This weekend, I spoke with several people who suggested another possibility. They pointed out that the raid did not coincide merely with the article but also with an accelerating crackdown on his political movement.

The party that López founded in 2009, Voluntad Popular, is by far the most confrontational element of the Venezuelan opposition. It was through Voluntad Popular that López organized the widespread demonstrations that led to his arrest in 2014. I wrote about the day of his arrest — how he called for supporters to gather in a city plaza, dressed in white as a sign of peace, and delivered a speech before turning himself in to the National Guard, who placed him inside a military vehicle but could not find a way out of the crowd until López, using a megaphone, persuaded his followers to clear a path. To describe that scene is one thing; to see it is another: This video offers a visceral sense of the energy and intensity of the movement López leads, and the reason it could seem threatening to a ruling party.

Since that day, even with López in prison, Voluntad Popular has continued to be the most combative wing of the opposition. During an attempted negotiation this winter between opposition leaders and the Maduro government, Voluntad Popular was the first party to declare the process a failure and leave the table; Voluntad Popular was also the first major party to boycott this year’s presidential race. In each case, the other major parties followed, and the Maduro government has now postponed the presidential election.

Unsurprisingly, the government has also intensified pressure on Voluntad Popular. Nearly 90 members of the party have been arrested. One of them is Gilber Caro, a member of the National Assembly, who was recently transferred to an undisclosed location, where he is being denied access to legal counsel or any contact with the outside. On March 5, the United Nations commission on human rights condemned this treatment of Caro, demanding that his attorneys and family be “immediately informed of his whereabouts” and classifying his captivity as an “enforced disappearance under international law.” Another member of Voluntad Popular, Freddy Guevara, is the vice president of the National Assembly. Guevara was traveling on the border with Colombia when he received word that the Maduro government was preparing to arrest him. The charges were never stipulated, but the threat was too serious to ignore, and he approached the government of Chile to obtain sanctuary at the embassy. When I spoke with Guevara a few days ago, he told me that he saw no other choice, and sees fewer now. “They wanted to use me as an example to the other congressmen, that no one is untouchable,” he said. “I didn’t want to give them that advantage, so I decided to assume this part of the struggle in an embassy, and not in jail. But I don’t know when I will be out, when I will be free.”

On Feb. 15, Maduro commandeered the national airwaves to disparage Voluntad Popular, along with the other political party that Lopez helped to found, Primero Justicia, as “violent fascist groups” that no longer have legal standing in Venezuela and exist “outside the law.” The leader of Primero Justicia, Julio Borges, has a long history with López. In 1992, they founded Primero Justicia as a civil organization; in 2000, they converted the group into a political party; and in 2008 their paths diverged over a spate of differences about party management and political philosophy. A core distinction between them is that Borges leans considerably to the right, while Lopez is an elected member of the Socialist International. Even so, Lopez and Borges have resumed a close partnership over the past few months, with Lopez leading Voluntad Popular and Borges serving as president of the National Assembly. When Voluntad Popular withdrew from negotiations with the Maduro government this winter, Primero Justicia was right behind. When Voluntad Popular announced plans to boycott the presidential election, Primero Justicia did the same.

As a consequence, the risk to Borges has been steadily rising. In recent weeks, he has remained outside the country. When I caught up with him yesterday evening, he was adamant that Primero Justicia will no longer participate in the electoral process until there is international monitoring of fraud. This position has put his party and his life in jeopardy. “I have been threatened both in public and in private, violently intimidated on multiple occasions, accused by Maduro on national television of all type of made-up stories and physically hit several times,” Borges told me. “The weaker the government is, the more aggressive they get.”