Electoral College Map. 9/10/2016. TRUMP 275 | Hillary 205 | Toss Up 58

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Made by http://StatesPoll.com



Based on General Election Match Up Polls.



(TRUMP vs Hillary )



Electoral Map 9/10/2016



TRUMP 275 | Hillary 205 | Toss Up 58

References and detail below,



Considering Turnouts, Which State: TRUMP has 2% leads, I classify it as ‘lean to TRUMP’ (when TRUMP is behind, until 4% gap = Swing States.)

Because he has an edge of turnouts for sure.



Plus, if Current poll is skewed too much. I also considered of that factor.



TRUMP already proved it GOP Primary&Caucus.(Especially in Swing States. (Avg poll numbers from Real Clear Politics.)

NH Primary. (avg 31% on the Polls -> Primary Day 35.3% +4.3%)

NV Caucus. (avg 42% on the Polls -> Caucus Day 45.9% +.39%)

Florida Primary. ( avg 43.0% on the Polls -> Primary Day 45.8% +2.8%)



Pennsylvania. ( avg 48.3% on the Polls -> Primary Day 58.1% +9.8%)





1. Toss Up Swing States : Total 58 Electoral Votes

1) Maine Statewide (2 Electoral votes)

(1) SurveyUSA, 9/4-9/10, 779 LV



http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25



Hillary 42% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 9% | Stein 5%

(2) Ipsos/Reuters (8/26-9/15) 213 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/



Hillary 41% | TRUMP 40%

(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way, TRUMP takes +2-3% edge. So it could be adjusted as TRUMP +1~2%





2) Michigan: 16 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/2-9/15) 644 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/



TRUMP 44% | Hillary 44%



(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way, TRUMP takes +2-3% edge. So it could be adjusted as TRUMP +2~3%. Even Nate silver Adjusted as TRUMP +1%)





(2) EPIC-MRA (9/10-9/13) 600 LV



http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/15/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-michigan-poll/90381296/



Hillary 38% | TRUMP 35% | Johnson 10% | Stein 4%





3) New Hampshire: (4 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters, 8/26-9/15, 176 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/



Hillary 48% | TRUMP 39%





(2) Marist, 9/6-9/8, 737 LV



https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016



Hillary 39% | TRUMP 37% | Johnson 15% | Stein 3%





4) New Mexico(5 Electoral votes)



(1) Ipsos/Reuters (8/26-9/15) 141 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/



TRUMP 43% | Hillary 38%







(1) Google Consumer Survey (9/7-9/13) 219 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/



Hillary 42% | TRUMP 28% | Johnson 13%







5) Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/9-9/15, 2016 ) 423 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/



Hillary 46% | TRUMP 44%

(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way PA Poll, TRUMP takes +2% edge. So it could be adjusted as tied.)



(2) Google Consumer Survey (9/7-9/13) 831 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/



TRUMP 36% | Hillary 34% | Johnson 9%





6) Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/2-9/15, 2016 ) 533 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/



Hillary 43% | TRUMP 40%



(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way PA Poll, TRUMP takes +2% edge. So it could be adjusted as Hillary +1% ~ Tied.)







1-2. Swing States which are lean to TRUMP : Total 63 Electoral votes

1) Colorado(9 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) Emerson (9/9-9/13) 600 LV

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b53ca6b673c14cdab9d68832bd7e74cb.pdf



TRUMP 42% | Hillary 38% | Johnson 13% | Stein 2%

This Poll is skewed. DEM: +2.7% REP: -1.6%



Adjusted: TRUMP +10%: http://statespoll.com/post/150477326830



(2) Ipsos/Reuters (9/2-9/15) 421 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/



TRUMP 43% | Hillary 40%



(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way, TRUMP takes +2-3% edge. So it could be converted as Tied or TRUMP +5-6%)







2) Iowa (6 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (8/26-9/15) 347 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/



TRUMP 49% | Hillary 41%



(2) Monmouth (9/12-9/14) 404 LV



http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_091516/



TRUMP 45% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 8% | Stein 2%





3) Florida(29 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) CNN, 9/7-9/12, 788 LV



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf



TRUMP 47% | Hillary 44% | Johnson 6% | Stein 1%



(2) Reuters/Ipsos , 9/9-9/15, 722 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus



TRUMP 50% | Hillary 46% |



(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way, TRUMP takes +2-3% edge. So it could be adjusted as TRUMP +6%. )







4) Maine 2nd District (1 Electoral votes)

(1) SurveyUSA, 9/4-9/10, 397 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine-2/



TRUMP 47% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 8%

(2) Emerson College, 9/2-9/5, 400 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine-2/



TRUMP 41% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 14%





5) Nevada (6 Electoral votes)

(1) Monmouth (9/11-9/13) 406 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/



TRUMP 44% | Hillary 42% | Johnson 8%

(2) Ipsos/Reuters (8/26-9/15) 293 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/



TRUMP 41% | Hillary 38% |

(3) Google Consumer Survey (9/7-9/13) 207 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/



TRUMP 36% | Hillary 28% | Johnson 13%





6) North Carolina (15 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 779 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/



TRUMP 38% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 8%





(2) Ipsos/Reuters, 9/9-9/15, 484 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/



Hillary 46% | TRUMP 44%

(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way, TRUMP takes +2-3% edge. So it could be adjusted as tied or TRUMP +1%. )









7) Ohio (18 Electoral votes)

(1) Suffolk, 9/12-9/14, 500 LV

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/67568.php#.V9zZj60zzCe



TRUMP 42% | Hillary 39% | Johnson 4% | Stein 1%







(2) Ipsos/Reuters, 9/9-9/15, 450 LV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/



Hillary 47% | TRUMP 44%

(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way, TRUMP takes +2-3% edge. So it could be adjusted as tied or TRUMP +1%. )





(3) Bloomberg, Selzer 9/7-9/13, 802LV



https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r2.771xfmKOI/v0



TRUMP 44% | Hillary 39% | Johnson 10% | Stein 3%







(4) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 828LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/



TRUMP 34% | Hillary 31% | Johnson 8%







(5) CNN, 9/7-9/12, 769 LV



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/ohiopoll.pdf



TRUMP 46% | Hillary 41% | Johnson 8% | Stein 2%







1-3. Swing States which are lean to Hillary : Total 23 Electoral votes





1) Minnesota (10 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/2-9/15) 537 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/minnesota/#plus



Hillary 44% | TRUMP 34%

(2) Google Consumer Surveys 9/71-9/13, 426 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/minnesota/



Hillary 34% | TRUMP 26% | Johnson 11%







2) Virginia: 13 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/9-9/15) 435 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/



Hillary 47% | TRUMP 38%

(2) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 560 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/



Hillary 37% | TRUMP 31% | Johnson 9%



(3) University of Mary Washington, 9/6-9/12, 685 LV



https://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2016/09/UMW-VA-Survey-2016_First-Release-Topline.pdf



Hillary 40% | TRUMP 37% | Johnson 8% | Stein 1%

(4) PPP, 9/9-9/11, 878 LV



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_91316.pdf



Hillary 45% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2%





2. Basic Red States for TRUMP: 164 Electoral Votes



Alabama(9),Alaska(3), Arkansas(6), Wyoming(3)

Idaho(4), Indiana(11),Kansas(6),Kentucky(8),Louisiana(8),West Virginia(5)

Mississippi(6) Missouri(10),Montana(3),Nebraska(4),South Carolina(9) Texas(38)NorthDakota(3),Oklahoma(7),SouthDakota(3),Tennessee(11),Utah(6)

2-2. Kinda Red States which are lean to TRUMP : 27 Electoral Votes

1) Arizona: 11 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/2-9/15) 467 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/



TRUMP 46% | Hillary 39%

(2) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 601 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/



TRUMP 35% | Hillary 34% | Johnson 11%



(3) Marist, 9/6-9/8, 649 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/



TRUMP 40% | Hillary 38% | Johnson 12%







2) Georgia: 16 Electoral votes

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/9-9/15 ) 539 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/georgia/



TRUMP 48% | Hillary 40%



(2) Savvy 9/14, 568 LV



http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/OS-GA-General-9.15.16.pdf



TRUMP 46% | Hillary 42% | Johnson 10% | Stein 2%



(3) Emerson 9/9-9/13, 600 LV



http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b53ca6b673c14cdab9d68832bd7e74cb.pdf



TRUMP 45% | Hillary 39% | Johnson 6% | Stein 3%



(4) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 542 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/georgia/



TRUMP 40% | Hillary 31% | Johnson 8%











3. Basic Blue States for Hillary: 143 Electoral Votes



California(55),Delaware(3),DC(3),Hawaii(4),Illinois(20)

Maine-CD1(1),Maryland(10),Massachusettes(11),



New York(29),Rhode Island(4),Vermont(3)



3-2. Kinda Blue States which are lean to Hillary : 40 Electoral Votes

1) Connecticut(7 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (8/26-9/15) 456 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/connecticut/#plus



Hillary 47% | TRUMP 37%

(2) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 304 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/connecticut/



Hillary 42% | TRUMP 26% | Johnson 9%



2) New Jersey(14 Electoral votes)

(1) Ipsos/Reuters (9/2-9/15 ) 880 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/



Hillary 49% | TRUMP 33%



(2) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 729 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/



Hillary 36% | TRUMP 34% | Johnson 6%

3) Oregon(7 Electoral votes)



(1) Ipsos/Reuters (8/26-9/15 ) 508 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/oregon/



Hillary 44% | TRUMP 41%



(This one is a Heads up match. generally on 4-way, TRUMP takes +2-3% edge. So it could be adjusted as Hillary +1% or tied.)



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/oregon/



Hillary 42% | TRUMP 30% | Johnson 7%







4) Washington(12 Electoral votes)

(1) Google Consumer Surveys 9/7-9/13, 613 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/washington/



Hillary 44% | TRUMP 24% | Johnson 11%

(2) Ipsos/Reuters (9/2-9/15 ) 460 LV



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/washington/



Hillary 47% | TRUMP 37%

