VANCOUVER—Either the Trans Mountain Pipeline could topple the ruling party supporting it, or a coalition government could kill the Trans Mountain pipeline. It’s a dilemma observers say is sure to arise if Canada ends up with a minority government as election polls currently suggest.

Such a situation would force parties with fewer seats than government or the official opposition to show where they stand on environmental issues said Kai Nagata, communications director for the environmental group Dogwood Initiative, which could mean the end of the pipeline.

“I’m optimistic that a minority scenario would force the parties to get real about their priorities and listen to Canadians about the direction that we want our government to go,” Nagata said.

The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion would double the capacity of an existing pipeline from Alberta terminating in Burnaby, B.C., on the shores of Burrard Inlet and result in a sevenfold increase in tanker traffic. Environmental activists and Indigenous groups have staged protests and launched court challenges to stop the expansion from going through.

Alberta’s provincial government has long insisted the pipeline must be built for the sake of the province’s economy, with provincial premier Jason Kenney warning Ottawa of a national unity crisis if the project isn’t completed.

Last year the Liberal government purchased the embattled project for $4.5 billion and has vowed to build it. The Conservative Party also says it will build the pipeline if elected to government. Nagata said the two parties would have to work together to hold power if the NDP and the Greens stick to their promise to fight the project.

But Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May has said her party will not work with any government trying to build the project. Website 338Canada, which aggregates and analyzes polls and historical data, has the Greens leading the popular vote on Vancouver Island with 30 per cent of support, lending weight to May’s assertion that her party will sweep all seven Island ridings next week.

Meanwhile, New Democrat leader Jagmeet Singh has said he will fight the pipeline, but didn’t reveal if he would demand the pipeline be scrapped as part of a condition for support in a minority government situation.

“I won’t negotiate a future government right now, but I will tell people what my priorities are and absolutely my priority is to fight that pipeline,” Singh told supporters in Surrey, B.C., over the weekend.

The NDP did not respond to a direct question from Star Vancouver Tuesday about whether the party would topple a minority government choosing to back the pipeline, saying only that they would fight for climate change.

If Canada finds itself with a minority government on Oct. 22, Nagata said his organization will expect parties promising to fight the pipeline to stick to their pledge.

“We will push the MPs in our province very hard to hold to their commitment not to continue pumping billions of public dollars into this project,” he said.

But University of British Columbia political science professor Kathryn Harrison said it isn’t likely smaller parties will give a governing party absolute ultimatums and give up a chance to make gains on other policy areas in order to scuttle the pipeline.

For the Liberals in particular, she said it would be “humiliating” for them to reverse their stance on the pipeline in order to hold power.

Killing the pipeline, Harrison said, “would be a very big ask for either the NDP or the Greens because this has been such a signature policy of the Liberals. Justin Trudeau had moments where he could have backed down or walked away from it.”

Instead, she said, Trudeau has chosen to continue with the pipeline and the Conservatives have also committed to finishing the project, which weakens the bargaining power the NDP and Greens hold to hash out a workable co-operation in the House.

Harrison said the NDP and Greens may simply opt to go for smaller policy concessions rather than spark another election right away. This could result in voters who don’t support the pipeline placing blame on their parties for allowing it to go through.

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Nagata said MPs in B.C. who have made promises to make fossil fuel subsidies and climate change policy part of their conditions to support a minority government would likely face the wrath of voters if they don’t stick to their pledges.

“If there were members of Parliament who betrayed that position, they would be facing voters again very soon in a minority scenario and they would have to factor that in,” he said.

With files from The Canadian Press

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