If you’re baffled by the details of Jon Jones’ most recent drug-test failure, you’re not alone.

In the week since news broke that the UFC light heavyweight champion tested positive for turinabol in an in-competition test conducted the day before his third-round knockout victory over Daniel Cormier at UFC 214, the Internet has been flooded with theories to explain it.

A Jackson-Wink MMA coach alleged a “setup” in the immediate aftermath. Jones’ agent, Malki Kawa, has said a supplement is likely to blame. Several others have hypothesized that he might have meant to take one performance-enhancing substance, perhaps something short-acting for the purposes of increasing aggression, only to receive a different substance by mistake.

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Still, none of those explanations fully explain why, after reportedly passing two different drug tests on July 6 and 7, Jones (23-1 MMA, 17-1 UFC) would fail one on July 28. Why would he begin using a new substance so close to the fight? And if he was looking for a fast-acting pre-fight boost, why would he take it prior to the day of the fight itself, and on a day when he knew he would be tested?

It’s not just perplexed fans and Internet analysts asking this question. You can include California State Athletic Commission Executive Director Andy Foster among the confused.

“This entire situation doesn’t make any sense to me,” Foster told MMAjunkie. “It just doesn’t.”

One explanation that’s been put forth is that turinabol, the substance Jones tested positive for, wasn’t included in earlier USADA tests, which would explain why it didn’t show up until the test conducted following pre-fight weigh-ins.

“No, that’s not true,” Foster said. “If you’re doing a steroid panel, then this drug is going to show up every time. The fact that it didn’t show up on (July 6 and 7) when he was tested before, that’s an indication that he was not on that drug at that time.”

(Update: A USADA official confirmed that testing for turinabol “is part of the regular urine test in all WADA accredited labs.”)

As for other possible explanations, Foster stressed that Jones is entitled to due process, which includes the careful testing of his “B” sample. If that comes back positive for the same substance, however, the potential options begin to narrow drastically.

“At that point, one of two things is probably going on here: He’s either extremely careless, or he’s a cheater,” Foster said. “I know he’s already been extremely careless once in his career … but none of this makes any sense. That’s why I think it’s very important that we vet this and look at all the available evidence before we jump to conclusions and hang this guy out to dry.”

According to Foster, the CSAC has five different attorneys already working on this case. A positive test of the “B” sample would trigger a suspension, but in order to get a hearing, Jones would need to appeal. Foster said he expects that appeal to be heard in a hearing likely to be held on Oct. 17 in Los Angeles.

As for potential punishments Jones, who’s No. 1 in the USA TODAY Sports/MMAjunkie MMA pound-for-pound rankings, might face for his second failed test in a little over a year, it’s possible that USADA could suspend him for up to four years. That doesn’t include the penalty that the CSAC might decide on, which Foster cautioned would be more immediately meaningful, since it affects Jones’ license and not just his standing under the UFC’s anti-doping program, which is specific to his status as a UFC-contracted fighter.

“We’d actually be suspending him in the association database, which would affect his license and his ability to get a license somewhere else,” Foster said. “It’ll hurt him with (USADA) because he’s under a UFC contract, but I would be surprised if USADA did more than the commission on this.”

As for what will happen to the UFC light heavyweight title if Jones’ test result is upheld and the bout is declared a no-contest, that’s “entirely up to the UFC,” Foster said.

As for how all the theories match with the reality of the story told by the tests, that has yet to be determined. But one thing’s for certain, according to Foster, and it’s that the California commission is devoting significant resources to answering these questions.

“We’ve got to figure this out because this is just crazy,” Foster said. “We’re going to get to the bottom of it.”

For complete coverage of UFC 214, check out the UFC Events section of the site.