Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) has connected the East Bay with San Francisco and the Peninsula for over 40 years. Since 2010, ridership has increased by over 100,000. While BART is running the most service it has ever done in its history, overcrowding and delays have also increased throughout the system.

A previous series on this blog, BART’s 10-Year Road Map (Part 1: Operations, Part 2: Capital Construction), gave an approximate timeline on how BART can upgrade its transit systems to better serve its customers. This series will offer a more technical analysis, illustrating how BART can increase throughput, i.e. trains per hour (tph), to more efficiently serve its existing customers. This first article focuses on a narrower time period, approximately five years, and will thus focus on how BART plans to improve its rail service plan in the near future. By optimizing its rail operations, BART can significantly reduce operating costs and wear and tear on its fleet, while providing superior service for riders.

Off-Peak Service

Current Off-Peak Rail Service (2016)

During off-peak hours (nights and Sundays), three BART lines run on 20-minute headways: Richmond – Fremont, Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City, and Pittsburg / Bay Point – SFO / Millbrae. BART requires 25 train sets and ~211 cars to operate this minimum service. On Saturdays, two additional BART lines run: Richmond – Daly City and Fremont – Daly City (each of which require 7 trains to operate), for a total of 39 trains and approximately ~281 cars in service. The table below summarizes the rail service plan.

Line NB (min) SB (min) # of trains # of cars Richmond – Fremont 62 63 8 ~48 Richmond – Daly City (Sat) 53 53 7 ~35 Fremont – Daly City (Sat) 63 63 7 ~35 Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City 63 62 7 ~63 Pittsburg / Bay Point – Millbrae 91 92 10 ~100 Total – Sunday – – 25 ~211 Total – Saturday – – 39 ~281

Current off-peak service runs inefficiently. The base off-peak rail service plan provides too little service, with only 6 transbay / SF trains per direction per hour and long 20-minute headways at most outlying stations. The Saturday rail service plan fills in service gaps along the Richmond – Fremont line, but does so sub-optimally. In particular, stations south of Lake Merritt are overserved, and trains depart Fremont on an uneven 4-16-4-16 minute headway pattern.

The following service plans assume little to no weekend construction: given the lack of extra tracks in the system, BART is simply not able to run efficient service if tracks are taken out of service.

Proposed Sunday Base Service Plan – 15 minute headways, 3 lines:

Line NB (min) SB (min) # of train sets # of cars Richmond – Fremont 62 63 10 ~60 Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City 63 62 9 ~72 Pittsburg / Bay Point – Millbrae 91 92 13 ~117 Total – – 32 ~249

On Sundays before 7pm, headways should be reduced to 15 minutes. This plan significantly shortens wait times and increases capacity by roughly 30 percent throughout the system, which can improve operations during spikes in ridership, e.g. after sports games. Running trains at 15-minute headways would require 7 additional train operators and approximately 40 more cars to be put in service.

BART operated this service plan briefly in 2008, before recession-induced budget deficits forced headways to revert to 20 minutes. Nowadays, BART is unable to operate a high level of off-peak service because the existing fleet is strained by heavy commute-time usage and needs to be inspected for maintenance outside of peak hours. Nonetheless, as the Fleet of the Future comes into operation over the next 5 years, BART can consider reimplementing this service plan, especially as Transbay traffic is expected to worsen in the future.

Off-Peak Service Plan Phase 2 – 15 minute headways, 5 lines:

Line NB (min) SB (min) # of trains # of cars Richmond – Coliseum 36 37 6 ~24 Richmond – Daly City 53 53 8 ~35 Fremont – Daly City 63 63 9 ~35 Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City 63 62 9 ~72 Pittsburg / Bay Point – Millbrae 91 92 13 ~117 Total – – 45 ~283

This service plan, a modified version of BART’s Phase 2 proposal in its 2013 SCOA, would be adopted once weekend patronage surpasses 250,000 riders. All five lines run at 15 minute headways, similar to current midday service. This rail service plan offers weekday-level service to San Francisco at nearly all stations, while requiring about the same number of cars used by existing Saturday service.

The biggest change is the truncation of the East Bay (Orange) line at Coliseum. Because most East Bay off-peak riders are traveling to and from San Francisco stations, full time Fremont service would run through the Transbay Tube. To maximize train loads, the Orange line would terminate at Coliseum, a major stop serving the sports stadium and OAK International Airport. Alternatively, the train can terminate at South Hayward or Bay Fair (as proposed in the SCOA), though additional platforms and/or crossovers would need to be constructed. In addition, Dublin / Pleasanton and Fremont trains would not be coupled at Bay Fair station, allowing for consistent 7.5 minute headway service to SF at all stations between Lake Merritt and San Leandro.

Peak Service

Current Peak Rail Service (2016)

BART runs a more complex rail service plan during peak hours, with several supplemental short turn trains on the Pittsburg / Bay Point line. As of February 2016, BART requires 62 trains to run peak service; the table below lists the end-to-end running times and fleet requirements of every line. Note that the opening of the Warm Springs and Berryessa extensions in the future will require additional train sets, increasing the peak load requirements.

Line NB (min) SB (min) # of trains # of cars Richmond – Fremont 60 61 9 (5-8 cars each) ~64 Richmond – Millbrae 66 69 10 (8-10 cars each) ~92 Fremont – Daly City 63 63 9 (9-10 cars each) ~93 Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City 63 62 9 (9 cars each) 90 Pittsburg / Bay Point – SFO 89 86 12 (10 cars each) 120 Pleasant Hill – SF (Peak Service) Variable Variable 8 (9 cars each) 72 Spare Sets – – 4 38 Total – – 61 579

Optimizing Peak Hour Capacity

Given current trends, BART is expected to have a daily ridership of 500,000 within ten years. Optimizing existing train service will be crucial to keep the system running efficiently, especially during the congested peak hours. There are two improvements that can be reasonably implemented within this timeframe:

Run 10-car transbay trains during peak hour: The source of BART’s current capacity brunch is not the Transbay Tube but rather the existing fleet size. Given that most trains run with 8 or 9 cars, running all transbay trains with 10 cars would increase capacity by roughly 15 percent. BART management has already signaled that it will do so in FY 2017, upon the arrival of the new fleet. Note that the new train fleet has additional doors per car, which is expected to further reduce dwell times at the busiest stations and thus the chance of systemwide delays. By running on time, the trains will naturally suffer less wear and tear, leading to savings in the long run. Construct the Richmond crossover: Unlike Fremont or Dublin / Pleasanton trains, all trains terminating at Richmond must currently proceed past the station into the Richmond Yard and reverse direction there. A crossover preceding the terminal, similar to the set-up at Fremont, would allow trains to turn back more quickly. One fewer train would be needed to run service on the Millbrae and Fremont lines each, for an overall fleet requirement reduction of 15-20 cars. These cars can then be allocated towards other transbay trains.

Line NB (min) SB (min) # of trains # of cars Richmond – Berryessa 80 80 11 (6 cars each) 66 Richmond – Millbrae 66 69 9 (10 cars each) 90 Berryessa – Daly City 83 83 12 (10 cars each) 120 Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City 63 62 9 (10 cars each) 90 Pittsburg / Bay Point – SFO 89 86 12 (10 cars each) 120 Pleasant Hill – SF (Peak Service) Variable Variable 8 (10 cars each) 80 Spare Sets – – 4 40 Total – – 65 606

With the Richmond crossover in place, BART only requires around 30 additional cars in service to make all Transbay trains, including those to Warm Springs / Berryessa, 10 cars. The new fleet of 775, up from 662 today, should be able to accommodate growing ridership for the next 15 years.

Future Service

When daily ridership eventually surpasses past 550,000, the Transbay Tube will have reached its existing capacity. In preparation, BART is working to replace its outdated signaling system with Communication-based Train Control (CBTC), which will enable trains to run closer together in the Transbay Tube. BART will then be able to run trains at 2 minute headways, resulting in an additional 25 percent increase in transbay capacity. However, more infrastructure improvements will be needed to accommodate this service. The following is a partial list of infrastructural improvements that need to be undertaken to do so:

Purchasing more trains. The new fleet of 775 trains is capable of providing 15-minute peak service on all lines, but 12-minute headways requires an increase of approximately 300 trains for use during rush hours. Additional short turns: To reduce the peak hour fleet requirement, some trains should reverse before the end of their line. Unfortunately, BART would not be able to reverse trains at Montgomery or 24 St, where train traffic is highest. Instead, BART will need to construct a pocket track, likely south of Glen Park, to do so.

Further details will be discussed in a future post.