YPSILANTI, MI - A budget deficit at Eastern Michigan University could impact "upwards of 60 positions" university President James Smith indicated in an email sent to the campus community Tuesday, Jan. 23.

In the email, Smith said early figures show EMU's budget deficit for the 2018 fiscal year is projected at between $4.5 to $5.5 million.

Smith said the budget was built on the assumption that EMU would generate 478,000 student credit hours for the 2017-18 academic year. Based on fall semester enrollment the projection was reduced to 473,000 student credit hours and eventually projected down further to 470,000, based on winter enrollment figures.

The credit hour projection, Smith said, represents an 11.6 percent decline from just four years ago. In June, EMU projected it would see less in revenue from tuition and fees, from $221.3 million in 2017 to $214.8 million in 2018 - representing a 2.5 percent drop in credit hours for the 2018 fiscal year.

While the total impact on faculty and staff is not yet known, Smith said personnel could be impacted through the elimination of positions that are currently open and unfilled, as well as positions that are currently staffed.

Total numbers won't be available until EMU's Human Resources team completes its evaluation of positions with the individual bargaining units involved.

EMU Spokesman Geoff Larcom said potential personnel cuts "would involve staff and administration."

Additional efforts to reduce expenses across the board, Smith said, haven't been enough to account for the budget shortfall.

"Under normal circumstances, a 1.6 percent deviation from budget would not be cause for emergency, but these are not normal circumstances," Smith wrote. "The FY18 budget was also built on the assumption that we would implement significant reductions in expenses. Through that process, we identified some initial cuts, held open positions, and took other steps. Although we implemented several important initiatives, it has simply not been enough."

Smith noted that state appropriations for higher education have declined compared to 10 years ago, while EMU's state appropriations are lower than they were in 2003. The decline in student credit hours also reflects the evolving demographics of fewer high school students, fewer community college students available to transfer and more individuals choosing work over school, Smith said.

Total enrollment at Eastern Michigan University continued its downward trend this fall, coming in at 20,313 students - down 3.8 percent from last year.

Total enrollment peaked at 23,503 in fall 2010, according to a report on the university's website.

While EMU's numbers are on the decline, the university is not alone in grappling with declining enrollments.

Enrollment figures show that the total student body at 10 of the state's 15 universities fell in size. Contributing to the trend of declining enrollment: A decline in the size of high school graduating classes.

According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the size of Michigan's high school graduation classes peaked at 123,576 during the 2007-08 school year. That number is projected to fall below 99,000 for the 2019-20 school year and continue to drop after that.

"I understand that this news is distressing," Smith wrote. "It is, unfortunately, only the first of many steps that we must take in the coming months and years to address the long-term challenges facing regional public universities, particularly in Michigan. This is not an Eastern Michigan University problem - or reflective that we have done something wrong. Several other Michigan universities also face declining credit hours and greatly reduced budgets.

Smith said he had shared the information regarding the budget with EMU's impacted bargaining units and administrative leaders, including an overview of the steps the university is implementing in order to address the challenges in the short term.

"These actions are not easy or pleasant, and are not without consequence to virtually every area of our great institution," Smith wrote. "They are necessary, however, as we align University resources with declines in revenue."

EMU has made efforts in the past few years to look for additional areas of revenue, including privatizing its dining services in 2016, when it approved a 10-year contract with Chartwells Higher Education.

The agreement included a $5 million signing bonus to EMU, $18 million in initial capital funding and $2.5 million for current graduate assistant scholarships.

In December, EMU's Board of Regents approved a 35-year agreement to monetize its parking system on campus, resulting in an up-front capital payment of $55 million from the contractors to the university in an effort to bolster the university's finances.

Amid the budget shortfall, EMU's Board of Regents approved three capital projects for the coming year totaling $76 million, including a $40 million renovation and expansion of Sill Hall and the construction of a new student-athlete training facility.

Following approval of the projects in December, Smith referred to revenue the university would receive in the parking agreement, borrowing against the $55 million it will receive up-front to provide funding for the three projects.