When Apple leapt past Microsoft in market cap, Steve Ballmer brushed it off saying, "I am still pleased that 94 times out of a 100 somebody picks a Windows PC."

That's true, but if you step back and look at the bigger picture, Microsoft only has 70% of the share of the two most important computing devices -- smartphones and PCs. If you look at estimates for smartphone and PC sales for 2011, Microsoft will only have 50% share of those devices.

Why combine smartphones with PCs? Because smartphone operating systems like the iPhone OS and Android are powering the next generation of computers -- tablets like the iPad.

And the iPad is the next version of the PC, according to Steve Ballmer. At D8 today, Ballmer said the iPad is the same as a PC, it just has a different form factor than what we've seen.

If this is true, then Ballmer is looking at a scenario where Microsoft is no longer the company people chose 94 times out of a 100 when they're looking for a new computing device.

(Of course, Windows licenses for PCs are still vastly more financially valuable to Microsoft than anything involving smartphones. But the smartphone market is growing much faster than PC market.)

How did we get these numbers? Glad you asked. Apple had 2.9% of the worldwide market for PCs. Throw in a few points for Linux and Microsoft had around 95% of the PC market on lock.

In 2010, Microsoft has 94% of the PC market, but only 6.5% of the mobile market share according to Gartner. If you add the PC and smartphone numbers, Microsoft only owns 70% of the market share combined devices.



For 2011, RBC estimates smartphone shipments will equal PC shipments, with 400 million each. Assuming Microsoft still has 94% of the PC market, and it only sells 30 million smartphones, an IDC estimate, then Microsoft only has 50% of the market for PCs and smartphones.

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