After the gunfire come the calls for more policing.

As the community surrounding Danforth Ave. slowly returns to its lively character after the deadly shooting Sunday night, albeit with added signs of solemnity, policy-makers are debating whether police need more resources to protect the city.

On Tuesday evening, Toronto city councillors approved a five-year, $44-million violence reduction plan, which relies on unsecured funding from senior governments. It calls for investments in community supports and increased enforcement — including 200 additional officers previously announced by Mayor John Tory and police Chief Mark Saunders.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford called Monday for a portion of the province’s mental health support budget to go to police.

The claim that Toronto needs more law enforcement resources has long been supported by members of the police union. Toronto Police Association president Mike McCormack has referred to a “police staffing crisis,” saying officers face burnout from overwork caused by thinning ranks and budget cuts.

But some advocates and experts say that’s short-sighted, and better community supports would be more effective at preventing crime than adding more officers.

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Data from major urban centres across Canada — 2017 figures were released this week — shows the correlation between the number of police officers per 100,000 residents and crime severity are tenuous, if present at all.

Generally, crime as measured by Statistics Canada’s crime severity index has gone down in Toronto, Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver since 2000, even as the size of the police forces have fluctuated. The index is a weighted measure that includes both the frequency and severity of crime, measured against Canada in 2006 as a baseline.

When looking only at firearm offences — any criminal charge involving pointing or shooting a gun — the relationship to the number of officers is even weaker. The data for Vancouver and Edmonton showed almost no connection between the two factors.

The link seems stronger in Toronto, at least recently. The number of police officers per 100,000 residents dropped from 215.8 in 2011 down to 180 last year. At the same time, firearm offences rose from 4.11 offences per 100,000 residents to 8.69 offences. Yet, prior to 2011, there was little correlation.

The differences show that any connection between the factors is far from clear-cut.

Bryan Kinney, an associate professor at Simon Fraser University’s department of criminology who studies crime prevention and reduction, said local factors play a major role. The presence of organized crime, the way polices forces are organized and the way officers track crimes in different cities can all have an impact, he said.

Kinney added that the effect of adding police officers would depend on how well-resourced a police force was to begin with.

“If we were massively underpoliced, the next 100 officers could be really useful,” he said.

But he doesn’t think that’s the case in Canada’s big cities. If there’s a need for more officers, he said, it would be because handling high-profile cases costs an increasing amount of time and resources.

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“There’s a current really high-profile effort to try to understand gang-related offences and shootings,” he said.

Halifax

Halifax has an above-average number of police officers per 100,000 people, at 223, as of last year. The municipality’s crime severity index has fallen 50 per cent since 2006, from more than 120 in 2006 to 61 in 2016.

There have been spikes in the number of homicides over that time period. For instance, 2011 was an especially violent year in the municipality, with 18 homicides; more recently there were 15 in 2016, including three in just one week.

Toronto

Toronto has seen an overall decrease in police officers per 100,000 people over time. The number was 201 in 2000, decreasing to 189 by 2016. At the same time, crime severity dropped seven points to 56. Firearm offences per 100,000 people dropped from 2000-2005, stayed steady until 2014 at around 4, then rose to 8.69 in 2017. The city is currently on track for the fourth straight yearly increase in shootings.

Calgary

Before 2015, crime in Calgary had been on the decline for more than a decade. But that year, it suddenly spiked amid the beginning of the opioid crisis and a recession in Alberta’s oilpatch. The city’s crime severity index value jumped 18 points, the largest increase of any municipality across Canada. A spate of gun violence and 37 homicides rattled residents, with police linking the shootings to an increase in gang and drug activity.

Edmonton

Crime severity has dropped dramatically in Edmonton since 2000, but in recent years the city has seen a higher-than-average rate of gun violence. Since 2012, the rate of gun violations per 100,000 people per year has been on the rise, peaking at 7.73 in 2015. The police chief has made a number of calls for additional officers for particular tasks, including online crime enforcement.

Vancouver

Over the last 20 years, Vancouver has recorded higher crime severity rates than other provinces — a difference Kinney suspects can be explained by regional differences in data collection. After 2004, the index dropped dramatically at around the same time the number of police per 100,000 people increased at a more moderate rate. Though crime has gone down over time, 2017 had the highest number of homicides since 2009, at 17.

With files from Emma McIntosh, Haley Ryan, Jennifer Pagliaro, Wendy Gillis, and Kevin Maimann

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