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Ontario and New Brunswick would be most exposed to a collapse of the North American Free Trade Agreement, just as looming elections in Mexico and the U.S. place new urgency on reaching a final agreement in the talks, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

A new report Thursday by the ratings agency also found that resource-rich provinces Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador would see a muted impact from a NAFTA fallout, largely because commodities are not expected to face higher tariffs if the agreement is scrapped.

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Moody’s determined the economic impacts by assessing the relative size of provincial exports to the U.S. as a share of gross domestic product, as well as the type of industries most dominant in each respective province.

Exports to the U.S. by New Brunswick account for 28.5 per cent of its total GDP, the highest in the country. Ontario was next highest at 26 per cent. The report also said that Ontario’s sizeable manufacturing sector, particularly auto, is highly exposed to increased tariffs due to its integrated supply chain with the U.S.