Hailed by Michael Salfino (TheAthletic, FiveThirtyEight, and The Wall Street Journal) for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” The Prospect Digest Handbook has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Pick up your print version here and your eBook version here!

______________________________________________________________________________

1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45/55 40/55 55 50 50+ 60

Background: It’s not easy living up to expectations of having a famous father. Bobby Witt Sr. was the third overall pick out of the University of Oklahoma all the way back in 1986, sandwiched between the likes of B.J. Surhoff (1st overall), Will Clark (2nd), Barry Larkin (4th), and Barry Bonds (6th). The former Sooner star was up in the big leagues by the beginning of the following season and spent parts of the next 16 years as a pitching vagabond. He finished his career with an even 104-104 win-loss record and a 4.83 ERA in 2465.0 innings. Enter: Junior. Primed as a top pick in this last year’s draft class for quite some time, Witt Jr., a supremely gifted shortstop from Colleyville-Heritage High School, rose to the occasion. Through the school’s first 32 games this season, the burgeoning star slugged an impressive .519/.598/1.160 with 12 doubles, seven triples, and 14 homeruns. And a bevy of awards and recognitions rolled in, including: National Senior Athlete of the Year by the National High School Coaches Association and he became the first high school player to crack the semifinalist list for the USA Baseball Golden Spikes Award. The Royals snagged the prep shortstop in the opening round, 2nd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $7,789,900 – the full recommended slot bonus. Witt spent the entirety of his debut in the Arizona Summer League, hitting a mediocre .262/.317/.354 with just two doubles, five triples, and one homeruns in 37 games. His overall production, as measured by Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, was 6% below the league average.

Scouting Report: Here’s what I wrote about Witt prior to the draft last year:

“A star for 18U Team USA, Witt Jr.’s production line last summer is just as dominant as his high school numbers. In nine games against some of the [most] elite talent available, he slugged a whopping .576/.615/1.121 with just four strikeouts – against a pair of walks – in more than 30 at bats. A patient hitter with explosive bat speed, Witt Jr. possesses the rare gift of true five-tool talent. The hit tool and power look like above-average offerings. And he does a phenomenal job keeping his hands inside of the baseball. He’s modified his approach at the plate over the past several months, eliminating a large leg kick in favor of a toe tap and then back to large kick. Defensively, he’s smooth with the instincts to remain at the position. He looks like Brendan Rodgers with upside.”

One more final note: after starting a bit slowly in the Arizona Summer League, Witt rebounded to slug .304/.347/.435 over his remaining 16 games.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

2. Brady Singer, RHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 60 55 55 60 60

Background: The first of five straight collegiate pitchers taken by the Royals to begin the 2018 draft – as well jumpstarting a depleted farm system – Singer was a key cog of that dominant Florida Gator pitching staff in 2016. Along with current teammate – and fellow 2018 first rounder – Jackson Kowar, the Gators’ staff included the likes of Alex Faedo , A.J. Puk, Shaun Anderson, Logan Shore, Scott Moss, and Dane Dunning. Singer, who was originally taken by the Toronto Blue Jays in the second round coming out of high school, didn’t make his highly anticipated debut until last season. The front office – aggressively – pushed the 6-foot-5, 210-pound right-hander into High Class A. And he proved to be up to the task. In 10 starts with the Wilmington Blue Rocks, Singer posted a 53-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 57.2 innings. He was bumped up to Northwest Arkansas on the first of June for his remaining 16 starts. In total, Singer tossed 148.1 innings with 138 strikeouts and just 39 walks to go along with a 2.85 ERA.

Scouting Report: Reminiscent of Corey Kluber in terms of build, physicality, and approach to pitching. Singer owns three above-average or better offerings: a 93- to 94-mph fastball that sneakily leaps from his hand; a late-tilting, tight 83-mph slider; and a solid 55-grade changeup. The arsenal’s not on par with current teammate – and former collegiate rotation-mate – Jackson Kowar, but Singer maximizes his arsenal with pinpoint accuracy. He made a total of 26 starts last season, 22 of those he completed at least five innings. He only walked more than two hitters just three times. He’s a burgeoning #2-type arm, maybe a touch better. With respect to his work in Class AA, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 21% and 23%; a sub-7.0% walk percentage, and a sub-4.00 DRA (Deserved Run Average) in the Texas League (min. 75 IP): Zack Greinke, Chase De Jong, and – of course – Brady Singer.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

3. Jackson Kowar, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 65 60 80 55 60

Background: Kansas City Royals veteran GM Dayton Moore is a firm believer that pitching is the true currency in the professional baseball universe. So, with that mind set and the club’s championship window fully closed after one helluva run, the franchise went into the 2018 draft like notorious bank robbers, snatching up as many polished collegiate arms available. And – full disclosure – I didn’t like the plan. I thought it (A) presented too much risk due to injury and (B) wasn’t overly thrilled with the caliber of arms the club was drafting. While Point (A) is still yet to be determined; I was clearly wrong on Point (B). Enter: enigmatic, overly talented right-hander Jackson Kowar. Taken with the 33rd overall pick two years ago, the former Florida Gator has a history of up-and-down performances – despite owning an upper echelon caliber arsenal. And nothing better exemplifies that than his debut showing in the South Atlantic League when he averaged just 7.5 strikeouts and a disappointing 4.1 walks per nine innings. Last season, though, arguably for the first time in his life, Kowar put it all together for an extended period. And it was remarkable. The 6-foot-5, 180-pound pound fireballer posted a 66-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 74.0 innings with the Wilmington Blue Rocks. The front office promoted the former first rounder up to Class AA, the toughest challenge in a prospect’s path to the big leagues, and Kowar upped the ante. Making 13 starts with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, Kowar fanned 78 and walked just 21 in 74.1 innings of work.

Scouting Report: The electric arsenal is still intact. His fastball was sitting in the mid- to upper-90s. And it touched as high as 98 mph during a mid-season start against the Frisco RoughRiders – which happened to be his first start in Class AA, by the way. His curveball is a knee-buckling, fall-off-the-table secondary weapon that’s progressed tremendously since his days at the University of Florida. As for his changeup? It’s breathtakingly lethal; the best in the minor leagues. Kowar throws it with so much pronation that the movement and fade looks like it’s a screwball. The control / command improved as well. Not only is throwing strikes more consistently, but he’s throwing quality strikes more consistently. Prior to last year I was concerned about Kowar’s being “too hittable.” The uptick in command has squashed those ill feelings. Kowar has the chance to be an upper rotation caliber arm.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

4. Daniel Lynch, LHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 60 50 55 55 55 55

Background: Full Disclosure: I was not fond of the Royals drafting Daniel Lynch in the opening round, 34th overall, two years. I had scouted a handful of his games during his senior season and (A) the velocity was fringy for a potential a top flight draft pick and (B) Virginia pitchers haven’t exactly lit up the minor league scene over the past several seasons. And then…voila! Instant Velocity. Just add the Kansas City organization. Immediately upon entering the Royals’ franchise Lynch’s fastball went from the upper-80s to touching the upper-90s with some exceptional late life. After dominating the Class A ball for nine starts, Lynch was ticketed for big things as he shot up prospect lists. And then injury struck – a wonky shoulder, to be exact. The 6-foot-6, 190-pound left-hander was limited to just 15 Class A Advanced starts and a handful of rehab appearances. During his time with the Blue Rocks, the former Cavalier posted a 77-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 78.1 innings. He compiled a 3.10 ERA and a 4.47 DRA (Deserved Run Average). He also made four brief starts in the Arizona Fall League as well, fanning 19 and walking a quarter in only 14.0 innings.

Scouting Report: From fringy to explosive to quite solid. The repertoire didn’t look quite as good as it did during his debut, though it was markedly better than his time with the Virginia Cavaliers. The fastball lost a tick or two – as well as half of a grade. The slider didn’t have the same bite. The curveball looked the same. And the changeup, on the other hand, bumped up for me – going from a 50-grade to a 55. I have (A) little doubt that the after effects of the shoulder injury sapped some of the arsenal’s lightning and (B) that he’ll be back to form by the start of 2020. A year later, Lynch still looks like a strong bet to ascend to a #3-type gig in the big leagues.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

______________________________________________________________________________

5. Khalil Lee, OF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45+ 50 70 55 45+ 50

Background: While many of the organization’s top young hitters took a collective leap backwards last season – not just a step, but a leap – Lee, a third round pick in 2016, regained his prospect footing after a disappointing second half in the Texas League two years ago. A product of Flint Hill High School in Oakton, Virginia, (Tommy Doyle, a second round pick out of the University of Virginia is an alumnus), Lee began the 2018 season by slashing a healthy .270/.402/.406 with 13 doubles, four triples, and four homeruns in 71 games with the Wilmington Blue Rocks. His production, however, cratered – massively – following his promotion up to Class AA. He cobbled together a lowly .245/.330/.353 triple-slash line in 29 games. To no one’s surprise, Lee found himself back in the Texas League for a do over. And the production, unsurprisingly, improved. In a career high 129 games with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the 5-foot-10, 170-pound outfielder batted .264/.363/.372 with 21 doubles, three triples, eight homeruns, and a whopping 53 stolen bases. His production, per Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 17%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post a 112 to 122 DRC+ with a double-digit walk rate and a strikeout rate north of 25% in the Texas League (min. 300 PA): Brandon Wood and Khalil Lee.

Well, that’s certainly a damning. Wood was once viewed a top prospect in baseball but later flamed out due – largely – to his inability to make consistent contact. Lee, like Wood, has battled swing-and-miss issues throughout the duration of his minor league career. And after showing some positive steps last season, his K-rate regressed above red flag territory. However – however – on the other hand, Lee’s production against left-handers last season (.268/.336/.412) was – easily – the best of his career. Lee’s capable of stuffing the state sheet like few others, offering up average power, plus speed, and a willingness to walk. The tools are incredibly loud. And he still has plenty of youth on his side. In terms of offensive upside think Shin-Soo Choo circa 2019 when he batted .265/.371/.455.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

6. Kyle Isbel, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55/60 45/50 60 45+ 55 50

Background: Buried shoulder deep among the bevy of collegiate arms the franchise hoarded during the 2018 draft. Isbel, a wiry 5-foot-11, 183-pound center fielder, was the first bat taken by the Royals that year. A third round pick out of the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, the 94th overall selection, the former Rebel left the Mountain West Conference school with a career .322/.390/.512 triple-slash line, belting out 40 doubles, 15 triples, and 21 homeruns in 170 games. Isbel continued along a similar offensive profile during his debut as well, batting an aggregate .326/.389/.504 with 22 doubles, two triples, seven homeruns, and 24 stolen bases in 30 total attempts between his stints in Idaho Falls and Lexington. Unfortunately for the potentially fast-moving prospect, several injuries – mainly a hamate issue – limited him to just 52 games in the Carolina League (as well as a few rehab appearances in rookie ball). Isbel batted a disappointing .216/.282/.361 with 15 extra-base knocks. His overall production in High Class A, per Deserved Runs Created Plus, was 14% below the league average. He regained his stroke during his 21-game stint in the Arizona Fall League as he slugged an impressive .315/.429/.438.

Scouting Report: Again, the 2018 draft class is approaching a historic path. Prior to succumbing to the hand / wrist injury, the 5-foot-11, 183-pound center fielder produced – well – like he always has. Through his first 13 games he slugged .348/.423/.630 with extra-base knocks. But he struggled after returning from the disabled list, hitting a pathetic .103/.132/.172 in 22 games. He finally regained his timing and slugged .279/.371/.426 over his remaining 17 games. There’s a nonzero chance that Isbel develops a plus hit tool to go along with his plus speed. Average pop with the potential to develop into 15-homer territory in the coming year. Throw in some solid peripherals and strong defense and Isbel looks like a surefire bet to develop into an above-average regular.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

7. Yohanse Morel, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 60 55/60 55/60 40/50 50

Background: The trade that sent hard-throwing, sometimes erratic right-hander Kelvin Escobar was – if I recall correctly – largely panned at the time. And if I’m being truthful: I hated it from the Royals’ perspective. Flame-throwing relievers are – typically – worth their weight in gold to a contending team down the stretch. And the Royals sent the free-agent-to-be to the Nationals for a package of three middling and/or unknown prospects: Kelvin Gutierrez, a second tier third baseman without a season OPS north of .800; center fielder Blake Perkins, a toolsy, twitchy former second rounder with a low .200s batting average; and some non-descript, low-level wild card of a pitching prospect. That hurler: Yohanse Morel, who jumped from the Arizona Summer League straight into Low Class A at the ripe ol’ age of 18 last year. And Morel shined brightly – despite his 6.02 ERA. In 14 games with the Lexington Legends, 11 of which were starts, the 6-foot, 170-pound righty posted a promising 57-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 52.1 innings of work.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only three 18-year-old pitchers met the following criteria in the South Atlantic League (min. 50 IP): a strikeout percentage between 21% and 23% and a walk percentage between 7.5% and 9.5%. Those three pitchers: Anderson Espinoza, who was widely considered a Top 100 Prospect prior to arm issues; Brayan Mata, a Top 100 Prospect heading into 2020; and – of course – Yohanse Morel, that aforementioned, previously non-descript pitching prospect Kansas City received in the Kelvin Herrera deal with the Nationals.

Really impressive, intriguing arsenal. Fronted by a mid-90s, explosive plus fastball, Morel complements the offering with two offspeed pitches that occasionally flashed plus in 2019. A hard-tilting slider and a changeup that shows tremendous arm side run and fade. And despite a solid walk rate, the command has ways – and ways – to go. I think it eventually gets up to a 50-grade over the coming. He’s raw. And several years away. But there’s an intriguing case to be made that if Morel navigates his way through the injury nexus, he has as high of a ceiling as any arm in the farm system. I really like this kid. A lot. There’s a curiously high upside to Morel.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

______________________________________________________________________________

8. Erick Pena, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 30/55 40/50 50 50 50 50

Background: With – unfair – Carlos Beltran comparisons swirling about at the time of his signing, KC inked the outfielder to a $3.8 million deal. MLB.com ranked him as the fifth best prospect on the international market.

Scouting Report: Pena didn’t make his regular season stateside debut – though he spent the fall putting in work in the Instructs. Loose, easy swing with strong wrists and blazing bat speed. Pena shows above-average power potential and a willingness to shoot the ball from gap-to-gap. He has the chance for loud tools across the board. He currently employees a toe-tap timing mechanism, though the team likely moves him away from that. He could vault himself up as the best hitting prospect in the Royals system within a year or two.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2023

______________________________________________________________________________

9. Kris Bubic, LHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 50 50+ 55 55 50

Background: The final of the club’s four first round selections two years, Bubic, who followed Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, and Daniel Lynch, was taken with the 40th overall pick out of Stanford University. A crafty, 6-foot-3, 220-pound left-hander, Bubic was a mainstay atop the school’s rotation for the better part of his three-year career; he finished his amateur career with a stellar 235-to-89 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 223.1 innings of work. Bubic spent his debut twirling games for the Idaho Falls Chukars, averaging 12.6 strikeouts and just 4.5 walks per nine innings. Last season, the herky-jerky southpaw made 26 starts between Lexington and Wilmington, tallying a dominating 185-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 149.1 innings of work. He finished his sophomore professional season with an aggregate 2.23 ERA.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 27% and 30% with a walk percentage between 6% and 8% in the Carolina League (min. 75 IP): Kyle Zimmer, the long term Royals top prospect who finally shook the injury bug last season, and Kris Bubic.

The savvy southpaw has performed better than I would have guessed. His arsenal is largely average – sans a 55-grade changeup. His fastball – once again – hovered in the 91- to 92-mpg range. At times last season his curveball looked a bit sharper than the previous year. And his above-average changeup adds a nice swing-and-miss dimension to his pitching style. Bubic succeeds on the basic principals of pitching: throw quality strikes and deception. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound hurler is all arms-and-legs and hides the ball well. It’s a bit surprising that the Royals didn’t bounce Bubic up to Class AA for a brief test. But he’s primed to be a late-season callup in 2020. In terms of upside, think Wade Miley, circa 2019: 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and a 3.98 ERA.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

______________________________________________________________________________

10. Darryl Collins, LF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 40/55 30/50 30 50 45/50 50

Background: Unearthed by Nick Leto, the Manager of Arizona Operations for the Royals, in the fall of 2018. Collins, according to an article by The Athletic’s Alec Lewis, recalls how the precocious then-16-year-old outfielder was competing – and succeeding – in the premier professional league, Honkbal Hoofdklasse, in the Netherlands. Standing a wiry, yet man-child-like 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, the teenage corner outfielder – who, according to Lewis, was named after Mets great Darryl Strawberry – made one helluva debut in the Arizona Summer League last season. In 48 games, Collins sported a hearty .320/.401/.436 triple-slash line, belting out seven doubles and seven triples. He finished the year with an impressive 30-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Per Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 51%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 17-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ total between 145 and 160 with a double-digit walk rate and a strikeout below 20% in the Arizona Summer League (min. 175 PA): Jeisson Rosario, a toolsy center fielder in the Padres’ system, Jordan Diaz, a raw albeit talented third baseman in the Athletics’ organization, Nino Leyja, and Darryl Collins.

Impressive bat speed complemented by some natural loft in his left-handed swing that should generate 15+ homeruns down the line. Collins showed some impressive tools last season during his debut: a solid eye at the plate, strong bat-to-ball ability, and decent, average-ish defense in left. If the power does come to fruition – which, again, I believe it will – he’s staring down the path of a league-average starter, maybe more. He has the potential to move quickly in the coming years.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

______________________________________________________________________________

Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.