Republicans serious about running for president in 2016 should think twice before lambasting President Barack Obama’s executive action on immigration reform later this fall.

While the president’s decision to postpone his executive action on immigration reform enraged advocates in the Latino community, the timing puts Democrats in a more politically advantageous position. Now, Democrats running for Senate in Republican-leaning states won’t have to worry about how mobilized anti-immigrant sentiment could play out at the voting booth this fall. And with 2014 in the rearview window, the main attraction after Obama makes his announcement will be how Republicans hoping to recapture the White House react.

“If the president is the leader who legalized immigrants, then 2016 will pretty much be locked up for Democrats," says Lionel Sosa, a Republican strategist on Latino issues and former adviser to President Ronald Reagan. “That said, it’s not impossible for Republicans to overcome. The strategy for Republicans will have to be to go ahead and risk upsetting the radical right in order to win the bigger prize of inclusion.”



Instead of letting vitriolic statements from congressmen like tea party favorite Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, dominate the headlines in the aftermath of Obama’s eventual immigration announcement, Republican strategists say GOP leaders will need to change the terms of the conversation. Those serious about a run for the White House will have to intercede, step up and come up with a serious alternative to the president’s unilateral action.

“If Republicans win the Senate, they have no excuse. They cannot be on the sidelines if they are thinking of running for president,” says Alfonso Aguilar, the executive director of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles.

Both political parties know the voter demographics are shifting rapidly. The liberal think-tank Center for American Progress estimates that 2,000 Latinos turn 18 every day. At that rate, 26 million Latinos will be eligible to vote on Election Day in 2016. And even though immigration reform is rarely cited by Latinos as their top issue, pollsters on both sides of the aisle have found candidates must be generally supportive to the idea in order to reach out to Hispanic constituencies on other issues, like the economy or jobs.

“It is not as important as pocketbook issues, but it is the one that speaks to the question of respect,” says Marshall Fitz, the director of immigration policy at the Center for American Progress. “What Republicans need to be doing at this juncture is figuring out how to construct a ladder out of the hole they have already dug for themselves. Instead, if the president acts, I'm sure it is going to be like handing all the Republicans shovels. They are just going to keep digging.”

A few serious 2016 contenders are acutely aware of what is at stake. But most who have attempted to walk out ahead on the party’s immigration plank in hopes of gaining a general election foothold against Democrats also know setting out ahead, can be a lonely place to be. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., for example was at first won praise from some political corners for helping craft a bipartisan immigration bill, only to be chided by his party’s right wing standard bearers for supporting “amnesty.”

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., meanwhile, has tread more carefully. He’s given countless speeches touting reform, but remained vague on the details – strategically avoiding being accused of supporting "amnesty." He voted against Rubio's bipartisan immigration bill.

“If Republicans control the Senate, Rand Paul cannot just talk, he is going to have to act,” Aguilar says.

Democrats, however, are pushing the faith of pro-reform Latino voters. By failing to move forward after pledging Latino voters in June he would by the end of the summer, Obama broke his word, yet again.



The clock is ticking for Democrats, but they still have the advantage among Latino voters, a luxury the GOP just doesn't have.

