Early-state Democrats are evenly divided over whether Hillary Clinton’s campaign should be worried about recent polls showing her highest unfavorability ratings in years.

Exactly 50 percent say there’s cause for concern while the other 50 percent saw no reason for alarm.


That’s the assessment of this week’s survey of the POLITICO Caucus — a bipartisan group of influential activists, operatives and elected officials in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“Twenty-plus Republicans beating her up, Elizabeth Warren talking about the working man issues that terrify her, a couple of candidates like Bernie [Sanders] and Martin [O’Malley] to fill in her policy blanks and a media that feels stiffed by her lack of access, so all we can focus on is emails and the notorious Clinton Foundation and newly acquired wealth that suggests, at a minimum, the appearance of impropriety,” one Granite State Democrat said, offering an explanation for her sinking favorability. “Frankly if Hillary could step back at look at herself she would rate herself unfavorably as well.”

That remark comes during a week in which two major national polls delivered troubling results, including a CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday that showed Clinton with her highest unfavorability ratings of the past 14 years. A separate poll released Tuesday by The Washington Post and ABC News found that Clinton’s favorability was just 45 percent — her lowest in that survey since April 2008, when she was in the middle of a nomination battle with Barack Obama.

Caucus participants largely chalked those numbers up to a spate of unflattering stories about donations made to the Clinton Foundation, as well as scrutiny of Clinton’s email practices when she was at the State Department. Some blamed the media — the “drumbeat” of negative headlines was a common explanation for her slide in popularity. But others argued that she should engage more with the press about those subjects.

“She is not proactively addressing the issues of concern to Americans,” said an Iowa Democrat who, like everyone in the POLITICO Caucus, was granted anonymity in order to speak freely. “Her refusal to take questions is taking a toll. These polls indicate that she needs to take a more proactive role. Not that she needs to be completely responsive to the media, but she can’t ignore them.”

“Emails, Clinton Foundation, etc,” one New Hampshire Democrat responded. “She is taking the initial barrage from the punditocracy trying to frame the narrative of the race — which is largely about process and character, not very much about issues — and because she is not taking the bait she’s in a little bit of a roper-doper strategy right now. I think she needs to go on offense.”

But many Democrats also attributed falling poll numbers to the fact that she is now a partisan candidate for political office, rather than secretary of state, and noted that she still outpaces the Republican candidates in polls. And several who responded that the Clinton campaign should be concerned by those surveys said the information should be used only to make minor adjustments.

“Any candidate facing waves of partisan attacks for weeks on end sees the impact in their numbers, but the list of folks capable of sustaining this kind of a barrage and still looking this good is very small,” said a Granite Stater.

Another New Hampshire Democrat, who believes the Clinton campaign should be concerned about the polls, explained, “Hillary Clinton generates extremely strong passions, both positive and negative. She needs to be completely candid and transparent about the [Clinton] Foundation’s dealings and accomplishments and cannot engage in either spin or obfuscation. As long as she is straight, truthful and credible, she will be fine.”

Despite the rising negative ratings and polling suggesting high numbers of voters question her trustworthiness, three-quarters of early-state Democrats say Clinton is generating sufficient excitement about her presidential bid — especially among women.

“Regular people, particularly women of all age groups are beyond excited about this candidacy,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.

“Sufficient is the right choice of words,” said another New Hampshire Democrat. “Hillary is, and remains, solid in the eyes of Democrats.”

Some respondents, however, wondered whether there’s enough energy and enthusiasm for the long haul.

“There is almost “forced” excitement from establishment types trying to sell the Clinton brand as the perfect standard bearer for rank and file Democrats,” said one New Hampshire Democrat. “In New Hampshire, there does not appear to be a barrage of new Clinton supporters; rather, just the usual Clinton supporters.”

An Iowa Democrat cautioned, “Sufficient to win a primary yes, a general election right now — we aren’t there.”

On the Republican side, unsurprisingly, 94 percent of insiders said her campaign should be concerned by the polls, and 91 percent said they’re not seeing much enthusiasm about her candidacy. Several insiders likened Clinton to former Sen. Bob Dole, who won the 1996 GOP nomination but lost to Bill Clinton.

“Hillary Clinton is this cycle’s version of Bob Dole. It’s her turn but holy sh**!” one Granite State Republican said.

Here are three other takeaways from this week’s POLITICO Caucus:

Expectations are high for Clinton’s June 13 announcement rally

Hillary Clinton has been a candidate since April, but she will officially kick off her race on June 13 at a rally in New York. That’s a good time for her to spell out exactly why she’s running, Democratic insiders say — it’s a way to show skeptical voters that she’s pursuing the White House because of an issue set or philosophy, rather than out of a sense that she’s inevitable or entitled.

A New Hampshire Democrat suggested Clinton answer these questions. “Why is she the best person out of 320 million people to be President? Where’s the passion? And what can you say that will truly inspire non-base voters?”

“She needs consistency of effort in transferring attention from herself to the issues on which she is running,” an Iowa Democrat said. “June 13th plays an important role in putting the attention on her priority issues.”

A New Hampshire Democrat added that Clinton should try to explain that the campaign is bigger than she is, and bigger than the Clinton brand: “That this campaign isn’t about her and it isn’t about Washington, that it’s about Manchester and Davenport and other communities and the issues that matter there — a quality education for your kids, safe neighborhoods, good roads and bridges, confronting the drug epidemic, lowering the costs of healthcare, childcare, student loans and energy prices. Don’t make this campaign about the Clintons, but about families all across the country who are just trying to do the right thing everyday.”

Other non-Democrats — Republicans and a handful of nonpartisan respondents — indulged in some wishful thinking.

Clinton should say “I am not a crook,” suggested at least two insiders.

“I have decided to spend more time with my family and thus I am resetting my priorities and going to devote my life to the Clinton Foundation,” deadpanned a New Hampshire Republican.

As Warren fades, Sanders rises

Supporters of Sen. Elizabeth Warren are increasingly taking her at her word that she won’t run for president — which makes room on the left for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Fully 100 percent of Iowa Democrats, and 72 percent of New Hampshire Democrats, see Sanders as the heir to Warren’s support, rather than former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley or former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee.

“The lane is on the left,” an Iowa Democrat said. “There’s not enough room for Left of Hillary but Right of Bernie. Why settle for a mainstream liberal when you can have a lefty dream candidate?”

“Bernie is taking it to the streets. He’s calling for political revolution. While he is not the picture of change one might imagine, he has the ability to reprise the role of Howard Dean in 2004 in the Democratic primary,” an Iowa Republican said.

A New Hampshire Republican, questioning enthusiasm for Clinton, said, “Hundreds of people are turning out for a socialist from Vermont!”

But an Iowa Democrat noted, “Sanders is the flavor of the month in [Iowa]. He has connected with the [Dennis] Kucinich and Dean supporters from years ago. The big question is whether they are curious or committed.”

Carly Fiorina is on fire — for now

One hundred percent of New Hampshire Republicans and about 80 percent of Iowa Republicans say GOP candidate Carly Fiorina is gaining traction.

“People love Carly when they see her. Momentum in Iowa is real,” a Hawkeye State Republican said.

A New Hampshire Democrat added a word of support: “She is different from all the other candidates in the Republican field, and for more than her gender. Her business background, her communication style, her willingness to talk like a general election candidate right now, her never holding office, and her personal story, are all interesting. If she is not one of the 10 people on that debate stage, the process is not working.”

An Iowa Republican noted that Fiorina’s status as the GOP field’s most frequent critic of Hillary Clinton is going a long way for her candidacy.

“Fiorina has been wowing crowds and exceeding expectations wherever she goes in Iowa,” the insider said. “It’s one part love for the Clinton zingers, one part excitement in a charismatic Republican woman, and one part interest in the unknown, but she is making headway in Iowa in a real way.”

But, a New Hampshire Republican said of the former Hewlett Packard head, “she’s had a free ride so far attacking Hillary, which is easy, with no critical review of her record or policies. That will change.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams