The Spurs set of big men for 2016-17 should include LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon, and possibly yet unknowns. Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, Boban, and David West are definitely gone. Generally, I will look first at the 2015-16 situation and then the 2016-17.

First, let’s look at the two most prominent overall stats, ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM) and Basketball Reference’s Box Plus-Minus (BPM).

2015-16 Players Pos Age Tm G MP RPM RK ORPM DRPM RPM OBPM DBPM BPM Tim Duncan C 39 SAS 61 1536 12 -0.48 5.43 4.95 -0.8 5.0 4.1 LaMarcus Aldridge PF 30 SAS 74 2261 53 0.66 1.49 2.15 0.5 3.5 4.0 Boris Diaw PF 33 SAS 76 1386 141 -0.57 0.64 0.07 -0.1 1.4 1.2 David West PF 35 SAS 78 1404 52 -0.69 2.90 2.21 0.1 3.3 3.4 Total -1.08 10.46 9.38 -0.3 13.2 12.7

Both indicate that the big men in 2015-16 were strong defensibly and weaker on offense. While the totals’ value are only somewhat meaningful both RPM and BPM were quite good and the defensive numbers were quite outstanding.

As the table below shows, the big men for 2016-17 are once again stronger on defense than offense. However, the values are worse. Pau was ranked 10 positions lower than Duncan by RPM but only 3 lower by BPM. While both could be expected to decline with age, Pau is four years younger than Tim. Thus, the down grade, Tim to Pau, is entirely on defense and limited overall.

2016-17 Players Pos Age Tm G MP RPM RK ORPM DRPM RPM OBPM DBPM BPM Dewayne Dedmon C 26 ORL 58 705 170 -2.08 1.76 -0.32 -2.6 1.3 -1.3 Pau Gasol C 35 CHI 72 2291 22 0.65 3.07 3.72 0.7 1.1 1.8 LaMarcus Aldridge PF 30 SAS 74 2261 53 0.66 1.49 2.15 0.5 3.5 4.0 Total -0.77 6.32 5.55 -1.4 5.9 4.5

However, as for RPM and BPM, Dewayne Dedmon, the only known other new big man for 2016-17, is not in the same ballpark as Diaw and West – he has been, of course, on the same court. Obtaining a better fourth big man than Dedmon will be difficult unless the player is a stashed draftee or a remarkably cheap find. The RPM value for a readily available replacement player is -2.1, so Dedmon is a better than marginal player even though his not being extended by ORL might indicate some marginality.

One hope for the performance of Spurs big men in 2016-17 is that Aldridge could perform more like he did near the end of the season and as successfully as he did in 2014-15. Here are his numbers for 2014-15 that I consider a ceiling for his numbers in 2016-17. As one would expect, his RPM value in 2014-15 was much better than 2015-16, 4.06 to 2.15 (Ranked 25 versus 53). His BPM value that I triple checked I had copied correctly are bafflingly lower in 2014-15 possibly even wrong, so I ignored them. His ORPM value shows a potential to have a better season-long offensive performance in 2016-17.

Aldridge Ceiling Pos Age Tm G MP RPM RK ORPM DRPM RPM OBPM DBPM BPM 2014-15 LaMarcus Aldridge PF 29 POR 71 2512 25 3.70 0.36 4.06 0.3 0.0 0.3

Now, let’s look at some offensive stats. Per 100 possessions, the 2016-17 set of big men have been making it to the free throw line significantly more often than the 2015-16 set did. Per 100 possessions, they shot 1 less 3-pointer because Diaw was a more prolific 3-point shooter than any of the 2016-17 set were in 2015-16. However, potentially, Aldridge could return to the same or better shooting of 3-point shots than he did in 2014-15 when he shot over a hundred threes at .352 3P%. Reportedly, he has been practicing hard since he signed with the Spurs.

Player per 100 possessions TS% FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% Tim Duncan .523 14.7 .488 0.0 0.1 .000 7.2 14.6 .490 3.1 4.4 .702 Boris Diaw .582 14.1 .527 0.9 2.5 .362 6.5 11.6 .564 2.1 2.8 .737 David West .573 16.3 .545 0.1 0.3 .429 8.8 16.1 .546 2.3 2.9 .788 Dewayne Dedmon .606 12.6 .559 0.0 0.0 7.0 12.6 .559 4.0 5.4 .750 Pau Gasol .565 21.8 .469 0.5 1.5 .348 9.7 20.3 .478 5.0 6.3 .792 LaMarcus Aldridge .529 23.7 .513 0.0 0.4 .000 12.1 23.3 .521 5.9 6.8 .858 2014-15 LaMarcus Aldridge .528 28.7 .466 0.8 2.1 .352 12.6 26.6 .475 6.2 7.3 .845

Indeed, the potential may exist to run a 5-out offense leaving the middle including the paint completely open for drives (and kicks if backup defender comes). At least 4-out (some call a kind of small ball) seems reasonable with Leonard, Green, Bertans, Mills, Ginobili, Gasol, Parker, and maybe Forbes, Anderson, and Simmons 3-point threats.

Looking at other stats, a few things stand out ro me in the table below. Dedmon almost never had an assist. While Pau is a good passer, his number of assists in 2015-16 was not high. Rebounding should improve – West and Diaw are relatively short. All three 2016-17 big men are 7-footers (roughly) so blocks may go up as the numbers indicate. You may find other stats in this table interesting as well.

Player ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% Tim Duncan 8.8 23.8 16.6 15.3 1.6 3.9 15.3 17.6 Boris Diaw 4.9 13.9 9.6 18.4 1.0 1.2 18.9 17.0 David West 6.0 18.6 12.5 15.4 1.6 3.0 12.3 18.0 Dewayne Dedmon 10.4 25.7 17.9 2.7 1.6 5.4 13.2 15.2 Pau Gasol 9.2 22.2 15.9 8.1 0.9 2.8 7.8 25.9 LaMarcus Aldridge 7.3 28.7 18.2 21.7 0.9 4.7 12.8 24.6 2014-15 LaMarcus Aldridge 7.7 22.9 15.5 9.2 1.0 1.9 7.2 30.2

CONCLUSION

In the net, Pau is almost as good as Duncan, but his defense is significantly worse. One should not expect a dramatic contribution from Dedmon as he is a substantial downgrade from Diaw and West except for height and possibly athleticism. However, regarding performance, Dedmon should be on his way up while Pau is on his way down. Aldridge has potential to improve his total season performance over 2015-16.

As the situation appears today, July 7, 2016, the Spurs will be weaker in big men particularly on the bench. I expect further developments as signings proceed, but not substantial improvement as the salary cap provides a barrier.

Statistics from ESPN and Basketball Reference

ANNEX

A few other stats that I know some find interesting. Of these, I find Dedmon’s Net Rating of +15 the most interesting as it was much larger than that of the team for which he played, ORL.

Player WS/48 OWS DWS WS ORtg DRtg NetRtg Tim Duncan .163 1.6 3.6 5.2 107 96 11 Boris Diaw .132 1.6 2.2 3.8 109 102 7 David West .184 2.4 2.9 5.4 114 98 16 Dewayne Dedmon .162 1.2 1.1 2.4 117 102 15 Pau Gasol .215 5.6 4.5 10.1 107 101 6 LaMarcus Aldridge .149 3.2 3.9 7.1 114 99 15 2014-15 LaMarcus Aldridge .165 4.9 3.7 8.6 108 102 6

Source: Basketball Reference