It was Australia’s first point at a World Cup since 2010 but it could have been so much more. A draw with Denmark has left the country on the brink of yet another group stage exit. Unless the Socceroos beat Peru on Tuesday, and other results are favourable, Australia’s Russia campaign will end in the same manner as their escapades in South Africa and Brazil.

Mile Jedinak’s controversial penalty earns Australia draw against Denmark Read more

Samara is famous as a hub for Russian space efforts, and Denmark began with rocket-like propulsion. Australia’s defensive line was cut apart by Christian Eriksen and Nicolai Jørgensen, with the duo combining to lethal effect for Eriksen’s seventh-minute opener. But the Socceroos came back into the game – helped by a VAR-determined Mile Jedinak penalty – and soon looked the better team. Despite a 24-team gulf between them in the Fifa rankings, Australia dominated the second half and should have secured victory. “The conclusion is: we have one point and we deserve four points from these two games,” the manager, Bert van Marwijk, said. “We had chances to win and we deserved to win.”

After his team’s loss to France, Van Marwijk complained about a lack of creativity. Australia showed much improvement in this department, with the mercurial midfielder Tom Rogic enjoying one of his best matches in a Socceroos shirt in recent memory. “They created against Denmark so many chances,” the manager observed. “I must be satisfied about the way we played, the creation of chances.”

This time, it was the finishing that let Australia down. “The only thing we have to do is put the ball in the goal,” Van Marwijk quipped. His team had 14 attempts on goal to Denmark’s 10, five on target for each side. Andrew Nabbout was energetic but lacked precision, the substitute Tomi Juric was anonymous. Tim Cahill remained conspicuously glued to the bench, despite the pleas of pundits back home, while Daniel Arzani’s late sparks of brilliance could not ignite the Socceroos. It feels as if opportunity knocked for Australia but they did not open the door.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Jedinak scores from the penalty spot. Photograph: Manan Vatsyayana/AFP/Getty Images

Van Marwijk was hired as a pragmatic, result-oriented replacement for Ange Postecoglou, who once said he would never be happy with three points achieved via dour football. But just as Postecoglou was unable to navigate the Socceroos beyond the group stage in Brazil or at the 2017 Confederations Cup, nor does it look likely that Van Marwijk’s alternative style will fare any better. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Indeed, the similarities to last year’s campaign in Russia are beginning to induce deja vu. On both occasions a narrow opening loss has been followed by a promising but ultimately insufficient performance, a draw where three points were sorely needed. If the Socceroos stay true to history, they will shine against Peru and a win will elude them again. But hope springs eternal among the 15,000 Australia fans reported to be in Russia. While progress to the knockout stage remains a mathematical possibility, Australia’s boisterous and beer-soaked fans will continue to sing.

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Van Marwijk’s preference for stability was underlined on Thursday with an unchanged lineup and identical substitutions, despite the different context into which Arzani, Juric and Jackson Irvine were introduced this time. But a World Cup-ending shoulder injury to Nabbout and another poor showing from Robbie Kruse will force the Dutchman’s hand. A running trope of Van Marwijk’s press conferences has been his pointed refusal to engage in any discussion of selection or tactics. Asked whether three matches in 10 days will necessitate further change, he again gave nothing away: “This team is fit.”

Australia will return to their nearby base in Kazan, before they fly to Sochi’s Black Sea beaches for the showdown with Peru on Tuesday. It will take good fortune, both at the Fisht Stadium and in Moscow (where France meet Denmark), for the Socceroos to qualify for the next round. Australian fans could leave Russia feeling hard done by: so far two impressive performances have been left unrewarded by the footballing gods. The Denmark manager, Åge Hareide, mused after the stalemate “the World Cup is tough”. The Socceroos are all too aware.