Chris’ 2016 NWSL Previews

1st – Seattle Reign

2nd – Chicago Red Stars

3rd – Washington Spirit

4th – Portland Thorns

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5th – FC Kansas City

6th – Houston Dash

7th –

8th – Boston Breakers

9th – WNY Flash

10th –

The tenth NWSL franchise isn’t doing things halfway in their inaugural campaign. Orlando had been rumored as an expansion franchise for months before being confirmed late last year and has promptly hit the ground running both on the pitch and off. Having the might of one of Major League Soccer’s most ambitious ownership groups behind them has certainly helped with the promotion of the Pride, as Orlando has been quick to blitz the media and build the hype around the upcoming season. Tickets have purportedly moved at a rapid rate, to the point that the club is talking about breaking attendance records in their very first season in the league. It remains to be seen if the Pride can keep the pace up at the box office for the duration of the season, but the early signs from the club’s launch have been quite positive.

The Pride have been wheeling and dealing to make sure the on-pitch product matches the off-pitch ambition. Orlando made a pretty big splash right off the bat by trading for USWNT attacking dynamo, Alex Morgan, an expected move to bring Morgan to the same city as her husband. Oft-injured last year, Morgan has been an in-form terror in the offseason and could be a contender to finally put it together at club level this year. It’s not just Morgan though. The club added star power in the form of Ashlyn Harris and some strong pros at this level like Becky Edwards and Lianne Sanderson. And perhaps most intriguingly, the Pride made a big splash in the management department, naming former USWNT boss Tom Sermanni as their first manager. It all points to an exciting, if unpredictable, first year for the NWSL’s newest club.

Coach

There may be few coaches in the NWSL with as much to prove as Tom Sermanni, who has been desperate for a chance at redemption after his stunning sacking from the USWNT in the run-up to the Women’s World Cup. Sermanni had seemed like a natural choice to so many but was turfed out after some patchy results, including some infamous results at the Algarve Cup that may have played a major role in his dismissal. Since, he’s worked as an assistant with the Canadian WNT but has been clamoring for an opportunity to get back in the game proper and reignite his reputation in the WoSo world.

That opportunity came in the form of the opening with the expansion Orlando Pride, and Sermanni would have been a fool to turn down an offer to captain a side with the financial backing and ambition of MLS’ Orlando City. From the promotional work to a marketing drive that could deliver consistent bumper crowds, even with the team’s new stadium’s opening delayed, Orlando looks like a perfect place to establish a potential powerhouse in the still growing NWSL. It’s hard to argue that the Pride aren’t in a better position than Houston was upon their entry into the league given some of the big name players the club has been able to attract in their short lifespan thus far.

But it’s been a while since Sermanni’s been involved in club management, and he hasn’t really had a serious job at club level since his stint in the WUSA of old, where he managed the New York Power but never really got a chance to complete a massive rebuilding project after taking over a broken team following a historically bad 2002. The club game has obviously changed by leaps and bounds since, and a prevailing storyline surrounding this team going into 2016 will be if Sermanni can re-adapt to club level ball after so long in the international game.

Sermanni’s used to a big building project though, as evidenced by his time at the head of the Australian WNT. Through a commitment of building a program through youth, Sermanni was able to turn an anonymous Australia program into one of the world’s most promising and exciting sides. Part of that excitement though was centered around some obvious defensive failings that Sermanni also struggled to iron out of the USWNT during his short tenure there. Building a team with strong foundations on both side of the ball is going to be key for any type of playoff run, but at the very least, Sermanni’s all action playing style at past stops should ensure entertainment in 2016. For better or for worse.

Goalkeepers

When building a club from scratch, you better have someone capable of directing traffic between the pipes, as automatic defensive cohesion’s not a sure thing. It’s a good thing then that the club was able to bring in Ashlyn Harris via the expansion draft to serve as the last line of defense. Firmly entrenched as the U.S.’ #2 in goal at the moment, Harris may be hoping that she’s not as busy as she often was with the Spirit, dealing with a backline that was by turns too young or just not talented enough in her three years with the club. At the age of thirty, Harris is perfectly positioned to be the U.S.’ #1 for the next WWC cycle if Hope Solo steps away after the Olympics, but she’ll need to keep at the top of her game. She made just one error leading to a goal in ten games last season by my personal count, and that type of form would hold Orlando in good stead as they embark on their debut campaign.

With Harris likely to miss a chunk of time while with the USWNT this season, it was important to find a qualified understudy, and the Pride should have done so by taking Aubrey Bledsoe in the expansion draft. Bledsoe’s endured something of a stop-start beginning to her professional career, playing for a short stint in Europe before ending up back in the U.S. with Sky Blue FC last year. Logic would say that with SBFC struggling defensively and with Brittany Cameron showing a blunder prone side to her game, Bledsoe would get more than a token runout off the bench. But that’s all she got last season, and Bledsoe will be looking to reignite a career which has puzzlingly stalled out. She’s still largely an unknown commodity at this level, but the Pride will be desperate for Bledsoe to be up to the task when Harris is away.

The club also needs an emergency reserve fill-in when Harris is gone. And that could be a problem, as the only other keeper in camp to our knowledge has been Julia Kantor, a small school prospect from Florida Tech. Cantor bounced around in college but only really began to meet her potential as a senior at the DII school. Needless to say, if Kantor sees the field for any extended length of time in 2016, the Pride could be in deep trouble.

Compared with a lot of other teams in the league, the Pride look well set in goal. Harris will be a big asset for a defense that has to gel and could be worth her weight in gold in close matches for the club this season. Bledsoe’s ability at this level is still something of a mystery, but if she plays to her potential, the Pride will be fine, meaning this could be a strong point for the expansion club in 2016.



Defenders

Sermanni’s never been accused of having the most defensively stout teams, either at club or international level, so it’s a good thing that this group looks solid on paper and are backed up by an excellent goalkeeper. Considering Sermanni was basically starting from scratch and doesn’t have a USWNT’er on the backline going into 2016, the group doesn’t look half bad on paper. The bad news is that the entire preferred back four (if the team does use four at the back) are going to miss some degree of time in the run-up to the Olympics in Rio.

It’s hardly a shock that Sermanni has sprung for some of the young defenders he helped bring along as the architect of Australia’s WNT for so long. The veteran of the Matildas on the Pride roster, Steph Catley comes this way after a trade with Portland in the offseason. Catley would probably like to forget her 2015 season with the Thorns, as it was pretty much a bust. Already missing time due to commitments with the Matildas, Catley was on the training table for much of the rest of the season, playing in just three matches for Portland last year. She’s never really met her massive potential in the NWSL to this point and should have a point to prove as the club’s likely first choice at left-back in 2016.

The other flank will likely be occupied by new Canadian allocation Josee Belanger. Belanger has long been a favorite for Canadian partisans and will finally get a chance to show what she can do at this level in her first NWSL season. A talented forward for so long at international level, John Herdman converted Belanger to full-back to fill a gap there last year, and the experiment has been a success by most accounts. While Belanger was back up front for the knockout stages of the Women’s World Cup, she probably has more value in the back in Orlando which has questions otherwise about the right-back position.

If Belanger is away or playing up front, the spot likely falls to Cami Levin, acquired from Sky Blue FC. Levin has spent most of her time as a pro at left-back but has played right-back a bit and was a star there for Stanford in college. But Levin has struggled to meet the potential she showed as a senior for the national title winning Card and is probably little more than a solid option at right-back if needed there. Levin was a workhorse last season for Sky Blue FC, starting eighteen matches, and she probably would’ve played in all twenty had she not been sent off at one point in 2015. Levin looks like the clearest option out wide on the right when Belanger’s away.

Another option, albeit an untested one going into this season, is rookie Samantha Witteman, the club’s first round pick in this year’s draft. Witteman came from nowhere to have a superb senior season with Cal and was a late riser, eventually landing an invite to U23 camp and a spot with the Pride in their maiden campaign. Witteman looks like a perfect fit for a Sermanni team, a whirling dervish on the field who doesn’t stop running on defense while making things happen offensively. There may be some indications that Witteman may end up in a more attacking role, but if the club does end up going 3-5-2, Witteman might be the perfect solution as a right wing-back. At the bare minimum, Witteman should be a crowd favorite with her energetic style from off the bench.

The other option as a utility player and depth defender is veteran Kristen Edmonds, who’s hung around for much longer than many might have expected upon her entry into the league. The Rutgers alum has been a mainstay in Rochester over two seasons after a tour of Europe and started half of the Flash’s games last season. Edmonds’ versatility is one of her strongest assets, as she’s able to start at left-back or in a higher position up the field, though she’s not the most clinical finisher in front of goal. Edmonds will be a contender for a spot at left-back when Catley’s gone, but she’s another that may flourish in a utility role for the Pride this season given her ability to play multiple positions.

The central defense for Orlando will have an international appeal, but that could prove a big detriment around the Olympics, with both Monica and Laura Alleway expected to be in Rio for the event. Monica was one of the club’s first additions in their inaugural offseason and is fresh off featuring for Brazil at last year’s Women’s World Cup. The center-back has certainly taken the circuitous route to this point, having spent much of her club career in the outposts of Austria before bouncing around Brazil waiting for her big break. You don’t normally associate Brazil with great defending, but she looked competent enough at the WWC and will be looking to further her reputation this year with the Pride.

The other likely starter in central defense for the club is Alleway, who had a star turn at last year’s WWC for Australia in their stirring run to the last eight. Previously a bit anonymous outside of her home nation, Alleway will be entering her first extended period playing for a non-Australian club side coming off an excellent WWC as the Matildas turned heads in Canada. A massive presence at the heart of the defense, Alleway was last seen as a part of the all-conquering Melbourne City side this past W-League season back in Australia. She’s never come close to playing at this level of club ball though, so like Monica, it might take a bit of time for her to adapt to this level, though the talent is clearly there.

Sermanni might be sweating bullets when either or both of the above center-back duo is gone for international duty, as there’s precious little depth available behind the two on the main roster. The only immediate option behind Monica and Alleway is Toni Pressley, another Florida native who’ll be on her fourth NWSL team in just four seasons. That alone should be cause for wariness from Pride fans, though Pressley did start almost the whole season for a better than expected Houston rearguard last year. She’s unlikely to be more than third-choice here at center-back though if the club goes with four at the back. Sermanni played around with a 3-5-2 in preseason though, and that would likely bring Pressley into the lineup, though the lack of other CB options might make that a risky tact in the long run.

If everyone plays to their true potential, this group could be surprisingly stout in 2016. But the club also has a lot working against it in this regard. With all of that first choice back four likely to miss time, it could be hard to gel the unit, even harder than usual considering this is an expansion team. Monica and Alleway both could be great in the NWSL but also haven’t faced this level of competition at club level, which is worrying. Add in some concerns about depth, and you could see this as the weak point on the Pride as they go into their first season of play.

Midfielders

It’s a little hard to predict how the Pride are going to play this season given the fact that they are an expansion franchise and the fact that Sermanni hasn’t coached at club level in ages. Some of the forwards listed below will likely end up in midfield, possibly out of necessity considering the fact that this group looks a bit thin otherwise. How Sermanni balances this group could be key as well considering his defense could be in flux all season, meaning he may need to make sure there’s a strong spine in central midfield to serve as a shield for said backline.

The focal point amongst the central midfielders is likely to be Becky Edwards, returning to Florida after multiple stops around the NWSL following a great college career at Florida State. The well traveled Edwards will be on her fourth NWSL team after a season each in Portland, Houston, and Western New York. After winning a ring with Portland in the NWSL’s first season, Edwards has had to languish on teams that have been at or near the bottom of the league. She’ll be hoping to not extend that streak to three seasons and is going to be a vital conduit of experience and talent on a unit that has some questions on it otherwise. Edwards will probably need a big season for the Pride to get near the playoff places at the first time of asking.

A potential central midfield partner for Edwards this season is Canadian international Kaylyn Kyle. Ironically, Kyle may be the only midfielder with more NWSL stops than Edwards thus far. The Pride will make it five teams for Kyle thus far in the league, and the club will have to hope the fact that no team Kyle’s been on has made the playoffs with her on the roster thus far in three seasons is just an unlucky coincidence. Kyle wasn’t included on the qualifying roster for the Olympics, as John Herdman opted for youth over experience, and the veteran might be sweating heading into the NWSL campaign knowing that she faces a fight to get on the plane to Rio, even as an alternate. A big first half of the season might be needed to ensure she makes the trip.

Also looking to make her first playoff appearance in the NWSL this season is Maddy Evans, selected by the Pride in the expansion draft from Boston. Evans has carved out a niche for herself as a hard working utility player capable of filling a role in either the midfield or defense for a club. She even got involved in the scoring a bit for Boston last season, netting a pair of goals in thirteen starts for the strugglers. With the lack of depth here (and potentially on the backline), and with Kyle potentially missing time with the Canadian WNT, Evans’ versatility and experience at this level could be a godsend for a Pride team hoping to do more than just make up the numbers in 2016.

Given the questionable numbers on this group going into 2016, there may also be bigger role than expected for fourth round draft pick Dani Weatherholt. The former Santa Clara midfielder was a pretty big prospect coming into college but didn’t really develop until late in her college career with the Broncos. SCU alums usually do better at this level than in college though, and Weatherholt certainly should have opportunities to earn minutes early as the club finds its feet and perhaps late, when some of the players are dealing with Olympic duty.

If you take into account some of the forwards listed below perhaps playing in a more withdrawn role in the midfield, then Orlando has a solid amount of depth and experience at this level to work with in their first season. However, there’s not a real midfield superstar to speak of despite that depth and experience, which could become problematic if the attackers get shut down and Sermanni needs to take a game over in the middle of the park.

Forwards

Sermanni is spoilt for choice going into 2016, as he boasts a hell of a lot of firepower in attack going into the Pride’s first season. Given some of the questions on defense, it’s important for the Pride to have a lot of potential for goals, and that the club does on paper. All of the pieces aren’t going to be here all season, but when the group is at full strength, it could have enough to challenge any defense in the league.

You can’t talk about goals and Orlando without mentioning Alex Morgan, who is clearly meant to be the star figure of the Pride as they begin their NWSL run. The trade bringing her to Florida was convoluted and assuredly a measure to help bring Morgan closer to her husband, but to be truthful, the USWNT forward needed a fresh start after the relationship between herself and the Thorns had gone sour. Whether it was the infuriating litany of injuries that kept her on the training table for weeks on end or a simple lack of production, it was clear that Morgan’s tenure in Portland wasn’t working out for either party.

Early signs though are that Morgan may be revitalized by the move to the expansion franchise, and the Cal alum looks to finally be enjoying a period of sustained health. It’s showed on the pitch for the USWNT, as Morgan has been in deadly form in front of goal this offseason and again looks like one of the world’s top forwards. But the question is how she’ll hold up over the course of a grueling season in searing heat and humidity with international duty at the Rio Olympics also a factor. If she’s stays fit and firing, Orlando has a fighting chance against anyone this year. If not, Sermanni’s going to have to try and coax goals out of the rest of a capable frontline.

That could include getting Sarah Hagen to grow into her massive potential for the Pride. Hagen’s been something of an enigma in her time in the league so far, totally miscast as a target forward in FC Kansas City’s tiki-taka passing game but still good enough to serve as a hell of a Plan B in said gameplan, netting four goals last year to tie for second on the team. But it never really made sense for Hagen to stay with FCKC, even if she would’ve been first choice this past season in attack, as it seemed far too great of a style clash to foster real growth for Hagen, who has to be front and center and scoring consistently to get back into the mix for the USWNT. She’ll probably be a starter here and could former a great “thunder and lightning” combo up front with Morgan and her pace playing off Hagen’s size.

When Morgan’s gone with the USWNT, the secondary striker role likely falls to Lianne Sanderson. The English international’s not likely to dip out of the starting lineup when Morgan’s here though, as the midfield role right behind a two front sounds perfectly tailored to Sanderson’s skill set. Whether she’ll be able to excel at her third NWSL stop is an interesting question though. Sanderson was on the English Women’s World Cup side last year but never really displayed her best as a reserve forward for the club. Add in two forgettable club football stints at Arsenal and with the Portland Thorns in 2015, and you might wonder if Sanderson’s already on the downside of her career at the age of twenty-eight. She showed what she can do to defenses in this league with Boston for two seasons though, and Sermanni has to be hoping that that Sanderson shows up to help fuel his offense in 2016.

Most of Orlando’s attacking strength is right down the middle, but there is a little bit of quality on the flanks as well, adding to Sermanni’s options and perhaps enabling a couple of different looks going forward. Capturing Jasmyne Spencer from the Flash in the offseason might be considered something of a mini-coup considering the former Maryland star’s experience and ability to strike true in front of goal. Spencer is far from being the biggest player but has exceptional pace and netted three goals after winning a starting spot for the Flash last season. She’s not going to be a first option for a winning team, but she’s a great ancillary piece to disrupt defenses and could really help free up defenses for some of the above attackers.

She’ll be joined by another former Flash player, Jamia Fields. Fields had a roller coaster season in 2015 as a rookie, being drafted by Boston but not making the cut there before signing with the Rochester side and eventually starting seven matches. Fields never really was a huge scoring threat as a collegian at Florida State but did manage to come through with some big and/or spectacular goals, as evidenced by the quality of the one goal she did score as a rookie. It’s unlikely that Fields turns into a big star at this level, but her clutch quality and pedigree, coming from the FSU program, makes her a pretty solid player to have coming off the bench.

Belanger could be used as a winger as well depending on the situation and personnel challenges Orlando faces, but given her success at right-back for Canada and the club’s need there, she seems far more likely to start the season on the backline.

This is probably the strength of the team for Sermanni as he leads them towards their first season in the NWSL. Morgan and Hagen are a potent scoring duo that becomes a terrific trio if Lianne Sanderson is on form playing behind them. How well they do when Morgan is away will be vital though, and there’s going to be a lot of expectation on Hagen’s shoulders to finally become the forward many have projected her to be.

Outlook

By rule, expansion franchises are generally in for a painful first season as they try to catch up to existing franchises. The old days of clubs simply being able to buy their way into playoff contention are truly dead and buried and probably not coming back any time soon. But that doesn’t mean that the Pride are automatically ticketed for the cellar in 2016. You don’t spend as much as Orlando did in marketing and bringing in top level players to finish bottom, even in your first season. The club’s owners probably aren’t expecting the playoffs at the first chance but would probably be a little disappointed if they aren’t somewhere around mid-table.

While the roster is solid, there are still some pretty prominent worries. The lack of a true playmaker in the middle of the park has to be a big concern. Lianne Sanderson can fill that role somewhat, but she’s more of a second striker type playing in the hole behind the forward(s). If Sanderson gets hurt or is ineffective, you struggle to see where the creativity is going to come from. The rest of the middle of the park looks pretty functional on paper, meaning Orlando’s going to need a lot of creativity out wide to create chances. Beyond that, the rearguard could be a point of bother since the entire first choice backline (if the club goes with four at the back) could be at the Olympics. Rapid personnel shifts could make an already difficult gelling process even harder.

There’s still a solid foundation here though. The Morgan-Hagen combo up top could be one of the league’s most potent, while there’s tons of athleticism out wide on both flanks. Add in some promising young talent elsewhere like Alleway, and Orlando could surprise some people this year. But I doubt they’ll be able to do it over a whole season, meaning an inconsistent campaign full of excitement may be the best we can hope for this year.

Prediction: 7th