President Trump on Tuesday night named Judge Neil M. Gorsuch, a federal appeals court judge in Denver, to replace Justice Antonin Scalia on the United States Supreme Court. But there’s a long way to go before the new nominee is confirmed.

Judge Gorsuch will immediately face a public and private gantlet of scrutiny, and could end up at the center of fevered political maneuvering. Just 51 votes are needed to confirm him, but one big question looms:

Will the Senate Democrats filibuster the nomination? That would require 60 votes to overcome.

Expect the task to drag on for months: Elena Kagan was confirmed 87 days after she was nominated, in 2010; Sonia Sotomayor’s confirmation in 2009 took 66 days, and Samuel Alito Jr. was confirmed 82 days after his nod, in 2006.

Events would have to unfold very smoothly for the nominee to be confirmed by April 26, the date of the last scheduled arguments in the current court term, which typically ends in late June. The next term begins in October.