COLUMBUS, Ohio -- One week from today, the College Football Playoff committee will release its first rankings of the season.

Expect Ohio State football to not only be in the top four but to potentially snag the No. 1 seed — at least for the first week. The Buckeyes’ resume is strong on balance and solid in strength of schedule. The LSU-Alabama winner a week later, however, likely will and arguably should take the top spot.

With all three of those teams idle in the week ahead — and Clemson assured of that fourth spot assuming it somehow sneaks past FCS Wofford — there does not appear to be much drama for that Nov. 5 reveal.

Perhaps the one wrinkle is whether Penn State — 8-0 just like all of the above and possessing wins over three top-30 opponents per the Sagarin rating — is more worthy of a top-four spot than any of the teams above.

Furthermore, could any scenarios result in the Big Ten sending two teams into the national semifinals?

Only once before have two teams from the same conference made the playoff. In 2017, Georgia was the 3 seed and Alabama the 4 seed, and those teams played for the national championship.

Let us first consider Penn State’s candidacy on its own.

The Nittany Lions’ 8-0 record includes three top-30 Sagarin victories: at Iowa (16) and Michigan State (23) and home against Michigan (10). Even considering Sagarin’s apparent fascination with the Mitten State, that’s solid work. Throw in 59-0 at Maryland and even that hard-fought 17-10 home win over a decent Pittsburgh squad and the Lions’ resume has some legitimacy.

What about Minnesota? The Gophers’ best victory per Sagarin so far is a home win over No. 53 Nebraska. Their current resume is more similar to Baylor or SMU or Appalachian State than the other Big Ten undefeateds. (That’s not just my opinion — read on.)

The committee, however, will go beyond wins and losses. I have tried to come up with a data set that can approximate the factors the committee is known to use. I don’t have access to the exact same stats (relative offensive and defensive scoring, for example), but I can try to fake it.

Some of those sources:

Football Outsiders’ Offensive and Defensive FEI: This is, essentially, possession efficiency corrected for opponent. Not exactly relative scoring, but a better substitute than the pure scoring numbers. (Note: FO has not yet updated those factors as of Monday night, so I used the numbers through last week.)

Scoring margin: Exactly as it sounds. Not relative/opponent-adjusted, but the best we can do this week.

Massey Index: The consensus of a collection of 26 computer rankings.

I then included each team’s national rank in those four categories, then averaged that ranking. While the week-old FEI numbers skew this data — especially hurting LSU by excluding its victory over Auburn — here is how the teams lined up per that average:

1 Ohio State, 2 Alabama, 3 Clemson, 4 Penn State, 5 Utah, 6 LSU, 7 Georgia, 8 Oregon, 9 Baylor, 10 Oklahoma, 11 Minnesota, 12 SMU, 13 Florida, 14 Appalachian State

Obviously, LSU should not and would not be that low. The committee will also see victories at Texas and home against Florida and Auburn and compare that to the field and decide no one can match that big-win resume.

The committee says it primarily considers four factors:

Championships won

Strength of schedule

Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)

Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incentivizing margin of victory)

We don’t have championships or head-to-head results yet to rank the unbeatens. So if we assume Ohio State and Alabama are safe, and AP No. 1 LSU gets in over Penn State on resume, and Clemson gets in over PSU by being an undefeated defending national champion, here’s how I believe the CPF rankings would fall this morning:

1 Ohio State (best, broadest case across the spectrum)

2 LSU (most big wins)

3 Alabama (has not missed a playoff yet)

4 Clemson (undefeated defending national champs)

Next two: 5 Penn State, 6 Oregon (undefeated since season-opening loss at Auburn)

So how can the Big Ten get two teams into the playoff? Some scenarios:

1. Ohio State wins out: Two B1G entries probably can’t happen. Penn State’s resume without beating the Buckeyes would need to top all of those other teams. Either LSU or Alabama will have beaten each other, and the loser probably has a better one-loss case than Penn State. I also would not want to put any resume up against a potential one-loss Clemson for the final playoff spot — the committee is only human.

2. Penn State beats Ohio State and wins out: Maybe, if the PSU win in Columbus is a close one and the committee considers OSU’s dominance in the other 11 games to be superior to that of the Alabama/LSU loser, Oklahoma, Georgia, whoever. Missing out on a conference championship game hurts, but as the Buckeyes learned in 2016, it’s not a deal-breaker.

3. Minnesota beats Penn State and wins out, beating 12-0 OSU in the Big Ten championship game: See No. 2 above. The committee will definitely put an undefeated Big Ten champion in the final four, and these theoretical Gophers will have earned that spot. It then comes down to OSU’s body of work against the other top one-loss contenders.

Caveat to both No. 2 and 3: The Alabama/LSU champion then needs to go on to beat Georgia/Florida/whoever in the SEC Championship game, cleaning up the one-loss field a bit.

4. Minnesota goes 12-0, loses to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship: Probably the toughest call. The Gophers would add wins over Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin to what currently is a flimsy resume. Would that be enough when compared head-to-head with one-loss LSU/Alabama/Oklahoma/whoever?

5. Ohio State loses to Michigan to go 11-1, beats 12-0 Minnesota in Big Ten Championship game: If the one-loss Gophers lose the head-to-head argument with OSU, which they would here, then they can’t win it against anyone else.

6. One-loss Minnesota beats previously unbeaten Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship: Honestly that seems like a scenario that leaves both teams on the outside looking in. This is a fun one to think about if absolute chaos has descended on the rest of the field. It’s a potential disaster for the Big Ten if Clemson and the LSU/Alabama winner loses in the SEC Championship game. Could we see three SEC teams and Clemson in the playoff?

Of all of those scenarios, only No. 2 seems to have a real possibility of working out for the Big Ten.

We know one thing for sure: Any team that loses no longer controls its own destiny. Inevitably, someone from among Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota will be in that position within the next two weeks.

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