Only twice since the Menzies era have the same two leaders of the major parties gone head-to-head at consecutive federal elections.

Malcolm Fraser and Gough Whitlam contested the 1975 and 1977 elections, essentially because the ALP couldn't bring itself to set Whitlam adrift so quickly after a dismissal that so infuriated them.

And John Howard and Kim Beazley led their parties into the 1998 and 2001 elections, with the ALP judging that Beazley had done well enough in '98 to warrant a second chance.

But re-runs are very much the exception rather than the rule.

So how is it that right now the major parties are on track to put up the same two candidates that failed to flatter in the 2010 election, failed to win a majority in their own right, and have been returning abysmal personal ratings ever since?

Social researcher, Hugh Mackay, told 7.30 Tuesday night:

"I think we're looking at a very seriously bewildered electorate. I think people are underwhelmed by both sides. They're almost despairing about what seems like the lack of inspiration in any direction."

That, of course, comes down to a lack of leadership.

And yet as absurd as sticking with the current leadership appears to be on the surface - and as contradictory as it is to public opinion – there are plausible explanations as to why both sides will do exactly that, even if the next election is more than a year away.

The Labor caucus is likely to stick with Gillard, notwithstanding the concerted campaign by Rudd supporters to undermine her, because to do otherwise would be an embarrassing admission that they got it wrong when they distorted political history and threw out Kevin Rudd.

It is not a premise that they (most of them) accepted then or now. They were persuaded that Labor was gone under Rudd. Gillard at least bought them extra time, as uncomfortable and unsatisfying as that proved to be. The reasons that the Caucus moved against Rudd are as valid now as they were then. As Simon Crean made clear in his interview on 3AW, Rudd is not regarded as a team player. Everything that he has done since he got the chop has reinforced that basic judgment.

And Caucus makes allowances for the extraordinary difficulties associated with running a minority government, even if the media and the public does not.

It is after all, Caucus that decides these things, not the wider community, not the commentators; and certainly not the Opposition. The opinion polls will have an influence but one important and genuine polling figure mitigates against a change of leadership. Rudd blames the leadership coup for Labor's poor showing at the last election, particularly in Queensland, and yet there was a swing against Rudd of 10 per cent in his own seat. That's a strange way to punish Gillard and her supporters.

There are kamikaze pilots in Labor's ranks ready to ensure a return to Rudd will guarantee immediate and destructive by-elections. In the unlikely event that Rudd ever mounts a credible challenge, that will be a last-minute element that nervous marginal members will have to weigh up.

There is a steely determination on the part of a majority of the caucus to stick with Gillard, no matter how difficult she sometimes makes it for them.

However, the back-down on poker machine reform was not one of those moments.

That retreat was read in parts of the media as a poor start to her political year. It was the opposite; a poor start in a policy sense; a poor start in terms of her own credibility; but the right political move. The majority in Caucus did not want the reform. Those who suggested she should have put the proposition to the Parliament so that the Government could argue that at least they tried, missed the point as well. Far too many NSW and Queensland MPs were vehemently opposed to going even that far.

Had they been forced to do so, even with a certain loss in prospect, some would have gone along with it, and then defected to Rudd in protest.

Not for the first time, the Rudd factor influenced the policy position.

But having said all that, there would not want to be many more of the blunders that happened on Australia Day.

On the other side of politics, Abbott hasn't made a brilliant start to the year either.

His poor taste joke about the stricken Italian cruise ship had some of his supporters cringing…again. He was lucky not to come under more scrutiny as behind the scenes his troops argued the merits of assistance to the car industry. And his major policy initiative, saying he will force the navy to turn back asylum seekers boats, was quickly dismissed by those in a position to judge as dangerous and unworkable.

But while the opinion polls hold up (at least that part that deals with party popularity as opposed to his own) then sticking with Abbott is a no brainer. The Coalition's primary vote is impressively and historically high.

But even so, Hugh Mackay, raised an interesting question on 7.30. He asked:

"Given the negativity amounting to hostility towards Julia Gillard, the fact that this a government clearly on the nose…how come this…hasn't been reflected in soaring popularity for Tony Abbott?"

The not entirely convincing explanation that Abbott and his supporters proffer is that low personal ratings is an inevitable consequence of very effectively putting the boot into the government day after day.

One does not necessarily follow the other. In fact you could make a case that the standing of this government would be no better than it now is, even if Tony Abbott never existed. But while Coalition MPs convince themselves of the critical role that Abbott plays, and accept that as the reason for his lack of popularity, then his survival is beyond question.

You could debate endlessly which of three factors contributes most to Labor's poor polling figures. (a) Abbott's relentless negativity; (b) the never ending speculation about a Rudd challenge; or (c) just plain poor government. It doesn't really matter which of those elements matter the most. The chances are all of them will be in play for a while yet.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders. View his full profile here.