2013 was the year that 800,000 people were lifted out of fuel poverty – by a change in the definition. As always, voters were subjected to their fair share of lies, damned lies – and these things. Here are the worst fudged stats of the year

The fudge



"Only crisis-hit Spain has higher numbers of young unemployed people than the UK." Ed Miliband

The truth

This is sleight of hand. Miliband's point, blokishly expressed in January for the benefit of Sun readers, was that "we are in the relegation zone when it comes to youth unemployment". And indeed, although comparative figures in this area are very wobbly (is a student with a summer job employed or not?), the comparison at the time showed that more under-25s were out of work in the UK than in any other European country, bar Spain. The trouble is that's meaningless. The UK has a lot more of everything than most European countries, because it has a lot more people than most European countries. What matters if you're making a comparison with other countries is not how many under-25s are unemployed, but what percentage of them. In that regard, the UK is 10th best out of 27. Or as Miliband might understand it, challenging for the Europa League.

Grant Shapps got his figures in a knot on the matter of incapacity benefit testing. Photograph: Christopher Thomond for the Guardian

The fudge

"Nearly a million people have come off incapacity benefit … before going for the test. They've taken themselves off." Grant Shapps

The truth

This is really, really wrong. The number, which Shapps was quoted using by the Sunday Telegraph in March, seemed to refer to the 873,000 new applicants for the Employment Support Allowance (which replaced incapacity benefit) who ended their claims between October 2008 and May 2012 (ie people who never had any disability benefits to come off anyway). In fact, between March 2011 and May 2012, 603,600 people receiving incapacity benefit were referred for tests in order to receive the ESA, and just 19,700 withdrew before undergoing them. Of those, moreover, many will have just recovered from their disability and so stopped claiming for it.

Michael Gove referred to statistics gathered by that notable source Premier Inn. Photograph: PA/Joe Giddens

The fudge

"Survey after survey has revealed disturbing historical ignorance, with one teenager in five believing Winston Churchill was a fictional character while 58% think Sherlock Holmes was real." Michael Gove

The truth

All that was actually revealed when Gove wrote this in the Daily Mail in March was his ignorance of how surveys work. When asked for the source of his claims by an enterprising former teacher called Janet Downs, his department sheepishly revealed that they included academically worthless research carried out by UKTV Gold and Premier Inn (13 years ago) for publicity purposes. Maths is not Gove's strong suit, of course. Last year he was asked how it was mathematically possible for all schools to exceed the national average, and replied: "By getting better all the time."

Iain Duncan Smith just couldn't wait to show how effective the benefits cap had been. Photograph: Getty Images/Oli Scarff

The fudge

"Already we've seen 8,000 people who would have been affected by the [benefits] cap move into jobs. This clearly demonstrates that the cap is having the desired impact." Iain Duncan Smith

The truth

We've seen no such thing. What Duncan Smith was referring to, in a press release in April, was the number of potentially affected people who had got jobs through job centres since they were told about the cap. This doesn't mean that being told about the cap was the reason for it, however. People find jobs in job centres all the time. Nor does it take account of how many people might have lost their jobs and become potentially affected by the cap in the same period. Perhaps it wasn't having any impact on them at all? Even the figures in Duncan Smith's own report contained a note explaining that they did not mean what he claimed. But, "I believe this to be true," he said anyway, when challenged on the subject. His faith was no protection against a telling-off from the UK Statistics Authority.

'Stop using the printer,' was Osborne's advice to the Crown Prosecution service. Photograph: PA/Chris Ison

The fudge

"The Crown Prosecution Service prints one million pieces of paper every day. In the age of the internet and emails that surely isn't necessary." George Osborne

The truth

As far as we know this number is accurate. It was mentioned as one of the proposals that Osborne favoured for saving money from the justice system. Certainly it sounds like just the kind of bureaucracy-blasting everyone approves of, yet how much difference would it make? Radio 4's magnificent statistics programme More or Less made an estimate. The CPS deals with around 1.5m cases each year, so it is printing roughly 250 pages per case. More Or Less reckons that must cost around £7m (£2m for the paper, £5m for the ink). This takes us to a total paperwork spend of £5 per case, not all which could actually be cut, of course. And some money might have to be spent on electronic systems to replace it. Even if every penny of those £5 were saved, moreover, it would still amount to just 1% of the whole reduction that the Ministry of Justice is required to come up with. They might be better off concentrating elsewhere.