Let's take another shot at figuring out the story

We had a thread like this back around Launch, but I don't want to necro something this old (plus I'm not sure I can even find it), so let's give this another shot. While I have a strong suspicion that the Surge was put together from map fragments and gameplay set-pieces with story back-filled at a later date, there does appear to be something approaching a coherent timeline of events comprised of logical cause-effect relationships. Let's see if we can put together what exactly happened. I'm going to list off events I believe we "know" about and, where possible, provide references to why I think that's the case.



Setting



We know that Creo started out developing cybernetic implants and pioneering the technology behind exo-rigs, before Jonah Guttenberg decided to refocus the company on fighting the polution supposedly destroying the planet. He hired Dr. Melissa Chavez to develop a chemical called Resolve, which would be delivered into the upper atmosphere by orbital rochets. A rough timeline of these events is available in the R&D Expo lobby. So far, so good.



We know that Creo had and has a number of deep, systemic problems, both social and technological. It seems to have a severe issue with work safety, ethics and worker's rights, with management not really caring much for the fate of the "grunts down there." This can be seen in all manner of reports of gross safety and wellness violations, as well as in how Fergusson is treated. Basically, management saw Fergusson as filth and did what they could to undermine his authority, eventually leading to his death at the hands of coworkers (though that last part may have been caused by the "Surge"). Jonah Guttenberg himself seems to have his head in the clouds, talking emptry rhetoric while presiding a company committing outright human rights violations.



We know the exo-rig technology - specifically the neural link implant needed to operate it - has had persistent and serious technological issues. The story of Ed Nakana going from a "Software Solutions Lead" to a serial murderer to eventually talking about how memories can be forged and identity overwritten is of a fundamental flaw in the underlying design. It seems like the Neural Link is able to feed foreign thoughts into the user's brain, which causess different degrees of lasting psychological and neurological damage, potentially across all users to some extent. This is made worse by Creo's attrocious work ethic of overworking employees beyond all reason and prescribing them habit-forming, mind-altering narcotics like Modaxinol under the table. This is evident from a few reports of workers showing aggression, as well as from Davey's entire plotline. He's a transient pulled from the street and experimented on, given a drug he's been led to believe has been medically prescribed to him, which Sally can't find on his medical records because it was never "officially" approved.



We know that Creo has a problem with Resolve. Due to a general lack of proper leadership (which I'll get to), Resolve is pushed through production and starts delivery before it's found to have chronic but unspecified toxic effects. Dr. Chavez herself suffers illness as a result of working with the chemicals and is on record as saying she was pushed into production before a full set of tests was complete. This is corroborated by a number of reports of scientists working on both Resolve and Utopia not being given enough time to run full tests before their work is pushed into production. I believe Project: Resolve ran for several years before toxicity started being noticed, putting Creo under pressure from a US Government oversight committee.



We know that Utopia was intended (or at least presented to the board) as a "quick fix patch" to the issues with Resolve. This is a quote from a Jonah Guttenberg audio log. It was proposed by Dr. Gene Barrett when Resolve was deemend unrecoverable - too toxic for the duration it would need to be in the atmosphere to be effective. Utopia, by contrast, is a guaranteed solution to fixing polution, but at the cost of exterminating 95% of all human life (possibly all life) on the planet. Utopia replaces Resolve as Creo's focus unofficially, costing Melissa Chavez her job though she continues to work on Resolve in secret. It's unclear when Barrett informs the board of the Utopia effects, but they're well aware of them quite in adavance of the game's timeline. On the side, he's also developing the "♥♥♥♥ Machinalis," effectively a whole brain transplant from a living human subject into an entirely artificial exo-rig equipped with a life support system. Barrett intends this to be the future of humanity and a means of surviving the toxicity of Utopia, despite his current version of the ♥♥♥♥ Machinalis being an abject failure producing psychotic individuals at best. There are ample reports all over R&D of test subjects being spirited away to be cut up and the underwhelming results this produces.



We know that Utopia faces tremendous technical issues, potentially far more severe than Resolve. Its dispersal system uses nanobots of the kind Creo is developing for the self-assembly of orbital installations. The nanobots, too, have been rushed through production and their functioning is poorly-understood, as can be seen in severa logs in R&D and the Nucleus. They have the potential to "differentiate" (form into larger logical structures and evolve, if I understand correctly) and their delivery system can't handle storing them long-term. It appears a large amount of nanobots is also storess below the Creo World amusement park. It's my suspicion that the amusement park itself was built as a literal and figurative "cover" for this containment unit, upon which the park's superstructure is built. We know Creo engineers were worried about its structural stability as search and rescue team was covertly instructed to patrol the park constantly, looking for structual failures.



We know that Creo has a serious management issue. Johanh Guttenberg sees himself as the unassailable saivour of mankind, oppressed by a weak, corrupt and primitive government. Blinded by the apparent urgency of saving the planet, he's more than willing to cut corners and make diastrously bad decisions in the name of "saving" and "evolving" mankind. Gene Barrett is an unrepentent egotist and cynical ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ not just willing but eager to wipe out the vast majority of humanity to build his own "utopia" for mankind. Melissa Chavez is a classic disconnected scientist so absorbed in her work that she doesn't really consider the consequences of her actions. The board of directors, as well, is both elitist and divided. They hold a long and genuine discussion on whether 95% of humanity should be killed. Creo is run by a bunch of egotists suffering from extreme tunnel vision, letting the company literally and figuratively fall apart, violating rules of morality, decency and federal regulation and essentially caring for nothing but their one specific focus.



With all of that said, let's think about what happened, exactly.



Timeline



We know that rougly a month before the events of the game, Dr. Gene Barrett filed his final report on Utopia, propsing it for Launch. As far as we can tell, the board went into deliberation about DESTROYING THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT at that point and hasn't been heard from since. There are a number of reports about people trying and failing to reach them, to the point where foremans are reaching the point of mutiny. "Can't get a response to even the most basic questions." The Utopia crew is similarly left hanging, flushing and refilling the nanobot containerss so they don't breach. There's a report in the Nucleus to that effect. At around the same time, Helvig's search and rescue squad is covertly ordered to patrol Creo World, searching for structural failures. As the orders come directly from the board, it's safe to say someone there was worried about the nanobot containment unit under the park.



We don't know what happens between that time and the start of the game proper, so there's a chunk of the story missing. We can, however, speculate. We suspect Jonah Guttenberg was present at the discussions at least part of the way since he has a chair on the board. However, his chair is not hooked up to the Neural Vote system and his vote isn't being considered or recorded. This leads me to suspect that Guttenberg got cold feet, tried to pull the plug on Utopia and got voted out of the company. The remorseful audio log in his office suggests as much, and he appears to have left the premises prior to the Surge. I suspect foul play may have been afoot in the board room to keep deliberations going for months somehow, but we don't have enough information to guess.



The next few events we have partial information on. We know that Sally (aka S.A.L.) - the board's medical AI - initiated system-wide reboot of some kind for some reason. We know it was followed by the capital-S "Surge." we know this from her own words in the board room. This would be when the Failsafe Consoles start recording. The first thing they record is a massive energy spike through the system frying people's implants and causing malfunctions across the facility. We can be pretty sure that Sally didn't intend for this to happen, but we're not sure how her reboot could have caused it to happen. Creo's pretty♥♥♥♥♥♥at... Everything, but you'd think a simple reboot destroying the entire facility would be something they'd have accounted for. Either way, this is what sets events in motion.



Almost immediately after the Surge, a neuro-vote is called on the subject of Utopia. The votes are tied, with Greene I believe having voted "no" but not having approved his vote. Emergency medical assistance is called to the Board Room, suggesting that everyone on the board save Greene is likely dead at this point. Since their votes are cast and not withdrawn, it means the board members cast their votes prior to dying. Exactly what happened to cause this chain of events is unknown and I don't really have a guess at it.



We don't know but I heavily suspect that Warren arrives at Creo long after the Surge has hit, potentially several days. Around 27 hours in, the automated system tallies the "vacant" positions and posts job offerings. Warren, who lost the use of his legs at an incident in Creo World (that's in the DLC) and who's been meaning to work for them as a means of walking again, takes the job offering and arrives at Creo HQ. While everything appears normal, it's my belief that Security hass already been compromised. We see a blood trail leading to a vent in NG+ suggesting that Warren's botched operation isn't the only one which happened. I suspect Mallory left the blood trail as we know it was her first day, too. This is consistent with the system posting automatic job offerings. The station itself is "being shut down" and is devoid of anyone besides security, acting the same way they do after the Surge.



We know that at some point, "damaged systems" were "replaced with high-security anti-intrusion analogous systems" or some thing to that effect - it's from the Failsafe Consoles. We also know from Irina Beckett's storyline and from Ed Nakana's story that people's memories can be overwritten. Irina starts out as an engineer, but slowly forgets who she is and behaves like security, protecting the Executive Forum because "it's classified." When pressed for details, her head huts because those memories don't exist. She is, in essence, being absorbed as part of the automated security system, behaving superficially normally, but no different to the other workers still miming their original jobs. It's my belief that all of security has been affected this way, their more robust implant keeping their brains from being fried but not keeping their memories from being overridden. It would explain why security in the opening train station acted normal, and basically told Warren to "stay back and go about his business." It's what they do throughout the game.



Somewhere along the way, the nanobots escaped from their containment in the Nucleus. Since they weren't purged and destroyed, they started morphing together into a solid mass. They infected humans, growing structure inside human tissue and mimicking it. They also interfaced with Creo-net and gained access to the thoughts and memories of essentially everyone connected. Over the four days after everyone died or went insane, they passed their 24-hour cutoff date and eventually formed a new being - the Rogue Process. Some have speculated that the Surge was the violent event during which the nannite system became conscious, but judging by the logs I don't see that as very likely. Up until the Surge, the nannites were contained and managed by employees. It's only 27 hours AFTER the Surge that strage growts were recorded on the Failsafe Consoles, so the Surge itself would have to be something else.



And... This is about where my knowledge and conjecture runs out. If anyone has ideas or additional information, please let me know. I'd love to restart this discussion :)