A study from Texas-based research firm Parks Associates predicts that 33 million US households will have broadband connections of 10Mbps or faster by 2012. As of the end of 2007, that figure stood at 5.7 million, which means that a lot of change will have to occur in the US market for that 33 million figure to become a reality.

There are two competing factors at play, according to Parks. First is the arrival of technologies like DOCSIS 3.0 that will make 10Mbps+ speeds more widely available. Comcast has big plans this year for DOCSIS 3.0, which could lead to download speeds of over 100Mbps. Other cable companies are likely to follow suit soon, since upgrading their networks isn't prohibitively expensive.

"Moving to DOCSIS 3.0 is not that bad of a capital investment," Larry Socher, an executive in Accenture's Communications & High Tech Operating Group, told Ars. "It's a lot less painful to deploy DOCSIS 3.0 than FTTH [fiber-to-the-home] or even FTTN [fiber-to-the-node]."

Fiber is the other factor. Both Verizon and AT&T are heavily invested in fiber-centric network upgrades, with Verizon's FiOS running it directly to the home and AT&T stopping at the node with U-Verse. Combined, the fiber projects of the two telecoms will pass well over 30 million homes by 2010.

But Parks Associates sees clouds on the high-bandwidth horizon. Broadband providers need to do a better job with traffic management and managing net neutrality issues for the 33 million milestone to be reached. Socher agrees. "[Broadband] operators [need to] do a better job of educating the public that... the entire neighborhood is subsidizing one or two kids doing P2P traffic."

Although ISPs have lined up to support Comcast in the Federal Communication Commission's investigation into the cable company's traffic management practices, Verizon has always been happy to talk smack about the bandwidth constraints faced by cable ISPs. Socher believes that all broadband ISPs need to be on the same page when it comes to both traffic management and being transparent with their customers. "It's in all of their interests to work together," he told Ars. "Ultimately, it's going to drive value to all of them and increase the size of the pie."

Given the advent of DOCSIS 3.0 in the US and the continued rollout of FiOS and U-verse, the 33 million figure given by Parks is a very real possibility for 2012. Unfortunately, the 10Mbps-plus goodness is unlikely to be spread around evenly. In areas where a fiber-loving telecom is going head-to-head with a cable company (think Verizon FiOS vs. Comcast High Speed Internet in Boston), we'll see a concentration of homes with superfast broadband. But those living in areas with little high-speed competition (like Denver, which is served by Qwest) are likely to be stuck with single-digit broadband speeds when 2012 rolls around.

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