Abigail Margulis

amargulis@citizen-times.com

This year has been a dry one so far, and for the first time since September four Western North Carolina counties are considered to be in severe drought.

A lack of rain is impacting the southwestern mountains in Macon, Transylvania, Jackson and Haywood counties, according to the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality. On Thursday, these counties were designated severe drought, the second highest of four drought categories.

Over several months, the region has experienced dry conditions with lower than normal precipitation, said Rebecca Ward, extension climatologist with the State Climate Office of North Carolina.

From Jan. 1 to June 23, 16.1 inches of rain have fallen at the Asheville Regional Airport, 5.64 inches below normal, according to data from the National Weather Service. The Asheville area has received 1.28 inches of rain to date in June. The normal rainfall for June is 4.65 inches.

Areas of the Southeast have remained dry due to the jet stream pattern, said Weather Service meteorologist Patrick Moore.

“We have had a lot of instances where the jet stream has been coming down from the northwest to the southeast, so it tends to be a dry pattern,” he said. “It keeps us cut off from moisture that would be coming in from the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean. It’s been that way more often than not since late winter.”

Meteorologists say the rainfall deficit began in March, which was 2.27 inches below normal. But until March, the Asheville area was above or near normal in levels of precipitation.

In November and December, Asheville had a record-breaking amount of rainfall, Moore said.

In November, 7.82 inches of rain fell at the airport, 4.17 above normal. In December, 8.76 inches of rain fell, 5.17 above average.

There were 3.29 inches of rain in January, slightly below the 3.67 average, while February was unusually wet, 1.93 inches of rain more than the average of 3.76.

March won’t be the driest month of 2016, though, if June continues to see little rain in its last week, Moore said. The forecast for the next 10 days indicates it will remain dry.

Ten other counties in North Carolina, including Buncombe County, are in moderate drought, with another 22 counties considered to be abnormally dry.

The continuing lack of rain “impacts soil moisture levels, stream flows and groundwater levels,” Ward said.

The French Broad River’s flow was running below average Friday morning, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The river at Asheville was running at 646 cubic feet per second, far below the 1,450 cubic feet per second average.

Its water level was also down as of 8:45 a.m. Friday morning. The river was measured at 3.9 feet at the Fletcher site, according to data from the Weather Service. River levels began a steady decline on June 17.

Agriculture has also begun to see an impact from the drought, said Buncombe County Extension Director Steve Duckett.

"We have already lost some hay production and we have some pastures that have sustained some damage," he said. "So, we could have some reduction in total yield on dry land crops (like corn and soybeans) but everything so far is recoverable from what I’ve seen."

Normally there will be three hay cutting periods during the summer months, but with the dry weather it will likely delay the second cutting and potentially not yield a third, Duckett said.

It's too soon to say if farmers will be negatively affected by the end of the summer.

"Farmers tend to be very optimistic, so if the season turns to more normal pattern, we won’t have too heavy degree of losses in general," Duckett said. "If this level of drought continues, we will begin to be concerned and ... then we could have a train wreck in terms of yield lost. Hopefully, even in a dry pattern we won’t have as bad of results as we could possibly have."

The scattered rain that was forecast for Friday would not be enough to bring relief to the area, Moore said.

“At this time of year the rainfall that we get tends to be spotty,” he said. “Some places might end up getting a couple of thunderstorms and catch up, but most places don’t. We don’t tend to get widespread, significant rainfall at this time of year.”

If the dryness continues, which climatologists believe it will, several counties in North Carolina will remain in some sort of drought with some areas getting worse, Moore said.

According to the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, a drought will persist until September for the western part of the state as well as parts of Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.

Saturday and Sunday will have sunny skies with a 20 percent chance of showers, according to the Weather Service. The high is expected to reach 87 degrees both days.

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Rainfall by month in 2016

Month | Total | Departure from normal

January | 3.29 | - .38

February | 5.69 | + 1.93

March | 1.56 | - 2.27

April | 2.50 | - .83

May | 1.84 | -1.82

June-to-date |1.28

Detailed 7 day forecast:

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. North wind 3 to 5 mph. A 20 percent chance of showers after 11 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. East southeast wind 3 to 5 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10 a.m. with mostly sunny skies. A high near 87 and a low around 68. Sunday night there is a 30 percent chance of showers with southeast winds.

Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 84 percent. Chance of precipitation is near 80 percent. There is a 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 a.m. with a low around 66.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 86 and a low around 63.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85 and a low around 63.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms with a high near 83.

Source: National Weather Service.