AL East 2020 Season Preview

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

By Michael Flores

2020 Preview of the AL East

Baltimore Orioles

2019 record: 54-108

The Orioles technically improved from their disastrous 47-win 2018 season, but still finished dead last in the AL East. The next goal for the Orioles should be to finish with at least 60 wins in 2020. Hooray! There is not much to look forward to with this team, but be on the lookout for top prospects 1B Ryan Mountcastle (#4 in organization and MLB Pipeline #64) and OF Yusniel Díaz (#5 in organization) to make their Major League debut in 2020.

Key Acquisition:

– José Iglesias – Free Agency(2019 Cincinnati Reds) – 1-Year deal

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI K% BB% .288/.318/.407 11 59 13.2 3.8

Key Losses:

– Jonathan Villar – Traded to Miami Marlins

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI SB fWAR .274/.339/.453 24 73 40 4.0

– Dylan Bundy – Traded to Los Angeles Angels

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 161.2 4.79 162 9.02 2.5

Key Takeaways:

– Trey Mancini showed that his 2017 season was not an anomaly. He slashed .291/.364/.535, and a BABIP of .326, with a career-high 35 HR and 97 RBI. His season was good enough for a 132 wRC+ and an fWAR of 3.6.

– John Means got the chance to pitch in his first full season in the big leagues. Means had a very respectable first year, posting a 3.60 ERA with 121 K in 155 IP, good enough for a 3.0 fWAR.

– Austin Hays showed some promise in the opportunity he was given. He slashed .309/.373/.574 with 4 HR. In only 68 AB, that was good enough for a 0.9 fWAR and a 146(!) wRC+.

– Dylan Bundy traded to the Los Angeles Angels for 4 RHP prospects. Bundy never lived up to the potential of team ace that he was projected to be. He was never able to put together a season with an ERA under 4.00. Hopefully, a change of scenery is all he needs.

Boston Red Sox

2019 record: 84-78

The Red Sox followed up their World Series winning season by not making the playoffs and finishing third in the AL EAast in 2019. They are also currently in the midst of a cheating scandal, which is currently being investigated. How do you respond to missing the playoffs a year after winning the World Series? By trading your best hitter, and top 3 position player in the league, of course. Instead of singing Mookie Betts to an extension, the Red Sox traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and now Boston has to cheer for a Jeter. Now they have to look for an offensive replacement and a manger, as Alex Cora was fired amid the cheating investigation. The best chance of making the playoffs in 2020 will be as the second Wild Card team, but they are just one serious injury away from finishing fourth in the division.

Key Acquisitions:

– Alex Verdugo – Traded from Los Angeles Dodgers

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI K% BB% 294/.342/.475 12 44 13.0 6.9

– Jeter Downs – Traded from Los Angeles Dodgers

*MLB Pipeline #87 prospect*

– Kevin Pillar – Free Agency (2019 Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants) – 1-Year deal

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI K% BB% .259/.287/.432 21 88 13.8 2.8

Key Losses:

– Mookie Betts – Traded to Los Angeles Dodgers

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI K% BB% wRC+ fWAR .259/.287/.432 21 88 13.8 2.8 135.0 6.6

– David Price – Traded to Los Angeles Dodgers

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 107.1 4.28 127 10.73 2.3

Key Takeaways:

– Every year since 2015 Mookie Betts has been an All-Star and a Gold Glover. He has also been a Silver Slugger each of those years, except 2017, and has been in the top-10 in AL MVP voting, winning it in 2018. Instead of being rewarded with an extension, he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers along with David Price.

– Xander Bogaerts continued to show he should be talked about more. He slashed .309/.384/.555 with a career-high 33 HR and 117 RBI, a 141 wRC+ and a 6.8 fWAR. He capped off his great year finishing in the top-5 in AL MVP votes.

– Rafael Devers enjoyed a potential breakout season, slashing .311/.361/.555. He hit 32 HR and 115 RBI, good enough for a 132 wRC+ and a 5.9 fWAR. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the pressure of needing to be a top performer on offense, now that Mookie is gone.

– Biggest surprise of the year could be the emergence of Brandon Workman. Workman has been a very serviceable bullpen piece the past couple years, but his 1.88 ERA in 2019 was by far his best year yet. In 71.2 innings he struckout 104 batters, that’s a 13.06 K/9!

New York Yankees

2019 record:103-59

The Yankees took the momentum of their first-place finish in the AL East and swept the Twins in the NLDS. Their high ended in the NLCS, losing to the Houston Astros in 6 games. To fix that, the Yankees did what they do best, spend money. They were not going to take no as an answer, so to ensure a “yes” from Gerrit Cole they gave him $324MM. The Yankees are currently the favorites to win the AL East, but the injury bug knows where to find them.

Key Acquisitions:

– Gerrit Cole – Free Agent (2019 Houston Astros) – 9-Year deal

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 212.1 2.50 326 13.82 7.4

Key Losses:

Dellin Betances – Free Agency (New York Mets)

*Injured 2019 season*

CC Sabathia – Retired

Career (Cleveland Indians, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees):

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 3577.1 3.74 3093 7.78 66.5

Didi Gregorius – Free Agency (Philadelphia Phillies)

*Spent the first half of season on IL.*

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI K% BB% .238/.276/.441 16 61 15.4 4.9

Key Takeaways:

– Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, James Paxton, Luis Severino, and Domingo Germán will not be available Opening Day. Stanton and Judge are not expected to miss much time due to injury, but Paxton could return as early as May. Severino will miss the entire year, as he needs Tommy John Surgery. Domingo German is currently serving an 81-game suspension for violating the league’s Domestic Violence Policy, he has 63 games remaining.

– CC Sabathia has been a fan favorite for many years. He has finally decided to call it quits after 19 years, 11 with the Yankees. His final year did not go as hoped, but he has a very solid chance at making the Hall of fame. Surpassing both the 250-win and 3000 K mark will help his case.

– The signing of Gerrit Cole could not have come at a better time. With injuries to Severino and Paxton, along with German being suspended and Sabathia retiring, The Yankees rotation is hurting, literally. They are an injury away from only having 2 serviceable starters and the season hasn’t even started yet.

Toronto Blue Jays

2019 record: 67-95

Even though Toronto finished fourth in the AL East, a third-place finish and second Wild Card spot is not too farfetched. Overall, the team is young and has shown promise. Toronto also did a complete overhaul of their rotation, adding 4 new Starting Pitchers. Look for them to sneak in while the rest of the division catches the injury bug.

Key Acquisitions:

Tanner Roark – Free Agency (2019 Cincinnati Reds and Oakland Athletics) – 2-Year deal

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 165.1 4.35 158 8.60 1.9

Hyun-Jin Ryu – Free Agency (2019 Los Angeles Dodgers) – 4-Year deal

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 182.2 2.32 163 8.03 4.8

Shun Yamaguchi – Free Agency (Japan) – 2-Year deal

*Career (Japan) Stats via Baseball-Reference*

IP ERA K K/9 Saves 1093.1 3.33 1061 8.7 112

Chase Anderson – Traded from Milwaukee Brewers

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 139.0 4.21 124 8.03 1.2

Key Losses:

¯_(ツ)_/¯

Key Takeaways:

– Rafael Dolis is attempting to make a comeback after pitching in Japan for the past 4 years. Blue Jays decided to give him a chance on a 1-year deal.

– Travis Shaw was signed to a 1-year deal. This will make him the veteran presence in the infield that the team needs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio all made their debuts last season and will be looking to make an impact in 2020.

– Look out for the Major League debut of MLB Pipeline’s #10 0verall prospect, Nate Pearson. In 101.2 IP, Pearson held batters to a .176 Avg while striking out 119 and only giving up 8 HR through 3 different levels.

Tampa Bay Rays

2019 record: 96-66

Tampa Bay finished second in the AL East and was able to secure the second Wild Card spot. They beat Oakland in the Wild Card game to advance to the ALDS. They lost to the eventual AL Champs, Houston Astros, but took them to 5 games. The Rays were not at full health and they still managed to have a great season. With key players healthy this year, watch out for them to finish in first place in an injured AL East.

Key Acquisitions:

Xavier Edwards – Traded from San Diego Padres

*MLB Pipeline’s #72 prospect*

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo – Free Agency (Japan) – 2-Year deal

*Career (Japan) Stats Via Baseball-Reference*

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI K% BB% .285/.382/.528 205 613 24.3 13.8

Key Losses:

Tommy Pham – Traded to San Diego Padres

AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI K% BB% SB fWAR .273/.369/.450 21 68 18.8 12.4 25 3.3

Matthew Liberatore – Traded to St. Louis Cardinals

*MLB Pipeline’s #41 prospect*

Emilio Pagán -Traded to San Diego Padres

IP ERA K K/9 fWAR 70.0 2.31 96 12.34 1.5

Key Takeaways:

– Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and José Alvarado were all injured last year and their absence was noticeable. Blake Snell was coming off an amazing 2018 season where he won the AL Cy Young award, but he was not the same pitcher in 2019. Injuries plagued him, and his ERA ballooned from 1.89 to 4.29. Glasnow was very effective when he was able to pitch, starting the season 5-0 with a 1.75 ERA before getting injured. He did not make another appearance until September. Jose Alvarado made multiple trips to the IL in 2019. If he can stay healthy and regain his 2018 form, where he had a 2.39 ERA in 70 appearances, he should be a staple in the bullpen.

– Charlie Morton stepped up in a big way in his first year with the Rays. His 3.05 ERA and 240 K in 194.2 IP earned him a 6.1 fWAR and a third-place finish in the AL Cy Young race. The Rays top of the rotation in Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, and Tyler Glasnow could be scary good, as long as everyone can stay healthy.

– Austin Meadows would like everyone to know he is here. In his first full season, he managed a .291/.364/.558 slash line with 33 HR and 89 RBI. The kid can hit may be an understatement. 2020 will be the year for him to show that he is the real deal and 2019 wasn’t an anomaly.

All stats per FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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