Marquette poll: Tammy Baldwin, Leah Vukmir tied in Wisconsin U.S. Senate race

After winning the Aug. 14 primary, Republican challenger Leah Vukmir got the bounce she was looking for.

Vukmir finds herself locked in a virtual dead heat with Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin among those voters likely to go to the polls in the Nov. 6 election, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.

Baldwin led Vukmir among likely voters by 49 percent to 47 percent, within the survey's margin of error.

Among the wider pool of registered voters, Baldwin led Vukmir by 51 percent to 43 percent. In June, Baldwin held a 9-point advantage over Vukmir among registered voters.

Since defeating primary challenger Kevin Nicholson, Vukmir has gotten better known among registered voters. Forty-eight percent of those polled lack an opinion on Vukmir, compared with 66 percent in July.

Vukmir is viewed favorably by 31 percent and unfavorably by 26 percent. Baldwin has a 43 percent favorable rating among registered voters and 40 percent unfavorable rating.

The Vukmir campaign said the poll shows momentum is building for the Republican.

Vukmir campaign manager Jess Ward said despite Baldwin spending $5 million on TV ads, the incumbent "is in the fight of her life because she clearly represents the far left of the Democratic Party supporting socialized health care, the Iran nuclear deal and refusing to fund a border wall."

Baldwin's campaign also saw positives from the poll.

"These close poll results reflect the over $11 million already spent by special interests against Tammy Baldwin," said Bill Neidhart, Baldwin campaign spokesman. "But in the end, Wisconsinites know that Tammy Baldwin is standing up for them and Leah Vukmir does the bidding of her special interest backers."

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Trump's approval rating

President Donald Trump remains under water with the public, 45 percent approving of the way he's handling the job and 51 percent disapproving.

But Republicans remain firmly in his corner, with 87 percent approving of his job performance.

Twenty-six percent said Trump is changing the Republican Party for the better while 44 percent said he's changing the party for the worse. Among Republicans, 55 percent said he's changing the party for the better and just 11 percent said for the worse.

Fifty-five percent said Trump is keeping his campaign promises while 41 percent said he is not.

On Trump's tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, 34 percent said it would help the economy and 48 percent said it would hurt. Sixty percent of Republicans said tariffs would help the economy, compared with just 19 percent of Democrats.

Fifty-five percent said free trade agreements have been generally good for the economy, while 29 percent said they are not.

Forty-one percent favored building a wall on the nation's southern border with Mexico while 54 percent opposed a wall.

Forty-eight percent said they had either some or a great deal of confidence in special counsel Robert Mueller's probe of Russia interference in the 2016 election, while 43 percent said they had only a little confidence or none at all with the investigation.

Just 5 percent of Republicans said they were confident it would be fair, compared with 52 percent of Democrats.

Sixty-one percent favor legalizing marijuana and regulating it like alcohol, while 36 percent were opposed.

The poll asked a series of questions on how politics affect personal relationships.

Forty percent said they have political conversations more than once a week with family and friends, and another 24 percent said they have such conversations once a week.

At work, 46 percent don't talk with co-workers about politics. Just 14 percent said they talked politics more than once a week and 13 percent said they talked politics at least once a week.

Forty-eight percent said that when they have political conversations those they talk issues with are equally mixed between liberal and conservative.

A third said they tried to persuade another person to vote for or against a specific candidate.

Eighteen percent said they have stopped talking to someone due to political disagreement.

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The poll of 800 registered voters was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. For 601 likely voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Including so-called leaners, 45 percent of those surveyed were Republican and 43 percent were Democrats.

Sixty-three percent of registered voters were very enthusiastic about voting. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans, 67 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of independents expressed a lot of enthusiasm for voting.

The poll did not measure public reaction to Tuesday's legal proceedings against Trump's former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, and former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort.

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Cohen pleaded guilty to tax evasion, bank fraud and campaign finance violations, while in a separate case, Manafort was found guilty of eight fraud charges.