TORONTO

Rob Ford has a rocky road ahead of him if he wants to reclaim the keys to the mayor’s office next fall.

Two days into 2014 and surrounded by hordes of media, Ford wasted no time in relaunching his bid for re-election on Oct. 27, boasting about his “strongest track record” and being “the best mayor the city has ever had.”

But the polls aren’t so certain.

A November Ipsos Reid survey tested four scenarios with different declared or likely candidates and the mayor fails to win or come close in any of them.

In a three-way vote, TTC Chair Karen Stintz would beat Ford and former councillor David Soknacki, who threw his hat in the ring this week. Stintz would claim roughly 52% of the vote, Ford would have 33% and Soknacki, 14%.

If former Ontario PC leader John Tory came in, he would take 41% of the vote, putting Stintz and Ford in second and third place respectively. If MP Olivia Chow were to run instead of Tory, she would beat Ford with 44% support.

If all five candidates were in a race, Chow would still win with 36% of the vote, followed by Tory at 28%, Ford at 20%, Stintz at 13% and Soknacki at 3%.

The poll also indicated 62% of participants agreed there’s no way they’d consider Ford for mayor.

But these numbers are in stark contrast to the latest poll by Forum Research Inc. released this week, which indicated Ford would beat all candidates in similar “trial heat” scenarios at 35%.

His approval rating also sharply jumped five points to 47% since the company’s last poll on Dec. 9.

And the reason for the rise? The ice storm — even without the mayor declaring a state of emergency.

“He’s not high like his honeymoon period, but he’s high for what’s gone on for what’s gone on for the past two or three months,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

“We saw Hurricane Sandy hit right at the end of the Obama campaign and he got a boost from that and Rob Ford is going to get a boost from this ice storm. He was seen every day and went to a number of community housing centres and talked to people. He was there to take the brunt of the anger, I think he got points for that.”

Ford’s tenure has been rife with controversy since he took the reins in 2010. Among them include publicly admitting having smoked crack cocaine, having associations with drug dealers, being investigated by police and spouting an obscenity on live television about oral sex.

Ford didn’t provide comment but Councillor Doug Ford, who will run the mayor’s re-election campaign, said his brother has turned things around and is “looking like a champion.”

“The only poll that counts is the one on election day,” Doug Ford said. “You’ve got to keep working hard, non-stop for the residents of this city and we’re going to keep working hard round-the-clock. If everyone stays focused, Rob will give them a good challenge.”

Given all that — can Ford still seal the deal on the top job at city hall?

Nelson Wiseman, an associate professor in political science at the University of Toronto, said in order for Ford to win in 2014, he can make himself appear more like a leader — as some said he did during the ice storm.

“He isn’t a leader, but he can try to make it as if he is,” Wiseman said. “He’s going to make it look like he’s running against the establishment but Rob Ford doesn’t need a strategy, he does what he wants to do.”

Wiseman warns Ford won’t have the advantages of steamrolling his “Stop the gravy train” platform, which worked for him in 2010. On top of that, there is the possibility police may still charge him and “in the eyes of the public, once someone is charged, their name is tarred.”

“Last time in the debates, he kept tearing strips off George Smitherman for squandering all that money,” he said. “So who is he going to tear strips off? John Tory or Olivia Chow? They’re going to tear strips off him — ‘Hey, look, are you going to be smoking crack-cocaine again in your office?’”

Leah Morrigan, who runs a Toronto image consulting firm for men and who has politicians for clients, said if Ford wants to improve his public appearance, he needs to start losing weight, wearing clothes that fit him properly and getting rid of novelty ties from his wardrobe.

“He just looks so unkempt all the time, even though he’s wearing a suit,” she said. “He doesn’t respect himself and how can (he) possibly respect anyone else? Those ties — it says not to take him seriously. The world is not amused by Rob Ford.”

Morrigan said she’s “not political” and empathizes with the mayor’s possibly tumultuous upbringing, but he needs to make changes within himself and become a happier person in order to be a better mayor for Torontonians. He also needs to become a better communicator at press conferences and in council.

“I see a little boy, a blamer,” she said. “Your image really stems from your self-esteem. He’s extremely disrespectful. This is not a good image point.”

The mayor has recently said he will not follow through on threats to sue city council for stripping him of his powers in November. Ford has told CP24 he has spent over half a million dollars in court between his conflict of interest case and defending himself in a libel suit. He said he will let the voters decide at election time whether or not councillors did the right thing.

And Ford won’t have to do much to win re-election, said Dr. Oren Amitay, a registered clinical psychologist and a part-time instructor at Ryerson University.

“As long as (Ford) keeps repeating he’s the best mayor ever and money-conscious, people are going to say he’s lived up to his promises,” Amitay said. “People will hear what they want or need to hear ... His supporters and the people on the fence are going to say he owned up to everything and he just wants to move forward regardless of the very questionable way he ended up acknowledging things and the many lies he told throughout the entire process."

Meanwhile, Pierre Trudeau’s former press secretary said Ford’s “enemy strategy” — where everyone’s labelled an enemy, including the media and Premier Kathleen Wynne — “doesn’t work very well.”

“I doubt (Ontario PC leader) Tim Hudak will take on this type of disruptive, unpleasant person,” said Patrick Gossage. “I can’t imagine him in caucus screaming and yelling. Do you want this Ford character as one of the faces of government in waiting? I don’t think so.”

Adam Giambrone, who dropped out of the 2010 Toronto mayoral race following a public sex scandal and re-entered politics last year as the NDP candidate in Scarborough-Guildwood during the provincial byelection, said he couldn’t really offer Ford much advice.

“He does seem to be very good at coming out of a crisis,” Giambrone said. “I would only say that most people know everyone is flawed including themselves and therefore are often willing to forgive others. Whether Rob Ford’s list of transgressions still allows for this is what will be tested in the election.”

Giambrone predicted Ford will likely do what anyone who runs does — acknowledge his failings and emphasize his strengths.

“Not a brilliant strategy, but one that both has worked and not worked for aspiring politicians or those seeking re-election,” he said.

Former Toronto Mayor Mel Lastman, who also faced his fair share of public turmoil during his time in office — including announcing a 14-year affair with a former employee and being the father of her two sons — previously said Ford couldn’t “be that stubborn and run a city.”

But he, too, couldn’t offer any advice to Ford this time around.

“After what he did? I’m not getting involved,” Lastman said.