Numbers show that much of Obama's fiscal agenda is supported by the public. Battleground Poll: Democratic analysis

A month after Americans cast their ballots, the president, who campaigned unabashedly as a progressive Democrat, now faces a fresh opportunity to govern in the same manner. A new POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll looks at voters’ attitudes now that the election season is over.

To quibble over the definition of the term “mandate” would be a distraction; it is a definition that appears fluid, to say the least, particularly when victories far less robust than the president’s have been dubbed as such.


Beyond the popular vote lead of more than 4 million and 126-vote Electoral College lead won by the president, what we know is this: Voters dealt a decisive defeat to a Republican ideology and agenda that actively thwarts the public’s will and interests on matters both social and economic, and voters rewarded candidates who promised large-scale federal investments in rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure and jobs, a return to higher tax rates on the wealthiest Americans and a staunch commitment to preserve and extend Medicare and Social Security.

Now, those who unsuccessfully pursued a strategy of obfuscation and confusion during the campaign are seeking to double down on that fraud, characterizing the election as having been about small things and deliberately minimizing the election results. Democrats would be wise to ignore those efforts, avoid pundit-driven debates over semantics and heed the voters in this country who are demanding action on their priorities as well as the nation’s. Now is the time for Democrats to translate their words into action.

The image of the president and his party today

After handily clinching reelection, President Barack Obama’s personal popularity and job performance ratings have rebounded, with 52 percent of voters holding a favorable impression of him and half of voters approving of the job he is doing. Obama also earns net-approval ratings on his handling of marriage equality (+6 approve), working with Congress (+5), Medicare (+4) and taxes (+1). Many in the president’s inner circle, including Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, are also held in high regard by voters. Their collective popularity should aid in the implementation of the president’s agenda, especially when contrasted with House Speaker John Boehner’s image. Among voters who know Boehner, he is viewed unfavorably (29 percent favorable to 34 percent unfavorable). Moreover, Democrats have a 3-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.

The economic agenda

While the term “fiscal cliff” is uniquely and deliberately alarming, in truth we find ourselves not staring into an abyss but instead at the intersection of principles and policy. In our focus groups, voters believe this is largely a politically constructed deadline; in public polls, by a 2-1 ratio or more, the public blames Republicans in Congress for the stalemate. This junction offers the president an opportunity to convert his long-held advantage over the GOP on standing up for the middle class in policy reforms. To wit, the country’s economic hardships have been shared neither equally nor proportionally, resulting in an ever-expanding gap between an immensely wealthy elite and the rest of the country. This data and every poll show tremendous support for the wealthy and corporations to start paying their fair share.

The public is overwhelmingly supportive of Democrats’ plans to decrease the deficit, including raising taxes on households earning more than $250,000 (60 percent favor) and raising taxes on corporations (64 percent favor). On these basic tax questions, even 39 percent of Republicans support raising taxes on households earning over $250,000, and 42 percent support raising taxes on large corporations. Democrats favor these revenue generators by over 80 percent and independents support them by over 20-point margins.

Voters are once again displaying their resistance to the warmed-over, trickle-down economic theories peddled by Republicans in Congress. In fact, a 58 percent majority believes that raising taxes on households earning over $250,000 annually will not hurt the economy, including nearly half of all voters (48 percent) who feel this way strongly. This sentiment is shared virtually across the board, traversing gender, generational, racial and educational lines. The only skeptics are ideological conservatives, self-identified Republicans and members of the tea party movement, and even these groups have substantial pools of defectors.

In addition, the red lines voters have drawn around Social Security and Medicare are stark. Voters firmly reject raising the retirement age. Sixty-four percent oppose this idea, compared with just 33 percent who favor it. Strong opposition alone outpaces overall favor, 45 percent to 33 percent. In short, Democrats have winning solutions to right this economy. They should not compromise for the sake of compromise.

However, Democrats do have a very real messaging battle on their hands as the GOP attempts to mischaracterize tax increases on the wealthy and large corporations as attacks on small business. Voters oppose raising the taxes of small businesses earning over $250,000 a year by 40 percentage points (29 percent favor to 69 percent oppose). Identifying, rebutting and moving past this attempted subterfuge is critical because Democrats need to be champions of small business.

Defense cuts represent another issue ripe for demagoguery. The gender gap, which reached historic proportions and facilitated a Democratic win this November, is reversed on this issue, with women recoiling at significant cuts to defense more so than men. Women oppose making significant cuts to the budget of the Defense Department by 28 points (34 percent favor to 62 percent oppose), while men are unfavorable to these cuts by a smaller, 15-percentage-point margin (41 percent favor to 56 percent oppose). As the president did so poignantly in the debates, identifying how technological evolutions have allowed for greater efficiencies in our military (i.e., our diminished dependence on horses and bayonets) can help assuage fears, as can reassuring voters that these cuts would not affect our troops or their families.

Most important, the sooner the president can shift from a debate over the debt to his agenda of job creation, the better. While there is increased concern about the deficit, jobs and the economy still dominate voters’ first- and second-choice concerns (36 percent jobs and the economy to 23 percent government spending and the budget deficit, 35 percent jobs and the economy to 10 percent government spending and the budget deficit, respectively).

The social agenda

Voters’ enthusiasm for fairness and equality is not limited to the economic agenda. On the heels of the Supreme Court’s decision to hear cases pertaining to same-sex marriage, a 69 percent majority of voters supports the recognition of and rights for same-sex couples. This includes a 40 percent plurality who supports marriage equality and fully three in 10 who support civil unions. Public support transcends party, generational, racial, gender and socioeconomic divides. Majorities of liberals (66 percent), voters under 30 (63 percent), Democrats (60 percent), voters who are single (55 percent), infrequent churchgoers (52 percent), women under 45 (51 percent) and fully half of moderates stanchion support for marriage equality.

While attitudes toward marriage are entrenched, 18 percent admit their views on same-sex marriage changed in the past few years, and of those, 84 percent support either legal marriage or civil unions for same-sex couples, demonstrating growing enthusiasm for a definition of marriage that encompasses all couples. Furthermore, two-thirds of those whose views remain unchanged are already supportive of protecting same-sex couples.

Immigration reform is also on the electorate’s agenda, with voters favoring reasonable solutions to address the issue. Majorities support reform that allows aspiring Americans who are currently in the country illegally to earn citizenship (62 percent support) as well as the basic tenet of the DREAM Act — allowing the children of illegal or undocumented immigrants to earn the right to stay in the United States permanently if they complete a college degree or serve in the military (77 percent support). The intensity of support for the DREAM Act is unparalleled, with 59 percent strongly in support. Again, partisan and ideological divides do not hinder support for this proposal, as 65 percent of Republicans, 78 percent of independents and 87 percent of Democrats support it, as do 71 percent of conservatives, 79 percent of moderates and 86 percent of liberals. It stands to reason then that the partisan and ideological bents of the politicians should not hamper the passage of this legislation either.

Looking ahead to 2014

Voter appetite for Democratic leadership does not appear to have been sated by the results of the 2012 elections. On the generic congressional ballot, the Democratic candidate posts an early lead over the Republican: 45 percent to 42 percent. Those who favor the Democratic candidate by the widest margins include many of the constituencies that vaulted the president to success, such as Democrats (+89), African-Americans (+84), liberals (+68), Latinos (+49), voters under 30 (+31), unmarried women (+28), moderates (+22), union households (+18), blue-collar women and men (+16 and +12, respectively), voters in 2012’s battleground states (+11) and women (+7).

Ultimately, the clarity of the national consciousness in its demand for greater economic and social equality cannot be ignored. Democrats have a prime opportunity to capitalize on this call to action. The public voted a mere month ago for a definition of progress that includes all Americans. To yield to the demands of a polarizing and out-of-touch Republican Party would not only be an immoral rejection of the public’s will, it would be politically disastrous.