Kentucky Democrat Amy McGrath

If Amy McGrath's new poll of the Democratic primary in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District is accurate, it represents an astounding turnabout. McGrath's survey, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang in mid-April, finds her leading Lexington Mayor Jim Gray by a 42-35 margin—an enormous jump from her own previously unreleased December numbers that had Gray ahead 63-18. Indeed, Gray's own polling from early March likewise had him ahead 52-19, but since then, both candidates have gone on the airwaves with positive ads.

However, their messages have been very different. Gray has run ads that have been more geared toward a general election: In one spot, he even declared that "we better put party aside." McGrath, by contrast, has struck a much more partisan chord, calling health care "a fundamental right" and saying she'll defend the Affordable Care Act against its opponents, "even President Trump." She's also emphasized her personal story about becoming a Marine combat pilot even though such roles had been forbidden to women, and in a newer ad, recounts a harrowing mission in Iraq in which she only had enough fuel to drop a single bomb on an enemy outpost, thus saving her fellow troops.

Both candidates also continue to raise tons of money, with Gray pulling in $783,000 and McGrath $660,000 in the last quarter, putting them both at the top of the heap among challengers nationwide. But thanks to her earlier start, McGrath’s raised and spent considerably more overall, though Gray has somewhat more cash left in the bank, with $826,000 to McGrath’s $624,000. Both, however, will have plenty of resources for the stretch run.

However, we’ve yet to see any sort of response to McGrath’s polling from Gray's team, so in the absence of contradictory data, it certainly looks like McGrath is on a sharp upward trajectory with just a month to go before the May 22 primary.