Tony Stewart won in Dover on Sunday (his first win in 30 starts), and NASCAR nation seemed to lose its collective mind.

For some reason NASCAR fans are shocked that Stewart was able to win. The victory has breathed life into the notion that “Smoke” may even make the Chase this year, a possibility that, before this weekend, seemed about as likely as Stewart modeling in next year’s Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition.

Here’s the thing, though. No one should be shocked. In fact, if you aren’t betting on Stewart to make the Chase, you’re nuts.

Sure, in 2013 with the new Gen 6 car, Stewart hasn’t been great. In fact, before Sunday’s win in Dover, “Smoke” had just two top-10 finishes and no top-three finishes. This isn’t news though. Stewart has never driven that well in the first third of the season.

Get this: of his 48 career wins over his 15-year career, only six of them have ever come before May 31.

If history is any indicator, “Smoke” is getting ready to catch fire. Over the course of his career, Stewart has dominated in the summer and into the fall. He has nine career wins in July and eight in October. In fact, from June to November, his weakest career month is September, where he has five wins.

Any NASCAR fan worth his salt has to be impressed by these numbers. How can you discount Stewart with Watkins Glenn (he has five career wins there) and Daytona (four career wins) still on the schedule?

You can’t.

You can't ever really count him out. Just look at what he did two seasons ago. In 2011 he won five races, but his first win didn't come until Chicago in September. He also won his third Sprint Cup that season.

It’s always odd to see a former champion have a slow start, but after 15 seasons, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Stewart is on the outside looking in at the start of the summer.

On Sunday, he moved into the No. 1 wild card spot for the Chase, and he currently trails Paul Menard by 33 points for the No. 10 spot in the standings. Anything can happen, but if you buy into history and you believe the numbers, you almost have to believe that Stewart is going to make it.

“Smoke” has been notoriously slow in the spring, but just like the weather, he heats up in the summer. The numbers don’t lie. Tony Stewart will be Chasing come September.

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