Tropical storm expected soon in Atlantic; Hurricane Norman winds hold steady at 150 mph

Cheryl McCloud | Treasure Coast Newspapers

Show Caption Hide Caption WeatherTiger829_Tropics_HQ Here is your weekly tropical outlook.

After a quiet start to what historically is a busy month, the Atlantic basin could see a tropical storm form by Friday. By 11 a.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 formed in the far eastern Atlantic and tropical storm warnings were issued for the Cabo Verde Islands.

The next named storm would be Florence.

Closer to Florida, a tropical wave over the north-central Caribbean is expected to bring increased rain chances to Florida into early next week.

Interactive map: Track active storms

In the Pacific, Hurricane Norman is now a major hurricane, with 150-mph winds, and is forecast to grow stronger over the next 24 hours.

Atlantic

Tropical wave

A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from Hispaniola eastward to the Leeward Islands, as well as the adjacent northeastern Caribbean Sea and Atlantic waters.

More: Watch the seas as hurricane season hits most active stretch | WeatherTiger

This activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any significant development of this system during the next several days.

Environmental conditions could become more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

A tropical wave... una onda tropical... bringing locally heavy rains, with some flood risk, and rough ocean conditions to portions of Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. https://t.co/IQ9kqkeZj8 — Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb) August 30, 2018

Regardless of development, this system could produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.

Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days: 10 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 6

Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands Friday as Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 gradually becomes more organized.

Location: 260 miles east-southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph

Movement: west at 13 mph

At 11 p.m., the disturbance was centered 260 miles east-southeast of Cabo Verde Islands.

More: 'Weather models have flipped the switch': Hurricane season coming to life in the Atlantic

The system is moving toward the west near 11 mph, and a general west to west-northwest track with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days.

On the forecast track, the disturbance or the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph, with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Friday or Friday night.

Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone Friday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

Santiago

Fogo

Brava

More: National Hurricane Center director: False storm assumptions are dangerous, fuel complacency

Formation chance through 48 hours: 90 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days: 90 percent.

Activity picking up

With the peak of hurricane season fast approaching - Sept. 10 - the tropics are beginning to show increased activity.

The period between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10 accounts for 60 percent of all Atlantic Basin hurricanes and 75 percent of all major hurricanes, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University.

While the Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet so far this year, increasingly favorable conditions could lead to an uptick in tropical threats in the coming weeks: https://t.co/4UfDGyt2dG pic.twitter.com/euBe1HOs9u — AccuWeather (@breakingweather) August 30, 2018

Forecasters are urging residents to pay close attention to the tropics because there are signs that conditions in the Atlantic are becoming more conducive for tropical development.

Pacific

Hurricane Norman

The intensity of Hurricane Norman has leveled off, though it is still a category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds.

Location: 740 miles west-southwest of Baja California

Maximum sustained winds: 150 mph

Movement: west-southwest at 9 mph

At 11 p.m., the eye of Hurricane Norman was 740 miles west-southwest of Baja California.

Norman is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turn toward the west and west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph, with higher gusts. Norman is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

More: NOAA now predicts less-active Atlantic hurricane season

Wave heights may reach 45 to 50 ft near the center of #HurricaneNorman by this evening as the system is expected to continue to intensify. The hurricane will track away from land over the next several days. pic.twitter.com/Syk7JYazh6 — NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) August 30, 2018

Gradual weakening is anticipated. However, Norman is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.

Hurricane Miriam

Hurricane Miriam is heading west across the Central Pacific, far from land. The storm is expected to strengthen more today before starting to weaken Friday.

Location: 940 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph

Movement: northwest at 8 mph

At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Miriam was located 940 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

2018 Atlantic hurricane names The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. This year, experts from Colorado State University predict 14 named tropical storms, of which seven will become hurricanes. Both numbers are above the average of 12 and six, respectively.

Miriam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the north is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Friday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts. Some additional intensification is expected today, followed by fairly rapid weakening Friday through Saturday night.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

Tropical wave

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with an area of low pressure.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwest away from the coast of Mexico.

Formation chance through 48 hours: 40 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent.

NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook provides 48-hr and 5-day chances of tropical cyclone formation. Long-range model forecasts of tropical cyclone formation beyond 5 days are often unreliable and can show large variability between models and from one model cycle to the next. pic.twitter.com/GFU8SKIJtr — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 30, 2018