Leftist rule beckons?

The celebrations on election night by the centre-right coalition have this week grown into a

distant memory, as the Socialists (PS) moved closer towards brokering an agreement with the Left Bloc and the Communist Party to govern the country for the next four years.

Involved in a series of talks with parties to the left and the right the past week, the Socialists have hinted that a leftist government, so long as it guaranteed relative stability, was a viable option.

The current political situation was further shaken when the incumbent Pedro Passos Coelho said he was done “with playing games” and had no further intention of negotiating with the Socialists.

While the immediate political future is unclear, MPs will be taking their seats next Thursday for the first parliamentary session of the new legislative period.

President Cavaco Silva, who is charged with nominating a new government, still seems set to unveil the party with the most votes – the centre-right coalition – as the next government.

With nine seats short of a parliamentary majority, the PSD-CDS coalition will need support from the leftist opposition to govern, and as things stand, this appears extremely unlikely.

In such an event, the opposition, who do hold a majority, are expected to present a motion of no confidence in the government’s programme, inevitably bringing the government down and resulting in early elections, probably in the spring of 2016.

The president can still opt to empower a leftist government for the sake of political stability and to avoid a repeat ballot less than a year after elections.

A second PSD-CDS government is not expected to last the year, while a leftist coalition would enjoy a parliamentary majority and would be able to govern unchallenged.

