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Can these numbers really be right?

A study conducted at the Roswell Park Cancer Institute and published in the Journal of Adolescent Health looked at e-cig use among teens in Poland. The results go beyond surprising all the way to unbelievable. If nothing else, it all makes one wonder what the culture of smoking is there and whether the survey sample actually represents the teen community at large.

The study surveyed 1,970 students of age 15 to 19 across 21 schools. This followed a similar study in 2011 with 1,760 students across 17 schools.

According to the study, 61.1% of those surveyed have tried electronic cigarettes. This was up from 16.8% in 2011. Meanwhile, 29.9% of students surveyed were revealed to be current e-cig users (up from 5.5% in 2011). Not only that, but use of tobacco in the same period has jumped from 23.9% to 38% (again, according to this study). When all use of tobacco and electronic cigarettes is taken together, a whopping 72.4% of teens are users according to the researchers.

There is much to question about these numbers. Many other studies are showing that e-cigs generally lead to reduced use of traditional cigarettes and that they don’t appeal as much to teens as they do older individuals looking to quit smoking. This study seems tailor-made to counter these statements, but there’s a few things that might be wrong with it.

First, the sample is extraordinarily small. According to 2013 numbers, the youth population of 10 to 24 year olds in Poland is 6.7 million. So the population of 15-19 year olds can be guessed to be around 1.8 million. This means the study sample covers about one-tenth of a percent of the population it represents. There’s also well over 2,000 secondary schools (for ages 11-18) in Poland — meaning only about 1% of the schools were represented. While it is possible that the sample does represent the numbers for the whole country, it seems dubious to call these conclusive results.

Second, Poland has long been one of the worst places for smoking prevalence in the world and might be exactly the place to find unbalanced numbers for e-cig research. Roughly 46% of men there smoke and about 31% of women. From 1970 to 2000, the smoking rate only decreased by about 19% — compared to far more significant decreases elsewhere. In 1990 (for example), more than 5% of 35 to 69 year olds in the country died to smoking related complications. While those figures appear to be improving, Poland has never been a good place to see hope in the fight against smoking.

You can read more about the study here. Well known electronic cigarette opponent Stanton Glantz has already chimed in claiming that this further shows that e-cigs only exist to reinforce the nicotine addiction business model of tobacco companies.