For immediate release Wednesday, October 19, 2016 7 pages

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Governor Christie’s Approval Reaches a New Low

Majority Doubt Him in Bridgegate

Fairleigh Dickinson University, October 19, 2016 – Governor Christie’s job approval has fallen further in the eyes of the public, according to the most recent survey of registered voters in New Jersey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind. And, as the public closely follows the ongoing Bridgegate trial, a majority believe sufficient evidence has emerged to contradict Christie’s claim that he knew nothing about the George Washington Bridge lane closures before text messages were released publicly.

Barely a fifth (21%) of registered voters approve of the job the governor is doing, with almost three quarters (72%) saying they disapprove. These are the lowest approval and highest disapproval numbers PublicMind has registered for Governor Christie – ever. Disapproval is widespread. Even a majority of Republicans are giving the governor a negative evaluation (52%).

The governor is also upside down in his favorability rating. Sixty-five percent currently have an unfavorable view of him, with 29 percent holding a favorable opinion.

“Apparently we’ve not yet found the floor for the governor’s approval among voters in the state. The recent gas tax increase that the governor supported no doubt caused some in his party to turn against him, even though he sought to reduce taxes in other areas in order to offset the increase at the pump,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

Disapproval for Governor Christie mirrors that for evaluations concerning the health of the state. Again, PublicMind finds the lowest “right direction” and highest “wrong track” numbers on this question during the entirety of the Christie administration. Twenty percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 71 percent say it is headed down the wrong track.

“Concern about the state’s health is both broad and deep. Republicans and Democrats alike think things have taken a turn for the worse,” said Jenkins.

Adding to the state’s problems is the ongoing Bridgegate investigation and federal trial of former Christie administration officials. Seven-in-ten (70%) say they are following the trial closely, with a fifth (19%) following it very closely.

The trial has done little to shake the perception that Governor Christie knew about the lane closures before the public became aware of the now infamous “Time for some traffic problems” email from Christie aide Bridget Anne Kelly.

Thirty-seven percent believe it is highly unlikely that the governor did not know what his aides were doing either before or during the lane closure episode. Virtually the same percentage reported being dubious in 2014, shortly after the story broke.

Additionally, 52 percent believe there is sufficient proof that Governor Christie knew about and did nothing to prevent the lane closures from occurring or stop them from continuing. A third (36%) believe sufficient proof does not exist. The only group whose majority sentiment gives the benefit of the doubt to the governor are Republicans. Across the board, registered voters are more apt to believe the claims of the defendants and prosecutors in the trial than the governor.

“The Bridgegate trial and its fallout is clearly hurting the governor. With both sides arguing that the governor was aware of the political retaliation plan, voters are having a hard time coming up with reasons to believe his claims of innocence,” said Jenkins.

However, the same survey finds a glimmer of hope for Governor Christie. A clear majority (57%) reject the idea that Christie should leave office, either by stepping down or through removal by impeachment. Only 39 percent believe he should leave office. These numbers are reversed from when a similar question was asked earlier this year in May. Back then, 57 percent said that if it is proven that Christie knew about and did nothing to stop or prevent the lane closures from occurring, he should resign. A third (35%) rejected such an idea.

“Invoking the word ‘impeachment’ raises his early departure to a different level. Although removal by impeachment has been discussed recently in the press, it’s clear from these numbers that the public is not ready to go there, despite growing concerns about the veracity of the governor’s claims regarding his role in the lane closure affair,” said Jenkins.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone October 12-16, 2016 among a random sample of 848 registered voters in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.6 percentage points, including the design effect.

Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 477 interviews were conducted on landlines and 371 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Tables

And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove] PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Approve 21% 7 19 40 22 20 26 13 23 20 22 19 23 Disapprove 72% 90 68 52 71 73 67 81 67 75 71 75 68 Neither/ Neutral (vol) 5% 1 11 6 5 5 7 2 7 3 4 4 7 DK/Both (vol) 2% 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 1 3 Refused (vol) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Rotate right direction/wrong track] PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Right direction 20% 15 19 29 23 18 21 19 22 20 24 19 19 Wrong track 71% 79 72 61 69 73 70 73 68 73 67 75 70 DK (vol) 8% 5 9 10 6 9 8 8 9 7 9 6 9 Refused (vol) 1% 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 2

I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each person, or if you’ve never heard of them? [Rotate names] Haven’t heard of Favorable Unfavorable Unsure Chris Christie 1 29% 65% 5% Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub 1 1 0 8 28 54 89 60 39 3 11 6

How closely, if at all, are you following the federal trial of Governor Christie’s top aides in the so-called Bridgegate scandal? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Very closely 19% 22 14 17 21 16 19 18 15 22 12 18 25 Somewhat closely 51% 51 49 52 49 52 51 50 45 54 47 55 48 Not at all closely 30% 27 36 31 30 31 29 32 39 25 41 27 26 DK (vol) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Refused (vol) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Based on what you have heard or read, do you believe Governor Christie was unaware that his aides ordered the lane closures on the George Washington Bridge before emails and text messages were released publicly? Would you say it’s… PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Very likely 31% 37 30 23 32 29 29 32 25 34 28 31 33 Somewhat likely 14% 9 17 18 13 15 15 13 16 13 13 15 13 Somewhat unlikely 12% 7 12 17 11 13 12 12 14 10 15 11 11 Very unlikely 37% 43 31 34 38 36 37 38 37 37 36 37 37 DK (vol) 6% 4 10 7 6 7 7 5 8 6 8 6 5 Refused (vol) 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

Based on what you have heard or read, do you believe Governor Christie was unaware that his aides ordered the lane closures on the George Washington Bridge before emails and text messages were released publicly? Would you say it’s… October 2016 June 2014 January 2014 Very likely 31% 21% 24% Somewhat likely 14% 11% 12% Somewhat unlikely 12% 23% 21% Very unlikely 37% 35% 32% DK/Ref (vol) 6% 10% 11%

Which of the following best describes your opinion, even if neither statement is perfect: There is not enough proof that Governor Christie was in a position to prevent or stop the lane closures; There is sufficient proof that Governor Christie knew about and did nothing to stop the lane closures. PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ There is sufficient proof 52% 72 42 32 50 53 47 61 45 57 54 54 47 There is not sufficient proof 36% 18 40 57 39 33 41 28 41 34 31 35 42 DK (vol) 11% 10 16 10 9 13 11 10 14 9 14 10 11 Refused (vol) 1% 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Which of the following best describes your opinion, even if neither statement is perfect: Governor Christie should remain in office until his term expires; Governor Christie should be removed from office, either by stepping down or through removal by impeachment PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Remain in office 57% 38 58 81 59 55 64 42 62 54 46 59 64 Leave office 39% 58 38 16 38 40 32 52 34 41 49 37 33 DK (vol) 4% 4 4 3 3 5 3 6 4 4 5 4 3 Refused (vol) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

May 2016 In your opinion, if it is proven that Governor Christie was aware of the lane closings on the George Washington Bridge, and did nothing to prevent or continue it from happening, should he [rotate] remain in office until the end of his term or resign? All Remain 35% Resign 57% DK (vol) 1% Refused (vol) 5%

Question wording and order

US1 and US2 withheld

NJ1. And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

[Randomize approve/disapprove]

1 Approve

2 Disapprove

3 Neither (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

1/10 3/3/10 3/30/10 5/10 8/10 10/10 11/10 1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 9/11 10/11 1/12 Approve 48 52 43 44 47 51 49 53 51 51 44 54 51 53 Disapprove 31 21 32 42 36 37 39 36 39 41 44 36 36 37

3/12 5/12 8/12 9/12 11/12* 11/12** 1/13 3/13 6/13 8/13 10/13 11/13 1/14 3/14 Approve 54 56 55 51 56 77 73 66 61 58 62 61 48 41 Disapprove 34 33 35 35 33 17 19 20 26 29 35 24 39 44

*Pre-election; **Post-election

6/14 7/14 9/14 10/14 1/15 2/15 4/15 6/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 5/16 6/16 10/16 Approve 44 44 46 41 39 35 36 30 34 31 30 26 26 21 Disapprove 44 41 40 47 47 51 50 55 56 59 61 66 62 72

NJ2 In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Randomize right direction/wrong track]

1 Right direction

2 Wrong track

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

1/10 3/3/10 3/30/10 5/10 8/10 10/10 11/10 1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 9/11 10/11 1/12 Right direction 27 32 33 35 42 44 40 44 44 44 36 45 46 44 Wrong track 55 49 55 55 48 48 51 48 47 57 55 47 43 47

3/12 5/12 8/12 9/12 11/12* 11/12* 1/13 3/13 6/13 8/13 11/13 1/14 3/14 Right direction 51 50 49 52 58 69 61 57 57 49 56 51 41 Wrong track 39 41 40 34 30 19 26 26 28 34 28 39 45

*Pre-election; **Post-election

6/14 7/14 9/14 10/14 1/15 2/15 4/15 6/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 5/16 6/16 10/16 Right direction 40 39 40 37 36 33 35 28 32 30 29 23 23 20 Wrong track 48 46 44 49 49 52 54 57 59 60 59 69 67 71

NJ3 withheld for subsequent release

ELEC1 through ELEC7 released October 18, 2016

AMEND1 through AMEND5 withheld for subsequent release

BG1 How closely, if at all, are you following the federal trial of Governor Christie’s top aides in the so-called Bridgegate scandal?

1 Very closely

2 Somewhat closely

3 Not at all closely

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

BG2 Based on what you have heard or read, do you believe Governor Christie was unaware that his aides ordered the lane closures on the George Washington Bridge before emails and text messages were released publicly? Would you say it’s…

1 Very likely

2 Somewhat likely

3 Somewhat unlikely

4 Very unlikely

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

BG3 Which of the following best describes your opinion, even if neither statement is perfect: There is not enough proof that Governor Christie was in a position to prevent or stop the lane closures; There is sufficient proof that Governor Christie knew about and did nothing to stop the lane closures.

1 There IS sufficient proof

2 There is NOT sufficient proof

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

BG4 Which of the following best describes your opinion, even if neither statement is perfect: Governor Christie should remain in office until his term expires; Governor Christie should be removed from office, either by stepping down or through removal by impeachment

1 Remain in office

2 Leave office

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused (vol)

Sample characteristics (weighted)