Most Republicans believe their party has weathered the 2018 storm and brighter days are ahead in 2020. But that perspective doesn’t mean the GOP’s chances of retaking the House are particularly good.

Even if the national political environment isn’t as bad for the GOP as the midterms when they suffered a net loss of 40 House seats, there’s little evidence that President Donald Trump will dramatically improve his 2016 performance in key competitive districts next year.

That makes it difficult to envision Republicans winning those races, particularly without stellar candidates. And in some places, such as California and New Jersey, the GOP’s strongest House challengers (including Michelle Steel and Tom Kean Jr.) are running in difficult districts, against strong incumbents, or both.

With a combination of Republicans’ self-inflicted wounds, slow recruiting or suburbs continuing to shift against the president, Democratic chances of winning have improved in a dozen House races. Those rating changes include:

One race shifted toward the GOP: