Green Party Leader Elizabeth May sits down for an interview in Ottawa on Wednesday, June 20, 2018. iPolitics/Matthew Usherwood

The federal Green Party is seeing a record-level of support among Canadians, some pollsters suggest.

Frank Graves, founder and president of EKOS research, said the Greens are running around 10 points nationally in their internal polls, up from their normal five- to eight-point range.

This is the first time in recent memory the Greens have shored up this much support throughout the country, he said.

“They’re doing as well as they ever have,” Graves told iPolitics. “If there was an election tomorrow, they’d probably win a handful of seats.”

Graves said small parties with a strong regional base tend to win seats in the House of Commons when voters get fed up with the status quo of traditional parties.

The Reform Party of Canada gained 52 seats in the 1993 election (two seats behind the Bloc Québécois, which held official Opposition status at the time) by promising to promote Western Canada’s interests. More recently, the Orange Wave of support for the NDP under former leader Jack Layton rocketed the party from its traditional third-party status to official Opposition in the wake of the 2011 federal election. The move was possible because of an unprecedented number of seats gained by the leader throughout Quebec.

Graves said the Greens could enjoy a “modest breakthrough” if they focus their efforts in British Columbia. The Greens are polling around 20 points throughout the province, with high points on Vancouver Island, where the party is leading in several ridings.

Part of the Greens’ popularity in British Columbia, Graves suggests, is thanks to the success the party has enjoyed on the provincial level. The B.C. Green Party under Andrew Weaver holds the balance of power after being elected with 16 per cent of the vote, something Graves said is the “highest for any Green party in North America … ever.”

“They’re building on some momentum there,” he said.

The Greens also recently celebrated landmark victories in other provinces. Ontario’s last provincial election saw Green Party leader Mike Schreiner become the first Green member ever elected to that province’s legislature. A handful of members also represent the party in provincial legislatures in PEI and New Brunswick.

At the federal level though, the party is still challenged with translating this strong support in the polls into actual votes. David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said it’s too soon to tell if Green support (which in their polls hovers around seven points) will translate to actual seats.

“It’s a problem they’ve always had – finding issues that resonate with voters and making the case that a vote for the Greens isn’t a wasted vote,” he said. “All smaller parties have this challenge in our current electoral system.”

Coletto has still found there’s untapped potential for the Greens, with 35 per cent of Canadians saying they would consider voting for the party.

Part of the reason Canadians could vote green, Graves said, is an almost perfect storm of conditions the party could turn into support.

Coletto and Graves said one issue top of mind for Canadians is climate change. An Abacus Data poll from 2017 found 85 per cent of their respondents believe inaction on climate change will create severe consequences in a range of areas.

The concern translates to the way politicians decide their top issues, with 49 per cent of the poll’s respondents saying they would not consider voting for a party or candidate who does not have a plan to address climate change.

The Green’s dedication to climate change is also attractive to millennials, who are now the biggest collective voting group in the upcoming federal election.

“Young people are the key demographic: that should really be target number one,” Coletto said.

But the fight for the young hearts and minds of the country will not be easy. Coletto said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to be popular with young voters and could cause some problems for Elizabeth May and her party looking to tap into the millennial vote.

What the party needs to do to win the young vote, Coletto continued, is to create disillusionment on Trans Mountain, electoral reform and climate change.

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