The meat of the Premier League season arrives after the November international break. With 12 games played, the preliminaries have been stretched over a fairly leisurely first three months, but between now and the turn of the year a third of the way through the season quickly becomes halfway through the season. By the time the next breather comes around, the FA Cup in January, the league table will look less like a novelty and more like the version we will end up with in May.

Examining the present state of affairs, the three novelties that will appear most conspicuous to anyone returning from a three-month holiday are the figure seven in Chelsea’s defeats column, the fact Leicester City appear to have pinched their place in the top four, and the number of people who saw evidence in last Sunday’s north London derby that Tottenham Hotspur could finally be ready to reassert themselves this season and claim a Champions League place.

With due respect to José Mourinho’s personal forcefield collapsing in on itself and Claudio Ranieri enjoying a new lease of life with a team that were nearly relegated last season, the last is by far the most intriguing. So much so that this column tracked down a Spurs season-ticket holder, an avid follower who has seen all the games so far and has just booked a trip to Azerbaijan later this month, in the interests of checking the facts.

Could it really be true that this season Spurs are now strong enough to kick sand in Chelsea’s face, metaphorically speaking? Will they use their new-found steeliness of purpose to actually qualify for something with a bit more oomph than the Europa League? My contact thought not. “We have only won five games out of 12,” he said. “It’s not enough. We’ve only lost once, so that’s something, but West Ham and Crystal Palace have won more games than we have.”

This must be what winning the Double then waiting more than half a century for any sign of a repeat can do to a man. No wonder Spurs have been getting through so many managers, the fans don’t dare to dream any more, let alone the players. Who did he expect to finish fourth then? “I don’t know. Leicester perhaps. Or maybe Chelsea.”

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Even outside the gloom and despondency of White Hart Lane, you could probably find other football followers who think the same in regard to the last question. Although Chelsea have lost seven games already, few would be completely confident in writing them off at this stage, simply because of what Mourinho has achieved in the past.

In all likelihood Chelsea will lose more games, and may even part company with their manager, and that is probably what it would take to convince everyone that the grand European adventure of the past 15 years might be coming to an end. While Roman Abramovich would doubtless be able to finance another one it might take a short while, for should Mourinho leave any time soon he will not bequeath quite the same team built in his own image for subsequent Chelsea managers to enjoy running.

At this point in the season, with Leicester in third having been beaten only once in their first 12 games, it does not appear ludicrous to suggest they have a better chance of finishing in the top four than Chelsea. The more pressing question is whether they have a better chance of staking a Champions League claim than West Ham, Southampton or Spurs, and that is more difficult to answer.

While one might expect the Foxes to fall away to an extent over the next few months, the interesting thing this season is that the usual suspects, Liverpool and Everton, are not being touted to take their place. Both have defensive problems, and Liverpool are short of goalscorers too. Swansea have dropped even further after a promising start, Garry Monk’s troubles seemingly beginning as soon as he began to be talked up as a future England manager, and while Crystal Palace remain an entertaining wild card, losing five times in a dozen games is not the sort of consistency that suggests a top-four finish. Spurs, on the other hand, are consistent, Southampton are pretty good at it too, West Ham perhaps less so. The clever money might be on Southampton or Spurs to overtake Leicester, possibly the former given the misgivings of my Tottenham informant, though there is still time for Mauricio Pochettino to persuade his players to live up to the club’s motto and go for it this season.

That said, Leicester have some excellent players and are clearly enjoying playing without pressure. For most of last season they were dreading relegation, possibly the worst pressure of all, though as teams such as Liverpool and Spurs can attest, there is considerable pressure also in trying to achieve a top-four finish when you have a squad set up for that purpose and supporters conditioned to demand it. Leicester have no such concerns at the moment; they have already confounded expectations and begun to make their own luck. They might not keep enough clean sheets to please Ranieri and their goals-against tally is easily the highest in the top half of the table, but they have turned around a few games this season in a manner that indicates they could prove just as tenacious in hanging on to their lofty league position.

Fourth place? It is Tottenham’s to lose, even though Pochettino’s players are currently in fifth. They blew Manchester City away in September, and for all their improvement Leicester are not at that level yet.

On the other hand Leicester do not have West Ham and Chelsea to come this month, with a Thursday night in Baku in between. Like Southampton, who managed to exit Europe at the hands of Denmark’s FC Midtjylland, Leicester have only their league position to worry about. At the moment it does not seem much of a worry at all.