Endangered Republicans: Poll and fundraising numbers show New Jersey Democrats surging

New disclosures show Democratic challengers raised more money than Republican incumbents in two of central New Jersey's battleground congressional districts earlier this year.

Democrats also raised the most money in two other districts where Republicans have retired, and in one of them, the $1.1 million raised by newcomer Mikie Sherrill of Montclair was the most of any House candidate statewide.

The glum fundraising news for the GOP comes as a new poll of voters statewide released Monday found Democrats could potentially sweep the New Jersey delegation in Congress next year.

That's still a long shot, however, since some Republican candidates have the personal wealth to offset any fundraising disadvantage, and super PACs, which do not have contribution limits, could also get involved. President Donald Trump's approval rating has also been inching upward around the country, though it remains weak in New Jersey.

The new Monmouth University poll said that when New Jersey adults were asked earlier this month which party they want to control Congress, 54 percent said Democrats and 35 percent said Republicans.

That 19-percentage-point margin compares with an eight-point edge Democratic House candidates had over Republicans in the 2016 election, when they knocked off one GOP incumbent. Democrats had only a two-point margin in the 2014 midterms, Monmouth University said.

Poll director Patrick Murray called the results "pretty astounding."

"Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP," Murray said. "If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November."

Trump is unpopular statewide, with 61 percent saying they disapprove of the job he's doing while 34 percent approve, the Monmouth poll found.

Complicating the GOP's efforts in New Jersey this year is that a majority of residents, 56 percent, say the state will fare worse under one of the signature achievements Republican candidates are touting nationwide, the sweeping overhaul of the tax code that Trump signed in December.

The segment of the population who expect to fare worse under the tax law is is even higher — 64 percent — in House districts held by Republicans.

The poll of 632 adults was taken April 6 to 10. Results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Washington-based Democratic and Republican committees are targeting six New Jersey districts this year. One is held by a Democrat, and the others are the five seats Republicans hold in the 12-seat delegation.

Here's a look at how those districts stacked up in fundraising for the first three months of this year, based on disclosures candidates had to file to the Federal Election Commission by Sunday.

District 2: LoBiondo retiring

Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew, a Democrat, led the field in fundraising with $408,000 raised during the quarter and $456,000 in his account on March 31. Van Drew faces a primary challenger from William Cunningham, who raised $52,000 during the quarter, and Tanzie Youngblood, who raised $35,000.

Republican Hirsh Singh raised $109,000, including $45,000 he lent his campaign. He had $83,000 in his account on March 31.

Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo announced last year that he would retire after serving 12 terms representing the district, which covers all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Ocean.

District 3: MacArthur

Rep. Tom MacArthur, R-Toms River, was the only New Jerseyan in Congress to vote for the tax plan, and he has the highest rate of supporting measures backed by Trump. Last year, Trump headlined a fundraiser for MacArthur at his country club in Bedminster.

In the first quarter, MacArthur raised $301,000 and had nearly $1.1 million in his account. Andy Kim, a former counterterrorism official in President Barack Obama's administration, raised $530,000 and had $815,000 on hand at the end of the quarter.

MacArthur has shown he will use his personal wealth, estimated at more than $64 million by the Center for Responsive Politics, to help his campaign. When he first ran and won the seat four years ago, he spent $5 million of his own money.

The district covers parts of Burlington and Ocean counties.

District 4: Smith

The longest-serving member of the delegation, 19-term Republican Rep. Chris Smith of Robbinsville has been targeted by Democrats before and always managed to survive.

He raised $256,000 during the quarter and had $601,000 on March 31. Two Democrats are vying to challenge him. Josh Welle of Rumson raised $107,000 and had $149,000 at the end of the quarter, while Jim Keady of Spring Lake raised $84,000 and had $38,000.

District 5: Gottheimer

Freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-Wyckoff, must defend his seat in a district Trump narrowly won in 2016. An aggressive fundraiser who spent more than $4 million last time, he raised $750,000 during the first quarter and had $3.2 million in his account on March 31.

Former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan, a Republican, raised $127,000 during the quarter and also repaid himself $342,000 of the $1 million he lent to his campaign last year. He had $708,000 left on March 31.

Lonegan faces John McCann, the counsel to the Bergen County sheriff, who raised $33,000 and, after lending his campaign $125,000, had $114,000 left on March 31.

District 7: Lance

Like MacArthur, Republican Rep. Leonard Lance of Clinton Township was bested by one of his would-be Democratic opponents in fundraising. Lance raised $316,000 during the quarter and had $850,000 in his account on March 31.

Democrat Tom Malinowski raised $479,000 and had $740,000 in his account at the end of the quarter.

Lance faces two Republican challengers, but the only one to file an FEC report was Lindsay C. Brown, who said she raised $816 and had $1,967 at the end of the quarter.

Battling Malinowski for the nomination are Goutam Jois, who raised $87,820 and had $302,000 in cash on March 31; and 2016 nominee Peter Jacob, who raised $18,000 and had $27,000. Jois has put $100,000 of his own money into the campaign.

District 11: Frelinghuysen retiring

Filmmaker Michael Moore once tried to register a ficus tree to run against Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen to protest how little choice voters had in districts where members of one party dominate year after year.

But with Frelinghuysen announcing his retirement earlier this year and suburban voters who traditionally have voted Republican turning on the party around the country, there are five Democrats and five Republicans on the primary ballot.

Democrat Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, has already raised $2.4 million, including $1.1 million from January through March. She also had the biggest bankroll at the end of the quarter, with $1.7 million.

On the Republican side, Assemblyman Jay Webber reported raising $235,000 and had $221,000 in cash at the end of the quarter, and Antony Ghee raised $65,000 and had $62,000. But last-minute candidate Peter DeNeufville has reportedly told party leaders he will spend his own funds to keep the seat in GOP hands. He did not have to file an FEC report because he became a candidate after the March 31 deadline for the most recent disclosures.

Democrats battling Sherrill for the nomination include Tamara Harris, who had $204,000 in her account after raising $14,000 during the quarter; and Mitchell Cobert, who had $12,000 after raising $30,000.