Death, one imagines, would. But will Chavez's lieutenants report the news of his passing when it happens? Might they keep Chavez on his ventilator -- in the barest state of life -- for as long as suits them to say, technically truthfully, that he still lives?

With both countries' leaderships close-lipped, Venezuelans themselves have no more information than the rest of us. And there may be an incentive to obscure his status, say some opposition leaders and analysts. Two of Chavez's lieutenants, they claim, are fighting for power. One of them is Chavez's publicly anointed heir, new vice-president Nicolas Maduro; the other is National Assembly leader Diosdado Cabello.

The two men have made a public show of unity in recent days, but opposition leaders allege the appearance is deceiving. A January 6 report from the AP quotes opposition member Julio Borges: "'While the president is sick in Havana, they have a power conflict,' Borges said. 'That's why they are engendering this violation of the constitution.'" Maduro, in turn, accused the opposition of plotting a coup.

Even some Chavez allies -- like Heinz Dietrich, a theorist of Chavismo now living in Mexico City -- see the two men in conflict.

Maduro and Cabello come from different wings of the Chavista movement, and have different allegiances. While Maduro is more likely to succeed Chavez, if Cabello wanted a fight he would have strong support in the military.

Yet while news outlets have been indulging in succession speculation, there's little concrete evidence of a real power struggle. With official silence provoking worried reactions, these breathless reports will almost certainly turn out to be overblown. If there is a power struggle, however, odds are the arguments will hinge in part on a few words in the Venezuelan constitution.

The Heir Apparent

On December 9, before he left for treatment in Cuba, Chavez sat down before television cameras with his two top lieutenants, Maduro and Cabello, on either side of him. In an emotional speech, he suggested for the first time that he might not return to lead the South America country.

If it becomes necessary to call an election, Chavez said, looking directly into the camera, "pick Nicolas Maduro as president."

The press has spent several weeks acquainting Americans with Maduro: former bus driver and transportation union leader, and Chavez confidant. His leadership style is broadly considered a little rough. A reporter for the Wall Street Journal remarked that "he has been caught in recent TV interviews glancing down at note cards."

If he does become Venezuela's next president, he will follow on the heels of a boss who could speak extemporaneously for five or six hours at a time on his weekly talk show Aló Presidente.

Other reporters have noted Maduro's extensive ties to the Cuban government. Practically the only idiosyncratic piece of information that has escaped from behind the leadership's curtain of silence is a fact about Maduro's religious beliefs. Several outlets have reported that he is an adherent of the late Indian mystic Sri Sathya Sai.