–Every Presidential election has celebrities that threaten to leave the country if the ‘other guy’ wins.

– There’s no shortage of the rich and famous threatening to do so after Trump’s victory.

– They seldom go through with it. It’s a very expensive and difficult process.

I don’t enjoy politics. You’ve probably figured this out if you’ve read any of my political analysis. On one hand, it’s a blast doing prop bets on unusual topics. Setting odds on sporting events is definitely a skill but it can become very formulaic. I won’t go into a lecture on key numbers in the NFL but if you’ve ever looked at a sports book odds screen you know what I’m talking about. Political betting in particular can be very time consuming. My goal is to set a good line and not prove myself ‘right’ or my political adversary ‘wrong’. Even so, there’s a mountain of data to dig through and unlike sports data you then have to consider how the data was compiled and analyzed. On the other hand, I don’t enjoy the subject. At times it feels like I’m back in school trying to familiarize myself with an unfamiliar topic long enough to regurgitate it on a final exam. Maybe the best way to explain it–I enjoy setting odds on anything even topics I despise.

Like him or not, Trump’s win makes it even more difficult to set prices. Had Hillary won it would be pretty cut and dried. I’d set a few props on her cabinet appointments including the names of the usual assortment of Democratic Party political hacks. I’d set some numbers on the chance she’d get impeached, indicted or arrested. That would pretty much do it. Trump’s win is such a blank slate due more than anything else to his lack of previous political experience. This sets up a far wider range of possibilities and scenarios. Today’s topic is one of them.

EVERY ELECTION PRODUCES BUTTHURT CELEBRITIES

The ‘celebrity threatening to leave the country if the other candidate wins’ is a cliche at this point. It started to become *really* contrived after the hotly contested 2008 race between Al Gore and George Bush. Gore supporters were apoplectic that their guy lost. Unlike the current election, they at least had a somewhat legitimate gripe. Bush may not have “stolen” the election as hysterical Democrats liked to suggest but the Florida outcome that decided the presidency was separated by just a few thousand votes. With lawsuits, recounts, vote legitimacy challenges and ‘hanging chads’ vs. ‘dimpled chads’ the result could have definitely been different due to how the process was conducted. Ultimately, a court decision ended things–to use a sports metaphor it would be like a hotly disputed final play deciding the Super Bowl but the referees not coming up with a conclusive enough video angle to overturn the on-field decision.

There’s always been a cadre of butthurt and hypocritical celebrities that flitter around politics. They’re primarily Democratic partisans but there’s enough of them on the right that the ‘we’re leaving the country’ narrative continued through the Obama Presidency. The celebrities in question always try to justify it as being ‘about issues’ but the reality is that they just don’t like the ‘other guy’. If you want to see principled concern about issues politics is the last place to look. Case in point–during the Bush Administration you’d see ‘anti-war protests’ in many major cities. Thousands would flood the streets with signs that screeched ‘No War for Oil!’ and ‘Bush is a War Criminal’. For some reason, these protesters disappeared almost completely in late 2008 and haven’t been heard from since. Obama has continued Bush’s wars, tried to start a few new ones and given the world eight more years of the failed ‘War on Terror’. He’s droned children and bombed hospitals but for some inexplicable reason ‘anti-war protests’ have been completely non existent.

PARTISAN CELEBRITY CRYBABIES PITCHING A FIT

I’m obviously being facetious when I ‘wonder’ where the anti-war movement went. Like everything else in modern politics there’s no legitimate concern over ‘issues’. It’s a simple function of political partisanship. The left is ‘anti-war’ when a Republican is office or there’s some sort of political power that can be gained. As has been evident during the past eight years they exercise a double standard when a candidate they like is doing the killing. In their view, Bush was a ‘war criminal’ while they fawn over Obama treating him like a combination of a rock star and a super hero. The foreign policy of the two Presidents is indistinguishable at best. At the very worst, you can make a good case that Obama doubled down on Bush’s wars and surveillance. If nothing else, Bush didn’t run on a platform of ‘peace’ and then do the opposite. Obama did. No one on the left cared. Here’s something that’s a lock–you’ll see the ‘anti war movement’ start to reappear for ‘some inexplicable reason’ starting in late January.

The Republican right is no different though their concern is usually manifested elsewhere. They preach ‘small government’ and ‘personal liberty’ but had no trouble building a massive and intrusive national security infrastructure. They like to talk about ‘getting Washington off the back’ of average Americans but are obsessed with what consenting adults do in the bedroom and what bathroom they use. The two parties do agree on one thing. They believe that everyone should be allowed live in peace and treated with respect and dignity–as long as they support “their candidate” politically. Everyone else can go screw themselves and should be subjected to violence, imprisonment or marginalization.

There are a few ‘superstars’ on the list but the ‘I’m leaving if (insert candidate here) wins’ claim is often a broken record refrain from a washed up celebrity looking to get a little press. The same names ‘threaten to leave the country over issues’ time and time again and you can probably guess many of them–Ed Asner, Alan Alda, Martin Sheen, Whoopi Goldberg and Barbra Streisand come immediately to mind. There’s invariably a few younger ‘bandwagon jumpers’ looking to join the ranks of the ‘politically aware’. This year, for example, the brilliant political theorist Miley Cyrus has joined the fray. A couple of decades ago Rob Lowe fit this description–in fact, his infamous ‘sex tape’ was made while he was in Atlanta for the Democratic National Convention. He got caught on tape ‘trying to raise issue awareness’ with a couple of underage girls. I actually like Rob Lowe–he takes questions on his sex tape fiasco without flinching and answers them like a man. He strikes me a basically good guy but the whole video tape situation goes a long way to underscore the ‘seriousness’ of most politically active celebrities.

It’s still a head scratcher why this phenomenon is so common among celebrities. They certainly have a right to their political beliefs but it’s not like they’re making a logical case based on cogent analysis. If you’re *really* concerned about issues as opposed to political power you’re well aware that people don’t respond to this type of thing. The only way to change minds is to share ideas, not to display seething rage that you might not get your way at the end of a fair election. Maybe some think on a more practical level–that they can influence their most impressionable fans to unquestioningly adopt their beliefs. This definitely sounds like the rationale of a smug and self absorbed blowhard. It’s not very effective, however, and its doubtful that even the most popular celebrity brings in more than a handful of votes for their candidate. I learned long ago that you can’t base your artistic and media choices based on political preference. I enjoy Ted Nugent’s classic ‘Free For All’ album and the oeuvre of Rage Against the Machine. I find the politics of both hypocritical, simplistic and downright laughable. By the same token, basing your political ideology on a desire to emulate Miley Cyrus or Whoopi Goldberg is essentially a cry for psychiatric help.

SO WILL THESE CELEBRITIES LEAVE?

Probably not. It never happens. They didn’t leave when Gore lost. They didn’t leave when Bush got re-elected. The celebrities on the right didn’t leave when Obama won and got re-elected. History suggests that there won’t be a flood of Trump-hating Americans heading for the border no matter how vociferous their protestations. There will be even fewer celebrities. After a ‘mourning period’…err….’whining period’…they’ll forget they ever made this promise. A few will try to spin it to their favor like Ne-Yo who has already backtracked saying that’s he’s going to hang around to ‘irritate Trump’. Trump either doesn’t know who he is or would have the same reaction I did the first time I saw a picture of ‘Mr. Yo’: “Is that Sugar Shane Mosley?” Their political enemies will chortle about it for awhile and then life will go on. No matter how rich or how famous these celebrities may be they share a realization that most of us have experienced–moving is a pain in the ass. Some celebrities aren’t serious in the first place–I’ve got Mexican native comedian George Lopez on the list below but his ‘promise to leave’ is really a punch line: “He (Trump) won’t have to worry about immigration–we’ll all go back.” I go back and forth on Lopez. Sometimes I find him funny. Sometimes he comes off as a serious hack with lines like: “White people grew up in a red house.(Adopts exaggerated Mexican accent) Latinos we grew up in a ‘CASA ROJA!!'”

A more compelling reason–even the few celebrities who are serious about leaving quickly get a wakeup call when they talk to their business manager or accountant. Every blind patriot snorts to anyone with the temerity to criticize the USA to ‘love it or leave it’. It’s not quite that easy since like an abusive spouse the USA intentionally creates countless roadblocks to keep you ‘in the relationship’ and makes it ridiculously expensive to leave. Renouncing your US citizenship and gaining citizenship in another country is one option. Getting citizenship in another country is a difficult, expensive and erratic process no matter how rich you are. Plus you’ll be paying US taxes for several years along with taxes in your new country. There’s also the option of living abroad on a ‘work visa’. The process is easier but the tax burden is similar. There are other considerations–it’s a tough commute with much of the film and TV industry in California and they might lose gigs as they fall ‘out of the loop’. There’s also the problem that their fans will turn on them–hurting their bottom line and imperiling their career. The sum total is that few, if any, celebrities have the ‘conviction of character’ that takes precedence over money and fame.



POST ELECTION CELEBRITY EMIGRATION SPECIALS

All bets are action. A celebrity will have been deemed to have ‘left the country’ if they take up legal citizenship or residency on a long term visa outside of the United States before 12/31/17. Celebrity must additionally legally renounce their US citizenship or divest any US based residences.

Will Chelsea Handler leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +1400

No: -2150

Will Ne-Yo leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +2400

No: -3500

Will Barbara Streisand leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +2000

No: -3500

Will Samuel L. Jackson leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +3300

No: -4500

Will Cher leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +6600

No: -15000

Will Miley Cyrus leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +6600

No: -15000

Will Rosie O’Donnell leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +6600

No: -15000

Will Whoopi Goldberg leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +6600

No: -15000

Will Rev. Al Sharpton leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +4500

No: -10000

Will George Lopez leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +4500

No: -10000

Will Neve Campbell leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Yes: +4500

No: -10000

Of the 11 celebrities listed in the propositions above how many will leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Over .5: +1250

Under .5: -2500

Of the 11 celebrities listed in the propositions above how many will leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Over 1.5: +1750

Under 1.5: -3250

Of the 11 celebrities listed in the propositions above how many will leave the United States in protest of the Donald Trump Presidency before 12/31/17?

Over 2.5: +2500

Under 2.5: -4500