Kicking off the list is President Obama's 2014 State of the Union address. | John Shinkle/POLITICO 14 dates to watch in 2014

Mark your calendars and buckle up: 2014 is an election year with control of the Senate, House and 36 governorships at stake.

A key enrollment deadline for President Barack Obama’s health law looms, as does a major Supreme Court ruling on its contraception coverage requirements. The battle for the soul of the GOP will intensify, while the economic recovery faces its own challenges. Oh, and ever hear of a thing called Fancy Farm?


Here are POLITICO’s top 14 dates to watch in 2014.

Jan. 28 – State of the Union

The president said in his most recent news conference that “2014 needs to be a year of action.” He will flesh out what that means during his State of the Union speech.

Obama becomes more of a lame duck with each annual update to Congress, and, faced with strong Republican opposition, it’s likely many of the priorities he outlines will go nowhere. Still, the State of the Union is an important platform for any president, and this is a chance for Obama to convey how much of his diminishing political capital he will invest in pursuing immigration reform, making the health care law work and other priorities.

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Whatever he says will be the Democratic rallying cry for the months ahead.

March 6-8 — CPAC

The annual Conservative Political Action Conference will bring thousands of activists to the Gaylord convention center just outside of D.C. and offer a window into the mood of the Republican base.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the big winner of 2013’s much-watched straw poll because the confab came right after his anti-drone filibuster and catapulted him into the ranks of mainstream acceptability.

The movement remains divided between libertarians and conservatives, and the conference will show who is up and who is down in this period that the GOP lacks a standard-bearer.

Gov. Chris Christie did not get invited last year because of his breaks with conservative orthodoxy. Now that he’s been reelected in New Jersey, will he come to make nice with the right? Does Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) get rewarded for his (unsuccessful) push to defund Obamacare? Stay tuned.

March 11 — Florida, Florida, Florida

The special election to fill the seat opened up by the death of Republican Rep. Bill Young will generate an immense amount of news coverage. It is a genuinely competitive district around Tampa on the crucial Interstate 4 corridor.

Whichever party wins will present the result as a major national bellwether going into the midterms. The losing party will probably blame their nominee and downplay the significance.

The Democratic candidate, Alex Sink, narrowly lost a 2010 run for governor and passed on a rematch. She will take on the winner of a Jan. 14 Republican primary in what’s sure to be one of the costliest House races of the cycle.

March 19 — Yellen’s first presser

Janet Yellen is set to be formally confirmed as Federal Reserve chairwoman in January. Her first Fed meeting will be March 18-19, and a news conference afterward will signal how much monetary policy might change on her watch.

( PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)

The stock market, which had an extraordinary 2013, will hang on her every word. Yellen’s challenge is to draw down the stimulus without spooking markets or overly slowing economic growth. The news conference could also shed light on how committed the Fed is to pushing down the unemployment rate, which has obvious implications for the midterm elections.

March 31 — Obamacare D-Day

This is the end of the enrollment period for the first year of the new Obamacare exchanges, the last date people can buy insurance to avoid paying a penalty on their 2014 taxes. We’ll finally know how many people signed up for health plans under the law in the first year.

It will be a key messaging opportunity for proponents of the Affordable Care Act to talk about the benefits of reform and for detractors to highlight the problems with the rollout.

Late March-June – Raising the debt ceiling

There is no definitive date yet for when Congress will again need to raise the debt ceiling. The Treasury Department has suggested February or March. The Congressional Budget Office says it could be as late as June.

Highlighting the out-of-control debt is a winning issue for Republicans, but flirting with economic catastrophe is not. Obama again insists he will not negotiate. Some conservatives think that Republicans must push for concessions, and other Republicans believe that going to the brink will scare major donors and spook independents.

Mid-June — SCOTUS Watch

The Supreme Court will revisit Obamacare again this term, reviewing the requirement that most employers provide contraceptive coverage in their employee health insurance plans. Justices will likely hear an hour of oral arguments in March and announce a decision at the end of the term in June.

A lower court ruled, on religious freedom grounds, that Hobby Lobby stores do not need to provide contraceptive coverage for their workers. The Obama administration is appealing.

No matter how it is decided, social conservatives and women’s rights groups will mobilize. Republicans will be accused again of waging a “war on women,” and Democrats will be attacked for allegedly infringing on religious freedoms.

July 22 — Georgia runoff

Democrats hope, and the Republican establishment fears, that Rep. Paul Broun will win the GOP’s Senate nomination. The conservative congressman’s ardent opposition to abortion and evolution (he’s called it a lie “straight from the pit of hell”) could make it difficult to hold an open seat in a state that’s trending from red to purple.

A wide-open primary on May 20 pits three current House members against businessman David Perdue and former Secretary of State Karen Handel. The top two finishers will face off on July 22. Many expect Broun, who argues that any Republican could win the general, to make the runoff and face someone who might be more acceptable to party leaders.

( PHOTOS: Governors’ offices up for grabs in 2014)

Democrat Michelle Nunn, the daughter of moderate former Sen. Sam Nunn, is running as a centrist and she lacks a record of public statements tying her to Obama. In a year when the president’s party is playing defense, this is a rare pickup opportunity. And the runoff will show how worried a conservative electorate is about electability versus purity.

Aug. 2 — Fancy Farm

This annual picnic in rural Kentucky, always a huge draw for politicians, is famous for the give and take between candidates and voters. The 2014 shindig could prove a significant moment in the race for Mitch McConnell’s seat in the Senate.

The minority leader is expected to first fend off businessman Matt Bevin in a May 20 GOP primary. By Fancy Farm time, the 71-year-old will be trying to win over conservatives by connecting his Democratic challenger, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, with Obama, the health law and the president’s “war on coal.”

Aug. 19 — Wyoming and Alaska

If Republican Scott Brown does not run for Senate in New Hampshire, where he would need to fend off challengers from his right in a Sept. 9 primary, the last primaries with national significance will happen in these two western states in mid-August.

Liz Cheney is taking on Sen. Mike Enzi in Wyoming. The former vice president’s daughter, who just moved to the state a year ago, is trying to convince a relatively small primary electorate that the incumbent has been there too long and is not vocal enough about his conservatism. She’s the underdog, but her family connections will help.

Alaska Democratic Sen. Mark Begich is very beatable, but there’s an intense three-way GOP primary. Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan are competing for establishment money and support, while tea party favorite Joe Miller attempts a comeback. Party honchos fear Miller would blow the chance to beat Begich, costing the party a must-win seat.

Oct. 3 – Unemployment

The final unemployment report before the midterms posts at 8:30 a.m. on this Friday. Less important than the number of new jobs is the direction the unemployment rate is moving.

The perception that the economy continues to improve could work in the Democrats’ favor and blunt general frustration with the mess in D.C. from turning into a change election.

The post-Labor Day period is when most voters begin to tune in, so the economic indicators in this homestretch matter much more than any reports earlier in the year.

October surprise?

Conventional wisdom now is that Republicans will hold the House and Democrats the Senate … barring a surprise.

In 2006, a bad year for Republicans became much worse when Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) resigned over instant messages he traded with boys who had been congressional pages.

Superstorm Sandy hurt late Mitt Romney in 2012, limiting his ability to campaign and giving Obama the chance to appear with Christie and look presidential. Likewise, the release of the “47 percent” tape — which came in September — could be counted as an “October surprise” that undercut Romney.

A foreign policy crisis — anywhere from Syria to North Korea — also could shake up the races ahead of …

Nov. 4 — Election Day

Republicans should be optimistic: The president’s party tends to lose seats in the sixth year of his term — the so-called “sixth-year itch.” Still, even if that trend holds, will Republicans capture enough seats to control the Senate? Or will the president’s base come home one last time, shocking the GOP the way they did in 2012?

And, of course, the 2016 presidential campaign begins in earnest on Nov. 5 …

Dec. 6 — Louisiana

Control of the Senate could come down to a runoff in the bayou.

The state does not have a primary, so Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy must fend off challenges from tea partiers such as Rob Maness through Election Day even as he keeps his fire trained on Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu.

She is one of the most vulnerable incumbents, winning her two previous races with only 52 percent. Obama lost the state by 17 points, and she has previously been a vocal supporter of Obamacare.

Anyone can win outright if they get over 50 percent of the vote, but polls show Landrieu falling short. Divided Republicans create the possibility that Landrieu could find herself without a majority and then get one last shot to survive.