As long as Rafael Benítez remains in charge an exciting future beckons but the increasing influence of an Ashley business ally and failures in the transfer market have sounded alarm bells for the St James’ Park fanbase

Guardian writers’ predicted position 13th (NB: this is not necessarily Louise Taylor’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)



Last season’s position 1st (Championship)

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker) 500-1

Back in June a Newcastle United fan bumped into Rafael Benítez in a branch of Sainsbury’s near the Spaniard’s Jesmond home. True to character, Benítez could not have been warmer, posing for selfies before discussing the merits of assorted local restaurants and sounding quietly optimistic about incoming transfers. At that point Newcastle’s manager seemed confident Tammy Abraham, the young Chelsea striker, would be joining his team on loan.

Shortly afterwards Abraham joined Swansea and “Rafa on the brink” stories appeared in Sunday newspapers. This was no coincidence. If it was an exaggeration to say Benítez was on the brink of quitting, he was not happy and most definitely on political manoeuvres.

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Despite some subsequent, generally modest, signings a man who did not take a summer holiday in order to work on recruitment is still not exactly overjoyed. Although, at a fans talk-in last week, he declared “100% commitment” to the job and is clearly desperate to make things work, it is not scaremongering to wonder how much longer he will be at St James’ Park.

If it may be overly pessimistic to fear the whole scenario is in danger of turning into a grisly replica of Kevin Keegan’s second managerial incarnation on Tyneside – which, almost a decade ago, ended with the former England coach walking out in despair at Mike Ashley’s stewardship of the club – there is a lingering sense of unease.

As long as Benítez remains in charge of Newcastle a potentially very exciting future beckons – but while Ashley remains the owner there will always be an element of fear about what may be lurking round the corner.

As Benítez is discovering, it is impossible to second guess the sports-retail tycoon. Back in the spring, when Newcastle sealed promotion as Championship champions, the former Liverpool, Chelsea and Real Madrid manager waited several days to receive a congratulatory message from an owner he had not spoken to since the previous summer.

Then, when the “well done” finally came through and they met face to face, Ashley instructed the club to issue a press release stating his much decorated, former Champions League-winning manager would be given “every last penny” to strengthen his team for top tier combat.

After Graham Carr, the once powerful chief scout stepped down, it appeared Benítez had won a major political battle to assume control over transfer dealings. The horizon looked rosy … and then nothing much happened.

The manager thought he had deals arranged for, among others, Abraham and Manchester City’s Willy Caballero (who ended up at Chelsea) but Newcastle’s negotiating team could not get them over the line.

Part of this is said to be down to the increasing influence of Justin Barnes – an abrasive lawyer and long-term Ashley business ally – who has become heavily involved in the club. Where Benítez has always had a decent relationship with Lee Charnley, the managing director, he now has the added complication of Barnes to factor into the equation.

Charnley, Barnes and Ashley have apparently been deeply unimpressed by this summer’s crazy, heavily inflated transfer market and the suspicion is Newcastle are waiting to do some key business – ie signing the high-calibre striker their manager so desperately craves – until late in August when they hope, perhaps optimistically, that prices will drop.

So far, Benítez has been allowed to spend a total of around £30m on Florian Lejeune, the former Eibar defender; Javier Manquillo, a former Atlético Madrid full-back who spent last season loan at Sunderland where he lost his place to Billy Jones; Jacob Murphy, a promising young winger recruited from Norwich; Christian Atsu, another winger who spent last season on loan at Newcastle from Chelsea; and Mike Merino, a Spain Under-21 midfielder who joins on loan from Borussia Dortmund with a view to a permanent move next summer.

Although the squad which won promotion is not without talent – step forward Jonjo Shelvey, Matt Ritchie, Dwight Gayle, Ciaran Clark and the promising Isaac Hayden – the current situation sees a world-class manager in charge of a group of players who, in a Premier League context look, collectively, a little bit ordinary.

That said, a squad suited to a counterattacking style may fare better at home against opposition attempting to take the game to them than against the numerous Championship sides who turned up at St James’ Park with packed defences.

But can the current Newcastle squad really compete at this level? How much of a difference can Benítez’s coaching, tactics and game management make? Only time will tell but much depends on whom they sign between now and the end of August.

Before Carr left his post he was telling clubs that Newcastle would spend big this summer and, initially, it was thought Benítez would be given, at the very least, £70m. That may still be the case but Ashley is notoriously prone to changing his mind – and is perhaps disappointed that no one has swept in to buy the club.

Newcastle are certainly primed for a sale. With Benítez in the manager’s chair, a 52,000-capacity stadium perfectly placed in an increasingly affluent city-centre location, fanatical supporters and real international reach, they have an awful lot going for them. But Ashley’s £400m asking price does seem more than a little steep.

Such vast untapped potential explains why Benítez let it be known he wanted the job when it became obvious Steve McClaren was about to be sacked, and then stuck around to help the team escape the Championship once, despite his best efforts, they were relegated. Freddy Shepherd, Newcastle’s then chairman, may have been exaggerating when he once said his was the world’s eighth most popular club – but not by anything like as much as some sceptics might think.

With Benítez’s wife and two teenage daughters based at the family home on the Wirral it also suits the workaholic, anglophile to remain in England, dividing his time between Tyneside and Merseyside.

Benítez is also something of a football romantic and remains enthused by the challenge of finally bringing a trophy to St James’ Park. He also enjoys being revered by a devoted fanbase in a city which, in many ways, reminds him of his beloved Liverpool. But everyone has their breaking point, Newcastle’s manager is always widely coveted and his currently employer definitely needs him more than he needs them.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Newcastle United’s manager, Rafael Benítez, has not enjoyed the best of summer breaks and the fear is that club politics and a lack of meaningful transfer business may turn his head once more. Photograph: Serena Taylor/Newcastle Utd via Getty Images

So why does the owner persist in rocking the boat? Perhaps Ashley is simply jealous of the bond between Benítez and the Tyneside public? Maybe the Sports Direct owner has not relished being, a times, backed into corners by one of football’s most astute political operators? Could it be a bit of both? Or is Newcastle’s owner simply destructive?

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No one is quite sure but the relationship between two men who, in very different ways, are control freaks was always going to be complicated.

Who knows where it might end – but surely even Ashley cannot mess up this golden opportunity? They say no one is indispensable but Newcastle fans rightly fear they would struggle to get another manager anywhere near as good as Benítez.

It is time for Newcastle’s owner to finally realise that you cannot transpose the Sports Direct business model to football – no matter how very peculiar the economy of that parallel universe currently seems. And for Ashley to appreciate that even Benítez cannot turn water into wine.

An awful lot hinges on a man renowned for relishing a high-stakes gamble being persuaded that speculating to accumulate in the transfer market before the end of August is imperative.