Longtime reader, infrequent poster. I am experimenting with longer-form writing on the NBA and wanted to post this for the community, hopefully, to entertain some of you through the dead period of the NBA (especially since we do not have a first-round pick in the draft). It's not entirely relevant to the current state of the Detroit Pistons, but many of the themes which permeate through the piece are relevant to all NBA teams. I am perpetually fascinated by the NBA draft and love breaking down prospects. If you guys like the content I'll try to bring more of these types of articles to the site over the next year.

Feel free to give me feedback in the comments. Enjoy!

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The Best Kept Secret in the Draft: Jaren Jackson Jr. is proto-Anthony Davis…and nobody is talking about it.

Jaren Jackson Jr. could get a general manager fired in the next three years… but it won’t be the GM of the team that drafts him. With the potential to become an Anthony Davis like force on both ends of the court, Jaren Jackson Jr. should be the number one pick in the 2018 NBA draft…but somehow he’s not even a lock to be picked in the top three.

To understand why Jaren Jackson Jr. is the perfect modern big man, you only need to look as far as the NBA finals. Since Kevin Durant joined the Warriors, the league has been enveloped with existential questions. Will competitive balance ever return? How many titles will the Warriors win? Is the big man going extinct? The Warriors supercharged the small ball era by deploying Draymond Green as a small ball five, the super switchable lynchpin that unlocked their juggernaut status. Then they doubled down and added Kevin Durant, an all-time great scorer who can play small ball five in a pinch. Now, when addressing top NBA prospects, only one question really matters. Could this player stay on the floor in the NBA finals?

Like Bill Simmons, I am a fan of reassessing rosters at the start of the playoffs. To have a shot you must have at least five "guys." In the modern NBA, this translates to…five players who I can roll with against a team like Golden State or Houston. If I were a general manager (now soliciting calls from NBA front offices…check me out on Linkedin), I would assess my own roster through this lens. In the same vein, if I were picking at the top of the NBA draft, I would need absolute assurance that my guy…my hopefully future franchise player…is going to be able to stay on the floor during winning time. The fact that this is even a conversation is a testament to how devastating Golden State is, and how large a shadow they cast over the rest of the league.

Would Deandre Ayton have been playable in crunch time in the NBA finals this past year? As much as I love Ayton as a prospect, I believe the answer is an unequivocal no. If Clint Capela could not stay on the floor against Golden State, Ayton as currently constructed has no hope. Ayton has significant questions on the defensive end where his lack of awareness and inability to protect the rim make him a liability. Ayton’s paltry 6.1% block percentage and a historically bad 1.0% steal percentage are alarming. Watching him get undressed defensively in Arizona’s upset loss to Buffalo in the NCAA tournament should send chills down Ryan McDonough’s spine.

Despite his reputation as an elite athlete, Ayton has serious issues translating his gifts defensively. Ayton struggles to squat into a low center of gravity on defense and plays with a rigid, upright posture. This is especially apparent on pick and rolls, where Ayton was prone to defensive gaffes. While quick enough to hedge, he struggles to flip his hips and change directions rapidly. When defending in space, he cannot quickly rise up and block shots.

Another serious question…who else in the top five of this draft could have played meaningful minutes against the Warriors? Doncic comes to mind immediately given his pedigree, size, skillset, and general badassery. But there are legitimate concerns about his defensive chops and athleticism. How about Bagley? Same story. Without an ability to stretch the floor or defend the rim, Bagley is a classic red flag tweener (looking at you Derrick Williams, Anthony Bennett, and Michael Beasley). Mo Bamba has the size and length to guard the paint but lacks the lateral quickness to defend the perimeter. And so we’re left with Jaren Jackson Jr.

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Searching for the Perfect Modern Big

If you could build the perfect "big" for the modern NBA, you’d use Anthony Davis as the template. Davis is the epitome of the unicorn wave now sweeping the NBA. Watching him lay-waste to the league after Boogie’s injury was a stark reminder of Davis’ status as a legitimate threat to Lebron’s stranglehold over the title as the league’s most dominant player. If the Kentucky version of Anthony Davis were in this upcoming draft, he’d be a lock for the number one pick. But what if I told you there was a proto-Anthony Davis available in this draft?

Jaren Jackson Jr. has a legitimate chance to be the best player in this draft. His frame, defensive prowess, skill level and youth give off serious Anthony Davis vibes. Every time I watch him I wonder…why can’t he be Anthony Davis in the NBA? Why will no one else make this comparison? Since I have no credibility to lose, let me be the first to volunteer to die on this hill… Jaren Jackson Jr. will be the best player from this draft in five years. Horrific injuries aside, there is almost no chance he isn’t a regular All-NBA defensive team member and a borderline all-star. That is his floor. But what about his ceiling?

A big part of our perception of a player’s "potential" is formed by narrative, and coming into this past season, Jackson was ranked below top-tier prospects like Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, and Bamba. He played power forward at Michigan State next to a 6’8 center who can’t shoot outside of ten feet. Jackson never had the chance to maximize his unique gifts as a college player. Davis, on the other hand, entered the NBA draft fresh off a dominant NCAA title run, adding fuel to the narrative that he was an absolutely cannot miss prospect. Part of what makes Anthony Davis so unique is his physical profile. So how does Jackson stack up?

Player Anthony Davis Jaren Jackson Jr. Age when drafted 19.3 18.9 Height without shoes 6’9.25" 6’9.75" Height with shoes 6’10.5" 6’11.25" Weight 221.8lbs 236lbs Wingspan 7’5.5" 7’5.25" Standing Reach 9’0" 9’2" Body Fat % 7.9 7.2 Hand Length 9.0" 10.0" Hand Width 8.5" 10.0"

Holy shit, Jackson is a freak even by Anthony Davis standards. Jackson is nearly six months younger than Davis at the same stage of development, almost an inch taller, stronger, with a higher standing reach and catchers mitt sized hands. Like Davis, he has a body that looks perfectly crafted for basketball, complete with long arms, thick legs, a narrow waist and the shoulders of an NFL defensive lineman. Jackson has the frame to add another 15-20lbs of muscle without losing any quickness, which would put him in the 250-255lb range (the same as Deandre Ayton).

Jackson’s youth is remarkable. He won’t turn 19 until mid-September. He is almost 14 months younger than Deandre Ayton. To put it another way, Jackson could have returned to Michigan State for his sophomore year, entered next years draft, and he’d still be younger than Ayton is now. Jackson is also nearly 6 months younger than Bagley, who is widely lauded for reclassifying into college a year "early." I can’t fathom why this is not a bigger predraft narrative because NBA front offices know that age matters. To accurately compare Jackson to Ayton you have to ask yourself…what would a Sophomore version of Jackson do in college basketball?

The Five Position Defender

So Jackson is on paper a younger, taller, stronger approximation of Kentucky Anthony Davis. Whew. But can he play? Jackson’s candidacy as a number one pick starts on the defensive side of the ball. He combines his freakish measurements with the outstanding functional athleticism necessary to smother guards on the perimeter and swat everything in sight. On his first collegiate bucket, Jackson uses his excellent defensive awareness to anticipate a high arcing pass to his man and high points the ball like a wide receiver. Seamlessly he tips it to himself and transfers his momentum into the open court, leading to a fast break dunk. This play, in a nutshell, illustrates Jackson’s immense potential as a perimeter defender. Unlike Ayton who struggles to dip low into a defensive stance, Jackson uses textbook defensive posture and incredible lateral quickness to shadow much smaller players on the perimeter.

Jackson’s best-documented defensive attribute is his ability to protect the rim. He shattered the single-season block record at Michigan State, swatting 106 shots, averaging nearly 6 blocks per 40 minutes and posting an elite block percentage of 14.3% (second best in the NCAA last season behind West Virginia’s Sagaba Konate, better than Anthony Davis’ 13.7% from his lone season at Kentucky and better than Bamba’s 13.1%). Jackson leverages elite timing to block shots from every position on the floor. Using his closing speed, Jackson routinely lured guards into thinking they had an angle to finish near the hoop before swooping in to block the shot. Jackson also frequently blocked three-pointers and all manner of jump shots. Despite a 5" shorter wingspan than Bamba, Jackson was a more effective and versatile shot blocker due to his superior athleticism and instincts.

Jackson readily projects as an elite defender at the next level. His defensive skill set is the rarest in all in the NBA; a player with the size of a center who is both an elite shot blocker and an elite perimeter defender. The only player who regularly can do this at near 7 feet tall in the NBA is…Anthony Davis. Both Durant and Giannis can offer similar flashes, but neither player could survive a full season of playing center. Al Horford is an incredible defender in space but is not an elite rim protector. Rudy Gobert is an elite shot blocker and a master of verticality but is regularly abused off the dribble. Draymond Green is an outlier, a 6’7 fire hydrant who defies his physical limitations to act as both an elite perimeter defender and a solid rim protector. But even Green’s defensive versatility pales in comparison to his fellow Michigan State Spartan, Jaren Jackson Jr.

A Unicorn in Training on Offense

On offense, Jackson possesses unicorn skills but is still growing into who he can become. Despite unconventional shot mechanics, Jackson shot 40% from three his freshman season on 3 attempts per game (by comparison Davis shot 15% on 1 attempt per game). Jackson also shot 80% from the foul line (Davis shot 70%) suggesting a translatable stroke. Jackson is way ahead of Davis when it comes to shooting ability. Consider that it took Davis until his sixth season in the NBA to become an above league average three-point shooter. Jackson has the shooting chops to stretch defenses from day one. Imagine Jackson in six years, with NBA shooting coaches. *Swoons*

Watching Jackson effortless pop behind the three-point line to drain threes while also blocking shots is…modern basketball porn. His shooting ability immediately makes Jackson a matchup nightmare. Which current players can be full-time elite perimeter defenders, elite shot blockers, and reliable three-point shooters? Durant can be an elite defender in spurts. Kristaps Porzingas is a good rim protector and a great shooter, but he’s nowhere near the perimeter defender. Coming off a torn ACL and standing well above 7 feet tall, Porzingas has real long-term durability questions. Karl Anthony Towns is an offensive savant but a defensive turnstile. Joel Embiid is a great post defender and offensive post presence but isn’t yet a reliable perimeter shooter or defender… who also has legitimate injury concerns. Giannis Antetekuompo is basically incredible at everything except shooting (and it may not even matter if he ever learns). Ben Simmons is not a rim protector or a three-point shooter (or really…any sort of shooter). Honestly, the only player I can think of who regularly checks all these boxes is…Anthony Davis.

Using Anthony Davis as a template helps when imagining Jackson’s future role in an NBA offense. Davis feasts in the pick and roll, using his mobility and perimeter game to stretch defenses to their breaking point. Placing Davis in a pick and roll is a guaranteed way to generate a quality shot. Like Durant’s 15-foot turnaround jumper, Davis is nearly unguardable with the ball in the paint, defenders just have to hope he misses. With the same essential physical tools and a better jump shot, Jackson offers similar nightmare potential. His ability to space the floor behind the arc will deform and stretch defenses to their breaking point, unclogging the paint for teammates. Near the rim, Jackson has shown the ability to finish with authority when given a chance to gather himself. Some scouts have noted that he does not possess elite vertical lift, especially when compared to someone like Deandre Ayton or Anthony Davis. While likely only 80% as explosive as Anthony Davis vertically, Jackson is still capable of making incredible plays above the rim.

Jackson takes a pass from beyond the arc and uses a quick shot fake to keep his defender off balance. The threat of a three-pointer frees Jackson to blow by his defender off the dribble. Thanks to his long strides Jackson goes from beyond the three-point line to deep in the paint using his best Giannis impression to rise for the big slam. Here Jackson uses his massive hands to handle a high-velocity pass from Miles Bridges and immediately dunks through his defender. Jackson is capable of regularly beating big men off the dribble. Here Jackson uses a quick jab step to get into the paint before going Mozgov all over his defender. Few NBA players can make this sort of play at the rim. Like Giannis, Jackson covers incredible distances with each stride, allowing him to go coast to coast for incredible slams in traffic. Jackson’s strength also allows him to power through defenders in the paint. Jackson even flashes crafty ballhandling skills, allowing him to take smaller defenders off the bounce. If you don’t watch that and start salivating…there is something wrong with you.

Despite his reputation as a limited back to the basket player, Jackson produced well on his limited post opportunities in college. Jackson put up 1.22 points per possession on his post up attempts per Synergy, ranking 24th in the country out of more than 1200 players. Mostly relying on his length and a rudimentary hook shot, Jackson has room to grow in this department. Jackson also thrived off the ball, averaging 1.2 points per possession as a cutter.

Glue Guy Grit With an NBA Pedigree

At the top of the draft, everything matters to NBA front offices, including intangibles. Here Jackson outshines many of his peers. At Michigan State, he was forced to play out of position at power forward but showed no signs of frustration. Despite erratic minutes due to foul trouble and a crowded frontcourt rotation, Jackson endeared himself to his teammates and coaches. Jackson is a classic late-blooming prospect who steadily climbed the recruiting rankings throughout high school and college. He’s the rare player who combines a blue-collar attitude with exceptional physical tools. Jackson has another huge advantage in the intangibles category; NBA pedigree. The son of 13 year NBA veteran and former NBA champion Jaren Jackson Sr., Jackson Jr. grew up around the NBA. This means that from day one, Jackson will understand how an NBA locker room works, how to survive an NBA season, and how to build good habits.

The Holes

Admittedly Jackson’s game is not without warts. As an offensive player, his decision making has to improve, as he averaged nearly twice as many turnovers as assists. Some of the turnovers stemmed from playing out of position and dealing with poor floor spacing, but it is something he will have to improve upon to reach his full potential as a pick and roll nightmare. In college Jackson often appeared to force the issue when handling the ball, driving into tight spaces without a plan.

Compared to Davis, Jackson is only an average rebounder at this stage of his development. He often neglected to box out in favor of using his massive size/wingspan advantage to get the job done. But unlike shot blocking, college rebounding numbers do not translate seamlessly to the NBA. For instance, Andre Drummond is the best rebounder of his generation, but in college, he posted some of the worst rebounding numbers of a big-man selected in the lottery over the past decade.

Jackson also has an inconsistent motor offensively (aka the reverse Karl-Anthony Towns). In the games when Jackson was fully engaged at Michigan State on both ends of the floor, he was a force of nature. But too often he deferred to his teammates and failed to take advantage of his size/skill mismatches on the offensive end of the court. While Jackson is an elite physical specimen, he isn’t yet considered a high-flyer. While he may never be as explosive vertically as Davis, Jackson more than makes up for the difference with his height and standing reach. It’s also important to remember that Jackson is young and he may still be growing.

High Floor, Higher Ceiling

In a draft with five players who could legitimately become the best player, Jackson is the best bet to hit. His floor is an Al Horford type player who can defend five positions and provide backline support for an elite defense. His ceiling is a better shooting Anthony Davis…a near seven foot tall, switchable, swarming, three-point shooting freak. Jackson’s competition atop this class all boast significant questions about their game. Doncic has the pedigree, swag, court vision, and ballhandling to be a star, but he’s only an average athlete with an inconsistent 3 point shot, and he loves nachos. Bagley is a classic tweener who lacks the two most essential skills for a modern big man, shooting, and rim protection. He compounds this by only being an average perimeter defender and lacking the bulk or length to play center. Ayton has a body crafted by the basketball gods, is a dominant rebounder, and an imposing force in the paint with emerging touch out to the perimeter. But he’s also 14 months older than Jackson and is a defensive sieve who lacks the lateral quickness and instincts to guard smaller players. Bamba might be an alien with an absurd 7’10 wingspan, but he lacks Jackson’s shooting touch, lateral mobility, and defensive instincts.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is going to get an NBA general manager fired. But it won’t be because he busts. Fluke injuries aside, in five years there’s a good chance we’ll look back on this draft and wonder how a bigger, younger, stronger, better shooting Anthony Davis clone didn’t go number one overall. Welcome to Jaren Jackson Jr. island, I’ll save space for you.