New England’s free-agency strategy has an air of unpredictability. Whenever "experts" assert that the organization will zig, they inevitably zag. Some signings are fairly predictable. But more often than not, fans are scrambling for information on yet another no-name acquisition.

The "Patriot Way" regarding free-agency will likely never be broken down to a definite formula by the general public, but there are some guidelines the team typically employs to narrow down its pool.



WARNING: We are still dealing with the New England Patriots, so these are liable to change for any unforeseen reason and make me look like a complete fraud.



Scheme Fit

Head coach Bill Belichick's scheme is extremely adaptable and contains roles for many different types of players. There are limits, however, and wide-receiver is arguably the least flexible position on the roster.

It seems that every offseason, Patriots supporters bombard every possible media outlet insisting that the team needs an outside receiver. These cries have been justified in almost every offseason since Randy Moss’ departure, but many fans are under the false impression that a boundary receiver must also be a deep-threat. Mike Wallace was near the top of some New Englanders’ free-agent wish-lists in 2013 for just this reason.

While the threat of the deep ball is always a significant advantage for an offense, New England values many other traits above straight-line speed.

What makes Tom Brady so dangerous is his pin-point accuracy at the short and intermediate levels of the field. While the 17-year veteran still has the ability to drop dimes 50-yards downfield, that isn’t what makes the offense hum.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ system primarily utilizes smaller receivers who win with quickness, but Brandon LaFell provided a pretty good picture of what the team expects from its "X" or boundary receivers. During his 2014 campaign, LaFell showed that having a strong, big-bodied guy outside the numbers who is intelligent enough to read defenses through Brady’s eyes, savvy enough to run a full route-tree, and willing to be a mauler in the run game makes this team extremely difficult to stop.

When assessing a free-agent's potential fit with the team, scheme familiarity also goes a long way. Danny Amendola and Keyshawn Martin are two acquisitions who made relatively easy transitions after playing under Belichick disciples Josh McDaniels and Bill O'Brian, respectively. Assistant and former Browns general manager Mike Lombardi's familiarity with Jabaal Sheard also played a big part in the edge defender signing with the team last offseason.

A receiver who has good size and runs the 40-yard dash in 4.3 seconds can flourish in the right system. But if he can’t make contested catches on the boundary, get on the same page as TB12, or is limited to running two routes, don’t expect him to be a Patriot for long, if at all.

The same applies to situational pass-rushers with little-to-no special teams value and right-footed punters.



Team Need

When a talented player who fits New England’s scheme hits the open market and shows interest in potentially joining the team, some fans consider it a foregone conclusion that said player will be wearing nautical blue and silver in the upcoming season. Such leaps fail to consider a very important aspect of roster-building: team need.

Receiver Mohamed Sanu is an excellent example. The Rutgers product is a versatile weapon who has proven productive, and at times lethal, thanks to creative offensive coordinators who have maximized his talent. Sanu’s favorited tweets are flooded with acknowledgments of Patriots fans pleading for the soon-to-be-former Bengal to join the team, armed with the allure of playing with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in an offense that values the slot position like few others.

To many, this would seem like a match made in heaven. But the reality is, barring an unforeseen contract snag with Danny Amendola, Sanu’s chances of becoming a Patriot appear slim. The roster is full of receivers who are best suited at the "Z" and in the slot. What it really needs is a big, physical boundary receiver who is proficient at working the intermediate level of the defense.

Sanu’s skill-set would be redundant in New England’s offense. Also, despite standing at 6’2" and weighing in at 210 lbs., he is best working the middle of the field from the slot position, where Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman do most of their damage.

How a player fills the team's current or short-term future needs is an important factor to consider when drooling over the idea of potential Patriots.



Player's Desired Contract, Role

When hitting free-agency, some players are willing to take less money and a reduced role in order to stay with a team or play for a serious contender.

Players also look for playing time, a big pay-day, or in most cases both. These pursuits are understandable when one realizes that even athletes have families to support and futures to plan for. Additionally, like most workers, players want their talents to be justly utilized and to be compensated fairly for their efforts. Despite these realities, a player chasing money and a starting job is still maligned by many, and Patriots fans are no exception.

New England has a reputation for being stingy in free agency, opting to sign bargain-bin players and aging veterans to fill a specific role instead of big-name stars. Their strategy draws the fan-base’s ire almost annually, but it has also breathed new life into previously unproductive or declining careers, turning cast-offs like Mike Vrabel, Rob Ninkovich, and Patrick Chung into fan favorites.

Regardless of what the general public thinks of this approach, it is hard to argue with Belichick and director of player personnel Nick Caserio’s success, so it is unlikely the organization will change its ways anytime soon. Consequently, if a player whose market value doesn’t match what New England perceives the player’s value to be based on team need, fit, etc., you can forget about them becoming a Patriot. *cough* Marvin Jones *cough*



Off-Field History

New England has taken chances on a number of players with tumultuous pasts and tattered reputations. The closeness and professionalism in the locker room allows the Patriots to be one of very few teams that can comfortably take risks on volatile players. The organization does its homework on potential projects, and internal divisiveness of any kind is very rare.

Typically, the higher the risk in acquiring the player, the higher his potential payoff must be. Failed projects Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco were, and still are, two of the most notorious players in terms of personality in recent history. However, the immense talent they’d shown throughout their careers earned them a shot at the Patriots’ roster.

So, if the mid-tier free agent signing of your dreams is on the market, but he’s failed three drug-tests in the past two seasons, an indication of very poor decision-making, you may want to temper your expectations.



Organization's Relationship With a Player, Agent

An organization’s relationship with a particular player or agent can also have an impact on the likelihood of a player being signed, though not quite as profoundly as other factors. Hostility on one or both ends can scare a player away from even considering signing with a team or create friction when negotiating contracts, leaving less room for concession.

DeAngelo Williams is one player who has voiced his personal disdain for the Patriots multiple times, making it clear that he intends never to play for the team. Although Darrelle Revis can attest that these sentiments are not always set in stone.

Agents serve as business medium’s between teams and players, making the agent’s interpretation of offers made for the client or the team's analysis of the client’s worth very important. A contract offer or analysis could be deemed disrespectful to the player and pollute or even destroy negotiations.

An incident like this occurred in 2013 when Robert Kraft and Wes Welker’s agents publically disputed the temperament of their contract discussions, with each side giving a different account of how the team valued Wes.

As in life, personal relationships are extremely valuable, if underrated, in football.