MILES SANDERS -- RB, PENN STATE

Joe Hermitt | jhermitt@pennlive.com

Physical Measurables & Athletic Profile

Miles Sanders profiles as one of the few three-down backs in the 2019 class. At 211 pounds and just under 5'11, his body-type is pretty much exactly that of the average RB drafted since 2007 (70.8 inches and 213.9 pounds). That's not to say he's the ideal size (the Gurleys and Barkleys and Bells are mostly 6 foot, 225-pound guys), but his body is not at all a concern for his potential to handle a lead back workload in the NFL (RBs with pounds per inch ratios between 3.00 and 3.05 carry the ball an average of 21.8 times more per 16 games than the average drafted RB -- Sanders is just below that mark at 2.99, the same ratio as guys like Matt Forte and Joe Mixon).





Athletically, Sanders tested very well at the Combine, showing at least 75th-percentile ability in straight-line speed, explosiveness, and agility. I expected him to test well in the agility drills, but such a complete athletic profile solidifies Sanders as a top-5 RB in this class, and likely vaults him into the top 3. His Power Score, (based on size, lower body explosiveness, and upper body strength) is a 51st-percentile mark right around the range of guys like Mark Ingram, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Melvin Gordon, and indicates that Sanders is well suited for a lead back role.

Production Profile

After being the top-ranked high school RB in the country in the class of 2016, it took Miles Sanders until his age-21 season to reach age-adjusted production thresholds for success in the NFL (based on players with at least one top-24 PPR season):









Miles Sanders is a complete back with the college receiving production to show for it. The 42.3 Satellite Score he posted in 2018 is an 81st-percentile figure and puts him in the range of past prospects and good NFL receiving backs like TJ Yeldon, Javorius Allen, and Duke Johnson, and ahead of guys like Chris Thompson and Reggie Bush. It's not an elite score, but it's pretty indicative of a player whose contributions in the passing attack will be a big part of his game at the NFL level. RBs with Satellite Scores between 40.0 and 45.0 have targets make up an average of 35.1% of their total opportunities, much higher than the 23.2% target/opportunity rate that is the average for all RBs drafted since 2007. Even during his sophomore year, when his role was just to give Saquon a breather every once in a while, he was involved enough in the passing attack to post a Satellite Score in the 98th percentile. That Sanders' box of tools includes those kinds of receiving chops is great news for his prospects as an NFL contributor: even if he doesn't catch on as a lead back, he still has the all-purpose ability to fill a TJ Yeldon or (healthy) CJ Prosise-type role on a team.





*note: target data from 2016 is not available (as far as I know -- I'd love to see it if it is) and is therefore estimated using 2016 reception total and 2017-18 catch rates

Rushing Efficiency

By the numbers, Miles Sanders is one of the best pure runners in this class. There's a decent argument for him being the best -- while not the top performer in any one category, he's the only Power Five conference player in the class who performed "in the green" in all four of our rushing efficiency metrics. He had positive rates in Chunk Rate Over Team and Breakaway Rate Over Team (which measure a player's rate of 10+ and 20+ yard runs, respectively, against the rest of his team's rate) of 0.54% and 0.23%, respectively, and was also in the better half of the class in Loss Rate at 8.25%. His most impressive showing was in True YPC (which discounts long runs to a maximum of 10 yards), posting the 5th-highest figure in the class at 4.46.





data from cfbstats.com and expandtheboxscore.com





Sanders didn't really smash any of these metrics, but the least you can say about him is he was picking up what was blocked and then outperforming his teammates beyond the first level of defenses. He has a shifty running style, but he's not a dancer that's going to get caught trying to do too much in the backfield, and it's encouraging that he's able to extend runs into the secondary at a good rate without needing to do so in order to be productive. With efficiency numbers to match his athletic testing, Sanders should be a quality, well-rounded runner in the NFL.





Similarity Scores & Overall Outlook

Miles Sanders' performance at the Combine creates close matches to several excellent NFL backs:











All three of those players also show up in Sanders' closest Path to Success comps, which compares him to every RB in the database with at least one RB2-level season in Half PPR to show which successful players his profile most resembles. It's encouraging for his potential NFL role that so many good receiving backs appear here. The player there that Sanders might most resemble is Melvin Gordon; while Gordon's college receiving production produced just a 17th-percentile Satellite Score (compared to Sanders' 81st-percentile mark), he has been a quality receiver in the NFL, with targets making up 21.3% of his total opportunities. RBs with that sort of carry/target split post an average Satellite Score of 28.1 as prospects, and if Gordon's Score coming out retroactively matched his NFL receiving role, he'd be an 86.2% overall match to Sanders.



Overall, Miles Sanders has very few holes in his profile as a prospect. He has good size, good receiving ability, and good athleticism. Because he boasts an every-down skillset, he has a very high floor as a TJ Yeldon-level spot starter and receiving back. The only indication that he wouldn't be more than that is his lack of dominant college production, but if an NFL team looks past that and takes him early in the draft, then his prospects for early-career opportunity will be good enough that his Dominator Rating won't matter. I believe his strong Combine means he'll likely be taken around the 3rd round of the NFL Draft, and if that happens I have no problems projecting Sanders for RB1-quality seasons in his career. From an eye-test perspective, he looks a lot like former New York Giant and close 3-Down Profile match Ahmad Bradshaw, and while I don't know that he's quite the player that comps like Joe Mixon, Marshawn Lynch, and Melvin Gordon are, I think he's on a similar level as a prospect to recent runners like Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack. With the collective implosion the rest of the 2019 RB class had at the Combine, Sanders is a borderline top-3 back for me. I'm comfortable taking him in the mid-late first round of a rookie draft and, depending on landing spots and Devine Ozigbo and Josh Jacobs' pro day results, he might be the first RB I'd take.



Thanks so much for reading! If you enjoy the content, please consider subscribing at the top of the page, and find me on Twitter @noahmoreparties. Combining athleticism and body type in the Physical comps list, Pro Bowl runners Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, and Marshawn Lynch are all strong matches to Sanders (Brandon Jackson, Sanders' strongest Physical match, himself posted an RB2-level fantasy season during his time in Green Bay).All three of those players also show up in Sanders' closest Path to Success comps, which compares him to every RB in the database with at least one RB2-level season in Half PPR to show which successful players his profile most resembles. It's encouraging for his potential NFL role that so many good receiving backs appear here. The player there that Sanders might most resemble is Melvin Gordon; while Gordon's college receiving production produced just a 17th-percentile Satellite Score (compared to Sanders' 81st-percentile mark), he has been a quality receiver in the NFL, with targets making up 21.3% of his total opportunities. RBs with that sort of carry/target split post an average Satellite Score of 28.1 as prospects, and if Gordon's Score coming out retroactively matched his NFL receiving role, he'd be an 86.2% overall match to Sanders.Overall, Miles Sanders has very few holes in his profile as a prospect. He has good size, good receiving ability, and good athleticism. Because he boasts an every-down skillset, he has a very high floor as a TJ Yeldon-level spot starter and receiving back. The only indication that he wouldn't be more than that is his lack of dominant college production, but if an NFL team looks past that and takes him early in the draft, then his prospects for early-career opportunity will be good enough that his Dominator Rating won't matter. I believe his strong Combine means he'll likely be taken around the 3rd round of the NFL Draft, and if that happens I have no problems projecting Sanders for RB1-quality seasons in his career. From an eye-test perspective, he looks a lot like former New York Giant and close 3-Down Profile match Ahmad Bradshaw, and while I don't know that he's quite the player that comps like Joe Mixon, Marshawn Lynch, and Melvin Gordon are, I think he's on a similar level as a prospect to recent runners like Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack. With the collective implosion the rest of the 2019 RB class had at the Combine, Sanders is a borderline top-3 back for me. I'm comfortable taking him in the mid-late first round of a rookie draft and, depending on landing spots and Devine Ozigbo and Josh Jacobs' pro day results, he might be the first RB I'd take.

Playing behind Saquon Barkley will do that. The important thing is that Sanders made the most of his opportunity when he got it, rushing for 1274 yards in the Big Ten as a junior last year. The 22.0% Dominator Rating he posted is not particularly impressive, but even Barkley's final season Rating of 32.2% isn't much higher than the 10-year average for drafted RBs (28.2%). There are other things going on in that Penn State offense. That's not to say that a relatively low Dominator Rating is a plus on Sanders' profile -- it just doesn't mean he's a bad player. Alvin Kamara, Ronnie Brown, Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Chris Carson, and Devonta Freeman are recent examples of guys with similarly low Dominator Ratings who went on to have success in the league. More important than Dominator Rating to me is proof of an NFL skillset, and Sanders has that.