opinion

Mark Kelly is up 6.7 points over Sen. Martha McSally in new poll despite Trump's support

No wonder Sen. Martha McSally is so desperate to get all of Trump’s supporters to have a fighting chance against Mark Kelly.

The retired NASA astronaut has opened a 6.7-point lead over McSally in a new poll released on the same day Trump is to boost her candidacy.

The poll of 400 likely voters conducted Feb. 7 though Feb. 9 shows Kelly ahead with 46% compared to McSally’s 39.3%.

McSally will get a boost from Trump’s Phoenix rally on Wednesday, which may cut into the 12.5% undecided voters in the HighGround poll.

McSally, who’s fighting to win the seat she was appointed to by Gov. Doug Ducey, has a strong lead or 78% among Republicans. Predictably, Kelly is drawing 82.3% among Democrats, according to the survey.

The party support isn’t that illuminating, given the country’s hard-line divide. But the fact that Kelly is ahead is significant considering McSally is Trump and Ducey’s choice.

Under normal circumstances that kind of backing and McSally’s high-name-recognition statewide would give her an edge.

But these aren’t normal times. And McSally isn’t a senator who even pretends to represent all Arizonans. She has sided with Trump, betting her political career on him and his policies, which have divided the nation and Arizonans.

All bets are off and she’ll have to get all conservative Republicans and a few moderates to win. That’s still possible, of course, but pulling out a victory won't be easy.

Arizona is changing. It is no longer the conservative stronghold that Republicans dominated for decades. It has been turning purple with a more diverse and independent-voting population, something McSally has chosen to ignore.

Elvia Díaz is an editorial columnist for The Republic and azcentral. Reach her at 602-444-8606 or elvia.diaz@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter, @elviadiaz1.