Poll has 50-50 vote in Braddon and Labor trailing 49% to 51% in Longman

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

The Longman and Braddon byelections, two of the five seats to be decided on Saturday, are on a knife-edge, according to new polling.

YouGov Galaxy polling published by NewsCorp on Monday showed Labor trailing 49% to 51% in Longman, which was won by Labor’s Susan Lamb at the last election. In Braddon, support was 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis, with the Liberals’ Brett Whiteley hoping to win back the seat he lost to Labor’s Justine Keay in 2016.

'It's not about me': Bill Shorten launches Labor campaign in Longman Read more

Should the Coalition snatch either seat, it would be the first time a government has won a seat from the opposition at a byelection in 100 years.

The polling also shows the opposition would be in a winning position in both Longman and Braddon if Anthony Albanese were the party’s leader rather than Bill Shorten.

Labor appears on track to comfortably hold the seats of Perth and Fremantle in WA – where the Liberals are not standing – while the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie is strongly tipped to retain her South Australian seat of Mayo against a challenge by the Liberals’ Georgina Downer.

At a press conference in Perth Albanese said that he is “part of Bill Shorten’s team ... and it is the team that counts” when asked about polls indicating Labor would win the byelections if he were leader.

He said under Shorten’s leadership Labor would have been elected if an election were held in any of the last 37 fortnights.

Officially launching Labor’s Longman campaign on Sunday, the opposition leader said the byelections were “not about Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten” but which party would best for voters’ families and their healthcare.

Shorten returns to Braddon on Monday, and Turnbull will wrap up a tour of remote Northern Territory and north-west Queensland.

Meanwhile, the One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, has withdrawn from campaigning in Longman. A party spokesman said she is “exhausted and in need of some R&R”.

“There is a big year ahead, which will include a general election, and she wants to recharge over the next few weeks and come back bigger and stronger,” he told the Australian.

A separate Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the gap between the government and Labor may be narrowing.

The opposition now leads by just 51% to 49% on a two-party basis, compared with 53% to 47% a month ago.

Turnbull has also increased his popularity over Shorten, with 57% of voters nominating him as preferred prime minister, compared with just 30% for the Labor leader.