RRH Elections May 2018 Senate & Gubernatorial Rankings

Today we are releasing a mammoth, long-overdue double update to both our Senate and Governor Rankings. Here are the new maps:

Senate:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R CA (Feinstein)

CT (Murphy)

DE (Carper)

HI (Hirono)

ME (King)

MD (Cardin)

MA (Warren)

MN-K (Klobuchar)

NM (Heinrich)

NY (Gillibrand)

RI (Whitehouse)

VT (Sanders)

VA (Kaine)

WA (Cantwell) MI (Stabenow)

MN-S (Smith)

NJ (Menendez)

PA (Casey)

WI (Baldwin) MT (Tester)

OH (Brown) AZ (OPEN)

FL (Nelson)

IN (Donnelly)

MO (McCaskill)

NV (Heller)

ND (Heitkamp)

WV (Manchin)

TN (OPEN) TX (Cruz) MS-H (Hyde-Smith)

MS-W (Wicker)

NE (Fischer)

UT (OPEN)

WY (Barrasso)

Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. The nominal “Independents” Sanders and King are counted as Dems.

RRH Elections has made six changes to our Senate Ratings since our last post in February, five in favor of Democrats:

Maine Safe D from Likely D || Minnesota (Smith) Likely D from Lean D || Tennessee Lean R from Likely R || Virginia Safe D from Likely D || Wisconsin Likely D from Lean D

and one in favor of Republicans:

West Virginia Tossup from Lean D

We have also placed the Mississippi Senate Special on the board at Safe R. These rankings mean that are predicting a shift in the Senate of between R+5 and D+2.

Flip over for the full narratives!

Governor:

.



Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R CA (OPEN)

HI (Ige)

IL (Rauner)

NY (Cuomo)

OR (K. Brown)

PA (Wolf) LA ’19 (Edwards)

MN (OPEN)

NM (OPEN)

RI (Raimondo) AK (B. Walker)

CO (OPEN)

CT (OPEN)

FL (OPEN)

ME (OPEN)

MI (OPEN)

NV (OPEN)

WI (S. Walker) IA (Reynolds)

KS (OPEN)

KY ’19 (Bevin)

MS ’19 (OPEN)

OH (OPEN)

OK (OPEN) AZ (Ducey)

GA (OPEN)

MD (Hogan)

MA (Baker)

NH (Sununu)

SC (McMaster)

TN (OPEN)

VT (P. Scott) AL (Ivey)

AR (Hutchinson)

ID (OPEN)

NE (Ricketts)

SD (OPEN)

TX (Abbott)

WY (OPEN)

Bold denotes a projected flip; italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. The nominal “Independent” Bill Walker is counted as a Dem.

RRH Elections has made the following eight changes to our gubernatorial ratings since our last post in January, four in favor of Republicans:

Alabama Safe R from Likely R || Alaska Tossup from Lean I/D || Maryland Likely R from Lean R || New York Likely D from Safe D

And four in favor of Democrats:

Illinois Likely D from Lean D || Kentucky (2019) Lean R from Likely R || Pennsylvania Likely D from Lean D || Wisconsin Tossup from Lean R

These changes mean RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats of between R+1 and D+7.

Flip over for the full narratives!

Senate Rankings: (Thanks to BostonPatriot for writing the Senate narratives!)



1. Arizona Tossup (3)

The AZ-08 special election last month, where Rep. Debbie Lesko (R) was held to a 5-point win by an unspectacular Democrat in a district that Trump carried by 21, was a sign that Republicans are in significant trouble in the Grand Canyon State, where they are defending Jeff Flake’s (R) open seat. Democrats scored their strongest plausible recruit in Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D), who has won three terms in a light-blue suburban Phoenix district and pivoted from a far-left state legislative record to a fairly moderate voting history in Congress. Sinema’s greatest strength is her name recognition in Phoenix’s Maricopa County, the largest county in the state and generally the light-red engine that powers Arizona Republican victories. Conversely, Republican recruit Rep. Martha McSally (R) holds a district in Tucson, traditionally the state’s Democratic base, and is mostly unknown in Maricopa. McSally is a strong candidate in her own right, with a military background as the first woman to fly an Air Force combat mission, and a moderate voting record of her own. However, McSally faces a potentially damaging primary from two of the mixed nuts at the bottom of Arizona’s bag of trail mix: State Sen. Kelli Ward (R), who has involved herself in various conspiracy theories, nd pardoned convict Joe Arpaio (R). It’s actually to GOP’s benefit that both Ward and Arpaio are running rather than just one, as they appear likely to split the far-right vote and allow the electable McSally to win. In a normal environment, McSally vs. Sinema would be a strength-vs.-strength matchup with the lean of the state favoring McSally. But we’ve seen enough out of Arizona this year to mark this as the most likely seat to change hands in the fall.

2. North Dakota Tossup (5)

The GOP scored a recruiting coup when Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) reconsidered his initial decision to pass on the race and set up an A vs. A matchup with Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) on some of the reddest turf in the nation. Heitkamp is the owner of one of the most impressive Senate victories of this century, as she executed a campaign playbook based on retail politicking and nonpartisan issues to perfection to narrowly defeat Cramer’s predecessor in ND-AL, Rick Berg. Now, Heitkamp has to do it again with a 6-year voting record to defend in a state that swung significantly Republican from 2012 to 2016, and she has seen her approval numbers soften in recent polling. Two questions shape this race: first, can Cramer be a significantly better candidate than Berg was in 2012? Cramer was a major step up from the man he replaced in the race, State Sen. Tom Campbell (R), because he’s been elected statewide several times and is likely close to a household name. Berg, for his part, had been elected to only one term in Congress, and was criticized for being unprepared for a Senate race. Second, how much will the Democratic lean of the year reach North Dakota? The state is infrequently polled due to restrictive laws on robopollsters, and while Republicans have fared poorly in special elections in the Rust Belt and in #resistance-heavy areas, it’s an open question as to how well the GOP is holding up on the Plains in the age of Trump.

3. Nevada Tossup (1)

Nevada drops out of the top spot as Sen. Dean Heller (R) will no longer face a primary challenge from perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (R), who decided that three losses in 6 years was enough. Dodging a primary is helpful to Heller both in terms of funding and political positioning, as there is no longer any pressure on him from the right. But Heller still has a myriad of problems: he sports ugly approvals (with a fair amount of dissent from Republicans), he is the only incumbent Republican running in a Clinton state this year, and his opponent, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D), is scandal-free and has the backing of Harry Reid’s powerful turnout operation. Rosen is a first-termer who showed electoral chops by winning an open Trump seat in 2016 (albeit against Tarkanian), but her political skills are still largely unproven. Thus, this race may be more dependent on the national environment than most. If the Nevada electorate is only marginally Democratic, Heller has a good chance to win, as he did in 2012 as the lone bright spot on a brutal night for Senate Republicans. But if a true blue wave builds, it’s difficult to envision Heller overcoming his poor approvals to swim against the tide.

4. Indiana Tossup (4)

First-term Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) has positioned himself as a moderate and has the advantage of sitting in a more competitive red state than Heitkamp, but is less of a known political entity–while Heitkamp ran circles around an average Republican campaign, Donnelly ran a safe campaign and coasted into office on the self-destruction of Richard Mourdock (R), who has long since been sent to the political graveyard. For a time, it looked like Donnelly would again benefit from a divisive Republican primary, as GOP frontrunners Reps. Luke Messer (R) and Todd Rokita (R) annihilated each other over residency, old DUI arrests, and various other unpleasantries. However, businessman and former State Rep. Mike Braun (R) blew past both Messer and Rokita in the primary, and may be a tougher challenger for Donnelly than either frontrunner would have been as he can credibly run as a Washington outsider. Braun is a relatively untested candidate, and while his negatives never reached those of Messer or Rokita, he has work to do to win over the supporters of his primary opponents. If he proves to be a quality challenger, Donnelly will face a significantly more difficult race than he did in 2012, and may need a strong Democratic wave to save him.

5. Missouri Tossup (2)

Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D) approval numbers are what they are at this point–not good–and have been that way for 7 years now, but she’s among the best in the business at creating her own luck, and with 6 months to go is giving herself a chance to win another unlikely re-election. Republicans recruited AG Josh Hawley (R) and cleared the field for the conservative rising star, who is fresh off a stronger than expected MO-AG victory in 2016. Hawley has not gotten off to a good start as a candidate, posting poor fundraising totals and drawing criticism for running an uninspired campaign. Meanwhile, Missouri political eyes have been diverted to the spectacular implosion of Gov. Eric Greitens (R) under the weight of various personal (sex and financial) scandals. The Greitens saga has dominated political headlines in the state all year and particularly over the last few weeks, as the state legislature has convened a special session to consider impeachment. Although most Republicans (voters and officeholders alike) want Greitens to leave office, the impeachment process has been divisive within the party, and the longer it drags on, the tougher it will be for Hawley to both draw attention back to the Senate race and unite the remaining pro-Greitens Republicans behind him (some of them are not happy with Hawley, as AG, making an early call for Greitens’ resignation). Waiting in the background is McCaskill, who has taken a small lead in the polls and has made a handful of moderate crossover votes this year. On the whole, this race remains a very possible flip, but it’s now clear that it won’t come as easily as hoped.

6. Florida Tossup (6)

The adventures of Rick Scott (R), Senate candidate, have gone about as well as Republicans could have hoped in the early going, making Florida the only place where the NRSC has expanded the playing field through recruitment. Three-term Sen. Bill Nelson (D) has won two consecutive strong re-elections over weak Republicans. His moderately liberal positioning and noncontroversial image have made him broadly acceptable throughout the state, and it wouldn’t have been surprising to see Republicans punt on the race. However, Nelson has always had somewhat of a soft underbelly to his popularity (sporting surprisingly low statewide name recognition for a long-term incumbent), and Scott, the popular two-term governor (if you’re reading this in July 2010, take all the time you need to process that!), has exploited that through an early barrage of ads which may have caught Nelson flat-footed. Now, the race is in a place more familiar to Scott than Nelson: tied in the polls and with the air wars underway before Memorial Day. Given Scott’s experience winning tightly contested races, his willingness to self-fund extraordinary amounts, and some whispers over whether Nelson has the energy at age 76 to grind through 6 months on the campaign trail, Florida could be this cycle’s unsurprising surprise pickup.

7. West Virginia Tossup (8)

This race is fascinating because it is the rare contest that could be decided fully by local issues, fully by national ones, or by a combination of both, and is more likely to be decided by double-digits in either direction than any other competitive races this year. Sen. Joe Manchin (D)’s old school Blue Dog-ism has made him the strongest West Virginia politician of his generation, but he is about to face the most difficult test of his career. Republicans pushed this race into the Tossup category by averting disaster in the primary, choosing AG Patrick Morrisey (R) over convicted former coal baron, Nevada resident, and generally insane person Don Blankenship (R). Morrisey may have been the second-strongest Republican in the primary field (Rep. Evan Jenkins, a former Democrat, probably had the most general election appeal), but he is the most serious candidate Manchin has ever faced: twice elected statewide, and well-known for crusading against the Obama administration’s coal policies in court. However, Morrisey brings obvious weaknesses to the table: He is a relatively recent New Jersey transplant who lives only a quarter-mile inside the state’s border in the culturally isolated Eastern Panhandle, and commuted to work at a large D.C. law firm until he was elected Attorney General in 2012. While that would be a minor issue in the Sunbelt, West Virginia is more suspicious of outsiders than arguably any other state, and the WV-native Manchin will be sure to draw as sharp a contrast as he can, particularly in the ancestrally Democratic and extremely elastic southern coal counties. Blankenship in defeat also promised to make Morrisey’s life difficult–although state’s sore loser law prevents him from running a third-party candidacy, he is enough of a loose cannon to create problems down the stretch.

Leans toward Incumbent Party

8. Montana Lean D (8)

Montana Senate races have been a consistent source of frustration for Republicans for a century, and this year is no different. Second-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) does not take many strategically moderate votes a la Manchin, Heitkamp, or Donnelly, despite sitting in a state that is deeply red presidentially. However, he is a more skilled politician than any of those three except perhaps Manchin, and has built himself an excellent image for a Western state with populist roots and an affinity for mavericky Democrats. Tester’s greatest advantage this year, however, comes from the GOP’s recruiting woes. The clear choice for this seat in November 2016 was Rep. Ryan Zinke (R), but he now answers to Interior Secretary Zinke. The backup plan was AG Tim Fox (R), but he appears focused on the open-seat gubernatorial race in 2020. Plan C appears to be State Auditor (whose duties are more akin to Insurance Commissioners in most states) Matt Rosendale (R), who won a low-profile race for an open seat in 2016, a year when Montana Republicans swept the downballot row offices for the first time since before the Great Depression. Rosendale moved to Montana from Maryland in 2003, and Montana rivals West Virginia in its suspicion of transplants, hon: Tester and Republican primary foes are both branding him as “Maryland Matt” (Rosendale’s extremely thick Bawl’mor accent does not help matters). Those aforementioned primary foes include Judge Russell Fagg (R), whose unfortunate last name is actually an asset as he is from a prominent political family, State Sen. Al Olszewski (R), and self-funder Troy Downing (R). We expect Montana to develop as a second-tier target, and a flip here would require the race to turn on national issues rather than local personalities.

9. Ohio Lean D (9)

Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) bid for a third term should help us clarify how much of Ohio’s big swing to the right in 2016 was permanent. Brown, a blue-collar liberal who has spent the last 10 years auditioning for a spot as someone’s running mate, won his first term during the Ohio GOP’s 2006 meltdown, and was re-elected in 2012 by 6 points over Josh Mandel (R) as the only incumbent Senate Democrat to run even with, rather than ahead of, Obama. After Mandel unexpectedly backed out of a rematch, Republicans nominated Rep. Jim Renacci (R), who has self-funding capacity and has aligned himself with the Trump wing of the party. Renacci’s Trumpism may offer mixed benefits in Ohio in 2018. On the one hand, he offers less than Mandel would have to traditional Republican and swing voters who are displeased with Trump. On the other, Ohio’s significant bloc of Trump Democrats have been Brown’s bread-and-butter for his entire career despite his staunchly liberal voting record, and if they were to realign to Renacci this year, it may be lights out for both Brown and for Ohio’s status as a swing state. We’re skeptical, however, about such a realignment happening in this climate, particularly given the large name recognition disparity Renacci faces, and thus mark Brown as a favorite for re-election.

10. Tennessee Lean R (14)

Tennessee moves up the board this month, as popular former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has posted small leads in several polls over likely Republican nominee Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R). Bredesen was last on the ballot in 2006, when he won an impressive 69% of the vote and all 95 of the state’s counties (which include many that voted strongly Republican even during the state’s Solid South years). In addition to his history of strong performance at the ballot box, Bredesen carries a moderate image reminiscent of a time not all that long ago when Democrats were the majority party in the state and any open-seat Senate race would have been expected to be highly competitive. Blackburn, for her part, is an antiestablishment-leaning conservative with a strong base in the Nashville suburbs who is a good ideological fit for the Tennessee that exists in 2018–a red monolith which provided Republicans with their largest vote margin of victory outside of Texas in the last two presidential elections. She begins at a significant name recognition disadvantage and her polling deficit is concerning, but would be more concerning if this race were occuring a decade ago. We’re buying into Bredesen enough to upgrade this race to Lean R, but we think this may be his high water mark, as the ashpans of recent Senate history are littered with the polling leads of aging former governors who couldn’t translate old goodwill into a winning campaign (see Thompson, Tommy and Strickland, Ted).

Likely to Stay With Incumbent Party

11. New Jersey Likely D (11)

Republicans have caught about 80% of the breaks they’ve needed to put this long-shot race on the board. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-Exit 165) is an old-fashioned Jersey machine caporegime, who slithered away from a federal corruption and bribery prosecution after his first trial ended in a hung jury and the feds surprisingly dismissed the charges against him rather than retrying the case. That may actually have been good news for the GOP, as a conviction would have meant a routine race against a “clean” (it’s Jersey, so that’s a relative term) Democrat, and an acquittal would have helped Menendez back away from the narrative. Instead, Republicans will get to use the stench of the entire Menendez saga, including the Medicare fraud conviction of his close associate Saloman Melgen, to their advantage this fall, presuming that stench can be distinguished from the general aromas of this naturally beautiful state. The GOP also scored a top recruit: veteran and healthcare CEO Bob Hugin (R-Exit 48), a self-made New Jersey native with the self-funding ability to put together a serious campaign in two of America’s most expensive media markets. Removing the bloated carcass of Chris Christie from the political scene has also likely helped make the state Republican brand a bit less toxic than whatever’s coming out of those smokestacks by Exit 13. All that being said, this is still, unfortunately, New Jersey, which has a strong and inflexible Democratic base and an anti-Trump swing demographic.

12. Wisconsin Likely D (10)

Welcome to the “Texas, plus the 56 electoral votes and 8 Senate seats Democrats might trade for Texas” portion of our program.

As usual, it’s difficult to get a read on Wisconsin, especially with CRUCIAL Waukesha County yet to report. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), a first-term left-winger who surprised many with her strong 2012 performance in rural northern Wisconsin, has sported alarmingly bad approval ratings of late despite the general Democratic lean of the past 18 months. It’s hard to tell how much of that voter anger is specifically directed at Baldwin (who has had no major controversies and has kept a low profile) and how much of it is people just being generally PO’ed at their politicians (Scott Walker and state-level Republicans are all underwater too). Regardless, Republicans missed their opportunity to fully press on Baldwin’s weaknesses, as both candidates in the primary are largely unknown B-listers. Businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson (R) has fundraised reasonably well and is a former College Democrats chair who could perhaps cut against the #resistance narrative. State Sen. Leah Vukmir has some upside as a female legislator from the state’s Republican nerve center in the Milwaukee suburbs. But Baldwin’s name recognition and cash reserves are daunting hurdles to overcome, and Republicans have performed poorly in special elections in Wisconsin this year (where the statewide Democratic culture takes its cues from Madison, a #resist hotspot if there ever was one). It might take an unorthodox, calculated risk from one of the Republicans–think Joni Ernst’s “Squeal” ad or Jason Kander putting together that gun–to draw the attention and resources needed to make Wisconsin a target.

13. Pennsylvania Likely D (12)

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) still needs that suffix at the age of 58, as he’s milked the name of his moderate, popular father (a two-term governor from the 1980’s) into two borderline-invisible terms as a party-line backbencher. Casey has arguably his strongest challenger to date in Rep. Lou Barletta (R), one of the small handful of Republicans who can authentically claim to have run on Trumpism before Trump. Barletta first made headlines as an immigration hardliner as mayor of the small city of Hazelton, and rode blue-collar appeal to win a Democratic-leaning district (including the Casey family’s home base of Scranton) in 2010 before being redistricted to a safe seat. In the House, Barletta has voted as a populist conservative and was one of Trump’s earliest and strongest supporters. It’s realistic to imagine that Barletta, with a strong campaign, could win over many of the downscale, traditionally Democratic voters who helped Trump win the state in 2016. However, it’s much harder to imagine Barletta winning enough of the upscale Pat Toomey voters in SEPA and Allegheny who have supported Casey in the past (and either voted Clinton or very reluctantly for Trump in 2016). These swing areas voted sharply Democratic in 2017 local elections, and seem likely to deliver the state to Casey this year.

14. Minnesota (Special) Likely D (10)

The implosion of Golden Groper Al Franken (D) created a brief window of opportunity for Minnesota Republicans, but Democrats seem to have quickly righted the ship and are on track to hold Franken’s seat in the special election. Appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D) is a mostly unknown and entirely untested candidate–she had spent most of her career as a behind-the-scenes operative before becoming Gov. Mark Dayton’s (D) running mate in 2014. However, that long behind-the-scenes career made Smith a low-risk appointee for Dayton, and the state party was able to clear the field for her (the open governor’s seat likely helped in that regard). Republicans, meanwhile, were unable to recruit an A-lister, and will likely nominate State Sen. Karin Housley (R), who is capable of self-funding but is an even lesser-known entity than Smith. The state’s political history suggests that the most likely outcome is Smith drafting off of senior Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) (more on her much later) to a routine victory, but there are enough uncertainties in this race and in the North Star State generally this fall for us to keep it on the Big Board.

15. Texas Likely R (18)

BLUE TEXAS BLUE TEXAS BLUE TEXAS. It’s (most likely) not happening this year, but if we’re grading Democrats on a curve, they’re getting a bit closer to stumbling across the right candidate to make a serious run at the crown jewel of the GOP estate. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) has impressed local and national observers in the early months of his campaign, and his strong fundraising will enable him to put together a serious operation for this fall. He’s also running against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and the quickest way to get people to dislike Ted Cruz is to introduce them to Ted Cruz. But O’Rourke’s advantages end there. Although he’s no Wendy Davis, he’s still Robert O’Rourke from Columbia University who mysteriously became “Beto” when he decided to build a political career in a Hispanic-majority city, and he’s still a bit liberal and slick for the profile of the state’s swing voters. And those “swing voters” aren’t quite who Democrats think (hope?) they are either–even with the massive 2016 swings in many of Texas’ suburbs, Trump still won the state by 9 points, reinforcing that there are hundreds of thousands of voters between Texas’ flippable center-right suburbanites and the tipping-point voter. Finally, Cruz’s unlikeability shouldn’t be confused for weakness–he remains a very savvy politician with access to near-unlimited national money. On the whole, the blueprint isn’t there for Blue Texas, but a second consecutive single-digit race is possible and would raise eyebrows.

16. Michigan Likely D (16)

The final race we see as potentially competitive is Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D) bid for a fourth term. Stabenow has been one of the most doctrinaire liberals in the Senate despite representing a Trump state, but has easily won her past two elections and seems to have escaped a tough challenge for the third cycle in a row. The likely Republican nominee is businessman and Iraq veteran John James (R), a sufficiently strong candidate to potentially make this into a sleeper race, but one who is more likely to be left underfunded and bereft of assistance from the national party, which will be more focused on the 15 races above. Local Republicans are also more likely to focus on the more competitive races for governor and the state legislature. James also faces a potentially resource-depleting primary challenge from businessman Sandy Pensler (R), who has not attracted much institutional support but who has self-funded his campaign with a $5 million loan. It’s looking more like James will need to draw some sort of inside straight–a better local and national climate, an error or two by Stabenow, and as we discussed for Wisconsin, perhaps an Ernst/Kander-like maneuver to stand out from the crowd–to keep this race on the Big Board.

Safe For Incumbent Party

17. Virginia Safe D (17)

First-term Sen. Tim Kaine (D) has settled nicely on to his path to trivia-answer status—he may wind up as the most forgettable losing VP candidate since Sargent Shriver in 1972. But America’s favorite “Soccer Dad taking out the strain of his divorce on the refs” is a popular figure at home in Virginia, a #resistance-friendly state where Democrats performed even better than expected in 2017. Kaine’s safety is reinforced by the GOP’s lackluster recruiting effort in this race. The preferred candidate is State Rep. Nick Freitas (R), a young, libertarian-leaning veteran who holds a rural district outside the state’s major media markets. Freitas is a solid candidate, but hasn’t fundraised much and seems a long shot to elevate his profile above Generic R. Freitas’ opponents in the June 12 primary are two of the more odious travelers on the Virginia GOP’s 9-year walk in the wilderness: Prince William CE Corey Stewart (R), the Minnesotan best known for salivating over Confederate monuments in his 2017 gubernatorial run, and E.W. Jackson (R), a minister who ran a disastrous LG campaign in 2013 and was last seen warning his flock that yoga is a tool of Satan. Nominating Freitas would give the GOP a shot in the event Kaine experiences a dramatic change in fortune, but more importantly, would spare the national party a five-month circus conveniently touring just across the river from the Beltway press. However, a recent Stewart internal gave him a large lead in the primary.

18. Mississippi (Special) Safe R (NR)

We have a 35th race on the board, as Sen. Thad Cochran (R) put himself out to pasture after a 40-year-run as the most significant figure in the history of the Mississippi Republican Party. Unlike Mississippi’s regularly scheduled Senate election (see below!), this race is Louisiana Rules Top Two, and the resulting potential for chaos leads us to race this among the least-safe of the Safe seats. Three significant candidates will be on the November ballot, two Republicans and a Democrat. The appointed incumbent is Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), who won two statewide races for Ag. Comm. after switching from D to R while serving as a rural-district State Senator. Hyde-Smith is a mainstream Southern Republican, although her relatively recent party switch has made some more conservative voters uncomfortable. Nevertheless, the state’s political establishment is entirely in her corner, because the other Republican running is State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), who narrowly lost a 2014 primary for this seat to Cochran. McDaniel’s greatest hits, if you were fortunate enough to forget, include several appearances at neo-Confederate events, a bizarre scandal which involved a break-in at Cochran’s wife’s nursing home, and a lawsuit to overturn an election he lost by over 3,000 votes. The third wheel in the race is former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and MS-02 Rep. Mike Espy (D), a prominent black Democrat with deep ties to both the state and national parties. With Mississippi’s high Democratic floor, Espy is all but certain to advance to the runoff with one of the two Republicans. The NRSC will do its best to ensure that his opponent in December is Hyde-Smith.

19. Maine Safe I (15)

First-term Sen. King Angus I Angus King (I) has been, with credit to Dennis Green, who we thought he was: a mainstream liberal member of the Democratic caucus who makes only occasional feints toward the window dressing of his Independent label. King’s schtick has worked in Maine since his two terms as governor in the 90’s: in a state that loves its moderate Republicans, he’s carved out his own niche of affection. Thus, the GOP was always going to face long odds in taking back Olympia Snowe’s old seat. However, that task could be made even harder if Maine voters pass a ballot measure in June that would implement instant-runoff voting (IRV) for federal general elections. IRV is a system used in several municipalities (Minneapolis and Oakland, most notably) where voters rank their choices, and if no candidate gets 50%, the lowest ranked candidates are dropped and their votes redistributed until no one has any idea how anything works anymore. Mainers initially passed this nonsense in 2016, but a court ruled that the state’s constitution didn’t allow its use for state general elections, leading to this year’s referendum to clarify if it can be used in federal generals.

Anyway, Republicans have a respectable C-list candidate in State Sen. Erik Brakey, and Some Dude Zak Ringelstein (D) will draw 5-10% of the vote from the left as the “official” Democratic nominee. If IRV fails in June, Brakey faces an uphill climb to the 45-48% of the vote he would need to unseat King. But if IRV passes, King will presumably be the second choice of Republican and Democratic voters, making it essentially impossible for him to lose.

20. Mississippi (General) Safe R (21)

While the concurrent special election offers some potential for drama, redshirt freshman Sen. Roger Wicker (R) is facing a much more conventional run for a second full term. Wicker is a generic Republican who has made few waves during his 10 years in office. However, after Sen. Doug Jones (D) won an improbable victory next door in Alabama, Democrats may take a longer-than-usual look at Mississippi, a state with a larger black population (the largest, percentage-wise, in America) and thus a higher Democratic floor. Yet that high floor comes with a low ceiling, as Mississippi whites have become some of the most inelastically Republcian voters in the country this century. Democrats have two State Reps. in their primary, David Barca (D) and Omeria Scott (D), but as long as Wicker stays out of the malls, neither figures to pose much of a threat.

21. New Mexico Safe D (19)

New Mexico is a state where Republicans have a high floor (large geographic swaths of the state are indistinguishable from West Texas, after all), but have had an increasingly difficult time getting to 50% outside of great years. In 2014–one of those great years—underfunded C-lister Allen Weh (R) managed to hold Sen. Tom Udall (D) to a routine 56-44 victory. And that bodes well for generic first-term Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), as 2018 is not shaping up to be such a great year, and Republicans haven’t managed to recruit a better candidate. The only Republican to file for the race was Mick Rich (R), a member of the state Labor Commission who is barely above Some Dude-level. Rich’s task is further complicated by a prominent Libertarian in the race, former Republican Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (L), who could draw in the high-single digits. Thus, barring a significant development, Heinrich will be on his way to an easy re-election.

22. Rhode Island Safe D (26)

In a bizarre and somewhat sad rematch of one of the most competitive Senate races in the country in 2006, confused ex-Sen. and Gov. Lincoln Chafee (D, this week) will challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D, every week) in the primary. Whitehouse defeated Chafee 1.0, then a true RINO (he voted to the left of some of his Democratic colleagues), in a race that helped decide control of the Senate 12 years ago. Now, Whitehouse is a backbench liberal, and Chafee has cycled through his Independent phase, during which he was an extremely unpopular governor, and is now seeking to complete the Charlie Crist Memorial Triple Crown by losing as a Democrat. Surprisingly, Republicans also have a competitive primary with two capable candidates: State Rep. Bobby Nardolillo (R) and retired judge Bob Flanders (R). Either will lose to Whitehouse, but could potentially lay the groundwork for a future run in a state that took a surprising right turn in 2016.

23. Maryland Safe D (20)

We’re deep into the “Safe” portion of our program and at the point where landslide races against Some Dudes get repetitive and then OMG YES CHELSEA MANNING!!!! The WikiLeaker and former convict, whom most people on the lunatic fringe of both parties identify as at least their second or third favorite traitor, is mounting a moonbat-of-all-moonbats primary challenge to inoffensive careerist Ben Cardin (D). (I’d call it a kamikaze bid, but the comparison would impugn the honor of those young Japanese pilots.) Manning’s follies will, if nothing else, bring some color to what will otherwise be a dull coronation for Cardin. Republicans have no fewer than 11 Some Dudes running in the primary; the hope is that whoever emerges won’t be a distraction to the re-election of Gov. Larry Hogan (R). Indeed, the bigger threat to Cardin probably comes from investor Neal Simon (I), who may have the self-funding ability to wage a credible indie bid; however, thus far Simon’s campaign hasn’t made many waves.

24. Delaware Safe D (22)

Delaware drops a few notches this month, as every month that Sen. Tom Carper (D) doesn’t get dragged into the #MeToo pit of doom is a good month for Team Blue. Carper, who admitted to striking his wife in the 1980’s, could still be a late retirement candidate, as Delaware’s filing deadline isn’t until July. However, even if Carper were to retire, he would likely be replaced by ex-Gov. Jack Markell (D) or similar figure on Delaware’s deep bench of popular milquetoast liberals. Republicans actually control two of Delaware’s five row offices, but aside from Mike Castle’s doomed 2010 bid, haven’t seriously contested a Senate or Gubernatorial race in this state since 2000.

25. Massachusetts Safe D (27)

In another race with more potential for entertainment value than competition, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D)’s chief focus will be to dispel any remaining reservations about her integrity. Warren has been a progressive superstar since she began banging the #occupy war drum in 2012, but the Fake Indian controversy has made her a popular target and punchline for juvenile Republicans, and if she’s unable to keep it from flaring up again this year it may make some national Democrats doubt her viability as a national candidate. The GOP has a pair of credible candidates, State Rep. Geoff Diehl (a Trumpist) and longtime Romney aide Beth Lindstrom, but the race lost a bit of its fun element last week, when self-proclaimed “inventor of email” Shiva Ayyadurai (R), who used the slogan “Only a Real Indian Can Beat a Fake Indian,” dropped out.

26. Connecticut Safe D (23)

If it seems like the entire Acela corridor has seats up this year, it’s because it does—literally every state on the Acela line is electing a Senator, as are all states north of NC and east of KY except New Hampshire. Connecticut will also host a boring coronation of first-term Sen. Chris Murphy (D), who is sort of the embodiment of the old adage that every Senator looks at himself in the mirror in the morning and sees a future president. (Murphy’s literally the only person who sees that in himself, but if you gave him truth serum he’d probably admit to doodling “President Chris Murphy” signatures on the back of his textbooks while he was inspirationally overcoming his upper-middle class upbringing at Williams College.) As in Maryland and Massachusetts, Republicans have punted on this race to focus on the governor’s race, which in this case is a top pickup opportunity.

27. Nebraska Safe R (25)

We interrupt these safely Democratic seats to bring you Nebraska, where first-term Sen. Deb Fischer (R) has an easy path to re-election. After scoring an upset in a three-way primary in 2012, Fischer has established herself as a generic conservative who has avoided national headlines save for a brief spell in October 2016 where she couldn’t decide whether she was un-endorsing Trump or not. But Fischer easily won a primary this month with Trump’s endorsement, and should have no trouble dispatching Lincoln City Councilor Jane Raybould (D) in November, perhaps even winning all 93 counties.

28. Washington Safe D (24)

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) won the closest Senate race in the country in 2000, but since has had two routine re-election victories and has settled in as a popular, low-profile mainstream liberal with close ties to the state’s significant tech industry. Washington uses California Rules Top Two, and Cantwell faces two dozen challengers from several different parties. Republicans were facing the very real prospect of one of the 12(!) GOP Some Dudes in the field finishing second with less than 10% of the vote, but were spared when former state party chairwoman Susan Hutchinson (R) filed just before last week’s deadline. Hutchinson will provide credible opposition to Cantwell but is likely to lose by about 20 points.

29. Wyoming Safe R (30)

Redshirt freshman Sen. John Barrasso (R) has established himself as a popular conservative who straddles the establishment/antiestablishment line. In America’s reddest state, that puts him in great shape to win a second full term easily. But in the event something crazy were to happen, Team Blue did manage to recruit the only Democrat who has come within 10 points of winning federal office in Wyoming this century: rancher Gary Trauner (D). Trauner came within 1,000 votes of knocking off controversial WY-AL Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) in 2006, and held her successor Cynthia Lummis (R) to a 10-point margin in 2008. There’s no reason to expect he can come anywhere close to those numbers against the more established Barrasso, but at this point in the rankings, any small bit of pulse matters.

30. Minnesota (General) Safe D (28)

Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) understated mainstream liberalism and strong constituent services have made her an ideal political match for a politically divided state with a proud Democratic history. Klobuchar’s popularity, her dominant wins in 2006 and 2012, and the lean of the year were three strikes against any Republican challenger, and the Franken seat opening up eliminated any remaining chance the GOP would make a serious run at her. The likely Republican nominee is State Rep. Jim Newberger (R), who is not running a particularly strong campaign.

31. Utah Safe R (29)

Oh, Mitt. You never can make it easy on yourself, can you? Arguably the most admired public figure in modern Utah history, the GOP presidential nominee from the simpler times of 2012 made the curious decision to qualify for the primary ballot not by gathering signatures, but by subjecting himself to Utah’s activist-driven convention–perhaps the worst fit possible for him politically. Almost predictably, Romney lost the convention endorsement to conservative State Rep. Mike Kennedy (R), and will now face Kennedy in the primary. Romney should still easily win the nomination, as the primary electorate much more representative of Utah Republicans than the convention (Exhibit A: moderate Gov. Gary Herbert took 72% in the 2016 primary after losing the convention by a wider margin than Romney), and Salt Lake County Councilor Jenny Wilson (D) should prove no challenge to dispatch in the fall. But perhaps Romney’s convention failure is harbinger of things to come: that it won’t always be smooth skiing in D.C. for the man who is likely gearing up for–in some shape or form–one more run for the helm of the national GOP ship.

32. Vermont Safe I (32)

A Democrat has never been elected to this seat–by the public, by the state legislature, by the local soviet council, or by anyone else (for those interested, the only other Senate seat that compares is Brian Schatz’s in Hawaii, which has never elected a Republican, albeit in about 150 fewer years). And that fantastic bit of political trivia is all but certain to survive this cycle, as Bro-in-Chief Bernie Sanders (I) has shed the bourgeois chains of the Democratic Party label and is a safe bet to keep this seat in the hands of the glorious proletariat for another 6 years. Citoyen Sanders is actually facing a Democratic challenger this year, Some Dude Jon Svitavsky (D), which will necessitate him to appear on the Democratic primary ballot and then decline the nomination. It may have made sense for Republicans to put up a halfhearted bid for this seat, if only to pester Sanders while he weighs another run for the presidency, but with less than a week to go until the filing deadline the only name in the race is Some Dude Janeep Pannu (R).

33. Hawaii Safe D (31)

Speaking of Hawaii, here’s its seat which has elected a Republican previously, but the odds of it doing so this year are about the same as those of a blizzard postponing the election. Freshman Sen. Mazie Hirono (D) is a popular career politician in a state which loves its incumbents, and is the increasingly rare Hawaii Democrat with strong support in both of the state party’s wings (union-oriented Asians and ecotopian whites). Hirono was previously considered a possible retirement (and technically still may be, as the filing deadline is June 5) after she was diagnosed with kidney and thyroid cancer, but her treatment does not appear to have slowed her down, and she has steadfastly maintained she will run for re-election. The only Republican in the race is the Some Dudiest of Some Dudes, one Thomas White (R), who is without a campaign website or social media presence.

34. New York Safe D (33)

Given how forced a presidential candidate Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) seems–but of course a young-ish, telegenic female Senator from New York must be under consideration–it’s almost easy to forget the bizarre run of luck and shrewd maneuvering that led her to her current day job of trying to vote to the left of Cory Booker without pissing off too many Wall Street donors. Since her race this year will be a cakewalk against sacrificial lamb Chele Farley (R), let’s have fun and talk about that instead. Gillibrand in 2008 was a freshman upstate Congresswoman and former Big Tobacco lawyer who had campaigned as a pro-gun, anti-amnesty fiscal conservative, and was building a Blue Doggish record which matched her rhetoric. Then came a surreal gong show: Eliot Spitzer became client #9; David Paterson bumbled his way into the Governor’s Mansion; Hillary Clinton got that job where she had that email thing; the handoff of Clinton’s seat to Caroline Kennedy in accordance with the Act of Settlement of 1701 failed to survive Kennedy’s disastrous media rollout; presumed Plan B Andrew Cuomo shifted gears from a potentially cloudy Senate race to what was suddenly a delicious-looking gubernatorial race; Paterson decided to appoint “someone different, like a woman not from NYC” to the seat despite its prior incumbent being a woman from Arkansas; Gillibrand was the only person under 80 fitting that description and was appointed; liberals collectively besieged her Blue Dog record; multiple Real Carolyns of Congress threatened to run; Harold Ford Jr. took a helicopter ride; Rudy and Pataki sniffed around for the GOP and then…..nothing. Gillibrand managed to dodge every single possible challenge, and no one seemed to notice as she went from one of the more conservative House Democrats to one of the most principled progressive fighters in the Senate. As the song goes, if she can make it there….

35. California Safe D (34)

Its glistening #35 trophy notwithstanding, the Golden State has a good shot at seeing a competitive Senate race this year. Four-plus term incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is one of the most successful politicians in California history, and faces no threat whatsoever from Republicans in her massively expensive and bluer-by-the-day state. However, Feinstein, a pragmatic liberal who has made a few crossover votes on consensus legislation, has never been fully in step with the far left wing of the California Democrats the way the occupants of the state’s other seat have. This year, she is facing a serious challenge from State Sen. Kevin de Leon (D) in the Top Two primary. De Leon is well-funded and has collected a surprising number of endorsements from the left wing of the California establishment, including four members of Congress and a significant bloc of the state legislature. In addition to running unabashedly to Feinstein’s left on issues like the environment, single payer, and immigration, de Leon offers a contrast in age (51 vs. 84), ethnicity (California has never elected a Hispanic Senator), and geography (Greater Los Angeles, shockingly, hasn’t elected a Senator since 1970). As Republicans have 11 entirely anonymous candidates running–ranging from harmless nobodies to wacko fascists–it’s very likely that Feinstein and de Leon will advance to a D-on-D general, making California our safest seat–but Feinstein hardly our safest Senator.

Governor Rankings:

Likely to Flip to Challenging Party:

1. Illinois Likely D (1)

The hole just keeps getting deeper for Gov. Bruce Rauner (R). Rauner has attempted in his term to fight the powers that be in the state, most notably Speaker Mike Madigan (D), and has by all accounts failed miserably in that effort. Madigan is both among the most savvy political machine operators anywhere and one of the nation’s most effective economically liberal policy drivers. Rauner, a billionaire investor and the archetypal suburban fiscal conservative and social moderate-liberal, has attempted to take the fight to Madigan with a no-holds-barred approach to fiscal conservatism. For the first two and a half years of his term, Rauner was able to gum up the budget works in 2015 and 16, funding GOP legislative gains in the 2016 election, and refusing concessions to Madigan unless reforms got through. Rauner retained decent if unspectacular approval ratings throughout the first part of his term. But in mid-2017, the logjam broke decidedly in Madigan’s favor. Madigan was able to convince a dozen legislative RINOs to enact a tax increase and reform-free budget over Rauner’s veto. Then Madigan was able to send Rauner a measure guaranteeing state funding of elective abortions, which presented Rauner with a no-win situation: sign it and anger his base, or veto it and hurt his general election prospects. Rauner signed it, which was the last straw for much of the conservative base who had become fed up with a lack of fiscal victories. Madigan’s champion in this fight is billionaire venture capitalist JB Pritzker (D). Madigan and the state’s Dem establishment saw him as someone who could go dollar-for-dollar with Rauner in the cash race. Rauner’s unpopularity coupled with the lean of the state and year mean that Pritzker has maintained double-digit leads. Rauner’s bid got even tougher a few weeks ago when RINO State Sen. Sam McCann, a populist social conservative and fiscal liberal, entered the race as a third-party candidate. While McCann’s vote share will likely be limited, his votes will likely be ones Rauner would have needed to stay in contention. Though Rauner’s limitless funds will enable him to make the general election a seven-month slugfest, his only real chance at re-election probably involves selling the chaos of the last four years as a better option than Pritzker turning the state’s keys back over to Madigan. That’s looking like a near-impossibly tough sell, and we are thus moving this race even farther into the Dem side of the field.

Leans Toward Challenging Party:

2. New Mexico Lean D (2)

New Mexico has a light but durable blue lean; combined with the unpopularity of outgoing Gov. Susana Martinez (R), that means this race is looking like the only other seat that is outright more likely than not to flip. Democrats have a front-runner for their nomination in Rep. Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D), who has represented a third of the state as a mainstream liberal. Lujan-Grisham faces State Sen. Joe Cervantes (D) and media exec Jeff Apodaca (D), son of 70s-era Gov. Jerry (D). Republicans will nominate Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who also represents a third of the state. However, there’s reason to be skeptical about Pearce’s chances, as his prior statewide bid in 2008 was underwhelming even by the poor standards of the year. Pearce is a mainstream conservative, but in a blue state and a year with an energized Dem base, hasn’t really proven the kind of crossover ability he would need to prevail. Thus, for now, we continue to mark Democrats as slight but noticeable favorites to flip the seat.

Tossups:

3. Maine Tossup (4)

This race is nearly impossible to handicap given the questions about Maine’s new Ranked-Choice Voting System (and whether it will even be in effect for the general election.) Making things more confusing, both sides have crowded primary fields, though there are clear front-runners on either side. For the GOP, 2010 Indie candidate Shawn Moody (R), who has close ties to outgoing Gov. Paul LePage (R), looks like the front-runner over LePage admin official Mary Mayhew (R), State Sen. Garrett Mason (R), and State Rep. Ken Fredette (R). On the Dem side, appointed AG Janet Mills (D) looks favored over her six rivals. The general election could be even more chaotic, as there are likely to be at least two credible Indies on the ballot, appointed State Treasurer Teresea Hayes (I) and ex-Lewiston and Auburn Mayor John Jenkins (I), who might be major factors in a Ranked-Choice scenario. I throw up my hands and say that as of yet it’s hard to predict how this race will turn out.

4. Wisconsin Tossup (11)

Gov. Scott Walker (R) has faced three tough races to win his two terms, but it is starting to look like his bid for a third may be his toughest yet. Walker has benefited from Wisconsin’s highly-polarized nature; he has locked down his base of conservatives, which have proven to be just a tiny bit bigger than the state’s large base of anti-Walker liberals. However, this year, Walker is facing some new headwinds. The liberal base in the state is extremely #resistance heavy and likely to be fired up this year. And Walker has faced criticism over Foxconn, a deal to heavily subsidize the opening of a new electronics plant, which could give Dems a wedge issue to peel off just enough Republicans from Walker. Democrats have a very crowded field here, with elected State Superintendent Tony Evers (D), a mainstream liberal, looking like a slight front-runner, and Madison Mayor Paul Soglin (D), a staunch left-winger, also being a major candidate. There are a large number of other candidates also in the race, though so far they have not broken out of the pack. The crowded field means that Dems’ chances of nominating a dud here are very real. We are moving this race way up the list and into the Tossup category because it seems that Walker fatigue is becoming a significant factor.

5. Michigan Tossup (5)

Both sides have contested primaries but clear front-runners for this open seat. For Democrats, ex-State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has coalesced establishment support and seems the favorite in the primary. However, she is facing a well-funded rival in businessman Shri Thanedar (D). Thanedar has been advertising aggressively with self-funding, and attempting to position himself to Whitmer’s left. However, there have been questions raised about his business record and his commitment to the progressive cause. Detroit City official Abul El-Sayed (D) looks like a third wheel in the race but has some far-left support. On the GOP side, AG Bill Schuette (R), a mainstream conservative, has Trump’s endorsement and has led in primary polling by significant margins. He faces three rivals, the more moderate LG Brian Calley (R), antiestablishment conservative State Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R), and physician Jim Hines (R). Assuming Calley and Whitmer advance to the general, both are considered strong candidates and the general should be competitive.

6. Nevada Tossup (3)

Republicans have a clear front-runner for the nomination to succeed popular Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) in AG Adam Laxalt (R). Laxalt was considered something of a fluke winner as AG in 2014, but he has established a strong rapport with the state’s establishment in spite of his rather strong ideological conservatism. He is the clear favorite in the primary over State Treasurer Dan Schwartz (R), who is somewhat more moderate and a bit mavericky. On the Dem side, a pair of Clark County commissioners are facing off, Steve Sisolak (D) and Christine Giunchigliani (D). Both have been well-funded and there is no clear favorite in the primary. Both sides thus seem likely to have strong contenders in the general. Nevada has somewhat defied the demographic destiny arguments, remaining quite purple even as it continues to diversify; furthermore, its minority populations may be less energized this year. Thus, we are keeping this race in the Tossup category.

7. Connecticut Tossup (6)

Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is retiring after two terms, hideously unpopular for his attempts to pursue a liberal wish list. The resulting fiscal chaos in the state has led to a series of tax hikes and a high-profile corporate exodus, which has resulted in a significant backlash. Connecticut Republicans tied the State Senate last year even as Trump was falling well short in the state, and they have been very bullish about their chances this year. Perhaps a bit too bullish, as the field has attracted a large number of candidates. Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R) is so far looking like a slight front-runner, but he could face as many as five others in the primary: Ex-Trumbull Mayor Tim Herbst (R), Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti (R), and businessmen Stephen Obsitnik (R), David Stemerman (R), and Bob Stefanowski (R). The crowded field of “B” and “C” listers doesn’t inspire a huge amount of confidence in the GOP not nominating a dud. However, Democrats have had their own recruitment woes as well. They have settled on 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont (D), whose wealth has made him the most palatable of a series of mediocre options who vied to succeed Malloy after the state’s many “A” listers declined. Lamont has strong establishment support and should be favored over businessman Guy Smith (D) and Bridgeport Mayor and convicted felon Joe Ganim (D) in the primary. Polling has shown the general election highly competitive, between Malloy’s toxicity and the blue lean of the state and year. Thus, we are leaving this race in the middle of the Tossup category.

8. Florida Tossup (7)

The primary for this open seat on the GOP side has been playing out in a story line more common to the Dem side of the aisle: rather than an establishment/antiestablishment split, this contest is more a national vs. state establishment one. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) has been preparing for this race since he surprisingly gave up his congressional seat in 2010 to seek the lower-profile state Row Office. Putnam has spent a decade cultivating support from the state’s establishment and business community, which has left him well-funded and the front-runner in the primary. However, he faces a serious rival in Rep. Ron DeSantis (R). DeSantis is more antiestablishment-leaning and has been considered a rising star. However, he does have support from the DC-level ideological conservative establishment and Trump’s endorsement. DeSantis’s statewide name recognition and fundraising cannot match Putnam’s, which could be a problem in the large and expensive state. On the Dem side of the aisle, Miami Beach Mayor Phillip Levine (D) is now looking like the primary front-runner due to his self-funding ability. Levine has blown past ex-Rep. Gwen Graham (D), who has been criticized as running a lackluster campaign based only on name rec from her father, ex-Gov. and Sen. Bob (D). Two others, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) and businessman Chris King (D), seem longer-shots. Florida Republicans have tended to do very well in midterms, as a significant part of what makes the state purple is its low-turnout minority populations who may not be as energized this year. But Florida is still a swing state, and with the open seat and credible, well-funded nominees on both sides, it’s hard to place this race anywhere but firmly in the Tossup category.

9. Colorado Tossup (8)

Both sides have crowded primaries for this open seat, but clear front-runners. On the Dem side, Rep. Jared Polis (D) is in the driver’s seat for the primary. A wealthy mainstream liberal with slight libertarian tendencies, Polis is well-known from his decade representing the Boulder area in the House and has the self-funding ability to quickly raise his statewide profile. He is facing three other candidates, LG Donna Lynne (D), ex-State Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D), and ex-State Sen. Mike Johnston (D); Kennedy in particular may have some strong grassroots support. On the GOP side, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) is the best-known candidate and front-runner in the primary. However, he faces three rivals in ex-State Rep. Victor Mitchell (R), businessman and Romney relation Doug Robinson (R), and ex-Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (R). If Stapleton and Polis prevail, the general election between two mainstream and electorally-proven members of their respective parties will be highly competitive. However, in a state with a slight blue lean and a large upscale white #resistance population, we place this race toward the Dem-leaning side of the Tossup category.

10. Alaska Tossup (9)

This ratings update has not been a good one for the Walker caucus. Gov. Bill Walker (I/D) spent most of his term as a centrist Indie, earning some allies and enemies in both parties. His popularity has been mediocre, as falling oil revenues have led to a budget crunch. As re-election time has come around, Walker has more fully embraced the Dem side of the aisle, winning a lawsuit in order to run in the Democratic primary. The decision by Walker to seek the Dem nod, which he will likely get, removes what could have been one of the biggest obstacles to his re-election, another Dem candidate hitting him from the left. Republicans have three candidates to take on Walker in State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R), State Rep. and ex-Speaker Mike Chenault (R), and businessman Scott Hawkins (R). So far there is no clear favorite in the primary. The limited polling of the race has shown Walker unpopular but slightly ahead. That’s a perilous place to be for an incumbent against a challenger with lower name rec in an opposite-party state, even without the threat of a three-way race making it more chaotic. As a result, we are pushing the race a hair over the line into the Tossup category, though more toward the D-tilting side of it.

Leans Toward Incumbent Party:

11. Minnesota Lean D (12)

This race was shaken up when ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) announced he would make a comeback bid for the office he retired from in 2010. Pawlenty now becomes the favorite to win the GOP primary due to his strong name recognition, though his rivals, Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) and Woodbury Mayor Mary Giuliani-Stephens (R), could put up a credible fight. Pawlenty’s term as Governor didn’t have major problems, though it isn’t remembered for major accomplishments either, which might make his case in the general a somewhat tough sell. On the Dem side, the most likely Dem nominee is moderate Rep. Tim Walz (D), who has held down a light-red rural seat in the southern part of the state. However, Walz faces opposition from his left in establishment liberal State Rep. Erin Murphy (D) and bold progressive State Auditor Rebecca Otto (D), either of whom could pull the upset but would probably be a significantly weaker Dem nominee. Both sides are likely to have credible nominees, and Minnesota is in the swing state range. However, the very slight but durable blue lean of the state leaves us to mark Dems as the slightest of favorites for this seat.

12. Ohio Lean R (13)

As expected, both parties nominated top-tier contenders for this open seat. Republicans nominated AG Mike DeWine (R), a longtime pol whose varied political career has taken him through stints in each chamber of congress before a comeback as AG. DeWine faces his predecessor, ex-AG Richard Cordray (D), whom he narrowly defeated in 2010 and has since served as director of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. Both are credible candidates in the mainstream of their respective parties and regarded as skilled campaigners; thus, both sides are expecting the general election to be hard-fought. However, Ohio’s newfound light-red lean and Cordray’s absence from the state political scene for the better part of a decade lead us to continue to mark DeWine as a slight but noticeable favorite to hold the seat.

13. Kansas Lean R (10)

Former Gov. Sam Brownback (R) is the latest in a long line of Governors who have tried to implement ambitious reform programs in their state and fallen flat on their face. In Bronwback’s case, his poorly-managed attempt at tax reform created a budget mess and left him with toxic approval ratings, to the point where his appointment to a low-level Trump administration job seemed more like an escape hatch than a promotion. Left with the task of cleaning up in Brownback’s wake is his handpicked LG, now-Gov. Jeff Colyer (R). Colyer is facing a tough primary with SoS Kris Kobach (R), who is perhaps even better-known than the short-term incumbent for his long history of national-leve immigration-restriction activism. Kobach is highly polarizing, but less tied to Brownback, so paradoxically he could very well be a stronger general election option. Two more moderate candidates are also in the primary, Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer (R) and 2006 nominee and ex-State Sen. Jim Barnett (R); they both seem longer-shots. Sensing an opportunity, Dems have a crowded primary field as well. State Sen. Laura Kelly (D), ex-Wichita Mayor Greg Brewer (D), and Gov. Mark Parkinson admin official Josh Svaty (D); there is not yet a front-runner. However, Dems’ biggest problem in this race may be an old ally. 2014 Senate candidate Greg Orman (I), who was the de facto Dem nominee for the Senate seat four years ago, is running as a centrist Indie, and his third-party bid could split the center-left vote and hand power to the state’s large conservative base. As a result, we still consider the GOP favored to hold this seat, though an upset by either Dems or Orman is very possible.

14. Iowa Lean R (17)

Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has had middling to good popularity in her first partial term after ascending to this seat last year. Her recent signing of a restrictive abortion law may turn off swing voters in what is still a purple state with social liberal tendencies; so far, it is still too early to tell what impact that might have. Democrats have a crowded primary for the right to take on Reynolds, but businessman Fred Hubbell (D) is looking like the very clear front-runner. Union official Cathy Glasson (D), ex-IADP chair Andy McGuire (D), ex-Vilsack admin official John Norris, and ex-Iowa City Mayor Ross Willburn (D) are also in the race. Overall, the purple to light-red lean of the state and Reynolds’s good-but-not-great popularity leave us to mark the incumbent as a moderately strong favorite for a full term.

15. Oklahoma Lean R (18)

Oklahoma is facing a somewhat similar situation to its northern neighbor in that poor fiscal planning has blown a hole in the state’s budget. The result has been dramatic cuts to school funding, resulting in four-day school weeks being widespread throughout the state, teacher pay being regarded as substandard, and class sizes growing. As such, Oklahoma has been ground zero of an education revolt, with teachers inserting themselves strongly into legislative elections. Termed-out Gov. Mary Fallin (R) has grown quite unpopular as a result, and Republicans have suffered an embarrassing string of defeats in deep-red legislative district special elections. Democrats have a credible likely nominee for this seat in ex-AG Drew Edmondson (D). Republicans have a crowded primary field that is likely to head to a runoff. Right now there look like three major candidates in LG Todd Lamb (R), OKC Mayor Mick Cornett (R), and businessman Kevin Stitt (R), with three others having a chance to surprise, State Auditor Gary Jones (R), ex-US Attorney Gary Richardson (R), and ex-State Rep. Dan Fisher (R). Due to the deep-red lean of the state, the GOP nominee will start out favored, but the education debacle and credible nominee present Democrats with a very strong opportunity to flip this seat; as such, we are keeping this seat in the Lean R category.

16. Rhode Island Lean D (16)

Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) has pursued a somewhat fiscally-moderate tack in her first term in an attempt to get the state’s chaotic finances in order. Thus, her popularity has been mediocre; however, a significant chunk of that disapproval comes from the left. Raimondo has drawn two significant primary challengers in 2000s-era ex-SoS Matt Brown (D) and ex-State Rep. Spencer Davidson (D). So far neither anti-Raimondo campaign has received a lot of traction, but Rhode Island’s late primary means that they will have time to make the case. Republicans have a primary of their own; Cranston Mayor and 2014 nominee Allan Fung (R), who narrowly lost to Raimondo four years ago, is favored. He will face off with State Rep. Patricia Morgan (R), a fellow establishment Republican, and ex-State Sen. Giovanni Feroce (R). As Rhode Island has shown itself very open to electing GOP governors, Raimondo’s mediocre popularity likely means the race will be competitive. However, the GOP is facing a thorn in its side in R-turned-I ex-State Rep. Joe Trillo (I), who is running a third-party campaign as a Trumpist Indie that will likely peel votes straight out of the GOP nominee’s pocket. As a result, we are marking Democrats a moderately strong favorite to hold this seat, though an upset is possible.

Likely to Stay with Incumbent Party:

17. New Hampshire Likely R (23)

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has posted fairly strong approval ratings in his first term, and looks like a fairly solid bet for a second. However, New Hampshire is a very swingy state where the #reistance population is likely to be high, and two credible Dems have emerged to take on Sununu. The front-runner for the nomination is ex-State Sen. Molly Kelly (D), an establishment liberal. She faces the more moderate Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand (D) in the primary. Overall, Sununu doesn’t have quite as stellar approval ratings of some of his colleagues in bluer states, so we are placing this race towards the more competitive side of the Likely R category; however, he should still be considered a strong favorite for another term.

18. Maryland Likely R (15)

One of the more interesting gubernatorial story lines this year is how 3 out of 4 Republicans in deep-blue states are not just surviving, but actively thriving in their re-election bids. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) was initially considered quite vulnerable in spite of his popularity, mostly due to the experience of his predecessor, ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). Ehrlich was generally popular as well, but the 2006 wave, some minor vulnerabilities, and a top-tier opponent in Martin O’Malley (D) were enough to take him down thanks to the state’s large Dem base. So far Hogan is on course to avoid that fate, for multiple reasons. First, Hogan is much more popular than Ehrlich, habitually registering 2/3 approval and ranking among the 3 most popular Governors nationwide, aided by his immensely personable nature. Second, Hogan is (unlike Ehrlich) incredibly conscious about picking his battles, studiously avoiding the multiple attempts legislative Dems have presented to attempt to tie him to Trump or unpopular GOP policies. Finally, Democrats have a crowded field with no obvious “A” list contenders. Prince George’s CE Rushern Baker (D), who is establishment-leaning, and ex-NAACP chair Benjamin Todd Jealous (D), who is running on a far-left platform, lead a seven-dwarves field, but neither has really cut through the noise yet. Overall, with the clock running down on this race, that means Hogan is starting to look like an even stronger favorite in spite of the lean of the state. While the state’s Dem lean means we can’t foreclose the possibility of a rock with a (D) next to its name being able to win, that possibility is getting more remote each day, and we feel confident enough to push the race over the line into the Likely R category.

19. Georgia Likely R (20)

There are few better ways to become a national media sensation than by being a charismatic progressive Dem in a red state. It looks like the national media may have found their star in that sense this year in State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D). Abrams, a black progressive from the inner Atlanta suburbs, won an easy primary victory last week and has gotten significant national buzz. Republicans have two less-exciting candidates competing in the runoff. LG Casey Cagle (R) is an establishment-oriented mainstream conservative, while his rival, SoS Brian Kemp (R), is a bit more antiestablishment-leaning. The runoff between the two may become nasty over the next two months, which might give Abrams an opening. However, Georgia is a very red state, and Abrams is running on a left-wing platform well out of step with the median voter. As a result, we continue to mark the GOP nominee as a strong, though not prohibitive, favorite to hold the seat.

20. Pennsylvania Likely D (14)

Gov. Tom Wolf (D)’s already-decent odds for a second term seem to have gone up in recent months. Republicans just came through a bruising primary; while the expected victor, State Sen. Scott Wagner (R), emerged, Wagner was hit by his main rival aggressively on his business record and anger issues. Wolf thus seems to have been the main winner of the nasty primary, as Wagner’s first introduction to much of the state has not been a particularly positive one. Wolf’s popularity has also been solid if not overwhelming. While Wagner, who has self-funding ability, has the time and money to turn the race’s trajectory around and surprise, it seems like Wolf’s position is getting stronger, and thus we are pushing this race into the Likely D category.

21. Vermont Likely R (19)

Improbably for a Republican in one of the bluest states, Gov. Phil Scott’s (R) main challenge in his re-election bid may actually come from his right. Scott has generally maintained sky-high approval ratings in his first term. However, he signed a package of gun-control legislation that has not been embraced by the conservative base in what has long been one of the union’s most pro-gun states. As a result, there is chatter that Scott may face a credible primary challenger, though thus far no one particularly serious has emerged. Democrats have not considered this race a top-tier target, meaning their most likely nominee is a “C” lister, utility exec Christine Hallquist (D), who would be the first transgender major-party gubernatorial nominee if nominated. If Scott were to be upset in the primary, this race could be a strong pickup opportunity for Dems, but for now we still consider him a fairly strong favorite for another term.

22. Arizona Likely R (21)

The bulk of the Likely category consists of close to a 50-50 mix of ultra-popular Governors in tough states and somewhat popular Governors in swingy states. We head back to the latter category here; Gov. Doug Ducey (R) has had solid if not overwhelming approval ratings as a mainstream conservative with slight libertarian leanings. Thus, even as his state looks set to trend left this year, he still seems in decent shape for a second term. Ducey has a primary challenge from ex-SoS Ken Bennett (R), who is more socially conservative but has underperformed in his 2014 gubernatorial and 2016 congressional runs. Thus, Ducey should be favored in the primary. Democrats have a pair of “B” to “C” list candidates in State Sen. Steve Farley (D), who has held down a purple seat in Tucson, and 2014 Superintendent nominee David Garcia (D), who narrowly lost a statewide race four years ago. Democrats are enthusiastic about their prospects in Arizona this year, but in a highly race-specific way: the Senate race, SoS contest, and Superintendent seat have gotten most of the attention and best candidates, while Ducey’s bid, the AG race, and Treasurer’s seat have gotten short-shrift. Things could change as the campaign wears on, but for now, we are marking Ducey as a solid but not overwhelming favorite.

23. Massachusetts Likely R (22)

Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is by many accounts the nation’s most popular Governor, with an approval rating topping 70% in most surveys. Baker has mastered the niche of his former mentor, 90s-era Gov. Bill Weld (R), at being an upscale non-ideological centrist. That is such a strong profile for a Massachusetts Republican that Baker has even managed to get a large degree of implicit support from the state’s Democratic establishment. Baker will have a nuisance on his right in the primary, as the state convention allowed nutcase minister Scott Lively (R) onto the ballot as a protest against Baker’s moderation. But the general seems likely to not pose much difficulty for him. Baker is so strong that his prior most likely opponent, Newton Mayor Setti Warren (D), was pushed out of the race. Instead, Dems will choose between two “C” listers, with Gov. Patrick admin official Jay Gonzalez (D) likely the favorite over 1994 LG nominee Bob Massie (D). It’s tough to entirely count out a Democrat in a state as blue and #resistance heavy as Massachusetts, especially this year, but Baker is in about as strong a position as could be expected for a second term.

24. Tennessee Likely R (26)

Both sides have primaries for this open seat. Rep. Diane Black (R), a personally wealthy and high-profile establishment conservative, looks like the front-runner on the GOP side. However, she faces three rivals, one of whom, businessman Randy Boyd (R), appears to be gaining some ground. Two others, State House Speaker Beth Harwell (R) and businessman Bill Lee (R), seem longer-shots. On the Dem side, moderate ex-Nashville Mayor Karl Dean (D) is facing the more populist State Rep. Craig Fitzhugh (D) in a primary with no clear favorite. Both sides seem likely to field strong nominees; thus, the deep-red lean of the state leads us to mark Republicans as solid but not overwhelming favorites to hold the seat.

25. South Carolina Likely R (24)

Gov. Henry McMaster (R) finally got his chance at the Governor’s office last year when his predecessor Nikki Haley (R) was tapped as UN ambassador. McMaster hasn’t been particularly controversial in office, but hasn’t been particularly popular either, functioning mostly as a mainstream conservative caretaker. That position has drawn him three rivals in the primary. His best-funded and most serious rival is Haley admin official Catherine Templeton (R), who is running on a more antiestablishment fiscal conservative platform in the Haley/Sanford vein. McMaster also faces his own LG, Kevin Bryant (R), a social conservative from the Upstate. Also in the race are D-turned-R ex-LG Yancey McGill (R) and businessman John Warren (R). His rivals may hold McMaster to a runoff, but for now they seem unlikely to actually deny him renomination. In the general, Democrats are somewhat excited about the candidacy of State Rep. James Smith (D), who is probably favored for the nomination over consultant Phil Noble (D). McMaster’s incumbency, decent popularity, and the lean of the state probably leave him favored in both rounds, but Smith is a credible enough candidate for us to keep this race on the edge of the playing field.

26. Oregon Likely D (27)

Gov. Kate Brown (D) has broken with Oregon’s long tradition of relatively moderate Democratic Governors in her first term. Brown has pursued some quite polarizing fiscal and social liberal initiatives in her term, including a tax hike and a bill to subsidize all abortions in the state. However, Oregon is a blue state with a large, likely highly energized #resistance turnout this year. And that means Brown has maintained middling to good approval ratings. Republicans have a strong rival to Brown in State Rep. Knute Buehler (R). Buehler is a moderate orthopedic surgeon who has held down a blue-leaning State House seat for two terms and overperformed as a first-time candidate in his 2012 loss to Brown for the SoS job. He is considered a rising star on the state’s thin GOP bench. However, he doesn’t seem to be energizing the state’s grassroots, as his moderation meant that he was held to a plurality win by two “D” list opponents in the primary. Buehler is a strong general election candidate with some wedge issues to use against Brown, though the primary doesn’t raise confidence about his candidate skill. As a result, this race is a long-shot but still on-the-board pickup opportunity for the GOP.

27. New York Likely D (32)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is seeking a third term, and until recently it looked like he would have little trouble getting it. However, Cuomo has always had issues on his left flank, as he is more of a fiscally-moderate and socially ultra-liberal latter-day Rockefeller Republican than in line with the current far-left leanings of the Dem grassroots. As a result, he now has a credible primary challenger in actress Cynthia Nixon (D). Nixon secured the endorsement of the left-wing Working Families Party, meaning the general election is likely to be a three-way race if Cuomo wins the primary (and may be a three-way race if he loses, as the incumbent has minor-party lines as well.) Republicans also got a credible contender for the seat in Dutchess CE Marc Molinaro (R), who is little-known but has a strong profile as a young leader of a midsized Hudson Valley county. Cuomo is popular, and his challengers have so far not made a huge impact. But with the strong likelihood of a three-way general in which Cuomo will be squeezed from both the right and left, we can’t count out the possibility of a plurality win for Molinaro. As a result, we are moving this race to the edge of the Likely D category.

Safe for Incumbent Party:

28. Alabama Safe R (25)

Since ascending to the top job a year ago, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has found fairly solid footing in office, rising to become among the nation’s most popular Governors through quiet competence and positive comparison to her scandal-plagued predecessor. That popularity seems likely to be a problem for her rivals, many of whom began laying the groundwork for runs for this seat before then-Gov. Robert Bentley (R) imploded in scandal and Ivey took his place. Ivey’s rivals are continuing in the contest, but given the Governor’s popularity their odds are looking longer. In the primary, Ivey’s most serious rival is Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (R), who has fundraised well. Two others, State Sen. Bill Hightower (R) and Minister Scott Dawson (R), may take enough votes to hold the race to a runoff. But overall Ivey is in the drivers’ seat in the primary. Democrats have had high hopes of making this seat competitive after the Alabama GOP’s series of scandals in recent years. They have drawn a pair of credible candidates in Tuscaloosa Mayor Scott Maddox (D) and ex-State Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb (D). However, unless Ivey is defeated in the primary, either will face a tough time defeating such a broadly popular incumbent. As a result, we are pushing this race over the line into the Safe R category.

29. South Dakota Safe R (29)

Republicans have a hotly contested primary for this open seat between two of the state’s biggest names, Rep. Kristi Noem (R) and AG Marty Jackley (R). Both are mainstream conservatives with high name recognition; Noem has been slightly ahead in primary polls but the race is likely to be highly competitive. Owing to the deep-red terrain of the state, either Republican will be heavily favored in the general; South Dakota’s 40-year streak of GOP Governors is the nation’s longest. However, Democrats do have a credible contender for this seat in State Sen. Billie Sutton (D). A young former rodeo rider, Sutton has fundraised well for this race and seems the strongest Democratic nominee in recent memory. However, he still faces a very tough climb against the state’s terrain. Thus, we are leaving this race in the Safe R category unless and until the GOP nominee makes a significant stumble.

30. Idaho Safe R (28)

Crowded primaries on both sides have yielded two credible nominees in LG Brad Little (R), an establishment conservative, and State Rep. Paulette Jordan (D), a moderate liberal pegged as a rising star. Idaho’s deep-red terrain means that Little will start the general as a very strong favorite, especially as his main rival for the nomination, Rep. Raul Labrador (R), had a right-wing constituency that is unlikely to defect to Jordan. Thus, the seat is likely to stay well within the Safe category unless Little makes a major unforced error.

31. Wyoming Safe R (31)

Arguably the slowest-starting race of all got a major jolt a few weeks ago, when billionaire energy exec and social conservative donor Foster Friess (R) jumped into the race. Friess has a history of foot-in-mouth disease, but his money and high profile seem likely to at least start him out as the strong favorite for the seat in America’s reddest state. Friess’s main rival is a more traditional pol, State Treasurer Mark Gordon (R), who seems a credible plan B for the GOP if Friess stumbles; there are also multiple lesser-known candidates in the race. For Democrats, ex-State Rep. Mary Throne (D) is the likely nominee. As she lost her State House seat last cycle, she doesn’t seem a particularly serious threat to upset Friess or Gordon barring something very unexpected.

32. Hawaii Safe D (30)

Gov. David Ige (D) was having a non-controversial if not terribly successful first term for his first three years in office until a sleepy Saturday morning this January. That morning, as you probably remember, a bureaucratic error sent the entire state a false alarm that a missile was incoming. Ige’s bumbling response to the incident seems to have left a major stain on his governorship. Combined with a widespread sense of him as a weak Governor, that has led much of the state’s Democratic establishment to desert him in the primary. Likely to oust Ige in August is one of the state’s longtime pols, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D). Hanabusa hails from the same faction of the state party as Ige, a fiscally-liberal, socially-moderate faction dominated by Asians. As a result, the other side of the party, a fiscally-moderate, ultra-socially-woke, largely-white faction, is on the sidelines, and the primary seems likely to be a referendum on Ige that the incumbent is unlikely to win. The third Dem in the race, State Sen. Clayton Hee (D), may peel off some anti-Ige votes but so far seems unlikely to be a major factor. Republicans have a credible candidate for this race in spite of the state’s paper-thin GOP bench, in State Rep. Andria Tupola (R), who has held down a deep-blue district. Tupola might have a chance against Ige, but in the nation’s bluest state and with the non-controversial Hanabusa likely to win the primary, her odds are very long. Thus, we leave this race well into the Safe D category.

33. Nebraska Safe R (34)

And now we start to get into the races that just aren’t that interesting at all. Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) has been reasonably popular in office, and is a good fit for his deep-red state, though he has had some minor battles with the less-conservative legislature. He thus seems a very solid bet for a second term. Democrats have a credible recruit in party-switching State Sen. Bob Krist (D). However, unless Ricketts makes a major unforced error Krist would not seem to have an obvious angle of attack.

34. Texas Safe R (35)

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is another incumbent in very good shape for a second term. Texas has been trending left recently, but Abbott has continued to post strong approval ratings. He also benefits from a subpar opponent in Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), whose campaign has been plagued by poor fundraising, poor candidate skills, and a platform well to the left of what is still a red state. Thus, Abbott looks like a very strong favorite barring something unexpected.

35. Arkansas Safe R (33)

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) habitually ranks among the nation’s most popular Governors. Democrats had a very difficult time trying to find a challenger to him, eventually settling on little-known nonprofit exec Jared Henderson (D), who is about a sacrificial lamb level as it gets. In the deep-red state, Hutchinson should break little sweat this year.

36. California Safe D (36)

And now we come to the safest race of all. California is a deep-blue state whose immense size makes it even more difficult for Republicans to sway enough Democrats to gain traction. As a result, the GOP’s biggest battle in this race is not really to win, but rather to avoid a D-on-D general that could be disastrous for the party downballot. The clear favorite to take first in this race is LG Gavin Newsom (D), an establishment liberal who has high name recognition. Several candidates are in a scrum for second place, but the general thought is that the contest for second is between one R and one D. The Republican is businessman John Cox (R), a longtime political gadfly who served as chair of the Cook County, IL Republican Party and ran a vanity presidential campaign in 2008. More importantly though, Cox has self-funding ability, which has made him the stronger Republican bet in the ultra-expensive state where cash often conquers all politically. Cox has notably secured Trump’s endorsement in spite of not voting for the Donald last cycle. Cox’s main rival is ex-LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). Villaraigosa is running slightly to the right of Newsom, though not by much. However, his SoCal base has often punched below its weight in statewide race. The other Republican in the race is State Rep. Travis Allen (R). Allen has a longer history in the conservative cause in the state than Cox, but he doesn’t have his rival’s cash, and has thus been trailing Cox in polling. There are also three other notable Dems in the field who seem long-shots to advance, the somewhat moderate State Treasurer John Chiang (D), the far-left ex-Superintendent Delaine Eastin (D), and the establishment liberal 2014 CA-21 nominee Amanda Renteria (D). Overall, the big question is whether Cox or Villaraigosa will advance with Newsom – but if Cox moves on, he is all but guaranteed to lose the general. Thus, this race retains its spot as the safest seat of all.

2019 Races:

Kentucky Lean R

Gov. Matt Bevin (R) has had middling popularity in his first two years; while Bevin is among the most ideological conservatives in high office, he has proven a fairly good fit for his conservative state. However, the teachers’ union has been strongly opposed to Bevin, and has made some significant noise about targeting him in 2019. Bevin is thus likely to draw a significant challenge for re-election; the most commonly-speculated names are AG Andy Beshear (D), son of Bevin’s predecessor Steve (D), SoS Allison Lundergan-Grimes (D), and State Rep. Rocky Adkins (D). The lean of the state and incumbency probably mean Bevin is a favorite, but given education being a potential wedge issue, we are downgrading him from the Likely R to the Lean R category.

Louisiana Lean D

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) has had moderately strong approvals since winning his first term in an upset in 2015. Edwards’s record has been quite mixed, with several notable victories and several notable losses in his fights against the red state’s conservative business interests and legislature. Edwards is likely to draw a strong challenge for a second term; three credible Republicans who have indicated interest in the race include US Sen. John Kennedy (R), AG Jeff Landry (R), and Rep. Ralph Abraham (R). All are “A” listers who will have the lean of the state on their side. However, Edwards has decent approval ratings and well-honed campaign skills from his 2015 upset win, and will be far from a pushover. Indeed, his fairly strong approvals and the lack of a commitment to run from any of these Republicans lead us to mark Edwards as a very slight, but noticeable, favorite for a second term.

Mississippi Lean R

After four terms as AG, there is widespread speculation that AG Jim Hood (D) will pull the trigger on a run for Governor in 2019. Hood, who has been elected statewide easily through several tough cycles for Mississippi Democrats, is clearly Democrats’ strongest recruit for the race and likely the only Dem who could win statewide in the inelastic red state without an unforced error. Republicans have a deep bench here, but LG Tate Reeves (R) is being treated as the presumptive nominee. The general election clash between Hood and Reeves will likely be hotly contested, but the lean of the state leaves us to mark Republicans as moderate favorites to start.