The Keystone debate has dragged on for six years. Filibuster-proof majority for Keystone

Republicans will command a filibuster-proof Senate majority in favor of the Keystone XL pipeline after Tuesday’s election victories — and they could be within striking distance of assembling a veto-proof bloc for the project, increasing their leverage over President Barack Obama.

The GOP says Keystone will be the subject of one of the first votes in the newly GOP-controlled Senate, when Republicans will be able to join forces with several Democrats who have already publicly backed the Alberta-to-Texas oil pipeline.


“I think first order of business is to pass it out of House, Senate, and then finally force the president to make a decision on it,” a GOP aide said Tuesday night, adding that “the contrast will be crystal clear” if Obama rejects a pipeline that counts support from more than 6 in 10 Americans in public polls.

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“Only then do I think we would rework strategy to secure veto-proof,” the Republican aide said.

Here’s how the math would work: Before Tuesday’s elections, pipeline advocates could count on a solid 57 votes in the Senate, including a dozen Democrats who have previously co-sponsored or expressed support for binding pro-Keystone legislation. Tuesday’s victories by Republican Senate candidates Cory Gardner in Colorado, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia, Mike Rounds in South Dakota and Joni Ernst in Iowa bring that total to 61.

And if Republicans are feeling ambitious, they could try to pull in four Democrats who previously supported a nonbinding resolution on Keystone during the 2013 budget debate: Chris Coons and Tom Carper of Delaware, Bill Nelson of Florida and Michael Bennet of Colorado. That gets them to 65.

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Going beyond that, in hopes of getting a veto-proof 67, would depend on how willing Republican leaders are to add sweeteners to a pipeline bill — and avoid divisive riders on issues like offshore drilling.

But the GOP is banking on not needing to worry about a veto. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus predicted Tuesday that a GOP-controlled Senate will send a Keystone bill to President Barack Obama as its second order of business, “and I actually think the president will sign the bill.”

Under the Democratic-led Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has kept almost all pro-Keystone legislation off the floor, including a bill that embattled Energy and Natural Resources Chairwoman Mary Landrieu (D-La.) had championed this summer while scrambling to hold onto her oil-state seat.

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Now the dynamic will be different.

The Keystone debate has dragged on for six years since developer TransCanada first sought a U.S. permit, with the administration finding ways to postpone its decision past the 2012 and then the 2014 elections. The project is now expected to cost the company $8 billion, up from an original estimate of $5.4 billion.

Environmentalists are already planning a new effort to emphasize the fierce opposition that the pipeline inspires among Obama’s liberal base, which would view approval of Keystone as a betrayal of the president’s promises to confront climate change. The Republican takeover on Capitol Hill could prove a boon to their cause by re-firing enthusiasm among the green grassroots.

“President Obama can’t approve the most massive oil infrastructure project in modern history, while claiming to be a climate champion,” May Boeve, executive director of the green group 350.org, said in a statement Tuesday night. “We know the Republicans are going to make Keystone a priority, but this isn’t their call.”

Environmentalists also took solace in incomplete election returns showing one of Keystone’s biggest supporters in the House, Nebraska Republican Rep. Lee Terry, trailing his Democratic challenger early Wednesday.

The White House earlier this year delayed its call on Keystone, which would ship 700,000-plus barrels of heavy Canadian crude to Gulf Coast refineries, until the Nebraska Supreme Court rules on a challenge to the constitutionality of a state law that gave its GOP governor power to approve a new route for the pipeline. That court decision is expected late this year or early next year.