Some time ago, I had written a very excited post about a bumper monsoon this year. Then, after a very strong start, the monsoon quietened down for a couple of weeks and so did my spirits. Although I trust the IMD and its predictions very much (This is actually one highly competent government agency that does not get much credit), we all know that weather predictions can fail. Unless the rain is actually on the ground and is soaking into the soil, we cannot say for sure.

Truth be told, about two weeks ago, I had a gnawing feeling of nervousness regarding the monsoon. After a rapid charge over Southern and Central India, it seemed that the monsoon had all but stopped. To make things worse, there were niggling reports in the media about how the crucial low pressure areas over Bay of Bengal were still awaited. And I knew that there is supposed to be the whole El Nino thing by September this year.

Let’s be real: if rains had failed this year, no one could have stopped Congress from roaring into power in 2019.

Luckily the law of averages has smiled on us. After back to back failed monsoons in 2014 and 2015, the IMD prediction for 2018 stands vindicated as usual.

Oh what a feast for the eyes. Look at the whole of Maharashtra soaked in plentiful rain. In Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra, the rainfall excess is as much as 20-31%. The rainfall excess is a staggering 41% in Vidarbha and an eye popping 51% in Konkan and Goa.

Gone with this monsoon are the hopes of all the ‘farmer leaders’ of Maharashtra. You vultures are not getting dead bodies this year.

And look at Gujarat, a chronically arid region, which was also opened up a healthy rainfall excess of 2-9%. Gone with it are hopes of Congress of clawing back some seats in rural Gujarat.

Then, there is Madhya Pradesh, which goes to elections later this year. Western MP is bathed all in blue, with a rainfall excess of 20%. Eastern MP has a small deficit of 5%, but that’s well within the ‘green’ zone. Not only is it raining cats and dogs in Madhya Pradesh, the opposition Congress are fighting among themselves like cats and dogs. A huge sigh of relief for Shivraj Singh Chouhan. If Madhya Pradesh had fallen, 2019 was as good as over.

I was really anxious about Chhattisgarh, considering that all reports indicate that BJP is going down in Rajasthan. Two weeks ago, I remember them with a small deficit of around 6%, but now the region has opened up a clear 1% excess, establishing them in the green zone. Wonderful news.

In fact, Rajasthan has seen a huge rainfall surplus of 14-17%. While it will clearly not turn around the result of the election, it might help BJP cross the 70 seat mark. Especially if the PM capitalizes on his dizzying popularity in urban areas.

So far so good. Everything seems to be bearing out the IMD’s prediction that the monsoon will advance slowly but bountifully this year. The Ganga-Brahmaputra belt from Uttar Pradesh in the West to Assam in the East is still awaiting the big rains.

But fear not. The depression has arrived, exactly where we needed it to be. Through Northern Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh.

That line you see is a long track of liberal tears traveling towards Uttar Pradesh.

Let’s hope this year we are blessed with a bounty of rainfall and liberal teardrops. I think I mentioned in an earlier post that liberal tears have the special property of not being salty at all. In fact, there is nothing as sweet as them.