Hannah Sparling and Jessie Balmert

According to the Ohio Department of Education, as of Nov. 30, the percentages of Crawford County juniors — the class of 2018 — who already have met requirements or are “highly likely” to do so under the current rule are: Buckeye Central, 90.4 percent; Bucyrus, 55.6 percent; Colonel Crawford, 72.6 percent; Crestline, 66.0 percent; Galion, 67.2 percent; and Wynford, 76.6 percent.

If the current 18-point standard is eased to 14 points, those numbers rise dramatically, although most districts still fail to hit 90 percent: Buckeye Central, 98.6 percent; Bucyrus, 78.7 percent; Colonel Crawford, 85.7 percent; Crestline, 81.1 percent; Galion, 77.6 percent; and Wynford, 88.3 percent.

,

,

,

,

One in two. If Ohio’s new graduation requirements go forth as planned, that’s how many would-be North College Hill City Schools graduates in the class of 2018 might not make it.

It’s a terrifying thought for Superintendent Eugene Blalock. And his own analysis is even more apocalyptic than the state’s. Blalock ran the numbers, and instead of the state’s estimate — about 45 percent of current juniors in the district on track to graduate in 2018 — he got 38 percent.

Blalock’s staff is already working with students on remediation and on exploring alternate paths to earn a diploma.

“I’m nervous,” he said. “I’m not sure that politicians understand what’s going on in the actual classroom.”

Starting with the class of 2018, Ohio is increasing the standards to earn a high school diploma, with students required to earn a certain number of points on a series of seven statewide end-of-course exams. Or, at least, that was the plan. But if the plan goes forth as it stands now, it appears many would-be graduates won’t be graduates.

According to estimates presented in December to the State Board of Education, only about two-thirds of Ohio students supposed to graduate in 2018 have either already met the new requirements or are “highly likely” to do so.

There are other ways to earn a diploma, and state officials are quick to point out the estimates were not meant to be predictors of graduation rates. They don’t account, for example, for students with disabilities who might be exempt from some requirements. They don’t account for students who might have scored higher on a test retake after the initial scores were collected. They don’t account for students who choose another pathway, such as earning an industry credential, bypassing the test requirement.

“There’s still essentially two school years left (before the requirements take effect),” said Chris Woolard, with the Ohio Department of Education, “so there’s a lot of things happening.”

‘Lowering the bar’

Schools have had years to prepare for the higher standards, but they simply didn’t do it, said outgoing State Board of Education President Tom Gunlock, a Republican from Centerville.

Ohio is only asking students to achieve a sophomore-level education to graduate, he said — “that doesn’t seem like that should be an outrageous requirement” — but many districts failed to adapt their curriculum to the new standards.

The state board could ease up on the requirements, Gunlock said, but whom does it really help if students aren’t prepared for college or work?

Even if the minimum point requirement was dropped from 18 to, say, 11, some schools would still struggle, Gunlock said. And what do standards mean if the state lowers them every time it looks like students won’t make it? The focus has to be on a quality education, he said, not on making sure scores look good.

“Is an education more important, or is a diploma more important? If the diploma is more important, let’s give everyone a diploma and move on,” Gunlock said. “Lowering the bar is not helping.”

What’s next?

The state board formed a work group in December to examine the requirements and present recommendations, likely in the spring. These are the options: The board could do nothing (unlikely), and the new requirements will roll into effect in 2018. It could lower the minimum point total students need to graduate. Or, it could shoot for something more drastic, such as changing the number of end-of-course exams students are required to take. That, however, would require a change in state law.

Board member Pat Bruns, a Democrat who represents Hamilton and Warren counties, sees the battle as a chance to shift course on education in Ohio, to “break the chain of this relentless march through testing.”

Bruns is in favor of doing away entirely with graduation requirements tied to tests. A test is a point-in-time snapshot, she said, and it’s not what matters when it comes to college or a career. Companies don’t care how their employees scored on a science test, she said; they care whether they can solve problems, think creatively, work in groups and take leadership roles.

People in the statehouse, Bruns said, need to listen better to people in schools.

“We have to get out of the way,” she said. “This is not helpful.”

At North College Hill, guidance counselor Bonnie Donofrio started meeting with juniors after the holiday break. They’re confused about the graduation requirements, Donofrio said, and “they just feel tested to death.”

Donofrio tries to explain the best she can, but for some questions, she doesn’t have good answers. She’s hesitant to tell students everything will be fine when she’s not sure it will be.

She sees frustration, anxiety and discouragement, with students twirling their hair and biting their fingernails during the talks.

“It’s frightening to the students,” Donofrio said. “It’s a little shocking to see the scores and see how it may affect their lives.”

How it works

As it stands, here’s what it will take to earn an Ohio high school diploma in 2018:

•Complete a minimum of 20 credits in required courses, such as English, math, science, social studies and health.

•Meet one of the following three criteria:

Earn a cumulative 18 points on seven end-of-course exams. Earn an industry credential in a career field, including a passing grade on a workforce readiness test. Earn a “remediation-free” score in English and math on the ACT or SAT.

The seven end-of-course exams are required by law, but the State Board of Education sets the point total, 18, needed to graduate. Board members could lower that score on their own, allowing more students to graduate. A more substantive change, such as reducing the number of exams, would require a change in state law.

Source: Ohio Department of Education