It may feel we’re better off picking names from a hat when it comes to captaincy decisions, but FPL simply doesn’t work that way. If we want to be on the right side of the captaincy calls more often than not, we need to continue to analyse and scrutinise.

There is no better person to do that than our very own Clarke Hutchison. Clarke once used bookies’ odds to calculate whether he should go for an Indian or a Chinese. Some say he uses underlying stats to determine what to buy his Nan for Christmas. Let’s see what he has to say about Gameweek 7’s captaincy.

Mohamed Salah £12.5m

Sheffield United vs Liverpool

The reason I have chosen Salah over Mane this week is due to his away form. The latter comfortably outscored Salah at Anfield last season with 18 goals to 13, but as shown below, he trailed his teammate by a significant margin in each of the last two seasons on the road.

Salah and Mane’s Away Form

Player 17/18 Away Goals Per 90 18/19 Away Goals Per 90 Salah 0.86 0.52 Mane 0.31 0.25

Another thing which swings the balance in Salah’s favour is Sheffield United’s susceptibility to concede efforts from the right flank. 19% of their shots against have come from this side of the park compared to 10% from the left.

This is likely a result of Enda Stevens being their most offensive defender. With the exception of his Ireland teammate, Seamus Coleman, the left wing-back has attempted more dribbles than any defender in the league this season.

He is encouraged to get forward and, although he has a solid back three to protect him, Salah is a master at finding that pocket of space behind the fullback. If he can isolate Jack O’Connell, the centre-back will naturally be uncomfortable with Salah cutting inside as a left-footed defender.

On the contrary, Sheffield United are defending like a top-half club. They have conceded the same number of goals (6) as Man City, whilst ranking inside the top eight for total shots and shots inside the box conceded.

Another noteworthy stat is that Sheffield have the highest number of individual errors leading to a goal. This might appear to be a good thing when contemplating captaining a Liverpool player, however, this highlights that their defensive unit is structurally sound.

Without these lapses of concentration, they potentially would have conceded just three times in their first six fixtures. Mistakes are inevitable, but Liverpool will have to work hard to break down an extremely disciplined Chris Wilder side.

Sergio Aguero £12.2m

Everton vs Man City

It’s simple. When Aguero is a nailed on starter, or as close to that as possible, he should be part of your thoughts for captaincy. He leads the Premier League in multiple key statistics per 90 minutes.

Aguero’s 19/20 Stats Per 90

Statistic (Per 90) Aguero Closest Rival Points 11.07 10.78 xG 1.07 0.65 Shots 5.03 4.58 Shots in Box 4.43 4.06 Big Chances 2.21 1.67 Bonus System 47.72 43.10

The Argentine was left out of the Man City squad for their midweek fixture which, just like last week, almost guarantees he will start on Saturday. As someone who couldn’t rearrange their squad to include Aguero last week, and having seen the 8-0 scoreline, I was delighted he didn’t hit a double-digit return. I had just about accepted a 20 pointer!

Despite Everton’s lacklustre form with three defeats in their last four Premier League games, this will be accepted as a tougher fixture by City. Everton rank inside the top six for expected goals conceded (6.36), third for shots in the box conceded (31) and also have the second-least total shots conceded (45) this season – a stat only bettered by their Gameweek 7 opposition.

Although they have conceded five times over their last two fixtures versus Bournemouth and more recently Sheffield United, they have actually improved their ranking (+3) for expected goals conceded and held steady in shots in the box conceded (3rd) and total shots conceded (2nd) over this period. This suggests that the last two matches have gone against the run of play.

The obvious takeaway from the table above, which featured in my Guide To Clean Sheets, is the gap between Everton and the rest of the field for total clean sheets. They have excelled in holding out big opposition compared to their rivals outside the top six.

As always, never underestimate Man City – they can destroy any level of opponent at any given time. With that said, I wouldn’t dismiss Everton based on recent form. If any game is a bogey fixture for Aguero, it’s this one. He has failed to contribute with an attacking return in his last 500 minutes of league football versus Everton. Something he’ll probably put to bed in the opening three this week.

Harry Kane £11m

Tottenham vs Southampton

As Man City and Liverpool travel to Goodison Park and Bramall Lane respectively, the appeal of Tottenham’s home fixture has grown. I’m not saying last years top two will struggle to find the net, but I also can’t see an 8-0 drubbing in either of those fixtures.

Harry Kane has contributed to seven of his side’s last ten Premier League goals versus Southampton, with six goals and an assist. In his last two home fixtures against the Saints he has five attacking returns, which included a hat-trick in Gameweek 20 of the 2017/18 campaign.

Harry Kane vs Southampton

Season vs. SOU Kane Return 2017/18 Home 17pts 2017/18 Away 8pts 2018/19 Home 12pts 2018/19 Away 8pts Average Home 14.5pts Average Away 8pts

His consistency in returns (he’s averaged 14.5 points in this fixture over the last two campaigns) is reassuring. Southampton have chopped and changed in the managerial department during this period, but Kane has continued to make the net bulge. The last time he failed to return versus them was in May 2016.

Ralph Hassenhuttl got the better of Spurs in their last meeting, though Kane was once again heavily involved. He scored the opening goal, attempted twice as many shots as any player (8) and made two key passes for his teammates.

If you have joined the 285,000+ managers in selling Sterling ahead of Gameweek 7, there’s a decent possibility that you now own a premium striker – one of Kane, Aubameyang or Aguero. Of the three, Kane has the most appealing fixture, however, his side’s form is conflicting.

Southampton conceded three big chances and as many goals at home to Bournemouth last gameweek, whereas Tottenham dwindled to defeat away to Leicester after Kane opened the scoring with a brilliantly unorthodox finish. Both enter this match with different objectives: the home side to dominate on all fronts, while the away side look to seal the holes in their defence.