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IS IT STILL IN PLACE?

The first phase of the Protocol ended in 2012. As Prof. Brunnée puts it, the Protocol “is sort of on life support.” So far, only 23 countries have ratified the Doha Amendment and this commitment period applies to only 15% of global emissions of greenhouse gases. Japan, Russia, Ukraine, New Zealand, the U.S. and Canada are not participating in the Doha Amendment in any capacity. In fact, the only countries that actually are legally bound to their climate-change commitments under the Doha Amendment are Norway — which produced 0.07% of global carbon-dioxide emissions in 2012 — and Monaco, one of the lowest emitters in the world.

WHAT’S NEXT?

In 2011, at a conference held in Durban, South Africa, countries agreed to establish a truly global, legally binding deal that is expected to be signed at the end of this year in Paris. The deal would take effect in 2020 but it is unclear how long it would run beyond that. “The real thing we are looking for in Paris is an agreement that will really be global. It will have commitments from all major emitters,” said Prof. Brunnée. Meanwhile, China and the U.S. have struck a climate deal of their own. In 2014, both countries announced a joint treaty that would see the U.S. cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025, and see China increase its non-fossil fuel share of all energy to around 20% by 2030. Whether Canada will be involved in future deals is up in the air. “So long as our emissions keep going up, whatever we do reaching backwards is going to be hard to meet,” said Prof. Brunnée.

National Post