By Leith van Onselen

Statistics NZ has released new projections that New Zealand’s population will rise by 1 million people (+21%) over the next 20-years on the back of strong immigration from Asian nations:

New Zealand’s population is projected to increase by about 1 million in the next 20 years, with all major ethnic groups growing, Stats NZ said today.

The ‘European or Other’ group is projected to drop from 75 percent of the New Zealand’s total population in 2013 to about 66 percent in 2038.

“Slower growth in the broad ‘European or Other’ ethnic population is due to its older age structure compared to other ethnic groups,” population statistics senior manager Peter Dolan said.

In contrast, ethnic groups with higher birth rates or higher migration gains will increase their share of the population. The Māori ethnic population is projected to increase from 16 percent of the population in 2013 to 18 percent in 2038. The broad Pacific ethnic group is projected to increase from 8 to 10 percent, and the broad Asian ethnic group from 12 to 22 percent, over the 25-year period…

The projections indicate that the Chinese, Indian, Samoan, and Middle Eastern/Latin American/African ethnic shares of New Zealand’s population will increase, with the Chinese and Indian ethnic shares almost doubling…



New Zealand’s total population is projected to grow from 4.4 million in 2013 to 5.8 million in 2038, an average annual increase of 1.1 percent…

The broad Asian ethnic population is projected to exceed the Māori ethnic population by the early 2020s, and projected to exceed 1 million in the late 2020s. The Māori ethnic group is projected to surpass 1 million in the mid-2030s…



Net migration also contributes to Asian population increases in the early years of the projection period, with median Asian net migration gains assumed to exceed 20,000 people a year during 2014–20, and 15,000 a year after 2021. Chinese net migration is also high in the early years of the projection, falling to 4,000 a year in later years. Indian net migration follows a similar pattern…

All ethnic groups are expected to see a rise between 2013 and 2038 in their respective median ages. For the total New Zealand population, the median age is projected to rise from 37.6 in 2013 to 41.9 in 2038. From the projections, the largest increase in median age is in the Asian ethnic group, rising from 30.6 in 2013 to 40.4 in 2038. This rise reflects the ageing of the large cohort currently in their 20s.

