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“Chris Alexander did himself a near-catastrophic negative in that

interview,” said Maggi. “That particular day and what it did for his

overall image was substantial and will have long-lasting impacts.”

Wild card:

The NDP is now polling now at 17 per cent in Ajax (20 per cent among decided voters). A similarly robust showing in 2011 helped Alexander to victory, Maggi noted.

Poll methodology:

Mainstreet polled 690 adults in the riding using interactive telephone response technology on Sept. 14. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.72 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For the full poll, including questions, please see mainstreetresearch.ca

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The poll:

Spadina-Fort York riding, in the heart of Toronto.

The findings:

The NDP’s Olivia Chow, a former MP, unsuccessful mayoralty candidate and widow of former NDP leader Jack Layton, is ahead of Liberal rival Adam Vaughan among all voters polled, with 34 per cent support against his 30 per cent. Among decided voters, she is at 45 per cent, and Vaughan is at 39.

The context:

This race is far from over, with undecideds high: almost one-quarter of voters in the riding have not made up their minds. Then there is the “X-factor” of numerous condominium towers, whose predominately young residents are hard to reach and traditionally less likely to vote than those in single-family homes, Maggi said.

“I put it at still too early to call,” said the pollster.

At 10 per cent among all voters, and 13 among decideds, the Conservatives appear not to be a big factor at this point.

Poll methodology:

Mainstreet polled 671 voters in the riding using interactive telephone response technology. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.72 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For the full poll, including questions, please see mainstreetresearch.ca

– National Post/Ottawa Citizen