On the 26th February, I put up a survey on the /r/ukpolitics subreddit, which got 2460 responses.

Firstly, the breakdown by opinion on their preferred brexit outcome:

As is consistent with the sub, the vast majority of people do not want any form of Brexit.

Next, I asked how people would vote if there were a GE tomorrow, twice: the first time only with existing parties; the second where a TIG party is an option.

Without the TIG option:

With TIG:

Instantly, TIG took up more than 1 in 5 people who answered the survey, which isn’t particularly surprising given how low the popularity of the leaders of the main parties is.

To account for the differing starting sizes, we look at the percentage of each party vote that has jumped to TIG. The blue bar represents the percentage that stayed with the original party between the two votes; the red the percentage that switched to TIG.

However, this only looked at a single aspect: who would be willing to switch to them immediately. As they are not yet a party, and haven’t published much in the way of group-wide policies, it’s likely that a number of people might vote TIG at some future point, but consider it too early now. I asked people to basically split themselves into 3 groups: those with a decent chance of voting TIG in future, those with a small chance, and those with little-to-no chance of voting TIG (for whatever reason). Below is the split of original party votes (no TIG) and which of those 3 options they chose

Red: little-to-no chance of voting TIG

Orange: small chance of voting TIG

Green: decent chance of voting TIG

Only 7% of Lib Dem voters said there was little-to-no chance of voting TIG.

Next, were statements where people could agree or disagree with an idea. It was a 1 to 7 scale, where 1 was strongly disagree, 4 neither agree or disagree, 7 strongly agree. First, three statements that had little disagreement among political groups:

The Gang of 7 leaving had nothing to do with Corbyn announcing to support another vote (largely unsure) TIG are likely to cause a significant split among the Tories (largely disagree) TIG are likely to vanish at the next GE, never having achieved anything significant (largely agree)

another vote tory split TIG disappear Con 3.3 2.8 4.8 LD 3.4 3.6 4.7 Gr 3.6 3.6 5.1 SNP 3.7 3.2 5.4 Lab 4.1 3.3 5.5

Then, the slightly more divisive statements:

Although some voters may go with them, ultimately it is to Corbyn’s benefit that they left, as Labour will have less infighting and resistance to the new direction the membership have chosen

The Gang of 7’s choice to leave Labour was principled

Anti-semitism was not really a factor in why the “gang of 7” left labour



The comment about a “funny tinge” was not a serious racism concern, just a poor choice of words by a non-racist person

Finally, I took two of the groups: those with a small chance and those with a decent chance of voting TIG, and asked whether certain things would make them more or less likely to vote for TIG (1 much less, 4 neutral, 7 much more). The 5 changes were as follows:

TIG officially merge with the Lib Dems TIG choose Chuka Umunna as their leader After Brexit, TIG support Labour in forcing an early GE Tom Watson joins TIG TIG support legalising marijuana



For those with a small chance of voting TIG, the answers were:

For those with a decent chance of voting TIG: