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CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ASUNCI 04845 01 OF 04 071920Z ACTION ARA-15 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-05 H-01 INR-10 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 ICA-11 AID-05 PC-01 HA-05 IO-14 COME-00 EB-08 FRB-03 TRSE-00 XMB-02 OPIC-03 LAB-04 SIL-01 OMB-01 AGRE-00 /116 W ------------------040687 071952Z /43 R 071340Z NOV 78 FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4471 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 1 OF 4 ASUNCION 4845 EO 11652: NA TAGS: PGOV PINS PA SUBJECT: STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS IN PARAGUAY SUMMARY: IN RECENT MONTHS, THE PARAGUAYAN GOVERNMENT HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT ITS STRAINED RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES ARE OVER AND THAT THE MEASURES IT HAS TAKEN TO REMEDY THE WORST HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES HAVE SATISFIED WASHINGTON. NONETHELESS, THE GOP WAS SHAKEN BY ITS NEARCONFRONTATION WITH THE USG AND, LOOKING AROUND AT THE CHANGING SCENE IN MANY OF ITS LATIN AMERICAN NEIGHBORS, APPEARS CONCERNED ABOUT ITS FUTURE. WITH THE WORST TURBULENCE OVER HUMAN RIGHTS OVER AND RELATIONS WITH THE USG BACK ON AN EVEN KEEL, HOW MUCH DIFFERENT IS THE SYSTEM OF RULE ESTABLISHED BY GENERAL STROESSNER NEARLY 25 YEARS AGO? WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE REGIME AND HOW IS IT ADAPTING TO NEW CIRCUMSTANCES? THE ANSWER SEEMS TO BE THAT THE GOP IS A LATIN AMERICAN MILITARY DICTADURA WITH THE TRAPPINGS OF A MASS MOVEMENT GRAFTED ON AND THAT IT HAS REALLY CHANGED LITTLE, PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO MEET THE CHALLENGE OF RAPID MODERNIZATION WITHOUT RUNNING THE RISK OF UPSET OVER THE NEXT YEAR OR SO AS ECONOMIC EXPANSION COMPLICATES THE INTERRELATIONSHIPS WITHIN THE STROESSNER POWER STRUCTURE. THE PERCEPTION IS WIDESPREAD THAT THIS MAY BE HIS LAST TERM CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ASUNCI 04845 01 OF 04 071920Z AND SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT HIS SON GUSTAVO IS BEING READIED AS A FIGUREHEAD TO FILL ANY VACUUM CAUSED BY ILLNESS OR DEATH. STRAINS BETWEEN THE COLORADO PARTY AND THE ARMY ARE BARELY DISGUISED NOW AND MIGHT QUICKLY SURFACE IF STROESSNER'S IRON HAND WERE REMOVED. BUT THE VAST REWARDS OF ELITE MEMBERSHIP ARE A STRONG INDUCEMENT TO COOPERATION AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL THE APRTICIPANTS IN Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 THE POWER STRUCTURE HAVE THE STRONGEST VESTED INTEREST IN ITS MAINTENANCE. WHETHER THIER CONCERN THAT IT SURVIVE A TRANSITION INTACT CAN BE REALIZED REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NOT SURPRISINGLY, STROESSNER HIMSELF SHOWS NO ENTHUSIASM FOR TRANSITION PLANNING. END SUMMARY. 1. RELATIONS BETWEEN PARAGUAY AND THE UNITED STATES BECAME BADLY STRAINED DURING THE LAST YEAR AS A RESULT OF OUR CONCERN WITH THEIR VIOLATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS. WE CALLED FOR AN END TO SUCH GROSS ABUSES AS TORTURE AND PROLONGED DETENTION WITHOUT TRIAL, ARGUED THAT THE INTER-AMERICAN HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION (IAHRC) SHOULD BE PERMITTED TO VISIT PARAGUAY AND WARNED THAT HUMAN RIGHTS WOULD BE A FACTOR IN DETERMINING U.S. AID TO PARAGUAY. SINCE SEPTEMBER 1977, BILATERAL U.S. AID PROGRAMS HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED AND U.S. REPRESENTATIVES HAVE CAST NEGATIVE VOTES AGAINST PARAGUAY'S MILTILATERAL LOAN REQUESTS. WE NOTIFIED THE GOP THAT THESE ACTIONS SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A SANCTION FOR FAILURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON A COMMITMENT TO RECEIVE THE IAHRC AND DEFIANCE OF A RESOLUTION OF THE VIII GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE ORGANIZATION OF AMERICAN STATES CALLING FOR AN ON-SITE INVESTIGATION IN PARAGUAY. SINCE LATE JULY, FOLLOWING THE LAINO AFFAIR IN WHICH RELATIONS BECAME BADLY STRAINED, THE U.S. HAS MODIFIED THIS POLICY NOTICEABLY TO THE EVIDENT RELIEF OF BOTH MILITARY AND POLITICAL LEADERS OF PARAGUAY. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ASUNCI 04845 01 OF 04 071920Z IN THE COURSE OF THE LAST TWO YEARS, THE GOP RESPONDED TO USG PRESSURES (AND OAS AND EUROPEAN URGING) BY REDUCING THE POPULATION OF POLITICAL PRISONERS FROM OVER 500 TO LESS THAN TWENTY; BY INSTITUTING FORMAL CHARGES AGAINST NEW DETAINEES; BY SPEEDING UP JUDICIAL PROCESSING; AND BY RELAXING PRESS CENSORSHIP AND MOST RESTRAINTS ON FREE SPEECH. THESE STEPS HAVE BEEN DRAMATIC ONES. THEY CANNOT BE IGNORED. YET IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE STROESSNER REGIME TOOK EACH OF THEM WITH EXTREME RELUCTANCE AND ILL GRACE WHILE ITS OFFICIAL PRESS ECHOED PRIVATE COMPLAINTS THAT THE U.S. HUMAN RIGHTS POLICY ONLY SUPPORTS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNISM'S AIM OF WORLD DOMINATION AND CONSTITUTES INTERVENTION IN INTERNAL AFFAIRS. NOR DID PARAGUAY ADMIT THE IAHRC DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, NUMEROUS CASES OF FALSE ARREST, MISTREATMENT, AND DETENTION WITHOUT CHARGE OCCURED, OF WHICH THE LAINO CASE WAS THE MOST FLAGRANT EXAMPLE. A NEW TACTIC OF REPRESSION, THE THREAT OF ILLEGAL DEPORTATION, HAS BEEN EXERCISED ONLY ONCE SO FAR BUT CONSTITUTES A SWORD OF DAMOCLES OVER THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION. ON THE WHOLE, HOWEVER, THE GOP APPEARED TO BE MAKING STRENUOUS EFFORTS TO ALTER ITS GANGLAND IMAGE IN AN EFFORT TO APPEASE FOREIGN CRITICS. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 2. SIGNIFICANT SOCIAL CHANGE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP SPEED IN PARAGUAY BUT THE OVERRIDING FOREIGN CONCERN WITH HUMAN RIGHTS HERE DURING THE LAST YEAR HAS TENDED TO OBSCURE SOME BASIC ECONOMIC TRENDS THAT ARE EMERGING. BY PRESSING THE GOP ON HUMAN RIGHTS, THE U.S. AND OTHER CONCERNED GOVERNMENTS HELPED ACCELERATE THE PROCESS OF CHANGE INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE GOP BY ENCOURAGING A FREER PRESS, LESS RELIANCE ON REPRESSION, MORE SENSITIVITY TO INERNATIONAL OPINION AND GREATER FRANKNESS IN DEALING WITH POLITICAL QUESTIONS. RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS HAS GROWN MARKEDLY BUT THE STRUCTURAL PROBLEM OF AUTHORITARIANISM REMAINS AND THE GROUND WORK IS STILL IN PLACE FOR A RAPID RETURN TO PAST HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ASUNCI 04845 01 OF 04 071920Z 3. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE EVIDENCE OF ITS CONTROL OVER THE COUNTRY, THE STROESSNER REGIME SEEMS TO BE WORRIED ABOUT HOW LONG IT CAN MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE THAT HAS SERVED IT SO WELL SINCE 1954. THE STEEP DECLINE IN ITS RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. MAY HAVE REACHED A NADIR IN THE LAINO AFFAIR BUT, DESPITE EFFORTS ON BOTH SIDES TO END PUBLIC DISCORD, THE REGIME IS CLEARLY NOT ON GOOD TERMS WITH WASHINGTON. THAT IS A CAUSE OF REAL DISCOMFORT TO THE PARAGUAYAN ELITE BECAUSE FOR DECADES HERE, THE U. S. HAS BEEN REGARDED AS ONE OF STROESSNER'S PRINCIPAL PATRONS AND THE "FREE WORLD'S" LEADER AGAINST THE EVIL OF COMMUNISM. IN RECENT MONTHS, THE PRESS HAS BEGUN TO PUBLISH STORIES THAT PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF THE REGIME'S DISFAVOR IN DEMOCRATIC CIRCLES IN THE U.S. IN EUROPE, AND LATIN AMERI CA. DEFERRED IFI LOANS, QUESTIONS ABOUT PARAGUAY'S DEVELOPMENT PRIOTITIES, THE GOP'S OBVIOUS ISOLATION IN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND EVEN FOREIGN CRITICISM OF GENERAL STROESSNER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE PRESS FOR THE FIRST TIME. 4. BUT TWO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS ARE CAUSING THE REGIME EVEN MORE ANXIETY THAN THE VISIBLE DISTANCE SOUGHT BY THE USG. THE NEAR CIVIL WAR IN NICARAGUA IS THE CAUSE OF GREAT CONCERN IN PARAGUAY, CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ASUNCI 04845 02 OF 04 071932Z Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 ACTION ARA-15 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-05 H-01 INR-10 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 ICA-11 AID-05 PC-01 IO-14 HA-05 COME-00 EB-08 FRB-03 TRSE-00 XMB-02 OPIC-03 LAB-04 SIL-01 OMB-01 AGRE-00 /116 W ------------------040762 071952Z /43 R 071340Z NOV 78 FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4472 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 2 OF 4 ASUNCION 4845 E.O. 11652: GDS FOR DESPITE THE DISSIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES, STROESSNER HIMSELF SEES PARALLELS BETWEEN HIS SYSTEM AND SOMOZA'S. IN PARAGUAY, PLAGUED FOR OVER 150 YEARS BY INTERNAL UPHEAVEALS AND FLANKED BY POWERFUL NEIGHBORS, NOTHING AROUSES MORE CONCERN THAN THE SPECTER OF INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION TO RESTORE ORDER. THE GOP, SPECIFICALLY PRESIDENT STROESSNER, SEES THE THREAT OF OAS INTERVENTION IN NICARAGUA AS A VERY DANGEROUS PRECEDENT. CIVIL WAR TO THE DEATH WOULD BE PREFERABLE, IN STORESSNER'S BOOKS, TO A SANDINISTA VICTORY. BUT THE GOP WILL NOT SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO LIBERAL DEMOCRACY IN MANAGUA THAT IS STAGE-MANAGED BY THE OAS (READ U.S./VENEZUELA) BECUAUSE IT WOULD POSE AN OBVIOUS SUBTERFUGE FOR LATER INTERVENTION HERE BY EITHER LEFT OR RIGHT WING FACTIONS IN BRAZIL OR ARGENTINA OR FOR SOME SORT OF OAS STAGE-MANAGEMENT OF TRANSITION IN PARAGUAY. IN BOTH REGIME AND OPPOSITION CIRCLES, THERE IS A CONSCIOUSNESS THAT A STANDOFF OR A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN THE COLORADO PARTY AND THE ARMY AFTER STROESSNER GOES MIGHT PUT PARAGUAY IN THE SITUATION NICARAGUA NOW OCCUPIES. 5. ANOTHER CAUSE OF REAL WORRY IN PARAGUAYAN ELITE CIRCLES IS THE BREAKDOWN IN WHAT IS KNOWN AS SOUTHERN CONE SOLIDARITY, A CODE PHRASE FOR COORDINATED RESISTANCE BY THE RIGHTIST CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ASUNCI 04845 02 OF 04 071932Z GOVERNMENTS OF SANTIAGO, MONTEVIDEO, BRASILIA, BUENOS AIRES AND ASUNCION AGAINST FOREIGN DEMANDS THAT REPRESSION BE ENDED AND DEMOCRACY BE ALLOWED TO REEMERGE. IN THE OTHER COUNTRIES, THE VERB "REEMERGE"MAKES SENSE BUT FOR PARAGUAY, WHOSE HISTORY HAS SEEN ONLY AN ALTERATION OF DICTATORSHIPS AND ANARCHY, THE TREND TOWARD "DECOMPRESAO" OR "ABERTURA" AMONG ITS NEIGHBORS IS A CAUSE FOR ALARM. BRAZIL IS THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN PARAGUAYAN POWER CALCULATIONS TODAY. THE RESUMPTION OF SOMETHING LIKE INTRA-ARMY POLITICS THERE OVER THE LAST YEAR HAS BEEN FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY BY PARAGUAYANS OF EVERY PERSUASION. FOR THE STROESSNER REGIME, THE Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 EMERGENCE OF THE CRACKS IN BRAZILIAN MILITARY SOLIDARITY AND CALLS FOR DEMOCRACY (EVEN FROM WITHIN THE ARMY) ARE A CAUSE OF ACUTE DISTRESS. FOR PARAGUAYAN OPPOSITIONISTS, THE CHANGES IN BRAZIL ARE WELCOMED AS THE WAVE OF THE FUTURE. EVEN MORE DISTURBING THAN CHAOS IN NICARAGUA OR THE REEMERGENCE OF POLITICS IN BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA IS THE UPSURGE OF INTERNATIONAL RIVALRIES AMONG THE SOUTHERN CONE COUNTRIES. THE THREAT OF WAR BETWEEN ARGENTINA AND CHILE IS CAUSING DEEP WORRY IN PARAGUAY, ALTHOUGH PRACTICALLY NO ONE HERE EXPECTS WAR OVER THE BEAGLE CHANNEL. IT IS THE BREAKDOWN IN SOUTHERN CONE SOLIDARITY THAT REALLY DISTURBS THE GOP. ARGENTINA'S DECISION TO ADMIT THE IAHRC IS JUST A SYMPTOM OF THE BREAKDOWN AND ANOTHER MARK OF PARAGUAY'S ISOLATION. 6.A SENSE OF NERVIOUSNESS ABOUT NICARAGUA AND BRAZIL IS OFFSET TO SOME EXTENT BY A GROWING CONVICTION AMONG INFLUENTIAL FIGURES IN THE PARAGUAYAN GOVERNMENT THAT TH U.S. IS AT LAST COMING AROUND AND THAT THE PRESSURE TO IMPROVE HUMAN RIGHTS PRACTICES IS RELENTING. THIS RAISES A BASIC QUESTION. HOW MUCH OF THIS YEAR'S IMPROVEMENT IS COSMETIC, AIMED AT DISARMING OPINION ABROAD BUT NOT ALTERING THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ASUNCI 04845 02 OF 04 071932Z THE COUNTRY? THE ANSWER MAY BE THAT IMPROVEMENT IN THE GOVERNMENT'S TREATMENT OF ITS CITIZENS IS BRINGING INEVITABLE ORGANIC CHANGE THAT MAY PROVE IRREVERSIBLE. HOW SOLID IS THE BASIC STRUCTURE BUILT UP HERE SINCE 1954? DOES IT DEPEND ENTIRELY ON ONE MAN? HOW IS THE REGIME CONSTITUTED AND HOW MIGHT IT SURVIVE IN NEW CIRCUMSTANCES? TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HUMAN RIGHTS MEANS IN PARAGUAY REQUIRES UNDERSTANDING THE STROESSNER REGIME, HOW IT CAME TO POWER AND WHY IT REMAINS THERE. 7. WHATEVER THEIR EDUCATION OR POLITICAL LEANINGS, MOST PARAGUAYANS SEEM TO HAVE A LIVELY APPRECIATION FOR THE TROUBLED HISTORY OF THEIR COUNTRY--FOR ITS INVASIONS, COUPS, CIVIL WARS--AS WELL AS FOR ITS YEARS OF ORDER AND RELATIVE PROGRESS. THE RECORDS OF THE BLOODIEST PARAGUAYAN DICTATORS --FRANCIA AND SOLANO LOPEZ--HOWEVER ABHORRENT TO OUTSIDERS, ARE NATIONAL LEGENDS AND A CAUSE OF CIVIC PRIDE TO MOST PARAGUAYANS WHO SEEM TO FEEL THAT FIRM, EVEN BRUTAL LEADERSHIP IS PREFERABLE TO DISORDER AND INTERNAL STRIFE. THIS SENTIMENT IS FOSTERED BY THE COLORADO PARTY, WHICH SEEKS TO LIKEN THE STROESSNER REGIME TO THE "NATIONAL HEROES" OF THE 19TH CENTURY AND TRIES TO TRANSFER POPULAR ALLEGIANCE THROUGH IDENTIFICATION. "CERRO CORA", THE NEW THREE-HOUR TECHNICOLOR FILM, PARAGUAY'S FIRST HOME MOVIE, IS A PAEAN TO SOLANO LOPEZ AND A JUSTIFICATION OF HIS (AND BY INFERENCE) STROESSNER'S HARSH BUT PATRIOTIC RULE. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 8. THIS ASSIDUOUS REGIME PROPAGANDA IS BASED SQUARELY ON POPULAR FEAR OF TRADITIONAL PARAGUAYAN CALAITIES-"REVOLVING-DOOR" GOVERNMENTS THAT COULD GIVE WAY TO CIVIL WAR AND FINALLY TO ABSORPTION BY BRAZIL OR ARGENTINA. THE COLORADO PARTY STRIVES TO IDENTIFY THE OPPOSITION NOT ONLY WITH TRADITIONAL THREATS BUT WITH A NEW ONE, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST SUBVERSION. ANTICOMMUNIST EXCESS HAS BEEN A MAINSTAY OF THE STROESSNER REGIME SINCE 1954. IT LEADS PARAGUAY TO IDENTIFY WITH CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ASUNCI 04845 02 OF 04 071932Z ALL OTHER RIGHT-WING GOVERNMENTS, INCLUDING NICARAGUA, SOUTH KOREA, NATIONALIST CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA. THE LAST THREE PLAY PROMINENT ROLES ON THE LOCAL DIPLOMATIC SCENE, FLANKED BY ARGENTINA, CHILE, BRAZIL AND URUGUAY. PARAGUAY'S OFFICIAL PRESS PLAYS UP THE GOP'S TIGHT LINKS TO OTHER CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENTS AND EMPHASIZES THE THEME OF JOINT ENMITY TOWARD INTERNATIONAL COMMUNISM. 9. PARAGUAY'S UNIQUE SOCIAL STRUCTURE IS THE PRODUCT OF ITS HISTORY OF CIVIL STRIFE AND FOREIGN WAR. THE COLONIAL INHERITANCE OF A VAST SUB-CLASS OF GUARANI-SPEAKING PEASANTS, LED BY A NARROW SPANISH UPPER CLASS, WAS LARGELY DESTROYED IN THE TRIPLE ALLIANCE WAR IN WHICH THE DICTATOR SOLANO LOPEZ MANAGED ALL BUT TO ANNIHILATE THE MALE POPULATION. THE SPANISH UPPER CLASS WAS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED AND THE RESULTING VACUUM WAS FILLED BY MESTIZOS WILLING TO COOPERATE WITH THE BRAZILIAN AND ARGENTINE CONQUERORS. ARGENTINES EVENTUALLY CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ASUNCI 04845 03 OF 04 071944Z ACTION ARA-15 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-05 H-01 INR-10 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 ICA-11 AID-05 PC-01 IO-14 HA-05 COME-00 EB-08 FRB-03 TRSE-00 XMB-02 OPIC-03 LAB-04 SIL-01 OMB-01 AGRE-00 /116 W ------------------040855 071953Z /43 R 071340Z NOV 78 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4473 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 3 OF 4 ASUNCION 4845 E.O. 11652: GDS CAME TO OWN A LARGE PORTION OF THE GRAZING LAND IN PARAGUAY AND CONTROLLED WHAT MODEST INDUSTRY EXISTED UNTIL THE POST-1954 ECONOMIC EXPANSION. IN THE LAST TWO DECADES, BRAZIL HAS BECOME A MAJOR ACTOR IN THE PARAGUAYAN ECONOMY AND LARGE AREAS IN NORTHEASTERN PARAGUAY ARE OCCUPIED BY BRAZILIAN SETTLERS. IN A SENSE, THE COLORADO-ARMY COMBINE ACTS AS A HOLDING COMPANY FOR THE BRAZILIAN AND ARGENTINE PROPERTY OWNERS, THOUGH ITS MIDDLEMAN POSITION ALLOWS ROOM FOR MANEUVER AND COUNTERBALANCING. THE REGIME HAS SCANT INTEREST IN DEVELOPING DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN INDUSTRY-FOR INSTANCE ALUMINUM PLANTS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS PORTION OF THE ELECTRIC ENERGY FROM ITAIPU--BUT PREFERS TO TAKE A PERCENTAGE OFF THE TOP OF LOCAL COMMERCE AND THE LION'S SHARE OF PROFITS FROM SMUGGLING AND LAND SALES. MEANWHILE, POPULAR FEARS OF FOREIGN DOMINATION OR TAKEOVER ARE ABETTED BY THE STROESSNER REGIME EVEN THOUGH IT OWN POLICIES SEEM TO FOSTER THESE ANXIETIES. 10. A WHOLE NEW ELEMENT SINCE 1976 IS THE FINANCIAL CORNUCOPIA WHICH HAS POURED FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTO THE HANDS OF BANKERS, REGIME FIGUEES AND THE GOP ITSELF. PARAGUAY'S ECONOMIC BOOM IS BOUND TO AFFECT THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL/SOCIAL EQUATION BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE OF HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ASUNCI 04845 03 OF 04 071944Z DOLLARS FROM HYDROELECTRIC CONSTRUCTION, NEW AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AND BURGEONING LOCAL CONSTRUCTION. A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF THE NEW MONEY SEEMS TO BE TRICKLING DOWN TO THE COUNTRY'S LARGELY RURAL POPULATION. ONE NEW INDEX OF PROSPERITY IS THE RETURN FLOW OF EMIGRANTS FROM ARGENTINA, WHERE HIGH PRICES AND IGHT LABOR CONDITIONS MAKE PARAGUAY LOOK LIKE A LAND OF OPPORTUNITY. WHAT IS VERY CLEAR IS THAT THE NARROW CIRCLE OF CORRUPT GENERALS AND CONTRABAND DEALERS AT THE TOP OF THE REGIME CAN HARDLY DEAL WITH THE VAST NEW SOURCES OF REVENUE AVAILABLE--PALATIAL HOMES, LUXURY AUTOMOBILES AND GARISH PARTIES ARE A NEW FEATURE IN ASUNCION. STORIES ABOUND OF GENERALS ON $10,000 A MONTH RETAINERS FROM SMUGGLERS AND ENORMOUS SUBVENTIONS TO MEMBERSOF THE PRESIDENT'S FAMILY FROM LAND SPECULATORS AND CONSTRUCTION FIRMS. UNLIKE OTHER SPANISH-AMERICAN COUNTRIES, PARAGUAY NEVER HAD A FABULOUSLY RICH OLIGARCHY SEPARATED BY A GREAT GULF FROM MOST OF THE REST OF THE PEOPLE. AS A RESULT OF THE BOOM NOW UNDERWAY, HOWEVER, COLORADO PARTY INSIDERS AND SENIOR MILITARY OFFICERS ARE BEGINNING TO CONSTITUTE A NEW MONIED CLASS THAT IS LACKING IN ANY TRADITION OR SENSE OF PUBLIC OBLIGATION. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 11. DESPITE THE FORMAL TRAPPINGS OF PARTIES AND ELECTIONS, THE STROESSNER REGIME IS IN FACT AN AUTHORITARIAN DICTATORSHIP WHOSE OVERRIDING CONCERN HAS BEEN ITS PERPETUATION IN POWER. FOR NEARLY TWENTY-FIVE YEARS, IT HAS USED WIDESPREAD REPRESSION AND INTIMIDATION TO SUPPRESS ALL CRITICISM OF THE COLORADO PARTY, THE MILITARY ELITE AND THE PRESIDENT'S OWN FAMILY. AS A RESULT OF FOREIGN PRESSURE TO END HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, THE TRADITIONAL WEAPONS OF THE REGIME--ARREST, TORTURE, ARBITRARY IMPRISONMENT, EXILE--CAN NO LONGER BE USED. LITTLE BY LITTLE, DOMESTIC CRITICISM IS GROWING, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEEKLY EDITIONS OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION OPPOSITION NEWSPAPERS. BUT EVEN THE MASS DAILIES, HOY AND ABC, WHICH WERE ONCE TIGHTLY CONTROLLED, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ASUNCI 04845 03 OF 04 071944Z NOW PRINT WORLD NEWS UNCENSORED AND SOME FAIRLY CIRTICAL EXPOSES OF LOCAL PROBLEMS, SUCH AS THE RECENT FINANCIAL SCANDAL IN THE SOCIAL SECURITY FUND, THE GAS-WATERING SCHEME, THE CHACO ROAD WIDTH FLAP AND THE LIKE. WHAT IS STILL SACROSANCT IS THE ARMY (THE NAVY IS GETTING SOME CRITICAL SCRUTINY OF LATE), THE COLORADO PARTY AND THE STROESSNER CLAN. 12. OPPOSITION LEADERS' EFFORTS TO ORGANIZE A UNITED FRONT, USING THE NAME NATIONAL ACCORD, HAVE INFURIATED THE COLORADO PARTY LEADERSHIP AND RESULTED IN A LENGTHY SERIES OF VITRIOLIC EDITORIALS IN THE OFFICIAL ORGAN, PATRIA. FOR THE GOVERNMENT AN EVEN MORE OMINOUS DEVELOPMENT IS THE THREATENED RETURN FROM EXILE IN ARGENTINA OF THE MOPOCO LEADERSHIP (POPULAR COLORADO MOVEMENT IN EXILE) WHOSE FOLLOWING IN PARAGUAY IS PROBABLY VASTLY GREATER THAN THAT OF ALL THE OPPOSITION PARTIES TOGETHER. A SYMPTOM OF THE GOVERNMENT'S EXTREME NERVOUSNESS OVER THE MOPOCO EXILES' RETURN WAS ITS BANISHMENT OF AN AGED AND LONG-RETIRED LIBERAL POLITICIAN WHO HAD ONLY THE VAGUEST TIES TO THE COLORADO OPPOSITION--CLEARLY THIS WAS A WARNING BOTH TO THE MOPOCO AND TO THE ENGINEERS OF THE NATIONAL ACCORD. 13. AS THE ECONOMIC PACE SPEEDS UP, PUMPING HUGE NEW SUMS OF MONEY INTO THE SCLEROTIC ARTERIES OF THE STROESSNER REGIME, THE INCIDENCE OF SCANDAL IS LIKELY TO RISE, ALONG WITH INFIGHTING OVER THE SPOILS. THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN REPORTS OF STRUGGLES BETWEEN MILITARY COMMANDERS OVER CONTROL OF SMUGGLING ROUTES. WHAT IS NEW IS THAT THESE INTRA-ELITE RIVALRIES AND THE RESULTING DUST-UPS, SEVERAL ENDING IN SHOOTING FRAYS, ARE REPORTED IN THE PRESS AND REGARDED AS SIGNS OF DETERIORATION IN STROESSNER'S ONCE IRON CONTROL OVER WHO GETS WHAT, WHEN AND HOW IN PARAGUAY. THIS RAISES THE CENTRAL QUESTION: WHAT DOES FATE HAVE IN STORE FOR THE LYNCHPIN OF THE LOCAL STRUCTURE--PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC, GENERAL OF THE ARMY, HONORARY PRESIDENT OF THE Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 COLORADO PARTY, ALFREDO STROESSNER, AT 66, IN OSTENSIBLE GOOD HEALTH CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ASUNCI 04845 03 OF 04 071944Z BUT AS LIABLE TO ACCIDENT OR ILLNESS AS ANY MAN HIS AGE? NO PREDICTIONS WILL BE VENTURED HERE BUT CLEARLY THIS IS ONE OF THE FUNDAMENTAL UNKNOWNS ABOUT PARAGUAY'S FUTURE EVOLUTION. SUCCESSION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT UNDISCUSSED ISSUE IN PARAGUAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PRECEPTION IS WIDESPREAD THAT THID MAY BE STROESSNER'S LAST TERM IN OFFICE. LONGTIME OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT THE REGIME IS GROOMING STROESSNER'S SON GUSTAVO, AN ARMY MAJOR AND A PLEASANT BUT LACKLUSTER YOUNG MAN, TO ACT AS A FIGUREHEAD IN CASE OF HIS FATHER'S DEATH OR RETIREMENT. THE FEAR AMONG REGIME INSIDERS IS THAT STROESSNER PADRE'S DISAPPEARANCE WILL LEAD TO A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN COMPETING FACTIONS OF THE ARMY AND THE COLORADO PARTY IN WHICH THE ARMY IS ULTIMATELY BOUND TO HAVE THE FINAL SAY. TO FORESTALL SUCH A DANGEROUS SYSTEMIC BREAKDOWN, THE THEORY GOES, GUSTAVO STROESSNER IS BEING READIED AS A FIGUREHEAD IN CASE A VACUUM IS CREATED. 14. THE CLAIM IS BEING MADE HERE AND ABROAD THAT THE PARAGUAYAN POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SYSTEM IS EVOLVING TOWARD SOMETHING FREER, MORE OPEN AND WITH GREATER EQUITY FOR THE CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ASUNCI 04845 04 OF 04 071948Z ACTION ARA-15 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-05 H-01 INR-10 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 ICA-11 AID-05 PC-01 IO-14 HA-05 COME-00 EB-08 FRB-03 TRSE-00 XMB-02 OPIC-03 LAB-04 SIL-01 OMB-01 AGRE-00 /116 W ------------------040900 071952Z /43 R 071340Z NOV 78 FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4474 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 4 OF 4 ASUNCION 4845 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 POPULATION. FOREIGN PRESSURE FOR OBSERVANCE OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND THE IMPACT OF BURGEONING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS CREDITED WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE TRENDS. IT IS, HOWEVER, A LEGITIMATE QUESTION WHETHER A REGIME BASED FROM THE START ON REPRESSION (DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF POPULAR SUPPORT OVER THE YEARS) CAN SURVIVE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE OPEN SYSTEM. THE ESSENTIAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS IS STILL IN PLACE AND HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGED BY THE BUFFETING OF THE LAST YEAR. ITS SOUNDNESS IS OPEN TO QUESTION BUT IS HAS A MONOPLY ON THE USE OF FORCE AND AN UNQUESTIONED WILLINGNESS TO USE IT. THE STRUCTURE MAY WELL DEPEND ON ONE MAN WITH NO VIABLE SUCCESSOR IN SIGHT. PRESSURES ARE CLEARLY INCREASING FROM MANY QUARTERS NOW AND STROESSNER WILL NEED TO RULE FORCEFULLY--BUT WITHOUT HIS FORMER TOOLS OF REPRESSION--TO HOLD THE SYSTEM TOGETHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF HIS TERM OF OFFICE. THE PROBLEM WITH DICTATORSHIPS IS THAT NO NUMBER TWO IS ALLOWED TO DEVELOP WHO BY FORCE OF PERSONALITY OR FORCE OF ARMS CAN STEP INTO THE JOB. THE SPECTER OF INTERNAL STRIFE ON THE ORDER OF 1947 ALARMS THE BENEFICIARIES OF STROESSNER'S LONG RULE AND OPENS THE PROSPECT OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION. PARAGUAY'S OLDEST BETE NOIRE. THE FACT IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CHANGING BUT NOT BY ANY ACT OF CHOICE OR WILL. IT MAY ULTIMATLY COLLAPSE IN RUINS BECAUSE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ASUNCI 04845 04 OF 04 071948Z THE INCUMBENT WILL DO NOTHING TO ADAPT TO NEW CIRCUMSTANCE IF IT MEANS LOOSENING HIS PRESENT GRIP ON POWER. STROESSNER MAY JUST BE RIGHT IN SEEING PARALLELS BETWEEN PARAGUAY AND NICARAGUA BUT HIS RESPONSE IS NOT TO PREPARE FOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE OPEN SOCIETY BUT TO RAIL AGAINST INTERNATIONAL COMMUNISM AND FOREIGN INTERVENTION, HOPING IN THE PROCESS TO ISOLATE PARAGUAY EVEN FURTHER FROM THE CONTAGION OF CHANGE. WHITE CONFIDENTIAL NNN Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014