FINANCIAL ICEBERG

Always consider hidden risks

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CHARTS

US Transports Economic Pulse : Trucks -- Boats - Planes - Trains

( From​ The American Trucking Associations, Calculated Risks, Nomura, Econintersect, IATA, AAR )



Here, we will take a look at transportations to give us a clue about the state of the US and global economy​​.



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So, for the Air Cargo factor, we have signs of a global weakening economy...​

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Week 13 of 2013 ending March 30 shows same week total rail traffic above 2012 levels according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR).



This Week Carloads Intermodal Total



This week Year-over-Year -1.9% -3.8% -2.8%



Year Cumulative to Date -3.0% 5.3% 0.7%





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For the first 13 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,570,874 carloads, down 3.0 percent from the same point last year, and 3,084,916 intermodal units, up 5.3 percent from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 13 weeks of 2013 was 6,655,790 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.7 percent from last year.





​​So for the Trains, we have a weaker trend lately of the year rail traffic results...​​

Maritime Container Traffic

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Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for December. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic

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​​Clerical workers at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles went on strike starting Nov 27th and ending Dec 5th. The strike impacted port traffic for November and early December, but traffic bounced back quickly following the strike. Some of the LA traffic was routed to other ports in early December, so this data might not be as useful this month.

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​ The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).



To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. ( See graph below )

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Air Cargo

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Nomura's air cargo volume index, which correlated with global industrial activities with correlation at 0.84, is pointing to another decline for the global economy since mid June 2012 as shown by the graph below...



​​Trains





​​AAR reported mixed rail traffic for the week ending March 30, 2013, with total U.S. weekly carloads of 281,367 carloads, down 1.9 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 233,587 units, down 3.8 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. traffic for the week was 514,954 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.8 percent compared with the same week last year. ( See graphs below )





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Trucking Indutsry



​​ The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.6% in February after increasing 1% in January. (The 1% gain in January was revised down from a 2.4% increase ATA reported on February 19, 2013.) Tonnage has now increased for four straight months, which hasn’t happened since late 2011 . Over the last four months, tonnage gained a total of 7.7%. In February, the SA index equaled 123.6 (2000=100) versus 123.0 in January. The highest level on record was December 2011 at 124.3. Compared with February 2012, the SA index was up a solid 4.2%, just below January’s 4.6% year-over-year gain. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2012, the tonnage index is up 4.4%. In 2012, tonnage increased 2.3% from 2011.



The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 113.5 in February, which was 5.5% below the previous month (120.1).



“Fitting with several other key economic indicators, truck tonnage is up earlier than we anticipated this year,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “While I think this is a good sign for the industry and the economy, I’m still concerned that freight tonnage will slow in the months ahead as the federal government sequester continues and households finish spending their tax returns. A little longer term, I think the economy and the industry are poised for a more robust recovery.” ( See graph below ).



Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.2 billion tons of freight in 2011. Motor carriers collected $603.9 billion, or 80.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.



So, for the trucking industry, we have a significant uptrend, a result from Sandy ?...

