November 03, 2017

Syria Summary - ISIS Loses Control Of Its Last Urban Refuge



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Today the Syrian Arab Army liberated the city of Deir Ezzor from ISIS. The last resistance ended over night. The remaining ISIS fighters tried to flee north across the Euphrates towards the area held by U.S. proxy forces. Most of them were not successful in their attempts. It will take another few days to remove the remaining improvised mines in the city and to secure the ammunition and weapons ISIS abandoned.

For five years a contingent of some 5-7,000 Syrian soldiers and policemen had held a part of Deir Ezzor city first against Jabhat al-Nusra and then against ISIS. They secured the life of some 100,000 civilian inhabitants. Many soldiers and civilians died. Despite intense attempts and U.S. air support ISIS did not manage to dislodge the Syrian government forces. Only two month ago a serious SAA attempt to relief the city from the outside was launched. It went remarkably well. The defense of Deir Ezzor and its relief deserve an epic novel.

With Deir Ezzor cleared the supply lines of the Syrian army are secured and the push along the Euphrates towards the last urban area held by ISIS can proceed.



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The twin-cities of Abu Kamal (al-Bukamal) in Syria and al-Qaim in Iraq are ISIS' last urban refuge. The cities are on the south site of the Euphrates with the important border crossing between them. Coming from the east Iraqi government troops retook the al-Qaim crossing today. They now control the border and are breaking into the city proper. Syrian government forces approach Abu Kamal from the north-west and from south-east. These forces still have to cross some 30 kilometers of desert area. ISIS had prepared strong defense lines and the SAA progress was slower than hoped. During the last three days the Russian air force has flown a strong bombing campaign against those ISIS lines. The Lebanese Hizbullah has re-injected several thousand fighters into Syria to push the campaign. The Iraqi and Syrian forces are tightly coordinating and will move together to take Abu Kamal during the next two or three days.

The U.S. proxy forces north of the Euphrates announced that they had taken several oil-fields north of the river and were also progressing towards Abu Kamal. But there was little if any fighting. Instead the U.S. is bribing the local tribes in the area with Saudi money. These tribes had earlier sworn allegiance to ISIS and were part of its forces. When they switch sides the U.S. claims to be in control of the land they hold. The Syrian government and its allies fear that the U.S. is currently trying a similar stunt with the whole city of Bukamal itself. It could then claim to have control over the border crossing towards Iraq and severe that important line of communication. A race is on to prevent that.

Two reliable journalists, Ibrahim Al Amin of Al-Akhbar and Elijam Magnier of Al-Rai report (auto-translated) that a high level CIA official recently visited Damascus to inquire about missing U.S. intelligence agents. The official asserted the U.S. has no design for permanent bases in Syria and is only there to defeat ISIS. The official did not say how many additional years "defeating ISIS" would take.

Damascus is extremely suspicious of any U.S. design on Syria and will not let down its guard. The senior U.S. intelligence official was not received by higher Syrian government officials. Damascus demands an open diplomatic exchange with Washington.

The Iraqi government has reestablished its rule over the country. It insists on its national sovereignty and central control of the country. The Kurdish region in the north will have to agree with Baghdad's central control over the borders and foreign relations. If it does not submit the Iraqi Kurds will find themselves in a war with the Iraqi army which they are sure to lose. Baghdad will not be open to Iranian or U.S. control.

The Syrian government is likewise determined to regain control over the whole country. There will be no Turkish, Kurdish, Jordanian or Israeli zones but one Syria. The war will continue until that is achieved. Russian suggestions of a federation of the country have been rejected. Moscow reportedly accepted that position.

The situation in other parts of Syria has changed little over the last few weeks. The Turkish forces in Idleb have hunkered down in defensive position around the Kurdish area of Efrin. Syrian government forces prepare for, but have not yet launched, a wider Idleb campaign to dislodge the al-Qaeda forces currently controlling the governate. The Kurdish forces in the north-east have been told to peacefully move back to their original areas. Should they not do so, in futile hope of continued U.S. support, they will be attacked and defeated by the Syrian state and its allies.

2017 has seen the end of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. 2018 will see the end of al-Qaeda in Syria. 2019 will hopefully be the year that the Kurdish expansion and all foreign designs on Syria will have been defeated.

PS:

A small anecdote reflects the end of the "moderate rebels" propaganda scheme. A U.S. trained Syrian opposition movie director recently faked an assassination attempt on himself. He wanted to blame the Syrian regime and to gain more money for future propaganda fake productions. The Guardian and other #fakenews outlets had fallen for it: Syrian film-maker making prison torture movie survives 'assassination attempt'. It was all a stunt like most of the stuff the "rebels" produced. It seems that such work, which for years was sold as unassailable "truth" to western audiences, has finally found a proper end.

Posted by b on November 3, 2017 at 9:57 UTC | Permalink

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