Kevin Pelton: When the Phoenix Suns landed the No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft at last week's lottery, it seemed their choice was one between Arizona center Deandre Ayton and Slovenian superstar Luka Doncic, with whomever the Suns passed on going No. 2 to the Sacramento Kings.

After all, Doncic has been in the top two of your rankings all season, Jonathan, and his projection by my stats-based model is not only best in this year's draft but the best for any prospect I have rated dating back to 2003. So I was stunned to read your update from last weekend's Euroleague Final Four in Belgrade that you believe Doncic could slip all the way out of the top three.

How strong is this suspicion? What percentage chance would you give him of ultimately going in the top three?