Jackie Borchardt, cleveland.com

By Seth A. Richardson, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio – The filing deadline has passed, candidates have turned in their signature petitions and the slate of candidates for governor is now officially set.

The field for the gubernatorial race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. John Kasich has been extremely fluid over the last few months.

A once-crowded Republican race is now down to two candidates after the rest of the field – save for Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor – jumped ship to clear the way for Attorney General Mike DeWine. The Democratic field has completely shifted since ex-federal consumer watchdog Richard Cordray entered the race.

Conventional wisdom has pitted Cordray and DeWine against each other in the general election for months. Even before Cordray was in the race, his name was the only one surveyed against Republicans in a head-to-head matchup in polls.

While a Cordray-DeWine matchup seems to be the likeliest scenario, it is far from a lock. Polling shows Cordray’s lead in the Democratic field isn’t ironclad, and Taylor just dumped $3.2 million into her campaign account, potentially making the Republican race competitive.

Here are the paths to victory for each candidate.

Don't Edit

John Minchillo. Associated Press

Attorney General Mike DeWine

While Kasich has endorsed Taylor for the governor’s race, DeWine seems like the truer successor to the Kasich administration, especially since Taylor has tacked hard to the right in the Republican primary to try to separate herself from DeWine.

By just about any metric, DeWine is the frontrunner. He has the most money. He has the highest name ID. He's mostly consolidated the Republican field.

And, possibly most importantly, Kasich is still popular as a lame duck governor. That bodes well for DeWine’s general election chances since – by the polling – voters aren’t particularly upset with the Republican administration.

Rating: Slim favorite

Don't Edit

John Minchillo, Associated Press

Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor

As cleveland.com's Andrew Tobias astutely pointed out, Taylor has remade herself from a Kasich ally into a conservative firebrand, trying to take on an underdog role as the political outsider in the Republican primary.

While that’s not exactly accurate – she’s been in Columbus since 2003 – there’s a chance it could play well with the base, some of whom see DeWine as too moderate for their taste.

To have any chance at a victory, she’s going to have to overcome the fact that nobody seems to know who she is. The $3.2 million influx should help, but it’s far short of the $10.8 million the DeWine campaign has in its coffers – not to mention DeWine’s personal wealth.

Taylor tacking so far to the right could hurt her in the general election where the electorate is more moderate.

Rating: Outside chance

Don't Edit

Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer

Ex-Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray

On paper, Cordray should be the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic primary and the general election, period.

He's an alum of President Barack Obama's cabinet. He has support from national figures like U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren. He's won a statewide race before. And he's able to tap into a nationwide fundraising base.

But if the numbers are any indication, Cordray is far from winning this race as of right now. Internal Democratic Party polling had Cordray down by one point against DeWine, while more neutral polling had him down 21 points.

That same poll didn’t have Cordray running away with the Democratic contest either. Despite consolidating support by having former U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton join his ticket, he still only clocked in with 23 percent of support, with 52 percent undecided.

In theory, the general election favors Democrats overall. The nationwide generic ballot average shows Democrats leading Republicans by 6.5 percentage points, though that margin would not be enough to overcome the 8-point victory Donald Trump had in 2016, assuming a similar electorate.

Rating: Conventional favorite

Don't Edit

Joshua Gunter. cleveland.com

Former U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich

Cordray’s number one competition in the Democratic primary is Kucinich.

The former Northeast Ohio congressman has been barnstorming around the state since announcing in mid-January, and while we don’t have any campaign finance numbers for him, he has a strong base.

A plurality of the vote is going to come from Northeast Ohio, where Kucinich is well known for his time in Congress, as Cleveland mayor, and his two presidential runs. Kucinich’s base also occupies the activist wing of the party and are very reliable voters. His unapologetically liberal views might also play well with an energized Democratic base.

Kucinich might appear too progressive for a general electorate, but he has been stoking a brand of populism similar to Trump's for decades now. While he might alienate some conservative independents, he could have crossover appeal with Trump voters, given their similar economic message.

Rating: Good chance

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Seth A. Richardson, cleveland.com

Former state Rep. Connie Pillich

Former state Rep. Connie Pillich is the lone Democratic woman in the race after Sutton dropped to join Cordray’s ticket and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley exited, throwing her support behind Cordray as well.

The #MeToo movement has swept the nation, with women running for political office at a record rate. That hasn’t seemed to catch on in Ohio, but Pillich could find a grounding with women, especially after an endorsement from EMILY’s List.

She also has a respectable war chest going into the thick of the campaign, reporting more than $900,000 cash on hand. That’s enough to at least keep her competitive for the time being.

Pillich has had trouble catching fire so far, though. In the few polls publicly available, she has barely registered. Internal Democratic polling had her down against DeWine by 12 points.

Rating: Outside chance

Don't Edit

Seth A. Richardson, cleveland.com

State Sen. Joe Schiavoni

State Sen. Joe Schiavoni has strengths that haven’t seemed to click with the general public yet. He’s young, unapologetic and from the Youngstown area, a key place for Democrats looking to rebound from an awful 2016, when Trump won Trumbull County.

Unlike other candidates in the race, Schiavoni can point to work he’s done recently in Columbus. He’s the only Democrat running for office who served in Columbus during Kasich’s second term. The problem arises in translating what he’s worked on in the Legislature into policy positions voters can get behind.

Schiavoni, a former boxer, has also been the only candidate who hasn’t been afraid to attack the other candidates. The three Democratic debates to date have been lackluster affairs on the whole, but Schiavoni has gone on the offensive. That bare knuckles approach could appeal to blue collar workers looking for a Democrat to represent them.

Rating: Outside chance

Don't Edit

Ohio Supreme Court

Former Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill

Former Ohio Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill is mostly a wildcard in the Democratic primary race. He won statewide in 2012 without taking campaign contributions, but that was in a nonpartisan judicial race.

The governor’s race is a different animal, and he’ll have to come up with some funds to be competitive. As a judge, he’s also less well known than many of the other candidates.

O'Neill's biggest shortcoming might be his own stream of consciousness. In a year where Democrats are looking for unapologetically liberal defenders, O'Neill has criticized NFL players for kneeling during the national anthem and drew massive amounts of criticism for posting his sexual history while defending now-resigned U.S. Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota.

O’Neill seems like a long shot at best, especially with Kucinich eating up much of the progressive base, but Trump ran his way to the presidency while being much more vulgar than O’Neill.

Rating: Longshot

Don't Edit

Seth A. Richardson, cleveland.com

Jon Heavey

Heavey is a true wild card in the Democratic race in that nobody really knows who he is, but he also has $1.5 million to mess around with.

Heavey has a fairly impressive resume. He’s Ivy League educated. He’s a combat veteran. He’s a doctor and has worked in venture capital.

But almost nobody knows who he is, making a run for statewide office an incredible challenge.

The one thing that could work for him is Heavey is mostly a blank slate. He has no record to attack because he has literally no record. He’s also the only candidate who can claim true outsider status, having never run for office of any kind.

Rating: Longshot

Don't Edit

Paul E. Ray

If Heavey is almost unknown in the Democratic race, Ray is absolutely unknown. He has no digital footprint, save for a single YouTube video with fewer than 100 views.

Rating: Longshot

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Ann Sanner, Associated Press

Larry Ealy

Larry Ealy is a former exotic dancer and "vexatious litigant" who ran for governor as a Democrat in 2014.

While Ealy received 17 percent of the Democratic primary vote in 2014, he’ll be hard pressed to receive anywhere near that vote in 2018.

Ranking: Longshot

Don't Edit

Photo provided by the Gadell-Newton campaign

Constance Gadell-Newton

Constance Gadell-Newton is an activist and attorney who is running for governor as a member of the Green Party. As a third party candidate, Gadell-Newton’s prospects of winning the governor’s race are incredibly slim.

There is an outside chance Gadell-Newton could play the role of spoiler for the Democratic contender. Anita Rios notched more than 100,000 votes in 2014, though 2014 is something of an outlier with then-Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald’s atrocious showing and campaign.

That amount would have been enough to swing the 2010 election in favor of then-Gov. Ted Strickland (Green Party candidate Dennis Spisak received only 58,475 votes that year). Only 14 of Ohio’s 43 gubernatorial elections since 1901 have been within 100,000 votes, with the Strickland-Kasich matchup in 2010 the only race that close since 1978.

Rating: Longshot