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Some city officials, including several councillors, seem to think this is simply a bit of short-term pain before the Confederation Line opens in 2018. They are confident that once light rail arrives, all of the city’s traffic problems will be solved. Some councillors behave as though the light rail line will be greeted by consumers like it’s a new iPhone or the latest Star Wars movie.

In fact, the new system won’t be a game-changer that alters the price equation for consumers. Even with the arrival of light rail, the financial and time cost of public transit will remain high for many riders.

For one thing, as Peter Raaymakers of TransitOttawa.ca pointed out in a recent op-ed in the Citizen, phase one of the Confederation Line is an unfinished system and therefore offers incomplete benefits. People travelling from beyond Tunney’s Pasture and Blair Station, who are currently able to get all the way downtown on one bus, will now have to transfer from bus to rail. When they arrive downtown, the stops will be further apart, further north and five or six stories underground. In other words, it will take most people longer to get to work.

If the city continues to raise fares, which appears likely, then both the financial and chronological cost of transit will be higher. Beyond an initial spike due to the novelty of the new system, a sustained increase in ridership is unlikely.

It’s difficult to forecast the price of gas. But the time it takes to drive will go down when light rail is introduced, because the extra lane that’s been added to the Queensway, which will be used by buses during construction of the Confederation Line, will be opened up to vehicles once light rail arrives.