Disney’s latest live action family outing hits theaters this weekend, as it will be fighting for first against Mission: Impossible – Fallout, which hopes to continues the franchises streak of strong holds in their second outings. Meanwhile, a slew of other films are opening nationwide as well; Fox’s YA adaptation The Darkest Minds, Lionsgate’s action comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, and political documentary Death of a Nation. Additionally, A24 is expanding Eighth Grade into a very wide 1,080 locations.

Christopher Robin is a bit of an odd duck among the summers nationwide releases, as it doesn’t quite seem like a visual spectacle blockbuster, which seems like the direction Disney is going with their live action titles. The closest comparison here would be Pete’s Dragon, which opened back in August of 2016 with around $21 million. With stronger brand recognition, Robin should land higher than that, but it may struggle to top $30 million.

Lionsgate is hoping to repeat the success of last years sleeper hit The Hitman’s Bodyguard, as they’re opening the similar-premised The Spy Who Dumped Me into approximately 3,000 locations. Bodyguard opened higher than anticipated and was able to remain in first for three weeks, more or less by default, yet still legged it out to over $70 million. The Spy lacks the same level of star power, though the combination of Kate McKinnon and Mila Kunis may be enough to get some female audiences in the door. Reviews haven’t exactly been stellar at a mediocre 55%, but once again, Bodyguard was able to pull in those numbers with significantly lower reception. Tracking has it at low teen millions for the weekend, which would be an okay start.

Fox is hopping on the YA trend about six years too late with The Darkest Minds, a sci-fi book adaptation in the vein of The 5th Wave. After the failures of various other YA adaptations like Allegiant and The Circle, it became clear that the trend had died out, yet here we are several years later; the $34 million budgeted action title has little to offer in its marketing outside of a vague “dystopian government versus teens” premise that has more than worn its welcome. Fox is expecting around $10 million, but that seems generous. Mid to high single digits seems like the most likely outcome here, with a chance to wind up a bit lower if things really go poorly.

Also hitting theaters this weekend is Death of a Nation, the latest political documentary from distributor Quality Flix, whose only other release was 2016’s Hillary’s America, which pulled in a fairly impressive $13 million during its run. This film is also targeting conservative audiences, and has unsurprisingly been demolished by critics (though, if anything, that will only help its odds this weekend). Unlike Hillary’s America or 2016: Obama’s America, however, it isn’t focused on a single Presidential candidate before an upcoming election. This could mean there’s not as much of an interest, but that remains to be seen. An opening of around $2.5-3.5 million seems likely.

Finally, A24 is going into wide release with their coming of age comedy Eighth Grade, which has done fantastic business in limited release so far. The film has also received universal nearly-universal critical acclaim, and has racked up over $3.3 million so far. Among A24’s latest nationwide releases, Lady Bird did very strong business in its expansion – around $4.2 million from a similar number of theaters – as did The Disaster Artist and Hereditary. Anything over $3 million would be a success, though it could wind up over $4 million if it really catches on, which isn’t at all unlikely considering Burnham’s built-in fanbase.

Predictions

Mission: Impossible – Fallout: $30.5 million Christopher Robin – $26 million The Spy Who Dumped Me – $14.8 million Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again – $8 million Hotel Transylvania 3 – $6.8 million

The Darkest Minds – $5.4 million

Eighth Grade – $3.8 million