The Threat

Heavy Rockets

North Korea has a variety of rockets mounted on trucks, mainly adapted from Russian and Chinese designs. These are direct descendants of the Katyusha or "Stalin Organ" rockets of WWII.

They also developed some new rockets of their own. These are large caliber, 240mm (9.4 inch), and have a range estimated to be at least 25 miles. Each 17-ft-long rocket has a warhead containing about 100 pounds of explosives, though there are reportedly also chemical and incendiary versions. The launchers, which have also been exported Iran, are mounted on a local version of an Isuzu 6x6 truck.

There are two versions, the M1985 with 12 rockets and the M1991 with 22 rockets. North Korea is believed to possess at least 200 of the launch vehicles.

Long-range artillery

The 170mm (6.7") self-propelled gun, designated M1978 or M1987 is also an NK special, thought to have been derived from 1950's Russian coastal guns. The long-barreled weapon is mounted on a tank chassis, and can fire a rocket-assisted shell out to forty miles. When they were introduced in the 1978 they were claimed to have the longest range of any artillery piece in the world. The later version, first seen by Western analysts in 1987 and therefore called the M1987, carries 12 rounds of ammunition on board. The gun is externally mounted, leaving the crew exposed. The North Koreans exported these to Iran, where they saw use during the Iran-Iraq war; like the 240mm rocket launcher, they guns are made by North Korea's Third Machine Industry Bureau.

Bunkers

The North Korean military has long understood that fortified bunkers are the key to survival in the face of superior enemy air power. There are thousands of hardened underground bunkers close to the front line, and North Korean artillery will carry out "shoot and scoot" attacks, emerging briefly to fire and withdrawing rapidly. According to a RAND study, a multiple rocket launcher can be back under cover within 75 seconds of firing, according to a study by the Rand corporation (pdf).

Chemical and Biological Weapons

It's unclear the quantity and kind of chemical weapons that North Korea has, ready for use, but reports from the Federation of American Scientists and others suggest known quantities of anthrax, mustard gas, sarin, botulism and phosgene. The threat of bombarding civilians with gas weapons, as we reported in 2007 is perhaps the biggest threat that could come out of North Korea—one that is more likely than a nuclear weapon.

Countering the threat

Faster Acting Kill Chain

The time and clearance needed to attack targets is called the kill chain. The shorter the chain, the quicker the reaction and the better a comamnd and control system is at hitting moving targets, like mobile missile batteries. The Counter Multiple Rocket Launcher Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration, completed in 1998, showed how integrated command and control systems could cut the time taken to hit fleeting targets from 20 minutes to just 4. Using sensors carried by unmanned aircraft, it was specifically intended to target North Korean 170mm artillery and 240mm rocket launchers. U.S. forces in Korea field upgraded elements of this system now.

Bunker busting missiles

ATACMS-P is a penetrating version of a large, ground-launched rocket used by the Army. Fired from the Multiple Launch Rocket System vehicle, each rocket has a range of over a hundred miles. A special bunker-buster warhead allows them to burrow before exploding, destroying underground targets. The Pentagon cancelled the development of these weapons, but functional missiles left over from testing were transferred to U.S. forces in South Korea in 2004.

Firefinder

The Firefinder radar is a mobile radar system that can spot incoming shells and rockets. Carried by a Humvee, it can pinpoint the launch site and process up to twenty targets a minute. There is also a larger, truck-mounted version; both can calculate the location of a launch site before the projectile lands. This enables enemy launchers to be targeted before they have a chance to take cover.

Smart artillery

Firing at a fleeting target does not give much opportunity to fire several rounds and adjust the aim point. But the new 155mm Excalibur artillery round gives a much greater chance of a hit with the first round with the aid of GPS guidance. It has a "circular error probable" of 66 feet, making it lethally accurate against soft vehicles like rocket launchers and the exposed crews of artillery. Excalibur can be fired from standard 155mm guns, and has seen use in Iraq

The Bottom Line

Technology can help prevent the North Koreans from getting in a second shot. But there is not yet any solution to the thousands of shells and rockets they could launch with the first salvo on Seoul, and that remains one of the biggest concerns in an escalating conflict.

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