The Counter, a “nonprofit newsroom investigating the forces shaping how and what America eats,” is pushing back against claims made by the chairman of Tyson Foods who warned in a full page advertisement in the NYT, WaPo and Arkansas Democrat-Gazette claiming “the food supply chain is breaking.”

“There’s more to the story” is putting it mildly if this the following information in this thread is accurate:

Thread: On Sunday, John H. Tyson, chairman of Tyson Foods, published a front-page newspaper ad with an ominous message: “The food supply chain is breaking.” It was a frightening dispatch from a major meatpacker. But there's more to the story. 1/https://t.co/AKkfOXcP43 pic.twitter.com/1mPtgWYxbX — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

For starters, yes, COVID-19 is disrutping some plants:

Yes, it’s true that meatpackers like @TysonFoods are intensely disrupted by Covid-19. Social distancing is tough in these facilities, and some plants have closed temporarily due to outbreaks. We’re tracking U.S. plant closures and re-openings here: https://t.co/wg1CzCvHRA 2/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

But “the system is not likely to break down”:

But while plant closures may lead to temporary meat shortages, the system is not likely to break down—despite the severity of current challenges.@JessTiaFu and @hclaire_brown explain why here: https://t.co/ITRSamRXhm 3/ pic.twitter.com/2RzhMW3XKw — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

“First, there is no shortage of meat destined for the grocery store shelf”:

First, there is no shortage of meat destined for the grocery store shelf. It might take stores longer than usual to restock certain products, due to supply chain disruptions. But we have many millions of pounds of meat in cold storage across the nation. 4/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

There’s already a lot of meat in cold storage. For example:

Case in point: Pork loins in cold storage reached an all-time high this year—nearly 50 million pounds, the most since records started to be kept in 1960. (Source: https://t.co/oXceAFHuA3) These frozen stockpiles will make up for any lost processing capacity in the short term. 5/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

Prices, however, will eventually rise:

Workers face real fear for their health and safety. As long as that’s true, current slaughter capacity will be limited. The cost of labor will rise, and eventually retail prices will, too. #tysonfoods 6/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

Here’s where the bottleneck is:

Right now, there is no lack of animals to process. With plants closed, farmers and ranchers have fewer markets to sell into—so the slaughterhouses that remain open are likely to see supply gluts. 7/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

And there’s the restaurant/retail issue:

Then there’s the tangled logistics. There’s plenty of meat on hand that was headed to restaurants and commercial foodservice. It’ll take some time for meatpackers to convert bulk products into portion sizes the general public can work with. 8/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

The supply chains just aren’t very “nimble”:

We’ve reported on Too Big to Pivot issues in the grain, dairy, and produce industries, too. It’s a vulnerability laid bare by this pandemic: Huge, top-down supply chains may be ruthlessly efficient, but they’re not nimble. https://t.co/982CmF2ug5 9/ pic.twitter.com/z2dM5SifPK — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

Some small businesses have made the switch, however:

Smaller businesses have different vulnerabilities—and while they face challenges, too, some have managed to pivot quickly enough to keep product on the shelves. https://t.co/uYhEAwvcLX 10/ pic.twitter.com/I2IlzPM4Du — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

“Hangups at the largest, most crowded plants don’t mean the whole system is in trouble”:

It’s distressing to see big meatpackers in flux, because just 4 of them dominate 80% of the supply chain. But they’re not the *entire* supply chain. Hangups at the largest, most crowded plants don’t mean the whole system is in trouble.

11/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

In summary, stop the panic:

Companies like Tyson have been hit hard by Covid-19. But they are also powerful, with plenty of cash (and vast warehouses of frozen meat) on hand. They may be struggling now, but they have the political, financial, and infrastructural resources they’ll need to survive.

end/ — The Counter (@TheCounter) April 27, 2020

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