August footy has nothing on March and April. Sure, August has the run home to the finals, with a few frantic teams trying to displace each other in the top eight or top four. But the real crunch time in the hunt for finals spots is now - the early rounds do more than any other point in the season to set teams on a different path through the year.

Each AFL club wins an average of 11 games per home-and-away season. But this average is dramatically different for teams that win their early games compared to those that lose at the start of the year. On average, sides that win their first game of the year go on to win 12.3 matches in the home-and-away season, while Round 1 losers average only 9.7 regular-season wins. So, teams that start the season with a victory average 2.6 more regular season wins than those that start the season with a loss. That's a huge difference, far bigger than the disparity at other points in the season.

The early rounds play a huge role in clubs' fates for the year. Start the season with two wins and your team is on pace to win 14 for the year and almost certainly make the finals. Kick off with a couple of losses, and all of a sudden you're on pace to win only eight games all year. Win the first four straight, and history suggests you're on pace to win 15.2 regular season games; lose the first four and you can expect to win an average of just 5.4 for the year.

Average wins over the home-and-away season for teams with a given record in their first four games:

Wins or losses in the first few weeks of the season can put sides on very different paths. Teams almost always go on to make the finals after winning their first four - in fact, 83.8 percent of clubs since 1994 that have started the season 4-0 went on to make the finals.

Missing the finals after a perfect start to the year is very uncommon. The 2013 Bombers did it - but they won enough games to play in September before being disqualified by the league. The 2012 Bombers also fell short after winning their first four straight, as did the 2010 Lions. Beyond that, we have to look back into the murky depths of history to the 2000 Magpies, 1999 Cats and 1996 Crows, the only other teams to have had a perfect first month of the season and then miss the eight.

By contrast, no team has ever lost their first four games and then made the finals. Since 1994, when the top eight was introduced, 32 teams have started the season with a winless first month - the best that any of them have managed to do was the Kangaroos' 10 wins in 2011, which left them a game and a half short of playing finals footy.

The difference between sides that have gone 3-1 in the first month and those that split the month 2-2 is particularly telling. Win three of the first four and, history suggests, you've got a 79.3 percent chance of making the finals. Win two and lose two, and you're not even a 50 percent chance.

Of course, there are examples of teams that started the year shakily but went on to play September football. The most successful of these were the 2014 Swans - they won just one game in their first month but went on to finish the regular season on top of the ladder. The 2014 Richmond side also gives some cause for optimism for slow-starting teams. The Tigers went 1-3 in the first month, and won only three from their first 13, before stringing together an improbable run home to snatch eighth place on the ladder. But these examples are the exception, rather than the rule. An overwhelming proportion of teams (74.2 percent) that win only one game in their first four do not make the finals. History tells us the first month matters.