AP

What happens in a casino doesn’t stay in a casino. Everything is recorded, especially things that happen in the gaming area.

And so it’s no surprise, as reported by Robert Klemko of TheMMQB.com, that police have surveillance video that shows Ravens running back Ray Rice knocking his fiancée out at some point before video captured images of Rice dragging her unconscious body out of an elevator.

Klemko says, “Expect a suspension.” But Rice is a first-time violator. The Personal Conduct Policy primarily targets repeat offenders.

Complicating the present case is the apparent existence of video showing the act that triggers the violation. Still, plenty of players have been arrested for and/or found guilty of domestic assault. A suspension for a first offense remains very rare.

The broader question is whether the Ravens can continue to employ Rice in the wake of the unpublished video of the punch. They’ve paid him $25 million since July 2012; cutting him would result in $14.25 million hitting the cap, either all in 2014 (if he’s a pre-July 1 release) or $4.75 million in 2014 and $9.5 million in 2015 if he’s released as a post-June 1 transaction.

Even if the Ravens cut Rice before June 1 with a post-June 1 designation, they’d carry Rice’s full $8.75 million cap number until June, when $4 million in cap space would be created.