Asheville elections: Geography = fate? North wins, south not

ASHEVILLE – If you map out the candidates for this year's City Council primary race, it's a scatter shot that hits all the populated points — the center, north, south, east and west.

The 16 contenders include a candidate from the burgeoning River Arts District and another from a longtime African-American neighborhood.

But history shows that of those candidates, those living in a particular slice of the city have the best chance.

Over the last decade, one powerful part of Asheville, the north, has produced more winners than all other regions combined, according to an analysis by the Citizen-Times.

Since 2005, traditionally blue-collar West Asheville has seen the political wind blow more in its favor. But the shortage of elected officials from all other areas has raised questions about the need to find more voices.

"Every council member will tell you they serve the whole city and most try to do so," said Chris Pelly, the only council member to serve from the east in at least a decade.

"I believe, however, the council member who passes through the same area each day will no doubt be more aware of the needs, the people and the culture of that region of the city and therefore a better representative and advocate," Pelly said.

Some have called for reworking the way residents pick their leaders. Others, though, say that geographic favoritism doesn't play into council decisions and that shifting growth patterns may drive changes anyway.

The breakdown: Northern dominance

Council members are elected at-large, meaning they can be from anywhere in the city. That is different from a district-based election in which candidates must live in a certain region and are elected by residents of that region. There are also hybrid systems that combine both at-large and district elements.

In the Citizen-Times analysis, election wins were counted, not individuals. That means that a regional candidate who won two elections, for example, was counted twice.

Over the last 10 years, there have been 29 candidates from North Asheville and Montford, home to many old, wealthy neighborhoods. Thirteen of those candidates won their races, including one mayor, Esther Manheimer.

In the 2011 election, all eight candidates, except Pelly from Haw Creek, lived in the north.

The second-highest producer of winners is West Asheville, an area once known for its blue-collar grittiness and the moniker "Worst Asheville."

In the last decade, 11 candidates came from there. Four of them won. Those were former Mayor Terry Bellamy, who won twice, and Councilman Gordon Smith, who also won both his elections.

The east, including Oakley and Haw Creek, have had six candidates and one winner.

Other areas, including downtown, Kenilworth and the historically black neighborhoods of Southside and East End-Valley Street, all had one to three candidates, but no winners.

South Asheville, an area seeing recent high growth, had three candidates and no winners.

Money + identity

Having a solid sense of community, feeling engaged and having money are main factors in explaining the dominance of one region, said political observers, including past candidates.

In some cases, there were concerted efforts by one neighborhood to back a local candidate, observers said.

But more often the results were unintentional. People of similar ideology, outlook and income drifted together, clustering in one area.

"I think North Asheville is a more established neighborhood area," said former Mayor Charles Worley, a northern resident who served until 2005. "More established in the sense that people tend to have a longer connection to Asheville and perhaps have a civic mindedness to get out and run."

Because many of those residents are wealthy, they have more time to spend on civic activities, such as politics, Worley said.

That also means they have more money to spend on their elections, said former candidate Juma Jackson.

Disconnected

Jackson lived in the north as a university student and later in the south. One of the few black candidates in recent history, he lived in East End when he ran in 2009. He was a primary winner but lost in the general election to two candidates from the north and one from the west.

"Money talks. And North Asheville is what it is," he said. "I couldn't compete with those people that won and the money that they had."

Jackson said East End residents felt disconnected to changes in the city, such as rapid growth in the city center.

"When I was living there, I never saw people come downtown from those neighborhoods. In a majority of the places downtown, they didn't feel comfortable."

The former owner of a downtown convenience store, Jackson moved to Greensboro to work and study law.

Rapid growth, no voice?

The most notable area to not have a recent council member is the south, which has seen a big share of residential and commercial construction.

In 2005, then-Councilman Joe Dunn, from the south, ran for mayor, advancing through the primary and losing eventually to Bellamy.

Local resident Charlie Hume noticed the trend and when a vacancy on council appeared in 2008, he asked the council to appoint him.

"I felt like maybe there wasn't the representation there for people a little more familiar with this area or needs in this area," Hume said.

Council members eventually settled on northern resident Kelly Miller.

Residents in the south want more recreational facilities and police, who have to navigate long stretches of crowded U.S. 25 to respond to many calls, Hume said.

There's also infrastructure, he said.

"I know residents of Oak Forest (circa 1960s) have stated that they have not seen any street resurfacing since inception," Hume said.

Mike Lanning, who was born in Asheville and ran unsuccessfully for the council in 2013, said he had been unaware of how politically active North Asheville residents were and how much the city had trended toward progressive politics.

"I think it's probably a lack of knowledge of the residents who live in South Asheville. They're not as politically motivated as the people in North Asheville are — and as the ones in West Asheville are starting to become," said Lanning, a former city police officer.

A lot of the political organizing and energy is around more left-leaning ideas, he said, and "South Asheville is a more moderate and conservative area."

Some, like Worley, say the south, while having wealth, is a more transitional area where many people have settled recently and are concentrating on jobs, leaving little time for politics.

A switch to districts?

Lanning said to get the south a voice, the city should shift to district elections.

"If you have candidate from each area, like it or not, they're going to look out for their area. And they will get better representation."

But others say that could make it difficult to get anything done.

"It would pit one district against another," Worley said.

The former mayor said he has seen the council make a great effort not to favor one district over another.

Some candidates have run as regional candidates in the past, he said, saying they would like a voice for their neighborhoods.

"But I think one of the biggest factors I've seen, wherever someone is from — it is usually someone who has become pretty well-known and respected throughout the city prior to running for council."

That's often through volunteer work with the city or with some civic organization, he said.

2015 candidates:

North Asheville: 5

West Asheville: 3

South Asheville: 3

East End-Valley Street: 1

Kenilworth: 1

RAD: 1

East Asheville, including Haw Creek: 2

2005-13 candidates:

North Asheville, including Montford: 29 candidates, 13 winners

West Asheville: 11 candidates, 4 winners

South Asheville: 3 candidates, no winners

Downtown: 2 candidates, no winners

East End-Valley Street: 1 candidate, no winners

Southside: 1 candidate, no winners

Kenilworth: 3 candidates, no winners

East Asheville, including Oakley and Haw Creek: 6 candidates, 1 winner

Note: In 2011, all eight candidates, except one, came from North Asheville.