Hailed by Michael Salfino (TheAthletic, FiveThirtyEight, and The Wall Street Journal) for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” The Prospect Digest Handbook has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Pick up your print version here and your eBook version here!

______________________________________________________________________________

1. Brendan Rodgers, IF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55 55 40 45 50 55

Background: A member of every Top 100 list since hearing his name called as the third overall pick all the way back in 2015. It’s hard to believe that the Lake Mary High School product is only entering his age-23 season. Now a defensive vagabond of sorts, Rodgers has been a consistent – sometimes potent – offensive weapon during his five-year professional career. Last season the 6-foot, 180-pound infielder opened the year up on one helluva offensive tear with the Albuquerque Isotopes in the Pacific Coast League: he slugged a Ruthian .356/.421/.644 with 10 doubles, one triple, and nine homeruns in only 35 games. Colorado called their long time top prospect up to The Show in mid-May, though the results we a bit underwhelming: he hit a lowly .246/.300/.277 with just a pair of doubles in 70 plate appearances. He was briefly demoted and then recalled before hitting the disabled list with a “shoulder impingement.” He would eventually undergo a procedure to repair his right labrum.

Scouting Report: The ink has dried on Nolan Arenado’s eight-year extension and Trevor Story is still under team control for three more seasons, and neither is going to be vacating their positions on the left-side of the infield. Daniel Murphy, fresh off of a season in which he slugged .279/.328/.452, is under contract for at least one more year, maybe two thanks to a contract option. And the team has other interesting options to fill the second base void in Garret Hampson and Ryan McMahon as well. But make no mistake about it: Rodgers will assume a starting gig as soon as the team’s convinced he can handle it. Above-average offensive tools with a solid glove to handle any infield position.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

______________________________________________________________________________

2. Ryan Rolison, LHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 55 60 50 50 55 50

Background: There was a brief two-year stretch where the Rockies were simply picking the wrong arms in the opening round of the draft. The club selected Mike Nikorak with the 27th overall pick in 2015. And doubled down on a pair of high upside arms in Riley Pint and Robert Tyler with the 4th and 38th selections the following year. But they finally found a keeper in Rolison, a lanky left-hander out of Ole Miss. Taken with the 22nd pick two years ago, it took just three – absurdly good – starts in the Sally last season for Rolison to convince the powers that be that he was ready for High Class A. He would go on to make 22 starts with Lancaster, home to the infamous bandbox, posting a 118-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the year with a total of 131.0 innings of work, averaging 9.1 strikeouts and just 2.7 walks per nine innings.

Scouting Report: The command improved – significantly. Rolison battled some questionable control / command issues during his collegiate career, particularly in his final season at Ole Miss. But it’s been impeccable since he’s entered the Rockies’ organization. The young lefty owns a standard four-pitch mix: a low-90s fastball, a plus curveball, an average slider (that he sometimes chokes), and a nice little deceptive changeup. If he continues the trend of throwing more quality strikes, which has been the case, Rolison is looking like a strong candidate to develop into a #3-type starting pitcher.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

3. Ryan Vilade, SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55/60 45/50 50 50 45 50

Background: Penn State was famously regarded as Linebacker U. for decades. Perhaps the Colorado Rockies farm system should adopt their own moniker? Middle-infielder U.? Doesn’t really have the same ring to it, but the premise certainly holds – at least for the last several seasons. Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, and – quietly – Ryan Vilade. Taken in the second round of the 2017 draft, the 48th overall pick, Vilade handled the Pioneer League with relative ease during his professional debut, hitting .308/.438/.496 with 10 extra-base hits in only 33 games. He followed that up with a solid .274/.353/.368 triple-slash line as he moved into the Sally the following year. Last season, as a 20-year-old, the Stillwater High School product turned in his finest season to date – though it comes with a large caveat – in High Class A. That aforementioned caveat: Lancaster is one of the most hitter-friendly, run-inducing environments in professional baseball. Vilade slugged .303/.367/.466 with career highs in doubles (27), triples (10), homeruns (12), and stolen bases (24). His overall production, per Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 18%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old hitters to meet the following criteria in the California League (min. 350 PA): 113 to 123 DRC+; a sub-20% strikeout rate; and a walk rate between 8% and 10%. Those three hitters are Franmil Reyes, Nolan Arenado, and – of course – Ryan Vilade. For the record: Reyes has been 11% better than the league average in his young big league career and Arenado has topped the league average by 25%.

Despite the strong comparisons, Vilade did show – unsurprisingly – some massive home/road splits: he hit .304/.358/.474 in Lancaster and only .250/.314/.371 on the road. Strong bat-to-ball skills with developing power to belt out 12- to 15-homeruns and a solid willingness to walk. The biggest improvement in Vilade’s game last season was his work with the leather: he was abysmal at shortstop two years ago, but graded out as slightly below-average last season.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

______________________________________________________________________________

4. Antonio Santos, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 80 50 45 50+ 55 50

Background: Ignore the stigma that’s plagued the organization since its inception. You know, the one about struggling to develop arms. Now let’s take a look at the Rockies’ homegrown arms that have popped up during the past couple seasons: German Marquez, who’s tallied 9.9 wins above replacement since 2017; Jon Gray, who’s totaled more than 12 WAR since 2016; Kyle Freeland, who earned more than four wins in 2018; Antonio Senzatela, a solid backend starting pitcher; and dominant backend reliever Carlos Estevez. Enter: Antonio Santos, a ridiculously hard-throwing right-hander who’s already earned some significant time at Class AA. Last season, the hard-throwing Dominican right-hander spent time between Lancaster and Hartford, throwing 145.0 innings with an impressive 140-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with an aggregate 4.53 ERA.

Scouting Report: On the short, short list for most underrated prospect in the entire minor leagues; Santos owns a high octane, nitrous infused repertoire that’s not dissimilar to Marlins All-Star Sandy Alcantara. The Rockies’ prospect owns an 80-grade fastball that sits 95- to 97-mph and reached as high as 102 mph last season. He’ll mix in a surprisingly solid mid- to upper-80s changeup that generates a decent amount of weak contact and swings-and-misses. He also throws two distinct breaking balls: a power curveball sitting in the low-80s with some solid action and a cutter-like slider that’s easily his worst offering. The best part: he commands the strike zone really well. I like this kid. He’s a name to remember and a dark horse candidate for N.L. Rookie of the Year.

Ceiling: 2.5–win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

5. Brenton Doyle, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50/55 50 50 55 50 50

Background: A dominant bat for Shepherd University during his three-year tenure at the Mountain East Conference school. Doyle, a native of Warrenton, Virginia, began his collegiate career with a stellar .327/.373/.480 with 13 doubles, one triple, and five homeruns with 11 stolen bases. Doyle did his best Babe Ruth impression the next year for the Rams: in 55 games, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound center fielder slugged .415/.434/.699 with 17 doubles, four triples, and 14 homeruns to go along with 22 stolen bases in 23 total attempts. He followed that up with another dynamic showing during his junior season: in 52 games he batted .392/.502/.758 with 17 doubles, six triples, and 13 homeruns with 19 stolen bases in 24 attempts. Colorado drafted the Division II star in the fourth round, 129th overall, and sent him to the Pioneer League. And Doyle did what Doyle’s always done: smoke the ball. In 51 games with Grand Junction the toolsy center fielder slugged.383/.477/.611 with 11 doubles, three triples, and eight homeruns. He also swiped 17 bags in 20 tries. His production, as measured by Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 98%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post at least a 190 DRC+ with 15 or more stolen bases in Pioneer League (min. 200 PA): Adam Eaton and Brenton Doyle. Eaton, of course, has been a dynamic top-of-the-lineup table setter through his big league career.

As for Doyle, well, the former Shepherd University star looked incredibly comfortable as he transitioned into the professional ranks: there’s the potential for above-average tools across the board. Tremendous plate discipline; he was on pace to swipe 50 bags in a full season; showed impressive power and played a passable center field as well. Doyle could prove to be one of the bigger value picks in the entire 2019 draft class.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

______________________________________________________________________________

6. Helcris Olivarez, LHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 60/70 45/55 45/50 40/50 50

Background: Signed out of San Francisco de Macoris, Dominican Republic, in the middle of August in 2016 for a rather paltry sum of $77,000. Olivarez, though, has big, big time potential thanks to his firebolt-slinging left arm. After spending the previous two summers and the first three games last season in the Dominican Summer League, the 6-foot-2, 192-pound southpaw finally made the leap stateside and opened a lot of eyes. In 11 starts with the Grand Junction Rockies, Olivarez posted a strong 61-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 46.2 innings of work. He tallied an unsightly 4.82 ERA and a nearly identical 4.88 Deserved Runs Average.

Scouting Report: Big, big time fastball potential. Olivarez’s heater would sit 92- to 94-mph and easily touch 97 mph at will. And it’s not just the velocity that’s impressive, it’s the ease that he generates velocity. His curveball is loopy but shows the requisite shape. It grades out as a strong 45 now, but it could easily wind up as plus as he matures. The changeup, which was widely regarded a well below-average prior to the year, was far better than expected. It shows some arm-side run and fade with the potential to be average, maybe better if everything breaks the right way. Olivarez is raw, but there’s sneaky potential brewing in his powerful arm. Had he lived stateside and eligible for the June draft, I would have put a second/third round grade on him. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 18-year-old pitchers to fan at least 26% of the hitters they faced in the Pioneer League (min. 40 IP): fellow left-hander John Lamb, who was widely regarded at one point as a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball, and – of course – the Rockies’ burgeoning arm Helcris Olivarez.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0–win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2023

______________________________________________________________________________

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45 55/60 30 55 50 50

Background: If you don’t succeed, try, try, try again. Well, the Colorado Rockies have taken that advice to heart. The organization originally took a late, late flier on Toglia as he was coming out of Gig Harbor High School in 2016; they used the 1,040th pick on him. Toglia, of course, never signed and attended UCLA. Fast forward three years and Rockies once again called out Toglia’s name in the draft. This time, though, it was in the first round when they used the 23rd overall pick on him. Toglia, a 6-foot-5, 226-pound switch-hitting first baseman / corner outfielder, turned in an impressive collegiate career for the Bruins. As a true freshman, the Gig Harbor, Washington, native batted .261/.382/.483 with 21 extra-base hits and spent the ensuing summer with the Cotuit Kettleers in the Cape Cod League. Toglia ratcheted up his performance during his sophomore season for the PAC12 school, slugging .336/.449/.588 with 24 doubles and 11 homeruns. And, once again, he spent the summer with the Kettleers, though he struggled to the tune of .209/.323/.388. Last season Toglia’s number regressed a touch as he hit .314/.392/.624 with 16 doubles, four triple, and 17 homeruns. As far as his performance during his debut, Toglia batted .248/.369/.483 with seven doubles and nine homeruns in 41 games with Boise in the Northwest League.

Scouting Report: Built in the typical saber-slanted slugging mold, Toglia posses above-average to plus in-game power, a tremendously patient approach at the plate, and some red flag-territory strikeout numbers. It’s the basic scouting report throughout his three seasons with the Bruins and he maintained status quo in the Northwest League as well. Looking back at his work as junior last season, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2018, here’s the list of PAC12 hitters to hit at least .300/.380/.600 with a strikeout rate north of 20% in season in which they received at least 250 plate appearances: Bobby Dalbec, Trevor Larnach, and Gage Canning. Dalbec’s an overhyped, flawed prospect in the Red Sox’s system. Larnach decimated High Class A and Class AA (briefly) during his second professional season. And Canning has disappointed since becoming a fifth round pick.

His offensive struggles in the Cape Cod in back-to-back seasons is a major red flag for me.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

______________________________________________________________________________

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55 50/55 30 50 50 50

Background: A long time personal favorite of mine, as well as a bevy of the club’s infield prospects, Welker has moved through the minor leagues with the quiet efficiency of a trained assassin. Hailing from Stoneman-Douglas High School, which includes such luminaries as Anthony Rizzo, Jesus Luzardo, and former Rookie of the Year contender Mike Caruso, Welker has spent an entire season in each of following levels: Rookie Advanced, Low Class A, High Class A, and – of course – Class AA. In 98 games with the Hartford Yard Goats, the former fourth round pick hit a respectable .252/.313/.408 with 23 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns. His overall production, per Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 13%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ between 108 and 118 with a walk rate between 7% and 9% in the Eastern League (min. 350 PA): Brendan Rodgers and Colton Welker.

Cut from the same mold, apparently. The problem, at least temporarily, is Rodgers is an up-the-middle player where as Welker’s stuck in a more power-oriented corner infield spot (e.g. first base because of Nolan Arenado). Strong contact rates, average patience, average glove at third base. But there’s a silver lining: Welker started out like a bat-of-a-hell last season, slugging .308/.358/.510 across his first 56 games. He would hit a lowly .151/.212/.204 over his next 26 contests before hitting the DL with “an undisclosed injury” for a month and never quite recovered. Given Welker’s career trajectory, his first 56 games is more in line with expectations. The power is coming.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55/60 45 50 55 50 50

Background: A standout offensive performer during his three-year tenure at the University of Minnesota, Vavra twice topped the .350 batting average threshold during his career. Colorado snagged the lefty-swinging middle infielder in the third round, 96th overall, in the 2018 draft. Vavra, of course, continued to swing an impressive stick as he entered the professional ranks. The 6-foot-1, 185-pound, lefty-swinging middle infielder hit .302/.396/.467 with eight doubles, four triples, and four homers in 44 games in the Northwest League. The front office bumped him up to the South Atlantic League last season and Vavra performed, well, like Terrin Vavra: in 102 games with the Asheville Tourists, the former Golden Gopher batted .318/.409/.489 with 32 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns. He also swiped 18 bags in 27 attempts. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 52%.

Scouting Report: It’s a surprising, at least a little bit, that the brass didn’t bounce the sweet-swinging infielder up to High Class A at some point in the second half of the season. Vavra, though, still has the potential to move quickly. The stick is an above-average tool, maybe even peaking as a 60-grade; he’s fleet-footed enough to swipe 25 bags in a season, though he needs to work on his jumps; above-average eye and surprising power. Throw in some solid defense and that’s a recipe for big league value. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-olds to post at least a 145 DRC+ with at least a 12% walk rate and sub-16% strikeout rate in the South Atlantic League (min. 350 PA): Chris Coghlan, Shawn Payne, and Terrin Vavra.

Coghlan, a league average hitter in over 800 big league games, seems like a reasonable comp and best case scenario.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

______________________________________________________________________________

10. Ezequiel Tovar, SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 30/50 30/40 50 50 70 50

Background: Just another member of the club’s bevy of intriguing middle infield prospects. Tovar, who signed with the organization for $800,000 on August 1st, 2017, has quickly become of the best defensive players in the entire minor leagues – which is great news because he can’t hit. The 6-foot, 162-pound switch-hitter opened up his professional career in the Dominican Summer League, one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minor leagues, by hitting a lowly .262/.369/.354 two years ago. The front office bounced him stateside to the Northwest League last season, an uncharacteristic move for Colorado. And Tovar flailed away, batting a lowly .249/.304/.313 with just four doubles, two triples, and two homeruns in 55 games. He was demoted down to the Pioneer League for his final 18 games; he hit an improved .264/.357/.347.

Scouting Report: One of my favorite prospects in the entire minor leagues. Tovar’s an absolute wizard at shortstop. So much so, in fact, if he could post production lines below 10% of the league average mark he’d be a 2.5- to 3.0-win player. Very young, very, very raw. But there’s a lot to like here. Above-average to plus speed; the hit tool is below-average but should be a 50-grade at maturity. And despite the lagging slugging numbers there’s so interesting pop brewing. Defensively, he was jaw-dropping good in 2019; according to Clay Davenport’s metrics he saved 15 runs better than the average in only 73 games. Remember this kid.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

______________________________________________________________________________ Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.