Theresa May will probably survive the final Commons vote on Brexit because the Conservatives’ instincts for survival will override any divisions over the eventual deal, the elections expert John Curtice has said.



He said there was no evidence yet that enough leave voters now believed the UK would be better off remaining in the EU to force the prime minister into reversing Brexit.

“In all probability, by this time next year we will have done a deal with the EU, it will have got a vote in the House of Commons and Theresa May will still be prime minister. But that is a probabilistic statement not a certainty. Therein lies the fascination of 2018,” he said.

New polling from NatCen, a social research institute that Curtice advises, has found increasing dissatisfaction among leave voters about the government’s handling of the Brexit talks. The proportion of voters who think the Tories are handling negotiations badly has jumped from 41% in February last year to 61% in the latest survey. Only 15% believe the UK government is doing well.

Pro-remain campaigners believe the growing discontent could be converted into Brexit being halted, but Curtice said it did not mean leave voters were rejecting their choice.



“People think the UK government is making a balls-up; they also think the EU is making a balls-up. [It] is leave voters in particular who think they’re making a balls-up. But the reaction is not ‘we was wrong’, it’s ‘you guys ain’t delivering’,” he said.

“The presumption on the remain side that people’s minds will be changed simply because of a failure to deliver is probably wrong. The constant remain/remoan argument is: ‘Oh look, we told you this would happen, this isn’t possible.’ The answer is: ‘It bloody well should be.’”

The NatCen survey found that a majority of Scottish voters disagree with Nicola Sturgeon’s calls for Holyrood to take control over trade and immigration policy in Scotland. It found that 63% back a single UK-wide immigration system and 67% back a UK-wide trade policy. It also found 59% of Scots think EU migrants should face the same visa and border controls as non-EU visitors.

A majority back Sturgeon’s calls for Holyrood to keep control over farming (59%) and fishing (62%), policy areas that are already devolved to Scotland.

Curtice said that while Scottish voters took a slightly more nuanced stance on Brexit than voters in England and Wales – Scots are somewhat more likely to favour free movement in return for a free trade deal – most voters did not like freedom of movement.

“Brexit poses a fundamental challenge to the theology of the European Union: the UK public doesn’t accept that free trade and freedom of movement necessarily go together,” he said. “The point is, people come with social externalities that goods don’t necessary come with.” In other words, voters may like an east European delicatessen in the neighbourhood but not necessarily more east Europeans as neighbours.

Curtice, one of the UK’s best known academic commentators, has won a loyal following after overseeing a string of highly accurate exit polls for the BBC and ITV that confounded party predictions and opinion polls.

A professor of politics at Strathclyde University, he never uses his academic title in ordinary life. And after being knighted in the New Year honours, he has no plans to be called Sir either. “I still travel as Mr John Curtice and I shall continue to travel as Mr John Curtice,” he said.

This year ought to be relatively quiet for him. There are no general, European or Scottish parliament elections planned, but there are London borough and English council elections, which will be fresh tests of Tory popularity.

The central issue is whether May and the EU can strike a deal that her cabinet, split between Eurosceptics and Europhiles, can unite on. “The $64,000 question is that if at some point the UK cabinet finds itself facing a choice between no deal and some deal only half of them thinks is OK, will she still manage to keep the show on the road?” Curtice said.

He believes Labour’s revival under Jeremy Corbyn owes far more to young social liberals who would normally back the Lib Dems than to leftwing voters. And despite the evidence that Corbyn appears to be ignoring strong support for an anti-Brexit stance among Labour voters, Curtice thinks the apparent ambiguities in Labour’s approach on the EU may be useful.

“It seems that they’re watching and waiting. And given the country is divided down the middle, arguably it is not a stupid position,” Curtice said.

He said the crunch for Corbyn would come this spring when May needs to set out her position on a trade deal. Then, said Curtice, Corbyn will be forced to take a stand.