FL Republicans brace for Trump ‘landslide’ loss – almost 1.6 million Floridians have voted – UF could get bee-research facility -- Hallandale Beach gets sleazier Presented by Facebook

By Marc Caputo ([email protected]; @MarcACaputo) with Kristen East ([email protected]; @kristenicoleast), Sergio Bustos ([email protected]; @sbustosFL) and the staff of POLITICO Florida

Good Tuesday morning. Donald Trump is in Miami, Sanford and Tallahassee today; Hillary Clinton campaigns today in Coconut Creek before heading tomorrow to Lake Worth and Tampa for in-person early vote rallies.


VOTERS ARE VOTING – On the first day of in-person early voting in Florida, more than 256,000 cast their ballots at a polling site while at least 1.3 million more had voted absentee by mail. In all, that’s nearly 1.6 million people who have already voted before Election Day in the nation’s biggest battleground state. Expect at least 3 million more to vote before Nov. 8 if the state has a roughly 71 percent turnout and if half the ballots, as in 2012, are cast in-person early and by mail.

Of the nearly 1.6 million Florida votes that had been cast as of this morning, Republicans accounted for about 654,000 (41.5 percent) and Democrats 638,000 (40.5 percent). That 1 percentage-point lead for the GOP compares to a 1.7 point advantage yesterday. As we’ve noted for weeks now, Democrats tend to out-vote Republicans when it comes to in-person early voting and Republicans usually out-vote Democrats by mail. The next big milestone: Monday – Halloween -- which will give us the first glimpse of an entire weekend of in-person early voting. If Democrats aren’t ahead by then in total pre-Election Day ballots, Republicans and Donald Trump will rejoice. Right now, though, Republicans are nervous as they watch the trend lines….

SLIPPING -- “Florida spirals away from Trump,” by POLITICO’s Marc Caputo: From polling to early voting trends to TV ad spending to ground game, Donald Trump’s Florida fortunes are beginning to look so bleak that some Republicans are steeling themselves for what could be the equivalent of a “landslide” loss in the nation’s biggest battleground state. Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in October -- according to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average, Clinton has a 3.4% lead. Even private surveys conducted by Republican-leaning groups show Trump’s in trouble in Florida, where a loss would end his White House hopes.

“On the presidential race we’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead in surveys that attempt to reflect Florida’s actual electorate,” Ryan D. Tyson, vice president of political operations for the Associated Industries of Florida business group wrote in a confidential memo emailed to his conservative-leaning members this weekend and obtained by POLITICO. http://politi.co/2eqlIfr

WINDFALL -- “Trump took $17 million in insurance for damage few remember,” by AP’s Jeff Horwitz and Terry Spencer: “Donald Trump said he received a $17 million insurance payment in 2005 for hurricane damage to Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, but The Associated Press found little evidence of such large-scale damage. Two years after a series of storms, the real estate tycoon said he didn't know how much had been spent on repairs but acknowledged he pocketed some of the money. Trump transferred funds into his personal accounts, saying that under the terms of his policy, ‘you didn't have to reinvest it.’ In a deposition in an unrelated civil lawsuit, Trump said he got the cash from a ‘very good insurance policy’ and cited ongoing work to the historic home.” http://apne.ws/2eFjPKt

CUBA CLARITY -- “Trump on employees scouting deals in Cuba: ‘They had some meetings,’” by Miami Herald’s Patricia Mazzei: “Pressed on his business dealings in Cuba, Donald Trump acknowledged in a Miami interview Sunday that several of his top executives traveled to the island for company purposes. … Trump is scheduled to meet Tuesday with Miami's Bay of Pigs invasion veterans, in a continued effort to try to shore up support among Cuban-American Republicans.” http://bit.ly/2eLAwCn

-- “Trump attacks Clinton, Obama in St. Augustine stop,” by Florida Times-Union’s Sebastian Kitchen: http://bit.ly/2eLRbXq

-- “Trump Backed Out Of Local Interview After Florida Reporter Refused To Provide Questions In Advance,” by Media Matters Staff: http://mm4a.org/2eAa7fV



– “Scott ready for election to end, but not abandoning sinking Trump,” by Palm Beach Post’s John Kennedy: http://pbpo.st/2eD7Rlm

– “Donald Trump decries ‘rigged system,’ but says Florida ‘in pretty good shape,’” by Palm Beach Post’s George Bennett: http://pbpo.st/2ep07Xp

– “Florida campaign manager Susie Wiles says the Donald Trump she knows is not the one critics rip,” by The Tampa Bay Times’ Adam C. Smith: http://bit.ly/2dQDcRt

-- “Donald Trump to hold rally in Sanford Tuesday,” by the Orlando Sentinel’s Steven Lemongello: http://bit.ly/2ehXoen

-- “Adam Putnam reaffirms his support for Trump over Clinton,” by The Tampa Bay Times’ Jeremy Wallace: http://bit.ly/2eLBXkj

– “Miami Beach mayor’s got a bus for fellow mayors to campaign for Clinton,” by Miami Herald’s Patricia Mazzei: http://bit.ly/2f1Z8vs

EARLY VOTE IN REVIEW …

-- “Early voting kicks off with eager voters, some glitches,” by Miami Herald’s Amy Sherman, Monique O. Madan and Daniel Chang: http://hrld.us/2e5e8Uq

-- “Smooth first day of early voting in South Florida,” by the Sun Sentinel’s Tony Alanez and Ryan Van Velzer: http://bit.ly/2dDWona

-- “Trump ‘drops in’ on early voters in West Palm Beach,” by Palm Beach Post’s Tony Doris: http://pbpo.st/2eBRHqG

-- “Early voting begins on the Treasure Coast,” by TC Palm’s Isadora Rangel: http://bit.ly/2eiCPhP

-- “More than 7,000 cast ballots in Collier County on record day of early voting,” by Naples Daily News’ Greg Stanley: http://bit.ly/2dErrzg

-- “Early voting begins, continues through Nov. 5,” by News-Press: http://newspr.es/2ep47EE

-- “Volusia, Flagler voters, volunteers flock to precincts on first day,” by Daytona Beach News Journal’s Matt Bruce: http://bit.ly/2eiEOmF

-- “Finally, early voting begins,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Jeff Burlew: http://on.tdo.com/2eiCs7h

-- “Thousands turn out for early voting,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Will Isern: http://on.pnj.com/2faIDfV

QUEEN’S GAMBIT -- “Kaine rallies voters in West Palm Beach, says Florida is ‘checkmate state’ for Hillary,” by the Sun Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher: “You really are a checkmate state,” he said. “That’s more than a battleground state. ... If we win for Hillary here, it's over. She's going to be president. The Democratic vice president candidate's visits Monday to West Palm Beach and Miami-Dade County were part of a blitz by the Clinton campaign to lock up support in the must-win battleground state.” http://bit.ly/2e5fAq8

RAISING KAINE -- “Echoing Obama, Kaine tears into Rubio in Miami,” by Miami Herald’s Cresonia Hsieh and Patricia Mazzei: “He called Donald Trump ‘dangerous,’ and he called Donald Trump a ‘con artist,’ but he’s supporting Donald Trump. I mean, ‘Con Artists for Trump,’” Kaine said. “I don’t get it.” http://hrld.us/2ei05N4

FEMININE SIDE -- “Patrick Murphy, Congress’s #1 Male Feminist, Is Running for Senate to Protect Women’s Rights,” by Glamour Magazine’s Maggie Mallon: http://bit.ly/2eDILTt

LIBRE INITIAITIVE FOR RUBIO – The conservative groups is hitting up mailboxes on behalf of Rubio in English http://politi.co/2eMMGMs and in Spanish http://politi.co/2eM5Y3u.

TOUGH CROWD -- @adrianflorido: “So @marcorubio just showed up at a largely Puerto Rican street fair in Orlando and got booed of the stage big time. http://bit.ly/2f3O5C4”

STILL STANDING -- “Pro-Murphy super PAC tries to fill TV money gap left by national Democrats in Senate race,” by POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon: Democrat Patrick Murphy has eaten into GOP Sen. Marco Rubio’s once sizeable lead in Florida’s nationally watched Senate race, but is still facing once big hurdle: money. Murphy’s campaign was dealt a blow when the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent less than $300,000 of an original $10 million planned media buy. The group has now gone dark, canceling any airtime reservations it had through Election Day. http://politico.pro/2eLrLbg

UNFAIR AND IMBALANCED – “Breitbart coordinated with liberal activist and organizer who disrupted GOP primary campaign events,” by POLITICO’s Hadas Gold: A liberal activist and organizer coordinated with reporters from the conservative news site Breitbart during the primaries to cover his disruptions of events for candidates such as Sen. Marco Rubio. Aaron Black, an associate with Democracy Partners and a former Occupy Wall Street organizer, worked with the pro-Trump site Breitbart, tipping them off about his stunts, exchanging raw video and coordinating coverage, according to a source with direct knowledge of the situation. http://politi.co/2eDBqmR

-- One Breitbart reporter calls the above story false: http://bit.ly/2eqrTjL

FL-7 NRCC POLL: “The survey shows that despite almost $ 3 million dollars of negative advertising by the national Democrat party, Congressman John Mica still holds a solid 47% to 42% lead over his Democrat opponent in the race for CD 7. After a series of negative statements regarding both candidates, Congressman Mica increased his lead over his opponent to 49% to 41%. Undecided voters in this race were below 10% of respondents. Congressman Mica enjoyed name recognition of over 86%. Conversely, Ms. Murphy is still unknown by 34% of the voters heading into the last two weeks of the campaign.” http://politi.co/2eDOE2P

FL-7 STEPHANIE MURPHY AD: http://bit.ly/2dEEBHz

SMOKESCREEN? -- “Broward elections office finds no new erroneous mail-in ballots; early voter reports problem with ballot,” by the Sun Sentinel’s Dan Sweeney and Tonya Alanez: “Broward elections workers checking mail-in ballots from Oakland Park found none without the statewide medical marijuana question that had been missing from at least two ballots. But an early voter at the Fort Lauderdale Regional Library/Art Serv said her ballot was missing Amendment 2. The Broward Supervisor of Elections Office said there was no evidence of an incorrect ballot. The pages were stuck together because of humidity in the machine, said spokeswoman Tonya Edwards.” http://bit.ly/2dEfIf0

HOT AIR -- “Opinion: How Gov. Scott quietly stole Florida’s future,” by Daily Climate’s Debbie Harrison Rumberger: “Less than a decade ago, Florida was poised to become a global leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This was a time of hope—a belief that we could still avoid the most severe impacts of a rapidly warming planet. The irony of what has happened since makes the ecosystem collapse underway right now throughout south Florida even more heartbreaking. As a member of the Florida Energy and Climate Action Team, I was privileged to work with leading scientists, legislators, energy and utility leaders and environmentalists in a unified effort to see our state become a climate leader.” http://bit.ly/2eAYUqO

-- “How The GOP Practices Psychological Warfare On Its Own Voters: Florida's James Madison Institute,” by Eye on Miami’s gimleteye: http://bit.ly/2ez6zZH

– “Republican runs ominous ‘sea level rise’ ads in Florida,” by Daily Caller’s Michael Bastasch: http://bit.ly/2epkdR5

– “Lyons: Solar ballot item no more than a slickly worded con,” by Herald Tribune’s Tom Lyons: http://bit.ly/2eMicdu

WATER WARS -- "Alabama supports Florida's request to cap Georgia's water use," by POLITICO Florida's Bruce Ritchie: Alabama says the U. S. Supreme Court must consider Georgia's efforts to withdraw more water from a federal reservoir north of Atlanta as it decides Florida's case seeking a cap on Georgia's water use. http://politi.co/2f248QK

POLITICAL PULSE -- “Pulse survivor from Orlando featured in new Human Rights Campaign ad,” by the Orlando Sentinel’s Steven Lemongello: “A survivor of the Pulse shootings in Orlando is the focus of a new ad from the Human Rights Campaign designed to get out the LGBT vote for this year’s election. The Human Rights Campaign, or HRC, the country’s largest LGBT organization, released its new digital ad, ‘Ricardo,’ in both 90-second and 30-second versions. It features Ricardo J. Negron Almodovar, of Orlando, talking about his experiences during and after the Pulse nightclub shooting and how it led to an increased political awakening for the LGBT and Hispanic communities.” http://bit.ly/2faa8GE

IF THEY COME, WILL WE BUILD IT? – “Alachua County schools ‘bursting at the seams,’” by Gainesville Sun’s Deborah Strange: “Alachua County Schools added enough new elementary students this fall to fill an entire new school, but as some schools in the system are bursting at the seams there is no clear way to pay for construction. Last week the School Board approved a five-year facilities plan that calls for a new elementary school in 2018/19. But, for new construction, the plan projects no state funding and just $133,000 in local money. A new elementary school is estimated to cost $22.5 million.” http://bit.ly/2dMZIL2

LOCKED OUT – “Minorities, poor hit hardest by stricter Bright Futures requirements,” by the Sun Sentinel’s Caitlin McGlade and Scott Travis: “Tens of thousands of Florida’s poorest students are finding it harder to afford college because of tougher qualifications for the state’s Bright Futures scholarship. The academic scholarship was created in 1997 to keep the state’s top students in Florida schools. But the legislature voted in 2011 to increase the required scores on ACT and SAT tests, fearing out-of-control costs caused by standards they considered too easy. Since then, the number of freshmen receiving the scholarship has dropped by about half, but the changes have hit hardest among those with the greatest need, according to a Sun-Sentinel analysis of Education Department data, including information from about 100 South Florida high schools.” http://bit.ly/2f6oach

SHIPS OF THE FUTURE -- “Secretary of Navy stresses importance of new ships coming to Mayport during tour of shipyard,” by The Florida Times Union's Joe Daraskevich: “Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus took time Monday to assure the men and women building littoral combat ships earmarked for Mayport Naval Station that they are working on the best warships in the world despite widespread criticism of the new vessels. Mabus stressed the importance of rebuilding the Navy’s entire fleet and said there are no plans to slow down production at the Fincantieri Marinette Marine shipyard on the Wisconsin/Michigan border.” http://bit.ly/2eFmAez

SHIPS OF THE PAST -- “Third shipwreck from Luna fleet discovered,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Thomas St. Myer: “University of West Florida President Judy Bense announced ... the UWF archaeology program discovered a shipwreck buried under sand in a mere 7 feet of water [and linked to four undiscovered shipwrecks from the fleet that brought Don Tristan de Luna to Pensacola in 1559]. Summer field school students and staff discovered Emanuel Point III June 20 when scuba divers' probes felt stones under the sandy bottom of the bay. http://on.pnj.com/2ep1vGO

MADURO WATCH – “Venezuela congress presses for Maduro trial in rowdy session,” by Reuters’ Alexandra Ulmer and Deisy Buitrago: “Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly in a rowdy session on Sunday vowed to put Nicolas Maduro on trial for violating democracy, days after authorities nixed a recall referendum against the unpopular leftist president. The measure is unlikely to get any traction given the government and a compliant Supreme Court have systematically undermined the legislature, but it marked a further escalation of political tensions in the crisis-hit OPEC nation.” http://reut.rs/2eWJLEH

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN …

– “Brevard Zoo takes in 366 struggling baby sea turtles,” by Florida Today’s Rick Neale: http://on.flatoday.com/2emVASJ

– “Men in ‘Halloween’ masks reported in 2 break-ins,” by Herald Tribune’s Carlos R. Munoz: http://bit.ly/2fadskQ



– “Deputies: Volusia man cuts roommate with sword in fight,” by Daytona Beach News Journal’s Katie Kustura: http://bit.ly/2eMjSUh

– “Presidential campaign signs lacking, stolen in Lee County,” by News-Press’ David Dorsey: http://newspr.es/2ezABhx

– “One dead in Hollywood scaffolding collapse, officials say,” by the Sun Sentinel’s Linda Trischitta and Rebeca Piccardo: http://bit.ly/2fa9Q2f

-- “Tennessee man died after riding on Disney’s Star Tours,” by AP http://bit.ly/2eLzmXA

– “Campaign costs: How expensive is a single vote?” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Sean Rossman: http://on.tdo.com/2eIdFZG

RACKETEERING? -- “Charges dropped against Haynes Brothers' Furniture family in printer toner racketeering case,” by Daytona Beach News Journal’s Frank Fernandez: “Prosecutors have dropped all charges against family members of Haynes Brothers' Furniture who had been accused of stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars from Xerox through the unauthorized sale of printer toner.” http://bit.ly/2e5ry30

THE BUZZ -- “Beekeeper groups push for UF bee research facility,” by Ocala.com’s Megan Kearney: “After years of fighting the Florida state legislature for funds, the University of Florida is on its way to building a new facility on campus — a state-of-the-art bee lab. The UF Build The Bee Lab will feature a research, extension and instruction facility and is designed to become a hub for both national and international researchers, beekeepers and students. The Florida State Beekeepers Association, a group of beekeeping representatives from around the state, decided that as a state with over 4,000 registered beekeepers, Florida needed a facility to aid bee research. http://bit.ly/2eMij95

SLEAZE-VILLE, USA -- “Plot thickens in Hallandale Beach political spying case,” by WPLG-10's Bob Norman: Hallandale Beach candidate Annabelle “Taub, along with commissioners Michelle Lazarow and Keith London, allege they discovered what appear to be illegally installed GPS tracking devices on their cars -- small black boxes that they've turned over to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, which is now conducting a criminal investigation. They also claim private investigators have been following them, with London catching one on cellphone video.

“At a news conference Monday, they said a clue as to who's paying for the alleged spying comes in a television attack ad that contains apparent surveillance video of Lazarow and London. The ad was placed by a political committee called Protecting Coastal Communities, which has been funded with about $100,000 provided by companies tied to the city's Diplomat Golf & Tennis Course -- the same company involved in a state corruption investigation into Taub's opponent, Bill Julian.” http://bit.ly/2dEtJyf

FOR MORE political and policy news, check out Politico Florida’s home page: http://politi.co/1jkJUyL. And please follow our staff @mdixon55, @sbustosFL, @christinesexton, @dducassi, @jessicabakeman and @bruceritchie on Twitter.

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