We’re simulating the number of delegates each candidate will pick up on Super Tuesday. The dots above represent a range of possible outcomes.

These estimates, which include states that have not yet reported all their votes, are based on several factors: Our expectations of every candidate’s performance, the voting results in other states and the demographic makeup and historical voting patterns of voters in each state. As votes come in, we expect the uncertainty around our estimates will narrow.

We are running several different models for each candidate in each state; each line in the charts below represents a different model.

We’re also making live estimates for Democrats.