2015-07-22

The conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, the involvement of regional powers and international actors in these wars, the rise of the Islamic State, the return to authoritarian forms of government in some countries while others are taking tentative steps towards democracy, stagnated economies incapable of absorbing an enormous youth population… These are some of the realities that are defining the southern and eastern Mediterranean today.

In this fifth year after the Arab Spring, the apparent wave of democratisation that broke out in 2011 paints a gloomy scenario. But, where is the Mediterranean heading? And, above all, how can the current course of the most negative trends be redirected?

Anis Salem (Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs) sheds light on this issue by analysing the changes in the regional order, the factors of change and the possible future scenarios for the region in a new article from the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2015. The reflections by Claire Spencer are also of interest, who compares the current and limited capacity of influence of the European Union and the United States in the Middle East with the key role that they could play if they worked directly with civil society representatives.



For his part, Philippe Droz-Vincent (University of Grenoble), discusses the role of military forces in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.



Strategic Shifts in the Mediterranean after the Arab Spring: Drivers and Scenarios for the Region Anis Salem Four processes seem to affect the current definition of the south and east of the Mediterranean: the regression of the figure of a previously omnipresent state; the return of the forces “of order” and of authoritarian forms to the governments; strong changes in the regional order and balances; and, finally, the emergence of profound systemic forces resulting, for example, from the penetration of the media and education, the growing urbanisation and the demographic growth. Amis Salem describes these processes and the challenges involved in order to put forward four possible future scenarios for the region. He also makes recommendations for a positive and realistic future scenario. But he warns that it can only be put into practice if “leaders and institutions from both sides of the Mediterranean” have the will to do so. Read the article:

Middle East: Western 'Soft Power' Re-Visited

Claire Spencer

The spiral of violence in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, the overflow of violent extremism and the increase in migration flows and asylum seekers are challenging the capacity and ambition of the policy of Europe and the USA implemented so far in the region to bring about changes, guarantee stability and protect human rights. Moreover, a public opinion that is tense because of the repercussions of the chaos in the Mediterranean has meant that the European countries relegate the fundamental universal values of the European project, especially in the case of migration. Spencer appears pessimistic about the role that the West may play to slow down violence in the short term but argues that the western “soft power” can lay the foundations for the countries to be rebuilt once the violence ends, especially in the case of Syria. Nevertheless, it must look beyond the institutional interlocutors, often erratic when managing aid, and seek the regional and local actors that currently form active civil society support and organisation networks.



Read the article:





The Political Role of Military Actors in the Arab World after the Uprisings Philippe Droz-Vincent The military caste continues occupying a central position in the evolution of most of the countries that lived through the Arab spring. In Libya and Yemen, their lack of neutrality implies serious obstacles because armies are guarantors of stability, while in Egypt, where it is one of the most well organized institutions, has been raised on the reins of power after a coup. Only in Tunisia the army is limited to acting as a guardian of national sovereignty and democratic transition from 2011. Droz-Vincent also analyses the effect of internal contrarevolucionaries military forces, as in Syria, or external, such as Libya and Yemen in the Gulf interventions or the support offered by the Egyptian regime.

Read the article:



These articles are published online before they appear in the printed version of the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2015 .

Published since 2004, the Yearbook is a publication of reference to know the political , social, economic and cultural center of the Mediterranean.(www.iemed.org/medyearbook)

* Photo: The High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and security policy, Federica Mogherini, in a bilateral meeting with the Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on March 13, 2015- European Commission Audivisual Service



