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A majority of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are unsure what to think about the Democratic Party’s plans to allow them to caucus virtually next year, creating one of the bigger question marks around the 2020 presidential contest in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

In what could be the largest ever expansion of the caucus process, the party has announced plans to host six virtual caucuses in which Iowa Democrats could participate online or over the phone in the week leading up to the Feb. 3, 2020, caucuses.

But a majority of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers don’t know enough about the party’s plans for the virtual caucuses to say whether they approve of the process, a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll finds. The uncertainty holds even for those who say they will probably or definitely use the new system.

Sue Dvorsky, a former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party who is not affiliated with any 2020 presidential campaigns, called the virtual caucuses “the most substantial change we’ve ever done” and said she’s confident they will succeed in expanding the electorate. But each campaign will have to decide how to incorporate the new process into their strategies.

“I think that anybody that tells you they know how this is going to work in actual life is absolutely full of crap,” she said. “I don’t think they know at all.”

The results of the virtual caucuses will account for 10% of the final delegate equivalents awarded on caucus night, regardless of how many people participate virtually, according to the Iowa Democratic Party’s proposed rules. The results of the in-person voting will account for 90%.

Among those who say they are likely to participate in a virtual caucus, 54% say they know too little about the process to say whether they approve or disapprove. The rate of uncertainty is similar, 51%, among those who plan to caucus in person.

Similar numbers from both groups approve of the virtual caucus plans: 42% of likely in-person caucusgoers and 45% of likely virtual caucus participants. Seven percent of likely in-person caucusgoers disapprove of the virtual caucus plans, as do 1% of likely virtual caucus participants.

The poll, conducted June 2-5 by Selzer & Co., sampled 433 registered voters who plan to attend the Democratic caucuses in person and 167 who plan to attend virtually. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points for the in-person group and 7.6 percentage points for the virtual caucus group.

More of the latest Iowa Poll results and coverage

How do likely virtual and in-person participants differ?

The virtual caucuses could bring a group of younger, more moderate and less politically experienced Iowans into the caucus process, the poll found. Almost two in three, or 63%, of those likely to caucus virtually are under the age of 45, compared to 51% of likely in-person caucusgoers.

Rachel Vanausdall attended a 2016 caucus as an observer but could not participate because she was registered to vote in a different state at the time. The 28-year-old ecologist said she’s interested in caucusing virtually because she hopes it would be more efficient than the in-person caucuses.

“I have generally a really busy schedule most of the time, and it would be easier to participate in that if I could do it from home,” said Vanausdall, a poll respondent from Ames.

Although she said she will definitely caucus virtually in 2020, Vanausdall also said, “I still don’t know enough about it to, I guess, make a fully educated decision.”

Those who plan to take advantage of the virtual option express less certainty about their plans to caucus than those who plan to go in person that night.

Just under a third, or 32%, of the likely participants in the virtual caucuses say they will definitely caucus. But among those who plan to attend in person, 62% say they’ll definitely caucus.

A majority of those who say they are likely to caucus virtually — 52% — say they have never caucused before, but among those who plan to go in person, just 17% say 2020 would be their first caucus.

Virtual participants are also more likely to be unaffiliated with a political party, with 31% registered as no-party voters compared to 11% of likely in-person caucusgoers. (Voters will have to register as Democrats before they caucus and only registered virtual caucusgoers will be permitted to use the online or phone option.)

Respondents who say they are likely to caucus virtually are, generally, less educated than those who plan to attend the caucuses in person. Forty-nine percent of likely virtual caucus participants hold diplomas from four-year colleges, compared to 63% of those who say they will caucus in person.

Yet the two groups share much the same views on a range of policy issues. Both groups are about equally likely to consider key issues as must-haves when deciding which candidates to support. Among those key issues: abortion rights, recognition of climate change as the greatest threat to humanity and restoration of a ban on assault-style weapons, the poll found.

Among the leading candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden draws more support from likely virtual caucusgoers (33%) than from those who plan to caucus in person (23%), as does California Sen. Kamala Harris (10% among the virtual group, 6% among in-person). Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s support is about even between the groups. But Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders draws heavier support from likely in-person caucusgoers (16%) than the virtual group (10%), as does South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (15%, in-person; 9%, virtual).

‘I can just see it being a real train wreck if it goes wrong’

Some Iowans say they remain eager to spend several hours on a Monday evening in churches and school gyms talking politics face-to-face with their neighbors. To them, a virtual experience could eliminate what makes the caucuses unique.

Alex Wilkening, a poll participant and 24-year-old software developer from Cedar Falls, said he thinks it’s important to debate with other Iowans about the candidates and ideas, and he wants to be in the room to try to persuade delegates for non-viable campaigns to join his candidate. He’s currently leaning toward Warren but hasn’t made a final decision.

“It’s important to talk with people about why these candidates matter,” he said.

But Wilkening is still happy the Democratic Party is providing a virtual option.

“It’s not what I’d prefer, but a lot of people don’t have two hours to go caucus in person,” he said. But Wilkening said he’s worried about the potential for logistical issues with a virtual caucus. “I can just see it being a real train wreck if it goes wrong.”

There were enough problems with his in-person caucus in 2016 without adding technical difficulties on top, he said.

“I think like 25 people wound up leaving by accident because they were confused about the caucus not being over,” he said.

Dvorsky, the former Democratic Party chair, said everyone in the party is committed to making the virtual caucuses work. There will be dry runs of the process before caucusing begins, and Dvorsky believes there will be “ample time to make sure that there are no glitches.”

Tavo Garcia, a 42-year-old poll participant from Iowa City, says he’ll definitely participate in a virtual caucus next year. He said the new option gives him a way to avoid the hassle of the in-person experience.

Garcia understands some people might be skeptical of the new technology involved in a virtual caucus system but thinks it would be pretty popular if it’s user-friendly.

When he caucused in 2016 in “this tiny little church,” he said, the experience was “just kind of a cluster.”

About this poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted June 2-5, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 600 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses. These 600 likely Democratic caucus participants were sorted into two discrete groups: 433 who say they plan to attend a caucus in person and 167 who say they plan to participate online or by telephone in a virtual caucus.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,776 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 433 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses in person have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. Questions based on the sample of 167 voters likely to participate in a virtual caucus have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 7.6 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 7.6 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Because the proposed rules for the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses at the time this poll was conducted include a provision that the results of the in-person caucuses will account for 90 percent of delegate equivalents and the results of the virtual caucuses will account for 10 percent of the delegate equivalents, the first-choice candidate results of this poll have been reported out in three ways: 1) among likely in-person caucus attenders alone; 2) among likely virtual caucus participants alone; and 3) combined in a calculation that gives 90% weight to the preferences of the in-person attenders and 10% weight to the preferences of virtual participants.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.

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