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That government, it will be recalled, managed to recover, winning re-election on the strength of its signature free trade initiative and growing public doubts about the opposition leader. But with less than six months to go until the election, it is unclear what similar combination of circumstances can revive the Trudeau Liberals.

Poll Tracker now has them an average of seven points behind the Conservatives. There are reputable pollsters who put them as much as 13 points behind. Worse still are the numbers in the regions, where elections in Canada are won and lost. They are now 10 points back in B.C., where they led by five in the last election, the party’s best showing there since 1968. They trail narrowly in Ontario, a province they won by 10 points last time. Likewise for Atlantic Canada — where they won by nearly 40 points.

Even in Quebec, where as late as the start of this year they looked likely to pick up a dozen seats or more — enough to make up for their projected losses elsewhere — their lead is now down to just 10 points, the same as in 2015. Not so long ago, the worst-case scenario for the party was that it would be reduced to a minority. As things stand, that’s about the best it can hope for.

The good news is that disaffected Liberal voters have not coalesced around a single opposition party; rather, some support has gone to the Conservatives, some to the Greens, some to the Bloc Québécois. Neither has the NDP, whose fortunes tend to move inversely with those of the Liberals, shown much strength. The bad news is that the hoped-for split on the right, via Max Bernier’s People’s Party, has not yet materialized.