In our second look at teams heading to the 2019 Rugby World Cup, we check in on Wales. Warren Gatland has got his side running very well but also very much under the radar. Everyone has been talking about New Zealand, Ireland, England, and South Africa when Wales might be the side timing their run the best.

The Welsh under Gatland has a knack of good timing around the World Cup, but they find themselves on even better ground as they prepare for the final build-up to Japan.

2014-2015

Wales famously dropped out of the top eight ranked teams in the world to be put into the third group of seeds. This led to a pool of death with England, Australia, and Wales also facing Fiji and Uruguay. However, by the end of 2014, Wales had recovered to sixth with 81.64 points. That put them a large 14 points behind New Zealand in first place.

The ranking came despite 2014 being a very average year to put it kindly in terms of results; Wales won five and lost six games. The Six Nations was a case of home wins (Italy, France, & Scotland) and away losses (Ireland & England). Following that, Wales lost two games on their tour to South Africa and their November window went badly too, with losses to Australia and New Zealand sandwiching a win over Fiji. There was a morale boosting win over South Africa to finish things off.

One of the big differences with the World Cup cycle between the northern and southern hemisphere sides is when they give debutants. When I looked at the All Blacks, they had a fairly smooth introduction of players from 2012 to 2014 (nine, 12, & seven). For the northern hemisphere sides, the Lions year sees a much larger introduction of players; so for Wales, it was nine, 15 & four, meaning that there was a very settled squad come the end of 2014.

Wales has had the most consistent coaching group of any Tier 1 nation. Warren Gatland was appointed in December 2007 with Rob Howley (attack) and Shaun Edwards (defense) being his assistants for a long time.

Gatland really managed to get the team to peek for 2015. There were only two losses in the run-up to the Rugby World Cup, their opening game against England and their first warm-up game to Ireland. Both were avenged; Ireland the following week and England at the Rugby World Cup. That win over England raised Wales to their highest ever world ranking of second. It was the Welsh’s Achilles heel against southern hemisphere opposition that brought them down. Losses to Australia and narrowly to South Africa saw them drop out at the quarterfinal stage.

2018

Four years on and you would have to say Wales has built themselves into a better position. Currently sitting third in the world rankings on 87.24 points and importantly narrowed the gap to New Zealand, who is still number one, to a much more manageable 6.32 points.

2018 has been arguably Gatland’s best in charge of Wales. It’s the first time that he has won 10 games in a season with Wales. This included a perfect June tour against South Africa and Argentina plus a perfect November window downing South Africa again but more importantly beating Australia for the first time since 2008! The only blemish on the copybook were two losses away during the Six Nations to England and Ireland who are fourth and second in the world respectively.

As we saw in the last Rugby World Cup cycle, players are mainly introduced in the Lions year. That meant, yet again, it’s a settled squad with only six debutants this year after 16 last year.

The coaching group is still the same despite question marks after the 2015 Rugby World Cup about Wales’ ability to beat southern hemisphere teams. There was a call for a change in style that Warren Gatland said they would do and he has done it slowly.

What does that tell us looking forward to 2019 and Japan?

With the total lack of hype around Wales this year, you’d think that they are rank outsiders for the Rugby World Cup and not someone to worry about. Nothing could be further from the truth. Gatland has a record of peaking for the right games, we saw that in 2015 and we’ve seen it on Lions tours too.

I don’t think that Wales has ever entered a Rugby World Cup year in such fine fettle. Sitting third in the world shows that they have the players and systems to compete with anyone. From a morale point of view, the only teams they have not beaten in the last two years are New Zealand and England. However, a lot of the players and coaches have beaten New Zealand recently as members of the Lions.

The run up to the Rugby World Cup is the Six Nations with home games against England and Ireland and away against France, Italy, and Scotland. Then home and away warmup games first against England and then Ireland in August and September. All leading to their opening game against Georgia on the September 23. That’s nine games to get everything sorted out, one more than 2015 and a massive amount compared to the All Blacks with just five.

Looking at their Rugby World Cup pool and draw, the big pool game will be against Australia. The Wallabies have dropped to their worst ever world ranking and were beaten in November. That means Wales should be aiming to top their group and get a quarterfinal against either France or Argentina. I’d back them to win that game, which means a semifinal probably against Ireland is on the cards.

Check back on Friday when we will look at the next team and where they are less than a year out from the Rugby World Cup.