Nick Cain: England Grand Slam hopes hit by TV rota

Posted on by in Nick Cain

If you’ve always believed that the Six Nations is a level playing field, then think again. In the 15 seasons since the tournament admitted Italy to its ranks, turning the Five Nations into the Six Nations, it has become a handicap tournament in which the odds are stacked in favour of France and Ireland, and against Wales and England.

This has happened as a consequence of a changed fixture policy after 2000, in which one formula in particular is repeated more often than the others. The premise that France and Ireland have had a favoured status is based on examination of first round matches since the Six Nations came into existence in the year 2000, and the frequency since then with which those two nations had been drawn against the two weakest teams in the tournament, Italy and Scotland in the opening round.

Let’s dispense first with any argument that Italy and Scotland have been anything other than stepping-stones during this era. Italy have finished bottom of the table nine times out of 15, and second to last three times. Scotland have finished bottom three times, and second to last six times. Furthermore, during a decade and a half neither side have finished above third in the table.

Given that the Six Nations is universally recognised as a tournament in which early winning momentum is crucial, being drawn consistently against the tail-enders in the opening round constitutes a huge advantage, whether the match is home or away.

The Six Nations has many advocates – I’m among them – and has continuous plaudits heaped on it as the world’s greatest annual international rugby extravaganza. However, a system whereby two nations are given a racing start while others are confronted frequently with make-or-break opening fixtures is iniquitous, and will, if it is not addressed, eventually undermine the great competitive tradition on which the tournament has been built.

How can it be right that in 11 out of the 15 seasons since 2000, France have started their campaign against either Italy or Scotland, and that Ireland have had the same privilege nine times, whereas England have played one of them on the opening weekend just six times and Wales – most hard done by of all – only four times?

A large part of the explanation is that the host broadcasters – the BBC in the United Kingdom, France Televisions (France), RTE (Ireland) and Sky Italia (Italy) – get-together with the Six Nations Council to arrive at what they consider will be the most exciting fixture format.

Christine Connolly, the Six Nations media and communications manager, explains: “The fixtures are put forward and the Six Nations Council and the broadcasters come to a decision, so it’s a joint effort. We cannot issue fixtures without the approval of the Six Nations Council, which has two representatives from each country.”

There are four different fixture formats. However this season’s format appears to have had a far higher approval-rating from the Six Nations organisers than any of the others, having been selected in seven years out of 15 (2001, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015). The format in question provides a first round draw of Ireland versus Italy, France versus Scotland, and England versus Wales (home or away).

The next most popular format, which has been used four times, involves France against Italy, England against Scotland, and Ireland against Wales. The least used formats, employed twice each, involve an opening weekend featuring Wales v Italy, England v France, and Ireland v Scotland, and another which pits France v Ireland, Wales v Scotland, and England v Italy.

What is also intriguing is that the opening fixtures from the first Six Nations weekend in 2000 – featuring England v Ireland, Wales v France and Italy v Scotland – have not been repeated in the tournament since. One administrator with plenty of experience of tournament organisation told me this week that he believed the Six Nations has taken the wrong fork in the road. “I’ve thought for a long time that the way they do the fixtures is completely unfair. For instance, Ireland have a pretty good idea that one season in every two or three they will be playing Italy away in the opening round, followed by two home games against France and England, and further away games against Wales and Scotland. That is not a bad draw for a Grand Slam season – even when three of your games are not in Dublin.”

He added: “The old Five Nations was rotated a lot more, so that you only ever got a repetition of fixtures after eight years, whereas now there is far more repetition than rotation. Part of the problem is that every nation wants the financial guarantee of three home gates every other season. However, if they took a longer term view in which they were guaranteed 10 home games in a four-year cycle – say, two at home for the first two seasons, then three at home for the next two seasons – then you could swing the fixtures around much more.”

An unwanted by-product of the lack of rotation in Six Nations fixture formulas is that even with an increased number of competing nations, Grand Slams rather than being a rarity have become almost commonplace. Since 2000 there have been eight Grand Slams already – three French, three Welsh, one English, one Irish – at a rate of just over one every two years.

The Six Nations Council should heed the warning signals that engineering fixtures in the interests of creating climaxes for television audiences is fraught with pitfalls that could do more damage than good.

As for England and Wales, they should challenge the French and Irish penchant for securing more than their fair share of first round leg-ups thanks to regular opening fixtures against Italy and Scotland.

*This article was first published in The Rugby Paper on February 8.

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