The day has come and gone — National Signing Day. It’s a day that — if you’re a rationally irrational fan like myself — leaves you with an inane amount of hope when you know deep down that you should have zero expectations. It’s ridiculous to believe that an incoming class of 16 to 25 barely legal adults can have such a profound impact on your team. Nevertheless we do.

As a collegiate sports culture, we put so much excitement on official letters of intent. It’s the veil that separates our hopes and beliefs from reality. If your team traditionally blows, maybe this recruiting class will be the one to win you — the fan — a national championship in three to five years. If your team under performed, then maybe you collected a few new cogs to get the machine running again. If your team just missed it last year, maybe that one freshman running back is the missing piece to the puzzle. If your team won the national championship, maybe this new class is just as strong to keep the dynasty alive. NSD isn’t just for the hopeless teams, it’s for everyone.

That’s why this day has become a national spectacle, albeit a highly unnecessary one, because in the same way we have seen college stars burnout as soon as they touch professional turf we have seen the same happen with blue chip recruits in college. While National Signing Day could bring about some of the finest and best clay the country can provide, very little can be correctly molded without the right tools.

*****

Penn State, once again, has one of the top recruiting classes in the country behind James Franklin, and that comes during a tumultuous off-season. This, as I stated earlier, has gotten me incredibly excited for the upcoming season. And considering where we should be, it’s hard not to be when you have one of the best running backs in the nation coming to your alma mater, along with some of the best offensive and defensive prospects in the country. However, these hopes may be unfounded.

Going back to 2010, Penn State had a Top 15 class in the nation and arguably the best in the Big Ten (some standouts from that class are Silas Redd, Rob Bolden, C.J. Olanyian, Mike Hull, and DaQuan Jones). This was no surprise seeing we were only two seasons removed from the 2009 Rose Bowl, and the previous year saw Penn State at a #4 ranking before a loss to Iowa (2009-2010 season ultimately ended with a two losses and a win against a very good LSU team in a rainy Citrus Bowl). Penn State had the seniority and it seemed that they may have bounded back from the dark days of the early 2000s. The old program on the rise again. They could actually do it.

When the season came around, so did the truth. There were major draft losses with Jared Odrick, Sean Lee, Navarro Bowman, and Andrew Quarless, and the quarterback position was still incredibly uncertain. As we found out, Rob Bolden got the start over the walk-on Matt McGloin, becoming the first true freshman to start under Paterno. From there, the season was a long road ahead that was going to be under some major construction.

Signs were abundant. The Nittany Lions didn’t score against Temple until late in the fourth quarter which is always a tell tale sign of how good they are (Colin Wagner made five of six field goals on that day before Zordich pounded the ball for what seemed to be 15 straight plays before he got into the south end zone). They played two ranked teams in five weeks, #1 Alabama and #18 Iowa, and could not score a touchdown against either one of them; they wouldn’t score against a ranked team that season until they played Ohio State on November 13th. Evan Royster, the running back of hype, proved he couldn’t do much without a line and didn’t get his first 100-yard game until week four against Temple (these include games against Youngstown State and Kent State). Penn State also lost to Michigan State at home for the first time since 1965 (to be fair, the Spartans were #10 in the nation, but even Zack Mills beat them in 2004).

Sure, there were a few bright spots. Somehow Penn State played in a good bowl against a good Florida team, and played a good game despite what the score and five interceptions say. We also got to see Joe Pa’s 400th win in an exciting-but-shouldn’t-have-been game against Northwestern. Regardless, the signs were that a Big Ten championship, a Rose Bowl, and especially a National Championship were not coming soon. It was regression, and it didn’t look good.

When 2011 reared it’s head, Penn State had a class that didn’t finish in the Top 25 (yes, that 2011 class), and occasionally even finished behind Rutgers (yes, that Rutgers). Combined with the same expected quarterback play it didn’t seem pretty. Nor was it. The football schedule was easy enough, playing only three ranked teams, two of which were in the Big Ten, and six of those other games were determined by 10 points or less (including a 14-10 win over Temple; but hey, at least we scored against the future national champ Alabama this time). We were, at one point, the worst 9-2 team in the nation.

Of course, 2011 was also the year that we found out about the Second Mile scandal, which led to a huge burst of air when this was revealed during the week leading up to the Nebraska game. The firing led to an atmosphere of confusion around Penn State, and while we pretended to keep moving forward with our lives, the dark cloud of the Sandusky’s exploits were seen everywhere. The last part of the season was difficult to get through but they did. And that would be the last time the Nittany Lions would be ranked.

*****

With the removal and ultimate death of Paterno, it was on the new staff to hopefully orchestrate a good recruiting class, even hiring an OC fresh off a Super Bowl. Bill O’Brien and his staff did what they could, but there were very few players wanting to play for “Ped State,” which ultimately led to an abysmal year of recruiting. Penn State’s recruiting class, while having some standouts like Austin Johnson, Jesse James, and Geno Lewis, would not be ranked higher than 46 and in most cases landed at 51. Then came July 23rd.

Solely based on football, this was unarguably the worst day for the program, so I don’t have to really go over it. The only team who has received harsher punishment in NCAA history were the SMU Mustangs, and the closest in recent history was USC for the Reggie Bush debacle. In retrospect it’s funny how we used to think that the early 2000s were the “dark days” because as a fan base, we weren’t used to losing that consecutively. Oh how naive we were.

Considering how any player was able to transfer without penalty. Considering the loss in scholarships allowed to be allotted. Considering how the Lions weren’t going to play in a bowl game or B1G Championship for four years. Considering that a lifetime’s worth of games were abolished from history. It’s all hard to imagine why any player, current or future, would stay. But this is Penn State, and it’s full of stubborn folk who have drank the blue and white Kool-Aid, love it, and don’t have a second thought about it.

Entering the 2012 season, there was an unmatched fire on the field, in the team, and on the campus. Every player and fan who stayed just wanted to give a solid “fuck you” to every person who doubted the team. However, while most people were excited we were still allowed to play football, the expectation levels were incredibly low. Penn State football was the one kid on the team who was going to try hard to play their best no matter what, which you rooted for, but ultimately you knew they weren’t going amount to much. No matter how much you hated to admit it.

Fans showed up to watch our comeback game against — what would end up being a pretty good — Ohio Bobcat team. It wasn’t the days of old when 107,000 would show up to watch us trounce Buffalo. Understandably, these games have a lower attendance, because beating up on a MAC team is as good a barometer for strength as a blue-chip recruit mentally, physically, and emotionally destroying the undeserving high schoolers he played against. But since 2009, attendance had been dipping. People seemed tired of mediocrity on the field. It had been four years, which in college is usually the cycle from a bad/average team to good team, and they knew they weren’t going to get that this year. Some fans wanted an out, yet they felt obligated to attend Penn State games. Now they had that.

The attendance level dropped astronomically in the 2012-2013 season, with only one game bringing in over 100,000 fans (that was against an undefeated Ohio State who was also feeling their last year of tattooed penalties). At times it was hard to watch. The Virginia game. The special teams. The lack of an agile running back. The Nebraska game. There were bright moments as well. At the time, our first win in program history in 15 years. Beating a ranked Northwestern on homecoming. And of course the Nittany Lions, on Senior Day, getting the win they deserve.

It was great to see that. Whether a student, alumnus, or fan of college football, it was great to watch that season end the way it did. It was a miracle they ended 8-4. But really it shouldn’t have been that surprising.

*****

What outsiders don’t realize is that Bill O’Brien had very little to do with maintaining the team together. The team had everything to do with keeping the team together.

2012 was led by a veteran corp, the same people that kept the team together in Mauti, Zordich, and Hodges to name a few. McGloin was entering his first full-year as a starter, so he at least had some experience to go on. The sanctions should have leveled the team, but as we all know it didn’t.

Only fifteen players transferred, but really Penn State had only three major losses in the wake: Justin Brown, who was by far the best success story out of PSU at Oklahoma; Silas Redd, who was posed for a breakout year at State really faltered at Tailback U; and of course Anthony Fera who without a doubt, was the biggest loss in it all, but gets a pass because he’s from Texas and went back to play at UT to be closer to his mother who was diagnosed with MS right before he left for State College. The only other notable losses were Rob Bolden, the former starter and better-athlete-than-QB who became a back-up at LSU then later Eastern Michigan, and Paul Jones, the former five star who I personally believe should have started but as we found out was not even competent enough to play tight end. That Penn State team was the same team, and because of the senior leadership, did not go anywhere.

Therefore, the biggest crippling should have been in the area of recruiting, given our massive reduction of scholarships and having been exposed to the Second Mile happenings for over a year now. but even with only 16 scholarships, Penn State still recorded a higher recruiting class than they had the year before. The 5-star, pro-style Hackenberg being the biggest saving grace as well as the four-star TE Brenneman help wrangle together a very respectable 2013 class that included Garrett Sickels and DaeSean Hamilton. While it was no Top 25 finish, what O’Brien was able to piece together was pretty miraculous.

The 2013 season poked its head around the corner and it kind of had the same air to it that 2012 did. There were honestly lower expectations, but everyone felt a little more at ease with our program. It would be in good hands after everything was lifted, but for now it was to be nurtured seeing as how the veteran leadership had graduated and we were bringing in a freshman quarterback.

Now, this is where recruiting really started to play a part in the new-era of Penn State football. As I mentioned earlier Rob Bolden was the first true-freshman QB to start under Paterno – the first freshman QB in 44 years. In Bill O’Brien’s second year, Hackenberg, another true freshman, started. That would make it two in the past four years.

This would send a message to all recruits. Theses aren’t necessarily the behind-the-times Nittany Lions, instead they are going to catch up including trying to give all recruits as immediate of impact as possible. This is important because a lot of these kids may choose a school in part of academics, or location, or tradition, or a feeling of “home,” but more importantly they want to to play football. And they want to play it as soon as possible.

2013 was a lackluster season to say the least. Sure we beat two ranked teams in an exciting game against Michigan and a destruction of the spread against Wisconsin, but there were also losses to a Blake Bortles led (and future Fiesta Bowl winning) UCF — a team that not too long ago would have been a cupcake team for us, and our first ever loss to Indiana (and very handily mind you). It was disappointing, but it was a newer team, and with B.O’B, we might have had a chance the next year.

But rumors stirred up as they did the year before about O’Brien leaving. He was getting praise for what he was able to do with nothing (which is a ridiculous assumption because he inherited one of the top programs in college football that in his first year had an arsenal at his disposal and in his second year still had a good amount of returners) as well as keeping the team together (see above), and turning that into two winning seasons. As we all know he left for the Texans, which to me was surprising that he would get hired as an NFL head coach with two slightly-above-average season under his belt. Watching his teams incur a slew of minor missteps in their games also, amounted to their major malfunctions in game and ultimately was a large part of their nine losses in two years (which of course is a lot better than most of the 120 odd teams in FBS).

So quickly, we needed a hot coach, who would most likely stay, and is a great recruiter. Which is where James Franklin came into play. He gave Vanderbilt (far and away the most academically respectable SEC school and historically the worst football school in the SEC) three bowl seasons and their first finish in the Top 25 since Harry S. Truman ran the country. If he could do that at Vandy, then imagine what he could do at a school like Penn State!

That was the train of thought, and for a while it seemed it was plausible. Even with some reduced scholarships, he was able to flip recruits, wrangle a consensus Top 25 class, and he seemed like the player’s coach. The community coach. The coach that wasn’t going to go anywhere and planned for success. A Penn State coach.

Unfortunately, the problem with a new coach and a new staff is that each has their own plan, which usually means that they may tear down any existing infrastructure and rebuild from square one. And that’s what happened.

I feel like I don’t have to sum up the past two years, because it truly irks me thinking about it. Training a pro-style QB to run a west-coast offense under a statistically terrible OC. Having a line that is better at blocking each other than a two-man rush and accepting that their inexperience is an excuse rather than the talent — or coach — maybe just not being that good. Watching a once proud QB who put together Montana-like drives regress back to a freshman ways with poor awareness and getting hurt. Running the wildcat. It just looked like confusion.

*****

That’s why it’s shocking when you have a slew of mediocre seasons, that someway, somehow, Franklin was able to put together a Top 15 class and a Top 20 class after these seasons. This is the main reason I have been relating the recruiting classes along with the football seasons. Usually, how well you do in a season (as well as off-season scandals) directly relates to how many quality recruits you will be able to pick up. Alabama, and most SEC schools, usually finish towards the top for a slew of reasons. Competition, weather, location in regards the recruit’s home, payment — but none are more important than title contentions for that year and how quickly they will be able to play.

What most people forget when they see recruits committing, decommitting, flipping, being indecisive kids (which they are, because they’re only 17 and 18 years old) is that most of them do not have attachments to these schools, or any schools for that matter. They just want to, as I said earlier, play. And more importantly, want to win. So for every high-end recruit a team gets, that’s another player saying, “Based off what I have seen, I believe we can win, and I can help our team win.”

Penn State’s recent recruiting success could be directly related to Shoop’s top defensive schemes, as well as the prevailing charm and history of University Park that we all know and love. However, Franklin, and O’Brien alike, have peaked that new school interest in a bunch of prospects by displaying their true and redshirt freshman on the field. That’s essentially their invitation of, “Look if you come here, you do have a chance to play, even as a freshman.” And from a strategic standpoint, it works for the current players as well because it gives them invaluable experience on the field which bodes well in following years. In short it’s attractive for everyone, as long as the program is willing to rebuild.

But after year two under Franklin, it is starting to seem like a dead-end. After another terribly par season, Franklin has yet to beat a ranked team and has yet to build a mold to filter talent through. This confounding off-season has been the build-up of the last two years. There have been articles a plenty written this past season and offseason of what really is going on with Franklin’s program, so I only want to point out some key factors.

Donovan needed to go. He has had offenses that have finished towards rock bottom dating back to Vanderbilt, there’s no surprise there. Losing Bob Shoop stings, but it was bound to happen. This is a man who wants to be a head coach, so a lateral move is a little disheartening, but makes sense when it’s for a an SEC school that is willing to pay top dollar (which he deserves) for his talents.

The biggest surprise was Coach Hand. A tenacious recruiter but probably not a good coach, as revealed by the amount of sacks per game his line had given up. This could be, as I said based off lack of talent, but also probably not being that great of a coach either. It’s one thing to try and coach unathletic players, but if you have top DI recruits, it’s hard to imagine that being a possibility. His move to Auburn some say is because he wanted to be with his “old friend” Malzahn. But, to stir speculation, when personnel has historically abysmal seasons two years in a row, it’s crazy to think that they would want a coaching change, because it’s just amazing they still have a job at all. This was a key factor that worried me because how bad could the program be that Hand, a coach who on paper should have no guarantees, get hired at Auburn. That blew me away.

Then comes the student transfers. Historically, Penn State doesn’t have many kids who transfer. Even in our worst football times, very few did without being penalized. It’s a program built on the idea of family, honor, and success. However, since the TaxSlayer.com Bowl (the Gator Bowl) a bunch of players have left. Hackenberg, for his health alone, is no surprise, neither is Johnson. It also makes sense if players transfer with a fifth year of eligibility if they haven’t really played or have the opportunity to go to a better school academically (like UCLA). But when Geno Lewis transfers to Oklahoma, in Norman, Oklahoma for his fifth year, well that says something about the current state of the program.

Geno was a starter, and an important factor in a pretty loaded receiver corps. Yes, Oklahoma has title hopes next year, but did he really lack that much confidence in the program that he switched for his final year? Something even other players not to long ago had the opportunity to do, but decided to stick it out (I understand that may be an unfair comparison, but the thought is still generally the same). Then came Troy Reeder, who is switching to Delaware. Allegedly it’s to play with his brother and it’s his father’s alma mater, but he was playing a higher level at PSU and assuredly going to play more in the following seasons (Reeder was only a redshirt sophomore, and UDel being FCS makes him eligible immediately). Then came the announcements of underclassmen Worley, and other 5th years like Lynch, Wooten, and Kiley. Realistically, some of these players may not be detrimental losses, but the transfer effect along with the coaching changes raises a few questions to a recruiting class as well as the fan base:

“Is Penn State going to win?”

“Do I want to be there?”

“How will this affect me?”

“What is going on?”

This could be why there has been a major recruiting conundrum the past few weeks with decommitments and flips. Some of it could be from losing guys who recruited them to Penn State, but others might be uncertain about the future. That’s not to put down what seems to be good hires (at least on paper) in Moorehead, Limegrover, and Pry, who have done all they could possibly do to hop back on the recruiting trail and pick up where their predecessors left off, but it’s not the same as the coaches and staff who recruited you everyday for years. Those are the people kids bond with, who they believe will be their coaches.

*****

So even after turnover, transfers, and another mediocre season, somehow Franklin was able to piece together another top 20 class. And while as a fan base we are starting to grow restless, we are still satisfied because, “We aren’t supposed to be here.

And we shouldn’t — we should be better.

We were so happy that we didn’t have a losing season in 2012, or 2013, or ‘14, or ‘15 that we were fine with anything over .500. We were so happy to play in two bowl games again, that we really don’t look at how easy it is to be one of 80 teams to get a bowl bid. Luckily we are not as jaded of a program as Alabama — where anything short of a national championship is a failure — but we should expect more from a team that has survived its trial by fire. They should have come out stronger than ever, but instead we encourage their limping. It’s not to put anything down on the players, who go out there and put themselves on the line for themselves, our enjoyment, as well as the university’s interests, but we should be a lot harder on the coaching and management. I get that given new university and state regulations that many of us — not just coaches have succumbed to — it has made recruiting a little more difficult with coaching turnover. But it really shouldn’t.

Anyone who believes that the sanctions are still felt really hasn’t seen our program. They haven’t really watched our program. They haven’t been around our program. Penn State football is a team that has survived an almost nuclear holocaust and survived. But for some reason, despite constant talent, despite incredible recruiting classes, despite the greatest facilities, preferences, the town, the stadium, despite everything — somehow we are unable to capitalize on all of this. And that is the real tragedy.

I know it’s impossible to build an empire in one day. I know building a football program takes time. But it’s been seven years, and from the looks of it, this year is questionable as well.

I try to think back to the last time I really believed in a Penn State team, and that would be 2008. We looked unstoppable and save for a last second field goal at Kinnick, we were. That was probably the last time I had pure enjoyment as a fan. That was probably the last time I had high hopes as a fan. I will still root and support our team with unreasonably high expectations from an unrelentless amount of positive propaganda that will be spewed during the off-season, but I know that I shouldn’t expect much. Because as Penn State fans, we have let ourselves succumb to mediocrity.