It’s going to be hard for those who care about and work on climate change but we must dust ourselves off, because neither despair nor emigrating to New Zealand will help solve the mess Australia’s climate policy is in.

The government has been re-elected with a minimalist climate policy and a weak emissions target, despite widespread community support for action on climate change. Where to from here?

The near term looks grim. The Coalition government will feel locked into its stance against climate action, even if many smart heads in government will understand that a do-nothing approach is unwise. The Labor party might feel that its progressive stance on climate change hurt it. Tax policy might have swung the election, but climate change clearly played a role.

But climate policy will not be stuck there, even if it is a slow and hard road. There are strong international pressures, most of the Australian business community does not want the economy stuck in the past, and the states will not accept a vacuum on climate and energy policy.

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The world has started the transition to a low-carbon energy and industrial system. Australia’s best bet is to make use of our tremendous opportunities for low-carbon energy production. Hanging on for grim death to the high-carbon industries of the last century is no economic strategy. The world will not carve out a niche for Australia to continue prospering as a 20th-century style high carbon economy. Global demand for coal will fall. The future for our energy industries is in cheap renewable energy.

All that before we even consider our country’s vital interest in a strong global climate effort. We are on the frontline of climate change impacts.

Meanwhile in our public and political debate, obfuscation and scaremongering must not win out over analysis and strategy. We need a real national conversation about what role Australia can play in the low-carbon economy of the future. We need to understand where the economic opportunities lie, we need a blueprint for a low-carbon energy and industrial system to encourage investors. And we will need to support the regions and communities where economic activity will dry up, particularly coal regions.

Why are we not getting there? Tony Abbott put the finger on it in his concession speech after losing his seat in parliament. “Where climate change is a moral issue we Liberals do it tough. But where climate change is an economic issue we do very well,” said the man who gained the prime ministership by stoking fear about a carbon tax. In electorates that are not affluent, fear about cuts to income are potent.

Labor focused on strong ambition for climate outcomes but did not talk much about how to achieve it, or the costs and benefits. It got stung by shoddy claims that a strong emissions target would be very costly, to which Labor did not have a good answer.

Cutting emissions can be achieved with low economic cost and some direct benefits, even before considering climate damages avoided. Wind and solar power are now by far the cheapest ways to produce electricity from newly built plants in Australia. A sensible policy would be to facilitate the rapid investment in renewables, guide an orderly exit from coal, and encourage industry to move to zero-carbon energy sources. Various state governments see it that way.

If the do-nothing approach prevails, the national electricity market will continue to be in a mess. More coal power stations will exit suddenly when old equipment fails. Replacement investment in renewables and storage will not be ready, causing power prices to shoot up like they did after the closure of Hazelwood. Without a low-carbon roadmap, money spent ensuring reliability of the grid will not be what is needed long term.

The federal government may again be tempted to subsidise the refurbishment of old coal plants, and to lavish coal subsidies on Queensland. The incumbent energy industries will see their profits will remain high. Consumers, energy-using businesses and taxpayers will pay the bill, and emissions will be unnecessarily high.

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With effective policy, things could be very different. Australia could meet practically all of its energy use from solar and wind power. We could use green electricity and renewables-based hydrogen in industry and in transport. We could build up an industry that produces green hydrogen, ammonia, aluminium and steel for export to countries who are less fortunate than Australia in their endowment with renewable energy opportunities. Those industries could grow larger than the coal and gas industry now is. They could last indefinitely and help the world decarbonise.

To the many people in Australia who care deeply about climate change and dedicate some of their life to finding solutions, the election outcome will seem like a hard blow. But do not despair, do not retreat. Continue your work, with objectivity, integrity and dedication. Countries that produce and export large amounts of fossil fuels have an uphill battle for forward looking policy on climate. But the opportunities in the global shift to clean energy are compelling, and coal is not the future.

Let’s insist on having that national conversation.

• Frank Jotzo is the director of the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy at the Australian National University