Just like the dude with hamburger wrappers all over his cubicle who tells you that the vehicle you've taken immaculate care of for a decade -- never a ding, vacuuming regularly and changing the oil at precisely 3,000 miles -- has the same trade-in value as an impounded Yugo, college football folks are kind of awful at determining the worth of stuff.

We, "the experts," roll through summer believing we know exactly what's going to happen once the season starts. Then September is in the books and we geniuses end up feeling like one of those people on "Pawn Stars" who thinks Grandpappy's pocket watch (a gift from Wyatt Earp) is worth a hundred grand, only to have the bald guy say that Grandpappy actually got it from a vending machine at Golden Corral -- and it's worth three bucks.

So, remember all that . . . uh, stuff we said and wrote in August . . . and after Week 1 . . . and 2 . . . and 3? I've done the research on just what we overestimated and underestimated. I feel like Gil Grissom. If you're an Oregon fan, or an Auburn fan or a UT fan (yes, both), grab a Goody's headache powder and read ahead.

WE TOTALLY OVERESTIMATED . . .

The Buckeyes' win over the Hokies doesn't look so hot anymore. James Guillory/USA TODAY Sports

Oregon's "plug-and-play" ability at quarterback: For nearly two decades, the Ducks have been able to replace quarterbacks with relative ease -- from Akili Smith to A.J. Feeley to Joey Harrington to Kellen Clemens to Dennis Dixon to Jeremiah Masoli to Darron Thomas to Marcus Mariota, with only one losing season -- thanks to a system that produces points in a lot of different ways. That run of smooth transitions appears to have come to an abrupt halt, at least temporarily. But before people in Eugene start calling for Mark Helfrich's head, this season's struggles are much less of an insult to the coach as they are a testament to just how good Mariota was. A glance at history tells us recent teams who are replacing Heisman winners behind center tend to trip and fall, no matter who they are. In the years following the departure of Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel, the programs they left behind all finished with an 8-5 record. All of them. Looking ahead at Oregon's remaining schedule, that streaks seems safe.

Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson: He's a great kid who has handled his demotion with great poise in the face of a lot of noise. But our preseason chorus of "so many teams have questions at quarterback, but NOT AUBURN" was a Reggie Jackson-like swing and miss.

That special teams are special: Well, they have been, just not in the way that coaches would prefer, requiring too much special attention. The emergence of the #CollegeKickers on our social media timelines isn't by accident. And it isn't a compliment. Perhaps the only solace that Texas fans can take in the Longhorns' stunningly horrid kicking game performance (it has lost them two straight) is that they are far from alone.

East Coast, meet Paul Perkins and the Bruins. Casey Sapio/USA TODAY Sports

The importance of an early 'big' win: The wow factor of Michigan State's victory over Oregon continues to erode, as does Ohio State's win at Virginia Tech. For now, those wins are enough to keep the Big Ten mastheads Nos. 1 and 2. But when the College Football Playoff committee votes for the first time, a meeting that's still more than a month away, will it value the weight, emotion and ranking of those victories at the time, or will the real-time loss of luster subtract style points? I mean, Virginia Tech lost to ECU, and Oregon's only wins so far are against an FCS team and Georgia State Not Southern. (OK, shameless Bottom 10 plug.)

Progress of rebuilding projects: Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, even post-Chizik Auburn . . . this is a list that continues to grow. In Knoxville, Butch Jones has long preached "brick by brick." Turns out those bricks are heavier than we -- and especially he -- realized.

Coaches' ability to do math: The recalibration of the brick scale is second only to the need to do some remedial scoreboard math lessons. Not to keep picking on Jones, but, um ... why would you not go for two?

The deliciousness of pot (during the season): OK, we didn't overestimate it. But several players have. Full disclosure: I have zero experience in this area. I swear. But I have plenty of friends who have inhaled. And even the highest of those friends can't believe guys such as Ohio State's Joey Bosa and Florida's Treon Harris would be willing to risk playing in the biggest games of their seasons, not to mention the national embarrassment and the now-inevitable character questions that will be asked by every NFL team rep in every single pre-draft interview. In the social media age, there are no secrets. So, kids, "just say no" isn't just saying no to the guy passing you a fatty at a frat party, it's also saying no to wearing sweatpants instead of shoulder pads on Saturdays and saying no to costing yourself dollars on Sundays.

WE TOTALLY UNDERESTIMATED . . .

Harbaugh knows a thing or two about recruiting. Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

The UCLA Bruins: If we're being honest (and I always try to be), then I still have my long-term questions about a team that's led by a freshman QB and keeps sending defensive players to the infirmary. But while no one heading into the season believed that the Pac-12 was underestimated, it was very easy to find people who wondered aloud if the Bruins would indeed be the team with the best shot of representing that conference in the playoff. Those votes also were spread out among Oregon, Stanford, USC, Arizona State and Arizona. There's still a lot of work to do for UCLA, but with nearly all of those teams, plus Cal and Utah, remaining on the schedule, an undefeated record would end up creating a playoff résumé that might very well be second to none.

How great these running backs are, especially the dude at LSU: While the bear's share of attention at UCLA has been on Josh Rosen, the real hero in Westwood is Paul Perkins, who's already over halfway to 1,000 yards after four games. Meanwhile, LSU's Leonard Fournette just posted the first consecutive 200-yard games in LSU history, and Nick Chubb just equaled Herschel Walker's record for 100-yard games at Georgia. Add Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott, Florida State's Dalvin Cook, Utah's Devontae Booker, Arizona's Nick Wilson, Notre Dame's C.J. Prosise, and a ton of guys at smaller schools (Indiana's Jordan Howard, y'all!), and the days of NFL teams passing on running backs in the first round would appear to be over, at least in the short term.

Losing Tom Herman (and Chad Morris): The man who navigated Ohio State's offense through three QBs en route to a national championship is now the head coach at Houston. The Cougars are 3-0. Ohio State is also undefeated, but is winning ugly with two of those three quarterbacks playing quarterback and the other playing wide receiver. Meanwhile, Clemson's would-be Heisman candidate QB Deshaun Watson looks a bit lost without Morris, who left for the SMU job. The Mustangs, who battled for the Bottom 10 championship one year ago, are 1-3 but averaging 454 yards and 33.5 points per game. In 2014, they never scored 33 points in a game.

One truly is the loneliest number. Just ask the Vols. Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports

The Michigan Wolverines: Speaking of Ohio State, a funny thing happened on our march to the Nov. 21 Game of the Century of this Season, when the Buckeyes welcome Michigan State to town. It turns out the maize and blue team hosting the Spartans on Oct. 17 might be way more improved (way faster) than we expected. That Utah loss keeps looking better and better.

OK, enough of that. I could go on all day. It has been that kind of season. But it's time to get on with the field-flipping.

Sure, Trevone Boykin can sling it, but Josh Doctson is making him look awfully good. AP Photo/LM Otero

Big Orange crushed

Of all the games played in FBS football this season, only three have been lost when leading by at least 13 points in the fourth quarter. Tennessee accounts for two of those losses (Oklahoma and Florida).

This might make my high school history teacher actually like football

Delaware running back Thomas Jefferson rushed for 163 yards and two TDs against UNC, while Army wide receiver Edgar Allen Poe hauled in a TD catch against Eastern Michigan. One has to wonder why Jefferson isn't playing for Virginia. (Maybe James Madison? Too confusing?) Or whether the Ravens should consider drafting Poe?

The Tommy West Best News Conference of the Week Award: Mark Whipple, Massachusetts

After hanging with Notre Dame for a little bit, Bottom 10 resident UMass was throttled 62-27 by the Fighting Irish. Afterward Whipple explained the loss: "Their varsity was better than our varsity. Their JV was better than our JV ... we'll take the money and run." That money was a million dollars. (BTW, why is this award named for Tommy West? This is why.)

The Frank Reich Backup QB of the Week Award: James Summers, East Carolina

As the rainfall grew sloppier throughout North Carolina, ECU coach Ruffin McNeill shelved the Pirates' Air Raid and went ground-and-pound against Virginia Tech, replacing starter Blake Kemp with Summers. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound junior broke off multiple long runs, including a signature 41-yard dash that served as the exclamation point of a 169-yard, two-score rushing day, added to 110 yards passing, in a 35-28 win over the Hokies. Added to Kemp's 9-of-12, 118-yard, 1 TD/1 INT first half, the Pirates might be developing a thunder-and-lightning combo.

The Shane Falco Great off the Bench but Still Lost Award: Hayden Moore, Cincinnati

Moore came off the bench in an incredibly difficult situation, taking over the Bearcats' offense against Memphis on the national Thursday night stage, subbing for Gunner Kiel after the team leader left the Liberty Bowl in an ambulance via a horrifying first-quarter hit. The freshman set a Cincinnati record with 557 passing yards, adding four TDs and a holding his own in a 53-46 loss that produced 1,322 total yards and a dozen lead changes. Honorable Mention: Jerrard Randall, Arizona. Like Kiel, an injury to Wildcats starter Anu Solomon (though not nearly as scary) had just sucked the life out of the stadium. Randall solved that problem with his first snap, a 39-yard TD dash that you can see (and hear) here.

Speaking of scary injuries...

When Georgia fans try to convince me that coach Mark Richt should be fired, I just shake my head. Why? Because all the guy does is win games. And he keeps the locker room clean by throwing embarrassing idiots off the team. And he always handles situations like Saturday's injury to Southern wide receiver Devon Gales with tremendous class.

The Comeback of the Week Award (also named for Frank Reich): The Florida Gators.

There were plenty of candidates this weekend (seems like there are plenty every weekend these days), most notably TCU and Oklahoma State. Per ESPN Stats & Information's fascinating, always-changing win probability percentage, the Horned Frogs' chances dropped to 24 percent early in the fourth quarter and the Cowboys' went as low as 21 percent. Both won in the final two minutes. But when the Gators trailed Tennessee by a touchdown inside the final two minutes, their win probability plummeted all the way to 6 percent. One play later, they'd reversed, and they'd added 94 percent.

Rumblin', stumblin', bumblin' ... it took him a while, but Penn State's Austin Johnson did find the end zone. AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

The guy you should know about but probably don't: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

Most of the attention in Fort Worth continues to focus on QB Trevone Boykin, and deservedly so. The expected Heisman finalist posted a 34-of-54, 485-yard, four-touchdown day through the air against Texas Tech. But the man who is turning a lot of those throws into big gains is Doctson. On Saturday, he hauled in 18 catches for 267 yards and three of those TDs. Honorable Mention: Brandon Doughty, QB, Western Kentucky. Doughty hung 457 yards and six TDs with no INTs on Miami (Ohio). That's his second 450/6/0 game in two years, which matches the entirety of the other FBS QBs combined.

The team you should know about but probably don't: The NC State Wolfpack.

NC State is among a surprisingly large group of surprisingly undefeated teams, quietly throttling South Alabama 63-13 to reach 4-0. It was the Wolfpack's highest single-game point total since 2002, when some guy named Philip Rivers was the quarterback. Granted, NC State hasn't played anyone (no offense, Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion or South Alabama), but now the Pack starts ACC play. And a team that can move the ball with regularity has a legit chance to win America's banana peel conference, especially with Clemson coming to Raleigh on Halloween.

The game(s) you should be psyched for but probably aren't: The Big Ten Nooners

No, Minnesota at Northwestern and Iowa at Wisconsin aren't nationally sexy, but both games could have a huge impact on what happens to the Big Ten come January. If we learned anything about the College Football Playoff selection committee, it's that the members love strength of schedule. As the rest of college football continues to beat each other up like a bunkhouse stampede, the chances of a two-loss Power 5 conference champion, maybe even a couple, continue to linger. If that happens and the Big Ten champ's only loss is via a Game of the Century No. 1 vs. No. 2 Ohio State-Michigan State throwdown, then the success and resulting image of the middle of the conference will become more and more important when that game's loser makes its case to be one of the final four teams. And that's why these middle-rung conference games need to start making statements for them ... and not actually beat them.