Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics - July 1

Rick Porcello delivers a pitch in the ninth inning Tuesday while throwing a four-hit shutout against the Oakland Athletics.

(Mike Mulholland)

DETROIT -- Following the 2014 season, Max Scherzer will sign a contract worth more than $100 million.

A year later, Rick Porcello likely will too.

Those who have not seen the incremental improvements Porcello has made since the start of the 2013 season have not been paying attention. Those who saw Porcello in his past two starts have seen something no Tigers fan has seen out of a hometown starting pitcher in almost 30 years.

Porcello threw a four-hit shutout Tuesday night in a 3-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics. In his previous start, Porcello threw a three-hit shutout in a 6-0 win over the Texas Rangers.

No Tigers pitcher has thrown shutouts in back-to-back starts since Jack Morris threw three consecutive shutouts in the 1986 season.

"That's pretty good company right there," Porcello said. "I'm honored to do something like that. More to the point, I'm happy that we won the first two games of this homestand. I think I said that in Texas. That's the most important thing to me."

The Tigers will reach the halfway point of their season Wednesday after their series finale against the A's. That will be their 81st game played. It's worth asking where they would be without Porcello.

The Tigers are eight games over .500 (12-4) in games started by Porcello (11-4). They are four games over .500 (34-30) in games started by Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Drew Smyly and Robbie Ray.

Those who say wins mean nothing are wrong. They don't mean a ton. They are fluky. Many people overvalue them. But they don't mean absolutely nothing. Pitchers who perform consistently and pitch deep into games tend to pick up more wins than those who don't. Porcello has pitched well this season. That's reflected in his record and in the team's record when he's on the mound.

Porcello pitched well in 2009, his rookie season, at the age of 20. He struggled to make major improvements over his next three seasons. But even though his ERA was still above 4.00 in 2013, other numbers showed that he had improved. Here are a few of them:

WHIP

2012:

2013:

Hits per nine innings

2012:

2013:

Strikeouts per nine innings

2012:

2013:

Opponents' batting average

2012:

2013:

Most all of those numbers have improved this season. Porcello has a 1.125 WHIP and has allowed 8.1 hits per nine innings. His strikeouts per nine innings (5.2) have leveled off, but opposing batters are hitting just .242 against him.

Scherzer will obviously sign a huge contract this offseason. He turned down an extension reportedly worth $144 million over six seasons from the Tigers. He'll most likely get more than that.

But is Porcello potentially a $100 million pitcher, too?

Why not? Here are some reasons he could be:

Inflation

Anibal Sanchez signed a five-year deal with the Tigers worth a guaranteed $80 million prior to the 2013 season. Is Porcello better than Sanchez? No. But figure in three years of baseball inflation -- which generally grows by more than a cost-of-living increase each year -- and it isn't difficult to imagine that Porcello could average about as much as Sanchez if he signs as a free agent three years later.

Age

Porcello will be just 26 years old when he hits free agency at the conclusion of the 2015 season. He'll be heading into his prime.

Durability

Porcello has made 29 or more starts in four of his first five season in the majors and has never made fewer than 27. He is ready and able to pitch every five days and has never had a serious injury. He doesn't spend time on the disabled list.

Pitching style

Porcello is a sinker baller. He doesn't light up the radar gun. He doesn't even try. Some starting pitchers are major injury risks as they age and their arm gains mileage. Porcello's style will increase his likelihood to stay healthy, which will reduce the risk of teams looking to sign him.

Comparisons

Check out Cincinnati Reds right-hander Homer Bailey. No, he and Porcello are not the same pitcher. Yes, Bailey has two no-hitters. But their career numbers are similar:

Porcello:

Bailey:

Bailey pitches in a hitter-friendly ballpark, which hurts his numbers. He also pitches in the National League, which helps them.

How about advanced stats? Here are the numbers, prior to Tuesday's game, according to baseball-reference.com:

Porcello:

Bailey:

Bailey signed a six-year extension worth $105 million in the offseason. He also had a year of arbitration eligibility remaining. The Reds would have had to pay him even more if he hadn't.

Porcello has never been an All-Star. (That, of course, might change this season.) But he continues to show improvement at a relatively young age, considering how long he's been in the league.

"He hasn't even touched his ceiling," outfielder Torii Hunter said. "He's not even close."

What does Porcello have to do to make a major score as a free agent? Of course, he needs to continue to pitch well, to show improvement, to stay healthy over the next 15 months.

It also wouldn't hurt his cause if he can throw 200 innings this season and next. Porcello averaged 5.8 innings per start over his first five seasons. He needs to bump that up a bit. (It's worth noting that he has averaged exactly 6 2/3 innings per start this season, which puts him on pace for 213 1/3 innings in 2014.)

So, what could Porcello potentially sign for when he hits free agency? Let's assume he stays healthy. Let's assume that he continues to pitch well. Of course, no one is suggesting he will post a 3.12 ERA -- his current ERA -- for the remainder of the 2014 season and all of 2015. But let's assume the days of the mid-4.00 ERAs and 1.500 WHIPs are behind him.

Also, don't forget that Porcello is making $8.5 million this season. He will make more than $10 million -- probably closer to $12 million -- in 2015.

Let's put his first free-agent contract at five years with an option year or even six years straight. How much will Porcello sign for prior to the 2016 season?

Does $17.5 million per season sound out of line? That's $105 million over six years. Those numbers seem reasonable.

If Porcello continues to improve, those numbers might be low.

Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics - July 1, 2014 20 Gallery: Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics - July 1, 2014

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