European commission president says he expects deal at summit next month, in boost to David Cameron’s hopes of June referendum

The president of the European commission has said he is “quite sure” of a deal with the UK in February over its EU membership, in a boost to David Cameron’s hopes of holding a referendum in the summer.

Jean-Claude Juncker said the talks were very difficult but he expected to see an agreement at a summit of EU leaders next month.



“I am quite sure that we will have a deal,” he said. “Not a compromise, [but] a solution, a permanent solution in February.”



Cameron has previously said he is hopeful of a deal in February. Cameron told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show two weeks ago: “What I would like to see is a deal in February, then a referendum that would follow.”

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Pro- and anti-EU campaigners have expressed scepticism that a deal is possible at next month’s summit and are working on the basis that it is most likely to be agreed at another summit in March.

One pro-EU campaigner told the Guardian last week: “February is not that long away. You have got to get a lot of detail worked out. February is looking a little ambitious.”

An anti-EU campaign source said: “There is a lot to do to get it all done by February. No 10 is just saying it wants a deal in February to keep up the momentum.”

But a deal in February would allow a referendum to go ahead in June, meaning Cameron could avoid a drawn-out campaign over the summer.

At least 16 weeks have to elapse between the conclusion of the negotiations and the referendum, to allow for the passage of secondary legislation setting the rules of the campaign.

The government has ruled out holding a referendum in July because the Scottish school holidays will already be under way.

Cameron is seeking to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership in four areas: a ban on EU migrants claiming in-work benefits if they have been in the country for less than four years; greater protections for non-euro countries; excluding Britain from the “ever-closer union” goal in the EU treaty; and giving national parliaments greater powers to stop EU laws.



Migrant benefits is seen as the most contentious item on the UK wishlist, because the rest of the EU is opposed to their citizens being treated differently to British workers. Poland and Hungary are implacably against limits on migrant benefits, and the European commission has vowed to defend the EU’s freedom of movement principle.



But Juncker warned against seeing the other issues as easier to resolve. Agreement on ever-closer union, the role of national parliaments and the relationship between the euro ins and the outs would also be difficult to agree, he said.



His comments on the UK came at wide-ranging new year press conference, where he struck a pessimistic note about the multiple crises facing the EU, ranging from terrorism to the future of Ukraine and the continent’s ability to deal with refugees fleeing chaos and war in the Middle East and Africa.



Europe was “running the risk of major reputational damage worldwide” because of its failure to tackle the refugee crisis, he said. “We are the richest continent in the world … now we appear as the weakest part.”

He criticised EU member states for not doing “what needs to be done” to resettle refugees around the bloc. More than a million refugees landed on European shores by sea in 2015, with Germany and Sweden giving shelter to the most. Fewer than 300 have been resettled elsewhere in the EU, despite hopes of sharing the numbers more equally.

Juncker said this record meant the EU had to be more modest when it talked to other countries about good governance. “Less arrogance and more performance – I think that has got to be our watchword for the future,” he said.