The lock men have held on the White House could be broken in 2016. Dems look for right woman for 2016

Prominent Democratic activists and women’s groups are determined to ensure the party fields a powerful female presidential candidate in 2016, drawing encouragement from a 2012 cycle that saw Democrats win female voters by a lopsided, 11-percentage-point margin and elect several new women to the Senate.

( PHOTOS: Female senators in the 113th Congress)


For the network of women who helped reelect President Barack Obama to a second term — and put in the Senate Democrats such as Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Mazie Hirono of Hawaii — 2016 looms large as an opportunity to shatter the centuries-old lock men have held on the White House.

Women’s groups have long aspired to elect a female president, but only in the past half-decade have their efforts reached what strategists widely view as a critical mass. After the roles Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin played in the 2008 campaign, it would be hard for many to accept another cycle like the 2012 presidential race, which featured two all-male national tickets.

( PHOTOS: Who’s talking about Hillary 2016?)

The challenge that hangs over both parties, but especially Democrats, is finding the right woman for the job. The glass ceiling that women in both parties are determined to shatter has filled their respective benches with potential rising stars but few, if any, sure-bet presidential contenders. On the left, even the most enthusiastic proponents of recruiting women to the race are asking themselves: if not Clinton, who?

“It’s critical that we have a woman on the ticket in some form or fashion. Given that the Republican Party has produced a woman VP candidate, I think it’s important that we ensure that the Democratic Party continues to lead,” said Neera Tanden, who heads the liberal Center for American Progress and has advised both Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama.

( PHOTOS: Republicans, 2016 contenders)

“I hope that Hillary runs,” she said. “She says she’s not running. I hope she runs. I hope she changes her mind, but I think there will be increased demand for a woman candidate.”

EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock called the 2012 elections a breakthrough year — one that put the power of female voters on spectacular display, creating “an incredibly strong bench of women leaders” and “opening the door even wider for a woman to become president of the United States.”

“Hillary Clinton absolutely stands at the top of people to run for president, period. She decides not to run, there’s kind of a gap. To be fair, I don’t think that has anything to do with gender,” Schriock said. “We expect to see a woman on the ticket in 2016. We’re going to do everything we can to ensure that there’s a woman on the ticket in 2016.”

Tanden and Schriock both predicted strong female candidates would emerge for 2016 whether Clinton chooses to run or not. Longtime Clinton supporter Ann Lewis, a senior adviser to the former first lady’s 2008 campaign, said that presidential bid stirred up lasting interest in choosing a female commander in chief.

“Sometimes, it seems to me, it is difficult to want what you can’t imagine,” said Lewis, who said that until Clinton “began speaking knowledgeably, effectively, some would say presidentially, but forcefully as a leader on national issues, we had no image in our minds of what a woman president could be. We are in a different place.”

Anxiety among Democrats has ticked up in recent weeks because of Clinton’s hospitalization for a blood clot near her brain. Clinton’s physicians have said she will make a full recovery and should be back at work this week. But the medical scare has forced some in the party to take more seriously Clinton’s statements that she doesn’t plan to subject herself to another campaign.

Privately, Democratic strategists acknowledge that if Clinton chooses not run, the list of women who could plausibly run for president next time is relatively short. Several top Democrats mentioned Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York as potential candidates. Many liberal Democrats would like to see Warren run, but she has emphatically ruled out a campaign only a few years into her first Senate term.

What’s more, the 2014 cycle has the potential to vault more than a few Democratic women onto the national stage. National Democrats pointed to female attorneys general in California, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Illinois as potential breakout stars, as well as Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo.

But in 2013, there will be only one female Democratic governor: Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, elected to her first term in November. The Granite State — which plays a critical role in choosing presidential nominees — made history in 2012 by electing an all-female House and Senate delegation, as well as Hassan and a female speaker of the state House of Representatives.

Against that backdrop, it could look simply anachronistic for a Democratic nomination fight to play out between, say, Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Republicans, on the other hand, have several prominent female governors who could theoretically run for president if they’re reelected in 2014, including New Mexico’s Susana Martinez and South Carolina’s Nikki Haley. New Hampshire Sen. Kelley Ayotte is viewed as a potential national candidate, too.

But unlike Democrats — who have a relatively thin roster of 2016 candidates of either gender — Republicans also have a glut of male talent at the front of the line for the race. If Martinez and Haley are potentially appealing candidates, so are a football team’s worth of men from governor’s mansions and the Senate. There is no figure in the GOP who could clear the field, as Clinton might be able to do on the Democratic side.

And as much as Republicans consider it an urgent priority to win over female voters, there’s also some ambivalence in the GOP about breaking a gender barrier for its own sake.

“We have great women, especially in the House … and states, but they would have to be great conservatives [and] communicators first,” said GOP presidential strategist Mary Matalin. “I would be offended by a gender candidacy over a philosophically committed one — would be inspired by a woman on the ticket, but not if she was a squish.”

Matalin attributed the rumbling among Democrats about the need to nominate a woman to a combination of deferred loyalty for Clinton (“she would have to give her blessing at a minimum,” Matalin said), as well as admiration for Nancy Pelosi’s leadership in the House and “ongoing resentment of the female-free Obama White House.”

None of the women on either party’s 2016 recruitment list agreed to be interviewed for this story.

Outgoing Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue Dvorsky, who in 2008 backed Obama for president over Clinton, said the pent-up demand for a female candidate in the leadoff caucus state could be a decisive factor in 2016.

The demand, she said, isn’t just for any woman. It’s for Clinton.

“If Secretary Clinton runs for president, I believe that she changes the entire dynamic of our field altogether. Frankly, I think she changes the dynamic of the other field as well,” Dvorsky said. “I think we’ve got on our side some fascinating, smart, cool women coming up. But I can’t imagine that any of them would run against Hillary Clinton, certainly not now. I think men are going to have trouble running against Hillary Clinton.”

Dvorsky heard Gillibrand speak at the 2012 Democratic convention in Charlotte, N.C., and called the New York senator “spectacularly impressive.” Still, “everything is on hold” until Clinton makes her intentions clear, she said.

Officially, Clinton’s line is that she does not intend to run for president. Many of her associates believe her when she says she plans to pass on the race.

Yet it’s also difficult to overstate the sheer tonnage of pressure that will be applied to the outgoing secretary of state as 2016 draws closer — both for the sake of women and for the Democratic Party in general.

Longtime Clinton ally Sarah Kovner, a staple of New York City fundraising and Democratic political circles, called Clinton the “key person” for 2016.

“Even people who didn’t support her [in 2008] say they’re enthusiastic. Nobody has the experience she has. She’s got it all,” Kovner said.

“Support is building very fast,” she continued. “There are all kinds of groups that are urging her to run. There are all kinds of people that are urging her to run.”