Municipal Election 2018 Eisenberger Won 189 out of 222 Polls Countering the narrative that the election result represents some kind of urban/suburban divide, the poll-by-poll results show that Fred Eisenberger won 85 percent of the polls across the entire city. By Ryan McGreal

Published October 26, 2018

Yesterday, RTH released a ward-by-ward summary of the municipal election results reporting that mayoral candidate Fred Eisenberger won 13 out of 15 wards, with challenger Vito Sgro winning just two wards.

When we drill down to the poll-by-poll results, we see a similar lopsided victory for Eisenberger, who won 189 out of the 222 polls - or 85.15 percent - compared to just 31 polls for Sgro. (Poll 114 St. Olga's Lifecare Centre had no mayoral votes at all, and Poll 1508 Alexander Place had the two candidates tied at 5 votes each.)

Likewise, Eisenberger won a majority of polls in 12 wards, while tying with Sgro in one ward (Ward 11 Glanbrook, where each candidate won three polls but Eisenberger won overall with 50.18 percent compared to 43.54 percent for Sgro), and losing in Wards 9 and 15.

Eisenberger's winning vote was distributed across almost the entire amalgamated city: Lower Hamilton, Upper Hamilton, Ancaster, Dundas, Glanbrook and Lower Stoney Creek, with only Waterdown and Upper Stoney Creek voting against him.

Poll-by-Poll Cartogram

A visualization by Chris Higgins, a researcher at McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics, demonstrates how broadly Eisenberger's vote was distributed. He plotted the poll-by-poll results on a cartogram, a map that normalizes the size of the polls by their population.



Cartogram of 2018 Mayoral Results by poll (Image Credit: Chris Higgins)

A conventional map tends to overstate the size of the vote for Sgro because the small number of mainly rural polls he won are very geographicaly large but have small populations. Here is the same poll-by-poll result on a conventional map:



Map of 2018 Mayoral Results by poll (Image Credit: Chris Higgins)

Visually, it looks like Sgro dominated the entire area around the city, but that large rural geographic area represents a very small number of polling precincts and voters.

Poll-by-Poll Results by Ward

Ward 1 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 101 Hamilton Mennonite Church 676 404 215 59.76% 31.80% 1 0 102 St. Mary Secondary School 440 254 151 57.73% 34.32% 1 0 103 Binkley United Church 177 115 30 64.97% 16.95% 1 0 104 Dalewood Elementary School 817 619 151 75.76% 18.48% 1 0 105 Church of God 308 174 105 56.49% 34.09% 1 0 106 Temple Anshe Sholom 783 566 166 72.29% 21.20% 1 0 107 Strathcona Elementary School 880 593 199 67.39% 22.61% 1 0 108 Erskine Presbyterian Church 734 496 182 67.57% 24.80% 1 0 109 St. Joseph Elementary School 852 677 139 79.46% 16.31% 1 0 110 Ryerson Elementary School 866 665 158 76.79% 18.24% 1 0 111 Earl Kitchener Elementary School 1199 921 243 76.81% 20.27% 1 0 112 Parkview Nursing Centre 12 6 2 50.00% 16.67% 1 0 113 Shalom Village 47 33 8 70.21% 17.02% 1 0 114 St. Olga's Lifecare Centre 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 115 Aberdeen Gardens 28 18 6 64.29% 21.43% 1 0 Ward 1 Advance Poll 1008 693 203 68.75% 20.14% 1 0 Total 8827 6234 1958 70.62% 22.18% 15 0

Ward 2 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 201 Bennetto Community Centre 690 440 190 63.77% 27.54% 1 0 202 Philpott Memorial Church 674 509 121 75.52% 17.95% 1 0 203 Bennetto Elementary School 585 370 150 63.25% 25.64% 1 0 204 Dr. J. Edgar Davey Elementary School 473 296 113 62.58% 23.89% 1 0 205 Main Hess Seniors Centre 372 251 82 67.47% 22.04% 1 0 206 City Hall 532 363 118 68.23% 22.18% 1 0 207 Access Community Church 514 350 131 68.09% 25.49% 1 0 208 Central Presbyterian Church 707 533 138 75.39% 19.52% 1 0 209 Church of the Ascension 534 379 136 70.97% 25.47% 1 0 210 Queen Victoria Elementary School 551 348 145 63.16% 26.32% 1 0 211 Durand Retirement Residence 25 14 4 56.00% 16.00% 1 0 212 Queens Garden LTC Residence 10 8 0 80.00% 0.00% 1 0 213 Dundurn Place Care Centre 12 7 1 58.33% 8.33% 1 0 214 Caroline Place Retirement Residence 60 44 13 73.33% 21.67% 1 0 Ward 2 Advance Poll 1064 693 208 65.13% 19.55% 1 0 Total 6803 4605 1550 67.69% 22.78% 15 0

Ward 3 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 301 Eva Rothwell Resource Centre 387 226 111 58.40% 28.68% 1 0 302 United Steelworkers Centre 201 100 86 49.75% 42.79% 1 0 303 Formerly St. Patrick's Elementary School 414 245 123 59.18% 29.71% 1 0 304 St. Patrick's Catholic Elementary School 416 242 113 58.17% 27.16% 1 0 305 Cathy Wever Elementary School 382 218 113 57.07% 29.58% 1 0 306 St. Ann Elementary School 564 338 172 59.93% 30.50% 1 0 307 Cathedral Secondary School 480 339 93 70.63% 19.38% 1 0 308 Adelaide Hoodless Elementary School 771 533 180 69.13% 23.35% 1 0 309 Holy Name of Jesus 550 352 168 64.00% 30.55% 1 0 310 Carisma Pentacostal Church 554 383 140 69.13% 25.27% 1 0 311 The Hamilton Dream Centre 776 543 179 69.97% 23.07% 1 0 312 École élémentaire Notre-Dame 732 429 249 58.61% 34.02% 1 0 313 Memorial (City) Elementary School 597 404 150 67.67% 25.13% 1 0 314 Hamilton Continuing Care 3 1 0 33.33% 0.00% 1 0 315 St. Peter's Hospital 16 9 5 56.25% 31.25% 1 0 316 Victoria Gardens LTC 13 9 0 69.23% 0.00% 1 0 317 The Carlisle Retirement Residence 14 11 3 78.57% 21.43% 1 0 318 Baywoods Place 21 16 1 76.19% 4.76% 1 0 319 Rosslyn Retirement Home 24 15 5 62.50% 20.83% 1 0 Ward 3 Advance Poll 847 541 157 63.87% 18.54% 1 0 Total 7762 4954 2048 63.82% 26.38% 20 0

Ward 4 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 401 Kiwanis Boys and Girls Club 481 277 165 57.59% 34.30% 1 0 402 Queen Mary Elementary School 665 407 208 61.20% 31.28% 1 0 403 St. John the Baptist Elementary School 1104 723 318 65.49% 28.80% 1 0 404 Brock University-Hamilton Campus 744 407 282 54.70% 37.90% 1 0 405 W.H. Ballard Elementary School 701 411 248 58.63% 35.38% 1 0 406 Royal Canadian Legion Branch 58 404 202 161 50.00% 39.85% 1 0 407 Museum of Steam and Technology 427 174 204 40.75% 47.78% 0 1 408 Sir Winston Churchill Recreation Centre 561 284 220 50.62% 39.22% 1 0 409 Hillcrest Elementary School 443 205 186 46.28% 41.99% 1 0 410 Parkdale Elementary School 406 194 167 47.78% 41.13% 1 0 411 Viscount Montgomery Elementary School 750 364 297 48.53% 39.60% 1 0 412 Rosedale Elementary School 622 316 232 50.80% 37.30% 1 0 413 Rosedale Arena 573 265 213 46.25% 37.17% 1 0 414 Abington Court Retirement Residence 28 19 4 67.86% 14.29% 1 0 Ward 4 Advance Poll 958 544 293 56.78% 30.58% 1 0 Total 8867 4792 3198 54.04% 36.07% 14 1

Ward 5 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 501 Hamilton Beach Rescue Unit 308 188 90 61.04% 29.22% 1 0 502 St. Charles Adult Education Centre 282 129 115 45.74% 40.78% 1 0 503 Greenvale Seniors Apartment 695 347 271 49.93% 38.99% 1 0 504 Dominic Agostino Riverdale Community Centre 515 242 193 46.99% 37.48% 1 0 505 St. Agnes Elementary School 670 315 265 47.01% 39.55% 1 0 506 Glen Echo Elementary School 777 419 214 53.93% 27.54% 1 0 507 St. David Elementary School 1158 575 460 49.65% 39.72% 1 0 508 Green Acres Elementary School 681 351 292 51.54% 42.88% 1 0 509 Cardinal Newman Secondary School 482 250 185 51.87% 38.38% 1 0 510 Elizabeth Bagshaw Elementary School 609 288 249 47.29% 40.89% 1 0 511 Sir Wilfrid Laurier Elementary School 421 230 139 54.63% 33.02% 1 0 512 Sir Wilfrid Laurier Elementary School 625 341 217 54.56% 34.72% 1 0 513 St. Luke Elementary School 759 432 261 56.92% 34.39% 1 0 514 Stoney Creek Recreation Centre 596 312 250 52.35% 41.95% 1 0 515 Arbour Creek LTC 24 17 4 70.83% 16.67% 1 0 516 Amica at Stoney Creek 54 33 18 61.11% 33.33% 1 0 Ward 5 Advance Poll 967 498 373 51.50% 38.57% 1 0 Total 9623 4967 3596 51.62% 37.37% 17 0

Ward 6 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 601 Highview Elementary School 719 351 337 48.82% 46.87% 1 0 602 École élémentaire Pavillon de la jeunesse 968 575 336 59.40% 34.71% 1 0 603 Trinity Presbyterian Church 700 372 282 53.14% 40.29% 1 0 604 Huntington Park Recreation Centre 994 491 454 49.40% 45.67% 1 0 605 Richard Beasley Elementary School 691 384 262 55.57% 37.92% 1 0 606 Lisgar Elementary School 688 336 315 48.84% 45.78% 1 0 607 Elliott Heights Baptist Church 613 320 251 52.20% 40.95% 1 0 608 St. Teresa of Calcutta Elementary School 725 410 286 56.55% 39.45% 1 0 609 St. Kateri Tekakwitha Elementary School 630 318 264 50.48% 41.90% 1 0 610 Salvation Army Mountain Citadel 836 432 352 51.67% 42.11% 1 0 611 Templemead Elementary School 762 379 341 49.74% 44.75% 1 0 612 Templemead Elementary School 390 176 201 45.13% 51.54% 0 1 Ward 6 Advance Poll 1406 782 494 55.62% 35.14% 1 0 Total 10122 5326 4175 52.62% 41.25% 12 1

Ward 7 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 701 George L. Armstrong Elementary School 726 408 270 56.20% 37.19% 1 0 702 Sacred Heart of Jesus Elementary School 669 352 257 52.62% 38.42% 1 0 703 St. John United Church 697 380 258 54.52% 37.02% 1 0 704 Inch Park Arena 555 281 222 50.63% 40.00% 1 0 705 Sackville Hill Senior Centre 662 326 295 49.24% 44.56% 1 0 706 Franklin Road Elementary School 664 318 295 47.89% 44.43% 1 0 707 Blessed Sacrament Church 971 516 388 53.14% 39.96% 1 0 708 Pauline Johnson Elementary School 841 447 354 53.15% 42.09% 1 0 709 Our Lady of Lourdes Elementary School 501 240 219 47.90% 43.71% 1 0 710 Lawfield Arena 754 369 336 48.94% 44.56% 1 0 711 Guido de Brès Christian High School 1189 665 449 55.93% 37.76% 1 0 712 St. Marguerite d'Youville Elementary School 1129 593 456 52.52% 40.39% 1 0 713 St. John Paul II Elementary School 837 431 339 51.49% 40.50% 1 0 714 Macassa Lodge 64 37 19 57.81% 29.69% 1 0 715 Grace Villa 3 1 2 33.33% 66.67% 0 1 716 Village of Wentworth Heights 154 113 29 73.38% 18.83% 1 0 717 The Court at Rushdale 64 35 18 54.69% 28.13% 1 0 Ward 7 Advance Poll 1556 902 438 57.97% 28.15% 1 0 Total 12036 6414 4644 53.29% 38.58% 17 1

Ward 8 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 801 École élémentaire Monseigneur-de-Laval 951 547 358 57.52% 37.64% 1 0 802 Queensdale Elementary School 813 490 280 60.27% 34.44% 1 0 803 Transfiguration Lutheran Church 581 283 275 48.71% 47.33% 1 0 804 Westmount Recreation Centre 773 447 277 57.83% 35.83% 1 0 805 Calvin Christian School 705 387 281 54.89% 39.86% 1 0 806 Mountain (Dave Andreychuk) Arena 700 332 316 47.43% 45.14% 1 0 807 James MacDonald Elementary School 1261 641 537 50.83% 42.59% 1 0 808 Harmony Baptist Church 1101 532 502 48.32% 45.59% 1 0 809 West Highland Baptist Church 719 329 346 45.76% 48.12% 0 1 810 St. Elizabeth Villa/Village 423 207 200 48.94% 47.28% 1 0 811 St. Joseph's Healthcare, West 5th Campus 19 5 3 26.32% 15.79% 1 0 812 The Wellington LTC 36 25 6 69.44% 16.67% 1 0 Ward 8 Advance Poll 930 554 301 59.57% 32.37% 1 0 Total 9012 4779 3682 53.03% 40.86% 12 1

Ward 9 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 901 St. Paul Elementary School 1206 541 571 44.86% 47.35% 0 1 902 Valley Park Recreation Centre 690 327 330 47.39% 47.83% 0 1 903 Mount Albion Elementary School 843 385 389 45.67% 46.14% 0 1 904 Bishop Ryan Secondary School 819 360 381 43.96% 46.52% 0 1 905 Gatestone Elementary School 631 242 306 38.35% 48.49% 0 1 906 Our Lady of the Assumption Parish 489 249 201 50.92% 41.10% 1 0 907 Saltfleet Secondary School 327 129 142 39.45% 43.43% 0 1 908 Tapleytown Elementary School 644 224 351 34.78% 54.50% 0 1 909 Heritage Green LTC 59 34 19 57.63% 32.20% 1 0 910 Ridgeview LTC 8 5 1 62.50% 12.50% 1 0 Ward 9 Advance Poll 911 440 351 48.30% 38.53% 1 0 Total 6627 2936 3042 44.30% 45.90% 4 7

Ward 10 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 1001 St. Francis Xavier Catholic Church 976 438 448 44.88% 45.90% 0 1 1002 Mountain View Elementary School 807 367 360 45.48% 44.61% 1 0 1003 Mountain View Elementary School 956 479 394 50.10% 41.21% 1 0 1004 Memorial (Stoney Creek) Elementary School 955 423 427 44.29% 44.71% 0 1 1005 St. Clare of Assisi Elementary School 994 453 432 45.57% 43.46% 1 0 1006 Our Lady of Peace Elementary School 869 381 377 43.84% 43.38% 1 0 1007 Saltfleet Community Centre 918 419 414 45.64% 45.10% 1 0 1008 Immaculate Heart of Mary Elementary School 774 346 331 44.70% 42.76% 1 0 1009 Winona Community Centre 979 428 451 43.72% 46.07% 0 1 1010 Liuna Gardens Banquet Centre 916 484 338 52.84% 36.90% 1 0 1011 Clarion Nursing/Lakeview Retirement 26 16 6 61.54% 23.08% 1 0 1012 New Village Retirement/Pine Villa Nursing 16 11 3 68.75% 18.75% 1 0 1013 Orchard Terrace Care Centre 11 5 0 45.45% 0.00% 1 0 1014 Seasons Retirement Community 47 29 11 61.70% 23.40% 1 0 Ward 10 Advance Poll 1636 798 597 48.78% 36.49% 1 0 Total 10880 5077 4589 46.66% 42.18% 12 3

Ward 11 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 1101 Twenty Place 1859 1038 777 55.84% 41.80% 1 0 1102 Mount Hope Elementary School 1093 470 547 43.00% 50.05% 0 1 1103 Glanbrook Arena 946 406 470 42.92% 49.68% 0 1 1104 St. Matthew Elementary School 824 410 326 49.76% 39.56% 1 0 1105 Binbrook Agricultural Hall 1005 456 495 45.37% 49.25% 0 1 Ward 11 Advance Poll 1268 730 438 57.57% 34.54% 1 0 Total 6995 3510 3053 50.18% 43.65% 3 3

Ward 12 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 1201 Ancaster Rotary Centre 702 391 301 55.70% 42.88% 1 0 1202 Ancaster Municipal Service Centre 749 449 283 59.95% 37.78% 1 0 1203 Rousseau Elementary School 995 575 392 57.79% 39.40% 1 0 1204 Holy Name of Mary Elementary School 956 430 465 44.98% 48.64% 0 1 1205 Ancaster Meadow Elementary School 992 526 425 53.02% 42.84% 1 0 1206 Meadowlands Fellowship Christian Reformed Church 834 422 375 50.60% 44.96% 1 0 1207 Ancaster Christian Reformed Church 639 363 247 56.81% 38.65% 1 0 1208 Ancaster Senior Elementary School 1259 740 464 58.78% 36.85% 1 0 1209 Ancaster High Secondary School 1284 785 464 61.14% 36.14% 1 0 1210 Ancaster Senior Achievement Centre 494 230 239 46.56% 48.38% 0 1 1211 Copetown Lions Community Centre 588 293 270 49.83% 45.92% 1 0 1212 Royal Canadian Legion Branch 500 980 292 617 29.80% 62.96% 0 1 1213 The Meadows LTC 8 5 2 62.50% 25.00% 1 0 1214 Carrington Place 18 10 6 55.56% 33.33% 1 0 1215 Highgate Retirement Residence 16 8 4 50.00% 25.00% 1 0 Ward 12 Advance Poll 1531 926 533 60.48% 34.81% 1 0 Total 12045 6445 5087 53.51% 42.23% 13 3

Ward 13 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 1301 Sir William Osler Elementary School 1155 686 417 59.39% 36.10% 1 0 1302 Dundas Lions Memorial Community Centre 811 485 275 59.80% 33.91% 1 0 1303 St. Bernadette Elementary School 763 485 249 63.56% 32.63% 1 0 1304 Dundana Elementary School 808 473 310 58.54% 38.37% 1 0 1305 Dundas Valley Montessori School 697 438 216 62.84% 30.99% 1 0 1306 St. Augustine Elementary School 737 527 182 71.51% 24.69% 1 0 1307 Yorkview Elementary School 810 482 278 59.51% 34.32% 1 0 1308 Dundana Elementary School 1025 615 356 60.00% 34.73% 1 0 1309 Hamilton Technology Centre 376 200 154 53.19% 40.96% 1 0 1310 Grace Christian School 495 169 288 34.14% 58.18% 0 1 1311 Spencer Valley Elementary School 936 401 487 42.84% 52.03% 0 1 1312 Beverly Arena 509 162 316 31.83% 62.08% 0 1 1313 Valens Community Centre 889 284 521 31.95% 58.61% 0 1 1314 Blackadar Continuing Care 17 13 3 76.47% 17.65% 1 0 1315 Dundas Retirement Place 14 8 2 57.14% 14.29% 1 0 1316 St. Joseph's Villa 106 80 22 75.47% 20.75% 1 0 1317 Georgian Retirement Residence 19 9 7 47.37% 36.84% 1 0 1318 Wentworth Lodge 40 21 14 52.50% 35.00% 1 0 Ward 13 Advance Poll 1304 758 431 58.13% 33.05% 1 0 Total 11511 6296 4528 54.70% 39.34% 15 4

Ward 14 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 1401 Mountview Elementary School 927 526 368 56.74% 39.70% 1 0 1402 Chedoke Twin Pad Arena 903 508 366 56.26% 40.53% 1 0 1403 Chedoke Middle School 1203 678 490 56.36% 40.73% 1 0 1404 Sir Allan MacNab Secondary School 819 432 342 52.75% 41.76% 1 0 1405 Peoples Church 806 421 322 52.23% 39.95% 1 0 1406 Gordon Price Elementary School 1134 623 452 54.94% 39.86% 1 0 1407 R.A. Riddell Elementary School 771 400 334 51.88% 43.32% 1 0 1408 St. Thomas More Catholic Secondary School 828 455 325 54.95% 39.25% 1 0 1409 Rehoboth United Reformed Church 835 423 369 50.66% 44.19% 1 0 1410 Regina Gardens LTC 4 4 0 100.00% 0.00% 1 0 1411 Extendicare Hamilton 32 22 4 68.75% 12.50% 1 0 1412 Idlewyld Manor 32 17 9 53.13% 28.13% 1 0 1413 St. Peter's Residence at Chedoke 19 11 3 57.89% 15.79% 1 0 1414 Villa Italia 40 26 4 65.00% 10.00% 1 0 1415 Meadowlands 71 59 8 83.10% 11.27% 1 0 1416 Willowgrove LTC 11 10 1 90.91% 9.09% 1 0 1417 Deerview Crossing Retirement Residence 49 31 13 63.27% 26.53% 1 0 Ward 14 Advance Poll 881 506 302 57.43% 34.28% 1 0 Total 9365 5152 3712 55.01% 39.64% 18 0

Ward 15 Poll Total Fred Vito Fred Share Vito Share Fred Won Vito Won 1501 St. Thomas the Apostle Elementary School 934 343 482 36.72% 51.61% 0 1 1502 Grace Anglican Church 818 327 422 39.98% 51.59% 0 1 1503 Harry Howell Arena 1123 400 616 35.62% 54.85% 0 1 1504 Guy B. Brown Elementary School 928 389 436 41.92% 46.98% 0 1 1505 Guardian Angels Elementary School 375 145 165 38.67% 44.00% 0 1 1506 Flamborough Centre Elementary School 857 269 515 31.39% 60.09% 0 1 1507 Our Lady of Mount Carmel Elementary School 820 301 435 36.71% 53.05% 0 1 1508 Alexander Place 12 5 5 41.67% 41.67% 0 0 1509 Waterdown Manor 10 8 1 80.00% 10.00% 1 0 Ward 15 Advance Poll 785 419 251 53.38% 31.97% 1 0 Total 6662 2606 3328 39.12% 49.95% 2 7

Ryan McGreal, the editor of Raise the Hammer, lives in Hamilton with his family and works as a programmer, writer and consultant. Ryan volunteers with Hamilton Light Rail, a citizen group dedicated to bringing light rail transit to Hamilton. Ryan wrote a city affairs column in Hamilton Magazine, and several of his articles have been published in the Hamilton Spectator. His articles have also been published in The Walrus, HuffPost and Behind the Numbers. He maintains a personal website, has been known to share passing thoughts on Twitter and Facebook, and posts the occasional cat photo on Instagram.

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