The Kansas City Royals, at the moment I am writing this, are nine outs away from punching a ticket to the 2014 ALCS. Having dispatched the Oakland A’s in one of the most unusual and exciting deciding games in baseball history, the Royals have won two extra-inning contests on the road in Anaheim. They’re at home in Kansas City now, and are up on the Angels 7-2.

The Royals are a strange baseball team. Their best offensive player in Alex Gordon, a player who hit 19 homeruns this year. He drove in 74 runners, walked 65 times, and tallied an OPS of .783. All of those tallies ledthe team.

The guy who threw the most innings for the Royals was James Shields, who posted a very good 3.21 ERA over 227 innings pitched. The guy who was second in innings pitched was Jeremy Guthrie, who allowed a 4.13 ERA in 202.2 innings. The guy who pitched the third-most innings was Jason Vargas, who pitched like Jason Vargas.

The Royals don’t have a good lineup. They have some talented started (Yordano Ventura should pitch Game 1 of the ALCS, if the Royals win today), but their starting pitching isn’t brilliant. No one’s confusing them with the (recently dispatched) Tigers, or the (still alive, though barely) Nationals.

The Royals do have positives. Most famously, they have an excellent bullpen, and a terrific defensive outfield. On the offense side of the coin, they’re the best team in baseball on the basepaths (153-for-189 in stolen base attempts), and they’re the hardest team in the majors to strike out.

Leaving aside the bullpen and outfield defense, let’s talk about those two offensive components: the Royals ability to avoid strikeouts, and their ability to steal bases.

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This is one of those articles that builds on itself: we’ll start with one question, and see what we get for an answer, and then we’ll see what other questions come up. I don’t have an agenda here…I’m just fumbling around in the dark.

Here we go.

Question 1: Is the Royals strikeout rate actually rare, or are they just a few ticks below everyone else?

The 2014 Royals whiffed 985 times this year, the best mark in the majors. The next team on the list were the Oakland A’s, with 1104 strikeouts. The major league average was 1246 whiffs. The Cubs led with 1477 batting strikeouts.

We can determine the relative difference between the Royals strikeout total and the league average by subtracting the Royals tally from the league average, and dividing that by the sum of the Royals tally and the league average when divided by two. That works out to:

(1246-985) / ((1246+985)/2)

Which becomes 0.236. That’s the relative difference between the Royals strikeout tally and the league average.

Let’s put it in a nice table, so that we can read it.

Year Team Strikeouts Lg. Avg. Rel. Diff. 2014 KCR 985 1248 .236

Terrific….it’s nice to have a number that quantifies their ability to make contact. But we need some contexts to understand what that .236 mark means.

The best contact team in 2013 was….cue the drumroll….the Kansas City Royals. The best contact team in 2012 was the Royals, too. They’ve been the best contact team in baseball for three straight seasons. Let’s get them on the spreadsheet:

Year Team Strikeouts Lg. Avg. Rel. Diff. 2014 KCR 985 1248 .236 2013 KCR 1048 1224 .155 2012 KCR 1032 1214 .162

This is already interesting: thought the ’14 Royals are repeating what the team did in 2012 and 2013, we can see that they’ve gotten more contact-prone. While the league strikeout rate has increased, the Royals batting whiffs have decreased. Their relative difference to the league is a lothigher this year than it was in 2013 or 2012.

That still doesn’t give us a sense of these numbers. What’s .236, in a wider context? Going ten years back…..we’ll look at the best contact teams every year of the last decade:

Year Team Strikeouts Lg. Avg. Rel. Diff. 2014 KCR 985 1248 .236 2013 KCR 1048 1224 .155 2012 KCR 1032 1214 .162 2011 TEX 930 1150 .212 2010 KCR 905 1144 .233 2009 NYM 928 1120 .188 2008 SEA 890 1096 .207 2007 MIN 839 1073 .245 2006 MIN 872 1055 .190

While the 2013 and 2012 Royals didn’t quite match the 2014 team in making-contact-over-the-league-average, a few recent teams have matched our current Royals. The 2010 Kansas City team managed to post a relative difference of .233, which is very close to this year’s team. The 2007 Minnesota Twins were actually a bit more contact-prone than the current Royals.

We’ve had twenty seasons of Wild Card baseball now…let’s list the top contact teams, year-by-year, for the Wild Card era. And let’s rate them by their relative difference, just to see where the 2014 Royals stand:

Year Team Strikeouts Lg. Avg. Rel. Diff. 2002 ANA 805 1046 .260 1999 CHW 810 1037 .246 2007 MIN 839 1073 .245 2014 KCR 985 1248 .236 2010 KCR 905 1144 .233 2005 OAK 819 1021 .220 2000 KCR 840 1045 .218 1996 CLE 844 1047 .215 2011 TEX 930 1150 .212 2008 SEA 890 1096 .207 2003 ANA 838 1027 .203 2004 SFG 874 1061 .193 2006 MIN 872 1055 .190 2009 NYM 928 1120 .188 2001 KCR 898 1080 .184 1997 CHW 901 1069 .171 1995 CLE 766 908 .170 1998 BAL 903 1063 .163 2012 KCR 1032 1214 .162 2013 KCR 1048 1224 .155

Our current Royals, now up 8-2 in the seventh inning of Game 3 of the ALDS, are the fourth-best contact team in baseball since the start of the Wild Card. So that’s one question answered: the Royals are very much a high-contact team relative to their league contexts. They are really good at avoiding the whiff.

And they’re not absolutely unique: there have been a few other teams that have had contact rates about as high as the 2014 Royals.

Who’s number one on the list? The 2002 Angels. For those who don’t remember 2002, the Angels won the World Series.

This gives us our second question.

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Question 2: Do teams with low strikeout rates do well on a season-by-season basis? Are these typically playoff teams, or championship teams?

The Royals have a low strikeout rate, and they’re now in the ALCS. The 2002 Angels had the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the Wild Card era, and they won the World Series. Is there a pattern here?

Looking at those twenty teams, with their regular-season win-loss records:

Year Team Rel. Diff. Wins Losses Playoffs? 2014 KCR .236 89 73 ALCS 2013 KCR .155 86 76 No 2012 KCR .162 72 90 No 2011 TEX .212 96 66 Lost WS 2010 KCR .233 67 95 No 2009 NYM .188 70 92 No 2008 SEA .207 61 101 No 2007 MIN .245 79 83 No 2006 MIN .190 96 66 Lost LDS 2005 OAK .220 88 74 No 2004 SFG .193 91 71 No 2003 ANA .203 77 85 No 2002 ANA .260 99 63 Won WS 2001 KCR .184 65 97 No 2000 KCR .218 77 85 No 1999 CHW .246 75 86 No 1998 BAL .163 79 83 No 1997 CHW .171 80 81 No 1996 CLE .215 99 62 Lost LDS 1995 CLE .170 100 44 Lost WS Totals Teams .203 1646 1573 6 of 20

Nope…there’s no hint that low strikeout teams have a tendency to do much better than any other teams. This group, cumulatively, is a little above .500. The presence of the mid-1990’s Cleveland teams, a near-historic collection of hitting talent, sways the group above .500, but there’s no strong correlation between avoiding the strikeout and winning games.

A savvy person might point out that the current Royals and the World Champion Angels are on the far end of the spectrum, posting relative differences of .260 and .236. Maybe the benefit lies with the extremecontact teams?

We can split our twenty teams into two groups: those with the higher relative difference in strikeout rates, and those with the lower relative difference. Let’s see if that makes a difference:

Year Team Rel. Diff. W-L * Year Team Rel. Diff. W-L 2002 ANA .260 99-63 * 2003 ANA .203 77-85 1999 CHW .246 75-86 * 2004 SFG .193 91-71 2007 MIN .245 79-83 * 2006 MIN .190 96-66 2014 KCR .236 89-73 * 2009 NYM .188 70-92 2010 KCR .233 67-95 * 2001 KCR .184 65-97 2005 OAK .220 88-74 * 1997 CHW .171 80-81 2000 KCR .218 77-85 * 1995 CLE .170 100-44 1996 CLE .215 99-62 * 1998 BAL .163 79-83 2011 TEX .212 96-66 * 2012 KCR .162 72-90 2008 SEA .207 61-101 * 2013 KCR .155 86-76 Totals .229 830-788 * Total .177 816-785

Nope. The teams with the higher relative difference in strikeout tallies have a winning percentage of .513. The teams with the lower relative difference have a winning percentage of .510. No difference, really.

This is a bummer. There’s no evidence that teams that have low strikeout rates have done particularly well over the last twenty years.

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Question 3: Okay, so making contact doesn’t seem to help a team reach the playoffs. What about when they’re IN the playoffs? Do high-contact teams tend to do well in October baseball?

I should note here that the Royals have won: they're advancing to the ALCS, to tangle with the Baltimore Orioles.

We’re dealing with a small sample size: just six teams. It’d be useful to go through all of the baseball teams ever and get a broader sample, but it’s hard enough looking at a small spreadsheet when there are so many amazing games happening every day.

Sticking to our six playoff teams:

Year Team Rel. Diff. Playoff W-L, by Series Postseason W-L 2014 KCR .236 1-0, 3-0 4-0 2011 TEX .212 3-1, 4-2, 3-4 10-7 2006 MIN .190 0-3 0-3 2002 ANA .260 3-1, 4-1, 4-3 11-5 1996 CLE .215 1-3 1-3 1995 CLE .170 3-0, 4-2, 2-4 9-6

Of the thirteen playoff series our high-contact teams have played, they’ve managed to win an impressive nine of those. They have a cumulative W-L record of 35-24 in playoff baseball, an impressing .59 winning percentage.

This might be something….there is at least a suggestion that teams with low strikeout rates tends to do pretty good in the postseason.

From that, we can speculate why this might be true. It’s possible that most playoff teams have good pitchers, pitchers with higher-than-average strikeout rates. Maybe high-contact teams frustrate good pitchers more than high-walk teams.

Maybe it’s a weather thing….October games are cold, and cold weather dampens offense. That means less homers and more fly-outs from the big boppers. Maybe singles-punching teams like the Royals do well because an offense that plays for one run does better in cold weather.

Lots of possibilities. Lots of roads to go down.

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Question 4: You said you were going to mention speed, didn’t you? Do the Royals have a high relative difference on the base paths?

Sure they did. Of course they did. The Royals led the majors in steals, with 153. If you lead the league in a category, you’ll also lead the league in the relative difference between your total and the league average.

The relative difference between their stolen base total (153) and the major league average (92) was .498, the highest in baseball.

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Question 5: Is their rate of stolen bases, relative to the league average, particularly high?

Here are the top teams every year of the Wild Card era, by relative difference in stolen bases:

Year Team Stolen Bases Lg. Avg. Rel Diff. (SB) 2014 KCR 153 92 .498 2013 KCR 153 90 .519 2012 MIL 158 108 .376 2011 SDP 170 109 .437 2010 TBR 172 99 .539 2009 TBR 194 99 .648 2008 TBR 142 93 .417 2007 NYM 200 97 .694 2006 LAA 148 92 .467 2005 LAA 161 86 .607 2004 LAA 143 86 .498 2003 FLA 150 86 .542 2002 FLA 177 92 .632 2001 SEA 174 103 .513 2000 FLA 168 97 .536 1999 SDP 174 114 .417 1998 TOR 184 109 .512 1997 CIN 190 118 .468 1996 COL 201 116 .536 1995 CIN 190 105 .576

The Royals are pretty good, but by no means are they historic: of the twenty teams listed above, the Royals rank just 13th in their relative difference of stolen bases. The 2007 New York Mets, who stole 200 bases during a year when the major league average was 97, rate as the best stealing team of the Wild Card era.

(A quick note: I used the Major League average each season, instead of the individual league’s average. While someone will point out that it’d be more accurate to use separate league averages, using the major league average probably doesn’t skew the math terribly. In 2007 the Major League average was 97 steals per team….and the NL average was 98 steals.)

You’ll note, on the above table, that the tallies for relative difference in stolen bases is higher each year than the relative difference in strikeouts. This makes sense: the difference between 153 and 92 (the 2014 Royals stolen base tally and the major league average) is relatively greater than the difference between 945 and 1248 (the 2014 Royals strikeout total, and the major league average).

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Question 6. What about that original list of teams? Are there any crossovers? Do any of the teams who had low strikeout rates ALSO have high stolen base totals, relative to their league?

Looking at our original list of high-contact teams, and adding their relative difference in stolen bases:

Year Team Rel. Diff. (K's) Team SB's Lg. Avg. Rel Diff. (SB) 2014 KCR .236 153 92 .498 2013 KCR .155 153 90 .519 2012 KCR .162 132 108 .200 2011 TEX .212 143 109 .270 2010 KCR .233 115 99 .150 2009 NYM .188 122 99 .208 2008 SEA .207 90 93 -.033 2007 MIN .245 112 97 .144 2006 MIN .190 101 92 .093 2005 OAK .220 31 86 -.940 2004 SFG .193 43 86 -.667 2003 ANA .203 129 86 .400 2002 ANA .260 117 92 .239 2001 KCR .184 100 103 -.030 2000 KCR .218 121 97 .220 1999 CHW .246 110 114 -.036 1998 BAL .163 86 109 -.236 1997 CHW .171 106 118 -.107 1996 CLE .215 160 116 .319 1995 CLE .170 132 105 .228

There a few teams in the negatives….a few high-contact teams that stole fewer bases than the league average:

Year Team Rel. Diff. (K's) Rel Diff. (SB) 2001 KCR .184 -.030 2008 SEA .207 -.033 1999 CHW .246 -.036 1997 CHW .171 -.107 1998 BAL .163 -.236 2004 SFG .193 -.667 2005 OAK .220 -.940 Totals xx 0.197 -0.224

These teams aren’t logical comparable to the 2014 Royals: though they matched the KC’ers in contract abilities, they don’t compare on the bases.

These thirteen teams do have a high relative difference in strikeouts, and a high relative difference in stolen bases. They are the logical comparable to the 2014 Royals:

Year Team Rel. Diff. (K's) Rel Diff. (SB) 2013 KCR .155 .519 2014 KCR .236 .498 2003 ANA .203 .400 1996 CLE .215 .319 2011 TEX .212 .270 2002 ANA .260 .239 1995 CLE .170 .228 2000 KCR .218 .220 2009 NYM .188 .208 2012 KCR .162 .200 2010 KCR .233 .150 2007 MIN .245 .144 2006 MIN .190 .093 Totals xx .206 .275

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Question 7: We know that teams who avoid strikeouts alone aren’t great. Is there any evidence that teams who BOTH avoid strikeouts AND steal lots of bases do well?

Here are the seasonal records of the seven low-strikeout, low-stolen base teams…the teams that posted an excellent relative difference in strikeouts, but a negative relative difference in stolen bases:

Year Team Rel. Diff. (K's) Rel Diff. (SB) Wins Losses Postseason 2001 KCR .184 -.030 65 97 No 2008 SEA .207 -.033 61 101 No 1999 CHW .246 -.036 75 86 No 1997 CHW .171 -.107 80 81 No 1998 BAL .163 -.236 79 83 No 2004 SFG .193 -.667 91 71 No 2005 OAK .220 -.940 88 74 No Totals xx .197 -.224 539 593 0-for-7

They have a winning percentage of .476. More significantly, they never made the playoffs.

Here are the teams who have positive tallied in the relative difference of strikeouts and stolen bases:

Year Team Rel. Diff. (K's) Rel Diff. (SB) Wins Losses Postseason 2014 KCR .236 .498 89 73 ALCS 2013 KCR .155 .519 86 76 No 2003 ANA .203 .400 77 85 No 1996 CLE .215 .319 99 62 Lost LDS 2002 ANA .260 .239 99 63 Won WS 2011 TEX .212 .270 96 66 Lost WS 2000 KCR .218 .220 77 85 No 1995 CLE .170 .228 100 44 Lost WS 2009 NYM .188 .208 70 92 No 2007 MIN .245 .144 79 83 No 2010 KCR .233 .150 67 95 No 2012 KCR .162 .200 72 90 No 2006 MIN .190 .093 96 66 Lost LDS Totals xx .206 .275 657 621 6 out of 13

These teams, which include our current Royals, tallied a winning percentage of .531, and reached the postseason a little less than half the time. They won most of their postseason games, as we’ve already discussed.

So there does seem to be evidence that teams that have the ability to a) make contact, and b) steal bases tend to do pretty well.

Way back at Question 3 we discovered that high-contact teams have done pretty well once they get into the post-season, going 35-24 in postseason matchups and winning 9 out of 15 playoff rounds they’ve been in.

Well….all of those teams had high stolen base totals relative to the league average. So while each factor, viewed individually, seems to have only a marginal effect on team performance, having both factors contribute significantly to a team’s success in the regular season, and in the post-season.

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Question 8: Are the 2014 Royals in any way unique? Can their combination of avoiding strikeouts and stealing bases be viewed as at all historic?

Sure. Absolutely.

While the 2014 Royals don’t have an uniquely low strikeout rate or a uniquely high stolen base total, the combinationof those two poles on the 2014 Royals is historic, at least in the twenty years of the Wild Card era.

Here are those thirteen teams with low strikeouts and high stolen base tallies, ranked by their total Relative Difference….their relative differences in strikeouts, added to their relative difference in stolen bases:

Year Team Rel. Diff. (K's) Rel Diff. (SB) Rel Diff. (Total) 2014 KCR .236 .498 .734 2013 KCR .155 .519 .674 2003 ANA .203 .400 .603 1996 CLE .215 .319 .534 2002 ANA .260 .239 .499 2011 TEX .212 .270 .482 2000 KCR .218 .220 .438 1995 CLE .170 .228 .398 2009 NYM .188 .208 .396 2007 MIN .245 .144 .389 2010 KCR .233 .150 .383 2012 KCR .162 .200 .362 2006 MIN .190 .093 .283

The 2014 Royals come out on top. No team in the Wild Card era has managed to avoid strikeouts and steal bases to the degree that the 2014 Royals have. The closest team to them was last year’s version of the team, the 2013 Royals. We’re seeing the greatest contact/speed team of the Wild Card era.

This is cherry-picking, but the eightteams with the highest total Relative Difference were exceptionally good baseball teams….they were great in the regular season and great in the post-season:

Year Team Rel Diff. (Total) Wins Losses Postseason 2014 KCR .734 89 73 ALCS 2013 KCR .674 86 76 No 2003 ANA .603 77 85 No 1996 CLE .534 99 62 Lost LDS 2002 ANA .499 99 63 Won WS 2011 TEX .482 96 66 Lost WS 2000 KCR .438 77 85 No 1995 CLE .398 100 44 Lost WS

This group averages a 91-win season. Three of the eight won 99 or 100 games.

Of these eight teams, all in the Wild Card era, three managed to advance past the Division and Championshop Series, reaching the World Series. One managed to win the World Series.

And another team, a team that ranks as the best contact/speed offense since the Wild Card started, has a good chance to play deep into October. I wouldn’t bet against them.