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His stint as immigration minister, from 2008 to 2013, was marked by an across-the board tightening of federal refugee and immigration policy, concurrent with a big increase in Tory support among new Canadians. Not an easy trick to pull off.

That said, Kenney is entering the unknown. Alberta’s provincial conservative movement is a notorious meat-grinder, having chewed up and spat out three former stars — Prentice, former Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, former premier Alison Redford — in as many years. Jean, the Wildrose leader who lost his home in the Fort McMurray fire, is no slouch. Even assuming PC and Wildrose members can be persuaded to merge, in a contest between Jean and Kenney, the outcome is uncertain. The lesson of Prentice, a superstar until he wasn’t, is that there are no foregone conclusions.

The larger question, therefore, is this: Why is Kenney leaving federal politics now?

He is known to have aspired to the national Conservative party leadership for years. He has networked like a fiend, been a staunch campaigner, friend and fundraiser for fellow MPs, carved out a clear brand for himself on the ideological right of his party, in social, economic and foreign policy. Though he’d be no shoo-in for the federal leadership, to be sure — the Liberals have let it be known they’d love to face him in 2019 — Kenney would have his pick of senior ministries in a future Conservative government. He is said by colleagues to have long coveted Finance. Why not stick around and be kingmaker for the next permanent Tory leader, to be chosen in the spring of 2017?