By Jason Davis - WASHINGTON, DC (Jan 31, 2014) US Soccer Players - Little did we know that when MLS commissioner Don Garber declared the American and Canadian soccer league would reach 24 teams by 2020, he was being conservative. Little did we know that not only might all 24 spots be locked up well before 2020, the expansion teams added post-declaration might be playing well before 2020. The pace of the MLS expansion race escalated, and it escalated quickly.

Since Garber’s promise to add four more teams by the start of the next decade (MLS handed Manchester City’s owners the NYCFC franchise before the “24” statements), Orlando City grabbed one spot. Phil Rawlins grand experiment was a massive success, with OCSC convincing MLS of their big league credentials after only three years in the market. That makes for 21 places accounted for, with a further three left on the table.

If recent rumors are any indication, there might be just one spot in play, with a host of serious contenders lining up for #24.

Here's what we think we already know about the next MLS expansion cities.

David Beckham’s Miami project is picking up speed, with the former Galaxy star and symbol of Major League Soccer’s new growth era discussing possible stadium sites with local authorities. Nothing is done, but the league returning to Miami just a little more than fifteen years after the demise of the Fusion appears to be a foregone conclusion.

That Beckham’s discount purchase option has expired (or hasn’t, no one outside of MLS is really sure) doesn’t seem to have any impact. The conversation has moved well beyond discussing Miami’s candidacy and is instead focused on how Beckham can overcome the fairly obvious hurdles that city poses for a professional soccer team.

Meanwhile, in Atlanta, Falcons owner Arthur Blank is making a play to place an MLS franchise the stadium currently planned for his NFL team. The process in Georgia is less public than Beckham’s campaign in Florida, but there’s every reason to believe MLS plans to triple down on the Southeast by backing up Orlando and Miami with a team in Atlanta. If Atlanta does have the inside track, the same questions of viability will dog Atlanta that are already cropping up in Miami.

Beyond those practical concerns, the eventual franchise fee for Blank is also open to speculation. If Man City paid a $100 million premium for access to the nation’s biggest market, and Orlando is entering the League with a (reported) fee around $70 million, how much will the league ask for Atlanta?

For everyone not involved in the actual transaction, the number is simply a signpost on the league’s continuing development and financial growth. Rising expansion fees say a lot about the progress MLS has made in recent years, and the appetite for top-level professional soccer throughout the country.

Additionally, as with every known revenue source, expansion fees are part of the data for the upcoming CBA negotiations set for after the 2014 season. The more money MLS is visibly taking in, the strong the Player Union’s case that more of it should be shared with labor.

If Miami redux is a fait accompli, and Atlanta is on the verge of locking up a third spot in the Southeast, speculation now moves to the final place in a 24-team League (with alignment and schedule also TBD). Handicapping the field is difficult early in the game, but a steady stream of news is increasingly informing the narrative. The obvious contenders share at least some of the following in common:

MLS ambitions

a stadium plan

direct conversations with MLS figures

all of the above

San Antonio is an “all of the above” city. Don Garber attended Mexico’s match against Korea in San Antonio on Wednesday night, using the opportunity to meet, informally, with mayor Julian Castro and San Antonio Scorpions owner Gordon Hartman. The Scorpions are an NASL success story, already possessing their own purpose-built stadium (expandable, just in case) and boasting nearly 7,000 fans a game in 2013. Working against San Antonio at this point is the lack of a big money backer (Hartman is not it) and the presence of two existing MLS teams in Texas.

Charlotte has the ambition, if we’re to take the new owner of the Charlotte Eagles USL PRO franchise at face value. Per a recent report out of North Carolina, the Eagles will move to PDL while their rights to run a USL PRO team in the city will pass to pro lacrosse team owner Jim McPhilliamy. McPhilliamy told the Charlotte Observer that he plans to move the team into 17,500-seat Memorial Stadium and that the ultimate goal is a move up to MLS. While the club will have to prove the efficacy of the move, MLS's new fascination with the Southeast plays to Charlotte’s advantage.

Minneapolis checks several boxes. If there’s some skepticism over the city’s chances at snagging an MLS franchise, it’s mostly due to unfounded geographical bias. Reports have the NASL’s Minnesota United partnered with the Minnesota Twins to explore bringing MLS to Minnesota. Other reports have Vikings owner Zygi Wilf is also interested in bringing first division soccer to a new NFL stadium. This gives the region both the money and the influence to make an MLS team in the upper Midwest a real possibility. The bigger question is what MLS does with competing bids.

A pair of dark horses round out the credible field for team 24. Pro soccer is on the scene in Sacramento in the form of a USL PRO entry and with it came the (now standard) declarations of MLS intent. Sacramento is well beyond the curve set by San Antonio, Charlotte, and Minnesota, but is nonetheless a large market with its own tentative dreams of a downtown stadium. In St. Louis, no legitimate ownership group or stadium plan exists, though the area has a rich soccer history. St Louis expects to have a USL PRO entry in St. Louis in 2015, and could be the first small step towards reviving the city’s chances at MLS.

Keep in mind that 24 as a stopping point might just be a creation of Garber and MLS, a means by which to artificially increase demand for MLS franchises in the short term. There’s no proscription against the league increasing the number of teams beyond 24, nor did any of Garber’s statement directly address stopping at 24. He simply said MLS planned to reach that number by 2020.

What happens beyond that date is anyone’s guess. For the time being, the race is on to be 24.

Jason Davis is the founder of MatchFitUSA.com and the co-host of The Best Soccer Show. Contact him: matchfitusa@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter:http://twitter.com/davisjsn.

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