From whatever analysis I could get on the Nonito Donaire-Naoya Inoue mega fight, it looks like two camps are emerging: one favoring Inoue to win from his knockout power and youthfulness; and those seeing Donaire winning because of his experience and punching power.

One of the most interesting analysis I chanced upon was from Robert Garcia, the older brother of three-weight division champion Mikey Garcia and former trainer of Donaire. In a Youtube post, Garcia said he sees Donaire’s left hook knocking out Inoue.





This has a basis since Garcia also trained Donaire when the Filipino was not in good terms with his father, his original trainer.

I also think Inoue is too raw to be hailed as “The Monster” as he has so far feasted on fighters who mostly would be easily blown away by Donaire.

So far, only Emmanuel Rodriguez was the most formidable opponent Inoue faced, stopping him in the other World Boxing Super Series semi-final bout for bantamweight. However, Rodriguez’s lack of skills was evident when he faced the Japanese.

On the other hand, Donaire after winning his first title at flyweight in July 2007 by stopping a then feared fighter in Vic Darchinyan took on champions who could really fight like Fernando Montiel, Wilfredo Vazquez Jr., Jeffrey Mathebula, among others. And while he has lost to the likes or Gulliermo Rigondeaux, Nicholas Walters and Jessie Magdaleno, those three fighters were all undefeated when he fought them. And I bet you — if Inoue were to face Rigondeaux, Walters or Magdaleno, the Japanese would likely end up in the canvass.

I also bet that Inoue would be blown away by Carl Framptom even if they fought at junior featherweight (122 pounds). Frampton beat Donaire over 12 rounds in a featherweight (126 pounds) title fight in April 2018.

So, Donaire has shown you must work very hard to beat him and there is always the risk of getting hit hard by him.

Now, what happens if Donaire starts finding his range and lands his favorite punches, particularly the left hook, left uppercut and right cross, on Inoue?

Perhaps the casual boxing fan has failed to see that Donaire is still one of the few fighters in the game who can mow down an opponent with any of those three punches.

Also, it’s not only the amount of punishment a boxer can dish out in the ring that wins fights — it’s also the ability and willingness to take punishment. So here is my question — can Inoue just walk through the punches of Donaire?

Perhaps Mike Tyson’s popular quote — “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth” — can provide the answer.

Clearly, Inoue has yet to be tested by a fighter who can unsettle him, although Rodriquez almost did that. I mean, just look at how most of Inoue’s opponents easily crumbled to one or two of his punches, save for two opponents who went the distance with him, particularly David Carmona and compatriot Ryoichi Taguchi.

Donaire, on the other hand, took the heaviest shots that Rigondeaux, Magdaleno, Walters and Frampton could dish out. And while he was stopped by Walters, the Jamaican outweighed him by 25 pounds in the ring, which meant Donaire faced a featherweight who was actually a junior welterweight (154 pounds). It’s like featherweight Mark Magsayo squaring off against Keith Thurman, a big welterweight (147 pounds).

Until Vasily Lomachenko beat Walters in November 2016, the Jamaican was known as a merciless wrecking machine. Walters had a record of 25-0 with 21 KOs and was 28 years old when he faced Donaire.

I must say that there is still no way Donaire would easily mow down Inoue, unless the Japanese forgets about defense and is given a diet of left hooks and right crosses by the Filipino.

Inoue may also prove he has a granite chin and not be bothered by the Filipino’s haymakers. But the ability to take a punch and the willingness to take a punch are two different things.

While many fighters can take a punch or remain standing despite getting hit hard, they end up getting a bit gun shy as the fight endures. And they lose.

On the other hand, a fighter who can take a punch and is willing to take more has a good chance of ending a fight standing up, or depositing his opponent on the canvass.

Donaire can both take a punch and is willing to take hard shots, but that can be his undoing also, as Inoue can unload that one haymaker that can stop Donaire as the fight endures.

This means Donaire should forget the tactic of trading punches that has cost him a few precious fights. And since Donaire has the advantage in height, he can create distance between him and Inoue, denying the Japanese the luxury of landing haymakers with ease.

Obviously, I am siding with the camp that sees Donaire winning but it is still foolish to write of the Japanese this early.

Or maybe, Inoue has fallen into a deadly trap.