Murray's Mailbag: Did Cam Oliver mess up by entering draft?

Show Caption Hide Caption Watch: Highlights from Wolf Pack's 2016-17 season The Wolf Pack had plenty of highlights during its most recent athletic campaign.

So, potty training. Yeah, that sucks. So much so that we have decided to find a preschool that potty trains our kid. This might be cheating, but I don't mind cheating in this case. I hope your weekend was better than mine. Part of the reason Reno/Tahoe is awesome is because of all of the outdoor activities available. So, it's not exactly ideal to stay in your house all weekend so your son can sit on the toilet every 20 minutes. Silver lining: I did watch all three of the original Star Wars movies for the first time. They were fine. Now, on to your questions with the weekly Murray Monday Mailbag. Here are this week's inquiries.

Did Cam get bad advice about staying in the draft? Or just bad luck with the way the draft played out? — Rodd Garcia (@TheRealRoddG) June 23, 2017

I don't think he got bad advice. Literally every mock draft I saw included the Wolf Pack star. Now, some had him in the bottom 10 picks, and that's always a tenuous position, but he was clearly projected to be selected. And, honestly, it's probably better to pick your own landing spot after the draft than go in the second round. Still, Oliver flew all the way out to the draft and said he was majorly disappointed he wasn't picked. It wasn't the ideal way for the night to go, but he did have 10 pre-draft workouts in advance of the draft, so he clearly interested a lot of teams. He was heavily on the draft radar, so I can't say the advice to turn pro was bad.

Even if Oliver came back for another season, there was no guarantee he would have been selected after his junior season, which for all intents and purposes would have been his final year at Nevada because you can only put your name in the draft three times. Age is a demerit in the draft. It's all about youth, potential and projection. A record number of college freshmen were picked in the first round based on that potential and projection. If Oliver came back and didn't improve his numbers, which were already really good and hard to improve upon, he loses some sheen as a prospect because it would appear he's "stagnating" and has less potential given his comparatively advanced age.

So, did Oliver make a mistake? Honestly, that question will be answered over the next 5-10 years. It appeared Ramon Sessions "made a mistake" when he left Nevada after his junior season and was picked 56th overall while being shipped to the D-League. Ten years later, he's still playing in the league and making enough money to donate $1 million back to the Wolf Pack. What Oliver does in the future will dictate whether he made the right or wrong decision. But, Houston is an excellent landing spot, and with him getting a multi-year contract that, at least per his AAU program, has some guaranteed money, he should get at least one year in the league to show what he can do. And that's what he wanted in the first place, anyway.

Did playing in a mid-major/major conference hurt Oliver. Is OOC scheduling key for individuals draft stock? — Sethers (@Sethers09) June 23, 2017

Yeah, it matters, and it should matter. The level of competition for mid-major players is a big factor when it comes to the draft. It pushes mid-major players down the board. It's hard to project how a player will project from the best basketball conference in the nation (the ACC) to the NBA and doubly so when you're looking at the 10th-12th best conference in the nation (the Mountain West). Nevada didn't play a lot of NCAA Tournament-caliber programs this season, so it was hard for Oliver to prove himself against elite competition, but it should be noted he was always excellent in the postseason. He always rose to the occasion when challenged by top talent. But he didn't get a lot of opportunities to play against power programs.

Look at Oliver and Utah's Kyle Kuzma. They play the same position. Similar size. Similar age. Similar stats, although Oliver blocks way more shots and is the better 3-point shooter. Oliver tested as the significantly better athlete. But Kuzma went 27th overall to the Lakers. Oliver wasn't picked. Kuzma played in the Pac-12. Oliver played in the MW. If you're an elite prospect, you can overcome the mid-major label to some degree. Luke Babbitt, JaVale McGee and Kirk Snyder all went in the top 18 picks out of the WAC. But it's definitely a demerit in the draft process. The only first-round pick from a mid-major conference this year was Gonzaga's Zach Collins, and Gonzaga's obviously not a mid-major program. Only two of the top 45 picks were from mid-major teams, the other being SMU's Semi Ojeleye (also a Top 25 program).

Would you rather get drafted at the end of the second round or go undrafted and pick your location? — Coleman (@ColemanJM73) June 23, 2017

I'm 5-foot-10, have the ugliest two-handed shot ever seen and can barely touch the bottom of the net when I jump, so I'd prefer to get drafted. I figure that'd increase my chances of making the team.

Who is the best coach in a non-revenue sport? — Brian Catlett (@BrianCatlett) June 23, 2017

Nevada's best coach, non-revenue or otherwise, is diving coach Jian Li You, and it's not even close. She is probably the best diving coach in the United States. She's won six straight conference coach of the year awards and was the 2016 NCAA diving coach of the year. Her athletes have won seven straight conference diver of the year awards. I have to do the research, but I'm pretty sure she has the most MW coach of the year awards (five) in any sport in the conference's history, and she's only been in the MW five years of its 18-year existence. She's phenomenal and works at a bargain price because she loves Reno. I did a feature on her a few years ago if you're interested in her backstory.

Chances Nevada actually gets McNamara? Chances the get Sewell? — Zach Atkinson (@nvblue1022) June 23, 2017

What's up with the recruiting on Gabe Sewell's lil bro? Looks like there was a pic of him circulating on twitter in a @NevadaFootball jersey — John Alonte (@whats_a_buxnie) June 23, 2017

Damonte Ranch High quarterback Cade McNamara is one of the top quarterbacks in the 2019 recruiting class. He has offers from Nevada, San Diego State, Hawaii and Wisconsin and is drawing all sorts of coaches to Reno. Notre Dame, Alabama, Mississippi State, North Carolina, USC, Washington, UCLA and others are showing interest. If they come through with offers, it's highly unlikely McNamara stays in town to play. I'd give higher odds Nevada lands Penei Sewell, the four-star offensive line prospect in the 2018 class whose brothers, Gabe and Nephi, play for the Wolf Pack.

(We have stories here and here breaking down the Sewell situation).

Sewell even tweeted a picture recently of him and his brothers all in Wolf Pack uniforms. He's not stringing Nevada along. There's legitimate interest. I could see it happening. But I still have a hard time believing somebody is going to pick Nevada over Alabama, which has offered Sewell and tossed in an offer to his younger brother, Noah, too. Throw in Vai Taua's brother, Toa, a three-star running back with a number of Pac-12 offers, and Nevada is swimming with the big boys with these three. If it can land one of them, it's a good sign.

Nevada🏈recruiting seems to have 💥 even 🔝what polian did. Verbals seem to be earlier and often. Was Ault that far behind, not adapting or? — theHDP😐 (@amountainman69) June 23, 2017

I was actually thinking about this last week. Nevada's 2018 class is nearly two-thirds full and it's not even July. Brian Polian's classes were at least half full before the season began. Chris Ault's classes were lucky to have one or two recruits publicly committed by September. It's definitely a different strategy. Nevada's last two coaches have attacked getting commitments way earlier.

I wouldn't say Ault was "far behind." His classes ended up sending a lot of players to the NFL, although much of that was player development. But how many times did we here Nevada landed a player "after watching him play basketball?" Happened with Colin Kaepernick, Joel Bitonio, James-Michael Johnson, etc., etc. It was like they waited until football season was over to recruit. Now, that wasn't the case, and Nevada could have worked to keep its commitments secret so other schools didn't start sniffing around, but Ault and staff definitely worked on a later timeline.

With the early December signing period beginning this season, the recruiting timetable has been moved up a bit, so getting earlier commitments is normal. Ultimately, it's not about when you get the commitment at a school like Nevada. It's about how you can develop the talent you get because the Wolf Pack is still limited in the recruiting game by the lack of an indoor practice facility.

What's a better college sports movie, Blue Chips or The Program? — Fake Matt Mumme (@FakeCoachMumme) June 26, 2017

I saw Blue Chip but not The Program, which I only remember because the players lie down in the middle of the street during one scene, which, of course, some people imitated, which made them pull the scene after a person was killed. Anyway, I believe the correct answer to this question is Varsity Blues.

Thoughts on Nevada non- conf schedule? — Webstir🌬🌲 (@ItsWebstir) June 23, 2017

I'm going to assume you're talking about Wolf Pack basketball and not Wolf Pack football. So far, we know these games. Home: Illinois State, UC Davis. Road: Pacific, Texas Tech, Hawaii, UC Irvine, Santa Clara. Neutral: TCU, two games at the Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic. That leaves four more spots, which will have to be high-profile games for Nevada to think about an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. This year's schedule is looking a lot like last year's schedule, so Nevada would have to go something like 29-6 to get at-large consideration. Scheduling is tough, man. It'd be nice to see Mark Fox at Georgia do Nevada a solid and schedule a home-and-home series.

what's your take on space travel? — Dedric Holmes (@DedricHolmes) June 23, 2017

Honestly, I've never really understood it. We have about 42 million Americans who live in food-insecure households, including more than 13 million children. We've spent about $550 billion on NASA since it was founded in 1958. Those two things aren't congruent to me. Shouldn't we feed our kids before we fly to Mars? Nevada gave Elon Musk essentially a $1.3 billion tax break to bring Tesla to town and he's trying to build a self-sustaining civilization on Mars with that money. Couldn't we help the citizens we currently have on Earth with that $1.3 billion? But I'm a simple thinker. I'm just trying to get my kid to pee in the toilet right now.

I always root for local kids to do good. Is their a backstory to Hunter Fralick's departure? From heir apparent to backup to transfer. Why? — Sean Corbett (@admancorb) June 23, 2017

It's odd that Fralick, the Spanish Springs High grad, had his best shot of playing when he was a redshirt freshman and battled Tyler Stewart for the starting job. People around the program were saying late in the 2014 season, "Is there any way Fralick isn't the starter next year?" Weird how things turned out.

But, in short, this year's spring camp was an evaluation process, which you always see when a new coach takes over. After camp ended, the staff had some hard conversations with kids about their future and their likely playing time, or lack thereof. Kids were given the option to: (a) stay or (b) leave the program, focus on school and stay on scholarship. Some kids took that second route. Fralick was fourth on the depth chart in spring camp and was likely going to fall in the fall with two more quarterbacks joining the team. Part of this stems from the fact Nevada went from the read-option Pistol, which Fralick fit, to the Air Raid, which didn't suit his strengths.

At last check, Fralick was deciding between transferring to play for another school or staying at Nevada to finish his degree while on scholarship. But, it is a great, "What if." What would have happened if Fralick won the starting job in that 2015 fall camp? What would have happened if Fralick went to San Diego State rather than Nevada out of high school? When I featured Fralick in 2014, this line stuck out: "I never really made it a goal to play in the pros, but it was definitely a goal to play in college." I think he always had life plans other than football long term.

Out of all the organized sport teams we have in town and all type of sports.Which 1 would you say stands out to the N.Nevada community? 🤔 — Jay-Ay (@mar1ne0811) June 23, 2017

I cover the Wolf Pack first and foremost, so I have a little more insight on that athletic department, but it is much improved under athletic director Doug Knuth. There's a long-term vision and sense of purpose that was missing previously. The Aces/Reno 1868 FC also have improved in recent years. The hiring of Eric Edlestein as president in 2013 has been excellent. This is really the golden era of sports in Northern Nevada with the Wolf Pack, Aces, Reno 1868, Bighorns and a minor-league hockey team expected to come soon. Question for the future: Which team is in Reno longer? The Aces or Reno 1868 FC?

Have you run any relay races outside of RTO.? — Blake Krek (@BlakeKrek) June 23, 2017

Nope. The only relay race I've done is the Reno-Tahoe Odyssey, which I've run seven times (five traditional; two ultra), although the team I usually run with retired after this year's race, so I might be done, too. Somehow I will miss running a 178-mile race that takes 28 hours to complete.

how much is the Raiders stadium REALLY gonna cost the average Joe in Nevada? Is there a way we can only tax Raiders fans???? — Ethan Brizendine (@RichmondTubes) June 23, 2017

The Raiders are getting $750 million in taxpayer money from a hotel tax increase, a number that will likely end up around $1 billion when all is said and done, so it won't cost locals that much direct money unless they're staying at hotels for some reason. But the opportunity cost is huge. That's $750 million that could be going to education or infrastructure improvement or mental health care or helping the homeless or taking care of veterans or a multitude of other issues. It's money the NFL, which produces $14 billion a year in revenue, simply doesn't need. If the NFL wants a new stadium, it can build it. The counterargument is that Las Vegas will now have a stadium large enough to hold a Beyoncé concert. We sure as hell better get a Beyoncé concert for this $750 million.

Did Norvell make too many changes and not give football a good chance to win this year? — NVwolf (@NVwolf) June 23, 2017

No. Year one is probably going to be rough, but it was going to be rough no matter what given the schedule and roster inherited. You have to build the program for the long term. One of the reasons Norvell got the job was because he had a long-term vision. Recruit Los Angeles. Create an exciting, pass-first offense that is entertaining. Bring in a veteran defensive coordinator who was elite at his scheme. Find gritty, hard-working, tough kids. Hire coaches who can develop talent regardless of background. It looks good on paper. The real test is where Nevada is in three years not in year one. I don't foresee a bowl game in 2017, in part because of the massive scheme changes that require different personnel, but the goal is to be competing for championships by 2019. This isn't basketball. It's going to take a while.

What are the chances Nevada will keep the Fremont cannon. — NVwolf (@NVwolf) June 23, 2017

The 2017 season might be a rebuild, but, yeah, you have to beat UNLV at home. Nevada should be a slight favorite. Interesting stat: The road team has won this game five straight times, the longest streak in the rivalry's history. Maybe Nevada should petition to play on the road this season.

Will the #Dodgers win the #WorldSeries at home or on the road and will they sweep or will it take 5, 6 or 7 games? — Damon Hirschensohn (@nevadapackfan) June 24, 2017

The Dodgers will need just three games to beat the Astros in the World Series, becoming the first team to win the title in fewer than four games. This is my dream. In real life? The Dodgers will lose to the Cubs in seven games in the NLCS when Kris Bryant hits the go-ahead grand slam off Pedro Baez to extend Los Angeles' MLB record of playoff appearances without a World Series berth to 11. Cue to me crying, ala Jordan Face.