BEIJING: A military conflict between China and Japan is looming, with neither willing to back down over a chain of islands, one of China's leading foreign policy experts has warned.

The spat over the Diaoyu (China), or Senkaku (Japan), Islands has escalated dramatically in the past month, with violent protests in China.

Demonstrators across the street from the United Nations in New York. Credit:AFP

But with a national election approaching in Japan, and a change of leadership in China, politicians on both sides have refused to step back from the brink, afraid of appearing weak. ''There is a danger of China and Japan having a military conflict,'' said Yan Xuetong, one of China's most influential foreign policy strategists, and a noted hawk. ''I do not see either side making concessions.''

He warned that unless one side backed down, there could be a repeat of the Falklands conflict in Asia. He said that China was tolerant with smaller powers. ''But the case of Japan is different,'' he said. ''There is history between us. Japan is a big power. So China can very naturally regard Japan as an equal. And if we are equal, you cannot poke us. You cannot make a mistake.''

Professor Yan is the dean of international relations at Tsinghua University, the elite college that schooled Chinese President Hu Jintao and his likely successor, Xi Jinping.

Chinese and Japanese diplomats have met this week for talks over the crisis, but no agreement has been reached. A spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry attacked Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda for telling reporters at the United Nations that the islands belonged to Japan. ''There are no territorial issues as such,'' he said. ''Therefore, there cannot be any compromise that represents a retreat from this position.''