Lucia, Minnesota, and Coupon Collectors

by Adam Wodon/Managing Editor (@CHN_AdamWodon)

The departure of Don Lucia as head coach of Minnesota solicits another pro-coach column from yours truly. News at 11.

But this is not going to be a paean to Lucia specifically.

Well, it will be a little, at first.

Lucia will be missed. He was great to deal with, even when I disagreed with him, such as the ill-fated Big Ten age limit change. He gets big kudos from me for knowing what the Pairwise was and how it worked long before most other coaches, back at a time when I beat my head against the wall daily on that topic. And he ran a model program with integrity.

(He also always wins points from me for overcoming the absurd barbs of thin-skinned doofus New York Islanders general manager Garth Snow when it came to Kyle Okposo's mid-season departure in 2007. The Islanders happen to be my favorite team so I've always been repeatedly horrified how Snow dealt with NCAA players, in terms of scouting and especially by criticizing Lucia for no reason. He said Lucia couldn't develop Okposo right, then went out and drafted Minnesota D-man Aaron Ness the next year anyway. Shake my head.)

Attendance has waned at Mariucci Arena, thanks in large part to ticket prices (definitely a valid complaint) and fans' unnecessary angst over leaving the old WCHA. Neither of these things have anything to do with Lucia, yet fans see increased apathy, and it snowballs, and somehow that's on him.

All of which is not to say he should still be head coach. According to his official comments, it was his decision to step down all along to spend more time with his family. And that's great. And if there was a push from the administration, then, well, he had a good run. Sometimes, it's time. I have written many articles in the past defending Lucia's job at Minnesota, just as I have for some other coaches, including one just last week about Mark Dennehy. As I said then, we tend to defend coaches, and some deserve it more than others. Maybe this was a dumb idea, like Merrimack's, but I'm not close enough to it in this case to say. In this case, let's move on.

What I will do, however, is blast the entitlement mindset that some fans have. Things that led to Lucia being treated pretty ridiculously by a subset of people. I guess in a world where people send death threats to high school kids for being upset over their friends being murdered, I shouldn't be surprised.

Of course, most Gophers fans are not like that. Not at all. But some were more vicious than others. And even those with legitimiate gripes strike me as not really understanding the reality of today's college hockey.

A Nationwide Phenomenon

This dynamic between expectations and reality is not just at Minnesota, but we can use it as our case study for now.

Start with this. How many programs now have full support, resources, facilities and expectations to reach Frozen Fours on a regular basis?

There are 60 schools in Division I right now. Of those, I put 18 in that top-tier category. This is very subjective, but is good for argument's sake.

Group A (18)

Minnesota, Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin,

Cornell, Quinnipiac, Harvard,

Boston College, Boston University, Providence, New Hampshire

St. Cloud State, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Miami, Nebraska-Omaha,

The big question is this: Of those 18, how many could you say this for 15 years ago? For certain, take out Notre Dame, Providence, Miami, UNO, St. Cloud State and Quinnipiac.

Now, I put another 18 schools into a second tier, where the expections and/or resources are not quite on that highest level, but they are either

- on the way up to it

- trying to get back there

- or the type of program that expects to make major runs in cycles

Group B (18)

Penn State, Ohio State,

Clarkson, RPI, St. Lawrence, Colgate, Union, Yale,

Northeastern, Lowell, UMass, Maine, Vermont,

Western Michigan, Colorado College,

Minnesota State, Bowling Green, Bemidji State

Of those, 15 years ago, a few of these schools barely existed in D-I, if at all. Union and Yale, two recent national champions, were afterthoughts. Lowell, UMass and Northeastern were not players.

This is just 15 years ago we're talking about. Or, in other words, the last time Minnesota won a national championship.

Then there's the Minnesota schools alone. This really seems to draw the ire of Gophers fans. I had one guy ask me "when was the last time Minnesota was the best school even in the state, a decade ago?" Well, no, they were a No. 1 NCAA seed just last friggin' year and made the 2014 national final!! Holy heck.

But the days of Minnesota completely dominating the state are over. Get. Used. To. It.

This is not a knock on the Gophers, it's a credit to the other schools.

Fifteen years ago, Minnesota State and Bemidji State were just starting D-I existences. The other two Minnesota schools, St. Cloud State and Minnesota-Duluth, are in much better shape in many ways today than they were 15 years ago.

Even if you allow that the University of Minnesota should get the majority of in-state blue chippers (i.e. high-round NHL Draft picks) — which is a debateable point unto itself — that still leaves four aggressive, highly-viable schools going after good recruits throughout the state. And, of course, other schools around the country recruit into Minnesota as well. The days when Minnesota had its run of the place are over, and they are not coming back any time soon, if ever.

Furthermore, while Minnesota still produces more D-I players than any other state, that gap has closed as places all around the country develop players.

Coupon Collector's Problem

So, let's do some math.

Make believe that every single one of those 18 schools in Group A were equally strong at any given time. Remember, this is the cream of the crop. If just these 18 schools could possibly win a national title and make Frozen Fours, that means you would win one championship every 18 years and reach the Frozen Four 4.5 times.

Well, in Don Lucia's 19-year tenure, the Gophers won two titles, and reached the Frozen Four 5 times.

Now, throw the next 18 from Group B into the mix — a group that, mind you, has two recent national champions in it (Yale and Union). Sprinkle in some of those teams making Frozen Four runs now and then, and suddenly, your ability to make it goes down even further. On average, for argument's sake, let's just say that teams from Group A would be expected to make three Frozen Fours in 18 years.

Even if they were all equally powerful.

Now, math majors are freaking out right now, because what I said is not even technically accurate. It's worse than that. If all 18 schools were equally powerful, odds are many schools would not win at all in years.

This is what's known as the Coupon Collector's Problem. (I'm not going to explain it all, mainly because I can't, but click the link if you care.)

The point is, even with 18 equally possible outcomes, some of those outcomes will not happen for a long time. It is expected, mathematically, to take much greater than 100 selections (i.e. years, in this case) for all 18 to occur at least once.

In other words, a team that is doing absolutely nothing wrong, could go 100 years without winning a national championship. Yet, as the irrational human beings we are, we try to ascribe every reason imaginable to this: "Our coach is a moron" - "our administration doesn't care about winning" - "players from xyz are soft" - "that coach can't win the big one" - blah blah blah.

Now, of course, these are humans and not coupons. And there are going to be fluctuations in actual coaching, recruiting and playing ability, caused by myriad factors.

Enjoy

Minnesota absolutely has a right to be in Group A — but so do 17 other fan bases. There is no higher Group. You can't all win the national title every year. So, expecting anything close is folly.

Bottom line: Get over yourselves. And yeah I'm talking to you New Hampshire fans, North Dakota fans, and Maine fans, and Wisconsin fans, and a lot of others, and anyone else who criticizes or mocks those programs. You should always strive to be the best, it's how you react to being among the best but not necessarily winning that year — that's the issue.

There's a ton of quality programs out there right now, and that is only going to increase. We live in a golden age of college hockey, despite the quibbles people may have here or there. Enjoy it for heaven's sake.