Coming off a loss to the Vikings, the Texans are needing a win during the most important game of the season. That’s right, it’s Colts week.

Bill O’Brien and the Texans (3-2) are hosting the Colts (2-3) on Sunday Night Football, and Al and Cris are hoping that Brock Osweiler’s offense will show more life than they did against the Vikings. Chuck Pagano’s Colts, on the other hand, are simply trying to protect Andrew Luck long enough to win the game and tie for the division lead.

There are many storylines to follow on Sunday night, including injured players, but these are the main factors for victory.

Beating the Colts’ Pass Defense

The Colts may have one of the more prolific passing offenses, currently ranked ninth in the league, but the defense is much worse. Ted Monachino’s defense is 30th in points and yards allowed and 28th in passing defense. Former Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer looked like a superstar for the Bears last week as he completed 33 of 43 passes for 397 yards and two touchdowns. Even Trevor Siemian completed 67% of his passes for 266 yards in only his second career start.

Brock Osweiler and the Texans passing offense has been sporadic at best this season, gaining over 200 yards only three times. And yes, Osweiler has looked jittery in the pocket, making too many mistakes, but this primetime matchup could be his golden opportunity to make a statement. Indianapolis is beaten up in the secondary, missing Patrick Robinson and Darius Butler, plus what seems like six dozen cornerbacks. All of Osweiler’s targets are finally healthy at the same time and could present a massive challenge for Indy, especially if Vontae Davis shadows DeAndre Hopkins and leaves backups for Will Fuller and C.J. Fiedorowicz.

Getting to Andrew Luck

Through five games, the Colts have appeared hell bent on damaging their future for the second year in a row. Andrew Luck has been sacked 20 times and knocked down 41 more, putting the Colts on a staggering pace for 64 allowed sacks, which would be fourth all-time. It doesn’t help that Indy has two rookie offensive linemen starting in center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Joe Haeg, but even veteran Anthony Castonzo has been struggling.

The Texans are the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense, and they have totaled 13 sacks in five games. Despite only having two interceptions on the season, Houston has been able to stop the Bears, Titans, and Chiefs. Of course, Luck is a different beast than Alex Smith, Marcus Mariota, and Jay Cutler with his gigantic size and cannon for an arm. Constant pressure will go a long way toward shutting him down and forcing mistakes. Turnovers will be the key to victory, especially if the Texans offense struggles.

Rushing Attack

Fun fact: Lamar Miller is currently in the first year of a four-year, $26 million contract with $14 million guaranteed. Here’s another fun fact: during the loss to Minnesota, Miller tallied a whole eight rushing attempts. EIGHT! Counting one catch for four yards, Miller tallied a total of nine touches. Minnesota is understandably a phenomenal defense, but Alfred Blue cranked off a 13-yard rush at one point, so they can be run against.

Miller is the supposed franchise running back that Houston always wanted, but Bill O’Brien decided to only use the former Dolphin three more times than backup Alfred Blue on Sunday. In the previous weeks, Miller touched the ball 32, 27, 25, and 22 times as he went over 100 total yards on all but one of those games. Miller gets stronger as he touches the ball, and he should be leading the way. It’s too early in Osweiler’s career to rely on the passing attack for victories, no matter how much money he makes. Indianapolis has a middle-of-the-road rushing defense, and O’Brien needs to rely on Miller, if only to provide a semblance of balance.

Prediction: Texans Win in Primetime

The Vikings loss may have been disheartening, but it was by no means a complete meltdown. Romeo Crennel’s defense stopped the rushing attack and managed to take down Sam Bradford. Clowney was in the backfield all game long, providing constant pressure and terrorizing running backs.

The Colts have a much worse offensive line than Minnesota and virtually no rushing attack. Houston should be able to pressure and stop Indy’s offense, but Brock Osweiler will need to do something positive and score a lot of points. Luck has shown the ability to come back late in games and guide his team to victory when only trailing by a touchdown or a field goal. The best bet is for Bill O’Brien to give Miller 20+ touches and set up play-action deep passes to Fuller and “Nuk”.

Sunday’s kickoff on NBC starts at 8:30 p.m. EST with the dulcet tones of Carrie Underwood. OOOHHH…Sunday night…