PREMIER Denis Napthine faces a massive challenge to overcome a four-point gap in the polls and win a second term in office.

With this week marking 100 days to the state election, a Herald Sun/Galaxy opinion poll has revealed Labor’s Daniel Andrews is on track to be Victoria’s next premier with the ALP holding a 52-48 per cent lead over the Napthine Government. The poll result, which Liberal and Labor strategists said was in line with their own polling, sets the scene for a bitter political fight in the lead-up to the November 29 election.

Today’s poll also delivers a major blow to Dr Napthine’s hopes of a come-from-behind victory with a finding that 62 per cent of voters rate Labor’s signature policy of removing Melbourne’s 50 worst level crossings as more important than the Government’s East West Link project, which is favoured by only 28 per cent.

A senior Government source said the poll was “about right” and “would have been a lot worse a month ago”.

If Labor maintains its two-party-preferred vote of 52 per cent across the electorate, the resulting 3.6 per cent swing would hand the party a 12-seat majority in the Legislative Assembly.

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Such a swing would see Labor picking up the Liberal seats of Forest Hill, Mordialloc, Frankston, Carrum and Bentleigh, and retaining the seats of Bellarine, Ripon, Monbulk, Wendouree and Yan Yean, which have become ­notionally Liberal under last year’s redistribution.

Since the last state election in 2010, the Government’s primary vote has fallen almost 5 per cent to 40 per cent, while Labor’s vote is up almost 2 per cent to 38 per cent.

The Greens vote is on 12 per cent, virtually unchanged since 2010, while Victorians are not flocking to Clive Palmer, with only 3 per cent of people planning to vote for the billionaire’s Palmer United Party.

In a sign the Federal Government’s woes are affecting the State Government’s re-election chances, one in three Victorians said they were less likely to vote for Dr Napthine because of the performance of the Abbott Government.

The good news for Dr Napthine is that 41 per cent of voters prefer him to Daniel Andrews as premier, compared with the 33 per cent who favour the Opposition Leader.

Another good sign for a Government seeking re-­election is there has been a big turnaround in the number of people who think Victoria is heading in the right direction compared to the last Herald Sun/Galaxy poll in February.

In February, 46 per cent thought the state was heading in the wrong direction while only 43 per cent thought we were on the right track.

But in this poll a majority — 51 per cent — think Victoria is going in the right direction compared with 37 per cent who feel the state is going the wrong way.

Voters were relatively evenly divided on the question of who would better protect Victorians’ jobs with 39 per cent saying Dr Napthine and 38 per cent saying Mr Andrews.

But on the question of who would be better at keeping the CFMEU in check, Dr Napthine was the clear winner with 47 per cent favouring him on the question ahead of 23 per cent who backed Mr Andrews.

james.campbell@news.com.au

WHAT VOTERS SAY IN THE GALAXY POLL

1) If a state election for Victoria was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

The Liberal Party ......................35 per cent

The Nationals ........................... 5 per cent

Total Coalition ........................40 per cent

Labor Party ...............................38 per cent

The Greens ..............................12 per cent

Palmer United Party ................. 3 per cent

Another party or independent candidate ........... 7 per cent

2) Two party preferred.

Coalition .........................48

Labor ..............................52

3) Who do you think would make the better Premier?

Denis Napthine ....... 41

Daniel Andrews ...... 33

Uncommitted .......... 26

4) Which leaders, Denis Napthine or Daniel Andrews would be the best choice for protecting Victorian jobs?

Denis Napthine...........39

Daniel Andrews...........38

Uncommitted................23

5) Which leaders, Denis Napthine or Daniel Andrews would be the best choice for keeping the CFMEU in check?

Denis Napthine...........47

Daniel Andrews...........23

Uncommitted...............30

6) Do you think that Victoria is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right direction .........51

Wrong direction .......37

Uncommitted ...........12

7) Which one of these projects do you think the state government should give the

highest priority?

Removing Victoria’s worst 50 level crossings ........ 62

Building the East West Link .................................. 28

Uncommitted ......................................................... 10

8) Does the performance of the Abbott government make you more or less likely to vote for

Denis Napthine in the forthcoming state election?

More likely to vote for Napthine ... 15

Less likely to vote for Napthine ... 33

Not influence vote ........................ 47

Uncommitted ................................ 5

(*Survey conducted by Galaxy Research on the evenings of August 14-15, 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 843 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.)