During my junior year at UNC in 2012, a marketing professor required each group in the class to choose a company and implement a new marketing scheme. Being students at a basketball school in the state of North Carolina and fans of the Charlotte Bobcats, the immediate suggestion was to transition our focus from the established tradition of the Tar Heels to the basketball uncertainty that existed for the Bobcats franchise. We would “Bring Back the Buzz” in Charlotte months before Michael Jordan officially announced his intention to change the name of the franchise back to the Hornets before the 2014-15 season. This project was one of the more enriching projects that I was a part of during my four years in Chapel Hill. Not only did I have the opportunity to apply what we learned in the classroom to a topic which I cared deeply about, but this was a chance to envision a successful franchise and how it would feel to have the city behind this team. While we knew the marketing scheme was great, no amount of honey-combed courts could bring the fans back if the product on the floor was not shining as brightly as the purple and teal color way would around the Queen City.

A Step Back in 2014-15

The 2014-15 Hornets were terrible on offense. The stats show it, but if you watched a game, you know there is no arguing this fact. From spacing to ball movement to shooting, very few things went well. The Hornets were 2nd to last in overall field goal percentage, edging out only the lowly 76ers. The midrange shot has been thoroughly dissected in the past few years and a revolution is in full swing in many circles to avoid the midrange area at all costs. Daryl Morey’s Rockets, always ahead of the analytical curve, attempted just 6.8% of their total shots from midrange. In pure numbers, this makes sense as three points is better than two. You do not need to make the three point shot as often as the two point shot you are comparing to earn more points (3x>2y; if x represents 3P%, x can be just over 2/3s as much as y, which is 2P%, and be more valuable).

While inside shots are converted at a high rate in addition to creating fouls and freeing up outside shooters, the same cannot be said for midrange shots. The league average on midrange shot attempts last year was 39.4%. Hypothetically, a three point shot attempt is more valuable if an NBA team can simply make 26.3% of their three pointers, which every team did comfortably. Not every midrange shot can be avoided, and converting open catch-and-shoot midrange jumpers can in fact force the defense to rotate from assignments elsewhere, which will open the floor for more valuable shots. The expected points per midrange shot attempt last year would be calculated as .78 points per shot, while the expected points from a three point attempt would be 1.05 points per shot, as the league averaged 35.0% on 3 point attempts.[2]

The league has taken note of this; well…most of the league. The chart[3] below shows midrange shot attempts as a percentage of total field goal attempts over each of the last three seasons for the entire league (in black) and the Charlotte Hornets[4] (in teal).

This graph displays a troubling trend to see for Hornets fans. For a team that has struggled to attract star free agents, Charlotte needs to take advantage of “market inefficiencies” on and off the court, not give points away. As the league takes fewer of these “poor” shots, the Hornets make it more and more a part of their offense. When watching the Hornets last year on any possession that isn’t run through Al Jefferson on the block, it seemed that far too many possessions ended with Kemba Walker or Gerald Henderson attempting a tough midrange shot. The above graph and other numbers support that this scenario played out far more than it should have. So, what does this mean for a 33-49 team who will be missing their budding star and starting small forward, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist[5]?

How the Hornets Can Improve in 2015-16

Let’s start with what we know. The defense will be a downgrade. There is no way to replace MKG on that end of the floor, plain and simple. Not only were the Hornets 6-21 in games without Kidd-Gilchrist, but they gave up more than 8 points more per 100 possessions when he wasn’t on the floor. Even with this knowledge, I still believe that the Hornets can be a better team overall this year than last year due to other departures and some key additions. Defensively, the addition of Nicolas Batum from the Portland Trailblazers will help cushion the blow of the MKG loss. Over the course of last season, Batum held opponents to about a 1% lower field goal percentage than they achieved against all other defenders, comfortably placing him in the top half of the league in this category. However, it will be the offensive end where Batum will really impact the Charlotte Hornets.

The chart above[6] details key losses and additions in terms of shooting for the Hornets. The first thing to notice is the amount of roster turnover. For a team that has been subpar in both shot selection and shooting success, this quantity of moves has to be viewed in a positive manner. It appears that the front office has finally gotten the memo that teams have to not only take the right shots, but make those shots. The departures in red were either players that left via a trade, free agency, or will be out with an injury. The stats for Gary Neal and Mo Williams were combined as Gary Neal was traded from the Hornets for Mo Williams in February of last season. The names in green are the additions the Hornets made through trades and free agency that will greatly influence the Hornets offense in the coming season. While the Hornets also added Frank Kaminsky, Spencer Hawes, and Tyler Hansbrough to be contributors, I do not see them playing enough minutes and taking enough of these emphasized shots to impact the Hornets’ playoff push in terms of midrange and three point shooting, even though Kaminsky and Hawes will be counted on to take and make threes.

The first thing to notice is the amount of shots that have left town. Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker remain in Charlotte, and will likely lead the team in field goal attempts again, but the above four players took a total of 2690 field goal attempts and scored nearly 3,000 points[7] during their time in Charlotte last year. Included is a total of over 1,100 midrange jump shots, many of them coming off the dribble. Coach Steve Clifford has made it clear this preseason that he is not eager to replace these midrange shots with more of the same.

When you look at the numbers of the new additions, one can only be excited with what the numbers show. The average of their midrange shots as a % of total shots is lower than any single figure of the four departing players, which is a great sign. Both Jeremy Lin and Jeremy Lamb will be put into roles requiring them to take and make shots that they may not be accustomed to. Scott Brooks never seemed to trust Lamb while in OKC, and now that he is reunited with his UConn teammate Kemba Walker, expect a leap in play from Lamb this year. Due to the MKG injury, expect to see Lin and Kemba Walker sharing the floor much more than expected, a move that should put both of them into more catch-and-shoot situations as they open the floor for each other, elevating both of their games and increasing their field goal percentage. The player I am most excited to see in this offense is Nicolas Batum. While a very solid player in Portland, his usage rate when on the floor was way too low. With the skills that he possesses, he has a real chance to be a star this year and it will take a small miracle for his usage rate to do anything other than skyrocket. Last year, over half of Batum’s field goal attempts were from behind the arc, where he is a career 36% shooter. Of the absent Henderson, Stephenson, and Kidd-Gilchrist, not a single one took more than 20% of their shoots from three point range. Expect the floor to be spread and more points to be scored.

With a strict adherence to spreading the floor and turning midrange shots into three point attempts, not only will Charlotte’s expected points per shot attempt increase, but the floor will also be open for a trim Al Jefferson to go to work and others to drive and pass at will. They will not play with the fluidity of the Spurs, but expect this young Hornets team to grow some wings and flourish on the offensive end, resulting in an increase of wins and a real chance to bring playoff basketball back to Charlotte.

Predictions

A team record in 3 point attempts, with at least 23 attempts per game (averaged 19.1 attempts last year) as Batum, Walker, Lin, Lamb, Marvin Williams, P.J. Hairston, Brian Roberts, Frank Kaminsky, Spencer Hawes, and even Cody Zeller will be firing away; Average 98 points/game (94.2 last year), this team will still have to win games on the defensive end; a 41-41 record to make the playoffs in the weak Eastern conference.

[1] Stats from Basketball-Reference.com

[2] Now, it must be stated that if your team has Dirk Nowitzki or another player that thrives in the midrange area, they should not stop playing their game to conform to this system. The Hornets have no such player.

[3] Stats from Basketball-Reference.com

[4] Bobcats for the ’12-’13 and ’13-14’ season

[5] Torn labrum that will likely cause MKG his entire season

[6] Detailed player stats from Stats.NBA.com/player

[7] 574 of these points came from the free throw line.