By Eliot McKinley (@etmckinley)

Sebastian Giovinco’s free kick prowess is well documented, but what if your team is not blessed with a formica atomica to bang in 13 direct free kick goals over the last three seasons? How do MLS teams score, or not, from free kicks?

From 2015-2017, 12,728 free kicks were taken in MLS play in the attacking half, resulting in 272 goals. Free kicks can be taken a number of ways, a direct shot on goal, a cross into the box, long balls, through balls, or quick restarts, among others. The type of free kick restart is generally dictated by the position it is taken from. If a free kick is given close to goal, in the center of the field, a team will generally take a direct shot on goal (zone 14; 57.0% shots). Free kicks close to the goalline, but near the touchlines are most likely crosses (zones 13, 15, 16, 18; 57.1% crosses). Free kicks farther away from goal are almost always some other form of restart than a direct shot or cross (zones 10-12; 95.1%).

For the purposes of this analysis, any goal scored within 10 seconds of a free kick being taken is considered a goal resulting from a free kick. This allows for shots from rebounds, scrambles in the box, quick restarts to develop, and other events that, while not necessarily predictable, occur as a result of a team taking a free kick. A little over 2% of free kicks result in a goal within 10 seconds. As one would expect, free kicks taken closest to goal have the highest probability of scoring, regardless of type. Within 25 yards, free kicks are scored 13.0% of the time, 10.6% for 25-30 yards, 4.7% for 20-35 yards, and 1.4% for free kicks farther than 35 yards from goal. Shots taken directly from free kicks are converted at a rate almost double that of crosses from free kicks, and 8.5 times that of the other restart. However, once the distance from goal is greater than 35 yards crossing from a free kick will more likely result in a goal than a direct shot. The Team xG for all free kicks is very similar to the rate of goals scored for each type of free kick over the 2015-2017 seasons. So, to maximize your chances of scoring a free kick, you want to be close to goal and take a direct shot.