It’s mid August and draft prep season is in full swing! We are all mocking like crazy (or you should be) right now in preparation for the highlight of the fantasy season. Draft day! It’s easy enough to look up ADP data and rankings and craft a basic draft strategy. Here on this site I’ve already put together a Complete 2014 Fantasy Draft Strategy Guide with rankings, sleepers and players to avoid. In this collumn I will go through ADP data for each of the major positions and identify one overvalued player and one undervalued player. These types of columns are always a bit controversial so I encourage readers to flame away! That’s what the comments section is all about. Still the goal in a Fantasy Draft is to out draft your opponents. Simply following the ADP is a surefire way to draft an average team. Knowing who to avoid and when is the key to a successful draft and season.

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For the purposes of this post I am using ADP Data from Fantasypros.com

OVER/UNDER

QB POSITION





Overvalued:





Andrew Luck QB COLTS (QB5 – ADP 43) – There’s no doubt that Luck is a talented player that has improved every season. In 2013 Luck passed for 3800+ yards with 23 TD’s and 9 Int’s. He added 4 rushing TD’s as well. Still word out of Colts camp indicates a continued focus on the run. With an ADP of 43 Luck is being taken as an early 4th round pick. Luck’s stats simply don’t justify the reach in the 4th round when players like Brady and Ryan, which can deliver similar stats, can be had 4-5 rounds later.

Undervalued:





Jay Cutler QB BEARS (QB14 – ADP 86) – Cutler has a lot of things going for him in 2014. The Trestman Offense in Chicago has proven to be explosive. In 2013 we saw the breakout for Alshon Jeffrey giving Chicago and Cutler two tow 10 WR’s that together are virtually unrecoverable. Plus Chicago’s mediocre defense combined with some explosive NFC North offenses promise to deliver a plethora of high scoring shoot out games. At QB14 Cutler is going off the board as a high end backup QB. I believe he will deliver top 10 QB numbers at a bargain basement price.

RB POSITION

Overvalued:









Arian Foster RB HOU (RB8 – ADP11) I love Arian Foster as a person. I really do. Last year he came out with an op-ed about fatherhood that nearly brought me to tears. That said this is about fake football. Foster is coming off a back injury after which he contemplated retirement. Back injuries are notoriously difficult to heal and often recur. Even with out that injury the situation in Houston looks bleak at the moment. Their Offense will be lead by perennial scrum Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is not a QB that stretches defenses. Foster will be facing stacked boxes all season long. In the past when teams stacked the box on Houston Matt Schaub was able to take advantage in the passing game. That won’t be the case in 2014. Houston looks to be a defensive focused team this season squeaking out close victories. If I spend a late first rounder on a player I want someone that will deliver big games. The injury risk combined with a potentially awful offense renders Foster an overvalued player in 2014. I would avoid him unless he falls to the end of the second or early third round.

Undervalued:

Trent Richardson RB COLTS (RB 27 ADP 68) – Before you say it, I already know that Richardson sucked in 2013. He has given no real indication’s that he is any good at all. So what’s he doing on this list? Opportunity! T-Rich is going off the board as an RB 27. A quick scan of the Colts roster reveals no real backup plan. Ahmad Bradshaw is an injury waiting to happen any time he gets in the game. There is boom potential with Richardson in 2014 if he somehow gets his act together. The acquisition cost is low enough that if he busts it’s no harm no foul. This is the type of player that can make a season for owners savvy enough to grab him for their RB3 spot.

WR POSITION

Overvalued:









Andre Johnson WR HOU (WR12 ADP35) I think I have a bias against older players. Does that make me an ageist? Well the PC police aren’t going to stop me from doling out prophetic fantasy advice. Let’s face it. Andre’ is getting older. In 2013 he had a nice fantasy season particularly in PPR formats where he put up 1400+ yards on 109 Receptions. His 5 TD’s were sub par however considering all those targets. For 2014 Andre enters the season with noodle armed Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Fitzy has no arm and is likely to get Andre killed this season. With a bad QB situation plus advancing age, AJ is being drafted way too high. The injury risk is high with this player and I can’t see any scenario where he accumulates WR1 numbers. I admit I may be a bit biased here because I just traded Andre away in my dynasty league but I say based on limited upside, Andre is not worth the WR12 price tag.

Undervalued:

Jeremy Maclin WR PHI (WR 27 ADP 74) The hatred for Jeremy Maclin in the fantasy prognosticating community is strong. According to Fantasy Pro’s 68% of their Fantasy Experts rank Maclin WORSE then his current ADP. I couldn’t disagree more. The Eagles chose to re-sign Maclin and let D-Jax go this offseason. I’ve always been a believer in Maclin’s talent. His issue has been his health. Maclin is going off the board as a WR27 which makes for a middling WR3 in most formats. I see his season going one of two ways. Either he emerges as the primary weapon in Chip Kelly’s explosive offense and puts up low end WR1 numbers, or he goes down with another ACL injury and we all write him off forever. This is exactly the type of risk I like to take in the later rounds of the fantasy draft. **Warning I had a similar outlook for Danny Amendola last season and it came back to bite me. ***Caveat – I also had DeSean Jackson as a breakout candidate last season and that worked out – so there’s that.

TE POSITION





Overvalued:





Antonio Gates TE SD (TE13 ADP 134) – Big name players often wind up over drafted in their waning seasons. I almost went with Jason Witten (TE5 ADP55) here but it’s hard to argue with the consistency that a Witten delivers. Gates on the other hand is years removed from fantasy relevance. He is sharing snaps with a younger and more athletic/promising prospect in Ladarius Green (Sleeper Alert!). Gates has those foot issues that have never really gone away. This is a classic case of a player being overdrafted by Fantasy Noobs that have no idea what they are doing. The Fantasy Pro’s experts agree with over 86% saying that Gates at TE13 is a reach. Avoid this player completely in 2014.

Undervalued:





Delanie Walker TE TEN (TE22 ADP 208) Walker is basically a guy that is going as one of the last backup TE’s in 12 team redraft leagues. Walker had a mini breakout season in 2013 with 60 receptions and 6TD’s. Those numbers aren’t all that different from players going in the bottom half of the TE1 rankings. Martellus Bennett (TE12 ADP 127) for example had 65 receptions and 5 TD’s and he is going off the board 100 picks earlier then Walker. I like Walker as a serviceable backup TE with top 12 potential.

Who are your overvalued/Undervalued players in 2014? Take a look at the Fantasypros ADP data and let us know who and why.