Vitor Belfort has always been known for his ability to knock-out his opponents in a quick and decisive fashion – his finishes are included across highlight reels spattered throughout MMA history. Last night Belfort added to that resume in potentially his most dynamic way to-date – throwing up a spinning heel kick followed by a few lethal ground strikes that put a damper on the UFC debut of Luke Rockhold. Now come the cries from the mainstream for the re-match between pound-for-pound middleweight champion Anderson Silva and Belfort. While this fight seems all but ordained, my question is whether or not Belfort actually stands a chance against “The Spider”?

Disclaimer: there will be no mention of TRT in this article, or how it relates to Vitor Belfort.

Anderson Silva’s knock-out of Vitor Belfort at UFC 126 was legendary. Steven Segal’s role aside, the front kick that Silva landed to the jaw of Belfort was one of the most crumpling knock-outs that this writer has seen to-date. Belfort’s was seen as one of the few fighters who had a strong chance at beating Silva, and those hopes went up in flames when Vitor hit the floor; Belfort was written off. Belfort spent too much time trying to size up Silva, and played right into the champs hands… or at least that’s how I saw it from my perspective.

Since that fight, Belfort has been nothing less than impressive, going 4-1 – with that only loss coming at the hands of Jon Jones (a fight he nearly won); all four of those wins have been by finish, 3 by KO/TKO and one by submission. Those wins have also come over respectable opponents – Yoshihiro Akiyama, Anthony Johnson, Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold. Belfort’s credentials at 185 lbs definitely warrant him a title shot in my opinion. Belfort has been taking his time in the cage, landing the kill-shot when it matters.

Anderson Silva, since beating Vitor Belfort, has had no less an impressive performance inside the cage. Silva’s win over Belfort announced something of a small renaissance in his already impressive career. Before finishing Belfort, Silva had nearly lost to Chael Sonnen at UFC 117 and his performances in the octagon prior to that fighwere seen to be somewhat flagging. After that lethal front kick that put down Belfort, Silva has won his last 3 matches by TKO – including one at 205lbs, in which he beat a juiced up Stephan Bonnar (see, Silva also has experience beating juiced up fighters… and I stuck to my disclaimer).

So, we’ve established that both fighters have had impressive fights since the last time they faced each other – now, let’s think about who would win. From my perspective, I don’t see this fight going any other way than with Silva’s hand raised at the end of the match. Silva is still just on another level than most other fighters. One factor few ever discuss when looking at Anderson Silva is his ability to avoid taking any damage at all – he has an 81% takedown defense, which stifles the ground game of Belfort, and an almost unbelievable ability to avoid being hit in matrix-like fashion – so, Belfort loses much of his offense right off the bat.

Silva also gets little credit for actually having a pretty solid chin – he’s taken some big hits, and still stood to tell the tale. Belfort likely wouldn’t need to worry about the shoot from Silva, but in my opinion Belfort has one problem that can’t be unlearned and that’s his chin. When you’re fighting up against a guy with a 68% striking accuracy, you’re going to get hit and get hit hard.

Belfort’s style of fight has changed a lot from the fighter who comes out of the gates swinging, as he did when he started. Not a change, as it evokes less predictability (and he does still swarm) – but, Silva’s strength is his way of using the first few minutes of a fight to get settled and figure out a fighter’s plan. The only time Silva was rattled was when Chael Sonnen came into the octagon and knocked Silva down. If Belfort isn’t going to swarm on Silva, he loses an instant advantage.

So, can Belfort beat Silva? Of course. Will he beat Silva? Probably not. Belfort, has had some impressive wins, and would likely be the middleweight champ if it wasn’t for Silva. However, I haven’t seen anything different in his game since the loss to Silva. I really don’t see any x-factor in his game that will solve the enigma that is Anderson Silva. Silva, meanwhile has just gotten better and better… and I think he will do what he does, and put Befort down. My prediction – Silva by TKO, 2nd round.

One thing I do promise – Belfort will be champion one day of the middleweight division, just not so long as Silva is at the helm.

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Photo Credit: Tiago Cata via Photopin