The UK mood is shifting against austerity

Prime ministers do not like TV debates because they offer the Opposition leader a clear target. David Cameron is no exception, but he formed a cunning plan to defuse an ambush in any head-to-head with Ed Miliband, his Labour opponent. He insisted that he would debate only if the leaders of all the parties contesting the May 7 general election were included (minus the mob from Northern Ireland, where they will conduct their own debate).

So when no fewer than seven party leaders stood behind their individual lecterns in a TV studio late last week, the occasion was unique. In previous TV election debates, only the leaders of the Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties had a ticket to ride. This time they were flanked by Nationalists from Scotland and Wales, by UKIP, the anti-European party, and the Greens. Three of those leaders were women: the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, and by the leader of the Greens, who comes from Sydney.

The cast may have been different, but the predominant theme had not changed. When voters ask what the election is about, the answer is almost always the same: 'It’s about the economy, stupid'. This time the tone was different, however, and it changed because of the ladies.

All three called for the end of the austerity program of the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, talked about 'progressive' policies, a euphemism for old-fashioned leftist politics. She is for free health and education no matter what the cost, and, by the way, for Scottish independence. Sturgeon found allies in Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalist) leader, and Natalie Bennett, who had quite recovered from an embarrassing 'brain fade' during a recent radio interview.

By concentrating on austerity, Bennett avoided any scrutiny of the Greens’ policies, which include no more economic growth, curbs on motor cars, and the abolition of the monarchy. (Just think, if the Greens were to have their way, Australia might turn out to be one of the last Commonwealth nations to retain the monarch.)

It would, however, be a mistake to dismiss Bennett’s party as irrelevant. A small but potentially significant minority of voters, who are currently alienated by the three major parties in the House of Commons and who like the idea of the Greens, may prove decisive in tight-run constituency races between the Conservatives and Labour.

Austerity is the principal reason why the economy matters so much in the election. Both Cameron and Miliband want to reduce the £90bn deficit in government spending to zero. What they argue about is how best to do it. Cameron argues that five years of tough austerity have produced growth (2.7 per cent in 2014), and cut unemployment. His speeches all say: “Don’t let Labour ruin it.” Miliband asserts that the Coalition’s policies have caused a reduction in living standards for working men and women, while the rich have grown very much richer.

The Conservatives want to be out of the red by 2020. Labour insists this is too drastic and proposes to reduce the deficit gradually. The Liberal Democrats firmly occupy the middle ground, saying the cuts should be neither too heavy, nor too light. In the Budget George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced on March 18 that, if the Tories win, the next round of cuts, will be 'only' £30 billion, half his initial proposal last Autumn. Since all parties appreciate that the National Health Service will in the future cost more billions of pounds than it does now, the cuts will fall on spending departments such as welfare and defence. Whoever wins, the future does not look appealing.

The women came out against this. Their opposition -- Sturgeon’s in particular -- has proved an embarrassment to Miliband. Though many of Labour’s rank and file have never liked austerity, the leadership believed it had no choice: that adopting it was the only way to win the election. But this does not hold well in Scotland. Sturgeon is a combative and authoritative performer, and her impressive role in the TV debate put Miliband under pressure from members of his own party.

So far, the polls suggest that neither Conservatives nor Labour will win enough seats in the Commons to form a government without allies. Labour would need to form a loose alliance with the Scottish Nationalists, and Miliband is already aware of the burden this could become.

As for David Cameron, he was a solitary figure during the debate, behaving as he thought a Prime Minister ought. He must be hoping that the Liberal Democrats will win enough seats to continue working in government with the Tories. Besides the Ulster Unionists, the only other prospective coalition candidate is Nigel Farage, who leads UKIP. He is a cocky figure, and his feisty TV performance was designed to show that no one bar himself was telling the truth. But Farage’s 'truth' about his anti-EU immigration policy has a nasty edge to it. UKIP are spoilers, not winners.

Who won? Sturgeon, probably. But if you are looking for a loser, it certainly wasn’t David Cameron.