By Cliff Rold

Few outside his native Thailand saw the defending titlist coming before this year. The challenger, and his twin brother competing one class higher, were considered blue chip from the moment they debuted.

It doesn’t matter where it starts. The ring is where it ends, where truth is told. Their amateur backgrounds have similarities. Their professional styles do not.

That makes this mid-week Flyweight battle hard to pick and hard to visualize. It’s the sort of contest that could play out a lot of different ways. The challenger is capable of ending matters with a single blow. The champion has the potential to befuddle and outbox his man.

There is also the potential for the sort of style clash that produces a decision strongly debated for both in this battle of former Olympians.

In the deep, exciting pool that is 112 lbs., anything is possible.

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Amnat Ruenreong

Age: 34

Title: IBF Flyweight (2014-Present, 1 Defense)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’4 ½

Weight: 109.5

Hails from: Chonburi, Thailand

Record: 13-0, 5 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 2-0

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 1 (Kazuto Ioka SD12)

Vs.

McWilliams Arroyo

Age: 28

Title/Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’4

Weight: 110.75

Hails from: Fajardo, Puerto Rico

Record: 15-1, 13 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 1st Major Title Opportunity

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 0

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Ruenroeng B+; Arroyo B+

Pre-Fight: Power – Ruenroeng C; Arroyo B+

Pre-Fight: Defense – Ruenroeng B+; Arroyo B

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Ruenroeng A; Arroyo B

Ruenroeng is one of those boxing stories that remind us how redeeming the sport can be. After a background in Muay Thai, Ruenroeng found boxing during a lengthy prison sentence for a robbery in his youth. By all appearances, it has changed his life. A 2007 Amateur World Bronze Medalist and 2008 Olympic quarterfinalist at Light Flyweight, Ruenroeng turned professional in 2012 and has made moves in a hurry.

In his win for the vacant IBF title over Rocky Fuentes, and defense against Ioka (a split decision that should have been pretty widely unanimous), it’s been easy to think this is a professional veteran. Ruenroeng fights with a calm, relaxed demeanor, casually switching from southpaw to orthodox. He varies the speed of his punches, sometimes flashing world-class speed, other times touching and tying up foes to keep them off balance. He moves plenty but doesn’t waste motion, stepping in a way that keeps him out of range but ready to counter. When he’s been caught, he seems to take punches fine.

This is a smart, mature fighter no matter how many fights he’s had. Not a big puncher, his demeanor and style are all about long fights.

But for a couple of points, who knows? Ruenroeng and Arroyo might already have met for free. In 2009, Ruenroeng exited the Amateur World Championships in the Flyweight quarterfinals bracket opposite Arroyo. Arroyo won the tournament, one year removed from a disappointing third round exit at the Olympics. It was that background, and the rich history of Puerto Rican boxing, that created early excitement around the Arroyo brothers.

Arroyo stumbled early, dropped and outpointed in four rounds in his fourth start. He has responded well, winning mostly by knockout against the sort of building block competition one would expect inside the first twenty fights for most professionals. While there can be times where Arroyo can be a little picky in his punch selection, he also flashes moments of steady aggression. Mixing it up to the head and body, there is no secret about what Arroyo is looking for.

He is there to get things over with.

Could that work against Arroyo as he travels to Thailand for his first title opportunity? Arroyo is technically sound defensively, chin tucked and hands always in good position, but that foundation could be troubled by a Ruenroeng that can make a foe think about what is coming next.

Can Arroyo succeed where Ioka fell short? There are reasons to think he can. While Ioka was unusually experienced for a fighter with so few fights, already a two-division and former unified titlist, he might not carry the same sort of one-punch possibilities that Arroyo does.

It’s hard to say. Ioka had fought a high level of foe prior to Ruenroeng and scored his share of knockouts. With Arroyo, there is a gap between pedigree and experience. He doesn’t have an Ioka on his ledger or any reason to think he’s as good as Ioka yet.

No fighter is proven until they are. Ruenroeng, entering this contest, is the more proven professional.

The Pick

Add his professional proof to the fight being in Thailand and the scale starts to tip towards Ruenroeng. Of the three Flyweight title fights in recent days, this one feels the hardest to pick going in. We don’t know a ton about Arroyo yet and we only know a little bit more about Ruenroeng. Arroyo is capable of landing enough hard shots to win a decision if no knockout comes. It feels more likely that Ruenroeng frustrates him and creates a fight with a lot of close rounds. Close rounds often favor home court. In a coin flip fight with no strong favorite, the pick here is Ruenroeng via decision.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene and a member of the Transnational Boxing Ratings Board and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com