SUNDAY AM Update: Disney’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, despite being No. 1 this weekend, didn’t make enough money in the US to justify its $185M production cost before P&A. It came in with $36M, an opening that’s 48% below the original 2014 movie’s $69.4M. The live-action sequel to the Sleeping Beauty spinoff also didn’t wow in China, where it opened to an estimated $22.4M, another sour showing in PRC next to Paramount/Skydance’s Gemini Man, which also paled with $20.9M. Social media ratings for both of those titles weren’t great, with respective Douban ratings of 6.2 and 7.1. In regards to Maleficent 2, Maoyan was much higher than Douban with 9.1 and TPP an 8.8.

The global take for Maleficent 2 is $153M. Now I’ve been informed from finance sources that it’s a safe start worldwide to get this movie to break-even (which is around $400M), highly contingent on legs overseas. However, not enough to demand a sequel. The first movie made a $190M+ profit after all ancillaries, with overseas boasting 68% of the global $758.5M take, and China only 6% of that.

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Maleficent 2 is, unfortunately, another case of Disney overestimating and over-saturating their princess pics and animated IP, which don’t scream for sequels. This happened last year with the haggard $120M production The Nutcracker, which took an estimated loss of $66M, and even previously with the mega dud Alice Through the Looking Glass. True, much like the first movie, there’s a divide between critics who loathe Maleficent 2 and the loyal audiences who gave it an A CinemaScore and 4 1/2 stars. However, they’re not showing up in bulk. Also, sorry Disney, but what did marketing do here to distinguish the sequel from the first movie? The difference stateside wasn’t felt or clear in one sheets (they did put more characters in the poster for the sequel). The images in the first trailer looked too similar to the first film. What were the increased stakes that this sequel had to offer for big horns? That wasn’t communicated. Still, given the sour critical response to this, it’s possible the movie was a hard sell. Obviously, efforts worked abroad. While Marvel ensures that their titles win both on critical and audience fronts, that idea of –as Walt Disney called it, “plus-ing” which is making a product better than the first or to its highest quality– wasn’t in effect here. While we mentioned that the pic could have grabbed a bit more cash in the summer space, I don’t think it would have changed the sequel’s fortunes so dramatically, given the response here. Also another reason I understand for the move to October is that there’s a lot of female-driven competition next summer with Black Widow, Legally Blonde 3, and Wonder Woman 1984. People largely do make their movie-going decisions based on Rotten Tomatoes, and I’m sure if reviewers blessed this movie, we’d see better ticket sales here.

Yes, yes, as we always write whenever Disney takes a spill at the box office, they can certainly take it on the chin, with the Marvel and Pixar pics offsetting their losses. However, the whole ‘licensing’ defense, that these family pics are worth more than their box office in their parks and products ancillary life, doesn’t make sense here. It does make sense for a phenomenon like Frozen, but not here. Maleficent 2 played best in the West, South Central, and South, with final domestic projections at $95M for the film. Saturday wasn’t robust enough, with a $14.1M Saturday, +13% over a $12.5M Friday (that included $2.3M previews). Imax in US and Canada accounted for 8% of Maleficent 2‘s weekend with $3M.

Disney exits on the sequel show 56% females, 44% males, 53% adults, 39% families, and 8% teens. Under 25 set repped 46% of the audience.

Warner Bros.’ Joker continued to hold on to second place throughout the weekend with a third frame hold of -48% and 3-day of $29.2M, for a $247.2M domestic take onto what many rivals believe will be a $300M domestic steal for the DC villain.

Sony’s mid-budget $48M Zombieland: Double Tap had a respectable opening of $26.7M after $9.7M yesterday, and $10.5M on Friday (which included $2.85M previews). This is also a win for R-rated comedies, the last solid one being Universal’s Good Boys ($21.4M, and legged out to $82.8M). Zombieland 2‘s opening was slightly ahead of the original pic’s $24.7M start, and the sequel will wind up in the same place stateside with $75M domestic, with overseas accounting around a third of the global total. All ancillaries will put this $48M production in the black, I’m informed. The Ruben Fleischer-directed sequel is playing best in the West, Mid-West, Mountain and South Central.

Interesting elements of the marketing campaign included the Black Girls Run, an interactive Zombieland: Double Tap-themed 5K run with black woman fitness group, ‘Black Girls Run’ in Atlanta. Runners dressed up in Zombie attire and painted their faces like ghoulish Zombies while generating social chatter on the grassroots level. Final diversity demos were 53% Caucasian, 23% Hispanic, 14% Asian/Other and 10% African American.

Sony Pictures Television Games, Tilting Point and Metagame Studios launched Zombieland: Double Tapper, a mobile RPG for the iOS and Android. In the game, players embark on a wacky road trip across the post-apocalyptic wastelands of America that have been overrun by the undead. They can play as favorites Tallahassee, Columbus, Wichita and Little Rock.

On ESPN, there was a three-part 30 for 30 parody piece created titled “Gunslinger: The Legend of Tallahassee”, in which ESPN host Scott Van Pelt and the cast from the film spoke on the rise and fall of Woody Harrelson’s character Tallahassee. On MTV, there was a “Zombieland Reunion Show” vignette in which MTV personality Josh Horrowitz interviews the cast about what it was like to be back on set ten years later.

Overall, the cast was out in full promoting this pic: they made an appearance and screened the sequel at LA’s Comic-Con, Harrelson hosted SNL, the four stars (Emma Stone, Abigail Breslin, Jesse Eisenberg and Harrelson) were guest editors on IMDB, Rosario Dawson & Luke Wilson did voice-over intros on FOX/FS1 for ACLS MLB Playoff Series (on-air) Games 1, 2, 6 and 7, while Stone and Eisenberg did intros for last Thursday night’s NFL game between the Chiefs and Broncos. Overall, a heavy presence in live sports aimed toward older males, including NASCAR, as well as high-impact digital presence on the ESPN mobile app. There were also long-form ad pieces that aired during The Comedy Central Roast of Alec Baldwin, FX’s American Horror Story and AMC’s The Walking Dead.

NEON’s awesome Parasite wormed its way into 11th place with $1.24M from 33 sites, repping a +30 theater jump and a 10-day total of $1.8M. The movie created a lot of buzz at ShowEast this past weekend, I hear. TBD if this Bong Joon Ho Cannes Palmes d’Or winner crosses over in its expansion.

A24

A24/New Regency’s The Lighthouse at 93% certified fresh was packing in audiences at the 8PM Arclight Hollywood show last night. The Robert Eggers-directed movie, which he wrote with his brother, Max, racked up $419.7K at eight sites in NY, LA, Boston, DC and San Francisco for a very healthy $52K theater average.

Fox Searchlight

Fox Searchlight’s Jojo Rabbit at five theaters (Lincoln Square, Alamo Brooklyn, Union Square, Arclight Hollywood & Landmark) scored a $350K weekend, a $70K theater average which is the 4th best opening average of the year (behind Parasite, The Farewell and Avengers: Endgame), and A CinemaScore with females at 51% giving the pic an A+ and guys enjoying it with an A. This is with critics at 77% fresh on RT. Half of the crowd was under 50 and they gave it an A+ too. Next week Jojo Rabbit marches into eight new markets (Denver, Austin, Phoenix, Wash. DC, Boston, Toronto, San Francisco, and Chicago) and expands in NYC and LA bringing theater count to around 50-60 locations. Fifty more markets will happen on Nov. 1 for a 350-400-plus theater break. FSL’s goal is to be north of 600+. Go Jojo.

Comscore says that weekend ticket sales for all titles are off 18% from a year ago, counting $137M. The domestic box office this year finally crossed $9 billion, but still lags 5% behind the same period in 2018 which was already at $9.5B.

Studio reported figures as of Sunday morning:

WEEKEND B.O. FOR OCT. 18-20 thumb rank pic dis scrs(cg) fri sat sun 3-day total wk 1 Maleficent 2 Dis 3,790 $12.5M $14M $9.5M $36M $36M 1 2 Joker WB/VR/Bron 4,090 (-284) $8.6M $12.4M $8.1M $29.2M (-48%) $247.2M 3 3 Zombieland 2 Sony 3,468 $10.5M $9.7M $6.5M $26.7M $26.7M 1 4 Addams Family MGM/Uar 4,102 (+95) $4.1M $7.2M $4.7M $16M (-47%) $56.8M 2 5 Gemini Man Par/Sky 3,642 $2.3M $3.7M $2.4M $8.5M

(-59%) $36.5M 2 6 Abominable DW/Pearl/Uni 2,647 (-849) $880K $1.6M $1M $3.5M (-42%) $53.9M 4 7 Downton Abbey Focus 2,258 (-761) $880K $1.3M $940K $3.1M (-37%) $88.6M 5 8 Judy RSA/LD 1,418 (-209) $580K $868K $607K $2.06M (-36%) $19M 4 9 Hustlers STX 1,575 (-782) $610K $900K $540K $2.05M (-47%) $101.9M 6 10 It Chapter Two NL/WB 1,528 (-775) $400K $690K $415K $1.5M (-52%) $209.7M 7 11 Parasite NEON 33 (+30) $434K $436K $371K $1.2M (+233%) $1.8M 2

SATURDAY AM Update: w/chart There’s money to be made in this weekend at the box office, as Universal/Miramax/Blumhouse’s Halloween proved a year ago with the month’s current third-best best opening record of $76.2M. But instead of one movie making that amount this weekend, it’s being roughly split up between Disney’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($37.7M), Warner Bros. third weekend of Joker ($28.3M), and the opening of Sony’s Zombieland: Double Tap ($26.5M) (actually the trio are making more than Halloween did with $93.8M).

For Maleficent 2, it’s current forecast opening is a disastrous stateside result for a $185M feature — and it has the support of 2,300 3D locations, 380 IMAX screens, 600 Premium Large Format screens and 135 D-Box/4D theaters. Right now, the pic’s 3-day is below tracking’s $40M+ projections and 46% off the original pic’s $69.4M opening. If this film is going to do any better, it comes down to matinees today and tomorrow, as only 36% of families showed up yesterday, to 64% general audiences in Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits.

Similar to the first movie, there’s a disparity between critics, who slammed it at 40% on Rotten Tomatoes, and audiences who, like the first film, gave the sequel an A Cinemascore. On PostTrak, all audiences gave Maleficent 2 4 1/2 stars, with parents and kids under 12 both awarding it 4 stars. We also hear that Maleficent 2 in China, along with Paramount/Skydance/Fosun/Alibaba’s Gemini Man, isn’t doing so hot with $15M, even though the former is leading the day’s box office over there with $9.7M. Gemini Man made $7.7M today, but has a higher two-day cume of $16.2M.

Gemini Man is playing on 25% of the screens in China, while Maleficent 2 is playing on around 19% of screens. Like here in the states, the hope is that the kids come out. Putting two big budget Hollywood pictures against each other cannibalizes their business. I hear from finance sources that if Maleficent 2 can do $135M-$140M worldwide this weekend, it should be fine, profit-wise, in the long run. Maleficent opened to $22M in China and ended its run there with a less than dazzling $47.7M.

Sony’s Zombieland 2, off a $48M production cost and estimated $60M global P&A spend, will have a profitable tale to tell for the Culver City, CA studio despite the pic ranking third this weekend. The sequel to the ten-year-old action/horror/comedy received a B+ last night, just under its first chapter’s A-. The pic in Friday night PostTrak exits nabbed four stars and a 64% definite recommend. Men enjoyed the Ruben Fleischer-directed sequel a tad more than females, 84% positive to 80%. M25+ led in attendance at 30%, Men under 25 at 25%, with females both under/over 25 at 22% each. Diversity demos were 51% Caucasian, 24% Hispanic, 11% African American, and 10% Asian.

Disney

But back to Maleficent 2. It’s quite unprecedented to see Disney move up a franchise pic out of a lucrative corridor such as the post Memorial Day weekend to the third weekend of October. The pic was moved up, I understand, as the conglom took into account the whole Disney-Fox combined schedule, the lack of competition during this time (though Addams Family is in the marketplace doing $14.2M in weekend 2, -53%), plus the pic is in the groove of the Halloween spirit with Angelina Jolie’s evil queen. Had Maleficent 2 stayed on May 29, it would be playing in the Memorial Day holiday wake of Paramount’s Spongebob Movie and Universal’s Fast & Furious 9. What Maleficent 2 gives up by playing this side of the year is that there’s less kids out of school versus the summer runway. There were 17% K-12 schools out yesterday when Maleficent 2 made $12.5M. That K-12 figure drops to the single digits next week. Sounds like summer would have been the better launch for Maleficent 2.

That said, as all critics have observed, no one was asking for a sequel to Maleficent, while noting that the sequel’s quality pales greatly in comparison. The first film, for some, broke the mold on the whole idea of a Disney female villain and its notion of girl power. But when a Disney live-action IP makes three quarters of a billion dollars worldwide, the Burbank, CA lot will respond to the marketplace. At the same time, Maleficent 2 serves as a warning to Disney: This is what happens when you hit and abuse your animated IP catalog too much on the live-action front, and they’ve done this countless times before, with lackluster results from Dumbo and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Unless the whole grand plan is to just fill a menu on Disney+ with titles when it launches.

Girls under 12 outweighed boys yesterday, 67% to 33% with more moms than dads, 68% to 32%. Leading demos for the sequel from Oscar-nominated Kon-Tiki filmmaker Joachim Ronning were females over 25 (33%), females under 25 (31%), men over 25 (21%), and men under 25 (16%). Diversity breakout was 40% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic, 14% African American, and 13% Asian.

Heading into the weekend, social media monitor noticed the social convo on Maleficent 2 reporting, “Discussion on social media for Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is what you might expect with a Disney sequel for an alternative star character. Half the audience is composed of Disney fans who enjoy everything from the Marvel movies to The Lion King – and are excited to see their latest Disney installment. Sure, Jolie has her fans as well, and they’re hoping this sequel lives up to the fun they had with 2014’s original live action effort. But plenty of others on social don’t like the focus on an evil character. Even if this contingent will eventually see the film, they’d rather go to Addams Family or some other “safer” fare for their kids. And, Jolie is a polarizing, double-edged sword like a lot of stars, and has a contingent of naysayers who aren’t interested in supporting her films with a theater visit.”

Maleficent 2 boasted a strong Social Media Universe of 379M heading into the weekend, well ahead of the 155M average for a family/live-action movie at opening. The film’s total reach is made up of 101.1M Facebook fans, 93.9M Facebook video views, 17.2M Twitter followers, 118M YouTube views and 48.8M Instagram followers. Keep in mind that, as with all Disney titles, the studio benefits from the immense reach of its official social assets. Social media activity was also healthy for Maleficent 2 heading into opening, starting with the movie’s average 1.5K new Facebook fans, which is slightly ahead of the genre benchmark 1.2K. Also, the pic earned over 30K average YouTube views daily for its top clips, far exceeding the typical 15.9K views. All of this probably led to box office prognosticators pushing their estimates high to $40M-$50M. The only downside in regards to social media indicators for the sequel was its viral video rate of 7:1, which was behind the genre’s average of 13:1.