Methodology

For each year, the count of days at or above 9032 degrees reflects a 21-year rolling average. Temperature observations for your hometown are averaged over an area of approximately 625 km² (240 square miles), and may not match single weather-station records.

The time series is based on historical data for 1960-2000. The 2001-2020 period relies on a combination of historical data and future projections. After 2020, the data uses a mixed climate model that captures a broad range of extreme temperature responses. The “likely” future range reflects outcomes with 66 percent probability of occurrence in the RCP 4.5 scenario.

We do not include locations with fewer than three 9032-degree days per year on average throughout the entire time period, or for selected other regions where day-to-day variation in maximum temperature is underestimated by the model.

A more detailed FAQ and methodology are available from Climate Impact Lab.