The unusual step is being taken to commemorate not only the 70th year of India’s independence, but also the 50th anniversary of the creation of ASEAN earlier this month. (Express File Photo by Tashi Tobgyal) The unusual step is being taken to commemorate not only the 70th year of India’s independence, but also the 50th anniversary of the creation of ASEAN earlier this month. (Express File Photo by Tashi Tobgyal)

India has collectively invited all leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the group of ten countries in that region, to be the chief guests at its 2018 Republic Day celebrations. All ten countries have, “in principle”, accepted they will send their heads of state or government to the event.

This is the first time that more than one head of state or government will be part of the Republic Day celebrations. In whatever manner protocol etiquette plays out, the fact that ten leaders from South-East Asia will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with President Ram Nath Kovind and Prime Minister Narendra Modi behind a bullet-proof enclosure on January 26, is enough to make heads turn.

The unusual step is being taken to commemorate not only the 70th year of India’s independence, but also the 50th anniversary of the creation of ASEAN earlier this month. India and ASEAN will also celebrate 25 years of its partnership, when its Look East policy was launched by Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao in 1992. With so many anniversaries under its belt, images of the ASEAN Ten — Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines — taking the salute together on Republic Day will be enough to make this a significant moment in Delhi’s diplomatic calendar.

Meanwhile, Rao’s Look East policy has been transformed to the Prime Minister’s Act East policy. Prime Minister Modi is expected to participate in the India-ASEAN summit this November in Manila. The invitation to ASEAN is being done with one eye on China — it is also Beijing’s largest economic partner. At a time when Indian troops are eyeball-to-eyeball with Chinese troops in the Himalayas, the reaching out to ASEAN is also aimed at putting China on notice that two can play this game of expanding spheres of influence.

Government sources said this is “Delhi’s way of saying that China must also learn to come to terms with the other Asian power in the region, India.” ASEAN’s big economic success is a big draw for India. The grouping’s combined GDP has grown from $95 billion in 1970 to $2.5 trillion in 2014, not far behind China. And despite its financial diversity — Singapore tops with its per capita income of $52,960, which is 22 times that of Laos’ $2353 — and political differences, the grouping has held firm.

Some of the less pro-China nations in the region, like Singapore and Indonesia, are already saying that China cannot take them for granted. When Indonesia built an artificial island in the Natuna Sea and then claimed part of the adjacent South China Sea (which is fully claimed by China) as part of its exclusive economic zone, it was ready for and stared down the Chinese protest. Former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran recently recounted the furore in Singapore, in reaction to a public intellectual’s comments about the small country needing to come to terms with a rising China, pointing out that it “shouldn’t wear a sombrero when it doesn’t fit”. None other than the Singapore Foreign Ministry had to issue a statement to calm the people’s anger.

Loosely stated, Singapore and Indonesia, along with Vietnam and Thailand, are said to be less influenced by China, while much poorer Laos and Cambodia are believed to be much closer to Beijing. Singapore takes over the ASEAN chairmanship at the summit from Thailand in November, which means that its Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will be the first among equals when the Big Ten come to Delhi for the Republic Day in January.

Incidentally, Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi is moving towards a much more intimate relationship with Beijing, allowing it to build a port at Kyaukphu on the Arakan coast. Along with Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan, the Chinese seem to have wrapped up key locations for its One Belt One Road Initiative. Delhi is hoping its close friendships with Japan and Korea, along with key ASEAN nations who are in close proximity with China — like Vietnam, whose portion of the South China sea has also been gobbled up by the Chinese — will be enough to send a message to the Chinese that India won’t hesitate in expanding its reach.

On her part, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj is reiterating India’s civilizational role in the region, insisting that influence was won by the “three Cs, connectivity, commerce and culture,” — the building of temples in Cambodia, like Siem Reap, and in Indonesia like Borobodur — and never by “conquest or colonization”. The Prime Minister also hopes that India’s large market will be of interest to ASEAN. Just as Singapore is sometimes called India’s cleanest city (one-fifth of Singapore’s 5 million population is Indian expatriate), Modi hopes that India can also make good use of ASEAN’s service opportunities.

Together, India and ASEAN account for about 1.9 billion people (about 650 million in ASEAN) and a combined GDP of nearly $4 trillion. This is about $1 trillion more than China. Two-way trade is about $76 billion, on par with Delhi’s trade with Beijing.

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