I wanted to give a breakdown of what the rest of the season looks like for Denver. This final stretch is going to be difficult and if the Nuggets focus and continue winning, I think it will be great for the development of our young guys. I'm going to do a quick, yet thorough, analysis of the Nuggets remaining schedule as well as an analysis of the Western Conference playoff seeding. Then, I’ll give my prediction on how I think the West will play out.

Nuggets Schedule Quick Hits

The Denver Nuggets have 24 games remaining, 11 Home (H) and 13 Away (A).

17 of those games (9H, 8A) are against playoff teams or teams fighting for the playoffs (within 2 games of the 8-seed).

7 games (4H, 3A) are against teams they are fighting for playoff seeding in the West (Spurs, Clippers (x2), Thunder, Wolves (x2), Blazers).

Their last 10 games (4H, 6A) are all against playoff teams (well, one against Clippers).

Their longest homestand for the remainder of the season is 3 games, but they have 3 of them. Their longest road trip is 7 games (longest of the season).

They have 3 more back-to-backs, of which, the 2nd games are against the Cavs twice and the Raptors once.

The Nuggets only have one opponent that will be playing them on the 2nd night of back-to-back for the rest of the season (@OKC, previous night OKC @SA).

The biggest break they have for the rest of the season is 2 days (3 times). Notable because they will be trying to work Millsap back in and practices would help.

Nuggets Seeding Notes

The Nuggets are in play for any seed from the 3rd to the 10th seed. They are 2.5 games back of the 3rd seed and 2 games up on the 10th seed.

The Nuggets have 9 potential first round opponents (HOU, GS, SA, MIN, OKC, POR, NOP, LAC, UTA)

Season series records for potential tie-breakers

LAC (0-1) 2 remain

MN (0-2) 2 remain

NOP (2-1) 1 remains

OKC (2-1) 1 remains

POR (2-1) 1 remains

SA (1-2) 1 remains

UT (2-2) 0 remain

GS (2-2) 0 remain (I just added this one because it makes me happy)

The Nuggets have neither secured or lost tie-breakers with any teams yet. Those remaining 7 games against these teams are VERY important. As if you didn’t already know that.

The Nuggets little too early to be paying attention to this magic number is 21.

The strength of schedule of the remaining games for each team fighting for seeding is as follows (1 hardest, 30 easiest):

SA(1), LAC (5), POR (6), OKC (7), NOP (8), DEN (10), MN (14), UT (22)

All the teams have pretty tough schedules, except Utah. Also, Minnesota’s is middling.

Extras – Fivethirtyeight.com currently has the Nuggets as 72% to make the playoffs (MIN, UTA, OKC, SA are higher)

Players to return – Nuggets (Millsap), Spurs (Leonard?), Jazz (Exum), Pelicans (Solomon Hill)

My Prediction

Nuggets end up as the 7th seed and face Houston (I’m a pessimist). Houston has the top spot right now, and Golden State has been playing lackadaisical and bored basketball recently. But, the Warriors have an easy remaining schedule and I think they are about to come back from the break ready to go, with the goal of getting the 1st overall seed, dropping Houston to 2nd.

The Nuggets will come out of the break picking up where they left off. Playing great offensive basketball and mediocre to sub-par defense. I also think when Millsap comes back there will only be a 1-3 game stretch where things look a little out of sync (be prepared for it, and don’t panic!). He will really help the defense and I think his transition into the offense won’t be as difficult as some may think. It will help that he has had a chance to watch how the offense flows from the bench and has hopefully already started picking out spots where he can fit in and contribute. I also think he will really help the team in crunch time as another guy who can calmly make plays when the pressure is high and reassure the rest of the young team.

But their schedule is just too brutal for them to move up into a top 4 seed, and they are too talented to miss the playoffs. My prediction is that they continue to hover around their current winning percentage which gets them the 7th seed. Utah will continue winning with an easy schedule and hop the Nuggets. Portland will sneak in as the 8th seed. Minnesota and OKC will jump up to the 3rd and 4th spots respectively, with San Antonio falling to the 5th seed as their rough schedule starts to hurt them. The Clippers and the Pelicans will be the odd teams out, simply because I think they’re just not as talented as the other teams competing for these spots.

The Nuggets playing Houston is the worst case scenario in my mind. They just seem to be a terrible matchup against the Nuggets and I have almost stopped watching the games when they play each other. The Nuggets never look good against them and it seems like Houston always play well, it makes for frustrating viewing. Now, there is a chance that Millsap could change the chemistry of these matchups and make them more competitive, and hopefully that’s true. Either way, if the Nuggets get matched up against the Rockets in playoffs, I think it’s a pretty quick exit for Denver. I can see them maybe getting one game. However, I think the playoff experience is crucial for this team’s development THIS year and will be great for them moving forward. We can also hope I’m completely wrong and the Nuggets get the 3-seed, match up against the Blazers, bounce them in 5 or 6 games, play 2-seed Golden State in the 2nd round and shock the world in 7 games. AND THEN, they lose to Houston in 5.



