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“There are some eerie resemblances with the financial conditions that prevailed in the U.S. in the years preceding the crash of 2008,” Soros wrote. “But there is a significant difference. In the U.S., financial markets tend to dominate politics; in China, the state owns the banks and the bulk of the economy, and the Communist Party controls the state-owned enterprises.” He added: “How and when this contradiction will be resolved will have profound consequences for China and the world.”

The problem, as economist Stephen Roach sees it, is China’s propensity for thinking that slogans are sufficient. There is an inherent disconnect between lofty pledges of economic reform, sustainable growth and public accountability, and Xi’s repeated assurances that China can grow north of 7% a year. China can either restructure its economy or grow rapidly — it can’t do both. Bottom line, the higher China’s growth rate, the less retooling that’s going on and the more debt the nation is amassing behind the scenes.

The need to restructure applies to Beijing, too. The untold part of last year’s Bo Xilai story was that he was merely the vanguard of ambitious local officials looking to build the next Shanghai. Bo’s greater Chongqing area comes pretty close, boasting a population bigger than Shanghai’s and a skyline that rivals New York’s. The way such regional leaders win Beijing’s attention is rapid growth. That means all around China, far from Beijing’s view, are dozens of nascent super cities all borrowing like mad to deliver big GDP numbers. They’re generated by massive projects to build highways, bridges, international airports, five-star hotels, universities, splashy art and sports centers, apartment villages, shopping arcades to welcome Gucci and Chanel and, of course, record-braking skyscrapers.

People haven’t make lots of money betting against China. But Soros is absolutely right that there’s a worrisome disconnect between China’s pledges to move away from excessive investment and overborrowing and toward a services-based economy without sacrificing rapid growth. If Xi doesn’t act now, Soros could make way more than $2 billion when things go awry and savage the global economy. Add a zero.

William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. Follow him on Twitter.