THINGS could not get much worse for Brian Cowen. The Irish prime minister no longer leads his political party, he is unable to reshuffle his cabinet and he now presides over a minority government whose life expectancy is numbered in weeks following the departure yesterday of the junior coalition partner, the Green Party (pictured). He may not even stand for re-election to parliament.



Mr Cowen's party, Fianna Fáil, will re-elect his successor as party leader on Wednesday. It will then begin preparing in earnest for a general election, which after having been called for March 11th last week now appears likely to take place on February 25th, following pressure on the government from the opposition parties to agree to a timetable for the rapid passage of legislation to implement the austerity measures outlined in last December's budget. These are required to meet the terms of an €85 billion ($113 billion) bail-out agreed with the European Union and the IMF a month earlier.



Not the least striking element of the extraordinary political drama to have gripped Ireland in the past ten days is the prospect of the ruling party losing more than half its seats at the election. One recent poll found just 8% support for Fianna Fáil, traditionally seen as the "natural" party of Irish government.



How did we get here? On January 18th, Mr Cowen won a vote of confidence in his leadership of the party, a poll he called to silence his internal critics. But to little avail. Days later his ill-judged attempt to replace six ministers—all of whom were stepping down from parliament and had obligingly resigned early to facilitate a cabinet reshuffle—backfired in spectacular fashion. The botched reshuffle infuriated the public and was vetoed by the Greens. Even Mr Cowen's party colleagues were dismayed by what many saw as a cynical and desperate effort to boost the party's diminishing electoral prospects.



Faced with renewed calls for his resignation, Mr Cowen stepped down as Fianna Fáil leader on Saturday, while remaining as head of government. This precipitated the Green withdrawal from the government. The party has nonetheless agreed to support the passage of the finance bill, from the opposition benches, before the election.



Attention is now likely to turn to the Fianna Fáil leadership contest. Micheál Martin, the foreign minister, has emerged as the favourite to take over from Mr Cowen, despite the failure of his recent challenge to the prime minister. A week ago his leadership hopes seemed damaged by defeat, and Brian Lenihan, the finance minister, was seen as the main beneficiary.

But Mr Lenihan may have lost backbench support amid claims that he publicly backed Mr Cowen while privately encouraging dissent. Mr Lenihan's emphatic denials of duplicity have failed to repair the damage. Still, he will be battling to win a poisoned chalice: within a month the new Fianna Fáil leader will almost certainly find him- or (less likely) herself leading a severely depleted and demoralised party in opposition.