Are you ready for the most compelling AFL finals series ever? I hope so, because it starts tonight, and here’s everything you need to know.

Richmond is the unbackable favourite for this year’s premiership. At some books have crunched the minor premier into the $1.40s, which is three parts a measure of the side’s tactical edge, two parts its home ground advantage, and one part the talent on its list.

They are the unanimous choice of all analytical models – in this space it’s just a question of how confident you think a quantitative analysis should be in predicting the winner of an eight-team tournament.

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So why don’t we just wrap it all up now and save ourselves the trouble? Because the journey to get to that ultimate destination has about as many twists and turns as one may hope to have before us at the beginning of any season.

The West Coast Eagles have killed the Tigers once, and can feel confident in their ability to do it again. Alastair Clarkson has had an extra week to plot Richmond’s downfall in tonight’s qualifying final.

An already injury-hit Collingwood hung with Richmond all day in Round 19 until more injuries struck and the Tigers kicked away in the last. Geelong got even closer.

Then there is the fact Sydney has beaten every team in the top eight bar the Tigers. Oh, and GWS possess perhaps the highest ceiling of the eight remaining sides if they can catch fire. And the Giants have beaten the Tigers too.

The Tigers, directly or indirectly, have to navigate that in three or four games to win the premiership. Richmond might be the overwhelming favourite, but don’t at least one or two of those sentences invite just a skerrick of doubt?

If not, call your financial advisor, have him transfer all your superannuation into a betting account, and load up on Richmond for the flag. After all there aren’t many investments that will return 40 or more per cent in four and a bit weeks.



For the rest of us, why don’t we flesh these introductory remarks out a little. Welcome to the Mega AFL finals preview column for 2018.

But the Tigers are favourites for a reason

Let me be clear at the outset: Richmond are my pick to win this year’s premiership. I just don’t think the case is as rock solid as many others.

Richmond finished two games clear on top of the ladder and had the best percentage in the competition. History suggests teams that leap ahead of the competition by at least two wins do pretty well in converting their minor premiership into a major one: they’re 3-4 in the AFL era, which is pretty close to a coin flip.

That’s not a bad strike rate when you consider all that goes into a September campaign.

The Tigers’ favouritism comes down to those factors listed above: tactics, home field and seasoned talent. Let’s deal with them in reverse order.

For all the Ninthmond jokes, Richmond have jumped up to fifth on the rolling five-year wins leaderboard (currently 2014 to 2018) with 68, and have played in four finals series over that time (only the remarkable Sydney has played in five of five).

Their core has been in place for an extended period of time, and the team is typically the older and more experienced squad on game day each and every week. As we said following last year’s premiership, Richmond as it is presently built resembles a typical premiership team.



Their outstanding players are spread across the field, and can influence the play equally with consistent effort or acts of individual brilliance. Trent Cotchin’s goal against Geelong in last year’s qualifying final makes this case as neatly as any words could.

HAVE YOU EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT | Trent Cotchin BT beside himself as @Richmond_FC scores the 'goal of the game'#AFLFinals ON 7 pic.twitter.com/GD6qvZIeLE — 7AFL (@7AFL) September 8, 2017

Richmond’s stronghold over the MCG was tested late in the season, but it is impossible to argue their VFL-AFL record 21 straight wins is down to chance. However you wish to manifest home ground advantage – the crowd, umpiring, ground familiarity – the Tigers have it.

It is, in part for Richmond at least, an ability to work the ground to its advantage. A lot has been made of the Tigers’ lack of potency around the clinches in 2018: they were dead last by a long way in clearance differential at -5.7 per game. This is by design.

Richmond doesn’t exactly want to concede stoppages, but it doesn’t see them as a necessary means to gain territory and score points.

Instead, it’s all about creating and exploiting turnovers. Richmond’s opponents turned the ball over 82.5 times per game in the 2018 home and away season, around 11 times more frequently than the competition average. Meanwhile, the Tigers only turn the ball over about two times more frequently than the competition average.

The MCG is their most happy hunting ground in this respect: Richmond’s opponents turn the ball over a pretty stunning 84.1 times per game. They do this by managing space and forcing teams to kick to spaces that make it hard to attack, before sweeping the ball up and powering back the other direction. Richmond holds a +12.9 inside 50 differential at the ‘G, which would’ve come close to leading the league if it carried over to their non-MCG outings (+5.6 per game).



A win in tonight’s qualifying final would mean two more MCG wins would see them go back to back. A loss would see them face either Melbourne (hottest team in the league, for reasons we’ll get to shortly) or Geelong (who almost beat them last time out) before a likely trip out to Perth for a preliminary final.

It is fair to say tonight’s game is the most important one of the year for Richmond, and we can expect them to treat it as such.

If you smellllllll what Clarko is cookin’

As a follow up to the above extended take on why Richmond is the deserved premiership favourite, I would like to remind everyone Alastair Clarkson is coaching the team that has the first shot at the current kings of football.

I would also like to draw your attention to this very salient fact. Since the 2011 season, Hawthorn has won 14 of the 18 games it has played with at least a ten-day break in between games. Two of the four losses have come against Geelong by less than a goal where Hawthorn had a shot inside the final minute of the game that missed.

The Hawks could very easily be 16-2 in games played off a ten day break or more in the past eight seasons.

What’s he got cooking? I suspect we will see plenty of ball control and possession-heavy kick-mark football. Hawthorn doesn’t have the quantity of skill players it had during its golden era, but it has enough of them, and a midfield unit that works as hard as any without the ball in hand.



The question mark will be the young defence, as it has been all year, though it has been bolstered significantly by the inclusion of the Jameses Sicily and Frawley.

KPI check in

Earlier in the year I introduced a handful of the purely stats-based KPIs that I keep tabs on throughout the year. They are: attack on the ball (adjusted contested possession differential), possession (time in possession differential) and territory (inside 50 differential).

Together, they reflect the ability of a team to win the ball, hold onto the ball, and put it in a position to score. Some teams are really good at one thing, others are really good at two. In 2018, there is one team that has all three bases covered: Melbourne.

The Dees sit first in both attack on the ball (+14.9 adjusted contested possession differential per game) and territory (+13.4 inside 50s per game), and second in time of possession (+2.8 minutes per game). No other team has more than one metric inside the top two.

But a lot of that is going to come down to beating up on the weaker teams in the competition. What about if we look at these KPIs but limit the incidence to games amongst the current top eight? The results are fascinating.

Attack Territory Possession Richmond 0.8 10.4 0.6 Melbourne 11.6 3.9 -2.8 Geelong 3.7 -4.5 3.0 Hawthorn -7.8 4.2 0.3 Sydney -1.8 -8.0 2.9 Collingwood -2.6 -0.5 -0.4 Greater Western Sydney 6.1 -2.6 -3.9 WCE -9.4 0.1 -1.3

The KPI strength is spread far more evenly across the top eight. Melbourne remains first for attack on the ball, but drop to third for territory and seventh for time in possession.

Richmond jumps up to number one on territory, and sits inside the top half of the ledger for the other two categories. West Coast, who finished second on the ladder, perform the worst on these KPIs when measured against their peers.



The symmetry between Melbourne and Geelong sets the stage for an intriguing match up tomorrow night. Both of their games in 2018 game down to the wire, and this one figures to as well. The loser will feel as though its season was wasted.

Can the Giants ride a player availability wave to another preliminary final?

The GWS Giants limped to the finish line in 2018, injuries wrecking yet another season as the dynastic potential of its team remains frustratingly unfulfilled. A 9-1 streak from the end of May to the middle of August had many believing a top four tilt was suddenly on again.

Consecutive losses to Sydney and Melbourne, where victory would have given the Giants a chance at a top two finish (and certainly a top four finish), gave us all pause for thought.

But then we go back to the injuries. The Giants were crushed on the outside, with Tom Scully and Zac Williams failing to play any meaningful time for them in the home and away season. Nathan Wilson went west. Josh Kelly has only played two thirds of the year. Lachie Whitfield was sent back to give GWS some power off the half back line.

It has hurt the forward group too. Jonathon Patton was in and out of the team as his form ebbed, and then he injured his ACL. Toby Greene has played a third of the season. Jeremy Cameron has had his troubles with injury and discipline. Rory Lobb is a forward-ruckman not a ruckman-forward yet that’s what he’s had to be – and he too has been out of the line up a few times.

Where the Giants have limited excuses is in its core midfield, and on that measure we see GWS have performed very well. The team’s adjusted contested possession differential is second in the league to the rampaging Melbourne, and according to The Roar’s Adrian Polykandrites the Giants have the best scoring differential from clearances in the competition.

But then you look at how their forward half still looks like a piece of terrible abstract art, and their transition between the arcs looks a shadow of what we know it can be, and it makes you wonder whether they’re just making up the numbers.



That would seem to be this team’s destiny. We thought that of the Western Bulldogs in 2016 too, for what it’s worth. The parallel doesn’t stop there. The Giants are set to welcome back a host of players for this weekend’s elimination final against the Sydney Swans, including Williams and Greene.

Whether it’s too little too late remains to be seen but there is little doubt the Giants’ on-paper side will look to be one of its strongest of the season.

Counting against the fairytale (of sorts) is the path the Giants would have to take to win the flag from here. Beating Sydney in Sydney is possible – they’ve done it once before, in 2017 – but after that it will be two away trips to face teams with strong home ground advantages: West Coast or Collingwood in a semi final, and Richmond or Hawthorn in a preliminary final.

And then the Grand Final would be against the Eagles or Pies or Dees or Cats. Yeesh.

Again: we said this about the Dogs not more than 24 months ago. But unlike the Dogs we know what this Giants team is capable of if it can hit its peak at the right time. We’ll know early on against the Swans whether that peak is in reach.

Where to for the Cats?

The team with the most at stake in this finals series is undoubtedly the Geelong Cats. And we should expect it to colour the club’s approach to all four of its finals, should it go all the way.

There is little doubt any rational football observer would see this Geelong team is approaching their half life – if it isn’t already past it. Joel Selwood and Harry Taylor are slowing down precipitously, the kids are still a little ways off producing sustainable football, and just about all of their top end talent that has been on the park is playing great football. It is hard to see a version of this Geelong group that gets much better individually than it is now.



The crash and bash, possession-heavy football that has served the club well since Patrick Dangerfield joined was tested by the faster teams of the competition in 2018. It faces perhaps the fastest team of them all in week one of the finals. The irony of this is two-fold: Geelong beat Melbourne in both of its games in 2018 (both by slim margins, and on both occasions getting absolutely rinsed in general play), and Geelong looks a much better team when allowed to play with a little more freedom and endeavour.

How many times were the Cats required to go fast late in games because they were within striking distance? Six? Seven? Why can’t Geelong play like that for longer stretches? It is confounding.

It is risky, but Chris Scott might have to have his players move into that more daring mode of football early on against the Dees. He will feel confident in the knowledge that their conservative game plan worked well against Melbourne twice in 2018, albeit the games were up for grabs right until the end. This time, the Dees are in strong form and have more or less a full strength side available bar Jesse Hogan and Jake Lever.

It’s an elimination final so the game will be intense, but given the stakes for the Cats I suspect it will reach another level all together. A loss would signal a failed season, and inspire plenty of off season thought from Cats’ management – particularly given they are locked into Scott as their head coach for another few years.

Is this Sydney being Sydney?

I have nothing profound to say about the Sydney Swans. Their season, and elevation to a top six finish, is as confounding as the AFL’s drive to change the rules of the game.

No, really, that’s all I’ve got. Sydney has beaten every team in the top eight bar Richmond, yet has the weakest percentage of the lot, hasn’t been able to win at home consistently, and has a midfield which has looked tin man slow for almost all of the year. It makes no sense.

So what I’m really saying is Sydney will win the premiership. Why? It’s an even year. The Swans have made the grand final in the past three even numbered seasons: 2012, 2014 and 2016. It’s just what they do, apparently. That makes more sense than Sydney’s season.



Pick a winner

I’m on deck for the Saturday night forecast for week one so I will save my remarks on West Coast and Collingwood for then. For now, here are my obligatory finals picks (including some made up awards that should exist and some tangential predictions).

Premier: Richmond

Runner Up: Melbourne

Norm Smith Medal: Jack Riewoldt

Most Finals Goals: Tom McDonald

Best Player in the Finals Series: Trent Cotchin

Most Disappointing Exit: Collingwood in straight sets

Number of Close Games: Two (including the Grand Final)

Number of Players Suspended: Zero

Number of Times Ricky Ponting Will Appear on Channel 7’s Coverage to Promote the Summer of Cricket: 371

Number of Au Pair Jokes Directed at Hamish McLachlan: One

Number of Games Basil Zempilas Will Call: One (sorry Sydneysiders)

What a finals series we’re in for. Best of luck to all the teams, and may the best team (West Coast) win it all.