The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.

The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.

Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum at the critical time ahead of the 23 June referendum.

David Cameron asked if he is 'finished as PM' after EU referendum

Differential turnout could prove crucial. ORB found that 78 per cent of Leave supporters say they will definitely vote – describing themselves as a “10” on a scale of 0-10, while only 66 per cent of Remain supporters say the same.

The results will heighten fears in the Remain campaign that it is losing ground among Labour supporters, who are seen as critical to securing victory for it. According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave. Only 38 per cent of Tory voters endorse David Cameron’s stance by backing Remain, while 62 per cent support Leave.

Many people seem ready to vote for Brexit even though the poll shows they believe it involves some risk and think the economy is more important than immigration – widely seen as the Leave camp’s trump card.

The one crumb of comfort for the Remain camp is that when people were asked to predict the referendum result, the average figures were 52 per cent for Remain and 48 per cent for Leave. This “wisdom of the crowd” polling proved accurate during Ireland’s referendum on gay marriage last year.

The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit Show all 7 1 /7 The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit 22 May 2015 In his regular column in The Express Nigel Farage utilised the concerns over Putin and the EU to deliver a tongue in cheek conclusion. “With friends like these, who needs enemies?” PA The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit 13 November 2015 UKIP MEP for Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire Mike Hookem, was one of several political figures who took no time to harness the toxic atmosphere just moments after Paris attacks to push an agenda. “Cameron says we’re safer in the EU. Well I’m in the centre of the EU and it doesn’t feel very safe.” Getty Images The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit 19 April 2016 In an article written for The Guardian, Michael Gove attempts to bolster his argument with a highly charged metaphor in which he likens UK remaining in the EU to a hostage situation. “We’re voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car and driven headlong towards deeper EU integration.” Rex The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit 26 April 2016 In a move that is hard to decipher, let alone understand, Mike Hookem stuck it to Obama re-tweeting a UKIP advertisement that utilises a quote from the film: ‘Love Actually’ to dishonour the US stance on the EU. “A friend who bullies us is no longer a friend” The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit 10 May 2016 During a speech in London former work and pensions secretary Ian Duncan Smith said that EU migration would cause an increasing divide between people who benefit from immigration and people who couldn’t not find work because of uncontrolled migration. “The European Union is a ‘force for social injustice’ which backs the ‘haves rather than the have-nots.” EPA The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit 15 May 2016 Cartoon character Boris Johnson made the news again over controversial comments that the EU had the same goal as Hitler in trying to create a political super state. “Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out, and it ends tragically.” “The EU is an attempt to do this by different methods.” PA The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit 16 May 2016 During a tour of the women’s clothing manufacturer David Nieper, Boris had ample time to cook up a new metaphor, arguably eclipsing Gove’s in which he compares the EU to ‘badly designed undergarments.’ “So I just say to all those who prophecy doom and gloom for the British Business, I say their pants are on fire. Let’s say knickers to the pessimists, knickers to all those who talk Britain down.” Getty Images

The ORB survey highlights the stark generational differences over the EU. Seven out of 10 people aged 18-24 back Remain and 30 per cent Leave. Support for Leave rises up the age scale to 64 per cent among those aged 55 and over (figures weighted for turnout). Crucially, just over half (56 per cent) of 18-24 year-olds say they will definitely vote, compared to more than 80 per cent of those aged 55 and over.

Support for EU membership is highest in Scotland, with 60 per cent backing Remain. But a majority of people in every other region of Great Britain favour withdrawal when turnout is taken into account. In London, seen as a strong area for the Remain campaign, only 44 per cent back staying in the EU and 56 per cent favour voting to leave. This is due to the turnout factor. Only 66 per cent of people in London say they will definitely vote, the lowest of any region.

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However, warnings about the economic impact of Brexit appear to have hit home. According to ORB, eight out of 10 people – and of Conservative voters – think leaving the EU would pose some risk, and only 19 per cent think it would pose no risk at all. But a majority of both groups are still prepared to take the risk.

Similarly, 52 per cent of people agree with the statement that the economy is a bigger issue than immigration when considering how to vote in the referendum, while 37 per cent disagree.

Seven out of 10 people think the campaign has been too negative so far, while only 15 per cent disagree. The Leave camp will see this finding as a sign that what it has dubbed Remain’s “Project Fear” has not worked.

Four out of 10 people believe that whatever the referendum result, it will not have much impact on their everyday life, but more people (44 per cent) disagree with this statement.

Polling experts say the result is still too close to call, and that there has been a late swing to the “status quo” option in previous referendums, including the one on Scottish independence in 2014. They also point out that telephone polls consistently give Remain a higher rating than online surveys.



Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?

Weighted for turnout Now April Remain 45 per cent 49 per cent Leave 55 per cent 51 per cent

Headline Figure (not weighted for turnout) Now April Remain 47 per cent 50 per cent Leave 53 per cent 50 per cent

What people think the result will be (average prediction)

Remain 52 per cent Leave 48 per cent

How much of a risk do you think leaving the EU would pose?

A great deal of risk 26 per cent Some risk 55 per cent No risk at all 19 per cent

When considering how to vote, the economy is a bigger issue than immigration

Agree 52 per cent Disagree 37 per cent Don't know 11 per cent

Whether we decide to leave the EU or to remain, the result won't have much impact on my daily life

Agree 40 per cent Disagree 44 per cent Don't know 17 per cent

I feel the campaign so far has been too negative

Agree 69 per cent Disagree 15 per cent Don't know 15 per cent