Rep. Patrick Murphy listens as Sen. Marco Rubio answers a question during their Senate debate. | AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee Clinton leads by 4 and Rubio by 6 in new Florida poll

Florida voters appear ready to ticket-split in favoring Democrat Hillary Clinton for president and Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in his reelection, according to a new survey of likely voters from the University of North Florida.

In the presidential race, Clinton leads Donald Trump 43-39 when Libertarian Gary Johnson (6 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (3 percent) were polled by UNF. But Clinton’s 4-point lead shrinks to 2 in a head-to-head matchup against Trump. That’s well within the 3.8 error margin for the poll of 696 likely voters.


“There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41–38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably,” said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

Though Republicans and Democrats each were exactly 40 percent of the poll respondents, Binder wondered if the final election will bring out slightly more Democrats because they’re turning out in bigger numbers than usual and casting more early and absentee ballots relative to this point in the election.

As of Wednesday morning, 2.5 million people had already voted, with Republicans still holding an edge over Democrats in ballots cast. Republicans accounted for about 41 percent of the pre-Election Day ballots cast compared to the Democrats 40.5 percent. Usually, Republicans have a bigger lead because their voters are more accustomed and adept at casting absentee ballots by mail.

But Democrats are catching up and, after this upcoming first full weekend of in-person early voting, many expect the total number of Democratic ballots to exceed Republican ones.

“If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida,” Binder said.

Most Florida polls this month have shown Clinton ahead. A Bloomberg Politics’ survey released Wednesday showed Trump winning by 2 points. Unlike the UNF poll that had the same number of Democratic and Republican respondents, the Bloomberg survey had more Republicans than Democrats.

But Rubio appears as if he might survive. He leads Congressman Patrick Murphy, 49-43 percent. And he has yet to trail in a Florida poll in months.

“Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy,” Binder said.

UNF also polled a medical-marijuana initiative and found it received 73 percent support.

“This is down four percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2,” Binder said.