Heading into his second NBA season, projections for Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton are all over the map. After Media Day, the picture remains foggy.

There’s no doubt that second-year center Deandre Ayton is in store for a big season in 2019-20. After posting 16.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game on 58.5 percent shooting as a rookie, without a real point guard, he’s set to feast like never before now that the Phoenix Suns have brought Ricky Rubio into the fold.

Unfortunately, there’s been little agreement about what a successful second season would look like for such a controversial big man. Like his desert co-star Devin Booker, Ayton was somewhat overlooked last year as the byproduct of posting meat-and-potato numbers on a crummy team. To this point, he doesn’t possess the defensive traits needed for a modern big man to stay on the floor in a playoff game, nor did he get the opportunity to show any type of floor-spacing in year one. In fact, there’s even been debate over whether he should exclusively play the 5.

Cart, meet horse. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Worrying about whether Ayton can stay on the floor in a playoff game at age 21 may be a legitimate issue worth tackling one day, but for now, it’s one step at a time. Next season, the Suns would be thrilled to win 30-35 games and finally get this rebuild off the ground.

In order to do so, however, the former No. 1 overall pick will have to play an instrumental role, and it appears general manager James Jones and new head coach Monty Williams are doing everything they can to empower their franchise pillar.

Now that Media Day has come and gone, it’s time to take a look back at what was said, what goals are realistic and what we might expect from Ayton in 2019-20.

Let it rain

The next logical step in Ayton’s progress is expanding his range out to 3-point territory, and not surprisingly, it’s the one he’s most excited about.

“I’m definitely shooting the 3 this year, man, come on,” he said. “The NBA is changing dramatically. It’s getting faster and you’re gonna have to put up shots regardless, so you’re gonna have to be a player. The league is turning position-less, seven-footers like me are turning into guards, we’re jumping, switching, so yeah. You guys are gonna see a lot.”

Earlier in the summer, Ayton had also talked about snatching rebounds and taking them down the court himself, so this comment about seven-foot guards is less than ideal. Again, we really must introduce this cart to its horse before things get out of hand, but Ayton progressing as a stretch-5 is hardly a shocking development.

In his rookie season, Ayton took a grand total of four 3-pointers (late in the shot clock) and missed them all. In college, however, he took 35 3s in 35 games and made 34.3 percent of them.

While former head coach Igor Kokoskov simplified the game for Ayton as much as possible, Monty Williams will allow him the freedom to let it fly more often … in certain scenarios, at least.

“In our offense, there’s a number of opportunities in the trail spot where he can knock down the 3 or transfer the ball,” Williams said. “He’s worked on it, and my philosophy is if you’ve worked on it, do it. If you have it in your game and you’ve spent the time and put the sweat equity in, do it in the game.”

Williams said assistant coach Mark Bryant worked with Ayton, Aron Baynes and the team’s other bigs on their 3-point shooting over the summer and acknowledged that that’s where the league is heading. Baynes took a team-oriented approach on the idea of launching from deep.

“It really comes down to what’s a good shot for the team,” Baynes said. “I’m not gonna go out there and force anything, but at the same time I’m not gonna turn down an open shot if it’s within our system and it’s what we need to do.”

Ayton, conversely, was much more gung-ho about expanding on his range and Monty’s faith in that range.

“He be right there when I’m shooting all them 3s in practice,” Ayton said. “I’ll be working out and he’s right there watching. I put up a lot of 3s in these workouts, so it’s kinda opening my eyes that they really want me to shoot these 3s. So I’m not gonna hesitate.”

Whether this is the right course of action for a player who was lethal around the basket remains to be seen. After all, this is a guy who converted 71.2 percent of his shots within five feet of the basket, which ranked eighth out of 148 players with at least 200 attempts from that range last year.

“He’s a super talented, big-bodied athlete,” Baynes raved. “He’s able to step out and knock some shots down, but at the same time he knows where his bread is buttered and what he wants to do.”

Hopefully the butter isn’t in that same cart, because it sounds like the 3s are going to fly.

Leadership

Because Ayton was such a highly touted prospect, because he was the No. 1 pick in a loaded draft class and because he’s one of two indispensable cornerstones on the Suns’ roster, it feels natural to pigeonhole him into a leadership role.

Monty Williams has just about had enough of this cart that refuses to learn its place behind the horse.

“Deandre’s like…17 years old,” he scoffed. “I don’t expect him to be a leader. I think that’s one of the things that the NBA has done to young players. I want him to be consistent in his work ethic and his approach, what he does on the floor, in film sessions, with Mark Bryant. I think the leadership will grow over time. There’s moments where he can [lead], but to cast that on him I think is unfair for a young guy that has shown great promise.

“We just want him to focus on being more consistent. Leadership will come, but I think that’s years away.”

Ayton is actually 21 years old, but the point remains: Just because a player is naturally talented and will grow to be one of the most important players on the team doesn’t mean he’s a natural-born leader. That takes time, and shouldn’t be forced. Even Devin Booker, in his fifth year, is still learning how to lead since he’s only 22 and has never won 30 games in a season.

For his part, Ayton was surprised to hear his coach’s words repeated back to him.

“That’s actually crazy he said that,” Ayton replied. “He’s been on my tail this summer about being a leader. What? He said that? That’s crazy. ‘Cause he’s been on my butt about that. Been teaching me a lot about that and adding to my wisdom. We always have these sit-down talks where he instills in me a lot of wisdom on how to approach this game more maturely and things I’d never heard coming into the league.”

Still, there’s a difference between having a talk about learning to lead one day and doing it come Oct. 23 when the new season begins. Williams’ secrecy on the subject also speaks to his desire to let that growth occur naturally, without influence from outside the locker room.

For the time being, simply letting his game talk is the best way for the big man to naturally develop into a more charismatic role.

“It ain’t trying, I just do,” he said. “By example. If you see me doing it, just follow. I’m not gonna do nothing to take away from the team or take away from myself. So if you see me doing good, just do it….we got Baynes and Rubio and Book to do all the talking, I’ll just lead. Just lead by example.”

The Baynes of Ayton’s existence

Aron Baynes was brought to Phoenix for his defensive mindset, physical toughness, hard screen-setting and overall experience, but his presence serves a secondary purpose that may be just as important: mentoring Deandre Ayton and instilling the right values in him.

Richaun Holmes was a quality backup center, but he was also fighting to carve out his niche in the league and earn his next contract. Baynes is only on the Suns’ books for one season, but as an established NBA player with value for any team, he can devote a little more time to helping Ayton access the beast mode seen intermittently throughout his rookie year.

Baynes, an Australian brick house who played rugby before basketball, isn’t afraid to take a hit. He doesn’t shy away from contact on his bone-crushing screens, nor does he back down from taking charges or contesting opponents at the rim — even when it leaves him on the wrong end of a poster dunk. Now a member of the rebuilding Suns, he won’t shy away from who he is.

“Just continuing to do what I do,” he said. “Going out there and trying to lead by example. But at the same time I’ve also had the luxury of seeing what it takes to win an NBA championship. I’ve seen what it is when you’re in a rebuilding phase and what it can lead to …. There’s a lot of different things that I’ve experienced and I’m just trying to impart some of that on these guys and trying to help them take those next steps to going in there and competing on a nightly basis.”

For anyone who watched the Suns last season, that “competing on a nightly basis” part probably stings, since this team was nowhere close to doing so. Toughening up the young core will help everyone, but especially Ayton, whose rim protection numbers were noticeably poor. Too often, he’d fail to even contest layups, either because he wasn’t mentally locked in and out of position, or because he was physically fatigued. Luckily, he already sees the benefit of having Baynes to learn from.

“Being more of a diesel, man!” he said. “Taking some beating. I might get my little butt whupped, a couple times knocked down to the ground, but it’ll teach me how to bounce back up. It’s about time I headbutt with somebody in practice, man, just go at ‘em, but also look up to them and respect them in the same way. It’s been a while and I’m excited. I need it.”

Banging around the paint in practice is one thing, but Baynes’ defensive instincts need to rub off on the Suns’ starting center as well. Ayton is rightfully excited about launching 3s this season, but he’ll only reach his true NBA ceiling if he starts to view the defensive end of the floor with the same verve his new mentor does.

“Being able to go out there and stop a team on defense,” Baynes answered when asked what brings him the most joy on a basketball court. “It takes all five guys to be on a string and if you can go out there and make guys take bad shots or tough, contested shots, or you get a turnover, it’s when you get those back-to-back-to-back that a game really turns. That’s when the fun really starts. You kinda come down, the offense is a bit more flowing, guys are spreading the ball, the shots start falling and it all has to do with the defensive end in my mind. So that’s what I’m looking forward to going out there and really trying to instill in these guys as well.”

Expectations for Year 2

With all the fuss over Deandre Ayton’s potential as a stretch-5, as a leader, as a rim protector, as a No. 1 pick, as the next David Robinson, as the first truly elite Suns center … the main thing for such a young player needs to be finding that consistency — a buzzword at Media Day in Phoenix.

“The improvement that all young players make: consistency — in approach, in effort, but most importantly, how he responds to the challenges,” James Jones said. “When you play 82 games there are ups and downs, and when you look at his production last year, he was really, really good. And if you ask him, he wants to go to another level. So as long as he comes in here every day and continues to work on his body and his mind, and takes the challenge to lead by example, that’s enough growth for me.”

For Ayton, that consistency starts with strength and conditioning. It’s customary for rookies to get tossed around from time to time, but for such a chiseled, 7-foot-1 big, that can’t be the case in the near future.

The Bahamian behemoth said he feels a bit stronger heading into year two after spending a good amount of time in the weight room, and that coach hasn’t added or taken away weight so that he can maintain his strength while still adding to his game on the court.

“I think it’s time for him to take it to the next level and I think he puts that same pressure on himself,” Booker said. “I think people slept on his rookie year and how good it really was. Like, 60 percent from the field, 16 and 10 — those are unheard of numbers. The media’s gonna push any story they want to push, but I think it’s better for him to be in the position that he is, to be around a good group of guys that all want him to succeed.”

Produce in the paint, finish at the basket, be tougher, be stronger, shoot 3s, defend the rim, switch onto the perimeter, help the team win, have the right mindset, be more mature, find the right balance between inside and outside — the list of demands for a modern big can be dizzying, even for the most experienced of players.

Though his areas for improvement and refinement are extensive, Ayton has the tools and the accompanying talent to take massive strides in 2019-20. The 3-point stroke will likely be a work-in-progress, as will the leadership, but Baynes’ influence should help him narrow his focus back down when all these expanding duties start to feel overwhelming. That starts on defense.

“He’s so gifted athletically that he can also have a massive impact on the defensive end,” Baynes said. “I kind of take pride in starting on the defensive end and if we can really get him to key in on that and help us on that even more, then it’s gonna fuel our offense. Once Ricky and Devin get the ball and they’re able to get out and push it in transition, then he can get out and run with those guys as well. So just going out there and trying to help him develop as much as I can.”