The Carolina Panthers’ much maligned offensive coordinator, Mike Shula, has been the most common whipping boy when the Panthers offense struggles. When considering Shula’s success and lack thereof, it seemed as though the Panthers were one of the better opening teams but struggled to finish offensively. I decided to delve deeper into this theory, and what I found was quite interesting.

Our very own film junkies, Canadian Panther and Billy Marshall, seem to be fans of Shula’s scheme overall and cite his situational play calling as his downfall as opposed to play design. Since most teams script their first 15 plays or so, I decided to compare the scripted play success to the success when Shula is ad-libbing. I used Pro Football Reference’s Drive Finder to compare Carolina’s first two drives (about 15 plays, on average) to the rest of their drives. I also excluded drives that ended the half or game, as they would skew the numbers. Let’s take a look at the average numbers per drive.

Staying on Script (first two drives)

First in Time Of Possession (3:58, 20 seconds higher than second place Atlanta)

First in number of plays (7.6)

Sixth in yards gained (36.6)

Tied for third in score percentage (50%)

Seventh in lowest punt percentage (40%)

While following Shula’s scripted plays, the Panthers are easily one of the better offenses in the league. Ron Rivera and Mike Shula like to have long, drawn out scoring drives that eat up the clock and Shula is literally the best in the league this year at doing just that in the first two offensive drives. The league average for scoring percentage is 35%, while the Panthers put points on the board 50% of the time. Scoring on half their possessions in these scenarios puts them behind offensive geniuses Sean McVay and Andy Reid. That’s it. Mike Shula is able to script plays on par with the best offensive minds in the game. We cut Cam a lot of slack for his lack of weapons, but if we take that into account for Shula as well, it’s clear he is fantastic at designing an offense. So what’s the issue?

Improv (after the first two drives)

Seventh in TOP (2:46)

Fifteenth in number of plays (5.8)

Sixteenth in yards gained (30)

Eleventh in score percentage (40.3%)

Fifteenth in lowest punt percentage (41.9%)

Ah, there’s the Mike Shula offense we all know and love. While still chewing up clock at a pretty good rate, the success rate of drives spikes dramatically once Shula has to go off script and make adjustments. If the Panthers score well in the first two drives, that usually means they are nursing a lead with the rest of their possessions. Dropping all the way out of the top ten in scoring percentage does not help sustain leads. Based off these numbers, it’s clear that Shula’s situational play calling is average at best. But here’s the thing: head coaches don’t normally handle play calling duties.

Why Mike Shula would be a good head coach

It is very clear that Mike Shula is an offensive genius that struggles with situational play calling and making adjustments. It’s like that one kid in school who was a straight A student but failed the SAT because he was a bad test taker. If the right team hired him and he brought along an offensive coordinator with a similar philosophy, they could make one of the more dangerous offensive schemes in the NFL. The only caveat would be that the OC would have to handle play calling duties. Much akin to Andy Reid in Kansas City, the offense would perform better if Shula focused on being the head coach while the offensive coordinator focused on coordinating the offense on Sundays. Shula would be a fantastic offensive assistant and, even though he’s an average at best offensive coordinator, he could also be a successful head coach in the NFL.