I guess New Hampshire Republicans hate Rick Perry about as much as I do.

In a race where national pundits have declared Rick Perry and Mitt Romney the only two real contenders (with Perry the eventual nominee), a handful of other candidates are putting that thesis to rest.

Start with New Hampshire, which, this winter, will offer up the first primary in the 2012 presidential election season. The newest poll from New Hampshire, released today, shows a few results that are shocking the political world. Well, they're shocking some parts of the political world. People who pay attention to reality aren't nearly as surprised.

Here are the results:

Mitt Romney, 41%

Ron Paul, 14%

Jon Huntsman, 10%

Rick Perry, 8%

Michele Bachmann, 5%

Newt Gingrich 4%

Everyone else has no chance

It's hard to pick out which nugget is the most interesting. I guess we'll go in order.

First off, Ron Paul has moved firmly into second place in New Hampshire. This is huge. A second place finish would be almost as good as a first place finish, believe it or not, for Paul. Why? Well, Romney is expected to win, and win big, in New Hampshire. It's practically his home state, and frankly, Rick Perry type of Republicans scare the living hell out of New Hampshire voters. They remember the Bush years...and not fondly.

Second, Jon Huntsman has moved into third place. The guy was at 1 percent, polling somewhere between Rick Santorum and Bugs Bunny in the last poll, and now he's in third place? If he can duplicate, or even build on these numbers, Huntsman can make a Huckabee-type leap from a nobody to a major candidate.

Third, Paul and Huntsman moving up means bad news for Rick Perry. He really needs to get up to at least third, if not second, to make this a two-person race between Perry and Romney. To do so, he'd have to leap past Huntsman and Paul, neither of whom have much voter overlap with Perry. That is, people who support Huntsman are not likely to find Perry a compelling alternative. Same thing with Ron Paul.

What it means for 2012

First, a bit of caution. Rick Perry is still ahead in Iowa and leads nationally. He has enough regional support in the south, in particular Florida's early primary, where he could conceivably get blown out in New Hampshire and still win.

On the other hand, an 8 percent showing would be a disaster for Perry. Finishing behind Huntsman could be damning for the Texas Governor. Perry starts to lose any credibility as an "electable" candidate if he can't even get to 10 percent in an important state.

Second, Ron Paul is not going away, no matter how many times Fox News dismisses him or the other candidates laugh at him. He recently ruled out a third party run (although I think he could conceivably run as a Libertarian or an independent, if the GOP picks someone crazy) and he is retiring from Congress after this term.

If Paul can pick up more support in New Hampshire, and remain viable in Iowa, he could still potentially pull off what months ago seemed like a long-shot bid for the Oval Office. To win, he would need a few things: Perry would have to absolutely collapse nationwide, similar to how he has in Hew Hampshire; Paul would have to stay in second in New Hampshire and emerge as the "other" candidate (Huntsman finishing second would really put Paul out of contention); and, with Perry out of the race, Paul would have to win the support of southern conservatives.

If he can do these three things, Ron Paul may be able to postpone retirement for four (or eight?) more years. Assuming, of course, Sarah Palin doesn't jump in the race and muck up all the positioning.

Another thing working in Paul's favor are open primary states. Paul, despite being a libertarian (and characterized as on the far right) actually has a good deal of support among lefty types. Although I disagree with many of his policy stances, I don't think he is purposefully malicious toward poor people or anything like that. He is clearly an honest broker, a thoughtful person, and operates with honor and integrity. He cares deeply about liberty and he is against war. Those are all messages that transcend political lines. He could easily pick up Democratic support in open primary states.

Third, Jon Huntsman? Wow. I've spoken to my Democratic party friends, and he is the most tolerable pick among them for president. This could boost Huntsman's slim chances, particularly as the GOP stops screwing around and starts to focus on which candidate can best beat Obama in 2012, as opposed to which candidate can beat up the other candidates in 2011.

Of course, there is still a long way to go, and many, many debates, commercials, and candidate changes to go before anyone casts a ballot that matters. In fact, there's another debate tonight (9 pm EST) sponsored by Fox News, Google, and the Florida Republican Party.

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