The new health care law has hurt Pryor and helped Cotton in the polls. | AP Photos Poll: Pryor trails Cotton in Arkansas

Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor trails his Republican challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton, by seven points among likely voters in Arkansas, 48 percent to 41 percent, according to a new poll from a conservative group that says his support of the health care reform law is costing him.

The survey, shared exclusively with POLITICO, was conducted Friday and Saturday for the Citizens United Political Victory Fund by Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway of the polling company, Inc./WomanTrend.


Cotton is ahead among independents by 21 points and among women by 4 points.

( PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)

The last published numbers from this marquee match-up came in the midst of October’s government shutdown and before the national focus turned to the disastrous rollout of Obamacare, which Pryor voted for. Four polls taken that month showed the race within the margin of error.

In this latest survey, 62 percent of those polled have an unfavorable view of the health care law — 56 percent strongly so.

“Mark Pryor is synonymous with Obamacare and Obamacare is synonymous with making life worse for the American people,” said David N. Bossie, president of Citizens United. “That’s why Pryor is losing to Cotton in the Arkansas Senate race.”

( Also on POLITICO: Tom Cotton blasts NRSC attack on Mark Pryor)

Pryor deputy campaign manager Erik Dorey pointed to polls conducted for Citizens United by another firm last year that wound up being far off the mark.

“It’s no surprise that Congressman Cotton’s special interest backers have commissioned a bogus poll that wildly misses where we know this race stands,” he emailed. “Mark is ahead, and Arkansans still have a lot to learn about Cotton’s reckless votes to gut Medicare and Social Security, blow up the Farm Bill and end affordable student loans.”

Pryor, considered by many to be the most vulnerable of the incumbents running for reelection, is viewed favorably by 44 percent of Arkansas voters and unfavorably by 39 percent. The poll found that only one-third of independents view Pryor favorably and 52 percent see him in a negative light.

Cotton, who went to Afghanistan and Iraq in the Army before being elected to the House last year, is still relatively unknown. He’s viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 26 percent of likely voters.

Arkansas has trended increasingly red. President Barack Obama won only 37 percent of voters there last year, and this poll shows he’s viewed favorably by 36 percent.

The poll, conducted by live interviewers, surveyed 400 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percent. The sample was 29 percent self-identifying Republicans, 32 percent Democratic and 35 percent independents.

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