11.10 am: Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis steps down from his post.

10.30 am: Alexis Tsipras is suddenly armed with sufficient amunition to turn down a proposal favouring strict austerity reforms after the Greeks voted in favor of the "no" option in the referendum. The shocking verdict not only renewed Grexit fears, but also saw the Euro getting hammered. Predicting the future of EU currency, Goldman Sachs said in one year's time, the euro will be fetching just 95 cents.



While sticking with its call for near-parity with the dollar, Goldman in a fresh note wrote: "This week's jump in the euro on news of the Greek referendum made no sense to us...We continue to see mounting tensions over Greece as a catalyst for the euro-dollar to go near parity, if contagion to other peripherals causes the European Central Bank (ECB) to accelerate quantitative easing."

By failing to repay its 1.5 billion euros debt, Greece became the first advanced nation to ever default to IMF.

9.15 am: As India became part of global risk off, opening with more red on the screen than green, Bank Nifty and Metal Index appear to be taking the maximum hit. Both Sensex and Nifty fell 1 percent in the first hour but weak crude was aiding oil marketing companies.

Samir Arora of Helios Capital does not think Greece referendum will materially impact Indian trades. The veteran who is has studied behavious of equities for the past 20 years remains firm believer in equity investment. India is in very good spot, he says.

Meanwhile, midcaps managed to cut some of its initial losses.

9.04 am: While most Indian market analysts believe Indian market is too far removed from developments in Greece, short-term knee-jerk impact is inevitable. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Vikas Khemani of Edeweiss rules out fear of FII outflows or rupee depreciation. But Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com warns short term traders to remain sellers.



Read more at: Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/greek-woes-won39t-impact-mkt-rupee-or-fii-flows-edelweiss_1808741.html?utm_source=ref_article

8.11 am: Grexit awalys existed as an option and the euphoria will probably last for a day, says eminent economist with Citi Willeum H Buiter. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, he said the No vote of Greek referendum clearly shows democarcy has overruled finance. He warns that the recovery seen in Europe will slip once again impacting global markets including India. However, Dr Buiter said India remains isolated from a direct impact of Greece outcome because of "excellent monetary policy adopted by the country."

7.18 am: First bit of good news has trickled in. Shanghai has opened 14 percent higher — possibly an impact of a flurry of official policy moves over the weekend. Investors in other regional markets however have sought safer havens for their investments after Greece voted 'No' to harsh bailout conditions.

BNP Paribas observed in a note that "The unexpected 'no' vote in the Greek referendum will produce significant uncertainty over the next 48 hours. It will be very difficult for a new deal to be struck without significant concessions from the Greeks while Tsipras' victory will make that unlikely," adding that the chance of a "Grexit" is now at 70 percent.

6.55 am: While scope of contagion could be limited, the currect situation can turn into an economic nightmare if the lenders don't restructure terms of loans agreement, says James Glassman of JP Morgan.

6.19 am: The euro fell sharply in early Asia-Pacific trading on Monday, losing about 1.4 percent against the US dollar. Indian market is expected to open lower. Nikkei has opened under big pressure along with Kospi. Analysts for Citi, Barclays and other banks said a Greek exit was now their base case though many experts are saying the fallout should be limited.

6.00 am: For those just tuning in, debt-laden Greece voted overnight in a historic referendum saying it wouldn't accept what they believe are strict austerity measures in lieu of a credit package from lenders.

The referendum was called by left-leaning Greek PM Alexis Tsipras who says he would use the vote as a tool to drive a harder bargain with lenders. He has, however, made clear he does not believe the mandate is against continuing membership in the Euro Area.

Analysts, however, are grappling with the implications this may have on Greece, the Eurozone as well as the broader global economy -- the term 'contagion' will now likely be used often.

For now, Greece, which has imposed strict capital controls and shut down banks, will be hoping to recieve emergency funds from euro partners in order to keep the house runnning and continue to make payments.

The IMF, ECB and major euro partners such as Germany and France have responded cautiously to the referendum, with many stakeholders slated to meet today or in the next few days.

5.46 am: The reaction from the Asian market is in. The Japanese Nikkei is down 1.5 percent in first trade. The Australian bogey, ASX 200, is down 0.8 percent.

5.45 am: Deutsche has come out with a note, forecasting various plausible scenarios going forward.

Its options: soft deal (creditors offering a softer program to Greece), stay-and-default (Greece defaults but stays in euro thanks to direct recapitalization of Greek banks by partners), new deal (impact of banks being closed leads to Syriza government being replaced by a new front -- and a fresh deal) and Grexit.

"In our view, Grexit and a new deal [are the likely scenarios] with equal probability," Deutsche says.

5.30 am: Asian markets are slated to open. Analysts expect risk assets to go down immediately in reaction to the Greece referendum overnight. Already, some turmoil is being witnessed in the currencies market, with the euro down 1.5 percent.

4.45 am: Here's CNBC's Catherine Boyle, on how global markets may react.

4.30 am: So what comes next? Grexit?

We are more likely to see something along the lines of the state of affairs that’s recently been described as Grimbo. (Greece in a state of limbo.)

Read an interesting piece on Quartz, on why no one knows what happens now.

4.00 am: Barclays warns of Grexit:

Barclays analysts have issued a research note, warning that Greece is likely to leave the euro.

"While Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande are scheduled to meet tomorrow, we argue that EMU exit now is the most likely scenario..." analysts wrote.

“The ECB Governing Council will meet on Monday to decide on emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). We would expect ECB’s GC to shut down ELA at the latest by 20 July."

"Assuming that all of the pledged collateral at the ECB is recorded at (close to) par on Greek banks’ balance sheets and that current average haircut on collateral is 50 percent, then retention of the collateral by the Eurosystem would translate into a more than euro 30 billion loss for the banks.

"This alone would wipe out shareholders’ equity. The Greek central bank will eventually need to print its own currency in order to inject new liquidity and capital”.

3.30 am: Grexit 'off the table': PM Tsipras

While stating the referendum result proves 'democracy cannot be blackmailed', Greek PM Alexis Tsipras made it clear the referendum was not a vote on a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone and said such a move was "off the table completely".

2.30 am: Final results show Greece has voted overwhelmingly against (61 percent) the prospect of recieving further bailout money from creditors, at terms it believes are harsh.

Initial reactions:

Greek PM Tsipras tells voters:

"I'm fully aware the mandate you gave me is not one of a rupture with Europe but a mandate to strengthen our negotiating position to seek a viable solution."

"This is not a mandate of rupture with Europe, but a mandate that bolsters our negotiating strength to achieve a viable deal."

The European Commission "respects" the result of the Greece bailout referendum, it said in a short statement on Sunday

Eurogroup presidentJeroen Dijsselbloem:

"I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece. For recovery of the Greek economy, difficult measures and reforms are inevitable. We will now wait for the initiatives of the Greek authorities. The Eurogroup will discuss the state of play on Tuesday 7 July."



1.05 am: The euro falls 1.58 percent versus the us dollar to 1.0963 on news that Greece is almost likely to cast its 'No' vote.

1.00 am: Reactions start pouring in. Wolfgang Schaeuble, the finance minister of Germany, which has led the fight to keep the euro dream from crumbling, says the Greek PM was "leading the Greek people down the path of hopelessness".

He adds that it was 'hard to imagine' talks on a new bailout programme after the referendum result.

12.30 am: It appears that Greece has definitively decided to vote against creditors. As per latest numbers, from 58 percent votes that have been counted, 61.28 percent of voters have cast the 'No' vote.

While it's almost clear the debt-laden nation is likely to say no to a bailout it sees as imposing economy-draining austerity measures, further developments from hereon are unclear.

For instance, while PM Tsipras is likely to meet creditors from a strengthened position, it remains unclear what the Eurozone and IMF's response will be to the latest development.

Further, when will Greece lift capital controls that have crippled daily life of its ordinary citizens.

And finally, will Greece take the referendum as a cue to want to give up on the euro and possibly go back to the drachma?

These questions will likely to play themselves out over the next few days and weeks.

11.45 pm: Mohamed El-Erian tweets:

'If this historic 'no' win is confirmed, look initially for a general selloff in global equities, along with price pressures on the bonds issued by Greece, other peripheral Eurozone economies and emerging markets.'

11.30 pm: Here's an update that should spell bad news for the euro. With 33 percent of votes being counted, 60.91 percent of Greeks have said 'no'.

10.00 pm: A total of three private opinion polls are now forecasting the 'No' vote to be ahead.

Here's a Reuters report.

Opinion polls released after Greece's bailout referendum on Sunday showed the 'No' vote ahead, suggesting voters had defied warnings from across Europe that rejection of the creditors' terms would set their country on a path out of the euro.

No exit polls were conducted, but three opinion polls by GPO, Metron Analysis and MRB all showed the 'No' camp' ahead by three points. A poll by Marc estimated 49.5 to 54.5 percent of Greeks voted 'No' compared to 45.5 to 50.5 percent voting 'Yes', based on surveys conducted through the week.

The polls were released after voting ended on Sunday because of a ban on the publication of polls on the day before a vote is held.

Nikos Filis, parliamentary spokesman for the ruling Syriza party said the result of the opinion polls would allow the government to move ahead quickly to reach a deal with creditors.

"I think this is guidance for the government," he said after the polls came out.

9.50 pm: "Even if it is a 'No' vote, I don't know how much Greeks will have the ability to stay away from the negotiating table. Liquidity will continue to remain ample. So while it's going to be a risk-off tomorrow, it will be risk-on soon after," says Andrew Holland of Ambit Capital.

He added that should Indian equities fall in the aftermath of a 'No' vote, he would like to buy at Nifty 8,000.

9.45 pm: 'We're clearly hoping for a 'Yes' vote simply for the sake of risk assets. In case of 'No', you don't know what will happen tomorrow or even thereafter," Narayan adds.

9.40 pm: The 'No' vote will lead to a flight of capital from risk assets such as stocks. The euro could weaken, the dollar could strengthen, while European bond yields may plummet, says Ananth Narayan of Standard Chartered.

9.30 pm: If the 'No' vote comes through, it would bolster PM Tsipras' negotiating position with respect to creditors. However, the PM has for now made it clear that while he is in favour of seeking more favourable terms for a bailout, he is not in favour of exiting the euro.

9.25 pm: An opinion poll by a private Greek newscaster, which collated data from would-be voters yesterday, today published the results from its survey. The results: a slender lead for the 'No' vote (51.5 percent).

9.20 pm: The first official projections will come out by 11.30pm India time. While final results are expected to be out by 2.30pm.

9.15 pm: In an interview with CNBC, Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis sounded confident of obtaining a majority 'no' vote. He also said in the event of a 'no' vote, the government would be able to strike a deal with its creditors "within 24 hours".

In the event of a 'yes' vote, the Greek government's legitimacy will be severely undermined. The government has even threatened to resign in such a possibility.

9.10 pm: Update: Voting has come to an end a while ago. Exit polls suggest the vote is too close to call.

9.05 pm: Here's a background. The left-radical Greek government, led by young PM Alexis Tsipras, which came to power six months ago on the plank of fighting off economy-crippling austerity measures, announced the referendum.

The question:

"Should the plan of agreement be accepted, which was submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund in the Eurogroup of June 25, 2015 and comprises of two parts, which constitute their unified proposal?"

"The first document is entitled 'Reforms for the Completion of the Current Program and Beyond' and the second "Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.'"

9.00 pm: Welcome to the live coverage of a historic event that will decide whether debt-laden, tiny Greece wants to accept what many of its citizens view as harsh terms in order to obtain a bailout package from creditors.

Or if it will choose to say 'no' to austerity measures. An event that could have far-reaching ramifications over the nation stays in the Eurozone, the future of the currency union itself as well as perhaps the global economy.