Speaking this past month on stage in Pennsylvania, President Donald Trump complained about Japanese auto imports – and then ridiculed one of the Northwest’s largest exports.

“They (Japan) send thousands and thousands — millions — of cars. We send them wheat. Wheat,” the president deadpanned, eliciting derisive laughter from his audience. “That’s not a good deal. And they don’t even want our wheat. They do it because they want us to at least feel that we’re okay. You know, they do it to make us feel good.”

The comments left Oregon wheat farmers aghast. They were alarmed not just that the president was disparaging their crops, but also that his comments appeared to signal a lack of interest in reducing Japanese tariffs that were making U.S. wheat uncompetitive. Wheat and grains are Oregon’s fourth-largest export category, with more than 40% going to Japan and China.

Trump’s scorn was emblematic of his unorthodox approach to trade policy, which has sent financial markets gyrating and sparked fears of a national recession. A closely watched state forecast issued last week warned of “bad behavior and policy mistakes” that could derail the national economy – and, by extension, Oregon’s.

“The risk of recession is clearly rising in recent months,” state economists wrote.

From the region’s largest companies to tiny startups, employers are postponing hiring and spending, complaining of a whipsaw trade policy that makes it impossible to make strategic plans. Oregon farmers, like those across the country, are struggling to predict how the trade war will impact them.

“In general, this uncertainty with trade issues certainly weighs heavily,” said Steve Mercer, communications vice president for U.S. Wheat Associates, which represents farmers in Oregon and elsewhere.

Characteristic of its unpredictable approach, the administration suddenly threw Northwest farmers a lifeline last weekend – announcing it had cut a deal with Japan and indicating lower wheat tariffs would be part of the bargain.

Yet farmers remain wary, since the deal isn’t final and details aren’t public. Mercer said the trade war is making domestic farmers less competitive as customers overseas reconsider long-term relationships with their American suppliers.

“They’re uncertain about the U.S.,” he said, “so they’re considering alternatives.”

That uncertainty extends to all Oregon’s major industries. From agriculture to heavy industry, agriculture to sportswear, businesses say they’re confounded by the president’s approach to trade.

“Nobody knows what Trump’s going to do next,” said Frank Nichols, founder and CEO of Silicon Forest Electronics, a 20-year-old Vancouver company that makes specialized electronics for the aerospace, defense and industrial markets.

Though his 83-person business sells almost exclusively to customers in the U.S., Nichols said that won’t protect him if the trade war undermines the broader economy. So he’s putting the brakes on hiring and capital spending.

“It’s all preventative kinds of measures we’re taking right now, being cautious, keeping as much cash dry as we can so we’ll have it if we need it,” Nichols said.

Weakening Oregon exports

Oregon economists spelled out the risks of the administration’s trade policy this past week in the state’s quarterly revenue outlook, warning that “Cracks may be forming due to the trade war.”

Wednesday’s nonpartisan report noted continued strength in the Oregon labor market and manufacturing output. Unemployment is at a historic low of 4% and wages are rising rapidly.

After a decade of continuous expansion, the state’s rainy day funds have more than $2.5 billion in reserves – equivalent to 12% of Oregon’s two-year budget. That could cushion any downturn by providing a measure of stability in public spending.

Intel, Oregon’s largest corporate employer, is continuing to invest in the state despite declining sales and public misgivings about the trade war. The company has just begun construction of a multibillion-dollar expansion to its D1X research factory in Hillsboro.

Though Intel has warned of declining sales this year, and anxiety over the trade war, it’s pressing ahead with the project. Thousands of contractors will help build the expansion over the next two years, and Intel says the project will add 1,750 long-term jobs by the end of 2021.

Still, analysts see worrisome signs in the Oregon data.

Excluding electronics, a volatile sector that rises and falls with Intel’s production cycle, Oregon exports were down more than 7% in the first half of the year. Manufacturing and timber shipments to China are in steep decline.

And the number of manufacturing hours worked in the state are falling, at a pace more than double the national rate. That suggests manufacturers may be dropping shifts, or perhaps less overtime among factory workers.

“There are indications that say there are troubles ahead,” said Rep. Lynn Findley, R-Vale, vice chairman of the House Committee on Revenue. He said the decline in Oregon manufacturing hours is particularly alarming.

Trade policy is affecting Oregon agriculture and other sectors, Findley allowed, but he said state policies are exacerbating the situation. He said a new requirement for paid family leave, a $1 billion annual business tax for education, and the prospect of a state carbon tax on emissions are adding to the uncertainty.

“People that I have spoken with are concerned about making an investment in Oregon with all of these impacts,” Findley said.

Unpredictable approach

National economic fears came to a head in August, triggered first by the “inverted yield curve.” It was a little-known barometer that suddenly became a national talking point.

An inversion indicates that short-term bonds pay more than long-term ones, which signals a lack of investor faith in the economic outlook. They have historically been harbingers of a recession, though economists are split on whether it will be this time.

Then Trump alarmed financial markets last Friday by announcing new tariffs on goods from China, augmented by a tweet notifying American companies they are “hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China.”

The president made no effort to enforce his unprecedented edict and companies gave no sign they intend to obey.

“There’s a process for enacting laws and it’s not on Twitter. We intend to continue doing business in China and I expect other companies to as well,” said Peter Bragdon, chief administrative officer and general counsel for Columbia Sportswear.

Headquartered in Washington County, Columbia Sportswear is among Oregon’s biggest companies and has been among the nation’s most vocal critics of Trump’s trade policies. The company has warned its prices are likely to rise because of tariffs on its goods.

While Bragdon said Columbia Sportswear isn’t going to back out of China, he said the trade war is forcing the company to ratchet back its broader spending plans.

“There are some investments we’re choosing not to make because of uncertainty around trade,” Bragdon said. “It’s a constant conversation for us.”

Deena Ghazarian is trying to launch a new line of consumer electronics accessories called Austere. She lives in Los Angeles but most of her employees work with a business accelerator in Wilsonville.

“What keeps me up at night is here we are, launching a brand, with the economy teetering on the edge of a recession,” Ghazarian said. Her first products just hit the market but Ghazarian said others are on hold until 2020 or later as she rations her spending and hiring in anticipation of higher production costs and slower sales.

“Everybody is nervous and scared, for sure,” Ghazarian said. “There’s so much instability that you can’t help but be nervous.”

Tariffs on steel and aluminum have increased the cost of SSI Shredding Systems’ products by 15 percent, according to Austin Peterson, director of parts and services at the Wilsonville company. Recyclers all over the world use SSI’s shredders to break down big metal appliances and similar equipment for recycling.

“The unfortunate thing is our competitors don’t have the same headwinds,” Peterson said. “Our competitors are European.”

President Trump’s unorthodox, unpredictable approach to international trade has endeared him to supporters like those gathered at his Pennsylvania rally, who welcome the president’s tough talk and willingness to take on steel dumping and other trade disparities that prior administrations neglected.

“We know China is a bad actor. Everybody in the steel market knows that,” Peterson said. But he said the president’s tactics and implementation have been poor, leaving businesses like his scrambling to adjust as the trade war escalates.

“If you don’t know where the end is,” he asked, “how do you prepare for it strategically?”

— Mike Rogoway | twitter: @rogoway | 503-294-7699