Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players that are most likely to win the green kacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players. Last year, I had Patrick Reed as one of my 20 players that could win the Master and he won the green jacket despite being a long shot at 40/1 odds.

Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores. This year, the projected Critical Holes are #6, #8, #13, #14 and #15.

Typically, the critical holes have been projected to be only one of the par-5s. But, the trend over the past five years now has a projection of three par-5s (#8, #13 and #15) being ‘Critical Holes’ which indicates that some added distance gains by the players may be impacting how the event is determined.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Alvaro Ortiz (a)

Devon Bling (a)

Jovan Rebula (a)

Kevin O’Connell (a)

Takumi Kanaya (a)

Victor Hovland (a)

Aaron Wise

Adam Long

Andrew Landry

Corey Conners

Eddie Pepperrell

Justin Harding

Keith Mitchell

Kevin Tway

Lucas Bjeeregaard

Matt Wallace

Michael Kim

Shugo Imahira

I also filtered out 10 past champions that I do not believe can contend at Augusta National anymore:

Angel Cabrera

Bernhard Langer

Fred Couples

Ian Woosnam

Jose Maria Olazabal

Larry Mize

Mike Weir

Sandy Lyle

Trevor Immelman

Vijay Singh

THE ZACH JOHNSON DEBATE

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always get pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par-5s more like par-4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5s, his strength.

This year, the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. There is some rain in the forecast, but softening the course tends to favor the longer hitters. However, the winds are expected to pick up a little which can help the shorter hitters, particularly those that are adept around the greens. However, I do not see the forecasted wind being enough to favor shorter hitters in this event. Thus, the following golfers have been filtered out due to not being long enough off the tee:

Brandt Snedeker

Danny Willett

Kevin Kisner

Kyle Stanley

Matt Kuchar

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Satoshi Kodaira

Webb Simpson

Zach Johnson

A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out four players for hitting the ball too low. Out of those four players, the best finish was Russell Henley at T15th. I use a combination of Max Height, Carry Distance and Launch Angle to determine if the following players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta.

Charl Schwartzel

Charles Howell III

Jimmy Walker

Martin Kaymer

Paul Casey

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Si-Woo Kim

Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.

Alex Noren

Patton Kizzire

I will also filter out the player that missed the cut at San Antonio. Historically, players that miss the cut the week prior have a substantially lower likelihood of winning the following week compared to the players that made the cut in the previous week or did not play at all.

Billy Horschel

Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, nine of the last 10 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.

The key shots where the most strokes are gained/lost at Augusta National are from the Red Zone. Last year, I had 12 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. Outside of Dustin Johnson (T-10th), almost all of those players performed poorly.

Adam Scott

Branden Grace

Cameron Smith

Emiliano Grillo

Ian Poulter

J.B. Holmes

Jason Day

Jordan Spieth

Justin Thomas

Kevin Na

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Louis Oosthuizen

Patrick Cantlay

Patrick Reed

Phil Mickelson

Stewart Cink

Thorbjorn Olesen

Tony Finau

I think the big surprise here is Justin Thomas. His Red Zone play has not been awful (108th) this season, but it not good enough in order for me to avoid filtering him out.

Now we are down to 22 golfers that can win The Masters. Their Vegas odds, which are subject to change, are listed in parentheses:

Brooks Koepka (25/1)

Bryson DeChambeau (33/1)

Bubba Watson (33/1)

Charley Hoffmann (80/1)

Dustin Johnson (10/1)

Francesco Molinari (22/1)

Gary Woodland (80/1)

Haotong Li (125/1)

Henrik Stenson (60/1)

Hideki Matsuyama (33/1)

Jon Rahm (16/1)

Justin Rose (14/1)

Keegan Bradley (125/1)

Marc Leishman (50/1)

Rickie Fowler (18/1)

Rory McIlroy (7/1)

Sergio Garcia (50/1)

Shane Lowry (150/1)

Tiger Woods (14/1)

Tommy Fleetwood (25/1)

Tyrrell Hatton (125/1)

Xander Schauffele (40/1)

Here are my personal top-10 picks:

Rory McIlroy (7/1)

Dustin Johnson (10/1)

Justin Rose (14/1)

Jon Rahm (16/1)

Francesco Molinari (22/1)

Brooks Koepka (25/1)

Tommy Fleetwood (25/1)

Bryson DeChambeau (33/1)

Marc Leishman (50/1)

Sergio Garcia (50/1)