3-Point Stance: Bengals backfield not quite as crowded as it appears

As the mercury rises, Brad Evans and Liz Loza will tackle pressing fantasy questions tied to every NFL team. Read, ponder and get a jump on your offseason research. Friday’s topic: The Cincinnati Bengals.

BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: Joe Mixon muscles his way past Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard to not only start Week 1, but also to close out the year inside the top-fifteen players at the position.

Liz – MAKE BELIEVE. There’s no questioning Mixon’s immense on-the-field talent. In fact, he was my No. 1 ranked rookie RB this spring, ahead of Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. His landing spot, however, is less than ideal. Not only is there a crowded backfield to contend with, but moreover the Bengals offensive line is flimsy at best.

Ranked by Football Outsiders among the bottom ten in terms of open field yards, Cincy’s run blocking unit did little to help the backfield in 2016. In fact, the Bengals’ rushing attack averaged 3.9 YPC, which placed them 20th in the league for that statistical category. With the recent departures of Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler, the potential of this entire offense could be undone by the o-line.

Make no mistake, Mixon will get his shot, especially with Gio Bernard expected to be eased back in and Jeremy Hill disappointing in back-to-back campaigns. But it’s important to remember that the former Sooner is a rookie, and one with some behavioral red flags. I think it’s more likely that Mixon finishes in the RB18-23 range. FF: 219 carries for 876 yards and 5 TDs, 33 receptions for 280 yards and 2 TDs

Brad – BELIEVE. His reprehensible past aside, everything is starting to come together for Mixon. Whispers have started to turn into shouts Gio Bernard will miss regular season games in his slow recovery from a torn ACL. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hill, who stumbled terribly in consecutive seasons, is vulnerable to sliding down the training camp depth chart. That leaves the rookie, an extremely talented, multi-down producer who possesses the burst, wiggle (48 total evaded tackles with Oklahoma in ’16), power (3.7 YAC/att last fall) and hands to immediately usurp the alleged incumbents and safeguard the starting job rest of season. Most convincingly, his workout metrics comp to a previous rookie sensation, Zeke Elliott. Arousing.

Staying on the straight and narrow is obviously key and the Bengals makeshift offensive line is a concern, but Mixon’s path to 260-270 touches is apparent. Keep Hill at bay and storm out of the gate Weeks 1-3 against Baltimore, Houston and Green Bay, and the youngster leaves everyone in the dust. A popular Round 3 grab in PPR or standard (34.8 ADP, RB14), he should deliver a solid return on investment.

For the first time since entering the league in 2011, A.J. Green failed to top 1,000 receiving yards last year. Do you believe 2016 was a fluke, or that it was something more? OVER/UNDER Green’s final WR rank of 6.5?



Brad – OVER. Before Green zealots employ a witch hunt on yours truly, listen to the reasoning. This answer is NOT an indictment on the player. The multi-time Pro Bowl selection is typically a targets hog who is unequivocally one of the virtual game’s elites. His WR7 ranking is a matter of preference. Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham and Jordy Nelson, in that order, I feel are slightly better options. And it’s not like the wideout is flea free. Green did miss 10 combined games from 2014-2016. A healthy Ross and Eifert could also reduce his targets share to around 25 percent. Additionally, if Mixon proves worthy, the receiver may not completely dominate red zone work compared to years past. Yes, he’s ridiculous, but an 80-1180-8 line feels right.

Liz – UNDER. While Green’s season totals were down in 2016, he averaged more catches and yards per game than the previous two years. Under Hue Jackson, the six-time Pro Bowl talent managed 5 catches and 80 yards per contest. With Jackson gone and a thinned out receiving corps, Green grabbed 6.6 balls for 96 yards per outing. In fact, before getting hurt, over the first ten weeks of the season, the Bengals’ stud was the fourth most productive fantasy player at the position.

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