SO FAR this year Mexico’s government has resembled one of the country’s many devotees of St Jude, patron saint of lost causes. It has doggedly stuck to a 3.9% 2014 growth forecast, even though its main export market, the United States, has been sluggish, and the twin pillars of its domestic economy—buying and building—have fared even worse.

On May 21st the central bank revised its growth prediction down to 2.3-3.3%, from 3-4% previously. The government was expected finally to follow suit on May 23rd, when first-quarter GDP figures were due to be released. Even so, officials are convinced that within months the benefits of its plans to modernise the economy will start to show up in the numbers.

Mexicans have good reason to be sceptical. In President Enrique Peña Nieto’s first year, when he launched an impressive volley of constitutional reforms, the economy grew by a meagre 1.1%. His government said it would reinvigorate growth this year with a slug of deficit spending. Sure enough, public spending rose by 13.2% in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2013. But there has been a plunge in construction activity—including grandiose infrastructure projects supposedly kick-started by public money. Even government officials seem puzzled by how long it is taking for the spending to register.

In the shops, news is even worse. Antad, the organisation that represents supermarkets and convenience stores, says that in the first four months of 2014, total sales fell for the first time in 30 years. Manufacturing was brighter. Non-oil exports rose by 5.2% in the first three months, mainly to the United States. But recovery north of the border is not yet robust enough to rely on.

Perversely, Mr Peña Nieto’s reforms appear to weigh on growth in the short run, even if they promise eventual benefits. Take tax. A fiscal reform has raised income tax, affecting the well off. Policy has also disproportionately hurt the poor through an anti-obesity levy on soft drinks and snacks. As Jonathan Heath, an economist, puts it: “The government is spending more, but it took that money away from households.”

Investment is another example. Many firms have put expansion plans on hold until they see how the secondary legislation detailing the government’s constitutional changes turns out in Congress. This is particularly true in energy and telecoms, the two most important industries it has overhauled.

They may not have long to wait, thanks to two political breakthroughs. On May 16th lawmakers passed a reform aimed at increasing federal oversight of state elections. Though its own merits are debatable, the bill’s passage broke a long impasse in Congress, enabling discussions on energy and telecoms to resume. And on May 18th Gustavo Madero won re-election as head of the opposition National Action Party. He is a strong advocate of reform.

On the economy, Ernesto Revilla, the finance ministry’s chief economist, says green shoots are now emerging and that even the most gloomy forecasters predict a pickup in the second half of the year. Putting a brave face on things, he likens Mexico’s reform process to a house being remodelled. At the outset there is excitement. Then there is anger and frustration because it takes so long. That is the phase Mexico is now in. “But,” he says, “when it’s over everyone will be happier.”