Two weeks into the 2016 NFL season and the Detroit Lions are as confusing as ever. Coming off of a thrilling road victory in Indianapolis, the team and its fans looked ahead to a theoretically easy win over a perpetually rebuilding Titans team. After the offensive clinic put on by Stafford’s new pick-and-pop style of passing in Indy, a home game against Tennessee seemed like a great opportunity for the Lions to flex their new offensive muscle.

So when Stafford threw up a duck to a pouncing Perrish Cox at the end of the fourth quarter—erasing the fleeting hope of a deja vu Prater gamer winner—I sat there, in a Chili’s in Seekonk, Massachusetts, scratching my head amidst a crowd of mirthful Patriots fans.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Tennessee was supposed to be a pushover! Vegas had us up by 6.5 points! Did I count out Tennessee following a loss to an actually good Vikings team? Was the Indy secondary truly that awful? Maybe the Cooter Revolution was merely a Cooter mirage? In any case, what’s true is that the befuddling Detroit Lions are back for another confusing, head-scratching season.

In week one, the Lions offense appeared to have as masterfully adapted to the loss of Calvin Johnson as any team could respond to the loss of an all-time great. Stafford, no longer forcing the ball to a double or triple covered #81 three to four times per game, looked comfortable making conservative throws to his pick of open receivers. The offense was able to develop and open up space for short tosses to players like the excellent Theo Riddick, who scrambled for 45 yards, caught another 63, and added a TD through both the air and the run game—just his second touchdown ever on a carry.

Yet when the Lions employed their new offense on Tennessee, it proved far less effective. The production just wasn’t there. Riddick, the star of week one, saw his numbers fall to below average. But maybe I can’t expect him to put up the all-pro type performance of the Indy game on a week to week basis. So the most discouraging performance came from Stafford, whose week one completion percentage of nearly 80% fell to just 55% in week two. Ouch.

Part of Stafford’s struggles came from the increased pressure Tennessee brought throughout the game. Stafford took four sacks on Sunday, and two more QB hits from a bulldozing Jurell Casey. Week one provided an illusion of a resurgent Lions O-line with draftee Taylor Decker looking strong on the left side, allowing Reiff to assume a more comfortable position on the right. A revived Larry Warford and improved Laken Tomlinson only added to this illusion.

Yet in week two, the Lions could not get the ball out fast enough to run their offense effectively, and a number of dropped passes didn’t help. Stafford hit eight separate receivers in Indianapolis, but just five this past Sunday, as the options just didn’t show amidst the increased pressure and downfield coverage brought by Tennessee. The luxury of chucking a few balls up deep to Megatron was sorely missed as the Tennessee defense cinched tighter on our short throws and run game. Golden Tate has looked lost in the new offense through two weeks, and will need to come up with big yards after catch plays to release the pressure valve of swarming defenses like Tennessee.

Everything that worked for the Lions in week one failed in week two. This was a disappointing and confusing change in momentum for a Lions team looking to take advantage of a division with a banged up Vikings, slumping Packers, and a dilapidated Bears team.

The loss of Ameer Abdullah represents another challenge for Cooter’s Lions, as they now face the tough choice of using Riddick as their main back or, as reports have it, signing Joique Bell off the couch and back into the offense. Last year the Lions had the worst run game in terms of raw production, with Joique, Abdullah, and Riddick all sharing touches. A year of experience made Abdullah a real threat on the ground, and through two weeks the Lions are sitting in the top third of the league in running yardage. This run game renaissance will surely subside unless Riddick silences the doubters with consistent gains on first and second downs on the ground.

Paradoxically, the defense looked fairly good in week two, despite giving up a second consecutive go-ahead score with under 5 minutes left in the game. Tennessee was able to abuse the Lions over the middle much as Luck did in week one, which while discouraging, is to be expected considering our lack of depth. One odd problem facing the Lions defense is the production of a now injured Ezekiel Ansah, who has yet to register a sack between two games, despite being a preseason favorite for sack-leader. The sample size is so small here, though, that we might overlook the 0 in Ansah’s sack column for a few more weeks before panic sets in. Also, what the fuck is a Kerry Hyder!?

Hyder came out of nowhere to become the defensive star of the Lions D-line, registering three sacks in his two games after surging up the pre-season depth chart. If Hyder’s production continues, he can distract from Ansah to create a devastating pair of edge rushers going forward.

Despite the intense confusion I felt in the Chili’s on Sunday, I still feel largely optimistic about this Lions season. I hope that the Tennessee game constitutes a hiccup produced by attempting to fine-tune the offense. Despite a poor performance last game, Stafford has made very few awful throws, and has just the one interception, which can be viewed as a product of circumstance more than a boneheaded error. Also, increased production from Tate and Ansah could bolster the Lions on both sides of the ball, and perhaps the loss of Abdullah won’t return the Lions to the doldrums of last season’s run production—trust in the chronicles of Riddick.

The real test will come Sunday against the Packers in Lambeau, the site of a surprising Lions victory last year. For two seasons the Lions-Packers series has ended in a split, and a similar result or better is likely necessary for a Lions division title. The Packers have yet to get on the same page offensively despite the return of Jordi Nelson, losing to the Vikings Sunday night, and squeaking one past the hapless Jags in week one. The Lions may pounce on the jelling Packers team Sunday afternoon, or might also get thrashed as Rodgers and his receivers finally bond over the destruction of the Lions stumbling secondary. It will depend on which Lions team shows up. The one that went to Indy and pulled one out, or the wet fart of an offense we saw this past Sunday.

Till then, have a great week.

Prediction:

Lions 24, Packers 31