Construction work in progress at a building site in India (Reuters photo) Construction work in progress at a building site in India (Reuters photo)

The recent macroeconomic projections for 2030 by the US Department of Agriculture portends well for India. In the next 15 years, India is believed to rise up the rankings and for the first time, enter the top three to become the third largest economy in the world.

The statistics by the US Department of Agriculture will be good news for the Narendra Modi-led government which was voted to power last year on the promise of strengthening the flailing Indian economy and providing the much-needed reforms to boost growth. Reduced global oil prices and renewed investor confidence have put India on the growth roadmap and helped it to become one of the fastest growing developing economies.

The current macroeconomic projections for 2015 show India in the eighth spot, behind countries like Brazil, France and Germany. However, in the next 15 years, India is likely to surpass these countries to break into the top three. The projections show that even though US is likely to be the world’s largest economy, it will have reduced dominance. On the other hand, China, a robust Asian powerhouse, will be closely following the US economy on the number 2 spot.

Some of the other countries predicted to be in the top 10 are Japan, Germany, UK and France. The data set shows figures from 1969 till the current year (inflation adjusted) and then projects figures till 2030.

“Growth numbers are now much higher and the current account deficit is comfortable, in part due to the fall in gold imports and lower oil prices,” Paul Cashin, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission Chief for India was quoted saying in an annual report. “New investment project announcements have started to pick up, particularly in the power and transport sectors.”

This fiscal year, the growth forecast for India is said to be 7.2 per cent, the IMF notes.

Further, the IMF has commended some of the robust and decisive steps taken by the government such as deregulating diesel prices and ‘continued emphasis on fiscal discipline.’

The IMF also has words of praise for PM Modi’s flagship initiative ‘Make in India’ — a scheme that encourages manufacturing and production in the country itself especially in areas like defence and technology.

“Within the next 15 years, India will have the largest, and among the youngest, workforces in the world, and will need to create jobs for the roughly one hundred million young Indians who will enter the job market in the coming decade,” the report says. However, the organization advises better implementation of reforms especially in areas like mining and power.

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