A/N: Apologies for the delay. I wanted to get the next few chapters in order so I can have regular updates for the remainder of the arc. It should be back to weekly updates now.

Btw, I realize that to some of you Naruto’s inductive abilities may seem a bit like magic. Last chapter he only just heard about the existence of a mind-control technique, and within seconds he goes from there to a conspiracy involving every major character in the setting. Where is he pulling all this knowledge from? Is he secretly glancing at the script? Or is he just making things up as he goes along?

It’s neither! Naruto is actually basing his conclusions on a real-life statistical concept called prior probability, which lets him interpret everything he learns through a constantly updated model of the world. In this case, because he already knows that there’s a shadowy figure pulling strings from behind the scenes (because of Minato’s letter), he needs far less evidence to come to the conclusion that this figure is using mind-control. And since he already knew that no other technique has a cooldown time, he immediately realized that the 10-year waiting period to use Kotoamatsukami had to be a lie.

Basically, instead of treating every technique like an independent mystery, Naruto tries to figure out all of them at once by asking the one big question of how the world really works. And even though that last question is much harder, he also learns much more from his attempts to answer it.

-o-

“Shikamaru? Are you up yet?”

Shikamaru groaned into his bedroll, wishing fervently that he had been born into a profession that did not involve getting up in the morning. Mercifully, as a male he had never been required to sleep on one of those rock-hard Takamakura neck rests (and would probably have murdered anyone who tried to force him to), but somehow that thought had never managed to make his mornings any more cheerful.

“Shikamaru, you’re going to be late!”

His mother was using the precise intonation that implied more trouble later down the line if he did not immediately comply. Sadly, expected cost-benefit analysis had never had much effect in prompting his body into action. Instead, he mentally ran through the willpower training exercise his father had taught him:

Disregard higher level thought. Focus all attention on the smallest part of your body and then continue from there. Use apathy against itself by turning your desired result into the path of least resistance.

He started by twitching the pinkie finger of his right hand. Once he managed that he started edging it closer to the side of his mattress, allowing the rest of his hand to be dragged along with it. He felt his hand stretch itself further and further from his bedroll until at last his body tumbled after it and he fell bodily onto the tatami mats that made up the floor of his bedroom.

“Shikamaru!”

“I’m taking a shower,” he yelled back. A half truth. That was bad. Reflexive deception of others made it easier to deceive oneself. The Fourth Hokage had a whole saying about that, if he cared to remember it.

He stumbled into his private washing room, tossed his sleeping robes aside and activated the seal on the wall that caused a stream of warm water to blast into his face. Nearly all of Konoha had to make do with ordinary baths, as this kind of seal setup was considered a ridiculous luxury, but hard experience had taught his parents that if Shikamaru goes into a bath he does not soon come out again.

A minute later the seal ran out of water (as was its design), and Shikamaru dried himself, dressed and slogged down the stairs and into the kitchen. His mother was waiting for him at the breakfast table.

“Chōji is going to be here any minute,” she admonished. “You’re going to end up making him wait.”

“How do you even know about that? It’s not like I told you.” He plonked down onto a pillow and began shoving some unidentified food into his mouth. He did not know why she bothered.

“I’m your mother,” she said. “It’s my duty to know.”

Shikamaru did not roll his eyes, but only because there was no point. Somehow, his mother had never adjusted her expectations of him, despite literally knowing him his entire life. He did not know whether that was stupidly stubborn or amazingly impressive, but he knew better than to remark on it either way.

A few minutes later he was stumbling out into the blaring sunlight, and found Chōji already walking up the path to meet him. His rotund friend had long ago figured out how to time these things perfectly.

“Hey Shika! I guess I missed breakfast, huh?”

Then again, maybe not.

“Chōji.” He waved at his teammate and then walked right past him and towards their destination, not wanting to spend any more time near his family’s estate than necessary. “Why’re we doing this, again? I thought I did a pretty good job explaining last time why the whole thing is stupid.”

“That was when it was just Naruto.” Chōji pulled out one of the rice balls which he always kept stuffed in his pockets in case of food-related emergencies, and started munching away happily. “Since other noble clans are involved now, dad thinks it would be better not to be left out.”

Shikamaru groaned. In other words, their families were perfectly aware of the illegal jutsu exchange and were sending the two of them to keep an eye on things before deciding what to do about it. He let out a long sigh. One day, he would have to start caring about those kinds of Village politics as well. One day.

The two of them walked down the Village street in companionable silence. It was still early in the morning, the inappropriately bright and glaring sun notwithstanding, and there was a sense of quiet peace about the Village. That was the one bright spot about living in Konoha: Even when people were busy, even when ninjas were leaping over the rooftops in a panic while merchants loudly advertised their wares, everything still felt peaceful. It was all the trees, he supposed. There was just something about the blending of manmade structures with natural flora that gave off a pleasing aesthetic, no matter how haphazardly some of it was built.

“Hey Shika,” Chōji said hesitantly. “Do you think Naruto was right? About the peace ending soon?”

Shikamaru looked to his lifetime companion. “What’s gotten into you? Naruto is never right about anything. You know that.”

“Yeah,” said Chōji. “But is he wrong, though?”

Shikamaru let out a sigh. All around them the birds were chirping and hopping merrily from tree to tree, as if they were only too happy to live in a village full of trained assassins. “I dunno,” he said at last. “Based on historical precedent… We’ve had fourteen years of peace. I guess that’s a pretty long time.”

“Yeah,” said Chōji. He did not say anything else.

They kept walking in silence, not bothering to take any of the rooftop shortcuts that their fellow shinobi favoured. If not for their forest green chūnin jackets they could probably have passed for a pair of civilians. In truth, they should not even be wearing those jackets: Their team had failed the chūnin exams miserably, and all of Shikamaru’s supposed genius had done exactly nothing to change that. But in the end, family ties and politics had achieved what genius could not.

They finally spotted the others waiting for them near the short red bridge spanning the river where they had agreed to meet, and Shikamaru cursed as he noticed a mess of straw blond hair peeking out amongst the group. It was the wrong shade to be Ino and Naruto was not quite the type to wear pigtails in his hair, so that left only one possibility. “Temari of the Sand? What the hell is she doing here?”

“The Sand invited themselves to the meeting,” Chōji said awkwardly. “I guess I forgot to tell you that.”

The eldest of the Sand Siblings greeted them with one hand on the hip of her black kimono, looking none too impressed. “Well, look who decided to come join us. Konoha’s most noble clans – aside from all the others, that is. What, didn’t want to come but were too afraid of being left out to stay away?”

Shikamaru ignored her, and not just because she was irritatingly correct. “What’s going on here? Where is Team Seven?” There were five Leaf ninjas present in total as well as the Sand Siblings, and if anyone from the Hyūga clan saw them all standing together out in the open like this they would immediately realize that they were up to something. Tenten and Kiba might not think of that but the Kazekage’s children most certainly would, and the fact that they did not seem to care bothered him immensely.

“Naruto and Sasuke are getting some early morning training in with Lee,” Tenten said. She was leaning on her meter-long sealing scroll and eyed Kankuro warily. The black-clad Puppet Master seemed to have his thoughts elsewhere, however, for he kept glancing around at the rest of the Village. “They should be here soon.”

Shikamaru scratched his left ear, making sure to look maximally disinterested as he did so. “Seriously? Naruto can use Shadow Clones: How do you have the ability to be in multiple places at once and still manage to be late for your own meetings?” Not that Shadow Clones would ever prevent Shikamaru from oversleeping, but then he did not consider hypocrisy a vice so long as it was applied consistently.

“Uhm,” said Chōji, “technically, I think we’re the ones who are early. I guess your mother was a little overeager to get you out the door.” He rubbed his belly hungrily, signalling that he had received Shikamaru’s warning. “Hey, what about Sakura? Isn’t she coming?”

“Sakura is at the hospital with Ino,” said Kiba. The feral-looking boy was leaning against the wooden post of the river bridge, both arms crossed in a defensive posture. “Hinata and her cousin are doing their own training too, back at their place. I guess they’re all too busy to spend time with the rest of us – more power to us though, right Akamaru?” His great white dog barked happily at the mention of his name.

Shino adjusted his tinted glasses, which glinted darkly beneath his hood despite the sun. “Aren’t you the one who didn’t show up last time because you thought the whole thing to be a waste of time, Kiba?”

“Hey, that was because…” Kiba spluttered angrily, scrambling for a clever comeback that did not exist. “Damn it Shino, sometimes it’s like you have no sense of comradery, you know that?”

Shino opened his mouth to reply, but no sound came out, for right in that moment an explosion reverberated through the soil of the earth, causing the bridge and the buildings around them to shudder. A plume of fire and smoke had blasted upwards in the centre of the Village, followed almost immediately by a second and a third. Screams of pain and terror welled up in the throats of nearby civilians, but the sound came out garbled and unnaturally slow. Shikamaru had already activated his secret technique.

Shikamaru had not lied to Asuma-sensei back when Naruto nearly revealed his secret to everyone during the chūnin exams: The symbol he made with his hands when he needed to think was not in fact a hand sign. It was just there to distract people like Naruto from what he was really doing.

Chakra rushed through Shikamaru’s head as he instinctively opened the First Gate, a part of his mind having already loosened the valve inside his brain in response to stress. All ninjas knew how to focus chakra to their eyes to improve their vision, or even to improve their sense of smell like Kiba, but it never occurred to most of them that you could do the same to the brain. And yet, the fact that you could think fast enough to avoid obstacles when moving at superhuman speed meant that it had to be possible to do exactly that, and the Nara clan had taken that hidden knowledge and made it their greatest strength.

Focus, Shikamaru. Deep breaths. Of course, taking breaths was impossible: His lungs had frozen along with the rest of the world, or at least it seemed that way relative to his massively accelerated thoughts. At the edge of his field of vision he could just about see the Sand Siblings moving to attack. Temari was reaching for the metal folding fan on her back, while Kankuro made for his wooden puppet. The latter’s eyes were wide with panic.

Surprise? No, they were definitely waiting for this. A hitch in the plan, then. Perhaps it went off too early? It was impossible to tell for certain, but Shikamaru somehow doubted that the Kazekage had planned for his children to be surrounded by Leaf Ninjas when he made his move. Time for some diplomacy, then.

Time sprang back into being as Shikamaru leaped into action. “Kankuro and Temari of the Sand, stop in the name of the Kazekage!”

The two Sand ninjas froze on the spot, only the hands on their weapons betraying their intentions. “What?”

“I know of your secret plan,” Shikamaru said, ignoring the dazed and alarmed looks of his fellow Leaf ninjas (except Chōji, who stood ready to follow whatever orders Shikamaru was about to shout at him). “I know that the Kazekage is behind this attack, and that he didn’t plan for you to be here right now.” Even as he spoke, several more detonations shook the earth and the buildings around him, but he kept his eyes on his opponents. “If you care anything about your grieving father at all, you’ll stand down right now and let things play out as he would command if he were here.”

The black clad puppet master stared at him with a dumbstruck expression, but his sister was not so easily impressed. “He has a mental technique,” she said. “Possibly genjutsu based. Flare your chakra at random intervals and check your thoughts for deviations.” She lowered her right hand which had been on her fan and pointed it at Shikamaru, conveniently drawing her weapon in the process. “You. Nara. Give me one good reason why we shouldn’t fight for our Village if what you say is true.”

He raised his hands wardingly. “I’m not asking you to surrender, I’m just saying that a fight is against both our interests.” The important thing was to keep them talking. Their meeting spot was near the outskirts of the Uchiha district precisely to avoid being spotted, but it was still only a matter of time until someone noticed them. “The outcome of this battle will be decided with or without us. There’s no reason for a bunch of clan heirs to start killing each other right now – in fact our fathers would probably punish us for it.”

Kankuro looked at the five Leaf ninjas that surrounded him and wetted his lips nervously. “Sis? We’re uh, we’re kind of outnumbered here. Maybe sitting this one out isn’t such a bad idea.”

“You’re such a coward,” she spat. “These are the people who killed Gaara, or did you forget?”

“Of course not,” Kankuro said. He glanced at the giant siege crossbow which Tenten had pulled from her sealing scroll and which she was now aiming directly at him. “But…”

“What the hell is going on?” Kiba had stepped forward and was motioning angrily at Shikamaru. “The Village is under attack! Why are we talking to these traitors instead of fighting them? And how the fuck did you know about their secret plan? Whose side are you on, anyway?”

“Kiba, shut up,” Tenten hissed. “You’re ruining everything!”

Kankuro looked up in alarm. “Wait, ruining what? What are you planning?”

“Ignore them,” said Shikamaru. “They’re not-”

“Like hell,” Kiba cut him off. “We don’t take orders from you, rich boy. Come on Shino, Akamaru: Let’s kick their asses!”

The two Sand Ninjas grabbed their weapons, and the world froze once more. Shikamaru cursed inwardly as the chakra pounded through his head, the aftereffects of opening the first gate already starting to make themselves known. It would be worse after the second time, he knew.

He glared dourly at Kiba, whose mouth was frozen mid-curse. Shikamaru was too used to working with his team; that was the problem. Chōji and Ino knew not to question his decisions in a situation like this, but he had forgotten to take into account that this was not true for his other classmates.

Which was another way of saying that Kiba was a bloody idiot.

He tried to calm his thoughts, but there was little he could do. The adrenaline was already frozen in his veins, his vision locked on to the two Sand ninjas and Kiba behind them with no way to change the view. In the corner of his eye he could see the blurry form of Tenten pressing the trigger of her siege crossbow, its string about to release its massive payload at the person who had scared her senseless during the chūnin exam. Chōji had drawn his bō staff and was using his technique to expand it to an impossible length. Shino’s insects had flowed from his sleeves and were about to make their way to Temari in an attempt to take her out right from the start. Sensible, logical patterns of attack.

All of them would fail.

Kankuro and Temari had watched them fight during the exams, that was the problem. What was worse, Naruto had gotten them to share some of their techniques, and unlike them the Sand Ninjas had planned for this attack. Kankuro had known right from the start that Tenten would target him with that crossbow. Temari had seen with her own eyes how dangerous Shino’s insects could be, but she had also learned from Neji’s fight that they could be taken out with area-of-effect attacks. They would have counters ready for every one of them.

Shikamaru sighed inwardly. Above them, he could just barely make out the clouds drifting lazily above them. The clouds always seemed to move slowly, no matter the speed at which one’s thoughts flowed. Sometimes he wished he could just stay like that forever, hidden away in a world without time, but he always ran out of chakra eventually, and the ache that was left in his head was only that much harsher for his efforts.

Reality kicked back into being as Shikamaru formed the seals for his Shadow Paralysis technique, hoping against hope that he would make it in time. A black tendril extended from his feet towards Tenten’s crossbow even as Kankuro flicked his fingers and pulled her aim just slightly off-kilter with his chakra strings technique. The string snapped tout as the bolt hurled in Kiba’s direction, only for Shikamaru’s shadow to snatch it out of the air at the last second and drive it into the ground. Temari swung her fan and blew every one of Shino’s insects away with a hurricane of wind, crushing them into nothingness through sheer air pressure. Shino drew his curved blades even as Tenten began to activate a seal on her palm, while Kiba pounced towards Kankuro and Chōji brought his enlarged staff down upon Temari. The world froze once more.

Shikamaru cursed to himself as bright spots flared up in his vision, a side effect of forcing his chakra coils open for the third time. He would have a pounding headache if only his heart had time to pound.

The seal on Tenten’s palm was exactly the same as the one Naruto had used in his fight against Lee. That meant she was most likely about to blind everyone in front of her, which given that they surrounded the enemy would be absolutely disastrous. Temari had her back to Tenten and so would be able to instantly counter and kill the blinded Shino. Kiba would falter in his attack, leaving Kankuro free to intercept Chōji with a wide-area projectile attack that the Akimichi heir would not be able to see coming.

Ino was not here, that was the problem. Ino was supposed to let them communicate mentally, allowing them to instantly coordinate their attacks in accordance with Shikamaru’s insights. Without Ino, the best he could do was to watch his friends die in slow motion.

If Ino was here. It was funny. If someone had told him back at the academy that his last thoughts would be about Ino, he would have… He shook his thoughts away. There was no point in thinking about that now.

The world sprang back into motion as he sent his shadow racing towards Tenten, but it was already too late. A blast of light from Tenten’s palm evaporated the tendril of dark chakra along with the last of his hopes. Temari hurled a knife from her sleeve directly at the blinded Shino, passing right through the place where his body had been. It was not a shadow clone: Shino had teleported away somehow at the last second. A faint trace of chakra in Shikamaru’s skull left him just enough time to think there’s still a chance when the puppet on Kankuro’s back suddenly opened up and closed around the puppet master like a protective shell, causing Kiba’s attack to bounce off ineffectively even as a thousand poisoned needles fired in Chōji’s general direction.

Shikamaru watched his childhood friend stagger and stare dumbly at the sea of metal imbedded in his chest. Some of the needles had bounced off the protective armour plating that his clan favoured, while others remained stuck in the green chūnin vest which he had never truly earned, but Shikamaru knew perfectly well that a graze from even a single one of them would have been enough to do the job. Chōji took one more uncertain step forward and then crashed into the ground like a mighty oak tree.

Tenten dropped her beam of light and picked up her sealing scroll, cursing at Kankuro as she hurled a string of kunai with explosive tags at him, but Temari merely turned and hurled them back at her with a single swing of her fan. The detonations rang out in tandem with the explosions that were going off all around the Village now, her screams making her just one more panicked girl among many. Her body was hurled backwards and crashed against the wall of a nearby building with an almost inaudible thud.

Kiba grabbed a pair of pills from his pocket and swallowed one while feeding the other to his dog, and almost immediately their skin seemed to redden. Nails and teeth grew into claws and fangs as pure nature chakra coursed through them until you could barely tell the two savage combatants apart. The pair circled their enemy with perfect synchronicity, Kiba pouncing towards Temari while Akamaru leaped onto the back of Kankuro’s puppet and began to tear into its wooden frame. Before Shikamaru could react the top half of the puppet spun around and its four bladed arms each grabbed hold of one of Akamaru’s limbs. There was a sound of whirling blades as the wooden arms spun in four separate directions, and with an almost casual motion tossed four separate bundles of crimson fur back at Kiba. The feral boy caught them in surprise, only to look on in horror as his lifelong companion seeped between his fingers like so many hopes and dreams.

Kiba opened his mouth to let out a feral scream, but Temari merely collapsed her folding fan and swung its metal base against his face with a wet crunch. She brought her fan down a second time as he fell, this time caving in his chest. Then she calmly turned around, and looked Shikamaru directly in the eyes.

Shikamaru reached into his pouch and drew a dagger. If he could use his technique to find some flaw in her defences, then maybe, just maybe…

The world slowed down again as she came charging towards him, his last remaining chakra proving too little to even freeze his surroundings completely. His skull burned as his brain was slowly being turned to mush from overuse of the dangerous forbidden technique, but what did it matter? His ability to care would soon be extinguished, one way or another. As the metal folding fan crashed into him and he flew backwards, all he could think was that he was glad that Ino had not been there at least.

Above him, the clouds floated gently across the sky. Konoha really was a peaceful Village, he thought.