The Golden Globes provide the highest-profile pit stop on the way to the Academy Awards, and this year’s ceremony is perhaps the most advantageously timed edition yet: The day after NBC airs the Globes on Sunday, voting begins for the Oscar nominations. A win, then, will help contenders remain front of mind for academy members filling out their ballots on Monday, and there will be plenty of those winners to go around, since the Globes spread the wealth by splitting their biggest races into separate categories for dramas and comedy/musicals.

Still, for as often as the Globes add their imprimatur to an already presumed Oscar front-runner, this show can still have upsets. The Globes are voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a quirky group of around 90 journalists with only one academy member in its ranks. These individuals have their own tastes, and below, your Carpetbagger tries to think like an H.F.P.A. voter to guess the outcome of the 14 film races.

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Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”

Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”

Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Rosamund Pike, “A Private War”

Though the eventual Oscar race for best actress will probably include Olivia Colman for “The Favourite,” the Globes have her competing in the comedy category, so this particular contest will come down to the veteran Close and the pop star Gaga. Close is a 15-time Globe nominee who’s won twice for television performances, while Gaga won the only Globe she was nominated for before, thanks to her performance in the 2015 TV show “American Horror Story: Hotel.” Globes voters know that Gaga would deliver a capital-M moment if she wins, and that will probably tip the scales in her favor.