How do you pick a game-changing play in a 23-0 loss? Let me tell you right now, it is not easy. But I went for it anyway and I feel pretty good about my decision. I feel terrible about the play itself, but my decision making is unparalleled. I’ve often said that.

Packers faced 4th and 6 at the Ravens 40 yard down, down 13-0 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Less-than-ideal, but the game was far from over. Given their struggle to move the ball consistently at this point, I’m fully in favor of going for it in this situation.

The Packers call a moving pocket, so Brett Hundley [7] rolls to his right. I’ve talked about this in the past but I’ll bring it up again here: something like this can help a young quarterback quite a bit. By rolling to one side of the field, you can help to buy yourself a little more time and you also cut the field in half. That doesn’t sound great, but it makes for an easier read. Instead of having to read the entire field, Hundley only has to read the right side.

As you would imagine, all the routes take place on the right side of the field. Jordy Nelson [87] and Randall Cobb [18] are aligned on that side. Nelson runs a skinny post from the outside while Cobb runs a slithering out route underneath Nelson. Davante Adams [17] is running a crossing route from the left side. Everyone else stays back to block.

The routes of Nelson and Cobb are meant to create a natural rub against man coverage, but the Ravens are in Cover 2 Zone Under and they switch it perfectly. Cobb has two men under his route, so that’s a bust.

Adams’ crossing route draws his defender over, and it also catches the eye of Tony Jefferson [23], the deep safety to that side. Jefferson doesn’t come flying in on Adams, but he flattens his coverage and is obviously keeping an eye on him. Adams looks as though he’s open, but Hundley can’t do much with it. Anthony Levine [41] is camped out in the middle and Hundley would have to throw across his body.

So that leaves Nelson. Before I get to him, let me bring up the psychology of playcalling. There are a lot of things that go into a good playcall. One of those things is playing off what you think the opponent will do. The Packers are in 4th and 6. The Ravens know this. Once Hundley shows he’s going to be passing, the Ravens are protecting the sticks. The assumption is that the Packers will try to get the first down but won’t take a chance with more.

That dictates the movement of Eric Weddle [32]. He’s the deep safety on the offensive right. Once again, there are two routes over there: Nelson on the skinny post and Cobb on the out. He sees Nelson running up the post, but CJ Mosley [57] has underneath coverage. If you assume the Packers are trying to pick up the first down, you’re looking at a curl route from Nelson and Mosley is all over that. So Weddle turns his attention to Cobb, who seems to be the more likely target for the rolling Hundley.

Of course, Weddle could just as easily be thinking that Jefferson is going to be picking up Nelson. This is either a case of miscommunication or Weddle assuming he knows what Nelson is doing. Either way, it doesn’t kill him. With Jefferson leveling out to take Adams and Weddle stepping to the outside to take Cobb, Nelson splits the safeties. That leaves Nelson running up the seam with Mosley desperately trying to catch up.

By the time Nelson breaks free, Hundley is under pressure. But Hundley has time to set up and throw before Nelson breaks open. It’s something I’ve talked about with Hundley quite a bit, and it holds true here. If Hundley anticipates Nelson getting open, he can throw this before the pressure hits home.

Here are the keys at play here:

1. Ravens drop their two deep safeties into wide zones. Looking at Cover 2.

2. Lots of faces looking back at me instead of the backs of jerseys. Looking at Cover 2 Zone Under.

3. Quick check to Cobb. Rub didn’t work.

4. What are safeties doing? Jefferson leveling out and Weddle looking outside.

5. Check to Nelson. Anyone unexpectedly slide over the top?

As soon as you see what the safeties are doing, chuck the ball to Nelson. By the time the ball is on its way down, he will have cleared the deepest defender and will be staring at the end zone.

Instead, Hundley hesitates. He misses his window and gets sacked. Instead of taking a chance, he takes a sack on 4th down.

If Nelson catches this, it could be a touchdown. Suddenly the Packers are down 13-7 and their quarterback just made a big throw. There’s no telling what happens from here.

Instead, Hundley gets sacked and the Packers end up being held scoreless. If the Packers are going to be better, Hundley needs to improve his anticipation.

Album listened to: Riz Ortolani – Cannibal Holocaust Score