Donald J. Trump, the Republican candidate for president, leads his Democratic rival Hillary R. Clinton with 42 percent to her 38 percent in Colorado and the contest for its nine electoral votes, according to the Emerson College Polling Society poll released Thursday.

“Compared to earlier Emerson polls, these latest results suggest that voters’ expectations about who will win the presidential race are shifting,” according to the poll’s summary statement.

“In previous surveys, a larger percentage of all voters expressed the belief that Clinton will win the election compared to those who believe Trump will,” the statement said. “That gap appears to be narrowing, with only 45 percent of the national electorate saying Clinton will win, compared to 43 percent who say Trump will.”

In the national poll, Emerson found Trump leading Clinton with 43 percent to her 41 percent.

In the 2012 election, President Barack Obama beat his GOP rival W. Mitt Romney with 52 percent of the vote compared to Romney’s 46 percent.

Emerson found both candidates suffer from poor favorable/unfavorable differential ratings. Trump has a negative 18-point gap between his favorable/unfavorable rating from Colorado voters and Clinton has a negative 21-point gap.

Among Colorado women, Trump and Clinton are tied at 41 percent, but Trump leads with men with 43 percent support compared to 36 percent for Clinton.

The poll was executed during the former first lady’s heat stress incident at Sunday’s ceremony at Ground Zero in New York City. Respondents said they became aware of the incident over the course of the poll and Emerson determined the incident hurt Clinton among undecided voters.

The poll was conducted Sept. 11 through Sept. 13 with 800 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.4 percent, under the supervision of Emerson College’s Professor Spencer Kimball. Data was weighted to match a 2012 election turnout model.