Donald Trump’s election has spurred a massive backlash from the left across the globe and it looks to be translating into electoral gains. Early evidence is not just from the US. France is close to electing a nearly singular government of the socialist left and broader Europe is trending distinctly away from the far right. 538 does a good job showing just how extensive this backlash has been. Special elections in the US provide evidence that the phenomena is domestic as well. While Republicans have been able to hold their seats so far, these were extremely safe districts that saw massive swings towards the Democrats. Another data point looks to be the upcoming election in Georgia over Tom Price’s seat, the current HHS director. For a seat that Republicans won by 23 points, a dead heat is a daunting sign.

These early struggles should not be dismissed. The GOP has a built in structural advantage thanks to its redistricting flexibility during the 2010 wave, but that won’t do much if the early voting shifts hold true. Yes, the opposition party usually does well during the midterms and special elections aren’t necessarily indicative of broader trends, but so far they have been consistent and carry a more important consequence, impeachment. If Democrats take the house in 2018, articles of impeachment will be drawn up. It does not matter what any investigation finds (or doesn’t find for that matter, *cough* Russia!), the Democrat’s anti-Trump hysteria is boundless. Without the Senate the effort will ultimately be futile, but its aim is to poison Trump’s reelection, not oust him from office. Republicans need to be governing with an eye on 2018. It looks to be a major tactical error in pushing an unpopular healthcare bill that will saddle them with the blame for the failing system. They should be looking at passing tax cuts and infrastructure investment. There’s an ongoing, no holds barred, effort to destroy Trump by the DC establishment and press; the GOP needs to focus on the more popular parts of its agenda to counter it.

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