With the new league year roughly two months away, the Indianapolis Colts will be looking toward the group of free agents set to hit the market this season. However, some of their attention may need to turn to a potential contract extension for running back Marlon Mack.

Mack currently has one year remaining on his rookie contract after being a fourth-round pick with the Colts in 2017. He is slated to make $735,000 in base salary for the 2020 season. As one of the better running backs in the NFL, it might behoove the Colts to get something done before he’s allowed to test the market.

General manager Chris Ballard hasn’t been shy about giving out contract extensions to players he feels deserve them. Just ask Kenny Moore, Rigoberto Sanchez and Luke Rhodes about the proactivity Ballard uses to lock up some of his core players.

This is an interesting situation for the Colts because Mack is coming off of a career year. He took 247 carries for 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games. Injuries have been a part of Mack’s career thus far, but he’s been extremely efficient when on the field over the last two seasons.

The market will dictate what Mack’s contract could look like. Before Derrick Henry and Melvin Gordon get pretty big deals, here are the top-five running back contracts sorted by average annual value (AAV).

Name Age Years Total Value AAV Year Signed Ezekiel Elliott 25 6 $90,000,000 $15,000,000 2019 Todd Gurley 25 4 $57,500,000 $14,375,000 2018 Le’Veon Bell 27 4 $52,000,000 $13,125,000 2019 David Johnson 28 3 $39,000,000 $13,000,000 2018 Devonta Freeman 27 5 $41,250,000 $8,250,000 2017

Taking into account the contracts that are currently at the top of the position, it is unlikely the Colts will pay Mack in the same tier as Gurley and Bell. They were proven veterans with a track record of success in the NFL. Mack is approaching that, but his injury history could give the Colts pause in handing out a massive contract like that.

However given Mack’s production over the last two seasons when healthy, the Colts know their rushing attack is at its best when he’s leading the way. Even with the argument that running backs can be replaced—the Colts proved some of that argument in 2019—the offense is better with Mack in it.

Ballard doesn’t seem like the type of general manager to use the franchise tag, let alone doing so on a running back. Plus, the new CBA could change aspects of the franchise tag once the current one expires following the 2020 season.

The deals for Henry and Gordon could help Mack get a bigger contract if theirs gets done before his. But with his recent injury history and the decently solid production the Colts have gotten when he is hurt, he’s unlikely to get paid like a top-tier running back.

Still, Mack is likely going to get more on average annually than Freeman. There’s even a narrative that he could approach the Johnson/Bell tier of $13 million per year. But Ballard probably isn’t going to go for that. He doesn’t overpay for free agents.

So what could a contract extension for Mack look like? He’s a projection:

Four years, $46 million with $28 million guaranteed