Good evening, I’m Erin Durkin, and this is the Guardian’s new-look politics minute. In the run-up to the midterm elections, we’ll bring you the latest from Washington and beyond every Monday, Wednesday and Friday evening. If you’re not already receiving this rundown by email, sign up.

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Opposition to Kavanaugh increases

Opposition among American voters to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh has increased since his testimony before the Senate on sexual assault allegations. New Reuters/Ipsos polling data released on Wednesday found 41% of respondents opposed Kavanaugh and 33% supported him. The rest were mostly undecided. The share opposing him grew by four percentage points compared to the situation before the hearing.

Three key Republicans condemn Trump for mocking Christine Blasey Ford Read more

Does that matter? The public doesn’t get a vote, but the handful of centrist Republicans and Democrats who will decide the nominee’s fate may be attuned to public opinion. In fact, their jobs may depend on it.

Bloomberg gives millions to Senate Democrats

Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is giving $20m to Senate Majority Pac, the main Super Pac aiming to flip the Senate to Democratic control. That’s on top of the $80m that Bloomberg, a billionaire Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent, plans to spend to help Democrats win seats and take over control of the lower tier of Congress, the House of Representatives.

Who does it help? For Senate Democrats it’s a huge infusion of cash in the run-up to the election – the group had $29m on hand by the end of August, according to the Washington Post.

Follow the money. For Bloomberg himself, as he ponders a run for the White House, such generosity bolsters his bona fides in the Democratic party. He needs it. The former three-term mayor is a champion of gun control and combating climate change but he has never been a loyalist to any one party and was accused of pandering to developers in Manhattan at the expense of low-income New Yorkers.

O’Rourke apologizes for college newspaper theater review

Beto O’Rourke, now a candidate for the US Senate from Texas, was in 1991 a 19-year-old student at Columbia University in New York, where he penned a review for the Columbia Daily Spectator panning a Broadway musical featuring actresses “whose only qualifications”, he wrote, “seem to be their phenomenally large breasts and tight buttocks”.

Oops. O’Rourke has become a darling of the left, and this ugly incident damages that. His mea culpa to Politico read: “I am ashamed of what I wrote and I apologize. There is no excuse for making disrespectful and demeaning comments about women.”

Is this contest even competitive? Yes! O’Rourke is running against Ted Cruz, a well-known, ultra-conservative Republican incumbent, in a solidly Republican state. Yet it’s an unexpectedly close race. Polls show an average of a 4.5 point lead for Cruz, according to RealClearPolitics, which lists the race as a toss-up, and one poll found just a one point gap.

Poll of the day

Democratic candidates have a seven-point lead in a new generic ballot poll, with 49% of American voters saying they’ll back the Democratic candidate in their local House race, 42% supporting the Republican candidate.

Watch the national trend lines. Despite the lead, Democrats have lost ground in the Quinnipiac poll since last month, when they had a 14-point lead. “The numbers suggest the big blue wave may have lost some of its momentum as House races tighten,” said Tim Malloy, of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

But not too closely. Of course, actual voters will choose among the actual candidates on their local ballots, rather than generically choosing a party, which could produce markedly different results.

Ad of the day

California representative Duncan Hunter is out with a startling new ad tying his Democratic opponent to terrorism and implying that he’s part of an attempt by Muslims to “infiltrate” the government.

Is any of this true? Not really. Critics call the spot racist and Islamophobic. The Democrat, Ammar Campa-Najjar, is a Christian, born and raised in San Diego, and has received security clearances to work in the White House. His grandfather did have terrorist connections: he was part of the group that planned an attack on Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972. But he died 16 years before Campa-Najjar was born, and the candidate has repeatedly denounced his actions.