Summary:

For “The Fillet” of the evening, we have all the makings of an entertaining & high scoring Heavy Weight showdown. KO artist Roy Nelson, takes on the returning legend Josh Barnett. Although his last fight was 21 months ago, Barnett has stayed active in grappling competitions and looks to be coming into this camp/fight in good shape. Both men implement fairly consistent game plans with Barnett “having more ways to work” given his skill set. On the feet, neither man circles outside as much as they like to engage. Though Barnett has more tools in regards to a kicking variety with punches, he doesn’t necessarily manage distance intelligently(especially on entries). This is an important key to anyone standing with Roy, being that inside said distance is where he makes his money. With a limited reach & arsenal, Roy Nelson employs a “Take-one to give-one” style in which he’ll feint his way into the pocket, and lean his head forward & low making his opponents uncertain to pop-shot or defend space. At which point Roy will look to come high and over the top with his big right hand.

Barnett shows to have similar defensive liabilities in his game, as he shows a tendency to leave his head a float when pocket transitioning to the clinch. If you believe Roy Nelson will emerge victorious in this contest, Then I can almost guarantee you it will happen in that specific space. However, once Barnett establishes the clinch, he will immediately look to overwhelm. Though it is important to note that Barnett has 2 specific clinches: When clinching in the open, Josh will look to secure a right under hook to open up “Dirty Boxing” and knees. In doing this however, he leaves himself exposed to opponents right handed attacks and has historically taken damage here. For obvious reasons Josh should avoid that option and continue forward(literally) with his second option of forward pressure to the cage clinch. From here, Barnett keeps a much tighter head position to his opponent and can control/unload damage.

It’s a safe bet that from here Josh should be able to wear down Nelson in route to victory. But 5 rounds is a long time for both men, so I see Josh eventually getting Roy grounded. Barnett has a good variety of clinch based leg trip TD’s that can be effective in disrupting Roy’s architecture. Given Josh’s Catch Wrestling style and Nelson’s body type/tendencies, I can see Josh “cooking” and eventually catching Roy via “Arm Triangle” for his first submission loss, but this is MMA.

Official Pick: Barnett – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Barnett – Unanimous Decision