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“It kind of put to rest the old assumption that most of the switching in this country is between Liberal and Tory voters. In fact what we’re seeing with the Tory coalition is that it’s pretty resilient,” Bricker said.

“The better the Liberals do, the worse the NDP does, and the more likely Stephen Harper is to win.”

The Bloc Quebecois sat at seven% support in the new poll, and the Greens registered just two%.

The Liberals have made strong gains in Ontario and Quebec, with support going up eight points to 30% in Ontario and up 10 points to 25% in Quebec.

“When you talk about winning national elections in this country, you really have to have a base in one of those two places, and that the Liberals have picked up a bit in both spots is great for them,” Bricker said.

The NDP continued to be the top choice for Quebecers, at 34%, although the province’s support for the party has dropped from 40% in June. The NDP was at 30% in Ontario.

Since the summer, Liberals also picked up support among women, up 11 points to 27%, and seniors, up 12 points to 28%. Bricker pointed to Trudeau, saying that, particularly for leaders on the left, voters like to feel that they have a personal connection.

“For some reason, at this stage of the game, it looks like Trudeau’s been able to bring that back into the Liberal party and made them a threat again,” Bricker said.

The Liberals’ next challenge will be to find a way to dig into Conservative support instead of just swapping votes with the NDP, Bricker said.

The poll surveyed a sample of 2,009 Canadians either on the telephone or in an online interview between Nov. 6 and Nov. 8, and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 95% of the time.