The future looks bleak

Kenya has been losing 100 lions a year for the past seven years, leaving the country with just 2000 of its famous big cats, says the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) – which concludes the country could have no wild lions at all in 20 years. Conservationists have blamed habitat destruction, disease and conflict with humans for the population collapse.

But Laurence Frank, a wildlife biologist at cat conservation group Panthera, thinks the KWS estimate is optimistic. “Lions are disappearing so fast from Kenya, as well as the rest of Africa, that I think they will disappear [from Kenya] in less than 10 years if action is not taken very quickly,” says Frank, who runs several lion conservation projects in the country.

The IUCN suggests that large lion populations of 50 to 100 prides are necessary to conserve genetic diversity and avoid inbreeding.


Leo horror scope

Frank says that the decline of the big cats is due to the inexorable growth in human population and consequent conflict with people over livestock, rather than disease.

“Vast areas of Kenyan rangelands that held lions 20 years ago are now devoid of nearly all wildlife,” Frank says. “Predators have been poisoned and speared, herbivores have been snared for meat, and the rangelands themselves have been destroyed by massive overgrazing by domestic stock.”

According to Nicholas Oguge, who works for environmental charity Earthwatch Institute in northern Kenya, people lace cattle corpses with insecticide in order to poison entire prides. This ends up killing hyenas and birds of prey too.

“In Kenya, the biggest threat to lion conservation lies outside protected areas,” says Oguge. “This is because of increasing cases of poisoning by communities due to livestock loss through carnivore depredation. Typically, the communities use the insecticide Furadan by applying it on livestock carcasses.”

Bribes and trophies

Those who kill lions illegally are rarely punished, says Frank. Killing tends to occur far from the influence of authorities and conservationists. In the rare cases of arrest for lion killing, Frank says that the accused may secure their release by the payment of small bribes.

Even the animal-welfare groups that seek to protect lions from trophy hunters may be unintentionally placing them at risk. Sport hunting is banned in Kenya, which has allowed lions to fare better there than in most other parts of Africa, but the prohibition could also contribute to their eventual demise.

“Under current policy, there is no way for rural people to benefit from wildlife,” says Frank. “They get essentially no income from tourism, and the only other potential source of wildlife income – carefully regulated, high-paying trophy hunting – is prevented by the financial influence of American and British animal-rights lobbies.”

Research by the Field Museum of Natural History in Chicago and KWS suggests that on average each lion eats livestock worth around $270 a year. “On the other hand, given the size of Kenya’s tourist industry and the central importance of lions to tourist satisfaction, each of Kenya’s 2000 surviving lions may be worth upwards of $17,000 per year in tourist revenues,” says Bruce Patterson, curator of mammals at the museum.

The fact that Kenya is suffering a devastating drought isn’t helping matters, says Zeke Davidson of the University of Oxford. “Kenya is experiencing a very severe drought at the moment and this is driving ever-increasing numbers of pastoralist communities into wildlife areas in search of grazing and water supplies for their herds of livestock,” he says.

“Large herds of unattended cattle have been reported forming in northern Kenya, moving toward Ethiopia,” Davidson adds. He says they have been abandoned by their owners, who have gone in search of refuge from the drought further south.

Across the continent, the future looks bleak for lions. “Only drastic action on many fronts – policy change, effective law enforcement, giving rural people an economic stake in their natural heritage, and a great deal of investment – will prevent the loss of wildlife in Africa,” concludes Frank.

When this article was first published, it incorrectly described the Field Museum as being part of the University of Chicago.