Our best guess is that is on track to win in Michigan.

Previous Michigan margins 2012 Obama +9.5 2008 Obama +16.4 2004 Kerry +3.4 2000 Gore +5.1 1996 Clinton +13.2 1992 Clinton +7.4 1988 Bush +7.9 1984 Reagan +19.0 1980 Reagan +6.5

As of , we think about of all votes in Michigan have been counted. Below, estimates for what votes have been counted and what votes remain.

Candidate Estimated votes

Candidate Votes counted Counted pct. Votes remaining Remaining pct Total votes Total pct

For places that have not yet reported all their votes, we make an educated guess based on results so far and what we know about how those places have voted in the past.

Reported Vote Margin About votes have been counted already. leads in that count by about . Estimated Votes Remaining We think votes remain to be counted. We think leads in that vote by about , based on what we know about those counties and the votes counted so far.

Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead.

Here’s how our estimates have changed:

Chance of Winning Michigan

Projected Vote Margin

Estimated vote margin Best guess 5% 50% of outcomes 95%

Once Michigan has counted all its results, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady, our forecast is more trustworthy.

Estimated Percentage of Votes Counted