In February, the DCCC added Katko to its "retirement watch list." At the time, Katko's campaign said he intended to seek re-election in 2020.

On the heels of the FiveThirtyEight story, the DCCC reiterated its belief that Katko may not run for another term.

"With his fellow vulnerable Republicans waving their white flags of defeat with a brutal re-election campaign coming up, Congressman Katko knows his chances of holding onto this seat are becoming less likely with each passing day," said Christine Bennett, a DCCC spokesperson. "John Katko knows November 2020 won't be pretty."

However, Katko isn't budging. In July, he made it official: He will seek a fourth term in Congress. He launched his re-election campaign by raising more than $521,000 in the second quarter of the year — a personal high for fundraising in a non-election year and his second-best quarter in four campaigns for the 24th district seat.