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Taxpayers may soon feel the pinch of the government shutdown where it really hurts: their tax refunds.

Bowing to political pressure, Trump administration officials on Monday directed the Internal Revenue Service to start processing refunds. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin ordered some IRS workers back from furlough. And the IRS announced that tax filing season will start as planned on Jan. 28.

There’s a considerable amount of money at stake. Within the first week of the 2018 filing season, 18 million taxpayers had filed returns, claiming $12.6 billion in refunds, according to Bloomberg.

But how likely is it that taxpayers will get their refunds if the shutdown drags on for a few more weeks—or even months?

Not very likely.

For starters, it’s a legal gray zone whether refunds can be processed during a shutdown. Without an approved budget or Congressional funding for the Treasury Department, the IRS may not be allowed to issue checks. That was the IRS’s legal interpretation during prior shutdowns. Indeed, the law basically says that if government functions aren’t essential to protect life or property, they aren’t permitted without Congressional funding.

Read more:How the Government Shutdown Will Affect Your Taxes and Much More

The government can still pay Social Security because those payments are essential to “protect life and property,” says Steve Rosenthal, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. “But historically, the government has not viewed tax refunds as essential.”

Whether refunds go out may hinge on the interpretation of “essential.” Workers may still be paid to receive checks from taxpayers because the money is considered essential to fund certain aspects of the government. But processing checks is a “stumbling block,” says Rosenthal, because it’s tough to argue that refunds are essential for taxpayers.

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Another roadblock is labor law: The government can’t force employees to work for free. A federal employees union has already sued the Trump administration, claiming it illegally forced more than 400,000 workers back to their jobs without pay. Even if workers are forced back, they may take extra-long lunches, call in sick, or spend lots of time on their cell phones until they get paid.

Eventually, Congress will pass a bill to fund the government, and presumably it will include provisions to pay back wages. But until then, large numbers of tax refunds may go nowhere. About 80%-90% of IRS workers aren’t considered essential, Rosenthal says. And it isn’t as if the IRS chief counsel or other high-level officials who are deemed essential can start cutting checks. “These aren’t fungible positions,” he says. “You can’t put them on processing refunds.”

If there’s one saving grace for taxpayers, it’s that IRS workers, contrary to popular perceptions, actually like their jobs. Many of them are bona-fide tax geeks: They enjoy running audits, delving into complex returns, crunching numbers, and writing and interpreting tax law.

“Most IRS workers like the work and like doing taxes,” says Rosenthal. “One of my buddies is bored silly and wants to get back to work.”

Let’s hope he isn’t alone.

Write to Daren Fonda at daren.fonda@barrons.com