But so far, neither Toronto’s boom nor Western New York’s attraction efforts have yielded a windfall for Buffalo, said Bruce Fisher, a SUNY Buffalo State economics professor. He and others blame significant outside deterrents, such as an unfavorable exchange rate, trade uncertainty and long wait times at the border. Inbound crossings at Western New York’s three international bridges plummeted after 9/11 and never recovered, topping out at 788,000 in March 2019 -- compared with 920,000 in 2009 and 1.2 million 10 years earlier.

Other common indicators of cross-border commerce — from the Ontario Health Ministry’s annual spending in Buffalo to the share of Canadians flying out of BUF and buying tickets to Bills’ and Sabres’ home games — flat-lined or fell in recent years, according to their correspondent organizations. Canadian business expansions and investments are also stable, Turner said.

“There’s a disincentive for both shoppers and investors because of the exchange rate in particular,” Fisher said. “That has nothing to do with local policy, and everything to do with international exchange rates” -- which may grow worse for Canadians in the future, he added.

Still, Buffalo may find an upside in all this, even if it’s not strictly economic.