IT IS not every day that a former prime minister comes to Acireale, a town of 50,000 near Catania in Sicily. Yet when Massimo D’Alema, a leading figure in the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) who ran Italy’s 1998-2000 government, began a rally in a cinema, he faced many empty seats. A thousand kilometres north in Schio, with a population of 40,000, the turnout for the Northern League was worse. In this wool town, encircled by the Little Dolomites, a League meeting attracted fewer than 30 people.

Two different parties, but a common problem for the election due on February 24th and February 25th: the public’s disenchantment with mainstream politics. This boosts the Five Star Movement (M5S) of Beppe Grillo, an ex-comedian. A poll on February 19th suggested that 30% of the electorate had not decided how to vote. The same day, Mr Grillo drew tens of thousands to a rally in Milan’s central square.

Sicily and Veneto are among four big regions where the left and the right are neck-and-neck. That is striking since both are traditional bulwarks of conservatism. Silvio Berlusconi’s comeback since retaking the leadership of his People of Freedom (PdL) movement in December has obscured the right’s current troubles, which mean that he has little chance of winning an outright majority next week. Two years ago, for instance, a League-PdL ticket took over 60% of the vote in a regional election in Veneto. The latest polls give them just 37-38%.

Voting for the League has long been a way of venting frustration. Veneto’s army of small firms feel that their region’s needs are neglected, if not thwarted, by Rome. That sentiment, says Andrea Tomat, head of the regional branch of the bosses’ club, Confindustria, has never been stronger. “The scandals, the serious economic crisis faced by the country and the failure of the state to modernise and become more efficient, all contribute to a powerful sense of disillusion and a feeling of disorientation,” he says. It is Mr Grillo, says Roberto Papetti, editor of the region’s main daily, Il Gazzettino, who is harvesting the protest vote.

In Sicily too, people feel neglected by the state. Umpteen promises to build a bridge to the mainland have gone unfulfilled. Travelling by rail between the two main cities, Palermo and Catania, can take over five hours. In this region the M5S seems to attract support among the young and drains votes at least as much from the left as the right. “Grillo is a problem”, says Giuseppe Castiglione, the PdL’s regional co-ordinator. “He’s tapping into a section of our potential electorate: young, upper-middle class electors with professional qualifications.” His concerns are echoed by Giuseppe Beretta, a PD deputy. His party’s biggest challenge, he says, is to “to give people hope and faith in politics”.

Sicily’s history suggests this is no small task. In 2008 Mr Berlusconi’s party joined forces with a local group led by Raffaele Lombardo. Their pact won the governorship for Mr Lombardo. But in-fighting soon broke out and Mr Lombardo realigned with the left. He resigned last year amid claims of helping the Mafia. In the subsequent election, the centre-left took the governorship. Since then, more than a tenth of the region’s lawmakers have switched allegiance to the new masters. Mr Lombardo jokes that “the biggest group in [Sicily’s] parliament will soon be the turncoats”. Yet he himself is back with the right.

Cynicism about Italian politics poses two threats to future stability—and thus to the euro. One is that Mr Grillo’s movement takes enough seats to stop either main alliance from controlling the Senate (where, unlike in the lower house, the winning coalition is not guaranteed a majority). Since the upper house has equal powers, that could mean stalemate. Mr Grillo says he will not join any coalition, so he could force a fresh election.

But a more plausible destabilising outcome is a government with a bare majority, at the mercy of a handful of senators with flexible allegiances. Mr Lombardo, who says that his zigzagging was intended only to win more autonomy for Sicily, hopes that he and his allies get two or three seats “which will be worth gold in the next legislature”.