Republican presidential candidates can expect to spend Christmas in Iowa and New Hampshire this year, now that Florida is expected to hold its primary on Jan. 31.

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon, a Republican, said he expects a commission that meets Friday to set the state’s primary date for the last day in January. That would put Florida ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire, which by tradition vote first.

Since Iowa and New Hampshire now have contests set for February, they would likely move earlier in the calendar, into January, so as not to be upstaged by Florida.

“My goal all along is for Florida to preserve her place as the fifth spot on the nominating calendar and not to move ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire,” Mr. Cannon said. “I believe Jan. 31 is the best date to accomplish both of those goals.”