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Miguel Cabrera is one Tiger that PECOTA is still bullish about.

(Mike Mulholland, MLive)

DETROIT -- Tuesday is PECOTA Day at Baseball Prospectus, which means the popular stats-centric website has released its projections for 2017.

If you're looking for reasons to be optimistic for the upcoming season, you should probably choose not to plunk down the subscription fee.

The Detroit Tigers are projected to score 741 runs and allow 770 for a record of 78-84. That's behind the Cleveland Indians (92-70) and Minnesota Twins (80-82) in the American League Central. The Chicago White Sox (76-86) and the chronically undervalued Kansas City Royals (71-91) bring up the rear in the projections.

Subscribers can view the nitty-gritty details behind the projections here.

Why the negativity from PECOTA? (Named for former player Bill Pecota, PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Here's the methodology.)

Of the nine regulars in the Tigers' lineup, only three are projected to improve on their 2016 numbers: Catcher James McCann, shortstop Jose Iglesias and left fielder Justin Upton. PECOTA is perpetually pessimistic about J.D. Martinez and also doesn't expect second baseman Ian Kinsler to maintain his power numbers.

In center field, PECOTA gives very slight offensive edge to Tyler Collins and Mikie Mahtook over JaCoby Jones (although the numbers are similar for all three).

The Tigers' starting rotation doesn't fare well, either, as PECOTA foresees no bounce-back season for Jordan Zimmermann.

After Justin Verlander, PECOTA projects a combined 4.57 ERA for Zimmermann, Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris, Anibal Sanchez and Matt Boyd.

And the less said about the bullpen the better.

The only pitchers projected to have an ERA under 4.00 are Shane Greene and Justin Wilson.

So after all that, let's take a look at a few glass-half-full perspectives.

* The AL Central is projected to be really bad, which is good news for the Tigers, who can hope to rack up wins against the Twins, White Sox and Royals. The Indians were their nemesis in 2016, which must be reversed in 2017.

* PECOTA is still bullish on Miguel Cabrera. His bat can carry an offense when the rest of the team is struggling.

* PECOTA isn't always right. Exhibit A is the Royals, who won two AL pennants while PECOTA said they were worthless. (In 2015, they won 95 games while PECOTA pegged them at 72). The Orioles, who made the playoffs in 2016, are also frequently undervalued.

This story was updated with new projections after Baseball Prospectus released an update Tuesday afternoon.