Politicians have been trying to find a better way to link downtown St. Paul to the airport via mass transit for the better part of the past two decades.

The first study of the 12-mile Riverview Corridor was led by the Ramsey County Regional Rail Authority in 1998. It took a second, deeper look in 2000. Then Metro Transit took a peek at how bus rapid transit would fare in 2012. St. Paul followed with a look at streetcars in 2014.

The fifth and what many hope to be the final study began the summer of 2014. Led again by the Regional Rail Authority but under the auspice of corridor stakeholders, it was slated to wrap up last winter. That deadline came and went. A new completion date in August has also come and gone.

Rail staff now say it will be several more months, if not another year, before a transit route is finalized and whether it uses a train or bus.

Even that would be a small step.

At a glance: Riverview Corridor. What previous studies have found.

A list of government bodies would still need to sign off on the project, and then environmental analysis and engineering would follow. And then there is finding a way to pay for it.

The transit project is unusually complicated, county staff and members of an advisory committee say. Some of its multiple goals appear to be in conflict.

How do you offer an efficient trip from downtown St. Paul to Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport while building in enough stops to serve residents along West Seventh Street, for example. Then mix in collaboration between three cities (St. Paul, Minneapolis and Bloomington) and two counties (Ramsey and Hennepin). Throw in challenges such as finding a way to cross the Mississippi River, and you have a prime recipe for gridlock.

Then there is the mounting opposition among some West Seventh business owners and residents worried the project would steal parking spots.

Members of an advisory committee on the project say they are confident the fifth time will be a charm for the Riverview Corridor, which is sometimes called the third leg of a transit triangle, with the others being the Blue Line in Minneapolis and the Green Line in St. Paul.

“Transit along this corridor is key to the future of St. Paul … if we want to continue to be a thriving, first-class city,” said St. Paul City Council member Chris Tolbert, one of the committee members.

STUDY COSTS NEAR $2 MILLION

The corridor’s 14-member policy committee and nearly 30-member technical committee have spent the past two years meeting, sifting through data, requesting different data and then sifting through that.

Earlier estimated to cost $1.45 million, the study is now nearing $2 million, said Mike Rogers, a transit project manager for the Regional Rail Authority. That number will likely climb.

In all, about $4 million has been spent on studies examining the corridor over the past two decades, according to the Regional Rail Authority and the city of St. Paul.

The committees have whittled the list of possible routes for the corridor to two — West Seventh and the Canadian Pacific Spur line, which runs parallel to it — and the number of modes to a handful, namely streetcar, light rail or bus rapid transit that would run in a dedicated lane or in mixed traffic. They’ve narrowed the list of river crossings to the Ford Bridge, the Minnesota 5 Bridge or a new one. Doing nothing also remains an option.

The only public transit in the corridor is the often crowded Metro Transit Route 54 bus, which officials say is inadequate to serve the growing neighborhood.

Here’s what you need to know about the final options:

WEST SEVENTH OPTION

This is a strong contender because the people and businesses are already built in. The challenge is that it might eat into current parking, sidewalks and traffic lanes. At its widest, the route has 80 feet of right-of-way and spans 60 feet curb-to-curb. University Avenue, home of the Green Line, has 120 feet of right-of-way.

“The tendency is to lean toward West Seventh because that’s where all the stuff is, that’s where the people are. But that doesn’t mean it will fit,” Rogers said.

A dedicated transit lane, such as a path for light rail, would need 14 feet in each direction. Parking would need to be nixed along West Seventh from Kellogg Boulevard to Interstate 35E, as would two and a half feet of sidewalk on each side, Rogers said. A traffic lane also would be lost along certain segments.

Nearby business owners oppose traditional light rail for those reasons. The West Seventh Business Association recently collected 3,000 signatures for a petition against it.

Space limits make bus rapid transit, a streetcar or a light-rail system that runs mixed in with motorists appealing. Yet those options face hurdles, too. They would move more slowly and be subject to traffic congestion. Bus rapid transit may not be as much of a boon for economic development, and riders sometimes feel more comfortable navigating rail than bus lines, transit experts say.

RAIL-SPUR OPTION

The biggest advantage to the Canadian Pacific Rail Spur route is that it runs through a less-developed area, so installing a new transit system would be less disruptive, rail staff say. Plus, it’s just blocks off West Seventh.

On the flip side, it’s not West Seventh, which is the heart of the neighborhood that could benefit most. Along with its businesses, West Seventh is also an important corridor for residents in need of transportation. Other drawbacks are that the spur runs relatively close to homes, Rogers said.

The line is also owned by the railroad. Though currently rendered “out of service,” Canadian Pacific could opt to resume freight traffic on the line anytime.

HYBRID OPTION

The hybrid option would use both the Canadian Pacific spur and West Seventh to accommodate either a bus rapid transit, streetcar or light-rail system.

It would run in a dedicated lane from Union Depot up either West Fifth Street or West Sixth Street until West Kellogg Boulevard.

At that point it would move onto West Seventh and travel in mixed traffic until about Toronto Street.

The vehicle would then move into its own lane and travel along the CP Spur before briefly hopping back onto West Seventh and into mixed traffic for a few blocks just before Sibley Plaza.

If the mode ends up being rail, it would travel in its own lane across the river to the Fort Snelling Blue Line Station before heading to the airport. Buses would travel in mixed traffic on Minnesota 5.

The choice would allow the line to move off West Seventh in tight spots where it’s important to preserve parking while still having a presence on the busy thoroughfare. The downside would again be longer travel times due to portions that would run in mixed traffic.

COSTS/RIDERSHIP UNKNOWN

Officials still don’t know ridership projections or travel times for each option, nor their corresponding capital and operating costs.

Rail projects often come with more sticker shock. The Southwest light-rail line proposed between Minneapolis and Eden Prairie has a nearly $2 billion price tag. The bus rapid transit A-Line that debuted on Snelling Avenue this summer cost about $27 million.

“It’s pretty standard at this level that you are not going to have a clear best and worst (option) when you don’t have your capital costs, you don’t have your ridership,” Rogers said.

“A lot will also depend on what the community says matters to them, too. Maybe they decide sidewalks for pedestrians are the most important or preserving parking in certain areas. … Those are the kinds of conversations we’ll be having.”

That data is expected to come out in the coming months.

PROJECT CONFIDENCE

Members of the Riverview Corridor Policy Advisory Committee — which will decide the transit option — won’t say which way they’re leaning.

All of those who responded to requests for comment (10 of the 13 members) said they are keeping open minds, as details and the public responses come in. But most also said they expect something will get done this time.

“I am very confident we are going to find a solution that works,” said St. Paul City Council member Rebecca Noecker, a member of the advisory committee. “Downtown St. Paul depends on it; the neighborhood wants it. The political will is there.”

Noecker, who represents the West Seventh area, said that although there is disagreement over the right mode, residents in the area tend to agree that they want better transit.

Pat Mancini, owner of Mancini’s Char House, represents the interests of business owners on the committee. Despite his concerns about light rail, he said he thinks the time is right.

“Everybody wants to know if it’s light rail, but that’s not the only result that could come out of this. … The study could prove that our transportation needs are mostly being met and all we need to do is improve our bus system. Even that is a result,” Mancini said.

Rafael Ortega, a Ramsey County commissioner and chair of the committee, was reluctant to make a prediction. The corridor is critical, though, he added.

“Not only because it completes the triangle and utilizes and enhances the Union Depot as a hub … but we’re talking about (tackling) concentrations of poverty in Ramsey County, disparities, getting folks to jobs,” Ortega said.

CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

The reason for the optimism is that the corridor has gotten busier since it was first studied nearly 20 years ago. The population has grown, and development along West Seventh continues to take off. Think the Schmidt Artist Lofts, the Seven Corners Hardware redevelopment, Victoria Parks Apartments and Bad Weather Brewery, to name a few.

Then mix in the residential boom still playing out in downtown St. Paul, the city’s big aims for the 135-acre Ford Site in Highland Park and the public’s evolving attitudes toward transit.

All of it makes the time right for a project to finally emerge, committee members said.

“People have seen the successes of the Blue Line and the Green Line,” said Kristin Beckmann, deputy mayor of St. Paul and another committee member.

If transit investments don’t happen, the east metro and the state will have a harder time staying competitive, said Jon Commers, a committee member representing the Metropolitan Council.

“Transit is not a passing fad; it’s a critical ingredient to the success of this region in the future,” Commers said.

Finding the money, though, will be tough. After landing federal backing, the Southwest line was challenged earlier this year when the Legislature opted against a bonding bill that included money for it; the rail line was a sticking point for Republicans. The news sent project supporters into a brief panic before local agencies stepped in.

Dakota County’s decision to pull out of the Counties for Transit Improvement Board also could complicate matters.

“I don’t think anything is a slam dunk for transit funding no matter what happens,” said Tim Busse, a Bloomington City Council member also on the committee.

SKEPTICS REMAIN

The challenges have some saying that this latest attempt might suffer the same fate as those past. Erik Hare, a member of the Riverview Corridor’s technical advisory committee and a resident of the West Seventh area, is among them.

He worries that politicians are leaning on the latest study to justify what they’ve wanted all along: light rail on West Seventh.

Rail staff as well as policy advisory committee members dispute that claim.

The project “is going to die a slow and painful death,” Hare predicts. “The fundamental problems have not been solved.”

Rail staff expect to have ridership and cost projections for the remaining options to shop around to the public at open houses this winter. Unless more delays are called, the committee is expected to vote on a locally preferred alternative in the spring.

Correction: An earlier version of this story contained an error. Construction of a dedicated transit lane along West Seventh, such as a path for light rail, would require 14-feet of right-of-way in each direction. The Pioneer Press regrets the error.