The Red Sox know that the pick can be a franchise-changer. In 1994, they selected lanky, glove-first shortstop Nomar Garciaparra out of Georgia Tech with the No. 12 pick. Of course, six years prior to that, they picked pitcher Tom Fischer at No. 12 overall; the lefthander’s career stalled out before he ever reached the big leagues.

The Major League Baseball draft kicks off Thursday night, with the Red Sox hoping they can salvage some fruits from a disappointing 2015 season by finding an important part of their future, starting with their first selection at No. 12 overall.


Such extreme outcomes are par for the course in the draft. Dozens of scouts scour the country, evaluating thousands of prospects and helping to shape a draft board that runs 40 rounds deep, betting on big league futures that are usually three to six years away. That distant horizon yields an enormous unknown.

A two-year sampling of Red Sox drafts offers a fairly striking case study in that phenomenon. In 2010, the Sox had three picks in the first and supplemental first rounds, then spent big on their second-, third, and fourth-round picks. So far, the resulting crop of Kolbrin Vitek, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Sean Coyle, and Garin Cecchini — a group that received combined bonuses in excess of $9 million — has made little big league impact beyond Workman’s contributions out of the bullpen in the 2013 championship run.

A year later, the Red Sox again swung for the fences. This time, they connected, selecting Mookie Betts (fifth round), Jackie Bradley Jr. (supplemental first round), Travis Shaw (ninth round), Blake Swihart (first round), and Matt Barnes (first round) along with Henry Owens (supplemental first round) and Noe Ramirez (fourth round).


The same people were in charge of the draft and followed very similar processes but with very different outcomes.

“You’re as thorough as you can be,” said Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, “and then you need a little fortune to go your way, too.”

Dombrowski recognizes that the draft represents a stock market plunge rather than an interest-bearing savings account. At a time when young talent is the game’s most prized commodity — whether for homegrown roster construction or for trade purposes — he’s comfortable with trusting his evaluators in the pursuit of any demographic.

Dombrowski’s last three years with the Tigers support the notion. Detroit had five first-round picks that it used to take two college pitchers, one high school pitcher, one high school position player, and one college position player. With the Tigers and the Marlins before that, Dombrowski’s teams didn’t shy away from the riskiest demographic — high school pitchers with big arms — if it meant the greatest return.

“Talent, upside, risk — it’s all intermingled,” said Dombrowski. “I am more of an upside guy than I am a safety guy. Since 1978, when I got started, that’s the way that veteran scouts taught me. I’ve always carried that, because I’ve seen that you win with stars.”

In many ways, the open-mindedness to any number of player demographics mirrors the Sox’ own approach. There’s not a clear bias in terms of the type of player they’ve taken under amateur scouting director Mike Rikard (who will be overseeing his second draft) and, before him, vice president of amateur and international scouting Amiel Sawdaye.


When the Sox had four of the top 40 picks in 2011, they took a college arm (Barnes), a high school position player (Swihart), a high school pitcher (Owens), and a college position player (Bradley). They’ve had six subsequent first-round picks, taking two college position players (Deven Marrero, Andrew Benintendi), one college pitcher (Brian Johnson), two high school pitchers (Trey Ball, Michael Kopech), and a high school bat (Michael Chavis).

Since roughly 2005, the Sox haven’t drafted to fill holes in the organization but instead have tried to take players with the potential to make the biggest impact.

“We try to get the best talent regardless of the state of our farm system or our major league club,” said Rikard. “We’re going to try to take the best talent that’s available to us and really in any situation.”

How that translates this year remains anyone’s guess. In mock drafts — which sometimes qualify as only slightly more precise exercises than blindfolded dart-throwing — the Sox have been connected to numerous players.

Those names include high school outfielder Mickey Moniak (unlikely to be on the board when the Sox pick), University of Miami catcher Zack Collins, hard-throwing Louisville reliever Zack Burdi, high school righthander Ian Anderson out of upstate New York, and Boston College righthander Justin Dunn.

But if some of the names at the top of draft boards slide — perhaps high school pitcher Jason Groome from New Jersey or Louisville outfielder Corey Ray — the Sox might pounce.


There’s no clear target, as there’s no clear sense of who will be available. The Phillies have held their cards close to the vest as to whom they’ll take with the No. 1 overall pick, creating a trickle-down effect of uncertainty.

“I think typically in most years, you kind of have a little bit better of a gauge of what some of the teams in front of us are likely going to do,” said Rikard. “I think at this point, there’s still some gray area in front of us. The draft can kind of turn in several different ways, so to speak.

“It does seem to be a fairly deep draft. I think we’ve got a chance to get some good players, not only at the top but as the draft progresses.”

That, of course, is the unending hope in any year’s draft. Whether it comes to fruition is something that will be far more apparent around 2022.

Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him on twitter at @alexspeier.