TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- A perfect storm of influences is having a lasting effect on the world's petroleum markets and there's nothing on the horizon to sway its path.

With high oil and fuel prices, a weak global economy and worldwide government and consumer efforts to increase conservation and efficiency, some analysts doubt a return to the peak energy consumption levels seen just a few years ago.

"Bad economies breed efficiency," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics. Consumers are forced to cut down on costs, including energy consumption, and in doing that, "they may find a more permanent solution for their energy needs."

So "when the economy in the U.S. recovers, we will not return to 2007 consumption levels for several years and perhaps never," he said.

“ 'Bad economies breed efficiency.' ” — James Williams, WTRG Economics

Oil demand in developed countries likely reached its all-time peak in 2005, well before the so-called Great Recession began, according to a research report released this week by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

And while world oil demand is set to grow as the economy moves from recession to recovery, the demand lost among the 30 developed countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is "not likely to ever be regained," it said.

Petroleum demand in the transportation sector will flatten out as vehicle-ownership rates in developed countries reach a "saturation" level, consumers push for better fuel economy and governments increase the share of alternative fuels in the transportation sector, the report said.

"Petroleum for transportation has been the single driving force behind OECD oil demand for the past two decades," Aaron Brady, IHS CERA director of global oil, said in the report. "Now we are seeing the tempering of the last significant driver of oil demand in developed countries."

Statistics appear to agree. The U.S. is now 52% dependent on imported petroleum instead of 62% dependent because of lower consumption, according to Williams.

Some of the changes to demand are "permanent or at least reduce consumption for years," he said.

The rise in crude prices this week to more than $78 per barrel -- their highest level in a year --certainly doesn't help. See Futures Movers.

"If crude remains at $70, it will continue to lose market share as a transportation fuel here in the U.S.," Williams said.

Deceptive forces

Finding out what drives petroleum demand -- and what's been hurting it -- is simple enough, but figuring what will happen next isn't so cut and dry.

"Most of the drop in demand is because of lower economic activity and some is because of efficiency encouraged by the economic difficulties," said Williams. "The problem is isolating the difference."

Charles Perry, president of Perry Management, an energy-consulting firm, said that factors which control fuel consumption are almost exclusively the economy and the price of gasoline.

And the price of gasoline is still historically high.

The average U.S. retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $2.487 on Thursday, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. That's lower than consumers paid during the same time in the past two years, but annual prices had been climbing each year from 2002 to 2008, data from the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) showed.

"When times are bad and/or gasoline prices are high, people buy economic cars and hybrids and limit their driving," said Perry. But, overall, "in spite of much lip service and urging by the Federal government, the American public [has] not been inclined to conserve gasoline in the past and I do not think they will conserve in the future."

“ The U.S. has 'planted the first seeds of real fuel conservation, but they are scattered through the wind and many will take time to gain hold.' ” — Tom Kloza, Oil Price Information Service

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at OPIS, pointed out that Americans are largely undisciplined in the way they look at fuel consumption. "We've tightened our belts, but we're still consuming many more [British thermal units/calories] per day than counterparts in the rest of the world," he said, pointing out that if the U.S. had the same Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards as Europe, it would be using about 3 million barrels per day less gasoline.

Still, when it comes to energy conservation, Todd Hultman, editor of DailyFutures.com, believes the world is experiencing a time of "radical change."

"Big investments are being made simultaneously in wind, solar, geothermal, ethanol etc. -- and China appears to be leading the way, even ahead of big progress being made in Europe and the U.S.," he said.

Over in the U.S., the government has "planted the first seeds of real fuel conservation, but they are scattered through the wind and many will take time to gain hold," Kloza said.

Recognizing the moment when that happens will be difficult.

"There has been a tendency to underestimate the degree of conservation that higher prices will bring, partly because it usually gathers momentum slowly and partly because economic weakness and then recovery can confuse observers," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.

At the same time, as recovery continues, "there will be more investment in new, usually more efficient equipment," and that's especially true if energy prices remain higher, he said.

Against the grain

But don't hold your breath. Those types of changes come at a gradual, maybe even a snail's, pace and there are strong forces at hand ready to offset the impact of conservation and alternative fuels.

One of them is emerging markets.

"The real driver for oil demand is rising oil intensity per capita in the emerging economies, which now comprise half of global GDP," said Evan Smith, co-manager of U.S. Global Investors' Global Resources Fund PSPFX, +1.27% .

In China, monthly passenger-car sales just passed the 1 million units mark in September to set a record -- triple the level of four years ago, he said.

Overall, population growth points to an increase in energy consumption, not a decline, said Chris Mayer, editor of Agora Financial's Capital and Crisis -- and that population growth is seen in places like India, China and the Middle East.

"Emerging markets are still early in the commodity-intensive phase of their development," he said.

IHS CERA expects oil demand to increase to 89.1 million barrels per day in 2014, from 83.8 million in 2009, with 83% of that rise coming from non-OECD countries like China.

"Conservation is growing in popularity," said Anthony Sabino, a professor of Law at St. John's University whose legal practice includes oil and gas law. Just keep in mind "it has a long way to go before it becomes a driving force."

Even so, Sabino predicts that when the global economy recovers and demand picks up, "conservation, permanent or temporary, will have a damper effect on prices."