No deal in 2019 drops to an 18% chance

Brexit happening in 2019 drops to an 32% chance – was 60%+

UK to leave by October 31st down to a 20% chance

How the Supreme Court decision has had an impact

Inevitably today has seen a lot of activity on the Brexit linked betting markets as our charts of Betfair movements from Bedata.io show. The broad consensus of punters is that Brexit is less likely to happen in 2019.

There’ve been movements as well on who will succeed Johnson as PM with all the speculation of an imminent vote of no confidence in the Commons which would trigger the fourteen window when another government could be formed with a temporary PM to handle Brexit. Corbyn is the favourite but I’m less certain because of the antagonism he arouses amongst the other opposition parties.

My guess is that Jezzah might in this context be prepared to stand down but it would have to be for another Labour figure. Margaret Beckett sounds a possibility and the money has been going on her.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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