Former Toronto police chief Bill Blair is battling it out in Scarborough in a race that’s too close to call, while high-profile Conservative candidate Joe Oliver is trailing in the hotly contested Eglinton-Lawrence riding, according to new public opinion polls by Forum Research.

Forum results show Blair, who had the support of as much as 42 per cent of residents in Scarborough Southwest when first nominated as a Liberal candidate in the spring, has since dropped to 35 per cent support — a statistical tie with NDP candidate Dan Harris, (32 per cent) the next leading contender in the riding.

Not far behind the pair is Conservative Roshnan Nallaratnam, pulling 27 per cent support. The Greens are at 5 per cent support, while 1 per cent selected “other.”

“It appears the entry of a competent Conservative candidate in this race has drawn votes away from Bill Blair, while not contributing any to the incumbent (Harris),” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

Meanwhile, in another closely watched Toronto-area race, Conservative Joe Oliver (38 per cent) is trailing Liberal candidate Marco Mendicino (44 per cent) in Eglinton-Lawrence.

The NDP have 17 per cent support, and the Greens 2 per cent.

Oliver is the Conservative finance minister.

“I’m not taking anything for granted,’’ says Mendicino, who is campaigning hard on the federal Liberals’ plan to invest in public infrastructure, which Mendicino adds is badly needed in Eglinton-Lawrence.

Dan Miles, Oliver’s campaign manager, said the Forum poll “doesn’t reflect our internal polling and canvassing.”

“Our campaign is getting a very positive response at the door to our low-tax, balanced budget plan for jobs and growth. Residents of Eglinton–Lawrence do not support higher taxes and permanent deficits that the Justin Trudeau Liberals propose,” Miles added.

Respondents in the Forum polls where asked which candidate/party they support or are leaning toward.

The sample size for the Scarborough poll, conducted Sept. 19 and 20, is 608 respondents, while the Eglinton-Lawrence survey, done Sept. 21, surveyed 634 respondents.

In a separate Forum poll on the race in Etobicoke Centre, Conservative Ted Opitz (42 per cent support) is deadlocked with Liberal candidate Borys Wrzesnewskyj (43 per cent), according to Forum.

In an interview, Wrzesnewskyj said the poll results demonstrate how every vote in the riding will count in the Oct. 19 election and should serve as a “wake-up call” for progressive voters in Etobicoke Centre to get out and cast their ballots.

Wrzesnewskyj was an MP for seven years in the riding before losing to Opitz in 2011 by only 26 votes.

Eleven per cent support or are leaning toward the NDP candidate in the riding, while 3 per cent of voters favour the Greens, and 1 per cent said “other.” This poll was conducted Sept. 10 and 11, with 885 respondents.

Yet another Forum survey has Liberal James Maloney out in front in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, with 41 per cent of voters favouring him. Conservative Bernard Trottier is in second place at 33 per cent.

“This has been a long-time Liberal riding, and it turned over to the Conservatives in 2011 when the Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff ran here. It appears that, now a less vilified candidate is running, the riding is returning to its default red hue,” Bozinoff said.

Running federally for the first time, Maloney, was an interim Toronto city councillor for five months, taking over after former councillor and current Liberal MPP Peter Milczyn (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) won a seat in the provincial election last year.

“A lot of people in this riding dislike what has happened in the last 10 years at the federal level,” says Maloney’s campaign director Julien Di Ciano.

There was 22 per cent support for the NDP candidate Phil Trotter, and 4 per cent for the Greens, Forum found. This poll was conducted on Sept. 17 with a sample size of 835 adult voters.

Forum’s two Etobicoke polls have a margin or error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Due to the smaller sample sizes, the Scarborough and Eglinton-Lawrence polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Forum’s polls are weighted statistically by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.