Updated 11:21 a.m. Friday

Grocers have been talking about eliminating checkout lines for years. On Monday, that dream became reality.

At least for Amazon.

The online retail giant unveiled its latest brick-and-mortar experiment, Amazon Go. The 1,800 square-foot convenience store, opening in Seattle in early 2017, employs what it calls "Just Walk Out" technology.

There's no need for checkout lines because sensors will detect what shoppers grab off the shelves, allowing the charges to flow straight to their Amazon accounts on their smartphones.

Though Amazon is still testing the technology, its release will probably spur other grocers to find ways to speed up their checkout process. And it potentially could end grocery shopping as we know it.

The retailer reportedly hopes to open as many 2,000 locations.

(Amazon has denied the Wall Street Journal report that it plans to open 2,000 stores. The Journal stands by its report.)

If history is any indication, if the company does open additional stores, the Portland area will be high on its list. In October, Amazon opened its third physical bookstore at Washington Square mall in Tigard.

If Amazon Go stores require shoppers to have smartphones and bank accounts, it could create a segregated experience, one exclusive to those with means and tech know-how, researchers say.

And automating the cashier function on a wide scale could cause millions of jobs to disappear.

Robot vs. cashier

This could happen sooner rather than later, according to Phil Lempert, a food industry analyst based in Santa Monica, California.

"How fast will [the technology] spread? That depends on Amazon," he said. "If they want to keep it proprietary, it depends how quickly they can build these stores. If they want to license it to other stores, it can become pervasive very quickly."

But Lempert doesn't think Amazon will be keen to share its high-tech secrets with other retailers. It's more likely, he said, that a company like Google will unveil similar technology in the coming months and sell that to grocers.

By the end of 2017, shoppers could see versions of Amazon's "Just Walk Out" program in some Walmart or Kroger stores, he predicted.

Lempert suspects that implementing the new technology would be cheaper than buying a new set of cash registers. Cost won't be the sticking point, he said.

"The major barrier is going to be in the board room," he said.

Retail executives considering automation at this level - a step up from self-checkout machines - must also consider the human cashiers to be replaced.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 3.4 million cashier positions in the United States as of May 2015; that's 2.5 percent of all U.S. jobs. Retail sales workers, which do not include cashiers, totaled 8.8 million, just over 6 percent of overall jobs.

The United Food Workers International Union, which represents grocery workers throughout the United States and Canada, slammed Amazon's move to open cashier-less stores.

In a statement Wednesday, union President Marc Perrone emphasized the importance of supermarket workers, who he said do more than ring up groceries. Amazon is overlooking the fact that these employees provide an invaluable and vital service, he said.

"Amazon is masking its blind greed as progress," Perrone said. "This is not about improving customer experience: It is about destroying good jobs, with no regard to the families and communities impacted. This is not the America that hard-working families want and deserve."

Increased automation might not be all bad for retail workers. According to Lempert, stores adding cashier-replacing technology could move those workers to other positions throughout the store. In theory, these employees could be re-trained to provide customer service or specialized product knowledge - a win-win for workers and shoppers, he said.

Ryann Reynolds-McIlnay, who teaches merchandising management at Oregon State University, said that though in-store jobs may be lost, Amazon, at least, will likely add jobs behind the scenes.

If Amazon opens additional grocery stores, it could open more, smaller distribution centers, and expand its grocery warehouse activities, she wrote in an email to The Oregonian/OregonLive.

Because employees would still need to oversee the store, stock the shelves, and unload delivery trucks, this expansion could create more positions, she said.

Segregated shopping?

In the promotional video for Amazon Go, a young man in a baseball hat approaches what appears to be a turnstile (it's unclear whether there are any physical barriers), smartphone at the ready. The machine scans his phone, emits a beep, and the man enters the store.

This scene is a troubling one to Elaine Waxman, a senior fellow at Washington, D.C.-based think tank Urban Institute who studies food security and the stigma associated with using federal assistance programs like SNAP.

Waxman worries that stores like Amazon Go would create a shopping experience that's only open to some.

"It's built on a number of assumptions that probably don't hold for many low-income people, but also other segments of the populations," she said.

Amazon's assumptions? That their shoppers have smartphones with a data plan and a bank account, Waxman said.

The Seattle-based company did not respond to multiple requests for comment, so it's unclear whether their grocery shoppers will need smartphones or bank accounts.

According to a 2015 study by Pew Research Center, 68 percent of U.S. adults own a smartphone, and ownership levels continue to rise. The study shows that young people with high income and education levels were more likely to own a smartphone.

Just over half of those who earn less than $30,000 a year had a smartphone, compared with 69 percent who make $30,000 or more. And just 30 percent of those 65 and older owned a smartphone, versus 86 percent of those ages 18 to 29.

As for banking, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found in 2015 that 7 percent of American households did not have a checking or savings account.

If these populations are unable to shop at certain stores, it creates "segmented experiences," and people who have more resources will shop differently, Waxman said.

Keith Leavitt, who teaches ethics in business at Oregon State University, said these differences can contribute to something akin to a "poverty tax."

The "tax" is levied when a person pays more for items because he or she can't afford a money-saving membership like Amazon Prime, or can't afford to buy in bulk or stock up when items are on sale.

What's more, shoppers without access to a car are more likely to shop at a nearby corner store, and pay more for staples than they might at a supermarket.

While it may seem like people with lower incomes could just shop somewhere else, Leavitt said, the differences in shopping options could widen the class divide.

"High-tech stores with no labor overhead will likely offer significantly lower prices," Leavitt explained. "Meanwhile the lower socio-economic status, no smartphone, cash-consumer won't benefit from those savings."

-- Anna Marum

amarum@oregonian.com

503-294-5911

@annamarum