THERE have been several failed rounds of talks to reunify Cyprus since 1974, so scepticism about the latest is in order. Yet this round seems the most propitious to date. Speaking at The Economist’s Cyprus conference on November 1st, President Nicos Anastasiades expressed optimism that a deal would be done by the end of the year. The United Nations special envoy, Espen Barth Eide, added that more progress had been made than in any previous talks.

Mr Anastasiades and his Turkish-Cypriot counterpart, Mustafa Akinci, have agreed on a structure for a loose bizonal, bicommunal federation. Next week they move to Switzerland to talk about territory. This will be tough for Mr Akinci, as the Turkish-Cypriots, who make up some 20% of the population, must give up some of the 37% of the island they control. The Greek-Cypriots want the region of Morphou, a dusty town surrounded by lemon groves, as well as Varosha, a ruined beach resort outside Famagusta, and they may bristle at being offered the rugged Karpas peninsula. Yet observers reckon the two leaders would not be going to Switzerland unless they were confident of agreement.

What has changed the atmosphere? For a start, the Cypriot economy has rebounded more strongly than expected from its 2013 financial meltdown: growth over the next three years is expected to be nearly double the euro-zone average. Discoveries of large gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean have helped, as they will be harder to exploit if the island stays divided. American pressure for a deal has made a difference. And above all, unlike in previous rounds, both Mr Anastasiades and Mr Akinci are extremely keen on an early settlement.

The long-term benefits are clear. Trade, tourism and construction would all boom. GDP per head might be 60% higher with a settlement than without, says Fiona Mullen of Sapienta Economics, a Nicosia consultancy. The geopolitical gains in an unstable region would also be large. The European Union badly needs good news, and settling its own frozen conflict would be that. Scratchy relations with Turkey would be improved, and an issue that has split NATO eliminated.

Sadly, the obstacles remain large. Once territory is agreed, the talks move to security and outside guarantees. This will bring Turkey’s unpredictable president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, into the picture, as 30,000 Turkish troops are stationed across the north. Ioannis Kassoulides, the Cypriot foreign minister, told this week’s conference that a sovereign Cyprus could not allow Turkey to keep any troops on the island. (Some political leaders also want to remove the two British sovereign military bases.) After an attempted coup this summer, Mr Erdogan is less than enthusiastic about his army. Yet he may see no reason to help an EU that is increasingly hostile to Turkey’s membership aspirations.

The biggest obstacle may be public opinion. In 2004 the Annan plan was accepted by both sides, but scuppered by a large negative vote in a Greek-Cypriot referendum. Plenty have denounced the latest talks as a mere rehash of the Annan plan. Young Greek-Cypriots who have no experience of a united island seem less sentimental than their elders about the border and about Nicosia being Europe’s last divided capital, and some fret over the cost of unification. This week, for the first time, the north and the south moved onto different time zones. The symbolism could hardly be starker.

The biggest reason for hope may lie in a question: if these two leaders cannot do a deal, can anybody else in future? Many Cyprus-watchers think the answer is no. Today’s settlement talks may be the best chance yet to reunify the island. They may also be the last one.