Dan Wolken | USA TODAY

USA TODAY

This isn’t a theory anymore. It’s not an empty threat from a U.S. Attorney or a grandiose promise from some stuffed shirt in Indianapolis.

Two years after an FBI investigation cracked the door open on how college basketball really works and tons of skepticism about whether the NCAA would truly go after the sport's big names, the first real hammer dropped Monday. In no uncertain terms, they have called Kansas coach Bill Self a cheater.

The Notice of Allegations that was sent to Kansas isn’t a 20-page document as much as it is a showdown. Kansas and Self are going to fight it, of course, because there’s really no other choice. They’re going to put the NCAA’s credibility on trial in the court of public opinion and say there’s no real evidence linking their Hall of Fame coach to the underground machinations of an Adidas bagman who was using cash to recruit basketball players to Kansas.

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But make no mistake about what is happening right now: The NCAA wants Self out of college basketball, and it is firing directly at him with all the power it's got.

Had NCAA investigators chosen to go after Self merely for looking the other way or not properly monitoring his program, he could feel a little more secure about his future in college basketball. Plenty of coaches have been popped on that technicality, served their time in the penalty box and returned to normal operation.

But the allegations against Self go much further, implicating him both directly and tacitly in the corruption that was carried out by T.J. Gassnola, a “consultant” in the Adidas grassroots basketball system who admitted in federal court that he made payments to the families of several high-profile recruits, including two who ended up at Kansas.

The bottom line to all of it is this: Over and over in the Notice of Allegations, the NCAA accuses Self and Kansas assistant Kurtis Townsend of not only knowing that Gassnola and others at Adidas were working to recruit players to Kansas but that they welcomed the help and, in some cases, actively encouraged it.

The technical sticking point Kansas will dispute is the NCAA classifying Adidas and consultants like Gassnola as Kansas boosters, which automatically turns interactions that might have seemed normal into violations.

But ultimately, text messages between Self, Townsend and Gassnola that were entered into evidence in the federal trial could doom him. In August of 2017, shortly after Kansas and Adidas agreed to an extension of their apparel contract, Gassnola texted the following to Self: “In my mind it’s KU bill self. Everyone else fall into line , to (expletive) bad, that’s what’s right for adidas Basketball. And I know Iam RIGHT. The more you win, have lottery pics. And you happy

That’s how it should work in my mind.”

Self responded: “That’s how ur (sic) works. At unc and Duke”

Gassnola: “Kentucky as well”

Gassnola: “I promise you. I got this , I have never let you down Except (Dyondre) lol"

The “Dyondre” he was talking about, of course, is DeAndre Ayton, who ended up at Arizona but had also been on Gassnola’s payroll. If those text messages don’t paint a pretty clear picture of Gassnola as a Kansas booster — by whatever definition you want to use — then he was sure putting up a good front.

The way the NCAA enforcement staff connects the relationship between Self and Gassnola to illicit recruiting is both direct and damning. That’s why Self punched back so hard Monday night, essentially accusing the NCAA of overreach to make a point at his expense.

“Compelled to reassure member institutions and the general public that it can police its member institutions, the NCAA enforcement staff has responded in an unnecessarily aggressive manner in submitting today’s unsubstantiated Notice of Allegations, and I, as well as the University, will vigorously dispute what has been alleged,” Self wrote. “In its haste and attempt to regain control, the enforcement staff has created a false narrative regarding me and our basketball program. The narrative is based on innuendo, half-truths, misimpressions and mischaracterizations.”

But as Self surely knows, in the NCAA’s kangaroo court, he is not innocent until proven guilty. Instead, what’s contained in the Notice of Allegations already makes him guilty. Now, it’s up to Self to prove that he doesn’t deserve the massive and perhaps career-ending punishment that the NCAA could throw his way.

Self will almost certainly coach Kansas this season because he is too successful and too well-supported to be cut loose before anyone’s hand is forced. But the weight of what the NCAA has alleged is going to hang heavy over Lawrence because for all the written defiance on Monday, Kansas knows what’s coming.

Even if the FBI fell short of completely exposing college basketball for the cesspool that it is, the NCAA couldn’t take a pass on this. The NCAA had to hit a big name and hit them hard, and now it has its chance.

When Gassnola early demonstrated over and over again how hard he was working to help the great Bill Self get lottery picks to Lawrence, the NCAA had the only smoking gun it needed. And in some ways, it’s the perfect one to capture the essence of the sport — a legendary, $7 million a year coach and a shoe company fixer sucking up to each other in text messages largely out of paranoia that their competition was doing the same.

It’s easy enough to look at these slimy college basketball coaches, the greedy shoe companies and the hypocritical NCAA and wish for a plague on all their houses. But someone has to be made an example of to keep the amateurism con going. It appears that burden is going to fall directly on Self’s neck.

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