Sep 29, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) and Atlanta Braves catcher A.J. Pierzynski (15) talk in the dugout during the fourth inning of their game against the Washington Nationals at Turner Field. The Braves won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

During interviews at the end of the season John Hart and John Coppolella said they would be aggressive in the free agent market but were not going to be players for the big name free agents. How can they do both?

Free agents are a payroll issue

Everyone wants the best players on their teams but for middle market teams like the Atlanta Braves sustaining huge payrolls is a fantasy. The Braves payroll’s averaged just over $95M since 2002 with four years exceeding $100M. Hart and company have said we can expect a payroll between 100M and 120M again next year and it’s reasonable to expect that to be the case. Sportrac projects a 2016 40-man payroll commitment of $79,168,898 without arbitration increases.

There are only five players arbitration eligible in 2016, Pedro Ciriaco, Mike Minor, Shelby Miller, Arodys Vizcaino and Chris Withrow. I expect Ciriaco to be nontendered. If as they’ve hinted they tender Minor a contract it will be at this year’s salary of $5.6M. Shelby Miller could see a bump to about $3M unless they extend him while Vizcaino could earn around $1M and Withrow $650K.

If Peter Moylan is brought back as well he’ll earn at least $1.5M bringing to $90,918,898; let’s call that $91M for 14 players of the 40 the roster will eventually include.

These numbers are cap costs and include signing bonuses still due and retained salary for players traded but for whom we still have a financial obligation. In this case that’s $300K for Trevor Cahill with signing bonus amounts totaling just under $1.6M, not a significant amount is terms of a $120M payroll.

The $91M figure allows the Braves to spend another $29M maximum without trading anyone and they still need to add 11 players to fill the 25 man roster. Filling the roster with league minimum players raises the payroll $95M+ and isn’t a probable scenario if they do indeed intend to be a 500 + team next year.

It’s pretty easy to see that adding some one like David Price who will get somewhere north of $25M a year or Yoenis Cespedes at $18M a year isn’t practical in a market the size of Atlanta.