lok-sabha-elections

Updated: May 20, 2019 08:07 IST

Hours after the last phase of the general elections was over on Sunday, came the exit poll predictions. For Delhi, which has seven Lok Sabha seats and went to the polls in the sixth phase on May 12, the speculations varied between five to seven seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which seemed to leave at most two seats for the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party in the triangular fight.

Despite the extensive coverage for exit polls, such predictions have had a history of being inaccurate in terms of exact seat predictions.

At present, the BJP occupies all seven seats in the capital.

While the BJP said that they were “not surprised” by the predictions, the AAP said that the party has often been “underestimated” in the such predictions. The Congress refrained from commenting on the predictions but leaders said they are hopeful.

“If you look at old exit polls, all of them have often under-estimated the AAP,” said Raghav Chadha, the party’s national spokesperson and candidate from South Delhi constituency. He elaborated, “In 2013 assembly election, the average prediction in exit polls was four seats, we won 28 seats. In 2014 general elections, the prediction was zero for us, we went on to win four seats in Punjab. In 2015, the average prediction was 25, we bagged 67 seats in Delhi.”

Also read: Four different scenarios predict victory for NDA; over to May 23

Sanjay Singh, a senior leader of the AAP and Rajya Sabha member, said that exit polls have proved wrong over the past many elections and that he would wait for May 23 for the actual results.

While the Congress said it is expecting to do well in all seven seats, one of the party’s Delhi working presidents and candidate from North West Delhi Rajesh Lilothia said he was confident that the party would wrest at least four seats with a good margin.

“As per the feedback that we have received, we have done well in all seven constituencies. I could say that we are winning with a good majority in at least four seats including North West, North East, New Delhi and Chandni Chowk, as people have voted for anti-incumbency,” said Lilothia, who is contesting a parliamentary election for the first time.

On the probability chart, most Congress leaders have placed their bets on two seats — West Delhi and East Delhi. The candidates from these two seats are Mahabal Mishra and Arvinder Singh Lovely.

“It is a very close contest on these two seats as well and exit poll predictions could easily be reversed,” a senior party functionary said.

Also read: Exit polls gossip, don’t trust them, says Mamata Banerjee

Delhi BJP chief Manoj Tiwari said that the prediction of the exit poll results were “not a surprise”.

“Everyone knew we are winning, not just in Delhi but in all states, with a huge margin. The honourable experts have given their verdict today and the people of Delhi will put a final stamp of approval on May 23,” said Tiwari who contested election from the North-East Delhi seat against Congress heavyweight Sheila Dikshit and the AAP’s Dilip Pandey.

He said that the people of Delhi had already rejected the Congress, and the voters realised the “hollowness” of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

Not less than four for the BJP: Experts

“The result of the 2014 general elections reflect that a triangular contest in Delhi favours the BJP,” said Tanvir Aijaz, a political scientist and professor in Delhi’s Ramjas College. “But again, in Delhi’s case, there is an anti-incumbency factor which is likely to negate that advantage.”

According to P K Datta, a political analyst and professor in Jawaharlal Nehru University, the BJP winning seven out of seven seats in Delhi is “not impossible but it is not probable either”. He explained, “There is a reasonable possibility for the AAP doing fairly good in three parliamentary constituencies, which includes East Delhi, North West Delhi and South Delhi.”

“There are reasons. First, these constituencies have a large number of voters who come under the lower middle class and poor segments in the economic strata. For the AAP, they have been a vote base. Second, by the time Delhi went to the polls, the BJP’s pitch on national security had visibly waned in terms of impact,” Datta said.

The speculation could still be difficult, said Aijaz. “The BJP, being a right wing party, also has a cadre vote. This vote base comprises of people who would cast their votes for the party no matter what. Parties on the extreme Left and extreme Right have always had cadre votes. On the other hand, parties like the Congress and the AAP, which are Centrists in terms of ideology, the reliance is high on floating votes. This is a vote base comprising people who would consider several factors before casting votes, unlike cadres.”

Both Aijaz and Datta said that the BJP is likely to win at least four seats out of seven in Delhi.

Triangular Fight

In 2014, the BJP had won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi. This general election, the party fielded five of its seven incumbent MPs and brought two start candidates – former international cricketer Gautam Gambhir, and Punjabi pop and Sufi singer Hans Raj Hans.

For the AAP, it was the second Lok Sabha contest in Delhi. In 2014, the party had stood second in terms of vote share. The following year, it went on to bag as many as 67 out of 70 seats in Delhi in the assembly polls. For around four months ahead of the elections, the AAP and the Congress had engaged in talks of an alliance, which, in the end, did not materialise over differences in seat sharing agreement.

While the AAP was the first party to field candidates to all seven seats in Delhi, the Congress was the last. The Congress, which won all seven seats in Delhi in 2009, fielded mostly political heavyweights that include former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit and former MPs such as Ajay Maken and J P Agarwal.

Also read: In Hindi heartland, exit polls predict BJP to reverse 3 state poll losses

While the primary poll plank of the AAP was full statehood for Delhi, the BJP relied more on the “Modi wave” and national security issues. The Congress, on the other hand, stressed more on its achievements in its 15 years’ rule, their campaign trails suggest.

Here is a look at the numbers

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