After days of intense lobbying, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Harry Mason ReidSenate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden Mellman: The likely voter sham Bottom line MORE (D-Nev.) is confident he has enough votes to trigger the nuclear option to change the Senate’s rules.

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Reid needs 50 votes for the controversial tactic, which Republicans say would forever “change the character of the Senate” but Democrats argue is necessary to fix a broken institution.

Reid expects to have at least 51 Democratic votes to prohibit Republicans from filibustering President Obama’s executive-branch nominees. Vice President Joe Biden Joe BidenThe Memo: Warning signs flash for Trump on debates Senate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden National postal mail handlers union endorses Biden MORE could provide insurance by presiding over the chamber to break a tie vote.

The standing rules of the Senate require a 67-vote majority to change the rules, but Reid would circumvent that by making a point of order that senators should be prohibited from filibustering executive-branch nominees.

This would clear the way for the Senate to confirm Obama’s most controversial nominees with simple majority votes, including Richard Cordray, the nominee to serve as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and three picks for the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).

It’s called the nuclear option because it would cause a meltdown in bipartisan relations. Senate Republicans on Thursday threatened to shut the upper chamber down until next year’s election.

Republican Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden Hillicon Valley: DOJ indicts Chinese, Malaysian hackers accused of targeting over 100 organizations | GOP senators raise concerns over Oracle-TikTok deal | QAnon awareness jumps in new poll The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden asks if public can trust vaccine from Trump ahead of Election Day | Oklahoma health officials raised red flags before Trump rally MORE (Ky.) warned Reid would be remembered as the “worst leader of the Senate ever” if he moves forward.

Sen. Carl Levin Carl Milton LevinMichigan to pay 0M to victims of Flint water crisis Unintended consequences of killing the filibuster Inspector general independence must be a bipartisan priority in 2020 MORE (D-Mich.) will vote against any point of order Reid raises to change the rules. Sens. Mark Pryor Mark Lunsford PryorCoronavirus poses risks for Trump in 2020 Tom Cotton's only Democratic rival quits race in Arkansas Medicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 MORE (D-Ark.), who is facing a tough election next year, and Max Baucus Max Sieben BaucusBottom line Bottom line The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - George Floyd's death sparks protests, National Guard activation MORE (D-Mont.) are “leaning no”, according to a senior Democratic aide.

Sens. Jack Reed John (Jack) Francis ReedWhen 'Buy American' and common sense collide Hillicon Valley: Russia 'amplifying' concerns around mail-in voting to undermine election | Facebook and Twitter take steps to limit Trump remarks on voting | Facebook to block political ads ahead of election Top Democrats press Trump to sanction Russian individuals over 2020 election interference efforts MORE (D-R.I.) and Tom Carper Thomas (Tom) Richard CarperDemocrat asks for probe of EPA's use of politically appointed lawyers Overnight Energy: Study links coronavirus mortality to air pollution exposure | Low-income, minority households pay more for utilities: report OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Democrats push resolution to battle climate change, sluggish economy and racial injustice | Senators reach compromise on greenhouse gas amendment stalling energy bill | Trump courts Florida voters with offshore drilling moratorium MORE (D-Del.) are two other swing votes, but Democratic leaders expect them to ultimately support Reid.

Reed has wavered back and forth in recent meetings with advocates pushing for Senate rules reform.

“He was agonizing over it,” said a member of the pro-reform coalition who lobbied him. “I think Jack Reed is now in the right place. Pryor and Baucus are still up in the air.”

Cathy Duvall, the national political director at the Sierra Club, which is a member of the Fix the Senate Now coalition, said some Democratic senators are concerned about possible GOP retribution.

“It’s my understanding there are a number of senators who still have some questions about the process and what the retribution might be,” she said.

She said whether Reid triggers the nuclear option will depend on whether Republicans allow the nominees to reach final votes.

“What happens on Tuesday depends on what Republicans do,” she said. “Will they continue to create unprecedented gridlock on nominations or will they join with Reid to get the Senate to work?”

McConnell has signaled he will allow final votes on two of Obama’s high-profile nominees, Tom Perez, the pick to serve as Labor secretary, and Gina McCarthy Regina (Gina) McCarthyOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Energy Department proposes showerhead standards rollback after Trump complaints | Interior memo scaling back bird protections is 'contrary to law,' court rules | Former EPA chiefs call for agency 'reset' Former EPA chiefs call for agency 'reset' Azar arrives in Taiwan amid tensions with China MORE, the nominee for administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Republicans have proposed a deal on the National Labor Relations Board that would have Obama submit new names for those positions, according to an aide familiar with the offer. Republicans argue two of the nominees — Richard Griffin and Sharon Block — are tainted because Obama recess-appointed them in January of 2012. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals later invalidated the appointment.

“It seems to me you don’t put people who have gone around the rules into power positions because they’re people who really will not abide by the rules,” said Sen. Orrin Hatch Orrin Grant HatchBottom line Bottom line Senate GOP divided over whether they'd fill Supreme Court vacancy MORE (R-Utah). “If they want to pick two others and maybe of the same philosophy, they’d probably get through.”

Reid, however, will not agree to any deal on nominees that leaves out Cordray, who is seen as essential to the functioning of the financial protection bureau, one of the chief reforms of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act.

“Cordray is not coming off the table. Period,” said a senior Democratic aide. “Republicans are trying to appeal to us for a deal on the NLRB guys. I don’t think that they’ve gotten a very receptive reaction.”

Barring filibusters on executive-branch nominees would give Obama greater leeway in appointing Janet Napolitano’s successor as secretary of Homeland Security.

“If Democrats actually do the nuclear option, it would reduce the confirmation process to one party rule,” said John Ashbrook, a spokesman for McConnell, in an e-mail. “President Obama could install controversial nominees with a complicit Democrat majority and no real input from the opposition. The selection of her replacement could be the first test of a scaled back check on the President’s power.”

Republicans warn this could undermine confidence in the implementation of pending immigration reform proposals.

Reid has scheduled a rare joint Democratic-Republican caucus meeting on Monday evening in an eleventh-hour effort to quell the mounting partisan tensions, but Democrats doubt it will yield a result. Republicans requested the bipartisan session.

The Senate will start voting on Tuesday to end debate on seven of Obama’s nominees, beginning with Cordray and then moving to the three nominees to the labor relations board. A senior Democratic aide said seven votes are likely to occur, but some could be delayed until later in the week.

If Republicans block a final vote on Cordray or the labor-board picks, Reid could make a motion to reconsider the vote to end debate on their nominations later in the week. That would give him an opportunity to trigger the nuclear option on Thursday, after procedural time to consider the other nominees has elapsed.

Reid has several procedural options for invoking the nuclear option. As of Friday, he had not decided which one to use, according to an aide.

--This report was updated at 1:47 p.m.