Kim Norvell | Des Moines Register

The Register and USA TODAY, Des Moines Register

It has been 395 days since U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren began zig-zagging across Iowa, spreading her progressive populist message about attacking corruption and reshaping government to work for everyone — not just the rich and powerful.

Since her first appearance on Jan. 4, 2019, in Council Bluffs, Warren has been up and down in the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll — leading the poll in September but slipping into second place in November and ending 3 points behind the leader in early January.

All the while, Warren built a statewide campaign organization that has been lauded as the most sophisticated among the Democratic field of candidates.

Whether that ground game translates into a win today is what Iowa politicos will be watching. Though U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont leads recent polls, Iowa tends to reward those with superior relationships on the ground.

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Iowa caucus: Photos of caucuses, candidates at watch parties

Despite a lack of results, Warren took the stage at her caucus party at Forte Banquet & Conference Center around 10:30 p.m. to a fired-up crowd holding signs that said "Hope Over Fear" and "Courage Over Cynicism." No results had been reported.

"So listen, it’s too close to call. So I’m going to tell you what I do know," she said, before launching into what could be perceived as a victory speech.

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Warren focused on the different ways she and President Donald Trump view America: She said he does so from a lens of privilege, avoiding the military and building businesses with sordid reputations; she does so from a lens of hard work in a family of Vietnam War veterans before dedicating her career to studying why families go bankrupt.

"Tonight showed that our agenda isn't just a progressive agenda. It isn’t just a Democratic agenda," she said. "It’s America’s agenda."

She dedicated the night to her countless volunteers and organizers who put in the "hard work" to make a reality of an "America that lives up to its ideals."

"Here in Iowa, that's what happened. You came together. You organized. You showed that we are united in our conviction that hope defeats fear. That courage overcomes cynicism," Warren said. "That we will always be a stronger party and a stronger nation when we unite around our shared values to advance justice and expand opportunity for everyone."

She encouraged anyone watching to keep volunteering beyond Iowa and into other nominating states and to continue building a campaign "powered by hopeful, courageous people who will do the work to make the change we need.

"Because this race started here in Iowa, but from tomorrow it will run ocean to ocean, east to New Hampshire, and then west to Nevada, then down to South Carolina," she said. "This fight will stretch across all 57 states and territories that make up this great nation until we unite together as a party in Milwaukee. The road won’t be easy. But we are built for the long haul."

Roger Lau, her campaign manager, said the campaign's data show a tight race between Sanders, Warren and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with former Vice President Joe Biden trailing in fourth.

"I feel like it was a success for us. It's tightly packed," he said.

The team was scheduled to leave in a few hours for Manchester, New Hampshire, but Lau said they were disappointed in a lack of results before leaving.

"Every single second that passes where we don’t get a final result, it's concerning," he said.

Julián Castro, who has been a vocal critic of the Iowa caucuses, said what had unfolded Monday night proved the Democratic National Committee needs to reconsider the entire primary process.

“I’ve said this entire time that we’re going to have to evaluate after this primary is done … the debate thresholds, the order of the states, the caucus versus primary," Castro said. "What happened tonight made the argument for itself. Nobody can deny this is a broken way to do it. It was a total mess.”

Castro endorsed Warren after dropping out of the Democratic presidential race.

Earlier on Caucus Day, the senator from Massachusetts was back in Washington, D.C., for closing arguments of Trump's impeachment trial. But she didn't forget about Iowans — she held a town hall by telephone at 9 a.m. and is scheduled to be back in the state to watch results come in. Her campaign team said 50,000 people called in.

On the phone, Warren thanked Iowans for asking "tough questions" throughout her yearlong campaign and providing suggestions that shaped her campaign.

"You have made me a better candidate," she said. "And you will make me a better president."

In her final closing argument Monday, Warren said she is the candidate who "can pull our party together," pointing to the Iowans who are on her side after candidates they previously supported dropped out. She touted her grassroots campaign that's not shaped by high-dollar fundraisers and her goal "to run on our values" that are inclusive of all Americans.

"I'm running a campaign that includes as many people as possible. And you know what?That’s a campaign that's gonna win," she said. "That’s how we're going to beat Donald Trump in 2020."

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Iowa Caucus: Elizabeth Warren party photos

Several surrogates met with supporters in Warren's absence Monday, sending them off for their final canvasses, knocking on doors and making phone calls to the last-minute deciders. One surrogate was campaign co-chair U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., who is celebrating her 46th birthday Monday.

"Ya'll know what my wish is," she said as volunteers at the campaign's Ankeny field office sang "Happy Birthday" to her.

The congresswoman said she wants one gift: To make Warren the 46th president of the United States.

Warren later showed up at Roosevelt High School, the caucus site for DSM-41, on the northwest side of Des Moines, where Democrats have a stronghold. She touted her campaign's organization as a reason why she can win in Iowa and beyond.

"We need someone who will build an organization that is as good around the country as it is in Iowa," Warren said. "And I've got a great organization here in Iowa."

Speaking on a megaphone, she made the case to caucusgoers why they should support her when they align. She said she can "inspire" all people to come together, whether it's people needing affordable child care, struggling to pay student loans or retirees relying on Social Security.

"We have an opportunity as Democrats to lift every voice. We have an opportunity to build a party, to build an economy, to build a nation that leaves no one behind. That should be the pride of the Democratic Party," Warren said, eliciting cheers from the entire crowd, regardless of whom people were supporting.

She won the most state delegates at the Roosevelt High caucus site with six. Sanders and former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg earned four and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota earned three.

Before her three-minute speech, Warren greeted caucusgoers as they signed in, holding an impromptu selfie line in the lobby. She took photos with supporters, many of whom said "thank you" and "good luck."

Hunter Staszak, a senior in environmental policy and planning at the University of Iowa, caucused for Warren at DSM-57 in the Sherman Hill neighborhood. He later attended her caucus watch party, wearing Warren stickers and wristbands.

The 22-year-old said he was previously a supporter of Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who was known for his climate change platform, which Warren later adapted. He was also motivated by her rural and agriculture plans, which he saw as "tailored for Iowa," and her disability rights plan.

"That's the kind of inclusive candidate I want," Staszak said.

He said he was solicited by several Democratic presidential campaigns while at the university, but Warren's stood out as the most enthusiastic.

"Warren's team was really on top of it from the beginning, and they powered through," he said.

Warren as the 'queen of policy'

Warren was the first to hire key staffers, who quickly got to work collecting "commit to caucus" cards, opening field offices and recruiting precinct captains across the state.

Her first visit to Iowa, which was as part of an exploratory committee, included her signature "selfie line," which she later told the Des Moines Register is a way for her to hear directly from Iowans who didn't have a chance to ask a question in a town hall.

Warren has taken more than 20,000 selfies with Iowans around the state, according to the campaign.

She quickly laid out proposal after proposal on a host of issues, with Democratic congressional candidate J.D. Scholten dubbing her "the queen of policy." Warren began leaning on her "I have a plan for that" line in town halls, which resonated among Iowans.

Kelsey Kremer, kkremer@dmreg.com

She never stopped rolling out plans — six were released in the four weeks leading to caucus night, including a disability rights plan that some advocates hailed as the most comprehensive among the Democratic presidential candidates.

► Iowa caucus results: Follow live Iowa caucus results on Monday night.

Last summer, Warren drew one of the biggest crowds at the Des Moines Register’s Political Soapbox, easily attracting thousands of Iowa State fairgoers. It was the moment her 2% wealth tax became a rallying cry for her campaign, as supporters in the crowd began chanting "2 cents!"

Warren later demonstrated her organizing strength at the Polk County Steak Fry, where her staffers opted out of the traditional sign wars, instead setting up an "organizing HQ," where volunteers received tips for canvassing the crowd and signing up supporters.

In the November Iowa Poll, after intense scrutiny as the frontrunner, Warren's support slipped to 16% — 9 percentage points behind Buttigieg and 1 point ahead of Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden, who both tied for third.

Warren looks for a campaign reboot

After that, Warren changed her campaign style in Iowa as she looked to jumpstart her support, allotting more time for questions and interaction with potential caucusgoers. Those exchanges showed Iowans a more empathetic side beyond her reputation as a policy wonk.

She also leaned on new energy from former secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro, who endorsed her shortly after he dropped out of the Democratic presidential race.

Castro began stumping for her in the state, hoping to tap into his former supporters and create new excitement for undecided Iowans or supporters who saw Warren's luster fading.

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Election 2020: Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat campaigning for president in Iowa

Then, capitalizing on a strong debate performance in Iowa in which she turned a brewing spat between her and Sanders into an empowering moment, Warren began leaning more heavily on a new electability argument: "Women win."

Warren had accused Sanders of saying, in a private conversation, a woman could not win the presidential election in 2020. Sanders has denied saying that.

Warren's approach to Iowa has been slow but steady: She traveled here no more than twice a month through much of 2019.

She has ramped up her presence over the last few months, finishing with nearly 120 events in Iowa.

"I have the best team in Iowa," Warren said Saturday in Cedar Rapids. " ... I've been building a campaign from the beginning that's not a campaign that says us, nobody else. It's a campaign that says, come on in."

Still campaigning during the impeachment trial

Last week, Warren held another town hall by telephone while in Washington, D.C. for impeachment. The campaign estimated there were 20,000 Iowans on the call.

That, too, was a chance for organizing — the call's moderator had participants answer poll questions through their telephone number pad, asking whether they've committed to caucusing for Warren or if they're seeking more information on her candidacy and if they'd volunteer in the final days.

Warren has invested heavily on college campuses, densely progressive strongholds that supported Sanders, her far-left rival, in 2016. She has also invested considerable time in eastern Iowa counties that voted twice for Democrat Barack Obama before flipping in favor of Trump that year.

She was one of only three candidates to open field offices in Clinton County, a potential bellwether for more rural and smaller communities in the state with strong union ties and blue-collar roots. Joining her were Biden and Buttigieg; Sanders also has staffers there.

Warren has finished her run through the state with more than 550 endorsements from Iowans.

Late Monday afternoon, Deidre DeJear released a video on Twitter endorsing Warren. DeJear ran for secretary of state in 2018 and is a rising star in the Democratic Party here. She previously backed U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California.

"I am thrilled to be supporting Elizabeth Warren in this election," DeJear said. "She is one of those individuals who truly believes in the value of people and the hard work that they put in every single day to make do for their families and their communities. And she wants to be supportive of that."

Warren's campaign team claims it's the "widest and deepest pool of Iowa political support in the 2020 presidential field."

Voter guide: Don’t have a lot of time? Find FAQs on the key issues and where the candidates stand and more to make your vote matter.

Candidates on the issues: Find out how the 2020 presidential candidates plan to tackle healthcare, climate change, gun violence and more.

Kim Norvell covers growth and development for the Register. Reach her at knorvell@dmreg.com or 515-284-8259. Follow her on Twitter @KimNorvellDMR.