As the climate continues to change, some studies suggest that warmer temperatures may help plants bloom earlier and longer. However, that may not be the whole story. An article published in Science details how different plants respond to different indicators of changing seasons, and why that might ultimately shift the balance of some ecosystems.

Phenology, the study of how nature responds to cyclical changes, indicates that non-tropical plants need their environment to fulfill three criteria before they'll start blooming: the degree of winter chilling, photoperiod (the length of the day relative to the night), and temperature. Plant typically handles these cues hierarchically, first registering that the winter chilling period has ended, then taking into account the photoperiod, and then the ambient temperature.

While most plants and trees, including those that typically dominate mature forests, use all three variables, others do not take the photoperiod into account. The other two blooming criteria, chilling and temperature, can happen earlier in the year as the climate warms up. This would allow photoperiod-insensitive plants to bloom sooner, possibly getting the drop on the other flora that have to wait around for days to get sufficiently long before they can start their reproductive cycles and restart their growth cycles. The two classes of plants may end up with different access to resources, including pollinators.

While this may shift the dynamics of photoperiod sensitive and insensitive trees, there are a number of other factors that contribute to plant prosperity that climate doesn't affect, such as mineralization of the soil. Still, it's important to note that, when it comes to plants, there won't be a single, consistent response to climate change.

Science, 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1186473 (About DOIs).