Las Vegas Odds (Not Odd Las Vegans)

Bovada released new odds to win the 2013 World Series after the R.A. Dickey trade. The Blue Jays are pulled on top of the leaderboard with 15/2 (equivalent to 7.5/1) odds to win it all, improving from 10/1 exactly one week ago. Last week, there was a tie for the highest odds: the Tigers, Nationals, and Dodgers were all at 17/2 (8.5/1). By the way, I understand the desire to use only whole numbers in odds fractions, but I feel it is much easier to compare if all the odds are reduced to a common denominator.

Odds are set by people who want to make money from gamblers, they are not calculated or estimated probabilities of what's going to happen. Teams that have made the most noise in the off season (Blue Jays, Dodgers, Angels) will probably get the most interest from gamblers and to balance things out, odds are increased. Rob Neyer writes about what he thinks are the Jays' real chances in his piece on Baseball Nation. Basically with these odds, betting on the Jays, Dodgers, Angels, or Nationals to win the World Series is probably not the best way to wager your money.

Looking at these odds, if you can't wager on the Blue Jays (just so you won't feel bad betting against your favourite team), which team would you put your (fictional) money on? I'd probably take the 12/1 odds and pick the Cincinnati Reds to win it all--not that I think they would, but it's a good risk. I might throw in a fictional $10 bet on the Astros for the heck of it.

Bovada also has the following odds:

Odds to win the AL East : Blue Jays 3/2 (1.5/1) , Yankees 19/10 (1.9/1), Rays 5/1, Red Sox 11/2 (5.5/1), Orioles 10/1

Over/under on total regular season wins for the Blue Jays: 92.5

Over/under on total R.A. Dickey wins: 16.5

Over/under on R.A. Dickey ERA: 3.10

Again here, I wouldn't bet on the Blue Jays to win the AL East due to the low payout. The Rays, at 5/1 look enticing, though. And how will you take these over/unders? I'd probably take under on team wins, over on Dickey wins, over on Dickey ERA. By the way--I am horrible at prediction and I don't gamble at all, so the only piece of advice I think you should take is: have fun, and bet within your own limits.

Attendance Prediction

We are still a long way away from Opening Day (about 3 months, 13 days, 7 hours, and 30 minutes left!) but 1 Blue Jays Way (@1BJW) tweeted a question that I think would be fun to think about:

Opening home stand of the year is 6 games. Over/Under on total attendance, I'll set the line at 240,000. What are you saying? #bluejays — 1 Blue Jays Way (@1BJW) December 19, 2012

Let's have our own little Bluebird Banter pool. We can't have any prizes, due to legal issues, but we can give away bragging rights to the commenter who is closest to predicting the total official attendance of the Blue Jays' first homestand of the 2013 regular season without going over. So it's "Price is Right" rules. Go!



