The bounce-back happened last week with my picks. I was good both against the spread and straight up.

Thanksgiving wasn't good to me, but the rest of the weekend was a nice rally after a slow start.

By the way, picking the Detroit Lions to beat the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving Day was the right call. The late pass that went for an interception ruined the Lions' chances to win and cover. I still like the pick – even if it was a loser (watch Bears-Giants and all Sunday's games on fuboTV, try it for free, and stream all the CBS games on CBS All Access).

I have another Thursday upset for you here. I think the Cowboys win outright against the Saints this week.

Yes, outright.

Call me crazy to go against the best team in the league, but I think the Dallas defense will get after Drew Brees in this one – and he isn't the same player on the road as he is at home.

Let's hope that upset special is the start to a good week.

New Orleans (-7.5) at Dallas

The Cowboys are playing well and lead the division after three straight victories. But the Saints are the best team in the league right now. Even so, the Dallas defense is good and can match up with that explosive offense. They will slow the Saints and run the ball to keep Drew Brees off the field. Cowboys win in an upset.

Pick: Cowboys 24, Saints 21

Result: Cowboys 13, Saints 10

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Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

The Panthers have lost three straight games, while the Bucs are playing out the string. Carolina's defense has been a major issue the past three weeks, so look for a lot of points here from both teams. The Panthers will get back on track and win a high-scoring game.

Pick: Panthers 35, Bucs 30

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

The Chargers will be without Melvin Gordon in this one, which will hurt, but I think Philip Rivers will make enough plays down the field against the Steelers secondary to put up points. Then the Chargers will turn their pass rushers loose. Chargers will win in an upset.

Pick: Chargers 26, Steelers 23

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Chicago (-4.5) at New York Giants

The Bears will likely start Chase Daniel at quarterback again in this one for the injured Mitchell Trubisky. That will hurt the offense, but this game will be about their defense. It will get all over Eli Manning here. The Bears will win a road game behind their impressive defense.

Pick: Bears 27, Giants 20

Buffalo at Miami (-5)

The Bills did some good things in beating the Jaguars last week, and Sean McDermott has squeezed a lot out of this team, but I think the Dolphins will get back on track here after a tough loss to the Colts last week. Miami's defense will get the best of Josh Allen.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Bills 16

Denver (-4.5) at Cincinnati

The Bengals will start Jeff Driskel at quarterback for the injured Andy Dalton. He will face a tough challenge against the Denver defense. He could have A.J. Green back at receiver. Even so, the Broncos are playing well and will get a tough road victory in this one.

Pick: Broncos 28, Bengals 17

Los Angeles Rams (-10) at Detroit

The Rams are coming off their bye, which they hopefully used to help improve the defense. They might have corner Aqib Talib back here, which will help. The Lions are awful on defense and their offensive line has issues that won't help against Aaron Donald. Rams big.

Pick: Rams 35, Lions 18

Arizona at Green Bay (-14)

The Cardinals are playing consecutive road games and looked lifeless against the Chargers last week. That's not a good thing going to the cold of Green Bay to play a Packers team in need of a victory. This will be an Aaron Rodgers game as he lights up the Cardinals.

Pick: Packers 37, Cardinals 13

Cleveland at Houston (-6)

The Texans have won eight straight games to make them one of the hottest teams in the league. But the Browns have also been playing well after firing coach Hue Jackson. This will come down to Baker Mayfield against Deshaun Watson and I think Watson will get the best of it.

Pick: Texans 30, Browns 20

Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville

The Colts are riding high after ripping off five straight victories, while the Jaguars have lost seven straight and fired their offensive coordinator and benched quarterback Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler. They also won't have Leonard Fournette. The Colts will continue to stay hot with Andrew Luck having a big game.

Pick: Colts 26, Jaguars 14

New York Jets at Tennessee (-7.5)

The Titans are playing on a short week after losing to the Texans Monday night. They didn't look right in that game, but the Jets are a good team to get back on the good side. Look for the Titans offense to have a good day here as they win this one easily.

Pick: Titans 30, Jets 13

Baltimore at Atlanta (-1)

The Ravens have won two straight with Lamar Jackson, who has done some good things. I can't wait to watch him on the fast turf in this one. But he is still limited some as a passer. Matt Ryan is not and that will show up here. The Falcons are much better at home, and they will get a tight victory in this one.

Pick: Falcons 34, Ravens 30

Kansas City (-15) at Oakland

The Chiefs are coming off a bye and face their rivals on the road in what should be an easy game for Kansas City. The Oakland defense isn't good and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will roll. Chiefs win it big.

Pick: Chiefs 41, Raiders 17

Minnesota at New England (-5.5)

The Patriots haven't been as prolific on offense this year, but I think this will be a game where Tom Brady throws it a lot – and has success. The Vikings are good against the run and OK against the pass. The New England defense will get after Kick Cousins, who plays behind an average line. The Patriots will take it.

Pick: Patriots 30, Vikings 23

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)

The Seahawks have impressed the past few weeks and are on the verge of a soft part of their schedule, starting with this one. Russell Wilson is playing outstanding football and that will carry over here. Look for a big game from Wilson and the Seahawks in an easy rout.

Pick: Seahawks 27, 49ers 10

Washington at Philadelphia (-6.5)

This is an enormous game in the division, with the loser in big trouble. The Redskins will have extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving, but their offense is limited with Colt McCoy. The Eagles' banged-up defense will show up here.

Pick: Eagles 23, Redskins 16