What I Know First Forecast

A powerful algorithm can accurately predict direction and strength. A more powerful algorithm can even assign a time horizon to the direction and trend; however, is it theoretically possible to forecast a bullish and bearish market for one stock for different time horizons ahead of its materialization? That is just what I Know First published for Gilead Industries (NASDAQ: GILD) in the Seeking Alpha article “Gilead Sciences’ Stock Forecast: Algorithmic And Fundamental Analysis”, published on Dec. 12, 2014. The algorithm predicted the stock will maintain its price levels for the next 3-7 days period, and then only change direction and become bearish. I Know First was bold enough to publish this line of thought.

Our analysis from the article.

“In accordance with a fundamental analysis that Gilead Sciences’ Sovaldi/Harvoni is about to face fierce competition and an algorithmic analysis indicating the stock is losing its momentum, investors should keep a close eye on the stock in the next seven days, and preferably exit their positions to invest in better opportunities.”

What actually happened?

The algorithm was accurately able to anticipate the crash, and the period of stability before it. In the 3 day period the stock went down slightly (1.1%), in the 7 days it was bullish as predicted (1.18%) and in the 13 days (as of December 23, 2014) the stock has dropped a staggering 10.94%.

Gilead is a very popular stock, and I Know First subscribers were the first to get the bearish signals with a 7 day time frame to exit their long positions.