Thousands of delegates from across South Africa will gather on Saturday in a conference centre south-west of Johannesburg to choose a new leader for the African National Congress (ANC), the party that led the freedom struggle against apartheid and has governed for 23 years.



The mundane surroundings belie the significance of the decisions the men and women gathered there will make. They are likely to determine South Africa’s next president and the trajectory of the troubled “rainbow nation” for decades.

Competing to replace Jacob Zuma, the beleaguered president of the ANC since 2007 and of South Africa since 2009, are his ex-wife and party stalwart Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa, deputy-president and a wealthy businessman.

The battle could split the party. There have been bitter clashes in the run-up to the conference, with fists, furniture and lawsuits employed as weapons by rival factions.

The conference threatens to be acrimonious, forcing both candidates to issue last-minute calls for unity. “This is a democratic process … it is not a fight among enemies,” said Dlamini-Zuma at her final major speech before the conference. Ramaphosa has stressed the party “should rally behind whoever is elected”.

The winner will be chosen by a secret ballot of about 5,000 delegates, most selected by local branches around the country. An announcement is expected on Sunday morning, but it may be delayed.

The two candidates have very different styles, and offer party members dramatically contrasting visions of the future of South Africa.

Ramaphosa, broadly seen as the favourite to win, is relaxed and conversational in public. A former trade union leader, the 65-year-old was born within a mile or so of the conference centre where he may take the final steps to the highest political office in South Africa.

Favoured by the business community and international investors, Ramaphosa played a key role in historic negotiations in the 1990s to end the racist and repressive apartheid regime before launching a business career that made him one of South Africa’s wealthiest men. He is seen as a centrist who is neither corrupt nor committed to disruptive economic change.

Though this may please a growing number of middle-class, urban South Africans, it may play against him among grassroots ANC members.

President Jacob Zuma, president of the ANC since 2007 and of South Africa since 2009. Photograph: Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters

“Cyril is a multibillionaire and he got that money from the very same people who oppressed us so we are afraid that he will more serve the people who gave him what he has today than the people on the ground,” said Billy Tsotetsi, a veteran ANC activist from West Rand, as he queued for accreditation to the conference.

Dlamini-Zuma, 68, who was chair of the African Union until earlier this year, is a former home, foreign and health minister. She lacks her rival’s charm and has made clear her intent to pursue a radical programme to redistribute wealth and resources in what remains a deeply unequal society.

“The delegates must elect leaders that are going to use the ANC as an instrument for the oppressed to make sure they can get into the mainstream of the economy,” she said last week.

Dlamini-Zuma’s critics say she is committed to an outdated ideological dogma and would pursue her former husband’s failing economic and political policies. Many suggest the 68 year-old, who had four children with the president before divorcing in 1998, would seek to protect the outgoing leader from a series of criminal prosecutions for corruption.

But Carien du Plessis, a respected political journalist who recently published a biography of Dlamini-Zuma, said the former medical doctor might well forge her own path if elected.

“She is a very experienced and shrewd politician. A lot of people support her because she is seen as a proxy for Zuma and a continuation of Zuma’s regime. But I think she sees it as a political vehicle she has to use,” Du Plessis said.

Branches account for 90% of the conference delegates. The remainder comes from the ANC’s women’s, youth and veterans leagues, as well as a handful of provincial party officials.

There are widespread fears that rival factions will attempt to sway delegates through bribery and intimidation.

Officials close to Ramaphosa said they would “lock down” loyal delegates in hotels with security guards hired to prevent “untoward advances”.

“There is so much at stake and the two candidates are very close in the race,” Amanda Gouws, a politics professor at Stellenbosch University, said.

The ANC still dominates the South African political landscape, but polled only 54% in local elections last year in its worst result since 1994.

Any new leader will have to move fast to bolster a flagging economy and convince voters their lives can improve under further ANC government.

If Ramaphosa wins the party leadership battle, many analysts believe Zuma will be forced out within months. If he loses, the ANC could split.

South Africa’s principal opposition parties – the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters – hope to exploit the ANC’s weaknesses in the 2019 election, with one possible outcome being a coalition government.

“Going forward, it is less a question of who becomes president of the party than if the party can mount a united campaign for the elections. If it can’t, then it will be in deep trouble,” said Du Plessis.