SPFL Premiership Summer Scouting Report Part 1 - Hibs, Partick Thistle, Hearts, St Johnstone, Rangers and Aberdeen

With the end of the season comes this site’s transfer-window-ly look at what each Premiership side needs this season and who might be the person to bring it. This year, we’ve even gone social by giving you the hashtag moves should have (a la #pogback) so you can get transfer trending and talk about your favourite potential moves this summer. Let’s get the summer started!



A brief note on methodology - firstly, every player on here is actually properly scouted using the Wyscout platform to make sure that players suggested are actually decent because it’s important to me that this site has a reputation for not just getting it right (as in the past with Jozo Simunovic and Marcus Haber) but also that, when it gets it right, those players make something approaching a positive impact. The rest is cobbled together from knowledge, hearsay, club sources and plain old guesswork - as such, some clubs are naturally more accurate than others with at least one (that rhymes with Blabberdeen) I’m fairly confident is as accurate as it could ever be short of me wearing a disguise and snooping through offices.

This is part one of the Summer Scouting Report covering Hibs, Hearts, Partick Thistle, Aberdeen, Rangers and St Johnstone. Part two covering the rest of the SPFL Premiership clubs will be up in about a week or so.

Hibs

Confirmed Signing: Danny Swanson

Expiring Contracts: Chris Humphrey, David Gray, Lewis Stevenson, Fraser Fyvie, Brian McLean, Grant Holt, Darren McGregor, Marvin Bartley, Liam Fontaine, James Keatings, Martin Boyle, Ross Laidlaw, Alex Harris, Scott Gallacher

Loans Ending: Efe Ambrose, Andrew Shinnie, Ofir Marciano

Contract Chat: A lot of those with expiring contracts will be offered (and likely accept) new deals. Gray, Stevenson, Fyvie, McGregor, Bartley and Boyle are all no-brainers to be kept on and Grant Holt will be offered a new deal (albeit it’s less likely he’ll sign on).

Departures?: Much of Hibs’ success next season will depend on whether they can keep both Jason Cummings and John McGinn throughout the off-season. Cummings likely needs next season to improve his value and is contracted to 2020. McGinn is the more likely of the two to depart given he’s been scouted by Celtic and a whole host of English clubs - any fee is likely to be in the region of £2m.

What do Hibs need?: Goalkeeper as a definite, replacement for John McGinn maybe, an extra Premiership class striker definitely and a back-up defender.

In goals, Hibs can’t rely on players from Scotland (the most high profile one whose contract is up in June is Alan Mannus) and Neil Lennon can’t rely on Dudu Dahan (as Marciano is already the highest profile Keeper on his books) which means looking to bring a keeper in. While Neil Lennon’s history would suggest he’ll be able to wangle a decent loan out of an EPL club, permanent options are thin on the ground when it comes to free transfers with perhaps Jonas Omlin of Luzern presenting the best mix of potential, experience and affordable wage. A good back up (such as Mannus) wouldn’t go amiss either although, given Hibs’ history with goalkeepers, the words “Owain Fon Williams” should never be too far from Hibs fans’ nightmares.

As a defensive option, the obvious pick would be to sign Josh Meekings from Inverness - due to injury, he’s not been as culpable for the absolute mess at the club and there are few more experienced players at this level, particularly given he is still only 24 and, while Hibs’ defence already has plenty of what Meekings provides, reliable defenders are the sort of thing to hoard.

In midfield, it would be fairly surprising to not see Kris Commons move across to Edinburgh. He and his family are settled in Scotland, Neil Lennon would undoubtedly give him a chance and he would provide a decent attacking option, albeit not an especially mobile one. What Hibs will want is a target man if/when Grant Holt departs and they could find that in Leon Best of Ipswich. Best, whose career has gone wildly off the rails, is now likely at an affordable level having failed to perform at English Championship level and, while Lennon may wish to go to the similarly out of contract Gary Madine, who he worked with at Bolton, Best will be the cheaper option nowadays and Hibs would look an appealing club at which to attempt to resurrect his once lucrative career.

Hashtag of the summer: #keepmcginn





Partick Thistle

Expiring Contracts: Sean Welsh, Gary Fraser, David Amoo, Mark Ridgers

Loans Ending: Niall Keown, Jason Banton

Contract Chat: Sean Welsh and Gary Fraser (who has spent the season injured) are players Thistle would like to keep. Amoo and Ridgers are definitely surplus to requirements.

Departures?: Of Thistle’s saleable assets (Messrs Lindsay, Lawless, Bannigan and Edwards), all are contracted to at least 2018. Lindsay is the only one of those who could foreseeably have a really decent offer put in for him but it’s worth remembering that Thistle are in no need to sell financially and that, having achieved an unexpected top six slot this season, they can actually think about extending contracts this summer and maybe improving a couple of positions that need it.

What do Thistle need?: Central defender, right sided midfielder

Thistle’s key in their spring run to the top six has been their defence, most notably the acquisition of Niall Keown on loan. This allowed them to push Adam Barton up into a holding midfield role and, in turn, made the side near enough impenetrable - 9 goals conceded in 11 games since the break is an extremely enviable record and has been the base of their run. Keown, however, goes back to Reading in the summer and, short of Thistle spending a fee on him, isn’t likely to be back. Like Hibs, Josh Meekings would be a very sensible signing for them but it is fair to assume that Thistle may get outmuscled on wages. Looking, therefore, to England, and it’s hard not to think Alan Archibald may be tempted to bring back Aaron Taylor-Sinclair from anonymity (even if left back isn’t a pressing concern) at Doncaster but priority should be to bringing in another familiar name: Ryan Edwards of Morecambe. Ryan Edwards Two is a big, no-nonsense centre back who fits Thistle’s needs perfectly - a young big experienced defender known for being big, consistent and brave. And, at 23, there is progression there to be had from the Scouser.

Right Wing is a much more difficult role to film because of Thistle’s very tight budgetary controls and, as such, we slip into “player the author knows the club could afford the wages for but doubts the club have ever heard of him. But he’s decent, honest” territory for the first time - Mitja Lotric of Rudar Velenje in Slovenia. Good at cutting inside and very capable on shooting, Lotric is a former Slovenia U21 international and is the typical small, technically excellent winger that seems to proliferate like a plague of locusts in South East Europe. Lotric is one of the better ones and would definitely improve Thistle for a very reasonable wage.

Hashtag of the Summer: #TwoRyanEdwards





Hearts

Expiring Contracts: Alexandros Tziolis, Anastasios Avlonitis, Callum Paterson, Sam Nicholson, Lennard Sowah, Aaron Hughes, Andraz Struna

Loans Ending: Mohamed Cholay

Contract Chat: Apparently, Andraz Struna’s contract hasn’t already been extended (although I’m sure I saw it had been) but, with Callum Paterson definitely off, expect Struna to stay. Ian Cathro has already said that he’d like to keep Aaron Hughes. Sam Nicholson has also confirmed he will be leaving and, as for the others, I suspect Cathro can’t wait to get them out of the club. Hearts need a serious makeover.

Departures?: Hearts need a real makeover so, aside from a couple of players (Jamie Walker, Don Cowie, Jack Hamilton and John Souttar) I’d expect any player is up for sale. The belief at the end of the Neilson era that Hearts had a very decent core of a team has been blown to smithereens in what has been a dire winter and spring.

What do Hearts need?: Left Back, Centre Back, Central midfield, Right Midfield, Striker. Basically, a whole new team wouldn’t go amiss.

It’s perhaps easier to talk about what Hearts won’t change. Jack Hamilton will stay as number one goalkeeper as, while this season has been too early for him, he should surely have matured enough to be a much more solid keeper for next season. John Souttar has been injured, so he gets a pass. Don Cowie and Jamie Walker have contributed and that is more than many have done. Hearts’ key issue have been a real lack of intensity. The January changes and the loss of Paterson were clearly just too much for the club to bear and, aside from a couple of exceptions, Hearts have put in a series of passive performances suggesting that a fair amount of players simply haven’t been doing a shift. This summer, that all needs to change.

Let’s start at left back and try to follow Ian Cathro’s hodge-podge transfer policy of getting cheap, experienced players without any real geographic restriction. We start this little shortlist with Vanderson of Platanias of the Greek Superleague - his bare crossing stats are far better than those of Lennard Sowah and is one of the league leaders in defensive duels showing a real ability to push forward and track his man the whole way up and down the wing, unafraid to be physical. At 32, he’s on the older side but available for free. Closer to home, Luke Leahy of Falkirk is out of contract in June but would be a risk given he hasn’t been proven at this level but has the scope to improve.

Next up are the centre backs. With Souttar, Nowak and (maybe) Hughes, Hearts have an OK lineup assuming all their first choices are available. Part of their issue this season, however, has been that they have been forced to play a Avlonitis or Tziolis in there and, given they naturally play football with a cigar in their mouths, neither has been able to cope with the sheer physicality of the SPFL. Hearts need a player who is happy to get stuck in and whose default choice when presented with a chance to clear isn’t tippy-tappy, it’s to boot/head it as far away as they can. In that respect, they may look as Aberdeen’s Ash Taylor who is out of contract and, while often a bit of a bombscare, never shirks a challenge and is prepared to put his body on the line and, as much as he is often derided, the Aberdeen defence with him as part of it is as mean as they come. At the very least, he’s a damn sight better than any other centre back currently at the club aside from John Souttar.

Moving up to the midfield, Hearts need a complete rejuvenation. Don Cowie isn’t getting younger and Ian Cathro hasn’t been able to get the best out of Perry Kitchen or Arnaud Djoum and, with Malaury Martin failing to impress along with Sam Nicholson leaving, it’s easy to think that Hearts may actually need three midfielders and the domestic market doesn’t really have anything available that they’d need. Haris Vuckic would be a fairly obvious pick given that Cathro will have worked with him at Newcastle in the past and that he has a solid record in Scotland from his time at Rangers. That would leave Hearts still a bit short of combativity in the midfield but would at least provide them with an option that has a bit more craft that what is there now. Along with that, his passing is solid and tends to take place in positions where it matters. He can also play on the right (in a narrow formation similar to what Hearts try to employ with the full backs providing the width instead). In a similar vein (albeit perhaps more effective) would be Charleroi’s Cristian Benevente who has impressed in limited appearances in the Belgian league but should fit into Hearts’ system. From a more defensive perspective, Westerlo’s Khaleem Hyland would seem an ideal fit with a very solid statistical profile in terms of long passing, smart passing and also in terms of defensive match ups.

The final area of the Hearts side that needs improvement is up front, with a need to take the burden of goalscoring from Jamie Walker’s shoulders and injury prone knees given that Bjorn Johnsen appears to have disappeared from the face of the earth. It is an especially intractable problem given that the whole side behind the striker isn’t working. Esma Goncalves is working hard up front but has little in the way of support and his frustration is often pretty obvious to see. If Hearts wanted to push the boat out, then Marko Futacs of Hajduk Split is on the brink of affordable - having moved to England in his early twenties, he found himself not quite mature enough for the EPL and ended up rediscovering his form in the Hungarian Leagues before good moves to Turkey and now Croatia - while Hajduk have been poor this season due to changes of manager not working, Futacs’ form has, at least, been consistent and, on a free, would be a good wage to pay but would have a fairly high chance of success given how classy Futacs can be on his day.

Hashtag of the Summer: #exodus





St Johnstone

Expiring Contracts: Danny Swanson (going to Hibs), Tam Scobbie, Alan Mannus, George Hunter

Loans Ending: Clive Smith

Contract Chat: With Danny Swanson taking his boot away from Ricky Foster and to Hibs (and the inevitable loss of form he has any time he’s away from Perth), only the contracts of Scobbie and Mannus need sorting out. Mannus will, understandably, want to look to move since he has been replaced as number one by Zander Clark. Scobbie will be one Tommy Wright will sort out.

Departures?: With Swanson going, that will more or less be the end of players going out from the club.



What do they need?: A surprisingly long list, all things considered. If Mannus goes, then a back-up keeper. The Defence is fine for another season but there is a need to replace Danny Swanson and have another creative midfielder. It also can’t have escaped Tommy Wright’s attention that the time of relying on Steven Maclean up front has likely passed and the replacements there already aren’t quite good enough to maintain a top four place next season.

For the midfield role, it’s a pity Saints aren’t likely to afford the compensation fee for Craig Sibbald of Falkirk as that move would make sense for everyone but that doesn’t mean that Tommy Wright won’t pluck a Championship player to make the move up - you would fancy Blair Spittal to be worth a chance. Spittal hasn’t had a great season but showed flourishes in his time in the Premiership and can point to his versatility being abused for him not being able to hold down one slot in the Dundee United side this term. At still only 21, there is plenty of potential upside to his game and the slot of becoming to Saints what David Wotherspoon managed to become is a tempting one to take the punt on given Tommy Wright’s more than decent record at turning players who have had an iffy season or two back around to hitting something resembling top form again.

Up front, the key for Saints is to find someone who can replace Maclean not just as a goal threat, but as a link up man and as a leader. Chris Kane isn’t getting there quickly enough (if he does at all) and Saints need a 10-15 goal a season striker for a reasonable price to keep them effective enough as an attacking unit to maintain a top six placing with Hibs back in the Premiership next season. More than any other side, too, St Johnstone have been able to bring a player from the league in and get that little bit extra out of them - as such, Ross County’s Alex Schalk must be on the list. Hard working enough so that his heat map is more or less the entire pitch outside his 18 yard box, Schalk has the ability to beat a man and you would fancy Tommy Wright to be able to refine that into making him a more dangerous threat (for example, his goals this season have all come from the centre of the box but that only accounts for 22 of his 37 shots, the other 15 are slightly wider suggesting an area for him to improve upon in terms of accuracy). Finally, if St Johnstone feel like casting the net far further than normal, they could do far worse than Sean Maguire of Cork City. He maintained an entirely reasonable record of scoring 1 in 4 as a 20 year old in League Two last time he was in the UK and that has accelerated to 26 in 40 in the League of Ireland which makes him the perfect candidate to move back across and into a higher level - interest has been there from English Championship side Preston, but it’d be hard not to see St Johnstone as a handy stepping stone between Ireland and England. He would cost a fee (reportedly, he has a clause for £125k) but St Johnstone are one of the few clubs that could push the boat out that little bit if need be given that this season has gone better than expected both in terms of position and also in terms of attendances.

Hashtag of the Summer: #continuity





Rangers

Expiring contracts: Philippe Senderos, Clint Hill

Loans Ending: Jon Toral, Emerson Hyndman

Contract Chat: Hill may be kept - an offer is on the table, but it’s very much up in the air as to whether he wants to stay another year with Pedro Caixinha in charge after what has been a very draining (and sometimes embarrassing) season.

Departures?: *Cracks Knuckles* It is not an exaggeration to say that, much like Hearts, rip it up and start again may be what dictates transfer policy this summer. It also isn’t an exaggeration that there might not be lots of money available (there need to be) and that players will have to go out to see some much needed ones come in. On that list, Wes Foderingham has turned into a very good goalkeeper and, while the hype that associated to him of potentially being an England keeper isn’t quite true, he has proven himself more than good enough to earn a move up the food chain - no top six keeper has made more saves than Foderingham and no keeper in the SPFL has a higher ratio of reflex saves to saves than he has showing that, not only is he being made to work more than anyone in the top half, he’s pulling off better saves more often than anyone. There have been a couple of off games in amongst it all, but no more so that any other goalkeeper at this level or at a level above it.

James Tavernier, according to people with statistical circles that talk about xA, key passes and defensive duels more than I, is about the best full back in the league and, while I can certainly imagine a few people would beg to differ, like Foderingham, he has it in him to move up a grade from Rangers to the English Championship where all out attack full backs are more prized. Barrie McKay is unlikely to go anywhere having looked out of his depth this season (although any seven figure fee would likely be accepted), but it’s hard to think Pedro Caixinha won’t want to cut his losses on Martyn Waghorn and Joe Garner, neither of whom score now in enough volume to convince - they will have moves on for them in England. Michael O’Halloran will be punted wherever will have him (albeit wages may be an issue there) and Harry Forrester doesn’t appear to have a future under Caixinha.

What do they need?: A Defence would come in handy - like I said, Wes Foderingham has been excellent and he has had to be. Balance in the midfield would be next on the list. Oh, and a striker that scores goals. And a big chequebook.

Rangers need to spend to even catch Aberdeen. The side, as it is, is a mess of players who didn’t fit Mark Warburton’s system, don’t fit Pedro Caixinha’s system, are constantly or are just plain not good enough. The few players where Rangers have got it right are fair bets to move on during the summer to somewhere that will make them richer than Rangers can right now. While talk of it costing £100m to reach Celtic is ludicrous (mostly because Rangers do not have £100m nor are likely to do for the next few decades), my own back of a fag packet maths would have it down that they need to spend £8m to get second place and at least keep up the pretence of some sort of rivalry with Celtic.

Caixinha wants to play a fairly basic 4-4-2/4-4-1-1 with cover in the form of decent holding midfielders. He played that against Celtic and against Partick Thistle and only not having the personnel has kept him from doing it more given Rangers lack midfield width and lack midfielders who are naturally comfortable with sitting and defending (see A Halliday and J Holt - perfectly capable of getting stuck in, but not of screening a defence or tracking a runner). As a result, he has been forced into either playing a narrow diamond with the full backs providing width (as he seems not to rate Barrie McKay) or having to shove Miller or Waghorn out wide to act as a not all that natural winger (with varying levels of success). So, with that in mind we can narrow Pedro Caixinha’s wish list down to…

What do they need?: A centre back or two, a proper holding midfielder, a good attacking midfielder, a pair of wingers and a striker. And replacements for anyone who leaves. Even that can be rounded down to…

What can they realistically get away with?: A Holding midfielder, two wingers and a striker. And, barring a defender coming available that’s too good a deal to not bring in, that’ll be it. Dave King will likely restrict Caixinha to what he really needs to get and, while it would be a risk, it would be one he could get away with were he to decide that Wilson/Kiernan/Hill are up to the task but that the problem this season has been that they’ve been offered no protection by the midfield (in part, thanks to Jordan Rossiter being permanently injured) or by Mark Warburton’s game plan. That’s probably a fair assessment although I’d personally be uncomfortable relying on just those three and not bringing in a central defender anyway. There is also the need for Rangers to make a marquee signing to sell season tickets much as Joey Barton was (ironically, he’d have been ideal for how Caixinha will want to play). With that in mind, the combination of name recognition, positional suitability and affordability would cross most with Guingamp’s Mathieu Bodmer. Bodmer is still, at 34, getting decent levels of game time in Ligue 1 and, having had a career that has encompassed every French side worth playing for, is at an age where the step down to a slightly lower level might serve to keep his career going a little longer - Rangers have done similar with French players prior to 2012 with varying levels of success but, given how Caixinha will want to set up his side, Bodmer would at least be a round peg fitting into a round hole. The other issue is that the player to fill this role could be at the club already in Jordan Rossiter but, given Rossiter has a CV full more of injury gaps than playing time, can Caixinha take the risk of trying to rely upon him?

To skip past the wings for now and into the striker’s role, as soon as Caixinha was confirmed, there was a link that he would bring Krisztian Nemeth with him from Al Gharafa. Nemeth’s contract is up in the summer and was Caixinha’s signing in the first place. While some may naturally look at another Al Gharafa player, Vladimir Weiss (who has shown almost Nacho Novo commitment to making sure he always appears staunch) to make his return to Scotland, Nemeth is the more suitable. His goals return this season hasn’t been amazing (although he did score 7 in 10 in his first season in Qatar not to mention his decent MLS scoring record) and he is in the prime age bracket of his career and, crucially for how Caixinha will want to play, he is well suited to working up front as a main striker either being fed chances or feeding them for others. That aspect of his play will be most encouraging for Caixinha given that he will have Kenny Miller working to create space and chances for him. Wages will be an issue (as they are with anyone playing in Qatar) but Caixinha will surely see it as a fairly safe bet.

This, ultimately, leaves the question of the wings and, to that, we must return to another earlier statement - to get back to second and to do it convincingly, Rangers need to splash out £8m to do enough to blow Aberdeen out of the water. For that particular role, Rangers have to rely on being able to out-spend clubs to bring players in. Nemeth and Bodmer will likely take up £1.5-2m of that £8m in wages and signing on fees alone. Based on this season and on Rangers’ projected income being broadly equal to what they will have budgeted for this season, that leaves another £2m to play with that will be in the bank now and a potential £4m that needs to be recouped from player sales before replacements. Not to sound too dismissive, but even selling Foderingham, McKay, Tavernier, Garner and Waghorn is only likely to bring £3m in before any of those players are actually replaced (albeit, arguably, for the first three, replacements are either not needed or already at the club). Added to that is that the sheer economics of the game mean that recruiting from England is not exactly an ideal market. As such, to do this, I’m going to pick our two players as one who I’d spend money on that I know but who isn’t likely to be on Rangers’ radar and one who obviously would be but perhaps might not be affordable.

Actually, there is one other. While it’s extremely unlikely, Niall McGinn is out of contract, is better than any winger at the club at the moment but it would be such a wind up of a signing that would get fans of Rangers, Celtic and Aberdeen in a state that I can’t see it being worth the risk.

If they wanted to go down the route of having an attacking midfielder centrally, then they could do far worse than look at Amer Gojak of Dinamo Zagreb. The Bosnian under 21 international has been on the fringes of the Dinamo side this term but when given an opportunity, has made the most of it, including scoring 4 goals in a single game vs Cibalia. His contract is fairly long but, as the next in the pecking order behind guys like Ante Coric and Sammir, tempting him with a far better wage that he could hope to get at this point in his career now to get him to jump the queue to stardom might be a good idea. That, however, takes us away from the wings and it’s another player from the Croatian league that Rangers should take a look at - Fran Tudor.

Fran, a distant relative of Igor, is able to play both wings and also right back if need be, which offers both a threat in an attacking sense and also an assurance that he is going to track back and has solid defensive sensibilities when required. Currently at a Hajduk Split side which is (generously) going nowhere fast in terms of being a relevant force domestically. Statistically, he is an excellent dribbler and, while his crossing has a lower success rate than you would like to see, that is partly down to the league he is in and one would expect to see a marked uptick in effectiveness in a Scottish league which is less focused on wing play and combatting it. Most importantly, he is as solid defensively as he is in attack - this season he has won 80% of attacking duels, he has also won 55% of his defensive ones: stats similar to those pulled off by James Tavernier but playing far further up the pitch. He has previously been scouted by Italian clubs (including, apparently, AC Milan) and been labelled as the Croatian Fiorenzi albeit the comparison works when discussing type of player alone - I would not look at the Hajduk team right now and think any player is capable of making a step up to holding down a spot in a good side in one of the big 4 leagues. Scotland isn’t a big 4 league, however, but is a definite step up in terms of visibility to English clubs and, for his career, shining in the SPFL in a team that will be dominant most of the time is surely preferable to a Hajduk side who have disappointed all over the pitch this season. He has previously been touted at about £3m last summer but, one more year into his contract and a disappointing season for the club in general surely take at least £1m from that. Were Rangers to pitch up with a offer in the region of the £1.8m they paid for Joe flipping Garner, I would expect Hajduk to bite. In the short term, it would move Rangers closer to how Caixinha wants to play - in the medium term, it would surely yield a nice profit in a couple of seasons time.

Finally, looking at the other category - players who would be obvious but that Rangers might not find affordable - takes us down to England and to the Championship. Everyone’s favourite human headbutt simulator Kyle Lafferty is not just out of contract at Norwich, he’s also out of favour on what would seem a permanent basis. While writing this as a Celtic fan, it’s hard not to have a little bit of schadenfreude at seeing someone who was an intensely dislikable character not having the best time of things, he would be a popular signing for Rangers and is versatile enough to stick out on the wing and contribute far more than a Martyn Waghorn. The issue is that with being on a decent English team means he is on decent English wages (rumoured to be on around £15k per week) - there would be a question over whether that would be a wise way to spend your money for Rangers for a player who hasn’t recently been cutting it at English Championship level. To make an even more outlandish statement would be to attempt to sign Derby’s Johnny Russell - Russell has only 12 months left on his Derby contract and was close to a move away in January. Without a doubt, that likelihood of a move will only have increased in the past few months while his price will have gone down but would still reside above £1.5m and would be worth the extra to pay compared to bringing in another Championship winger (eg Craig Conway).

Obviously, I’ve spent far more time talking about Rangers than any other club so far but the task at hand is so much greater compared to even Hearts (about whom I’ve also said need more or less a new team) because, while Hearts have a tactical outlook in place that isn’t going to vary wildly between here and the autumn (merely some of the parts in it will be changed about), Rangers need work not just in terms of switching the parts within the side, but also switching what the parts are making up. Hearts are simply rebuilding an engine, Rangers are trying to make an engine but currently have a Nespresso machine. That requires a lot more work and a lot more talking about.

Hashtag of the Summer: #RedesignRebuildReclaim





Aberdeen

Confirmed Signing: Greg Tansey

Expiring Contracts: Niall McGinn, Ryan Jack, Ash Taylor, Neil Alexander, Aaron Lennox, Peter Pawlett

Loans to End: Ryan Christie

Contract Chat: While, on the face of it, Aberdeen will finish second and there is little reason to think they won’t next season, a quick look at that list of players who will be off shows that, actually, there might be a few issues ahead. Niall McGinn and Ryan Jack will both definitely be going and, with both back up goalkeepers going along with Pawlett and Taylor then Aberdeen suddenly begin to look a bit short even with on loan players coming back. While this might be the season Aberdeen just keep a hold of Danny Rogers rather than loan him out, no other returnees are up to scratch at this time.

Ash Taylor is probably the one player over whom there would be a question as to whether to keep or let go. He is slightly less reliable than other options already at the club but still has something to offer. In Derek McInnes’ shoes, releasing him would feature slightly more prominently in my thoughts than keeping him but there is a solid case to be made either way.

Departures?: Aberdeen aren’t under any pressure to sell financially and will probably take the view that contracts expiring will rob them of enough already. Of the key players in the side, only Kenny McLean and Shay Logan have contracts up next season - Rangers have been linked to McLean but it would be little short of astonishing were the Dons to sell McLean to them. An offer wouldn’t be entertained from Rangers, even if it was far higher than McLean’s actual value. As for Logan, his contract will run down until next January and then a decision will be made.

What do they need?: Central defender definitely, central midfielder definitely and a winger along with some extra depth in most areas to make up for lost numbers and for moves that previously haven’t worked out as planned.

But first, a mention of Greg Tansey. Tansey will obviously slot straight into the midfield and, were Aberdeen to simply use Tansey as a replacement for Ryan Jack and do nothing else, they would get away with being slightly less effective but not lose that much in doing so.

However, that’s the kind of thinking you don’t really want to see from a club and Aberdeen should not be looking to begin a managed decline or, at least, an acceptance that their spot as Scotland’s Third Club is shortly about to become a reality in the league table. That isn’t a criticism of Greg Tansey but replacing Ryan Jack directly with him is a bit like swapping a Lexus for a Vauxhall when you could be driving a Bentley instead.

The second thing to mention is that Aberdeen’s scouting brief for this summer has already been revealed. While there will still be a partial focus on England and Scotland, special focus has been given to what have been deemed “unappreciated markets” where Aberdeen can bring in good players and also be able to beat teams in those markets when it comes to wages: the three I’ve specifically been told about have been Portugal, Croatia and Iceland although it would be fair to assume that you could widen that to Slovenia, Slovakia and Hungary as well - all EU countries with decent enough leagues but without the comparative riches of the Scottish game (which, in the over 5 years of this website, must be the first time I’ve ever written that statement).

This, helpfully, narrows our list of players down a heck of a lot and, given this is probably the only Scottish football site which will happily put out pieces on Croatian, Serbian and Slovenian football (because I’m watching it every week), that means that there is also the benefit of being able to sort the wheat from the chaff already for some countries in that region.

To begin the player talk at the centre back position, Aberdeen are in need of that sort of hard man central defender they have not quite gotten right over the past few years. The closest thing they have to it now is Ash Taylor but Taylor isn’t the most reliable and, while the signing of Anthony O’Connor last season paid off, they slot next to him in the defence is up for grabs for an uncompromising granite-faced death-staring consistent lunatic to tear it up next to him - put simply, Aberdeen need their own Jozo Simunovic which means we get to take a wonderful trip to the Slovenian youth set up and the babyfaced Tine Kavcic. The 23 year old has four seasons of full first team experience behind him along with plenty of Under 21 caps and, in terms of the best young defenders in the Prva Liga, he is the most high profile not contracted to Maribor or Olimpija. The Gorica back line he is the central part of is not just as mean as they come, it’s also as clean as they come conceding under a goal a game this season and no team has conceded as few fouls - the job is done effectively and with as little fuss as possible. Kavcic also has a very decent range of passing with a surprising level of crossing ability for a natural centre back and the disregard for human life (his or his opponents) in the last ditch tackles that you want to see. The one issue for Aberdeen may be the involvement of a fee but it would be a far from unreasonable one - likely £250k at most would be enough to get Gorica to bite.

Moving up the park to the midfield slot vacated by Ryan Jack and only partly replaced by Greg Tansey and to my assertion that, while Tansey is all well and good, Aberdeen should really be looking to use him as back up and trade up a little but this is probably the sort of signing to look at the loan market for as opposed to bringing someone in on a permanent deal (at least to see if Tansey can step it up a level as much to make sure that there is depth in that midfield) as to take the side from where it is now to where it wants to be isn’t a cheap endeavour and I don’t aim to scour English youth teams to pick out a James Maddison. Were Aberdeen wanting to spend on bringing in a player to improve the side that much, then even the under-appreciated markets they are looking at don’t really offer much comfort. The best deal may be on MSK Zilina’s Miroslav Kacer whose contract is up in December (Zilina’s last player to come to Scotland? Dusan Pernis). Kacer is, at 21, the heartbeat of the best team in Slovakia by a country mile. A diminutive 5 foot 6 but as hustling and bustling a midfielder as they come, one could almost compare him to Scott Brown in play style - he niggles, he runs, he works hard and he has added end product this season with 4 goals to his name which, for a player who is ostensibly a defensive midfielder, is a decent return. The economics of the deal should be relatively simple - the opportunity at Aberdeen for Kacer to make his name, become a core international player and to make himself rich is much the same for him in his situation as it is for Ryan Jack to move to MLS. With his contract up in December, Zilina will likely be appreciative for an acceptable offer rather than losing him for nothing at the end of the year.

Coming to the Niall McGinn shaped hole in the side, it’s worth noting that I write this never really having been a big fan of McGinn in the first place and, if anything, I suspect Aberdeen will be better off without him and having a Jonny Hayes type on the flank who can beat a man with pace, get to the byline and whip a solid cross in than having McGinn’s traits and his slightly dubious decision making. Furthermore, Aberdeen’s flanks are always slightly unbalanced with the right side having two attacking players in Hayes and Logan and, this season, having Considine who sits back more and McGinn who cuts inside more. While it’s silly to suggest that the Dons immediately throw away that balance (particularly as Considine plays an important defensive role in tucking in and creating a central defensive three as and when required rather than having to drop a player back from the midfield as Celtic do with Scott Brown), it’s right to suggest that it can be tweaked a bit to make Aberdeen that little bit more focused on wing play down the outside and to make cutting in the preserve of times when wingers need to be swapped. First up on that block is a name familiar to some - Haris Duljevic of Sarajevo. Duljevic is a bit more Hayes-y than McGinn-y and has been scouted by plenty of clubs but, with his contract up in the summer, no move has yet materialised - writing this on the 1st of May, one would expect that that now means big clubs have had their look at him and chosen to pass and that could be to Aberdeen’s benefit - why wait for a lower-table Bundesliga side to move when the Dons can and offer a more competitive environment? Duljevic is a natural left winger but has played in a more central role often for FK Sarajevo this season - even with that in mind he is completing, on average, 8 successful dribbles per game and beating defenders most of the time with those runs with the ball at feet. That is a very high rate and, while people will naturally scoff at the Bosnian league, it has one of the lowest goals per game ratios in Europe - he is racking up prodigious stats against solid, organised teams. If Aberdeen move quickly, they could beat a whole host of names to his signature and would, in my opinion at least, have gone and made a signing that would show a hell of a lot of positive intent coming into next season.

If the Dons want to stick with a more McGinn type player, then they would be well served to look at Dino Hotic of Maribor. Hotic is a naturally left footed player and, originally, began his career as a left sided midfielder but has come into his own with a move onto the opposite flank providing consistently good delivery and offering an option down the outside and on cutting back and crossing. Defensively, he is sound but would be a player looking at needing a fee paid for him - potentially £500k - which would possibly put the Dons out of the running.

The other element of Aberdeen to be aware of is their preference to bring in players domestically. Sam Nicholson of Hearts has been linked on a free transfer which would be an interesting pick up but, like Tansey, would be an extremely unambitious one. Nicholson does have the potential to kick on and become a star but injuries have held him back at Hearts and there is no guarantee that simply having consistent football and a change in scenery would actually bring anything extra out of him. Similar could be said about Jordan Jones of Killie who has impressed in his season at the club but would need a leap in performance to be worth it for the Dons.

However, the real target could be a move for Ross County’s Liam Boyce. Boyce is a striker in a similar mould to Adam Rooney up front for the Dons now but arguably, would provide more to the club that Rooney does currently (and Rooney provides a lot). Boyce’s predatory instincts have never been questioned and, after three years in Dingwall, the issues of fitness that initially hindered his move to Scotland are far in the past. At 26, he is coming into his peak years (Rooney is 29) and an argument can be made that, while Boyce’s finishing is very streaky (6 in his first five games of the season was followed by 2 barren months then 7 in 8 before the split), the increased volume of chances and the improved quality of chances that a side like Aberdeen creates compared to Ross County would be enough to negate that medium term consistency issue and turn Boyce into a player who is reproducing his most deadly form on a more regular basis. Boyce is involved in a game more than Rooney (per 90 minutes, Boyce is involved in 27 more game events than Rooney on average) and his 20 goals this season come from 40 shots as opposed to Rooney’s 14 from 55. With that in mind, even accepting that Boyce rarely plays the lone striker role that Rooney is asked to do as County don’t use that system, it would look a statistical no-brainer. The issue would be cost and, barring any hidden clauses in his contract (which actually wouldn’t be all that surprising), County would surely ask for at least £500k for a player whom has been the difference between remaining a Premiership side and not this season.





Hashtag of the Summer: #MyChoiceisBoyce