There a few signs of relief in terms of price pressure on PV cell and module manufacturers expected in 2016. This was one of the findings of the latest ITRPV, produced by the German production equipment industrial association (VDMA), released today.

The ITRPV document finds that PV manufacturing capacity totaled some 60 GW in 2015, with capacity expansions currently underway likely to see that increase in 2016.

The pressure on cell and more painful[ly] on module manufacturing will persist [in 2016], the Roadmap concludes. This, it argues, necessitates continuing cost reductions in terms of production consumables and materials.

The ITRPV concludes that these cost reductions can be achieved by increasing Overall Equipment Efficeincy (OEE) of the existing installed capacity; more efficiency use of materials; the introduction of specialized end products for specific niches; and improved module power and cell efficiency on a cost-neutral basis.

Looking to the PV learning curve, the ITRPV finds that average crystalline silicon (c-Si) module prices declined from US$062/Wp in 2014 to $0.58/Wp in 2015, corresponding to a manufacturing capacity of 39.3 GWp and 50 GWp respectively.

Production processes

Turning to specific production processes, the ITRPV concludes that in 2015 slurry-based wafering processes remain dominant, with well over 90% market share in multicrystalline production and around 65% in mono, that a shift towards diamond wire is anticipated.

In monocystalline wafer production, the ITPRPV expects 2016 to be the year in which more than 50% of all wafering will deploy diamond wire. In multi production that is not expected to occur until 2023.

Turning to wafer thickness, the seventh Roadmap concludes that previous iterations of the document had overestimated the uptake of thin c-Si wafers. The roadmap concludes that wafer thickness of 180µm has remained the preferred thickness, with that likely to remain true in 2016. Mono wafer thickness is expected to decline to 160µm in 2018, however multi only to follow suit until after 2020. Diamond wire deployment is seen to a key for the deployment of very thin c-Si wafers.