Plurality Approve of Fed Response to Saudi Arabia

Half concerned about the dispute’s effect on Canada

Toronto, August 13th, 2018 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1777 Canadian voters, more than 4 in 10 (TOP2: 44%) say they approve of the Federal Government’s response to the dispute with Saudi Arabia, with a quarter (22%) saying they approve strongly.

Respondents most likely to approve (TOP2) include, those aged 35 to 44 (55%), females (47%), those earning $60,000 to $80,000 (63%), with a post-graduate degree (51%), and those living in Atlantic Canada (52%), Quebec (51%), and British Columbia (50%).

Respondents supporting the progressive spectrum of political parties are far likelier than the average to approve of the Federal response with almost two-thirds of Liberal (TOP2: 63%) and Green (TOP2: 62%), and more than half (55%) of NDP supporters approving.

Fewer than a third (BTM2: 29%) say they disapprove of the Federal Government’s response to Saudi Arabia, with one-fifth (21%) saying they disapprove strongly.

Respondents most likely to disapprove (BTM2) include those aged 45 to 54 (41%), males (33%), those earning $80,000 to 10,000 (36%) and the least wealthy (33%), respondents with some college or university education (34%), with a post-graduate degree (31%), Albertans (55%), and supporting the Conservatives (55%).

A confident awareness of the crisis

A majority of respondents (TOP2: 59%) say that they can describe the current dispute between Canada and Saudi Arabia. Respondents who can describe the conflict include those aged 35 to 44 (66%), males (68%), the wealthiest (79%), with a post-graduate degree (73%), and Albertans (73%), and supporting the Liberals (68%).

A majority of respondents who can “confidently” describe the current dispute (92%) approve of the Federal Government’s response to the dispute with Saudi Arabia.

Respondents who cannot describe the current dispute between Canada and Saudi Arabia (BTM2: 41%) include those aged 34 and younger (46%), females (50%), the least wealthy (76%), those with secondary school or less (59%), those living in Atlantic Canada (55%), and those voting Green (51%) and Bloc Québécois (51%).

Majority concerned about the effect of the dispute on Canada

More than half (TOP2: 54%) say they are concerned with the dispute’s effect on Canada. Respondents who are concerned include those aged 45 to 54 (64%), and those aged 55 to 64 (63%), those earning $40,000 to $60,000 (66%), those with some college and university education (68%), Ontarians (65%), and Conservatives (66%).

Those that are not concerned with the dispute’s effect on Canada include those aged 35 to 44 (55%), the least wealthy (62%), those with college or university degrees (49%) and post-graduate degrees (51%), those living in Quebec (64%), and those voting Bloc Québécois (68%).

A Conservative Summer

The PC has maintained its lead over the other parties throughout the summer. Four in ten Canadian voters would vote Conservative (42%). About one-third would vote Liberal (36%) and one-sixth would vote NDP (15%).

Respondents who identify with the Conservative Party include those aged 35 to 44 (44%) and those 65 and over (44%), males (50%), the wealthiest (51%) and those earning $80,000 to $100,000 (48%), and Albertans (79%).

Respondents who identify with the Liberal Party include those aged 55 to 64 (45%), females (40%), those earning $20,000 to $40,000 (39%) and the least wealthy (39%), with a post-graduate degree (48%), and living in Québec (53%).

Respondents who identify with the NDP include the 34 and younger (28%), females (19%), those earning $60,000 to $80,000 (24%), and British Columbians (22%).

Trudeau Approval Up, Disapproval Down

4 in 10 respondents approve of Justin Trudeau (41%) and 4 in 10 respondents disapprove (48%). 1 in 10 say they do not know (9%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -7.

Justin Trudeau’s approval rating grew from May 22nd, 2018. His net favourable score was -21 in May, the change in the score largely due to an increase in approval.

Andrew Scheer sees approval from a quarter (25%) and disapproval from a third (30%). Almost a fourth of respondents say they do not know (37%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -5. Scheer’s approval has remained virtually the same since May 22nd (net favourable score of -3).

Jagmeet Singh sees approval from a quarter (24%) and disapproval from a third (34%). A further third say they do not know (34%). His sent favourable score is -10. Singh’s approval has remained the same since May 22nd where he saw a net favourable score of -8.

“The Prime Minister’s stance on Saudi Arabia sees approval from Canada’s progressive parties, with big numbers of Liberal, NDP, and Green voters approving,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. “These are exactly the kinds of voters Justin Trudeau will need in the face of a strengthening Conservative party under Andrew Scheer.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.