Bridget Kendall

BBC

November 13, 2008

A deep-seated global crisis is often a chance to redraw the map, reflecting shifts in the balance of power in different ways.

First, the crisis can confirm or nudge ahead trends which seem to be happening anyway – like the shift of power from Western to emerging Eastern players.

Second, it can put flesh on reforms already in the air – like plans to overhaul the international financial architecture to be discussed at this weekend’s summit being hosted by President Bush in Washington.

And third, there are the instinctive emergency reactions, supposedly temporary, but which can end up reshaping the global chessboard for years to come – the hurried nationalisation of some Western banks, for instance, or possibly Iceland’s desperate bailout appeal to Russia – a Nato member putting financial survival ahead of any security provisos.

Of course to draw firm conclusions at this point, with the economic crisis far from over, is a risky venture. But some patterns merit closer examination.

First, is the balance of power in the world really shifting eastwards? It is a question that has been the subject of much debate recently on the discussion programme The Forum which I host for the BBC World Service.

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