200k Floridians have voted – Trump-trolling vice mayor ‘badonkadonk’ – Did conservative group self-sting? – The truth about write-in candidates – Florida Man in Jeopardy Presented by Facebook

By Marc Caputo ([email protected]; @MarcACaputo) with Bianca Padró Ocasio ([email protected]; @BiancaJoanie) and the staff of POLITICO Florida

Good Friday morning. Voters are voting. As of yesterday morning, about 200,000 Floridians have already cast absentee ballots -- 42.5% by Republicans and 39.5% by Democrats. That’s a 3-point margin. Compared to this point relative to Election Day in 2012 (26 days out), Republicans led Democrats by a 3.3-point margin (43.8 to 40.5%) of the nearly 150,000 ballots that had been cast then. So the stats now are slightly better news for Hillary Clinton if the margins hold (or decrease) for 10 days until Oct. 24, the start of the first wave of in-person early voting, which Democrats tend to dominate (Republicans typically hold a slightly larger edge in absentee voting).


ABSENTEEISM -- In Tallahassee, the same federal judge who extended Florida’s voter registration deadline until Tuesday holds a hearing today in a Florida Democratic Party lawsuit to stop election officials from outright canceling the vote of those who cast absentee ballots if the signature on the mailed-in envelope does not match the one on file. Democrats say voters should get a chance to verify their signature.

TRAIL MIX -- Donald Trump’s running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, is in Pensacola for a rally this afternoon and then headlines a Miami-Dade GOP speech tonight. Hillary Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, holds voter-registration rallies in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties on Saturday and Sunday. Actress Eva Longoria Bastón headlines Orlando Clinton events today to talk voter registration, etc. Speaking of voter registration…

SELF-STING -- “Conservative group may have broken Fla. law in secret recording of Clinton campaign voter-registration shenanigans,” by POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo: The video was shot recently by a Project Veritas mole who infiltrated the Clinton campaign’s Palm Beach County operation run by the Florida Democratic Party, which denies wrongdoing and says its staffers were surreptitiously recorded without their permission or knowledge, which is a violation of Florida law. The video rocketed through conservative media after it was released yesterday and led to protesters outside the campaign’s office in the county, where Donald Trump spoke earlier today and owns the Mar-a-Lago resort. While Trump backers say the video shows how the election will be “rigged,” there’s no evidence that Clinton’s campaign broke the law – unlike Project Veritas.

The title of the video -- “HIDDEN CAM: Clinton Staffer Says I Could ‘Grab [Her] Ass’ and Not Get Fired” -- tacitly acknowledges the Democrats were not informed of the recording. The video draws the most attention, initially, to a Clinton staffer named Wylie Mao, who was recorded making his comments in a restaurant with other Clinton staffers. http://politi.co/2dg2yEK

NUMBERS DON’T LIE, BUT… Remember when the GOP said it had this great ground game in Florida? Yeah. The Florida Dems are beating the GOP in voter-registration forms submitted by 503,000 to 60,000.

‘BADONKADONK’ -- “South Miami Vice Mayor Blasts Trump’s ‘Grab ‘Em by the Puss,’” Audio Outside His Rallies,” by Miami New Times’ Jerry Iannelli: “South Miami Vice Mayor Bob Welsh does not know what the word ‘badonkadonk’ means. Reached on his cell phone today, Welsh insisted the slang term — which references a woman’s large rear end — was actually a reference to the, ahem, frontal part of a lady’s nether region. ‘Badonkadonk is southern for vajayjay,’ Welsh, a sitting politician, explained. ‘You know that song, ‘Honky Tonk Badonkadonk?’” With that context in hand, Welsh's hilarious hijinks at this week’s Florida Trump rallies make a bit more sense. Welsh, long known as among the more entertaining and occasionally offensive politicians in Miami, has driven his tiny Toyota Yaris across Florida this week, chasing Trump to rallies in Lakeland and West Palm Beach. He’s carrying a host of signs, the largest of which reads, ‘Seducing a married woman and grabbin’ badonkadonks don't make us great!’” http://bit.ly/2e0qSNo

FLORIDA MAN -- “Trump against the world,” by POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger: Speaking in messianic terms, Donald Trump painted himself as the target of a vast “conspiracy” and the last hope for a civilization at a crossroads at a rally in West Palm Beach on Thursday. The Republican nominee, besieged by mounting allegations of sexual misconduct as his electoral path all but vanishes, is going to new rhetorical extremes to cast himself as the standard-bearer of an existential struggle against a corrupt, global elite. http://politi.co/2dXwngK

LESS SICK THAN SAID -- “PALM BEACH INSIDERS — James Patterson Pens Book On Perv Jeffrey Epstein!,” by Gossip Extra’s staff: “Mega-selling Palm Beach thriller novelist James Patterson could have landed yet more political punches on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with today’s publication of a rare true-crime non-fiction book. But Filthy Rich, where the creator of the Alex Cross series takes on the real-life saga of the Palm Beach millionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, couldn’t deliver evidence that Trump and Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, partook in Epstein salacious sex games with often-troubled teenage girls from the poorer parts of West Palm Beach. ‘We found nothing to connect Trump and Clinton to what Epstein did with young girls,’ said Tim Malloy, a former reporter and anchor at WPTV-Channel 5 in West Palm Beach who co-authored the tome with Patterson and Vanity Fair investigative reporter John Connolly. ‘Both Bill Clinton and Donald Trump know Epstein and may be friends with him. But that appears to be the extent of it.’” http://bit.ly/2dNRxNH

MIAMI ALERT -- “Where Do Clinton And Trump Have The Most Upside?” by FiveThirtyEight’s David Wasserman, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Ritchie King: “For Democrats, the two most strategically crucial pro-Clinton shifts could come in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and Wake County, North Carolina. Both could play big roles in offsetting losses elsewhere in those states and effectively put Trump away. In Miami-Dade alone, Clinton could pick up enough Cuban and other Latino defectors from the GOP to double Obama’s 74,346-vote statewide margin from 2012.” http://53eig.ht/2e0A5VU

-- “Cuban-exile brigade makes first-ever presidential endorsement -- for Trump,” by Miami Herald’s Patricia Mazzei: http://bit.ly/2e9GzWl

STILL TOUGH -- “Recession still has Floridians reeling and anxious about election,” by Miami Herald’s Mary Ellen Klas: http://hrld.us/2dNwWKA

NOT SO SURE ABOUT THIS -- “Rubio, Murphy outcome hinges on presidential race,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s staff: This piece is unbylined and it seems to ignore the fact that, right now, the top of the ticket isn’t dictating the frontrunner right now. That is, Clinton and Rubio are leading. http://on.tdo.com/2dX1Ak4

-- “Billboard truck taunts Rubio as he keeps distance from Trump in Palm Beach County,” by Palm Beach Post’s John Kennedy: http://pbpo.st/2elKzTj

THE OTHER MURPHY -- “Election Update: Stephanie Murphy Leads John Mica in FL D-7,” by Daily Kos’ AHKarandikar: “Stephanie Murphy is the opponent for 23-year incumbent John Mica, leading him 45 percent to 43 percent in the race for the Seventh Congressional District seat (this is in the margin of error).” http://bit.ly/2dNZuTa

WHO’S BRIAN MAST? – FL-18 GOP candidate Brian Mast is out with a powerful new campaign ad, narrated by a fellow former soldier who said he owes his life to Mast. It’s here: http://bit.ly/2dAEvBl

SPACE IS FOR PUSSIES -- “Adorable kitten alert: Florida’s cutest astronaut wants Keith Perry in the Senate,” by Miami Herald’s Michael Auslen: “You know the expression ‘When pigs fly’? Well how about cats in space? In a Central Florida state Senate district, Republicans are using an astro-kitten to make the case against Rod Smith, a former Democratic senator from Gainesville hoping for a comeback in one of the state's biggest tossups. 'Career politician Rod Smith: Less believable than a cat astronaut,' says the ad, which we found on the Miami Herald's website. It was paid for by the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, which backs state Rep. Keith Perry, R-Gainesville. The race is a near-tossup with blue-leaning Gainesville and the University of Florida, as well as conservative rural Central Florida and Ocala in the district. Both parties have made it a priority. We may not know who will win on Nov. 8, but we do know one thing: Believable or not, that kitten in a space suit is very cute.” http://bit.ly/2dWPFmk

ORANGE IN THE BLACK? -- “USDA orange crop estimate of 70 million boxes higher than early prediction,” by The Ledger’s Kevin Bouffard: “In the tumultuous Florida citrus industry, growers Wednesday greeted a 14-percent drop in the projected orange crop in the new 2016-17 season with smiles. In the tumultuous Florida citrus industry, growers Wednesday greeted a 14-percent drop in the projected orange crop in the new 2016-17 season with smiles. That’s because many growers feared the new season’s orange crop could have fallen even further than the 70 million orange boxes estimated in the initial U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast.That’s because many growers feared the new season’s orange crop could have fallen even further than the 70 million orange boxes estimated in the initial U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast. In August, citrus consultant Elizabeth Steger forecast Florida growers would pick just 60.5 million boxes in the new harvest that began this month. Earlier, the Florida Department of Citrus in Bartow predicted 58.1 million orange boxes for its 2016-17 budget.” http://bit.ly/2e0y6AT

COOLER ANALYSIS-- “Did climate change strengthen Matthew? Not that simple, scientists say,” by Palm Beach Post’s Kimberly Miller: “Hurricane Matthew’s rapid intensification and storm-surge damage were blamed on climate change by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore during a Tuesday campaign stop in Miami. The reference to Matthew’s scary swipe at South Florida’s coastline and nod to sea-level rise exacerbating the annual king tides flooding coastal streets this week resonated with supporters at Miami Dade College. But scientists said drawing a direct link between a warming planet and complex weather systems such as hurricanes is oversimplifying an atmospheric process that still isn’t fully understood. And while seas are swelling, how much of a difference it made in Matthew’s storm surge is probably negligible to the surge that would have occurred 50 years ago.” http://bit.ly/2e0tivE

RISING TIDE -- “The king tide is high, but South Florida is holding on,” by Miami Herald’s Joey Flechas: http://hrld.us/2edE29C

LAKE O -- “Lake levels falling in wake of Hurricane Matthew,” by News-Press’ Chad Gillis: “Water managers are cutting some of the flows to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie rivers this week. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened all the flood gates in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Matthew. The agency said Thursday that Lake Okeechobee is again below 16 feet above sea level.” http://newspr.es/2elGxKP

-- “Lake Okeechobee discharges into St. Lucie River will decrease Friday,” by TCPalm’s Tyler Treadway: http://bit.ly/2ex202q

RECOVERY -- “Slowly, life returns to normal - but not for all in Volusia, Flagler counties,” by The Daytona Beach News-Journal’s Dustin Wyatt: “School buses moving slowly along debris-lined roadways symbolized a return to normal for many Wednesday, but some still can't put Hurricane Matthew and its unprecedented destruction in their rear-view mirrors. The storm's effects linger for many nearly a week later. More than 6,532 residents are still without power and roughly 9,677 homes are damaged, including 69 destroyed. Overall, including businesses, total damage stood at $562 million Wednesday night. In Flagler County, where damages reached $72 million, FEMA officials surveyed damage in some of the most impacted areas for possible federal aid, and hurricane assistance centers opened for residents to fill out paperwork and seek help. In Volusia County, where estimates of $490 million are a record, FEMA tours have yet to begin, but officials and volunteer groups are working to ensure that needs are met, from providing temporary fixes to leaky roofs to providing food, water and shelter.” http://bit.ly/2dQCjv0

-- “Slowly, life returns to normal - but not for all in Volusia, Flagler counties,” by The Daytona Beach News-Journal’s Dustin Wyatt: http://bit.ly/2dQCjv0

-- “Officials look to rebuild Flagler County section of A1A washed out by Hurricane Matthew,” by AP’s staff: http://bit.ly/2dzYErz

WRITE OFF -- “Write-in votes often a wasted effort,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s James Call: “Think the presidential candidates are a bunch of clowns so you may as well as vote for Bozo? Go ahead, write in Bozo T. Clown on your ballot in the slot for a presidential candidate. But don’t expect anyone to count it. In the aftermath of a civil war within the GOP ignited by Donald Trump’s sexual remarks about women, some disgruntled Republicans have suggested they will write in Indiana Gov. Mike Pence or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as their presidential vote. Doing so in Florida would mean you voted for no one. ‘Here’s the deal,’ said Leon County Elections Supervisor Ion Sancho. ‘We only count ballots for qualified candidates. If the candidate is not on the list of qualified candidates then we don’t count it. We don’t acknowledge it. It is void. It is the same thing as not voting.’” http://on.tdo.com/2dfGqdE

‘WILD WEST HOGS’ -- “Man charged with kidnapping Florida girl waives extradition,” by AP’s staff: “A man charged with kidnapping a 4-year-old girl from her Florida home and driving her to Tennessee has waived extradition and will return to Florida without putting up a legal fight. During a court hearing Wednesday in Memphis, West Wild Hogs agreed to be returned to Florida to face the kidnapping charge. http://apne.ws/2e26Gdb

MODERATE MONEY -- “Curbelo gets support from super PAC backing moderate Republicans,” by POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon: A super PAC set up to defend moderate Republicans is spending $80,000 to help Miami Rep. Carlos Curbelo turn out the vote. The group, Defending Main Street, spent the money with Las Vegas-based Advanced Micro Targeting, a company that uses data to help with voter contact and turnout. Defending Main Street’s top donor is California-based tech entrepreneur Sean Parker, who has given $400,000. The group also received large amounts of funding from union-funded super PACs including Working for Working Americans ($500,000) and Luna Building America ($250,000). http://politico.pro/2edsXVW

DENIAL – “House candidate James denies sexual assault allegation,” by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon: Sarasota House candidate Edward James, a Democrat, is denying sexual assault allegations made against him by a college student, according to the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. http://politi.co/2dAppvH

GATORS! -- “Gators among us,” by TCPalm’s Patrick Riley: “This year, more than 6,000 hunters received the coveted permits from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, which oversees the annual public hunt. More than twice as many people applied through the agency’s lottery system. Each permit, which costs residents $272 and out-of-state applicants $1,022, allows a hunter two alligator kills per season. Last year’s harvest of more than 6,700 alligators is less than 1 percent of the estimated 1.3 million alligators roaming the state. The reptile has been hailed as a conservation success story. ... The public hunt — which runs from Aug. 15 through Nov. 1 — has become a boon for the state, generating about $1.5 million in annual revenue.” http://bit.ly/2ebJV5J

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN …

-- “Five men overdose in Boynton in one night; the most the city’s seen,” by Palm Beach Post’s Alexandra Seltzer: http://bit.ly/2e5fz5M

-- “Southwest announces launch dates for first Cuba routes from Fort Lauderdale,” by Sun Sentinel’s Arlene Satchell: http://bit.ly/2e99mtT

-- “‘Hey ISIS, you suck' billboard rises in South Florida,” by Local 10 News’ staff: http://bit.ly/2davEuf

-- “NCQA: Florida has among best, worst Medicaid HMOs,” by POLITICO Florida’s Christine Sexton: http://politico.pro/2dQxFgK

-- “Four more ‘creepy clowns’ reported in Palm Bay,” by Florida Today’s J.D. Gallop and Chris Bonanno: http://on.flatoday.com/2dQHpaF

-- “Ormond police looking for carjacking suspect baffled by car's push-button ignition,” by The Daytona Beach News-Journal’s Katie Kustura: http://bit.ly/2dnMbt6

MILLENNIAL MAN -- “Deputies: Palm Coast man assaults grandma over video game,” by The Daytona Beach News-Journal’s Matt Bruce: “A Palm Coast man is accused of pushing his 85-year-old grandmother to the ground, causing her to break her wrist, after she unplugged the video game system he was playing with Wednesday night, according to a Flagler County Sheriff's Office report.” http://bit.ly/2dWPzv0

BEAR IT OUT -- “College-bound bear? Authorities capture bear near FSU campus,” by AP’s staff: “Wildlife officials have tranquilized a black bear that wandered close to the campus of Florida State University. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission said in a release that authorities removed the bear Wednesday morning. It will be relocated to a different area. The release stated that there was ‘no reason to believe’ that there are any other bears nearby. Wildlife officials found the bear about three blocks west of FSU and the school's football stadium. The bear was also close to a Cuban restaurant. The agency's spokeswoman Susan Smith said bear was likely looking for food. She says bears usually consume 20,000 calories a day in the fall to prepare for winter hibernation.” http://apne.ws/2dnIkfE

WHAT IS FLORIDA MAN? -- “Florida Man leaves ‘em laughing on ‘Jeopardy!’,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Hal Boedeker: “We’re not only the Sunshine State. We’re the Joke State and the Laughter State. Take heart, Floridians: No one calls us the Boring State. Latest proof: 'Jeopardy!' debuted Florida Man as a category on Wednesday's show. Sample: ‘Florida Man steals this Ultimate Driving Machine after he’s told he can't buy it with food stamps.’ Response: What is BMW? Host Alex Trebek and the contestants laughed through the category. If you're conflicted about the mockery, humorist Dave Barry offers this advice about Florida freakiness: ‘Definitely, embrace it. And keep telling yourself: ‘Yes, it’s insane here. But it’s also warm in January.’” http://bit.ly/2dzVdAX

FOR MORE political and policy news, check out Politico Florida’s home page: http://politi.co/1jkJUyL. And please follow our staff @mdixon55, @sbustosFL, @christinesexton, @dducassi, @jessicabakeman and @bruceritchie on Twitter.

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