Thousands of gun-rights supporters plan to rally at Virginia's Capitol on Monday in opposition to new gun control measures – a major event in an ongoing reckoning over state gun laws that's been spurred by changing demographics, a deadly mass shooting and an election in which Democrats took control of the statehouse for the first time in two decades on promises to tighten gun regulations.

The event, which takes place on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, has prompted Gov. Ralph Northam to declare a state of emergency and ban all firearms and other weapons from the 12-acre Capitol grounds in Richmond from Friday night to Tuesday evening – a controversial move that is being challenged by pro-gun groups in court.

The rally has drawn interest from hate groups and militias across the country, Northam said at a press conference Thursday, prompting concerns from officials eager to prevent the event from devolving into violence like that seen at a deadly racist demonstration in Charlottesville in 2017.

The Democratic governor said that law enforcement is aware of "threats of armed confrontation and assault" on the Capitol that include weaponized drones and militias storming the statehouse.

"State intelligence analysts have identified threats and violent rhetoric similar to what has been seen before other major events such as Charlottesville," he said Thursday.

Todd Gilbert, the state's GOP House minority leader, said in a statement that there are "legitimate concerns of a few bad actors hijacking the rally" but criticized the governor's emergency gun restrictions, saying they will "impede the ability of people to exercise not only their Second Amendment rights, but their First Amendment rights as well."

The potential for violence has led gun reform groups to cancel planned lobbying activities of their own Monday – a day in which special interest groups traditionally descend on the state Capitol to petition lawmakers.

Lori Haas, Virginia director of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence, says the group is canceling its annual Martin Luther King Jr. Day Vigil and Day of Advocacy, an event it has organized for nearly three decades.

"We have received information that heavily armed white supremacists will be seeking to incite violence," Haas said in a statement . "The individuals who seek to turn a day which is traditionally about citizens exercising their First Amendment rights and participating in the democratic process into a platform for political violence are trying to destroy our democracy. They refuse to accept the results of the 2019 election in Virginia – in which the people of the Commonwealth voted for stronger gun laws – and they are promoting the message that 'the people with the guns make the rules.'"

Among gun-rights advocates, the state's debate has garnered national attention. Gun Owners of America, a national pro-gun lobbying group, urged its email newsletter subscribers to attend Monday's rally and has described the state as "ground zero" for the fight for gun rights. Rally organizers expect out-of-state supporters to travel to Richmond, and both mainstream-conservative figures and far-right militias and leaders have called on followers to attend.

The situation in Virginia took on a heightened urgency when Democrats won total control of the statehouse in November. Their decisive victory represented a sudden and seismic shift in state politics, opening the door to a number of policy changes that for the last two decades stood no chance of being passed by the state legislature.

Unlike other states where lawmakers have proposed gun restrictions, Virginia is the home of the National Rifle Association and has a longstanding gun tradition that involves lax regulation of firearms. Though cities and suburbs have swelled in recent years with people migrating into the state for job opportunities, much of Virginia is still rural. Those areas, which far outstrip the cities and suburbs in land mass, if not in population, remain deeply conservative and sport a robust gun culture propped up by both politics and the demands of rural living.

Al Smith, a farmer from the area near Dublin, Virginia, a 2,500-person town in the southwest of the state, is organizing a bus to shuttle supporters from his area to Richmond on Monday morning. He says he's worried that the rifle he grew up hunting squirrels with will be banned under proposed legislation.

"I just want to be counted. I want people to know that what the governor is trying to do is wrong, trying to take away our rights under the Second Amendment that were given to us when this country was formed," Smith says.

He points to a cultural divide – between people like him and the newcomers that have flocked to the suburbs of Washington and swayed the priorities of the state's budget and politics.

"Us folks down here in southwest Virginia are tired of some folks around D.C. – and I'm not talking about people in D.C., I'm talking about Northern Virginia folks – deciding how we are going to live our lives and what we're going to do with our lives," Smith says.

Outside of rural areas, demographic change has coincided with and perpetuated a growing call for greater gun control, and a pair of mass shootings – the 2007 massacre at Virginia Tech University that killed 33 people and a recent shooting in May in Virginia Beach that killed 12 people – rattled Virginians. At the same time, the national movement for gun control measures has evolved into a powerful political force.

Democratic state politicians campaigned last year on a promise to enact greater restrictions on guns, and gun policy was the most important issue for voters heading into the election, according to polling. National gun reform groups – including Everytown for Gun Safety, a group financed by New York billionaire and presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg – poured money into the state to boost Democratic candidates.

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"Ten years ago, Democrats would almost never talk about guns because it wouldn't be a net gain for Democrats to talk about guns," says Stephen J. Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia. "But in the wake of Virginia Tech, Virginia Beach and the school shootings around the country, as well as the rising share of the Virginia electorate coming out of the suburbs, the pro-gun community is losing ground."

Still, gun rights appear to be a final, uncrossable line for Virginia conservatives who have watched the state tilt to the left in the last decade and seen Democrats claim every statewide office.

After the election, a growing list of county boards and city governments declared their localities "Second Amendment sanctuaries" – largely symbolic designations but ones that nonetheless represent a significant backlash to the shifting politics of the state. Though similar sanctuary movements have cropped up in a handful of western states recently, none have spread as quickly or as widely as the movement in Virginia.

Michael Hammond, legislative counsel for Gun Owners of America, described reforms proposed by Democrats as a "very, very extreme crazy agenda" that would put Virginia to the left of New York and California, two dark blue states with tight gun restrictions.

"First of all, you've had what up until now has been at least a purple state, you've had an election essentially bought by Michael Bloomberg for the purpose of enacting his entire anti-gun agenda," Hammond says.

Fears of new restrictions aren't unfounded.

Since the legislative session started this month, lawmakers have permanently banned firearms from the Capitol complex, and three gun bills have cleared the state Senate: a measure expanding background checks on all firearm sales, a bill limiting handgun purchases to one in a 30-day period and legislation allowing localities to ban guns in designated areas. Democrats have also proposed a so-called red flag law that allows authorities with a court order to remove guns from the possession of a person deemed to be a danger to themselves or others.

Virginians from both political parties overwhelmingly support universal background checks and red flag laws, and nearly 6 out of 10 people overall back a ban on the sale of assault rifles, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted in September.

Conservatives are most concerned, however, about an effort to ban assault rifles, which faces dubious odds even in the Democratic-controlled legislature.

The Virginia Citizens Defense League, the group organizing the rally and lobbying activities, described the proposed reforms as "the greatest threat to gun rights Virginians have faced in modern times."

Buses from more than 40 cities and counties across Virginia will bring supporters to Monday's rally, according to the league's website. Nearly 6,000 people have marked themselves as "going" on a Facebook page for the event and the league has told police to expect upward of 50,000 people, though authorities are reportedly skeptical of that estimate.

The rally is meant to be peaceful and attendants are discouraged from bringing long guns like assault rifles, the league said in an informational document about the event. The document also instructs supporters to "just ignore" people from the "other side."

The league also said various militia groups "from Virginia and nearby states have graciously volunteered to provide security" but did not name the groups. Phillip Van Cleave, the group's president, did not respond to requests for comment.

The Daily Beast reported that several far-right figures banned from Charlottesville after the 2017 white nationalist rally have indicated that they may join the event Monday, and anti-government, constitutional militia groups like the Oath Keepers and the III% Security Force are also planning to attend, according to reports. Internet chatter from members of the far-right that Monday could start the "boogaloo," a term used by the far-right for a violent civil war, according to the Daily Beast.

Less than a day after Northam announced the temporary state of emergency, the FBI on Thursday arrested three men they suspect are members of a neo-Nazi hate group and who had weapons and discussed traveling to Richmond for the rally.

Threats of violence and the possible presence of radical groups is unsettling some who plan to attend the rally to peacefully petition lawmakers.

Facebook user Tom Bradley posted the Daily Beast article on the rally's event page, expressing frustration.

"Enough with the asides indicating violence. This is not the time nor the place," Bradley said. "We have not exhausted our options yet. But we will surely have our supporters in government turn against us if we show any sympathy for hostility at Lobby Day. Let us resolve to demonstrate and educate in peace."

Smith says threats of violence are detrimental to the aims of the rally.