Hey there, time traveller!

This article was published 3/7/2017 (1174 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Opinion

If Premier Brian Pallister listens really hard, he will be able to hear the footsteps of his political rivals gaining ground.

Slightly more than a year after leading his party to a thunderous majority victory in the April 2016 provincial election, Pallister’s Progressive Conservative government has lost significant support to the New Democrats and, to a much lesser extent, the Liberals.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll shows the governing Tories still out in front of their rivals, but their lead is now half of what it was in the election. Of even greater concern, the Tories are now trailing the NDP in Winnipeg.

The poll of 1,000 adults — conducted from June 6 to 18 — shows the Progressive Conservatives with 42 per cent support across the province, down from 49 per cent in December and 11 points down from the 53 per cent support they garnered in the 2016 election.

The NDP has seen its support rise to 30 per cent provincewide (up from 26 per cent in the election), with the Liberals at 20 per cent (up from 14 per cent). The Green party trails in fourth spot, with the support of seven per cent of respondents, up from five per cent in the election.

The really interesting story, however, is unfolding in seat-rich Winnipeg.

The poll shows the NDP with 34 per cent support, with the Tories trailing at 31 per cent and the Liberals at 25 per cent. With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, the results put the Tories and NDP in a statistical tie. Even so, the optics will no doubt serve as a boost to New Democratic spirits after a difficult and awkward first year in opposition.

Those Winnipeg numbers represent a particularly disturbing trend for the Pallister government. The support that has left the Tories in Winnipeg (-12) has been split between the NDP – which has regained the lead position in the city – and the Liberals (+8).

For Progressive Conservatives, there will be glass-half-full and glass-half-empty explanations of the poll results.

On the half-empty side, pessimists will note that Pallister is losing significant ground against two leaderless opposition parties, neither of which has put in a strong performance. That means the results are a direct reflection of the performance of the Tory government’s hardline austerity measures since coming to power just more than 15 months ago.

Glass-half-full Tories will argue the loss in support is not unexpected at this stage of their mandate.

It’s true the traditional narrative arc for a new government over a four-year term involves tough love and hard decisions front-end-loaded in the first two years, with more generous gestures introduced in the second half as an election approaches.

Provincial sales-tax cut?

It goes without saying that in his first 15 months in office, Pallister has definitely delivered on the first half of that arc. As for the second half of that equation, it’s not clear what Pallister can deliver to win back the support he is losing.

Despite the government’s broad austerity measures, it is highly unlikely Pallister will be in a position to balance the budget.

The economy continues to post only modest increases in growth, and revenues are just not rising fast enough to account for the dual impact of population growth and inflation. That would suggest at least another year or more of acute austerity.

That leaves only one other option for a second-half goodie: a cut to the provincial sales tax.

Pallister’s pledge to roll the PST back to seven per cent by the end of his first term was among the only campaign promises that carried a firm deadline. However, at this stage of the mandate, it’s unclear whether Pallister will have the fiscal wiggle room to keep this pledge.

Even if he’s able to deliver, it’s debatable whether a PST cut will be enough to mitigate the effect of Pallister’s spending cuts, many of which have drilled deeply into a number of key constituencies, both in the public and private sectors.

There have been significant cuts in infrastructure spending, including a moratorium on health infrastructure such as personal-care homes, reduced investments in core infrastructure such as roads and bridges, and the withdrawal from a number of marquee projects. These decisions have left construction contractors, trades and building professionals such as architects and engineers reeling.

There has also been an impact on municipal leaders, who are seething over freezes and cuts to operating and infrastructure grants, decisions that will ultimately put more pressure on property taxpayers.

In education, Pallister’s decision to hold funding to school divisions to a one per cent increase has been unpopular, with trustees complaining it will trigger significant increases in property taxes next year.

In health care, the Tories have launched a multi-pronged attack on rising costs that has affected the entire province. The reorganization of Winnipeg emergency departments has been particularly controversial and has mobilized broad protests.

And then there are the job cuts and wage freezes. From 900 positions being eliminated at Manitoba Hydro, to a 15 per cent across-the-board cut of government managers, to a controversial bill that would bypass collective bargaining in favour of a legislated wage freeze, Pallister has curried little favour with civil servants, many of whom live and vote in Winnipeg.

It’s important to note that current policies are in direct conflict with what Pallister promised during the election. The premier has argued NDP fiscal incompetence has put him in a position where he has had to cut deeper than he promised during the election campaign.

That is going to be an awkward argument to carry into the next election, particularly for a government that has been as bad at communication as the NDP government was at balancing a budget.

For now, Pallister and the Tories will have to live with the only fundamental truth found in poll results: that the trendline is more important than the actual numbers.

Right now, the Tories are trending down.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca