Dalton McGuinty is arguably the best Ontario premier in more than a quarter of a century, leading the most progressive and activist government in the entire country.

Under his leadership, the Liberal government has carefully managed the economy despite a worldwide recession while at the same time introducing sweeping reforms on everything from early childhood learning to taxes and health care.

But it’s not enough. Barring a major screw-up by Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, McGuinty and his Liberals appear headed for certain defeat in the Oct. 6 election.

All the signs are bad for McGuinty.

A new Ipsos-Reid poll released last weekend showed the Conservatives with 40 per cent of decided Ontario voters, the Liberals with 34 per cent and the NDP with 20 per cent. Over the past year, polls have shown a steady rise in Tory support — all at the expense of the Liberals.

Worse for the Liberals, the survey suggested a virtual dead heat in the Toronto area, where the party has historically had a stranglehold on seats.

So why is McGuinty in big trouble if he’s doing such a good job? Party insiders say the reasons are many, not all of them of McGuinty’s doing.

First, Hudak is a “Teflon leader.” Like Toronto Mayor Rob Ford and Prime Minister Stephen Harper, his Conservative soulmates, nothing bad sticks to him.

Despite major policy flip-flops on the HST and all-day kindergarten, election promises that don’t add up, silly pledges like forcing prisoners into work gangs, nothing seems to hurt his popularity.

Even the Toronto Sun and National Post, perennial cheerleaders for the Conservatives, have taken to haranguing Hudak for his vague promises and weak leadership.

And yet his poll numbers keep rising.

Second, there’s a strong conservative wave now in Ontario and especially in the Toronto area. Ford rode that wave to victory in last fall’s Toronto mayoral race over George Smitherman, a former Ontario cabinet minister, and Harper rode it to a smashing win in last month’s federal election that saw the Liberals hang on to just 11 of 106 seats in the province.

Third, “stop the gravy train” will resonate with voters. As Ford fully understood, voters of all political stripes are truly angry at perceived government waste and mismanagement. Hudak will hammer away at McGuinty for the major scandals at eHealth and the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. During Wednesday night’s final Stanley Cup game, Hudak unleashed TV attack ads blasting McGuinty as “The Taxman” and raising the eHealth scandal.

Fourth, the rise of the NDP spells vote-splitting trouble. While Andrea Horwath is no Jack Layton, her party is certain to get more support in the wake of the federal NDP’s dramatic election breakthrough. Virtually every vote the NDP gains will come at the expense of the Liberals. That will assure Tory victories in ridings with serious three-way races.

Fifth, McGuinty has allowed Hudak to steal what should have been the Liberals’ leading campaign issue when he did nothing to top the Tory leader’s pledge to increase health-care spending by 6 per cent a year.

Sixth, a flood of “retirements” by MPPs, highlighted by news this week that Economic Development Minister Sandra Pupatello won’t run again, creates the unsavoury image of people deserting a sinking ship. At the same time, McGuinty is having trouble attracting high-profile candidates. Several defeated federal Liberal MPs, including Gerard Kennedy, Mark Holland and Dan McTeague, reportedly have told campaign organizers they won’t run because they don’t want to lose two elections in a row.

Can McGuinty turn it around? Maybe.

To his advantage, few people beyond the junkies are paying much attention yet. The real race, complete with huge TV ad campaigns, won’t start until late summer.

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The campaign will be critical, as both McGuinty and the Tories learned in 2007. In that election, the Conservatives thought they would win until their then-leader John Tory came out in support of controversial government funding for all religious schools.

McGuinty can only hope Hudak will similarly misjudge voter sentiment on a major issue — and that it will finally stick to the Teflon leader.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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