May 11, 2015

Ayman al-Zawahri, the emir of al-Qaeda since 2011, has not spoken publicly since September. This is his longest absence from the public stage since the fall of Kabul in 2001. It is likely he is biding his time for a special purpose.

The 63-year old Egyptian has been a jihadist fighter and plotter since 1981 when he was part of the conspiracy that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. He has been a brutally tortured prisoner, a fugitive for decades wanted by dozens of intelligence services and a prolific writer of books about the global jihad. Zawahri has been a constant on al-Qaeda's al-Sahab propaganda media arm for a dozen years, through scores of taped messages.

On Sept. 4, Zawahri announced the formation of a new al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). He said it had been in development for years and would seek to intensify jihadist activity in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma and the Maldives.

Within days, the new group took credit for an attempt to hijack a Chinese-built Pakistani frigate equipped with ship-to-ship missiles, named the Zulfiqar, from a naval base that houses nuclear weapons in Karachi. The plot was spearheaded by al-Qaeda-recruited Pakistani navy personnel. The goal was to use the hijacked Zulfiqar to attack US Navy and allied ships in the Arabian Sea but it was foiled before the ship left Karachi harbor. Al-Qaeda had wanted to attack a US aircraft carrier, its most audacious plot since 2006. Since then the new al-Qaeda group has taken credit for a wave of assassinations of secular opponents of jihadism in South Asia.

But Zawahri has been uncharacteristically silent. He did not comment when al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) took credit for attacking Paris in January 2015, an attack AQAP said Zawahri had ordered. Zawahri had been calling for an attack in France for a decade, so his silence is all the more notable. It was a triumph, yet the emir said nothing.