This is my second to last big board. As per usual, the players are ranked based on my own evaluations and strictly on what I would do at each selection point. I don’t have any insight into the opinions or inner workings of NBA teams and don’t find it particularly interesting attempting to predict where players will actually be drafted. Instead, I’m trying to project which players in this class will have the best chances to succeed long-term. Basically, this is my best guess for how a re-draft would look like in four-to-five or even 10 or 15 years from now (that’s not 100 percent accurate because I value players with high upside over safe picks, but it’s close enough to describing what the order of this board is supposed to represent). Without further ado…

Tier 10

91. Emanuel Cate

90. William McDowell-White

89. Jalen McDaniels

88. Jaylen Barford

87. Egemen Guven

86. DJ Hogg

85. Donte Grantham

84. Amine Noua

83. Joel Berry

82. Tony Carr

81. Billy Preston

80. Dakota Mathias

79. Brian Bowen

78. Sagaba Konate

77. Matur Maker

Tier 9

76. Chimezie Metu

75. Admiral Schofield

74. Justin Jackson

73. Jerome Robinson

72. Laurynas Birutis

71. Kerwin Roach

70. Omari Spellman

69. Keenan Evans

68. Jarrey Foster

67. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

66. Tyus Battle

65. Tremont Waters

64. Tadas Sedekersis

63. Hamidou Diallo

62. Jalen Hudson

61. Isaac Bonga

60. Ethan Happ

59. Chris Chiozza

58. Bonzie Colson

57. Raymond Spalding

56. Kenrich Williams

55. Jarred Vanderbilt

54. Udoka Azubuike

53. Rodions Kurucs

52. Rawle Alkins

51. Moritz Wagner

50. Melvin Frazier

Tier 8

49. Malik Newman

48. Gary Clark

47. Josh Okogie

46. Allonzo Trier

45. Trevon Duval

44. Donte DiVIncenzo

43. Devon Hall

42. Vince Edwards

41. Aaron Holiday

40. Elie Okobo

Tier 7

39. PJ Washington

38. Goga Bitadze

37. Gary Trent

36. Carsen Edwards

35. DeAnthony Melton

34. Bruce Brown

33. Grayson Allen

32. Khyri Thomas

31. Landry Shamet

30. Kevin Huerter

29. Anfernee Simons

28. Chandler Hutchison

27. Devonte Graham

26. Jevon Carter

Tier 6

25. Troy Brown

24. Shamorie Ponds

23. Kevin Knox

22. Lonnie Walker

21. Jalen Brunson

20. Keita Bates-Diop

Probably the biggest theme of the bottom five tiers is how highly I’ve ranked many of the point guards and guards in general, in comparison to both mainstream consensus and even my Stepien colleagues. One of the big takeaways in recent drafts has been the value of wings and as switching becomes more prominent and teams continue to rely more and more on 3-point shooting. Skilled perimeter players who are able to defend several positions are becoming more and more en vogue. While I’m still on board with that trend in general, I also believe that it has lead to smaller guards being somewhat undervalued.

Look at some of the under-drafted (or even undrafted) young NBA players. Guys like Fred Van Vleet, TJ McConnell, Tyus Jones, Malcolm Brogdon, Delon Wright, Tyler Johnson and Yogi Ferrell have all played above the expectations they had coming into the NBA. Even smaller wings like Josh Hart and Donovan Mitchell could be added to this conversation. Clearly, the roster context and overall fit these players were drafted into has played a large role in their success, but there is a plethora of players who fit this sort of profile in the 2018 draft. Polished and experienced college stars like Jevon Carter, Devonte Graham and Jalen Brunson have shown the skills and IQ necessary to possibly provide positive value on an NBA court from day one. Even someone like Chris Chiozza, who has gotten almost no love on other mock drafts and big boards, possibly has the makings to be this year’s version of McConnell or Van Vleet.

Some of these guys may be older by draft standards, but they are still at worst in the very start of their prime on the developmental age curve. Age is the best single indicator of future improvement, but the best answer to “which prospects in this draft will improve the most?” is still “I don’t know”. As mentioned earlier, team fit will be especially important for many of these guards, and once we know what NBA teams they’ve been drafted to, we should have a much better idea of what their projection will look like. However, until then, I believe the point guard class to be somewhat underrated in the lower end of this draft. Carsen Edwards is another type who fits this trend. Edwards is a player who lacks the passing vision and decision-making of the more experienced guards mentioned above, but he’s significantly younger and a more complete scorer. Devon Hall and Donte DiVincenzo could also fall into this category. However, they are more comparable to two of last draft’s most under-drafted prospects — Josh Hart and Donovan Mitchell. Of course, neither Hall nor DiVincenzo is nearly the physical talent that Mitchell is, but they don’t have to be nearly as good as Mitchell has been to be impactful players. Size is important, especially on the defensive end, but basketball is very much a game of skill, instincts and IQ, and it’s important not to overlook the players that strive the most in those categories.

Tier 5

19. Dzanan Musa

18. Robert Williams

17. Shake Milton

16. Collin Sexton

15. Jacob Evans

Outside the combine and perhaps some slight adjustments based on workouts and interviews, the college players on this board are pretty set in my mind when it comes to their rankings. However, I’m significantly less certain about the international players, as I’m still watching film and gathering information about many of them. So international prospects are likely to see some movement on my final board compared to this one, especially after EuroCamp in early June.

One of the international players I’m still watching film on is Dzanan Musa, who also happens to be an interesting example of a high variance prospect. I can see him developing into an efficient 20 points per game scorer, a top three option for a championship contender. He was already the top offensive option for one of the best teams in the Adriatic League this past year as an 18 year-old. On the other hand, it’s possible Musa struggles to translate his game to the next level due to his lack of strength and explosive athletic ability, and he ends up never amounting to much. As I continue trying to assess his chances of reaching either outcome, there is a decent chance his ranking on my final big board will be significantly different than this one.

Robert Williams has the talent of a lottery player, but because of his inconsistent feel and motor, he was the odd man out among the abundance of talented big men at the top of this draft. Collin Sexton is rated below mainstream consensus, but his ranking shouldn’t be a surprise to any Stepien readers. Shake Milton and Jacob Evans are two wings from the American Athletic that seem to smoothly project into 3&D roles. Evans is the superior defensive prospect, while Milton is a more versatile and polished offensive player.

Tier 4

14. Mitchell Robinson

13. Zhaire Smith

12. Jontay Porter

This is where we get to the real cream of the crop in this draft. The drop between tiers four and five is larger and more distinct than the drop between any other two tiers. For example, the difference between tiers three and four is significantly smaller. For a moment, I even considered Zhaire Smith, Jontay Porter and Mitchell Robinson in the same tier as the players in tier three, but ultimately decided that they were a notch below. There isn’t a realistic situation where I’d take Porter and Zhaire over Mo Bamba and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.That said, I’m still a big fan of Smith, Porter and Robinson. This looks like one of the stronger parts of this draft. Any team that comes away with a prospect of the caliber of this trio would be getting an unbelievable value in the late lottery range. Don’t forget that all three players are rated at least slightly lower on mainstream draft sites, so all three of these guys are also serious sleeper candidates. I won’t bore you with their scouting reports as Jackson Hoy already wrote the definitive Zhaire article, Sean and Cole covered Jontay on one off their recent podcasts and I wrote up an in depth profile of Robinson a few months back.

Tier 3

11. Mohamed Bamba

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

9. Miles Bridges

8. Marvin Bagley

7. DeAndre Ayton

6. Michael Porter

I actually like Mohamed Bamba, so him being ranked 11th says a lot more about how strong this class is than him being a weak or overrated prospect. Ranking Marvin Bagley eighth and DeAndre Ayton seventh is sure to cause some controversy, but I assure you that’s not my intention. First off, both of them are very, VERY good prospects, but I felt pretty comfortable with the guys in my top two tiers and the sort of talent Michael Porter Jr flashed over the course of his prep career made it impossible to rank him any lower than six. If you aren’t sure why I’m lower on them, you can check out JZ’s profile on Ayton and Cole’s profile of Bagley. Both do an excellent job breaking down the positives and negatives of their respective games and explain some of the possible downfalls in their projections, weaknesses that have been overlooked by some members of the NBA draft community. Choosing between Bagley and Ayton was extremely hard as well, and I had Bagley over Ayton until the very last possible moment. JZ’s excellent article that compared their offensive skills made a persuasive argument in favor of Bagley. Still, I just couldn’t bring myself to rank Ayton any lower as I found his physical talent too imposing and intriguing to pass up. Ultimately, it’s basically a tie and you can easily convince me in favor of either player at this point.

Next up is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who I believe I’ve ranked higher than anyone else at The Stepien. Statistically, Shai is a very well-rounded player, but there are several weaknesses that make him a sort of “atypical” player when it comes to successful archetypes in today’s NBA. It’s the same criticisms he has gotten since high school, when people doubted his ability to be a starting caliber player at the high major level in college. I was the only one that ranked Gilgeous-Alexander in my top 25 in the preseason and many questioned that ranking since his game didn’t fit in within the range of skills and physical talents that are expected from one-and-done guards. Shai is painfully skinny, not an especially explosive or quick twitch athlete, and lacks range on his pull-up jumper. Yet, to this point, he has been remarkably productive and successful at every level he has played at, from EYBL to HS to becoming Kentucky’s best player by the end of his freshman season in college. Gilgeous-Alexander seems to fall within another category of prospect that’s been generally undervalued in recent drafts — the versatile wing type with a questionable jump shot that doesn’t fit into the check box mold of draft scouting and evaluation. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ben Simmons are on the higher end of this spectrum, but they are both much taller and more athletic than Shai and it would be foolish for me to compare them at this stage. However, when you start moving a little lower on this spectrum of guys that “don’t fit in a box but just know how to play basketball” you get to players like Kyle Anderson, David Nwaba or even Josh Richardson. Richardson shot 18-80 (22.5 percent) on 3-pointers as a freshman and sophomore in college combined. He was a defensive role player, was too skinny, and wasn’t athletic or skilled enough for the NBA. Even after his breakout campaign as a senior, many mock drafts had him going undrafted. However, during his rookie season with the Heat, he quickly showed that he belongs in the league and has continued to improve and outplay his draft spot since then. Clearly, guys who play hard and most importantly, have high level feel and natural understanding of the game, find a spot in the league one way or another. Richardson may have had some outlier improvements over the course of his career, but Gilgeous-Alexander is a much better player than Richardson was at the same age and more talented overall. So yes, if we were creating him in NBA 2k, Gilgeous-Alexander would have some serious weaknesses and poorly rated attributes. The NBA isn’t a video game though, and at the end of the day these guys have to play five-on-five basketball. As cliche as it may sound, vertical leap testing, maximum bench press or 3-point shooting in an empty gym doesn’t help your team win games. As long as we are drafting these guys to play basketball, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is pretty clearly a top 10 prospect in this draft.

Tier 2

5. Mikal Bridges

4. Wendell Carter

3. Trae Young

2. Jaren Jackson

In honor of rapper 6ix9ine, I present to you the 69/69/69 club aka high major players with at least 69 blocks, 69 assists and .685 free throw percentage in a single season.

The list is as follows: Shane Battier (twice as a junior and senior), Ben Lammers (as a junior), Tim Duncan (as a junior), Ekpe Udoh (as a junior), Channing Frye (as a senior), Jordan Bell (as a junior), Joakim Noah (as a sophomore), Sir’Dominic Pointer (as a senior), Terence Morris (as a junior, also never understood why that guy didn’t play in the NBA) and one Jeff Hagen (as a senior).

Fairly impressive, but as you can see, everyone of those guys did it as a junior or senior except for Joakim Noah, who did it as a sophomore. No one in the Sports-Reference database, high-major or mid-major or even low-major, has done it as a freshman. No one until this year that is, when Wendell Carter finished his freshman season with 76 blocks, 74 assists and .738 free throw percentage. Carter did this in only 993 minutes (most of the players on the list were at about 1200 minutes on their season). He was also still 18 at the time and pondered a return to Duke for several weeks before declaring for the draft on April 16th, his 19th birthday. Needless to say, Carter is a ridiculously versatile big man at his age. Able to bang down low as one of the strongest players in college basketball, Carter also showed the skill, touch and fluidity to handle, pass and shoot. Carter is very intelligent both on and off the court, and came a long way over the course of his one year at Duke. Sure, he doesn’t have the quickest feet in space, but he also isn’t a total snail like Udoka Azubuike, and it’s really his only serious weakness. In many ways, he is exactly the type of big man I’d want in the modern game. He’s able to spread the court, find shooters on the weak side out of the short roll, punish smaller defenders in the post, protect the rim and rebound on the defensive end, while at the same time being one of the younger players in the class with plenty of potential for further development.

Most of my Trae Young thoughts can be found in this Liberty Ballers article. I’ve had Jaren Jackson number two on my board since January, when I announced it on Ode to Oden. Sean and Cole did a great job of breaking Jackson’s game down on another episode, so I won’t get into the specifics here. The only thing I’d really have to add to their excellent scouting is his misleading finishing numbers and how his role played into his lack of volume around the rim, a subject I covered in a recent article.

So that leaves Mikal Bridges, another controversial choice on my big board, since not too many will have Mikal as high as fifth overall. It will certainly ruffle feathers to have him over guys like Ayton and Bagley. My reasoning is relatively simple — 20 points and 10 rebounds may look impressive in the box score, but it doesn’t necessarily impact winning from the big man position. In the NBA’s 3-point era (since the 1979-80 season), 674 seasons with at least 1000 minutes played and a PER of 21 have been recorded. Out of those 674 seasons, only 36 have had a Box Plus-Minus lower than one. Out of those 36, 23 were players 6-foot-10 or taller and 27 were 6-foot-9 or taller. 20 of the 36 seasons came from players who averaged at least 19 points and 9 rebounds per 36 minutes. Another five came from Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside and Clint Capela not quite reaching the 19 point mark, and another season came from Amare Stoudemire averaging 24 points but just 7.8 rebounds per 70 possessions. In short, if that was a bit confusing, while “20 and 10” might be an impressive feat when it comes to box score production, that stat-line on its own isn’t actually all that conducive to winning.

Almost the complete opposite of that spectrum, since 1979-80 there have been 1089 seasons with 1000 minutes played and BPM of at least three. In just 57 of those seasons the players also had a PER of under 15. However, 28 of those 57 seasons belong to players listed between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-9 and averaging at least 2.3 3-point attempts per 70 possessions. The overwhelming majority of those 28 players also had at least semi-impressive combinations of steals and blocks. The point is that 3&D wings may not stand out when it comes to traditional box score stats, but they are actually highly valuable and helpful to winning basketball. That may even more so be the case nowadays. Below are Real Plus-Minus numbers for Robert Covington and Otto Porter from the past two seasons, as well as their RPM rank among small forwards and overall.

2017-18

Robert Covington 5.78 RPM (#1 Small Forward, #7 overall)

Otto Porter 4.99 RPM (#2 Small Forward, #10 overall)

2016-17

Otto Porter 3.56 RPM (#4 Small Forward, #24 overall)

Robert Covington 3.55 RPM (#5 Small Forward, #25 overall)

Real Plus-Minus isn’t a perfect statistic. No stat is. But I think arguing that Porter and Covington have been top 25 or even top 20 players in the league is totally fair. So what is the point of all of this?

Well in case you haven’t figured it out yet, this directly correlates to Mikal Bridges. Covington and Porter came out of college with measurements, scouting reports and statistics that are eerily similar to Mikal’s. Bridges is an inch or two shorter than Porter and Covington, and when you consider the fact that Porter was only 20 years-old when he left Georgetown, his statistical profile looks slightly more impressive than Mikal’s (nearly 22). However, the comparisons between the three players line up closely enough that I feel comfortable calling Mikal the player that has as clear of a path to being a top 20 player in NBA value as anyone else in this draft. Of course, that’s not a guarantee, but when combined with Bridges’ distinctly high floor, it’s more than enough for me to consider him a top five prospect. At the same time, I also feel comfortable valuing Mikal’s projection over interior offensive big men with questionable defensive upside like Ayton and Bagley.

Tier 1

1. Luka Doncic

I’m actually working on my Doncic article right now, so I’ll keep this short. I think there’s been a little bit of confirmation bias going on with Doncic, as he started the season so hot that some of us have almost eliminated the possibility of him being anything but the clear top prospect. I’ll go into detail about just how close he is to Jaren Jackson in the upcoming article, but as you can see I still have him number one in his own tier for the time being. In the spirit of fairness, Doncic has also gotten plenty of unjust criticism and ignorant commentary directed at him on social media and even in certain mainstream media, but I don’t think the poorly formed arguments that I’ve heard from that contingent require a serious response. Which is why I’ve mostly ignored them.