WITH HALF the world’s population under some form of lockdown to slow the spread of covid-19, most activities have been dramatically curtailed, including illegal ones. Official figures suggest that crime has plummeted in many big cities. Violent crime, including murder, rape and assault, has fallen even more sharply. But as lockdowns began, campaigners sounded warnings that domestic violence—a crime committed in private, in people’s homes—would become more, not less, frequent. Those fears appear to have been borne out.

An analysis by The Economist of data from five big American cities indicates that although most types of crime have indeed fallen in recent weeks, reports of domestic violence have increased. Sifting through over 100,000 reports from police departments in Chicago, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Memphis and New Orleans, which all went into lockdown between March 19th and 24th, we estimate that total crime soon fell by 25%, compared with the week ending on March 1st. However, reports of domestic violence increased by 5%. (Because crimes follow a marked weekly pattern, our chart shows seven-day averages.)

How far this reflects the true picture is unclear. In normal times, crimes are often reported well after the fact. Even then, it can take time for them to be processed and show up in official statistics. In Chicago, for instance, one in ten alleged crimes recorded in January and February had taken place more than a week before. This delay means that reported crime falls the closer it comes to the present day. (Our chart has a dotted line for the last 14 days of available data to indicate this effect.) In these abnormal times, the lag may be longer, as police officers struggle to impose lockdowns while trying to avoid contracting the disease. In Chicago, hundreds of officers have been diagnosed with covid-19; three have died.

Domestic violence is thought to be one of the most under-reported crimes. In lockdown, it may be even more so. Forced to stay with a violent family member or partner, it may be more difficult, if not dangerous, for victims to seek help when the abuser is always around. Data provided by Denmark’s national domestic-violence hotline, Lev Uden Vold (Life Without Violence), show that in the week after the country’s lockdown began, total call volumes fell by 15%, while calls about emergency shelters—typically from people asking for a place to stay immediately—rose sharply.

Some governments have taken action. In Denmark, the authorities have set up additional temporary shelters to deal with the surge in requests. In France, where reports of domestic violence have risen by 30%, they can visit newly created drop-in centres near supermarkets, or stay in a hotel room at the government’s expense. In Spain, those who would like to report violence at home discreetly can visit a pharmacy and give the code word “Mask 19”. The pharmacist will then alert the authorities.

Correction (April 23rd 2020): A previous version of this article stated that calls to Denmark’s national domestic-violence hotline fell by more than 50% in the week after the country’s lockdown began. In fact they fell by 15%. This has been corrected.