Job growth slowed to a crawl in November, with private payrolls increasing by just 67,000, according to an estimate Wednesday from ADP and Moody's Analytics. The count was well below the 150,000 consensus from economists surveyed by Dow Jones and the lowest month since May. The big miss could call into question the relatively rosy estimates for Friday's closely watched nonfarm payrolls report from the Labor Department, with the current forecast of 187,000 boosted by the return of striking GM workers. November's tally also was a sharp decline from the 121,000 in October, which was revised down from an initially reported 125,000. "The job market is losing its shine," Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, said in a statement. "Manufacturers, commodity producers, and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining, and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase."

Trade war taking toll

Zandi added that impacts from the tariffs between the U.S. and China are being felt in the employment picture. Weakness in manufacturing as well as resources and commodities industries can be tied to the exchange of hundreds of billions in duties that both sides have levied, with more possible later this month as negotiations drag on. "The slowdown is more significant than I would have thought, and I do think that goes to the trade war," he said in a subsequent media conference call. "The trade war is doing damage to the economy and the jobs market." Goods-producing industries lost 18,000 jobs for the month. The decline came amid an even split from natural resources/mining, construction, and manufacturing. Trade, transportation and utilities, a sector that often leads job creation, saw a 15,000 loss, while information services also declined by 8,000. Small businesses also had a poor month, as firms with fewer than 20 employees saw a drop of 15,000 workers. "One bad month is not a trend, but the forward-looking surveys signal no relief over the next couple of months, at least," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note. "This is not about supply-side constraints, with firms unable to find all the people they want; labor demand clearly has weakened as the trade war has dampened activity, both directly via the cost of the tariffs and indirectly by creating great uncertainty for businesses."