Quarterly Office for National Statistics figures to be published amid suggestions migration into Britain may have peaked

Ministers will be looking for signs that European Union migration to Britain for work has peaked when the next set of quarterly migration figures are published on Thursday.

The last set of figures published by the Office for National Statistics in November showed that annual net migration into the UK hit a record level of 336,000 in June 2015 – a rise of 82,000 over the previous month.

The rise in net immigration was split between a net increase of 42,000 new immigrants from within the EU, mostly for work, and a net increase of 36,000 in new immigrants from outside Europe.

The new figures are likely to be seized on by both sides in the debate over Britain’s future in Europe with the numbers closely scrutinised for new trends.

Jonathan Portes of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said one issue to watch out for was whether EU migration for work had began to fall back from its historical high. “Despite the lurid headlines about 2 million EU workers, the latest labour force survey data suggested that the relative attractiveness of the UK labour market might have finally peaked,” he said in his blog.

The ONS’s recently published labour market statistics showed that the number of nationals of other EU countries working in Britain first passed the 2 million mark between April and June last year and has since appeared to plateau at about 2.1 million. The latest figures for net migration into the UK, which will also cover the third quarter of last year, may confirm this picture.

The publication of the figures will also renew pressure on David Cameron to drop his pledge to reduce the net immigration figure below 100,000 and may increase pressure from within the cabinet to exclude students from the arbitrary target. Student immigration remained relatively stable at 192,000 for the 12 months to June 2015.

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Home Office ministers blamed the last set of record net immigration figures on too few overseas students leaving at the end of their courses and too many British employers remaining overly reliant on foreign workers. However, the Institute of Directors and other business organisations defended their record in hiring overseas staff to fill gaping skills shortages.

Marley Morris of the Institute for Public Policy Research said the new figures were likely to still be about three times higher than the government’s target, with EU immigration accounting for about 40% of the inflow.

“It is crucial for this referendum that both sides are honest about EU migration. It is doubtful that the ‘emergency brake’ will significantly reduce EU migration, which is likely to continue to be high if the UK remains in the EU. Likewise, it is unclear how EU migration policy would work if the UK left the EU: if the UK discarded free movement rules then it would have more control over EU migration but, without drastic action, would most likely not come close to meeting the government’s target,” said Morris.