In the retail business, it is never too early to think about Christmas. So a lot of people are thinking about it, and taking surveys to test the mood of the American consumer, and deciding that this Christmas will be as bad as last  which is to say, one of the worst on record.

Retailers are relieved to hear that prediction. Flat sales this holiday season would at least mean that things had stopped getting worse.

“It’s reflective of this ‘new normal’ we’re in,” said James Russo, vice president for global consumer insights at the Nielsen Company. “Flat is good.”

Over all, the retailing industry posted a sales decline of about 2 percent last Christmas season, the weakest performance since the late 1960s, when the Commerce Department began tracking holiday sales figures. Results for stores that sell clothing and luxury goods were far worse, typically declining by double digits. By contrast, several reports published in the last few days, including surveys by Nielsen and Deloitte, forecast no change in holiday sales from last year to this year.