Enrollment on the University of Missouri’s Columbia campus is expected to decline more than 7 percent in the fall and budget cuts will require the elimination of up to 400 jobs, interim Chancellor Garnett Stokes said Monday at a budget forum.

The enrollment decline estimate is the first provided by MU officials for overall fall numbers. The university has already said it expects first-time freshman enrollment to decline by almost 18 percent.

For the school year that ended last week, enrollment at MU was 33,266, down 6.1 percent from the previous year’s record. If Stokes’ projection of a 7.4 percent decline is accurate, enrollment in the fall will be about 30,800, the lowest in nine years.

MU will cut jobs by eliminating vacant positions from the budget, which will be about half the total, Stokes said. The other half will be from retirements, not renewing annual contracts and formal layoffs. The total number of layoffs will be 100 or fewer, she said.

Overall, the university is planning to cut 12 percent from the academic and administrative operations budget, or about $55 million. About $24 million is to cover a funding shortfall because of lower tuition revenue and cuts in state support, materials presented on slides during the forum showed. Of the remainder, $7.7 million is for promised spending increases, including money for graduate students and diversity programs while the remainder is to create a pool of money for program investments.

While the directive for a 12 percent cut is to all general revenue spending, leaders of individual schools and campus departments have discretion how to apply it within their areas, Stokes said.

“This was our educated guess about where we needed to be to be able to try to prevent us from being in the same place again next year,” she said. “This institution has been in this place a lot. We have been making cuts year after year. It is time to do this differently.”

The budget plan is due at the UM System offices Friday. Campus plans will not be made public because they are tentative, Stokes said. UM System President Mun Choi plans to reveal his decisions on campus proposals on June 2.

The forum Monday afternoon was the first of two on campus before Stokes submits a budget plan Friday. The second forum will be at 9:30 a.m. today in Stotler Lounge of the Memorial Union.

The format was chosen, Stokes said after the forum, in order to present as many questions as possible during the two hours allotted.

Graduate students were out in force, with more than two dozen wearing red shirts to show their presence. They did not like the format, said Joe Moore, spokesman for the Coalition of Graduate Workers. Graduate assistants were happy to hear that MU will keep promises to increase stipends and pay health insurance but they worry that tuition waivers that are part of their compensation package may be cut, Moore said.

“There wasn’t an opportunity to solicit feedback,” he said. “It appears that the decisions are already made.”

An enrollment decline will cost MU about $16.6 million in tuition revenue. A proposed tuition increase of 2.1 percent will make up $7.3 million of that amount.

The university is having difficulty with graduate and undergraduate enrollment. Applications for graduate school are down almost 11 percent, said Jeni Hart, assistant vice provost for doctoral and graduate studies.

For undergraduate enrollment, the university in the past has tried to explain it as a combination of smaller high school graduating classes in Missouri, better recruitment by schools in other states and the aftermath of the November 2015 demonstrations and resignations of system President Tim Wolfe and Columbia campus Chancellor R. Bowen Loftin.

The university has studied the issue and now sees that it is almost all due to negative publicity since the demonstrations, said Pelema Morrice, vice provost for enrollment.

“It is clear from what we learned thus far that the vast majority of our undergraduate enrollment concerns are closely tied to our public perception issues throughout the state and throughout the country,” he said.

The room was packed, with almost all the 300 chairs filled and dozens lining the walls. Stokes did not take questions directly from anyone present. Instead, participants were asked to write down questions or submit them online. By doing so, Stokes avoided follow-up questions and heard no comments on any proposals or facts being presented.

Most of the budget information presented was general. Some examples of proposals for reorganization or cuts were discussed, such as already public plans to lay off 20 people in the operations division and to incorporate the Truman School of Public Affairs into the College of Arts and Science. Other ideas being considered include combing several departments into a School of Visual Arts, Stokes said.

Cutting administrative pay is not on the table, she said.

“There are leaders who would, in a heartbeat, say, ‘I will take a cut if it will save somebody’s job,’” Stokes said. “But I will tell you, as a strategy, in the long run, it has not been found to be the most effective strategy when you are thinking about the institution’s future.”

University operations that are not funded from tuition or state tax funds, such as Intercollegiate Athletics and MU Health Care, are not subject to the cut. Asked if those operations should contribute a portion of surpluses to the academic side, Stokes said that is under review.

“We are looking at auxiliary operations and their role in the campus’ future,” she said. “Nothing is off the table.”

rjkeller@columbiatribune.com

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