Memorandum for Interested Parties

From: Adam Geller, National Research

Jamie Roe, Grand River Strategies

Subject: Michigan Republican Senate Primary

Date: July 17, 2018

Adam Geller of National Research conducted a poll of 600 likely Republican Primary voters July 11-14, 2018 with live callers, included 40% cellphones and has a margin of error of +/- 4%. The poll was conducted for Outsider PAC.

The poll found the race a clear toss up with three weeks remaining before the primary election. The poll showed:

John James – 21%

Sandy Pensler – 28%

Lean/Undecided – 41%

Refused/someone else – 10%

Despite spending nearly $3 million on negative tv ads attacking John James, Sandy Pensler has not closed the deal with primary voters. In fact as John James has stepped up his advertising the tide is turning toward John James.

As James becomes better known the race turns his way. Today among voters who have heard of both the race is tied, and among those who have an opinion of both James has a slight lead.

When presented with both candidates background and biographies, John James’ bio as a West Point graduate, Ranger qualified Apache helicopter pilot, combat veteran and job creator is far preferable to voters than Pensler’s. Over the coming weeks we have no doubt that voters will become more educated on both and as they do will move in large numbers toward John James.

The large number of undecided voters is confirmed not only in our polling, but also in the small number of absentee ballots that have been returned across the state. So far in Michigan 553,694 absentee ballots have been requested while only 151,893 have been returned. That means only 27% of the total absentee vote has been cast and if total primary turnout is similar to the last time there were contested elections at the top of both party’s tickets, 2010, only around 8% of the total expected primary vote has been cast. There is plenty of time to reach undecided voters.

The fact that Pensler remains relentlessly and ever more harshly negative also shows that their campaign understands the peril they are in as John becomes better known. Unfortunately for Pensler his campaign of inuendo is a harder sell to voters than the actual words out of Pensler’s mouth and actions he has taken.

Pensler’s early lead has been based entirely on the $2.7 million he has spent on television ads which has bought some name identification, but absent a compelling personal story and Pensler’s struggles to find any third party validators a wide path is has remained open to John James who boasts many conservative validators including the endorsements of Michigan Right to Life, National Right to Life, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, the American Conservative Union, the Senate Conservatives Fund, Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton, Kid Rock, Rob O’Neil, and many others. John also has an aggressive and largely organic social media presence combined with aggressive travel and public appearances across the state while Pensler largely remains hidden behind paid advertisements with few public appearances.

While this race is likely to remain close through primary election day it is trending John James way and we are confident John James will prevail on August 7th.

Memo Authors:

In 2016 Adam Geller served as one of the pollsters for the Donald J. Trump for President campaign and was responsible for several midwestern states including Michigan. Geller also served as the pollster for the successful campaigns of Michigan Congressmen Paul Mitchell, Tim Walberg and Dave Trott.

Jamie Roe has been involved in Republican politics in Michigan for nearly 30 years, including serving for 13 years as the Chief of Staff for Congresswoman Candice Miller and the campaign manager for her successful campaign for Congress and Secretary of State. In 2015 Roe co-founded the Republican political consulting firm Grand River Strategies. In 2016 Grand River Strategies went 7 for 7 with their General Election candidates including Congressmen Paul Mitchell, Dave Trott and Mike Bishop, Michigan

Supreme Court Justices David Viviano and Joan Larsen, Macomb County Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller and Oakland County Executive Brooks Patterson. Roe is now serving as a Senior Strategist for Outsider PAC.

Paid for by Outsider PAC. 25 WEST 8TH STREET SUITE 300, HOLLAND, MI 49423 NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE COMMITTEE.