Thursday, October 20 Polls

IBD/TIPP

Trump (R) 41.2%

Clinton (D) 40.2%

Johnson (L) 7.3%

Stein (G) 4.8%

[Guts]

1.7% are for an “other”‘ candidate.

4.8% are undecided.

The poll was conducted from October 14-19.

The poll was surveyed by phone with 779 respondents.

[Demographics]

779 likely voters.

There are no party affiliation breakdowns in general, just the amount of each party supporting their candidate, so we will go straight to the Gallup averages (30.5% D, 27.75% R, 39.5% I). This is possible because we already know the sample size (779).



[Party Support for Each Candidate]

Support for each candidate is as follows:

Democrats Hillary Clinton (D) – 77% Donald Trump (R) – 7% Gary Johnson (L) – 7% Jill Stein (G) – 5% Undecided – 3% “Other” – 1%



Republicans Donald Trump (R) – 83% Hillary Clinton (D) – 6% Gary Johnson (L) – 5% Jill Stein (G) – 3% Undecided – 2% “Other” – 1%



Independents Donald Trump (R) – 43% Hillary Clinton (D) – 31% Gary Johnson (L) – 10% Jill Stein (G) – 7% Undecided – 6% “Other” – 2%



Some “yuge” things to point out:

As this election draws to a close, Hillary Clinton has remained stagnant at 77/78% of her own party’s support while Jill Stein and Gary Johnson have seized votes from within her own party (Stein has been attacking Clinton consistently over the last week on social media and layed off/agreed with Trump).

Stein has been seen positively for doing this by Trump supporters and received a 1-2% bump in support from Republicans (which has not hurt Trump at all, yet).

Trump support among Republicans has grown to 83% as more Republicans have made up their mind to support Trump. Only 2% of Republicans remain undecided.

Democrats have also made up their minds, as only 3% remain undecided. This is terrible news for Hillary Clinton, as she is relying on a heavy Democrat turnout to win this election.

Hillary Clinton has received a modest bump from the last Reuters poll with independents, gaining +8% and landing at 31% independent support. This is not enough; however, as Donald Trump has increased his lead with independents to +12% (up from +11%) over Hillary Clinton, due to a +9% bump which brings him to a total of 43% with independents. Both bumps, with Trump and Clinton, are due to a decline in support for Gary Johnson. Jill Stein seems to be fairing well still (although in 4th place) with independents, at 7%. Just 6% of independents are undecided now (down from 8% in Reuters/Ipsos), and this is not a good sign for Hillary Clinton. The majority of the 6% are likely to sit out or vote for Trump if the trends continue.



[Likely Voters & Party Affiliation]

Because party affiliation is unavailable in this sample, we can quickly calculate it from the averages from the last four Gallup polls.

Democrats [779*30.5%] = about 238 LV

Republicans [779*27.75%] = about 216 LV

Independents (779*39.5%] = about 308 LV ( 325 LV total with third party “other” ). Independents in this poll is also grouped with “other voters” so we can assume the remaining 17 people in this poll either responded wrong or belong to a third party (such as the Progressive Green Party or the Libertarian party, etc.). The amount of third party registered voters here is negligible and consistent with election norms.

).

[Math/Results/Verdict]

77% of Democrats support Clinton (238 likely voters x 77% = about 183 votes), 6% of Republicans support Clinton (216 likely voters x 6% = about 13 votes), and 31% of independents support Clinton (325 likely voters x 31% = about 101 votes) equaling 297 votes.

83% of Republicans support Trump (216 likely voters x 83% = about 179 votes), 7% of Democrats support Trump (238 likely voters x 7% = about 17 votes), and 43% of independents support Trump (325 likely voters x 43% = about 140 votes) equaling 336 votes.

12% of Democrats support Johnson and Stein (238 likely voters x 12% = about 29 votes), 8% of Republicans support Johnson and Stein (216 likely voters x 8% = about 17 votes), 17% of independents support Johnson and Stein (325 likely voters x 17% = about 55 votes) equaling 101 votes. There are 90 votes left out of this sample which accounts for 11%. It is important for me to note that these account for both undecided/unsure, other third party candidates, and people who are not voting. Most of these undecided are independents, while Democrats and Republicans are still undecided, but at a minimal rate.



Final Results

Donald Trump (R) 43.1%

Hillary Clinton (D) 38.1%

Johnson (L) & Stein (G) 13.0% Donald Trump leads Clinton by +5%!



[Verdict]

It is truly amazing that even a poll that shows Trump leading by a small margin is still using a larger sample of Democrats than Republicans and independents. While IBD/TIPP didn’t tell the public their demographic split/party affiliation, the sample size and Gallup averages gave a final result that showed the survey used an unrealistic amount of Democrats to put Clinton in a close second to Trump. This is simply not the case! From the data collected, and an accurate representation of the electorate, we see Trump’s lead is truly taking hold. Why else are Clinton staffers saying the polls will tighten over the next few weeks? Why else are Frank Luntz’s focus groups reacting negatively to the “Russian” explanation Hillary shills out for Wikileaks? How often are you hearing about Wikileaks being the Russian’s fault? This is having such a negative outcome for Clinton we can only hope that she keeps using that explanation!

This poll gives Trump a lead and it’s still biased toward Democrats!

Election day couldn’t come soon enough. #MAGA

(Note: As far as my analysis/credibility goes, I always round up numbers for both Trump and Clinton when determining support. I even use a sample that assumes more Democrats will turnout for Republicans. I simply reporting facts. And the facts show a Donald Trump lead. So liberals can shut up with their 538 “polls” forecasts. It’s just so funny that Real Clear Politics is always used when they use junk poll samples that over-sample Democrats and under-sample independents. The only way Trump loses this election is if he has it stolen from him. As we’ve seen in Project Veritas videos, they plan on doing just that with illegal aliens and voters casting multiple ballots in multiple counties and even states. Watch you polls!)