It's been two weeks since Election Day in Virginia, but there are still a few outstanding state House races where the outcome could determine whether Republicans lose the 51-49 majority they would hold if they won every seat where they currently lead. While recounts are far from uncommon in close races, one close district is facing a potential disaster of epic proportions after election administrators admitted that at least 83 voters were given ballots for the wrong district in a race where Republican Bob Thomas leads Democrat Joshua Cole by just 82 votes. It would be unreasonable to assume all 83 of those voters would have favored Cole if correctly assigned to the Fredericksburg-area 28th District, but it's plausible that Thomas' lead could shrink after a looming recount, meaning this administrative error potentially swung the race.

The state board of elections certified the results in all races except the 28th and the adjacent 88th District, where the local elections registrar wrongly assigned those 83 voters, although that latter district's outcome won't change regardless. Complicating matters further, the Republican incumbent who prevailed in the more GOP-leaning 88th was named Mark Cole, which may have introduced additional voter confusion when those 83 Virginians received the wrong ballots. Thus, even if we knew how those 83 voters voted in the 88th, there’s no telling how they would have voted if given the correct ballots in the 28th, especially since Virginia doesn’t have party registration.

It's deeply troubling that this sort of administrative error can happen and potentially swing a pivotal election. If the recount indeed lowers Thomas' margin to where these wrong-district votes could have changed the outcome, Democrats' only recourse may be legal action to void the election and hold a new one, which is not without precedent in other states but would depend on the particulars of Virginia state law.

Although the board certified the other 98 House races, Republican Del. David Yancey leads Democrat Shelley Simonds by a mere 10 votes in the 94th District. That margin is slim enough that it's quite plausible a recount could change the outcome. If Democrats indeed prevail in the 94th, they would force a 50-50 tie that would necessitate the GOP actually ceding some power and enter an arrangement to share control of the chamber with Democrats. And of course, if Simonds prevails and the wrong-district voters cause the 28th District to have to hold a new election, Democrats would have a shot at taking a 51-49 majority, a result that was practically unthinkable in the run-up to Election Day.