SPC AC 291236 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEASTERN FL TO EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon/evening from northeastern Florida across the Carolinas to eastern Virginia. ...Northeastern FL to eastern VA this afternoon/evening... Within a large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley this morning will move northeastward to the southern Appalachians this evening and the Mid-Atlantic overnight. At the surface, cyclogenesis is expected today along a surface cold front immediately east of the Appalachians, and the surface cyclone will develop north-northeastward to northern New England by the end of the period. East of the cyclone and cold front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will continue to spread northward across the Carolinas and southeastern VA. Despite the increase in low-level moisture, buoyancy will remain somewhat limited in the warm sector as a result of poor midlevel lapse rates. Still, pockets of surface heating will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Concurrently, deep-layer vertical shear will increase with the approach of the midlevel trough from the southwest, such that effective bulk shear will reach 40-50 kt. The modest CAPE and long, straight hodographs will favor a mix of line segments or weak supercells along or just ahead of the surface cold front, with the main concern being the potential for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 09/29/2020 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z