London (CNN Business) Britain has a stark economic choice to make in 2019: Recession or relief.

The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on March 29. Crashing out of the bloc without an exit agreement would result in turmoil; striking a deal would minimize damage to the economy.

UBS economists led by Arend Kapteyn say their outlook for the UK economy is "binary." The disruption to trade caused by a disorderly Brexit would "plunge the UK into recession," they warn. A deal would postpone difficult decisions and provide certainty to business.

Prime Minister Theresa May has negotiated a divorce deal with the European Union, but it faces long odds in parliament. UK lawmakers are expected to vote on the agreement in January.

Brexit-fueled recession ...

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