The claim

The Greens say there is a "housing crisis" in New South Wales.

While spruiking policies to promote affordable housing ahead of this month's state election, NSW Greens MP David Shoebridge tweeted: "In NSW homelessness has jumped by more than 30 per cent in five years".

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Is that number correct?

RMIT ABC Fact Check takes a look.

The verdict

Mr Shoebridge's claim is close to the mark.

According to the most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the number of homeless people in New South Wales increased by 37 per cent between 2011 and 2016.

However, looking at the raw number of homeless people fails to account for population change over time.

Fact Check considers the rate of homelessness as a proportion of the state's population to be a more appropriate measure.

On this basis, homelessness in New South Wales increased by 27 per cent over the same five-year period.

What it means to be 'homeless'

Homelessness as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is not necessarily limited to living without a roof over your head.

Rather, it is the lack of a "home", and therefore living without the sense of security, stability, privacy, safety and autonomy over one's living space that a home can provide.

The bureau's formal definition says:

"When a person does not have suitable accommodation alternatives, they are considered homeless if their current living arrangement is in a dwelling that is inadequate, has no tenure, or if their initial tenure is short and not extendable, or if their current living arrangement does not allow them to have control of, and access to space for social relations."

The state of homelessness in NSW

On census night in 2016, there were 37,715 people classified as being homeless in New South Wales — up from 27,479 people in the 2011 census.

On the raw numbers, this was an increase of 37 per cent.

The chair of urban housing and homelessness at RMIT University, Professor Guy Johnson, told Fact Check the numerical rise was not surprising.

"If the population increases considerably you would expect the numbers to go up," he said.

NSW Greens MP David Shoebridge tweeted that "homelessness has jumped by more than 30 per cent in five years". ( AAP: Dean Lewins )

Using the rate of homeless people as a proportion of the population was "a much more accurate measure over time" than using raw numbers, Professor Johnson said.

"The rate … takes into account population growth, so any growth or otherwise doesn't distort the figures," he said.

The ABS said the 2016 number represented 50.4 homeless persons for every 10,000 people in NSW, up from 39.7 five years earlier.

This represents a 27 per cent increase in the rate of homeless individuals over that period.



Homelessness in New South Wales 2011 2016 Change Rate per 10,000 people 39.7 50.4 +27.0% Number of total homeless persons 27,479 37,715 +37.3%

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing: Estimating Homelessness, 2016

What about the rest of Australia?

Fact Check produced an interactive data series during last year's Homelessness Week which mapped the geographical and cultural realities of homelessness across Australia.

The interactive noted that some 116,400 Australians were without a home, making it "the highest number since the census began estimating the prevalence of homelessness".

It said the increase could not be pinned on population growth alone, with the rate of homelessness nationally rising from 47.6 per 10,000 people in 2011 to 49.8 in 2016.

However, some state and territories recorded a drop in the rate of homelessness: there was an 11 per cent drop in Western Australia, and a 17 per cent drop in each of the Northern Territory and the ACT.

Most of the other states recorded only small rises.

NSW had by far the fastest growing rate of homelessness, and the highest rate of homeless people per 10,000 outside the Northern Territory.



Homeless rate (per 10,000 persons) 2011 2016 Change New South Wales 39.7 50.4 +27.0% Queensland 43.9 46.1 +5.0% Tasmania 31.0 31.8 +2.6% South Australia 36.4 37.1 +1.9% Victoria 41.7 41.9 +0.5% Western Australia 41.0 36.4 -11.2% Northern Territory 723.3 599.4 -17.1% ACT 48.7 40.2 -17.4%

Source: ABS Census data, 2011-2016

Principal researcher: Natasha Grivas

factcheck@rmit.edu.au



Sources