It’s the 25th of June @ 3:45PM in San Francisco. It seems like a normal day. The Giants (46-32) are playing the San Diego Padres (34-45). Tim Lincecum (5-5, 4.90 ERA) will be pitching for the Giants, Ian Kennedy (5-8, 3.90 ERA) for the Padres. Lincecum has been inconsistent all year. He is coming off a four earned run allowed loss in Arizona. With the Giants slumping hard and the Dodgers making up ground quickly Bruce Bochy wanted nothing more than Lincecum having a solid outing. He had better than a solid outing, he had an amazing outing. Just shy of a year after throwing his first no-hitter (also against the San Diego Padres) he threw another one. Only this time he was as close to perfect as you can be. He was one walk in the second away from a perfect game. His final game score was a 92. To put that in perspective less than one percent of game pitched have game scores over 90. Following that game Lincecum’s next three starts have been great. A no run, 4-hit, two walk, eight innings pitched win against the St.Louis Cardinals, a six-inning one earned run outing against the Padres and a 7 inning, 3 hit, 2 walk performance against the Padres. Up until Timmy allowed a home-run to Brooks Conrad of the Padres in his second game after the no-hitter. Tim had a scoreless inning streak of 23.3. That was his longest since 2009 when he went 29 without allowing a run. This has gotten Giants fans asking is Tim Lincecum legit?

Sadly I have to say that no Timmy has not turned his career around. He has been the benefactor of facing bad offenses in good pitching parks and a lot of luck. Timmy’s last three opponents (San Diego, St.Louis and Arizona) are near the bottom of almost every offensive category. The Diamondbacks are 21st in Runs and 21st in Homeruns. The Cardinals are 29th in Runs, 29th in Home Runs, 27th In Total Bases and 24th in OPS. San Diego is even worse (remember Timmy played San Diego twice!) 30th in Runs, 28th in Home Runs, 30th in Total Bases, 30th in OPS. Timmy has pitched thrice in AT&T and the second game against San Diego was in Petco. Both stadiums are known for favouring pitchers. Finally we can’t discount the effect of luck in the equation, mainly BABIP and LOB%. For those who don’t know BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is used to determine how many balls put into play turn into hits. LOB % (Left on base percentage) is used to figure out how many men who reach first don’t reach home. A spike in either can be a sign of regression in the future. This season Timmy’s BABIP has been .281 and his LOB% is 75.2. The last three starts his BABIP has been .125 and his LOB% had been 100%. So basically he has been extremely lucky. I think, sadly that these three factors are the explanation for why Timmy has pitched so well in his last three starts as nothing else has shown him making a change that would cause this run to be considered legit. I checked for an increase of velocity, more break on his pitches, different release point nothing points at Lincecum changing. His next start is scheduled for the 20th against the Marlins in Miami. They have a top 12 offense and he’ll be pitching in a hitters park. His luck might be running out.

Let’s hope I’m wrong cause the Giants need him.

Zachary John/ @agiantamongjays

Stats courtesy of Brooks Baseball, ESPN, Baseball Reference, Fan Graphs and MLB.com