The margin for error has evaporated. Your playoffs either start this week or next, and chances are, you can't afford a loss. You can't afford to be wrong because it could mean the end of your season.

Let's hope I'm not wrong this week.

Tom Brady is a matchup-dependent QB1 without Gronk

One of my best pickups in 15 years of playing Fantasy football came in Week 6 of the 2014 season. Tom Brady had been dropped a few weeks earlier, following his rough start to the season. Brady had just four touchdowns in his first four games of the season, while completing just 59.1 percent of his passes and picking up 5.8 yards per attempt. Brady, at 37, looked pretty much cooked, though the lack of help he was receiving from his offensive line didn't help matters.

Brady, of course, turned things around from that point on, tossing multiple touchdowns in 10 of his next 11 games, and I rode him to a 6-1 record and No. 1 seed in the playoffs that season. He looked like the dominant guy we've all come to know and love, the same guy he's been for the most part this season. Maybe Week 13's tough matchup against the Rams explains away a relatively lackluster performance Sunday, but I'd bet there's a deeper reason -- the absence of Rob Gronkowski.

Brady had Gronkowski available in the early going of 2014, but Gronk clearly wasn't himself as he worked his way back from knee surgery. Gronkowski played just 51.1 percent of the team's snaps in the first four games, and Brady's resurgence coincided with Gronkowski getting back to full strength. Gronkowski played 79 percent of the snaps in Week 5, and logged 87 percent from that point on, giving Brady the offensive focal point he needed to reach his full potential.

Maybe Brady can hit that level without Gronkowski this time around, but the early returns aren't great. He dominated the 49ers in Week 11 without Gronk, but had a merely decent game -- 23 Fantasy points on 50 pass attempts -- in Week 12 against the Jets, and then struggled against the Rams in Week 13. In each instance, his performance seemed more dictated by the quality of opponent than anything else, and Brady has averaged a paltry 6.1 yards per attempt over his last three games, a mark that would be the second-worst in the NFL for a full season.

Against an average matchup, Brady should be pretty easy to get in your lineup. Week 16 against the Jets certainly qualifies. However, he has the Ravens (eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks) in Week 14, followed by the Broncos (first), which could mean a rough close to the season for one of the best quarterbacks in football.

Dion Lewis isn't going to happen this year

Speaking of the Patriots, I might as well make all of New England mad at me with this one. There's no question Lewis can be a difference maker. He proved it last season before his injury, and we're seeing real flashes of it yet again in his limited role so far this season. Lewis is a shifty runner who can make plays as either a runner or pass-catcher, and we know the Patriots know how to get him involved.

However, they also don't have any real need to lean too heavily on Lewis, given the presence of LeGarrette Blount and James White. Neither Blount nor White is as dynamic in either facet of the game -- let alone as well-rounded overall -- but neither have they given the Patriots any reason to get them out of the offense. The result has been a three-headed running back monster, with no player logging more than 36 of the team's 79 snaps on offense this week.

Lewis actually brought up the rear with 20 snaps in Week 13. Maybe injuries to Gronkowski and Danny Amendola can get him more involved in the passing game, but there isn't any obvious reason for the Patriots to limit White and Blount's exposure at this point.

The Saints don't have any reliable wide receivers

The Saints' top three wide receivers, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and Willie Snead, are having a terrific season collectively. Drew Brees is on pace for one of the best seasons of his storied career, and the injection of young playmakers has played a big part. The trio compliments each other well, and Fantasy players have viewed all three as must-own players throughout the season. And they have been, by any measure.

However, the presence of three options in the passing game has led to some frustrating results. While the trio has combined for at least 12 receptions and 143 yards in all but one game so far this season -- with just two games without a score between them -- the individual results have been inconsistent at best. Over the past four games, Cooks and Thomas have just one game with double digits in Fantasy scoring, and Snead has two, but needed a 50-yard touchdown pass to Tim Hightower on a trick play to get there in Week 12.

There's no question each of these receivers is talented enough in his own right to be worthy of a spot in any Fantasy lineup. However, as Week 13 put into stark relief, if Drew Brees isn't at the top of his game, all three can bust. And even at the best of times, it's hard to know which of the three will be useful on any given week. It's tough to go away from them -- especially Cooks and Thomas -- but it's hard trust anyone here.

Golden Tate is a must-start Fantasy WR

Marvin Jones became the trendy pick in Detroit this offseason and, for the first handful of weeks this season, he certainly looked like a No. 1 WR for the Lions. Tate, on the other hand, had just 17 catches for 134 yards in the first five games of the season when Jones surpassed him in the Lions' heirarchy.

Something changed in Week 6, however, when Tate turned in a huge game in a win over the Rams. However, it wasn't just Tate who changed. Jones' season took a turn for the worse as well, as the Lions' doubled down on a conservative approach that mostly limited Matthew Stafford to shorter, high-efficiency throws. Tate is among the best receivers in the league after the catch, and his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands has allowed him to singularly thrive in this new offensive landscape. He has averaged 11 Fantasy points per game in standard scoring since Week 6, while reaching double figures in six of the last seven in PPR.

Matchups against the Giants and Cowboys in Weeks 15 and 16 represent challenges, but it's going to be hard to justify sitting Tate at this pace.

Tyreek Hill is being overrated

I'm actually not sure Hill is being overrated by Fantasy analysts, most of whom have pegged him as a No. 3 wide receiver in light of his breakout. However, I think it might be fair to say Fantasy owners have gotten a bit too excited about the potential Hill has shown, as he was started in 51 percent of CBSSports.com leagues in Week 13. These poll results probably also overstate just how good Hill has been as well:

Which WR would you rather start in Week 14? — Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) December 5, 2016

Hill is a threat to score everytime he touches the ball, as he proved in a dynamic performance in Week 12, scoring as a receiver, a runner, and a return man. However, he has been pretty pedestrian otherwise, topping double figures in Fantasy scoring in standard leagues just once in four games without Jeremy Maclin. He played just 51 percent of the Chiefs offensive snaps in Week 13 as well, a sign that, despite his talents, he isn't quite ready for a full-time role just yet.

Hill is a fine No. 3 WR, with plenty of upside and the potential to go off for a big performance in any given game. He is also averaging just 9.6 yards per catch, plays in a conservative offense, and isn't a full-time player. He is the definition of a boom-or-bust player, so don't mistake him for something more just because he has the potential to be that some day.

The Lions are no longer a matchup to target

I don't blame anyone who rolled out plenty of Saints in Week 13, despite the subpar performance. However, that's mostly because the Saints are pretty much unstoppable at the Superdome, not because the Lions are an especially great matchup. As a matter of fact, they aren't a great matchup at all these days, and that should have been clear before they held Drew Brees without a touchdown at home for the first time in 60 starts.

The Lions looked like a mess on defense early in the season, allowing 25.5 points per game in their first six. When they won, as they did jut three times in the first six games, they did so by outscoring teams. However, their change in offensive philosophy -- detailed in the Tate section earlier -- wasn't just about changing their offensive fortunes. The Lions also wanted to limit the exposure of their defense by keeping the ball more, stringing together longer drives, and generally dictating the tempo of the game.

And they have succeeded. The Lions have been stout against running backs all season, and haven't allowed 100 yards on the ground to a running back since Week 4, but the improvement against the pass has really impressed. Though they allowed the fifth-most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks overall, the Lions have given up just five passing touchdowns in the past six games, including none over the last two.

The Lions aren't exceedingly talented on defense, but they have figured out how to leverage their offensive game plan in a way that helps their defense the most. At this point, the Lions are no longer a team you target when they show up on the schedule.