We’re nearly a third of the way through the 2019 NFL season and this crazy league still doesn’t make any sense. The Chiefs lost at home. The Browns got stomped after stomping the Ravens. The Saints are still good without Drew Brees. I’m at a loss but that didn’t stop me from putting together this week’s power rankings.

Rankings will be based on a number of factors, but the main overarching question when I decide on the order will be “If these teams played on a neutral field, who’d win?” So I won’t be overreacting to upsets and flukey results. One team beating another does not guarantee a higher ranking.

These are tier-based rankings. And instead of writing a few inane sentences on each team, I’ll highlight one team from each tier and give them a little more attention.

On the docket today:

The 49ers are FOR REAL for real

Russell Wilson is running away with the MVP race

The Browns are bad but I’m not giving up on them … yet

There’s no QB controversy in Carolina

Kliff Kingsbury pulling off miracles with the Cardinals run game

Dwayne Haskins and Josh Rosen might need to save themselves

With that out of the way, let’s rank some teams…

Tier 1: The Super Bowl favorites

1. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1, Point differential: +35)

2. New England Patriots (4-0, Point differential: +121)

3. San Francisco 49ers (4-0, Point differential: +70)

I know, I know: The 49ers haven’t played anyone. I don’t care. And I’ll say this: The 49ers were far more impressive against the Browns than the Patriots have been in either of their last two games.

Anyway, the 49ers are now No. 1 in Football Outsider’s DVOA, which are adjusted based on strength of schedule, so the AIN’T PLAYED NOBODY argument doesn’t really carry water. San Francisco has done what good teams do: Demolish weaker competition … and win a game when they cough up five turnovers, as they did against the Steelers.

The 49ers haven’t been lucky, either. They’ve already been hit pretty hard by injury, with FS Jimmy Ward, CB Ahkello Witherspoon and LT Joe Staley all missing time so far. And now they’ll be without FB/H-Back/TE/Talisman Kyle Juszczyk for the next month or so. That will certainly make Kyle Shanahan’s offense less fun, but I don’t think it will derail the season or anything. In the past, Juszczyk’s presence on the field hasn’t made much of a difference for San Francisco, as Bill Barnwell pointed out in the offseason:

From ESPN.com:

36.8 percent of San Francisco’s running plays with Juszczyk on the field result in a successful run by expected points added (EPA). Without Juszczyk on the field, though, that figure rises to 42.8 percent. The 49ers are successful on offense by EPA for 41.9 percent of their snaps with Juszczyk on the field. Without him, they’ve been successful on … 41.8 percent of their snaps.

The 49ers have a fast, aggressive defense loaded with talent at every level. They’re tremendously balanced on offense despite Jimmy Garoppolo’s inconsistency — which is to be expected with him coming off a major knee injury — and they still have the NFL’s best play-caller pulling the strings.

Tier 2: The other Super Bowl contenders

4. New Orleans Saints (4-1, Point differential: -1)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2, Point differential: +30)

6. Green Bay Packers (4-1, Point differential: +26)

7. Dallas Cowboys (3-2, Point differential: +41)

8. Seattle Seahawks (4-1, Point differential: +15)

9. Baltimore Ravens (3-2, Point differential: +38)

Despite some sub-optimal play-calling by offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, the Seahawks head into Week 6 leading the entire NFL in offensive DVOA. While Seattle is seen as a run-first team, it’s the passing game, which also leads the league in DVOA, that carried it to the top. And by the passing game, I’m, of course, referring to Russell Wilson, who should be running away with the MVP race at this point.

Wilson’s fiercest competition for the award appears to be Patrick Mahomes, who’s thrown one touchdown over the last two weeks and is fortunate to play in Andy Reid’s scheme, and Christian McCaffery, who trails guys like Mike Thomas, Dalvin Cook and Chris Godwin in Expected Points Added.

Top skill position players through Week 5 by total EPA, using data from @nflscrapR pic.twitter.com/NPsPWl3j3O — Dan (@danmorse_) October 8, 2019

Wilson, meanwhile, is on pace to do something that has only been done once in NFL history…

So far in 2019, @DangeRussWilson has a 73.1 comp pct with 9.0 yds/att. Only 1 QB in NFL history has had a 70.0+ comp pct & 9.0+ yds/att in a full season (min. 200 att) …@ProFootballHOF legend @JoeMontana in 1989 … The year he won both NFL MVP and Super Bowl XXIV MVP. — NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 7, 2019

That Wilson has the Seahawks’ passing game operating at such a high level is mind-boggling. Tyler Lockett is a great receiver, DK Metcalf has been everything Seahawks fans had hoped and tight end Will Dissly has been a pleasant surprise, but nobody would call this receiving corps stacked. And while Schottenheimer has done a fine job scheming up shot plays, Wilson is consistently being asked to make ridiculously difficult throws. Per Next Gen Stats, the Seahawks QB has an expected completion percentage of 62.5%. Only eight passers have a lower percentage. Yet, Wilson is completing 73.1% of his passes, which gives him a “completion percentage over expectation” of 10.5%. That leads the NFL by a WIDE margin.

While Mahomes and McCaffrey have benefitted from scheme — the Panthers lead the NFL in yards before contact — Wilson has had to produce outside of the Seahawks’ offensive structure.

One thing we track at @PFF is QB’s playing “in rhythm” and “out of rhthym.” Out of rhythm can be caused by the QB, defense, pressure, coverage, etc. Only two QBs have better PFF pass grades when out of rhythm than in rhythm this year: Russell Wilson

Kyler Murray — Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) October 9, 2019

And despite Wilson running around and throwing deep, he still hasn’t thrown an interception! He is doing EVERYTHING.

Wilson has Seattle sitting at 4-1 with a “meh” defense, an OK set of weapons and a coaching staff that forces him to play with one hand behind his back. How is this even a debate? Wilson is the MVP so far.

Tier 3: The rest of the playoff contenders

10. Detroit Lions (2-1-1, Point differential: +2)

11. Buffalo Bills (4-1, Point differential: +20)

12. Los Angeles Rams (3-2, Point differential: +12)

13. Indianapolis Colts (3-2, Point differential: -2)

14. Houston Texans (3-2, Point differential: +21)

15. Los Angeles Chargers (2-3, Point differential: +9)

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3, Point differential: -1)

17. Chicago Bears (3-2, Point differential: +18)

18. Minnesota Vikings (3-2, Point differential: +39)

19. Cleveland Browns (2-3, Point differential: -30)

I wasn’t very high on the Browns before the season, but I’m still not ready to give up on this talented team just yet. No, not even after that embarrassing effort on Monday night.

After games against the Seahawks and Patriots, the schedule gets easy enough that even if this team never fully gels, it could still go on a nice run. The Browns own the league’s second-easiest remaining schedule, and that includes the Seattle and New England games.

#Browns embarrassed themselves again on national television. The chorus renews, "Same old Browns." It's a team still coming together & taking its lumps. Once they're past Seattle & NE, this is their schedule: Den

Buff

Pitt

Mia

Pitt

Cincy

Zona

Balt

Cincy Season isn't lost — Brent Sobleski (@brentsobleski) October 8, 2019

The schedule is easy, and I still believe the Browns’ offensive problems are fixable. For the most part, the play-calling has provided Baker Mayfield with opportunities downfield, but the quarterback’s skittishness in the pocket has prevented him from doing taking advantage — or even trying to take advantage…

That’s probably frustrating for Freddie Kitchens, who maybe, sorta, kinda threw his players under the bus when asked if he was in over his head as a rookie head coach…

“No. I wouldn’t say that at all. Of course, that could be the narrative, that’s the easy thing to say. Look at the tape.”

My interpretation of that: I’m doing my job; the players need to execute.

I don’t necessarily disagree with him, but Kitchens has to be more proactive and adjust to how his quarterback is playing. The Browns need to run more no-huddle and quicker develop plays that get the ball out of Mayfield’s hands sooner. Kirk Cousins is the only starting QB with a higher average time to throw, per Next Gen Stats.

If Kitchens can adjust and get Mayfield more comfortable before the schedule eases up, a 9-7 or 10-6 finish is not out of the question. And that may be enough to win an AFC North division that is not as strong as we thought it would be.

Tier 4: Mildly interesting but not going anywhere

20. Carolina Panthers (3-2, Point differential: +22)

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3, Point differential: -7)

22. Tennessee Titans (2-3, Point differential: +22)

23. Oakland Raiders (3-2, Point differential: -20)

24. Denver Broncos (1-4, Point differential: -16)

25. Atlanta Falcons (1-4, Point differential: -50)

Anybody who has taken the time to watch the Panthers play since Kyle Allen’s spectacular season debut in Arizona has (or should have) realized that this team needs Cam Newton back behind center if it’s going to make a run at the playoffs.

Steve Smith is not one of those people, apparently. The former Panthers receiver was asked about Carolina’s quarterback “dilemma” on NFL Network, and here’s what he had to say…

This is weird Steve Smith whole mood change about what to do with cam when he comes back . pic.twitter.com/lUYQZPnLNb — Koonce (@KO0nce) October 8, 2019

“I hate to say it, but, with Allen, it seems like the playbook … is open a little bit bigger. There’s more plays in there with him. So I’m not really sure what they’re going to do but … here’s the question: Do they go with the hot hand? Or when Cam is healthy, is it Cam’s starting job? I’m not sure.”

This sounds like it’s ripped from the Charlotte Observer comment section and not a person paid to analyze the NFL. Since that game against the Cardinals, Allen has played poorly. He has shown no ability to manage pressure in the pocket or make sound decisions while dealing with defenders in his face. His accuracy as also been a major issue. As has ball security. Pretty much everything a quarterback is expected to do, Allen has a poor job of doing. This thread does a good job of breaking it all down.

Here's the Kyle Allen can't read the field or really play QB thread — Panthers Film (@PanthersFilm) October 8, 2019

As for the comment on the volume of the playbook, I’m not sure it even dignifies a response. Newton has been in a version of this offense since his rookie season, when he played under Norv Turner disciple Rob Chudzinski. He’ll never get credit for it, but Newton also happens to be one of the smarter quarterbacks in the league. Not to mention all of the things he allows the Panthers coaching staff to do in the run game. The playbook is not bigger. Maybe Smith thinks he’s seeing more plays, but this is only a fraction of what Carolina is capable of running with a healthy Newton.

If Newton is ever able to get healthy this season, it won’t take long for the coaches to insert him back into the lineup … no matter how good the team’s record happens to be at the time.

Tier 5: Bad but competitive

26. New York Giants (2-3, Point differential: -28)

27. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4, Point differential: -15)

28. Arizona Cardinals (1-3-1, Point differential: -38)

Because the Cardinals are a bad football team that nobody is paying attention to, this fact might have flown under the radar: Arizona is home to the NFL’s most efficient run game, according to Football Outsiders. And it’s not just Kyler Murray’s scrambling ability boosting that efficiency, either. The Cardinals also lead the league in success rate on non-QB runs, per Sports Info Solutions.

Here’s the crazy thing: They’re doing it with one of the worst run-blocking lines in all of football. These are the run-blocking grades for Arizona’s starting lineup, viaPro Football Focus:

LT D.J. Humphries: 58.7

LG Justin Pugh: 48.9

C A.Q. Shipley: 38.4

RG J.R. Sweezy: 60.0

RT Justin Murray: 53.9

The tape matches up with PFF’s evaluation. This line is bad, yet the Cardinals rank second in yards-before-contact. And it’s not like the running backs are creating a lot of yardage on their own. Arizona’s backs are averaging 2.0 yards after contact, which ranks 27th in the NFL.

So how is Arizona doing it?

Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme is doing the heavy lifting here, which might be surprising to some given that he’s known for his pass-happy approach. But anyone looking into the analytics community’s work on the run game in recent years could have seen this coming.

Tier 6: There’s always 2020

29. Washington Redskins (0-5, Point differential: -78)

30. Cincinnati Bengals (0-5, Point differential: -56)

31. New York Jets (0-4, Point differential: -62)

32. Miami Dolphins (0-5, Point differential: -137)

Josh Rosen’s career as a starting quarterback is already teetering on the edge, and he hasn’t even turned. Dwayne Haskins, 22, could be facing the same fate with everything that’s going on in Washington. And this is why I will never criticize a player doing everything in their power to get out of a bad situation. Antonio Brown turned out to be a terrible human being, but what he did in getting out of Pittsburgh before doing the same in Oakland remains an important moment for NFL players.

If Rosen or Haskins pulled a similar move to get out of their current situations, nobody could blame them. Neither has turned 23 but both of their long-term futures are already being questioned. And neither had a say in where’d they be playing or how much money they’d be making. The league decided that for them. It may be hard to feel bad for millionaires playing a game, but put yourself in their spot.

The Antonio Brown situation will undoubtedly be a big deal when the NFLPA and owners negotiate the next CBA, and I hope the players don’t allow the league to limit their already limited power any further.