Fierce rivalry between Chinese civilian, paramilitary and military agencies has created a "genuine risk" of conflict in the South China Sea, says a new report.

Reopening one of the great debates of Chinese foreign policy, analyst Linda Jakobson argues that President Xi Jinping is not a dominating leader and there is no "grand plan" of tailored territorial coercion.

Chinese fishing vessels near the disputed Meiji reef in the South China Sea in July 2012. Credit:AP

Rather, she says, local governments, state oil companies, fishermen and as many as five maritime surveillance agencies are furiously competing to expand bureaucratic turf under the "pretext" of general nationalist policy directions from above.

And her model of bureaucratic competition could be even more dangerous than any grand territorial plan.