For example, in its February 2016 analysis of TPP, the unabashedly free-trading American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) said the deal would bring “increases for corn (5 cents a bushel), soybeans (12 cents per bushel), wheat (2 cents per bushel)… and… cotton prices are not projected to change…”

Golly, a nickel, 12 cents, 2 cents, and, well, nothing — and that’s if everything works as AFBF forecasts. Sure, that’ll happen.

In truth, it’s far more likely that American farmers will get a bigger market bump out of one wheat-soaking April rain in Kansas or a warm, dry July in Indiana than TPP will or can ever deliver.

The AFBF all but confirms this outlook in its report’s bottom line: “After… full implementation net income should be $4.4 billion higher with U.S. ratification than without.”

If that $4.4 billion yearly boost to U.S. net farm income does materialize over the next 15 years, it will be roughly equivalent to the $4.2 billion more U.S. taxpayers will send to American farmers in direct farm program payments this year than just two years ago.

In their analysis of TPP, however, neither the AFBF nor the Obama White House estimated just how many American farmers and ranchers will be around for its paltry payday.

Alan Guebert lives in Delavan. The Farm and Food File is published weekly through the U.S. and Canada. Past columns, events and contact information are posted at www.farmandfoodfile.com.

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