To most of Uzbekistan’s population, it doesn’t really matter whether the president, Islam Karimov, is alive or dead. What matters more is that the crisis prompted by his poor health is seized upon to demand change for people living under a regime that thrives on corruption.

At present, Uzbek citizens are still in the dark about the health of their leader and who may succeed him. Karimov, 78, suffered a suspected brain haemorrhage at the weekend. In the event of his incapacitation, power is supposed to pass to the senate.

But parliament has not yet been convened, and in a country where politics takes place behind closed doors, it makes sense that the succession plan follows the same secretive pattern.



In the short term, it remains to be seen whether Uzbekistan’s presidency will transfer temporarily to the senate speaker and former justice minister, Nigmatilla Yuldashev.

Looking further ahead, the real contenders are the national security service chief, Rustam Inoyatov, the prime minister, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and the deputy prime minister, Rustam Azimov. The head of Karimov’s administration, Zelimkhan Haydarov, is likely to play kingmaker. All are part of the political elite and unlikely to overturn the status quo.

Uzbekistan is celebrating 25 years of independence from the Soviet Union, but its citizens have never really been free

But change is precisely what is needed. Uzbekistan consistently scrapes the bottom of global rankings for the world’s most corrupt countries. In Central Asia’s most populous nation, the consequences of this have been extreme.

Human rights violations are closely linked with corrupt practices. Last year, two brothers were arrested after reportedly refusing to pay bribes to law enforcement officials. One was sentenced to eight years in prison and the other died in custody, which human rights groups believe was a result of torture.

Corruption also has a financial cost. The US Department of Justice is in the process of pursuing $850m (£642m) in alleged proceeds of corrupt telecoms deals.

The money, currently frozen in accounts across Europe, is the equivalent of 7% of Uzbekistan’s annual budget, 50% of the country’s health budget and 21% of the education budget.

Karimov’s administration has lodged a counter-claim demanding the return of $300m of the money being sought by the US, once recovered. But doing so would restart the cycle of corruption.

To make an impact, the US must insist that the funds are used to support reform in Uzbekistan.

There is a precedent. When officials uncovered millions of dollars in corrupt payments from a US businessman to Kazakh officials in 2003, they used the seized cash to set up a civil society organisation.

Through the Bota Foundation, $115m of disputed assets were repatriated to Kazakhstan’s most vulnerable communities.

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But returning stolen assets is just one step. International law enforcement agencies should also strictly impose anti-bribery laws against companies operating in Uzbekistan.

International financial institutions, including the World Bank, have been criticised in the past for supporting Uzbekistan’s agricultural sector, which has employed forced labour. The World Bank in particular should precondition loans on workers’ rights being upheld.



The country celebrates 25 years of independence from the Soviet Union on Thursday, but Uzbeks have never really been free. Karimov is the only president that Uzbekistan has ever known.

While citizens are unlikely to have a say in the process of who will replace him, global attention on Karimov’s ill health should serve as a reminder of their lack of freedom, exacerbated by rampant corruption at the heart of the regime.