Every possible scenario that might follow the PM's defeat requires a new leader

The odd thing is not that 100 Conservative MPs might oppose Theresa May’s deal on Tuesday. It’s that 200-odd are supporting the wretched thing. How can a party that, for 300 years, aspired to put the nation before sectional interests, defend a treaty that leaves the United Kingdom torn, trammelled and trapped in a customs union that, unlike the EU itself, has no exit mechanism?

The Withdrawal Agreement is the culmination of two years of needless blunders. Every time Theresa May had to make a choice on Brexit, she picked the wrong option. There was the premature triggering of Article 50 – not only before she had carried out contingency preparations for no deal but, unbelievably, before she had a clear idea of what she wanted. There was the refusal to grant immediate residence rights to settled EU nationals (in defiance of Leave’s campaign promises) thus pretty well ensuring that the talks began in a climate of mistrust.

There was the Lancaster House speech, in which Mrs May scrawled a series of red lines with no notion of how to hold them – and has since awkwardly scrubbed them out one by one. There was the acceptance of the EU’s demand that the Irish border, in defiance of common sense, should be settled before trade talks began, when the obvious solution lies in a comprehensive UK-EU trade agreement that provides for mutual recognition. Worst of all, there was the acceptance of the Irish backstop, which removed any incentive for Brussels to negotiate seriously.