Just recently, Bovada released its annual World Series odds for every team in Baseball. Our beloved New York Mets, as they stand right now, are going at 33/1 odds for the World Series. For comparison's sake, Vegas is a little kinder on us, at 25/1.

In case you're unfamiliar with that terminology, that means, basically, if this upcoming Baseball season was played an infinite amount of times, the Mets, as they stand right now, would win the World Series once every 33 times (or 25 if you use Vegas).

For me, that concept was always a little confusing. I've always wondered how they calculated that. How can they possibly predict that? I've always wanted to see some sort of simulation of this, if just to see the season played over and over, and over, and over, and over again. Also because I want to see the Mets win the World Series.

So, I decided to take it upon myself to offer us all a simulation.

I will conduct an experiment that can simulate the entire 2015 season multiple times. This simulation will seriously challenge the accuracy of the numbers provided by Bovada, Las Vegas, or any other betting line. This is a highly scientific simulation that could blow away any projection system with its advanced calculations, and it could lead us all further into the truth of how good the Mets REALLY are, and how much improvement is really needed. This highly advanced, ground-breaking platform I will use for this simulation is MLB 14 The Show for PlayStation 4.

It's a great game. It's arguably the most realistic sports video game in history. And it has a "Season Mode" feature that allows you to quit and restart a season in the blink of an eye, as long as you don't save anything. So using this game, I will simulate the 2015 MLB season over, and over, and over again, until the Mets win the World Series. Let's see what the Mets' mathematical chances really are.

Yup, this how I spend my Friday nights.

How it will work:

Unfortunately, Sony stops releasing roster updates at the start of the playoffs, which means the most updated roster they have to offer is the one from last season. This is done for obvious marketing reasons, so people are more motivated to buy the next year's game for the roster updates. However, they do allow roster sharing and downloading through vaults online. So, I was able to download a roster online that is very up-to-date, and has lots of top prospects involved in it as well.

Seriously though, shout-out to whomever the guy who made this roster is. He went incredibly in depth with the rosters and farm system of every team. For example, on the Mets, not only does he have the top guys (Syndergaard, Matz, etc.) He's got guys like Gabriel Ynoa, Jack Leathersich, and Cory Mazzoni as well. He's even got Yoan Moncada on the Free Agent list! Major props to this guy, he's scary good.

That said, this downloaded roster is updated as of January 22nd, and this experiment was done on the night of January 23rd, so anything that happens between the time of this experiment and the time of this posting was not taken into account for the rosters. Which means yes, free agents like James Shields and Moncada wound up on different teams in every simulation. The simulation must be done with the teams set as they stand currently, the same way the betting lines are set up, so it had to be done that way.

How I did this experiment was simple. Basically, I just created a season mode with the roster updates, saved it, and then simulated it, noted the results, quit the mode, started over, simmed the season, rinse, repeat, again, and again, and again, etc.

It should also be noted that I did not tamper with any of the rosters, I did not make any moves to improve the team, I did not affect the outcome of any season, and I did not play any games. Everything that happened was up to the AI, and the seasons went as the AI saw fit. The Mets' roster is made up of all of the players on the current team, I didn't even trade Dillon Gee.

The Experiment:

Phase I: An Innocent Start

I went into this thing thinking that this would be an interesting, innocent little experiment that could make for a fun idea for a FanPost. Seems logical, right?

We started off the simulations (I'll call them "Trials" from here on) with Trials 1 and 2 resulting in winning teams, but the Mets missed the playoffs by just a hair in both of them.

In Trials 3 and 4, the Mets won 90 and 93 games, respectively, and won the wild card in both trials. They won both Wild Card games, against the Rockies and Giants (don't ask about the Rockies, I don't know.) They would go on to the NLDS, where they'd lose to the Nationals in both trials, getting swept in one and losing the other in 4.

Damn it, Nats.

Trial 5:

Of all of the trials of this experiment, the 5th one was easily the most interesting. First of all, the Mets started out at a ridiculous 64-44 in their first 108 games. At which point, the Padres offered me literally the worst trade offer in the history of things, ever:

Mets Receive: SP Shawn Kelly, SP Andrew Cashner, and LF Rymer Liriano

Padres Recieve: SP Noah Syndergaard, SP Rafael Montero, and 2B Dilson Herrera

No, this actually happened. The computer thought this would actually be fair. Look, here's the visual proof:

Yeah.

After that great start though, the Mets would wind up going just 21-33 over the last 2 months, in classic Mets fashion, to finish at 85-77. However, they were still able to make the playoffs. This is largely because the Cubs and Reds were both tied at 85-77 for the Wild Card spots as well, however the Mets had some sort of tie-breaker over both of them I guess, so those two went to a game 163, with the winner getting the first Wild Card, and the loser going home. The Cubs won.

The Mets won the Wild Card game rather handedly, 6-1. They would advance to the NLDS to face... Take a guess.

The Nationals.

But, this time the Mets are actually competitive. The series went to 5 games, with the 5th game being a Harvey-Scherzer showdown. In that game, The Mets took a 5-3 lead going into the bottom of the 9th inning, when Jenrry Mejia came in for the save. And he blew it. He gave up 3 runs, and the Nats won the game 6-5, and they took the series.

FUCK THE NATS FUCK THE NATS FUCK THE NATS

Trial 6:

The Mets have an out-of-nowhere elite season, winning 99 games, and winning the NL East by 6 games over the Nationals, who only won 93 games.

In the NLDS, the Mets take on the Padres and win the series 3 games to 1. They would advance to the NLCS to face the Dodgers, where they'd lose in 6 games. Ugh.

Trial 7:

It started to surprise me how frequently the Mets were making the playoffs. They get the 2nd wild card here, winning 89 games.

In the Wild Card game in San Diego, it was a scoreless duel until the top of the 9th, when Curtis Granderson ripped an RBI double. The Mets would win 1-0 with that double.

In the NLDS, the Mets faced the Cardinals. The Mets fell down 2 games to none early, and it looked like another playoff elimination. But then, the Mets would come roaring back to take the next 3 games by scores of 3-2, 12-1, and 4-2, and win the series 3 games to 2. This looked promising.

The Mets would face the Dodgers in the NLCS once again. And they lost 4 games to 1.

Damn.

After missing the playoffs in both of Trials 8 and 9, it was on to Trial 10.

Trial 10:

This time, they won the division by 5 games over the Nationals, who disappoint at 87-75.

They'd go on to the NLDS to face the Dodgers, once again. This time, the Mets swept the series 3-0, highlighted by a 4-3 win in Game 3 in which the Mets scored 3 runs in the 9th inning.

In the NLCS, the Mets were faced with a much tougher task with the Cardinals. It was a back and forth series, and it would go to 7 games. Game 7 was a great game that went 10 innings. The Mets would score a run in the 10th inning, to win the game 5-4, and take the series. The Mets were on to the World Series!

For the first time in this experiment, the Mets had a chance at the Fall Classic. They faced the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays jumped out to a 3-2 series lead, meaning the Mets would have to win the last 2 games. They won Game 6, to set up a dramatic Game 7 scenario.

A scenario in which they lost 2-1. The Rays scored both of their runs in the 7th inning. The Mets scored their lone run in the first inning. The Mets lose the World Series.

So, we try again.

Unfortunately, the next 3 trials (Trials 11, 12, and 13) did not yield better results. The Mets clinched playoff berth in all 3, but wound up losing the Wild Card game in each of those seasons. They lost to the Padres both in the 11th and 12th trials, by scores of 6-3 and 4-0, and then 3-1 to the Cubs in the 13th trials.

Phase II: Depression

At this point, I was beginning to lose my patience. I guess constantly seeing your favorite team lose in the playoffs over and over again takes its toll, even in a video game simulation. I was now getting more and more emotionally invested in the playoff games and more and more disappointed by losses. I wanted this to end soon.

Trials 14 and 15 both had the Mets missing the playoffs. Just for insults, the Nats won 106 games in the 15th trial.

In Trial 16, The Mets went to a Game 163 with the Nats for the division. The loser got the 2nd wild card. The Mets were the losers, because fucking Nationals. Then they lost the wild card game to the Cubs, 4-1.

In Trial 17, the Mets won the wild card, but lost the play-in game yet again. To who, you ask? Oh, just the friggin' Marlins.

Phase III: Frustration

Now, I am becoming visibly frustrated. I start walking around my room, anticipating every postseason. Every loss angers me more and more. Especially because this experiment could've easily been over 8 trials ago.

Trial 18:

The Mets come out of nowhere to have the best season of this whole stupid experiment. They win 102 games. They actually had a losing record going into June, but then a ridiculous 19-4 month, highlighted by a 13-game winning streak, propelled this team into elitism, and they never slowed down.

What's more, the Nationals lost the Wild Card game! They couldn't eliminate the Mets anymore! This was going to be it. This was the best team I've had to deal with yet. This was going to be the simulation that the Mets would finally win the World Series.

Until they lost the NLDS to the Dodgers, 3 games to 2.

Then, after missing the playoffs in Trials 19 and 20, they returned to the playoffs in Trial 21. They won the Wild Card. And in the Wild Card game, they faced the Padres- AGAIN!

And they lost - AGAIN!

Trial 22:

The Mets won 90 games. The stupid Nationals stumbled to an 86-76 record and missed the playoffs. Stupid idiots!

We were in the NLDS, and we faced the Rockies, who apparently the game has a hard-on for. We took a 2-1 lead in the series, and it looked like the Mets were on their way back to the NLCS for the first time since Trial 10. Until they lost the last 2 games and lost the series.

I hate you.

Phase IV: MARCH ON!

Now, I was pissed off. I had just been given a gigantic middle-finger by the game. We just lost a playoff series to the Rockies. I was tired of this, and I wanted this to end. It was getting late, and I was thinking of quitting and finishing this the next day. But then I realized, I mustn't. Quitting now would be false hustle.

But this was no longer an experiment. No, no, this was now a quest. Everything I thought this was going to be was now out the window. This was a quest for a friggin' New York Mets World Series. It was going to happen, and the only thing that would stop me from seeing the Mets raise up the World Series trophy was my PS4 literally blowing up from over-use.

But in Trial 23, the Mets missed the playoffs. Pooey.

Trial 24:

We're back in the playoffs in Trial 24 by winning 89 games and clinching a Wild Card. And we beat those stupid Rockies 7-0 in the Wild Card game. I have no explanation to how they keep making the playoffs, but whatever. We beat them this time.

The Mets go onto the NLDS and face - You guessed it - The Nationals.

We would not be denied this time. It was time to beat the Nats in a friggin' playoff series. The Mets know this, and jump out to a 2-1 lead in the series. They lost Game 4, to set up a Game 5.

Game 5 went 12 innings. AND THE NATIONALS WON THE DAMN THING I HATE EVERYTHING WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY IS THIS HAPPENING TO US

Phase V: INSANITY

I hate this. I really do. I loathe the Nationals, too. I was losing my mind at this point. I was literally on the verge of crying after every playoff loss. Seriously, I was in near tears. I was now so emotionally invested in this that it was almost like a real-life pennant race. Except the Mets just kept losing. This was a nightmare that I brought upon myself. I hate myself. It was late. I wanted this to end NOW. But I must continue.

Trial 25:

The Mets won 96 games and won the division. Alright, this was it. The Nationals fell to a laughable 81-81, missing the playoffs. They weren't in our way. Neither were the Rockies, who also missed.

The Cardinals were the other tough test, but they were no match for our Mets in the NLDS, who swept those birds away in 3 games.

It was on the NLCS for the first time in 15 trials. We'd face the Dodgers.

...And we'd lose in 5 games.

Trial 26:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Mets won the division again. At this point, who cares? Who they'd face in the NLDS was a damn-near formality now, the damn Nationals.

AND THEY SWEPT THOSE ASSHOLES RIGHT OUT OF THE FUCKING BALLPARK IN 3 GAMES HOLY SHIT YES YES YES YES YES YES!!!!!!!!!!

When that happened, I was so irrationally pumped. I was literally jumping up and down. This was easily the highlight of the last 7 years of my Mets fandom.

In the subsequent NLCS, the Mets faced the Padres. We quickly fell down 2 games to 0. I was starting to cry again. But then the Mets roared back and won 3 in a row to take a 3-2 series lead! I was literally standing on my bed, so excited for the next game.

The Mets would lose Game 6, forcing a Game 7. And the Mets lost that game too, 6-3. They were eliminated.

AAAAARGHHHHH!!!!!

In Trial 27, the Mets won 102 games in the regular season again, but lost the NLDS in 4 games... to the Marlins. My head hurts. I should probably stop banging it.

In Trial 28, the Mets flat-out missed the playoffs.

Trial 29:

Okay, here we go again. The Mets are in the playoffs as division winners, winning 98 games.

They face the Dodgers in the NLDS, and they swept them.

In the NLCS, the Mets would face the Giants. And they beat them in 5 games! It was on to the World Series, for just the 2nd time in 29 painstaking attempts. The opponent would be the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners won Game 1 in 11 innings, and then the teams traded wins the next 4 games, meaning the Mariners held a 3-2 series lead through 5 games, and the Mets were in another hole. This seems familiar.

Game 6 went 11 innings again, but this time, the Mets came out on top. It was down to Game 7 of the World Series.

I decided to live-sim Game 7. After all of the work, time, and frustration put into this, I needed to see if this was going to end, or if I would have to put myself through more simulations. However, I would still not control any of the Mets, this was still up to the AI.

The starters were Zack Wheeler and Felix Hernandez. The game went tied 2-2 into the 9th. By now, I was actually watching the game. The computer was still playing both teams, but I was watching now.

Both teams stranded runners in scoring position in the 9th, without scoring. We were on to extras.

In the 10th inning, Travis d'Arnaud singled. With two out, and one on, Juan Lagares stepped to the plate. And on a 1-1 pitch:

(Video that I made but couldn't embed it)

He freaking homered. Juan did it. The Mets took a 4-2 lead in the 10th inning! Bobby Parnell came in to shut the door, and pitched a 1-2-3 inning.

AND THE METS. HAD WON. THE FREAKING. WORLD. SERIES. OH MY GOD JUAN LAGARES IS OUR HERO.

Twenty-nine tries. It took 29 attempts, but it happened. The simulation had concluded that the Mets chances at the World Series this year are actually 29/1.

For reference, the average Met win total of the 29 trials was 88.3. The Mets missed the playoffs 10 times, made the playoffs 19 times. 8 of those were division titles, 11 Wild Card titles. 2 NLCS wins. Seem optimistic? Perhaps. But, who are we to judge?

In case you're wondering, when Juan homered, I felt no relief. I was disappointed in myself. I actually had just done this whole entire thing. This is not a feat, this is a realization of one's failures in life, all come together at one time. So I decided to make a FanPost about it, and ruin all of your lives as well.

So, in summation, what have we learned?

1. Don't listen to the odds makers whose job it is to do this. The Mets' real World Series odds are 29/1, and that's the bottom line, because metgiants3380 said so. This experiment is not flawed at all.

2. Take the under on Vegas, take the over on Bovada.

3. I immediately regret investing so much time on this.

4. I didn't realize it until afterward, but the Mets have caused me so much frustration over my short time as a fan (only since 2006, #LTM) but now they had found a way to cause me tons of frustration... in a video game. In January.

5. You probably shouldn't have clicked on this.

6. Apparently there's something that we don't know about the Rockies. Don't sleep on them.

7. The Mets have better chances at a World Series than the Phillies do at having a winning record. Seriously, I don't think I saw them have as much as a winning record even once in any simulation. And in addition, I saw the Braves have a winning season just once.

8. The Nationals are complete dicks.

9. Putting certain words in bold makes things look more official.

10. My self-respect is, evidently, non-existent.

11. This was a terrible idea, and complete a waste of time. Much like betting on sports.