Three years ago the International Cricket Council ran a World Cup in the Caribbean so inept that it made the Atlanta Olympics seem like a roaring success by comparison. The region, so keen to take advantage of the profile offered by the event, instead was humiliated.

Overshadowed by the death of Bob Woolmer, it was – beyond a memorable opening spectacular in Trelawny – a fiasco, culminating in the farcical finish it deserved. In wanting to present the essence of Caribbean cricket the ICC missed the point memorably. New stadiums were built, designed to hold the thousands who never came because they had been priced out, alienated and subjected to ludicrously overstated security. The disincentives to gaining enjoyment might have come straight from a puritan handbook.

But over the next three weeks or so there is a chance of redemption. That the World Twenty20 comes so soon after the last edition, an outstanding success in England, is unfortunate, not least for the reigning champions Pakistan, but represents a recalibrating of the international calendar. However, the opportunity for the region to re-establish its cricketing credentials is huge, with a hit-and-dash schedule to match the cricket.

The format is snappy, with group matches mainly in Guyana and St Lucia, all double-headers, designed to pare back a dozen teams to make a Super Eight series in Barbados. Then come semi-finals in St Lucia and a final on 16 May at the magnificently redeveloped Kensington Oval. The women's tournament takes place on St Kitts, with semi-finals and final following those of the men.

The failure of India and Pakistan to make it through to the Super Eight stage of the last World Cup was a financial disaster for rights holders on the subcontinent. From that perspective the biggest game was supposed to have been in Bridgetown between the two great rivals: Bangladesh against Ireland did not have the same allure.

For the next World Cup and indeed this tournament ICC has gone out of its way to try to ensure such an anomaly cannot happen. But the shorter the game, the greater the chance of an upset. T20 is set up for surprise results and so, if Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Ireland and Afghanistan after their brilliant story are marked down as the fall guys, then the warm-up games – in which Zimbabwe have beaten Australia and Afghanistan thumped Ireland – have shown what a dangerous presumption that can be.

Of the four groups England's, with West Indies and Ireland, is probably the easiest to predict. The hosts are mavericks, potential winners even, and their new head coach, Ottis Gibson, may bring some discipline to their game. But Ireland, realistically, ought not to be able to compete, though England's defeat by Holland in the last T20 is still a sore point. The Afghanistan story will probably come to an abrupt end in St Lucia, as they have to beat both South Africa and India.

But what to make of the remaining two groups? Zimbabwe's success against Australia the other day was a pointer and the seat-of-the-pants nature of Pakistan's cricket means that Bangladesh must have real hopes of qualifying. They are improving all the time, and suited to what, if their game against England on Wednesday is anything to go by, will be slow take-the-pace-off-the-ball pitches. Zimbabwe must have hopes too. They face Sri Lanka and New Zealand, powerful sides on their day but beatable nonetheless.

In terms of batting, England appear to have progressed, although the obsession with the first six overs disregards that there is no time for dalliance at any stage and that even more emphasis should be on the final three or four overs. The latest opening pairing of Michael Lumb, with his IPL experience, and Craig Kieswetter is a step in the right direction but a lack of international experience could count against. But in Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood (the one genuine England IPL success) and Eoin Morgan they have quality T20 players.

Instead it is the bowling that may let them down. Two of the seamers, James Anderson and Stuart Broad, are prone to haemorrhage runs at the best of times while Luke Wright comes into the enthusiastic category. It may be that Graeme Swann, Collingwood with his cutters and, as shown by Wednesday's game, Michael Yardy have real parts to play.

Trying to pick a winner, or even semi‑finalists, is pin-sticking, though. No predictive element holds good in T20. India ought to be competitive and have brought on some exciting young players for the future in IPL. But their first match against Afghanistan, tomorrow, is not to be taken lightly. If the Super Eight pitches are slow, then neither Australia nor South Africa, with significant pace attacks, will be quite the force they might otherwise be.

On the other hand, such conditions might help both Sri Lanka and New Zealand, the latter always dangerous if historically unable to go the final mile. West Indies have a real chance and might just be inspired by the support they will get now that ticket pricing is sensible (around 60% of tickets pre-sold apparently). Pakistan? Who knows? Which leaves England and it is hard to see them progressing beyond the Super Eight stage.

Instead an England success will have to come from the women, who have been toppled from the perch recently but who are back to full strength now. There was no better match of the last tournament, male or female, than their semi-final against Australia, and there is stronger competition now. But they have the drive to win.