The Rams will rise and fall with Jared Goff this year. But will he be the answer at QB for the Rams or another story of a spread QB going high in the draft and not panning out?

Today starts a two-part series looking at the presumptive starter at quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams, Jared Goff. Steve Rivera wrote recently that the issue of whether Goff succeeds is as important as signing Aaron Donald, perhaps the best defensive player in the league.

He’s right.

So let’s take a look at Goff. Today I will make the case why we should NOT expect him to be the long-term QB for the Rams and why he will NOT make it as an NFL QB (at least not for the Rams). The next piece will be on why he will make it—so they work as a sort of Yin and Yang.

Goff had a pretty horrendous year last year and even the analysts that defend him admit that. In seven starts, only a few times did he show flashes, as he did in the first half against New Orleans. The stats were not good. But hey, that’s low hanging fruit. You have heard that before.

More than just having seven bad games, he looked lost. He looked like the offense, the NFL, the game was too big for him. Does this get corrected in an offseason? In two? Even if this issue does get corrected in one offseason, isn’t he still just the equivalent of a rookie this year?

In addition, we have learned in the last year that Case Keenum—University of Houston star, journeyman QB, victory waffles aficionado, and all around nice guy—is not an NFL quality starting QB. Keenum commanded the worst offense in the league. Goff was worse than Keenum last year. What does that say about his ability going forward?

And let’s not forget that Goff is not a SeanMcVay guy. Rich Eisen asked him recently about Goff (at 34:30): “You would not have taken the job if you didn’t think that Jared Goff was a viable quarterback to win games in the NFL.” McVay’s response: “This is a great opportunity to be one of 32, so this is always something that you strive to do.”

McVay is right.

He was looking for an NFL head-coaching job, not a QB to marry. First-time head coaches have to go into a situation and do it their way. If that means working with an incumbent for awhile, great. But if he is not the guy, McVay will be quick to move to what will get him wins. His job depends on him being able to do that.

It comes down to this. If Goff does turn out, it will likely take him three years to get to a place of NFL respectability. The Rams are not willing to wait that long. They will lose the city before then. They have a stadium opening in a few years, and they need to build and grow as a team and as a fan base every year.

And Goff may not be the guy to do that.