SNP ‘will get 42 seats,’ predicts Nate Silver poll

THE SNP are set to win 42 seats in the General Election next month, according to American poll guru Nate Silver.

By The Newsroom Monday, 20th April 2015, 5:30 pm

Nicola Sturgeon launches the SNP manifesto in Edinburgh. Picture: Getty

Silver - who correctly predicted the winner in 49 of 50 US states in the 2008 presidential election - has predicted that the Conservatives will win 283 seats and Labour 274, resulting in a completely hung parliament

But even if the Conservatives joined forces with the Liberal Democrats - who are predicted to win 27 seats - and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), they would still be short of 323 seats, the number needed for a majority.

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And Labour, who have ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP, would also be short of a majority even if they did form a government with the Nationalists.

Nate Silver. Picture: TSPL

Silver has Ukip and the Greens winning one seat apiece, with the DUP picking up eight seats, amounting to 636 seats - 14 short of the total number of Westminster seats.

However, Silver got it wrong prior to the 2010 election, predicting heavy losses for Labour and big gains for the Liberal Democrats.

Silver’s figures projected Labour to win 214 seats, and the Lib Dems to pick up 101. In reality, Labour won 258 while the Lib Dems lost five seats.

Recent polls have predicted the SNP to win anywhere between 40 and 55 seats out of Scotland’s 59.

Last week, polls by Lord Ashcroft suggested big hitters such as Douglas Alexander and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy were on track to lose their seats to the SNP next month.

Nate Silver’s polling

Conservatives 283

Labour 274

SNP 42

Liberal Democrats 27

Democratic Unionist Party 8

Green Party 1