Who will win the race to finish in the top four?

Who will finish in the top four? We crunch the numbers and find Liverpool have the toughest run-in of the clubs aiming to join Chelsea and Man City in the Champions League qualifying places...

Sky Bet's Top Four Odds Arsenal - 4/11

Manchester Utd - 2/5

Southampton - 12/5

Liverpool - 7/2

Tottenham - 4/1

West Ham - 80/1

Chelsea and Manchester City may have their sights set on the title but behind them there is a fierce – and closely contested – race for a top four spot.

Currently Manchester United and Southampton are in prime position to join the top two in the final Champions League qualifying positions. However, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool are in hot pursuit and with just five points separating third to seventh, the battle for a place in Europe’s elite club competition could go down to the wire.

Each side has 13 games remaining – but who has the more favourable fixtures? And which sides can be confident about facing their upcoming opposition?

We try to work out which of the five sides have a tougher run-in given the average league position of their remaining opponents and their record against them this season...

Liverpool

Liverpool travel to Southampton, Arsenal and Chelsea, with City and United to play at Anfield

Average opponent position: 9.5

Points already won against remaining opposition: 23

Liverpool – on paper, at least – have the toughest run in of the lot, with the final 13 sides they have to face averaging a Premier League position of 9.5. The Reds have seven away games remaining, including trips to Southampton, Arsenal and Chelsea, with Man City and Man United to play at Anfield. Liverpool have taken 23 points from their remaining opponents already this season and a repeat would leave them with 65 points. However, that total would only have secured seventh last season. Will their Europa League tests act as a distraction or a fillip?

Top four odds: 7/2

Man United

United visit Liverpool and Chelsea, with Man City and Arsenal to play at Old Trafford

Average opponent position: 9.9

Points already won against remaining opposition: 23

Manchester United have the second-toughest remaining fixtures, with the opponents they have left to face averaging a Premier League position of 9.9. United have seven away games to play, including visits to Liverpool and Chelsea. Louis van Gaal’s side will also host Man City and Arsenal at Old Trafford. However, unlike Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham they do not have to worry about European competition – although, if they can only match the 23 points they’ve already taken off their remaining opponents, that will leave them with 70 points, which would have secured sixth last year.

Top four odds: 2/5

Arsenal

Arsenal travel to United, and play Liverpool and Chelsea at home

Average opponent position: 11.1

Points already won against remaining opposition: 27

Arsenal have a better run-in, in theory, compared to Liverpool and Manchester United, and have one fewer away day than the other teams in the hunt. They can also take heart from the fact they have already taken 27 points from their remaining opponents. However, a repeat of that haul would leave them on 72 points which would only have seen them finish fifth last term. That means they’ll have to be at their best for their trip to Old Trafford and home games with Liverpool and Chelsea. How a Champions League run would affect them remains to be seen.

Top four odds: 4/11

Tottenham

Tottenham visit United and Southampton and play Man City at White Hart Lane

Average opponent position: 11.4

Points already won against remaining opposition: 28

In terms of points already gained, Tottenham have the best run-in of the five teams we’re examining. Spurs have garnered 28 points from the opponents they have left to face – who average a league position of 11.4 – although a repeat would see them finish with 71 points, which was only good enough for sixth last season. With away days at Manchester United and Southampton to come, plus a clash with Manchester City at White Hart Lane, Mauricio Pochettino’s men will have to find a way to balance their Europa League commitments and top-four charge.

Top four odds: 4/1

Southampton

Southampton travel to Chelsea and Man City and face Liverpool and Spurs at home

Average opponent position: 11.7

Points already won against remaining opposition: 21

Southampton have the easier finish to the season on paper, with their opponents averaging a league position of 11.7 – but, of the five clubs we’re looking at, Saints have also taken the fewest points from the remaining teams they have to face. Like United, Southampton don’t have to worry about European distractions, but trips to the current top two, Chelsea and Man City, plus home fixtures with Liverpool and Tottenham, will give Ronald Koeman’s side plenty to focus on. Another 21-point haul would only get them to 67 points, which would have seen them finish seventh last season.

Top four odds: 12/5

Conclusion

Tottenham and Southampton have the most favourable fixtures, according to the stats

Without domestic or European cup competitions to worry about, plus the most favourable fixture run-in on average, Southampton seem well placed to secure a top four finish. However, amid their remaining 13 games are tough tests against four sides in the top seven, while a less than encouraging points haul against their opposition left to face could be a concern.

Capital One Cup final heartbreak or elation could deflate or inspire Spurs, while Pochettino’s side, like Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool could also face a congested fixture list with cup games to come.

The raw stats suggest Liverpool face a tough task to make the cut, although a finish like the one they put together last season could propel them into contention.

One thing seems guaranteed, though: the battle for a top four spot is going to be an engrossing race right to the last. Stick with Sky Sports to watch it unfold.

Watch Southampton v Liverpool live on Sky Sports 1 HD from 4pm on Sunday