The International 4 predictions: Invites and Qualifiers



What are the odds of Bruno wearing purple? Original photo from The International 3's stream



The International 2 champion Invictus Gaming posted a picture last 23 April 2013 showing all five members of the team, each holding an invitation to The International 3. Within the next eight days, twelve other groups were invited to occupy the slots allotted for the teams who, through their achievements and accomplishments within the past couple of months, were deemed worthy to compete in the grandest stage of them all. The final formal invitation (another direct invite came around three weeks later for a replacement team) came on 30 April, wherein LGD.international and MUFC were invited.

Aside from those teams, 16 others were pegged into two different regional qualifiers - the East and the West. Four team tickets to Seattle and three The International slots were competed upon by those teams (the winner of each qualifier received invites, and the runner-ups competed head-to-head in the wildcard tournament right before the preliminaries).



Invictus Gaming showing their invite to the world

Since the third The International was held 2-11 August, it means that the invites started rolling out around three-and-a-half months before the event. With The International 4 set this coming 8-21 July, it leaves just a little bit over three months until the actual competition. So, which teams will be invited? Our editor Ren gives off his predictions based on the teams' achievements and performance post-The International 3, taking into consideration various factors which may affect their chances on being chosen.

This article expresses solely the author's opinion, and thus not reflect GosuGamers' opinion as a whole.

The invites

One consistent pattern on The International invites is that it has been decreasing every year. From 16 invited teams on the first ever The International, the number was decreased to 14 on the second and was further slashed down into 13 on the third. The fourth one, with eleven teams to be invited, will have the least number of pre-qualified to date. It isn't necessarily a bad thing, of course, as the trend on the number of the invited teams is inversely proportional to the teams advancing through the qualifiers (more on this later on).

Another similarity arises in the regional breakdown of the teams. Within the first three years, the tally between the invitees are almost identical - eight apiece in 2011, seven each in 2012 (considering Absolute Legends as a western team), and an unavoidable (because of the odd number) 6-7 count in 2013.

One of the two critical factors weighed when determining the invitees are the teams' performance. This should come as no surprise, as the best tournament deserves the best teams to participate on it. Victories, achievements and even defeats over the past months are all taken into consideration. Of course, noticeable are the top finishers on the significant tournaments (how big a tournament is is usually determined by its prizepool), especially as these kinds of competition present the high level of oppositions.

While the first factor wasn't really a shock, the second one is rather intriguing. During the invite phase last year, Valve has emphasized roster stability in a way that it seemed that they are inviting the players, and not the team. The reason why I placed stability on the same scale as the team's achievements went backseat last year following a rather dramatic roster change. LGD, a staple name in Chinese dota, saw its invitation being revoked after they altered their roster. SEA-mix Neolution.international also saw its qualifier invitation suffer the same fate because of a similar reason. To some extent, stability was also blamed for the west-qualifier snub that Kaipi received, despite their then recent success.

Given that, I have divided my pick of the invited teams into four different subgroups.

Past champions

To be the best, you have to beat the best, right? These teams have shined the brightest on Dota's grandest stage on least at one point within the tournament's first three years. Between the 15 players of these three teams, 12 of them can actually call themselves 'The International champion'. However, these teams are not invited because of that lone past accomplishment, but because they have stood the test of time and still have been winning tournaments since the previous championships last August.





Alliance after winning The International 2013. Photo from GosuGamers



Natus Vincere

While the Ukranian squad has often been seen as the fan-favorite team with the charismatic players, no one can deny that they have been a team to beat ever since the beginning of Dota 2. After winning the first the International, they finished a respectable second place on the previous two. Its not just about past achievements though, as the team continued to shine as they have won other tournaments post TI3 including the eight season of Starladder.

Invictus Gaming

Despite a number of line-up changes since winning The International back in 2012, iG has continued to be a top-tier Chinese team. Aside from being the second highest finisher among Chinese teams last TI3, the team also secured a title on the Redbull ECL and a silver on G-League 2013. Now sporting a line-up nearly identical with their winning team two years ago, iG is looking to challenge the top spot in China and in the world.

Alliance

Alliance followed The International with a number of good performances, including a championship on the first season of the Dota 2 Champions League. They have been on a slump lately though, something which prompted them to take a break and change drafter roles. Despite that, it remains that Alliance is still the defending champion of the tournament.

Major tournament winners

The next set of teams have recently won a major tournament, wherein they have faced some of their region's best teams (for a couple, they even get to compete against others outside their region). Along with these victories came in very big (relative, depending on the region) cash winnings as well. While one singular third-party tournament may not be conclusive to grant an invite, I feel like they have accomplished enough while being able to consistently compete on a high level to receive these slots.





Cloud 9, then known as Speed Gaming, after winning MLG. Photo from GosuGamers



DK

After a disappointing crash out of The International 3, DK had a roster makeover which included adding Southeast Asian superstars Yee 'Mushi' Fung Chai and Daryl 'iceiceice' Koh. Since then, they have been burning enemies on competitions and are finishing on the top spots on almost every tournament they join. Among their biggest wins are the title in WPC-ACE 2013 and G-League 2014, both of which are among the largest and most prestigious Chinese Dota 2 leagues.

Vici Gaming

Despite a seemingly capable roster, VG crashed out last year after losing to both LGD and Rattlesnake in the TI3 Eastern qualifiers. They were one of the few teams who benefited greatly from the shuffle though, as they acquired Xie 'Super' Juanhao, Bai 'rOtk' Fan and Liu 'Sylar' Jiajun across two separate transactions. After a few months of adjustment, the team finally got it together and won the second season of Sina Cup. Their big break came in after they were tasked as replacement for team DK in the EMS One Fall tournament, wherein they eventually won after besting teams like Fnatic, Alliance and Natus Vincere.

Cloud 9

Cloud 9, formerly known as Speed Gaming and Kaipi, broke into world-wide prominence after winning MLG Columbus. Despite already being composed by individual stars at that time, they were nothing more but a team with no significant achievement. Saddled by issues with their then-manager, the team placed their woes behind them and defeated the tournament-favorite and then-streaking team DK to take home the title. The team rebranded not more than two weeks ago as Cloud9 picked them up.

Titan

Titan is composed of four of the five members of the Orange team that won third place on TI3. It is hard to deny that they are by far the most decorated and experienced Southeast Asian Dota 2 team at the moment. They convincingly won the AsianCyberGames last year, a feat which netted them $15,000 (a very big bounty by SEA standards). Aside from that, the Malaysian team has the unique opportunity of experiencing the best of both worlds as they are invited on the top Chinese and Southeast Asian tournaments alike.

On a hot streak

Not all teams have the prestige of owning a major tournament, but its also hard to deny that those same teams are deserving of a slot. The teams I placed on this section have been on a tear lately, and I feel that considering their recent performance, they should be a merited an invitation. It also happens to be that these teams are prime contenders on very big Dota 2-represented nations.





EG after winning the Monster Energy invitational Photo from Evil Geniuses



Team Empire

Empire, seemingly with a great resolution, has been one of the best teams this year, losing only 12 times within their last 67 games. That hot streak has been emphasized with the 30-game streak that they had wherein they didn't suffer even a single defeat. That is particularly impressive because they faced a lot of strong opposition during that stretch. With Russia getting at least an invite during the past years, Empire is the prime candidate this year because of their recent stellar performance. The team is kind of lacking actual achievements, but they have just won Techlabs April and will also compete in the upcoming LAN finals of Starladder as Europe's top seed.

Evil Geniuses

Despite being one of the most recognizable e-Sports brand, the Evil Geniuses Dota 2 team has been known in a bad way - for losing matches they should have won, and for not winning a title. After a number of roster changes, they have finally found something that will work. It started as a trial team under the name of sadboys, on which they found immediate success and rolled on on an undefeated streak. They are now starting to look like a team to fear and they have also established themselves as one of America's finest team after they broke the 'curse' and won a small (in terms of participating teams) but rather prestigious LAN tournament, the Monster Energy Invitational.

Rounding off

These teams will be like the LGD.int and the MUFC of last year, in reference only to how those teams were the last to be invited. It can be argued that they may not really be on par with the teams mentioned above, but these teams have shown great potential and are actually still probably the best choice considering the circumstances.





Fnatic. Photo from ESL



Fnatic

Placing Fnatic as one of the last teams to be invited is kind of brutal. After all, they are one of the most accomplished western teams since the last The International in terms of consistently doing well. While I think that they absolutely deserve an invitation (this might be biased, as I really enjoy watching them play), I cannot help but feel that they are missing out something, and that is preventing them to win a big tournament. They have recently won the well-represented XMG Captain's draft invitational though, and they are looking really good heading into the busy Dota 2 months. This team is also no newcomer around big stages as evident from their reign in their HoN era, and they still are one of the better teams in LAN.

Scythe.SG

Before you crucify me for picking Scythe over other teams, hear me out. I feel that with the current distribution of the teams up to this point, it is highly unlikely that this last invite will be given to a western team. The biggest arguments for an Eastern team can be made by putting up either LGD or NewBee, but I will discuss that later. You can say that the SEA scene is behind, but I can argue that that has been holding since the past years. A lot would think that them beng invited, but I just think that is feasible. There has always been at least three SEA teams in The International on the past three years, thus another three this year is not farfetched. With Zenith out of the picture, it is not hard to imagine this team to carry on the Singaporean flag. The team isn't completely random choice as well, as despite being relatively new, they have still recently won the eClub-organized AsianCyberGames best-of-the-best SEA invitational.

With that, the breakdown of the invited teams is five for the east and six for the west.

Honorable mentions

These teams may have been worthy of an invite, but I find these teams unlikely to be given a direct ticket. But while I think these teams are bound to shine in the qualifiers, it will not be very surprising for me if they are otherwise invited.





old RoX.KiS. Photo from D2L's stream



NewBee, LGD

As mentioned above, I favored Scythe over Chinese teams NewBee and LGD. Given that all three teams have been modifying their rosters, I think that the recent accomplishments will play a big part. Both of these teams haven't practically proven anything yet (it might be an unfair comparison because they get to compete against the top Chinese teams while Scythe is competing against SEA teams, but the fact persists). Also, with the format as it is now, an invite on either of them would mean that there will be at least five (as much as six) Chinese teams joining The International 2014. While I honestly feel that they are more deserving that Scythe, I am also inclined to think that it will be highly unlikely that they will be invited directly.

RoX.KiS

This Russian team has been hot lately, suffering only six losses within their last 20 matches. Their strong play has been evident on their second place finish on the group stage of Starladder. If ever the invitation gets stretched up, this team can make a strong case for themselves on the LAN playoffs of that tournament - a competition that will include six teams I touted above as a The International invitee.

The qualifiers

Its often overlooked how soon the qualifiers is (It cannot be too late as the winning teams may still have to prepare their travel documents, particularly the Visa, among other things). With the qualifiers scheduled 13 (west) and 20 (east) May of last year for the TI3's qualifiers, the participating teams were only announced 3 May. With this year's qualifiers scheduled on a near similar time span, 12-25 May, teams not expecting themselves to be invited are at least already jockeying themselves in position for the qualifiers.

As mentioned earlier, the decreasing amount of invited teams means that the number of teams advancing from the qualifiers is getting higher. From null on the first, there were two who qualified on the second (not including the replacement team for MUFC, as that was a different issue) and three who qualified on the third. This year, five teams (almost a third of all the participating teams) will be advancing from the qualifiers. This is actually a good thing, as the organizers can focus on inviting the worthy ones, and have the others blame no one but themselves if they are not able to get into The International.

Contrary to the first two Internationals with qualifiers, this year's will have four separate qualifiers instead of two. Those regional qualifiers are assumed to be for the American, Europe, Chinese and Southeast Asian region. The winning team will get a direct invite to The International 2014, while the runner-ups will fly to Seattle to compete for the last slot. No number about the count of teams competing is released yet, but there were eight teams for each qualifier in the last two years. For this though, I will only be listing four teams per region, plus the likely winner and runner-up.

America

Team Liquid, Revenge eSports, eHug, CNB





Team Liquid fan being interviewed by Kaci. Photo from The International 3's stream



From the first American team to place 'in the money' at The International, team Liquid is now returning as a favorite - but this time for the qualifiers. Sporting only two of the five members of the roster they had at TI3, Liquid has already bid farewell to their members sporting a rather iconic mustache and hair. The American scene is in a rather bad situation at the moment, and that opens up the opportunity for teams like Peruvian team Revenge and even the Brazilian team CNB.

Another team to watch out for is Sneaky Nyx Assassins, the team of former Team Liquid members Brian 'FLUFFNSTUFF' Lee and Michael 'ixmike88' Ghannam, if they do get invited.



Europe / CIS

RoX.KiS, Team Dog, Sigma, Virtus.Pro





Sigma International. Photo from ESL



The European scene has been very active, much to the delight of the fans. However, the real winners are the teams, because they have the avenue to continuously compete on a high-level and improve. Earlier I mentioned the streking RoX.KiS, and I find them to be among the favorites on this volatile region. Veteran-laden team Team Dog also has a serious chance, as well as Sigma International.

Outside of those mentioned above, also worth a look among others are teams like Power Rangers, Next.KZ, Relax and MeetYourMakers.



China

LGD, NewBee, Dream Time, Tongfu.Wanzhou





LGD.cn with now NewBee's captain, xiao8. Photo from D2L's stream



The Chinese qualifier will be an uphill battle for most of the participating teams, as two Chinese juggernauts will be competing in it. Despite still being at a level below the three Chinese teams I mentioned above, these two have already put themselves on a pedestal higher than the rest. NewBee has yet to solve the puzzle presented by DK, VG and iG, but I feel that they are on a better form, at least at the moment, compared with LGD. Because of that, I think that NewBee will win the qualifier while LGD will end as the runner-up.

CIS, the team of Dominik 'Black^' Reitmeier, is a notable team despite the team's recent slump.

Southeast Asia / Korea

Arrow Gaming, Mineski, Rex Regum Qeon, Orange





Arrow Gaming



The SEA qualifier is a tricky one, as many teams are really inconsistent and unpredictable. The relatively inactive and bad IT infrastructured-region has really hurt these teams. However, no one really expected Orange to do so well last year (or at least not third-place well), and with that hope I look at the SEA teams. At the moment, Arrow Gaming has really put themselves apart from the rest of the pack, putting up a record which may contest even Scythe. The race for second place will be highly contested, with another Malaysian team in Orange eSports, Indonesian team Rex Regum Qeon and Filipino team Mineski being my top picks for that spot.

There are also other teams which stand a chance, including Korean team MVP.Phoenix, as well as the Korea-based American team Zephyr, if ever they are invited.



With the tournament set more than three months and the qualifiers more than a week from now, a lot can still happen. The beauty of Dota is that it doesn't takes months to make a difference, as sometimes all it takes is a single winning or botched engagement, and then all things are different. With all said and done, all these are just speculations.

What about you, what are your predictions for the invites and the qualifiers? Feel free to let us know via the comments section below.



Rotator image source: Mario Universe







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