A new opinion poll from Ipsos MORI provides possible signs that Jeremy Corbyn’s opposition to Britain extending air strikes into Syria has helped the Labour cause in London. I stress the word “possible” because it would be rash to read too much into the responses of the 115 Londoners surveyed as part of a national poll of over 1000 people. Even so, the results are interesting.

Ipsos MORI themselves have drawn attention to Londoners being more likely than their fellow Britons to feel that bombing Islamic State targets will make the country less safe. The difference is 54% compared with the next highest rating of 49% for Scotland and an average of 44% for Britain overall.



Londoners were also happier - much happier - than everyone else with Corbyn’s handling of the crisis in Syria, with 44% declaring themselves satisfied compared with 40% dissatisfied. Everywhere else, Corbyn’s ratings by this measure were even more heavily in the negative than David Cameron’s. In London, the prime minister’s Syria performance satisfied only 32% and dissatisfied exactly twice that proportion.

There is also some consolation for Corbyn in Londoners’ responses to a general question about his leadership of Labour. The national poll response shows little long-term change in satisfaction ratings for Cameron as prime minister, with 41% saying they are satisfied and 55% saying the opposite. That looks pretty poor except when put next to Corbyn’s scores: only one in three are satisfied with him as Labour leader while 50% are dissatisfied.



However, the London components of these figures make a sharp contrast with the the rest of them. While Cameron scored 41% satisfied against 57% dissatisfied, Corbyn enjoyed a small positive rating in the capital - 44% to 43%. Elsewhere, his ratings were (so to speak) in the red to the tune of 14%-24%.

Ipsos MORI is at pains to point out that the regional and, in the case of Scotland, national sub divisions of their results are only indicative findings, due to the small individual sample sizes. They also note that London opinion can be distinctive on a number of issues, not least (surprise, surprise) housing, and that Corbyn’s being a London MP might be helpful to him in the capital.



It should also be kept in mind that the questions about Corbyn’s and Cameron’s performances in general and on Syria in particular were put separately and in that order. This means, the pollsters say, that it cannot be assumed that respondents’ respective levels of satisfaction with the two politicians were influenced by their stances on Syria. However, it seems reasonable to speculate that they might have played a part.

The Ipsos MORI poll also raises intriguing questions about the contest to become London’s next mayor. The finding on air strikes could be read as helpful to Labour’s Sadiq Khan, who voted against them, and unhelpful to the Conservatives’ Zac Goldsmith, who voted in favour. There’s a wider issue too. Last month I reported early signs that Goldsmith’s team had calculated that they would gain from tying Khan as closely as possible to Corbyn in the public mind - thinking now central to their newly launched negative campaigning strategy.



The limited polling evidence at the time suggested Goldsmith’s people might be on to something, but this latest data hints that the reverse could be the case. To repeat my opening health warning, there’s not enough information at this stage to draw any firm conclusions either way. But the effects of Corbyn’s leadership on the mayoral race will remain of keen interest to both front runners in the race for City Hall.



Ipsos MORI’s commentary on their poll findings is here and the detailed results are here.

