LeBron James has left the Eastern Conference. And while his departure will certainly have a bigger impact on whoever the (new) Eastern Conference champion is, it will also be greatly felt at the 2019 NBA All-Star game in Charlotte. This upcoming season represents the first fairly reasonable chance for Lauri Markkanen to make his debut as an NBA All-Star.

With James out of the east, there is one starting frontcourt spot guaranteed to be free. But obviously, the Cavaliers will be a worse team than last year and that could greatly effect Kevin Love’s chances of making his third straight All-Star game. And while the Cleveland faithful would likely do their part to get Love in, there is no guarantee that he will be a part of the team when the NBA season rolls back around.

So here are the numbers that lay out why Markkanen could see the All-Star game sooner than expected.

+4

Per Basketball-reference.com, the Bulls were expected to win 23 games last year. And they won 27 games in total, outperforming their expected win-loss record by four games (hence the +4). So regardless of Markkanen’s numbers, the Bulls will likely need to be on pace to win more games by the All-Star break to give him a serious chance. But Andre Drummond, Kristaps Prorzingis and Kemba Walker all made the All-Star squad though their teams missed out on the playoffs.

Drummond’s Pistons had 39 wins, Walker’s Hornets had 36 wins and the Porzingis-led Knicks had 29 wins. The Knicks were dealing with a low-upside roster following Porzingis tearing his left ACL on February 6, but even so, the fact that all three of these players made the All-Star team with less than 40 wins on the year show that individual performance certainly plays a bigger role. And speaking of individual performance….

15.2 points

The above number was Markkanen’s points per game average for the 2017-18 season. A figure that was good enough to be second on the Bulls behind Zach LaVine. If Markkanen takes even a small leap, the results could be magnificent. Porzingis—who he is often favorably compared to—went from 14.3 points per game his rookie year, to 18.1 points per game his second season in the league. And the main reason was he became more comfortable with the NBA 3-point line, and his role as the Knicks franchise player. Here is to hoping Markkanen can do the same, though he has clearly shown that he has a handle on NBA 3-pointers. And with the Finnish national team, he has shown that he is capable of dominating the scoring without dominating the touches. But speaking of touches….

0.561

During the 2017-18 season Markkanen scored 0.561 points per post touch according to NBA.com. This is likely the number that led to Fred Hoiberg going to Bobby Portis and Robin Lopez more as post up options. Markkanen actually scored at a better rate from the post than Lopez (0.410 points per post possession). But Hoiberg’s offense gets good action from high/low sets, and Lopez is the obvious option to be down low since—despite his best efforts—he is not a floor spacer. But if rookie Wendell Carter’s shooting translates to the NBA (career 41.3 percent from 3-point range in college), Hoiberg will be able to place Markkanen in the low post more, with much better spacing around him. If his point per post touch increase, he will be scoring at an All-Star caliber rate, similar to players like Joel Embiid (0.655) and Love (0.633).

21.9 percent

The above number was Markkanen’s usage rate in his rookie season. It was lower than the usage rate of Kris Dunn (24.7 percent) and LaVine (29.5 percent). This is not extremely unusual, as Dunn is the team’s best playmaker. But LaVine is a player who needs the ball in his hands as well to flourish. And assuming that he returns to the Bulls, the biggest challenge for Hoiberg will be getting Markkanen’s usage rate to a much higher level while simultaneously not alienating LaVine and/or Dunn. Porzingis reached a usage rate of 31 percent this year, but on a roster with nowhere near the playmaking depth of the Bulls. A figure somewhere between 25 to 28 percent would be ideal, because with Markkanen’s efficient game, a 4 percent bump in usage would be the only thing needed to get him scoring in the range of 18-to-20 points per game.