Following several quiet weekends at the movies, Universal’s Fifty Shades Freed hopes to send off the trilogy with solid numbers, while Peter Rabbit and The 15:17 to Paris attempt to counter-program by appealing to drastically different audiences.

Fifty Shades Freed is the final film in the franchise, and has pushed this angle quite a bit in the advertising campaign (including the somewhat cringe-inducing tagline of ‘Don’t Miss the Climax) as well as several action sequences that seemed rather out of place in the trailers. Critics have universally rejected the film with just 14% on Rotten Tomatoes, but both of the previous Shades films managed to turn a strong profit with similar reception, mostly thanks to strong overseas results. Assuming nothing goes drastically wrong, Freed will become the first film to open with over $30M since Jumanji back in December.

Sony is opening their hybrid live action-animated Peter Rabbit this weekend, and seems to be targeting an opening in the high-teens range. With a budget of $50M and a surprisingly strong 68% on Rotten Tomatoes, this could shape up as somewhat of a sleeper hit, although the decision to release this in February as opposed to closer to Easter does seem a bit questionable.

Finally, Warner Brothers will target older demographics with Clint Eastwood’s $30M action drama The 15:17 to Paris, based on true events and marketed with the aspect of casting the real heroes of the event as themselves in the film. Shockingly, the film has received very negative reviews – currently sitting at just 23% on Rotten Tomatoes, or the lowest score for an Eastwood directed film since 1990’s The Rookie. This means that Peter Rabbit has a score nearly triple that of The 15:17 to Paris, which is likely the result of the Cloverfield Paradox ripping a hole in spacetime. Adult dramas are hit by negative reviews harder than basically any other drama, meaning the film will struggle to get past $15M for the weekend, even with Eastwood’s built in fanbase.

Among the holdovers, Winchester will likely see a very steep drop off with three new wide releases and terrible word of mouth. Jumanji and The Greatest Showman should continue holding strong, while Maze Runner: The Death Cure will likely continue its steady decline.

Predictions

Fifty Shades Freed – $37.5M Peter Rabbit – $17.5M The 15:17 to Paris – $13M Jumanji – $8.2M The Greatest Showman – $6.5M