Does Dave Bautista know something the rest of us don’t? The Guardians of the Galaxy beefcake, who reprises his role as green-skinned extraterrestrial Drax the Destroyer in James Gunn’s splendidly boisterous sequel, recently told Talk Is Jericho he’s sure we’ll see Spider-Man firmly ensconced in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) before too long. Discussing his fascination with the wallcrawler and fondness for the new version played by Britain’s Tom Holland, the former wrestler said he had high hopes for the upcoming Spider-Man: Homecoming following Marvel’s 2015 deal to share Sony’s rights to the superhero.

“I love that they’re staying so true to the comics with this whole series and I think that’s because Marvel Studios has gotten involved,” said Bautista. “I think before, I think it was Sony who had control. And I think they’re doing a partnership now, but I think they will – I don’t know this for sure – but I think they’re going to reacquire Spider-Man.”

The chances are that Bautista is simply engaged in wishful thinking here, but his comments certainly reflect the current air of general befuddlement surrounding Spider-Man on the big screen. Back in 2015, when Sony and Marvel struck their deal for the wallcrawler to join the MCU, the arrangement seemed like the most natural thing in the world. Sony had hit a brick wall with its Amazing Spider-Man series, starring Andrew Garfield as Spidey, while Marvel needed new superheroes to spice up its rapidly expanding shared universe.

The debut appearance of Holland’s new Spider-Man subsequently became a highlight of last year’s Captain America: Civil War, the teenage webslinger stealing Steve Rogers’ shield and bantering it out with his fellow costumed titans like he’d been an Avenger for decades. Anticipation is at a peak for Homecoming, which will feature Robert Downey Jr’s Iron Man taking on a mentoring role to the young Peter Parker, and crucially doesn’t appear to be retreading the tired origins story that we’ve already seen twice on the big screen in the past decade and a half.

And yet recently there have been suggestions that the tangled web of studio ownership over Spider-Man’s future has not been quite so painlessly unravelled as we might have thought. One sticking point is Sony’s apparent determination to press ahead with its own movies set in the “Spider-verse” – starring related villains and antiheroes who have appeared in the Spidey comics and who the studio therefore retains its longstanding rights to. A Venom movie is still being talked up, despite the wallcrawler’s traditional nemesis having been the source of several failed projects over the past decade or so. There have been rumblings of a Black Cat movie and even suggestions that the studio’s plans for a Sinister Six movie might not be entirely dead in the water.

I’ve said in the past that Sony could do worse than revisit Drew Goddard’s ambitious script for the latter – actually a Spider-Man movie rather than a Suicide Squad-style supervillain epic – once Spidey is firmly embedded in the MCU. But the more we see of Marvel’s take on Peter Parker, the more troublesome the concept of a Sony-led instalment becomes. Andrew Garfield was a perfectly decent Spider-Man for me, unfortunately stuck in a film series that tried to bring the superhero back to multiplexes a few years too soon. But Tom Holland’s version is funnier, sharper and crucially feels like he exists in the multicultural New York of 2017, rather than a Big Apple plucked straight from the 1960s. Spider-Man’s involvement in the MCU also means both studios are working with a larger toolbox, with infinite potential for shared future adventures with anyone from the Hulk to the Guardians of the Galaxy.

Sony may well be capable of spinning the wallcrawler into his own perfectly watchable instalments, but there’s a risk these might feel like a throwback now that he’s joined the MCU. And what if the studio ends up making a poor quality Spider-Man movie that damages perception of the character for both studios?

The key to the success of Marvel’s cinematic universe has been the Disney-owned studio’s ability to retain similar levels of quality control across all of its titles. There may be the odd dud from time to time – Ant-Man and Thor: The Dark World spring to mind – but generally speaking audiences can be confident that the next movie will be just as good as the one they saw last. There’s no guarantee this will continue to be the case with a complete different film-making team in charge.

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There’s also evidence that Sony doesn’t really understand the concept of the cinematic universe, judging by the studio’s decision to plough ahead with its own animated Spider-Man movie featuring the new comic-book wallcrawler, Miles Morales. All power to producers for introducing some diversity into the big-screen canon – Morales is a teenager who took over from Parker in print – but having a second version of the superhero in multiplexes clearly undermines the iteration seen in the MCU. Sony’s approach here seems to be closer to that of 20th Century Fox, whose X-Men movies often contradict each other because the studio is either incapable or unwilling to engage in the kind of joined-up thinking that makes Marvel’s universe such an impressively coherent body of work. Warner Bros is doing something similar with Batman, who exists in both animated Lego format and in the guise of Bat-fleck within the DCEU, a doubling-up that’s only served to highlight the impoverished standing of the live-action version.

There’s also a significant possibility that Spider-Man could be wrenched from the MCU altogether, just as we’ve gotten used to him adventuring with Iron Man and his pals, according to recent comments from Sony bigwig Amy Pascal. You do wonder, however, if the studio would truly risk finding itself cast as villainous party pooper, should Spidey’s appearances with his fellow Avengers prove as popular as they seem likely to.

It would all make much more sense for those of us who care about the wallcrawler – hence, perhaps Bautista’s wishful thinking – if Marvel did buy back the rights in their entirety. The alternative seems to be a deal that is temporarily good for both studios’ bottom lines but at best confusing for fans and at worst might see Spidey plunging back down to Earth, a studio puppet with his strings cut, just as we’ve got used to seeing him soar once more.