Some Questions for Those Pushing for US Troops Against ISIS

Keith Nightingale

Since ISIS has become prominent for a variety of issues - all bad, there has been a steady drumbeat for US boots on the ground to resolve the problems. These range from:

Restoring land and people to the legitimate government of Iraq (GOI),

Saving the Yazidi’s from destruction,

Assisting our strong allies the Kurds in reclaiming their land,

Saving hostages held by ISIS,

Occupying Syria with a anti-government faction in ISIS-controlled territory of Syria,

Killing/eliminating a brutish bunch of thugs.

Several members of Congress have been particularly vocal in their call for boots on the ground intervention and they assisted the process by establishing a 10,000 man combat force as the suggested base incursion unit package. As intelligent, long term members of the Beltway Business Corporation, they neglected to identify the devil in the details which they undoubtedly already knew. Those pesky facts regarding Invasion 101 always create issues when the responsible decision-makers get together on the subject. Here are some of the basics on the issue provided as a cheat sheet/service for those clamoring for engagement.

Where is the request/invitation from the Government of Iraq? Unless we no longer care, the Government of Iraq (GOI) has to invite us to fight on its land. Earlier, the GOI would not sign a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) which caused our initial precipitate withdrawal. Would they sign one now to protect the 10,000 plus suggested? If not, do we occupy the land absent a SOFA or an invitation? One of the advantages our absence from the scene created for the previous PM was that he had an unfettered hand in eliminating the Sunni senior officers and cadre from his military and government. Since ISIS is a Sunni-based entity primarily in historic Sunni lands, do we suggest that Sunni affiliated personalities be reinstated into the GOI military, security and civil structure? How will that play in Baghdad? Who are we really supporting if we do eliminate ISIS as an entity?

After we kill all the bad guys and restore the land what happens? Creating a power vacuum from the deceased ISIS necessitates a backfill on the part of the GOI. Again, does GOI re-galvanize its eliminated Sunni cadre or try and impose law and civil services with Shi’a personalities? Unless the GOI can adequately backfill in ISIS-land, our 10,000 have to be a de facto occupation force. Is this part of the plan? How do we manage this in country and what sort of guidance do we provide the ground commander?

What about the rest of the force-who are they and where are they? 10,000 combat personnel will require a support package considerably larger than that. Mobility and aerial support, crucial to success, will be key force multipliers. Fixed and rotary wing aircraft require significant stockpiles of ammo, fuel and parts and a dramatically significant support structure. If the 10,000 are envisioned as being self-supporting, that means less than 2,500 could be direct action personnel. The size of the territory to be contested would consume that number easily and greatly limit the flexibility and response capabilities of our commander on the ground. Concurrently, if the order is for the 10,000 to go “lean and mean/austere,” that practically means they have about five days of operational capability and then begin starving in the sand absent decent backup.

What about Syria? There are some difficult conundrums here before we sally forth into ISIS-Land. The primary Syrian rebel force, ostensibly our allies in this endeavor, are Sunni (friends of ISIS). Among this force is considerable AQ structure. How do we separate the rebels/AQ from the Syrian equation? This is particularly vexing in a post-occupation scenario where the land we (US) occupy now has to be backfilled by rebels. When Bad Guy Mullah X, recently returned from Afghanistan, is announced as the head of Province A, what do we do?

How do we manage our regional allies against ISIS? Our supposed strongest partner in the region, Saudi Arabia, is the bastion of the Sunni faith and mortally opposed to the Sh’ia. Will our Sunni allies now rally around the GOI and Sh’ia interests to suppress ISIS? Note the amount of money and fighters flowing to ISIS in Syria and ISIS-controlled land in Iraq. Will these countries provide us access and support for our 10,000 man incursion bent on destroying their expatriate citizens? Several of our allies have their own agenda’s viz a viz ISIS and other allies. The Turks do not want the Kurds to gain support or power yet they are the strongest combat force against ISIS. How do we manage two allies in conflict with each other? Syria has a substantial Sh’ia population and the present government is strongly backed by both the PRC and Russia. Have we just built a larger tar baby by attempting to overthrow/occupy Syria? Iran is the key Sh’ia supporter for the present GOI. If we support the restoration of lands to the GOI, are we not supporting Iran’s regional objectives while trying to pressure them to acede to our nuclear limitation objective?

How long do we stay? This has always been a crucial and largely unanswered question before execute orders are signed. We seem to run out of patience, interest and funds after a couple of months of news cycles. Invading and occupying a vast area in the Middle East (half of Syria and a third of Iraq) will require a lot of people and things to maintain stability-even with our Uniforms there. Training competent backfill personalities from Iraq and Syria will take considerable time and resource commitment. Will we have the patience? If we make an arbitrary deadline and just do it-withdraw-we create the same vacuums that nurtured ISIS in the first place. If so, what are we doing there in the first place?

Can we just send in SOF to rescue hostages and decapitate the leadership? Sounds good but reality is lot more chilling than a cold bath. Crucial to any SOF op is high quality intelligence. We proved in Iraq and Yemen that SOF doesn’t always get what it needs. Intel takes time, resources and associations. The same issues that apply to conventional incursion apply to SOF-See all Above.