Led by second year head coach Kirby Smart, Georgia finished as runner ups in the college football playoff. The foundation of their offense was based on their running game. Historically, the Georgia program has produced talented running backs to the NFL. Todd Gurley, Terrell Davis, and Herschel Walker are a few of the backs who came from the program to go on and have success at the professional level.

Seniors Sony Michel and Nick Chubb were the lightning and thunder to Georgia’s rushing success in 2017. Both are talented players, but projecting them to the next level requires a deeper dive into their film, usage, and production.

Ball security

The most notable discrepancy between Chubb and Michel is ball security. Despite receiving 227 touches in 2017, Nick Chubb didn’t fumble once. Michel’s ball security was graded as a “red flag” according to Draft Scout’s Dane Brugler. Ron Rivera has traditionally been strict about playing time for rookies. A good way to lose his trust is by fumbling the ball in high leverage situations.

One of Michel’s costly fumbles came against Oklahoma. Georgia was controlling the game, but this fumble return gave the Sooners hope.

Elusive rating

There is perception that Sony Michel is better at creating yards over Nick Chubb. The numbers and film paint a different picture. Pro Football Focus’s elusive rating is measured by taking a running back’s missed tackles and yards after contact to create the formula. According to their 2018 draft guide, Chubb’s elusive rating was 94.6 while Michel’s was 90.5 Furthermore, this wasn’t based on a small sample. Chubb received 227 carries while Michel received 156 carries.

Here’s where Chubb displays his ability to create despite the direction of the run being closed. He stays patient, shuffles a few steps, and then explodes.

Balance and running through contact are important qualities to possess. Chubb displays incredible balance to stay on his feet on this touchdown.

Instincts

Bill Walsh valued instincts when he was scouting running backs.

Pure running instincts become critical. You just can’t play this position without instincts. There has to be an intuitive style and it differs by degree with every running back there is. Without those instincts, as we learned with Terrance Flagler after we spent a No. 1 pick on him, you can’t play the position. In practice, Terrance could do everything that you wanted. But in a game, he just wasn’t instinctive. So that is critical.

This is another area where Chubb has the advantage over Michel. Watch Chubb’s head as soon as he secures the ball. He bobs it to the left, but explodes for a solid gain through the right. That’s creativity and instincts showcased in one carry.

That’s not to suggest Michel can’t do it, but his longest runs looked similar to this.

You can fit NINE Sony Michel’s in that hole pic.twitter.com/Ujq9Q21EGj — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 1, 2018

This is an enormous hole. Michel deserves credit for reaching top speed, but I highly doubt he’s going to see these type of holes in the NFL.

Usage

Despite tearing his ACL in 2015, Nick Chubb recovered just fine and was the bell cow back for Georgia in 2016 and 2017. The Michel and Alvin Kamara parallels don’t resonate well because Smart isn’t as rigid of a coach as Butch Jones. If Smart entrusted an 80% Chubb in 2016 over Michel, then that should carry weight in the minds of evaluators.

Michel certainly improved in 2017, but how much of his success was a product of his surroundings? According to Pro Football Weekly’s Marcus Mosher, Michel saw an eight man box only 10% of the time. In addition, Michel was primarily used on the field in 10 and 11 personnel to spread the defense out.

Chubb was the bell cow and received more carries in first and second downs against loaded boxes.

On this split zone concept, Chubb is facing an eight man box. He initially looks to take the run outside the C gap, but jumps back inside through the A gap. The play was further punctuated by his ability to run through contact, which is a huge plus.

Chubb faced another loaded box on this run. His flexibility and jumps show how impressive of an athlete he is. Again, this is another example of Chubb creating yards when the hole is shut down. He jump cuts to the left and speeds through the hole.

According to PFF’s 2018 draft guide, Chubb averaged 3.8 yards after contact. Despite seeing heavier boxes, Chubb consistently showed that he could run through contact. He’s built well and doesn’t shy away from contact.

When the play is blocked to perfection like this run, Chubb demonstrated his elusive skill set at the second level of the defense. That’s a nasty juke on the safety.

The problem with Michel is he is more of a straight line runner. His cuts aren’t going to be smooth. The run is initially flowing outside the tight end, but Michel correctly identifies the hole to the inside. His jump isn’t polished, which gives the edge defender more time to shed the block.

Michel is ideally suited for a team that implements a zone based running scheme like the 49ers, Falcons, or Dolphins. When he sees the hole, he does his one cut and goes.

Passing game

Michel’s pass block efficiency was better than Chubb’s in 2017, so he has the edge in that department.

From a production standpoint, Michel was a more productive receiver than Chubb. With that said, I was surprised to learn that Michel only saw 80 targets throughout the duration of his career in Athens. I’m not so sure that Michel is a better receiving prospect than Chubb though.

Another good route by Nick Chubb. pic.twitter.com/rboIcnrUhh — Fusue Vue (@lifesyourcup) March 27, 2018

I dunno, Nick Chubb looks pretty explosive on this route. pic.twitter.com/KI9mvgY5bQ — Fusue Vue (@lifesyourcup) March 22, 2018

Both of these clips came from Chubb’s pro day. His routes are clean and more importantly he caught the ball with the correct catch technique.

Conclusion

There seems to be a heavy amount of recency bias surrounding the two prospects after each of their performances in the National Championship Game. Chubb didn’t have a great game from a production standpoint while Michel elevated the Georgia offense.

According to Marcus Mosher, Michel did not see one box of eight defenders. The most he saw was seven, and that came on his first carry. One game against a historically great defense shouldn’t outweigh Chubb’s other accomplishments.

Nick Chubb is a 98th percentile SPARQ athlete!!!! pic.twitter.com/bu4Q1IVJTA — Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) March 2, 2018

Chubb is also an elite athlete. Michel did not complete all of the drills at the combine or his pro day, but there’s a minuscule chance that he would have tested as a better athlete.

Chubb makes more sense for Carolina than Michel. He is proficient at gap runs, power, and zone. The Panthers invested a top-10 pick in McCaffrey, so it’s critical to compliment him with a player who is an all around back. Chubb is a better athlete, runs through contact better, eludes defenders better, fares well against stacked boxes, has stronger ball security, and runs with better instincts.

My final grade for Chubb is 73.75, which comes out to a day one starter. Michel’s final grade is 64.5, which is a potential year one starter/year two starter.