A trio of new polls show that Democrats are cutting into the GOP's longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections, another encouraging sign for the minority party's hopes of winning the House in November.

According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday, roughly two-thirds of voters, 66 percent, said they were “very motivated” to vote in this year’s elections — up significantly from 55 percent in May.


Three-fourths of GOP voters, 75 percent, said they are “very motivated” to vote, as did 72 percent of Democrats; the difference between the two is within the poll’s margin of error. Fewer independents, 53 percent, said they were very motivated to vote.

In past midterms, other surveys have showed Republican voters were far more motivated than Democrats were to show up at the polls.

“With public interest in the midterms increasing as autumn approaches, our polling shows Democrats and Republicans are about evenly matched in voter enthusiasm,” said Tyler Sinclair, managing director of Morning Consult.

If high levels of voter excitement continue to November, it could lead to greater turnout at the ballot box. Only 41.9 percent of eligible voters turned out in the 2014 midterms, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey — less than 45.5 percent in 2010 and 47.8 percent in 2006.

A CNN poll, conducted by SSRS and released Wednesday, also shows historically high levels of enthusiasm for this year’s midterms. More than two-thirds of voters, 68 percent, said they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual” — far greater than even in the last presidential race. In early September 2016, only 42 percent of voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual.


The CNN poll shows both parties tied in enthusiasm: 70 percent of Democratic voters and 68 percent of Republican voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual.

A third poll, from Quinnipiac University, gives Democrats an edge in enthusiasm: 65 percent of voters said they were "extremely motivated" to vote in 2018 — including 73 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of independents.

Democrats maintain a slight edge in the generic ballot on the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, 42 percent to 38 percent, with 1-in-5 voters undecided. That is down marginally from a 6-point lead last week, and consistent with the party’s long-term advantage, which has fluctuated 3 points to 8 points all summer long. (The CNN and Quinnipiac polls show larger leads for Democrats: 11 points and 9 points, respectively.)


In the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, former President Barack Obama is the most coveted endorser for 2018 candidates: 42 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate if that candidate received Obama’s endorsement, though 34 percent said it would make them less likely.

The numbers are inverted for President Donald Trump: 34 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump vs. 41 percent who said they would be less likely to do so.

Republicans continue to tie Democratic candidates to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows twice as many voters would be less likely to vote for a Pelosi-endorsed candidate (41 percent) than more likely to vote for that candidate (20 percent).

But the CNN poll raises questions about how salient Pelosi will be for voters in November. Only 34 percent said Pelosi will be extremely or very important to their vote — half of 68 percent who said Trump will be extremely or very important to their vote.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted online on Aug. 10-12, and included 1,992 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The CNN poll was conducted Aug. 9-12 by SSRS and included 921 registered voters by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Aug. 9-13 with , 1,175 registered voters by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.


More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: https://politi.co/2vMxPeB | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2MSq25m