LePage is one of the most vulnerable gubernatorial incumbents in 2014. The Paul LePage meltdown

Gov. Paul LePage is having a summer meltdown.

Since June, the Maine Republican has sparked outrage over a crude sexual comment he made about an opponent; remarked — jokingly, he said later — that he wanted to blow up a newspaper, and, according to a Maine media report this week that he denied, told a roomful of Republicans recently that President Barack Obama “hates white people.”


LePage, up for reelection next year, is one of the most vulnerable gubernatorial incumbents in 2014.

( Also on POLITICO: LePage denies 'white people' remark)

“If you poll Maine people and describe the policies he’s advocating, I think his rating’s around 60 percent, if not higher,” said former Republican state senator and political commentator Philip Harriman. “When you put his name beside the policy, he loses about 40 percent of that. I think he’s on the right track, but he has the propensity to create self-inflicted injury.”

The GOP governor was first elected in 2010, winning a seven-way primary with tea party support. Even his critics acknowledge his impressive personal story: LePage, the oldest of 18 children, left a violent household at the age of 11. He was homeless for a time before making his way through college and the business community to a seat as mayor of Waterville, Maine. He ultimately arrived at the governor’s mansion, where he has railed against spending and promoted tax cuts.

But LePage’s a lengthy and colorful history of gaffes is now threatening his political career. He once said NAACP leaders could “kiss my butt” if they didn’t accept that he had to miss an event and, “If they want to play the race card, come to dinner; my [Jamaican-born] son will talk to them.” Another time, he likened the IRS to the Gestapo, sparking outrage. He later said, “What I am trying to say is the Holocaust was a horrific crime against humanity and, frankly, I would never want to see that repeated. Maybe the IRS is not quite as bad — yet.”

( Also on POLITICO: Stakes high in 2014 governor battles)

The Portland Press Herald on Monday evening reported his alleged remarks about Obama, citing anonymous GOP lawmakers.

When asked Tuesday whether he made that statement, LePage told reporters, “No, I never said that, and you guys are all about gossip.” But that didn’t stop the media reports or stem the skepticism, including among some Republican sources.

Republicans nationally control 30 of the 50 governorships and many of the incumbents up next year look to have strong paths to reelection. Not so for LePage. Rep. Mike Michaud (D-Maine) threw his hat into the governor’s race earlier this month, and Eliot Cutler, an independent who narrowly lost to LePage in 2010, is running again.

( PHOTOS: 10 gaffes caught on mic)

“Aside from his own personal implosions, the big linchpin is whether this remains a three-person race,” said a senior Maine Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity. “There’s a very strong Democrat in the race. … If the independent exits the race, there’s almost no chance [LePage] gets reelected. If that takes shape, I think you see him reconsidering running at all or at least getting a substantial primary challenge.”

Maine observers note that it’s still too early to know, however, how those dynamics play out, though a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association told POLITICO that “a vote for Eliot Cutler is a vote for LePage,” offering a look at one line of messaging against the independent.

The Republican source also pointed to occasions in which the governor suggested he might not seek reelection, though he has since indicated interest.

( PHOTOS: Scandal pols: Where are they now?)

“I think there’s a bigger question now about whether he’ll even stay in the race,” the source said. “Among the pundit class up here, there’s a lot of chatter about that. As you can see, he’s an erratic personality.”

Brent Littlefield, a political strategist for LePage, expressed optimism about the race, alluding to internal polls, though he declined to provide any figures to POLITICO, saying he never shares such numbers.

“I think the race is going very well,” Littlefield said. “I’ve said that repeatedly. This is a three-way governor’s race, he’s significantly ahead at this point. It’s a long, long race, and it’s dramatically premature to talk about a campaign more than a year away.”

LePage does have one path to victory, according to Michael Cuzzi, a Maine-based communications consultant and Democratic campaign veteran.

“Paul LePage’s reelection campaign hinges on Mike Michaud and Eliot Cutler cannibalizing the Democratic and independent vote,” he said. If that happens, “ it will keep a running lane open for this governor.”

Cuzzi said that if one of those candidates were to stake out an enduring lead, however, it’s hard to see how LePage wins.

“The worst-case scenario for the governor is one of those two gentlemen emerges as an unequaled alternative to LePage,” he said. “If that happens, I think there is such anger and frustration and exasperation with this governor that voters will coalesce around that clear ‘anyone but LePage’ candidate.”

LePage’s recent alleged comments, on top of the litany of other eyebrow-raisers he’s delivered in the past, could be enough to sink him, Cuzzi said.

“I think his repeated pattern of these sorts of inflammatory moments and rhetoric that has become increasingly divisive, increasingly harder to countenance, if that even has an effect around the margins of his support, say, 2-3 percent who just decide they can’t stick with this guy,” he said, “it can have serious consequences for his reelection prospects.”

LePage is one of Democrats’ top targets in gubernatorial races next year, said Democratic Governors Association spokesman Danny Kanner.

“Paul LePage has proven that he is an embarrassment to the people of Maine. Not only does he consistently bring public humiliation to the state, but he pairs it with ideological extremism” on a number of key issues, Kanner charged.

A spokesman for the Republican Governors Association defended LePage, pointing to his accomplishments on economic issues.

“Through key tax cuts, reducing Maine’s pension shortfall, ending unnecessary state spending and guiding Maine to its lowest unemployment rate in more than four years, his record speaks for itself,” RGA spokesman Jon Thompson said in a statement. “Voters have taken notice and we’re confident it will propel Governor LePage to a second term.”

Harriman, who is supportive of LePage’s policies, lamented the governor’s gaffe-prone tendencies.

“If he handled some of these key matters differently, he would be a shoo-in,” Harriman said in an interview. “He’s got a very compelling personal story, he’s demonstrated he has courage under fire, he’s passionate about our state and our people. I think that’s part of why he gets in trouble, with words out of frustration.”

For example, as LePage discussed a budget fight in June, he told a reporter that a Democratic leader in the state Senate is “the first one to give it to the people without providing Vaseline,” adding a moment later, “Dammit, that comment is not politically correct.”

“I think if you look at his entire body of work, on the policy side, it’s pretty good,” said Dean Scontras, who in 2010 ran unsuccessfully as the GOP’s congressional nominee in Maine’s 1st District. “But I think the collateral damage caused by his continual gaffes caused a lot of problems for the greater party.”

Scontras, who now lives in Virginia, said he could speak more freely than some of his GOP friends in Maine who work with the governor.

“It’s unfortunate because there hasn’t been a Republican in Blaine House [the governor’s mansion] in a long time,” he said, adding that LePage shouldn’t seek reelection. “I think slowly he’s really hurt the greater effort in the state.”