There may be some gallows humour to be had in the fact Venezuela now has two men “pretending” to be president, but neither of them actually governing this benighted country. However, the situation has never been so combustible since the late Hugo Chavez came to power almost exactly a decade ago on a programme of leftist nationalist populism, or Bolivarianism to use the correct local branding.

Since Mr Chavez died in 2013, his arbitrary policies have been pursued virtually unchanged by his successor (or one of them) Nicolas Maduro. It is Mr Maduro who is accused of fixing the elections last May for his second presidential term, with the allegations so serious that the opposition leader, Juan Guaido, has decided to swear himself in as president as well.

The military, not always friends of socialist South American regimes, has come out, in gleaming full-dress uniform, to pledge their allegiance to Mr Maduro. Against that alliance there is President Trump, and at least a section of the Venezuelan people, bitterly and violently divided about the future of their country.

For Mr Trump is pursuing a policy that has enjoyed mixed success in the past – the refusal to recognise an incumbent regime not to Washington’s tastes. After all, the United States refused to recognise Mao and the Communist Party of China as the legitimate government in Beijing from 1949 to 1978, with no apparent effect on the Maoists’ grip on power. More recently, and rather closer to Caracas, geographically and doctrinally, America kept up a campaign of hostility against Castro’s Cuba, again with the often perverse effect of legitimising his patriotism and allowing him to blame his nation’s misfortunes on Yankee sanctions.

The real question is: will Mr Trump’s diplomatic move to recognise Mr Guaido as the legitimate government of Venezuela be escalated into some kind of physical intervention?

This would be clumsy, foolish, and would probably provoke the incipient civil war that has been threatening to break out for many years, driven by a people grown desperate by the destruction of economic freedom, hope and opportunity.

One other proximate cause of such a turn of events might be tension with neighbouring Colombia, which has joined the US and Canada in snubbing Mr Maduro, much to the latter’s fury. Colombia has had to bear the brunt of the economic refugees fleeing Venezuela (and then on to Mexico and the US border), and relations between the two states are poor. No one would be surprised if the refugee crisis turned more violent.

Yet Venezuela needs no assistance from outsiders to sink into further chaos and violence. The risk of events spiralling out of control, as the UN predicts, is very real. It is difficult to see how events could unwind themselves into a peaceful resolution of the disputed elections; yet any intervention by foreigners, even under a UN-mandate, would merely spark fresh conflict with a military and police that may themselves form into factions, being torn every which way between loyalty to the country or the regime if US troops turn up. All the conditions for a confused civil war would then be amply fulfilled. Already some 20 or so demonstrators have been shot dead in the latest round of protests, and a further 350 arrested.

Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Show all 18 1 /18 Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Protesters clash with the Bolivarian National Police during a demonstration against the government of the Venezuela and president Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on 23 January 2019 EPA Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Demonstrators cheer as Venezuela's National Assembly head Juan Guaido declares himself the country's "acting president" at a rally in Caracas AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Opposition supporters take part in a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Opposition supporters take part in a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Juan Guaido, head of Venezuela's opposition-run congress, declares himself interim president of the nation until elections can be held during a rally in Caracas demanding leader Nicolas Maduro's resignation AP Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Opposition supporters carry letters to form the word "Democracy" while taking part in a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Police watch over marching anti-government protesters in Caracas EPA Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government A vehicle is overturned as opposition demonstrators block a road during a protest against the Venezuelan government AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government A National Police officer fires rubber bullets during a protest against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government A demonstrator throws back a gas canister while clashing with security forces during a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Security forces look on after clashing with opposition supporters participating in a rally against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Demonstrators during a protest against the government of Nicolas Maduro at Plaza Altamira in Caracas Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Demonstrators during a protest against the government of Nicolas Maduro at Plaza Altamira in Caracas Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government epa07313731 Opponents of Chavism demonstrate against the Government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, 23 January 2019. Chavists and opponents are again demonstrating in the streets of the country to support or question the legitimacy of the head of state, which the Parliament and a large part of the international community do not recognize. EPA/CRISTIAN HERNANDEZ CRISTIAN HERNANDEZ EPA Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Riot police clash with opposition demonstrators during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro on the anniversary of the 1958 uprising that overthrew the military dictatorship, in Caracas on January 23, 2019. - Venezuela's National Assembly head Juan Guaido declared himself the country's "acting president" on Wednesday during a mass opposition rally against leader Nicolas Maduro. (Photo by YURI CORTEZ / AFP)YURI CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images YURI CORTEZ AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government The remains of a statue of Venezuela's late President Hugo Chavez is seen hanging from a pedestrian bridge after it was destroyed in San Felix, Venezuela REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Riot police on motorcycles clash with opposition demonstrators during protests in Caracas AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Supporters celebrate Juan Guaido declaration that he is Venezuelan president EPA

The economic crisis – mass unemployment, criminally mismanaged oil resources, hyperinflation – has mutated into a political crisis and now a humanitarian one. The temptation to “rescue” Venezuela by the international community is substantial. But, as with so many more such moves in recent decades, there is every chance that it would make things worse.