Banks and corporates would come under pressure, and there would be a "string of private sector defaults and possible crisis". The fall in GDP could match 2009's 7.8pc drop.



2. Rouble stabilises around 65/$

Inflation swells to a peak of 15-20pc, and would likely result in some defaults, but a widespread banking crisis would be unlikely. GDP would shrink by 2-5pc.



3. Rouble rallies (60/$ and above)

Inflation would rise, but peak at about 12-15pc in the second quarter, with GDP falling by 1-2pc over the year as a whole.