The Jaguars followed up a successful free agency period with a remarkable draft class. The roster overhaul — along with a mini breakout year for the offense in 2015 — has a franchise that spent the last ten years as an afterthought in the football world thinking playoffs. It’s only May, and Jacksonville is already one of the trendiest picks to make a surprise playoff run.

We’re here to temper the hype. The Jaguars will be a better football team in 2016, but here are five reasons they’ll finish below .500 and miss out on the playoffs.

1. Blake Bortles is still a question mark

Let’s pump the breaks on the Blake Bortles-franchise quarterback talk. The 24-year-old was a fantasy football star in 2015, and certainly made some good strides after a bad rookie season, but he is still a flawed quarterback. For the Jaguars to compete for a playoff spot, they’ll need more consistent play from Bortles in the pocket, and it’s not a given that they’ll get it.

He’s still uncomfortable standing in the pocket and going through his reads. At the first hint of pressure — real or imagined — Bortles’ first instinct is to tuck the ball and run rather than keeping his eyes down field and his feet in position to throw.

(A better quarterback calmly steps up in the pocket and hits Marqise Lee streaking up the sideline for an easy score. Bortles panicked in a clean pocket and almost threw an interception)

Bortles is one of the better quarterbacks in the league at eluding pressure. He routinely slips out of sacks with slick spin moves and just pure strength. But his willingness to get outside of the pocket can get him into trouble. He’ll run into some pressure on his own, making his offensive line look worse than it is. This is a problem most scrambling quarterbacks have and one that will take more than few years to fix.

The volume stats paint Bortles as one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the league. He topped the 4,000-yard mark through the air and finished second in touchdown passes with 35. His rate stats tell another story, however. He finished below league-average in passer rating, completion percentage and interception percentage and right on the league average for yards-per-attempt. I’m going to stay away from the lazy “he only produced in garbage time” argument, but consistency is a big issue for him and it’s evident in the numbers.

Bortles took a big step in 2015, but the step he must take in 2016 to get the Jags to the postseason is much larger.

2. They’re banking on young unknowns on defense

This offseason, the Jaguars added a lot of talent to a defense that has been in desperate need of it since the days of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. The additions to the defense — especially the draft picks — are what really have people thinking Jacksonville can make a push for the playoffs. But draft picks aren’t sure things. Jalen Ramsey projects to be a star, but defensive backs drafted in the top-10 in the last few years do not have a great track record. Myles Jack’s knee may not be the issue it was thought to be before the draft, but it’s still a big concern. And Dante Fowler Jr. is coming off a serious knee injury as well. I expect all three of these guys to be good players, but it may take a year — or three — before this unit grows into something special.

3. The AFC South will be better

Football’s worst division in 2015 should be a lot better in 2016. No matter what you think of Texans QB Brock Osweiler — I’m not overly optimistic — he’s certainly a better option than Brian Hoyer. Houston’s running game should also improve thanks to the addition of Lamar Miller, who was criminally underused in Miami. The Colts will be better, too, with Andrew Luck ready to return. After a productive draft, Indy’s line should do a better job of protecting him.

Even with all of their improvements, the Jaguars haven’t surpassed either of those teams. The Texans were four wins better than Jacksonville a year ago; the Colts are a 10- or 11-win team with Luck on the field. The Jags got better, but did they get six games better in one offseason?

And if the Jaguars do not get the South’s playoff spot, will they really be able to surpass the Bengals, Steelers, Broncos, Jets or Chiefs for one of the two wild card spots? Unlikely.

4. We don’t know if Gus Bradley is a good coach

This may be the biggest concern for the team. Bradley, who helped build the Seahawks defense, has done nothing to improve Jacksonville’s defense during his three seasons with the team. His reputation as a defensive mind is built on his work with a Seattle defense that was loaded with All-Pro talent while working under a defensive-minded coach in Pete Carroll. The Seahawks defense evolved after Bradley left, while the Jaguars remained committed to the same principles Seattle was using in 2012. Did Bradley produce Seattle’s defensive system or was he a product of it? I think we know the answer to that question.

5. It’s not a given the pass rush will be markedly better

I like the additions the Jaguars made to their defensive line. Malik Jackson was a prized free agent. Third-round pick Yannick Ngakoue has a high ceiling and fourth-round pick Sheldon Day should be a solid contributor. Plus Fowler will be back healthy after missing 2015 with a torn ACL.

Even if all sounds great in theory, there are legitimate concerns about this line’s ability produce consistent pressure. Jackson was a good interior rusher in Denver, but he was bookended by two All-Pros in DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. He still managed only five sacks. Ngakoue is only 21 and will need some developmental time before he’s ready to play at a high level. Fowler hasn’t played a snap in the NFL and will need to knock off some rust. And Day was a fourth-round pick for a reason.

Even if the defensive line comes together like the team expects it to, it could take a season or two. And that’s been a recurring theme throughout this list. The Jaguars are undoubtedly a team on the rise but a lot of things have to go Jacksonville’s way — the rookies all have to play well, Bortles has to continue his development, all of the injured players have to return without any problems, etc. — for this team to even sniff the playoffs in 2016. A 9-7 record is probably this team’s ceiling if it catches every break and that still won’t be enough to crack the postseason in the AFC.