Timothy Stanley, a conservative, is a historian and columnist for Britain's Daily Telegraph. He is the author of " Citizen Hollywood: How the Collaboration Between LA and DC Revolutionized American Politics. " The opinions expressed in this commentary are his.

(CNN) Donald Trump is preparing to lose. I don't mean that he definitely will be defeated or that he consciously thinks, "It's all over." Rather, his rhetoric betrays a shift in psychology.

Until recently it was all, "I'm going to win." Suddenly he's coming up with reasons why he might not.

Reason number one: The Democrats will cheat. In Ohio, he said the election might be "rigged." In Pennsylvania, he said the only possible way he could lose the state is if individual Democrats "vote five times."

Trump is famous for saying something sincerely only to insist later on that he was being sarcastic -- so take note of how deadly serious he sounded. He said: "The only way we can lose, in my opinion -- I really mean this, Pennsylvania -- is if cheating goes on." Not a hint of satire in that.

Reason number two: T he media aren't giving him a fair shot. Trump seems particularly sore about a New York Times piece t hat claims his organization is in despair and the candidate out of his depth.

"Crooked Hillary Clinton is being protected by the media," Trump complained on Twitter, adding, "If the disgusting and corrupt media covered me honestly and didn't put false meaning into the words I say, I would be beating Hillary by 20%."

If the disgusting and corrupt media covered me honestly and didn't put false meaning into the words I say, I would be beating Hillary by 20% — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2016

At this point it's necessary for me to break away from writing this to laugh. Seriously?

The opposite is true: Trump would be 20 points ahead if the media stopped covering him. Why? Because Clinton is probably the weakest nominee the Democrats have chosen since 1856. The only reason why the Republican nominee isn't beating Mrs. Benghazi is because he is Donald Trump.

Photos: Donald Trump's rise President-elect Donald Trump has been in the spotlight for years. From developing real estate and producing and starring in TV shows, he became a celebrity long before winning the White House. Hide Caption 1 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump at age 4. He was born in 1946 to Fred and Mary Trump in New York City. His father was a real estate developer. Hide Caption 2 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, left, in a family photo. He was the second-youngest of five children. Hide Caption 3 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, center, stands at attention during his senior year at the New York Military Academy in 1964. Hide Caption 4 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, center, wears a baseball uniform at the New York Military Academy in 1964. After he graduated from the boarding school, he went to college. He started at Fordham University before transferring and later graduating from the Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania's business school. Hide Caption 5 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump stands with Alfred Eisenpreis, New York's economic development administrator, in 1976 while they look at a sketch of a new 1,400-room renovation project of the Commodore Hotel. After graduating college in 1968, Trump worked with his father on developments in Queens and Brooklyn before purchasing or building multiple properties in New York and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Those properties included Trump Tower in New York and Trump Plaza and multiple casinos in Atlantic City. Hide Caption 6 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends an event to mark the start of construction of the New York Convention Center in 1979. Hide Caption 7 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump wears a hard hat at the Trump Tower construction site in New York in 1980. Hide Caption 8 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump was married to Ivana Zelnicek Trump from 1977 to 1990, when they divorced. They had three children together: Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric. Hide Caption 9 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise The Trump family, circa 1986. Hide Caption 10 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump uses his personal helicopter to get around New York in 1987. Hide Caption 11 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump stands in the atrium of the Trump Tower. Hide Caption 12 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends the opening of his new Atlantic City casino, the Taj Mahal, in 1989. Hide Caption 13 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump signs his second book, "Trump: Surviving at the Top," in 1990. Trump has published at least 16 other books, including "The Art of the Deal" and "The America We Deserve." Hide Caption 14 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump and singer Michael Jackson pose for a photo before traveling to visit Ryan White, a young child with AIDS, in 1990. Hide Caption 15 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump dips his second wife, Marla Maples, after the couple married in a private ceremony in New York in December 1993. The couple divorced in 1999 and had one daughter together, Tiffany. Hide Caption 16 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump putts a golf ball in his New York office in 1998. Hide Caption 17 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise An advertisement for the television show "The Apprentice" hangs at Trump Tower in 2004. The show launched in January of that year. In January 2008, the show returned as "Celebrity Apprentice." Hide Caption 18 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise A 12-inch talking Trump doll is on display at a toy store in New York in September 2004. Hide Caption 19 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends a news conference in 2005 that announced the establishment of Trump University. From 2005 until it closed in 2010, Trump University had about 10,000 people sign up for a program that promised success in real estate. Three separate lawsuits -- two class-action suits filed in California and one filed by New York's attorney general -- argued that the program was mired in fraud and deception. Trump's camp rejected the suits' claims as "baseless." And Trump has charged that the New York case against him is politically motivated. Hide Caption 20 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends the U.S. Open tennis tournament with his third wife, Melania Knauss-Trump, and their son, Barron, in 2006. Trump and Knauss married in 2005. Hide Caption 21 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump wrestles with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin at WrestleMania in 2007. Trump has close ties with the WWE and its CEO, Vince McMahon. Hide Caption 22 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise For "The Apprentice," Trump was honored with a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in January 2007. Hide Caption 23 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump appears on the set of "The Celebrity Apprentice" with two of his children -- Donald Jr. and Ivanka -- in 2009. Hide Caption 24 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump poses with Miss Universe contestants in 2011. Trump had been executive producer of the Miss Universe, Miss USA and Miss Teen USA pageants since 1996. Hide Caption 25 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise In 2012, Trump announces his endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Hide Caption 26 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump speaks in Sarasota, Florida, after accepting the Statesman of the Year Award at the Sarasota GOP dinner in August 2012. It was shortly before the Republican National Convention in nearby Tampa. Hide Caption 27 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump appears on stage with singer Nick Jonas and television personality Giuliana Rancic during the 2013 Miss USA pageant. Hide Caption 28 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise In June 2015, during a speech from Trump Tower, Trump announced that he was running for President. He said he would give up "The Apprentice" to run. Hide Caption 29 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump -- flanked by U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio, left, and Ted Cruz -- speaks during a CNN debate in Miami on March 10. Trump dominated the GOP primaries and emerged as the presumptive nominee in May. Hide Caption 30 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise The Trump family poses for a photo in New York in April. Hide Caption 31 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump speaks during a campaign event in Evansville, Indiana, on April 28. After Trump won the Indiana primary, his last two competitors dropped out of the GOP race. Hide Caption 32 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump delivers a speech at the Republican National Convention in July, accepting the party's nomination for President. "I have had a truly great life in business," he said. "But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country -- to go to work for you. It's time to deliver a victory for the American people." Hide Caption 33 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump faces Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the first presidential debate, which took place in Hempstead, New York, in September. Hide Caption 34 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump apologizes in a video, posted to his Twitter account in October, for vulgar and sexually aggressive remarks he made a decade ago regarding women. "I said it, I was wrong and I apologize," Trump said, referring to lewd comments he made during a previously unaired taping of "Access Hollywood." Multiple Republican leaders rescinded their endorsements of Trump after the footage was released. Hide Caption 35 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump walks on stage with his family after he was declared the election winner on November 9. "Ours was not a campaign, but rather, an incredible and great movement," he told his supporters in New York. Hide Caption 36 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump is joined by his family as he is sworn in as President on January 20. Hide Caption 37 of 37

His choice of issues might be pertinent to many in the electorate; there may be good grounds for conservatives to have picked an anti-establishment figure. But Trump is imploding -- making unforced errors right out in public view that can't be spun as positives or "sarcasm."

Even Trump's powers of delegation, which supposedly will protect America from his foolishness should he be elected, are in doubt. His campaign supremo, Paul Manafort, is under fire for what the Democrats call "troubling connections" with Russia after a New York Times report suggests money was earmarked for him by Ukrainian plutocrats.

The media may be making more of The Donald's difficulties than Clinton's, but it's his lack of discipline and poor judgment that gives them something to report. Turning a camera on someone and recording what he says to a rally of several thousand isn't "lamestream media" bias. It's journalism.

But, says Trump, the rallies are YUGE. Indeed they are. They always are.

But remember that a few days before the 1984 election, Democtraic nominee Walter Mondale drew a crowd of 100,000 people in New York. Mondale mentioned the polls and his fans booed. The size of the crowd suggested he was a winner! Yet a few days later, Mondale lost New York state to Ronald Reagan by 54-46%, and the country by 59-41%.

JUST WATCHED Trump campaign taking aim at media bias Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH Trump campaign taking aim at media bias 06:37

Crowds are like mirrors: candidates look into them, see a reflection of their hopes, and fall in love with their own image. In an interview with Mike Huckabee , another fan, Trump complained that the TV cameras never pull away from his face and show the size of his rallies -- adding that there is so much "love" on display.

It may well be true that Trump has built a real connection with his followers. But they are deluding each other in thinking that this campaign appeals to casual voters watching at home. And in their delusion, the only explanation for bad poll numbers that makes any sense is that the Democrats and the media are colluding to steal the election.

It doesn't have to be this way. One can embrace a zen-like approach to defeat. Mondale actually knew he was going to lose by the time of his convention, and decided to aim for some moral victories, such as choosing a female running mate. George H.W. Bush, heading into the 1988 Republican convention far behind Michael Dukakis, agreed to put himself into the hands of his managers and run an aggressive campaign that focused on the Democrat's weaknesses. Bush won handily. Discipline can turn things around.

JUST WATCHED Trump aide: New York Times story is garbage Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH Trump aide: New York Times story is garbage 06:33

By contrast, the New York Times reports that Trump is "sullen and erratic," refusing to compromise, and "grumbling about how he was better off following his own instincts." Not only does this match other reports about his stubborn personality but it also matches his outrageous behavior in public.

All of this affirms one of the public's biggest concerns about him -- that Trump doesn't have the temperament to be president. He lacks either the coolness under pressure or the wisdom to recognize that general election campaigns have to be different from primary campaigns.

Truly believing that the real culprit is a conspiracy prevents candidates from making necessary adjustments. Why would they? They've subconsciously accepted defeat and might as well go down in flames. But by doing this, Trump lays a trap for the nation after November 8. His is casting the legitimacy of the eventual result in doubt.

If he does lose, there's a risk that his supporters will lose faith in the democratic process too. That way leads to bitterness and division. That way leads to the potential for violence.