This will be a difficult week for the world’s business and financial communities. On a very long view, the outcome of the presidential election may not be that important, even if that sounds strange right now when it seems very important indeed. The US economy will remain the most inventive, the most innovative and indeed the world’s largest for another decade at least.

But the vote, and more particularly the reaction to it, will tell us a lot about the direction of the US economy over the next five years, and here’s what I shall be looking for.

First, the presidential vote itself. Is it clear? Is there a danger that Donald Trump might win the popular vote but not the electoral college? That would be the worst outcome of all, for much of America – and not just the “fly-over states” as they are disparagingly called by the US elite – would be outraged. An outraged country would be a dreadful inheritance for a new president.

Second, the make-up of Congress. This is not just a question of which party controls the two houses, though of course that matters. It is who will be the dominant politicians, particularly in the House. The issue here is whether Congress will be prepared to work, at least to some extent, with the new administration. The system was designed to be obstructive, with the famous checks and balances, but there is a difference between constructive opposition and cussed blocking of everything.

Donald Trump's most controversial quotes Show all 14 1 /14 Donald Trump's most controversial quotes Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Isis: "Some of the candidates, they went in and didn’t know the air conditioner didn’t work and sweated like dogs, and they didn’t know the room was too big because they didn’t have anybody there. How are they going to beat ISIS?" Getty Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On immigration: "I will build a great wall — and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me —and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words." Reuters Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Free Trade: "Free trade is terrible. Free trade can be wonderful if you have smart people. But we have stupid people." PAUL J. RICHARDS | AFP | Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Mexicans: "When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists." Getty Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On China: "I just sold an apartment for $15 million to somebody from China. Am I supposed to dislike them?... I love China. The biggest bank in the world is from China. You know where their United States headquarters is located? In this building, in Trump Tower." Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On work: "If you're interested in 'balancing' work and pleasure, stop trying to balance them. Instead make your work more pleasurable." AP Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On success: "What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate." Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On life: "Everything in life is luck." AFP Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On ambition: "You have to think anyway, so why not think big?" Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On his opponents: "Bush is totally in favour of Common Core. I don't see how he can possibly get the nomination. He's weak on immigration. He's in favour of Common Core. How the hell can you vote for this guy? You just can't do it." Reuters Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Obamacare: "You have to be hit by a tractor, literally, a tractor, to use it, because the deductibles are so high. It's virtually useless. And remember the $5 billion web site?... I have so many web sites, I have them all over the place. I hire people, they do a web site. It costs me $3." Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Barack Obama: "Obama is going to be out playing golf. He might be on one of my courses. I would invite him. I have the best courses in the world. I have one right next to the White House." PA Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On himself: "Love him or hate him, Trump is a man who is certain about what he wants and sets out to get it, no holds barred. Women find his power almost as much of a turn-on as his money." Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On America: "The American Dream is dead. But if I get elected president I will bring it back bigger and better and stronger than ever before and we will make America great again." GETTY

Third, how negative will the market reaction be by the end of the week? To phrase it in that way may seem odd, but it is hard to see much of a positive reaction, whatever the outcome. Market commentators have tried to “game” the different results, and tried to forecast how markets would react to each: a Trump victory would be bad for equities and for the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar – and so on. I don’t think this is a very helpful approach, simply because we don’t know how markets react in these circumstances. Look at the Brexit vote. How many people saw zero impact on the economy but a huge hit to the pound?

Why is it important to consider the end of the week, rather than Wednesday morning? Because the first reaction to anything is usually wrong. Simple as that.

Next, look at foreign reaction, particularly from China. Russia matters to some extent and a Clinton victory would be seen very negatively. But China matters more because of its trade relationship with the US. Don’t expect any sudden reaction but wait a few days (as with the markets) and listen to when the Chinese press and broadcasters say. I expect some contempt whatever the outcome, but detail will be the key.

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Finally, look at the gold price. Why? Because it indicates fear. There is an index in Chicago, dubbed the fear index, which measures volatility, but the gold price is core. Are people round the world scared by the outcome? If the answer is yes, they will buy gold. If not, they will sell it.