Algorithmic Analysis

I Know First is a financial services firm that utilizes an advanced self-learning algorithm to analyze, model and predict the stock market. 1 year ago the algorithm forecast a strong bullish signal for Mircon stock (first box). On August 4th we published the surprising bearish forecast for Micron from July 16th (second box), at a time when most analysts insisted on strong bullish signals. The article named “Moving Forward with Micron Technology: Algorithmic Analysis” focused on the unexpected short term (1 month and 3 months)price depreciation forecasts. The forecast was correct, and the stock was down to $27.03 on Oct 13th, a -21.42% since the bearish forecast. The Algorithm changed from a bearish to bullish signal on the 13th of October 2014, which has turned out to produce a15% price increase in just 7 days (10/14/2014 – 10/21/2014).

(click to enlarge)

Figure 5. Timeline for Micron Stock forecasts and returns.

(click to enlarge)

Figure 6. The 1 Year Micron stock chart with I Know First Buy and Sell recommendations taken from figure 5. Source: Google Finance

The Micron Technology stock price is forecasted to increase in the 1-month, 3-months and 1-year horizons, according to the algorithm. Our recent forecast agrees with the current analyst predictions for Micron stock. In the chart below, Micron’s future forecast has a green background. Green indicates a forecast of appreciating stock price prediction (While red indicates a depreciating forecast). The positive number in the middle of the above mentioned boxes represents the direction and magnitude by which the algorithm predicts the stock will move. I Know First algorithm also includes a predictability quotient, indicating the algorithm’s level of confidence in the forecast; this is represented by the decimal number at the bottom of the stock. Investors can further increase the accuracy of I Know First forecasts by comparing the stock’s present signal and predictability to I Know First historical forecasts of the same stock. Further explanations are available here.

(click to enlarge)

Figure 6. Algorithmic forecast for Micron (NASDAQ:MU) on October 22nd, 2014: bullish across the 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year time horizons. Source: I Know First Research

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha