May 27, 2019

The United States has decided to grant Iraq a third 90-day sanctions waiver so it can continue to purchase gas from its sole provider, Iran, giving Baghdad some much-needed breathing room. On May 22 in Baghdad, Joey Hood, US chargé d'affaires in Iraq, stressed to reporters that the waivers will not continue indefinitely, so the United States is working with Iraq to reduce its dependence on Iran.

The announcement came a week after Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer al-Ghadhban said at a news conference that Baghdad is prepared for a gas shortage if one develops, but hopes that taking such action will not be necessary. He did not offer any details. Iraq's power grid is fueled by gas purchased from Iran.

Iraq is already in the position of having to stretch resources. Ghadhban's message was intended to assuage public concern about the possibility of extensive power cuts over the summer, when temperatures routinely exceed 105° F. Officials already expect a wave of protests against the worsening electricity situation in the second half of the year and are concerned that they might pose a threat to Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s government. Last summer, mass protests over electricity cuts turned violent in the south.

Hassan Montazer Torbati, director of the National Iranian Gas Company, spoke on May 14 of an anticipated jump in exports to Iraq, which are expected to hit 40 million cubic meters a day, an increase of nearly 12 million cubic meters. The figures are for total Iranian exports to Iraq, which include gas for uses other than electricity, such as cooking.

Musab al-Mudarres, spokesperson for the Iraqi Electricity Ministry, told Al-Monitor, “Iraq currently relies on Iranian gas to generate 2,800 megawatts. This is by importing 28 million cubic meters of Iranian gas per day through the Diyala and Basra pipelines.”