This fall the Conservatives could be in for a surprise majority. I know what you’re thinking: the polls don’t show that.

Here’s a few reasons why it could still happen.





1. Left-wing vote splitting

Remember when Jean Chretien won a slim majority in 1997? This was due in large part to a centre-right vote split between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party. In fact, throughout much of modern Canadian history, having two parties on the right of the political spectrum has divided the vote and allowed the Liberals to come up the middle. In the 1970s it was the Social Credit Party that siphoned votes from Robert Stanfield and Joe Clark. In the 1990s it was Reform/Alliance versus the Progressive Conservatives.

The Liberals have always had to contend with the NDP on their left, but they have been different enough parties in the past that they didn’t necessarily cannibalize each other’s vote. This time it’s different.

The NDP and the Liberals are both firmly in the “new left” category of woke post-modernism lurching toward ‘anything goes’ socialism. The old blue-collar NDP is gone and Liberal centrists are staying home. Both parties are targeting the same voting blocks of feminists, students, environmentalists and woke urban hipsters.

On top of this, the Green Party is soaring in the polls due to a never-ending climate change fetish that has relentlessly been pushed on young people over the last twenty years. All that planting and now it's finally time to harvest. The Greens are players and they will siphon votes from both the NDP and the Liberals.