Photo Credit — Mike Morbeck

After another tough loss dropped the Detroit Lions to a disappointing 0–2 start to the 2018 season, quarterback Matthew Stafford has come under fire for his generally below-par play.

Stafford was far from sharp in the opener against the New York Jets — throwing four interceptions — and he struggled to get out of the gate this week against the San Francisco 49ers as well.

Limping through the first three quarters, Stafford finally turned it on in the fourth and closed his afternoon off with 347 yards through the air to go along with three touchdowns and a 101.7 QB Rating.

The game was marred by a couple of key drops by the usually sure handed Golden Tate and Theo Riddick, but that didn’t stop many Detroit fans and media alike for placing the blame squarely on the shoulders of Stafford.

With his strong close to the game in the fourth quarter, critics of Stafford came out of the woodwork with the go-to nickname “Stat Padford” with the implication that the Lions signal caller picks up most of his gaudy statistics once the game is effectively over.

It is true that Stafford performed much better in the fourth quarter in Week Two than he had throughout the rest of the game, but the narrative that Stafford is able to rack up numbers at the end of the game is not really grounded in reality — at least not any more so than other top QBs of recent memory.

Throughout the course of his career, Stafford has actually played his best football in the third quarter. His 66.11 Completion Percentage and 94.4 QB Rating — as well as 7.7 Yards Per Attempt / 7.53 Air Yards Per Attempt — stand as the top amongst any of the four quarters.

While many accuse Stafford of piling up stats in the fourth quarter, his yards per attempt is actually the lowest in the last 25% of the game. His 65 Touchdowns in the fourth quarter do hold up as the top mark of any quarter, but a deeper analysis somewhat negates the weight of that raw number.

Looking at his career, Stafford’s Touchdown Percentage — which adequately accounts for volume in a way that pure Passing Touchdowns does not — is at 4.4%. On a per quarter basis it peaks at 4.7% in the fourth quarter, but that mark is just 0.2% higher than his next best quarter — or the difference between the career average of Philip Rivers (5.3%) and Ben Roethlisberger (5.1%).

Matthew Stafford

Analyzing some of the other top quarterbacks in the league, Stafford’s slight increase in fourth quarter Touchdown Percentage is negligible. In keeping ties to the state of Michigan, former Michigan State Spartans quarterback Kirk Cousins has a career Touchdown Percentage of 5.2% in the fourth quarter, which is 0.5% higher than his next best quarter and 1.5% higher than his lowest quarter (compared to a 0.5% swing in lowest-to-highest for Stafford).

Kirk Cousins

Andrew Luck, another one of the most statistically prolific quarterbacks in the league, shares a 0.2% bump in the fourth quarter with Stafford. His 6.1% fourth quarter Touchdown Percentage is 0.2% higher than his 5.9% third quarter and an entire 2.2% higher than his 3.9% first quarter.

Andrew Luck

Russell Wilson, a year-in year-out MVP candidate, has numbers that are even more extreme than Stafford. His 8.2% fourth quarter touchdown percentage would be the highest in league history if extended out to the entire game and it’s a staggering 2.3% higher than his next highest number. Beyond that, it’s 4.9% higher than his low mark of 3.3% in the first quarter.

Russell Wilson

Beyond Touchdown Percentage in the fourth quarter, statistics have shown that Stafford actually plays better when the game is within reach, especially over the course of the past two seasons.

In the 2016 and 2017 seasons when trailing by 9–16 points — a mark that would generally be considered as a blowout late in games — Stafford has posted a Completion Percentage of 60.5% (1.5% lower than his career mark of 62% and his QB Rating sits at 90.3.

His nine Touchdowns and five Interceptions during those seasons and in that scoring range come out to a 1.8 Touchdown to Interception Ratio, which is exactly what his career number is.

In close games (tied, or behind by 1–8 points) throughout the 2016 and 2017 seasons however, Stafford’s numbers actually make a jump. He’s completed 64.3% of his passes in these scenarios for a 93.8 QB Rating — 5.8 points higher than his career average. That five point difference is equal to the gap in QB Rating between former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joe Montana and current Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

What’s more is that Stafford becomes more protective and more efficient with the ball, as his Touchdown to Interception Ratio skyrockets all the way to 3.0 in these situations over the last two seasons.

Based on his own performance and in comparison to his peers, Stafford’s performance in the fourth quarter and in close games is right in line with what you would expect out of an elite quarterback.

Matthew Stafford is not without fault by any means, but his critics deriding him with the nickname “Stat Padford” is not a criticism that is grounded in reality.