4. Main figures

Table 1 shows percentage changes for both the value and volume of sales in March 2017.

Table 1: Main figures, March 2017 Seasonally adjusted, percentage change Great Britain Most recent month on a year earlier Most recent 3 months on a year earlier Most recent month on previous month Most recent 3 months on previous 3 months Value (amount spent) 5.1 4.8 -1.4 0.0 Volume (quantity bought) 1.7 2.1 -1.8 -1.4 Value (excluding automotive fuel) 4.7 4.1 -1.0 -0.1 Volume (excluding automotive fuel) 2.6 2.9 -1.5 -1.2 Source: Monthly Business Survey – Retail Sales Inquiry, Office for National Statistics Download this table Table 1: Main figures, March 2017 .xls

Whilst there was year-on-year growth in the quantity bought in March 2017, both the monthly and 3 month on 3 month growth rates showed decline. For the 3 month on 3 month volume series, this is the third consecutive period of negative growth.

The 3-month period ending March 2017 coincides with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017 of the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) output estimate. It marks the first negative contribution of retail sales to quarterly GDP growth since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2013, contributing negative 0.08 percentage points (to 2 decimal places).

The amount spent increased by 5.1% compared with the same period last year while there was a fall in monthly growth and a flat 3 month on 3 month series.

Figure 1: Rolling 3 month on month and monthly all retailing, seasonally adjusted sales volumes and implied deflator, non-seasonally adjusted Great Britain, January 2010 to March 2017 Source: Monthly Business Survey - Retail Sales Inquiry - Office for National Statistics Download this chart Figure 1: Rolling 3 month on month and monthly all retailing, seasonally adjusted sales volumes and implied deflator, non-seasonally adjusted Image .csv .xls

The fall in the quantity bought in the 3 months to March 2017 continues the downward trend seen since January 2017. The recent decline coincides with a consistent trend of increases in average store prices, with March 2017 seeing the highest price levels since December 2014. This upward trend is also reflected in the latest UK consumer price inflation publication, reporting recent price increases, particularly in food as well as clothing and footwear.

Figure 2 shows the underlying pattern for the quantity bought, amount spent and average store prices for all retailing as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement.

Figure 2: Rolling 3 month on 3 month, seasonally adjusted sales volumes, values and implied deflator, non-seasonally adjusted Great Britain, January 2010 to March 2017 Source: Monthly Business Survey - Retail Sales Inquiry - Office for National Statistics Download this chart Figure 2: Rolling 3 month on 3 month, seasonally adjusted sales volumes, values and implied deflator, non-seasonally adjusted Image .csv .xls

In the 3 months to March 2017, the quantity bought for all retailing including automotive fuel decreased by 1.4% while the amount spent remained stable. As the amount spent is a combination of the quantity bought and price of goods, if average store prices increase then unless there is a decrease in quantity bought, the amount spent is expected to increase. However, as the amount spent has remained steady, the impact of price increases has been offset by falls in the quantity bought.

Table 2 shows the percentage changes for the 3 month on 3 month volume and value of retail sales in March 2017.

Table 2: 3 month on 3 month growth rate summary, March 2017 Seasonally adjusted, percentage change Great Britain Percentage change Quantity bought (volume) Amount spent (value) 3 month on 3 month 3 month on a year earlier 3 month on 3 month 3 month on a year earlier Predominantly food stores¹ -0.8 0.6 0.4 1.8 Predominantly non-food stores² -1.3 2.1 -0.6 3.2 Non-specialised stores³ -2.4 -1.2 -1.8 -0.2 Textile, clothing and footwear stores 1.9 5.8 2.5 6.5 Household goods stores -3.3 -1.5 -2.6 -0.6 Other stores -2.0 3.4 -1.2 5.1 Non-store retailing -2.3 18.9 -0.5 20.9 Fuel stores -3.1 -4.5 1.5 11.5 Total -1.4 2.1 0.0 4.8 Source: Monthly Business Survey - Retail Sales Inquiry - Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Supermarkets, specialist food stores and sales of alcoholic drinks and tobacco. 2. Non-specialised stores, textiles, clothing and footwear, household goods and other stores. 3. Department stores. Download this table Table 2: 3 month on 3 month growth rate summary, March 2017 .xls

Decreases in quantity bought were seen across all retail sectors except textile, clothing and footwear stores where sales volume increased by 1.9%, thus having the only positive contribution to overall growth. The largest decreases were seen in household goods stores and fuel stores at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Anecdotal evidence from textile, clothing and footwear retailers suggests that increases in internet sales have contributed to growth. When comparing March 2017 with March 2016, internet sales in textile, clothing and footwear stores have increased by 28.1%; the largest year-on-year increase since August 2014.

Looking at the amount spent, increases in food stores, textile, clothing and footwear stores, and fuel stores offset decreases in all other sectors. The largest increases were seen in textile, clothing and footwear stores, whereas household goods stores saw the largest 3 month on 3 month fall.