Six years ago, Metro-North added 240 trains per week in its weekend, off-peak and intermediate markets, leading to increases in the railroad's non-traditional markets

Commutes to and from Manhattan were 42.1 million last year, less than half the railroad's total ridership of 86.5 million

The railroad has also seen increases in station-to-stations rides between the Bronx and lower Westchester County

Employers are more willing to allow flexible work schedules, which has forced the railroad to adjust its train schedule

Six years ago, Metro-North rolled out the biggest service expansion in its history to pull in riders who weren't taking the train for the traditional commute to and from Manhattan.

More than 240 trains per week were added in the railroad’s weekend, off-peak and intermediate markets, an effort to attract riders who didn't take the train during the morning or evening rush or used it for station-to-station hops.

“We expect that this extraordinary service expansion will make the railroad more attractive than ever and that it will become the travel mode of choice to millions more in New York and Connecticut,” former Metro-North President Howard Permut said in March 2013.

It did.

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By one measure, between 2013 and 2018 ridership in the railroad’s non-commuter market to Manhattan increased to 29.3 million, up from 26.7 million according to an analysis of 30-year ridership trends Metro-North released this month.

Growth in the non-commuter market has far outpaced the commuter market over the past 30 years. While commuter ridership to and from Manhattan has increased 23 percent since 1988, non-commuter rides into the city have seen a nearly 100 percent bump.

The number of commuter rides to and from Manhattan was 42.1 million last year, less than half the railroad’s total ridership of 86.5 million. In 1988, the percentage was 62 percent, when Metro-North was still widely viewed as the railroad of the Westchester-to-Manhattan commuting set.

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A series of derailments and mishaps that began in 2013, the year the rollout began, forced Metro-North to reorder its priorities, with a greater focus on track safety and maintenance. Commuters are coping with crowded and canceled trains, and on-time performance dipped to 90 percent in 2018, the lowest in years.

But throughout those setbacks the railroad's ridership numbers continued to tick upward, especially in the non-traditional markets, a trend that dates back decades. In 1994, the railroad dropped "Commuter" from its name to reflect its changing mission.

The growth has become more pronounced in the years since the 2013 service expansion when more trains were added to the off-peak and weekend hours, according to Michael Shiffer, the railroad's vice president for planning.

“That has really taken root and so now people can travel based on what we call a clock-based schedule,” Shiffer said. “They can generally expect in a lot of parts of our market half-hourly service or better. It’s really changed the way people think about the railroad. In White Plains, for instance, you could go to the platform at many times of the day without consulting a schedule and expect a train. And so when people have that level of service, they’re more willing to take advantage of that.”

The ready availability of trains on weekends has led more riders, especially millennials, to ditch the car, Shiffer said.

Betting on the wave

Permut said he was confident the plan could work since he’d seen the off-peak and weekend numbers creeping upward for several years.

“There’s been a long history at Metro-North of increasing service,” Permut said this week. “And so when we put that in in 2012 we were basically following a path that had been proven to work. So I was definitely convinced we were going to add riders. I’m not surprise that that happened.”

The intermediate market, riders who take the train between stations, has also seen dramatic growth, to 13.4 million last year from around 5.3 million in 1988, a nearly 150 percent increase.

Much of that growth has come between the Bronx and lower Westchester County on the Harlem Line between Fordham and White Plains and on the New Haven Line between New Haven and Greenwich.

Yonkers, New Rochelle, White Plains, Greenwich and Stamford have become employment hubs, Shiffer noted.

“Those are all centers of employment and activity,” Shiffer said. “People are commuting to these places using Metro-North.”

And, Shiffer said, traditional work hours have shifted, requiring train schedules to adjust.

“There are fewer 9-to-5 jobs and some of that is due to the gig economy, the service industry, the growth in health care and a variety of different job types even in the financial industry that aren’t wedded to the standard 9-to-5,” Shiffer said.

“There seems to be a growing willingness among employers for flexible work hours,” he added.

Last year, the Hudson and New Haven lines set records with 17.2 million and 40.3 million rides, respectively. The Harlem Line had a subpar year with 27.4 million rides, a 1.5 percent decrease Metro-North attributed to reduced train schedules while the railroad fixed stations along the line.

The downside of growth

The surging ridership levels took hold even as the railroad was being forced to confront a series of setbacks and challenges.

Railroad officials attribute some of the dips in on-time performance to the installation of Positive Train Control (PTC), technology designed to put the brakes on speeding trains.

And, in recent years the railroad has had to spend more time fixing tracks, which has led to service disruptions.

On the Port Jervis and Pascack Valley lines, commuters endured a year of canceled and delayed trains.

And on the New Haven Line, commuters had to endure crowded trains. The railroad is hoping the addition of 66 state-of-the-art cars in the coming months will alleviate some of that crowding.

Jim Cameron, who heads the Connecticut-based Commuter Action Group, said that despite those issues, the railroad’s greater reliability makes it a better option than commuting by car.

“I take it as a good sign that Metro-North is becoming the ‘Fairfield Subway’ we have long envisioned, a welcome alternative to I-95,” Cameron said “More frequent trains with slower, but reliable all-weather service….Even full-time commuters have a short memory. The 2013 derailments are long forgotten and concern about delays in PTC have certainly not hurt ridership because the highway alternatives are so few and painfully slow.”