Every season over the past decade, at least four playoff teams failed to make the postseason in the following season. With parity at an all-time high in the NFL, don’t expect any deviation from that trend in 2016. But which four teams will fall back next season? We take a look at the teams least likely to make it back to the playoffs, starting with the most likely to prove us wrong.

1. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals making an appearance on this list says more about the division they play in than it does about the team itself. The Steelers should be a lot healthier in 2016 after losing Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell for significant periods of time during the 2015 regular season. The Ravens will not stay down for long, and were probably the unluckiest team in the NFL when it comes to injuries. The AFC North is a battle every year, so Cincinnati dropping from first to third would not be much of a shock.

It’s not just their divisional opponents the Bengals have to worry about either. Six impactful starters are headed for free agency this offseason, as well as two key reserves. Cincinnati has about $36 million in cap room for the upcoming offseason, according to Spotrac’s projections, but most of that will go to trying to keep this team together. It’s unlikely the Bengals will be able to re-sign all of those expired contracts and there certainly won’t be enough money left over to adequately replace the players they lost.

Bengals upcoming free agents. Marvin Jones and George Iloka are the top priorities with Pacman & Nelson following. pic.twitter.com/uDEdo1CgSl — JG (@JoeGoodberry) January 16, 2016

The coaching staff has already taken a huge hit with the departure of offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, one of the best play-callers in the league. Jackson’s offense, and Andy Dalton’s familiarity with it, was a big reason for the quarterback’s breakout season. The playbook may not change much with quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese getting the promotion, but there will surely be growing pains as Dalton adjusts to a new voice in his helmet.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

I’m not sure what to make of Kansas City’s finish to the 2015 season. Andy Reid’s team won eleven games in a row before losing in New England in the divisional round, but look at the teams it beat during the streak:

Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger, a 1-6 Lions team, the Broncos with an injured Peyton Manning turning the ball over four times, San Diego, Buffalo, Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland and Houston.

Winning 11 games in a row in the NFL is an accomplishment no matter who’s on the schedule, but don’t expect the Chiefs to be that same dominant team against a more balanced schedule.

More importantly, the Chiefs could be in for a rough offseason with Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Sean Smith needing new contracts. Kansas City has about $30 million in cap space to try to keep the defense together, but it’s unlikely all of those key players stay in town. And that doesn’t leave much money to make additions to the roster. It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs being any better in 2016.

3. Washington Redskins

Washington rolled into the playoffs after its offense finally got healthy in the second half. The returns of DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed took pressure off Kirk Cousins, and the 27-year-old settled into his role as a distributor nicely. Everything went right for Washington in the second half, but Jackson and Reed are injury prone players so it’s not like the team can expect them to play a full 16-game schedule next season.

Cousins isn’t even signed for 2016 yet, but it’s unlikely he gets to free agency. Even if Washington can’t lock him up long-term, the franchise tag will keep Cousins on the roster. The front office can use the money it will save by cutting Robert Griffin III (about $16.2 million) to re-sign Cousins and keep their cap open to add to the roster.

With the Cowboys getting a healthy Tony Romo back next year, Dallas is the early favorite to take the NFC East, so Washington needs another good offseason to keep up with its long-time rivals. General manager Scot Mccloughan worked wonders in his first go-around in the nation’s capital, but you never know when Daniel Snyder will intervene.

4. Houston Texans

Houston was just keeping the AFC South’s spot in the playoffs warm while Andrew Luck and his Colts slogged through an injury-riddled season. That’s probably a little harsh. The Texans are a good football team that just happens to struggle at the position that matters most. Unless they find a quarterback to replace Brian Hoyer — the good news is there are some decent passers headed for free agency — Houston will likely return to the role of playoff spectator in 2016.

If the Texans decide to use their first-round pick to find their quarterback — which is probably the smarter move and definitely the cheaper one — it’s unlikely they’ll get a guy ready to start from day one. Best case scenario, Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg, who has experience in Bill O’Brien’s offense, falls to Houston at No. 22, but it’s unlikely he would be ready to start right away. The stuff O’Brien is running in the pros is far more complex than what he was doing in Happy Valley. Either way, Houston’s offense should be in for another tough season — and another 9-7 finish is not likely to cut it.