Want to win Super Bowl? Better find a safety in thin 2015 draft crop

Want to win the Super Bowl, Mr. General Manager? Better ensure your safety depth chart is squared away.

At least one of the safeties for the past seven NFL champions had at least one Pro Bowl appearance on his resume. Of the 28 starting safeties to appear in the last seven Super Bowls, 20 have been Pro Bowlers at some point in their career. Most are among the elite of their generation, and several are likely to wind up in the Hall of Fame: Kam Chancellor, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, Antrel Rolle, Earl Thomas and Adrian Wilson.

"The position has enormous value," NFL Network draft analyst and former league scout Daniel Jeremiah told USA TODAY Sports. "If you poll people around the league and told them they could have a dominant corner or a dominant safety, you might be surprised how many people would take the safety over the corner.

"They're the last line of defense, literally, so they're limiting big plays, which is key in today's NFL. They're involved in both phases, the run game and pass game. And you also add to that, it's a communication position and leadership position."

Yet high-caliber safeties who can transition from a college game that increasingly differs from the pro version can be very hard for NFL scouts to find. In the past four drafts, only nine safeties have been picked in the first round with Mark Barron in 2012 the lone top-10 selection.

That trend is unlikely to change later this month. Alabama All-American Landon Collins is widely viewed as the only safety worthy of a Round 1 choice.

"It's a bad, bad, bad group. There's very little to get excited about. The college game in general is not producing a lot of safeties," said Jeremiah. "This year is just paper thin."

Even Collins may have an asterisk.

"He might even be best suited to play (weak side) linebacker," said ESPN analyst Todd McShay. "He's at his best inside the box, he's got some limitations in terms of man-to-man coverage. ... Run support, he's outstanding."

Given the dearth of exceptional safeties in the NFL, that assessment may be enough to make Collins a coveted prospect. High demand and short supply earned the New England Patriots' Devin McCourty and less-heralded players like Nate Allen and Ron Parker massive deals in free agency. But overpaying for a known commodity makes sense given the drips coming from the college pipeline.

NFL scouts may even be looking for their next safeties at different positions.

"This year, more than any in recent memory, we're talking a lot about corners converting to safety," said Jeremiah.

Utah cornerback Eric Rowe, Miami (Ohio)'s Quentin Rollins, USC's Josh Shaw and even Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson have been mentioned as possible safeties at the NFL level.

"It's the most difficult position to scout right now in college because of the spread (offense)," added Jeremiah. "It's tough to find them."

Chancellor was a fifth-round pick in 2011. McCourty is a converted cornerback but has played so well at his new position, he just signed a new five-year contract for $47.5 million.

That all bodes well for Collins, a 6-foot, 228-pounder, whose game more closely resembles Chancellor's.

"Landon is a talented guy in a lot of ways, made a lot of great plays for us," Alabama coach Nick Saban told USA TODAY Sports. "Hard worker, good leader, did a good job."

Saban was even more effusive of Collins' ability after Alabama's March 11 pro day.

"Landon's a very, very explosive, physical, big-hitter, has got really good ball skills, can play man-to-man," he said. "He's very instinctive. There's not very many guys that have his size and speed and athleticism that play in the secondary. Those things can be intimidating to a lot of receivers. I think Landon's going to be a fantastic NFL player."

New Oakland Raiders defensive coordinator Ken Norton, Jr. knows a thing or two about superb safety play. A 13-year linebacker in the NFL, he played alongside stars like Darren Woodson and Merton Hanks. Norton also spent the previous five seasons as a defensive assistant for the Seattle Seahawks, who employ Thomas and Chancellor, the league's premier safety duo.

Norton has scouted Collins and likes what he's seen.

"He's a guy that fits that mold. He's really smart, he's fast, he understands how to tackle — safeties today have to be really good tacklers. The ball gets out to them, and tackling is extremely important, especially the way the league is now," Norton told USA TODAY Sports, adding it can be hard for young safeties to adapt to the NFL's hitting zone.

"We don't have a lot of contact in practice, so tackling becomes paramount. He's from a school that's put out some really good safeties, and he's had a lot of really good examples. So we're expecting a lot from him."

OTHERS TO WATCH

Damarious Randall, Arizona State

Height: 5-11. Weight: 196.

Scouting report: His explosive athleticism was on display at the combine and has helped to steadily boost his value. Aggressive and relentless, he owns good ball skills and actually played some receiver in junior college. Certainly doesn't have ideal size for an NFL safety and might have to make his bones on nickel packages before proving he can start.

Insider's take: "If you're talking pure, cover safeties, Randall's the best in this class. ... Watching the tape, he just jumped out — flying around the field, plays full speed all the time, really good play-making instincts and production." — ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay

Projected round: Late first/early second

Anthony Harris, Virginia

Height: 6-1. Weight: 183.

Scouting report: A three-year starter, he provides intelligence, leadership and the ability to defend both the pass and run effectively. He led the country with eight interceptions as a junior in 2013. However he'll almost surely have to add bulk to his frame in order to be an effective tackler at the NFL level. May have to switch to corner if he can't beef up.

Insider's take: "He plays bigger than his size. He doesn't have huge range, but he's very instinctive." — NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah

Projected round: Third/Fourth

Jaquiski Tartt, Samford

Height: 6-1. Weight: 221.

Scouting report: Large frame is ideal for an NFL strong safety, and Tartt's ability as a ferocious tackler should allow him to make a living in the box. Though he flashed 4.53 40-yard speed at the combine, he'll need plenty of polish to avoid being a liability in coverage. Also will need cushion to make jump from small school level of competition.

Insider's take: "Really, really physical guy. He burst onto the scene against TCU early in the season, and got some big hits. But he's not a great (coverage) safety." — Jeremiah

Projected round: Fourth

James Sample, Louisville

Height: 6-2. Weight: 209.

Scouting report: Often overshadowed by teammate Gerod Holliman in 2014, Sample is still an intriguing prospect given his solid build and ability to adequately defend the pass and run. But he lacks experience, which may be reflected by his ordinary instincts.

Insider's take: "He goes seeking it out (contact). ... He makes the big plays, and he's adequate in coverage." — McShay

Projected round: Fourth/fifth