Olivia Chow is in trouble. The candidate for mayor is not connecting with voters. Her campaign appears disjointed and out of ideas that inspire. The entire enterprise is out of steam, crumbling just when it must soar.

That’s the unvarnished and painful truth for those who view Chow as the Ford Buster, someone with great promise; the first non-white mayor in Toronto’s history (W. P. Hubbard’s fill-in stint notwithstanding); the first woman mayor since amalgamation; a return to urban sanity after a failed experiment with the brutish bumpkins from the bad side of Etobicoke.

A reasonable calculation concludes it will take a miracle to salvage an unimaginative, lacklustre seven-month campaign seven weeks from voting day.

As Toronto turns its attention to the contest for mayor, post-Labour Day as anticipated, desperation has replaced smug confidence among the supporters of the candidate who led the polls for some six months.

More than one poll now positions Chow in third place among decided voters (and all eligible voters), trailing John Tory and incumbent bad boy Rob Ford.

If the pollsters are right when they report that about two in three citizens want Ford excised from Toronto’s civic life and consciousness (they say they would not vote Ford under any circumstances), then a good number have begun looking at someone other than Chow for rescue.

That may explain two numbers in the recent Nanos poll. Tory is at 42 per cent among decided voters. And 17 per cent of eligible voters are undecided. Add those voter intents to the pressing desire to stop Ford and the trend away from Chow is difficult to reverse.

If Chow has anything left, now is the time to unleash it. Likely, it is already too late. In desperation football language that Ford likes to use, it’s Hail Mary time.

At the height of Thursday’s spirited and entertaining mayoral debate at the Toronto Hilton — John Tory slicing and dicing Rob Ford to the delight of the Toronto Region Board of Trade members — Chow appeared outclassed, overmatched, sidelined. David Soknacki, a brave candidate with residual spunk, at least tried to lob haymakers, even if his jabs fell harmlessly. Chow was just . . . there.

If there is a reset or a reboot button, hit it now, please!

Come next week, Soknacki and others on the long list of candidates will have to decide if they will take their names off the ballot. Deadline is Sept. 12. The thinking is Soknacki will drop out. Chow will stay in the race — but another week like the past four weeks and her candidacy will be maintained out of respect, just a courtesy, to the hardcore supporters who are in the “Chow or nobody” category.

Seven weeks is an eternity in politics, you say, and that is correct on several levels. For instance, there is a lot of time for front-runner Tory to unveil platform planks that so upset the populace that they turn against him. Or he might go into a shell and appear as uninspiring and boring — leaving the door open for a resurgence.

But that is unlikely.

In fact, Tory has found his stride. To see him at the board of trade debate was to witness a transformed candidate — comfortable, funny, aggressive, toying with Ford like a skilled boxer setting up a punch-drunk brawler before the late-round knockout.

To the majority who say they want Ford gone, Tory has presented himself as the viable alternative. Chow must now summon all the clichés to keep hope alive: “It ain’t over till it’s over.” The “only poll that matters is on Oct. 27.”

Is there time for one more twist and turn? Conventional wisdom says, not after Sept. 30. By then, minds are made up. Televised debates on Oct. 16 and 22 provide last-minute hope. But it’s not comforting to depend on an opponent’s catastrophic failure. Better to create one’s own buzz and breaks.

During this last leg, as the field narrows even further, Tory can expect an avalanche of attacks and heightened scrutiny. Is he an elitist or the man who’s spent his life bringing people together? Can he build city council into an engine that will tackle the transportation challenge of a generation? Would he engage all sectors — listen to those who have been muted, learn from those who would teach, empower those waiting to unleash their skills and talent?

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Chow descent has been Tory’s ascent. We always knew it could only be one or the other. The sense is a Ford-fatigued Toronto will choose relief sooner rather than later.

Royson James usually appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Email: rjames@thestar.ca

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