Keith Willoughby says the numbers don't lie.

The Associate Dean of Research and Academics at the University of Saskatchewan's Edwards School of Business has designed the computer model the CFL hosts on its website. And he predicts the Riders have a three percent chance of coming in first in the Western Conference this year.

"Whenever we win, we win by close games," he said. "And when we lose, we're horrid. And unfortunately, because the model looks at margin of victory, it's been penalizing us."

Willoughby says the model works by looking at the previous games that all teams have played, looks at the margins of victory, then looks at the remainder of the season.

"We made a computer model that basically does 10,000 simulations of the remaining season, and then based on those remaining results, we can determine the likelihood of any team finishing first."

Calculations under fire

The predictions have come under some criticism by fans, who say football games are decided on the field, not in a database.

Willoughby, an admitted Rider fan, said his prediction stands.

"My comeback to that is we're looking at an objective series of statistics, in terms of what's happened in previous games, and using that as our best predictor for the future."

In case you're wondering which team Willoughby's program believes will come out victorious, it's predicting the Calgary Stampeders have a 94 per cent chance of victory.