The writer is former executive editor of The News and a senior journalist with Geo TV.

We can all have an endless debate on how to fix Karachi, the country’s financial and – in more ways than one – now the political nerve centre. There is no dearth of genuine or contrived intelligence on the subject. Everyone has an opinion. Everyone has a solution. Yet all this wisdom will come to nothing if the critical factors shaping Karachi’s politics are not taken into account. Here are a few givens that any substantive and long-term plan for Karachi must have in its scope.

The first given is that for all its rhetoric about and commitment to fighting Karachi’s organised crime and the mafias that benefit from it, the federal government is unlikely to proceed with a plan of action that adds to its rivals’ political weight. If an implosion within the MQM is to design the situation to the PTI’s advantage then this is not something the ruling party would classify a happy way forward. In fact it would either slow down the pace and trajectory of events leading in that direction or not let them happen at all. This is what the fuss over the MQM’s resignations has been all about.

There can be moral outrage over this approach by the PML-N. In fact it looks downright opportunistic and hypocritical. But politics is a ruthless game. Here the art of survival trumps any other consideration. The PML-N would continue to push for Karachi’s crime cleansing efforts but would not carry the ball of a political re-engineering that allows the PTI’s influence to grow there.

Yes, it would have been different if the Jamaat-e-Islami were in a position to come forward and share the spoils of the MQM’s internal upheavals. The Jamaat has worked with the PML-N in the past. It does not throw up a direct national level challenge to the party, and, therefore, could have been a more acceptable beneficiary.

But the JI’s politics itself is in doldrums. It has a love-hate

relationship and an alliance with the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It doesn’t seem to know what to do with its partner – keep it or abandon it. For this reason it is never too sure of what to do with political opportunities that emerge on the national horizon from time to time such as one that exists in Karachi. Its leadership spends more time moralising on important turns in national political events than on expanding its own influence and positioning itself for better advantages. It is happy to play the balancer rather than holding the balance of politics.

The other given in the Karachi situation is that the PPP will not let political initiative totally slip from its hands. Under duress, pressure and after much arm-twisting, the party’s boss, Asif Ali Zardari, has backed off from standing with Altaf Hussain. He has also been forced to remove administrative and political hurdles from the path of the ongoing activities by the Rangers to shatter and quash criminal gangs.

However, he will not cut himself at the knees by allowing the MQM to collapse so completely that his own future and that of his close associates in Sindh get buried under the falling debris. If the provincial political system, whose core resides in Karachi, faces a meltdown then the effects would reach far and wide in the interior of the province. PPP representatives would do their utmost to protect their political heartland. They form a strong barrier against plans to flatten the MQM.

The third given is the MQM itself. Let’s admit it: the party has resilience. It has withstood, because of a combination of wily moves, fortuitous circumstances and poor actions on the part of state agencies, massive pressure. Altaf Hussain has not collapsed. Alternative leadership has not emerged. The core group within the party continues to stick together. Yes, internally and behind the scenes, the party is badly-placed. From Altaf Hussain’s health to investigations against him, from the MQM’s media rollback to the state’s near-total control of all its weak points, everything has become murkier and bleaker for the party. Yet, publically, the MQM under Altaf Hussain has not become a goner. It is hanging in there.

Additionally, through a cleverly-designed narrative the party has started to play the victim. In world capitals, where it has held many demonstrations, placards now openly display words such as ‘genocide’, ‘racial discrimination’ and ‘minority persecution’. Back home the party’s social media has actively pushed the tale of pity and horror. The ethnic card is being played repeatedly to resonate with a constituency that is deprived of basic facilities and is receptive to statements of being wronged by the state.

This context makes the MQM under Altaf Hussain a fairly strong political contender in Karachi’s political arena. While resigning from its legislature seats looks like a suicidal tactic, there is no way of knowing how this move will play with the traditional MQM supporter. Will this supporter lose touch with the party after it has moved out of the assemblies or will he regroup and rally around the slogans of being marginalised and conspired against? Nobody knows for sure. And that advances the MQM’s political relevance.

Stated in another way, if Altaf Hussain and his local command structure are able to effectively campaign from the platform of an underdog who is being pushed and kicked around, it might come back to the assemblies in an emphatic, stronger way – not in the numerical sense, as it is sure to lose many seats, but in the political and constitutional sense after it is endorsed by the voters despite being treated by the state as a group of traitors and criminals.

The fourth given is that the army, the intelligence agencies and other state agencies are in no position to go beyond the point that they have already touched in pursuit of their goals in Karachi. That the city has gotten its way of life back is obvious and a giant leap in the right direction, but this change sits on thin ice. The city can go into a tailspin if the state were to push its politics harder to produce results of its liking. The gloves will come off. The daggers will come out. It will be a violent and ugly fight.

So here is the acute dilemma: on the one hand, the city looks perfectly poised to break free from its horrid recent past through a final and brave push; yet on the other hand, all its political buttons are in control of hands that are not ready to press them lest they be hit by the blowback.

These givens of the Karachi situation are unlikely to undergo change. Our mini-Pakistan is in that classic phase where the old order isn’t dying fast enough and the new one is arriving too slowly.

Under the circumstances it is tempting to think that Karachi’s melting pot can be artificially taken to the boiling point but the temptation needs to be resisted. A solution that is imposed by the state in a hurry would make needless heroes of villains. Besides, the complexity of provincial politics is such that there will be very few takers for a fast-tracked change.

The MQM or any other party cannot be allowed to hold the people hostage. There is no place for a regime built on corruption that survives through violence, killing and extortion. However, to right these wrongs requires a political push, which Karachi’s many givens don’t seem to offer at the moment.

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: @TalatHussain12

