One year ago, the Winter Top 20 featured Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Anders Nilsson, Brandon Davidson and Iiro Pakarinen. It isn’t just that 30 percent of the list graduated year over year, it is the quality of the graduates that makes that cluster so memorable. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl represent the heart of the order for a decade or more in Edmonton, and now that they have graduated the focus for Edmonton’s management and scouts has changed. No longer in need to impact centers and with an impressive and growing group of defenders, the Oilers must now look to produce complementary forwards and defensemen, and some goalies who can push up the depth chart.

I am of a mind that the Oilers are in a spot of bother with their current prospect list. As we look through the Winter Top 20 and their recent progress, let’s ask ourselves how many forwards are within two years of filling an offensive role on the team.

R Jesse Puljujarvi, Edmonton Oilers (28, 1-7-8) and Bakersfield Condors (17, 6-7-13). Back in November when I ranked him No. 1 on the prospect list, JP was 10, 1-2-3 in the NHL and hadn’t been to the AHL yet. Since then, he lost confidence and whiled away in the NHL, and started a little slowly in the AHL. He is 4-2-6 in his last six games and seems to be playing more with Anton Lander, both evens and power play. We should have a better idea about him come summertime, and he is very likely to be the No. 1 prospect on the Summer Top 20—as he will likely finish with fewer than 50 NHL games. L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (33, 11-31-42). Back in November, he was healthy and posting good numbers (14, 8-9-17), and after that went 19, 3-22-25 before injuries flushed his season. We don’t have a lot on the current malady, but since this is the second year in a row, we must assume this is potentially career-altering. A bitter pill for a legit blue-chip prospect, and devastating for Edmonton’s forward group. At this point, impossible to project him for the rest of this year, or into the fall. C-L Drake Caggiula, Edmonton Oilers (41, 4-6-10). At the time I wrote about him for the Top 20, Caggiula was still injured and had not yet played in the NHL. I like his speed and aggressive play, and he has a rugged edge that is very useful. Offensively, he is still a question mark, but Edmonton badly needs him to develop. I expect he will be an Oiler for the rest of the year, and graduate as a prospect. RD Matt Benning, Edmonton Oilers (45, 3-9-12) and Bakersfield Condors (2, 1-1-2). If I had it to do again, Benning would be No. 2 on the list. A wonderful young player with something resembling a complete skill set, and a perfect fit for an enormous need on the Oilers depth chart. He was 7, 0-2-2 when I ranked him No. 4, he is 38, 3-7-10 since. As a college player one year ago, Benning posted 41, 6-13-19 boxcars. He is off the grid, will graduate before the summer list, and we are just going to have to wait and see what he becomes. A stunner. LD Ziytat Paigin, Ak Bars Kazan (17, 1-3-4) and Bars Kazan (17, 5-2-7). Giant (6.06, 210) is a mobile defender with a monster shot from the point. He is not a truck transporter and his passing ability is good, not great. This somewhat unusual mix of skills makes him difficult to project, but what I have heard is that Paigin is a pretty smooth defender. Since I wrote about Paigin, he has spent time in the VHL (17, 5-0-5) and KHL (13, 1-1-2). The range of possibilities is wide, he could end up in Edmonton this fall or never get signed. I like his chances if he commits to the Oilers. RD Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (58, 25-37-62). Impressive final junior season for the righty blue, he is posting some impressive offense. Similar to Paigin in skill set, save for a reputation for being a quality passer. We will see how much power-play time he earns, but even without that facet of the game he projects as a promising player. He was 16, 5-8-13 when I wrote about him November 18, and is 42, 20-29-49 since. A lock for a prominent role with the Condors barring injury, he will be a welcome righty for the Leftorium. LD Caleb Jones, Portland Winterhawks (51, 7-39-46). When I ranked Bear ahead of Jones, there was a lot of pushback from posters. I understand. The truth is that Paigin, Bear and Jones are all terrific prospects, and if my rankings imply an ability to identify the best future, it is not intended. A wonderful skater who has performed well in the WHL and WJs this winter, his size and mobility make him perhaps the best of the three bets for our modern game. He was 20, 2-13-15 at the time I ranked him No. 7, and went 31, 5-26-31 since. If I had to bet on which of Jones or Bear makes his NHL debut first, it would be Jones. R Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (31, 3-5-8) and Bakersfield Condors (9, 3-7-10). Possibly the most encouraging development among Condors forwards this season, if only because Jujhar Khaira has been injured. Slepyshev has most of the elements we associate with successful NHL players—size, speed, shot—and appears to found a coach who believes in him. That is a very good recipe. Credit to Craig MacTavish for that trade designed to do exactly this—finding real talent in the third round. He was 10, 2-2-4 as an Oiler when I wrote about him, and 21, 1-3-4 since. Even still, I like him plenty. As is the case with all of these young prospect forwards—including Jesse Puljujarvi—we wonder about the offense. C-L Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (3, 1-0-1) and Bakersfield Condors (24, 8-10-18). A nice offensive season in Bakersfield was exactly what we were looking for from Khaira. Not that he should be projected on a skill line, but you have to be able to score at least some to survive in the NHL. Those AHL boxcars are music! He was 7, 4-3-7 when I ranked him No. 9 on November 24, and went 17, 4-7-11 afterward. Khaira is a very valuable prospect, especially considering the dearth of actual options available to Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan. For that reason, I think he will be protected in the expansion draft. R Tyler Pitlick, Edmonton Oilers (31, 8-3-11). Tyler Pitlick earned every game he will ever play in the NHL, and I hope someday to see an ’82’ beside GP in seasonal notation beside him. He was an efficient even-strength scorer and a good winger in a support role for Edmonton. He was 22, 6-1-7 when I wrote about him, but was injured and lost for the season nine games later. We hope to see him again in an Oilers uniform. RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea (40, 0-9-9). I was met with a lot of resistance when ranking Berglund here, but his offensive potential seems to be making itself shown in the SHL. He is averaging nine minutes a night and has recently played over 17 in a game. He was 20, 0-4-4 and averaging 7:59 when I wrote about him in late November and is 20, 0-5-5 since (now averaging 9:26 for the season). I doubt he signs and comes over for the fall, so his step forward in Sweden’s best league probably bodes well for more playing time in 2017-18. G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (3, 2.80 .919) and Bakersfield Condors (21, 2.67 .908). The longest audition since Devan Dubnyk continues. It is worthwhile because if LB can fill the backup role, the Oilers have inexpensive role player and don’t have to invest assets in trade deadline rentals or free-agent bets. We are still in a place of not knowing, but he should get a couple more chances this season. LD Griffin Reinhart, Bakersfield Condors (33, 5-7-12). At the time I wrote about him (he was the first December name) Reinhart was 5, 0-0-0 and had two issues: A poor training camp and back issues. My ranking was met with criticism, and Reinhart has in fact come back from the injury and played well. Peter Chiarelli mentioned his quality play recently and I think he is part of future plans—Vegas aside. G Nick Ellis, Bakersfield Condors (20, 2.84, .919). A fine showing in his first year pro, including a .930SP in his first seven AHL outings. His resume is very difficult to learn anything from, basically two years of part-time play, a starring role as a college senior, and now a productive plus AHL rookie year. Miles to go before knowing. RC Aapeli Rasansen, Sioux City Musketeers (25, 5-14-19). He has enjoyed a good season, with some disappointment (injuries, a ghastly team performance at the WJs). His NHLE (82gp, 4-13-17) does not scream offense, but he does have a nice range of skills and may develop as time rolls along. He was 18, 4-12-16 when I ranked him No. 15, and is 7, 1-2-3 since. The injury took a big chunk of his season. For discussion purposes, it is probably wise to draw the line after Pitlick among what we might call substantial forward prospects at this time. LD William Lagesson, UMass-Amherst (32, 2-5-7). Mobile defender who is a defense first type and a lefty, he is on a team that may not be ideal for skill set. That said, he appears to be a real NHL prospect. He is an option for signing this season, although the young Swede is eligible for two more college seasons. He started the season 14, 1-4-5 and is 18, 1-1-2 since. LD Dillon Simpson, Edmonton Oilers (3, 0-0-0) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 2-5-7). He showed well in his NHL debut (three games) and Edmonton may have yet another useful defensive option in Bakersfield. Performed well in Bakersfield and may get a call at some point before the end of the season. His issue is the same as Lagesson’s or Musil’s: There are only so many NHL spots for lefty blue, and this team has Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse ahead of him. LD Markus Niemelainen, Saginaw Spirit (47, 1-5-6). A strange year for the mobile defensive defender. His offense (65, 1-26-27) a year ago is nowhere to be seen now. He started 22, 0-2-2 through December 14, and is 25, 1-3-4 since. I know most of his value is going to be defensive, but this power outage has to be of concern. The people I have talked to about him tell me Niemelainen is still an effective defender, and his plus minus has improved from -23 to -3 season over season. The 2016 draft is springing some leaks. RC Tyler Vesel, Omaha-Nebraska (32, 12-21-33). He continues to post a strong junior year in college, and I would guess the Oilers might be tempted to sign him and bring Vesel to Bakersfield. He has been described as a player who has some range and plenty of skill, we will have to wait and see on him. I am routinely suspicious of late spikes by college men (he is 23 in April), but there is a good resume here. He is 14, 5-8-13 since I pegged him as the No. 19 prospect. G Dylan Wells, Peterboroough Petes (43, 3.06 .916). Although he is the No. 3 goalie on this list, I think Wells is having the most impressive season. From what I read, the Petes are not an especially strong club and Wells steals a lot of points. Considering where he was one year ago, Wells season is outstanding.

Unlike last year, when Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and others graduated, the summer list should have a strong returning cast, plus the first-round pick and other good selections later. Here are the current Top 20 and their GP, with graduates noted.

Jesse Puljujarvi 28 Tyler Benson 0 Drake Caggiula 41—likely to graduate Matt Benning 45—likely to graduate Ziyat Paigin 0 Ethan Bear 0 Caleb Jones 0 Anton Slepyshev 42—likely to graduate Jujhar Khaira 18 Tyler Pitlick 58—graduated as a prospect Filip Berglund 0 Laurent Brossoit 9—goalies graduate at 25 games Griffin Reinhart 37 Nick Ellis Aapeli Rasanen William Lagesson Dillon Simpson 3 Markus Niemelainen Tyler Vesel Dylan Wells

Coming up next: The secondary moderns and the distant bells. Some good defensemen way down there.