The FHFA has just released it revised "draw" projections for the GSEs, i.e., money which US taxpayers will have to spend to keep the nationalized securitization monsters alive. The reality: after already receiving $148 billion from Tim Geithner's US Treasury, the FHFA now estimates that its downside case will result in additional $220 billion over the next 2 years, for a total of $363 billion through 2013. And since this is based on Moody's housing price forecasts, two things are certain: (i) the "upside" case of only $221 billion in cumulative draws can be heckled, and (ii) the final cost will likely be well north of half a trillion. Of course, by this point it will become clear that Fannie and Freddie have no idea whose mortgages they own (as they will discover post their subpoenaing of JPM and others), and the real cost will be potentially well in the trillions, and require a second full scale nationalization of what are already nationalized companies. Actually there is one more point: by 2013 the US will long be insolvent, the Fed will be monetizing everything (say in your best Tepper voice), and the NYSE and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange will have merged in futile pursuit of synergies to generate $0.01 of revenue away from the 99.999% dark pool dominanted marketplace, and so what happens 3 years down the line is completely irrelevant.

From the FHFA:

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today released projections of the financial performance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) including potential draws under the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) with the U.S. Department of the Treasury. To date, the Enterprises have drawn $148 billion from the Treasury Department under the terms of the PSPAs. Under the three scenarios used in the projections, cumulative Enterprise draws range from $221 billion to $363 billion through 2013.



“These projections are intended to give policymakers and the public useful snapshots of potential outcomes for the taxpayer support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” said FHFA Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco. “These are not predictions; the results reflect the potential effects of a limited set of hypothetical changes in house prices, a key variable driving credit losses for the Enterprises."

And the kicker:

“Much like the recently published Conservator’s Report, FHFA is releasing these projections to enhance public understanding of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s financial performance,” DeMarco said.

Perhaps DeMarco can also fill the public in on just how many mortgages held by the GSEs were bought from originators who also sold these to ten other guys.

Here is the basis of the projections, both rooted in Moody's completely worthless expectations of what the housing market does over the next five years:

And here are your taxpayer dollars at work in keeping the housing market about 100% overpriced.

Full report