GOP ahead of 2008 early vote pace

Until Election Day, there’s no way to know for certain whether or not the GOP’s ground game is better this year than in 2008.

But by one important yardstick – early voting – the GOP is showing notable improvement in key battleground states.

According to data compiled by the United States Election Project and POLITICO, in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, Republicans are running several points ahead of their 2008 pace, while Democrats are running several points behind, in percentage of early votes cast.

Those five are the only swing states that have party registration or offer the statistical breakdowns that enable the comparison.

In Colorado, Republicans have cast 38 percent of the early vote to 35 percent for Democrats and 27 percent for unaffiliated voters. Four years ago, the numbers were reversed: Democrats cast 38 percent, Republicans 36 percent and independents 26 percent.

In Iowa, 43 percent of the early vote this year has been cast by Democrats, 32 percent by Republicans and 24 percent by no party or other. In 2008, the numbers were 47 (D) 29 (R) 24 (NP).

While Nevada doesn’t provide comparative statewide early vote data between 2008 and 2012, a similar pattern emerges in the two counties where the bulk of the state vote will be cast – the Democratic percentage of early votes is down slightly and there’s an uptick in the GOP percentage.

In both Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno), Democrats continue to outpace Republicans, but by a diminished margin over 2008.

Back then, Democrats held a 52 percent to 31 percent early vote advantage in Clark County. This year, the margin is 48-33. In Washoe, it was 47-35 in 2008 and it’s 41-40 this year.

It’s a mistake to draw too many conclusions from the swing state early vote numbers – early voting isn’t over yet and there are too many state-specific variables to make broad conclusions about what it all means.

But, if nothing else, the early vote suggests that in the states where it matters most, GOP turnout efforts are better organized and operating at a higher level than four years ago. And that matters a great deal in an election that figures to be exceptionally close.