He’s served in the Senate three decades, cutting deals with Democrats, leading the charge on immigration reform — and infuriating the tea party along the way.

Yet as Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) prepares to defend a Senate seat he has held since 1987, conservative forces are struggling to field a candidate to derail him. Stung by recent losses, the groups that typically finance upstart GOP challengers are gun-shy about bankrolling a sacrificial lamb. And McCain’s reputation as a fierce and aggressive campaigner appears to be giving pause to some of his would-be foes.


The lack of movement is a sharp contrast to the animus conservatives have directed at McCain over his long and colorful career. Conservative House members from Arizona have declined to endorse him, yet they aren’t eager to run against him, either. A little-known state senator is starting to lay the groundwork for a run, but conservative outside groups worry that bankrolling her campaign could be a waste of precious resources. And McCain allies have effectively purged the state party of troublemakers, booting foes who could shift the Arizona Republican Party dramatically to the right.

But McCain is still girding for an intense fight.

“Absolutely, there will be a tea party challenge,” McCain said in an interview about his race.

“I think they have to be ready,” McCain said of his potential opponents, with a smile. “Everybody knows it’s not beanbag.”

What’s happening in Arizona isn’t unusual: Tea party groups are having a hard time ousting GOP senators in key primaries across the country. Coming off an unsuccessful 2014 midterm season — after taking out Republican senators in 2010 and 2012 elections — the activist right has yet to field formidable candidates in any of the 22 states where Republican senators are currently running for reelection.

Even in states where there’s a potential threat from the right, such as Illinois, Republican senators are building up big cash reserves that will make them very tough to beat.

McCain, 78, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, has amassed a war chest of $3.6 million after raising $1.6 million in the first quarter of this year, according to numbers he plans to report this week. He’s feeling good about his position heading into 2016: His hawkish foreign policy profile plays to his favor, he believes, as international issues dominate the national landscape. And his reputation as a bare-knuckle campaigner has apparently made conservatives who dislike his history of deal-making think twice about mounting a challenge.

“That’s how we fight wars, by the way: You just crush the opponent, and then you don’t have to worry about as many opponents,” said former Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, referring to McCain’s campaign tactics.

Two possible foes — conservative Reps. Matt Salmon and David Schweikert — said in interviews they would likely stay put in the House. “I’m happy where I’m at,” Salmon said.

Added Schweikert, “My wife has made it very clear that, at least at this moment in time, if I’d like to keep her, then I can’t run.”

At the same time, two other House Republicans — Reps. Trent Franks and Paul Gosar — refused to endorse McCain, a sign of how touchy an issue McCain remains among many conservative politicians.

“It’s best for me to demur on the question,” Franks said, “because I certainly have no intention of running myself, and I don’t know of anybody in the delegation that’s running.”

“I’m not supporting anybody,” Gosar said.

Few relish a fight as much as McCain does. In the interview, he assessed his own vulnerabilities — unprompted, as if to take on his critics.

The “main source of dissatisfaction” among conservatives, McCain said, continues to be his role in co-authoring a comprehensive immigration reform bill that would have provided a pathway to citizenship for the nation’s 11 million illegal immigrants. The issue is particularly salient in Arizona because of its border-state status. Some conservative skeptics, he adds, say he should have joined Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in pushing to defund Obamacare in 2013, a fight that led to the government shutdown.

“The reason why I’m still here is because I take every challenge with the utmost seriousness,” McCain said. “If you don’t, then you’re both foolish and vulnerable.”

One person who knows that as well as anyone is J.D. Hayworth, who took a drubbing in a 2010 primary against McCain, after the senator — fresh off his 2008 presidential defeat — poured $20 million into a scorched-earth campaign against him. McCain ran ads calling Hayworth, a former congressman, a “huckster” for appearing in TV commercials promising viewers government funds that didn’t have to be repaid, and he ripped Hayworth’s fiscal discipline and role as a lobbyist. McCain ended up winning the primary by 24 points.

So far, the only candidate who appears to be laying the groundwork for a 2016 run is state Sen. Kelli Ward. But she’s struggling to consolidate support among people on the right. Some of her actions in office, such as holding a field hearing on whether chemicals sprayed from airplanes are part of a government plot — known as the chemtrail theory — have prompted conservative groups to keep their distance.

“McCain’s going to call her ‘Chemtrail Kelli,’ or something like that. I worry about that,” said Adam Brandon, CEO of FreedomWorks, a conservative group active in primaries.

Two other outside groups that have done battle with McCain in the past — the Senate Conservatives Fund and Club for Growth — were mum on whether they’d be open to Ward’s candidacy. And House conservatives who won’t back McCain seem unwilling to stump on her behalf.

“She wanted to get my endorsement, but like I said, I don’t play in primaries from that standpoint,” said Gosar, whose district encompasses Lake Havasu City, where Ward has lived since 1999.

In an interview, Ward rejected the chemtrails criticism, contending the issue merely came up at a larger hearing about air, soil and water quality in her district. She said several constituents asked her to convene the hearing with state environmental officials and then asked about chemtrails.

“I don’t believe in the chemtrail theory,” she added.

Ward said she’ll decide whether to run in the next two months; under Arizona’s “resign-to-run” law, she would have to forfeit her state Senate seat. But she said she’s received ample encouragement to present a “positive and principled conservative” alternative to McCain. Ward says she’s also prepared for the senator’s tough campaign tactics, though she acknowledged “that’s always in the back of your mind.

“I want to prove to myself, first, that I can actually raise my own money, not having to depend on outside sources,” she said in a phone interview. Ward added that if she’s successful, groups like Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund might give her another look. She’s already making several hours of fundraising calls per day, she said.

Ward has had only cursory introductions with conservative groups so far — far from the intensive back-and-forth that would likely precede formal endorsements.

Asked for comment on Ward’s likely candidacy, a Senate Conservatives Fund spokeswoman pointed to a letter from the group’s leader, Ken Cuccinelli, who called on supporters to help identify a credible opponent. Brandon, the Freedomworks CEO, said there’s still plenty of time to find a candidate.

“For a race like this, I see no problem in waiting until the fall for a challenger,” he said, adding that he’s still holding out hope Salmon will change his mind and run.

“If it’s September and October, then I’m going to start saying it’s getting to be too late,” he said.

Sean Noble, a Republican consultant with longtime ties to Arizona politics, said if McCain were vulnerable, Schweikert and Salmon “would be in the race.”

McCain advisers believe that there will always be roughly 30 percent of the GOP primary electorate that’s unhappy with the senior Arizona senator. The key is to prevent that 30 percent from growing and assuming influential positions in the state party.

To that end, McCain allies have worked aggressively behind the scenes to install local GOP allies of the senator to key committee posts and oust right-wing Republicans. They successfully ejected Timothy Schwartz, who co-authored a McCain censure resolution last year, as well as other GOP agitators.

McCain said he was not directly involved in the push, but he’s been pleased by the outcome.

“There were some people who were very unhappy with me over there — but they are a minority,” McCain said.

Republican Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake said of the censure resolutions, “it doesn’t help anybody.”

“There’s always an element that will voice displeasure,” Flake said, “but in the end, Sen. McCain wins and wins big.”

Jake Sherman contributed to this report.