Christian Schneider

Opinion columnist

In Robert Bresson's classic 1966 film Au Hasard Balthazar, the life of a donkey is told through a series of story lines that contrast the wildly divergent scope of human emotions with the predictability of a simple farm animal. As the donkey ages, the humans in his life take turns revering him and abusing him as the circumstances in their own lives change. But through it all, he puts his head down and perseveres, forging the film's emotional center and exposing how situational human behavior can be.

It's difficult to consider President Trump a stabilizing force on anything. Throughout his presidency, he has been what everyone always thought he was — erratic, bombastic and thoroughly mendacious.

More:Do Hollywood's sexual predators deserve the artistic death penalty?

More:Donald Trump has a sickening fetish for cruelty

But in that sense Trump has been entirely predictable. And perhaps more interestingly, he has exposed how unpredictable the people around him can be. While Trump likes to make himself the story, it's the reaction to Trump from both his friends and foes, many of whom switch sides back and forth depending on the circumstance, that is perhaps most notable. (In Bresson's film, based on Fyodor Dostoyevsky's The Idiot, the donkey is said to represent Christ — a comparison Trump would likely not dissuade.)

Just take the theater of last week, when Republicans gathered at the White House to praise Trump after Congress passed a $1.5 trillion tax cut. Just a few months ago, Trump took to Twitter to attack Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for failing to pass Obamacare repeal in the Senate. Privately, McConnell expressed doubts that Trump would be able to salvage his presidency. Yet even after a late summer of bitter exchanges between the two, there stood McConnell a week ago at the tax event, grinning and clapping next to the president.

Perhaps no public turnabout has been more jarring than that of Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, the last plausible Republican candidate vanquished by Trump during the 2016 presidential primaries. Cruz, too, stood obediently on stage last week, feting a man who had once mocked his wife's looks, accused his father of conspiring to assassinate former president John F. Kennedy, and whom Cruz publicly deemed a "sniveling coward."

But for nearly a full year, GOP members have gritted their teeth and stroked the president's ego, fantasizing that the tax bill celebration at the White House would one day happen. They know full well the damage Trump has done to the Republican Party — damage that will most likely be felt during the 2018 midterm elections, after which many of the congressmen and women praising the value of the private sector will surely be forced to once again re-join it.

If Republicans lose control of the House and Senate in 2018 — shiny new tax cut notwithstanding, a very real possibility — Trump will, predictably, become a monster overnight. With no hope of passing bills to cut government or reform health care, Republican senators now praising Trump will begin to distance themselves from him, attempting to fumigate the party of his influence.

More:Trump isn't learning on the job, he just doesn't care

POLICING THE USA: A look at race, justice, media

While this new awakening is scheduled to occur on Nov. 6 of 2018, some senators have already gotten a jump on the proceedings. Namely, Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Flake of Arizona, who have already announced their retirement and thus no longer cast members in the charade. In October, Corker said Trump was "debasing" the nation; Flake called Trump's fight with Gold Star Families "disgraceful" and harshly criticized Trump's "bigotry" after white supremacist marches in Charlottesville, Va.

Once their own power is gone, other elected Republicans will similarly loose themselves from Trump's yoke, content to criticize him from the safety of the minority. In fact, there's no reason to believe that if the House and Senate go blue, Trump won't follow suit; he is a man without an ideological compass, more interested in taking credit for accomplishments than reforming government in a conservative way. Trump has already gone behind Republicans' backs to strike deals on immigration — there is no evidence he would veto Democratic bills and thus deny himself a victorious press conference.

Since the day he became a presidential candidate, Trump has been consistently himself. Yet the political ground continues to shift beneath him as critics and friends alike realign their allegiances based on their own interests. Like Balthazar, Trump will keep on doing what he knows. It's up to Republicans to decide how they respond to their own party's … donkey.

Christian Schneider is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors and a columnist for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow him on Twitter @Schneider_CM