The Muslim-Yadav (MY) axis has proved to be a potent force to reckon with in the electoral politics of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. RJD strongman Lalu Prasad Yadav and Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav have reaped benefits of this combination on several occasions, forming governments in their respective states on its basis.

However, the Muslim-Dalit (MD) unity has not been as tried and tested as the MY variant. It has yielded fruits only for BSP supremo Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, that too partially. She had to depend upon other castes such as Brahmins too to register victory.

Despite the failure so far, a concerted effort is afoot from several quarters to establish a solid and lasting combination of MD at the national level. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief and Lok Sabha MP from Hyderabad Asaduddin Owaisi is at the forefront of creating such an alignment.

On July 29, 2016, he wrote on a Facebook post with the slogan 'Jai Bheem, Jai Meem': "Dalit-Muslim unity is the need of the hour to stop oppression and discrimination of Sangh Pariwar. United we stand, divided we fall. No more humiliation! (sic)."

Even earlier, in February 2016, he had pitched for Muslim-Dalit unity, claiming they were the "two most oppressed communities". "We will write a new chapter in the state (UP). The two most oppressed communities - Dalits and Muslims - should join hands on the slogan of Jai Bhim, Jai Meem", he said while addressing an election rally ahead of the Bikapur Assembly bypoll near Ayodhya.

Be it the Una incident in Gujarat, in which 4 Dalits were brutally assaulted for skinning a dead cow, or Rohith Vemula's suicide in Hyderabad, Muslims had not just condemned these incidents but also stood behind the community. The prospects of a Muslim-Dalit alignment was sought to be explored then too but with little or no success.

However, along with the sincere attempts to create a Muslim-Dalit or Muslim-Yadav axis, another phenomenon of disintegration of Muslims is also taking place. Perhaps to the glee of the BJP, Muslims no more remain a monolithic and cohesive entity.

Either on its own or catalysed by the BJP, the fragmentation of Muslims - who make up 14.2 per cent of the country's population as per the 2011 census - is taking place. It poses a challenge to the MY or MD axis in the future.

SHIAS

Indian Shias, constituting about 25 per cent of the entire Muslim population of India, see themselves different from the Sunnis, who make up the majority. They are considered to be forward-looking and modern as compared with the Sunnis.

Attracted by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the Shias came closer to the BJP. Minority Affairs Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, the only Muslim to hold a Cabinet rank in Narendra Modi's ministry, is a Shia.

The Uttar Pradesh Shia Central Waqf Board has announced that it would gift 10 silver arrows as a mark of respect for the construction of the Lord Ram statue in Ayodhya. The arrows are for Lord Ram's quiver, board's chairman Waseem Rizvi said.

The Board has also welcomed the Yogi Adityanath government's move to build a 100-metre-high statue of Lord Ram on the banks of Saryu river in Ayodhya. "UP government's decision to erect a statue of Lord Ram is commendable. In keeping with the Ganga-Jamuni 'tehzeeb' of Awadh, these silver arrows will be just a token of admiration and esteem in which Shias hold Lord Ram", he said.

Shias have always venerated Hindu gods and goddesses. For instance, Rizvi said the Nawabs of Awadh donated land for temples in Ayodhya.

The land for Hanuman Garhi in central Ayodhya was donated by Nawab Shuja-ud-Daulah in 1739, while the funds to construct the Hanuman Garhi temple were provided by Nawab Asif-ud-Daullah, between 1775 and 1793, he said.

Shias have jumped into the ongoing Taj Mahal controversy too. Rizvi said the monument cannot be a symbol of "worship." He also alleged that "most Mughals were 'aiyaash' (dissolute)".

As the Mughals were Sunnis, the Shias are seen to be opposing them and, in the process, aligning with the likes of BJP MLA Sangeet Som, who said Taj Mahal is a blot on Indian culture.

Besides, the Shia Board is one of the parties in the appeals pending in the Supreme Court regarding the Babri Mosque-Ram Janmbhoomi Temple dispute. In August, the Uttar Pradesh Shia Central Waqf Board told the Supreme Court in an affidavit that the Babri Masjid site was its property and only it was entitled to hold negotiations for an amicable settlement of the dispute.

It also said a mosque could be built in a Muslim- dominated area at a reasonable distance from the disputed site in Ayodhya.

Efforts to create a monolithic Muslim community have been severely jolted with the stands which the Shias have been taking from time to time.

WOMEN

It is believed that a majority of the 50 per cent of the Muslim population has supported Modi. This section constitutes the Muslim women.

Ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election earlier this year, Modi's exhortations that the government would ensure that the constitutional rights of Muslim women were protected struck a chord with the Muslim women. He was obviously referring to the polygamy and triple talaq practices prevalent among the Muslims.

The women of India's largest minority community are believed to have overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in UP. No wonder, the BJP won 311 of the 403 Assembly seats in UP. Out of these 311 seats, 100 are dominated by the Muslims, including Deoband, where the community makes up for 71 per cent of the population.

The women even got relief when in August, the Supreme Court struck down instant triple talaq, terming it unconstitutional. Modi's continued engagement with the Muslim women may make it difficult for Owaisi to create a cohesive block of the minority community.

BOHRAS

Bohra Muslims, who are primarily settled in Gujarat, are also considered to be different from the Sunnis and closer to the Shias. This community is predominantly engaged in business and, hence, is generally peace-loving.

As any unrest, disturbance or riots adversely affect their trade and business, the Bohras always support peace and harmony in society. They are generally considered Modi and BJP supporters in Gujarat.

SUNNIS

With Muslim women, Shias and Bohras tilting towards the BJP, Owaisi and his ilk may have to bank upon the men among the Sunnis to create an MD alignment against the BJP and Modi government. Half of the Sunnis, who constitute about 70 per cent of the Muslims in India, will have to be aligned with the Dalits, making up for 16 per cent of the population to take on the BJP.

Together, they make up for roughly 23 (7+16) per cent of the population. With this combination, Owaisi or anyone trying to create an MD alignment is unlikely to taste success. Moreover, with the BJP's outreach, a monolithic Muslim votebank is also getting chipped off.

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