MEPS 621:1-17 (2019) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12980

FEATURE ARTICLE Global biogeography of coral recruitment: tropical decline and subtropical increase

N. N. Price1,*, S. Muko2, L. Legendre3, R. Steneck4, M. J. H. van Oppen5,6, R. Albright5,7,18, P. Ang Jr.8, R. C. Carpenter9, A. P. Y. Chui8, T.-Y. Fan10, R. D. Gates11, S. Harii12, H. Kitano13, H. Kurihara14, S. Mitarai15, J. L. Padilla-Gamiño16, K. Sakai12, G. Suzuki17, P. J. Edmunds9

1Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME 04544, USA

2Graduate School of Fisheries Science and Environmental Studies, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, 852-8521, Nagasaki City, Japan

3Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, LOV, 06230 Villefranche-sur-Mer, France

4University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences, Darling Marine Center, Walpole, ME 04353, USA

5Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, QLD 4810, Australia

6School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia

7Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

8Marine Science Laboratory, School of Life Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, NT Hong Kong, SAR, China

9Department of Biology, California State University, Northridge, CA 91330-8303, USA

10National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Pingtung 944, Taiwan

11Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, HI 96744, USA

12Sesoko Station, Tropical Biosphere Research Center, University of the Ryukyus, Motobu-cho, Okinawa 905-0227, Japan

13Open Biology Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Onna, Okinawa 904-0495, Japan

14Faculty of Science, Biology Program, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan

15Marine Biophysics Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Onna, Okinawa 904-0495, Japan

16School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA

17Research Center for Subtropical Fisheries, Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Ishigaki, Okinawa 907-0451, Japan

18Present address: California Academy of Sciences, San Francisco, CA 94118, USA

ABSTRACT: Despite widespread climate-driven reductions of coral cover on tropical reefs, little attention has been paid to the possibility that changes in the geographic distribution of coral recruitment could facilitate beneficial responses to the changing climate through latitudinal range shifts. To address this possibility, we compiled a global database of normalized densities of coral recruits on settlement tiles (corals m-2) deployed from 1974 to 2012, and used the data therein to test for latitudinal range shifts in the distribution of coral recruits. In total, 92 studies provided 1253 records of coral recruitment, with 77% originating from settlement tiles immersed for 3-24 mo, herein defined as long-immersion tiles (LITs); the limited temporal and geographic coverage of data from short-immersion tiles (SITs; deployed for <3 mo) made them less suitable for the present purpose. The results from LITs show declines in coral recruitment, on a global scale (i.e. 82% from 1974 to 2012) and throughout the tropics (85% reduction at <20° latitude), and increases in the sub-tropics (78% increase at >20° latitude). These trends indicate that a global decline in coral recruitment has occurred since 1974, and the persistent reduction in the densities of recruits in equatorial latitudes, coupled with increased densities in sub-tropical latitudes, suggests that coral recruitment may be shifting poleward.

KEY WORDS: Coral settlement · Poleward range shift · Range extension · Equatorial retraction · Retrospective analyses · Global warming