MIGHT BE SAFE ANYWAY

Colorado, Butler and Cincinnati: They’re probably all going to be fine, though a 30-point loss in their first conference tournament games is not recommended. An extra win wouldn’t hurt, though.

WIN AND IN

Connecticut, Vanderbilt and Syracuse: The Huskies can add a decent victory against Cincinnati (which would threaten to relegate the Bearcats to a play-in game), while Vanderbilt merely needs to dismiss a play-in game winner to solidify its standing. Syracuse might survive a loss to Pittsburgh, but a victory would probably remove all doubt for the Orange.

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A LOT OF WORK TO DO

Alabama, Florida, Florida State, George Washington, Georgia Tech, Michigan: The task in front of all of these teams is measured in multiple victories over the next week. Early conference tournament exits all but assure trips to the NIT.

THE SEVEN CURIOSITIES

These are the week’s most interesting teams, at least for now:

Gonzaga: Go ahead and pair the Bulldogs with Saint Mary’s. One of the two is likely to win the West Coast Conference to secure the automatic bid (though Brigham Young could have a say about that). Neither owns high-end victories, but both have gaudy records and decent showings on the road.

Oregon State: Great in Corvallis, but no NCAA tournament games will be played there. Nonetheless, a stout strength of schedule coupled with victories over much of the Pac-12’s top tier at home could be enough for the Beavers.

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Pittsburgh: The Panthers are in must-win territory against Syracuse, but to feel really safe, they might need to turn around 24 hours after that and beat North Carolina as well.

St. Bonaventure: The Bonnies are good on the road, but a dreadful loss (La Salle) and some crummy advanced metrics don’t do a lot of good. But with a talented backcourt, Bonaventure just might win the A-10 anyway.

Tulsa: Frank Haith might just be the Bubble Baron considering how often his teams have found themselves in this exact conversation in recent years. The Golden Hurricane’s profile ensures it is in the conversation, but it needs a win or two in the American tournament.

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Virginia Commonwealth: The Rams might only need one more victory to sew up a spot, but two would make life considerably easier for Will Wade’s bunch.

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Wichita State: No team is likely to generate as much discussion between now and Sunday as the Shockers, who still have significant pieces left from their 2013 Final Four run but bowed out of the Missouri Valley tournament in the semifinals. Even without many high-profile victories, Wichita State could still find itself in the field at this time next week.

SUNDAY BRACKET WINNERS

Cincinnati: The Bearcats bounced back from a loss to Houston with an impressive showing against Southern Methodist. Mick Cronin’s bunch might now be at the front of the line in the American for an at-large bid, but that could change with a lousy loss in the league tournament.

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Florida Gulf Coast: Needed overtime to finish off Stetson, but the Eagles managed to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since their 2013 run to the regional semifinals. Viva Dunk City.

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Northern Iowa: The Panthers followed up their upset of Wichita State with a victory over Evansville on Wes Washpun’s favorable carom at the buzzer. Northern Iowa has won at least one game in its last two NCAA trips, and there isn’t a No. 4 seed that will be happy to see a team with defeats of North Carolina and Iowa State pop up as a first-round foe.

UNC Asheville: The Bulldogs, one of the mid-majors to win at Georgetown early in the season, won the Big South for the first time since 2012. It’s not hard to envision them earning a ticket to play North Carolina or Virginia in Raleigh in a couple weeks.

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SUNDAY BRACKET LOSERS

Maryland: The Terrapins went on the road against a good team — again. And they lost — again. There’s nothing particularly damaging about a setback at Indiana, but it is another lost opportunity in a season littered with them.

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Wisconsin: The Badgers weren’t a great bet to climb to one of the top four lines anyway, but any chance of that happening now requires a Big Ten tournament title. Considering where Wisconsin was in mid-January, a nice safe spot in the field isn’t the worst thing in the world.

And now a more complete look at the bubble picture:

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ACC

Looking safe (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame

SYRACUSE

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Record: 19-12, 9-9 ACC

RPI: 60

KenPom: 41

Remaining schedule: vs. Pittsburgh (ACC tournament second round)

Prognosis: Could have saved itself some Maalox with a victory at Florida State on Saturday. That didn’t happen, and while the Orange can conceivably land in the tournament without a defeat of Pittsburgh, it probably doesn’t want to chance it. Key road (Duke) and neutral (Texas A&M) victories highlight Syracuse’s profile.

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PITTSBURGH

Record: 20-10, 9-9 ACC

RPI: 55

KenPom: 43

Remaining schedule: vs. Syracuse (ACC tournament second round)

Prognosis: The Panthers find themselves right on the edge of the field entering the final week of the season. Maybe everyone around them loses their first conference tournament game and they can back in, but that isn’t an advisable strategy. Beating Syracuse on Wednesday at Verizon Center is a much better one.

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GEORGIA TECH

Record: 18-13, 8-10 ACC

RPI: 71

KenPom: 62

Remaining schedule: vs. Clemson (ACC tournament second round)

Prognosis: First up in D.C. is Clemson, and if the Yellow Jackets get that game, Virginia awaits in the quarterfinals. It’s still an uphill climb even for a veteran team, but it’s also a good sign for Georgia Tech it finds itself in the conversation.

FLORIDA STATE

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Record: 18-12, 8-10 ACC

RPI: 69

KenPom: 48

Remaining schedule: vs. Boston College (ACC tournament first round)

Prognosis: The Seminoles improved their profile the last two weekends with defeats of Notre Dame and (to a lesser extent) Syracuse but they didn’t escape the opening day of the tournament. Virginia Tech awaits on Wednesday assuming Florida State can scale Boston College. And if the Seminoles lose Tuesday, they can forget about any NCAA hopes.

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AMERICAN

Looking safe: None

CINCINNATI

Record: 22-9, 12-6 American

RPI: 52

KenPom: 32

Remaining schedule: vs. Connecticut (American quarterfinals)

Prognosis: There really isn’t much to hold against the Bearcats besides a loss to Memphis, and they’re decent away from home. Saturday’s victory over Southern Methodist probably did the trick for Cincinnati, but there’s no harm adding a victory over Connecticut to alleviate any remaining concerns.

CONNECTICUT

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Record: 21-10, 11-7 American

RPI: 53

KenPom: 31

Remaining schedule: vs. Cincinnati (American quarterfinals)

Prognosis: The Huskies are no one’s idea of great, but they’re not dreadful and have avoided inexplicable losses all season. Drawing Cincinnati, which swept two games from UConn in the regular season, means the Huskies will either add a somewhat useful victory or exit the league tournament without a wretched loss. It’s not quite win-win, but it’s not a terrible situation.

TEMPLE

Record: 20-10, 14-4 American

RPI: 53

KenPom: 86

Remaining schedule: vs. East Carolina or South Florida (American quarterfinals)

Prognosis: The Owls might be the top seed in the conference tournament, but their overall profile is decidedly ho-hum. Sweeps of both Cincinnati and Connecticut are helpful, and Temple would see one of those teams again if it reaches the American’s semifinals. But this is not a team that can assume it is safe with just a split this week.

TULSA

Record: 20-10, 12-6 American

RPI: 46

KenPom: 46

Remaining schedule: vs. Memphis (American quarterfinals)

Prognosis: The Golden Hurricane just lost to Memphis on Feb. 28, and the Tigers’ athleticism does not present a great matchup for Frank Haith’s team. It’s safe to say Tulsa will head back to the NIT if they fall again to Josh Pastner’s Tigers.

ATLANTIC 10

Looking safe: Dayton, Saint Joseph’s

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

Record: 22-9, 14-4 Atlantic 10

RPI: 40

KenPom: 37

Remaining schedule: vs. Rhode Island or Massachusetts (Atlantic 10 quarterfinals)

Prognosis: Squarely on the edge of the field, Melvin Johnson and the Rams will help themselves with every victory they can claim in Brooklyn. Get two, and they’ll probably be safe. Get three, and they’ll definitely be safe.

St. BONAVENTURE

Record: 22-7, 14-4 Atlantic 10

RPI: 27

KenPom: 77

Remaining schedule: vs. Davidson, Duquesne or La Salle (Atlantic 10 quarterfinals)

Prognosis: The Bonnies aren’t particularly deep, are exceptionally well-coached by Mark Schmidt and have two guards capable of scoring 30 points on a given night in Jaylen Adams and Marcus Posley. They’re on a roll, winning five in a row as they head to Brooklyn, and their road victories (Dayton and Saint Joseph’s) should help immensely. That said, if metrics beyond the RPI matter, Bonaventure could have a painful Selection Sunday if they don’t win the league.

GEORGE WASHINGTON

Record: 22-9, 11-7 Atlantic 10

RPI: 64

KenPom: 73

Remaining schedule: vs. George Mason or Saint Louis (Atlantic 10 second round)

Prognosis: There was an argument the Colonials could earn an at-large with a trip to the A-10 semis, but that went out the window when they lost at Davidson on Saturday. Mike Lonergan’s bunch almost certainly has to make it to Sunday to get good news on Selection Sunday, and they might have to win four games in as many days to earn their desired outcome.

BIG EAST

Looking safe (4): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence

BUTLER

Record: 21-9, 10-8 Big East

RPI: 45

KenPom: 35

Remaining schedule: vs. Providence (Big East quarterfinals)

Prognosis: Butler heads to New York on a three-game winning streak, and they haven’t lost to somebody other than Villanova or Xavier since late January. The Bulldogs have probably done enough to escape a trip to Dayton, let alone the NIT, regardless of how Thursday’s game against Providence at the Garden unfolds.

BIG TEN

Looking safe: Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin

MICHIGAN

Record: 20-11, 10-8 Big Ten

RPI: 70

KenPom: 54

Remaining schedule: vs. Northwestern (Big Ten second round)

Prognosis: At the end of the day, you need to win games against good teams, and Michigan simply hasn’t done that enough. The Wolverines are right around the edge of the field, but they’re a prime candidate for a top seed in the NIT if they can’t win a couple games in the Big Ten tournament. That would mean beating Indiana in Indianapolis on Friday. Good luck with that.

OHIO STATE

Record: 19-12, 11-7 Big Ten

RPI: 78

KenPom: 63

Remaining schedule: vs. Penn State (Big Ten second round)

Prognosis: The same major problem as Michigan (three top-100 victories) with some lousy losses tossed in as well. One or two victories in Indy isn’t going to be enough for the Buckeyes.

BIG 12

Looking safe: Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech

Every team in the Big 12 is pretty locked in.

PAC-12

Looking safe: Oregon, Utah, California, Arizona, Southern California

COLORADO

Record: 21-10, 10-8 Pac-12

RPI: 29

KenPom: 61

Remaining schedule: vs. Washington State (Pac-12 first round)

Prognosis: The Buffaloes will probably be fine so long as they dismiss Washington State, though they are not a favorite of advanced metrics systems. Beating Arizona in the Pac-12 quarterfinals would remove all doubt.

OREGON STATE

Record: 18-11, 9-9 Pac-12

RPI: 31

KenPom: 58

Remaining schedule: vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 first round)

Prognosis: Another Pac-12 team with a road deficiency, though the Beavers at least won at UCLA to wrap up the regular season. Losing to Arizona State to open the Pac-12 tournament could cost Wayne Tinkle’s bunch a bid, but this is still a team that really hasn’t messed up to date and has knocked off nearly all of the Pac-12’s good teams (albeit at home).

SOUTHEASTERN

Looking safe: Kentucky, Texas A&M, South Carolina

VANDERBILT

Record: 19-12, 11-7 Southeastern

RPI: 48

KenPom: 23

Remaining schedule: vs. Auburn or Tennessee (SEC tournament second round)

Prognosis: Very much in preservation mode, the Commodores should be able to rest easy if they handle the play-in winner on Thursday. Beating Louisiana State would further cement a place in the field somewhere other than Dayton.

FLORIDA

Record: 18-13, 9-9 Southeastern

RPI: 56

KenPom: 44

Remaining schedule: vs. Arkansas (SEC second round)

Prognosis: The Gators gained nothing from beating Missouri other than a sense of relief they can still win games. And win they must this week, with Texas A&M looming should the Gators defeat Arkansas. Get both of those games, and then the at-large conversation can renew in earnest.

ALABAMA

Record: 17-13, 8-10 Southeastern

RPI: 75

KenPom: 90

Remaining schedule: vs. Mississippi (SEC second round)

Prognosis: Even though Avery Johnson’s first team in Tuscaloosa checks off some boxes — good non-conference schedule and some noteworthy victories on the road — the Crimson Tide’s at-large hopes have disintegrated over the last three weeks. It’ll take a lot of success in Nashville for Alabama to land in the field of 68, including a victory over second-seeded Kentucky on Friday.

LOUISIANA STATE

Record: 18-13, 11-7 Southeastern

RPI: 90

KenPom: 82

Remaining schedule: vs. Vanderbilt, Tennessee or Auburn (SEC quarterfinals)

Prognosis: Yes, the Tigers have Ben Simmons. No, his presence is not enough to overcome a spate of silly losses throughout Louisiana State’s mercurial ride. This is an NIT team barring three victories this week.

OTHERS

GONZAGA

Record: 24-7, 15-3 West Coast

RPI: 66

KenPom: 30

Remaining schedule: vs. Brigham Young (WCC semifinals)

Prognosis: The Bulldogs are good on the road and the advanced metrics help them, too, but it’s still a team with just one victory over a likely NCAA tournament team (Connecticut). Nonetheless, they’ll be an interesting team to ponder if they make it to the WCC final and lose to Saint Mary’s for a third time. This could be a team that throws a curveball at analysts.

MONMOUTH

Record: 27-6, 17-3 Metro Atlantic

RPI: 50

KenPom: 66

Remaining schedule: vs. Iona (MAAC final)

Prognosis: It all comes down to a date with Iona on Monday night. The Hawks probably aren’t making it as an at-large, especially as the value of its victories over the likes of Georgetown and UCLA has largely vanished, but all those road victories offer reason to pause. It would behoove everyone trying to forecast the field for Monmouth just to handle business tonight in Albany.

SAINT MARY’S

Record: 26-4, 15-3 West Coast

RPI: 35

KenPom: 34

Remaining schedule: vs. Pepperdine (WCC semifinals)

Prognosis: The Gaels could be punished for the down year much of the West Coast Conference experienced. Their sweep of Gonzaga retains less value than in any year in a generation, and they lost their lone game against a top-50 foe. But they’re a bit like Gonzaga — a lot of wins and the potential of getting compared to a passel of fairly average teams. They’d be shrewd to make things easier and just win two more games.

SAN DIEGO STATE

Record: 23-8, 16-2 Mountain West

RPI: 42

KenPom: 39

Remaining schedule: vs. Wyoming or Utah State (MWC quarterfinals)

Prognosis: The Aztecs played a great non-conference schedule, are a fine road team and beat California on a neutral court. They also have a horrific loss to San Diego that rates among the most befuddling setbacks against a Division I opponent for a borderline team in recent memory. Much like Monmouth, San Diego State could do everyone a favor just by winning its tournament.

WICHITA STATE

Record: 24-8, 16-2 Missouri Valley

RPI: 47

KenPom: 11

Remaining schedule: Regular season complete