“Challenges with the economy and governance will continue to foster uncertainty about the long-term prospects for the country,” the report states. While the assessment says the Afghan government “is increasingly able to execute parts of its budget and deliver very basic goods and services,” it also warns that “the government has yet to reduce corruption or extend governance to many rural areas effectively.”

The insurgency is again described as “resilient,” and the report repeats a complaint heard in Washington and Kabul: that so long as the Taliban can find haven in Pakistan, defeating them on the battlefield will be difficult if not impossible.

But other than advances in a few areas, including northern Helmand Province, the insurgency is struggling to make gains and consolidate them. And as Afghans take over the security mission, the Taliban are denied a favorite propaganda line that they are battling to liberate the country from a foreign occupying force, according to the assessment.

“Taliban territorial influence and control decreased” last year and through this spring, the report states. “The enemy is now less capable, less popular and less of an existential threat to the Afghan government than in 2011.”

Even so, “insurgents maintained influence in many rural areas that serve as platforms to attack urban areas and were able to carry out attacks with roughly the same frequency as in 2012 — although these attacks tended to be in less populated areas,” it said.