G-20 summit smackdown: Merkel and Trump to battle for world leadership

Kim Hjelmgaard | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption German Chancellor Angela Merkel is now the 'leader of the free world' President Trump may say his first foreign trip went perfectly, but Germany's Angela Merkel and pundits say otherwise. Nathan Rousseau Smith (@fantasticmrnate) explains.

A leader-of-the-free-world showdown looms between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Trump when she hosts the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg starting Friday.

Based on global opinions of the two leaders, think of a matchup between Europe's real-world political Wonder Woman without the skimpy outfit and a supervillian not dissimilar to Ares, the Greek god of war and archenemy of the comic book character in the new movie.

The two-day G-20 summit brings together the leading industrialized and emerging economies that represent 85% of global GDP for discussions that will include terrorism, global trade, climate change and conflicts that have spawned a flood of refugees. But everyone will be looking to see who picks up the mantle of world leadership.

A survey of world opinion published by Pew Research Center last week found negative views of Trump and many of his actions, such as withdrawing from international trade and climate change accords and a temporary ban on entry into the U.S. by people from six Muslim-majority nations.

Just 22% of those surveyed in 37 countries have confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs.

A U.S. poll published by Quinnipiac University on June 8 found that only 46% of American voters view Trump as the "leader of the free world," while 29% said it is Merkel. Voters disapproved of Trump's handling of foreign policy, especially his "unfriendly" approach to European and NATO allies.

In the face of Trump's unpopularity, Merkel may try to show in Hamburg that "Germany, perhaps along with a few of its friends, are the real leaders of the free world," said Michael Wohlgemuth, a Berlin political affairs expert.

"People trust her. She seems to be a reliable broker. She doesn't come up with very radical views," he said. "In fact, she takes an extremely mainstream, multilateral position on most issues, but she stands firmly against protectionism and isolationism — qualities that the G-20 was, after all, originally established to fight against."

Merkel presides over Europe's largest economy, which is on the upswing, and she has the most clout among the 28 nations that belong to the European Union and the 19 that use the euro currency — although she doesn't always get her way.

Merkel, Europe's longest serving leader, took the lead in welcoming war refugees fleeing to Europe and she is in a strong position to win a fourth term as chancellor in national elections this fall.

Merkel and Trump have met three times since he took office in January, and none of the encounters said much for their personal chemistry.

Four days after a G-7 summit in Sicily in late May, Merkel said in remarks seen as a rebuke of the American president that "the times in which we could completely rely on others are over to a certain extent."

Merkel did not hide her disappointment that Trump wouldn't endorse an international pact to combat global warming — an agreement he withdrew from once back on American soil. Her comments also reflected a rocky NATO summit in Brussels earlier in May, when Trump failed to publicly back the military alliance's doctrine of collective defense, as every U.S. president has since Harry Truman.

And at their first face-to-face meeting at the White House in March, the body language between the two leaders was awkward. When she asked Trump for a handshake in the Oval Office in front of the news media, he didn't respond and appeared stone-faced before the cameras.

Merkel told the German Parliament last week that the Paris climate accord is "irreversible" and not "negotiable," and that the EU is "more determined than ever" to see it succeed — even without American participation.

"We cannot expect easy talks in Hamburg," Merkel said. "The disagreement is obvious, and it would be dishonest to gloss over it. I won’t do that, in any case."

In another sign of fraying U.S.-German tensions, a video feed of U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was cut-off mid-speech June 27 as he addressed a business conference in Germany organized by Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic Union party.

The event's organizers said Ross went over his allotted 10-minute slot. His speech repeated critical comments made by Trump about Germany's trade surplus with the U.S. The German audience cheered when the video feed was silenced.

Merkel and Trump also are contrasting personalities. He is spontaneous, boastful and unpredictable in actions and tweets. She is cautious, modest and deliberate in word and deed.

While some G-20 participants may look to Merkel for leadership, Germany's history as the Nazi aggressor in World War II makes it hard for the country to take on too dominant a global leadership role today, said Peter Beyer, a politician from Merkel's party.

"You will never hear any of this 'leader of the free world' language from Merkel," he said.

Beyer said Merkel has more than Trump to worry about at the summit. Also attending is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who opposes EU sanctions imposed in response to Russia's intervention in Ukraine. His government also is accused by Western leaders of trying to disrupt elections in their countries, including the U.S. and Germany.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan poses another challenge for her. He wants entry into the EU, but Merkel has been critical of his crackdown on democratic institutions since a failed coup a year ago. Erdogan also is a key player in the EU's efforts to limit the flow of migrants to Europe by paying to keep them in Turkey.

Putin and Erdogan "will also be in the room in Hamburg and it's going to be a real challenge to get the balance right," Beyer said. Merkel "has to create an atmosphere without too much tension. But she will, as she always manages to on these occasions, by being calm, polite, professional, sticking to the facts."

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