Over the next few months Mayor John Tory’s “surface subway” SmartTrack plan will likely either pick up speed or suffer derailment, making this a crucial year for Toronto transit.

Tory’s goal is ambitious, perhaps overly so. He’s committed to delivering 53 kilometres of commuter service, plus 22 stations, in just seven years. And all that at no cost to Toronto’s property taxpayers.

Frankly, it probably won’t be possible to realize this formidable scheme entirely as promised. The seven-year deadline, alone, seems hopelessly optimistic for a project of this size and complexity. One year is already gone.

For the sake of the city’s hard-pressed commuters, one can only hope Tory achieves at least some version of his bold vision. The extent to which he succeeds won’t just determine his political legacy; it has potential to touch the lives of thousands of people whose daily trip to and from the city could become easier.

An answer should arrive within a few months. That’s when, among other studies, a report is to go to Toronto city council with recommendations on exactly how to “develop and optimize” SmartTrack. It will ultimately be up to council to weigh the project’s risks and benefits before finally issuing an “all clear,” or raising a red flag.

Challenges abound. A key feature of SmartTrack is that its trains would run mainly on existing rails used by GO Transit. Relatively little new track would have to be laid down, saving money and speeding up delivery of this service.

But there’s a problem: GO Transit owns these rails and it has ideas of its own for moving forward — ideas that aren’t entirely compatible with Tory’s plan. According to Metrolinx, the agency in charge of co-coordinating transportation throughout the Greater Toronto Area, SmartTrack would represent merely “an incremental increase” to its own regional express rail service. Running it as an independent and parallel operation was deemed “unaffordable and unworkable.”

SmartTrack isn’t entirely dependent on GO. It also involves construction of a new line called the “western spur.” This three-stop route would connect Mt. Dennis station to Mississauga’s job-rich airport corporate centre. But an analysis done by the consultant HDR found that all eight possible routes for this line require “a combination of elevated and tunneled sections.”

That kind of construction would involve serious costs beyond Tory’s promised $8-billion SmartTrack price-tag. And it would have “significant impacts” on surrounding communities.

Reliable ridership estimates for SmartTrack are still being worked out and may present a challenge. It hasn’t been established, for example, that Union Station has room to even handle all the passengers Tory’s new service might deliver.

Also to be determined is how delivery of SmartTrack would affect another key project promised by Tory: a three-stop Scarborough subway extension. There’s considerable overlap between these routes but Tory has repeatedly maintained his commitment to both. That’s despite the fact that a light rail line would be a cheaper option than the planned new subway, while also putting public transit within walking distance of thousands more people. In fact, it would be irresponsible to proceed with the underground Scarborough line.

Finally, to cover the city’s share of SmartTrack’s construction costs Tory proposes to employ a questionable budget device called tax increment financing. This involves borrowing against higher land values and increased tax revenues that would result with the eventual arrival of SmartTrack. If it works as promised, this would generate so much money that Toronto’s existing property tax payers wouldn’t have to chip in anything at all. It’s the proverbial free ride.

Unfortunately, it’s not at all certain that projected revenue will actually materialize, leaving ratepayers potentially on the hook for huge costs.

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On the bright side, Tory’s plan has cleared a major hurdle with Ottawa already pledging to deliver on its more than $2 billion share of SmartTrack’s costs. That’s a significant step forward. But as earlier administrations at Toronto city hall can testify, much time can pass between a senior government’s promise of funding and the appearance of a cheque. Even when it arrives, the cheque is sometimes smaller than expected.

In short, a great deal of uncertainly needs to be settled — and in relatively quick order — to ensure SmartTrack’s safe arrival. Commuters should pay close attention. If their promised ride is destined to crash, it will very likely go off the rails this coming year.

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