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Bernie Sanders has opened up a four-point lead on Hillary Clinton days ahead of the Democratic primary in the key state of Wisconsin.

According to the Marquette University Law School Poll:

Among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton, with 6 percent undecided. …. On the Democratic side, 77 percent think Clinton is the most likely nominee, with 19 percent saying Sanders is most likely to win the nomination. Prior to Iowa and New Hampshire voting, 60 percent said Clinton and 33 percent said Sanders was most likely to win the Democratic nomination. …. In the Democratic primary, among likely voters, Sanders’ lead is strongest in Madison and the north and west, with other areas closely competitive. In the City of Milwaukee, Clinton leads 51‑42 among all registered voters but Sanders has the edge 47-46 among likely voters, an indication of the potential effect of turnout on the results.

The Sanders lead is just above the poll’s margin of error of 3.3%. Hillary Clinton leads among women and older voters while Bernie Sanders leads with younger voters and men. The takeaway from this poll is that Wisconsin is close. Bernie Sanders will once again have to depend on young voter turnout if he is going to win Wisconsin.

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Sen. Sanders has been hammering former Sec. of State Clinton on the issue of trade in Wisconsin, but the Marquette poll shows that by a margin of 48%-42%, Wisconsin Democratic voters say that trade agreements have been an overall good thing. The degree of support for trade agreements suggests that the Sanders campaign might be misfiring with Badger State voters on trade.

If the margin is close in Wisconsin, a narrow loss will be as good as a win for Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders needs to win 58% of the pledged delegates in each state in order to erase Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead. A nearly 50/50 split in Wisconsin works in Clinton’s favor because she draws closer to the nomination while eliminating another poll of available delegates from the primary.

A four point lead for Sanders is nice, but he is going to have to win by ten points more if he is going to change the trajectory of the Democratic race. Bernie Sanders is a strong and formidable candidate, but the fact that a four-point lead in Wisconsin isn’t enough shows just how steep of a hill his campaign will need to climb to become the Democratic nominee.