Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.

Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters. As I have begun to exhaust all the new interesting rookies, I will be revisiting some of the more noteworthy performers over the course of the season.

All stats are typically current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as noted in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant.

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Updates

Josh Bell (1B – PIT)

Back in Week 2, I expressed some pessimism at the fact that Bell had yet to homer, but still gave him a chance to achieve his preseason projections. Since then, Bell has hit nine homers, nearly equaling the projected 10 homers I previously referenced. His .246 average, largely supported by a .261 expected batting average (xBA), leaves something to be desired, especially for a player who was expected to be a positive contributor in AVG. His 19.1 K% is higher than at any level since his professional debut in 2012, and his 26.5% HR/FB rate is more than twice his highest at any minor league stop. The power level he has achieved so far is supported by his 94.3 mph exit velocity on line drives and fly balls, as well as an 11.1% Barrels per batted ball rate. Still, I would expect his power output to slow down and his average to rise, all while maintaining a very strong walk rate. Overall, it should add up to a near .800 OPS with 12-15 more homers, which is passable at first base, especially for owners who may be reeling from the loss of Freddie Freeman.

Koda Glover (RP – WAS)

In the ever-fluid Nationals bullpen, Koda Glover seems to have risen to the top since returning from a minor hip injury. Dusty Baker offered a mostly clear statement of purpose in installing Glover as “The Closer.” Since my Week 3 assessment, Koda has maintained his fine control but failed to strike out batters at a higher rate. His opportunity to save games, as well as his top-20 expected wOBA (xwOBA), suggest that Glover will be a useful fantasy reliever, at least until the Nationals trade for an established closer or until he shows that he cannot overcome a lackluster strikeout rate by continuing to generate poor contact.

Up Up

Chad Pinder (2B – OAK)

Pinder was a largely unheralded prospect in the Oakland system who was recalled in the absence of Marcus Semien. He has been something of a super-utility player, appearing at 2B, SS, OF, and DH. All the motion around the field has not hindered his offensive production; Pinder has posted a .286/.353/.673 slash line with five homers and one steal. He has the highest fly ball rate of any hitter with more than 50 PAs. At 63.6% FB%, he is fitting in well with his A’s teammate Yonder Alonso (53.5%). Pinder’s 29.6% K% and 14.9% SwStk%, along with the flyball rate, suggest that he is really selling out for power so far. Though his 100.3 mph average line drive and fly ball exit velocity suggests he has the ability to hit the ball hard, his current pace is likely unsustainable. Still, Pinder’s hot start has earned him more playing time over Adam Rosales, and while he may be further squeezed for plate appearances when Semien returns, he is worth a look in deep leagues before pitchers start to adjust to his approach.

German Marquez (SP – COL)

Another week, another surprising rookie Rockies starter. Like Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland before him, German Marquez has pitched well enough to merit a closer look. After a strong start today, May 23rd, Marquez’s ERA stands at 3.86. His 7.71 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9 leave a lot to be desired, and his 7.8% SwStk% does not suggest much more is on the way. As with all Rockies pitchers, he may be of some use away from Coors field, but surely fantasy owners can find other intriguing pitchers that do not call Denver home. Recent spot-starter Jeff Hoffman may be a better long-term option for the Rockies anyway and could make a push for German’s rotation spot.

Jonathan Holder (RP – NYY)

I won’t devote too many words to Yankees middle relievers, but Jonathan Holder has posted very nice strikeout and walk rates this year, 9.95 K/9 and 1.42 BB/9. After giving up two runs tonight, May 23rd, Holder’s ERA has crept up to 2.84. With Aroldis Chapman on the DL, the Yankees’ bullpen is fairly open after Betances and Clippard, so he could be worthy of consideration for, you guessed it, deep holds leagues.

And Away

Tyler Glasnow (SP – PIT)

There’s no doubt that the 23-year-old Glasnow shows flashes of brilliance. There’s also no doubt that the 6’8″ right-hander has serious control issues. His 6.29 BB/9, going into tonight’s start, is the highest rate of all pitchers with more that 30 innings pitched this year. His 9.7 K/9 ranks 24th, but with so many baserunners, this rate is somewhat misleading. More indicative is his 21.3 K%, a mark that ranks only 54th. Despite allowing only two earned runs in six innings tonight, Glasnow’s ERA is still in the mid-sixes, with an xFIP at 5.03. Realistically, I have not changed much from my Week 1 position: Glasnow just does not need to be owned in most fantasy leagues until he can fix his control problems.

Alex Meyer (SP/RP – LAA)

Listed at 6’9″, a right-hander with poor control, Meyer is a chip off the Glasnow block. Meyer is also coming off a 2016 season which was largely lost to injury. His 10.8 K/9 and 6.94 BB/9 over five starts are similarly ugly. As with Glasnow, Meyer is not useable until he shows improved command, and is likewise at risk of being relegated to the bullpen long-term, especially given that he is in the middle of his age-27 season.

J.T. Riddle (2B/SS/3B – MIA)

On a Miami team blessed with an abundance of J.T.s, Riddle has been asked to fill in at shortstop for Adeiny Hechavarria, who will likely be out until mid-June. Consistent with his middling prospect status, he has slashed an uninspiring .239/.255/.435 with two homers. Riddle’s current .196 ISO is higher than any minor league stop, suggesting he is unlikely to continue hitting for this level of power. Riddle may eventually be a reasonable defensive utility player, but he will have little long-term fantasy value.



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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.