Joel Ebert

jebert@tennessean.com

Although voters may still feel election fatigue after a grueling presidential race, Tennessee politicos have their eyes set on the next big campaign: the 2018 gubernatorial campaign.

The primary election is 20 months away, but rumblings among those interested in running has started. In June, several potential candidates worked the crowd at a reception at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Although most denied any interest in the race then, insiders now say the mad-dash to raise cash and hire political experts who work behind the scenes to shepherd campaigns has begun.

With Gov. Bill Haslam term-limited, the field of Republican candidates is wide-open.

While potential candidates will begin announcing exploratory committees as early as next week, a key factor in the race now involves U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, a possible pick for a Cabinet position in the Trump administration.

Although Corker has called such talk speculation, he's also considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. If Corker exited his senate seat in favor of a Cabinet post, it would almost certainly end speculation that he would run for governor and force Haslam to appoint a successor for the senate seat.

On Wednesday, Haslam indicated he would lean toward selecting a placeholder who would fill the seat until the 2018 election. But there’s a chance Haslam's appointment could alter the field of the Republican gubernatorial primary election, which is expected to be the most expensive in state history.

If Corker joins Trump's cabinet, what would happen with his Senate seat?

While the bench in the gubernatorial race is expected to be quite deep on the Republican side, Democrats are more likely to have just a handful of potential candidates. Strategically speaking, a primary race with just one candidate would allow the party more time to rally the troops and prepare for what will likely be an uphill battle rather than have multiple Democrats, which would drain money away from a race against their Republican opponent.

Tennessee Democrats - who last won a statewide race in 2006, when Gov. Phil Bredesen was re-elected - are already feeling uneasy after Trump's massive margin of victory. But a Democrat might have increased odds of taking back the governor's mansion during a mid-term election with Trump still in the White House.

The following is a list of potential gubernatorial candidates from both parties, in no particular order.

Republicans

Diane Black, 65

Representing Tennessee's 6th congressional district, the Gallatin-based congresswoman is widely expected to enter the gubernatorial race. With an estimated net worth of more than $150 million, she's among the 10 wealthiest members of Congress and could easily bankroll her own campaign if she wanted. A former state lawmaker, she's a social Christian conservative who has railed against Obamacare and Planned Parenthood. Black handily defeated her primary and general election opponents this year, including a massive defeat of Tea Party-aligned Joe Carr. She remains popular among her constituents, who she has represented since 2011.

Marsha Blackburn, 64

Some have speculated that the Brentwood congresswoman has her eye on a statewide position in the 2018 election cycle. That would mean either running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Corker or governor. Blackburn's national profile has been rising in recent years, thanks in part to speaking at the three most recent Republican National Conventions. She could be in the running for a post in the Trump administration. Blackburn has served in Congress since 2002, but has avoided the notion that she is entrenched in the political swamp that is Washington, D.C. In the lead up to Tuesday's General Election, Blackburn was frequently seen on national television defending Trump, which could bolster her potential run.

Beth Harwell, 59

Although the House Speaker's name has frequently been bandied about as a potential candidate for the looming race, Harwell told The Tennessean last week that she remains focused on the immediate future. Since becoming speaker in 2011, she has repeatedly faced criticism from Democrats and some in her own party. Harwell could face questions about where her priorities lie - in her job as speaker or running for governor. Depending on what happens in the upcoming legislative session, Harwell could conjure up the political support necessary to advance a potential gubernatorial run. Financially speaking, the Nashville Republican would be hindered by the fact that she can't raise money when the legislature is in session, an issue that most other potential candidates do not face. But that might not be a large problem given that she has more than $1 million in campaign and political action committee funds.

Alberto Gonzales, 61

Although he's rarely been mentioned as a potential candidate thus far, some insiders are suggesting the former U.S. attorney general during President George W. Bush's administration could enter the fray. The Texas native is currently serving as the dean of the Belmont University School of Law, a position he's held since 2014. Gonzales has been traveling the state and the country in support of his recently released memoir and has at times weighed in on the presidential race.

Alberto Gonzales: FBI's letter on Clinton email was against protocol

When The Tennessean asked him recently if he was interested in running for governor, Gonzales said, “What I’m interested in is continuing to build upon this great start we have here at Belmont law school. I’ve got confidence in the voters of Tennessee that they’re going to elect the right person to be our next governor of this great state.”

Bill Lee, 56

The Franklin native and Republican donor has already told The Tennessean in May he was considering a run for governor in 2018. With no political experience, Lee brings a business background - he runs Lee Company - and he has dabbled in government before. In 2014, Lee was appointed by Haslam to serve on the state Higher Education Commission, a position in which he continues to serve.

Lee Co.'s Bill Lee exploring Republican run for governor

Like many others who could enter the race, Lee would likely have no trouble financing a potential run.

Bill Hagerty, 57

The wealthy Nashville businessman is currently spearheading Trump's transition team as director of presidential appointments. Hagerty's latest foray into government comes on the heels of serving as Tennessee's finance chairman of the Trump Victory Committee. Prior to that, he worked in President George H.W. Bush's administration and served as Tennessee Economic and Community Development Commissioner from 2011-14. More recently, Hagerty joined Hall Capital, a Nashville-based private investment firm and has been a driving force behind the effort to bring a a Major League Soccer expansion franchise to Music City. In recent years, Hagerty has been a prominent Republican donor to presidential candidates, including Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Trump.

Nashville’s Bill Hagerty takes on key role on Trump transition team

Mark Green, 52

A source said state Sen. Mark Green, R-Clarksville, could launch a listening tour ahead of an expected gubernatorial run as early as Monday morning. Green already has a survey online that suggests he's eyeing a gubernatorial bid. Like several others in the field of potential candidates, Green maintains a healthy campaign war chest but a significant portion of it is due to personal loans.

Green has military experience, ties to the health care industry and experience in the state legislature but has never run for statewide office. As a lawmaker, he helped push for the passage of a bill to eliminate the Hall income tax and has been highly critical of the Affordable Care Act. While publicly questioning Haslam's controversial Insure Tennessee proposal, he abstained on voting on the measure when it came up in his Senate committee.

Mark Norris, 61

When Tennessee's delegation gathered in Cleveland for the RNC in June, they were welcomed by the Collierville Republican. Norris has served as Senate Majority Leader since 2007 and briefly considered running for Congress when former U.S. Rep. Stephen Fincher said he didn't plan to run for re-election. Norris, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2002, didn't jump into the race this year and instead opted to run for re-election to his state senate seat, which he has held since 2000. He also decided against running for speaker of the Senate, the post vacated by retiring Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, a move that could make a governor's race more manageable. Admittedly, Norris has been more of a policy-oriented lawmaker than someone who weighs in on more social issues, but a gubernatorial run could allow him to parlay himself into a cabinet post.

Stephen Fincher, 43

The farmer from Frog Jump decided to leave Congress this year after constituents of his West Tennessee district sent him to Washington, D.C. during the Republican wave election of 2010. Although some conservatives criticized his push to reauthorize the controversial U.S. Export-Import Bank last year, Fincher returns to Tennessee relatively unscathed. He hasn’t publicly expressed interest in the governor’s office, but he has more than $2 million in his federal campaign account and plenty of time to hop in.

Randy Boyd, 57

Currently serving as the state Economic and Community Development Commissioner, Boyd hosted a reception for the state's delegation during the RNC. At the time, Boyd said he was focused on his job as commissioner. More recently, GOP insiders are saying Boyd is turning up the heat on a possible gubernatorial run. Aside from his role as commissioner, Boyd owns an invisible fence company as well as the Tennessee Smokies minor league baseball team. He is credited as one of the architects of the popular Tennessee Promise scholarship program.

Tre Hargett, 47

Hargett has served as Tennessee Secretary of State since 2009. Like Boyd, Hargett denied any interest in running for governor while attending the RNC. It wasn't Hargett's first time denying his interest in the race - in 2014 he issued a press release to scuttle such talk. But as his four-year term begins to wind down, the former state Republican lawmaker could be looking for his next landing spot.

Andy Ogles, 45

Currently head of the Tennessee chapter for conservative advocacy organization Americans for Prosperity, GOP insiders say Ogles is more focused on the upcoming legislative session than a gubernatorial bid. But depending on which candidates enter the race, Ogles could decide to join in an effort to ensure the party doesn't swing too close to the middle. While heading up AFP, he has helped force the governor to re-evaluate Common Core standards, advanced a mini-voucher school program and played a role in torpedoing Insure Tennessee.

Joe Carr, 58

A perennial candidate who has most recently been on the losing end of campaigns for U.S. Senate and Congress, the Lascassas Republican has been critical of many in his own party. During his campaigns, Carr has tried to outflank primary opponents on the right, frequently aligning himself with Tea Party views.

Democrats

Bill Freeman, 65

A real estate professional who came in third in last year’s election for Nashville mayor, Freeman is the state Democratic Party’s top fundraiser and also worked as a top bundler for the campaigns of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Freeman told The Tennessean that he’s still analyzing what happened in Tuesday’s presidential race – calling it a closer outcome nationally than some are labeling it. He said he would make a decision on whether to run for governor sometime early next year.

Bill Freeman for governor? He's not ruling it out

“One of the things that I’m going to be watching is just how we can rebuild the Democratic Party in Tennessee and put us in a position to contest races around the state," he said. “I worked hard in state House race around the state and state Senate races.

“I did all I could do to elect Democrats around the state, and we’ve just got to determine whether we can succeed there."

Karl Dean, 61

Karl Dean, a former mayor of Nashville from 2007 through 2015, built a reputation as a pro-business Democrat as he led the city during some of its strongest economic growth. Some say he’s laid out a path for a gubernatorial run similar to the one used by Phil Bredesen, the Democrats’ last statewide elected officeholder. Bredesen also was a former Nashville mayor.

In recent months, Dean has crisscrossed the state, speaking at events in various Tennessee cities as he explores a run.

Karl Dean travels Tennessee to explore statewide run

As mayor, Dean butted heads with some Democrats over his support of publicly-financed, privately-led charter schools. He has fewer connections with state-level Democrats than he does local politicos. He’s also not allied with organized labor, a key traditional Democratic constituency. Still, many consider Dean the party’s best shot for a viable candidate.

“I’m still very interested in it,” Dean said. “I’ve been doing some things around the state and talking to people. I’m assuming I have to make a decision to make about it early next year, the first half anyway, maybe sooner. It intrigues me.”

Dean said his decision will come down to whether he has something to contribute to the state, whether it’s the right thing for his family and whether “it’s a realistic possibility” to win the election. He said Trump’s dominant presidential election performance in Tennessee, where he won more than 61 percent of the vote last week, wouldn’t discourage him from running.

“Going into it, you understand that Republicans have all the advantages right now,” he said. “I’m not surprised that the president-elect won by the margin he did in Tennessee. That does not discourage me.”

Other possible Democratic candidates include Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke and Knoxville Mayor Madeline Rogero.

Joey Garrison, Jake Lowary and Adam Tamburin contributed to this report.