By Daniel “Tafokints” Lee

If you asked me six months ago who would win the Super Smash Bros. Melee crown at Evo 2016, I would answer “Armada” before you finished the sentence.

Ask me now and I’m not so sure.

I suppose Adam “Armada” Lindgren is still my choice, but how far behind are Juan “Hungrbox” Debiedma, Joseph “Mango” Marquez, and William “Leffen” Hjelte? The uncertainty makes my analytical head go haywire, but it creates for an exciting summer of Melee.

These four contenders have demonstrated an impressive ability to win key events. Armada and Hungrybox dominated early 2016 and are still the most consistent players. Mango has won a few events here and there, but seems to constantly finish Top 2. A resurgent Leffen won Get On My Level 2016 in May.

While each of these stars has seen some high notes, they all have weaknesses. How do they adjust going into the 2016 summer of Smash?

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Armada

Armada started off the year strong, but has fallen off in recent events. He finished in a disappointing fifth place at GOML, and while normally we could write off a below-average performance as a fluke, there are some worrying trends developing.

Armada is incredibly consistent at defeating the sub-Top 6 players, but now he deals with a new set of struggles in dual-maining. He cultivated a Fox to defeat Hungrybox’s Jigglypuff and other top level Fox players who have figured out his Peach. It worked: Armada’s Fox won him several major events over the likes of Hungrybox and has given him a secondary reliable option to compete with players like Leffen.

However, the decision has backfired in some aspects. Armada now has to devote his time to playing two different characters at a very high level. At Battle of the Five Gods, Armada performed well with his Peach, but his Fox underperformed when he needed it most because his Fox never had the opportunity to warm up. In winners, Hungrybox swept the set 3-0 and the woes carried over into losers, where Armada lost the first two matches in the Fox ditto against Mango. After falling behind 0-2, Armada switched to Peach, but it was too little too late as he finished an overall third place; not bad for everyone else, but disappointing for a player of his caliber.

To be fair, Leffen and Mango are becoming much more competent against both of Armada’s characters. Although Armada’s Fox can punish well, Leffen’s Fox seems to be on another level in both the neutral and punish games. Historically, Mango has struggled with Armada’s Peach, but he looked very confident in the matchup and even 3-stocked Armada’s Peach at GOML.

On one hand, we can say that Armada was having a bad day, but credit needs to be given to his improving rivals. How does Armada deal with this moving forward? What’s his game plan against Leffen? Does he refine his Fox matchup in the hope that he surpasses Leffen in the ditto? What does Armada do against Mango in the future? Does he develop his Fox or continue with his Peach? He’ll need to figure out something soon.

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Hungrybox

Much has been said about Hungrybox’s improvements in 2016. He began the year tearing off four major tournament victories, taking his steady, consistent play to new heights. In the words of Leffen, “Hungrybox is no longer a stepping stone to a final boss. He is a final boss.”

But while his first four months of 2016 looked amazing, he is now starting to show some holes in his play, specifically in the Fox matchup.

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