Iowa poll: Trump, Carson lead GOP race

The outsider, non-politician duo of Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to lead the Republican field in Iowa and are the only candidates in double digits among the 17-person field, according to a poll released Saturday night.

Trump, the billionaire businessman and entertainer, leads the pack with 23 percent of the vote in the Iowa Poll, conducted by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, has 18 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz each polled at 8 percent. Former Gov. Jeb Bush, the presumptive national frontrunner whose campaign and affiliated PACs have raised more than $100 million, is at just 6 percent, tied with a fellow Floridian, Sen. Marco Rubio.


Most worrying for Bush is his low approval numbers. Only 45 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 50 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. He is joined in underwater territory by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is thought of unfavorably by 59 percent of caucusgoers, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who gets a thumbs down from 49 pecent.

Paul's slip is particularly dramatic. In October 2014, 59 percent of likely caucusgoers had a favorable opinion of the libertarian-leaning senator whose father came close to winning Iowa in 2012. Now, only 39 percent do. Paul earned 4 percent of the vote.

Trump's favorability, meanwhile, sits at 61 percent. Thirty-five percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. Only 29 percent of caucusgoers declared they would never vote for the bombastic real estate developer, compared to 39 percent who said they could not ever support Bush, with some 48 percent saying the same of Christie.

Carson has even stronger numbers: Seventy-nine percent have a favorable opinion of him, and only 8 percent have an unfavorable opinion. A third non-politician, former Hewlett-Packard CEO and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina, polled at 5 percent. Sixty-four percent of likely caucusgoers have a favorable opinion of her.

Further down in the field, the past two Iowa Republican caucus winners -- former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum -- are drawing just 4 percent and 1 percent of the vote, respectively. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, whose campaign is more focused on New Hampshire, is drawing just 2 percent, tied with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry's support is at 1 percent. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore all didn't receive enough support to register in the poll.

Selzer conducted the poll of 400 likely GOP caucusgoers from Aug. 23 to Aug. 26. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.