By: Ricardo Russ (@1788sports, @RicardoLRuss)

The Falcons resume their 2017 campaign after the bye week with a contest against the 2-2 Jay Cutler-led Miami Dolphins. The Falcons last played the Dolphins in 2013, giving up a last minute touchdown pass to Ryan Tannehill to lose 30-27, but both teams have had changed head coaches since their last meeting, and the Dolphins are without Tannehill, who was lost during training camp with a torn ACL, so the 2013 meeting should have little significance for this year’s matchup.



In 2016, the Dolphins returned to the playoffs with a 10-6 record, and were overall a fairly solid team, finishing 17th overall in Football Outsider’s DVOA statistic. The Dolphins had an above average offense, finishing 14th in offensive DVOA, and a below-average defense, finishing 19th in defensive DVOA. In order to address some of their defensive shortcomings, the Dolphins made a host of free agent signings in the offseason, including former Steeler OLB Lawrence Timmons, and safeties Nate Allen and T.J. Mcdonald. Miami also added defensive help via the draft, selecting edge rusher Charles Harris, Linebacker Raekwon Mcmillan, and CB Cordrea Tankersley with their first 3 picks. During the offseason, the Dolphins notably lost awesomely named S Bacarri Rambo to the Bills, while explosive tight end Jordan Cameron also retired in the offseason.

Before Tannehill’s injury, the Dolphins were expected to continue their 2016 success, return to the playoffs, and possibly snatch the AFC East crown from the Patriots. However, with the loss of their starter the Dolphins were forced to resort to either relying on 2016 backup Matt Moore or making a signing or trade to bring in a QB. While Moore did play capably in relief of Tannehill last season, the Dolphins instead chose to bring former Bears QB Jay Cutler out of retirement to serve as their starter.



Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Cutler’s acquisition has not allowed the offense to reach the standard they set last season. In fact, the Dolphins offense has been among the worst in the NFL, if not the worst as their offense has yet to score a first-half TD, and has been outscored in the first half by their own defense, 7-6. Not only has the offense played poorly, but it’s also been uninspired all season. (Though Cutler was just doing his job on the aforementioned wildcat play)



In particular, Cutler’s play has not been nearly up to the standard set by Tannehill in 2016, or to Cutler’s career numbers. For his career, Cutler averages 5.82 adjusted net yards per attempt with a completion percentage of 62.0% and a 4.6% TD percentage. However, in Miami, his adjusted net yards per attempt has dipped to 3.91, while he’s only throwing a TD on 2.3% of his passes. All in all, Cutler is currently posting a 21.7 QBR, placing him above only Browns rookie Deshone Kizer, and being below everyone except a Browns’ QB is never a good place to be. Cutler’s also been markedly conservative with his distribution, mostly relying on the short passing game. While some of Cutler’s ineffective play is likely a result of the Dolphins’ tumultuous start to the season, since Miami has had to deal with losing their starting QB a month before the season and then being forced to reschedule their week 1 game as a result of Hurricane Irma, his regression is assuredly worrying for the Miami front office.



Cutler’s poor play is also preventing Miami from taking advantage of their arsenal of skill position weapons, including occasionally dominant RB Jay Ajayi. In 2016, Ajayi posted a unique stat line as he ran for over 200 yards in 3 different games, despite only having one other game above 100 yards last season. This year, the hard-running back has been largely stifled, with 3.4 yards per carry, despite a 122 yard performance against the Chargers in the Dolphins first game, and Cutler’s ineffective play has not helped open holes for him.



More directly, Cutler’s play has adversely affected the Dolphins’ talented receiving corps. In 2016, slot threat Jarvis Landry caught 94 passes for 1136 yards and 4 TD’s, while also showcasing his elusiveness in racking up nearly 600 yards after the catch.This year, Landy does have 30 catches through only 4 games, but he’s also only averaging 7.0 yards per catch, with 1 td on the season. Similarly, outside WR DeVante Parker is averaging 12.4 yards per catch after averaging 13.3 yards per catch in 2016, while deep threat Kenny Stills is averaging nearly 6 yards less per catch. Clearly, Cutler’s presence is causing the Miami passing game to be less explosive in 2017 than it was in 2016.





The offensive ineptitude of the Dolphins has to be particularly frustrating for the Dolphin faithful, as the Miami defense has been great all season, energizing them to their 2-2 record. The Dolphins are currently 4th in the league in points allowed, allowing only 16.8 PPG, and 9th in yards per play, allowing 5.1 yards per play. The Dolphin defensive dominance is even more notable since they’ve not been helped all that much by their offense.



The Miami defense is stout along the front line, with star DT Ndamukong Suh and DE Cameron Wake leading the charge. For the season, Suh has 2 TFL and a sack, while also occupying blockers and giving Wake and the rest of his D-Line cohort the chance to take on single blocks. Wake has responded with 2.5 sacks, and DE Andre Branch leads the Dolphins in sacks, with 3.0.



In the second level, the Dolphins are energized by the sideline to sideline play of MLB Kiko Alonso, who leads the ‘Phins with 28 tackles. Alonso also has 3 TFL, a forced fumble, and a pass breakup, which shows the former Philadelphia LB’s ability to contribute against both the run and the pass. The Dolphins’ have also gotten good contributions from veteran OLB Lawrence Timmons, 2nd year player Mike Hull, and rookie Chase Allen in the LB corps.



In the secondary, the Dolphins have been exposed a little bit, as they’re currently allowing the 5th highest A/NYA in the league, but they have also gotten some huge plays from members of the secondary. In particular, Former UGA S Reshad Jones has been a force, returning a fumble for a score last week against the Titans. The Dolphins’ young corners have also been good, as 2nd year CB Xavien Howard and rookie Cordrea Tankersley have each broken up two passes on the season.



Final Prediction:

While the Dolphins have been very good on defense, their quite frankly awful offense will hold them back against the Falcons’ resurgent defense. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ offense should bounce back from a bit of an underwhelming performance against the Bills, and that, along with the (hopeful) return of Julio Jones, should put the game out of reach of the Dolphins.



Score prediction:

Miami 13-Atlanta 31

