Titans vs. Chiefs prediction: Who has the edge in NFL wild-card playoffs?

Who has the edge between the Titans (9-7) and Chiefs (10-6) in the wild-card playoffs on Saturday (3:35 p.m. CT, ABC, ESPN) at Arrowhead Stadium?

Offense - Chiefs

Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith led the NFL with a 104.7 passer rating, throwing for 4,042 yards, 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Running back Kareem Hunt led the NFL with 1,327 rushing yards while scoring eight touchdowns on the ground and three more through the air. Explosive wide receiver Tyreek Hill led the NFL with five touchdowns of 60 yards or longer. Travis Kelce led all NFL tight ends with 83 catches. See a trend? The Chiefs’ offense rates among the most potent in the league in all facets, and it seldom makes mistakes. Its 11 turnovers this season are fewest in the league.

Defense - Titans

The Titans have the fourth-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 88.8 yards per game, and have done a solid job of pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Their 43 sacks are tied for fifth-most in the NFL. Derrick Morgan (7½) leads four players with at least five sacks. The Chiefs rank among the most generous teams in the league in terms of average yards allowed on the ground and through the air. They have the 28th-ranked defense overall.

Special teams - Chiefs

Chiefs rookie kicker Harrison Butker has made 38 of an NFL-high 42 field-goal attempts, despite spending the first three weeks of the season on the Panthers' practice squad. He's hit four of five attempts from 50 yards or longer. The Titans' Ryan Succop has hit 35 of 42 field-goal attempts and is 2-of-5 from long range. Tyreek Hill was named to the Pro Bowl as a return specialist. He has four touchdowns on punt or kick returns since the start of last season. The Titans could see even more of him with Akeem Hunt, the Chiefs’ lead kickoff return man this season, being placed on injured reserve this week with an ankle injury. Titans punter Brett Kern leads the NFL in average and net punt yards.

Coaching - Chiefs

Andy Reid is a three-time NFL Coach of the Year with an 11-12 playoff record as a head coach with the Eagles and Chiefs. He guided Philadelphia to five conference title games and a Super Bowl, and he has led the Chiefs to the playoffs in four of his five seasons in Kansas City. He is 1-3 in the postseason since joining the Chiefs in 2013. This is Mike Mularkey’s first playoff game as a head coach.

Intangibles - Titans

The Chiefs have lost their past five home playoff games, but they’re at home and had an opportunity to rest some starters last week, having already clinched the fourth seed in the playoffs. The Titans have won four of their past five games in Kansas City, including last season’s 19-17 triumph on Dec. 18, 2016, the coldest game in franchise history. The Titans are inexperienced, having last made the playoffs during the 2008 season, but embrace the underdog role. They should be loose and could be poised for an upset.

Predictions

Jason Wolf

Titans 20, Chiefs 19: The Titans will have a chance to pull the upset by keeping it ugly, low-scoring and avoiding mistakes. A big play on defense or special teams helps keep Tennessee in the game, and Marcus Mariota leads another late scoring drive for the Titans’ first playoff victory since defeating the Ravens in Baltimore in the wild-card round in January 2004.

Joe Rexrode

Chiefs 23, Titans 16: The Titans will have a chance here because their defense can limit Kareem Hunt on the ground and get after Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith. They must keep the score down and avoid giving up the big play. But unless their offense plays better than it has in months, that still won't be enough.

Reach Jason Wolf at jwolf@tennessean.com and follow him on Twitter @JasonWolf and on Instagram and Snapchat at TitansBeat. Contact Joe Rexrode at jrexrode@tennessean.com and follow him on Twitter @joerexrode.