Midterms: Democrats poised to win governorships in election that will affect redistricting, presidential campaign

Bill Theobald | USA TODAY

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WASHINGTON – Democrats are poised to pick up six to 10 governorships in the midterm election and are hoping to eat into the huge advantage the GOP has in state legislative seats.

"History, data and political tea leaves all indicate that this will be a recovery year for Democrats in the states," wrote Tim Storey and Wendy Underhill of the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Beyond the change that would mean in governance for those states, a shift to more Democrat governors and Democratic-controlled state legislatures would be significant for two reasons that won't even occur for a few years:

• In the 2020 presidential election, candidates will be looking to tap into state political organizations and many believe holding the governorship gives that party's candidate an advantage.

• The 2022 midterm elections will feature new boundaries for House districts based on the 2020 census. In 37 states, the legislature approves the maps and in many of those states the governor can veto the legislation redrawing maps.

Now, the GOP holds a 33-to-16 advantage over Democrats in governorships with Independent Bill Walker seeking re-election in Alaska.

Three states now in GOP hands – Illinois, Michigan and New Mexico – appear likely to elect Democratic governors.

And Democrats have a chance to make history in tight races in Florida and Georgia where, if victorious, they would be their states’ first black governors. Georgia Democrat Stacy Abrams would be the first black woman governor in U.S. history.

The GOP is expected to pick up Alaska where polls show Republican Mike Dunleavy with a comfortable lead over Walker and Democratic candidate Mark Begich.

Another bright spot for the GOP is Maryland, a solid red state, where Republican Gov. Larry Hogan holds a sizable lead over Democratic candidate Ben Jealous.

Here are snapshots of the eight most competitive gubernatorial races:

Florida

Candidates: Republican Ron DeSantis, a former U.S. House member, and Democrat Andrew Gillum, Tallahassee mayor. Republican Gov. Rick Scott was term-limited and is running for the U.S. Senate.

Overview: This faceoff illustrates the polarization of American politics perhaps as much as any in the country. Gillum, who is seeking to become the first black Florida governor, is a progressive in the mold of Bernie Sanders calling for Medicare for all, tighter gun laws, a higher minimum wage, an increase in the corporate tax, and legalizing and taxing marijuana to pay for a massive $1 billion infusion to improve the state's public schools. DeSantis is a close ally of President Donald Trump and promises to keep taxes low, ease regulation on business and stand up for gun rights.

Georgia

Candidates: Democrat Stacey Abrams, former state House minority leader, and Republican Brian Kemp, secretary of state. Republican Gov. Nathan Deal was term-limited.

Overview: Abrams, who is seeking to become to first black woman governor in American history, is looking to build a coalition of black voters and white liberals in Atlanta. She wants to improve education and diversify the state's economy. Kemp is running a Georgia First campaign modeled on the American First strategy employed by President Trump. He calls for smaller government and fewer regulations. Charges that Republicans are trying to suppress black voter turnout have inflamed the contest.

Iowa

Candidates: Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is Iowa's first female governor, having been appointed to the job when Terry Branstad was selected to be ambassador to China. She was lieutenant governor and served in the Iowa state Senate. Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell has never run for public office.

Overview: Hubbell is a member of an iconic Iowa family and headed a retail firm and then the insurance company founded by his great-great-grandfather. He calls for increased funding for education and health care paid for by getting rid of corporate tax breaks. Reynolds emphasizes her common roots as a working parent who completed her college degree later in life. She highlights her work on mental health legislation, science and technology education, and improving trade.

Kansas

Candidates: Democrat Laura Kelly, a state senator, and Republican Kris Kobach, secretary of state. Independent Greg Orman is also a factor in the race. Republican Gov. Sam Brownback resigned as governor in January after he was confirmed as ambassador at large for international religious freedom. Lt. Gov Jeff Colyer was appointed governor, but lost the GOP primary.

Overview: Kelly's campaign emphasizes her work as a mental health advocate and running the Kansas Recreation and Park Association. She opposed Brownback's massive tax cut package and other controversial policies. More than two dozen prominent GOP lawmakers endorsed her. Kobach is known as a hard-liner on immigration who favors tougher identification requirements for voters. He wants to restore Brownback's tax cut plan and has been a close ally of Trump.

Maine

Candidates: Republican businessman Shawn Moody and Democrat Attorney General Janet Mills. Two independents, state treasurer Teresea Hayes and Alan Caron, are also on the ballot and are polling in low single digits. Republican Gov. Paul LePage is term-limited.

Overview: Republican Moody has never held office and touts his independence and the fact that he started a successful business. He says he would cut waste and fraud in government and promote job growth. Mills wants to change the combative tone set under LePage and calls for expanding Medicaid, something approved by voters but which LePage has not implemented.

Nevada

Candidates: Democrat Steve Sisolak is a businessman and chairman of the Clark County Commission, which includes Las Vegas. Republican Adam Laxalt is attorney general and carries one of the most famous names in state politics. His grandfather Paul Laxalt was governor and U.S. senator. Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval is term-limited.

Overview: Sisolak highlights his blue-collar upbringing. He supports increasing public school funding, expanding access to affordable health care and hopes to create more high-paying jobs. Laxalt's campaign emphasizes his military service and his accomplishments as attorney general including taking on opioid-makers. He also favors increasing funding for education.

Ohio

Candidates: The governor's race between Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine and Democrat Richard Cordray, who headed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is a rematch of the 2010 attorney general's race in which DeWine, a former U.S. senator, defeated incumbent Cordray by about 1 percentage point. Republican Gov. John Kasich is term-limited.

Overview: DeWine argues that he has a proven record of public service, including stints a U.S. senator, House member and lieutenant governor. He offers a 12-point plan for dealing with the opioid crisis and wants to improve the state's economy. Cordray's campaign focuses in part on his role at the CFPB, which was created after the 2008 financial crisis. He says under his watch the agency helped more than 30 million Americans recover about $12 billion in refunds and debt relief. He is critical of DeWine for suing to overturn the Affordable Care Act and charges that his opponent is always on the side of the wealthy and big corporations.

Wisconsin

Candidates: Democrat Tony Evers, superintendent of public instruction, is trying to deny a third four-year term to incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who was Milwaukee county executive before taking office as governor in 2011.

Overview: Walker has proposed boosting funding to improve roads in the state and recently called for increasing state funding for local schools, something that Evers had proposed months earlier. Walker also promised to make sure people with pre-existing conditions could get insurance but Evers’ campaign decried that announcement because Walker had approved suing to overturn the Affordable Care Act. The race has become more heated in its final days with a fourth top official in the Walker administration coming out against his re-election. Meanwhile, in response to charges from the Walker campaign, Evers admitted that he submitted a state education department budget request with material lifted from a conservative think tank.

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