All empires end. That is an indisputable fact. The only question is how they end.

The Soviet Empire fell apart without resistance, which was highly unusual.

The British Empire ended somewhat gracefully (with notable exceptions).

But generally, empires don't die in a dignified way.



By 1970, more than half of Portugal’s economic output was going toward wars of independence raging in Angola, Mozambique, and what was then Portuguese Guinea. They would all fall, their independence as much a liberation for Portugal proper as for the colonies.

But Portugal’s imperial implosion did not lead to its rebirth or any kind of social reconstruction. To this day, Portugal seems to be identified by its fallen greatness, once again a small rocky redoubt in Iberia.

Decades ago Paul Kennedy wrote a great book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. His main premise was that empires fall from military overstretch.

Last year the Pentagon made an important annoucement about the state of our Empire.



An extraordinary new Pentagon study has concluded that the U.S.-backed international order established after World War 2 is “fraying” and may even be “collapsing”, leading the United States to lose its position of “primacy” in world affairs.

The solution proposed to protect U.S. power in this new “post-primacy” environment is, however, more of the same: more surveillance, more propaganda (“strategic manipulation of perceptions”) and more military expansionism.

Empires are expensive. They can only be maintained through an efficient use of both carrot and stick.

The U.S. stopped using carrots decades ago.

Like a grade school bully, we only use sticks now.



Citizens across over 60 nations were asked: “Which country do you think is the greatest threat to peace in the world today?”

The US topped the list, with 24 percent of people believing America to be the biggest danger to peace. Pakistan came second, with 8 percent of the vote and was closely followed by China with 6 percent. Afghanistan, Iran, Israel and North Korea came in joint fourth place with 5 percent of the vote.

Interestingly, this poll was taken again three years later, but this time they rigged the poll.



However, on pages 23 and 24 of the pdf is shown the 30 countries that had been surveyed in this poll, in both 2013 and 2017, and most of these 30 nations were US allies; only Venezuela clearly was not. None of the 30 countries was an ally of either Russia or China (the other two countries offered as possibly being «a major threat»). And, yet, nonetheless, more respondents among the 30 sampled countries saw the US as «a major threat», than saw either Russia or China that way.

Even when rigging the poll by only asking our allies, people still see the U.S. as the greatest threat to world peace.

This does not bode well.

All empires die from within.

Naturally, corruption and empire go hand-in-hand. We are no exception.

Public pillaging of its citizens and extreme inequality are other characteristics of late-stage empires that we share.

I found this list of signs of late-stage empire, and a few other characteristics stood out.



6. Institutional memory and knowledge support "doing more of what worked in the past" even when it is clearly failing. 8. Incompetence is rewarded and competence punished. 12. The feedback from those tasked with doing the real work of the Empire is ignored as Elites and vested interests dominate decision-making.

Number 6 reminds me of Wall Street, and their determination to repeat all the same mistakes that led to 2008.

Number 8 is The Rule in Washington today for both political parties.

Number 12 is self-explanatory.

So how will America's Empire actually end?



The empire will limp along, steadily losing influence until the dollar is dropped as the world’s reserve currency, plunging the United States into a crippling depression and instantly forcing a massive contraction of its military machine.

Short of a sudden and widespread popular revolt, which does not seem likely, the death spiral appears unstoppable, meaning the United States as we know it will no longer exist within a decade or, at most, two. The global vacuum we leave behind will be filled by China, already establishing itself as an economic and military juggernaut, or perhaps there will be a multipolar world carved up among Russia, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and a few other states.

...Empires in decay embrace an almost willful suicide. Blinded by their hubris and unable to face the reality of their diminishing power, they retreat into a fantasy world where hard and unpleasant facts no longer intrude. They replace diplomacy, multilateralism and politics with unilateral threats and the blunt instrument of war.

Our empire rests on the shaky pedestal of having the world's reserve currency.

Without the demand for dollars we could not afford our over-sized military to bludgeon all rivals.

Which is why the efforts of China, Russia and Iran to create a separate, parallel financial system, outside of U.S. control is such a threat.

Interestingly, less than a day after Trump insulted Pakistan, they also joined the non-dollar financial block.

The petrodollar is still King for now, but the rest of the world might think twice about loaning us their savings after the next time we bail out Wall Street when they crash the economy again.

What will that look like?



For the majority of Americans, the 2020s will likely be remembered as a demoralizing decade of rising prices, stagnant wages, and fading international competitiveness. After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2030 the U.S. dollar eventually loses its special status as the world’s dominant reserve currency. Suddenly, there are punitive price increases for American imports ranging from clothing to computers. And the costs for all overseas activity surges as well, making travel for both tourists and troops prohibitive. Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. Under pressure at home and abroad, its forces begin to pull back from hundreds of overseas bases to a continental perimeter. Such a desperate move, however, comes too late. Faced with a fading superpower incapable of paying its bills, China, India, Iran, Russia, and other powers provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace.

We've been running massive trade deficits since the 1980's. It was never sustainable.

When the collapse finally comes, the ruling elites will default on every promise (yes, that means Social Security) and try to steal everything not nailed down (watch out 401k). Some sort of unrest will be inevitable.

The good news is that our empire is built upon bases, not colonies. So dismantling the empire can happen quickly.