Why Andrew Scheer is About to Lose the 2019 Election

Headed for the October 21 federal election well ahead in the polls, Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party looked unstoppable. Justin Trudeau was tarnished by the SNC-Lavalin scandal, and years of missteps in his first term in government. As the election progressed, Trudeau’s blackface incident took away any credibility the Prime Minister had as a progressive leader. Jagmeet Singh was mired in a distant fight for third with the Greens. The election was Scheer’s to lose.

Fast forward to the last weekend of the campaign. Almost seventy percent of decided Canadian voters have been steadily against the Conservatives, who remain in a dead heat with the Liberals. More problematic, in no area of the country except for Alberta and the non-urban Prairies has Scheer taken a clear lead. The Bloc Quebecois may eliminate the Conservatives entirely from Quebec. A surging Jagmeet Singh threatens to pull up to twenty potential seats from the Conservatives in their Western Canada stronghold – including Scheer’s own seat, along with other seats across Canada. A secret Tory plan to destroy the People’s Party using Warren Kinsella’s political hit firm was exposed by the media and may go under RCMP investigation.

This is the story of how Andrew Scheer lost an election that looked impossible to lose.

The Polls

Polls at the end of the 2019 campaign have not been kind to the Tory leader.

Federal Election Polling: LPC: 32.6% (+1.1)

CPC: 30.3% (-1.3)

NDP: 18.4% (-0.6)

GPC: 9.3% (-0.2)

BQ: 7.1% (+0.9)

PPC: 1.9% (+0.1) Nanos Research / October 18, 2019 / n=1200 / MOE 2.8% / Telephone (% chg w Oct 17)#cdnpoli #elxn43 pic.twitter.com/qIiLXesDDJ — Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 19, 2019

Scheer’s vote has collapsed entirely in Quebec, and the Tories will not win more than a handful of seats – as the Bloc Quebecois has replaced the Tories as Quebec’s second party, Conservatives are now battling for a third place showing in Quebec with the NDP.

The coasts are in play, but look to be split. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals still have a strong lead, with the Conservatives and New Democrats each expected to pick up a few seats. In British Columbia, the Conservatives had an early lead due to vote splitting, but the NDP now sits tied with the Conservatives, and strategic voting may deny the Conservatives a majority of seats in BC.

Most significant, in seat rich Ontario, the Liberals maintain a lead in a majority of ridings, with New Democrats taking support at the expense of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Conservatives appear unlikely to win more than forty percent of the seats in Canada’s largest province.

Even in strongholds like Alberta and rural Saskatchewan, New Democrats appear to be picking seats off the margin, including Scheer’s own seat, which has come into play as Conservatives have fallen in the polls and the NDP has gained.

Best Prime Minister Choice: Trudeau: 28% (-3)

Scheer: 24% (-5)

Singh: 24% (+11)

May: 8% (-1) Don’t Know: 16% (-2) Forum Research / Oct 16, 2019 / n=1028 / IVR (% chg w Oct 2) — Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 18, 2019

Polling analysts now say there is no path to a Conservative majority, and the likelihood that the Conservatives will win the most seats is steadily shrinking.

With a weak prime minister, and Canadians demanding change, how did Scheer lose the election?

Mr. Scheer, We Never Knew You

Throughout the 2019 campaign, conservative insiders were critical of Scheer for a robotic demeanour that failed to connect with Canadians. Scheer’s speeches were unemotional and lacked passion. His meetings with Canadians were broadly seen as insincere. In a campaign where Canadians were looking for a genuine connection, Scheer left Canadians feeling like they did not know him.

Coupled with unforced errors, like revelation of an incident where he remained seated during the national anthem, failure to disclose his American citizenship, and Scheer misleading Canadians as to his professional qualifications as an insurance broker, distractions from the campaign were a painful theme for Scheer’s campaign staff. Scheer himself was evasive with the media, and failed to give forthright answers to questions.

In the last weekend of the campaign, dirty tactics on the part of the Scheer campaign came to light. Scheer’s party hired former Liberal insider Warren Kinsella to “seek and destroy” the People’s Party, by painting it as intolerant and marginal. For a leader who was trying to portray a “nice guy” image, the look was devastating.

Here’s what Andrew Scheer had to say about a report that the Conservative Party hired a consulting firm to discredit PPC Leader Maxime Bernier. Read more here: https://t.co/BVAua5qlL4 #elxn43 #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/r5UBMZ0YXh — CTV News (@CTVNews) October 19, 2019

In contrast to NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, whose warmth and directness has resonated with Canadians, making him the most popular of the five federal leaders, Scheer’s stilted behavior undermined his message. In Quebec, the earnest seriousness of Yves-François Blanchet was starkly different from Scheer’s disconnected immaturity. In a campaign that was about trust, Scheer simply did not resonate – and the dark behind-the-scenes tactics employed by the Conservatives leave Scheer looking like an unknown commodity.

Where is the Policy Book?

Canadians could have forgiven Scheer’s personality if his policy playbook resonated with them.

Puzzlingly, however, Scheer’s team did not release a platform until the last week of the campaign, after the debates had occurred. The Scheer platform focused extensively on major cuts, leaving Canadians worried about precisely what cuts would be made if Scheer obtained a majority government – particularly cuts to the child tax benefit and Medicare the conservatives have long desired.

The Conservative party says it will cut $18-billion in infrastructure spending days after Mr. Scheer criticized the Liberals for not spending enough on infrastructure. https://t.co/r1hwPqsa5T — Denise Balkissoon (@balkissoon) October 11, 2019

The late release of the Conservative platform left no time to introduce it to Canadians and no time for debate. The New Democratic platform had been released, with major ideas like dental care, pharmacare, national child care, and green jobs for oil workers laid off in the downturn – with the platform released well before the campaign even started. Singh laid out his party’s plan for Canada, while Scheer left Canadians to worry that his government would return canada to the cuts of the Harper years. On the other side of the political spectrum, People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier also released his platform early, permitting a surge in support for the People’s Party as people understood the goals and aims of that party, leaving Scheer looking impotent through the campaign.

Conservative insiders see Scheer’s failure to set out his policy plan early as a serious mistake, allowing Scheer’s opponents to define him as opposed to presenting his own vision for Canada.

The Vultures Circle

Even before the campaign has ended, Scheer’s rivals within the Conservative Party have begun circling his leadership. Individuals close to former cabinet minister Peter MacKay’s camp tweeted their concerns with the Scheer campaign. Supporters of anti-abortion, social conservative Saskatchewan MP Brad Trost, who lost his right to run for his own seat to an Ottawa-picked insider – have reportedly started quietly raising money, as Trost is also reportedly considering another leadership run.

Sources in the Conservative Party indicate that if Scheer does not win a plurality of seats – an increasingly unlikely scenario – it would be almost impossible for Scheer to remain as party leader. Further complicating matters for Scheer, his own seat is being targeted by New Democratic and Indigenous activists, along with a strong People’s Party candidate, and a loss in Regina Qu’Appelle to the NDP would also effectively end his run as leader of the Conservative Party.

With the Conservatives continuing to fall in the polls as election day approaches, it is difficult to see a scenario favorable to Scheer in the Parliamentary outcome. The election was Andrew Scheer’s to lose. It appears that he has been the author of his own demise.

Canadians go to the polls on October 21st.