Democrats target Roby, see Jones' Senate victory as sign she could be vulnerable

WASHINGTON — In the wake of a Democratic upset in the Alabama Senate race, national Democrats are targeting another Republican in the state — Rep. Martha Roby whom they believe is more vulnerable this midterm because she’s also facing a challenge from some in her own party.

Roby is among the candidates in 101 districts the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting in its effort to win control of the House. The DCCC provides financial and logistical support to Democratic House candidates.

Roby, who is serving her fourth term, staved off a Democratic challenge in 2016 after easily winning her previous re-election bids.

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This year she is defending her seat against four Republican challengers, including Bobby Bright, the former Democrat she narrowly defeated in 2010 to win the House seat. The Republican primary is June 5.

“She has a pretty nasty primary going on right now,” said Amanda Sherman, a spokeswoman for the DCCC. “We think that Doug Jones’ win coupled with Congresswomen Roby’s poor performance in the 2016 election could create room for a Democrat to win this seat, while still understanding the path is not easy.’’

Jones pulled off an upset last December to beat Republican Roy Moore for the U.S. Senate seat. It was the first time in 25 years a Democrat won a Senate seat in the red state.

“It’s emboldened Democrats in Alabama, but keep in mind the last time Democrats won this district in 2008 — when Bobby Bright won it — there were far more Democrats in the district than there are now,” said David Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

At the time, the 2nd Congressional District included more of Montgomery.

After redistricting, many of the city’s heavily Democratic precincts are now in Rep. Terri Sewell’s district, Wasserman said. Sewell is the lone Democrat in the state’s U.S. House delegation.

Jones narrowly lost Roby’s district last December.

“While we are confident this seat will remain in Republicans' hands, Representative Roby recognizes that Democrats in Alabama are energized after Senator Jones' victory,’’ said Emily Taylor-Johnson, a spokeswoman for Roby. “That is why it is critical that voters nominate a responsible conservative who can win, and Rep. Roby has proven time and again that she is an electable conservative.’’

In addition to Republican challengers, Democrats — Tabitha Isner and Audri Scott Williams — are also vying for Roby’s seat. The DCCC hasn’t yet backed either candidate, but is waiting to see who wins the party primary.

Sherman said there are several factors, including Roby’s support for the tax reform bill and repealing the health care law, that make her vulnerable.

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“There’s no question winning this seat would be a heavy lift," she said. “But we think based on Roby’s vulnerabilities and the excitement from Democrats coming out of (the Jones win) there is a path.”

Roby is the only candidate in Alabama on the DCCC list.

Roby’s campaign said it’s not surprised she’s on the list. Taylor-Johnson said the DCCC has been looking for a chance to turn the district back to blue and she attempted to tie the race to Democratic House minority leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California.

“But we feel confident that the voters of this district will continue to reject the Obama-Pelosi big government agenda as they have the past eight years," Taylor-Johnson said.

Wasserman said chances of a Democrat winning the seat are “very slim.’’

The Cook Political Report has rated the seat solidly Republican.

Roby has to first beat back fellow Republicans, including Bright, Tommy Amason, Rich Hobson and Barry Moore.

As of early this year, Roby had out raised her opponents. She had $568,786 in her campaign coffers, according to finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Isner followed with $60,806, Moore had $25,370 and Amason had $3,859. Reports filed by Williams, Hobson and Brights show they hadn't yet raised money. Reports for the last three months of fundraising are due next week.

Part of the reason Roby is on the DCCC list is because she didn’t easily win her 2016 re-election bid, Wasserman said.

Roby defeated Democrat Nathan Mathis 54 percent to 45 percent. In 2014, she won with 67 percent of the vote.

She also faced a challenge in the 2016 GOP primary during which a write-in candidate siphoned off some votes after Roby vowed not to vote for Trump.

Roby was one of several Republicans who made the announcement after a 2005 video surfaced of Trump making lewd comments about grabbing women.

“She’s been less critical of her own party since,’’ Wasserman said.

Roby has supported Trump positions 97 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight, which focuses on politics, sports and polls.

Roby also didn’t join other Republican in publicly criticizing Moore after allegations of sexual misconduct against him.

“My sense is she didn’t vote for Roy Moore,’’ said Wasserman. “But she didn’t campaign against him or actively criticize him.’’

Roby spent part of the recent two-week congressional recess traveling her district and touting her effort to combat human sex trafficking and support tax reforms. Last month, she joined other Republican lawmakers on a panel hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation about issues affecting women.

“I believe that getting the government out of the way and reforming our complicated, burdensome tax code is the key to helping hardworking Alabamians have successful businesses and good-paying jobs,’’ Roby wrote in an email to constituents this week.

Roby’s district includes parts of Montgomery and several rural communities in the southern part of the state.

Wasserman said Roby is on a mission to highlight her conservative credentials.

“It’s the only way she can regain credibility with the Republican base,” he said.