Stakes high for both parties, as Tuesday outcome sets stage for 2018 midterms

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — National political leaders made last-ditch efforts to woo voters in the Alabama Senate race Monday, as the candidates made their final arguments in a pivotal special election that has attracted more than $41 million in spending.

Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden recorded robocalls for Democrat Doug Jones, while President Donald Trump recorded an appeal for Republican Roy Moore.

"If Alabama elects liberal Democrat Doug Jones, all of our progress will be stopped cold," Trump said in his recorded message.

The stakes were high for both parties, as the outcome will likely set the stage for the 2018 midterm elections. A win in the deep south for Democrats, the first in an Alabama Senate race since 1992, would be a rebuke to Trump and his former adviser Steve Bannon, who have promoted Moore over the objections of establishment Republicans.

The victory would lend credibility to Democratic efforts to regain control of the Senate. "The Democratic path to a Senate majority in 2018 involves a miracle somewhere," says Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "And we may be on the cusp of a Democratic miracle in Alabama."

A win for Moore, by contrast, would weaken the hand of mainstream Republicans, who have struggled to broaden the appeal of the party's brand heading into the midterms. Moore, a former state Supreme Court judge, has campaigned on a platform of opposing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, a Republican who was born in Alabama, also released a statement encouraging people to vote, without naming the candidate she preferred.

"These critical times require us to come together to reject bigotry, sexism, and intolerance," she wrote, before adding that voters should insist on leaders who "are dignified, decent, and respectful of the values we hold dear."

Meanwhile, a Republican National Committeewoman from Nebraska, Joyce Simmons, announced that she has resigned her post in protest of her party's continued support of Moore, who has been accused by multiple women of sexual misconduct when they were teenagers and Moore was in his 30s.

"I strongly disagree with the recent RNC financial support directed to the Alabama Republican Party for use in the Roy Moore race," Simmons said in an email to party leaders, who were first informed Friday of her decision. "There is much I could say about this situation, but I will defer to this weekend's comments by Senator Shelby."

Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who voted for a write-in candidate, said Sunday that he found Moore's accusers to be "believable" and that Moore would not represent the state well.

"I think Alabama deserves better," Shelby said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union."

Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill expects only about 25 percent of eligible voters to cast a ballot in the special election, making the race difficult to predict. Three new polls released Monday showed dramatically different results, based on different projections of who would vote.

An automated poll from Emerson College showed Moore with a nine-point advantage, while a poll from Fox News showed Jones with a 10-point advantage. A Monmouth University Poll showed the race about even.

"I'm hearing everything," said Brian Walsh, president of America First Action, an outside group that has spent more than $1.1 million on mail, television and digital ads to support Moore. "Nobody knows what the hell is going on right now."

Reports of the robocalls from Obama and Biden created some awkwardness for Jones, who has tried to project distance from the national party as he closes out his campaign. Though his campaign confirmed the calls, the candidate said he was not aware of them.

"I know that there have been a lot of robocalls that have been recorded. I don't know what's being used. That is just not something I'm doing," Jones said at a campaign stop at a local restaurant, where members of the media outnumbered customers.

Throughout his campaign, Jones has tried to thread a difficult needle, portraying himself as an independent figure who is unbeholden to party leaders in an attempt to win over Republicans. At the same time, he has relied on marquee national names to help boost Democratic turnout.

On Monday, Jones emphasized his willingness to appear before the media and claimed, without evidence, that Moore "was not even in the state of Alabama over this weekend."

Moore has kept a notably low profile on the campaign trail lately. He did not hold any publicly announced campaign events over the weekend.