Jon Ralston

With caucusmania dissipated, Monday marks the official beginning of the second campaign season in Nevada, the one involving candidates who actually live here.

Filing for office opens after the state’s Democrats, or a small subset thereof, decided Hillary Clinton is a better candidate than Bernie Sanders, and the state’s Republicans, or a small subset thereof, chose Donald Trump in a landslide over those two senators.

Whether those are harbingers or anomalies, omens or blips, we will discover in June and November. But as candidates sign papers during the next two weeks, it’s worth setting the baseline for Campaign ’16 with The Ten Questions That Matter:

Question No. 1: Can the Democrats reverse the disaster of 2014? Last cycle, the party lost control of both houses of the Legislature, all of the constitutional offices and a congressional seat (now held by Cresent Hardy) that should, by demographics, never be in GOP hands. Nowhere to go but up, right? As Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid enters his final year, he will try to ensure his party takes the state in the presidential race, keeps his seat, wins three of four congressional races and recaptures control of both houses of the Legislature. A clean sweep is unlikely, but can The Party of Reid win a bunch for Prince Harry?

Question No. 2: What will The Trump Effect turn out to be? Donald Trump may not be the nominee, even though stopping him seems less and less likely, even if there is a broken convention. And considering he received nearly half of the votes of GOP caucusgoers and the June primary is only three months away, the electorates surely will be similar. Yes, the dynamics of each district are different, and campaigns and candidates do matter. But if ever there were going to be a year when Republicans seen as RINOs lose, this would be it.

Orrin: Trump supporters abandoning all principles

Question No. 3: What impact will Gov. Brian Sandoval have on the contests? This has not been a good few months for the most popular Republican elected official. His now-you-see-him-now-you-don’t Supreme Court nomination. His pounding by the solar lobby, which caused him to second-guess his own regulators. And his refusal to disavow Trump, even though the presumptive nominee must be offensive to him. Can the governor have an impact in the U.S. Senate and legislative races if he goes all-out? Maybe, and unlike 2014, he could help elect people he actually likes and respects.

Question No. 4: How important will the top of the ticket be? It used to be in Nevada that unless your name was Clinton and a third-party candidate was on the ballot, you could not win the state as a Democratic nominee. Barack Obama changed that four-decades streak, but GOP organizational improvements and the 2014 hangover may have altered the dynamic. If the Clinton machine, which performed impressively last month, integrates with The Reid Machine, which is longing for redemption, the Democrats could do well. And guess what? There may be a Clinton and a third-party candidate this year (see GOP Establishment panic…)

Ralston Reports: Trump Effect will continue to resonate in Nevada

Question No. 5: Can the Democrats recapture CD4, and which one will do it? Rep. Cresent Hardy is not only one of the top national Democratic targets, he is considered a Dead Man Walking in a district with a double-digit Democratic registration advantage. In a low-turnout Democratic primary, a case could be made for any of the four Democrats running, although state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, anointed by Prince Harry and endorsed by the Culinary Union, is the favorite.

Question No. 6: Will state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson coast to victory in Rep. Joe Heck’s seat? He will raise the most money and has the best team, and no one is hungrier. But in the Year of Trump, and with potentially two foes (Danny Tarkanian and Assemblywoman Michele Fiore) coming hard after him, Roberson may struggle in that primary. If he survives, he is a favorite against the Democratic nominee, likely newcomer Jacky Rosen, who will have the full force of The Party of Reid behind her.

Supreme Court vacancy now part of Nevada Senate race

Question No. 7: Can the Republicans possibly retain control of the Assembly? It should be impossible, despite a 25-17 advantage. Even GOP insiders think the best they can hope for is 22-20, if everything were to break right. Don’t underestimate the data-driven organization erected by Majority Leader Paul Anderson, who would be speaker if he can pull off a miracle. The Democrats have a substantial edge, but it’s not a lock.

Question No. 8: Will registration turn out to be destiny? The Democrats have about a 47,000-voter statewide advantage over the GOP at last count. But that tally does not include the estimated 14,000 voters the Democrats registered at their Feb. 20 caucus sites. (The Republican Party, foolishly, did not have same-day registration.) I think that if the Republicans can keep the statewide edge at 60,000 voters or so — about 5 percent — they have a chance up and down the ticket.

Question No. 9: Will the confederacy of dunces be excised from Carson City? The accidental GOP lawmakers of 2014 should be erased by the 2016 correction. Shelly Shelton, John Moore and Brent Jones should have no chance to be re-elected, which will cause tears of joy in many quarters. But will Fiore and Victoria Seaman, who is escaping her Assembly district to try to win a Senate seat, also be gone? The odds are they will.

Question No. 10: Will the ballot questions have an impact? Guns, pot and maybe solar, and who knows what else? These initiatives will draw voters to the polls. But how many? And will they vote down-ticket, too, or just in the major races? The issues could well determine the outcome of close races.

Jon Ralston has been covering Nevada politics for more than a quarter-century. See his blog at ralstonreports.com and watch "Ralston Live" at 5:30 p.m. weekdays on KNPB.