The warming assessment of countries’ pledges reflect the warming expected in 2100 with only a median (>50%) likelihood, compared to pre-industrial levels. The underlying emissions scenarios may therefore result in a temporary overshoot of the warming assessment. The countries’ warming assessments presented here should therefore be considered as a minimum to achieve a warming goal, and countries’ pledges in line only with a 2 °C warming are therefore not be consistent with the Paris Agreement goals. Only countries with pledges leading to a 2100-warming below 1.5 °C could be in line with the Paris Agreement goals of ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C’.

The relationship between the 2100 global warming and the national 2030-emissions relies on a range of global emissions scenarios. The underlying global emissions scenarios and methods are available here.

Emissions from land use (LULUCF emissions) are not included since no universal accounting method of positive or negative LULUCF emissions is currently in place and since they are not considered by all parties as part of the emissions scope to be negotiated.