An analysis from the University of Washington School of Medicine estimates more than 83,000 people in the United States could die from COVID-19 by August, even with current social distancing measures in place through May.

The modeling from the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) uses data from national and state governments, hospitals and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Researchers behind the analysis say peak demand for hospital services is expected to hit by April 15, likely overwhelming hospital resources.

The analysis estimates a hospital bed shortage of more than 54,000 nationwide and a shortage of roughly 14,000 intensive care unit beds when hospitals hit peak resource use. The data shows more than 26,000 invasive ventilators will be needed, and more than 2,000 people could die each day in mid-April.

“Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the U.S. over the next 4 months is an alarming number,” researchers wrote. “But this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states.”

The model is updated regularly, and the estimate of deaths has increased slightly since it was released late last week.

In states hard-hit by the outbreak, such as New York, peak hospital resource use is expected to hit sooner, on April 9.

The analysis estimates New York will experience a shortage of more than 60,000 hospital beds and more than 10,000 ICU beds on its peak date.

Meanwhile, other states such as Florida are expected to see their peak at a later date. Florida’s peak resource is expected to hit May 3, and the analysis estimates it will have more than enough hospital beds, but will be short about 300 ICU beds.

READ MORE OF OUR BREAKING NEWS ABOUT CORONAVIRUS

MORE THAN 150,000 PEOPLE HAVE RECOVERED FROM CORONAVIRUS

NEW STUDY WARNS OF SECOND WAVE OF CORONAVIRUS

WHO IS MOST AT RISK FOR THE MOST SERIOUS CORONAVIRUS SYMPTOMS?

THESE ARE THE 6 WAYS THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC COULD END

CAN YOU GET CORONAVIRUS TWICE?

The Trump administration Sunday announced the White House will keep its guidelines for social distancing in place through the end of April to curb the spread of the coronavirus, after officials reviewed at least 12 different statistical models of how the outbreak could play out.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, referenced the analysis Sunday during a press briefing, saying it “paints a grim picture of what’s to come in the U.S., even with social distancing in place.”

The nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, estimated Sunday that significantly more people could die.

Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Fauci said that the U.S. could see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, and there will be millions of cases.

SEE MORE ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN THE US

NOBEL LAUREATE PREDICTS WE WILL HAVE MUCH FASTER CORONAVIRUS RECOVERY THAN EXPECTED

CAN LYSOL OR CLOROX KILL THE CORONAVIRUS?

CAN I SHOP FOR GROCERIES SAFELY DURING THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC?

WHAT IS CHLOROQUINE AND WILL IT CURE CORONAVIRUS?

HERE ARE THE BEST MAPS TO CHECK OUT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC