November 5, 2018 - Nelson Has 7-Point Lead In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gillum Also Up By 7 Points In Governor's Race

PDF format

Trend Information

Sample and Methodology detail



In the Florida U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson is holding off a challenge from Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican, and holds a 51 - 44 percent likely voter lead just one day before the election, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





This compares to a 52 - 46 percent likely voter lead for Sen. Nelson in an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.





Double-digit leads among independent voters and women, plus even bigger leads among black and Hispanic voters give Sen. Nelson his cushion:

Nelson leads 54 - 41 percent among independent voters and 91 - 4 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Scott 94 - 4 percent;

Women back the Democrat 53- 41 percent. Men are divided with 48 percent for Nelson and 47 percent for Scott;

White voters back Scott 55 - 41 percent. Nelson leads 87 - 6 percent among black voters and 59 - 31 percent among Hispanic voters.

While 5 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided, only 1 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow.





"Democrats Sen. Bill Nelson and Mayor Andrew Gillum have identical seven-point leads entering the final hours before Election Day in the races to be the next governor and U.S. senator from Florida," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"Sen. Nelson has a 13-point edge among independent voters. Candidates with double- digit leads among independents rarely lose.





"There is little difference in the two races. Both leaders ran up double-digit leads among women; whites went heavily for the GOP candidates while non-whites went even more so for the Democrats."





In the Florida governor's race, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leads former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis 50 - 43 percent among likely voters. This compares to a 52 - 46 percent Gillum lead in an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University Poll.





The voters breakdown in the governor's race closely matches the U.S. Senate race:

Gillum leads 54 - 40 percent among women, as men are split 46 - 46 percent;

White voters go to DeSantis 54 - 41 percent as Gillum leads 90 - 3 percent among black voters and 57 - 29 percent among Hispanic voters;

Gillum leads 52 - 39 percent among independent voters and 93 - 4 percent among Democrats, as Republicans back DeSantis 93 - 4 percent.

While 6 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided in this race, only 1 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow.





"Mayor Andrew Gillum and his challenger, former Congressman Ron DeSantis, are running exactly the same, 93 - 4 percent among self-identified members of each of their respective parties. But Gillum's 13-point margin among independents is the difference in the outcome," Brown said.





From October 29 - November 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,142 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Gillum 50% 4% 93% 52% 46% 54% 47% 36% DeSantis 43 93 4 39 46 40 50 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - - 1 DK/NA 6 3 3 8 7 6 3 5 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Gillum 33% 46% 41% 90% 57% DeSantis 63 49 54 3 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 3 5 4 7 13 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Gillum 37% 54% 28% 40% DeSantis 59 43 67 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 3 4 3 6 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Gillum 5% 3% 92% 94% 46% 59% DeSantis 92 93 3 4 45 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 1 DK/NA 2 4 4 3 7 8 AREA............................. North/ Bay Cen- South South Panhdl Area tral West East Gillum 46% 51% 45% 43% 60% DeSantis 45 43 52 51 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 9 5 3 4 9

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Gillum DeSantis Mind made up 99% 98% 99% Might change 1 1 1 DK/NA - - -

2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Bill Nelson the Democrat or more toward Rick Scott the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Nelson 51% 4% 91% 54% 48% 53% 47% 37% Scott 44 94 4 41 47 41 50 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - 1 DK/NA 5 1 5 5 5 6 3 3 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Nelson 35% 45% 41% 87% 59% Scott 63 50 55 6 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 2 4 3 7 10 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Nelson 39% 52% 31% 40% Scott 58 44 68 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 DK/NA 2 4 1 5 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Nelson 8% 2% 94% 89% 46% 62% Scott 92 96 2 5 49 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - DK/NA 1 1 3 6 5 6 AREA............................. North/ Bay Cen- South South Panhdl Area tral West East Nelson 48% 53% 45% 42% 59% Scott 46 44 52 53 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - DK/NA 6 3 3 3 9

2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?