[Breaking down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

The Rumor

Well we all know by now that Steven Stamkos liked the tweet that he liked and it might have been an accident or an F.U. or a negotiating ploy, but boy did it get everyone talking about nice young man Steven Stamkos and how he will 100 percent definitely for sure sign with Toronto at 12:00:01 p.m., Eastern Daylight Time, July 1, 2015 C.E.

And with the understanding that he will never ever ever ever ever ever ever re-sign with Tampa because of how much he hates Jon Cooper the mean coach who makes him play wing, people are now talking about contingency plans. Specifically, Steve Yzerman's plans to trade Stamkos before the deadline so that he can at least get something in return for him.

Complicating things, of course, is the fact that Stamkos has a no-movement clause, which effectively limits the number of teams to which he can be traded. However, it's worth noting that he would probably go to a contender, especially if there's one where he has, say, a long-time friend.

What's that, you say? There's a top team in the Eastern Conference that has need for a center of Stamkos's caliber, possibly the pieces to acquire him should Yzerman want to make such a trade, and one of Stamkos's oldest buddies in the sport?

Well step right up, Marc Bergevin, you're the first contestant on Trading For A Disgruntled Steven Stamkos!

Who's Going Where?

And hey guess what folks, it just so happens both no lesser authorities than Bob McKenzie and Elliotte Friedman mentioned this exact possibility on Tuesday so it is extremely shocking that everyone is now saying “Hmm, y'know I think Stamkos to Montreal might make some sense!”

Here's McKenzie on TSN Radio in Toronto saying the thing:

“But I’ve got to be honest with you. If I were Steven Stamkos – so I’ll put my sensibilities on him – I would look at the Montreal Canadiens and say, ‘Wow. There’s a good team. P.K. Subban, a guy I grew up with. Know him real well. That looks like a team that could win and boy, wouldn’t it be fun to play hockey in Montreal.’”

And here's Friedman in 30 Thoughts also saying the thing:

“[Trading for Stamkos is] right up Marc Bergevin's alley, going for it with the best possible rental. Stamkos, who has a no-move, would probably agree to play with old friend PK Subban. But can you see Steve Yzerman sending him to a potential postseason opponent? Me neither.”

So that's where this particular rumor started, but as you might imagine with a deal of this magnitude, there are some hurdles to clear.

The Implications

All of this, by the way, presupposes that we're talking about a pure rental here, because the Habs have no cap space to work with next season, and more than $64.7 million committed to 23 players already, and that's before we even talk about re-signing anyone.

The first is the return. What is a, shall we say, “unsettled” player like Stamkos worth? He's clearly better than Phil Kessel, another out-of-favor player on a big-money contract who needed or perhaps wanted a change of scenery. However, one must also weigh in that Kessel is signed for forever at a huge cap hit, and the trade happened in the summer. On the other hand, Stamkos is a UFA in seven months and this trade is happening at or near the deadline.

But even if we use the Kessel trade as a basis for this swap, we must note he went to Pittsburgh with a small portion of his salary retained, along with an AHL dead-end, an AHL/NHL tweener at best, and a second-round pick. For all that, Toronto received a decent defensive prospect, a good forward prospect, a third-line NHL forward, a first, and a third. Not a huge return, but a decent one, and maybe that's the kind of structure we're working with here, minus all the extras Toronto shipped to Pittsburgh.

Stamkos for an NHL roster player, a few prospects, and two picks, one of which is in the first round? Yeah I can see that.

There are a number of guys on the Montreal roster they wouldn't mind losing, but not too many bad contracts to get rid of either. They have some pretty nice young players in the system. They certainly have the picks and probably a willingness to offload them in order to Win Now.

All of that, though, is contingent on the one thing Friedman said: If Tampa's going to have to play a divisional rival in the playoffs, they don't want Stamkos bombing shots in on their goalie. And boy does that ever complicate things.

Story continues