I used to help draft the National Intelligence Estimate.

In case you’re not familiar with the finer points of threat assessment within the national security apparatus, the NIE is the big enchilada: the document seen by presidents and members of congress; an objective, non-political, comprehensive piece of work that categorises and prioritises the threats faced by the United States.

While I no longer have regular access to the complete set of intelligence reports from which the NIE is drawn, I have access to some, and I am an avid reader of the related publicly available information.

I’ve developed my own amateur NIE based on this information, and here’s the organisation at the top of the list:

The Republican Party.

Shocking as that may seem – and your level of shock may vary widely depending on how closely you’ve been tracking the actions both center stage and behind the scenes of the rapidly toxifying Grand Ole Party – the real problem with this revelation is that we cannot actually do much about this threat in the classic manner.

The threat from the right is the first national-level “insider threat” the United States has faced since the Civil War. It is insidious, asymmetric, powerful – and existential.

How did I come to this conclusion? Through empirical evidence and specialised experience, using the same approach as when I helped draft a document seen by the most powerful men and women in the country.

One of the effective modern techniques we’ve developed to deal with threats is intelligence analysis – in which we methodically examine all potential threats and categorise them for effective response. Categorisations range from existential – such as that from thermonuclear war with the Soviet Union or global warming – to challenging – such as terrorism – to those of a merely nuisance variety.

Trump refuses to back down on racist tweets: 'it's my opinion they hate our country'

The NIE, like all intelligence products, is supposed to be: objective; non-political; current; empirically valid; and zero-based (starting without assumptions.)

A part of categorisation or as a next step is threat prioritisation – in which we basically rank the range of threats we face so we can apply limited resources to bring down the risk. This is a necessary action, but one that is often not totally satisfactory to all citizens. For instance, the shift we’ve had to take in response to terrorism – from total elimination of the threat to limiting its potential impact — does not appear to many Americans as a proportional response to the problem. Nonetheless, from the resource and policy perspective, it is the right course of action.

Let me say it again: the Republican Party is the biggest threat the United States is facing. And without proper attribution, recognition, and a well-articulated and implemented counter-strategy, it could be terminal.

There is no other reasonable conclusion to be drawn from the facts.

An enemy of the United States might seek to sow discord between ethnic groups, or to wage a disinformation campaign, or to highlight moral inconsistencies that weaken the standing of the United States on the world stage. An enemy of the United States might try and degrade the capacity and public trust within our intelligence apparatus. It might use propaganda and weaponised information. It might seek to engage in fraud or other criminal acts to sway an election in their favour.

Does any of that sound familiar?

The Republican Party has steadily embraced authoritarianism, suspect electoral tactics, and racism more and more over the past few decades. That process has been turbocharged with Trump at the helm of the party.

We’re now seeing an explicit embrace of white supremacy. Denial in the face of climate change. Deliberate sowing of discord within the FBI and the CIA. Weakening of the rule of law. Brazen criminality. Removing funding for elections oversight. Blatant human rights abuses at the border.

The explicit nature of these acts is the point. The Republicans mean to bludgeon any and all resistance to their reshaping of the nation’s institutions to their will.

And so far, they’ve gotten away with it.

Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Show all 30 1 /30 Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Members of the Proud Boys, a fascist group, jeer at anti-Trump protesters outside of the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A supporter dressed as Uncle Sam poses at Uncle Sam Reuters Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A baby blimp rears its head amidst a group of anti-Trump protesters outside the president't campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam President Trump addresses supporters at the launch event of his 2020 election campaign in Orlando, Florida Reuters Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Proud Boys have adopted Fred Perry polo shirts as their uniform and many members have the name of the group tattooed on their arms Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A line of police officers separate opposing groups of protesters outside the launch of President Trump's 2020 campaign launch Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A protester hits a Trump punching bag during a protest outside Trump's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Twin Trump supporters pose for a photo at the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Reuters Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A protester dressed as a caricature of Donald Trump stands outside the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida AP Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A Trump supporter faces off against a protester outside the president's campaign launch in Orlando, Florida AFP/Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A Proud Boy shouts across the police line at anti-Trump protesters outside the president's campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A Trump supporter poses for a photo at the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Reuters Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A Proud Boy jeers at anti-Trump protesters who are separated from the president's supporters by a police line outside the president's campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A man dressed as Uncle Sam poses at President Trump's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Reuters Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam An anti-Trump protester faces off against a supporter outside the president's campaign launch in Orlando, Florida AFP/Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Members of the Proud Boys, a fascist group, jeer at anti-Trump protesters outside of the president's 2020 campaign launch Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A child holds a 2020 US "dollar bill" that features Donald Trump's face at the president's 2020 campaign launch EPA Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Anti-Trump protesters rally outside the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Anti-Trump protesters rally outside the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Numerous baby Trump balloons are raised in protests outside of the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A supporter wears a T-shirt depicting Trump as a hero at the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Reuters Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam President Trump addresses supporters at the launch event of his 2020 election campaign in the Amway Centre in Orlando, Florida AFP/Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam An anti-Trump protester calls for the president to be impeached outside the launch event for his 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Supporters of Donald Trump face off against protesters outside of the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida AP Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A baby blimp rises behind a group of anti-Trump protesters outside the president's campaign launch in Orlando, Florida AP Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A supporter dressed as Uncle Sam poses at President Trump's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida AP Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A member of the Proud Boys, a fascist group, holds a sign up outside of the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida AFP/Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam A supporter bears a Trump flag at the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Reuters Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam Protesters hold baby Trump balloons in the rally outside of the president's 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida Getty Trump 2020 launch: Fascist Proud Boys, baby blimps and Uncle Sam An anti-Trump protester holds a sign accusing the president of being a traitor Getty

Donald Trump and his coterie of criminals have done more in two years to weaken the United States than the Soviet Union was able to achieve in decades, a stolen gold medal in Olympic basketball notwithstanding.

In other words, Americans have every right to fear the power and influence of the Republican Party – and it is in fact irrational to continue to downplay the threat even as most, including Nancy Pelosi and many Democrats, continue to do so.