The reassuring talk and emphasis on bipartisanship are smart politics, said Kenneth M. Duberstein, a former chief of staff to President Ronald Reagan who is widely credited with helping to turn around Mr. Reagan’s second term. Mr. Duberstein said Iraq and the economy had been the twin pillars of Mr. Bush’s presidency.

“In the final analysis,” he said, “people vote for their wallet  what’s in it, and what’s not in it  more so than Iraq or anything in foreign policy.”

Polls show that the public feels unsettled about the future. The percentage of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track now stands at 75 percent, while just 19 percent believe it is on the right track, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll this month. Democrats intend to capitalize on those numbers in the fall campaigns; despite joining hands with Mr. Bush on the stimulus package, they are already hammering him on the economy.

Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, has been warning for months of a looming “Bush recession.” The day before the stimulus deal was reached, Mr. Emanuel released a chart titled “The Legacy of George W. Bush’s Presidency,” which contrasted a litany of economic indicators, like the price of gasoline and median household income, from 2001 to today. None favored Mr. Bush.

From a strictly economic perspective, it is difficult to blame Mr. Bush for the current crisis. Even some economists who have been critical of the president, like Bruce Bartlett, who worked in the Reagan and first Bush administrations, say he cannot be held liable for the burst of the housing bubble or problems in credit markets.

But from a political perspective, it is hard for Mr. Bush to escape. The economic expansion that came after his tax cuts has largely benefited the wealthy, which is why it is easy for Democrats like Mr. Emanuel to make the case that Mr. Bush’s stewardship of the economy has created “a middle-class squeeze.” And if the president ends his term in a recession, it will be difficult for him to point to any real economic progress on his watch.

Mr. Bush counters that the fundamentals of the economy are strong, even as it appears to be unraveling. He is careful to avoid the word “recession,” preferring to talk instead about “economic challenges” and “uncertainties,” as he did on Friday at the Republican retreat. “We have a flexible, we have a resilient and we have a dynamic economy,” Mr. Bush said. “But there are some uncertainties.”