Statements were released today by both IS and AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) claiming individually conducted operations were happening on the same front in Al-Bayda governorate, Yemen. Both attacks also occurred in the same afternoon. While there were no declarations of the attacks being coordinated together, some analysts are calling this a bluff.



“I expect there to be a greater coordination, a kind of solidarity in adversity, and a greater focus on the shared goal of battling Houthis.” Dr Elisabeth Kendall - Pembroke college, Oxford – told The Region. The Critical threats project – founded by the American Enterprise Institute – also claims that, since breaking an al Houthi-Saleh siege on tribal areas in late July, IS and AQAP may be on course to win popular support from local tribes. This threat especially strong, with the welfare and propaganda programs being conducted by both organizations.



AQAP and IS seem to be working together in spite of bitter rivalry. “It is when IS has blown up targets with high civilian casualties (especially mosques) that AQAP has most strongly condemned ISY (Islamic State in Yemen).” Said Kendall. And while IS has also been critical of “weak implementation of Shari’a” law in the AQAP stronghold of Mukalla, there are some indications that their differences might be settled.



In a security review, Kendall has warned against counter-productive military operations conducted by the US and the Saudi-led coalition in the region. “The ideas that underpin [AQAP’s] appeal [cannot] be bombed into oblivion. Quite the reverse: the ongoing conflict in Yemen means that the appeal of militant Islamist extremist groups like AQAP and, to a lesser extent IS, is likely to increase.” If the war continues unabated, the influence of IS and other radical islamist groups are only set to grow.



As the number of reports of IS fighters arriving to Al-Bayda from North Africa and Syria continues to increase, analysts are now speculating that IS seeks not to compete, but compliment the AQAP. The fact that both groups have not clashed with each other seems to indicate that they at least tolerate each other’s existence in the region.



But it wasn’t necessarily the case that the historic rivalry between the two groups wouldn’t spill onto Yemen. As senior leaders in AQAP have been targeted by drone strikes, and as IS Yemeni fighters returning from Iraq and Yemen have been able to make use of their tribal connections, the group has been able to win some influence from AQAP in Al-Bayda.. And with the continued bombardment of the Saudi-led coalition, coupled with the brutalities committed by Houthi rebels, both groups may have found a common enemy.



“The longer the current war is allowed to drag on and regional voices and identities in Yemen remain unheeded, the more fertile the breeding ground for militant jihad and the greater the challenge to counter-terrorism efforts” argues Kendall.