There’s been a spate of news stories lately about how grim the water supply outlook is for the Colorado River, the lifeline for 30 million people in Colorado, six other states, and Mexico.

And after a decade of persistently dry weather, the river does face challenging times. But amidst all the gloom and doom, there is hope: By driving home the simple reality that the Colorado has been pushed beyond its limits, the current crisis could be the catalyst that leads to the adoption of innovative, long-term solutions to the river’s problems.

First, the bad news — the Colorado is indeed in trouble. In the first phase of our new report, Rethinking the Future of the Colorado River, the Colorado River Governance Initiative studied long-term trends in Colorado River flows, and the amount of water being withdrawn for human use. Our work shows that even under normal conditions, river flows have been just barely sufficient to meet human needs. In other words, the river’s much-publicized recent troubles — like Lake Mead dropping to low levels not seen since the 1960s — can’t be entirely blamed on the recent string of dry years. Rather, they are the result of steady increases in the amount of water humans are taking from the river. Even if the basin were to suddenly return to historically normal conditions, the prospect of looming water shortages would not go away.

To make matters worse, the basin will probably not return to the wetter conditions we have come to think of as “normal.” Although climate models can be maddeningly uncertain, in the Colorado basin they display a rare degree of unanimity: a recent review shows that 18 of 19 models predict the region will get drier in the coming decades, perhaps decreasing river flows by 10 percent to 30 percent by 2060.

Of course, just because the climate may be drying doesn’t mean we can’t continue to manage the Colorado under the current system of agreements, treaties, and court decisions known as the Law of the River. But doing that will likely produce unpleasant results in both the so-called “upper basin” states — Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming — and the “lower basin” states of California, Arizona, and Nevada.

If dry conditions continue as predicted, the upper basin states may be unable to make any reliable new claims to use Colorado River water, because the current Law of the River requires them to deliver a minimum amount of flow downstream to the lower basin. Conversely, while the Law of the River theoretically gives the lower basin states the right to receive that flow, actually enforcing that right against the upper basin could take years and cost millions of dollars.

Fortunately, momentum is building for a better approach. A growing body of studies is both documenting the current predicament and beginning to assess a range of possible solutions. To be politically viable, any such solutions must not require altering the core provisions of the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which most parties consider inviolate. But what is viable is the concept of using those provisions as a foundation upon which to build new agreements that more effectively achieve the original goals of the Compact. The states have a history of doing just that. Just three years ago, for example, they negotiated the 2007 Colorado River Accord, which established new rules to improve river management under dry conditions. It’s a notable start, although not enough to constitute a long-term solution to the river’s woes.

So what might effective, long-term solutions for the Colorado look like? That is the subject of conversations beginning to be heard all around the basin. It will also be the subject of the second phase of CRGI’s report, to be released this spring. For now, the important points are to think big and act soon, before the current window of opportunity closes.

Dr. Doug Kenney is director of the Western Water Policy Program and a senior research associate at the Natural Resources Law Center at the University of Colorado.EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an online-only column and has not been edited.