Will Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s quick wit triumph? Will Ant and Dec suffer a rare loss? And is Grayson Perry an unstoppable force? Here are our predictions for Sunday night’s awards

Drama series

Bodyguard (BBC One)

Killing Eve (BBC Three)

Save Me (Sky Atlantic)

Informer (BBC One)

In a category high on quality and diversity (Killing Eve driven by female creativity, Save Me by BAME talent) this feels like a standoff between the big, populist storytelling of Jed Mercurio’s Bodyguard and the slick wit of Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s Killing Eve.

Should win: Bodyguard/Killing Eve jointly

Will win: Killing Eve

Bafta TV awards 2019: full list of nominations Read more

Miniseries

A Very English Scandal (BBC One)

Kiri (Channel 4)

Mrs Wilson (BBC One)

Patrick Melrose (Showtime/Sky Atlantic)

Another strong quartet demonstrates that, though traditional British broadcast drama is clearly at risk of being killed by streamers, it is going down fighting. The contenders take on tough subject matter: a bisexual homicidal politician; an abducted child; a bigamist spy; and a heroin-addicted victim of child sexual abuse. This feels like a fight between the biographical scandals of Jeremy Thorpe in A Very English Scandal and the autobiographical horrors of Edward St Aubyn in Patrick Melrose.

Should win: A Very English Scandal

Will win: A Very English Scandal

Leading actress

Jodie Comer – Killing Eve (BBC America/BBC Three)

Sandra Oh – Killing Eve (BBC America/BBC Three)

Keeley Hawes – Bodyguard (BBC One)

Ruth Wilson – Mrs Wilson (BBC One)

One of the hardest categories to call. Hawes has done more substantial work previously, Oh may have attracted support as US TV royalty and Wilson for telling a dark part of her own family story. But it is hard to look beyond Comer for a portrayal of a hitwoman that spanned menace, comedy and multiple adopted accents – none of them her own.

Should win: Jodie Comer

Will win: Jodie Comer

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Ruth Wilson in Mrs Wilson. Photograph: Peter Marley/BBC/©WP Films Ltd.

Leading actor

Hugh Grant – A Very English Scandal (BBC One)

Chance Perdomo – Killed By My Debt (BBC Three)

Lucian Msamati – Kiri (Channel 4)

Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose (Showtime/Sky Atlantic)

In another year, the subtle work of Msamati and Perdomo might have been prize-winning, but they come up against two bona fide movie stars. Grant’s double coup of being both far removed from his romcom screen persona but also remarkably like the real Thorpe might give him the edge.

Should win: Hugh Grant/Benedict Cumberbatch jointly

Will win: Hugh Grant

Supporting actor

Alex Jennings – Unforgotten (ITV)

Ben Whishaw – A Very English Scandal (BBC One)

Kim Bodnia – Killing Eve (BBC One)

Stephen Graham – Save Me (Sky Atlantic)

Jennings should have got the nod for his splendid turn as Thorpe’s parliamentary colleague, Peter Bessell, in A Very English Scandal instead of his unrepentant paedophile in Unforgotten. But though the super-talented 61-year-old is overdue a Bafta, I suspect Whishaw – in the more sympathetic role of Thorpe’s lover and victim, Norman Scott – is the frontrunner.

Should win: Alex Jennings

Will win: Ben Whishaw

Supporting actress

Billie Piper – Collateral (BBC Two)

Fiona Shaw – Killing Eve (BBC One)

Keeley Hawes – Mrs Wilson (BBC One)

Monica Dolan – A Very English Scandal (BBC One)

Despite some formidable opposition, a general industry tide of goodwill towards Killing Eve’s Shaw seems inevitable here.

Should win: Fiona Shaw

Will win: Fiona Shaw

Female performance in a comedy programme

Daisy May Cooper – This Country (BBC Three)

Jessica Hynes – There She Goes (BBC Four)

Julia Davis – Sally4Ever (Sky Atlantic/HBO)

Lesley Manville – Mum (BBC Two)

Cooper won this category last year, while Manville has been nominated for five Baftas (TV and film) and never won. My hunch is that Manville will take home her first statuette as the romantically timid widow in Mum.

Should win: Julia Davis

Will win: Lesley Manville

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Julia Davis in Sally4Ever. Photograph: Mark Johnson/Sky UK Limited

Male performance in a comedy programme

Alex Macqueen – Sally4Ever (Sky Atlantic/HBO)

Jamie Demetriou – Stath Lets Flats (Channel 4)

Peter Mullan – Mum (BBC Two)

Steve Pemberton – Inside No 9 (BBC Two)

Mum also offers an opportunity for an admired long-timer, Mullan, to receive belated recognition. But these categories have a history of honouring young writer-performers (Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Daisy May Cooper, Michaela Coel), and Demetriou deserves to follow them.

Should win: Jamie Demetriou

Will win: Peter Mullan

International

54 Hours: The Gladbeck Hostage Crisis (ARD/BBC Four)

The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu/Channel 4)

Reporting Trump’s First Year: The Fourth Estate (Showtime/BBC Two)

Succession (HBO/Sky Atlantic)

A contentious category. Killing Eve was an international production but admitted to the main categories, which raises troubling questions of eligibility as co-productions are increasingly the norm. This shortlist offers two V-signs to the Trump White House in a documentary about the president’s clash with the media, and season two of the Margaret Atwood adaptation set in an American misogynist dystopia. The German true-crime drama was solid and powerful. But Jesse Armstrong’s Succession, a provocative comedy about a Murdoch-like media dynasty, is the outstanding candidate.

Should win: Succession

Will win: Succession

Entertainment performance

Anthony McPartlin, Declan Donnelly – Ant & Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway (ITV)

David Mitchell – Would I Lie To You? (BBC One)

Lee Mack – Would I Lie To You? (BBC One)

Rachel Parris – The Mash Report (BBC Two)

Entertainment programme

Ant & Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway (ITV)

Britain’s Got Talent (ITV)

Michael McIntyre’s Big Show (BBC One)

Strictly Come Dancing (BBC One)

This is a big test of the sentimentality of the TV industry. Only a juror of unusual incuriosity would be unaware that Declan Donnelly presented the final two parts of this series alone after Ant McPartlin’s arrest for a drink-driving offence to which he later pleaded guilty. Everyone deserves a second chance, but honouring Ant may feel too soon for some. A possible compromise would be to give them the show award rather than the individual prize.

Should win: Rachel Parris/Michael McIntyre’s Big Show

Will Win: Lee Mack/Ant & Dec’s Saturday Night Takeway

Specialist factual

Bros: After the Screaming Stops (BBC Four)

Grayson Perry: Rites of Passage (Channel 4)

Suffragettes With Lucy Worsley (BBC One)

Superkids: Breaking Away from Care (Channel 4)

Winner of this section in 2013 and 15, and shortlisted in 2016 and 17, Perry is the Tiger Roll of arts broadcasting. He looks hard to beat again here.

Should win: Grayson Perry: Rites of Passage

Will win: Grayson Perry: Rites of Passage

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Bros: After The Screaming Stops. Photograph: PR

Reality and constructed factual

Dragons’ Den (BBC Two)

I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! ( ITV)

Old People’s Home for 4 Year Olds (Channel 4)

The Real Full Monty: Ladies’ Night (ITV)

There was also an Ant-sized spectre over these deliberations, as the nominated series of I’m a Celebrity is the one in which McPartlin was replaced by the excellent Holly Willoughby. It may feel odd for the jury to pick an emergency revamp. Instead, this looks like a fight between two heartwarmers: young-old cooperation and breast cancer survivors.

Should win: The Real Full Monty: Ladies Night

Will win: The Real Full Monty: Ladies Night

Current affairs

Football’s Wall of Silence (Al Jazeera English)

Iran Unveiled: Taking on the Ayatollahs – Exposure (ITV)

Massacre at Ballymurphy (Channel 4)

Myanmar’s Killing Fields (Channel 4)

Probably the toughest category to judge sees a power shift this year, with BBC One’s Panorama, winner in 2017 and 18, not even shortlisted. It would surely be cruel for Channel 4 not to take home a trophy for either its South East Asian or Northern Irish true-crime investigations.

Should win: Massacre at Ballymurphy

Will win: Massacre at Ballymurphy

Scripted comedy

Derry Girls (Channel 4)

Mum (BBC Two)

Sally4Ever (Sky Atlantic/HBO)

Stath Lets Flats (Channel 4)

Channel 4’s investment in Northern Irish subject-matter proved canny, with the fates of Theresa May’s government and of Brexit both lying in Belfast. Even the bitterly divided Northern Irish Assembly and House of Commons could surely find a majority for Lisa McGee’s bold sitcom, presenting sectarianism from a female adolescent perspective.

Should win: Derry Girls

Will win: Derry Girls

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Dery Girls. Photograph: Peter Marley/Channel 4

Comedy entertainment programme

The Big Narstie Show (Channel 4)

The Last Leg (Channel 4)

A League of Their Own (Sky One)

Would I Lie to You? (BBC One)

Three veterans recur, which should help the newcomer, The Big Narstie Show, which brings impressively starry guests and a fresh tone to the talk format.

Should win: The Big Narstie Show

Will win: The Big Narstie Show

Factual series

24 Hours in A&E (Channel 4)

Life and Death Row: The Mass Execution (BBC Three)

Louis Theroux’s Altered States (BBC Two)

Prison (Channel 4)

Theroux’s status as a Bafta perennial could penalise him with jurors favouring originality, but this series, while continuing his signature use of a light touch to illuminate dark corners of life, showed an impressive ability to adapt his approach.

Should win: Louis Theroux’s Altered States

Will win: Louis Theroux’s Altered States

Features

Gordon, Gino and Fred’s Road Trip (ITV)

The Great British Bake Off (Channel 4)

Mortimer & Whitehouse: Gone Fishing (BBC Two)

Who Do You Think You Are? (BBC One)

A category bursting with lovable showbiz eccentrics, plus Gordon Ramsay. The combination of angling and anecdotal paddling by two senior comedians feels the biggest catch.

Should win: Mortimer & Whitehouse: Gone Fishing

Will win: Mortimer & Whitehouse: Gone Fishing

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Rahul Mandal of The Great British Bake Off. Photograph: Love Productions/CHANNEL 4

Live event

Open Heart Surgery: Live (Channel 5)

Royal British Legion Festival of Remembrance (BBC One)

The Royal Wedding: Prince Harry and Meghan Markle (BBC One)

Stand Up to Cancer (Channel 4)

This jury will have struggled to forget monarchist or Republican sympathies, or family experience of cardiology, oncology and military service. So it is anyone’s guess.

Should win: Stand Up to Cancer

Will win: Open Heart Surgery: Live

News coverage

Bullying and Harassment in the House of Commons – Newsnight (BBC Two)

Cambridge Analytica Uncovered (Channel 4)

Good Morning Britain: On a Knife Edge (ITV)

Good Morning Britain: Thomas Markle Exclusive (ITV)

A key issue here will have been where voters stood on the scale of hatred of Piers Morgan, given that segments from his ITV breakfast show form half the field. If the chat with Meghan’s dad wins, the cutaway to the face of Bafta president Prince William will be the shot of the night. But the influential investigation of the political use of personal data looks the refuge of choice for Morgan-phobics.

Should win: Cambridge Analytica Uncovered

Will win: Cambridge Analytica Uncovered

Single documentary

Driven: The Billy Monger Story (BBC Three)

Gun No 6 (BBC Two)

My Dad, the Peace Deal and Me (BBC One)

School for Stammers (ITV)

Another emotive quartet of stories will surely be swung by the much-discussed BBC Two film following the murderous journey of a single firearm through the criminal underworld.

Should win: Gun No 6

Will win: Gun No 6

Single drama

Bandersnatch – Black Mirror (Netflix)

Care (BBC One)

Killed By My Debt (BBC Three)

Through the Gates – On the Edge (Channel 4)

Jimmy McGovern, who must have built an extension to hold all his Baftas, was on characteristically passionate campaigning form with the geriatric medical play, Care. But only anti-Netflix sentiment could count against Charlie Booker’s revolutionary multi-choice episode of his fine dystopian franchise.

Should win: Bandersnatch – Black Mirror

Will win: Bandersnatch – Black Mirror

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Black Mirror: Bandersnatch Photograph: Netflix / Black Mirror

Soap and continuing drama

Casualty (BBC One)

Coronation Street (ITV)

EastEnders (BBC One)

Hollyoaks (Channel 4)

The winners in 2015-16-18 compete again, with only the controversial omission of Emmerdale letting in Hollyoaks this time. This is the eighth time the Channel 4 youth-soap has been nominated without ever winning, so it feels time, perhaps helped by strong mental health storylines in 2018, although Coronation Street impressively explored the same agenda.

Should win: Hollyoaks

Will win: Coronation Street

Sport

2018 Six Nations: Scotland v England (BBC One)

2018 World Cup: England v Sweden (BBC One)

England’s Test Cricket: Cook’s Farewell (Sky Sports Cricket)

Winter Olympics (BBC Two)

Inherent resentment among Bafta members about the BBC’s domination of the awards – especially in this category – may help a younger provider that no longer has the disadvantage of being owned by the controversial Rupert Murdoch.

Should win: England’s Test Cricket: Cook’s Farewell

Will win: England’s Test Cricket: Cook’s Farewell

Virgin Media Must-See Moment nominees

Bodyguard – the assassination of Julia Montague (BBC)

Coronation Street – Gail’s monologue on the suicide of Aidan Connor (ITV)

Doctor Who – The Doctor meets Rosa Parks (BBC)

Killing Eve – Eve stabs Villanelle (BBC)

Peter Kay’s Car Share – the finale (BBC)

Queer Eye – Tom’s transformation (Netflix)

This is the only prize voted for by the public, so who knows? But Bodyguard had the most viewers available to vote and was 2018’s most shocking fictional plot-twist, while Peter Kay’s last Car Share and Gail’s monologue had the biggest emotional heft.

Should win: Bodyguard

Will win: Peter Kay’s Car Share



