Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS

Background: The Midwest League was one of the most fascinating environments in 2017 – or, perhaps, in recent memory. Several prospects have the potential to develop into perennial All-Star caliber talent at the big league level, including a trio that sport an impressive bloodline: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who posted a 154 wRC+, Bo Bichette, who tallied a ridiculous 201 wRC+, and, of course, Fernando Tatis’ kid. San Diego acquired Tatis the Younger from the White Sox in the ill-gotten – at least in Chicago’s perspective – James Shields deal in early June two years ago. Standing an imposing 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, the Padres’ heir apparent at the shortstop position hit an aggregate .273/.311/.432 as a 17-year-old between the organization’s affiliates in the Arizona Summer and Northwest Leagues two years ago.

Last season, though, Tatis’ offensive production skyrocketed through the roof as he moved into full season action. Appearing in 117 games with the Fort Wayne TinCaps, the young shortstop slugged .281/.390/.520 with 26 doubles, seven triples, and 21 homeruns. He also swiped an impressive 29 bags, more than half of his old man’s big league career total. His production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by an incredible 54%.

San Diego, throwing caution to the wind, pushed the young slugger up to the Texas League at the end of August. And after going 2-for-17 in his first five games, he quickly found his footing over his remaining nine contests; he went 12-for-38 en route to hitting .316/.350/.421.

Projection: Not only is he in the running for one of the top hitters in the minor leagues, but Tatis belongs in the conversation as among the game’s best overall prospects. Playing in a neutral hitting environment, Tatis showcased above-average to plus-power, an even better eye at the plate, solid contact skills, and above-average speed. And each of those skills came shining through against vastly older – and more experienced – competition. Defensively speaking, he manned shortstop like a sieve acting as a dam.

So how does his offensive production stack up, historically speaking? Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 18-year-old hitters to post at least a 145 wRC+ with a double-digit walk rate in the Midwest League: Mike Trout, Carlos Correa, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis’ ISO: .239. Guerrero’s ISO: .163. Trout’s ISO: .163.

Tatis is a perennial MVP candidate, perhaps a once-in-a-generation caliber talent. I’d be surprised if he remains at shortstop. According to Clay Davenport’s metrics, Tatis Jr. was a -16 defender at the position last season. He could very much settle in as a third baseman, a la his old man.

Ceiling: 6.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

2. MacKenzie Gore, LHP

Background: Between 1975 and 1997 there was 11 professional players that called Whiteville High School their alma mater, including two first round selections (eight-year big league veteran Tommy Greene and Pat Lennon), a second round pick (George Threadgill), and one third round pick (Christopher Threadgill). But since then, though, the school’s pipeline to the minor leagues all but dried up. That is, until the San Diego Padres tabbed big lefty MacKenzie Gore with the third overall pick last June. Gore, who stands an imposing 6-foot-3 and a projectable 180 pounds, turned in a dominant, videogame-esque campaign during his senior season in 2017: he went a perfect 11-0 for Head Coach Brett Harwood, throwing 74.1 innings with a mindboggling 158 strikeouts en route to tallying an absurd, barely-there 0.19 ERA. And just because it’s worth noting: the big southpaw averaged a Roger Clemens-esque 19.13 strikeout per nine innings last season heading into the draft (or nearly 15 strikeouts per high school game). The Padres signed the budding ace to a franchise record $6.7 million pact, slightly over the recommended slot bonus. And just a handful of innings into his professional career, Gore’s making that look like one helluva team-friendly deal. The teenage superstar spent his debut squaring off against the vastly inferior competition in the Arizona Summer League. He would make seven brief appearances, none of which extended beyond four innings, throwing 21.1 innings of work with a whopping 34 punch outs against just seven free passes. He averaged 14.3 strikeouts and just three walks every nine innings. That strikeout rate, by the way, was essentially the same mark he posted in high school. Gore finished his debut with a 1.27 ERA, a 2.14 FIP, a 2.49 xFIP, and a 0.56 DRA (Deserved Run Average), which is the best available measure for true pitching performance.

Projection: Let’s just jump right into it:

Before last season only seven pitchers – of any age – posted a strikeout percentage of at least 40% in the Arizona Summer League (min. 20 IP): Alejandro Chacin, Brian Irving, Dallas Braden, Danny Duffy, Jacob Dunnington, Tanner Mendonca, and Tyler Gatrell.

That’s some promising name recognition among the group: before injuries ended his career prematurely, Dallas Braden tallied 6.1 fWAR between 2009 and 2010 and Danny Duffy, who signed a five-year, $65 million deal with Kansas City before last season, is one of the best young lefties in baseball. Let’s continue:

Of the aforementioned list of seven pitchers, only two of them – Duffy and Chacin, both having big league experience on their respective resumes – were 18-years-old, like Gore.

Gore, like Duffy, has legitimate front-of-the-rotation caliber potential. Known for his huge leg kick, Gore possesses a power-packed arsenal with solid-average or better control. And despite his age, he’s poised to move quickly. My fingers are firmly crossed in hopes he can navigate his way through the injury nexus because if he does, watch out.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

3. Adrian Morejon, LHP

Background: Handed a hefty $11 million bonus two years ago after defecting from Cuba. Morejon, a slight-framed lefty, originally popped up in the Cuban National Series as a 15-year-old, throwing 24.0 innings with the Huracanes de Mayabeque, recording seven strikeouts and 13 walks en route to tallying a 4.88 ERA. After signing with the Padres, the front office cautiously sent the then-18-year-old to the Northwest League to begin his stateside professional career. But after seven dominant outings, the front office pushed the 6-foot, 165-pound southpaw up to the Midwest League for another six games. Morejon totaled 63.0 innings between both stops, fanning 58 against just 16 free passes. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.86 ERA and a 3.57 FIP.

Projection: Morejon was incredibly dominant during his brief stay with the Tri-City Dust Devils in the Northwest League last season. He issued just three free passes in seven different starts. But his control abandoned him a bit when he got bumped up to the Midwest League. Consider the following little nugget about his numbers in short-season ball last season:

Since 2006, only 12 pitchers – of any age – posted at least 24% strikeout percentage with a 3.0% walk percentage or less in the Northwest League (min. 30 IP). Only one of those pitchers – Adrian Morejon – was under the age of 21; he, of course, accomplished the feat as an 18-year-old.

Morejon’s slight frame causes a bit of concern, but outside of that there’s nothing worrisome about his individual production. And with the way the team has handled top talent, a brief stay in the California League wouldn’t be out of the question for the young lefty in 2018.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

4. Michel Baez, RHP

Background: Part of the Padres’ wild, free-spending ways on the international scene two years ago, Baez was just one of three high profile Cuban players to sign with the team; the other two being Adrian Morejon and Jorge Ona. And despite getting the smallest bonus among his fellow countrymen, Baez’s time in the Midwest League turned an awful lot of heads last season. After a dominant tune-up start in the Arizona Summer League at the start of the year, Baez tossed another 58.2 innings with the Fort Wayne TinCaps, fanning an incredible 82 against just eight free passes. The behemoth 6-foot-8, 220-pound stud finished his time in Low Class A with a 2.45 ERA, a 2.99 FIP, a 2.30 xFIP, and a 3.29 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Projection: That’s a helluva lot of production for a scant $3 million investment, at least in terms of baseball money. Baez has everything one would want in a pitching prospect: height and projectability, a power pitcher’s arsenal, pinpoint accuracy, and plenty of youth on his side. As far as his dominance is concerned, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of pitchers – of any age – to post at least a 30% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage of 4% or less in the Midwest League (min. 50 IP): Casey Fien and Baez. Fien, for what’s it’s worth, has spent eight years in the big leagues and was two years older than Baez during his run in the Midwest League.

One more note: Baez’s strikeout percentage, 36.4%, was six percentage points higher than Fien’s.

He’s another front-of-the-rotation caliber arm developing San Diego’s system.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

5. Franchy Cordero, OF

Background: Not always the most consistent of offensive performers throughout his career – which has contributed to his ability to remain solidly under-the-radar – Cordero’s performance in the Pacific Coast League in 2017 caused a lot of people to stand up and take notice. In 93 games with the El Paso Chihuahuas, the 6-foot-3, 175-pound outfielder battered the Class AAA pitching to the tune of .326/.369/.603 with 21 doubles and career highs in triples (18) and homeruns (17). Cordero also went 15-for-19 in the stolen base department. The Dominican-born outfielder’s overall production, according to Weighted Run Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 46%, the best mark of his six-year professional career. San Diego called the tools-laden prospect up in late May. But the then-22-year-old seemed a bit overmatched; he batted .228/.276/.424. For his career, Cordero is sporting an impressive .281/.337/.434 triple-slash line, belting out 81 doubles, 52 triples, 46 homeruns, and 101 stolen bases.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote in last year’s Handbook when Cordero failed to crack the club’s Top 20 list:

“Moved off of shortstop after some problematic – or complete lack of – defense. Cordero bashed .286/.339/.444 in High Class A and followed that up with an even better showing in Class AA: .306/.356/.478. Production that often puts a player in the team’s Top 20 – except Cordero’s BABIPs (.381 and .401) scream, loudly, that he’s due for a regression.”

I didn’t see this one coming: Cordero’s BABIP in the PCL was an unbelievable .431 last season, a career high. He has the extraordinary talent of repeating abnormally, astronomically high BABIPs. And legging out triples, as well. Cordero’s tallied 34 triples over his two minor league seasons. Simply put, he’s incredibly talented, incredibly underrated. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s the list of 22-year-old hitters to post at least a 140 wRC+ mark in the Pacific Coast League (min. 300 PA): James Loney, Howie Kendrick, Javier Baez, Joc Pederson, and Domingo Santana.

But here’s the impressive part; check out their respective career wRC+ marks during their respective big league careers: 103 (Loney), 107 (Kendrick), 88 (Baez), 115 (Pederson), and 116 (Santana). And with respect to Baez, the Cubs young middle infielder has hovered close to league average status the past two years. The long red flag for Cordero are his atrocious walk rates, which will severely limit his overall ceiling. But he’s a dark horse candidate for National League Rookie of the Year in 2018. You heard it here first.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

6. Anderson Espinoza, RHP

Background: San Diego, in a bit of a controversial swap, acquired the promising right-hander in exchange for All-Star southpaw Drew Pomeranz. The reason for the controversy: Boston, according to a variety of reports, felt that San Diego didn’t provide enough medical information on Pomeranz, who was hit by a rash of injuries immediately after the trade. Ironic or not – or perhaps a bit of organizational karma – but Espinoza missed the entirety of 2017 with a wonky elbow, an injury that eventually forced him under the knife and will likely keep him out through the end of 2018.

Projection: A personal favorite of mine. Here’s what I wrote about the lanky, wispy-thin right-hander in the 2016 Handbook two years ago:

“New Sox General Manager Dave Dombrowski is going to have to write his predecessor Ben Cherington a rather lengthy thank you note for inking the supremely talented hurler. While the data is still rather limited – just under 60 innings of work – Espinoza’s ceiling could be as high as any hurler in the minor leagues, including that of Julio Urias. Equipped with a bazooka for an arm and blessed with what appears to be pinpoint control, Espinoza is likely going to be a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future. Here’s hoping the kid stays healthy.”

And I followed that up with this analysis in last year’s Handbook when I ranked him as the Padres’ top prospect:

“[Perhaps] the most impressive statistic I could rattle off about Espinoza is this:

The lanky right-hander made 25 appearances between his time with Greenville and Fort Wayne. Of those 25 games, Espinoza walked two or fewer batters 21 times.

Again, there are very few young arms in the minors – and maybe even the majors – that could match Espinoza’s potential as a legitimate ace. But potential is just that – potential, not results. He’s going to have to navigate his way through the injury nexus, but he has a chance to be special.”

Here’s hoping for a full recovery.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

7. Cal Quantrill, RHP

Background: Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t the only Padres prospect with famous bloodlines. Cal’s old man, Paul, spent 14 seasons working out of a litany of big league bullpens while earning a trip to the 2001 All-Star game as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. San Diego took a calculated risk in the opening picks of the 2016 draft, selecting the Tommy John-repaired right-hander with the eighth overall selection – despite not throwing a meaningful pitch in more than a year. Quantrill, who made just three starts for Stanford in 2015 before succumbing to the elbow injury, is already knocking on the big league club’s door. After taking the Eric Lauer-approach during his three-stop debut, Quantrill made 14 starts with Lake Elsinore before getting bumped up to San Antonio for another eight games. The 6-foot-2, 165-pound right-hander tossed 116.0 innings, averaging 8.5 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.80 ERA and a 4.06 FIP last season.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Quantrill heading into the 2016 draft:

“Ignoring high school data, which is unreliable at best, we have 129 innings of data to go off of – except that it’s pre-injury data. During his freshman season the big right-hander tossed 110.2 innings – certainly reasonable, far from problematic total for a 19-year-old – while fanning 98, walking 34, and posting a tidy 2.68 ERA. Fantastic, fantastic production from any pitcher – regardless of age – in the PAC12.

Injury-inhibited pitchers like Erick Fedde, Lucas Giolito, Jeff Hoffman were all first rounder picks despite elbow injuries, so it’s very likely Quantrill goes somewhere between picks 15 and 25 come this year’s draft. As far as upside, he looked like a #2/#3-type arm as a freshman – hopefully he makes a full recovery.”

So let’s update that a bit. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only two 22-year-old pitchers posted a strikeout percentage between 23-25% with a walk percentage between 6.5-8.5% in the California League (min. 60 IP): Nolan Sanburn and Eddie Butler, both former polished collegiate arms taken in the earlier rounds of their respective drafts.

I still think there’s a little more growth in his right arm than his production would suggest because of his limited experience. So, again, I’m sticking with the original analysis that he’ll be a #2/#3-type starter.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

Background: Fun Fact Part I: There was only one other 20-year-old stick in the Texas League that bested Urias’ overall production line – Houston’s Kyle Tucker, who 129 wRC+ topped Urias’ 124 wRC+ mark. In other words, it was another very…Urias-like year in 2017. The then-20-year-old middle infielder out from Magdalena de Kino, Mexico, batted a robust .296/.398/.380 with the San Antonio Missions, belting out 20 doubles, four triples, and three homeruns. He also swiped seven bags in 12 total attempts. This, of course, comes on the heels of his dominant showing in High Class A two years ago when he slugged .330/.397/.440 with Lake Elsinore and his original breakout year in 2015 (.299/.388/.335).

Projection: Here’s what I wrote in last year’s book when I ranked him as the club’s eighth best prospect:

“Obviously, Urias has a couple things going against him – mainly his lack of size and a perceived lack of power. But I think it’s important to point out that between May 2nd and July 6th, a span of 58 games, he slugged .339/.412/.449 with an Isolated Power of .110. It’s still a below-average mark, until you consider his age and level of competition.

It’s also equally important to point out that, according to StatCorner.com, once you adjust for Lake Elsinore’s pitcher-friendly park Urias’ overall numbers in High Class A jump to .332/.399/.454 with a .122 ISO. Finally, since 2006 there have been four other 19-year-olds to bash their way through High Class A. Now of those four, three have spent significant time at the big league level. Here’s their respective career wRC+ totals: Bogaerts (102), Russell (93), and Santana (103). Needless to say, but I like Urias’ odds more than the typical person does.

One final thought: according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, Urias has been a stout defender the past couple seasons at second base.”

And, despite an extreme lack of power, Urias’ level of success hasn’t slowed him down one iota – even as he moved into, and easily passed, the minors’ most difficult challenge: Class AA. Outside of owning an above-average, sometimes plus hit tool, Urias also possesses one of the best eyes in the minor leagues; he walked 12.9% of the time last season and roughly 10% in his career – an incredible number given his punch-less bat. Defensively speaking, he remains solid in either middle infield position. So how’s his production stack up against his peers? Consider the following:

Only one 20-year-old hitter posted a 120-130 wRC+ mark in the Texas League between 2006 and 2015 (min. 300 PA): Texas’ budding star Nomar Mazara.

While Urias and Mazara showed incredible patience against the Class AA pitching, Mazara’s power dwarfs the output of Urias – which is a shock to no one. So let’s take it one step further:

Here’s a list of 20-year-old hitters to post a sub-.100 ISO in the Texas League during the same time frame (min. 300 PA): Bryan Anderson and Hanser Alberto, both of whom were below-average Class AA bats during their age-21 season.

Not what we’re really looking for either. Let’s continue:

So here’s a list of 20-year-old hitters to post at least a 10% walk rate in the Texas League during that time (min. 350 PA): Colby Rasmus, Jon Singleton, Mazara, and Wil Myers.

Again, all showed significantly more power. And this is why Urias is such an interesting prospect, a dichotomy of sorts, really. Urias is going to be as valuable as his OBP, not his bat. Meaning: can he continue to post solid OBPs or will he be just an empty batting average guy?He might be well-suited to play in Petco’s spacious home field. At worse, he’s a utility guy. At best, he’s Jose Altuve without the power, which is still a bit valuable.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

9. Chris Paddack, RHP

Background: As expected, the big Texas-born right-hander missed the entirety of 2017 recovering from Tommy John surgery. According to A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com, the off-season rehab work is on schedule with Paddack’s return targeted as the start of Spring Training. Acquired from the Marlins in exchange for MLB relief vagabond Fernando Rodney at the end of June two years ago, Paddack was in the midst of, perhaps, one of the season’s biggest breakout seasons before injury struck. Splitting time between both organizations, the 6-foot-4, 195-pound right-hander totaled 42.1 innings in Low Class A, recording an impeccable, borderline historical 71-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote in last year’s Handbook when I listed Paddack as the club’s fifth best prospect:

“Just to kind of put some context around Paddack’s domination, consider the following:

Among all MiLB arms with at least 40 innings last season, Paddack’s strikeout percentage, 46.4%, ranked first.

Again, among all MiLB arms with at least 40 innings, Paddack’s strikeout-to-walk percentage, 43.1%, also ranked first.

In fact, here’s a list of players to post a strikeout-to-walk percentage above 43% since 2006: Chris Paddack.

I wish I could use some better phrasing to describe just how good Paddack was before the injury, but I’m simply at a loss for words. I sincerely hope he makes it back to full healthy following the elbow surgery because he could be a lot of fun to write about in the coming years.”

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

10. Eric Lauer, LHP

Background: Kent State University has churned out some impressive talent throughout the school’s history. Yankees great Thurman Munson, Steve Stone, Dustin Hermanson, Matt Guerrier, and Travis Shaw have all walked the hallowed halls of the university. But only three players – Hermanson, Munson, and John Van Benshoten – have had their names called earlier than Lauer, the 25th overall selection two years ago. A three-year mainstay in the underrated powerhouse’s rotation, Lauer was exceptionally unhittable – both literally and figuratively – during his junior season with the Golden Flashes: in a career high 15 starts for Head Coach Jeff Duncan, the 6-foot-3, 205-pound southpaw tallied a Bob Gibson-esque 0.69 ERA to go along with a dominant 125-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 104.0 innings of work.

San Diego allowed Lauer to throw an additional 31.0 innings during his debut, spanning three different levels. Per the club’s aggressive mantra, Lauer, despite throwing just 2.0 innings in Low Class A previously, was pushed up to the California League at the start of 2017. And he handled the assignment with aplomb: 67.2 innings, 84 strikeouts, and just 19 walks. The front office promoted Lauer up the minors’ toughest test, Class AA, in early July. And, once again, Lauer proved to be up to the challenge: 55.0 innings, 48 strikeouts, and 17 walks.

Overall, the former Golden Flash tossed 122.2 innings between the minor league affiliates, averaging 9.7 strikeouts and just a smidge over 2.6 walks per nine innings. He totaled a 3.30 ERA and a 3.51 FIP.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the talented left-hander heading into the 2016 draft:

“Just to add a little context in terms of Lauer’s ridiculously dominant junior campaign, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2015, only four Division I left-handers – Jeff Degano, Brandon Finnegan, Kyle Freeland, and Danny Hultzen – have thrown 90+ innings, average more than 10.75 K/9 and fewer than 2.5 BB/9. Three of those players – Finnegan, Freeland, Hultzen – were high first round picks, and Degano was the Yankees’ second rounder last year.

So, needless to say, the Elyria, Ohio, native has a really good shot at hearing his name called in the opening half of round one. The control/command is solid, probably averaging around 2.8 to 3.2 walks per nine innings. His ability to miss bats, which has been at a premium at the collegiate level, will likely hover around 8.3 K/9 in the professional ranks. Lauer has the ceiling of a good #3 arm.”

A year later and that original analysis seems spot-on. But let’s update it a bit. With respect to his numbers in the California League, consider the following:

It’s not an overly strong collection of arms, but there are a few interesting names sprinkled in. Anderson totaled more than three wins above replacement as a starting pitcher for the Brewers last season. McDonald had a couple seasons in which he was a solid backend starter. And Cingrani has been a strikeout artist in the bullpen.

So now let’s take a look at Lauer’s numbers in the Texas League:

Gonzalez, a former first round pick, is the only notable arm among the bunch. Again, I’m still sticking with the original analysis that Lauer has the peak of a #3, though his floor is along the James McDonald level.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.