Hit. Hit. Hit.

For a good minute this week, Bill Polian sounded like a kid brother having a long day at the Battleship board-game table. He repeated the word with a flat tone, awaiting his next cue to say “hit” or “miss,” fully expecting the former.

But this wasn’t a game of plastic boats.

The former Colts executive, now an ESPN analyst, agreed to reflect on the past decade-plus of No. 3 overall draft picks. The exercise underscored the opportunity that awaits the Chargers . Chances are they’ll strike plastic this evening, finding a core player for years to come. But player evaluation is a crapshoot. Not every year produces contact.

For this game, Polian makes a well-qualified scorer.

His work in Buffalo, Carolina and Indianapolis led to his 2015 induction in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. His latter two tenures also largely overlapped with the formative years of Chargers General Manager Tom Telesco.

“It is not an exact science,” Polian said of scouting. “It never can be because you’re trying to measure human beings who are making a jump from one level of skill to another. It’s vastly different. The fact that it’s surrounded by so much hype and noise is the only thing that makes people believe that somehow there’s some magic to it.

“There isn’t any magic to it. It’s a lot of hard work. And you’re going to make some good picks, and you’re going to make some bad picks.”

With that, he began.

• Jaguars defensive end Dante Fowler , 2015.

“That’s incomplete,” Polian said.

Fowler suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament last spring in his first practice. Not Fowler’s fault. That could happen to a veteran. If nothing else, the event allows to mention that NFL rookies’ bodies go through the ringer, largely expended nonstop from their college season to their NFL combine training to their pro day to the draft, with barely a break between. Many don’t hold up across 16 games.

• Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles in 2014. Hit.

• Dolphins defensive end Dion Jordan in 2013. Miss. Jordan missed all of 2015 after his most recent violation of the league’s substance-abuse policy. His future is uncertain at best.

• Browns running back Trent Richardson in 2012. Miss. Richardson is on his fourth team and last legs.

The No. 3 pick Before the 1970-AFL-NFL merger, seven players drafted third made the Pro Football Hall of Fame: 1948: Bobby Layne, QB, Lions 1949: Doak Walker, RB, Bulldogs 1952: Ollie Matson, RB, Cardinals 1962: Merlin Olsen, DT, Rams 1964: Charley Taylor, WR, Redskins 1965: Dick Butkus, LB, Bears 1968: Claude Humphrey, DE, Falcons • Since the 1970 merger, only three players drafted at No. 3 reached the Hall of Fame (although Larry Fitzgerald and Joe Thomas would be considered strong possibilities): 1980: Anthony Munoz, OT, Bengals 1989: Barry Sanders, RB, Lions 1990: Cortez Kennedy, DT, Seahawks

Then starts a hit streak: Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus , Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy , Chiefs defensive end Tyson Jackson , Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and Browns tackle Joe Thomas from 2011 to 2007.

Titans quarterback Vince Young in 2006 and Lions quarterback Joey Harrington in 2002 round out the misses. Polian passed on issuing a grade to Browns wide receiver Braylon Edwards in 2005, although he’d seem to fall closer toward the miss category. Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald in 2004 and Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson in 2003 were hits.

“So, what’s the hit rate?” Polian asked. “What’s the percentage?”

Since 2002, eight of the 12 selections he graded, or 66.7 percent, were deemed successful. That can be bumped down a tad, based on your view of Edwards. Either way, that’s the general temperature to the opportunity the Chargers have after California quarterback Jared Goff and North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz go off the board.

Most teams hit, but hardly all do.

San Diego has its share of needs, including tight end, defensive end, safety and center. There are long-term question marks at left tackle, a position that could be addressed as early as the first round in Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley. If not then, it might not be addressed at all.

Which position a draft pick plays is less important than whether that draft pick amounts to being a true player. Historically, the No. 3 slot has produced such greats as Merlin Olsen, Dick Butkus, Anthony Munoz and Barry Sanders but also misfires like Heath Shuler, Andre Wadsworth and Akili Smith.

The Chargers have eight selections in seven rounds and many roster holes.

This is Battleship, and they can ill afford to miss.

michael.gehlken@sduniontribune.com