NEW DELHI: With the Election Commission set to announce polls in Bihar, indications are that the state will have a new assembly in place before Diwali, which falls on November 11 this year.

According to sources involved in discussions with the EC on force logistics, polling may be held over five phases starting in the second week of October and ending in the first week of November.

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Depending on the results, it might be either a cheerful or cheerless Diwali for main combatants RJD-JD(U)-Congress and the rival BJP-led alliance locked in a keen contest being seen as a major test for NDA and its “secular” opponents.

The state results can have a bearing on the government’s efforts to push reforms through Parliament where a bitter deadlock has stalled the GST and land bills with Congress opposing the measures over its demand for the resignation of senior BJP members over alleged corruption cases.

The polls will be conducted under a thick security blanket with as many as 50,000 central paramilitary forces likely to keep watch. Intelligence reports indicate possible law and order situations on account of the keenly-fought battle, which the EC has taken note of and has sought adequate forces to ensure a free and fair poll .

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TOI has learnt that the full commission is likely to finalize the Bihar poll dates at its meeting on Tuesday, paving the way for announcement of the much-awaited democratic exercise. While the tenure of the Bihar assembly ends on November 29, the onset of Diwali festivities on November 9, followed by the major festival of Chhath – widely observed in Bihar -- on November 17-18, has left little scope for extending polling beyond these dates.

A commission official had earlier indicated to TOI that the poll watchdog would give a week or two for government formation. Thus, there is little chance of polling stretching until after Chhath festivities. Indications are that counting may be held in early November, and the poll exercise completed well ahead of Diwali.

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In case Bihar polls are declared in the next few days, the gap between their announcement and first phase of polling may be just about a month. The EC has of late compressed the interval between announcement of the poll and start of polling.

In the last general election, while the announcement was made on March 5, 2014, the first phase of polling was scheduled for April 7. Similarly, in the Delhi assembly polls held earlier this year, there was a 26-day gap between announcement on January 12 and polling on February 7. Even the Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections were announced on September 12, 2014, and polling held in a single phase on October 15, 2014.

Complete coverage: Bihar assembly polls

The smaller gap between the announcement and actual poll ensures a lesser period of enforcement of the model code of conduct, which restricts the government from taking key policy decisions.

