With that backdrop in place we get to the core of the race budget where we model expected registration revenue (orange columns in the screenshot below) and track current registration (green columns). For the former the starting point is to estimate 2019 registration based on data from prior years. Orchard Beach had great turnout in 2016 and 2017 with 649 and 620 registrants, respectively, before faltering a bit last year to 545 registrants. While our hope is certainly to get back to the turnout from 2016-2017 the reality is that, as we wrote about in ‘The Bear Mountain Pricing Conundrum’, late registration makes it all but impossible to forecast registration in advance. All it takes is a spell of bad weather and the registration numbers can drop significantly. As a result we generally model 85-95% of the prior year’s turnout with some adjustments if the prior year benefited from tailwinds like State Championship standing or suffered from bleak weather (neither of which applies to the 2018 edition of Orchard Beach). Modeled out on a field by field basis the 2019 Orchard Beach budget assumes 494 registrants, down slightly from last year’s 540 registrants.

With the registration numbers modeled we calculate an estimated ‘net field revenue’ after taking into account the $4 insurance fee that we pay USAC for each rider and the aforementioned prize pools that we payout to the two elite fields. The right most column indicates the results — the elite fields are roughly breakeven due to the prize pools, we lose money on the juniors fields where we have moved to completely free registration, and other fields have a pretty direct correlation to registration: the bigger the field, the bigger the net field revenue that is available to cover event overhead.

In the green columns we track the actual registration to date straight from Bikereg, comparing these numbers to both our field limits and our original budget. Unsurprisingly it’s the Men 4/5 and Men 4 fields that are filling most rapidly from the initial 136 registrants the event had as of Sunday afternoon. These are the largest fields and their popularity is vital to covering event expenses. You’ll notice in the “net field revenue” column that the event as a whole is generating just $472.25 of net revenue after insurance and prize pools, meaning we have only just barely started to pay down the event overhead. You’ll also notice in the “CRCA Revenue Per Rider” column that at the moment, with free juniors fields, early registration discounts, and $15 multi-field entries, the club is collecting just $18.18 per registrant on average. This will trend higher as our registration fee schedule moves toward late registration prices, but I’d like to think that we’re providing compelling value for the money at that sort of price point (recognizing that the average cost per rider pre-USAC insurance is higher and Bikereg charges fees on top of that).

Part IV: Budgeting Expenses and Breakeven

As for race expenses, Orchard Beach is thankfully a far cry from the $30,000+ of expenses associated with the Bear Mountain Classic. Instead we’re looking at roughly $9,000 of expenses spread across staff (which includes officials, motos, race directors, and our photographers), equipment (including numbers/pins, vehicle rentals and the pizza that we provide to racers) and services (results, medical coverage, and other permitting and insurance). At our baseline budget of 494 registrants this expense structure points to a modest expected loss on the event of roughly $500 though we hope to do better on registration revenue and get to the point that we’re generating a modest profit on the event. As always, any profit on the event gets reinvested into the rest of CRCA’s Club programming including the Central Park Club Series and the free season-long coaching program.

Looking at the $472.25 of current net field revenue (in the green columns above) the event has only barely started to cover the overhead expenses so the race is technically operating at a ~$9,000 loss as of yesterday. But we’re at just 27.5% of our budgeted registrations so this isn’t exactly a surprise. That financial position will continue to improve as registration trickles in over the next few weeks - with any luck we’ll have a beautiful weather forecast and see strong last minute registration.

For now we’re watching the numbers but focused wholeheartedly on preparing for all of the logistical challenges associated with hosting a race for 500 registrants, give or take. This includes securing final event approvals from our stakeholder partners at NYC Parks and NYPD and coordinating all of the volunteer roles filled by CRCA Club Members at the race, including our course marshals and various team duties. The Club could never operate without the contributions that come from each and every member, from those volunteering to serve on the Board to those simply doing their 2x per year marshaling duty. So a big thank you to everyone who plays a role in making our races possible.

There is a lot of work yet to be done but we’re feeling optimistic about the event. If you’d like to partake in the fun head over to Bikereg to register: https://www.bikereg.com/crcaorchardbeachcrit