NEW DELHI: India’s economy may have expanded by not more than 6% in the first quarter of this financial year – slower than China’s 6.2% in the same period – an ET survey showed. Gross domestic product may have grown at 5.2-6% in April-June against 5.8% in the preceding quarter due to weak industrial growth and muted investment and government spending before the elections along with an unfavourable base effect, according to the survey of 11 independent economists. India’s GDP had expanded 8% in the first quarter of 2018-19.“We estimate a sequentially lower GDP primarily on account of further deceleration across the board. While a slowing consumption is getting reflected in highfrequency indicators, investments may have paused before the elections — in a wait and watch mode,” said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank.The moderation in GDP expansion is in line with industrial production growing at 3.6% in the first quarter compared with 5.1% a year earlier. High-frequency indicators such as automobile sales, rail freight, domestic air traffic and imports (nonoil, non-gold, non-silver and nonprecious and semi-precious stones) indicate a slowdown in consumption, especially private consumption, even with low inflation.India’s passenger vehicle industry suffered its worst performance in 19 years in July with a 31% drop in sales and the ninth consecutive month of declining sales, underscoring a sharp decline in demand.HDFC Bank expects growth at 5.2% in the first quarter and at 6.7% for the full year. India’s Economic Survey estimated GDP growth of 7 percent in FY20, higher than FY19’s five-year low of 6.8%. India slipped one notch to become the seventh-largest economy in 2018.“The reason for the continuing slowdown is a pronounced weakness in the manufacturing segment, with spillover effects in construction. In addition, government spending in the early months of Q1was quite low,” said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank.Although the RBI has cut the key lending rate four times in succession by a total of 110 basis points, economists are apprehensive of this translating into growth soon. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.As per the minutes of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, there is “clear evidence of domestic demand slowing down further... investment activity has been losing traction and the weakening of the global economy in the face of intensifying trade and geo-political tensions has severely impacted India’s exports, which may further impact investment activity.”The RBI has said that the importance of surplus liquidity has increased “in view of the shadow banking stress.”“The momentum which was weakening in the fourth quarter has spilled over to the first quarter and the unfavourable base is playing out here. The boost that we expected from government-related expenditure is not there… consumption demand is under pressure and the festive season will be lacklustre,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings and Research.The slowdown in private consumption has marred sentiment. It grew 7.2% in the March quarter, lower than 8.2% in the quarter ended December. The Central Statistics Office will release the official growth estimates for the June quarter on August 30.“While the concurrent state of the economy remains quite concerning, nascent signs of green shoots and positive performance of leading indicators provide some signs that a recovery may be slowly materialising,” Nomura said in a report.As per Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank, India’s annual growth could slow to 6.7% but activity in the second half of the year is likely to pick up after a weak-to-moderate first half.“The slowing economy is getting reflected in consumption demand. Investment, imports and production of capital goods are weak. Sentiment is also not encouraging. This quarter, at best, will be at par with the previous quarter but we expect a better second half,” said DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.Bhattacharya of Axis Bank expects stronger growth in the financial services segment.