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The riding

Kanata-Carleton is a new riding created for the 2015 federal election. It contains large swaths of the former riding of Carleton-Mississippi Mills, a Tory stronghold, and parts of Nepean-Carleton. The new riding is bordered on two sides by the curving Ottawa River, and stretches east to Highway 7 and south to Golden Line Road.

There is no incumbent in the contest since Conservative whip Gordon O’Connor retired from politics; the former brigadier-general dominated elections in Carleton-Mississippi Mills for the past decade.

Voters in the riding are affluent, educated and engaged. In the last federal election, almost 73 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot in Carleton-Mississippi Mills — well above the national average of 61.1 per cent.

2011 results

As a new riding, there are no previous election results for Kanata-Carleton. But, according to an analysis by the Pundit’s Guide to Canadian Elections, the riding’s voters leaned heavily (53.7 per cent) toward the Conservatives in 2011.

What to watch for

With no incumbent, the riding is ripe for the plucking by any one of the three major parties, although the Conservatives and Liberals would seem to have the best chance of winning. McCrimmon is a strong candidate whose military service could also appeal to the riding’s Conservative voters.

Although an untested candidate, Pamic enters the race as the favourite by virtue of the riding’s voting history. Pamic’s election chances could also be helped by vote splitting among his Liberal and NDP rivals.