Houston Texans (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings 10/9/16 1pm EST

The Texans’ D vs the Vikings’ O will determine the margin of victory for the Vikings.

For the purpose of this breakdown, I ignored the Texans game against the Patriots. That game was about special teams, and I am interested in the Texans’ defense. Watching the Texans in week 1, 2, and 4, it is apparent that the Texans run a lot of man coverage on defense. This is especially true when the offense is on schedule, or close to on schedule. I’m defining on schedule as 1st and 10 or less, 2nd and 6 or less and 3rd and 4 or less.

This definition of on schedule is generally consistent with the offense producing at least one successful play prior to third down in a given series. When defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has his charges up against an offense that is on schedule, he is using man coverage more often than not. Based on my viewing of the game film, I would guess man coverage is used about 65% of the time when the offense is on schedule.

Here the Bears have a 3rd and 2. They are on schedule. They come out in a 3x1 set in 11 personnel. The Texans line up in press man.

The interesting thing to me about the Texans man coverage is that their corners don’t match up on the same receiver over and over. Kevin Johnson lined up on Kevin White, Alshon Jeffery, and Eddie Royal in this game. I expect to see him lined up against every Viking WR on Sunday.

On 2nd and 5 the Chiefs come out in 12 personnel. The Texans make no move to conceal that they are playing man coverage.

Chris Conley uses a speed out to pick up the first down against Kareem Jackson.

The Chiefs were able to continue their success on the first and 10 play below. Per ITP, a great way to attack man coverage is to run the ball outside the tackles.

The option play is successful in beating the defense to the edge and picking up the first down.

The above gifs display the tendency on the Texans defense to employ man coverage when the offense is on schedule. Mere awareness of that tendency is not enough to exploit the defense consistently. In order to do that, the Vikings will have to win matchups along the offensive line starting with number 90, Jadeveon Clowney.

Jadeveon Clowney is a problem for offenses. He can create havoc by himself or in tandem with other players. He is a force in the running game and in the passing game. On this play, it is 3rd and 5. The Tennessee offense is close to on schedule. The Texans, playing to their tendency, are in man coverage.

The Titan receivers are unable to shake loose in the middle of the field, and Clowney rushes straight through Jack Conklin to force the interception.

On this play against the Chiefs, it’s the third quarter and the Chiefs have picked up on the Texans tendency to play man coverage. The offensive line doubles Clowney after Whitney Mercilus drops out of his rush threat, and Benardrick McKinney comes free while the rest of the Texans D plays zone behind him.

The Chiefs were expecting McKinney to be in man to man coverage, and Mercilus to rush. They lucked into a double team on Clowney, and still let a man rush free to Alex Smith.

During the Titans game the man to man coverage pattern was seemingly even more pronounced. It seemed like every time a Titans receiver went in motion; a Texans defender was following them across the formation. Mike Mularkey was able to scheme a couple of plays that were effective against the Texans matchups.

Here it’s second and seven. The offense is close to being on schedule. Rishard Matthews is lined up on the outside of a 3x1 set to the top of the formation. The Texans are in man coverage. TE Jalston Fowler runs into the flat and seeing that route, Kareem Jackson loses sight of Matthews for a split second just as Matthews is finishing selling the out route.

Matthews breaks off the out route and turns up field. Mariota hits him for a 60 yard gain.

Here it’s first and ten immediately following the above play. The Titans loaded backfield made it difficult for me to assess whether or not the Texans were in man to man or zone coverage, but look at the linebackers. They are flat footed at the snap, trying to determine where their responsibility in coverage is running. I determined they’re in man coverage.

The Titans did a nice job of identifying the Texans tendencies and putting their players in a position to exploit them.

On Friday, Stefon Diggs was listed as doubtful for the Vikings. He is their most consistent receiver beating man coverage. His suddenness has allowed him to get open against some of the best corners in the game. He will be missed if he can’t go Sunday.

The next best option in the passing game for Minnesota is Kyle Rudolph. The Texans have been hit or miss against tight ends so far this season. Rudolph will have to win consistently to give Sam Bradford an outlet. Jet sweeps to Cordarrelle Patterson or Jerick McKinnon could also be effective against this Texans team. I believe the Texans will stick with their propensity to play man coverage against a Viking team without their best receiver. The Vikings would do well to attempt to exploit that.

From a gambling standpoint, I think the loss of Diggs will be too much for the Vikings offense to overcome to cover the spread. I think the Vikings will win, but not by more than a touchdown.

Vikings 22 Texans 17