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Arnold Schwarzenegger revives his popular catchphrase “I’ll be back” Wednesday with the debut of “Terminator Genisys,” the fifth movie in a series dating back to 1984.

It’s film fans from outside the U.S. who’ll decide whether he’s back or not.

Forecasts and reviews for “Terminator Genisys,” from Viacom Inc.’s Paramount Pictures and David Ellison, the son of Oracle Corp. founder Larry Ellison, suggest the film will get a poor U.S. reception. International ticket sales are likely to determine whether the filmmakers recoup their $155 million in production costs, plus marketing outlays that could add another $100 million to their investment.

“It is likely to be one of the bigger disappointments this summer,” Phil Contrino, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, said in an interview.

The return of Schwarzenegger, who last acted in the series in 2003, marks Paramount’s bid to revive a franchise now in the hands of its fourth studio. “Terminator Genisys” will test the drawing power of the 67-year-old former bodybuilder and California governor, as well as audiences’ willingness to turn out for an unending parade of Hollywood remakes and sequels this summer.

“Since he left the governor’s office none of his movies have been selling,” Gitesh Pandya, editor of Box Office Guru, said in an interview. “This is his signature franchise. If this doesn’t do well, it doesn’t bode well for his acting career.”

While Schwarzenegger’s character started out 30 years ago as a bad guy, in sequels since then he’s been the hero.

“Terminator Genisys” begins like the original film, with a soldier from the future, played by Jai Courtney, traveling back to 1984 to protect the woman who will give birth to the resistance leader in a robot-dominated world. In the new movie, the timeline fractures and a new story unfolds, featuring Schwarzenegger as a good cyborg battling a villain dubbed the T-1000.

Holiday Weekend

With the film opening over the extended July 4 holiday weekend in the U.S., BoxOffice.com forecasts $45 million in North American sales Wednesday through Sunday and about $100 million for the entire run in U.S and Canadian cinemas. The Warner Bros. male-stripper sequel “Magic Mike XXL” is projected to open higher, with $48.5 million through Sunday. BoxOffice.com projects two holdovers, “Inside Out” and “Jurassic World,” will beat both of the new films.

According to Paramount, initial results indicate $300 million to $400 million in international ticket sales for “Terminator Genisys.”

“We are excited to be launching the film globally and expect that the movie will be received well across the world by moviegoers,” Paramount said in a statement. The studio is a 50-50 partner in the picture with Ellison’s Skydance Productions.

“Terminator Genisys” cost about $155 million to make, according to the studio, while analysts estimate marketing expenses at $50 million to $100 million.

That suggests the film will have to generate worldwide ticket sales of at least $450 million to break even during its theatrical run.

Studios split ticket sales about evenly with theaters in the U.S., and typically get 40 percent to 45 percent of the international box office, according to Wade Holden, an analyst at SNL Kagan. They get additional sales later from DVDs, TV and streaming.

China Sales

“It may be able to break even, especially if it rocks in China,” Pandya said in an interview.

Some recent films including “Furious 7,” the year’s leader in global ticket sales, have done better in China than in the domestic market of the U.S. and Canada, traditionally the most lucrative. The same held true for “Transformers: Age of Extinction” and “Pacific Rim” last year.

Plaguing the debut of “Terminator: Genisys” are mostly negative critics’ notices, the worst of the series, according to Rottentomatoes. The film has garnered 26 percent positive reviews, according to the aggregator. Previews began Tuesday night and the film opens in about 60 percent of the international markets this week, Paramount said.

“The ‘Terminator’ franchise, by now, has become its own worst Skynet -- a monument to self-regeneration that endlessly repackages the same old thrills in ever sleeker, sexier models, and that gladly screws with its own past to ensure its future survival,” Justin Chang wrote in Variety.

That’s also a gripe of marketing consultant Jeff Gomez, chief executive officer of Starlight Runner Entertainment. “Terminator Genisys” and past films have failed to trace a coherent storyline as the series passed from Orion Pictures to Sony Pictures to Warner Bros. and now Paramount.

Lost Thread

“The franchise now fractured by several different timelines,” Gomez said. “The muddled story keeps running over itself, making it confusing to audiences. The universe is huge, but we never seem to get beyond the origin story. Nothing is driving the core narrative forward, so we’re losing the thread.”

Paramount will have a chance to rectify that with two more “Terminator” films, one scheduled for May 2017 and another in June 2018.

For Paramount the issue is whether it can revive the franchise, not whether the studio suffers a writeoff, said Matthew Harrigan, analyst at Wunderlich Securities in Denver. “Terminator: Genisys” isn’t as good as it could have been, he said.