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It was nearly a year ago that the Liberal party hit its peak. According to polling aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com, July 2014 was the best month on record for the Liberals since at least 2009, with the party enjoying a near-10-point lead over the trailing Conservatives (followed by the NDP, led by Tom Whatshisface).

Then the Liberals took a tumble — not a swift, dramatic fall, mind you, but a lethargic series of summersaults, which is almost always worse. A rapid dive could, theoretically, be explained away as an anomaly: an acute, adverse reaction to a particular position or policy. But this was certainly not that. Justin Trudeau had once been the shot of epinephrine the Liberals so desperately needed, but the effect was not just wearing off, it was leading the party in the opposite direction.

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At first, it was a couple of silly gaffes — an ill-timed joke from Trudeau about Prime Minister Stephen Harper “trying to whip out our CF-18s and show how big they are,” for example. Then the Liberals found themselves on the wrong side of public opinion in opposing Canada’s mission against the Islamic State in Iraq, though this wasn’t fatal. Then came a few more mistakes: Trudeau said Canada should send winter clothing to starving Syrian refugees who had been violently and brutally forced out of their homes. Oops. Then came the news that — surprise! — Eve Adams was defecting from the Tories and joining the Liberals — an announcement that Trudeau revealed proudly, and deafly, to snickers from across the aisle. Whoops.