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BTC Summary:

BTC Rating: BUY

Market Cap: $179.5B

Aug 8 Price: $11,966.41

August 15 Price: $10,286.50 Change: -14%

BTC active addresses Aug 8: 815.4k

BTC active addresses Aug 15: 750.8k Change: -7.9%

BTC on-chain transactions Aug 8: 337.5k

BTC on-chain transactions Aug 15: 360.1k Change: + 6.7%



Technical & Sentiment:

Technical analysis suggests price is to trade higher, then potentially decline

Sentiment analysis indicates increased speculators illustrating a trend change

Positive Price Drivers:

Bitcoin remains mentally linked by the community as a safe haven asset, even if the price doesn't suggest so

Demand for a censorship resistance currency is large in Hong Kong and Iran right now and Bitcoin may be the solution

Negative Price Drivers:

Historic price analysis and recent performance suggests the tie to safe haven performance may not be as close as investors believe

Bitcoin experienced a large rally into 13.6k and investors are starting to believe we are on the tail end of an investment cycle

Overview:

Over the past week, Bitcoin has performed in line with most altcoins like Ripple (-15.6%) and Litecoin (-15.7%), outperforming Ethereum (-18.3%) and Tron (-20.9%). This week we issue BTC a BUY because:

Technical analysis suggests BTC has recently bottomed out and is to change trend

Sentiment analysis suggests speculators are to enter the market

Increase geopolitical tensions are driving prices of safe haven commodities higher, and many hope Bitcoin as well

Hong Kong protestors claim to be initiating a large bank run this week potentially storing it in cryptocurrency

BTC Price Analysis: Buy Bitcoin above $9,780, sell $10,400-$11,000 depending.

Bitcoin quickly pivoted off $9,500 which may act as a spring for trend to change to positive from here

Price can decline to as low as $9,780 while retaining it’s BUY, as price may still increase to $10,400 from there

When BTC increases above $10,400 (1), price is expected to increase to as high as $10,600 before potentially reversing off strong resistance

If we break $10,600 price will increase to test $11,000 in Zone 2

If price breaks $11,000 SHORT $11,350

If price declines below $9,650 short into sub $9,000s

Track this trade: http://bit.ly/Aug15Trade

On a macro level:

IF this happens, then we buy:

Hong Kong citizens commit to withdrawing funds from Chinese banks

President Trump reaffirms the new tariffs

IF this happens, then we sell:

Bitcoin continues to lose correlation with Gold as a safe haven commodity

Binance KYC hacker exposes serious flaws in the exchange on negotiations went bad

BTC Sentiment: Sentiment is to continue to increase from here.

There has been an increase in market speculators as the price of Bitcoin has been very volatile

There may be a coming trend change in price, as Sentiment appears to have bottomed out (1)

Price Drivers This Week

Over the previous three months, Bitcoin and Gold have rallied in unison. However, from the results of this weeks BTC decline, the safe-haven claim may be skeptical. The Dow Jones just experienced its worst performance of the year when it dropped by more than 3 percent, and BTC fell by 7 percent. In other terms, the epidemic of worldwide financial slowdown also seems to shake the status of BTC. If BTC also turns into a risk asset, shareholders will have a decision to undersell BTC.

This Day in Money

On August 15, 1971, the United States announced the "temporary" suspension of the convertibility of the US dollar into gold by President Richard Nixon and the Bretton Woods scheme officially ended on 15 August 1973. This marked the end of a USA currency backed by hard assets. Since then the USD is backed by the full faith and trust of the US government. As we know, that trust may not always be there, so we trust things like mathematics and cryptography for digital currency.

Bitcoins unique inability to print more than 21M gives Bitcoin soundness a form of money. Unlike Central Banks, the founder of Bitcoin can at no time change the amount in circulation, debasing the existing investors. As the public adopts the currency, the price will naturally increase as demand outpaces declining supply.

What Top Personalities are Saying on Twitter:

@PeterLBrandt with 300.2k followers think now is a good time to buy BTC.

@TheCryptoDog with 158.4k followers believes BTC may increase to $10,600

@CryptoBarTalk with 1,771 followers believes BTC is about to exit a downtrend

Additional Analysis

Messari Studies How The Mainnet Launch Effects Price

HOW TO MAKE A MINT: THE CRYPTOGRAPHY OF ANONYMOUS ELECTRONIC CASH

That’s it for the Bitcoin weekly report from August 8 - August 15, 2019. Make sure to stay tuned to get Fridays ETH report.