Almost half of Ontario voters disapprove of Doug Ford as leader of the Progressive Conservatives, but the party is still poised to win a majority in the upcoming provincial election, according to a new public opinion poll.

Of the 923 Ontario voters surveyed Sunday by the Forum Poll, 48 per cent said they disapprove of Doug Ford, 36 per cent said they approve and 16 per cent said they don’t know.

If an election were held on Sunday, the Liberals would lose, securing only 23 per cent of the vote, or 11 seats, according to the poll. The New Democrats would come in second, with 27 per cent, and the PCs would win with 44 per cent.

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“It seems that Ontarians are not so much accepting Doug Ford and his leadership as they are rejecting the other alternatives,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

While the PCs have a shot at winning the June 7 election, they didn’t get a “bounce,” or uptick in support, as traditionally happens with a leadership result, Bozinoff said.

“If it hadn’t been such an awkward ending, they would have gotten a bounce in the polls,” he said, referring to a tumultuous leadership contest and a heated ballot dispute at the party convention Saturday.

The PCs are actually down five points from the Forum Poll’s last survey, conducted in mid-February, just after former leader Patrick Brown announced he’d be joining the race to reclaim his old job, Bozinoff said. (Brown later dropped out of the race.) Then, 49 per cent of Ontario voters said they’d vote Conservative.

The PCs need to secure 40 per cent of votes to win a majority, and they should be concerned about having Ford as their leader, Bozinoff said.

“Doug Ford is a divisive figure,” he said. “His disapproval rating is already high and he has been leader for only a day.”

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Survey participants most likely to approve of Ford’s leadership included males; those between 35 and 54 years of age; Toronto residents; and PC supporters, the Forum Poll reported.

Groups most likely to disapprove of Ford included females; those between 55 and 64 years of age; those living in the 905 region; and Liberal supporters.

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Bozinoff warned that Ford’s socially conservative leadership campaign rhetoric (on the subject of abortion, for example) could cause trouble for the party later on.

“We know in the past, you need to be centre (on the political spectrum) to win Ontario,” he said.

Forty-eight per cent of Ontario voters said having Ford as party leader makes them somewhat or much less likely to vote PC, according to the poll. A quarter said it wouldn’t impact their decision and 20 per cent said they’re somewhat or much more likely to vote PC because of Ford.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate, plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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