T20 WC

Qualification scenarios: How can teams reach the semi-final?

by Cricbuzz Staff • Published on

While New Zealand are through, Pakistan are staring at an early exit. © Cricbuzz

New Zealand have become the first side to reach the semi-finals of the 2016 ICC World T20. So that leaves three spots up for grabs with nine teams fighting for them. Here's how those teams stand in their quest to reach the last-four stage:

GROUP 1

West Indies (Points 4; NRR +0.893)

With two resounding wins in their first two games, the West Indies sit pretty on top of the table in Group 1. Their NRR of +0.893 is the best in the group which means they already have a foot in the door to the semifinal. They are the only side which can progress even if they lose both their remaining games.

Matches left:

vs South Africa, Nagpur, 25 March 2016

vs Afghanistan, Nagpur, 27 March 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- Win both their matches and go to semifinal as the topper of the group.

- If they beat South Africa and lose to Afghanistan, they are clearly through as only one among England or Sri Lanka can match them on points.

- If they lose to South Africa and beat Afghanistan, they will either go through directly or will put them in a three way tie with South Africa and England depending on other results and net run rate will come into play.

- They can qualify even if they lose both their remaining matches, thanks to their superior net run rate, if other results come their way. The most realistic possible elimination of West Indies can happen if they lose both their games, South Africa and England beat Sri Lanka and Afghanistan lose to England and then falling behind in run rate.

South Africa (Points 2; NRR +0.816)

Despite the pounding from England in their opening match, South Africa still sit pretty on the points table. They have West Indies and Sri Lanka lined up and will have a very close watch on other matches of the group for further progression.

Matches left:

vs West Indies, Nagpur, 25 Mar 2016

vs Sri Lanka, Delhi, 28 Mar 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- If they win both their matches, their only possibility of getting knocked out is a three-way tie between themselves, West Indies and England and falling behind in net run rate.

- If they beat West Indies and lose to Sri Lanka, they get knocked out if Sri Lanka loses to England and Afghanistan to West Indies and England.

- If they lose to West Indies and prevail over Sri Lanka, they will get eliminated if England win their matches against Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

- If they lose both matches, they will be eliminated.

Sri Lanka (Points 2; NRR -0.171)

Sri Lanka have two tough matches lined up - against England and South Africa. The equation in front of them is simple - win both and qualify.

Matches left:

vs England, Delhi, 26 Mar 2016

vs South Africa, Delhi, 28 Mar 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- If they win both their remaining games, they qualify irrespective of NRR.

- If they beat England and miss out against South Africa, they have to rely on West Indies and Afghanistan heavily to progress further.

- If they lose to England and prevail over the Proteas, their only chance of staying afloat is Afghanistan beating either England or West Indies.

- If they lose both matches, they stand eliminated.

England (Points 2; NRR -0.408)

Despite pulling off a great win against South Africa at Mumbai, they currently sit at No. 4 on the points table, just above Afghanistan. They not only need to win both their games but also need to win them by a good margin and other results can have an impact on their further progress if they fail to win both their remaining games.

Matches left:

vs Afghanistan, Delhi, 23 Mar 2016

vs Sri Lanka, Delhi, 26 Mar 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- If they win both their matches, their only possibility of getting knocked out is a three-way tie between themselves, West Indies and South Africa, and falling behind in NRR. If South Africa lose their match to West Indies, then West Indies and England will go through.

- If they beat Afghanistan and lose to Sri Lanka, their chances go slim as they need all other three results come their favour. England's negative net run rate means the qualification is extremely tough.

- If they lose to Afghanistan and beat Sri Lanka, their qualification will depend again on the results of other three matches in the group not involving them. Again England's negative net run rate could prove detrimental to them.

- If they lose both matches, they stand eliminated.

Afghanistan (Points 0; NRR -1.248)

Afghanistan have had two tough losses despite good showing with the bat in both games. A semi-final qualification looks highly unlikely unless a miracle happens. However, an Afghan win can seriously dent the chances of other teams.

Matches left:

vs England, Delhi, 23 Mar 2016

vs West Indies, Nagpur, 27 Mar 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- They get eliminated if they lose at least one of their two remaining games.

- If they win both their remaining matches by huge margins and South Africa beat West Indies, England beat Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka beat South Africa, there will be a five-way tie and net run rate will be the decider. Their net run rate of -1.248 doesn't inspire much confidence.

GROUP 2

Pakistan (Points 2; NRR +0.254)

Pakistan started off with a brilliant performance with the bat at Kolkata against Bangladesh but fell off against arch rivals India and then against New Zealand. Their current net run rate of +0.254 is ahead of Australia, Bangladesh and India.

Matches left:

vs Australia, Mohali, 25 March 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- If they lose against Australia on Friday they are out of contention for the semifinals.

- If they win, they have to hope India loses at least one of their remaining matches to stay in contention. If they beat Australia and India lose against Bangladesh or Australia, they would end up in a three-way tie depending on how the results go in other three games and net run rate will be the decider. If India lose both their remaining games, they would be in a two-way tie with Australia or a three-way tie with Bangladesh and Australia depending on the outcome of New Zealand - Bangladesh game.

Australia (Points 2; NRR +0.108)

Australia came in as one of the favourites of the tournament but after two matches their old problems on turning tracks seems to have resurfaced. They have two sub-continent teams to play - India and Pakistan. They play both their games in Mohali which might assist their seamers.

Matches left:

vs Pakistan, Mohali, 25 March 2016

vs India, Mohali, 27 March 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- If they win both their matches they qualify.

- If they beat Pakistan and lose to India, they will get eliminated if India beat Bangladesh. Else they will end in a tie with India or both India and Bangladesh depending upon the result of New Zealand - Bangladesh game.

- If they lose to Pakistan and beat India, they will end in a two-way tie with Pakistan or three-way tie with Pakistan and India/ Bangladesh depending upon the results of India - Bangladesh and New Zealand - Bangladesh matches.

- If they lose both matches, they stand eliminated.

India (Points 2; NRR -0.895)

The hot favourites for the tournament, hosts India started with a humbling loss to New Zealand before coming back to winning ways against arch-rivals Pakistan. Their net run rate of -0.895 is currently only above Bangladesh.

Matches left:

vs Bangladesh, Bangalore, 23 March 2016

vs Australia, Mohali, 27 March 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- They should be through if they win their last two matches.

- If they beat Bangladesh and lose out to Australia, they will get eliminated if Australia beats Pakistan. But if Pakistan beat Australia, India will end up in a three-way tie Pakistan and Australia and net run rate will decide who will progress.

- If they lose to Bangladesh and then beat the Aussies, they will end in a two-way tie alongside the winner of Australia-Pakistan clash provided New Zealand get the better of Bangladesh in their last league game. In case Bangladesh beats New Zealand, India will end up on a three-way tie with Bangladesh and winner of Australia-Pakistan encounter.

- They get eliminated if they lose both.

Bangladesh (Points 0; NRR -1.749)

Bangladesh have stormed to the Super Ten from Group A after some commanding performances in the first round. But they have failed to live up to the expectations against the big boys in the main round. With two defeats in two matches, they are staring an early exit.

Matches left:

vs India, Bangalore, 23 March 2016

vs New Zealand, Kolkata, 26 March 2016

Qualification scenarios:

- They get eliminated if they lose at least one of their two remaining games.

- If they win both their remaining matches and Australia win their two, Bangladesh will get eliminated. Their only chance of qualification is to win both their matches by huge margins and the Australia lose at least one of their remaining matches so that they can end in a three-way tie with two among India, Pakistan or Australia.

© Cricbuzz

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