© Copyright 2019, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Likely Democratic caucusgoers are almost evenly split on whether Iowa should keep its status as the first-in-the-nation caucus state or convert to a primary, which would be more inclusive but could mean Iowa loses its outsized role in American presidential politics, according to a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

The poll of 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers shows 42% believe it’s more important for Iowa to retain its spot as the first test of Democratic presidential candidates "even if it means not everyone who wants to can participate on caucus night." Forty-four percent say it is more important for Iowa to hold a primary "so everyone can vote, even if it means Iowa would no longer" be first. Another 14% say they are unsure.

Susan Osvale, a 70-year-old poll respondent and retired elementary school teacher in Exira, thinks Iowa should stick with its first-in-the-nation caucus status. She also wants it to be more inclusive, but she fears the repercussions of a primary.

“Iowa as a whole would be a flyover state,” she predicted.

Osvale, who plans to caucus for former U.S. Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, fears presidential candidates would completely skip visits to her small western Iowa community if the state isn’t first on the calendar.

“They would come and give speeches in Davenport, Des Moines, possibly Council Bluffs, Waterloo … and that would be pretty much it,” she said.

Shannon Mess, a 38-year-old poll respondent in Muscatine who is a mental health care coordinator, said Iowa should switch to a primary. Mess works with people with severe mental illnesses including depression and anxiety. She believes a caucus may not be the best setting for them, but her clients could be more comfortable participating in primary voting, which allows for privacy and would be less time-consuming.

“It would be a way to get more people involved and hear back from other members of the community that might not necessarily be able to get to a specific place and do a caucus,” Mess said.

Why a primary risks Iowa's lead-off spot

There's a complication, though: New Hampshire, the first state to hold a primary during the nominating period, would likely challenge any attempt by Iowa or another state to hold a primary before New Hampshirites vote.

For years, some Iowa and national political activists have said caucuses aren’t inclusive enough. Caucuses are often an hourslong process that can exclude late-shift workers, parents with child care needs, elderly people who are reluctant to go out on a cold winter's night, and others who simply can’t get to a caucus site.

The topic gained prominence recently after the Democratic National Committee rejected the Iowa Democratic Party’s plans to hold virtual caucuses, citing cybersecurity concerns. In an Iowa Poll conducted in June, a majority of respondents who said they were likely to participate in the then-proposed virtual caucuses said they were unsure what to think about such a system.

On Friday, a DNC rules committee approved a plan by Iowa Democrats to expand its “satellite” caucusing system, though that step is not expected to completely address critics' concerns about accessibility.

Satellite caucusing will allow Iowans, through additional approval, to caucus in non-traditional locations like nursing homes, work sites, out-of-state college campuses and overseas.

Iowa Democrats are expected to work with DNC officials after the general election to enact virtual caucuses in 2024.

Iowa Democratic Party chairman Troy Price has committed to opening up the caucuses while trying to reassure Iowans about their place in the nominating calendar.

“Iowa will be a caucus, and Iowa will be first,” he said multiple times during a news conference shortly after the DNC rejected the virtual caucus plans.

Peter Moore, a 43-year-old poll respondent and professor in Ames, said he wants Iowa to keep its first-in-the-nation status. But he dismissed the premise of the poll question, that preserving caucuses would come at the cost of inclusivity. He strongly believes Iowa Democrats will figure out a way to make the existing system more accessible.

Moore recalled caucusing for former Democratic presidential candidate Chris Dodd in 2008, and how special he felt when persuading fellow community members to support his candidate.

“It’s an opportunity for people to learn from each other,” Moore said. “And make it more of an interactive and social process of selecting the candidate.”

Inconvenient for some; unique for others

The poll was conducted Sept. 14-18 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Among the demographic groups where at least half say it’s more important for Iowa to keep its first-in-the-nation status than shift to a primary the splits are: moderates (52%), town dwellers (50%) and men (50%).

Among the demographic groups where a majority believe Iowa should switch to a primary even if it loses its lead-off status the splits are: those who identify as very liberal (64%), first-time caucusgoers (59%), those under age 35 (53%), those with income under $70,000 (53%) and suburban dwellers (52%).

Sarah Darrow, a 46-year-old poll participant from North Liberty, skipped the 2016 Democratic caucus because she was taking care of her daughter, who was about 2 or 3 at the time.

“It was going to be right in the middle of dinner and bedtime, and I wasn’t willing to screw up her day,” said Darrow, a secretary who believes it’s critical that the caucuses be accessible to working parents like herself. She supports switching to a primary.

“It’s more important that everyone votes, than necessarily Iowa be counted first,” she said. “So long as we get counted.”

But others believe a caucus is unique and worth keeping. Rick Knutson, a 59-year-old poll respondent in Avoca who works at a call center, said he has enjoyed participating in Iowa’s caucuses since the 1980s. A primary would ruin a sense of unity that comes out on a caucus night, he said.

See all of our latest Iowa Poll results:

“It has worked because you can express your opinions in a caucus,” he said. “You can hear other sides. You can relate to other sides and form your own opinions.”

Moore, the Ames professor, suggested that Iowa enact a type of statewide holiday on the day of its caucuses so more people can take time off from work to participate. He also suggested finding ways for more on-site child care.

“It would demonstrate Iowa’s commitment to being engaged in national politics,” he said of a focused effort to address access issues. “Kind of reinforce the first-in-the-nation status rather than threatening it.”

Barbara Rodriguez covers Pete Buttigieg, health care and politics for the Register. She can be reached at bcrodriguez@registermedia.com or 515-284-8011. Follow her on Twitter @bcrodriguez.​​​​​​​

The Iowa Poll, conducted September 14-18, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,510 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 602 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses in person have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.