At a press event in New York City on Friday, Hillary Clinton informed reporters that each and every day, the campaign of Donald Trump was becoming less of an actual presidential bid and more of a reality show. This turned out to be rather unfortunate timing because on the very same day, Quinnipiac announced that the fake, reality show campaign is now leading Clinton in the critical battleground state of Ohio. (Cleveland.com)

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has a 4-point lead in Ohio over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, according to a poll released Thursday. The Quinnipiac University survey marks the first time Trump has led an Ohio presidential poll since May. The survey found that Trump leads Clinton 41 percent to 37 percent among likely Ohio voters. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson polled 14 percent, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein had 4 percent support. In a head-to-head matchup, the poll found that Trump is ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 45 percent.

Believe it or not, the fate of Ohio (and potentially the election if it’s a close one) may come down to Gary Johnson. This is reminiscent in some ways – and I despise myself for having to say it – of Ralph Nader in Florida during the 2000 election. Nationally, Johnson is still polling in single digits and probably won’t get to attend any of the debates without a ticket, but in Ohio he’s drawing nearly fifteen percent. That much support for a third party candidate speaks to an unsettled electorate looking to protest a pair of major party choices which don’t thrill them, but as the reality of the next four years sinks in over the next month some of them are going to settle in with either the GOP or the Democrats. But if enough of them stick with Johnson in key collar counties, they could tip the state in one direction or the other. It’s going to be something to keep an eye on once we’re into October.

The cross tabs for this survey might give us a bit of pause at first glance. They’re breaking 31% Republican, 30% Democrat and 34% independent. But let’s remember that this isn’t a national poll. The electorate in Ohio is a very tight split most of the time, though it shifts from year to year. Quinnipiac has a very solid track record for the most part and that’s not an unrealistic split.

The bottom line here is that Ohio is not only in play, but it’s looking increasingly volatile. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The media is largely treating this election as if it was over as soon as the Democratic National Convention left Philly, but everyone may be in for a rude surprise. This race is tightening every week and it’s going in the wrong direction for Hillary Clinton. Even the GOP insiders who had once written off Trump and wanted to focus on saving the Senate are now coming around to the realization that The Donald may just pull this thing off.