The very day after Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) was officially anointed the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential nominee, KMT Central Evaluation Committee member Chao Shou-po (趙守博) gave his analysis at the committee’s annual meeting at the party’s headquarters. It was dire.

The press and social media focused on this part of his analysis, as reported in the Taipei Times:

Han should be transparent about any issues with drinking alcohol, Chao said, citing reports about the mayor’s alleged drinking problem. ‘Han should quit drinking from now until the end of the presidential election,’ he said. ‘What could be so difficult about quitting drinking?’ If Han vowed to quit drinking, it would improve the public’s impression of him, he added.

This was followed up by comments by ex-KMT Central Review Committee member Chen Hung-chang (陳宏昌) who said that Han has a problem with playing mahjong, drinking and womanizing. Former Kaohsiung County commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興), who served six months as convener for Han’s panel on cross-strait affairs, added to this criticism, stating that Han “has a mistress, binge drinks and goes to nightclubs” and called him “incompetent and untrustworthy.” Chen has since been kicked out of the KMT, while Yang resigned before the party could expel him. Han has defended himself, saying this was all in the past and he is not like this now, though images of him playing mahjong over the Lunar New Year holiday contradicted that.

This played out exactly like much of the media coverage of Han does: Those who can’t stand him tut-tut, laugh, make and trade memes, or roll their eyes in disgust. However, to his intensely loyal fan base, it is doubtful it made any dent in his popularity. For many, the fallout surely added to his “man of the people” image.

The Mystique of the Remarkable Han Kuo-yu

A year ago, most people had never heard of Han. He had been a legislator back in the 1990s, and if anyone remembered him, it was for punching up fellow legislator and future President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), hospitalizing him for three days. By the end of September 2018, everyone knew his name—and by Christmas, he was the mayor of Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s third largest city.

It was a remarkable run. This was a man born into the KMT’s Huang Fu-hsing (黃復興) branch—an ultra-Chinese nationalist military veterans wing of the party—with gangster affiliations and virtually no knowledge of the city he was running for mayor of. Kaohsiung was considered so hostile to the KMT, the party effectively ran this nobody because they figured it was hopeless to even try to win—and to get him out of their hair following a failed run at being party chair. A string of gaffes and the full might of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) could not stop the so-called “Han wave.”

Han won over the public to win convincingly in a city he was never supposed to even have a hope at winning. He has cultivated a “man of the people,” “man next door” image—in spite of being no such thing. He is a “mainlander” (of a military family from Henan that arrived with the Republic of China government-in-exile in 1949), but has picked up the more humble style—sometimes almost in exaggerated form—of the Taiwanese who have lived here locally for centuries. He is relentlessly optimistic, while bluntly pointing to problems. He is consistently positive, even when others go negative. He rolls up his trademark button-down blue shirt sleeves and wades into the crowd and leads them in singing nostalgic and patriotic songs.

He is an unlikely, and remarkable, phenomenon.

Down but Not Out

Polls have since shown that if the Kaohsiung mayoral election were held again, Han would probably lose. He has lost many of the independent voters who were once enthusiastic about him. Two recent polls indicate that between 37% and 43% of respondents support the KMT replacing Han as the party’s presidential candidate.

However, he retains a remarkably resilient and dedicated fan base that is deeply and personally committed to him. They are the taxi drivers with Han bobbleheads in their cabs, the building managers with Han stickers on their phones, the ones who flock to his rallies with Republic of China (ROC) flags in hand and tell all their friends and family to support him. These loyal supporters have so far provided him with a fairly high base of support in the polls. This base loyal to him personally, most heavily in the 45 to 65-year-old demographic, likely makes up over 20% of the electorate. Combined with die-hard KMT voters, he could command as much as the upper 30s or even low 40s in a head-to-head race with incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).

Those figures, however, look increasingly shaky. The race may become a three-way, or even a four-way race. Neither the strong runner-up in the KMT primary race, Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘), nor the powerful KMT factional politician Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) appear to have any interest in supporting him. Gou is widely suspected to be considering an independent run, and curiously, Wang Jin-pyng is essentially campaigning for president despite opting not to participate in the party primary. Without their support, many KMT voters will either vote for alternatives or stay home. It is easy to see breaking through 30% becoming a problem for Han—most three or four way race polls have him in the mid 20% range. That figure consists primarily of his loyal base.

The problem Han has is not a lack of a solid floor, but rather a likely low ceiling on his support.

One huge reason for this is his stance on relations with China. He is far more pro-China in his actions and words than the majority of the Taiwanese electorate. National elections in Taiwan are, above all else, shaped by the issue of national sovereignty in the face of challenges from Beijing. His Chinese nationalist stance, and accommodating attitude to the Chinese Communist Party-led People’s Republic of China (PRC) is roughly as far out of the mainstream as Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), who won the KMT primary ahead of Taiwan’s January 2016 presidential election. By the fall of 2015, Hung was considered such a no-hope candidate that the KMT convened a convention to throw her out and replace her with the party chairman, Eric Chu (朱立倫).

Han is more charismatic than Hung, but he also has many other problems that she did not. He is facing a recall effort to get him removed from office that has so far successfully passed the first hurdle in collecting the requisite amount of signatures—and may soon pass the second hurdle. Han has reportedly asked his own city employees to not hand out recall petitions during work hours. He has continued to be gaffe-prone. It has been revealed he was convicted of negligent manslaughter in connection with a 2004 traffic incident. He is currently under investigation for financial improprieties. With his colorful background and known ties to unsavory characters, there is a significant chance more will come out closer to the election.

The Path to the Presidency Is Problematic

With his strongly loyal base and the backing of a powerful party, there should in theory be a path to win over the large pool of voters that don’t like Tsai Ing-wen, even if other candidates enter the fray and more gaffes and bad news comes out. But it will be difficult.

This is where Chao Shou-po’s analysis is worth paying attention to. His comments reflect his worries as a leader in the party about his candidate’s faults. Here are some of his concerns.

From the Taipei Times article:

The KMT must help Han build a strong campaign team and improve his knowledge about national policies, foreign affairs, cross-strait relations and economic issues, he said.

Familiarity with national affairs is necessary, as Han must eventually debate President Tsai Ing-wen, who is running for re-election, Chao said.

‘Having slogans is not good enough,’ as they only work at rallies, Chao added.

Chao clearly thinks Han is weak on the issues. This is a common complaint about Han: His answers to policy questions are frequently answered with slogans, deflected or answered in such a way that suggests he isn’t very well versed on the subject. He has floated such plans as drilling for oil in the contested South China Sea, building a Ferris Wheel love motel and attracting Disneyland to Kaohsiung (a city too small to qualify), along many other similarly unlikely plans. Coherence in policy proposals and knowledge of the job one is running for is important to a certain percentage of the electorate.

Han must also improve his city government team, Chao said, adding that Han must perform his mayoral duties well, especially as the typhoon season nears.

Chao is referencing the common perception, which he shares, that as mayor, Han has not been doing a good job. At best, the perception is he is absent; at worst, incompetent. This is why there is a recall campaign against him. Clearly the perception of being unable to handle the job of mayor will hinder hopes of expanding his electability as president.

While the KMT should assist Han in the process, the mayor must work hard and hold himself to a high standard, he said.

As a presidential candidate, Han must prepare for media scrutiny of every word and action, wisely handling any controversial issues that pop up, he said.

This is most likely in reference to both his frequent gaffes and his unsavory past. Though both issues have not dented his support with his base, it has hurt him with the broader public. He will need to work to overcome both.

Then the kicker:

To ensure that the KMT wins next year’s elections and to keep Han from being recalled, KMT Chairman Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) should advise Han to keep his fans under control, Chao said.

Han’s fans are loyal and passionate, but if they do not stop with their escapades, they might be alienated from the KMT and even become enemies of the party, which the KMT cannot afford, Chao added.

Chao is afraid of Han’s supporters, who have recently taken to threatening and attacking people both online and physically, including beating up a 71-year-old man. While having a passionate group of supporters is usually a good thing in politics, the fanatic and dangerous edge to some of his fans is frightening others off.

Without considerable changes and improvements, Han will have trouble breaking the 40% mark. While his supporters may be enough to carry him over the top in a complicated three or four-way race, is it looking considerably unlikely unless the combination of opponents favors him—for example candidates, such as Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), that draw significant support from voters who would otherwise choose Tsai. Even in polling with a lineup like this that favors him, he only sometimes comes out ahead.

The DPP has not begun to campaign against him yet in earnest. When they do, they are going to come out full guns blazing. It’s not going to be pretty, and it does not appear Han is ready for the challenge.

(Cover photo by Kaohsiung City Government)