This gets repeated a lot:

Trump has to win 55-60% of the remaining delegates to hit 1,237. That’s gonna be tough!

But it’s not as daunting as it sounds:

Trump has ~670 delegates.

Trump is a lock in NY (95 delegates).

Trump is a lock in winner-take-all CA (172 delegates).

Trump is a lock in winner-take-all NJ (51 delegates).

Trump is a lock in winner-take-all AZ (58 delegates).

Trump needs just ~230 delegates of the remaining 533.

Even if we’re ultra-conservative w/ proportional contests, and assume Trump loses a number of states that he could win, 1,237 is still very doable…

Delegates Guesstimate Post-Super Yugeday Trump: 650+ delegates March 22 Arizona (WTA) 58 58 Utah 40 0 April 5 Wisconsin (WTM) 42 30 April 19 New York 95 60 April 26 Connecticut 28 10 Delaware (WTA) 16 0 Maryland (WTM) 38 30 PA (WTM) 71 50 Rhode Island 19 10 May 3 Indiana (WTM) 57 45 May 10 Nebraska (WTA) 36 0 West Virginia 34 25 May 17 Oregon 28 10 May 24 Washington 44 20 Jun 7 California (WTA) 172 172 Montana (WTA) 27 0 New Jersey (WTA) 51 51 New Mexico 24 10 South Dakota (WTA) 29 29 Total: ~1280

But wait!

California

It’s a Trump state more than a Cruz state. Cruz surged earlier this year, but the most recent polls have Trump back on top…

NSON Opinion Strategy

CA 2016 03/09 – 03/10/16 Donald Trump 38 Ted Cruz 22 John Kasich 20

Smith Johnson Research

CA 2016 03/07 – 03/09/16 Donald Trump 25 Ted Cruz 20 John Kasich 15

But by June 7, the Dem race will have been decided– opening the door for unprecedented numbers of Democrats and Hispanics to register as Republicans to vote against Trump.

Jeff Roe is on it…

In internal campaign memo, Cruz camp charts path forward — UT, WI, caucuses, closed primaries and "win big" on 6/7. https://t.co/1AHCPcOuKz — Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) March 16, 2016

And, if you take into account:

Kasich eats into Trump’s margin of victory in the Northeast.

Cruz’s momentum from OR and WA wins.

GOP donors bombard CA w/ anti-Trump ads.

Violent protests dog Trump across CA.

Then it’s possible Cruz takes CA, and keeps Trump just short of 1,237.

Epilogue

Cruz-Kasich loses to Hillary, the GOP establishment reasserts control, and the party’s elder statesmen admonishes the base angrily: