PHOENIX — In the muddled equation of the Mets’ starting rotation, much of the intrigue surrounds a pitcher who hasn’t arrived yet.

But the consensus among team officials is Steven Matz will be wearing a Mets uniform at some point before the All-Star break.

The fact Matz — a stud pitching prospect at Triple-A Las Vegas — hasn’t been promoted already has raised a few eyebrows even within the organization as the Mets tread water with Jon Niese and Dillon Gee, but general manager Sandy Alderson told The Post there are factors that need to be considered.

Left unsaid was the approaching Super-2 cutoff for arbitration eligibility — the safety date is thought to be around June 20, and the Mets at this point would potentially be sacrificing significant dollars for maybe two starts from the 24-year-old Matz before the cutoff.

But the Mets also want to manage Matz’s innings, which is easier accomplished at Triple-A, to ensure he’s in better position to avoid a shutdown once he joins the Mets’ rotation.

Matz pitched six innings on Friday for Las Vegas and allowed one run over six innings in the loss. Overall, he is 6-4 with a 1.94 ERA in 74¹/₃ innings.

“It’s a process of managing his innings so he could be around 180-185 innings,” Alderson said before the Mets’ 2-1 loss to the Diamondbacks on Saturday night. “We are not looking at this as a minor league season for him.”

But Alderson conceded it’s “very possible” Matz already would be in the major leagues if the Mets didn’t have a logjam in the rotation.

Is there anything the Mets still have to see from Matz in the minor leagues?

“Probably not,” Alderson said.

An organizational source expressed concern the Mets haven’t already promoted Matz, noting the left-hander is dominating the Pacific Coast League — a hitters’ paradise because of the altitude in many locales — and the need for the team to stay afloat in the NL East until injured players can return.

It’s a group on the disabled list that includes David Wright, Daniel Murphy, Travis d’Arnaud, Bobby Parnell and Vic Black.

Manager Terry Collins on Saturday scrapped the team’s new six-man rotation — sending Gee to the bullpen — that had been implemented to help ensure Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard won’t need shutdowns or layoffs during the season.

The Mets continue to dangle Niese and Gee, but interest has been limited, according to an organizational source. Ideally, the Mets can trade Niese and keep Gee in the bullpen as a potential spot starter once Matz arrives.

Over the last four seasons, the Mets have promoted Harvey, Zack Wheeler, deGrom and Syndergaard to the major leagues, and Matz for now appears to be the last of the elite talents in the pipeline. But that can change fast, as deGrom’s emergence from the pack two years ago in the minors demonstrated.

But Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom and Syndergaard each pitched at least a half-season at Triple-A before getting a call to the major leagues.

“Matz has only pitched at Triple-A for [11] starts,” Alderson said. “So he’s realistically inexperienced at that level. Nothing stands out that he needs to work on, but getting more experience at that level is always beneficial.”