As a long time Game of Thrones fan, I’ve had a prediction from pretty early on in the show: Jon Snow will kill Daenerys Targaryen. My reasoning used to be pretty simple. I believe characters in Game of Thrones are based off of history. I think Cersei is Catherine De Medici, Daenerys is Mary, Queen of Scots, and Jon Snow is Elizabeth I.

If you aren’t up to date on the show, there might be spoilers ahead for you.

The theory really started with Cersei Lannister. Her life seems to have a lot of parallels with Catherine De Medici. Both women were born into very wealthy houses, but they were not royalty. They secured their marriages because they brought the crown something it desperately needed: money. Their husbands both died in sporting accidents, with Catherine losing King Henry in a joust, and Cersei losing Robert in a hunting “accident.” Following the deaths of their husbands, young sons came onto the throne. During the time that their children ruled the country, both Cersei and Catherine became key political figures. They both had sons become king. Cersei had Joffrey and Tommen, while Catherine had Francis, Charles, and Henry. All five of these boys died on the throne, with their mother's outliving them. A final parallel, Catherine’s St. Bartholomew’s Day massacre took place in 1572. Catherine De Medici targeted a group of Huguenots (French Calvinist Protestants) while they gathered in Paris to attend a wedding. The massacre lasted several weeks, and killed between 10,000 and 70,000 people. Cersei, of course, dealt with her religious enemies by blowing up the sept while they were all inside (eliminating several political enemies at the same time).

If we assume that Cersei is in fact based off Catherine de Medici, as I believe she is, then that brings up the question of who else would be during this time period. I believe Daenerys would be Mary, Queen of Scots. Daenerys and Mary both became queens shortly after being born. Daenerys and her brother, Viserys, are the only two surviving children of Aerys II (A.K.A, the “Mad King”). King Aerys II died before Daenerys was even born, and given the Targaryen tradition of marrying your siblings, that would make Viserys and Daenerys the rightful King and Queen. Mary Stuart, Queen of Scotland, was six days old when her father, James V of Scotland, died. She became queen immediately. Because of the difficult political times, both these women were sent away from their homeland to be raised elsewhere. Daenerys fled to the Free Cities with her brother to grow up out of the reach of Robert Baratheon, who wished to kill all Targaryens. Similarly, Mary grew up in France when the war between England and Scotland became a threat to her safety. The next parallel is their weddings. Viserys arranged the marriage between his sister and Khal Drogo in order to have Drogo’s army. Viserys intends to use this army to invade and conquer Westeros. Mary, on the other hand, was engaged to Francis, the dauphin of France. Their marriage created a union between France and Scotland, which helped to defend Scotland from England. Both Drogo and Francis die childless not long after their marriages, and both women truly loved their husbands despite having had the marriages arranged for political reasons. After the death of their husbands, both women return to their homeland.

Finally, this brings us to Jon Snow, who I believe is based of Elizabeth I. Jon and Elizabeth are both, arguably, a bastard. Jon was raised thinking he was a bastard his whole life, and will likely have a difficult time convincing the world that he is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark. As if that wouldn’t be hard enough to believe on its own (because everyone already thinks Jon is a bastard), he would also have to convince them that Rhaegar had an annulment to his marriage with Elia Martell, and then legally married Lyanna. In truth, this makes Jon Snow, or should I say Aegon Targaryen, the rightful heir to the throne of Westeros. Meanwhile, Elizabeth’s father, Henry VIII, was married to Queen Katherine of Aragon when he decided his marriage to Katherine was never valid to begin with on the grounds that Katherine had been previously married to Henry’s older brother (who died). The Pope denied his request for annulment/divorce, so Henry broke away from the church, taking all of England with him. He began to refer to Katherine as a Dowager Princess (the proper title for a widowed queen), and married Anne Boleyn. At the time, there was great conflict here. Could the King just declare his marriage annulled against the Pope’s wishes? King Henry made everyone swear “The Oath of Supremacy” agreeing that he could - and those who disagreed were killed. Still, when Anne Boleyn gave birth to Elizabeth, there were many people that still thought Elizabeth was a bastard because the King was married to Katherine and could not take on a second wife. Both Elizabeth and Jon find their way into power. Jon Snow was named King of the North by his own people. Elizabeth waited patiently. Her half-brother Edward died, leaving the crown to Lady Jane Grey. Elizabeth’s half-sister Mary (daughter of Katherine), disposed of Lady Jane and claimed the throne. After Mary’s death, Elizabeth became Queen of England.

Because many people thought Elizabeth was a bastard, some turned their heads to the next in line of succession: Mary, Queen of Scots. Mary’s grandmother was Elizabeth’s aunt (her father’s sister), giving Mary a strong claim to the throne of England. Despite how many thought Mary belonged on the English throne, the two were relatively peaceful and wrote to each other. When Mary’s reign became unstable, Elizabeth even offered Mary support. However, when Mary fled to England, Elizabeth held her prisoner for 19 years. Catholics tried to free Mary and help her win the English throne, but history is unclear on whether or not Mary was aware of these attempts. The English Royal council still suggested Mary be executed, which Elizabeth continued to try to avoid. Eventually, evidence was found against Mary, saying she was involved in one of these plots, and she was put to death. Elizabeth signed the death warrant herself, but was very remorseful about it. If Game of Thrones lines up with history the way I believe it to, Jon Snow will be remorsefully responsible for the death of Daenerys. But that’s just our history.

In Game of Thrones lore/history, there is other evidence. There are many theories suspecting that Jon Snow is the return of Azor Ahai. According to legend, Azor Ahai is a hero who defeated the White Walkers with his sword, Lightbringer. In order to give Lightbringer its power, Azor Ahai had to stab his own wife through the heart. If Jon Snow is the reborn Azor Ahai, he will have to make the same sacrifice and given the season finale, his “wife” (or at least the equivalent) might just be Daenerys.

There is some good news in my theory. Mary, Queen of Scots did give birth to a son before her execution. I know Daenerys says she can’t have children anymore, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she finds herself pregnant. I think Daenerys will give birth to a son before Jon Snow kills her. When all settles down, it’ll be the son of Daenerys and Jon that sits on the Iron Throne in a time of peace.