Almost a million people will have been out of work for more than a year by the end of 2012, according to research.

The IPPR thinktank said another 107,000 people will join the ranks of the long-term unemployed in the coming months, taking the total to its highest level since 1995.

The report, published ahead of new unemployment figures on Wednesday, said long-term unemployment was the "hidden crisis" facing the UK economy.

Almost 800 jobs were affected on Tuesday in a spate of job loss announcements.

Tony Dolphin, the IPPR's chief economist, said: "Long-term unemployment is the hidden crisis of the slowest-ever economic recovery in the UK.

"While the Youth Contract is designed to help young people out of work for more than a year, the Work Programme has only been able to secure employment for about a third of jobseekers on the scheme.

"On current progress, two-thirds of people out of work for a year will not get work in the following two years. Government policy is not keeping pace with joblessness.

"Unemployment is not going to fall until the middle of 2013 and the number of people out of work for more than a year is going to grow to almost a million the end of this year. The longer someone is unemployed, the less likely they are to ever return to work.

"The government should guarantee everyone who has been unemployed for more than a year a job at the minimum wage in local government or the voluntary sector. But with that right should come the responsibility to take that job or risk losing their benefits."

Another report said older women had fared well during the "jobs recession" of recent years.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said there were 271,000 more women aged 50 to 64 in the labour market than at the start of the recession at the end of 2007, compared with a rise of 3,000 among men of the same age.

The increase was driven by a rise of 172,000 in the number of women who were self-employed, and those working in managerial, professional and technical occupations rather than jobs traditionally linked to women, such as sales and customer services.

John Philpott, the CIPD's chief economic adviser, said older people had fared better during the recession, adding: "With the modern generation of 50-something women more likely to view Madonna than Grandma Grey as a role model, the economically active older woman is well on course to be ever more prominent in British workplaces in the coming years."

The reports follow news that almost 500 jobs are under threat after supermarket milk supplier Dairy Crest announced plans to close two dairies.

The proposed closures involve a glass bottling dairy at Aintree, where 220 people work, and a site at Fenstanton in Cambridgeshire employing 250 people.

The Unite union described it as "devastating news".

Aquascutum, the 160-year-old British clothing retailer that has dressed Winston Churchill and the Queen Mother, collapsed into administration on Tuesday, jeopardising 250 jobs.

The business was bought by Jaeger's owner, Harold Tillman, and its chief executive, Belinda Earl, in 2009 but it continued to make "significant losses" despite their efforts to turn it around, according to administrators at FRP Advisory.

Meanwhile, the GMB union said 38 job losses at manufacturing firm Peglers in Leeds and Doncaster showed the economy was "going backwards".

Unemployment increased by 28,000 to 2.67 million between November and January, last month's figures showed, with 1.6 million claiming jobseeker's allowance.

A Department for Work and Pensions spokesman said: "We know times are tough, but there are jobs out there and Jobcentre Plus is taking on 10,000 vacancies every working day.

"We still face a long road before we overcome the economic challenges ahead. The Work Programme plays a vital role in helping people get the right support and training so they can take up those available opportunities, and through the Youth Contract we are spending £1bn to create opportunities for nearly half a million young people over the next three years."