Gameweek 31 showed just how important choosing the right captain can be, as Harry Kane’s 32 point armband display – courtesy of 2 goals, an assist and maximum bonus – dwarfed any other returns from our recommended squad. At the back, clean sheets for Lukasz Fabianski (6), Ashley Williams (8) and Toby Alderweireld (6) helped contribute to a 71 point haul, 15 higher than the average score for the gameweek. Read on as we continue to analyse the attacking and defensive odds offered to us by the bookies in an attempt to help you with those all-important transfer and captaincy decisions…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Arsenal 52% Chelsea 2.05 49% Sunderland 2.4 42% Stoke 41% Leicester 39% Man Utd 2.6 38% West Ham 38% Man City 2.8 36% Norwich 35% Liverpool 31% Tottenham 3.3 30% Swansea 3.5 29% West Brom 3.5 29% Southampton 28% Newcastle 3.75 27% Everton 4.1 24% Crystal Palace 4.33 23% Bournemouth 4.75 21% Aston Villa 5.75 17% Watford 9 11%

An Emirates clash with Watford sees Arsenal top the bookies’ defensive rankings for Gameweek 32 with a 52% implied chance of keeping a clean sheet. The Gunners have only conceded 10 goals in 14 home games in the league this term and, although just 6 of those have resulted in shutouts, they’ll be confident of keeping the Hornets at bay given the visitors have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 road trips, especially if the commanding Petr Cech makes his return from injury between the goalposts. However, it should be noted that this exact fixture was played out just over 2 weeks ago in the FA Cup, when Watford recorded a shock 2-1 win over their more glamorous North London counterparts. Still, marauding right-back Hector Bellerin has notched 3 assists and 6 bonus points in his last 2 outings and makes our squad, along with budget teammate Gabriel, who has started 6 of the last 7.

Chelsea (49%) make it a London top 2 this week as they travel to Aston Villa in Saturday’s early kick off. Having scored just twice in their last 6 outings, losing all 6, things don’t look good for the Midlands outfit as they career towards the Championship. The Villains possess a limited goal threat, having scored fewer goals than any other club this season, both at home (11 in 15) and overall (22 in 31). The game offers the Blues, who have the 7th best away defence in the league this campaign (17 conceded in 14), the perfect chance to get back to the defensive solidity we usually associate with them, having not kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches. Thibaut Courtois and Cesar Azpilicueta offer security of starts at a decent budget and make the cut for our recommended XV in Gameweek 32.

Sunderland (42%), Stoke (41%) and Leicester (39%) complete the top 5 defensive prospects according to the bookies this weekend. Despite having the joint-second worst defence overall in the league, the Black Cats have seen most of their goals conceded away from home (39 away vs 16 at home), so the hosting of West Brom, the division’s joint-second lowest away scorers (11), offers the possibility of defensive returns. Patrick van Aanholt has scored 5 and assisted 3 this term and his propensity for attacking gains means he is prominent in our thinking. Stoke entertain Swansea on Saturday, with the Potters looking to add to the 5 clean sheets already accrued at The Britannia this season. Shorn of Jack Butland through injury, and with the Swans notching in each of their last 6 away games, Philipp Wollscheid has to make do with a place on our bench. Kasper Schmeichel, on the back of 6 home clean sheets in 7 outings, enjoys a King Power encounter with an inconsistent Southampton side, failing to find the net in 3 of their last 6 away games. The Danish international completes our back 7 for Gameweek 32.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Bournemouth (21% – home to Man City), Aston Villa (17% – home to Chelsea) and Watford (11% – away to Arsenal) should be avoided this weekend.

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Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Sergio Aguero 2.17 46% Danny Welbeck 2.18 46% Alexis Sanchez 2.38 42% Loic Remy 2.5 40% Harry Kane 2.6 38% Jermain Defoe 2.67 37% Jamie Vardy 2.7 37% Bertrand Traore 2.7 37% Marcus Rashford 2.85 35% Diafra Sakho 2.9 34% Romelu Lukaku 2.95 34% Daniel Sturridge 3 33% Marko Arnautovic 3 33% Dieumerci Mbokani 3 33% Riyad Mahrez 3.1 32% Dimitri Payet 31% Mame Biram Diouf 31% Benik Afobe 3.3 30% Aleksandar Mitrovic 3.55 28% Roberto Firmino 28% Emmanuel Adebayor 28% Wahbi Khazri 28% Jesse Lingard 5 27% Salomon Rondon 5 27% Graziano Pelle 3.7 27% Alberto Paloschi 3.8 26% Yaya Toure 3.8 26% Gylfi Sigurdsson 4.25 24% Dele Alli 4.35 23% Odion Ighalo 4.4 23% Josh King 4.5 22% Rudy Gestede 4.5 22% Sadio Mane 4.6 22% Georginio Wijnaldum 4.6 22% Yannick Bolasie 5.25 19% Ross Barkley 5.3 19% Robbie Brady 5.8 17% Stephane Sessegnon 6.75 15% Carles Gil 7.5 13% Almen Abdi 8.5 12%

Sergio Aguero and Danny Welbeck both have 46% chances of scoring this weekend according to the bookies, but it’s the Argentine who takes the armband for our squad given his (ever so slightly) lower odds (2.17 vs 2.18). His opponents this weekend, Bournemouth, have the 4th-worst home defence in the top flight (23 goals conceded in 15), and, whilst City have hardly been prolific away from home, their talisman, who has 16 Premier League goals to his name this season, always has the ability to run riot against any team. Welbeck certainly represents the form option, having bagged 3 goals and an assist in 5 appearances since returning from injury, and the England international will fancy his chances against a Watford side that have only kept 2 clean sheets away from Vicarage Road this campaign.

Aguero and Welbeck will be joined up front by Loic Remy (40%). The French striker was handed a starting berth last time out in the wake of Diego Costa’s reception, and with the Spaniard serving the 2nd half of his 2 match ban this weekend, Remy will be looking to cement the striking position and cause problems against an Aston Villa outfit that has lost 6 on the bounce, conceding 18, an average of 3 per game, over that stretch.

The 1st midfielder to make our squad for Gameweek 32 is Stoke’s Marko Arnautovic (33%). Having carded 10 goals and 4 assists in the league this season, the burly Austrian, who has scored 3 in his last 5, faces Swansea and represents a decent option given the Swans haven’t registered defensive returns away from The Liberty since December (6 games without a clean sheet). Riyad Mahrez (32%) remains the season’s standout Fantasy performer (216 points) and joins Arnautovic in our midfield courtesy of a home clash with Southampton. The Saints, who registered 6 shutouts in succession over the course of January and February, have now conceded in each of their last 5, so Mahrez, who has notched 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 outings, should be confident of firing the Foxes another step closer to the Premier League crown.

Dimitri Payet (31%) and Roberto Firmino (28%) complete our midfield quartet. The mercurial Frenchman has produced attacking returns in 4 of his last 5 outings (2 goals and 4 assists) and squares up to Crystal Palace on Saturday with Alan Pardew’s men in dire form (winless in 13 and no clean sheet in 11). Since the turn of the year, Liverpool’s Brazilian forward has undoubtedly been the form player of the league, banging in 7 goals and setting up another 4 in 9 games, a run which has seen him register 4 double-digit hauls. A home clash against title-chasing Tottenham is far from the simplest of tasks, but with such consistency and explosive potential, Firmino could once again flourish. Wahbi Khazri (28%), who has averaged 4.1 points per game since arriving on English shores in January, makes our bench with Sunderland enjoying a favourable home encounter against West Brom.

Other viable options for the midfield positions include Chilean livewire Alexis Sanchez (42%), who is beginning to show shoots of recovery following a goal and 2 assists in his last 3, along with out-of-position Chelsea prospect Bertrand Traore (37% – 2 goals and an assist in 4), but they both miss out on our recommended XV due to squad selection restraints.

Team of the week

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Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.