The Condor has come home to roost. Yesterday, Erik Johnson inked a 7 year, 42 million dollar extension with the Colorado Avalanche. That’s an AAV of 6 million, or 8.4% of the cap at time of signing.

So excited to be in Denver for 7 more years! Thank you the best owners the Kroenke family. Also, Joe Sakic, Patrick Roy, Greg Sherman & 1/2 — Erik Johnson (@6ErikJohnson) September 22, 2015

& of course my great teammates & all the awesome @Avalanche fans, can't wait to help bring you more Cups to Denver! Thx for all the support! — Erik Johnson (@6ErikJohnson) September 22, 2015

“Management did a great job with the hand they were dealt,” Johnson said Thursday at the Pepsi Center, where veterans reported for training camp. “Ryan kind of put himself in a situation where he said he wanted to be here, but didn’t want to be here because of his contract demands.”

For most Avalanche fans, news of this deal will be accompanied by a sense of relief; Ryan O’Reilly’s recent departure from the club following years of contract turmoil left a sour taste in many people’s mouths. At training camp, Johnson made his opinion on O’Reilly’s negotiation tactics quite clear, and he will certainly be lauded for accepting a deal that is in-line with the team’s current salary structure. An AAV of 6 million is less than most were expecting, and likely much less than he could’ve fetched had he chosen to sail the high seas of free agency. However, a number of pressing questions still remain.

“It’s my desire to stay here, but it has to work for both sides and I’m all for working with the team and trying to fit into the structure,” he said then. “I’m not out to get something over my value on the market. I’m going to work with them and I hope they work with me and we can get something done.”

What precedent is there for this contract? How much are Erik Johnson’s peers with similar numbers making? Most importantly, is Erik Johnson a true 1D on a team that hopes to contend for the Stanley Cup in the next 2-4 years? Let’s take a closer look.

By The Numbers

I have my doubts about the relative importance of QoT, QoC and zone starts, but it can’t be denied that Erik Johnson has done some serious heavy lifting over the previous few seasons in the hyper-competitive Central Division. Since being traded to Colorado, Johnson has toiled alongside the likes of Shane O’Brien, Matt Hunwick, Nate Guenin, Nick Holden and Jan Hejda. That’s a band of possession delinquents if I’ve ever seen one. Johnson was comparatively blessed in St. Louis, where he played primarily with a declining Eric Brewer and Jay McKee. In short, Johnson has been placed in a variety of wildly disadvantageous situations on poor Colorado teams with mostly suspect coaching. Not exactly a recipe for success.

However, some of these numbers still warrant some brow furrowing. Last season’s 10.39 shooting percentage seems to be an extreme outlier, and it would be surprising to see him surpass 12-15 goals this coming season. Additionally, not once during his time on Colorado’s top pairing has Johnson had a CF% above 50%. This is troubling, and required some deeper digging.

Not once in his time on the top pairing has Erik Johnson has a positive impact on possession relative to his teammates. Even more troubling.

Erik Johnson’s impact is, very decidedly, a mixed bag. This was extremely surprising to me, given that Johnson quite obviously improves the best players on the Colorado Avalanche.

Evidence suggests that Johnson’s numbers are hampered by his relative inability to play with the weaker players on the team. So, what to make of this?

To make sense of this situation, I’m going to try and employ a simplified pharmacological concept. In terms of efficacy, there can be three types of interactions between medications: additive, synergistic, and antagonistic. Additive interaction means the effect of two chemicals is equal to the sum of the effect of the two chemicals taken separately. This is usually due to the two chemicals acting on the body via same or similar mechanism. Synergistic interaction means that the effect of two chemicals taken together is greater than the sum of their separate effect at the same doses. Antagonistic interaction means that the effect of two chemicals is actually less than the sum of the effect of the two drugs taken independently of each other. This is because the second chemical increases the excretion of the first, or even directly blocks its toxic actions.

But what does this mean for Erik Johnson? When playing with players like Nathan MacKinnon and Gabe Landeskog, Johnson is successful because his cohorts are playing similar styles, or acting on the game via similar mechanisms. This is not the case when playing alongside Cody McLeod, and Johnson suffers, unable to adapt his game appropriately. This suggests that Johnson is a dependent variable of sorts. He’s a participant in wildly successful synergistic interactions, but he won’t drive them.

Comparables

I thought it would also be interesting to use Emmanuel Perry’s similarity calculator to examine players who are similar to Erik Johnson both statistically and age-wise, and see what their salaries were. Unfortunately, I encountered a small issue.

Firstly, analysis of Erik Johnson’s 2014-2015 season didn’t provide any close matches, which is extremely curious. In fact, I don’t recall not being able to find a match of at least 97% any other time I’ve used this calculator in the past. Perhaps this implies that Johnson’s combination of style and impact is truly unique? I’m not sure whether Johnson’s injury would have affected the calculations or not, but it seems unlikely given that rate stats are used. Secondaly, Johnson’s numbers are similar to a curiously large number of young defensemen who are or were in the midst of their development, Jason Garrison aside. Why might this be?

Johnson’s HERO progression is similarly curious. There’s a very obvious mid-career trough followed by a pronounced improvement over the previous few years. Johnson isn’t at an age where defensemen typically improve, but it’s possible that his delayed early-career development means that he’s only just now coming into his own. Scouting wasn’t as much of a well developed science in 2007 as it’s become during the later portion of the cap era, but Johnson was still a first overall pick for a reason. He’s got the tools to be incredibly successful, the raw physical attributes. Perhaps now is that time.

Conclusions

As you can see, Erik Johnson is a very difficult player to get a read on. I have personally seen Johnson be spectacular, and would not be surprised to see him become a dominant force on the Avalanche blueline over the first 3-5 years of this contract. However, I think his ceiling is likely a strong, impactful 2D.

Given this assumption, I’m only lukewarm on Johnson’s contract. The money isn’t problematic for me, but the term is, to an extent. Johnson will be 35 by the time the contract ends, and the mid-thirties have proven to be a highly variable and unpredictable period of time for NHL players. The last thing the Avs need in 6 or 7 years’ time is a 6 million dollar player on their third pairing. However, Johnson clearly gave a little on the AAV, and compromises have to be made.

At the end of the day, Erik Johnson is a stand-up guy, and as an Avalanche fan I’m proud to have him on the team. However, his true on-ice value has yet to be determined, objectively speaking.

Contract Grade: B