I’m going to preface this post by saying that initially I was not a fan of the Trubisky pick and had gone into the draft hoping the Bears would take Jamal Adams at three to shore up the secondary. Not only was I shocked the Bears went with a quarterback, I was surprised it was Trubisky, who they had shown no prior interest in. Having had a couple of days to recover from the initial shock the pick is starting to grow on me, however the Bears are still getting routinely criticized for the decision and even being referred to as the new Browns.

The three recurring arguments I see against the pick are:

Mitchell Trubisky is not worth an early first round pick.

The Bears gutted their draft to move up one spot.

Why did the Bears give all the money to Mike Glennon if they were going to just draft a guy anyway?

I’m hoping to debunk the logic behind these arguments and prove that maybe trading up and selecting Trubisky with the second overall pick wasn’t the catastrophic failure many are making it out to be.

Mitchell Trubisky is not worth an early first round pick:

When discussing draft prospects, much is made about their prospective value and where in the draft they should be picked based on this value. A player’s prospective value exists on a spectrum ranging from special teams or depth players through to solid starters and right through to the elite level talent. A common criticism of a pick is that it was a reach and that although that player may be able to help the team, the pick in which they were selected is too high to correlate with the player’s prospective value. A league average starting caliber player might be a great pick in the second or third round but take that same player in the top ten of the first round and it’s not such a great pick. It’s a commonly understood approach to evaluating draft talent however, where people go wrong with this is that they apply this same kind of prospective value spectrum to quarterbacks.

A quarterback’s potential value is viewed less on a spectrum and is much more binary and based around whether he is a franchise quarterback that you can build a team around. In the NFL, a quarterback is either good enough to build around and win Super Bowls with or he’s not. If he is good enough, then you sign him to a long-term contract and surround him with as much talent as possible. If he is not good enough, you find someone who is. A true franchise quarterback is so much more valuable than a first-round pick and if Trubisky does in fact pan out to be one, than he was absolutely worth the second overall pick.

The Bears gutted their draft to move up one spot

The key thing to remember when thinking about a trade like this isn’t to think about how many spots the Bears moved up but rather what they got from moving up. The Bears felt they needed a future franchise quarterback and clearly had a high grade on Trubisky. In their position, they felt that if they didn’t make the trade with the 49ers then there was a good chance someone else makes that trade and they don’t get Trubisky. From the Bears point of view, either they use a few mid round picks and get a potential franchise quarterback or they don’t and risk missing out altogether. The Bears secured their potential quarterback of the future for this year’s first, third, fourth and next year’s third round picks. The 49ers benefited from the trade, getting three mid round picks and drafting the player they were going to take at two anyway, but just because the 49ers benefitted from the trade, that doesn’t make the trade bad for the Bears. Ryan Pace has often been quoted as saying a good trade is one that benefits both teams and I think that was the case here. The 49ers get the player they want and a few extra picks while the Bears get who they consider to be their quarterback of the future.

The major criticism of the trade was that the Bears could have stayed put and Trubisky would still have been available. I’m not going to profess to having any kind of inside knowledge about whether this was in fact the case. There were rumours that teams were trying to trade with the 49ers and these same teams could very well have made a similar offer to the Bears which could have caused Pace to pull the trigger and make the trade. We can never know what went on in that draft room and if there was in fact any legitimate interest from other teams to trade up in front of the Bears. Ryan Pace clearly felt there was a chance of this happening and made a move to ensure that his franchise guy didn’t get picked ahead of him. Had Trubisky been picked by another team at two, there is no telling when the Bears would next be in the position to take a quarterback they consider to have franchise potential.

To put the trade in perspective, here’s what other teams have had to give up recently to ensure they could get their quarterback of the future.

The Texans spent this year’s 1 st and next year’s 1 st on Deshaun Watson.

and next year’s 1 on Deshaun Watson. The Chiefs spent this year’s 1 st , 3 rd and next year’s 1 st on Patrick Mahomes II.

, 3 and next year’s 1 on Patrick Mahomes II. The Rams spend two 1 st rounders, two second rounders, and two 3 rd rounders for Jared Goff and a couple of late round picks.

rounders, two second rounders, and two 3 rounders for Jared Goff and a couple of late round picks. The Eagles traded two 1 st rounders, a 2 nd , 3 rd 4 th for Carson Wentz.

rounders, a 2 , 3 4 for Carson Wentz. The Redskins spent three 1st rounders and a 2nd on Robert Griffin III.

The bottom line is that the Bears had a Quarterback they felt could be the future in Chicago and paid a relatively small price to ensure they could get him and if Mitch ends up being that guy than the Bears got an absolute bargain.

Why did the Bears give all the money to Mike Glennon if they were going to just draft a guy anyway?

It’s a fair question and having just spent the last 2 months trying to get excited about Mike Glennon it was something I was left wondering as well. I believe Ryan Pace subscribed to the Eagles, Raiders and Seahawks “throw enough crap at the wall and some of it will stick” method for finding a quarterback. In 2012 the Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to a sizeable deal before drafting Russell Wilson in the 3rd round. In 2014 the Raiders took it one step further signing Matt Schaub and using an early second rounder on Derek Carr. However, the situation that best fits what the Bears did this year is what the Eagles were able to do last year. The Eagles signed Sam Bradford to a two-year deal and paid a ton of money to career backup Chase Daniel. They then went into the draft and mortgaged their future to trade up six spots and select Carson Wentz. The Eagles were ridiculed at the time for this, with their plan being to redshirt Wentz and go into the season with Bradford starting and Daniel backing him up. However, when Wentz proved that he was a capable starter and Bridgewater went down in Minnesota, the Eagles traded away Bradford for a first-round pick. Suddenly the Eagles found themselves with a rookie franchise quarterback, a solid backup and the Vikings first round pick.

Now obviously to pull this off it took a bit of luck on the Eagles part however they also did everything they could to ensure there was as much talent in their quarterback room as possible. The Bears have done the exact same thing, they have their starter in Glennon locked up for two years, an experienced backup/mentor in Sanchez and a rookie they plan to redshirt and develop.

The Bears are faced with one of the following situations:

Glennon and Trubisky both prove themselves to be franchise quarterbacks. The Bears can then move Glennon and recuperate draft picks.

Glennon struggles but Trubisky hits the ground running. The Bears can start Trubisky and have a solid backup in Glennon.

Glennon looks good but Trubisky struggles. The Bears can redshirt Trubisky and develop him until he’s ready.

Both Glennon and Trubisky struggle. This is the only truly bad possibility for the Bears. If this happens Pace and the coaching staff are gone and we’re back to square one.

Now I’m not going to profess to be a quarterback guru that can predict the success of any college prospect in the draft. The point of this post isn’t to say Trubisky’s going to be the next Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, I simply wanted to break down the logic behind the circle jerk that the Bears made a catastrophic error on Thursday night. Until we actually see him play it’s hard to say whether this pick was any good or not. You can point to the fact he only started 13 games in college, he’s struggled with his deep ball and he didn’t know what a hard count was. I’m an optimist so I see a guy with a quick release, decent arm strength, accuracy, mobility and excellent pocket presence who has been drafted to a team where he doesn’t have to start right away and is blessed with a solid o-line, a Pro-Bowl running back and a defense on the rise. Until proven otherwise, I’m all in on Mitch.