Rebekah L. Sanders

The Republic | azcentral.com

Arizona Senate President Andy Biggs holds a lead in the Republican race for the open U.S. House seat in the East Valley, two polls indicate.

But many voters are still undecided. And there is room for candidates in the four-way GOP race to rise, as advertising ramps up ahead of the Aug. 30 primary election.

In second place is former Maricopa County Supervisor Don Stapley, according to the polls. He's followed by state Rep. Justin Olson and former GoDaddy executive Christine Jones battling for third and fourth places.

It's the first look by third-party pollsters at the candidates' rankings. The Republicans are vying to replace U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, R-Ariz., who is retiring from the safe conservative 5th District.

Biggs and Stapley might be benefiting from name recognition they've built over years in East Valley politics, while Olson and Jones are relative newcomers.

Biggs, a retired Gilbert attorney, also benefits from Salmon's backing and a healthy fundraising lead. Biggs spent 14 years in the state Legislature and won $10 million from Publisher's Clearing House.

Stapley was on the county board for 18 years, where he faced investigations into his real-estate deals and campaign fundraising by Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio that were dropped. A street in Mesa is named after his family, which has lived there for generations.

Jones, who lives in Phoenix, outside the district, was the top attorney for Internet company GoDaddy for a decade before running unsuccessfully for governor in 2014.

Olson, a tax analyst for Apollo Education Group, has represented Mesa for six years in the state Legislature.

Religious voters

Another revelation is the religious affiliations of likely GOP primary voters.

Half said they attend religious services one or more times a week, according to the Summit Consulting Group poll.

The OH Predictive Insights poll indicates Jones, an evangelical Christian, could benefit from being part of the largest faith group in the survey, 30 percent. Catholics and Protestants accounted for a combined 36 percent.

Only 20 percent of survey respondents claimed to be members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

The remaining three candidates — Olson, Biggs and Stapley — are members of that faith.

But Biggs was the strongest candidate with voters of all faiths except Judaism.

Criticism of the polls

Biggs' campaign lauded the polls, while representatives for Stapley, Jones and Olson called the surveys inaccurate. They said their own research, not shared with The Arizona Republic, shows a closer race.

The poll by Summit Consulting Group used more older voters than turned out in past Republican primaries, while OH Predictive Insights didn't screen for age. The polls also called more landline phones than the campaigns say is reasonable, which typically skews the population older.

Automated surveys are often considered lower quality than those conducted by live pollsters.

Brian Murray of Summit Consulting Group and Mike Noble of OH Predictive Insights defended their results, saying they accurately reflect the race.

Reactions from the campaigns

Biggs campaign consultant Adam Deguire:

"These polls confirm what we are seeing on the ground among grassroots Republicans throughout District 5. Everyday, Andy Biggs' campaign is gaining more support from voters who want their next Congressman to be someone with deep roots in the East Valley and someone who has a proven record of representing their conservative values. But the only poll that matters is on Election Day, and Andy will continue to campaign hard to ensure his message of fighting back against the Washington establishment is heard by every voter in his district."

Jones chief strategist Brian Seitchik:

"Our live caller survey indicates a much tighter race than these robo-polls. Our data shows Stapley, Biggs and Jones separated by only 5 percentage points. Nevertheless, these numbers are meaningless until voters start to engage and discern between three career politicians with nearly 40 years of elected office and a conservative business leader who is not beholden to any special interests."

Olson campaign manager Chris Kelly:

"It's tough to give much credibility to either of these polls considering the problems with both. Our own data shows the Olson campaign in a very strong position and we feel very good about our chances in August."

Stapley campaign consultant George Khalaf: