Article content

The “Doug Ford factor” that some federal Conservatives worried would hurt their chances in Ontario this election appears to be very real, and especially significant, suggests a new survey conducted in partnership between the Angus Reid Institute and Postmedia.

The poll shows that half of Ontario’s population sees their federal vote being swayed by the performance of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government in that province — and most are not being influenced in a way that will benefit the federal Tories.

We apologize, but this video has failed to load.

tap here to see other videos from our team. Try refreshing your browser, or Exclusive poll reveals 'Doug Ford factor' a big problem for Scheer's Conservatives in Ontario Back to video

Among those Ontarians who say their federal vote will be affected by their impressions of Ford’s government, a whopping 85 per cent say the “policies and actions” of the provincial PC government will make them less likely to support Andrew Scheer’s federal Conservative party.

The same questions were asked across the country, but the effect of a provincial government on people’s federal voting intentions was the strongest by far in Ontario, which has been governed by Ford’s PCs since they were elected in June 2018. The second-strongest impact was seen in Alberta, with 36 per cent of Albertans saying that Premier Jason Kenney’s United Conservative government was influencing their vote, although in that case, most of those people were being swayed towards more likely supporting the federal Conservatives. In Quebec, 27 per cent said the Coalition Avenir Québec government led by Premier François Legault would have either a moderate or massive impact on their federal vote, although, in that province, respondents seemed less likely to vote for all three major national parties as a result.