What Ron Paul meant

Ron Paul’s statement this afternoon about his future plans is so suitably vague that it’s open to interpretation.

While it's been reported that he's now out of the race, there’s no mention in the announcement of ending his campaign or even suspending it -- the preferred language of candidates who are dropping out but want to retain their delegates at the convention.

But by choosing not to campaign anymore “in primaries in states that have not yet voted” – a list that includes the biggest prizes on the election calendar, Texas and California – it looks like Paul is moving to preserve the gains of his movement before they begin to erode.

His campaign has achieved a remarkable degree of success this year: His share of the vote has increased in most states – dramatically, in many cases – and his supporters have ascended into positions of party leadership.

Yet for weeks now, the bulk of news reports have focused on disorderly GOP state conventions where his supporters shouted down and booed speakers supporting Mitt Romney. This past weekend alone, there were unruly episodes in Arizona, Virginia and Oklahoma. To many in the party, the Paul movement is looking less like a committed and well-organized insurgency and more like an uncontrollable mob.

While the Romney campaign has wisely stayed out of the fray, the reports have raised questions about the effect it will have on the national convention in Tampa, where the GOP has an interest in a smooth-running affair that’s free of televised chaos.

My own sense is that Paul is sending a tacit message to the GOP establishment that he’s not interested in subverting the convention – he’s made his point and is standing down.

But he is bound by unique constraints as to what he can say, and how he can say it. He can’t publicly drop or formally suspend his bid as long as so many of his backers continue to harbor the belief that he can still win the nomination. He doesn’t have an interest in playing by the established rules anyway – he never has, and would lose credibility with his base if he tried.

In any case, the ball’s in the GOP’s court now -- next up is the discussion for the party platform and a convention speaking slot for the Texas congressman.