NEW YORK (Reuters) - A remarkable rebound in crude oil prices on Friday may have caught oil bears by surprise but the market’s bearish technical picture has barely changed, meaning it was still vulnerable to hit $25 a barrel or below, technical analysts said.

A car speeds past pump jacks on an oil field near Bakersfield, California January 18, 2015. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

U.S. crude jumped 12 percent on Friday to settle at $29.44 a barrel on renewed speculation that producer group OPEC will cut output to rein in a worldwide glut in oil. U.K.-based Brent oil rose 11 percent to close at $33.36.

The rally came after U.S. crude fell 14 percent in four earlier session, hitting 12-year lows.

Despite that, Matthew Sferro, who studies technical moves behind crude prices for New York’s Informa Global Markets, said it will “take a lot more to change the outlook moving forward.”

Sferro was one of two analysts who told Reuters earlier this week that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark in U.S. crude could plumb $25 a barrel in days. A day after he made that forecast, WTI fell from around $27 to $26.05 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2003.

On Friday, Sferro said his analysis showed that for WTI to ward off the threat of mid-$20 levels, it would have to rise above a Jan. 28 level of $34.82. That would be $5.16, or 17 percent, more than the $29.66 level it reached during Friday’s peak.

“Unless we see a continued rise, we will likely delay, rather than end, the possibility of a new leg lower,” said Sferro, who still sees WTI testing its September 2003 low of $26.65 and taking the $25.04 support from April that year.

For Brent, Sferro’s bullish target was its Feb. 4 high of $35.84. If it does not get there, it could test its Jan. 26 low of $29.27 and Jan. 20 trough of $27.10, before reaching $24.36.

The $24.36 target is based on a 100 percent Fibonacci extension level, arrived at by deducting the difference between Brent’s Jan. 4 high of $38.99 and Jan. 20 low of $27.10, and subtracting again from a Feb. 21, 2004 peak of $36.25.

Fawad Razaqzada of forex.com in London, the other analyst who had predicted oil’s drop to $25, said WTI had to scale $34.50 and Brent $36 for his outlook to change.

“If WTI moves back below $27.50, a potential drop towards $25 would become highly likely. If Brent breaks back below $30, then $25 will be in focus,” he said.