by Brett Chandrasekhar

Tonight at 9 PM, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will appear in the much-anticipated first presidential debate. Understandably, the media and public alike are wondering how the contest will go down.

Many commentators are giving Clinton the advantage, arguing Trump has coasted till this point by being part of debates with several contestants. A one-on-one, they say, will require much more than what he’s shown so far.

While this is true, it misses the bigger picture: the type of content discussed during the event. If it’s about policy, Clinton will win. But if it’s about the personalities involved, Trump will take it easily.

Let me first clarify what I mean by the latter. A discussion about the “personalities involved” is NOT just limited to personal attacks, e.g. “lying Ted,” “low-energy Jeb,” or (more relevant tonight) “crooked Hillary.” It also includes topics with some intersection with policy, such as Clinton’s vote on Iraq, or her political history in general. These “experience”-type topics are more about the candidates themselves than their platforms.

As long as the discussion is centered here, Trump will have the advantage.

But if the debate instead focuses on the intricacies of policy, the particular facts and details of their proposals, Clinton will have the edge. She has decades of knowledge and experience here that someone outside the political sphere cannot learn in a matter of months.

With that in mind, it’ll be silly for Trump to try to take her on in that arena. It’d be like a white belt trying to take on a black belt, or a chess amateur trying to take on a grandmaster. However, Trump has intelligently been focusing his preparation on one liners and sound-bytes rather than policy.

Likewise, it’d be silly for Hillary to use rhetoric like she has been in previous weeks, e.g., calling Trump (or even worse, his supporters) racist, bigoted, etc. This sort of language will just give Trump an excuse to attack her back. In the audience’s mind, he will be justified since Clinton struck first. And if Clinton gets down in the mud with him, she will lose.

That will be the most interesting question of the night. Can Clinton keep the debate focused on policy? Or will she succumb to the siren call of anti-racist rhetoric?

Also relevant: can Trump stay vague on content while waiting for “personality” topics where he’ll shine?

And how will the moderators interact with this theme? Will they ask policy-related questions or will they incentivize the personal? All of this will determine the winner of the debate.

Who do you think will win?

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