With regard to voters, Trump’s health-care plan was not “coverage for everybody” or lower premiums for better care. It was a massive tax cut for the rich, a rollback in Medicaid, and in the case of many of his voters, more expensive insurance. There was nothing populist (or even humane) about it.

Now along comes the budget. Ticking off the list of steep cuts to domestic programs and to Medicaid (which Trump said he would never make) Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) argued on the floor: “When you add it all up, Mr. President, the Trump budget is comic-book-villain bad; and just like comic books, it relies on a fantasy to make all the numbers work. It’s the kind of budget you might expect from someone who is openly rooting for a government shutdown. Haven’t we heard the president say that?” He added, “It is the latest example of the president breaking his promises to working Americans. This budget breaks promise after promise after promise that the president made to what he called the forgotten America, the working men and women of America. He said he’d help them, and this budget goes directly against them.” There you see the case against Trump Republicans for 2018: He’s broken faith with voters.

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Moreover, the budget contains the same smoke-and-mirrors accounting Washington pols have been trying out for years. The Peterson Foundation warns in a news release: “This budget relies on optimistic economic assumptions, projecting materially higher growth rates than many other economists and forecasters. It must be acknowledged that if these growth assumptions do not materialize, deficits would be substantially higher than the administration projects.The budget also does not address the key drivers of our long-run spending: Social Security and Medicare. Our nation’s most significant long-term fiscal challenges stem from America’s aging demographics and rising healthcare costs.” These defects look all the more problematic now that economists are confirming his rosy scenario of 3 percent growth is utterly unrealistic. (“To make a credible case for 3% growth, Mr. Trump has to identify some wellspring of workers or productivity, that is output per worker, that his predecessors have missed.”)

It remains an open question as to whether Trump voters will abandon him when he does not deliver or whether they will rationalize the slow progress as the fault of Congress or the press. That said, he has handed Democrats the opportunity to steal the populist mantle back and assume the role of protector of the average American.

Meanwhile, Trump is not delivering on his main promises to right-wing House and Senate Republicans. The House health-care bill was a policy disaster and a political loser. It is far from clear anything is going to emerge from the Senate. Meanwhile, having no concrete tax bill on the table and no convincing way to hide the flood of red ink it will spill, the chances of completing tax reform this year are declining. Moreover, their forbearance in challenging his noxious rhetoric, abhorrent behavior and cluelessness about our constitutional system is proving a much bigger burden than they imagined. The list of things they are asked to ignore — nepotism, conflicts of interest, emoluments violations, slipping code-word information to the Russians, hiring a slew of disreputable and incompetent staffers, firing the FBI director and then leaving a trail of bread crumbs for the special prosecutor to find obstruction of justice — is much too weighty to justify the meager payoff (some executive orders, Justice Neil M. Gorsuch). The “bargain” is wholly imbalanced.

As a result, the House very well may fail to get its wish list — and lose the majority to boot. With polls showing the Montana House seat edging toward a toss-up, Georgia’s 6th Congressional District tilting toward the Democrat (the latest poll shows Jon Ossoff opening a 7-point lead) and a long list of endangered House incumbents (some of whom may throw in the towel and retire), Republicans’ Faustian bargain with Trump is looking more like a sucker’s bet.