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Peak oil demand may be just 12 years away.

That’s according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts including Peter Helles, who predict that 40 percent of all car sales will be electric vehicles by 2030, reducing the need for oil as a fuel for transport.

“Electric vehicles will likely start to erode this last major bastion of oil demand growth in the early 2020s and cause global oil demand to peak by 2030,” the analysts wrote in an emailed report.

Despite strong global oil consumption helping to push crude prices higher, the rise of electric vehicles is seen as one of the biggest long-term threats to demand. Most oil companies see demand peaking around 2040, while Royal Dutch Shell Plc has said it expects to see demand peak in the early 2030s. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said late last year that it expects oil demand growth to crawl, but not peak, by 2035, forcing major energy companies to shift from oil to natural gas and chemicals.