WATERLOO REGION - The spread of suburbs and car-dependent lifestyles contributed to the rise of right-wing populist governments in Ontario, says Pierre Filion, a University of Waterloo urban planner.

After studying the official plans, zoning maps and development patterns in Mississauga, North York, Scarborough and Pickering from 1945 to 2010, Filion tracked the voting data from the same areas.

His research links suburban sprawl with the rise of populist governments, most recently represented by Premier Doug Ford and his Conservative government in Ontario and his late brother, Rob, a former mayor of Toronto. In his study, published in the Urban Planning Open Access Journal, he calls it a suburban-based populist reaction.

Doug Ford won the last provincial election with strong support among suburban and rural voters across southern Ontario. Meanwhile, many urban ridings in Windsor, London, Kitchener, Waterloo, Hamilton, Toronto and Ottawa voted NDP.

It was a repeat of voting patterns that sent his younger brother Rob into the mayor's office in Toronto. The younger Ford enjoyed widespread support among suburban voters, but was rejected in the city centre.

Near total dependence on cars and low-density housing surrounded by lots of green space are the central characteristics of suburbs, said Filion.

Attempts to make the suburbs more sustainable with improved transit, faster commuter trains, support for renewable energy, better pedestrian infrastructure and high-density developments with a mix of uses can be seen as attacks by outsiders who do not share suburban values, said Filion.

"My argument is that it is difficult to transform the suburb," he said.

The area around Square One Shopping Centre in Mississauga illustrates the challenge. The retail and entertainment options provided by one of Canada's biggest malls attracts a lot of vehicle traffic. And that makes it doubly difficult to expand transit and walkability as called for in planning documents for the area, Filion said.

When provincial and federal governments spend tax dollars in support of sustainable transportation and green energy, suburban voters can feel alienated, he said.

"You have to take that into consideration," said Filion.

Suburbs are now more diverse than city centres - ethnically, financially and demographically, he said, but nearly all of them share a car-dependent lifestyle.

More people live in suburbs than city centres, and suburban voters decide the results of elections. In the continuing challenge of reducing pollution that causes climate change, it is critical to gain the support of suburbanites who can otherwise scuttle initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, said Filion.

"It can lead to a backlash," he said. "There is always the possibility of the mobilization of suburbs in an us-versus-them situation."

Major themes of Rob Ford's mayoralty included ending "the war against the car," and killing "transit city." As premier, Doug Ford quickly moved to scrap wind farms, and the cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions. Ford Nation is rooted in the car culture of suburbs and the associated demands for wider highways, more parking and inexpensive gas, said Filion.

"When the planning solutions are put forward, they need to be put foward in a way that is adapted to the suburban lifestyle, to the people who are living in suburbs, and that really takes into consideration what is going to help them," said Filion.

"I don't mean to say that suburbs are totally negative to work with - this is certainly not the case - but it needs to be shown that what is going to be put in place is going to help them," he said.

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