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Brussa and others say continuing delays to approve oil export pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, climate change policies, damaged balance sheets, extensive layoffs, mean capital will flow elsewhere to take advantage of the oil price recovery.

Indeed, many fear damage from the combination of oil shock and climate policy uncertainty is permanent and that the Canadian sector will never again match past levels of activity.

“It probably will return in the U.S. first,” Brussa said. “We are perceived as not being terribly friendly toward the industry. The United States approved a number of LNG projects. We can’t even approve one. We can’t get a pipeline to tidewater. Everything seems to take so long here. Unless we send out some signals that we are a good place to do business, it’s going to be harder.”

Scott Sharabura, oil and gas strategy consultant at McKinsey & Co., said the oil downturn was so severe it left many oilsands investors “with a serious concern about the viability of investing in such a long-term, expensive asset.”

At best, new large oilsands projects are years away, and any new spending will be focused on debottlenecking — making facilities work harder — or small-scale expansions, he said.

“Downturns like this tend to stick with people for quite some time,” Sharabura said. “They get very nervous and very gun shy. There are a lot of places where they saw they got a bit ahead of themselves during the good times, and they don’t want that to happen again.”