6 key trends driving N.J's population changes

TRENTON – Recent patterns shaping New Jersey's population demographics were reinforced in New Jersey in 2014, with immigrants settling near New York helping to offset an exodus of established state residents.

New Jersey's total population as of mid-2014 was estimated by the Census Bureau at just over 8.9 million. Within that are a host of new details released today about who chooses to live here and where. Here are six things worth knowing about how New Jersey is changing.

1. The fastest-growing counties are the ones closest to New York City.

The four counties seeing the largest population increases all have river crossings and mass transit to connect commuters to New York: Bergen, Hudson, Middlesex and Union. Combined they added more than 20,000 residents between 2013 and 2014 and tacked on more than 101,000 since the 2010 census.

People have been opting for area with transportation choices over sprawling suburbs, said Janna Chernetz, New Jersey advocate at Tri-State Transportation Campaign. That leads to pressure on existing roads and bridges and for more frequent and higher-capacity mass transit service along rail lines in towns like Cranford and Fanwood, she said.

"It could be people who choose to live car-free. They want to be walkable. They want that suburb feel, but they still want transportation choice like they had in Hoboken or New York City," Chernetz said. "They might be working in New York but don't want to live there. They want to come to the suburbs but still have that freedom to move around and not be married to their car."

2. The smallest counties are getting smaller.

New Jersey's five least-populous counties have each shed residents since the last census: Cape May, Hunterdon, Salem, Sussex and Warren. Not coincidentally, they're also the state's most rural, remote areas. Their combined population is down more than 2 percent, or 11,700 people.

It's a phenomenon that has affected all the outermost counties on the perimeter of the New York metropolitan area, including counties in New York and covering the Poconos in Pennsylvania, said James Hughes, dean of Rutgers University's Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.

"We went too far in terms of development," said Hughes, who said household sizes in perimeter counties are shrinking. "It's largely due to millennials. They have suburban fatigue. They're grown, they're out of the house, and they'd rather live closer to transportation and the waterfront."

MORE: Will millennials save N.J.'s economy?

3. Your new neighbors probably are immigrants.

All 21 counties added to their population through immigration. The biggest impact was in the fast-growing counties near New York. In Hudson County, one out of every 68 residents as of mid-2014 had arrived in the country in the previous 12 months.

More can be done to support immigrants and integrate them into the economy, said a new coalition called the New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice, such as providing driver's licenses to people in the country illegally without documents. That population is estimated to be as high as 525,000.

"Immigrants have chosen New Jersey to be one of their top locations when they migrate to this country, so we are benefiting from them," said program coordinator Johanna Calle. "There are other states around the country with similar numbers or even smaller numbers who have been embracing of their immigrant residents and passed policies that allow immigrants to thrive and work in their communities."

MORE: New Jersey becoming more diverse

4. Your new neighbors probably aren't from New Jersey.

The flip side to the migration trend: Every county in New Jersey except Gloucester and Ocean counties recorded losses from county-to-county moves by people already living in the United States. Indeed, the exodus was measured at a net loss of nearly 55,500 people statewide, larger than the influx of 51,600 immigrants.

MORE: As Baby Boomers age, more expected to flee N.J.

5. Growth slowed a bit, though not in Ocean County.

Population changes tend to move in fits and starts, rather than a smooth trend, in the Census Bureau estimates. There's just one county in New Jersey where it has grown each year for the last four at an increasing pace: Ocean County, helped last year by adding 1,100 people through domestic migration.

MORE: Population boom anticipated for southwestern Lakewood

6. Monmouth & Camden counties buck the pattern.

Six of the state's seven largest counties grew by at least 0.5 percent last year and at least 1.5 percent since 2010. The sole outlier has been Monmouth County, where the population has nudged down in three of the last four years.

Camden County is recording even more rapid shrinkage. Its loss of nearly 1,100 residents in 2014 was largest in the state, and its loss of 2,600 people since the 2010 census is second only to Sussex County.

Michael Symons: (609) 984-4336; msymons@app.com