And just like that, the winter of our discontent is almost over. Tomorrow, all 30 teams celebrate Opening Day, and their fans with them. But before play begins, we at FanGraphs will observe our annual tradition of attempting to predict what will happen this year, before we commence our other annual tradition of getting some things wrong. Last year was a mixed bag. Astros? Nailed it. Cubs and Dodgers? Aren’t our moms proud! Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, Rookie of the Year winners? Can’t say we saw that coming.

We gathered predictions from writers across our family of blogs; what follows are the results.

The American League

The American League predictions are marked by their overwhelming sameness. Of the 40 ballots cast, a full 29 have the Astros, Indians, and Yankees sitting atop their divisions come the season’s end. Eight others feature the Astros and Indians but swap in the Red Sox for the Yankees. That isn’t so surprising: we currently project Houston to win 100 games, while New York, Cleveland, and Boston check in at 95, 94, and 93 wins, respectively.

And while the staff and the projections expect the first Wild Card spot to fall to either the Yankees or the Red Sox, there is a bit more wiggle room in the second Wild Card. The Angels receive more total Wild Card and playoff votes and take the prize here, but the Twins aren’t far behind. We might call it the Hey, They Still Have Mike Trout Effect if we enjoyed naming things.

One place the staff diverges sharply from projections? The Blue Jays. Much like our readers, we don’t think much of Toronto’s current 86-win projection, or the second Wild Card spot that goes with it.

And we don’t have much faith in the teams in the middle to surprise either. The Mariners and A’s are projected to win 80 games a piece this year, with the Rangers pegged at 79, and the Orioles and Rays each thought good for 78 wins. Those are all flawed squads — if they were less flawed they’d be expected to win more games! — but they managed just five total votes between them.

Staff Predictions: AL East Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs New York 31 8 0 39 Boston 9 21 3 33 Toronto 0 0 5 5 Baltimore 0 0 0 0 Tampa 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: AL Central Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Cleveland 37 0 0 37 Minnesota 3 1 14 18 Chicago 0 0 0 0 Detroit 0 0 0 0 Kansas City 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: AL West Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Houston 38 1 1 40 Los Angeles 2 7 14 23 Oakland 0 0 3 3 Seattle 0 2 0 2 Texas 0 0 0 0

The National League

The National League vote leans similarly toward consensus. Indeed, 28 of the ballots cast have the Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals winning their divisions. The Nationals appear as a playoff team on every ballot, in one form or another. The Dodgers receive 39 playoff votes. We’re attributing Roger Cormier’s decision to purposely pick against favorites — and thus exclude LA entirely — to be the result of cultivated eccentricity or perhaps an extreme view of Justin Turner’s importance.

A bit more excitement comes in the Wild Cards. Last year’s Wild Card loser, the Colorado Rockies, is expected to miss the postseason entirely. The staff likes the Cardinals a lot and expects the Diamondbacks to return. And almost half the staff expects the Brewers to outperform their modest 79-win projection and make the playoffs, though opinions vary on exactly which spot they’ll occupy. They’re tied with the Diamondbacks in total playoff votes.

The Phillies aren’t expected to be a Wild Card team or challenge for the division, but the eight Wild Card votes they receive here represents a step up from the one (out of 55) they received last year. On the flip side, the staff is unmoved by the prospect of healthy pitching or Adrian Gonzalez, and gives the Mets just four playoff votes. They received 40 last year.

Staff Predictions: NL East Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Washington 39 1 0 40 New York 1 1 2 4 Philadelphia 0 0 8 8 Atlanta 0 0 0 0 Miami 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: NL Central Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Chicago 29 6 1 36 St. Louis 4 17 4 25 Milwaukee 7 7 5 19 Pittsburgh 0 1 1 2 Cincinnati 0 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: NL West Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs Los Angeles 38 1 0 39 Arizona 1 5 13 19 Colorado 1 1 2 4 San Diego 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 4 4

Individual Awards

Carlos Correa is very good, and Jose Altuve just won, and the reigning NL MVP is now lurking in the AL. But the thing about Mike Trout is that one injury-shortened season (in which he still managed a very nice 6.9 WAR) is not enough to dissuade people that he’s the best player in baseball.

Staff Predictions: AL MVP Player Votes Mike Trout 22 Giancarlo Stanton 6 Carlos Correa 4 Jose Altuve 3 Mookie Betts 2 J.D. Martinez 1 Aaron Judge 1 Francisco Lindor 1

Last year, Chris Sale narrowly edged out Corey Kluber in these predictions. Kluber won. This year, Chris Sale narrowly edges out Corey Kluber in these predictions. Will Kluber win again? We’ll find out!

We’re putting our faith in the idea that Shohei Ohtani’s rough spring doesn’t matter too much — which, for a guy who is adjusting to a new league and a new ball, seems like a good bet. Then again, last year, Andrew Benintendi was our overwhelming favorite. Isn’t it nice that we can still be surprised by things?

MVP isn’t as settled in the NL as we believe it to be in the AL, though the idea of a soon-to-hit-free-agency Bryce Harper proved alluring to many. Paul Goldschmidt always seems like he should do better in these sorts of things. The idea of Marlins fans having to watch Christian Yelich turn in an MVP performance the season immediately after Giancarlo Stanton did — while both of them wear other people’s laundry — feels deeply unkind.

I chose Max Scherzer because I know what it is like to have your whole day ruined by your back hurting just a little, and I mostly get to sit down. So Clayton Kershaw’s 2017 makes me nervous. The majority of my colleagues think Kershaw will make me look silly.

We like Ronald Acuña a lot, service time tomfoolery be damned. Really, damned. Damn it to hell.

So that’s it, that’s the whole season. We look forward to being proven right and wrong, and writing about how and why. We hope you’ll tag along for the ride. Happy baseball!

2018 American League Staff Predictions Author East Central West WC 1 WC 2 MVP Cy Young RoY Al Melchior NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Trout Sale Torres Alec Denton NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Stanton Verlander Torres Alex Chamberlain NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Correa Archer Calhoun Andrew Perpetua NYY CLE HOU LAA BOS Altuve Severino Ohtani Ben Kaspick NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Correa McCullers Ohtani Ben Pasinkoff NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Trout Kluber Ohtani Birchwood Brothers NYY CLE HOU SEA BOS Betts Cole Kopech Brad Johnson NYY CLE HOU SEA TOR Judge Sale Hays Brandon Warne NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Trout Kluber Ohtani Brice Russ BOS CLE HOU NYY LAA Trout Sale Ohtani Carson Cistulli NYY CLE HOU LAA TOR Trout Carrasco Calhoun Craig Edwards NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Trout Kluber Ohtani David Laurila BOS CLE HOU NYY MIN Trout Bauer Barreto Dustin Nosler NYY CLE HOU LAA MIN Trout Severino Jimenez Eli Ben-Porat BOS CLE HOU NYY LAA Trout Kluber Andujar Eric Longenhagen NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Lindor Cole Ohtani Jay Jaffe NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Stanton Severino Ohtani Jeff Sullivan NYY CLE HOU BOS OAK Altuve Sale Ohtani Jeff Zimmerman BOS CLE HOU NYY MIN Stanton Sale Torres Jon Roegele NYY CLE HOU BOS TOR Altuve Sale Ohtani Josh Shepardson BOS CLE HOU NYY LAA J.D. Martinez Kluber Kopech Justin Mason BOS CLE HOU NYY LAA Trout Sale Ohtani Justin Vibber NYY CLE HOU BOS TOR Stanton Sale Jimenez Kiley McDaniel NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Trout Kluber Andujar Meg Rowley NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Trout Sale Ohtani Mike Podhorzer NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Trout Sale Ohtani Neil Weinberg NYY CLE HOU LAA BOS Trout Kluber Ohtani Nick Pollack NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Trout Sale Ohtani Paul Sporer NYY MIN HOU LAA OAK Correa Verlander Jimenez Rian Watt NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Trout Sale Ohtani Roger Cormier BOS MIN LAA NYY HOU Trout Verlander Calhoun Ryan Pollack BOS CLE HOU LAA OAK Trout Sale Andujar Scott Spratt NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Trout Archer Ohtani Scott Strandberg NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Stanton Kluber Ohtani Sean Dolinar NYY MIN LAA HOU TOR Trout Sale Ohtani Shane Tourtellotte BOS CLE HOU NYY MIN Correa Sale Calhoun Sheryl Ring NYY CLE HOU MIN LAA Stanton Kluber Ohtani Stephen Loftus NYY CLE HOU LAA MIN Trout Kluber Ohtani Travis Sawchik NYY CLE HOU BOS MIN Trout Kluber Ohtani Trey Baughn NYY CLE HOU BOS LAA Betts Kluber Calhoun