For immediate release Thursday, March 30, 2017 6 pages

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Trump Loses Support in Garden State

New Jerseyans See Benefits of Keeping Rather than Dumping ACA

Fairleigh Dickinson University, March 30, 2017 – President Trump’s approval decreased in the Garden State over the past few months, and remains hampered by a job approval rating that is epically low for a new administration. The most recent survey of adults from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Donald Trump upside down in a big way, and Garden State residents largely convinced that the Affordable Care Act has improved the lives of many in New Jersey.

Donald Trump has the support of 28 percent, down from 37 percent in January. Sixty-one percent disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. Majorities of Democrats (88%) and independents (57%) disapprove, with Trump getting the most support from his fellow Republicans (72%). Men and women differ significantly in regard to the level of disapproval they have for the president’s job performance, with women more likely to say no to Trump than men. And although majorities of whites and non-whites disapprove, non-whites say they disapprove more than whites to the tune of 28 percentage points (80 versus 52 percent, respectively).

“For a guy who has spent a lot of time at his New Jersey golf course, the president has a lot of ground to cover if he’s going to reverse the numbers and have more supporters than detractors in New Jersey,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind. “The past month has been difficult for the president, and Garden State residents are responding in kind.”

President Trump is, however, polling slightly better than New Jersey’s two-term Republican governor, Chris Christie, who enjoys the support of only 20 percent of his constituents.

Today fewer respondents say the country is headed in the right direction, as compared with what the FDU poll found in January. And, as with the president’s job approval, right direction/wrong track numbers remain upside down. Fifty-eight percent say the country is headed down the wrong track, up from 51 percent in January. Thirty-one percent think the country is on solid footing, down from 39 percent in January. Republicans are, by far, the group with the highest satisfaction with the country’s health under President Trump’s leadership.

With the defeat of the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, Garden State residents are not likely to be too disappointed. Even though the majority of Garden Staters with health insurance get it from their employer or their spouse’s employer (63%), and are thus not direct beneficiaries of the ACA, most (67%) believe the ACA helped the lives of those who were previously uninsured before the act was passed. When asked if the act helped those like themselves, 39 percent agreed, with 22 percent who believe the act was harmful, and 37 percent who believe the act made no difference to their lives.

Millennials are among the most likely to believe the ACA has benefitted both themselves personally (51%) and those without insurance before the act’s passage (73%). The same is true for women as compared to men, and non-whites as compared with whites. Among both groups, women and non-white respondents are significantly more likely to perceive the benefits of the act, both for themselves personally and for those who were previously uninsured. Partisan differences also prevail, with Democrats significantly more likely to perceive the act’s benefits as opposed to its limitations as compared with Republicans and independents.

“Obamacare was never a slam dunk in New Jersey, but there’s enough support for the act to warrant concern should it ever be repealed without an adequate replacement. This is especially true as it pertains to the significant funding the state receives to provide insurance for the poor through Medicaid’s expansion,” said Jenkins.

On the issue of Medicaid funding, when asked if the federal government should continue its assistance to the state in order to cover the uninsured among the poor and working poor, 83 percent say it should. Strong support exists for this element of the ACA across all demographics considered.

“As with most things in politics, taking something away is a lot harder than giving it to begin with. With millions in savings for the state since the act’s passage, in addition to the swell of those joining the ranks of the insured, federal assistance will continue to trump ideology when it comes to support for Medicaid expansion,” said Jenkins.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone March 22-26, 2017 among a random sample of 816 adults in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect.

Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 448 interviews were conducted on landlines and 368 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F. PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Tables

First, do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Approve 28% 5 23 72 34 22 37 10 27 29 18 31 32 Disapprove 61% 88 57 16 56 66 52 80 59 62 70 55 60 DK (vol) 9% 7 15 10 9 10 10 9 12 7 10 12 5 Refused (vol) 2% 1 4 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2

In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track [rotate]? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Right direction 31% 8 30 74 37 25 38 17 29 32 24 35 32 Wrong track 58% 82 54 18 53 63 51 71 58 58 61 55 59 DK (vol) 9% 8 13 6 7 11 9 10 10 8 13 8 7 Refused (vol) 2% 2 4 2 3 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 2

In your opinion, has the Affordable Care Act, or as its more commonly known ObamaCare helped, hurt, or made no difference to the lives of people like yourself? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Helped 39% 60 27 9 34 43 33 50 37 40 51 33 34 Hurt 22% 6 24 48 26 18 27 12 21 23 18 27 21 No difference 37% 33 43 40 38 36 38 34 38 36 29 37 41 DK/Ref (vol) 3% 1 6 3 2 3 2 4 4 2 2 3 4

In your opinion, has the Affordable Care Act, or as its more commonly known ObamaCare helped, hurt, or made no difference to the lives of people like yourself? Type of insurance held by respondent Your spouse of your employer Health plan or insurance company or a state or federal marketplace Public programs, such as Medicare or Medicaid Helped 35 60 33 Hurt 24 18 17 No difference 39 19 46 DK/Ref (vol) 2 3 3

In your opinion, has the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, helped, hurt, or made no difference to the lives of those who were previously uninsured before the act was passed? PID Gender Race Education Age39% All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Helped 67% 89 60 35 63 71 64 75 65 69 73 65 66 Hurt 15% 6 15 32 16 14 17 10 17 14 11 17 17 No difference 8% 3 13 15 11 6 9 6 10 7 7 10 7 DK/Ref (vol) 9% 1 12 18 10 8 10 8 8 10 9 8 10

In your opinion, has the Affordable Care Act, or as its more commonly known ObamaCare helped, hurt, or made no difference to the lives of those who were previously uninsured before the act was passed? Type of insurance held by respondent Your spouse of your employer Health plan or insurance company or a state or federal marketplace Public programs, such as Medicare or Medicaid Helped 68 77 60 Hurt 14 15 16 No difference 8 4 13 DK/Ref (vol) 10 3 11

Regardless of what happens to the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, should the federal government continue or discontinue [rotate] its help in paying for health insurance for the poor in New Jersey through the expansion of Medicaid ? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Continue 83% 97 75 64 79 87 78 92 83 83 85 82 83 Discontinue 11% 2 10 29 15 7 15 4 11 11 9 13 12 DK (vol) 5% 1 11 6 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 6 4 Refused (vol) 1% 0 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 2

Regardless of what happens to the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, should the federal government continue or discontinue [rotate] its help in paying for health insurance for the poor in New Jersey through the expansion of Medicaid ? Type of insurance held by respondent Your spouse of your employer Health plan or insurance company or a state or federal marketplace Public programs, such as Medicare or Medicaid Continue 82 84 85 Discontinue 11 12 9 No difference 6 3 4 DK/Ref (vol) 1 1 2

Do you have health insurance? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Yes 96% 96 96 96 94 98 98 93 95 97 91 98 99 No 4% 3 4 4 5 2 2 7 5 3 9 2 1 DK (vol) 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Refused (vol) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

How do you obtain your health insurance? Is it…? PID Gender Race Education Age All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White Non-white HS/Some college College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ Your or spouse employer 63 65 56 65 64 63 63 64 53 71 67 80 38 Health plan or insurance company or a state or federal marketplace 13 13 19 10 13 13 13 14 18 10 19 11 12 Public programs, such as Medicare or Medicaid 19 18 22 21 19 21 21 18 25 16 13 7 44 Other 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 5 Don’t know (vol) 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 Refused (vol) 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0

Question wording and order

US1. First, do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

1 Approve

2 Disapprove

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

1/17 3/17 Approve 37 28 Disapprove 50 61

US2. In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track [rotate]?

1 Right direction

2 Wrong track

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

1/17 3/17 Right direction 39 31 Wrong track 51 58

US3 In your opinion, has the Affordable Care Act, or as its more commonly known ObamaCare helped, hurt, or made no difference to the lives of people like yourself?

1 Helped

2 Hurt

3 No difference

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

US4 In your opinion, has the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, helped, hurt, or made no difference to the lives of those who were previously uninsured before the act was passed?

1 Helped

2 Hurt

3 No difference

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

US5 Regardless of what happens to the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, should the federal government continue or discontinue [rotate] its help in paying for health insurance for the poor in New Jersey through the expansion of Medicaid ?

1 Continue

2 Discontinue

3 No difference

8 DK

9 Refused (vol)

Sample characteristics (weighted)