by Samuel Dale

I have a confession to make. If David Cameron was Conservative leader in 2020 fighting an election against a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour then I would have no choice. I’d vote Conservative for the first time in my life.

I wouldn’t duck the choice with a vote for Tim Farron’s ludicrous Liberal Democrats. Farron has done nothing to build on some of Nick Clegg’s smart, centrist positioning while detoxifying the party from its shambolic U-turns and dreadfully naïve politics when in coalition.

Nope, it’s Tory or Labour at a general election. It’s about choosing a prime minister and there is no doubt that Cameron is better than Corbyn.

We are all familar with how Corbyn has gleefully abandoned Labour moderates and centrists. His pacifism and masochistic foreign policy, opposition to Trident renewal, business policy, monetary policy, income tax levels and much more beside, make him unpalatable to me.

So how can the Tories capitalise. Cameron won’t be leader in 2020 and Corybn may not be either. The real question for Conservatives is, how much do they want my vote and thousands like it. Blairite, pro-EU liberals comfortable with high levels of immigration and capitalism but worried about inequality. Corbyn has opened the space, can they take it?

The Conservatives have made no secret of their desire to (occasionally) pitch to people like me since their May election victory. It’s not easy to prise away Labour tribalists but are making good progress.

Over the past few months, I’ve stopped listening to Corbyn and his circus and started listening to Cameron. Here’s how.

Firstly, Cameron stood on the steps of Downing Street after his stunning victory and talked about One Nation Conservatism. That was fairly predictable post-election statesmanship but I noticed.

Then came the intellectual heft to back it up. I read Steve Hilton’s More Human book, and saw the promotion of Robert Halfon to Tory deputy chair and impressive projects such as the Good Right.

And there was the budget. Some real policy to back up the talk with big increases to the minimum wage, removing the perks of buy-to-let landlords and a crackdown on non-doms. I was now really starting to pay attention to this almost centre-left, New Labour-style budget.

Then in his conference speech, Cameron spoke about the need for far-reaching social reform through expanding educational opportunity and choice; tackling institutional and passive racism from employers and universities and helping the most desperate families rebuild their lives.

This was a direct pitch to me and other Labour voters and members who feel bewildered following the shambolic, morally bankrupt leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.

For the first time, I was listening closely to what the Tory leader was saying. And I was still listening again when I read Cameron’s Life Chances speech on January 11.

This was unquestionably the most impressive and thought-provoking political speech since the election and set out a compelling case outlining some of the most intractable social problems infecting our nation.

He talked about helping poorer families save, again about tackling inherent racism, the scandal of poverty blocking opportunities and education, education, education.

Clearly there are many, many Tory issues I find difficult to stomach such as the brutal cuts to welfare (especially the abandoned tax credit cuts), horrific immigration and refugee polices and close-minded Euroscepticism.

Without Cameron’s record of progressive reforms such as international aid and gay marriage, I would need some concrete action to demonstrate commitment to a socially progressive agenda.

I would like to see pension tax relief cut drastically for the wealthy and expensive properties taxed more appropriately. And a much more aggressive approach to reforming capitalism with the next Tory leader taking on the mantle of former US Republican president Teddy Roosevelt so admired by Ed Miliband.

I would also like to see a better narrative and more liberal policies on welcoming desperate refugees as well as economic migrants who contribute so much (that may be too much to ask).

I am disheartened by George Osborne’s capitulation to the banking lobby over financial services regulation since the election. And concerned about the tax deal with Google and his subsequent boasts.

I have been appalled by Theresa May’s revolting anti-immigration rhetoric and her flirtations with EU exit.

And Boris’ consistent anti-EU bashing combined with his fawning over banks and big business is less than attractive.

So it is not a done deal. The socially progressive aspect of Cameron’s Tories comes and goes. A more sustained approach would be welcome.

I remain a member of the Labour party for now, hoping Corbyn will disappear soon under the weight of electoral reality.

But he may not and, right now, I don’t know who I am going to vote for in 2020. Maybe the Tories shouldn’t bend to me. Maybe I am politically homeless.

But I am one of the new swing voters Corbyn has created and the big question is: how much do the Tories really want my vote?

Sam Dale is a financial and political journalist

Tags: centrist, David Cameron, general election 2020, Jeremy Corbyn, moderate, one nation, Samuel Dale, swing voters, Trident