CLEVELAND, Ohio – Medical experts now suggest that the coronavirus crisis might force Ohio to extend its stay-at-home mandate and business restrictions into the summer months, further testing the resiliency of our economy and our collective psyche.

If true, what next?

Does the federal bailout – the unemployment benefits and small business loans – last into July? Will the small businesses that have closed ever reopen? Will families go broke? What happens to people already experiencing “cabin fever” after still more months of isolation?

Today, cleveland.com offers answers to those and other questions.

Will the $2 trillion federal CARES Act be adequate?

No, says Robert Smith, partner in wealth management firm Cerity Partners and board chairman of JobsOhio, the state’s economic development arm.

“The federal dollars that are in the CARES Act are significant, but the need is even greater,” Smith told cleveland.com.

Evidence already exists that small businesses are being overwhelmed, he said, including many that are one-person companies.

Many displaced workers are in relatively low-wage service industry jobs and probably don’t have enough savings to tide them through two or three months.

That means the federal government needs to enhance the safety net beyond what already is in place.

Might some small businesses fail if they can’t reopen until summer?

Yes.

A restaurant that has adjusted to carry-out and delivery only “can probably survive for a while,” said David Clingingsmith, associate professor of economics at the Weatherhead School of Economics at Case Western Reserve University. A bookstore without an online presence, however, may have a harder time.

But the type of business matters less to survival than access to credit and the ability to renegotiate debt or lease agreements.

“So it will also depend on things like what are landlords doing about rents,” Clingingsmith said. “What about various types of equipment that people have rented or are leasing and what happens to those lease payments?”

Businesses that own their own buildings and machines “may be able to sort of shutter and stay quiet for a while,” he said, but firms that operate in rented space and with leased equipped could whither without help.

What do small businesses have now in the way of help?

The CARES Act gives businesses with between one and 500 employees until June 30 to seek forgivable loans of up to $10 million or 250 percent of their firm’s payroll.

The money can be used to pay workers, or to pay mortgages, rent or utilities, but only loan proceeds spent within eight weeks of the loan’s origination will not have to repaid. The amount forgiven will be reduced if workers are laid off or salaries reduced.

Should that 8-week period be extended?

Probably.

“It feels like it,” said Michael Goldberg, executive director of the Veale Institute for Entrepreneurship at Case Western Reserve University. “. . . . It just feels like [for] some of those programs, they contemplated a shift back to normal business in a time frame that isn’t realistic anymore.”

Smith and Clingingsmith agree. But the question, Smith said, is whether the government can increase the safety net under current law or whether new federal legislation will be required.

Most of the companies that qualify for forgivable loans have less than 10 employees, Smith said. The larger firms in this category, which include many manufacturers in Ohio, tend to have stronger balance sheets and better relationships with banks and are therefore more sustainable.

What about businesses with 500 to 1,000 employees?

The CARES Act allows those companies that retain 90 percent of their employees through Sept. 20 to borrow an unspecified amount as long as they don’t out-source work during the term of the loan for two years beyond repayment.

Smith couldn’t say much about what additional aid those companies may be getting, but said conversations are ongoing about the unique needs of certain industries, including retail and hospitality, that are extremely vulnerable to the shock.

What about all businesses?

Businesses of all sizes can delay payment of their share of Social Security payroll taxes accrued from late March through the end of 2020. Half of the deferred payment will then be due in 2021 and the other half in 2022.

What about people having a hard time paying mortgages?

The CARES Act prohibits foreclosures for 60 days, from March 18 to May 17, and prevents landlords from initiating eviction proceedings for 120 days, from March 27 to July 25.

Sufficient? For now, Smith said. But the longer the disruption extends, the more likely another piece of federal legislation will be needed to extend that grace period and provide more resources to mitigate the hardships.

As for other types of debt obligations, student loan payments through Sept. 30 have been deferred without penalty and cannot be forcibly collected. Companies also will be allowed to make student loan payments for employees tax free up to $5,250 per year.

Will unemployment benefits need to be extended?

Probably.

The CARES Act provides 13 additional weeks of unemployment benefits beyond the 26 weeks the law already allows. It also gives partial benefits in cases where employers cuts hours instead.

“My judgment is it’s not going to be enough,” said Smith, at JobsOhio, because some businesses won’t come back as fast as others.

Will the stimulus checks be enough for individuals?

Probably not.

The CARES Act will give $1,200 to each adult making less than $75,000 in taxable income and $500 per dependent child. Some employees who are unemployed will get an extra $600 a week until July 31. The legislation also waives penalties for early withdrawal of retirement savings in 2020.

It will be a happy day when those stimulus checks arrive, Smith said, but it’s his guess that they will be needed to buy food and pay bills. “They will probably need more,” he said.

How much more will be dictated by lifestyle changes brought on by the restrictions.

Clingingsmith said more money would be a good thing, but it would be better if increased payouts are targeted to go to those most in need.

How can we mentally cope with an extended stay-at-home order?

Jane Timmons-Mitchell, associate clinical professor of psychology at Case Western Reserve Medical School, believes we should all take inspiration from the queen of England.

The 93-year-old monarch is living testimony that people can get through much worse, she said. Her country weathered nine months of German bombings over England during the “Blitz” of World War II. The British weren’t safe, they had no idea how long the terror would last, and the “outcome was not guaranteed,” Timmons-Mitchell said.

But they made it. And what’s different with the coronavirus is that most people who take proper precautions should survive.

So what else can people do?

Stick with your routines or develop new ones.

Timmons-Mitchell and Joel Hughes, a psychology professor at Kent State University, said it’s important to maintain a schedule and to begin the day by getting dressed, brushing your teeth and making your bed.

Eat some kind of breakfast and go about your day, but with humor, Timmons-Mitchell said. She and her husband send joking emails to each other about their work commute from the kitchen to other rooms in the house.

They take a break each day at 2 p.m. and drive to Shaker Nature Center for a walk before going back to work. “We have drinks at five because that just seems to help,” she added.

It’s also important to limit your expectations to reduce disappointments and be grateful for what you have.

“I mean right now I have a lovely purring cat sitting on my lap,” she said. “If I were in my office that would not be happening.”

It’s a good thing we have smart phones, right?

Yes and no, Hughes said. Technology is good for staying in contact with others. But smart phones and laptops are no substitute for direct human interaction and often a bad choice as an entertainment source.

“Face time on the phone is not the same as being face to face,” he said.

People are social animals. They want to be together, Hughes said, and “nothing electronic can replace that.”

Smart phones don’t provide the “bonding chemicals” that humans need, said Hughes, who suggests going for walks and engaging people that you pass from a safe distance.

Hughes also warns against getting hooked on the dopamine hits your brain absorbs from the perpetual stimulation of watching cat videos and other kinds of entertainment on your phone.

“This is your chance to learn the guitar or trying recipes that you have never tried before.”

Are there other ways technology can help?

Yes, It can provide a level of access to those most vulnerable to mental illness in the face of emotional stress.

Counselors, therapists, psychiatrist and the like will perhaps be more available than they were in the past because regulatory bodies have relaxed rules and a lot more can be done via tele-health, Timmons-Mitchell said.

“It’s not difficult to connect with people,” she said, although it may be hard for a group such as Alcoholics Anonymous to connect via Zoom.

Greater use of tele-medicine in general may even cut costs, Goldberg said, adding that people might opt for online appointments with their doctors if they have a good experience and the cost is cheaper.

Do we face other dangers?

Yes.

As weeks go by, the fear and anxiety that results from prolonged time at home can turn into depression and loneliness for some, Hughes said, and suicides will increase,

“America already has an epidemic of loneliness” he said. “There are a lot of one-person households.”

To help ward off the blues, or worse, Hughes recommends living in “accordance with your values as best you can.”

He also warns against absorbing too much media and getting a distorted view of reality. The odds of dying from coronavirus are low if you’re not in a high-risk group, he said.

“So you want to keep to reputable sites and limit how much news you watch on TV,” he said.

So, stay at home and try not to worry.

“Keep reminding yourself, ‘I’m doing my part,’ ” he said, and that can help stave off depression and loneliness.

See other stories

Should we have been wearing masks all along?

Behind the scenes at a University Hospitals drive-thru coronavirus testing station

Many Northeast Ohio companies are hiring during the coronavirus pandemic and you can apply with the click of a button