Sep 2, 2016

TEHRAN, Iran — With only eight months left of his current term, President Hassan Rouhani and his potential rivals are gearing up for Iran's May 2017 presidential election. Rouhani, who came to power in 2013 promising to resolve the nuclear issue, has fulfilled this key pledge with a comprehensive agreement with world powers. But is the nuclear deal enough to guarantee his victory in the upcoming elections? The most likely answer is "no," considering the challenges he faces in domestic politics, cultural issues and, most importantly, the economy.

The cultural policies pursued by the Rouhani administration have, from the start, been close to the Reformist line of thought, prompting hope for change among Iran's cultural community. However, dissatisfaction continues to linger partly due to issues such as the numerous cancellations of music concerts. In the past two years, an estimated 50 concerts have been canceled by the police or judiciary, despite having the necessary permits.

Most recently, controversial remarks by Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda, the ultraconservative Friday prayer leader of the northeastern city of Mashhad, are the latest hindrance to the government's pursuit of its cultural agenda. Alamolhoda stated in mid-August that concerts cannot be held in Mashhad, given that it is where Ali al-Ridha (Reza) — the eighth Shiite imam — is buried, and that anyone who wants to attend a concert should go and live elsewhere. His statement was met with an outcry from a range of prominent Iranian figures. Baran Kosari, a celebrity who won the Best Actress award at the 2015 Fajr Film Festival in Tehran and played an active role in Rouhani's presidential campaign, is among those who have criticized the government and asked that it play a more effective and constructive role in the cultural arena. Kosari said, "As a person who both voted for this government and helped gather votes for it, I want to ask that it respect our demands. Simply saying that they [the government] are under pressure is not acceptable."

Another key part of Rouhani’s campaign agenda back in 2013 was the release of detained opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Until now, this promise has failed to materialize. The only response provided by Rouhani and his deputies on this issue has been, "We are trying. This issue requires a national consensus. The government is committed to its promises to the people." As for freedom of speech and media, though the situation has improved compared to what it was under previous President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the banning of newspapers continues, while even pro-Rouhani websites are now filtered.

Iran's ailing economy is perhaps the biggest challenge that Rouhani and his administration face. What has made this challenge even more difficult is Ahmadinejad's legacy, which was marked by the Mehr low-income housing project, monthly cash subsidy payments and smart cards for purchasing monthly rations of subsidized gasoline. In an attempt to reduce the negative impact of these measures, Rouhani has tried to encourage Iranians to turn down government cash handouts. Moreover, while critical of the Mehr housing scheme, the president has also promised to complete the project. As for subsidized fuel, the Iranian parliament has voted to stop gasoline sales via these smart cards.