The battle for Barnaby Joyce's seat of New England is shaping as the most closely-watched contest of the next election, with rural independent Tony Windsor now more likely than not to mount a political comeback.

Mr Windsor told Fairfax Media on Wednesday he was a "better than 50 per cent" chance of declaring himself a candidate for his former seat.

Former independent MP Tony Windsor says he's a "better than 50 per cent chance" of declaring himself a candidate for his former seat. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Crucially, he is being "encouraged" to run by wife Lyn, and political associates confirmed it is "increasingly likely" he will attempt to unseat the Agriculture Minister and likely next leader of the National Party, Barnaby Joyce.

Mr Windsor, who has spent the best part of the past two months in the desert in Western Australia, is heading to Canberra next week and will discuss the idea of a comeback with former associates, including his friend and former balance of power independent Rob Oakeshott.