As I sit here tonight catching up on the GSTL matches of the week (I was on a vacation to Beijing), I feel the urge to say some things about overestimating opponents. Lots of things are said about players underestimating each other. It happens in every sport, and will continue to happen.

Now, I’m not sure if overestimating your opponent happens in other sports, but it certainly happens in StarCraft. You have to take into consideration that your opponent will not always make the best decisions for a circumstance. Quite often, in fact, he might do the absolute stupidest thing he could at the moment. Something which you -should- be ready for. Something that -shouldn’t- work.

It happens a lot in professional games, and on the ladder. There are some ways to try to minimize how often it happens to you. One trick is to constantly ask yourself, “what is a stupid way my opponent could get an advantage right now?” Maybe it’s attacking up your ramp when he knows you have siege tanks (but they aren’t sieged right now). So siege them. Maybe it’s expanding to the bottom right of Entombed Valley when he is top left, and you are bottom left. So scout it. Maybe it’s DTs when he’s already far behind (SO predictable, who would do that?!?!). Make an extra Spore.

Another trick is to scout a lot more. Maybe you lose a bit of economy doing so. That’s a measurable number!! Oh no!!!! Information is much harder to measure. Don’t just assume that it’s not worth that Mule for some extra information. Don’t just guess that he’s probably not 7 gating you and you shouldn’t lose that extra Overlord. 75 gas is a small price to pay to make sure you know where that Terran army is with another Observer.

It hurts to watch a player lose a game because he thinks his opponent is so good, so perfect, that spending a little bit more time and money scouting will lose them the game.

Don’t hurt Artosis, he’s a nice guy.