Troll post said: Once the coin has bottomed out, and everyone who wanted to sell has sold, they [chinese miners/jihad/chinese exchanges] will begin accumulating lots and lots of bitcoin cash. Click to expand...

AdrianX said: This is not in the best interests of the big holders, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash becomes more valuable with decentralization, centralizing ownership degrades value. Satoshi on the other hand has a set of cards he could play. I am not sure this is the time to short BTC but if he held a large amount i think it would be for an event like this.



I think that post is full of ignorance. If concerned hold you have nothing to lose.



anyway i was thinking of a scenario I wanted to post here that resulted in an initial 30% hashing power and a more optimistic outlook of my original view. I can't remember what it is. if i start dreaming again I'll take some metal notes and add them here.



to me BCC is looking more viable, still risky though. Click to expand...

AdrianX said: I defiantly think the big bank, settlement layer squad is in this game, most of the banking investors are lemmings, they follow the master plan centrally managed, when this goes sideways for them most are going to be lames to the slaughter. (they will stay the course) I honestly can't tell the timing on this it could be months, or years. but it will be epic.



the Big Banks are going to start coming in with Segwit, I believe some insiders know this and have dark trading pools set up for this. Click to expand...

AdrianX said: This is not in the best interests of the big holders, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash becomes more valuable with decentralization, centralizing ownership degrades value. Click to expand...

AdrianX said: That sounds pretty good. After meeting with nChain I wasn't sure they had the hashish power they talked about being aligned with someone who did.



Monitoring difficulty the 20% they talk about shrinks fast when 5-10% new hashpower is coming online every 2 weeks.



I was thinking your scenario may only play out when and if the 2X part is reneged on, other than that all is good I'd like a low BCC price to get new fiat investor in I've met 2.on reddis already so they're not as rare as unicorns.



What's the cause of the BTC spike?



I was thinking a lot of BTC used for trading moved to BCC and the BTC acquired by small blockers is not as liquid so there's a liquidity shortage. Thoughts?



I'm going to pull out some old trading accounts and cold storage coins. I've moved my trading coins into BCC on kraken but it's not enough for an expensive bottle of bubbly.



Also I'm a little concerned that kraken is like gox you put money in but you can't get thw BCC out. Click to expand...

july 31stSo slight update on how I think this might play out.I find it impossible to believe the house would be happy with Segwit or two persistent chains.Going from this, and the assumption that the house is angry at having to put up with this toxic stalling debate for the last 3 years. I think they might want to punish the small blockers who have the strongest opinions. Theres been a number of troll posts outlining the tactic. Demonstrates fear in their camp and rightly so.You wouldn't want long term holders or people who haven't been paying too much attention to the scaling debate, to get hurt, but give a big enough window for all the fanatics to jump the wrong way.If you look at the progress of https://coin.dance/blocks bip 141 is due to activate in ~10 days. NYA was strange like HK all over again, What if this was the secret plan all along, beat them at their own game? Keep the BCC fork alive say at 20% hashpower and let the rest activate Segwit, then jump ship and flood the small block chain until its unusable, bringing more hashpower over and death to SegwitCoin? (Quite likely they'll have to do and emergency PoW change)In other words I revise my 'might be over quite quickly to might be over shortly after BIP141 activation.Might be interesting to reverse the process and play what would big bank, settlement layer squad do?Aug 7I started writing another response here, a several days ago, but it got lost so I'll try again.So I posted the link to that troll post, only as an example of the strategy. As usual with their propaganda it's laced with irrational hatred and poorly reasoned logic. Nevertheless the strategy is sound, as I mentioned before. I've been calling it the Robin Hood game. Taking from the zealot rich and distributing to the intelligent poor. The house in this instant, is not trying to make short term gain, it's a long game. If you were smart and holding, lets say 50,000+ coins, you'd realise the real value in the system, is long term appreciation of price rather than claiming a larger portion of the pie.As you point out, it's the decentralisation of coins, that's of more value, especially if that involves moving them from those that don't understand the economics or want to harm Bitcoin to those that do and want to help.Expanding on the theory, that the House is playing Robin Hood, they almost certainly have control of this big HK pool (even the name might be a clue, Hostel ~ Hostile ??) Their first goal was to keep the BCC chain alive and play with the difficulty until it dropped down sufficiently. Phase 2 is to churn out blocks on the BCC chain fast enough so it gets the scheduled difficulty adjustment just before BIP141 activation. During this time weak handed fanatics are throwing away their 'worthless' BCC coins to the smart big block peasants. The House probably has an accord to support the price below a certain level, but not accumulate, and maybe they'll try teasing the small blockers into dumping with the odd price pump towards profitability levels 0.18?BIP141 locks in after 330 more blocks (479,808) then a further 2016 blocks till activation (481,823) or 16.3 days (23rd Aug). I predict by this time the BCC chain will have just had a difficulty adjustment and the price of BCC will have been walked up, so it's just below profitability. Thats when the fun begins, be sure to have a nice bottle of something ready.Phase 3 August 23rd/24th -This is the when the House plays its Royal flush. Segwit is activated and shortly after price of BCC rockets as the house dumps BTC and/or moves over all of it's controlled hashpower. CSW claimed to have 20%, we're not seeing all of that on the BCC chain yet, some might still be hidden? This would likely produce a cascade failure on the BTC chain, miners switching over in droves to mine on the relatively low difficulty BCC chain. BTC grinds to a halt, with full blocks and everyone selling BTC for BCC.Phase 4 the Tsu Zu, or crush your enemy completely. Any number of Peters Segwit attacks are done, plus likely 51% attacks. The legacy chain dies or is so crushed it can never recover. It's here your lambs to the slaughter comes in. One of the few defences other than PoW change, is to pump the BTC price but this will just be throwing good money after bad, and will be an epic failure. Controlled Media will be in full hate mode.Phase 5, back into the shadows, working towards radical on-chain scaling, and bringing Bitcoin to the other 5 billion, with rye smiles on the faces of all the big block crowd, after years of being abused.I rest my case.Pretty much just speculation here. I'm guessing the reasons are two fold, BCC sellers, rebuying on the BTC chain, and also it's one of the few defences left for the settlement layer squad, keep the price of BTC higher so it remains profitable to mine. Both scenarios are pretty foolish if you understand the economics of betting against the house.I must say, I was pretty dubious about this fork before it happened. Bitcoin is the longest PoW chain, and forking with anything less than 51% was suicide. Freetrader and Deadalnix have played a master stroke, with the special difficulty adjustment. It puts the two sides of the fork on equal footing, the difficulty reset, leaves the fulcrum able to tip the scales in favour of the economic majority. It's a little like cheating nakamoto consensus and wouldn't work in normal circumstances. These are not normal circumstances. It was clear that there was value ready to be unlocked in mining bigger blocks, the reset just exposes this in all it's glory."They vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism"Turns out, in a forking scenario, they can also vote with their Bitcoins, and any needed rules can be enforced by the 'honest' bitcoin owning majority, so long as a significant miner is willing to back them up.it's not over yet, but i'm very encouraged by these developments, and have diversified to the BCC chain accordingly ;-) 10-1 seems like an incredible opportunity.