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Disclaimer: All statistics referenced are of the past 2 months. I do not look at anyone else’s predictions, I don’t listen to CSGO analysts. I am an experienced researcher of the game and I put my money where my mouth is.

I am aware the layout is messy. I am still new to WordPress. If there is a good amount of interest in these analyses I will significantly improve them for the future

Favorite/Least favorite maps are judged by how often the team chooses to play it. Not based on their performance on those maps.

If you bet, I suggest betting Bitcoin at http://nitrogenesports.eu – they allow you to bet map-by-map, while the match is on-going. This gives you many opportunities for easy bets.

Context

Faze has had a very good run through this tournament so far. They’re in the honeymoon phase most new teams experience. Despite this, in my opinion, Faze has not been properly tested this tournament, for the following reasons:

In the group stage, they were able to ban all maps they weren’t comfortable on (they played train in 5 of their 7 group stage maps) Immortals messed up hugely by picking inferno instead of cache, allowing Faze to simply outskill them on a map IMT is not experienced on. This put Immortals into a position where they would need to win 1 tough map (mirage) and 1 miracle map (train) to win the match. Knowing they would need to pull off a miracle on train, their mindset was destroyed on mirage which had to affect their motivation/performance. Immortals showed them far too much respect and as a result allowed them to get a huge number of rounds they shouldn’t have. I suspect Astralis will not show them such respect because they can meet them in terms of skill.

Astralis had a tougher road, having to beat NaVi on decent form and convincingly beating a hot Heroic. They beat NaVi and Heroic on their best maps.

Faze has not yet beaten an opponent on their opponent’s best or second-best map. This doesn’t mean that Faze isn’t good, it just means that they haven’t been properly tested in this tournament, so it’s difficult to know exactly where they stand against Astralis.

Astralis will not be happy simply reaching the major of this tournament. They will only be happy with a win. I believe Faze will be happy with just reaching the final, as they are a brand new team that has already achieved a massive success. Therefore, I give Astralis the advantage in terms of motivation and mindset.

Map Preference

Faze’s favorite maps:

train mirage nuke

Faze’s least favorite maps:

cbble cache inferno

Astralis’s favorite maps:

overpass nuke train

Astralis’s least favorite maps:

cbble cache mirage

Astralis and Faze share two of the same favorite maps: nuke and train. Thus these maps are highly likely to be seen, as neither will want to veto them. If Astralis wants to gamble and ban train to take away Faze’s best map, then this opens them up to the risk that Faze will pick cache, which Astralis doesn’t like playing on. Astralis is much better at train than cache, and therefore I expect Astralis to ban as they normally would.

Both teams don’t pick inferno, but both have good results on it and are willing to play it.

Let’s take a look at the likely veto process…

Astralis bans cache

Faze bans cbble

Astralis picks overpass

Faze picks train

Astralis picks inferno

Faze picks mirage

nuke

I don’t think the maps will decide this match. Both teams are fully capable of turning around a map based on skill and don’t necessarily need a tactical advantage to win.

Neither of these teams are likely to ban the best map of their opponent.

Player vs Player Expectations

The below data is from the two maps Astralis played against Faze during Katowice 2017. Both maps were train (Faze’s favorite map).

NiKo vs Astralis

Xyp9x 0.50 2:4 33.33% dupreeh 0.25 2:8 20.00% gla1ve 5.00 5:1 83.33% device 0.71 5:7 41.67% Kjaerbye 0.75 3:4 42.86%

allu vs Astralis

Xyp9x 2.00 2:1 66.67% dupreeh 1.33 4:3 57.14% gla1ve 1.00 3:3 50.00% device 0.17 1:6 14.29% Kjaerbye 0.25 2:8 20.00%

karrigan vs Astralis

Xyp9x 1.00 3:3 50.00% dupreeh 1.67 5:3 62.50% gla1ve 2.00 8:4 66.67% device 0.33 3:9 25.00% Kjaerbye 7.00 7:1 87.50%

k1o vs Astralis

Xyp9x 0.86 6:7 46.15% dupreeh 1.00 6:6 50.00% gla1ve 2.00 4:2 66.67% device 1.00 4:4 50.00% Kjaerbye 0.75 3:4 42.86%

rain vs Astralis

Xyp9x 1.00 5:5 50.00% dupreeh 1.67 5:3 62.50% gla1ve 2.00 4:2 66.67% device 0.40 2:5 28.57% Kjaerbye 0.40 2:5 28.57%

The bold relationships are interesting to consider. device seems to consistently outmatch every player in Faze except kio. This is also done on Faze’s preferred map, which makes it more significant. Kjaerbye also has impressive matchups, except against Karrigan, interestingly.

Faze’s best player NiKo only has a positive K/D against gla1ve.

Recent Activity

? indicates that their profile is set to private

Name Hours NiKo 65 allu 56 karrigan 58 rain 67 aizy 70

Name Hours device 62 Kjaerbye 56 Xyp9x 66 dupreeh 58 gla1ve 53

Hours are about even.

Map Specific Analysis

Likely maps to be played: Train, Nuke, Mirage, Overpass, Inferno.

Disclaimer: +relative means relative to the average of the other 4 players.

Astralis – Train

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 8 device 168 (+41) 1.41 (+0.50) +49 (+61) 1.23 (+0.31) 1.24 (+0.31) Astralis 2 8 Kjaerbye 141 (+8) 1.08 (+0.11) +11 (+15) 1.01 (+0.03) 1.02 (+0.03) Astralis 3 8 dupreeh 127 (-10) 0.88 (-0.15) -17 (-21) 0.92 (-0.08) 0.90 (-0.12) Astralis 4 8 Xyp9x 127 (-11) 0.95 (-0.07) -7 (-9) 0.90 (-0.10) 0.96 (-0.04) Astralis 5 8 gla1ve 116 (-26) 0.78 (-0.30) -33 (-43) 0.86 (-0.16) 0.84 (-0.19) Astralis

Pistol Round Analysis

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 5(/8) 62.5% T Pistol Round Win Rate 1(/8) 12.5% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 6(/16) 37.5% Map wins with CT pistol 5(/5) 100.0% Map wins with T pistol 1(/1) 100.0% Map wins with both pistols 1(/1) 100.0% Map losses without CT pistol 2(/3) 66.7% Map losses without T pistol 2(/7) 28.6% Map losses without both pistols 2(/3) 66.7%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON train…

Second round win rate on train: 4(/6) (66.7%) – CT: 3(/5) (60.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on train: 3(/6) (50.0%) – CT: 2(/5) (40.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 3(/6) (50.0%) – CT: 2(/5) (40.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON train…

Second round win rate on train: 1(/10) (10.0%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 1(/7) (14.3%)

Third round win rate on train: 1(/10) (10.0%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 1(/7) (14.3%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 5(/10) (50.0%) – CT: 2(/3) (66.7%) – T: 3(/7) (42.9%)

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 13(/28) 46.4% T bomb hold rate 16(/23) 69.6%

Average Rating R 1 :0.99

Winner Loser Score Map Date Event VOD Astralis 16:12 (7:8)(9:4) de_train March 04, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 Astralis –TIEBREAKER– de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/TFchHJia5KI?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=124 FaZe –TIEBREAKER– de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/_V_p6cbi0B8?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=202 Astralis 16:8 (11:4)(5:4) de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/mOrTAOockz0?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=225 Astralis 16:12 (8:7)(8:5) de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/fi00HuxgoW4?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=108 Virtus.pro 16:4 (12:3)(4:1) de_train February 19, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v123272290&t=3h15m23s Astralis 16:14 (6:9)(10:5) de_train January 29, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/eyJ669JsqvA?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1414 Astralis 16:5 (11:4)(5:1) de_train January 24, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/wSmfpbIPmPc?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=21 Astralis 16:12 (8:7)(8:5) de_train January 23, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/qOjsZ0kp6Fo?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=24262 GODSENT 16:6 (12:3)(4:3) de_train January 22, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/Z-z0Mmn3IO0?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=46

Device is their carry on train. His stats are significantly better than his teammates. Astralis is quite good at CT pistols, horrible with T pistols. Astralis has not yet won a game of nuke without winning the CT pistol, which is interesting. As CT’s they are often eco’d by T’s after winning the pistol. If device has a bad game, it’s highly unlikely they can beat Faze on train.

FaZe – Train

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 9 allu 167 (+13) 1.20 (+0.18) +28 (+25) 1.11 (+0.10) 1.07 (+0.07) FaZe 2 3 jkaem 56 (-2) 1.04 (-0.12) +2 (-6) 1.06 (-0.04) 1.02 (-0.09) FaZe 3 9 rain 159 (+4) 1.03 (-0.03) +4 (-4) 1.05 (+0.02) 1.04 (+0.02) FaZe 4 3 NiKo 56 (+5) 0.93 (-0.03) -4 (-2) 1.03 (+0.08) 1.01 (+0.06) FaZe 5 9 karrigan 155 (-2) 1.03 (-0.03) +4 (-4) 1.02 (-0.01) 1.03 (+0.01) FaZe

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on train: 18



train

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 4(/9) 44.4% T Pistol Round Win Rate 4(/9) 44.4% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 8(/18) 44.4% Map wins with CT pistol 4(/4) 100.0% Map wins with T pistol 4(/4) 100.0% Map wins with both pistols 3(/3) 100.0% Map losses without CT pistol 3(/5) 60.0% Map losses without T pistol 3(/5) 60.0% Map losses without both pistols 3(/4) 75.0%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON train…

Second round win rate on train: 6(/8) (75.0%) – CT: 3(/4) (75.0%) – T: 3(/4) (75.0%)

Third round win rate on train: 5(/8) (62.5%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 3(/4) (75.0%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 2(/8) (25.0%) – CT: 1(/4) (25.0%) – T: 1(/4) (25.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON train…

Second round win rate on train: 5(/10) (50.0%) – CT: 1(/5) (20.0%) – T: 4(/5) (80.0%)

Third round win rate on train: 5(/10) (50.0%) – CT: 1(/5) (20.0%) – T: 4(/5) (80.0%)

Fourth round win rate on train: 5(/10) (50.0%) – CT: 1(/5) (20.0%) – T: 4(/5) (80.0%)

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 11(/27) 40.7% T bomb hold rate 20(/22) 90.9%

Average Rating R 1 :1.03

Winner Loser Score Map Date Event VOD FaZe –TIEBREAKER– de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/_V_p6cbi0B8?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=202 FaZe –TIEBREAKER– de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/dF6XLSU28IQ?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=387 Astralis 16:8 (11:4)(5:4) de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/mOrTAOockz0?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=225 FaZe 16:12 (6:9)(10:3) de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/0O_heGUFVWg?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=438 FaZe fnatic 16:11 (9:6)(7:5) de_train March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/GnOVoK3oD7I?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=61 Na`Vi 16:11 (6:9)(10:2) de_train February 18, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/hjWOuIwPC4g?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=235 FaZe EnVyUs 16:12 (8:7)(8:5) de_train February 09, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/jyME0YR34GY?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1079 FaZe 16:7 (12:3)(4:4) de_train February 08, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/3riXMGtXNDc?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=178 TSK 16:3 (12:3)(4:0) de_train January 28, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v117961933&t=0h38m16s FaZe 16:11 (10:5)(6:6) de_train January 09, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 Europe Closed Qualifier http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v113571832&t=6h37m30s FaZe 16:4 (12:3)(4:1) de_train January 09, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 Europe Closed Qualifier http://www.youtube.com/embed/dd1Dq0_ZO6I?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=100

All of the players of Faze perform very well on train. All have a rating > 1.0 which is indicative of a very strong map for a team. Interestingly, their wins on the map are highly correlated with pistol wins, if they win pistols it’s highly likely they will win the map.

They have an amazing ability to eco CT’s as T’s.

Astralis – Mirage

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 5 device 110 (+25) 1.45 (+0.30) +34 (+23) 1.37 (+0.34) 1.34 (+0.28) Astralis 2 5 Kjaerbye 98 (+10) 1.29 (+0.10) +22 (+8) 1.23 (+0.17) 1.18 (+0.08) Astralis 3 5 dupreeh 86 (-5) 1.15 (-0.08) +11 (-6) 1.06 (-0.04) 1.05 (-0.08) Astralis 4 5 gla1ve 79 (-13) 1.13 (-0.10) +9 (-8) 0.94 (-0.20) 1.01 (-0.12) Astralis 5 5 Xyp9x 76 (-17) 1.06 (-0.20) +4 (-15) 0.88 (-0.26) 0.99 (-0.16) Astralis

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on mirage: 10



mirage

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 4(/5) 80.0% T Pistol Round Win Rate 5(/5) 100.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 9(/10) 90.0% Map wins with CT pistol 3(/4) 75.0% Map wins with T pistol 3(/5) 60.0% Map wins with both pistols 3(/4) 75.0% Map losses without CT pistol 1(/1) 100.0% Map losses without T pistol 0(/0) NaN% Map losses without both pistols 0(/0) NaN%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON mirage…

Second round win rate on mirage: 8(/9) (88.9%) – CT: 4(/4) (100.0%) – T: 4(/5) (80.0%)

Third round win rate on mirage: 5(/9) (55.6%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 3(/5) (60.0%)

Fourth round win rate on mirage: 5(/9) (55.6%) – CT: 3(/4) (75.0%) – T: 2(/5) (40.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON mirage…

Second round win rate on mirage: 0(/1) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

Third round win rate on mirage: 0(/1) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

Fourth round win rate on mirage: 0(/1) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/0) (NaN%)

mirage…

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 10(/21) 47.6% T bomb hold rate 5(/5) 100.0%

Average Rating R 1 :1.11

Winner Loser Score Map Date Event VOD Astralis Na`Vi 16:11 (8:7)(8:4) de_mirage March 03, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/8AlmMf0smo0?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=106 Astralis 16:7 (12:3)(4:4) de_mirage February 19, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/ht-IcH62B7s?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=268 mousesports 16:8 (9:6)(7:2) de_mirage February 07, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/Yej7vTgaPGM?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=979 Na`Vi 16:14 (9:6)(7:8) de_mirage January 27, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/VUSeavsM7c0?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1415 Astralis 16:3 (12:3)(4:0) de_mirage January 26, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/smLyrFUGT4M?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=40

Astralis are extremely good at pistols on mirage. They have lost only one pistol round in their 10 attempts. They are not very good at anti-ecos after winning the pistol round.

It’s interesting to note that mousesports beat Astralis on mirage convincingly with NiKo. NiKo did not have an extraordinary performance however.

FaZe – Mirage

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 8 rain 142 (+4) 0.97 (-0.03) -4 (-5) 1.02 (+0.04) 0.98 (-0.03) FaZe 2 8 allu 138 (0) 1.05 (+0.06) +6 (+8) 0.99 (+0.01) 1.05 (+0.05) FaZe 3 4 aizy 65 (-9) 0.92 (-0.22) -6 (-15) 0.97 (-0.09) 0.97 (-0.14) FaZe 4 8 karrigan 138 (-1) 1.01 (+0.01) +2 (+2) 0.96 (-0.04) 0.99 (-0.02) FaZe 5 8 kioShiMa 135 (-5) 1.01 (+0.01) +1 (+1) 0.95 (-0.05) 1.01 (+0.01) FaZe

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on mirage: 16



mirage

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 5(/8) 62.5% T Pistol Round Win Rate 4(/8) 50.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 9(/16) 56.3% Map wins with CT pistol 3(/5) 60.0% Map wins with T pistol 2(/4) 50.0% Map wins with both pistols 2(/3) 66.7% Map losses without CT pistol 2(/3) 66.7% Map losses without T pistol 2(/4) 50.0% Map losses without both pistols 1(/2) 50.0%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON mirage…

Second round win rate on mirage: 8(/9) (88.9%) – CT: 4(/5) (80.0%) – T: 4(/4) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on mirage: 9(/9) (100.0%) – CT: 5(/5) (100.0%) – T: 4(/4) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on mirage: 6(/8) (75.0%) – CT: 3(/4) (75.0%) – T: 3(/4) (75.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON mirage…

Second round win rate on mirage: 3(/7) (42.9%) – CT: 1(/3) (33.3%) – T: 2(/4) (50.0%)

Third round win rate on mirage: 2(/7) (28.6%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 2(/4) (50.0%)

Fourth round win rate on mirage: 3(/7) (42.9%) – CT: 1(/3) (33.3%) – T: 2(/4) (50.0%)

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 1(/8) 12.5% T bomb hold rate 21(/33) 63.6%

Average Rating R 1 :1.00

Winner Loser Score Map Date Event VOD FaZe 16:10 (6:9)(10:1) de_mirage March 04, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v126294146&t=2h13m49s Na`Vi 16:6 (13:2)(3:4) de_mirage February 18, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/79mT97hm2dM?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=812 mousesports 16:10 (7:8)(9:2) de_mirage February 17, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/SdhhBu4VeQU?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=819 FaZe Renegades 16:14 (11:4)(5:10) de_mirage February 16, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/h7oIXtusC0s?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=776 FaZe TSK 16:7 (12:3)(4:4) de_mirage January 28, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v117961933&t=0h38m16s TSK 15:15 (6:9)(9:6) de_mirage January 23, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/tXoC5ljb7HY?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1 FlipSid3 16:11 (12:3)(4:8) de_mirage January 09, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 Europe Closed Qualifier http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v113571832&t=5h39m13s FaZe 16:2 (13:2)(3:0) de_mirage January 09, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 Europe Closed Qualifier http://www.youtube.com/embed/OodGsD0FFTs?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=16

Faze is a very strong mirage team. They are above average on pistols, and they have never lost a first-gun round after winning pistol. They’re rarely eco’d after winning pistol.

It will be a challenge for Faze to win pistols against Astralis on mirage. Surely today they will be watching Astralis mirage demos to see why they’re so successful on mirage pistols.

Astralis – Nuke

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 9 dupreeh 174 (+20) 1.22 (-0.04) +31 (0) 1.25 (+0.15) 1.20 (+0.05) Astralis 2 9 device 170 (+14) 1.45 (+0.22) +53 (+24) 1.21 (+0.11) 1.25 (+0.12) Astralis 3 9 Kjaerbye 163 (+8) 1.38 (+0.16) +45 (+17) 1.16 (+0.04) 1.20 (+0.05) Astralis 4 9 Xyp9x 142 (-19) 1.18 (-0.08) +22 (-12) 1.03 (-0.13) 1.11 (-0.06) Astralis 5 9 gla1ve 138 (-26) 1.05 (-0.27) +6 (-33) 1.00 (-0.17) 1.02 (-0.17) Astralis

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on nuke: 18



nuke

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 4(/9) 44.4% T Pistol Round Win Rate 5(/9) 55.6% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 9(/18) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 3(/4) 75.0% Map wins with T pistol 4(/5) 80.0% Map wins with both pistols 2(/3) 66.7% Map losses without CT pistol 1(/5) 20.0% Map losses without T pistol 1(/4) 25.0% Map losses without both pistols 1(/3) 33.3%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON nuke…

Second round win rate on nuke: 7(/9) (77.8%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 5(/5) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 7(/9) (77.8%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 5(/5) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 6(/9) (66.7%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 4(/5) (80.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON nuke…

Second round win rate on nuke: 3(/9) (33.3%) – CT: 2(/5) (40.0%) – T: 1(/4) (25.0%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 3(/9) (33.3%) – CT: 2(/5) (40.0%) – T: 1(/4) (25.0%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 5(/8) (62.5%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 3(/4) (75.0%)

nuke…

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 7(/19) 36.8% T bomb hold rate 13(/20) 65.0%

Average Rating R 1 :1.16

Astralis has only lost against Virtus Pro on nuke. All players on Astralis are strong individually on this map (average rating is 1.16 which is exceptionally high). Pistols aren’t extraordinary, but when they do win pistol they tend to win the next 2 rounds (never lost the next 2 rounds as T). Not much to analyze here, simply a very strong team on nuke.

FaZe – Nuke

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 4 allu 103 (+15) 1.49 (+0.36) +34 (+24) 1.28 (+0.20) 1.27 (+0.20) FaZe 2 4 rain 104 (+16) 1.30 (+0.13) +24 (+11) 1.27 (+0.20) 1.24 (+0.16) FaZe 3 3 aizy 70 (-1) 1.25 (+0.00) +14 (0) 1.09 (-0.05) 1.12 (-0.02) FaZe 4 4 karrigan 79 (-16) 1.01 (-0.25) +1 (-19) 0.98 (-0.17) 0.96 (-0.19) FaZe 5 4 kioShiMa 77 (-18) 0.99 (-0.26) -1 (-20) 0.95 (-0.21) 0.95 (-0.21) FaZe

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on nuke: 8



nuke

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/4) 75.0% T Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/4) 75.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 6(/8) 75.0% Map wins with CT pistol 3(/3) 100.0% Map wins with T pistol 3(/3) 100.0% Map wins with both pistols 2(/2) 100.0% Map losses without CT pistol 0(/1) 0.0% Map losses without T pistol 0(/1) 0.0% Map losses without both pistols 0(/0) NaN%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON nuke…

Second round win rate on nuke: 3(/6) (50.0%) – CT: 2(/3) (66.7%) – T: 1(/3) (33.3%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 4(/6) (66.7%) – CT: 2(/3) (66.7%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 2(/6) (33.3%) – CT: 1(/3) (33.3%) – T: 1(/3) (33.3%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON nuke…

Second round win rate on nuke: 0(/2) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

Third round win rate on nuke: 0(/2) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

Fourth round win rate on nuke: 1(/2) (50.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 1(/1) (100.0%)

nuke…

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 5(/7) 71.4% T bomb hold rate 9(/12) 75.0%

Average Rating R 1 :1.11

Faze has never lost nuke in the last 2 months. They are extremely good on nuke pistols, which is impressive because they’ve played 3 teams on nuke with very strong aimers: NaVi, Liquid, EnVyUs.

Although nuke is Astralis’s favorite map, Faze will be difficult team to beat on nuke. Individually they are also very strong on nuke with a 1.11 average rating.

Karrigan has a long history of leading very strong CT sides on Nuke. But, you should realize that 4 of the 5 players of Astralis have a deep understanding of how he likes to play nuke.

Importantly, they have not yet played with NiKo on nuke which may be a significant factor if Astralis is outplaying them tactically.

Astralis – Overpass

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 6 Kjaerbye 146 (+19) 1.17 (+0.07) +21 (+10) 1.20 (+0.16) 1.18 (+0.12) Astralis 2 6 device 139 (+9) 1.23 (+0.15) +26 (+16) 1.16 (+0.11) 1.18 (+0.12) Astralis 3 6 Xyp9x 142 (+12) 1.35 (+0.29) +37 (+29) 1.10 (+0.03) 1.13 (+0.06) Astralis 4 6 dupreeh 127 (-6) 0.99 (-0.14) -1 (-17) 1.08 (+0.01) 1.07 (-0.02) Astralis 5 6 gla1ve 104 (-36) 0.85 (-0.34) -18 (-41) 0.82 (-0.31) 0.86 (-0.28) Astralis

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on overpass: 12

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 4(/6) 66.7% T Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/6) 50.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 7(/12) 58.3% Map wins with CT pistol 3(/4) 75.0% Map wins with T pistol 2(/3) 66.7% Map wins with both pistols 0(/1) 0.0% Map losses without CT pistol 0(/2) 0.0% Map losses without T pistol 0(/3) 0.0% Map losses without both pistols 0(/0) NaN%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON overpass…

Second round win rate on overpass: 5(/7) (71.4%) – CT: 2(/4) (50.0%) – T: 3(/3) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on overpass: 4(/7) (57.1%) – CT: 1(/4) (25.0%) – T: 3(/3) (100.0%)

Fourth round win rate on overpass: 3(/7) (42.9%) – CT: 1(/4) (25.0%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON overpass…

Second round win rate on overpass: 3(/5) (60.0%) – CT: 1(/2) (50.0%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

Third round win rate on overpass: 2(/5) (40.0%) – CT: 0(/2) (0.0%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

Fourth round win rate on overpass: 3(/5) (60.0%) – CT: 1(/2) (50.0%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

overpass…

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 2(/9) 22.2% T bomb hold rate 14(/21) 66.7%

Average Rating R 1 :1.08

Winner Loser Score Map Date Event VOD Astralis 15:15 (4:11)(11:4) de_overpass March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v125570074&t=2h32m22s Astralis LDLC 16:8 (8:7)(8:1) de_overpass February 23, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/4jYXd6r70K4?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=528 Astralis 16:9 (10:5)(6:4) de_overpass February 19, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/WFuRqK0stLA?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=196 Na`Vi 16:11 (9:6)(7:5) de_overpass February 07, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/apOMM9-iAqk?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1534 Astralis 16:14 (9:6)(7:8) de_overpass January 29, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/eyJ669JsqvA?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1414 Astralis Na`Vi 16:7 (12:3)(4:4) de_overpass January 27, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/VUSeavsM7c0?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1415

A very good overpass team. They’re good on CT pistols, but as CT’s they are easy to eco after winning the pistol. gla1ve has been abused on this map. If he’s able to put in a decent performance then Astralis should win this map easily.

They are not fantastic on T pistols but when they do win, they almost always convert it to a 3-0 lead.

FaZe – Overpass

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 6 kioShiMa 112 (+10) 1.09 (+0.13) +9 (+14) 1.05 (+0.08) 1.01 (+0.08) FaZe 2 6 karrigan 106 (+4) 0.97 (+0.03) -3 (+3) 1.02 (+0.06) 0.97 (+0.03) FaZe 3 6 allu 104 (-1) 1.01 (+0.05) +1 (+5) 0.97 (-0.01) 0.98 (+0.04) FaZe 4 6 rain 96 (-9) 0.83 (-0.16) -19 (-18) 0.91 (-0.09) 0.85 (-0.12) FaZe 5 3 aizy 45 (-5) 0.85 (-0.08) -8 (-4) 0.88 (-0.11) 0.84 (-0.11) FaZe

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on overpass: 12



overpass

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/6) 50.0% T Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/6) 50.0% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 6(/12) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 2(/3) 66.7% Map wins with T pistol 3(/3) 100.0% Map wins with both pistols 2(/2) 100.0% Map losses without CT pistol 2(/3) 66.7% Map losses without T pistol 3(/3) 100.0% Map losses without both pistols 2(/2) 100.0%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON overpass…

Second round win rate on overpass: 5(/6) (83.3%) – CT: 2(/3) (66.7%) – T: 3(/3) (100.0%)

Third round win rate on overpass: 4(/6) (66.7%) – CT: 2(/3) (66.7%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

Fourth round win rate on overpass: 3(/6) (50.0%) – CT: 2(/3) (66.7%) – T: 1(/3) (33.3%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON overpass…

Second round win rate on overpass: 1(/6) (16.7%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 1(/3) (33.3%)

Third round win rate on overpass: 1(/6) (16.7%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 1(/3) (33.3%)

Fourth round win rate on overpass: 2(/6) (33.3%) – CT: 0(/3) (0.0%) – T: 2(/3) (66.7%)

overpass…

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 6(/13) 46.2% T bomb hold rate 16(/19) 84.2%

Average Rating R 1 :0.93

Winner Loser Score Map Date Event VOD FaZe 16:6 (11:4)(5:2) de_overpass March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v125567105&t=2h37m5s FaZe 15:15 (5:10)(10:5) de_overpass February 08, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/P8WnxH2Pfpg?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=440 Kinguin 16:6 (12:3)(4:3) de_overpass February 07, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/vpTjEBG2cOw?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1118 TSK 16:5 (10:5)(6:0) de_overpass January 28, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v117961933&t=0h38m16s Gambit 16:14 (8:7)(8:7) de_overpass January 25, 2017 ELEAGUE Major 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/UpKwY6iocHw?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=36 FaZe 16:7 (8:7)(8:0) de_overpass January 09, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 Europe Closed Qualifier http://player.twitch.tv/?video=v113571832&t=4h34m36s

This data is not very relevant because most of it comes from when aizy was on this team. The only time Faze has played overpass with their current lineup is against Immortals where they dominated 16-6.

Astralis – Inferno

Rank # Maps Player Frags (+relative) KD (+relative) dKD (+relative) Frag Rating (+relative) ? Rating (+relative) Team 1 3 Xyp9x 90 (+17) 1.48 (+0.37) +29 (+22) 1.30 (+0.26) 1.40 (+0.32) Astralis 2 3 dupreeh 79 (+3) 1.20 (+0.01) +13 (+1) 1.16 (+0.08) 1.20 (+0.07) Astralis 3 3 device 77 (+2) 1.17 (-0.01) +11 (0) 1.06 (-0.03) 1.11 (-0.04) Astralis 4 3 Kjaerbye 65 (-14) 1.05 (-0.19) +3 (-12) 0.97 (-0.15) 1.03 (-0.15) Astralis 5 3 gla1ve 71 (-7) 1.06 (-0.16) +4 (-10) 0.96 (-0.16) 1.00 (-0.19) Astralis

Pistol Round Analysis

Number of pistol rounds played on inferno: 6

Situation Proportion Percent CT Pistol Round Win Rate 2(/3) 66.7% T Pistol Round Win Rate 1(/3) 33.3% Total Pistol Round Win Rate 3(/6) 50.0% Map wins with CT pistol 2(/2) 100.0% Map wins with T pistol 1(/1) 100.0% Map wins with both pistols 0(/0) NaN% Map losses without CT pistol 0(/1) 0.0% Map losses without T pistol 0(/2) 0.0% Map losses without both pistols 0(/0) NaN%

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS WON ON inferno…

Second round win rate on inferno: 2(/3) (66.7%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

Third round win rate on inferno: 2(/3) (66.7%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

Fourth round win rate on inferno: 2(/3) (66.7%) – CT: 2(/2) (100.0%) – T: 0(/1) (0.0%)

CRITICAL ROUNDS WHEN PISTOL IS LOST ON inferno…

Second round win rate on inferno: 0(/3) (0.0%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 0(/2) (0.0%)

Third round win rate on inferno: 1(/3) (33.3%) – CT: 0(/1) (0.0%) – T: 1(/2) (50.0%)

Fourth round win rate on inferno: 1(/3) (33.3%) – CT: 1(/1) (100.0%) – T: 0(/2) (0.0%)

inferno…

Situation Proportion Percent CT bomb retake rate 4(/11) 36.4% T bomb hold rate 2(/2) 100.0%

Average Rating R 1 :1.15

Winner Loser Score Map Date Event VOD Astralis fnatic 15:15 (7:8)(8:7) de_inferno March 01, 2017 IEM Katowice 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/WJN40lqBaYg?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=394 Astralis LDLC 15:15 (10:5)(5:10) de_inferno February 23, 2017 ESL Pro League Season 5 Europe http://www.youtube.com/embed/idhkUjWLQs8?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=386 Astralis 16:6 (12:3)(4:3) de_inferno February 19, 2017 DreamHack Masters Las Vegas 2017 http://www.youtube.com/embed/PtCJHX3xdno?vq=hd720&autoplay=1&start=1535

Every time Astralis has played inferno, it was because their opponents selected to play it. They have never lost, so they seem to have a natural cohesion with this map. Average pistols, average eco’s. Individually they are very strong with an average rating of 1.15. Nothing else to write about.

FaZe – Inferno

Faze has only played Inferno once in the last two months. It was against Immortals in the semi-final today. They simply out-skilled Immortals, beating them 16-9.

Overall Map Results…

Faze…

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate de_dust2 0/2 0% 37% 0% 50% de_inferno 1/1 100% 64% 100% 100% de_nuke 4/4 100% 56% 100% 75% de_mirage 4/8 50% 52% 57% 62% de_season 0/0 0% 0% 0% 0% de_train 8/11 72% 52% 50% 70% de_cache 1/1 100% 72% 100% 100% de_cbble 0/0 0% 0% 0% 0% de_overpass 3/6 50% 48% 33% 50% CT Rank Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT 1 de_cache 100% (1/1) 73% (11/15) 100% (1/1) 2 de_inferno 100% (1/1) 60% (9/15) 100% (1/1) 3 de_nuke 100% (4/4) 57% (32/56) 100% (2/2) 4 de_mirage 57% (4/7) 51% (46/90) 50% (1/2) 5 de_train 50% (5/10) 44% (53/119) 60% (3/5) 6 de_overpass 33% (2/6) 38% (28/73) 50% (2/4)

T

Rank Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T 1 de_cache 100% (1/1) 71% (5/7) 0% (0/0) 2 de_inferno 100% (1/1) 70% (7/10) 0% (0/0) 3 de_nuke 75% (3/4) 56% (31/55) 100% (2/2) 4 de_train 70% (7/10) 62% (72/116) 75% (3/4) 5 de_mirage 62% (5/8) 53% (60/112) 50% (3/6) 6 de_overpass 50% (3/6) 58% (44/75) 50% (1/2)

Astralis…

Map Map Win Proportion Map Win Rate Round Win Rate CT Half Win Rate T Half Win Rate de_dust2 1/2 50% 55% 100% 0% de_inferno 3/3 100% 56% 66% 66% de_nuke 7/9 77% 61% 66% 62% de_mirage 3/5 60% 56% 60% 75% de_season 0/0 0% 0% 0% 0% de_train 7/10 70% 51% 60% 60% de_cache 1/2 50% 46% 100% 0% de_cbble 0/0 0% 0% 0% 0% de_overpass 5/6 83% 56% 40% 83%

CT

Rank Map CT Half Win Rate CT Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting CT 1 de_dust2 100% (2/2) 65% (17/26) 0% (0/1) 2 de_cache 100% (2/2) 60% (17/28) 100% (1/1) 3 de_inferno 66% (2/3) 64% (29/45) 100% (3/3) 4 de_nuke 66% (6/9) 62% (62/100) 80% (4/5) 5 de_mirage 60% (3/5) 58% (44/75) 60% (3/5) 6 de_train 60% (6/10) 51% (47/91) 100% (3/3) 7 de_overpass 40% (2/5) 49% (34/69) 100% (1/1)

T

Rank Map T Half Win Rate T Round Win Rate Map Win Rate When Starting T 1 de_overpass 83% (5/6) 62% (56/90) 80% (4/5) 2 de_mirage 75% (3/4) 54% (26/48) 0% (0/0) 3 de_inferno 66% (2/3) 45% (17/37) 0% (0/0) 4 de_nuke 62% (5/8) 60% (65/107) 75% (3/4) 5 de_train 60% (6/10) 52% (64/122) 60% (3/5) 6 de_dust2 0% (0/2) 46% (14/30) 100% (1/1) 7 de_cache 0% (0/2) 33% (10/30) 0% (0/1)

Fun Facts…

Faze…

FaZe wins the map 42.86% (6/14) of the time when karrigan’s rating is equal to or below 1

FaZe wins the map 76.47% (13/17) of the time when karrigan’s rating is equal to or above 1

FaZe wins the map 100.00% (16/16) of the time when kioShiMa’s teammates’ average rating is equal to or above 1

When NiKo performs at least as well as his team, FaZe wins 100.00% (5/5) of their maps

FaZe wins the map 88.24% (15/17) of the time when kioShiMa’s rating is equal to or above 1

Best performer of past 2 months: NiKo (1.12 average rating)

Best opponent of past 2 months: fer (1.56! average rating)

Astralis…

Astralis wins the map 100.00% (27/27) of the time when gla1ve’s teammates’ average rating is equal to or above 1

Astralis wins the map 88.00% (22/25) of the time when device’s rating is equal to or above 1.1

Astralis wins the map 46.15% (6/13) of the time when device’s rating is equal to or below 1.1

Astralis wins the map 37.50% (6/16) of the time when Xyp9x’s rating is equal to or below 1

Best performer of past 2 months: device (1.23 average rating)

Best opponent of past 2 months: JW (1.34 average rating)

Prediction…

Because Faze is a new highly skilled team, there’s a risk that this match will be randomly decided. So if you bet, don’t go crazy. I suggest betting bitcoin on NitrogenEsports.eu because they allow you to bet map-by-map, even while the match is on-going (when the specific map starts, they close the betting line for that map). That allows you to make some really easy bets.

Astralis has been playing confidently lately regardless of their opponent. If Astralis gives Faze too much respect as Immortals did, they will put themselves at a huge disadvantage. They need to be pushing Faze when Faze is on eco’s, flanking them when they are setting up as T’s, doing random pushes as CT’s, etc. I believe they will do this based on their recent games against highly skilled teams.

Karrigan used to be the IGL of Astralis, and thus the players of Astralis understand his play-style well. I’m sure Karrigan has a good understanding of gla1ve but overall I think Astralis’s 1+ year with karrigan will be a significant factor.

I will do probabilities by map:

Train – 55/45 Astralis

Nuke – 65/35 Astralis

Mirage – 50/50

Overpass – 70/30 Astralis

Inferno – 60/40 Astralis