Many dermatologists and researchers strongly disagree. A review of the scientific research published in 2014 estimated that tanning beds accounted for as many as 400,000 cases of skin cancer in the United States each year, including 6,000 cases of melanoma, the deadliest form. And a 2012 study found a 15 percent increase in the risk of certain skin cancers with every four sessions in a tanning bed before age 35.

But unlike with taxes on tobacco, the deterrent effect of taxes on tanning salons — which are typically passed onto customers — have not been carefully studied.

“Certainly we know from tobacco research, there’s very clear evidence that increasing taxation results in declines in adolescent smoking,” Ms. Lazovich said. “Adolescents are very susceptible to the price increases, so one could imagine that it could also work here. But we don’t know the price point at which it will be a deterrent.”

One small study out of Illinois found that while 26 percent of tanning salons surveyed there reported fewer clients after the A.C.A. tax went into effect, “distinguishing the impact of the tax from the current economic climate as the source of decline was difficult.” Not only that, but 78 percent of salons reported that clients did not seem to care about the tax.

Still, Ms. Lazovich said that if the tanning industry’s numbers are accurate and there are fewer salons since the A.C.A. passed, that in and of itself could curb usage. “The less access, the fewer people who will be exposing themselves to tanning beds,” she said.

Dan Humiston, who opened his first tanning salon in Buffalo in 1985 and grew it into a chain of several dozen, gave up on the business in 2015. He said the tanning tax made an already difficult climate worse.

“It let into people’s minds that this is really not good for you,” said Mr. Humiston, a former president of the Indoor Tanning Association, another industry group. “It also emboldened all the regulatory agencies; they just felt like they had to come down on us harder on everything.”