Scott Morrison's announcement on vaccinations is par for the course for this "flat track bully", but that's not to say it won't help him in any potential leadership tussle, writes Darrin Barnett.

In cricket, a flat track bully is a top order batsman who only puts easy runs on the board by delivering against weak opposition.

So far in the Abbott Government, Scott Morrison fits the bill. He has capitalised on a race to the bottom in border protection against an Opposition that basically didn't want the fight. Asylum seekers have little in the way of power or influence.

This week Morrison has seemingly kept to form with a divisive yet popular decision to withhold Commonwealth money from those who choose not to vaccinate their children.

The question is whether this week's announcement is just more easy runs against weak opposition. Or is there room for complexity and persuasion in the public debate over vaccinating your kids?

For Morrison - the former Tourism Australia boss whose contribution to the national lexicon before entering politics was the infamous "Where the bloody hell are you?" campaign - the question is now far more, "Where the bloody hell are you going?"

The issue of non-vaccinated children is relatively small but growing - up from 15,000 to 39,000 in the past decade.

The Government has announced that parents would no longer receive childcare and family tax payments worth up to $15,000 a child from the start of next year.

There are concerns it will target the poor and force them into a making a choice against their convictions, but this is balanced by a solid and popular argument for the greater good.

This is an argument Morrison can win on the facts.

Vaccinations almost always work and they are almost always safe.

That said, we cannot protect newborns as immunisation takes time, while the chronically ill and those who are allergic cannot be protected, so fear in the community is high.

Of course, the fact that Prime Minister Tony Abbott the climate sceptic is arguing the merits of scientific consensus, and Morrison is lobbying for the protection of children after overseeing the mandatory detention of kids in immigration detention is a little conflicted to say the least. Yet much depends on how this is played from here.

After a successful campaign to Stop the Boats, Morrison has now been sent to social services to lighten his image.

Using his new social services portfolio to face up to web-certified quacks and hippies means easy runs.

But the reality is the Minister will face more serious questions about society's right to force parents into particular behaviours.

There are serious concerns over whether this is merely a populist witch hunt and there is a strong argument for a broad public education campaign on the benefits of vaccination to underpin the reforms.

Morrison was criticised for his bold lack of transparency in Operation Sovereign Borders, at first holding only weekly media briefings and then not at all, while avoiding questions in Parliament due to them pertaining to "Operational Matters" that were strictly military in nature.

In may ways, politics is the art of seeing what you can get away with and the Minister again tried it on for size this week.

He point blank refused to answer a legitimate question about which religious group would be exempt from the new rules around immunisations.

His reasoning was because people might try to convert to that religion in order to buck the system.

And just in case we missed the menacing tone, he added, "If that gets abused, we will shut that down too".

He may as well have said it's an operational matter.

For a bloke allegedly trying to soften his image, it's a poor start.

But with polls out this week confirming Abbot and Hockey are doing laps of the toilet bowl, waiting for someone to push the flush button, Morrison might be singing to a different audience.

Abbott and Hockey have painted themselves into a corner they can't get out of without dipping into reserves of political capital they don't currently possess.

Sure, they wouldn't go quietly, but the murmurings in Canberra are rising and Morrison's name is being mentioned more and more by the week.

That's not to say he is being disloyal - but it's also true that any characterisation of him includes the word ambitious. And events may well be contriving to open up a path for Morrison to the Lodge.

Hockey, once seen by some as the heir apparent, has dived so low he may never resurface.

Malcolm Turnbull, somewhat bafflingly derided as a leftie after making a sizeable fortune in private enterprise, is deeply unpopular within his own party and would probably already be in the Lodge if he was to be the next captain.

While Julie Bishop is somewhat of a media darling, it is as yet unclear whether the party would embrace a woman as leader, particularly one seen internally as having failed to protect Abbott in times of need.

Another strong wind blowing is the capricious breeze of Sydney talkback radio. Morrison is receiving a rails run from 2GB shock jock Ray Hadley as a regular guest. Hadley's stablemate and rival, Alan Jones, on the other hand, is strictly an Abbott loyalist.

The talkback factor becomes even more significant in light of this week's announcement by Queensland station 4BC to dump their on-air line-up in favour of syndication of Hadley and Jones.

The high stakes game of influence manipulation between Hadley and Jones will now rise significantly - and they will likely battle over their respective political champions.

If the flat-track bully Morrison can prove he has the game to take it up to sterner opposition, there will be extremely interesting weeks ahead.

Darrin Barnett is a former Canberra Press Gallery journalist and press secretary to prime minister Julia Gillard. He is now a fellow of the McKell Institute.