After some serious unskewing, a new poll of Vancouver and Washington drivers reveals a big problem with the $3.5 billion funding plan for the Columbia River Crossing: Most say they will steer clear of Interstate 5 tolls.

Let's say the controversial interstate span is built. Some 52 percent of Portland drivers and a whopping 77 percent of Clark County drivers would likely use the I-205 Glenn Jackson Bridge rather than pay tolls, according to poll results released by Seattle-based PEMCO Insurance.

Of course, for whatever reason, that's not how PEMCO is spinning the survey results.

The company's PR firm sent out a sanguine release titled, "One in three drivers undeterred by Columbia River Crossing tolls. "

PEMCO's poll summary starts by noting 33 percent of the region's drivers say they won't change their commuting behaviors, including opting for different route, carpooling, moving residence or riding the bus more often to avoid paying tolls to cross the CRC.

I sent PEMCO spokesman Nick Stubberfield of Firmini + Associates a quick email to clarify things: "So, two-thirds of drivers would change their habits, right?"

Stubberfield's response: "It is fair to say that two-thirds would change their habits, and those two-thirds would change their habits in a variety of ways."

So, in other words, a solid majority of Portland Vancouver drivers would probably be toll dodgers. By the way, it's unknown how much the crossing toll would be.

Ironically, the funding plan to replace the two aging Interstate Bridge spans across the Columbia is counting on tolling for at least one-third of funding.

The

states and the federal government would pay for the rest. In addition to interchange improvements and a separated bike and pedestrian route, the project calls for MAX light rail into Vancouver,

.

About 41 percent of Portland respondents said that even with a toll, they would use the CRC just as often. By contrast, 65 percent of Clark County drivers "who currently use the I-5 bridge more often than their Portland neighbors" say they'll use the crossing less often with tolls.

According to the poll, tolls won't necessarily make commuters more thoughtful about the environment or fighting congestion either. Only 12 percent said they would consider carpooling and 9 percent said they would take the bus.

PEMCO polled only 400 Portland metro residents and 52 in Clark County, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points in the Portland area and plus or minus 13.9 percent for Clark County. Not exactly a solid sample.

Still, the survey's results aren't exactly a bright spot for a project that has had its funding plan and traffic-prediction models pulled apart by critics in recent months.

PEMCO spokesman said Jon Osterberg the insurance company wonders if shifting congestion patterns would eventually change the minds of respondents who say they would try to avoid the tolls.

"With so many drivers saying they'll divert their route, it's likely that I-205 would become congested," Osterberg said. "Perhaps more drivers will choose convenience over savings and end up joining the 33 percent who plan to stay their course despite the toll. We'll continue to track opinions as the project continues."

--