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Gameweek 22 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals.

The purpose of this article is to help you identify the Premier League teams with the best clean sheet and goal scoring potential for Gameweek 22.

Both of these factors are essential for FPL (or any fantasy football game) as your fortunes and point totals are hugely dependent on goals scored and clean sheets secured.

All data is provided by our partners: All Fantasy Tips.

How to use these numbers

These numbers are based on a statistical model where each team has a unique rating for scoring and conceding goals. This rating is based on various factors from the previous 10-50 Premier League matches, and it is updated on regular basis.

Making use of these numbers can give you a huge advantage in many ways:

Gain an edge by identifying the favourites and most likely scorers, compare the clean sheet potential of lower-tier clubs such as West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke or solidify your initial gut picks with statistical findings.

Gameweek 22 Tips

Clean sheets: Chelsea 65%, Arsenal 52%, West Brom 43%

Expected goals: Liverpool 3.45, Chelsea 2.90, Arsenal 2.31

When it comes to clean sheets, Chelsea are nothing short of a banker this weekend. The Blues have an easy home fixture against relegation flirters Hull. This is a big mismatch as Chelsea are ranked second best for goals conceded at home this season (6), while their competitors are ranked 18th for goals scored away from home.

Over 60% clean sheet probability is a HUGE number, so if you are considering some wild captain moves or have been thinking about gambling on a defender for some time, you won’t get a better opportunity than this – Marcus Alonso being the obvious choice following his brace in Gameweek 21.

Arsenal are runners up in this category… so none of the fourth placed jokes! They have what looks a relatively easy home fixture on paper, however, Burnley are much more stubborn than the aforementioned Hull. They hardly ever score on their travels, and we literally mean hardly ever; three times away from home all season.

West Brom’s appearance in is slightly more surprising. They come in at third ahead of Liverpool and Man United and you are mistaken if you think Albion’s defence has lost it’s touch for securing clean sheets.

There’s no doubt that Tony Pulis is livid and he will be drilling his players with defensive ploys as we speak. I mean if he can’t keep a clean sheet against David Moyes, then it defeats the purpose of his style and profession!

Liverpool are in a category of their own in terms of attacking potential. Pay attention to the gap between them and Man United for example. The algorithm predicts that they will find the net a couple more times than their fierce rivals.

According to the algorithm, although he can be frustrating at times, Roberto Firmino is arguably more dangerous than Zlatan this weekend. Sadio Mane has departed to AFCON, but Coutinho is expected to return to the starting XI.

Chelsea are expected to find the net at least twice this weekend. Diego Costa’s selection is still up in the air, however, Antonio Conte’s men have already fired three past Leicester and Bournemouth without the Spaniard.

Arsenal are third here, making Alexis Sanchez a decent Captain candidate once again. The tenacious striker/winger has been in the headlines for his disgruntled attitude to being substituted, but this just shows the standard he sets himself and the drive he will have heading into Gameweek 22.

The past performance:

Here you can see how the top candidates of this algorithm have performed in the previous weeks. As you can see, the numbers can predict the outcomes pretty nicely!

Clean Sheet Accuracy (Top Candidates): 63%

Goals Scored Per Match (Top Candidates): 2.58