The turning point for Obamacare's popularity could very well be this : about 17 million people will be eligible for tax credits—for subsidies to help pay for insurance—under the law. Kaiser Family Foundation surveyed population and economic data 2012 and 2013 census to determine, state-by-state, how many people will receive the assistance for their insurance.

People with incomes between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level will qualify for premium help from the federal government ($23,550 to $94,200 for a family of four). People who qualify for Medicaid, or who can get insurance from their employer that costs less than 9.5 percent of their pay aren't eligible for the tax credits. Additionally, people not in the country legally and the incarcerated aren't eligible.



The amount of tax credit that a person receives depends on their family income and the cost of health insurance where they live. The law establishes a maximum percentage of income that people within the 100 to 400 percent of poverty income range must pay for a benchmark plan where they live. The percentages range from 2% of income for people with income at the federal poverty line to 9.5% of income for people with incomes at four times federal poverty. If the premium that a person or family faces for the benchmark plan in their area is higher than the maximum percent of income defined in the law for their income, they are eligible for a tax credit and the tax credit is equal to the difference between the premium for the benchmark plan and the defined percent of their income. The benchmark plan is the second-lowest-cost plan in the silver cost-sharing tier offered through the marketplace for the area where they live. Additional explanations and examples are available by using the Kaiser Premium Subsidy Calculator.

Overall, Kaiser determined, 29 million people who are either currently uninsured or who are on the individual health insurance market will be eligible to shop on the exchanges for their insurance. That excludes people who qualify for Medicaid, or would qualify for it if their state is participating in the Medicaid expansion.

The Kaiser study found that the states that will have the most people eligible for the help are some of largest population states, Texas, where as many as 2 million people qualify; California, where some 1.9 million people qualify; and Florida, where 1.6 million people qualify. The states with the fewest eligible are Vermont, with 27,000 individuals, and the District of Columbia, with 9,000.

Obviously, HealthCare.gov and the state web sites have to function in order for people to actually sign up. But assuming that this hiccup is taken care of, that the web site works and that all these people are able to enroll, the politics of Obamacare could shift significantly. Seventeen million people are going to be benefitting—a lot—from the law. That story isn't as sexy right now as the stories of people who are getting the cancellation letters and who are pissed off, but it's the key story, and it's the story that will be in those 17 million people's minds going forward.