Why do the third-place Cubs have the Pirates and Cardinals on edge?

Bob Nightengale | USA TODAY Sports

Let’s face it: The Chicago Cubs are done in the NL Central.

They are seven games behind the St. Louis Cardinals, after splitting their doubleheader Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with only 18 games left to play.

Then why in the world does it feel like they’re in the driver’s seat?

The Cubs are the sole reason why the Cardinals and Pirates, who are three games back, want no part of that wild-card game.

You see, the Cubs are all but mathematically guaranteed to be in that wild-card game, and Jake Arrieta will be on the mound.

Hello, it’s Madison Bumgarner again, only this time, wearing a Cubs uniform.

The Pirates were squashed at home by Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants a year ago, and then watched the Giants run the table and win the World Series.

We’re not saying the Cubs are the reincarnated version of the Giants, but with Arrieta on the mound, he can personally ruin anyone’s season in a one-game wild card format.

Arrieta, who starts tonight against the Pirates, has been absolutely unconscious the second half.

Historically good.

Arrieta is 8-0 with a 0.46 ERA since Aug. 4, and dating all of the way back to 1913, only Hall of Famer Bob Gibson has ever won eight consecutive games with a sub 0.50 ERA, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

If you want to go back to his last 16 starts since June 21, he’s 13-1 with a 1.00 ERA and 115 strikeouts, becoming just the third Cubs’ pitcher to produce 16 consecutive quality starts. Oh, and his ERA since the All-Star break is just 0.93, which would be the lowest ERA after the break in major league history.

You know you’re going good when your name is being uttered in the same breath as Los Angeles Dodgers starters Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Arrieta, whose 1.99 ERA and .194 opponents’ batting average ranks second to only Greinke, can win his 20th game tonight, becoming the first Cubs’ pitcher under the age of 30 to win 20 since Hall of Famer Greg Maddux in 1992.

Yeah, the dude is that good.

So guess who’ll be pitching that wild-card game on Oct. 7?

And you really want to take your chances getting past him?

Arrieta has a 2-1 record and 0.86 ERA against the Pirates this season, limiting them to a .155 batting average, and 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA against the Cardinals, with a .229 batting average.

Pick your poison.

The Cubs, who are on pace for their fourth greatest regular-season winning percentage in franchise history, are going to be awfully dangerous if they get past the first round, too. They would have Arrieta and Jon Lester, who threw a five-hitter Tuesday night, going potentially three times in the five-game series.

"When I signed here, I envisioned winning the World Series and not just playing September baseball," Lester told reporters Tuesday night. "Hopefully we can get to that point and talk about it a little more."

Yet, the Pirates and Cardinals would gladly take their chances in a best-of-five, than a winner-take-all game against the Cubs, no matter where that wild-card game is played.

This is why the Cardinals, who hit their first blip of the season with eight losses in their last 12 games, are suddenly playing with a whole lot of urgency. They used Randal Grichuk in center field last week against the Cubs, even though he couldn’t throw the ball with his recovering elbow, and had to flip a shuttle pass to right fielder Jason Heyward just to get the ball into the field. They brought Matt Holliday back off the DL on Tuesday even though he can’t yet play the field.

And they announced that no starter will be skipped the rest of the season after seeing troubling results with probable Game 1 starter Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Carlos Martinez struggling with extra rest. They lasted just 11 1/3 innings, giving up 16 earned runs.

The Cardinals (90-54), whose once-commanding lead dipped to two games after the Pirates’ win in Game 1 of the doubleheader Tuesday - the lowest since April 29 - now have a three-game lead with 18 left to play.

They still are in great position to win the NL Central again, and perhaps reach the NLCS for the fifth consecutive year, simply because the Pirates and Cubs play one another five more times the rest of the season.

It seems crazy that the Cardinals need to go just 10-8 to win 100 games, and it’s no guarantee they win the NL Central, but that’s just how dominant the division has been this year. The Pirates are 74-41 since May 9, the best record in baseball, while the Cubs have won 32 of their last 47 games, with an explosive offense that has averaged 4.9 runs a game the second half, second to only the New York Mets.

This is why the Cardinals were calling their 3-1, 10-inning victory Tuesday over the Brewers in Milwaukee one of the biggest wins of the season. Martinez pitched eight dominant innings before Heyward hit a two-run homer to win it in the 10th inning.

“It was the best I’ve ever seen him throw,’’ Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said of Martinez. “That was no-hit stuff.’’

Yes, kind of Arrieta-like, if you catch the Cubs’ drift.

And best of luck to that team who’s forced to face the Cubs and Arrieta in the wild-card game.

Nothing personal, but the man has a chance to end your season, in ugly fashion.

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