Australia will include its carryover credits from its over-achievement on the Kyoto Protocol in its efforts to meet the Paris target. Most countries don't count their credits, with just Brazil, Russia and the Ukraine potentially following Australia's lead and arguing at the United Nations international climate talks in Madrid this week for their inclusion. "Anything that keeps actual emissions in 2030 higher rather than lower will make achievement of the ultimate target more difficult and costly," Professor Garnaut said. Energy and Emissions Reductions Minister Angus Taylor is attending international climate talks in Madrid. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen "That is a good reason why Australia should reduce emissions by much more than 26 per cent to 28 per cent, no matter what the rules are about the use of carryover of credits from earlier targets. The later you take action, the costlier it will be to reach zero emissions by 2050, as agreed at Paris." "Within that framework, any technical point about using surpluses from earlier periods towards meeting our national target misses the point. The real point is whether we are on track for zero emissions by 2050."

Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor last week released projections that for the first time forecast Australia was set to over-achieve on its Paris commitment by 16 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions (Mt CO2-e), with Kyoto carryover credits. Australia's emissions need to fall a cumulative 695 Mt CO2-e by 2030 under the Paris target, including about 411 Mt CO2-e of carryover credits. Loading The Investor Group on Climate Change, representing institutional investors with over two trillion dollars of assets under management, including superannuation funds, is opposed to the use of carryover credits, which policy director Erwin Jackson said delay the "inevitable" transition to emissions-free industries. Mr Jackson, who has observed international climate negotiations for 30 years, said the delay "just increases economic costs which come at a later date".

"Global markets are already shifting away from emissions-intensive goods and services. The government needs to make a choice, does it want a smooth transition to zero emissions, or does it want a path with delayed climate action and increased climate risk to the economy?" Professor Garnaut's book Superpower argues Australia would be far better off if it pursued a swift transition to lower emissions and grow the renewable energy and low-emissions industries. A spokesman for Mr Taylor said no country should be penalised for meeting its emissions targets, as they are a basis for greater ambition. "Australia has an enviable record as a world leader in renewable energy investment; our projected 411 Mt CO2-e over-achievement of our Kyoto 2020 target; and our fully-costed plan to meet our Paris commitment," the spokesperson said. The federal Energy Department attributed Australia's emissions progress to the growing contribution of large-scale renewable energy projects, growing use of rooftop solar panels and the government's $3.5 billion Climate Solutions Package. It forecast 51 per cent of the National Electricity Market will come from renewable energy by 2030.