When House Majority Leader Eric Kantor lost his bid for reelection in 2014, it was a seismic political event. Once you make it into a House leadership position, your seat is considered pretty safe—unless you have a primary challenger and the Tea Party is conducting an inquisition based on ideological purity within the Republican Party. Current Speaker Paul Ryan had a primary contender of his own last cycle—more on that later—but it already appears that he'll have a genuine challenger from the Democratic Party in 2018.

An army veteran and union iron worker from southeast Wisconsin named Randy Bryce has announced he'll challenge Ryan as a Democrat. Based on the ad he released to go with the announcement, this is no vanity play:

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Holy shit. This ad from @IronStache announcing his run against Paul Ryan is something. Take a couple minutes. Watch. #WI01 pic.twitter.com/oveJZVle2c — Tim Hogan (@timjhogan) June 20, 2017

Ryan is sitting on a 25 percent approval rating—with 59 percent disapproving of the job he's doing—based largely on the barbaric healthcare reform bill he rammed through the lower chamber last month. That plan, which the CBO estimates would leave 23 million people uninsured and see Medicaid funding cut drastically to finance tax cuts for the rich, is making its way (in total secrecy) through the Senate right now. But it seems to be dragging Ryan deep underwater. He has demonstrated a nauseating lack of empathy as he's misrepresented the intent and likely effects of the bill with a toothy grin plastered across his face. That's not to mention the complete lack of spine he's shown when it comes to pushing back on the president's behavior before and after November 8.

Bryce's strategy, it seems, is to position himself as a working everyman who actually listens to people's stories. These are not priorities Ryan very often pretends to have. But it's an uphill climb for the ironworker. Ryan's district—Wisconsin's 1st—hasn't gone for a Democrat since 1995, and Ryan won by 35 points in 2016. The district went for Donald Trump by 11 points, even after Ryan backed away from—but didn't rescind—his endorsement. Plus, votes won't be cast for a year and a half. Who knows—with the way things are going up the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Ryan could be president by then.

One thing we know for sure, though, is that Bryce already looks to be a stronger candidate than Ryan's last opponent to garner national attention. Based on this ad alone, he's miles ahead of Paul Nehlen, the self-funded, dubiously populist Trump Mini-Me (also: the least convincing motorcycle enthusiast since Paul Rudd in Wet Hot American Summer) who produced this assault on cinema last cycle:

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If that guy got traction, you know people must be sick of Ryan. But in the end, Nehlen eked out just under 16 percent of the primary vote. He's pledged to challenge Ryan again this time, despite coming up short by the remarkable margin of 68 points at the last time of asking.

Jack Holmes Politics Editor Jack Holmes is the Politics Editor at Esquire, where he writes daily and edits the Politics Blog with Charles P Pierce.

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