With a 3-4-3 record and nine points in their first ten games, the Leafs have alternated between sputtering and sparkling to start the season.

Auston Matthews and William Nylander have provided the sparkle, breathing life into the fan base and showing their talent and potential in the young season. But Frederik Andersen and Jhonas Enroth have struggled at times in goal and the Leafs have let valuable points slip away in overtime.

The team is on pace for about 74 points, which will leave the Leafs just a handful of points better than the 69 points they finished with in 2015-16.

Is there reason for hope? Are the Leafs trending in the right direction? For answers, we’ll turn to some modern statistics.

First, a few words on the graph itself.

Each panel features a team statistic, including Corsi for percentage (CF%), scoring chances percentage (SCF%), goals for percentage (GF%), and expected goals for percentage (xGF%). All measures are score-adjusted and even-strength only. You can read more on the definitions of each here. Also, for more on why statistics like these have become so important to hockey analysis, check out these two primers and spend some time sifting through the blog posts at the excellent Corsica Hockey.

Each panel includes a box-and-whisker plot. The red-shaded middle area houses the middle 50 percent of teams. Below the shaded box are the worst 25 percent of team’s in the given measure. Above the shading you’ll find the best teams.

So, what can we learn about the Leafs?

Much like last season, the Leafs are a strong Corsi team. As of Thursday, according to Corsica, the Leafs’ CF% (Adjusted for score, zone and venue) was fifth-best in the NHL.

That’s very good.

The scoring chances story is much the same. At approximately 55 SCF%, the Leafs sit fifth in the league in scoring chances share as well, buoyed by the strong work of offensive spark plugs like Matthews and Nylander and the excellent work by defensemen Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, and Connor Carrick (more on them below).

As the Leafs’ record reflects, the team has not fared well in GF%, mired in the bottom-half of the league’s average group. Encouragingly, based on the Leafs’ strong work generating shots, the team’s expected GF% is among the top-tier. If the Leafs continue generating shots and managing chances against at their current rates, we should expect the team’s 5v5 goal share to improve over the long run.

How do things look at the individual level?

Here, we can look at player shot rates for (CF60) and against (CA60). If a player has an above average shot rate for and below average shot rate against, they’ll land in the “good” quadrant. In the opposite situation (more shots against than for) the player will land in the “bad” quadrant. If the player’s shot rates for and against are both below league average, the players is labelled “dull.” If both rates are above the NHL average, the player will plot in the “fun” quad.

The picture is rosy for the Leafs’ forwards. Peter Holland and Leo Komarov own excellent shot rate stats. Matthews and Nylander straddle the line between good and fun. (Which, coincidentally or not, are two of the likely adjectives that Leafs fans would use to describe them playing on a line together this season)

The remaining Leafs forwards are plotted in the fun quad, showing that Toronto’s forwards do a good job of generating shots but also allow a high number of shot attempts against.

With excellent goaltending, this strategy can work – an elite netminder can handle the additional workload. Corey Crawford is providing this type of work for the Chicago Blackhawks. Andersen struggled, particularly early in the year, which helped to sink the Leafs’ fortunes.

Leafs defenders early season projections look much the same as the forwards. Connor Carrick has developed into a highly productive part of the team’s blue line, posting shot rates that rank among the game’s best defensemen through the first ten games of the year. Gardiner, Rielly (unmarked beside Gardiner), and Martin Marincin (small sample of time-on-ice) have each posted excellent shot rates for, while allowing slightly more than league-average shots against.

In a surprise plot twist, Roman Polak plots in the fun quadrant too. The fast-paced, offense-generating systems used by the Leafs have swept up all players. These tactics include activating strong-side defensemen to pinch low into the offensive zone, essentially becoming a forward, to add puck pressure (more on that by the excellent Jack Han here).

If Polak’s shot rates are above average, that’s a good indication of the kind of hockey the Leafs want to play, regardless of whether or not the player has a reputation as a stay-at-home type of defender.

Sorry, Roman.

Projecting the way forward

Micah Blake McCurdy does some of the best public hockey stats work available. In his preseason preview post, he projected the Leafs to secure approximately 88 points and finish outside the playoffs picture in the Eastern Conference.

Due to some early-season struggles in goal, the Leafs have already fallen behind this pace. But, with strong team-level advanced stats and good showings from most skaters at the individual level, it’s a good bet that the Leafs record should improve as the season progresses.

Now, will that be enough for them to reach McCurdy’s 88 point projection? Whether or not they do, the Leafs are playing the type of hockey that can be counted on to win in the long-run. And they’re doing it with fun, young, homegrown, and talented players. Only two years into the Mike Babcock rebuild process, there’s lots to like in Toronto already. So the answer, for now, may be irrelevant.

This young Maple Leafs team has not yet evolved into a guaranteed playoff contender just yet. But the time is coming for the Leafs’ return to relevance.

And that time may be very soon.