Roster Outlook

Goalkeeper

For better or worse, Tim Howard will spend basically every game between the sticks for the Rapids in 2019, and given his illustrious career and impending retirement, I think Rapids fans will be mostly happy about it this time around. Despite being the highest paid player on the team, he was an average keeper statistically in 2018, letting in just one more goal than the baseline ASA model would predict based on shot data (0.71 GA–xG). A past fan-favorite in Colorado, Irwin returns from Toronto FC to pick up the back-up keeper’s mantle. But while longtime fans remember his terrific play after Matt Pickens’s injury in 2013 to win the job outright, he’s not here to challenge Howard. Irwin has faced his own recent injuries, and lost the starting Toronto job to Alex Bono. He let in 4-5 more goals in than would be expected based on the shots he faced in 671 minutes last year, which is a small sample size, but still not a promising statistic. Andre Rawls should become the third keeper on the depth chart, and will probably spend the majority of 2019 playing in Colorado Springs.

Defense

The Rapids’ defense in 2018 was not terribly effective, letting in 61 goals (tied with LA Galaxy for seventh-worst) and allowing opponents to generate 57.4 expected goals. Fans might be initially upset that, apart from losing Castillo and gaining Rosenberry, not much about the defensive line has changed. However, I think this isn’t a terrible decision, given that the Rapids’ defense were not in a good position to perform at their best (and how bad the offense was). Hudson played the first half of 2018 with five players in the back line, a new look for all of the Rapids hold-overs from 2017, and many of the incoming players as well. Injuries also took their toll, with key homegrown player Kortne Ford playing a lot of right back instead of his natural center back position when wasn’t injured himself in the first part of the year.

Hudson’s nominal switch to the 4-4-2 helped make things easier for the defenders, even though center back Danny Wilson got a few starts in defensive midfield. This will be the formation the Rapids stick with in 2019, and adding Rosenberry will help keep everyone in their proper positions on the field. The big question, of course, is at left back, where Castillo’s departure has left the biggest hole on the roster. As of writing, Colorado has two left backs signed to the team: Sam Vines and Deklan Wynne. Wynne played just over 2000 minutes in 2018 while the 19-year-old homegrown Vines played 45 minutes, but I expect this to be a legitimate competition in preseason and the first few games. It’s also very possible that the front office is looking to sign another left back in the coming weeks or in the summer. The Rapids currently have a glut of center backs, with Wilson, Ford, Tommy Smith, and Axel Sjoberg all getting starts there (and sometimes elsewhere) last year, not to mention new homegrown signing Sam Raben. It’s possible that one will be a trade target for another MLS team in dire need, but I suspect that Ford and Smith will be getting the majority of CB starts in 2019.

Midfield

Hudson has actually been talking a decent amount about how he wants his midfield to play, and the tactical flexibility it is designed to enable. I recommend his 10-minute combine interview with ExtraTime Radio, released on February 4th. In that interview, he describes his diamond four as “more of a one and a three,” which is a shout out to his initial 5-3-2 formation last year, and works somewhat like Gregg Berhalter’s CDM role for Wil Trapp in Columbus. In this tactical look, the CDM often drops into the back line, while the CBs split wide, and the full backs press forward. Jack Price is basically a lock as the starter at CDM, which should help move Colorado’s possession forward out of their half when on the attack. Price doesn’t quite compare with the best defensive midfielders statistically, but he did make 2.07 interceptions per game in 2018, a good deal higher than MLS darlings and U.S. internationals Michael Bradley (1.36) and Trapp (1.41). If Price can turn his penchant for yellow cards into a few more successful tackles, his stock could rise very quickly.

While the front midfield three generally operates as two eights playing somewhat centrally, and a 10 pushing higher up the pitch, Hudson has mentioned that the eights will sometimes drift wide as wingers, while the 10 will be asked to slide back to add to numbers to the midfield spine. There was lots of rotation at these positions in 2018, as players came in and out of the roster, and Hudson tried to adapt the players he inherited to the style he tried to implement. I expect this experimentation to continue, especially with eights swapping in and out, and being played on both sides of the diamond. More often than not, these two starters will be Kellyn Acosta and Benny Feilhaber, but Sam Nicholson, Johan Blomberg, Nana Boateng, and teenage homegrown revelation Cole Basset will get minutes there as well. Newcomer Nicolas Mezquida is poised to start at attacking center midfielder, but I suspect Dillon Serna will make plenty of substitute appearances there, as well as elsewhere in the diamond. It feels like this group of midfielders was chosen specifically for their positional flexibility, so don’t be surprised to see plenty of rotation in starters and where players are lined up on gameday.

Forward

The forward situation has been nothing short of a disaster for years in Commerce City, and 2018 was rock bottom. The Rapids scored only 34 goals, amounting to one per game, and seven goals short of the second-worst total in MLS that year. The underlying numbers were just as bad, with Colorado generating only 37.5 expected goals, again the worst in the league. Before he was traded for Kellyn Acosta, Dominique Badji was again the only bright spot for the Rapids, scoring seven goals in 16 games, enough to still be the team’s top scorer by the end of October.

From the start of 2018 to now, there’s been almost a complete turnover at the forward position. Only two players remain: Shkelzen Gashi, signed as a DP from Basel in 2016 who made some real magic happen out of nothing that year, and has done absolutely nothing since; and Niki Jackson, a 2018 fourth-round pick who actually scored the first Rapids goal of 2018 at Gillette Stadium (literally 50 yards in front of me! It was a pretty incredible goal, look it up). The Rapids even left Gashi unprotected during FC Cincinnati’s expansion draft, so it’s pretty clear he’s not expected to make much of a contribution in his final contract year.

While Jackson will hopefully continue to develop and score some goals off the bench, newcomers Kei Kamara and Diego Rubio will be in the starting line up most games. According to Hudson, Kamara was acquired for his proven goal scoring ability in MLS as well as his locker room presence, while Rubio’s all-around game is supposed to help link the attacking players together and put pressure on opposing defenses. Also expect Andre Shinyashiki, the top scorer in men’s college soccer last year, to get minutes along with Jackson, and hopefully both will find success under Kamara’s mentorship, much like Alphonso Davies last year (I’m not expecting either to be sold to Europe ever, but it’s clear Davies and Kamara had a strong emotional bond in Vancouver). New teenage homegrown signing Matt Hundley probably won’t get a single MLS minute this year, but I’m hoping he’ll get a good amount of USL playing time with the Switchbacks in Colorado Springs.

Expectations for 2019

It’s hard to say what my expectations for the Colorado Rapids are in 2019. I suspect they’ll be middle of the pack, pushing for a playoff spot all the way into October, and they may even sneak into that new seventh-place playoff spot, but that’s an outside shot though. Given their continued high-end salary constrains from Howard and Gashi, I think the Rapids and their fans would be very happy with 40-50 points in 2019, around where Vancouver, LA Galaxy, and Real Salt Lake finished in 2018. At the very least, the team MUST change the absolutely abysmal goal differential from last year (-27). Anything worse than -5 or -10 will be a big problem, suggesting that the team didn’t improve for a second year in a row.

I also don’t expect Hudson or Smith to be on the hot seat quite yet this year, so long as there is some measurable improvement. Hudson’s original contract was for three years, the Rapids roster was really, really bad at the end of 2017, and there wasn’t much wiggle room for 2018. The Rapids made some poor signings, especially on offense, but these were low-commitment contracts, with the Rapids not exactly being an attractive destination for star players as of yet. There’s been almost the exact same amount roster turnover as last offseason, so obviously the team is not sticking with a failed plan. Smith and the front office have taken a different approach, with the Rapids completely eschewing transfers from outside the league. But the club is still not taking on much long term risk: they’ve absorbed current contracts through trades, and signed low-risk homegrowns, at least one college rookie, and a salary-restricted MLS free agent contract. While the core for the future is taking shape, the team will be able to shed a lot of the players that may not fit the vision beyond this season, and setting the team up for a 2020 playoff run is probably the primary goal for Hudson and Smith.