Below are the only 8 races you really need to watch (along with their poll closing times), with each of them saying something bigger -- and possibly conclusive -- about the larger contest. Consider this your cheat sheet to following the election results without following all the election results.

AD

1) Florida (7 and 8 p.m. Eastern time)

Florida and Ohio are usually considered bellwether states -- indicative of who is going to win the presidential race. But things this year are a little different.

AD

Rather than signifying who will win, we consider Florida and Ohio to be "threshold" states for Trump. In other words, they are necessary but not sufficient; given his struggles in other swing states, he needs to win them in order to have a shot.

We're highlighting Florida here because it looks like Trump is favored in Ohio. Florida, by contrast, has polled as arguably the most competitive state in the country all year. And without its all-important 29 electoral votes, Trump's path to victory is basically non-existent.

AD

Clinton led Florida for almost the entire month of October -- and Democrats feel very, very good about the fact that the Latino early vote appears to have nearly doubled from four years ago -- but recent polls are basically neck and neck.

2) North Carolina (7:30 p.m.)

North Carolina is the next state that will give us a very good indication of whether Trump has a shot.

AD

While we're not quite considering it a threshold state for Trump -- he could feasibly win without it -- his path becomes much, much more difficult if this swing state's 15 electoral votes go to Clinton.

At that point, Trump would basically need to win Pennsylvania or sweep every available competitive state on the map, including New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and a tough state like Colorado, Michigan or Wisconsin. Given that Trump is the underdog in most of those states, that would be pretty unlikely.

AD

And even if he won almost all of those states, without North Carolina they still might not be enough get him to 270.

3) Pennsylvania (8 p.m.)

As mentioned above, Pennsylvania becomes basically a must-win if Trump loses North Carolina. But even more than that, his ability to win here would be a very good sign for his prospects.

This state has been the most competitive of the blue-leaning Rust Belt and Midwestern states that Trump has sought to put into play with his unique appeal to white working-class voters. And if he wins here, that could portend good things to come in Iowa, Wisconsin and possibly even Michigan, which came on the board late.

AD

In addition, adding Pennsylvania to necessary Trump wins in Florida and Ohio gets him -- assuming he wins all the red states on the map, to 257 votes. And if he adds North Carolina to that calculus, he's the president.

AD

So, to sum up the above, if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he's probably president. If he wins three of them, he's got a fighting chance.

4) Michigan (8 p.m.)

If Pennsylvania is an indicator of what could be a good Trump night, Michigan would signal a likely Trump victory.

This state has come on to the map late, and the polls are actually surprisingly close. The last five quality polls all show between a 3- and 5-point lead for Clinton. Michigan also happens to be a state without early voting, which means Clinton hasn't stored up a big advantage by getting heavily Democratic constituencies like African Americans to the polls before Election Day.

AD

AD

It still appears unlikely Trump will pull the upset here -- and God knows Republicans have tried before -- but if he does, watch out.

5) Indiana Senate race (6 and 7 p.m.)

Polls close first here Tuesday night, which is why it's first on our list of Senate races.

Former senator Evan Bayh (D) was a big early leader in the polls, but his campaign has been a series of setbacks and questions about his residency and lobbying work.

Rep. Todd Young (R) would put Republicans on a good path if he can hold off Bayh in this red state early on; if he loses, the GOP's Senate majority is in pretty rough shape.

That's because Democrats are very likely to pick off GOP incumbents in Illinois (Sen. Mark Kirk) and Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson) and seem to have a good shot at defeating Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania.

AD

AD

If Young goes down early in Indiana, that likely means at least four Democratic takeovers, and a blue Senate majority. (For what it's worth, hey would need five seats if Trump wins the presidency.)

6) New Hampshire Senate race (7 p.m./8 p.m.)

This has been among the most expensive, high-profile Senate races of the cycle, with an incumbent female senator, Kelly Ayotte (R), facing an incumbent female governor, Maggie Hassan (D). And Ayotte has stood tough, leading in slightly more polls than Hassan.

As with Young, though, if Ayotte can't survive in New Hampshire early on election night, that's bad news bears for the rest of the GOP map. As we wrote in our Senate race preview, they need to win most of these toss-up races.

7) North Carolina Senate race (7:30 p.m.)

AD

It's a two-fer in North Carolina on this list. In the Senate race, incumbent Richard Burr is trying to hold off Democratic former ACLU lawyer Deborah Ross.

AD

Signs here are a little better for the GOP in some other key races -- with Burr holding a slight lead in most late polls -- but as with New Hampshire and Indiana, if they lose it early on election night, they've probably lost the majority.

If they win, however, they've got a fighter's chance. And if they win Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina early on election night, the GOP majority will be looking pretty safe -- not completely, but pretty.

8) Indiana's 9th district (6 p.m.)

As we wrote Friday, the House is very likely to stay in GOP hands. But for an early indication of whether Democrats are going to take a big bite out of the GOP's majority (and maybe even have an outside shot at the majority), keep an eye on Indiana-9.

AD

In this race, wealthy businessman Trey Hollingsworth is trying to hold off former Miss Indiana Shelli Yoder, now a professor at Indiana University. Yoder has been outspent, and is running in a district Mitt Romney carried by 16 points in 2012.

AD

Democrats need to pick off a number of districts that lean this conservative in order to take the House, but even if they can just keep it close here, that would suggests they'll have a pretty good chance at winning most of the toss-ups on our list -- perhaps as many as 20 seats. (They need 30 for the majority.)