The results: (A dash means that the candidate was not included in that week’s poll)

3/18 2/18 2/5 1/22 1/8 BERNIE SANDERS 38 44 13 12 11 ELIZABETH WARREN 12 10 17 18 22 Kamala Harris 11 15 27 27 14 BETO O’ROURKE 10 4 5 8 15 Pete Buttigieg 6 - - - - JAY INSLEE 3 1 - - - Amy Klobuchar 3 6 6 - - Cory Booker 2 2 3 2 3 Kirsten Gillibrand 1 - 1 - 1 John Hickenlooper 1 - - - - Joe Biden - 8 11 13 14 UNSURE 5 4 6 6 9 OTHER 8 2 4 5 9 (SAMPLE SIZE) n=52.5K n=56K n=42.2K n=28K n=35.5K

Bernie Sanders wins this week’s Daily Kos Straw Poll, coming in with 38 percent of the vote out of over 50,000 cast (down six points from his post-announcement high a month ago). Elizabeth Warren is back in second place (albeit at a distance), perhaps helped by her strong CNN forum performance? Her proposal for universal child care certainly is a winner. Kamala Harris dropped a bit to land just barely behind her in third place, with Beto O’Rourke not far behind her, definitely getting a boost out of his announcement last week. Buttigieg is the only other person cracking five percent and … does anyone really think he’ll stick around that high? He’s riding the high from a viral appearance at South by Southwest. I’d guess it’s temporary.

My sense is that, broadly speaking, Bernie, with his universal name ID, has little room to grow. Meanwhile, the threats to his candidacy are twofold: 1) Elizabeth Warren matches up ideologically, and can be a source of defections if he falters (or if his more virulent supporters drive people away), and 2) the nonideological part of Bernie’s base, those looking for a fresh new face untainted by the stench of the establishment, are favorably predisposed toward Beto (and Buttigieg could catch sustained fire). Those of you on political Twitter might have noticed that Bernie supporters have an especially pronounced hatred for Beto. Their tactics might be unproductive (hurling invective at detractors wins exactly zero new votes), but they’re not wrong to sense the threat. This poll further suggests that threat is real.