Donald Trump leads his next closest competitor, Sen. Ted Cruz, by 21 points. | AP Photo Trump's bubble refuses to burst The real estate mogul closes out the year with a daunting lead in the GOP race.

Donald Trump is closing out the year with a dominating and daunting lead over the rest of the GOP field, defying skeptics, while the low-polling candidates face increasingly dire prospects.

The latest CNN/ORC national poll out Wednesday shows Trump with a commanding, double-digit lead over Ted Cruz, bringing in 39 percent support among Republican voters, a 3-point bump from late November. Cruz trails with 18 percent. The results solidify the numbers from last week's Fox News poll -- in which Trump also picked up 39 percent and Cruz took 18 percent – showing the durability of Trump’s position at the top.


Polling-obsessed Trump celebrated on Wednesday, firing off a series of tweets expressing his glee. “Thank you America! Together- we will #MakeAmericaGreatAgain!” one tweet read.

Early-state Republicans, who once insisted that Trump’s lead would disintegrate before actual voting got underway, have now resigned themselves to the idea that he will not only compete in the Iowa caucuses, but will likely place in the top three, and has a path to winning New Hampshire.

“There was no Trump bubble,” said Jamie Johnson, an influential Iowa pastor who previously aided Rick Perry, the former Texas governor and sharp Trump critic who has since dropped out. “As we’ve all discovered, it didn’t burst...This is real.”

Kim Reem, who heads the Iowa Federation of Republican Women and isn’t backing a candidate, also said there’s no denying Trump’s staying power. “I think he can stay in it as long as he likes. I don’t think he’s going anywhere.”

She added that pundits and operatives have been “wrong every time” on predictions of Trump’s demise. “I don’t think we’ve seen someone like him in modern times do what he’s doing. Good for him, he’s very good at it,” Reem said.

Meanwhile, much of the rest of the still-13-strong field is facing a new challenge, with Fox Business Network rolling out criteria on Tuesday that could shrink the next main debate stage on Jan. 11 to just six candidates.

The news represents a potentially big blow to Sen. Rand Paul, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Carly Fiorina, who have previously been in main stage contests, but would now be kicked to the undercard debate. To prevent that from happening, they need to either make it into the top six, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by Fox News, or place within the top five based on an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire state polls recognized by the network.

Paul, defiant, said on Wednesday he would not accept being relegated to an undercard debate. “I won’t participate in any kind of second-tier debate,” Paul said in a radio interview with Fox News’ host Brian Kilmeade.

“I’m not gonna let any network or anybody tell me we’re not a first- tier campaign,” Paul said. “If you tell a campaign with three weeks to go that they are in the second tier, you destroy the campaign.”

Republican operatives agreed with that assessment, saying that being removed from the main stage could be disastrous for those candidates this late in the game.

“Psychologically it sends the message that their campaigns are flagging, maybe they had their moment in the sun and it’s passed them, or maybe they’re not going to break through this year,” said Eric Woolson, an Iowa Republican strategist who was backing Scott Walker before he dropped out.

“The candidates who have been in that main debate have had their opportunities to break through and they just haven’t done it,” Woolson added. “There will be some who argue the national media is picking winners and losers in the contest, but we have come a long way in this process. Campaigns have had that opportunity to make the mark, break through, and at this point in the process, their inability to do so is catching up with them.”

Ryan Williams, a GOP consultant who supports Jeb Bush, noted that the polls used to set the next debate include those conducted in early states, and to the extent that they’re a reflection of real voter sentiment on the ground, he said, “it should be a sign to those candidates that the end is near.”

The latest CNN poll shows just how much ground the candidates on the cusp of falling off the main stage must make up. It has Kasich in 9th place nationally, with 2 percent support, and Fiorina in 10th with 1 percent. Paul, however, edged Jeb Bush in the poll, grabbing 4 percent support to make 6th place. The former Florida governor, who entered the 2016 race with a fundraising juggernaut that scared others into staying out of the race, came in with just 3 percent support.

The poll underscores the perpetual frustration of once-promising candidates who have tried and failed to knock Trump off his game. Bush and Kasich have been the most aggressive, with Bush launching a new “chaos candidate” line against the real estate mogul. Kasich’s campaign and his super PAC have also been relentless in trying to expose Trump as unserious.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who got 2 percent support in the CNN survey, vented about people's fixation with polling numbers on Wednesday, saying they're often hogwash. "I know polls are all that people talk about, but nobody has voted yet," Huckabee said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "Polls have been incredibly off-key in many, many key races across the country over the last couple of years, and I think we might be surprised at what happens Feb. 1 when the Iowa caucuses actually happen and people are voting and not just answering a phone."

Trump’s numbers, however, just keep rising, even while – and perhaps because – he keeps rolling out sensational moments, like his proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S. and his vulgar comments about Hillary Clinton getting “schlonged” by Barack Obama in 2008.

The survey also shows retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio tied with 10 percent, slight decreases for both from the same poll conducted in late November and early December. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie grabbed 5 percent,

Compared to late July, when just 48 percent said they would rather see one or two candidates win rather than everyone else, this time, 60 percent said they would, a notion reflected in the one-two finish of Trump and Cruz, who has gained on the Manhattan businessman in other recent state and national polling. Based on the Republican voters who said they watched the Dec. 15 debate, 33 percent said Trump won the night, while 28 percent said Cruz was the victor.

But Trump has a commanding lead when voters are asked about Trump’s ability to tackle pressing issues. He held double-digit advantages over Cruz when it came to how Republican voters saw each candidate's ability to handle the economy (up 48 points over the Texas senator), illegal immigration (up 40 points), and the Islamic State (up 26 points).

Asked whether Republicans have a better shot of recapturing the White House with Trump or with someone else, voters were split, with 46 percent thinking the businessman had a better chance and 50 percent with another candidate. But it's another sign of strength for Trump: In the same poll conducted in mid-August, just 38 percent said he was the party's best chance, compared to 58 percent who said they would have a better chance with another candidate.

On whether Trump has the right experience to be president, 67 percent to 33 of all voters said he did not, while 57 percent to 42 percent of registered Republicans said he did. Asked whether they would be proud to have him as president, 65 percent to 34 percent of all surveyed said they would not, while 60 percent to 39 percent of Republicans said they would. And while 63 percent to 36 percent of registered Republicans said he shares their values, 62 percent to 37 percent of all voters said he did not. Voters, overall, were slightly more receptive to Cruz in expressing that he has the right experience to be president.

Rubio leads the field in terms of overall net positive favorability among all voters, up 12 points (46 percent to 34 percent), followed by Cruz, up 6 points (45 percent to 39 percent) and Carson, up 3 points (43 percent to 40 percent). Trump, meanwhile, stands at 18 points underwater among all voters, with 39 percent favorable and 57 percent unfavorable. Those numbers still represent an improvement from September and mark his lowest overall unfavorable numbers in the survey since the first time the question was asked in 2011.

The poll was conducted Dec. 17-21 via landlines and cellphones, surveying 927 voters who said they have or will register to vote, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.The sample also includes 438 registered voters who described themselves as Republicans or as independents who lean Republican. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.