Colorado 2016 US President Survey Release

Magellan Strategies has released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely 2016 general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted November 1st and 2nd and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Survey Findings

Our final survey of likely voters in Colorado finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 6 points, with 44% supporting Hillary Clinton and 38% supporting Donald Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is down to 7%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 2% support, 2% support for “some other candidate” and 7% are undecided.

Compared to our last Colorado survey on October 12th, we find that Hillary Clinton’s support has increased by 4 points from 40% to 44%, and Donald Trump’s support has increased by 3 points from 35% to 38%. Gary Johnson’s support has declined by 5-points and Jill Stein’s support has declined 3 points. We believe that Hillary Clinton is the beneficiary of the declines in support for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, although she may have lost some support to Donald Trump, especially among voters 65 and older.

Looking at results by voter subgroup, it is no surprise Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 17 points among women, yet trails him by 5 points among men. Hillary Clinton is also doing very well among voters 44 and younger, a ground that traditionally leans Democrat. She is also holding a significant 10-point lead among unaffiliated voters that are likely to make up approximately 30% of the vote.

Summary

Entering the final weekend before Election Day, we find Hillary Clinton’s 6% margin over Donald Trump being very similar to Barack Obama’s win margin over Mitt Romney (5%) in 2012. It will be interesting to see if this survey’s projections hold on Tuesday night. We will be closely watching to see if Republican turnout reaches the same percentage of active and inactive Republican registration in 2012, which was 77.5%.

Survey Weighting Decisions

Our survey weighting decisions take into account the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado and the demographics of current returned ballot data.

Survey Sample

The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Survey Commissioned By

This survey was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.