Mustachioed, tall and in many ways resembling a Cretan warlord, Vangelis Meimarakis, the man never meant to be a leader, may emerge as the surprise winner of the Greek elections next week.

Opinion polls are showing that almost nothing about the snap ballot, the third this year, is reminiscent of previous votes – starting with Meimarakis, who fortuitously has found himself heading the conservative New Democracy party. Under his watch, the pro-European force has come within a whisper of former prime minister Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza.

A poll released by the University of Macedonia on 11 September showed New Democracy trailing by just one point with 19%. Those polled said they had been impressed by Meimarakis’s performance in a political leaders’ debate last week, compared to 13.5% who favoured Tsipras.

A survey by Palmos Analysis on Saturday reinforced the findings, with the conservatives gathering 23.7% of voter support, compared with 24.9% for the leftists. “He has an emotional intelligence [and speaks] common sense,” said political analyst Dimitris Kerides.

“He has also managed to unite the party’s various factions, move it to the centre and, in so doing, appeal to a wider audience,” he told the Observer. “He is the great surprise of this election.”

In July, data released by polling company Metron Analysis revealed a 25-point gap between New Democracy and Syriza, with the leftists leading at 42%. Assured of victory, Tsipras called the snap election on 20 August, hoping to tighten his grip on power after a mutiny of hardliners – opposing the tough terms of a third bailout for the debt-stricken nation – in effect stripped him of a parliamentary majority.

But mirroring the unpredictability of life in a country that only narrowly survived euro exit when creditors agreed in July to extend an €86bn financial lifeline to Athens after months of acrimonious negotiations, little has gone to plan. Nearly six years after the eruption of the financial crisis, the “express” election, while shorn of the bellicosity of previous polls, has revealed Greeks to be in a fickle mood.

With many blaming the leftists for months of political and economic turmoil – culminating with Tsipras’s shock decision to put the demands of creditors to popular referendum and the imposition of debilitating capital controls – the backing for Syriza has dropped dramatically.

The euphoria that greeted Tsipras’s stunning victory in January has instead been replaced by political cynicism. The erstwhile firebrand’s decision to roll back on the promise to “eradicate austerity” by accepting further reforms, including spending cuts and tax increases as the price of averting default and remaining in the euro, has alienated many.

First-time voters, Syriza’s traditional core supporters and young Greeks hit by unemployment of more than 50% – all of whom had rushed to vote “no” in the referendum, only to see their vote turned into a “yes” – feel particularly betrayed. “It seems pointless to vote when my ballot seems so worthless,” said Ilias Papazoglou, describing himself as an unemployed entrepreneur. “What we are being asked to do is vote for a government that will pick up the phone when Merkel calls and do whatever Germany says.”

Berlin, the main provider of the bailout funds that have propped up the moribund Greek economy, has made clear that it would like to see a grand coalition that could implement the tough measures the rescue package demands. “It is much better that Tsipras is in the government enforcing policies,” said one EU official. “If he is in opposition he is on the street fomenting trouble.”

With no party set to win an absolute majority, Meimarakis, who took over New Democracy as an interim leader when Antonis Samaras, his predecessor resigned in July, has been unusually consensual, saying collaboration is crucial to enforcing reforms.

Indicative of the tough times that lie ahead, schools nationwide failed to open on Friday citing budget cuts and lack of staff. Rising poverty levels has stoked similar concerns that Greece could be heading towards its harshest and most explosive winter yet.