Unfortunately for nonprofits, the new rules are going to discourage charitable donations.

At a time when discretionary government services are diminishing, and as deeper cuts are contemplated, the role of nonprofits in filling the holes in the social safety net is becoming more essential. Charities have been stepping up to provide emergency relief and long-term aid for those who lost everything in California’s wildfires, and in the floods and hurricanes that decimated the Gulf Coast and Puerto Rico. They’ve responded to the mass shootings in Las Vegas and Texas. And day in, day out, they work to meet the needs of abused women, hungry children, the homeless, the disabled.

It’s never easy to keep social service charities running; they operate on tight margins in the best of times. Now the new tax law, according to estimates from the Council on Foundations, will drain $16 billion to $24 billion a year from the nonprofit sector going forward.

The problem is that while the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act preserves the deductibility of charitable contributions, it restructures the system so that millions will lose incentives to give. Most people donate from their hearts to causes they care about, regardless of taxes. It is undeniable, however, that the reward for giving will go down and the cost of giving will go up…

…The Tax Cuts Act simultaneously raises the standard deduction to $24,000 for a married couple. For millions it will no longer make sense to itemize, and that too means fewer charitable gifts: You can only deduct donations if you itemize.

Twenty years ago, the estate tax exemption was $600,000 for an individual — estates worth more than that were taxed. Next year, the exemption will be over $11.2 million for an individual. Whatever your views on estate taxes, it should be clear that exempting larger and larger amounts to lower the tax burden on heirs erodes the incentive to leave bequests to charity.