Just six months after unveiling a new bus system for Baltimore, the Maryland Transit Administration has already proposed cutting back parts of its heavily marketed high-frequency network as part of its winter service adjustments.

High-frequency service cuts after only six months? Some sources, such as the Central Maryland Transportation Alliance, say service would have been cut by as much as two percent.

I was curious how MTA made these decisions and what factors determine if a bus route is a success. Lower cost? Higher passenger volume? Efficiency? On-time performance?

According to the proposed service changes, one way MTA decides on a route’s success is via a route-ranking system it uses to evaluate its bus routes several times a year.

The system, which uses sampled data, evaluates route performance in several categories including number of riders per trip (one-way); number of riders transported per revenue-hour, passenger load factor, and number of riders transported per revenue-mile.

On-time performance, incidentally, does not factor into a route’s ranking.

The rankings are not typically made public, so I filed a Public Information Act request in November asking for 2017 summer and fall (weekdays, Saturdays and Sundays) rankings.

I also obtained from MTA a separate document on performance data by bus route, which provides daily averages on the number of passengers transported per route, the number transported per trip, the daily cost to run each route and the cost per passenger, among other information.

I received this data from MTA a few weeks ago and here is what I found out.

“Heavy-Hauler” Routes Rank High

A CityLink Red bus on Baltimore Street in the fall.

Not surprisingly, some of the CityLink high-frequency routes were among the system’s top ranked. CityLink Red earned a number-one total rank with a daily average of 58 riders per trip, and 57 riders transported per weekday revenue hour.

Red was followed by the CityLink Gold, with a daily average of 52 riders per trip, and LocalLink 29, with 57 passengers per trip.

The CityLink Orange ranked fifth overall, but ranked number one in the system for riders per trip at 59. LocalLink 85 ranked seventh and averaged 41 passengers per trip.

For some perspective on how many passengers a bus can carry, a 40-foot-bus holds approximately 50 with a standing load. The 60-foot articulated (“bendy”) bus holds about 75.

The LocalLink 26 in Shipley Hill in Southwest Baltimore.

High-Ranked Routes Get Cut Too

Several LocalLink routes ranked highly.

LocalLink 22, part of MTA’s Frequent Transit Network, ranked fourth, averaging 53 passengers per trip.

The Frequent Transit Network includes all CityLink routes and the LocalLink 22, 26, 30, 54, 80, and 85, which offer high-frequency service during morning and evening peak hours and midday.

LocalLink 54 ranked fifth and averaged 50 passengers per trip.

LocalLink 26 ranked fifteenth and averaged 40 passengers per trip.

LocalLink 30 ranked 23rd and averaged 38 passengers per trip.

But solid rankings don’t necessarily mean a route’s service won’t be reduced. Both the 26 and 30 were proposed for significant service reductions in Winter of 2018. For both routes, mid-day service (from about 9 a.m. — 4 p.m.) could be reduced from every 15 minutes to every half hour.

To put it another way, riders can currently count on about four LocalLink #26 and #30 buses per hour. If service is cut, they’ll get only two.

Additionally, for the LocalLink 26 evening service would be reduced from every 20 minutes to every 30.

From MTA’s “Proposed Winter Service Changes,” 2018.

LocalLink 28, which ranked seventeenth, is also slated for midday service cuts, from service every 20 minutes to service every half hour, and LocalLink 54, which ranked sixth, was proposed for evening service reductions.

LocalLink Operating Costs Vary — Considerably

Some LocalLink routes are more cost effective to run than others.

The LocalLink 83, which ranked tenth, carries an average of 2,895 passengers per weekday, and costs MTA about $1.57 per weekday passenger trip.

LocalLink 83, via Transit.

The LocalLink 65, however, which ranked 54th — and averages just 1,707 daily weekday passengers— costs the agency $4.07 per weekday passenger trip.

The 65 offers high-frequency service (five buses per hour) during a.m. and p.m. peak and is the only route that makes a direct connection to Amazon, a major local employer.

According to the performance data, a majority of LocalLinks cost between $2– 5 per weekday passenger trip, but some routes cost more.

These include LocalLink 33 (ranked 49th), which costs $5.55 per weekday passenger trip; LocalLink 34,(ranked 62nd), at $5.61, while the LocalLink 75 (ranked 59th) costs $5.75 per trip.

The most expensive LocalLink to operate is the LocalLink 92, or The Pikesville Circulator.

It operates nine revenue hours per weekday at a cost of $12.12 per trip, and six hours on Sundays (no Saturday service) with an average cost per passenger trip of $18.09.

Express Buses Are Expensive to Run