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Toxic gases and lava billowed from the top of the Bardarbunga volcano for nearly six months last year in the biggest Icelandic eruption for two centuries. In this time, the volcano spewed enough lava to cover an area the size of Manhattan -- and three times as much toxic gas than all man-made sources in Europe, according to new research.

The eruption started in August, 2014, and continued until February, 2015. At points, the volcano expelled as much as 120 kilotons of gases a day, eight times the rate of all European industry.


What's more surprising -- or concerning -- is that an even bigger eruption could be on the way. In preparation for this, researchers at the universities of Edinburgh and Leeds have devised a system to monitor the volume and distance of toxic gas flow. "This was a truly spectacular eruption -- the biggest in Iceland for more than 200 years. It became clear very quickly that the eruption was producing truly staggering amounts of sulphur dioxide -- a toxic gas," Anja Schmidt, author of the study from the University of Leeds, tells WIRED.

During the eruption, enough sulphur dioxide made it into the atmosphere that Icelandic snow was recorded with the same PH level as grapefruit juice. At the height of the volcanic activity, Icelandic authorities closed schools, cancelled outdoor sports games and advised people to stay inside.

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And it was not just a precaution; acid rain can stunt the growth of crops and livestock, exacerbate asthma symptoms, and dissolve limestone buildings. Large amounts of sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere has also been linked to climate change. While it doesn’t appear that there were any long-term consequences, more violent volcanic activity could be on its way.

John Stevenson, co-author of the study at the University of Edinburgh, told WIRED, "For the next two decades we'll be in the peak of Icelandic rifting period" -- a period of heightened volcanic activity that occurs every 140 years or so -- meaning "there will be a chance that there will be more eruptions like this one in the next 20 years."

The worst case scenario would be a repeat of the 1783 eruption of Laki, which was 10 times as violent as this recent one. "It killed three quarters of the sheep and cattle [in Iceland]," said Stevenson. "There was a famine and they considered evacuating the whole island of Iceland it was so bad." "Our research highlights that volcanic gases and aerosol particles from Icelandic volcanic eruptions can be transported over long distances and affect air quality in the UK and northern Europe," added Schmidt. The last eruption that had wide scale consequences for Europe was Eyjafjallajökull in the Spring of 2010, which released enough ash to close European air space for over a week.

If an eruption of the scale of Laki occurs, Schmidt estimates 100,000 people would die in the UK due to poor air quality.


Despite the high stakes, and extensive new research, the team says that the overall effects of toxic gases from volcanic eruptions are hard to monitor. During the Bardarbunga volcano no tracking system was available, and the remote location and the weather conditions meant experts were unable to solve the issue in real time.

Fortunately next time should be slightly easier to track, if not actually affect the impact; Schmidt and Stevenson said they have built a new model with the UK Met Office to help predict where the toxic gas will flow using satellite data and computer modelling. "This was a really good test for if we would be able to detect the gas and predict when it was going to come. And it seems that it worked out fairly well. The satellites were able to see the gas and by putting the right numbers into the computer modelling they were able to get it to go to the right places and come at the right time."

The system requires improvement, but Stevenson hopes the model can map toxic gases as they're spewed, enable affected populations to react -- and minimise their impact