Source: ABS Cat 8501.0, Deloitte Access Economics

Deloitte Access Economics partner, and Retail Forecasts principal author, David Rumbens, said: “Retail spending has fallen at the fastest rate in nearly 20 years as COVID-19 cast a cloud over the consumer landscape. Yet it pales in comparison to the collapse in total consumer spending experienced over the quarter.

“The average retail growth rate also hides the complexity of the retail environment right now. After slumping in April, spending picked up through the quarter, with June retail sales up 7.4% compared to the previous year. It also looks like that momentum has continued into the September quarter, with spending up 12.0% in July compared to the same month a year prior.

“And there is an enormous gulf in retail performance by sector. Restrictions have sent cafes, restaurants and catering services into a tailspin, with spending remaining over 20% lower than pre-COVID levels in the month of July.

“Meanwhile, with more people at home more of the time, spending on recreational goods, alcohol, electrical and electronic goods, and hardware, building and garden supplies have surged, with all posting more than 30% gains in the month of July compared to pre-COVID levels.”

Chart 2 - Change in nominal retail spending compared to pre-COVID levels