Grand Teton is one of the “highest, coldest and wettest” of the eight parks studied, researchers wrote, which bodes well for the continued health of the pika habitat there. The population is expected to remain stable, and pika distribution throughout the park may even increase by the end of the century, the report said.

However, it’s a different story for pikas living in Craters of the Moon — the driest and hottest of the eight parks. Pikas already are limited to the higher-elevation lava flows near the park’s visitor’s center, and their distribution may continue to shrink, the report said. This could make them vulnerable to extirpation, or local extinction, in coming decades.

Pika habitat also will continue to decline in Rocky Mountain National Park due to higher temperatures, the researchers said, making pikas “highly vulnerable” to extirpation.

Yellowstone National Park, which also is expected to become warmer and drier, is another place where the pika could be wiped out, researchers wrote. However, researchers were encouraged that the animals may be able to hold on in Yellowstone due to an especially high genetic diversity, which could boost the species’ resilience to heat.

“Because of this study, we can see that other factors, like habitat connectivity and gene flow, can influence the extent that climate change disrupts an ecosystem,” said Tom Rodhouse, a National Park Service ecologist and one of the paper’s authors. “This knowledge can be used to develop management and conservation practices for the coming decades.”

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