Lewis Brinson is one of those players that every scout has their own equally solid observations that help them "know" whether he is going to cut it or not. I have talked to a plethora of scouts who knew he would never hit because his swing is long and he doesn't have an eye for off-speed, and I've talked to scouts who said his elite tools could make him a star if he was able to refine himself. One thing all scouts agree on, Lewis Brinson is one of the most athletic players to don a professional baseball uniform.



Introduction to Lewis Brinson

If I could suck out the talent and athleticism like the little aliens in Space Jam, I would probably choose Brinson. Standing at 6'3" 180 pounds with near all of his extra weight in muscle, he screams power and speed combo. Lewis Brinson was drafted out of high-school in the 1st round 29th pick overall by the Rangers in 2012. His scouting reports at the time read that he was project-able, fast, tall, quick hands, and smart; but his plate approach was poor and his hit tool might never develop. One of the quick comparisons made was that he was a similar pick to Jake Skole. Brinson's first season in rookie ball was better than the Rangers could have hoped for; he performed well at the plate while improving to become one of the best true center-fielders in the Ranger's system. Brinson's struggles started in 2013 when he struck out 191 times in 447 at bats, one of the highest strikeout totals in A ball history. The power and speed was there though, Brinson hit 21 homeruns and stole 24 bases. He also struggled with staying healthy as his hamstring pulls became a regular thing during the 2013-2014 seasons. 2015 changed everything when one simple thing changed, Lewis Brinson started hitting.



Scouting Report

I have now had the opportunity to see Brinson about 30 times in person and every single time I did was in 2015. Thus my scouting report is completely limited to the player I saw in recent months.



Hit: 45/55



Brinson's future hit tool was considered to be around 35-50 depending on the scout, however this season it changed for me. His swing used to be very different from swing to swing; he would often uppercut in fastball counts and whiff whenever junk was thrown his way. In 2015 Brinson's approach, mechanics, and swing consistency shifted for the better. He started utilizing a 2 strike approach, was able to recognize breaking pitches and lay-off or make solid contact, and had a much smoother and more consistent swing. My favorite change is Brinson's barrel control, which leads me to my favorite video of him, shot by Scott Lucas. Brinson's swing has been refined, the barrel finds the ball even on the inside corner. He makes hard contact with some tough pitches and is able to barrel placement all around the zone. His swing stays compact and his hands quickly get into position. His swing still has some strange moving parts and his hands tend to travel a long way from his original position to the ball, but the improvement is obvious. I tend to think Brinson has the ability to consistently hit for a .275-.280 average.





Power: 50/60



Brinson has raw power and he will only get stronger as he nears his middle/late 20's. He has plus bat speed and his year we saw a change in leverage that led to a few more dingers. His swing is still mostly tailored for line-drives, but it's possible we see some high 20's, low 30's home-run totals at his peak.

This video shows a pretty good example of a Lewis Brinson HR. It reminds me of a Kinsler dong where the ball is inside and Brinson pulls a scorched liner out of the park. Brinson's got more than that though, he also regularly takes pitchers oppo and generally can just hit the ball hard anywhere in the park.



Speed: 65/60

Brinson's fast. I have not timed him myself, but scouts usually have him at 4.10-4.12 to first base as a righty. He's not a gigantic base stealing threat as his reads from the pitcher are mediocre at best. His instincts aren't great either and he has trouble reading the ball of the bat. He's still an average base runner though and 20 steals in a season is foreseeable. His speed plays much better in the field where he accelerates quickly and is able to adjust and change directions well. As he puts on more muscle, his acceleration will drop a bit.



Glove: 65



I tend to disagree with scouts that he is one of the top defenders in the minors, but Brinson could easily prove me wrong. His reads are usually pretty good and glove is a vacuum. I'm not sold on his routs though and I am looking forward to seeing them on Stattrack once he hits the majors. I've seen him get a great break on a ball only to have it go slightly over his head because he didn't angle back enough. This is unusual though because his speed does make up for his mistakes when he makes them. Brinson will stick at CF at least for the early-mid stages of his career, and when he is older he will easily transition to LF or RF.



Arm: 55/60



Lewis is also in possession of a + arm. It's not Leonys Martin's and it won't ever be, but there will be some outfield assists and some runners who stop because he's throwing. His arm would be a 60-65 right now, but he's prone to accuracy mistakes from inconsistent mechanics.

Makeup

Brinson's makeup is great to have on your team. He's a good clubhouse guy and he plays the game with a lot of passion. He sometimes gets upset at umps, and sometimes he gets heated at other players, but sometimes that passion is just what a team needs. Brinson works his ass off to make himself a better player and he works out so his physique should stay around. He's well-spoken and the one time I spoke to him he seemed thoughtful and intelligent.



Final Thoughts

Brinson is a (possible) 5 tool guy with a few questions that increase the risk that he might never be a productive player. One by one, those questions are slipping away and that risk keeps going down. At this point Brinson's realistic lower end possibility, barring injury problems, is 2011 Drew Stubbs with worse base-running. That would be a nice 1-1.5 win player and Brinson would be a great role player/platoon bat/4th outfielder on a 1st division team. Mike Cameron is a really good comparison, but Brinson's batting stats scream young Ruben Sierra to me. From 1988-1993 Sierra averaged 36 doubles, 6 triples, 23 home runs, and 16 SBs per season with a slash line of .277/.325/.456; good for a 112 wRC+. Sierra averaged around 3.5 wins per season over those years, but Brinson is a better defender and will get a better positional adjustment than Sierra did. If Brinson is just slightly better than average in CF, a 112 wRC+ will net him a 5 win season. The real reason I like the young Sierra comp is because I think Brinson's potential peak is higher than Mike Cameron's was. Brinson could replicate Sierra's 1989 campaign in which he hit 29 home runs, had a BB/K ratio of .52, and had a slash of .306/.347/.543 good for a wRC+ of 145. Brinson probably doesn't quite hit for that average or slugging, but if he hits .290/.330/.520 and continues to play above average defense he would be a 7+ win player. It is a peak for a reason and most players never hit their peaks, but it is one of the many reasons that make Lewis Brinson one of the most exciting players to watch in baseball.