The Clinton coalition and the Obama coalition both led to electoral college landslides, but with some very different states. Clinton twice triumphed in Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, while Obama twice took Virginia and took North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida one more time than his most recent Democratic predecessor. What this diary series will do is examine the changes at the county level in each state between the 1992 election and the 2008 election, elections chosen because the popular vote margin was very similar. These numbers given account for Ross Perot's effect to the best of my ability, using exit polls to measure regional second choices of Perot voters, along with taking out those who likely wouldn't have showed up at all in a two-man race. I also did my best to adjust for Bill Clinton's home-state effect in Arkansas. In Virginia, I assigned independent cities to their closest county, which at times requires picking one of two neighboring counties but is often straightforward.

The color scheme is as follows: the change in net votes for a particular party in a particular county is reflected in an increasingly dark shade of that color. The darkest shade of blue is black.

Here is the map of region one, which is more or less the South. The South has many different definitions; I picked these states not because they are the only or most "Southern" states but to divide the nation well into four regions.

I am going to proceed state by state, beginning with Arkansas.

Arkansas: Shifts in Arkansas have come all over; it is the only state in the region where every county got better for Republicans. The largest changes on the whole come from rural areas, which swung against Democrats all over the state. The southwest and delta areas have had the smallest swings, but every area was affected. While the 11 counties with the largest swings made up 42% of the state's swing rightward, the remaining areas still made up the majority. The next largest area is the Little Rock area, consisting of Pulaski (Little Rock), suburban Faulkner and Saline, and exurban White and Lonoke. Pulaski, which contains an actual city, saw a smaller swing, but Republicans made massive gains in each of the other four counties, boosted both by changing minds and population growth. Northwest Arkansas, the state's other populous area, saw almost 14% of the state's shift in its four-county area, especially helped by booming Benton County. Washington County, home of Fayetteville, saw a much smaller swing. Finally, other population centers such as Craighead County (Jonesboro) and Garland County (Hot Spring) saw large movements. The southern part of the state actually saw relatively little swing. If Mark Pryor loses in 2014, it's probably because of the bright red counties, which have increasingly suburbanized, which generally in the South means Republican votes up and down the ballot.

Louisiana: Louisiana is another disaster for Democrats; in the 1990s it had a D+ Partisan Voting Index and now it is blood red save Mary Landrieu. And, with apologies to Bossier and Ouachita Parishes up north, there is one culprit: Cajuns. From Lake Charles to Alexandria to Lafayette to Houma to the rural areas in between, Cajun County in the south of the state has gotten redder while the northern part has moved much slower. The dividing line shows up quite clearly on the map, almost halfway down the state. Suburbs are another cause: St Tammany and Livingston Parishes are the darkest shades of red out of any in the state, and in fact St Tammany had the 3rd largest Republican growth of anywhere in this diary, outside of two Georgian counties. Orleans Parish did see a bit of Democratic gains, while East Baton Rouge saw substantial increases, but these two parishes combined are offset only by Calcasieu Parish (Lake Charles).

Mississippi: Mississippi is more of a mixed bag, thanks to the already substantial racial polarization present in 1992, which has only grown worse since. Suburban DeSoto and Rankin saw Republican growth, as did the Gulf Coast counties, while parts of the delta and Hinds (Jackson) County saw gains for Democrats, but on the whole it was almost entirely a wash. The only reason for the (small) Republican gains in the last 20 years are the northeast corner and some smaller counties in the inland south of the state.

Here is the map again, so you don't have to keep scrolling up:



Alabama: Like Mississippi, Alabama saw its cities and suburbs neutralize each other: Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile (to a lesser extent) canceled out gains for Republicans in suburban Baldwin and Shelby, as well as Madison (Huntsville) and Morgan (Decatur). Thus, Republican gains here are attributable to the less populous areas, split evenly between clearly rural areas and medium-sized places like Etowah (Gadsden), St Clair (exurbs), Cullman, and Lauderdale counties. However, there is a clear geographic divide; the Northern half of the state has grown far more Republican, pulling the state somewhat rightward.

Georgia:

Georgia is a state of extremes. In the southern two-thirds of the state, we have extreme...well, nothing really. The larger areas (Albany, Savannah, Macon, Columbus, Augusta) saw Democratic increases, the rural areas on the whole tilted slightly to the right, and a few larger counties (Effingham, Columbia, Houston) had large movements right. North Georgia clearly got more Republican, but not hugely so as it isn't that populous and was red to begin with. In the Atlanta metro, one can almost see a ring of solid red around a ring of lighter blue around a ring of dark blue or even black. Outer suburbs and exurbs saw large Republican growth: Forsyth and Cherokee Counties led the way, the two biggest gainers in this diary, and Coweta, Paulding, Carroll, and Fayette each improved for Team Red as well. In the mid-tier, normally purple or even heavily red areas got bluer: historically blood red Cobb and Gwinnett saw modest Democratic gains, as did smaller Douglas and Rockdale Counties. Clayton County, south of Atlanta, saw a net gain of 65,000 for Democrats. Fulton County, containing Atlanta, saw 83,000. And DeKalb County, east of Atlanta, saw an astonishing 137,000. Of course, this hasn’t been enough to move Georgia leftward, as rural areas getting redder and suburbs growing has been a potent Republican combination in most of the south, but the numbers are still really something. For comparison, Forsyth County saw a mere 40,000 in Republican gains.

Florida:

Florida is a state that is partially Southern and partially not. People quibble about where the lines are, but nonetheless that dichotomy is mostly reflected here. In the northern part of the state, we see a map similar to Georgia or Alabama: places containing more urban areas (Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Gainesville) are varying shades of blue, other populous areas (both around Jacksonville and on the Gulf Coast) are red, and rural areas are pale red. Of note also is Bay County (Panama City) which has seen substantial growth as well. In the central part of the state, near the crucial I-4 corridor, it’s mostly been good news for Team Blue. Just north of I-4 we see gains for Republicans in the outer Tampa Bay and Orlando areas as well as in Marion County (Ocala) and Sumter County (The Villages), but on the whole these gains aren’t too substantial. The Lakeland area is a wash, but Orlando, Kissimmee, St Petersburg, and Tampa Bay and their inner suburbs provide Democrats with almost 200,000 net votes, canceling out essentially all of the areas north of I-4. And then there are the areas south of I-4, a mix of solid Republican gains (Brevard County on the Space Coast and the Fort Myers-Naples area in the southwest) and huge Democratic ones (South Florida). In fact, outside of Broward and Dade Counties’ gains since 1992 (not even their margins), Florida would have gone red not only in 2012 but in 2008 as well.



South Carolina:

The lower three-quarters of South Carolina has been fought to a draw in the partisan tug-of-war; Democrats have improved in Charleston, Columbia, and some smaller rural areas that are mostly Black, and the suburbs and beach areas have gotten more Republican (note the large gains in Myrtle Beach). It’s the upper fourth where Republicans have really thrived; the Anderson-Greensville-Spartanburg-Rock Hill corridor is where Democratic dreams of turning the home of Fort Sumter blue again go to die. Each of the 7 counties up there are quite red on this map, some overwhelmingly so. In a nutshell, that’s the story of South Carolina.

North Carolina: South Carolina’s northern neighbor is of course a different story. Here, the suburbs haven’t grown enough (or stayed red enough). Sure, the suburban Triad area (Greensboro and Winston-Salem) has gotten redder and grown, but the urban counties have more than outdone that growth. The same story is even more true in Charlotte, where Mecklenburg County is colored black on this map and has outdone its suburbs in gains by 71,000 net votes. Sure, medium-sized Jacksonville, Salisbury, and Hendersonville have helped Republicans, but Fayetteville, Rocky Mount, Asheville, and even Wilmington have more than done the same for Democrats. And then there is the Research Triangle, with 115,000 net votes for Democrats even with suburban Johnston County’s growth for Republicans. You can see why it’s become a swing state; there are just too many Democrats in the inner suburbs and/or the outer suburbs haven’t grown fast enough.

Virginia: Virginia has an astonishingly little amount of red on its map. Most of its Appalachian 9th district and much of the similarly Appalachian 6th are red, but that’s about it, and they aren’t that dark. Some of the Richmond area is light red due to suburbs and exurbs growing, but again it’s sparse. If you add up all the gains in the rural areas and the Richmond suburbs for Republicans, they are canceled out just by Henrico County (Richmond) and Chesterfield County (suburbs). Note that the rural areas do contain Democratic growth in the heavily Black Southside, especially in Petersburg. Everything after this: Charlottesville, Tidewater, and Northern Virginia is all gravy for Democrats, being past the breakeven point (although of course the breakeven point’s result is a red state, not a purple one). Note that Republicans’ problems here are even worse than it looks because the black-colored Tidewater area (122,000 net votes gained between the cities) blends in with the black-colored coastline. Northern Virginia, however, is the key to this state turning purple, but we already knew that.



Tennessee: Al Gore’s home state has taken a sharp right turn in the last 20 years. Unlike in North Carolina or Virginia, the suburbs grew fast enough (or stayed red enough) that they have canceled out the cities: Davidson County (Nashville) and Shelby County (Memphis) combined are more than canceled out by their respective suburbs, Hamilton County (Chattanooga), and Montgomery County (Clarksville). So that’s what’s held even. But add in the eastern part of the state (Knoxville, Johnson City, and some less populated counties) and the small individually but large altogether movement in rural, flat counties and we see what occurred in the state.

Kentucky: The state is similar to Tennessee in almost every way; both have even had recent Republican Senate floor leaders. And like Tennessee, we find only two blue colored counties on the map: Fayette (Lexington) and Jefferson (Louisville). In this quite rural state, rural areas make up most of the movement, although the suburbs of Lexington, Louisville, and Cincinnati partook as well. Interestingly, of the three suburban Cincinnati counties, only Boone really got redder. Coal country may be best known for making Kentucky less hospitable for Democrats but on the whole its population is rather small, although still substantial. And speaking of coal…

West Virginia: West Virginia nearly joins Arkansas in having all counties red on the map, except for Jefferson County, which has become a DC exurb. The northern panhandle (Weirton/Wheeling) along with the north center of the state, Parkersburg, and coal country (Nick Rahall’s congressional district) are where the main movement has been. Charleston and Morgantown, two of the few places in the state with liberals, have seen much smaller shifts. Much of the state is very sparsely populated and thus appears pale pink or even white.

So there you have it. Should I do more of these? What did you learn?

