birth death ratio by county.jpg

(Office of Economic Analysis)

Oregon's fast-aging rural population hinders economic growth and could lead to a long-term downward spiral of labor and job shortages in rural areas, the state economist said Wednesday.

Rural Oregon counties boast

for now, but birth and death statistics show that could drastically change in the future, state economist Mark McMullen said at the

's annual meeting Wednesday.

Deaths outnumbered births in 13 of Oregon's 36 counties in 2010. All 13 of those counties were rural, with Curry, Grant and Lake counties having the lowest ratios of births to deaths, data from the

indicated.

The demographic shift presents yet another hurdle as

from a recession that

than the Portland metropolitan area. Rural Oregon's aging population has far-reaching implications on the types of jobs available, the wages earned, and the ability of rural communities to lure young families and companies.

"Rural Oregon is aging incredibly fast, much more so than the rest of the state, who are able to continue to attract these young, working-age households," McMullen said. "Once you start losing the work force, it’s hard to talk firms into setting up shop in your rural area. With no jobs, you're not going to get any young migrant families. With no workers, you get no jobs, and this becomes a very negative cycle."

Rural counties that have bucked the trend of significantly aging populations -- Morrow, Marion, Hood River counties -- have done so by attracting Latino families, McMullen said.

“These are young households, typically younger than average and larger than average, but insofar as the aging population is a disease here, bringing in these young, working-age households is the cure," he said. "The trick is to train them to be useful for the industries going forward.”

In rural communities with an influx of seniors, job growth tends to be in the service sector, said Rep.

, D-Portland, who attended the meeting.

"It's into elder care or retail, so that really shifts the income dynamics in these communities as well, because even though the jobs are there, they're lower-income jobs," she said.

The best long-term solution, some say, is to boost logging and tap natural resources available in rural counties. U.S. Sen.

to boost logging on more than 2 million acres of Oregon & California Railroad forest lands.

Until timber executives, environmental groups and federal lawmakers reach a long-elusive agreement, Oregon might need to intervene in struggling rural counties.

Under the terms of a

, Gov. John Kitzhaber -- with the approval of county commissioners -- can impose taxes to maintain basic public safety services. The state would match any of the taxes imposed by the governor.

That could well happen in Curry County, where

that sought to increase property taxes to pay for law enforcement.

-- Yuxing Zheng