Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries Biden is a clear favorite in four contests, but there’s room for a Sanders upset in three others

With six states headed to the ballot box today, it’s once again time for FiveThirtyEight to freeze its forecast to see where things stand.

Today’s contests are divided between those that former Vice President Joe Biden will almost certainly win (99 percent chance) and those where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a clearer chance. As the table below shows, Biden is a strong favorite to win four of the seven contests, including three of the four biggest delegate hauls: Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi, as well as North Dakota. But Biden is also a more modest favorite over Sanders in the other three contests — Washington, Idaho and Democrats Abroad — and there’s plenty of room for an upset victory from Sanders. (Especially Democrats Abroad, which has not been polled and is especially hard to model.)

Biden is favored everywhere on March 10 Percent chance each top Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9 a.m. Eastern on March 10 State Pledged delegates Biden Sanders Michigan 125 99% 1% Washington 89 60 40 Missouri 68 99 1 Mississippi 36 99 1 Idaho 20 81 19 North Dakota 14 93 7 Democrats Abroad* 13 65 35 *Democrats Abroad started voting on March 3, but voting ends today.

Many of these states were competitive for Sanders in 2016, too. He won Michigan as part of a shocking victory, came super close to winning Missouri and won Idaho and Washington by large margins. This time, though, polls and demographic trends point to Biden’s advantage across the map.

There wasn’t a polling shortage heading into today either: We have almost 30 state and national polls conducted since Super Tuesday with most coming from Michigan, which makes sense given that it is Tuesday’s delegate prize. Of the 10 polls we have of Michigan, all show Biden in the lead — but his lead ranges anywhere from 8 to 41 points over Sanders, with most polls putting Biden ahead by at least 20 points. Here are those Michigan surveys we have in order of release:

There have also been a handful of post-Super Tuesday polls in the other states voting today:

What about the state of the overall race? The overall picture has become pretty clear. Our forecast views Biden as an overwhelming favorite with a 99 in 100 shot (more than a 99 percent chance) of winning a majority of pledged delegates. By contrast, Sanders is now an underdog with less than a 1 in 100 shot (0.1 percent chance) of winning a delegate majority, thanks to Biden’s strong performance on Super Tuesday and his lead in the polls. The scenario where no one wins a majority of pledged delegates has also fallen and now has just a 1 in 100 (0.8 percent) chance of occurring.

We have five new national surveys since last Tuesday, and each found Biden with a double-digit lead over Sanders. The two most recent live-caller polls were bullish for Biden, as CNN/SSRS found Biden ahead of Sanders by 16 points and Quinnipiac University found an even larger margin of 19 points. Two online pollsters that conducted surveys after Super Tuesday also found Biden leading by similar margins: Morning Consult found him up 18 points over Sanders and a new poll from Reuters/Ipsos showed Biden up 17 points against Sanders (another Reuters/Ipsos survey released right after Super Tuesday found Biden up 10 points head-to-head with Sanders). Biden now leads our national polling average by about 19 points after trailing Sanders by 11 points before Super Tuesday.

Biden’s ascent was sudden, but signs now point to this being clearly his race to lose. Of course, we said this about Sanders not so long ago, so the race can still change, but Sanders is running out of time to make a comeback, and he needs to pull off some upset victories today to stay in contention as the primary marches on.