Hundreds of 2017 NBA mock drafts have been published since the draft order was announced at NBA Draft lottery. Prospects are now landing at the same draft spot in every mock draft, or near that spot.

Markelle Fultz is always the first pick. Players like De’Aaron Fox and Josh Jackson should be drafted in the top five, never lower. Malik Monk on the Sixers makes sense, but the Sixers would be better off if they traded down and drafted him at #5 or lower.

Trends have emerged, and the prospect tiers are forming. Unless you’re the Celtics, the NBA draft player tiers are what you should be paying attention to. Who’s moving up or down the tiers? Who are the five to seven best players that will be available when my team picks? Who should my team take?

Here’s the latest MockOut 2017 NBA mock draft, organized by player tiers.

Tier 1: The legit #1 all-star pick with superstar potential

1. Boston Celtics, Markelle Fultz, G, Washington

Every scout loves Fultz, but they always stop short of calling him a sure-fire Hall of Famer. “He’s a clear cut #1,” they say, “but he’s not an Anthony Davis level prospect. A step or two below.” You know who else was a clear cut #1 pick but a step or two below Anthony Davis? John Wall, Derek Rose, and Kyrie Irving. All dynamic point guards who have been or could be league MVPs. That sounds like an accurate description of Fultz.

I would argue he’s better than all three of those players. If you watch all of his highlights, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be selected to an All-NBA team, multiple times. Fultz is everything you’d want in a modern NBA guard. I’ll admit, the first time I saw him play he looked a step or two slow. He wasn’t explosive. And that’s still true. He’s not super athletic and he doesn’t make plays though speed. But he’s faster than you realize. His ability to change speed and direction so quickly confuses defenders. He’s so dangerous from anywhere on the court that defenders hesitate and don’t make hasty fast motions. They’re afraid to make a mistake. His offensive game is part Harden, part the Matrix. He’s an optical illusion; he slows down time and space, operating in basketball dimensions that we’ve yet to comprehend.

Full disclosure: I’m a Celtics fan. I’m probably biased. Fultz does have flaws, especially defensively. Natural offensive skills, good athleticism, and a 6’11” wingspan doesn’t automatically equate to defensive ability. James Harden has a 7’ wingspan! Fultz could easily become one of those guards that puts up 30 points a game and gives up 30 on the other end.

But any concern about his defensive skills is a small crack in his superstar ceiling. He’s going to be in the Hall of Fame. We all know it, but we won’t allow ourselves to admit it yet. The only proof you need is this interview with Danny Ainge, moments after he learned the Celtics got the first pick. “Luck is on our side,” he says. He knows it’s Fultz. He knows the Celtics just got a legit superstar.

Tier 2: Players who MIGHT be stars but will be no worse than good starters

2. Los Angeles Lakers, Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA

The first fork in the mock draft road. Some say, “OF COURSE THE LAKERS ARE TAKING LONZO!” Others say Lonzo isn’t the best baller available, the Lakers should take Fox or Jackson instead. Even more conspiracy theorists say that Ball and his management team are going to alienate every other NBA team, so let the Lakers trade down to get Ball at #5. That would be the savvy play, but I think the Lakers are set on taking Lonzo.

Still, it’s fun to fantasize about all the draft night drama that would go down if the Lakers pass on Ball. What if he falls to the Kings? Or even to the Knicks? All the Ball hype and weirdness has distracted us from what’s important: he looks like a really special player, and the best player for the young Lakers (and their marketing department).

The next step for the Lakers is to clear cap space for the 2018 NBA free agency season. They’ll be able to sign Boogie Cousins and Paul George. The Lakers could trade Luol Deng’s and Timothy Mozgov’s contracts, and trade D’Angelo Russell to the Brooklyn Nets for Brook Lopez and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

3. Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas

Some experts approach this pick as the last piece to the Sixers’ inevitable championship team. They evaluate the players by who fits best with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. If you agree with that strategy, Jackson is your man. I guess I agree, but with one major caveat: there’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Simmons and Embiid. Drafting based on them alone is risky. Obviously, Embiid is awesome and of course, you should build around him, but he’s always injured. As for Simmons, the jury’s still out on whether he can shoot or if the Sixers can win if they run their offense through him.

Jackson has become this draft’s “middle child,” the prospect that nobody is excited about. He’s an explosive athlete with great feel for the game and he has the ability to guard multiple positions. People doubt that he can shoot the ball consistently even though he spent last season shooting the ball consistently. Five years from now Jackson will be considered one of the great picks from this draft, and the Sixers are lucky he’s available.

4. Phoenix Suns, De’Aaron Fox, PG, University of Kentucky

Like Jackson going to the Sixers, I try not to pick players this high in the draft simply because they “fit” a team’s roster. But the Suns need someone that complements the strengths of their potential superstar, Devin Booker. Fox could control the pace of the game and guard the opponent’s best guard. He’d get the young Suns open shots in transition. With Fox, Booker, Bender, and Chris…the Suns’ future is looking BRIGHT!

5. Sacramento Kings, Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke

Jayson Tatum falls to the team and to the city that need him most. Sacramento is desperate for its next superstar player, and it gets one in Tatum. He’ll be an instant celebrity in downtown Sacramento. The Kings will run the offense through Tatum. He’ll put up 20+ shots a game and get Buddy Hield a lot of open shots. I consider him an early ROY award candidate.

Tier 3: Super talents with super risks

6. Orlando Magic, Jonathan Isaac, PF/C, FSU

Ok…Isaac is not a “super risk.” In fact, he’s the least risky player in the draft. The only risk about him is that the Magic might pass on a riskier pick, and future NBA superstar, for Isaac, a stretch big man who can run the defense of any NBA team. The Magic need a safe pick like Isaac. The franchise is in a fragile state. For five years, they’ve been rebuilding and have two OK assets to show for it: Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. If the Magic WHIFF on this pick, it will take years before their fans recover; they can’t deal with another Hezonja.

Maybe Isaac isn’t the true superstar franchise savior the Magic need. But he’s the franchise building block they deserve. He’ll team up with Gordon to make for one of the league’s blockiest frontcourts. He can hit three pointers, which takes the pressure off Gordon. And it opens up a lot of space for the entire team.

Also, there is a chance that Isaac is a superstar. It’s more likely that’s he a good player who will bring peace to the Magic Kingdom and let the team tank confidently and look towards the 2018 NBA Draft, where they might actually get their superstar franchise player.

7. TRADE: Chicago Bulls, Dennis Smith, PG, NC State

Minnesota Timberwolves trade the seventh pick in the 2017 NBA Draft and Zach Lavine to the Chicago Bulls for Jimmy Butler.

The NBA playoffs have been sobering for the rest of the NBA. It’s a reminder that only GREAT teams win a championship, and most of the teams are far from great. The Bulls and Timberwolves are each headed in different directions. One needs to rebuild, and the other needs to accelerate.

The Timberwolves haven’t been in the playoffs since 2004, and they need to trade for an all-star when the opportunity presents itself. Butler is good enough to push this talented roster to the Western Conference.

Smith is an underrated prospect but needs to control the offense to maximize his value. With LaVine and Smith, the Bulls get a young backcourt as the first step to contending one day… maybe in the 2020s.

8. New York Knicks, Malik Monk, G, University of Kentucky

The range of possibilities for Monk’s career is vast. He could be a shoot-first, no-defense tweener who comes off the bench for a scoring punch. Or he could be a generational scorer that inspires kids everywhere to mimic his game. The Knicks will gladly take Monk to find out. He’s the hope for the future and a player Porzingis can grow and develop with. Together, they have the potential to stretch the floor to places yet unseen in basketball.

Tier 4: Talent drops off but there’s still potential for greatness

9. Dallas Mavericks, Donovan Mitchell, G, Louisville

Mitchell is a classic late draft season tier jumper. He’s been relegated to mid- to low-first round tiers because he doesn’t have the size to be a shooting guard or the passing to be a point guard. But he showed his athletic and physical attributes at the combine, and ever since Mitchell started climbing up the tiers. Dallas gets a solid combo guard that can run the offense in transition and take the pressure off of Harrison Barnes.

10. Sacramento Kings, Frank Ntilikina, G, France

The Kings got the sure-fire star in Tatum and now they need to shoot for the stars. Ntilikina is a three-year project who will need to play a year in the G League, but he’s got the perfect physical build and skills to be the best player in the draft. There’s not that much tape on Ntilikina, though, so a team will need to trust that he can truly be the next Giannis, not the next Dante Exum.

11. Charlotte Hornets, Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga

Collins is the hard-nosed defensive center the Hornets never have. Zeller and Kaminsky get a defensive center who can guard the interior and perimeter and who can hit open shots. He won’t make the all-star team, but he could get the Hornets into the playoffs and shore up their defense.

12. Detroit Pistons, Lauri Markkanen, PF/C, Arizona

Markkanen to the Pistons is my favorite pick in this NBA mock draft because it just makes the most sense. The Pistons are committed to building around Andre Drummond despite his severe offensive flaws. He can’t shoot, especially free throws. On the other hand, Markkanen has severe flaws defensively. He can’t rebound. He’s not fast laterally and can’t defend the interior. These guys COMPLETE each other and give the Pistons hope.

13. Denver Nuggets, OG Anunoby, F, Indiana

The Nuggets are GOING for it. They’re not fooling around with any safe pick like Justin Jackson or Jarrett Allen. Anunoby is an elite defender with a freakishly long wingspan and speed who can switch on any position to help solidify Denver’s defense.

Tier 5: Role players with upside

14. Miami Heat, Luke Kennard, SG, Duke

Kennard is destined for Sixth Man of the Year greatness. Or he might be China’s best player ever. He has great command of the floor, and his excellent footwork and shooting ability make it impossible to guard him. Well…it might not be that impossible for NBA players to guard him if they’re much faster than him. His athletic disadvantages hold him back from being a top 10 player. But the Heat will take a chance on Kennard in the hopes that he truly is this generation’s JJ Redick.

15. Portland Trail Blazers, Justin Patton, C, Creighton

This is the draft tier that has an inordinate amount of power forwards and centers available, and Portland is ALL in. Patton is a classic project. He’s long, raw, and a G League season or two away from seeing substantial minutes in the NBA.

16. TRADE: Portland Trail Blazers, Harry Giles, PF, Duke

Portland Trail Blazers trade the 20th and 26th picks in the 2017 NBA Draft to the Chicago Bulls for the 16th pick.

The Trailblazers are in a gambling mood, and they’re ready to place a bet on a player who might be the draft’s best big man. There’s already been rumors that teams are considering taking Giles in the lottery, which suggests they’re optimistic that he can recover from the torn ACLs. If there is any hope that he can, then Giles won’t last past the middle part of the draft, and Portland knows it must trade up to land him.

17. Milwaukee Bucks, Bam Adebayo, PF/C, Kentucky

Scouts are down on Bam. He relies on power and his athleticism to make plays but doesn’t have a strong basketball IQ or skills to play at a high level. Scouts had the same concerns about DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond. Bam is a special athlete. He’s not just big and fast, he’s fluid and moves with ease. Teams might not be able to play him in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, but in a few years, he could be a vital piece on the Bucks bench.

18. Indiana Pacers, Justin Jackson, F, UNC

I don’t want to bum out Pacer fans, but it’s likely Jackson will be taking a lot of Paul George’s minutes, either at the beginning of the season or immediately after the trade deadline. He’s got enough skills to have a long NBA career, but his average athleticism and frame will likely keep him as a role player who comes off the bench.

19. Atlanta Hawks, TJ Leaf, PF/C, UCLA

The Hawks luck out. They get a better version of Kelly Olynyk. He can shoot, pass, and has shown the ability to be a positional defender. He’s one of the reasons Ball looked so good during the season — because TJ can finish the play.

Tier 6: It’s a free-for-all! Grab the best talent you can find.

20. Chicago Bulls, Ike Anigbogu, PF/C, UCLA

Big Ike needs a good PG to succeed in the NBA. The guy’s entire offensive game is predicated on the lob. But watch what he does when he’s near the rim. It’s fast, harsh, and violent. In the modern NBA, where very few centers exist, players like Ike will have nights where they dominate the glass and make it impossible to score in the paint.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder, John Collins, PF/C, Wake Forest

Poor John Collins. If this was 1998 he’d be a top ten pick simply because of all his low post moves. Just like Enes Kanter. But can rebound and has pick and roll skills that will work great in today’s NBA.

22. Brooklyn Nets, Jarrett Allen, PF/C, Texas

Allen is going to be a considered a draft steal if he falls this far. The Nets will have to take him. But the reason he falls is because of his heart. He might not love basketball, which is the easiest way to not playing basketball for a living. But if Allen can find the love of the game, and continue to develop his shooting, then he’ll be starting on the Nets for the next ten years.

23. Toronto Raptors, DJ Wilson, PF, Michigan State

Wilson has some of the best physical attributes in the draft. The knock on Wilson is that he doesn’t have the size or frame to play down low. But he has the shooting stroke and length to be a 3 and D type player.

24. Utah Jazz, Terrance Ferguson, SG, USA

Terrence is one of the younger prospects in the draft and would benefit from playing in Australia one more year. He’s a great athlete but not a basketball player — yet. He needs a lot more reps, and his shooting mechanics need major corrective surgery.

25. Orlando Magic, Jonathan Jeanne, C, France

A lot of teams regret not taking a chance on Rudy Gobert. Jeanne has a 7’ 7” wingspan and good shooting potential. This is when the Magic take the risk for the underrated talent.

26. Chicago Bulls, Jordan Bell, PF/C, Oregon

The major knock on Bell is his age and his height. But he’s got major hops and a lot of energy and will fill in the void that was created after Taj Gibson left Chicago.

27. Brooklyn Nets, Jawun Evans, PG, Oklahoma State

Evans is way better than a bottom-of-the-first prospect but he’s short and his shot isn’t perfect. But he’s a natural playmaker and one of the fastest players in the draft. He’s got the skills to run an NBA offense, and Brooklyn is one of the best places for him to prove it.

28. LA Lakers, Ivan Rabb, PF/C, California

Lots of people say tRabb made a mistake staying in school. But getting drafted at the end of the first round might be the best thing for Rabb’s career. There’s less pressure. He’s a backup, a good backup, who will give the Lakers 15 to 20 minutes of solid rebounding and scoring from the post.

29. San Antonio Spurs, Tyler Lydon, F, Syracuse

This draft has an abundance of players like Lydon: big men with great offensive skills but without the athletic ability to defend. He has an all-around offensive game and will fit in perfectly on the Spurs. You know they’ll find a way to get the most out of him.

30. Utah Jazz, Rodions Kurucs, F, Latvia

Kurucs has a lot of natural ability and a surprisingly good shot but he needs to play a year or two of Non-NBA professional basketball before he’s ready to contribute on an NBA level.

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You can track changes to my mock draft, as well as other mock drafts from around the web at these NBA Mock Draft Databases: