The president will announce a drawdown of forces in Afghanistan during his speech. Troop withdrawal raises questions

President Barack Obama’s announcement Tuesday that he’ll withdraw 34,000 more troops from Afghanistan over the coming year is a major step toward his goal of handing Afghans responsibility for the war by 2014, but the president will leave one key question unanswered — what happens next?

White House officials previewing Obama’s State of the Union Address said Obama would not talk about the U.S. role in Afghanistan after the Afghan National Security Forces take primary responsibility for the conflict there, leaving open the debate about how many American troops should stay for the longer term and what their mission should be.


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In the interim, Obama’s decision would leave about 33,000 American troops in Afghanistan, most of whom will continue pulling back from their forward outposts and instead operate from major bases. They’ll continue to face some combat, commanders say, as well as support their Afghan protégés, but all along hand ever-greater swaths of territory to the indigenous forces. Eventually, that last body of troops also would come home by the end of 2014, and what would follow is still under debate.

Pentagon and White House officials are deliberating that, sources said. Gen. John Allen, who just departed Kabul as the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has submitted his recommendations for a future troop presence, but leaders in Washington have not yet reached a consensus about what they’ll recommend to Obama. As that internal discussion takes place, Washington is also talking with the Afghan government.

The U.S. is negotiating with Kabul over the numbers, roles and missions for the post-2014 U.S. presence, a White House official said, in pursuit of an agreement "that would contemplate two narrow missions for the United States beyond 2014: targeting the remnants of Al Qaeda and training Afghan security forces."

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The administration hopes those two missions — improving the ANSF and keeping some special operators on hand to prevent Al Qaeda terrorists from using Afghanistan as a base to launch terrorist attacks — will be what makes post-U.S. Afghanistan different from post-Soviet Afghanistan, which eventually crumbled into the failed state run by the Taliban and gave shelter to Osama bin Laden.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Tuesday in a farewell speech at the Pentagon that he thought the U.S. was pursuing the correct strategy — “We are on the right track in Afghanistan,” he said.

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A senior defense official added that the generals in Afghanistan agree.

“The approach you'll hear tonight reflects the best military advice from commanders in the Pentagon and in the field," the official told POLITICO.

As for the next step, Pentagon and White House officials are said to be debating post-2014 troop levels among themselves, but have not yet made a final recommendation to Obama for the size or composition of a lingering American force. Press reports have put that potential footprint at as many as 20,000 troops, and White House officials also have not ruled out leaving behind none — especially if the Afghan government cannot agree to grant U.S. forces legal immunity under a future status of forces agreement.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai said during a visit with Obama last month that he didn’t think immunity would be an insurmountable roadblock in Kabul, though he reminded the president that Afghanistan will continue to need help affording the roughly 352,000-strong army and police force that ISAF has built over the more than decadelong war. The U.S. and international governments are expected to need to continue helping Kabul pay for security for at least another 10 years.

The Obama administration says the ANSF is making good progress in being able to operate without American assistance, and one senior official pointed out the degree to which Afghanistan’s home-grown forces are already stepping up.

“Afghan forces are leading nearly 90 percent of operations across the country, and by this spring, they’ll be assuming the lead across the entire country, with the United States and ISAF stepped back to a train, advise and assist role,” the senior administration official said. “In that capacity, we will no longer be leading combat operations but will provide support to the Afghans as they lead operations through the crucial fighting seasons of 2013 and 2014. By the end of 2014, we will responsibly bring our war in Afghanistan to a close.”

But Afghanistan needs more than military assistance and a long-term U.S. presence, officials agree. It also needs something the outside world may not be able to provide — a stable, legitimate central government. The way Afghans vote in their next major national election, scheduled for June 2014, could be the next big turning point in the direction of their relationship with the U.S. and the rest of the world.

“[The elections] are probably the most critical thing that will happen in the next 22 months,” a Defense official said.

On Capitol Hill, members of Congress said they’re glad to see the 12-year war — the longest in the nation’s history — come to an end but said they didn’t want the United States to abandon Afghanistan like it did at the end of the Soviet invasion in 1989.

Sen. John McCain told POLITICO that he wanted to review Obama's announcement before commenting in-depth. But he noted, “Obviously, it’s a matter of significant concern. I’ve always voiced my concern about troop levels. Just as we’ve watched Iraq unravel, I’m worried about our ability to not only be effective but protect the people we leave behind.”

Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), an Armed Services Committee member, also voiced concern about Obama's efforts in Afghanistan.

“I’ve not been impressed with his schedule from Day One on our withdrawal from Afghanistan, and this sounds like another attempt to fast-track folks coming out of there," he told POLITICO. "We’ve got to be careful. We made a mistake in Iraq. I think it’s pretty obvious that drawing everybody out too quickly and if we don’t leave the right size residual force there, then there are Americans who are still going to be there whose lives are going to be in jeopardy and we can’t give up obviously everything we’ve gained over there.

"We won’t know until the president speaks tonight exactly what he’s talking about, but we’re going to scrutinize very closely what his decision is because we’ve got to make sure the right kind of protections remain in place," Chambliss added.

The White House said Obama was to have spoken on the phone with Karzai, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel before Tuesday’s announcement of the coming withdrawal.

Darren Samuelsohn contributed to this report.

This article first appeared on POLITICO Pro at 9:57 a.m. on February 12, 2013.