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B/R's Projection: 52-30

ESPN's Projection: 54-28

The Boston Celtics' capacity to deliver an encore to last season's Eastern Conference-leading 53-win campaign was always strained. Even before the Kyrie Irving trade, even after they signed Gordon Hayward, even when it became clear poaching the Jazz's best player would include minimal collateral damage, one uncomfortable question loomed: Would they get another magical season from Isaiah Thomas?

Boston's floor general rated as a top-20 player in 2015-16 and top-15 contributor for 2016-17, according to NBA Math's Total Points Added (TPA). Expecting regression from that pinnacle was not unfair—especially with his hip injury factored into the mix. As Vice Sports' Michael Pina wrote:

"Thomas can shoot and pass as well as most, but his continuous aggression attacking the rim is where he leaves a vast majority of his colleagues in the dust. (Thomas led the league in drives and points per game on drives last season, per SportVU.) If his hip injury, mixed with age-related decline, strips that usefulness away, Thomas is reduced to an aging, super-expensive version of Kemba Walker—a quality piece, sure, but not anyone who moves the needle when positioned as the primary option on a playoff team. Thomas's 2016-17 campaign was incredible, but it's worth wondering how sustainable it is."

Subbing in Irving for Thomas helps the Celtics by way of availability. He is healthy, while Thomas expressed doubt to ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski that he'd be ready to start the season. But the inbound value must still stack up to last year's marks, and it just doesn't.

Throw Jae Crowder into the scope, and the Celtics' TPA differential for this trade is a minus-218.69. And that doesn't include what Ante Zizic adds as a rookie (or, in later seasons, who the Cleveland Cavaliers land with the Brooklyn Nets' 2018 first-round pick).

Signing Hayward alone (plus-201.66) doesn't make up the gap. It would hardly matter if it did. The Celtics squandered individual value by flipping Avery Bradley for Marcus Morris and letting Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk walk out the door.

These numbers are not telltale of everything. Hayward, Irving and Morris could all fair better under head coach Brad Stevens. Jaylen Brown and Terry "Second-Longest-Tenured Celtic" Rozier might take a noticeable leap. Semi Ojeleye and Jayson Tatum may do damage as rookies. Team president Danny Ainge could pull the trigger on another blockbuster.

Could. Might. May. Whatever the view on the Celtics' long-term outlook, they compromised their immediate one. More than 63 percent of last season's minutes are gone, including five of their seven most used players—roster turnover that would have rendered them among the three least-stable squads in 2016-17.

Big names are en route, and the East remains a joke. But these total flip-flops take time. The Celtics may be immediate challengers to the LeBron James-led Cavaliers. They may also labor through a year's worth of learning curves and growing pains and champagne hardship. Either way, given their sweeping, wholesale changes, they'll be lucky to match last year's finish.

Brace Yourself For: 47-35