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Perhaps the Wynne government has put its faith in the upbeat comments from Chris Ragan’s Ecofiscal Commission, which tried hard recently to dismiss the risks associated with the California system (also known as the Western Climate Initiative). Although the system is “not without its flaws,” and the auction failures and the legal challenge might suggest the system is “flailing and failing,” the brave commentary from Ecofiscal concluded “these concerns are probably overblown.”

If the Wynne government is pinning its cap–and-trade revenue dreams on the word “probably,” then the Liberals are probably setting themselves up for disappointment — and a major cash shortage.

The end may be near. A new report says there’s a “big question mark over Canada’s energy future.”

On the other hand, if carbon trading does prove successful in coming years, there may be more political risks. Jordan Brennan, an economist with Unifor, recently wrote a commentary warning that while the province may dream of collecting $1.9-billion a year in carbon-trade revenues, taking that money out of the pockets of industry might be bad for workers. “Unifor is acutely aware off the threat of an industrial exodus,” wrote Brennan. No kidding. To solve the problem, he called for offsetting policies, including subsidizing the hardest-hit industries, a border tax on imports from jurisdictions without carbon taxes, and using the revenues to fund worker transition.

Moving along the carbon craziness road, there’s the Dakota Access Pipeline opposition movement. Big demos are set for Tuesday, with the rights of indigenous peoples said to be at stake. But the real battle is over climate and carbon, with Dakota Access set to become the next Keystone XL.