The billionaire businessman Andrej Babiš is in line for a big win in parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic, projections have shown.

With voting taking place over Friday and Saturday, Babiš’s ANO party, which has vowed to cut taxes, increase investments and curb immigration, is expected to win 29.7% of the vote, more than twice that of any other party.

It would be the first group to break a quarter of a century of dominance by two mainstream centre-right and centre-left parties, highlighting a shifting political landscape in Europe where an influx of refugees has given rise to protest groups.

At 7.2%, the ruling Social Democrats, led by the prime minister, Bohuslav Sobotka, are on course for their worst result since the country separated from Slovakia in 1993.

The Czech economy has experienced rapid growth, a balanced budget and the lowest unemployment in the European Union in the last four years, but the Social Democrats, who led a government with ANO and another partner, have not been able to capitalise.

Instead, ANO and other anti-establishment groups took advantage of voters’ desire for change by promising to fight corruption, stop deeper EU integration and prevent the country from accepting quotas for taking in refugees imposed by Brussels.

Babiš himself has promised to bring a businessman’s touch to government, which has resonated with voters.

Andrej Babiš casts his ballot in Prague on Friday. Photograph: Martin Divisek/EPA

Result projections, modelled on actual voting results with 58.6% of voting stations reporting, showed the centre-right Civic Democrats to be the second strongest party, with 11.4% of the vote. Eight parties are expected to win seats.

Apart from caretaker administrations, the Social Democrats or the Civic Democrats have led every Czech cabinet since Czechoslovakia split.

Babiš has taken a tough line against further EU integration, accepting refugees and adoption of the euro, raising the prospect he may join Hungary and Poland on a collision course with the bloc.



His swipes at Brussels play well with Eurosceptic Czechs. However, Babiš also praises EU membership and does not share the relatively illiberal ideology of the governments in Budapest and Warsaw.

Babiš has maintained his popularity despite accusations of conflicts of interest related to his food, chemical and agriculture business holdings, which were placed in a trust earlier this year.

Concerns about Babiš mainly centre on his strong managerial style and vast business and media influence that would be amplified by him becoming prime minister.

He also faces police charges that he illegally received a €2m (£1.8m) EU subsidy when he ran his business empire, before entering politics. He has denied any wrongdoing, saying the charges were a plot by opponents to push him out of politics.

“The more people organise campaigns against him the more it helps him among others,” said one ANO voter, Alena Chlostova.

ANO will have to form a coalition, with talks likely to take weeks. If negotiations with mainstream parties fail, there is the possibility ANO may form a cabinet with backing from the Communists and the far-right, anti-EU Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party.

The Czech president, Miloš Zeman, has said he will allow a month for negotiations before calling a new parliament, the trigger for the current administration to depart. By custom, he asks someone to lead talks before appointing a prime minister.