Production vs Upside: The Cam Reddish vs Jarrett Culver debate

Bulls Confidential’s Delane Mclurkin & Michael Walton II go back and forth on who you should select between the two wing prospects.

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Delane Mclurkin:

Jarrett Culver’s leadership and production make him the fourth best prospect in the ’19 class

If you would have asked me a month ago, who should the Bulls draft if they had the №4 overall pick, I probably would have said Cam Reddish in a heartbeat. But now with tournament season coming to its climax, I have definitely had a change of heart.

Culver has led his Texas Tech team (with no ESPN top 100 recruits) to the Final Four of the NCAA tournament, while Duke, led by three blue-chip recruit freshmen that were considered NBA prospects before they finished high school, was eliminated in the Elite Eight by Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Let’s also not forget that Duke had to win a series of incredibly close games to get that far in the first place.

Cameron Reddish was very impressive early in the regular season. Even though he was the third option, his rhythmic shooting release, size, ability to drive, and clutch late-game plays sold me early that he was one of the best draft prospects. Originally, I assumed he might have been the most skilled and fundamentally sound out of the Duke big three and he became the third option because he was a humble kid that did not need the ball in his hands a lot to prove he can make a huge impact.

Sadly, after his NCAA Tournament trial, I realized that he belongs in the second half of the lottery.

While Cam is still a very good player, especially as a freshman at Duke in the background of his two successors, he failed to take more than nine shots in each of his last five games of what is likely the end of his college career. Reddish was averaging 11.0 points and 4.0 rebounds in his three-game NCAA Tournament stint, and he did not make his presence felt as his docile playing style hurt his draft stock.

Culver, on the other hand, has benefited heavily from his NCAA Tournament play, leading his team so far, averaging 22.4 PPG over his five NCAA tourney games. His aggressiveness in getting to the basket has been incredibly impressive, and he is averaging 6.75 free throws per game over that five game stretch.

Even though I hate to succumb to recency bias, his five-game run in the NCAA tourney is enough to push him above Reddish at this point. Culver has the leadership characteristics, size, ability to forcefully impact a game, and will. His pull-up jumper, improving handle and defensive intensity will serve him well at the next level.

Culver is not the most explosive athlete, but he has more than enough burst and is currently hitting an elite 68.4 percent of his shots at the rim per Hoop-Math, a better figure than Cam Reddish (and RJ Barrett for that matter).

I was originally reluctant on Jarrett Culver and I had him as high as №8 overall because of his combination of lack of explosion, athleticism, and passing before the conference tournament. But playing on the big stage and winning in a convincing manner easily helps you forget about those factors and the intangible qualities he brings overpowers his weaknesses.

Culver has shown that he can navigate the pick-and-roll and that he can score in isolation situations, which should smoothly translate to the NBA game. Overall, the fact that Culver has shown better finishing, flashed a better defensive IQ and played a greater leadership.

His passing has impressed, and he raised his assist per game average by a full two dimes per game.

The 2018–19 Big 12 Player of the Year averaged 18.9 PPG, 6.4 RPB, 3.7 APG and shot 47.6 percent from the field. He may not have the flashiest moves, and he STILL doesn’t get enough national attention, but Culver’s production and attitude is enough to make him the fourth best prospect in this draft behind the clear Zion-Ja-RJ trio.

Michael Walton II:

If you want a high-upside pick rather than a safe one, Cam Reddish is your guy

Cam Reddish obviously did not have the season we all anticipated. But even with the ups-and-downs, worrying numbers and injury woes, I would take Reddish’s upside over Culver’s production in a heartbeat.

After being one of the more elite prospects coming out of high school — and rightfully so — Reddish did not get the college experience he thought he would. After being the first signee of the Big three to select Duke, Reddish was joined by Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, which all but solidified his role as a 3-and-D role player, rather than a ball-dominant point-forward who could switch between being on the ball and spotting up around the 3-point line.

The problem is: Reddish did not excel at any of the things that were supposed to be his strong suits in a reduced role.

No we have to take into account that these young athletes are barely removed from high school and have a ton of pressure on them at Duke, with the ESPN+ programs and everything else that surrounded this year’s high-profile squad. But even with all that Reddish’s year was concerning. He barely got to the rim (only 19.0 percent of his shots) and when he did he converted at 51.2 percent, easily the worst mark on the team.

He was aggressive with his 3-point attempts, getting up 7.4 3-pointers per game compared to only 4.2 attempts per game from Jarrett Culver. Not only was Reddish way more aggressive than Culver from the 3-point line, he was also a better shooter percentage-wise — 33.3 percent for Reddish vs 31.8 percent from 3-point range for Culver — despite not playing up to his high standards.

Over the six-game stretch that Zion Williamson was out, Reddish averaged 16.1 PPG but still didn’t shoot a great percentage. But the Williamson-less Blue Devils gave us a better look at what Reddish could do with room to operate.

In Duke’s win over Miami on March 2, Reddish scored 19 points on 50 percent shooting from the field, including hitting 5/8 shots in the paint and 2/6 from the 3-point line.

Reddish will be able to score at the NBA level off of his jumper alone, but if a coaching staff works with him intensely on getting to the basket and showing confidence while embracing contacting, the sky’s the limit on the offensive end of the floor. And when you factor in the immense playmaking skills he flashed as point-forward before his time at Duke, Reddish definitely has the superior offensive upside.

But let’s assume he struggles forever at finishing at the rim and settles into being nothing more than a spot-up 3-point shooter at the NBA level. Even if we knew Reddish was destined to become nothing more than a solid “3-and-D” wing, I would take THAT over Culver at this point as well.

Cam Reddish is 6’8’’ with a great 7’1’’ wingspan, and when he is locked in, it is tough to do anything with him covering you.

The Bulls need more players who can guard out on the perimeter, and Reddish provides that, plus his length gives him the ability to block shots at an unusual rate for a wing. His 1.9 percent block rate is wild, a figure that compares well to the numbers of eventual Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade, who had an absolutely ludicrous 2.9 percent block rate in his freshman year at Marquette.

And again, I am discussing the defensive potential of a 19 year old who has offensive skill moves like this:

So yeah, I think that Reddish and Culver will both be solid NBA players, but I believe that money is a helluva motivator, and something tells me that we will see a much, much different Cam Reddish at the NBA level.