THE SURGE….Is the surge working? That is, even if you ignore the lack of political progress, are we even making tactical progress? Since violence in Iraq tends to be seasonal, the only reasonable comparison is one between summer 2006 and summer 2007, so I went to the latest Brookings Iraq Index to check out the most recent numbers.

No figures are available for August, and the surge wasn’t completely up and running until June, so the best comparison is between June/July 2006 and June/July 2007. I’m not pretending this is conclusive or anything, but the news sure doesn’t look very good. The two tables below tell the story.

Violence Metrics

June/July

2006 June/July

2007

Change Iraqi Military and Police Killed 349 429 Up 23% Multiple Fatality Bombings 110 82 Down 25% # Killed in Mult. Fatality Bombings 885 1,053 Up 19% Iraqi Civilians Killed

(All violent causes) 6,739 5,300 Hard to say1 U.S. Troop Fatalities 104 187 Up 80% U.S. Troops Wounded 983 1,423 Up 45% Size of Insurgency 20,000+ ~70,0002 Up ~250% Attacks on Oil and Gas Pipelines 8 143 Up 75%

1Methodology changed dramatically between 2006 and 2007, so numbers are highly suspect.

2Number is for March 2007.

3Numbers are for June only. No July numbers are available.

Infrastructure Metrics

June/July

2006 June/July

2007

Change Diesel Fuel Available 26.7 Ml 20.7 Ml Down 22% Kerosene Available 7.08 Ml 6.3 Ml Down 11% Gasoline Available 29.4 Ml 22.2 Ml Down 24% LPG Available 4,936 tons 4,932 tons Down 0.1% Electricity Generated 8,800 Mwatts 8,420 Mwatts Down 4% Hours Electricity Per Day 11.7 10.14 Down ~14%

4No numbers available for June/July. Figure is extrapolated from May and August numbers.