<p>We surveyed a probability sample of 2,052 registered voters in the United States, with an oversample of Black and Latinx voters. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.</p><p>We examined a broad range of attributes that are commonly used to evaluate presidential candidates, from the ability to stand up to adversaries to intelligence. All respondents, regardless of political party, rated the two top-polling Democratic men (Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders) and the two top-polling Democratic women (Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris). If respondents indicated they would not vote for one of these four candidates in the Democratic primary, they also rated the attributes of their preferred candidate from a list of six other top-polling candidates at the ...</p>

<p>We surveyed a probability sample of 2,052 registered voters in the United States, with an oversample of Black and Latinx voters. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.</p><p>We examined a broad range of attributes that are commonly used to evaluate presidential candidates, from the ability to stand up to adversaries to intelligence. All respondents, regardless of political party, rated the two top-polling Democratic men (Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders) and the two top-polling Democratic women (Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris). If respondents indicated they would not vote for one of these four candidates in the Democratic primary, they also rated the attributes of their preferred candidate from a list of six other top-polling candidates at the time (Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, and Beto O’Rourke). If a respondent indicated that he or she would vote for President Trump in the 2020 general election, he or she also rated him on the same attributes. Each respondent ended up rating between four and six candidates.</p><p>We conducted an analysis to examine if and how voters’ assessments of the candidates differ depending on the gender of the candidate. We looked at Democratic and Independent voters who say they intend to vote in the Democratic primary and calculated the gap in how they rate their top-rated man and top-rated woman on each attribute. We then assessed which gaps best predict voters’ intentions to vote for a woman or a man in the primary. Based on our analysis, these factors stand out as the strongest predictors: </p><ul><li>How presidential voters think the candidates are</li><li>How electable voters think the candidates are</li><li>How strong a leader voters think the candidates are</li><li>The extent to which voters think the candidates represent them and their interests</li></ul><p></p><p>Given that the presidency is a position historically held by men and the significant public attention paid to the topic of electability among the Democratic candidates, we focused our research efforts on how presidential and how electable voters rated the candidates and what attributes predict these ratings. When we discuss the factors that may shape voters’ perceptions of “presidential” and “electable,” we draw on findings from this survey and social science research.</p><p>Based on our analysis, if we close the gaps between how “presidential” and “electable” voters perceive the men and women vying for the Democratic nomination to be, the outcome changes substantially: Democratic and Independent voters go from being significantly more likely to vote for the men to about as likely to vote for the women and men front-runners in the race. This hypothetical model points to the importance of these two factors in voters’ decision-making and the benefits of setting these notions aside when we evaluate the 2020 presidential candidates.</p>