CITY of New York and Surrounding Area Congressional Districts - Numbers from the Benchmark Politics model, which predicts a 57%-43% outcome in the state of New York.

Hey guys. So I have noticed that I have gotten a lot of traffic from Dailykos. I posted here a week ago to talk about the projections for New York. At Benchmark Politics, we take polling and apply it to a translation model that looks at demographics, education, and tons of other stats at the county level and creates county level expected results so that you can follow along on Primary/Caucus night and see how a candidate is doing early. Using this benchmark model, we can then make a call for who will win a contest with only 10-20% of precincts reporting in the majority of cases. This methodology has been extremely successful and accurate. Furthermore, the model itself has gained a huge amount of accuracy as we now are modeling based on 2k counties that have already voted. I won’t speak too much on the county projections, but you can find them here:

New York Final County-by-County Benchmark Guide - Clinton 57% - Sanders 43%

We wanted to make the actual modeling accessible in a format that all of you here at Kos can read easily, in diary form. I’ve been a member of Dailykos since the Obama convention speech days in 2004. Here we will focus on the city congressional districts, but you can read the entire state at the following link. You can use these numbers to plan and optimize canvassing, such as the case where you focus on congressional districts that are near delegate thresholds:

New York City with a link to New York State Congressional District Projections

I’ll lead in with this… This is NOT a Pro-Bernie or Pro-Hillary Diary. This is a pro-information and pro-access diary. Both campaigns can use this in their ground game to minimize the damage to their delegate count and maximize their damage to their opponent’s delegate counts. Think about it this way: If you are canvassing the Bronx, you may think twice about canvassing CD13 and 12 because they aren’t near thresholds, and instead may decide to canvass CD11 and 14 because changing their margins by 3-5% can result in a swing of 4 delegates just in these CDs alone!

That said, here is the actual guide:

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Hello everyone!

(It has Congressional Districts 17-27)

Today, we have a special for you. We're going to do two articles on the congressional districts of New York. The reason why it is so important to focus on the congressional districts of New York is because New York allocates a large number of its state delegates based on who wins congressional districts. See the following:

New York Pledged Delegates

State Popular Vote Delegates: 54

Congressional District Delegates: 163

Statewide Pledged PLEOs: 30

Total: 247

As you can see, this means that the winner of each congressional district is literally three times as important as the winner of the state! To make matters tougher, the delegate allocation rules mean that candidates have to hit certain thresholds to achieve net delegates!

There are 3 kinds of delegate totals in New York:

5 Delegate Districts

3-2 Split - Winning candidate achieves > 50%, < 70% of the CD Vote

4-1 Split - Winning candidate achieves >= 70% of the CD vote, < 85%

5-0 Split - Winning candidate achieves >= 85% of the CD vote

6 Delegate Districts

3-3 Split - Winning candidate achieves < 58.4% of the CD vote

4-2 Split - Winning Candidate achieves >= 58.4% of the CD vote, < 75%

5-1 Split - Winning candidate achieves >= 75% of the CD vote, < 85%

6-0 Split - Winning candidate achieves >= 85% of the CD vote

7 Delegate Districts

4-3 Split - Winning candidate achieves >50%, < 64.3% of the CD vote

5-2 Split - Winning candidate achieves >= 64.3% of the CD vote, < 78.5%

6-1 Split - Winning candidate achieves >= 78.5% of the CD vote, <85%

7-0 Split - Winning candidate achieves >=85% of the CD vote

As you can see, this means that TONS of congressional districts will draw!

Now, lets look at the actual district breakdown of delegates, curtesy of the Green papers. Keep in mind CDs 1-16 are in the city proper and CDs 17-27 are in the State of NY:

One thing to note here is that outside of the City, districts 17-27 have 5 uneven delegate districts. In the city, there are only 3. This bodes well for Sanders, partly, because of his better performances in the state and the fewer blowouts expected there. However, a 6 delegate district can be very good for a candidate expecting blowouts, because once reaching the lower end of the threshold, they get two net delegates for a win (4:2) instead of one (3:2).

With no further adieu, here are the projections for the State of New York using our benchmark models.

Please keep in mind - We do not stand as strongly on these as we do our county projections. We have never done CD projections and because we don't have the granularity of precinct level data, there is a lot of reasoned guesswork here using our benchmark numbers and weighting them/combining them, due to the fact that congressional districts cut through counties.