FORT ST. JOHN (NEWS 1130) – It’s touted as the largest clean energy project in North America, but a new report out of the University of British Columbia suggests the Site C dam being built in northeastern BC should be suspended or even cancelled altogether.

“We looked at the economics of Site C, using updated information produced by BC Hydro submitted to the BC Utilities Commission,” explains Dr. Karen Bakker, director of UBC’s Program on Water Governance and lead author of the report. “That updated data gives a really different picture of where Site C is at with respect to the business case. We thought it’s really important that people are aware that it has weakened significantly since Site C was approved.”

Bakker says BC Hydro’s forecasts for future power demand have gone down over the last five years along with export market prices.

“Especially in the US, and they are forecast to stay low,” she tells NEWS 1130, adding that prices for alternatives to hydroelectric power, such as wind power, have also dropped significantly. “Site C is now a very expensive option for the province. We would have to sell surplus energy — and Site C would be 100 per cent surplus when it’s commissioned — at a loss on export markets. We came to the conclusion, looking over 10 different scenarios, that it makes the most economic sense to suspend or cancel Site C while the project is referred to the BC Utilities Commission.”

The report quotes BC Hydro’s own forecasts, which Bakker says predict Site C power will remain in surplus for almost a decade after the project is completed.

“The export markets on which that surplus energy must be sold are currently not priced very favourably. We would have to subsidize Site C energy to export it, and our analysis is that there would be losses in the order of several hundred million [dollars] and potentially over $1 billion. That’s in addition to the more than $8 billion construction cost.”

BC Liberal Leader Christy Clark, campaigning about Site C, was asked about her thoughts on the report and she seemed to shrug off the findings. “I guess I would say to those experts, ‘When do they think we should building Site C? After we need the electricity? After it’s too late? Should we start building it 11 years from now or nine years from now?”

.@christyclarkbc campaigning in #SurreyBC, talking up the Site C dam project, saying it’s the “only way” to achieve long term energy goals pic.twitter.com/YLL61RptkN — Kurtis Doering (@KDnewsguy) April 19, 2017

However, Bakker feels that given the updated data that a BCUC is review is “absolutely necessary” and that cancelling or suspending Site C would save the province an estimated $500 million to $1.65 billion.

“The review is imperative given that this the largest infrastructure project of a generation so the risks, if we get it wrong, are high,” she adds. “The good news is that we are not past the economic point of no return. We actually have a great opportunity to do a non-partisan, common sense, sober second-thought analysis and it’s really critical for the province to do that at this time.”

BC Hydro’s Site C project on the Peace River will be the first large dam built in BC since 1984 and BC’s fourth largest producer of electricity. It’s due to start producing 5100 GWh of power annually after its planned completion in 2024.