When I first started covering NJ Transit, the agency wasn't considered a national disgrace, as Gov. Phil Murphy recently labeled it.

Sure, the buses and trains didn't always run on time and riders complained, but by and large, the system moved passengers with far fewer problems.

That was 20 years ago.

The agency's fall from grace wasn't as fast as a Real Housewife of New Jersey, but more like the slow roll of a snow ball that becomes an avalanche.

From grace to "disgrace" I've watched the NJ Transit show, both as a reporter and a rider.

I covered the agency and rode the Raritan Valley Line back and forth to work while at a different news organization. I still regularly ride the bus and light rail and periodically take the train, but I've seen the problems get worse over time and have listened as the drumbeat of commuter complaints has gotten louder.

For the first time, NJ Transit was a campaign issue in the gubernatorial election and commuters are counting on Gov. Murphy to deliver reforms. He's started by ordering a top to bottom audit, announced Monday.

Based on my two decades of watching the organization, here's what an audit may reveal.

Finances and fares

I've written numerous "reasons why your fare will go up this year" articles since the 2015 fare hike.

And so far, NJ Transit has proven me wrong. As a rider, I'm happy for that. As a reporter, I wonder how they're doing it and what's being sacrificed? Those answers haven't been forthcoming.

1629. Why expect a seat for near $300. If they were transporting cattle PETA would be protesting. Note empty seat is the useless fixed opposing seat that no one with legs can use pic.twitter.com/A5PMjdEyuf — Robert McDonald (@RthBHistCor) January 22, 2018

Gov. Christie decreed there would be no fare increase after NJ Transit and unions settled contracts in 2016, but he didn't say where the money would come from to fund operating expenses. NJT has posted operating revenue deficits since 2015, blamed on decreasing ridership due to low gas prices.

So let's expect the audit to answer the question how the deficits are being covered and, most importantly, what areas of NJTs operations have been cut so that fares don't have to be raised.

The audit also needs to answer questions about the capital budget, which pays for new trains and buses and major projects.

Since the late 1990's I've heard experts, such as Martin Robins, one of NJ Transit's creators, talk about how the agency has spent (or misspent) millions of dollars meant for major purchases and projects to run the daily operations. The Tri-State Transportation Campaign estimates NJ Transit transferred a total of $7 billion since 1990 from capital funds intended for major projects to cover increasing operating costs. It's like a driver spending the money set aside for new tires to buy gas and a Big Mac instead.

Meanwhile, commuters continue to use rail cars that are 38 to 43 years old, which are finally scheduled to be replaced.

Expect an audit to detail how the money, that was supposed to expand rail and bus routes and buy new equipment, was squandered and those purchases put off.

Maintenance

A decade ago, used NJ Transit buses and trains were coveted because they were well maintained. I remember seeing ex-NJT buses being driven on the NJ Turnpike by their new owners straight from being sold at auction.

Now NJ Transit runs the wheels off its buses and trains to stretch the budget, and questions have been raised about the level of maintenance and why so many trains are sitting at the Meadowlands Maintenance Complex waiting for repair. Commuters complain daily about train and bus breakdowns, trains missing cars, and the resulting overcrowding on trains and buses.





Main/Bergen Line - looks like YET ANOTHER DISABLED TRAIN. With NO EXAGGERATION, this has become a DAILY OCCURENCE. I get that you don’t have the $$$ to dig new tunnels under the Hudson - but your trains can barely run anyways! How is OUR infrastructure failing so badly?!?!,!?!?!? — Rich Haskell (@architrance) January 23, 2018

What happened? An audit should reveal answers that NJ Transit has been reluctant to provide and say why its trains had the second-worst breakdown record in the country in 2016. Buses also ranked sixth worst for breakdowns in 2015.

The Governor's influence

Every governor has left an imprint on NJ Transit, but none as much as Chris Christie. While Gov. Jon S. Corzine hustled the award of construction contracts to build the ARC tunnels through NJ Transit's board before he left office, Christie's impact is beyond tunnel deep.

I'm not going to rehash Christie's decision to kill the ARC tunnel.

I read the Federal Transit Administration audit of ARC that projected cost overruns could balloon the project cost to $12.7 billion. That led Christie to cancel the project fearing taxpayers would be stuck with $2.5 billion in added costs.

The fault with Christie's decision was that the money from ARC wasn't set aside for the Gateway Tunnel, advocates said. The Gateway funding agreement with federal officials is now in question.

The agency's autonomy has been eroded over the terms of several governors, but came to a head when Christie packed NJ Transit's administration with political appointees.

Some revelations about the effects of patronage hires came out of 18 months of hearings held by a legislative committee and testimony of a former official.

Expect an audit to reveal more information about the damaging effects from patronage hires.

If this sounds like the inside baseball details that only interest lawmakers in Trenton, think again: These people decide when your fare is increased, how much it goes up, what service gets cut and how late or early the trains and buses run.

Other Political influence

The governor isn't the only one who's welded political influence over NJT. The agency is happy to spend money to study projects that legislators want in their district, even though there is no money to build the project.

An example is the revived study of a Passaic-Hudson-Bergen light rail line announced in 2015. That project was studied in 2008 and shelved waiting for funding. Some of the data in that study is now out of date, so guess what needs to be done over?

Rinse and repeat. An audit will hopefully reveal how much money has been spent continously studying projects that will never get built.

A audit should shine some light on this and give lawmakers a dose of reality - there's no sense studying a project if there is no funding to build it.

Safety

This could be the big reveal.

The Federal Railroad Administration has cited the agency for various violations in the wake of the Sept. 29, 2016, train crash in Hoboken Terminal, that killed a pedestrian and injured 108 people.

The FRA issued 15 violation notices following an audit last year. That came after a 2016 FRA audit found "dozens of safety violations." An audit could pull back the curtain on other safety issues that haven't been made public.

Who does NJ Transit's board represent?

Commuter advocates have a joke about the number of "no" votes cast by NJ Transit's board by comparing board members to bobbleheads. With a few exceptions, this is a board that rarely has a no-vote.



The background behind some decisions and operations will hopefully be revealed by an audit.

And one last question: Which board members regularly ride NJ Transit?

Seems like a simple question, but it is apparently a hard one for most board members, who have been reticient to acknowledge if they take a train or bus.

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.