Andhra Pradesh is moving from being a Congress bastion to a multi-polar state and will get a fractured mandate like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, reveals an India Today Group/CVoter snap poll on the battleground state after Parliament passed the Telangana Bill which paves the way for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh.

Meanwhile, Telangana is on its way to become 29th state of the Union with Rajya Sabha approving a historic bill to carve it out of Andhra Pradesh amid vociferous protests by members from Seemandhra region as also from Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena. It will now go for presidential assent.



According to the India Today survey, national parties are beginning to play second fiddle to regional parties like in Tamil Nadu, UP and Bihar.

The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), led by K. Chandrashekar Rao, is likely to sweep Telangana even without an alliance with the Congress, bagging 14 of the 17 seats in the region.

The YSR Congress Party, led by YS Jaganmohan Reddy, is likely to emerge as the strongest force in Seemandhra bagging 18 of 25 seats in its debut election.

Jagan's father Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy remains the favourite chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh with a higher popularity in Telangana than in Seemandhra. If he were alive today, then Telangana would have never been created seems to be the view at the grassroots.

Despite the BJP not being in the reckoning on most seats across Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is by far the most popular choice for the prime minister's post.

A BJP-TDP alliance can pose a formidable threat to the TRS in the Telangana region.

With the party facing a rout in both regions of Andhra Pradesh, the only hope for the Congress is a merger or alliance with the TRS.

By itself, the Telugu Desam Party, led by N. Chandrababu Naidu, is not making much inroad in the two regions.

The party is projected to bag only 6 out of 42 seats in Andhra Pradesh, which mirrors its tally in the outgoing Lok Sabha.

Asaduddin Owaisi of the MIM retains his dominance in the Hyderabad seat.

Methodology of the poll:

CVoter conducted interviews of 1,500 randomly selected respondents in Telangana, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh on February 18 and 19 to understand their opinion on issues of Telangana formation.

Tracking data of 4,297 respondents across Andhra Pradesh during last eight weeks was also analysed to see the change in perception on the issue taking the total sample size to 5,797 respondents across all the regions. The data was weighted to known population profile to make it representative of state population.

There can be margin of error is +/- 3 per cent at state level and +/- 5 per cent at the regional level estimates. The grand total might sometimes yield a tally of 99 per cent or 101 per cent due to rounding off automation of figures by the computer.

These are the questions and the answer pattern:

1. Which party represents the united Andhra movement?





Jagan Reddy is seen as the real representative of the movement with 44 per cent of respondents in Seemandhra crediting YSR Congress for pushing for a united Andhra Pradesh.

Naidu's shifting positions have created confusion in the minds of voters about the TDP's real position.

High percentage of respondents (26 per cent) in Telangana feel the Congress actually believes in united Andhra Pradesh.

2. Which party is credited/blamed for the creation of Telangana?





Majority of respondents in Seemandhra (67 per cent) blame the Congress for creating a separate state of Telangana. Here, it is not the Congress but the TRS (58 per cent) that is credited the creation of a separate state of Telangana.

The worrying news for the Congress is that it is being blamed by voters in Seemandhra for splitting Andhra while not being given credit by voters in Telangana.

3. What should be the status of Hyderabad?



An overwhelming majority of respondents (71 per cent) in Seemandhra want Union Territory and joint capital status for Hyderabad. Only one third of the respondents (30 per cent) in Telangana are willing to accept Hyderabad as the joint capital with UT status. Only 19 per cent of respondents in Seemandhra are willing to accept that Hyderabad goes to Telangana.

An unusually high percentage of respondents (21.3 per cent) is uncertain about what is the best solution to this vexed issue.

4. Will the YSR Congress merge with the Congress?





People in both Seemandhra and Telangana are not fully sure of Jagan Reddy's real designs.

A high percentage of people in both Seemandhra (32 per cent) and Telangana (54 per cent) believe Jagan can still merge with the Congress.

Jagan's credibility on the merger question is relatively higher in Seemandhra (45 per cent) than in Telangana (20 per cent).

5. Will the TRS merge with the Congress?





High percentage of respondents in both Telangana (46 per cent) and Seemandhra (57 per cent) feel the TRS will merge with the Congress.

Almost half (46 per cent) of Telangana respondents are wary of Rao's real intentions. His party's credibility is suspect in both regions.

6. Best leader for your region



Kiran Kumar Reddy and the Congress party suffer a crisis of confidence in both the regions. Jagan Reddy is the undisputed hero of the people of Seemandhra - 51 per cent think he's the best man to develop Seemandhra.

Rao has by far the highest approval ratings in Telangana - 49 per cent think he's best suited to develop Telangana.

Despite his innings as a chief minister, Naidu sees very low (9 per cent) approval ratings in Telangana as a development mascot. In Seemandhra too, only 28 per cent think he's best suited to develop the region.

Rao's popularity ratings in Telangana (49 per cent) are more than that of all three other major leaders combined (24 per cent).

Jagan is more popular in Seemandhra (51 per cent) than all other three major leaders taken together (38 per cent).

7. Who has been best chief minister of Andhra Pradesh in the recent past?



YS Rajasekhara Reddy is considered by far the best chief minister of Andhra Pradesh in the recent past. He has unparalleled popularity in both regions of Andhra Pradesh.

Despite hailing from Kadapa in Seemandhra, the late leader continues to be popular in the Telangana region.

Naidu follows a distant second while Kiran Kumar Reddy has failed to make a mark in either of the regions.

8. Who is the best prime ministerial candidate?



Narendra Modi's popularity is equal in Seemandhra (50 per cent) and Telangana (50 per cent). The BJP leader's popularity equals that of all the other leaders taken together.

Kejriwal has not been able to make any headway in either Seemandhra or Telangana but interestingly is a more popular choice for PM than Naidu.

