A new poll has been released for the State of Virginia, and it confirms a lot of the conventional wisdom about how the race is shaping up. Virginia is a Super Tuesday state and is probably a pretty good representation of how many of the Southern Super Tuesday states are thinking right now.

On the Democrat side, Hillary leads Bernie Sanders, but by less than you would expect, at 52%-40%. You would think that, of the Southern states, Virginia might be especially friendly territory to Hillary, given that one of her stooges is Governor and given the increasingly high number of DC expats who make up the Democratic base there, but Bernie is showing surpising strength.

On the Republican side, the result confirms the conventional wisdom that, outside of the early voting states, this is becoming a three-man race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, with Rubio ascending. The top line result shows Trump at 28%, Rubio at 22%, and Cruz at 19%. The rest of the pack is rapidly fading, with Jeb Bush and John Kasich both at 7%, and Carson at 4%.

This is the first time Virginia has been polled since November, when Carson led Trump 29-24. This poll illustrates the importance for Jeb, Kasich, and Carson to get some kind of surprisingly good result in either South Carolina or Nevada, or face being washed away on Super Tuesday. Given yesterday’s polling in South Carolina, there’s little chance that occurs.

The field is being winnowed before our eyes. The actual voting in South Carolina and Nevada will probably put an official nail in the coffins of everyone not named Trump, Cruz, or Rubio.