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By Jeff Aranow: WBA featherweight champion Abner Mares says Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has the edge against IBF, IBO, WBA, WBC middleweight champion in their fight on September 16 due to his youth, power and it being in his prime. Mares still sees the Canelo-Golovkin as a tough on to predict because of how good Golovkin is.

It’s two very good middleweights battling it out in a fight that could be decided with one big punch on September 16 on HBO PPV at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Of all the fights in boxing, this is one that is least likely to end with a controversial decision. The winner of the Canelo vs. GGG fight will have proven it. They won’t need to get help from the judges like we’ve seen lately in boxing.

Abner Mares says GGG did not look at his very best in his last 2 bouts against Kell Brook and Daniel Jacobs. Abner feels that Canelo has looked like a “beast” in his recent fights against Liam Smith, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Amir Khan and James Kirkland. Canelo knocked out 3 of those 4 fighters. The only guy that he couldn’t stop was Julio Chavez Jr.

Canelo tried hard to stop Chavez Jr., but he didn’t have the size or the punching power to do the job on him. Chavez Jr. made it difficult for Canelo to knock him out by not throwing punches. Canelo is a classic counter puncher, who needs for his opponents to throw shots for him to counter them.

“It’s a tricky fight, because Triple G hasn’t been looking great, and Canelo has been looking like a beast,” said Abner Mares to ES News Reporting in discussing the Canelo vs. GGG fight. “But then again, Triple G is Triple G. He’s a monster. I give the upper hand to Canelo, because he’s younger, he’s stronger and it’s his time,” said Mares.

Mares’ comment about Canelo being “stronger” than Golovkin would seem to be incorrect. Canelo might be stronger if they were in a weight lifting contest or some other non-fighting test of strength, but as far as punching power, Canelo does not appear to be stronger than Golovkin. In fact, I’d say Canelo considerably weaker than Triple G.

If Golovkin traded places with Canelo in his last fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., you can assume that Golovkin would have knocked him out. Chavez Jr’s chances of surviving the full 12 rounds against a puncher like Golovkin would be slim. Chavez Jr. looked weak and weight drained against Canelo. Golovkin said he was surprised that Canelo couldn’t knockout Chavez Jr.

It’s very interesting for me, because why Canelo not best him? He didn’t even knock him down or stop him. He looked terrible. Yeah, he must [knock Chavez Jr. out],” said Golovkin to TMZ.com in commenting on Canelo’s inability to knockout Chavez Jr.

The 27-year-old Canelo is younger than the 35-year-old Golovkin. Whether that will help him withstand the Kazakhstan fighters’ still formidable power is the big question. Youth generally helps win fights in boxing, but it doesn’t help a person take power shots. It doesn’t matter that Golovkin is 8 years older than Canelo.

If Canelo is unable to handle the tremendous power of Golovkin, he’s going to get knocked out. Canelo’s punching power is going to need to be a lot better than it looked in his last fight against Chavez Jr. for him to beat Golovkin, considering that he did not look like a middleweight as far as his power goes. Canelo was punching like a pumped junior middleweight, who didn’t bring his power up to super middleweight with him.

Golovkin’s promoter Tom Loeffler says Canelo will be at his best weight with him fighting at 160. He thinks Canelo looked powerful and fought better in his recent 164 ½ pound catch-weight fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on May 6.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s an early knockout, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the full 12 rounds,” said Golovkin’s promoter Tom Loeffler of K2 Promotions in talking to the boxing media. “Abel [Sanchez] said he wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the 12 rounds. Canelo is a durable guy, he’s fast; he showed a tremendous amount of poise in the Chavez Jr. fight. He fought 9 pounds heavier than he fought before. That was a big jump up in weight for him. Chavez Jr. was physically bigger than him. You can say Chavez Jr. was really drained, so he didn’t really bring much to the table. He’s a big guy. He has talent. Maybe he could have landed one of those big punches like he landed against Sergio Martinez,” said Loeffler.

An early knockout favors Golovkin because of his advantage in punching power. Golovkin has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career. Canelo is fighting for the first time against a true middleweight, and he’s fighting the best. The lack of experience for Canelo could be a real liability in this fight. You cannot count Chavez Jr. as experience at middleweight for Canelo. Chavez Jr. looked ill inside the ring. Chavez Jr wasn’t a middleweight or even a super middleweight. He looked like a sick person that wasn’t well on the night of the fight after weeks of draining weight to make the 164.5 pound catch-weight for the fight.

“At 160, I think you’ll see Canelo at his peak physical condition and a very motivated Triple G,” said Loeffler. That’s what makes the fight so intriguing.”

Will 160 be the best weight for Canelo? I don’t know if it will be. Personally, I feel that the best weight for Canelo is 154. It’s the weight class where his power goes the furthest. At 160, Canelo is nothing special. There are bigger punchers in the middleweight division than Canelo in my opinion. I rate these fighters as having more power than Canelo:

1. David Lemieux

2. Gennady Golovkin

3. Jermall Charlo

4. Danny Jacobs

5. Sergey Derevyanchenko

6. Andy Lee

Canelo is a good puncher for the junor middleweight division, but he does not have the power that we’re seeing with some of the bigger punchers in the 160 pound weight class. Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez recognizes that. Sanchez has spotted Canelo’s lack of power and he sees him as inadequate in being able to hurt Triple G.

”If you could not hurt Chavez and [Miguel] Cotto, you will not be able to hurt Gennady Golovkin, who has 400 fights, and they’ve never hurt him,” said Sanchez to ESPN Deportes.

Sanchez brings up a very good point about Canelo not being able to hurt Cotto and Chavez Jr. Canelo is not a one-punch guy. He’s a fighter that gets most of his knockouts by him landing an accumulation of blows over a long period of time. In Canelo’s knockouts wins over Amir Khan and James Kirkland, he was able to catch them with counter shots that they didn’t see coming. Neither of those two is known for having a great chin. Canelo had the perfect opponents for him to knock out.

Sanchez thinks Golovkin’s power will overwhelm Canelo, causing him to fold early. If Canelo is able to withstand Golovkin’s power early on, Sanchez sees him getting the redheaded Mexican star out in the second half of the fight.

”I feel that Golovkin will have a lot for Canelo and he will win,” said Sanchez. ”If not, he knocks him out in the later rounds.”

It’s going to be a hard fight for Canelo if he stands in the pocket and tries to beat Golovkin with counter punching like he did in the Chavez Jr. fight. If Golovkin is substituted in place of Chavez Jr. last May, Canelo would have found himself involved in a very hard fight that would have been punishing for him.

I don’t know what Canelo’s Plan-B would be if he couldn’t win with his usual counter punching style. He might have to go down with the ship and stick with what’s brought him this far in his boxing career. Trying to change his style to something that he’s never used before in a fight would be a mistake.

Canelo’s trainers will likely have him working on different tactics to try and take away Golovkin’s power advantage. They’re going to study Golovkin’s last fight against Daniel Jacobs to see if Canelo can use movement the way Jacobs did to try and beat him. The mobility that Jacobs used worked for him, because he’s always had good wheels ever since he turned pro. Moving around the ring has never been an issue for Jacobs. Jacobs has long legs, and he’s fast on his feet. Canelo has short legs, and he’s not sat moving. He’s never had to because he’s always been the bigger puncher in his fights.

This will be the first time that Canelo isn’t the bigger puncher when he gets inside the ring with Golovkin. It’s going to be a different situation for Canelo. If he tries to use a style that he’s never employed in any of his fights during his career, it could be a mistake for him. Canelo needs to use what he’s tested in battle in the past rather than adopting a style that he learns in training camp and doesn’t test out.