With the calendar moving from 2014 to 2015, attention moves towards the next AFL season and the anticipation of the return of Australian rules football grows.

To go with that change of year and to build on that anticipation, here are 15 bold predictions for the season ahead.

1. A team from outside the top four makes the grand final

Last year the seven-year monkey on the back of the top four teams making the preliminary finals was broken. With one monkey gone, a gorilla on the back is made to be broken with a team from outside the top four making it to the AFL decider in October 2015.

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2. One of last year’s preliminary finalists misses the eight

North Melbourne and Port Adelaide are both facing a tougher schedule in 2015 and bear the weight of expectation. Hawthorn and Sydney both face the battle of complacency after many years being benchmark AFL teams. Seems unlikely right now, but one of these four is going to embark on a brutal 2015 season that sees a contender fall short.

3. AFL home-and-away attendances will fall below 6.4 million for 2015

The AFL was bailed out in 2014 by the rebirth of Adelaide Oval saving the AFL the indignity of reduced attendances. Next year, despite claims of making it the year of the fan, attendances are set to fall.

A number of high drawing clubs headed by Collingwood could be set for tough seasons, Perth will continue to see attendances fall ahead of a new stadium move and the at-home experience only improves and pushes crowds to their lounge rooms. There is no bailout for the AFL this year, attendances will fall.

4. Mick Malthouse signs a multi-year extension with Carlton

It will be one of the most intriguing sub-plots of the season as whether Carlton commit to Malthouse long term for their next premiership push. I eventually expect Carlton to recognise the reasons why they got Malthouse in the first place and sign him on to lead a true premiership charge in coming seasons.

5. The Coleman Medal winner has no link to Hawthorn or Richmond

Nick Riewoldt, Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and Jay Schulz – all the favourites for the Coleman Medal seem to be linked in one way or another to Richmond or Hawthorn. Some years the Coleman Medal springs a real surprise, and with the likes of Josh Kennedy, Jeremy Cameron, Taylor Walker and Tom Hawkins looming the Coleman will have no ties to Richmond or Hawthorn.

6. Every team wins six games, every team loses six games

Recent AFL seasons have been plagued at the foot of the table with expansion teams focused on youth and once proud clubs in the midst of lengthy rebuilds. However, 2014 saw a turn as all clubs won at least four games and lost at least five games. It would be a big statement for equalisation if the AFL saw all teams win and lose a minimum of six games.



7. Western Bulldogs claim the wooden spoon

Western Bulldogs currently find themselves on the third line of betting behind St Kilda and Melbourne, however a tough off-season and with changes afoot going into 2015 it could be the Bulldogs who claim the unwanted team wooden-ware of 2015.

8. Greater Western Sydney finishes ahead of Gold Coast

Podcast co-host Mike has been big on this one, and slowly Cam has come around. Gold Coast still have more talent, but GWS have the better AFL experience and a team with enough depth to make a challenge towards finals. While Gold Coast are still reliant on few, GWS are set to display an array of ways to win games.

9. The Rising Star winner has already played an AFL game

In the past two seasons a true rookie has claimed the AFL’s number one award for young players. Expect a trend back towards experience winning out over youth in 2015. There are too many good contenders on the field in a weak draft class for the winner not to already have an AFL game under their belt.

10. The 2015-16 free agency period will be underwhelming without a marquee player move

Since the inception of free agency the AFL has been fortunate enough to have either an elite or marquee name that has made a change of clubs. As clubs start to understand free agency better and sign players up before contract seasons, the list of free agents for next year is already underwhelming and will likely be moreso by October.

11. No key position player is picked in the top five of the 2015 national draft

As was the case back in 2012, there are few standout key position prospects going into next season and for that reason the next draft looks like being a year for midfielders and defenders. Run and carry is in vogue and next year’s draft will be headlined at the top by that.

12. Harley Bennell plays less than seven games

It is the buzz around Perth over the 2014-15 off-season. It could be injury, it could be form, it could be a certain AFL code of conduct being breached. Either way Bennell is in for a rough 2015 season.

13. Scoring increases to more than 92 points per team per game

Scoring fell by six points from 92 to 86 points per team per game last year. As the best teams showed though, attacking football is the way of the future. Expect teams to revert back to attacking game plans and scoring is going to see a much needed revival.

14. Robbie Gray finishes top three at the Brownlow

The classic candidate for the ‘year after syndrome’, which sees the umpires rewarding players a year later than their breakout year. Gray was a deserving winner of the Port Adelaide MVP but a notable absentee at the top of the Brownlow count. That changes this year as even with a good season, Gray is set for a top three place. Replicate 2014 and Gray is your 2015 Brownlow Medal winner.



15. Hawthorn three-peat

Last year no-one saw the obvious until it was too late. Hawthorn were dominant across the season yet were still underdogs in the grand final. Not this year. Until proved otherwise they are favourites and will complete the most unlikely and amazing of three-peats.