2013 College football countdown | No. 71: Houston

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

Other than the brutal misstep at offensive coordinator, the loss to Texas State, the lone win against a bowl team, the 72-42 loss at SMU, the defensive meltdowns against Conference USA's best, the 17-point decline on offense and the 14-pount increase on defense, it's hard to imagine a finer debut for Houston coach Tony Levine and his staff.

This is all tongue in cheek, of course. Houston mumbled its way through perhaps the program's most disappointing season in decades, falling from a near-Bowl Championship Series berth in 2011 – under Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin – to the lower range of Conference USA, with each Saturday seemingly worse than the last.

But let's not throw this all at Levine; Houston not only changed coaches but also drastically changed personnel, and the Cougars' inexperience and ineffectiveness at quarterback, offensive line and linebacker doomed this team long before September. The program's not broken, in other words. It just needs to be retooled.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

The baseline remains the same: Houston should win the West division, and anything less would be a disappointment. But the Cougars are still going to take some lumps, especially in the early going. It's hard to believe, but the Cougars might be even more frenetic than they were under the previous staff. This will make Houston interesting to watch, even if the results tail off from last season. Based on talent, solid leadership and dozens of very young and promising underclassmen, Houston is going to net one final Conference USA championship before heading to the Big East. I think nine wins during the regular season, though with this schedule, anything less than eight victories would be a disappointment.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: Yikes. Houston stepped out of the gate with a 30-13 loss to Texas State, making its Football Bowl Subdivision debut, and if anything, the margin of victory doesn't do the Bobcats' performance justice – or explain just how inept the Cougars looked against a far inferior opponent. It didn't get much better from there: Levine fired first-year offensive coordinator Mike Nesbitt after just one game, replacing him with assistant Travis Bush; the offense rebounded a touch, scoring at least 35 points in each of the next five games, but the defense – which allowed 36.0 points per game – was among the nation's worst. Under Sumlin and Art Briles, Houston was able to offset continued defensive woes with one of the top offenses in college football. That wasn't an option for Levine in 2012. An unforgettably bad season that must, against the odds, be forgotten.

— High point: A 35-14 win over Rice on Sept. 29. It was Houston's first win on the year after an 0-3 start, not to mention its lone victory against an opponent with more than four wins.

— Low point: Texas State was the worst point, but other losses came close. There was a 72-42 loss to SMU, a pick-six bonanza, and losses to East Carolina, Tulsa and Marshall by the combined score of 133-76.

— Tidbit: Houston wrapped its 17-year run in Conference USA with two conference championships, in 1996 and 2006, and three title-game appearances. Overall, the Cougars never finished lower than third in the West Division. The Cougars' overall record in Conference USA was 68-57, with that record hampered by four seasons with eight or more losses from 1997-2001. In total, Houston had 44 first-team all-conference picks, 55 second-team picks and 51 players earn the league's All-Freshmen honors.

— Tidbit (schedule edition): While Houston is joining a new league, it has played every team in the American at least once – as you might expect – with the exception of Rutgers. The Cougars' career record against the American is 79-49-1: 13-8 against Cincinnati, 17-10-1 against SMU, 7-7 against Louisville, 2-0 against Temple, 11-9 against Memphis, 1-2 against UCF, 28-11 against Memphis and 0-2 against South Florida.

— Tidbit (passing edition): Houston is one of two schools in the FBS, joining Hawaii, with two quarterbacks among the career top 10 for career passing yards: Case Keenum (19,217) is first and Kevin Kolb (12,964) is 10th. Though still throwing for 3,941 yards, last year's team is the lone Houston squad over the last six yards to complete less than 60% of its attempts and one of only two, along with 2010, to toss at least 20 interceptions. The one thing last year's team shares with Houston's 2010 version is the starting quarterback.

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 14: OG Jacolby Ashworth (Washington), WR Donnie Avery (Kansas City), LB Sammy Brown (St. Louis), WR Pat Edwards (Detroit), CB D.J. Hayden (Oakland), DE Phillip Hunt (Philadelphia), DT David Hunter (Houston), QB Case Keenum (Houston), QB Kevin Kolb (Buffalo), CB Loyce Means (Green Bay), TE Fendi Onobun (Chicago), S Nick Saenz (Tampa Bay), LB Phillip Steward (St. Louis), OT Sebastian Vollmer (New England).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— NFL quarterbacks, last name starts K-

1. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco

2. Case Keenum, Houston

3. Kevin Kolb, Buffalo

4. Mike Kafka, Jacksonville

5. Ryan Katz, Denver

COACHING

— Tony Levine (Minnesota '96), 6-7 after one full season. Technically, Levine was named as Kevin Sumlin's full-time replacement in time for the Cougars' lopsided bowl win over Penn State after the 2011 season; he was named as the program's 12th head coach on Dec. 22, more than a week before the TicketCity Bowl. He was promoted from within Sumlin's staff: Levine joined Houston in 2008 as the team's special teams coordinator, tight ends coach and inside receivers coach after spending two years as a strength and conditioning assistant with the Carolina Panthers. While it was with the Cougars that Levine made his name – though he remained largely unknown outside of Conference USA – he did bring nearly a decade of college experience to the table in 2008.

His career began at Texas State, where he coached the tight ends and receivers from 1997-99. After two years as a graduate assistant at Auburn, Levine served one season at Louisiana Tech (2002) and three years at Louisville (2003-5), first as the director of football operations and then, for his final two seasons, as the special teams coordinator and outside linebackers coach. It was at Houston that Levine's strengths – his ability to rally this team, not to mention his wonderful work with the wide receiver position – became clearly evident to those associated with the program.

His drawbacks were simple: Levine had never been a coordinator, nor had he held an assistant position at a BCS conference program; normally, these are coaching prerequisites. But Houston was looking for continuity with this hire, and Levine's knowledge of this roster, this system, this program and its fan base made him a solid hire at a crucial juncture in Houston's history. Unfortunately, he stumbled coming out of the gate.

— Tidbit (coaching edition): Let's hope last year's embarrassment involving ex-offensive coordinator Mike Nesbitt gave Levine greater insight into the importance of due diligence when filling out a coaching staff. Houston will have new coordinators on each side of the ball in 2013, with former Oklahoma State assistant Doug Meacham taking over the offense and former NFL assistant David Gibbs the defense. Gibbs hasn't worked as an assistant on the FBS level since 2005, when he was at Auburn, so he'll hit a bit of a learning curve. When it comes to Meacham, however, UH hired a coach extremely familiar with the program's preferred offensive style; in addition, hiring Meacham allows former coordinator Travis Bush to focus primarily on the Cougars' running game.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: New year, same question: Can Houston trust junior David Piland with this offense? It's a question the staff must answer soon – today, or yesterday – to give the Cougars the sort of continuity and consistent production it lacked at the position a season ago. That wasn't supposed to be the case: Piland was a pleasant surprise in 2010, when the then-true freshman replaced an injured Keenum and produced at a fairly high level, all things considered. That he disappeared a year ago, throwing far too many interceptions and showing zero confidence, may either be a byproduct of Piland's own deficiencies as an FBS quarterback or a result of the team's own inherent issues. Either way, Levine needs to make a decision. At least UH has other options arriving before fall camp, joining Piland and sophomore Bram Kohlhausen: John O'Korn is a really good prospect for this program, transfer Billy Cosh comes from one of the nation's premier JUCO programs and incoming freshman Greg Ward was one of the best quarterbacks in the state of Texas as a senior. If I had to guess, I'd say O'Korn or Ward is the quarterback of the future – the latter thanks to his experience in this sort of offensive system. But is Piland the quarterback of the present? He has much to prove before the opener.

One thing that was obvious last season was the lack of rapport between Piland and his wide receivers. One explanation: Piland and these receivers were inexperienced not just with each other but in this system altogether. Another year of seasoning, playing pitch and catch, will lead to a stronger performance. UH has enough depth to survive without senior Shane Ros, who will miss 2013 with a knee injury, and senior Dewayne Peace, who is academically ineligible, especially if sophomores Deontay Greenberry (47 receptions for 589 yards) and Larry McDuffey (28 for 382) take the next step in their development. Outside of this pair, the Cougars have junior Daniel Spencer (41 for 579), senior Xavier Maxwell (10 for 179), several talented underclassmen and three new summertime arrivals, including JUCO transfer Markeith Ambles. The receiver corps will improve despite the two losses.

The offensive line is one of the four best in the American. For the second year in a row, Houston has suffered nearly no meaningful losses off its two-deep – this season, only tackle Jacolby Ashworth must be replaced. While the starting five won't change drastically, this much returning experience greatly bolsters the Cougars' depth across the board. Look for junior left tackle Rowdy Harper and senior right tackle Ralph Oragwu to bookend the line, with senior DeAnthony Sims and sophomore Zach Johnson the top reserves. Inside, UH could either move senior Kevin Forsch back to center or keep him at right guard, allowing junior Bryce Redman to retain the starting role he held during the second half of last season. Over at left guard, senior Ty Cloud joins Harper in giving UH a very strong weak side. In all, the line is ready to roll.

— Defense: Gibbs will become the latest coordinator tasked with creating a working balance between Houston's prolific offense and typically underachieving defense. Only twice since 2000 have the Cougars allowed less than 27.0 points per game, in 2006 and 2011; last year's defense gave up 36.0 points per game, exceeding the 30-point mark eight times – going 1-7 in such games. So here comes Gibbs, with his NFL background and eight-year absence from the FBS, there goes six starters, including two program greats in Phillip Steward and D.J. Hayden, and here comes the defense.

The biggest concerns, in no particular order: the interior of the defensive line, strong side linebacker and cornerback. The defensive line as a whole is fairly young, though not exactly devoid of experience: UH returns four linemen with at least one career start. The two most experienced options, juniors Eric Braswell and Joey Mbu (27 tackles), are likely assured starting roles at end and tackle, respectively. Sophomore Tomme Mark seems the strongest contender to join Mbu in the starting lineup at tackle, though it's entirely possible that Mark is leapfrogged by junior Jeremiah Farley, redshirt freshman B.J. Singleton, converted offensive lineman Josh McNeill or incoming freshman Nick Thurman – though the latter pair feel more like space-fillers, not starters. In addition to Braswell, Houston's ends include sophomore redshirt freshman Cameron Malveaux Desmond Pulliam, JUCO transfer Trevor Harris and two unknowns I'm excited about: sophomore Eric Eiland, a former defensive back turned linebacker turned end who could be a huge factor on passing downs, and true freshman Tyus Bowser, who could also bring heat off the edge in specific situations. I actually like what the Cougars have at end; the interior is a concern, however.

For the second year in a row, Houston must replace two starters at linebacker – and for the second year in a row, it's difficult to imagine the Cougars landing the same level of production at the position. This is especially true on the strong side, where replacing Phillip Steward is the largest task on hand: Houston has some experienced reserves moving into larger roles, but replicating Steward's impact is going to be extremely difficult. The good news – there's always good news – is that the Cougars return an all-conference pick in junior Derrick Matthews (126 tackles, 17.0 for loss), a superbly disruptive option on the weak side who move into the middle in 2013, and he's prepared to serve as the new anchor for this defense. Former LSU transfer Trevon Randle has a leg up in the competition on the weak side after excelling on the scout team a season ago; in fact, Randle's development allowed UH to move junior Efrem Oliphant down to end, adding more depth up front. On the strong side, the Cougars can turn to senior Austin Wilson, redshirt freshman Steve Taylor, incoming freshman Caleb Tucker or, if the defense wants to get smaller and quicker, senior George Bamfo.

The bad news: D.J. Hayden is gone, and players of his caliber – especially at cornerback – are few and far between. The silver lining for Houston: Hayden suffered a major injury late in 2012, which allowed Houston to tinker with different lineups at cornerback while developing experienced depth for this coming season. In all, and despite Hayden's departure, I look at this secondary as easily the most improved section of this defense. At cornerback, senior Zach McMillan (51 tackles, 5 interceptions) will be joined by senior Thomas Bates, who stepped into Hayden's role over the final three games of last season. While McMillan is a certain starter, Bates could be pushed by junior Alex Tillman, redshirt freshman Brandon Wilson and JUCO transfer Turon Walker. Houston returns sophomores Trevon Stewart (126 tackles) and Adrian McDonald (35 tackles, 2 interceptions) at safety, but look for McDonald to move back into a reserve role after Boise State transfer Lee Hightower learns this defense. Hightower is a flexible – he can play safety and cornerback – and athletic defensive back with easy all-conference potential if used correctly. He's a huge addition for this defense. In this case, McDonald and JUCO transfer Kent London can add some quality depth. In total, the secondary strikes me as an extremely improved unit despite losing Hayden to the NFL.

— Special teams: Houston returns senior Richie Leone, a big-legged punter who helps out the Cougars' defense on punts and kickoffs. He's the lone specialist back from last season, however. Leone is an option at kicker as well, though the staff will give three-star freshman Ty Cummings every opportunity to win the job during fall camp. Houston's production in the return game took a steep decline last season, and whether the Cougars bounce back might depend on how willing Levine is to use a running back like Ryan Jackson on kickoffs or punts. After a high-profile departure, Jackson might be needed elsewhere.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Running back: Houston lost one of the nation's premier skill players in running back Charles Sims, a multiple-time all-conference pick who transferred to West Virginia earlier this month – and as an aside, I can't imagine a more perfect fir Sims' skill set than Dana Holgorsen's offense. For UH, losing a player of Sims' quality simply can't be overstated: Levine and this staff have talent to work with, in the backfield and elsewhere, but no one player comes to matching what Sims would have brought to the table as a senior. Therefore, it's on returning backs like sophomores Kenneth Farrow (466 yards) and Jackson, along with converted safety Kent Brooks and a handful of unproven options, to join as a unit and replace Sims' production – doing it as a committee, not alone. Is this possible? I would say that duplicating Sims' yardage on the ground shouldn't be a huge issue; Farrow and Jackson can combine for 1,300 yards, give or take. The bigger concern is finding a way to replace Sims' production as a receiver, and that's going to really task this young backfield. Few teams could lose a player of Sims' caliber and come out clean on the other side.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Temple: I'm just picking one game from the first half, the Cougars' opener in the American against the Owls, but every game through October is vital. Why? One reason is that UH needs a jolt of confidence after last season; starting 1-3 could doom this team before the season even gets started. Another reason is Houston's November schedule: at UCF, at Louisville, home for Cincinnati and SMU. The Cougars need to be at five wins before November to get back to bowl play.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: It's not going to be smooth and easy for Houston, much as it was in 2011, thanks to the questionable situation under center, the changing cast at running back and the concerns dotting the defensive front seven. In addition, the Cougars are undoubtedly set to take on a stronger and more mine-filled schedule than in the recent past, especially in the season's final month. Despite these negative factors, I still believe in the team's ability to move beyond last season and leap back into the postseason in either fourth or fifth place in the American.

Moving above fourth seems like a stretch: Louisville's a presence on the national stage, Cincinnati remains potent, UCF is a sneaky contender and Rutgers has more than enough talent to make one final run at the BCS. Nevertheless, Houston should not be satisfied with anything less than six wins and a return to bowl play. Much of the reason for optimism stems from the projected improvement offensively, whether as a result of Piland's increased comfort level under center and rapport with his skill players, the very strong offensive line, especially on the weak side, or the depth and potential at wide receiver. Now, running back is a concern – but it's survivable, in my mind, even if the Cougars have little room for error. On defense, I look at this secondary and the young-but-impressive talent on the outside of the front seven and envision a group capable of slowing down passing games in the American. Of greater issue – and this is a real concern – is Houston's ability to stop the run along the interior of the defensive line. This is not a perfect team by any stretch, of course, but in my opinion, the positives outweigh the negatives.

In all, I'm picking Houston to win either six or seven games during the regular season, hinging on its early-season effectiveness. Pessimistically, I sincerely doubt the Cougars' ability to start 2-4 and reach the postseason; optimistically, I see Houston starting strong, unlike in 2012, and winning one game in November to clinch bowl eligibility. There's too much talent, speed and athleticism for this team to continue last season's disappointing ways. The one thing that's missing is confidence, however – so Houston must start with a bang against the weaker opponents in the first half.

— Dream season: Houston starts 6-2 and then splits its four November games, booming back into bowl play in third place in the American.

— Nightmare season: The Cougars beat Southern, Temple and UTSA, but that's it.

— All-name team nominee: S Nomluis Fruge.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 70? This university was the first in the United States to create a degree program designed to train police officers.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: American Athletic Conference

— Location: Houston

— Nickname: Cougars

— Returning starters: 14 (9 offense, 5 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 30

— 2012 record: 5-7 (4-4)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 95

— 2013 schedule:

Aug. 30 Southern

Sept. 7 at Temple

Sept. 21 vs. Rice (at Reliant Stadium)

Sept. 28 at UTSA

Oct. 12 Memphis

Oct. 19 BYU

Oct. 26 at Rutgers

Oct. 31 South Florida

Nov. 9 at UCF

Nov. 16 at Louisville

Nov. 23 Cincinnati

Nov. 29 SMU

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.