Another aspect of the Brazilian drought that will begin to get more attention is what happens to the safrinha corn crop. If the drought persists, soil moisture levels could be quite low heading into the Southern Hemisphere fall season. This would have a major impact on safrinha corn, which depends on abundant rainfall prior to the dry season setting in.

Farther south, drier weather would benefit developing corn and soybeans in Argentina. Favorably drier weather is expected from late this week through early next week before the potential for wet weather returns.

In the eastern Pacific Ocean, our latest calculation of the sea surface for the first half of January 2019 is 0.9 degree Celsius above normal. This is down from the 1.5 degrees C observed during the month of December 2018, but still within El Nino levels. The threshold for El Nino sea surface temperature departure from normal is 0.5 degrees C above normal.

We continue to see an El Nino signature in the weather patterns over both the U.S. and South America, with stormy weather in the south-central and eastern U.S., including the southern and eastern Midwest, along with the wet weather in Argentina.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at Michael.palmerino@dtn.com

(BA/ES)

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