There are now four candidates left in the NDP leadership race, but let’s be honest: Only two of them — Jagmeet Singh and Charlie Angus — have a credible path to victory in October.

Peter Julian saw the handwriting on the wall — and in his fundraising account — before withdrawing from the race last week. The former NDP House leader had plenty of name recognition and was the first candidate to enter the race. He also enjoyed the most caucus endorsements — from six fellow MPs, including three from Quebec. As a British Columbia MP he was aligned with the incoming NDP provincial government in his opposition to the twinning of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline to Vancouver, and was an articulate champion of progressive issues such as tuition-free post-secondary education.

But he had a surprisingly weak ground game, and it showed up in his fundraising, where he had by far the lowest numbers in the race.

“I’ve seen the graveyards of politicians who have invested a lot of their personal money,” Julian said in his remarkably honest withdrawal statement. “And many of those people, as you know, are still paying off huge debts that they underestimated. I’m not ready to impose that on myself or my family.”

That left Singh and Angus on the ballot with Niki Ashton and Guy Caron, with entries having closed last Monday. Ashton represents the unreservedly socialist wing of the party, while Caron is the lone Quebecer in the race. The remaining candidates met Tuesday night in a leaders’ debate in Saskatoon, and the party’s managers are undoubtedly hoping all four will be on stage for the three remaining debates, adding some interest to the race.

(It’s no accident that the NDP debates have looked so professionally staged compared to the Conservatives’ amateur-hour efforts. They’re being produced by former Jack Layton communications director Kathleen Monk, now a partner at Earnscliffe Strategy Group. She understands television.)

What’s rather surprising is that the leadership race isn’t moving the NDP’s poll numbers. What’s rather surprising is that the leadership race isn’t moving the NDP’s poll numbers.

But at the end of the day, it’s going to come down to Angus as the candidate of continuity and Singh as the candidate of change. Angus could well prove to be the people’s choice — a consensus second pick, as Andrew Scheer was in the Conservative race. Singh is definitely the candidate of the NDP establishment, which is to say the Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton wings of the party.

“Jagmeet represents generational change,” says a former top Layton strategist supporting Singh. “That’s what the party needs.”

At 38, the former deputy NDP leader at Queen’s Park has a striking personal narrative as a member of the Sikh community and son of immigrants from India. He grew up in Newfoundland and southern Ontario and became a criminal defence lawyer before entering politics at Queen’s Park. Along the way, he became fluent in French. He also became known as the ‘Dapper Dipper’ — the only New Democrat ever profiled in GQ.

A Mainstreet Research poll conducted last Wednesday from a sample of some 1,400 NDP donors and members put Angus at 23 per cent, Ashton at 20 per cent, with Singh and Julian tied at 7.5 per cent and Caron trailing at 6 per cent.

One veteran NDP strategist supporting Singh takes the Mainstreet numbers with a grain of salt.

“They capture only existing members, and there’s only about 60,000 of them. Singh is going to win this by signing up new members,” the strategist said. “He’s very well organized and he draws very good crowds.” At one riding association in Victoria last week, he drew an enthusiastic audience of more than 200 people, and this in the first week of July.

But time is not a friend of the Singh camp; the deadline for signing up new members is August 17, only five weeks away.

Meanwhile, Angus just keeps on keeping on as the candidate who says he “has your back”. He has his own compelling narrative — a former punk rocker and advocate of the homeless in the 1980s, now an author and champion of Indigenous peoples, particularly in his northern Ontario riding of Timmins-James Bay. While at 54 he doesn’t represent generational change, he has paid his dues — and then some — in a way New Dems appreciate.

What’s rather surprising is that the leadership race isn’t moving the NDP’s poll numbers. The weekly Nanos Research poll released Tuesday showed the Liberals back in majority territory at 40 per cent (up from 38 last week), the Conservatives at 33 per cent (up from 32) and the NDP stuck at the same number, 14 per cent. That’s six points below where they finished in the 2015 election.

It isn’t just New Democrats anxious to see their party claw its way back to the 20 per cent threshold before the 2019 election; the Conservatives need the NDP to take progressive votes from the Liberals to reduce them to minority standing.

A good leadership race should do that.

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