The provincial Liberals were prepared to endorse a light-rail line in Scarborough instead of a controversial subway if council decided to return to that plan, internal emails show.

Despite claims from Mayor John Tory that the province might not be willing to return to that plan or cover additional costs, the emails, obtained from Premier Kathleen Wynne’s office through a freedom of information request, suggest otherwise.

Senior officials in Wynne’s office and that of then-transportation minister Steven Del Duca were preparing for any outcome ahead of a key council vote at city hall in 2016 on the future of transit in Scarborough, the emails reveal.

At the time, Tory was championing a one-stop subway extension of the Bloor-Danforth line that was originally said to cost around $2 billion. But as a July 2016 vote to confirm that decision approached, city staff reported that the cost had ballooned to $3.2 billion. It is now estimated to cost at least $3.35 billion based on very little design work.

At the time, the increasing costs renewed a push led by Councillor Josh Matlow, who has championed a network of LRTs for Scarborough, to revert to the original plan for a seven-stop LRT fully-funded by the province.

The LRT was the original plan to replace the aging Scarborough RT, agreed to with the province and its transportation agency Metrolinx in 2012. As part of that signed master agreement, the province agreed to pay for all construction costs.

That plan was scrapped by council in 2013, under then-mayor Rob Ford, in favour of a three-stop subway. Three levels of government contributed a total of $3.56 billion in funding. The province agreed to contribute the LRT funds promised, totalling $1.48 billion in 2010 dollars. The federal government under then-prime minister Stephen Harper kicked in $660 million. Council decided to raise the rest, $910 million, by taxing all Toronto homeowners for at least 30 years.

In January 2016, then-chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat presented the revised one-stop plan, claiming that cutting two stations would allow council to fund a different LRT line along Eglinton Ave. East, which would go north on Morningside Ave. to end at the University of Toronto Scarborough campus.

Council endorsed that plan, declaring it a compromise. But the ballooning subway costs soon priced out the Eglinton East LRT, creating the standoff at council in July 2016 over whether a single subway stop or a network of LRTs would better serve Scarborough residents.

On the day of the vote, July 13, officials in the premier’s office discussed potential “reactive” statements depending on what council decided.

The drafts of those statements, copied in the emails, show the province was ready to accept either outcome.

“We know that there has been a lot of debate and discussion over the last number of months on this issue. We ultimately respect city council’s decision and our funding is still committed,” reads the draft statement titled “if council votes to not move forward with the Scarborough subway extension.” It was circulated to Wynne’s chief of staff and principal secretary Andrew Bevan and other key staff members.

One, Melanie Wright, chief of staff for intergovernmental affairs, questioned if a vote in favour of the LRT would mean the subway was definitively dead. She recommended being a “bit more vague” about the LRT if council chose it, suggesting the statement say: “We will continue to watch the debate closely but respect the will of council.”

In the lead-up to the vote, the mayor’s office and close allies worked to convince councillors that returning to the LRT was not feasible.

At the end of June, TTC staff prepared a controversial briefing note that claimed the costs of the LRT had also ballooned to almost $3 billion — putting it in the same price range as the one-stop subway plan. The briefing note was at first only provided to the mayor’s office and that of TTC chair Councillor Josh Colle. The Star has previously reported how that misleading memo was used by the mayor’s office to influence the debate.

“With the change in technology, confirmation of contributions from funding partners may be required,” the briefing note, a draft of which was dated June 27, reads.

Both Tory and Colle also asserted the LRT might not be feasible in public messaging.

“There is no discussion of what the real aftermath of another about-face would be, whether the LRT remains feasible, or would have the support of Metrolinx and our government partners,” Tory wrote in an opinion piece published in the Star on June 27.

On the council floor during the July council meeting, Matlow pointed out the province was bound by the still-signed agreement they’d made with the city in 2012, one the province had a “commitment to honour.”

Tory balked at that suggestion, questioning Matlow on the “gap” between the $1.48 billion committed by the province and the new $3 billion cost estimated by the TTC.

“Have you had any conversations with ... the CEO of Metrolinx as to whether they have plans to make up the difference between the two?” Tory asked Matlow. “Have you had any conversations with the minister of transportation with respect to whether they have plans to write a cheque to make up the difference to fund your plan?”

In fact, behind the scenes, then-CEO of Metrolinx Bruce McCuaig had already had that very conversation with Steven Ball, director of policy for the minister of transportation, Del Duca, the newly-obtained emails show. The officials questioned the LRT costing and concerns raised in the briefing note and by Tory and his allies.

Tory’s chief of staff Chris Eby emailed McCuaig and other provincial officials about the so-called “gap” on July 5, asking whether the province would pay the $1-billion “delta.”

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McCuaig responded to Ball directly, cutting out Eby. “The province committed to 100% of the capital construction cost,” he wrote. “This was in 2010 dollars, so it would need to be escalated to year of expenditure dollars.” McCuaig added he didn’t know how the city had arrived at the $3 billion estimate for the LRT.

Ball forwarded McCuaig’s note to Wright in the premier’s office, adding the estimate from the TTC was “news to us when it came out (and) can make things difficult.”

Wright asked whether the province would cover any gap.

Ball wrote: “The city came out with these unknown escalated LRT [numbers] then made (or tried to) claims that there wasn’t enough [provincial] funding to cover a possible LRT project. Despite the still-in-place Master Agreement saying we will cover LRT cost 100%.”

“The LRT costs haven’t necessarily gone up,” Ball continued in a subsequent email, apart from accounting for inflation to a new construction date and the TTC mistakenly double counting $320 million that was already covered in the budget for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT project.

“I’m not sure how there would be a gap given they could escalate $1.48 (billion) from 2010 — presumably at the same rate — as well,” he wrote.

The city’s auditor general Beverly Romeo-Beehler later investigated the briefing note and concluded that the construction timeline presented by the TTC was off, shaving off as much as $250 million in the estimate. She also confirmed the double counting Ball described.

Former city manager Peter Wallace dismissed the TTC briefing note in March 2017, saying the costs for the LRT are “not known.”

Responding to Ball’s July email, Wright concluded the province should “avoid getting into weeds/debate about whether LRT costs have increased and how.”

“Work for all?” she asked, copying her colleagues in the premier’s and minister’s office. There was no reply email to Eby in the package obtained by the Star, so it’s not clear what the response to the mayor’s office was. Four pages were censored, citing cabinet records not accessible under provincial laws.

The vote was five days away.

“I see the fact of the politics in the room. I know I’m going uphill on this,” Matlow said in the council chamber just before the vote. “The plan that I’m proposing based on all the evidence we know to be true will provide more service to more people and use dollars more wisely.”

Council voted against his motion to return to the LRT plan 27-16. A vote on whether to move forward with construction of a subway, once staff update council on the costs, is expected in 2019.

In an emailed statement Thursday, Tory’s spokesperson Don Peat said the mayor is “focused on getting on with building the Bloor-Danforth subway extension into Scarborough along with the city’s entire transit network plan” and noted that the federal government and all three major parties in the upcoming provincial election support a subway.

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