Draft season is upon us, and for those entering their drafts soon, it’s a perfect time to start diving into some more fantasy. As a continuation of the ongoing Draft Prep series, we’re going to take a look at a guy that I believe all teams should be targeting this year: Danny Woodhead.

Danny Woodhead is a veteran NFL running back, a Nebraska native that carved out a role for himself on the Chargers and now has been traded to the Baltimore Ravens. In my opinion, he’s a top 3 sleeper in fantasy football. I understand that’s a big claim to make, so let’s dive in.

First, let’s see where this man is being drafted. His ADP is smack-dab in the middle of the eighth round, as the 31st RB off the board according to FantasyPros. That’s a crazy low valuation, because at that level, he’s an RB3/FLEX option. Now let’s talk about why Danny Woodhead as an RB3 or FLEX is an absolute steal.

First off, let’s look at the role Woodhead plays for the Ravens. He was signed to a three-year, 8.8 million dollar contract in order to play the role he always has: a veteran pass-catching threat out of the backfield. He’s the check-down, the safety net, the reliable option. In PPR leagues, the guy is a monster because of how many targets he gets. But just because someone was paid for a role doesn’t mean they necessarily will do it. In the case of Danny Woodhead, all signs point to him continuing the role, if not doing even more. Pass catching fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who caught 37 receptions last season, is gone. In addition, highly touted running back Kenneth Dixon has been sidelined for the season in order to repair his meniscus. That leaves Terrance West as the only real competition that Woodhead has at the entire running back position. Woodhead has been able to thrive in fantasy in situations where a legit back has taken away the majority of carries in an offense. But now, the Ravens have lost both their receiving threat and a viable running back, meaning that worst-case scenarion, Woodhead will hold the lion’s share of targets in a pass-heavy Baltimore offense that puts a great deal of said passes into the backfield. Baltimore targeted running backs 156 times last season, and those passes have few hands to go to outside of Woodhead. The losses of Dixon and Juszczyk, along with Dennis Pitta and Kamar Aiken have left the entire Baltimore offense without a significant amount of their established targets, and it’s safe to assume that a solid amount of these targets will go to their most proven receiver out of the backfield, Danny Woodhead. In addition, the loss of Dixon doesn’t just mean more receptions, it could potentially mean more carries. Unless Terrance West is able to magically transform into a every-down back, or third-string back Javorius Allen is able to do something similar, Woodhead will get more usage in the rushing attack, and that includes red zone carries. As a whole, the situation seems undeniably promising, but let’s talk about the reasons why people are hesitant.

Woodhead is in a solid place with a solid role, so why are people frowning on drafting him? First of course is the fact that he isn’t a big-name back. He is far from a sexy pick. And in most leagues, that kind of thinking is what loses fantasy seasons. The difference between winning fantasy and losing is often times found in the ability to see through biases, and the bias against lesser-known players like Danny Woodhead is one of those biases. Second is the loss of Joe Flacco, who could be gone anywhere from 3 to 6 weeks. It’s easy to rush to conclusions and assume that a lesser QB would diminish Woodhead’s value as a pass catcher, but I disagree. Backup QB’s, in this case Ryan Mallet, aren’t going to stretch the field. Pass attempts will fall, but the passes thrown will be short ones, and short passes are going to be overwhelmingly thrown to Danny Woodhead. The final knock against Woodhead is injury history, and this is compounded by age. In fact, he was just reported to have a hamstring injury that might keep him out of the preseason. This is the real knock against Woodhead, and it’s a legitimate concern. He’s had a torn ACL, broken fibula, and other minor injuries, and at 32, it could be said it may happen again. But in my opinion, the reward far outweighs the risk, especially if you consider where you are drafting him. Your other options around Woodhead’s ADP are Paul Perkins, Derrick Henry, and Eddie Lacy. All have significant negatives on their draft stock, from being essential handcuffs like Henry is, to weight issues and a competitive backfield like Lacy has. Fantasy is won by taking calculated risk, and at this stage in a draft, you aren’t banking on the whims of a coach or role in an offense. Woodhead’s role is locked in, and if healthy, he could be a RB1 in PPR formats. Your only real concern is health, and at this stage in a draft, every RB has concerns. You also don’t have to rely on Woodhead to be an RB1 or RB2. He’s your RB3. Woodhead’s health is an issue, but he hasn’t proven to be an incredibly fragile back, and the reality of NFL football is that anyone could get injured at any moment. If anything, the injury may make Woodhead fall farther in drafts, making him even more difficult guy to pass up if he falls to the ninth or tenth rounds, also decreasing the risk you have to take with him.

In conclusion, Woodhead is a guy with undeniable potential this season. His role on the team is cemented, and that role is only boosted by injuries and the nature of the pass-heavy offense itself. Woodhead isn’t a player without concerns, health chief among them. But late in drafts, risks must be taken if you want to win. And Woodhead is certainly a risk worth taking.