

Steve Jobs' medical leave from Apple is likely to be permanent, analysts say.

In a letter to Apple staff on Wednesday, Jobs said he was taking a five-month medical leave because his health issues are "more complex than I originally thought."

Jobs' letter contradicts a statement the CEO published just last week, in which he said he was "undergoing a simple and straightforward treatment" for a hormone imbalance. The earlier statement gave the impression that Jobs merely needed to gain weight, and would continue as normal as Apple's CEO.

Now, however, Jobs' ill health appears to be much more serious. He is taking five months off work, not planning to return until June 2009. By contrast, he took only a month away from Apple after undergoing surgery for pancreatic cancer in 2004.

"My bet is he's not coming back," said Roger Kay, an Endpoint Technologies analyst. "Despite all the protestations, I think he has cancer. They talk about digestive this and digestive that, but ... forget all the buzz you're hearing. Just look at the photos."

ThinkPanmure analyst Vijay Rakesh said it's been obvious for some time that Jobs' health condition is critical.

"What he's indicating is it needs more urgent attention," Rakesh said.

There are several reasons to think that Jobs' latest letter is as unreliable as the milder health statement he made a week ago:

A health expert recently interviewed by Wired.com that Jobs' initial statement about his health was contradictory and made little sense. According to the expert, the symptoms Jobs described could reflect anything from hyperthyroidism to a new form of cancer.

Jobs did not deliver his keynote speech at Macworld Expo 2009. Before the show, Apple said this move was purely for business reasons. Later, Gizmodo reported a rumor that Jobs was not delivering a keynote because of his declining health. A day before Macworld, Jobs explicitly said he had opted out because of his health.

In recent press events, Tim Cook and Phil Schiller, Apple's COO and vice president of marketing, respectively, have been sharing the stage with Jobs more prominently than in the past. One analyst contacted by Wired.com viewed this as a sign that Apple is preparing to dethrone Jobs.

Jobs' increasingly gaunt figure between public appearances in the past year is a possible sign of active cancer, according to Dr. Alan Astrow, Director of Hematology and Oncology at the Maimonides Cancer Center.

Apple customers, journalists, bloggers, investors and analysts are hoping that Jobs is well and will retake the reins in the summer. Shortly after Jobs' announcement on Wednesday, Twitter lit up with "get well" wishes for the CEO.

"My mother just asked me if I heard about Steve Jobs — of course I have," tweeted Warbrain. "I wish him the best."

Many expressed their appreciation for his leadership and their desire for his quick recovery.

"Apple won't be the same w/o his creative leadership," tweeted Heredes. "Praying for your health, Steve."

Photo: Paul Sakuma*/Associated Press*