November 11, 2019 - Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 54 Percent Definitely Wouldn't Vote For Bloomberg In Primary

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With less than 100 days to go, former Vice President Joe Biden has an edge in New Hampshire's Democratic primary for president, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll released today. Biden receives support from 20 percent of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, with Senator Elizabeth Warren getting 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg getting 15 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders at 14 percent.





Rep. Tulsi Gabbard gets 6 percent, businessman Andrew Yang gets 4 percent, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Tom Steyer are each at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent, and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided.





Independent voters, known as "undeclared voters" in New Hampshire, who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary are divided in their top choice. Biden receives 16 percent support among these voters, while Sanders and Buttigieg get 14 percent each, and Warren and Gabbard receive 10 percent each. Among registered Democrats who are likely to vote in the primary, Biden has 25 percent, Warren has 24 percent, Buttigieg receives 16 percent, and Sanders gets 14 percent.





"New Hampshire has mountains. Iowa has plains. They couldn't be more different except for the results of the last two Quinnipiac University polls, which both show 4 candidates in the top tier. Although Biden has a slight lead in the Granite State, it's far from rock solid, and both states are clearly still up for grabs," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.





In a separate question, only 2 percent of likely Democratic primary voters say they would definitely vote for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg if he got into the race, while 37 percent say they would consider voting for him, and 54 percent say they definitely would not vote for him.





"If he truly is in, there is a lot of work to do. But with vast resources to draw from, Michael Bloomberg's nascent campaign could morph from 'under construction' to 'full steam ahead' in a New York minute," added Malloy.





There is a lot of potential for movement in the Democratic primary as 61 percent of those who express a preference say they might change their mind before the primary, while 38 percent say their mind is made up. Sanders voters are the most certain in their choice as 57 percent of Sanders voters say their mind is made up, compared to 43 percent of Biden voters, 29 percent of Warren voters, and 24 percent of Buttigieg voters.





Most likely voters are either "extremely excited" (22 percent) or "very excited" (34 percent) about the candidate they are supporting, while 33 percent are "mildly excited" and 10 percent say they are "not that excited." Sanders voters are the most excited, as 44 percent of his voters say they are extremely excited to support his candidacy, compared to 21 percent of Warren voters, 19 percent of Biden voters, and 12 percent of Buttigieg voters.





Nearly one-third (32 percent) of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters say the most important candidate quality in deciding who to vote for is "someone who can win the general election," followed by "honesty" at 24 percent, "someone who cares about people like you" at 18 percent, "good leadership skills" at 14 percent, and only 7 percent saying "experience in public office."





Perceived electability is helping Biden, as he leads the primary with 31 percent of the vote among those who say that electability is the most important candidate quality to them. Warren gets 20 percent of these "electability" voters, while Buttigieg receives 19 percent, and Sanders gets 6 percent.





Sanders does better among those who care most about honesty, as he gets 18 percent of the vote, while Biden and Buttigieg each get 14 percent, and Warren gets 13 percent. Sanders is also the top choice for people looking for a candidate who cares about them with 25 percent support, with Warren at 13 percent, Biden getting 12 percent, and Buttigieg and Yang each at 9 percent. Buttigieg is at the top for those who most want a candidate with good leadership skills, winning 24 percent of the vote, with Warren at 19 percent, Gabbard at 14 percent, Biden at 10 percent, and Sanders at 8 percent.





Health care is the most important issue to 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with climate change at 25 percent and the economy at 12 percent.





From November 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,134 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. The question on Michael Bloomberg was added on November 8 and was asked of 636 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Email poll@quinnipiac.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

LIKELY VOTERS...................................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTY REG COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No A lot 66% 70% 73% 62% 73% 61% 64% 68% 68% 64% Some 22 25 16 24 21 23 23 21 23 23 Only a little 8 5 7 10 5 11 10 7 6 11 None at all 3 - 5 4 2 5 3 4 2 2 DK/NA - - - - - - - - - - AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. DENSITY............ 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ City Suburb Rural A lot 47% 56% 73% 82% 62% 70% 67% 67% 66% 66% Some 23 33 22 14 22 20 25 21 23 22 Only a little 19 8 4 3 9 7 7 7 9 8 None at all 10 4 1 - 6 2 1 5 2 3 DK/NA - - - 1 - - - - - -

2. If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro, Gabbard, Delaney, Buttigieg, Yang, Williamson, Messam, Bennet, Bullock, Sestak, or Steyer?

LIKELY VOTERS...................................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTY REG COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 20% 9% 21% 24% 25% 16% 19% 21% 20% 21% Sanders 14 22 21 8 14 14 19 11 11 17 Harris 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 - Warren 16 35 21 10 24 10 11 20 20 13 Booker 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - Klobuchar 3 2 2 4 2 4 2 4 4 3 Castro 1 3 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1 Gabbard 6 2 2 9 1 10 9 4 5 6 Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 15 11 21 15 16 14 13 17 21 11 Yang 4 5 1 4 3 5 8 1 3 5 Williamson - - - - - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Bennet 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 5 DK/NA 14 5 6 18 7 20 13 15 10 17 AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. DENSITY............ 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ City Suburb Rural Biden 12% 16% 19% 31% 25% 19% 17% 21% 20% 20% Sanders 29 19 9 8 19 13 14 16 14 14 Harris 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Warren 19 13 19 15 13 18 18 16 16 16 Booker - 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 - 1 Klobuchar - 1 4 7 1 4 4 2 4 3 Castro 1 2 - - - 1 - - 1 1 Gabbard 4 8 8 3 3 8 7 4 6 7 Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 9 19 17 16 11 14 22 14 14 17 Yang 12 3 2 1 5 5 4 2 7 3 Williamson - - - - - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer 2 1 4 5 4 4 1 4 4 3 DK/NA 11 13 15 10 17 9 10 16 12 14 MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q3 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q4 Win Good Health Climate 2020 leader Honest Cares Econ care change Biden 31% 10% 14% 12% 17% 22% 18% Sanders 6 8 18 25 4 21 18 Harris 2 1 - - - 1 2 Warren 20 19 13 13 13 16 22 Booker 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 Klobuchar 5 3 4 1 3 4 4 Castro - - - 2 - 2 - Gabbard 2 14 8 6 14 3 2 Delaney - - - - - - - Buttigieg 19 24 14 9 11 13 19 Yang 1 1 6 9 13 1 3 Williamson - - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - - Bennet 1 1 - 1 - 1 - Bullock - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - Steyer 3 3 4 3 3 3 5 DK/NA 8 14 17 18 20 11 5

2a. (If candidate chosen q2) How excited are you to support [candidate chosen]; are you extremely excited, very excited, mildly excited, or not that excited?

LIKELY VOTERS............................................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2....................................... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2............................. Tot Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Extremely excited 22% 19% 44% 21% 12% Very excited 34 30 23 44 45 Mildly excited 33 35 22 32 38 Not that excited 10 14 8 4 4 DK/NA 2 2 2 - -

2b. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

LIKELY VOTERS............................................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2....................................... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2............................. Tot Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Made up 38% 43% 57% 29% 24% Might change 61 56 41 70 73 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 3

2c. (If candidate chosen q2) Who is your second choice?

LIKELY VOTERS............................................. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2............................. Tot Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Biden 10% - 9% 12% 28% Sanders 12 16 - 27 6 Harris 3 5 2 7 3 Warren 17 20 45 - 25 Booker 2 3 3 3 4 Klobuchar 4 9 - 2 9 Castro - - - 2 - Gabbard 2 1 5 1 1 Delaney - 1 - - - Buttigieg 13 20 7 28 - Yang 4 1 8 3 3 Williamson - - - - 1 Messam - - - - - Bennet - 1 - - - Bullock - - 1 - - Sestak - - - - - Steyer 3 3 4 3 6 No first choice 14 - - - - DK/NA 15 20 16 13 12

3. Which of these is the most important candidate quality to you in deciding who to vote for in the Democratic primary for president: someone who can win the general election in 2020, good leadership skills, honesty, someone who cares about people like you, or experience in public office?

LIKELY VOTERS...................................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTY REG COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Win 2020 election 32% 39% 39% 28% 43% 23% 29% 35% 43% 24% Good leadership 14 9 11 17 11 17 12 15 16 11 Honesty 24 19 19 27 18 28 27 21 19 26 Cares about people 18 21 17 18 18 18 22 16 13 24 Public office exp 7 7 10 6 6 8 5 8 5 10 DK/NA 5 5 4 3 5 5 5 5 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. DENSITY............ 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ City Suburb Rural Win 2020 election 17% 28% 41% 43% 30% 34% 38% 30% 35% 32% Good leadership 15 15 13 13 7 14 20 15 15 13 Honesty 28 16 23 25 25 25 23 22 19 26 Cares about people 30 31 12 7 23 18 11 17 23 17 Public office exp 8 5 6 7 12 5 4 10 4 7 DK/NA 2 5 4 5 3 5 4 6 4 5

4. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the Democratic primary for president: the economy, immigration, health care, taxes, climate change, education, foreign policy, or gun policy?

LIKELY VOTERS...................................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTY REG COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 12% 3% 6% 17% 5% 17% 16% 9% 13% 11% Immigration 5 3 2 7 4 6 5 5 3 5 Health care 28 35 30 26 34 24 24 32 29 30 Taxes 4 2 2 6 3 6 6 3 3 5 Climate change 25 38 33 19 33 19 23 27 28 25 Education 7 5 9 6 5 8 9 5 6 7 Foreign policy 7 6 9 7 6 9 8 7 9 6 Gun policy 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 DK/NA 7 4 4 7 6 7 5 8 5 6 AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. DENSITY............ 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ City Suburb Rural Economy 12% 11% 14% 9% 7% 13% 15% 10% 17% 11% Immigration 4 4 7 4 3 3 5 6 5 5 Health care 26 35 30 26 38 25 23 31 23 30 Taxes 6 5 4 2 4 3 7 4 8 3 Climate change 25 21 22 33 25 28 25 23 21 27 Education 12 9 4 4 6 10 5 11 6 5 Foreign policy 8 5 7 9 6 8 8 7 8 7 Gun policy 3 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 6 5 DK/NA 4 5 6 7 5 4 6 5 7 7

5. Have you voted in any previous primary, or will this be your first primary?

LIKELY VOTERS...................................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ PARTY REG COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Voted previous 93% 92% 95% 92% 95% 92% 87% 97% 98% 88% First primary 6 8 5 7 5 7 12 3 1 11 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. DENSITY............ 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ City Suburb Rural Voted previous 75% 98% 96% 98% 87% 97% 96% 89% 95% 94% First primary 23 2 4 2 13 3 4 11 3 6 DK/NA 2 - - - - - - - 2 -

6. As you may know, it has been recently reported that Michael Bloomberg is preparing for a possible candidacy in the Democratic presidential primary. Would you definitely vote for him in the Democratic primary, consider voting for him in the Democratic primary, or would you definitely not vote for him in the Democratic primary? (Question asked 11/8/2019 - 11/10/2019)