Houston ISD administrators still want to offer minimal raises and keep employees’ health insurance costs flat in the upcoming school year, even as the novel coronavirus pandemic causes enormous uncertainty about the future of school funding, district officials said Monday.

In the district’s first public budget discussions since the pandemic, Interim Chief Financial Officer Glenn Reed said HISD leaders are willing to run a meager deficit, initially projected at $18 million, to maintain its spending plan crafted before the coronavirus came to Houston. HISD easily could cover the deficit by using money from a “rainy day” fund that totals about $500 million.

About a week before schools across Texas shut down, HISD officials pitched the same budget that included an additional $24 million for employee raises — an increase of 1 percent to 2 percent, if applied across-the-board — and $11 million to ensure employees’ health insurance costs do not increase. At the time, district leaders said they would avoid a budget deficit.

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That outlook changed with the arrival of the coronavirus and collapse of the oil market — but only slightly.

The relatively modest deficit projection reflects the prevailing belief that Texas public school districts will not take a major financial hit in 2020-21, given that state funding already has been allocated for the year and property values were largely set prior to the pandemic. State funds and taxes on property comprise the vast majority of public school funding.

However, Reed said district officials are bracing for significantly larger deficits in 2021-22, when the full effects of the coronavirus and collapse in oil prices are felt.

Under one early projection shown by Reed, a 4-percent decline in property values in 2021-22 could put HISD at a deficit of about $87 million — even before any state-level cuts kick in. HISD saw property values fall by 4 percent during the financial crisis in 2010-11.

“That’s all going to catch up to us in 2021,” Reed said. “What’s going to happen to home values from unemployment? Commercial and business values from a reduction in production and sales? What’s the economy going to look as we come around to January of next year?”

Projections about the final impact of the coronavirus and oil market collapse on local public schools remain in the earliest stage.

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Ultimately, the bottom line will depend on multiple factors: the true economic fallout from the pandemic, the speed at which Texas’ oil market bounces back, the amount of federal funding allocated to buoy districts, the willingness of state legislators and district leaders to tap their hearty “rainy day” funds.

Still, the prospect of devastating revenue reductions has rattled education leaders, who worry about the potential for layoffs and reductions in programs for children. State officials have warned districts to budget conservatively for the upcoming fiscal year, cognizant of the potential for cuts in 2021-22.

“I just want us to be really thoughtful in our budget this year (so) that we don’t set ourselves up for for having to (layoff) more staff next year when we’re having a really big problem with legislative revenue,” HISD Board President Sue Deigaard said.

HISD officials are proposing a 2020-21 budget that largely mirrors this year’s spending plan. Trustees are expected to vote on the recommended budget in June.

The proposed $24 million increase in salary spending would not be enough to push HISD’s teacher salaries into the top half among districts in the Greater Houston area. HISD teachers earn about $3,000 to $5,000 less in salary than peers in the highest-paying districts, though benefits packages vary.

A compensation committee comprised of HISD administrators, educators and union representatives is still meeting to discuss recommendations for how to allocate any money for raises.

jacob.carpenter@chron.com

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