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Now compare that to the huge jump in implied volatility of London’s FTSE 100 around the United Kingdom’s historic vote in June over whether to remain in the European Union. It seems clear which potentially history-altering event investors are worried about.

[Editor's note: The last three dates labeled on this chart, created by Marco Risk Advisors, are incorrect. They should be Jan-17, Mar-17, and Jun-17.]

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Granted, online betting sites currently show a higher probability that Britain will exit the euro zone — the so-called Brexit — than Trump will become president. But Chintawongvanich first analyzed the data in late February, when Trump seemed to have the GOP nomination on lock. His odds of winning peaked in early March at 27.2 percent on ElectionBettingOdds.com, giving him roughly the same chances as the Brexit. Yet investors were actually more complacent about the presidential election back then.

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”There was basically nothing priced into U.S. options for the election,” Chintawongvanich said. “I felt there was a huge disconnect here.”

Let’s play devil’s advocate for a minute. It’s possible investors are not pricing in volatility because they don’t believe a Trump presidency would be consequential for stocks. Chintawongvanich said trading options became popular in the 1970s, and though the presidential elections since then have been politically and socially influential, markets have generally considered them to be a snoozer.

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But Chintawongvanich argues this time is different — or, at least, it should be. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has warned that Trump’s proposal to levy a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports and a 35 percent tax on those from Mexico could spark a trade war that would throw the country back into recession. A model of the impact by Moody’s Analytics for The Washington Post shows 4 million Americans would become unemployed, and another 3 million jobs would not be created in the first place.

And those are just the trade policies. Trump has said he wants to pay off the country’s $19 trillion in debt over two terms in office — and that he can do it without cutting taxes. Another Washington Post analysis shows that would require economic growth of 13 to 24 percent every year. Right now, the economy is growing at just an annual rate of about 0.4 percent, according to the Atlanta Fed.

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If growth doesn’t skyrocket, Trump would have to let the national debt stand or dramatically raise taxes to pay it off. The former leaves the economy with the status quo, which Trump recently predicted would lead to a “massive recession.” But the latter would also cause a massive recession, so perhaps there’s just no avoiding it.

There’s another plausible scenario as well. November is still pretty far away, and it’s possible that investors simply haven’t focused on it yet. Chintawongvanich said he noticed similar patterns in options markets around the debt ceiling crisis in 2011 and government shutdown in 2013. Though there were plenty of red flags along the way, markets didn’t respond until relatively late in the game.

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But the investors are already pricing in the potential for a roughly 6.5 percent one-day market move in the FTSE around the time of the Brexit vote, Chintawongvanich said, and it too remains a distant event.

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The most likely explanation is the simplest one: Investors do not believe that Trump will become president. And that, Chintawongvanich said, makes it the riskiest stance of all.

“The scenario in which the market moves is when they don’t expect him to win and then all of a sudden he wins,” he said. “There could be a massive market move.”

Correction: An earlier version of this article mischaracterized Britain's vote in June. It will decide whether to stay in the 28-country European Union, not the smaller bloc of 19 nations in the euro zone that share a common currency.