As North Korea inches ever closer to having the ability to strike the United States with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, President Donald Trump has warned Pyongyang’s leaders “not to try the United States.”[i] His speech before the South Korean parliament, combined with his previous threat to respond to North Korean provocations with “fire and fury,” created a frenzy among much of the foreign policy establishment. The Trump administration’s approach to this crisis has led to widespread speculation that the United States is preparing to conduct preemptive strikes against North Korea, with “devastating consequences.”[ii] But the costs of failing to preempt North Korean aggression could prove equally destructive.

Deterrence Requires Rational Behavior