Epstein vs. Stevens? It's more like Trump vs. Obama

Todd Spangler | Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON – In some ways, the race for a key open seat to Congress in Detroit's suburbs is the marquee matchup we'd love to see:

Donald Trump vs. Barack Obama.

On Wednesday morning, Republican businesswoman Lena Epstein and Democratic consultant Haley Stevens won their respective primaries in Michigan's 11th District, two young women — Epstein is 37 and Stevens is 35 — entering the field as candidates for the first time (and, in both cases, beating crowded fields that included current and/or past officeholders, nominees and well-funded rivals).

But as much as the nominations of Epstein and Stevens in the district — which includes parts of southeastern Oakland County and western Wayne County — continues a national narrative of women over-performing in congressional primaries this year, it also sets up a race between two people with unmistakable connections to the nation's two most recent chief executives.

Epstein was all but unknown in political circles before 2016, when she helped to engineer Trump's successful Michigan campaign, the first won by a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1988; Stevens, meanwhile, has touted her service as chief of staff to Obama's auto task force, which in 2009 arranged financing — and structured bankruptcies — that were widely credited with saving General Motors and what is now Fiat Chrysler.

"Lena definitely ran as the Trump candidate. Others (in the Republican field) attempted to but didn't have the natural connection," said Republican consultant John Truscott. "Haley, a little less so (in drawing a direct connection with Obama) but clearly, the connection will be drawn."

Truscott said that while the 11th District has traditionally been Republican, it only marginally backed Trump in 2016 and races across the nation appear to suggest that even more staunchly Republican districts may be in play.

Bill Ballenger, Michigan political analyst and founder of the Ballenger Report, said it's also important to note that turnout across the state — including in Oakland and Wayne counties — was way up and that it represents an enthusiasm by Democratic voters that could help Stevens in November.

"That's going to be fascinating. Lena can't run away from Trump and I don't think she'll try to," said Ballenger, referring to Epstein's vocal support for the Trump administration and its agenda. "The question will be how Haley Stevens runs her campaign. Will it be a negative, anti-Trump kind of message? Or will she stay on the positive side and try to build up her credentials?"

Both seemed eager to recast the race having fought through a tough primary season: Epstein, who co-owns a family oil and industrial lubricants business, put out a statement saying. "We will unite our party for the tough fight ahead and reach out to Democrats and independents to let them know they have a home on our campaign."

Stevens — who received a late endorsement from former Democratic nominee and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (neither Trump nor Obama made endorsements in the primary race) — put out a statement saying she was eager to talk about plans for advanced manufacturing and jobs in the district and how "to fix the mess that Washington politicians have created."

“Years of partisan bickering and dysfunction in Washington have not served the best interests of the hardworking families who power our economy," she said.

More on freep.com:

Voter turnout shatters recent records for Michigan primary elections

With 100 percent of the vote tallied, Epstein won a five-person Republican field, with 26,119 votes, or 31 percent. She was followed by former state Rep. A. Rocky Raczkowski, with 21,618 votes, or 25 percent; state Sen. Mike Kowall, with 15,761 or 19 percent; state Rep. Klint Kesto, with 11,879 or 14 percent, and former U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, with 9,584 or 11 percent.

On the Democratic side, Stevens had 23,997 votes, or 27 percent. She was followed by state Rep. Tim Greimel, with 19,317 votes, or 22 percent; entrepreneur Suneel Gupta, with 18,873 or 21 percent; Fayrouz Saad, former head of immigrant affairs in Detroit, with 17,294 or 20 percent, and radio host Nancy Skinner, with 9,234 or 10 percent.

It was a stunning result in terms of sheer numbers: With 177,618 total votes cast across the two primaries, it was the largest voter turnout for a congressional primary in Michigan for at least 20 years (and maybe ever) and 35 percent larger than the previous record-holder, which was the 131,268 votes recorded in the 1st District primary two years ago. (Meanwhile, the turnout in the 8th District, where U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop, R-Rochester, will face Democrat Elissa Slotkin, was almost as big with 163,453 people casting votes.)

The 11th District is widely seen as a toss-up by political handicappers, even though it has traditionally been friendly to Republicans (and had been gerrymandered by Republican legislators in Lansing, in 2011, to protect then-U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter of Livonia), in part because of the abrupt decision by U.S. Rep. Dave Trott, R-Birmingham, to step down after just two 2-year terms.

But it almost certainly will draw a ton of outside resources and interest, with Democrats needing to add 25 seats to the 193 they have now to regain majority control of the U.S. House and Republicans just as eager to block them in districts such as this one. The district is home to the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel.

Epstein, for one, can certainly self-fund a campaign: Of the $1.6 million she had raised as of July 18, just under $1 million was in the form of a loan to herself.

While Stevens doesn't have access to as much cash personally, she still raised more than $1 million (with no loans to herself) and can expect much more funding to flow in now that she's the nominee. (It's worth noting, too, that one of her rivals — Suneel Gupta, who is the brother of CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta — raised $1.4 million, the most of any Democrat in the primary.)

As for the outside parties, groups in Washington were already set to make their presence felt.

“Congratulations to Lena Epstein for winning the Republican primary in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District," said Maddie Anderson, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "Lena is a businesswoman and a Harvard graduate, and we are excited about her candidacy. The NRCC will do what it takes to ensure this seat stays in Republican control.”

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.