UPDATE – January 8: This projection has been revised to account for a correction to the qualification of Mike Iupati. Please read more here.

UPDATE 2 – January 31: With the news that declined options may no longer allow players to become compensatory free agents, an additional note has been made on the possibility of alterations to this projection. Please read more here.

This article refers specifically to OTC’s projection for the 2020 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory picks cancellation charts here.

The Projection

Note that although there are 33 eligible compensatory picks listed in this projection, each year only exactly 32 picks are awarded. Therefore, the pick that ranks 33rd is not awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge presence of any comp picks in excess of 32, as this list does with strikethrough text.

Compensatory picks became tradeable beginning with the 2017 NFL Draft. This year, there has been one such trade thus far, with the Texans sending a 3rd round comp pick to the Browns for Duke Johnson–although it may be unclear as to which pick is sent to Cleveland should the Texans receive two 3rd round comp picks.

I expect the official release to come out on February 21, the Friday before the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine. Releasing the list then is sensible, as it allows executives at the Combine to discuss possible trades with full knowledge of their draft capital.

Cutoff Projections

It was suggested via the resolution allowing comp picks to be traded on December 2, 2015 that the cutoffs between each rounds and whether or not a player had an APY high enough to qualify was determined by a “rank[ing] against all players in the League who are on rosters at the end of the season”. I have conjectured from this evidence that the cutoffs are based on a percentile system. After refining the OTC’s program following the official release of the 2017 compensatory picks, it’s my guess that the percentiles operate on even percentages divisible by five, as illustrated in the table below.

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where these cutoffs lie. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error.

At the end of the 2019 regular season, OTC’s database identified a total of 1,958 players that were either on the active roster or reserve lists, and had also been on a roster for at least 10 games during the 2019 regular season. As explained in the general methodology in the previous link, the cutoffs for each round and for qualifying as a compensatory free agent (CFA) have been established by this projection on certain percentile ranks of all players on the active roster and reserve lists at the end of the regular season, sorted by APY adjusted for snap counts in descending order and also represented by the player at the cutoff point. For 2019, these cutoffs are as follows:

Round Percentile Overall Rank Representative Player 3rd/4th 95th (top 5%) 99 Trumaine Johnson 4th/5th 90th (top 10%) 197 Eddie Goldman 5th/6th 85th (top 15%) 295 Solomon Thomas 6th/7th 75th (top 25%) 491 Robby Anderson 7th/Qualify 50th (top 50%) 980 Chuma Edoga

A change in the cutoff calculation at the top

After reviewing the previous five seasons of compensatory pick projections, it is my belief that in the past, I incorrectly calculated the APY of players leaguewide whose contracts were extended. I believe this error was most grievous in 2018, a draft in which I projected too many 3rd round comp picks to be awarded. By correcting this possible error, the most significant change is that more players have jumped ahead in order of the compensatory free agents from the 2019 offseason, particularly in the 3rd round. That means that several players whose contracts I initially projected as 3rd rounders may instead only be 4th rounders. While I hope that I’m correct in making this correction, I don’t have the highest confidence in that, and I could be wrong, which would restore several previously projected 3rd round comp picks.

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are very close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

Nick Foles (Philadelphia): #86

Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #99

CJ Mosley (Baltimore): #101

Rodger Saffold (Los Angeles Rams): #107

Sheldon Richardson (Minnesota): #112

Kareem Jackson (Houston): #119

Kwon Alexander (Tampa Bay): #134

4th/5th

John Brown (Baltimore): #187

Golden Tate (Philadelphia): #189

Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #195

5th/6th

Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #295

Cameron Wake (Miami): #309

6th/7th

None (Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #491)

7th/Qualifying

None (Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #980)

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

The level at which teams are becoming more mindful of compensatory picks has reached new highs. This once again includes the rule where compensatory free agents will not qualify if they are not on their roster past Week 10 (this year, the Sunday games took place on November 10). This year, notable cuts right before this date include LJ Fort (cut by Philadelphia September 27), Deone Bucannon (cut by Tampa Bay October 9), Justin Bethel (cut by Baltimore October 21–and acknowledged by John Harbaugh as comp picks being the reason why), Donte Moncrief (cut by Pittsburgh November 2), Andrew Sendejo (cut by Philadelphia November 5), and Mike Davis (cut by Chicago November 9).

While I have high confidence that all these players, among others cut before Week 10, will not qualify, two that will be specifically noted in the altering scenarios below will be Moncrief and Davis. That’s because both were claimed off waivers by the Panthers, thus spending more than 10 weeks on NFL rosters. The precedent of Martellus Bennett not qualifying in 2018 makes me believe that Moncrief and Davis will not qualify, but because that’s the only precedent I have on record, it’s safe to note what would happen if I’m wrong–and it would be bad news for Pittsburgh and/or Chicago.

There are two players that I am guessing will not qualify to become compensatory free agents due to having their previous contracts shortened via renegotiation. On March 16, 2018, Latavius Murray and the Vikings renegotiated his contract that included deleting the 2019 year, allowing him to become a free agent one year earlier. Murray subsequently signed with New Orleans on March 12, 2019. Similarly, on March 15, 2018, Mike Iupati and the Cardinals renegotiated his contract that including voiding his 2019 year for salary cap proration purposes. Iupati subsequently signed with Seattle on March 14, 2019. If I am wrong about either or both of these players not qualifying, it will change the comp picks awarded to Minnesota and/or Seattle.

UPDATE – January 8: I now believe that my initial analysis of Iupati’s renegotiation is incorrect.

A source that OTC considers reliable informs us that Iupati will indeed qualify as a compensatory free agent. The reason why is that Iupati’s renegotiation occurred immediately before the start of the 2018 league year, despite being first reported in the media immediately after the start of the new league year. The explanation is that renegotiations that shorten a contract only disqualify a player from becoming a CFA if the shortening causes the contract to expire in the same league year that the renegotiation occurred. If true, this would help better explain why Adrian Peterson qualified as a CFA in favor of Minnesota in 2018 despite shortening his contract via renegotiation, as that renegotiation happened well before this cited cutoff date of the start of the new league year.

A similar question regarding void years was raised with Alex Okafor, who went from New Orleans to Kansas City as an unrestricted free agent. In Okafor’s case, a late renegotiation in his two year deal with the Saints transformed a player option to void the second year should Okafor log three or more sacks to an automatic void. I am guessing that Okafor will qualify as a CFA because the void year existed in the original contract, and was not created via renegotiation. If I’m wrong about that, it will help out the Chiefs’ comp pick standing.

UPDATE – January 31: There is now doubt on whether players who arrived to free agency via declined options now qualify as compensatory free agents. You may learn more about this doubt here.

As far as the projection for the 2020 comp picks go, the only player possibly affected by this potential rule change that is relevant to the results is Nick Foles. However, his situation is complex. Philadelphia actually exercised his team option, but then Foles immediately countered that move by declining his own player option, becoming a free agent. Due to this complexity, and the fact that Foles was able to leave Philadelphia against the Eagles’ will, I am still projecting that Philadelphia will get a 3rd round comp pick for losing him. But this new discovery means that there’s a chance that I could be wrong.

Possible Altering Scenarios