Toronto police don’t want to talk about this, even though the numbers reflect positively on them.

Homicides are down, and down substantially.

This no longer seems a city living in fear as it was in 2005 when gang warfare spilled out into the streets in the “summer of the gun.”

The city’s 32nd homicide occurred on Tuesday, compared to 38 at this time last year.

With only four months to go in 2011, Toronto is on pace to record its lowest homicide total since 1999 when there were 47 slayings.

After rising through the early part of the decade and peaking at 86 murders in 2007, rates have fallen for three straight years and may drop again by year end.

There were 70 homicides in 2008, 63 in 2009 and 61 in 2010.

Homicide detectives won’t talk about the trend for fear of prematurely publicizing statistics that may jump.

“We’re not going to discuss this,” Const. Wendy Drummond said, adding the year is not over.

When asked why, she said: “It’s not our style.”

A police source said homicide detectives don’t like to crow about statistics because when it comes to murder there is no definable pattern.

“Next year we could have 80,” the source said.

However, the fact is homicides are down across most of North America. One theory put forth by sociologists is that society is aging and old people don’t commit as many murders as the young.

Although Toronto police are mum on the subject, Windsor doesn’t mind doing a little bragging.

Deputy Chief Jerome Brannagan has trumpeted the fact that Windsor, which averages about five homicides a year, had none in both 2010 and — so far — in 2011.

In Toronto, a police source credits TAVIS (Toronto Anti-Violence Intervention Strategy) and the guns and gangs task force with taking gang leaders and guns off the streets.

The source added that judges are getting tougher in sentencing and have put away many gang leaders for a long time.

But are stiffer sentences really behind the falling homicide rates? One U.S. analyst seems to make that link.

John Roman, director of the District of Columbia Crime Police Institute, which has spent years studying U.S. trends, told The Guardian recently that stiff jail sentences remove “a lot of potential offenders from the street.

“I don’t think that’s very popular in many circles, but it’s hard to argue with,” he told the newspaper.

Councillor Michael Thompson, vice-chair of the Toronto Police Services Board, said although strong enforcement may be one reason for the decline here, broader factors are at play.

Youth programs, which operate under the media radar, have been successful in steering people away from gangs and into more productive pursuits, Thompson said.

Homicide rate declines come at a time when the Toronto police operating budget has climbed to almost $1 billion and the federal government has announced it will spend $155 million to expand prisons in Ontario and Quebec.

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Thompson cautions against putting too much money into enforcement when homicides are dropping.

“We need to consider all the different factors,” he said. “We need to be mindful of an appropriate balance. I think you can’t attribute it exclusively to policing. It’s a blend of community involvement, economic opportunities, it’s about education, it’s about families. Enforcement is the piece you bring in last.”

Homicides in Toronto: 10-year snapshot

2011: 32 (as of Aug. 23)

2010: 61

2009: 63

2008: 70

2007: 86

2006: 70

2005: 80

2004: 64

2003: 66

2002: 62

2001: 61