The number of UK-born students applying to start university this autumn – when fees rise to up to £9,000 a year – has slumped by almost 8%, official figures show.

Statistics published by the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas) reveal that 283,680 people have applied from within the UK, compared with 306,908 at the same point last year.

The head of a government-commissioned taskforce on student finance information, Martin Lewis, has warned of a crisis because, he says, many students are misinformed about the new fees regime.

Students will be able to pay the fees with a student loan, which they start repaying when they graduate and earn more than £21,000. Lewis believes many students think they have to pay the fees upfront on their first day of university.

From this autumn, UK universities can charge up to £9,000 – almost three times the current maximum. The government said that the average fee would be about £7,500 when scholarships, bursaries and discounts were included.

However, the average cost of courses starting next year is £8,354, falling to £8,071 when fee waivers for less well-off students are included.

The deadline for applications to university this autumn is 15 January, and the latest Ucas figures include applications for all courses up to the end of December. A final set of figures will be published on 30 January. Ucas has said it is too early to make predictions about the eventual demand for places for this autumn.

The fall in the number of UK-born students applying may mean that significant numbers have been deterred by the fee hike, but they are also due to a glut of applications in 2010 in anticipation of the fees rise. Demographic factors could also be behind the slump in applications. The number of 18-year-olds in the UK is projected to decline over the rest of the decade by 11%.

Mary Curnock Cook, chief executive of Ucas, said applicants were taking longer to research their choices.

The figures show a 7.6% decrease in the number of UK-born students applying.

The statistics are broken down into applicants from the UK, those from within the European Union (but outside the UK) and those from outside the EU.

The number of applicants overall has fallen by 6.4%. This is a more marked fall than last time tuition fees trebled, in 2006. Then, when fees rose from £1,000 to £3,000, applications fell by 4.5% for applicants from within and outside the UK. The following year, applications rebounded by 7.1% and in 2009 were up by 10%.

Applications from within the EU, but outside the UK are down 10.7%. The number of applicants from outside the EU has risen by 13.3%.

The latest figures do not show whether those from low-income families have been particularly deterred, but they do show a significant fall in the number of mature students who have applied. Many of these candidates tend to be from the least well-off homes.

Applications from students aged 40 and over have fallen by 15.4% compared with last year. Those aged 20 have dropped by 15%.

The number of applicants from England has dropped more sharply than those from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. This is not surprising since institutions in those countries will be able to charge up to £9,000, but devolved governments will provide generous financial support to their own students.

Applications from England are down 8.3%, while those from Northern Ireland fell 5.7%. Applications from Scotland and Wales dropped 0.8% and 1.9% respectively.

The proportion of men who have applied has fallen by 7.6%, while the number of women has dropped by 5.6%.

The last time Ucas published figures, on 28 November, the number of UK-born students had fallen by 15%. But Professor Les Ebdon, chair of million+, which represents some of the new universities, said that rather than breathe a sigh of relief that figures appear to be recovering, ministers needed to ensure mature students did not lose out.

"Ministers need to work much harder to persuade older students of the opportunities provided by studying for a degree that will help them get a job in the future," he said.

"Ministers need to launch a campaign to ensure that older students understand the loan system and the opportunities available. A failure to do so will overshadow the success the government has had in persuading younger applicants that university remains one of the best career moves that they can make."

Universities contacted by the Guardian said degrees in business, law and health-related fields were proving particularly popular.

Anglia Ruskin University said it had had more interest this year from students living locally in the east of England, while Northumbria University said applications had risen from students living outside the north-east.

Newcastle University said applications were slightly down on last year. Northumbria has so far had 3.2 applications per place, compared with 3.3 this time last year.

Applications to Bath have risen by 3%. The university said social and policy sciences were proving less popular, while engineering, accounting and economics were among those that were registering a spike in applications.

At Essex University, applications from EU students are down by 20.8%, but those from UK students are up 6.1%. The university said science and engineering degrees were proving less popular than last year.