Data-Driven Innovation Lab

Covid-19

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Theof the Singapore University of Technology and Design has come up with a set of data-driven predictions of the next developments and end dates ofin different countries. The website, ddi.sutd.edu.sg, says “For each country, a simple figure is provided to show the estimated pandemic life cycle together with the actual data or history to date, which in turn reveals the inflection point and ending phase.”Such a life cycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviours of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem, it says.The predictions provide the following three alternative estimates of end dates in the order of conservativeness: the date when the last expected case has been identified; the date when 99% of the expected total cases have been identified; the date when 97% of the expected cases have been identified.As per the website, India will see the inflection point on April 20 (although as per latest statistics, the peak came on April 24); the 97% end date is predicted to be May 21; the 99% end date is May 31 and the 100% end date is July 25.The goal of the prediction model is to “reduce anxiety and prepare the mentality of all of us for the next phases of the epidemic evolution”. It has advised readers to take “predictions, regardless of the model and data used, with caution”.As per the model, the 100% end date for Covid-19 in the world is December 9; the earliest being China at April 9 (although cases are still springing up in Wuhan and elsewhere) and the last ones to finish up will be Bahrain (February 12, 2021) and Qatar (February 15, 2021).The predictions are updated daily based on actual data that countries report so the end dates keep changing.