Advocates for leaving the European Union have been inclined to dismiss claims that Brexit could undermine Scotland’s continued membership of the United Kingdom. Our exclusive YouGov poll today casts doubt on that assertion.

It can no longer be presumed that Scotland would vote “no” again in an independence ballot. Throughout 2017 and 2018 YouGov consistently reported that “no” votes outnumbered “yes”. On average, once “don’t knows” were left to one side, just 44 per cent said they would vote “yes”, little different from the result in 2014.

But in April YouGov reported Yes support had risen to 49 per cent. It was perhaps possible that was simply random variability. That can now be dismissed. Our new poll again puts support for independence at 49 per