Sen. Rand Paul Randal (Rand) Howard PaulRand Paul says he can't judge 'guilt or innocence' in Breonna Taylor case Overnight Health Care: Health officials tell public to trust in science | Despair at CDC under Trump influence | A new vaccine phase 3 trial starts Health officials tell public to trust in science MORE (R-Ky.) is in serious danger of missing out on next week’s GOP debate main stage as his polling continues to sputter nationally and in early states.

While CNN has given candidates three avenues to qualify for the main stage — meeting either a 3.5 percent average national threshold or a 4 percent average threshold in Iowa or New Hampshire — Paul has failed to muster enough support as of Friday morning, according to The Hill’s analysis of qualifying polls.

It appears that Iowa is his only hope, as he is almost guaranteed to miss out on the national and New Hampshire thresholds. With an average of 3.5 percent in Iowa on Friday morning, he would need at least two polls averaging his best performance in Iowa, 5 percent, to hit the 4 percent threshold.

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CNN will consider qualifying polling until 5 p.m. on Sunday, leaving Paul only this weekend to flip the script.

Missing out on the primetime event would be a significant blow for a campaign that has been on a downward trend with fewer than two months to go before primary season. The Iowa caucuses will be held on Feb. 1, with New Hampshire's primary a week later.

The snub could worry donors, limiting his ability to fundraise. Paul raised just $2.5 million last quarter, lower than any other candidate with a main stage appearance except for former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark).

Falling off the main event isn’t necessarily a death knell, however. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie looks to be a lock to jump back into the primetime debate after Fox Business News criteria knocked him down to the “happy-hour” debate. His fortunes turned around in part after a lauded performance in that undercard debate, positive buzz surrounding an emotional video on drug abuse and the endorsement of the powerful New Hampshire Union Leader.

He has completely reversed his fortunes in New Hampshire. Lost in the middle of the pack just one month ago, Christie’s stock is rising in New Hampshire, where he just hit double digits in a WBUR poll released on Friday.

The same can’t be said for Huckabee, who fell down into the second-tier debate with Christie last month. He’ll reprise his role in the early debate and remains a far cry from any of the thresholds.

Carly Fiorina, the only female candidate on the GOP side, will likely stay on the main stage as long as she doesn’t face a dramatic dip at the polls in New Hampshire, the only state where she has met the threshold.

CNN’s national cut-off is higher than all prior debates, but many candidates are saved by the inclusion of state data. CNN is the first network to include state polling. Of the 14 GOP candidates, only five — Donald Trump Donald John TrumpBiden on Trump's refusal to commit to peaceful transfer of power: 'What country are we in?' Romney: 'Unthinkable and unacceptable' to not commit to peaceful transition of power Two Louisville police officers shot amid Breonna Taylor grand jury protests MORE, Ben Carson, Sen. Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzCruz blocks amended resolution honoring Ginsburg over language about her dying wish Trump argues full Supreme Court needed to settle potential election disputes Press: Notorious RBG vs Notorious GOP MORE (Texas), Sen. Marco Rubio Marco Antonio RubioOvernight Defense: Pentagon redirects pandemic funding to defense contractors | US planning for full Afghanistan withdrawal by May | Anti-Trump GOP group puts ads in military papers Democrats step up hardball tactics as Supreme Court fight heats up Press: Notorious RBG vs Notorious GOP MORE (Fla.) and former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) are polling above 4 percent nationally in CNN’s qualifying polls.

Along with Christie and Fiorina, Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) will also appear on the main stage, buoyed by stronger numbers in the Granite State.

If Paul falls off, he’ll join former Sen. Rick Santorum (Penn.), Sen. Lindsey Graham Lindsey Olin GrahamSenate GOP aims to confirm Trump court pick by Oct. 29: report The Hill's Campaign Report: GOP set to ask SCOTUS to limit mail-in voting Senate GOP sees early Supreme Court vote as political booster shot MORE (S.C.) and former New York Gov. George Pataki in the 6 p.m. undercard debate.