EPA Central Europe’s Grexit fears Countries in the EU but not in the eurozone worry the outcome of the Greek referendum will leave them isolated in a two-speed Europe.

WARSAW — The eurozone is waiting anxiously for the outcome of Sunday's referendum in Greece and what it means for the future of the common currency, but there is also rising worry in the EU countries of central Europe that don't yet use the euro.

The reason is that if Greece leaves the eurozone, the 18 countries remaining in the single currency are expected to make a push towards deeper integration in a show of solidarity and commitment to the euro.

But while that move would bring eurozone members closer together, it would pull them away from countries outside the eurozone, especially those in Central Europe, several of whom are farther than ever from joining the common currency. Although all made a commitment to eventually join the euro when they became EU members, there is a reluctance to take the plunge.

In Poland, the winner of that country’s recent presidential election, Andrzej Duda, has said he opposes joining the euro until Polish wages reach Western European levels. That's at least a generation away: Poland’s average monthly salary is currently about a third of Germany’s. The incumbent, Bronisław Komorowski, had taken a more pro-euro stance, saying Poland should join the euro “when it is ready.”

Duda’s party, the opposition Law and Justice, leads in the polls ahead of autumn parliamentary elections and is using decidedly anti-euro rhetoric. Beata Szydło, Law and Justice’s candidate for prime minister, has said it was “fortunate” that Poland did not enter the eurozone in 2012, as former Prime Minister Donald Tusk had called for in 2008.

It is obvious that today enthusiasm for the common currency is lower, but that is a result of the situation in the eurozone.

“It is obvious that today enthusiasm for the common currency is lower, but that is a result of the situation in the eurozone,” Tusk told POLITICO. “In Poland there is almost a complete political consensus that Poland will join the eurozone but only after the stabilization of the situation in the zone and when Poland meets the criteria, which it does not yet.”

Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has a complicated relationship with the EU, and his government’s policy has been to assure Hungarians that the country will stick with its own currency, the forint, for the long-term. The crisis in Greece has only served to vindicate that move.

Hungary is not in any mood to accept deeper integration

“Hungary is not in any mood to accept deeper integration,” said Sebastian Płóciennik, a European Union analyst at the Polish Institute for International Affairs. “There is no discussion about joining the eurozone quickly.”

The Czech Republic has not set a time for joining the euro, although 2020 is mentioned as a possible date. The public appetite for adopting the euro is low. An April Eurobarometer poll found 70 percent of Czechs were against joining (53 per cent of Poles were also opposed).

In June, a report drawn up by the so-called “five presidents” group presented a plan to strengthen the eurozone that included the appointment of a finance minister for the currency and a banking union. The plan is widely considered a model for the direction eurozone countries could take if they move toward closer integration.

Worries over a two-speed European Union

These countries would immediately be caught outside a more integrated eurozone and presumably would be left out of some of the most important decision making processes, effectively creating two degrees of EU membership.

So far, that concept has been anathema to Central Europeans. However, in the event of a Grexit, “the concept of a two-speed Europe will no longer be a taboo,” said Adriano Bosoni, a Europe analyst at geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor.

For Poland, which has long attempted to increase its role in Europe, that development would be especially unwelcome. It sees the euro in as much political as economic terms, with the feeling that at a time of growing threats from Russia, it makes sense to be included in every western club.

“Not only in economic but also in political terms, Poland’s place is in the heart of Europe,” Tusk said.

If the eurozone becomes strong again, then we think joining it will be beneficial for Poland.

Polish Finance Minister Mateusz Szczurek has recently voiced support for Poland to join the euro. While being careful not to set any particular date, he has said that the country would join the common currency “sooner or later” and that adopting the euro would be the “responsible” decision for Poland.

“Our strategy is long-term,” said Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska of the Polish Finance Ministry’s macroeconomic policy department. “If the eurozone becomes strong again, then we think joining it will be beneficial for Poland.”

Analysts say the move is a signal from Warsaw that it doesn’t want to be left out of the EU’s core, but with a Euroskeptic party leading the polls, the country looks more likely to drift to the periphery.

To a degree, the divide between eurozone ins and outs already exists. In discussions over how to address the Greek crisis, Central Europe has been left out of the loop. Although they took part in talks on creating the EU's banking union, CEE countries are not members and worry about the impact of having a eurozone regulator on banking systems largely owned by investors from western Europe. A further integration of the eurozone that didn’t include non-euro Central European countries would formalize the division.

“There already is a two-track system in the EU,” said Chris Hartwell, president of the Center for Social and Economic Research, a Warsaw-based think tank. “A lot of the changes that are being mooted in terms of greater economic union are really being decided by the eurozone countries.”

Insulated economies

The financial effects of Greece leaving the euro on Central Europe are hard to predict, but most economists are confident that the region will be relatively insulated from any direct impact. “There are hardly any routes though which [Central Europe] could be hit in the case of Grexit,” said economists at Erste Group in a recent report.

However, there are plenty of indirect links because the eurozone absorbs a huge chunk of the region’s exports. Eurozone banks also have a significant presence in the region, and any decision they make to hold back funding to their Central European branches could lead to a credit crunch.

“If ‘Grexit’ led to financial stress and weaker growth in the broader eurozone, most of Central and South Eastern Europe would be hard hit,” said William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist for Capital Economics in an analysis note.

Currencies in the region have already depreciated significantly as a result of the uncertainty: both the Polish złoty and the Hungarian forint have lost around 2 percent to the euro over the past month.

Matthew Kaminski contributed to this article