Poll suggests protest vote – or protest non-vote – in local elections last week would return to Labour in general election

A new Westminster poll has just been published giving Labour a massive 9% lead over the Tories.

The Panelbase poll, which includes the new Brexit and Change UK parties, puts Labour well ahead of any competitors, also supports the conclusions of Royal Statistical Society council member Simon Briscoe that the LibDem ‘surge’ in last week’s local elections was largely illusory, an effect of depressed turnout by voters for other parties.

The poll’s results in full:

LAB: 36% (-4)

CON: 27% (-13)

BXP: 13% (+13)

LDM: 8% (=)

UKIP 5% (=)

CHUK 4% (+4)

GRN: 3% (=)

The new poll means that Labour has been ahead in all the latest polls, including the one published by YouGov, a polling company with a reputation for understating Labour’s support – and gives Labour an average lead across polls of 5.8%:

• Panelbase (+9%)

• BMG (+4%)

• Delta (+5%)

• Survation (+4%)

• Kantar (+4%)

• Hanbury (+9%)

• Opinium (+7%)

• ComRes (+10%)

• YouGov (+3%)

• ORB (+3%)

The Tories’ average polling, meanwhile, has falled 14% in just two months.

SKWAWKBOX view:

The media desperately attempted to spin last week’s results as equivalent for both Labour and the Tories, in spite of enormous Tory losses.



Labour’s strength in Westminster voting intention persists – but the warning of last week’s results – that the party must leave behind any notion of a new referendum – must not be ignored.

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