There has been an outpouring of reflections this year, both here and abroad, on the centenary of the start of the First World War. Much of it recycles old clichés about the war or dwells on the merits and consequences of Australian involvement on the side of the British Empire.

At a time when there is growing debate about the rise of China, the wisdom or otherwise of attempting to 'contain' it and the merits and possible consequences of Australia's alliance with the United States, we would do well to ponder the beginnings of the First World War in at least three comparative respects.

First, we should reflect on Germany's sense of being hemmed in by the Triple Entente (England, France and Russia) compared with China's concerns about being hemmed in by America and its allies.

Second, it took decades of painstaking scholarly inquiry to achieve clarity as to who was to blame for war starting in 1914. In our time, we cannot afford such a luxury. We need much greater clarity in advance, in order to head off destructive conflict.

Third, the cream of German society in 1914, though neither militaristic nor in any way barbarous, tended, on the whole, to see the war from their own government's point of view. This may seem unsurprising, but it has important implications for our time.