Bears' injury luck may run out

By John Clayton

ESPN.com

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The Bears' 2010 season was a "Love-fest.''

Lovie Smith went from the coaching hot seat to the security of a contract extension. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz coexisted with quarterback Jay Cutler. Devin Hester sped to historic levels among NFL return specialists.

Unfortunately, happy returns in 2011 won't be as easy. Among the 2010 playoff teams with winning records, the Bears face the best chance to drop from an 11-5 division winner that went to the NFC title game. Their footing in 2011 is as tricky and as slick as it is on Soldier Field in late fall and early winter games.

Three factors usually precipitate a drop: a tougher schedule, potential for injuries and negative changes during the offseason. Those factors usually cause a 50 percent turnover of playoff teams annually. The Bears are losers on two of those three factors.

Their first-place finish in the NFC North doesn't punish them too badly. They go from a .473 schedule that was the ninth easiest to a .500 schedule that is palatable. The two noncommon games the Bears play for winning the division aren't killers. The Bears play host to Seattle, winner of the NFC West, and travel to Philadelphia, the NFC East winner. The Packers, who finished second in the NFC North, play host to St. Louis and travel to the New York Giants.

What will be tougher for the Bears to repeat is their 5-1 record within the division, which gave them the one-game advantage to nudge past the Packers for first place. The Lions are getting better and are in the third year of a major rebuilding project. The Vikings may be weaker without Brett Favre, but they still are a tough division rival.

The most significant problem facing the Bears is the luck that enabled them to win 11 games. Despite having Cutler's strong arm and Martz's sharp mind, the Bears averaged only 20.9 points a game, leaving a tighter margin of error for winning games. Their luck involved injuries. The only Bears starter who missed more than a couple of games because of injury was linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa

Rarely can a team repeat being that healthy for a 17-week season. And the core group on defense is older. Brian Urlacher is 32, and Julius Peppers is 31. Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman and Israel Idonije are all 30. The Bears cut defensive tackle Tommie Harris, haven't re-signed 30-year-old defensive tackle Anthony Adams and aren't as stout in the middle of their defense.

Finally, moving kickoffs from the 30-yard line to the 35 affects the Bears more than any other team. Since 2006, the Bears consistently have started drives from about their 31, thanks to Hester's ability to return the ball. If kickers force more touchbacks against the Bears, touchdown drives will be tougher and the team's scoring could drop below 20 points a game.