Can it win? Yes. Is it probable? No.



All this talk about ideology is to highlight why Germany was bold enough to engage in a war they knew had a high chance of failure. Remember, the Germans believed they had to, many of them truly believed that death was better than "oppression under the Jewish World regime" for they believed in the nonsense that the world was run by Jews and they were out to get them. German control over Europe and Leubrenstram was a pipe dream but a dream worth fighting for, for Germany felt it was the powerhouse of Europe, and it was unfair it had been defeated in WW1 and now was sandwiched between the Capitalist West and Communist East. Hitler believed that Communism was a evil Jewish ideology, and that capitulation with the West means being the West's bitch. He saw the instability of the Weimar Republic, seeing everything from the whorehouses to the devaluation of the German currency and thought to himself economic dependency on Western markets and "Jewish" Communism was no way to go, so he comes up with the idea of Nazism. Furthermore he knew if he took control of the country, that this model of Nationalism+Socialism was not sustainable(remember his plan had cushy government benefits, everyone could afford a car and go on long vacations) and he knew his country can be invaded or sanctioned by foreign governments any day. What was his solution to this paranoia? War. To get payback from France, and to expand into the Soviet Union to annihilate its citizenry(subhuman Slavs, upholders of Jewish Bolshevism, they believed) and take their resources. Nazism operated on war.



Hitler's goal was never to destroy Britain or America but show them it was a powerhouse on the world stage, a superpower to rival them by holding Fortress Europe and expanding into the Soviet Union. Its plan of victory was ultimately to negotiate peace with the UK after destroying both France and Britain on a field of battle in the Battle of France. This plan didn't workout for UK never surrendered and blockaded Germany from its oil exports. Germany lacked the Navy or Air Force to engage in Operation Sealion so it had no other option but to expand East. The Soviet Union had been building up, and Hitler knew that the best time to attack was in 1941 for that was when they had the best oil output and the Soviet Army was still being modernized.



Now where did the Eastern Front go so wrong? Well Germany did not believe the Soviet Union was a credible threat and believed they would be rolling through Moscow in a matter of months. They thought the Soviet Union was rather weak from its defeats in Poland and Finland, and later the purges of Stalin. The Generals believed that the capture of Moscow would effectively destroy the Soviet Army, however was repulsed. Operation Blau was Hitler's last gamble to capture the oilfields, but that was a failure. Could have it gone better? Maybe. Germany still focuses on the Rhezev sector right at Moscow's gates rather than reinforcing Army Group South. If the Volga was effectively secured, Germany could cut off oil shipments and still hold the food of the Ukraine, and theoretically cause a Soviet economic collapse. As for the Western Front, Hitler had declared War of the US to make Japan side with it so it could hold off the USA for the time being. Remember, the US supported UK even before the Pearl Harbour attack and many analyze the decision to declare war as ultimately rational. A victory in the East was the only option for Hitler now. As bombing attacks increased and the Soviet war machine geared up, Hitler's only hope was to simply hold them off and hope for the better.(it didn't work)



So where did Germany go wrong?

-The belief the UK would negotiate peace

-Underestimating the capabilities of the Soviet Union and the vast logistically feat

-Focusing on Army Group Center rather than Army Group South



So ultimately if Germany was able to force an collapse of the Soviet Union, and was able in time swing back to prevent the advance of allied forces, maybe it could have won.