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The U.S. and Mexico have been outperforming Canada on automotive investment since the economic recovery in 2009, said Kristin Dziczek vice-president of industry, labour and economics at the Center for Automotive Research in Michigan. But in the last couple of years, auto companies have dramatically scaled back their investments on both sides of the border amid slowing markets, rising interest rates and trade uncertainty.

Between 2010 and 2017, U.S. automakers invested approximately US$4 billion per quarter in their operations, a pace that has more than halved to US$1.7 billion per quarter since then.

“We’re in a period where there’s not a lot of investment anyway,” Dziczek said. “Things are just slowing down. And in the case of Windsor, two shifts straight time is regular capacity anyway. Three shifts is really knocking the doors out and getting all the production you can out of the bricks and mortar.”

In addition to sluggish markets, automakers are facing a “lot of other storm clouds on the horizon,” including uncertainty over Brexit, economic slowdowns in China and Europe and doubts about whether the renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement will be ratified in the United States, Dziczek said.

Gosselin of Fiat said trade tensions were not a factor in the decision to cut a third shift in Windsor. But in the industry as a whole, the ongoing turbulence over market access and trade is undoubtedly taking a toll on investment, Dziczek said.

“The least risky thing to do right now is to pick the U.S., but given the trends we’ve witnessed in investment what we’re actually seeing is more companies just sitting on their hands and waiting to see where it all lands,” Dziczek said.

• Email: npowell@nationalpost.com | Twitter: naomi_powell