The Indiana Pacers sat idle as the Miami Heat passed them in the Eastern Conference standings last night.

The Indiana Pacers celebrated a huge comeback win against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night, not only because it had Lance Stephenson antics, but because it put them back in 8th place in the Eastern Conference.

But as they rested on Wednesday, the Miami Heat tied up their record with Indiana’s, bumping the Pacers back out of the playoff picture.

It is never easy, is it?

The Pacers have a 36% chance of missing out on the postseason going into tonight’s game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse against the Milwaukee Bucks. PlayoffStatus.com also has Indiana with a 29% chance of getting the 8th seed and a 18% of landing the 7th seed. They also give a 5% shot at the 5th seed, and a 12% chance of getting the 6th seed, but with the Pacers currently in 9th place, that seems a bit optimistic to worry about at the moment.

From the 5th seed to 9th place, there are only two games between all five teams. Currently the Pacers are on the short end of things, but the next few days might clear up the picture.

What are the best and worst case scenarios for the Indiana Pacers?

The good news is by Playoff Status’ calculations, a win in itself should booth Indiana’s chances of making the playoffs to 77%. But as of Thursday afternoon, Indiana doesn’t control its own fate.

The best case scenario for Indiana is a win by themselves and for the Boston Celtics to beat the Atlanta Hawks tonight along with the Raptors beating the Heat on Friday. If that happens, the Pacers will go into Saturday’s game against the Orlando Magic with a 83% chance of making the playoffs and will have regained control of their playoff fate.

The worst case scenario happens when you flip those games around — Bucks beats Pacers, Hawks beats Celtics, Heat beats Raptors — as that would drop the Pacers playoff chances down to 30%, and officially take them out of the running for the 5th seed.

The other games of interest from Friday and Saturday include the Hawks at the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Chicago Bulls at the Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee at the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Heat at the Washington Wizards. All of those could end up playing a part if these teams can’t find any space between each other in the standings.

The Indiana Pacers must control what they can

Indiana needs to win two of its final four games to put itself in comfortable position, but they still need help before they would regain control of their playoff hopes. While the chances might be slim, there are scenarios where Indiana wins three or four of their remaining games and misses the playoffs.

All you really need to know is Indiana needs the Hawks, Bucks, Bulls, and Heat to lose while they move ahead of them in the standings. Indiana is either tied or has a losing record to all those teams, and their divisional records breaks the tie in the wrong direction for the Pacers.

It is pretty simple for the Pacers: Just win and hope the absolute worst case scenario doesn’t play out (1% chance) to keep them out of the postseason.