Despite second consecutive year of declines, report concludes the long-term outlook for solar energy production is positive

The solar energy sector lost 8,000 jobs in the US last year, the second consecutive year of declines, hit by uncertainty over the Trump administration’s energy and trade policies and a 30% tariff on imported solar panels, according to a report released on Tuesday.

But according to the Solar Foundation the future is still bright for solar. Despite the two-year dip, solar employment has grown 159%, from just over 93,000 to more than 242,000 jobs in all 50 states over the past nine years and the report concludes the long-term outlook for solar energy production is positive.

Solar, which currently represents about 2.4% of overall US electricity generation, already employs twice as many workers as the coal industry and almost five times as many workers as the nuclear industry.

States hit hardest by the slowdown were some of those with well-established solar industries, including California, with almost 10,000 job losses, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Arizona, while 29 states – many with less established solar penetration, including Florida, Texas and Illinois – continued to see job growth.

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“It’s an optimistic report despite the fact we’re seeing job declines over the past two years,” said Andrea Luecke, CEO of The Solar Foundation. “That’s because the macro-picture since we first started tracking solar jobs in 2010 has exploded.”

In terms of overall solar penetration, California remains in first place, with about 40% of US solar capacity and still has by far the most jobs nationwide. Florida now ranks second to California in total solar jobs, having overtaken Massachusetts.

According to Luecke, the long-term prospects for the solar industry remain “extremely bright” in the US and globally. Jobs growth remains positive, having added 100,000 jobs, an increase of roughly 70% over the past five years. By comparison, US employment as a whole has only grown 9.13% over the same period.

Despite the lack of support shown to the solar industry by the Trump industry, only the oil/ petroleum and natural gas industries in the energy sector have more employment than solar.

But the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported solar panels and policy uncertainty, coupled with uncertainties around solar policy state-to-state, has had a pronounced impact on the willingness of large-scale utilities to invest in solar, said the study author, Ed Gilliland.

“Prior to the tariffs set in January 2018, there was a lot of uncertainty in the industry, particularly among large energy utilities which delayed their projects and we saw less installation in the first three-quarters of the year.”

The authors found that the 30% tariff is unlikely to slow investment in the near future because China, the world’s leading manufacturer of solar modules, has already effectively cut prices by allowing incentives to lapse and causing demand to fall.

“The impact of the price of modules is no longer of real concern,” said Gilliland. “In fact we would have seen more job losses if China hadn’t scaled back on incentives.”

The study also found that even the Trump administration’s support of the coal industry, which lost about 20 working mines last year, has not necessarily been to the detriment of growth in the solar energy sector.

“I don’t think people believe the Trump administration’s plan to revive coal is the smartest idea out there, and we now even have leaders in fossil fuel sectors saying solar is competitive and we need to integrate renewables into our business model,” says Luecke.

According to Gilliland, recent policy goals issued by states to make energy consumption 100% renewable over the next three decades will also provide an important boost the sector. In September, California’s then governor, Jerry Brown, committed California to economy-wide carbon neutrality and 100% use of zero-carbon electricity by 2045.

“If people know this is where we’re going then they can begin to figure out how to get there,” Gilliland said.