A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday has Pete Buttigieg leading the Democratic presidential race in Iowa for the first time.

The big picture: Since Monmouth's last Iowa poll in August, Buttigieg gained 14 points, surging ahead of the race's group of longtime frontrunners, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

Yes, but: Fewer than one-third of likely caucus-goers in Iowa say that they are set on their candidate — and most would not be disappointed to switch their support to another candidate before the first-in-the-nation caucuses take place on Feb. 3, 2020.

By the numbers: The results from Monmouth's poll (with point change from its August poll) ...

Buttigieg: 22% (+14)

Biden: 19% (-7)

Warren: 18% (-2)

Sanders: 13% (+5)

Amy Klobuchar: 5% (+2)

Kamala Harris: 3% (-9)

Tom Steyer: 3% (+0)

Andrew Yang: 3% (+2)

Cory Booker: 2% (+1)

Tulsi Gabbard: 2% (+1)

Steve Bullock: 1% (+0)

Julián Castro: 1% (+<1)

All other candidates received less than 1%

Of note: In six of the last eight Democratic presidential primaries without an uncontested incumbent, Iowa Democratic caucus voters selected the candidate who would become the party's nominee.

Since 1972, Iowa Democratic caucus voters have only twice selected the nominee who would eventually become president: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008.

Methodology: This poll was conducted by telephone from Nov. 7 to 11, 2019 with 451 Iowa voters who are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses in Feb. 2020 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

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