Italy’s recession has raised doubts over the strength of the eurozone. Here is a health check on some of the key eurozone economies – and the UK.

Germany

The German economy has been flirting with recession in recent months, as vehicle emissions tests – introduced in the wake of the VW scandal – and a drop in car sales in China act as a drag on industrial output. While official figures are yet to be published, analysts believe the eurozone’s largest economy probably contracted for the second quarter in a row in the final three months of 2018 – enough for a technical recession. Jobs growth has, however, remained strong. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the economy expanded by 1.5% last year, while growth will slow to 1.3% in 2019.

France

The country’s economy ended 2018 on a stronger footing than expected, despite the headwinds from the gilets jaunes anti-government protests, first started as a backlash against plans to raise fuel taxes. Rising export volumes offset sluggish household consumption in the final quarter of the year. GDP rose by 0.3% in the three months to December, contributing to annual growth of 1.5%. The IMF forecasts growth will remain steady at that level in 2019.

United Kingdom

Like much of Europe, Britain has suffered from a downturn in manufacturing linked to new vehicle emissions tests and faltering demand in China. However, Brexit poses additional problems. Despite this, unemployment is the lowest since the mid-1970s and wage growth has accelerated to the highest level in a decade. After robust growth in the summer, GDP growth is expected to ease to about 0.3% in the fourth quarter as mounting Brexit fears act as a drag on activity. The IMF forecasts GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018 and 1.5% should Brexit pass smoothly. The Bank of England warns that a disorderly no-deal Brexit could trigger an immediate recession worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Anti-Brexit campaigners in Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images

Portugal

Like Italy, Greece, Ireland and Spain, the Portuguese economy tanked during the 2011 eurozone debt crisis, with the country needing a bailout from the IMF and the EU as unemployment soared. Since then the socialist government under prime minister António Costa has overseen a robust recovery. Unemployment has fallen to 6.7%, below the eurozone average, while GDP growth of 1.8% in 2018 is forecast by the European commission, expected to moderate to 1.7% this year. However, debt-to-GDP levels – at 120% – remain the highest in the EU apart from Italy and Greece.

Greece

Still bearing the scars of a decade of austerity, Greece raised money last week on the bond markets for the first time since exiting its support programme from the EU and IMF late last year. Real wages remain as much as 3% below their pre-crisis peak, though GDP growth has gradually returned and is projected to reach 2.4% this year. Unemployment remains at an eye-watering 18.1%; however, it is falling slowly. Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, announced the first increase in the country’s minimum wage in nearly a decade last week.

Ireland

In a dramatic recovery from the financial crisis, when its banks went into meltdown, Ireland is set to record the strongest growth in the EU for 2018. After an international bailout and unemployment hitting 16%, the jobless rate has dropped to 5.3% and is forecast to improve further. GDP growth is forecast at 6% for last year and 4.1% in 2019. However, there are risks from Brexit, given Ireland’s close links to the UK, with the central bank warning that a no-deal scenario may knock four percentage points off the growth rate in the first year.

Spain

Now the strongest performer of the big four euro economies, Spain saw GDP growth of 0.7% over the final three months of 2018, up from 0.6% in the third quarter, in a marked contrast to the slowdown elsewhere. GDP in 2018 was 2.4%, versus average growth in the eurozone of 0.2%. But household spending is expected to ease – meaning growth is forecast to slow to about 2.2% this year, according to the IMF.