How experts interpret the data

Tom Horning of Horning Geosciences in Seaside offers a recommendation of potential building sites on high ground at 10th Street or 13th Street on Marion Avenue. He concludes that Gearhart must prepare for an “L-1” scenario — a large tsunami event.

“Fifty-foot waves are in keeping with the large tsunami scenario,” he writes. “Tsunami for the L-1 scenario is modeled to flood to 40 to 42 feet, or about the roof of the existing firehouse.”

Stewart Schultz, a full botany professor at the University of Zadar in Bosnia, offers a different conclusion: “The probability that the next tsunami from a major event floods the Pacific Way Station is close to zero (2%), not large.”

The highest likelihood tsunami height at Pacific Way from a mega-event is about 30 feet, not 50 feet, Schultz writes.

He adds that the height of a large tsunami, at 40 feet, is two feet below the roof of the existing station.