Jason Noble

jnoble2@dmreg.com

Four months after the caucuses, Democratic loyalties in Iowa remain deeply divided between presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

But a wide swath of likely Democratic primary voters also believes Clinton is the best bet for defeating presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Forty-two percent of poll respondents say they support Sanders for the Democratic presidential nomination. Clinton is a whisker behind, at 40 percent. Eleven percent say they support neither candidate.

Iowa Democrats were similarly divided in the Feb. 1 presidential caucuses, when Clinton finished a quarter of a percentage point ahead of Sanders in the calculation of state delegate equivalents, the closest finish in the history of the Iowa Democratic caucuses.

“What’s interesting is that after an entire Democratic race, it hasn’t shifted one way or the other,” said Democratic strategist David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama. “You’ve got two candidates who basically are evenly matched and evenly regarded.”

With just a handful of state primaries remaining, Clinton has a commanding lead over Sanders nationally but has not clinched the nomination. Axelrod cautioned against reading too much into polling on Democrats’ loyalties while the race remains unresolved, and said it should be clearer in August or September whether Democrats have coalesced around their nominee.

The poll, conducted May 30-June 2 by Selzer & Co., surveyed 542 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Poll respondent Jeremiah Brockman, 27, a University of Northern Iowa student from Waverly, said he supports Sanders but is ready to vote for any Democrat on the ballot in November.

“Although a lot of his ideas are a little too far left to work, they align more with my political views,” Brockman said. “I prefer Bernie, but I definitely prefer a Democrat.”

That’s not the case for Sanders voter Molly Downs. The 39-year-old writer from Dubuque says she finds Clinton too untrustworthy to vote for — even in a contest against Trump.

“I just don’t trust her at all,” Downs said. “I am just going to have to write Bernie Sanders in. I don’t think there’s anything else I can do.”

The Iowa Poll shows that the candidates are also extremely close when it comes to popularity among Democratic voters. Clinton and Sanders both are viewed favorably by 62 percent of primary voters. Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 35 percent and Sanders by 34 percent.

But there’s a wide divergence in who likely Democratic primary voters believe is best positioned to win in November. Fifty-eight percent of poll respondents say Clinton has a better chance of defeating Trump, compared with 29 percent who say Sanders does.

Axelrod chalked that up to differing priorities among each candidate's supporters. Clinton backers are more intent on the question of electability, he said, while Sanders supporters tend to be more ideological. Some will readily concede that Clinton has the best chance to win but prefer Sanders’ message.

That’s more or less the feeling of poll respondents Bonita Turner and Bryan Wassenaar.

Turner, a 71-year-old retiree and Clinton supporter from Aplington, dismissed Sanders as too “utopian” to be a credible candidate. Clinton, by contrast, has the experience and political skills necessary to win, she believes.

“She’s already knowledgeable on so much,” Turner said. “She does not have to play catch-up at all.”

Wassenaar, 62, a retired newspaperman from Correctionville, said he backs Sanders but believes Clinton’s more moderate positions give her a wider appeal.

“I don’t think she’s a better candidate than Bernie Sanders at all, but she has close political ties to big business that would help her in the general election,” Wassenaar said.

Trump, meanwhile, is viewed unfavorably by 78 percent of self-identified Democratic primary voters; 19 percent say they view him favorably. Among other groups, his popularity is stronger with respondents who live in rural areas or who are political independents.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted May 30-June 2 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 542 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted absentee in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate this month.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,439 households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, gender and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the subsample of 542 likely Democratic primary voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20 the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.