The role of genetically modified (GM) crops for food security is the subject of public controversy. GM crops could contribute to food production increases and higher food availability. There may also be impacts on food quality and nutrient composition. Finally, growing GM crops may influence farmers’ income and thus their economic access to food. Smallholder farmers make up a large proportion of the undernourished people worldwide. Our study focuses on this latter aspect and provides the first ex post analysis of food security impacts of GM crops at the micro level. We use comprehensive panel data collected over several years from farm households in India, where insect-resistant GM cotton has been widely adopted. Controlling for other factors, the adoption of GM cotton has significantly improved calorie consumption and dietary quality, resulting from increased family incomes. This technology has reduced food insecurity by 15–20% among cotton-producing households. GM crops alone will not solve the hunger problem, but they can be an important component in a broader food security strategy.

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Introduction

Food security exists when all people have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food. Unfortunately, food security does not exist for a significant proportion of the world population. Around 900 million people are undernourished, meaning that they are undersupplied with calories [1]. Many more suffer from specific nutritional deficiencies, often related to insufficient intake of micronutrients. Eradicating hunger is a central part of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals [2]. But how to achieve this goal is debated controversially. Genetically modified (GM) crops are sometimes mentioned in this connection. Some see the development and use of GM crops as key to reduce hunger [3], [4], while others consider this technology as a further risk to food security [5], [6]. Solid empirical evidence to support either of these views is thin.

There are three possible pathways how GM crops could impact food security. First, GM crops could contribute to food production increases and thus improve the availability of food at global and local levels. Second, GM crops could affect food safety and food quality. Third, GM crops could influence the economic and social situation of farmers, thus improving or worsening their economic access to food. This latter aspect is of particular importance given that an estimated 50% of all undernourished people worldwide are small-scale farmers in developing countries [7].

In regard to the first pathway, GM technologies could make food crops higher yielding and more robust to biotic and abiotic stresses [8], [9]. This could stabilize and increase food supplies, which is important against the background of increasing food demand, climate change, and land and water scarcity. In 2012, 170 million hectares (ha) – around 12% of the global arable land – were planted with GM crops, such as soybean, corn, cotton, and canola [10], but most of these crops were not grown primarily for direct food use. While agricultural commodity prices would be higher without the productivity gains from GM technology [11], impacts on food availability could be bigger if more GM food crops were commercialized. Lack of public acceptance is one of the main reasons why this has not yet happened more widely [12].

Concerning the second pathway, crops with new traits can be associated with food safety risks, which have to be assessed and managed case by case. But such risks are not specific to GM crops. Long-term research confirms that GM technology is not per se more risky than conventional plant breeding technologies [13]. On the other hand, GM technology can help to breed food crops with higher contents of micronutrients; a case in point is Golden Rice with provitamin A in the grain [14]. Such GM crops have not yet been commercialized. Projections show that they could reduce nutritional deficiencies among the poor, entailing sizeable positive health effects [15], [16].

The third pathway relates to GM crop use by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Half of the global GM crop area is located in developing countries, but much of this refers to large farms in countries of South America. One notable exception is Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton, which is grown by around 15 million smallholders in India, China, Pakistan, and a few other developing countries [10]. Bt cotton provides resistance to important insect pests, especially cotton bollworms. Several studies have shown that Bt cotton adoption reduces chemical pesticide use and increases yields in farmers’ fields [17]–[20]. There are also a few studies that have shown that these benefits are associated with increases in farm household income and living standard [21]–[23]. Higher incomes are generally expected to cause increases in food consumption in poor farm households. On the other hand, cotton is a non-food cash crop, so that the nutrition impact is uncertain.

Here we address this question and analyze the impact of Bt cotton adoption on calorie consumption and dietary quality in India. Bt cotton was first commercialized in India in 2002. In 2012, over 7 million farmers had adopted this technology on 10.8 million ha – equivalent to 93% of the country’s total cotton area [10]. For the analysis, we carried out a household survey and collected comprehensive data over a period of several years. This is the first ex post study that analyzes food security effects of Bt cotton or any other GM crop with micro level data.