Trump caves on his Mexican trade war, and the race to win Iowa brings 19 Democratic candidates to Cedar Rapids. Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer joins Jon, Jon, Tommy, Dan, and Connie Schultz on stage in Des Moines, Iowa.

Show Notes:

Art of the Deal

Is this a deal or a cave?

NYT : Mexico Sets Domestic Priorities Aside to Meet Terms of U.S. Trade Deal

WaPo : Mexican officials hail tariff-averting pact with U.S. even as worries emerge

Bloomberg : Mexico Never Agreed to Farm Deal With U.S., Contradicting Trump

If you really want to know what Hugh Hewitt had to say here…

WaPo : Trump’s big win leaves critics sputtering – By Hugh Hewitt

Why did Trump back away from the tariffs at the last minute?

LA Times : Trump claims victory, but the U.S.-Mexico pact is a compromise, and tentative

Reuters : Trump is confident Mexico will enforce new immigration deal

Politico : Mexico crisis shows the limits of Trump’s brinksmanship

Will any of these actions actually reduce the flow of asylum seekers to the U.S.?

AP : Mexico-US tariff deal: Questions, concerns for migration

WaPo : Border apprehensions are up more than 1,000 percent since April 2017

CBS : More than 10,000 asylum seekers returned under “Remain in Mexico” as U.S. set to expand policy.

WaPo : ICE deported veterans while ‘unaware’ it was required to carefully screen them, report says

NYT : Death on the Rio Grande: A Look at a Perilous Migrant Route

NYT : Mexico Has Two Options in Dealing With Trump Demands on Migration. Both Could Hurt.

CNN : 3 myths about Mexico and migration, debunked

Recode : Foreign tech workers are turning to Canada as US immigration becomes more difficult

LA Times : Facing pressure from Trump, Mexico detains two migrant caravan organizers

Financial Times : Mexico faces tough task enacting Trump’s migrant deal

NYT : Mexico Cracks Down on Migrants, After Pressure From Trump to Act

How does this latest move fit within the context of Trump’s overall strategy on immigration?

NYT : Trump Mixes Economic and National Security, Plunging the U.S. into Multiple Fights

Texas Tribune : More than 5,800 migrant kids are living in Texas shelters

Axios : Inside the horrors of migrant detention centers

Axios : How companies profit from immigrant detention

NYT Op-Ed by Nick Kristof: This Teenager Knows a Secret to Slowing Guatemalan Migration – Lesly Cano Gómez once thought she could never make a life in her village. But her outlook changed.

Foreign Policy : Trump Is Trying to Trap Democrats on Immigration – By James Traub

Mother Jones : Democrats Should Beat Up Trump Over Immigration – By Kevin Drum

If you want to get into the census stuff…

WaPo : Where a citizenship question could cause the census to miss millions of Hispanics — and why that’s a big deal

How should Democrats talk about this?

WaPo : Pelosi accuses Trump of ‘threats and temper tantrums’ in Mexico negotiations

NYT : Trump Is More Vulnerable to Democratic Attacks on Trade Than You Might Think – The Upshot – By Neil Irwin

New Yorker: By John Cassidy – A Weakening Economy May Be the Biggest Threat to Donald Trump

On Dems and talking about the economy…

NYT : A Weak Jobs Report Poses a New Challenge to Trump: A Slowing Economy

WaPo : U.S. hiring slows sharply as Trump’s trade war starts to bite

CNBC : Jobs creation slows dramatically with payrolls up just 75,000 in May, much worse than expected

Bloomberg : Trump’s 2020 Bet on the Economy Takes Hit Amid Signs of Slowdown

Vox : The May jobs report is a big disappointment for workers and bad news for Trump

WaPo : The Daily 202: ‘Why not lobsters?’: Mainers plead with Trump to help an industry suffering from his trade war

And kinda interesting…

Vox : Public support for left-wing policymaking has reached a 60-year high – By Matt Yglesias

Caucus Fever

What’s it like running a campaign in this state?

Reuters : Democrats to pour into Iowa for biggest event yet in 2020 White House race

CNN : 2020 Democrats will be tripping over each other in Iowa this weekend

Des Moines Register : 19 presidential candidates will go toe-to-toe in Iowa on Sunday; who can break from the pack?

Politico : ‘No tolerance whatsoever for the bulls—’: Iowa Dems warn against new Bernie-Hillary wars (May 10) – After a rancorous 2016 caucus battle that left the state party reeling, Democratic leaders are determined to keep the peace this year between the various campaigns.

Roll Call : How to survive and thrive in Iowa — words of wisdom from former staffers

Des Moines Register : Column – Five rules for Democrats running Iowa caucus campaigns – By Barbara Leach

WaPo : At Pride Fest in Des Moines, politics are in the spotlight – By Jenna Johnson

Vox : The Iowa caucuses, explained (February 2016)

What do you have to do to win here? What’s most important?

LA Times : Iowa is shaking things up, and the ripples may reach all the way to the White House

AP : Blacks in Iowa poised to wield significant sway in 2020 campaign

How wide open is this race right now? What should we take from polling at this stage?

FULL POLL RESULTS

Des Moines Register : Iowa Poll: Joe Biden leads, followed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg

More of the latest Iowa Poll results and coverage

CNN : CNN Iowa Poll: Biden leads a tighter top tier in first caucus state

CNN : How proposed Democratic caucus rules make polling even harder, and how we crafted our best shot – By J. Ann Selzer

NYT : Biden Retains Lead in Iowa Poll, but Warren and Buttigieg Gain

Axios : Iowa Democratic caucus poll: Biden just ahead as top presidential pick

Vox : Why Joe Biden is holding on to such a strong lead in the 2020 primary polls

Yahoo News: Beto O’Rourke says he’s unfazed by sinking poll numbers in Iowa

Talking Points Memo (May 20) – Poll: Biden, Sanders Tied In Iowa

WaPo : The Trailer: Why polls haven’t scared off 2020 Democratic hopefuls – By David Weigel

FiveThirtyEight : The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary – We’re tracking polls and endorsements, with more to come.

Is Iowa just as important this year as it has been in the past? Can you skip Iowa? How many tickets are there out of Iowa?

NYT : Iowa’s Likely Outcome for 2020 Contenders: A Field of Broken Dreams

The Atlantic : The Early States’ Stranglehold on the Presidential Primary – By Ron Brownstein

NYT : California Is Now an ‘Early Primary State.’ Democrats Are Grappling With How to Compete.

NYT : ‘You Don’t Have to Be in Des Moines.’ Democrats Expand Primary Map, Spurred by Social Media.

USA Today: Why 2020 candidates are looking beyond the early states and making a broader push to court voters

Who’s running impressive campaigns here so far? Who’s got their work cut out for them?

ABC : 2020 candidates double down on Iowa, increase staffing in Hawkeye State

Wall Street Journal: Joe Biden Hopes His Third Campaign in Iowa Is the Charm

Iowa Starting Line: HOW THE CANDIDATES CELEBRATED PRIDE IN DES MOINES

NY Mag: Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren Are Making Massive Bets on Iowa

NY Times : Elizabeth Warren’s Campaign, ‘Based on Ideas,’ Bets on Iowa

FiveThirtyEigh t: The Candidates Who Are Going All In On Iowa Or New Hampshire

FiveThirtyEight : Some Of Today’s Candidates (Probably) Won’t Make It To Iowa

AP : Iowa Democrats warn that Kamala Harris’ ‘star is fading’

Des Moines Register: Des Moines caucusgoers have a new neighbor: 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson

Other things to check out…