“It’s possible to sign Chris Jones long-term.”

Many Kansas City Chiefs fans have heard that statement over the course of the offseason, and the statement is correct. The Chiefs can sign Chris Jones to a long-term deal, but the devil is in the details about why it could make the future a bit tight.

This version of the Chiefs' future includes Patrick Mahomes on a mega-deal, and with some other lesser-known factors, the Chiefs could be working with very little room for error in the short-term, and possibly for the long-term as well.

When considering a large long-term deal, a team must consider what other players are coming up for a contract in the near future. If the Chiefs have multiple large-money deals taking up cap space, they might not be able to re-sign higher-priority players at more important positions. For example, this caused issues this offseason with the Dallas Cowboys letting Byron Jones hit free agency after giving out long term deals to players like Ezekiel Elliot.

Patrick Mahomes’ mega-deal is the obvious upcoming contract for the Chiefs.

Other than Mahomes, there are some other players that will soon be free agents for the Chiefs. Sammy Watkins, Bashaud Breeland, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Daniel Sorensen, Mike Pennel, and Austin Reiter are key free agents after the 2020 season. After the 2021 season Travis Kelce, Mitchell Schwartz, Eric Fisher, and Tyrann Mathieu are scheduled to be free agents. The Chiefs will let some of these players walk, but some will need to be brought back. In bringing those players back, the Chiefs will have to think about how they fit in with a Chris Jones long-term deal.

Along with considering players coming up for new deals, many fans forget that, when looking at future cap space for their team, one major money-sapping variable is that teams don’t have many depth players under contract. Even though these depth player contracts are of lower value, with $610k being the minimum contract in 2020, they do add up. Add 10 more depth players to a roster and it will at least cost $6 million against the cap, and probably more than that.

The average number of players under contract for 2021 league-wide is roughly 33 players. The Chiefs currently have 28 players under contract in 2021, and only seven teams have fewer players under contract for 2021 than the Chiefs do. When Brett Veach looks into the future, he will need to remember this fact even more. Sure, the 2023 cap space looks great, but when any NFL team only has eight players under contract, it will always look great.

It is also worth remembering that cap space is always in flux. With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, the NFL is entering a time where the cap can skyrocket year over year by a huge amount.

The cap also fluctuates in another way many fans forget. Teams can carry over unused cap space year-to-year. This is one reason teams with a lot of big deals struggle to find cap space. Constantly being up against the cap means that there is no leftover cap space to carry over into the next year.

How easily the Chiefs can fit a long term contract for Chris Jones into their cap will depend on how high the cap will go, due to the new CBA, and when they can sign Jones. Sign Jones this offseason and the cap soars next year? It will probably be pretty easy to keep him. Sign Jones next year and the cap increase is dampened because of COVID-19? It would require some cap magic from Veach. Regardless, the Chiefs will be operating with very little cap rollover in a world with Jones and Mahomes under long-term deals, so Veach’s cap management will continue to be put to the test for a while.

So is it possible to sign Chris Jones long-term, even considering the factors surrounding long-term deals? Of course it’s possible. Brett Veach will have less margin for error in acquiring new talent than most GM’s in the league, but considering the fact that he has a great talent pool to build around, with Jones and Mahomes under long-term deals, it isn’t a bad way to construct the future of the Chiefs.