ain

The weather is getting cold in Boston, and I’m coming with the hottest take of all. The Celtics’ problem this season isn’t injuries, it isn’t rebounding, or too many threes, or not enough steals. The Celtics’ problem this season is Brad Stevens.

With 24 games in the bank the team is languishing at 13-11, needing to play like a 55-win team for the rest of the season just to hit their Vegas over/under. The team’s struggles against good teams are well established and anyone who watches more than a few of their games can tell you what the holes in the roster are. I’m here to say that there isn’t really anything wrong with the roster, it’s just being used wrong.

The problem with the team isn’t actually Brad Stevens (of course) but the choices he’s made in deploying his talent do seem to be an issue. The simple fact is that Boston has been very good when they play in traditional lineups. If the Celtics have a natural point guard on the floor and a small forward playing small forward, they’re very good. If they’re missing either of those things, they fall apart.

Thomas Bradley Smart Rozier Tot Minutes Bos PPP Opp PPP Net/100 Y Y N N 277 1.167 1.126 4.1 N N Y Y 118 0.982 0.797 18.5 Y N Y N 64 1.083 1.008 7.5 N Y N Y 124 1.075 1.207 -13.2 N Y Y N 78 1.201 1.02 18.1 Y N N Y 49 1.208 0.911 29.7 Y Y Y N 259 1.082 1.146 -6.4 Y Y N Y 21 1.049 1.39 -34.1 Y N Y Y 27 1.138 1.224 -8.6 N Y Y Y 93 1.109 1.077 3.2

On/off stats by NBAwowy.com

This isn’t particularly new for the Celtics. This time last season the focus of fan ire was Jonas Jerebko, SF. As a power forward, and even a sometimes center, Jerebko has had a good run in green. However, when Brad deployed him as a wing around this time last season, choosing to give him run ahead of James Young in both experimental groups and when Jae Crowder was out injured, he was a disaster. A big part of the team’s second half surge could be attributed to normal player use on the wing.

The good news is that this is the right time of the season to experiment, especially when facing some injuries, and Coach Stevens has shown that he will implement the lessons of the early season later in the year. The other piece of good news is that the team has better internal and external options for applying those lessons than in years past. Currently, the team is facing two rotation problems, and surprisingly neither are “no one can rebound.”

Isaiah Thomas’s Injury

This one is relatively straight-forward. The Celtics have three point guards, but one is rookie Demetrius Jackson. It’s tempting to think of Terry Rozier as the team’s third point guard, or look at Avery Bradley’s development and think he could do the job, but in simple terms, they’re shooting guards. The limited time (all splits are limited right now) that Bradley and Rozier have shared the court has been a train wreck. Those are the only rotation lineups that include a traditional SF that have posted a negative point differential.

With Thomas injured, Stevens only trusts one point guard. It would be interesting to see if Jackson would have received some spot minutes if Isaiah went down with the team 14-7 and a bad opponent coming to town, but it’s just not in Brad’s makeup to trust a rookie in a tough spot. There’s no real solution to this other than finding minutes along the way for Jackson so, if Thomas misses more time later, he may be ready to take the floor. He’s only six months younger than Rozier, so it’s not like he’s James Young fresh out of elementary school.

For however much longer (hopefully not any longer) Isaiah is out with the current injury, it’s important to have Horford on the court when Smart is out. His playmaking alleviates some of the pressure on Bradley and Rozier and “throw the ball to Al” is an easy solution when things bog down.

Marcus Smart at Very Small Forward

I understand the appeal of the “IT & D” lineup of Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Crowder, and Horford. That seems like the team’s five best players and it looks functional enough to try. It’s not worth trying any more. When you play Smart at SF the opponent simple ignores him. That means an extra, not-small defender can collapse into the middle, making it harder for Isaiah to find space and inducing Marcus to jack up more threes than he should. On defense, Smart can defend a certain breed of forwards, but the big, dynamic player that most good teams will have on the court at that position to close games is not it. He simply can’t challenge their shots effectively, or contest at the rim from their hip.

Marcus is a better player than Jaylen Brown, but what’s best for the team is probably to divert some of the minutes he plays to Jaylen and just commit Smart to the PG position. That appears to now be what’s best for the team and for Smart’s personal development. In the final rotation of the game, the group that takes the court from about 5:00 left until the end-game where teams can sub offense/defense, Stevens needs to just select one of Bradley or Smart and slot them in with Thomas, Crowder, Horford, and one other big. Whoever gets dropped won’t like it, but that’s what’s best for the team.

Upgrading the Roster

Looking deeper into the numbers, I now think that if the team is going to move a rotation player in a non-star trade, they would be better bringing back a natural small forward. Assuming Brad will never trust James Young, and Gerald Green is simply not good enough to contribute, the team is at significant risk from a Jae Crowder injury. If he were injured again the likely solution would be even more SF minutes for Smart. The team has started to rebound better and, honestly, they’re fine whenever Horford shares the court with a true wing playing in position. That being the case, if I re-did my Trade Targets post I would probably move PJ Tucker up, add the Pacers’ CJ Miles to the list, and focus on investing more in a player at that position along with a much cheaper acquisition of rebounding depth.

Regardless of any moves, the team has enough to rise up the Eastern Conference standings and win at least one round in the playoffs already. That climb starts with getting healthy and then ending the rotation experiments. The team has two reliable point guards and two trusted small forwards. If at least one of each is always on the court and in their natural position, the Celtics will right the ship.