A friend asked me an interesting hypothetical:

Categorize the election like a Texas Hold’em hand. Which two cards does Trump have? Which two does Hillary have? What’s the river?

I spent a little more time than a reasonable person should have playing with some odds and equity calculations, but I came up with a simple example. I designed the situation so that the probability of each scenario follows somewhat the same trends as the 538 prediction model.

Pre-Flop

In Texas Hold’em, each player is dealt 2 cards, then there is a round of betting. This is called the pre-flop stage.

Hillary Clinton was dealt a queen of spades (Qs) and a jack of spades (Js). This is a good hand. It’s not the best, but it is playable against most players in most positions.

Donald Trump was dealt an 8 of diamonds (8d) and a 7 of diamonds (7d). This is not a good hand, but it’s better than some people expect. He has some speculative value, but it’s a hand that should probably just be folded pre-flop out of position.

Pre-Flop

Right now, Clinton has a 62.1% chance to win. But the campaign is just getting started.

Flop

Next, we deal 3 cards face up. This is called the flop. The cards are 7s Td 4s. This corresponds to a point in the campaign around the time of the Republican National Convention.

Flop

Trump hit his 7, but Clinton has two over cards and a flush draw, so she is still technically the favorite with 52.5% chance of winning. However, if the hand were to end right now, Trump would win.

Turn

Next, we deal one more card face up. This is called the turn. In this scenario, the turn card is a Jd.

Turn

This is a good card for Clinton, as it gives her a better pair, but Trump still has outs. With an inside straight draw and a flush draw, there is still a 34% chance that Trump can pull off a win.

The River/Election Day

This election, much like poker, still has a lot of uncertainty. As this hand of poker currently sits, Clinton is in the lead. But with one card left to be dealt (The River), there is still plenty of opportunity for Trump to come out on top.

Good cards for Trump — Any diamond will complete the flush and give Trump the win. A 9 will give Trump a straight, but a 9 of spades will give Clinton the flush (which is better than a straight). An 8 (that is not a spade) gives Trump 2 pair. A 7 gives Trump three of a kind.

Number of cards that can give Trump a win: 15

Good cards for Clinton — Clinton needs to avoid any of the Trump win cards. Any random card that does not help Trump gives Clinton the win with a pair of jacks over a pair of sevens. Also, any spade gives Clinton the flush and the win.

Number of cards that can give Clinton a win: 29