The New Voice publishes monthly updates on the State of the Democratic Primary, covering major news, power rankings, notable shifts, changes, and policies for your information. In addition, we’ve put together for your viewing ease a spreadsheet covering debate qualifications, national polling, early state polling, and fundraising numbers. This spreadsheet is updated roughly once a week. You can access it here.

The New Voice’s Democratic Primary Power Rankings

1. Bernie Sanders (+2)

While Biden still tops the polls nationally, Sanders has a far more consistent showing in every factor of the race. He leads in fundraising and donors, is at the top or near it in every early voting state, and has won numerous endorsements, including key progressive ones that cement his status as the progressive champion over Elizabeth Warren. In the final stretch before Iowa, Sanders is positioned to finally become the frontrunner.

2. Joe Biden (-1)

The long-time leader has finally begun giving a strong performance. Biden has outraised his personal best, maintained a strong national lead, as well as several early states. However, the war of attrition waged by his opponents have finally begun wearing way his once invulnerable status, like Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and even Yang and Klobuchar, give stronger and stronger showings. Biden is a serious player in this game, but he grows relatively weaker day by day.

3. Elizabeth Warren (-1)

Warren started off the quarter on fire, surpassing Biden once nationally in mid-October. By late-November, she had fallen once again below Sanders, and now has found herself caught vying for the progressive vote with Sanders and the college-educated vote with Buttigieg. Still, she holds a strong coalition in double digits, both nationally and in many key early states.

4. Pete Buttigieg (-)

Like Warren, Buttigieg has been rising this quarter. He once again outraised Joe Biden, and continues to hold commanding numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire. While his performance on the debate stage this month wasn’t stellar, he continues to prove he is not to be trifled with, and as the first states begin to cast their votes, he stands to gain substantial delegates.

5. Andrew Yang (+2)

It was a close call to put Yang above Klobuchar, given that she has qualified for the January debate stage and he has not, but he wins the fifth position on our list due to his extraordinary fundraising prowess, as well as a remarkable debate performance this month. Yang does look unlikely to gather enough polls to qualify for the January debate (perhaps due to a lack of polls as he says), but his investment in Iowa and New Hampshire may give him a boost regardless of his presence in January.

6. Amy Klobuchar (-1)

Klobuchar’s campaign is still simply lackluster. She shows up strong at the debate podium, but outside of that is unable to generate media interest. Her fundraising has similarly been wanting. The five-person stage in January may give her the opportunity to win voters from Biden and Buttigieg, and make a strong showing in Iowa where she has polled the best.

7. Michael Bloomberg (New entry)

We’ve cautiously ranked Bloomberg on 7th this month. It is difficult to analyze how he fares with the Democratic electorate due to the unusual nature of his campaign. However, he has managed substantial poll numbers and has invested north of $150 million in advertising. Only time will tell whether his gambit will pay dividends.

8. Cory Booker (+1)

It is difficult to place 8-10 on the rankings, due to the relatively low chance any of these candidates will make a resurgence. However, Booker ranks 8th due to the general consistency of his campaign, his tiny lead in the polls over Gabbard and Steyer, as well as hints that this is his best fundraising quarter to date.

9. Tom Steyer (-1)

Steyer did make the debate stage in December, but whether that matters is up for debate, as he was a near non-factor. His pitch has not been received well by voters, and his lack of donors and polling means that his only path forward is to continue spending from his personal account, which cannot match those of Bloomberg. Steyer’s campaign genuinely looks like it is hitting its end.

10. Tulsi Gabbard (-)

While Gabbard has a small and dedicated base, her controversial status within the Democratic party will prevent her from winning solid shares of the electorate. Her low fundraising and polling numbers this late in the campaign do not spell good news for her, and it is only a matter of time before her campaign must come to an end.

Updates from the Campaign Trail

December Debate

December’s stage was the smallest thus far, with a mere seven candidates earning podiums: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Warren, and Yang. Occurring a day after the impeachment of President Donald Trump, the night was generally less frantic with fewer candidates vying for limited speaking time. Buttigieg endured multiple attacks as a newly risen threat, while Biden, Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, and Yang all had generally good nights. Tom Steyer failed to make an impression yet again.

You can read New Voice writer Sasha Rieser’s full coverage of the sixth Democratic debate here.

FEC Fourth Quarter Fundraising Totals

December 31st marked the end of 2019’s fourth FEC quarter. In general, Democrats saw a surge of fundraising, led by Bernie Sanders’ phenomenal $34.5 million haul from 1.8 million individual donors, averaging $18 each. Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden raised $24.7 million and $22.7 million respectively, lagging behind Sanders but both outperforming their third-quarter efforts. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren raised $21.2 million after a last-minute plea, falling short of her third-quarter totals. Unexpectedly, Andrew Yang far overshot the $9.9 million he raised last quarter, hitting $16.5 million in the fourth quarter. Tulsi Gabbard announced her campaign had raised $3.4 million.

These fundraising numbers show a strong state of the race at the moment. Sanders is on a strong rebound and has shown hints of his 2016 prowess. Buttigieg and Biden maintain their steady courses, while Warren is still a strong contender, but has fallen from her peak. Yang, who has consistently outraised himself each quarter, is on an upward trajectory that could spell good news for his campaign.

Further fundraising total announcements will give a clearer picture of the financial state of the Democratic primary.

General State of the Democratic Primary

In sharp contrast with November, December proved to be a month of stability, with shakeups to the field at its beginning and end.

Kamala Harris, Steve Bullock, and Joe Sestak exited the race over the course of December’s first three days, while Julián Castro withdrew his candidacy at the beginning of January. For the first time since the 2020 race began, there are more withdrawn candidates than running (14 running, 15 withdrawn).

The month served to settle the turmoil of 2019 more than anything. Biden retained his frontrunner status, while Bernie rebounded from various issues throughout the year to end strong. Warren has climbed back into contention and now settles in comfortable double digits just below Sanders. Buttigieg still is unable to consistently crack double digits nationally but maintains leading or near-leading numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Klobuchar and Yang were both able to generate interest and make strong showings across the board. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has outspent every one of his opponents and is investing heavily in states after the first four contests. While he didn’t qualify for the debate stage this month, Booker still has funds and has spent much of his time campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. For these four, time will tell if they can clear a path to the nomination.

For Steyer, Gabbard, Delaney, Bennet, Patrick, and Williamson, January and February will mark the end of the road. On February 3rd, we have Iowa. On the 11th, New Hampshire, Nevada on the 22nd, and South Carolina on the 29th. More and more voters will be tuning in now, and the state of the race is likely to shape up solidly in these next two months. For more political coverage, stay updated for the next article in this series and join The New Voice’s political staff for a live analysis chat of the Democratic Debate on January 14th.

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