The number of patients being treated in hospital hallways will continue rising until the government opens more nursing home spots, says an independent watchdog’s report that paints a worrisome picture of bed shortages as baby boomers age.

In addition to 15,000 new nursing home beds already in the pipeline, Ontario will need at least 55,000 more by 2034 to keep waiting lists at current levels — which critics say are already too long, according to a study by the legislature’s non-partisan Financial Accountability Office.

“We know it’s a huge, daunting challenge,” Long-Term Care Minister Merrilee Fullerton, a medical doctor, acknowledged Wednesday.

“We know what we’re up against.”

The 31-page report faults the previous Liberal government for not opening enough new nursing home beds, making the 15,000 new beds “the first meaningful increase to the supply…in over 15 years,” and warns Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives about the relentless demographics of a rapidly aging population.

“Between 2011 and 2018, the number of long-term care beds in Ontario increased by only 0.8 per cent while the population of Ontarians aged 75 and over grew by 20 per cent,” financial accountability officer Peter Weltman wrote, noting a backlog of patients in hospital awaiting nursing home beds is making overcrowding an increasing problem.

“In the absence of other health sector changes, the problem of hallway health care will get worse over the next two years.”

Ending hallway health care was a key promise from the premier in the last provincial election campaign, with Ford himself saying last summer that it would be eliminated in a year — a pledge Health Minister Christine Elliott later discounted, saying the effort will take longer.

“There is no one simple approach to ending hallway health care. No one has ever suggested it’s going to be a walk in the park,” Elliott said in the legislature’s daily question period Wednesday.

In addition to the 15,000 nursing home beds pledged by the government for 2023, there are 15,000 more planned for the next five years, the minister added.

But NDP Leader Andrea Horwath charged that is not nearly enough to deal with a looming crisis in long-term care beds given the report’s warnings.

“Even if the government keeps its promise, and that is a big if, wait lists for long-term care will continue to grow in our province and hallway medicine will get worse.”

Green Leader Mike Schreiner echoed the concern.

“It’s clear the government’s plan is woefully inadequate to meet the needs of our aging population. The bottom line is they’re going to have to dedicate more resources to invest in more long-term care beds.”

About half the 15,000 new nursing home beds have been allocated and the rest could open by 2024 if the government allocates them by next March, the financial accountability office said.

The report found almost 35,000 Ontarians were on waiting lists for long-term care beds last year, up 78 per cent from 2011, a period in which the median wait increased to 152 days from 99. The province now has 626 long-term care homes with more than 78,000 residents.

That wait list will grow by another 2,000 names over the next five years and peak at 40,200 in 2021, increasing the wait time to 179 days. That wait should decline to 140 days by 2024.

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But to keep the wait list at current levels, the additional 55,000 beds will be needed by 2034 as the growth rate of citizens over 85 increases, the report added.

“The reality is that we have an aging population and that’s why we’re looking at innovative programs that we can help people stay in the community in their own homes longer,” said Fullerton.

Solutions include expedited approvals for nursing home development, providing more medical care and assistance to seniors living in their own homes, virtual care and remote monitoring of medical conditions, she told reporters.

“Let’s build the bricks and mortar for our most complex patients and residents. Let’s make sure that they can get the care they need when they need it and let’s look at all the innovative ways we can.”

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