Team Aggregate Opponents PPG Opponent PPG Std Dev 2002 Bucs 21.9 12.4 -2.6 2013 Seahawks 22.1 14.4 -2.5

Up to this point, we have been comparing the two defenses performance against league averages. But neither the Seahawks nor the Bucs played every opposing offense in the league. We need to get specific about which offenses they played, and how they did relative to the averages of those offenses.

The Bucs 16 regular season opponents scored an average of 21.9 points per game, above the league average (21.7). Seattle faced opponents who averaged slightly below the league average (23.4). Tampa faced relatively stiffer competition in terms of offenses they faced, and stood out a bit more against those offenses.

Let’s step away from the regular season for a moment though and just see how both teams did against the best offenses in the league that year. The best versus the best.

Team GMs VS TOP 10 OFF (incl playoffs) +/- Opp Avg 2002 Bucs 10 -9.4 2013 Seahawks 3 -19.9



Tampa faced a remarkable number of top-flight offenses in 2002. Nearly 53% of their 19 games were against offenses in the top ten in the league. They held those teams to a combined 16.4 points per game. That was well above their season average of 12.2. Seattle, on the other hand, dropped their points against to just 10 ppg against the three top offenses they faced, including the top scoring team in NFL history in the biggest game. They stepped up their game considerably against these great offenses, and the team was 3-0 in those games. The Bucs, on the other hand, gave up 17+ points in seven of those 10 games against top competition, and lost four of them to finish just one game above .500 (6-4) in those games. Tampa faced a remarkable number of top-flight offenses in 2002. Nearly 53% of their 19 games were against offenses in the top ten in the league. They held those teams to a combined 16.4 points per game. That was well above their season average of 12.2. Seattle, on the other hand, dropped their points against to just 10 ppg against the three top offenses they faced, including the top scoring team in NFL history in the biggest game. They stepped up their game considerably against these great offenses, and the team was 3-0 in those games. The Bucs, on the other hand, gave up 17+ points in seven of those 10 games against top competition, and lost four of them to finish just one game above .500 (6-4) in those games. The Bucs gave up 37 points over three playoff games, beating Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb and Rich Gannon. Seattle gave up 40 points, beating Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick and Peyton Manning. My inclination was to go in the Bucs direction when I saw how many top offenses they played, but their performance against that competition raised questions about whether they were feasting on the weaklings to post their gaudy overall numbers. Seattle raised their level of play against the best. Tampa did not, so Seattle wins this round.

Round 4: Takeaways

Team League Avg Takeaways/Game Takeaways/Game Std Dev League Rank 2002 Bucs 1.8 2.4 1.5 3 2013 Seahawks 1.6 2.4 2.29 1



Seattle finished the season ranked #1 in points allowed, yards allowed and takeaways, the first team to do that since the 1985 Bears. The Bucs were third in the league in takeaways in 2002, and were far behind Seattle in relative terms. Seattle wins this round easily.