Korean Headhunters

Prae.NightEnD vs SlayerS_BoxeR

Prae.ThorZaIN vs TSL_FruitDealer

oGs.MC vs ieS-Ciara

IM.MVP vs Mill.Adelscott

IM.NesTea vs ESC.GoOdy

ROOT.qxc vs MVP_Genius

oGs.NaDa vs TLAF-Liquid`TLO

Who will take down the Koreans?

will

The Teamliquid StarLeague is going to kick off this coming Saturday and, unlike leagues which shall remained nameless, there is no need for self-indulgent hype here. The TSL’s golden pedigree, its unparalleled roster of gamers and casters as well as a strong technical backbone has virtually guaranteed another unqualified success for the third iteration of this legendary tournament.Unlike the previous two seasons of TSL, this year boasts a roster that includes the best Koreans in the world - every GSL winner has signed on - and some of the strongest foreign talent ever.For a moment, I want you to forget the champion and forget the big rivalry matches. The one question you ought to be asking is, ‘Which foreigner is going to take down a Korean?’The first foreigner to defeat a Korean is going to be an instant celebrity and fan favorite. It may end up giving his career a serious boost. Whether or not he will welcome the added pressure is up for debate but the spotlights will focus in on him no matter what.The Koreans have a bounty of their heads. They know it and we know it. Who will go down first?I want to hear your opinions on the matches in the comments!If you listen to the whispers across the forums, you’d think NightEnd was the favorite to take this game. Boxer’s recent poor performance in Code S and subsequent drop to Code A has many fans flocking to NightEnd’s side.NightEnd’s support comes after he won TSL qualifier #14 (of 15) in a run that included no Terrans, much less one of GSL caliber. In the last month, NightEnd has racked up a mediocre 4-5 record against Terrans in notable Western tournaments: losing 1-2 to Satiini in the CraftCup, 1-2 to Strelok and most recently winning 2-1 over GoOdy in the Black Dragon League.To be fair, Boxer’s recent results against Protoss do not reveal much: two losses to San and TesteR are the only games vs. P he’s recorded since November. However, the fact remains that Boxer has been and still is competing at a much higher level than NightEnd. If Boxer is able to put business aside and focus on this tournament, he is the favorite. He has no GSL to distract him, he is in a better practice environment and he has Protoss players such as Alicia (who recently took down MVP) to practice against.In the public eye, momentum is clearly with NightEnd. With his TSL qualifier victory, he is breaking out onto the scene in a big way. His game against BoxeR is a chance to truly make a name for himself, one that won’t be forgotten any time soon. If he has a good head on his shoulders, NightEnd will have put the rest of the world aside and practiced for this match above all else.Meanwhile, Boxer’s fall from Code S has soured fans on his ability to advance very far in the TSL - many are expecting a quick exit from The Emperor.Here’s the truth: Boxer is the favorite against NightEnd. Both players represent significant unknowns (Just how far has Boxer fallen? How quickly is NightEnd improving?) but there is no reason a level headed assessment of this match would choose the far less experienced and accomplished player to win.Yes, even in StarCraft 2, that distinction goes to Boxer by quite a distance.Odds: 65% Boxer, 35% NightEnD.Uh oh.FruitDealer, who spent his entire pre-TSL interview apologizing for his fall from champion of GSL1 to middling Code S player, seems to know his way around ZvT. FruitDealer’s recent games include a 2-0 of Virus, now a Code S Terran. If you look back a bit further, the much hyped Bomber and Maka also fell at his hands. ThorZain’s recent record is not quite as decorated. With all due respect to Nerchio, an accomplished Polish Zerg and the only Zerg ThorZain has faced in notable competition since early January, he simply does not measure up to the Korean.ThorZain’s TSL qualifier (#12) saw him defeat excellent competition: Adelscott and ClouD are no pushovers. However, they are also not consistent Code S Zergs.ThorZain is the significant underdog heading into this one.Odds: 75% FruitDealer, 25% ThorZainMC is knocking on the door of becoming the first person to win multiple GSL championships. The last Zerg MC faced was July (another GSL finalist) and MC dominated thoroughly. He is considered the best player in the world and one of the favorites to take the TSL and GSL in one fell swoop.Ciara, a stellar player in his own right, has very few trophies to his name. His ZvP is middling versus mediocre Europeans, nevermind the Kratos Protoss. In the European scene, Ciara has been waiting just below the very top tier for quite some time, anticipating his chance to break out.This game won’t be that breakout event. With all due respect to an excellent Zerg player, I wouldn’t place my money on Ciara.After all, it’s MC we’re talking about here. Have you seen the man play lately?Odds: 95% MC, 5% CiaraTalk about a fall from grace.MVP, last season’s GSL champion, is sitting in Code A and looking behind him and below him with every step he takes. How far will he fall? Since winning that championship, five of his seven losses have been to Protoss players. Frankly, he’s looking lost in the game.On the other hand, Adelscott has been performing admirably. His third place finish at Assembly was the last time he was spotted in the wild and has instilled a sense of confidence in his fans and, no doubt, himself. His performance in the TSL qualifiers hasn’t hurt his improving image either.Look closer. Examining his results, one finds that Adelscott’s worst match up is PvT. He did well in two qualifiers (#8 and #12) but was eliminated by Terrans in both (Kas and ThorZain). His overall win percentage against European Terrans is barely above 50% and his recent results reflect that.Both players come into this match with holes in their game. But while Adelscott’s relatively weak PvT has been an ongoing problem for him and one that he has no doubt been working to address, MVP’s sudden descent has clearly taken the champion by surprise. He looks helpless in games that once would have been walkovers in his favor.Adelscott is preparing for this like mad. MVP’s disorientation may be his saving grace. In reality, though, that will probably not be the case.Odds: 65% MVP, 35% AdelscottIt’d be easy to take this game for granted. As a former GSL champion and consistently strong finisher, NesTea has the history to back him up.Here’s the thing: Goody can play. Specifically, he can play TvZ quite well. He boasts a winning percentage of 68% and is a regular at all of the top weekly tournaments across Europe. And yet, for all his excellent TvZ statistics, he seems to have trouble against some of the best European Zergs such as Morrow. Goody’s TvZ against Europeans is stellar but far from unbeatable.NesTea’s ZvT is his worst match up by far at just under 60% but his struggles came largely against some of the best Terrans in the world. It took MVP on his GSL4 championship run and Rain in his run to the finals in GSL3 to knock NesTea out of contention.How do I put this delicately? Compared to European Zergs, NesTea is a god. From his GSL2 championship to his heroic GSL4 semifinals run, there has never been a moment where counting NesTea out was a good idea, even against the best players in the world and even when the match’s balance is decidedly not in his favor.Goody is very good but NesTea is great. The Zerg will take this quite convincingly.Odds: 85% NesTea, 15% GoOdyQXC is an American Terran with a decorated past and a potentially impressive future. He collected a number of significant gold medals in 2010 and has his eyes on Korea in 2011.The American's present is less note worthy. Studying in Spain, it seems understandable that his StarCraft has slipped. Most recently, he put up no wins at the IEM World Championship, a competition with a decidedly lower level of player than TSL. In the past month, he has struggled against top tier foreigners and, with the exception of his TSL Qualifier #13 win, has shown no reason to believe he can compete with a Code S Protoss.For his part, Genius has given us little in the way of confidence. His Up & Down wins versus MVP were his first major victories since January. Against some of the best Terrans in the world, Genius would be a significant underdog.The problem is, as of this moment, QXC is not anywhere close to that tier of player.Odds: 75% Genius, 25% QXCGet your fireworks and noisemakers out. This is the main event.Two of the most beloved players on the planet are facing off: the wild new school in TLO versus the rock solid old school in Nada.After a semifinal and finals appearance in TSL qualifiers #10 and #11 (the only two he participated in), TLO’s qualification for this tournament has been virtually guaranteed for some time. TLO’s history has shown that he can play with the Korean Terrans, that he is one of the best in Europe and that he is a threat to win every game he enters by nature of his skill and threat of random.On the other side of the globe, Nada has been a consistently impressive Code S Terran waiting just below the top tier. His recent elimination at the hands of finalist July echoes his memorable elimination last season at the hands of silver medalist MarineKing. It’s probably overstating Nada's skill to say ‘it takes a championship caliber player to eliminate Nada’ but that is not far off the mark. The high caliber of player he loses to does give you an idea of Nada’s consistency.Nada has been playing at a higher level than TLO and the German’s recent history against Terrans is simply unimpressive. Nada is the favorite here by a significant margin.Odds: 70% Nada, 30% TLO.Don't put your money away quite yet.Placing a bet on any specific foreigners to beat a Korean would be a foolish wager. The Koreans are favorites in each and every match for the first round at least.And yet, one or two upsets may be in order early on. There's a reason the odds aren't astronomically in the Korean's favor (with the exception of MC) here nor will they be on Liquibet and similar betting platforms when the numbers are revealed. The Koreans are far from invulnerable - it would take some luck to beat one or two of them so early but nothing supernatural.Furthermore, Koreansfall to foreigners as the rounds progress. Players such as Jinro, Kas, Idra and more are capable of dealing damage to the Korean superstars.When it happens, the games will be career defining moments for the victors. Once the dust has settled completely, this clash of civilizations will no doubt yield blood from both sides of the conflict.We've been waiting for this for a long time. Let the games begin.