Intensifying Calif. drought sets off alarms

Doyle Rice | USA TODAY

As California's epic drought continues with no end in sight, it is setting off new alarms about unprecedented water shortages, increased wildfire threats, fewer crops and farmers, higher electric bills and huge economic losses for years — or even decades — to come.

"Even if normal precipitation begins to fall, it will take a few years to overcome the massive deficits we've been running," said scientist Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute, a research organization in Oakland.

California and much of the West must cope with the consequences of a drought predicted to intensify in coming months. The negative impact is sure to deepen. Scientists predict megadroughts will set in by mid-century.

"It often seems impossible to imagine, but tap water shortages are a distinct possibility if mitigation efforts aren't embraced and droughts become more frequent and intense in the coming years," said meteorologist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield, a global reinsurance firm.

California has about one year of water left in its reservoirs, and mandatory rationing should begin now, NASA scientist Jay Famiglietti said last week, the Associated Press reported.

The possible shortage of tap water is leading to myriad propositions, from the treatment and reuse of wastewater and stormwater to the desalination of the Pacific Ocean, an extremely expensive solution already underway in San Diego while proposals are considered in cities throughout the state.

"For agriculture, desalination is so far out of the range of cost that no one really even thinks about it. But over time, we will see more and more desalination in those places with no other options, as we see in many Middle East and Gulf state countries," Gleick said.

As officials decide what routes to pursue, at the heart of the overall water shortage issue are lax state and local plans that merely draw on water reserves instead of placing harsher restrictions on wasteful use, Gleick said.

"All bets are off on water policy" if the drought goes on for five, 10 or 20 years, he said. "In the end, we have no choice but to bring supply and demand back into balance, and the options for new supply are very limited. We've reached 'peak water' in most western watersheds, and there's no more water to be had."

The dollar signs are adding up. "The western U.S. has been on an epic five-year run of drought and heat-related economic losses, with overall estimates nearing $60 billion in losses since 2010," Bowen said.

The impact on California alone is upward of $5 billion and will continue to grow, costing billions more if the drought extends for more than another year, he said.

Though the current loss is a small fraction of the state's overall economy, "it would be inappropriate to downplay the seriousness that the drought continues to be for California and the rest of the West," Bowen said.

Not helping at the moment is the greatly reduced mountain snowpack that typically provides about a third of the water needed by California residents, agriculture and industry, all of which have been hard hit.

"There will be challenges in managing the multiple uses of water in the state, as well as navigating areas where supply may be critically low," said Michael Anderson, California's state climatologist.

That creates a tough situation for California's roughly 400,000 farmers and farmworkers, who saw an estimated $2.2 billion in agricultural losses and the elimination of 17,000 farming jobs in 2014, according to a study from the University of California-Davis. Such costs will grow as the drought drags on in California, which grows nearly half of the nation's fruits, vegetables and nuts.

"We may see more land left unplanted as producers concentrate their water resources to maintain what they can," said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb. "The cattle industry will be impacted as grazing and forage for animals becomes harder to find."

Agricultural workers are likely to face increased unemployment as water supplies are cut, greatly impacting businesses that depend on the farms, said Mike Wade, executive director of the California Farm Water Coalition. "I expect the situation to be much the same as it was last year," he said.

"These job losses are due exclusively to water shortages and are additive to the unemployment already affecting many rural communities, with some areas experiencing unemployment rates of 24% to 40%," Wade said.

California residents — 38 million in the nation's most populous state — aren't being spared. Already used to water shortage issues for years, they're likely to see increased conservation efforts. State regulators on Tuesday extended and expanded water restrictions that have been in place since July. If the state sees another summer of record heat, electrical systems could be strained — leading to higher bills.

Pumping groundwater as backup could help with the shortages, but that method has limitations.

"If we include the gross overpumping of groundwater, it may take decades to rebuild groundwater reserves, and in some places, it will be impossible because of land subsidence that has destroyed the aquifers," Gleick said.

The snowpack — which could set a record low for the past 25 years in the Sierra Nevada — is creating another hazard: the increased risk of wildfires in California and throughout the West.

California fires have charred more than 3,200 acres — more than four times the average — in the first two and a half months of this year, according to Ken Pimlott, director of California's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, the state fire agency. The destruction comes well before fire season peaks in the state, usually from July to September.

"The lack of snow means more exposed fuel load that can dry out, given the warm temperatures that have been commonplace for so many this winter," said Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the drought mitigation center.

In 2014, California had its warmest year on record, and it just had its warmest winter on record, too.

"The longevity of this multi-year drought, coupled with the persistent elevated temperatures, have stretched the 'fire season' into a year-round concern across most of the region," he said.