SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Warning to GOP: A new poll says you can kiss the presidency goodbye for 10 more long years: Why? “Voters have little tolerance for a presidential candidate in 2016 who doesn’t believe that climate change is caused by human activity.” More on that below. But that means the GOP is destined to be on the outside of the White House for 10 more years, playing by the same total-defense playbook that didn’t work the last two presidential elections.

Only 38% of Americans would support a climate-science denier in a presidential bid, a new poll shows. Bloomberg

Why? You can’t blame the tea party. Nor voter suppression and self-defeating immigration policies. Not minimum wages, debt, taxes, abortion, gun laws, pipelines nor same-sex marriage. Not health care, inequality nor the weak recovery. Not even rapidly shifting demographics. Yes, these trends will increase your handicap, radically changing the GOP’s next-generation base. But that’s not why the GOP won’t win back the presidency.

And what about taking back the Senate? Don’t cheer too loudly. That advantage won’t last long. More defensive battles fighting an incumbent president with veto power. Bad for the image. And then, in 2016, not only the presidency is up from grabs, 23 GOP senators and only 10 Dems are up for re-election.

It gets worse: From now till the 2014 elections, the GOP will double down with the same hard-right strategy that plays well to a conservative base. But then from 2014 to 2016 you must shift to a center-left strategy to appeal to the emerging new American voter if you want to win over a national fan base for 2016. But that doubling-down also puts the GOP in a double-bind: By 2016, any left-leaning candidate will anger the hard-right base that wins back the Senate in 2014. A huge dilemma.

GOP’S biggest problem 2014-2024? The one and only ... Big Oil

Yes, Big Oil will be the GOP’s biggest problem for years. And the big reason the GOP can kiss the presidency goodbye. Why? Big Oil won’t change. For one, they’ll fight any carbon tax. But to win the presidency, the GOP must change. A classic double bind. That’s why no Republican will occupy the White House likely till 2024. One reason: Big Oil, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and, of course, the Koch billionaires.

Yes, the GOP’s in love with Big Oil. The money keeps them in Washington. They’re mutually dependent, addict-and-supplier, obsessed-and-object, master-and-servant, trapped in a symbiotic dance of death. So blindly dependent they can’t see, cannot break free of their dependency. One has the money and power, needs to manipulate the law. The other craves money, status and an illusion of power. A classic dependency syndrome. Both hold tight, won’t wake up, till it's too late after they bottom-out, trigger a collapse, like 2000 and 2008, that takes down the economy, forces them to create a new business model, new political game strategy.

Unfortunately, the collapse will be traumatic, painful, not only for Big Oil, the GOP, also a million car owners, and the world economy.

So for years to come, the so-called “Party of Big Business” will keep losing the presidency because their Big Oil suppliers control the GOP votes, dictate how to vote, and when the GOP gets its fix. But for now, Big Oil’s game plan is profitable: A pittance to politicians yields billions in tax breaks, favorable regulations, a fabulous return on investment for Big Oil.

Voters slowly waking up, see deniers as puppets selling snake oil

Yes, compared to the profit potential, the payoff to Big Oil is enormous, so they are forced to keep playing this game using the same old model, to keep a steady flow of quarterly earnings, executive bonuses, new reserves, refinery humming, tankers full, pipelines flowing, gas stations supplied.

But unfortunately Big Oil and its dependent politicians in the GOP are now on the wrong side of history when it comes to global warming and climate change. But both remain intransigent, no compromise, clutching to the old playbook, blind to how the sands of history are shifting under their outdated business model.

Sounds too harsh? The blunt truth always is: Today it’s obvious that our elected GOP politicians, the used-to-be “Party of Big Business,” really has descended into a sad dependency role, as pawns, puppets, lackeys, lapdogs.

Money is destroying American democracy, especially the Grand Old Party. Today they are totally dependent on Big Oil, groveling. GOP votes on whatever Big Oil lobbyists demand. The GOP has lost its pride, its moral courage to do what’s right, lost its independent thinkers. They need a new Bill Buckley. But till they get one ... kiss the presidency bye-bye for 10 more years.

America’s not buying Big Oil’s global warming science denialism

Yes, the reason is obvious in a widely reported poll just released by Public Policy Polling: “The carbon emission reduction standards announced by President Obama yesterday are popular with voters across the country, and that voters have little tolerance for a presidential candidate in 2016 who doesn’t believe that climate change is caused by human activity. Crucial independent voters, in particular, are not sympathetic to the GOP’s climate skepticism.” And you bet Big Oil science deniers hate it.

The GOP has long dismissed Public Policy Polling as left-leaning, especially for conclusions about 2016: “Voters, and particularly independents, don’t have much tolerance for climate skeptics when it comes to the 2016 presidential race. Only 38% of voters say they’d be willing to support a candidate who doesn’t believe global warming is caused by human activity, and by an 11 point margin they say they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate.”

Yes, the GOP and its self-sabotaging alter ego, the tea party, are showing great energy in the recent internecine primary wars. But the appeal of extreme candidates to a narrow conservative base, will later have limited national appeal. And “when it comes to independents, just 29% would be open to supporting a climate skeptic.” In fact, “voters say by a 56/33 margin that they have more faith in the scientists than (Marco) Rubio when it comes to the issue of climate change.” Bad news for the GOP, because Big Oil will just demand more loyalty to their denialism.

And as this gap widens with shifting demographics, the GOP will either change or be marginalized. But keep resisting to the bitter end. Yes, Big Oil money is killing the GOP brand. This is really an ancient tale. So predictable. Blinded, neither addict nor supplier can stop cold turkey. So Big Oil and their Washington puppets will push global climate disasters till one-too-many triggers the big one. Pushing with bigger donations, demanding special treatment, tax breaks, soft regs. While the American public pays the price, then bottoms out, too late, a disaster, crash, massive economic pain.

So Big Oil will keep losing the GOP’s big prize ... till too late

Maybe losing a couple more presidential elections will be the wake-up call. But not soon enough. Not in 2014. Not even in 2016. Maybe not in 2024 with Big Oil calling the shots for the GOP. So yes, dependent on Big Oil money, the GOP will predictably lose the third straight time, probably to a woman, and for the “Old Boys” network running the Grand Old Party that means bigger bruises to their masculine egos.

Even worse, if the GOP doesn’t soon get with the dramatic shift in history. And a Democrat gets re-elected, she’ll be in office until 2024. Imagine the GOP’s pain with a Democrat sitting in the Oval Office a total of 16 years, from 2008 all the way to 2024. Seriously, imagine the election debates when GOP presidential candidates are relentlessly pressed by moderators, journalists and citizens with questions about global warming and failed climate-science denialism. Still, their answers must satisfy the Big Oil conservatives.

In the end, the GOP has no one to blame but themselves, for chasing Big Oil’s big bucks. They trapped themselves. Nor can Big Oil afford to get off the treadmill. They need to keep their money machine perpetually oiled with steady earnings every quarter, or they will die. So for now, it’s obvious the GOP is like every other addict, they’ve lost their objectivity, their credibility, their moral compass, their very soul. Not doing what’s right for the entire nation.

GOP can no longer think independently, as America drifts to the edge

But will the change occur ... in time? Or is the GOP too deep in a classic, dependent “bargain with the devil?” Selling its soul for money and an illusion of power? Will our Grand Old Party wake up in time, read the signs of history, reclaim its moral compass ... in time?

America is in a race against the clock. As environmental economist Bill McKibben put it in the Public Policy journal a few years ago, “it may already be too late.” And in “Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth about Climate Change,” ethics Prof. Clive Hamilton warns: “Global warming presents us with a uniquely challenging historical predicament. In the great struggles for universal suffrage and civil liberties, and against slavery and unjust wars, victory meant the end of the problem, or at least the beginning of the end of the problem. In the case of climate change, victory can come too late. A sudden awakening in a decade by governments and the people to the dangers of climate change will be too late; the global climate system will have shifted course and the future will have been taken out of our hands.”

Yes, another decade may be too late as we press the question: Will the GOP wake up, in time ... see history’s warnings, in time ... reclaim its moral compass, in time? Unfortunately, waiting till the presidential race of 2024 will be too late. Climate dangers will have gone too far. The future will be out of our hands ... wake up science deniers.