Now back for its sixth season, The Prospect Digest Handbook

has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Touted by some of the titans of the fantasy world for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” last season’s Prospect Digest Handbook correctly predicted the meteoric rise of Deivi Garcia, Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Brusdar Graterol, Chris Paddack, and many more! Pick up your print version hereand your eBook version here!

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1. Christian Pache, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55/60 45/55 55 70 75+

Background: In a system chock full of pleasant surprises – a 90-win parent club, Touki Toussaint’s leap forward in control, Kyle Wright’s explosive start to his career, or Austin Riley’s scorching bat, just to name few – Pache’s development of power could very well be the most important development of 2018. Signed out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic for $1.4 million in 2015, Pache entered last season with exactly zero career homeruns through his first 176 games – though, to be fair, he spent his time squaring off against significantly older competition. But Pache, a toolsy 6-foot-2, 185-pound center fielder, ended the drought near the end of April when he slugged a long ball off Lakeland Flying Tigers hurler Anthony Castro. Pache would go on to belt out eight more long balls over the next 102 games. He finished the year with an aggregate .279/.307/.410 triple-slash line between Florida and Mississippi, setting career bests in doubles (23) and homeruns (nine) to go along with six triples and seven stolen bases.

Analysis: Pache’s still more of pull-hitter when it comes to uncorking extra-base hits, but it’s a step in the right direction. And the power’s likely to continue to blossom as his lean frame approaches maturity as well. The Dominican native, despite reaching Class AA before his age-20 season, hasn’t quite put everything together successfully – yet. Instead, there are glimpses of the full package sprinkled throughout his career. At various points his eye at the plate is solid, the speed on the base paths exceptional, and – of course – the power too. But once he does put it all together – watch out. Defensively, Pache is in the running for best defender in the minor leagues, one, by the way, that could play a Gold Glove-caliber center field in the big leagues today. He’s going to be a nice complement to Ronald Acuna for the better part of a decade. In terms of ceiling think .300/.340/.450 with the aforementioned elite glove.

Ceiling: 6.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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2. Touki Toussaint, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 60 80 60 45/50 70

Background: With the club’s rebuild coming to fruition sooner than most thought, Atlanta’s farm system is still spilling over with impact talent – most of which is big league-ready. Take, for example, Touki Toussaint. The former first rounder was acquired in that laughably bad – both then and now – swap with Arizona for replacement level infielder Philip Gosselin. The real cost for the Braves’ organization: taking on Bronson Arroyo’s contract (which was quickly dealt to the Dodgers). Toussaint – simply put – finally put it all together. And it was glorious. The 16th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Toussaint chewed through the Southern League for 16 starts like Koufax through a group of Sandlot All-Stars. The 6-foot-3, 185-pound right-hander would spend the rest of the year oscillating between the International League and Atlanta – always leaving knee-buckled hitters with confused looks in his wake. Toussaint tossed 136.1 minor league innings last season, recording a whopping 163 punch outs against 53 walks en route to tallying a 2.38 ERA. As for his work in the big leagues, well, there was a lot of good – like the 32 strikeouts in 29.0 innings – but also some bad (like the 21 walks). For his minor league career, the electric right-hander is averaging 9.5 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.08 ERA in 530.0 innings of work.

Analysis: The thing about offspeed pitches, at least as far as I know, is that 80-grades never pop up on them in minor league scouting reports. Toussaint’s hellacious curveball is – unequivocally, without a smidgeon of doubt – a genuine plus-plus, 80-grade pitch. It’s the equivalent of the steep hill on a rollercoaster: big and beautiful and before you know it scares the tar out of you. The curveball alone would be enough to push him into a big league rotation. But Toussaint’s fastball, a lively low- to mid-90s offering, is a plus pitch. And his changeup, a fading mid-80s pitch, is just the third plus-weapon in his arsenal. Electric – and, really, there’s no other way to put it. Last season was the first time where Toussaint’s control didn’t limit his potential. With respect to his production in Class AA, consider the following:

Since 2006 only three 22-year-old pitchers have posted a strikeout percentage of at least 29.0% in the Southern League (min. 75 IP): Matt Moore, Mike Minor, and – of course – Touki Toussaint.

If Toussaint’s control ticks up another level there’s some Max Scherzer-lite potential here.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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3. Kyle Wright, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 65 55 50 55/60 65+

Background: The fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft after a stellar career at Pitcher U. – aka Vanderbilt University. Wright was especially effective atop the Commodores’ rotation over his final two seasons, tallying 196.0 innings with 228 strikeouts against just 63 free passes. The broad-shouldered right-hander, who signed with the club for a hefty $7 million, made a handful of brief appearances in the Gulf Coast and Florida State Leagues during his debut, posting a 18-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17.0 innings of work. Last season Atlanta pushed the polished hurler straight up to the Southern League and Wright – simply put – remained consistently good. After 20 starts with Mississippi, Wright was bounced up to Gwinnett for another handful of starts before moving on to the big league for four final appearances. Wright finished his first extended look in the minors with 133 punch outs against 51 walks to go along with a 3.46 ERA in 138.0 innings of work. As far as his work with Atlanta, he tossed another six innings, recording five strikeouts but – surprisingly – walking six.

Analysis: Here’s a little snippet from his pre-draft analysis from two years ago:

“Wright should settle in as a nice little mid-rotation caliber arm – and one that could potentially move quickly. If everything clicks for him, he could peak as a #2.”

A little more than a year after being drafted Wright was toeing a rubber for the Braves and looks to be a big part of the club’s plans in 2019. Wright shows a standard four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and a changeup. Wright’s heater, a plus-offering, sits in the 93- to 95-mph range with the ability to reach back for a little more when needed. His curveball trails only teammate Touki Toussaint’s as tops in the organization and he’s not afraid to bounce it to get hitters to chase. His slider, a mid-80s weapon, adds a third above-average pitch. The changeup settles in comfortably as the fourth option.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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4. Bryse Wilson, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 70 55/60 50 55/60 65

Background: Taken out of the fourth round of the 2016 draft and handed a hefty $1.2 million, Wilson, who was signed by scout Billy Best, lived in the shadows of his more highly touted pitching counterparts for the first two seasons of his career. But Wilson, a barrel-chested right-hander, made stops at four separate levels during his stellar breakout campaign in 2018. A native of Hillsborough, North Carolina, Wilson began the year with a handful of starts in High Class A and capped it off by bouncing between Gwinnett and Atlanta over the final two months of the season. In total, the 6-foot-1, 225-pound righty tossed 125.2 minor league innings, fanning an impressive 143 against just 36 walks to go along with a 3.44 ERA. He made another three appearances with the Braves, tossing seven innings with a six-to-six strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Analysis: Explosive. Electric. Wilson’s fastball is a like a punch to the jaw from a heavyweight champion boxer. There was one particular start in mid-August were the Orange High School product could have told the Louisville Bats what was coming and they still wouldn’t have touched it. Wilson complements the mid- to upper-90s offering with a plus, mid-80s slider and a workable, though improving changeup. He commands his fastball exceptionally well and loves to elevate it to get hitters to chase. With respect to his work in Class AA last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old arms to fan at least 26% of the hitters they faced in the Southern League (min. 75 IP): Yovani Gallardo, Taijuan Walker, and – of course – Bryse Wilson.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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5. Ian Anderson, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 65 60 55 45/50 65

Background: Drafted behind Mickey Moniak and Nick Senzel as the third overall pick three years ago. Anderson’s just another one of the club’s quick-moving, high-ceiling hurlers. Standing a lean 6-foot-3 and 170 pounds, Anderson opened last season up with the Fire Frogs in the Florida State League on a bit of sour note: he failed to make it out of the fourth inning against the Fort Myers Miracle and mostly struggled through his first four starts of the season. After that, though, the Shenendehowa High School product navigated the waters of the High Class A league with relative ease: he posted a 100-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his final 86.0 innings in the FSL. The front office brass bumped him up to the Southern League for four final starts. Anderson, by the way, was practically unhittable in his last two games, throwing 12.2 innings with 19 strikeouts, three walks, five hits surrendered, and no runs. He finished the year with 149 strikeouts and only 49 walks in a career best 119.1 innings. One more note: he posted a 1.88 ERA over his final 105.1 innings.

Analysis: Anderson’s arsenal features two plus pitches – an electric mid-90s fastball with added oomph late and a hard, sharp 12-6 curveball – and one above-average offering (a firm, diving changeup). Anderson’s control wavered at various points in the Sally two years ago, but after his control-plagued start to last season he walked 9.1% of the hitters he faced over his last 105.1 innings of work. Anderson has clean, repeatable mechanics so his control/command should continue its upward trend. At his peak he looks like another #2/#3-type arm. With respect to his work in High Class A, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old arms to post a strikeout percentage of at least 27.5% and a walk percentage between 8% and 11% in the Florida State League (min. 75 IP): Jake McGee, a perennial Top 100 prospect for years, and – of course – Ian Anderson.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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6. Mike Soroka, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 55 55 55 60 60+

Background: The Atlanta Braves hitched their rebuilding wagon on the hopes of young arms – a risky proposition. But, for the most part, the organization’s been able to navigate the waters injury-free. Soroka, though, is one the few casualties. The 28th overall pick in 2015, Soroka leapfrogged his way through the minors before making his big league debut last season, becoming the youngest pitcher in MLB. The deceptively big 6-foot-5, 225-pound right-hander was limited to just six minor league starts and five big league starts before a strained shoulder/inflammation prematurely shut him down in mid-June. Soroka tossed 25.2 minor league innings, fanning 21 and walking just seven. As for his big league work, he recorded an impressive 34-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.2 innings.

Analysis: The baby-faced right-hander shows three above-average big league offerings: a low-90s fastball that can touch 94 and spots it with pinpoint accuracy, a tight slider that he’ll vary the break on, and a changeup thrown with good deception. Prior to the shoulder woes Soroka looked like the surest best among all Braves pitching prospect to reach his potential. The Canadian-born right-hander, though, was reportedly throwing off a mound by year’s end. Soroka doesn’t possess the electric arsenal that his organizational counterparts do, but his pitchability is off the charts. If the shoulder doesn’t prove to be problematic moving forward Soroka looks like a reliable #2/#3-type arm for years to come.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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7. Austin Riley, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45 55 30 50 60

Background: In last year’s Prospect Digest Handbook I wrote how Riley’s production last season put him in some elite company, joining the likes of Gary Sanchez, Javier Baez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Addison Russell. Well, that proved to be just a harbinger of things to come. After torching the Southern League in the second half of 2017, Atlanta sent the precocious third baseman back down to Class AA for some additional fine-tuning. And he picked up right where he left off. In 27 games with the Mississippi Braves the 6-foot-3, 220-pound slugger batted .333/.394/.677 with 19 extra-base hits. He continued to impress upon his promotion up to the International League – despite missing a month due to a knee injury. Riley finished the year with an aggregate .294/.360/.522 with 30 doubles, three triples, and 19 homeruns in only 108 games (including a six-game rehab assignment in the Gulf Coast League).

Analysis: Let’s just jump right into it. Consider the following:

Since 2006 here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ total between 122 and 132 in the International League (min. 300 PA): Ryan Sweeney and – of course – Austin Riley. Sweeney, by the way, was once viewed as a Top 100 prospect and was essentially a league average MLB bat over parts of nine seasons.

Obviously, it’s a far less impressive study than the aforementioned one in the 2018 Handbook. But Riley’s a vastly different hitter than Sweeney. The young third baseman has significantly better pop at the expense of higher swing-and-miss tendencies. While Riley’s made strides in cutting down his K-rate in previous years, there’s still some concern as to how big league pitchers will exploit a young hitter who swings-and-misses in nearly 30% of his plate appearances. Throw in some pull-heavy results and Riley still has some hurdles to overcome. Riley looks like a .250/.320/.450-type hitter with a solid-average glove at third base at maturity.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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8. Huascar Ynoa, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 80 60 60 40/45 65

Background: Veteran southpaw Jamie Garcia was on the move a number of times between December 2016 and August 2017. Atlanta acquired the savvy southpaw from St. Louis in exchange from Luke Dykstra, Chris Ellis, and John Gant. Less than eight months later the Braves turned around flipped the enigmatic veteran to Minnesota – along with Anthony Recker – for hard-throwing youngster Huascar Ynoa. (Note: Minnesota would eventually flip Garcia to the Yankees a week later, by the way.) The 6-foot-3, 175-pound right-hander spent time with the Rome Braves and Florida Fire Flies last season. He tossed a career best 116.1 innings, recording 131 strikeouts against 54 walks. He finished the year with a 4.56 ERA.

Analysis: I’m a big, big believer of Ynoa’s potential as a starting pitcher. So much so, in fact, that I can’t fathom the thought process of the Twins’ front office wilingness to include him in a deal for a non-descript veteran starting pitcher. Ynoa’s arsenal – like a lot of the other high ceiling arms in the Braves’ system – is, quite simply, harnessed lightning. His fastball is explosive and sits in the upper 90s. His slider is the stuff of nightmares. And his changeup features phenomenal fade with incredible arm speed. The two knocks on the Dominican-born hurler are: #1 he’s a max effort guy, which may persuade the Braves to push him into a bullpen role and #2 his control. Ynoa’s ability to throw strikes took some baby steps forward last season, so the trend needs to continue. But he’s going to be a light’s out arm at the big league level – regardless of whether he’s in the rotation or bullpen.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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9. William Contreras, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 50/55 30 50 60

Background: Signed out of Venezuela a couple years ago. The Braves’ front office brass has taken the slow-and-steady approach to Contreras’ development. The younger brother to Cubs All-Star backstop Willson Contreras, William – finally – made the leap up to the South Atlantic League at the start of last season. And, boy, was he ready. In 82 games with the Rome Braves, the 6-foot, 180-pound catcher batted an impressive .293/.360/.463 with 17 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns. Contreras’ production stumbled a bit upon his promotion up to High Class A; he cobbled together a .253/.300/.337 triple-slash line. He finished the year with an aggregate .285/.347/.436 with career highs in doubles (24) and homeruns (11). His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 25%.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote in last year’s Handbook when I pegged Contreras the Younger as a potential breakout candidate heading into the 2018 season:

“The younger brother to Cubs’ backstop Willson Contreras. William is – quietly – turning into an impressive little prospect in his own right. One, by the way, who is primed for a breakout as he moves into Low Class A as a 20-year-old in 2018. Every single offensive skill has been trending upward over the past couple of years – especially the plate discipline and power. Plus, he plays solid defense. I currently have Contreras the Younger ranked as the seventh best catching prospect – though that could quickly change.”

The biggest develop for the lean catcher was the surge in pop last season and that’s only the beginning. At full maturity Contreras’ power has the potential to blossom into a perennial 20-homer threat at the big league level. Throw in an above-average hit tool, a good glove behind the dish, and his willingness to take balls the other way; and there’s a lot to like about the young Venezuelan. With respect to his work in Low Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Southern League (min. 300 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+ total; a walk percentage between 7.5% and 10.0%; and a strikeout percentage between 17% and 22%. Those two hitters: All-Star outfielder Dexter Fowler, owner of a 108 wRC+, and – of course – William Contreras.

The future looks incredibly bright for one of the game’s best catching prospects.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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10. Drew Waters, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 55 55 50 60

Background: A second round pick out of Etowah High School two years ago, Waters, who signed for a slightly below-slot deal worth $1.5 million, feasted off the South Atlantic League pitching at the start of 2018. The 6-foot-2, 183-pound center fielder batted a healthy .303/.353/.513 to go along with a whopping 32 doubles, six triples, and nine homeruns – in only 84 games. The Georgia-native’s production took a noticeable dip when the club promoted him up to High Class A in the second half of the year. For his young career Waters is hitting an aggregate .289/.349/.462 with 53 doubles, 11 triples, and 13 homeruns in 164 games.

Analysis: A toolsy switch-hitter that’s flirted with some concerning strikeout rates at various points in his young career. Waters is likely to grow into above-average power to go along with his plus speed. Even if the hit tool remains average – which it likely will – Waters has a shot to be a nice little league average center fielder in the coming years. With respect to his work in the Sally last season, consider the following:

Waters has a chance to develop into a perennial 20/20 threat down the line as well.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.