The 50 Percent Hurdle

If you don’t want to get too far into the details of New York, the easy thing to watch is whether Mr. Trump is winning 50 percent of the vote statewide. If he clears 50 percent, it means he gets all 14 of the statewide delegates; it would probably mean he would also clear 50 percent in many or most of the state’s 27 congressional districts. All things considered, if he went over 50 percent statewide, he would probably win at least 75 delegates.

Every recent survey shows Mr. Trump clearing 50 percent of the vote, with many of the most recent surveys even placing him in the mid-50s.

He is probably so strong in part because he has been a ubiquitous presence in New York for decades. But the state’s demographics also favor him; he would have a very real shot to get 50 percent of the vote in New York even with no home-state advantage.

New York isn’t quite perfect for him — even his strongest areas have average or above-average educational attainment. But it’s a lot like highly educated Massachusetts, which gave Mr. Trump 49 percent of the vote and has been his best state so far.

Mr. Trump fares best in places that look nothing like the old Republican Party. New Yorkers aren’t very religious, they have low marriage rates, and they’re less likely to work in the old resource-based economy. They are far more likely to be Catholic than Republicans nationwide. It’s the sort of place where a Republican from 1950 might look around and think that America needs to be made great again.