After missing out on the College Football Playoff in 2014, the Big 12 had better fortune last season, as Oklahoma overcame an early loss to Texas to earn a playoff bid and a trip to the Orange Bowl against Clemson. As the focus shifts to 2016, the Sooners begin this season where they left off and in control of the Big 12. Quarterback Baker Mayfield headlines a dynamic offense, and two huge non-conference games – Houston and Ohio State – provide opportunities for the Sooners to earn marquee wins to build the playoff resume.

While Oklahoma is a clear favorite by Athlon Sports for the Big 12 title, TCU is a team to watch as a potential sleeper. The Horned Frogs must replace quarterback Trevone Boykin, but there’s still plenty of talent for coach Gary Patterson to build around, including a defense that could be the best in the conference.

Oklahoma State, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas State are all projected by Athlon Sports to earn bowl bids this season. Iowa State should show improvement under new coach Matt Campbell, but the Cyclones face a tough schedule. Kansas should break into the win column for second-year coach David Beaty after an 0-12 record last fall.

5 Key Questions That Will Shape the Big 12 in 2016

1. Back-to-Back Titles for Oklahoma?

Repeating as a conference champion is never easy, but it’s hard to find a reason to pick against Oklahoma in the Big 12. The Sooners return a solid core of talent with 12 returning starters, and the offense is led by Heisman Trophy candidate and quarterback Baker Mayfield. The combination of coordinator Lincoln Riley and Mayfield provided a much-needed spark for the Oklahoma offense last fall, and there’s optimism for this unit to be just as dynamic in 2016. The one-two punch of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon might be the nation’s best backfield duo, and Dede Westbrook, Mark Andrews and Penn State graduate transfer Geno Lewis headline a solid group of receivers. But there are question marks for Riley to address this offseason. Will a clear No. 1 receiver emerge to replace Sterling Shepard? And how will the offensive line jell after losing two starters? Each level of the defense suffered a key loss, but end Charles Walker, linebacker Jordan Evans and cornerback Jordan Thomas are three of the Big 12’s top returning defenders. With matchups against Houston and Ohio State in non-conference play, along with games against TCU and Texas before the midway point of the season, Oklahoma should quickly find out where it stacks up nationally in its quest to get back to the playoff. There are holes to fill for coach Bob Stoops, but the Sooners are a heavy favorite to win the Big 12 and push for a playoff trip once again.

Related: Athlon Sports 2016 College Football Team Rankings No. 1 to 128

2. TCU or Oklahoma State at No. 2?

While Oklahoma was a clear favorite in Athlon’s Big 12 prediction meeting, there was plenty of discussion between TCU or Oklahoma State for the next spot. The edge eventually went to the Horned Frogs, but both teams are projected as top 25 teams this season. Why TCU over Oklahoma State? Take a look at the schedule. The Horned Frogs catch Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech at home, while the Cowboys have road trips to Baylor, Kansas State, TCU and Oklahoma. Additionally, Oklahoma State had a bit of good fortune on its side with a plus-13 turnover margin and a 4-0 mark in one-score games last year. Despite losing standout end Emmanuel Ogbah, the Cowboys should be one of the Big 12’s best on defense. Quarterback Mason Rudolph and a deep group of receivers will carry the offense, but coach Mike Gundy’s team has to run the ball better and improve the line to push Oklahoma or TCU in the standings. The Horned Frogs have to break in a new quarterback – likely Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill – and retool the offensive line. However, there’s a deep cast of skill players in place, and the defense returns four starters, while four key players return from season-ending injuries. If Hill settles in at quarterback, TCU will have a chance to spoil Oklahoma’s run at back-to-back titles in the Big 12.

College Football: Breaking Down Athlon’s 2016 Top 25





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3. Reassessing Baylor for 2016

The fallout from the scandal that has rocked Baylor’s football program will continue well into the 2016 season and beyond. Art Briles transformed the Bears into a national title contender, but there will be a cloud of uncertainty hanging over this program in 2016, as interim coach Jim Grobe attempts to keep the team in contention for the Big 12 title. Even before the off-field issues cost Briles his job, Baylor had significant personnel concerns to address on both lines of scrimmage. Rebuilding both of those units will be an even bigger challenge with the departure of junior college recruits B.J. Autry (OL) and Jeremy Faulk (DL), while the status of the rest of the 2016 signing class is up in the air. Quarterback Seth Russell is expected to return to full strength from a neck injury, and there’s no shortage of skill talent in place with wide receiver KD Cannon and running backs Johnny Jefferson and Shock Linwood. Grobe is a good choice to clean up the program for 2016, but how will his style mesh with the current roster and schemes in place? Additionally, how much will the ongoing uncertainty weigh on this team this fall? After spring practice, Baylor was considered a top 10-15 team for 2016. Fast forward to June and it’s fair to wonder if the Bears will finish as a top 25 team this fall.

Related: Explaining Athlon's Big 12 Predictions for 2016

4. Texas…The Big 12’s Mystery Team

With an 11-14 record in his two seasons at Texas, it’s no secret there’s a lot of pressure on coach Charlie Strong. While the Longhorns continue to reel in solid recruiting classes and have a promising core of talent in place, Strong needs a good season to show the program is clearly headed in the right direction. A breakout year from Texas wouldn’t be a surprise, especially if the pieces fall into place under new offensive play-caller Sterlin Gilbert. The Longhorns are hitting the reset button on offense after averaging only 26.4 points a game in 2015, and true freshman quarterback Shane Buechele should provide stability under center. Buechele needs time to get acclimated to the FBS level, and Gilbert can ease his quarterback into the starting role by leaning on the one-two punch of running backs D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren. More weapons need to emerge at receiver, but the Longhorns are starting to build a good foundation in the trenches. Texas finished fifth in the Big 12 in scoring defense (30.3 ppg allowed) in 2015, and the back seven could take a big step forward with the emergence of sophomores Malik Jefferson (LB), Holton Hill (CB) and Davante Davis (CB). With a non-conference schedule of Notre Dame and California, along with road trips to Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas Tech, the path to marked improvement in the win column isn’t easy. However, if the offense improves as expected and the young talent on defense delivers, the Longhorns will easily exceed Athlon’s projected finish of No. 7 in the Big 12.

5. Defensive Question Marks at Texas Tech and West Virginia

With uncertainty surrounding Baylor and Texas still trying to put the right pieces in place, Texas Tech or West Virginia has an opportunity to surprise in the final Big 12 standings. However, both teams must rely on their offense to win games, while the defense looks to fill major voids. Offense hasn’t been the problem for Texas Tech in recent years, and there’s no shortage of firepower in Lubbock with the return of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Coach Kliff Kingsbury has to restock the trenches and find a go-to receiver to replace Jakeem Grant, but the offense shouldn’t miss a beat. Coordinator David Gibbs is the right coach to help Texas Tech’s defense take a step forward, and there’s a lot of work ahead this offseason after giving up 43.6 points a game in 2015. Each level of the defense has significant concerns, but the Red Raiders have two potential impact transfers up front (Kolin Hill and Ondre Pipkins), and a few sophomores – Breiden Fehoko, Jah’Shawn Johnson and D’Vonta Hinton – providing hope for improvement. West Virginia’s offense returns eight starters and needs more consistency out of quarterback Skyler Howard to alleviate concerns on a defense that features a rebuilt back seven. How quickly will both teams find the right answers on defense?

College Football: Others Receiving Votes





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Big 12 Team Previews for 2016

National Rank: 25 71 99 48 6 National Rank: 24 17 43 42 40

Visit the Athlon Sports Online Store to order a copy of the 2016 Big 12 Preview Magazine, which features in-depth analysis and previews for all 10 teams, predictions, rankings and features to prepare for the upcoming year.



Big 12 Predictions for 2016

Big 12 2016 Superlatives and Season Predictions