There is absolutely no doubt that the Denver Broncos are the best team in the NFL right now. Is there a team that could stop them?

Well, I'm back. I know some of you actually did miss me in my absence as I got messages from you. I appreciate knowing I actually have fans.

The two-week gap in these rankings were due to my moving across three states. I got a job offer in Denver and decided to take it. So my wife, daughter, and I packed up and headed from Southern California to Denver. Don't worry, I'm not becoming a Broncos fan. I lived in Denver once before (during the vaunted Tebow years) and I resisted the urge then. I've invested too much time, energy, and tears into the Chargers to ever abandon them.

Moving on to the rankings, some interesting things have happened in the last three weeks. There's been quite a bit of movement and some teams that everyone was sure about are proving people wrong.

Notable Quotes

Phillip Rivers [sic] continues his MVP-caliber season, but injuries to the secondary have proven difficult to overcome in the last two weeks. The health of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett will be key going forward. - Fox Sports

Fan reaction to the game Thursday - Reddit

Not the best Thursday Night Football showing for the Chargers, who fall somewhat back to the pack with a 5-3 record, though losing to the best team in the league on its home field isn't the worst thing ever. At the same time, this marks three unimpressive performances in a row for coordinator John Pagano's defense: Derek Carr tossing four touchdown passes, the Chiefs holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes, and then Peyton Manning just carving up the secondary. - NFL.com

Division Averages

Division Week 6 Average Week 9 Average Difference NFC West 11.5227 12.8864 -1.3637 AFC West 13.1705 13.0568 0.1137 AFC North 13.6136 13.9432 -0.3296 NFC East 14.8977 14.6477 0.25 AFC East 19.2955 16.4091 2.8864 NFC North 16.6250 16.7841 -0.1591 AFC South 21.3295 20.6477 0.6818 NFC South 21.5455 23.6250 -2.0795

At this rate, it's only a matter of time before the AFC West overtakes the NFC West. And the NFC South? Woof.

Stock Rising

Team Week 6 Average Week 9 Average Difference NE 11.636 4.545 7.091 KC 16.273 10.136 6.137 MIA 20.000 15.591 4.409 ARI 10.091 5.864 4.227 DET 13.091 9.591 3.500

The Patriots were all but written off a few weeks ago. Now they're surging back up the ranks. The Chiefs started the season off slow, but now they're hitting their stride.

Stock Falling

Team Week 6 Average Week 9 Average Difference NYG 13.545 20.455 -6.910 SDG 2.818 9.727 -6.909 CIN 5.545 12.227 -6.682 SEA 1.818 7.909 -6.091 ATL 21.046 25.909 -4.863

The Giants beat out the Chargers by the slimmest of margins. No, seriously, the Giants dropped literally by just 0.001 more spots than the Chargers on average. Thankfully it's just enough for Eli's group to take the "top" spot away from San Diego.

It is interesting to see that 4 of the 5 teams on this list all dropped by at least 6 spots. Only 2 teams rose more than 6 spots in the same time frame.

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 1.273 Cardinals 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.091 6.273 Patriots 3 4 3 3 2 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.182 8.091 Cowboys 4 5 4 5 6 3 5 5 5 4 4 4.546 3.545 Eagles 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 7 6 6 5 4.818 1.000 Lions 6 9 6 10 5 6 9 4 4 8 6 6.636 7.455 Colts 9 8 9 6 10 9 8 6 15 5 7 8.364 -1.909 Chargers 8 6 11 12 11 7 7 11 9 7 8 8.818 -6.272 Packers 7 15 7 11 7 8 10 8 7 11 9 9.091 -0.818 Seahawks 10 7 8 9 9 11 6 10 12 10 10 9.273 -8.000 Ravens 13 11 12 7 14 10 15 14 10 9 14 11.727 -0.363 49ers 11 14 13 8 13 13 11 9 13 13 11 11.727 -4.181 Bengals 12 16 10 13 12 12 14 12 8 12 12 12.091 -6.636 Chiefs 15 10 14 15 8 16 12 15 11 14 15 13.182 4.818 Steelers 14 17 16 14 16 15 13 13 14 15 13 14.546 2.363 Bills 16 13 18 16 15 14 16 16 16 16 16 15.636 2.364 Dolphins 18 12 17 17 17 19 17 20 18 17 17 17.182 4.818 Saints 17 18 22 18 18 18 20 18 20 21 18 18.909 1.727 Browns 19 21 21 21 19 17 18 21 17 20 20 19.455 2.454 Texans 21 20 19 19 20 21 19 19 19 19 19 19.546 -1.637 Panthers 20 22 20 20 21 20 23 17 23 18 21 20.455 -5.909 Giants 22 19 15 23 23 23 21 22 21 22 22 21.182 -6.727 Bears 23 24 23 22 24 22 24 23 24 23 24 23.273 -2.637 Redskins 24 25 25 24 25 24 22 24 22 24 23 23.818 3.546 Vikings 25 23 24 26 22 25 25 25 25 26 25 24.636 0.182 Rams 27 26 26 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 26 26.182 0.727 Falcons 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 27 26.636 -4.090 Titans 28 28 28 28 29 28 28 28 30 28 28 28.273 1.363 Jets 30 29 31 29 31 30 29 30 28 29 30 29.636 -1.181 Buccaneers 29 30 29 30 28 31 30 31 29 30 31 29.818 -2.363 Jaguars 31 31 30 31 30 29 31 29 31 31 29 30.273 1.000 Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 -0.273

Observations:

The Broncos are the unanimous pick for best team in the league.

The Cardinals are a near unanimous pick for the second-best team.

Raiders unanimous pick for worst team in the league.

It is nice to see the Chargers still in the top 10. I know it doesn't feel like it right now, but this team is still pretty good.

Oh CBS, never change.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.445 Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 -0.445 Cardinals 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.288 -2.644 Rams 27 26 26 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 26 0.575 -0.508 Titans 28 28 28 28 29 28 28 28 30 28 28 0.617 0.136 Falcons 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 27 0.643 -0.916 Patriots 3 4 3 3 2 5 3 3 3 3 3 0.716 -1.195 Bears 23 24 23 22 24 22 24 23 24 23 24 0.750 -1.394 Cowboys 4 5 4 5 6 3 5 5 5 4 4 0.782 -1.193 Texans 21 20 19 19 20 21 19 19 19 19 19 0.782 -0.597 Jaguars 31 31 30 31 30 29 31 29 31 31 29 0.862 0.417 Jets 30 29 31 29 31 30 29 30 28 29 30 0.881 -0.556 Buccaneers 29 30 29 30 28 31 30 31 29 30 31 0.936 -0.297 Redskins 24 25 25 24 25 24 22 24 22 24 23 1.029 -0.039 Eagles 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 7 6 6 5 1.113 -0.472 Vikings 25 23 24 26 22 25 25 25 25 26 25 1.150 -0.116 Bills 16 13 18 16 15 14 16 16 16 16 16 1.226 -0.819 Steelers 14 17 16 14 16 15 13 13 14 15 13 1.305 -1.899 Browns 19 21 21 21 19 17 18 21 17 20 20 1.499 -0.231 Saints 17 18 22 18 18 18 20 18 20 21 18 1.505 -0.415 Seahawks 10 7 8 9 9 11 6 10 12 10 10 1.656 1.211 Panthers 20 22 20 20 21 20 23 17 23 18 21 1.777 0.218 49ers 11 14 13 8 13 13 11 9 13 13 11 1.814 0.143 Dolphins 18 12 17 17 17 19 17 20 18 17 17 1.898 -0.696 Bengals 12 16 10 13 12 12 14 12 8 12 12 1.929 0.492 Lions 6 9 6 10 5 6 9 4 4 8 6 1.967 0.403 Chargers 8 6 11 12 11 7 7 11 9 7 8 1.992 1.004 Giants 22 19 15 23 23 23 21 22 21 22 22 2.249 0.144 Packers 7 15 7 11 7 8 10 8 7 11 9 2.391 0.908 Ravens 13 11 12 7 14 10 15 14 10 9 14 2.416 1.535 Chiefs 15 10 14 15 8 16 12 15 11 14 15 2.443 0.227 Colts 9 8 9 6 10 9 8 6 15 5 7 2.568 0.420

Observations:

Like I said, unanimous consensus of the Broncos being the best, and Raiders being the worst. AFC West, represent!

Chargers fairly consistent in their ranking, being under 2 standard deviations. 3 weeks ago, 10 teams had a higher deviation. There's more consistency across the board coming in.

CBS is an outlier on the Giants. SBNation is an outlier on the Colts. Are they crazy, or rightfully going against the crowd? Hopefully the objective stats can help shed light.

Objective Average

Objective FO TE TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 Average Change in Value Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 1.546 Colts 7 3 6 5 6 5 3 5 8 7 9 5.818 3.546 Patriots 12 15 3 3 7 6 6 3 4 4 2 5.909 6.091 Ravens 2 10 4 11 13 2 4 4 11 3 8 6.546 1.727 Seahawks 3 7 2 2 11 12 9 10 7 6 3 6.546 -4.182 Chiefs 4 6 10 6 21 4 2 2 3 8 12 7.091 7.455 Cardinals 18 25 11 8 2 9 7 17 2 2 5 9.636 2.182 Cowboys 11 8 15 15 5 3 10 12 10 10 7 9.636 1.728 Packers 5 4 7 9 17 7 13 6 14 13 14 9.909 -2.363 49ers 20 12 5 4 3 21 12 13 6 12 4 10.182 -2.909 Chargers 10 19 8 10 22 13 5 14 5 5 6 10.636 -7.545 Eagles 6 23 12 7 4 24 8 18 9 9 10 11.818 4.091 Bengals 14 5 13 14 9 16 17 11 12 14 11 12.364 -6.728 Lions 13 11 14 13 12 10 16 9 13 11 16 12.546 -0.455 Dolphins 9 2 18 16 25 15 11 8 16 16 18 14.000 4.000 Saints 15 14 9 12 16 11 20 19 19 20 13 15.273 3.363 Steelers 8 18 19 18 8 18 19 16 17 18 15 15.818 1.728 Bills 16 16 21 19 23 19 15 7 15 15 19 16.818 -0.909 Texans 21 22 16 17 10 8 14 20 18 17 23 16.909 1.727 Browns 17 13 23 23 15 14 21 15 22 21 25 19.000 2.818 Giants 22 24 17 20 14 22 18 21 20 19 20 19.727 -7.091 Redskins 23 9 25 24 19 20 22 22 24 23 27 21.636 1.910 Panthers 26 17 20 22 18 26 24 27 21 22 17 21.818 -2.545 Bears 24 21 24 21 27 17 23 26 23 24 21 22.818 -2.727 Falcons 19 30 22 25 29 23 25 24 28 26 26 25.182 -5.636 Vikings 30 27 26 26 24 25 26 23 25 25 22 25.364 0.091 Titans 25 20 28 28 20 30 27 25 27 28 28 26.000 -0.273 Rams 29 29 27 27 26 27 30 30 26 27 24 27.455 -0.819 Jets 28 28 29 29 30 31 28 28 29 29 29 28.909 -0.182 Jaguars 31 26 32 32 28 28 31 29 31 31 31 30.000 1.636 Raiders 27 31 31 31 32 29 29 32 32 32 32 30.727 -0.091 Buccaneers 32 32 30 30 31 32 32 31 30 30 30 30.909 -1.182

Observations:

Oh good, the Broncos are unanimous here too.

To answer our question from above, it seems SB Nation and CBS are crazy.

The Buccaneers edge out the Raiders as the worst team in league in the Objective list. Move over Jacksonville, there's a new team stinking things up in Florida!

BeatGraphs gets flack sometimes for being an outlier on these charts, it seems people want to see consistency and model agreement. BeatGraphs is just one data point, and it's used to basically measure a team's strength of schedule. There are enough other data points that keeps BG from completely messing up the charts.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TE TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 STD DEV Change in Value Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -1.559 Jets 28 28 29 29 30 31 28 28 29 29 29 0.900 -0.520 Buccaneers 32 32 30 30 31 32 32 31 30 30 30 0.900 -0.455 Raiders 27 31 31 31 32 29 29 32 32 32 32 1.601 0.830 Rams 29 29 27 27 26 27 30 30 26 27 24 1.777 -0.367 Colts 7 3 6 5 6 5 3 5 8 7 9 1.800 -2.318 Jaguars 31 26 32 32 28 28 31 29 31 31 31 1.859 0.978 Vikings 30 27 26 26 24 25 26 23 25 25 22 2.012 0.136 Lions 13 11 14 13 12 10 16 9 13 11 16 2.148 -1.167 Giants 22 24 17 20 14 22 18 21 20 19 20 2.597 -0.304 Bears 24 21 24 21 27 17 23 26 23 24 21 2.622 -0.982 Falcons 19 30 22 25 29 23 25 24 28 26 26 3.040 -1.579 Titans 25 20 28 28 20 30 27 25 27 28 28 3.133 -0.562 Bengals 14 5 13 14 9 16 17 11 12 14 11 3.199 0.932 Panthers 26 17 20 22 18 26 24 27 21 22 17 3.459 -2.542 Seahawks 3 7 2 2 11 12 9 10 7 6 3 3.500 1.780 Cowboys 11 8 15 15 5 3 10 12 10 10 7 3.575 0.237 Saints 15 14 9 12 16 11 20 19 19 20 13 3.670 -1.660 Steelers 8 18 19 18 8 18 19 16 17 18 15 3.857 -0.013 Ravens 2 10 4 11 13 2 4 4 11 3 8 3.917 0.869 Patriots 12 15 3 3 7 6 6 3 4 4 2 3.919 -1.424 Bills 16 16 21 19 23 19 15 7 15 15 19 4.019 -0.503 Browns 17 13 23 23 15 14 21 15 22 21 25 4.068 0.404 Packers 5 4 7 9 17 7 13 6 14 13 14 4.209 1.036 Redskins 23 9 25 24 19 20 22 22 24 23 27 4.518 -1.193 Texans 21 22 16 17 10 8 14 20 18 17 23 4.542 0.513 Chiefs 4 6 10 6 21 4 2 2 3 8 12 5.368 2.083 Chargers 10 19 8 10 22 13 5 14 5 5 6 5.564 4.400 Dolphins 9 2 18 16 25 15 11 8 16 16 18 5.878 0.979 49ers 20 12 5 4 3 21 12 13 6 12 4 6.058 2.102 Eagles 6 23 12 7 4 24 8 18 9 9 10 6.492 -0.229 Cardinals 18 25 11 8 2 9 7 17 2 2 5 7.189 -1.537

Observations:

Continuing my point from above about BeatGraphs, it's not like they never agree with the other models. For instance, the Broncos are the best on all models. And BG agrees with the rankings of the next 8 teams after the Broncos.

The Cardinals are all over the map here. Some sites have them at 2nd, others not as high. Football Outsiders dove into this deeper this week. Basically, the Cardinals have been terrible on first and second downs, and then phenomenal on third down. So good even, that FBO calls their success on third down "unsustainable."

Again, San Diego is a little less consistent than other teams.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Broncos 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.409 Patriots 3.182 5.909 4.545 7.091 Cardinals 2.091 9.636 5.864 4.227 Colts 8.364 5.818 7.091 0.818 Cowboys 4.546 9.636 7.091 2.636 Seahawks 9.273 6.546 7.909 -6.091 Eagles 4.818 11.818 8.318 2.546 Ravens 11.727 6.546 9.136 0.682 Packers 9.091 9.909 9.500 -1.591 Lions 6.636 12.546 9.591 3.500 Chargers 8.818 10.636 9.727 -6.909 Chiefs 13.182 7.091 10.136 6.137 49ers 11.727 10.182 10.955 -3.546 Bengals 12.091 12.364 12.227 -6.682 Steelers 14.546 15.818 15.182 2.045 Dolphins 17.182 14.000 15.591 4.409 Bills 15.636 16.818 16.227 0.728 Saints 18.909 15.273 17.091 2.545 Texans 19.546 16.909 18.227 0.046 Browns 19.455 19.000 19.227 2.637 Giants 21.182 19.727 20.455 -6.910 Panthers 20.455 21.818 21.136 -4.227 Redskins 23.818 21.636 22.727 2.728 Bears 23.273 22.818 23.045 -2.681 Vikings 24.636 25.364 25.000 0.136 Falcons 26.636 25.182 25.909 -4.863 Rams 26.182 27.455 26.818 -0.045 Titans 28.273 26.000 27.136 0.546 Jets 29.636 28.909 29.273 -0.682 Jaguars 30.273 30.000 30.136 1.319 Buccaneers 29.818 30.909 30.364 -1.773 Raiders 32.000 30.727 31.364 -0.182

Observations:

I think it's pretty obvious that there's a major gap between the Broncos and the rest of the league. Is there any team capable of stopping them the rest of the way?

Patriots move up past the Cardinals in the joint board.

Colts and Cowboys tied.

Pretty sharp delineation at the top 14 teams and the rest of the league.

Raiders beat out the Buccaneers overall to take over the bottom spot.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Broncos 1.000 1.000 0.000 -1.154 Jets 29.636 28.909 0.962 -0.473 Buccaneers 29.818 30.909 1.068 -0.655 Raiders 32.000 30.727 1.298 0.465 Jaguars 30.273 30.000 1.455 0.733 Rams 26.182 27.455 1.466 -0.238 Vikings 24.636 25.364 1.679 0.047 Bears 23.273 22.818 1.942 -1.036 Falcons 26.636 25.182 2.314 -1.446 Titans 28.273 26.000 2.528 -0.753 Giants 21.182 19.727 2.536 -0.156 Colts 8.364 5.818 2.557 -1.035 Bengals 12.091 12.364 2.645 0.745 Panthers 20.455 21.818 2.833 -2.148 Steelers 14.546 15.818 2.949 -0.618 Bills 15.636 16.818 3.029 -0.633 Seahawks 9.273 6.546 3.059 1.689 Browns 19.455 19.000 3.074 0.209 Patriots 3.182 5.909 3.129 -0.900 Saints 18.909 15.273 3.343 -0.786 Packers 9.091 9.909 3.448 0.945 Redskins 23.818 21.636 3.453 -1.077 Texans 19.546 16.909 3.515 0.482 Lions 6.636 12.546 3.601 0.823 Cowboys 4.546 9.636 3.630 0.436 Ravens 11.727 6.546 4.159 1.435 Chargers 8.818 10.636 4.277 3.164 49ers 11.727 10.182 4.538 1.498 Dolphins 17.182 14.000 4.648 0.248 Chiefs 13.182 7.091 5.164 1.872 Eagles 4.818 11.818 5.826 -1.195 Cardinals 2.091 9.636 6.334 -0.401

Observations:

Very impressive that every single one of the 22 rankings has the Broncos at the top. It's rare to have 100% consensus.

Much more consensus overall of the teams in the bottom third of the league than the top third.

Remember when the Saints were a force to be reckoned with?

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Cardinals 2.091 9.636 7.546 4.091 Eagles 4.818 11.818 7.000 -3.091 Lions 6.636 12.546 5.909 7.909 Cowboys 4.546 9.636 5.091 1.818 Patriots 3.182 5.909 2.727 2.000 Chargers 8.818 10.636 1.818 1.273 Panthers 20.455 21.818 1.364 -3.363 Rams 26.182 27.455 1.273 1.546 Steelers 14.546 15.818 1.273 0.637 Bills 15.636 16.818 1.182 3.273 Buccaneers 29.818 30.909 1.091 -1.182 Packers 9.091 9.909 0.818 1.545 Vikings 24.636 25.364 0.727 0.091 Bengals 12.091 12.364 0.273 0.091 Broncos 1.000 1.000 0.000 -0.273 Jaguars 30.273 30.000 -0.273 -0.637 Bears 23.273 22.818 -0.455 0.091 Browns 19.455 19.000 -0.455 -0.364 Jets 29.636 28.909 -0.727 -1.000 Raiders 32.000 30.727 -1.273 -0.182 Giants 21.182 19.727 -1.455 0.363 Falcons 26.636 25.182 -1.455 1.545 49ers 11.727 10.182 -1.546 -1.273 Redskins 23.818 21.636 -2.182 1.636 Titans 28.273 26.000 -2.273 1.636 Colts 8.364 5.818 -2.545 -5.454 Texans 19.546 16.909 -2.636 -3.363 Seahawks 9.273 6.546 -2.727 -3.818 Dolphins 17.182 14.000 -3.182 0.818 Saints 18.909 15.273 -3.636 -1.636 Ravens 11.727 6.546 -5.182 -2.091 Chiefs 13.182 7.091 -6.091 -2.636

Observations:

The Cardinals, Eagles, Lions and Cowboys are all significantly ranked higher than the stats indicate they should be. Is there any doubt that subjective rankers base most of their rankings just on W-L records?

6 of the 8 teams most "over-ranked" are in the NFC, including the 4 most over-ranked.

Chargers are "over-ranked" by under 2 spots, hardly enough to worry about.

6 of the 8 teams most "under-ranked" are in the AFC.

Seems pundits are sleeping on the Chiefs and Ravens.

Sources