Jacek Rostowski and Arnab Das believe “Europe works best… with the Russians out, the Germans down, and the Americans in.“ They cite an “old quip” by Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, who was NATO’s first Secretary General, although he was initially reluctant to accept the position. Yet by the end of his tenure, Ismay had become the biggest advocate of the organisation, which he had famously said, was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”



The authors say the new European order has “the Russians up, the Germans on the way down, the Americans potentially bowing out, Britons struggling toward Brexit – and France rising.” Although Ursula von der Leyen has recently been chosen as the new president of the European Commission by the European Parliament, making her the “first German to hold the post” since Walter Hallstein five decades ago, it does not “confirm Germany’s continued dominance in Europe. ”

It was in fact Angela Merkel’s victory. After dropping Germany’s bid for the top job at the European Central Bank due to resistance to her candidate, she pursued the presidency of the European Commission. Her preferences were her economy minister, Peter Altmaier, and defence minister von der Leyen, who was nominated as “compromise candidate” by EU leaders as part of horse-trading. This had angered those who had put forward their own “Spitezenkandidaten” – lead candidates.

The authors point out that “hegemons often assume formal leadership as their power wanes, not when it is strengthening.” Germany may soon lose its status as Europe “top dog”. Despite being the world’s fourth largest economy and Europe’s economic powerhouse, its “dominance has rested on two main pillars: seemingly permanent American defense guarantees, and the country’s world-leading manufacturing firms and massive net-creditor position.“ But these “foundations start to crumble.”

Besides, the “prevalence of ultra-low interest rates globally, and particularly in the eurozone,” diminished the threat of another sovereign-debt crisis, because Italian and even Greek ten-year bonds “have recently been yielding less than their US equivalents.” Germany would lose its “semi-soft” sway over the eurozone by “offering financial support in exchange for fiscal austerity and structural reform.”

The Franco-German relationship has not been plain sailing for quite a while, and the two leaders – the ambitious Emmanuel Macron and the cautious Angela Merkel have clashed over a number of issues. But a Franco-German leadership in the post-Brexit EU will not go unchallenged. The Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) perceive the UK as a countervailing force against the dominant role of France and Germany – as the Benelux countries did in the 1960s.

With Britain soon leaving the EU, a new chapter will begin, and France may play a key role writing it. With its traditional policy orientations, France would clearly benefit more than Germany in terms of potential to shape EU policies in key political economy domains. Moreover, Brexit would give France options for coalitions with southern member states in the Council. This rebalancing of influence in favour of France would curb the likelihood of German hegemony in the post-Brexit EU, and provide for joint European co-leadership in policy domains in which Britain had played a significant role.

Much had happened since the fall of the Soviet Union and the German reunification. Various crises and challenges – a revisionist Russia, eurozone debts, mass influx of migrants rise of populism etc – had had an impact on the Franco-German relationship. Although integration is on top of the EU agenda, many countries pay merely lip service to the European project.

The EU itself is deeply divided, with subgroups – the Visegrad group and the Hanseatic League that makes up of Ireland, the Netherlands, the Baltic and the Nordic states – being at loggerheads with one another. Perhaps it is time to call for a multi-track EU, in order to keep the bloc together, while moving forward at different speeds. Deeper integration can wait until Eastern Europe is fully integrated into the rest of the EU and other countries get their act together.