Texans with health insurance expected to reach 91 percent

AUSTIN - The percentage of Texans with health insurance will increase to 91 percent - up from 74 percent today - after the national health care law takes effect in 2014, the state's Medicaid director told lawmakers Monday.

The law, however, faces uncertainty pending a U.S. Supreme Court review over constitutional challenges, including a provision in the act mandating people to buy health insurance. Those who refuse will have to pay a penalty.

An estimated 2.3 million Texans will still lack health insurance after the Affordable Care Act takes effect, partially because undocumented immigrants are not eligible for coverage, State Medicaid Director Billy Millwee told a joint meeting of the House Public Health and Insurance committees.

Texas also has not yet developed a health insurance exchange, which the federal law created as a way to increase competition, cut costs and make buying insurance easier because residents will be able to compare insurance prices and benefits. The state has until Jan. 1, 2013 for proving a state exchange is on track.

Gov. Rick Perry opposes the exchanges because he believes the Supreme Court will find the law - the signature measure in President Barack Obama's first year - unconstitutional.

Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, wondered what consequence will befall Texas if it refuses to create a health insurance exchange: "Do we turn into a bunny?"

"The federal government will establish an exchange in states that don't," answered Katrina Daniel, an associate commissioner in the Texas Department of Insurance.

Millwee said the state is prepared to implement the rules regardless of whether the high court declares them constitutional. "I think we're going to be well-positioned, whether it's found to be constitutional or not," Millwee told the Associated Press.

Much of the hearing focused on grim statistics from an economics professor and former trustee for the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds.

20-year forecast

Texas A&M economics professor Thomas Saving told lawmakers he tells students that by the time they retire, they will be getting a bill for Medicare instead of a Social Security check because the health care premium will be greater.

About 10,000 people turn 65 each day in this country, which makes them eligible for Medicare, Saving said. In 20 years, 75 percent of federal income tax revenue will go for Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare, Saving told lawmakers, emphasizing that it's not feasible.

No 'glad tidings'

Reform must happen, but it's going to be difficult for Congress to make needed changes because lawmakers will be accused of "pushing grandma off the cliff in her wheelchair."

"I'm not here with glad tidings," Saving said.

The point was not lost on state Rep. Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood.

"I feel like I'm in the back seat of a two-door car driving off a cliff," Taylor said, "which is not a comfortable feeling."

gscharrer@express-news.net