The federal Liberals are now trailing the NDP and Conservatives, who are tied for the lead in voter support, according to a new Forum Research poll.

The latest results, taken from a random sampling of 1,200 Canadian voters show the Conservatives and New Democrats tied at 32 per cent support each.

About one-quarter would vote Liberal (26 per cent) if a federal election was held today, the poll suggests.

The federal election is set for Oct. 19.

If these results are projected onto a 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would seize a minority government of 155 seats — 15 short of a majority, according to Forum.

The New Democrats would win 120 seats, and the Liberals 59.

In tracking the race between the three leading parties, Forum poll results over the past year have shown the Liberal support under Justin Trudeau going from being comfortably in front, to a three-way tie, to third place.

“We have said the electorate is looking for a fair fight, and they’re dispensing their support accordingly, across all three parties,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in a news release.

“If these small shifts in electoral favour keep occurring, no predictions about this election will be possible.”

The poll also shows that when asked who would make the best prime minister, 27 per cent of respondents said NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, 25 per cent said Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and 23 per cent said Trudeau.

Three in 10 respondents predict the Conservatives will win the next election.

More than a quarter — 27 per cent — of respondents who voted Liberal in the last federal election in 2011 will vote NDP this time, which is twice the proportion that will switch between other parties, the poll shows.

The poll was conducted July 5-7 using an interactive voice-response telephone survey. The results are considered accurate plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

The weighting formula has been shared with the Star, and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.

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