The Hilltop neighborhood has become ground zero for that change. Located just a few blocks west of downtown, Hilltop was historically the city’s African American stronghold. These days it's gentrifying, a process fueled by the many new developments taking shape there in anticipation of a light rail expansion that will connect the neighborhood to the larger region. Though the station is still years away, longtime residents say the shifting landscape is already bringing in wealthier, whiter residents and pushing out the lower-income African American community.

The potential impact of the station, which is slated for a 2022 opening, is outlined in a report produced by the Federal Transit Administration. It found that 45 percent of Hilltop households are already cost burdened meaning that resident are paying more than 30 percent of their income on rent or mortgage. That is compared to 39 percent city wide. For those people already struggling to pay their bills, life will certainly get harder. Rents and property values are rising in response to new development and will likely continue to do so once the light rail opens.

The new interest in the neighborhood and the accompanying rise in prices has led to an exodus of black Tacomans from Hilltop – a story with stark parallels to the displacement of residents in Seattle’s Central District. The Seattle Times reports that Hilltop lost 35 percent of its African American population between 2010 and 2015.

“We have longtime African American homeowners who can no longer afford to stay where they are. There are very few businesses of color. In the 90s, the Martin Luther King Way corridor was full of minority owner businesses. Now we’re down to seven. It’s tough to see,” says Brendan Nelson, board president of the Hilltop Action Coalition, a community group that’s been working in the neighborhood for three decades.

Nelson says he is happy to see some of the new businesses. Hilltop has long suffered from a lack of investment in part due to a reputation for gang violence lingering from the late 80s and early 90s. But he is also worried that the hip bars, restaurants and shops are going to erase what remains of his community. He fears, too, that developments like the 249-unit apartment building going up near the future light rail station will continue to drive up costs.

“I would love to see more minority-owned businesses and businesses that reflect our community and its history and fabric,” he says. “If a developer is thinking about coming to Hilltop, they should really engage with the community about what we would like to see. Ask how they can be a part of the community instead of just a passerby.”

Nelson has been working with the city to try and find ways for longtime Hilltop residents to benefit from the change, rather than just being pushed out by it. The Links to Opportunity Project is doing workforce development in partnership with local colleges to ensure some of the jobs created by light rail expansion go to existing residents.

It is one of a number of steps the city is taking in response to the rising cost of living. The Tacoma Housing Authority has been buying up property in Hilltop to expand its affordable housing offerings. In response to a Seattle developer buying the Tiki Apartments and evicting its residents – most of whom are low-income and many of whom have disabilities – the City Council voted to enact stronger tenant protections. In one district, the city is experimenting with a policy that requires residential developers building apartments with 15 or more units to make 10 percent of the units affordable to people earning 50 percent of the area median income.

That alone isn’t going to solve the displacement problem, especially if the wave of Seattleites heading south continues to grow. Self-described Tacoma booster Andrew Austin, who has lived there for much of the last 15 years, is hoping the city can find a way to encourage economic growth without losing the residents and culture that make up its identity. He says he’s been struck by the sight of construction cranes funded by private investment, something he’s seen very little of in his time in Tacoma. He sees new people and new investment as a chance to improve transit, parks, infrastructure, create jobs — all the things that thriving cities need.

“Wouldn’t we rather have a parking problem than a tumbleweed problem?” Austin asks. “If we grow right now it’s a good thing. We need to figure out how to do it well, rather than shun it.”

Martin, on the other hand, is worried the city won’t act quickly enough to get ahead of its problems. She already sees parallels to Seattle’s struggle with rapid population growth outpacing the supply of housing. “There isn’t enough housing for everyone. And people are actively fighting against zoning changes that would allow for more density.”

Still, Martin recognizes that prices are still rising in Seattle and its surrounding cities and as they get priced out, people are going to continue moving to Tacoma. Like Nelson, she hopes they do so with an eye towards joining the communities to which they’re moving.

“I think people have to have a sense of humility and responsibility when they move in,” Martin says. “It’s not lost on Tacomans that this place was a punch line for Seattlites who thought they were too good for it and now it’s their affordable solution.”