By James Bassil

The Arizona Cardinals have been a frustrating team to watch in 2019, sitting at 0-3-1 at the quarter-mark of the 2019 NFL season. The additions of electrifying quarterback Kyler Murray and coach Kliff Kingsburry brought with them hope that the Cardinals would be a competitive team. While they have looked better than last year’s squad, the offseason hype has dwindled, and reality has set in- the Cardinals are simply not a great team this year. But teams selecting first overall rarely transform into contenders within one offseason, so that should have been predictable.

That being said, many fans, myself included, find it difficult to avoid reacting impulsively to the lack of success week to week. As the losses pile up, a dark cloud of pessimism looms over the fan base, bringing with it a storm of doubt and anger. While it can be easy to become a prisoner of the moment, perspective is important. With that in mind, let’s analyze each first overall quarterback’s rookie season over the past decade. Then, and only then, can we effectively judge the play of Kyler Murray.

Matt Stafford

The infamous 0-16 Lions needed a savior, and with the first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft they saw University of Georgia stud Matthew Stafford fit to fulfill that role. Injuries robbed him of much of his rookie campaign, and he finished with 2,267 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. The Lions were 2-8 in Stafford’s 10 starts, and they were 0-6 in games he missed. Despite this, Stafford would go on to become the 4th player in NFL history to throw for 5,000+ yards in a season in his first full season as a starter. He also threw for a gaudy 41 touchdowns to 16 interceptions, and was the 2011 Comeback Player of the Year.

The cherry on top? The Lions made their first playoff appearance of the millennium. Today, Stafford is regarded as one of the most reliable franchise quarterbacks in the league, and has been rightfully lauded for his toughness and leadership in Detroit. Perhaps most impressive, Stafford has lead 28 4th quarter comebacks in his career with the Lions, good for fourth among active quarterbacks.

Sam Bradford

Bradford is a player that Cardinals fans know well. He had a respectable rookie campaign, finishing with 3512 passing yards 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The stats don’t jump off the page, but the then St. Louis Rams found themselves in a winner-take-all week 17 showdown with Seattle for the division crown. The season ended in disappointment, as Bradford finished 19/36 with 158 yards no touchdowns and 1 interception in the 16-6 loss.

The game would become a prophesy of sorts for Bradford’s career in the NFL: he had all the tools for success but fell short at the doorstep of becoming a franchise quarterback. Injuries and lack of stability derailed Bradford’s career, despite his career earnings surpassing an eye-popping $129 million. He last played for the Cardinals, losing all three starts in 2018’s forgettable 3-13 season.

Cam Newton

In 2011, the 2-14 Carolina Panthers took Auburn superstar Cam Newton with the first pick in the draft. Newton, a big bodied mobile QB with a cannon arm, stormed into the league with a stellar rookie season. Despite a 2-8 start, the Panthers finished 6-10, as Cam Newton ran away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He broke the rookie records for passing and rushing yards.

Newton would also go on to become the only MVP award winner on this list, as well as one of the few number 1 picks since ‘09 to make a Super Bowl appearance. Although injuries have taken their toll as of late, Newton has proven himself a star quarterback when healthy.

Andrew Luck

The recently retired Andrew Luck was billed as the best quarterback prospect since John Elway, and was the consensus number 1 prospect coming out of Stanford in 2012. The big bodied, athletic quarterback also managed the most impressive rookie year of all time for a quarterback taken 1st overall.

He lead the Indianapolis Colts to an 11-5 record and tossed the most passing yards by a rookie ever, with 4,374. Luck lived up to the hype in every way imaginable, despite retiring early due to injury. His career will go down as one of the biggest, “what-ifs” in NFL history.

Jameis Winston

Winston was taken first overall in 2015, and he finished that season as the third consecutive quarterback taken first overall to pass for 4000+ yards, a franchise rookie record. He also set rookie franchise records for pass attempts, pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Winston has had a tumultuous start to his career, with off-field issues hanging over his head ever since college.

Winston is a talented player with a cannon for an arm, and his numbers have been good - not great - at the pro level. He’s never lead the Bucs to the playoffs, but is off to a good start this year, tossing 1,167 yards 9 TDs and 5 picks through 4 games. Time will tell if Bruce Arians, former head coach of the Cardinals, can live up to his quarterback whisperer name and help Winston reach his full potential.

Jared Goff

In 2016, the Rams traded up to number 1 overall with the Titans so they could select Jared Goff. The This coming only six years after they took Bradford at the same spot to be their franchise quarterback. Despite his youth, Goff has become one of the most successful players on this list. His Rams are the defending NFC champions, and he and head coach Sean McVay are the NFL’s brightest young duo. But all that was anything but predictable following the conclusion of Goff’s rookie season.

The Rams were 0-7 with Goff starting, as he passed for 1,089 yards 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with one rushing touchdown. Goff went into his second year already labeled a bust, and effectively brushed off the doubters to justify the Rams decision to take him with the No. 1 pick.

Baker Mayfield

With the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns selected Baker Mayfield. He inherited a Cleveland Browns team that was 0-16, bringing this list full circle from Stafford to Mayfield. The selection sent the league into a frenzy, shattering draft expectations and ramping up speculation about the Browns’ future. Some loved the move, others hated it. Most experts saw Sam Darnold as the best QB prospect of the draft class, and many didn’t even have Mayfield in their top three.

Whether Baker has lived up to the selection has yet to be seen, but there is no denying that he has been a breath of fresh air for a Browns team that desperately needed one. In his first appearance, Mayfield, electrified fans in a Thursday Night win over fellow rookie QB Darnold. He went on to pass for 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns, the latter of which was a rookie record. Needless to say, Mayfield has been impressive to start his career, and he currently has the Browns at 2-2, holding on to a slim lead in the AFC North.

Kyler Murray

The Cardinals shocked the league, taking Mayfield’s backup at Oklahoma, and fellow Heisman winner Kyler Murray with the first pick. They dealt Josh Rosen, their first round pick from a year ago, and paired Murray with Kingsbury. Through four games, Murray has thrown for 1,071 yards, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 113 yards on the ground and a touchdown. That puts him on pace for 4,284 passing yards, good for second on the all-time rookie list. He’s also on pace for 20 total touchdowns, a number that should improve if the Cardinals manage to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for field goals.

The players on this list all share one thing in common: they ooze natural football talent. But that isn’t always enough, as evidenced by Bradford’s career ending before it could start due to injury. Rookie year performances aren’t always indicative of how a player’s career will pan out, as proven by Goff and Stafford overcoming early struggles to become top tier NFL quarterbacks. Winston, a quarterback entering his fifth year, still has time to prove his worth at number 1 overall- so Cardinals fans shouldn’t pin so much on Murray after just four games. Fellow Oklahoma Sooner, Baker Mayfield is further proof that quarterbacks on the smaller side can in fact succeed in the NFL.

Cardinals fans can rest easy knowing that only Andrew Luck was able to bring his team to the playoffs, so winning isn’t a good measure of a number 1 overall QB’s success as a rookie either. Cam Newton’s MVP season provided a firework show of passing and rushing stats that Cardinals fans hope to see from Murray one day. Whether or not he gets there isn’t dependent upon his performance through four games. The more he loses, the more he learns- and if all goes well, Murray’s talent proves that great things are on the horizon in the desert.