It's getting harder to make the case that Erie is a city of 100,000. New numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show the city's population is 98,593.

For nearly a century, Erie has been a city of more than 100,000 residents.

That distinction — for whatever it might be worth — continues to slip further from reach.

Erie's population, which fell to 99,472 in 2015 — the first time it had been below 100,000 since 1920 — slipped to 98,593 in 2016, according to a new estimate released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Erie, Pennsylvania's fourth-largest city, continues to shrink, though not in the dramatic fashion of Detroit or a post-Katrina New Orleans.

Erie's population decline has been more gradual, dropping 3.1 percent from the 101,786 counted as Erie residents in the 2010 census.

While the recent drop appears modest, the impact over time has been substantial.

Since Erie's population peaked in 1960 at 138,440, the city has lost more than 40,000 residents.

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That's enough people to fill the Erie Insurance Arena nearly six times over, or more than three times the current population of Meadville, which is 12,964, according to the Census Bureau.

Erie's decline can be measured in shrinking enrollment at the city's schools or the for-sale signs that can linger outside homes.

Over the years, local officials have worried that Erie's lost status as a city of 100,000 could mean cuts in government funding, and lost eligibility for programs that target larger cities.

Perhaps surprisingly, Erie County has not experienced a corresponding loss of housing units that would reflect the city's declining population. In fact, while the county's population has slipped 1.5 percent, falling from 280,566 in 2010 to 276,207 in 2016, the number of housing units has actually increased, rising from 119,138 in 2010 to 120,087 in 2016.

So how important is it if Erie, which lost the distinction of being Pennsylvania's third-largest city in 2000, can no longer claim a population of 100,000?

Erie's two mayoral candidates attach considerable significance to the 100,000 number. And not surprisingly, both express confidence that they can reverse the trend.

"It definitely matters," Republican John Persinger said. "Over the last 60 years there has been a steady decline, not only in terms of population but in terms of job growth, in terms of industry growth. As any businessperson will tell you, if you are not growing, you are dying."

"I think it's important," Democrat Joe Schember agreed. "It impacts state funding and how we are looked at as a city."

Each looks at the funding problems of the Erie School District as key reasons for the city's declining population.

"People are moving out of the city because of the school situation," Persinger said. "That should be the number one issue."

Although the mayor's office has no direct control over the school district, Persinger said Erie's next mayor needs to lobby on behalf of Erie's schools.

"The mayor does not have direct authority, but if you feel constrained by that you are going to continue to manage the decline of the city," Persinger said.

While Schember ranks a shortage of family-sustaining jobs as Erie's top challenge, he calls education a close second.

"The school system is a very important part of this," he said. "We can't just ignore this even though (the mayor has) no authority. The main thing is to go to Harrisburg and lobby with them."

Matt Froehlich, a city resident and an associate broker with Coldwell Banker Select Realtors in Erie, said he believes that questions about the future of Erie's schools will eventually be resolved.

For now, though, plenty of house hunters, especially those with children, aren't even considering properties in Erie, he said.

Froehlich said he has concerns about the falling population figure.

"I feel like it matters to me as someone who is invested in the big picture," he said. "I think it matters to me as someone in the real estate world. I would like see more people moving to the city. The number is arbitrary, but I would like to see it headed in a positive direction."

Population has declined, but new arrivals still find their way to Erie.

Peter Schroeder and his wife, Grace, both in their 20s, made the move in summer 2016. She entered a premedical program at Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine, while he put his digital marketing skills to work at RendrFX.

"We were looking at the size of the city," said Schroeder, who moved from a lakefront town of about 30,000 in Wisconsin. "We wanted it to have big-city amenities without a big-city feel. We wanted to be close to nature. Presque Isle was a huge plus for us."

Other things were also important, including lots of coffee shops and an entrepreneur-focused community, he said.

Schroeder, who lives in a Lovell Place apartment, said his new community checked all the boxes.

"For me, coming to Erie has been one of the blessings of my life," he said.

He's come to believe in Erie, and said he feels hopeful that local investments in people and entrepreneurs are going to make a difference.

"The (population) number is not important to me," he said. "I for one am a fan of the underdog story. The number isn't as important as the mentality. And once everyone gets on board, the number can change."

Jim Martin can be reached at 870-1668 or by email. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/ETNMartin.