The unusually busy first month of 2019 is going out with somewhat of a whimper this weekend, as Universal’s Glass should easily repeat in first, even if it falls sharply in its second frame. In terms of newcomers, Fox hopes to counterprogram with its family title The Kid Who Would Be King, while Aviron hopes to connect with adult audiences through their long delayed thriller Serenity.

Last weekend, Glass opened almost exactly on par with its predecessor, Split, but things aren’t looking so good for the films long term potential. Split was not only a surprise on opening weekend, but also held extremely well – pulling in more than triple its opening weekend, an unusual result for a low budget thriller. Glass, however, has received somewhat mixed reception, and is obviously destined to be more front loaded, as sequels naturally are.

In terms of new releases, the weekend is looking fairly quiet. Fox has made the somewhat bafflling decision to release The Kid Who Would Be King into over 3,500 locations, despite tracking pegging it at $10 million or less. Despite surprisingly strong critical reception, children’s fantasy without a recognizable franchise behind it is typically a hard sell, and the British setting certainly doesn’t make it particularly appealing to American audiences. While Fox is hoping for $10 million, it seems more likely that the title winds up a few million below that.

Next up is Aviron’s first nationwide release since Strangers: Prey at Night almost a year ago. Since then, the only title the indie studio released was A Private War, which did terrible business in its wide expansion, only to be subsequently ignored during awards season (barring a Best Actress nod for Rosamund Pike at the Golden Globes). The Strangers sequel was a solid start for them, grossing around $24 million domestic on a $5 million budget. Serenity, on the other hand, isn’t looking too hot. Carrying a hefty $25 million budget, the title has switched release dates several times before landing in late January. Critics have been primarily negative, though it has made headlines for a supposedly truly baffling third act twist that sends the film into ‘unbelievable’ territory. While that kind of press isn’t enough to turn around a bad opening, any added awareness can’t hurt. An opening of around $5 million looks probable from here.

In terms of holdovers, The Upside will push past my conservative $60 million prediction by day 17, while Dragon Ball Super Broly will continue to climb its way up the charts as one of the highest grossing anime titles to date.

Predictions

Glass – $16 million The Upside – $13 million The Kid Who Would be King – $7.2 million Aquaman – $6 million

Serenity – $4.2 million