By Scott Conroy - July 22, 2011

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Republican establishment types in the nation's first voting state quietly refer to it as The Doomsday Scenario. And it goes something like this:

On a scorching, triple-digit Saturday in central Iowa next month, many of the casually attuned GOP caucus-goers who had planned to attend the Ames Straw Poll instead decide to stay home or make a beeline for the nearest air-conditioned movie theater.

Meanwhile, throngs of the famously devoted supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul wipe the sweat off their brows without batting an eye and descend on the campus of Iowa State University to propel the libertarian-leaning icon to yet another straw-poll victory -- but one that might actually be significant for once.

The win gets Paul some nice press but does little to shake the ingrained perception that he has little shot at winning the caucuses and next-to-zero chance of becoming the last Republican candidate standing, the one who will take on President Obama in November 2012.

Renewed questions about Iowa's relevance gain steam immediately -- not just with respect to the decidedly inequitable beauty contest in Ames but, more broadly, to the state's coveted "special status" that officials here have fought so hard to justify amid skepticism from Republican voters in the other 49 states, who wonder why it is deserved.

Though early polls and assessments of the candidates' organizational strengths have already established a pervading narrative about what is likely to happen here, conversations with likely caucus-goers, campaign operatives and state GOP officials reveal a consensus on just one point: The field remains fluid and the conventional wisdom of the moment will almost certainly change well before the leaves start to do the same this fall.

In an Iowa campaign cycle that has gotten off to a much slower and sleepier start than almost anyone anticipated, a Ron Paul straw-poll victory is one of several plausible scenarios that have the potential to dramatically alter the current dynamic, in which Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has opened up a consistent lead in recent polls.

Late Entrants

For months, Republican political watchers here were particularly effusive in their praise for the budding campaign operations of three likely candidates: former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. They were seen to be doing Iowa the right way: making early and frequent visits to the state, signing veteran operatives, and building infrastructures that would pay dividends down the road.

But with just three weeks to go before the straw poll, all three have remained mired in the low single digits in most Iowa polls, as Bachmann, a relatively late entrant into the race who has not yet spent much time in the state, has quickly shot into the lead.

And with the potential late entries of Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- both of whom could prove to be major factors, even though they haven't made early investments in the state -- the ingrained gospel that there are no shortcuts to winning in Iowa could face a significant challenge.