Leo Roth

@leoroth

The Bills must: Win 3 of their final 4 AFC East Division games against Miami twice, New England and the Jets.

Take 2 home gimme games vs. Jacksonville and Cleveland.

Win one of three challenging road games at Seattle, at Cincinnati, at Oakland.

Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan was having a pretty good day.

His team, riding a four-game winning streak, was getting all sorts of love by the media. The last traces of “dirt’’ that he described as still on his team from a 0-2 start had been washed away with a 45-16 drubbing of the San Francisco 49ers.

Heck, you could smell cologne.

And then it happened. Someone asked Ryan about the pppppplayoffs.

Playoffs? A Jim Mora moment would’ve been epic. But Ryan, whose uncharacteristic heart-surgeon calm during this giddy month of winning football is a big reason his players have polished up so nicely, fielded the question like an All-Star shortstop.

“Long, long way,’’ he said. “We have to focus on the job at hand and the opponent in front of us. It’s all about Miami and that’s it. The other stuff, there’s no sense in even thinking about that. We’re not even close to that.’’

With leaves yet to rake, a pumpkin to carve, a deer to skin, a turkey to stuff and a tree to trim, yes it’s true, the NFL postseason is a long ways off. And yes, NFL coaches and players have had their brains re-wired to live their lives in seven-day segments.

Maiorana: Rex Ryan's old school ways working for the Bills

But out here in the real world? Hell yeah we’re talking playoffs.

If the season ended today, Buffalo’s 16-year playoff drought would be over as their 4-2 record would secure a wild-card spot. Corks would pop. Grown men would weep. Newborns would be named Tyrod, Shady and Nickell.

Unfortunately, the season isn’t ending today.

Ten games remain with the next seven a whole lot tougher than the first six. A time when the Bills will have to face quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger over the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Case Keenum and Colin Kaepernick.

So far Buffalo has beaten only one team (New England) with a winning record, and that was with a deflated Brady resting for his 12-game Revenge Tour.

Still, things are looking really good for Buffalo to earn an invitation to Roger Goodell’s Postseason Ball, and don’t take my word for it, take a super computer’s.

Because man does not live on chicken wings alone – he lives on fantasy football, office pools and paying for his bookie’s new hot tub – there are websites out there that each week simulate the NFL’s remaining schedule in an effort to predict the future. They do it for all sports.

All types of information is plugged in – I think they add what Rex had for breakfast. And then the computer plays (simulates) the games, not once, but tens of thousands of times to come up with projected records of each team along with its percentage chances of winning its division, making the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl.

Presently, Fivethirtyeight.com, which runs 100,000 simulations using schedule-based data, predicts the six AFC teams to make the playoffs (division winners and two wildcards) as these: Patriots (11-5), Broncos (11-5), Texans (10-6), Steelers (10-6), Chiefs (10-6), Bills (10-6).

At this juncture, the Chiefs (76 percent) and Bills (72 percent) are the top wildcard prospects, fivethirtyeight said, better favored than the Raiders (27 percent) and Bengals (24 percent). Percentages are rounded off.

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Predictionmachine.com is another fun resource. Running 50,000 simulations using team and player statistics, it predicts the same playoff qualifiers only with lesser records for all but New England: Patriots (12-4), Broncos (10-6), Texans (9-7), Steelers (9-7), Bills (9-7), Chiefs (9-7).

Buffalo (52 percent) and Kansas City (51.6) have the favorable wild-card percentages over Baltimore (46.8), Tennessee (41.1) and Oakland (39.2).

Nine wins is always an iffy wild-card hand, so 10 should be the Bills' target goal. I’m no HAL (for all you 2001: A Space Odyssey fans), but here’s how I see the rest of the season going.

Oct. 23, at Miami: The Bills have brought winning records into Miami before and laid coconuts, but the team is too focused right now. Winning streak hits five, best since a six-game run in 2004. Result: Win. Record: 5-2.

Oct. 30, New England: The Bills last swept the Patriots in 1999, the last time they made the playoffs. With Brady back, though, that’s just not happening. But they do get the much-needed split. Result: Loss. Record: 5-3.

Nov. 7, at Seattle: Monday night? In Seattle? Russell Wilson? The NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense? Bills stock up on ice bags and coffee for long flight home. Result: Loss. Record: 5-4.

Nov. 20, at Cincinnati: The Bengals have played a brutal schedule and will be above .500 when this game takes place. Cincinnati won 34-21 at Buffalo last year, but that was an EJ Manuel start. Well-rested after bye, Bills and Tyrod Taylor stop a two-game skid with key AFC win. Result: Win. Record: 6-4.

Nov. 27, Jacksonville: Bills are back home for first time in three weeks and get payback for last season’s London broil. Result: Win. Record: 7-4.

Dec. 4, at Oakland: December arrives to separate pretenders from contenders. Raiders take a classic old-school matchup between the Ryan Brothers and Jack Del Rio. Result: Loss. Record: 7-5.

Dec. 11, Pittsburgh: Big Ben will be chiming after his October knee repair. Steelers have won nine of 10 against Bills and this is their time of year. Result: Loss. Record: 7-6.

Dec. 18, Cleveland: The three-game home stand continues as Bills send Browns one game closer to No. 1 pick. Result: Win. Record: 8-6.

Dec. 24, Miami: Miami in Buffalo on Christmas Eve? Send the schedule maker a nice fruit cake. Result: Win. Record: 9-6.

Jan. 1, at New York Jets: Bills kept Jets out of playoffs last year but Jets are too lousy to return the favor. Christian Hackenberg is starting by now. Happy New Year, Buffalo. Result: Win. Record: 10-6.

So what’s my prediction for the playoffs? As HAL said, “I'm sorry Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.’’

This is enough for one day.

Must haves

The Buffalo Bills (4-2) could play .500 football the rest of the NFL season, finish 9-7, and be in the playoff conversation. But it usually takes 10, even 11 wins, to secure a wild-card spot. Here are the “must haves’’ for Buffalo:

•Win three of their final four AFC East Division games against Miami (2-4) twice, New England (5-1) and the N.Y. Jets (1-5) once more.

•Take two home gimme games vs. Jacksonville (2-3) and Cleveland (0-6). The New England and Pittsburgh (4-2) games are actually less important.

•Win one of three challenging road games at Seattle (4-1), at Cincinnati (2-4), at Oakland (4-2). Bengals and Raiders games are critical conference tie-breakers after earlier loss to Baltimore (3-3).

•Have no starters get hurt, especially Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Jerry Hughes and Stephon Gilmore. But you already knew that.

— Leo Roth