When it comes to a player like Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto, there should be little debate that he is a fantastic player. With the exception of time missed due to a torn meniscus in 2012 (arguably the best season of his career), Votto has been remarkably consistent over the past 5 seasons, posting stellar on base percentages of greater than .400 while providing power and solid defense at first base. Ignoring his injury in 2012, he has been a 6-win player each year since 2010, and during that time, only Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano have been worth more to their teams. Votto has been recognized as an All-Star each of the last 4 seasons and received the NL MVP Award in 2010.

Despite this, there seems to be some sort of growing sentiment among sportswriters, fans and others that Votto is too passive at the plate and somehow no longer productive. This seems to be related to the fact that his RBI total dipped all the way to just 73 last season, less than players like Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Lucroy, and, most notably, Votto’s own teammates Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.

The misleading conclusion that can be drawn from this is that Votto isn’t as productive as Bruce or Phillips because he doesn’t drive in as many runs. What sort of person would be foolish enough to believe this? Turns out people like Marty Brennaman, a guy who actually gets paid to watch and talk about the Reds every day.

What’s wrong with looking at RBI totals to discriminate between two players? Most notably, they fail to account for the discrepancy in the number of at-bats each player had with runners on base. Because since-fired manager Dusty Baker insisted for some reason on batting shortstop Zack Cozart (and his putrid .284 OBP) in front of Votto in the lineup all year, Votto had just 244 at-bats with men on base this season, which ranked 22nd among 75 NL players who had enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Bruce had 278 at-bats with men on base, good for 4th in the NL, and Phillips had 306 at-bats with runners on, more than anyone else in the National League.

The idea that Votto (.435 OBP, best in the NL) is a less productive hitter than Phillips is absurd. Phillips posted a .310 OBP this season – only 11 NL players (including Cozart) failed to avoid making an out more often. And yet, many still cite Phillips’ RBI totals as a proof that he somehow produces at a high level offensively. The actual biggest reason for his impressive RBI totals? The opportunity to hit behind Votto and noted on-base-machine Shin-Soo Choo (.423 OBP).

Despite what should seem obvious, Baker still seemed to insist that Votto become more aggressive at the plate as the season went on. When asked what he thought of Votto’s season back in August, Baker said:

The name of the game is, ‘He who crosses home plate the most wins.’ So you’ve got to have somebody to cross home plate, and you’ve got to have somebody help him cross home plate.” Baker makes it clear that he wants to see Votto be the latter guy more often. “He’s done it before,” he said. “It’s not like he hasn’t done it before.”

Votto hit .291/.477/.455 with runners in scoring position this year, so perhaps the only argument that can be made is that he should be swinging more often with runners in scoring position. He could be less selective at the plate and swing at more pitches out of the zone.



Taking a look at Brooks Baseball, we can examine Votto’s isolated slugging (BA-SLG) numbers on pitches in and out of the zone:

Isolated Slugging

In the zone: .250

Out of the zone: .062

(for comparison, David Ortiz posted a .255 ISO this season, so .250 is quite good)

The data is quite clear – Votto does damage at the plate when he decides to swing the bat. As Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs pointed out earlier this season, Votto is already selecting the strikes he deems the most hittable, and it’s pretty much impossible to increase swinging at strikes without also swinging at more balls, which wold undoubtedly lead to Votto making more outs.

Fortunately, while many sportswriters and fans have been begging for a change in Votto’s approach, the Reds front office doesn’t seem to be buying. In April 2012, they gave him a 10 year, $225 million extension, and this winter, when tension seemed to be building between Baker and their superstar, they fired their manager and replaced him with pitching coach Bryan Price.

Joey Votto has been one of the league’s best players for years now – as mentioned, he led the league in OBP and posted a 156 wRC+ (meaning he created 56% more offense than the league average, adjusted for park factors) which ranked 5th in all of baseball. And yet, because of an arbitrary counting statistic that fails to accurately measure a player’s offensive value, we have so many clamoring for Votto to do a little bit less of what he does best – get on base.