Eric D. Lawrence

Detroit Free Press

Supporters of public transportation might take heart from the results of a new survey on the chances of a regional transit millage passing in southeast Michigan in November.

With a little more than a month until the election, the percentage of registered voters in a MIRS News/Target Insyght survey released today who would vote yes based on what they already knew about the proposal was 49.2%, but that number increased to 51.6% after the voters were given the actual ballot language. The number of those voting no also increases, from almost 33.6% to 35.9%. But the number of undecided voters drops from 17.2% to 12.5.

Edward Sarpolus, Target Insyght’s founder, said that with initial results so close to 50% and with the number of yes votes increasing after potential voters are given more information, millage supporters have an opportunity for success as long as they continue their education efforts such as community forums.

“There is movement with education … (voters’) fears are lessened,” Sarpolus said.

► Related: RTA millage supporters get out the vote in Ferndale

The automated phone survey of 587 registered voters in Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne counties was conducted Sept. 20-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%. If the RTA measure passes, the 1.2-mill, 20-year property tax would cost the owner of a home assessed at $78,856 – the average in Southeast Michigan – about $95 per year. It would fund expanded local bus service, new commuter routes, bus rapid transit, airport service and additional paratransit services as well as commuter rail between Ann Arbor and Detroit.

The measure will require support from a majority of the total number of voters in the four-county region.

RTA Deputy Chief Executive Officer Tiffany Gunter cheered the results.

“It’s great news, and we’re excited and it even energizes us further knowing that the region recognizes the need for transit,” she said, noting that “we will continue to educate up until the last day” before the election.

Support varied, however, across the region.

Prior to getting the ballot language, Oakland and Washtenaw counties (57% and 58%, respectively) registered the highest number of yes answers, and Wayne and Macomb counties (26% and 20%, respectively) had the highest number of undecided voters. After the ballot language was provided, Macomb County’s numbers saw a dramatic shift with the undecided vote dropping to 12% and the yes vote jumping from 44% to 56%.

Kelly Rossman-McKinney, a spokeswoman for the advocacy group Citizens for Connecting our Communities, was critical of the methodology, noting that it “wildly oversampled Oakland County and wildly under-sampled Wayne County.” For instance, the numbers show more Oakland County respondents (220) than Wayne County respondents (187).

“Citizens for Connecting our Communities is confident the voters in Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne counties will vote yes and support the need for regional public transit that connects the communities in southeast Michigan to connect people to jobs, provide greater independence for people with disabilities and help senior citizens to visit their doctors, family and run errands like going to the grocery store,” said Rossman-McKinney, who is chief executive officer of the public relations firm of Truscott Rossman.

More people who identified as Democrats (279) than Republicans (219) or independents (89) participated in the survey, and more women (320) participated than men (267). Support was strongest among women, Democrats and voters ages 18-34.

Sarpolus said in his release that strong voter turnout by Democrats and young voters “could be a key demographic to victory at the ballot,” and that the initial test shows a need “for continued and grassroots education in Macomb and Wayne” counties.

Contact Eric D. Lawrence: elawrence@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter: @_ericdlawrence.