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We are a couple weeks into Spring Training and still a month from the start of the season, so it is not too early to speculate on the final roster. With all the questions about our new lord and savior Brock Stassi in my Good Phight Mailbag, I decided to revisit the 40 man roster and how it dictates the roster decisions. My goal here is not to predict a final roster, but to outline the consequences to decisions.

I see 22 spots locked up on the Phillies 25 man roster right now.

Starting Lineup (8): Rupp, Joseph, Hernandez, Galvis, Franco, Kendrick, Herrera, Saunders

Bench (3): Knapp, Altherr, Blanco

I don’t know if Knapp really is a better option than Hannigan, but to take the veteran the Phillies would need to waive a player and force Knapp into a bad place in AAA. Altherr is the only player other than Herrera who can play center field.

Starters (5): Hellickson, Eickhoff, Buchholz, Nola, Velasquez

Relievers (6): Neris, Gomez, Benoit, Ramos, Neshek, Rodriguez

Ramos has been better than anyone who could beat him out for a spot. While Burnett and Cesar Ramos could argue they are equal to Joely Rodriguez, the Phillies would essentially have to waive Rodriguez if he didn’t make the team and that isn’t worth it for a journeyman spot.

Beyond the major league roster there are some locks to go to the minors. The first category is the elite level guys who just don’t have room in the majors right now. The other is the newly added players, as none of them have done anything in the past few weeks to have the Phillies decide to expose them to waivers if they weren’t going to expose them to the Rule 5 draft.

Veteran 40 maners (4): Thompson, Eflin, Alfaro, Quinn

New 40 maners (10): Appel, Anderson, E. Garcia, Lively, Pinto, Pivetta, Tirado, Valentin, Cozens, Williams

Now if you have done the math that is 36 spots on the 40 man roster locked up and 3 spots on the major league roster to be filled. That leaves these guys.

The Others: L. Garcia, Asher, Morgan, Goeddel

I think the Phillies have Asher a step above the other 3, but I have him over the locks because he is the most expendable of the players who have been around a while. So now we have the spots to fill on the major league roster. Luckily enough, the three bench players already locked in give us a C, SS, and CF as well as two switch hitters and a righty bat, so the two bench players can come from any positions. As for the bullpen, a lefty would get more priority but it doesn’t look like it needs to be a lefty. So here are the contenders (*40 man roster)

Hitters: Hannigan, Florimon, Gomez, Stassi, Coghlan, Nava, Perkins, Valentin*

Pitchers: Morgan*, Asher*, Garcia*, Beato, Mariot, Ramos, Murray, Burnett

We already know the Phillies need to clear 1 spot to complete the major league bench, and I feel safe saying that spot is Luis Garcia’s. So let’s lay out some scenarios.

Do No Harm:

In: Valentin, Stassi/Coghlan/other, Morgan/Asher

Out: L. Garcia

If the Phillies only want to waive one player they have take Jesmuel Valentin on their bench and carry one of the 40 man pitchers as a reliever. It is not ideal for Valentin’s development or putting the best Phillies team on the field, but Valentin has hit enough and has the defensive flexibility to make it justifiable. The modified version of this plan is to waive Morgan for a left handed reliever.

I am Sorry Tyler Goeddel:

In: Coghlan, Stassi/other, Morgan/Asher

Out: L. Garcia, Goeddel

Goeddel needs a year in AAA, but with the Phillies outfield depth and his poor spring, he could find himself on the outside looking in. It is almost certain he would be claimed on waivers given that he has 3 options still remaining, so I see a trade for cash considerations happening. Once again you could swap Morgan out for a non-roster lefty.

Who Needs Two Lefties?:

In: Coghlan, Stassi/other, Asher

Out: L. Garcia, Morgan

The Phillies get to keep Tyler Goeddel to evaluate in AAA. The cost is that they only get one major league lefty and Alec Asher is the long man. It isn’t what Mackanin is looking for, but it might be the best management of resources.

Burn It All Down:

In: Coghlan, Stassi/other, Ramos/Burnett

Out: L. Garcia, 2 of Goeddel/Asher/Morgan

The Phillies just waive three players and take a team north with some age on it. The likely survivor here is probably Asher, though he has the highest chance of being flipped for something that is not horrid and not on a 40 man roster.

In the end the math is simple, but the decision may not be. If someone is hurt short term then the roster becomes near unworkable.