But reflecting on my interviews and correspondence with strong Trump supporters during the 2016 election, it seems to me that a significant subset of them have reasons to be complacent about the 2018 midterms that are independent of the outcome that they expect in the contest. For that subset, placing so low a value on Republican victory that they stay home rather than bothering to cast ballots is a perfectly rational choice.

That analysis doesn’t apply to the most reliably partisan Republicans or voters mostly interested in the legislative priorities of the GOP. But recall that while winning most partisan Republicans and losing the popular vote, Trump got a boost from a constituency of nontraditional voters.

Who are Donald Trump’s supporters, really?

Consider the Trump voters who strongly gravitated toward him in the 2016 primaries because they felt so alienated by the rest of the GOP establishment; or who voted for him in the general election due to his celebrity, or his status as a political outsider, or faith that he would “drain the swamp” of a corrupt, bipartisan, establishment elite, or confidence that he would be a good “dealmaker” once in Washington, or a desire to “shake things up,” or to stoke and then revel in chaos, or because of an unusually strong or visceral dislike of Hillary Clinton.

Yes, some of those voters now worry that a Democratic majority would seek impeachment, representing a threat to a president that they want in office.

Still, if what you like most about the Trump presidency is watching him drive the media crazy; or reading his steady stream of combative tweets ostensibly “owning the libs”; or having a white man rather than a black man back in the White House; or seeing a president unapologetically attack Muslims, Mexicans, and NFL players; or following along to Sean Hannity’s sycophantic analysis of daily events; or believing that Trump is keeping North Korea or Iran in check? Well, all of that will continue regardless of the 2018 election.

For the subset of Trump supporters mostly in it for the “are you not entertained” spectacle, Democratic victory might even enhance their enjoyment, with their champion stepping daily into an arena filled with new villains. “Here’s the question facing the voters this fall,” talk-radio host Hugh Hewitt, a perennial Republican Party partisan, wrote recently in a Washington Post op-ed. “Do they vote to ratchet up this culture of conflict and chaos, or to return Republican legislative majorities that have figured out how to work with this most unusual of presidents?”

For at least some of the Americans who put Trump into power, revealed preference would seem to suggest their choice is: Ratchet up the conflict! As the reality-TV POTUS preps for a new season, fans want plot twists.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders take fringe politics mainstream