If only Astros could hit at home like they do on the road

A sober-minded starting rotation is the face of the Astros this season, but an extroverted lineup still gauges the swagger of the defending World Series champions. When Houston's hitters get on a roll, they are endearing, not intimidating. They dance, gallop and wag their tongues unapologetically, like boys dusting up a sandlot.

The Astros, winners of 11 consecutive games, averaged 7.4 runs during their just-completed 10-game road trip to become baseball's scoring leader. Alex Bregman garnished a dinger off Cole Hamels at Globe Life Park with a skip and a bat flip. George Springer howled from the steps of the visitors' dugout during a 13-5 romp at the Oakland Coliseum. Tony Kemp gave out hugs for home runs and at Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium latched like a baby koala bear around Evan Gattis for the fourth time in four days.

When on the road, the Astros hit, score and win more than any other team, and Jose Altuve leads the league with a .394 batting average. They play like they have been liberated from the confines of Minute Maid Park.

"Every righthanded hitter on our team takes a big, deep breath when we're like, 'Oh, we're about to go on the road,' " Bregman said.

The Astros return Monday for nine games at Minute Maid Park. They rank in the bottom third for home scoring (4.15 runs per game) and OPS (.705).

At home in 2017, the Astros averaged 4.87 runs per game in the regular season and 5.67 in the postseason. Aside from the retirement of Carlos Beltran and inclusion of Kemp, the lineup has remained the same.

This season, righthanded hitters have driven in 75 percent of Houston's runs. They also have a .236 average and .690 OPS at Minute Maid Park. Their .194 average and .549 OPS at Angels Stadium are the only lower numbers at a specific ballpark.

Springer is Houston's only righthanded hitter with a home batting average over .300. Altuve, the reigning Most Valuable Player in the American League, is batting .264.

Imagine how much easier Altuve and the offense might breathe if the team never came home.

The inconsistent production in Houston has been a mystery, but the recent outburst contrasted the insecurity the Astros feel at home. They suggest they are getting robbed of hits at Minute Maid Park.

"Maybe it's the fact that there's limited gaps at home," Bregman said. "We feel like there's no right-center or left-center there because the way people defensively align against us."

Daren Willman of Baseball Savant looked into the observation. He calculated two vectors to see how outfielders defend the gaps at every ballpark. For left-center, there is the vector that righthanded hitters form with the left fielder and center fielder. For right-center, there is the vector that lefthanded hitters form with the right fielder and center fielder.

According to Willman's research, Bregman was right: Outfielders play the gaps tightest on both righthanded and lefthanded hitters at Minute Maid Park.

The left-field Crawford Boxes, with a front wall that is 19 feet tall and 315 feet from home plate, encourage "defenses to shade in the gaps, or pinch the gaps," Astros manager A.J. Hinch said.

"The Crawford Boxes create a positioning where you don't have to play left field," Springer said. "You essentially have an extra defender — that's the wall."

A left fielder typically lines up with the corner of the Crawford Boxes, which allows him to prepare for a carom off the front wall or follow the length of the side wall to run down fly balls in the gap.

When the Astros christened their new ballpark in 2000, the Crawford Boxes seduced right-handed hitters. Many failed to pull balls into a section that had looked like a giant peach basket for home runs.

"Everyone thinks it's a hitter's park because of the Crawford Boxes," Springer said. "It's really not."

Said Bregman: "Those definitely are generous, but it's tough to have an approach to do that. When opposing pitchers come into our place, they're not going to give you pitches to hit into them. They pitch around them."

Data supports the ballpark factor that Bregman posited and Springer endorsed.

But concluding that tight gaps are a cause of the broad struggles at home, it turns out, is more anecdotal than empirical.

Spray charts from this season show that righthanded Astros hitters rarely have struck balls into the gaps, especially the one in left-center. In fact, Bregman and Springer have lined more hits than outs into the gaps.

Perception might be a greater influence over them. The traumatic memory of scorching a ball only to see it snared by a well-positioned defender is difficult to shake off.

Combined spray charts from 2015-2018 show a handful of the Astros' well-struck balls — which based on exit velocity and launch angle are hits more than 50 percent of the time — that fielders caught in or around the gaps at Minute Maid Park.

A horde of robbed hits can feel to a batter like a lost fortune.

"We look backward too much," said Hinch, who is not persuaded that tight gaps are at fault for low scoring at home. "You reflect back to a ball you hit hard."

In general, Hinch is wary of the data that a player seeks to understand a hit or an out rather than focus on his next at-bat.

"Everybody feels like they're educated, but maybe we're not," he said.

He reviles an unconfident mentality.

"I'm not sure that I believe that it's hard to hit home runs into the Crawford Boxes," Hinch said. "(Lefthanded Mariners slugger Kyle) Seager hit one over there the other day. It cost us a game, so I don't know."

Bregman and Springer also suggested Minute Maid Park's center-field wall, which at 409 feet from home plate is the seventh deepest in baseball, thwarts would-be hits.

Springer closed his eyes and shook his head at the mention of 409 feet.

"No, 409 means you have to hit it 420 to hit it out," he said. "It doesn't count how high you have to hit it."

The spray charts are less clear about which of the Astros' deep outs might have been hits at the 22 ballparks with shallower center-field walls. Only another handful of those balls surpassed 395 feet.

For all the scrutiny over Minute Maid Park's configuration, it does not address another puzzling and significant sign of the Astrors' weak hitting in Houston: Their percentage of hard contact is 29 percent at home and 39 percent on the road.

Before they can blame the outfield walls, the Astros have to hit more balls hard enough to reach them.