Feb 5, 2018

Political tensions are running high in Lebanon ahead of the anticipated legislative elections in May. The excessive and precarious pandering to voters seems to be the prelude to a post-election realignment of the political system.

Last time an election was held in Lebanon was in 2009, and the Middle East was different back then. The Syrian regime was still the major power broker in Lebanese politics, and Iranian-backed Hezbollah had just dealt in May 2008 a military blow to the Saudi-backed Future Movement. After heavily investing in the 2009 elections, Riyadh re-engaged Damascus to contain the growing Iranian influence in Lebanon. However, the United States put a brake on the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement, which resulted in the ousting of Saad Hariri’s first Cabinet in January 2011. Two months later, the Syrian uprising began in March 2011.

This time around, the dynamics have drastically changed. The Syrian regime is no longer a regional player, and the two anti- and pro-Syrian regime alliances (March 14 and March 8, respectively) have subsequently frayed. In October 2016, Iran and the United States reached a tacit deal that led to the election of President Michel Aoun and secured Hariri’s return to the premiership — a deal that did not meet the expectations of Saudi Arabia or Israel.

This external umbrella has provided Lebanon a relative stability safety net since 2014. However, Lebanese domestic politics is more nuanced and has its own complex calculations. Aoun and Hariri, who were enemies in the past decade, have been solidifying their alliance in the past two years. For parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, this alliance is reminiscent of the pre-1990 Lebanese politics when Maronite and Sunni leaders consolidated power at the expense of Shiite leaders.

These tensions are manifested in a constant power struggle. For instance, Berri wants to make the approval of the finance minister, currently under his control, a prerequisite for every major executive decision by the president and the prime minister. Aoun seeks instead to reassert the power of Christian leaders in the Lebanese system. Hariri has been projecting a neutral stance but is hoping that Aoun will gradually break his coalition with Hezbollah. In return, Hezbollah is acting impartial in the confrontation between two major allies; however, the party’s utmost priority is the unity of the Shiite alliance. The Lebanese government represents the same balance of power in the parliament, hence legislative accountability and oversight does not exist.