NFL Draft Preview: The QB Haves and Haves Not – NFC East

The NFC East saw one team (Dallas Cowboys) make the playoffs, the Philadelphia Eagles finish one game out of the wild card at 10-6, and the Washington Redskins and New York Giants struggle for most of the season with 4-12 and 6-10 records respectively. Free agency saw a major shakeup in this division with the Cowboys losing the NFL’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, to the Philadelphia Eagles, who earlier in free agency traded away top 5 running back, LeSean McCoy. It’s not very often you see a team lose one of their best players to a division rival, especially in the contentious NFC East. This signing provides a major subplot for the upcoming NFL season. The Eagles also shook up their quarterback position, while Washington is mired in quarterback purgatory, and their options this season and in future seasons are not very appetizing. The Giants got the “good Eli” version at quarterback last year; are they likely to get the same guy next year, or the disaster that he was in 2013?

Some information on the stats being used, specifically DYAR, DVOA and EY. DYAR refers to Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and the defense. DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. And finally EY is Effective Yards, or when compared to their actual yards, if the QB’s EY is higher than their actual yards, then said QB played better than standard stats would normally indicate. The inverse is true if the players EY is lower than their actual yards.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 27th and 60th

Projected starting QB: Tony Romo, age 34 (5h in DYAR, 3rd DVOA, 3,441 yds, 4,085 EY, 34 TD’s, 9 Ints)

Tony Romo has gotten a bad rap for his inability to get the Cowboys consistently into the playoffs and some late game turnovers, but for the majority of his NFL career he has been a very good quarterback. His lone “bad” season was in 2010 when he was lost for the year after 5 games due to injury and was just out of the top 10 in DYAR and DVOA, but he bounced back in 2011 to come in 4th in both DYAR and DVOA. His latest season might have been his finest, top 5 in both of the aforementioned categories, two td’s below his career high, and tied for his career low in interceptions. He provided a late TD drive and pass in the Cowboys’ wild card playoff win against the Detroit Lions, and had a clutch 4th down pass to receiver Dez Bryant controversially overturned that would have likely propelled the Cowboys to a lead late against the Green Bay Packers in their divisional playoff loss. The only question about Romo at this point would be his age and durability, as he has battled numerous injuries throughout his career. It would be reasonable to think the Cowboys will get at least two more seasons of Romo at this current level of play. He is also likely to benefit from one of the best offensive lines and running games in the NFL, which takes a lot of the offensive load off of his shoulders and allows him to stay relatively clean when he does drop back to pass.

The biggest free agency loss for the Dallas Cowboys was at the running back position, when DeMarco Murray left for the Eagles. Murray led both the team and the NFL in rushing with 1,849 yards on 4,138 carries (ok, not really, it was 392), and it was often speculated that with his free agency looming the Cowboys were just getting all they could out of him before some other team gave him a ton of money, which the Eagles did. There are a couple of things at play for the Cowboys here. First, they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. According to Football Outsiders, they had the #1 run blocking offensive line in the league, with their running backs averaging 4.86 yards per carry. Consider that back-up running back Joseph Randle averaged 6.7 yards a carry on 51 carries, which basically amounts to two full games worth of work. This line can open holes, no matter who is running the ball. Second, they may figure into the pending Adrian Peterson situation; he is currently looking to leave the Vikings and is a native of the Dallas area. What does this mean for the Cowboys in the draft? It is possible that one of the two best running backs will be available to them at 27, either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, and they come with lots of pedigree and a much cheaper price tag. It would be hard to fault them if they went that route, even if it meant losing out on Peterson. However, it makes more sense to grab a running back later in the draft and give more help to a defense to was 22nd in DVOA last year. They lost cornerback Sterling Moore to free agency, and they were not that deep in the secondary even with him on the team. It has been reported that the Cowboys were meeting with Wake Forest corner Kevin Johnson pre-draft, so they appear to be looking to improve that position in the first round. Also keep an eye on FSU corner PJ Williams, who was projected to go in the first round, but was recently arrested on a DUI charge. There would be value in drafting him with the 60th pick if he fell that far.

New York Giants

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: #9 and #40

Projected starting QB: Eli Manning, age 34 (11th in DYAR, 16th in DVOA, 4,231 yards, 4,164 EY, 30 TD’s, 14 ints)

It was somewhat of a bounce back year for Eli last season after an atrocious 2013 season which saw him at 42nd in DYAR and 38th in DVOA. He was no doubt aided by the fact that he had super Jedi Odell Beckham Jr. to throw to in the second half of the season, but it was nevertheless a solid performance by the younger Manning. It should be comforting for Giants fans that 2013 is a significant outlier compared to the rest of Eli’s career; he has been consistently around the top 10 in both DYAR and DVOA during his time with the Giants. Coupled with OBJ being around for the foreseeable future, fans should expect solid play from Eli at least into next season. Unfortunately for the fans, Eli is now 34, he never had the biggest arm, and New York gets very cold late in the season, which has never boded well for an aging QB.

The Giants were not a good defensive football team in 2014, 21st by DVOA against the pass, 27th against the run, 24th total defense by DVOA. Given their inability to stop the run, they need front 7 help badly. At pick #9 they are likely to have a pretty good option at defensive tackle, and would jump on Danny Shelton out of Washington, if he is available. Malcolm Brown from Texas and Arik Armstead out of Oregon are two other possible candidates if Shelton has already been selected.. Here is the other spot of bother while looking at their defensive depth chart: The Giants don’t have any safeties, almost literally. Their current depth chart lists Nat Berhe and Cooper Taylor as their starters, with no back-ups. Unless you are their family members, there is a good chance you don’t know who those two guys are. So, you’d think the Giants would target a safety at #40 in the second round. The problem is, this is not a deep draft for safeties; the only first round talent is Landon Collins, who will not be there when the Giants draft in the second round. There is no obvious second best guy, it will come down to who the scouts feel best fits their team and what they are trying to do at the position. Some possible names include Shaq Thompson out of Washington, Cedric Thompson out of Minnesota, and Derron Smith out of Fresno State.

Philadelphia Eagles

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 20th and 52nd

Projected starting QB: Sam Bradford, Age 27 (2013 stats: 19th in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, 1,602 yards, 1,910 EY, 14 TD’s, 4 Ints)

Since 2013 was only a partial season for Bradford, we’re going to go a little deeper into his stats to get a better idea of what he has done his short time in the pros. In 2012, when he started all 16 games, Bradford’s DYAR and DVOA were both 16th in the league, ahead of Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco (who won the Super Bowl that season), Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and Andrew Luck. His effective yards were about 100 yards more than his actual yards, which would indicate he was slightly better than his stats show, and he threw 21 TD’s and 12 ints. He was on pace to be in about that range during the 2013 season before he suffered an ACL injury that ended his season in the 6th game. He also missed all of 2014 with another ACL injury, the second of his career, before he was traded from the Rams to the Eagles, in exchange for Nick Foles. Bradford was the #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, selected by the St. Louis Rams, and mostly viewed as an enormous bust. He is at the very least a bust for the Rams since he has been subsequently traded, but his on field performance has shown some extended flashes of quality play, and he had seemed to be experiencing a boost in his numbers from 2012 to 2013 before his knee injury. Unfortunately, that is a projection, and to be frank, someone drafted with the #1 overall pick is expected to be better than the 16th best QB in the NFL. But, perhaps aligning with Eagles coach Chip Kelly, who is known as one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and changing his scenery while getting away from the “bust” stigma he had in St. Louis, will reignite Bradford’s career. He may only have one or two seasons at most, to prove himself, but there may not be a better situation in the NFL to give it one last shot than the offense he is going to operate in Philadelphia.

The Eagles and Chip Kelly will never be accused of being ok with keeping the status quo, as evidenced by their ambitious off-season. LeSean McCoy, top 5 in the NFL in rushing, gone in a trade for linebacker Kiko Alonso from the Buffalo Bills. Nick Foles, quarterback the last two seasons, 5th in DYAR, 2nd in DVOA in 2013, gone in a trade for Bradford. They paid a king’s ransom to free agent corner Byron Maxwell and gave a huge contract to Dallas running back DeMarco Murray to replace McCoy. They also gave a good chunk of money to running back Ryan Mathews from the San Diego Chargers; he will serve as Murray’s back up in 2014. The money spent and whether those deals were wise is fodder for another column, those players are on the team and will play major roles in the 2015 season. Where does this leave them as far as draft needs? The defense was 10th by DVOA last season, but only 18th against the pass. Byron Maxwell and fellow free agent signee Walter Thurmond will help; they will team with nickel corner Brandon Boykin and look to be vastly improved in 2015. However, they do have an opening at the safety position and the 20th pick seems to be the prime drafting position for the best safety in the draft, Landon Collins out of Alabama. He would move into the strong safety spot and Malcolm Jenkins would slide over from strong safety to free safety. With the 52nd pick I’d like to see the Eagles go front 7 on defense or offensive line. The Eagles were done in last year by a myriad of injuries along the line and for as much as they want to run the ball, it would help to have some depth at that position. Also, not to be ignored is their quarterback who has suffered two ACL injuries in the past 2 seasons; he doesn’t need to be scrambling for his life game by game. There is also a need at receiver, Riley Cooper is their #2 and they lost leading receiver Jeremy Maclin to free agency. It is likely Kelly can find good value in a receiver that he thinks fits his offense in the later rounds; it’s always wise to pad your front 7 as much as you can, especially when you have a coach like Kelly who feels he can scheme a good offense with slightly lesser players. If someone like Paul Dawson, a linebacker out of TCU who ran slow in the 40 (4.9) and whose own coach called a “knucklehead,” falls into the 2nd round, the Eagles would be wise to give him a good look.



Washington Redskins



2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 5th and 38th

Projected starting QB: Robert Griffin III, age 25 (42nd in DYAR, 41st in DVOA, 1,452 yds, 803 EY, 4 TDs, 6 Ints)

In Robert Griffin’s rookie year, in the 15 games he played, he was 11th in DYAR and 7th in DVOA. He frankly was one of the stars of the league, and Washington fans were doing cartwheels at how bright their future was with him playing quarterback for their franchise for the next decade. Then, he tore his ACL in a playoff game in the 2012 season. His knee was injured going into the game, and he further injured it by playing, thus beginning the downward spiral of his career. He hurried back to the team to be ready for the start of the 2013 season, never seemed fully healthy, and his quality dipped to 32nd in DYAR, 31st in DVOA. There were rumors of a rift with coach Mike Shanahan, problems with his teammates and a question of his commitment to anyone other than himself. Shanahan was subsequently fired and coach Jay Gruden was brought in from the Cincinnati Bengals. Turbulence continued with Griffin being chastised by Gruden for comments made to the media about his teammates. During Week 2, Griffin dislocated his ankle on a scramble, many thought that might be the end of his Washington career. He returned in Week 9 against the Vikings, but the season did not go well for him or his team. The 2015 season is surely his last chance with the Redskins, if he can’t show his quality early on the team is likely to move on without him with no clear answers waiting in the wings. Kirk Cousins was his main back-up last season and in 2013 when Griffin was injured. Last season he was 23rd in DYAR and 15th in DVOA, so not atrocious, however, his yards came in at 1,625 and his EY registered at 1,431. He also threw 9 interceptions on 212 drop backs, a poor percentage. In 2013 he was simply poor; 41st in DYAR, 45th in DVOA, 820 yards with an EY of 376, 7 interceptions on 160 drop backs.

There is a real possibility that Marcus Mariota will be available at the #5 pick when Washington is on the clock, but given how much they have invested in Griffin and the weaknesses of the rest of their team, going with another spread QB would be unwise. They lost Brian Orakpo to free agency and are in desperate need of an outside pass rusher, of which there are many good options in this draft and that will be available to them at #5. Vic Beasley (Clemson), Shane Ray (Missouri), Randy Gregory (Nebraska) should all be there for them to choose from. Beasley and Gregory both come from 3-4 schemes as outside linebackers, which would fit in nicely with the 3-4 that the Redskins currently run. And as is my theme in regards to what teams should do when they are a poor team all-around, you load up on the front 7 and the offensive line, the latter of which the Redskins should target in the 2nd round. They were 18th in the NFL last year running up the middle according to Football Outsiders; help at guard or center would make sense for them. If Cameron Erving out of Florida State could fall to them in the 2nd round at #38 that would be a steal.