This story is by The Athletic Soccer’s staff writers (in alphabetical order): Felipe Cardenas, Meg Linehan, Pablo Maurer, Matt Pentz, Jeff Rueter, Sam Stejskal and Paul Tenorio

Editor’s note: The day after this article was published, most North American soccer leagues suspended their games. Updates and news on those decision can be found here.

When the Seattle Sounders announced Wednesday that its game against FC Dallas on March 21st had been postponed due to the COVID-19 outbreak, it became the first major soccer team in the U.S. to substantially alter its season based on the pandemic that is impacting life and sport around the world.

The San Jose Earthquakes followed suit a few hours later when the club announced that it postponed its March 21st home match against Sporting Kansas City. As first reported by The Athletic, MLS got in on the act later on Wednesday, announcing that, beginning this weekend, all of its teams must fly privately to and from all road matches. That mandate will stay in place for the foreseeable future. More announcements in similar veins will likely be on the way over the next weeks.

While North American soccer is far from an important item in the grand scheme of the global coronavirus outbreak, Wednesday’s news shows that the game stands to be materially affected at multiple levels by the disease and its continuing spread.

MLS

Seattle and San Jose have already postponed matches. Other teams in other cities could join, if and when the disease takes deeper root across the continent in the coming weeks.

At a certain point, according to conversations with high-ranking sources at several clubs around the league, those postponements will have to stop and big decisions will need to be made. Games will either have to be played behind closed doors or matches will have to be canceled entirely. The sources said it wasn’t difficult to imagine the league being forced to shorten the current 34-game 2020 regular season schedule.

MLS has some room in its schedule for makeup dates, but space on the calendar is limited. The league has investigated several scenarios for rescheduling games, including adding midweek games in the summer and fall, according to a separate source with knowledge of the situation. The league also has the flexibility to extend the season and postseason to November and December, if needed, but the source said that option is currently not under consideration, though that could change over the next month depending on the impact and continuing spread of the virus.

Cancelling games or playing them in front of empty stadiums would obviously be a negative for the league, its teams and its fans, but it is also, on a broad level, probably more meaningful for MLS than it is for the other major U.S. pro leagues, the English Premier League, Serie A (which has canceled games through April 3rd), or the NCAA (which announced on Wednesday that it will not allow fans at its upcoming men’s and women’s basketball tournaments). One source with knowledge said playing games in front of an empty stadium was the league’s “last resort” choice.

That’s because, unlike those leagues and organizations, MLS doesn’t have a fat broadcast contract to fall back on. MLS’ current media rights deal pays $90 million a year from U.S. networks. In comparison, the NHL brings in $200 million per year in its American rights deal, while the NBA makes exponentially more, with rights worth $2.4 billion annually.

Due in part to this disparity, multiple sources said that the league’s teams derive a disproportionate amount of its revenue from games themselves — it’s their largest revenue stream. And if matches are canceled or played behind closed doors, the money brought in from ticket sales, parking, concessions and merchandise would disappear on a continual basis. Sponsorship agreements that feature matchday activations would also likely have to be amended. One source said that their club, through the course of contingency planning, projected a potential 20 percent decrease in 2020 revenue due to the outbreak. The source characterized that as a relatively conservative projection; it didn’t account for more than a few match cancellations.

The sources said that their MLS teams have all started planning for those types of realities. Cutbacks, furloughing employees and even layoffs aren’t out of the question depending on the scale of the outbreak and its impact on the MLS schedule. None of that even takes into account the impact canceling matches would have in terms of lost pay for game-day stadium workers or on businesses that rely on match crowds for some of their income.

“The first thing that is very important to say is that what we care about most is the public health and well-being of our fans, our staff and our players,” Sounders general manager and president of soccer Garth Lagerwey told reporters when addressing Seattle’s postponement on Wednesday. “That’s what drives these decisions. But clearly, stuff like this is going to have an impact not just on our business, but on lots of different businesses.”

Some MLS teams are likely to feel more adequately prepared to deal with the loss of revenue than others, in part because of research performed to prepare for an entirely different potential stoppage in play — a player strike or lockout, possibilities that were well-within the realm of possibility just a few months ago as the league and its players were locked in CBA talks.

“(We’ve) already looked through various scenarios,” D.C. United chief revenue officer Andy Bush told The Athletic on Wednesday. “For example whether there was a work stoppage or not, that was something that led us to do some of those calculations. It was more a thing of dusting off some of that research. There are some things in there that are obviously a bit nuanced — do you play behind closed doors, do you not, what does that really cost; but we’ve been ready from the financial research standpoint for a while.”

Coupled with all parties’ preference to play games in front of fans for aesthetic and entertainment reasons, the high-ranking club sources said that those financial factors are playing a big role in driving MLS’s preference to postpone matches rather than play them in front of empty stadiums.

Losing gameday revenue, especially if for a significant period, would obviously be a problem, but for most MLS teams, it wouldn’t be existential. Owners around the league have relatively deep pockets. Most can afford a bigger-than-usual financial loss on their MLS teams, even an eight-figure one. The sources said that teams might change their behavior, but it’s not like they’ll be in danger of going under.

That’s not the case elsewhere.

USL

While MLS’s current broadcast deal pales in comparison to other big leagues in North America and abroad, the league still gathers a far greater sum than the USL. Last summer, the USL and ESPN agreed to a three-year deal which pays the league just over $1 million per year. It served as the first major amount of national media rights income for the league, though it’s far from enough to truly kick off revenue sharing across the 47 clubs in the Championship and League One.

Due to the lack of significant shared revenue across the league, clubs are even more reliant on matchday income than their MLS counterparts. One USL source estimated that mid-to-lower-level clubs make between $30,000-$50,000 per game, while the top independent Championship clubs could see over $200,000 per game. Across 17 home matches, that represents the largest pool of income these clubs see during the season.

While the lower divisions have stabilized more in recent years, Fresno FC and Lansing Ignite both folded after the 2019 season due to their ownership groups’ financial concerns. If the USL season was cut short to accommodate a layoff between matches due to COVID-19, there may be more clubs facing their own mortality who otherwise would be fine to operate into 2021 and beyond — or more instances where the league would have to step in.

NWSL

The threat of financial consequences seems further off for NWSL, which is still only three days into preseason. Still, the league has been more proactive than usual, having already released a statement on COVID-19 outlining precautions the league is taking before the regular season starts on April 18th. The league said it is “closely monitoring the spread of the virus with respect to our scheduled preseason and regular season matches, and will be in a position to make changes as necessary to respond to developments as they happen.”

Much like the USL, the NWSL could face serious financial difficulties in the event of cancelations or closed-door matches, though they have the benefit of having more time until the season starts. Independent clubs could be at the greatest risk (a group that includes the Chicago Red Stars, Sky Blue FC and the Washington Spirit). Their issues could be further compounded if the league opts start the season on time, but without fans in the stadiums — some independent NWSL clubs pay gameday costs associated with hosting at rented venues such as Red Bull Arena or Audi Field. Without fans in the stands, there will be no revenue to offset those costs, making each game a loss for organizations that are already operating on thin margins by necessity.

As of now, the April 18th opening fixture between the Washington Spirit and OL Reign is still scheduled to take place at Audi Field, and be broadcast on CBS as part of the league’s new television deal.

International competition

The impact of COVID-19 obviously applies to the international game as well. U.S. Soccer is bracing for the potential of changes to international fixtures for the men’s, women’s, Olympic and youth national teams, as well as with its development academy youth teams. The federation currently has not made any changes to those fixtures, but warned that the situation was changing day to day.

“With U.S. national teams competing, or preparing to compete, in events and tournaments across the world, U.S. Soccer is closely monitoring the public health developments regarding COVID-19 here in the United States and internationally,” the federation said in a statement. “As always, the health and safety of our players, coaches, staff and fans is paramount. U.S. Soccer medical staff is in real-time communication with both domestic and international health authorities, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and infectious disease specialists, and are preparing for any precautions that may be necessary as the situation continues to develop.”

Other federations, including CONMEBOL, are pushing back March fixture dates for 2022 World Cup qualifying. CONCACAF has not yet done so, and as of now plans to hold its Olympic qualifying tournament in Guadalajara remain in place. The U.S. Under-23 team is already in Guadalajara, Mexico as part of a camp in preparation for that tournament, which begins play on March 20th.

The senior Mexican men’s national team is also still on schedule to play friendlies on March 26th vs. Czech Republic in Charlotte and on March 29th vs. Greece in Dallas. Cancellations of those events would have an impact not just to the Mexican federation, which regularly sells out NFL stadiums on El Tri U.S. tours, but also to the players themselves. Last summer, Mexico’s players fought to negotiate an increased share of earnings from Mexico’s friendlies.

One source said MLS is keeping an eye on how FIFA handles the upcoming international window, as teams would be less inclined to release players for international travel during a pandemic. It is not out of the realm of possibility that players could be forced into quarantine due to that travel, causing them to miss more club matches after the window closes.

CONCACAF Champions League games remain on-schedule. Atlanta United is set to play at Club America in Mexico and NYCFC will host Tigres at Red Bull Arena on Wednesday night, while LAFC will host Cruz Azul on Thursday. Atlanta will host Club America in Georgia next week, while NYCFC, LAFC and Montreal will have away dates against CONCACAF opponents.

U.S. Soccer and MLS clubs are in regular contact with CONCACAF regarding those respective competitions.

“At CONCACAF we are closely following the CDC guideline in the United States, and monitoring public health developments across the entire region,” a CONCACAF spokesperson said. “Based on the information available to us at this time, we are working on our upcoming tournaments going ahead as planned. The situation is constantly evolving and we will of course follow any new guidance provided by local authorities or relevant government departments.”

It should be noted that these decisions are not up to teams, leagues or even federations alone. The Sounders’ postponement of their March 21st home match was precipitated by Washington Governor Jay Inslee’s announcement earlier on Wednesday that gatherings of more than 250 people are banned through at least the end of the month.

“I do want to stress that this isn’t us,” Lagerwey said. “We have our internal task force … and we have contingency plans laid out for all this stuff, including financial models. … There’s just not a simple answer of, are you going to do this or are you going to do that? We are, as much as humanly possible, going to go in lock-step with public health authorities and what they recommend as the guiding principle.”

The MLS Players’ Association has also been involved in discussions.

“The Players Association and MLS are working hand in hand to ensure that everything possible is being done to protect the health and safety of players, staff and fans,” MLSPA executive director Bob Foose said in a statement to The Athletic. “In doing so, we are relying heavily on guidance from the Center for Disease Control and local public health officials. We will continue to work in consultation and close coordination with the league on every major decision as well as the implications for, and impact on, players. Despite the rapidly evolving nature of this situation, we are all working collectively toward the same goals and we are confident that the league is doing its best to make the right decisions as expeditiously as possible.”

Travel concerns

MLS teams are required to charter flights for international competition, and U.S. Soccer players are already in Mexico for Olympic qualifying. But travel issues remain at the forefront of planning for the league and federation with respect to the virus.

Sources told The Athletic that MLS amended its travel policy on Wednesday. All teams will now be required to take charter flights to and from all road games until further notice. MLS teams normally fly commercial to road games, though the newly agreed-upon CBA required that all clubs take charter flights for exactly eight legs of travel during the 2020 regular season. Charters taken under the new travel mandate, which will theoretically allow teams to avoid potential public exposure to COVID-19 that they would’ve had on commercial flights, will not count towards that total. According to one of the sources, each team will pay between $1-2 million for the charters if they run through the end of May.

MLS put out a statement on Wednesday that outlined some of the changes it was making due to the coronavirus, including restrictions on media in locker rooms, cleaning procedures in stadiums and the mandatory charter travel.

MLS commissioner Don Garber is still expected to travel to South Florida for Inter Miami’s inaugural home game this weekend, according to a source.

It’s beyond argument that the financial and logistical issues faced by any club or federation at any level of the game in the U.S. are far less important than the safety and well-being of fans and the populous at large. As Lagerwey said in his press conference on Wednesday, “the first thing that is very important to say is that what we care about most is the public health and well-being of our fans, our staff and our players.”

But it’s also impossible not to consider the effects of a potential pandemic on a sport that employs thousands of players, coaches, front office staffers and gameday employees, all of whom depend upon the sport itself as a livelihood. The effects, which are presently the source of much speculation, may become very real, very quickly.

(Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)