Assault on stronghold, thought to be where Istanbul attack was planned, will soon be over, say Erdoğan and Free Syria Army

Turkey has said the operation to retake the Syrian town of al-Bab, Islamic State’s westernmost stronghold, will be “finished soon” after launching the most intensive bombardment of the four-month campaign in the days after the Istanbul nightclub attack.

Using jets and artillery, Turkish officials claimed to have killed scores of Isis members following the shooting dead of 39 people in an attack on new year revellers claimed by Isis. The ground assault is being led by members of the Free Syria Army, which has carved out a swath of influence for Ankara in northern Syria as its troops have pushed towards al-Bab.

Isis claims Istanbul nightclub attack as perpetrator remains at large Read more

Fresh from propelling Iranian-backed forces to victory over opposition groups in Aleppo, Russia is now also turning its guns on al-Bab and launched airstrikes south of the town.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkish president, on Wednesday claimed that final moves to retake it would start soon, while Free Syria Army members said the battle would be over within days.

Isis has been withdrawing its senior fighters east towards Raqqa over the past two weeks and has left more junior members of the organisation to defend against the attacks. As the area it controls continues to shrink, holding al-Bab has become less of an imperative for Isis and the group’s remaining energies are being focused on its two main centres of gravity, Raqqa and Mosul.

Nevertheless, the loss of al-Bab would be the most significant blow Isis has faced in the two and a half years it has rampaged across north-eastern Syria and much of Iraq. The town remained central to its foreign attack planning and a key pillar of its projection towards Syria and Turkey.



Istanbul nightclub attack caps off dreadful year for Turkey Read more

The group’s external operations arm is based in al-Bab, and is of high interest to European intelligence officials, who believe that the Isis-led terror attacks in Paris, Brussels, Nice and Berlin were planned and directed from the town. The Istanbul strike is also thought to have been inspired in al-Bab, although officials are yet to confirm the alleged gunman’s connections.

Isis has used al-Bab as a launching pad for incursions towards the eastern Aleppo outskirts and to send its members into Idlib province and towards the Turkish border. The group’s former propaganda chief, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, was based there until he was killed by a US drone late last year.

Its capture would also allow Turkey and Russia to begin to credibly claim that they are primarily involved in Syria to combat Isis – a stated intention of both sides, which until now has not been supported across Syria’s battlefields. Turkey has instead focused its energies on denying Syrian Kurdish groups an Arab area of the border region, which would bolster the PKK, whose insurgency it is fighting in Turkey. Russia has meanwhile invested much in securing Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power by targeting all other elements of the armed opposition against him.

Neither side has shown the same commitment to fighting Isis that they have devoted to their more pressing foes. However, that is now changing. Enraged by the Istanbul attack, and with Kurdish ambitions countered for now, al-Bab looms as a gateway for Turkey to avenge Istanbul and launch a full-throated push to counter a group it now sees as a threat every bit as existential as the Kurds.

Russia too has reason for renewed focus. With the anti-Assad opposition all but defeated, its attempts to finish off the extremists have now begun in earnest.

Another imperative is driving both former foes, now strong allies – countering US ambitions. The Obama administration had in the past two years kept its interest in Syria narrowly confined to tackling Isis, and on using as its ground force the same Kurds that Turkey has been fighting.

The US-backed Kurds have pushed towards Raqqa from the north. However, senior regional diplomats have told the Guardian that Washington has assured Ankara it will go no further before the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president on 20 January.

Before then, Turkey and Russia stand to take ownership of the Isis fight, particularly inside Syria. If al-Bab falls, Erdoğan could then claim to have liberated two Syrian towns – Jarabulus being the other one. The offensive would geographically isolate Raqqa, but – more importantly for each protagonist – politically damage Barack Obama, and box in his successor.

Turkey on Wednesday intensified its feud with the US, claiming that Washington has not been providing it with air cover in al-Bab and that a failure to back its offensive could lead it to deny access to the İncirlik air base in southern Turkey.

Such a move would make the US campaign against Isis more difficult and costly. However, with Trump’s outlook appearing to align with Vladimir Putin on Syria, Isis and much else in the Middle East, it remains unlikely. Instead, Russia and Turkey’s alliance of convenience is likely to be reinforced in al-Bab, as is the realisation that Isis is on the wane in Syria, and the US is not calling the shots.