‘Tuberville has seized the momentum’: Internal polling shows 16% gap in U.S. Senate primary

Yellowhammer News has obtained a new internal polling memo from Tommy Tuberville’s U.S. Senate campaign that shows the former Auburn University head football coach gaining 10% since June and stretching his lead well into double digits.

The memo summarizes the results of a survey conducted by Moore Information Group, a well-respected national polling firm, from August 11-13. 400 likely 2020 Republican primary voters in Alabama made up the sampling of respondents. The poll’s margin of error was 5%.

The polling memo details, “The data have been weighted to reflect expected turnout demographics for the 2020 primary election.”

“Tuberville leads all candidates with 33%, with support for both Congressman Bradley Byrne (17%) and former Chief Justice Roy Moore (15%) in the mid-teens,” the memo states.

According to the survey, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, at 13%, barely trailed Moore.

State Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Indian Springs) came in at 1%.

Tuberville, at 23%, was leading the field in his internal poll conducted by the same firm in June. That month’s results showed Moore in second at 18%, followed by Byrne (16%), Merrill (8%) and Mooney (2%). Moore and Merrill had not yet officially announced their bids at that time.

One interesting nugget emphasized in the memo is that the August survey asked respondents whether they were fans of Auburn’s or the University of Alabama’s football programs.

Some have predicted that Tuberville’s Auburn past, given the intense rivalry between the programs, could hurt his statewide campaign.

However, he was the number-one choice of Tide fans in this latest poll, gaining 33% of their vote. Moore (17%) was the next most popular candidate with Bama enthusiasts.

Then, among Auburn fans, Tuberville did have a marked increase over his overall ballot number. Among those who cheer on the Tigers, 43% said they would vote for him, with Merrill (18%) the next highest in that demographic.

The memo also revealed some geographical differences, including the obvious reality that Byrne is leading in the district he represents in Congress, AL-01. Tuberville led all other congressional districts, besides AL-02, where he was tied with Moore.

At 38%, Tuberville performed best out of all candidates with those respondents identifying immigration as their top priority.

A look at name identification and favorability numbers also looked encouraging to Tuberville’s campaign.

While 97% of respondents had heard of Moore, the former Alabama Supreme Court chief justice’s numbers are still under water — and not appearing to improve. 31% view Moore favorably, while 56% view him unfavorably.

Tuberville had the next highest name identification level by a wide margin at 87%. An impressive 54% of respondents viewed him favorably, compared to 12% unfavorably.

Byrne and Merrill’s numbers in this regard were very similar.

Byrne had 56% name identification, with 31% viewing him favorably and 7% unfavorably.

Merrill had 54% name identification, with 29% viewing him favorably and 5% unfavorably.

In a hotly contested race like this, it can also be important to see which candidates are popular with the supporters of another candidate. As the primary gets closer, some voters may choose to go with their “second choice” if he or she believes that candidate has a better chance of winning — or if their primary choice disappoints them.

Testing a second choice ballot, Tuberville (23%) led in this category, too, followed by Byrne (17%), Merrill (16%), Moore (11%) and Mooney (3%).

In a statement, Erik Iverson, president and managing partner of Moore Information Group, said, “Coach Tuberville has seized the momentum and stretched his lead to double digits in a crowded primary, and that’s no small feat.”

“Alabama Republican primary voters are backing Coach, a political outsider who’s been a staunch supporter of President Trump from the beginning, over the politicians running against him. Doug Jones should be very nervous,” he concluded.

You can view the full polling memo here.

Sean Ross is the editor of Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @sean_yhn