SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — History, at least when it comes to gold, oil and U.S. government crises, may surprise you.

The federal government is facing a shutdown next week but that doesn’t automatically mean that oil prices will take a hit from the weaker economic environment that implies, or that gold will get a safe-haven boost from the uncertainty it creates.

In fact, in the weeks ahead of the last government shutdown from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996, oil prices CLX23, generally climbed. Gold prices GCZ23, zigzagged before falling just days ahead of the actual shutdown.

And given the recent moves in gold and oil, it appears that traders in these markets barely even care about the risk of reduced government services, or even potential debt default.

As of Thursday, both gold and oil prices were set to end the week lower. Month to date, gold is down about 5% and oil has lost roughly 4%. At least part of those declines are attributable to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will eventually taper its bond-buying program, even though it unexpectedly didn’t at its meeting earlier this month.

“There is a fascinating display of emotional burnout relative to U.S. budget and debt-ceiling fights,” said Jonathan Citrin, founder and executive chairman at CitrinGroup, an investment advisory firm. “Both gold and oil now seem to shrug off the majority of fears in the shadow of yet another round of bickering in the nation’s capital.”

If the U.S. government doesn’t come up with a budget deal by the Oct. 1 start of the new fiscal year, it may face a partial shutdown. And Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has said that emergency steps to keep the government from hitting the debt ceiling will run out on Oct. 17.

“The political debate in Washington has become exasperatingly silly, ridiculous even, with gold and oil traders showing a similar opinion,” said Citrin.

U.S. President Barack Obama has said he won’t negotiate with Republicans over raising the debt limit but House Speaker John Boehner said the president has no choice.

Many traders “are making the assumption that an eleventh-hour deal will be reached, as always,” Citrin said.

History’s example

So as politicians argue over a budget deal and whether or by how much to increase the nation’s debt ceiling, oil and gold traders are standing by.

“The assumption is that the turmoil will create uncertainty and hurt business and consumer confidence, possibly slowing the economy slightly and causing unemployment to bump upwards,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research (SEER).

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And ordinarily, that sort of environment would be price-negative for oil, on the assumption that energy demand will suffer, and price-positive for gold, which investors tend to flock to in times of uncertainty.

But for oil, Charles Perry, chief executive officer at energy-consulting firm Perry Management, said he doesn’t expect any big changes in prices between now and either deadline for the budget deal or debt ceiling.

“Everyone is in a ‘wait and see’ mode,” he said. The “same will be true when a shutdown is started.”

In the 10 months after the last shutdown, drilling activity climbed and oil prices rose “a little,” Perry said.

They traded roughly around $20 a barrel at the end of the shutdown on Jan. 6, 1996, fell to lows under $18 by the end of that month then rallied near $26 in late-October that year.

Gold prices, meanwhile, spiked during the last government shutdown.

“There was a flight to safety. Gold prices rallied almost 4% as stocks sank almost the same amount,” said Richard Gotterer, managing director and senior financial advisor at Wescott Financial Advisory Group, adding that those percentage moves were “pretty significant” at that time.

Gold prices fell about a week before the December 16, 1995 shutdown began but had jumped above $400 by end of January 1996. And the gains continued, with prices trading near $415 by February 2 that year before dipping to $380 by mid-October.

This time around, Gotterer sees support for gold in the days ahead.

“My expectations are for a “contentious government over the next few weeks. This is going to make for interesting headlines,” he said. “Gold should have strong support in that type of environment.”

Deal or no deal

A last-minute deal is what most people seem to be counting on, but there’s always the chance that history will repeat itself with another government shutdown.

Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, said he doesn’t believe a shutdown should have any effect on gold whatsoever, and should instead imply less government deficit spending and therefore be positive for gold.

He admits, however, that many investors buy gold as a safe haven in light of such events. That’s a “dead-end strategy, as the effects on gold are almost always short lived and most investors aren’t nimble enough to profit from the event,” Lundin said.

“ A shutdown’s ‘real impact is on the investment climate and that is a longer-term slower growth effect.’ ” — James Williams, WTRG Economics

For oil, it’s not necessary the shutdown itself that will hurt prices.

“A shutdown doesn’t really do much one way or the other,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. “Its real impact is on the investment climate and that is a longer-term slower growth effect.”

“A government that borders on dysfunctional creates an investment climate of uncertainty, preventing anything close to historical [economic] recovery rates” — and that’s bearish for crude,” he said.

So in the absence of continual crises in the Middle East and North Africa, oil prices could be expected to fall well below $100 a barrel, he said.

And what happens if a government shutdown runs longer than we’ve seen in the past?

Perry, of Perry Management, spoke about oil, but his comment might hold true for gold too.

If for some reason a government shutdown or debt-ceiling stalemate ran for a much longer period of time, say three months or more, “then all bets are off,” Perry said. “We do not have any experience to know what to expect.”