When Renault returned to Formula 1 as a full constructor in 2016 Renault Sport Racing president Jerome Stoll said they would be in contention for podium finishes within three or four years.

Significant gains have been made, however. Renault has risen from ninth to fourth in the championship in the space of three seasons. Last year they were beaten only by F1’s mega-spenders Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull.

And having poached multiple race winner Daniel Ricciardo from Red Bull, the team will be under even greater pressure to hit that podium target. Can they do it?

Although they ended last year ‘best of the rest’, this was far from a comfortable win over the rest of the midfield. Haas were too close for comfort – it spoke volumes that it was Renault who protested Romain Grosjean’s sixth place in Italy. By end of the season Renault also hadn’t established a clear performance margin over the likes of Force India, whose financial traumas blunted their challenge, and Sauber.

But it’s easy to forget Renault made its F1 return from a very low baseline at the end of 2015, when it took over a Lotus outfit which was on the brink of collapse. Since then it has expanded its workforce rapidly and invested in its Enstone factory.

The results have been plain to see, but a significant question mark remains over whether the recent disruption at the highest level of the Renault operation will jeopardise that progress. CEO Carlos Ghosn, who sanctioned Renault’s return to F1, was arrested in Japan two months ago on charges of financial misconduct and reported to be stepping down from his role imminently. Meanwhile the planned departure of Stoll, to be replaced by Thierry Koskas, was derailed last week when the latter left the company.

The team consolidated its expansion programme during 2018. It is at pains not to grow too large too soon, especially with the possibility of a budget cap in just two years’ time. That may further constrain on how much progress they can make in the meantime.

When it comes to that ultimate measure of performance – lap time – its next step will be the hardest. Throughout the V6 hybrid turbo era the ‘big three’ teams have pulled away from their rivals. Renault’s rate of progress slowed and appeared to stall last season:

The team will be hoping its decision to prioritise the 2019 car will pay off. But even if they make substantial gains they could still end up well behind the six fastest cars, with only a low chance of hitting that podium target.

Renault’s greatest weakness remains its power unit. They haven’t been able to match the performance of Mercedes and Ferrari, particularly in qualifying, where its rivals ‘Q3 modes’ meant Renault were usually consigned to the lower reaches of the top 10 at best during 2018.

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Red Bull did not disguise its frustration at Renault’s slow progress and has now thrown its lot in with Honda. The ending of that fractious relationship may bring some relief, but it also means Renault has now lost the ultimate benchmark of performance for its power unit. Red Bull’s TAG Heuer-branded units are the only Renault-powered hardware to have won anything in F1 since 2014.

All of this was running through Ricciardo’s mind in the middle of last year when he made his stunning decision to defect from Red Bull to Renault.

“I think at the time for sure knowing ‘yes I’m doing this, no I’m not staying’, those decisions at the time were scarier now than the reality of it,” he said at the end of the year. “I think the reality for me is exciting. There’s certainly some… there’s a little bit of nerves with that but it’s more excitement.”

What are his prospects for his first year in yellow? Having left a race-winning outfit, he will be up against a driver many consider the most deserving of a shot at a top team: Nico Hulkenberg.

Both are mature F1 talents who have staked their futures on Renault joining the front-runners sooner rather than later. The contest between the pair should be riveting. While Hulkenberg has the benefit of two years’ experience at Renault, Ricciardo at least is familiar with the power unit.

There’s no doubt Ricciardo’s reputation has taken a knock from the three seasons he spent alongside the rapid and rapidly-improving Max Verstappen. Ricciardo increasingly struggled to match his team mate’s one-lap pace during their time together.

But if Renault is going to be the team where he can win more races and ultimately compete for the world championship, he will have to assert his authority over another potentially tough rival. The rest is up to Renault, which now has to prove it has something to offer Ricciardo besides a generous pay cheque and the opportunity to not be Verstappen’s team mate.

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Quotes: Dieter Rencken

2019 F1 season