The Democratic caucuses in Iowa are less than two weeks away. Time for the Washington media to panic.



Last week saw three major polls — by The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics, The Wall Street Journal/NBC News and The New York Times/CBS News — that showed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders closing the gap with former first lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In all three the former long shot Sanders, who describes himself as a socialist, came within the margin of error of Clinton’s numbers. The inconceivable was conceivable. Cue the freakout.



The Washington Post: “Clinton’s lead is evaporating, and anxious Democrats see 2008 all over again.” Vox: “Bernie Sanders is on the rise in Iowa — and it looks like he could win there.” The Atlantic: “What if Bernie Sanders is the Democrats’ best bet?” Washington Free Beacon: “MSNBC: ‘Panic time’ for Hillary Clinton and Democratic establishment.” And my favorite, from the Huffington Post: “Bernie Sanders is now the ‘inevitable’ Democratic nominee and presidential winner.”



What’s happening, and why?



A few points of caution are in order. First, while it’s true that Sanders is closing in on Clinton, that doesn’t mean her lead has suddenly evaporated. Clinton’s lead has been flat for some time because she is the Democratic front-runner. This is what happens to front-runners. Eventually, they stall.



Second, these polls can be shocking only to someone who never thought Sanders had the power to energize a populist Democratic base — in other words, someone who hasn’t been outside Washington much.



Third, these are individual polls. A better indicator is the average of all the polls. Journalist Nate Silver, who accurately predicted how all 50 states would vote in the 2012 presidential election, using polling averages, says there’s a 66 percent chance that Clinton will win the Iowa caucuses. That figure goes to 82 percent when he includes his signature forecast.



Another quality aggregator is RealClearPolitics. On Jan. 12, its averages showed Sanders and Clinton dead even, at 45.5 percent each. As of this writing, they are at 47 and 43, with Sanders sharply falling and Clinton sharply rising. The front-runner’s numbers naturally tend to stagnate, but her supporters will rally if it becomes clear that the underdog poses a real threat. And he does.