Don’t let the festive lull fool you: behind-the-scenes, no-deal Brexit contingency planning is accelerating around the EU. With not even 100 days before Britain leaves, and Downing Street ramping up its no-deal planning, the European commission last week unveiled bare-bones plans to keep flights in the air and money flowing should the UK crash out, warning that it would take all necessary steps to limit disruption for its members. A temporary nine-month regime, which the bloc can terminate unilaterally, would allow UK airlines to fly to the continent and back but not between EU cities. It would allow EU banks to clear transactions in the City, and allow British trucks to deliver goods into the EU.

The EU’s executive arm also urged member states to be “generous” in protecting basic rights for the more than one million Britons on the continent by granting temporary residence permits to give them some security as they try to resolve their long-term status.

No-deal preparations are most advanced in member states that would be most severely affected, including Ireland, France, the Netherlands and Belgium. Ireland last week published its contingency plans, conceding that they were at best “a damage limitation exercise”.

Dublin’s concerns range from the economic impact of a slump in exports and the value of sterling to road haulage delays, skills shortages, smuggling and medicine supplies.

France, too, which has passed legislation allowing it to pass emergency Brexit laws by decree, said its no-deal planning was well advanced. Europe minister Nathalie Loiseau said Paris was not readying the army, but preparations had been under way for “quite a while now for a hard Brexit – which is not what we want”.

Key areas for pre-emptive action include:

Ports and borders



Countries with ports handling large volumes of UK trade – including Rotterdam, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Calais and Hamburg – have been preparing for the risk of a no deal since soon after the referendum.

France is hiring an extra 700 customs officers, expanding border control infrastructure such as checkpoints, roads and lorry parks, and building new warehousing in Calais, Cherbourg and at the entrance to the Channel tunnel.

The Netherlands is taking on more than 900 extra customs officials and 145 vets – for checks on food, plant and animal products – at Rotterdam.

Belgium is adding 140 customs officers, and Ireland is adding 1,000 extra staff for customs controls, sanitary and phytosanitary checks and export certification. The Irish government is also buying land near Dublin port for new border inspection bays, and parking for 270 trucks as they await checks, as well as offices for 144 staff. Similar preparations are underway at Rosslare port and Dublin airport.

Shipping routes are also being expanded, and entirely new ones created, which would allow goods to be shipped smoothly between Ireland and Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain without ever having to enter the UK.

Businesses

EU companies using UK goods could face serious supply-chain problems if – as the EU has said would be the case – the bloc no longer recognised British standards after a no-deal exit. In such a case, companies would also face cost increases from transport delays.

The Institute for Government thinktank lists many EU states that have already launched awareness campaigns for small- and medium-sized businesses, many of which have done little to prepare.

Dublin’s Getting Ireland Brexit Ready website provides sector-by-sector advice, supplemented by practical roadshows, while the Dutch Brexit Impact Scan helps companies analyse and address their no-deal risks, with questions tailored to their business sector and relationship with the UK.

Belgium has a similar impact assessment scheme, as do Denmark and France. France is also offering regional meetings to businesses addressing future customs arrangements. Poland has published a booklet offering information to businesses.

The Irish and Dutch governments are so concerned about the possible impact on their companies that they are offering cash grants and vouchers worth between €2,500 and €1.5m to companies with a particularl exposure to the UK, to pay for specialist advice or help them look for new markets.

Citizens’ rights

It is unclear how far the full rights of British citizens living in the EU – such as access to healthcare, social benefits, pensions and family reunion – would be protected in the event of no deal.

Partly because the EU27’s approach would be based on reciprocity – and therefore dependent on the UK’s treatment of EU nationals in Britain – no-deal preparations are less well advanced in citizens’ rights than in other areas.

“It would seem very strange for us to make an exception and give the British resident in the EU a more favourable situation than EU citizens resident in the UK,” Loiseau said last week.

France is among several countries promising some degree of unilateral action to preserve UK citizens’ rights, including passing legislation to allow British nationals working in the French public sector to keep their jobs.

Germany has drafted legislation that should allow UK nationals to escape a ban on non-EU citizens holding dual nationality, as long as they apply before the end of the transition period.

Many EU27 consulates in the UK have organised internet seminars and created web portals for their citizens living in Britain on the legal rights of both them and their partners.