National Polls

LA Times: Trump +0.7

People’s Pundit Daily: Trump +2.4

UPI/CVoter: Hillary +2 (2-way)

Boston Herald: Hillary +3

CNN/ORC: Trump +1 (2-way), Trump +2 (4-way)

Here’s the story of the race:

CNN/ORC poll Whites w/ college degrees:

Now: Clinton +13

'12: Romney +12 Non-college whites:

Now: Trump +44

'12: Romney +26 — Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) September 6, 2016

Should be +14 for Romney w/ whites with degrees — Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) September 6, 2016

The CNN poll found a huge shift toward Trump by the White working class which is being offset by a shift toward Hillary among White middle class suburbanites.

NBC News/SM – Hillary +6 (2-way), Hillary +4 (4-way)

This is a huge national poll of registered voters. It’s interesting, but all the other pollsters are shifting now to likely voters, which shows about a 5 point shift toward Trump.

Morning Consult:

Hillary +7 (Aug. 11-14)

Hillary +6 (Aug. 18-20)

Hillary +3 (Aug. 26-26)

Hillary +2 (Sept. 1-2)

Everyone now agrees this is pretty clear evidence of a tied race that has shifted toward Trump in recent weeks.

State Polls

13 Battleground States – CBS Hillary +2

North Carolina – CBS Hillary +4 (4-way)

Pennsylvania – CBS Hillary +8 (4-way)

Washington Post/Survey Monkey:

Arizona: Hillary +1

Colorado: Hillary +2

Florida: Hillary +2

Georgia: Tie

Texas: Hillary +1

Iowa: Trump +4

Maine: Hillary +6

Mississippi: Trump +2

Michigan: Hillary +2

Missouri: Trump +10

Nevada: Hillary +5

New Hampshire: Hillary +9

North Carolina: Tie

Ohio: Trump +3

Pennsylvania: Hillary +4

South Carolina: Trump +7

Utah: Trump +11

Virginia: Hillary +8

Wisconsin: Hillary +2

According to The Washington Post/Survey Monkey, this is what the race looks like among registered voters at the state level. The CNN/ORC poll which came out this morning found Trump +2 (4-way) and Trump +1 (2-way) among likely voters, but Hillary +3 among registered voters. What would a 5 point shift toward Trump look like in these states? Pretty significant, I would say.

CNN also found an enthusiasm gap:

“A majority of Clinton’s supporters say they’re less excited about voting this year than usual (55%) while most of Trump’s backers say they’re more excited this time around (56%).”

Trump has a solid lead over Mitt Romney in 2012 among White working class voters. Hillary’s edge over Mitt Romney in 2012 with White college educated, suburban voters is also waning. If the White working class sticks with Trump while the White middle class comes home to Trump due to “the softening,” that could be decisive.

Note: See also Ben Shapiro’s comments here. It’s amazing that I am saying that.