European allies lamented the United States' absence from Monday's summit at the United Nations headquarters in New York. | John Moore/Getty Images U.N. General Assembly Trump threatens to overshadow U.N. climate push Here’s what to watch at Monday’s summit as governments, businesses and activists gather -- and Trump makes a surprise appearance.

The politics of climate change claim the main U.N. stage Monday in New York with appeals from world leaders (and notable absences) and some new proposals to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.



So who and what are worth watching?


At this one-day climate summit that kicks off the annual U.N. General Assembly, the star attractions are Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Narendra Modi, joined by leaders of 60 countries and dozens of multinationals — as well as Donald Trump, who made an unexpected appearance in the chamber on Monday morning despite previously saying he did not plan to attend. Skipping the event though were the Japanese and Australian prime ministers and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The host, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, says he “told leaders not to come with fancy speeches, but with concrete commitments” that go beyond the 2015 Paris climate pact.

Join our reporters for live coverage of the U.N. General Assembly 9AM on SEPT. 24 for live coverage of the U.N. General Assembly ADD TO GOOGLE CALENDAR

What's the context here?

No one — neither the European nor Asian governments that are here, nor the U.S — is cutting emissions fast enough to address many scientists’ warnings of looming catastrophe in the coming decades. China’s are still rising rapidly.



So will this jamboree just send a lot more hot air into the atmosphere without bringing any meaningful progress on climate change?

Not necessarily. Even before they started, the summit and its 10 days of related official events helped drive a global conversation about climate. Individual countries are expected to announce plans to exceed the nonbinding pledges they made in Paris. Big companies are offering ideas, too. Nestlé is one of the latest to commit to a 2050 target to get to zero carbon emissions, while IKEA, Salesforce and L’Oreal are among the companies making pledges to align with the Paris deal. Big banks and insurers backing climate finance include Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund.

These moves are driven by undeniably growing public anxiety. Recent scientific studies say nations may have as little as 12 years to cut their greenhouse gas emissions sharply enough to allow human civilization to avoid serious harm from rising seas, spreading illness, worsening storms and other effects of a warming planet. More bad news is expected Wednesday when the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports on oceans, following up on its negative assessment on land use in August. Public opinion is spurring politicians and companies to act — or at least look like they’re acting. Ahead of her arrival in New York, Germany’s Merkel on Friday announced a new €50 billion plan.



U.N. Playbook The United Nations General Assembly is the world’s biggest diplomatic platform. Stay up to date with Ryan Heath. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.



But without the U.S. on board, isn’t any climate push hobbled from the start?

Yes and no.

By announcing his decision to pull out of the 2015 Paris climate pact ratified by 185 nations, Trump slowed the diplomatic and policy momentum behind a coordinated global response. At home, citing his claims of harm to the economy, the U.S. president rolled back the Obama administration’s regulations on greenhouse gas limits for cars, trucks and power plants, and pushed the U.S. to burn a lot more coal. He’s the spoiler at the global climate bash in New York this week.

Even so, Trump may be the most important but, he isn’t the only player able to drive the climate policy agenda in the United States. Hundreds of mayors, more than a dozen states and the biggest American philanthropists — including former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and most recently Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos — are throwing their weight behind activist laws, pollution targets and investments. They hope to have an impact beyond the Trump presidency. Companies that operate globally are embracing renewables for business reasons.

But here’s a reality check: For all their sincerity — or, depending where you fall politically, sanctimony — there’s only so much that business or local leaders can do without the backing of the U.S. government.

Don’t expect any change in policy soon. Trump’s climate politics enjoy significant Republican support. Twenty-two GOP senators urged him to leave the Paris accord in May 2017. You do hear some dissenting voices in the party, however. “I wish America were in a leadership position, not watching others from the side,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), then-President Barack Obama’s opponent in the 2012 election, tells POLITICO. He adds: “It reduces the prospect of us being a leader in the world.”

European allies lament the United States' absence. "It really makes the fight against climate change much more difficult and complex," says European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič. "What we have to do here is live by example and to develop the economic narrative that to go green it pays off."



But what are the practical implications of the U.S. approach?

For one thing, there’s a lot less money for the Green Climate Fund, a U.N.-created pot meant to help developing nations adapt to climate change. Obama had promised to pay $3 billion into the fund by 2020; Trump has made no contributions to it.

Some worry the U.S. could lose out financially. A 2016 study from the International Finance Corp. estimated the world will see about $23 trillion in potential climate-related investments in developing countries through 2030. Now, those opportunities may go to China and other countries aggressively pursuing them.

Some politicians in the EU threatened to refuse to engage in trade talks with the U.S. if Trump follows through with his pledge to formally exit the Paris deal next year.



But isn’t the focus on the U.S. misplaced? China is the biggest greenhouse gas polluter now, and regardless of the political optics, the U.S. has done as well as any major developed economy to reduce emissions.

True, China became the largest producer of carbon dioxide in 2006, passing the United States. The Chinese counter that America has done far more damage to the atmosphere during its long reign as an industrial power — about twice as many tons of carbon pollution, according to the historical data. Be that as it may, as China works to catch up economically, Beijing is only promising to peak its carbon output no later than 2030. By then, according to current estimates, its emissions will be 33 to 47 percent above what they were in 2010.

The U.S. record on reductions certainly isn’t anything that climate activists swoon over. Despite an overall downward trend during the past 12 years, the U.S. is nowhere near meeting Obama’s climate targets: The country’s carbon dioxide emissions are 10.4 percent below 2005 levels, making it practically impossible to achieve the Obama administration’s goal of a 17 percent cut by 2020 and 26-28 percent by 2025. The Climate Action Tracker shows that U.S. emissions will probably get only halfway to the Obama goal.



Surely then the Europeans, who are all on board behind Paris, are leading the way on government-mandated emissions reduction?

Well, sorta. Europe is meeting its emissions goals. That’s in large part because the EU has since the 1970s had stagnant population and relatively slow economic growth.

“The bad news is [the goals] weren’t tough enough,” says Mauro Petriccione, the EU’s top climate bureaucrat. And the bloc isn’t coming to Monday’s summit with any pledges of further reductions.

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president-elect, doesn’t have the power to commit the Union to anything new before Nov. 1, and will need the support of EU national leaders and the European Parliament to make any pledges. But her intentions are clear, says Petriccione: cut emissions by up to half by 2030.

For this week, rather than focus on additional emissions cuts, Petriccione insists, it’s more important for the EU to “create a viable model for a modern clean economy” that countries including China, India and the U.S. can eventually copy, because the rest of the world outside Europe is responsible for more than 90 percent of global emissions.



So what does business want from the pols on climate?

Mainly, predictability. Many companies are moving in a greener direction, but that’s a long-term commitment of resources and business strategy. “Markets need full information on climate risks and opportunities,” says Jen Austin of the We Mean Business coalition, along with “clear pricing signals,” a term that can include the kind of carbon tax or fee that for now is off the table politically in the United States.

But business leaders aren’t immune to spinning on climate and not backing it up with action. Of 45 economic sectors assessed by the International Energy Agency, only seven are on track to live up to the Paris agreement’s goals. Those not on track include the electric power, fuel supply and building sectors.



To close up here, what are the odds anyone will remember this summit a year from now?

Fifty-fifty. If China comes to the carbon pricing party this week in New York, that would be a real political turning point. Don’t hold your breath, since Xi is missing from the action. This week is more likely to be remembered as the week that banks, other companies and teenagers took charge of the multilateral climate response — in the absence of united political action — egged on by Europe and small nations.

Kalina Oroschakoff, Matt Daily and Bob King contributed to this report.