The two marquee names on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, are both slated for unrestricted free agency next July. Which means somewhere out there are agents and lawyers working for the players and on management’s side, furiously trying to determine exactly what the two are worth and what kind of contract each can reasonably expect on the open market.

Here’s an educated guess at where they’re going to end up.

Phil Kessel

I believe the market indicates that the 25-year-old Phil Kessel is valued at approximately $8.1 million per season on a max contract, which would be eight years with the Leafs and seven with anyone else. This assessment is based on what the market has paid for elite scorers in recent seasons.

Kessel has been one of the top snipers in the NHL over the last five seasons. Over the past two seasons he has been sixth and eighth in scoring with 82 and 52 points respectively. Since 2008-09, he has the ninth most goals (155) in the NHL and is one of five players to have scored at least 30 goals in each of the past five seasons (pro-rating the 17 in this past year’s shortened season). Those are elite-player numbers.

Taking away Pavel Datsyuk, Patrick Elias, Jarome Iginla and Chris Kunitz — whose latest contracts begin after they turned 35 years old — six players have signed unrestricted free agents contracts while being amongst the top 10 in scoring in at least one of the last three seasons. They are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Ilya Kovalchuk, Corey Perry and Brad Richards.

The annual average salary of these players is $8.1 million per season, a number which would certainly be higher if Crosby didn’t take a discount, and the now retired Kovalchuk and Richards didn’t sign cap-circumventing contracts paying them significantly less money on the back-end of their contracts.

While each of these players may have more of an overall impact on the game than Kessel, aside from Giroux, they all signed contracts that take them through the age of at least 36.

Kessel will be 34 at the end of a max contract, significantly increasing the likelihood that he will continue to perform at a high level throughout the deal.

Recently, the oft-injured Alex Semin signed a contract with the Carolina Hurricanes paying him $7 million annually. If he is worth seven, shouldn’t Kessel who is younger, healthier, and quite frankly better over the past three seasons get paid more?

The point is not to say that the Leafs should pony up this money. The team’s management will have to decide for themselves on that front. The point is to say that some team would be prepared to offer Kessel that kind of money on the open market.

The premium price for goal scoring is not only in the unrestricted free agent market, but is also evident in restricted free agency as well. Examples of teams extending their goal scoring RFAs include Logan Couture at five years and $30 million, Jordan Eberle six years and $36 million, and Taylor Hall, seven years and $42 million. All of these players have shown less in their careers than Kessel, and had at least three more seasons of restricted status, hurting their leverage.

Teams are willing to pay more to eat away at some unrestricted free agency years because scoring is such a valuable commodity in the NHL, and Kessel will surely get handsomely paid as one of the best in the business.

Dion Phaneuf

Defenceman Dion Phaneuf’s value going forward is also a hot topic. Aside from Kimmo Timonen, Dan Boyle, and Andrei Markov — all on the wrong side of 35 — Phaneuf is the only available defenceman who carries significant offensive value. Significantly, he is 28.

So what is he worth? I think the market dictates Phaneuf’s value at approximately five years and $34.5 million for an average of $6.9 million. It is in his interest to look for a deal that would take him to 34, allowing his next contract to kick in before the 35+ contract clause kicks in. Such a contract makes him more marketable to teams on a new long-term contract at that point in his career.

Over each of the last two seasons, Phaneuf has ranked in the top 15 in both points and time on ice amongst defenceman. The only other players to do that were Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, Brian Campbell and Kris Letang (officially 17th in 2012 scoring, but with 42 points in 51 games I’ll include him). The average of those four players is above $7.4 million.

The biggest difference between these players and my assessment of Phaneuf’s salary demands is the length of the contract. Suter and Weber both signed deals upwards of ten years, paying them until they are over 40, Campbell 37, and Letang just signed an eight year contract, the max under the new CBA, to stay in Pittsburgh. So while these players may be more valuable, they all have at least $20 million more guaranteed on their contracts.

Another point worth noting about Phaneuf is that he was one of three d-men who played 3:00 per game both on the PP and SH (Oliver Ekmann-Larsson and Paul Martin) this past season.

So if Phaneuf is in the company of such elite talents why does market value dictate that he makes less than the others? Aside from the foolishness of citing polls that place Phaneuf as the most overrated player by his peers, there are some limitations to his game that would be discussed in any negotiation.

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He led the league this past year in giveaways with 53. His increase in goal scoring this past season may be correlated to a shooting percentage nearly double his career percentage as a Maple Leaf. Also, without getting too involved in advanced statistics, Phaneuf’s Corsi Rel (a measure of difference in shots attempted by your team versus opponents when you are on the ice compared to when you are not) which historically has been okay, was by far the worst of any member of the Leafs regular defenceman last season.

That being said, $6.8 million would still place him at the seventh highest cap hit in the NHL right behind Bruins captain Zdeno Chara. Being the top overall defenceman next off-season will put Phaneuf in the right place at the right time for a major payday.

A.J. Warner is originally from Toronto. An aspiring player agent, he is now studying at the New York University of Law.

What do you think?

What do you think?

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