I honestly did not expect to be a witness to the end of civilization when I started blogging those many years ago. Though I thought I could clearly see where the trends (energy, climate, social) were heading and tried to lay out the arguments for why we needed to change our ways, I thought that the really bad outcomes would post-date my life. I grieved for my children, of course. But never really thought I would be witness to the end game itself.

Now I'm not so sure. In fact I think that recent developments in climate science, energy science, and political science make it clear that we have entered the end game already. My Italian colleague, Ugo Bardi, speaks of the Seneca Cliff phenomena (Seneca the Roman philosopher who noted that prosperity builds gradually and then declines rapidly as if falling off a cliff). My own simulation models of civilization show a gradual build up of wealth with a sudden falling down once the limits of growth are reached. I just didn't realize how close to the edge of the cliff we were.

We will not be able to save civilization as we know it by any kind of technological magic. The rate of onset of climate change (notice the weather anomalies of late?) and the catastrophic collapse of fossil fuel energies (fracked wells are falling in production as we speak) not to mention the collapse of fisheries, soil depletions, and the insane left-vs-right political strife all mark the clear signatures of collapse, but this time on a global scale.

On the energy front, the hope was that alternative energy sources such as solar or wind would replace carbon-based fuels to provide the kind of power we would need to carry on with civilization as we understood it. That is not happening. Not only is the rate of conversion from carbon to green insufficient, relative to the rate of climate disruption, for example, but we still have no real certainty that these alternatives would ever be able to provide the substitute power needed to keep civilization going, even if in some reduced material form, and provide the energy needed to adapt to the new climate regimen (and provide clean water, etc.). Its a race and humanity is losing.

I'm calling the game over. I just cannot see a solution that has humanity going on in any kind of lifestyle that we have grown accustomed to in the 21st century.

Its all about the trends and relative rates of change. Its all about the momentum. Global warming is baked into the cake at this point. Even if we were to miraculously find a way to extract and sequester CO2 from our atmosphere we still could not prevent catastrophic warming. We waited too late to react.

I've taken as many factors into account as I can. I've processed the data as best I can. I hope I am wrong in my conclusions, but so far I haven't been (except for thinking I would be gone before all of the s**t hit the fan). Go back in the archives of this blog if you don't believe me. I've called it and it is coming to pass. I'm very sorry I could not have been more effective in convincing more and more influential people that these systemic issues were coming to a head.

My advice is head for the hills.

On a more hopeful note, those that do head for the hills may find ways to survive in spite of a civilization collapse. I'm not predicting the near-term extinction of our species, just the loss of a technological society. Indeed, such a collapse would be necessary to save some of the biosphere for future efflorescence of new species, as has happened in previous major die-offs. What I sincerely hope is that some of the survivors will attempt to preserve knowledge, key knowledge (as in systems science) with which to restart the social process, but the next time, with understanding of the mistakes we have made, like blind belief in capitalism, materialism, and economic growth.

I'm certain I won't make it through a collapse (too old). But I hope some of my offerings in this blog and in my book with coauthor Mike Kalton do. The principles of systems science hold the key to re-discovering the other sciences. Survivors and their progeny will be well served by that knowledge. A straightforward example is the nature of permaculture. Systems science is built into the concepts and practices - treating a self-sustaining community as a system. If you want to enhance your progeny's chances of survival, start a permaculture commune. The descriptions can be found in the archives of this blog.

And, good luck.