How does Brexit affect the US? Will the UK really leave the EU? Who will replace David Cameron? And what does the Queen think? Paul Owen explains it all

Guardian US asked for questions from American readers on the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. Here are some of your questions, plus a few from the Guardian US staff, and our answers



In what way will Brexit affect the US?



As my colleague Dan Roberts explains, there are a number of ways Britain’s decision to leave the EU will affect the US – all of them bad. The IMF has warned that Brexit could knock half a percentage point off the output of all advanced economies by 2019, and turmoil in the stock and currency markets has already wiped $2tn off stocks and sent the pound to its lowest level since 1985. The EU could further unravel, threatening a relative anchor of diplomatic stability; US corporations may want to leave London; shared Anglo-US legal and free-market principles could be weakened internationally; and populism in the US could get a shot in the arm.

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Will there really be a Brexit? As I understand it there is no automatic procedure to leave EU. Moreover, isn’t it true the UK parliament is not compelled to trigger the process?



You’re right. The outgoing prime minister, David Cameron, in the speech announcing his resignation left the task to his successor, saying it was more appropriate for the next PM to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which begins the formal withdrawal. The referendum has no legal force and it is possible that the next PM could ignore it – especiallysince fewer than a third of MPs in parliament back leaving – but that would be an anti-democratic move, without precedent, and probably unthinkable given the clear public vote .

Facebook Twitter Pinterest David Cameron, UK prime minister who resigned after Britain voted to leave the EU. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images

In addition, EU leaders have made clear that they want the UK to get out as quickly as possible in order to minimise the chaos and instability for both sides. If the UK collapses into economic, political and civil disorder, it is possible that a new government could be elected on a platform of remaining in the EU to end the turmoil, but that scenario enters wishful-thinking territory for the remain side. It is almost certain that the UK really will exit.

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How long could it realistically take, and is the Brexit vote more symbolic rather than just a clean break?



The process to leave the EU is meant to take two years once article 50 has been triggered. If negotiations have not concluded by then, the UK gets thrown out without a deal and trade goes back to World Trade Organisation rules, meaning the UK faces tariffs on all goods it sells to the EU. The EU could also agree to prolong negotiations.

Those limits may be an incentive for the next prime minister to conduct negotiations before triggering article 50, to make sure a good deal is struck without the two-year deadline hanging over his or her head. So it’s unclear how long the process could really take – years seem likely.

It’s equally unclear how much of a clean break the UK would make with its former partners. London will aim to cherry-pick as many of the parts of the EU it sees as beneficial as possible – access to the common market, for example, but not free movement of people – but this may not be easy to achieve. Norway, a non-EU European country often cited by leave campaigners as a model to follow, has access to the common market but is not exempt from free movement of people and has higher per capita immigration than the UK.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Remain supporters react as the EU referendum results are announced. Photograph: Rob Stothard/Getty Images

The EU may not play ball, for fear of encouraging separatist movements in other EU states. Far-right leaders in France, Sweden, Greece, the Netherlands and Denmark have already called for their own in/out votes.

Could the UK rejoin the EU at some stage?

In theory, but the process would take years, and Britain would lose all the perks and exemptions it has agreed to over the years – for example it would have to join the euro and the Schengen passport-free zone. A gradual and less formal reintegration by a future pro-European government might be more likely.

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Who will replace David Cameron if/when he resigns? How will this be decided?



Cameron has pledged to stay on until the autumn to “steady the ship” he steered into the rocks. The next prime minister will be chosen by the governing party, the Conservatives, from among their members of parliament (MPs).

Conservative MPs will get a list of names down to two, then the 150,000 members of the party will have the final say. Whether the MPs allow Cameron to stay in power until October, or force the process to begin earlier, remains to be seen. The former mayor of London, Boris Johnson – a charismatic but shifty politician who has, it appears, successfully bet his career on backing the leave side – is the favourite.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Boris Johnson, former mayor of London and Brexit supporter. Photograph: Scott Heppell/AFP/Getty Images

Theresa May, the home secretary, who campaigned for remain but has not made enemies of the Brexit camp, may pitch herself as a serious alternative to Johnson and a bridge between the two sides. Pro-Brexit MPs such as Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel and Dominic Raab have all also been named as possible contenders. George Osborne, the chancellor (finance minister), has, like his old boss Cameron, seen his political career go up in flames along with Britain’s EU membership.

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Why did Cameron agree to a vote if he didn’t want to leave the EU?



Good question. He did it because his party has been split on the issue for decades, and the United Kingdom Independence party (Ukip) seemed to be eating away at its vote. But many analysts believe that when he promised the vote, before the 2015 election, he expected to have to govern in coalition with the centrist Liberal Democrats, who would have forced him to abandon the referendum pledge. The Liberal Democrats suffered huge losses in the election, and Cameron stood alone with his promise.

This led to the strange situation where Cameron, who warned the decision could risk European war and “put a bomb under our economy”, willingly set in train a series of events leading to exit. Critics charge that he irresponsibly put party management above the good of the country.

Who is Nigel Farage and what is Ukip? Is Farage the equivalent of the USA’s Donald Trump?



Nigel Farage is a populist politician whose United Kingdom Independence party (Ukip) has campaigned almost exclusively on opposition to the EU, and harped on the issue of immigration from eastern Europe. Farage is certainly a rabble-rouser who appeals to the public’s worst instincts, and in that somewhat resembles Trump.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence party. Photograph: Niklas Halle'N/AFP/Getty Images

But he is much more a single-issue campaigner than a candidate to lead his country. In some ways Boris Johnson – as a much mocked, charismatic figure who plays fast and loose with the facts – is more like Trump, and like Trump, he may now overcome the disbelieving political and media elite and rise to the top of his party.

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Will this vote break up the EU?



The question every EU leader must be asking themselves right now. Martin Schulz, the president of the European parliament, said on Friday that the EU wanted to rush the UK out the door. As mentioned above, far-right parties are pushing for their own referendums in France, Sweden, Greece, the Netherlands and Denmark. A leaked German document suggests Berlin would drive a hard bargain in negotiations with the UK to “avoid offering false incentives for other member states when settling on new arrangements”. The document also suggests the EU would give “no automatic access to the single market”, a move obviously designed to deter other states from pushing to leave themselves.

Given the debt crisis that has consumed the bloc since 2009, its more recent struggles with destabilising immigration from Syria and elsewhere, and the rise of the far-right and insurgent populists across the continent, it is difficult to confidently predict how cohesive the European Union will be once Britain has gone.

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Will Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK now?



It’s possible that Scotland might. In 2014 the country voted 55-45% not to split from the UK. But on Thursday it voted firmly to remain in the EU – 62% to 38% – even as the UK as a whole voted to leave. Nicola Sturgeon, the nationalist first minister, called that a “democratic outrage”, put a second referendum on the table, and said she will directly lobby EU states for support to keep Scotland in the bloc.

Edinburgh would need London’s permission to hold an official referendum, and Cameron’s successor may feel he or she is already dealing with too much constitutional chaos to allow a new Scottish vote. Polls in Scotland do not show a majority for independence at the moment, although that may now change. The EU has been intentionally vague about whether an independent Scotland could remain a member or rejoin – many of its members, such as Spain, want to dissuade their own separatist movements.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister and leader of the Scottish National party. Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

Northern Ireland is an even more complex case. Both Britain and Ireland will be desperate not to unpick the delicate power-sharing agreement that brought peace to the territory in 1998. While Sinn Féin, the political wing of the IRA, immediately called for a referendum on Irish unity on Friday, under peace process rules this can only happen if a majority of political representatives of both communities (pro-British Protestant unionists and pro-Irish Catholic nationalists) in Northern Ireland demand it. It is vanishingly unlikely that the unionists would back such a referendum.

On a less serious note, there have been calls for London, which voted to remain, to break away as a Singapore-style city-state, but given it is the capital and home to most major industries this seems like a fantasy. The United Kingdom was formed from Great Britain and Scotland in 1707; Ireland was added in 1801 and most of it left in 1922. The UK would still exist if Scotland and Northern Ireland left, but in diminished form: England, Wales and various small islands.



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Is [Brexit the result of] an identity/economic crisis because of the out of control refugees coming in?



It does seem that immigration was a key issue for manyleave voters. Cameron had repeatedly promised to get immigration down to the tens of thousands, but it remained at 330,000 for the year 2015, 184,000 of whom was from the EU. Yet as my colleague Alan Travis points out: “Those who have experienced the highest levels of migration are the least anxious about it. The highest levels of remain voters were in areas of highest net migration, while some of the strongest leave areas have had the fewest recent new immigrants.”

There is confusion over what Brexit leaders want the UK immigration system to look like, and little clarity on what will happen to EU citizens living in Britain and British citizens on the continent.

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How will exiting the EU help people with jobs? Housing?



In terms of jobs, pro-leave campaigners believe that by shutting the door to EU immigrants there will be more jobs for people born in the UK. Remain campaigners maintained that since immigrants boost the economy, more jobs were created overall. Those working in sectors that trade with the EU are likely to suffer directly.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Housing prices could fall as a result of Brexit. Photograph: Anthony Devlin/PA

House prices could fall, which help those unable to afford one now, but might trap others in negative equity. Most economists agree that the likely downturnfrom the years of protracted Brexit negotiations will not benefit many British workers.

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What does the Queen think of all this – and could she stop Brexit?



By convention the Queen stays out of politics and does not vote. The Sun newspaper infamously claimed she “backs Brexit” in March, based on an anonymous source, who, even if correct, only revealed Eurosceptic feelings, rather than a desire to actually leave the EU. A press watchdog ruled the headline “misleading”. She was also reported to have asked dinner companions before Thursday’s vote: “Give me three good reasons why Britain should be part of Europe.”

Cameron said on Friday morning that he had informed the Queen of his decision to resign, but she has been silent publicly on Brexit. In a constitutional monarchy like Britain’s, the Queen’s powers are delegated to ministers and parliament. Triggering article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and setting Brexit in train is a matter of the royal prerogative, exercised through the prime minister. It would cause a constitutional crisis were she to attempt to block it. For context, the last time royal assent was refused for a piece of legislation was in 1707.

Does that mean the UK may get their guns back?



No, the gun ban was a UK law introduced after the massacre of 16 children and a teacher in Dunblane, Scotland, in 1996. There is no political pressure to reopen the issue, although Ukip leader Nigel Farage has called the ban “ludicrous”.