Clinton’s ties with the candidates he’s seeking to boost run deep. Clinton tries to save Ark. from GOP

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Bill Clinton is coming home, a place that’s increasingly unrecognizable from the place he grew up as a politician.

In his most intense political swing of the midterm election yet, the campaigner-in-chief will test whether his legacy and powers of persuasion can keep this state’s rightward drift at bay one more time. He’s out to spare some of his oldest friends in politics: his onetime driver Mike Ross, now running for governor; endangered Sen. Mark Pryor; and a pair of House hopefuls with whom Clinton goes back decades.


Interviews with about a dozen Arkansas political hands on the eve of Clinton’s trip — personal friends, professional allies and a few opponents — suggest the ex-president can raise money and perhaps spur some voters to the polls. As far as campaign surrogates go, there’s no one better. Yet even the most optimistic Democrats say that may not be enough.

“He’s well-liked, well-loved, he could win any election he ran for,” said Sheila Bronfman, who has long been active in Arkansas Democratic politics: Bill Clinton even officiated at her wedding. “That doesn’t always translate.”

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But Clinton will certainly try: He has four rallies in two days scheduled across the state, at universities in Conway, Jonesboro and Fayetteville, plus a stop in the northwest city of Rogers.

“Arkansas is personal, it’s special,” said Mack McLarty, Clinton’s former chief of staff and counselor, and a lifelong friend. “He will make a broader case of why these candidates, and he knows them all, are generally good, centrist Democrats. He’ll be able to make the case why their approach to governing is just better for Arkansas.”

David Pryor, a former senator and governor, whose son is locked in one of the most hotly contested Senate races of the year against Republican Tom Cotton, agreed: “He never forgets Arkansas, nor does he ever forget his friends here in the state.”

Clinton’s ties with the candidates he’s seeking to boost run deep.

Mark Pryor has known Bill Clinton since the 1970s, when Pryor’s father was serving as governor, and the two have talked politics over burgers when Clinton has returned to the Razorback State over the years. Ross, the underdog in his contest, got his start in politics as Clinton’s driver during the 1982 gubernatorial race. James Lee Witt, waging an uphill bid in Arkansas’ 4th Congressional District, was Clinton’s Federal Emergency Management Agency director during his two terms in the White House. And Patrick Henry Hays, running a competitive race in the state’s 2nd District, has crossed political paths with Clinton for decades.

“[His visit is] just getting more people talking about the race,” Witt said. “People are telling us it’s exciting to see President Clinton down here doing a fundraiser for you. He does create a lot of excitement, and I’m hoping that excitement will help turn the voters out.”

Rallying the base may not be enough, the thinking goes among Arkansas Democrats — but if anyone can meaningfully do it, it’s Clinton. A spokesman for the former president declined to comment.

“No one can better turn out the Clinton base than Clinton,” said Skip Rutherford, dean of the Clinton School of Public Service at the University of Arkansas. “In an election where one, two, three percentage points in turning out base voters [makes the difference], that’s what Clinton can do. I think among his constituency, traditional Democratic constituency voters, he is still very, very strong.”

Jay Barth, a professor at Hendrix College who is involved in statewide polling, said Clinton likely can’t move undecided voters, and that for turnout to make a difference, there would have to be substantial and unusual interest from Democrats in a non-presidential-year election.

“In terms of turnout, that’s the gift he can provide state Democrats, and clearly that’s what they need most right now,” he said. “The races are close, but Republicans have an edge in most of them. Assuming [they] have normal turnout, the Democrats really need exceptionally high turnout to pull it off in those races.”

“No one knows how he will move the dial, move the needle, but surely it won’t hurt to be seen with Bill Clinton,” David Pryor said.

The elder Pryor, who has known Clinton since the latter was 19, said the ex-president maintains a deep interest in the political intricacies of the state. “Bill Clinton could do you a poll of Arkansas much more accurately than the polls being done now; he has a great feel for the political pulse,” he said.

Clinton maintains significant cachet in Arkansas in part because he and, to a lesser extent, his wife — Hillary Clinton, a possible 2016 Democratic front-runner — remain highly engaged, according to people plugged into Arkansas politics. He was born in Hope, Arkansas, and served as governor from 1978-80 and then again from 1982-92.

Robert McLarty, a Democratic strategist whose family has worked with the Clintons for years, said Bill Clinton still comes back for high school reunions, and the famously tardy pol is sometimes late to events because he’s watching the University of Arkansas Razorbacks.

The family name is everywhere: There’s the Clinton presidential library, the Clinton School of Public Service, the Hillary Rodham Clinton Children’s Library and Learning Center, the Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport, and President Clinton Avenue, to name a few. But tying that beloved brand to the Democrats on the ballot this year may not be enough to counteract GOP efforts to link them to the current national Democratic Party, Arkansas activists fret.

“If it rains on Election Day, probably the Democrats are going to be in trouble,” said Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola, a Democrat who has known the Clintons since before they got married.

Arkansas is one of the last states in the South to turn red, but the 2010 elections — fueled by the rise of the tea party and deep opposition to the administration and its health care law — moved the state toward the GOP column, wiping out Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, flipping two House seats from blue to red and giving Republicans gains in the state legislature.

Stodola said in an interview that everything has to go right for Democrats in November, and, even then, the races will be tight. The contests, particularly the Senate race, have drawn national attention and massive amounts of money from both sides of the aisle. Clinton has personally participated in fundraisers for several of the Democrats on the ballot.

“Clearly, he’s got the ability to ask people to reach down again and give what they can,” said Stodola, who served as scheduling coordinator for Clinton’s failed 1974 House bid and has stayed in touch ever since. “Obviously he’s going to be able to talk with passion to those people really committed to making sure the get-out-the-vote effort is maximized as much as possible. Can he do that? He’s done it before; I’m fully confident he can do it again. Is it going to be enough? We’ll see.”

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a Republican Arkansas strategist who is advising Cotton, said Clinton maintains deep reservoirs of respect and admiration in Arkansas — but that doesn’t extend to the candidates for whom he’s stumping.

“He’s still extremely popular in the state,” said Huckabee Sanders (she is the daughter of former Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee). “People will come out to hear him. In terms of being able to translate that into votes, I don’t see him being able to sway a large number of people.”

Ross is betting that Clinton can help him with turnout. He is running against Asa Hutchinson, who as a congressman in the 1990s was a prosecutor in Clinton’s impeachment trial. (That’s something Democrats here have never forgiven. At the prospect of a Gov. Hutchinson, the activist Bronfman shuddered, “God forbid.”)

“When he talks, people listen,” Ross said of Clinton. “We’re excited about having the president doing rallies with me all over Arkansas. He’s going to be an important part of our turnout operation.”

The RealClearPolitics average of polls for that race, going back to August, shows Hutchinson with a roughly 6-point lead.

Ross, however, notes that in 2000, when he ran for Congress, he was considered the underdog — and then Clinton showed up.

“Four weeks out, everyone said I couldn’t win,” he said. “I kept working. President Clinton came in and did some rallies with me. I went on to spend 12 years in Congress.”