Richard Charnin

Aug. 26, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

LINKS TO POSTS

Democratic Primaries spread sheet

From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

In the Aug. 24 Ipsos/Reuters poll Clinton had 39%; Trump 36%; Johnson 7%; Stein 3%. The sample of 1,516 Americans included 635 Democrats (41.9%), 527 Republicans (34.8%), 174 Independents (11.5%) and 180 (11.8%) who did not indicate a preference. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7349

The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates 28% Democrats, 28% Republicans and 42% Independents.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

In the July 17 Ipsos poll, Independents comprised just 14% of the sample. Stein had 1%. Clinton and Trump were tied. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/08/07/strange-polls-jill-stein-at-1-and-just-14-of-respondents-are-independents/

Why the large discrepancies between the Ipsos poll and Gallup Party-ID survey?

The Ipsos poll also indicated a Party_ID split of 36% Democrats and 25% Republicans – an apparent contradiction to the polling sample. Assuming the other 39% were Independents, it is a close match to the Gallup Survey.

In the primaries, Sanders won approximately 65% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. One would logically expect that Stein would do nearly as well as Sanders against Clinton in a four-way race. They are in essential agreement on major issues – and Clinton has very low approval ratings. But Stein had an implausibly low 3% on Aug. 24 and 1% on July 17.

True Vote Model Model Base Case

This is not a forecast. It is a scenario analysis based on the following assumptions.

Party-ID: 39% Independents, 36% Democrats, 25% Republicans.

Vote shares: Stein has 40% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. Clinton has 25% and 50%, respectively. They each have 5% of Republicans.

Base Case Result

Stein 29.45% and 231 EV, Clinton 29.00% and 196 EV, Trump 25.15% and 111 EV.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson Ind 39% 40% 25% 15% 20% Dem 36% 35% 50% 5% 10% Rep 25% 5% 5% 70% 20% Total 100% 29.45% 29.00% 25.15% 16.40% Votes 129,106 38,022 37,441 32,470 21,173 Elect Vote 538 231 196 111 0

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Stein % Dem Stein % 31.0% 33.0% 35.0% 37.0% 39.0% of Ind Stein 45% 30.0% 30.7% 31.4% 32.1% 32.8% 40% 28.0% 28.7% 29.45% 30.2% 30.9% 35% 26.1% 26.8% 27.5% 28.2% 28.9% Clinton 45% 28.5% 27.8% 27.1% 26.3% 25.6% 40% 30.4% 29.7% 29.00% 28.3% 27.6% 35% 32.4% 31.7% 31.0% 30.2% 29.5% Stein Margin 45% 1.5% 2.9% 4.4% 5.8% 7.2% 40% -2.4% -1.0% 0.45% 1.9% 3.3% 35% -6.3% -4.9% -3.5% -2.0% -0.6% Vote Margin (000) 45% 1,898 3,757 5,616 7,475 9,334 40% -3,137 -1,278 581 2,440 4,299 35% -8,172 -6,313 -4,454 -2,595 -736