Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA)

Big news out of Northern Virginia: Longtime Republican Rep. Frank Wolf has announced his retirement . Wolf has represented this district since 1980 and has not won with anything less than 57 percent since his initial 1982 reelection. Wolf's departure gives Democrats a great shot at a district that Wolf's personal popularity has long kept out of reach: Mitt Romney carried this district by a very narrow 50-49 margin in 2012, and Barack Obama won it 51-48 four years prior.

Democratic Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust announced his candidacy before Wolf's retirement, ensuring Democrats have a credible candidate out of the gate. Two lesser-known Democrats are also running. It remains to be seen whether other ambitious Northern Virginia Democrats will take this opportunity to jump in as well.

There are a number of potential contenders on the Republican side. Delegate and former Wolf aide Barbara Comstock, fresh off a very competitive reelection victory in November, is frequently named as a likely candidate. State Sen. Jill Holtzman Vogel is another possible contender. Another name making the rounds is Artur Davis, a former Alabama Democratic Congressman turned Republican talking head who now lives in Northern Virginia.

Wolf's decision to leave gives Democrats an excellent chance at a pickup but make no mistake: This race is far from a slam dunk. The district is still a bit to the right of the entire state: Romney's 50-49 win was slim, but better than his statewide 51-47 defeat. Daily Kos Election's preliminary calculations also reveal that Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli won 48-47 here while losing 48-45 statewide. The district did go to Democratic Lt. Gov-elect Ralph Northam, but Northam's 52-48 win was far smaller than his 55-45 statewide victory. This race is expected to be very competitive and we'll be watching it closely from now until Election Day.



Jill Holtzman Vogel has wasted little time in ruling out a bid. Artur Davis sounds more interested, saying he will "monitor the field".