Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Philip Breedlove, right, speaks with Czech Republic's NATO-EU military representative Major-General Miroslav Zizka, prior to a two-day meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. Credit:AP While NATO did not seek confrontation or a new arms race, it had to respond to a "changed and more challenging security environment", NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. "We need to deploy troops and ships to deter the aggression, the threats that we have seen," British Defence Minister Michael Fallon said as he arrived for a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels. "NATO means what it says, that we are ready to deter any kind of pressure." The initial reaction from Moscow was a reserved statement from Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. "We do not understand the reason for such a move. We assume NATO's [plans] threaten Russia and also endanger security and stability in Europe," she said.

NATO troops make a massive amphibious landing in Ustka, Poland, during sea exercises in June 2015 to reassure the Baltic Sea region allies in the face of a resurgent Russia. Credit:AP Although NATO plans to deploy dozens of tanks in the six countries look dramatic, the amount of armour will be no more than that stationed in one small part of West Germany during the Cold War, according to retired US Brigadier-General Mark Kimmitt, who told CNN the move was "more symbolic than strategic". But how it will be perceived – or rather spun by state media – in Russia is another matter. Thanks to aggressive propaganda, many Russians are already convinced that the United States is about to invade their homeland. And with the economy doing disastrously, President Vladimir Putin can maintain his popularity only by further ramping up international tension. US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter, left, speaks with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, second right, during the meeting on Wednesday. Credit:AP Syria is the latest arena where Russian activity is causing grave concern. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was "shocked and appalled" by the Russian bombing of Aleppo, which shows Russia is taking sides in the civil war rather than being an honest broker at peace talks in Geneva.

In a report to the Senate this week, US National Intelligence director James Clapper said Russia was paranoid. "I think the Russians fundamentally are paranoid about NATO," he said. "They are greatly concerned about being contained ... So a lot of these aggressive things the Russians are doing for a number of reasons – great power status to create the image of being co-equal with the United States – I think could probably, could possibly go on, and we could be into another Cold War-like spiral here." Russia is offended by what it sees as the West's breaking of an unspoken understanding when the Berlin Wall came down that NATO would not expand eastwards. Also, Russia regards the West's encouragement of democracy in Ukraine as meddling in its backyard. But NATO members are worried by repeated Russian intrusions or near intrusions into their airspace. In November, Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 attack aircraft that briefly entered its airspace, causing Ankara's relations with Moscow to plummet like the plane. The Baltic States have been rattled since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and started backing Russian-speaking rebels in eastern Ukraine. Despite a peace agreement reached in Minsk last year, low-level fighting continues and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said recently the risk of open war with Russia was greater now than 12 months ago.

Particularly troubling to independent countries once in the Soviet orbit is Russia's readiness to provoke their ethnic minorities and use of so-called "hybrid tactics" – dirty tricks in an undeclared war. This KGB-style underhand behaviour goes back to 2007 when, during a row over a Soviet-era monument, Estonia was on the receiving end of a Russian cyber attack that disabled government websites. In Ukraine, despite massive evidence to the contrary, Russia still denies its regular troops have been involved in fighting and says any Russian soldiers helping the rebels have been doing so "voluntarily, during their vacations". Western sanctions and the recent conclusion of a British judge that Putin "probably" personally ordered the polonium poisoning of exiled dissident Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006 have only further enraged Russia. NATO and Russia now regularly conduct military exercises, the Russians most recently in their southern military district, perhaps in connection with Syria. This is where experts on both sides see the danger of an accident, leading to a war nobody intended. The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, squeezed between NATO members Lithuania and Poland, is seen as a potential flashpoint. Latvia, where ethnic Russians make up about 26 per cent of the population, could also be vulnerable.

The West sees little chance of improvement while Putin remains in power but reports in Moscow this week that he might be grooming his former bodyguard, Alexei Dyumin, to succeed him could mean any new Kremlin leader would hardly be any friendlier. Follow FairfaxForeign on Twitter Follow FairfaxForeign on Facebook