair Caroline Hunter, who wrote a POLITICO Magazine op-ed critical of Weintraub in October — have instead called for a full new slate of nominees to both replace the three commissioners serving past the end of the term and fill the three empty seats. A Senate GOP leadership aide hinted at that being the preferred strategy, telling Score that “the goal has always been to have a full commission. That will take bipartisan cooperation. Discussions continue on how to accomplish the goal” (read the Center for Public Integrity’s Dave Levinthal from September for more on the vacancies).

Presidential Big Board

JUST SUPER — Unite The Country, the pro-Biden super PAC, is up with its first television ad. The ad features a speech from Biden, saying he has “courage” and “stood up for marriage equality,” wrote the Violence Against Women Act and passed an assault weapons ban. POLITICO’s Maya King reported that the buy is $650,000 across digital and cable and will run for the next four weeks — a bit more than what Biden has spent on advertising in the state over the past month.

THE EARLY STATES — The Biden that Iowans see on the trail is different from the one seen on television. “His emotional exchanges have become a hallmark of his events,” POLITICO’s Natasha Korecki wrote. “They help explain his enduring popularity in the polls despite the mangled syntax and frequent flubs.”

Biden also said he didn’t know what his son Hunter Biden was doing in Ukraine at the time in an interview with Axios’ Mike Allen. When asked if he wanted to get to the bottom of it, he said “no, because I trust my son,” and that there was “not one single bit of evidence” to suggest anything wrong was done. He also said his family would be barred from making money overseas if he’s elected president. POLITICO’s Marc Caputo has more on how Biden handled questions about his son in Iowa.

AIRING IT OUT — Elizabeth Warren said she made $1.9 million from private legal work she took on since 1986, POLITICO’s Alex Thompson reported. Warren’s website has her compensation broken down on a case-by-case basis (which POLITICO did not independently verify).

— Pete Buttigieg released a timeline of his work for McKinsey and called for the company to release him from his confidentiality agreement. More from Campaign Pro’s Daniel Strauss (click through for the timeline): “He said most of his work consisted of ‘mathematical analysis, conducting research, and preparing presentations.’”

DIVING HEAD-FIRST — Mike Bloomberg already has “hundreds of staff members working remotely or out of the temporary campaign headquarters in one of Bloomberg’s Beaux-Arts limestone mansions on the Upper East Side of Manhattan,” and is paying “field organizers salaries of $6,000 a month, a 70 percent premium from the going rate of $3,500,” The Washington Post’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Michael Scherer wrote.

STAFFING UP — Andrew Yang’s campaign announced that Julia Rosen of Fireside Campaigns will helm the campaign’s digital strategy and that Ally Letsky of Deliver Strategies will run the campaign’s direct mail efforts.

Down the Ballot

THE NEW MAPS — In not particularly surprising news, Holding announced he won’t seek reelection after he was drawn into a safe blue seat, citing his new district as part of the reason he is stepping away, Campaign Pro’s Ally Mutnick reported. However, Holding did not rule out running for office in the future: “I am also hopeful that, if it is part of the Good Lord’s plan, I will someday return to public office."

Meanwhile, Foxx is hitting the airwaves early, airing a cable ad after her NC-05 was drastically redrawn. The ad started airing on Saturday, according to Advertising Analytics, but the creative was not immediately captured. Foxx could also face a primary challenge. The Shelby Star’s Adam Orr reported last week that Gaston County Commission Chairman Tracy Philbeck said he has been encouraged to run in the district.

THE SENATE MAP — Iowa Values, a dark money nonprofit that promotes Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), “has worked closely with the Iowa Republican to raise money and boost her reelection prospects, a degree of overlap that potentially violates the law,” the AP’s Brian Slodysko reported. “The documents reviewed by the AP, including emails and a strategy memo, not only make clear that the group’s aim is securing an Ernst win in 2020, but they also show Ernst and her campaign worked in close concert with Iowa Values,” including a fundraiser making a request for a donation for the group after Ernst made an introduction.

Brook Ramlet, an adviser to Ernst, called it “fake news” to suggest that the Ernst campaign was not acting in compliance with the spirit and letter of the law.

THE HOUSE MAP — A Democratic county chairman in Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s NJ-02 warned the freshman Democrat that a “no” vote on impeachment could hurt him. “A ‘no’ vote on impeachment will suppress Democratic turnout down-ballot, which my organization cannot sustain,” Atlantic County Democratic Chairman Michael Suleiman wrote in a letter to Van Drew, the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein reported. “Charlie Sandman lost the same seat that you hold for being on the wrong side of the Nixon impeachment, and I do not want to see our party face a similar fate.”

— GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter, who pleaded guilty to one campaign finance charge, said in a statement that he’d resign “shortly after the holidays” from his CA-50 seat, but didn’t give a specific date, POLITICO California’s Jeremy White reported. The decision to wait makes a special election uncertain: “California’s primary election filing deadline was Friday, meaning it’s at Gov. Gavin Newsom’s discretion whether to call a special election.”

Democrat Marisa Calderon, the executive director of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, announced she was running in the district. However, without the damaged Hunter on the ballot, this district will be significantly more difficult for any Democrat to win.

— GOP Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), one of the last remaining Republicans who represent a district Hillary Clinton won in 2016, isn’t sold on impeachment. “The evidence to date indicates to me that he should not have engaged in this type of conduct, for sure, but I’m not sure if that rises to the level of impeachment,” Katko said in a statement to The Syracuse Post-Standard’s Mark Weiner reported. More from Weiner: “Katko said he has not decided if impeachment or some other form of censure would be appropriate for Trump or any president that uses the power of the office for personal or political gain.”

— Pierce Bush, the grandson of the late President George H.W. Bush, will announce his candidacy in TX-22 today, The Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston and Patrick Svitek reported. Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, a Republican, also announced he’d run in the district, per the Houston Chronicle’s Jasper Scherer.

FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — NARAL Pro-Choice America is endorsing Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, who is challenging GOP Rep. David Schweikert in AZ-06. “I'm honored to stand alongside NARAL in ensuring that every woman has autonomy over her own body and has access to quality, affordable, reproductive healthcare,” Tipirneni said in a statement.

ON THE HILL — The House voted 228-187 Friday to pass Democrats’ sweeping voting rights package, H.R. 4 (116), POLITICO Pro’s Eleanor Mueller wrote in to Score. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) was the only Republican to vote in favor of the bill; no Democrat voted against it. The legislation would aim to restore the protections of the Voting Rights Act rolled back by the Supreme Court’s ruling in Shelby County v. Holder. Among its provisions: updating the formula used to determine which states must preclear their voter registration practices and allowing the attorney general to send federal observers anywhere in the U.S. H.R. 4 faces slim chances of passage in the GOP-controlled Senate.

AD WARS — Winning for Women, the GOP group working to elect more women, released a six-figure digital ad campaign targeting six House Democrats over the USMCA. Campaign Pro’s Ally Mutnick has more for Pros on the campaign. More from Ally: "The group has endorsed female candidates candidates running in four the targeted districts ... All six of the races feature at least one well-funded woman running the Republican primary."

— Maine Momentum, the dark money Democratic group, is upping its ad spending targeting Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) through “the end of the year: Now, instead of $180,000 over a three-week period, the group will spend $540,000 on the ads,” POLITICO’s Burgess Everett reported.

THE OUTSIDE GROUPS — The Progressive Turnout Project announced that it plans on spending $45 million in 16 battleground states ahead of the 2020 election. The group is planning on having 66 field offices, all in an effort to reach infrequent Democratic voters.

CODA — SAD HEADLINE OF THE DAY: “Tiny Dixville Notch may see its midnight tradition disappear” from The Boston Globe.

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