Conor McGregor keeps his title warm by fighting Nate Diaz in a clash of personalities and percussion this March 5, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Single sentence summary:

Phil: The featherweight king moves up to welterweight for a fight heavy on cash, light on relevance and liable to have lots of raised middle fingers.

David: Moneyweight meets Stockton in a battle between talkers that walk the line just fine.

Stats?

"The Notorious" Conor McGregor 19-2

Odds: -450

Nate Diaz 18-10

Odds: +400

History lesson / introduction to the fighters

Phil: Say what you like about Conor McGregor- he fights a lot. Much like the early era of the Jon Jones run, even if you think he is an insufferable jerk you have to appreciate one glorious thing about him, and that is that he fights a hell of a lot. He feeds the fix of us fight junkies, rarely pulling out, even if his opponents do. With his scheduled bout against Dos Anjos pulled, he had every excuse to wait for his chance to make history, but he's still taking another bout. Is Diaz the most dangerous fight he could have taken? Probably not. Is he the most fun? Almost certainly. Whatever the case, I'm glad we get to see McGregor step into the cage, and not too long after he fought Aldo either.

David: Let's put this into a Salon dot com extrapolation via starvation lense though. Conor gets fights because he's a star. But he's the chicken to Dana's egg in the way that Zuffa more readily rolls out the red carpet for him. Yea, I was the bitter Aljamain Sterling fan who didn't really buy the "Sterling playing hardball" narrative. But once you get past the white noise, it's so much fun to just sit back and appreciate what Conor McGregor has to offer to this sport. He's not some wrestling flunkie that needs the mic to compensate for in cage flaccidity. And he's not a super talent so raw around the edges that coddling him with Bayside bums isn't enough to conceal their flaws. He's a super talent who likes the mic which brings out the best and worst in his opponents. In other words; not Chael Sonnen, as I argued two years ago.

Phil: Nate Diaz... does not fight a lot. Which makes it a weird thing that here he is, headlining the biggest card of the year thus far. That's the magic of the Diaz brothers. Their solo drawing power is perhaps overrated, but they're the magic ingredient for any PPV. Just add them to a fight with another star, and you can be guaranteed irresistibly weird and authentic fight chemistry.

Nate comes across as less thoughtful than his brother, but a bit more mercurial, or even inconsistent. More of a natural bruiser at heart, he packs a bit less visible anxiety about himself than his brother does, but conversely seems to struggle to relate to the outside world a bit more. Living in the shadow of big bro, I don't think he's ever really been able to realize the truth: he's probably the more naturally talented of the two in their chosen field.

David: I think Cheech and Chong have had a strange fight relationship where they can never succeed simultaneously. Either one is in the limelight, taking big fights, or the other is in trouble with the law (real or imagined). Nate has never been given enough credit for essentially living the pro life Mitrione style - 75 % of his professional fights have occurred in the UFC (dating all the way back to 2007). It's some kind of accomplishment, having fought so much yet never having to worry about the pink slip. Harold and Kumar are a whirlwind of anxieties, but they've paid their dues in petulant fashion. And I can't thank them enough.

What are the stakes?

Phil: This fight is oddly stake-less for what it is. Regardless of whether Conor wins or loses, he probably still gets RDA afterwards, unless he gets humiliatingly blown out of the water (which is very unlikely). Similarly, where does Nate go off a win or a loss? I guess more big money fights? So weird.

David: This fight has a strange anti-stake component when you think about it. If Conor wins big. Let's say the fight turns into a reenactment of the Jose Aldo fight (anyone miss the guy? I do). Nate gets buried seconds into the fight and Nick Diaz comes rushing in to start another These Things Happen in MMA moment. If that happened, would anyone be surprised if Conor went straight to Welterweight and skipped this whole Rafael dos Anjos stuff? Robbie Lawler would be the bigger fight, and it's not like RDA could trash talk Conor back into Lightweight. What's he gonna do? Make fun of the size of Conor's hands? Wait. I think I have my demogogues mixed up.

Where do they want it?

Phil: McGregor needs the fight at two specific ranges. This is a closed-stance matchup between two southpaws, and he ideally wants to be either at the edge of kicking range, or within easy range of his left straight. Diaz is a fighter like Rockhold who uses a long frame as a base to move his head backwards. It makes him difficult to tag cleanly with headshots, but it also exposes his front leg, even more than his brother's. McGregor needs to push Diaz's body back and hit that leg, or set up combinations where Diaz can't move out of position.

He's a fine combination puncher, and obviously a very good kicker, but he has the lesser lead hand of the two fighters. McGregor has a great lead uppercut, but not much of a jab. So, to summarize: outside range probably goes to McGregor kicks, slightly closer in goes to Diaz's jab and one-two, midrange is probably McGregor due to his power advantage. Close up I'm not sure, but I favor Diaz's clinch game. As the faster fighter, though, Conor has an advantage in picking which range is favorable for him.

David: McGregor's an expert at dictating range with movement and angles. Unlike most fighters, he doesn't just cut off angles, forcing opponents to reset in ways Conor can easily predict. He actively denies them to his opponent. His front kicks allow him to peck, and prevent offense that can happen down the middle. His spinning kicks allow him to pressure, and prevent easy sidesteps. And his straight punches allow him to capitalize on the predictable movement the rest of his offense initiates.

Conor's straight left is the money strike in this matchup. Conor has never had trouble landing strikes, and that's what I love about this matchup. Nate is the rare fighter whose style of crashing into the 'strategery' could neutralize some of Conor's best weapons, even if by accident.

Phil: That jab is really Diaz's best punch. He can throw it out at a variety of speeds, and is one of the few fighters in MMA who has a really dangerous one-two. It's one of the simplest-looking combinations, but fighters spend years attempting to get their weight transfer right so that they don't fall into it or end up padding with their right. Other than that, it's mostly the counter hook. Diaz obviously isn't quick on his feet, but he's a bit faster than his brother, and works at a longer distance, which means it's a bit harder to just maintain the outside against him.

Ground-game-wise, this is likely pretty one-sided. I could see Conor conceivably going for cheeky takedowns to wrap up rounds, but I'm not sure if he'll let Diaz get him in the clinch.

David: What's weird about analyzing Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz is that Nate has never looked as good on the feet as he did against Michael Johnson. So I'm not quite sure what to do with such new information. Even when everyone was blown away by Nate smothering Donald Cerrone with strikes, his mechanics never looked as polished as they did against Johnson. He was really stepping into the exchanges with leverage, and footwork. I wonder of his old style might have served him better. Or maybe not.

Nate has never been a truly refined boxer. Defensively, he could use a lot of work, and offensively, opponents are never in trouble in the presence of just one punch. But that's always been the Diaz brother charm; their attitudes overwhelm their aptitude.

Insight from past fights?

Phil: Conor's reach advantage has been something he's carried into almost every fight, but I still think his finest performance was the one he had against his lankiest opponent, namely Max Holloway. He rammed Holloway back into the fence, and snuffed the steps which the Hawaiian took forward with the oblique kick. We haven't seen it for a while, but perhaps it makes a comeback in this fight. Conversely, though, Nate's best performance in years just came against a very skilled southpaw boxer.

David: I think this fight is gonna look like the version of Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit we imagined in our heads, but with a distinct outcome, and a lot less imagined controversy. Conor's obviously a different fighter than Condit. As is Nate from Nick (not that much, but there's real subtlety to both of their respective games). But Conor will have a more defined path to victory.

X-Factors?

Phil: Gotta be Nate's fight shape. I know Dana talked about how he'd been training for a triathlon... but I just don't believe it. This is barely an X-factor, in fact- it may be the most salient issue of the fight, and a significant reason why Zuffa and McGregor selected Diaz over Pettis / Cerrone et al: Nate's likely not in fight shape, and desperately needs to be for a fight against an iron-chinned power puncher who keeps a ridiculous pace. He's been handsomely compensated, but I think this is a fight where he's been brought in to lose, and everyone there knows it.

David: You mean it's not important to note how critical it was that Nate got Conor to flinch, and said flinch could be the difference between winning and losing?

Prognostication:

Phil: There are the germs of a great stylistic clash here, but as mentioned, I don't think Diaz is prepared to go five rounds with an animal like McGregor. This is no Chad Mendes situation, where McGregor took a huge leap into the unknown by taking on the stylistically extremely tough #2 fighter in the division. This is a fight made to be fun, but also made to have a specific outcome. Conor McGregor by TKO, round 3.

David: Germs of a stylistic clash; couldn't have said it better. Johnson landed that left too much for me to think Conor won't be landing his all night. Ultimately I think the issue is that the Diaz brothers always falter when their opponents actively counter their proximity brawling. This is certainly one of funnest lightweight matchups, but the most competitive it is anything but. Conor McGregor by TKO, round 4.