by Aaron Schatz

The Kansas City Chiefs remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, but things have condensed heavily after an upset-filled Week 6. The fact that there are only two 5-1 teams and no 6-0 teams is a hint that the league has some heavy parity this year, and our ratings certainly don't disagree.

At least the Chiefs are still above 30% DVOA after their loss to the Steelers... thanks in large part to opponent adjustments. The Chiefs have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the league so far. In some years, it seems like the schedule strength ratings are just reflecting which teams are good in bad -- in other words, that bad teams have low DVOA because they've played good teams, and vice versa. That's very much not the case in 2017, where six of the current top 10 in DVOA have played top-10 schedules so far while the easiest schedules in the league so far belong to the No. 31 Indianapolis Colts and the No. 28 New York Jets.

2011 was the only season in DVOA history where no team managed to rate above 30% after Week 6. The top team that year was 5-1 San Francisco at only 25.8%. Four other seasons had a No. 1 team after Week 6 lower than the current Kansas City Chiefs. You may recognize some similarities between these seasons and the current one, particularly an "anyone can win, no clear favorite" atmosphere caused by major injuries:

In 2000, the top team after Week 6 was the 5-1 Miami Dolphins at 31.1%.

In 2010, the top team after Week 6 was the 4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers at 30.7%.

In 1989, the top team after Week 6 was the 4-2 Chicago Bears at 30.6%.

In 2008, probably the most "who the hell knows" parity year of the last two decades, the top team after Week 6 was the 3-3 (!) Philadelphia Eagles at 30.4%.

The strong parity of 2017 is even clearer if we look at No. 2 Philadelphia compared to other teams ranked No. 2 after Week 6. With the Eagles at 24.5% and the Steelers at 24.3%, we only have one team right now above 25%. There's only been one other season like that: 2011, when the No. 2 team after Week 6 was the 4-1 Ravens at 22.5%.

The Steelers are also one of the four weakest No. 3 teams ever. The only years where the No. 3 team after Week 6 was lower than the current Seelers are 1989 (5-1 Rams at 21.1%), 2011 (6-0 Packers at 22.0%), and, you might be surprised to learn, last year (the 4-2 Bills at 22.6%; boy, did that not last).

Parity is not quite as strong at the bottom of the league, where the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts are way back behind everyone else. However, the parity is pretty strong once we get above those two teams, starting with the fact that the team currently ranked No. 30 has a winning record: 3-2 Miami with -28.3% DVOA. There are also 3-3 teams ranked 27th (Arizona) and 28th (New York Jets).

Most of the time, the team ranked third from the bottom after Week 6 has a much worse rating than the Dolphins. There are only four exceptions, and interestingly, three of them were very recent:

In 1990, the No. 26 team (in a 28-team league) after Week 6 was the 2-3 Indianapolis Colts at -27.3%

In 2013, the No. 30 team after Week 6 was the 1-4 Washington Redskins at -26.9%.

In 2015, the No. 30 team after Week 6 was the 2-4 Chicago Bears at -25.7%.

In 2016, just like this year, the No. 30 team after Week 6 had a winning record despite playing poorly in the first month and a half: the 4-2 Houston Texans at -23.2%.

Another symbol of this year's parity is a team that is 0-6 despite only getting outscored by 33 points. San Francisco ranks No. 26 in DVOA, and its points scored and allowed numbers would usually point to a 2-4 team rather than a winless squad. Are they the best 0-6 team in DVOA history? Nope, but they're near the top. (And once again I have to apologize that we have yet to run the "DVOA as of Week X" for 1986-1988, so these lists of past teams only go back to 1989.)

Best 0-6 Teams by DVOA, 1989-2017 Year Team DVOA Rank Final

W-L Final

DVOA Final

Rank Y+1

W-L Y+1

DVOA Y+1

Rank 2013 TB -12.9% 24 4-12 -5.1% 19 2-14 -28.3% 30 2007 MIA -14.7% 22 1-15 -21.4% 27 11-5 6.2% 14 1997 IND -18.4% 24 3-13 -19.6% 26 3-13 -17.2% 26 2001 DET -20.1% 26 2-14 -22.5% 29 3-13 -34.5% 30 2017 SF -21.0% 26 -- -- -- -- -- -- 2014 OAK -22.3% 29 3-13 -27.4% 29 7-9 0.1% 14 2011 MIA -22.8% 28 6-10 -1.3% 18 7-9 -7.2% 21 1991 CIN -23.2% 25 3-13 -24.3% 24 5-11 -19.4% 24 2010 BUF -26.6% 30 4-12 -21.3% 29 6-10 -9.7% 23 2016 CLE -27.9% 31 1-15 -30.4% 31 Oh no, the pain. The PAIN. 1994 CIN -28.6% 26 3-13 -25.7% 27 7-9 -7.0% 20 1998 CAR -28.7% 27 4-12 -13.1% 22 8-8 1.5% 19 2011 IND -29.6% 30 2-14 -32.8% 31 11-5 -16.0% 25

The teams near the top of the list didn't quite match San Francisco's record of five straight losses by a field goal or less, but they did lose a lot of close games. The 2013 Buccaneers, 2007 Dolphins, and 1997 Colts each lost three of their first six games by a field goal or less. I wish I could give 49ers some optimism by explaining that every one of these teams improved the following year, but that's not quite the case. Some of the teams played better, some didn't, and then you have the crazy case of the 2011 Colts, whose record in close games completely reversed when Andrew Luck showed up in 2012.

The parity this season does not extend to our offensive ratings. Kansas City and New England have offensive DVOA similar to what the best offenses usually have at this point, and Indianapolis and Cleveland resemble the typical worst offenses. But the parity does extend to the defensive ratings. For the second straight week, the Jacksonville Jaguars are sitting on top of the defensive DVOA ratings. But at -20.7% DVOA, the Jaguars have the lowest-rated No. 1 defense in DVOA history. (The previous record-holder was also Jacksonville, back in 1999.) The parity isn't quite as extreme on the other end, where the Patriots are still dead last in defensive DVOA. However, the Patriots have moved a lot closer to the league over the last two weeks, going from 30.9% defensive DVOA through Week 4 to 21.1% defensive DVOA through Week 6. Part of what's going on here is better play -- despite the close final score, the win over the Jets this week was New England's top single-game DVOA of the year -- and part of what's going on is the gradual increase in opponent adjustments. The Patriots defense looks even worse than it really has been because the Patriots have played the second-toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.

[ad placeholder 3]

And who has played the toughest schedule of opposing offenses? The Kansas City Chiefs, who despite facing so many strong offenses are 5-1 and No. 1 in DVOA. As we keep mentioning, this has been a very strange season so far.

Two other notes:

It's a bit of a shock to see the Baltimore Ravens climb from 18th to 12th after losing to a bad Chicago team. Some of the surprise comes from fumble recoveries. This was the second game this year where Chicago had an overtime win over an AFC North team in part thanks to great fumble recovery luck. The Bears fumbled four times, but recovered two of those; the Ravens fumbled only once, but the Bears recovered that one too. The other driver of Baltimore's DVOA rise is special teams, because the Ravens had touchdowns on both a kickoff and a punt. As a result, the Ravens zoom up from No. 18 to No. 1 in special teams. That seems a bit extreme. The value of long special teams returns are not tapered down in the same way that DVOA treats long passes and runs, and that's probably something I will need to look at when I next get some offseason time to improve the special teams ratings method.

For DAVE, we changed the Green Bay projection to incorporate Brett Hundley instead of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The DAVE used in the playoff odds simulation adjusts things even further. Combine this with a divisional loss to Minnesota, and our odds of Green Bay making the postseason have dropped over 40 percentage points, from 69.6 percent to just 28.0 percent.

* * * * *

Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 18. This year, our content for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles comes monthly, while our content for Madden Mobile comes weekly. Come back to each Tuesday's DVOA commentary article for a list of players who stood out during the previous weekend's games. Those players will get special Madden Mobile items branded as "Powerline, powered by Football Outsiders," beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 6 are:

RG David DeCastro, PIT (HERO): Pulled and paved the way for Le'Veon Bell to gain 179 yards on 32 carries.

Pulled and paved the way for Le'Veon Bell to gain 179 yards on 32 carries. RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG: Led Week 6 RB with 48 DYAR (21 carries for 117 yards vs. league's No. 1 run defense).

Led Week 6 RB with 48 DYAR (21 carries for 117 yards vs. league's No. 1 run defense). LT D.J. Humphries, ARI: Helped lead Arizona RB to 7 left-side carries for 56 yards.

Helped lead Arizona RB to 7 left-side carries for 56 yards. DE Alex Okafor, NO: End zone sack and forced fumble leading to touchdown.

End zone sack and forced fumble leading to touchdown. S Harrison Smith, MIN: Sack, interception, and PD, all on third downs.

* * * * *

All stats pages should now be updated through Week 6, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium DVOA database.

* * * * *

[ad placeholder 4]

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 60 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 19 percent of DAVE for teams that have played six games and 27 percent of DAVE for teams that have played five games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 KC 31.8% 1 25.7% 1 5-1 32.4% 1 6.8% 21 6.3% 4 2 PHI 24.5% 5 20.7% 3 5-1 12.1% 5 -5.2% 14 7.2% 3 3 PIT 24.3% 4 22.8% 2 4-2 11.8% 6 -15.4% 4 -2.9% 23 4 LARM 21.6% 7 17.9% 4 4-2 5.7% 13 -9.8% 9 6.0% 7 5 HOU 18.2% 6 12.7% 7 3-3 7.3% 12 -12.8% 6 -1.8% 21 6 WAS 18.1% 2 13.5% 6 3-2 10.6% 8 -9.5% 10 -1.9% 22 7 NO 18.1% 9 11.4% 8 3-2 18.3% 3 -3.9% 15 -4.2% 25 8 MIN 17.5% 14 13.8% 5 4-2 10.2% 9 -8.3% 11 -1.0% 20 9 BUF 12.4% 10 5.9% 15 3-2 -7.9% 22 -16.1% 2 4.3% 8 10 JAC 12.2% 3 8.1% 13 3-3 2.1% 16 -20.7% 1 -10.6% 31 11 DET 11.7% 8 9.3% 11 3-3 -10.1% 24 -12.4% 7 9.3% 2 12 BAL 10.6% 18 8.6% 12 3-3 -13.7% 26 -14.4% 5 9.9% 1 13 SEA 9.1% 12 11.3% 9 3-2 0.3% 18 -7.6% 12 1.2% 17 14 CIN 8.3% 15 6.8% 14 2-3 -9.5% 23 -15.8% 3 2.0% 16 15 NE 7.4% 21 11.3% 10 4-2 26.1% 2 21.1% 32 2.4% 14 16 CAR 7.2% 17 5.7% 16 4-2 -1.3% 20 -6.1% 13 2.5% 13 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 ATL 6.0% 13 5.1% 17 3-2 15.8% 4 12.4% 27 2.5% 12 18 GB 3.8% 11 2.5% 18 4-2 4.0% 14 1.3% 18 1.1% 18 19 TEN 0.5% 20 -0.4% 20 3-3 8.9% 11 11.4% 26 3.0% 11 20 DEN -0.3% 16 -2.3% 21 3-2 -1.2% 19 -11.3% 8 -10.5% 30 21 DAL -2.5% 23 1.7% 19 2-3 9.4% 10 15.9% 30 4.0% 9 22 LACH -8.0% 24 -7.0% 23 2-4 3.7% 15 0.8% 17 -10.8% 32 23 OAK -8.0% 22 -5.5% 22 2-4 1.2% 17 15.2% 28 6.0% 6 24 TB -9.7% 19 -8.6% 24 2-3 10.6% 7 17.0% 31 -3.4% 24 25 NYG -16.8% 26 -12.5% 25 1-5 -2.6% 21 7.2% 22 -6.9% 26 26 SF -21.0% 27 -19.5% 27 0-6 -18.0% 28 9.3% 24 6.2% 5 27 ARI -21.6% 30 -18.3% 26 3-3 -10.2% 25 2.1% 19 -9.3% 28 28 NYJ -21.7% 25 -20.6% 28 3-3 -14.9% 27 8.9% 23 2.1% 15 29 CHI -26.8% 28 -22.8% 30 2-4 -20.0% 29 -2.8% 16 -9.6% 29 30 MIA -28.3% 29 -22.7% 29 3-2 -22.7% 30 6.7% 20 1.0% 19 31 IND -41.9% 31 -36.4% 31 2-4 -29.6% 32 15.6% 29 3.3% 10 32 CLE -47.8% 32 -42.1% 32 0-6 -29.1% 31 10.8% 25 -7.9% 27

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).