MADRID — Pedro Sánchez’s love affair with Catalan separatists is over.

Spain’s prime minister has hardened his tone against secessionist leaders, warning any unconstitutional action taken in Catalonia would be met with a “firm but even-tempered, proportionate and robust” response.

“This government,” Sánchez said in parliament on Wednesday, “won’t accept a new breach of constitutional order.”

Sánchez’s words followed recent calls by Catalan President Quim Torra for citizens to emulate the Slovenian path to independence, street protests by radical groups in Catalonia, and an electoral setback for the ruling Socialists in a regional election in Andalusia.

“To defend, as the Catalan independence [movement] does, the Kosovo path, the Slovenian path, shows … the desperation of those who don’t have any argument left other than lies to sustain their political positions,” the Spanish leader said.

“The Slovenians decided to push ahead with all the consequences. Let’s do like them and let’s be willing to do anything to live freely” — Quim Torra

Speaking to lawmakers, Sánchez accused Catalan authorities in charge of the regional police of “unjustifiable inaction” during street protests over the weekend and added Madrid will send national police to the region if this attitude persists.

The Socialist leader also compared — as he has done in the past — the Catalan independence push with Brexit, saying advocates of both had “a narrative of invented and magnified affronts,” forcing citizens to unnecessarily choose between being European and British, or Catalan and Spanish.

While the Spanish prime minister left the door open to further dialogue with Catalan separatist groups, reiterated his willingness to tackle the crisis via increased autonomy, and called on pro-independence lawmakers to back the government’s budget proposal for 2019, his speech was widely seen as a turning point in his premiership — and a potential sign of a coming general election.

“You may have started the electoral campaign today,” said Joan Tardà, the speaker in parliament of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), one of the two biggest pro-independence parties.

Sánchez can call a national ballot whenever he wants until the summer of 2020, but many observers and politicians predict he will do so sometime next year.

Fragile grip on power

The Socialist leader seized power in June after launching a confidence vote in the conservative Mariano Rajoy which was backed — among others — by Catalan pro-independence lawmakers in the Spanish Congress. Since then, Sánchez’s minority government has adopted a softer approach than Rajoy to secessionist leaders in Catalonia and relied on the support of pro-independence parties to pass some bills in parliament.

Sánchez has withdrawn judicial appeals against Catalan laws filed by the previous government, has reactivated bilateral talks with Catalan officials which hadn’t been held since 2011 as well as reaching agreements in areas such as infrastructure and public services. Sánchez’s ministers have also advocated for Catalan officials in pre-trial detention to be released and left the door open to granting them pardons if they are sentenced.

“Ibuprofen politics,” is how Foreign Minister Josep Borrell described it at a public event in Madrid on Wednesday.

Yet caught between the attacks of the right-wing opposition over his softer tone on Catalonia and the ongoing defiant attitude of separatist leaders, Sánchez’s attempts to rule the country with the backing of just 84 Socialist lawmakers in the 350-strong Congress is proving every bit as difficult as many predicted when he seized power — and Wednesday’s session in parliament was proof of the PM’s isolation.

Tardà urged Sánchez to negotiate a referendum on independence for the region — something the government has ruled out repeatedly — warning of the consequences if he didn’t. “Unfortunately,” Tardà said, “you’re going to push us to disobedience again.”

For the opposite reason, Sánchez was met with fierce attacks from the conservative Popular Party (PP) and the liberal Ciudadanos, who urged him to impose direct rule on Catalonia and call an early election.

PP leader Pablo Casado portrayed Sánchez as a “hostage” of independence forces and urged him to act. “Your partner Torra wants to balkanize Spain,” he told the Socialist leader. “What more needs to happen in Catalonia for you to do something?”

Ciudadanos head Albert Rivera told Sánchez that he will be the shortest-lived prime minister in the country's history, and warned: “If there is one dead in Catalonia ... you will be responsible.”

More worrying for Sánchez is that these attacks have proven an effective electoral weapon against him. Last week, his party lost ground in a regional ballot in Andalusia, which was marked by the rise of the far right party Vox. The Socialist leader of the southern region, Susana Díaz, blamed the Catalan issue for her loss of support. Other Socialist officials have voiced fears that the issue will take a toll on them when they face local and regional ballots next May.

“If citizens perceive that you rely on the support of pro-independence parties, it does have a cost,” said a senior Socialist official who wanted to remain anonymous. The official added it would have been better if Sánchez had called an election just after seizing power instead of attempting to rule the country with the backing of Catalan separatists.

Times of crisis

Catalan officials last year triggered Spain’s gravest constitutional crisis in decades when they pressed ahead with an outlawed referendum on secession and a unilateral declaration of independence. Soon after, Madrid seized direct control of the region and sacked the whole Catalan cabinet led by Carles Puigdemont. A regional election last December resulted in a new pro-independence government in Barcelona.

Meanwhile, the judiciary has indicted many of the officials allegedly responsible for the independence push. Eighteen lawmakers, government officials and civic leaders will face trial before the Supreme Court, expected to begin early next year. Nine of them are in pre-trial detention and four of them started a hunger strike early this month.

Current Catalan President Torra has maintained defiant rhetoric against the Spanish state, and it escalated over the weekend.

“The Slovenians decided to push ahead with all the consequences. Let’s do like them and let’s be willing to do anything to live freely,” Torra said at an event in Brussels on Saturday.

#President @QuimTorraiPla: "Els catalans hem perdut la por. No ens fan por. No hi ha marxa enrere en el camí cap a la llibertat. Els eslovens van decidir tirar endavant amb totes les conseqüències. Fem com ells i estiguem disposats a tot per viure lliures" — Govern. Generalitat (@govern) December 8, 2018

Slovenia seceded from Yugoslavia in 1991 after a unilateral declaration of independence and a brief war.

Torra on Wednesday argued in the regional parliament that he wasn't referring to the violent parts of the Slovenian path to secession — saying that the Catalan independence movement has been “civic, peaceful and democratic.”

Last week, Torra also criticized his own regional police after they charged separatist demonstrators in Barcelona to prevent them from clashing with a rally called by Vox.

After that, a radical, pro-independence grassroots network called Committees for the Defense of the Republic (CDRs) took to the streets — and this time the regional police didn’t take them on.

The separatist camp appears divided. Some want to push forward with confrontation. Others, without renouncing independence in the longer term, would rather calm things down.

The struggle has been a constant of the Catalan independence movement — and it’s generally the hardliners who’ve prevailed.

A pro-independence lawmaker who counts himself among the moderates said Torra is betting on a civil uprising, but warned that Madrid would be unwise to overreact as it did last year when Rajoy sent in riot police to crash the referendum.

A test of how far Torra is willing to go, and what Madrid’s response is going to be, could come as soon as next week. Sánchez plans to hold his weekly Cabinet meeting on December 21 in Barcelona, rather than Madrid as usual. The CDRs and other groups have called big demonstrations, roadblocks and the occupation of public buildings in response.

Sánchez’s gesture, designed to show off his commitment to the “territorial diversity” and “decentralization” of the country, could end up spoiled by protests or even trigger chaos in the region.

Madrid has demanded that Torra keep things calm.

“There’s a group willing to increase tension and I don’t know if they will succeed,” is how one senior Socialist official put it.

“But let’s not be mistaken,” he argued, “all the previous steps [taken by the central government to reduce tensions] give it reasons to act with firmness.”