analysis

Updated: Jul 23, 2019 15:47 IST

The Congress faces a crisis in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (UP). In the last three decades, it has, in elections, tied up with the Bahujan Samaj Party (losing its original Dalit voters to them), with the Samajwadi Party (to face a great drubbing in the 2017 assembly polls), and fought alone. None of it has worked.

There was a glimmer of hope in 2009, when Rahul Gandhi, on the back of welfare schemes and hard work, led the Congress to success. In 2016, Gandhi’s Kisan Yatra across UP energised the cadre but there was little follow-up thereafter. In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the party won merely one seat, and its vote share shrunk to 6%.

In the last 20 months, having travelled to numerous districts in the state, especially central and east UP, I witnessed the reality of the moribund Congress organisation and its infighting. But despite being out of power for over 30 years, the fact that the party structure, organisation, people and supporters exist gives reason for hope.

The BJP is sitting pretty with a majority government in both Delhi and Lucknow. It has successfully combined muscular Hindu nationalism with micro caste management.

But an examination of other players in the theatre reveals that the ground is ripe for a new force. The SP managed to hold on to five seats in the Lok Sabha with an alliance with the BSP. But Akhilesh Yadav won Azamgarh only because the Congress chose not to put up an influential candidate, Ramakant Yadav (he contested and lost his deposit from Bhadohi instead). The party has seen a steady dip in its vote share in the state.

The BSP has had a minor revival, primarily due to its alliance with the SP, winning 10 seats. The alliance broke; Mayawati made her brother the number 2 of her party, and officially launched her nephew in politics. It remains to be seen whether her dwindling vote bank (the BSP has been slowly losing vote share since 2012) of Jatavs will get enamoured by Mayawati’s dynasty.

This churn provides an opportunity to revive the Congress under Priyanka Gandhi’s capable leadership. In marketing, they teach that to launch or relaunch a new product in the market, you have to find a central idea or a figure. For the Congress in UP, that central idea is Priyanka Gandhi.

She has had a range of meetings to understand the state, and is focused on the battle of 2022. She has charisma. Her brand is recognised across the state. She connects with women voters, and is natural with the media.

It is in this backdrop that Gandhi’s actions ---- visit to Mirzapur and Sonbhadra ---- over the weekend brought the Yogi Adityanath government to its feet.

She took a stand that she would visit and meet the families of the victims of the horrible Sonbhadra massacre. But she was detained in Narayanpur on the Varanasi-Mirzapur border. The authorities had no valid reason or a written explanation. Her political instincts were razor sharp as she was determined to stay held up at the Chunar Fort Guest House as a prisoner till her objective of meeting the families was met. She listened to Congress workers singing ‘Raghupati Raghav Raja Ram’ and ‘Vaishnav Jante’ while sitting with them for long hours. The local government cut electricity to deter her. Her tenacity ensured that after 36 hours, the government capitulated. It was a victory for the Congress, and it told everyone that Priyanka Gandhi has arrived and is here to stay till 2022.

To build on this, Gandhi should now choose to make Lucknow, Varanasi or Allahabad her base. Even a simple programme --- like having ‘baati chokha’ in every block headquarters across UP ---- will establish a direct connect with voters. She should establish a rapport with young women through outreach programmes in high-schools, degree and technical colleges.

As she travels, Gandhi will find a lot of people who would like to help the Congress re-emerge. To achieve this, what is needed is an iron will, a result-based outreach to the aspirational youth, and a clean break from those who have presided over the Congress decline in the state.

Gandhi will also have to look at the Congress’ own micro caste management. It already has a hands-on leader in the assembly in Ajay Laloo (a second-term MLA who is an OBC). It will need to reach out and send a strong message to the Brahmins (it has young leaders like Laliteshpati Tripathi, Jitin Prasada and Aradhana Mishra); Dalits who maybe looking for a new political home with Mayawati’s decline; send positive feelers to other OBCs; and tap into the hurt the Banias are feeling due to demonetisation, shoddy GST, and the current economic slowdown.

For this to even begin, a “ghar-vapasi” (home coming) will be needed for the Nehru-Gandhi family. And what could be better than Anand Bhawan or Swaraj Bhawan in Prayagraj. It is time for Priyanka Gandhi to come back to her roots.

Gaurav Kapoor is secretary of the Congress research department for Uttar Pradesh, based in Varanasi

The views expressed are personal