Aleksander Barkov entered the NHL in the fall of 2013 as one of the league’s youngest players, having been drafted second overall in the previous summer’s entry draft. Barkov’s scouting report described the tall Finnish center as an offensive threat with a strong vision of the ice, good playmaking & passing abilities and high hockey sense & defensive awareness despite his below average skating.

Barkov has since lived up to the hype, having established himself as one of the game’s top two-way forwards. He plays a complete game in terms all three zones of the rink (offensive, neutral, defensive) and all three game situations (even strength, powerplay, short-handed). Barkov set career highs in both assists and points in 2017-2018 and the voting for the The Selke Trophy (presented to the league’s top defensive forward) validated his development with 11 first place votes, good for fourth overall behind Anze Kopitar, Sean Couturier and Patrice Bergeron. With all of success he’s had, there is still one phrase missing from Barkov’s original scouting report: elite shootout artist.

Barkov has been one of the league’s best in the one-on-one skills competition over the past three seasons, leading the league with 16 successful shootout attempts. During this stretch, he has scored on 72.7% of his attempts, well over double the league average of 31.5%. Barkov’s smooth stickhandling combined with a quick release and deceptive body positioning has resulted in a variety of slick moves that leaves the goaltender out of position and often embarrassed.

Prior to this recent success, Barkov actually struggled in the shootout during his first two seasons, scoring on just three of his first 13 attempts (23.1% success rate). Barkov struggled so much that during his sophomore season, Panthers then head coach Gerard Gallant regularly looked further down the bench when it came time to select prospective shooters. Barkov participated in only four of the team’s 18 shootouts that season, with only one attempt coming in the first three rounds. Barkov hit his stride to begin the 2015-2016 season, scoring on his first four attempts and hasn’t looked back since.

Barkov’s turnaround over the past three seasons is unprecedented as he dug himself a large hole at the beginning of his career. Organizations tend to cut their losses on players with little shootout success in hopes another player will be able to step up. A career shootout success rate of 54.3% puts Barkov in an elite class alongside TJ Oshie, Frans Nielsen, Jonathan Toews, Brad Boyes, Radim Vrbata and Zach Parise. In recent years, Barkov stands above Kyle Turris, Mats Zuccarello, Artemi Panarin and Brayden Point. Of these ten comparables, Brad Boyes is the only one to have less success in his first two years as he went two for 12 before improving to a 43.9% success rate over the next nine seasons. Everyone else shot at or above league average and steadily improved or maintained their success rate from there.

Luck could have played a part in Barkov’s shootout results. His true shootout talent likely lies somewhere in the middle of his early failures and his recent successes. Since success in the shootout can be coached and developed, I’m willing to bet luck wasn’t the main factor in this dramatic switch but rather Barkov consciously changed something in his approach and shot selection that resulted in a higher chance of success. Let’s compare Barkov’s shootout attempts from his first two seasons vs. the last three seasons and see what, if any, changes Barkov has made during the shootout.

The above video shows all of Barkov’s shootout attempts from his first two seasons. A typical attempt involves Barkov skating down the center of the ice while stickhandling and making a lateral move outside the crease. He wasn’t afraid to have fun and be creative at times, skating backwards with the puck in the lower slot, bouncing the puck off his skates and attempting to cut back and beat the goalie with the famous Peter Forsberg move although this often hurt his chances of converting the attempt because he gave away the direction of his move long before he committed to it. Barkov doesn’t try to beat the goaltender with his shot but rather tries to create an opening in which he can slide the puck through.

Breaking down Barkov’s shot selection, his go to move is on the backhand from inside the crease (eight of 13 attempts with an average shot distance of 5.4 feet from the goal line) whereas snap and wrist shots were less frequent and typically from further out (five of 13 shot attempts with an average shot distance of 12.0 feet). This gap in distance by shot type is in line with league averages. Barkov consistently aimed low on the goalie, often keeping the puck flat on the ice: 10 of 13 attempts were aimed at the goalie’s five-hole, low glove side or low blocker side. Over half of his total shot attempts were to the glove side, either high or low.

Stickhandling down the center of the ice, he almost always (12 of 13 attempts) crossed the Royal Road whether in part of a deke or inadvertently but rarely ventured outside the center lane of the ice (just four of 13 attempts; a primer on my definitions of a player crossing the Royal Road and lanes of the ice can be found here).

Barkov showed elements of a successful shootout attempt but wasn’t able to completely piece it together. He often backed the goaltender into his own net but didn’t lift the puck or make enough of a lateral move to take the goaltender off of his posts. Let’s now take a look at Barkov’s recent shootout attempts and see what he’s changed in his approach to the net.

The old Barkov can’t compete in the shootout right now. Why? Because he’s dead. (Sorry for the corny Taylor Swift reference but since I recently saw her live in concert, it’s staying.)

The above video shows all 22 of Barkov’s attempts from the most recent three seasons. There is an increased emphasis on pre-shot movement from Barkov, often making lateral cuts above the circles instead of previously going straight in on the goaltender. Additionally, he changed his point of reference from the center of the ice to either of the inner hashmarks (a majority of his attempts came from the right inner hashmark but occasionally switched it up to the left side), forcing the goaltender to play Barkov at an angle. Barkov’s elite vision and strengthened angle of attack allowed him to better identify the goaltender’s positioning and attack the area of weakness similar to a football quarterback identifying and exploiting a defensive scheme by putting a receiver in motion.

This improved his chance of success by backing the goaltender into his crease then giving himself the option of making a strong horizontal move to the far post or faking a lateral move and cutting back to the short side post. The goaltender was forced to open his stance to cover each of these horizontal moves and in turn, was left vulnerable to allow a shot attempt via the five-hole. He was able to do this without abandoning the creativity he established early in his career, continuing to use the Forsberg deke or kicking the puck back up to his stick.

Delving into the statistics, Barkov still favored the backhand (15 of 22 attempts with an average shot distance of 6.7 feet from the goal line) over snap/wrist shots (seven of 22 attempts with an average shot distance of 10.3 feet from the goal line). It is interesting that in the past three seasons, his average shot distance has increased for backhanders but has decreased for snap/wrist shots. Additionally, he has a much more evenly distributed attack than previously in his career; no net location (high glove/high blocker/low glove/low blocker/five-hole) was stuck more than five times (of 22 attempts) compared to heavily favoring the goaltender’s glove side earlier in his career. Forcing the goalie back into his net and shooting high has become a weapon for Barkov as he has increased the volume and effectiveness of shots aimed towards the goaltender’s high glove or blocker side (seven of 22 shots with a 100% success rate).

Possibly the biggest change in Barkov’s approach has been skating through multiple lanes of the ice (13 of 22 attempts compared to just four of 13 attempts in his first two seasons) while he continues to consistently cross the Royal Road (15 of 22 attempts compared to 12 of 13 attempts in his first two seasons). As shown in the above video, Barkov has moved laterally to cross the Royal Road and different lanes of the ice with much more purpose and deception than earlier in his career.

Jack Han, now a Player Development Analyst for the Toronto Maple Leafs, wrote an article for Hockey Graphs summarizing the success factors in a shootout attempt. These factors include a similar approach to disguise the shooter’s move, making the goaltender move laterally, and positioning the puck in a manner to quickly surprise the goaltender by putting it five-hole. Barkov has consciously changed his approach by effectively combining all of Han’s factors and has resulted in a much higher success rate. Expect Barkov’s shootout success to continue well into the future as he continues to deceive goaltenders with quick lateral dekes.

Follow Steve Ness on Twitter: @QuickkNess

All data is from Hockey-Reference, NHL.com, or collected myself.