Higgs boson: Ratio≈2.3; Luminosity≈10 fb-1.

Higgs physics will not be terribly exciting this year, with only a modest improvement of the couplings measurements expected.

Ratio≈2.3; Luminosity≈10 fb-1. Higgs physics will not be terribly exciting this year, with only a modest improvement of the couplings measurements expected. tth: Ratio≈4; Luminosity≈6 fb-1.

Nevertheless, for certain processes involving the Higgs boson the improvement may be a bit faster. In particular, the theoretically very important process of Higgs production in association with top quarks (tth) was on the verge of being detected in Run-1. If we're lucky, this year's data may tip the scale and provide an evidence for a non-zero top Yukawa couplings.

Ratio≈4; Luminosity≈6 fb-1. Nevertheless, for certain processes involving the Higgs boson the improvement may be a bit faster. In particular, the theoretically very important process of Higgs production in association with top quarks (tth) was on the verge of being detected in Run-1. If we're lucky, this year's data may tip the scale and provide an evidence for a non-zero top Yukawa couplings. 300 GeV Higgs partner: Ratio≈2.7 Luminosity≈9 fb-1.

Not much hope for new scalars in the Higgs family this year.

Ratio≈2.7 Luminosity≈9 fb-1. Not much hope for new scalars in the Higgs family this year. 800 GeV stops: Ratio≈10; Luminosity≈2 fb-1.

800 GeV is close to the current lower limit on the mass of a scalar top partner decaying to a top quark and a massless neutralino. In this case, one should remember that backgrounds also increase at 13 TeV, so the progress will be a bit slower than what the above number suggests. Nevertheless, this year we will certainly explore new parameter space and make the naturalness problem even more severe. Similar conclusions hold for a fermionic top partner.

Ratio≈10; Luminosity≈2 fb-1. 800 GeV is close to the current lower limit on the mass of a scalar top partner decaying to a top quark and a massless neutralino. In this case, one should remember that backgrounds also increase at 13 TeV, so the progress will be a bit slower than what the above number suggests. Nevertheless, this year we will certainly explore new parameter space and make the naturalness problem even more severe. Similar conclusions hold for a fermionic top partner. 3 TeV Z' boson: Ratio≈18; Luminosity≈1.2 fb-1.

Getting interesting! Limits on Z' bosons decaying to leptons will be improved very soon; moreover, in this case background is not an issue.

Ratio≈18; Luminosity≈1.2 fb-1. Getting interesting! Limits on Z' bosons decaying to leptons will be improved very soon; moreover, in this case background is not an issue. 1.4 TeV gluino: Ratio≈30; Luminosity≈0.7 fb-1.

If all goes well, better limits on gluinos can be delivered by the end of the summer!

Last night, for the first time, the LHC collided particles at the center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Routine collisions should follow early in June. The plan is to collect 5-10 inverse femtobarn (fb-1) of data before winter comes, adding to the 25 fb-1 from Run-1. It's high time dust off your Madgraph and tool up for what may be the most exciting time in particle physics in this century. But when exactly should we start getting excited? When should we start friending LHC experimentalists on facebook? When is the time to look over their shoulders for a glimpse of of gluinos popping out of the detectors. One simple way to estimate the answer is to calculate what is the luminosity when the number of particles produced at 13 TeV will exceed that produced during the whole Run-1. This depends on the ratio of the production cross sections at 13 and 8 TeV which is of course strongly dependent on the particle's mass and production mechanism. Moreover, the LHC discovery potential will also depend on how the background processes change, and on a host of other experimental issues. Nevertheless, let us forget for a moment about the fine-print, and calculate theof 13 and 8 TeV cross sections for a few particles popular among the general public. This will give us a rough estimate of the thresholdwhen things should get interesting.In summary, the progress will be very fast for new heavy particles. In particular, for gluon-initiated production of TeV-scale particles already the first inverse femtobarn may bring us into a new territory. For lighter particles the progress will be slower, especially when backgrounds are difficult. On the other hand, precision physics, such as the Higgs couplings measurements, is unlikely to be in the spotlight this year.