Starting Five: College hoops coaches on the hot seat

Scott Gleeson | USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY Sports examines the most intriguing story lines heading into the 2015-16 college basketball season.

1. Travis Ford, Oklahoma State: He's piloted the Cowboys to five NCAA tournament appearances in seven seasons, but his teams have only won one tournament game, which came in his first campaign in Stillwater. His record at OSU of 143-90 is solid, but this is a program that demands more. And it certainly doesn't help that fellow Big 12 programs like Iowa State and Oklahoma, two Final Four contenders in 2015-16, have way brighter futures.

Ford's name has popped up on this list the past few years because his teams have underachieved, leading to unrest in a die-hard fan base. In a loaded Big 12 in which the Cowboys are projected to finish seventh, Ford's team will likely need to finish near the top half of the league and actually win a game in the NCAAs to avoid a coaching change.

2. John Groce, Illinois

If there were a bad luck award for coaches, the Fighting Illini's coach would win easily. Groce is point guard's coach, which helped him steer Ohio to a Sweet 16 appearance. Unfortunately, Illinois hasn't had a great guard while he's been in Champaign, Ill.

Lead guard Tracy Abrams has missed the past two seasons — tearing his Achilles after an ACL tear the year before. On top of that, Groce has come ridiculously close but consistently missing in landing a program-changing player on the recruiting trail. The Illini were edged by Villanova in hauling in Jalen Brunson and were in the running for Jahlil Okafor before he chose Duke.

Though winning and reaching the NCAA tournament are certainly criteria for a success-hungry program like Illinois, recruiting is crucial with a hotbed of talent in nearby Chicago. Groce has undoubtedly done his best to create a positive culture within the program and his 62-42 record at Illinois is pretty good considering a plethora of injuries and late-season collapses, but he's only guided the Illini to one NCAA tournament appearance in three seasons, and they've been way off the top of the pack in the Big Ten. One more season without an NCAA tournament trip will not sit well with a new athletic director, as Illinois just fired Mike Thomas, who hired Groce.

3. Josh Pastner, Memphis

As great of an overall record as Pastner owns — 148-58 overall and 74-26 in league play (both Conference USA and AAC) — his Memphis teams haven't done anything spectacular in the postseason, going 2-4 in the NCAA tournament. The Tigers missed the postseason for the first time in 15 years last season. Also, the optimism for this season has been damaged, with top player Austin Nichols abruptly transferring to Virginia in the offseason.

Just a few seasons ago, Pastner was seen as an up-and-coming coach and capable replacement for John Calipari. Yet another losing season could anger a fanbase that demands winning seasons regularly. Two woeful seasons in a row won't sit well in Memphis.

4. Bruce Weber, Kansas State

Much can change in a year or two as far as perceptions go, and Weber knows that all too well from his days coaching at Illinois. Weber had immediate success after taking over Kansas State, earning 2013 Big 12 Coach of the Year honors. Heading into his fourth season at the program, though, the future looks far from promising. He'll be tasked with coaching a depleted roster after leading scorer Marcus Foster transferred and fellow contributors Nino Williams and Thomas Gipson graduated. In a jam-packed Big 12 this year, it will take more than superb coaching to even go .500. That might mean a losing season that Weber can't afford.

Of all the coaches close to the hot seat, Weber's is the coolest and his career pedigree (374-189 overall) is better than many coaches with great job security. But we've seen this downward trajectory before. Weber was the Naismith National Coach of the Year in 2005 with Illinois. Then after two stellar seasons with players he didn't recruit, it became a struggle to achieve mediocrity. The same pattern may be in place in Manhattan. The Wildcats tied for first in the Big 12 with a 14-4 mark in 2012-13. Then they finished 10-8 in 2013-14 and 8-10 last season. And unless Weber can find success with a new-look roster lacking significant talent, the downward spiral will continue.

5. Dave Rice, UNLV

Recruiting is at least half the battle in college basketball. And Rice has excelled in that area, as he's signed several top-10 recruiting classes. That talent hasn't equated to massive success, though. He's 89-47 overall at UNLV and 37-29 in the Mountain West. The most glaring stat: Rice has not coached the Runnin' Rebels to an NCAA tournament win, which includes first-round upsets in 2012 and 2013. And they've been absent from the Big Dance in each of the past two seasons.

There's no shortage of talent here. It's actually the exact opposite of the Bruce Weber situation at Kansas State. But eventually, results are completely necessary regardless of the big names heading to Vegas on a yearly basis.

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