



UNITED Nations data sources estimated the population of Bangladesh as 158.7 million approx. (UN, 2007) in 2007, and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS, 2008) estimated it as 144.5 million in July, 2008. According to UN sources, the present figure is more than 160 million (also used for population projection in this article).

Bangladesh has long been acknowledged as a success for family planning (UN, 2007). Yet, population growth has remained one of the prime focuses of national policy discourse and intellectual discussions. The recent government initiative to introduce "Single Child Policy" has been appreciated by most people.

Following the Chinese example, it is thought that the population can be controlled or decreased in the near future by adopting this policy. The announcement of "Single Child per Couple" policy and its implementation by 2015 is considered as an immediate solution to this problem. Considering the geometric population growth, there is a long way to go before the population declines in Bangladesh (see Figure 1).

According to the expectation of the "Single Child per Couple" policy, and considering the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) as 1.0 by 2015, the population will still be growing. At the same time, if the target is achieved by 2025, the situation will be worse, as projected by the upper curved line (see Figure 1). Even with the expectation of the policy of TFR=1.0 population will keep growing, and will not experience a decline before 2033.

Thus it is quite clear that, in the near future, the population will keep growing inspite of the "Single Child per Couple" policy.

According to the Bangladesh Labour Force Survey 2005-06, the number of unemployed persons above 15 years of age is 2.1 million. Considering the effectiveness of the current policy, and TFR= 1.0 by 2015, the total population in the age-group 15-50 years will be 110 million (approx.) in 2033.

As mentioned before, population will not decline before 2033, and a huge shift of age-group distribution is percievable by 2033 (see Figure 2). Thus, the employment situation may get worse. So far, government initiatives have been limited to providing general education and technical expertise for only a small portion of this population.

According to government sources, 45,000 people are being provided training facilities in 38 traning centres on 45 subjects, which is obviously a very small portion of the present unemployed population.

With growing educational status, a large portion of this age group (15-50) will be educated enough to take advantage of the skilled labour market. So far, our foreign exchange income has been dominated by un-skilled labour income. Countries like India and Philippines are taking advantage of skilled labour forces in their home countries and abroad through call-centres, nursing, etc. Very few initiatives have been taken in Bangladesh to facilitate skilled labour force marketing.

By 2050, a major shift of age-group is also perceivable, based on the success of the policy (see Figure 3). About 51 million people will be more than 50 years of age, which will result in huge demand for medical services, unemployment benefit or old-age benefits. Acute shortage in medical service facilities is already perceivable, and extra emphasis should be given in these sectors to meet the future demand.

From the above discussion, it can be concluded that the population of Bangladesh will be growing in near future in spite on the national policy of "Single Child per Couple." The national policy is appreciable in terms of long-run effect, but the government should be prepared to tackle the population growth, employment of above 15 years, and social services in near future.

Md. Manjur Morshed is a post-graduate student in Universidad Austral De Chile, Valdivia. E-mail: mmorshed05@yahoo.ca.