I will first qualify this post as speculative and certainly at the risk of being very, very wrong and forever archived in the annals of internet record-keeping, however what follows is my humble personal opinion….

Many evangelists in the blockchain space have been preaching (and probably praying) for blockchain’s “Killer App” moment. The project that brings the “miracles” of blockchain mainstream in a single mass adoption event. This belief is firmly rooted in the history of the previous technology cycle (mobile), where technology adoption accelerated at the quickest pace in history. It took mobile devices 12 years to reach 50M users, YouTube only 4 years, and the PokemonGo app only 19 days.

Where Is BlockChain’s “Killer App”?

By extrapolating consumer mobile based adoption rates, surely many blockchain based projects would reach 50M unique users quite quickly, right? Well not exactly, especially if trading / speculation is excluded:

Bitcoin Network:

28M global wallets with estimated 5.8M to 11.5M “live” wallets

2.9 to 5.8M “active” users

^Global Cryptocurrency Benchmarking Study 2017 (University of Cambridge)

Ethereum Network:

Top DApps:

0x: 127,649 total users, 659 DAUs

CryptoKitties: 81,534 total users, 253 DAUs

Basic Attention Token: 92,738 total users, 164 DAUs

Augur: 52,009 total users, 2 DAUs

^DAppBoard stats October 25, 2018

Mobile Adoption Was Driven by Consumers

The rate of “consumer” oriented mobile adoption has been significantly faster than the adoption rate of “consumer” oriented blockchain, but why is that? The obvious answer is that once deeper infrastructure and platforms are built (mobile networks, app stores, etc.) then certainly technologies can be distributed to and adopted by consumers more quickly. Less obvious is the fact that the mobile revolution was heavily-driven by consumer centric companies (aka “Killer Apps”). Not to take anything away from the likes of Twitter, Netflix, Instagram as engineering / infrastructure marvels (Netflix alone represents 15% of global internet traffic), but the success of these “apps” are directly correlated to consumer audiences and adoption. The confluence of mobile device usage, high speed internet access, and application development and distribution platforms created readily addressable markets in the mobile consumer space, subsequently dominated by on-demand consumer platforms for video, social, content, and more.

Per the Deloitte 2018 Global Blockchain Survey, the top use cases for blockchain in descending order are supply chain, internet-of-things, digital identity, digital records, and digital currency. 84% of executives surveyed said their companies are “actively exploring” blockchain technology. The key takeaways for me are the clear enterprise weighted use cases of blockchain (vs. consumer) and the general enthusiasm gap between consumer and enterprise adoption / interest.

(Note: For the purposes of this discussion I define “consumer” applications as those built primarily for the end user with adoption driven via “word of mouth”. I define “enterprise” applications as those built for both end users and buyers (usually within organizations) with adoption driven via sales.)

This brings me to my overall point — it appears unlikely that the “Killer App” moment for blockchain will come from a project with a heavy consumer focus, primarily because the most practical current use cases of blockchain technology slant heavily towards the enterprise.

Enterprise, Enterprise, Enterprise..

That poses the final question, if blockchain’s initial mass adoption is via enterprise applications, what does that mean for the blockchain industry and current resource allocation? Here are my key takeaways…

First, investment will increase into projects where strategics can contribute ready-made usage and adoption opportunities (i.e. existing businesses and customer bases).

Second, headline adoption will likely be lower due to the nature of enterprise application development (i.e. end consumers will likely “invisibly” adopt blockchain without knowing that their lives have been meaningfully impacted through its use).

Third, technologies and solutions such as Hyperledger and IBM Food Trust to name a few will attract greater industry interest leading to an increased focus on adoption / scalability at the expense of more decentralized models.