Bernie Sanders will win South Carolina primary, George Washington University school says

UPDATE: Joe Biden has won decisively in SC. Here's what i means for the 2020 Democratic nomination

Despite polls that have shown former Vice President Joe Biden holding a commanding lead in the Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is expected to win by the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management.

LIVE UPDATES: South Carolina primary coverage from polling sites across the state

To make their latest projection, according to a press release, GSPM researchers used two election-prediction models. Their "momentum" and "original" model each consider three factors: Twitter mentions, cash on hand and endorsements.

According to the press release, the amount of Twitter mentions reflects the attention a candidate is garnering among the wider electorate as well as the effect important opinion leaders have on the online political discussion. Cash on hand quantifies the financial position of a candidate and demonstrates the level of donor commitment. The number of endorsements is a relative indication of a candidate’s strength within the party.

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The momentum model, which also takes into account the results from the Nevada caucuses last Saturday, found that Sanders will win South Carolina handily, with 28.4% of the vote share. Biden is projected to finish in second place with 17.5% of the vote.

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with 12.9%, and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, with 11.6%, are the only other candidates in double digits in the momentum model.

The original model suggests a far tighter race. While Sanders remains at the head of the pack, he is projected to garner only 19.7% of the vote while Biden finishes with 15.1%, Warren with 12.3% and Buttigieg with 11.2%.

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“There is more uncertainty in the predictions made by the momentum model given how South Carolina often diverges from earlier contests,” Meagan O’Neill, GW’s lead research scientist for the project, said in the press release. “The second basic model, without accounting for momentum, demonstrates a closer race based on fundamental factors alone.”

Earlier this week, Clemson University released results of its Palmetto Poll showing Biden with a healthy lead. The former vice president received support from 35% of the poll's respondents. Tom Steyer was a distant second with 17%, and Sanders was third with 13%.

As of Friday, an average of recent polling data compiled by RealClear Politics showed Biden leading at 34.3%, with Sanders at 22.3% and Steyer at 13.7%.

Follow Kirk Brown in Twitter @KirkBrown_AIM