Our blockbuster midfield, aided by solid returns from our strike force, paid dividends in Gameweek 11 as the Bookies’ Advantage squad romped home with 74 points, comfortably beating the gameweek average of 52. Roberto Firmino (15), Sadio Mane (14) and Kevin de Bruyne (8) all obliged from the middle of the park, while captain Sergio Aguero (12), Diego Costa (9) and Charlie Austin (8) all contributed up front.

With November’s international break now done and dusted, read on as we present our customary analysis of the defensive and attacking odds from bookmakers across the internet in preparation for Gameweek 12…

Remember to check out our new Beat the Bookies contest at the end of the post!

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Chance of a clean sheet Chelsea 2.05 49% West Brom 2.3 43% Tottenham 2.3 43% Man City 2.5 40% Everton 2.5 40% Sunderland 2.7 37% Stoke 3.05 33% Liverpool 3.1 32% Leicester 3.2 31% Watford 3.4 29% Man Utd 3.5 29% Arsenal 3.55 28% Hull 3.9 26% Burnley 4 25% Bournemouth 4.05 25% Southampton 5 20% Middlesbrough 6.5 15% West Ham 7 14% Swansea 7.1 14% Crystal Palace 7.7 13%

Chelsea travel to the Riverside in Sunday’s sole game, with the bookies affording Antonio Conte’s men a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, the highest in the Premier League this weekend. It is hard to disagree with the odds compilers, given that the Blues have registered 5 shutouts on the trot, along with the fact that opponents Middlesbrough are the joint-lowest home scorers in the league (5 goals in 5 games). Left wingback Marcos Alonso has chalked up a goal and an assist in the 5 games he has started this term and his attacking threat sees him make our starting XI.

Home clashes against Burnley and West Ham see West Brom and Tottenham (both 43%) share second place in the bookies’ defensive ranks for Gameweek 12. Whilst the Baggies haven’t been at their usual defensive best this season (just 1 clean sheet in 5 at The Hawthorns), Burnley’s away record of a single goal scored in 4 road trips (the worst in the league) gives us significant cause for optimism. Tottenham, meanwhile, have only conceded 2 goals at White Hart Lane so far and 6 overall, ranking them top of the league in both metrics, and the hosting of London rivals West Ham, who have mustered just 4 goals in their last 6 outings, is unlikely to trouble the best defence in the division. Ben Foster provides a reliable, and cheap, pair of hands between the sticks for Tony Pulis’ men, whilst Danny Rose has notched a goal and an assist in 7 outings thus far. Both start for our squad this weekend.

Manchester City and Everton (both 40%) share fourth place for defensive prospects for Gameweek 12, but it is City who pip the Toffees to a place in our back line courtesy of the fact their defenders are available at the same price and have conceded fewer goals to date (10 vs 13) during this campaign. A trip to Selhurst Park, where Palace have blanked twice in 5 games this term, offers hope that Pep Guardiola’s side can earn a second successive away clean sheet. John Stones provides the best value entry route into the Citizens defence (£5.0m) and takes his place in our starting XI.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Sunderland’s budget friendly shot stopper Jordan Pickford (£4.0m – 37%) as our backup keeper, with Stoke’s Erik Pieters (£4.5m – 33%) and Swansea’s Stephen Kingsley (£4.0m – 14%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from West Ham (14% – away to Tottenham), Swansea (14% – away to Everton) and Crystal Palace (13% – home to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer odds Chance of scoring Sergio Aguero 1.82 55% Romelu Lukaku 1.9 53% Diego Costa 2 50% Harry Kane 2 50% Kelechi Iheanacho 2.5 40% Jermain Defoe 2.55 39% Eden Hazard 2.6 38% Son Heung-Min 2.6 38% Salomon Rondon 2.6 38% Daniel Sturridge 2.62 38% Kevin de Bruyne 2.8 36% Charlie Austin 2.9 34% Yannick Bolasie 2.9 34% Troy Deeney 2.95 34% Sadio Mane 3 33% Wilfried Bony 3 33% Roberto Firmino 3.05 33% Islam Slimani 3.05 33% Jamie Vardy 3.05 33% Kevin Mirallas 3.1 32% Callum Wilson 3.13 32% Alexis Sanchez 3.2 31% Raheem Sterling 3.2 31% Erik Lamela 3.2 31% Nacer Chadli 3.25 31% Philippe Coutinho 3.3 30% Marko Arnautovic 3.3 30% Christian Eriksen 3.3 30% Marcus Rashford 3.35 30% Odion Ighalo 3.35 30% Ross Barkley 3.35 30% Pedro 3.4 29% Gerard Deulofeu 3.5 29% Joshua King 3.7 27% Christian Benteke 3.75 27% Nathan Redmond 3.75 27% Theo Walcott 3.75 27% Dieumerci Mbokani 3.75 27% Andre Gray 3.8 26% Riyad Mahrez 4 25% Borja Baston 4 25% Wayne Rooney 4.1 24% Joe Allen 4.3 23% Dusan Tadic 4.33 23% Duncan Watmore 4.33 23% Sam Vokes 4.5 22% Gylfi Sigurdsson 4.5 22% Alvaro Negredo 4.6 22% Andre Ayew 4.75 21% Dimitri Payet 4.8 21% Junior Stanislas 4.95 20% James Milner 5 20% Cristhian Stuani 5 20% Alex Iwobi 5.1 20% Robert Snodgrass 5.3 19% Michail Antonio 5.5 18% Mesut Ozil 5.55 18% Ilkay Gundogan 5.6 18% Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 5.8 17% Etienne Capoue 6 17% Andros Townsend 6.5 15% Roberto Pereyra 7 14% Wilfried Zaha 7.5 13% Ryan Mason 7.5 13% Adama Traore 8.5 12%

Ahead of a trip to the capital, Sergio Aguero tops the bookies’ attacking rankings with a 55% chance of scoring against Crystal Palace. The Eagles are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season, and with the diminutive Argentine having already notched 3 Premier League braces on his travels, Aguero dons our captain’s armband for the weekend.

Joining Aguero up front in our starting XI are Everton’s Romelu Lukaku (53%) and Chelsea’s Diego Costa (50%), who edges out Harry Kane (also 50%) based on his cheaper price and better form. Lukaku will have the chance to build on a strong start to the season (7 goals and 3 assists in 9 starts) when he welcomes Swansea to Goodison Park on Saturday, with the Swans having conceded 3 goals in both of their last 2 away games. Costa, meanwhile, remains the league’s top scorer on 9 goals, but will need to continue his top form this Sunday against a resolute Middlesbrough defence that have conceded just twice in their last 4 outings.

After spending big up front and in defence, our budget is a little tighter in midfield this week, but we still find room for Eden Hazard (38%), who is currently the top scoring player in FPL with 82 points following 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 outings. Whilst the aforementioned Boro defence have proven strong of late, the Chelsea juggernaut is so powerful at this time that we decide to triple up on assets from the South West London club for Gameweek 12. Heung-Min Son (38%) is our second pick in the middle of the park. Tottenham’s South Korean attacker welcomes West Ham, who have the joint-third worst away defence in the division (11 goals conceded in 5), to White Hart Lane on Saturday, and will be looking to return to the form that saw him card 4 goals and 2 assists between Gameweeks 4 and 7, having blanked in his 4 outings since.

Yannick Bolasie (34%) and Kevin Mirallas (32%) complete our starting XI and form part of an Everton attacking triumvirate ahead of their plum home fixture against Swansea. DR Congo international Bolasie, so often criticised for being inconsistent, has begun to show signs of consistency after producing attacking returns in 5 of his last 8 appearances (1 goal, 4 assists). Mirallas, meanwhile, started the season strongly with a goal and 2 assists in his first 4 games, but has failed to produce any attacking returns since. Nevertheless, the bookies rate his chances this weekend given the recent frailty of his opponents on their travels. Etienne Capoue (17%) is again selected for our bench, with his £4.5m price tag and security of starts important, even though his early season form has evaporated.

The bookmakers also fancy the chances of Belgian supremo Kevin de Bruyne (36%), along with Liverpool’s red hot duo of Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino (both 33%), but all 3 are unfortunately too heavy on the budget and fail to make our XV.

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