New polling data don’t suggest Howard Schultz, the billionaire ex-CEO of Starbucks, could do more than play spoiler in the 2020 presidential race. | Ted S. Warren/AP Photo 2020 Elections Poll: Democrats have reason to fret Schultz The findings explain why Democrats have argued that Howard Schultz's independent candidacy could hurt their party's 2020 hopes.

Democrats have broken into a panic over Howard Schultz's talk of an independent bid for president. A new poll suggests they have reason to be worried.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows anti-Trump and Democratic voters are more open to supporting third-party candidates than Republicans are — evidence supporting the prominent Democrats who spent the last week warning that a credible, well-funded independent candidate could improve President Donald Trump’s chances of reelection.


While only 26 percent of voters who approve of Trump's job performance as president said they were very or somewhat likely to consider a third-party candidate, a larger percentage of Trump disapprovers, 41 percent, said they would consider voting for an independent. By party, nearly a third of Democrats, 31 percent, say they would consider a third-party candidate, compared with 25 percent of Republicans who indicated they would consider voting for someone other than the two major-party nominees.

But the data don’t suggest Schultz, the billionaire ex-CEO of Starbucks, could do more than play spoiler in the 2020 presidential race. While 35 percent of all voters in the poll said they would consider a third-party candidate, only 12 percent said they’d be very likely to look outside the two major parties. And survey data and experts alike dispute Schultz’s rationale for his possible campaign: that a critical mass of unrepresented voters in the political center could be marshaled into an electoral majority by a moderate voice.

“There’s a common misperception that independents are moderate,” said Dan Schnur, a strategist for the late Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2000 who later ran unsuccessfully for California secretary of state as an independent. “Most independents aren’t any more centrist than traditional partisans. Rather, they’ve made the decision to switch because of a hostility or disdain for the way politics is practiced.”

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Who were the voters most open to a third-party candidacy? Independents (49 percent were very or somewhat likely to consider an independent candidate) and self-described moderates (42 percent) were more likely to consider voting for a candidate outside of the two major parties. Younger voters were more likely to vote third party than were older voters.

Schultz is a week into a campaign trial balloon and book tour that began last Sunday on "60 Minutes." He is far from a household name, but if he were to run, Schultz would have the money to get his message in front of voters of all stripes.

Yet, despite the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showing more than a third of the electorate willing to consider an independent candidate, recent history shows the vast majority sticks with the two major parties.

Since 2000, only 2.7 percent of votes for president in all 50 states and the District of Columbia have been cast for third-party candidates. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson — a onetime Republican who ran as a Libertarian — received 3.3 percent of the vote in 2016, which is the high-water mark for an independent over the past five elections.

Texas billionaire Ross Perot may be a closer comparison for Schultz. Perot spent $64 million of his own money on his on-again, off-again 1992 bid, receiving 18.9 percent of the vote. And while that was the greatest popular-vote share of any third-party candidate in the past 80 years, Perot didn’t win a single state or electoral vote.

“On paper, there is a theory by which you could put together a coalition of [independent voters] to run as a third-party candidate,” said Matt Bennett of the center-left group Third Way. “The problem is, elections don’t happen on paper.”

“There is a guy who is literally carved into Mount Rushmore who couldn’t win as an independent,” Bennett added, referring to Theodore Roosevelt’s unsuccessful run as a minor-party candidate in 1912. “If Teddy Roosevelt can’t win as a third-party candidate, you can’t do it. It can’t be done.”

Schultz says, if he runs, he “will run as a centrist independent outside of the two-party system,” betting that he could appeal to voters who don’t identify with either party. But experts say independent voters aren’t necessarily more moderate than admitted partisans, so a down-the-middle candidate wouldn’t necessarily marshal the entire voting bloc.

Independents are “essentially people who actually have fairly consistent preferences for one party over the other,” said Yanna Krupnikov, a professor at Stony Brook University and co-author of “Independent Politics: How American Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction,” a book about independent voters. “We found no evidence that these people were any more moderate than the people who call themselves partisans.”

But Schultz could still play a role in deciding the winner in 2020. According to a POLITICO analysis, while independents have received 2.7 percent of the national vote since 2000, they have run up higher numbers in most of the states west of the Mississippi River, and underperformed in the east — with the exception of New England.

Schultz, or another credible independent, might tilt the outcome in a state like Colorado, a perennial battleground where 4.2 percent of votes have gone to third-party candidates since 2000. In Nevada, other candidates — along with the state’s unique, “None of these candidates” ballot option — have garnered 3.4 percent of the vote over that time.

An independent who peels votes away from the Democratic nominee could also put two once-competitive, blue-leaning states in play: New Mexico and Oregon. In New Mexico, which was contested by both parties as recently as 2008, independents have received 4.5 percent of the vote in the past five elections. In Oregon, which George W. Bush lost narrowly in 2000 and 2004, 5.1 percent of votes have been won by independents.

“Generally speaking, when you have a competitive race here, you usually get 6 [percent] or 7 percent voting for somebody else but the major-party candidates,” said Bob Moore, a Republican pollster in Oregon who said the state’s distance from the media centers of New York and Washington breeds an independent spirit.

Moore said a Schultz candidacy could put in Oregon in play in the general election if Democrats nominate a more liberal candidate next year. “If they nominate Joe Biden, I would say no,” he said. “But if they nominate Elizabeth Warren … I would say yes.”

Independents don’t have the same track record of success in Florida, the nation’s largest swing state. Since 2000 — when votes for third-party candidates like Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan may have tipped the outcome — just 1.6 percent of votes for president in Florida have gone outside the two major parties. In 2016, Florida gave 3.2 percent of its votes to third-party candidates, far fewer than the 5.7 percent independents won nationally.

But in a razor-close state like Florida, every vote matters. But Steve Schale, a Tallahassee-based Democratic strategist who ran Barack Obama’s Florida efforts in the 2008 campaign, said voters in the state know their votes are pivotal and are less likely to consider independent candidates.

“We don’t have the luxury of those options,” said Schale.

David Siders contributed to this report.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: https://politi.co/2SmYZoZ | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2SpcSTz