By Joe Garafoli, San Francisco Chronicle

LAS VEGAS — With no state income tax, a palpable mistrust of the federal government and a what-happens-in-Vegas attitude on social issues, Nevada’s Republican presidential caucus on Saturday would seem to be a contest that libertarian-leaning, small government-loving Texas Rep. Ron Paul could win.

But it’s not that simple. One key reason that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is favored to win is that about 25 percent of the voters are expected to be members of the The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Four years ago, exit polls showed that 95 percent of them supported Romney, their fellow Mormon, which helped him easily win the Nevada caucus with 51 percent of the vote to Paul’s 13.7 percent.

Word of mouth

Undaunted, Paul’s campaign is aggressively courting the LDS community, sending teams of supporters to canvas neighborhoods near Mormon temples. On their own, church members are talking up Paul in their tightly-knit communities and appealing to their family-focused culture by passing out copies of The Ron Paul Cookbook.

It’s part of Paul’s coalition strategy here to mine several different constituencies, from Latinos to veterans. There’s even outreach to Nevada’s sizable home-schooling community and local food co-ops.

In a caucus where Nevada GOP officials expect roughly 50,000 people to vote, no voting bloc is being overlooked.

“I expect (Paul) to do well here because it’s a very libertarian political culture — it’s not a conservative one,” said Ted Jelen, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas

While both candidates have been organizing in the state essentially since their 2008 runs, Jelen said, Newt Gingrich has little campaign infrastructure in the state.

Some of Paul’s LDS supporters, like Las Vegas resident David Isbell, said the entry of former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman into the race caused many Mormons to think about automatically supporting Romney. Now Huntsman is out of the race.

Like other church members, Isbell checks in with several families a month on personal and spiritual issues. If he is comfortable enough, he begins to talk about Paul. He’s even handed out copies of Paul’s recipe book. What really resonates, said Isbell and other LDS supporters of Paul, is how the Texas congressman has been consistent with the issues while Romney’s position has changed on abortion and same sex marriage, among others.

Constitution plays role

Paul’s supporters see an opening. Mormons view the Constitution as a divinely-inspired document, and no GOP candidate mentions the sanctity of the Constitution as frequently as Paul.

“As a Mormon, when you meet someone who shares your faith, you have an instant bond,” said Aaron Anderson, a Las Vegas real estate agent who supported Romney four years ago but now backs Paul. And if a politician is Mormon, “you assume they share your values.”

But Anderson said Paul “better espouses the freedoms that are spelled out in the Constitution.”

Paul’s deputy Nevada state director James Barcia hopes this “novel approach” to reach out to LDS members could work in Western states with sizable Mormon blocs, including California.

“To us, the Constitution is the word of God,” said Kevin Sair, who drove three hours to hear Paul speak Wednesday, “and nobody ignites the spirit of what that means like Ron Paul.”