How does Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford’s oft-repeated promise that, if elected premier, he would repeal Ontario’s carbon tax make no sense? Let us count the ways.

First, and fatally for Ford’s plan, Ontario does not actually have a carbon tax. The cap-and-trade system of pricing carbon that the Wynne government put in place in 2016 imposes a limit (cap) on industrial emissions and allows companies to buy (trade) credits that let them exceed that limit. The price is not paid directly by taxpayers and is therefore not a tax.

If what Ford means is that he will scrap the cap-and-trade system, a second level of incoherence emerges. Starting in 2019, the federal government, in recognition of the growing consensus that there can be no meaningful climate action without a price on carbon, will impose a carbon tax, beginning at $10 per tonne, on all provinces that have failed to implement their own comparable pricing scheme.

Ironically, by repealing Ontario’s system of pricing carbon, Ford would be opening the door to exactly the sort of tax he says he wants to do away with.

There are legitimate reasons a conservative might prefer the federal carbon tax over Ontario’s cap-and-trade system. While a carbon tax would no doubt hit most Ontarians harder than the existing system — and getting out from cap-and-trade would carry significant costs — revenues from the federal tax would be returned to the provinces to do with whatever they want. That is, Ford could give the money back to taxpayers. The current cap-and-trade system, on the other hand, requires that revenues be reinvested in green initiatives.

This is why Ford’s predecessor, Patrick Brown, wanted to replace the current system with the federal carbon tax – so he could give the money back. But if that’s what Ford is up to, for the sake of accuracy and honesty he should stop saying he’s going to repeal the carbon tax and start saying he’s going to invite Ottawa to impose it.

If, however, what he means is that he intends to fight Ottawa’s carbon tax in court, then he should say so and defend that position. That’s what Jason Kenney seems to be doing in his bid to become premier of Alberta.

While this would have the merit at least of being a coherent plan, it is by no means a good one. The Trudeau government is unlikely to back off of its signature environmental initiative, particularly in the face of right-wing opposition in a minority of provinces.

Indeed, the federal Liberals just might relish the fight. Moreover, the feds almost certainly have the authority to impose the tax and if the provinces refuse to play nice, Ottawa has ways of making them pay.

Of course all of this leaves aside the most compelling arguments in favour of leaving in place some price on carbon. Every jurisdiction has a responsibility to do its part to tackle the existential threat of climate change. And, particularly as Ontario’s debt mounts and its population ages, there is a pressing need for new revenues if we are to avoid a costly return to blind austerity.

By political necessity, the federal carbon tax is set at a level that most economists agree is too low to significantly change behaviour. The potential environmental benefits of such a tax, then, are twofold: it lays the groundwork for future, more significant price hikes; and it can raise revenues that can then be used to pay for important environmental programs.

Ford, with rhetoric and rebates, can sadly undermine these aims if he wins power. But he cannot repeal a carbon tax that doesn’t exist or avoid putting a price on carbon. His pandering carbon-tax promise brazenly denies reality. If Ford refuses to be on the right side of history, he can at least tell Ontarians the truth about where he stands.

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