A member of the influential Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) said the church leadership has called vice-presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. to tell him that he is their choice for the number two position for the May 9 elections.

“Pinatawag siya (he was asked to come),” the source said.

That is not surprising because the Marcos family has had close ties with the Manalo family (The late Felix Manalo founded the INC) since the powerful days of the Marcoses in the 1960s. In all the elections where Ferdinand Marcos was a candidate, the INC supported him.

In fact, in the 1986 snap election, when the INC membership was deeply divided between the beleaguered Marcos and the popular Corazon Aquino, Eduardo Manalo, then the executive minister of the church, stuck with Marcos.

The decision to go for Bongbong Marcos was not difficult for the INC leadership because aside from the family friendship, Marcos is leading the vice-presidential race. Winnability is a major factor in the decision of the INC who to endorse.

In a close contest, which is what the May 9 elections is turning out to be, the INC vote is crucial.

Social Weather Stations’ Mahar Mangahas, in his column in the Inquirer September last year, estimates the voting strength of the INC this election to be 1.7 million. Two of the past presidents edged out their respective closest rivals with less number of votes than that. In the 1992 elections, the difference between Fidel Ramos’ votes and that of Miriam Santiago (who were both not endorsed by the INC) was only 874,345.

In the fraud-tainted elections of 2004, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (endorsed by the INC) was able to hold on to her un-elected presidency with 1.1 million votes over what was obtained by Fernando Poe, Jr., father of Grace Poe, who is now trying to regain the lead from frontrunner Rodrigo Duterte with only 10 days left to Election Day.

Mangahas said: ..” the proportionate strength of INC voters was about four and one-fourth percent of the electorate in 2010. My guess is that it will be the same in 2016. Assuming population growth of 2 percent per year, a number of 1.5 million votes in May 2010 would become 1.7 million votes by May 2016. This does not allow for either conversions to INC or withdrawals from INC. So I think that the claim of 2.0 million INC votes for 2016 is an overstatement."

How solid is the INC vote?

In 2010, Mangahas said, “In the presidential election, according to the exit poll, Catholics went 43.4 percent for Noynoy Aquino and 28.2 percent for Erap Estrada, whereas INCs went 77.1 percent for Aquino and 12.0 percent for Estrada. The 77 percent is the extent of unity of the INC vote—not 100 percent, but quite a lot.”

The source said the INC has not yet decided who to endorse for president but in the consultation with grassroots members, the choice was Duterte-Marcos.

He said the consultation process goes up to district level, to the ecclesiastical district, to regional, up to the 100-man council composed of senior ministers.

The final decision will be made by the 24-man Sanggunian headed by Executive Minister Eduardo Manalo.

The source said the two major considerations in the INC’s decision-making are, “Has this candidate done anything detrimental to the INC? Can the INC depend on this candidate to help the church?”

Winnability is also major consideration in the INC leadership decision.

Another source said the INC used to be not inclined towards a woman president. It, however, endorsed Arroyo when FPJ and Panfilo Lacson then failed to have a united opposition in the 2004 elections.

So, Grace Poe still has a good chance to get the endorsement, the source said, depending on how close she could narrow the gap between her and Duterte. There is also still the factor that the INC would like to make up for not endorsing FPJ in 2004, he said.

The INC sample ballot is released at the end of the Saturday worship before the elections. That would be on May 7.



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