Week 7 is a big bye week for fantasy owners and many are scrambling this week to find replacement players. If you have been working the waiver wire all year, you may already be in a good position to succeed. If not, we need to look at some weekly trends to determine who you should play this week.

This article is all about watching how a backfield is being used for every team. Snap counts are very useful, but I want to know what a player is doing when he has the ball in his hands. Anytime a running back gets a touch, what is being done with that touch?

Watching a trend with touches for running backs will not only let us know their usage for any given week or period, but how effective they are with the ball. High volume plus high effectiveness is always the best outcome. High volume with low effectiveness can be great and low volume with high effectiveness can be streaky at times. Let’s dive into our Week 7 preview.

Love the strategy of season-long fantasy sports? Live for the short term gratification of DFS? Try Weekly Fantasy Sports on OwnersBox - a new weekly DFS platform. Sign up today for a FREE $50 Deposit Match

RB Touches and Efficiency Breakdown

Week 6 Report

Can we start trusting Alex Collins again?

I’ll be the first to say it’s been frustrating not only being an Alex Collins owner this season, but a Collins truther. This was a guy I had high in the rankings heading into the season, projecting a solid RB2 return, but it hasn’t worked out that way. I thought the goal line fumble two weeks ago was going to be the nail in the coffin for Collins, but behold! Collins was able to convert two touchdowns in the red zone last week.

The fact is, Javorius Allen is not that good and not nearly good enough to make Collins irrelevant. Allen is highly touchdown dependent and needs to have a big games catching passes to help return value in PPR leagues. Collins is still the lead back in Baltimore, evidenced by having 50% of the running back touches for the Ravens through six weeks. If the volume for Collins was the same as Carlos Hyde, Collins would be near RB1 status, he just hasn’t gotten that type of volume. Don’t give up on Collins, last weeks two touchdown performance could be a kick start for him.

Jordan Howard vs Tarik Cohen

Tarik Cohen truthers rejoice! Off-season promises by Matt Nagy that Cohen was going to be a vital part of this offense may finally be coming true. Cohen has been hot the past two games, getting 63% of the carries in Week 4 and 41% of the carries in Week 6. Cohen has told Jordan Howard to step back because he has this.

Cohen is also sporting a healthy 8.1 yards per touch this season on 32 touches. That number will likely come down as he handles more volume, but at this point, his impressive play the last two games warrant more opportunities. Ride the hot hand while it’s hot. If you are a Howard owner, hopefully, he was only a RB2 or RB3 for you. Cohen will severally limit Howard’s weekly upside since he is making an impact on the ground and in the year.

Meet Kerryon Johnson, RB1 in Week 7

Maybe a little too much too soon, but reports are that Theo Riddick may not be healthy for Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. If Riddick is out for some reason, then Kerryon Johnson is going to get all the pass work out of the backfield. If that happens and he is just as efficient as he has been, then we could see a big week in the making.

The Dolphins have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Johnson has averaged 12.6 touches per game while Riddick has averaged 6.2 touches per game. If Johnson can get to 20 touches this Sunday against the Dolphins while keeping his 5.6 yards per touch, he’ll have over 100 yards of total offense. I don’t think Matt Patricia can even keep Johnson owners down this week.

Is Marlon Mack really back?

The turnstile at running back could finally be over if Marlon Mack is healthy and can stick in the lineup. Mack saw 13 touches in Week 6 and averaged 7.2 yards per touch. If the Colts can get Mack and Nyheim Hines, who also averaged 7.0 yards per touch, working together, this could be a backfield that helps to take pressure off Andrew Luck.

The Colts still need to get Hines the ball in the passing game. Hines has averaged 4.5 yards per touch this season on 67 touches, the most for any running back in Indianapolis this season. Hines disappeared last week though with only five touches. Hines could end up being dependent on game script, but if Mack can handle a majority of the running calls, Hines could be much more effective in the slot and in the backfield.

Patrick Mahomes does know how to throw to Kareem Hunt

Heading into Week 6, Kareem Hunt only had five receptions in the first five weeks of the season. Last week against the Patriots, he had five receptions for the night. The buy low window is officially closed and hopefully, Mahomes will find Hunt more often now.

Hunt had been playing well this season, but the dual-threat running back we came to know last season was gone. If he can start making an impact in the passing game, Hunt could be a top five running back by the end of the season. The Chiefs offense is explosive enough for Hunt to start pulling some more targets and not affect others.

Who is Raheem Mostert and should you invest?

Since waivers have already processed this week, more than likely someone has already acquired Mostert. If they haven’t though, should you? Kyle Shanahan mentioned earlier in the week that Alfred Morris is still a part of the game plan. The question is whether we should believe him or not.

As of right now, Matt Breida is still the lead back and is averaging seven yards per touch on 74 touches. No one is taking that work away unless Breida can’t get healthy. We must turn our attention the backup at this point and who should we start if Breida can’t go any given week. Mostert only has 20 touches this season but has averaged almost a yard more per touch than Morris. Seeing as Shanahan completely forgot about Morris last game, we should forget about him now as well.

More Risers and Fallers