I’m writing this article at the risk of being very unpopular for doing so. This is a message many dynasty owners don’t want to hear, especially right now. Sometimes one has to be the bearer of bad news. Plus, we’ve had an influx of new dynasty players to the site and I felt this information would benefit them.

I’ve been on record for some time as saying the 2013 draft class isn’t particularly good for dynasty. The draft lacks many of the elements of an attractive class:

No super studs a la Trent Richardson , AJ Green or Julio Jones . One of the best draft sites on the net (www.draftcountdown.com) doesn’t have a RB/WR/TE going off the board until Cordarrelle Patterson at pick 17

, or . One of the best draft sites on the net (www.draftcountdown.com) doesn’t have a RB/WR/TE going off the board until at pick 17 No star quality QBs such as Mathew Stafford or Andrew Luck . Geno Smith will go early because of positional value and team need, but I hope someone reaches for him ahead of me in my rookie drafts

or . will go early because of positional value and team need, but I hope someone reaches for him ahead of me in my rookie drafts No surefire first round RBs like Mark Ingram, CJ Spiller or David Wilson. Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard are nice players, but they are second round NFL talents

What proponents of the class point to is the depth and particularly the depth at wide receiver. And there is no doubt that this class has a bevy of receivers who may have impact in the NFL and in dynasty leagues.

Approach

Since the argument put forward is that this class is built on receivers, I decided to look back over the last four years and assess how the receivers have fared in fantasy. Sadly, it’s not a very good picture. I’m generally of the opinion that in non-IDP leagues, picks after the first round are dice rolls and should be treated as such. So the group of receivers I looked at were ones routinely taken in the first round of rookie drafts. Your league might have been a little different, but generally speaking these were the typical first rounders.

I categorized the receivers into four groups:

Stud : These are players we all love to own, play weekly and see as cornerstone players for our teams

: These are players we all love to own, play weekly and see as cornerstone players for our teams Solid : Players who are owned in all leagues and are routinely in starting rosters

: Players who are owned in all leagues and are routinely in starting rosters Questionable : Jury is still out. Players from recent drafts for whom the opportunity to shine (or bust) hasn’t yet happened

: Jury is still out. Players from recent drafts for whom the opportunity to shine (or bust) hasn’t yet happened Bust: These are players I am avoiding in 99% of situations

Readers may want to question some of my categorizations and that’s fine. Chances are some will say that there are players I list as “busts” that should be “questionables,” or whatever. That wouldn’t change the outcome of the analysis anyway.

2012 2011 2010 2009 Stud (7) Green Bryant Harvin Jones Thomas Nicks Crabtree Solid (4) Blackmon Smith Maclin Wright Questionable (5) Floyd Brown Hill Jeffery Quick Bust (8) Little G.Tate Heyward-Bey Baldwin Benn Britt Hankerson Young

Findings

Wide Receiver is a 50/50 Proposition: The chart demonstrates that a WR is a 50/50 proposition in the first round of your rookie draft – this is disappointing for dynasty owners. Surely the hope would be that a first round pick yields better results than this. I’ve received a lot of questions of late about trading known WRs for rookie picks (e.g. Torrey Smith for the 1.03) and this suggests extreme caution should be used in doing so. The safe play turns out be to cash in the picks on the “less sexy” WRs such as Jeremy Maclin, Stevie Johnson or Dwayne Bowe as opposed to rolling the dice on a rookie.

Watch the NFL Draft: Every single stud was a first round NFL rookie pick. Obviously there are players who were picked in the first round who didn’t pan out, but it’s noteworthy that none outside of the NFL first round have emerged as studs. This is somewhat concerning in terms of the argument that what makes this class good is the depth at WR. We aren’t going to see six or seven WRs taken in the first round! Depending on how you see this, a play might be to try to parlay a late first in to two seconds to give yourself two swings at the plate. If the class really is that deep, this would theoretically give you better odds.

Character Matters: Notice that a lot of the busts have well known character issues. Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Titus Young, Golden Tate and Kenny Britt all had issues coming in to the NFL. In the case of both Britt and Baldwin, teams overlooked that and drafted them in the first round anyway. Clearly Dez Bryant and Percy Harvin are the counter-example. I’d suggest you weigh character when you are selecting a receiver with your first round selection. If you’re on the fence between two players, use it as the tie-breaker.

Patience isn’t Necessarily a Virtue: Conventional wisdom suggests it takes a while for receivers to acclimate to the NFL and therefore provide meaningful fantasy value. Maybe so/maybe not. Obviously we aren’t throwing in the towel just yet on the 2012 class – thus a lot are listed as “questionable.” However, the only player who changed his spots for the good over this time period was Michael Crabtree – all the other studs came out of the gate with a bang. While this doesn’t have much impact on your draft behavior, it does speak to cashing in on value. Example: It’s likely that a lot of Jeremy Maclin owners wish they had sold a year or so ago. His value seems to have been on a slide ever since. And in terms of the draft, this means that odds are that the highest point of value from your pick is right before you make it.

Conclusion

As mentioned before, the disappointing aspect of this is that a first round dynasty rookie pick at wide receiver is a 50/50 proposition at best. I think we could accept that if I had included the second rounders as well, but it feels like we should get better results with our coveted first rounder.

The safe play is clearly to trade your pick for a known quantity. The trade market for rookie picks is already in full swing in most leagues and will only gain steam over the next six weeks or so. Try not to let your emotions about the NFL draft cloud your judgment on doing what’s best for your team.

The Counter Argument: If you do trade away your pick, you’re losing some major upside. This is the allure of the rookie pick! Realistically, the only way to get AJ Green or Julio Jones for anything but your first born child was via the rookie draft. The issue is that this is fool’s gold in this rookie class. It may be hard to believe this (or sadly maybe not), but I knew that AJ Green had the goods to be a stud while he was still in high school. He was/is that good. With Julio Jones, even my Grandma could have watched an Alabama game and said that he was good. We’ll get those level of prospects again in the future, it’s just not happening this year.

A Potential Silver Lining: The one argument in favor of this class (other than depth) that makes sense to me is how the NFL draft is lining up. The really bad teams (those at the top of the draft), have line needs and will not reach for any of this crop of receivers. It seems unlikely that we’ll end up with a Justin Blackmon to Jacksonville or Michael Floyd to Arizona type situation in 2013. Frankly, the teams can’t afford it and the players don’t warrant it. This should mean that receiver needy teams like Pittsburgh and Minnesota will have their choice of some high caliber talent. Hopefully this will mean quick impact for dynasty. Just thought I’d try to end on a positive note!

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Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.