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Vancouver’s housing market may enter a correction with price declines of at least 10 per cent, according to Stefane Marion, Montreal-based chief economist and strategist at National Bank of Canada.

“There is downside to single family homes in Vancouver,” after policy changes in the last year such as higher down-payment requirements and a provincial tax on foreign buyers, Marion said Tuesday at the Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference in New York. Price declines will be moderated by the province’s strong job growth, he said. “I don’t think it sends the economy into a tailspin. It’s a healthy correction,” Marion said.

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The Pacific Coast city is the focus of concern about a crash, with prices surging well past $1 million on the lowest mortgage rates in decades and a constrained supply of land for new properties. The British Columbia provincial government set a 15 per cent tax on foreign home buyers that took effect last month, following several rounds of federal government action to tighten mortgage rules.