BOSTON (CBS) — The Bruins have given forward Reilly Smith the candy, but they’re banking on him still swinging at the piñata and beating it to a broken, decrepit pulp.

The Bruins decided to pay out based on their projections rather than what we’ve seen in the recent past. They rewarded Smith for his lackluster 2014-15 (and second half of 2013-14) season with a two-year contract extension worth a cap hit of $3.425 million starting next season.

The extension was announced Friday as part of the Bruins’ double whammy with defenseman Torey Krug’s extension. The term (one year), cap hit ($3.4 million) and potential of the player (an improving third-pair defenseman who plays power play and sometimes plays in the top four) made Krug’s deal the less problematic of the two contracts. Both Krug and Smith were tied together by business last summer, when both were restricted free agents and signed one-year contracts for this season early in training camp. Both were scheduled to be restricted again this summer.

Smith comes off a 20-goal season in his first full NHL year. This season he has 12 goals in 63 games. The totals look great on the back of a hockey card until you dig a little deeper into them. He had nine goals in December 2013, which means more than a quarter of Smith’s Bruins production occurred in one month.

Like most of the Bruins, Smith has struggled this season. His 35 points are still tied for third on a team that’s in the bottom third of the NHL in goals per game. But what’s most alarming is that in the past 92 regular-season games (10 more than a full NHL season), he has scored 14 goals.

“I think just as a team we’re not scoring as much,” Smith said. “I think last year, as a whole, when your team is scoring a lot more, obviously you pick up weird points here and there. But we did a better job of closing out games last year than we have this year. So I think just as a whole, as our group, we have to do a better job of getting pucks to the back of the net and closing out games that are tight.”

That was the party line echoed by general manager Peter Chiarelli and coach Claude Julien about Smith’s production drop-off. Everyone’s struggling, so Smith’s struggling. It’s not worth boring you with the direct quotes. To his credit, Smith was able to bring up an area where he could improve to add to his own point total and be an actual catalyst for the Bruins’ offense down the stretch of the season. After all, Smith plays most of his shifts with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, two of the Bruins’ top three point-getters this season.

“Just a little bit more patience in front of the net,” Smith said. “There’s been plays there and you know when your team’s struggling to score goals, your first instinct is to shoot the puck as fast as you can. But there’s times where if you have a little bit of extra patience you can make an extra play instead of something a little easier. So I think that’s one part of my game that I’m trying to focus on right now, especially as our team goes through this stretch.”

It would also help if Smith went to the front of the net more. Too often, he’s become a perimeter player that can’t be effective regardless of what line he’s playing on. He’s got to want those dirty goals more because they’ll add to his total and open up more room for some fancier goals. Like Marchand, Smith has the stickhandling skills to put on the moves. When he’s at his best, Smith protects the puck well and finds ways to make his wiry frame work just right for emerging from the corners and wiggling his way around opponents in the slot. Smith’s also become adept on the point on one of Boston’s power plays, which has been an added bonus since the midway point of last season.

But now he’s been rewarded for future performance rather than what he’s already done. Chiarelli called Smith a 20-goal scorer. Well that was one season. He’s not likely to reach 20 goals this season. There have been more lulls in his production than upticks these past two seasons. He hasn’t improved drastically enough this season for anyone to project bigger and better things from him than what he’s already given the Bruins.

Chiarelli was right that $3.425 million is what the market bears for a 23-year-old winger with Smith’s experience. The numbers for 25-year-old Cam Atkinson compare favorably to Smith’s and the Columbus Blue Jackets just signed Atkinson to a three-year extension worth $10.5 million. It appears the Blue Jackets have the same gambler gene the Bruins have. Atkinson had 21 goals last season. He has 13 this year. The Blue Jackets have been ravaged by injuries and are in the bottom third of the NHL in goals per game. The rest of the team must be holding Atkinson back, too.

The timing of this extension is what’s disturbing. Smith hasn’t proven he can be a consistent top-six forward in the NHL. Even on the current Bruins roster, he’s claiming a spot in the top six mostly because of David Krejci’s injury and the chemistry that other players have with each other (Loui Eriksson and Carl Soderberg especially). Chiarelli’s decision to commit to Smith long-term at a rich price at this point in time is a rush job that that really wasn’t necessary or forward-thinking, considering what Chiarelli is going to have to deal with this summer.

Smith said the one-year contract for this season hasn’t bothered him. So the Bruins could’ve waited until the season was over to lock him up, if they chose that route. They could have had a full assessment of all their own players and players that will be available in the offseason. Even a remarkable finish to the regular season and playoff run by Smith wouldn’t have earned him more money than what he just got. Smith wouldn’t be able to change his age, his experience or his status as a restricted free agent. Arbitration wasn’t going to turn him into a $5 million man.

Smith seems like a smart guy. He acts mature for his age. He might take this as a healthy challenge to live up to the money rather than an excuse to coast.

“I think I welcome it. You know there’s probably a little bit more pressure,” Smith said. “But as a hockey player and playing in this organization and at this level, you welcome that every day because people get better every day. And just being able to cope with the challenges and cope with the changes in this league, I think every player, that’s what they dream to do.”

But if Smith doesn’t fulfill his dreams, Chiarelli has a little flexibility. This commitment is only for two seasons and Smith is too young for no-trade protection. Of course, if Smith doesn’t live up to the deal, his value sinks. Meanwhile, with Smith and Krug signed for next season, the Bruins have around $11 million to spend under the projected $71 million cap ceiling, using amounts listed on nhlnumbers.com. They have to get three forwards and one defenseman signed. Restricted free-agent defenseman Dougie Hamilton will be the biggest dilemma. The Bruins will also have to decide what to do about unrestricted free agent center Carl Soderberg. Smith’s $3.425 million, or even a portion of it, might come in handy this summer. It would’ve been shrewder for Chiarelli to use Smith’s lack of performance as a bargaining tool rather than capitulating to the market. That’s what restricted free agency is all about.

At some point, Chiarelli could run out of candy to dole out and that might make the next couple of seasons bitter for the Bruins.

Matt Kalman covers the Bruins for CBSBoston.com and also contributes to NHL.com and several other media outlets. Follow him on Twitter @TheBruinsBlog.