REGINA—Andrew Scheer knows the knives are out for him.

What’s unclear is how seriously Scheer’s team is taking the anger felt by senior Tories after Monday’s disappointing election loss — or if anyone will step up to challenge the Conservative leader.

The Star spoke to several Conservative insiders, some connected to the Scheer campaign and some on the outside, who agreed to speak about internal party matters on condition they not be named.

What emerged from those conversations is a deep disappointment with the campaign’s performance in central and eastern Canada, anger with Scheer’s inner circle, and the belief that Scheer will have to work hard to survive a mandatory leadership review in April.

“April’s the convention, it’s a long time away. But it could be a bloodbath between here and there,” said one well-connected Tory.

“(But) it’s risky for anyone to come out and attack him now (from within the party), because if we’re in the middle of the civil war then Trudeau could orchestrate his own election.”

Scheer dismissed any notion that he would resign from the leadership in a morning press conference in his adopted home of Regina on Tuesday.

“Yes, I will continue as leader,” Scheer told reporters.

“We obviously are very happy with many aspects of the campaign. We obviously wish we had better results. But we point to the fact that we won the popular vote ... We have the strongest opposition in Canadian history.”

A senior Conservative official close to the Scheer campaign acknowledged raw feelings within the party. The rank-and-file as well as senior strategists saw this as a winnable election, with Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party dealing with multiple self-inflicted wounds.

But the source told the Star they were “encouraged” by Monday’s results that saw the Conservatives pick up more than 20 ridings despite a disappointing performance in every province east of Manitoba.

“What we’ll have to do is we’ll go and talk with the party and we’ll make it clear that someone who won more votes than Justin Trudeau, it’s the first step ... taking (the Liberals) down to a minority,” the Conservative official said. “And we’ll move forward from there.

“It’s a big broad party, and we’ll want to have as many conversations as possible.”

While the party increased its seat count from 97 to 121 and held Trudeau to a minority government, the Scheer campaign fell well short of its ambitions in Ontario and Quebec. The Conservatives needed significant gains in those provinces to win power. Instead, their share of the popular vote went down in both.

“Ontario was a disaster,” said one senior Conservative operative.

“We (have) nothing to show for all the work we did in the 905. Nothing.”

The disappointment isn’t limited to Ontario Conservatives. In an interview with Radio-Canada, Quebec Conservative MP Richard Martel — a high-profile candidate who retained Chicoutimi—Le Fjord for the party Monday night — contrasted Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet’s ascent with Scheer’s performance in the province.

“I think it’s not the best campaign he’s done,” Martel told the French-language broadcaster.

Even Alain Rayes, Scheer’s Quebec lieutenant who figured prominently in the party’s efforts to recruit candidates and win over Quebec voters, acknowledged Scheer’s campaign fell short in the province.

“It is clear that we would not have this discussion this morning if we had been better,” Rayes said.

Sources within Scheer’s campaign are advising the Tory chief to learn from the mistakes of the 2011 Ontario Progressive Conservatives, who reduced a majority Liberal government to a minority.

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Scheer is being urged not to do what the PCs at Queen’s Park did at the time and fixate on a Liberal scandal — in that case former premier Dalton McGuinty’s decision to scrap two gas-fired power plants in Oakville and Mississauga. The result was that the provincial Liberals won a majority in 2014.

Some around the Tory leader believe it would be unproductive to focus on the SNC-Lavalin affair instead of trying to articulate a positive alternative vision to tackle everyday issues that resonate far beyond Parliament Hill.

Ontario Tories who are in Scheer’s corner are imploring him to try to appear as a prime minister in waiting instead of continuing as an opposition leader who opposes for the sake of opposing.

That means resisting the temptation to relitigate the SNC-Lavalin affair in committee hearings.

But Scheer has other internal challenges.

A high-ranking Conservative involved in the campaign in Ontario said while unpopular Premier Doug Ford deserves some blame, Scheer needs to wear the defeat in Canada’s most-populous province.

“This was a bad campaign. Scheer is the 21st-century Joe Clark,” said the insider, referring to the former Tory leader who was briefly prime minister 40 years ago.

“You can’t pin all of this on Ford.”

Another plugged-in Tory said because there will likely be another federal election before the 2022 provincial campaign, the Conservatives need a totally different game plan — and perhaps a new leader.

“No one is going to confuse Lisa Raitt or Rona Ambrose with Ford,” the second insider said, pointing to the former Milton MP defeated Monday and the ex-cabinet minister from Alberta.

But multiple Conservative sources said, despite whispers of rivals starting to organize a challenge, no future leadership contender is ready to publicly challenge the leader.

Others are advising a shift in policy. Former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, who is now the mayor of Brampton, said the Tories need to get with the times when it comes to the environment.

“I can’t help but agree with the always insightful Chantal Hébert: ‘This should be the last election that any party believes it can win without having a serious plan for climate change.’ I couldn’t agree more,” said Brown, who embraced federal carbon-pricing as PC leader only to have Ford turn against it when he took over the provincial party.

“Modern conservatives like Andrew need to recognize you can’t say you believe in climate change and then not be prepared to do something about it.”

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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