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You're probably asking yourself, "What the heck is WAR anyways?"



"Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic" (Source: Fangraphs.com). MLB statheads like to use this stat to try and calculate the value the team would lose if a certain player had to be replaced by a backup or free agent.



The way WAR is calculated by many websites is rather complicated, but my attempt here is going to be rather simple. It's far more difficult to quantify the performance of a NFL player than a MLB player just because of the wide array of stats baseball players accrue. So for this experiment, I'm going to use PFF ratings only because that's the only method I have that can put all players on the same grading scale (I apologize for using PFF grades so often, but they're basically all I have to do this). This also means that I will not include punters and kickers as I don't have a great way to compare their performances to the rest of the players. Perhaps they could be added later.



First what I'll have to do for this experiment is to find what replacement level actually is. It falls somewhere between the "average" player and "worst" player at each position. After tinkering with several numbers, I have decided to use 35% as the cutoff for replacement level. If a player is worse than 65% of the other players at his position, then he is a "sub-replacement" player and he will carry a negative value.



Ranking all players wasn't easy - I took every single snap played by every single player (even the guys who recorded a total of one snap on the season) and I was able to find replacement level at 35%. Here are the results:











As you can see, some positions, like QB and S, had far superior play and will limit the WAR of players that those positions. That's just how the cookie is going to crumble for this experiement.



Now it's time to calculate the WAR. First I will calculate "PFF grade above Replacement" by subtracting the player's PFF grade minues the replacement level PFF grade shown above. Next, that number will be multiplied by the number of snaps the player played, so their WAR will be amplified by how often they were on the field. Finally, this new value will be multiplied by "Position Weight", which is a way that I can give more value to a certain position. Here is how I did it:



Position Weight



QB - 2.5



HB - 1.3



FB - 0.7



WR - 1.3



TE - 1



LT - 1.5



G - 1



C - 1.1



RT - 1.3



DE - 1.2



Rotational DE - 0.8



DT - 1



Rotational DT - 0.9



LB - 1.1



Base LB - 0.9



Outside CB - 1.2



Nickel CB - 1



FS - 1.2



SS - 1.1





So yes, these measures were incredibly subjective and I picked out the numbers myself. If this were a professional experiment, I would need to thoroughly justify how I came up with all these numbers, but since we're doing this just for fun, I'm not going to spend the time doing so. I can basically manipulate these numbers however I like, but I tried to keep things fair from my viewpoint.



Finally, to calculate the WAR, I divided the subtotal by a number that would allow all values to add up to 14, because that's how many games the Vikings won. That isn't how WAR works in the MLB, but that's not my concern right now. Let's take a look at how the QB position turned out:











So by my [admittedly sketchy] methods, Case Keenum has turned out to be worth 1 and 1/8 Wins Above Replacement. In translation, if the Vikings started a replacement level QB (2017 Joe Flacco) for 92% of the snaps instead of Keenum, they would have lost approximately 1 more game. This might not sound like a big difference, but one win is worth an incredible amount of value in the NFL. This this case, Keenum was responsible for about 8% of the Vikings' wins.



Here are the rest of the results for the Vikings:











And for your viewing pleasure, here are the players ranked by WAR:











-quick analysis-





Some players ended up getting underrated due to league-wide play being good at a position (Joseph at 0.53 is way too low) or bad at a position (Rudolph at 1.22 is generous IMO).



The combo of Diggs and Thielen at WR totaled out to be worth 3.27 WAR. When Diggs was hurt, they got sub-replacement level play from Treadwell, who accrued a -0.4 WAR. Michael Floyd catches a lot of flak but he barely played and was only worth -0.04 WAR. In translation, according to my model, Treadwell's play was 10 times more detrimental to the team than Floyd's play.



The offensive line did not get much love from PFF and it shows here. With good guard play rare in the NFL in this era, Joe Berger (1.68 WAR) was a great value for his salary. The Vikings need to find an impact guard who can sustain that level of play. Easton totaled a -.14 WAR, but I wonder if he could step his play up to another level in a second full season starting in 2018. Same goes for Elflein. Reiff would have been in the green if his season ended Week 9-10, but in the second half his play dropped off and became a liability (-0.25 WAR).



Perhaps the Vikings could find a better DT next to Joseph as Tom Johnson was fairly average (0.1 WAR) and Shamar Stephen wasn't that good (-0.05 WAR).



Our LBs scored highly here because of poor LB play in the NFL. Kendricks (1.29 WAR) and Barr (1.02 WAR) had their share of great games and bad ones, but it's for the best that they stick together for the 2018 season. I would try to extend Kendricks but I'd probably pass on Barr, who's likely going to be more expensive.



Perhaps it's time to move on from Brian Robison? He played a large share of snaps and was the 2nd worst player due to WAR (-0.5). I think he gets knocked for playing poorly at DT when he shifts there on passing downs.



Alrighty then, I hope you enjoyed this statistical romp that produced some interesting but ultimately not very accurate numbers. As always, all comments are welcome. I'd like to know what you thought about my experiment.



-By the way, if you would like to see what other players' WARs for 2017 were, I'd be happy to calculate it (Kirk Cousins and other QBs perhaps?).





Sources: Pro Football Focus, Fangraphs Ready for something completely out of left field? Speaking of left field, it actually has something to do with baseball. A while back I had the idea of trying to implement the advanced statistic called WAR that is commonly used in baseball and try and translate it into the NFL. So I've set some time aside to conduct a fun experiment that will most likely result in any viable or realistic statistics.You're probably asking yourself, "What the heck is WAR anyways?""Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic" (Source: Fangraphs.com). MLB statheads like to use this stat to try and calculate the value the team would lose if a certain player had to be replaced by a backup or free agent.The way WAR is calculated by many websites is rather complicated, but my attempt here is going to be rather simple. It's far more difficult to quantify the performance of a NFL player than a MLB player just because of the wide array of stats baseball players accrue. So for this experiment, I'm going to use PFF ratings only because that's the only method I have that can put all players on the same grading scale (I apologize for using PFF grades so often, but they're basically all I have to do this). This also means that I will not include punters and kickers as I don't have a great way to compare their performances to the rest of the players. Perhaps they could be added later.First what I'll have to do for this experiment is to find what replacement level actually is. It falls somewhere between the "average" player and "worst" player at each position. After tinkering with several numbers, I have decided to use 35% as the cutoff for replacement level. If a player is worse than 65% of the other players at his position, then he is a "sub-replacement" player and he will carry a negative value.Ranking all players wasn't easy - I took every single snap played by every single player (even the guys who recorded a total of one snap on the season) and I was able to find replacement level at 35%. Here are the results:As you can see, some positions, like QB and S, had far superior play and will limit the WAR of players that those positions. That's just how the cookie is going to crumble for this experiement.Now it's time to calculate the WAR. First I will calculate "PFF grade above Replacement" by subtracting the player's PFF grade minues the replacement level PFF grade shown above. Next, that number will be multiplied by the number of snaps the player played, so their WAR will be amplified by how often they were on the field. Finally, this new value will be multiplied by "Position Weight", which is a way that I can give more value to a certain position. Here is how I did it:Position WeightQB - 2.5HB - 1.3FB - 0.7WR - 1.3TE - 1LT - 1.5G - 1C - 1.1RT - 1.3DE - 1.2Rotational DE - 0.8DT - 1Rotational DT - 0.9LB - 1.1Base LB - 0.9Outside CB - 1.2Nickel CB - 1FS - 1.2SS - 1.1So yes, these measures were incredibly subjective and I picked out the numbers myself. If this were a professional experiment, I would need to thoroughly justify how I came up with all these numbers, but since we're doing this just for fun, I'm not going to spend the time doing so. I can basically manipulate these numbers however I like, but I tried to keep things fair from my viewpoint.Finally, to calculate the WAR, I divided the subtotal by a number that would allow all values to add up to 14, because that's how many games the Vikings won. That isn't how WAR works in the MLB, but that's not my concern right now. Let's take a look at how the QB position turned out:So by my [admittedly sketchy] methods, Case Keenum has turned out to be worth 1 and 1/8 Wins Above Replacement. In translation, if the Vikings started a replacement level QB (2017 Joe Flacco) for 92% of the snaps instead of Keenum, they would have lost approximately 1 more game. This might not sound like a big difference, but one win is worth an incredible amount of value in the NFL. This this case, Keenum was responsible for about 8% of the Vikings' wins.Here are the rest of the results for the Vikings:And for your viewing pleasure, here are the players ranked by WAR:-quick analysis-Some players ended up getting underrated due to league-wide play being good at a position (Joseph at 0.53 is way too low) or bad at a position (Rudolph at 1.22 is generous IMO).The combo of Diggs and Thielen at WR totaled out to be worth 3.27 WAR. When Diggs was hurt, they got sub-replacement level play from Treadwell, who accrued a -0.4 WAR. Michael Floyd catches a lot of flak but he barely played and was only worth -0.04 WAR. In translation, according to my model, Treadwell's play was 10 times more detrimental to the team than Floyd's play.The offensive line did not get much love from PFF and it shows here. With good guard play rare in the NFL in this era, Joe Berger (1.68 WAR) was a great value for his salary. The Vikings need to find an impact guard who can sustain that level of play. Easton totaled a -.14 WAR, but I wonder if he could step his play up to another level in a second full season starting in 2018. Same goes for Elflein. Reiff would have been in the green if his season ended Week 9-10, but in the second half his play dropped off and became a liability (-0.25 WAR).Perhaps the Vikings could find a better DT next to Joseph as Tom Johnson was fairly average (0.1 WAR) and Shamar Stephen wasn't that good (-0.05 WAR).Our LBs scored highly here because of poor LB play in the NFL. Kendricks (1.29 WAR) and Barr (1.02 WAR) had their share of great games and bad ones, but it's for the best that they stick together for the 2018 season. I would try to extend Kendricks but I'd probably pass on Barr, who's likely going to be more expensive.Perhaps it's time to move on from Brian Robison? He played a large share of snaps and was the 2nd worst player due to WAR (-0.5). I think he gets knocked for playing poorly at DT when he shifts there on passing downs.Alrighty then, I hope you enjoyed this statistical romp that produced some interesting but ultimately not very accurate numbers. As always, all comments are welcome. I'd like to know what you thought about my experiment.-By the way, if you would like to see what other players' WARs for 2017 were, I'd be happy to calculate it (Kirk Cousins and other QBs perhaps?).Sources: Pro Football Focus, Fangraphs

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www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/indexd961.html?page_id=8061



I always wanted to do something similar, like a +/- stat from hockey but for football, but I don't have access to the necessary data. I'd need to know which players were on the field for every single snap.



How does your WAR translate to other teams if you're using a number to get the subtotal to a number specific to the Vikings, like 14 wins? Would this variable be different for each team? Good stuff Danny boy! This reminds me of PFR's AV (approximate value). Maybe you've seen it?I always wanted to do something similar, like a +/- stat from hockey but for football, but I don't have access to the necessary data. I'd need to know which players were on the field for every single snap.How does your WAR translate to other teams if you're using a number to get the subtotal to a number specific to the Vikings, like 14 wins? Would this variable be different for each team?

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Member Back to Top Post by Danchat on Reignman said:



www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/indexd961.html?page_id=8061



I always wanted to do something similar, like a +/- stat from hockey but for football, but I don't have access to the necessary data. I'd need to know which players were on the field for every single snap.



How does your WAR translate to other teams if you're using a number to get the subtotal to a number specific to the Vikings, like 14 wins? Would this variable be different for each team? Good stuff Danny boy! This reminds me of PFR's AV (approximate value). Maybe you've seen it?I always wanted to do something similar, like a +/- stat from hockey but for football, but I don't have access to the necessary data. I'd need to know which players were on the field for every single snap.How does your WAR translate to other teams if you're using a number to get the subtotal to a number specific to the Vikings, like 14 wins? Would this variable be different for each team?



In theory, yes, I think that the WAR would change with team wins... but of course, we have the Browns with zero wins. But there would still be a few players with positive WAR even on that team, but the negatives would total the positives and equal zero. Scaling the amount of WAR to wins has more problems I can think of, and that explains why the actual stat doesn't scale to wins. I don't think I've actually seen this AV stat before. It looks appropriately complicated, that's for sure. I'll have to take a closer look another time.In theory, yes, I think that the WAR would change with team wins... but of course, we have the Browns with zero wins. But there would still be a few players with positive WAR even on that team, but the negatives would total the positives and equal zero. Scaling the amount of WAR to wins has more problems I can think of, and that explains why the actual stat doesn't scale to wins.

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Member Back to Top Post by Danchat on VikingsBoss said:



Yeah, neither PFF or WAR are worth much in my book. Fact is, PFF knows no more about the game plan, and therefore what the coaches expect than you or I, so their grades are dubious at best. Remember the Carolina game...when Keenum threw two picks and a spiraling fumble? 3 turnovers by any judgement should be a bad game...but PFF graded him pretty highly. PFF grades, despite what everybody associated with PFF wants you to think, are not the be-all end-all of professional football evaluation. And how does Teddy Bridgewater and his 6 snaps, 2 pass attempts and interception rate higher than Sam Bradford's 350 yards and 3 TDs? Elflein is way down at the bottom, but it would be hard to argue the line wasn't better in the games he played.Yeah, neither PFF or WAR are worth much in my book. Fact is, PFF knows no more about the game plan, and therefore what the coaches expect than you or I, so their grades are dubious at best. Remember the Carolina game...when Keenum threw two picks and a spiraling fumble? 3 turnovers by any judgement should be a bad game...but PFF graded him pretty highly. PFF grades, despite what everybody associated with PFF wants you to think, are not the be-all end-all of professional football evaluation.



I had similar thoughts about Bradford's PFF grade - if I recall correctly, he notched a 90-91 grade from the Saints game, and then his grade dropped all the way down to 68.9 just from the two quarters of football against the Bears. According to PFF, Bradford's play in Chicago was so bad that it dropped his grade from Elite to Below Average. Teddy only played 6 snaps so he will only make a tiny "bloop" in WAR. I also wonder if PFF didn't knock Teddy or Keenum for their interceptions that were thrown too high and their receivers popped them up? (Keenum threw one just like Teddy's to Diggs in that aforementioned Carolina game). Depending on how you view those plays (was it McKinnon/Diggs' fault?) you could knock the PFF grading system for being lenient on QBs. Yup, that's one of the big issues with PFF grades as it's hard to grade guys if they were correctly following a bad gameplan. I've made sure to note several times that PFF grades should not be blindly trusted as the "end-all be-all" and I certainly don't agree with all of their grades. They're just another metric that can be used, and as I mentioned in the article, they were the easiest way to make this comparison.I had similar thoughts about Bradford's PFF grade - if I recall correctly, he notched a 90-91 grade from the Saints game, and then his grade dropped all the way down to 68.9 just from the two quarters of football against the Bears. According to PFF, Bradford's play in Chicago was so bad that it dropped his grade from Elite to Below Average. Teddy only played 6 snaps so he will only make a tiny "bloop" in WAR. I also wonder if PFF didn't knock Teddy or Keenum for their interceptions that were thrown too high and their receivers popped them up? (Keenum threw one just like Teddy's to Diggs in that aforementioned Carolina game). Depending on how you view those plays (was it McKinnon/Diggs' fault?) you could knock the PFF grading system for being lenient on QBs.

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Member Back to Top Post by Funkytown on VikingsBoss said:



Yeah, neither PFF or WAR are worth much in my book. Fact is, PFF knows no more about the game plan, and therefore what the coaches expect than you or I, so their grades are dubious at best. Remember the Carolina game...when Keenum threw two picks and a spiraling fumble? 3 turnovers by any judgement should be a bad game...but PFF graded him pretty highly. PFF grades, despite what everybody associated with PFF wants you to think, are not the be-all end-all of professional football evaluation. And how does Teddy Bridgewater and his 6 snaps, 2 pass attempts and interception rate higher than Sam Bradford's 350 yards and 3 TDs? Elflein is way down at the bottom, but it would be hard to argue the line wasn't better in the games he played.Yeah, neither PFF or WAR are worth much in my book. Fact is, PFF knows no more about the game plan, and therefore what the coaches expect than you or I, so their grades are dubious at best. Remember the Carolina game...when Keenum threw two picks and a spiraling fumble? 3 turnovers by any judgement should be a bad game...but PFF graded him pretty highly.

Not one grading system is, but some are definitely better than others!





Not one grading system is, but some are definitely better than others!

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Member Back to Top Post by Danchat on diehardtwinsfan said:



But that said, this was a nice start.



One thing I'd like to know is why we seemed to love Eflein, but PFF hated him... That shows up here given his poor PFF grade. I'm guessing at some point, more sources need factoring in. the beauty of these types of things is that it's a start... and a good one. I think WAR in baseball has it's flaws, but as it gets refined, many of those flaws get worked out. Biggest flaw I see here is that there's not much of an account for sample size. The Teddy/Sam comparison is a good example. No way Sam was worse that Teddy last year. The other problem is that NFL is far more a team sport than baseball.But that said, this was a nice start.One thing I'd like to know is why we seemed to love Eflein, but PFF hated him... That shows up here given his poor PFF grade. I'm guessing at some point, more sources need factoring in.



Elite: 2 players

Great: 1 player

Good: 3 players

Average: 7 players

Below average: 3 players

Poor: 20 players



I don't think Elflein is as big of a liability as PFF states he was, though I'd need to watch the tape to confirm that. One thing about Elflein's score is that PFF grades centers [and basically all offensive linemen] lower than the average position. At center, the distribution is:Elite: 2 playersGreat: 1 playerGood: 3 playersAverage: 7 playersBelow average: 3 playersPoor: 20 playersI don't think Elflein is as big of a liability as PFF states he was, though I'd need to watch the tape to confirm that.

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While I'm at it, I'll address the other additions to the team:



Danchat said: Perhaps the Vikings could find a better DT next to Joseph as Tom Johnson was fairly average (0.1 WAR) and Shamar Stephen wasn't that good (-0.05 WAR).



It's difficult to calculate my version of WAR now that players have moved teams (I'm not going to re-assemble the entire Seahawks squad to figure this number out), but I project Richardson to be worth + 0.323 WAR. That's if he plays roughly 65% of the snaps like he did in Seattle. Plus if he can notch more sacks and play more like he did earlier in his career, that number will be higher.



Danchat said: -By the way, if you would like to see what other players' WARs for 2017 were, I'd be happy to calculate it (Kirk Cousins and other QBs perhaps?).



I should have calculated the whole Redskins squad to find Cousins' number, but back then the idea of him landing on our team was still pie in the sky. The WAR numbers aren't looking good right now, as I project him to only be worth + 0.262 WAR. Now obviously there is a metric ton of context needed with that stat, as it's based off of Cousins' average 2017 season. There are many reasons to believe that his play will at least reach Keenum's + 1.1 WAR.



Finally, if Kendall Wright gets 55% of the snaps like he did in Chicago (and it's possible here because Treadwell played a whopping 53%), he's projected to be worth +0.634 WAR. Replacement level for WRs is very low compared to QB (despite the ongoing narrative that QB play in the NFL is bad), so Kendall's good play gets rewarded. If the Vikings can replace Treadwell's -0.4 WAR with Wright's +0.6, that's a net gain of 1 win, which is an enormous gain.



But of course I'm just playing with numbers in theoretical situations that have little to no bearing to reality. You know my system is full of BS when Kendall is projected to be 3 times more valuable than Cousins. Looking back at my article, I just wanted to note that the Vikings just so happened to add Tom Compton, who was mentioned as the Replacement Level Guard. So by my model, he does not add any positive or negative value.While I'm at it, I'll address the other additions to the team:It's difficult to calculate my version of WAR now that players have moved teams (I'm not going to re-assemble the entire Seahawks squad to figure this number out), but I project Richardson to be worth + 0.323 WAR. That's if he plays roughly 65% of the snaps like he did in Seattle. Plus if he can notch more sacks and play more like he did earlier in his career, that number will be higher.I should have calculated the whole Redskins squad to find Cousins' number, but back then the idea of him landing on our team was still pie in the sky. The WAR numbers aren't looking good right now, as I project him to only be worth + 0.262 WAR. Now obviously there is a metric ton of context needed with that stat, as it's based off of Cousins' average 2017 season. There are many reasons to believe that his play will at least reach Keenum's + 1.1 WAR.Finally, if Kendall Wright gets 55% of the snaps like he did in Chicago (and it's possible here because Treadwell played a whopping 53%), he's projected to be worth +0.634 WAR. Replacement level for WRs is very low compared to QB (despite the ongoing narrative that QB play in the NFL is bad), so Kendall's good play gets rewarded. If the Vikings can replace Treadwell's -0.4 WAR with Wright's +0.6, that's a net gain of 1 win, which is an enormous gain.But of course I'm just playing with numbers in theoretical situations that have little to no bearing to reality. You know my system is full of BS when Kendall is projected to be 3 times more valuable than Cousins.