October 23, 2018 - Gillum Leads In Tight Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Boosted By Independents, Women, Non-White Voters

PDF format

Trend Information

Sample and Methodology detail



With big leads among women, black, Hispanic and independent voters, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for Florida governor, has 52 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, the Republican contender, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





This compares to a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead for Mayor Gillum in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.





Today, there are wide racial, gender and partisan gaps:

White voters back DeSantis 54 - 44 percent. The Democrat leads 99 - 1 percent among black voters and 59 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters;

Women back Gillum 59 - 38 percent, as men back DeSantis 54 - 44 percent;

Gillum leads 96 - 4 percent among Democrats and 57 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans back DeSantis 89 - 8 percent.

Only 2 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided and 4 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next 14 days.





"Looking inside the numbers of the governor's race between Mayor Andrew Gillum and former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, we see shining examples of the problems Republicans face this year, not just in Florida, but around the country," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"The GOP has faced strong opposition from women and other anti-Trump voters. These defections have hurt GOP candidates around the country and made it difficult to attract the numbers of independent voters that are often major players in successful campaigns.





"Here in Florida that has translated into an 18-point Gillum lead among independent voters."





"Even more problematic for the GOP and telling about Mayor Gillum's candidacy, is that a liberal Democrat is on the plus side of a 50 - 47 percent split among white women," Brown added.





Gillum has a 50 - 38 percent favorability rating among Florida likely voters, compared to 55 - 31 percent September 26.





DeSantis gets a split 43 - 43 percent favorability rating, compared to a slightly negative 42 - 47 percent favorability rating September 26.





From October 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Gillum 52% 8% 96% 57% 44% 59% 46% 41% DeSantis 46 89 4 39 54 38 50 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 2 1 - 4 2 3 3 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Gillum 37% 50% 44% 99% 59% DeSantis 62 47 54 1 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 DK/NA 2 3 2 - 3 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Gillum 37% 54% 36% 45% DeSantis 61 42 63 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Gillum 7% 9% 94% 98% 51% 62% DeSantis 91 87 6 2 45 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 DK/NA - 2 - - 4 4 AREA............................. North/ Bay Cen- South South Panhdl Area tral West East Gillum 39% 55% 51% 44% 61% DeSantis 57 43 46 54 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 3 1 3 2 2

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Gillum DeSantis Mind made up 95% 95% 95% Might change 4 4 4 DK/NA - - 1

2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 11% 90% 56% 42% 58% 47% 40% Unfavorable 38 75 3 33 47 31 42 48 Hvn't hrd enough 10 13 5 9 10 10 8 11 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 36% 50% 44% 93% 58% Unfavorable 53 38 45 1 28 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 9 6 12 REFUSED 2 2 2 - 1 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 37% 55% 35% 45% Unfavorable 52 35 53 43 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 10 12 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 10% 12% 84% 94% 50% 61% Unfavorable 78 71 5 2 41 26 Hvn't hrd enough 11 15 9 3 7 11 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 2 AREA............................. North/ Bay Cen- South South Panhdl Area tral West East Favorable 39% 53% 49% 42% 60% Unfavorable 44 36 42 47 29 Hvn't hrd enough 15 9 8 11 8 REFUSED 2 2 1 - 3

3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?