SCHWERIN, Germany — The German political establishment's worst nightmare could become reality this weekend when voters head to the polls for an election in the northeast: the far-right Alternative for Germany might, for the first time, become the most powerful party in a state.

To make matters worse, it could happen in Angela Merkel's back yard.

The refugee crisis continues to dominate the political landscape across Germany, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the country's most sparsely-populated state, and home to Angela Merkel's constituency, is no exception. The AfD has used the crisis to woo disaffected voters and makes it very clear who it thinks is responsible for the country's problems: Merkel.

“The refugee crisis has helped us, there’s little question about that,” Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD’s lead candidate in the regional election, said.

Holm’s party is polling at 21 percent, behind the Social Democrats (28 percent) and Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democrats (22 percent), but party officials are confident of a bounce on election day. It's happened before: in March in Saxony-Anhalt the AfD was polling at 19 percent and won 24 percent. It finished second in that ballot and hopes to go one further this time.

Whatever happens, the AfD will almost certainly enter its ninth state parliament out of 16. Number 10 will likely follow two weeks later when voters go to the polls in Berlin, where the AfD is polling at 10 percent.

The changing face of German politics was on display when Merkel traveled to Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in mid-August to meet with farmers, traditionally staunch supporters of her conservatives.

The chancellor was well prepared, telling farmers she would support their use of the weedkiller glyphosate, answering questions about security regulations, and describing in great detail how impressed she was by a combine harvester in front of the farm. The farmers weren't angry, but they were concerned.

“I’m not just a farmer, I am also a worried citizen,” one man told Merkel, without explaining what he was worried about. “Please use your power so that our children will have a safe future.”

The chancellor is aware that, as her popularity has been decreasing, her new far-right rival is trying to capitalize on these hard-to-explain fears.

At a campaign event in Schwerin a day later, Björn Höcke, the leading light of the AfD's right wing, spoke in the main square. The former teacher was asked to give his opinions on education, but went much further, being cheered for comments such as “I would like to live in a democratic state based on the rule of law. This is why I say ‘No’ to a multicultural society,” and “we can’t take this unbearable dictator of a chancellor anymore.”

The event ended with the crowd chanting “Merkel muss weg” (Merkel has to go).

The AfD doesn't really do local issues. It's happier to hammer home the anti-immigration message with slogans such as “Stop the asylum chaos.”

“National topics clearly dominate these state elections,“ said the AfD’s Holm. The former radio host is more softly-spoken than Höcke, but he leaves no doubt about his ultra-conservative stance.

“First, it was the Euro-Retterei, the [flawed] rescue of the euro, then it was the energy transformation with Merkel overtaking even the Green Party, and then — which marks the low point — the refugee crisis, which caused a fear among people about what else might come,” he said. “Those crises were managed poorly, and there was no conservative alternative [to the ruling parties.]”

Wounded big beasts

For decades, the two main parties — the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats — have fought it out to see who can lead a coalition government, both at state and national level. For a decade, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has been governed by a “grand coalition” of SPD and CDU.

The AfD claims there is no longer a difference between the two big beasts, thanks to Merkel's “social democratization” of her party as she opened the doors to refugees from Syria and the wider Middle East.

“We basically replace the old CDU, because Ms. Merkel moved it too far to the left,” Holm said, echoing comments from the national party leadership.

“For ten years, there has been a potential for a right-wing populist party,” said Tim Bleis, who works for an advice center for victims of right-wing violence in Rostock, the largest city in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

The state has form in voting for the Right. At the last state elections, in 2011, the extreme-right NPD won 6 percent of the votes to remain in the state parliament, where it has been since 2006. The threshold is 5 percent.

However, the NPD, which openly expresses neo-Nazi views, is stigmatized, and the other parties agreed on a policy called “Schweriner Weg,” essentially an agreement to ignore the party.

Back then, the AfD didn't even exist.

It's come a long way in a very short space of time. Founded in 2013 as a protest party against the largely German-funded bailouts for indebted eurozone countries, the AfD has morphed into an ultraconservative, anti-immigrant party that appeals to those who harbor right-wing views, Bleis said, but were repelled by the extreme nature of the NPD, as well as those wanting to rebel against the establishment.

At the AfD campaign event in Schwerin, there were protesters holding up signs against the “lying press” and the “warmonger United States.” One man was wearing a T-shirt that said “Großdeutschland,” which describes Germany's pre-World War II borders.

“To this day, Merkel pretends that Germany could take in everyone who’s persecuted. That’s disconnected from reality” — Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state premier Erwin Sellering (SPD)

An architect from Hamburg, who refused to give his name, said he was there to complain about what he called the “step-by-step Islamization” of Germany. One woman said she wanted to protest against “gender mainstreaming,” such as school children being taught about homosexuality.

The only common denominator seemed to be their disapproval of the current government’s refugee policy.

Worried about the rapid rise of the far-right, state officials from both major parties are trying to distance themselves from decisions taken by the national government in Berlin during the refugee crisis.

“To this day, Merkel pretends that Germany could take in everyone who’s persecuted. That’s disconnected from reality,” Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state premier Erwin Sellering of the SPD told Die Welt newspaper. Sellering declined to be interviewed for this article.

Lorenz Caffier, the candidate for Merkel’s conservatives, has repeatedly tried to paint his party as a stronghold of domestic security by pressing ahead with law-and-order policy ideas, such as a burqa ban.

It's an uphill battle for both parties. The SPD won 35 percent of the vote in 2011 and is on course for 28 percent this time, and the CDU is polling at 22 percent, down from a historic low of 23 percent last time.

'I have my doubts'

Out on the campaign trail, the big two are sticking to their guns.

“The difference from the CDU is obvious: the SPD speaks out for the man in the street,” Rainer Albrecht, a member of the SPD in the state parliament, told a passerby who asked him about the difference between the two parties as Albrecht handed out flyers by a shopping center on the outskirts of Rostock.

“I have my doubts,” the man replied.

Behind Albrecht, a handful of SPD volunteers folded flyers and handed out lollipops. Every one of them was unhappy at the leadership of Sigmar Gabriel, the economy minister and vice chancellor.

Earlier this year, Gabriel made a policy decision that enraged the local party faithful: he decided to raise taxes on petrol even though gas prices had fallen. This caused outrage in a predominantly rural state where many rely on their cars.

“Now people tell us ‘They are raising taxes, and at the same time there’s enough money for all the refugees,'” one of the SPD volunteers said.

It takes about five minutes to drive from where Albrecht was campaigning to the Rostock neighborhood of Groß Klein, which made headlines in early August when the city decided to move young asylum seekers out of an apartment after far-right extremists rioted in front of their house.

By mid-August, there were campaign posters for the AfD and the NPD on every street lamp in the main street that cuts through the neighborhood of Soviet-era apartment blocks.

“I’m not a Nazi, but I will vote for the AfD because something has to change,” said one Rostock woman, who refused to give her name.

If the AfD becomes the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the other parties will almost certainly club together to block it. But the effect will still be huge.

“If we end up becoming the strongest party in the parliament, this will have an enormous effect [on the national stage],” the AfD's Leif-Erik Holm said. “There also seems to be pressure now [on Merkel] to move further towards our direction — the question is if she wants to do that.”