Coronavirus updates: San Mateo County health officer guesses county has only found 2-4% of cases

Coronavirus cases in the Bay area as reported by county public health departments. Updated: 10:30 am on April 13, 2020. Coronavirus cases in the Bay area as reported by county public health departments. Updated: 10:30 am on April 13, 2020. Photo: Andy Andersen / Blair Heagerty Photo: Andy Andersen / Blair Heagerty Image 1 of / 50 Caption Close Coronavirus updates: San Mateo County health officer guesses county has only found 2-4% of cases 1 / 50 Back to Gallery

LATEST, April 13, 8:00 p.m. San Mateo County Health Officer Scott Morrow informed residents on Monday night he believes the county has identified less than five percent of the total COVID-19 infections since the outbreak began.

"I hesitate to give you the following numbers, because first of all they are a guess, and secondly because some will think they are too low to take action," he wrote. "My best guess is that approximately 2-3% of the SMC population are currently infected or have recovered from the infection. That’s around 15-25,000 people and they are all over the county and in every community. I don’t believe this number is off by a factor of 10, but it could be off by a factor of 2 to 3. Without the [shelter-in-place order], it could have well been over 50-75,000 by now, and that would have overwhelmed our healthcare system."

The county has just 699 confirmed cases of the virus; if Morrow's numbers are correct, that would mean the county has identified just 2.7-4.5 percent of its total cases.

"This virus appears to be wildly transmissible especially within households or congregate settings," he wrote. "Your risk from contracting the infection from any human you encounter in San Mateo County and outside your immediate household continues to be substantial unless you take all the recommended actions to protect yourself."

However, if his numbers hold, that would place the mortality rate for the virus somewhere between .08 percent and .14 percent, well below the county's current figure of 3.14 percent. There have been 21 total recorded deaths in the county to this point.

April 13, 5:00 p.m. Dr. Anthony Fauci spoke to how the nation might start to re-open during its recovery from the coronavirus outbreak, saying, “it’s not going to be one size fits all.”

As we discuss and consider the public health aspects, it likely will be something I refer to as a rolling re-entry,” he said. “I don’t know what it’s going to be yet, because we still have time. The data and the charts [Dr. Birx shows in press conferences] is likely going to influence some of the recommendations we will make, but I assure you they will be recommendations we make based on public health and the president will get a lot of input from others but we’ll give the honest public health recommendation.”

The statement echoes those by California Governor Gavin Newsom earlier Monday afternoon, when he said the state would be pursuing an “incremental release of the stay-at-home orders.”

April 13, 3:30 p.m. In a press conference at the White House Monday, President Donald Trump played a campaign-style video purportedly attempting to outline a timeline of his administration’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

The short video included clips of news segments featuring TV show hosts discussing the onset of the virus, as well as a brief clip of New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman saying a ban on flights from China was effective as an “aggressive move against the virus.” (Haberman immediately tweeted that "their use of the audio is misleading," and that she went on to say "he treated that travel limitation as a Mission Accomplished moment.")

The video then showed several governors, including New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and California Governor Gavin Newsom praising the president for being responsive.

The video, played after Trump made multiple comments about the "fake news" and the New York Times, appeared to perplex many reporters in the room. When asked about why he decided to air the video, Trump responded, “Because we’re getting fake news and we’d like to have it corrected.” Pressed further on whether White House staffers produced the unusual video, Trump said, “I wouldn’t use the word ‘produced.’ All they did was take some clips and just ran them for you. The reason they did that is to keep you honest.”

April 13, 3:15 p.m. In a press conference at the White House Monday afternoon, Dr. Anthony Fauci clarified remarks he made earlier regarding the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. Fauci stated that had the U.S. government instituted a nationwide stay-at-home mandate earlier, more lives might have been saved.

“That was taken in a way that maybe something was at fault here,” Fauci said, referring to reports that he may have been talking about the president.

“If mitigation works, and you instigate it and intimate it earlier, you will probably have saved more lives,” Fauci said. “If you initiate it later, you probably would have lost more lives … The first and only time that Dr. Birx and I had formally gone in to make a recommendation to the president to have a 'shutdown' … to have strong mitigation. We discussed it. It would be concerning to some that it might in fact have negative consequences. Nonetheless, the president listened to the recommendation and went to mitigation.”

Fauci told a reporter he did not recall the date of that meeting, or a second meeting when they doctors recommended an extension of the 15-day shelter-in-place. Fauci then rebuffed another reporter who asked if Trump prompted him to clarify his remarks.

“Everything I do is voluntarily, don’t even imply that.”

Later, when asked why he retweeted a tweet suggesting it was time to "#FireFauci," Trump shrugged. "I retweeted somebody, I don’t know," Trump responded. "They said fire Fauci. It doesn't matter."

April 13, 2:50 p.m. Contra Costa County has instituted a new policy requiring residential care and healthcare facilities in the county to screen incoming staff and visitors for potential COVID-19 symptoms, the county announced Monday.

The new requirement goes into effect Tuesday.

“The age and health of many county residents, particularly those living in congregate care settings, places them at higher risk of serious health complications, including death, from COVID-19,” Contra Costa Health Officer Dr. Chris Farnitano said. “This order is another precaution we can take as a community to protect our vulnerable residents.”

Specifically, the mandate means visitors and staff members must submit to a temperature and symptom check. Those facilities must not allow anyone to enter who has had a 100-degree fever or respiratory illness symptoms in the last seven days. Residents and patients are excluded from the mandate.

April 13, 2:45 p.m. At a Monday press conference, San Francisco officials said the number of positive cases in the county is now 957 with 15 deaths.

"I expect our numbers to climb above 1,000 soon," said Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco's public health officer. "Today’s numbers are significantly higher than Friday. This is in the large part due to the increased testing in the homeless population."

On Friday, the city announced 68 homeless guests and two staff workers at MSC South homeless shelter tested positive. Today, the total number of cases at the city's largest shelter grew to 91, with 81 guests and 10 staff confirmed positive. A total of 182 people from the shelter have been tested and half of them were positive.

"This is unfortunate, but this is the scenario we have been preparing for," Colfax said.

All guests of the shelter have been relocated to hotel rooms while MSC undergoes a deep cleaning.

Colfax recognized that the city’s homeless population already faces health issues and “this pandemic will only exploit and amplify those problems.”

April 13, 2:15 p.m. The number of COVID-19 patients at Bay Area hospitals held steady over the weekend.

After three straight days of recorded declines, the number of hospitalizations rose 3.6% from Friday to Saturday and 0.9% from Saturday to Sunday.

The number of patients in intensive care units declined 1.6% from Friday to Saturday and 7.1% from Saturday to Sunday. The data from Sunday shows that there are 234 patients in intensive care units across the Bay Area, the lowest total number since the state started recording ICU numbers by county on April 1.

April 13, 2:00 p.m. San Francisco Mayor London Breed warned cannabis enthusiasts not to gather in Golden Gate Park on April 20, stating, "We will be prepared if people start to show up to make sure that it doesn’t happen." She also warned prospective partiers not to seek a replacement location.

San Francisco's Golden Gate Park, and specifically Hippie Hill, has for decades served as the go-to epicenter for 420 celebrations every April. But this year, amidst the coronavirus outbreak, Breed said, "We will not allow this unsanctioned event to occur this year."

To deter crowds, Breed said police would be patrolling the park, and would be issuing citations and making arrests if needed. She also warned prospective partiers not to seek replacement location.

April 13, 1:45 p.m. Several Bay Area counties announced new cases of the coronavirus Monday afternoon:

Alameda County announced 43 additional cases, bringing the total to 886, with 23 deaths.

Contra Costa County announced 13 additional cases, bringing the total to 552, with 11 deaths.

Santa Clara County announced 45 new cases, bringing the total to 1,666. The county also announced six more deaths, bringing the death toll to 60.

April 13, 12:30 p.m. On Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a plan is forthcoming to begin the process of lessening social-distancing guidelines as the state begins to recover from the coronavirus outbreak.

Newsom has been in conversation with other West Coast governors to that end, he said, but plans to “lay out California-based thinking in that effort” at a press conference at noon Tuesday.

“We began a process of establishing more formally what it would look like and how we can begin the process of the kind of incremental release of the stay-at-home orders that advance the fundamental principle of keeping people healthy, keeping people safe, using science to guide our decision making and not political pressure,” he said. “[We’re] continuing to do what we can do to share our best practices.”

Newsom added the relaxing of the stay-at-home orders would need to be part of a “bottom-up plan,” but did not elaborate on any specifics.

"We need a process where we don’t invite a second wave," he said.

Newsom also announced Monday a $42 million effort — of which $40.6 million would come from the state — to “build supports” within California’s foster care system.

About 86,500 children are within the system, Newsom said, with 59,000 of them specifically in foster care. This fund would support a number of programs benefiting those children and families, including resource referrals and “amplification of the 211 system (a health and human services agency directory).

In addition, this fund will expand emancipation efforts and provide an extra $200 per month to families at risk.

Newsom gave updated numbers around the coronavirus infection and hospitalization rates in the state , noting that 22,348 Californians have tested positive.

A total of 3,015 people have been hospitalized in the state, with 1,178 of those going to the ICU. That figure marks an increase of 2.9%. Newsom also noted that 687 have died.

Newsom lauded Californians who have made an effort to stay at home, even during the holiday weekend, when nice weather would have tempted them to go outside.

“The curve is being bent because of you and your willingness to continue to stay at home,” he said. “Especially this weekend, Easter weekend, we did not see the surge some people were predicting.”

April 13, 10 a.m. San Francisco reported 85 new cases and one additional death Monday morning. The county now has 957 cases and 15 deaths. A week ago, San Francisco had 568 positive tests.

Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and director of UCSF's Prevention and Public Health Group, said the large number of new cases on Monday may be the result of a backlog in reporting over the Easter holiday. S.F. continues to average about 50 new cases a day, and on Easter Sunday, the county announced only 15 new cases. That said, Rutherford added, "With 85 cases, you want to see what happens."

Rutherford echoed what many experts have said in the past week, and commented, "Looking at what has been happening here, I think we’ve 'flattened the curve,'" meaning social distancing has slowed the rate of the virus' spread. "We’re going to have to see what happens next," he said.

San Francisco hasn't seen the surge in illness and hospitalizations that New York City has and the county has been lauded for its efforts in preventing an explosion of cases, but Rutherford said the region is still vulnerable. San Francisco has among the oldest populations in the state and research shows people over age 60 are at an increased risk for complications with the virus. What's more, "we have the densest housing of any county in California," he said. "We could easily have outbreaks from time to time as the virus gets introduced from time to time."

When does Rutherford think it will be safe to lift the shelter-in-place order? "That’s a question for Governor Newsom," he said. My guess would be in May some time."

According to the San Francisco's data tracker, 7,961 individuals have been tested in the county with 13% of the tests coming back positive.

San Francisco has the second-highest number of cases in the nine-county Bay Area. Santa Clara County has the most cases with 1,621.

San Mateo County updated its figures Monday morning, announcing 49 cases, bringing the total to 701. The county's death toll remains 21.

April 13, 8:52 a.m. The number of coronavirus cases climbed above 23,000 in California over the weekend, with nearly 5,000 cases in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Coronavirus-linked deaths in California now number more than 600, according to the Johns Hopkins database. Six hundred and thirty-four Californians have died after contracting COVID-19 as of early Monday morning.

For comparison, the same database has New York at 8,650 deaths, New Jersey at 2,183 and Louisiana at 806.

Santa Clara County continues to have the most cases in the nine-county Bay Area, and on Sunday health officials reported 55 new cases and three additional deaths. To date, Santa Clara has 1,621 confirmed cases and 54 deaths.

A week ago, San Francisco had 568 positive tests; as of Sunday its tally was up to 872, the second-highest number of cases in the region. Alameda County trails close behind with 853 cases. Last Monday, San Mateo County had a similar case count as S.F. and Alameda counties, but it now has fallen far behind with 652 cases. San Francisco's death toll is 14, Alameda's 23 and San Mateo's 21.

The COVID-19 death toll in Contra Costa County reached double-digits when two additional deaths were reported Saturday morning. As of Sunday, there were 539 confirmed cases and 11 total deaths in the county.

While Gov. Gavin Newsom and state officials have said hospitalizations of coronavirus patients are forecast to peak in mid-May, a model from the University of Washington predicts peak hospitalization will happen today. The Washington model predicts deaths will peak on Wednesday. This model assumes full social distancing will continue through May 2020.

California hasn't seen the surge in illness that some places such as New York City have seen, but Newsom and other experts have repeatedly warned that the state could see cases and deaths skyrocket if the shelter-in-place order is lifted prematurely. For more on model predictions, read SFGATE's story "Is California's internal coronavirus model showing a mid-to-late May peak realistic?"

Click here to read more on what we can learn from the Bay Area's hospitalization data.

Cumulative cases in the greater Bay Area (due to limited testing these numbers reflect only a small portion of likely cases):

ALAMEDA COUNTY: 886 confirmed cases, 23 deaths

For more information on Alameda County cases, visit the public health department website.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY: 552 confirmed cases, 11 deaths

For more information on Contra Costa County cases, visit the public health department website.

LAKE COUNTY: 4 confirmed cases

For information on Lake County and coronavirus, visit the public health department website.

MARIN COUNTY: 170 confirmed cases, 10 deaths

Fore more information on Marin County cases, visit the public health department website.

MONTEREY COUNTY: 87 confirmed cases, 3 deaths

For more information on Monterey County cases, visit the public health department website.

NAPA COUNTY: 34 cases, 2 deaths

For more information on Napa County cases, visit the public health department website.

SAN BENITO COUNTY: 38 confirmed cases, 2 deaths

For more information on San Benito County cases, visit the public health department website.

SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY: 957 confirmed cases, 15 deaths

For more information on San Francisco County cases, visit the public health department website.

SAN MATEO COUNTY: 701 confirmed cases, 21 deaths

For more information on San Mateo County cases, visit the public health department website.

SANTA CLARA COUNTY: 1,666 confirmed cases, 60 deaths

Fore more information on Santa Clara County cases, visit the public health department website.

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY: 91 confirmed cases, 1 death

For more information on Santa Cruz County cases, visit the public health department website.

SOLANO COUNTY: 135 confirmed cases, 2 deaths

For more information on Solano County cases, visit the public health department website.

SONOMA COUNTY: 147 confirmed cases, 2 deaths

For more information on Sonoma County cases, visit the public health department website.

In California, 723 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported, according to Johns Hopkins University. For comparison, New York has 10,056, New Jersey 2,443 and Louisiana 884.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:

Sign up for 'The Daily' newsletter for the latest on coronavirus here.

Amy Graff is a digital editor with SFGATE. Email her: agraff@sfgate.com.