NY Democratic Primary: More Frustration

Richard Charnin

April 20, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Democratic Primaries spread sheet.

Election Fraud Slides

Momentum was on Bernie’s side. He had just won a solid victory in Wisconsin. Now he was coming home. A Brooklyn native, he was drawing great crowds. The following entertainers gave speeches on his behalf: Harry Belafonte, Tim Robbins, Susan Sarandon, Mark Ruffalo, Spike Lee, Rosario Dawson.

Pre-election polls showed that Hillary was a likely winner. But Bernie had the Big Mo; he would overcome the systemic fraud which plagued his campaign in the primaries.

NYC was a natural for Bernie, despite the fact that Hillary Clinton was a senator for eight years. But it was Arizona all over again. Thousands of voters reported their registrations were changed or dropped.

Only 22% of approximately 8 million registered voters turned out. Clinton won by 57.9-42.1%.

The UNADJUSTED exit poll indicated a close race. Hillary led by just 52-48%, an 11.8% discrepancy from the recorded vote. There were 1391 respondents and a 2.6% exit poll Margin of Error. Clinton led by a whopping 62-38% in the vote count with 33% of precincts reporting.

At 9:03 pm, there were 1307 exit poll respondents, Clinton led the actual count by 680-627 (52.0-48.0%). With just 84 additional respondents (1391 total), Clinton’s lead increased to 802-589 (57.7-42.3%). She had 122 additional respondents and Sanders had 38 fewer.

How could Clinton gain 122 of 84 respondents and Sanders’ total drop? It is mathematically impossible. Therefore the final vote has to be impossible as well. The exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote with impossible adjustments.

CNN Exit poll- Gender Clinton Sanders 1307 respondents 9:03pm 680 627 Vote share 52.0% 48.0% Final EP: 1391 respondents 802 589 Adjusted Vote share 57.7% 42.3% Change: +84 respondents +122 -38

This excellent comprehensive analysis confirms that THE NY PRIMARY EXIT POLL USED IMPOSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE.

In 2014, NY voter registration was 49D-24R-27I. The split was 85D-15I in the exit poll, which (as always) was forced to match the 57.9-42.1% recorded vote.

Assuming primary voting was proportional to registration, the split would have been 65D-35I and the race would have been a tie. If Clinton had 58% of Democrats, Sanders won the election by 52.5-47.5%.

Final Exit Poll (adjusted) Mix Clinton Sanders Margin Democrats 85% 62% 38% 24% Independents 15% 28% 72% -44% Total 100% 56.9% 43.1% 13.8%

2014 Registration Mix Clinton Sanders Margin Democrats 65% 62% 38% 24% Independents 35% 28% 72% -44% Total 100% 50.1% 49.9% 0.20%

True Vote Mix Clinton Sanders Margin Democrats 65% 58% 42% 16% Independents 35% 28% 72% -44% Total 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%

How did the exit pollsters adjust Sanders 48% share in the NY primary at 9pm (1307 respondents) to 42% at the final (1391 respondents)? This indicates that an equivalent of 107,000 votes were flipped from Bernie to Clinton.

The pollsters had to increase the percentage of women voters by 1%, Clinton’s share of men by 5% and her share of women by 6%. The 125 increase in Clinton’s respondents among the final 84 exit poll respondents is obviously impossible. That is proof of Election Fraud in the NY Primary.

Assuming that Sanders’ 48% exit poll was accurate, he must have won the election due to thousands of suppressed votes. Sanders True Vote = 48% exit poll + suppressed vote.

The exit poll does not include approximately 400,000 disenfranchised voters (120,000 in Brooklyn and 280,000 elsewhere). Therefore Bernie must have had approximately 52%, assuming he had 70% of 400,000 disenfranchised voters.

Sanders True Vote = 52% = 48% Voted + 70% Disenfranchised

= 48%* 1790 + 70% * 400 = 860+280

= 1140 / 2190

The following table is a sensitivity analysis of Sanders share as a function of his share of the suppressed vote and the exit poll. As you can see, Sanders wins 24 of the 25 scenarios.

Sanders% Suppressed Vote Sanders 65.0% 70.0% 75.0% 80.0% 85.0% Exit Poll Sanders True Vote 50% 52.7% 53.6% 54.6% 55.5% 56.4% 49% 51.9% 52.8% 53.7% 54.6% 55.6% 48% 51.1% 52.0% 52.9% 53.8% 54.7% 47% 50.3% 51.2% 52.1% 53.0% 53.9% 46% 49.5% 50.4% 51.3% 52.2% 53.1%

As always, the final CNN exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote. http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NY/Dem

View the Early Exit Poll vs. Final (matched to recorded vote) vs. True Vote

Probability of 11.8% exit poll discrepancy

……………..Sanders Clinton Margin

Recorded …..42.1%….. 57.9%……15.8%

Exit poll…….48.0%…..52.0%……4.0%

The probability P of the discrepancy is 1 in 126,000.

P = 1- normdist(0.579,0.52,.026/1.96, true)

Sanders’ exit poll share declined in the recorded vote in 18 out of 19 primaries.

The probability: P=1-binomdist(17,19,.5,true) = 0.000038 = 1 in 26,000.

Cumulative Vote Shares

NY Primary Congressional District cumulative vote shares indicate a trend to Clinton with increasing district size reminiscent of increasing, non-intuitive GOP vote shares in Governor and Senate elections.

DATA SOURCES

The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)

CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.

The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Final NY Exit Poll – forced to match the recorded vote

Gender Mix Clinton Sanders Margin men 41% 50% 50% 0.00% women 59% 63% 37% 26.00% Total 57.67% 42.33% 15.34% Age Mix Clinton Sanders Margin 18-29 18% 35% 65% -30% 30-44 24% 53% 47% 6% 45-64 39% 63% 37% 26% 65+ 19% 73% 27% 46% Total 57.46% 42.54% 14.92% Race Mix Clinton Sanders Margin white 59% 50% 50% 0% black 22% 75% 25% 50% latino 14% 64% 36% 28% asian 2% n/a n/a other 3% n/a n/a Total 54.96% 45.04% 9.92% Party id Mix Clinton Sanders Margin democrats 83% 62% 38% 24% republicans 3% n/a n/a independents 14% 28% 72% -44% Total 55.38% 44.62% 10.76% Ideology Mix Clinton Sanders Margin very liberal 29% 44% 56% -12% somewhat liberal 37% 59% 41% 18% moderate 29% 67% 33% 34% conservative 5% n/a n/a Total 54.02% 45.98% 8.04% When decided Mix Clinton Sanders Margin last week 23% 57% 43% 14% earlier 76% 58% 42% 16% Total 57.19% 42.81% 14.38% Area Mix Clinton Sanders Margin urban 64% 62% 38% 24% suburban 31% 51% 49% 2% rural 6% n/a n/a Total 55.49% 44.51% 10.98% Region Mix clinton sanders Margin new york city 52% 63% 37% 36% long island 9% 58% 42% 16% hudson valley 16% 56% 44% 12% urban upstate 14% 50% 50% 0% rural upstate 9% 42% 58% -16% Total 57.72% 42.28% 15.44%