Having trouble making your Oscar picks? Below, we offer a closer look at predictors for a variety of Academy Awards races.

Best picture

First, as a recap, here are some stats on this year's best picture nominees:

Historical factors

What factors over the past decade have served as accurate predictors of the eventual best picture winner? Here's a look, sorted by highest to lowest correlation. The final column shows which of this year's nominees fall into each category, which should be taken as an encouraging sign for films toward the top of the chart and a negative for films near the bottom.

Best picture winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: also earned Oscar nomination for film editing? 100% AmSniper, Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation, Whiplash yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes also earned Oscar nomination for screenplay? 100% ALL EXCEPT Selma yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes had a Metascore > 79 ? 90% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Selma, Whiplash yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes had > 5 Oscar nominations that year? 90% AmSniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes also earned Oscar nomination for directing? 90% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes also earned at least one Oscar nomination for acting? 90% ALL EXCEPT Budapest and Selma yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes won DGA Award? 80% Birdman no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes won any SAG Award? 80% Birdman, Boyhood, ToE, Whiplash yes yes yes yes no yes yes no yes yes was rated R? 80% AmSniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Whiplash yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes no opened in October, November, or December? 80% ALL EXCEPT Boyhood and Budapest yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes no yes won PGA Award? 70% Birdman yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no no no won BFCA Critics Choice best picture award? 70% Boyhood yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes no no was the betting favorite according to oddsmakers? 70% Birdman yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes no no won BAFTA best picture? 60% Boyhood yes yes yes yes yes yes no no no no won Boston Society of Film Critics best picture? 60% NONE yes no yes no yes yes yes yes no no grossed over $100 million in U.S.? 50% AmSniper no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes also earned Oscar nomination for cinematography? 50% Birdman, Budapest no no yes yes yes yes yes no no no won Chicago Film Critics Association best picture? 50% Boyhood yes no no no yes no yes yes yes no had the highest Metascore among nominees? 40% Boyhood yes no yes no yes yes no no no no won a Golden Globe for best picture (either one)? 40% Boyhood, Budapest yes yes yes no no yes no no no no also earned multiple Oscar nominations for acting? 40% Birdman, Boyhood, Imitation, ToE yes no yes yes no no no no no yes earned the most Oscar nominations out of any film that year? 30% Birdman, Budapest no no no yes yes no yes no no no won NY Film Critics Circle best picture? 30% Boyhood no no yes no yes no yes no no no had a Metascore > 89 ? 30% Boyhood yes no no no yes no yes no no no was an original story (not a sequel/biopic/adaptation)? 30% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Whiplash no no yes no yes no no no yes no was on more critic top-10 lists than any other nominee? 30% Boyhood yes no no no yes no yes no no no had the highest box office gross among nominees? 20% AmSniper no no no no no yes no yes no no won National Board of Review best picture? 20% NONE no no no no no yes yes no no no won National Society of Film Critics best picture? 20% NONE no no no no yes no no no no yes had a producer with a previous best picture Oscar win? 10% AmSniper, Budapest, Selma no no no no no no no no no yes had a director with a previous film that won best picture? 10% AmSniper no no no no no no no no no yes won Los Angeles Film Critics Association best picture? 10% Boyhood no no no no yes no no no no no won Toronto Film Critics Association best picture? 10% Boyhood no no no no no no yes no no no had the lowest Metascore among nominees? 10% AmSniper, ToE no no no no no no no no yes no is labeled a comedy on IMDb? * 10% Birdman, Budapest no no yes no no no no no no no grossed less than $25 million in the U.S.? 0% Whiplash no no no no no no no no no no

Here are the totals of positive indicators (the green percentages above) and negative indicators (red) for each of this year's nominees. Note that we are also treating the BAFTA winner as a positive indicator (despite that 60% accuracy rate) since it has been an accurate predictor for six straight years. The actual net number is arbitrary—since we could have added (or removed) individual indicators from the list above—though it does suggest the relative strength of each film.

Best director

The directors contending for an Oscar this year are Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game). Birdman's Iñárritu is currently the Vegas favorite, with Linklater not far behind.

Best director winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: directed a film nominated for best picture Oscar that year? 100% ALL EXCEPT Foxcatcher yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes was nominated for a DGA award that year? 100% ALL EXCEPT Foxcatcher yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes directed a film nominated for a film editing Oscar that year? 90% Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes directed a film nominated for at least one acting Oscar that year? 80% ALL EXCEPT Budapest yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes directed a film nominated for a cinematography Oscar that year? 80% Birdman, Budapest yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes no won DGA award that year? 80% Birdman yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes directed a film that won the PGA award that year? 70% Birdman yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes no won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 70% Boyhood yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes no won the BAFTA award that year? 60% Boyhood yes no yes no yes yes yes no yes no won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 60% Boyhood no no yes no yes no yes yes yes yes directed a film that won a WGA award that year? 50% (announced 2/14) no no no no yes yes yes yes yes no won the Golden Globe that year? 50% Boyhood yes no no no no yes no yes yes yes was a first-time Oscar nominee? 40% Imitation no no yes yes yes yes no no no no had the highest-grossing film among director nominees? 40% Imitation yes no no no no yes no yes yes no won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Boyhood no no no no yes yes yes yes no no won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Boyhood yes no no no yes yes no no yes no was a previous Oscar winner? 30% NONE no yes no no no no yes no no yes had the best-reviewed film among director nominees? 30% Boyhood no no yes no yes yes no no no no won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 30% Birdman no no no no yes no no yes yes no won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 30% Boyhood yes no no no yes no yes no no no won National Board of Review award that year? 20% NONE no no no no no no no yes yes no won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 10% Boyhood no no no no yes no no no no no

Best original screenplay

Up for the Academy Award this year are Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness (The Grand Budapest Hotel), E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman (Foxcatcher), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo (Birdman), and Richard Linklater (Boyhood). Note that Birdman's screenplay doesn't meet the eligibility requirements for a WGA Award, so it is the sole Oscar nominee here not also competing at the WGAs. (Last year, 12 Years a Slave was in the same position and wound up winning the Oscar for adapted screenplay.)

Best original screenplay winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 90% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no was nominated for a WGA award that year? 80% ALL EXCEPT Birdman yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes won WGA award that year? 80% (announced Feb. 14) yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes won the BAFTA award that year? 70% Budapest no yes no yes yes no yes yes yes yes won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 70% Birdman yes yes yes yes no no yes yes yes no was a first-time Oscar nominee? 50% Nightcrawler no no no yes yes yes yes yes no no won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Budapest yes no no no yes no yes no yes no had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 30% Boyhood yes no no yes yes no no no no no won the Golden Globe that year? 30% Birdman yes yes yes no no no no no no no was a previous Oscar winner? 20% NONE no yes yes no no no no no no no won National Board of Review award that year? 20% NONE no no no no no no yes no no yes won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 20% Budapest yes no no no no no no no no yes won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 0% Budapest no no no no no no no no no no won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 0% Budapest no no no no no no no no no no won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 0% Budapest no no no no no no no no no no

Best adapted screenplay

This year's adapted screenplay nominees include Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice), Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Jason Hall (American Sniper), Anthony McCarten (The Theory of Everything), and Graham Moore (The Imitation Game). Complicating matters a bit is the fact that every organization other than the Academy considered Chazelle's Whiplash screenplay to be original rather than adapted. Note that The Theory of Everything was not eligible for a WGA Award.

Best adapted screenplay winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 100% ALL EXCEPT Vice yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes was nominated for a WGA award that year? 90% AmSniper, Imitation, Whiplash no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes won WGA award that year? 80% (announced Feb. 14) no yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes was a first-time Oscar nominee? 60% ALL EXCEPT Vice yes yes no yes yes no no yes yes no won USC Scripter award that year? 60% Imitation yes yes yes yes no yes yes no no no won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 60% NONE yes no no yes no yes yes yes no yes had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 50% Whiplash yes yes no yes no yes no no no yes won the Golden Globe that year? 50% NONE no no no yes no yes yes no yes yes won National Board of Review award that year? 50% Vice no no yes yes no yes yes no no yes won the BAFTA award that year? 40% ToE no no no yes no yes no no yes yes won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 40% NONE yes no no yes no yes no no no yes won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 30% NONE no yes no yes no no no no no yes was a previous Oscar winner? 20% NONE no no yes no no no yes no no no won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% NONE no no no yes no no no no no yes won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 20% NONE no no no no no no yes no no yes won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 20% NONE no no no yes no no yes no no no

Best film editing

This year's nominated editors are Joel Cox & Gary Roach (American Sniper), Sandra Adair (Boyhood), Barney Pilling (The Grand Budapest Hotel), William Goldenberg (The Imitation Game), and Tom Cross (Whiplash).

Best film editing winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: was nominated for an ACE Eddie award that year? 100% ALL yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 80% ALL yes yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes won an ACE Eddie award that year? 80% Boyhood, Budapest no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes had their film also nominated for best directing Oscar? 70% Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation yes no no yes yes yes no yes yes yes had their film also nominated for best cinematography Oscar? 60% Budapest yes no yes yes yes yes no no no yes won the BAFTA award that year? 50% Whiplash no yes no yes yes yes yes no no no had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 30% Boyhood no no no yes yes yes no no no no was a first-time Oscar nominee? 30% Boyhood, Budapest, Whiplash no no no no yes yes no no yes no was a previous Oscar winner? 30% AmSniper, Imitation no no yes no no no no yes no yes

Best cinematography

This year's field includes Roger Deakins (Unbroken), Ryszard Lenczewski and Lukasz Zal (Ida), Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman), Dick Pope (Mr. Turner), and Robert D. Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel). Only Lubezki has won an Oscar before.

Best cinematography winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: was nominated for an ASC award that year? 90% ALL EXCEPT Ida yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 80% Birdman, Budapest yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no no yes had their film also nominated for best directing Oscar? 70% Birdman, Budapest yes yes yes no yes yes yes no no yes had their film also nominated for best editing Oscar? 70% Budapest yes yes yes no yes yes yes no no yes won the ASC award that year? 50% (announced 2/15) yes no no yes no yes yes no yes no won the BAFTA award that year? 40% Birdman yes yes no no no yes no no yes no had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 30% MrTurner yes no no no no yes no yes no no was a first-time Oscar nominee? 30% Budapest, Ida no no no no yes yes no yes no no was a previous Oscar winner? 30% Birdman no no yes no no no yes no no yes won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 30% Birdman, Budapest yes no no yes no no no no no yes won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 30% NONE no no no no no yes yes yes no no won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% Birdman yes no no no no no no yes no no won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% MrTurner no no no no no yes yes no no no won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 10% Birdman yes no no no no no no no no no

Best animated feature

Nominees include Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, and The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. This year's race is a bit harder to predict than in the past thanks to the Academy's snub of The LEGO Movie, which meets many of the criteria established by previous winners.

Best animated feature winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: was produced in the USA (at least partially)? 100% BigHero6, Boxtrolls, HTTYD2 yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes won the BAFTA award for best animated film? 100% NONE yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 80% NONE yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes won the Golden Globe award for best animated film? 75% HTTYD2 yes yes no yes yes yes yes no won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 71% NONE no no yes yes yes yes yes had the highest Metascore among nominees? 70% Kaguya no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes was the highest-grossing film among nominees? 70% BigHero6 yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes no won the PGA award for best animated feature? 67% NONE yes no no yes yes yes yes no yes won the Annie award for best animated feature? 60% HTTYD2 yes no yes no yes no yes no yes yes won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 60% Kaguya no no yes yes no no yes yes yes yes won National Board of Review award that year? 60% HTTYD2 no no yes yes yes yes yes no no yes won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Kaguya no no no no no yes yes yes yes no won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 33% NONE no no no no yes no yes no yes

Best documentary feature

This year's documentary nominees are Citizenfour, Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth, and Virunga. The most notable Oscar documentary snub, Life Itself, has received a decent number of awards elsewhere on the awards circuit.

Best documentary winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: was released in theaters prior to Oscar nominations? 80% ALL EXCEPT Salt yes yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes grossed more than $2 million in the U.S.? 70% Citizenfour yes yes no yes no yes no yes yes yes won an ACE award for best-edited documentary that year? 60% Citizenfour yes yes no no yes yes no yes yes no won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 60% NONE yes yes no no yes yes no yes yes no won National Board of Review award that year? 60% NONE no yes no no yes yes no yes yes yes mostly concerns subject matter inside the USA? 50% Citizenfour, Vivian yes no yes yes no yes no yes no no won a PGA award that year? 43% NONE no yes no no yes yes no was nominated for an Intl. Doc. Assoc. (IDA) award that year? 40% Citizenfour, Salt, Vivian no yes no no no yes yes no no yes won a WGA award that year? 40% (announced 2/14) no yes no yes yes no yes no no no won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Citizenfour no no no no yes yes no yes no yes had the highest Metascore among nominees? 30% Virunga no no no yes yes yes no no no no was about war, policy, or politics? 30% Citizenfour, Vietnam no no no yes no no yes yes no no was about nature? 30% Virunga no no no no yes no no yes yes no was about art, music, or other creative endeavors? 30% Salt, Vivian yes yes no no no yes no no no no won the IDA award that year? 30% Citizenfour no yes no no no yes no no no yes won a DGA award that year? 30% Citizenfour no yes no yes yes no no no no no won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 30% Citizenfour no no no yes no yes no yes no no won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% NONE no no no no yes yes no no no no won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 20% NONE no no no no yes no yes no no no won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 20% Citizenfour no no no yes no yes no no no no won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 10% NONE no no no no no yes no no no no

Best foreign-language film

Looking for a pattern in the Academy's choices for top foreign film? You certainly won't find one in the table below, thanks in large part to the fact that so many worthy films are often barred from the nominee pool due to the Academy's inscrutable procedures. This year's nominees, for what it's worth, are Poland's Ida, Russia's Leviathan, Estonia's Tangerines (which has not opened in the USA), Mauritania's Timbuktu, and Wild Tales from Argentina.

Best foreign-language film winner ... 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to: was from a European country? 60% Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines yes yes no yes no no yes yes no yes was from a country that had won a foreign-language Oscar before? 60% Leviathan, WildTales yes yes no yes yes no no yes no yes was released in the U.S. prior to the Oscar nominations? 50% Ida, Leviathan yes yes yes no no no no yes no yes won the Golden Globe award for best foreign-language film? 50% Leviathan yes yes yes yes no no no no no yes had the highest Metascore among nominees? 30% Leviathan yes yes yes no no no no no no no was nominated for another Oscar that year? 30% Ida no yes yes no no no no no no yes won the BAFTA award for best foreign-language film? 30% Ida yes yes no no no no no yes no no won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 30% NONE no yes yes no no no no no no yes won National Board of Review award that year? 30% WildTales no yes yes no no no no no no yes won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 30% Ida no yes yes no no no no yes no no won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 20% NONE no yes yes no no no no no no no won London Film Critics Circle award that year? 20% Leviathan no no yes no no no no yes no no won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% NONE no yes yes no no no no no no no won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 10% NONE no yes no no no no no no no no won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 10% Ida no no no no no no no yes no no won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 10% NONE no yes no no no no no no no no

More Oscar coverage to come

Check back next week (a few days before the February 22nd ceremony) for a roundup of final Oscar predictions from dozens of industry experts. In the meantime, give us your own Oscar picks, or take a closer look at the history of the Academy's best picture selections.