Second referendum or general election? What would actually happen if Parliament blocked Theresa May’s Brexit deal A National Government? Unlikely, but in such a febrile situation anything is possible

Despite the rebuff she received at the Salzburg summit, it should not be assumed that May’s Brexit plans are dead. Some version, undoubtedly involving further erasure of her red lines, may well yet lead to a Withdrawal Agreement and future terms declaration.

It will then come to the House of Commons for approval, with a good chance of being defeated (there’s some parliamentary arcana about what ‘approval’ and ‘defeat’ would mean but in practical political terms the government’s Brexit policy would be scuppered).

If so, what happens then?

The first thing to say is that it would be a political crisis without any real precedent, so all predictions are likely to be off beam. Much would depend on how and when the vote happened, but let’s assume it is late November and the defeat comes about through a combination of opposition party votes plus rebellion from the ERG wing of the Conservatives and the DUP.

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One version – apparently Theresa May’s current view – is that this simply means that there will be no deal with the EU, the Government continues and come March 2019 Brexit occurs. That is probably only a tactic to pressure MPs into supporting any deal, given that the consequences of no deal are so horrendous.

But that cuts both ways: should it come about, precisely those horrendous consequences would surely preclude the Government smoothly carrying on. For one thing, the immediate economic

repercussions would be enormous. For another, the no deal plans the Government has begun to publish would suddenly have to be developed in detail and implemented. The public – and many

Tory MPs – would be aghast.

The political options would be severely truncated by there being only four months left on the Article 50 clock, with some of that knocked out by the Christmas holidays. It therefore seems virtually certain that the first thing that would happen is that the Government would have to seek an extension of that period, which itself would be hugely contentious. This would require unanimous agreement of the EU-27, which most commenters believe would be forthcoming to accommodate a political process (rather than just extending the negotiations).

One scenario then would be for May to resign – although it doesn’t seem in her nature – or be deposed, and a leadership election take place. A coronation would seem unlikely. But, however

achieved, having a new leader would do nothing to change the basic situation of what no deal means, or the parliamentary arithmetic.

Alternatively, May could propose another referendum – despite her current position – which would require legislation, and the Tory Party would undoubtedly be split on whether to support it and if so how to frame it, especially the question to be asked. Still, it’s conceivable that with cross-party support a vote on, perhaps, ‘this deal’ versus ‘remain’ could be agreed (let’s leave to one side the revocability of Article 50).

Another general election

Rather more likely, May would seek a General Election (when? January? February?). The Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a complication but, as 2017 showed, not an insuperable one. But she would have to run on a manifesto asking the voters to endorse her Brexit deal, which those Tory MPs and candidates who do not support it could surely not tolerate. Alternatively, she would have to run on a ‘no deal’ manifesto, which the other wing of her party would not accept. It is difficult to see how a major split in the Tory Party could be averted.

There would also be questions about what policy Labour would run on – another referendum, conceivably, but, again with the complexities of what question to ask. These have been thrown into sharp relief today with debates about whether or not Labour would offer a ‘remain’ option in any future vote. Or they might just offer a new approach to Brexit – seeking soft Brexit, perhaps – with the problem that any extension of the Article 50 period would be unlikely to be long enough for a completely new negotiation.

Clearly all of this is speculative, and does not exhaust the possibilities. A National Government? Unlikely, but in such a febrile situation anything is possible. Which is really the key point – and perhaps the key reason why, like it or not, the Brexiters may support any deal that emerges.

Everything would be thrown up in the air. No one can say for sure where the pieces would land but one combination means Brexit being cancelled. That would be the end of one chapter in the Brexit story, but the beginning of a new and potentially even more turbulent one.