Within a year or two, voters in the UK will decide whether to leave the European Union, after the recent general election saw the right wing Conservative party take power. And already the campaign of persuasion has started, both from fans of a departure and from those wishing for the UK to remain united with Europe.

This might not seem terribly relevant to you, either because you’re not from the UK, or even Europe, or because you are but it’s not likely to affect your daily life. But this referendum is important not only because of the obvious changes to Europe’s political map, but for the future course it could set global politics on.

If the UK leaves the EU, UK citizens’ right to live and work in Europe, along with Europeans’ right to live and work in the UK, would go. This is likely to be replaced by some form of visa system, but given plans to restrict the number of migrants that are not highly skilled in areas such as technology, it may lead to a big drop in the number of people coming to the UK to work.

But this is where the knock-on effect begins. Countries that find their citizens restricted from going to other countries to work are likely to do the same, and may widen this to countries with a similar socioeconomic background and average citizen’s skillset. More countries will restrict entry for work, meaning more people will have fewer options for places to work than they have had previously.

Migration meltdown

At this point, it’s worth mentioning the growing resistance to immigration that is occurring in much of the world. Many places are increasing their restrictions on both the numbers and skillsets of those they allow in, and there have been growing efforts to clamp down on illegal migration.

But with climate change causing ever greater damage to some areas of the world – even leaving some island nations with the prospect of not existing within a few decades due to rising sea levels – the number of people needing to migrate to survive is set to grow.

As it does, countries will need to band together to help those in need without causing damaging population surges in key areas. But if the UK, by this point, has left the EU, it will likely continue a policy of highly restricted migration, refusing to lend a hand and putting a greater strain on other countries.

For some nations, this strain may feel too much, and with the UK standing alone and refusing to help as an example, they may decide to do the same. As more people pour into the remaining open-bordered countries, some of them may feel enough is enough, and close their own borders. One by one, nations will close their doors and stem the international movement that has been characteristic of our modern age.

Closed borders, open web

A world with closed borders will not seem as bad because the online world will be so different.

You may not be able to leave your own country without a lengthy visa application, but online, and in time through virtual reality, you can go anywhere and engage in anything.

This open digital world will make closed borders feel far more acceptable, and will allow us to increasingly ignore to issues of our own nations.

We won’t mind as much if our borders close because we spend much of our time in a different world anyway.

But the real world does matter: some of the projects most vital to humanity’s long-term future, such as space travel, rely on international cooperation, and if we begin aggressively strengthening our borders, we will damage international cooperation.

This could have a tremendous impact on both human rights and technological differences, which combined could lead to greater international conflict, expansionism and, given the widespread existence of nukes, significant danger.

Building connections

Around the world, we are at somewhat of a crossroads.

Nations give us identities, but we must also recognise the growing impact of international identity. The web has provided us with communities that have no regard for borders, and we should not forget the importance of those communities when we look to our own countries.

If we want to secure a future that is more stable and able to withstand the coming dangers of climate change, we need to build connections with other nations, not sever them.