Leading goal scorer over past three seasons has not been able to replicate production in postseason

Viktor Arvidsson has a pretty simple explanation for why his postseason statistics don’t measure up to the numbers he has produced in the regular season.

“The playoffs (are) harder,” he said. “Like, it’s way harder than the regular season.”

This year against the Dallas Stars, it was impossible. In the wake of a regular season in which he set a franchise record with 34 goals, the 5-foot-9 forward came up empty in the six games against the Stars. Zero goals. Zero points.

His performance was hardly the only thing that did not go expected as Nashville was eliminated in the first round for the first time in four years. However, at this point it seems that a postseason fade is almost to be expected from a player who has become so important to the Predators and their ability to succeed.

Since the start of 2016-17, Arvidsson has scored a team-leading 94 regular-season goals. Only Filip Forsberg, with 85, comes close among the rest of the Nashville roster.

Yet over the last three postseasons, he has scored just eight times in 41 games. Among the Predators with more playoff goals over the same stretch are Austin Watson (10) and Colton Sissons (nine), two players generally known for their defense.

Arvidsson’s goals-per-game rate in the regular season in that time is .435. In the postseason, it drops by more than half to .195.

“That’s the … part of the year where you want those players to be at their absolute best,” coach Peter Laviolette said. “I truly believe Viktor will get there. I think he’s a fierce competitor. I think he’s one of our top forwards. He’s been a consistent producer.

“You know, he’s probably feeling it. … But I don’t lack confidence in Viktor Arvidsson and his game and what he brings to our team and what he brings to the table.”

The only positive in all of that is that he has not managed to take his linemates, Forsberg and Ryan Johansen, down with him. Over the past three seasons, Forsberg has averaged .829 points per game in the playoffs, which is a slight drip from his regular-season rate of .908. Johansen’s production actually has increased in the postseason to .879 points per game as compared to .743 in the regular season.

Forsberg and Johansen, in fact, have done what they could to compensate. Those two and defenseman Roman Josi — the top three postseason scorers in franchise history — all have better goals-per-game rates in the playoffs over the last three years than they do in the regular season.

“For sure, it’s not fun,” Arvidsson said. “I’m relied on to score goals and I should do that in the playoffs too. It’s a little frustrating and I’ve got to be better.”

Eventually, his lack of production does catch up his team.

All-time, the Predators are 14-3 in the playoffs when Arvidsson has a point or more and 16-22 when he has none. That includes his first try at the postseason (2016) when — as a role player — he had just one goal and one assist in 14 games, but Nashville won both in which he had a point.

In the last three playoff series losses — Pittsburgh in 2017, Winnipeg in 2018 and Dallas in 2019 — which consisted of 17 games, Arvidsson failed to score a goal 14 times and did not produce a point 12 times.

“I think Viktor Arvidsson is a tremendous competitor and a tremendous player,” Laviolette said. “(Everyone) has seen what he’s done.

“... It hasn’t panned out in the playoffs for him as of yet. But I believe in that guy and I think it will.”