Scientists have developed a tool to determine if a solar storm is on its way, over 24 hours before it happens.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), where gas and magnetised particles erupt from the sun’s surface, can create geomagnetic storms that cause chaos for the growing network of satellites surrounding Earth, as well as for technologies such as transformers here on the planet.

This can result in potentially life-threatening issues: GPS failures will not just leave drivers lost, but can prevent planes from landing safely, while essential radio transmissions can also be disrupted.

Not all CMEs will do damage to our technology; whether or not they will result in a damaging geomagnetic storm is down to the orientation of the magnetic field within one, something that satellites are designed to assess so that evasive action can occur.

However, at present satellites can only determine the magnetic orientation of a CME with around 30 to 60 minutes’ notice, meaning there is not always enough time to adequately respond.

The new tool solves this problem by significantly improving how CMEs are measured as they travel from their point of origin on the Sun to Earth.

Before, the eruption of CMEs from the Sun was measured, but little effective modelling was done to measure their progression from there to our planet.

Under the new system, the precise points of origin of the CME on the Sun are measured, and the CME is tracked as it moves towards Earth, using a network of observatories. The resulting data is used to create a reliable model to determine whether the CME will pose a problem to our technology.

While geomagnetic storms are not something you hear regularly about on the news, they will pose a greater threat as we put more and more satellites into the sky, which is why getting an early warning system in place now is so important.

“As we become more entwined with technology, disruption from large space weather events affects our daily lives more and more,” said research leader Dr Neel Savani, Imperial College London visiting researcher and space scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

“Breaking through that 24 hour barrier to prediction is crucial for dealing efficiently with any potential problems before they arise.”

The tool, the details of which were published yesterday in the journal Space Weather, has already been successfully demonstrated using data from previous CMEs.

Now it will undergo further testing at NASA to confirm its reliability, and, if successful is set to become the standard geomagnetic storm prediction tool for both the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the UK’s Met Office.