USC 7 Wins (Over -140, Under +120)

Clay Helton and JT Daniels look to take a step forward in their second season together. The offense expects to improve with a season under Daniels’ belt and the addition of OC Graham Harrell. Look for Daniels to have an increase in attempts with the heavy passing attack the Trojans will deploy. He has a trio of potential targets in WRs Michael Pittman Jr, Tyler Vaughns and Amon St. Brown. The defense can be a concern as they rank 118th in returning production. Other than Houston Jr, there are a lot of question marks with this defense that struggled to produce turnovers last season.

The Trojans have a tough non-conference schedule with hosting Fresno State and then traveling to BYU and Notre Dame. They will win against Fresno but then drop the remaining two. At BYU will be a pick ‘em and they will be 10 point underdogs to ND. Zach Wilson, BYU QB, can carve up the USC defense and pulling out a win at South Bend is unlikely. Given their 1-2 non-conference record, they will need to win six conference games to push. In conference play, six out of nine games will be within a six- point spread. Two wins will be needed for the Trojans to surpass their win total and they’ll get these when they host Utah and Oregon. Expect them to be dogs in each of these games and lose close games. Also, USC will have to travel to Washington where they will be 10-point underdogs and another loss is expected. Therefore, they will need to win the remaining six conference games and that is unlikely.

The Pick: Under 7 (+120). The Trojans schedule does not leave any wiggle room. With BYU, ND, Wash, Utah and Oregon on the schedule, the temperature will continue to rise on Helton’s hot seat.

Washington 9.5 Wins (Over -120, Under +100)

The Huskies are significantly affected by attrition this offseason. They rank last in returning defensive production and will have a new transfer QB under center in Jacob Eason. Additionally, Ahmed will be replacing Gaskins, the all-time leading rusher for the Huskies. The offensive line should give Eason solid protection throughout the season, so it will be on him to take advantage. Something he has yet to do at Georgia before transferring. The defense will be an unknown heading into the season, so the win total could rely on their play.

Regression could be in store for the Huskies with all the turnover at key positions. There are three road games where the effects of attrition will be seen: BYU, Stanford and Arizona. Previous Washington teams would have had no issues winning tough road games, but this year’s squad will. Without experience at QB and LB, road games will be problematic for them. The schedule is favorable drawing Utah, Oregon, USC and WSU at home. Factoring in regression and the unknown defense, going 2-2 in these games is probable.

The Pick: Under 9.5 (+100). Three straight seasons of 10 or more wins will come to an end with all the turnover at key areas. The current starters, especially Eason, do not instill confidence in this team.

Utah 9.5 Wins (Over +130, Under -150)

Utah returns key players at all positions which slates them 15th in S&P+ returning production. Tyler Huntley is coming off a season where he led the Utes to the Pac 12 Championship game. Unfortunately, they lost 10-3 to Washington. The expectations for this team is to be in the Pac 12 Championship game again, but hopefully, a different result.

The schedule is not daunting for Utah this season. There are three questionable games and that would explain the public and sharps backing this win total over. All three of these games come on the road at BYU, USC and Washington. Winning at least one would set them up to surpass the over. However, there is a more valuable play on the board: Utah to win the Pac 12. It is in the range of +250-500 depending on the book. No teams in the Pac 12 South are a concern for Utah so even if there is a slip up, they can win the South with nine wins.

The Pick: Back Utah to win the Pac 12 at +250 or better. This will allow for a potential hedge opportunity in the Championship game. Finding 10 wins on their schedule is feasible, so I would not sway someone off of over 9.5 at positive odds.

Back the Ducks?

The October 19th meeting in Washington could decide the Pac 12 North winner. Oregon has a difficult schedule ahead of them so playing the over 8.5 win total would be a season long roller-coaster. If you are looking to play the 8.5, I would wait to back the Ducks as road dogs against Washington since they will have plus odds. The juiced over 8.5 (-155) does not have much value.



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