



At the weekend, Chelsea sent a statement of intent to the Premier League, thumping a sorry Everton side 5-0. With Manchester City and Arsenal both dropping points, attention turned to Anfield, with critics and doubters waiting to see if this would be the first indication that Liverpool lacked the mental fortitude necessary to compete for the title. Liverpool answered emphatically, putting six past a Watford side who had hitherto been praised for their defensive resolve to move clear at the top of the table.



​Once the dust settled, pubs, offices and internet forums began to fill with Liverpool fans tentatively asking the question they're often mocked for: “Could this be our year?”. Every utterance is laced with trepidation -- many have seen too many false dawns. In 13/14, a post-Christmas run of 14 wins in 16 took Liverpool past Manchester City, before you-know-who and his busload of blues spoiled the party. In 08/09, a number of disappointing draws and a loss to Middlesbrough prevented them from edging a very good Manchester United team out of top spot.



​Is this year’s title tilt doomed to end the same way? Opinions differ, but one mantra is currently prevalent among journalists and pundits: Liverpool’s defence could cost them the league. It’s an easy assertion -- Liverpool have shipped 14 goals in 11 games and it's an area that has given Liverpool fans palpations for a few years now. But are Liverpool’s defence being unfairly derided? Let’s examine the stats.



​Amazingly, since the start of the season, Liverpool have actually conceded the FEWEST shots of the top 6 sides in the Premier League.

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​Surprisingly, the apparently miserly Spurs defence have allowed their opponents 25 more shots than Liverpool – yet Spurs have conceded 8 fewer goals. So what's going on here? How can Liverpool be so porous without conceding many chances? Let’s delve a little deeper.

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​Obviously, some chances are more dangerous than others: an agricultural CB thwacking the ball over from 40 yards is not a particularly dangerous chance to concede. The graph below shows a breakdown of the shots each team faced -- ‘On Target’ shots are those that require a save from the goalkeeper, whilst ‘Blocked shots’ are those stopped by an outfield player.

Whilst Liverpool don’t concede many shots, of the shots they do allow, a large proportion are on target. In fact, 43% of all shots Liverpool faced either ended up in the back of the net or required a goalkeepers save. In contrast, this number was only 28% for Spurs and Chelsea, indicating that both are better at limiting the opposition to pot-shots and half chances. Perhaps Liverpool’s expansive, attacking play leaves more space on the counter, allowing opposition forwards more clear-cut chances. Liverpool also sit low in the standings of blocked shots, which could give credence to the idea that they don’t offer their goalkeeper enough protection.

​ However, that isn't the whole story. Liverpool are NOT the worst team in the top 6 at allowing shots on target – that dubious honour falls to Arsenal.

Arsenal concede 1 shot on target every 25 minutes -- even more regularly than Liverpool -- yet Arsenal’s defence is not discussed as a shambles, and it's not widely claimed that it could cost them the title. But wait, if Arsenal allow so many shots on target, how have they conceded 3 goals fewer than Liverpool and only 2 more than Chelsea? It's time to look towards the men charged with keeping out the shots on target: the goalkeepers.











Liverpool have the lowest save percentage of the 6. Arsenal fair much better and sit in second place, only behind top defensive performers of Spurs. Clearly, Cech has been making up for his teammates inability to prevent shots from firing towards his net. Conversely, it is perhaps good for Chelsea fans that Courtois doesn’t face shots too frequently.

So Liverpool’s goalkeepers are to blame, and neither Mignolet nor Karius are up to the quality needed for a title winning team? Well, again, no, perhaps not.



When you individually examine the records of Mignolet and Karius, you discover that Karius has a save percentage record not dissimilar to Arsenal’s and City’s, and a fair amount higher than Chelsea’s – not bad for a young goalkeeper settling into a new league. Frankly, Mignolet’s save percentage record of 55% is dreadful and is perhaps why Klopp changed his number 1.





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What can we conclude from this statistical examination of Liverpool’s defence? Liverpool face the fewest shots of the top 6 teams in the Premier League; however, a large proportion of these shots require the goalkeeper to be forced into action, with only Arsenal calling upon their ‘keeper more frequently. Clearly, Liverpool could do with tightening up their defence, but perhaps they’ve now found a goalkeeper who can compensate slightly for their failings.









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