The GOP establishment’s plotting to defeat Donald Trump is intensifying, with strategists charting a course that winds all the way to the Republican National Convention.

It’s a bank shot, one that requires John Kasich and Marco Rubio to hold off Trump next week in Ohio and Florida, politically crucial states that award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. And it requires Ted Cruz to fend him off in upcoming conservative bastions.


But, even as uncertainty reigns and some harbor doubts about whether Trump can be stopped, planning is underway for a months-long, grind-it-out primary battle that would conclude with a dramatic fight for the nomination in Cleveland.

Well-heeled donors, who have funneled millions of dollars to anti-Trump groups, are in preliminary talks to convene a meeting or conference call after March 15, a crucial day on the nominating calendar that will play a major role in determining whether the billionaire can be stopped. The purpose, according to three sources involved in the planning: to assess whether the multimillion-dollar offensive against Trump is working — and, in the words of one, “what the path forward would be.”

By March 15, anti-Trump groups say they are likely to have spent between $12 million and $15 million in Florida and another $5 million to $7 million in Illinois, another delegate-rich state voting that day — a big sum, even by the enormous spending standards of today’s presidential campaigns. Stop-Trump strategists now say they’re considering replicating the approach in later states on the primary calendar. The objective: to deprive the mogul of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the GOP nomination and force him to an unpredictable convention where his victory would be anything but certain.

“It’s the only real way to stop Trump,” said Vin Weber, a prominent Republican lobbyist and former Minnesota congressman.

In Washington circles, talk of a contested contention — something typically regarded as far-fetched and wildly implausible — has reached a fever pitch.

Top donors and operatives have taken to passing around a new book, “Chaos: The Outsiders Guide to a Contested Republican National Convention.” The 228-page volume, by veteran Republican strategist John Yob, is a detailed manual for how a Cleveland fight would play out. In the book, Yob, Rand Paul’s national political director and a top aide on John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, argues that the Republican Party is more likely to have a contested convention this year than at any point since the last one, in 1976. That year, Gerald Ford beat back a challenge from Ronald Reagan.

“All those activists and politicos won’t be attending the same old dog and pony show that they can usually expect at a convention,” Yob writes. “Instead, they will arrive spoiling for a fight — a fight to pick the Republican nominee for president, and maybe a fight for the future of the GOP itself.”

In an interview, Yob said candidates and operatives had begun reaching out to him to tell him they’d been reading his book.

“The response has been great and growing by the day as more people realize that we are heading to a contested convention,” he said.

The idea of a convention battle — a topic of conversation usually reserved for only the most serious of political aficionados — is even entering the pop culture fray. This June, days before the Cleveland drama begins, former Mitt Romney strategist Stuart Stevens will be releasing a novel, “The Innocent Have Nothing to Fear,” with a plot centered on a contested convention. According to the novel’s description, its protagonist, JD Callahan, is a political operative whose client, “the sitting vice president, is neck and neck with an anti-immigrant, right-wing populist as the Republicans head into their first brokered convention in decades.”

Stevens said there are only two ways for the real-life Republican nomination battle to conclude: With Trump reaching the 1,237-delegate threshold ahead of the July convention, or with his rivals forcing him to a convention firefight.

“Short of a Trump collapse, this is going to play out on one of two ways,” he said. “It’s a numbers game.”

The idea that Trump may fall short of meeting the delegate mark may serve to keep Trump’s three rivals in the race — even if they’re lagging badly. As long as there is the possibility of a Cleveland fight, where they could play a prominent role or even secure the nomination, it may make more sense for them to stay in than drop out.

“I’m not convinced Rubio or Kasich pull out. If they feel there’s a chance for a contested convention, they’ll feel like they still have a shot at it,” said Jonathan Barnett, an Arkansas Republican National Committeeman.

Behind the scenes, campaigns are deep into preparation for a possible contested convention. Kasich, still winless after losing Michigan on Tuesday, has tapped Jai Chabria, a longtime aide and loyalist, to help oversee his Cleveland planning. Rubio, with just two victories under his belt, has selected Henry Barbour, an influential RNC committeeman from Mississippi.

To some, it won’t be possible to tell whether Republicans are headed to a contested convention until March 15. On that day, 367 delegates — nearly 15 percent of all the party’s delegates will be awarded. A Trump win in Florida and Ohio, many contend, would give him an insurmountable lead. A loss in either state, on the other hand, could leave an opening for his rivals.

“Next week is very important,” said Mel Martinez, a former RNC chairman. “I would favor a convention that was open if it would deny Trump the nomination. However if he does well next week this may be moot.”

Others say it will take until the end of March for the picture to become clearer. By that point, nearly two-thirds of all delegates will have been allocated.

In the event the race does go to a contested convention, there’s disagreement over how it would play out — and whether it would help Trump or hurt him. In a process dominated by political insiders and party regulars, some are convinced that Trump would fare poorly. After the first ballot, many delegates would be allowed to vote for a candidate who did not win their home state.

Others, however, say it’s a mistake to think Trump would collapse at a convention, especially if he enters it with a delegate lead. Will the GOP establishment really want to deny the insurgent outsider the nomination — a ploy that could alienate his legions of backers and leave the party bitterly divided?

And then there’s the Trump-as-wheeler-dealer factor. If he were on the precipice of reaching the delegate threshold, the mogul — a self-proclaimed master of the deal — could forge a compromise and invite someone onto his ticket.

“The speculation that someone other than Trump could emerge as the nominee at a divided convention ignores the simple fact that if Trump goes into Cleveland with the most delegates, he has the upper hand,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, who was Mitt Romney’s senior adviser in 2012. “No one should underestimate Trump's ability to make a deal that could win him majority support.”

