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A “super El Niño” stronger than any since 1998 will probably bring us a warmer winter, Environment Canada says. But it won’t cancel skiing and skating.

“There’s no guarantee — there never is with weather — but it shows you the dice are loaded to give you a milder winter,” said David Phillips of Environment Canada.

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Phillips says every computer model and every forecaster agrees this year: A huge reservoir of heat, in the form of warm ocean water, is coming our way in the Pacific.

That energy has to go somewhere, and during an El Niño winter it spreads warmth and humidity eastward. The effects are strongest in Western Canada.

To qualify as an El Niño, the surface of the Pacific must be more than half a degree above normal, Phillips said. This year the surface from Alaska down to Chile is two to three degrees higher, and in some spots more than three degrees.

So, what does it mean to us?

• The Environment Canada temperature map for November through January shows yellows and reds, meaning warmer than normal in almost the whole country. An exception in southern Ontario shows white (normal) but Phillips says even this has warmed up since the map was published.