By Vinay Kaura

Finally, the United States President Donald Trump has agreed with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that Kashmir is an issue best left for India and Pakistan to resolve. PM Modi deserves the praise for countering undesirable diplomatic intervention of one of India’s strongest allies. It has also punctured Pakistan’s euphoria over Trump’s previous offers to mediate over Kashmir which had raised Pakistani expectations. For the moment, Trump seems to be satisfied with Modi’s assurances on Kashmir. Although there is no guarantee that Trump will not raise the mediation idea again, however the real American approach remains wedded to the idea that Kashmir is a bilateral issue between New Delhi and Islamabad.

Pakistan’s Imran Khan government is under fire from the opposition parties for its Kashmir policy. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the leader of the PPP, has lamented that earlier Pakistan’s policy was how to take Srinagar from India, but now the concern is how to retain Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Khan is desperate to react as reflected in his speech on Kashmir on August 26; it was aimed at both rallying the Pakistani people to the Kashmir cause and suppressing uncomfortable questions on his government’s diplomacy on Kashmir. Hence, we cannot expect the termination of Pakistani propaganda and threats over India’s move to scrap the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. After downgrading diplomatic relations with India, Pakistan is once again considering a complete closure of its air space to India as a retaliatory measure.

However, the bigger challenge for Indian diplomats would be to counter concerted efforts to undo India’s new Kashmir policy. It would not be easy to neutralise these propaganda efforts without ensuring that the situation in the Kashmir Valley is normalised as early as possible while simultaneously preventing elements from instigating violence on the streets.Given the imposition of curfew and the detention of mainstream Kashmiri politicians, there are growing concerns regarding human rights of the Kashmiri people. However, this is also a regrettable reality of our times that human rights violations have lost their salience as triggers of international pressure.

India has promised that life will soon return to normal in the Kashmir Valley, and the forfeited statehood would also be restored in future. Nevertheless, if there is substantial spike in street protests and violence in coming weeks and months, the Indian government would be tempted to control them with a heavy hand. This may result in some pressure on India to reverse its new policy path in Kashmir. In such a scenario, Pakistan and China would be more than happy to fish in troubled waters; they will step up their efforts to delegitimiseIndia’s sovereignty over Kashmir.

The fact that Pakistan recently made China to call for a UN Security Council meeting to hold consultations on Kashmir is important. It is another matter that China was isolated at the UN Security Council meeting, and Pakistan’s efforts to internationalise the issue was defeated 4-1. But it will continue to knock at the doors of the UN Security Council and other international forums. Islamabad has tried to reach out to major capitals including the Muslim world for support on its Kashmir policy. But most of the Muslim world has either given a muted response or at best advised both the South Asian adversaries to resolve the issue bilaterally. To Pakistan’s utter shock, the UAE declared India’s revocation of Kashmir’s special status as its internal issue. Bahrain went a step further by conferring its highest civilian award on Modi.

For more than seven decades, Pakistan has been trying to internationalise the Kashmir issue, hoping that it could alter the territorial status-quo over the erstwhile princely state. Pakistani rulers have consistently fed the domestic public opinion on Kashmir-related rhetoric since the creation of their state on the basis of religion. Having failed to achieve its objective through conventional military means, Pakistan has tried since 1989 using terrorism as leverage to force India’s hand. Pakistan has so far had an upper hand in perception management, which has led to circulation of false propagandaand fake news about Kashmir. Will it change now?

By repealing Article 370 of Indian Constitution, and integrating Jammu and Kashmir more closely into the Indian Union, the Modi government wants to make Kashmir an internal issue for India, leaving no role for Pakistan. As claimed by Indian policy-makers, if there is anything India seeks to discuss with Pakistan, it is the terrorism infrastructure that Pakistan’s security establishment maintains. But it is easier said than done as the Pakistani government would not easily change its inflexible position that Kashmir is the unfinished business of British India’s partition, and India is a permanent enemy of Pakistan. At present juncture, New Delhi has less to worry about what Washington might say regarding Kashmir, but it should care more about how to make the larger international community to accept the new reality in Kashmir.

Nothing pleases Trump better than favourable trade terms; he is not really interested in Kashmir. And the positive outcome of Modi-Trump meeting at Biarritz, France is a counterpoint to the growing perception that India is not capable enough to help the US counter China’s rising assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. But the American efforts to bring the Taliban into Afghanistan’s governing structures, which are set to lead to eventual Taliban takeover of the Kabul regime, would negatively affect India’s security interests as a revengeful Pakistan is expected to redouble its efforts to create troubles for India.

Despite initial setbacks, Islamabad will continue to appeal to the Muslim world and sections of western liberal media against India’s policies in Kashmir. In order to divert global attention from its sponsorship of terrorism, Pakistan will do its best to create a narrative about India as an aggressive, illiberal and dangerous regional power. Thus, the real challenge for the Modi government is two-fold: to make its new Kashmir policy deliver without bloodshed and to maintain its image as liberal and plural democracy.

Vinay Kaura is an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan.