On paper, the 2012 Carolina Panthers are a classic sleeper team. You may have heard about how at least five new teams have reached the N.F.L. postseason every year since 1996, meaning teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season. Generally, at least one of those teams had a bad-but-not-awful record – like, say, 6-10 – the year before.

The Panthers are coming off a six-win season in which they went 4-2 down the stretch. Not bad for a team that went 2-14 the previous season and, coming off the lockout shortened off-season, was acclimating to a virtually all-new coaching staff. That staff, led by Ron Rivera, has now had more than a calendar year to install its systems.

More important, the Panthers have had a year to groom their young franchise quarterback. Not only does the sky seem to be the limit for Cam Newton, 23, but he is surprisingly close to the clouds already (more on that in a moment). The Panthers had the No. 5-ranked scoring offense last season. So, reason says, a healthier defense that can at least be average (it was well below that in 2011, ranking 27th in points and 28th in yards) should make this club a postseason contender, right?

The Panthers seem to think so. In July, the Pro Bowl center Ryan Kalil took out a full page ad in The Charlotte Observer to predict a Super Bowl (he formulated and executed the idea during a burst of midnight creativity). Kalil’s coaches and teammates immediately stood behind him, perhaps because they had no other choice, or perhaps because Kalil’s prose was too laudable to censure (he asked fans to look closer and see “the daunting, unpaved path ahead, lined with detours, naysayers, and walls which seem insurmountable.”) Despite the politics behind the team’s backing of Kalil, optimism seems genuinely high in Carolina.

Of course, in reality, if submitting full-page ads and talking big in interviews actually helped to win games, every team would be helping to prevent its local newspapers and television stations from slowly dying. The Panthers still have a long way to go. But at least they have a realistic shot at getting there.

OFFENSE

Many outside the organization poked fun at Kalil for his Super Bowl ad because, well, that’s the normal reaction to such bravado. But notice that no one completely ridiculed or reproached him for it. No one banged on the tables to remind Kalil that Carolina has finished above .500 only once in the past five years. Kalil can thank Cam Newton for his free pass.

The mere presence of the blossoming star quarterback could make the Panthers playoff contenders. They may not be Super Bowl contenders this year – maybe not even in the immediate future. But they certainly can be in the long haul. At least, that’s the assessment based on Newton’s professional body of work thus far (which is all we have to go by).

No rookie quarterback in N.F.L. history has been as impressive as Newton was in 2011. It’s not just the plays he made with his arm (4,051 yards passing, 21 touchdowns) and legs (706 yards rushing, 14 touchdowns), it’s the plays the Panthers asked him to make. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski did not scale back his playbook. He had Newton make reads and adjustments at the line of scrimmage; he asked Newton to work through progressions from the pocket; he put the ball in Newton’s hands in critical moments and asked even more of him when the stakes were raised.

Newton continuously responded. Sure, he showed plenty of imperfections. His decision-making disintegrated into recklessness at times (as reflected, in part, by his 17 interceptions). And Newton’s accuracy on simpler, rhythmic throws wavered a bit too much (hence his ho-hum 60 percent completion rate).

But the negatives were far outweighed by the positives. Not only did Newton show all of the attributes that made him a star at Auburn (running, strong-armed throws, downfield accuracy), he tailored those attributes into the specific skills that pro quarterbacking demands: the anticipation of passing windows; manipulating defenses with subtle fakes and eye movement; standing firm in a muddy pocket.

Newton showed a level of quarterbacking maturity that most players take years to reach or never reach at all. And keep in mind, he did all this despite being barred from the team’s facility during the lockout.

Newton must learn to apply this kind of maturity to the locker room and huddle. He has acknowledged that he’s too emotionally reactive to the natural ups and downs of the pro game. This is something that will most likely sort itself out (especially because it’s Newton himself, and not someone like Rivera or General Manager Marty Hurney or the owner Jerry Richardson, highlighting the need for change).

A much bigger concern is whether Newton can actually build on his success. Chudzinski did a brilliant job of tailoring his system to Carolina’s personnel. That personnel has changed a bit. No. 1 tight end Greg Olsen is back, but his running mate, Jeremy Shockey is not. Unless fifth-year backup Gary Barnidge can suddenly become a flexible receiving weapon, Chudzinski will have to drift away from the dual tight end sets that defined his offense last season.

With a two-tight-end approach, Carolina’s offense had an inherent unpredictability to it. The Panthers could always line up in a balanced set with a receiver and a tight end on each side of the field. Or, without changing personnel, they could flex into a spread formation. That would stretch a base defense wide, leaving no help for whatever linebacker was matched up on Olsen or Shockey. There were a host of other formation variations in between these two, many of them involving a shotgun. What made this flexibility really potent was the fact that Carolina was great at running out of the shotgun.

Credit Chudzinski for building an unconventional ground game. By going shotgun, he compelled defenses to treat Newton as a run-and-pass threat on every down. That gave defenders an extra set of thoughts to process on each play. Chudzinski gave teeth to this by actually making good on the threat of Newton running (at 244 pounds, Newton, unlike the faster-but-more-fragile Michael Vick, has the strength to absorb hits and finish runs, and he has an innate sense for using his elusiveness to minimize the impact of the blows he takes).

Also, Chudzinski placed an added mental burden on defenders by featuring counters and misdirections in the ground game and play-action. It helped that the Panthers had a pair of upper echelon running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Both were (and still are) fundamentally sound all-around runners with the quickness and shiftiness to create space after receiving the ball from a standstill position.

Expect the Panthers to keep using the shotgun in 2012. With Shockey gone, their base offense will most likely include new fullback Mike Tolbert, which could mean a little less formation flexibility. But Tolbert is a very good pass catcher; aside from Oakland’s Marcel Reece, he’s the only fullback in the league capable of lining up in the slot. Chudzinski can concoct some quality wrinkles with his new base personnel (Tolbert has been seen at H-back, fullback, running back and slot receiver thus far.)

If the Panthers discover they can’t fully spread the field with Tolbert, they’ll settle for traditional three-receiver sets and hope that newcomer Louis Murphy emerges as a threat. Murphy, who was traded from Oakland for a conditional draft pick, flashed potential as a fluid possession-type receiver early in his career (think a slightly more explosive Jabar Gaffney), but injuries have hindered his development.

It’s not an understatement to say the Panthers are relying heavily on Murphy. Yes, they have a perennial top-five caliber receiver in Steve Smith. At 33, Smith can still separate from double coverage on intermediate routes, find open space running after the catch and win jump-balls downfield. But he’s all there is at wide receiver. The threesome of third-year pros rounding out the receiving depth is badly flawed: Brandon LaFell is too methodical, David Gettis is trying to bounce back from a serious knee injury and 2010 third-round pick Armanti Edwards still seems about as raw as he was coming out of Appalachian State.

Shoddy receiving depth isn’t the only reason Carolina, with its dynamic rushing attack, prefers to stay in base personnel. The Panthers’ passing attack is predicated on taking big shots downfield (making the most out of Newton’s arm). Those plays are easiest to execute out of running formations, where you can set up the necessary max-protection, sell run fakes and face the more mundane base defensive packages

The Panthers rely on lots of max protection even though two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross is proficient enough to consistently win battles one-on-one. Gross’s excellence allows for more help on the right side, which tackle Byron Bell and guard Geoff Hangartner need. The undrafted Bell showed good body control in pass protection as a rookie last season, but he still has plenty of room to grow. Hangartner’s issue is a lack of power.

Rounding out the line is one of the league’s best all-around centers, Ryan Kalil, and super-athletic second-round rookie Amini Silatolu, who has a huge transition coming out of Division II Midwestern State. Depth up front is a concern, as unimpressive ex-Colts guard Mike Pollak and tackle Garry Williams (who missed all of last season with a broken ankle) are the only experienced options. However, former Raider Bruce Campbell, a workout warrior with virtually no N.F.L. game experience, impressed during training camp.

DEFENSE

The good news is, Carolina’s issues on defense in 2011 were easy to spot. The bad news is, the issues were easy to spot because they pertained to a lack of talent. Most notably, a lack of linebacking talent. Injuries were largely to blame, though with the middle part of the defense being so important in Ron Rivera’s and Sean McDermott’s scheme, the Panthers still felt it necessary to make big personnel changes.

Hurney spent his first-round pick on Luke Kuechly, who was an instinctive field-reader and prolific tackler at Boston College. Kuechly is perceived by some as a safe, solid pick who will stabilize the defense. The Panthers, however, are counting on him to ignite the defense, and plenty of top football minds believe he can do that.

Kuechly’s arrival and the return of star Jon Beason (back after tearing his Achilles’ last September) could turn the Panthers’ weakness into a strength. But first, Rivera and McDermott must figure out where to play everyone. Beason has excelled inside and outside, so the decision will most likely center on what’s best for Kuechly. Early in training camp, he was set for the weak side, where he’ll have more room to run and chase.

Some have hoped that Thomas Davis could start on the weak side, but having sustained three A.C.L. tears in three years, the 29-year-old is not someone to lean on. The fact that Carolina has kept him around speaks to Davis’s character and, more so, his uncommon athleticism. That athleticism has surely been depleted some, but a nickel role seems like a natural fit (if he still has some nimbleness). However, assuming Beason doesn’t come off the field, Davis would have to take nickel snaps away from starting strongside linebacker James Anderson, which is unlikely. Anderson plays with a respectable burst and has always been fluid in pass defense. Also, it’s possible Kuechly could warrant snaps in nickel.

It won’t matter how stable and assertive this linebacking group is if Carolina’s defensive tackles don’t become more consistent. Last year’s third-round picks, Terrell McClain and Sione Fua, were mostly disappointing. McClain showed decent mobility as a 290-pound gap-shooter, but unrefined technique and a tendency to play tall often made him easy to dislodge. Fua was unnoticeable despite 11 starts and heads into this season slotted behind middling veteran Ron Edwards. Helping Fua’s chances is the fact that Andre Neblett’s four-game suspension could afford him extra snaps early in the season (though Fua is more of a nose tackle and Neblett is more of a three-technique).

Improving against the run will allow this defense to regain some control, but most games are now won and lost through the air. That’s why a tepid pass rush is so debilitating. The Panthers have a double-digit-caliber sack artist in Charles Johnson, but he’s an end with limited speed who relies on power and crafty maneuvering. That’s noble, but not always worthy of a double team.

There isn’t a true pass-rush threat opposite Johnson. Third-year pro Greg Hardy is quick, but he only produced four sacks despite starting all 16 games last season. Hardy’s fellow third-year man, Eric Norwood, offers some athleticism, but not the type that offensive coaches lose sleep over. In fact, some observers think undrafted second-year pro Thomas Keiser can steal Norwood’s roster spot.

If there were much optimism about Norwood, Marty Hurney wouldn’t have spent a fourth-round pick on Oklahoma’s Frank Alexander. Panther fans might cringe at Alexander; being slightly small and not possessing a great burst, he’s a little reminiscent of Everette Brown, arguably the worst investment of Hurney’s 11-year career here. At least Alexander, unlike Brown, didn’t cost the Panthers an additional first-round pick down the road. He has gotten his weight up to 270, but that’s still not big enough to anchor.

Without enough resources to simply line up and rush the passer, Rivera and McDermott will have to manufacture pressure with blitzes and subterfuge. Rivera knows how to do this from having coached a 3-4 scheme in San Diego; McDermott knows how from having learned Jim Johnson’s 46-type scheme in Philadelphia (Rivera also worked under Johnson). Expect to see more of the 46 concepts, as its inside blitzes tend to emphasize strength over speed. To buttress the manufactured pressure, Carolina will shake things up with amoeba looks before the snap. Norwood and Hardy were both used as standup rovers last season, and at the back end of the depth chart is a classic miscellaneous rusher in Antwan Applewhite.

No matter how creative the pass-rushing tactics might get, Carolina’s secondary will be under a lot of pressure to sustain prolonged coverage. Starters Chris Gamble and Captain Munnerlyn are capable of applying the physical jams that help make this mission easier, but neither is a star. Gamble, being a versatile off-coverage defender, will handle the tougher assignments, while Munnerlyn will toggle between the perimeter and slot. Though far from elite, Munnerlyn has the physicality and aggressive mind-set to handle this, and he’s actually a very good blitzer when lined up inside.

The question is, Do the Panthers have someone to fill Munnerlyn’s spot outside in nickel? Darius Butler was disappointing in this capacity last year. Fifth-round rookie Josh Norman drew some good reviews during off-season team activities, but N.F.L. game speed is a big adjustment for any player coming out of tiny Coastal Carolina. There’s also last year’s fourth-round pick, Brandon Hogan, but he got on the field for just three games last season and, at this point, might be an inferior option to former practice squad member R.J. Stanford.

Don’t be surprised if the Panthers wind up using backup safety Haruki Nakamura in nickel, with starting strong safety Charles Godfrey covering the slot. They’ve put Godfrey there before. Ideally, however, they’d like to keep the rangier fifth-year pro in space, where he can read the entire field and not just one receiver. At free safety is Sherrod Martin, who has been somewhat prone to misreads in deep coverage. He split first team reps with Nakamura in camp but will most likely retain his starting job.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Olindo Mare isn’t quite as valuable since kickoffs were moved up to the 35-yard line and seems to have about two or three head-scratching misses each year. He’s in a fierce job competition with Justin Medlock. With Jason Baker gone, the Panthers spent a sixth-round pick on what they hope will be a long-term punter in Brad Nortman. In the return game, Armanti Edwards has been a dud and probably won’t fend off fourth-round rookie Joe Adams on punts. Kealoha Pilares had a few big kick returns last season and is back in that role.

BOTTOM LINE

Cam Newton is a rare enough talent to make the Panthers playoff contenders one day. It’s possible that day can come in 2012, though he’d have to overcome a middling defense and receiving corps.

Predicted Finish: 3rd NFC South

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