Inside the Investment Committee #2: Long bonds, short the Euro

Fund manager Alex Gurevich is in the hot seat this month, pitching his “perfect trade” from 2014 long bonds and short the Euro. Alex explains why he believes this was truly a ‘perfect’ can’t lose trade, then we translate to current markets Why Alex believes there was no sane reason with any view to have been short the U.S. 10yr Treasury in 2014

The perfect trade: Long bonds and short the Euro, and why it worked in 2014

Julian and Juliette’s reactions to the trade itself and to the process question of whether ‘perfect trades’ really exist

Translating this to today’s markets, why Julian and Alex no longer agree completely on bond market outlook

Juliette teases us with a preview of a trade she got WRONG, which we’ll feature in Episode #3 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s). Click here to register for access to supporting materials. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File ( 36.57 MB ) . Click to Play Now!



Julian Brigden

Julian Brigden is the Co-Founder and President of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners. Julian has over 25 years of experience in financial markets and has held positions in market and policy focused consulting to hedge funds and banks as well as in FICC sales. Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.

As a global macro strategist, and not a journalist or economist by training, Julian’s primary focus is exploiting trading opportunities inherent in macroeconomic and policy related developments. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets which are vital to a vast array of investment decision makers. Julian has been featured on Bloomberg, CNBC, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and in Barron’s among other for the firm's research on EM, liquidity, QE, Bubbles, and global Fx.

Juliette Declercq

JDI research focuses on providing timely and exclusively trade-driven market strategy on global assets and risk (FX, EM, Fixed Income, commodities and equities). Juliette Declercq is the main analyst. With a strong macroeconomic background and 17 years of experience in strategy and proprietary trading (JPMorgan & Morgan Stanley and at 2 hedge funds Idalion and Stone Milliner), Juliette has spent most of her career advising some of today’s most successful portfolio managers. Juliette Declercq has a proven ability to turn a vast amount of information (macro, geopolitical, technical, statistical and psychology analysis) into high impact & good risk reward trade ideas (cross-product and cross-asset). Whilst being aware of all macro trends and studying them in depth, Juliette believes that psychology plays as big a part in driving asset prices in the time frame hedge fund portfolio managers are pressured to deliver returns nowadays. As such, she spends as much time gauging consensus and the likely way it will swing from one narrative to the other than on the macro story itself. This process allows for consistent and precise market timing. JDI research provides regular roadmaps for traders to navigate markets successfully and timely updates on game changers. The service does not stop at the regular roadmap, we also offer a daily and customised presence to premium clients to ensure continuous and timely thoughts and trade ideas to portfolio managers.

Alex Gurevich

Alex Gurevich is Founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments. He has been involved in trading for over 20 years and is considered one of the world’s preeminent macro traders. He has held various roles on Wall Street which included managing derivative franchise businesses and running the global macro portfolio at JP Morgan. More recently, Alex has been managing his personal wealth through his family office. He is author of The Next Perfect Trade, which thoughtfully articulates his portfolio strategy and was published in the fall of 2015. Alex was born and raised in St. Petersburg, Russia and earned his PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago.