In the third and final debate of this wild presidential election season, Donald Trump promised on Wednesday to deport “some bad hombres” from the United States, accused Hillary Clinton’s campaign of sabotage and called his opponent a “nasty woman.” Clinton dismissed Trump as a “puppet” of Vladimir Putin and attacked his record with women, all before dubbing the GOP nominee “the most dangerous person to run for president in the modern history of America.”

It was all pretty much routine in a campaign marked more by put-downs than policy discussion—or at least it was until Trump broke with centuries of tradition and told the audience that he wasn’t sure whether he would accept the voting results on Election Day. It was an admission that shocked—but also one not likely to be uttered by a candidate who’s confident, or even halfway confident, of a win on November 8. Indeed, over the past week and a half, as more than 10 women have accused Trump of sexual assault, he has been sliding in the polls, and election forecasters were giving Clinton around an 85 percent of victory.


If there was an air of inevitability hovering around Clinton, Wednesday night’s debate was Trump’s chance to staunch the bleeding. So, did he manage that? We asked some of the savviest political observers around to watch the debate tell us: Did it mark a reversal, or is it all over? And, after a campaign that’s been unprecedented in so many ways, what will we remember most about this election cycle in the future?

Most agreed that it probably is over—that Trump missed his chance to turn things around, and that calling into question the fundamentals of American democracy certainly didn’t help. Others, however, were less confident, maintaining that Trump rallied and that no one should be making predictions during such an unpredictable election cycle. As for what we will remember years from now? “Lewd talk,” the “end of the Republican Party as we know it” and “the end of 240 years of shared understandings about our common life” were just a few of the things these observers offered.

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‘Trump surrendered whatever shreds remained of his credibility’

Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of the National Interest

Unlike Donald Trump, I won’t keep you in suspense. He didn’t lose the election Wednesday night; he forfeited it. Bigly.

Forget his encomiums to Vladimir Putin or his gratuitous disparagement of Hillary Clinton as “such a nasty woman.” With his announcement that he won’t commit to respecting the result of the election, Trump surrendered whatever shreds remained of his credibility, sounding like Mr. Podsnap in Charles Dickens’ Our Mutual Friend: “I don’t want to know about it; I don’t choose to discuss it; I won’t admit it.” This is why what happened in Vegas won’t stay in Vegas.

What will be remembered from the 2016 election—or, to put it more precisely, mourned by Republicans and celebrated by Democrats—is that Trump remained true to himself to the very end, choking on his own bile.

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‘The losing candidate mattered more than the candidate who actually won’

Michael Kazin, professor of history at Georgetown University and editor of Dissent

Barring some catastrophic new revelations about her conduct as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton essentially won the election after the Democratic convention this past summer. Nothing she or Donald Trump said during Wednesday night’s debate changed that fact. But this will be remembered as one of the very few presidential elections in which the losing candidate mattered more than the candidate who actually won. Trump’s 18-month performance in a self-written piece he should have called “Make America Hate Again” repelled far more Americans than it attracted. Yet even before the final curtain goes down, we are wondering—no we are shuddering to find out—what crazy, destructive things he and his adoring followers will say and do next.

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‘Trump’s win or loss will matter less if he takes our democratic institutions out with him’

Nicole Hemmer, assistant professor at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, co-host of the Past Present podcast and author of Messengers of the Right: Conservative Media and the Transformation of American Politics

If Donald Trump needed to sketch out policy positions in order to stay in the race, he did that tonight. It may allow him to hang on for the last three weeks, though he has been lagging behind Hillary Clinton throughout the campaign and did nothing in Wednesday’s debate that would allow him to leapfrog her. But the matter of his win or loss will matter less if he takes our democratic institutions out with him—and that was all that mattered at the debate.

One moment crystallized precisely what the 2016 election is about. When asked whether he would respect the election results, Trump shrugged. “I will look at it at the time,” he told moderator, Chris Wallace. “I’ll keep you in suspense, OK?” No, not OK. Not at all. This isn’t the build-up to the season finale of a reality show. This is the basis of our representative democracy. Americans are not supposed to be waiting to hear Trump’s verdict on election night; he is supposed to be waiting to hear ours.

In many ways, our democracy was born on March 4, 1801, the first time power transferred peaceably from one party to the next. Except for 1860, when the country dissolved into civil war, that tradition has been maintained. Maintained through suspect bargains and Supreme Court decisions. Maintained in times of war and times of economic collapse. Maintained because it is the compact that knits our diverse population together. The maintenance of that compact is now what the 2016 election is about, and how it will be remembered.

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‘This will not seal the deal for Hillary Clinton any more than the previous serial missteps of the Trump campaign’

Theodore R. Johnson, fellow at the New America Foundation, adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy and frequent contributor to the Atlantic.

Wednesday night was supposed to be the “prepared” Donald Trump. What we saw, though, was that even the most prepared version of Trump couldn’t avoid the self-sabotage that’s become typical of his campaign. He started off steady enough throwing red meat to the party base on the Constitution and tax cuts. But he then made the unthinkable declaration that the yet-to-occur election is somehow rigged, and, as such, he isn’t sure if he will accept the results. This admission will dominate the election conversation not just for the foreseeable future, but as a moment forever etched in political history. We have all heard of a faithless elector. But a faithless nominee?

Yet somehow, this will not seal the deal for Hillary Clinton any more than the previous serial missteps of the Trump campaign. Trump’s performance Wednesday was not about expanding his appeal to undecided and independent voters; the goal (at least in theory) was to stick to policy, bringing Republicans off the fence and white voters off the sidelines. His approach was to paint a depressed and defeated America that only he can fix. The prevailing lesson of 2016 is that there is, indeed, an audience for it.

Conversely, Clinton painted a bright and hopeful vision for America, centering her pitch on the middle class. But she also knows how to play the game, and she was not shy about intentionally provoking Trump in the hope that he would lose his cool. She needled away at his machismo demeanor, accusing him of shedding “crocodile tears” over his hotels, musing that he “choked” to not bring up with wall with the Mexican president, incessantly teasing him over his daddy’s money and, in a twist on the Trump-style epithet (Little Marco?), called Trump Putin’s Puppet. He took the bait—hook, line and sinker. Her strategy was to get him angry and ranting; she succeeded.

What will 2016 be remembered for? The heaving sigh of thankfulness, exhaled from an exhausted nation.

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‘It’s hard to see how that gets Trump the votes he needs’

Kori Schake, research fellow at the Hoover Institution



Yes, I think we probably did just see the end of the election. Donald Trump needed to win over independent and undecided voters, and between refusing to commit to respecting the election outcome and calling Hillary Clinton a “nasty woman,” it’s hard to see how that gets him the votes he needs. He had some solid criticisms of her, but offered even worse policies of his own.

What I will remember about this election—ruefully—is how eminently winnable it was for any Republican candidate other than Trump. Clinton has a patchy record, historically high unfavorables, a wildly unaffordable platform, lots of unsuccessful Obama policies to defend—and none of it mattered because we conservatives selected an erratic, unprincipled, disrespectful demagogue.

Whether Trump voters persist as a major force in American politics depends on whether Republican leaders provide conservative policies that address voters’ serious concerns. There will be a temptation to brush this embarrassing interlude under the rug; but that would be a terrible mistake. We’re living through a time of economic upheaval and rapid change, and we need to provide leadership and policies that help all Americans face change bravely.



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‘The truth is Trump lost this race the day he entered it’

Bill Scher, senior writer at the Campaign for America’s Future, co-host of the Bloggingheads.tv show “The DMZ” and Politico Magazine contributing editor

This cake is baked. Any hope that Donald Trump could deliver a game-changing last-ditch final debate performance was dashed when he refused to accept the Election Day results. Everyone except for the most delusional Trump supporter knows that Hillary Clinton will be the next president. The only unknowns are whether:

1. Hillary Clinton can break 50 percent of the popular vote in the four-way race, giving Democrats three consecutive presidential popular vote majorities for the first time since 1940.

2. Gary Johnson can break 5 percent (which would earn the Libertarian Party federal campaign funds for 2020).

3. Evan McMullin can win Utah’s 6 electoral votes.

4. Democrats can claim the Senate or even the House.

People will look back and point to various Trump transgressions and insults during the general election to explain his coming loss: the “Access Hollywood” hot mic, the tax returns, the Khans, the amateurish debate performances. But the truth is Trump lost this race the day he entered it, when he smeared Latino immigrants as rapists and criminals. He has never led in poll averages against Clinton, save for a brief convention bounce, because he never stopped being a candidate of white right-wing rage in a multicultural center-left nation.



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‘Nothing Wednesday night changed the trajectory of the election’

Katie Packer, a Republican consultant, adjunct professor at George Washington University and founder of the anti-Donald Trump super PAC Our Principles PAC

Nothing Wednesday night changed the trajectory of the election. A significant chunk of undecided voters moved to Hillary Clinton’s column since the last debate, as more than 10 women have accused Donald Trump of sexual assault, and nothing changed that Wednesday night. Trump is on track to be the biggest loser in a national campaign since Walter Mondale.

I think we will remember this year as the year that reality TV took over the American presidential election. And I think most people found it to be a little too “real”—from the name calling and the coarseness to the silly stunts involving controversial debate guests.

Time will tell if this was an outlier or the future of American campaigns.

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‘I’m pretty well convinced that we did see the end of the election Wednesday night’

Douglas Schoen, founding partner and principal strategist for Penn, Schoen and Berland, and a former pollster for Bill Clinton





I’m pretty well convinced that we did see the end of the election Wednesday night. Make no mistake: Donald Trump did very well—better than he had done in the first two debates. His answers were crisp and, in large measure, responsive to the questions asked. He did make one big mistake by saying he may well not accept the results of the election—another issue that will at the very least distract swing voters from his core message. But Hillary Clinton was just as good. She didn’t need a win, just a tie—and she certainly achieved that if not more.

What we will remember from this election is this: The Trump nomination and vigorous, if losing, campaign in the general election could well mark the end of the Republican Party as we know it. Time will tell.

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‘Trump enters the final three weeks in a stronger position’

Newt Gingrich, former U.S. speaker of the House

Donald Trump did better than his supporters expected. He enters the final three weeks in a stronger position. WikiLeaks continues to undermine Hillary Clinton. And Chris Wallace was the best moderator this year.

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‘A stiff uppercut to Trump’s own jaw … but the debate showed the weaknesses of Democratic positions’

Drew Westen, professor of psychology at Emory University and author of The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding The Fate of the Nation

Yes, the election ended Wednesday night. Donald Trump came into this fight needing a knockout punch—and he got it. Unfortunately, it was a stiff uppercut to his own jaw. He should be disqualified for suggesting he might not accept the results of the election, the kind of statement that is poisonous, if not treasonous, in a democracy. Our Founders tried a bold experiment to see if, or how long, citizens could respect a process, even a flawed one, to ensure the peaceful turnover of power. Perhaps it was Trump’s narcissism speaking, his seeming incapacity to look in the mirror when he has done something or someone wrong, or chasing any opportunity for grandeur—a parody of Muhammad Ali (“I’m the greatest!”), except that Trump doesn’t get that showmanship of that sort requires talent behind it. Or perhaps it was simply his profound ignorance of the forces he could unleash if he were to get close to the finish line but come up short. More likely, it was a combination of all of the above.

But the true knockout blow capped off a series of weeks in which Trump’s disrespect for women had turned the stomachs of Republican women—but also their fathers, husbands and brothers: Trump could not stop himself from demonstrating it one last time, with his “nasty woman” comment at Hillary Clinton.

What will be remembered most about 2016? Let’s realize that the debate showed the weaknesses of Democratic positions, at which Trump took some very effective jabs. Clinton could not seem to come up with a really compelling reason why we should welcome undocumented workers. Not until the end of her answer on taxes (when middle class voters had tuned out) did she get around to mentioning that the “tax hikes” would not affect anyone making less than $250,000 a year. And Democrats drop their gloves every time they allow their opponents to call Social Security and Medicare “entitlement programs,” as if people haven’t been paying for those benefits over the course of their work lives. Yes, Republicans will need to figure out a new ideology in the post-Reagan era. But Democrats are going to need to do the same, so that they seem to be a party defined by their values, not just their coalition—or the craziness of their opponent, which won’t be the case in 2020.

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‘In this year no one should make any predictions—least of all journalists’

Todd S. Purdum, senior writer at Politico and contributing editor at Vanity Fair

In this year no one should make any predictions—least of all journalists.

I am less sure that we have seen the end of this election than that, in Trump’s comments about not accepting the election results, we have seen the end of 240 years of shared understandings about our common life.

I can’t shake the feeling that this election will be remembered as the moment when sentiments that had only been whispered have been shouted aloud. After 34 years in this game, I can say it’s less fun to play now than it ever has been.

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‘Trump did not pull a rabbit out of his hat’

Ron Bonjean, a partner of the public affairs firm ROKK Solutions and former top spokesman in the Senate and House of Representatives

Donald Trump’s performance improved, and he had a much better night than the past two debates. He made attempts at reaching out to people that feel left out of the economy, but he should have provided more detail about how he plans to solve that problem, like he did with his immigration plan. Unfortunately, any attempts Trump made to attract voters outside his base were undermined when he said that he might not accept the results of the election. He did a much better job going after Hillary Clinton about her email scandals, the Clinton Foundation problems and the new accusations about her campaign disrupting Trump rallies. Three weeks is still a lot of time, but Trump did not pull a rabbit out of his hat and move the needle enough to change the negative direction of the polls at this point. It feels like this election cake is almost baked.

In all of this, the most memorable part of the campaign is the tale of the videotape. Yes, there the politically damaging video of Clinton fainting on September 11 almost hobbled her campaign. But the devastating video of Trump’s comments on that bus 11 years ago destroyed Trump in the polls.

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‘This election was over after the Trump Tape was released’

Sophia A. Nelson, author and journalist

This election was over after the Donald Trump tape was released. It has gone downhill since then, as Hillary Clinton’s lead has increased steadily. Trump will lose on November 8 by at least 5 points, if not more. What we will remember about this debate is the incivility, lewd talk and back-and-forth about who was a worse womanizer and sexual harasser: Mr. Trump or former President Bill Clinton?

But for me as a woman, what I will remember most is that good women I once respected defended bad men who demeaned, verbally abused and likely even sexually assaulted other women. Unprecedented boundaries of morality and decency were crossed in this campaign. And it was painful for our country. It was sad for our young people, who deserve better. My hope is that this election is a mirror to our souls. And that we will clean up our act: Come together as a nation and heal as we move to swear in a new president and a new administration in January.

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‘Wednesday night was Trump’s last opportunity … and he failed’

Rick Wilson is a national Republican message and media strategist

Wednesday night was Donald Trump’s last opportunity to make a decision about whether he was going to play to his limited and angry Breitbart base, or if he was going to make one swing at being a dignified adult and to show presidential character. He chose the former, and by his comments about not respecting the democratic process, he cued his supporters up for something very ugly come election night.

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‘Game, set and match’

Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont, chair of the Democratic National Committee and 2004 Democratic presidential candidate

Chris Wallace did a solid job. Donald Trump finally cracked in the second half and failed the basic test which is to allow voters to imagine him as president. Looking presidential is never a problem for Hillary Clinton. Game, set and match to her.

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The only thing that really mattered

Jeff Greenfield, network television analyst, author and Politico Magazine contributing editor

Taking about anything else except Trump's refusal to accept the results is very much like the old joke: “Apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”