Originally appeared at Business New Europe

When seeking extra subsidies or funding from Russia, the way to secure the best deal is to leverage your improved standing with the European Union (EU) and the bloc's interest in cementing you in its political orbit. This simple pattern will no doubt be used by the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko after his virtually certain re-election on October 11, after which the EU may lift sanctions against him and his entourage.

European diplomats and officials in Brussels have indicated that the EU is ready to perform a volte-face in its policy towards Lukashenko's government after the polls, which should install him for his fifth five-year term. In particular, the Union is preparing to suspend travel bans and asset freezing against the president and many of his officials, which were previously imposed as a response to human rights violations.

Even more importantly, Brussels is looking to lift sanctions against most of the two dozen Belarussian companies currently blacklisted. Ending other curbs that block Belarus from the EU’s capital markets, export credit insurance and technical assistance could also be considered. According to European officials, this approach could demonstrate to Minsk that Russia is no longer the only source of finance for Belarus, Reuters reported in September.

The EU's policy change was mainly triggered by the fact that Lukashenko pardoned six jailed opposition activists, including Nikolai Statkevich, a 59-year-old former military officer who was sentenced to six years in 2011 after running for the presidency in late 2010. Statkevich was accused by the Belarusian authorities of plotting to riot on election night and found guilty by a local court soon after, in a move the West condemned as outright political repression.

In order for the sanctions to be lifted for what is expected to be a trial period of a few months, the conclusions of Western election observers will be critically important, above all those of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). The day after the elections, the organisation will issue its preliminary conclusions. For now though, it seem Brussels will accept even a 'moderate' improvement in the electoral process.