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Trolololo



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Sr. MemberActivity: 259Merit: 268 2014-10-14 Chart v1.1 Logarithmic (non-linear) regression to date October 22, 2014, 05:49:13 PM

Last edit: May 28, 2015, 06:41:02 PM by Trolololo Merited by LoyceV (1) #4



Donations: 19AYtA4xFM7izR7BAXKr9TLJkrAJsvcfFm





If we "flatten" the red logarithmic line, we get the spread between the price and the estimated value:



Donations: 1BgnScfDU5QvKUGCqKKsDm62YxKzh5sjCn





This is how the 2011 and 2013 (1) bubbles look like in linear price axis:



Donations: 1EbbkBkTDZ667bUxHNHtxhAysFEAWVgWB4



And this is how the 2011 and 2013 (1&2) bubbles look like in linear price axis:



Donations: 196xJM7c4jjhHkUp7CnrKG2joXPe57uNRF





Calculate today's trendline price



Projected:

1.000 24-04-2015

10.000 22-11-2017

100.000 16-07-2021

1.000.000 06-09-2026 Chart with data until 2014-10-14:Donations: 19AYtA4xFM7izR7BAXKr9TLJkrAJsvcfFmIf we "flatten" the red logarithmic line, we get the spread between the price and the estimated value:Donations: 1BgnScfDU5QvKUGCqKKsDm62YxKzh5sjCnThis is how the 2011 and 2013 (1) bubbles look like in linear price axis:Donations: 1EbbkBkTDZ667bUxHNHtxhAysFEAWVgWB4And this is how the 2011 and 2013 (1&2) bubbles look like in linear price axis:Donations: 196xJM7c4jjhHkUp7CnrKG2joXPe57uNRFCalculate today's trendline price HERE Projected:1.000 24-04-201510.000 22-11-2017100.000 16-07-20211.000.000 06-09-2026

SmoothCurves



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Sr. MemberActivity: 379Merit: 250 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value October 22, 2014, 09:02:10 PM #7 Very interesting chart. I could definitely see BTC reaching $1k around April 2015 and then hovering around there until Q4 2015. The block reward halving will be a focus of discussion and I can imagine that topic causing a x10 increase to around $10k in late 2015. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

keystroke



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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe







Hero MemberActivity: 897Merit: 1007advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value October 22, 2014, 11:27:19 PM #12



But let's not forget the massive volatility we will have getting there! Probably about right.But let's not forget the massive volatility we will have getting there! "The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."

chriswilmer



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LegendaryActivity: 1008Merit: 1000 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value October 23, 2014, 12:14:23 AM #13 What price do you get in 2075? In my opinion the "equilibrium" price of Bitcoin is one of the easier numbers to make rational arguments about (thermodynamics is always on sounder footing than kinetics, etc.).

For example, if you get $1 trillion per BTC in 2075, I would say the model is problematic, however well fitted. If you get something in the $1-10 million range, then you're probably in the ballpark. (these models assume a certain optimism about adoption already)