Xerxes Wilson

The News Journal

A poll released Monday shows Kevin Kelley leading in Wilmington mayoral primary.

Four candidates registered in the single digits.

Eight candidates are running in the primary.

Former City Councilman Kevin Kelley has pulled out front in the crowded Democratic primary for Wilmington mayor, according to a poll released Monday that shows 21 percent surveyed are still unsure of which candidate they will vote for on Sept. 13. Four of the eight candidates polled in the single digits.

The automated landline telephone poll, commissioned by The News Journal and University of Delaware Center for Political Communication, was conducted July 6-10 and surveyed 284 Wilmington residents who identified themselves as likely Democratic primary voters. The poll has a margin of error of 5.8 percentage points.

Eighteen percent of respondents said they would vote for Kelley if the election were held today, followed by 14 percent for former Riverfront Development Corp. Executive Director Mike Purzycki, 13 percent for incumbent Mayor Dennis P. Williams, 11 percent for City Council President Theo Gregory, 9 percent for Delaware Center for Justice Advocacy Director Eugene Young, 8 percent for former City Council President Norman Griffiths and 2 percent each for Councilwoman Maria Cabrera and state Sen. Bob Marshall.

Center for Political Communication Director Paul Brewer said that while the poll does not indicate a clear favorite in advance of the Sept. 13 primary, it does show Marshall and Cabrera will need something drastic to happen to have any chance of winning. Kelley, Purzycki and Williams are pulling ahead while Gregory, Griffiths and Young are within striking distance of the front-runners, Brewer said.

"You have a cluster of candidates at the top. Then a few that are high-single digits and then a couple that seem to be non-factors," Brewer said. "It is not a snapshot of who is going to win, but it does tell us about the state of the race right now."

Six candidates are within the poll's margin of error. The nine-question poll was conducted by Raleigh, North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling.

The primary in Wilmington Democratic typically serves as the de facto general election for city contests because registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 5 to 1. This year, no Republicans have entered the election. Steven Washington will be on the November ballot as an Independent.

The last day to enter the race is Tuesday.

Much of the election has focused on public safety and economic development, with Williams defending his track record and ability to lead the city in a second term. The city has for years been grappling with gun violence, dwindling population and a shrinking corporate job base.

Of those polled, Kelley, who is white, received the highest percentage of support from black residents, at 21 percent.

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"Many don't view me as white. They view me as Kevin Kelley. There is not a racial tag," Kelley said. "I don't profess to know what it is like to be African-American, but I do know what African-Americans want like the rest of us: They want to be safe, they want good education for their kids and they want jobs."

Brewer said the racial breakdown of support among the top three shows the strength of Kelley and weakness of Purzycki and Williams.

"That suggests the opportunity for [Kelley] to be the candidate that can cut across racial lines," Brewer said.

Purzycki received the least amount of support from black voters, at 2 percent. He said Monday that he didn't see the figure as a problem as he tries to present himself to voters as a job creator.

"I think people are going to be very surprised with how I do in the African-American communities," said Purzycki, who was supported by the largest margin, 34 percent, of white voters surveyed. "People in our African-American communities are concerned about crime and the conditions in their neighborhoods and a lack of employment opportunities."

Purzycki said polls are difficult in a primary race where less than 20 percent of the city will vote.

The result “doesn't surprise me, but I don't think you can put too much stock in your results,” he said.

Political observers say Purzycki is likely to benefit most from about 1,250 Republicans and independents who changed party affiliation to Democrat this year.

Purzycki's campaign led a charge to recruit Republicans to switch to support his campaign. The effort included Republican Jane Castle, wife of former Gov. and Rep. Mike Castle, who has also campaigned for Purzycki.

The poll also found strong support for rules that allow residents to change registration ahead of primaries where only voters registered to a party can cast ballots. Fifty-six percent said they supported the current system while 22 percent opposed.

Brewer said Williams’ 13 percent and third-place performance is low for an incumbent.

"Williams has been in office; he supposedly has more name-recognition than many of these candidates," Brewer said.

City officials have been battling public safety issues and 72 shooting incidents so far this year. Last year, 26 people were killed by gunfire. In 2014, Newsweek profiled the city’s fight with a story headlined “Murder Town USA (aka Wilmington, Delaware)."

Opponents of Williams have framed the current election as a referendum on the mayor, and 69 percent in The News Journal poll said things in Wilmington are headed in the wrong direction.

Williams did not return a phone call seeking comment.

Ed Osborne, Williams' campaign manager, said the mayor is confident because no opponent has distinguished himself or herself from the crowd and the mayor still has a strong base of support.

"The bottom line is, we are not dismayed, and we will see you on the 13th of September," Osborne said. "All I have to do is look at his opponents. When people say they don't want to vote for Mayor Williams and ask them who do they plan to vote for, then the hesitation starts."

Former Mayor James Baker said the crowded field will likely see the winner receive a very small minority of the share of total votes cast. Some say this benefits the incumbent, who will likely pull many votes because of the name recognition that goes along with holding office.



"There are so many candidates; the vote is going to get chopped up quite a bit,” Baker said.

Young, a newcomer to Wilmington politics, said the numbers are what he expected and show he is "in the thick of it."

"You have candidates that have been part of the Wilmington political machine for the past 20 and 30 years," Young said. "It is going to come down to, obviously, getting the name recognition out there and continuously meeting with people and showing solutions to the problems we have in the city."

Rhett Ruggerio, a Dover lobbyist and campaign manager for Baker, said the incumbent typically benefits from the crowded field. This year may be different with all the negative publicity the city has seen, he said.

"The mayor has built-in constituencies: people that work with him and work for him. That is a big part of the voter base," Ruggerio said. "You start dividing the pie up, pretty soon the guy who is the current mayor working with people has a shot based on that alone."

Crowded primaries also concern the state Democratic Party, and Chairman John Daniello last week sent a letter to all 63 Democrats who filed to run in the September primary, asking them to give "a second and third thought to your candidacy.”

Party officials have said having so many candidates in a primary makes it difficult for a front-runner to break out and creates a challenge in the general election.

Gregory also questioned the results of the survey released Monday and pointed to his own poll, commissioned in late June, that showed him ahead.

"I'm in double digits, and Kelley is in double digits," Gregory said of his poll. "I'm confident. I'm going to be the next mayor. Your poll is absolutely flawed."

Griffiths described his showing in the poll as "disappointing."

"I plan to be there to the end," Griffiths said. "We have to put on our boots and work harder to make sure our message gets out to the people of Wilmington."

Brewer said the mid-tier candidates are still within striking distance, especially if the field thins.

"If even one or two drop out, it might free up enough support to have someone come out as the new leader," Brewer said.

Ruggerio said the poll shows that Marshall and Cabrera should consider dropping out.

"Obviously, Bobby and Maria are polling at 2 percent. I don't see a path forward for them," Ruggerio said. "These other guys, any one of them again could catch fire and win."



Cabrera agreed that the field is too large, but said she has no intention of dropping out. She said polls are not always inclusive of people who are giving her confidence heading into the primary.

"Three hundred people with landlines is not my demographic or target audience," Cabrera said. "As a council member, I am out here on the street in some of the most blighted neighborhoods talking to people whose voices have not been heard."

Marshall also said he has no intention of dropping out. He described the campaign as a horse race that is only half over. He said he is confident as more people see his record, he will gain traction.

"I'm a little disappointed, yes," Marshall said. "Has it shaken my confidence to make the run through? No."

Griffiths was not immediately available Monday to comment on the poll.

Brewer said being within the margin of error is a “tough place to be when it is a crowded field." A lot can change before Election Day, especially if any candidate drops out, he said.

"We have got two months to go still toward the primary and a lot of flux in the race," Brewer said. "Looking at these numbers, there is potential for movement."

Annette Collins, an Eastside resident, is among the 21 percent of voters polled who are undecided. Fed up with politicians' empty promises, she said she will likely not support anyone in this mayoral race.

“They don’t do nothing,” Collins said on Monday. “Before they get in office, they say they're going to do this and do that, and then nothing changes.”

She added that the number of candidates in the race will definitely split the vote and make it difficult for other Wilmington residents to decide what candidate they will support.

Damond Gibson, a longtime Wilmington resident who is undecided on which candidate he will vote for, said none have distinguished themselves in the race.

“They talk a good game, but they aren’t doing anything to stop it [crime],” Gibson said. “Look at the mayor; he says we need to stop doing this and that, but he’s not doing anything. What is he doing?”

Contact Xerxes Wilson at (302) 324-2787 or xwilson@delawareonline.com. Follow @Ber_Xerxes on Twitter. Reporter TyLisa C. Johnson contributed to this story.

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