Ohio State NFL Draft

Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas and Tyvis Powell helped Ohio State win a National Championship, but what happens to college teams when they lose double-digit draft classes?

(Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer)

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohio State's party starts Thursday night in Chicago. Urban Meyer will bring the deep dish.

The Buckeyes should see anywhere from four to seven players selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. In total, at least 14 Ohio State football players should be drafted over the three days from Thursday to Saturday.

Maybe someone like a Chase Farris could sneak in and make it 15.

Better make it two pizzas.

This will be a celebration of all things Ohio State. There isn't another program in the country looking at this kind of potential draft haul. Meyer will be in Chicago, along with some assistants and the five players who have been invited. Outside of that auditorium, Buckeyes fans around the country will revel in something that should be reveled in.

Then reality will set back in on Monday in Columbus.

What happens to teams the year after they lose double-digit draft classes? Ohio State is about to find out.

The Buckeyes are losing nine early entrants as part of this draft class. That's what makes it special. But there are a few players in that group Meyer has admitted he wasn't expecting to lose.

That's the difference between coming back strong after losing a large draft class, and going through a massive makeover.

"We're not going to change our standards, and that was a message all week to our players," Meyer said after the spring game. "We certainly don't lower our standards just because a player moves on. That's not what this place is all about."

Meyer got the spring game he wanted. Young players who need to step up showed well in front of 100,000 fans in an April scrimmage. But that really has no bearing on what happens this fall.

The Buckeyes have six starters back, three on each side, and have to find a way to meet Meyer's high expectations because he'll accept nothing less than what Ohio State has been the last three years -- a team that competes for championships.

So what happens to teams that lose double-digit draft classes? There is some good news in the numbers.

Since 2000, there have been 10 instances of a school losing at least 10 players to the NFL Draft. Ohio State has had the most with 14 in 2004. Louisville (2015), USC (2008) and Tennessee (2002) each lost 10. Six teams have lost 11 players. You can see the full list below.

In the season before losing the big draft class, those teams went a combined 115-16 (.878). In the season following the big draft class, those teams went a combined 100-29 (.775).

That's not the precipitous drop-off some would expect. Miami went to the BCS National Championship after losing 11 players in the 2002 NFL Draft, and Florida State won a national title after losing 11 players in the 2013 draft.

None of the teams with the last 10 double-digit draft classes finished worse than 8-5 the following year. Five of those teams won at least 10 games after losing the big draft class. So it's certainly possible for Ohio State to reload rather than rebuild.

The difference between losing 11 players and losing 14 probably looks miniscule on paper, but it's huge. These teams that have had success after losing large draft classes did so because they still had a decent number of key pieces come back.

Miami lost 11 players to the draft in 2002, but had 10 players left over who were selected in the first round in either 2003 or 2004. Florida State lost 11 starters in 2013, but returned its starting offensive line, had Devonta Freeman at running back and added a guy named Jameis Winston.

When it comes to the last 10 double-digit draft classes, the best team to compare this Buckeyes team to is its predecessor that lost 14 players in the 2004 draft.

That team went from 11-2, a No. 4 finish and a Fiesta Bowl win in 2003 (sound familiar?) to an 8-4 record the following year.

That's what this Ohio State team is trying to avoid once the party is over.

"There is a gap there a little bit, whenever you lose nine juniors, there is a gap," Meyer said. "It's like missing a recruiting class. When you lose that many players, the most I think we lost was six one year. That's six premiere players you're losing, so you get that gap and someone's gotta -- and it's up to the staff to get there -- because there is a lot of talent. Just gotta push 'em up a year."

THE LAST 10 DOUBLE-DIGIT DRAFT CLASSES

2015 Louisville (Lost 10 players)

* Year before: 9-4, finished ranked No. 24.

* Year after: 8-5

2015 Florida State (Lost 11 players)

* Year before: 13-1, finished ranked No. 5, lost in College Football Playoff semifinals

* Year after: 10-3, lost in the Peach Bowl

2013 Florida State (Lost 11 players)

* Year before: 12-2, finished ranked No. 10, won the Orange Bowl

* Year after: 14-0, won the BCS National Championship

2009 USC (Lost 11 players)

* Year before: 12-1, finished ranked No. 2, won the Rose Bowl

* Year after: 9-4, finished ranked No. 22

2008 USC (Lost 10 players)

* Year before: 11-2, finished ranked No. 2, won the Rose Bowl

* Year after: 12-1, finished ranked No. 2, won the Rose Bowl

2006 USC (Lost 11 players)

* Year before: 12-1, finished ranked No. 2, lost BCS National Championship

* Year after: 11-2, finished ranked No. 4, won the Rose Bowl

2005 Oklahoma (Lost 11 players)

* Year before: 12-1, finished ranked No. 3, lost BCS National Championship

* Year after: 8-4

2004 Ohio State (Lost 14 players)

* Year before: 11-2, finished ranked No. 4, won the Fiesta Bowl

* Year after: 8-4, finished ranked No. 20

2002 Miami (Lost 11 players)

* Year before: 12-0, won the BCS National Championship

* Year after: 12-1, lost the BCS National Championship

2002 Tennessee (Lost 10 players)

* Year before: 11-2, finished ranked No. 4, won the Citrus Bowl

* Year after: 8-5