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“It will be several years before there is a viable recovery in prices … and the current pricing cycle will be characterized by a slower and lower recovery than in past cycles,” King wrote, while noting the current supply glut of 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day is the same as what it was in the aftermath of the financial crisis and before OPEC cut supply by almost 3 million barrels a day. And it will all be to the Saudis’ benefit.

What should be considered, said King, is that as other producing countries cut production in this low-price environment and demand grows — albeit more slowly — Saudi Arabia will boost its market share. The kingdom has not been shy about increasing production to record levels, aimed in part to protect itself from a coming increase in Iranian oil production.

The other piece to consider is that even if oil prices spike on the road to a full rebalancing of the market — possibly driven by conflicts in the Middle East that temporarily affect supply — production will increase from U.S. shale oil plays and effectively cap the price spike.

However, when the market does rebalance and prices strengthen, the Saudis will be the first to benefit, which might be one reason they’ve chosen to go to the debt markets. Borrowing at low interest rates, at terms that will coincide with prices going up, is not a bad strategy. It’s also a way to offset the draws from the foreign currency reserves, which some estimate to be taking place at a rate of $12 billion a month.