Justin Trudeau begins new year down from 2017 high

The latest Campaign Research Poll conducted among a sample of 1,887 Canadian voters found that support for the Liberals was up +4pts from the latter part of 2017. Liberal support currently stands at 42%. Millennials were most inclined to support the Liberals (52%) along with those from Toronto, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. It appears that the Liberals weathered the storm well and that voters have forgotten or forgiven the Liberals for the various contentious issues they faced in 2017. Support for the Conservatives remained consistent with previous months, with 29% of decided voters supporting them. NDP have lost most of their support to the Liberals, as their support fell -3pts, to 16%. This currently puts them in a tie with their lowest result of 2017.

While voters appear to have forgiven the Liberal party, Justin Trudeau’s approval remained consistent with his November approval, at 47%. However, his disapproval inched up +2pts to 40%. Older Canadians (65+) are the most likely to disapprove of Trudeau (48%) while millennials are most likely to approve of him (55%). Andrew Scheer’s approval remained consistent with his November approval rating at 22%, while Jagmeet Singh gained +2pts, bringing him to an overall approval of 25%. Both leaders, while being relatively new, have yet to capture the imaginations and hearts of Canadian voters, and must do something to shake up their relatively low approval ratings if they wish to meaningfully compete with Trudeau.

“After being disgruntled with the Liberals for a couple of months, Canadians appear to have forgiven. Interestingly, voters don’t appear to have forgiven Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau. This could prove problematic for the party as Canadians may put the blame on the contentious issues the Liberals faced, squarely with Trudeau, which could prove to be a liability to them, if not addressed properly.” – said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 ext. 109.

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between Janurary 9th to 11th 2018, The study was conducted among a random sample from an online panel of 1,887 Canadian voters whose incentives for participation were handled by the panel provider and who were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data.

A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3%, 19 out of 20 times. Data was weighted by age, gender and regions of Canada according to 2016 Statistics Canada census data. If you require more information, please contact us as it is available upon request.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"