Since Narendra Modi's swearing-in as prime minister of India for his second consecutive term in May 2019, the BJP government at the Centre has passed several contentious legislations-such as the abrogation of Article 370 and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019-in Parliament. Its ability to do so has primarily been based on its brute majority in the Lok Sabha and convenient arithmetic in Rajya Sabha. Though opposition parties strongly protested these legislations, both inside and outside Parliament, they did not have the numbers to counter the BJP's strength in both houses.

The BJP has 305 of its own legislators in the 543-member Lok Sabha, enough to pass any bill without even seeking the support of its allies. In the upper house, though, it has only 82 members, well short of the 120 required for a simple majority. The Rajya Sabha currently has 239 members. The BJP's current allies-the AIADMK, the JD(U), the SAD, the AGP, the BPF, the LJP, the RPI(A) and SDF-together have 25 members, taking the NDA tally to 107. Then there are parties such as the BJD, the Shiv Sena, the YSRCP, the TRS and the NPF, which have, on multiple occasions, strategically voted in support of the BJP in the upper house. These parties have 19 members; enough take the NDA beyond the simple majority mark in the upper house.

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However, the BJP's losses in seven state elections since December 2018 have led to speculation that the second-term Modi government passed its most controversial bills soon after taking power because it feared losing strength in the Rajya Sabha. As Rajya Sabha members are elected by state Assembly members, the loss of a state has a direct impact on a party's ability to send members to the upper house. As a result, the loss of seven states that together send 43 members to the Rajya Sabha was a cause of worry to the BJP leadership.

A general view of discussions in Rajya Sabha during the Budget Session of Parliament in New Delhi on Tuesday. (ANI Photo/ RSTV TV Grab)

What comes to BJP's rescue, however, is the fact that all the Rajya Sabha seats from a state don't fall vacant at the same time. That's why the party will not only maintain its strength in the Rajya Sabha, but will gain 15 new members by the end of this year, taking its strength to 97 seats (see table). In that situation, the BJP and its allies-with one of its allies, the NPP, gaining one seat-will not need support of any other party to pass any bill in the upper house. Two of the parties that have voted with the BJP in the past-the YSRCP and the MNF-are also set to win 4 seats.



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However, the good run will not last long. By July 2022, the BJP is likely to lose 8 Rajya Sabha seats from Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, all Congress-ruled states. Nonetheless, its headcount in the upper house will remain higher than its current strength of 82. After July 2022, the results of elections in Assam, West Bengal, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Goa and Gujarat will determine the BJP's tally in the Rajya Sabha.

So, for at least the next two years, the BJP doesn't need to worry much about its Rajya Sabha arithmetic.



How BJP is set to gain numbers in Rajya Sabha

Date State Number of seats falling vacant Currently occupied by Likely to go to Gain for NDA April 2020 Maharashtra 7 BJP 1, NCP 2, Shiv Sena 1, Congress 1, RPA 1, Independent 1 BJP is likely to retain the seat No change West Bengal 5 TMC 4, Independent 1 TMC will retain No change Odisha 4 BJD 3, Congress 1 BJP may win 1 1 Tamil Nadu 6 AIDMK 4, DMK 1, Left 1 Will remain status quo No change Assam 3 Congress 2, BPF 1 BJP will win 2, BPF will retain the seat 2 Rajasthan 3 BJP 3 May lose 2 -2 Gujarat 4 BJP 3, Congress 1 May remain the same No change Jharkhand 2 RJD 1, Independent 1 JMM and Congress will share seats No change Bihar 5 JDU 3, BJP 2 Will remain the same No change Madhya Pradesh 3 BJP 2, Congress 1 May lose 1 -1 Chhattisgarh 2 BJP 1, Congress 1 May lose 1 -1 Haryana 2 Congress 1, INLD 1 Will gain one seat 1 Andhra Pradesh 4 TDP 1, Congress 2, TRS 1 YSRCP will gain at least 3 No change Telangana 2 Congress 1, TDP 1 Both will go to TRS No change Manipur 1 BJP 1 Will retain No change Meghalaya 1 Congress NPP will win 1 Himachal Pradesh 1 Congress Will gain 1 June 2020 Karnataka 4 Congress 2, BJP 1, JD-S 1 Likely gain 2 2 Arunachal Pradesh 1 Congress BJP will gain 1 July 2020 Mizoram 1 Congress MNF No change November 2020 Uttar Pradesh 10 SP 6, BJP 1, BSP 2, Congress 1 BJP can win at least 9 9 Uttarakhand 1 Congress BJP can win at least 9 1

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