With members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries prepping for their final meeting of the year, every oil-related headline, comment or data point can rock prices for the commodity—and they certainly have so far this week.

On Wednesday, prices for West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLF26, settled below $40 a barrel first time since August and Brent crude UK:LCOF6 settled under $43, at its lowest level since March 2009.

With previous support levels now broken, analysts warn that prices could soon drop to their lowest levels in seven years—and OPEC hasn’t even held its official meeting yet.

Wednesday’s settlements put “a little more pressure on the Saudis and other GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries to accede to OPEC members that want to lower production at Friday’s meeting,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. But “it is unlikely to be successful.”

“The lower price will put additional pressure on U.S. producers and contribute to lower drilling activity and a more rapid decline in U.S. production,” he said.

That would mean that Saudi Arabia’s strategy to protect market share by pricing out other oil producers is working. “Saudi Arabia seems intent on crushing the market and isn’t overly concerned about the supply/demand situation,” said Darin Newsom, DTN senior analyst.

Oil prices found some support Thursday on talk of a Saudi call to cut production, but Iran said it will continue to move foward with plans to raise production after Western sanctions are lifted in January.

The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday had cited Gulf officials as saying Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies were willing to reduce output, but wouldn’t cut unless other producers like Iran, Iraq and Russia joined them.

It will be very difficult for GCC members to agree to a cut “before there is a comprehensive quota system assigning a number to each member,” said Williams.

Wednesday whipsaw

Traders and analysts have been looking for hints on what the oil cartel will ultimately decide to do with production levels when it meets on Friday and they got quite a few hints Wednesday. The problem was that they pointed in different directions.

Early Wednesday, the Petroenergy Information Network, or SHANA, which stands for its Persian acronym, reported that Iranian official said the majority of OPEC members agreed on a reduction in crude production.

Wednesday’s wild moves in WTI oil. FactSet

Within the space of a couple of minutes on Wednesday, and less than 15 minutes before the release of U.S. official oil stocks data, both WTI and Brent prices jumped by roughly $1 “before giving back their entire gains and more as the session wore on,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com.

“Bullish oil speculators must have felt like victims of a pump-and-dump scam, but crude is notoriously headline-driven and this should serve as a warning for what’s to come over the next few days,” he said in a Wednesday note.

A further read of the SHANA story revealed that the reported agreement didn’t include Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf Arab countries, which would be essential for any sizable cut.

Before that story, news reports said Iran has plans to raise output by 500,000 barrels a day as soon as sanctions are lifted and that it said it didn’t need OPEC’s permission to make that increase.

Also early Wednesday, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a 10th straight weekly rise in crude inventories, along with a weekly increase in total U.S. oil production, adding to concerns over the global glut of oil.

With all of that in the backdrop, most oil market participants appear to be holding on to expectations OPEC won’t lower the 30 million-barrel per day output ceiling the group has had in place since 2012.

Read: Don’t expect Saudi Arabia to back down when OPEC meets

Broken line of support

Still, Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, pointed out that WTI oil’s sub-$40 settlement Wednesday is “significant in its own right.”

“In the past, $40 has provided a line of psychological support, but a near-unanimous expectation that the Saudis will reject production cuts at this week’s meeting is likely to send WTI prices searching for a new level of technical support,” he said.

“Combine that with Brent touching 2009 lows, [the] reported build in U.S. crude stocks and the looming return of Iranian oil to the global market and the crude complex has little reason to feel optimistic,” said Fraser.

The next logical step for WTI would be near the August low of $37.75, but if there’s enough “bearish momentum to chart new lows for the year,” prices can expect little technical support until 2008’s low of $32.40, he said.

Newsom said the next targeted low for Brent would be $36.20, also the low from December 2008.

“Saudi Arabia has never indicated that they expected the current strategy to be quick or painless, and there is little reason to doubt their resolve heading into Friday’s meeting,” said Fraser.