When Everton appointed Sam Allardyce on 30th November 2017, they became the 7th club to be managed by him in the Premier League, a new Premier League record. Alan Pardew, Mark Hughes, Roy Hodgson and Harry Redknapp are the next highest, all managing 5 different teams in the Premier League. A frequent term for these managers is ‘merry-go-round managers’; managers who are mostly employed for guaranteed short-term success. I will study the careers of these ‘merry-go-round’ managers, to see which has been the most effective at giving clubs short-term success.

In each section, I will visualise and study the careers (since 2001) of the five managers listed above, in the following order:

Roy Hodgson Alan Pardew Mark Hughes Harry Redknapp Sam Allardyce

I will also give a final verdict, on which manager is the best ‘merry-go-round’ manager from looking at their careers.

(Update: Entirely unrelated to the article, but I have added further graphs of new managers in a bonus section. These managers are Arsene Wenger, Steve Bruce, David Moyes, Neil Warnock and Alex Ferguson. Scroll to bottom of article to see)

1. ROY HODGSON

Let’s look at our first manager, Roy Hodgson:

The graph shows a succinct summary of the managerial career of Roy Hodgson in the Premier League since 2001. Each black vertical line shows when he changed clubs, with grey vertical lines showing the end/beginning of a new season. It is worth noting that this graph only shows 4 of the teams he has managed; his first club was Blackburn Rovers in 1997-98, but I am only going to study data since 2001.

His surprise appointment at Fulham midway through the 2007-08 season seemed a poor choice initially. Fulham were 18th, and Hodgson only picked up 9 points from his first 13 games, spending most of the season in the relegation zone (as seen). A final good run of form ensured Fulham’s survival that season (17th), but it was only secured in the final game against Portsmouth.

Throughout the rest of this article, I am going to be focussing on these ‘mid-season panic’ types of seasons, where a club sacks a poorly-performing manager (regardless of longer-term history), and employs the ’merry-go-round’ manager to rescue them from poor league positions. These are the types of scenarios which have defined the careers of my chosen ‘merry-go-round’ managers. Seasons where the manager joins midway through are denoted by a double-asterisk (**) in all graphs in this article, and I’ll refer to these seasons as ‘panic seasons’.

So let’s study other ‘panic seasons’ where Roy Hodgson joined mid-way through. The only other past example is when he was appointed manager of West Brom, midway through the 2010-11 season. West Brom were 17th, and had recently fired Roberto di Matteo, having lost 13 out of their previous 18 games. Hodgson won 5 and drew 5 out of the next 12 games, with West Brom ending in 11th, which was their highest league finish for three decades. This is one of Hodgson’s greatest achievements in the Premier League.

The final other ‘panic season’ for Hodgson is the current 2017-18 season. Crystal Palace were majorly struggling, cut adrift at the bottom of the table, and had failed to score (let alone win) in their opening 7 games (until a 2-1 victory against Chelsea in GW8). Since his appointment, Crystal Palace have risen to 14th. Hodgson had a tough run of fixtures initially, but after clearing that stage, they are currently unbeaten in their last 7 Premier League games.

In the two completed ‘panic seasons’ Hodgson has managed, he took West Brom from 17th to 11th, and Fulham from 18th to 17th. Hodgson has saved 2 clubs out of 2 during ‘panic seasons’, with an average position change of +3.5 (+ sign indicating ‘climbing up’ the table, – sign meaning sinking further)

Whilst I will be focussing on the ‘panic seasons’ of my chosen managers, I will also discuss other notable things in each graph, focussing on high-points and low-points. Let’s start with a low-point. You may have noticed Hodgson’s short spell at Liverpool in 2010-11 was particularly interesting, where he found himself 19th in the table after 8 games played, with himself quoting that “if you are in the relegation zone, then you are in a relegation battle”. Liverpool had finished 7th the season before, under Rafael Benitez. He left the club in January after recovering to 12th, where Kenny Dalglish oversaw their rise to 6th by the end of the season.

Whilst that is undoubtedly a low-point of his career, one of his major achievements is what he did with Fulham after saving them from relegation in 2007-08. He finished the 2008-09 season in 7th place, the clubs highest ever position, and qualified for the new Europa League. They achieved great success in the tournament during the 2009-10 season, beating Juventus, Wolfsburg, Shakhtar Donetsk and Hamburg to reach the final, where they lost in extra-time to Atletico Madrid.

2. ALAN PARDEW

Let’s look at Alan Pardew’s managerial career since 2001:

This graph shows all five clubs Pardew has managed in the Premier League. Similar to Roy Hodgson, there are two completed ‘panic seasons’, as well as his appointment this year being a third. In 2006-07, Charlton were 19th in the table, with just 12 points from 19 games when they appointed Pardew. It is generally observed that he made an improvement to the Charlton team; regardless, he was relegated for the first time in his career (as a player and manager) that season, finishing in 19th. He stayed with Charlton through a mediocre 2007-08 season, and a poor start to the 2008-09 season left Charlton in the bottom 3 of the Championship, unleashing a huge backlash from Charlton’s fans, when he eventually parted company in November 2008.

The other ‘panic season’ is the 2014-15 Crystal Palace season. Palace had just sacked Neil Warnock, who left the team in 18th place, when Pardew was appointed in January 2015. Pardew guided Palace to their best-ever league finish of 10th. This, partnered with the Charlton 07-08 season of starting 19th and ending 19th, means Pardew has saved 1 club and relegated 1 club during ‘panic seasons’, with an average position change of +4 positions.

Personally, I will always associate Pardew with his roller-coaster time as manager of Newcastle Utd, which both constitutes a high and low point in his career. There are just so many memorable moments during his time there: remarkable 7-3 and 4-4 PL games against Arsenal being a few. Plenty of Newcastle fans also forget the initial success Pardew bought them. He won the ‘Manager of the Season’ award in 2011-12, with Newcastle ending 5th and securing European competition the following year. However, for every good season he had there, a poor one always seemed to follow. He eventually left Newcastle in his fifth season, leaving them in 10th place.

3. MARK HUGHES

Let’s study Mark Hughes, and his two complete ‘panic seasons’. Hughes took over Blackburn Rovers in September 2004 with the club struggling in 19th, after Graeme Sounness had left to manage Newcastle United. This is perhaps too early to be considered a ‘panic season’ (only 5 games had been played). With that being said, Frank de Boer was sacked by Crystal Palace this season after 5 games, so perhaps it should count as a ‘panic season’. He finished that season in 15th position.

The other is QPR in 2011-12. QPR had recently sacked Neil Warnock, and were 17th in the table when Hughes was appointed in January. It came down to the final game of the season (Manchester City, away) to determine if they were relegated. They learned of their safety mid-game, after fellow-strugglers Bolton failed to beat Stoke. This game, however, is mostly remembered for another reason: Aguero scoring a dramatic 94th minute winner secured Manchester City’s first title in 44 years.

So Hughes took Blackburn from 19th to 15th, and QPR from 17th to 17th in the above 2011-12 season. Out of two ‘panic seasons’, Hughes saved 2 clubs out of 2, averaging a position change of +2 positions.

Let’s look at other seasons Hughes has managed. Out of all managers studied so far, I find Hughes to be the most consistent. Look at his Stoke and Blackburn seasons. They mostly start off poorly, and spend the rest of the reason gradually improving. His first three seasons at Stoke ended in 9th place, and in all three, Stoke had found themselves <16th in the first 10 games. The trend broke last season, where they only finished 13th, after finding themselves bottom in the initial run of games. This season looks even worse than last, with no sign of an upward climb in positions evident yet.

At two points in Hughes’ career, he was the manager of clubs who had only just been bought by rich, foreign owners, and had virtually endless money to spend on players. On 1st September 2008, a £200m takeover of Manchester City was completed, but it was only roughly 15 hours before the summer transfer deadline; in the limited time left, Tottenham star Berbatov was almost bought, and Real Madrid star Robinho was just about bought, for a British record fee of £32.5m, causing huge shockwaves throughout the Premier League. Hughes, however, could not translate money into success, bringing City into the relegation zone after 18 games played. They eventually finished 10th, and Hughes was sacked the year after, with the club in 6th, to be replaced by Roberto Mancini.

The other ‘money-no-object’ season that Hughes was manager was the QPR 2012-13 season, after a recent takeover of QPR by Tony Fernandes. In the summer of 2012, Jose Bosingwa, Julio Cesar, Esteban Granero, Kieron Dyer, Andrew Johnson, Park Ji-Sung, Junior Hoilett, Robert Green, and Ryan Nelsen all joined the club, with further major signings in January. Hughes never got to see this January window; he was sacked in November after 12 games, in 20th position.

4. HARRY REDKNAPP

Harry Redknapp is not normally associated as a ‘merry-go-round’ manager (hence why he’s excluded from the title of the article). 5 Premier League clubs over a 23 year management history doesn’t sound very much like a ‘merry-go-round’. Regardless, I’d hate to see a good graph go to waste, so let’s look at his managerial career anyway:

This shows the 4 separate clubs he’s managed (twice at Portsmouth), with his fifth club being West Ham, managed between 1994-2001.

There are 3 ‘panic seasons’ in his career. I shall not count the Tottenham 2008-09 season; they had finished 5th the season before, and it was only the incredibly-pessimistic Spurs fans who thought they would actually be relegated.

Redknapp made the controversial switch from Portsmouth to fierce-rival Southampton in December of the 2004-05 season. Southampton had just fired Steve Wigley, who managed one win in 14 games in charge, with Southampton in 18th place. Redknapp could not save Southampton, ending the season in 20th place, and were relegated to the recently rebranded ‘Championship’.

After leaving Southampton midway through their Championship season, he re-joined Portsmouth in December 2005, with the club in 18th position. Unlike his previous season, he guided Portsmouth to survival, ending in 17th position in the 2005-06 season.

The final ‘panic season’ occurred in 2012-13 with QPR. In the previous section, you might remember Mark Hughes started this season (signing lots of aging players), and was sacked in November with the club in 20th. Redknapp could not improve QPR’s position in the table, finishing the season in 20th.

Out of three ‘panic seasons’, Redknapp saved a club once and was relegated twice, with an average position change of -0.33 positions.

Let’s look at other clubs Redknapp has managed. Personally, I mostly associate him with his time as manager of Tottenham. They were actually 20th when Redknapp was appointed in October 2008, following the sacking of Juande Ramos, who had secured just 2 points in the first 8 games that season. This was an anomalous league position; the previous 3 seasons, Tottenham had finished 5th, 5th, 9th. Redknapp guided Tottenham back to 8th in the table, as well as reaching the League Cup final (which they lost on penalties to Manchester United). The following season was a great success for Redknapp, winning the ‘Manager of the Year’ award for guiding Tottenham to 4th in 2009-10. After being knocked out by Real Madrid in the quarter-finals of the Champions League in 2010-11, they finished 5th in the Premier League, securing a Europa League spot for the 2011-12 season. Redknapp led Tottenham to their second 4rd-place finish in three years during 2011-12, but was sacked after the season finished, due to failing to reach terms on a new contract.

Another successful time for Redknapp was the club he managed previously before Tottenham: Portsmouth. After guiding them to safety in 2005-06, he guided them to 9th in the 2006-07 season, their highest league position since the 1950’s. It got even better the year after. In 2007-08, whilst guiding them to 8th in the Premier League and breaking the record of the previous season, he remarkably won the FA Cup with Portsmouth in 2008, making him the last English manager to do so. For this achievement, he actually received the Freedom of the City for Portsmouth. This ceremony, which occurred in October 2008, was marred by the fact Redknapp had actually left Portsmouth two days prior to the ceremony, to manage Tottenham (as described above), receiving a mixed reception from the Portsmouth fans.

5. SAM ALLARDYCE

Let’s look at the only manager in this list who requires three rows to visualise all the data:

Sam Allardyce had effectively 7 full seasons at Bolton in the Premier League (he resigned after 36 games of 2006-07). Allardyce had led them to promotion from the First Division in 2000-01, and started the 2001-02 season with a great run of 3 wins out of 3.

Let’s look at the ‘panic seasons’ that Allardyce was bought in for. The first was Blackburn in 2008-09. He was appointed in December 2008, succeeding Paul Ince, who had left the club in 19th after 3 wins in 17 games. Allardyce led Blackburn to 15th.

The second ‘panic season’ is Sunderland in 2015-16. Dick Advocaat had quit after 3 draws in 8 games, leaving Sunderland 19th. Again, Allardyce saved the club from relegation. On 11th May 2016, Sunderland beat Roberto Martinez’s Everton 3-0, which ensured their survival for that season, whilst simultaneously relegating rivals Newcastle.

The final ‘panic season’ occurred last season, when Allardyce was appointed manager of Crystal Palace. On 23rd December 2016, he was appointed manager, replacing fellow ‘merry-go-round’ manager Alan Pardew (you can see Pardew leaving Palace in 17th in his graph, and Allardyce starting in 17th in this graph. Allardyce was appointed the day after Pardew’s sacking). He ensured Palace’s safety in their penultimate fixture against Hull Ciity. After ending in 14th position, he announced his departure from the club.

The current Everton season can also be considered a ‘panic season’. There was genuine fear of relegation from Everton fans, after several key signings in the summer failing to live up to expectations. When Koeman was sacked, Everton were 18th. Due to the long time-period between his sacking and Allardyce’s appointment, Allardyce inherited a team in 13th position.

Once again studying only the ‘panic seasons’, Allardyce led Blackburn from 19th to 15th (safety), Sunderland from 19th to 17th (safety), and Crystal Palace from 17th to 14th (safety). Allardyce has saved all 3 clubs that appointed him mid-season, with an average position change of +3 positions.

From looking at the graphs, I would say his time at Bolton was Allardyce’s high point. Turning a recently-promoted team to consistent top-10 finishers, and even qualified for the UEFA Cup in 2004-05. The great league positions were helped by some great transfers made by Allardyce; Jay-Jay Okocha, Ivan Campo, Stelios Giannakopoulos and Kevin Davies not only became fan-favourites, but were all signed on free-transfers.

Sam Allardyce has had a reasonably successful career, and it’s quite hard to pick a low point. Despite promoting West Ham from the Championship during 2011-12, and securing 10th place the following 2012-13 season, in 2013-14 plenty of West Ham fans made their displeasure of Allardyce’s tactics well-known. Banners with “Fat Sam Out, killing WHU” were shown in the final few games of 2014, despite finishing a stable 13th position. The club responded by employing Teddy Sheringham as a new attacking coach the following summer, to deploy a more attacking style of play.

6. VERDICT

In summary, looking at ‘panic seasons’ only, I will rank the five mangers:

Allardyce has saved 3 clubs out of 3 from relegation, with an average position of +3 Hodgson saved 2 clubs out of 2, with an average position change of +3.5 Hughes saved 2 clubs out of 2, with an average position change of +2 Pardew saved 1 club and relegated 1 club, with an average position change of +4 Redknapp has saved 1 club and relegated 2 clubs, with an average position change of -0.33

I therefore conclude Sam Allardyce as the most-effective ‘merry-go-round’ manager, and who any struggling team should look to appoint to save themselves from relegation.

Thank you for reading. If you find this article interesting, feel free to look at my recent article comparing the current Manchester City team to previous title-winning teams (including Arsenal’s Invincibles), or my article studying Romelu Lukaku’s form against ‘Top 6’ opposition. Also feel free to follow me on Twitter to keep up-to-date on all articles I produce.

7. BONUS

ARSENE WENGER

STEVE BRUCE

DAVID MOYES

NEIL WARNOCK

ALEX FERGUSON