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He noted that with money in the bank, incumbent candidates in most ridings and a long-standing organization in the city, the Tories have an advantage over the other parties.

But he expects many close races in the city’s 25 seats.

“A lot of races in Calgary will be PC-versus-someone-else fights,” said Valentin, noting that PC strength is more uniform while the other parties have pockets of support. “The PCs are going to be competitive in most (ridings), the Wildrose will be competitive in some and the NDP may be in a smaller amount.”

But Valentin said the NDP have one advantage — the party is so strong in Edmonton that Notley can afford to make a major push in Calgary.

“If Rachel Notley is able to build her support, you could see the math change,” he added.

Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras said that if polls are to be believed, it makes sense for party leaders to spend their time in Calgary with a week to go.

In one scenario, the PCs build out from their strength in the city to form a government. In another, gains by the Wildrose or NDP in the city allow one of those parties to break the Tories’ four-decade-old grip on power.

“The future of the Conservative party hinges on Calgary. If they dissolve in Calgary, if Fortress Calgary is invaded, then it’s going to be an awful night for the Tories,” said Taras.

A Wildrose strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, called the city “Battleground Calgary.”

“It’s all about Calgary. If the PCs turn it around in Calgary … they can still recover,“ said the strategist. “If they don’t turn it around in the next few days, this could be the end.”