The Liberals have increased their lead in the deciding Victorian seat of Bentleigh, strengthening their grip on the state election.

The choice between a hung parliament and a fresh election, or the Coalition winning the 45th seat it needs to form a government under Ted Baillieu, all comes down to the Bentleigh outcome.

The Victorian Electoral Commission says that on its provisional figures, the Liberal Party has won the key seat in Melbourne's south-east.

When counting in Bentleigh closed at 6:00pm (AEDT) on Sunday, Liberal candidate Elizabeth Miller had doubled her lead to 423 votes ahead of Labor's Rob Hudson.

But with 83 per cent of the vote counted, the result was still too close to call.

"Given the critical nature of this seat we're not calling it for us at this point," Coalition spokesman Simon Troeth said.

There are still some remaining votes to be counted today, including interstate and overseas postal votes and provisional votes.

From today, recounts will also begin in Eltham, Ballarat East and Macedon.

The Liberal/Nationals Coalition picked up 13 seats in Saturday's state election, ending 11 years of rule by the Labor party.

At the end of counting on Saturday night, the Liberals had picked up 11 seats and the Nationals one seat, leaving them one seat short of a majority of 45.

The Victorian Electoral Commission, recognising the importance of the outcome, had staff count 3,000 pre-poll votes in an attempt to clarify the situation.

Labor currently has 37 seats and is ahead in Albert Park, Ballarat East, Eltham, Macedon, Monbulk and Narre Warren North.

The Liberals have won 44, picking up 12 seats, including Burwood, Carrum, Forest Hill, Frankston, Gembrook, Mitcham, Mordialloc, Mount Waverley, Prahran, Seymour and South Barwon.

Labor is still refusing to concede defeat until all 550,000 early votes are counted across the state, which could take days.

But John Brumby admits a hung parliament is the best Labor can hope for.

He says this is not the way he expected the election to go.

"In my heart, I guess I'd hoped that we would get back with a small majority, which I always thought would be three or five seats," he said.

If the Coalition claims victory in Bentleigh they can form a government but Labor will remain in caretaker mode until the Governor, David de Kretser, is informed.