BEFORE RESIGNATIONS

AFTER 15 RESIGNATIONS : 12 Cong + 3 JD (S)

IF NONE OF THE 15 MLAS WITHDRAW THEIR RESIGNATIONS

IF SPEAKER DISQUALIFIES INDEPENDENT MEMBER R SHANKAR, AND THE BSP MEMBER GOES WITH THE COALITION

AND WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO BEING SAME, IF FOUR REBEL MLAS RETURN

NEW DELHI: The Supreme Court (SC) on Wednesday left it to the Karnataka assembly speaker KR Ramesh Kumar to decide on the resignations of the 15 rebel Congress and Janata Dal (S) MLAs but ordered that they should not be compelled to attend the proceedings of the state Assembly. The speaker said he would conduct himself “responsibly in accordance with constitutional principles”.The interim order though wouldn't have been good news for HD Kumaraswamy as his Congress-JD(S) government prepares to face a floor test in the Vidhana Soudha today. That’s because by granting the rebel MLAs the liberty to skip the trust vote, the SC has in effect ensured that the party whip cannot force them to be present, and thereby face the threat of disqualification if they don't vote as per their party line.Remember, if the lawmakers are disqualified, they must be re-elected and can't become ministers. A resignation, on the other hand, allows lawmakers to become ministers easily if the BJP comes to power. They will have six months to seek re-election. Now, on to the math:BJP: 105, Congress: 80 (including speaker + nominated member), JD(S): 37, Independents: 2, BSP: 1; Total: 225BJP: 105, Congress: 68, JD(S): 34, Independents: 2, BSP: 1; Total 210, For majority: 106As of now, the two independents have pledged support to BJP, taking its strength to 107. However, the BSP member is still undecided. And that throws up these 'floor' scenarios for today:BJP: 107; Coalition: 102; BSP: 1; Total strength: 210, For majority: 106BJP: 106; Coalition: 103; Total strength: 209, For majority: 105BJP: 106, Coalition: 107 (with speaker’s vote); Total strength: 213, For majority: 107The Congress-JD(S) alliance is, in fact, banking on Congress Legislature Party leader Siddaramaiah ’s loyalists — ST Somashekar, Byrathi Basavaraj and N Muniratna — changing their stances and returning to Bengaluru (from Mumbai’s Renaissance Hotel where they are currently holed up). It is also confident that senior Congress leader R Ramalinga Reddy will vote in favour of the HD Kumaraswamy government.