2013 College football countdown | No. 76: Nevada

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

Former Nevada coach Chris Ault leaves behind a legacy as not just an offensive innovator but an innovator, period, someone who did as much to change the way college football is played as any coaching peer over the past three decades.

One: The Pistol offense. Ault drew up the offensive scheme in 2005, one year after his second out-of-retirement return to save the program he helped build and nurture over his 41-year association with the university. The Wolf Pack would reach the postseason in each of the next eight seasons; as we head into the 2013 season, the Pistol is in vogue on all levels of football.

Two: The middle screen. Ault and the Wolf Pack developed this current offensive mainstay in 1981, using the play to get the ball to skill players in space while flummoxing an over-aggressive defense.

Three: Overtime rules. While college football abandoned the tie in 1996, Ault championed and developed the current overtime format way back in 1981, when Nevada was part of the Big Sky Conference. What changed in 15 years? Ault thought possession should begin at the 15-yard line, not the 25.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

The reasons to like the Wolf Pack are simple, and most revolve around what should be another top-flight offensive attack. But the defense is an issue, and it's the one reason why unlike in 2010, Nevada is not going to make major noise on a national level. That's the worry with Nevada: that this wonderful offense and promising back seven are waylaid by a very questionable defensive front. By and large, you're looking at a team with clear nine-win ability. That's probably the ceiling, given that this defense will likely be unreliable all season, but Nevada has the ability to simple outscore every team on this schedule. Eight wins is the safe bet, but keep an eye on Fajardo and this offense – it could be the best group on the non-BCS conference level.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: A far better team than the final record indicated, albeit one that, as expected, was let down on more than one occasion by an unreliable defense. The offense remained potent: Nevada scored at least 31 points in every game but one, a loss to Boise State, and again finished in the top 10 nationally in yards per game. In fact, last year's offense might have been the most balanced – in terms of a run-pass split – as any of Ault's tenure, even if not nearly as explosive as any of the Colin Kaepernick-led versions. The blame for Nevada's inability to challenge Boise State and others in the Mountain West Conference falls solely on the feet of the defense, which finished in the bottom half of the MWC in all four major categories. This defense allowed 12 or more points in the fourth quarter in four of the Wolf Pack's six losses.

— High point: A 31-14 win over California in the opener felt great, even if the Bears' terrible play over the course of 2012 took some bloom off the rose.

— Low point: An overtime loss to San Diego State on Oct. 20 and a 49-48 loss to Arizona in New Mexico Bowl sandwiched Nevada's second-half swoon. In the latter, the Wolf Pack allowed 21 points in the fourth quarter and 14 in the final 46 seconds. Special consideration goes to a 32-31 loss to South Florida in September, when Nevada made B.J. Daniels look like Joe Montana.

— Tidbit: Nevada has finished in the top 10 nationally in total offense in each of the last six seasons. The program's lowest finish over this span came in 2007, when it finished tied with Oregon for 10th in the FBS. The history: Nevada finished 10th in 2007, fifth in 2008, second in 2009, fourth in 2010, sixth in 2011 and eighth a season ago.

— Tidbit (Ault edition): Chris Ault was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2002, seven years after his second retirement and two years before his impressive return. Last season saw Ault pass an extremely significant milestone: His team's win over New Mexico on Nov. 17 gave Ault 233 career wins, the most of any FBS coach at his alma mater. Ault retired with one more win than Alabama's Bear Bryant.

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 18: S Jonathon Amaya (Arizona), OG Chris Barker (Miami), WR Nate Burleson (Detroit), LB Kaelin Burnett (Oakland), OG Harvey Dahl (St. Louis), CB Isaiah Frye (Chicago), TE Virgil Green (Denver), LB Jeremiah Green (Jacksonville), LB James-Michael Johnson (Cleveland), QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco), LB Brandon Marshall (Jacksonville), WR Rishard Matthews (Miami), LB Josh Mauga (New York Jets), LB Dontay Moch (Cincinnati), WR Tray Session (Oakland), TE Zach Sudfeld (New England), S Duke Williams (Buffalo), CB Khalid Wooten (Tennessee).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— Weakest careers post-AL Rookie of the Year (1992-2002)

1. Bob Hamelin, 1994

2. Pat Listach, 1992

3. Ben Grieve, 1998

4. Marty Cordova, 1995

5. Eric Hinske, 2002

COACHING

— Brian Polian (John Carroll '97), entering his first season. For the first time since 2003 and the fourth time since 1976, Nevada has a coach other than Chris Ault – and Polian, like Jeff Horton, Jeff Tisdale and Chris Tormey before him, steps into some large shoes. But unlike his predecessors, Polian has the luxury of putting his imprint on this proud program without Ault looking over his shoulder; Ault was the school's athletic director for the above trio, and each loss seemed to bring Ault closer and closer in the rearview mirror.

Polian literally helped write the official book on special teams – A Complete Guide to Special Teams, published in 2004. It's this expertise in the overlooked art of returns, coverage, blocks and two-point conversions that Polian has made his mark, beginning with a three-year stint at Buffalo from 2001-3 and continuing with a single season at UCF in 2004. Polian's career took off a year later, when he began the first of five seasons under Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. It was over this stint that Polian began to develop a reputation as a hard-charging, never-quit recruiter, helping the Fighting Irish accumulate top-ranked recruiting classes over nearly the entirety of Weis' tenure. After Notre Dame flipped staffs, Polian coached at Stanford for two years (2010-11) before spending last season at Texas A&M.

Rarely do special teams coordinators land this sort of opportunity – though that's silly, since coordinators like Polian are often more aware of how to manage a roster's strengths and weaknesses than any assistant coach. But what attracted Nevada to Polian isn't merely his experience but the quality of his experience: Polian has worked under the microscope at Notre Dame and under coaches like Jim Harbaugh, David Shaw and Kevin Sumlin. Nevada didn't necessarily see a coach with game-changing schemes – outside of special teams – but rather a coach with the knowledge needed to mold a well-stocked roster into a consistent unit.

— Tidbit (coaching edition): Polian retained three of Ault's assistants, including offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Nick Rolovich, signaling a continuation of the Ault-era offensive philosophies. Another holdover, Mike Bradeson, will step down as defensive coordinator and coach the Pack's safeties; Nevada's new defensive coordinator is former USC linebackers coach Scottie Hazelton, who has prior coordinator experience. Polian's staff also includes some prior head coach experience: Jim Hofher, the assistant head coach and wide receivers coach, led Cornell from 1990-97 and Buffalo from 2001-5.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: The offensive coordinator returns, as do the quarterback and the top wide receiver, but it's with a slight degree of trepidation that Nevada's offense moves forward without Ault's brilliant touch. Can Nevada thrive after the coaching change? Well, yeah. While the Pack might struggle at times with in-game adjustments, the system is so ingrained within this program as to ensure another run among the most productive offenses in college football. The biggest key, in fact, lies with personnel: Nevada has suffered some key losses, and how well the new staff replaces these contributors will decide the offense's overall effectiveness.

Junior quarterback Cody Fajardo is about to leap out of Colin Kaepernick's shadow. Leap, mind you, and not just walk: Fajardo has developed into a picture-perfect fit for the Pistol, showing terrific consistency in Nevada's short passing game – 2,786 yards, 20 touchdowns, .670 completion percentage – while grinding out 1,121 yards and 12 scores on the ground. He did so in his first season as the Pack's full-time starter, and did so while missing all or parts of two games due to injury. I estimated last summer that Fajardo would hover around 3,000 yards of total offense with 30 touchdowns; he went for nearly 4,000 yards and 32 scores. The next step is up, up, up: Fajardo, if healthy, will put together a monster junior season. There are not many dual-threat quarterbacks capable of mirroring Fajardo's multifaceted skill set, nor many other teams that can match Nevada's overall depth at the position.

The Pack also have an all-conference wide receiver in senior Brandon Wimberly (70 receptions for 845 yards), who hurdled a potentially career-ending injury earlier in 2011 to become one of the most consistent receivers in the FBS. Between Wimberly and juniors Richy Turner (60 for 752) and Aaron Bradley (45 for 467), Nevada's receivers – just the receivers – might trail only Fresno State's group as the best in the Mountain West. The concern, though a survivable one, is the loss of Zach Sudfeld at tight end. Either the Pack shifts away from the tight end, which isn't preferable, or seniors Kolby Arendse (13 for 196) and Stephen Jeffers combine to replace Sudfeld's production. While depth at receiver might be a question mark today, Nevada did add five receivers in the class of 2012. Each will be expected to step forward in his second year in this system.

Like a wind-up toy, Nevada simply needs to insert a running back in this system and watch him go to work – and this with all due respect to former starter Stefphon Jefferson, who put together a 1,883-yard junior season before bolting into the NFL draft. My best example of this fact: In 2009, then-freshman Mike Ball carried the ball once during the year's first three games, gained 184 yards and scored five times against UNLV and then had only seven touches the rest of the way. So while the backfield starts from scratch, there's no real reason for concern. The Wolf Pack's lead back heading into fall camp is JUCO transfer Don Jackson, a three-star recruit, followed by junior Kendall Brock and sophomore Nate McLaurin. Nevada also has a pair of redshirt freshmen backs, but I'm not sure if either will see time in the rotation until later in the season.

— Defense: Twelve months have passed and everything has changed. Recall a season ago, when Nevada's front four was an enormous concern while the back seven returned almost entirely intact. The script has been flipped: Nevada's defensive line returns every meaningful contributor from last season while the back seven has been ravaged by losses to graduation. Unlike in 2012, the Pack will lean on its front to offset the changing pieces at linebacker and in the secondary, where Nevada returns only one defender with adequate starting experience.

That one starter, junior cornerback Charles Garrett (35 tackles), will move from cornerback to strong safety – so everyone and everything is new, going position by position. Nevada's new cornerbacks, junior Evan Favors and senior Markus Smith, move up a level after backing up Garrett and Khalid Wooten a year ago. Over at free safety, where both of last season's contributors were seniors, the Pack can choose from sophomore Bryson Keeton or junior Necho Beard. Nevada adds a few potential defensive backs this summer, bringing more bodies to the competition, but this secondary is almost entirely bereft of proven production. It's a concern. Even Garrett, the lone sure thing, is undergoing a transition in the move to strong safety.

At least the secondary has Garrett. Nevada's linebackers are all brand new, replacing three experienced seniors – the Pack's three leading tacklers in 2012, by the way. It's on the second level that Nevada will be aided by an influx of recruiting talent; the Pack signed five linebackers altogether and three off the JUCO ranks, and the latter trio are needed right from the start. While the new class will shake up the two-deep in August, look for sophomores Bryan Lane Jr. (strong side) and Jordan Dobrich (middle) and junior Jonathan McNeal (weak side) to hold starting jobs heading into fall camp. Can the JUCO transfers bring a different dimension to Nevada's crop of linebackers? They'll need to, in my opinion.

The front four is one of the most experienced in the Mountain West. While returning talent and playing time is not a concern, I'm still confused as to how the Pack hope to beef up against the run with the same cast of characters inside and the changes at linebacker. Once again, the interior will be manned by seniors Jack Reynoso (44 tackles) and Fred Lavulo, junior Jordan Hanson (40 tackles) and sophomore Rykeem Yates, with the potential for 265-pound JUCO transfer Dupree Roberts-Jordan to play inside, though that might be a stretch. Nevada's stars are at end, led by all-conference pick Brock Hekking (75 tackles, 8.0 sacks) and returning starter Lenny Jones (37 tackles, 5.0 sacks); Hekking is the best end in the Mountain West, in my opinion.

— Special teams: Senior punter Chase Tenpenny has a great name, the size to play middle linebacker and a good enough leg to challenge for all-conference honors, if this offense gives him the chance to shine – and that's not a real possibility. At kicker, sophomore Colin Ditsworth ascends to a starting role after attempting three field goals last season. The Wolf Pack have long been at least slightly above-average in the return game, and that shouldn't change even with Wooten gone on punt returns. Overall, look for Polian to have a hugely positive impact on Nevada's special teams.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Offensive line: For the first time in 54 games, Nevada will fill out a depth chart without former left guard Chris Barker, one of the most productive and consistent linemen in school history. In addition, Nevada must replace left tackle Jeff Nady and right guard Alex Pinto, though the latter missed several games in 2012 due to injury. Knowing that the left side of the line is a major concern, the staff shifted senior Joel Bitonio from right to left tackle. Meanwhile, the Pack's second returning starter, junior center Matt Galas, is an all-conference contender. The rest of the line is in flux. I imagine that sophomore Sebastian Tretola will eventually work his way back into the mix at right guard, where he started in Pinto's stead in the second half of 2012; he's currently missing on the two-deep, though that shouldn't last. The lack of game experience throughout the remainder of the line is a major issue. The Pack are slated to start at least one redshirt freshman, likely Jeremy Macauley at left guard; might shy away from Tretola in favor of little-used sophomore Zach Brickell at right guard; and currently have sophomore Connor Talbott atop the list at right tackle, ahead of junior Kyle Roberts, last year's backup at left tackle.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Air Force: Dates against the Falcons and San Jose State, both at home, are must-win games for Nevada's bowl hopes. It will be difficult for Nevada to duplicate last year's road success, a 5-2 mark, against a slate of UCLA, Florida State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State. All told, that's as difficult a road schedule as you'll find in the entire FBS. The Wolf Pack must – absolutely must – hold court at home to get back to seven wins.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: I'm less worried about the coaching change than I am about Nevada's defense and this schedule, a dual-pronged nuisance that will make anything more than six or seven wins a terrifically impressive debut for Polian and this staff. Now, these concerns don't extend to this offense, which will again be one of the nation's best. While the offensive line needs to round into form before late August, the Wolf Pack have enough burst and talent at the skill positions – Fajardo, Wimberly, the rest of the receiver corps, this rock-solid system – to score points on almost any opponent on this schedule. The offense will carry this team in 2013.

But to get back to six wins, Nevada's defense needs to grow up in a hurry. The front four is solid, and the end pairing of Hekking and Jones will help this reworked secondary defend the pass. But the lack of experience along the back seven looms large: Nevada has Garrett, some former reserves and several JUCO transfers set for starting roles, and it's highly unlikely that this group is ready for teams like UCLA, Florida State and San Diego State over the first half. But are teams ready for Nevada's offense? It'll be interesting to see if the Wolf Pack can simply score enough points to survive this ridiculous schedule and return to bowl play.

I think Nevada gets to six wins but no more, returning to the postseason against this very difficult schedule and getting Polian and friends out on the right foot – but I don't think it's going to a pretty season, with the potential for some ugly road losses and several games going down to the wire amid a barrage of points. Although there's reason for concern, any team with these weapons on offense will have more hits than misses in a 12-game season.

— Dream season: Nevada opens with a road win over UCLA and wins additional road games against San Diego State and Fresno State to go 9-3 in the regular season.

— Nightmare season: The Wolf Pack's lone road win comes at Colorado State; they also lose at home to San Jose State and BYU to finish 4-8.

— All-name team nominee: P Chase Tenpenny.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 75? This team's new defensive coordinator is 51-24 in his last 75 games as a coordinator.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: Mountain West, West

— Location: Reno, Nev.

— Nickname: Wolf Pack

— Returning starters: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 43

— 2012 record: 7-6 (4-4)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 69

— 2013 schedule:

Aug. 31 at UCLA

ept. 7 UC Davis

Sept. 14 at Florida State

Sept. 21 Hawaii

Sept. 28 Air Force

Oct. 4 at San Diego State

Oct. 19 at Boise State

Oct. 26 UNLV

Nov. 2 at Fresno State

Nov. 9 at Colorado State

Nov. 16 San Jose State

Nov. 23 Brigham Young

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.