The former South West Trains franchise, which is now run by South Western Railway Getty Images / Dan Kitwood / Staff

2018 has started with a now-annual British tradition: national outrage from commuters at the yearly increase in rail fares. At 3.4 per cent (the figure is linked to inflation), this year’s is the highest since 2013, prompting protests at some stations, fury on social media, and Labour calling for the railways to be renationalized. Just like, well, pretty much every year.

The news is particularly damning, given that although it still outperforms many services in Europe, the UK’s rail network is by its own data, overcrowded and unreliable. Overall 12.3 per cent of trains in 2016 were late or cancelled, according to the Office Of Rail and Road – a decade high. And the number of London commuters standing at peak times is also increasing; if you’re on a rush-hour train arriving into Moorgate, for example, more than 40 per cent of passengers last year had to stand.


Improving capacity on railways is hard: passengers numbers in the UK have risen dramatically in recent years, while the underlying infrastructure – signaling, train stock, and stations – have lagged behind. “Passenger numbers have doubled over the last 20 years, and we’ve not doubled the number of trains,” says Bruce Williamson, of campaign group Railfuture. “We’re still playing catch up from decades of under-investment.”

If you’re one of the 583,000 people who commute into London (and the UK’s other cities, although there crowding is less of a problem), paying more money for increasingly overcrowded trains is likely to cause outrage.

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The overcrowding problem has been exacerbated by the introduction of new train fleets – including the Bombardier-built Class 387, and the Siemens-built Class 700 Thameslink trains – which, while providing modern features like air conditioning and charging points, actually feature fewer seats than those they replaced, instead using wide, continuous aisles to allow more standing. What's more, in recent years government guidelines for new trains have changed to increase the number of people allowed to stand per square-metre (from 0.45 sq/m per person to 0.25) before it's deemed overcrowding. No wonder so many passengers say they are unhappy with the amount of seating on their commute.

“I think it’s absolutely unacceptable that despite wages remaining stagnant, people are paying more to be crammed into overcrowded trains,” says Lianna Etkind, of the Campaign For Better Transport.


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In defense of the train companies: 'Metro'-style trains make sense, design-wise. Rail gauge is a fixed width, double-decker trains mean digging new tunnels, and some 12-car trains are already too long for some platforms. Which means standing is one of the few ways to increase capacity to meet soaring demand without laying new tracks.

The good news: if you’re a London commuter, at least, that trend could be about to change. Starting in May 2018, Govia Thameslink will start to roll-out services from the £7 billion Thameslink program – a project more than two decades in the making – to connect rail routes across London and the South East. And the Rail Delivery Group has estimated 6,400 new trains will enter service by 2021.

A Govia spokesperson says the Thameslink upgrades should mean capacity for more than 35,000 new passengers into London at peak times, with the help of more 12-carriage trains, and new services. That reflects around 70 per cent of Thameslink’s new capacity, which due to recent delays we now won’t see the full effect of until at least 2020.

The bad news: passenger data suggests 169,000 passengers are currently standing on trains into London at peak times, which means it’s unclear just how much the new services will alleviate crowding problems. And, inevitably, it doesn’t make your commute any cheaper.


But Thameslink may have one other ace up its sleeve: the new network will include the introduction of digital signaling technology standards, which will allow trains to run automatically through central London segments. Because digital communications let each train understand its position relative to others on the same track, that means more trains can run closer together – which is how Thameslink hopes to achieve London Underground-style services just minutes apart through central sections. And, in the Autumn Statement, the chancellor announced further government investment in rolling out digital signaling nationwide. That means fitting more trains on existing infrastructure.

“It not only allows trains to run closer together, it reduces the effect of knock-on when things go wrong,” Williamson says.

Ultimately, no amount of digital signaling is going to replace serious infrastructure investment. “[Digital signaling] is probably the last thing in the armoury to squeeze more capacity out,” Williamson adds. Long-term, the only way to seriously increase capacity is more railways, such as the imminent Crossrail program. And those cost money. So don’t expect cheaper train tickets anytime soon.