Former shadow treasurer says Labor must not ‘shrink into a ball’ after its defeat

Labor needs to fire up on behalf of working people to punch through the “pandemic of populism” locking progressive parties out of government, and it needs to pitch an “Australian new deal” grounded in the Hawke/Keating principles of economic reform with a social dividend, according to Chris Bowen.

As Labor braces itself for the release of the tightly held campaign review on Thursday, Bowen, the former shadow treasurer and now health spokesman, will make his first substantial public intervention since the May election loss, delivering his rationale for why Labor lost at the inaugural Keating lecture in western Sydney.

The official campaign post-mortem, spearheaded by Jay Weatherill and Craig Emerson, meanwhile, will outline the contribution of leadership, campaign strategy and policy to the defeat in May. The report handed to Labor’s national executive is expected to highlight Bill Shorten’s unpopularity, look at the impact of Clive Palmer’s unprecedented advertising spend, as well as highlight problems with the campaign and the detailed policy platform.

As Labor absorbs the official post-mortem, Bowen will declare on Thursday evening that Labor must not “shrink into a ball” as a consequence of the election defeat.

According to a copy of his speech, circulated ahead of Thursday night’s lecture, Bowen will argue the principal reason for the defeat was a failure to connect with Labor’s traditional constituency, or link the party’s progressive program with Labor’s long-term mission to improve the lot of working people.

Bowen will point out that low-income voters supported Donald Trump and the Brexit vote, and the Tories in the UK in 2017 lifted their share of the working class vote from 32% to 44% “because people of lower socioeconomic status have lost faith with progressive politics to deliver for them, to deal with their real and burning grievances about growing inequality, risky job security and underemployment”.

With populism on the march, rather than presenting as bloodless technocrats, Bowen will say Labor needs to be indignant on behalf of working people, “to be angry on behalf of the people we represent” and to validate their anger about the disadvantages they face – be it unemployment, or poverty, or lower life expectancy, or chronic illness.

He will argue if Labor can’t convince voters it can boost economic growth, the next election is already lost, and he points out that the controversial revenue measures he proposed as shadow treasurer were, in part, “to pay for new spending”. While he was proud of big spending measures, like the $2.3bn pensioner dental plan, Bowen suggests more fiscal discipline will be needed in the coming term of parliament.

Bowen says Labor needs to forge a new compact with voters centred around economic reform with a social dividend, as Keating and Hawke did in the 1980s and 1990s. At the centre will be tackling contemporary challenges like climate change or the impact of technology, while using the power of government “to invest in every Australian to help them navigate this changing world”.

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Bowen will suggest with climate change, rather than using terminology like a “just transition” for coal workers, Labor explore the Green New Deal, pursued by some Democrats in the United States, which is a stimulus package that aims to address both climate change and economic inequality – an idea that has been floated post-election by fellow rightwinger Tony Burke.

Rather than redistribution, which was implicit in a number of policies Bowen presided over as shadow treasurer, he suggests Labor consider pre-distribution, which is an approach of direct intervention in the labour market to reduce income inequality, rather than redistribution, where wealth is transferred from people who have it to people who don’t.

Like fellow rightwinger Claire O’Neil, Bowen will argue that Labor cannot avoid identity politics, because Scott Morrison has “made an art form of framing proposals and attacks through a cultural prism”.

He says Morrison peeled blue-collar votes from Labor very effectively in May by playing identity politics “in a hardball fashion”.

Bowen argues people actually impacted by Labor’s proposed revenue measures, higher income earners, actually swung to the ALP in May but working class voters bled to protest candidates or the Coalition because voters thought Labor didn’t care about their economic security.

Bowen will say Labor in recent times has framed its policy offering through an economic prism, but the Coalition is playing on different turf. He argues the Liberals under Morrison “excel” in appealing to the values of identity, and the pitch is resonant.

If Labor is to peel back blue-collar votes from Morrison in the coming term, it needs to “counter this flagrant identity politics … with a full-throated exposition of our values” – being clear with hardworking traditional Labor supporters that “we are for them, we were formed to improve their lives, and we haven’t forgotten our mission”.

Labor needs to “explain clearly and passionately that cutting off trade or less immigration” isn’t an answer to the anxiety felt by blue-collar workers in Australia and outline an alternative policy proposition.

Bowen says there are dangers for Labor in being drawn into the progressive activist prism that is amplified by social media, noting “well intentioned hashtag campaigns that make social media activists feel good about their morality can make hard working Australians feel alienated and exposed”.