"It's lasted nine months longer than a lot of commentators thought it would," said the Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie, a part of the arrangement. "They've done a very good job of turning a hung parliament into a working parliament." And Mr Abbott's prospects of winning any defections to bring down the government appear to have no prospect of success in the short term. With the support of the crossbenchers, the government has passed 191 bills through the House of Representatives in its first year. It says this is more than the 108 bills the Howard government passed in its first year. The government introduced its carbon pricing bills into the House this week and it appears to have the numbers to vote them into law by the end of this year.

Last month Mr Abbott appealed for the independents' support: "It's not too late for them to listen to their electorates," he said. "I am happy to keep talking to them. I've been talking to them ever since the election. I'll keep talking to them." But Mr Windsor, a NSW independent, said Mr Abbott's aggressive tactics had driven the independents ever closer to the Prime Minister. "Tony is good insurance for her," he told the Herald. And he said his regular meetings with the Opposition Leader in parliamentary sitting weeks had lapsed about a month ago. "He's probably thinking, 'Tony Windsor is a lost cause in terms of changing government'." Mr Oakeshott angrily broke off his weekly meetings with Mr Abbott several months ago.

Mr Windsor said that Mr Abbott's style of opposition had become so fevered that he was "almost hoping that the country collapses so that it can be a self-fulfilling case". Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor were critical of Mr Abbott for changing his position on the term of the Parliament. They said they asked him during negotiations to form government whether he wanted another election. "He was offered an election and he refused and instead he begged for the job," Mr Windsor said. "Now he's begging the constituency for another election." Mr Oakeshott said he had a letter from Mr Abbott promising to support a full three-year term for the Parliament. Mr Oakeshott said the government's "biggest vulnerability" was Craig Thomson, the Labor MP under police investigation for alleged fraud. To be disqualified from Parliament, he would have to be convicted by a court.

But many Coalition members regard Mr Wilkie as a prospective defector. Unlike the other two independents, he said he had "a good working relationship with Tony Abbott". He has repeatedly sworn to withdraw support from the Labor government if it fails to legislate mandatory pre-set limits on the size of poker machine bets by May next year. Loading Mr Wilkie said he was "very confident" it would not ''come to that", but the policy is creating intense angst among Labor backbenchers. Some are considering trying to overturn it in the caucus. If so, Mr Wilkie said, he would align himself "maybe with Abbott, maybe with no one".