When it comes to the debt limit, all raises are temporary

WASHINGTON  If Americans are disappointed with the summer political drama known as the debt-limit debate, when should the sequel come out?

House Republicans want to extend the nation's borrowing authority by $900 billion — enough to last six months. Senate Democrats would raise the debt limit by $2.4trillion, buying time until 2013.

The current limit is $14.3trillion — which Congress raised by $1.9trillion just 18 months ago.

For months, the size of the increase was a side issue while both sides argued about budget-balancing measures. Now, it's central. "The only bottom line that I have is that we have to extend this debt ceiling through the next election, into 2013," President Obama said last week.

Democrats argue a long-term deal is in the nation's best interests. The unpredictability of a short-term hike could lead Wall Street to downgrade Treasury debt, leading to higher interest rates, Obama said.

The GOP plan, White House press secretary Jay Carney said Wednesday, would last only until Christmas. "Does anybody think that's a good idea? What kind of impact would that have on the economy? One of the most important seasons in — of the year for our economy, for anybody who sells anything, all right? Let's throw into doubt whether or not the United States is going to go into default."

Republicans note that Obama's proposed $2.4 trillion increase would be the largest ever — more than last year's record $1.9trillion increase.

"There is absolutely no economic justification for insisting on a debt-limit increase that brings us through the next election," said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the Republican leader. "It's not the beginning of a fiscal year. It's not the beginning of a calendar year. Based on his own words, it's hard to conclude that this request has to do with anything, in fact, other than the president's re-election."

History shows shorter-term increases are more common.

Since 1979, the average debt-limit vote has given the Treasury 251 days — about eight months — of borrowing, according to a USA TODAY analysis of Office of Management and Budget data. The shortest increase, in 1981, lasted just one day. The longest, in 1997, lasted five years.

Many of those increases were "temporary," extending borrowing by just days or months. But that's a dubious distinction, said Linda Kowalcky, who studied the debt limit's history at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.

"In the long run, they all end up being temporary, in that there's eventually another increase," she said. "Permanent just minimizes the number of votes between increases."

So it's not the length of the extension that makes this debate unprecedented, Kowalcky said. It's all the other issues. "I don't believe previous debates put so many things, especially sacred cows, on the table."