One of the staples of offseason talk radio and blog writing is the trade column. And unfortunately, a lot of times this takes the form of “let’s group together our trash and trade it for your star.” There are multiple reasons why this happens. Among other things, it’s hard to be objective about the talent on your team. Additional reasons are that fans are unlikely to know the farm system or payroll constraints of teams besides the ones they follow.

Earlier this month, I read an online column by former AP sportswriter and current USA Today contributor Dan Schlossberg about a potential trade between the Braves (his team) and the Mets. In a deal that he termed would “help both clubs,” Schlossberg proposed that the Braves send Justin Upton and B.J. Upton to the Mets for Daniel Murphy and Jon Niese.

For the Braves, it gives them a big upgrade at 2B, a SP to replace impending free agent Ervin Santana, removes the albatross contract of the Upton with the initials and neatly solves the dilemma of which outfielder to pay big money going forward between Jason Heyward and the good Upton. It works on many levels for Atlanta.

In this deal the Mets get the 30-HR hitter they crave to fill a corner outfield spot. They also get out of the arbitration payday that Murphy is getting ready to cash in on while opening second base for either Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera. If we just looked at it this deeply, it would indeed be a win-win transaction. But there are other factors to consider.

The Mets would add roughly $13.5 million in salary in 2015 with this transaction, depending on how large Murphy’s arbitration/new contract turns out to be. That alone probably puts the kibosh on this deal. But following the 2015 season, the good Upton is a free agent looking for a $100 million payday, one that seems extremely unlikely for the Mets to give him. They also get to keep the initials for an extra $33.1 million over the 2016-2017 time frame. Good luck finding anyone to take that contract.

Perhaps the real reason this trade wouldn’t work is the simple matter that the Mets don’t need two outfielders. Even if money was no hindrance (ha!) why would the Mets willingly take the initials over any of their in-house options? No doubt the writer considers taking that contract the cost of doing business in acquiring the good Upton. And if the younger Upton had a team-friendly contract like Niese, that would work. But as an impending free agent, that’s a tactic that simply won’t fly.

My belief is that the writer was on the right track in that the Mets and Braves are potential trade partners, with either the good Upton or Heyward being the main piece going to New York. Both outfielders are free agents following the 2015 season and unless Atlanta significantly adds to the payroll (or finds a trade partner for one of their other eight-figure contracts) they’re going to lose one of them for a draft pick.

How much is a decent return for a guy you control for only one year? You have to take into consideration that both Heyward and the good Upton are under control for roughly half of what they’re worth in 2015. The exact percentage is unclear but without a doubt either one is a bargain this upcoming season.

Mets fans distinctly remember getting a former first-round pick for two months of Carlos Beltran. And Beltran was being paid what he was worth and was ineligible for draft pick compensation. Because Beltran did not help the Giants into the playoffs and the first round pick has made it to the majors and figures to be an MLB pitcher for a decade or more, neutral observers would claim this trade as a slam dunk win for the Mets.

Yet how would the trade be viewed if Beltran led the Giants to the World Series and the first round pick came up with a rotator cuff injury? That was certainly an outcome on the table back in 2011. Each team took a gamble and this particular one turned out the Mets’ way. One could make a strong claim that the odds were in their favor but anyone using hindsight to say it was 100 percent guaranteed to work out for New York is not being honest.

If you were Sandy Alderson, how much would you be willing to gamble on getting the impending free agent? While we know that’s not a move Alderson will make in the offseason, perhaps if all the stars align correctly, it’s one he’ll make at the trade deadline.

But let’s say it was you. My guess is you’re a little less conservative than Alderson. Given the makeup of the major league club and the farm system, would you trade Steven Matz for the good Upton? How about if we substitute Niese for Matz? Or if the payroll isn’t there, would you do Murphy and Rafael Montero? Both teams could probably come up with a dozen potential scenarios that make at least some sense, even if they’re not enough to actually pull the trigger.

Or, what If you’re the GM of the Braves? Are you willing to deal a middle-of-the-order hitter to a division rival? Especially if the return is a minor leaguer with a history of arm trouble? Are you willing to essentially punt any hopes of winning the division in 2015 for a chance to be a better club in the future? Is it easier to find a replacement for the good Upton or Santana?

Here at Mets360, we’re attempting to answer those – and hundreds of other – questions. We’re doing a simulation with 30 owners taking over the 30 MLB clubs and conducting the offseason. My daughter picked a name out of a hat and Dan Kolton will be running the Mets. My team is the Cleveland Indians. Our offseason ends next Sunday night. So in the next 10 days or so, look for articles on how our project turned out.

And who knows, maybe the good Upton winds up on the Mets after all.

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