Duncs11 set to lead Classical Liberal-Tory government with Social Democrat and Liberal Democrat support

The government’s coalition agreement includes a commitment not to reduce the highest rate of income tax below that of England, a plan to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 12, and a new order on the Perth-Edinburgh railway.

Duncs11 will almost certainly be the next First Minister of Scotland.

Duncs11 looks set to be the next First Minister of Scotland after the Classical Liberals, Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Social Democrats and Scottish Liberal Democrats all approved a deal that would see a Classical Liberal-Tory government, with confidence and supply from the others. All in all, this government will have 8 seats, with 2 additional seats through their deal with Holyrood’s two smallest parties. This means Mr 11 is almost certain to win the 10 votes necessary to be elected First Minister, making him the first non-Green First Minister since the Scottish Parliament was rebooted in July 2017.

This news follows Thursday’s Scottish Parliament elections which saw the Green Party narrowly win the most seats and votes with 6 MSPs and 26.92% and 26.40% of the constituency and list vote respectively. Duncs11’s Classical Liberals came second with 5 seats and 19.97% of the constituency vote and 24.64% of the regional vote. The Scottish Green government had controlled 8 seats, with the 4 seat Labour providing confidence and supply. Labour were the biggest losers from the election, dropping 2 seats, 12.74% of their constituency votes, and 8.61% of their list vote. The SDP entered the Scottish Parliament with their first ever elected representative, surging to over 9% and 7% of constituency and list votes while Liberal Democrats re-entered Holyrood, nearly doubling their votes, having been wiped out at the last election in November. The election was dominated by criticisms of the government’s performance and a feeling of weariness by Scottish voters at what has been called a “toxic political culture” North of the border.

According to the coalition agreement, published this evening, and which the Guardian acquired an original pre-release copy of, the new government will be headed by Duncs who becomes First Minister, presiding over a Deputy First Minister, 5 Cabinet Secretaries, and 7 Ministers. Scottish Conservative Leader _Paul_Rand_ is to be the new Deputy First Minister, while the Classical Liberals take the Finance, Education and Public Services, Culture and and Equal Opportunities Cabinet Secretary posts. In addition to those positions, the Classical Liberals will also appoint the Ministers for Education, Transport, and Mental Health. The Tories will choose the new Infrastructure and Environment, and Healthcare Cabinet Secretaries, with the Taxation, Justice, Environment, and Communities and Sport Ministers also being Tories. The new cabinet sees one fewer cabinet secretary and one more minister than the last Green cabinet had.

The agreement sets out a strict code of conduct for the cabinet, after members of the Green government were criticised over their performance and actions over the last few months, which saw many question sessions missed. The code states that “Cabinet Secretaries and Ministers are expected to attend their session of Portfolio Questions, and answer relevant questions at General Questions.” It also requires that the Scottish Ministerial Code be kept to and that Cabinet Secretaries and Ministers should write legislation. It also states that “the Programme for Government should be restored as a Contract between the government and parliament as a proxy of the people, and this should be made very clear in the foreword”. The Deputy First Minister has additional roles, including to present an accountability bill, as set out in the Scottish Tory manifesto, to establish an Independent Body that will ensure that lapses in the ministerial code are dealt with properly, and to ensure government transparency, with the people, press and parliament.

It is also stated that it has been agreed that both parties should be able to submit private members and party bills that don’t clash with government policy, that the government’s confidence and supply backers should vote for a Classical Liberal-Conservative nominee for First Minister, and that all four parties should work closely together.

On policy, the agreement specifies that the highest rate of income tax shall not fall below that of England, sets out plans to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 12, and promises a new order to construct the Perth-Edinburgh railway after the Green government’s legislation was heavily criticised. The government is also committed to working with the Royal Commission on Devolution, which was established after the Welfare Devolution referendum, and introducing a long discussed Land Value Tax, replacing council tax. The agreement also sets out an intention to reduce the tax burden of Scots but offers few details on how this might look, other than ensuring that “any tax cuts primarily benefit the ordinary person.” The new government will also implement a service to provide free laundry cleaning services to the homeless.

The government’s education policy will include an outright opposition to the last government’s “New Start Scotland” policy, and instead offers to work with parties across the Parliament to develop a new curriculum, and they will also conduct a review of Personal and Social Education, which will include LGBT+ inclusive education. The new government will introduce a Pupil Premium like that in England and Wales which will be funded using money currently allocated to the Education Maintenance Allowance. The government is going to introduce free period products in schools, as an attempt to end period poverty among children.

The coalition will mandate the wearing of body cameras by police, construct a new, modern prison in Scotland to address overcrowding and outdated facilities, and introduce a Rehabilitation of Offenders Bill to give prisoners the opportunity to study for qualifications. They will also introduce legislation that requires the publishing of an annual infrastructure strategy and will publish their first beforehand, to expand access to high speed internet and public transport. There will also be retraining schemes for workers impacted by the loss of North Sea oil and a Climate change bill, containing binding targets on carbon neutrality.

Mr 11’s government will also work with the British government to create an “ExploreBritain” schemes to give young people the chance to see the rest of the UK and will propose a Legislative Consent Motion for the Wild Animals in Circuses Bill, allowing it to be extended from Scotland. The Classical Liberals and Tories have agreed to stop funding for the Independent Journalism Fund, though it seems that the Liberal Democrats and Social Democrats have withheld support for this. The new government will also support a joint-UK wide bid for the 2030 World Cup.

The Green government’s flagship hospital nationalisation policy also looks doomed tonight, as the new government promises to lift the prohibition on the operation of private hospitals, and will run a “buyback” scheme allowing the previous owners to take back their property and assets. Any private hospitals that are not brought back will be offered to local NHS trusts at 80% of their market values, and floated on the open market if they are still not brought. Other health policies including a new Mental Health Care Bill written by the Scottish Social Democrats, a declaration of parity between mental and physical health, a long term funding plan for the NHS, and access to PrEP medication.

Analysis: a suitably radical programme?

Much of the reaction on twitter to the publishing of this agreement saw it branded “boring”. Some have suggested that it is all masking more sinister policies to be unveiled during the term, when the political headwind is in the new government’s favour. The Classical Liberal campaign spent much of its time bashing so much of what the Greens have done for the last nearly-two years, but the question is now whether, poised to enter government for the first time, they look set to just repeal a few things they dislike and do little else new or ambitious.

Certainly with a very hung Parliament and four parties involved in this new government in some way, it was inevitable that a deal full of policies that could actually command majority would have to be broadly appealing. There is a debate to be had about whether anything can be inherently ambitious under those circumstances. But, as the old adage goes, too many cooks spoil the broth, and that may be no more true than in politics, where majority support is required for anything to happen, and where there is no easy majority that broth must be contributed to by more and more chefs with very different palettes to make it more to their taste, to the point that it becomes bland and uninteresting, but generally acceptable.

There is a case to be made on both sides. As the Scottish Liberal Democrat Leader, Weebru_m, told the Guardian this evening, “looking at the programme, I disagree… that it is unambitious. We’re looking to end period poverty, introduce LGBTI+ inclusive education, really get down to tackling sectarianism in our communities – and that’s just talking about the Liberal Democrat side of this negotiation! Elsewhere we’ve seen concessions delivered by the Social Democrats such as making sure the top rate of income tax will not be less than the English rate, so Scotland will have a more progressive taxation system than the rest of the UK. This will be an interesting term in Scotland, with a lot of negotiation, compromise and consensus and I look forward to representing my party in the Scottish Parliament.”

The Liberal Democrats seem content that it is ambitious, without being overly partisan. That being said, though, Mr m actually seems to concede that, while ambitious, it can also be seen as boring. “I think it’s about time we had a little bit of boring in Scottish politics. Of course I have the unique position where I can talk about serving, and indeed leading a Scottish Green Government in Holyrood. It was an absolute pleasure and something I still look back on fondly. But my party has been very clear with me, it’s time for the Greens and Labour to take a term in opposition – detoxify from last term’s controversies and come back all guns blazing.” His answer on that charge is unclear, so make of it what you will.

The Classical Liberal Leader told the Guardian tonight that “I feel that the agreement we have reached is one which provides change, whilst acknowledging the very split nature of the Parliament. This is an agreement which finally implements the Cities of Perth and Edinburgh Railway, that commits to cutting taxes, and which commits to fixing the issues facing hard working people. I’m very proud of our agreement.

“The policies in our platform are all sensible, moderate proposals, which are designed to get the support of Parliament. If “exciting” policies include seizing hospitals without knowing the costs, proposing a railway plan which breaks the laws of physics, and repeatedly using sectarian language, then I think it’s for the best that these policies are a change from the past.”

And yet, perhaps elements of it aren’t as big or radical as you might expect. The new government can happily tout tax cuts, but have been bound to a higher rate no lower than that of England by the Social Democrats or Liberal Democrats. Radically liberal policies on justice from the Classical Liberal manifesto are also gone, such as a 21 year maximum sentence, only renewable in 5 year intervals if the offender poses a continued risk and the proposed repeal of the Prohibition of Conversion Therapy Act. The new government’s transport policy is also watered down, limited to broadly popular infrastructure projects and proposals.

The current First Minister, Alajv3, said tonight that “the agreement has a lot of fancy words and promises that we’ve heard a lot of times before from the Classical Liberals, the question is if they’ll be able to live up to it or not. I have read the agreement and the things I reacted hardest against were parts found in the education and healthcare sections. Firstly it’s sad to see that the potential new government is going to vote down such an ambitious education reform and secondly it’s also sad to see that they don’t respect the Independent Hospitals (Scotland) Act by chosing to repeal it. While disagreements may exist we had a mandate from the people to push for such an act and to see this is just sad really. Especially since the Scottish Liberal Democrats seems to be aboard of that idea. The same Scottish Liberal Democrats who have a current party leader who were First Minister in the Government that pushed for it.”

But, looking back at previous programmes for government, the question arises as to whether calling this one “boring” is particularly fair. The last few published by the Green government have been fairly vague and contain policies that seem inoffensive to a lot of people. Most notably in the last one of these documents was “we will introduce legislation to make sure all our Scottish Universities have free emergency accommodation for students who are made homeless or flee their homes during their studies,” “Increase funding for technology in the classroom, with a focus on rural communities where isolated schools may not have as technologically sophisticated schools as in the major cities,” “Direct the Enterprise Agencies to focus on building a scale-up programme for start-up companies. And we will streamline the advice available to business to ensure resources are effectively deployed to support start-up and scale-up ventures,” and “as a part of the budget, we will give more funding to health services in prisons, in cooperation the Cabinet Secretary of the Interior.”

Despite all of these broadly agreeable, perhaps “boring” policies, you cannot reasonably say that the Greens were unambitious or bland in government. You can say a lot of negative things about the Greens in government but it would be unfair to say that they’ve not done a lot of big, very controversial things. Is the nature of these things just that they lend themselves to being lacking in anything “exciting”? Or is it all a matter of perspective – that the policies set out in this deal are exciting to those who are passionate about it, and dull to those who are not? That’s something that would require academic research dedicated to it, but there is no objective reason to see this government as any less ambitious than any predecessors on the basis of this deal.