Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions' frayed ties with the president could create an opening for other Republicans to make a play for the Senate seat. | Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images Elections Alabama GOP: Sessions not guaranteed to win back his old seat The deposed attorney general would be the front-runner, and he remains popular in the state, but Trump remains a big X factor.

Republicans are certain they can win back the Alabama Senate seat they lost in spectacular fashion last year. They just aren’t sure whether Jeff Sessions is the one to do it.

Sessions’ name surfaced as a potential candidate immediately after he was dumped as attorney general this month. But he could be dogged by his strained relationship with President Donald Trump, who remains wildly popular in Alabama and savaged Sessions throughout his tenure at the Justice Department.


Though Sessions would be the clear front-runner if he runs, his frayed ties with Trump could create an opening for other Republicans to make a play for the seat — and cause a messy primary similar to the one that cost the party the seat last year, several Alabama Republicans tracking the situation said.

POLITICO interviewed more than a dozen GOP operatives and potential candidates in the state about the prospect of a Sessions comeback bid and the forecast for the Senate race against Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.). They agreed that Sessions remains overwhelmingly popular in his home state after representing it for nearly two decades in the Senate.

But the Republicans were split on whether the 71-year-old Sessions would take the plunge, and whether he would clear the GOP field if he did. The belief, at least among some Republicans in the state, that Sessions might not be a gimme for the seat shows just how tumultuous the past three years have been for the Alabama political icon: From coming out as Trump’s earliest and most prominent campaign supporter, to being tapped as the nation’s most powerful law enforcement official, and now, potentially, to a difficult campaign for his old seat.

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One Republican operative said he wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump get behind a different candidate if Sessions run.

It's unclear what Sessions himself is planning to do. One source familiar with his thinking said the ex-senator is “absolutely considering” running again. Yet Sessions has yet to say or do anything publicly to hint that he’s leaning in that direction.

Several potential Republican candidates indicated that a Sessions bid would not alter their plans. They are closely monitoring his actions, however, for any clues about whether he’ll run. The Alabama seat is easily the GOP’s ripest opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat in 2020.

Rep. Bradley Byrne has taken steps to secure support and has publicly professed interest in the race for months. A spokesman for Byrne, Seth Morrow, said the third-term congressman is taking a “serious look” at the race, and added Sessions’ consideration “doesn't change Congressman Byrne's plans one bit."

State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh is actively considering a run, and has signaled his plans to colleagues in the state. Rep. Mo Brooks, who ran for the seat in 2017, is often mentioned as a potential candidate, and some donors have reached out to newly elected Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth about running.

Marsh told POLITICO he is weighing his options and hoped to talk to Sessions before the end of the year. Marsh said he didn’t feel a sense of urgency about the race this early, and was weighing several factors, including Sessions.

“I've always had a good relationship [with Sessions] and I would have to think real hard if I would run against him if he were to seek it again,” Marsh said.

While several GOP primaries in other states this year became contests over which candidate was the bigger supporter of Trump, multiple Republicans in Alabama said Sessions would be a force whether or not the bad blood between the two continues.

Terry Lathan, chairwoman of the state Republican Party, said their contentious relationship would be an “unusual circumstance” if Sessions were to run. The former senator remains “beloved” in Alabama, Lathan said, but the state’s voters also overwhelmingly approve of Trump. She said supporting Trump and Sessions are not “exclusive of each other.”

“The president is highly appreciated for his conservative policy. He's just slaying it as far as we're concerned,” Lathan said. “But I also know how much people admire and respect Jeff Sessions."

Lathan predicted that if Sessions runs, the other potential Republican candidates might reevaluate.

“There could be a real reset,” she said, “and folks who were thinking about running could take a second look.”

Clay Ryan, chief lobbyist for the University of Alabama and a veteran of the state’s politics, described Sessions’ situation as the main force that will shape the primary. He said Sessions holds an “unofficial first right of first refusal” on the race.

“I think there are a number of potential candidates that will want to understand what Attorney General Sessions' intentions are with respect to the race before they make any decisions,” Ryan said.

Republicans in Alabama are mixed on whether he will, or should, mount a bid. GOP supporters note that Sessions has always enjoyed legislating more than campaigning. Skeptics point to his age, and say his tenure as attorney general likely represents the apex of his career.

Republicans are desperate to avoid a repeat of 2017, when Roy Moore defeated appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the primary, then went on to lose to Jones amid accusations that he preyed upon teenage girls. Republicans are confident they’ll take the seat absent another nightmare scenario.

“Too early to prognosticate on ... Sessions’ plans. Republican will win the seat so long as that republican is not named Roy Moore,” Strange told POLITICO in an email.

Trump‘s soured view of the former Alabama senator hasn't hurt Sessions' standing there, said Republican strategist Chris Brown.

“They love Trump here but don't pick on our boy Jeff Sessions,” Brown said.

But other Alabama Republicans think Trump would back another candidate over Sessions, which could create a nasty race, said Steve Raby, an Alabama Republican strategist.

“If Sessions wants to run I expect them [the White House] to pick them a candidate and bash Sessions for a year-and-a-half,” Raby said. “If Jeff is good in the way he approaches it, we will defend one of our own.”

Republicans operatives in Washington are eager to avoid that scenario, and hope that any potential animosity between Trump and Sessions is cleared up before he decides on a run.

For members of the Alabama congressional delegation, a shot at a Senate seat is especially tempting now that the alternative is toiling away in the House minority. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) was also seen as a potential candidate, but Republicans now doubt he will run after he was elected to chair the House Republican Policy Committee last week.

Brooks, meanwhile, didn’t shoot down the idea of running against Jones.

“Too many uncertainties,” Brooks said in a text message. “Senate? My intention right now is run for reelection to the House."

Marsh has told fellow Alabama lawmakers that he would step down from his leadership spot in the next two years, a move Republicans see as a signal that Marsh is plotting out a timeline for a Senate run.

Marsh told POLITICO in an interview he is taking a look at running against Jones, but hedged on whether he would challenge Sessions if he ran. Marsh said his combination of business and political experience would make him an obvious ally to Trump in the Senate.

“You have to look at a pathway to victory and see if you can get there,” Marsh said. “I don't want to get into a race I don't have any chance to win.”

Some Republican donors and political figures have also been reaching out to Ainsworth, who was elected to be the state’s lieutenant governor last week, to urge him to consider launching a bid, according to a source familiar with the conversations.

Jones became a top GOP target the minute he won the Senate seat. Alabama Democrats had hoped Jones‘ victory in 2017 would energize the party going into this year’s midterm elections. But Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox, a Democrat, was handily defeated by incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey, and Bob Vance, the Democratic nominee for the state Supreme Court, lost decisively to Republican Tom Parker.

Still, Jones is keeping his political operation running in preparation for a reelection campaign. Throughout 2018, he used his valuable fundraising email list to help other Democratic senators up for reelection. He remains close to Giles Perkins, his 2017 campaign chairman, and Democratic strategist Joe Trippi is also in the loop. Jones’ has over $2 million going into 2019, according to campaign finance filings, and he paid $26,000 to a polling firm earlier this year.

“I don’t think you can ever count Doug Jones out,” said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster based in Alabama.