Senate votes for tax cut deal. What's route through House?

By Greg Sargent

In a victory for the White House, the Senate just passed a cloture motion on Obama's tax cut deal, getting it past a key procedural hurdle and moving it one step closer to law. This isn't the final straight up or down vote. It's just the vote to move foward with debate. But this one required 60 votes, so winning this one was crucial.

But this was, relatively speaking, the easy part. Can Dem leaders get the current deal through the House?

By all indications, the anger and opposition to the deal among House Democrats shows no sign of abating. At the same time, however, House Dem leaders have sent very clear signs that despite their own unhappiness with the deal, they believe it would be irresponsible to sink the compromise and have no intention of thwarting the President's will. What to do?

Here's the challenge for House Dem leaders right now, as I understand it: Come up with a way for Dem members to vent their disapproval of the deal, so they don't feel too stiffarmed and marginalized by the process, without it resulting in changes significant enough to cause Republicans to walk away. The deal is expected to clear the House with a combination of strong GOP support and some backing among moderate Dems. Tweaking the bill in a way that drives away Republicans could imperil its survival.

The result could be a situation in which Dems hold a vote on amendments to the bill that are likely to fail. House Dems are particularly angry about the deal's estate tax provision; Dem leaders could hold a vote amending that provision, allowing Dem members to register disapproval. But the amendment would likely be opposed by almost all Republicans and some moderate Dems. So it would likely lose.

But rank and file Dems would have had a chance to make their voices heard before the final vote passing the deal through the House.

This is only one scenario under consideration. House Dem leaders may insist on real changes to the overall deal itself. But giving angry Dems a way of expressing themselves appears to be the general direction in which things are headed, and it seems more and more likely that the deal will pass in roughly its current form.

UPDATE, 4:52 p.m.: The No votes were almost all Dems: Bernie Sanders, Jeff Bingaman, Russ Feingold, Kirsten Gillibrand, Sherrod Brown and Tom Udall. Jeff Merkley was not present but was also a No, so his vote would not have stopped the measure from succeeding. I'll bring you the roll call when it's available.

