CALGARY—With the United Conservative Party mired in scandal and the governing NDP facing intense criticism over its balance sheet, Alberta’s election may hinge on the choice between honesty and economic policy.

Premier Rachel Notley called the election in Calgary on Tuesday, marking April 16 as voting day. Though the UCP has had a strong lead in early polls, its campaign is beginning under a cloud of subterfuge, with the party and leader Jason Kenney fielding questions about whether Kenney used another candidate to torpedo his main rival in the party’s 2017 leadership race.

“I think it’s going to have an impact, the question is how much,” said Lori Williams, a policy studies professor at Mount Royal University.

“Do people care about ethics and principles ... or are they so angry at the NDP, that (the economy is) their primary consideration?”

Already, the parties’ war of ideas is apparent. Notley’s campaign launch speech Tuesday focused on restoring trust in government, while Kenney’s messaging hammered on Notley’s economic policy, an area where conservative parties tend to get more traction.

Over the weekend, the Star and other outlets obtained a document leak that showed Kenney’s staff oversaw critical aspects of Jeff Callaway’s 2017 UCP leadership campaign — his communications strategy, attack ads, when Callaway would drop out of the race, and even his concession speech. Callaway spent much of his campaign targeting former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean, Kenney’s biggest rival, before dropping out and endorsing Kenney.

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The leak came after months of allegations that Kenney had run Callaway as a “kamikaze” candidate, and that Callaway’s campaign had been fuelled by illegal donations. The documents cast doubt on Kenney’s previous denials that he wasn’t involved with the Callaway campaign.

Then, in a Maclean’s magazine report Monday, a former Callaway staffer alleged the campaign was funded in part by a $60,000 payment from a corporate entity, which was redistributed to appear as if it came from several donors. (The allegations haven’t been proven, but Alberta’s election commissioner fined one Callaway donor in late February for giving money to the campaign that wasn’t hers.)

The RCMP and the election commissioner are currently investigating.

Kenney has repeatedly denied knowing anything about the Callaway campaign’s finances, and the UCP said it’s “perfectly normal” for campaigns to communicate. Callaway hasn’t responded to the Star’s requests for comment, but told Maclean’s he fully denies the allegations.

It’s impossible to fully predict the outcome of any vote — especially one in Alberta, where the past two provincial elections have been marked by dramatic twists in the final days. But we do have clues about the values playing into voters’ decisions, said Jared Wesley, a political science professor at the University of Alberta.

“The research that I’ve seen suggests that Albertans want their leaders to be honest and to be in it for the right reasons,” Wesley said. “So to the extent these questions are affecting Albertans’ views of (Kenney) as a leader, that could be problematic.”

Kenney’s responses to the kamikaze allegations have centred around the idea that “this is how politics are done,” which fits well with the tough branding that the former federal MP has cultivated, said Wesley.

“I guess where the conservatives might be a little bit more concerned is whether this affects his image as an honest leader.”

Integrity is especially crucial because concerns about cronyism are what led the Wildrose Party to split off from the Progressive Conservative Party, a major factor in the NDP’s 2015 win. When the two conservative parties reunited in 2017 to form the UCP, the Wildrosers did so with the understanding that the new party’s leadership would listen to its grassroots and stick to an ethical path, said Williams.

If it appears the UCP leadership is going back on that, it may lead to another split, Williams added. “Former PCs and former Wildrosers might actually be happy to go to another party under certain circumstances. So there’s so much that’s unpredictable here.”

Though Williams said she has heard concerns about whether the affair is too complex for voters to understand, she said she disagrees. “I think there’s been enough news on it that people are probably aware,” she said. “I think it’s raising questions.”

If — and it’s a big if — the UCP begins to lose support, former PCs could be more aligned with the centre-right Alberta Party. Ex-Wildrosers might be more drawn to the upstart Freedom Conservative Party, led by controversial ex-Wildrose MLA Derek Fildebrandt, who was booted from the UCP after several scandals. In that case, a split conservative vote could deny all parties the chance at a majority government, Williams said.

As more stories and leaks about the scandal dominate the election conversation, the more potential for trouble there is for the UCP, said Williams, calling it a “drip” of cumulative damage rather than an explosion.

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Wesley expressed a similar idea — Canadian conservative parties are known for their tightly controlled and highly effective messaging plans, but ongoing questions about the party’s ethics “kind of just detract from that,” he said.

However, he also said many pollsters have decided not to work on the Alberta election this time, as dynamic provincial races have proven hard to predict in recent years. So, barring any new methods — he has a research team trying to analyze social media conversations — the true impact of the kamikaze affair might not be clear until election day.

“All of that being said, if I’m looking for a specific point during the campaign ... I’d poll right before and right after the leadership debate,” he said. “In Alberta last time, that was a pivotal moment.”

Emma McIntosh is an environment, justice and investigative reporter with Star Calgary. Follow her on Twitter at @EmmaMci

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