Twenty-two percent of Republicans say Mike Pence is their first choice to be the next GOP nominee if Hillary Clinton triumphs in November. | Getty POLITICO/Morning Consult poll: Pence leads 2020 field after strong debate

Mike Pence’s national political stock has skyrocketed since Tuesday night’s debate, and the Indiana governor is now the favorite to top the 2020 Republican presidential ticket if Donald Trump loses.

Twenty-two percent of Republicans say Pence is their No. 1 choice to be the next GOP nominee if Hillary Clinton knocks off Trump in November. Pence is beating Speaker Paul Ryan and Trump himself by nine percentage points, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll of 1,989 registered voters this week. Twelve percent of Republicans polled said they’d like to see Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) run again, 11 percent favor Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and just 7 percent are holding out hope Ohio Gov. John Kasich mounts another bid.


Pence’s meteoric rise in the eyes of Republicans comes after he notched a convincing victory in the only vice presidential debate Tuesday night at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia. Thirty-eight percent of voters said he beat Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, while just 20 percent said Kaine won. Pence’s favorable ratings shot up seven percentage points, as well. But Pence did Trump no favors: An astounding 84 percent said the 90-minute tit-for-tat would not change their vote.

"Even though the VP debate had about half the audience of the presidential debate, both Mike Pence and Tim Kaine have seen their name recognition go up significantly," said Morning Consult co-founder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp. "The news is much better for Pence, though. Not only do more voters think he won the debate, his favorability now sits 10 points higher than Kaine's."

Voters were split on moderator Elaine Quijano’s performance, with 13 percent saying she did an “excellent” and 29 percent saying she did a “good” job. Thirty-three percent said her performance was “only fair,” and 21 percent said it was “poor.” Republicans were somewhat more likely to have a negative assessment.

Pence’s rise comes just one month before Election Day, and as Clinton and Kaine continue to take a commanding lead in a broad range of national polling. Trump will have the chance for a course correction, of sorts, on Sunday night during a town-hall debate at Washington University in St. Louis.

Despite the Beltway narrative that voters would prefer Kaine and Pence to be atop the ticket, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows it’s a fantasy: Fifty-nine percent say they prefer Trump atop the ticket to Pence, and 84 percent say they want Clinton as the nominee, and not Kaine.

That’s not to say either Trump or Clinton is particularly popular. A shockingly high number of voters agree with Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), who recently said neither Trump nor Clinton is a role model for children. One in three say Clinton is a role model, and 17 percent say Trump is a role model for America’s youth. Fifty-six percent of Republicans say Trump is not a role model for kids.

As Democrats look ahead to their 2020 choices, there is a far and away favorite if Clinton loses: 28 percent say Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren should top the ticket.

The poll was conducted online from Oct. 5-6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Top lines: http://bit.ly/2dW4XXo Crosstabs: http://bit.ly/2dOopop

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.