July 25, 2018 - Women Drive Dems To 12-Pt. Lead In U.S. House Races, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Split On Confirming Kavanaugh

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With almost 2-1 backing from women, Democrats take a 51 - 39 percent lead in hypothetical races for the U.S. House of Representatives this year, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.





Women back Democratic candidates 57 - 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Men are divided with 46 percent going Republican and 44 percent for Democrats. White voters are divided with 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans. Black voters go Democratic 78 - 16 percent and Hispanic voters back Democrats 66 - 23 percent.





The key block of independent voters backs Democratic candidates 50 - 33 percent.





American voters disapprove 66 - 27 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing and disapprove of Democrats in Congress 63 - 30 percent.





Voters are divided on President Donald Trump's nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court as 40 percent say the U.S. Senate should confirm the nomination and 41 percent say the Senate should not confirm the nomination.





In a similar question with a slight difference in wording, an April 5, 2017 Quinnipiac University Poll found American voters supported 50 - 35 percent the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch.





"Although the Mid-term elections are more than three months away, Democrats, who are hoping to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives, will be cheered by their double- digit lead on the so-called generic ballot," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"At this point, American voters are split down the middle on Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump's U.S. Supreme Court pick."





"With this kind of division it is likely Judge Kavanaugh's Senate confirmation hearings will be crucial if not determinative," Brown added.





Kavanaugh's nomination shows wide gender and racial gaps among American voters:

Men support confirmation 50 - 35 percent, with women opposed 46 - 32 percent;

White voters support confirmation 46 - 38 percent. Black voters are opposed 61 - 15 percent and Hispanic voters are divided 37 - 38 percent. Kavanaugh will make the Supreme Court too conservative, voters say 45 - 38 percent.

But voters say 62 - 27 percent that it is not likely that the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision will be overturned within the next few years.





Overturning Roe v. Wade would be a "bad thing," voters say 66 - 23 percent. By a narrow 48 - 39 percent Republicans say overturning Roe v. Wade would be a "good thing," the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which says that.





American voter opinions on abortion are:

26 percent say abortion should be legal in all cases;

38 percent say abortion should be legal in most cases;

19 percent say abortion should be illegal in most cases;

10 percent say abortion should be illegal in all cases.

President Trump and the Media





American voters disapprove 56 - 36 percent of the way the media covers President Trump, and disapprove 65 - 32 percent of the way Trump talks about the media.





Voters trust the media more than Trump 54 - 34 percent to tell the truth about important issues. Republicans believe Trump more 75 - 16 percent, the only listed group to side with the president. White voters with no college degree and white men are divided.





The media is an important part of democracy, 71 percent of voters say, while 21 percent say the media is the enemy of the people. This is the strongest support for the media since the Quinnipiac University National Poll first asked this question in April.





From July 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,177 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic candidate or more toward the Republican candidate?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Democratic candidate 51% 8% 93% 50% 44% 57% 53% 39% Republican candidate 39 91 3 33 46 32 40 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - 1 DK/NA 10 1 4 17 10 10 6 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Democratic candidate 57% 43% 52% 54% 38% 53% 46% 78% 66% Republican candidate 31 41 43 40 52 39 45 16 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - - - - DK/NA 11 16 5 6 9 8 9 7 11

TREND: If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic candidate or more toward the Republican candidate?

SMONE Dem Rep ELSE DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 51 39 - 10 Jul 02, 2018 50 41 1 8

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 27% 56% 5% 26% 32% 22% 26% 35% Disapprove 66 36 92 64 62 69 69 56 DK/NA 8 8 3 10 6 9 6 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 29% 31% 25% 25% 34% 27% 30% 10% 17% Disapprove 66 58 70 67 59 65 62 87 69 DK/NA 5 12 5 9 6 8 7 3 14

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?

App Dis DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 27 66 8 Jun 20, 2018 28 66 7 Apr 25, 2018 22 69 8 Mar 21, 2018 25 68 7 Feb 21, 2018 22 72 6 Jan 24, 2018 24 70 6 Jan 11, 2018 21 72 7 Dec 13, 2017 20 72 8 Nov 14, 2017 15 79 6 Oct 11, 2017 17 77 6

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4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 30% 11% 58% 24% 26% 34% 32% 27% Disapprove 63 86 37 67 69 57 61 67 DK/NA 7 3 6 9 5 9 7 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 35% 24% 31% 33% 25% 34% 30% 37% 31% Disapprove 60 65 63 60 70 59 64 56 57 DK/NA 5 11 6 7 5 7 6 7 12

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?

App Dis DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 30 63 7 Jun 20, 2018 26 66 8 Apr 25, 2018 26 66 8 Mar 21, 2018 28 63 9 Feb 21, 2018 28 66 6 Jan 24, 2018 30 63 7 Jan 11, 2018 31 59 11 Dec 13, 2017 30 61 8 Nov 14, 2017 29 63 8 Oct 11, 2017 28 65 8

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10. If the Democratic party wins control of the House of Representatives in 2018, would you like to see them begin the process to impeach President Trump, or not?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Impeach 39% 7% 65% 42% 30% 47% 38% 34% No 55 90 27 53 65 46 54 63 DK/NA 6 3 8 6 5 7 7 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Impeach 48% 37% 38% 37% 27% 44% 36% 60% 45% No 48 56 56 56 69 50 59 33 46 DK/NA 4 6 6 7 4 7 5 7 9

TREND: If the Democratic party wins control of the House of Representatives in 2018, would you like to see them begin the process to impeach President Trump, or not?

Yes/ Impeach No DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 39 55 6 Jul 02, 2018 38 56 6 Jun 08, 2018 36 57 8 Apr 26, 2018 38 55 7 Jan 10, 2018 45 51 5

15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the news media has covered President Trump?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 36% 10% 64% 36% 33% 40% 37% 35% Disapprove 56 87 29 54 61 52 55 61 DK/NA 7 3 7 10 6 9 7 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 28% 29% 41% 46% 30% 42% 36% 49% 38% Disapprove 63 60 57 47 66 51 58 43 49 DK/NA 9 11 3 7 4 7 6 8 13

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the news media has covered President Trump?

App Dis DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 36 56 7 Mar 21, 2018 35 59 6 Nov 14, 2017 38 58 3 Oct 12, 2017 35 60 5 Aug 23, 2017 40 55 5 Aug 16, 2017 37 58 5 May 25, 2017 39 57 4 May 10, 2017 37 58 5 Mar 07, 2017 41 53 6 Feb 22, 2017 45 50 4

16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump talks about the media?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 32% 67% 6% 28% 38% 26% 27% 43% Disapprove 65 29 92 68 59 70 69 54 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 4 4 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 25% 30% 34% 34% 41% 30% 35% 8% 23% Disapprove 73 66 62 62 56 66 61 90 72 DK/NA 2 3 4 3 3 4 3 2 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump talks about the media?

App Dis DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 32 65 3 Mar 21, 2018 38 58 4 Nov 14, 2017 34 64 2 Oct 12, 2017 39 59 2 Aug 23, 2017 35 62 3 Aug 16, 2017 38 59 3 May 25, 2017 35 62 3 May 10, 2017 31 65 3 Mar 07, 2017 37 60 3 Feb 22, 2017 35 61 4

17. Who do you trust more to tell you the truth about important issues: President Trump or the news media?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 34% 75% 5% 29% 39% 30% 32% 44% News media 54 16 86 58 48 60 57 45 DK/NA 12 9 9 13 14 10 11 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 24% 37% 37% 37% 41% 35% 38% 12% 30% News media 63 47 55 53 45 56 51 76 54 DK/NA 13 16 8 10 14 9 11 12 16

TREND: Who do you trust more to tell you the truth about important issues: President Trump or the news media?

News Trump Media DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 34 54 12 Jun 20, 2018 36 53 11 Apr 26, 2018 37 53 10 Nov 14, 2017 34 54 12 Oct 12, 2017 37 52 11 Aug 23, 2017 36 54 10 Aug 16, 2017 37 55 9 May 25, 2017 34 53 13 May 10, 2017 31 57 12 Mar 07, 2017 37 53 10

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18. Which comes closer to your point of view: the news media is the enemy of the people, or the news media is an important part of democracy?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Enemy of the people 21% 45% 4% 18% 24% 18% 18% 27% Part of democracy 71 44 94 74 67 75 76 63 NEITHER(VOL) 3 6 - 4 3 3 3 4 DK/NA 4 6 2 5 5 3 3 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Enemy of the people 20% 22% 21% 20% 26% 19% 23% 6% 26% Part of democracy 74 68 74 70 65 73 70 88 67 NEITHER(VOL) 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 1 4 DK/NA 3 6 3 6 6 3 4 5 4

TREND: Which comes closer to your point of view: the news media is the enemy of the people, or the news media is an important part of democracy?

Impt Enemy Part NEITHER DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 21 71 3 4 Jun 20, 2018 23 65 6 6 Apr 26, 2018 22 66 4 8

29. As you may know, President Trump has nominated Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, or not?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Confirm 40% 80% 11% 36% 50% 32% 43% 49% No 41 9 70 42 35 46 42 33 DK/NA 18 11 19 22 15 21 16 18 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Confirm 31% 40% 43% 45% 55% 37% 46% 15% 37% No 54 33 43 36 31 43 38 61 38 DK/NA 15 27 14 18 14 19 17 24 25

30. Do you think that Brett Kavanaugh would make the Supreme Court too conservative, or not?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Too conservative 45% 12% 72% 48% 41% 48% 49% 38% No 38 75 12 35 45 33 38 45 DK/NA 17 13 17 17 14 19 12 17 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Too conservative 55% 35% 46% 45% 37% 49% 44% 64% 38% No 31 42 40 41 48 36 42 15 37 DK/NA 15 22 14 14 15 15 15 21 25

40. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Legal all cases 26% 8% 42% 26% 22% 29% 29% 20% Legal most cases 38 24 44 45 40 37 40 37 Illegal most cases 19 41 6 15 21 17 19 25 Illegal all cases 10 18 4 8 10 10 7 12 DK/NA 7 9 4 6 7 7 5 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Legal all cases 30% 25% 27% 24% 18% 30% 25% 33% 27% Legal most cases 45 36 39 34 42 36 39 40 40 Illegal most cases 15 20 20 19 24 20 22 11 8 Illegal all cases 6 14 9 13 10 10 10 8 20 DK/NA 4 6 5 10 6 5 5 7 5

TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

LEGAL....... ILLEGAL.... All Most Most All DK/NA Jul 25, 2018 26 38 19 10 7 Dec 13, 2017 21 39 22 12 5 Feb 08, 2017 27 35 23 11 4 Jan 27, 2017 28 36 22 9 5 Jan 12, 2017 28 34 21 11 6 Nov 23, 2016 26 38 22 10 4 Sep 28, 2015 22 35 28 12 3 Aug 31, 2015 23 33 26 14 4 Nov 25, 2014 23 33 24 12 8 Oct 04, 2013 20 36 23 14 7

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41. Do you think it's likely that the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to choose an abortion will be overturned within the next few years, or don't you think so?

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Likely 27% 17% 44% 23% 23% 30% 25% 25% No 62 76 47 65 68 57 64 66 DK/NA 10 7 10 13 8 12 11 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Likely 27% 24% 31% 27% 21% 29% 25% 40% 30% No 62 66 62 60 70 60 65 53 55 DK/NA 11 10 7 13 9 11 10 7 15

42. If the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision is overturned, do you think it would be a good thing or a bad thing?