Prospect of violence in Kenya worries the West Kenya has been a stable nation in an unstable region and it is not a country that can be allowed to fail, writes Sky's Sam Kiley.

Kenyans braced for unrest ahead of elections

A pregnant elephant lies grunting for breath. As bluebottle flies begin to feast, she makes a last feeble wave of her trunk and is put out of her misery.

This scene on Mugie Ranch, where 21 elephants have been killed by land invaders this year along with 400 buffalo is sad, of course.

But it also has implications for Kenya's future stability and by extension to wider issues of international terrorism.

Kenya has been a stable nation in an unstable neighbourhood. South Sudan has returned to civil war. Ethiopia has a persistent insurgency in the south.

Somalia is a breeding ground for al Qaeda terrorists.


On top of that, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and eastern Congo rely on its Mombasa port as a link to the outside world.

Inmates wait to cast their vote in a maximum security prison in Kisumu on Lake Victoria ▲ It's the first time prisoners have been allowed to vote and they can only cast their ballot in the presidential election ▲ A Kenyan Samburu warrior arrives to vote after the polls open ▲ The presidential election is a too-close-to-call battle between incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and his rival Raila Odinga ▲ There are also hundreds of local elections taking place across the country ▲ Turnout is expected to be high among voters in Kenya, which is east Africa's richest economy ▲ There are fears violence could break out in the wake of the divisive election ▲ The government has deployed more than 150,000 security personnel to protect polling stations around the country ▲ President Uhuru Kenyatta casts his vote in the election ▲ Opposition leader Raila Odinga stands atop of a vehicle outside the Kiberia slums of Nairobi after voting ▲ People queued through the night in Nairobi ahead of the polls opening at 6am ▲ People wait in line to cast their ballot in the general elections at a polling station in Eldoret, western Kenya ▲ There are more than 40,000 polling stations across the country ▲ Once people have voted one of their fingers is marked with ink by election officials ▲

Kenya is not a nation that can be allowed to fail.

The US and UK are so worried that they've pumped about £60m into projects aimed at mitigating political violence in elections, scheduled to take place on Tuesday.

But the elephant cow died in Laikipia, an arid but beautiful landscape where mostly white-owned ranches maintain a delicate balance between conserving wildlife and raising cattle.

Now the region has been flooded by cattle, thought to number about 160,000 from the north, which have been driven into the ranches by members of the Pokot, Samburu and Turkana tribes.

They have been given huge numbers of weapons and seemingly limitless ammunition.

Ethnic conflict has cursed Kenya since the first democratic elections in 1992. In 2007 more than 1,000 people were killed after the elections.

Image: Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta (L) flanked by his deputy William Ruto

The current president Uhuru Kenyatta and his then rival William Ruto were indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity following the bloodletting.

The cases against them were later dropped and they formed a coalition ruling together under the banner of the Jubilee Party.

In the last week, opposition leader Raila Odinga's camp have alleged that if they lose it will only be because the election was rigged.

A week ago, the IT manager for the electoral commission was found dead, his body showed signs of torture.

"It was clearly a political murder," veteran anti-corruption campaigner John Githongo told Sky News.

He added: "It's not just Kenyans but our regional neighbours and the world beyond that are watching and praying that we don't cock [this election] up.

"Our neighbours especially have been delivering some very strong messages saying that Kenya cannot be allowed to fail."

But he warned that the combination of land hunger, a huge gap between rich and poor, and with the guns and ammunition that have come into northern Kenya was a "dangerous and toxic mix".

Image: Kenya has been a stable nation in an unstable region

In Laikipia the numbers of cattle that have invaded farms as the vanguard for nomadic pastoralists has fallen. There are conflicting reports as to why.

The first is that the herders have been warned that the government will use the Kenyan army to dislodge them with heavy casualties.

The other is that they have been promised that, after the election, they will be allowed to take the land for themselves permanently.

Neither option will reassure Kenya's western donors, its neighbours, or indeed Kenyans themselves who have braced for violence whoever wins the most votes.