New research, October 30 - November 5, 2017

Posted on 10 November 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The graph is from paper #80.

Climate change

1. Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin



"Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983–2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint."

2. Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution



"We determined that the warming trend was inconsistent with the natural variability of the climate system but agreed with climate responses to external forcing as simulated by the models. The anthropogenic and natural signals could be detected and separated from each other in the region for almost all indices, indicating the robustness of the warming signal as well as the attribution of warming to external causes."

3. Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions



"Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties."

4. The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?



"In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century."

5. Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation



"Long-term trends (1948–2011 and 1959–2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations."

6. Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

7. Intensified impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in May on subsequent July Asian inland plateau precipitation since the late 1970s

8. Teleconnection between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and European temperature: diversity and evaluation of the CMIP5 models

9. Possible effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the “upstream” climate over West Asia, North Africa, South Europe and the North Atlantic

10. Impacts of Tropical North Atlantic SST on Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones



11. Extreme multi-basin flooding linked with extra-tropical cyclones



12. Synoptic Characteristics of Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones along the Northeast Coast of the United States



13. Global land surface temperature from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers



14. In situ temperature measurements in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere from 2 decades of IAGOS long-term routine observation



15. Characterizing transient temperature trajectories for assessing the value of achieving alternative temperature targets

16. Characteristics of a partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt. Tomor, Tien Shan, China



17. Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100



18. The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981–2010



19. Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

20. Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet

21. Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica



22. On the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice model biases to atmospheric forcing uncertainties



23. Submesoscale Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions in Marginal Ice Zones



24. Analysis of the airflow at the centre of the upper plateau on the Iberian Peninsula and its link to CO2and CH4 concentrations



25. On the relationship between Atlantic Niño variability and ocean dynamics



26. Response of viticulture-related climatic indices and zoning to historical and future climate conditions in Greece



27. Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Nature, Origins, and Way Forward



28. Discrepancies in the climatology and trends of cloud cover in global and regional climate models for the Mediterranean region



29. Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model



30. Rainfall Characteristics of Recurving Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific



31. Investigation of Changes in Extreme Temperature and Humidity over China through a Dynamical Downscaling Approach



32. Satellite-retrieved direct radiative forcing of aerosols over North-East India and adjoining areas: climatology and impact assessment



33. Attribution and mitigation of heat wave-induced urban heat storage change



34. Increase in the skewness of extratropical vertical velocities with climate warming: fully nonlinear simulations versus moist baroclinic instability



35. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities



36. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961–2012



37. Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble



38. Comparison of the effect of land-sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variations in winter and summer blockings



39. Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter



40. What controls springtime fine dust variability in the western United States? Investigating the 2002-2015 increase in fine dust in the U.S. Southwest



Climate change impacts

41. Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean



"Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability."

42. Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses



"We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises."

43. Observed long-term greening of alpine vegetation—a case study in the French Alps



"The timing of accelerated greening prior to 2000 coincided with a pronounced increase in the amount of snow-free growing degree-days that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. In the case of grasslands and low-shrub habitats, we did not find evidence for a negative effect of grazing on greening trends, possibly due to the low grazing intensity typically found in the study area. We propose that the emergence of a longer and warmer growing season enabled high-elevation plant communities to produce more biomass, and also allowed for plant colonization of habitats previously characterized by long-lasting snow cover."

44. Vulnerability of Coral Reefs to Bioerosion From Land-Based Sources of Pollution



"Our results show that eutrophication of reef seawater by land-based sources of pollution can magnify the effects of OA through nutrient driven-bioerosion. These conditions could contribute to the collapse of coastal coral reef ecosystems sooner than current projections predict based only on ocean acidification."

45. Carbon dioxide and submersed macrophytes in lakes: linking functional ecology to community composition



46. Quantitative losses vs. qualitative stability of ectomycorrhizal community responses to 3 years of experimental summer drought in a beech-spruce forest



47. Assessing species climatic requirements beyond the realized niche: some lessons mainly from tree species distribution modelling



48. Latitude, temperature and habitat complexity predict predation pressure in eelgrass beds across the Northern Hemisphere



49. Glacial melt content of water use in the tropical Andes



50. Criminological Perspectives on Climate Change, Violence and Ecocide



51. Empowerment, climate change adaptation, and agricultural production: evidence from Niger



52. Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability



53. Prioritizing coastal ecosystem stressors in the Northeast United States under increasing climate change



54. Might climate change the “healthy migrant” effect?



55. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam



56. The suitability of Macadamia and Juglans for cultivation in Nepal: an assessment based on spatial probability modelling using climate scenarios and in situ data

57. Impact of climate variability on coffee yield in India—with a micro-level case study using long-term coffee yield data of humid tropical Kerala



58. Warming and top predator loss drive ecosystem multifunctionality



59. Climate mediates the success of migration strategies in a marine predator



60. Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States

61. Vapor-pressure deficit and extreme climatic variables limit tree growth



62. Elevated carbon dioxide and warming impact silicon and phenolic-based defences differently in native and exotic grasses



63. Future riverine inorganic nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea from Sweden: An ensemble approach to assessing climate change effects



Climate change mitigation

64. Household installation of solar panels – Motives and barriers in a 10-year perspective



"Highlights

• Comparison of motives and barriers for installing photovoltaic panels in 2008 and 2014. • Environmental motives have been consistent, financial incentives has been added. • investment cost remained a barrier. • New barriers increased administrative burden and finding information. • Installation has disappeared as a barrier."

65. Evaluating the electricity intensity of evolving water supply mixes: the case of California's water network



"Electricity intensity (kWh m−3) will increase in arid regions of the state due to shifts to alternative water sources such as indirect potable water reuse, desalination, and water transfers. In wetter, typically less populated, regions, reduced water demand for electricity-intensive supplies will decrease the electricity intensity of the water supply mix, though total electricity consumption will increase due to urban population growth."

66. Slowing down the retreat of the Morteratsch glacier, Switzerland, by artificially produced summer snow: a feasibility study



"It takes about 10 years before snow deposition in the higher ablation zone starts to affect the position of the glacier snout. For the case of modest warming, the difference in glacier length between the snow and no-snow experiments becomes 400 to 500 m within two decades."

67. My neighbourhood, my country or my planet? The influence of multiple place attachments and climate change concern on social acceptance of energy infrastructure



68. Bayesian versus politically motivated reasoning in human perception of climate anomalies



69. Quantitative assessment of carbon sequestration reduction induced by disturbances in temperate Eurasian steppe



70. A Climate for Art: Enhancing Scientist-Citizen Collaboration In Bangladesh



71. Why the IPCC should evolve in response to the UNFCCC bottom-up strategy adopted in Paris? An opinion from the French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction



72. Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe



73. The Relationships among Actual Weather Events, Perceived Unusual Weather, Media Use, and Global Warming Belief Certainty in China



74. Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

75. Impact of biofuels on contrail warming



Other papers

76. Spatial-temporal characteristics of aerosol loading over the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2015



"There is no significant AOD trend over most areas of the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2015, while strong decreasing trends are found over most of the middle and lower Yangtze Basin during 2011–2015. These decreasing trends may relate to changes in annual precipitation, wind speed, and air-pollution control policies."

77. North Atlantic influence on Holocene flooding in the southern Greater Caucasus



78. Quantifying the Release of Climate-Active Gases by Large Meteorite Impacts With a Case Study of Chicxulub



79. Is there 1.5-million-year-old ice near Dome C, Antarctica?



80. Reconstructing Northeastern United States temperatures using Atlantic white cedar tree rings



81. Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

