The timing of this extension to Bobby Ryan from the Senators was very smart. That's the first thing to keep in mind about it.

They're essentially buying low on him for the second time in as many seasons. His 23-25-48 was the worst basic stat line — both overall and in terms of goals, assists, and points per game — he's had in a full season since he became a full-time NHLer in 2008-09. Merely getting 23 goals and 48 points from him is uncharacteristic to say the least, following four straight full seasons of 30-plus and at least 57 points in Anaheim.

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They traded for him when he only put up 11-19-30 in 46 post-lockout, which was disappointing across the board. Despite the long-percolating rumors of discontentment on both sides when he was with the Ducks, he likely wouldn't have even been available if he could have kept things in line with his career averages instead of dropping off a cliff harder than Wile E. Coyote. That they got him for Jakob Silfverberg and Stefan Noesen — good prospects but certainly not in Ryan's category at their respective absolute ceilings — plus the Sens' first-round pick in this past draft (No. 10 overall, used on Nick Ritchie) wasn't bad. Guys you can count on being regular 30-goal guys are very rare in this league, so again, even the availability was shocking.

Moreover, the fact that Ryan underperformed in terms of production last season (along with just about his entire team, to be fair) as well allowed them to lock him in at seven years and just $7.25 million per. Some people were initially galled by the price point, but for the most part people accepted this as a reasonable contract. A few observers speculated he might not have gotten much more than that on the open market if he had gone unrestricted this summer, but with the cap going up and the potential for more robust play in an important contract year, it wouldn't have been outlandish to see him grab $8 million from some team desperate for a top-line wing.

But the point is that Ryan got $7.25 million per, starting in 2015-16, and it's important to set up comparables in that range.

Let's assume that any forward whose contract starts with the number 7 and a comma, then, is roughly in that range. Once you get up above $8 million, you start to see names like Giroux, Kessel, and Getzlaf: Truly elite players. Once you get below $7 million, you see mostly aging stars, undervalued play drivers who don't put up huge boxcar numbers, emerging but tantalizing talents, and middle-aged guys who actually deserve that money (Joe Thornton and Henrik Zetterberg; Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron; Taylor Hall and Matt Duchene; Thomas Vanek and Nicklas Backstrom, respectively).

At this point, the 2015-16 season looks to have 10 guys who will make between $7 million and $7.8 million, and here they are:

Player (Age)/Team AAV

(in millions)

Started

Ending

Rick Nash (30), CBJ/NYR

$7.80

2010-11

2017-18

Zach Parise (30), MIN

$7.54

2012-13

2024-25

Steven Stamkos (24), TBL

$7.50

2011-12

2015-16

Pavel Datsyuk (36), DET

$7.50

2014-15

2016-17

Bobby Ryan (27), OTT

$7.25

2015-16

2021-22

David Krejci (28), BOS

$7.25

2015-16

2020-21

Daniel Sedin (34), VAN

$7.00

2014-15

2017-18

Henrik Sedin (34), VAN

$7.00

2014-15

2017-18

Paul Stastny (28), STL

$7.00

2014-15

2017-18

Alex Semin (30), CAR

$7.00

2013-14

2017-18

It's interesting to note that of those 10 deals, only two — Stastny's and Parise's — were signed on the open free agent market (in fact, they're the only two making north of $7 million who didn't play for the teams that signed them prior to the big-money deals). That will usually serve to have some sort of depressive effect on their money per annum, so one must assume that Ryan took a bit of a discount here, just like everyone else did.

Now we have to consider the play of these 10 players over the last few seasons to accurately assess their value. For our purposes, let's call it five years. And let's also only look at 5-on-5 play, which as we all know is the fairest test of player quality because things get wonky when you mix in special teams.

When looking purely at points per 60 minutes played at even strength, Ryan finishes seventh out of 10, at 2.18 per. That's just one basis point below Krejci (2.19) and four below Datsyuk (2.22). The guys behind him are Nash, Parise, and Stastny, in that order. However, all three of guys behind him played tougher competition, and Datsyuk played the hardest of all of them. Of the 10, though, only Stastny got less favorable zone starts. All but Nash and maybe Krejci would probably be considered better defensively, generating beneficial possession numbers through offensive quality, and not two-way play.

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