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Added up until 2030, that would shrink gross domestic product by about 1.29 per cent, costing the economy roughly $1.2 billion. That’s much less than the $16 billion forecast by the 2018 study, which was done by the University of Regina’s Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities.

“They were looking for one that fit their narrative better,” said Meili. “They had one that didn’t, so they buried it.”

But Duncan said his ministry held back the study because it had “concerns” about the data Navius used, and the way it grouped together the mining sector.

“It used national data rather than provincially specific data,” he said, adding that potash was not considered separately from uranium and coal.

He called that “a flaw in the methodology.”

“At the end of the day, we would certainly make it available if people are interested in it,” Duncan said. “But we had enough concerns that we decided as a ministry not to post it on our website.”

Jotham Peters, the lead researcher listed on the report, said he could not comment directly on those criticisms, due to a confidentiality clause. But he argued that Navius’s model provides an “excellent representation of Saskatchewan’s economy.”

“Our models are based on provincial data, where it is publicly available,” he said. “The public version of our Saskatchewan model, for example, has been extensively calibrated to GHG emissions as reported in Canada’s National Inventory Report. These data provide extensive detail at a provincial level.”