Our preview of the holiday movie season continues this week as the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at what to expect from Thanksgiving weekend’s new releases. The spotlight will shine on Pixar’s Coco, while Death Wish and Molly’s Game also seek to find their target audiences over the extended frame. Our initial forecast:

PROS:

Coco (Disney / Pixar) will mark Pixar’s 19th feature film, and their first non-sequel since 2015’s The Good Dinosaur opened over the same holiday frame. Trailers have been warmly received by fans and families, helping to generate social media activity on par with the likes of Inside Out and Big Hero 6 at comparable points before release. The lack of blockbuster animated titles this year should further increase demand among parents, while the film’s central story and setting set it up to appeal strongly across the growing Latino and Hispanic communities.

(Disney / Pixar) will mark Pixar’s 19th feature film, and their first non-sequel since 2015’s The Good Dinosaur opened over the same holiday frame. Trailers have been warmly received by fans and families, helping to generate social media activity on par with the likes of Inside Out and Big Hero 6 at comparable points before release. The lack of blockbuster animated titles this year should further increase demand among parents, while the film’s central story and setting set it up to appeal strongly across the growing Latino and Hispanic communities. Death Wish (Annapurna / MGM) will aim to counter-program among older male audiences with Bruce Willis stepping in to remake the role Charles Bronson made famous in the 1970s. Director Eli Roth’s fan base could also turn out, giving this an interesting cross-section of potential moviegoers.

(Annapurna / MGM) will aim to counter-program among older male audiences with Bruce Willis stepping in to remake the role Charles Bronson made famous in the 1970s. Director Eli Roth’s fan base could also turn out, giving this an interesting cross-section of potential moviegoers. Molly’s Game (STXfilms) hails from writer and first-time director Aaron Sorkin, whose considerable legion of fans will be relied upon here. Equally as important will be Jessica Chastain’s increasing stardom and the film’s potential award season candidacy. Early reviews from various screenings are very encouraging at this stage with a 93 percent Rotten Tomatoes score across 29 reviewers.

CONS:

There are very few factors working against Coco at this point in time. The only cautionary tale is to mention the film lacks a major star (ala Dwayne Johnson in last Thanksgiving’s Moana) to bolster opening weekend drawing power, but that’s only a minor concern with the Disney/Pixar brand power. The only thing that can genuinely hurt a holiday season Disney/Pixar title in the long run will ultimately be word of mouth, but their history generally speaks for itself at this point.

at this point in time. The only cautionary tale is to mention the film lacks a major star (ala Dwayne Johnson in last Thanksgiving’s Moana) to bolster opening weekend drawing power, but that’s only a minor concern with the Disney/Pixar brand power. The only thing that can genuinely hurt a holiday season Disney/Pixar title in the long run will ultimately be word of mouth, but their history generally speaks for itself at this point. Death Wish is unlikely to break out beyond target audiences with male-driven action flicks like Justice League and Thor: Ragnarok still likely to be heavy hitters over the holiday frame. Social buzz is also minimal this far out from release.

is unlikely to break out beyond target audiences with male-driven action flicks like Justice League and Thor: Ragnarok still likely to be heavy hitters over the holiday frame. Social buzz is also minimal this far out from release. Similarly, Molly’s Game will need more than Chastain and Sorkin’s fans to drive it (as exemplified by the lukewarm runs of Miss Sloane and Steve Jobs, respectively). Opening against Darkest Hour in limited release that weekend could also be a factor with Gary Oldman’s performance as Winston Churchill likely to attract similar adult moviegoers interested in prestige-level films.

This Week’s Notable Updates

Fandango announced this morning — on the heels of an early review embargo lift from Warner Bros. — that Blade Runner 2049 is outselling Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and Gravity at the same point in the pre-release cycle. For now, we’re maintaining our expectation of a strong debut somewhere between $40-50 million since those comps occurred before the company’s exhibitor and customer outreach expanded over the last 2+ years. That being said, the film’s current 97 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and intense fan interest could drive momentum even higher by the time our final forecast is published ahead of opening day next week.

Lukewarm social media trends for Only the Brave have convinced us to lower expectations slightly, but it remains filed under “potential sleeper” for the time being.

have convinced us to lower expectations slightly, but it remains filed under “potential sleeper” for the time being. Jigsaw ‘s prospects are improving somewhat with a planned IMAX and premium screen release in late October, not to mention a heavy dose of awareness building thanks to its trailer attachment in front of IT over the past few weeks.

‘s prospects are improving somewhat with a planned IMAX and premium screen release in late October, not to mention a heavy dose of awareness building thanks to its trailer attachment in front of IT over the past few weeks. Suburbicon‘s first wave of reactions are underwhelming with a 41 percent score among 49 Rotten Tomatoes critics. At this point, the turnout by fans of Matt Damon, director George Clooney, and the scripting Coen Brothers will be crucial if the film is to generate staying power throughout the holiday corridor.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor 10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $48,000,000 9% $135,000,000 17% 3,900 Warner Bros. 10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $11,500,000 $36,000,000 2,900 Fox 10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,000,000 -7% $20,000,000 -7% 2,500 Lionsgate 10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 2,700 STXfilms 10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 3,000 Universal / Blumhouse 10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 2,600 Open Road 10/13/2017 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures 10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros. 10/20/2017 Only the Brave $15,000,000 -6% $51,500,000 -6% Sony / Columbia 10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix 10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $33,000,000 7% Universal 10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate 10/27/2017 Jigsaw $13,500,000 35% $29,000,000 35% Lionsgate 10/27/2017 Suburbicon $10,000,000 -29% $32,000,000 -29% Paramount 10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal 11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 $85,000,000 STXfilms 11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 $250,000,000 Disney 11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 $95,000,000 Paramount 11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 $84,600,000 Fox 11/17/2017 Justice League $150,000,000 $330,000,000 Warner Bros. 11/17/2017 The Star $13,000,000 $60,000,000 Sony / Columbia 11/17/2017 Wonder $16,000,000 $60,000,000 Lionsgate 11/22/2017 Coco $60,000,000* NEW $270,000,000 NEW Disney 11/22/2017 Death Wish $8,000,000* NEW $23,000,000 NEW Annapurna / MGM 11/22/2017 Molly’s Game $6,000,000* NEW $21,000,000 NEW STXfilms

* denotes 3-day (Friday-Sunday) forecast for films opening on Wednesday

For client or media requests relating to box office analyses and forecasts, please contact Shawn Robbins