Voters in eight states go to the polls Tuesday for the biggest single primary day of 2018. But the main event on this super Tuesday is in California.

That’s not just because California is the nation’s largest state, home to 53 congressional districts, including some of the most competitive in the country. Tuesday’s California primaries are potentially make-or-break contests for both parties.


The state’s “top-two” primary system — in which the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election — means that either party could watch its hopes in important races evaporate. Democrats are targeting seven Republican-held House districts where Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in 2016. But they fear that large, diffuse candidate fields in some districts could result in two Republicans qualifying for the November ballot.

Republicans, meanwhile, have scrambled to avoid being locked out at the top of the ticket in the state’s open governor’s race.

Outside California, there are a critical GOP Senate primary, two House Republicans gunning for statewide office and a handful of congressional primaries that will provide more clues about the direction of both parties in the Trump era.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Alabama, Mississippi and New Jersey; 9 p.m. in New Mexico and South Dakota; 10 p.m. in Iowa and Montana; and 11 p.m. in California.

Here are Politico’s eight things to watch as the results come in:

Democratic lockouts

Nowhere will the state’s “top-two” system have more of a national imprint than in seven key congressional races — districts that have leaned Republican this decade, but voted for Clinton in 2016. These races are critical to Democrats’ hopes, but the districts could vanish from the battlefield five months before Election Day if Republicans finish first and second on Tuesday.

It’s an acute concern in two Southern California districts: The seats currently held by retiring Reps. Darrell Issa, the 49th Congressional District, and Ed Royce, in the 39th. Each retirement brought forth a mass of candidates — and the elbow-throwing among Democrats has national and state party leaders worried that both contests could end up with Republican-vs.-Republican general election contests. Democrats also worry about the 48th District seat currently held by GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher.





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National Democratic groups, like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC, have spent millions on complex maneuvers meant to boost the party’s chances of qualifying for the general election. In some districts, that’s meant picking a favorite Democrat, like Gil Cisneros in the 39th District. In others, it’s meant attacking Republicans who have a shot at a second-place finish.

Large numbers of Democrats are also fighting for the No. 2 spots in districts held by Reps. Jeff Denham, the 10th, Steve Knight the 25th and Mimi Walters the 45th.

One district where Democrats don’t have to sweat a competitive primary: the 21st, held by Republican David Valadao since 2012. Valadao won by 14 points in 2016 — even though Clinton trounced Trump by 16 points at the top of the ticket. Tuesday’s primary will be a test of Valadao’s persistence with Trump in the White House: He faces Democrat TJ Cox in a head-to-head matchup that will establish a baseline for the race ahead of the November general election.



2016 reruns

The jujitsu of the top two primary is leading national Democrats to spurn candidates they were touting just two years ago.

Outside groups, including the DCCC, dropped more than $3 million building up Doug Applegate in 2016 — but Applegate came up short against Issa, losing by just over 1,600 votes in a district that Clinton won by more than 7 points.

Applegate opted to run again in 2018, but he hasn’t been endorsed by the DCCC. Instead, Applegate is running in a tight race against three other Democratic candidates, all spending heavily to advance in the general election.

“I feel a bit like I got invited to the dance, but I’m still waiting for them to come pick me up,” Applegate said in an interview with Politico. “When your own party basically says, ‘Yeah, yeah, yeah — step aside, we’ve got better people,’ of course you’re going to be ticked off,” adding that he wasn’t ever explicitly asked to leave the race.



Just north of Los Angeles, Bryan Caforio, an attorney, also wasn’t added to the committee’s “Red to Blue” list, as he was in 2016 when he ran against Knight. Now, Caforio is locked in a nasty, increasingly personal battle against Katie Hill, a nonprofit executive who’s supported by EMILY’s List.

Local Democrats argue that neither Applegate, nor Caforio, won in 2016, so other candidates might be stronger. But both may yet triumph on Tuesday after “three years of name recognition that’s been built up,” Applegate said. “I’d take my hand on this one.”

Republicans grasp for statewide relevance

Once billed as a marquee contest to replace termed-out Gov. Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is all but certain to win by a large margin on Tuesday. The race to watch here is for second place.

In recent polls, a relatively low-profile Republican, John Cox, has been outpacing former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in that contest, with Cox appearing likely to advance to the general election. Cox has been boosted in recent weeks by a Twitter endorsement from Trump, who is seeking to channel GOP voters toward one candidate.

If Villaraigosa, a Democrat, can overcome Cox and finish second, expect a robust campaign between Newsom and Villaraigosa in the fall. But if Cox advances, the heavily Democratic makeup of California’s voter registration all but ensures the race is over.

Republicans would be happy to have a candidate on the ballot, even if Cox has little chance against Newsom. The GOP has fretted that a Democrat-vs.-Democrat race at the top of the ticket could hurt the party down-ballot.

In California’s Senate race, former Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, a progressive Democrat, generated national attention for his insurgent campaign to unseat Sen. Dianne Feinstein. She is crushing him in the polls, however, and de León has struggled to raise money.

Now, it is unclear whether de León will even advance to face Feinstein in the general election. Recent polls suggest it is possible that a largely unknown Republican could overtake him on Tuesday.

How big is California’s ‘blue wave?‘

There are more registered Democrats in solidly blue California than any other state — 8.4 million — and the state GOP last week recently reached a dubious watershed moment, falling to third party status behind independent voters.

With Trump’s approval ratings in the cellar in California, and party leaders eagerly seizing the “state of resistance” banner, the size and passion of Democratic turnout Tuesday in California could be a key indicator of the prospects for a “blue wave” across the nation in November.

House races in California drew millions in independent expenditures designed to energize Democratic voters — making contests like that in the 49th Congressional District to replace Rep. Darrell Issa the most expensive in the nation. And volatile issues like immigration may motivate the fast-growing Latino vote and increasingly influential Asian-American in California, where administration deportation policies have been excoriated by public officials in a state that’s home to more immigrants, legal and undocumented, than any other state.

All you need is a little patience

Mail ballots accounted for 69 percent of the overall vote in the previous midterm primary, in 2014. And voters can have their ballots postmarked as late as Tuesday, so long as they arrive by this Friday.

That means the California vote tabulation process takes weeks to complete. There will likely be a large number of votes counted within hours of the polls’ closing time of 11 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Pacific). But then it’s a whole lot of waiting for the rest of the vote.

The huge number of early votes can lead to quick calls from news organizations monitoring uncompetitive races. But because so many of the candidate fields are so large — and the vote-differences among candidates are likely to be small — expect to wake up Wednesday morning not yet knowing how the general election matchups will shake out in many of the most competitive races.

That means Democrats’ anxiety about potential lockouts in some of the California congressional districts could extend well past Tuesday, and any real analysis of turnout trends will need to wait until all the votes are counted.

Can House Republicans break their losing streak?

The month of May wasn’t kind to House Republicans seeking their party’s nomination for statewide office. Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita were trounced in the Indiana Senate primary by a former one-term state legislator. Rep. Evan Jenkins lost a Senate primary in West Virginia to the state attorney general. Rep. Raúl Labrador’s campaign for Idaho governor fizzled out against the state’s lieutenant governor.

Only Reps. Jim Renacci and Lou Barletta have been successful in winning Senate primaries — in Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively — but neither was especially impressive against lackluster opponents, and both are underdogs in the fall.

Rep. Kristi Noem is hoping to fare better in her campaign for the GOP nomination for governor in South Dakota, but she is locked in a tight race with state Attorney General Marty Jackley. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted for two in-state media outlets in late May found the two candidates running neck-and-neck, with 11 percent of likely primary voters still undecided.

Jackley is trying to use Noem’s congressional tenure — she was first elected in 2010 — against her. “She went to Washington,” a narrator says in Jackley’s most recent ad, which pulls a clip from one of Noem’s congressional campaign ads and highlights the GOP-controlled House’s failure to achieve key goals.

One House Republican is assured victory on Tuesday: New Mexico Rep. Steve Pearce is unopposed in the GOP primary for governor. He was all but assured to face fellow Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham in the general election; Lujan Grisham held a 42-point lead in an Albuquerque Journal poll in late May.

But a series of POLITICO stories about a health-insurance firm Lujan Grisham co-founded and alleged mistakes on her personal financial disclosure have brought the Democratic front-runner negative headlines in the final week before the primary. Her opponents — state Sen. Joseph Cervantes and former media executive Jeff Apodaca — are trying to capitalize, but it may be too late to erase her commanding lead.

Who will take on Jon Tester?

After Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) helped tank the nomination of Ronny Jackson as Veterans Affairs secretary, Republicans crowed that Tester’s seat was rising on the GOP’s target list.

Republicans will find out who will face Tester in the fall on Tuesday, with state Treasurer Matt Rosendale the favorite for the nomination. But Rosendale has struggled to put away his chief opponent: Russell Fagg, a former judge and state legislator. Both Rosendale and the conservative Club for Growth — Rosendale’s chief backer — have attacked Fagg on the airwaves in recent weeks.

The Montana primary isn’t just a measurement of Rosendale’s appeal, it’s also a major test for the Club, which has spent $1.7 million to boost its preferred candidate in the primary. The Club has mostly been successful in its efforts in House races, but Montana represents its greatest investment thus far this cycle.

Will struggling liberals turn things around?

Liberal Democrats have picked up a handful of surprise wins this primary season, but it’s unlikely that they’ll add to their ranks on Tuesday.

In Iowa, Bernie Sanders cut a TV ad and emailed fundraising pitches for Pete D’Alessandro, his 2016 state director who’s running to take on Rep. David Young (R-Iowa). But D’Alessandro, who’s running an unapologetically far-left bid, lags in public polling in the three-way race.

Over in New Jersey‘s 2nd District, Tanzie Youngblood, a retired teacher who supports Medicare for All, is expected to fall well short against state Sen. Jeff Van Drew, a centrist Democrat who’s crushed his opponents in fundraising.

Martha Roby on red alert

If there’s one House incumbent to watch on Tuesday night, it’s Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.), who has spent nearly $1 million so far in her campaign for renomination.

Roby’s political battle began in October 2016, when she announced that she wouldn’t support Trump’s presidential bid after the release of the “Access Hollywood” video. Roby had defeated a local activist in the GOP primary in March 2016 primary, 67 percent to 28 percent.

But that activist, Becky Gerritson, objected to Roby’s stance on Trump and ran a write-in campaign. Roby still won, but the 49 percent of the vote she captured was down substantially from 67 percent two years earlier.

Roby has four primary challengers this time around, including a familiar name: former Rep. Bobby Bright, whom Roby narrowly defeated in the 2010 general election, when Bright was a Democratic member of Congress. The large field against Roby could set up a mid-July runoff if the incumbent doesn’t earn a majority of the vote on Tuesday.