In 1981, as TTC chief general manager, I recommended the Kennedy subway station be connected to the Scarborough Town Centre by a streetcar line on a separate right-of-way. It was the best value-for-money option.

It would easily handle the 30 year projected ridership and provide excellent rider access. It cost a quarter of the other option: a Rapid Transit (RT) line using unproven “Intermediate Capacity Transit System” (ICTS) technology.

As is happening today, pure, parochial politics interfered.

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The province would only fund the connection if the TTC built an RT. This was to be “Scarborough’s Yellow Brick Road.” They also wanted an RT to demonstrate the ICTS technology to the world. The technology was not unique. No other transit authority bought the system.

It provided 20,000 riders per hour capacity. Today the RT line has only reached 5,000. It was supposed to be driverless. But drivers had to be added.

Four decades later, the TTC, its riders and Toronto ratepayers are stuck with Bill Davis’s RT white elephant. Professional transit planning advice was ignored in favour of pandering to the Scarborough electorate.

Sound familiar?

There are many well known reasons why Mayor Tory’s expensive, stubborn support for a one stop “vanity” subway connection will produce another transit white elephant.

A city-created Expert Panel found a modern LRT was superior to a subway extension on all counts: cost, transit service, economic development, sustainability and social impact.

Non partisan, Pembina Institute, concluded the LRT offered the best value for the taxpayer dollar. They forecast the original three stop subway would cost twice as much as a seven stop LRT — and attract eight million less riders a year.

Metrolinx recommended replacing the aging Scarborough RT with a modern LRT. A subway is “not a worthwhile use of money.” The province is willing to pay the $1.8 billion cost of an LRT.

The cost of Mayor Tory’s one-stop subway extension could easily balloon from the approved $3.35 billion to beyond $4 billion. This will exceed the total government approved funding envelope of $3.56 billion. And that’s up from $2 billion only three years ago.

Just before the July 2016 vote a misleading TTC memo to council falsely escalated the cost of the LRT to $2.7 billion from $1.8 billion by pushing the completion date forward by an incorrect six years.

The subway option places a $910 million tax burden on the shoulders of Toronto ratepayers — $745 million of this has to come from a property tax surcharge for the next 30 years.

TTC staff will have updated cost and ridership estimates by September. City staff says they can’t release the estimates until January 2019 — well after the November election. How convenient for the mayor and council.

Last week, Star reporter, Jennifer Pagliaro, uncovered further reasons to question the subway decision.

The July 2016 decision in favour of the one stop subway over an LRT was based on exaggerated design information by city staff, rushed input from consultants and on “hand-drawn” sketches.

City staff also “significantly down played the progress of the seven stop LRT alternative …” The LRT was actually 30 per cent design complete at the time of the vote. Council was told it was only 5 to 10 per cent. Staff claimed the subway design was 5 per cent complete when it was closer to 2 per cent.

Tory has said, “There is no doubt the original decision to cancel a planned LRT in Scarborough and extend the subway instead was made without enough information or process …” Tory is repeating the flawed process he’s says he’s against by ignoring the overwhelming case against a subway and refusing to initiate a value-for-money analysis of the two options,

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When Tory talks about his SmartTrack plan he’s committed to a cost-benefit analysis on each station. “The express purpose of what we are doing here is to move forward with a fact-based, transparent process.” So why not on the Scarborough subway?

If Tory is really committed to transparent transit decision making he should demonstrate that obligation. If he has nothing to hide with respect to the Scarborough subway’s costs and ridership, he should direct city staff to report the latest cost estimates before the November election.

And he should call for a value-for-money analysis of the two options before further council action. Mr. Mayor, if you stand for transparency, act like it.

R. Michael Warren is a former corporate director, Ontario deputy minister, TTC chief general manager and Canada Post CEO. r.michael.warren@gmail.com is a former corporate director, Ontario deputy minister, TTC chief general manager and Canada Post CEO.

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