The Matildas take on Jamaica in the final game of Group C on Wednesday morning at 5:00am (AEST), with a spot in the round of 16 on the line.

To get through the group and escape the ignominy of failure to do so for the first time since 2003, the Matildas can finish first, second or third.

However, where the Matildas finish is far from set in stone and will have massive implications as to who they will face next — and when.

Can the Matildas still win the group?

Winning the group is still a possibility, and, with the group winner likely to avoid heavyweights the USA, England and France until the final, that is a desirable outcome for the Matildas.

To do that, they need to beat Jamaica comfortably and rely on Brazil beating Italy by the correct number of goals to have any chance of finishing top of the group.

So how can that all happen? Let's jump down the result-permutations rabbit hole to find out.

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Positions in the group phase at this World Cup are first determined as thus:

By points scored (3 for a win, 1 for a draw)

By points scored (3 for a win, 1 for a draw) Then goal difference

Then goal difference Then the number of goals scored

Then the number of goals scored Then head to head record between two teams tied on the above

So, after getting the calculator out, the Matildas need to better Brazil's result over Italy by two goals, assuming that Brazil beats Italy by more than two goals in the first place.

For example, if Brazil beats Italy 2-0 and Australia wins 5-0, the Matildas will finish top of the group, Brazil second and Italy third.

In the above scenario, both Brazil and Italy will be level on points, goals scored and goals conceded, but Brazil will finish ahead of Italy thanks to a better head-to-head record against the Italians by virtue of its hypothetical day-three victory.

Marta (right) is currently under an injury cloud and may not face Italy. ( AP: Claude Paris )

However, should the Matildas win 4-0 and Brazil "only" wins 2-0 (or less), Australia will still finish top thanks to the number of goals scored.

What we're saying is, it's far from impossible for the Matildas to top the group — especially if the Matildas' fired-up forwards get on a roll — but the key point is that Brazil has to beat Italy.

Who is likely to win the group?

If Italy secures a win or a draw, they'll go through as group winners — and Le Azzurre is more than likely do just that.

For a start, Italy has impressed and surprised in equal measure during this World Cup and should have enough to at least manage a draw against a Brazilian side that will be without key midfielder Formiga due to suspension.

Italy's shock result over the Matildas on match day one could see Le Azzurre finish top of the group. ( AP: Francisco Seco )

As group winners, Italy will likely face one of the lucky third-place finishers (more on that below) from Groups A, B or F in the round of 16 — which look likely to be China or Nigeria — on June 25 in Le Havre.

In fact, even defeat against Brazil could be enough for Italy to top the group. If Brazil only wins by one clear goal and Australia can only manage a four-goal (or smaller) victory over Jamaica, Italy will still finish top on goal difference.

So the Matildas will finish in second?

The most likely situation is that the Matildas will finish in second spot, assuming a comfortable victory over Jamaica and an Italian victory/draw.

If the Matildas do finish in second, then they will take on the second-place finisher from Group A, Norway, on June 23 in Nice.

Norway is of course without Balon d'Or winner Ada Hegerberg thanks to her disagreement with the national association, but the Norwegians are no pushovers even without their star player and could pose a very tough test for the Matildas.

Norway finished second to hosts France in Group A. ( AP: Alessandra Tarantino )

After that, a potential quarter-final match-up with England and a semi-final clash with the winner of a probable USA vs France quarter-final awaits.

Yikes.

Does finishing in third spot still mean the Matildas will qualify?

Yes. The four best third-placed teams will qualify for the round of 16 along with the winners and runners-up of the six groups.

There are a myriad of complex scenarios that affect this — enough to cause even the most studious of mathematicians' heads to spin — relating to goals scored, red and yellow cards, and goals conceded across all the groups — so we'll cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

The Matildas can't afford to trip up. ( AP: David Zalubowski )

Sadly for the Matildas, should they finish third, they will also fall into the tough side of the draw.

What we do know is that the Matildas will finish third and play in Montpellier on June 22 if they can only scrape past Jamaica by one or two goals and Brazil secures a narrow win over Italy.

The Matildas will also finish in third if they draw *shudder*, or *bigger shudder* narrowly lose to the Jamaicans.

Should the Matildas finish third, they will play the winner of either Group A or B. Namely, France or Germany. Yikes.

Are there any other possibilities?

Sadly, yes — there is the option we shall call the Voldemort option seeing as just the utterance of the phrase had everyone in the office covering their ears and la-la-la-ing loudly to themselves.

Hopefully Sam will have a happier expression on her face after the match against Jamaica. ( AAP: Daniel Pockett )

Incredibly, the Matildas could still finish bottom of the group.

For that to happen, the Aussies would need to be stunned by Jamaica to the tune of four goals. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible though?

Let's not think about it.

In short though, rather than worrying about who might be up next, the Matildas would be better served just scoring as many goals as possible against Jamaica and, to use one of the buzz phrases so loved by sports psychologists and coaches everywhere, control the controllables.