Al Jefferson left Sunday’s tilt against the Milwaukee Bucks with a left calf injury, and on Monday it was confirmed that this calf strain would relegate Jefferson to the shelf for 2-3 weeks. Al will be joining Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as another Hornet standout to miss a significant chunk of time in 2015. As predicted here, the Hornets have played with a much different style than in years past, both shooting the ball at will from distance and focusing on ball movement. Al Jefferson’s unique, yet gorgeous, style in the post seems to oppose this new Hornet philosophy, but the 11 year veteran remains a critical piece to the Charlotte equation. These next few weeks will be critical to the development of this team still finding its identity. Although it seems counterintuitive to say the absence of a player just two years removed from an All-NBA season could benefit his team, December has the chance to be the most valuable month of 2015 for Charlotte.

Although his minutes (30 mpg to 26 mpg) and points (16.6 ppg to 13.7 ppg) are down this season compared to a year ago, Big Al remains a crucial player. He is third in scoring and the second leading rebounder on the team thus far in 2015. These numbers will be tough to replicate, and no one expects Cody Zeller, Spencer Hawes, or Frank Kaminsky to do so. The team has made a conscious effort to pick up the pace, spread the floor, and take more shots from deep. Al’s absence will aid this development out of necessity. Those three names expected to pick up the slack will do so in this new-look offense, as their games are more suited to the style than Al’s game is. So how has Al able to still get his numbers despite a shift in mentality ill-suited to his game?

Look no further than the first quarter for the answer to the above question. When you watch the first quarters of Hornets games, you will notice that the play is markedly different than in other quarters. Not only does Al see the floor more in this opening frame than any other quarter, he is relied upon more than nearly every other player in the league. While Golden State can walk out of the locker room and start firing threes, the Hornets prefer to ease into their offense utilizing the All-Star on the left block, knowing that they have Al to rely on when the team needs to get a clean look at the beginning of games. When filtering out players who have made fewer than 15 appearances, these are the ten players taking the highest percentage of their team’s shots while on the floor in the opening quarter:

So even though he is playing less and receiving fewer touches, 10 fewer touches/game than last year to be exact, he is expected to score when he does get the ball. This shows as his points per touch has risen from .372 to .394 in 2015. When comparing lineup combinations, Hornets fans should be optimistically curious about how these next few weeks go. Looking at qualifying lineups on NBA.com, the three highest offensively rated lineups (points/100 possessions) do not include Al. While only playing a total of 97 minutes (not a big enough sample to rely on), all three of these lineups are over 117 points/100 possessions. These lineups include key bench pieces such as Jeremy Lamb and Jeremy Lin, and their playing style is a sign of things to come without Al. Obviously, other variables such as opposing starters are at play, but it is tough to look at the below table and not see the effects of Al Jefferson on both ends of the floor.

The Hornets are 10-7 this year, and have found themselves protecting leads down the stretch instead of playing catch up. This table shows that coach Steve Clifford is not afraid of keeping Al on the bench late in games when the Hornets need to emphasize defense and even quick scores. Against the Knicks earlier this month, it was a combination of Marvin Williams, Spencer Hawes, and Cody Zeller on the floor for a key stop leading to a game winning basket on a pass from Hawes to Zeller.

Not surprisingly, the Hornets have a better defensive rating when Jefferson is off the court. Often, he is late on rotations on the perimeter and slow to help in the paint. Check this play out against the Knicks.

Carmelo uses a show from Robin Lopez to shake his defender, Nicolas Batum. Once Anthony is past Batum, the lane is clear as Al shows no interest in trying to slow Carmelo. Any of the potential replacements have shown much more energy on the defensive end and will certainly step to Carmelo in a similar situation.

In this clip from last year, look at how the Hornets defended Steph Curry.

When Al is 15 feet away from the screen, you are asking to be dissected by the league MVP. When Big Al is involved in a pick and roll, the on ball defender is forced to go over the screen to not allow the open three pointer. This leaves the drive open and Al is not quick enough to recover once the pass goes to the screen setter.

When looking at the NBA Stat’s on/off comparisons for each Hornet, the second highest offensive rating for an opponent[1] has come when Al Jefferson is on the court, as opponents are scoring 104.4 points/100 possessions. When Al has been off of the court, opponents have an offensive rating of just 94.2 points/possession. For the 2015-16 season, only the winless Philadelphia 76ers (90.8 points/100 possessions) sport a worse offensive rating than that 94.2 number the Hornets are posting with Jefferson off of the floor.

Frank Kaminsky (+12.4 Net Rating in 232 minutes), Spencer Hawes (+2.2 NetRtg in 259 minutes), and Tyler Hansbrough (+21 NetRtg in just 25 minutes) all have a higher net rating (offensive rating while on floor – defensive rating while on floor) than Big Al’s +1.9 Net Rating. Somewhat interestingly, Cody Zeller has a -2.1 Net Rating in the 313 minutes he has been on the floor.

How the Hornets Should Handle Al’s Absence

Prior to 2015, the Hornets would not have had this sort of choice due to a lack of depth. This past offseason saw Charlotte build their bench and now they have numerous candidates to step into a more prominent role. There are two options that I see the Hornets considering for how to replace Al Jefferson in the coming weeks. Fans should not put too much stock in how they play the Warriors, as Al likely would not have seen too much of the court due to the style the Warriors force upon their opponents. The choice likely comes down to how they want to affect the current rotation and style of the starting 5 and bench units.

If they simply go with the next man up, we would likely see Cody Zeller assume the starting role. The Hornets drafted him to be a starter and after seeing him start the second half against the Bucks after Al got hurt, it likely will be time to see how Zeller handles the starting duties with this roster (he had 48 starts under his belt entering this season). Many fans do not want Spencer Hawes to be dealt additional minutes, but I see this as being a necessary evil. Additional minutes over these next few weeks could be most critical for Hawes and rookie Frank Kaminsky.

Many fans are calling for Kaminsky to get the nod over Hawes but he will have to earn it first, and now might just be the time. While they have similar stats shooting the ball, Hawes has been the superior rebounder and passer. But if Kaminsky can use the extra minutes he will receive, he may move from Hawes’ equal in the minute distribution department to taking some of Hawes’ minutes once Al returns.

If Steve Clifford decides to get creative, he can keep his rotations nearly the same by substituting Tyler Hansbrough into the starting lineup. No one is expecting this move, but playing Hansbrough would maintain the current substitution pattern, and of the four fill-in candidates, Hansbrough’s game does resemble (juuust barely) Al’s more than the others. This would give the starting defense a boost as well, and getting Hansbrough some extended run would allow Clifford to see what exactly he has from the Tar Heel who has logged just 25 minutes this season. While this scenario is unlikely, Al’s absence will mean more minutes for Hansbrough in some form or fashion.

After a disappointing 2014-15 season, the team weathered the injury news of their top defender, MKG, more impressively than anyone could have imagined during the start of this season. Now, squarely in the Eastern playoff race, they will lose their most consistent offensive player for at least two weeks, and how they handle that will likely define the rest of this year, and seasons to follow as Jefferson will potentially be looking for a huge payout when the salary cap spikes following this season. If the Hornets feel comfortable moving away from a player with the skill set of Al Jefferson, he may find himself in a city outside of Charlotte, with these next three weeks possibly being a glimpse of the future.

[1] The def. rating is 104.7 when PJ Hairston is on the floor.

Header image from: http://www.aljefferson25.com/2014/12/29/four-wins-charlotte-drops-two/