Warm weather, low snowfall and thin ice are getting in the way of business as usual for Michigan’s outdoor recreation industry.

“This is the worst winter I’ve ever experienced,” said Brian Webber, standing in his sporting goods store in Essexville on a rainy 37-degree day in January.

On a normal winter morning over the last 34 years, Michigan Sportsmen Bait-Tackle would be bustling, supplying anglers with lures, shanties and propane for ice fishing on nearby Saginaw Bay.

But lower than average ice coverage across the Great Lakes this winter means ice isn’t thick enough for enthusiasts like Webber, who’s fished every winter for the last 40 years, to head out on the bay.

Add weather that’s, on average, 7 degrees warmer than usual and toss in upward of a foot less snow (and extra rain), and Webber isn’t the only one sweating this year’s mild winter.

Ski hills are closing runs, snowmobile trails aren’t being groomed, festivals are changing plans and business is down at bars that rely on winter enthusiasts. Some fear that extreme weather, prompted by climate change, could be the new normal.

“There’s a clear trend toward less consistency in winter,” said Brad Garmon, director of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources’ Office of Outdoor Recreation Industry. Current climate “trends are going to make it harder to predict that we’ll have solid snows.”

Outdoor recreation contributes some $10 billion annually Michigan’s economy, according to federal statistics, with $73 million of that coming from skiing, snowmobiling and other snow activities. Nationally, outdoor recreation generates nearly $27 billion in sales, according to the Outdoor Industries Association trade group.

Most winter mornings, Webber said he’d have “40 to 50 guys through” his store. On a recent day, when speaking to Bridge, he had three.

“The number of people coming in for ice fishing is one thing, but there’s been a decline in guys going snowmobiling – any activity, really. The only benefit this winter has given anybody is a break on their heating bill,” he said.

“If we don’t have a good spring it may well be [my last winter in business].”