The National Rifle Association began 2018 with plenty of reason for optimism. Two horrific mass shootings had rocked the nation in the previous three months ― one of them the deadliest in modern U.S. history ― but by January, any fervor for gun control in Congress had mostly subsided. With a staunch ally in the White House and GOP majorities in both branches of Congress, at least through the end of the year, the NRA seemed positioned to advance its pro-gun agenda over the next 12 months, further cementing its standing as one of the nation’s most politically influential organizations. Instead, in the waning days of 2018, the NRA now appears to be worse off than it has been in years. The group has made no progress on its federal legislative priorities, and reportedly faces stiff financial headwinds, as well as the looming threat of a pair of explosive scandals involving Russian money and influence. Perhaps more concerning for the NRA, this year made clear that it’s losing its stranglehold on the conversation around firearms in the U.S. The February school shooting in Parkland, Florida, led to surging momentum in favor of stronger gun laws. A student-led movement emerged in response, quickly singling out the NRA as its chief enemy, and ultimately helping gun safety candidates win victories in the midterm elections. Doctors also jumped into the anti-NRA fray later in the year, publicly thumping the group over its demands that the medical community keep quiet on issues of gun violence. Despite the challenges for the NRA, experts say it’s too early to know if 2018 was merely a blip or a sign of worse things to come. But as the group looks to claw back power in 2019, here are some of the issues it’s up against.

Noam Galai via Getty Images An anti-gun violence display is seen in the months after the Parkland shooting. The NRA took a hit this year amid a new wave of activism in support of stronger gun laws.

Losing Its Grip For more than two decades, the NRA has been the most powerful force in the gun debate. The NRA’s opposition has meanwhile ebbed and flowed, with gun reform advocacy typically swelling after high-profile shootings and subsiding over time, sometimes without much progress to show for it. That pattern was once again put to the test in 2018. After the Parkland shooting, students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School and around the country organized massive nationwide demonstrations demanding action. The protests may not have moved Congress, but change did come elsewhere ― in 2018 alone, 27 states passed 67 new gun safety laws, according to a tally by the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. Many of those measures passed with support from Republicans. The youth-led movement was also able to help provide a spark for sustained momentum in favor of gun reform. Polling suggested there was still substantial enthusiasm around the issue this election season, especially among suburban voters. And for the first time ever this midterm election, gun safety organizations actually outspent the NRA, as the pro-gun group’s outlays fell sharply this cycle. After years of dominance on the issue of firearms, a formidable foe may finally have emerged to challenge the NRA’s supremacy, said Robert Spitzer, a professor at SUNY Cortland who’s written extensively on gun policy. “They’ve kind of been cut down to size and now it’s a much more even contest,” he said. “That’s what the gun safety groups have been after ― a way to rectify the structural imbalance that has favored the NRA politically.”

Kevin Mazur via Getty Images Student organizers address the crowd at the March For Our Lives rally in Washington, D.C. The movement has helped "rectify the structural imbalance that has favored the NRA," said Robert Spitzer, a professor at SUNY Cortland.

New Calls For Action The unprecedented activity by gun safety groups this election season proved to be a worthy investment, with a dozens of so-called “gun sense” candidates winning key congressional races and helping Democrats retake the House. “The midterm elections demonstrated that a growing number of candidates could campaign expressly on supporting stronger gun laws, including in states that are not particularly liberal, and win on that campaign without suffering bad consequences,” Spitzer said. Democratic leaders have since vowed to take swift action on gun reform in the new congressional session, likely beginning with a bill to require federal background checks on all firearm sales. With Donald Trump in the White House and Republicans still in control of the Senate, such a proposal would have very little chance of becoming law. But even a House vote could provide fuel for gun safety advocates and serve as a wedge issue for Democrats who feel the political landscape on guns has shifted in their favor. In effect, they could follow a path like the one House Republicans took when they voted repeatedly to repeal Obamacare, even while Democrats controlled the Senate and Barack Obama was president, said Adam Winkler, a professor at the UCLA School of Law and an expert on gun policy. “Republicans did it over and over again, it was a symbolic thing, it appealed to voters, they knew it wasn’t going to get adopted, but they took 70 something votes on it anyway,” he said. But such a strategy could also be risky, as it would likely provide the NRA with fodder to mobilize its supporters ahead of the 2020, said Scott Melzer, a professor at Albion College who’s written about the history of the gun rights movement. “The NRA is especially prone to identifying bogeymen, or in this case, a bogeywoman in [Speaker of the House-elect] Nancy Pelosi, who will serve as the face of the threat to gun rights,” said Melzer. “That’s been the playbook for 20-plus years and it’s been highly effective.”

Tom Williams via Getty Images House Democrats have nominated Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to serve as the next speaker of the House. The NRA will likely target her publicly if Democrats take up new gun control legislation this session.

Facebook Convicted Russian agent Maria Butina is seen with NRA executive vice president Wayne LaPierre in 2014. The NRA remains under a cloud of scrutiny stemming from a set of still-developing scandals.