Bracket

WHEN: 2/27-3/5

WHERE: Campus sites

TEAM TO BEAT: Defending champ and top seeded FGCU certainly has to be considered the team to beat. The Eagles returned nearly everyone from last year’s championship team, and added a dynamic scoring point guard in Brandon Goodwin from UCF. With Goodwin in the fold, this is no longer a team with a dominating frontcourt and an iffy backcourt. The Eagles are capable of scoring from anywhere. That said, the focus of Joe Dooley’s offense is still getting the ball to the rim as often as possible (15th nationally in FGA rate at the rim, 31st in FG% at the rim) via a frontcourt of the mercurial Marc Eddy Norelia, Meech Morant, and Antravious Simmons, or via penetration from Goodwin and Zach Johnson. Defensively, the Eagles were the best unit in the ASUN (basically tied with Lipscomb in both offensive and defensive efficiency), and feature a lock down defender on the perimeter in Johnson and major rim protector in ASUN DPOY Morant. Where can the Eagles struggle? If you throw a zone at Dooley’s squad or wall off the paint effectively, they shot a woeful 28% from 3 in league play and don’t really have a facilitator in the high post against zones (Ray Tucker perhaps?). The Eagles mitigate that poor 3PT shooting by crashing the offensive glass relentlessly. FGCU will host last year’s tournament crashers 8 seed Stetson in a rematch of last year’s title game. The Hatters nearly pulled off what would have been one of the more bizarre occurrences in championship week history, as having been disqualified from competing in the NCAA Tournament due to academics, they would have had to cede the title to top seeded UNF (a team that had already been eliminated) had they defeated FGCU. As it were Stetson lost in OT in a thrilling title game, and became a mere footnote to history. This year’s Hatters are essentially the same team as last year’s, a multiple ball handler driven transition offense that has found a little more balance with the return of Brian Pegg down low. Stetson did in fact give FGCU some issues in both regular season games (although the second didn’t carry much significance). In fact, Stetson probably should have won in DeLand as the quickness of Rivera and Myles was an issue. Think Drake’s speed boats vs the Spanish Armada. Corey Williams also went almost strictly zone in the second meeting, but FGCU obviously knows that’s in the playbook, having just seen it a few days ago. But back to the Eagles, when FGCU ran into trouble in league play this year, it was when teams shot over their compact defense (Lipscomb) or had the bigs to contend with them in the paint (USC Upstate), which is a perfect segue to…

IF NOT THEM THEN: 2 seed Lipscomb has to be viewed as a very serious contender in this tournament. When you think of Lipscomb, think Belmont, as Casey Alexander runs the same up tempo, three point reliant, transition drag screen offense as his mentor Rick Byrd. Alexander’s offense is much more efficient this year as he found his “Evan Bradds” in WKU transfer Rob Marberry. Marberry has at times feasted on easy looks created by defenses overplaying PG Nate Moran and wings Garrison Mathews and Josh Williams on the perimeter. Mathews has developed into something of an unstoppable offensive force with the ball in his hands, as he can create offense in a multitude of ways. The Bisons are also an improved defensive team this year, with Alexander willing to extend pressure (more so) when FR Kenny Cooper is on the floor, and essentially abandoning the zone that he utilized at times last year. Lipscomb’s depth has taken a hit of late with some injuries, particularly in the frontcourt, but there’s no question that the Bisons are capable of winning the whole thing. Unfortunately they’re also on the same side of the bracket as North Florida, who swept them in the regular season. Lipscomb will host 7 seed NJIT on Monday. The Highlanders have had to regroup after the devastating loss of do everything guard Damon Lynn, a player as valuable to his team as anyone for any team in the entire country. NJIT has a bit of momentum heading in, having won two straight to close the regular season, their first two wins since losing Lynn for the season. The Highlanders are a good rebounding team thanks to the addition of USA transfer Abdul Lewis and do everything wing Tim Coleman, but they don’t matchup well with Lipscomb, although the Bisons did come out flat in a similar situation in last year’s ASUN tourney.

SLEEPERS: 3 seed North Florida went 5-1 vs their half of the bracket (and the one loss was when NJIT had Lynn and he went off for 33), and have a trio of players who have won this thing before, led by electric scoring guard Dallas Moore. The Osprey have struggled when teams take advantage of Driscoll’s philosophy to rarely, if ever double the post, relying on a trio of shot blockers in Davenport, Aminu, and Banks to hold their own as the perimeter overplays the three point line. That didn’t against the Upstates and the FGCUs of the league, but as I mentioned, those teams are on the other side of the bracket. UNF can also struggle to find offense outside of uber scorer Moore, and the whole thing can often devolve into Moore isos. Fortunately he’s talented enough to deliver on most nights. UNF has a tricky first round game with 6 seed Jacksonville, their River City Rumble counterpart. UNF swept the regular season against their rivals, and the old adage is “it’s hard to beat a team three times”, and while Tony Jasick is a very good coach, the simple truth is that JU isn’t built to take advantage of UNF where you can exploit them. The Dolphins are a three point reliant offense and a defense reliant on turning you over with some pressure. If you don’t turn it over, you’re likely going to find an easy bucket. Additionally, JU’s top scorer JR Holder has been mitigated by the all over athleticism and mobility from guys like Chris Davenport in both meetings.

FGCU probably wasn’t pleased to see USC Upstate end up on the 4 seed right below them. The Spartans are the only team with the frontcourt capable of contending with FGCU in the paint, thanks to big Mike Buchanan and the more mobile, pick and popper Phil Whittington. The issue for Eddie Payne all year is that he has to limit both of their minutes (Whittington because he fouls like a machine and Buchanan simply because he’s too big), but thankfully for Payne the tournament isn’t a back to back to back format, and this is why he’s been limiting his minutes, to keep him fresh when it really matters. Payne is also a master of zone defenses, a major plus against FGCU, and has a lethal perimeter shooter in Mike Cunningham to keep teams from completely sucking down on his frontcourt. What he doesn’t have is a ballhandler. Cunningham is much more effective off the ball, but unfortunately that simply isn’t an option for Payne. It’s no knock on Cunningham’s ball skills, because they’re solid, it’s just that teams can sic their best perimeter defender in his jersey without consequence. You can beat Upstate fairly routinely in transition off the defensive glass, because they’re often caught with some heavy lumber out there, and their first opponent, 5 seed Kennesaw State, is an excellent defensive rebounding team with excellent shooters to complement Al Skinner’s ubiquitous flex offense against Payne’s zones. Led by the outstanding Kendrick Ray and sharpshooting wing Kyle Masterson (one of the best shooters in the entire country), the Owls are certainly capable of putting up points in Spartanburg. The question is can they defend an unleashed Big Mike? Aubrey Williams is a fantastic offensive player at the 5, but it will be on Jordan Jones to defend the Upstate monsters. This should likely be the best game of Monday night with a great chess match on the sidelines between Payne and Skinner.

PREDICTION: Lipscomb over FGCU

Monday Predictions:

Stetson +14.5

Upstate -3

Jacksonville +4

Lipscomb -9

Monday Predictions:

SEASON PREDICTIONS: 1759-1564-68, 337-291-16

Chattanooga -7.5 (I guess we’ll really see where this team is at tonight. It’s currently in the darkest place in D1.)

ETSU -2.5

ULL -3.5

Western Carolina -1.5

West Virginia PK

UNC -3.5

UL Monroe +5.5

Mercer -5.5

Arkansas St PK

UT Arlington -10

Texas St -4

Georgia Southern +3

Hampton -2.5

Oklahoma +14.5

Virginia Tech +1.5