THE NEW PARLIAMENT in Naypyidaw is proof that Thein Sein’s reforms have already far outrun his predecessor’s limited ambitions for “disciplined democracy”. When it first met in January 2011, stuffed with the pliant USDP victors of the rigged 2010 election and the 25% army block, the parliament did look like the rubber-stamping institution it was intended to be. But under the energetic leadership of the Speaker of the lower house, Shwe Mann, a former general and a member of the ruling military junta, it has become feisty, unpredictable and unafraid to challenge the president.

Like many other opposition MPs from the minority ethnic parties, Oo Hla Saw, the head of the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), says that whereas in the early days of the parliament his questions on subjects like federalism and wealth-sharing in the states were banned, now “we can discuss these openly…it’s very positive and we are very happy about this.” Win Htein, a senior NLD MP elected in the by-elections of April 2012, says that parliament is now “very lively”. Even the USDP members are taking part more as regular lawmakers than as placemen for the army, judging proposals on their merits.

The people’s choice would undoubtedly be Miss Suu Kyi

Shwe Mann is an astute political operator and probably hopes to make a bid for the presidency in 2015, when the next general election is due. He is using parliament as a vehicle to advance his own agenda at the expense of Thein Sein, whose wings have been clipped by parliament on several occasions. In Myanmar’s system the MPs elect the president. Shwe Mann has formed an effective alliance with his most famous MP, Miss Suu Kyi, and has earned the respect of other opposition MPs for his willingness to listen and negotiate. He could be a compromise presidential candidate, bridging the differences between the army and the opposition parties, especially if the most popular choice for the top job is ruled out.

Lady in waiting

The people’s choice would undoubtedly be Miss Suu Kyi. She and her party, the NLD, have been the most obvious beneficiaries of Myanmar’s democratic opening. Her good personal rapport with Thein Sein, and more recently with Shwe Mann, has been crucial to moving the reforms along quickly. In return for Miss Suu Kyi’s help, Thein Sein has legalised the NLD and mostly called off the spooks and thugs. He also ensured that the by-elections of April 2012, the first elections since 1990 in which the NLD was allowed to take part, were free and fair.

Those by-elections proved that the iconic democracy advocate has lost none of her allure, even after decades of official attempts to discredit her. The NLD won 43 of the 44 seats it contested, often by huge margins. The USDP was trounced. It even failed to win any of the four seats in Naypyidaw, where many constituents work for the USDP-dominated government.

Those who supported the NLD were voting for democracy in general but also for “the Lady” in particular, to reward her for the sacrifices they feel she has made by giving up her family and her freedom for her country. She is also revered, even by many of her military opponents, as the daughter of Myanmar’s founding father, General Aung San. Politics in Asia tends to be dynastic, so her parentage gives her an overwhelming advantage over her rivals. Images of Miss Suu Kyi are often displayed alongside a favourite photo of her father in an outsize military overcoat. It was taken in 1947 when he was about to go to London to negotiate independence with the British government. Miss Suu Kyi was just two years old at the time. He was shot dead by political rivals later that year.

What made the NLD’s sweeping victory in the 2012 by-elections all the more extraordinary was that during military rule the party had been barely allowed to function. Almost all its leaders were imprisoned, some for decades, including long stretches in solitary confinement. Many of them have been remarkably forgiving of their former enemies. Win Htein, who spent over 20 years in jail, is now an MP and frequently has to mingle with them in parliament. He says that as a Buddhist he tries to banish feelings of anger from his heart and thoughts of revenge from his mind. “Anger is like fire,” he says, “and the fire will consume you so you will suffer more.”

Always a disciplined party, the NLD now has to transform itself from an underground protest movement into a potential party of government. Under Myanmar’s first-past-the-post electoral system the NLD would romp home in 2015 if it were to repeat its by-election victories at the national level. The USDP probably would not win a single seat.

The NLD held its first ever national congress in March to marshal its strength and streamline the way it picks its leaders and parliamentary candidates. The meeting was not an unqualified success. There was unprecedented criticism of Miss Suu Kyi for her autocratic style of leadership and unwillingness to accept new blood and new ideas. One critic, Khin Lay, who used to work closely with Miss Suu Kyi, complains that “the Lady says something, and that is policy.” There is little scope for real debates about ideas, she says: “Sometimes if we criticise ASSK we are called disloyal.” It will be a test of Miss Suu Kyi’s leadership to see if the NLD can now evolve into a broad-based party that is able to formulate sound policies on the economy, foreign policy and everything else without breaking apart. It has two years to get its act together.

Yet even if the NLD wins the election in 2015 it does not necessarily follow that Miss Suu Kyi will become president. As the constitution now stands she is barred from that office, thanks to a clause the army inserted specifically to rule her out, to the effect that anyone with a foreign spouse or children is ineligible. Miss Suu Kyi was married to an Englishman, Michael Aris (who died in 1999), and her two sons hold British passports.

The NLD is campaigning to change the 2008 constitution, which it never endorsed. The army was always thought likely to veto any constitutional changes, but intriguingly it may have changed its mind. Its minions in the USDP, led by Shwe Mann, realise that the only way to head off the NLD juggernaut in 2015 is to change the electoral system and introduce proportional representation (PR). This way they could at least avoid being completely wiped out: minority parties always do better under PR.

The constitution does not specify any particular electoral system, but it does say that the lower house should be made up of single-member constituencies, so the introduction of a PR system would require constitutional amendments. In March the USDP asked to set up a parliamentary commission to review the constitution, though without saying why. Clearly the best time for the party to change the constitution is when it still has a massive majority.

The ethnic parties, the parliamentary representatives of the Karen, Chin, Shan and other minorities also back a PR system. Many of them fear a landslide victory for the NLD almost as much as the USDP does because they view it largely as a party of Burman ethnic interests and do not trust it. There is talk of them combining to form an entirely new party, a sort of Federalist Party, to challenge both the NLD and the USDP. That would be much easier to achieve under a PR system.

It would be a gamble, but if the constitution were revised the NLD might concede a PR system in exchange for dropping the clauses barring Miss Suu Kyi from the presidency. Clearly much horse-trading in Naypyidaw lies ahead.