UPDATE TUESDAY: Forecast calls for 1-2 inches of snow, wintry mix for parts of state. Latest update on timing.

The first snow of the season in New Jersey could happen later this week with colder weather in the forecast for the first full week of November.

Though there’s still uncertainty about the storm track, the National Weather Service says there’s about a 40% to 50% chance that northwestern New Jersey will receive some snow Thursday night.

The weather service isn’t ready to forecast possible amounts, though it’s likely that most of New Jersey would just receive rain or possible mixed precipitation, according to Sarah Johnson, a lead forecaster with the National Weather Service.

New Jersey could get its first bout of snow later this week depending on how the storm tracks as temperatures turn colder.

New Jersey could get its first bout of snow later this week depending on how the storm tracks as temperatures turn colder.Accuweather.com

Forecasters agree a cold front will move into our area on Thursday. How and where it interacts with a low pressure system will determine the type and amount of precipitation.

“That’s the biggest source of uncertainty,” Johnson said.

Rain or snow wouldn’t stick around long, though with Johnson describing the system as a “Thursday-night event.”

Wintry Mischief Brewing For End Of The Week



After a chilly start, temperatures will warm to above normal levels through tomorrow afternoon. However, wintry mischief is just around the corner with the threat of snow by Thursday night.https://t.co/ArQ6SKxviD#nywx #njwx #pawx — NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) November 4, 2019

Forecasters are already saying New Jersey could get more snow than usual this winter.

Still, any overnight snowfall into Friday wouldn’t likely disrupt schools since the vast majority of public districts are off Thursday and Friday for the annual teacher’s union convention in Atlantic City.

❄️ Snowy winter on the way? Here’s what 6 forecasters are predicting for the NJ region. #njwx https://t.co/juXCNAhUoU — Len Melisurgo (@LensReality) November 2, 2019

Meanwhile, the next three days in New Jersey should be mainly dry and sunny with daily highs in the 50s.

Nighttime lows will dip into the upper 30s and low 40s.

It’s a chilly start to Monday in New Jersey with much of the state still in the 20s and low 30s as of 7 a.m. The coldest spot is Walpack at 22 degrees. A frost advisory is in effect until 9 a.m. for parts of Bergen, Essex, Passaic and Union counties, the weather service says.

Good Monday Morning Everyone! As you head out the door this morning, don't forget a jacket! Most of the region is below... Posted by US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly on Monday, November 4, 2019

Over the weekend, the weather service determined an EF1 tornado touched down in Harding Township, raced through Chatham Township and Madison before lifting up in Florham Park on early Friday.

The tornado crushed cars, ripped siding off houses and pulled down wires in the area.

⛈ This just in... The @NWS_MountHolly office has confirmed an EF1 #tornado touched down in Morris County on Halloween night. #njwx https://t.co/RLN9LxEtft — Len Melisurgo (@LensReality) November 3, 2019

New Jersey could get its first bout of snow later this week depending on how the storm tracks as temperatures turn colder.

Jeff Goldman may be reached at jeff_goldman@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JeffSGoldman. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

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