What do you do when a government proposes a policy solution to a “crisis” that doesn’t exist? On Monday, the Queen announced the “electoral integrity bill”, which would require voters to show an approved photo ID before they vote in local and general elections, in order to address concerns about electoral fraud.

The only problem is, electoral fraud in this country – particularly voter impersonation – barely exists. And more importantly, it’s negligible compared with the number of voters who will be turned away by imposing mandatory ID requirements at the ballot box.

Of the 44.6 million voters eligible to vote in the 2017 general election, there were 28 allegations of in-person voter fraud and only one conviction. That’s a 0.000063% rate of voter impersonation. Conversely, when the Conservative government ran ID trials in five local election areas last year, 340 voters were turned away – 0.14% of eligible voters – because they did not have appropriate ID. About 2,000 voters were turned away in further ID trials in 10 areas this year, and 750 did not return. Given that a person is thousands of times more likely to be turned away from voting than to be committing voter fraud, perhaps this government should relabel its proposal the “disenfranchisement bill”.

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No one would argue that electoral fraud is an insignificant issue. When people have fought and died to secure the right to vote, it’s appropriate to be concerned about voter impersonation and voter deception. But it’s equally important to be concerned about barriers that suppress voter engagement and full political participation. The sanctity of voting is not just about an honest vote; it’s also about a democratic vote.

And yet the high number of people in this country who are not registered to vote – particularly ethnic minorities (a shocking 28% of British black African people are not registered) – barely gets mentioned, let alone addressed in government policy. This should be alarming given we could soon face a third general election in less than five years.

In addition, the requirement to produce photo ID at the ballot box is not without pitfalls. To begin with, it’s neither mandatory nor universal to have ID in this country. So when a government unexpectedly introduces mandatory ID requirements there could be harsh consequences, especially for vulnerable people or those from disadvantaged backgrounds. We should not forget that under the Conservatives’ “hostile environment” policies, thousands of British black people lost their jobs, their homes and access to life-saving NHS treatment because they did not possess newly introduced mandatory ID documents (eg passports) to prove their citizenship.

The take-up of mandatory voter IDs (particularly before an imminent general election) will not be straightforward. Some 11 million citizens do not posses a passport or driving licence. Not only does this reflect a socio-economic cause – with poorer groups less likely to own ID (those who can’t afford a foreign holiday or a car) – it also reflects a racialised pattern. Younger (age 17-30) black and minority groups are 15% less likely to own driving licences than their white counterparts. And it’s not just about photo ID: women, ethnic minorities, Gypsy, Roma and Irish travellers, young people and those in temporary accommodation or homeless are also less likely to find their national insurance numbers.

The government is well aware of the risks of voter dropout among vulnerable and disadvantaged groups if they roll out mandatory IDs. In fact, the whole point of undertaking a second voter trial was to address the concerns raised by civil society organisations about the lack of equality impact considerations. And yet the selection of the 10 pilot areas for the 2019 voter ID trials – almost all with low ethnic-minority populations – revealed a tone-deaf response to the impact on diverse or disadvantaged communities. In addition, Electoral Commission research has shown that any change of rules about voter ID is less likely to be known by younger and older groups as well as ethnic minorities.

So why is Boris Johnson’s government introducing mandatory voter ID requirements, given the overwhelming evidence that marginalised and disadvantaged groups are more likely to be turned away from voting booths? Fraud is not a top concern among voters.

Suffice to say, a government solving an electoral “crisis” that doesn’t exist, at the expense of preventing specific demographic groups from voting, raises deep questions about who, exactly, is committing election fraud.

• Dr Zubaida Haque is deputy director of the Runnymede Trust

• This article was amended on 23 October 2019 because an earlier version referred to 44.6 million votes being cast in the 2017 general election. That figure relates to the number of eligible voters, not votes cast. This has been corrected.