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After two years as Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer remains something of an enigma to Canadians. He is neither greatly disliked nor greatly liked: as many (31 per cent) had a positive view of him as negative in a recent Abacus Data poll.

That his party now leads the governing Liberals by half a dozen points, then, is less because of any great enthusiasm for Scheer than the prime minister’s present bad odour. That may fade, as the SNC Lavalin affair recedes into memory and the economy continues to strengthen, notwithstanding the supposed “job-killing carbon tax.”

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Moreover, Scheer himself is vulnerable to Liberal attacks, in part because he is so little known, in part because of his own rhetoric on certain issues. The voters who have been deserting the Liberals have not only gone to the NDP and the Greens; as many or more, Abacus’s polling shows, have gone to the Conservatives.

But not enough of them have. If Scheer wants to close the deal, he must not only put to rest the doubts of those Liberal-Conservative switchers, but also give NDP and Green voters sufficient peace of mind to stay with their preferred parties in the face of the inevitable appeals to unite under the Liberal flag to “keep the Tories out.”