IT WAS another gamble by Israel’s prime minister. After weeks of political infighting, Binyamin Netanyahu called for fresh elections “as soon as possible”, signalling the end of his government less than halfway through its four-year term. Just before his press conference on December 2nd, he fired his justice and finance ministers, Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid. They were disloyal, he said, and were plotting a “putsch” against him. “I am taking a risk in order to improve the governance,” he declared.

It is not the first time the prime minister has thrown the dice so as to maintain support on the right. He has infuriated the American government with relentless expansion of Jewish settlements; he has stood by as radicals, including members of the Likud party, made provocative visits to pray atop the Temple Mount (where Muslim holy places were built on the ruins of the ancient Jewish temple); and, after years of inaction, suddenly pushed a controversial bill to declare Israel the “national state of the Jewish people”, which would relegate non-Jewish citizens to a secondary status. Centrist ministers, including Ms Livni and Mr Lapid, voted against it in cabinet and threatened to leave the coalition when it came to a vote in the Knesset.

A meeting between Mr Netanyahu and Mr Lapid on December 1st to save the coalition ended badly. Mr Lapid rejected an ultimatum to back the bill and drop his signature economic initiative, a scheme to exempt first-time homebuyers from value-added tax. So on December 3rd the Knesset approved a preliminary motion to dissolve itself, with a final vote on December 8th. The election will be on March 17th.

The break-up coincides with the first economic contraction in five years and a rash of deadly Palestinian attacks. Yet the current infighting is not about either of these issues. Nor is it about peace talks with Palestinians, defunct since the latest round of American-brokered talks collapsed in April. Instead the campaign will be dominated by questions of personality, not least whether the once-cautious prime minister remains a safe pair of hands. “At the end of the day, these elections are all about a referendum on Bibi,” says Amit Segal, an analyst for Israel’s Channel 2.

Israel HaYom

, a free daily with a strong pro-Netanyahu line financed by Sheldon Adelson, an American casino magnate. Many “yes” votes came from coalition supporters. Then there was what Mr Netanyahu called the putsch. Rumours have circulated for weeks that Mr Lapid and Yitzhak Herzog, the Labour Party leader, were plotting to form an alternative coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties. The two men dismissed the talk, saying that they would not enter a new government before an election.

Mr Netanyahu remained fearful of a surprise, so he took a bet on an early poll. He was no doubt reassured by recent opinion-poll numbers showing Likud winning a plurality of between 22 and 24 of the 120 seats. The second-largest block would be the right-wing Jewish Home, headed by his most loyal ally of the moment, Naftali Bennett. Two other trends are encouraging Mr Netanyahu: an increasingly right-wing electorate and a fragmented political map, especially among middle-class voters in and around Tel Aviv, who back a new party that emerges with each election.

Last year it was Mr Lapid’s Yesh Atid, which ran promises to help small businesses, cut subsidies to the ultra-Orthodox and pay conscript soldiers a minimum wage. He surprised pollsters by coming second. This time it will be Moshe Kahlon, a former communications minister and Likud member. Mr Kahlon has done no campaigning, has not chosen a list of candidates or even named his new party. Yet polls have him winning 10-12 seats. His main political achievement was to reform the mobile-phone market and drive down prices, for which he remains popular.

It is hard to see any politician on the centre-left emerging as a viable candidate for prime minister. Mr Herzog is regarded as bland and uninspiring. The articulate and feisty Ms Livni may be past her political peak. Mr Lapid is tarnished, with little to show for his two years as finance minister. Leading economists panned his VAT exemption scheme, calling it a costly measure that would do nothing to increase the supply of housing, the underlying reason for high prices.

Other variables could upset the balance. Three parties that represent Palestinian citizens of Israel are discussing a unity deal. The threshold to enter the Knesset has been raised from 2% of the vote to 3.25%. If they run alone all three could be pushed out of the Knesset; together they might make up the fourth-largest group. Meanwhile Avigdor Lieberman, the right-wing foreign minister, is hedging his bets. He broke his party’s unity pact with Likud earlier this year, and seems to be tacking toward the centre, releasing a “peace plan” last week that endorsed a two-state solution. Yet it is Mr Netanyahu—denounced abroad, under attack at home, accused of having no vision for Israel and more impulsive than in the past—who remains the person to beat.