The next federal Tory and NDP leaders will have their work cut out for them trying to take back the Toronto seats they once held — and the federal NDP faces an especially steep climb in the downtown core.

A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll suggests that, while the provincial Liberals are struggling and stand to lose seats outside of downtown, it’s a much rosier picture federally for Liberals. The federal Grits are “leading in every single corner of the city,” with a 60 per cent hold across Toronto, the firm says.

At the moment, the federal NDP is polling at eight per cent among decided and leaning voters across the city, which will make it especially tough for them to retake seats they lost in the last election. Even after the Liberals’ recent series of political pratfalls over sketchy fundraising optics and the broken promise on electoral reform, their support in the city is solid.

Here’s what should alarm New Democrats most: They’re currently polling at five per cent in the downtown core, where they’re usually competitive and have won seats in the past. There the Liberals sit at 73 per cent support now, trailed by the Tories at 16.

“Polling at only [eight per cent], if an election were held today the NDP would ﬁnd themselves without a single seat in a city that has regularly elected high-proﬁle NDP members of Parliament in constituencies like Toronto-Danforth and Trinity-Spadina (now Spadina-Fort York),” Mainstreet’s analysis says.

Toronto-Danforth was held by NDP Leader Jack Layton and, after Layton’s death in 2011, by NDP MP Craig Scott; the seat is now held by Liberal Julie Dabrusin. Trinity-Spadina was held by prominent New Democrat Olivia Chow; Spadina-Fort York is now Liberal Adam Vaughan’s seat. The NDP usually places ahead of the Tories downtown, but it’s trailing them in third place (although it should be noted that the poll just surveys Toronto areas and doesn’t get into riding breakdowns).

Last election, the NDP pulled about 30 per cent support in those areas, although Scott pulled in 40 per cent in the close Toronto-Danforth race and lost by only two points.

The prospects are much better for the Conservatives, but they’re still eclipsed by the Liberals in every region of the city. Their best support is coming from Etobicoke at 36 per cent, which elected Conservatives in 2011. But again, they’re still overshadowed there by the Liberals, who sit at a comfortable 53 per cent. The poll shows roughly the same proportion of the vote share in 2015 in Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke—Lakeshore.

Provincially, the story is much different. Ontario’s Liberals stand to lose seats outside of the downtown core and the Tories are poised to take Etobicoke.

The Wynne government has been facing brutal polling numbers throughout the province for about two years now, and the trend shows little hope for the provincial Grits who desperately need to hold on to their Toronto seats.

The poll, out of a survey of 2,103 Torontonians, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.