MONTREAL — Three months ago, the coronation of Pierre Karl Péladeau as leader of the Parti Québécois seemed like a fait accompli. Now, it looks like the media tycoon is single-handedly turning a cakewalk into an uphill climb.

That’s not what the party had in mind when a majority of its members pinned their hopes — essentially sight unseen — on PKP to restore flagging sovereigntist fortunes.

Rarely has a party membership been less curious as to what makes a prospective leader tick as the PQ activists who have turned the politically untested Péladeau into the candidate to beat in their leadership race.

In that spirit the first of the official party debates — held last week in Trois-Rivières — will mostly be remembered for the fact that a solid section of the audience booed attempts by Péladeau’s rivals to exact comprehensive answers from the front-runner.

Gathered again this week, the other four candidates changed tack and mostly kept their powder dry.

And so it was unprompted that Péladeau portrayed the quest for sovereignty as a race against the clock and a flood of incoming immigrants predisposed to oppose the aspirations of their Québécois hosts.

That statement was reminiscent of Jacques Parizeau’s bitter referendum night comment about money and the ethnic vote having caused his side’s defeat.

In its wake, the PQ spent years trying to restore its credentials as a party whose nationalism is civic and inclusive rather than essentially ethnic-based.

Péladeau backtracked the next day but not before his leadership rivals had dissociated themselves from his remarks and well after he took a beating at the hands of the media and the other parties in the national assembly.

His apology beat the publication of the latest CROP poll on Quebec voting intentions by only a few hours. Published in La Presse, that poll brought the PQ and Péladeau more bad news.

It reported a sharp drop in support for the ruling provincial Liberals . . . to the sole benefit of the Coalition Avenir Québec and Québec Solidaire.

As notorious as PKP may be, his central place in the leadership window is not having a measurable impact on party fortunes.

The CROP poll served as a reminder that when it comes to sovereignty and the PQ’s future, immigration is not the real problem.

The CAQ and Québec Solidaire are increasingly successful at challenging the PQ for the non-Liberal francophone vote, making the latter’s hope of again regrouping nationalist voters under its banner more and more elusive.

The leadership campaign is not moving the needle for sovereignty. According to CROP, in a referendum held this month 65 per cent would have voted No. Other polls have shown that the party tends to lag behind the competition in every age group except among older voters.

With about two months to go to the leadership vote, Péladeau still has time to repair the damage he has inflicted on himself or, alternatively, to dig himself down further.

But with every passing week he is becoming the favourite candidate of the other parties in the national assembly. So far the PQ’s rivals have seen much to like in Péladeau’s leadership campaign.

With the PQ contest in full swing he has yet to deliver a performance worthy of his front-runner status.

At the same time the debates have confirmed that there are other contenders who have what it takes to be more than just also-rans to an accident-prone political rookie.

Having invested PKP with their hopes for salvation, would enough PQ members reconsider their options to turn the tide against him before the May leadership vote? In a more normal party the answer to that would be a categorical yes.

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But faith has been trumping lucidity for a long time within the shrinking ranks of the PQ — to the point that more than a few of its activists routinely dismiss any outside criticism of Péladeau as a sign that he terrifies federalists.

The PQ has spent the bulk of the past two decades in denial over the decline of its cause. It may be a lot to ask for its most fervent members to open their eyes and see Péladeau for the not-ready-for-prime-time candidate that he is over a mere couple of months.

Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

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