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“GDP numbers are usually market movers, but this one is special,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets. “A negative number, and people will start whispering the R word while aggressively pricing in another rate cut by the Bank of Canada. And while the market expects a better number, there is little conviction behind that consensus.”

The R word, of course, is recession (defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction). A crash in oil prices and severe winter weather has already caused one quarterly contraction this year, with the Canadian economy shrinking by 0.6 per cent from January to February.

“How did we reach a point in which we are one number removed from the unthinkable?” Tal asks.

Canada’s last recession lasted for seven months, from November 2008 to April 2009. But the economy has seen one other instance of isolated, quarterly contraction since then — in 2011, when GDP shrank by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter.

The Bank of Canada is nevertheless optimistic that the second quarter will see a strong economic rebound, boosted by a weaker Canadian dollar, firmer oil prices and the ongoing expansion in the United States.

Some economists, however, have accused the central bank of being too rosy with its outlook.

“We think the oil price decline is a permanent shock that will take Canada time to adjust to,” said Dana Peterson, Canada economist with Citigroup. “Risks are largely tilted to the downside. Recession is not our base-case, but the likelihood of another interest rate cut before year end is increasing, in our view.”

The majority of economists polled by Bloomberg this month expect the bank to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent this year, while a third see one more rate cut to 0.50 per cent.

The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement will be on July 15, though most economists say that if another cut is coming this year, it is unlikely to be made then, given the negative market reaction from the surprise rate cut in January.

Either way, expect the financial community to be nervously watching the GDP reading Tuesday when it comes out at 8:30 a.m. EST.