It makes sense that Arizona might vote for Joe Biden over President Trump in 2020. But what about Elizabeth Warren? For a candidate who wants to nationalize one-fifth of the economy with a "Medicare For all" bill that all but bans private health insurance and enacts free college following the mass cancellation of student debt?

According a new Phoenix-based poll, it's possible. Warren and Trump are now in a virtual tie in the Grand Canyon State.

Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a little more than 4.5% in 2016, halving Mitt Romney's nine point lead from four years prior. According to the latest poll, Biden would beat Trump by two points, and Trump would lose to Warren by one.

The trend holds in Arizona's Senate race, where appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally, faces her second Senate race in as many years. On paper, McSally ought to prove a shoo-in. The Republican was the first woman to fly in combat in the Air Force. She's used her current seat to advance justice for sexual assault survivors in the military, opening up with her own experiences to advocate for fellow victims, and she's allied herself with centrists and moderate coalitions on positions throughout her political career.

Yet she trails Democratic opponent Mark Kelly, the astronaut turned gun control activist husband of Gabby Giffords, by five points.

What gives? Kelly is a popular figure and a strong candidate, and it's not hard to see why upper-middle class white folks in Maricopa County would take Uncle Joe over another four years of Trump nonsense. But Elizabeth Warren? You're telling me that the Range Rover driving millionaires of Maricopa County, which pivotally turned the county seat, including Phoenix and lily-white Scottsdale for Kyrsten Sinema, will choose Warren's wealth taxes and socialist fantasies over tacky Trump tweets?

If Republicans have to start seriously worrying about Arizona, they have a problem that starts with Trump, but it won't end with him.