John Boehner and his team have so far steadfastly resisted the idea. | JAY WESTCOTT/POLITICO Millionaire tax isn't off the table

A certain wave of realism is sweeping through the House Republican ranks: It might be hard to resist a tax rate hike on millionaires.

It’s not that they’re about to fully embrace President Barack Obama’s tax hikes, but many Republican lawmakers privately concede that the 2012 election left them with far short of a mandate on taxes, and if urged by Democrats to raise rates on what they dub the mega-wealthy, they will have a tough time resisting.


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It’s a development that should concern Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and his leadership team, who have steadfastly refused to entertain a hike in tax rates on anyone.

“I think it will still be a heavy lift,” Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) said without dismissing the idea out of hand. “You are going to have to view the whole package to see all what’s in it. You get as much as you can, but I still think it will be a heavy lift.”

Since the election, Boehner has said House Republicans have a strong mandate to keep tax rates frozen. Not even millionaires, he said, should see an increase in their rates.

But conversations with more than a dozen Republicans — from across the ideological spectrum — tell a different story. Hardly anyone ruled out a tax rate increase on the wealthy.

“I certainly think we have to have an open mind, and that includes any and all scenarios,” Florida Rep. Tom Rooney said of fiscal cliff negotiations, noting that he will support Boehner in his negotiations. “Do I believe that higher taxes on small-business owners will help with jobs? Hell no. We have to find a way forward, or we’re going to have to go back to our constituencies just like last Congress saying, ‘We couldn’t come up with anything for this country.’”

This isn’t only a fear ricocheting through the rank and file. Some higher-ranking Republicans, including South Carolina Rep. Tim Scott, who was elected to leadership for a second term last week, say they know lawmakers look like they could buckle on a million-dollar threshold.

“Oh, absolutely,” Scott said when asked if some of his fellow Republicans will support the increase. “People are actually coming out saying that.” Scott said he would oppose tax hikes even if the threshold is raised.

There are a few reasons. Republicans’ negotiating strategy is predicated on extending all rates at the same time — not just those under $250,000, like Obama is suggesting. Republicans suggest that letting rates lapse on higher-income earners would hurt small businesses across the country.

If Washington sends the nation pummeling off a fiscal cliff, with tax rates increasing for every single American, because Republicans won’t raise the upper rates, lawmakers could once again face constituents fed up with inside-the-Beltway gridlock.

Then there’s the populist strain that runs through the conservative wing of the party. It’s long been a fear of House Republican leadership, and it could be coming home to roost: How can members from middle-class districts stand in opposition to hiking taxes on millionaires?

“The thing that we want to do is have the small businessmen, single-filers filtered out; there has to be a good comfort level on that,” Georgia Rep. Jack Kingston said. “We also debate the belief that we need more revenue. However, [if you ask me], if you had a dollar in revenue for eight dollars in spending, … I think that would be a deal we should really look at. You could debate the source of revenue from tax simplification to taxes on the super-wealthy or whatever, but I think you can find a way to make it happen.”

Missouri Rep. Jo Ann Emerson echoed Kingston, saying she is having her staff look into separating small-business owners who file their taxes differently from regular earners.

The softening on tax rates comes as Republican thought leaders, like Bill Kristol, have publicly come forward arguing that the GOP shouldn’t “fall on its sword” for keeping the taxes lower for millionaires. Others in the business community, including Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, have said corporate leaders aren’t opposed to increasing taxes for the wealthy if it is combined with cuts in discretionary spending and entitlements.

Some Democrats have also embraced the idea of raising taxes on millionaires as a compromise. Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin has said the 2012 election was a referendum on raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Obama campaigned on raising taxes on earners who make more than $250,000. Publicly, Republicans say they want to freeze all tax rates until mid-2013, when they will be able to complete tax reform. Republican aides have privately quizzed their Democratic counterparts on whether they’d be open to moving that threshold, according to sources with knowledge of those conversations. Right now, both sides are holding their powder dry until after Friday’s White House meeting.

But Republicans freely acknowledge that, yes, their plan would force the wealthy to pay more. They are preparing to eliminate loopholes and deductions — a revenue-raiser that was an unthinkable proposition in 2011.

But while Boehner has taken a strong line publicly, Republicans concede they don’t hold the same political fortunes they did in 2010.

The 2012 election — when millionaire Mitt Romney ran with an outsize focus on his effective tax rate in the background — put into sharp focus the party’s problem of looking like it caters to the wealthy.

“Does it bother me that as an example somebody like Romney can make what he makes and pay 14 percent, yeah,” Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson said. “But how do you address that? Not by raising rates, but by eliminating all the exemptions that allow him to pay 14 percent. That makes more sense to me.”