Over two weeks ago we raised the question of who would step up for the Houston Dynamo during the World Cup stretch without Brad Davis and Boniek Garcia. This stretch began in earnest on May 21st with the match away to DC United and could run as long as the July 4th match against New York Red Bulls.

The Dynamo need a minimum 2.1 PPG at home over the remainder of the season

The answer, thus far, appears to be “nobody”. In the aftermath of the Dynamo’s 3-0 loss to the Colorado Rapids on Sunday evening, the team has lost three straight by a combined score of 8-0. The Dynamo have generally looked toothless in the attack and hapless at the back.

The Dynamo have now lost more games (8) than any other team in MLS, they have the worst goals against in the league (27), they are tied with the Montreal Impact for the second worst goal differential in the league (-11) – only Chivas USA is worse at -12. Their goal differential on the road is -12, at home it is +1.

The Dynamo are also fifth worst in goals scored in the league, despite having played more games (15) than everyone bar the Philadelphia Union and FC Dallas. With all of the negative numbers, is the season already over for the Dynamo?

The answer should be “yes”, and if the Dynamo played in the Western Conference it would absolutely be a resounding “yes”. However, in the Eastern Conference as bad as the Dynamo have been – and let’s face it, at times they have been pretty bad – oddly enough, the answer appears to be “no”.

On the basis of the standings, the Dynamo are still very much in the running for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference where up is down this season, and down is up. No team has found consistency in the East this season. This past weekend was indicative of this: New England, who have been on fire, lost to Montreal, who have been abysmal. As of Monday morning, the Dynamo sit in 4th place in the standings in the Eastern Conference on 17 points out of 15 matches.

The standings are fairly meaningless, however, as the team with the most number of matches played has played five more than the team with the least. To consider how the Dynamo are positioned for the playoffs requires examining the far more indicative points per game (“PPG”). On a PPG basis, the standings look like this:

# Team Points Games PPG 1 New England Revolution 23 13 1.77 2 DC United 21 13 1.62 3 Toronto FC 10 16 1.60 4 Sporting Kansas City 19 14 1.36 5 Columbus Crew 16 13 1.23 6 Houston Dynamo 17 15 1.13 7 Chicago Fire 13 12 1.08 8 New York Red Bulls 15 14 1.07 9 Philadelphia Union 14 15 0.93 10 Montreal Impact 10 12 0.83

The Dynamo currently sit in 6th place overall from the standpoint of PPG. If the Dynamo played in the Western Conference, where they will almost certainly be next season, they would be 8th of 9 teams with only Chivas USA keeping them from the bottom.

Digging a little deeper, the Dynamo have a PPG of 1.86 at home and only 0.5 on the road. Their four road points this season came at the expense of what have been two of the three worst teams in the league this season: a draw at Philadelphia and a win at Chivas USA.

Houston has played 15 and has 19 matches remaining. Of those 19 matches, 10 are at home and 9 on the road. That is a total of 57 possible points on offer. The lowest point total required to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference in the past three seasons was 46 in 2011. The highest point total required was 53 in 2012.

In order to hit 46 points, the Dynamo would need to record 1.53 PPG over the remainder of the season. Reaching 53 points would require a 1.89 PPG average over the remaining 19 matches. 1.53 PPG looks a number that could be achievable, however on the basis of the performance so far this season, 1.89 looks extremely unlikely.

The question is, would 46 points cut it this year or would an even lower point total be enough to squeak by? If Columbus, currently in 5th place in the PPG standings, continued playing at the same clip then they would finish the season on 42 points. That would leave Houston needing to reach 43 points which is a slightly more manageable 1.36 PPG.

May 25, 2014; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Houston Dynamo goalkeeper Tally Hall (1) holds onto the ball with midfielder Servando Carrasco (17) after a call during the first half against the San Jose Earthquakes at Buck Shaw Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Digging down yet another layer, however; to say that the Dynamo have been poor on the road this season (or any season in recent time for that matter) would be charitable. They have gone through Chivas USA already, so cannot take another three points off of a significantly weaker opponent on the road.

Their remaining road schedule is challenging: Montreal, Toronto FC, Seattle, Columbus, Sporting Kansas City, Philadelphia, New York, Toronto, Chicago.

On paper, the Montreal match is winnable, however the Dynamo have a poor track record on the road at Montreal. The Dynamo do not match up well with New York or Toronto, or Seattle for that matter. That leaves matches at Columbus, Kansas City and Chicago where the Dynamo might realistically secure points as we look at it today.

How many might they take out of these road games? Let’s be charitable and say the Dynamo take 5 points from their remaining 9 road matches (one point above their total over the first 8 road matches). That would leave the Dynamo needing 21 points out of 10 home matches, or 2.1 PPG, in order to hit 43 points; if 43 points turns out to be enough. To hit 46 points would require 24 points at home or a 2.4 PPG rate.

How viable is this? In 2012, when the Dynamo were literally unbeatable at home, the team had a home PPG total of 2.29. Hitting 2.4 PPG would require the Dynamo to be better at home than they were in 2012. Again, this season their home PPG has been only 1.86.

The Dynamo have not yet benefited from the Houston heat this year; so the grueling summer months could yet lift the Dynamo to better home results than we have seen thus far this season. 2.1 PPG, at a minimum, should be a target the Dynamo are capable of hitting over the remainder of the season, but the quality of play demonstrated by the side will need to improve significantly.

Conclusion: is it possible that the Dynamo will eke out a wildcard spot this season? Yes, at this stage it is still possible thanks to the generally poor play across the Eastern Conference. Is it probable, however? At this stage, no it is not unless the Dynamo either begin to pick up points on the road or play to near perfection at home over the remainder of the season.

Gut reaction: Sometimes, a team has a season that for one reason or another is not meant to be. Where everything seems to be stacked against the team. Given the number of injuries, the questionable red cards and the debatable penalties that this team has seen, this is feeling very much like one of those seasons.