As spring training action gets underway, the battles for the spots on the fringes of the major league rosters will be dominating the non-best-shape-of-his-life headlines for the foreseeable future. One of the primary debates for Rockies fans will revolve around who will be occupying the bottom of the rotation. There are many advocates for slotting in top prospects Eddie Butler or Jon Gray into the starting rotation, but I have seven reasons why these two should remain in Triple-A Albuquerque for most, if not all, of this season. These reasons range from practical concerns that apply to most prospects to the lessons learned from previous mistakes in the franchise. In short, No matter how good they are, neither should be the first guy up. And the first reason comes down to…

1. Mid-Market Madness (Service Time Concerns)

Whenever we talk about top prospects anymore we have to talk about service time constraints. For a detailed explanation about service time, check out this Fangraphs Sabermetrics Library piece but, as a summary, a team retains control of a player until he has amassed 6 years of service on the major league roster. The major league season lasts 183 days, though one year of service is equal to 172 days. If a player ends the season with 171 days of service or less, the team maintains control of his contract for a seventh (or “extra”) year. This is what happened with Nolan Arenado in 2013, when he didn’t debut until late April. So, despite playing almost 2 full years in the majors, Nolan will remain a Rockie until the end of 2019, thus giving the Rockies 7 seasons of service. This delays the inevitable cash out Nolan’s agent, Scott Boras, will be only too happy to see.

How does this apply to the pitchers in question? Jon Gray has no major league service time yet, so for him it’s simple: keep him down in Albuquerque for a month and he won’t be able to earn enough service time and so the Rockies would be able to maintain team control through the 2020 season. Eddie Butler‘s case, however, is a bit more complicated. He has already amassed 57 days of service time, thanks to his lengthy stay on the disabled list last year (2014 Rockies injuries, the gift that keeps on giving). Because of this, if the Rockies want to keep the potential 1-2 punch of Gray and Butler together through 2020, they will have to give him Triple-A seasoning for about 2 months before they can bring him up to the big league roster.

Why is this so important? Because of…

2. The Specters of Hampton & Neagle (Inability to sign free agents)

The Rockies are ostensibly considered a “mid-market franchise,” meaning that, based on market constraints and lack of a pizza-chain-owning-aging-billionaire-owner-desperate-for-titles-and-glory owner, their financial reality is a bit limited. This makes cost certainty and team control a priority; the longer you can have elite talent on non-free agent contracts the better.

This is especially important because the Rockies aren’t likely to be signing big free agent pitchers anytime soon for 3 reasons: Coors Field, Mike Hampton, and Denny Neagle. Simply put, Coors Field is a difficult place to pitch, since runs mount very quickly. This makes it an unattractive locale for a free agent pitcher. For one to even consider signing, the Rockies have to pay a premium and when they last tried that, before the 2000 season, it did not go well.

Mike Hampton was a diminutive lefty who had shown himself capable of racking up outs and limiting home runs (including two years with 0.5 HR/9). Two years after finishing second in Cy Young voting, he signed an 8 year, $121 million contract, the largest in baseball history at the time. What did the Rockies get for their money? Just a 21-28 record, a 5.75 ERA and 1.3 HR/9. He did give them an All-Star Game appearance, but that was probably moreso for his home run hitting abilities than his quality innings.

For Denny Neagle, it was tragedy and drama fit for a soap opera. Despite a history of outperforming his FIP, the Rockies gave him a 5 year, $51 million contract to try to sort out Coors Field. It was ill advised. In 3 seasons he went 19-23 with a 5.57 ERA, giving up 67 home runs, even though, unlike Hampton, he got to pitch a season with the humidor. Limited by injuries and a thing for prostitutes, he didn’t pitch an inning in the final 2 years of the contract.

The lesson? The Rockies probably aren’t going to be able to sign a top free agent pitcher (how laughable were the James Shields rumors in hindsight–much as I wanted them to be true). So instead they have to develop pitchers, like Gray, Butler, and Kyle Freeland, to have success. And who knows? Maybe these three youngsters can show baseball that you can be successful pitching half your games in Coors Field. Perhaps they might banish these specters and help attract established veterans to sign in Denver. But before that, they must be given the proper time to develop.

Which brings me to my next reason why it’s so important for the Rockies to have success with Gray and Butler…

3. The Ghosts of Weathers & Co. (A Poor Draft History)

So the Rockies acknowledged the folly of chasing free agents and looked more intently at building through the draft. Going back to when Denny left Colfax in December 2003, the Rockies have spent 11 of their past 17 first round picks (including supplemental round) on pitchers. And while it’s too early to tell for the 2011-2014 draft classes, it’s pretty clear the Rockies have a cluster-cuss on their hands with pitchers from the 2004-2009 drafts. Below we see those players along with their production in the major leagues.

Pitchers Drafted by Rockies in First Round, 2005-2009 Year Rnd OvPck RdPck Name Pos WAR G W L ERA WHIP SV 2009 1 11 11 Tyler Matzek LHP 2.1 20 6 11 4.05 1.39 0 2009 1s 34 34 Rex Brothers LHP 4.6 269 15 11 3.49 1.48 20 2008 1 25 25 Christian Friedrich LHP -0.7 32 5 12 6.11 1.53 0 2007 1 8 8 Casey Weathers RHP 2006 1 2 2 Greg Reynolds RHP -1.6 33 6 11 7.01 1.65 0 2005 1s 32 32 Chaz Roe RHP -0.1 24 1 0 4.44 1.52 0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 3/7/2015.



That is some kind of awful right there, especially the big goose eggs on Casey Weathers. What you don’t see on the table is the list of pitchers the Rockies passed on– guys like Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer–to get some of these guys. Matzek’s appearance last year salvages some of that list (more on him in a bit), but only time will tell. In any case, with such a dumpster tire city dump fire of a track record, it’s even more important that the Rockies get these ones right. But having the talent isn’t enough. Lest we forget about…

4. The Lessons of Pomeranz & White (The Dangers of Rushing Prospects)

Noting the lack of recent success in drafting pitchers, the Rockies tried to restock their farm system in the middle of a garbage 2011 season by dealing away staff ace Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians for first rounders Alex White (2009, 15th overall) and Drew Pomeranz (2010, 5th overall). White debuted with Colorado that September and it didn’t get any better in 2012. Rushed to the majors to fill the gaps in an already sinking rotation, White went 4-13 with a 6.30 ERA in two years with the Rockies before being traded to the Astros in December 2012; he hasn’t pitched in the majors since.

Pomeranz was the gem of that deal and the Rockies wanted to bring him along slowly. Alas, 2012 sunk those plans and the Rockies were forced to bring him up before he was ready. He made 22 starts that year, going 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA, averaging less than 5 IP/start (though, to be fair, this was during the Great Piggybacking Experiment, though that serves as further proof of the Rockies meddling with development). He got another shot in 2013 but it was even worse; he made 4 starts in July before being sent down to the minors. After being called up he pitched exclusively in relief and was later traded to the A’s that December. Since then he has pitched well, though he still hasn’t proved himself able to pitch deep into games, only finishing the 6th inning twice in 10 starts.

Moral of the story: the Rockies must learn from this lesson and do everything they can to prevent Gray or Butler (or, later on down the road, Freeland) from being pushed to the majors before their time. Luckily for them it seems the Rockies have learned their lesson, since they have aquired…

5. Help from Kendrick & Hale (Starting Pitching Depth)



It’s pretty clear that the Rockies aren’t going to contend this year save for some miracle breakouts. No, 2016 is the year to aim for, so the Rockies, having learned from lessons 1-4, set out to get some depth for the rotation. There are some guys who played the role of cannon fodder last year like Christian Bergman and Yohan Flande, as well as recent acquirees Kyle Kendrick and David Hale. Thanks to them, the Rockies starting rotation (plus depth) looks like this:

If the Rockies go through that many pitchers for the 3rd time in 4 years, we’ll have to start having a conversation about whether the Rockies need to sacrifice a live rooster in the outfield to appease a voodoo curse. In any case, this type of depth will be key for the Rockies because…

6. The Learning Curves of Gray and Butler (TINSTAAPP)

Last year was Jon Gray’s first full professional season and he spent a good portion of the year developing a change up and working on how to pitch instead of just throw. Eddie Butler, in his second full year, hit some adversity and needs some time to see if he can solve the mystery of his disappearing strikeout rate, as well as whether or not he can stay healthy over a full season. Also, lest we forget: Jon Gray is still just 23 and Butler is only 24. They need some time to develop, which is what the minor leagues are for. If we refer back to former-first-round-pick Tyler Matzek, we see a player who needed every stop he could make in the minor leagues before he could come and have an impact in the majors. Now, time will tell if that measured approach will pay off long term, but the Rockies owe it to Gray and Butler to take their time as well. When they have proven that they don’t have anything left to learn in the minor leagues, then it will be time to test them against major league hitters full time. But, and I can’t stress this enough, don’t promote them to fill a hole–one little Dutch boy isn’t going to save this dam/season–but only if they have nothing else to learn in ABQ. But until that day…

7. Albuquerque is a Fine Place

What, don’t you know about the Land of Enchantment? Besides being home to Breaking Bad and Simpsons promotions, the Isotopes play at a modern ballpark (opened in 2003) with a beautiful view of the Albuquerque scenery. And despite having some park factors that indicate it might be a bit more hitter friendly than Security Services Field in Colorado Springs, there are more advantages for pitching development. There is already a humidor in place, which is good to have for a place with 29% humidity during the baseball season. The elevation of 5,312 feet above sea level much more closely replicates Coors Field than the 6,010 elevation players were dealing with in Colorado Springs. This is more likely to help prepare these top level pitchers for adjustments that will be needed based on the movement of their pitches, so top pitchers will no longer need to skip Triple-A on their way to the majors.

And, besides, Rockies Zingers has two writers in ABQ, so we’d like to have some exclusive access to the team and those two top prospects. So, in short: GO ‘TOPES!