Which Civ outside the Top 15 is most likely to win?

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Afghanistan (16) America (36) Arabia (35) Argentina (45) Armenia (38) Ayyubids (47) Blackfoot (21) Burma (42) Canada (19) Carthage (26) Champa (25) China (50) Ethiopia (27) France (28) Hawaii (22) Inca (33) Indonesia (32) Ireland (48) Israel (46) Japan (49) Mali (30) Maori (17) Mayans (51) Mongolia (23) Morocco (37) Mughals (43) Norway (31) Persia (39) Portugal (34) Sparta (18) Sri Lanka (24) Texas (20) Tibet (40) Timurids (41) USSR (29) Zulus (44)