The Rays agreed to a one-year, $5-million deal with Colby Rasmus on Monday, a move that demonstrates the kind of crafty risk-taking needed to keep pace with the middle of the AL East pack.

Heading into 2017, the Toronto Blue Jays have their sights set on chasing down the Boston Red Sox, the consensus top team in the American League East. However, it’s increasingly looking like they need to be more concerned about who’s coming up behind them.

The New York Yankees are an ever-menacing presence with their combination of financial resources and young talent, but what might be even more concerning for Toronto is that the Tampa Bay Rays are also starting to creep into the picture.

On Monday, the Rays signed Colby Rasmus to a one-year, $5-million deal, a move that demonstrates the kind of crafty risk-taking that is pushing them toward the same tier as the Blue Jays in the AL East.

While Blue Jays fans know that Rasmus has a bat that can get as cold as Thunder Bay in February, he’s still only 30, provides left-handed pop, and can contribute very strong defence in an outfield corner. Even if he reaches all the incentives on his new contract, he’ll cost just $7 million, which is a true bargain for a starting-calibre player.

Tampa Bay was able to snatch him up because he’s coming off a career-worst season offensively, but he was an above-average contributor with the bat in the previous three years, making a bounce-back likely.

The Rasmus deal was the second time this offseason the Rays took a gamble with major upside. In December, they inked injured catcher Wilson Ramos to a two-year, $12.5-million deal with significant incentives. Ramos is coming off an ACL injury that puts his future as a full-time backstop in jeopardy, and although he’ll most certainly miss significant time in 2017, he’s got a difference-making bat that could make him a steal.

Because of the Rays’ limited budget they’re forced to make more high-variance wagers, but that doesn’t mean the moves they’re making are the wrong ones. By contrast, the Blue Jays’ first two signings of the offseason – Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce – are deals in which the club seems to have paid rather handsomely for perceived certainty.

Here’s how the Blue Jays and Rays signings line up by salary and projected Wins Above Replacement:

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Qualifiers certainly apply here given the limitations of WAR and the difficulty of projecting the future. That said, the Blue Jays’ duo cost more, were less valuable last season, and project to produce less in 2017 than the Rays’ new additions.

Toronto has entered the offseason seeking to spread its budget around and plug a number of holes with affordable mid-price and bargain options. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that strategy, but it needs to be executed well, and so far the Rays are showing them how it’s done.

As it stands, FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays and Rays to finish with identical 82-80 records in 2017. The former has a few more moves to make and should see that projection rise before Opening Day, but being so close to last year’s cellar dweller is concerning for a club with a perennial MVP candidate and serious playoffs aspirations.

The Blue Jays are far enough behind Boston that they need to take some chances on high-ceiling plays, even if those moves have the kind of bust potential that Rasmus and Ramos do. If they don’t, they might find themselves closer to the Rays than the Red Sox when 2017 is all said and done.