Swing-state poll shows Bush slipping in Florida

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has seen his advantage blunted in his home state over the past two months, according to a new Quinnipiac University swing-state poll released Thursday.

Bush leads potential Republican contenders in Florida with 24 percent, a decrease from 32 percent in the Quinnipiac poll of Feb. 4. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker follows with 15 percent, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is next at 12 percent.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows the top three in Florida with 8 percent; Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who announced his presidential bid in Virginia on March 23, grabs 7 percent; and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee receives 6 percent in the Sunshine State.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich leads among his home state’s GOP voters, with 20 percent saying they would vote for him in the primary; Cruz, Huckabee and Walker follow, each with 9 percent; Bush and Carson with 8 percent; Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul with 7 percent; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 5 percent.

Among Pennsylvania Republicans, 14 percent would vote for Walker, followed by 9 percent for Bush, Carson and former home-state Sen. Rick Santorum. Cruz and Rubio picked up 7 percent in the state. Bush received 12 percent of the Keystone State vote in the same poll last month.

Hillary Clinton continues to hold strong leads over Democrats in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania even after news surrounding her use of private email for official business as secretary of state. With Democrats, Clinton leads with 65 percent in Florida, 54 percent in Ohio and 48 percent in Pennsylvania. Vice President Joe Biden comes in second among Florida Democrats. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — who has said repeatedly she will not run — is the runner-up in Ohio and Pennsylvania, with 14 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

The poll was conducted over landline and cellphones from March 17 to 28, surveying 1,087 Florida voters, 1,077 Ohio voters, and 1,036 Pennsylvania voters with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Florida sample includes 428 registered Republicans with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent and 344 registered Democrats with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percent. The Ohio sample includes 404 registered Republicans with a margin of error of 4.9 percent and 324 registered Democrats with a margin of error of 5.4 percent. Among Pennsylvania voters, the sample includes 442 registered Republicans with a margin of error of 4.7 percent and 415 registered Democrats with a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.