2016 Paris-Nice Preview

THE ROUTE

P: Conflans-Sainte-Honorine

A 6km prologue TT, later stages will render today relatively inconsequential. With Rohan Dennis pulling out due to illness, picking a winner here is full of chance. Nonetheless possible winners include Coppel, Petit and Démare.

1: Condé-sur-Vesgre-Vendôme

A largely flat day, don’t be fooled by the categorised c,imbs at the end, with 1km at 3.7% lacking the sharpness needed to break the peloton. The dirt roads however, might just do enough, and if they don’t it’s very possible the narrowness and tension will. Kittel and Greipel will fight for the win, but at least one GC hopeful’s chances will turn to dust.

2: Contres-Commentry

A basic sprint stage with a small chance of crosswind action. Greipel and Kittel will sprint again. Bouhanni or Kristoff could spring a surprise, but it’s doubtful.

3: Cusset-Mont Brouilly

With little happening for most of the day, the last 40km should be action packed, taking in two ascents of Brouilly (3km at 7.7%). The climb gets steeper as it goes on, definitely favouring punchier riders. Possible winers include Gilbert, Porte, Bardet, Henao and many others. It all depends on whether the race is pushed about or left coasting until the last ascent.

4: Juliénas-Romans-Sur-Isére

A tricky stage, long and bumpy but with a dead flat finale. Kristoff becomes an option after a hard stage, but will still struggle against Greipel and Kittel.

5: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteux-Salon-De-Provence

A very selective middle section creates a stage that will be very hard to control. An enterprising attack by a GC will cause chaos, especially after the lower slopes of Mont Ventoux slice the field up early on. The most likely scenario involves a large peloton reaching the last 40km together, however the last two climbs coming just after will throw many very tired riders backwards on the road. A breakaway could easily hold a lead today, and this could include a renewed Voeckler or Chavanel, and a host of other breakaway specialists

6: Nice-La Madone d’Utelle

A conventional medium mountains stage, the last climb is a real grind with 15.7km at 5.7%. Porte, Thomas, Contador, Gallopin, Bardet, Rolland and Spilak should arrive in a fairly small front group, with a key sprint for bonus seconds as the climb flattens out near the finish.

7: Nice-Nice

A stage for the descenders, expect Contador or Bardet to attack on the descent from the final climb, 15km of twists and turns down to the traditional finish along the boardwalk.

GC FAVOURTES

After an imperious performance in the Volta ao Algarve’s hilltop finish, Contador is the major favourite thanks to a possibly understrength Richie Porte

Thomas provides a strong challenge for Team Sky, and will surely have an advantage after the prologue, after which he will try to follow wheels and maintain that gap.

A large French contingent could spring a surprise, with Bardet, Gallopin and Rolland within reach of a podium finish.

Spilak and Zakarin both bring week long specialisation and love of wet, cold weather to the table, which can always help a victory.

Other team leaders with outside chances include Simon Yates, Kelderman and Dumoulin, and will create a fierce battle for the top 5 and/or podium.

***** Contador

**** -

*** -

** Bardet, Thomas, Porte

* S. Yates, Bardet, Gallopin, Kelderman, Spilak, Others

KEY POINTS

No one knows where Porte will be after his injury hampered Tour of Oman and his brilliant victory on Willunga Hill.

It’s sad the Coquard is out of this race. He knows his way around mixed surfaces and would be a threat in Vendôme more than anywhere else.

The route is well designed, but incorporates some inexplicable long transfers.

Is it really Paris-Nice if you get there the night before the penultimate stage?

Is the hilly stage more exciting than the mountain TT, or is doing both better? Each idea has been used recently and we’ll see what happens this year.

ONWARDS

Richie Porte’s form will be the most important marker for the rest of the season. He needs to show potential for the year before Van Garderen puts in good performances in Tirreno-Adriatico.

It will also be interesting to see where Majka’s participation goes, as he will surely support Contador, but perhaps needs a workout a few months away from the Giro.

Delko Marseille will be watch closely here by other World Tour organisers. They must prove their worth in the sporting sense to win places later this year.