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This article was published 6/4/2012 (3097 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

JACQUES BOISSINOT / THE CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES PQ Leader Pauline Marois questions the government over laid-off Aveos workers in March.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's policies on crime, the environment and democratic reform are creating "winning conditions" for Quebecers to elect a Parti Québécois government that will plunge the country into a new referendum campaign and national unity crisis, say several prominent federal Conservatives in Quebec.

The warnings are widely shared among the province's federalists as they gear up for a provincial election anticipated in the coming months.

"All the policies that Harper adopts or has done since the election seem to offend Quebecers and the media jump all over it," said Peter White, an outspoken veteran Conservative who recently headed a party riding association in Quebec's Eastern Townships.

"Every time (PQ leader) Pauline Marois attacks Harper, she goes up in the polls and that's why she's doing so well because Harper is giving her all these targets to attack and she can just say: 'What are we Quebecers doing in this weird country of Harper's?' "

Some of those targets include recent policies and decisions including the nomination of unilingual anglophones to key positions such as the auditor general's office, dismantling the long-gun registry, the decision to pull out of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, proposed criminal-justice legislation, as well as Senate reform and plans to weaken Quebec's representation in the House of Commons.

White said he supports the government's policies but deplores the absence of Harper and other Conservatives who are failing to adequately explain their decisions and defend their record in the province.

"Normally I wouldn't go public with this kind of thing, but more and more people are telling me that what is happening right now is we're gradually preparing 'les conditions gagnantes' (winning conditions) for Quebec, because of the general distaste of Quebecers, uninformed though it may be, for the federal government," White said.

While many Quebec Tories in Ottawa have declined to speak publicly about their concerns, White said he's hearing the warnings from a lot of federalists in business and political circles who believe Harper needs to improve his image to save Canada.

"That is not an exaggeration," White said. "A lot of people tell me that."

Maxime Bernier, a junior federal minister for small businesses and tourism, disputed the concerns, explaining the Conservative government has many accomplishments Quebecers support, such as providing $2.2 billion in compensation to the province for harmonization of the sales tax. He also said the province's population supports federal policies that protect jobs, lower taxes and respect the division of powers under the Constitution.

But he explained it's now harder to spread the message in Quebec with only five elected MPs, instead of the 11 Conservatives from Quebec who were elected in the last Parliament before the May 2 election.

Rene Bellerose, a retired lawyer and lifelong Conservative party supporter, agreed Harper must accelerate efforts to defend his policies and the country.

"He's creating this (winning conditions atmosphere) by his absence," said Bellerose, recently elected to head a Conservative riding association in Joliette, northeast of Montreal. "He should be present personally or by strong representation in Quebec to help explain the party's policies and counter what actually is happening because of this absence."

Bernier said the federal government would prefer to avoid seeing a PQ regime emerge in Quebec, but has no plans to interfere with the provincial campaign and is prepared to work with the duly-elected government.

The small contingent of Quebec Conservatives in Ottawa also faces an army of New Democrats elected in the May 2 vote and a popular new leader in Quebec, Thomas Mulcair, who once sat as environment minister in Premier Jean Charest's cabinet.

White said many wind up with the impression Harper is punishing Quebecers after they rejected him, believing he doesn't need their support to stay in power.

"From (Harper's) point of view, it's probably a waste of his time because he's tried four times (in elections) and been rebuffed by Quebecers for four times and basically he's said: 'To hell with you,' " said White. "That's all very well on the purely pragmatic political basis, but it's very, very dangerous for the future of the country."

Thousands of Quebecers have also signed up to join environmental groups who are organizing a massive Earth Day demonstration on April 22. The event is billed as a "Quiet Spring" movement that calls for major changes in both federal and provincial economic and conservation policies, inspired in part by the movement that dramatically changed Quebec and its population's views about national unity during the 1960s Quiet Revolution.

Meantime, the Charest government, facing its own share of criticism about its policies these days from students and other critics, has been bringing its disputes with Ottawa into the courts, creating a new dynamic in federal-provincial relations, said Benoit Pelletier, who was Charest's intergovernmental affairs minister from 2003 to 2008.

"I would say we are going toward a litigious form of federalism," said Pelletier, who now teaches law at the University of Ottawa.

"What's very clear is that Pauline Marois is tempted to make Stephen Harper a target... She will want the next Quebec election to be a trial of the entire federal regime and of conservative values and it's clear that the more conflicts there are between Ottawa and Quebec, the more it helps Madame Marois in her attempts to demonize Mr. Harper."

Pelletier said Charest still has a chance to win a fourth consecutive mandate in the next Quebec election that must be called by December 2013.

But while Pelletier believes Canada is strong enough to survive, even if Marois wins, federal Tories in Quebec don't want to take the risk.

"What if she wins the referendum?" asked White. "If these people in Quebec are right that the winning conditions are there, that means she's going to win the referendum."

-- Postmedia News