California is a national leader in cutting greenhouse gas emissions, but it is well short of meeting its climate goals for the next decade and won’t reach them for at least 30 years unless drastic action is taken, a study of the state’s green economy stated Tuesday.

The 11th California Green Innovation Index found the state would have to reduce carbon dioxide from cars and factories by an average of 4.51% every year to meet the goal set by SB32, which requires car and factory emissions to be 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80% lower by 2050.

The only state or country to ever accomplish a reduction that large was France, when it switched its power system to nuclear in 1974 in response to a worldwide oil shortage, climate experts said. California has been reducing carbon emissions by an average of about 1.15% a year.

“California has made tremendous gains cutting pollution without detrimental economic impacts ... but this year’s index serves as a wake-up call,” said Noel Perry, founder of Next 10, a San Francisco nonprofit research group that focuses on the economy and the environment. “We’re going to need major policy breakthroughs and deep structural changes if we’re going to deliver the much-steeper emissions reductions required in the years ahead.”

The state’s emissions record has been stellar so far — at least in comparison to the rest of the country, according to the report, co-authored by Next 10 and the consulting firm Beacon Economics. Greenhouse gas emissions have been cut more than 25% since 1990 while gross domestic product has increased 41% per capita.

California, which has the second-lowest rate of energy-related carbon emissions per capita in the nation after New York, met its self-imposed 2020 emissions reduction goals four years early. The year 2017 marked the first time more of the state’s power came from renewable sources like wind and solar than from fossil fuels.

But the early success may be deceiving, according to the study, which closely tracked California’s climate policies and their impacts on the economy. Since 2000, it said, the electrical grid has been the only economic sector that has had continuous declines in greenhouse gas emissions.

Industry, housing and transportation recorded reductions of less than 5%, but the commercial sector, which includes all businesses not involved in manufacturing or transport, increased emissions 64% in the 17 years following the turn of the century.

Meanwhile, vehicle emissions hit a record high in 2017, accounting for 41% of the state’s total. That’s because car ownership rates and vehicle miles traveled were at an all-time high that year, said Adam Fowler, director of research at Beacon Economics.

“We’ve had bonkers economic growth, so its not surprising to see those things go up in a healthy economy,” Fowler said.

People are also buying more SUVs, pickup trucks and minivans than in the past, Fowler said. Such low-efficiency vehicles made up 57.3% of new-vehicle registrations in 2018 compared with 39.3% five years earlier, he said.

If nothing changes, California won’t meet its 2030 emissions goals until 2061 and won’t meet its 2050 target for at least 100 years, according to the report.

Christopher Field, a climate scientist with the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, said France reduced its emissions by an average of about 5% a year for a decade after it switched to nuclear. Matching that, however, will be very difficult because it requires changes in technology, consumer habits, and government and business practices, he said.

“It has been clear for some time that California needs to dramatically up its game in transitioning from the 2020 to the 2030 climate goals,” said Field, who was not involved in the study. “Much of the success in reaching the 2020 goals came almost for free as a result of declining prices for renewable electricity generation. Meeting the much more ambitious 2030 goals will require real work.”

David Clegern, a spokesman for the California Air Resources Board, said Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order last month to funnel billions of dollars into making transportation systems cleaner.

“We recognize that achieving the target of a 40% reduction by 2030 is an ambitious goal for California,” Clegern wrote in an email Tuesday. “It is clear that achieving the state’s ambitious goals will require continued legislative and funding support.”

Clegern said the agency has a “cost-effective, technologically feasible path to achieve our 2030 target, which requires reductions much like those called for in the Next 10 study,” but, he added, “we need to make sure the policies and necessary transformations identified in it are actually happening.”

California has already seen a dramatic increase in temperatures since the 1980s, with four of the warmest years on record happening since 2014, according to National Weather Service records.

The snowpack in the Sierra has been in a continual decline, decreasing by 9% since 1906, according to a report by the California Environmental Protection Agency. The largest glaciers in the Sierra have shrunk by an average of about 70%, and marine heat waves have increased, according to several reports.

The result of all this change has been an alarming increase in weather-related calamities. The five largest wildfire years since 1950 have all occurred since 2006, and the past two years saw the deadliest and most destructive wildfires in state history.

Although the report is sobering, the study’s authors said there is hope. Electric-vehicle use is at an all-time high, and solar and wind are now cost competitive with fossil fuels.

California’s leadership role in the development of clean fuels and sustainable energy has largely driven the market in the rest of the country. This innovative spirit, in defiance of the political trends in Washington, D.C., puts the state at the forefront of a new economic model that could, if handled properly, make clean energy the standard throughout the world, the authors said.

Perry of Next 10 said a dozen new battery electric vehicles are scheduled to go on the market in 2020, and many companies are switching to all-electric-vehicle fleets.

“We’ve seen very, very good sales of electrical vehicles,” Perry said. “So technology could decrease the price of the battery, and more people are able to afford an electric vehicle.”

The key is for housing, manufacturing and agriculture to switch to a renewable, sustainable business model.

“There are a number of challenges like that that are very, very significant, but California has historically been a leader,” Perry said. “Part of our mantra over the years has been that California can grow its economy while reducing emissions.”

San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Mallory Moench contributed to this report.

Peter Fimrite is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: pfimrite@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @pfimrite