For Reds in 2015, 'if' is operative word

The day pitchers and catchers report to spring training is a day all of baseball looks forward to. It's the official start of spring. Hope springs eternal and all that. But little usually happens that day.

Players generally show up, check in and unpack a little. The next day is when the workouts begin.

But last year on reporting day, Mat Latos landed funny on his knee while throwing in an unofficial workout. It required surgery.

It didn't seem like a big deal at the time, but it turned out to be a sign of things to come for the Reds.

Player after player got hurt. The season, except for about a six-week run in June and July, went nowhere.

Looking back, the Reds were doomed before they ever really got started.

The Reds are 3 1/2 weeks from getting things started this year in Goodyear, Arizona. The roster, as it sits, today is very close to what you're likely to see when pitchers and catchers report Feb. 18.

So with the current group, the question is: Are the Reds good enough to contend?

If things go right, yes. If players start dropping like they did last year, no.

How's that for couching your answer?

But it's hard to answer any question about the Reds' overall prospects for 2015 without using the word "if."

The biggest ifs, of course, are Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. For the Reds to contend, you have to assume Votto and Bruce will return to their 2013 form. If Votto misses 100 games and Bruce hits .217, it's hard to imagine the Reds contending or even playing .500 baseball.

Sports are such a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately proposition these days, that people tend to forget Votto and Bruce were very good very recently. Votto gets accused of only wanting to take walks. His career average of .310 is fifth highest among active players. His career slugging of .541 is sixth among active players. Don't get caught up in that RBI mumbo jumbo. The guy can rake.

Bruce won the Silver Slugger as the best-hitting right fielder in the National League in 2012 and '13. He finished 10th in the MVP voting both years. He was awful last year, but he's had a good career.

Even if Votto and Bruce return to form, a lot of other things have to go right for the Reds to compete with the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. The Reds were a long way from doing that last year. They finished 76-86 and were never a factor after the post-All-Star Break slide began.

Conventional wisdom was that the Reds should begin to rebuild as the trade deadline approached. They didn't go that route then, and they didn't do so in the offseason.

Instead, they elected to keep the band together (at least most of it) for what many people see as a last run with the current core.

The club basically subtracted Latos, Alfredo Simon and Chris Heisey and added Marlon Byrd and some pitching prospects.

But those prospects will not get on-the-job training. Latos and Simon will be replaced in the rotation by the pitchers the Reds see as giving them the best chance to win this year.

"We feel like we have a competitive team, it's not a rebuilding situation, we have to feel as confident as we can one-through-five in our rotation," said Reds manager Bryan Price. "It'd be nice to just see Tony Cingrani after the shoulder issues, make sure he's healthy, get more familiar with Anthony DeSclafani, although we know he's very capable and certainly one of the favorites to make our rotation."

If (there's that word again) Cingrani and DeSclafani, the key player in Latos trade, can fill the No. 4 and 5 spots in the rotation, that would allow the Reds to keep Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. Iglesias, the Cuban right-hander the Reds signed to a seven-year, $27 million deal, fairly wowed scouts in the Arizona Fall League. The word "unhittable" was tossed around.

He could go a long way toward fixing the bullpen, which was as big a problem as the offense last year.

As for the offense, Byrd should help. The Reds' left fielders combined to hit .233/.288/.339 with 10 home runs and 57 RBI. That was near the bottom of the NL in all categories. Byrd hit .264/.312/.445 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI. Those numbers would go a long way in lifting the offense.

But nothing is going to be as important as the core players staying healthy. If the Reds can get through pitchers and catchers reporting day in tact, consider it a good sign.

Notable subtractions

--RHP Mat Latos: Biggest subtraction, particularly if he's healthy and returns to his 2013 form.

--RHP Alfredo Simon: Reds sold high. He's unlikely to repeat his 2014 year.

--OF Chris Heisey: Will miss his speed, defense and pop off the bench.

--INF Ramon Santiago: Reliable defender, decent on-base guy.

--OF Ryan Ludwick: Bat never came around after the shoulder injury.

--IF Jack Hannahan: See above.

Notable additions

--LF Marlon Byrd: His bat should help. But will it be enough?

--RHP Anthony DeSclafani: Key to the Latos trade. Bryan Price installs him as a favorite to make rotation.

--RHP Matt Magill: Power arm the Reds got for Heisey. Could help in middle relief.

--INF Eugenio Suarez: Put up decent numbers for the Tigers. Could push Cozart at shortstop.

--RHP Keyvius Sampson: One-time top prospect with Padres. Another power arm.

--LHP Jose Mijares: 3.23 ERA in 300-plus big league games. Low-risk (minor league deal) possible high reward.

--RHP Nate Adcock: Lots of big league experience. Could be in bullpen mix.

--OF Brennan Boesch: Left-handed bat with power. Reds need pop off the bench.

--RHP Jason Marquis: Latest signee. Had decent numbers in the big leagues as recently as 2013

What they might do before spring

Probably nothing huge because they don't have a lot to spend. But there are plenty of free agents still looking for deals. That's how they got Marquis.

Handicapping the rotation race

The locks

RH Johnny Cueto: No. 1 with a bullet.

RH Mike Leake: Reliable, sub-4.00 ERA guy.

RH Homer Bailey: Needs to stay healthy for the Reds to contend.

The wild card

RH Raisel Iglesias: He has the best stuff of those in race. But could help the bullpen as well.

The young contenders

RH Anthony DeSclafani: Scouts see him as No. 3, 4 guy. Struggled when given a shot with the Marlins.

LH Tony Cingrani: If healthy, he'll likely be the No. 4 guy. Big if after shoulder problems.

LH David Holmberg: Made quality starts in his final four outings of the year.

Journeymen fallbacks

RH Dylan Axelrod: Pitched very well (2-1, 2.95 ERA) in four games last year.

RH Jason Marquis: Great athlete, has had big league success.