He cautions, however, that longer-term forecasting, of several weeks to several months, remains more problematic.

These subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, as they are called, are critical for economies worldwide, helping farmers in Australia decide how much irrigation water they’ll need, for example, or international shippers plan their routes. They also affect military and disaster planning.

European forecasts are often considered better than most, in part because European governments often devote more resources to them, including costly computer time.

But the U.S. is trying to catch up. The government this spring enacted a law that prioritizes research to improve longer-term modeling.

Patrick Boehler and Jenn Jett contributed reporting.

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