Donald Trump's momentum is unlikely to be derailed in the big-state Republican presidential primaries on Tuesday – except in Ohio, where home-state Gov. John Kasich is favored to win.

And in Florida, insiders in both parties see Tuesday as the likely denouement of Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in three of the five states headed to the polls on Tuesday: Ohio, North Carolina and Florida.


On the Democratic side, insiders give Hillary Clinton the edge in all five states voting on Tuesday — but they caution that Bernie Sanders is a very close second in a handful of states.

The Republican insiders’ predictions for Tuesday mostly mirror the public polling: Trump is a heavy favorite in winner-take-all Florida, while nearly all insiders picked Kasich to pocket all of Ohio’s 66 delegates.

In the other three states, Trump was favored by nine-in-10 insiders in North Carolina, eight-in-10 in Illinois and seven-in-10 in Missouri, where some insiders picked Texas Sen. Ted Cruz to upset Trump.

But in the race for Florida’s 99 delegates, Trump is the odds-on favorite: 90 percent of all Republican insiders across the three states — and all but one of the 33 Florida insiders (from both parties) who completed the survey — picked Trump to carry the state. A number of Republicans in Florida even suggested Cruz, not Rubio, could finish second to Trump.

“Rubio is locked in a fight for second with Cruz in Florida and may finish third as his highest mark in the five states,” said a Florida Republican, who like all the insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “Kasich wins his home state, Rubio does not.”

“It’s the end of the road for Marco,” added another.

Democrats in the state are already gloating.

“Unless the polls are way off, which is not unrealistic this year, [Tuesday] will spell the end of the rise of Marco Rubio in American politics,” said one. “For Democrats across the country, stopping Trump may be the most important thing, but for Florida Democrats, we are simply giddy at the prospect of seeing the death of Little Marco’s political ambitions.”

It’s a different story in Ohio, where nine-in-10 insiders from both parties (and almost as many Republicans from both parties) picked Kasich, who’s currently in fourth place overall in the delegate count, to defeat Trump.

“During the [final] Iowa debate, John Kasich spoke to New Hampshire primary voters, and it worked,” said an Ohio Republican. “During the Florida debate [last week], he spoke to Ohio primary voters, and it's working. Numbers in Ohio are moving in his direction. After Tuesday, chaos will ensue.”

“Trump’s momentum is slowing a bit,” another Ohio Republican added. “However, those in the Acela Corridor media who think that the ‘Trump rallies are violent’ narrative is somehow hurting Trump don’t really understand what’s driving the passion and anger of the voters who are turning out to support him.”

But even those insiders who expect Trump to win Florida and elsewhere still see a protracted battle for the nomination.

“After this round of elections on Tuesday everything tightens up as Rubio drops out after Florida, Kasich picks up momentum after Ohio, Cruz and Trump battle for the 1,237, then in [July] we go to the convention and the real games begin,” a Florida Republican said.

Insiders in the three states completed the survey on Sunday and Monday — after Trump was forced to cancel a rally in Chicago late last week, citing the threat of violence in the crowd as protesters clashed with Trump backers.

While insiders weren’t asked specifically about the increasingly pitched nature of Trump events, some used the survey to address this dynamic.

“For the most part, Trump’s hard-core supporters have not seen a reason this week to change their minds,” a North Carolina Republican said. “They likely see the Chicago incident as an indication for why we need Trump rather than a cautionary tale against Trump.”

“We are at a tipping point in this campaign and country the likes of which I haven’t seen since I was a child,” an Ohio Democrat said. “The blind anger on the left and right has the power to leave us all sightless, and that should concern us all, not just today or tomorrow, but for a generation to come.”

In the Democratic race, according to insiders in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, Hillary Clinton is favored to win those states. It’s in the other two states going to the polls on Tuesday — Illinois and Missouri — that Bernie Sanders is viewed as having the best chances to score upsets.

“I think that Bernie will win Illinois because of his repeated … attaching Hillary to [Chicago Mayor] Rahm Emanuel,” said one Ohio Democrat who predicted “that the anger and frustration felt by Chicagoans for Rahm will be expressed through votes for Bernie.”

Broken out by state, Democrats overwhelmingly picked Clinton to win Florida, with 95 percent tapping the former secretary of state. Insiders were unanimous that Clinton would win North Carolina — but a handful of Democrats there cautioned the race could be closer than polls indicate.

“Hillary will win the … primary,” said one North Carolina Democrat, “but with the state's makeup, I think the margin will be between 5 and 10 points. Bernie has a lot of support in the Asheville area along with college pockets such as Chapel Hill and Raleigh. … Charlotte will be competitive, but Clinton will carry [Mecklenburg] County.”

In Ohio, roughly three-quarters of Democrats picked Clinton to win, but some still see Sanders as a threat.

“While I am predicting a win for Hillary in Ohio, I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset and a Bernie win. Both candidates have their supporters, but the Bernie supporters have been active in the state longer,” said one Ohio Democrat, who criticized the Clinton campaign for not focusing enough on locales outside of the three major cities in the state. “Unfortunately, unless you are in one of the three Cs, Hillary camp is playing catch up. Big mistake a lot of campaigns make: Ohio is more than Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati! When will they every learn?”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Florida: Alia Faraj-Johnson, Andrea Reilly, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, April Schiff, Ashley Walker, Ben Pollara, Beth Matuga, Brian E. Crowley, Chris Korge, Christian Ulvert, Damien Filer, David Beattie, David Johnson, Dennis Baxley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Nuender, Eric Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Fernand R. Amandi, Fred Menachem, Gus Corbella, Jacki Lee, Jessica D. Ehrlich, Joe Mobley, John Dowless, Jon Mills, Joseph Falk, Judith Diaz, Justin Day, Kelly Cohen, Kevin Cate, Kevin Sweeny, Marian Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Marty Fiorentino, Max Steele, Nelson Diaz, Nick Iarossi, Pamela Burch Fort, Rich Heffley, Richard R. Swann, Rick Wilson, Roger Stone, Ronald L. Book, Ryan Duffy, Ryan Wiggins, Scott Arceneaux, Slater Bayliss, Steve Schale, Steven Vancore, Susan A. MacManus, Tim Baker, Wayne Bertsch

North Carolina: Anita S. Earls, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charles Wallin, Christopher Sgro, Dee Stewart, Douglas Wilson, Dylan Frick, Francis X. De Luca, Jonathan Felts, Melissa Reed, Michael Luethy, Morgan Jackson, Paul Shumaker, Patsy Keever, Ray Martin, Robin Hayes, Tami Fitzgerald, Theresa Kostrzewa, Thomas Mills

Ohio: Bill DeMora, Bob Clegg, Cindy Demse, Damareo Cooper, David Leland, David Pepper, Erica Bruton, Greg Beswick, Ian James, Jai Chabria, Janet Carson, Jo Ann Davidson, Joe Hallett, Kathy DiCristofaro, Katie Eagan, Mark R. Weaver, Martha Clark, Matt Borges, Melissa Klide Hedden, Michael Gonidakis, Mike Dawson, Molly Shack, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, Tim Burke, Wes Goodman

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.