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The critical number in Quebec right now isn’t how many people have the new coronavirus, but how many other people they and perhaps others who are not yet showing symptoms will infect, experts in disease control say.

So while some people might think the Quebec government’s announcements this weekend banning visits to seniors’ residences, long-term care facilities and hospitals and ordering bars, gyms and other public places to close are overkill, the aggressive measures are being welcomed by scientists.

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“There’ll be more cases, we have to be realistic,” said Hélène Carabin, a professor of epidemiology in the Université de Montréal’s faculty of veterinary medicine and at the university’s school of public health.

“It’s a global thing. It’s not going to go away. But we don’t want it to infect people too quickly so that the health system can absorb whatever comes its way.”

Based on places like China, older people are more likely to experience the most severe symptoms of COVID-19 and a higher proportion of older people than younger people die from it, she said.