Despite this, some see the die-off as more of a die-back. James Youtz is a silviculturist with the U.S. Forest Service in the Southwest Region. He says he doesn’t consider piñon to be in decline. “I don’t see any sort of a reduction in piñon as to how it should be across the Southwest.” Rather, he attributes the mortality event in the 2000s to poor soil quality—those that died were growing in coarse-textured soils. In his view, piñon-juniper woodlands had already expanded beyond their natural range into grasslands. “The drought then moved them back toward their more historic ranges. Much of our piñon and juniper is too dense compared to historic conditions due to a lack of fire.”

But Redmond counters that though increases in piñon and juniper density and expansion were documented in some areas during the 1900s, this was due to a suite of factors, not just fire exclusion. While cool and wet conditions in the early part of the century promoted pinon growth, it’s also likely that forests were recovering from past woodcutting by European settlers. In Redmond’s view, the growth of piñon seen in the early 20th century was a return to a kind of baseline—though that brief period of equilibrium has, more recently, fallen back into disorder. “Given recent and projected tree mortality, we need to manage for tree resilience to drought in these ecosystems, as right now efforts have been focused on removing these trees for other management goals,” he said.

Annual average temperatures have increased by two degrees Fahrenheit over the past 40 years in New Mexico. The last decade was the warmest on record for the state, with a growing number of extremely hot days and warm nights. And things are predicted to get worse.