But in the long run, which elite college you attend just isn't all that important. Longitudinal studies show that the success of the country's smartest students depends more on where they apply than where they attend. The country's best schools are all world-class, and the 100,000 new students that they matriculate each year have a relatively equal shot at their own definitions of success.



The bottom line is that college rankings aren't the monster here.They're gnats on the back of a monster. After all, if you pay attention to college rankings, you're already doing something rare. You're caring enough about college to consult a ranking!

That makes you pretty elite, from the start. Thirty percent of 18-year olds don't graduate from high school on time. Of those who graduate, half will drop of out of college. Of those who enroll, only nine percent will start at an institution that admits less than half its applicants. Only three percent will attend a school with an admission rate below one-third. The admissions rate at Harvard is six percent.

There is the US News ranking problem. And there is a college crisis. There's a big difference. Here is the breakdown of 21-year olds in 2009. Sixty percent aren't in college. Twenty percent didn't graduate from high school. One percent is going to the kind of schools that make headlines in rankings.







Graph of 21-year olds according to BLS survey data. BLS;Kevin Carey



WHY COLLEGE STILL MATTERS



Why should we care that people go to college? Because in a world of immense risk, higher education might be the last slamdunk bet. Seven of the ten fastest growing jobs in the next 10 years require a bachelor's degree or higher. Each additional level of education correlates with lower unemployment rates and higher earnings. Employment for workers with Masters, professional, or associates degrees are expected to grow almost twice as fast as the overall job market in the next decade. The benefits of college are quite clear.

But it's not enough to say that college pays off. We need to find ways to make this argument stick in every city, suburb and rural town. To do that, we need three kinds of better information. First, we need better information about students. A student's achievement should be digitized so that high schools and colleges can target those who are most likely to succeed in their programs. Second, we need better information about the college application process. Students and families need to benchmark achievement against a roadmap of success. If a kid needs to take Trigonometry before he turns 16 to be on pace to attend the community college his parents are gunning for, that benchmark should be made clear. Third, we need better information about schools. Applicants need to know where they fit, where their money might go furthest, where debt is worth it, and how much debt they can expect to have when they've graduated.