May 15, 2019 - Biden Leads Trump 53 - 42 Percent In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Former V.P. Tops All Dems In Primary Matchup

PDF format

Trend Information

Sample and Methodology detail



In an early look at the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania, former Vice President Joseph Biden is over the 50 percent mark in a matchup with President Donald Trump, leading 53 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





There is a wide gender gap as women back Biden 60 - 36 percent, while men are divided with 49 percent for President Trump and 45 percent for Biden, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. White voters are divided with 49 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump. Non-white voters go Democratic 70 - 27 percent.





Trump leads 90 - 7 percent among Pennsylvania Republicans. Biden leads 93 - 6 percent among Democrats and 51 - 37 percent among independent voters.





Matchups between Trump and other top Democratic contenders show:

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont over Trump 50 - 43 percent;

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent;

Trump and Sen. Kamala Harris of California split 45 - 45 percent;

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 45 percent to Trump's 44 percent;

Trump at 46 percent to 44 percent for former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas.

It is more important for a presidential candidate to be a great leader, 53 percent of voters say, as 38 percent say it is more important for a candidate to have great policy ideas.





"More than half of Pennsylvania voters say they are better off financially than they were in 2016. But the economy isn't giving President Donald Trump an edge in an early read of the very key Keystone State," said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"At this stage, former Vice President Joe Biden has an 11 percentage point lead in a direct matchup with President Trump. Sen. Bernie Sanders has a slight lead and other Democratic presidential hopefuls are all neck and neck with Trump."





There are wide racial and gender gaps as Pennsylvania voters disapprove 54 - 42 percent of the job Trump is doing as president. White voters are divided as 46 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove. Non-white voters disapprove 74 - 23 percent. Men are divided as 51 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. Women disapprove 62 - 34 percent.





But 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016. Another 21 percent say they are worse off and 22 percent say their financial situation is the same.





Pennsylvania's economy is "excellent" or "good," 71 percent of voters say, far surpassing the highest score on this question, 46 percent, from a February 10, 2015, survey. A total of 77 percent of voters describe their own financial situation as "excellent" or "good."





Pennsylvania Democratic Primary





Biden leads in a Pennsylvania Democratic primary with 39 percent, followed by Sanders with 13 percent, Harris and Warren with 8 percent each, Buttigieg at 6 percent and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey with 5 percent. No other Democratic contender tops 2 percent.





Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, 61 percent of Pennsylvania registered Democrats say, followed by Sanders with 6 percent.





Biden would be the best leader, 45 percent of Democrats say, followed by Sanders with 11 percent and Warren with 9 percent.





Biden has the best policy ideas, 23 percent of Democrats say, followed by Warren and Sanders with 18 percent each.





"Bolstering Vice President Biden's numbers is something on which Democrats of all stripes in Pennsylvania agree: Whether they back Biden or not, more than 60 percent believe he has the best chance of defeating Trump in 2020," Snow said.





From May 9 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 978 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 431 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, and Michael Bennet, for whom would you vote?

REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 39% 24% 46% 44% 36% 41% Sanders 13 23 17 9 16 11 O'Rourke 2 1 7 1 4 2 Harris 8 9 6 9 7 9 Warren 8 17 8 4 7 8 Booker 5 4 7 5 6 4 Gillibrand - - - - - - Klobuchar 1 - - 2 - 1 Castro - 2 - - - 1 Gabbard - - - - 1 - Inslee - 1 - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - Buttigieg 6 13 5 4 5 7 Yang - - - - - - Williamson - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - Swalwell - - - 1 1 - Ryan - - - - - - Moulton - - - - - - Bennet - - 1 - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 4 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 1 2 DK/NA 12 7 5 13 11 12 AGE IN YRS INCOME............. 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 29% 47% 41% 39% 35% Sanders 27 4 17 15 6 O'Rourke 3 2 4 1 2 Harris 4 11 6 6 15 Warren 7 7 5 13 10 Booker 8 3 8 - 8 Gillibrand - - - - - Klobuchar - 2 2 - 1 Castro 1 - - - 1 Gabbard - - - 1 - Inslee - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - 1 - Delaney - - - - - Buttigieg 8 6 3 7 11 Yang - - - - - Williamson - - - - - Messam - - - - - Swalwell 1 - 1 - - Ryan - - - - - Moulton - - - - - Bennet - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 5 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 2 2 - DK/NA 10 11 12 10 10

2. (If Registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - would be the best leader?

REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 45% 32% 45% 51% 43% 47% Sanders 11 21 17 5 16 8 O'Rourke 1 1 1 - 1 - Harris 5 2 8 5 7 4 Warren 9 18 10 5 7 10 Booker 2 2 3 3 2 3 Gillibrand - - - - 1 - Klobuchar 1 - - 1 - 1 Castro - 2 - - - 1 Gabbard - - - - - - Inslee - 1 - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - Buttigieg 4 4 4 4 5 3 Yang - - - - - - Williamson - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - Swalwell - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - Moulton - - - - - - Bennet - - 1 - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 3 2 DK/NA 20 17 10 23 14 22 AGE IN YRS INCOME............. 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 35% 53% 43% 43% 49% Sanders 22 4 13 15 5 O'Rourke - 1 1 - 1 Harris 4 6 4 4 8 Warren 8 9 6 13 12 Booker 3 2 4 - 2 Gillibrand 1 - - - 1 Klobuchar - 1 2 - - Castro 1 - - - 1 Gabbard - - - - - Inslee - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - 1 - Delaney - - - - - Buttigieg 4 4 2 6 6 Yang - - - - - Williamson - - - - - Messam - - - - - Swalwell - - - - - Ryan - - - - - Moulton - - - - - Bennet - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 4 - 1 DK/NA 22 17 21 18 13

3. (If Registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best policy ideas?

REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 23% 10% 18% 30% 29% 20% Sanders 18 29 32 10 20 17 O'Rourke 1 - - 1 - 1 Harris 6 7 5 6 4 8 Warren 18 27 26 14 21 17 Booker 2 2 5 1 4 1 Gillibrand - - - - - - Klobuchar 1 - 1 1 - 1 Castro - - - - - - Gabbard - - - - - - Inslee - 1 - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - Buttigieg 2 4 4 1 3 2 Yang - - - - - - Williamson - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - Swalwell - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - Moulton - - - - - - Bennet - - 1 - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 3 3 1 DK/NA 25 21 8 31 15 31 AGE IN YRS INCOME............. 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 14% 29% 27% 19% 17% Sanders 37 7 23 22 9 O'Rourke - 1 2 - - Harris 3 9 3 4 14 Warren 15 20 11 28 24 Booker 4 1 2 - 5 Gillibrand - - - - - Klobuchar - 2 1 - 3 Castro - - - - - Gabbard - - - - - Inslee - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - 1 - Delaney - - - - - Buttigieg 1 3 2 3 3 Yang - - - - - Williamson - - - - - Messam - - - - - Swalwell - - - - - Ryan - - 1 - - Moulton - - - - - Bennet - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 3 1 1 DK/NA 25 25 24 21 23

4. (If Registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election?

REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 61% 56% 73% 59% 62% 60% Sanders 6 15 6 3 11 4 O'Rourke 1 1 1 1 1 1 Harris 3 4 - 3 4 2 Warren 3 9 4 1 2 4 Booker 1 - - 2 - 1 Gillibrand - - - - - - Klobuchar - - - - - - Castro - - - 1 - 1 Gabbard - - - - - - Inslee - 1 - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - Buttigieg 2 2 1 2 1 2 Yang - - - - - - Williamson - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - Swalwell - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - Moulton - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 3 1 DK/NA 21 12 13 26 15 24 AGE IN YRS INCOME............. 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 52% 68% 56% 65% 66% Sanders 12 3 5 11 3 O'Rourke - 1 1 1 1 Harris 3 3 3 2 4 Warren 5 2 2 5 6 Booker 2 - - - 3 Gillibrand - - - - 1 Klobuchar - - 1 - - Castro - 1 - - 2 Gabbard - - - - - Inslee - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - Delaney - - - - - Buttigieg - 3 1 3 1 Yang - - - - - Williamson - - - - - Messam - - - - - Swalwell - - - - - Ryan - - - - - Moulton - - - - - Bennet - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 3 1 1 DK/NA 27 15 29 12 13

5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 53% 7% 93% 51% 45% 60% 63% 38% Trump 42 90 6 37 49 36 32 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 3 2 1 6 3 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Biden 58% 51% 49% 58% 41% 57% 49% 70% Trump 36 44 47 38 54 37 45 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 - 1 - 3 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - - - - 1 1 - DK/NA - 4 3 4 2 3 3 3

6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Sanders 50% 6% 89% 50% 41% 58% 59% 34% Trump 43 92 7 37 53 35 36 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 6 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 - 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 3 1 1 7 2 4 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Sanders 58% 48% 48% 52% 36% 54% 46% 70% Trump 32 48 48 41 59 39 49 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 - 2 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 3 1 3 2 - DK/NA 5 1 4 3 1 3 2 7

7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Elizabeth Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Warren 47% 4% 85% 46% 37% 56% 56% 31% Trump 44 94 8 39 55 35 38 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 2 8 3 4 2 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 4 1 2 6 4 4 3 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Warren 57% 42% 43% 52% 32% 52% 43% 67% Trump 34 48 51 40 61 39 50 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 7 2 1 3 3 4 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 - 1 1 1 1 4 DK/NA 1 4 5 4 2 4 3 5

8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 45% 3% 87% 41% 35% 55% 56% 29% Trump 45 94 7 43 54 37 38 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 4 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 DK/NA 5 2 2 8 6 3 3 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Harris 49% 45% 43% 50% 30% 51% 41% 64% Trump 38 45 52 41 59 40 49 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 - 3 3 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 1 - 1 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 5 6 4 5 6 4 5 5

9. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Pete Buttigieg the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Buttigieg 45% 4% 86% 39% 36% 53% 56% 30% Trump 44 92 7 40 53 35 35 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 - 1 10 4 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 - 2 1 2 DK/NA 6 3 5 8 6 6 5 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Buttigieg 47% 46% 44% 47% 33% 50% 42% 61% Trump 40 42 49 41 58 39 48 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 8 4 1 2 4 3 4 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 - 3 2 1 DK/NA 2 8 5 8 5 6 5 7

10. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 44% 4% 83% 38% 36% 52% 56% 30% Trump 46 93 8 45 55 37 35 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 - 3 9 4 4 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 1 4 7 4 6 5 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht O'Rourke 50% 40% 42% 49% 33% 51% 42% 56% Trump 42 47 51 40 59 38 48 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 7 4 3 3 4 4 4 7 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 - 1 - 2 1 - DK/NA 1 7 4 7 4 6 5 4

11. If you had to choose, which is more important in a presidential candidate: a candidate who you think would be a great leader, or a candidate who you think has great policy ideas?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Great leader 53% 52% 60% 48% 55% 52% 52% 56% Great policy ideas 38 36 36 44 37 39 43 34 DK/NA 8 12 4 9 8 9 4 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Great leader 45% 61% 53% 53% 56% 53% 54% 53% Great policy ideas 49 32 41 35 38 39 38 37 DK/NA 6 7 6 12 6 8 7 10 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Great leader 55% 53% 52% 58% 55% 55% Great policy ideas 39 41 46 37 40 39 DK/NA 6 6 2 5 5 6 AGE IN YRS INCOME............. 18-49 50+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Great leader 55% 56% 50% 54% 71% Great policy ideas 43 37 44 44 28 DK/NA 2 7 6 3 1

15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 42% 91% 6% 36% 51% 34% 35% 56% Disapprove 54 7 92 56 45 62 63 38 DK/NA 4 2 2 8 4 4 2 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 33% 44% 48% 38% 57% 37% 46% 23% Disapprove 63 50 49 58 40 58 49 74 DK/NA 4 6 3 4 3 5 4 3

18. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Excellent 7% 11% 5% 6% 12% 2% 7% 8% Good 64 62 67 63 61 66 66 66 Not so good 22 19 22 24 18 26 22 18 Poor 5 6 5 4 7 3 3 5 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Excellent 8% 7% 6% 7% 12% 3% 7% 5% Good 57 67 65 64 64 67 66 55 Not so good 29 20 19 22 16 23 20 33 Poor 6 6 6 3 6 3 5 7 DK/NA - 1 4 4 1 4 2 1

19. Would you describe your financial situation these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Excellent 13% 17% 9% 13% 14% 11% 18% 10% Good 64 66 68 59 64 63 63 69 Not so good 16 12 14 23 15 17 12 15 Poor 6 4 7 5 5 6 4 4 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Excellent 8% 14% 13% 13% 16% 12% 14% 8% Good 61 62 67 65 66 67 66 52 Not so good 27 14 12 16 14 14 14 25 Poor 4 9 6 5 4 4 4 14 DK/NA - 1 2 2 - 3 2 1

20. Do you think Pennsylvania's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Better 29% 43% 24% 22% 38% 22% 31% 32% Worse 12 9 14 13 10 13 11 11 The same 55 42 60 61 49 62 56 52 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 3 4 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... Non 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Wht Better 34% 27% 29% 27% 40% 24% 32% 19% Worse 8 13 16 9 9 13 11 14 The same 55 56 52 60 48 58 53 65 DK/NA 3 3 3 5 3 5 4 2

21. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially today than you were in 2016?