If your head is spinning over Premier Doug Ford’s plan to chop Toronto city council almost in half, to just 25 councillors, you’re not alone.

The Star plans to investigate the most pressing questions and most dubious claims swirling around Ford’s surprise move. Star reporters will be updating this story over the coming days and weeks.

Last updated Aug. 2, 2018.

How much will it cost the city to redo ward boundaries in the middle of an election?

Ford says cutting council’s size will save the taxpayers $25 million, but Councillor Gord Perks insisted in council this week that the cost to the clerk “of having to set up a second election will eat up all the savings.”

The Star has reached out to the city for a number on how much it will cost, and this fact check will be updated once they get back with response.

We do know that $17.5 million was budgeted for the election, and the clerk’s office was already knee deep in planning.

City clerk Ulli Watkiss described last week what would need to be redone, including numbering new voting subdivisions, recalculating spending limits for candidates, creating a new plan for communicating boundary changes and preparing new preliminary voter’s lists.

Guelph city clerk Stephen O’Brien said it would be very tough to even provide a ballpark figure on how much it will cost Toronto.

But he said his own city budgets about half a million dollars for their municipal election, and if they had to redraw their ward boundaries at this point “a significant portion” of that budget would be affected.

For example, vendors would have to be paid again in full to redo work they’d already done.

Speaking generally, he said, “When you make significant changes to the structure, like is being proposed, some of those costs may have to be incurred in whole again.”

Do more than half of Torontonians support Ford’s plan to reduce the size of council?

In the legislature on Aug. 2, Ford said he read a “poll” in the Star that “showed 68 per cent of the people are in favour of reducing the size and cost of government.”

Ford appears to be referring to a tweet from a Toronto Sun columnist, who on July 31 referenced results at that time from a reader survey on the Star’s website. His tweet said that there was 68.77 per cent (3,711 votes) support for cutting the size of council, according to that survey.

The Star surveys readers online to get their feedback and engage them in the stories. These surveys are not random, nor are they scientific, unlike those done by polling companies that independently gauge public opinion. Anyone can take the survey regardless of whether they live in or outside Toronto. The Star’s surveys also aren’t weighted to be reflective of the makeup of Toronto, meaning they don’t produce results that consider the age or other variables.

Looking at the reader surveys the Star has posted about Ford’s plan to cut council, there have been widely varying results.

The survey with the most participation, nearly 18,000 responses as of Aug. 2, was posted in a July 26 article, and found 46 per cent of votes were against cutting the size of council while 43 per cent were for it. Another embedded in a July 31 opinion piece supporting the cuts, which it appears the tweet referenced, saw 72 per cent of votes for the cut (out of more than 6,900 total votes). Another posted the same day in an opinion piece against the cuts saw 54 per cent of votes opposed the plan (out of more than 1,100 total votes).

In total, the Star has posted five surveys on the topic of cutting the size of council since news of Ford’s plan broke. About 17,500 votes in total have been for the cuts, and nearly 15,000 have been against them — but, again, the Star’s surveys are not meant to be scientific.

A recent scientific poll on the question found a plurality of Torontonians oppose Ford’s plan: Forum Research conducted an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,328 randomly selected Toronto voters on July 27. It found 47 per cent of those surveyed were “strongly” or “somewhat” opposed to the reduction in council’s size and 35 per cent were “strongly” or “somewhat” in favour. Another 19 per cent were indifferent or didn’t know. The results are considered accurate plus or minus 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20 (a standard measure). The methodology for the survey notes: “Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.”

Did the PCs win more votes than the NDP in Toronto?

On Monday, July 30, Ford said in the legislature that his PC party “ended up getting 88,646 more votes than the NDP, all combined, in the city of Toronto” in the election. That’s not true.

The official results of the June election, posted by Elections Ontario for the 25 Toronto ridings, when tallied, show Ford was way off. The NDP actually received 40,534 more votes than the PC party. In total, irrespective of which party won the seat, the NDP received 400,443 votes in those 25 wards and the PC party got 359,909.

What would other Ontario cities look like Toronto’s new councillor-to-citizen ratio?

If each Ontario city or town had an equal number of municipal, provincial and federal representatives, as Ford says is best for Toronto, many would have a single councillor.

These places include Waterloo, Guelph, Milton, Newmarket and Oshawa, all of which have one MP and MPP and populations exceeding 100,000. Currently, these municipalities have a total of 47 councillors plus mayors.

Larger cities would see dramatic cuts to their city councils as well. Ottawa, with nearly one million residents, would see its 23 council seats reduced to eight. Hamilton’s half a million residents would be represented by five councillors, down from 15.

Further north, Muskoka and Parry Sound would have to share one councillor.

Using the strict math of one councillor per MPP, the 38 municipalities in the Algoma-Manitoulin riding’s 109,575 square kilometres would have a single municipal representative.

Do the Toronto councillors who support Ford’s plan represent ‘close to two million people?’

No.

In Question Period on Monday, July 30, Ford made the claim that 12 Toronto councillors, representing “close to two million people,” were in support of his plan. He appears to have been be referring to a recent new conference in which 11 councillors came out in support of his cuts.

According to 2016 census data, those 11 councillors represent a total of 661,510 constituents. The average Toronto ward has about 60,000 people, meaning a 12th councillor would likely bring the total to about 720,000 people.

Toronto’s population is more than 2.7 million, also according to the latest census data. That means the portion of the city represented by the city’s other 32 councillors is about two million people.

Why are there more municipal wards than federal and provincial ridings in Toronto?

Some make the argument that more councillors, and smaller wards, equals better access to government — the logic being that councillors are able to pay more attention to their constituents and are able to get problems solved more easily.

“Municipalities are not the same kind of government as federal and provincial governments,” says Alexandra Flynn, an assistant professor of human geography and city studies at the University of Toronto Scarborough.

“Because we call our councillor when we have a pothole.”

How does Toronto’s council compare to other cities?

Ford used Los Angeles, where there are 15 councillors for almost 4 million people, as an example of a place where city government is small and streamlined.

But the Southern California city also has almost 100 neighbourhood councils with 1,800 elected board members serving on them, according to their website.

The councils, created in the late ’90s to improve access to local government, act as grassroots advisory bodies. They’re made up of people who live, work and own property in the area, who are not city councillors.

Toronto also has community councils, but they are very different entities — groupings of wards and made up of councillors in those wards.

Under Ford’s proposed cuts, the ratio would be one councillor per 109,263 people in Toronto, much less representation from local government per individual than in L.A., taking neighbourhood councils into account.

By comparison, Chicago, a city of 2.719 million according to 2014 U.S. census figures, has 50 aldermen — a ratio of one alderman per 54,380 people.

Ottawa has 23 councillors, but a ratio of one councillor per 38,408 people, according to a 2014 report on Toronto’s ward boundary review.

How did we get to 47 councillors?

Ford said repeatedly during his Thursday announcement that no one has ever told him they want more politicians.

But, during extensive consultations for the ward boundary review the city did to get to the 47-ward plan, people did say they wanted to have more access to their councillors, said U of T’s Flynn.

The city undertook the ward boundary review in 2014 to determine if all residents were being fairly represented. It took into account a Supreme Court decision that said all votes should have equal weight; meaning the vote from a person living in downtown Toronto should have as much influence as a vote from a person living in Scarborough.

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The logic behind the 47-ward model was to fix a ward-to-population imbalance, which was only going to get worse with rapid downtown growth.

In November 2016, council voted 28-to-13 to approve consultant recommendations on the new ward boundaries, adding three wards downtown while taking one away there, and adding one in Willowdale.

This structure was supposed to keep the councillor-to-person ratio at around one per 60,000.

During this process, the “idea of matching the federal electoral districts was considered and rejected,” Flynn said, because it didn’t ensure equal representation.

“It really comes down to how many people does that councillor represent and are the number of people that the councillor is representing roughly equal across the city,” she said.

Under the 25-wards model, looking at projected population for 2026 in the ward boundary review report, downtown wards Toronto Centre and Spadina-Fort York, and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would have the biggest populations — with councillors there representing more than 150,000 people.

For example, Spadina Fort-York would have 153,846 people compared to Don Valley East with 98,273.

Would suburban voters really be under-represented under the 47-councillor plan?

Yes, but not for long.

Jim Karygiannis (Ward 39 Scarborough-Agincourt) told 680 News he supports Ford’s proposal because it will fix the “unequal balance” for the suburbs.

In the ward boundary review process, the consultants hired by the city looked at the projected population for 2026, rather than past census data, Flynn said.

The 47-ward model would have added councillors downtown, as that population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the suburbs.

“In the short term ... there will be fewer people downtown but more people in the suburbs so it will still be unequal but because of the projected population it will not be unequal for long,” said Flynn.

How much will the seat reduction save?

Reducing the size of Toronto city council is estimated to save Toronto taxpayers $25.5 million over four years, the premier’s office said in a statement. That breaks down to a savings of about $6.3 million a year.

Last year, the salaries and expenses for Toronto’s city councillors totalled $17,349,526. That averages out to $394,307 per councillor.

There will be 25 remaining city council positions. Using the 2017 numbers, the Star can project that the total remuneration and expenses would amount to $9,857,685 a year for the new city council.

That’s a savings of $7,491,841 a year — or $4.61 for every city of Toronto resident 15 or older.

What can that kind of savings buy?

$9.4 million: cost of land purchased for the George Street Revitalization, according to the City of Toronto website.

$8.511 million: budget for the Toronto Public Library renovating and expanding Wychwood Branch, according to the 2018 preliminary operating budget.

$6.5 million: cost of the Ravens Roost project at the Toronto Zoo, according to the 2018 — 2027 Preliminary Capital Budget and Plan.

$10.32 million: cost of the King-Liberty Pedestrian and Cycling bridge, according to the 2018 Capital Budget for Transportation Services.

$6.9 million: investment in 215 affordable rental homes in the East Bayfront district, according to a recent city council decision.

$6 million: cost of 120 power stretchers for Toronto paramedics, according to the 2018 Capital Budget for Toronto Paramedic Services.

$7.4 million: cost of increased enforcement and surveillance, including 40 new CCTV cameras, as part of the city’s plan to combat gun violence.

What do the changes mean for the Oct. 22 election?

“They’re going to have to do a lot of adjustments with very little time,” said Duff Conacher, co-founder of Democracy Watch.

At city council on Friday, the city clerk flagged potential difficulties with advance voting and ballot counting. “I’m not surprised at all that they would be projecting problems with meeting deadlines to actually implement this fully,” Conacher said.

He said the rejigging of city council won’t “necessarily” increase the cost of the election, “but it’s going to make the clerk’s office work double overtime for the next three months to try to adjust to this.”

Polling station locations will have to be reconsidered, Conacher said. “You’re setting up this whole new system of boundaries, and that means a whole new system for identification of each voter and making sure they’re voting at the right polling station.”

Greg Albo, a professor at York University’s politics department, said there will be little to no time for public consultation on the legislation to cut the number of seats.

“It’s Ford and a range of unelected people around his office that are determining this,” Albo said.

The 2014 municipal election, which saw 991,754 votes cast in 44 wards, cost $8.39 million. That was a 21 per cent increase in cost from the 2010 municipal election, due to an expanded advance vote model, increase in the number of voting locations and additional staffing requirements.

What could the change mean for council after the election?

“If they’re going to maintain the same service levels, then you’re going to have to double the staff of each councillor,” Conacher said. “If you’re doubling the staff of each councillor, then those costs will not be reduced.”

Greg Albo, professor at York University’s politics department, agreed that staff may need to be expanded if the number of city councillors is reduced.

“At the level of representation we have, which is already on the low end, staff can barely handle the issues related to constituency issues: problems with the neighbour, problems with parking, problems getting Ontario hydro to respond, all those things.”

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