Amanda Coyne

The Greenville News

Faced with poll numbers that have him in fourth place, Jeb Bush came out swinging against GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump at Saturday night’s debate in Greenville.

Bush needed to change strategies if he is to vault to at least second place in South Carolina’s primary and get out of the Palmetto State alive, some experts say.

In a packed event room at the Anderson Civic Center last week, Bush asked South Carolina to switch the trajectory of the Republican presidential race by choosing him in next Saturday’s primary.

“You can change this race,” Bush said. “You can change this by supporting someone who is a conservative reformer.”

The former Florida governor started the presidential race as the Republican frontrunner, but he was soon lost in a crowded field that was once as large as 17 candidates. Now with the field winnowed to six, and finishing fourth in the New Hampshire primary and fifth in the Iowa Caucuses, the governor’s results in South Carolina could determine whether he goes on to Nevada and the “SEC Primary” contests of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia on March 1.

“How you do in South Carolina indicates how people feel about you all across the South,” said David Woodard, a Clemson University political science professor and Republican political consultant whose clients have included Sen. Lindsey Graham and Rep. Trey Gowdy. “South Carolina, being the first in the South primary, really sends a message across the South.”

South Carolina is also considered by some to be a microcosm of the Republican Party, and a test in the Palmetto State a test for Republicans’ viability. The Bush campaign knows that; they’ve been in South Carolina since June, with paid staff and more than 1,000 volunteers across the state, adviser Jim Dyke said.

“It’s really more equivalent to a gubernatorial campaign than a primary campaign,” Dyke said.

But while Bush’s campaign has a robust team and plenty of money in their coffers and those of a pro-Bush super PAC ─ Bush has raised nearly $32 million and the PAC, Right to Rise, has raised more than $118 million ─ the candidate needs to finish high in South Carolina’s six man race to justify moving forward, said Charles Bierbauer, dean of the University of South Carolina’s College of Information and Communications and a former CNN White House correspondent.

“It would seem that if Bush has any hope, he has to have a good show in South Carolina,” Bierbauer said. “Absent a second place finish, I don't see how he goes on.”

Brent Nelsen, a Furman political science professor, said Bush can probably make it out of South Carolina, barring a catastrophically low showing at the polls, due to the large amount of money and organization he has in upcoming states, including his home state of Florida. But after that, the campaign may come to a crossroads.

“He has enough money and he has probably made some commitments to carry him on at least to Florida. That would carry him through Super Tuesday to March 15. So if he doesn’t do good, here he keeps going," Nelsen said. “He can't finish any lower than No. 3 and, realistically, he needs to emerge as an alternative to the angry crowd ─ that would be the Trump/Cruz crowd ─ in order to make a legitimate argument for continuing his campaign.”

Bush was third behind Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz in a January poll conducted for the Augusta Chronicle, Morris News Service and Fox 5 Atlanta, but when a poll for those organizations was released Friday, Bush had fallen by two percentage points and was leapfrogged by Marco Rubio, landing in fourth place.

But it's not all bad news for the Bush campaign. Bush's recent embrace of his presidential heritage, including bringing brother and former President George W. Bush on the campaign trail Monday, has excited his base. Recent visits to South Carolina, have had to been moved to larger venues, and even the larger venues have held overflow crowds.

Dyke predicts that Bush’s fiscal conservatism combined with his views on national security and pro-life issues will lead South Carolina voters to coalesce behind him. But Bush’s biggest problem is that he lands on the “middle of the spectrum” along with Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio, who he often evenly splits 30 percent or more of the electorate among, Bierbauer said.

“He is more of a moderate, Kasich is more of a moderate, [former candidate and Gov. Chris] Christie would have been more of a moderate. The problem is, you would have three or more who were each taking 10-ish percent," Bierbauer said. “If there had been only one of them, that would've added up to more points than what Donald Trump is getting, and the story would be very different.”

But Bush faithful haven't given up hope. Alice Norris, of Belton, said she, too, is hoping he can do what it takes to break through in South Carolina.

“He has got the wisdom, personality, disposition and judgment to handle the presidency,” Norris said. “I hope he's going to do well. It’s dog eat dog here, and he's not like that.”