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1. Jarred Kelenic, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55/60 50/60 30 50 50 70

Background: There are very – very – few organizations that (A) can boast the talent Seattle has in their Top 2 prospects and (B) would rank Julio Rodriguez as the second best minor leaguer in their system. Times are changin’ for Seattle. No. Doubt. About. It. Tradin’ Jerry Dipoto acquired the former seventh overall pick last offseason in a megadeal with the Mets. The Mariners received Kelenic, Justin Dunn (another of the club’s best prospects), Gerson Bautista, Anthony Swarzak, and Jay Bruce for future Hall of Famer (maybe?) Robinson Cano, All-Star closer Edwin Diaz, and cash. Kelenic, a 6-foot, 196-pound center fielder out of Waukesha West H.S., looked comfortable in his new surroundings as he vaulted through three separate levels during his first full professional season. The young center fielder finished the year with an aggregate .291/.364/.540 triple-slash line with 31 doubles, five triples, 23 homeruns, and 20 stolen bases.

Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Low Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old hitters to post a Deserved Runs Created Plus total of at least 170 in any Low Class A league (min. 200 PA): Bo Bichette, Byron Buxton, Oscar Taveras, Jaff Decker, and Jarred Kelenic. It should be noted that Kelenic is the lone player to accomplish the feat in the South Atlantic League.

Now let’s take a look at his work in High Class A:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old hitters to post a Deserved Runs Created Plus total between 133 and 143 in any High Class A league (min. 175 PA): Jo Adell, Carlos Correa, Heliot Ramos, Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney, and Jarred Kelenic. Again, it should be noted that only four did so in the California League (Adell, Correa, Ramos, and Kelenic).

If you’re only as good as the company you keep, then Kelenic is pretty damn good. As I noted in last year’s Handbook there’s a lot of Christian Yelich brewing here. Above-average, maybe plus hit tool, 30 homerun potential, 30-stolen-base threat; solid glove.

Ceiling: 6.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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2. Julio Rodriguez, OF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55/60 50/60 30 50 50 70

Background: From dominating the Dominican Summer League – as well as being named the league’s Most Valuable Player – to reaching the California League within a year. It’s been an incredible season for the talented prospect out of Loma de Cabrera, Dominican Republic. And that’s before his age even enters the conversation. Rodriguez, by the way, is still only entering his age-19 season. With far less of a baby face, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound outfielder ripped through the South Atlantic League by slugging .293/.359/.490 with 20 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns. And he continued his torrid pace upon his promotion to High Class A: he slugged a Ruthian .462/.514/.738 with another 11 extra-base hits (six doubles, three triples, and a pair of homeruns) in only 17 games. When the dust finally cleared on just his second professional season, Rodriguez, who was a finalist for MiLB’s Breakout Prospect of the Year, batted an aggregate .326/.390/.540 with 26 doubles, four triples, and a dozen homeruns in 84 games. The budding star missed roughly two months at the start of the year with a hand injury, which makes the production all the more impressive. Seattle sent the young outfielder to the Arizona Fall League after the season; Rodriguez batted a more-than-respectable .288/.397/.365 with four doubles in 15 games with Peoria.

Scouting Report: Rodriguez is not only a man amongst boys already at this stage of his minor league career, but he grew an inch and put on 45 pounds since the last Prospect Digest Handbook. And at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, he’s now pushing the limits of his physical maturity. With respect to his production in Low Class A, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 18-year-old hitters to post a Deserved Runs Created Plus total of at least 160 in any Low Class A league (min. 250 PA): Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and – of course – Julio Rodriguez.

Enough said, right? Rodriguez is a budding star, though he doesn’t have nearly the same patient approach as his two aforementioned counterparts. The Mariners’ future face-of-the-franchise does everything else at an above-average or plus level. He’s going to be a perennial .300/.370/.550 type hitter, though he likely slides over into right field permanently. One more thought: per Fangraphs, Rodriguez’s average exit velocity was a stellar 92 mph with a peak of 109 mph.

Ceiling: 6.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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3. Evan White, 1B

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55 55 30 50 55 55

Background: In a move, frankly, they I didn’t think a Jerry Dipoto-led club would make – for a variety of reasons, like, say, most guys pass through Seattle as quickly as the changing weather. But Seattle inked the former first round pick to a hefty six-year, $24 million pact that includes three club options. It’s incredible financial security for a prospect that (A) hasn’t played above Class AA, (B) is essentially a one-dimension player, and (C) didn’t start showing any type of meaningful power until this season. Here we are, though. White, the 17th overall player taken in 2017 draft, spent the entirety of last season squaring off against the Texas League competition; in a shortened 92-game campaign, the 6-foot-3, 205-pound first baseman slugged .293/.350/.488 with 13 doubles, two triples, and a career best 18 homeruns. His overall production, according Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a staggering 53%, the best mark of his young career.

Scouting Report: Dipoto doubled down – clearly. So let’s take a look at how White’s stats measure up to his peers. Consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been just two 23-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ between 150 and 160 in the Texas League (min. 300 PA): former top prospect – who never quite figured it out at the big league level – Mike Olt and Evan White. The duo have nearly the same swing-and-miss rate (24% and 23%), though Olt walked twice as often (14.5% vs. 7.25%).

The good news: White’s power surge appears to be organic. His home ballpark was (A) the lowest run-scoring environment and (B) the most difficult place to drop a bomb in the Texas League. The bad news: the Texas League was the most friendly of three Class AA leagues in terms of offense. In the grand scheme of things if White turns out to be a bust, it’s a small financial commitment.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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4. Logan Gilbert, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 65 50 55 55 50/55 55

Background: The powers that be at Stetson University should really think about capitalizing on the school’s – quiet – ability to churn out quality pitching. Perhaps a name change to Cy Young University after Corey Kluber captured two of the awards in a four-year span and Mets ace Jacob deGrom won the prodigious hardware in back-to-back campaigns. Gilbert, an alumnus of Stetson University, continued to make some massive waves in his second professional season. The 14th overall pick two years ago, Gilbert rocketed through three separate levels last season, going from the Sally to the California before settling in for a – dominant – nine-game cameo in the Texas League. The 6-foot-6, 225-pound right-hander finished the year with 135.0 innings of work, recording an impressive 165-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.13 ERA.

Scouting Report: Every time I watch Gilbert throw – and it’s been quite a few times over the past two seasons – the immediate comparison that jumps to mind, at least physically, are the Weaver brothers (Jeff and Jered). Long and gangly, but athletic. Gilbert attacks hitters with a standard four-pitch mix: a 60-grade fastball that sits in the mid-90s with some heft to it; an above-average slider and changeup, and a slower, loopy-ish curveball. Gilbert’s more of a strike-thrower than a command guy, but if it continues on the same trajectory he should wind up with 55-command. I thought the slider would wind up as a plus-offering, but it seems to have settled in comfortably a tick below. He’s a mid-rotation, true #3 arm for a decade plus.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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5. George Kirby, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 55/60 55 50 55 55 50

Background: The New York Metropolitans had a wildly successful 2016 draft, landing hard-throwing right-hander Justin Dunn and savvy southpaw Anthony Kay in the opening round and plucking hulking cornerstone Peter Alonso in the second. But taken all the way down the draft, as the 970th overall pick, the club called out a prep right-hander’s name: George Kirby from Rye High School – though the two-sides never came to an agreement. Kirby, a lanky 6-foot-4, 201-pound righty from Rye, New York, has been a sensation throughout his tenure for the Elon Phoenix. In 16 games for long time Head Coach Mike Kennedy, five of which were starts, Kirby posted an impressive 55-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61.0 innings of work. He also saved a pair of games for the Colonial Athletic Association school during his freshman season as well. Kirby, who’s father George played baseball for Florida International University, followed that up with an even better showing during sophomore campaign: in 90.2 innings the promising youngster fanned 96, walked just 27, and posted a 10-3 win-loss record to go along with a sparkling 2.89 ERA. But that was just a smattering of dominance that Kirby had buried in his right arm. Pitching in relief for the Harwich Mariners in the Cape Cod League, he posted an absurd 24-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a barely-there 1.38 ERA against an elite level of competition. And then he continued to get better…In 14 starts for the Phoenix last season, Kirby posted a 107-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88.1 innings of work. Seattle snagged the young righty in the opening round, 20th overall, last June and signed him for the exact slot amount ($3,242,900). Kirby made nine brief appearances in the Northwest League during his pro debut, fanning 25 without a walk to go along with a 2.35 ERA.

Scouting Report: My pre-draft analysis:

Fun Fact: Kirby’s ridiculous 17.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio leads all Division I pitchers by a wide margin. Runner up Matt Waldron of Nebraska owns an 11.7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Just how special has Kirby been in 2019? Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2018, only Division I pitchers averaged at least 11 strikeouts and fewer than 1.5 walks per nine innings in a season (min. 75 IP): Casey Mize (twice), David Peterson, Kyle Freeland, Taylor Clarke, and Miller Hogan. Mize, of course, was the top pick in the draft in 2018. Peterson and Freeland were taken with the 20th and 8th overall selections. Clarke was a third rounder in 2015. And Hogan was a sixth round pick by the Rays last season.

Let’s continue…

Only one of those pitches, Mize, fanned at least 11 and walked fewer than a batter per inning – a la Kirby this season.

Kirby attacks hitters with four average or better offerings: his fastball sits comfortably in the low 90s without much effort and may have some additional growth as his lanky frame begins to fill out; his curveball is a tightly spun 12-6 bender; his slider shows cutter-like characteristics; and his changeup flashes plus with tremendous dive and fade. Kirby has the potential to grow into a solid #3-type arm at his peak. One final thought: his changeup, when it’s on, could be among the best in the draft.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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6. Justus Sheffield, LHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 60 65 50 45 50

Background: There are dream seasons in which everything goes better than expected – perfect. Think Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, or Logan White. And there’s the opposite of that: nightmares. Think Justus Sheffield. Passed around more times than expected for a perennial top prospect, Sheffield, who started in Cleveland, moved to New York and then settled in with Seattle last season, simply couldn’t find it. And when he did have one of those moments they were all too fleeting. He begin the year in Class AAA, got promoted up to Seattle for a brief three-inning stint, and then was demoted back Tacoma. And that’s where things took a turn for the worse. Sheffield struggled to get out of the third inning against Salt Lake and then rattled off a stretch in which he allowed 32 earned runs in 34.0 innings. Seattle bumped him back down to the Texas League where things got predictably better. Sheffield finished off the year fairly decent stretch of seven starts back in the big leagues.

Scouting Report: I caught a few of his minor league games in the early and middle parts of the season and his stuff lacked the crisp, late life that it showed in 2018. Two years ago his fastball was up to 98 mph at times and his slider had that hard, fall-off-the-table downward bite consistently. Last season, though, his fastball was 92- to 94-mph and he clearly didn’t have the same feel for his trademark offspeed pitch, one that ranks near the top – or at the top – in the minor leagues. The major league data would back that up as well: his fastball was down 1.5 mph (though he was pitching in relief in his debut in New York). And then there’s his command, which hasn’t developed as expected. The list of MiLB left-handers that own two plus-pitches and a solid third option are far-and-few between. Even if Sheffield doesn’t progress any further he’s going to be a solid #4.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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7. Justin Dunn, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 55 50 55 50 50 50

Background: The second big piece acquired in the mega-swap with the Mets last season. Dunn – quietly – put together his finest season to date in 2019, doing so at the most important minor league level. Originally taken by New York in the opening round, 19th overall, out of Boston College four years ago, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander made a career best 25 starts, throwing 131.2 innings while recording a whopping 159 strikeouts and handing out just 39 free passes to go along with a 3.55 ERA. The former BC Eagle finished his second stint in Class AA with a 4.61 Deserved Runs Average. Dunn also made four brief appearances with Seattle as well, tossing another 6.2 innings with five strikeouts and an incredible nine walks.

Scouting Report: The good news for Dunn – as well as for the Mariners’ long term future – is that the wiry right-hander’s control / command improved significantly last season. He was not only throwing more strikes, but he was throwing better strikes more consistently. The bad news: in all of the games I personal saw Dunn throw, his fastball lacked the added oomph that it picked up the previous season. His fastball, which was consistently touching 95 mph in 2018, settled in around 91 mph last season. And the data from his brief MLB stay backs that up as well; he averaged a smidgeon over 92 mph. The curveball’s average and the changeup improved to a 50-grade as well. The slider is a strong 55. Dunn still looks like a #3/#4-type arm, though he needs to repeat his new found control / command, especially if the fastball is sitting 91-92. With respect to his work in the Texas League last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 27% and 30% with a sub-8.5% walk percentage in any Class AA league (min. 100 IP): Brandon Woodruff, Alex Faedo, Eric Surkamp, and Justin Dunn.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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8. Jake Fraley, OF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50 55 50 50 50 50

Background: It was a deal that was highlighted more about Jerry Dipoto reacquiring Mallex Smith a year after trading him to the Tampa Bay Rays. But Fraley, who was generally panned as a throw-in, secondary-tier minor leaguer quietly turned in one of the most dominant minor league showings in 2019. Taken by the Rays with the last pick in the second round in 2016, Fraley battled a litany of injuries that limited him to just 96 games between 2017 and 2018. And while he topped the 100-game threshold for the first time in his professional career last season, Fraley’s offense more than made up for the absence. He stroked.298/.365/.545 with 27 doubles, five triples, and 19 homeruns while swiping 22 bags in 99 games with Arkansas and Tacoma. And he earned a 12-game cameo with Seattle as well.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 24-year-olds to post a DRC+ of at least 180 with a walk rate between 8.0% and 10% in any Class AA league (min. 250 PA): Kevin Kouzmanoff, Joey Meneses, Ty France, and Jake Fraley. Kouzmanoff was a league average bat during his eight-year big league career. Meneses spent last season playing in Japan. And France appeared in 69 games as a rookie for the Padres last season.

Average or better tools across the board. The question isn’t whether Fraley can be a productive big league player in all facets of the game. He can. The question is whether he can stay in the lineup consistently. Even in Seattle’s cavernous park he’s capable of putting up Mark Canha circa 2018 numbers (.249/.328/.449 with 17 homeruns).

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

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9. Cal Raleigh, C

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45 50 30 50 45+ 45

Background: Raleigh turned in a spectacular freshman season at Florida State University four years ago: he slugged a robust .301/.412/.511 with 16 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns to go along with a nearly 1-for-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But the switch-hitting backstop’s bat failed – miserably – in the Cape Cod League that summer and that lack of production bled over into his sophomore campaign for the Seminoles; he batted a lowly .227/.330/.397 in 69 games. The North Carolina native – and his once potent stick – reemerged from the ashes during his junior campaign, hitting a healthy .326/.447/.583 with career highs in doubles (18) and homeruns (13). Seattle snagged the underrated prospect in the third round two years ago. After a strong pro debut in the Northwest League (.288/.367/.534), Raleigh handled the aggressive promotion up to High Class A with aplomb: he hit .261/.336/.535 with 19 doubles and 22 homeruns. His bat did cool a bit during a late season promotion up to Arkansas. He finished the year with an aggregate .251/.323/.497 line.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old to post a DRC+ of at least 145 with a walk rate between 8.5% and 10.5% and a strikeout rate between 19 and 23% in the California League (min. 300 PA): Chris Shaw, Mac Williamson, and Cal Raleigh.

See a trend? Polished collegiate hitters feasting off of an age-appropriate level of competition. Another pattern: Shaw’s been abysmal in limited action with the Giants and Williamson, a former Giants farmhand, owns a career 74 DRC+ in 160 games. Raleigh’s a 45-bat, 55-power, and slightly below-average work behind the dish. Catching is in dire need of production across the MLB. So Raleigh’s likely going to get more than enough opportunities. There’s some starting caliber potential, but he won’t be a star.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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10. Isaiah Campbell, RHP

FB CB SL SF Command Overall 55 55 55 50 50 45

Background: The epitome of perseverance. Campbell, a broad-shouldered right-hander from Olathe, Kansas, turned in a mediocre campaign at the University of Arkansas during his true freshman season: he posted a 23-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.2 innings spread between the rotation and bullpen. Elbow woes limited Campbell to just one appearance during his sophomore season before he hit the DL. Healthy for the 2018 season, the big Razorback tossed 69.2 innings while fanning 75 and walking 29 walks to go along with a 4.26 ERA. The Angels took a late round flier on Campbell, who bet big on himself and returned to school for his redshirt junior season. And he was all aces. In 17 starts for the SEC squad, Campbell averaged 9.3 strikeouts against just 1.6 walks per nine innings with a 2.26 ERA. Seattle snagged Campbell at the end of the second round last June and signed him for $850,000.

Scouting Report: A little bit of Jon Duplantier in him. Campbell attacks hitters with a solid four-pitch repertoire: a low- to mid-90s fastball; an above-average curveball that rests in the low 80s; a 55-grade slider; and a decent splitter that he uses as a changeup. With respect to his work in college last season, consider the following:

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.