As of Jan. 28, Tech isn’t on the bubble. It’s at least four wins from climbing close to the bubble. Its margin for error is down to the nub. It’s 9-11. If it loses even two more regular-season games, that’d make 13. Another loss in the ACC tournament would be14. It would be difficult bordering on impossible to envision a scenario in which a 14-loss ACC team makes the Dance in the most tepid ACC season since super-expansion.

Georgia, which beat Tech in November, is in similar dire straits. The Bulldogs were dealt a rough start to the conference schedule — first five games: Kentucky twice, at Auburn, at Mississippi and Tennessee in Athens — and could win only once. Then they lost at home to Ole Miss, rated 128th by KenPom. In a game Georgia had to win, it lost by 10. The famous Anthony Edwards took 12 shots, 10 of which were 3-pointers. He finished with 13 points. Rayshaun Hammonds, described by Edwards after the Tech victory as "the best 4-man in the country," had four points.

The Bulldogs have worked 19 games, and their best victory, per KenPom, is over No. 48 Tennessee, which is among Lunardi’s “next four out.” Winning at Memphis, then ranked No. 9 in the Associated Press poll, on Jan. 4 seemed a big deal, but the Tigers were without second-leading scorer D.J. Jeffries and the heralded freshman James Wiseman had already left the team. Memphis is 2-3 since losing to Georgia and has slipped to No. 61 in KenPom. Lunardi lists the Tigers among his “last four in.”

The Bulldogs need not just victories but major victories. Trouble is, the schedule includes only two remaining games against teams in the AP Top 25 — against No. 17 Auburn at Stegeman Coliseum on Feb. 19 and at No. 23 LSU on March 7. Georgia only has eight losses, which works in its favor, but the SEC pecking order has been established: There’s Kentucky and Auburn and LSU, and then there’s Florida and Arkansas and then Alabama and Tennessee and Mississippi State, and now you’ve ticked off more than half the league without mentioning the Bulldogs.

The good thing about signing the nation’s No. 1 recruit is that his presence gives you credibility. If you contrive to miss the NCAA tournament with such a talent — LSU did with Ben Simmons and Washington did with Markelle Fultz, the No. 1 draftees in 2016 and 2017 — that credibility gets shredded. Not incidentally, coaches Johnny Jones and Lorenzo Romar were soon displaced.

Tom Crean arrived in Athens talking big (also at length). He has a track record. He took Marquette to the Final Four. He won the Big Ten at Indiana. He seemed a fine hire. Sure enough, his first full recruiting class featured the sort of recruit Georgia hadn’t signed in years. That wasn’t just progress — it was a great leap upward. The catch with one-and-dones, though, is that they’re done after one. Either you win big with them or you spend the rest of your life trying to explain why you didn’t.

There's still a chance for Georgia to make something of its Ant Man experience, but there can be no more Ole Miss missteps. ESPN's BPI ranks the Bulldogs, with maybe the most gifted collegian, the nation's 117th-best team. That shouldn't be, but there it is.