Houston Texans reporter Sarah Barshop and New England Patriots reporter Mike Reiss take an in-depth look at Saturday's AFC divisional playoff game in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Record: 9-7

First place, AFC South

The Texans are going to need Brock Osweiler to have a repeat of his strong performance against the Raiders to stand a chance of winning on Saturday. Larry W. Smith/EPA

The Texans' trip to New England back in Week 3 presented Houston with possibly its best chance to get a win over the Patriots.

The Patriots were already without Tom Brady, who was suspended for the first four games of the season. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo injured his shoulder just four days before the game, so the Texans faced the Patriots' third-string quarterback, rookie Jacoby Brissett, who was making his first career NFL start.

And they still lost 27-0.

Now, the Texans head to New England to face a Patriots team with a week of rest under its belt and Brady coming off an MVP-esque regular season. Bill Belichick's 14-2 team looks poised to make another run through the AFC to its second Super Bowl in the past three years. The Texans are the first obstacle in New England's way.

TEXANS' X FACTOR

Texans coach Bill O'Brien tends to shut down any talk of gaining an advantage when you play a team a second time in a season because both teams have changed. But one takeaway from when these teams played at Gillette Stadium in Week 3: Brock Osweiler and the Texans' offense struggled mightily against the Patriots. Houston did not cross midfield until there were less than two minutes to play in the third quarter en route to being shut out, while Osweiler finished 24-of-41 for 196 yards and an interception. In Saturday's playoff victory over the Oakland Raiders, Osweiler played his best game of the season, particularly in the first half, and the Texans' playcalling got more conservative as they tried to hold onto the lead. Osweiler will need to play an even better game against the Patriots on Saturday to give the Texans a chance to win.

WHY THE TEXANS WILL WIN

Vegas certainly doesn't think the Texans have a shot in this game, as they are 16-point underdogs -- the Patriots are only the fourth team in the past 40 years to be favored by 16 or more points in a playoff game. If the Texans win the game, it will be because they are mistake-free, the defense contains the Patriots' offense and Osweiler builds on what he did Saturday against Oakland, committing no turnovers and playing smart football. In Week 3, the Patriots ran for 185 yards, including 105 yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns from running back LeGarrette Blount. Since then, the Texans' run defense has greatly improved, and in the past 10 games, it has allowed an average of 71.1 rushing yards. To win, the Texans would need to continue their success against the run.

WHY THE TEXANS WILL LOSE

If the game is anything similar to how the Texans have played for most of the season -- a good defense and a subpar offense -- Houston probably will not win. Not only did the Patriots end the regular season with the No. 1-ranked unit in scoring defense, allowing an average of 15.6 points per game, but they also ranked third in the NFL in scoring with an average of 27.6 points per game. The Texans have an excellent defense -- ranked first in total defense -- but averaged just 17.4 points per game in the regular season (tied for 28th), which likely won't get it done against Brady and the Patriots' offense.

TEXANS PREDICTION

The Texans' defense has been so good this year behind defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus and inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney. The group had a great game against the Raiders on Saturday, finding success getting pressure on rookie quarterback Connor Cook. But going against Brady is a totally different animal, and both the defense and Osweiler would likely have to have their best game of the season for the Texans to get a win in New England on Saturday. Patriots 24, Texans 10

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Record: 14-2

First place, AFC East

The Patriots are rested and healthy ahead of Saturday's divisional round game. Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire

The Patriots couldn't ask for much more entering the playoffs. From a team-wide perspective, they are as healthy as they've ever been (just four players on IR all season) in Belichick's tenure, they have home-field advantage, and they have played some of their best football down the homestretch in stringing together seven straight wins.

Thus, a loss to the Texans on Saturday night in the divisional round of the playoffs would be one of the most disappointing of the Belichick era. Oddsmakers have pegged the Patriots as the biggest playoff favorite since 1998.

“Football's not played in Vegas or anything,” said Devin McCourty, one of the team's captains. “So I don't think any of that stuff matters.”

PATRIOTS' X FACTOR

When previously retired offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia returned in 2016, he talked about the hope of limiting rotation up front. In 2015, the Patriots had used a league-high 39 offensive-line combinations. This season, it was nine, with the top group -- left tackle Nate Solder, left guard Joe Thuney, center David Andrews, right guard Shaq Mason, right tackle Marcus Cannon -- sticking together through the last 11 games of the season. All five starters played more than 90 percent of the snaps. Some of the most devastating losses in Patriots playoff history have come when the line breaks down (e.g. Super Bowl XLII against the New York Giants), so it always starts with this group and its ability to open holes in the running game and to protect Tom Brady.

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN

They have Brady at quarterback while the Texans counter with Osweiler. That's a mismatch. When Texans coach Bill O'Brien was serving as Patriots offensive coordinator, he called Brady's memory the “IBM” because of the incredible amount of data it could store to help him on the football field. This week, O'Brien said, “We're not going to show him anything he hasn't already seen. That's part of what makes him who he is. He's seen it all.”

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL LOSE

The shocking 28-21 divisional-round loss to the Jets following the 2010 regular season serves as a reminder of the formula that could sink the Patriots: Turn the ball over and a team that is a heavy underdog can record the upset. Brady's “lazy interception” that day changed the complexion of the game. It put the Patriots in a situation they weren't accustomed to being in because Brady hadn't thrown an interception in 11 straight games. Consider this stat: In Belichick's 17-year coaching tenure, the Patriots are 137-13 in the regular season when they win the turnover margin, 34-41 when they lose it, and 30-17 when it's even.

PATRIOTS PREDICTION

O'Brien will have a much more aggressive game plan than in the Week 3 loss to the Patriots, when the Texans ran the ball on third-and-8, third-and-5, third-and-2, third-and-20 and third-and-4. If Osweiler can turn back the clock to his terrific performance against the Patriots while leading the Broncos to a 26-20 OT win in 2015, this game will be much closer than people anticipate. That's a big "if," of course, but beware of the team that has nothing to lose. Also, when Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore had the Patriots' defense on the ropes in Week 17, it was a reminder that there are areas to be exploited. This one will be close into the fourth quarter. Patriots 27, Texans 17