AFP

THE war that raged in the Democratic Republic of Congo, mostly in the east of the country, between 1998 and 2003, claimed millions of lives and sucked in plundering armies from Rwanda, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Angola and Namibia. The scale of the misery caused by that conflict—and the importance of Congo's massive mineral wealth—explains the anxiety among ordinary Congolese, diplomats, aid workers and others, following the advance this week of a Tutsi rebel army towards the town of Goma in eastern Congo. If Congo falls apart again, the humanitarian cost would be enormous.

The United States and the European Union have sent senior diplomats to the region. The UN Security Council has held a special session to discuss the situation. That show of concern has seemed enough to halt, perhaps only briefly, the advance of the Tutsi rebels. Their commander, Laurent Nkunda, has declared a ceasefire and promised a “humanitarian corridor” to allow the passage of food and other aid to displaced people.

That offers some comfort to the tens of thousands of Congolese on the run, thirsty and hungry, caught between Mr Nkunda's forces and the demoralised and ill-disciplined Congolese government troops. Some were heading for Goma, others for the Virunga National Park. By some estimates, there are now 1m people displaced in the green hills and diminishing forests of North Kivu, a region in the east.

Mr Nkunda claims to be fighting to protect Tutsis from Hutu militias that he says played a part in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, which saw perhaps 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus killed. He is particularly incensed by what he sees as collusion between one of those Hutu groups, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR,) and the Congolese government. The president of Congo, Joseph Kabila, for his part, is unhappy at the continued links between Mr Nkunda and the Tutsi-dominated Rwandan government.

Human Rights Watch, an advocacy group, says it has evidence that Mr Nkunda is recruiting for his 4,000 strong force inside Rwanda, including from demobbed Rwandan soldiers. UN officials involved in the 17,000-strong peacekeeping operation in Congo believe that Rwandan troops have aided Mr Nkunda's advance on Goma by firing on UN helicopter gunships. This is bad news for the stability of the Great Lakes region and for those foreign donors, notably Britain, which poured money into Rwanda on the understanding that it did not repeat its previous brutal incursions into Congo.

Rwanda says that it has no wish to get sucked back in to its neighbouring country, but is fed up with the lack of leadership in Kinshasa. Some senior Rwandan officials are dismissive of Mr Kabila's ability to project any force in eastern Congo. By contrast, diplomats in Kigali believe that tiny Rwanda, with its American- and British-trained army, could probably march all the way to Kinshasa unopposed. What is unclear is the extent of the relationship between the Rwandan president, Paul Kagame, with Mr Nkunda. Mr Kagame says he has no ties except that they are both Tutsis. Analysts think that is untrue, but generally agree that Mr Nkunda is largely following his own agenda. “Think Serb and Bosnian Serb,” says one.

The immediate question is whether the UN peacekeeping force, MONUC, can defend Goma should Mr Nkunda decide to attack. The country is host to the largest peacekeeping force in the world, but this is already stretched to its limit. MONUC's head, Alan Doss, has asked for a temporary deployment of 2,000 more police and special-forces soldiers to shore up his defences. France, sensing an opportunity to push on with its aim of creating an EU standing army, wants to deploy a rapid-reaction force of some 1,500 European troops but is so far being blocked by Germany. That puts the UN in a dangerous position. If atrocities begin to be documented the already desperate local population may turn on the blue helmets.

Already several compounds have been attacked and UN vehicles set ablaze. Much will depend on the maturity of the Congolese army. They have given little reason for hope, so far preferring to shoot up brothels and loot rather than protect the displaced in Goma. Almost everyone agrees that reining in the various Hutu militias, especially the FDLR, is a necessary step if relations between Kigali and Kinshasa are to be improved. But this cannot be seen to happen only on Rwanda's terms. Mr Kagame will need to provide clear evidence of a break with Mr Nkunda and a commitment to preventing Rwandan citizens from fighting in his militia.