Gameweek 13 proved to be a monster one for the Bookies’ Advantage squad as they put 81 points on the board, smashing the 46 point average for the round.

Double-digit returns from captain Sergio Aguero (24), Gylfi Sigurdsson and Gareth McAuley (10 each) were the main contributions, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Charlie Austin (both 9) also doing their part. With Gameweek 14 just around the corner, read on as we delve into our customary analysis of the odds compiled for this weekend’s fixtures…

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Tottenham 2.1 48% Middlesbrough 2.2 45% Stoke 2.31 43% West Brom 2.7 37% Liverpool 2.88 35% Man Utd 2.88 35% Arsenal 3 33% Leicester 3.1 32% Southampton 3.15 32% Man City 3.3 30% Crystal Palace 3.75 27% Watford 3.9 26% Sunderland 4 25% Everton 4.1 24% Hull 4.45 22% Chelsea 5.1 20% Burnley 5.6 18% West Ham 6 17% Bournemouth 6.5 15% Swansea 10 10%

The bookmakers rate Tottenham as the team most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend, affording them a 48% chance of doing so when they welcome Swansea to White Hart Lane. The Lillywhites have the joint-best home defence in the league this season (4 goals conceded) and have registered shutouts in 3 of 6 games in front of their own fans. Caution is urged here though, as the Swans have only blanked away from home once in 6 games this term, and scored 5 goals last time out against Crystal Palace. Nevertheless, with a goal and an assist to his name in 8 starts this campaign, Danny Rose’s attacking instincts see him take a place in our back line.

Middlesbrough (45%) rank second for Gameweek 14, with a favourable home game against Hull on Monday night the main reason why. Aitor Karanka’s men have only conceded twice in their last 3 outings at The Riverside as they begin to show some of their famous defensive resolve from last season, and with the Tigers having played 120 minutes on Tuesday courtesy of their League Cup commitments, chances are high that they could chalk up their third away blank in succession. In the absence of the injured George Friend, Ben Gibson, who has played every minute for Boro, scored once and grabbed 5 bonus points, makes our starting XI.

Tony Pulis’ former and current employers sit third and fourth respectively in the bookies’ defensive rankings. Stoke (43%) host Burnley, with Sean Dyche’s men currently the worst travelling attack in the division, scoring just 1 goal and blanking in 4 out of 5 games. The Potters have only conceded 3 goals in their last 6, so Lee Grant provides outstanding value between the sticks at just £4.0m, and should be safe from the threat of the returning Jack Butland for a little while longer, which sees him take his place in goal for our squad. West Brom (37%), meanwhile, welcome Watford to The Hawthorns as they look to register a second consecutive home clean sheet. With the Hornets blanking twice in their last 4 on the road, things look good for Gareth McAuley, who headed in his third goal of the season last weekend.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Sunderland’s budget friendly Jordan Pickford (£4.0m – 25%) as our backup keeper, with Watford’s Sebastian Prodl (£4.5m – 26%) and Swansea’s Jordi Amat (£4.0m – 10%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from West Ham (17% – home to Arsenal), Bournemouth (15% – home to Liverpool) and Swansea (10% – away to Tottenham) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Harry Kane 1.8 56% Sergio Aguero 2.18 46% Olivier Giroud 2.25 44% Daniel Sturridge 2.28 44% Son Heung-Min 2.3 43% Alexis Sanchez 2.32 43% Alvaro Negredo 2.43 41% Zlatan Ibrahimovic 2.6 38% Charlie Austin 2.6 38% Dele Alli 2.6 38% Divock Origi 2.6 38% Wilfried Bony 2.62 38% Sadio Mane 2.67 37% Roberto Firmino 2.75 36% Diego Costa 2.75 36% Jermain Defoe 2.75 36% Theo Walcott 2.8 36% Islam Slimani 2.8 36% Jamie Vardy 2.8 36% Salomon Rondon 2.88 35% Marko Arnautovic 2.88 35% Romelu Lukaku 2.9 34% Christian Eriksen 2.9 34% Christian Benteke 3 33% Jonathan Walters 3 33% Cristhian Stuani 3.2 31% Nacer Chadli 3.3 30% Marcus Rashford 3.35 30% Troy Deeney 3.5 29% Riyad Mahrez 3.5 29% Callum Wilson 3.5 29% Kevin de Bruyne 3.6 28% Eden Hazard 3.65 27% Nathan Redmond 3.75 27% Gaston Ramirez 3.9 26% Wayne Rooney 3.9 26% Joshua King 4 25% Yaya Toure 4.1 24% Raheem Sterling 4.1 24% Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 4.1 24% Andre Ayew 4.1 24% Sam Vokes 4.2 24% Dusan Tadic 4.33 23% James Milner 4.35 23% Mesut Ozil 4.4 23% Michail Antonio 4.5 22% Dimitri Payet 4.5 22% Yannick Bolasie 4.75 21% Adama Traore 4.8 21% Pedro 4.9 20% Matt Phillips 5 20% Juan Mata 5.1 20% Duncan Watmore 5.25 19% Ross Barkley 5.4 19% Gylfi Sigurdsson 5.5 18% Ilkay Gundogan 5.75 17% Andros Townsend 5.8 17% Borja Baston 6 17% Junior Stanislas 6 17% Gerard Deulofeu 6 17% Wilfried Zaha 6.1 16% Robert Snodgrass 6.3 16% Etienne Capoue 7 14% Roberto Pereyra 8 13% Ryan Mason 10 10%

Harry Kane, fresh from signing a new long term contract at Tottenham, usurps Sergio Aguero at the top of the bookies’ attacking rankings with a 56% chance of scoring this weekend at home against Swansea. The Englishman has 3 goals in his 3 Premier League starts since returning from injury, whilst Bob Bradley’s men have conceded 11 in their last 4 outings. As a result, we give Kane our captain’s armband for Gameweek 14.

Joining Kane up front in our starting XI are the aforementioned Sergio Aguero (46%) and his former Manchester City teammate Alvaro Negredo (41%). Following a brace against Burnley last weekend that took him joint-top of the Premier League goalscoring charts (10 – equal with Diego Costa), Aguero now faces the meanest defence in the division – Chelsea have conceded just 10 goals in 13 games. However, the Argentine superstar has proven time and time again that he is fixture proof and can score against any side. He also netted 4 times in 2 games against the Blues last season. Negredo, meanwhile, was another striker to hit a double last Saturday, against champions Leicester, his first goals since the opening weekend, and will be looking to get on the scoresheet again when Boro welcome a Hull City side, who posses the worst defence in the top flight (28 conceded in 13 games), to The Riverside on Monday night.

Some viable options up front the we have had to overlook include Olivier Giroud and Daniel Sturridge (both 44%), but both are injury doubts for the weekend and far from guaranteed a spot in their respective club’s starting XI’s.

In midfield, Tottenham’s plum home clash against Swansea sees Heung-min Son (43%) take a spot in our starting XI. Whilst he hasn’t scored in the league since Gameweek 6, 4 goals and 4 assists in 10 games has been a decent return for the South Korean, who will be hopeful of getting back amongst the goals on Saturday given the defensive woes of his Welsh opponents. Also rated as having a 43% chance of scoring is Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez, who travels across the capital for a London derby against West Ham in Saturday’s late kick off. 5 of the Chilean’s 8 league goals have come away from The Emirates this season, and following a double against Bournemouth last time out, he’ll be looking forward to facing Slaven Bilic’s defence, who are without a clean sheet in 6 games in all competitions.

We double up on Arsenal midfielders this weekend with Theo Walcott (36%) joining Alexis in our starting XI. The Englishman also netted in the 3-1 win over the Cherries last Sunday, taking his league tally to 6 for the season. The final spot in our starting XI goes to Marko Arnautovic (35%) ahead of a Bet365 Stadium encounter with Burnley. Austria’s (and Stoke’s) answer to Zlatan Ibrahimovic isn’t in the best of form, having only scored one league goal this campaign, back in Gameweek 5 against Crystal Palace, but the Clarets’ dire defence away from home, which has conceded 3 or more goals in 4 of their 5 road trips, certainly offers potential for investors. Last but not least, Etienne Capoue (14%) takes his customary first place on our subs bench, with his goal and subsequent 10-point haul in Gameweek 12 a welcome return to form for the ultra-value £4.5m midfielder.

The bookmakers also fancy the chances of Dele Alli (38%), but we have to forgo the services of the young England international as we have already maxed out our allocation of 3 players from Mauricio Pochettino’s side, whilst Liverpool duo Sadio Mane (37%) and Roberto Firmino (36%) both prove slightly too expensive to acquire.