At the surface level, Nitish Kumar has done in Bihar what Naveen Patnaik did in Odisha in 2009. But there are crucial differences between the two scenarios.

At the surface level, Nitish Kumar has done in Bihar what Naveen Patnaik did in Odisha in 2009: unilaterally breaking an alliance with the BJP and emerging stronger for it. But there are crucial differences between the two scenarios.

First, Naveen sprang a surprise by snapping ties with the BJP just a month before the simultaneous parliamentary and assembly elections and leaving the saffron party little time to recover from the shock and prepare for an election. Second, unlike Nitish in this election, Naveen did not tie up with any party to compensate for the possible loss of vote share and decided to go it alone. As subsequent events proved, the decision took BJD to an unassailable position and reduced BJP to a fringe player in the state.

But the lesson from both the 2009 election (as also the 2014 general election) in Odisha and the Bihar election is the same: with the right electoral strategy, regional parties have it in them to trump the two national parties (Congress and BJP) in their home turf. Predictably, speculation has already begun on whether the Bihar verdict would result in the coming together of regional parties in the form of a Mahagathbandhan at the national level to take on the BJP-led NDA. Any such alliance at the national level would obviously have to include the BJD, which, far from suffering any anti-incumbency after 15 uninterrupted years in power, has never looked stronger.

There is one hitch though. In his rule which has spanned a decade and a half, Naveen has repeatedly made it clear that he has no desire to be the king or king maker at the national level. Ironically, the man who came to power in the state after two years as a Union minister has shown no inclination to play a national role. “I am happy to serve my people’ has been his constant refrain whenever he has been asked the question.

For a while in the run up to the Presidential election in 2012, Naveen gave the impression that he was aspiring for a national role by batting for PA Sangma, only to back off later. After initially appearing to play ball, he backed out of the abortive effort initiated by the two Left parties to build an 11-party alliance in 2013. Finally, after the 2014 elections, there was talk of him forging an alliance with the two other Chief Ministers who bucked the national trend and won – Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu and Mamata Banerjee – and Nitish Kumar in Bihar. But nothing came out of it.

Despite his constant refrain of being ‘equidistant from both Congress and BJP’, Naveen has found it expedient to deal with these two parties at the centre rather than hobnobbing with other like-minded, secular parties. While the Congress was his principal foe in Odisha, the BJD supremo enjoyed the best of equation with the Congress-led Manmohan Singh government, which bailed him out of tricky situations at crucial junctures – the mining and coal scams being two prime examples. Congress leaders fighting Naveen in Odisha were repeatedly embarrassed when minister after a central minister praised the chief minister.

Given Naveen’s bitter parting of ways with the BJP in 2009, most political pundits had thought the Narendra Modi government would not commit the mistake its predecessor had done, reducing the Congress to a rump in the state in the process. For one thing, the BJP saw itself as a party with a great future in the state. For another, it had nothing to gain by playing ball with its erstwhile ally.

But as events since the May 2014 elections have shown, the Modi government has followed in the footsteps of the Manmohan Singh government by extending a hand of friendship to the BJD boss and – like its predecessor – bailing out Naveen whenever he has been in trouble. A case in point is the ongoing CBI probe into the mega chit fund scam in the state. Around this time last year, the CBI probe looked to have implicated almost the entire BJD brass in the scam. Prabhat Tripathy, a four-time MLA and senior leader of the BJD and Ramachandra Hansda, BJD MP from Mayurbhanj, went to jail while as many as 11 ministers were under investigation for their role in the scam. At one stage, the probe had reached the doorsteps of Naveen with his Saroj Sahu, his personal assistant, being grilled by the premier investigating agency for two hours.

But suddenly, the noose, which till then had been tightening around his neck, looked like loosening. The energetic CBI SP in Bhubaneswar was shunted out and Prakash Mishra, Naveen’s bête noire, prevented from becoming CBI chief despite being the top contender for the post after the departure of the disgraced Ranjit Sinha. No wonder the probe began to meander along after that.

Earlier, BJP President Amit Shah, on his maiden visit, had embarrassed his state leaders by refusing point blank to utter a word against Naveen either at the public meeting or at the press conference that followed the next morning.

As in the UPA regime, Naveen is having the best of both the worlds: crying ‘central neglect’ as and when the occasion demands it– as in the case of Polavaram dam or cuts in central funding for schemes like KBK – while enjoying the best of relations with top BJP leaders and banking on them for help when needed.

Against this backdrop, there appears to be no reason for him to abandon this cosy arrangement with the Modi government that has served both his political and personal interests well and joining the Opposition bandwagon in the wake of Ntish Kumar’s stupendous victory in Bihar.