Black Monday is the first big step for every rebuilding team trying to get back to the playoffs. It’s an opportunity to replace a Jeff Fisher with a Sean McVay and completely turn around the franchise. The biggest issue is that teams have to be willing to make that jump. That jump from what they know to uncertainty (Bengals). So right before Black Monday, I’ve decided to take a look at where all 32 HCs stand before it’s time to purge.

The Locks

Locks include playoff teams and those who’ll get one last crack at it next season to work out the kinks. I’ve spotted 16 coaches who, undoubtedly, will remain with their respective clubs next year. They are Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Anthony Lynn, Jon Gruden, John Harbaugh, Bill O’Brien, Frank Reich, Mike Vrabel, Jason Garrett, Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, Pete Caroll, Kyle Shanahan, Matt Nagy, Mike Zimmer, and Sean Payton.

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I really don’t see a way that any of these coaches are fired on Monday. 14 of these 16 teams are either in the playoffs or competing on Sunday. The other two are led by coaches (Gruden and Shanahan) who’ve already been identified as the long-term options and will be given multiple seasons to build a contender.

The Almost Locks

To me, almost locks are basically brand new head coaches, who I feel always deserve a second season, and the coaches with past success are given a chance to prove their shortcomings this year were a fluke. I’ve only identified six coaches here for this one. They are Pat Shurmur, Matt Patricia, Dan Quinn, Steve Wilks, Adam Gase, and Jay Gruden.

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Again, I think that Shurmur, Patricia, and Wilks are automically deserving of a second season. However, one of those franchises, especially Arizona, could move in a different direction quickly.

Quinn is the previously described coach with previous success, and I think it’d be foolish to dismiss him after one season of injuries and mediocre football.

Gase and Gruden, however, are interesting cases because, while Miami and Washington certainly weren’t fantastic, I think they exceeded a lot of expectations. It wouldn’t make sense to fire a guy who’s proven to do more with less when there’s no guarantee the next coach can do anything close.

The Real 50/50s

The name says it all here. I think there are eight interesting cases to look into.

For starters, you have Ron Rivera and Mike Tomlin. These coaches made the playoffs last year. They’ve been to Super Bowls. Both dropped the ball this year when they were in great spots. Should Pittsburgh make the playoffs, this should be all but dismissed, but that seems unlikely at this moment. Rivera, on the other hand, looks like he’s about to lose eight straight after starting 6-2 and is going to have to rely on past success for the front office to keep him around.

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After those two, you have three coaches who are coaching rookie QBs. Sean McDermott, Todd Bowles, and Gregg Williams have been okay coaches at best, but the question is, do you replace a coach after one season with a QB? Conventional wisdom says let the QB develop before pulling the plug, but there’s no guarantee that anything improves. Generally, the measuring stick year for quarterbacks is the kind of leap they make between years one and two. In my opinion, McDermott should go, Williams should stay, and Bowles is legitimately coaching for his job on Sunday.

Then, there’s Doug Marrone. This is going to quite simply come down to whether they blame him or the QB. I think that Bortles has clearly been the problem, but there also were problems on defense that have to be looked into. If too much of that blame falls onto Marrone, his time will be up.

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Next is Joe Philbin, who just recently took over for Mike McCarthy in Green Bay. Philbin looked to be just a temporary option, but for a team who hasn’t been in this position in a while, it might make sense to just avoid the drama and keep a guy who knows this football team. As long as the players (and I mean Aaron Rodgers) are on board, Philbin should stay around, but that’s still undetermined.

Finally, the biggest 50/50 of them all, big Marvin Lewis in Cincy will hope to see year 17 with the Bengals. I know you look at the situation and can easily say that Lewis should go, but if you know anything about how the first 16 years have gone, you know that it’s probably not going to happen. If it does, Hue Jackson might actually be in line for the job.

The Should-Be-Fired’s

Now, we’re left with two. These two pretty much embody everything that I’ve left out above. We have Vance Joseph and Dirk Koetter.

Both have already coached multiple seasons. Neither has made the playoffs. Vance and the Broncos experienced several ups and downs this year. They started 2-0, looking like they had enough grit to win close games, before losing six of their next seven and falling to 3-6. They then won three straight, including wins against Pittsburgh and the Chargers to rally to .500 just in time for the schedule to lighten up. But then they lost to the 49ers, Browns, and Raiders to all but lock up Vance’s fate.

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Koetter, on the other hand, was tasked with juggling the Linsanity of football, Fitzmagic, while trying to find a way to get once franchise cornerstone Jameis Winston between the lines to save the franchise. His mismanagement and overall failures should be the sure sign that it’s time for turnover in Tampa Bay.

SO…

I obviously don’t think we’re going to see only two coaches fired. I think the reasonable number would be between six and eight, but it’s really unclear, as there are no sure-fire candidates waiting in the wings. Right now, I’d say Mike McCarthy is the best free agent coach, and you can interpret that however you’d like.

In summary, the locks are locks. It would shock me to see an “almost lock” get fired. I think we’ll see between four to six “50/50s” get fired. Then we have the two coaches who are as good as gone in my book.

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