PHOENIX — John McCain is hoping for a blowout in his Senate primary on Tuesday. He’s bracing for a squeaker.

McCain says people in his state are angry, the economic recovery is uneven and the atmosphere is volatile. He expects to prevail over conservative challenger Kelli Ward, but the margin of victory will decide whether he barrels or limps into the toughest general election fight of his 34-year political career, against Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.


“It’s not so much I think it’s close. I just don’t think you should heighten expectations,” McCain said in an interview. “The one thing you never want to do in politics is heighten expectations. You always want to lowball it. That's just the best way to handle it. Plan for the worst and hope for the best.”

Six years ago, McCain blew out insurgent rival J.D. Hayworth by 24 points with a $20 million show of force that demonstrated how long-serving Republicans could fend off the party’s tea party wing. Ward is seen as a significantly smaller threat, and McCain has spent far more judiciously against her, spending $6 million but stashing $5 million in his war chest for the general election, as of the latest campaign filings in mid-August.

Barring a stunning upset, he will face off against Kirkpatrick, a centrist Democrat backed by the national party. Democrats would love nothing more than to upset a fixture of Republican politics — in a longtime GOP stronghold that’s been gradually trending left thanks to the state's skyrocketing Latino population.

Though polls have shown a sizable lead for McCain over Ward, Republicans are bracing for the possibility that McCain wins by single digits on Tuesday given the volatile political atmosphere in Arizona and the nation. The presidential primary process gave the GOP Donald Trump, so McCain allies aren’t taking anything for granted in a state where McCain was censured by the state Republican Party just two years ago.

So McCain is sticking to the political playbook he always returns to: Treat all challengers seriously, never relax and scrape for one more vote than his opponent.

“Everyone has a favorite animal, you know what John McCain’s is? The rat. And the rat is a survivor just like John McCain,” said a person close to the five-term senator. “John is very politically skittish, he’s nervous about election days. He’s got superstitions, rabbit’s feet.”

McCain’s taken it so far as to refuse to speak about his priorities for 2017 should he win, lest he appear to be counting chickens. Asked if a blowout would allow him to have more latitude to run his own race in the general election against Kirkpatrick, McCain flatly said no.

“A win is a win,” he insisted.

Still, a massive victory over Ward would go a long way to calm anxious national Republicans worried about McCain. Even if he wins by 10 points it would still be his closest primary since McCain ran for his House seat 34 years ago. He’s won resoundingly in every race since.

Kelli Ward, a former Senator from Arizona, speaks during a campaign stop in Phoenix on August 11. | Getty

Ward seems to find little solace in the fact that she’s giving McCain enough worries to shift some of his resources against her in the waning days of the primary, calling her the wrong choice for a “dangerous world.” The possibility of a surprisingly strong second-place finish did little to motivate her in an interview last week.

“I only count victory as a victory. It’s not horse shoes. This is an election. I want to win it. I want to win it resoundingly,” Ward said.

Such an upset would be on par with the defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), and given McCain’s boy-scout-like preparedness in his reelection campaigns, appears exceedingly unlikely. But the damage from a close finish with Ward could linger and Democrats are hoping for a photo finish.

"He’s got a tough primary," Kirkpatrick said. “She’s working hard.”

Ward is attempting to sow doubt among conservatives about McCain’s already tepid support for Trump, arguing he could abandon the GOP nominee in the general election. (Not happening, the senator says.) And Kirkpatrick is making the precise opposite argument, declaring that McCain, by refusing to disavow Trump, has lost his famous independent streak.

It's nothing new for McCain to be on defense with the Republican Party base. But it is a first for him to have two tough races the same year. And with many of his GOP colleagues even more endangered than he is, there will be increased pressure on him from the national party to dispatch his primary and general election opponents on his own, without requiring precious resources from the national party.

Some of the opposition to McCain is baked into the Republican electorate of Arizona, with its conservative factions leery of his leadership on immigration and campaign finance reform. There’s a ceiling to McCain’s primary support in Arizona, Republicans say, and he’s never going to win a massive share of the vote when there’s an alternative running to his right.

But the same issues hobbling his support with conservatives may become an asset in the general election. His allies say it's difficult to imagine a Republican incumbent built better for November than McCain.

“John McCain doesn’t win primaries with big splashes. He’s never going to win 70-30,” said longtime adviser Charlie Black. “McCain’s a bigger figure in Arizona than Trump or [Hillary] Clinton. I’m not too worried about it right now.”