Editors' pick: Originally published Dec. 15.

As the season of giving comes to a close, a surge in online spending over the holidays is largely expected to counteract deep Black Friday discounts that have cut into retailers' dollar sales.

Online sales are on track to rise between 16% and 19% between November 1 and December 31, generally regarded as the holiday shopping season, according to comScore data cited by Cantor Fitzgerald, while the firm's own projection is for between 16% and 18% growth year-over-year.

Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report is the retailer to beat in terms of online traffic, followed by Walmart (WMT) - Get Report , eBay (EBAY) - Get Report and Target (TGT) - Get Report , according to comScore data.

The uptick in online shopping this year should also benefit Alphabet's (GOOGL) - Get Report Google unit through search and Facebook (FB) - Get Report through marketing, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts wrote in a note released today.

But total dollar sales for the first five weeks of the holiday shopping have nonetheless declined 3% from a year ago, driven in part by steep discounts, according to market research company The NPD Group.

"The fifth week of holiday 2016 brought the customary post-Black Friday lull, along with deeper discounts and more abundant week-long deals than in the past," NPD's chief industry analyst Marshal Cohen said in a statement. "Bigger discounts mean deeper holes to climb out of to match last year's sales numbers."

Despite some "particularly aggressive" discounting during the first two weeks of December, however, overall promotions weren't meaningfully deeper than a year ago, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note today.

Last year, retailers were pressured to discount items as unseasonably warm weather resulted in excess inventory, the analysts explained. Also benefiting year-on-year comparisons are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year during which last-minute shoppers can stock up on gifts.

Bloomingdale's (M) - Get Report , Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) - Get ReportHollister, Express (EXPR) - Get Report , Gap (GPS) - Get Report , Banana Republic, Anthropologie (URBN) - Get Report and Victoria's Secret (LB) - Get Report ran steeper discounts than a year ago, while American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) - Get Report , Chico's (CHS) - Get Report , White House Black Market, Old Navy and Urban Outfitters were less promotional, according to Deutsche Bank.

Though they weigh on total dollar sales, these discounts may be necessary to encourage spending as consumers become increasingly accustomed to getting them.

The markdowns paired with the robust online spending, colder weather and two extra shopping days should ultimately result in total holiday sales up between 3% and 4% over last year, Deutsche Bank analysts said.

"We believe most apparel retailers are below plan quarter-to-date as a strong Black Friday/Cyber Monday likely failed to entirely make up for early Nov. weakness," the analysts noted. "That said, we're optimistic that holiday sales will positively surprise over the upcoming week."

The National Retail Foundation is looking for retail sales to increase 3.6% to $655.8 billion this holiday season.