The Toronto Maple Leafs are both more and less than they appear to be.

As expected, the Leafs currently sit last in the Atlantic Division. They’ve lacked a scoring punch and the presumptive starter in goal has been horrible and lost his job. Despite all this, the Leafs are most certainly better than their record suggests – particularly in light of their scoring chance differential so far.

If we combine all situations (even strength and special teams) and adjust for score effects, the Leafs rank second in scoring chances per 60 minutes of play (SCF60), sixth in scoring chance percentage (SCF%) and fifth in total scoring chance differential (SC+/-).

We can also see from their expected goals percentage (xG%) at 5v5 that they are among some of the league’s elite teams at even strength. Combine this with the above average goaltending they’ve been getting from Reimer and the team was bound to put up points eventually.

In addition to the massive improvement in underlying performance since Mike Babcock’s arrival, the Leafs feature a number of young potential stars on their roster. Morgan Rielly is amongst the team leaders in scoring at age 21, while playing predominantly against the opposition’s top forwards. Despite being paired with Matt Hunwick – who has never been more than a third-pair defender in his NHL career – Rielly boasts a positive shot attempt differential on the year.

Nazem Kadri has also been excellent this season, despite his lack of goal and point totals. At 25, Kadri is in his offensive prime and he sits in the league’s top five for shots on goal and is top 10 in scoring chances. There are only 12 skaters in the NHL who are averaging 15 or more shot attempts per 60 minutes, 10 or more scoring chances per 60, all while playing over 30 per cent of their team’s total ice time. This group is made up of elite talents, and Kadri is right in the middle of it. The goals and points will come for him eventually and fans should be patient.

Further, Kadri is playing top-line minutes on one of the top 10 possession lines in the NHL with 26-year-old James Van Riemsdyk and irritating defensive forward Leo Komarov.

The Kadri line is essentially the only one the Leafs have that is producing consistently effective possession results with significant ice time. Similarly on the blueline, there isn’t much for the future beyond Rielly and the quietly consistent and effective Jake Gardiner, who is proving to be an effective partner for declining veteran Dion Phaneuf.

If we look at the possession results of the Leafs’ four most consistent lines and three most consistent defence pairings it’s interesting to see how things are playing out.

The third line of Joffrey Lupul–Nick Spaling–Daniel Winnik is getting buried against top competition. The results for the Bozak line may be improving as they gel, but Shawn Matthias is propping up their subpar possession results with his work on the forecheck and along the wall. The early results for Byron Froese were quite worrisome, but with NHL caliber wingers his performance has been reasonable.

Roman Polak hasn’t had a positive impact on his defensive partners, but Martin Marincin at least seems effective alongside him in sheltered usage. If the Leafs’ key objective this year is to get reasonable trade value out of the middling talent on their roster then an occasional winning streak propelled by hot shooting and good goaltending will be key.

In the early-going, Toronto’s possession numbers have been stellar. They should also start seeing improvement on special teams as they rank first in scoring chances per 60 on the power play and are in the top 10 in scoring chances against per 60 on the penalty kill.

To complement it all, Reimer has compensated nicely for Jonathan Bernier’s abysmal run. Reimer may be a solid bet to keep long-term as an affordable and relatively consistent option in net. His career statistics are actually comparable to, if not superior to, Bernier’s.

This year’s Leafs feature some familiar story lines, and much of the recent winning is a result of getting some percentage-based luck between the pipes and up front. But the new systems put in place by Babcock and his coaching staff – combined with the performance of young talent on the roster and on the farm – should put a positive spin on a team that wasn’t expected to compete for a playoff spot this season.

THE LESSON

“This site remains under construction, expect new and exciting things in the future.”

The Leafs got off to a terrible start to the season record-wise, but have since started to get the inevitable puck luck to fall their way. Despite the recent wins remember, this is still a work in progress. The young players who should be around for the long-term have been playing well and, really, that’s all you can ask for.