Losing four straight games to the Washington Capitals after winning the first two on road was, needless to say, an extremely disappointing end to the 2017-2018 season for the Blue Jackets, but the team has a very bright future, and it begins with this offseason. GM Jarmo Kekalainen has a lot of tough decisions to make in order to balance his roster under the salary cap (which is likely to increase from $75 million to around $80 million), beginning with which pending free agents to keep and which to cut loose. Some will be tougher than others.

Another factor that has to be weighing heavily on Jarmo’s mind is the 2019 offseason, at which point Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Zach Werenski, and others will need new contracts, likely with raises. There are also developing prospects, potential trades, and outside free agents to consider, and while it seems unlikely that Jarmo will be able to draft any players that can contribute immediately, it can’t be ruled out.

Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs)

Jack Johnson – D (77 GP, 3-8-11): This one should be the easiest decision Jarmo has all year. Johnson is coming off the worst season of his career and yet is likely looking for a sizable payday because of his bankruptcy situation. I truly hope he finds a team that can use him and afford to pay him what he’s looking for, but that team is not the Columbus Blue Jackets. The aging defenseman seems to have lost a step and is quickly being passed by younger defenders eager to earn a spot on the Blue Jackets roster. He rode the bench during the last stretch of the season, and it was reported that contract talks between Johnson and the Blue Jackets had ceased, so it seems highly unlikely that he will be wearing a CBJ sweater when fall rolls around.

Ian Cole – D (20 GP, 2-5-7, +11): As arguably Jarmo’s best trade deadline acquisition, Cole quickly found success playing alongside David Savard. He played sound defensively, blocked tons of shots, and was rarely a liability on the ice. However, some Blue Jackets said they felt Cole’s most valuable contributions to the team were his locker room presence and abundant communication. Savard and Bobrovsky both commented on their appreciation for how much easier it was playing with Cole when he was constantly talking on the ice. That being said, it’s unclear how much of a raise Cole will want from the $2.1 million he is currently making. With Johnson’s contract off the books, anything under $4 million seems reasonable and workable under the cap, so I’d definitely like to see him stay on this team.

Taylor Chorney – D (1 GP, 0-0-0): Waiver claim. Didn’t contribute. Pass.

Matt Calvert – LW (69 GP, 9-15-24): Good ol’ Matty Hustle. This one is particularly tough because of how hard Calvert works and how long he’s been with the organization. The longest-tenured Blue Jacket is a very likable guy who loves to step up in big ways (like the game-winning SHG after taking a puck to the head, or his two Playoff OT game winners). It would pain me to say goodbye, but I don’t think Calvert will be a Blue Jacket much longer. Personal feelings shouldn’t play a role in these kind of decisions, and Jarmo knows that. Calvert will likely ask for more money than Columbus can afford to offer him on their tight budget. If they can bring him back for a few seasons at under $2 million per year, I’d be extremely happy, but personally, I don’t see it happening.

Thomas Vanek – LW (19 GP, 7-8-15): Vanek was easily Jarmo’s biggest steal at the trade deadline, giving up just Jussi Jokinen and Tyler Motte to get him, and one who reportedly contributed more to the locker room than he did on the ice; and that’s not a knock on his play. He took several games to adapt to playing with the Blue Jackets, but eventually found his place on a line with Alexander Wennberg and Boone Jenner. That line became probably the second-best line Columbus had during the last month of the season. His teammates marveled at his leadership and ability to calm a locker room. However, Vanek disappeared in the playoffs when Wennberg was knocked out by a goon named Tom. I’d like to see him brought back as a role player on a relatively cheap deal, but I don’t see him as an essential part of this team and think Jarmo will wait until other pieces are in place to work on a deal with Vanek.

Mark Letestu – C (20 GP, 1-3-4): I think Letestu was a good deadline pickup, but he didn’t contribute a ton on the ice and seemed to decline a bit as the season wore on. It is possible that Jarmo will try to keep him as a depth center on a cheap deal because of his love for the city of Columbus, but I view him as a very low priority free agent.

Restricted Free Agents (RFAs)

Ryan Murray – D (44 GP, 1-11-12): The former second overall pick has been plagued with injuries throughout his short career, but has been a very solid defender when healthy. His history of injuries could lower his monetary value and lead to a team-friendly contract, but this one is really hard for me to pin down. I’d expect something in the range of 3-4 years at $3.5 million, but that’s just a guess. A trade is also on the table if a team is interested and willing to pony up, especially if Cole resigns with the team. He seems to play well with Markus Nutivaara (who just signed for 4 years at 2.7 million per year), so I think a trade is less likely, but Jarmo can be awfully unpredictable.

Boone Jenner – LW/C (75 GP, 13-19-32): The “A” on his sweater is a testament to Jenner’s importance to the Blue Jackets, but it’s difficult to predict how this offseason will go for him. He’s coming off a pretty bad year and was part of the “veteran slump” that plagued Columbus for a good chunk of the season. However, his production drastically increased after the acquisition of Vanek at the deadline, which could mean a pay increase for him. I’d guess either a short bridge deal around $3 million per year that would allow him to become an UFA more quickly or a slightly longer deal in the neighborhood of $4 million per year. I could also see a trade potentially involving Jenner if the right deal presents itself. This is particularly difficult guesswork, but it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Oliver Bjorkstrand – RW (82 GP, 11-29-40): The Danish winger was quietly one of the leading scorers for the Blue Jackets last season, but Head Coach John Tortorella doesn’t seem to fully trust him defensively and severely limited his ice time during the playoffs. A trade seems pretty unlikely with Bjorkstrand, so I’d expect him to sign for 3 years at slightly less than $2 million per year based on the precedent set by Jarmo in his negotiations with Josh Anderson last season. Bjorkstrand will have about the same amount of bargaining power as a RFA, and probably won’t attempt a hold out after watching Anderson miss all of training camp for nothing.

Cap Situation and Future Extensions

Cap hits in the NHL are fairly complicated, especially when bonuses for players like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Zach Werenski are factored in, and predicting how much future contracts will be worth is highly inaccurate, so the following figures are just crude estimates. However, they can provide some insight into where the team sits and what they might be able to afford on the free agent market.

Under the assumption that the cap ceiling jumps to $80 million (the rumored range is $78-82 million), the Blue Jackets will have about $21 million in cap space for next season before re-signing any pending free agents. As stated above, my conservative guesses for pending FA signings are:

Ian Cole – $4.0 million/year

Ryan Murray – $3.5 million/year

Boone Jenner – $4.0 million/year

Oliver Bjorkstrand – $1.85 million/year

That sums to a total of $13.35 million of the available $21 million on those 4 players, leaving (roughly) $7.65 million in cap space. Consequently, it also leaves $7.65 million (before a potential raise to the cap ceiling again next offseason) available to give raises to players with just one year left on their current contracts, such as Panarin, Bobrovsky, and Werenski. Jarmo has stated that giving these players extensions is one of his top priorities, and I suspect it is in the order I have them listed.

Jarmo could free up some cap space if he is able to get rid of Brandon Dubinsky’s horrendous $5.85 million/year contract with a trade, but I suspect no team wants it, and its impossible to predict what a team might want in return for taking it. Another option would be to buy out Dubinsky’s contract, saving $3.9 million/year over the remainder of the contract but costing an additional $1.95 million for 3 years after that.

As you can probably tell, this is the part of a GM’s job that becomes a real headache and is the reason why Jarmo spends countless hours working to constantly improve the team. I won’t try to speculate much further, but if the past few years have taught me one thing about Jarmo Kekalainen, it’s that I can expect to be pleasantly surprised by his work before the start of next season.

To Be Continued…

To avoid suffocating you with information, I’m going to cut this breakdown here and save talk of the upcoming NHL Entry Draft, potential free agent signings, and prospects who may be ready to crack the NHL roster next season for a Part 2 coming later this week.