TOKYO -- Judging solely from recent earnings announcements by major Japanese retailers, one might think the country's consumption picture is brightening. A closer look reveals that the picture is skewed.

The aggregate pretax profit of listed retailers climbed 10% in the fiscal year through February, when most of them close their books. Yet real spending by households with two or more family members was down for the sixth straight month in February, adjusting for the leap year, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

This divergence can be chalked up, in part, to the influx of foreign tourists to Japan. The visitor count hit an all-time high of nearly 20 million last year, up about 50%, according to the Japan Tourism Agency.

At least all those travelers are helping to make up for sluggish spending by domestic consumers, right? Well, yes and no.

The visitors did spend a record 3.5 trillion yen ($32.85 billion) in 2015, up 70%. The number almost equals the combined annual sales of Japan's top department store operators: Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, J. Front Retailing and Takashimaya.

Nationwide department store sales to foreign tourists surged 160% last year to 194.3 billion yen, accounting for 3% of the total. At Takashimaya, clothing sales to domestic customers declined but those to foreign shoppers increased significantly.

The 3.5 trillion yen in overall tourist outlays is equivalent to slightly more than 1% of all consumer spending in Japan, which totaled about 300 trillion yen. When it comes to calculating the nation's gross domestic product, sales to international visitors are categorized as exports. GDP data for the three months through December showed a 0.9% decline in household spending, the first year-on-year fall in two quarters.

But beyond statistical semantics, there is another issue: a clear gap between companies that are benefiting from the tourism boom and those that are not.

Winners take all

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported that combined sales at all types of retailers came to about 140 trillion yen for the year ended February, down slightly from a year ago. But sales at 84 listed companies -- roughly 20% of the businesses surveyed -- rose 7%.

Put simply, unlisted small and midsize retailers and independent shops are having a tough time, while the big boys are ringing up solid sales. The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey for March bears this out. The diffusion index of business sentiment among large retailers was 18, compared with minus 10 for small ones.

The real winners are concentrated in the nation's biggest cities. Minoru Noguchi, president of shoe store chain ABC-Mart, said there is an obvious disparity in spending between urban and rural areas. Saikaya, which runs three department stores in Kanagawa Prefecture -- not far from Tokyo -- has received no boost from spending by travelers, according to President Yozo Okamoto.

Looking ahead, the question is whether the gap between winners and losers will continue to widen. On the contrary, it may begin to narrow this year -- and not because things are getting any easier for unlisted retailers outside premier urban centers.

Trouble ahead

Listed retailers could encounter headwinds. First, further yen appreciation will make shopping in Japan more expensive for tourists.

For this fiscal year, department store operator Matsuya expects sales to foreign visitors to level off. "We had better remain on guard," President Masaki Akita said.

Japanese stocks, meanwhile, could come under renewed selling pressure. "That will cast a shadow over spending by wealthy individuals," said Ryoichi Yamamoto, president of J. Front Retailing.

Analysts who follow the retail sector have been lowering their earnings forecasts since last November.

Dairo Murata at JPMorgan Securities Japan warned that if domestic consumer spending continues to slow, companies could have trouble meeting market expectations.