The frosty weather is set to improve at the Bulgarian resort of Varna on the Black Sea from Monday onward. However, the forecast is less promising for the political climate at the summit taking place there between leading representatives of the European Union and Turkey.

At the start of the year, French President Emmanuel Macron described relations between Turkey and the European Union as "hypocritical." And, in her address to the Bundestag last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was unusually outspoken in her criticism of Turkey's military offensive against Kurds in northern Syria. Turkey reacted sharply. "Some of our allies see the situation with the eyes of terrorists" was the Foreign Ministry's response.

The EU states have now recorded their current displeasure in an unequivocal declaration. In a statement published in advance of the EU summit in Brussels, the European Council "strongly condemns Turkey's continued illegal actions in the eastern Mediterranean and in the Aegean Sea" and "expressed its grave concern over the continued detention of EU citizens in Turkey."

More than misunderstandings

Dialogue is clearly needed. The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will be among those in Bulgaria to speak to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At stake are the frozen EU accession negotiations, ease of travel to the bloc for Turkish citizens and, of course, another €3 billion ($3.7 billion) for the controversial refugee agreement.

This last will be top of the list at the summit. In her recent government declaration, Merkel made it very clear that she stands by the agreement and "will always defend it." The accord between Turkey and the EU was signed two years ago to stop refugees from Syria and other countries from traveling onward to the bloc. It's one of the reasons why the European Union, and Germany in particular, have been so restrained in their response to Turkey's attacks on the Afrin region: human rights abuses and military actions that clearly contravene international law. If the European Union alienates Turkey, the country could again open its borders to permit the movement of displaced people.

"This is a fable that's supposed to justify not exerting any pressure on Turkey," said Sevim Dagdelen, the vice chair of the Left party's group in the Bundestag. She believes that, on the contrary, the European Union should not suggest that it's susceptible to this kind of blackmail. "The EU loses credibility if it demands that countries adhere to certain values, then does nothing more than issue statements," Dagdelen said. In her view, it is preposterous that EU representatives are even meeting with Erdogan at this point. "The summit should not be taking place," she said. Dagdelen suspects that the real reason behind the European Union's forbearance is that it does not want to lose Turkey as a NATO partner.

Erdogan has grown increasingly bold in his demands of international partners

Who has advantage?

There are reasons for Erdogan and his representatives to not go into the talks too boldly. "It's really not true that Turkey has tied the Europeans' hands," said Asli Aydıntasbas, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations who specializes in Turkish and Kurdish issues.

There are a number of indications that the European Union could indeed exert considerable influence on Turkey — should leaders want to. The country depends heavily on its economic relations with the European Union, and with Germany in particular: "When the Turkish government makes harsh statements aimed at Berlin, stock prices and the exchange rate in Turkey fall," Aydıntasbas said.

More than one-sixth of Turkey's exports go to Germany, which has been the country's biggest customer for many years. Then there are the substantial financial contributions from the diaspora: According to Germany's Central Bank, over €800 million a year is sent back to Turkey.

Aydıntasbas, however, suspects that the German government has been reluctant to use measures to demonstrate the leverage it has. "It does deploy them on bilateral issues, as with the imprisoned journalist Deniz Yücel, but clearly there is no appetite to go beyond this," she said.

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations Newroz marked with protest Newroz, the Kurdish and Persian New Year, is an ancient festival that marks the Spring Equinox. Though normally a time for celebration, this year’s festivities were marked with anger and protest over the Turkish government's ongoing military operations in Afrin, Syria, where Ankara-backed militias have been conducting an offensive on the enclave of Kurdish militants since January 20, 2018.

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations Crowd filled with pride, frustration This year's festival came just days after Turkish-backed militias took the city of Afrin, scoring a major victory against Kurdish militants who have largely been pushed out of northwestern Syria. In response, attendees of Newroz celebrations in Diyarbakir, Turkey's largest Kurdish-majority city, chanted pro-Kurdish slogans such as "Long live the Afrin resistance."

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations 'This is not just a celebration, it’s resistance' "There's never been an easy time to celebrate Newroz, but the people who come here are sending a message," said Aynur Asan, member of the Kurdish-led Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) council. "It's a salute to liberated Kurdish areas, but it's also a message to those who have given up on Kurds. This is not just a celebration, it's resistance."

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations 'Barbarism and looting' Pervin Buldan, the new HDP co-chair, addressed the crowd in Diyarbakir with criticism of Turkey's Operation in Afrin. "They did not bring anything to Afrin other than barbarism and looting," she said. "They attacked Afrin because of their intolerance to the gains of the Kurds." She went on to say Ankara could not break the bond between Kurds in Turkey and Syria.

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations Afrin's rightful owners Throughout the Afrin offensive, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the area would be liberated from Kurdish terrorists and returned to its rightful owners. In response, Hisyar Ozsoy, deputy chair of the HDP's foreign affairs, said: "Afrin belongs to the people of Afrin, the majority of whom are Kurdish … what Erdogan is trying to do is ethnic engineering."

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations Criticism of EU inaction "When we go to the West, we see schools and factories. When you come here, what do you see other than prisons and police and tanks?" asked a member of the Peace Mothers, a group of women who've lost children in ongoing conflicts, during a meeting with EU delegates prior to Newroz. "You have not put Erdogan on trial."

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations Ongoing state of emergency Wednesday's Newroz celebration-turned-protest was a rare display of dissent in Turkey, where political gatherings have been banned under a state of emergency that has been in effect since the failed coup attempt in July 2016. In addition, Diyarbakir was under round-the-clock curfew during military operations, in which Turkish forces eradicated Kurdish militants from the city center.

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations Dwindling attendance Following urban warfare that gripped much of Diyarbakir's city center between 2015 and 2016, many of the city's citizens have shied away from public events such as Newroz. Pictured above, members of local Kurdish groups distribute invitations to Newroz in the Diyarbakir's historic center in an effort to encourage people to join the festivities.

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations 'No matter how much pressure they face' Selma Atabey, a representative for the Health and Social Service Workers Union (SES), said more than 4,300 members of her union lost their jobs in Turkey's post-coup crackdown, but many still came out for the festivities. "Newroz is a time when Kurds can express their existence here. No matter how much pressure they face, they will celebrate Newroz," she said.

Kurds protest Turkey's Afrin offensive during Newroz celebrations Festivities cut short The gathering in Diyarbakir ended abruptly on Wednesday, after younger attendees jumped security fences and rushed the stage. Police called for the celebrations to be cut short, but lingering groups continued to play drums and dance. "They always stop us early, but we enjoy ourselves as much as we can," said Nurettin, a male who gave only his first name. Author: Diego Cupolo



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