Ledyard King

USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — The Democratic strategist who helped guide Barack Obama to victory in Florida eight years ago believes Hillary Clinton lost the Sunshine State thanks to a last-minute surge – much of it in the Interstate 4 corridor – that turned the tide in Donald Trump’s favor.

With slightly more than two-thirds of Florida’s vote cast before Election Day, Clinton had built a commanding lead of some 247,000 votes, according to a recent analysis by Steve Schale, a Tallahassee-based political consultant who managed Obama’s 2008 campaign in Florida.

But Trump more than made up the difference on Election Day, amassing a 360,000-vote lead on his way to capturing the state. Trump won Florida by nearly 113,00 votes.

“Almost everything was landing right on target for her to win,” Schale said. “However, Trump just crushed Election Day. There is no other way to look at it.”

Schale pins a lot of Trump’s victory on his performance along the I-4 Corridor that stretches from Tampa through Orlando and to Daytona Beach. Trump outperformed 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney in Volusia, Pinellas and Polk counties while Clinton did better than Obama four years ago in Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties. Clinton won Hillsborough (Tampa) by roughly the same margin as Obama did.

In the end, Clinton won the I-4 counties by almost 162,000 votes. But Schale said it’s important to note that she had a nearly 200,000-vote lead coming out of the early vote/vote-by-mail period, meaning Trump won Election Day in the region by some 35,000 ballots.

“Here the Trump surge on Election Day is very evident,” Schale wrote. “Overall, Clinton won the early phase with 56.3% of the two-party vote (in the I-4 Corridor), though only won 47.3% of the Election Day vote – a surge which exceeded his statewide average.”

So what explains the late surge? Schale said there were a number of factors, including FBI Director James Comey’s announcement 11 days before the election that he had reopened the inquiry into her use of a private email server.

“The combination of two unliked candidates, Trump's success at driving the narrative into the ground, and all of the late-breaking issues going to Trump, it ended up being the perfect storm on November 8th, or in Trump's case, the perfect 3-wood over water to that green 250 yards away,” Schale wrote.

As it turns out, Florida and its 29 electoral votes didn’t matter. With 306 electoral votes, Trump would have reached the necessary 270 votes to win the election without the Sunshine State thanks to victories in the traditionally blue states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump flips St. Lucie County

LEAVING CONGRESS BUT NOT PUBLIC SERVICE

A new Congress won’t get sworn in until Jan. 3, but Thursday turned out to be the last day of legislative business for 10 House members from Florida. Some will head into the sunset, but a few figure to resurface, including:

Republican Jeff Miller, who is being eyed for secretary of Veterans Affairs in the Trump Cabinet.

Democrat Gwen Graham, who is expected to toss her hat in for the 2018 gubernatorial race.

Republican John Mica, who lost re-election and then was passed over as Trump’s Transportation secretary and told reporters he would like to continue public service in some capacity.

Democrat Patrick Murphy, who was unable to unseat GOP Sen. Marco Rubio last month but could run in 2018, when there will be open seats for governor and the Florida Cabinet.

“I don’t know exactly what it will be yet,” he told my colleague Isadora Rangel, of Treasure Coast Newspapers.

Politics is full of second acts so don’t be surprised to see some of these folks soon again.

Patrick Murphy mulls 2018 run after Marco Rubio defeat; but for what?

WORKING FOR RIVAL MAKES CARSON RARE

The choice of Palm Beach County resident Ben Carson as the incoming Housing and Urban Development Secretary doesn’t just mean Trump’s Cabinet will have a Florida flavor to it. It also signifies a bit of history.

If the Senate confirms him, Carson would join a short list of former political rivals who ended up working for the candidate they lost to during the campaign.

Only six of the previous 408 department heads since the McKinley administration (1897-1901) ran against the president for their party’s nomination, according to the University of Minnesota’s nonpartisan blog, Smart Politics. The retired neurosurgeon would be the seventh.

Interestingly, two of the six worked for President Barack Obama: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and, notably, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The last Republican losing candidate who went to work for his rival was Jack Kemp, who served as secretary of Housing and Urban Development under George H.W. Bush.

Carson was one of the first presidential candidates to endorse the real estate mogul.

While serving in the Cabinet has been rare for presidential rivals, joining them on the ticket has not been.

There are plenty of examples where the nominee tapped an adversary as his running mate, including John Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson in 1960; Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush in 1980; John Kerry/John Edwards in 2004; and Barack Obama/Joe Biden in 2008.

Contact Ledyard King at lking@gannett.com; Twitter: @ledgeking