A season that began with so much promise has suddenly turned south for Indiana football.

After the Hoosiers began the season undefeated in non-conference play, there was a distinct sense of optimism within the program. It was IU’s first 4-0 start since 1990, putting the Cream and Crimson in prime position to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. All they needed was two wins in Big Ten play to get to that magic number of six victories which would virtually assure them of a postseason appearance.

Even after the loss in their conference opener against top-ranked Ohio State, things continued to look on the up and up. You could make the argument that the Hoosiers gave the Buckeyes their toughest test of the season up to that point. After all, IU had a goal-to-go situation with a chance to tie or even win the game with a successful two-point conversion attempt. OSU ultimately prevailed 34-27 but Indiana’s valiant effort gave the appearance this team was making legitimate progress towards becoming an upper-echelon Big Ten team.

That seems to be all but a distant memory three games later.

Heading into their bye week, IU currently finds themselves sporting a 4-4 overall record. After their near upset of the Buckeyes, they’ve dropped three successive games in differing fashion.

Injuries to key players on offense against Ohio State carried over to the Hoosiers’ next game against Penn State. Both quarterback Nate Sudfeld and running back Jordan Howard were unable to go against the Nittany Lions. Zander Diamont got the start in place of Sudfeld and even he had to be replaced due to an injury suffered in the second quarter. Third-stringer Danny Cameron played the entirety of the second half and IU was only able to muster 234 yards of total offense all game, slumping to a 29-7 defeat.

One week later saw one of the more shocking results in all of college football this season, with Indiana coming up on the wrong end of it. The Hoosiers welcomed Rutgers to Bloomington and at one point led 52-27 in the third quarter. Sudfeld was back from injury and played like a man possessed for most of the game, eventually finishing with 464 yards and four touchdowns. However, a special teams blunder late in the third followed by two crucial Sudfeld interceptions in the final stanza enabled the Scarlet Knights to eventually tie the game 52-52. On the final possession, Rutgers marched down the field on a 13 play, 59 yard drive that culminated with a game-winning 26-yard field goal as time expired.

Then came last week’s game in East Lansing against undefeated Michigan State. Much like the game with OSU, the Hoosiers brought their A-game against a top ten opponent for most of the day. They trailed 28-26 towards the end of the third quarter and even had a chance to take the lead heading into the fourth. However, kicker Griffin Oakes missed a 42-yard field goal (he also missed two extra points earlier in the game) and the Spartans wouldn’t look back. MSU would score 24 unanswered points and coupled with quarterback Connor Cook’s masterful performance (398 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions), Sparty would roll to a 52-26 win.

Where does this put Indiana as regards its ultimate objective of making a bowl game this season? Four games remain on IU’s schedule with their next two at Memorial Stadium. However, they face Iowa and Michigan in both those games. The Hawkeyes could enter the game as one of the conference’s three remaining unbeatens should they hold serve against Maryland in Iowa City this weekend. The Wolverines may have lost two (and their fans probably still don’t want to hear about that second one against MSU) but are clearly a revitalized program in Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Ann Arbor. The Hoosiers will find it incredibly difficult to score against a Michigan defense allowing a minuscule 9.3 points per game.

Then comes two winnable road games against Maryland and Purdue to close out the season, but to stay it’s been a struggle for IU football away from home is an understatement. The Hoosiers have won all of four games on the road in head coach Kevin Wilson’s five seasons in Bloomington. Though the Terps and Boilermakers are a combined 3-11 on the year so far, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be a complete and utter pushover on their home turf. That will especially be the case against Purdue, who would love to spoil IU’s bowl hopes should they have five wins heading into that big Old Oaken Bucket rivalry clash.

But are the Hoosiers truly dead and buried from a bowl qualification standpoint if they finish the season 5-7? Normally, this would be the case since 6-6 is usually the cut-off point for bowl eligibility. However, with a total of 40 bowls this season and consequently 80 available spots, there may not be enough teams with .500 or better records to fill every single one. What to do?

The NCAA has a contingency plan for this very situation, and it’s one of the few instances lately that I find myself in agreement with the organization in terms of their decisions on certain matters. In 2004, they instituted what’s known as Academic Progress Rate (APR) which is essentially a measure of how well the student-athletes within each program perform in the classroom.

Per the NCAA website, APR is described as follows:

“The APR, or Academic Progress Rate, holds institutions accountable for the academic progress of their student-athletes through a team-based metric that accounts for the eligibility and retention of each student-athlete for each academic term.”

In the event that bowls have to look towards schools without a winning regular season record to fill a given slot this year, those with higher APR scores during the 2013-14 academic year are given priority. If we take a look at the schools at the top of these rankings, we find out Indiana could be in the running.

As you can see, the Hoosiers are in a tie for 18th nationally in APR with a handful of schools and are in fairly good position to be the highest ranked 5-7 team and thus bowl-eligible if it should come to this. Of the 17 programs ahead of them in these rankings, 10 appear to be locks to finish at or above .500 or are already there. Let’s list them below with their current record.

Wisconsin (6-2), Duke (6-1), Northwestern (6-2), Michigan (5-2), Stanford (6-1), Utah State (4-3), Clemson (7-0), Boise State (6-2), Air Force (4-3), Notre Dame (6-1), Alabama (7-1)

Three schools look to be on the opposite end of that spectrum, in that I don’t see them getting to five wins on the year. They’re included below along with their remaining schedule.

Vanderbilt (3-4): at Houston (10/31), at Florida (11/7), vs Kentucky (11/14), vs Texas A&M (11/21), at Tennessee (11/28)

Army West Point (2-6): at Air Force (11/7), vs Tulane (11/14), vs Rutgers (11/21), vs Navy in Philadelphia (12/12)

Boston College (3-5): vs Virginia Tech (10/30), vs NC State (11/7), vs Notre Dame (11/21), at Syracuse (11/28)

Both Vandy and BC need just two wins, but have uphill battles in that regard given the difficulty of their remaining schedules. As such, their ability to finish with five wins will be challenged.

That leaves us with three schools who could be of particular concern to be selected ahead of Indiana should they all finish 5-7. Once again, the teams in question will be presented below along with their current record and remaining games.

Nebraska (3-5): at Purdue (10/31), vs Michigan State (11/7), at Rutgers (11/14), vs Iowa (11/27)

Rutgers (3-4): at Wisconsin (10/31), at Michigan (11/7), vs Nebraska (11/14), at Army (11/21), vs Maryland (11/28)

Georgia Tech (3-5): at Virginia (10/31), vs Virginia Tech (11/12), at Miami (FL) (11/21), vs Georgia (11/28)

Of these three, Rutgers appears to have the slightest of edges in terms of being able to harvest five wins out of their remaining games. They may even be able to get to six should they upend Nebraska at home, a feat that doesn’t look so daunting given the Huskers’ struggles in Mike Riley’s first season as head coach. Those same Huskers had better beat Purdue on the road or might need to pull off an upset at home against either MSU or Iowa to have any shot at 5-7. And despite Georgia Tech’s thrilling last-second win over Florida State last weekend, their schedule has challenges of its own.

The fact remains that Indiana can avoid having to sweat it out in this fashion by grinding out at least two wins. Their first chance comes next week against an Iowa team that, though riding high, is a team Indiana has had success against, having defeated them three times in the past decade. Only Purdue and Illinois have more losses to the Hoosiers in that span.

If indeed they do finish at 5-7 along with the three schools mentioned above, they could still get an invite if there are only 76 teams who finish 6-6 or better. Given that 83 teams finished the regular season at or above .500 in 2014, it’s hard to see that happening.

Though Wilson should be commended for bringing in kids committed to excelling on the field as well as in the classroom, it’s unfortunate at this point in his tenure that Indiana may have to back into a bowl appearance by virtue of its academic standing. The silver lining to such a scenario, at least from Wilson’s perspective, is that it may somehow convince athletic director Fred Glass that Hoosier football continues to move in the right direction under his leadership.

Whether or not that truly is the case is something that students, fans, boosters and even some administrators will likely be discussing over the next month or so with four crucial games to close out the season.

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