Ok, so a ‘likely upset’ is a bit of an oxymoron, but “The 4 Rugby World Cup games least likely to go the way of the favourite” is a hell of a mouthful and an ineffective title. Anyway, we’ve picked out four games that could well go the way of France vs Tonga in 2011. And guess who’s first up?

1. France vs Italy

Pool D, September 19th

Ah, France. It’s always difficult to say what exactly constitutes an upset when Le Bleus are involved, such is their topsy turvy form whenever they take to the pitch. Earlier this year they beat Italy 29-0 on their own patch, but anyone who watched the game will know that wasn’t the whole story. It was a dreary game in which both sides were fairly dire, France merely less so. Italy have sneaked wins in two of the last five encounters between the two sides, and France have been known to start slowly. In 2011 they lost to Tonga and only reached the knockout stages thanks to bonus points. Italy are a better side than Tonga, and in what will be the last hurrah for a few of their legends, they’ll come out firing.

2. Scotland vs Japan/USA

Pool B, September 23rd/27th

A controversial one, this. Scotland will also face an almighty battle against Samoa, but given that the Pacific Islanders sit above them in the World Rankings, I’m not convinced that would really constitute an upset. Were they to lose to Japan or the USA, however, people would sit up and take notice. Both sides are on the up, and I’ve a sneaking suspicion one or both of them will cause an upset at some stage. In the recent Pacific Nations Cup, the US lost to Samoa by the narrow margin of five points, while Japan came within the same margin of beating overall winners Fiji. You’d like to think that the new, improved Scotland under Vern Cotter would have no trouble against these perceived minnows, but at a World Cup, you really never know and one thing is for certain – Japan and the USA have nothing to lose, and will go out and give it a lash.

3. Wales vs Fiji

Pool A, October 1st

Pool A was difficult enough even before Fiji blasted their way through the Pacific Nations Cup with a mixture of power and their usual bravado – all without global superstar Nemani Nadolo. They have certainly caught the eye of the so-called ‘big three’ in the pool, England, Wales and Australia. And while they don’t have a brilliant record against any of the tier one teams, they did come within four points of beating Wales at the Millennium Stadium last November. That fact will be drilled into their players in the build-up to this game, and it will make Wales wary of resting too many players. But here’s the catch: the game comes trickily placed just five days after Wales play England at Twickenham, a match they will go all guns blazing for, and will probably leave with several battered and bruised bodies. Will they risk their frontline players against Fiji, with another crunch game against Australia still to come?

4. South Africa vs Samoa

Pool B, September 26th

South Africa have been the undisputed second best team in the world in the past couple of years, and yet all of a sudden they find themselves on a five game losing streak and unsure of their rugby identity at the most crucial of times. Do they stick to the power/kicking hybrid game that has served them well down the years, or are they the free-running side epitomised by the likes of Willie le Roux, Handré Pollard and Jesse Kriel? If they don’t work it out soon, they could well come unstuck against Samoa, who are in no doubt of how they want to play the game. They will match the Boks for physicality and although they came off second best recently against the All Blacks, they won a lot of admirers for how they got stuck in and mixed it with the best. Imagine the Boks lose against Argentina this weekend, then beat Japan in their opening game, but still underwhelm. Samoa are not a team you want to play when low on confidence, because they will punish you. The Boks should still cruise through Pool B, but their recent blip in form makes them more vulnerable to a banana skin like this than first thought.

So, where do you see the upsets coming in the World Cup group stages? Leave your thoughts below.

By Jamie Hosie

Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images