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the ... welcome to the big interview from the Wall Street jungle I'm Simon Constable guest today is Jim Rogers who needs no introduction ... would anyone anyway ... to mark the finger at one of the and fast you've run the book Investment by Katie Wilson wrote a book ... on commodities well-known and in this place full Investing ... in emerging markets notably China ... we know that the US and what's the world's economies Olympian along ... China's roaring ahead ... Sichuan of bubblegum pop anytime soon ... China is certain to have setbacks won't waste time is no question about that ... that raised interest rates four times in the last year or so ... the great reserve requirements eight times in trying to cool things up ... I hope to successfully be good for them to be good for the world ... some short-term positive is that ... is what America rose to greatness we had fifteen the presence in the nineteenth century civil war ... that very few human rights we have very low rule of law ... periodic massacres in the streets ... you could buy and sell Qantas from where you can still buy a joke on December they would she or they would see though is that ... we'll Rex ... lots of setbacks the we became the most successful country the twentieth century and that's the round you see for China now ... oh yes yes there are plenty of said ... I don't know what I don't know when I don't know why ... but every company a family of individually rises ... also has consolidation ... the least we know that ... democracy is said to be I looked real good um countries don't start off with democracy beget which then they get democracy typically ... is the universal belongs to happen when America was which when you see coming to China ... well ... the opening of more immoral I first went to China in nineteen eighty four it was when TV when Radio one newspaper ... when soaked ... in a little or no cost ... the other dozens of scores of media outlets ... the Internet is everywhere people demonstrate every weekend China demanding their rights ... it's happened it's it's happening now ... Plato said in a bid to the societies evolve from dictatorship ... to oligarchy ... to democracy to chaos ... and back to dictatorship and start over again ... it seems to happen in a hit happen with Korea Huatai one of things to be happy with that China to ... some to China looks ... bomb on to become the world's biggest economy ... Willis of the soon to think American people are ready for ... well north of NovaMed I read anything like that America was to be the Number one in forever and and ... that's that's the mentality this year but by the way even though China's going to be the largest economy ... will be the largest per capita come from for many years past I like to but they're certainly on them up with Richard Toshack trajectory ... and America's not ... one other things the be ... the Chinese government has to deal with ... his house to cool down economy you alluded to earlier ... one of the same time it has two for one it's people with growth because that becomes come to an expectant ... mother was the management of on rest ... home again and do that is not possible is on time for a possible to walk ... the will find that ... I hadn't in the next thirty as well as ... America did it meant the button again and lots of serious serious problems ... in those races nineteen o seven US went bankrupt ... the whole thing Washington panic of nineteen seven and nineteen was that was exactly right ... J P Morgan had to step in and Bailey right now ... China's could have that kind of pounds Whitley to overthrow the government I doubt it but ... let's suppose that that ... that had to bring back Mao TSE Tung ... they'll be throwing out the contest ... though ... MASI does not coming back ... I assure you ... China's Baidu the contest ever again you mention that that the US but on one bus to ninety seven that the molten iron Samoa people bail out the US ... if China does buster you didn't allow ... them to IKEA for goodness sake don't have that would have to bail them out ... no I don't know who would be a time ... when China's that ... he would resign ... it got over three trillion dollars ... of reserves sitting in the intra Asia as opposed to the United States which is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world ... if if China goes bust ... a lot of people in trouble too ... while but let's stick with the US and the US being in a pickle ... output reached the debt ceiling on does no more money to spend on fiscal stimulus ... the Fed has said that basically did it ... become too much more Mana tree policy one again into is that it is a noble ... what I hope that somebody will wake up the thank goodness knows we made a lot of mistakes and that has forty s we gotta do something about it I mean if you spend all your brother spends all his money ... over and over and over again funny somebody says Tim OKE brother in law ... he cut a shape the ... facts are facts You broke ... their way when we get in shape up and deal with the fact that we are broke one that is a growing chorus saying that the new Congress kick swung to punt ... on some cables I hope it will pay with a big questions after the election ... is of the why is it can be an easy after nonetheless time and they say everything every year wait for the elections in the election comes in and they say the same thing again ... will wait for the next election ... now we can add up into the market is getting sooner rather than later ... the market that is that we don't care about the election you worry about connection when identified with this anymore in those days are getting very ... helpless might use it he said this year ... it could conceivably happen this fall I would suspect that we'll be ... setting within the next five years I'm not very good and market timing but it the second half of its fall line-up that I mumble what happened and I'm in it but that's to be a crisis to the dollar collapse the TSE bonds collapsing you see interest rates going through the roof ... is seeing serious and financial turmoil ... and is an avoidable now this point ... see how it's avoid low because you know ... we have to cut spending with an axe ... what the Chiang so ... I'm the winner with what they have real trouble ... and someone has got to understand is the simple facts ... David by gauges reader wise DowJones ... they would know he's a simple facts that have to be dealt with ... how do you impress upon Congress to actually do something that voters don't really want ... Simon ... no country in history the Scottish Open to this kind of situation ... has gotten out without a crisis worsened the crisis ... the only way you'll get the attention in Washington is to have a crisis ... our focus to stem the crisis then the whole will as Oh my God something that would be done ... they'll be thrown out electorate will throw them out ... it would start out with people who with these hopefully ... try to deal with a crisis so it's a little crisis got a mini crisis a cameo crisis ... could be a good thing if they get to some amassed a warrant was as always I was the way this is what the scope of this the smaller of the crisis the better ... there's gotta be enough to get people's attention ... you see what happened in two thousand ate we have ... our little crisis in Guinea buys attention ... it bailed out to friends on Wall Street they bailed out of the financial sector they didn't deal with the problem and then they started spending more more more money in a second printing one more money ... in India with a crisis they try to push into the next election ... now ... during the financial crisis to the U S government put in place the date the stimulus or was it contains EMI idea ... experimented with or without the one thing to do that fiscal stimulus to spend for projects absolutely the wrong thing to do totally the wrong thing to do it but the Japanese have been trying for the past twenty years ... not living in a body go bankrupt ... you know the term zombie banks the zombie own any of the Japanese twenty years later ... twenty years later the Japanese stock market is down seventy one now eighty percent ... below where it was twenty years ago it didn't work in Japan it's not going to work is going to make things worse I'm you know ... I'm sure that ... some politicians will find them inside ... we would try to this post amiss when you just try mauling to spend more they would want to own an animal ... the site of the casino along ... with the side ... that that we're required to put ads at the last time around the taken them now would be guarantees to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac address to when Kane quadruple night getting him when Kane printing more money the bargain have enough traits ... were proven Anqi depending emo at the end of the US might pay for my ... papers with cotton wheat don't have enough caught in the world ... for by Nikita press that much more money to block it will not take it Mishel ... regulation holes ... industry as it is that getting to pummeling or have too much regulation ... in the U S economy now worn on now twenty twenty think the Pushes too much regulation you see what's happening with ... the banking bill ... but they did was they said several thousand pages they said the data set up Ali's committee has ... been about to write new regulations and this is a nightmare ... this to a more more businesses going offshore ... ten years ago ... in the all IPO's in the stock market would I mean you are ... now very few large IPO's and in New York the Dow and the rest of the world has Washington in its wisdom is driven the business alike ... the current rival busily a lot of people and they went and during the financial collapse of the two thousandeight two thousand and nine said ... a lot of this could've been avoided if we have had more regulation ... if the Fed has been looking and have been on the bull ants looking out the loans to seize the Longford Good ... an underwriting was good and lots of stuff we have the regulations ... the Federal Reserve is supposed to look at the banks ... and supposed to make sure they do with this approach of the regulations of the Ashes we have we need competent regulators when net income for regulars ... enough they had the lead when Lehman but now Lomb ... long-term Capital Management in nineteen ninety eight ... if they hadn't that play out ... Lehman Brothers would still be in business this to the still be and they would've all so much money ... in nineteen ninety eight ... captial would've been decimated they would have to fire lots of incompetent people could still be around ... and and you think that that ... that message has gone through to the bank is one of course not of course that the bank is still getting bailed out ... whenever they have a problem safely safely safely say they have degrees visiting the doctor grenade to save me some money ... and the gets a ... week away from ... my with letting go bankrupt cantilever PP ... Eve in nineteen eighty nine EA for a sense of long-term debt demand had played out and thereby got whacked ... or even two thousand when everybody got whacked ... we would have the situation is right ... that the market more of ... the problem is Washington would never let the market work ... they wanted to bail Everybody out instead of letting the market white doubt people ... are wiped out excess ... the authority over all along the pundits of pointing to the final of the banks on the water companies as as the resigning success the saying look the government made ... some money on on this and because of a bank stood up in all the money back and and and and some more ... ominous and with almost all of it back from the war so bailouts ... is that not a success ... they didn't get on the back first of all they've they've placed the books if you and I ... kept the books the way the government keeps their mostly been jailed in Allied promised ... Obama says things like the money was has lived in my administration has been paid back he ignores the fact ... that the previous mining has an unpaid debt ... now this is not a success ... this is more the same thing a propping up the euro propping up some big companies ... in Scandinavian during his had the same problem ... but they let people go bankrupt it was ... terrible for two or three years ... but they haven't healed ... fifteen or twenty years success ... sense and why Japan is still wallowing around ... with zombie banks ... I way is not going to work ... the other way does ... the switch gears and from a ... technology Marc Andreessen and interviewed in the seats ... on for the full Big Interview Sangh that the non tech is not a bubble ... you think of us ... well my own portfolio among commodities among currencies in short technology in the United States but is he going to get as much or lose my ... right eye and ... I would I would say that that's what is that it is not a bubble that certain area of excess one is that he's a very small man Hommel BC as of the once you're on ... will will run from telemarketer ... eye is on tomorrow that I am not maybe the one that fell in love with the Sea of reasons for thinking that that tech is of about is I look at the world ... economy right now the excesses that I see I can still issue of ... American technology ... maybe it's not of bubbly yet but it certainly says ... I need to have choice ... and this is the best play these are the two best places I know for sure one of those times you see no froth ... out there and apply ... I believed and ... I mean use only did with coveted double the president ... that doesn't anyone will mind the mispricing of a bank as the bank is Discover wrong but that's always what they say in bubbles every go back to nineteen eighty eight nineteen ninety nine you could say that one of those things to double the first day ... was mispricing by the bank or you would say ... it's froth in the markets of success I say a success ... even the price they pay priced it ... was lunacy ... it was already over prices Cupido than in the money it is very low and ... entry barriers what about Facebook that's oversee getting a lot of attention from a lot of people it seems to be a big game changes ... not just in terms of business but in times of politics well why it ... is is the company of about me do you think and if so why ... well I don't have a clue that never seen the financials as ... a guide to the more we keep hearing which appearing figures in the tens of billions ... Tom ... you know it really is a bear market valuation but I don't know what they are what they potentially can ... I don't see ... that that that that that this is that if they are earning the kind of money was to have to earn ... in big it's not over you but I don't know the only ... star ... Sonny Bill oestrogen or maybe even find a while and I will I will and I will endeavour to do that day during my trip any any of the signs of of of ... a frothy saying it and that that sum was what I see Apple and I see them ... pumping out ... of new goods that are so ... profitable ... that are loved by the people who find the money I have and I pad I think it's great to get the best thing ever doesn't hurt my shoulder like a laptop to ... calm people the last hour I Phones that was on how well that might cause for years ... that seems to be all good Imax will haunt the TAC interest is always great success stories yes ... but when you have been taking up I mean making all tech stocks rise ... in price then maybe is there something wrong ... Apple's done a brilliant shot the summit is gonna be suffering ... at the moment I don't see any tech stocks going down the tubes ... they're all moving up ... there with the role moving up and then you short position ... I'm not the way you think ... um well let's turn to commodities pushes euro area I know you ... you you love ... on we seen ... a ton of volatility in some commodities potentially Silva which has been dry weight saying ... massively ... aam de think the bull market is over for was so but is it was it was a spike top announ and nemisii did well I certainly have to if it were to fast Avici has come down thirty or forty percent ... I own so I'm delighted to see it is that it could be kept going up ... I would've had to sell it though I want silver to go down ... the best markets are the ones that go up like that for years that's how you make lots and lots and lots of money ... that's what I expect to happen this you can have more consolidation is ... Rises consolidations rises on hold for years and and and people eat the same thing with Goldman alum and when you go ... I don't go their own ... could have a correction it's been ... up for ten years in a row with an uptick in quarters in a row it's extremely unusual in that connection it so ... a correction would be good for the tide in its own ago the goes down by more for what he sees with PC Gold and silver done just up up up up um can consistently in this undulating land for several more years yet I don't see anything is going to stop that is there for years to come ... now the Fed Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke he has said the fact ... that his ... long fine program the Kiwi to the printing money ... programs ... I'd ... have had no effect on the commodities markets and that the Tories markets have been jumping around because of individuals supply and demand problems ... he's you want ... well that's why we have a Wal-Mart dinkum it's that he is exactly right about that when he says that writing money said no effect ... I mean that's ludicrous summon the man has never been right ... ever ... go back and do a study of his record than seventy years and watched ... the aisle if if if I were wrong every month for a year ago and have me on his show ... then it has been wrong every every month for eight years are delighted by pays attention to what you eat when some things he's been right about it says would mean much to avoid the flight Sham minus one thing the Fed was ... worried about what's going on to the analysts worry about in the body of work ... to limit them into some reason official commodities like oil for instance there is a war going on in Libya which has an important oil producer is one percent of the Montana Moskovitz generally considered to be ... drawn from the finely balanced ... isn't that what we can point to with oil pay high ... IEEE in as Energy agency's going around the world ... begging for people to listen to the known reserves of oil ... are declining as the rate of six percent a year ... we have staggering problems facing us ... in the energy community over the next ten twenty years ... the little day-to-day among them leaving year to year blips but not terribly important a big picture ... known reserves of oil when stated that time we've got up on some oil wheat gotta find diminishing and that's the reason for high prices of oil as to why says if you know what is a lot of oil ... in announcing the form of what the ... at the wood is a fight ... indeed knew that the gas gas prices are depressed for for a ... while because there's a lot about what's going on was gas prices gone up well one thing the decline in oil reserves of what ... you know we don't have new sources of energy that can come on stream fast enough ... with the new crew problems in Japan as the slow that down even more ... the only sources around or you are a UK which is now delayed ... the solar which is not efficient not a competitive ... and that when we ... went ... this is that the input YooMee for efficient ... it cannot come on fast and still can't have this that ... the switch to public markets and was the growing a ground record full Commodities on has been some bad harvest has been some components of that but cocoa and drums with which we know things ... can affect legitimately looked at those things of those events in sight yet ... that's why the prices on the Smarties high and it's nothing to do with a printing money ... it's certainly a bull market where supply and demand out of that there were no US tops ... we still have a ball marketing combined but printing money ... is destroyed by a gasoline onto the five makes it worse ... when people see money moving being debased currency being debased they want to own something that real ... look of agriculture can get this stuff about the short run ... than whether promise ... the average age of farmers in America's fifty eight years ago ... continues to be sixty eight is still alive ... we have a staggering agricultural problem facing the world ... when not demanded any food at any price in a few years and that something happens ... this is nothing to do all but certain something to do with their harvest here and there ... the problem is Agricole's has been a disaster for thirty years ... we have had no investment in agriculture the encounter when people ... we've got a serious problem is that some some of economic North Korea ... um this woman is a Fama um I've I've gotta ask you um another couple questions one is ... a lot of people called for the regulations of commodity markets on commodity markets inherently ... regulate Oval with us to know what can you make light of ... what ... it's ... like you know ... it in the world six eighty six million barrels of oil which are consumed every day three hundred sixty five days a year ... all over the world ... Shariq unregulated Chicago you drive the business of joy just as they drove the IPO business of show ... that gonna do some things I don't know what they do ... it's gonna make the situation worse politicians always ... blame the problem of evil speculators and don't foreigners to CFTC involvement in ... that it adds extra scrutiny in the commodities markets will make the stores and was thus we assign extra scrutiny Amanda amassing extra scrutiny ... I'm saying that it may tighten up and make it double going to have liquid and free markets that's gonna be a mess things up yet ... they see everything I do the bull sees everything I did ... this not the province making ... the markets go offshore that's the problem ... well that all were done with that ... all Allison US dollars into Mahwah because in pounded down so much ... everybody is bearish on including me and I'm the most bearish but when I sold ninety five percent of the most risk on the dollar is buying dollars ... but that but I buy it for trying out my hobbled ... from the harbour trader Noble short-term ... trader market timer ... but I saw that ninety percent of people bearish on the dollar so ... I stepped in most of the Aussie to go down also take a loss ... if the drought is set with a profit if like me you paid in cosmology to ... hmm who ... flew to Asia ... where you get paid and ... in the Asian hard currencies ... OK thank you very much Jim Rogers some ... commodity Investec's for now thank you very much and thank you Simon great fun