Sources: Homicide data from INEGI , population data from CONAPO .

2009 estimate based on execution rates

Police records. This data is collected by law enforcement agencies. It is available from two sources:

The National System of Public Security (“Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública”) which collects the data from something called CIEISP forms. Each state law enforcement agency has to fill them out each month, and the SNSP tallies them. You can download the SNSP data from the ICESI , which is a civic institution not affiliated with the government.

(“Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública”) which collects the data from something called forms. Each state law enforcement agency has to fill them out each month, and the tallies them. You can download the data from the , which is a civic institution not affiliated with the government. The Statistical Yearbooks the statistical agency of the Mexican Government publishes each year on its website. The source for the data are the state law enforcement agencies (“Procuraduría General de Justicia del Estado. Dirección General de Información, Estadística e Identificación Criminal”) Even tough they are supposedly collected from the same source, there are important difference between them. Vital Statistics from the INEGI . Produced from death certificates, they include data at the municipality level and the month of death. In addition they include sex, age, marital status, occupation, education, etc.

UN

SNSP

INEGI

Would you trust a Mexican cop?





SNSP

INEGI

SNSP

For most states the differences in homicides rates seem stable





What about the Vital Statistics?





INEGI

III

“trick”

INEGI

INEGI

INEGI

SNSP

INEGI





Were there reasons to intervene in Michoacan?





Since the data for Chihuahua looked awfully fishy, and the Mexican president claimed there was a big increase in violence in Michocan in 2006 as the reason for starting the war, I decided to download the original CIEISP forms for that state from the PFP website (Mexican Federal Police) and compare them with the vital statistics.

Sources: INEGI and CIEISP forms from the andforms from the SNSP (2005, 2006, 2007)

Well, there certainly was a big increase in violence, though as in Chihuahua in 2008, the number of homicides was much lower according to the police data. You can argue about whether sending the army was the right decision, but certainly the federal government had cause for aiding Michoacan. That is, of course, assuming the government of Felipe Calderon trusts the vital statistics and doesn’t trust the SNSP .

Overview of the Cartels





Major Trends in Homicide Rates

INEGI

INEGI

Homicide rates at the state level in 2008

Change in homicide rates since the start of the drug war*

*I got the

idea for this chart from the

Learning R blog

Homicide Rates by State*

The top row consists of states home to drug cartels or in dispute. Notice the big increases at the end of the series

Violence has decreased a lot since 1994 in Oaxaca, Morelos (this will change in 2010), State of Mexico and Michocán.

There was a big increase in the homicide rate in Baja California in 1998 due to the power vacuum left after the death of Amado Carrillo Fuentes.

Notice how the homicide rate was higher in Michoacan in 1994 than in 2006 when the President of Mexico sent in the army.

Notice also the rise and fall of homicide rates in Tamaulipas when the Sinaloa Cartel tried to take over Nuevo Laredo around 2005-2006.

Chiapas wasn’t all that violent back when the Zapatista were in vogue—at least according to the Mexican government

*I got the idea for this chart from the

Junkcharts blog

Homicide at the Municipality Level

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008







US , For comparison purposes, the most violent city in the New Orleans , had179 homicides in 2008 for a rate of about 60 per 100,000.

What about 2009 and 2010?

The war the Sinaloa cartel started to defeat the Juarez cartel kept going in 2009, leaving a total of 2,700 dead in Ciudad Juarez, compared to 1,600 in 2008. In 2010 the number of homicides will probably be similar to 2009 (perhaps a little lower).

At the end of 2009 one of the Beltrán Leyva brothers was killed at a luxury apartment in Cuernava, capital of the state of Morelos. A week later another of the Beltran Leyvas was captured in Sinaloa. This sparked another inter-cartel war as the only remaining Beltran Leyva fought for the leadership of the organization with “La Barbie”

At the beginning of 2010 a hit man allied with the Sinaloa Cartel, “El Teo,” was captured. He was sent to defeat the Tijuana cartel, and is believed to be responsible for over 300 murders. Interestingly, there were no massacres or increases in violence after his capture. This probably means the Sinaloa Cartel overextended itself and is waiting to defeat the Zetas, the Juarez Cartel and the Beltran Leyva organization before resuming its quest for Tijuana. There won’t be a quick ending to the cartel wars.

At least at the beginning of 2010 the murder rates in Mazatlan and Nogales grew to be similar to those of Ciudad Juarez in 2008. The state of Sinaloa in 2010 will probably be about as violent as Chihuahua in 2008

Like Finland in 1944, the Gulf cartel in 2010 saw the writing on the wall and decided to switch sides and ally itself with its former mortal enemy, the Sinaloa Cartel, the guys they stopped in Nuevo Laredo. To prove their worthiness they are now tasked with destroying their former paramilitary unit, the Zetas, with the help of La Familia.

International comparison

WWII

PEMEX

Drugs





US





INEGI Sources : National Survey of Addictions and



US

US

Source: WORLD DRUG REPORT 2009 (p. 220)



Guns don’t kill people, gun laws kill people



(See this post for a more in-depth look at the effect of the expiration of the AWB )



In 2008 Mexican authorities claimed to have seized about 30,000 guns. Of those, 7,200 were submitted for tracing to the ATF . Of those traced, about 90% came from the US . The keyword being traced. This isn’t all guns that were confiscated in Mexico, not even a random sample, but a highly biased one. For example, according to GAO , total percentage of guns come from. Likewise, it would be mistaken to say that only 22% of guns come from the US .



Additionally, one of the problems with trying to obtain an estimate of the lower bound for the percentage of guns that come from the US is that the Mexican government’s estimates of guns seized tend to be all over the place, sometimes it’s 21,000, sometimes it’s 31,000. And as we’ve seen, statistics from police agencies in Mexico aren’t very trustworthy, especially when there are powerful political interest behind them. Guns are a lot easier to disappear than dead bodies. And they have resell value. If asked to give an estimate, and given the pictures of confiscated guns I’ve seen, the percentage of American guns certainly looks to be high and must be between 40% and 70% ( WAG ).



According to The Brookings Institution US , but that figure doesn’t seem right to me. According to BAFT 4.37 million firearms are produced each year, if 2,000 weapons crossed the border each year, that would mean the equivalent of 17% of firearms produced in the US were smuggled into Mexico each year, that sounds a tad high to me. Maybe the guys at Brookings asked their in-house weapons expert



Furthermore, considering that you can’t buy US .



And if you look carefully, you will notice that the violence started to grow a couple of years before I took office in 2006. This coincides with the lifting of the Assault Weapons Ban in 2004.

Felipe Calderón, President of Mexico, Speaking before Congress In 2008 Mexican authorities claimed to have seized about 30,000 guns. Of those, 7,200 were submitted for tracing to the. Of those traced, about 90% came from the. The keyword being traced. This isn’t all guns that were confiscated in Mexico, not even a random sample, but a highly biased one. For example, according to 25% percent of traced guns were assault weapons, while according to the Mexican government 50% of seized guns were assault weapons. So it would be mistaken to draw inferences about where theof guns come from. Likewise, it would be mistaken to say that only 22% of guns come from theAdditionally, one of the problems with trying to obtain an estimate of the lower bound for the percentage of guns that come from theis that the Mexican government’s estimates of guns seized tend to be all over the place, sometimes it’s 21,000, sometimes it’s 31,000. And as we’ve seen, statistics from police agencies in Mexico aren’t very trustworthy, especially when there are powerful political interest behind them. Guns are a lot easier to disappear than dead bodies. And they have resell value. If asked to give an estimate, and given the pictures of confiscated guns I’ve seen, the percentage of American guns certainly looks to be high and must be between 40% and 70% ().According to The Brookings Institution about 2000 guns (p. 34) are smuggled daily into Mexico from the, but that figure doesn’t seem right to me. According tocrossed the border each year, that would mean the equivalent of 17% of firearms produced in thewere smuggled into Mexico each year, that sounds a tad high to me. Maybe the guys at Brookings asked their in-house weapons expert Kenneth Pollack his opinion?Furthermore, considering that you can’t buy RPG -7 s at your local Walmart and that more than 5,400 grenades have been seized from the cartels, it’s pretty clear they have other suppliers , quite obvious considering the source of the cocaine they smugle into the

Sources : The execution rate after 2006 is based on the average of reported executions by Milenio and Reforma