Before we begin, let’s remember that Donald Trump could still win. Yes, yes, it’s a long shot. (Full disclosure: I’d earn $200 if he did, thanks to some bets I placed with my mother and a friend over the summer. I’m out $40 if he loses. This is why journalists can’t be trusted.) But, technically, Trump has a 15.6-percent chance, according to FiveThirtyEight, so we could all be in for a surprise. To treat the loss of Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton as a given would be high-handed and slothful.

That said, let’s be high-handed and slothful and treat Trump’s loss as a given. What’s his next chapter? The effects of Trump will linger, of course, and others will try to re-create his coalition. If you agree with Peggy Noonan that a controlled and sane Trump would easily have won the election—it’s a big counter-factual, but it’s the central question for Republicans (and an important one for Democrats) moving forward—then you’ll run for office stealing many of his issues and positions. But there’s also the man himself. He’s not the sort to disappear. He’s also not the sort to fail on a massive scale and then go back to normal as if nothing happened. So we’ve got some contradictions to deal with.

Let’s consider some Trump scenarios going forward.

1. Trump goes back to his day job and keeps a low profile.

Losing big is hard for anyone, and most people want to hide for a while and recover from it. Some never reappear. (Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale are both alive and well, wherever they are.) There’s also a tradition in U.S. politics of grace in defeat, of stepping out of the limelight while the country adjusts to a new leader. Trump has many fences to mend and, most likely, affairs of business to resolve after a period of neglect. So quiet work could be the next step.

But Trump, as we all know, doesn’t naturally lie low. If he’s feeling something strongly, the delay between brain and vocalization approaches zero. Also, he has 12.7 million Twitter followers who want to see what he says next. Leaving them hanging might be awkward. Perhaps Trump could just post about technical business matters and stay non-political, but that would be out of character. It’s hard to imagine the quiet period of Trump enduring much past Hillary Clinton’s inaugural address, which he will probably call “the worst.”

2. Trump goes back to his day job but remains as outspoken as ever.

If Trump were a Mitt Romney type, a decorous and non-bold candidate, no one would care what he had to say after defeat. (Romney, too, is alive and well, wherever he is.) But Trump’s daring policy heresies, not to mention unrestrained insults, have gained him millions of passionate fans. Defeat will not cool their ardor all that much, and few have any regrets. (Florida voters still say they would vote for Trump over Marco Rubio by 35 percent to 25 percent if they had to do the primaries all over again.)

The “movement” talk is real, and Trump will remain the head of U.S. conservative populism in the near term and a mascot of it in the longer term. As mentioned above, ambitious politicians will try to re-assemble Trump’s coalition, building on his issues while sanding down the edges of crazy, and Trump’s endorsements will be valued. Quite possibly, they’ll find that wheeling him out onto a stage and letting him fly the Trump flag is the only way to get his support.