President Ilham Aliyev’s surprise shakeup of his cabinet, including the apparent forced retirement of the powerful head of administration, has prompted speculation about whether true political reforms are likely.

Some analysts believe the moves by the president are a signal of his dissatisfaction with the state of the country’s economy, and also a reaction to public opposition to presidential policies, expressed in public protests.

The country was shaken on October 23 by the unexpected ouster of Ramiz Mehdiyev, the veteran head of the administration and holdover from Aliyev’s father’s regime. Mehdiyev, who turned 81 in April, was apparently forced to retire.

The same week Aliyev said he hoped officials in their 70s would resign. The President said such retirements are “necessary to give way to a younger generation.”

“You are now in your eighties and you have always said that we must promote youth, give way to the younger generation so that they grow mature and our development becomes long-term,” Aliyev said in an address before he awarded Mehdiyev with “the Heydar Aliyev” order for “effective and long-term special services in the field of public administration and science development.”

Aliyev has kept many of his father’s appointments intact since taking over as president in 2003. He has been re-elected three times since then. But some critics say that Mehdiyev, appointed by the president’s father (Heydar) Aliyev in 1995, as the head of conservative forces in the government, was hindering reforms that Aliyev wants, a move that led to his ouster.

The Mehdiyev removal was perhaps the most dramatic move, not only because of his long history with the Aliyev family, but because of his powerful status in the government. Known as an authoritarian figure who held pro-Russian and anti-Western views, Mehdiyev selected the MPs who ran for the country’s parliamentary election and he was responsible for appointing executive heads. He also controlled the entire law enforcement agencies of the country, and was a key figure of the arrest of certain human rights activists, and has called some activists, Anar Mammadov, Intigam Aliyev and Rasul Jafarov as “traitors.”

The concentration of power in Mehdiyev’s hands reportedly concerned the president’s wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, who is vice-president and the leader of the family clan that had been struggling behind the scenes with the Mehdiyev team. Mehdiyev and his colleagues dated back to the Soviet era, and originated from Nakhichevan and Armenia. His reputation was damaged by some incidents over the years, particularly in 2013 before the presidential elections. At that time, Mehdiyev was targeted by a video campaign launched by a former university rector and alleging corruption in the Aliyev adminisration. (See Gulargate tape scandal.) According to analysts, the rift between the two factions deepened when Aliyeva emerged as a a major player in her husband’s administration and was appointed vice-president, among other president-backed 2016 constitutional changes.

Those 2016 constitutional changes also diminished the position of the head of the presidential administration, then Mehdiyev, and meant the end of jockeying to replace the chief of staff as well as the office of a premier. Since then, younger people loyal to Aliyeva were appointed to major positions, replacing members of the Mehdiyev team.

Ziya Mammadov, former Minister of Transport, who headed the ministry for nearly 15 years, was the first target of the struggle after the 2016 changes and was dismissed in 2017.

But the drama actually began in 2015, when the national currency was devalued. The oil-rich country, which had enjoyed stability and economic growth, suddenly experienced a sharp decline in oil prices that shook the financial system. Many Azerbaijanis converted their money to international currencies. Falling salaries, declining pensions and reduced savings in manat led to public protests.

The fluctuating status of the manat and rising public discontent damaged the country’s reputation. During this period, Eldar Mahmudov, National Security Chief, and Cahangir Hajiyev, head of the International Bank of Azerbaijan, both in the Mehdiyev camp, were removed from their positions.

Mehdiyev had ruled the presidential administration for 24 years. His ouster came just days after two of his colleagues, Hajibala Abutalibov, deputy prime minister and former Baku mayor, and Ali Hasanov, another deputy prime minister, were removed from their positions.

Abutalibov and Hasanov, both known as loyal Soviet-era politicians who helped put Heydar Aliyev to power, were not popular with the citizenry.

Abutalibov, who was mayor of Baku for nearly 20 years, but was a figure of controversy because of some of his puzzling behavior. Local media reported he suffered from mental illness and had been hospitalized.

Hasanov, who for 20 years was chair of the State Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan for Affairs of Refugees and IDPs, was quoted as making insulting remarks about refugees. His family, particularly his grandchildren, attracted negative attention with car accidents. Both politicians, regarded as members of Mehdiyev’s old-guard faction, were considered to be hindering Aliyev’s efforts to make changes.