A storm in the forecast from Sunday into Monday has the potential to bring heavy snow and wind to New England with over a foot possible in some areas. The areas most likely to receive higher snow totals are north and west of I-495, but even in Boston, the snow will likely pile up enough to easily plow.

I can’t stress it enough: This storm is a very fluid situation with regards to timing and accumulation in any one location. There will be areas inside I-495, including Boston, that will flip back and forth between rain and snow, too.


On Sunday morning, light snow or freezing drizzle will arrive as winds come in off the ocean, which could lead to travel issues before the bulk of the precipitation arrives Sunday afternoon.

The snow will be heavy and wet in most of eastern Massachusetts. Once you get more than 3 or 4 inches of heavy, wet snow, problems like downed trees and power lines become a bigger issue. The winds will also increase late Sunday night and Monday, which may exacerbate these kinds of problems.

Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the New England coastline Sunday and then become very intense Monday. This storm will undergo “bombogenesis,” a term referring to the rapid strengthening of a storm. Storms that exhibit this behavior can surprise meteorologists. That’s why nowcasting — watching the weather evolve in real-time — will be critical later Sunday and early Monday. The storm’s exact track and intensity will determine how much snow falls in any one location.

The chart below further details what I’m expecting for the region between Sunday morning and Monday morning. Notice the snowfall totals aren’t crippling amounts. If Boston gets even the higher end of the snowfall totals, it won’t be considered a blockbuster snowstorm. But since this will be the third snowfall in a short period of time, it’s causing more interest and anxiety than a typical storm of this magnitude.


Of course, these predictions are subject to change as new information becomes available.

This storm will wind down Monday morning as it pulls into the Gulf of Maine. I expect the majority of the snow to fall by the end of the morning commute at the latest, but many school districts will probably cancel school anyway.

Sunshine returns Tuesday with some light snow or rain Wednesday. The final possible storm in this series may arrive Thursday. More on that later.

Follow Dave Epstein on Twitter @growingwisdom for the latest forecast.