The draft may be an inexact science. It is probably more artistic than mathematical. Still, there is data to be mined that reveals trends showing the best positions to draft early. The teams who best navigate this information will be ahead of the pack when it comes to maximizing draft return of investment. Looking at data from the last 10 years, clubs seem to get the best ROI if they select the draft’s first quarterback or its first offensive tackle.

‘Money 5’ is the term given to the NFL’s five most expensive, and by extension, most important positions of quarterback, edge rusher, left tackle, wide receiver and cornerback. Wasting premium picks is not an option. Not including the 2015 draft (too little information), Cowboys Wire dug into the last 10 draft classes to determine which of these five positions produces the best player the most often.

Using Pro-Football-Reference’s “Career AV” metric, which assigns a value to player performance across positions, we get a glimpse of career impact. The raw numbers are all available at the conclusion of this post.

Taking the draft’s first quarterback, or its first tackle, is relatively a guaranteed success story compared to other Money 5 positions.

Not only does taking the draft’s first quarterback or tackle provide the best player more often than the other three positions, it also busts far less frequently as well as comes closest to the best far more often.

The first quarterback taken ends up the best quarterback in the class 40% of the time. When the first QB chosen isn’t the best in the class, they perform at 76% the output of the QB who does earn that disctinction. The first QB chosen rarely ends up outside of the Top 3 at the position, just once in the 10-year study.

Tackle isn’t far behind, with the best going first 40% as well, with just two outside the Top 3 over 10 years. The other positions have far less success. Drafting a class’ first edge rusher or wide receiver is the least fruitful of the Money 5 positions.

What does it all mean? In general, the league is pretty good at pinpointing the best prospects at quarterback and tackle, while the other positions are like playing the lottery.

In a draft such as 2016, this could go a long way.

Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil will almost assuredly be worth the pick, relative to this draft class’ other tackles. So will the first quarterback off the board; whomever he may be, the team selecting him is likely making the best decision. But if Joey Bosa is the first edge rusher off the board? It’s more than likely he won’t end up as one of this draft’s better choices. In a year when the position is seen as down and unathletic, the team selecting Bosa (or another first-taken DE) could be in for the biggest disappointment.

Drafting Jalen Ramsey to play corner, like Dallas allegedly wants to do? Be prepared to move him to safety, or likely watch several other corners in this class outperform him.

The key word there, though, is likely.

As always, averages never tell the whole story. That’s all these are, averages. While the first cornerback or edge rusher rarely work out as the best, they still have entries ranked at the top amongst the 50 “firsts” from 2005-2014.

Two of the Top 10 first-at-positions over the last 10 classes have been cornerbacks, more than any position other than quarterback. That makes the cornerback position boom or bust.

With Dallas selecting fourth overall, and with their history of wanting to select the best player at his respective position for each draft, this research could be paramount.

As the most expensive positions, it is also a huge bonus to be able to hit on those positions in the NFL Draft. The draft is the only opportunity to get top-line talent at wholesale prices; free agency is about paying retail value. Getting elite return-on-investment from draft personnel at these positions allows team to spend more to keep elite talent at other positions, such as tight end, running back and others. Top money at those positions is less expensive, and it becomes a burden most teams can’t afford to pay top dollar at all of those spots.

This isn’t intended to stand alone as justification for going in any positional direction in the draft. It’s simply another tool of analysis; this one trying to grasp how well teams do in identifying the best future player at a given position.

By Draft Year

Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2014 ER Clowney 1 6 Mack 5 21 29% N T Robinson 2 12 Britt 64 18 67% N QB Bortles 3 19 Bridgewater 32 22 86% Y WR Watkins 4 17 Beckham 12 23 74% Y CB Gilbert 8 3 Breeland 102 12 25% N Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2013 ER Jordan 3 3 Ansah 5 26 12% N T Fisher 1 21 Bakhtiari 109 25 84% Y QB Manuel 16 9 Smith 39 14 64% Y WR Austin 8 16 Hopkins 27 25 64% N CB Milliner 9 6 Trufant 22 19 32% N Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2012 ER Irvin 15 24 Jones, Ch 21 31 77% Y T Kalil 4 32 Kalil 4 32 100% Y QB Luck 1 45 Wilson 75 65 69% Y WR Blackmon 5 9 Hilton 92 36 25% N CB Claiborne 6 12 Jenkins, J 39 25 48% N Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2011 ER Miller 2 58 Watt 11 81 72% Y T Smith,T 9 49 Smith, T 9 49 100% Y QB Newton 1 76 Newton 1 76 100% Y WR Green 4 53 Jones, J 6 54 98% Y CB Peterson 5 63 Sherman 154 66 95% Y Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2010 ER Graham 13 14 Pierre-Paul 15 41 34% N T Williams, T 4 50 Williams, T 4 50 100% Y QB Bradford 1 33 Bradford 1 33 100% Y WR Thomas, D 22 53 Brown, A 195 60 88% Y CB Haden 7 37 Haden 7 37 100% Y Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2009 ER Maybin 11 5 Matthews 26 70 7% N T Smith, J 2 10 Vollmer 58 53 19% N QB Stafford 1 64 Stafford 1 64 100% Y WR Heyward-Bey 7 21 Wallace 84 48 44% N CB Jenkins, M 14 40 Jenkins 14 40 100% Y Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2008 ER Long, C 2 42 Avril 92 43 98% Y T Long, J 1 53 Sitton 135 74 72% Y QB Ryan 3 96 Ryan 3 96 100% Y WR Avery 33 21 Jackson, D 49 60 35% N CB McKelvin 11 27 Talib 20 46 59% N Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2007 ER Adams, G 4 17 Woodley 46 56 30% N T Thomas, J 3 78 Thomas, J 3 78 100% Y QB Russell, J 1 6 Edwards 92 17 35% N WR Johnson, C 2 78 Johnson, C 2 78 100% Y CB Revis 14 86 Revis 14 86 100% Y Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2006 ER Williams, M 1 75 Hali 20 76 99% Y T Ferguson 4 56 Whitworth 55 79 71% Y QB Young 3 33 Cutler 11 83 40% Y WR Holmes 25 47 Marshall 119 81 58% N CB Hill 15 9 Cromartie 19 61 15% N Draft Year Position Class' First Player Draft Slot Career AV Class' Top Player Draft Slot Career AV First Player's Percentage of Top Players AV Is Top Pick in Top 3 of the class? 2005 ER Ware 11 99 Ware 11 99 100% Y T Brown 13 49 Roos 41 62 79% Y QB Smith, A 1 72 Rodgers 24 112 64% Y WR Edwards 3 41 White, R 27 88 47% N CB Jones, A 6 47 Rogers 9 49 96% Y

By Position