Last month, the Toronto Star reported that City Planning will know the revised costs of the Scarborough subway extension before the next municipal election. The public, however, will not know the updated costs until after the election.

Officials say there is no opportunity to release the figures through the normal process until the new council is sworn in. Critics have noted that Mayor John Tory does not want the numbers released ahead of the vote because it may hurt his campaign for re-election.

Recently, the public became aware of another update for one of Tory’s signature plans; Metrolinx released the construction and economic benefit figures for six new SmartTrack stations. While Metrolinx deserves credit for publishing this information, the way in which the numbers were presented was misleading. Tory did not seem to mind.

The mayor summarized the obscure findings eloquently in a tweet: “The Metrolinx analysis found the overall benefits of SmartTrack substantially outweigh the cost of building the stations. @Metrolinx estimates these stations will generate $4.58 billion in economic & social benefits – billions more than the $1.19 billion needed to build stations.”

Tory has faced much criticism for his SmartTrack plan, especially because he consistently champions it over more urgent priorities like the Relief Line. Was the Metrolinx SmartTrack stations update purposefully positioned to give Tory the good news story he needed to justify his project? A deeper dive into the details of the Metrolinx SmartTrack stations report offers clues.

First, the cost Metrolinx provided was the cost to build the SmartTrack stations; not life-cycle costs. The cost to provide train service to the new stations was not published, nor were other operating, maintenance, or staffing costs.

Next, the construction costs Metrolinx released are not broken down by station. The benefits and construction costs were presented for all six stations together; if one station has no value for money, it’s covered up by others that might.

Third, the monetized benefits ($4.58 billion) are presented for a 60-year period, which is the presumed life-cycle of the project. It is misleading to compare the benefits of a project’s life-cycle to its one-time construction cost. For most other projects, Metrolinx compared the life-cycle benefits with the life-cycle costs to understand value for money. This is consistent with international best practice, and is a defensible way to decide if a project is worth realising.

Lastly, we’ve been told that East Harbour – a SmartTrack station backed by First Gulf, the property developer who owns the adjacent lands – will be a catalyst for developing Toronto’s second financial district. Metrolinx likely fed First Gulf’s employment projections into the economic benefit calculations, justifying the new station.

The mayor’s office may even have insisted on this, as Tory has publically championed the development of those First Gulf-owned lands. Whether or not the plans are fully realized, First Gulf may use them to justify public spending on this station. It is not farfetched to imagine the influence developers may have over Tory’s other transit priorities.

Broadly increased access to our existing regional rail lines by means of new stations, lower fares, and higher frequencies of service is a worthy endeavour for a city starved of transit. What’s concerning is the way Metrolinx force-fitted their analysis, seemingly to satisfy the mayor’s agenda.

This also calls into question the decision-making abilities of senior staff at Metrolinx who chose to present the SmartTrack new stations costs in this way. Should Metrolinx have resisted political will and released the full costs for Tory’s plan? Should City Planning resist political will and release the revised costs of the Scarborough subway extension?

Hiding the true costs of these plans is what calls into doubt the rationale behind Tory’s initiatives. When politicians sidestep the evidence and make special-interest-driven decisions, the public pays the price. Overreaching political influence in the civil service is unhealthy for a democratic society.

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Metrolinx and City Planning must publish the full costs of all transit plans, especially if the mayor’s office is determined to hide them.

Matthew Canaran works in business development for a tech start up. He is also a former staffer in Metrolinx’s policy and planning department.

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