Nov 6, 2019

Immediately following the Oct. 13 Russian-mediated agreement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian regime for the SDF to relinquish territory under its control to the Damascus government, the Syrian army began deploying to secure oil wells in Raqqa province.

Two weeks later, the regime tightened its grip on the oil fields in southeastern Raqqa province after SDF forces agreed on Oct. 27 to withdraw 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from the border with Turkey in accordance with a deal signed Oct. 22 by Ankara and Moscow in Sochi. This opened the path for the Syrian army to deploy across 90 kilometers (56 miles) of the border in northern al-Hasakah province, from Ras al-Ain to Qamishli.

The provinces of Homs and Hama, and part of Raqqa, toward the desert up to the Euphrates River in the east and the border of Iraq, came under the regime's control on Oct. 19, putting the oil and gas fields in this area, known as the Triangle, under the supervision of the Syrian Oil Ministry, which is now working to reconstruct damage from airstrikes and sabotage with the goal of eventually attracting investors. Meanwhile, most of the oil fields east of the Euphrates — the largest being al-Rumailan, al-Omar and Suwaydiya — remain under SDF control. In light of the Donald Trump administration's decision to deploy more troops to protect these fields from Islamic State (IS) attack, the regime’s odds of taking control of them are slim. Therefore, Damascus is focusing on tightening its grip on the oil fields in the center of the country and around Raqqa.

Abdulkader Allaf, an electrical engineer and former deputy oil minister of the opposition's interim government, told Al-Monitor that even if the regime is successful in repairing the fields under its control and proffering them for local or international investment, it will still need to import oil to meet demand. “The regime can, however, [with] gas [it holds] secure the needs of power plants in its areas of control to provide electricity,” said Allaf.

According to the British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy for 2019, Syria had produced 406,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2008, and that dropped to 353,000 bpd after the civil war began in 2011. Production in 2017 and 2018 plummeted to around 24,000 bpd. Annual natural gas production fell from 7.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2011 to 3.6 bcm in 2018. Oil Minister Ali Ghanem claimed in a statement to parliament in early October that dozens of old gas wells had recently been restarted, leading to an increase in production.