'It is difficult to keep anything secret,' Berlusconi tells newspaper as media mogul eyes election as PM for fourth time

Silvio Berlusconi has given the clearest indication yet that he is returning to active politics and will seek re-election as Italian prime minister for the fourth time in 2013.

In an interview published in an Italian newspaper on Saturday, the scandal-plagued media mogul said that without him, the Freedom People party (FP) he created risked taking just 8% of votes in elections scheduled next year, down from 38% in 2008.

If that happened, "what sense would 18 years of political commitment have?" said Berlusconi, 75. Apparently referring to his candidacy next year, he added: "I wanted to make the announcement later on, possibly at the start of the autumn, but here it is difficult to keep anything secret."

Berlusconi stepped back from an active role in party leadership after he resigned as prime minister in November 2011 in the wake of a series of sex scandals, leaving the presidential palace by the back door to avoid jeering crowds after tendering his resignation. He was replaced by a technocratic government led by Mario Monti, who has promised to resign before scheduled elections in 2013.

With a Sicilian lawyer, Angelino Alfano, at the helm of FP, the party scored poorly in local elections held in May. Polls commissioned by Berlusconi have reportedly shown that his return would push the party's vote back up from 10% to 28%.

Berlusconi, who has started jogging and plans to lose 8kg by the autumn, has been declared fit to run for office by his doctor.

Pierluigi Bersani, leader of the centre-left Democratic party, which polls suggest is the frontrunner in the next election, called the prospect of Berlusconi standing "chilling".

Gianfranco Fini, the former leader of the National Alliance whose desertion from FP in 2010 weakened Berlusconi, said: "Italians have understood that this is no longer the time for miraculous promises, unfulfilled commitments and huge conflicts of interest."

One analyst said Berlusconi was unlikely to win enough votes to become prime minister but could be a kingmaker or settle for a ministerial post in the next government. James Walston, professor of politics at the American University in Rome, said: "He has an internal psychological desire to be leader but his practical sense tells him he needs to be on centre-stage to protect his interests by conditioning the reform of the justice system and keeping tabs on Italy's state TV."

Berlusconi presided over a sluggish Italian economy but Monti's recipe of spending cuts and tax hikes to reduce Italy's deficit has hurt the economy further this year while failing to appease the markets.

But a second analyst said Italians were still backing Monti. Raffaele de Mucci, professor of political science at Rome's Luiss University, said: "There is little faith in Italy's parties, particularly those like the Freedom People who would rather use public spending to win votes."

Berlusconi is standing trial for allegedly paying an underage dancer for sex at the "bunga bunga" parties he held at his mansion outside Milan.

In an apparent bid to clean up his reputation ahead of his return to politics, party officials are urging Nicole Minetti, the former TV showgirl accused of recruiting girls for Berlusconi's parties, to resign from Lombardy regional authority, where she is a councillor for FP.