While the state's unemployment rate remains stubbornly stuck above 9 percent, the safety net for out-of-work Arizonans appears to be unraveling.

Already, 15,000 of the long-term unemployed are losing their weekly unemployment-benefit payments.

If Congress makes more sweeping cuts to jobless benefits later this year, without a surge of new jobs in Arizona, those future cuts could affect more than four times as many people. With a looming reduction in support services, people hunting for work will have fewer resources to tap into.

That's because federal stimulus money that paid for beefed-up services for job hunters, including additional training and job-counseling services, has begun to expire.

From now on, Arizonans who lose their jobs and who qualify for aid would get 79 weeks of unemployment benefits instead of the 99 weeks that became the norm during the recession.

On Monday, state lawmakers rejected Gov. Jan Brewer's call to change a state law that would have allowed 15,000 Arizonans to continue to get the 20 weeks of extra aid, which would have been paid for by the federal government.

Later this year, Congress must decide if it should eliminate an additional 53 weeks of emergency unemployment benefits, also paid for by federal stimulus funds, which expire on Dec. 31. If Congress doesn't renew the benefits, jobless Arizonans would get only the 26 weeks of unemployment benefits that the state provides.

This would have a huge impact in Arizona, both for recipients and in terms of dollars flowing into the economy. Of the 122,620 state residents getting unemployment, nearly 70,000, or about 60 percent, have been out of work more than 26 weeks and are getting federal jobless aid.

More in need

As more Arizonans use up their unemployment benefits, state and local workforce programs expect to see more people walk through their doors, desperate for more help searching for a job.

"I hope that job-creation numbers increase to help these folks," said Stan Flowers, who oversees three One-Stop Career Centers that are part of Phoenix's city-run program for job seekers.

Even without stimulus funds, his program can still help many people get job training, he said, but "if there is no job out there for you with that job training, there you sit."

These recent developments frighten out-of-work Arizonans such as Monica Ward, 40, of Phoenix. The single mother of three has been unsuccessfully looking for a customer-service or data-entry job for months. Ward said she will get her last unemployment check this week because of state lawmakers' decision.

Ward used to make $42,000 a year doing data entry for disability claims, she said. But she has been told she is overqualified for similar work, which, she said, now pays about $25,000 a year. She estimates she has applied for 70 jobs and had 10 job interviews.

"I don't know what to do," added Ward, who said her family survives with a combination of food stamps and unemployment benefits. She fears she eventually will have to move in with her parents.

Workforce programs

The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funneled millions of federal stimulus dollars into Arizona programs that were designed to create jobs and strengthen the safety net for the jobless during the economic downturn.

Under the act, Arizona received $36.4 million, in addition to its usual annual budget of $49.4 million, to divide among the state's local workforce programs.

Metro Phoenix has the state's largest local workforce programs, Maricopa Workforce Connections and Phoenix Workforce Connection.

Each got roughly $8 million in stimulus money to spend over two years in addition to their baseline funding, which is $11 million and $11.5 million, respectively.

During the peak of the recession, the programs used the stimulus money to hire additional staff to handle the surge of new clients and fund youth jobs programs. With the Recovery Act money alone, county and city programs employed a total of 1,978 youths over two years and provided job training to 1,788 adults.

Phoenix used up its federal funds this winter, and Maricopa County representatives say their funding expires June 30. Both Phoenix and Maricopa County have shuttered their youth-employment programs.

Both workforce groups stress that they can still serve the clients with a full menu of services, albeit with smaller budgets.

"The bottom line is we are not slowing down in terms of the people who we are serving," said Patrick Burkhart, who helps oversee the Maricopa County program.

Jobless aid

Because Arizona is designated as a high-unemployment area under a federal formula, local workforce programs got an unexpected, temporary boost in their baseline funding this year.

That helped Maricopa County and Phoenix keep some of the additional staff they hired and will allow them to help more people. The state Legislature's decision this week appears to be the death knell of the final 20 weeks of the 99 weeks of unemployment aid that sustained jobless Arizonans.

Although Brewer supported the move, she did not have enough political support in the GOP-led Legislature. In theory, the Legislature could convene another special session and restart the benefits, but it seems unlikely.

Some state lawmakers were philosophically opposed to continuing the aid - although it cost the state nothing - because they believed the benefits prevent people from aggressively looking for jobs. Others argued it would increase the national debt.

That Arizona debate could be a preview for the looming congressional battle over the 53 weeks of jobless aid.

Many Republican lawmakers want to cut spending and reduce the federal government's debt burden as fast as possible.

Other lawmakers, including many Democrats, are reluctant to cut programs that could hurt the nation's fragile recovery. In April, Arizona created 17,200 jobs and the unemployment rate was 9.3 percent.

Maurice Emsellem of the New York-based National Employment Law Projectpredicted that, ultimately, the jobless benefits will be extended.

During past economic downturns, federal officials have continued to make federal jobless aid available until the national unemployment rate was at about 7 percent.

Now, the national unemployment rate is 9.1 percent.

"So, if anything," Emsellem said, "the fact that we are losing these other sources of stimulus raises the stakes for reauthorizing the unemployment-insurance program."