Democrats have regained a double-digit advantage over Republicans on which party voters want to control Congress after the 2018 midterm elections, while at the same time President Donald Trump’s job approval has improved, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found.

Asked which party should control Congress, registered voters picked Democrats 50% to 40%, the second time in three months the party claimed a double-digit advantage.

“This is not an environment where Republicans are going to have any national advantage,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducted the survey with Democrat Fred Yang. “They are going to have to dig in and work against the national environment to figure out how to win a campaign.”

The GOP lost ground in the past two months even though Americans adopted a more favorable view of how Mr. Trump is handling his job. Some 43% approved of his job performance, compared with 39% in January.

The poll found that House Democratic Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is suffering from a negative image: just 21% have a positive image of her, down 4 percentage points from a poll six months ago.

The Journal/NBC News poll measures the national political climate, rather than opinions in any one state or House district. But the findings are consistent with last week’s unexpected win by a Democrat in a Pennsylvania special House election. Mr. Trump campaigned in the district for the GOP candidate but couldn’t pull him to victory, while a strong Democratic candidate was able to shrug off GOP efforts to link him to Mrs. Pelosi.


“Trumpism may well help Donald Trump in his 2020 election” but may not help other Republicans this year, said Mr. Yang.

The poll was conducted March 10-14, just as the primary election season began. Democrats have been buoyed by a surge in voter turnout even in red states such as Texas, which held the first 2018 primary March 6.

The poll found that, nationwide, Democratic voters are more interested in the midterm elections than are Republicans. Asked to rate their level of interest in the election, 60% of Democrats ranked it at the highest levels, compared with 54% of Republicans.

Republicans have acknowledged that they face political headwinds this year, if only because a president’s party usually loses seats in a first midterm election. In early 2018 polling, there were signs that the GOP had gained some ground after it passed the tax cut, as Republican voters welcomed the party’s first major legislative accomplishment. In January, the Journal/NBC poll found the Democratic advantage was 6 percentage points on the question of which party should control Congress.

The question of which party should control Congress has sometimes foreshadowed the election outcome. But for Democrats, only a large lead on the question, such as a double-digit advantage, has tended to correspond to electoral gains, while Republicans have made gains in years when they have had only a small lead on the question. That is because Republican voter groups often vote more reliably in midterms than do Democratic groups, and because House district lines often favor Republicans.

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The new poll’s finding of a 10-point Democratic advantage shows eroding support among independents, who break for a Democratic Congress by a double digit margin, 48%-36%.


Even among voters in Republican-held congressional seats, the parties are dead even on the question of which party should control Congress. That is the lowest “home court” advantage for the GOP since at least 2010.

One of the GOP’s strongest special-interest backers, the gun lobby, is also taking a hit in public opinion one month after the mass shooting at a school in Parkland, Fla. The National Rifle Association is viewed positively by 37% of adults and negatively by 40%, the first time since 2000 that the group was viewed more negatively than positively.

In April 2017, 45% viewed the NRA positively and 33% negatively.

Conor Lamb celebrated his victory in the special House election early Wednesday in Canonsburg, Pa. Photo: GENE J. PUSKAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS

One of Democrats’ closest special interest allies, the women’s health group Planned Parenthood, is faring better in the public eye: 52% view the group positively, and 25% negatively.


Mrs. Pelosi’s image is somewhat worse than Americans’ view of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), who was viewed positively by 24% and negatively by 37%.

The survey of 1,100 adults was conducted March 10-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.95 percentage points. The margin of error for the survey’s 930 registered voters was plus or minus 3.21 percentage points.

Write to Janet Hook at janet.hook@wsj.com