Ten years ago, on an unusually frosty Phoenix morning, the Valley's most important dignitaries unveiled one of the most expensive and controversial taxpayer-funded projects in Arizona history.

Silver train cars dotted 20 miles of light-rail tracks across Phoenix, Tempe and Mesa — an unnatural sight in a sprawling, car-dependent, Western metro area like Phoenix.

Valley Metro Rail, with a $1.4 billion initial price tag, would change everything about the Valley, its supporters promised the thousands who waited hours to ride the rail on opening day.

It undoubtedly has changed transportation options and the course of development — though not everyone supports the transformation.

Valley Metro CEO Scott Smith offered an ominous warning at a ceremony earlier this month to mark light rail's first decade.

"There are dark clouds on the horizon," he said.

Mixed results

Ridership:

The rail system almost immediately exceeded its target ridership numbers, and today has an average weekday ridership of about 50,000, a number Valley Metro didn't expect to reach until 2020.

a number Valley Metro didn't expect to reach until 2020. But during the past fiscal year, light-rail ridership slipped by about 725,000 riders.

Investment:

Valley Metro estimates $11 billion in private and public investment has sprouted within a half mile of the light-rail line since 2008.

$11 billion in private and public investment has sprouted within a half mile of the light-rail line since 2008. But some experts say a less-expensive public investment could have spurred similar results.

Side effects:

Valley leaders say light rail is responsible for luring the Super Bowl, NCAA Final Four and other mega-events.

But along 19th Avenue, the newest stretch of light rail in Phoenix, neighbors say the rail has also lured crime. Police calls near the new light-rail platforms increased 37 percent after the rail system opened.

Expansion:

It took the Valley nearly 20 years to persuade voters to support a mass transit system like light rail. Today, there's a dedicated tax base to fund dozens of additional miles of light rail in the next several decades.

Today, there's a dedicated tax base to fund dozens of additional miles of light rail in the next several decades. But, 10 years after light rail changed the landscape of metro Phoenix, its future is more unclear than ever as a group of Phoenix residents attempt to halt any further expansion.

Impressive or depressive?

After attending college in Buffalo, Caitlin Waters, 27, moved to Phoenix for a marketing internship in 2013.

She's never owned a car.

Caitlin Waters, a downtown Phoenix resident, on light rail I've been super impressed with it. It's basically all I take. Quote icon

There was no need to bring one when she moved, because her time in Phoenix was supposed to be temporary and the company was near light rail at Thomas Road and Central Avenue.

After four months, the company offered Waters a full-time job. Already used to the Valley's public transportation system, she decided to continue her car-less lifestyle.

Over the past five years, she's lived in uptown Phoenix, Old Town Scottsdale and, about a year ago, she moved downtown.

Waters said the bus system "got really old really fast" when she lived in Scottsdale, but light rail has "been a blessing."

"I've been super impressed with it. It's basically all I take," she said.

The Valley Metro rail system has an average weekday ridership of about 50,000, a number Valley Metro didn't expect to reach until 2020. But in the past year, light-rail ridership slipped by about 725,000 riders. Nick Oza/The Republic

But not everyone's impressed. Real and perceived safety concerns have dominated conversation about the rail system, particularly at the ends of the line in northwest Phoenix and downtown Mesa.

Neighbors near 19th Avenue say the rail system has disrupted the character of their community.

"Since the light rail came in, it's brought a lot more people into this area that don't belong in this area, that don't have any reason for being in this area, " neighborhood activist Linda Colino told The Republic earlier this year.

Antonios Xanthoudakis owns Haven Burgers just east of the current end of light rail and directly facing the under-construction Gilbert Road extension in Mesa.

Susan Gudino, a south Phoenix resident Light rail costs too much and gives too little. Quote icon

Xanthoudakis said rather than bringing customers to his restaurant, the light rail is shuttling transients to the area, which has hurt his business.

“I would be very surprised if you find anyone from here to Gilbert Road that will tell you that it helped. I would be very surprised if you found anyone who would give this an A plus, even a B, even a C,” he said.

Complaints like his are part of the reason a group of south Phoenix residents are trying to kill all future light-rail expansions. They've turned in signatures to put rail back on the ballot and let voters decide on its long-term future.

"Light rail costs too much and gives too little," south Phoenix resident Susan Gudino said.

Getting to light rail

The first iteration of light rail, dreamed up in the 1980s, was an even grander and pricier plan called ValTrans.

The project would have connected the entire Valley with 100 miles of elevated tracks.

Voters across Maricopa County defeated the $8 billion proposal by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio in 1989, sending transit proponents back to the drawing board.

Without a regional transit tax, each city was left to come up with money on its own. Tempe voters passed a half-cent sales tax for buses and light rail in 1996, putting pressure on Phoenix to catch up with the East Valley suburb.

Phoenix had two failed transit initiatives, with one losing by 22 votes.

But in 2000, Phoenix voters approved a 0.4 percent sales tax to fund light rail and other public transportation projects.

Four years later, Maricopa County voters extended a countywide half-cent transportation tax, about a third of which has gone toward light rail and other public transportation projects.

With Phoenix and Tempe on board, Mesa had to decide whether it would fund the end of the line to the East.

Years earlier, the conservative suburb passed a Quality of Life tax, which included a small set-aside for public transportation, but the city had not committed to use it for light rail.

Former Mesa Mayor Keno Hawker persuaded the council to pay to bring 1 mile of light rail into the city so future politicians could decide whether to extend it further.

"I'm pretty conservative and typically for government programs I'm not a big backer, but it was pretty well understood that Phoenix and Tempe were building the light rail and if Mesa did not join, it was going to stop two miles from Mesa's border in Tempe," Hawker said.

Reflecting today, Hawker said "it did prove out to be positive."

Growing the line

The 20-mile starter line, which opened Dec. 27, 2008, ran from Phoenix's Christown Mall in the west to Main Street and Sycamore Drive in Mesa.

The starter line has been extended twice — 3.1 miles through downtown Mesa along Main Street to Mesa Drive in 2015 and 3.2 miles in Phoenix to 19th Avenue and Dunlap Road in 2016.

The automated PHX Sky Train system now connects the 44th Street and Washington Street light-rail stop to Terminal 3 and Terminal 4. Tom Tingle/The Republic

The first phase of the PHX Sky Train opened in 2013 to connect the light-rail system to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. The automated train system now connects the 44th Street and Washington Street light-rail stop to Terminal 3 and Terminal 4. A 2.5-mile extension is underway to connect to the airport's rental car facility.

Another Mesa extension to Gilbert Road is slated to open this spring.

The original Phoenix tax passed in 2000 was supposed to generate enough money to fund 24 miles of light rail by 2016, but the city only was able to fund 17 miles because sales-tax revenue fell short of estimates.

So in 2015, Phoenix voters approved a $31.5 billion transportation plan, which extended and increased the 2000 transit tax to 0.7 percent.

The plan calls for six light-rail extensions during the 35-year plan:

South Central: Connecting the current line to Baseline Road via Central Avenue.

Capitol/Interstate 10 West: Connecting current line to the state Capitol and 79th Avenue park and ride.

Northwest Phase II: Connecting current northwest line to Metrocenter Mall.

ASU West: Connecting Metrocenter Mall to Arizona State University's West Campus.

West Phoenix/Camelback: Connecting the current line to Grand Canyon University and 43rd Avenue and Camelback Road.

Northeast: Connecting current line to Paradise Valley Mall.

The first extension, South Central, is scheduled to begin construction next year — unless a group of Phoenix residents, who are trying to refer light rail back to the ballot, succeed in their quest to kill all future rail expansion.

Phoenix light-rail facts you (probably) don't know It has been 10 years since light rail came to Phoenix. Here are a few things you probably didn't know about the impact light rail has had on the area. Will Flannigan, azcentral

Is light rail a success?

Gauging light rail's success depends on what one expected from it. People's goals varied, but included access to transportation, to spur development and to attain status as an urban area.

1. Light rail as a transportation system

Valley Metro Rail has more riders per mile than most light-rail systems in the country, but ridership appears to be leveling out, according to recent data. The 26-mile system also is tiny in comparison to most systems and still doesn't connect to most corners of the sprawling Phoenix area.

Experts say light rail is pricey for the ridership it has garnered.

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In addition to the $2 billion construction cost of the existing line, federal, state and local tax dollars subsidize about 72 percent of the light rail's $43 million annual operation cost.

David King, a professor at ASU's School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, said the same ridership numbers could have been achieved with a "robust bus system" — and it would have been faster and cost less taxpayer money.

Daily ridership averaged 34,809 per day in light rail's first full year in 2009. That's about 12.7 million annual trips.

Ridership reached its highest point between July 2016 and June 2017 with about 16.5 million trips.

It dropped to about 15.8 million trips between July 2017 and June 2018. That breaks down to about 50,009 daily riders on weekdays, 39,892 daily riders on Saturdays and 30,558 daily ridership on Sundays.

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Valley Metro spokeswoman Susan Tierney said ridership is "leveling out" after nearly a decade of steady growth. She said decreased ASU ridership, lower gas prices, higher employment and perception issues all impact ridership.

Valley Metro recently launched a new code of conduct and educational campaign to try to curb disruptive behavior and decrease negative perceptions.

Ridership numbers also were inflated in 2017 by mega-events such as the Lost Lake Festival and Final Four, which drew thousands of out-of-towners and nontraditional light-rail users.

An interview with Valley Metro CEO Scott Smith We caught up with the Valley Metro CEO to ask him questions about light rail and its future. Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, The Republic | azcentral.com

Smith said Valley Metro Rail is "one of the most successful" light-rail systems by ridership.

"We have more riders per mile than most other light-rail systems in the country, especially Western light-rail systems. So from that standpoint, Metro Rail has not only surpassed expectations locally, but it’s surpassed expectations nationally," Smith said.

Valley Metro Rail was ranked the nation's 13th busiest light-rail system in 2017, according to the American Public Transportation Association.

Several smaller Western cities preceded Phoenix, including Salt Lake City, Denver, Dallas and San Diego. These systems are much larger than metro Phoenix's 26-mile line.

Mesa Mayor John Giles said there's been more than $200 million in investment in new business and housing along the stretch of light rail in Mesa. David Wallace/The Republic

2. Light rail as a development tool

Within a half-mile of the light rail, private and public developers have invested $11 billion and employers have created 35,000 new jobs since the system opened, according to Valley Metro.

King said that there are other, less expensive, ways to achieve the transportation goals light rail has achieved, but it's unlikely that the indirect effects — job growth, increased land values and skyrocketing development — could have been reached without light rail.

The current and former leaders of Phoenix, Tempe and Mesa have credited light rail with attracting high-wage jobs, unique retailers and urban-style apartments and condos.

Each city has experienced substantial growth and transformation in the past 10 years. Although light rail cannot be directly connected to all of the new developments in the past decade, several significant projects have credited light rail for their location decisions:

The downtown Phoenix location of ASU sprung up as the light rail was finishing construction. ASU President Michael Crow told The Republic earlier this year that light rail was important for the university's decision to come downtown because it provided a backbone. The rail connects the downtown and Tempe campuses.

sprung up as the light rail was finishing construction. ASU President Michael Crow told The Republic earlier this year that light rail was important for the university's decision to come downtown because it provided a backbone. The rail connects the downtown and Tempe campuses. Tempe Mayor Mitchell credited light rail with attracting development along the Apache Boulevard corridor and Tempe Town Lake, including the iconic 2 million-square-foot State Farm campus .

. Mesa Mayor John Giles said there's been more than $240 million in investment in new business and housing along the stretch of light rail in Mesa, including Mesa Artspace Lofts and Rancho Del Sol Apartments .

. Phoenix Mayor Thelda Williams said Nebraska-based Creighton University — which announced earlier this year that it will open a $100 million, four-year medical school in the old Park Central Mall property — chose its location because of the proximity to light rail.

"There are benefits we have reaped beyond just ridership," Williams said.

Williams was one of several local leaders who said the tangential benefits of light rail — mainly the spur in development — have outweighed the transportation benefits.

But using rail as an economic development tool is controversial, according to King.

He said cities are more apt to loosen development regulations or offer subsidies for projects around light rail.

Therefore, developers want to build around the light rail, not necessarily because their tenants will use the transit system, but because the city has sent a signal that it will invest in that area.

King said these development achievements may be reachable through other, less expensive investments.

He used a public park as an example. If a city were to invest in a large park and then loosen development regulations around the park, the city likely would see an increase in development in that area.

"How else could we possibly achieve those development goals? Are there ways that we could do that cheaper?" King said.

Former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton says light rail not only changed the way outsiders think about Phoenix, but it made Valley residents feel differently about their cities. Nick Oza/The Republic

3. Light rail gave metro Phoenix 'big time' status

Light rail added a uniquely urban element to the Phoenix area, which was uncommon in the sprawling region.

Nearly every local leader and expert interviewed by The Republic said the region decided to invest in a rail system nearly 20 years ago to catapult Phoenix into the league of "big time" cities.

Phoenix Mayor Thelda Williams It put us in a different category of major cities. All major cities have a rail system to transport people. It turned us into a real metropolis. Quote icon

"Look at all the great cities of the world," Congressman-elect and former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton said. "All of the greatest cities have many transportation options."

King said in the 1990s and early 2000s, every Western U.S. city was clamoring for light rail.

"It was about competing (between) cities across the country," King said.

The Super Bowl and NCAA Final Four selection committees only considered cities with mass-transit options, Williams said.

"It put us in a different category of major cities. All major cities have a rail system to transport people," Williams said. "It turned us into a real metropolis."

Stanton said it not only changed the way outsiders think about Phoenix, but it made Valley residents feel differently about their cities.

"It has changed the built environment of Phoenix to make us a much more urban community, which in so many ways changes the way Phoenicians feel about themselves," Stanton said.

Nearly every local leader and expert interviewed by The Republic said the region decided to invest in a rail system nearly 20 years ago to catapult Phoenix into the league of "big time" cities. Nick Oza/The Republic

Light rail 'under attack'

As Valley Metro's Smith and other local leaders gathered to celebrate light rail's 10-year anniversary earlier this month, they could not ignore the possibility that light rail may be nearing the end of the line.

"The reality is that this system, and this vision and this dream is under attack right now and is at risk — at serious risk," Smith said.

Even as Valley leaders applaud all that light rail has brought to cities over the past 10 years, opposition is rising among some who think it's come at too great a cost. David Wallace/The Republic

Days earlier, a vocal opposition group, dubbed "Building a Better Phoenix," submitted 40,000 signatures for an initiative to put Phoenix light rail spending back on the ballot and allow voters to decide if rail expansion should continue.

The initiative needs 20,510 verified signatures to qualify for the ballot. If the group is successful, the money allocated for light rail under the 2015 transportation tax will divert to other transportation projects such as street repaving and additional buses.

"Ending the expansion of light rail will free up billions that can be spent on fixing streets and sidewalks, expanding bus and Dial-a-Ride services, improve lighting and other much-needed transportation projects," south Phoenix business owner Rachel Palopoli said at a rally before turning in the signatures.

Rachel Palopoli, a south Phoenix business owner, at a rally before her light-rail opposition group turned in 40,000 signatures for an initiative to put Phoenix light rail spending back on the ballot Ending the expansion of light rail will free up billions that can be spent on fixing streets and sidewalks, expanding bus and Dial-a-Ride services, improve lighting and other much-needed transportation projects. Quote icon

Building a Better Phoenix was born amid controversy over the planned south Phoenix light rail extension, which would narrow Central Avenue to two lanes.

Business owners along Central Avenue fear shrinking lanes will hurt business and residents worry it will worsen traffic congestion.

The project is scheduled to begin construction next year. Other projects are in a holding pattern as the initiative winds through the process.

Already, the Phoenix City Council voted to delay, and likely kill, the light-rail extension to Paradise Valley Mall. Instead the city will use the money for street pavement and repairs.

The original line has been extended twice — 3.1 miles through downtown Mesa in 2015 and 3.2 miles in Phoenix to 19th Avenue and Dunlap Road in 2016. Valley Metro

Support pulled in some cities

The Building a Better Phoenix initiative only would affect Phoenix light-rail funding — but other Valley cities have already shut out the possibility of rail or are struggling to find the funds to continue development.

The Glendale City Council quashed plans to extend light rail west from Metrocenter Mall in Phoenix toward downtown Glendale last year.

Voters there had signaled their support for the project years ago by approving a transportation-related sales tax, and Valley Metro had spent years — and $2.9 million — studying the line.

But Glendale leaders said they weren’t convinced the benefits would outweigh the costs, and that it was the right way to spend the city’s limited transportation funds.

The $72.6 million of regional transportation funds that Valley Metro had set aside for the line will now go toward other light-rail projects.

Scottsdale leaders have resisted joining the light-rail network for years, and other, farther suburbs never seriously explored light rail.

In 2016, Scottsdale city staff prepared a new Transportation Master Plan that included three light-rail routes — two that would have connected to Scottsdale Fashion Square and one that would have followed McDowell Road past ASU SkySong to the General Dynamics facility.

It didn't take long for the City Council to nix the idea. The council directed staff to remove the rail routes — and any mention of light rail — from the transportation plan.

One council member called the decision a final "stake through the heart" of light rail in Scottsdale.

Public art can be seen at some light-rail stops around the Valley, including Tempe. Nick Oza/The Republic

Light rail already extends from the eastern to western borders of Tempe. The college town recently began construction of a streetcar, which is similar to light rail, and will operate in downtown Tempe.

Mesa has continued to grow its light-rail route and will open a 1.9-mile extension this spring that will move the eastern end of the light-rail system to Main Street and Gilbert Road in Mesa.

There will be a park-and-ride and transit center at Gilbert Road. The $2 million transit center will feature six bus bays to help riders make bus-to-bus or bus-to-rail connections.

Jodi Sorrell, Mesa’s transportation director, said there are no plans to expand the light rail farther east, although the city is eyeing two extensions that would link to the Fiesta District and another connection with Tempe.

Mesa has also teamed up with Tempe to look at whether it’s feasible to extend the Tempe streetcar along Rio Salado Parkway into Mesa, she said.

Mesa also is considering a streetcar within its borders to connect to the Fiesta district, according to Sorrell.

There is currently no funding for any of these projects.

RELATED: Tempe seeks to boost appeal of planned streetcars, add public art

Federal funding is finicky

The Valley has relied heavily on the federal government, which has subsidized about half of the 26-mile, $2 billion light-rail system.

Brian Taylor, an urban planning professor at the University of California-Los Angeles, said federal money for local transit projects has been declining for years, and President Donald Trump's administration "hasn't had a lot of enthusiasm about public transit."

Former Phoenix Mayor and Congressman-elect Greg Stanton I campaigned harder for (the transportation plan) than anything I've campaigned on before or since. And right now, I'm more excited about the future of light rail than I have ever been. The world of possibilities continues to expand throughout the Valley. Quote icon

For the initial line, Congressman Ed Pastor, who retired in 2015 and died unexpectedly in November, was the federal force who made sure Phoenix got its share of Federal Transit Administration dollars.

"He was always willing to do the heavy lifting, whether here locally or back in Washington, D.C., and truly this system is his legacy," Smith said.

Stanton, who was just elected to Congress after more than six years as Phoenix mayor, could be the new local champion. Stanton led the 2015 campaign to extend transportation funding in Phoenix while running for re-election.

"I campaigned harder for (the transportation plan) than anything I've campaigned on before or since," Stanton said. "And right now, I'm more excited about the future of light rail than I have ever been. The world of possibilities continues to expand throughout the Valley."

The 'next big thing' in public transit

The future also is unpredictable.

New technology and transportation options have changed the way some people feel about light rail and other legacy transit systems.

Opponents of light rail point to developments in autonomous vehicles as an example of why it's unwise to invest billions of dollars in old-school technology, like rail, when it soon could be obsolete.

RELATED: Why do Waymo self-driving vans get so much hate?

Transit proponents say new technology won't diminish light rail's ridership and may actually increase it as new transportation modes provide more ways to connect to the rail system.

Dockless bicycle and electric scooter rentals have increased options for non-traditional commutes. Nick Oza/The Republic

Ride-share, bike-share and scooter-share:

Ride-share companies such as Uber and Lyft have made taxi-like service more convenient, and sometimes less expensive, than light rail and buses.

The development of autonomous vehicles could expand these options.

Dockless bicycle and electric scooter rentals have increased options for non-traditional commutes, as well.

Phoenix does not allow electronic scooters or dockless bikes without "lock-to" technology, although other cities such as Scottsdale, Mesa and Tempe do.

Tempe's streetcar system will be similar to light rail, but smaller, share lanes with vehicles and transport passengers shorter distances. Michael Chow/The Republic

Modern streetcar:

Tempe is in the midst of constructing a $201 million modern streetcar that is expected to open in 2021.

Streetcars are similar to light rail, but smaller, share lanes with vehicles and transport passengers shorter distances.

The 3-mile route will loop around downtown Tempe, connecting riders to neighborhoods, business centers along Rio Salado Parkway and regional destinations.

Bus Rapid Transit:

Phoenix's Williams said Bus Rapid Transit could be "the next big thing," because it maintains many of the perks of light rail but at a fraction of the cost and in a more flexible manner.

Bus Rapid Transit is different than the RAPID and Express buses that have singular pick-up and drop-off points across the Valley.

Bus Rapid Transit operates like light rail without the track. It has fewer stops than a traditional bus (typically every half-mile), stations where riders pay their fare before the bus arrives, signal priority and sometimes a dedicated lane.

ASU's King said Bus Rapid Transit has all of the best elements of light rail at a fraction of the cost.

Bus Rapid Transit operates like light rail without the track. It has fewer stops than a traditional bus (typically every half-mile), stations where riders pay their fare before the bus arrives, signal priority and sometimes a dedicated lane. The Republic

Phoenix's 2015 Transportation plan included funding for five Bus Rapid Transit corridors.

Phoenix Bus Rapid Transit Administrator Mike James said the city is embarking on a two-year assessment to determine where Bus Rapid Transit would be most effective.

"Light rail is great, but it can't and probably shouldn't serve everywhere in the city," James said.

Bus Rapid Transit, he said, can fill in Phoenix's transit gaps quickly and at a lower cost than light rail.

Light rail can cost more than $100 million per mile and take three years to install. Bus Rapid Transit ranges from $3 million to $30 million per mile and can open in a year.

Thinking about tomorrow

Transportation projects — whether new freeways, new autonomous vehicle technology or new rail projects — take time, political will and a lot of money.

The Phoenix metro area is projected to gain another 700,000 residents by 2026 — and the growth isn't expected to stop there.

Former Tempe Mayor Neil Giuliano, who helped usher through the region's first successful transit tax, said light rail's anniversary is the perfect reminder for politicians to think about what transportation systems the Valley will need 20 years from now.

"It's incumbent upon the people who are the policymakers of today to be thinking about 2040 and what type of transit system will we need in 2040," Giuliano said.

"What are you doing this year ... to accomplish that?"

Republic reporters Jen Fifield, Paulina Pineda and Catherine Reagor contributed to this story.

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