The San Francisco Giants enter the 2018 offseason with a lot to ponder. The Giants have not been to the playoffs since 2016, when they lost to the eventual World Series champion Chicago Cubs. The Giants seemingly entered 2017 and 2018 with promise, with their ace and one of the best pitchers in Baseball Madison Bumgarner and star catcher Buster Posey leading the way. Unfortunately, injuries have greatly hurt the Giants since 2016, with multiple players spending extended periods of time on the DL. 2018 was especially tough for the Giants all around, with Madison Bumgarner unable to contribute until June after taking a line drive to his hand, Jeff Samardzija losing time due to a pectoral muscle issue and Johnny Cueto requiring Tommy John surgery after having one of the best starts to a season in his career. This is before I mention Brandon Belt requiring knee surgery, and Buster Posey requiring season ending hip surgery in August. Even Ryder Jones dislocated hus left patella after just eight big league at-bats. Furthermore, the Giants believe Johnny Cueto will be unavailable for the 2019 season, Cueto reportedly believes that he will return in August or September and make a few starts. Of course, I do not see this happening unless the Giants are in a position to make the playoffs. Speaking of the playoffs, should the Giants attempt to try this all again at least one last time and make a playoff run, or should they start the rebuild in the offseason and trade off what they can for prospects that can help the team in the future? I want to take a look at what each path could look like for the Giants, but first I think it is important to break down what they owe to players in 2019, and who their impending free agents are.

Player Total Salary (2019) Buster Posey $22,177,777 Johnny Cueto $21,000,000 Jeff Samardzija $19,800,000 Mark Melancon $19,000,000 Brandon Belt $17,200,000 Brandon Crawford $15,200,000 Evan Longoria $14,500,000 Madison Bumgarner $12,000,000 Tony Watson $3,500,000 Pablo Sandoval $555,000

Active Payroll: $142,932,777

Yikes. This is before they pay any of their players under Team Control or in Arbitration. This salary is for only 10 players. Let’s look a little further into the players who are owed money in 2019 by the Giants.

Buster Posey (32): Full no-trade clause.

Jeff Samardzija (34): Limited no-trade clause: block 8 teams per year.

Mark Melancon (34): Full no-trade clause.

Brandon Belt (31): Limited no-trade clause: 10-team trade block.

Brandon Crawford (32): Full no-trade clause.

This is incredibly tough. Even if the Giants wanted to deal some of these players, they do not have much of a choice in the matter, with Posey, Melancon and Crawford having full no-trade clauses, and Belt and Samardzija (it’s okay that I just call him Shark from now on, right?) have limited no-trade clauses and can essentially choose where they want to go. Then comes the questions of who’s going to be willing to take any of these players with the trunky contracts that they are owed this year and beyond, and are the Giants going to get good value in terms of prospect return? None of these players are truly "rentals" as they’re all locked in for a while, with the exception of Melancon, who only has two more years left on his deal, and perhaps in his MLB career. Cueto is another question mark, as the TJ surgery hurt his value big time, not that his $85,000,000 guaranteed (including $21M the 2019 season he might not pitch in due to recovery) over the next 4 years was helping either. The Giants top tradeable player remains Madison Bumgarner, and trading him would pretty much confirm that the Giants will be embracing a rebuild, and will make phone calls and attempt to trade off other contracts. I would understand if the Giants traded away Bumgarner (as much as I know that statement probably hurts Giants fans), the Padres have the best farm system in Baseball, the Rockies have nice young pitching to go with the offensive stars Story, Arenado and Blackmon, the Diamondbacks are reportedly contemplating embracing a rebuild themselves, and the Dodgers will no doubt break the piggy bank open and look to sign everyone they can to win. On top of that, as discussed earlier the Giants just do not have a ton of financial flexibility (unless they're willing to pay the tax), and they do not have a top farm system either. So IF the Giants decide to tear it all down, who would be in the market for Bumgarner?

Trades

New York Yankees: The Evil Empire are definitely looking to shore up their starting rotation, especially after Yankees starters combined for 15 runs earned on 19 hits across 13 innings in just 4 games. The Yankees are definitely going to be in the market for another big bat they could throw in the middle of the lineup, but will most likely be aggressive in trading for or signing a starter. I could see a trade of Clint Frazier and maybe Chance Adams coming in a deal for Bumgarner. The Yankees simply have no room for Clint in the outfield, especially now that Brett Gardner was brought back for another season, and Chance has solid stuff, but the yankees would likely rather roll with Bumgarner, Severino, Tanaka, Sheffield and Loaisiga, and this is before Jordan Montgomery returns mid-season.

Washington Nationals: Trading for Madison Bumgarner would probably make Bryce Harper think twice about leaving Washington, as Bumgarner, Scherzer, and Strasburg would be an incredibly scary pitching trio. There is a chance the Giants discuss either SS/3B prospect Luis Garcia or SS prospect Carter Kieboom (the more likely prospect to be traded), and maybe even Adam Eaton in the deal since the 2020-2021 seasons have options that has a $1.5M buyout built in. Trading for Bumgarner and committing to a deep playoff run would perhaps be enough to keep Harper in Washington, while the Giants walk away with either the #6 or #8 SS prospect in the minors, with both prospects being on the list of MLB’s top 100 prospects (Kieboom at #37, Garcia at #81).

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers were within one game of the World Series, and that is with a rotation that was hurt by injuries with Jimmy Nelson being out the year and Zach Davies battling injury all season. The Brewers are in serious need of a true ace, and Madison Bumgarner would be exactly what they need. With the recent acquisition of Jonathan Schoop at the trade deadline, the Brewers would most likely be open to moving top prospect Keston Hiura and another mid-level prospect or two for Bumgarner. Hiura has a short swing and pairs it with great bat speed, which led to 13 home runs and 43 runs batted in with a .293 batting average. He also showed the ability to be a threat running the bases, as he stole 15 bases between AA and A+ ball, although the 11 times he was caught stealing shows there is still work to be done in that area.

Atlanta Braves: The Braves are an interesting trade candidate for the Giants, as 4 of their top 5 prospects are all pitchers and three of them are MLB ready in Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, and Kyle Wright. If Atlanta has the chance to pull the trigger and get Madison Bumgarner I think there is a chance you could get any of these four prospects, although Soroka is the most preferable out of the group. The Braves would have a good chance at resigning Bumgarner as well since he is originally from North Carolina, just a few hours from Georgia.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies currently owe approximately $69M to 6 players, according to Spotrac. The Phillies are currently linked to stars like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, showing that they are continuing to look to win in the immediate future, and adding a stud pitcher like Madison Bumgarner would absolutely help their rotation. The best part about this is that the Phillies arguably have a top 10 farm system in the league. It is possible that the Giants could walk away with Alec Bohm and other mid-level prospects, or Adonis Medina and other mid-level prospects. I’m unsure if the Phillies would look to give away Sixto Sanchez given his star potential, but the Giants would almost certainly ask for him first in a trade for Bumgarner to attempt to replace him in the near future. There is a chance though, considering that adding Bumgarner and then adding either Harper or Machado could be worth trading top prospects in the Phillies eyes, as with a rotation of Bumgarner, Nola, Arrieta, Pivetta and Eflin and one of those two star bats they could seriously contend in the NL East, but the Phillies are more likely to not make a move like this as they would probably prefer to pair Bumgarner and Nola with Sixto for 2019 and beyond.

If Madison were to get traded, then it is pretty likely that other players like Joe Panik, Will Smith, Hunter Strickland and Sam Dyson, who are arbitration eligible would also be on the trade block as well. It would take a while for the Giants to recover from a rebuild, especially with all of the money they owe to players, but if they can keep acquiring prospects they can build towards a bright future.

However.

Since the Giants are likely to have a hard time trading away prospects, there is a good chance that the Giants give it at least one last run, as they can only hope they can avoid the injury bug that has plagued them the past two years. So what are the moves that the Giants need to make in order to have a successful season?

Starting Rotation

Madison Bumgarner: In order to have a chance at the playoffs, the Giants need Madison to stay away from injury, and make at least 30 starts. With Bumgarner's talent, and some help from the offense he can win at least half of his starts, which would be a huge help to the Giants that they did not have all of last year as the most wins any pitcher collected for the Giants was 10 from Chris Stratton, who pitched to an inflated 5.09 ERA in 145 IP.

Jeff Samardzija: Shark is another player the Giants need to have a healthy season from. While Jeff has not had many impressive seasons in his career, posting below a 4.00 ERA just 5 times in his MLB career, if they could get at least 2017 Shark they would be in decent standings. In 2017 Jeff posted one of the better K:BB ratios in Baseball, with 205 strikeouts and 32 walks in 207.2 IP, with a 3.61 FIP and a 2.5 WAR, which are solid numbers. Besides the injuries that kept Shark out for most of the season, a big problem was the fact that his velocity was down from 2017, with his fourseam and sinker being down by about 2 MPH (according to Brooks Baseball), and the command was wild with a career-high 5.2 BB/9 and a 6.0 K/9. It goes without saying that the command and velocity need to return for Jeff Samardzija to make an impact on the 2019 San Francisco Giants.

Andrew Suárez: If there was one good thing to take away from Andrew Suárez’s rookie season is that he proved to be a workhorse, with 29 starts to his name with 160.1 IP, which led all NL rookies. He was also 5th among all rookies with 130 strikeouts. What was impressive about Suárez was when he went seven innings, he was firing on all cylinders with 5 total earned runs in his six starts that he went of 7 innings or more. He will need to work on pitching away from the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, as a 5.26 ERA in 15 GS on the road is terrible, and he needs to work on allowing fewer hits as well, with a .269 BAA (.290 to right-handers) being far less than desirable. If Suárez can turn in 200 innings next season and bring his ERA down to the three range it would be a huge help to the Giants. Getting consistency from a pitcher they have yet to pay is a big plus.

Dereck Rodríguez: The son of Hall of Fame Catcher Ivan Rodríguez, Dereck was perhaps the biggest bright spot of the Giants lost season. Dereck finished the season with a 2.81 ERA in 118.1 innings and 21 games (19 starts), and a .229 BAA. He was consistent both at home (2.68 ERA) and on the road (3.05 ERA). There were some issues though with Rodríguez, including a 3 MPH dip in his fourseam fastball from the beginning of the year to the end and a 2 MPH decrease in his sinker, according to Brooks Baseball. This is not exactly surprising, as the season is grueling, but he needs to find a way to keep his velocity consistent throughout the season if he expects to perform well next season and if he expects to pitch close to 200 innings. Dereck performed like the team’s top pitcher in a lost season, but will probably not be the team ace in future years. There’s still reason to believe that he can develop into a decent #2 or #3 in the rotation, but the advanced statistics, including a 3.74 FIP and a 4.56 xFIP on the season projects him as more of a mid-rotation starter.

The last rotation spot is a toss-up. There have been rumors that the Giants are going to take a look at signing Arizona D-Backs pitcher Patrick Corbin, who according to Nick Cafardo, will be worth at least $20 million per season over 5 years. If the Giants are committing to trying to make the playoffs, adding Corbin would be a nice move. Corbin pitched a lot better away from hitter-friendly Chase Field, posting a 2.80 ERA on the road versus a 3.47 ERA on the road. With his slider and curveball being two of his filthiest pitches, and rejuvenated velocity in his fourseam fastball (from 92.60 in March to 90.33 in May to 92.57 in September according to Brooks Baseball), he can be a nice #2 to Madison Bumgarner. If they decide to go with someone in-house, it’s possible the Giants go with Chris Stratton, or they bring up Tyler Beede or Shaun Anderson, likely depending on the results of spring training.

Bullpen

CP: Will Smith

RP: Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, Reyes Moronta, Ty Blach

The Bullpen is one of the areas that the Giants do not have to address this offseason. It was solid throughout the season and is the least of their worries.

Bats

Should the Giants not spend money on another rotation piece, it is possible that they attempt to get into the room with Bryce Harper as the Giants could look to push themselves against the luxury tax for the 2019 season. It would make sense for Bryce, as the Las Vegas native would not be too far from home, and would be able to enjoy the beautiful weather and sights the Bay Area has to offer. Fueling more rumors, Bryce has had quite a few social media posts about his experiences in the bay area, all showing that he has enjoyed his time there (here’s the link for those interested https://bit.ly/2SHWKdo). The Giants could also look into trading for Kyle Schwarber, who is cheaper and also a power bat, but Bryce brings undeniable hustle, speed, and a patient bat (130:169 BB:K) that the Giants would be missing in Kyle Schwarber. The Giants could also look into players like Michael Brantley or Marwin Gonzalez to patrol the outfield should they whiff on Harper. Otherwise, the Giants should be looking at bringing a backup catcher like Nick Hundley into the fold should Buster Posey be unable to go for the beginning month of the season.

Should the Giants push be okay with putting themselves in a position to pay the luxury tax for the 2019 season, it’s likely they try to convince Corbin ($100M over 5 years) and Harper ($280-$310M over 10 years) to come to the Bay in an effort to win a championship. This would be a big step in the right direction as the roster would likely look like this:

INF: Brandon Belt (1B), Joe Panik (2B), Brandon Crawford (SS), Evan Longoria (3B), Pablo Sandoval (3B/1B), Alen Hanson (UTIL), Buster Posey (C), Aramís García (C), Kelby Tomlinson (2B/SS)

OF: Chris Shaw, Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, Bryce Harper

SP: Madison Bumgarner, Patrick Corbin, Jeff Samardzija, Andrew Suárez, Dereck Rodríguez

RP: Will Smith (CL), Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Reyes Moronta, Sam Dyson, Ty Blach

It is possible that the Giants look to bring in Stratton as another long reliever or even 6th man in the rotation if they were to sign Patrick Corbin to add to the rotation. Stratton would probably take the roster spot of Kelby Tomlinson if that were the case. This team could be a postseason contender, and has the potential to make a deep playoff run should the team avoid bad luck with injuries. What do you think? Should the Giants blow it all up, or should they try to lure big name free agents to the Bay in the offseason? Let me know down below.