The first two polls of Iowa Democrats conducted since the January Democratic debate are good news for Joe Biden and bad news for Bernie Sanders.

The results of a poll of 500 likely caucus goers conducted January 15–18 for the group Focus on Rural America:

Biden 24 Warren 18 Buttigieg 16 Sanders 14 Klobuchar 11

Another poll of 300 likely caucus goers conducted January 14–17 by Neighborhood Research and Media:

Biden 23 Buttigieg 17 Warren 15 Klobuchar 11 Sanders 10

These polls are the first to show Amy Klobuchar, recipient of a New York Times half-endorsement, creeping up into double digits in Iowa — but still shy of 15 percent. In precincts where candidates fail to hit 15 percent, caucus goers whose first choice fails to meet that threshold may choose one of the candidates who does hit it.


The Iowa race remains fluid, but if Biden does manage to come in first, that would make it quite likely his big lead in South Carolina would hold up even if he loses New Hampshire. And it’s very hard to see how Biden loses the nomination if he wins two of the three marquee contests in February.