Hardliners in Iran have been dealt a humiliating blow after reformist-backed candidates in Friday’s hard-fought elections appeared on course for a sweeping victory in Tehran, with a combination of moderates and independents sympathetic to President Hassan Rouhani leading in provinces.

A coalition of candidates supported by the reformists, dubbed “the list of hope”, is likely to take all of the capital’s 30 parliamentary seats, according to the latest tally released by the interior ministry, in surprising results seen as a strong vote of confidence in Rouhani’s moderate agenda. Mohammad Reza Aref, a committed reformist who has a degree from Stanford University in the US, is at the top of the list.

Preliminary results for the Assembly of Experts, which is responsible for appointing the next supreme leader, showed Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a key Rouhani ally, leading the race. Elections to the assembly are usually a lacklustre event but have attracted huge attention this time because of the age of the current leader, 76-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Khamenei and Rafsanjani, a prominent pragmatist who was not allowed to run for president in 2013, have been at odds in recent years.

هنرمندانه با #رای خود فضای جدیدی خلق کردید. دربرابر شما ملت بزرگ که افتخار تاریخ ایران زمین هستيد به احترام می‌ايستم pic.twitter.com/g9HnF0bs23 — حسن روحانی (@Rouhani_ir) February 28, 2016

Results may not be finalised until Tuesday but if they tally with the initial figures there will be a palpable change in the Iranian political landscape with moderates dominating the scene and hardliners being pushed back to the fringes. Strong gains by supporters of Rouhani could help promote greater opening to the west by Iran and limit political advances by conservatives at home – and secure him a second term in office next year.

As many as 20 women are expected to win parliamentary seats, a record for Iran. Among them is the reformist candidate Parvaneh Salahshori, who said in a recent foreign media interview that women should have a choice to wear the hijab. The issue is a taboo subject in the Islamic Republic.

Although none of the competing factions would win a majority in the 290-seat majlis (parliament), a combination of reformist-backed candidates, including some moderate conservatives and independents allied with Rouhani, are expected to outnumber conservatives.

Rouhani said on Twitter that he was holding his head high, adding that the big turnout had created “a new atmosphere” in the country.

A Twitter account believed to be run by Rafsanjani’s office quoted him as saying that no one could resist the will of the people. “Those not favoured by the people should leave,” it said.

Rafsanjani was later quoted by the state IRNA news agency as calling for national unity. “The competition is over and the phase of unity and cooperation has arrived,” he said. “The time after elections is the time for hard work to build the country.”

The reformists have the upper hand not because they have more candidates entering the parliament – many were disqualified from running – but because of alliances with successful candidates from other camps.

Among those backed by reformists is Ali Motahari, who is culturally conservative but politically allied with moderates. He is in second place in Tehran for a parliamentary seat, just after Aref. Another conservative figure seen as sympathetic to Rouhani is Ali Larijani, the current speaker, who is on course to win in Qom, a city of religious shrines that has long been a conservative bastion.

هیچکسی یارای مقاومت در مقابل خواست اکثریت #مردم را ندارد و هر کسی را مردم نخواهند باید کنار برود#هاشمی #هاشمی_رفسنجانی #انتخابات #خبرگان94 — هاشمی رفسنجانی (@rafsanjani_fa) February 28, 2016

Broader support in parliament would strengthen Rouhani’s hand, However, key strategic decisions, such as Iran’s involvement in the Syrian conflict, still rest with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the ultimate power under Iran’s hybrid political system.

The reformists’ victory is a credit to Mohammad Khatami, the former president seen as the ultimate leader of the country’s reformist movement. Khatami has faced huge restrictions on his movement and activities in recent years but is leading from behind the scenes.

The Iranian media is banned from mentioning his name or publishing his photograph. Khatami released a video online early in the campaign period urging political activists to unite behind “the list of hope”.

His call for support helped create huge momentum and the main opposition leader, who is under house arrest, and a number of prominent political prisoners also sent messages asking people to vote for the list.

The candidates who appear to have lost seats in both political bodies are as revealing as those who are set to win. Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a hardliner close to Khamenei, whose name topped the list of “principalist” candidates, is on course to lose his seat in the parliament. In the race for the assembly, at least two ultra-conservative ayatollahs, Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah Yazdi and Mohammad Yazdi, the current chairman, are set to lose.

The elections were the first since Iran’s landmark nuclear agreement last summer and the lifting of sanctions in mid-January. The short and carefully controlled campaign – marked by the prior disqualification of hundreds of candidates – was dominated by the state of the economy, which has improved in recent months though few tangible gains have trickled down to ordinary people.



پوسترهای جناح‌های مختلف: لیست "امید" در تهران pic.twitter.com/I327iQfpGf — دیدبان مجلس (@MajlisMonitor) February 23, 2016

“The reformists and moderates have managed to take at least a third of the seats,” said Sadegh Zibakalam, professor of politics at Tehran University. Rafsanjani’s success in the assembly was extremely important. “We can’t say that the ultra-conservatives were defeated, but the conservatives can’t say they received a huge mandate,” he added.

The precise shape of the next parliament will take time to emerge. Because so many reformists and independents were disqualified, many candidates are unknown to the public and party lines and affiliations have become blurred, with some powerful conservative figures now backing Rouhani.



“Some of them are like watermelons,” said Saeed Laylaz, a reformist political commentator. “Until you open them up you don’t know what’s inside.”