That was fun. Now what?

The first Republican debate of 2016 was an empty-calorie joy ride, thanks to Donald Trump, who embraced his role as both comedian and heckler during a series of entertaining (and largely substance-free) exchanges with his fellow candidates, Fox’s moderating team and an intermittently cat-calling crowd in Cleveland.


If the nearly three hours of two-tiered GOP hopefuls proved anything, it was that the 17-candidate field is not only historically huge but uncommonly deep. It’s not clear if Republicans are getting tired of The Donald’s every-man-for-himself campaign (he kicked off the evening by saying he’d consider a third-party bid if he lost the GOP nomination fight) but beneath his overbearing presence the contours of a more conventional race, with lots of compelling characters jockeying for position in an unpredictable campaign, began to take shape.

Here are seven takeaways from the first GOP debate of 2016:

1. Jeb was meh.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush never had any intention of going after Donald Trump on Thursday night — and his team made it clear in the days before the debate that they are perfectly content to cruise in The Donald’s frothy wake until primary voters begin to tune in later this fall. But Bush’s earnest performance, while hardly disastrous, was so low-key it was, at times, hard to imagine him seizing the role of an alpha-male front-runner. He appeared jittery at the start (a sign, perhaps, of his long layoff from campaigning) and he behaved more like an incumbent defending his record than the hungry newcomer to the national stage he claims to be.

“I’m gonna run hard, run with heart, and run to win,” he said when moderator Bret Baier asked him the inevitable dynastic question. “I’m gonna have to earn this. Maybe the barrier — the bar’s even higher for me. That’s fine…” But during the night’s exchanges he spent more time talking up his long-ago actions as governor (reminding the audience that he had cut $19 billion in taxes, earning the nickname “Veto Corleone” for spending bills) than articulating a standout vision for the future.

2. Trump’s act is wearing thin – especially with women.

The developer-TV personality has been in the spotlight for decades, but Thursday marked the first time he ever appeared on a debate stage as a political candidate – and it showed. He didn’t wilt, rattle or implode, but his in-your-face routine fell a little flat in the debate hall – and he struggled to explain his muddled track record, especially when grilled by moderator Megyn Kelly about his long history of misogynistic public comments.

“You once told a contestant on Celebrity Apprentice it would be a pretty picture to see her on her knees. Does that sound to you like the temperament of a man we should elect as president?” Kelly asked.

Trump defended by attacking, as usual. “What I say is what I say,” he shot back. “And honestly Megyn, if you don’t like it, I’m sorry. I’ve been very nice to you, although I could probably maybe not be, based on the way you have treated me. But I wouldn’t do that.”

Yet his steely, squinting mask of unflappable self-assurance seemed to slipped a bit. Trump’s answers on a slew of questions about his record — his flip-flopping on the single-payer health insurance system, his onetime allegiance to the Democratic Party and his four business bankruptcies – verged on incoherence. His explained his longtime friendship with Bill and Hillary Clinton as a crass transaction. “With Hillary Clinton, I said, ‘be at my wedding’ and she came to my wedding,” he said. “You know why? She didn’t have a choice because I gave ... to [the Clinton charitable] foundation.”

Time will tell if primary voters are ready to move on, as the press and GOP establishment have long predicted. But the contrast between Trump and talented field of conservative governors and senators, who seemed to belie his contention that all politicians are criminals and idiots, wasn’t especially flattering. A focus group convened by Republican pollsters during the debate – a single snapshot that could prove meaningless — showed Trump tanking.

3. Paging Ted Cruz.

The deeply conservative Texas senator has a reputation as a ferocious debater — this is the man who recently called his own Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell a liar. But he chose to remain largely off to the side, perhaps to play against type, or to court Trump’s supporters should the front-runner fall.

4. The real Trump effect: Lots of fireworks, less substance.

Compared to the early Democratic debates of the 2008 cycle – wonkfests focused on health-care reform, the housing crisis and taxes – the GOP’s first 2016 debate seemed like, well, a reality show. If Republican National Committee officials have been concerned that Trump’s bombast would spread to the rest of the field, they needn’t have worried – Trump (and Sen. Rand Paul) threw most of Thursday’s punches. But the fixation on Trump – whose policy grasp remains the most superficial of all the candidates onstage (with the possible exception of Ben Carson) – dumbed-down the discussion.

The most notable exception: A genteel disagreement between Bush, who offered an earnest and detailed accounting of his support for the Common Core curriculum, and his friend, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who offered that reforms needed to “happen at the local level.”

5. John Kasich is emerging as a top-tier candidate.

The Ohio governor, the last heavyweight to jump into the 17-candidate pool, barely squeaked onto the debate stage, registering a just-good-enough 4 percent. He wasn’t exactly an electrifying presence Thursday but he was steady, folksy and spoke with the authority of someone who is in office at the helm of a battleground state. During a debate that featured near unanimity on most major issues, he was the one candidate to truly differentiate himself, saying that he respected the Supreme Court’s ruling in favor of same-sex marriage, a position that puts him in line with the party’s younger voters and the population at large.

“Guess what, I just went to a wedding of a friend of mine who happens to be gay,” he said to applause. “Because somebody doesn’t think the way I do, doesn’t mean that I can’t care about them or can’t love them. “

6. Rand Paul needed to attack – and he did.

Paul has had a rough couple of weeks: POLITICO recently reported that his campaign was struggling with management and personnel problems, and a few days before the debate a close Paul associate was indicted for allegedly trying to buy off an Iowa official on behalf of Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign. The Kentucky libertarian needed to show supporters and donors he still plans to fight and this he did, pounding on Trump in the debate’s opening minutes for refusing to pledge support for the GOP’s eventual nominee.

“Hey, look, look!” he shouted. “He’s already hedging his bet on the Clintons, OK? So if he doesn’t run as a Republican, maybe he supports Clinton, or maybe he runs as an independent …”

Target two was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is in a similar position – having to rehabilitate his candidacy after the Bridgegate scandal. When Christie, a former federal prosecutor, defended the government’s practice of collecting metadata to track down terrorists, Paul raised his voice again.

“You fundamentally misunderstand the Bill of Rights,” he said – and then blasted him for buddying up to President Obama in the days after Superstorm Sandy. “I know you gave him a big hug. If you want to give him a big hug again, go right ahead.”

7. Scott Walker was so-so – but had the best line of the night.

The blue-collar Wisconsin governor has made a virtue of his ability to quietly rack up support among Midwestern social and fiscal conservatives – especially in Iowa – but he was something of a plodder on the big stage. When the topic of the recent Russian hack of Pentagon computers, he had a zinger at the ready: “It’s sad to think right now, but probably the Russian and Chinese government know more about Hillary Clinton’s email server than do the members of the United States Congress,” he said, as the audience broke into laughter.