Is Nori Ok?

Now that the 2014 season has come to a close, Royals fans find themselves beginning to look for answers as to what the 2015 version of the franchise is going to look like.

Most of the core of the AL Champions will remain in tact, with only James Shields and Billy Butler being among the notable potential departures.

But another player who finds himself testing the free agent waters was more instrumental than many give him credit in helping this franchise achieve one of the more memorable runs in Royals history.

Nori Aoki started the year slow, and as late as June 11th was sporting a .256/.317/.310 batting line good enough for a meager .629 OPS. He was also taking bad routes in the outfield and quickly became labeled a bust as he was obviously not the glove savy, top of the order on-base machine the Royals thought they were getting when they traded reliever Wil Smith to fill a hole in right field.

The problem is, in the minds of most, this narrative never changed. Royals fans (including myself) pretty much by and large simply discounted Nori as a necessary evil due to the lack of any viable replacement.

This is about the time that Nori decided to start producing at the level we all expected. The problem is, it was so late in the game, most never bothered to take notice. He was still running funny routes, getting hit in the head by throwbacks to the mound, getting hit in the "family business" by pop fouls, and producing quality shots with his antics from pitches thrown inside. He was still being laughed at and loathed, but quietly began to hit. From June 13th until the end of the regular season, Nori hit .331/.380/.410 for a .790 OPS, which for comparison sake was 31 points higher than Alex Gordon in that same stretch.

In fact, according to OPS+ and wRC+, Aoki ended the season rated as the 3rd best offensive player on the team, behind only Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain. (Tied with Eric Hosmer in OPS+)

Maybe he finally adjusted to the American League. Maybe he was hurt and finally got healthy. Maybe the warm weather is all he needed. For whatever reason, in the middle of June, Nori began to hit.

The point of all this is that while all Royals fans are looking for ways to upgrade this team, maybe the correct answer is to look at the players we had who were themselves improving as the season progressed. It is hard to predict what Nori will command on the free agent market, but it stands to reason it would be significantly less than what players like Nick Markakis and Torii Hunter will fetch. Both of those, on the surface, would seem like potential suitors for the Royals, but when looking at the numbers, neither is any more than a slim upgrade at BEST over a player who can be had on the cheap and who is already familiar with our team and outfield.

According to fangraphs, Nick Markakis finished the season with a 106 wRC+ which was only 2 points higher than the 104 mark Nori posted. Torii Hunter managed to put up a better offensive season with a 113, but was rated defensively as one of the worst right fielders in all of baseball, a deficiency that does not play to the strengths of this team, nor to the needs of a spacious Kauffman stadium outfield. This is also the same shorfall that plagues Dexter Fowler, as he rated incredibly poor defensively, though he does have a decent bat.

The area that Nori was dinged the hardest according to fangraphs was in the base running category, coming in dead last among right fielders with 300 plate appearances. This may be the product of his often over zealous attempts to join Dyson and Cain in the attempted robberies of second, but either way, he would be of more value to the team staying put and being less aggressive. This is a very fixable problem as he is not slow.

Defensively, Nori is rated 11th in the league for right fielders who had a minimum of 300 plate appearances. For a team that prides itself as being defensive first, this may be the most important stat, as while he seemed quite deficient in comparison to his outfield counterparts in Gordon and Cain, he was actually more than capable in comparison with the rest of baseball. He isnt horrible, and there are no upgrades on the market that would be any sort of actual upgrade over Aoki defensively, even if his routes were ugly.

Cheap? Available? Familiar? Best Glove available and able to get on base?

There are options that might be better with the stick, but why change the identity of the team when it has already gotten you this far?

It is a hard thing to set out looking for the best options to upgrade your team, only to find that the answer may not actually be out there. If one comes along and is available to Dayton, then I would say it must be evaluated and weighed but at this juncture, I just dont see a true upgrade that is available. Nori will be cheaper than most and may prove to be the best free agent pick up for the Royals available, even if the fans don't like it.

Photo:Charlie Riedel / Associated Press

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