Define “winning”

Partisanship makes it difficult to declare winners and losers in the moment. But over time, the following is generally accepted…

Terrain favors Trump

Corruption and ideology aside, Hillary is cunning and intelligent. Her ability to retain and recite information is commensurate w/ a Yale Law School-educated lawyer (her FBI and congressional testimony notwithstanding).

Beyond that, Hillary is a formidable debater. Despite having participated in ~30 highly-publicized debates, she hasn’t lost a single one on points (likability is another matter).

But the terrain of tonight’s debate favors Trump…

Tie goes to Trump: If its a tie, then Trump stood toe-to-toe w/ “the most qualified candidate ever“— thereby proving that he’s “fit” to be POTUS.

If its a tie, then Trump stood toe-to-toe w/ “the most qualified candidate ever“— thereby proving that he’s “fit” to be POTUS. Lester Holt: Holt is fair, but even if he isn’t– he lacks the prosecutorial chops of a Megyn Kelly, the skill of a Chris Wallace, the snark of an Anderson Cooper, or the blatant partisanship of Candy Crowley. This is as fair a fight as a Republican can reasonably expect.

Holt is fair, but even if he isn’t– he lacks the prosecutorial chops of a Megyn Kelly, the skill of a Chris Wallace, the snark of an Anderson Cooper, or the blatant partisanship of Candy Crowley. Silent audience: When audiences boo, Trump gets combative. When they cheer, Trump feels compelled to entertain them. The subdued presidential debate audience should help Trump appear presidential.

When audiences boo, Trump gets combative. When they cheer, Trump feels compelled to entertain them. Bitch: If Lester Holt is fair, and Trump pretends to be normal– Hillary has no choice but to try to bait Trump into a disproportionate response. If Trump can resist, Hillary risks coming off like a nag and/or bitch.

If Lester Holt is fair, and Trump pretends to be normal– Hillary has no choice but to try to bait Trump into a disproportionate response. Hillary’s IQ nullified: Politicians are coached to dumb down their answers for Americans (even more so for a general election debate audience)– thus nullifying Hillary’s edge in mental acuity.

Politicians are coached to dumb down their answers for Americans (even more so for a general election debate audience)– thus nullifying Hillary’s edge in mental acuity. Opening/closing statement: During the GOP primary, Trump consistently bungled his opening/closing statements. Kellyanne Conway won’t let that happen.

During the GOP primary, Trump consistently bungled his opening/closing statements. Trump trails slightly: Trump has a tendency to choke or self-destruct when he’s ahead. But when his back is against wall (bankruptcy, IA, WI, when he fell behind this summer), Trump refocuses and bears down. The best Trump is a desperate Trump.

Official projection

Trump wins on likability.

Post-debate reax (immediate)

Reax Bloomberg Hillary won / Trump is a liar / wait and see what the voters say. CNN Hillary won / Trump is a liar. MSNBC Hillary won / Trump is a liar. Fox News Trump won / Hillary is a liar (Hannity). Breitbart Trump dominated / Hillary is a liar. Info Wars / Gateway Pundit / Grocery Store Guy Heil Trump.

Post-debate polls

Winner Online polls Trump Focus Groups Inconclusive (edge to Hillary) Polls (later) Inconclusive (edge to Hillary)

Misc.

Trump and Bill Clinton will shake hands at some point.

Trump will mention Ivanka when “women” come up.

Ivanka and Chelsea will rekindle their friendship

Hillary has McCarthy/Welch-inspired “have you no decency” zinger holstered.

Hillary is 50/50 about demanding Trump apologize to minorities because 1 of 2 things could happen: (A) Trump embarrasses himself or (B) Trump shows contrition and “humanizes” himself.

* MFP is documented to be right 95.6% of the time.