by Aaron Schatz

Once again, it is time for postseason DVOA ratings. As always, the following rules apply:

All 32 teams are ranked, whether they made the playoffs or not.

Teams are ranked in order of weighted DVOA, not total season DVOA. Since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-4, and Weeks 5-10 are somewhat discounted.

Teams which did not play in the wild card round are treated as if they had a bye week. (That includes both the 20 non-playoff teams and the four teams with byes.)

The playoff odds report is updated through the wild card games. You will find DVOA matchup pages for the four second round games on the FO Premium page. Remember that the equation used to determine win probabilities for the playoff odds report is not as complex as the one used for FO Premium picks, so picks may differ.

Roster data will be updated to include the Wild Card round by later this evening.

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To save people some time, we remind everyone to put their angry troll hatred into the official zlionsfan angry troll hatred Mad Libs form:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

If you are new to our website, you can read the explanation of how DVOA is figured here. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

Teams in yellow are still alive in the playoffs. Teams in gray lost this past weekend.



TEAM WEI.

DVOA LAST

WEEK W-L WEI OFF

DVOA OFF.

RANK WEI DEF

DVOA DEF.

RANK WEI S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 SEA 47.9% 1 13-3 9.7% 8 -31.2% 1 7.0% 6 2 NE 26.9% 5 12-4 26.8% 2 9.5% 24 9.5% 4 3 DEN 25.4% 2 13-3 26.9% 1 -6.0% 9 -7.5% 28 4 CAR 24.8% 4 12-4 5.2% 11 -16.9% 5 2.7% 12 5 PHI 22.3% 3 10-7 23.2% 4 -0.9% 15 -1.7% 24 6 SF 21.0% 6 13-4 8.5% 10 -3.9% 11 8.6% 5 7 KC 20.2% 9 11-6 9.9% 7 0.3% 17 10.5% 3 8 NO 19.2% 7 12-5 17.6% 5 -5.6% 10 -3.9% 26 9 STL 18.9% 10 7-9 -5.9% 21 -12.7% 6 12.1% 2 10 SD 17.4% 12 10-7 24.9% 3 10.8% 25 3.4% 10 11 CIN 15.4% 8 11-6 1.4% 16 -12.3% 7 1.7% 15 12 ARI 13.4% 11 10-6 2.6% 13 -18.5% 3 -7.7% 29 13 PIT 7.8% 13 8-8 9.6% 9 4.2% 20 2.3% 13 14 BAL 0.2% 18 8-8 -22.3% 30 -10.1% 8 12.5% 1 15 CHI 0.0% 14 8-8 13.6% 6 16.9% 31 3.3% 11 16 IND -2.7% 21 12-5 1.2% 17 3.4% 19 -0.5% 19 TEAM WEI.

DVOA LAST

WEEK W-L WEI OFF

DVOA OFF.

RANK WEI DEF

DVOA DEF.

RANK WEI S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 DET -2.9% 15 7-9 -6.7% 22 -1.9% 13 1.9% 14 18 TEN -4.9% 16 7-9 5.1% 12 9.3% 23 -0.7% 21 19 MIA -5.3% 19 8-8 -0.7% 18 -0.1% 16 -4.7% 27 20 BUF -6.0% 17 6-10 -14.8% 25 -17.7% 4 -8.8% 30 21 MIN -6.6% 24 5-10-1 -1.8% 19 11.0% 26 6.1% 8 22 TB -6.6% 20 4-12 -8.1% 23 -3.5% 12 -2.0% 25 23 NYJ -6.7% 23 8-8 -8.9% 24 -1.0% 14 1.2% 16 24 NYG -6.7% 22 7-9 -24.9% 31 -18.9% 2 -0.7% 22 25 DAL -9.8% 25 8-8 2.5% 14 18.2% 32 5.9% 9 26 GB -11.8% 26 8-8-1 1.5% 15 12.6% 29 -0.6% 20 27 ATL -14.3% 27 4-12 -1.8% 20 13.6% 30 1.1% 17 28 JAC -19.6% 28 4-12 -18.0% 29 8.3% 22 6.8% 7 29 CLE -27.8% 29 4-12 -15.6% 27 12.3% 28 0.1% 18 30 WAS -31.5% 30 3-13 -15.0% 26 0.4% 18 -16.1% 32 31 HOU -33.9% 31 2-14 -25.0% 32 7.5% 21 -1.3% 23 32 OAK -39.4% 32 4-12 -16.0% 28 12.3% 27 -11.2% 31

Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for the first round of the playoffs. Yes, two games came out with as exact ties before opponent adjustments. When you see that San Francisco has a negative DVOA after opponent adjustments, do remember that the opponent adjustments for Green Bay are based on only half a season of Aaron Rodgers, so San Francisco's defense was a little bit better than this.



DVOA (with opponent adjustments) TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST IND 19% 29% 13% 3% KC 14% 22% 10% 2% NO 45% 30% -11% 4% PHI 2% 18% 13% -3% SD 38% 32% -5% 1% CIN -28% -24% 9% 5% SF -3% -6% -1% 3% GB 13% 10% -7% -4% VOA (no opponent adjustments) TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST IND 11% 21% 14% 3% KC 11% 22% 13% 2% NO 26% 28% 5% 4% PHI -14% 15% 25% -3% SD 29% 23% -5% 1% CIN -14% 0% 19% 5% SF 7% 7% 3% 3% GB 7% 10% -1% -4%

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each week in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Wild Card weekend are:

T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND (Limited Edition): Led all WR with 102 DYAR this week (13 receptions, 224 yards, 2 TD)

Led all WR with 102 DYAR this week (13 receptions, 224 yards, 2 TD) Donald Butler, ILB, SD: Led all defenders with four Defeats, all on Giovani Bernard (2 TFL, forced fumble, tackle to prevent third-down conversion)

Led all defenders with four Defeats, all on Giovani Bernard (2 TFL, forced fumble, tackle to prevent third-down conversion) King Dunlap, LT, SD: Limited Michael Johnson to no sacks, one QB hit, and one tackle

Limited Michael Johnson to no sacks, one QB hit, and one tackle Mark Ingram, RB, NO: Led all RB with 46 DYAR this week (18 carries, 97 yards, TD)

You'll learn more about Hilton and Ingram's games tomorrow when we run Wild Card Quick Reads. Sorry no 49ers, but Colin Kaepernick is getting covered on Madden's Team of the Week.