Last year, I used machine learning to rank the running backs. The results were mixed: I was right about Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, and Jordan Howard, but wrong about LeSean McCoy, Royce Freeman, and Melvin Gordon. Overall, I was right on 9 predictions, and wrong on 9 predictions, and ranked below average compared with the experts.

I’ve made some improvements for this season: my model isn’t as needlessly complex, and my predictions on everyone’s carries and stats are more realistic. My model still made some bold calls, but I only see one outlandish predictions.

The Rankings:

Sorry for the formatting.

Player Carries Rush Yards Rush TDs Rec Rec Yards Rec TDs Points ADP 1. Saquon Barkley 255 1149 9 76 616 4 251 1 2. Alvin Kamara 191 890 9 81 695 4 235 2 3. Nick Chubb 254 1194 9 43 326 2 219 7 4. Christian McCaffrey 184 907 6 82 681 4 218 3 5. Ezekiel Elliott 237 1058 7 54 428 2 204 5 6. David Johnson 230 937 7 52 490 3 201 4 7. Joe Mixon 246 1104 8 45 337 1 198 10 8. Todd Gurley 200 909 8 47 413 3 197 9 9. Le’Veon Bell 247 1035 7 49 404 2 195 6 10. James Conner 210 923 8 46 392 2 192 8 11. Melvin Gordon 185 858 7 44 370 2 181 14 12. Dalvin Cook 212 951 6 49 376 2 179 11 13. Leonard Fournette 242 966 7 36 290 1 177 13 14. Derrick Henry 227 1037 9 16 123 0 171 21 15. Marlon Mack 217 960 8 27 209 1 169 16 16. Damien Williams 168 755 7 44 352 3 168 12 17. Kerryon Johnson 194 907 6 43 318 2 165 15 18. Aaron Jones 183 869 7 34 261 1 161 17 19. David Montgomery 200 856 6 32 261 1 157 20 20. Devonta Freeman 184 792 6 34 271 1 151 18 21. Josh Jacobs 193 838 5 35 284 1 151 19 22. Chris Carson 200 894 7 23 183 1 151 22 23. Philip Lindsay 176 824 6 33 239 1 147 25 24. Kenyan Drake 142 655 4 48 391 2 145 29 25. Mark Ingram 209 856 6 28 209 1 144 23 26. Lamar Miller 194 846 4 27 210 1 138 27 27. Sony Michel 193 840 7 15 110 0 137 24 28. Tevin Coleman 153 708 5 30 251 2 136 26 29. Latavius Murray 182 726 7 24 171 1 135 32 30. James White 69 314 2 66 558 4 123 31 31. Miles Sanders 156 634 4 31 251 1 122 28 32. Austin Ekeler 108 522 3 39 351 2 120 34 33. Derrius Guice 154 655 5 24 206 1 120 30 34. Rashaad Penny 152 671 4 25 198 1 119 33 35. Tarik Cohen 74 345 3 54 482 3 115 35 36. Royce Freeman 161 652 5 21 156 1 113 38 37. Darrell Henderson 136 579 4 28 227 1 111 37 38. Kalen Ballage 143 610 7 23 188 1 111 45 39. Jordan Howard 161 662 5 15 112 0 110 36 40. LeSean McCoy 155 620 3 31 236 1 109 41

The Rest:

# Player Points ADP 41 Ronald Jones 105 40 42 Carlos Hyde 101 42 43 Alexander Mattison 98 48 44 Jaylen Samuels 95 46 45 Devin Singletary 92 47 46 Peyton Barber 91 43 47 Justin Jackson 91 52 48 Kareem Hunt 91 39 49 Adrian Peterson 91 44 50 Damien Harris 87 50 51 Duke Johnson 87 51 52 Tony Pollard 86 56 53 Nyheim Hines 84 60 54 Matt Breida 83 49 55 D’Onta Foreman 80 59 56 Darwin Thompson 80 55 57 Justice Hill 79 53 58 Mike Davis 78 58 59 Dion Lewis 76 56 60 Ito Smith 74 59 61 Jerick McKinnon 70 54 62 C.J. Anderson 66 61 63 Malcolm Brown 65 62 64 Jalen Richard 57 — 65 Jamaal Williams 54 — 66 Theo Riddick 53 — 67 Giovani Bernard 51 — 68 Frank Gore 46 — 69 Alfred Blue 45 — 70 Gus Edwards 45 — 71 Dontrell Hilliard 45 — 72 Chris Thompson 45 — 73 Wayne Gallman 44 — 74 Ty Montgomery 43 — 75 Chase Edmonds 42 — 76 Mark Walton 39 — 77 Ryquell Armstead 39 — 78 Rod Smith 39 — 79 Benny Snell 38 — 80 Cameron Artis-Payne 37 — 81 Bilal Powell 36 — 82 Qadree Ollison 35 — 83 Dexter Williams 34 — 84 Jordan Scarlett 32 — 85 Alfred Morris 32 — 86 Andre Ellington 30 — 87 Zach Zenner 28 — 88 Doug Martin 27 — 89 Trayveon Williams 26 — 90 Ameer Abdullah 24 — 91 J.D. McKissic 23 — 92 Zach Line 22 — 93 T.J. Logan 17 — 94 David Fluellen 17 — 95\ Josh Ferguson 5 — 96 Darren Sproles -4 —

Bold Picks:

Sleepers and Undervalued:

Nick Chubb: Rank: 3, ADP: 7

Derrick Henry: Rank: 14, ADP: 21

Joe Mixon: Rank: 7, ADP: 10

Melvin Gordon: Rank: 11, ADP: 14

Kenyan Drake: Rank: 24, ADP: 29

Kalen Ballage: Rank: 38, ADP: 45

Nyheim Hines: Rank: 53, ADP: 60

Busts and Overvalued:

Le’Veon Bell: Rank: 9, ADP: 6

David Johnson: Rank: 6, ADP: 4

Damien Williams: Rank: 16, ADP: 12

James Conner: Rank: 10, ADP: 8

Kareem Hunt: Rank: 48, ADP: 39

Jerick MicKinnon: Rank: 61, ADP: 54