Iowa Poll: Most approve of job Reynolds is doing, but nearly half want another governor

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Just more than half of Iowans approve of the job Gov. Kim Reynolds is doing, but nearly as many are ready for someone new to hold the governor’s office, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Reynolds will seek election to her first full term as governor in 2018. The former lieutenant governor has held the office since May, when then-Gov. Terry Branstad resigned to become the U.S. ambassador to China.

Fifty-one percent of Iowans say they approve of the job Reynolds is doing, 30 percent disapprove and 19 percent are unsure.

Yet just 35 percent say they would vote for Reynolds if the election were held today, and 49 percent say it's time for someone new. Sixteen percent aren't sure.

She fares far better with Republicans than other Iowans. Poll respondent Bob Beardsley of Bettendorf is among the 72 percent of Republicans who say they would vote for Reynolds if the election were held today.

"She’s spoken at a couple of events I was at — some manufacturing days," said Beardsley, who works for John Deere. "I can’t recall the specifics of what she talked about, but I remember walking away being impressed with her."

Beardsley, 49, said he doesn't follow politics too closely, but he enjoyed former Gov. Terry Branstad's "steady hand" and the plans he had for Iowa. The fact that Branstad groomed Reynolds and handed off the baton to her is a meaningful endorsement, Beardsley said.

"It gives me good confidence in Gov. Reynolds," he said.

But Reynolds' ties to the Branstad administration are exactly why Melissa Cunningham, an independent voter from Spencer, wants somebody new in the governor's office.

"I'm in health care, so I’ve been very disappointed with the (managed care organizations) and the Medicaid decisions that were made and the implications that's had for our community and our patients," said Cunningham, 40, who works in nursing. "So I’m just not interested in continuing under that leadership."

In April 2016, Branstad shifted the state's Medicaid program to private management, a move he said would save the state money and provide better care for its 600,000 poor and disabled participants. Many clients and providers have complained of reduced care and delayed payments.

In addition, Cunningham said, her husband is a state union worker who saw his collective bargaining rights dramatically scaled back under Branstad's tenure during the last legislative session.

"We’re just not a family that, at this point, is a big fan," Cunningham said.

Those who want a new occupant at Terrace Hill include 77 percent of Democrats, 51 percent of independents and 18 percent of Republicans.

Although Reynolds is the state’s first female governor, women are more likely than men to say they prefer someone new in office, 53 percent to 46 percent. And in each congressional district, more Iowans say it's time for someone new than say they'd vote for Reynolds.

J. Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll, described Reynolds' support as solid, but not strong.

In comparison, an Iowa Poll in September 2009 asked respondents whether they would vote for then-Gov. Chet Culver or an alternative. Forty-eight percent said they would definitely vote for an alternative or consider doing so. In November 2010, Culver, a Democrat, lost his re-election bid to Branstad, previously a four-term governor, by nearly 10 percentage points.

The latest poll questioned 802 Iowa adults Dec. 3-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The challengers

Ron Corbett, a former Iowa House speaker and outgoing mayor of Cedar Rapids, is campaigning to run against Reynolds in the June Republican primary.

Corbett has seen his public profile rise in recent months. In a February Iowa Poll, 73 percent of Iowans said they had no opinion of Corbett. That's fallen to 59 percent in this poll.

About a quarter of Iowans — 23 percent — say they have a favorable opinion of Corbett, up from 17 percent in February. Eighteen percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, up from 10 percent.

Reynolds is much better-known. Forty-four percent of Iowans say they have a favorable opinion of her, and 33 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Twenty-three percent are unsure. While the favorable opinion is steady since February, unfavorable opinions are up, from 24 percent in February.

Democrats must narrow a wide field of candidates ahead of the general election.

The Democrats who have announced gubernatorial runs include state senator and attorney Nate Boulton; nurse and labor leader Cathy Glasson; businessman and philanthropist Fred Hubbell; former USDA Foreign Agriculture Service official John Norris; and physician and former Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Andy McGuire.

Among the five Democrats tested, Hubbell enjoys the highest favorable rating, at 27 percent.

"(I like) his empathy for ordinary Iowans in the context of day-to-day circumstances that they are involved with in their lives," said Joel Tonda, a 61-year-old retired schoolteacher from Knoxville who identifies as a moderate Democrat. "... Some of the things that he and his wife have done, especially for Planned Parenthood with their own initiative, I think was a very positive thing for individuals who need those services."

Hubbell is followed closely by McGuire, who is thought of favorably by 26 percent of respondents. Boulton is next with 21 percent. And 18 percent of respondents have favorable opinions of Glasson and Norris.

However, this early in the campaign cycle, more than half of Iowans say they don't know each of the Democratic candidates well enough to have an opinion of them.

"I haven’t heard much about them, to be honest with you," said Kathy Alitz, a 69-year-old Des Moines Democrat who said she likes to stay informed about politics and elections. "I don’t know what their background is. I’d like to find out more of what they’ve done in the past and what their foreseeable benefits to the state would be."

Hubbell is the best known among the Democrats, yet 57 percent of Iowans say they have no opinion of him.

He comes from a wealthy family long prominent in Iowa, and likely entered the race with higher name recognition than many of his competitors. And in October he was the first candidate of any party to air television ads across the state.

Alitz said she's seen those ads and likes the message Hubbell is articulating, particularly around mental health issues.

Among the Democratic candidates tested, Glasson has the highest rate of respondents who are unsure about her, at 70 percent.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted December 3-6 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 802 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 802 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.