Butler season preview:

>> Best-case scenario: Bulldogs do what they often do — overachieve. LaVall Jordan has the pulse of his team and a spectacular Butler coaching debut, as predecessors Thad Matta, Todd Lickliter, Brad Stevens and Chris Holtmann did. Kamar Baldwin transitions to point guard and becomes a candidate for All-America and Big East player of the year. Kelan Martin performs like a genuine NBA prospect. Tyler Wideman steps up as a senior and emerges as a scoring threat. Other pieces fall into place. They finish second in the Big East (behind Villanova) and make another NCAA tournament run, advancing one step farther than a year ago, all the way to the Elite Eight.

>> Worst-case scenario: Butler was bound to have a season like this. Every program endures one, especially after a coaching change. Despite a capable roster, rigors of the Big East sink the Bulldogs. They lose the close ones, fall to 6-12 in the conference and lose (again) in the conference tournament. They miss postseason altogether, not even making the NIT. Baldwin struggles at the point, and Martin presses as he tries to impress NBA scouts. Parts don’t fit. Jordan’s Michigan-style offense does not complement a Butler-style defense, causing failure on both ends.

>> Breakout player: Sean McDermott. Sophomore from Pendleton Heights redshirted his first year and totaled only 53 minutes (in 16 games) after mid-January last season. He has seized a starting forward slot with 3-point accuracy (5-of-9 in two exhibitions), long-armed defense and intelligent play. A scary staph infection in high school delayed his development, but a relentless work ethic has made him into a key figure.

>> Looking at the schedule: This could be the Bulldogs’ salvation … or their undoing. A Nov. 15 visit to Maryland is followed by a challenging home game against Furman and the PK Invitational. Butler opens against Texas at Portland, Ore., and a win would likely mean a semifinal against Duke (remember 2010?). Then there’s a Dec. 16 date with Purdue in the Crossroads Classic. A record of, say, 7-5 in nonleague games would apply pressure on Big East play. Butler plays five of the first eight on the road in the Big East, and one of the home games is a CBS showcase Dec. 30 against Villanova.

>> Unsung hero: Wideman. At an undersized 6-8, he has long battled bigger centers. He has been so effective that Butler has rarely been beaten up in the post. He is widely respected around the Big East. If Wideman improves midrange shooting, the ripple effect could be significant for Butler’s offense.

MORE BUTLER:

► Butler basketball's backbone: Tyler Wideman has always come up big

► 3 key takeaways from Butler victory over Lincoln Memorial

► Building the best Butler basketball lineup from the past 25 years

Call IndyStar reporter David Woods at (317) 444-6195. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidWoods007.