Low-income workers in dozens of locales are getting a New Year’s treat: a pay raise.

Nineteen states and 21 cities just raised their minimum wage, some to as high as $15 an hour. Later this year, three more states and 18 cities will follow suit, according to a report by the National Employment Law Project in New York. Several Republican-led states, including Missouri, Arkansas and Arizona, are on the bandwagon.

But Texas’ lowest-paid workers won’t be getting any such boost. Not unless the Legislature, which convenes on Tuesday, reverses years of opposition to such measures. Or if Washington increases the federal minimum wage for the first time in over a decade.

Both seem to be a long shot, although the issue will get plenty of attention in Austin and Washington — and the media.

The question is how much it still matters. Fewer workers are getting the minimum, in part because a booming economy and tight labor market have driven up pay. That’s the case even in states that haven’t increased their minimum wage.

In 2012, Texas had 452,000 workers making the minimum wage or less, according to federal data. By 2017, that number had fallen to 196,000, despite a slight increase in hourly workers.

Texas still has the most minimum wage workers in the U.S., many more than runner-up Florida, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"The minimum wage is still relevant; it just needs to be raised to a level where more workers benefit," said Tsedeye Gebreselassie, work quality director at the National Employment Law Project.

The "Fight for $15," which began in 2012 with fast-food workers walking off the job in New York, has moved the goalposts nationwide. Thirteen states and counties will reach or pass that wage floor, the law project said, and at least half a dozen other states are campaigning for it.

Adding a dollar or two to the minimum scoops up a lot of people and spills over to other workers. “But at $15 an hour, you’re starting to affect a significant portion of the workforce,” Gebreselassie said.

More workers in Texas would stand to gain than in any other state, according to a 2017 study by the Economic Policy Institute in Washington.

If a $15 minimum were adopted by 2024, nearly 4.7 million Texans would benefit directly and indirectly, the report said. That’s over one-third of the workforce. And the cumulative increase would total about $4,400 for each affected worker.

Retail and food jobs

The impact would vary by industry. In retail trade and food service, over 1.5 million Texans would get a lift — more than in any other sectors. Next up would be workers in health care and construction.

The concern is that such a big increase in pay would prompt employers to cut jobs or increase investment in automation.

The Texas Association of Business, a leading statewide advocate, opposes an increase in the minimum wage in its 2019 legislative priorities. That could "deprive many entry-level workers of job opportunities," the group said.

In late 2015, TAB’s leader said much the same: “At $15 an hour, you'll hurt the people you’re trying to help,” said Bill Hammond, CEO at the time. “We believe the marketplace should decide this.”

That argument, a constant among fiscal conservatives, has gained traction since some major employers increased their starting pay — and crowed about it. A year ago, Walmart raised its entry wage to $11 an hour, and in October, Amazon said it was increasing its minimum to $15 for U.S. workers.

But don't be fooled, said Rick Levy, president of the Texas AFL-CIO.

“This wasn’t out of generosity,” Levy said. “It’s because of the pressure” from both public campaigns to raise pay and from rivals wanting to add hires.

In many polls, the public supports a higher minimum wage, even at a $15 threshold. That explains why red states like Arkansas and Missouri approved a higher minimum wage in November. In each state, the measure was backed by over 60 percent of voters.

But residents led those ballot initiatives. In Texas, legislators would have to put the issue on the ballot, and Republicans have rejected such proposals.

The Lege also prohibited cities from enacting their own minimum-wage rates for private employers, as occurs in other parts of the country. But Dallas has pushed back on behalf of its workers.

'Living wage'

In 2015, Dallas implemented a wage floor policy for employees and contractors. Workers must be paid a so-called living wage, which is adjusted regularly. In October, the rate was increased to $11.15 per hour.

"If we don't invest in our population, our society can't be successful," said Dallas council member Mark Clayton. "People argue that the market will adjust, but it doesn't — at least not enough. And doing nothing isn't acceptable anymore."

If Texas were to step forward and increase the minimum wage, “that would be an important statement,” said union leader Levy.

But to whom? While workers might appreciate the pay bump, would companies be turned off?

In a recent article, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that Texas led all states in business relocations — and Dallas gained the most jobs from out-of-state migration.

Many factors make Texas a favored destination, the report said, and it reeled off the best known, including the state's business climate, central location and supply of educated workers.

No. 10 on that list: the $7.25 minimum wage.