Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic ( -7.5 ) – O/U: 197.5

It’s been a while since everyone has been goo-goo-ga-ga over Nikola Vucevic, but I think they should be feeling that type of way once again. This is a matchup that he should dominate from start to finish as Philly ranks among the worst in the NBA defending opposing centers. Before Monday’s game in Atlanta, Vucevic had three straight games of 41+ fantasy points.

Victor Oladipo is out again tonight, so it’ll be Elfrid Payton back at the point guard spot. Payton played 27 minutes in the blowout loss to Atlanta, finishing a bit under the 5x value line. For a discounted price, Payton isn’t a bad option going against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Tobias Harris and Evan Fournier seem like forgotten men, yet both are getting quality minutes at a very affordable price.

Orlando head coach Scott Skiles also hinted that he may change his starting lineup, which could mean Aaron Gordon would have his name announced at the beginning of the game. For the moment, it’s speculation, but keep on ear out for that news today.

It’s a bit more cut and dry with the Sixers; they have actually looked like an actual NBA-level basketball team lately, and that is largely in part to the return of Ish Smith. His price has risen above $7000 on FanDuel, so with only a decent matchup and there being 10 other games to choose from, I’m going elsewhere. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor finally learned to play nice with each other, and that’s another reason this team has continued to look respectable. If I had to choose between the two, it’s Noel because of the more favorable matchup.

Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards ( -2 ) – O/U: 199

These two played in the same venue a little more than two weeks ago, and it was Miami that came out strong and thoroughly dominated the contest. However, Miami is missing their top two point guards and Dwayne Wade might take the night off, so don’t expect a repeat performance tonight.

Tyler Johnson dropped a major dud on Tuesday against Milwaukee, but don’t sleep on the kid when he has more than 30 minutes staring him in the face tonight in an up-tempo game. This should have him hitting 5x value, and in the four games prior to Tuesday, TJ averaged 24 FD points.

If the above is true, and the majority of the Heat backcourt are out, then Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside will see their usage rate go through the roof. It was Whiteside who balled outrageous on Tuesday with 23 points and 18 rebounds; Bosh finished with 23 points as well, but only five rebounds. Both of them had great games in the last contest against Washington, but I think it’s Bosh that has the better game tonight. Whiteside could lose some minutes because of the faster pace, whereas Bosh is usually on the court unless it’s a major blowout.

John Wall will be low-owned for sure, and that’ll have a lot to do Miami having more red on their DvP chart than a murder scene. Honestly, a murder scene is exactly what it’s looked like for opposing teams going against the Heat this year. But as I said earlier, tonight’s lineup won’t resemble the same team as usual. Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley and Garrett Temple are decent options tonight if you need some more Wiz in your life.

Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors ( -3 ) – O/U: 201

A couple of my Atlantic Division cohorts do battle above the border, and sure, there’s some fantasy value here. Even if every word I write makes me want to grit my teeth…

I think the point guard battle between Isaiah Thomas and Kyle Lowry will be highly overlooked tonight. My good friend and podcast-mate, Keith Hall (watch the podcast today at 4pm EST – shameless plug, no shame round here), has this DFS theory that having point guards go against each other is beautiful thing for your roster. I’ll leave all the possibilities open to blow your mind, but let me just reiterate that this is a divisional matchup with a tight spread and fairly decent total.

You know DeMar DeRozan wants to get in on all of this as well. Take a look at his career FanDuel totals against the Celtics, especially the last six times he’s faced them.



Cleveland Cavaliers ( -12.5 ) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 198

Muy vey! This is the feeling you get when you’re a fan of one of the worst teams in the league and the A-team who just got thumped by 34 comes rolling into town. Brooklyn doesn’t have much of a chance tonight, and I don’t think the Cavs will rest some of their guys. If you want the narrative angle, Kyrie Irving is from Jersey (I know they play in Brooklyn now, thanks for the reminder) but it is right across the river; family and friends will be in the building, so don’t be disappointment, Kyrie. Especially in the easiest matchup of your life! Also, I’m not a fan of spending up on LeBron James in a game that should be out of reach quickly.

For the Nets, I do like the Thad Young matchup against Kevin Love. Thad is a cheaper version of Draymond Green and we all saw the troubles Love had against him on Monday night. If you’re into history, Thad had 16 points and 12 rebounds against the Cavs back in November. Donald Sloan has been fairly efficient at his cheap price so give a look at him as well.

Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks ( -2.5 ) – O/U: 187

Well, in addition to whiffing on every single claim I made on Monday afternoon, this whole Jazz thing happened:

“This looks like a game to avoid all together on the Utah side with their slowpoke pace, an unusual weekday afternoon start time and a low total for the game overall. For Utah, this will seem like a noon start time with their internal clocks two hours behind the east coast. Look at that, you even get some Dr. Phil in today’s basketball lesson.”

Look, if you’re going to be in this business, you have to laugh at yourself sometimes. I sure as hell wasn’t the only guy in the industry who thought Utah would score about 70 points in a game that had a total of 188 points. OK, enough about me and my wrongs…

You’re going to laugh, but I really don’t like anyone from Utah again. 11-games slates make me want the best offensive players in the game, and sorry Mormons, they’re just not on your team.

For the Knicks, it’s slim pickings as well. If Kristaps Porzingis is out for this game, then Carmelo Anthony can channel his pre-Zinga days to when he was the only legit scoring threat and he took 40 shots per game. Granted, it’s a tough spot to be paying this much for someone going against a great defense, but the minutes will be there. As long as his jumper is on, it’ll be a solid night. I can’t see him driving to the lane too often with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint area.

Lastly, if Porzingis is in fact out, both Kevin Seraphin and Lance Thomas are also listed as questionable. Feast your eyes upon Kyle O’Quinn. Don’t look at the game log, it’s ugly. When given the opportunity, the New York native has had some very productive minutes for the Knicks. The emergence of Porzingis has set his minutes back big time, but when he was struggling at times this season, O’Quinn came in and performed admirably.

Detroit Pistons @ Houston Rockets ( -3 ) – O/U: 206

These two faced off on November 30th and Detroit put it on Houston. The 116-105 final score isn’t as indicative as the ass kicking was, and in this scenario, you would think Houston would come out firing on all cylinders to avenge that earlier loss. Vegas has only dubbed the Rockets as three-point favorites and with a couple things considered, that is a very telling sign that Pistons could come away with the victory.

This is not the same Detroit team that we have come to know over the last few seasons. They’re playing great team basketball and go up against the 27th worst defense in terms of giving up fantasy points as a whole. If you want to keep it simple and look at the DvP, then Marcus Morris and Irsan Ilyasova would make for great value plays, as Houston is 28th against SF and dead last against PF. Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond make for decent plays as well.

For H-Town, I think it’s best to keep it simple with James Harden and Dwight Howard. Detroit’s defense is improving with each game that passes, and I think it’ll be the big guns that have to do the heavy lifting for them tonight.

Golden State Warriors ( -6.5 ) @ Chicago Bulls – O/U: 214.5

In the last week or so, I’ve noticed that Vegas is making the lines on Warriors’ games seem like the other team has a fighting chance. Most of the season, we have seen them as healthy double-digit favorites, but before Monday’s game against Cleveland they were 0-3-1 against the spread in that four-game stretch. Obviously, there was added motivation for the Cavs game, but I think the Bulls come out with a little some-some for the Warriors tonight.

Now I didn’t say Chicago would come out victorious, and you know we always have plenty of guys to choose from the Golden State roster. Stephen Curry has a phenomenal matchup going against Derrick Rose, and I have the reigning MVP rated a smudge higher than Westbrook overall tonight. Klay Thompson, Curry’s running mate in the backcourt, will benefit greatly if Curry ends up being guarded by Jimmy Butler.

Draymond Green is…wait for it, Draymond Green. During Monday’s TNT telecast of the Golden State-Cleveland game, Chris Webber said that Stephen Curry is the MVP of the league, but Dray is the MVP of the Warriors. What? Hey, it actually makes sense. Dray does everything very well, but at the top of that list is the fact that he can grab a rebound and be at the other end of the court in about two seconds, which jump starts more than 50% of this offense. Play on, playa.

D-Rose usually only shines in these matchups against marquee point guards (weird, I know). However, on a massive slate, there’s no reason to take a huge chance like that. Butler is a so-so play for me; I don’t think he’ll be terrible, but I also don’t think he’s worth the steep price. When these two got together in November, Rose was out of the lineup and that’s why Butler’s numbers looked so good in that game. Pau Gasol is a fine play pretty much every night, but I am more interested in some low cost options for Chicago.

Nikola Mirotic, Bobby Portis and even Doug McDermott could play a pivotal role in this game. With the total being so high, I can assure you this is going to be one of those ridiculous run-and-gun style games, and that suits these three players more than anyone else on the Chicago bench.

Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder ( -10.5 ) – O/U 207.5

The Russell Westbrook/Kevin Durant duo worked like a charm again on Tuesday, and there is really is no stopping these guys. You might be able to contain them…once in a blue moon. I do think on the back-end of a back-to-back that there’s some credence to sitting one of these guys…in fantasy, not real life. KD has been the one with the rockier injury history in the past, so it’s quite plausible that OKC elects to rest him at certain points throughout the game; Westbrook, of course, is always in play. Check out how both of them have done on the back-end of back-to-back games this season, thanks to the guys at Statmuse. Keep in mind, that 23.4 game from Russ was when he got ejected in the second quarter against Dallas.

Kemba Walker is coming off the best game of his career on Monday, and he’ll need to be just as good if his team has any shot of winning. Walker is in a bit of an awkward limbo in the pricing where it’s fairly high, but it’s also not the most expensive price out there. In order to make 5x value on FanDuel, he’ll have to hit 43 points. If you want to go even cheaper, Nicolas Batum could be in line for more of a workload, especially if Jeremy Lamb remains out. Batum has struggled a bit here in the last five games, only reaching value against New Orleans.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks ( -9 ) – O/U: 197

I’m not opposed to taking some heavy chances tonight with Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins in this game. Rubio is hit-or-miss for sure, but Wiggins is finally looking like he’s worthy of being the #1 selection last season. Wiggins hasn’t dropped a dud in eight straight games, and it looks like that streak can continue tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t a bad option, but I’m a fan of Zaza Pachulia on the defensive end, and that’s not just because Dallas in 6th in the league against opposing centers. I’m talking about the eye test, people!

Dirk Nowitzki and Raymond Felton have been ruled out for the game tonight. This means Dwight Powell will get more run, as well as Chandler Parsons, who will become the top shooting threat for the Mavs. Deron Williams should see a bump in usage and that makes for an interesting play against Rubio who’s not the greatest defender.

Sacramento Kings ( -6.5 ) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 215

Welcome to the late night hammer portion of the show. Both of these teams are in a great spot because, quite frankly, both defenses suck. There’s no one in this game that I would say is out of the question, aside from most of the bench scrubs. Please be smart with that last one, and don’t come at me with some, “Why the hell didn’t Ben McLemore go for 40 tonight?” BS.

DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo are the guys you want some exposure to from Sacramento. From LA, you’re going to want a piece of Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams. Don’t forget about Julius Randle with Larry Nance, Jr. out of the lineup.

Atlanta Hawks ( -2 ) @ Portland Trail Blazers – O/U: 208.5

Atlanta travels out west for a game with a surprisingly high total. This leads me to think that both point guards, Damian Lillard and Jeff Teague, should be line for productive nights. As for the actual flow of this game, I can see Atlanta getting off to a slow start, as this is their first game of a five-game west coast trip and that may throw them off a bit.

As for the rest of the game, I do like the main guys for Atlanta like Paul Millsap, Al Horford and Kent Bazemore. Granted, with everything I just spoke on about the west travel and whatnot, they are still going up against the Blazers and one of those guys should come through.