When Sean McDermott’s Buffalo Bills defense line up across from the Panthers on Sunday, Cam Newton will likely have a strange sense of deja vu. After all, the system that McDermott is running in Buffalo bears a striking resemblance to that which he ran as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator for six seasons. Given the familiarity that the Panthers’ coaches have with McDermott’s system, they should be aware of how to go about attacking it. However, for those without inside knowledge, examining how the Jets fared this past weekend should provide some clues about how the Panthers can be successful.

All Boxed In

The Bills, like the Panthers, run a zone blitz defense for the most part. Like almost all zone defenses, these schemes allow for relatively easy separation underneath but look to generate turnovers and sacks by disguising coverages and pressures in order to confuse the quarterback.

Such defenses are especially effective when playing with a lead, or when the opponent falls behind the chains and has to look to push the ball down the field. In order to generate such situations, McDermott often looks to stack the box on early downs, especially against tight formations.

Here, the Jets line up with two tight ends on the line of scrimmage, and the Bills respond with an eight man box. As a result, the Bills are able to stuff the run without much difficulty to set up a third and medium. While second-and-7 is commonly considered a ‘rushing down’, if the Panthers want to avoid facing long third downs, they will need to avoid trying to run when McDermott looks to load the box. Once again, this is a matter of taking what the defense is giving you.

Risky Business

McDermott in particular enjoys bringing blitzers from all over the field while using a mixture of zone and man to force the quarterback to hold on to the ball. This makes diagnosing defenses pre-snap extremely difficult, thus placing a lot of responsibility on the quarterback to read the plays post-snap. Given that many quarterbacks struggle in this area, it should be no surprise the success that McDermott has had.

However, offensive coordinators can help their quarterbacks by designing and calling plays which limit what McDermott is able to disguise. An easy way of doing this is by using a lot of three and four-wide formations, as these force blitzers to come from further away (and therefore take longer to ‘get home’) or to declare themselves pre-snap by moving off their supposed receiver.

In the above play, the Jets go three wide, and this means that the safety blitz is unable to get to the quarterback before Josh McCown can make the throw. However, this play could have been further improved by using the tight end and running back to stretch the defense horizontally. This would force the two inside linebackers to push out towards the flat and so open up the middle of the field more. On this particular play, that would likely have meant the receiver could have run after the catch, rather than having to slide to avoid the hit from the linebacker.

Likewise, by using faster receivers to stretch the field vertically, offenses can force the zone defenders deeper up the field to cover the running receiver, and in turn open up the underneath receptions. By only running underneath routes (something the Panthers have been guilty of in the past), offenses allow the zone defenders to key in on the underneath routes, as happens in the following play:

Additionally, zone defenses rely heavily on rapid pursuit to the ball in order to minimize run after catch potential. When done well, it can look a lot like the following:

However, rapid pursuit always runs the risk of becoming over-pursuit. If the offense can get the defense running to a presumed screen or checkdown, then a throw away from the pursuit can lead to a big play. The Panthers showed an ability to pull this type of play off against the 49ers when the defense assumed a pass to McCaffrey in the flats left Stewart with a ton of room to run for a score.

What Not to Do

While the Jets provided some examples of how the Bills’ defense can be exploited, they provided many more examples of things not to do! A common issues for the Jets offense was recognizing how many blitzers the Bills were bringing, and where they would be coming from. As a result, the Bills were frequently able to bluff the Jets into max protection, only to then drop seven into coverage.

This wasn’t aided by the Jets’ struggles pass protecting throughout the game. The Bills do have a very good defensive line, but it should be assumed that the Panthers’ offensive line will fare better. On the following play, the running back does get open against the linebacker but McCown, under pressure, has already got rid of the ball short of the sticks.

Additionally, due to the speed with which the Bills defense pursue to the ball, and the propensity to bring blitzers from all over the field, plays which took a long time to develop were rarely successful. While play-action passes can be effective in sucking the linebackers in, these are best done from the shotgun as fake handoffs allow for blitzers to get home from the back side, as below;

Similarly, slow developing screens, such as the one shown below, allow the zone defenders to pursue to the ball for a minimal gain, although it definitely won’t be successful if the back doesn’t catch the pass.

Mistakes such as these are relatively easy to avoid, but McDermott’s use of mixed coverages is a problem for all but the best play designers. Briefly put, the best way to combat such coverages is to maximize the number of potential coverages each play can attack. While it is hard to succinctly describe such plays, examples of the issues that can arise from not doing so are far easier to come by.

Here, McCown reads zone and so the play called looks to use vertical routes to force defenders up the field while sitting down a number of defenders underneath. However, with half the field playing man coverage, McCown’s attempt to drop the ball of against zone doesn’t work out. Routes such as slants and posts can be effective against both man and zone and should be expected to be used heavily against the Bills’ mixed coverages.

It’s All in the Mind

“The onus is still on me to find ways to get the right people the ball and knowing that whatever the play call is, I’m still on a constant battle — internal for me — to try to gain coach’s trust, as well as my teammates’ trust, just like as if I was a rookie. Knowing I will make the right decision and most importantly, prove to myself that I’m capable of doing certain things that I see other quarterbacks doing that I envision myself being at my peak best and knowing that when this offense is at its best, we could care less if the defense that we’re playing is at their best, too.” -Panthers quarterback Cam Newton

A large reason why McDermott’s defensive schemes have been able to be so successful is that they force a lot of responsibility onto individual offensive players, especially the quarterback. If the Panthers want to be successful against this Bills defense then they are going to have to look to Cam Newton to do much of the heavy lifting.

As mentioned earlier, players will get open against zone defense, but the windows are often narrow and it can be unclear where the ball needs to go pre-snap. If Cam can recognize the open man and not hesitate to throw the ball when the receiver does get open then the Panthers will have a good chance of being successful. On the above play, there are two open receivers early, but McCown hesitates and when he does make the throw, the defenders have already closed on the ball.

Conversely, the mixed coverages will make it hard to recognize the correct read pre-snap, and Newton will need to make sure he doesn’t ‘jump’ on what he expects to be an open receiver, but instead have the patience to recognize the correct receiver and to allow him to get open.

On the first play below, McCown fails to recognize the safety in man coverage with the tight end and so expects the tight end to be uncovered, resulting in only a short gain when the coverage is not what he anticipated. However, on the second play, he recognizes the drop-back zone and has the patience to wait for the receiver to get open in a window down the field.

Finally, Newton needs to take the yardage when it is given to him. This defense looks to capitalize of third-and-longs and so these must be avoided wherever possible. Obviously, minimizing mistakes is always beneficial, but by picking up gains of four or so yards on earlier downs, Newton will be able to keep the chains moving and prevent the Bills’ pass rushers from being able to pin their ears back knowing Newton has to hold onto the ball.

These early tests for the Panthers are ultimately ones that they should pass. The Panthers run a very similar defensive scheme to the Bills, only with a far more talented roster. Beating the Bills should be seen as exactly what it is, a home win against a rookie head coach with a roster than is not expected to make the playoffs. With that said, as with the defensive performance against the 49ers, an emphatic (and crucially consistent) performance should support the idea that the Panthers can re-emerge as a genuine Super Bowl contender in 2017. Now it the offense’s turn to show just how good they can be.