Our position-by-position review of contact quality grinds on. In the last installment, we examined third basemen. Today, we move into the outfield. It’s two starkly different stories with regard to left-field production, as National League regulars have dramatically out-produced their junior circuit counterparts. As we have in the previous installments, we’ll use granular ball-in-play data, such as BIP type frequencies, exit speed and launch angle to perform this analysis.

The data examined today runs through June 12. Players are separated by league, and are listed in Adjusted Production order. Adjusted Production expresses, on a scale where 100 equals average, what a hitter “should have” produced based on the exit speed/launch angle of each ball put in play. Each player’s Adjusted Contact Score, which weeds out the strikeouts and walks and states what each player should have produced on BIP alone, is also listed. Here goes:

AL LF BIP Profiles Name Avg MPH FLY MPH LD MPH GB MPH POP% FLY% LD% GB% ADJ C K% BB% wRC+ ADJ PR Pull% Saunders 92.7 92.7 97.3 90.7 3.4% 36.3% 23.3% 37.0% 150 26.7% 9.7% 157 121 43.5% Me.Cabrera 90.9 88.1 90.9 94.1 3.5% 26.8% 22.2% 47.5% 81 10.4% 8.8% 109 104 38.6% Js.Ramirez 86.8 85.9 88.8 87.8 4.9% 32.5% 25.2% 37.4% 80 10.1% 8.7% 121 102 31.9% Rasmus 89.6 91.7 95.8 83.5 2.1% 38.0% 23.9% 35.9% 108 27.6% 12.2% 90 95 54.1% Gardner 87.7 89.7 93.4 84.5 3.3% 22.2% 18.3% 56.2% 72 17.7% 13.9% 111 91 36.7% A. Gordon 87.0 87.0 96.2 79.7 1.1% 40.8% 24.7% 33.3% 120 30.1% 9.6% 80 90 35.5% J. Upton 91.1 90.9 98.8 88.2 4.2% 39.9% 21.0% 35.0% 140 33.9% 6.3% 61 89 35.7% Rua 91.1 88.2 87.4 94.9 3.4% 20.7% 16.1% 59.8% 106 26.1% 8.0% 118 87 40.2% Holt 85.7 87.2 88.6 85.5 1.1% 21.0% 23.2% 54.7% 75 16.2% 9.2% 77 86 33.3% Guyer 88.9 88.9 95.2 86.0 6.2% 36.3% 23.9% 33.6% 91 18.5% 4.2% 134 83 47.8% Crisp 85.7 87.6 89.2 82.2 2.5% 35.2% 20.4% 42.0% 62 14.7% 6.6% 72 71 38.0% Ortega 86.3 86.0 88.9 85.6 1.0% 21.3% 18.4% 59.2% 62 12.3% 4.6% 61 71 37.0% Rickard 85.7 86.3 90.4 83.8 2.7% 36.3% 19.9% 41.1% 63 21.0% 7.1% 81 64 41.3% Aoki 86.7 85.8 89.2 86.2 3.1% 13.0% 16.7% 67.2% 45 11.4% 8.7% 81 61 29.1% Rosario 88.7 91.3 92.3 85.3 1.2% 33.3% 15.5% 50.0% 57 25.6% 2.5% 34 45 29.9% AVERAGE 88.3 88.5 92.2 86.5 2.9% 30.2% 20.8% 46.0% 87 20.2% 8.0% 92 84 38.2%

Most of the column headers are self-explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, wRC+ and Adjusted Production, which incorporates the exit speed/angle data. Each hitter’s Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each hitter’s individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.

Cells are also color-coded. If a hitter’s value is two standard deviations or more higher than average, the field is shaded red. If it’s one to two STD higher than average, it’s shaded orange. If it’s one-half to one STD higher than average, it’s shaded dark yellow. If it’s one-half to one STD less than average, it’s shaded blue. If it’s over one STD less than average, it’s shaded black. Ran out of colors at that point. On the rare occasions that a value is over two STD lower than average, we’ll mention it if necessary in the text.

It should be noted that individual hitters’ BIP frequency and authority figures correlate quite well from year to year, with one notable exception. As with pitchers, individual hitters’ liner rates fluctuate quite significantly from year to year, for all but a handful of hitters with a clear talent (or lack thereof) for squaring up the baseball.

Projecting performance based on BIP speed/angle opens us up to a couple biases that we didn’t need to address when evaluating pitchers. Pitchers face a mix of pull and opposite field-oriented hitters, more and less authoritative hitters, etc. Hitters are who they are each time they step up to the plate, and we must choose whether or not to address their individual tendencies.

I have adjusted the projected ground-ball performance for hitters who meet two criteria. First, they’ve recorded over five times as many grounders to the pull side than to the opposite field and, second, they exhibit a resulting deficiency in actual versus projected grounder performance. Such hitters’ projected grounder performance was capped at their actual performance level. Such hitters’ Adjusted Contact Scores and Adjusted Production figures are in red fonts.

I have decided not to adjust for the other primary factor that can skew actual versus projected performance based on exit speed/angle — namely, player speed. We’re attempting to assess hitter contact quality here; let’s keep speed/athleticism separate. As a result, we’ll see some slow, hard-hitting-to-all-fields sluggers overperform on this metric, and some more athletic players underperform. Contact quality is just part of offensive baseball; let’s attempt to isolate and evaluate it on its own.

That’s a pretty rough group of AL regular left fielders. Believe it or not, by any measure, they’re less productive than starting AL shortstops. By Adjusted Contact Score, it’s SS 88, LF 87; by wRC+, it’s SS 95, LF 92; and by Adjusted Production, it’s SS 89, LF 84. Some offense-first position. Still, there are some performances that warrant recognition.

It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that Michael Saunders was “my guy” when I worked for the Mariners. Yes, he was drafted by Bill Bavasi’s regime, but this was a player and a human being whom I recognized as a productive future big leaguer from Day One. This sentiment was far from universally shared in our front office. I was told that I was “on an island” with Saunders, but I liked my island. I fought like a cat to keep him out of multiple trades, and he showed signs of excellence throughout his Mariner career.

It took until this season for him to ultimately reach his potential. It’s been basically a best-case scenario for Saunders, however. Some of his homers have been of the “just-enough” variety; his Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is an off-the-charts 224, while adjusted for context, that mark plunges to 118. His fly-ball rate is quite high, with little upside, and his liner rate is ripe for a bit of negative regression. His Adjusted Production figure of 121 better represents his true-talent level than does his loftier wRC+, but any way you slice it, Saunders has emerged as a very productive corner outfielder.

Melky Cabrera’s ever-present league average-ness is made possible by his extremely low K rate. He doesn’t hit many fly balls, and doesn’t hit them very hard (54 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), though his cozy home environs have allowed him to post a 129 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score to date. He does hit his grounders really hard (161 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score), and deserves much more than the .200 AVG-.214 SLG (74) he’s posted on them to date. He’s basically Willie Randolph offensively, with a tad more pop and a few less walks.

The weak AL left-field crop and an outsized liner rate have enabled Jose Ramirez to rank third on the above list despite well below-average contact authority. Don’t get me wrong: Ramirez is a useful piece, and at his tender age, marked improvement could still be in the offing. His very low K rate gives him a high floor, a la Melky, but his lack of juice makes his ceiling quite low. The high pop-up rate isn’t a good feature for a player with so little potential for damage in the air. I like Ramirez quite a bit as a multi-positional insurance policy, but we should remain realistic regarding his upside.

Colby Rasmus is the living embodiment of the need for an extreme ground-ball-pulling adjustment. He pulls absolutely everything, but the situation is particularly acute on grounders, making Rasmus an easy overshift decision. He’s batting .079 AVG-.079 SLG on the ground, for an 11 Unadjusted Grounder Contact Score. He’s an upper-cutter who doesn’t hit his grounders hard to begin with, but he’d be running a 126 overall Adjusted Contact Score and 107 Adjusted Production mark if he could even manage the lowly 76 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score his BIP authority suggests. On top of it all, expect Rasmus’ liner rate to regress negatively from its current lofty level; the risk level in his offensive game is quite substantial.

Brett Gardner is what he is… a near-league average offensive player thanks to his high walk rate and his ability to tailor his offensive game to his home park. Both his K and BB rates have improved this season, increasing his margin for error with regard to contact-management. He needs that margin, as his BIP authority is ordinary at best, and quite poor on the ground, where he hits most of his batted balls. He has developed a knack for selectively pulling in the air, especially in Yankee Stadium; he’s hitting .385 AVG-.949 SLG in the air (129 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), way above his adjusted mark of 54. He’s another high-floor, modest-ceiling guy.

Alex Gordon’s back in the Royals’ lineup, and while he’s better than his raw 2016 numbers, he’s still not the same guy we’ve seen in the recent past. On the negative side, his K rate is way, way up, his fly-ball rate is pretty much maxed out, and he’s hitting grounders more weakly than any AL player we’ve covered to date. On the more positive side, his pop-up rate is very low for a fly-ball hitter, and he’s been quite unlucky in the air through June 12, batting .275 AVG-.600 SLG (57 Unadjusted Contact Score), while his authority suggests an adjusted 105 mark.

Justin Upton’s season to date shows how punitive a massive K rate can be to a quality ball-striker. Upton crushes his liners, has hit quite a few of them, and has been quite unlucky on fly balls through June 12, batting .313 AVG-.708 SLG (77 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), while his authority supports an adjusted mark of 137. He uses the field and doesn’t invite overshifts. The result is a very strong 140 Adjusted Contact Score, which should be the centerpiece of a quality season. Instead, his always high K rate has jumped to another level, while his BB rate has declined. When your K-BB spread is so poor, it’s pretty hard to have a good year, even if you’re killing the ball.

Ryan Rua crushes his grounders: a good thing, as he hits a ton of them. Still, they don’t support his ridiculous production on grounders through June 12; a .439 AVG-.512 SLG (384 Unadjusted Production), far above his still impressive adjusted mark of 175. He is a legitimate big leaguer, who hits the ball in the air reasonably hard and whose liner rate should positively regress, but I’m not buying him as an average-or-better everyday bat. His K rate projects to be an ongoing issue.

There really isn’t much to say about the rest of the AL group. Some are already in the minors (Rafael Ortega, Nori Aoki, Eddie Rosario) and you could argue that others should be. On to the NL.

NL LF BIP Profiles Name Avg MPH FLY MPH LD MPH GB MPH POP% FLY% LD% GB% ADJ C K% BB% wRC+ ADJ PR Pull% Yelich 95.1 94.1 97.7 94.3 0.0% 17.4% 22.8% 59.9% 148 16.4% 12.6% 147 161 36.5% Braun 90.3 90.2 96.3 87.8 2.4% 26.1% 18.8% 52.7% 129 14.7% 9.2% 141 142 35.8% Holliday 94.1 93.3 98.9 93.4 2.3% 31.6% 13.2% 52.9% 119 15.8% 9.0% 124 128 35.6% Pagan 87.6 82.9 91.2 88.0 3.9% 25.2% 27.2% 43.7% 112 13.5% 9.0% 102 127 41.8% Conforto 91.2 91.8 95.2 88.9 5.7% 37.6% 19.1% 37.6% 146 25.3% 8.8% 105 121 44.7% Werth 92.9 91.4 96.8 93.0 2.6% 40.5% 16.3% 40.5% 126 23.5% 8.4% 102 111 42.5% Duvall 89.2 91.8 94.4 83.3 3.5% 40.9% 21.8% 33.8% 156 29.6% 3.2% 126 104 50.7% Tomas 92.2 89.1 99.6 91.0 1.3% 26.7% 23.3% 48.7% 116 22.4% 7.0% 97 103 38.7% Francoeur 89.7 87.7 94.0 88.4 1.9% 29.8% 21.2% 47.1% 123 23.4% 4.8% 89 102 37.5% S. Marte 88.2 87.9 91.9 85.0 1.1% 26.8% 24.0% 48.0% 123 21.5% 2.8% 137 101 37.0% Soler 92.1 91.9 94.7 92.8 5.2% 38.6% 21.9% 34.4% 98 23.7% 11.2% 92 95 36.5% M. Upton 89.3 89.8 93.9 86.9 3.1% 31.7% 17.7% 47.6% 109 24.9% 7.6% 82 93 31.3% Kendrick 90.6 93.1 93.5 88.9 0.0% 15.7% 17.9% 66.4% 87 16.8% 7.6% 54 93 25.7% Parra 87.8 87.7 93.5 85.6 0.0% 24.4% 17.8% 57.9% 98 16.1% 1.6% 66 92 35.1% Goeddel 87.7 90.6 92.1 85.8 4.2% 24.5% 17.0% 54.3% 70 21.2% 5.3% 80 65 36.5% AVERAGE 90.5 90.2 94.9 88.9 2.5% 29.2% 20.0% 48.4% 117 20.6% 7.2% 103 109 37.7%

I couldn’t possibly be more bullish on a younger player in either league than I am on Christian Yelich. It’s the ideal combination of now production and a clear pathway to the next level. First, he crushes the baseball — in the air, on a line and on the ground. He uses the field, and won’t be overshifted by anyone, anytime soon. His K/BB profile is exceptional, and trending positively. His liner rate is high, and he’s one of the chosen few for whom that might be sustainable.

As for that next level… Yelich is one of the more extreme ground-ball hitters in the game. So was Wilson Ramos, another guy who hits the ball pretty hard, until this season. After some minor adjustments, Ramos has blossomed this season as his fly-ball rate increased. If Yelich is able to make similar adjustments, exactly how good could he be? Maybe Hank Aaron good. I’m not saying he’s going to hit 700-plus homers, but he can hit 30 per season (his 222 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score says hi) with an average well over .300. The Marlins may have locked up the wrong outfielder.

Ryan Braun is just solid as a rock offensively. No red, not even any orange in his profile, but no holes either. A career best K rate by far, and a solid if unspectacular frequency and authority profile with, yes, some room for growth. His fly-ball rate has plenty of upside, and his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 175 remains strong. Braun at age 32 evokes images of a certain other NL Central left fielder at a similar age…

I’ve long been a huge Matt Holliday booster. Crush the baseball, hit it to all fields, maintain a strong K/BB profile: this is the path to long, gradual decline phase, as Braun seems to have noted as well. Through June 12, Holliday was able to post a 124 wRC+ and 128 Adjusted Production despite posting a minuscule 13.2% liner rate. This is exceedingly hard to do; play around the numbers a bit and you’ll see why. Holliday could have “harvested” — that is, sold out for pull power — a long time ago, and hit some higher counting number peaks. If he did, he might not even be playing today, and certainly wouldn’t be as good.

Speaking of liner rates… look what a 27.2% liner rate as of June 12 did for Angel Pagan. Except for his low K rate, it’s absolutely the only positive on Pagan’s profile. Now he’s run solid liner rates throughout his career, but nothing like this. His Adjusted Production score gets a huge boost from, ironically, bad luck on those liners. He hit only .444 AVG-.583 SLG on them, for a 45 Unadjusted Liner Contact Score; his authority level suggests a 94 mark. His low K, high liner package with few extras makes him a high floor guy, but he’s in for some short-term liner frequency regression.

Michael Conforto is currently toiling at Triple-A Las Vegas, hitting the wall not long before my June 12 cutoff. Some of the warning signs can be seen in his profile above. A 23-year-old pure hitter like Conforto should not be an extreme ground-ball-puller, but he’s become one. The Mets never allowed him to amass at-bats against same-handed pitching in the majors, something he’ll need to do to reach his upside. He became a little too power-focused, pulling and hitting too many fly balls for the type of hitter he is, with his K and pop-up rates also rising accordingly. Perhaps his sabbatical in the desert will allow him to revert back to his hit-before-power ways. Interestingly, Conforto’s profile has numerous eerie similarities to that of Jorge Soler, the main difference being the latter’s much larger grounder-pulling penalty.

Don’t sleep on Jayson Werth. Sure, he’s 37, but he still destroys the baseball, especially at lower launch angles, doesn’t invite infield overshifts, and maintains adequate K and BB rates. His liner rate has been unusually low thus far, and should regress upward moving forward. In addition, he’s been unlucky on those liners, batting just .568 AVG-.892 SLG (87 Unadjusted Liner Contact Score), though his authority supports a higher 115 mark. He’s far from done.

I’m not buying on Adam Duvall. Talk about old-player skills. Horrible K-BB profile, extreme pull tendency, maxed out fly-ball rate, uppercut stroke resulting in weakly hit grounders… he’s selling out for short-term power and has nowhere to go once pitchers find his many holes. An odd addendum: he somehow hit five ground ball doubles against only four singles through June 12. The entire NL group above had 170 ground-ball singles to 23 doubles.

There are some things to like in Yasmany Tomas‘ profile. He absolutely scalds his line drives, and could see a substantial uptick in production if he grows into just a bit more fly-ball power. Nearly 43% of his fly balls were hit between 85 and 99 mph, encompassing the bottom part of the productive range and the top part of the “donut hole,” where flies go to die. Just a slight migration of more of them into the 100-104 mph bucket makes Tomas a completely different animal, and I’d bet on him getting it done. There’s plenty of room for growth in his fly-ball frequency as well.

There’s a huge deficit between Starling Marte’s Adjusted Production compared to his wRC+, and a good deal of it is explainable. Marte gets a whole lot from his speed and athleticism that isn’t captured by measures of BIP contact quality. To wit, he hit .283 AVG-.350 SLG (168 Adjusted Contact Score) on grounders through June 12, compared to the 87 mark suggested by his authority level. That’s part luck but part wheels. Marte’s BIP authority is a bit below average across the board, and his BB rate is bad and getting worse. Those aren’t meaningless shortcomings. Still, he’s maintained strong liner rates in his still young career, his fly-ball rate has room to grow, and athleticism ages well. I’d take him on my club.