Ned Davis research writes ….note the red arrow at the top right. Readings above 70 have found us in recession 92.11% of the time (1970 to present). Several months ago, the model score stood at 61.3. It has just moved to 80.04. Expect a global recession. It either has begun or will begin shortly. Though no guarantee, as 7.89% of the time since 1970 when the global economic indicators that make up this model were above 70, a recession did not occur.

Conclusion

China,Europe and Emerging markets economic growth is already topping and if US continues to raise rates into the year end, we might see even US growth taking a hit by first quarter of next year.

This is when I think the chances of global economy enters into recession