By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Minister of Tourism yesterday expressed optimism that much of the industry will resume normal operations “in a fairly short timeframe” if Irma holds its forecast track.

Dionisio D’Aguilar told Tribune Business that the Category 5 ‘super storm’ would spare the Bahamas’ major resort properties, which are located on New Providence, Grand Bahama, Abaco, Eleuthera, Exuma and San Salvador, the worst of its wrath should the meteorologists prove correct.

“If it maintains its current path we reckon we will be up and running, and back in business, in a fairly short timeframe,” the Minister said, as Nassau, in particular would be spared “the full brunt of it”.

Mr D’Aguilar said Irma’s current track took it across “lower density” tourism areas such as the south-eastern Bahamas, where resorts and similar guest accommodation were smaller and fewer in number.

“On the current track, it will be a lower density impact,” he added. “The majority of the high density tourism areas will be less affected. The areas that will be highly impacted are the ones where we have a lower density of hospitality product.

“At the moment it’s a small portion of our population and, as a result, a small portion of our tourism product that will be adversely impacted by this storm, but that could change.”

Mr D’Aguilar reiterated the Ministry’s concern about media coverage that could portray the entire Bahamas as devastated by Irma, scaring away potential visitors when such destruction was confined to fewer islands.

“We’re always very concerned that the message gets out that the destination is devastated, when only certain parts will have been,” he told Tribune Business.

The Minister acknowledged that the sudden change to Bahamasair’s international schedule was likely to have caused inconvenience for some, but said it was essential to divert all available planes for the southern Bahamas pre-Irma evacuation effort.

“I think we’ve gotten out almost all that want to go,” Mr D’Aguilar said. “I think we’ve fulfilled that goal.”

Meanwhile Branville McCartney, the Democratic National Alliance’s (DNA) leader, echoed those warning that the Bahamian economy and Public Treasury “cannot afford” a Matthew-type hit from Hurricane Irma.

Warning that the Bahamas “cannot take it”, he included himself among those still or just recovering from Matthew’s ravages almost 12 months later.

“The Bahamas cannot afford a further hurricane,” Mr McCartney argued. “We have not recovered from the last two hurricanes, Matthew and Joaquin.

“From a personal point of view, about two weeks ago I completed renovations on a triplex property in Coral Harbour that was seriously damaged from the last hurricane almost a year ago.

“That property was a mess,” the DNA leader recalled. “It was next to the canal, and almost got deluged by severe flooding, roof damage. It was completely devastated and took almost a year to renovate. We still have persons in homes where the roofs have not been repaired, and I’m very concerned for them in that regard.

“Matthew was devastating, and if this were to come and be the same type of devastation, it doesn’t bode well for our already-struggling economy where things are tough. We can’t take it. I don’t think the Bahamas can take another Matthew-type storm. The country can’t afford it, and it will inevitably set us back.”

Recalling how Matthew’s shock to the Government’s finances led to the Standard & Poor’s ‘junk’ downgrade last Christmas, Mr McCartney acknowledged that Irma could lead to the same fate with Moody’s.

“We just don’t have the money,” the DNA leader told Tribune Business. “It’s not there. The economy has not improved in any form or fashion since the election. The situation certainly lends itself to becoming another downgrade.”

Mr McCartney said the Bahamian economy had been struggling for sustainable growth ever since the 2008-2009 recession, and added: “There doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel.

“From a retail point of view people don’t have the money; from a legal profession point of view I have a bunch of receivables people can’t pay; and the reality for property rentals is that a lot of people are out of work and just can’t pay on time. From a business viewpoint, things are already tough.”