EXCLUSIVE

Conor McGregor will almost certainly cop a plea in his malicious mischief case, and the deal may include a felony ... law enforcement sources connected with the case tell TMZ.

McGregor has been charged with felony criminal mischief in addition to 3 counts of misdemeanor assault and attempted assault. Conor did $8,000 worth of damage to the tour bus when he threw a dolly at the vehicle, shattering the window and injuring 3 passengers.

Our law enforcement sources say as of now ... there's a good chance the deal offered will be felony criminal mischief. In other words, prosecutors will make the offer and Conor will have 2 choices ... accept it or go to trial.

One source in contact with Conor and familiar with the case says the UFC fighter's team is well aware ... going to trial is too risky ... a conviction is all but certain.

If Conor pleads no contest or guilty to felony criminal mischief, he could go back to court after 1 year and ask the judge to reduce the conviction to a misdemeanor, assuming he keeps his nose clean.