Thank headlines from the Middle Kingdom for keeping you from dozing off completely during the mid-August haze.

There was more volatility from Shanghai this morning, along with talk of a “death cross” (see our chart of the day). But yesterday pretty much proved that anyone who’s afraid of the big bad China wolf is already out of the market, and the rest don’t care to sell on those headlines, says Jani Ziedins of the Cracked Market blog.

“Right or wrong, when no one sells a headline, it stops mattering,” he says.

But as you trudge through the month, know that your patience in this market could be rewarded, and the odds are in your favor for an upbeat end-of-year outcome for the S&P 500 SPX, -1.15% , says our call of the day. It is packed with some historical data that suggests this tortoise-like market will win in the end. Read:Why August gets no respect from investors

Begging to disagree with us, feisty contrarian Marc Faber declared yesterday that the S&P 500 is in a “stealth bear market,” peppered by far more 12-month new lows than new highs. He predicts a “substantially lower” end to the year, though we know his track record is far from perfect. Read the whole interview on CNBC here.

Mull that over between catnaps and more retail earnings, consumer prices and minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. While markets will be hanging onto any insight about a September interest-rate hike, at least one new warning has cropped up, trying to head the Fed off at the pass.

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach said yesterday that the Fed would be foolish to hike interest rates when junk bonds are sitting around four-year lows. And maybe the market can brush past China, but the Fed should definitely be alarmed about selling that is been seen in copper and commodity prices, he told Reuters. Read:Jeff Gundlach calls possible Fed hike a ‘bad idea’

Key market gauges

Data has rolled in and S&P 500 US:ESU5 and Dow US:YMU5 futures are not taking that well at all. Europe SXXP, +0.55% is also taking a further knock after coming off their lows earlier as the German parliament voted yes to Greece’s third bailout. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.28% did a U-turn from sharp losses and finished up 1.2% higher, while the Nikkei NIK, +0.17% dropped 1.6%.

Crude oil CLU25, is down ahead of upcoming inventory data, while the dollar BUXX, +0.31% has flattened out and gold US:GCZ5 is up a little.

Quote of the day

Getty Images

“It is an illegal action against the individual members of AshleyMadison.com, as well as any freethinking people who choose to engage in fully lawful online activities.” — Cheater’s website Ashley Madison reacts to an online data dump by hackers who stole user information in July.

What say ye, hackers? According to Wired: “We have explained the fraud, deceit and stupidity of ALM and their members. Now everyone gets to see their data.”

The economy

Consumer prices show higher costs of housing are soaring. CPI itself rose 0.1%.Minutes of the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting are due at 2 p.m.

Check out:MarketWatch’s Economic Calendar

The call

“This year has brought a whole lotta flat,” says Burt White, Chief Investment Officer for LPL Financial, in a note. The S&P 500, up 1.85% year-to-date, has been a big contributor. However, those reading this as a sign of doom for the market should check out his data crunch.

“We looked at data stretching back to 1950 and found that if the S&P 500 is within 2% of where it started the year as of August 1, it is more than 70% likely that the index ends the year higher, similar to the odds in any year,” he said. The S&P 500 is now about 1% higher than where it began the year.

More bullish stats: In those years where the S&P 500 does end higher, he say the average gain is about 7.4% (ex-dividends). Since the 1950s, he says there have been 30 years in which the S&P 500 was flat or down as of Aug. 1. The index ended higher in 14 of those years.

Finally, White notes that many solid years for stocks have seen pullbacks as late as October or November. “This is the classic fourth-quarter rally that we may see again this year,” he said.

He thinks earnings are the big reason the S&P 500 could finish the year with a high-single-digit return. The risk to that is a bigger China slowdown, if it isn’t accompanied by stronger growth out of Europe and Japan.

The stat

The biggest investment fund in the world, Norway’s sovereign-wealth fund, reported its first negative return — down 0.9% for the second quarter — in three years. The pain was in equities and fixed-income investments, down 0.2% and 2.2%, respectively. Real estate gained 2%. That investment is the fund’s smallest holding, as this chart shows.

Norges Bank Investment Management

The chart

IG analyst Angus Nicholson is watching the Shanghai Composite’s 50-day moving average inch closer to the 200-day moving average, which he says brings a “death cross” into play.

IG, Bloomberg

“If the [Chinese] government is tiring of its intervention measures and the market is continuing sideways around a 4000 level, the ‘death cross’ could be particularly significant,” says Nicholson.

Earnings

More retailers ahead, with Lowe’s LOW, -0.31% already reporting a profit that missed forecasts. Shares are tilting south in premarket. Staples US:SPLS is off nearly 2% after a sales warning. Target TGT, +0.69% jumped in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected results and raising its outlook for 2015.

Read more about stocks in focus for Tuesday

The buzz

Target has reached a deal with Visa V, -2.54% to reimburse card issuers up to $67 million for costs linked to the 2013 data breach. The retailer said it is working on a similar deal with MasterCard MA, -2.21% .

Airbnb says it is teaming up with China Broadband Capital and Sequoia China to expand into their home country, which it describes as “one of the biggest and fastest-growing outbound travel markets in the world.”

Random read

Let ‘er rip. Uncle Sam is joining Yelp.

Little girl tosses out a killer first pitch with a badass robotic hand.

Another potential case of the plague at Yosemite.

Charges for landowner linked to Cecil the lion’s death.

U.S. team enlists Kickstarter in giant robot duel with Japan.

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