Outside perhaps the Dallas Cowboys, there’s really only one team to beat in the NFL. It’s become such a common refrain in recent years that’s it’s borderline boring at this point, but it’s still true. Even without Gronk, even with a 39-year-old Tom Brady, the New England Patriots are the best team in the NFL.

But the NFL playoffs aren’t there to sort out the best team. If you truly wanted to do that, you’d scrap them altogether, or you’d follow the lead of the NBA and adopt a seven game series.

No, the playoffs reward the best team on the night. It’s why the 16-0 Patriots can lose to the Giants, and the 15-1 Panthers can do the same against the Broncos. And it’s why, if the superior Patriots find themselves up against the Falcons this post-season, they could find themselves in some trouble.

Here’s why: From the start 2014 season, including post-season games, the(let that sink in for a second). Two of its losses were meaningless week 17 games and another was that weird 16-0 Jacoby Brissett game earlier this season.

Throw out those three outliers; the raw number of points the Pats score stays relatively similar between wins and losses. New England posts an average of just over 21 points in its losses, and about 30 points in its wins. It’s a swing of about a touchdown, but when you’re talking about tough battles against teams actually good enough to beat the Pats — like the Seahawks, Chiefs and two against the Broncos — it’s not overly surprising.

But the biggest swing comes on the defensive side of the ball. And that’s the problem.

In its wins, the Patriots restrict teams to an average of just over 16 points (again, let that sink in). When it loses, though, the team’s average number of points allowed spikes to more than 30. It’s a huge swing, and it’s quite telling.

The formula for beating the Pats — if there is one — is not in trying to restrict their offense, but rather cracking them open on defense and forcing them to speed up. Teams don’t stand a chance when they try to grind the Pats down. But when they force them into a shootout? That’s where the opportunity lies.

Looking around the 2016 NFL playoff picture, and factoring-in Derek Carr’s devastating injury, there’s only one team best-equipped to do that.

Which brings us to the Atlanta Falcons.

This is not to disparage the great offensive play going on in Dallas right now, but even the most ardent Cowboys fan would admit that Atlanta’s offense is on another level.

Atlanta score more points per game than any team in the NFL, and of teams involved in the playoffs, it’ll come in with the highest number of offensive yards, average yards per game, and expected points per game. They’ve done it all facing the toughest schedule in the league, and as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell notes, it’s good enough to rank them “in the 99th percentile of offenses since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970.”

Teams can’t beat the Pats at their own game. As the league’s other best teams, notably the Seahawks, struggle to put up points and hope its defense carries them through, the Atlanta Falcons offer something totally different. They’re one dimensional in the extreme, and while that may make them streaky during the regular season, it also might give them just what they need to pick New England’s lock. And in one, do-or-die game, that’s all you need.