Expect law enforcement to take a "wait-them-out'' approach to the occupation by a group of militants at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge southeast of Burns, experts say.

The FBI's aggressive and deadly showdowns at Waco and Ruby Ridge in the early 1990s became catalysts for rewriting how to handle sieges by extremists. The federal response drew a public outcry, congressional hearings and internal investigations.

In the years since, the FBI has moved toward low-key negotiations and keeping tactical teams and their equipment out of sight until warranted.

"Certainly in a case where there doesn't appear to be any immediate concern about hostages or immediate safety to the public, I would hope a reasonable approach would happen here," said Michael German, a former FBI agent who now serves as a national security expert and fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University's School of Law. He was an FBI agent for 16 years, specializing in counterterrorism cases involving far-right groups.

The FBI and the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives use more patience now.

That's what happened in the Montana Freeman case of 1996, when federal law enforcement "took a 'wait them out' approach rather than try to do any heavy-handed armed intervention,'' German said.

Outside Burns, the 20 or so armed occupiers at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge haven't become violent. No one is being held hostage. The reserve isn't an essential government operation.

"Silence and patience are friends that never betray, particularly for law enforcement," said Brian Levin, director of California State University's Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism and a former New York police officer.

"We have a group of armed squatters who are extremists holed up on a desolate unoccupied compound," Levin said. "There is no imminent threat to public safety, to commerce or structures at this time."

The Bundy clan and others originally had come to Oregon to protest the return to prison of two Harney County ranchers who lit a fire that eventually spread and destroyed federal property. The ranchers Dwight Hammond Jr. and his son Steven Hammond distanced themselves from the protest, however, and turned themselves in Monday afternoon at a federal prison in California.

The Bundy family joined with hard-core militants late Saturday to take over the headquarters of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, vowing to occupy the remote federal outpost 30 miles southeast of Burns for years.

At this point, there's no urgency for federal agents to step in, Levin and other experts said.

"The situation should be monitored in the least confrontational way,'' Levin said.

Officers may enforce a wide perimeter around the refuge but out of sight. The last thing they should do is give "hyped-up, armed extremists an excuse to shoot," Levin said.

Federal, state and local law enforcement officials have set up a joint command center.

They typically will start gathering information to develop a plan for a peaceful resolution, said Daryl Johnson, a former U.S. Department of Homeland Security terrorism expert and ATF agent who now works as a domestic terrorism consultant in the Washington, D.C., area.

That could include shutting off power or blocking access to the refuge from outside. But the fact that the group is isolated and contained gives law enforcement an advantage.

"It's reminiscent of the Occupy protest. Yes, people were on land that they didn't necessarily have permits or authority to occupy,'' German said. "But so long as they weren't posing a threat, it wouldn't require an immediate intervention. If the only crime here that anybody is engaged in is trespassing, it doesn't really justify a response that would lead to an escalation of violence.''

Heidi Beirich, director of the Southern Poverty Law Center's Intelligence Project, said she believes the occupiers in Oregon were emboldened "by what they saw as a clear victory at the Cliven Bundy ranch" in the Nevada desert in 2014.

"The fact that no one was held accountable for taking up arms against agents of the federal government" buoyed them, she said in a statement.

Cliven Bundy's sons, Ammon and Ryan Bundy, are among the militants occupying the Malheur refuge. They've insisted that they will stay until federal land is returned to private ownership.

The potential staying powers gives law enforcement a delicate line to walk, the experts said.

Johnson believes government officials should issue a strong message that counters the militants' grievances and serve as a deterrent to those who might want to join in.

"What they're aiming to do is to recruit more people into their movement," he said. The Harney County sheriff said in a statement Sunday night that the Hammonds weren't aligned with the occupiers, and went further Monday, sending a message to the armed militants to "go home.''

Active court orders also can be enforced against the Bundys at some point, Levin and others said.

They cite other standoffs that have lasted months and one in Texas that's lasted more than 15 years.

The Montana Freeman confrontation lasted 81 days, a 1997 standoff with a woman named Shirley Allen in Illinois who got support from anti-government militants was resolved after 39 days. An anti-government extremist named John Joe Gray has remained in his 15-acre fortified property in Trinidad, Texas, since May 2000 after failing to show up to court to face felony counts of assault against a police officer.

"If we do not respond to lawlessness by extremists we will certainly embolden them, but that's not something we have to act on today,'' Levin said. "There might be a time where authorities say enough is enough and they'll do something. I think law enforcement needs to take things one day at a time.''

-- Maxine Bernstein

mbernstein@oregonian.com

503-221-8212

@maxoregonian