Tens of millions of dollars are being spent to effect that change. And as has been the case for past efforts to curtail carbon, an opposition of business groups and oil industry leaders is outspending proponents in an attempt to erode support. The No On 1631 campaign, sponsored by the Western States Petroleum Association, has received over $20 million in funding from seven individual donors, while the Yes On 1631 group has collected around $8 million from nearly 2,000 donors.

The impact of that money can be seen in places like Hulu and Twitter, where the campaign is running ads that claim the initiative would raise gasoline prices and negatively affect small businesses and families while letting larger emitters, such as the TransAlta power plant in Centralia, remain unaffected. Those ads are based on the findings of NERA, an economic consulting firm commissioned by the campaign to study the initiative — No On 1631 spokesperson Dana Bieber maintains that the campaign was not involved in conducting the study.

The ads are likely to resonate with voters like Blaine Rutledge, a Republican in Auburn who took part in the poll. He told Crosscut that he will be voting against the measure due to concerns that the fee would cost his family.

“At this point, it’s just about money,” he said. “We’re a family of five with three vehicles and another driver four months away.”

Yes On 1631 is quick to counter the claims from the opposition. Communications Director Nick Abraham’s rebuttal to the NERA study’s claims is two-pronged. First, he says, the study comes from “an incredibly discredited source,” noting that NERA has previously produced research downplaying the health effects of smoking and inflated the cost of Clean Power Plan programs . Regarding the TransAlta plant, he explains the initiative intentionally avoided targeting it since it will close by 2025.

Abraham said that during the carbon fee campaign’s early internal polling, they saw support for the initiative within both political parties. Since No On 1631 kicked off their campaign, Abraham says they’ve seen the emergence of a partisan divide.

“They’re trying to make this about government overreach,” Abraham says, adding that the No On 1631 campaign has been targeted towards conservative voters. “They’re really trying to undermine our campaign.”

Meanwhile, supporters have rallied to ensure the initiative passes. In addition to broad support from clean energy advocates and communities of color — two contingents that largely did not support the 2016 initiative — the measure has received backing from the Nature Conservancy (its largest donor), the Washington State Labor Council and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates.