When Walt Disney Co. purchased Lucasfilm of San Francisco for $4.06 billion three years ago, the entertainment conglomerate didn’t just acquire the rights to “Star Wars.” Disney bought the business equivalent of a bulletproof vest.

Or should I say light saber? The company found a weapon that can absorb or deflect anything thrown at it.

To fully appreciate the value of a rare property like “Star Wars,” one must not only factor in the potential box office gross of the new movie this month, plus sales of Death Star-themed barbecue grills and bicycles, but also the franchise’s ability to weather both time and adversity. Like the Beatles, “Star Wars” is the rare entertainment property whose popularity transcends generations and even the quality of its individual products.

You can’t put a price tag on such invincibility.

“‘Star Wars’ is just too big to fail,” Chris Taylor, author of “How Star Wars Conquered the Universe” said in an interview. “We will always revere the original trilogy, whether it deserves it or not.”

Since 1977, the year the first “Star Wars” debuted, the franchise has generated $42 billion in revenue, 76 percent of that coming from physical goods like toys and books. Tim Nollen, a Macquarie Securities analyst who follows Disney, recently estimated that “The Force Awakens,” which opens Friday, could produce $5 billion in merchandise sales in the first year alone.

But consider this unthinkable (and unlikely) possibility: that “The Force Awakens,” directed by J.J. Abrams, and its two planned sequels are critical stink bombs. After all, journalists and fans panned the three prequels that creator George Lucas directed in the late 1990s and early 2000s: “The Phantom Menace,” “Attack of the Clones” and “Revenge of the Sith.”

And further: Could “Star Wars” survive not one but two highly anticipated, but ultimately botched, attempts to revive the franchise? As a big “Star Wars” fan, I only have so much heart to break and nerves to shred. To put a slight spin on the Gettysburg Address, these new movies, if bad, will test whether this franchise, or any franchise so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.

Back to Gallery Will new ‘Star Wars’ movie stink? For sales, it... 5 1 of 5 Photo: Liz Hafalia, The Chronicle 2 of 5 Photo: Liz Hafalia, The Chronicle 3 of 5 Photo: Liz Hafalia, The Chronicle 4 of 5 Photo: Liz Hafalia, The Chronicle 5 of 5 Photo: Liz Hafalia, The Chronicle









First, it’s important to understand who exactly makes up the fan base of “Star Wars.” Or more specifically, the fan base that actually matters — at least from a financial perspective.

When the first film opened in theaters nearly four decades ago, the film captured the imagination of older sci-fi enthusiasts. By the time “The Phantom Menace” arrived in 1999, Lucas tried to shift the focus and tone of the franchise to appeal to kids (hence the lazy dialogue and presence of annoying characters like Jar Jar Binks).

Critics and geeks like myself may have decried the prequels, but kids seemed to like it well enough, which resulted in healthy sales of tickets and merchandise.

“We had great numbers — off the charts,” said Paul Palmer, a former senior brand manager with Hasbro, who managed the toy maker’s relationship with Lucasfilm during the first two prequels. “Fans bought heavily into the franchise.” From 1995 to 2011, Hasbro sold $5.5 billion worth of “Star Wars”-related toys.

So if the new “Star Wars” films contain enough action and fun to keep generations of kids at least reasonably interested, the franchise should do fine, said Palmer, who now teaches marketing at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business.

“My 10-year-old son is already fully invested in ‘Star Wars,’” he said. “‘Star Wars’ is the first truly global evergreen brand.”

Another key group: overseas audiences. Not only do consumers in developing countries like China and Brazil have considerably more purchasing power since the turn of the century, but also, foreigners are much more forgiving of clunky scripts than English-speaking moviegoers, author Taylor said.

“When you’re dubbing into a foreign language, the wooden dialogue doesn’t really matter that much, especially where English is still an exotic language,” he said. “They just want to be a part of the phenomenon.”

Still, part of what made “Star Wars” valuable was the lags between a precious few movies. Sixteen years passed between “Return of the Jedi,” the last movie of the original trilogy, and “The Phantom Menace.” A decade has elapsed between “Revenge of the Sith” and “The Force Awakens.”

“‘Star Wars’ thrived on scarcity,” Taylor said.

Not anymore. “The Force Awakens” is the first of a planned trilogy. In addition, Disney is planning “Rogue One,” a story that focuses on the immediate events leading up to the plot of “A New Hope,” plus two spin-off entries that focus on Han Solo and Boba Fett.

In other words, there will be no shortage of “Star Wars” films in the near future.

That’s why it’s crucial for Lucasfilm to create new characters for people to love, said Michael Avila, CEO of AviLand Productions and the co-creator and former executive producer of NBC’s long running movie show “Reel Talk.”

Given the critical failure of the prequels, “Star Wars” has subsisted on nostalgia for Luke Skywalker, Han Solo and Princess Leia from the original trilogy, Avila said.

But as time passes, he said, “We need to see more of the universe beyond the original characters.”

Disney does have one big advantage. Though Lucas directed four of the six prior movies, the new films will feature a diverse pool of directors, each of whom will bring their own style and perspective to the story.

“One of the (new) movies has to be good,” Taylor said.

In any case, the basic heart of “Star Wars” remains unchanged, regardless of any single film’s quality. That’s what Disney paid for.

“I don’t think there is any other franchise that’s as self-sustaining,” Avila said. “‘Star Wars’ is one of the rare properties that people want to make sure they have as much as possible.”

Thomas Lee is a San Francisco columnist. E-mail: tlee@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @ByTomLee