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What exactly happens if the UK fails to agree a deal with the EU?

Labour has said it will oppose a “no-deal” Brexit.

But that may be the only type of Brexit on offer.

So the question is, could Labour actually oppose quitting the EU when the time comes? And if so, could this mean Brexit doesn’t happen or, at least, is delayed?

We know that Brexit is due to take place in March 2019.

(Image: Daily Mirror)

That’s because the UK officially announced our intention to leave, by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, in March 2017. And under the terms of the Treaty, we’re supposed to go within two years.

But the assumption has always been that there would be a new trade deal in place by this time, as well as an agreement on things like the rights of EU citizens living in the UK.

The official position of the Government is that we’ll quit the EU without a deal if we have to. Theresa May has said that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

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But that’s a negotiating position designed to put pressure on the EU. Mrs May has also said repeatedly that the aim is to get a deal.

The trouble is that negotiations are not going well. A “no-deal” Brexit increasingly looks like a real possibility.

As a country, we’re having to think about what quitting the EU without a trade and customs deal in place would actually mean.

And it wouldn’t be good. There’s the possibility of trade tariffs - charges on UK goods being sold in EU countries - but also the issue of customs controls being introduced between the UK and the EU.

These would lead to delays on goods being transported across borders, and that would be a disaster for UK manufacturers, which employ 2.7 million people.

Carmaker Nissan, for example, says it has enough car parts in storage at any given time to keep its Sunderland factory operating for about half a day.

(Image: Handout)

It gets through five million parts a day producing vehicles, and depends on them arriving at the plant on a reliable basis.

This just won’t happen if containers coming into the UK are liable to be held up by customs officials.

It’s possible to imagine a world where businesses behaved differently. They could source their parts from UK suppliers, or maybe build some more warehouses and keep more parts in storage.

But this is wishful thinking. UK-based manufacturers compete successfully with rivals across the world and account for 45% of UK exports, but they do so because they have developed cost-efficient ways of working.

Many large manufacturers have complex supply chains. They require specialist items which a limited number of firms - sometimes small engineering businesses - are able to make.

Finding these businesses and building relationships with them is a major achievement, and not something that can be replicated easily.

So can we really leave the EU without a deal? Can we instruct firms like Nissan in the North East, Jaguar Land Rover in the West Midlands, Toyota in Derbyshire or Mini in Oxfordshire to transform the way they operate?

Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, told a Commons inquiry this week that it was “unthinkable” there would be no deal.

But some MPs are thinking about it.

(Image: PA)

Labour says it backs Brexit - but also that it won’t support leaving the EU without a deal. This is intended as a criticism of Theresa May’s position, but it also raises a difficult question for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn which he may eventually have to face.

It may become clear well before March 2019 that a no-deal Brexit is the only one on offer. In that case, what will Labour do?

A complicating factor is that it’s not clear whether Parliament will actually get a vote on leaving the EU without a deal.

But Labour wants to change that, by amending the European Union (Withdrawal Bill), currently making its way through the Commons, to ensure a vote takes place.

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell told the BBC’s Marr Show on Sunday that Labour was in talks with Conservative MPs about changing the legislation.

He said: “When we amend the legislation, which I think we will, I think there’s a majority to do that, to have a meaningful vote is what we’ve said all the way along, we’ll be able to say to government whatever you’re negotiating it will not be on the basis of no deal because the damage to this economy will be so great.”

If Labour does succeed in changing the legislation - which would require a few Tory rebels to join the opposition parties in backing the change - then Parliament will have the option of rejecting a “no-deal” Brexit.

Theoretically, this could mean Ministers were instructed to go back to the EU and try a bit harder to negotiate an agreement.

But that’s easier said than done. After all, they do want a deal now. They’re just finding it hard to get one.

The logic of Labour’s position is that it could end up blocking Brexit, or at least ensuring the UK misses the March 2019 deadline.