The former prime minister John Howard says he senses “a clear mood change in the community”, with people turning back towards the Turnbull government, but pulling off a victory over Labor at the coming byelections would be “something approaching a political earthquake”.

Howard continued the theme of unity that has flowed through Liberal party leadership speeches at its 60th national council – which also voted overwhelmingly on Saturday to privatise the ABC as conservative anger at the public broadcaster continues to be a political flashpoint.

In a non-binding motion put forward by the Young Liberal Movement, members called for the full privatisation of the ABC, “except for services into regional areas that are not commercially viable”.

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The Institute of Public Affairs has been increasing the volume on its calls to sell off Aunty, which it considers to be “a $1 billion public policy initiative that is increasingly out of date”.

In calling for the sell-off, the council was told “high sentimentality is no justification for preserving the status quo”.

There was no dissent from the room, and no count was needed for the vote.

Speaking about the party’s fortunes, Howard acknowledged that the road had been rocky for the Turnbull government.



“I think Malcolm Turnbull will win the next election, I think things are going better now than they have been for the last six months,” he said.

“There’s no point in pretending we haven’t had a few ups and downs, and haven’t been behind in the polls.”

But he believed the tide was turning and was buoyed by Labor’s comparatively low primary vote. He said that when the government changed hands in 1996, 2007 and 2013, the opposition parties had been polling in the mid-40s in the year or so before the elections.

“The Labor primary vote has been stuck below 40 per cent for a very long time,” Howard said.



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“That is a salutary reminder, although there may be irritation and disappointment with us, there is no enthusiasm for the replacement.”

In a news conference following his speech, Howard warmed to his theme of Turnbull’s improved political fortunes, but would not be drawn further on whether the prime minister was receiving the same level of support and unity as he did previously.

“All political parties have balance and those sorts of things. I think the government’s position is strengthening. It won’t be easy, but there has been a clear mood change in the community,” he said.

He put that down to Bill Shorten’s “very leftwing agenda”.

“I studied politics for a long time and the sort of leftwing populism he is embracing now is a throwback and I don’t think the public likes the class warfare,” he said.

“We have always had income differences in our country, and that is unavoidable, but providing people earning high incomes do it honestly and pay their taxes, there is no reason why they shouldn’t be entitled to aspire to do that. More Australians than Mr Shorten thinks do aspire to do better, and I think is a big mistake he is making.”

Coalition ahead in byelection seats of Longman and Braddon, poll finds Read more

Howard also declined to say whether he believed the Liberal party should continue making preference deals with One Nation, after the loss of the WA and Queensland state elections.

But despite what he perceived to be a shift towards the government on a macro level, he did not think the party would win the 28 July Braddon or Longman byelections.

“The government’s chances in Longman and Braddon are very tough, very remote,” he said.

“Government’s don’t win byelections ... 1920, [was the last time a government won a byelection] I think it was in Kalgoorlie in very special circumstances ... so I think it is very hard and tough and unlikely. Let’s face it – people don’t normally award byelections to incumbent governments and I think people who are saying otherwise are trying to mitigate – or tamper with expectations.

“The expectations must be that Labor will retain both Longman and Braddon – that is the expectation. Obviously we will work hard and if we were to pull either or both of them off, that would be fantastic. That will be something approaching a political earthquake.”

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But he said the ramifications for Labor, if the government did take one of the seats, would put Shorten’s leadership under threat.

“I think if Labor does badly in these byelections, of course there will be questions about Mr Shorten’s leadership.

“When you are in opposition for a lengthy period of time, there are always questions about your leadership. I could write a PhD on that.”



The communications minister, Mitch Fifield, who has made six complaints in almost as many months against the ABC over its content, most recently over analysis that the super Saturday byelection date was a political decision, said it was not government policy to privatise the ABC.



Fifield is attempting to change the ABC act to include the words “fair and balanced” into its charter, after striking a deal with One Nation over its media ownership laws.

The ABC has been under sustained attack from conservatives, including One Nation and Cory Bernardi, as well as elements of the Liberal party, which accuses the broadcaster of bias.

The government’s most recent budget froze the ABC’s funding at its current levels, which amounted to a $84m funding cut, with some of the savings redirected to a Captain Cook memorial in Scott Morrison’s electorate

The Abbott government cut $254m in 2014, while a further $28m was slashed in 2016. It is estimated the broadcaster has lost 800 jobs since the Coalition took government in 2013.

Labor has vowed to return the $84m indexation funding cut, if elected, as the opposition increases its advocacy for the ABC, in the face of conservative attacks.

In a separate motion, the council also voted to subject SBS to a funding review.

It was also overwhelmingly supported.