Stats say bet on Bruins or Wild to win the Cup As TSN's Frank Seravalli writes, one stat could indicate that you should lay some cash on either the Minnesota Wild or the Boston Bruins to hoist the Stanley Cup.

Frank Seravalli TSN Senior Hockey Reporter Follow|Archive

BROSSARD, Que. — Picking a Stanley Cup winner at the dawn of the playoffs may be one of the most risky gambles in pro sports - whether in Vegas or in a pool with your buddies.

It’s easy to pick the favourite - and the Washington Capitals certainly are this year's consensus pick, according to the TSN Hockey panel.

The problem is that the NHL’s best regular season team, the President’s Trophy winner, has lost twice as often in the first round as it has won the Stanley Cup over the last decade.

But what if there was a way to more accurately predict the 2017 Stanley Cup winner?

If one stat is any indication, lay some cash on either the Minnesota Wild or the Boston Bruins.

Amazingly, the team finishing first or second in score-adjusted Fenwick from March 1 through the end of the regular season has gone on to win the Stanley Cup in seven of the last nine years.



PICKING A WINNER Score-adjusted Fenwick from March 1 through end of regular season Year Champion Fenwick Rank 2016 Penguins 56.56 2nd 2015 Blackhawks 51.83 11th 2014 Kings 59.24 1st 2013 Blackhawks 56.73 2nd 2012 Kings 59.54 1st 2011 Bruins 50.56 13th 2010 Blackhawks 58.63 1st 2009 Penguins 56.03 2nd 2008 Red Wings 60.21 2nd

Fenwick, also known as unblocked shot attempts, is the measure of the percentage of unblocked shots controlled by a team in a game. Adjusting for score helps eliminate sample size variations.

This year, the Bruins - a possession stats juggernaut all season long - finished first and the Wild were just behind Boston in second place.

On one hand, it’s no surprise that a team consistently outshooting the opposition could be successful in the playoffs. The date range helps illustrate which teams enter the postseason on a strong note, and sometimes it’s all about momentum.

On the other hand, no one would suggest one stat could tell the whole story. It’s too simplistic. No silver bullet stat exists in hockey. Mediocre possession numbers can be drowned out by a phenomenal playoff run for a goalie, such as Tim Thomas’ incredible Conn Smythe performance in 2011, when the Bruins finished 13th in the Fenwick race and won the Cup thanks to his ridiculous .940 playoff save percentage.

A whole host of factors come into play during the playoffs, when seemingly every year an ordinary player burst onto the scene to become an unforgettable hero - even if only for two months.

Picking the Cup winner may not even be as complex as Fenwick. Good, old fashioned defence may be the answer. Over the last six playoffs, the team hoisting the Cup finished the regular season ranked first or second in goals against five times - with last year’s Penguins (sixth) being the one exception.

There is no exact science. The unpredictability of the Stanley Cup playoffs is one reason why hockey has the best postseason tournament in pro sports.

It won’t stop us from guessing along the way, either. Here is how this year’s 16 playoff teams finished in score-adjusted Fenwick from March 1 through the end of the regular season:



2017 FANCY STATS FINISH Team Fenwick Rank Wild 54.96 1st Bruins 54.02 2nd Capitals 53.92 3rd Canadiens 53.00 4th Sharks 52.62 5th Oilers 52.26 7th Ducks 51.64 9th Blackhawks 51.30 10th Predators 50.07 13th Blues 49.90 14th Blue Jackets 49.85 15th Leafs 49.72 16th Flames 49.70 17th Senators 49.70 18th Rangers 49.46 19th Penguins 49.07 23rd

Note: Los Angeles (6th), Philadelphia (8th), Winnipeg (11th) and Dallas (12th) all finished in the Top 16 but did not qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs.

All data courtesy of PuckOn.Net. TSN.ca analytics writer Scott Cullen contributed to this report.

Contact Frank Seravalli on Twitter: @frank_seravalli