The biggest black swan event in the oil market is a disruption to the most critical chokepoint in the Middle East, according to an analyst from S&P Global Platts.

"The market is extremely exposed to any disruption to vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz," Dave Ernsberger, the firm's global head of commodities pricing, told CNBC's "Capital Connection" Thursday.

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial channel that oil producers use to transport crude from the Middle East to markets around the world. It is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and, in 2018, around 21 million barrels were transported via the waterway daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"If we were to see the temperature change and somebody start to disrupt this traffic, that would be the kind of event that would send the markets into the kind of panic we haven't seen for 10 or 15 years," Ernsberger said.