The Progressive Conservatives are spending almost $5 billion more than any government in Ontario history, but the tabling of expenditure estimates reveals huge cuts in many areas.

Treasury Board President Peter Bethlenfalvy tabled the 2019-20 estimates Thursday, fleshing out Finance Minister Vic Fedeli’s record $163.4-billion budget of a month ago and adding a sobering message.

“Ontario must chart a new fiscal path or risk becoming a failed economic state,” said Bethlenfalvy, who defended Premier Doug Ford’s Tories for spending more than former premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals projected last year.

One of the biggest cuts is to the budget of the Ministry of Community and Social Services, which is projected to be $892 million less than last year’s estimate. About $16.6 billion will be spent, down from an anticipated $17.5 billion, mostly due to changes Ontario’s social assistance programs, Ontario Works and the Ontario Disability Support Program.

“The government is moving forward with reforms that restore dignity, encourage employment and empower the provinces most vulnerable to break free from the poverty cycle,” said a spokesman for Social Services Minister Lisa MacLeod, noting a planned 3 per cent welfare rate increase was halved to 1.5 per cent.

While autism services are being bolstered after the Tories endured protests from parents and children following a controversial program revamp, there’s a cut to the Family Responsibility Office, which goes after deadbeat parents for not paying court-ordered child support. The government hopes to save $3.3 million through increased use of improved digital and analytics technologies.

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At the Ministry of Education, where overall spending is up, child care capital expenditures will be slashed from a projected $103 million to $10 million — a $93 million reduction.

Although spending is going up at the Ministry of Health, unspecified research programs are being cut by $51.7 million.

“As part of our government’s commitment to direct all available resources to front-line care, we have made the decision to wind down certain research programs. As we do, we are supporting an effective and respectful wind-down period for impacted organizations,” said an aide to Health Minister Christine Elliott.

At Economic Development, $212 million is being slashed from job-creation programs, reducing last year’s budget estimate of $942 million to $730 million.

The government has cancelled all provincial funding for think tanks and also reduced transfers to incubators such as MaRS in Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo’s Communitech.

“They want to be self-sustaining. We think that should be the goal and we will work with them to make it happen,” said an aide to Economic Development Minister Todd Smith.

At Agriculture and Rural Affairs, spending on “better public health and environment” is down by $9.7 million to $79.5 million from last year’s $89.2 million estimate. In all, the department’s budget will be $878 million, a $320-million cut from the $1.2 billion that had been estimated.

At Indigenous Affairs, the budget is being reduced from $97.7 million to $69.4 million, with $28.3 million being cut due to “the conclusion of one-time investments and planned investments.”

Programs for “seniors affairs” are being cut to $24.2 million from last year’s estimate of $28.9 million. That includes oversight of the Retirement Homes Regulatory Authority to ensure retirement homes are safe.

“Since Ford’s budget was released, the cuts just keep coming,” said NDP deputy leader John Vanthof.

“The detailed estimates have confirmed the tally of wreckage so far, and revealed that Doug Ford isn’t done swinging his budget axe, hacking away at front-line services,” said Vanthof (Timiskaming-Cochrane)

Green Leader Mike Schreiner said the Tories’ fiscal problems are in part due to the decision to continue massive subsidies to electricity rates — albeit through the treasury instead of the hydro ratepayers’ base, as the previous Liberal government did.

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“By adopting these artificial subsidies as their own, the Conservatives lose any claim to fiscal responsibility,” said Schreiner.

Because of a pension accounting change, the Tories revised last year’s Liberal $6.7-billion budget shortfall to $11.7 billion, and are projecting deficits of $10.3 billion this fiscal year, $6.8 billion in 2020-21, $5.6 billion in 2021-22, and $3.5 billion in 2022-23 before achieving a surplus in 2023-24.

Unlike the Liberals, they opted to no longer count about $11 billion in the government co-sponsored Ontario Public Service Employees’ Union Pension Plan and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan as assets on the books.

That increases the annual shortfall by as much as $5 billion.

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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