*** My conversation with Doc’s Sports handicapper Raphael Esparza (@VSIdocsports) is available below. Esparza will join me each week during the season to discuss all the Pac-12 games …

The Hotline sees an Oregon loss this week in Tempe, and we see it from both directions: Looking down from 30,000 feet and looking up through the details of personnel, schemes, matchups and trends.

First, the broader view:

No team in the 12-school era has gone undefeated in conference play.

Is this Oregon team good enough to reach a threshold that Oregon ’12, Oregon ’14, Stanford ’15 and Washington ’16 couldn’t attain?

We’re skeptical.

And if the Ducks aren’t good enough to go undefeated, their loss must come this week or next.

And it’s not coming in the Civil War.

That line of reasoning — if you could even call it reasoning — likely won’t satisfy Hotline readers. Which is fine. It will all be clear by 8 p.m. Saturday.

But for those seeking concrete evidence for an upset, we’re happy to go granular …

Style of play: Herm Edwards manages the game like he’s in the NFL. His approach is a bit more conservative with regard to play-calling on third down (live to play the next series), to possession counts and to field position. That’s one reason the Sun Devils are +15 in turnover margin under his watch.

Edwards’ goals — shorten the game but enhance ASU’s chances for victory — might seem incongruous, but they’re aligned.

He wants a fourth-quarter game, where one big play or bad blunder frames the outcome.

And no team in the conference has more experience in close games … no team does a better job remaining patient … than ASU.

Matchups: Oregon’s offensive front has a significant advantage on the line of scrimmage, but ASU’s linebackers and defensive backs are athletic, active and opportunistic.

They fill running lanes and tackle in space and will challenge Oregon to stick with its running game despite early struggles.

Lure the Ducks into a one-dimensional approach, with a heavy reliance on Justin Herbert, and ASU’s job becomes vastly easier.

Flip the matchup, and the Sun Devils possess the playmakers to stress an Oregon defense that allowed more than 30 points to each Washington school.

In fact, they have a better one-two playmaking punch, in tailback Eno Benjamin and receiver/returner Brandon Aiyuk, than does Oregon.

Aiyuk has emerged as one of the best big-play threats in the conference — a mini-version of N’Keal Harry — and Benjamin is more than capable of producing both tough yards and big gains.

Then add to the mix freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has won games with his arm and his legs.

Daniels has been overwhelmed only once, at Utah — in an environment, and against a defense, that he won’t face again — and he should be completely at ease Saturday under the spotlight.

Finally, the timing: The Ducks are vulnerable, not so much in personnel as mentality.

They’re cruising through the conference, they’re in the playoff chase, and they’re a huge favorite against an unranked team that has dropped four in a row and just lost to Oregon State.

If anything can undermine the Ducks’ sense of urgency — their level of healthy fear — it’s facing a team that just lost to the Beavers.

But that’s not all.

The Ducks beat Washington State with 100 yards in penalties.

They walloped USC with 157 yards in penalties.

They are No. 74 in the country in penalties per game and No. 119 in the penalty yards per game.

When you’re sloppy and you win, there’s no desperation to self-correct … until it’s too late.

The Huskies and Cougars pushed Oregon to the brink.

The Trojans stumbled all over themselves.

Arizona simply isn’t good enough.

But the Sun Devils won’t beat themselves, they have the playmakers to keep pace, and they will push everything into a final, whirling five minutes, when management and mistakes tip the balance and Oregon’s dreams die, once again, in the desert.

Last week: 4-1

Season: 34-35

Five-star special: 6-6

All picks against the spread.

Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (for entertainment purposes only, or not)

Cal (+2.5) at Stanford: Best team is the one on the sideline: Combined all the injured starters, and you could form an impressive lineup. Our assumption is that Chase Garbers won’t play for the Bears, and the edge therefore tilts to Stanford. It’s easier to envision the Cardinal mustering 17 or 20 points behind Davis Mills than it is to picture Cal getting there with Devon Modster. Pick: Stanford.

UCLA (+13.5) at USC: The conference wants a USC victory on multiple levels: An 8-4 finish would provide Utah and Oregon with a resume boost in the playoff chase; and it would, potentially, convince the university to bring back Clay Helton, which is the dream of every USC competitor. We like the Bruins to foil all those plans, even though they don’t have comparable personnel at any position. Why? Just cause. Pick: UCLA.

Oregon (-14) at Arizona State: See above. That is all. Pick: ASU.

Utah (-22.5) at Arizona: We don’t view the Utes as susceptible to a letdown this week because of their overwhelming superiority at the line of scrimmage. The pocket around Arizona’s quarterback (Grant Gunnell or Khalil Tate) will collapse at the snap of the ball. Meanwhile, Mr. Efficient, Tyler Huntley, will slice up an Arizona defense that has allowed 107 points in its past two home games. Senior Day for the Wildcats will be one to forget. Pick: Utah.

Oregon State (+10.5) at Washington State: Potentially the game of the week, with each team needing one victory for a bowl berth. Add the daunting rivalry challenges next week, and urgency will be stratospheric on both sidelines. The offenses are better than the defenses, and the quarterbacks are in rhythm. If the weather holds, the total (76.5 points) will be in jeopardy early in the fourth quarter. Pick: Oregon State.

Washington (-14) at Colorado: Difficult for us to believe that Steven Montez and Laviska Shenault will go out with a whimper, even against a Husky defense that has ramped up its pressure generation of late. At the same time, we’re not fooled by CU’s defense holding Stanford to 13 points — that was an outlier. Good chance this is closer than the number indicates. Great chance that it zooms past the total. Guaranteed that when it ends, it will be damn cold in Folsom. Pick: Colorado.

Straight-up winners: Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah, Washington State and Washington.

Five-star special: Arizona State. After all that brilliance laid out above — or all that drivel, depending on your view — we can’t pick any other team.

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