We are one week out from MLB baseball. Fantasy drafts are in full swing. I have my last two this weekend and the more advice and information I can take in, the better. Today’s article focuses on finding value at the shortstop position. If you are in a 16-team league, or a league that features the middle infield position, or you need a cheap shortstop for a couple of weeks until Manny Machado gains SS eligibility, this article will give you some players to think about. I’ve got one player outside the top 200, one outside the top 250, and one outside the top 300. We’ll start at the top and dig deeper as we go.

Marcus Semien – OAK

271 Average ADP across ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, NFCB, and FT

215 Average ADP since March 1, per NFCB

Semien broke his wrist just 11 games into the 2017 season. He returned in July and played 74 games, hitting all of his season total 10 home runs. The power is legit, as evidenced by a 27-home run 2016 campaign. The power is also supported by a fly ball rate of 42% and a hard-hit rate of 30%. While the hard-hit rate is nothing to write home about, it’s sufficient to produce a 20-home run season when paired with the fly ball rate. With any wrist injury, the power usually takes a couple months to build back up to pre-injury levels. It’s no surprise then that Semien’s best month in terms of power was September, when he hit 5 home runs.

Entering 2018, Semien has had added time to build up the wrist strength. He’s slated to bat near the top of the Athletics’ batting order which has been strengthened by some free agent and trade acquisitions. Assuming good health, Semien is a lock for another 20-home run season and batting high in the order will only help him reap additional at-bats and runs. Not to mention, Semien has stolen double digit bases in the last three seasons so you can pencil that in too.

At the end of the day, a line of 80/20/65/10/.250 is a reasonable expectation which would land Semien somewhere in the top 170 players, plus there is still some upside in both the power and speed categories. At an ADP of 215, Semien’s stock is rising but he still makes for a value pick.

Tim Beckham – BAL

276 Average ADP across ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, NFCB, and FT

256 Average ADP since March 1, per NFCB

If you are planning on drafting Marcus Semien late and another manager beats you to it, fear not, because there is still cheap power at the shortstop position and it comes in the name of Tim Beckham. Beckham broke out in 2017 hitting 22 home runs, 10 of which were with the Orioles, to whom he was traded to mid-season. He hits the ball hard at a 39% clip and in the air at a 30% clip, which should be good enough to get Beckham to 20 home runs again in 2018. Beckham’s breakout is also supported by a 5% jump in his contact rate, which went from 65% to 70% from 2016 to 2017.

Like Semien, Beckham is slated to bat toward the top of the Baltimore Orioles line up, which will help in accumulating runs scored as that line up is a dangerous one. Beckham doesn’t quite have the speed of Semien, but he stole 6 bases last season so he should be able to chip in a few for your team. Overall, an expected final line for Beckham could be something like 85/20/65/5/.250. It’s not too far off from Semien, and it seems that Semien’s ADP since March 1 has risen while Beckham’s remains outside the top 250 picks. As an added bonus, Beckham will play 3B for the Orioles this season so he will quickly gain dual eligibility. If Semien is an ADP gem, Beckham is the ADP diamond.

Ketel Marte – ARZ

350 Average ADP across ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, NFCB, and FT

339 Average ADP since March 1, per NFCB

Ketel Marte has been on the radar since he was a prospect with the Seattle Mariners. He was traded to Arizona last off-season, along with Taijuan Walker, in exchange for Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura. The Mariners are the early winner of that trade, but Marte was a big piece of that deal and his return has yet to be seen.

Marte had a great contact rate of 84% last year in his 73-game stint. He’s more of a contact hitter at this point in his career, but he did show some pop last season too with 5 home runs. At age 24, the power still has some time to develop. Marte is also having a fantastic spring training, putting up a triple slash of .452/541/1.121. The spring stats don’t mean a whole lot in terms of projecting Marte’s regular season production, but they were good enough to earn him the starting second base job, meaning Marte will quickly have SS/2B eligibility. With a full season of playing time, Marte should be able to accumulate close to 15 stolen bases, a couple handfuls of home runs, and a triple slash that won’t hurt you. A final line of 70/8/60/20/.275 is easily in the top 250 players, so drafting Marte outside the top 300 makes him a bargain.

That wraps up this week’s article on ADP gems at the shortstop position. Thanks for reading and feel free to drop a comment and let me know what you think.

For reference, below are my SS rankings and draft strategy broken into two articles.

“On Bzdek” Shortstop Rankings and Draft Strategy: The Top 15

“On Bzdek” Shortstop Drafting Strategy: The Not Top 15

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Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join Corey D Roberts, and Kyle Amore live on Thursday March 22nd, 2018 from 7- 8pm EST for episode #108 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will the latest information in the world of fantasy baseball.

Our guest this week is Professor Mark Rush. By day Mark is the well respected Law & Political Professor of Washington & Lee University and by night is the Chief Editor as well as a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com. His articles are published every Monday morning and his primary focus is starting pitching.

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