Friday 7/14 MLB Slate Analysis

After an up and down (overall, slightly down) first half of the MLB season, I find myself re-invigorated after the all-star break. I have $30 in my Draftkings account and am determined to have a profitable second half of the season.

I have put together quite an impressive (I think so, at least) spreadsheet that gives me quick data about players and their matchups for each day. I use this spreadsheet for almost all of my lineup building. The main stats that this sheet gives me that I use to evaluate players are below.

For pitchers: K/9, BB/9, HR/9, Hard%, Soft%, GB%, FB%, LD%, BABIP – the sheet also shows me these stats against both righties and lefties.

For batters: K%, BB%, wOBA, ISO, Hard%, Soft%, GB%, FB%, BABIP – the sheet only gives me splits so I am only considering data based on the opposing SP that day

I have the sheet all programmed to where I have to do as little entry as possible to get the data (I just update the data every 5 days from Fangraphs and then type in SP’s and teams and the lineups are auto-populated).

I am mainly a cash game player. I will commit to playing 20% of my bankroll every day, with 80% of that going towards double-ups and the other 20% in larger tournaments.

Let’s get this started on a positive note! Here’s my thoughts on the Friday slate, I’m going to go game by game here.

Game 1 – Cardinals vs. Pirates | vs.

It’s a huge 15 game slate, so neither of these pitchers is of interest to me. Their strikeout rates simply aren’t high enough to justify their inconsistencies. As for hitters, I’m not targeting much of anybody against Leake as he has a .292 wOBA to righties and a .301 wOBA to lefties, both very solid numbers. Cole is also tough on righties but he got hit very hard against lefties (.367 wOBA, 42.1% hard contact) in the first half. The Cardinals don’t have much in terms of lefty bats, but (.373 wOBA vs. righties) and (.364 wOBA vs. righties) interest me a bit. Carpenter probably won’t make my final list because he only plays 1B on DK and Cole is a guy that can shut down a lineup if he’s going right.

Game 2 – Cubs vs. Orioles | vs.

Moderate interest in here at first glance. He’s allowed just a .322 wOBA to righties and a .241 to lefties. His K rate isn’t awful, and the Orioles have some guys that can really strike out against lefties. The only really scary hitter in this lineup against lefties this year has been . I think Montgomery is playable, although he got hit very hard in his last start against the Brewers, but the lower price tag may be worth giving him a shot.

Gausman had a terrible first half but has looked a little better lately. Both righties and lefties have hit for a high wOBA against him, with righties striking out way more (8.39 K/9 to 6.63 K/9). The homers have come from both sides of the plate but more to righties. , , and all have great numbers against righties this year so they’ll all be in consideration for me. I’m also writing down too just in case no other affordable catchers stand out, although I’m not excited about the 30% K rate to righties he has.

Game 3 – Rockies vs. Mets | vs. Jacob deGrom

Both of these pitchers are going to be in consideration for me. is priced down ($7900 on DK) which makes him worth consideration even against the Mets who have been tough on righties this year. You’ll have to pay a premium for deGrom but the strikeout upside is as good as anyone. He’s been giving up some runs lately and the Rockies aren’t a terrible lineup, so I’ll probably end up elsewhere, but I don’t blame anyone who plays him.

Hitters are just going to be hands off here, there are better places to find offense.

Game 4 – Yankees vs. Red Sox | vs.

Pineda had a very solid second half but seemed to really tail off at the end of the first half, so I’m not going to be paying for him against the Red Sox. Pomeranz has some very confusing splits, he’s allowed just a .291 wOBA to righties but a very high .391 to lefties. However, his K rate is through the roof against lefties with 15.06 K/9 (in 17.1 innings). Those numbers don’t make a ton of sense, but Pomeranz really isn’t a guy you want to go overboard picking on. is certainly in play and I’ll have him in my pool in case I can afford him. quietly had a .374 wOBA to lefties with a 45.2% hard contact in the first half, he’s a decent salary saver. Other than that, there aren’t many hitters I’m interested in.

The way to pick on Pineda is with low strikeout, high power hitters from either side of the plate. , , , and all have low strikeout rates but not an exorbitant amount of power, I’m doubting any of these guys make it into my lineups, but I could see reason for playing them.

Game 5 – Nationals vs. Reds | vs.

Gio was on quite a roll to end the first half of the season, but his price is jacked way up and the Reds have some really good hitters against lefties. I won’t be playing either with his .355 wOBA against to righties and home run problem (1.77 HR/9 to righties, 2.35 HR/9 to lefties).

This is a phenomenal matchup for and against a guy who can’t strike out lefties and gives up a 51% fly ball rate. They’ll be near the top plays at their position. I don’t mind either for some savings if he cracks the lineup.

is elite against lefties but did give up 1.47 HR/9 and a 35.3% hard contact rate to righties in the first half. (.439 wOBA to lefties), (.379), and (.451) make for nice plays, although Suarez and Cozart have been cold lately.

Game 6 – Blue Jays vs. Tigers | vs.

is usuall not a guy to pick on, but he got absolutely destroyed by the Astros last time out. I’m hands off of him. Verlander hasn’t been himself this year but the strikeouts are still good enough for him to be considered (8.43 K/9). The Blue Jays have some tough hitters to righties (5 guys over the league average in wOBA), but they aren’t an elite offense in this scenario. I don’t mind Verlander at $8400, he’ll be in consideration.

Hitters wise, there’s nothing that I’m excited about here. People will probably be jumping on some Tigers after Sanchez’s blow up in his first start back, but I think he’ll be much better here. is always in consideration for me as he has a .424 wOBA and a ridiculous 59.3% hard contact against righties this year, so he’ll probably be the lone Tiger that makes my list. is priced so low that I won’t fault anyone for playing him, but there’s some opportunity cost paying down at first base.

Game 7 – Dodgers vs. Marlins | vs.

Both of these pitchers are guys that I don’t play often, but I also don’t play hitters against often. McCarthy’s strikeouts are low (6.69 K/9 this year), but he’s been great at run prevention. Righties hit just .278 on him and lefties are worse at .252. He also is great at keeping the ball in the yard (.75 HR/9 to righties and .21 HR/9 to leftie). The Marlins are not a great offense and usually beat pitchers with the long ball, so McCarthy is actually a pretty high-floor play for me here. I’m not using Straily here against the Dodgers.

As for hitters, the only guys I’m eyeing right now are and . Both hit righties well and are priced fairly.

Game 8 – D’Backs vs. Braves | vs.

is priced at $6500 which makes him interesting for me. He has a .287 wOBA to righties and a .337 wOBA to lefties in limited time this year. His strikeout rate is at 7.97. All of this seems like to be pretty good for a guy that’s priced that low. The Braves aren’t a slouch offense against righties however, as , , , and all have pretty solid numbers to righties, and the game is in (what we think is) a hitter friendly ballpark. The Braves don’t offer immense strikeout upside either, but I think Walker is going to be one of the best value plays at pitcher.

Hitter wise, I never know what to do with targeting against Dickey. I do like to use BvP numbers against Dickey just because of the knuckleball, but no D’Back has more than 11 plate appearances against him. I think is a nice play with that stolen base upside, and you usually can’t go wrong with – although I don’t think that’s how I want to spend my money on this slate. could fit in a lineup if you need a second baseman for less than 4K, and Chris Herrman is a better than average hitter for a guy you can play at catcher, but I’m not thrilled about any of these guys.

For the Braves, we can now play at third base, so he’s definitely in play over there even with the $4900 price tag. That’s probably the only Braves that I will be considering here.

Game 9 – Phillies vs. Brewers | vs.

has shown some flashes of upside here in his rookie campaign, but the Brewers aren’t an offense I want to pick on when I’m looking for a high floor from my pitcher. has been bad this year and won’t be considered even against the weak Phillies offense.

There’s a great chance for some offense here, with my favorite targets being Brewers righties (Pivetta has allowed a .415 wOBA to righties and a 39.1% hard contact in 30.1 innings) and Phillies lefties (Davies has a .364 wOBA and 1.51 HR/9 to lefties). , , and aren’t my favorite targets but they’re in consideration from the Milwaukee side, and I’ll take a look at and Nick Williams from the Phillies side of things (they are both priced too low in my opinion).

Game 10 – Mariners vs. White Sox | vs.

Paxton has been great as a whole this year with a .282 wOBA to righties, a .206 wOBA to lefties, and a 10.07 overall K/9. The White Sox do have some very strong hitters to lefties, which knocks my interest down on Paxton a bit and I probably won’t be paying the $9900 for him. is not a guy I will ever play.

Hitters wise, I’m fully hands off on White Sox. Paxton’s K rate and talent is just too much for me to feel good about picking on him, although the White Sox are priced way down and could help us get some of the higher price tags in. (.427 wOBA to lefties and only $3500 on DK) may sneak in a lineup of mine.

The way to pick on Shields this year has been with left handed bats, which puts , , and in play. I like Cano a lot with his miniscule 10.4% K rate and 39.2% hard contact rate. Gamel is a decent cost saver at $3300 and presumably batting in the 2 hole.

Game 11 – Twins vs. Astros | vs.

Two surprisingly excellent pitchers this year going at it. I never want to play a pitcher against the Astros, and Morton is a bit inconsistent and didn’t have the strikeout pitch in his first start back from injury, so I don’t see myself playing either of these pitchers.

The only bats I’d consider would be righties against Morton, as they have hit for a .367 wOBA and 1.65 HR/9 with a 36% hard contact rate against him this year. I don’t want high strikeout players against Morton in cash games, so my interest is restricted to minimal interest in at his low $3400 pricetag. In tournaments, is a great play as usual.

Game 12 – Rangers vs. Royals | vs.

Both of these pitchers are very unsafe so I won’t be touching either of them. For hitters, I like all the righties in this matchup as Perez gives up a .361 wOBA and 36.5% hard contact to righties, and Hammel gives up a .352 wOBA and 1.71 HR/9 to them. has hit for a .380 wOBA against righties in his 120 plate appearances this year, so he’s one of the many third basemen worth considering. is also viable in the outfield as he has a .346 wOBA to righties and has power upside. On the Royals side, and are the only ones making my list, as the Royals just haven’t been able to score many runs this year that don’t involve one of those two bats.

Game 13 – Indians vs. Athletics | vs.

has a 10.36 K/9 to righties and a 9 K/9 to lefties. The Athletics strike out a bunch, so Carrasco is a great play here, although DK knows that as well and have him priced at $12,100. has been good this year (.300 wOBA to righties and .285 to lefties while limiting homers and hard contact), but the Indians are a bit too intimidating for me to feel comfortable using him.

I see no hitters I want to target here.

Game 14 – Rays vs. Angels | vs.

has been a popular play since he came up as he has posted some nice numbers (.254 wOBA to righties, .238 to lefties, 8.69 K/9 total), and he gets a pretty decent matchup with the Angels. will most likely be back in the lineup, which makes you like this play less, but the Angels really don’t have much fire power against righties besides him. and are the only other two with an above average wOBA to righties, and neither of them have good ISO’s, so there damage is mainly done by singles. I like Faria quite a bit.

Nolasco has been hit hard this year, especially by righties. The Rays have some guys that have really crushed right handed pitching this year and none of these guys are priced super high. This is one of the better offenses to take hitters from in my opinion. , , , and are great plays.

You can play if you want to as he’s priced at $4500 and probably won’t be below $5000 for long, but Faria isn’t the ideal matchup if that matters to you.

Game 15 – Giants vs. Padres | vs.

gets a great matchup against the strikeout heavy Padres, but he hasn’t been very good this year. Righties have a .343 wOBA on him and have him homers at a good rate (1.65 HR/9). The Padres are not an imposing offense, and Cueto’s price isn’t exorbitant, so I think there’s merit to playing him here.

I don’t want any Padres bats, but I do want some Giants righties as Richard has given up a .377 wOBA to righties and 1.52 HR/9 this year. is a great play if you want to pay up at catcher, and is worth a shot if he’s batting at the top of the lineup with his really low K rate (8.5% against lefties).

Okay well that took forever. Now let’s recap with my favorite plays, sorted.

SP:

1. Carrasco 12100

2. Faria 8200

3. Gray 7900

4. deGrom 11800

5. Cueto 8900

6. McCarthy 6900

7. Verlander 8400

8. Montgomery 7800

C:

1. Posey 3800

2. Perez 3900

3. Avila 3500

4. Grandal 3500

5. Herrmann 2900

1B:

1. Rizzo 4800

2. Freeman 4900

3. Morrison 4100

4. Carpenter 3800

2B:

1. Cano 4200

2. Murphy 5200

3. Happ 4800

4. Pedroia 3800

5. Drury 3600

3B:

1. Freeman 4900

2. Beltre 4200

3. Bryant 5200

4. Seager 3300

5. Turner 4600

6. Suarez 3700

SS:

1. Galvis 3600

2. Drew 3500

3. Cozart 4300

OF (I do these by A’s, B’s, and C’s):

A’s:

Harper 5600, Dickerson 3500, Gamel 3300, 4000

B’s:

Souza 4300, Nick Williams 3800, Duvall 4700, Pollock 4300

C’s:

Fowler 4300, Grossman 3400, Nunez 4000

With $30 in my bankroll, I’ll be playing $6.25 worth of contests, with one lineup, divied up like this:

$4 – Double-Ups

$2 – Friends contest (5 man, winner take all)

$0.25 – Quarter Arcade (just in case)

Good luck grinders!