Balter vs. Katko: What to expect in race for Congress

Dana Balter shook up the Democratic Party establishment by winning the primary election against Juanita Perez Williams in the 24th Congressional District. But now the political novice has a bigger obstacle: Can she pull off an upset in November against Rep. John Katko, a two-term Republican?

Balter, 42, a doctoral candidate who teaches at Syracuse University, enters the campaign as a long-shot candidate who first must prove that she can unite her own party after a divisive primary campaign.

If Balter can pull it off, the Syracuse-area congressional race will be one of the most competitive in the nation this year as Democrats seek to take back control of the House. Here's a look at what to expect.

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Mark Weiner | mweiner@syracuse.com

Can Democrats unite?

In the night of the June 26 primary, Perez Williams implored her supporters to quickly unite behind Balter. She said the stakes in November are simply too high for Democrats to waste time in an intra-party battle.

Mark English, chairman of the Onondaga County Democratic Committee, says he has no doubt the party can heal its primary wounds. He compares the primary, in which supporters of both camps had bitter disputes on social media, to a family squabble.

Balter starts off with a solid base of support: She won the designation from the local Democratic committees in the four-county district. She also had strong grassroots support from groups that formed in 2016 to resist President Donald Trump's agenda.

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Mark Weiner | mweiner@syracuse.com

The role of the national parties

After Balter's primary victory, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington said it was too soon to decide what kind of support the national party will offer.

The DCCC spent almost $20,000 to support Perez Williams and enrolled her in the party's "Red to Blue" program for priority races in Republican-held districts.

"As Democrats we must be united around the fact that Rep. John Katko has failed the people of Central New York," DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said after Balter's win, adding "we will be evaluating this race in the coming weeks."

Republicans in Washington have already identified Katko as one of their priorities to protect in November. Vice President Mike Pence provided evidence of that commitment when he headlined a fundraiser in Syracuse for Katko, only weeks before the Democratic primary.

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Why the 24th District is important

Democrats need to flip control of 23 Republican-held seats to gain a majority in the 435-member House of Representatives. But there are not a lot of competitive districts across the country. New York is one exception, where Democrats say five of the nine Republican-held seats could be competitive in November.

Last year, Politico listed Katko's seat as one of the nation's top 10 competitive races to watch in 2018. But with Democrats fighting with themselves, most political analysts in Washington listed the 24th District seat as one that is "likely Republican" in the November election.

Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, said in an interview that he has no immediate plans to change his rating on the race after the primary election. But Gonzales said he will keep a close watch on developments because the district is considered a swing seat, making Katko vulnerable.

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Rod Aydelotte | AP

Campaign issues

The race for the 24th District will likely revolve around key federal issues debated by Congress over the past two years: tax reform, the future of the Affordable Care Act, immigration reform and gun laws.

Balter and her supporters argue that Central New York needs a Democrat in Congress to push back against President Trump's agenda.

Katko plans to run on his record, touting his moderate votes in which he has split with his party on key issues such as the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and a farm bill that cut food stamps. He also authored 14 bills that passed the House since last year, most of them related to a Homeland Security subcommittee he chairs.

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Lauren Long | llong@syracuse.com

A history of competitive elections

Katko won both of his elections by more than 20 percentage points, but a look at the 24th District's voter enrollment and history suggests it's still one of the nation's most competitive swing districts.

When Katko was elected in 2014, it was the fourth consecutive time the district had swung between parties, from Democrat to Republican to Democrat to Republican. That was the most change of any of the nation's 435 House seats.

Katko's win in 2016 marked the first time anybody had been reelected to the Syracuse-based congressional seat since 2006, when former Rep. Jim Walsh won his 10th and final term.

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Katrina Tulloch | ktulloch@syracuse.com

Why Central New York is a battleground

The district's voter enrollment is almost evenly split among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters who are not enrolled in a political party.

As of April 1, the district had 143,319 active Democratic voters, 138,353 active Republican voters, and 103,922 active independent voters, according to the state Board of Elections.

The district covers all of Onondaga, Cayuga and Wayne counties, and the western half of Oswego County, including the cities of Fulton and Oswego.

The voters have shown a willingness in recent years to split their tickets. In the 2016 election, Katko was one of only 23 House Republicans nationwide to win in a district carried by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

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Last chance to register to vote

This year's election will be Tuesday, Nov. 6. If you are not an active registered voter in New York, you have until Oct. 12, 2018 to register at your local board of elections.

If you want to change your party enrollment, it's too late for this year. Voters who change their enrollment by Oct. 12, 2018 will be able to vote in primary election for their new party beginning in 2019.

If you have been honorably discharged from the military, became a naturalized citizen or are a registered voter who has moved within your county after October 12, 2018, the deadline to register is Oct. 27, 2018.