Democratic field for Wisconsin governor is still a jumble with no clear front-runner

MADISON - After nine months of campaigning and more than $1 million spent, the crowded Democratic field for governor has done little to clarify the race and nothing to thin it out.

State schools Superintendent Tony Evers remains the best known of the nine notable challengers to GOP Gov. Scott Walker, but since announcing six months ago Evers hasn't picked up decisive momentum or lost a single rival. Meanwhile, jumbled along with him are eight more candidates who are hanging on and telling themselves — for now at least — that they can still be the one.

No one of these candidates has a strong advantage across all of the metrics, such as polling, fundraising, endorsements, social media presence and policy proposals. It's hard to see so far how the field will winnow to even just several candidates by the Aug. 14 primary.

"Spring training for the Democratic candidates for governor is going to be longer than it is for the Milwaukee Brewers," said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist who thinks it could take months to sort out the field.

Wisconsin now has nine notable Democratic gubernatorial candidates looking to consolidate enough support to be ready to take on Walker's well-funded operation in November. The race is the most crowded statewide primary in at least a generation and, unlike many past races, it had yet to see a notable candidate drop out.

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In 2009, for instance, then two-term Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton spent less than three months as a candidate for governor, withdrawing as a higher profile contender, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, edged toward announcing. Not so in 2018, when even the most poorly-funded and least-known candidates have stayed in.

Boosted by his office, Evers led this year's Democratic field in the latest Marquette University Law School poll, has raised the most money from outside donors last year at $312,000 and has snagged endorsements like Lawton and former U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl.

Despite Evers having won three statewide elections for state superintendent, two out of three voters still don't know enough about him to give an opinion on him. He also spent most of the money he raised last year, leaving him with just $115,000 in cash and a potential vulnerability if another candidate can pour in money.

"Campaigns are marathons and not sprints," Evers' campaign manager, Maggie Gau, said. "Tony consistently leads the pack whether you're looking at endorsements, money raised or polling."

But with the next set of campaign fundraising reports not due until July, there are few immediate chokepoints to force out candidates.

Zepecki, the Democratic consultant, thinks that few if any of the Democrats will be able to run television ads in more than two or three media markets or for more than a few weeks at the very end of the campaign.

"It is going to be a three-week campaign because I can't imagine anyone having the resources to get on TV for longer than that," Zepecki said.

State GOP spokesman Alec Zimmerman noted that both Evers and Rep. Dana Wachs (D-Eau Claire) have switched campaign managers.

"The failure of the Democrat candidates to gain traction is evidenced by their anemic fundraising, staff reorganizations and increasingly hostile rhetoric," Zimmerman said.

Here are some of the candidates' advantages and disadvantages:

Longtime Madison Mayor Paul Soglin had the next highest favorable rating in the Marquette poll, with 15% of voters seeing him favorably. But Soglin, who entered the race in January, has yet to demonstrate strong fundraising or a statewide organization.

After Soglin came former state Democratic Party Matt Flynn with 13% of voters seeing him favorably.

Flynn finished last year with the most cash on hand at $305,000, was endorsed by former Gov. Tony Earl and got attention for promising to pardon marijuana offenses that don’t involve violence or drug dealing.

"We spent very little money and we're moving forward with an aggressive campaign and it's paying off," said Bryan Kennedy, Flynn's campaign manager.

But Flynn is also on his fifth run for office — including two for U.S. Senate — and hasn't succeeded so far.

Next in the polling came Sen. Kathleen Vinehout of Alma, who has policy depth and a following with liberal activists but almost no money.

Marquette found 9% of voters surveyed had a favorable impression of liberal activist Mike McCabe. But except for Vinehout, no candidate has less money.

Professional Firefighters of Wisconsin union President Mahlon Mitchell and Wachs, the Assemblyman, came next, both tied at 7% favorability.

Wachs has the most endorsements of sitting state officials, backing from former U.S. Rep. Dave Obey, a base outside Madison and Milwaukee and a broad agenda.

"Dana may not yet be a household name, but he is the kind of leader folks in Wisconsin are asking for to defeat Walker in November," Wachs campaign manager Brita Olsen said.

Wachs raised $515,000 last year — the second-best total of any candidate — but loaned himself half the money and spent most of it, leaving him with $163,200 in cash in December and still only modest recognition from voters.

Mitchell, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2012 recall election for lieutenant governor, is young and the only African-American in the race. He has backing from unions, a social media following and respectable fundraising at $310,000 last year.

"I'm a crossover candidate," Mitchell said. "I can go to the north side of Milwaukee … but I can also go to the farms in Rhinelander."

But most of Mitchell's money came from unions — not individuals — and Walker's campaign Twitter account still has 36 times as many followers as Mitchell's.

Former Rep. Kelda Helen Roys of Madison has only a 4% favorable rating but managed to announce in December and still finish that month with $151,000 in cash. Roys could break through as the youngest candidate at 38 and the only woman in a Democratic primary. She tried to do that last week with a video that showed her breastfeeding her daughter.

Milwaukee businessman Andy Gronik has been in the race since July and is only at 4% favorability despite spending more than $450,000 last year. But as a millionaire, Gronik has too many resources to be counted out.

"This race is wide open and ... people know I’m the only person with the ability to stand toe-to-toe with Governor Scott Walker and tell him his plans for economic development have failed," Gronik said in a statement.