Now that we know the nominations for this year's Oscars, all attention turns to who will actually take home the big prizes on the night.

Predicting what will and what won't win at the Academy Awards in 2019 is by no means an exact science, but if you want to impress your friends with some serious awards knowledge, you need to keep a close eye on the awards shows leading up to the Oscars.

More often than not, these early industry awards will give you a stronger indication on what won't win at the Oscars. No surprise there. But there are patterns that you can follow to work out what will take home the Oscar come February 24, 2019.

Related: Here's how to watch the Oscars awards ceremony live in the UK

Because we're helpful souls, we've taken a look at this year's awards-race winners so far and what their success means for some of the biggest prizes at the Oscars.

Best Picture

Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

Likely winner: Green Book or Roma



Netflix

Based on the wins to date, it seems like Best Picture is a two-horse race between Green Book and Roma.

Green Book triumphed in its category at the Golden Globes and landed the big Producers Guild of America Awards prize. Out of the 29 years it's been running, the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture has correctly predicted 20 Best Picture winners.

It's stuttered a bit recently though, as both La La Land and The Big Short nabbed the big PGA award, but failed to repeat their success at the Oscars. (Although La La Land thought it did for a bit, as we all remember.)

Entertainment One

However, Roma did win the Critics' Choice Award for Best Picture and it wasn't eligible for either Best Film prize at the Golden Globes as it's a foreign-language movie. Alfonso Cuarón won the key DGA prize (more on that in a bit), then that also gives it a better shot at Best Picture.

What stands in the way of both movies, though, is that neither of them were nominated for the Best Ensemble prize at the SAG awards, which went to Black Panther.

In the 23 years since the SAG awards introduced the ensemble category, only Braveheart and The Shape of Water have managed to win Best Picture at the Oscars without a SAG nomination. So currently, they're the exception rather than the rule.

Best Picture is the one category at the Oscars that is voted on by everyone with members giving their top five out of the nominees. If one movie gets more than 50% of the No.1 pick, it wins, but if not, the lowest ranking is eliminated and No.2 picks are used until one movie has more than 50%.

So there's every chance that a popular movie like Black Panther could defy the odds and beat the more 'awards-friendly' likes of Green Book and Roma if it's everyone's second or third choice.



Bohemian Rhapsody did beat Black Panther at the Golden Globes, but didn't have to contend with Roma, and the Queen biopic hasn't won any other awards, so you can probably rule it out of the Oscar race.

Best Director

Nominees: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), Adam McKay (Vice)

Likely winner: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

Jim Smeal/BEI Rex/Shutterstock

This one looks like Alfonso Cuarón's to lose after he won the main prize at the Directors Guild of America Awards.

There have only been seven times in the DGA history where a director has won the DGA Award of Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film and NOT gone on to win the Best Director Oscar.

The most recent example of this was Ben Affleck for Argo, but that's because he wasn't even nominated for the Oscar. (Ouch.) So, on the whole, don't expect to see a director win at the Oscars if they haven't already got a DGA award under their belt.

That means we can probably rule out Paweł Pawlikowski and Yorgos Lanthimos from the Oscar as they weren't even nominated for the DGA award.

With Cuarón adding to his Golden Globes win with the top DGA prize, it's hard to see anyone else winning the Oscar. It would be Cuarón's second Best Director win after 2014's Gravity.

Best Actor

Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Likely winner: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

20th Century Fox

Rami Malek and Christian Bale triumphed in their respective Best Actor categories at the Golden Globes, but when Bale won Best Actor at the Critics' Choice Awards, Oscar momentum swung his way.

However, that stalled when Malek was the surprise winner of Best Actor at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, making him the one to beat for the Oscars. Why? Because unlike the Golden Globes or Critics' Choice Awards, the SAG awards are voted on by fellow actors – like the acting prizes at the Oscars.

In its history of the SAG awards, 18 out of the 23 winners for Best Leading Actor have gone on to win Best Actor at the Oscars (Denzel Washington for Fences was the last to miss out). It remains to be seen if the ongoing controversy surrounding Bohemian Rhapsody will dent Malek's chances, but at this moment in time, he is the champion. *Cough*



Best Actress

Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Likely winner: Glenn Close (The Wife)

Sony Pictures Classics

If there's one person who seems to be a nailed-on Oscar winner given how the awards race has gone so far, it's Glenn Close for The Wife.

Olivia Colman might have won her category at the Golden Globes, but when Colman faced off with Close at the SAG awards, it was Close who triumphed. As with Best Actor, the SAG awards are a great indicator of Best Actress Oscar glory, with 17 out of the 23 SAG winners taking home the Oscar (Viola Davis for The Help was the last to not repeat her success).

There's a chance that Colman might win on home ground at the BAFTAs and there's always the dark horse of Lady Gaga (who tied with Close at the Critics' Choice Awards), but it would be a major surprise if Close didn't win at the Oscars.

It's not just the awards race success so far, it's also the romance of it, as Close has been nominated six times before at the Oscars without winning, the longest losing streak of any other living performer. Can the Academy resist giving Best Actress to Close? We think not.

(Remember too that while Colman is considered a national treasure-in-waiting in the UK, she's barely known in the USA.)

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born), Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Likely winner: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Entertainment One

If you want another surefire winner, it's probably Mahershala Ali for Green Book as he continues to rack up the awards win for the controversial movie.

Ali – who won Best Supporting Actor for Moonlight at the infamous 2017 Oscars – has beaten his all of his fellow Oscar contenders at the likes of the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards and, crucially, the SAG awards so far in the awards race.

The SAG awards aren't as spot-on with the Supporting categories as they are with the Leading categories, but 14 of the previous 23 winners have gone on to win at the Oscars, so they're decent odds all the same.

Add in all of the other wins and it's hard to see the Oscars diverging from giving Ali his second Best Supporting Actor award in three years. Unless, of course, the controversies surrounding Green Book impact it in some way.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina De Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Likely winner: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) – but it's anyone's game

Annapurna Pictures

Here's where all predictions and the usual industry indicators fail us as the Best Supporting Actress race is wide open.

Regina King beat her fellow Oscar contenders Amy Adams, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz at the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice Awards, but in an unexpected twist, King wasn't even nominated for the SAG awards.

Adams, Stone and Weisz were, but to throw a spanner in the works, none of them won the SAG award for Best Supporting Actress – Emily Blunt did for A Quiet Place and she isn't in Oscar contention.

It's possible that Stone and Weisz are effectively cancelling each other out given they're both nominated for the same movie, so you can probably rule them out of Oscar glory. But Adams failing to win the SAG award doesn't bode well for her Oscar hopes (at the sixth time of asking), so King is looking the likeliest to triumph.

The dark horse here is Marina De Tavira who hasn't featured in any of the other major awards leading up to the Oscars, but that doesn't mean we should discount her just yet.

The 91st Academy Awards will take place at the Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019, broadcast in the UK on Sky Cinema Premiere.

(If you haven't got a Sky package, you can catch it live for £9.99 with the NOW TV Sky Cinema Pass.)



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