No Post-Leadership Bump For Federal Conservatives

Scheer unknown by most voters

Toronto, June 12th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ amongst 1483 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, the Liberals have extended a lead going into the summer break, with more than 4 in ten (42%) saying they would support Justin Trudeau’s government if an election were held today, up 7 points since April (April 26: 35%).

Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives received no bump from their leadership convention, with just over a third (34%) saying they would vote Tory, but that represents a 1 point drop below their April numbers (April 26: 35%).

The NDP has lost some of its overall support (12%) as they drop 5 points since April (April 26: 17%), much of it contributing to the Liberal bump in support.

The Green Party (6%) is down 1 point (April 26: 7%), the BQ are unchanged at (5%), with (1%) saying they support another party.

Liberal to increase majority

If an election were held today, the Liberals would increase their majority, with the Conservatives winning 113 seats, the Liberals 204, the NDP 15, the BQ 5, and 1 for the Green.

The increase in Liberal support sees the Conservative, NDP, and BQ seat totals all decline. The Conservatives are down 24, the NDP down 21 with the BQ down 7. The Liberals see an increase of 52, with Green unchanged at 1.

Trudeau reverses approval dip of April

While Trudeau’s net favourable score has not returned to its post-election heights, it has returned to the positives. Almost half (48%) now say they approve of Trudeau’s performance, which just over 4 in 10 (41%) say they disapprove. Only a small proportion (11%) say they do not know. Trudeau’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is +7.

In the first test of his post leadership approval numbers, Andrew Scheer sees the approval of just under a quarter (23%) and the disapproval of just under a quarter (23%), with the majority (54%) saying they do not know about his performance right now. His net favourable score is 0.

Tom Mulcair sees an approval of more than a third (36%) and his disapproval is just under 3 in 10 (29%), though over a third (35%) say they do not know about his performance. His net favourable score is equal to Justin Trudeau at +7.

Trudeau seen by plurality as the best PM

Almost 4 in 10 see Justin Trudeau (39%) as the best PM. Andrew Scheer is seen by 2 in 10 (20%) as the best PM, which is an 8-point increase over the last measurement taken for Rona Ambrose (April 26: 12%). Tom Mulcair is favoured by fewer than 1 in 10 respondents.

“Justin Trudeau’s numbers have rebounded from April and he has recovered his comfortable lead going into the summer, which is generally a good time for a sitting government. Andrew Scheer’s introductory numbers don’t come as a surprise, with the majority saying they don’t know him. It isn’t a concern right now, he still has two years to define himself in contrast to the Prime Minister,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.