A lot has been happening, so consider the following a handy summary.

Liberal democrats

On the weekend, the NSW Liberal Party voted to give all its members a vote in state and federal preselections. This was a win for Tony Abbott, who has been pushing hard for this change, and a win for conservatives, who are likely to win more preselections now.

Was it a loss for Malcolm Turnbull? Kind of, and not really. The “kind of” is because Turnbull is much more of a moderate than a conservative. But Turnbull did the democratic thing – in backing democratic reforms – and also joined a long tradition of prime ministers in doing the smart thing by backing a party reform that was almost certainly going to happen anyway. If Turnbull hadn’t got on board, it would have been painted as a political loss for him. But he succeeded in making sure it wasn’t.

Interestingly, given all the demands for that Turnbull and Abbott chat, Peter Hartcher reported on the weekend that they’d already talked last week about the party conference and had expressed agreement on the plebiscites.

But it doesn’t end there

Happy ending? Happy, perhaps; ending, not so much. The reform still has to go to the Liberal state council. If the council turns it down, or amends it in significant ways, that will be yet another excuse for Abbott to start yelling again.

An alternative argument is that it doesn’t really matter what the state council does, because Abbott is busy proving the adage that you don’t negotiate with terrorists. Having got his way on the weekend, he was out today merrily declaring that the Clean Energy Target is a disaster-in-waiting [$]. If Abbott isn’t given the war he wants, he’ll find another somewhere.

Post offers

But wait – there’s more! Democracy, that is. Peter Dutton was out on the weekend backing the idea of a postal plebiscite to resolve the marriage equality issue. The beauty of this idea, for Dutton and his colleagues, is that it doesn’t require legislation, unlike an actual plebiscite, which won’t pass the parliament.

Liberal MP Warren Entsch has already been out to argue that the problem with this plebiscite is the same as with any other plebiscite: there are Coalition MPs saying they won’t be bound by it, so what’s the bloody point. There might also be legal issues, says constitutional lawyer George Williams.

The really interesting thing here, I think, is that Dutton said that he believes there’s momentum [$] for the issue being dealt with, and that he’s “working on the assumption” that it will be before the next election.

To me, this suggests that Turnbull and his confidantes, Dutton and Mathias Cormann, are determined to get this done. A postal plebiscite may be a genuine offer, but is just as likely to be a bit of a stalking horse to force the issue.

Abbott makes no sense, as per

Abbott was keen to have his say, of course, making the point that “Here you have Bill Shorten yesterday demanding a referendum on four-year terms, but he is unwilling to let the people have their say on any change to the Marriage Act. Now if it’s right and proper to have a people’s vote on four-year terms, let’s have a people’s vote on whether we should change the Marriage Act.”

Well, no, because four-year terms would mean changing the Constitution, which legally requires a referendum, and the Marriage Act is a piece of legislation that requires no referendum. This bloke was prime minister, and wants to be again.

Wait – did you just mention more democracy?

That’s right! This weekend, Shorten also wanted to talk about voting, proposing that the country move to fixed four-year terms to give governments the time and certainty to get things done.

There was a brief flurry afterwards as reports emerged that Turnbull had called Shorten afterwards to offer bipartisan support for the proposal. No! said the PM’s office [$], there’s a long way to go before we get there, and leaking that conversation was a destructive move, which will just make reform more difficult. And, to be fair, they’re probably right.

Shorten whistled

Meanwhile, Shorten strolled along, whistling as he worked. Or so it seems at the moment. He’s still talking about changes to taxes, though he hasn’t said what they’ll be. Having raised inequality last week, he pushed Scott Morrison into perhaps the most idiotic own-goal of recent times, when the treasurer sought to argue that Shorten was wrong, and that in fact inequality is getting better. This is contested territory, and it depends on what timeframe you use, but did the treasurer really think this was the battle he should try to win? Good treasurers need to see the trees, but they can’t afford to forget there’s a forest.

Shorten is due to speak to the NSW Labor Party conference next weekend, and there is speculation he will make a tax announcement there. Next Saturday he will address the Australian Republic Movement gala dinner, another golden opportunity to push the prime minister’s buttons.

Polls

Another Newspoll [$] this morning had Labor ahead of the government by 53-47 for the fifth consecutive poll. It’s the 16th poll in a row that Labor’s been ahead. It’s really something that, since April, nothing has really shifted the polls: not the budget, not national security, not immigration and, in a rare bright side for the government, not Abbott either.

Perhaps pollsters could put the usual questions on hold for a little while and help me settle some things I’ve been wondering about: How would you all feel about Barnaby Joyce, PM, at least in comparison to the current Liberal options? When was the last time having a cup of tea with your sworn enemy fixed everything? And how many Australians really think the next election is at least a year away?

In other news

FILM Sweeping us up Jennifer Peedom’s ‘Mountain’ is a meditation on the allure of the climb Sebastian Smee “Mountain is a collaboration between Jennifer Peedom, the Australian Chamber Orchestra and Robert Macfarlane. It is an attempt not so much to explain that order of experience as to evoke it, prod it, turn it over in the mind. It does so with a series of extraordinary images set to music, and an intermittent voice-over written by Macfarlane and narrated by Willem Dafoe.” READ ON POLITICS On the bright side It’s nice that Nick Greiner thinks a chat might end the Abbott–Turnbull war Mungo MacCallum “The new Liberal Party federal president, Nick Greiner, is aiming for the Nobel Peace Prize, and he’s doing it the hard way. Eschewing simple conflicts such as solving the Syrian dilemma, brokering a deal between Israel and the Palestinians and persuading North Korea’s Kim Jong-il to loosen up a bit, Greiner has gone straight for the big one: reconciling Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott.” READ ON