The state poll meta-analysis has jumped by 10 electoral votes, and by 0.7% in Popular Vote Meta-Margin. Movements of >5 EV and >0.5% usually happen only when a real shift is occurring. Already things are looking very unlike the GOP-convention anti-bounce. Note that the last time the Meta-analysis moved this fast on the first day was the post-Ryan-VP bounce, which peaked at about 40 EV and 3-4%.

Our calculations grind slow, but they grind exceedingly fine. They are based on close to 100 recent state polls from Pollster.com, are very precise, and take days to reach a new stable point.

My November prediction (and warning) are exactly the same. President Obama’s November re-elect probability is…87%, as dictated by this year’s polls and the amount of movement in previous re-election races. The predicted two-candidate outcome is popular vote Obama 51.5 +/- 1.1%, Romney 48.5 +/- 1.1% (1 sigma error bar), and Obama 312 EV, Romney 226 EV.*

Recall that I gave the probability on August 8th as 87%; on August 15th, 89%; and on August 23rd, 88%. Other predictions vary more because they use econometric assumptions that add unnecessary noise.

In my mind, the real suspense is in control of Congress. This, not the Presidential race, is where the uncertainty for 2013 lies. If you want to influence what happens, give. Democrats, I have listed key races at this ActBlue site. Republicans, give at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

* For Obama electoral outcome, the 1-sigma CI is 281-353 EV. The 2-sigma CI is 248-360 EV. For a long-tailed distribution that includes “black swan” possibilities, these are 61% and 86% confidence intervals.