Given the one-and-done culture in college basketball, rating teams in the preseason is one of the most difficult exercises of any sport. Preseason polls tend to overvalue programs’ reputations, and the historically successful programs often end up on top. With the proper inputs, however, it’s possible to create a predictive rating system that can objectively identify which teams will be strongest for the coming season.

With that in mind, ESPN Stats & Information has created a preseason version of its Basketball Power Index, or BPI, for the 2016-17 season. This automated set of rankings is designed to predict how strong each team will be going forward and then use that information to predict single-game and season outcomes.

Preseason BPI methodology

When discussing which college basketball teams will be best next season, you are likely to hear about Duke’s coach, Kentucky’s recruiting and Villanova’s returning talent. Not coincidentally, these are all important factors when projecting a team’s performance for the coming season.

Preseason BPI has four main inputs: percentage of roster returning (including transfers), past performance of those returning players, composite recruiting rankings (from 247 Sports) and coaches’ past performance. All of these inputs are adjusted for competition faced and, when applicable, pace. For a complete description read our explainer here or scroll to the bottom.

These four factors interact to produce a team’s predicted offensive and defensive rating for the coming season. Those ratings are then combined to form preseason BPI, which represents a team’s projected point differential (per 70 possessions) against an average Division I team on a neutral court (all else equal).

Although these ratings are not perfect, they have been accurate when predicting team strength. Seven of the last nine NCAA champions have ranked in the top six in preseason BPI, with the 2011 and 2014 Connecticut championships representing the outliers.

Let’s run through the 1-through-351 rankings:

Rank Team Conference BPI

Off. BPI

Off. Rank BPI

Def. BPI

Def. Rank BPI 1 Duke ACC 14.2 1 3.7 21 18.0 2 Villanova Big East 9.5 2 5.9 3 15.4 3 Kansas Big 12 7.5 5 4.5 11 12.1 4 North Carolina ACC 7.0 7 4.7 6 11.8 5 Kentucky SEC 8.5 3 2.4 57 10.8

The Duke Blue Devils sit atop preseason BPI with by far the highest average offensive projection in the country. Led by AP Preseason All-American Grayson Allen and a superb recruiting class, the Blue Devils should have a perfect mix of experience and young talent this season. With four five-star recruits (Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson and Marques Bolden) and our system’s highest-rated group of returning offensive players in the country, a deeper or stronger team heading into the 2016-17 season won’t be found.

Villanova ranks right behind Duke with a projected top-three offense and defense. The Wildcats will have to replace two of their most important players -– Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu -– but the rest of the roster is intact with Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson all back. The Wildcats return 87 percent of available minutes (including transfer Eric Paschall), and those returning players are among the most efficient in the country.

Rank Team Conference BPI

Off. BPI

Off. Rank BPI

Def. BPI

Def. Rank BPI 6 Oregon Pac-12 5.9 11 4.3 16 10.2 7 Purdue Big Ten 5.9 12 4.3 18 10.2 8 Louisville ACC 4.0 30 6.1 2 10.1 9 West Virginia Big 12 3.6 34 6.3 1 9.9 10 NC State ACC 8.2 4 1.7 83 9.9 11 Syracuse ACC 5.2 16 4.3 17 9.4 12 Ohio State Big Ten 4.4 23 4.5 13 8.9 13 Virginia ACC 3.4 35 5.5 4 8.9 14 UCLA Pac-12 6.6 8 2.0 71 8.6 15 Arizona Pac-12 6.4 9 2.2 67 8.6

Oregon surprised many by winning the Pac-12 and claiming a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, but the Ducks aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this year. Despite losing two of their top five scorers, the Ducks return nearly everyone else to a team that only got stronger as the season progressed. Assuming Dillon Brooks is healthy, Oregon should be even better than last season.

Two teams that might sneak up on some are NC State and Ohio State. Both teams are unranked in The Associated Press poll but rank in the top 12 of preseason BPI. NC State added two five-star recruits, point guard Dennis Smith Jr. and center Omer Yurtseven, and returns a bunch of talented big men such as Malik-Abdul Abu and BeeJay Anya. Though both five-star recruits have obstacles to overcome -– Smith Jr. is coming back from a torn ACL and Yurtseven is suspended for the first nine games -– they should have an impact later on. Like NC State, the Buckeyes return some efficient big men, but their success under Thad Matta, who has a top-five adjusted net efficiency rating among coaches since 2007-08, is driving their BPI rating.

Rank Team Conference BPI

Off. BPI

Off. Rank BPI

Def. BPI

Def. Rank BPI 16 Michigan Big Ten 5.6 14 2.9 39 8.4 17 Xavier Big East 4.7 19 3.5 27 8.1 18 Gonzaga WCC 4.6 20 3.5 28 8.1 19 Indiana Big Ten 5.3 15 2.8 41 8.1 20 Michigan State Big Ten 5.0 18 3.0 35 8.1 21 Georgetown Big East 4.1 25 3.5 26 7.6 22 Saint Mary's WCC 6.3 10 1.2 102 7.6 23 Notre Dame ACC 7.1 6 0.3 161 7.3 24 Cincinnati American 3.0 46 4.3 19 7.3 25 Dayton A-10 2.5 55 4.7 8 7.2

The Big Ten might be the most crowded conference in the country with its top six teams separated by 3.2 points on a neutral court. BPI favors Purdue (45 percent chance to win a share of the conference title) with the duo of Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan clogging the middle, but there are a number of teams that could challenge for the title. Three of those teams are ranked between 16th and 20th in BPI.

The honor of being the top projected mid-major team belongs to Gonzaga. Despite losing All-Americans Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, the Bulldogs should not miss a beat with the addition of transfers Nigel Williams-Goss (from Washington), Jordan Mathews (from Cal) and Johnathan Williams III (from Missouri). Saint Mary’s returns nearly everyone from a team that finished in the top 40 in BPI last season, so the Gaels should challenge Gonzaga for the WCC title.

Rank Team Conference BPI

Off. BPI

Off. Rank BPI

Def. BPI

Def. Rank BPI 26 Clemson ACC 3.2 44 4.0 20 7.2 27 Iowa State Big 12 4.6 21 2.6 48 7.2 28 Florida SEC 2.4 60 4.7 7 7.1 29 Creighton Big East 4.5 22 2.6 50 7.0 30 Wisconsin Big Ten 4.0 29 2.9 37 7.0 31 Texas Big 12 3.8 33 3.1 33 7.0 32 VCU A-10 2.4 59 4.5 10 6.9 33 California Pac-12 4.1 27 2.7 45 6.7 34 Seton Hall Big East 1.7 83 4.9 5 6.6 35 Butler Big East 3.3 40 3.3 30 6.6 36 Virginia Tech ACC 4.1 28 2.5 53 6.5 37 Pittsburgh ACC 4.4 24 2.1 70 6.5 38 Baylor Big 12 4.0 31 2.6 51 6.5 39 Davidson A-10 5.8 13 0.6 142 6.4 40 Princeton Ivy League 3.8 32 2.2 66 6.0 41 Wichita State MVC 1.3 97 4.7 9 6.0 42 Illinois Big Ten 2.9 48 3.1 34 6.0 43 Connecticut American 2.3 62 3.7 24 6.0 44 Rhode Island A-10 1.5 88 4.4 14 5.9 45 Kansas State Big 12 1.4 92 4.4 15 5.8 46 San Diego State MW 1.3 99 4.5 12 5.8 47 Vanderbilt SEC 3.3 39 2.4 55 5.7 48 Stanford Pac-12 1.8 82 3.6 25 5.4 49 Oklahoma State Big 12 3.2 41 2.1 69 5.4 50 Marquette Big East 2.6 53 2.7 44 5.3

This section is filled with mid-majors that could make some noise come March. The A-10 race should be interesting with Dayton (25th), VCU (32nd), Davidson (39th) and Rhode Island (44th) in the top 50. Princeton (40th) returns just about everyone and should warrant attention in the Ivy League, while Wichita State should not take too much of a step back (despite losing Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet) as Gregg Marshall is among the most impactful coaches in the nation.

Rank Team Conference BPI

Off. BPI

Off. Rank BPI

Def. BPI

Def. Rank BPI 51 Colorado Pac-12 1.92 75 3.15 32 5.06 52 Alabama SEC 1.30 98 3.73 22 5.04 53 Arkansas SEC 2.28 65 2.75 43 5.03 54 Florida State ACC 1.76 81 3.16 31 4.92 55 Oklahoma Big 12 1.38 93 3.44 29 4.82 56 Southern Methodist American 2.14 69 2.61 47 4.74 57 TCU Big 12 1.93 74 2.77 42 4.70 58 Belmont OVC 5.12 17 -0.46 201 4.66 59 Texas Tech Big 12 3.17 43 1.41 95 4.59 60 NC-Wilmington CAA 2.36 61 2.22 63 4.58 61 Brigham Young WCC 2.44 57 1.93 77 4.37 62 Miami (FL) ACC 1.99 73 2.36 58 4.34 63 UCF American 2.75 50 1.54 89 4.29 64 Auburn SEC 3.01 45 1.26 100 4.28 65 Maryland Big Ten 2.31 63 1.87 78 4.18 66 Wake Forest ACC 3.21 42 0.94 120 4.15 67 Georgia SEC 1.11 107 2.96 36 4.06 68 Northern Iowa MVC 2.29 64 1.76 81 4.05 69 Northwestern Big Ten 1.91 76 2.13 68 4.04 70 Providence Big East 1.18 101 2.84 40 4.02 71 Washington Pac-12 2.18 68 1.59 86 3.77 72 Ole Miss SEC 2.11 71 1.54 91 3.64 73 Houston American 2.53 54 1.11 107 3.64 74 Minnesota Big Ten 1.22 100 2.38 56 3.61 75 Nevada MW 1.55 87 2.00 72 3.56 76 Vermont America East 2.26 66 1.30 98 3.55 77 Toledo MAC 3.31 38 0.12 172 3.43 78 New Mexico MW 2.21 67 1.09 109 3.31 79 Texas-Arlington Sun Belt 0.81 121 2.49 52 3.30 80 Oakland Horizon 3.31 37 -0.17 182 3.14 81 Iowa Big Ten 0.52 134 2.56 49 3.08 82 South Carolina SEC 0.63 126 2.33 59 2.96 83 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2.03 72 0.82 127 2.86 84 Eastern Michigan MAC 0.52 133 2.24 62 2.77 85 Fresno State MW 1.17 102 1.59 87 2.76 86 Boise State MW 1.68 84 1.07 112 2.74 87 Richmond A-10 1.81 78 0.90 122 2.71 88 Charleston CAA -1.04 218 3.73 23 2.69 89 Green Bay Horizon 1.64 85 0.99 117 2.62 90 Illinois State MVC -0.28 180 2.89 38 2.60 91 Western Kentucky C-USA 2.98 47 -0.39 195 2.59 92 USC Pac-12 0.99 112 1.58 88 2.56 93 Central Michigan MAC 4.09 26 -1.53 253 2.56 94 Iona MAAC 2.57 52 -0.05 177 2.52 95 Texas A&M SEC 0.42 139 2.00 73 2.42 96 Monmouth MAAC -0.10 168 2.44 54 2.34 97 Arizona State Pac-12 0.93 114 1.40 96 2.33 98 Chattanooga Southern 0.57 130 1.68 84 2.25 99 Ohio MAC 3.43 36 -1.19 236 2.25 100 Penn State Big Ten -0.04 165 2.20 65 2.15

Looking for a team that could take a step forward? Minnesota finished 8-23 last season, but Richard Pitino’s squad returns nearly everyone and added the 32nd-ranked recruit in the ESPN 300, small forward Amir Coffey. The Golden Gophers likely aren’t going to win the Big Ten, but they have a good chance to at least double their win total from last season.

On the flip side, BPI expects Texas A&M and Oklahoma, who met in the Sweet 16 as top-three seeds last season, to take a step back. Both teams have huge holes to fill and neither has spectacular recruiting classes or returning players to fill those lost minutes. Similarly, Maryland is much lower in BPI (65th) than in the AP poll (25th) after losing four of its top five scorers from last season. Although its top scorer, Melo Trimble, returns, he was not particularly efficient last season.

Rank Team Conference BPI

Off. BPI

Off. Rank BPI

Def. BPI

Def. Rank BPI 101 Siena MAAC 1.6 86 0.6 143 2.1 102 Harvard Ivy League -0.1 170 2.2 64 2.1 103 Marshall C-USA 2.4 58 -0.4 191 2.0 104 Akron MAC 0.2 152 1.8 79 2.0 105 La Salle A-10 0.0 159 1.8 80 1.8 106 Temple American 0.6 131 1.2 103 1.8 107 North Dakota State Summit 0.6 127 1.2 106 1.8 108 Utah Pac-12 0.7 124 1.1 110 1.8 109 Tennessee SEC 1.0 111 0.8 132 1.8 110 Florida Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 0.9 118 0.8 129 1.7 111 William & Mary CAA 2.5 56 -0.8 214 1.7 112 Santa Clara WCC 2.7 51 -1.0 228 1.7 113 Long Beach State Big West 0.9 116 0.7 135 1.6 114 Montana Big Sky 0.8 120 0.7 133 1.6 115 Weber State Big Sky 1.2 104 0.4 148 1.5 116 Cal State Bakersfield WAC -0.2 174 1.7 82 1.5 117 Middle Tennessee C-USA -1.1 226 2.6 46 1.5 118 East Carolina American 1.4 94 0.1 173 1.5 119 Nebraska Big Ten -0.8 201 2.2 61 1.5 120 UAB C-USA 1.4 91 0.0 174 1.5 121 Southern Illinois MVC 0.1 158 1.3 97 1.4 122 UNC-Asheville Big South 0.6 128 0.8 131 1.4 123 Hofstra CAA 1.1 108 0.3 156 1.4 124 East Tennessee State Southern 1.8 80 -0.4 200 1.3 125 Sam Houston State Southland 0.3 143 1.0 115 1.3 126 Mississippi State SEC -0.2 177 1.5 93 1.2 127 St. Bonaventure A-10 1.1 109 0.2 169 1.2 128 Winthrop Big South 2.1 70 -0.9 223 1.2 129 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 0.2 155 1.0 119 1.1 130 LSU SEC 0.5 136 0.6 137 1.1 131 Wofford Southern 1.1 110 0.0 176 1.0 132 IPFW Summit 1.9 77 -0.8 215 1.0 133 Fordham A-10 0.2 148 0.8 130 1.0 134 Old Dominion C-USA -1.0 213 2.0 75 1.0 135 Saint Louis A-10 1.5 90 -0.6 207 0.9 136 Ball State MAC 1.4 95 -0.6 204 0.8 137 Missouri State MVC 0.9 117 -0.1 180 0.8 138 James Madison CAA 0.4 138 0.4 151 0.8 139 Lehigh Patriot 0.2 153 0.6 138 0.8 140 Texas Southern SWAC 1.5 89 -0.9 218 0.7 141 Valparaiso Horizon 0.4 141 0.2 166 0.6 142 Tulsa American 0.4 137 0.2 170 0.6 143 Rider MAAC 0.2 146 0.4 150 0.6 144 Air Force MW 1.2 103 -0.6 203 0.6 145 Northwestern State Southland 2.7 49 -2.2 285 0.6 146 Boston University Patriot 0.9 113 -0.4 189 0.6 147 Massachusetts A-10 0.0 161 0.6 139 0.6 148 Buffalo MAC 0.4 142 0.1 171 0.5 149 Georgia Tech ACC -0.4 184 0.9 123 0.5 150 New Mexico State WAC -1.5 248 1.9 76 0.4 151 Boston College ACC -0.8 203 1.1 108 0.3 152 Pennsylvania Ivy League 1.1 105 -0.9 219 0.3 153 Grand Canyon WAC 0.6 132 -0.3 187 0.3 154 Louisiana Tech C-USA -0.8 202 1.0 114 0.2 155 Northern Illinois MAC -1.8 261 2.0 74 0.2 156 Oregon State Pac-12 -0.6 191 0.8 125 0.2 157 Georgia State Sun Belt -0.7 192 0.9 124 0.2 158 Fairfield MAAC -0.1 169 0.3 157 0.2 159 Cleveland State Horizon -1.0 219 1.2 104 0.2 160 Saint Joseph's A-10 -1.0 221 1.2 105 0.1 161 Holy Cross Patriot 0.3 145 -0.1 179 0.1 162 UNLV MW -1.0 215 1.0 113 0.0 163 George Washington A-10 -0.7 193 0.7 136 0.0 164 UTEP C-USA -1.5 241 1.4 94 0.0 165 North Carolina Central MEAC -1.0 210 0.9 121 -0.1 166 Murray State OVC 0.8 122 -0.9 222 -0.1 167 DePaul Big East 0.3 144 -0.4 198 -0.2 168 Elon CAA 0.2 151 -0.4 192 -0.2 169 Charlotte C-USA 1.3 96 -1.6 259 -0.3 170 Nebraska Omaha Summit 0.9 115 -1.2 237 -0.3 171 Mercer Southern 0.0 162 -0.3 185 -0.3 172 St. Peter's MAAC -2.0 272 1.6 85 -0.4 173 Pepperdine WCC -1.0 211 0.6 140 -0.4 174 Loyola (IL) MVC -1.0 209 0.5 145 -0.4 175 Indiana State MVC -0.4 183 -0.1 178 -0.5 176 IUPUI Summit -1.4 237 0.8 126 -0.6 177 Yale Ivy League -1.6 249 1.0 116 -0.6 178 Manhattan MAAC -2.1 281 1.5 92 -0.6 179 Southern Miss C-USA -1.0 217 0.4 149 -0.6 180 Hampton MEAC -2.0 270 1.3 99 -0.7 181 Northeastern CAA -1.1 222 0.3 155 -0.7 182 Rutgers Big Ten -1.0 220 0.3 159 -0.8 183 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 0.9 119 -1.7 263 -0.8 184 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 0.8 123 -1.6 256 -0.8 185 Detroit Horizon 0.1 157 -0.9 226 -0.8 186 Wagner NEC -1.1 227 0.3 154 -0.8 187 Jackson State SWAC -3.2 316 2.3 60 -1.0 188 Western Michigan MAC -0.1 171 -0.8 216 -1.0 189 Albany America East -0.8 200 -0.2 184 -1.0 190 Washington State Pac-12 0.4 140 -1.4 247 -1.0 191 Utah State MW 1.1 106 -2.2 289 -1.1 192 Rice C-USA 0.5 135 -1.6 262 -1.1 193 Loyola Marymount WCC -0.5 187 -0.6 209 -1.2 194 Memphis American -0.8 204 -0.4 197 -1.2 195 Idaho Big Sky -0.1 173 -1.1 231 -1.3 196 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 0.0 164 -1.2 241 -1.3 197 Drexel CAA -1.5 244 0.2 165 -1.3 198 Pacific WCC -0.8 206 -0.5 202 -1.3 199 Eastern Kentucky OVC 0.7 125 -2.0 277 -1.4 200 Evansville MVC -1.9 264 0.5 147 -1.4 201 North Texas C-USA -0.2 176 -1.2 234 -1.4 202 UC Irvine Big West -1.7 256 0.3 160 -1.4 203 Furman Southern -0.2 175 -1.2 242 -1.4 204 Bucknell Patriot 0.2 154 -1.6 261 -1.5 205 Morehead State OVC -1.7 257 0.2 164 -1.5 206 North Dakota Big Sky -1.8 258 0.2 162 -1.5 207 Oral Roberts Summit 0.2 149 -1.7 266 -1.5 208 Duquesne A-10 0.0 163 -1.5 250 -1.5 209 Wyoming MW 0.0 160 -1.5 251 -1.5 210 Stephen F. Austin Southland -2.3 290 0.8 128 -1.5 211 Cal Poly Big West 0.1 156 -1.7 265 -1.5 212 South Dakota State Summit -0.8 199 -0.9 221 -1.7 213 South Florida American -1.5 243 -0.2 181 -1.7 214 Colorado State MW -0.2 179 -1.5 252 -1.8 215 Mount St. Mary's NEC -2.1 279 0.3 152 -1.8 216 Tennessee State OVC -3.4 321 1.5 90 -1.8 217 Hawaii Big West -2.4 293 0.6 141 -1.8 218 UC Santa Barbara Big West -2.1 278 0.2 163 -1.9 219 UNC Greensboro Southern -0.6 189 -1.3 243 -1.9 220 New Hampshire America East -2.2 284 0.3 158 -1.9 221 Texas A&M-CC Southland -2.3 288 0.3 153 -2.0 222 Towson CAA -1.6 253 -0.4 190 -2.0 223 Kent State MAC -1.0 214 -1.0 227 -2.0 224 George Mason A-10 -0.7 194 -1.4 249 -2.1 225 Bowling Green MAC -1.0 212 -1.1 233 -2.1 226 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt -2.1 280 0.0 175 -2.1 227 Columbia Ivy League -1.6 251 -0.6 205 -2.2 228 Cornell Ivy League -1.4 239 -0.8 213 -2.2 229 Portland WCC -0.3 182 -1.9 274 -2.2 230 Brown Ivy League -0.5 186 -1.7 269 -2.3 231 N.J.I.T. Atlantic Sun -0.8 205 -1.4 245 -2.3 232 Eastern Illinois OVC -0.1 167 -2.2 286 -2.3 233 Arkansas-Little Rock Sun Belt -2.1 277 -0.2 183 -2.3 234 Tulane American -2.8 303 0.5 146 -2.3 235 High Point Big South -0.6 190 -1.7 264 -2.3 236 Cal State Northridge Big West -1.3 232 -1.1 232 -2.4 237 Navy Patriot -2.6 300 0.2 168 -2.4 238 Bradley MVC -3.4 322 1.0 118 -2.4 239 American University Patriot -2.1 275 -0.4 196 -2.5 240 Dartmouth Ivy League -1.6 250 -0.9 220 -2.5 241 Robert Morris NEC -3.0 309 0.5 144 -2.5 242 Texas State Sun Belt -3.7 330 1.3 101 -2.5 243 South Alabama Sun Belt -1.2 230 -1.3 244 -2.6 244 St. John's Big East -3.2 317 0.7 134 -2.6 245 Florida Atlantic C-USA -2.0 269 -0.6 208 -2.6 246 Drake MVC 0.6 129 -3.2 323 -2.6 247 Denver Summit -1.8 260 -0.9 217 -2.6 248 UMKC WAC -0.5 185 -2.2 284 -2.7 249 Liberty Big South -1.0 208 -1.7 267 -2.7 250 Canisius MAAC -0.5 188 -2.2 283 -2.7 251 New Orleans Southland -1.6 254 -1.0 229 -2.7 252 North Florida Atlantic Sun 0.2 150 -2.9 311 -2.7 253 Southeastern Louisiana Southland -1.3 234 -1.4 246 -2.8 254 Eastern Washington Big Sky 1.8 79 -4.6 345 -2.8 255 Quinnipiac MAAC -2.5 294 -0.3 188 -2.8 256 Wright State Horizon -1.9 265 -0.9 224 -2.8 257 UC Davis Big West -3.0 310 0.2 167 -2.8 258 UC Riverside Big West -1.6 252 -1.2 239 -2.8 259 Portland State Big Sky -0.3 181 -2.5 301 -2.8 260 Tennessee Tech OVC -0.7 197 -2.1 282 -2.9 261 Missouri SEC -1.3 233 -1.6 254 -2.9 262 Troy Sun Belt -1.1 224 -1.8 270 -2.9 263 Samford Southern -2.1 276 -0.9 225 -3.0 264 Austin Peay OVC -1.2 229 -1.8 271 -3.0 265 UMBC America East -1.5 245 -1.6 255 -3.1 266 Massachusetts Lowell America East -0.7 195 -2.4 293 -3.1 267 Howard MEAC -4.2 341 1.1 111 -3.1 268 Gardner-Webb Big South -1.5 240 -1.7 268 -3.2 269 Northern Arizona Big Sky -1.1 223 -2.1 278 -3.2 270 Southern University SWAC -2.5 296 -0.8 212 -3.2 271 Nicholls State Southland -2.6 298 -0.7 210 -3.2 272 Jacksonville State OVC -1.2 228 -2.1 279 -3.2 273 Binghamton America East -2.9 306 -0.4 193 -3.3 274 Sacramento State Big Sky -1.5 242 -1.8 272 -3.3 275 Stony Brook America East -1.8 259 -1.6 258 -3.4 276 USC Upstate Atlantic Sun -0.9 207 -2.5 298 -3.4 277 Miami (OH) MAC -2.7 302 -0.7 211 -3.4 278 Marist MAAC -0.2 178 -3.3 328 -3.5 279 Delaware CAA -1.5 246 -2.0 275 -3.5 280 Utah Valley WAC -2.3 289 -1.2 238 -3.5 281 Norfolk State MEAC -1.3 231 -2.5 300 -3.8 282 Cal State Fullerton Big West -1.4 238 -2.4 296 -3.8 283 Colgate Patriot -0.7 196 -3.1 320 -3.8 284 Youngstown State Horizon 0.2 147 -4.2 344 -4.0 285 Loyola (MD) Patriot -2.4 291 -1.6 260 -4.0 286 Florida International C-USA -2.6 297 -1.4 248 -4.0 287 South Dakota Summit -1.4 235 -2.7 307 -4.1 288 Western Illinois Summit -2.9 307 -1.2 235 -4.1 289 Stetson Atlantic Sun -0.1 172 -4.1 341 -4.2 290 Seattle WAC -4.0 337 -0.3 186 -4.3 291 Montana State Big Sky -0.7 198 -3.6 334 -4.3 292 Idaho State Big Sky -1.8 262 -2.5 303 -4.3 293 Tennessee-Martin OVC -1.9 268 -2.4 294 -4.3 294 San Jose State MW -3.8 331 -0.6 206 -4.4 295 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun -1.4 236 -3.0 315 -4.4 296 Northern Colorado Big Sky -1.9 266 -2.8 309 -4.7 297 Prairie View A&M SWAC -4.4 346 -0.4 194 -4.8 298 LIU Brooklyn NEC -2.1 282 -2.7 306 -4.8 299 Virginia Military Southern -2.2 285 -2.6 305 -4.8 300 Longwood Big South -2.3 286 -2.6 304 -4.8 301 Citadel Southern -0.1 166 -4.8 348 -4.8 302 Lamar Southland -2.6 301 -2.3 290 -4.9 303 Western Carolina Southern -3.7 326 -1.2 240 -4.9 304 Southern Utah Big Sky -2.0 273 -2.9 312 -4.9 305 SIU-Edwardsville OVC -2.4 292 -2.5 302 -4.9 306 Houston Baptist Southland -2.5 295 -2.4 297 -4.9 307 Bryant University NEC -1.5 247 -3.5 331 -5.0 308 Alabama State SWAC -2.9 305 -2.3 291 -5.1 309 Alabama A&M SWAC -2.3 287 -2.9 314 -5.2 310 San Diego WCC -4.2 340 -1.0 230 -5.2 311 Radford Big South -3.1 314 -2.1 281 -5.2 312 Campbell Big South -2.2 283 -3.2 324 -5.4 313 Incarnate Word Southland -1.8 263 -3.6 335 -5.4 314 Sacred Heart NEC -2.0 271 -3.5 332 -5.5 315 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt -3.4 320 -2.2 287 -5.6 316 Northern Kentucky Horizon -1.7 255 -4.0 340 -5.7 317 Appalachian State Sun Belt -3.2 315 -2.5 299 -5.7 318 UTSA C-USA -3.0 311 -2.7 308 -5.7 319 Charleston Southern Big South -1.9 267 -3.8 338 -5.7 320 Central Arkansas Southland -1.0 216 -4.8 347 -5.8 321 San Francisco WCC -3.0 308 -2.9 313 -5.9 322 Hartford America East -3.7 327 -2.2 288 -5.9 323 St. Francis (NY) NEC -3.9 334 -2.0 276 -5.9 324 Arkansas State Sun Belt -2.9 304 -3.1 321 -6.0 325 South Carolina State MEAC -2.0 274 -4.1 343 -6.2 326 Chicago State WAC -4.3 343 -1.9 273 -6.2 327 North Carolina A&T MEAC -3.9 335 -2.3 292 -6.2 328 St. Francis (PA) NEC -2.6 299 -3.7 337 -6.3 329 Savannah State MEAC -6.0 349 -0.4 199 -6.5 330 Southeast Missouri State OVC -3.3 318 -3.1 322 -6.5 331 Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC -5.0 347 -1.6 257 -6.6 332 Maryland-Eastern Shore MEAC -3.6 323 -3.0 316 -6.6 333 Lafayette Patriot -1.1 225 -5.5 351 -6.7 334 Morgan State MEAC -4.4 345 -2.4 295 -6.8 335 Niagara MAAC -3.7 328 -3.1 319 -6.8 336 Milwaukee Horizon -3.1 312 -3.8 339 -6.9 337 Central Connecticut St NEC -3.8 332 -3.2 326 -7.0 338 Abilene Christian Southland -4.2 339 -2.8 310 -7.0 339 Illinois-Chicago Horizon -3.9 336 -3.1 318 -7.0 340 Delaware State MEAC -3.6 324 -3.4 329 -7.0 341 UT-Rio Grande Valley WAC -3.7 329 -3.6 336 -7.3 342 Bethune-Cookman MEAC -3.4 319 -4.1 342 -7.4 343 Mississippi Valley State SWAC -4.3 342 -3.3 327 -7.5 344 Maine America East -4.0 338 -3.5 333 -7.6 345 Army Patriot -4.4 344 -3.2 325 -7.6 346 McNeese State Southland -3.1 313 -4.7 346 -7.8 347 Grambling State SWAC -6.1 350 -2.1 280 -8.2 348 Presbyterian Big South -5.3 348 -3.4 330 -8.7 349 Coppin State MEAC -3.9 333 -5.0 349 -8.9 350 Alcorn State SWAC -3.7 325 -5.4 350 -9.0 351 Florida A&M MEAC -7.2 351 -3.1 317 -10.2

Preseason BPI methodology

Preseason BPI is built on the player and coach level and is meant to predict where a team’s BPI rating will be at the end of the season. In the simplest sense, BPI looks at the percentage of minutes a team is returning, how good those returning minutes have been, how a team will fill its non-returning minutes and the strength of the coach on the sideline. Of course, preseason BPI isn’t that simple, so we’ll take you through the four components in depth.

The first component is the percentage of the roster returning. This is based on the minutes played in each previous season for returning players, including transfers. Each player’s highest percentage of minutes played in a season is used for this calculation to account for injuries and other setbacks. Then BPI looks at if those returning minutes were any good. This is captured with a weighted average of a player’s opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive rating (points per 100 possessions) in their careers.

To fill in the remaining minutes that have graduated or left the program, BPI factors in the average recruiting grade of the incoming class (compiled by 247 Sports) from four recruiting services (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and 247 Sports). It also gives extra weight to five-star players. Finally, BPI captures a coach’s past performance in terms of his average adjusted offensive and defensive rating since 2007-08 (including games at other schools). A first-time head coach gets a replacement-level rating.

These four components hold different weights depending on how many players are returning, but they are combined in a Bayesian model to produce a team’s preseason BPI.

Obviously there will be teams that preseason BPI “gets right” and “gets wrong,” but over the years it has proved accurate.