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In that case, “Russia won’t have anything else to do but bolster its forces and resources on the western strategic theater of operations,” Yakubov said.

But the spark for an arms-buildup race at the Russia-Europe border is likely still subject to approval in Washington. Plans to fortify military resources in Eastern Europe have yet to get the greenlight from Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, U.S. officials said.

Such an approval would be historic: The United States has not sent heavy weapons to the NATO states that were once Soviet republics since they gained independence at the close of the Cold War. The Baltics joined NATO in 2004, along with former Iron Curtain satellite states Romania and Bulgaria, while Poland and Hungary became member states in 1999.

Some of those local governments have been urging NATO to build up its resources in the area in light of Russia’s recent annexation of Crimea and its support for pro-Russian separatists fighting government troops in eastern Ukraine. While Russia has made no overt attempt to seize territory in a NATO member state, Poland and the Baltic states have argued that more deterrence is necessary and have called on NATO to focus its missile shield at Russia.

Since Russia’s incursions in Ukraine, the United States has announced plans to buffer forces with heavy weapons at some existing American installations around Europe. NATO forces have also been stepping up military exercises in Eastern Europe and the Baltics in recent months, a period during which Russia has also staged more military exercises.