Offensive Success on the x-axis is defined as the ratio between Successful xPG and Positive xPG (the ability of a team to convert offensive possessions into shots). Tidiness on the y-axis is defined as the ratio between Mistake xPG and Negative xPG (the negative value of their turnovers) note: we flipped the y-axis, so Tidiness increases as you go up.

As the Columbus Crew video showed, they accumulate a high amount of Negative xPG without making many costly mistakes. In short, they are “tidy” on the ball. They create space to get forward, but they often lack quality in the final ball resulting in average Offensive Success. For the most part, teams with poor underlying metrics this season, such as Montreal and Minnesota, are generally more “untidy” (low on y-axis). The most “tidy” teams generally play out of the back, like NYCFC and Sporting Kansas City, so they have high Negative xPG, but make few mistakes despite possessing so often in their own third like our Columbus example.

As the New York Red Bulls video showed, they sacrifice tidiness for chance creation. Their games can feel chaotic, but they thrive in that, creating turnovers and Mistake xPG for their opponents while their direct play creates a high amount of shots and Successful xPG for themselves. They tend to have both lower Positive xPG and Negative xPG because they don’t hold onto the ball for long and play the ball as little as possible in risky areas.

Teams in the middle of the graph have had a lot of ups and downs, more downs than ups, with many underachievers here. Real Salt Lake doesn’t make many mistakes but doesn’t do much in the attack either. While this is a view of the entire season, it is also informative to look at xPG metrics from recent games to observe teams’ performance, especially with the upcoming playoff stretch. For example, Matt Doyle wrote, “The Quakes have become much tidier in central midfield since Luis Felipe won the No. 6 spot a month back” in a recent guide to “Rivalry Week” article. With our Tidiness score, we can quantify this observation. Most of the season, San Jose was much more untidy with the ball than league average (blue line with red error band). However, as the season has progressed, and with the addition of Felipe and Guram Kashia, they have improved to the point where they are statistically not different than the league average in Untidiness (see overlap in error bands).

