New California primary polls show closer race than expected

From left, Democratic presidential candidates, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.; and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., participate in a Democratic presidential primary debate Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2020, in Las Vegas. Seven casino-resorts are among 200 caucus locations statewide that will host the presidential caucuses on Saturday. less From left, Democratic presidential candidates, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.; and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., participate in a Democratic presidential primary debate ... more Photo: John Locher, Associated Press Photo: John Locher, Associated Press Image 1 of / 8 Caption Close New California primary polls show closer race than expected 1 / 8 Back to Gallery

A Public Policy Public Institute of California poll from earlier this week indicated that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is running away with the upcoming California Democratic presidential primary, and two new polls also confirm that Sanders is leading — but not by as much as one might expect.

Sanders, who won the popular vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire, has been surging nationally in recent weeks. The PPIC poll showed Sanders leading the Democratic field in California with 32 percent support from poll respondents, trouncing the next-closest candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, at 14 percent support.

Polls released later in the week from Monmouth University and the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion also show Sanders leading, but by single digits in both. It's difficult to draw conclusions across different polls, but one important thing to keep an eye on is the race for second place, specifically who is crossing 15 percent support.

Here are the results of both:

Monmouth (408 participants, margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent):

1. Bernie Sanders, 24 percent

2. Joe Biden, 17 percent

3. Mike Bloomberg, 13 percent

4. Elizabeth Warren, 10 percent

5. Pete Buttigieg, nine percent

All others at five percent support or less.

UMass (450 participants, margin of error of +/- 6.7 percent):

1. Bernie Sanders, 24 percent

2. Elizabeth Warren, 16 percent

3. Joe Biden, 13 percent

4 (tie). Pete Buttigieg, 12 percent

4 (tie). Mike Bloomberg, 12 percent

6. Amy Klobuchar, seven percent

All others at five percent support or less.

In California, a candidate can only receive delegates if he or she reaches a 15 percent threshold, either in individual congressional districts or statewide. The polls indicate that only Sanders is in a position to comfortably hit this threshold in most districts.

"California is the big prize on Super Tuesday," Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute said. "As the poll currently stands, it’s possible that only two or three candidates reach viability in any given congressional district. That would enable Sanders to rack up half the delegates or more while only earning one-quarter of the total vote."

Warren, Biden, Buttiegieg and Bloomberg are all right around the 15 percent benchmark, with the latter three presumably splitting the vote of moderate California Democrats. If the vote remains split on Super Tuesday, Sanders could be in a position to win an overwhelming majority of the state's delegates, perhaps giving him an insurmountable national lead for the remainder of the race.

California votes on March 3.

Eric Ting is an SFGATE digital reporter. Email: eric.ting@sfgate.com | Twitter:@_ericting