This is your lucky day. Why put yourself through a year of nervous waiting to discover what the biggest international news stories will be in 2017?

To end the suspense, here is a confidential peek at the Top 10 world headlines of the coming year.

The 21st century unravels

Decades from now, historians will remember 2017 as the year when everything changed. It will resemble 100 years ago when the First World War unleashed forces that ultimately produced the horrors of the 20th century. Donald Trump’s election, by accelerating America’s retreat from its global role, will be the catalyst, with its echoes being heard worldwide. Undermined in the process will be the very democratic institutions and values that were put into place to prevent history from repeating itself.

Trump’s presidency implodes

Donald Trump will begin his presidency with the lowest approval ratings in modern American history. And that may be his high mark. His proposed policies, which were incoherent and contradictory during the campaign, will be proven disastrous when he tries to implement them. Tax reductions for his friends, massive social spending cuts for the rest of Americans and a feckless foreign policy that places the planet at risk: except to the delusional, this is not a recipe for political success.

America risks war with China

All signs suggest that the first global crisis for the new Trump administration will be with China. It was no accident that Trump broke decades of American policy and spoke directly to the leader of Taiwan. Afterward, the president-elect indicated that he might scrap the “one China” policy if the U.S. doesn’t get a “better deal” from China. Quarrelling with China over trade or military manoeuvres is one thing. Challenging China over Taiwan would risk war.

Russia’s Putin makes his move

The real winner in the U.S. election was Vladimir Putin. In his wildest dreams, he could not have expected that America would end up being led by a pro-Russian president with a secretary of state whom Putin regards as a personal “friend.” As Russia prepares to celebrate the centenary of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, what better time for Putin to indulge his fantasy of trying to regain control over Ukraine and other parts of the former Soviet Union? He will try.

Europe’s far-right parties surge

Fuelled by racism and a fear of immigrants, Europe’s once-marginal populist wave will achieve dramatic breakthroughs in 2017. Far-right political parties will surge in Dutch general elections in March, and in France later in the spring. In their aggressive effort to break into the mainstream, they will exploit the same angry, nationalist mood that Trump so effectively tapped. The only exception, although just barely, will be in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel will eke out a re-election victory in spite of her pro-immigration policies.

Stain of Aleppo resolves nothing

There is little doubt that Syrian and Russian forces committed war crimes in December in the battle over the historic Syrian city of Aleppo. But the international uproar that this generated will not last. The Syrian civil war will continue, resembling the same ongoing insurgency that still plagues neighbouring Iraq. The only positive note is that the terrorist group Daesh, also known as ISIS, is on its way to being defeated, at least in Syria and Iraq. But, in all of the Middle East and beyond, the battlefields will still be littered with danger.

Iran’s nuclear deal survives

Against all odds, Iran and the world’s major powers, including the United States, reached a historic nuclear agreement in 2015. It shocked Iran’s enemies, such as Israel’s government and American conservatives, who predicted Iran would violate the deal. Iran has done no such thing. In the campaign, Trump promised to “scrap” the agreement. But there are increasing signs this will be reversed.

Turkey edges closer to dictatorship

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Not long ago, Turkey was regarded as a model for the developing world. It was a secular Muslim nation, straddling Asia and Europe, proud of its democratic traditions. But that, it appears, is no more. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is using a failed military coup to jail activists, leftist and any journalist that challenges him. As he increases his power, the haunting spectre of dictatorship looms large.

Britain loses faith in Brexit

Last June, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union. But polls suggest there are growing signs of “buyer’s remorse.” The route out of the European Union is proving to be long and tortuous, and the negative impact on the economy is already being felt. Meanwhile, Europe, for its part, says it will be tough and unforgiving when negotiations begin. Might there be a second referendum to ratify the final agreement? That possibility is no longer far-fetched.

The nuclear threat returns

Not since the Cold War has the fear of a nuclear strike been so genuine. U.S. military officials say that North Korea already has a nuclear capability, and some say it may be able to hit the western United States with a nuclear strike by 2020. In addition, if a Trump-led America retreats from its alliances, there will be talk in the rest of Asia — and in the Middle East — about whether they should explore their own nuclear option. The ticking of the Doomsday Clock resumes.

My track record

So how have I done in the past? On behalf of narcissists everywhere, I have taken the outrageous step of scoring myself. For my 2014 and 2015 predictions, I was correct on roughly 60 per cent of them.

This past year, I also scored 60 per cent. (Do I detect a pattern here?) I had six correct predictions for 2016, including on China, Europe and Latin America.

But the ones I got wrong were eye-popping — such as predicting that Hillary Clinton would win the U.S. presidency and that Britain would vote to stay in the European Union. In my defence, I quote an expression that I could imagine only Trump using if he were in my position: “No one is perfect … that’s why pencils have erasers.”

Happy New Year.

Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News.

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