Second, while the protesters in Kiev have put on an impressive demonstration of civic engagement, they are not representative of Ukraine as a whole. Ukrainians, when forced to choose, are deeply divided about the binary options of Russia or Europe currently being presented to them.

An early December poll showed that the number of Ukrainians favoring closer ties with Russia was equal to the number favoring closer ties with Europe. But the regional divides run deep in Ukraine, and the euphoria of recent protests shows no signs of eroding them. Nationwide, 37 percent of those polled preferred membership in the European Union while 33 percent favored the Russia-led Customs Union. In the country’s western regions, that proportion was 73 percent to 5 percent, whereas 46 percent in the east and 62 percent in the south of the country prefer the Customs Union to joining the European Union.

So while Western officials may feel an affinity for the views embodied by the 500,000 protesters in Kiev, they should remember that 12.5 million Ukrainians voted for Mr. Yanukovich in 2010 on a platform of restoring ties with Russia.

Western officials recognized the results of that election and, like it or not, they need to accept the decisions of the government it produced. Throwing the full support of the United States and Europe behind the opposition’s efforts to oust Ukraine’s elected government seems decidedly unwise when a legitimate path for changing that government is available in presidential elections in early 2015.

The West must recognize that Europe cannot integrate Ukraine by opposing itself to Russia. Without the support of its south and east — which are politically, economically and demographically dominant — a democratic Ukraine isn’t going anywhere, and those parts of the country are unlikely to support a European project framed in anti-Russian terms. Indeed, the vision of a European Ukraine as a bulwark against Russia finds no resonance among the majority of Ukrainians.

The deals signed in Moscow earlier this week have been widely portrayed as a Russian victory over the West. In fact, the agreements represent a lifeline for Ukraine’s parasitic model of governance, prolonging a fundamentally unsustainable status quo for perhaps another year.

It is only the geopolitical gamesmanship between Russia and the West that enables this dysfunctional system to continue. The winner this week was that system. Russia, the West, and, most importantly, the Ukrainian people, will continue their 20-year losing streak.

Samuel Charap is a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.Keith A. Darden is an associate professor in the School of International Service at American University.