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Eric Staal has been cornerstone for the Carolina Hurricanes since he was drafted second overall in the 2003 entry draft. Over 850 games later, the Hurricanes and their star center are quickly approaching a crossroad. Staal is in the final year of a 7 year, $57.5 million deal.

Some reports surfaced last month that suggested Staal is seeking a new deal worth around $9 million annually. Staal is unikely to get that type of salary, even on the open market. But, given that the Hurricanes are quickly approaching the decision of whether to re-sign Staal, trade him (he does have a no-trade clause), or let him walk, let’s take a look at where Staal currently ranks among NHL centers.

According to his HERO chart, which has remained fairly steady since 2007-08, Staal has still been a first line-caliber player over the past three seasons.

The only area where Staal shows some weakness is in his possession impact of shot attempts against. But, this is far outweighed by the shot attempts his team sees when he is on the ice. As the top right of the graphic indicates, Staal is a high event player, so it’s not surprising that his team gives up a fair amount of shot attempts when he’s on the ice.

Staal’s boxcar stats have dipped a bit recently. Entering 2015-16 Staal has posted 61 and 54 points over the past two seasons respectively. Save for the lockout shortened season of 2012-13, Staal had not posted below 70 points in a season since his rookie campaign in 2003-04.

Here’s a wide angle look at how Staal ranks among NHL centers over the past two seasons (current season excluded) who have skated at least 1,520 5v5 minutes. One-hundred twenty players meet this cutoff, so the top 30 meet the cutoff for number one center, 31-60 number two center and so on. Obviously individual player’s rankings in certain categories will fluctuate. All stats are 5v5.

Category Staal’s Stat (Rank) G/60 0.71 (43rd) A/60 1.09 (42nd) Relative Shot Attempt Percentage +4.83% (18th) Relative Scoring Chances Percentage +4.31% (22nd) On-ice Shooting Percentage 6.73% (102nd) Individual Shot Attempts 626 (1st) TOI/Game 15.12 (3rd)

A few takeaways from the chart:

Production-wise, Staal ranks in the top half of second-line centers.

In terms of relative shot attempts and scoring chances, Staal produces as a first line center should, ranking 18th and 22nd respectively. Despite his production rate dropping to that of a good second line center, he still tilts the ice at the level of a good first-line center.

Staal’s on-ice shooting percentage helps explain the discrepancy between possession/scoring chances and his rate of production, as he has seen some of the worst puck luck of the 120 centers in the sample. If Staal’s on-ice shooting percentage were in the range of his possession numbers (~9 percent), his production rate would be elite.

Staal’s raw shot attempts numbers and time on ice support the fact that he’s still capable of centering a top line in the NHL.

So, Staal’s production is still top-6 center worthy, but the process underlying that production is still solidly that of a first-line center.

But Staal is about a week away from his 31st birthday. As we can see in the graphic below from Money Puck of Canuck’s Army, Staal’s production is likely about to enter a stage of steep decline.

Staal is still playing solid hockey, but his recent drop in production should give some pause. Given the fact that history tells us players really starts to hit a steep decline in their early 30’s, perhaps that pause is worth heeding here. While Staal can still pass as a number one center at this time, any team, Carolina or elsewhere, that signs him to a contract expecting him to maintain that level of play over the course of a multi-year contract is likely to be disappointed.