Madison, Wis. – Under the July sun, you may spot political squalls on the horizon of this green city's Lake Mendota. That's what you get when a Republican red governor runs for president in a state that usually breaks Democratic blue on the electoral map.

Whether that governor would actually carry his own state – with a fairly liberal, active electorate – in the general presidential election in 2016 is quite the parlor game.

Word's going door to door in this capital city that Gov. Scott Walker is officially running for president, with a launch planned on July 13. All the talk about him walking the walk to the White House is getting real now, here in the state where the Republican Party itself was founded in the 1850s: Wisconsin. This is also a state, by the way, where the Progressive Party has deep roots.

Walker plans to make political hay out of being the only Midwesterner in the Republican presidential field, now top-heavy with Southerners. "Midwest [is] key to Walker strategy," the Wisconsin State Journal noted. Riding his Harley-Davidson (the company is headquartered in Milwaukee) is part of the plain folks image. Of course, if Ohio Gov. John Kasich jumps into the pool of contenders, that could change the Walker formula that starts with a strong early victory in next-door Iowa come the frigid chill of February. (Only a Midwesterner knows how bad it can be.)

But feelings about Walker are decidedly mixed here in the state capital, with some bitter memories of a movement to recall him that failed. Walker survived the challenge to his approach on collective bargaining with public employees. The victory made him a conservative media darling in the national spotlight a few years back. It also attracted checks from the conservative Koch brothers. Walker was subsequently re-elected governor, but his support in Wisconsin has been "waning" recently, according to the Wisconsin State Journal.

Here's the irony: The harder Walker runs to the right to cement his position as a conservative front-runner for his party's primary nomination, the less popular he is at home, even with Republican state lawmakers. A move to clamp down on the state's open-records law just went awry.The academic community of the University of Wisconsin is warily anticipating yet another showdown: Walker may (or may not) declare war on the traditional tenure system. That's sure to win him debating points and votes, but might hurt him here at home. Another weakness Walker will likely be forced to face: His 2010 campaign promise to create a ton of new jobs is falling flat in Wisconsin's sluggish economy.

Walker is not a guy people feel neutral about, a stand-out even in a polarized era. Curiously, his political idol is Ronald Reagan, yet he has none of the genial charm that helped Reagan voters cross political lines. As my dad, a Wisconsinite, observed, most politicians like to be liked, but not Walker. Indeed the governor seems to relish his unpopularity with the other side, refusing to moderate harsh opposition to reproductive rights and to same-sex marriage. And he's enraged University of Wisconsin supporters by suggesting budget cuts for the renowned research institution, while proposing the Milwaukee Bucks receive millions of public funds for a new professional basketball arena.

Here in bookish Madison, anyway, it balances out well: Many in the liberal professoriate love to hate Walker, and, by some law of political physics, he loves to be hated by them. The governor's mansion in Maple Bluff is on the other side of Lake Mendota from the university's colorful Memorial Union Terrace.