I ventured out to a soybean field the other day to talk with a farmer about the effects of tariffs and President Donald Trump’s trade war.

I visited with John Kiefner, 54, on his farm outside Manhattan in Will County. Kiefner is a third-generation farmer with about 550 acres. When I arrived early Wednesday morning, Kiefner was loading hay onto a trailer.

Soybean prices have fallen sharply, to about $8.50 a bushel from about $10.50 in May. China imposed a 25 percent tariff on soybean imports effective July 6, largely in retaliation to the Trump administration’s tariffs on $34 billion worth of steel, aluminum and other goods the United States imported from China.

China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans. Illinois is the nation’s largest producer of soybeans. The average yield in Will County is 50 bushels an acre.

If prices do not rebound by harvest, farmers could face significant loss of value. But this year’s crop is insured, Kiefner said. Once farmers pay their premiums, they’re protected from heavy financial losses — for now.

“Once it dropped more than a dollar (per bushel), insurance picked up the cost,” Kiefner said. “Every penny we lose, an insurance company is making up. I want my income to come from China, not Washington (D.C.)”

Many share Kiefner’s view. Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, expressed similar sentiment July 9 on the CBS show “Face the Nation.”

“Here in the Midwest we believe in trade not aid,” Ernst said. “We don't want another welfare-type program going to our farmers. They want to produce and they want to sell their goods to markets.”

As prices drop, farmers will likely try to grow more soybeans to maintain income, Kiefner said. Or, they might switch to different crops that are more profitable.

“When the price drops … farmers try to grow more bushels,” he said. “Every farmer tries to grow more soybeans.”

Kiefner said his farm operation is diversified. About half his land — 250 acres — is soybeans. He also grows hay and pumpkins and raises chickens and honeybees.

The soybean tariffs affect many in the Southland. Soybeans accounted for 90,800 acres in Will County in 2011, according to the Illinois Soybean Association. That was nearly half the county’s 198,800 acres of farmland. The state produced 612 million bushels of soybeans last year.

Ted Slowik / Daily Southtown John Kiefner looks for weeds amid soybean plants in a field at his farm near Manhattan in Will County. Illinois is the nation's top producer of soybeans, and China is the world's largest importer of soybeans, contributing to concerns about tariffs and a growing trade war. John Kiefner looks for weeds amid soybean plants in a field at his farm near Manhattan in Will County. Illinois is the nation's top producer of soybeans, and China is the world's largest importer of soybeans, contributing to concerns about tariffs and a growing trade war. (Ted Slowik / Daily Southtown)

“The soybean value chain employs nearly 115,000 Illinoisans that generate $849 million in state and local tax revenue,” according to the ISA.

The transport of soybeans and other commodities creates economic impact in the trucking, rail and barge industries. Tariffs affect not just soybean farmers in Steger and Crete — they could impact jobs at intermodal facilities throughout the region.

If prices remain low at harvest, farmers may store more soybeans than they typically do — but there’s a cost to that.

To avoid paying tariffs, customers in China are buying soybeans from Brazil and Argentina instead of the United States.

Concern is growing. On July 10, Trump announced a list of 10 percent tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods. On Friday, CNBC aired an interview in which Trump said he was considering tariffs on the entire amount of Chinese imports to the United States last year — $505.5 billion.

“I'm ready to go to 500,” Trump told CNBC.

China exported $130 billion in goods to the United States last year, creating a trade deficit of $375 billion between the two countries, according to U.S. Department of Commerce data.

“The U.S. consumer has created the trade imbalance,” Kiefner said. Americans like to shop for cheap goods made in China. We seem to have a collective appetite for Amazon deals and stuff we didn’t know we wanted until we saw it online.

Until the personal income tax was created in 1913, tariffs were a primary source of revenue for the federal government. Since World War II, tariffs have accounted for a tiny fraction of federal revenue. The U.S. government collected $34.6 billion in customs duties and fees last year, according to an Associated Press report.

Many wonder how tariffs and the trade war might affect political support for Trump among farmers and others.

“A lot of young farmers are pro-Trump,” Kiefner said. “I kind of respect doing things differently,” adding that he voted for Libertarian Gary Johnson in 2016.

I think tariffs won’t have too much impact on the mid-term elections in November.

“They may have a bigger effect within a year, though,” Kiefner said.

If insurance companies suffer a financial hit at harvest time, they may apply increased pressure on Congress to act on tariffs before price guarantees for 2019 crops are set in February, Keifner said.

For now, the effects of a trade war are just another source of concern for farmers — along with weather, weeds, pests and rising equipment costs.

“We’ve seen our incomes slipping,” Kiefner said.

I asked Kiefner if this was the first time he’s had to deal with an international trade dispute in addition to routine farming matters. He said he remembers the grain embargo that former President Jimmy Carter enacted against the Soviet Union in 1980 in response to the Soviets’ invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

“Using grain as a weapon has never worked,” Keifner said.

In 1979, hundreds of farmers drove tractors from across the country to Washington, D.C. to protest agriculture policies. Farmers used to wield considerable political clout due to their influence on demand for such products as pickup trucks.

“Farmers are not as important to the economy as we used to be,” Kiefner said. “Half of America owns a pickup truck today.”

tslowik@tronc.com

Twitter @tedslowik