Putin makes clear in marathon question and answer session that he does not expect Greece to veto renewal of sanctions

Putin held another in his series of marathon question and answer sessions on 16th April 2015.

Since this time there were no pressing issues, the session had less of the sense of drama of some others.

Obama's "red line"

Against a background of a steadily improving economy, Putin was relaxed and confident. On the Ukrainian conflict he had nothing new to say.

Putin did however make one point the importance of which has been largely missed.

Putin made clear he expects sanctions to continue beyond this year.

This is the official view of the Russian government whose economic projections are based on sanctions remaining in place throughout 2015 and beyond.

Even allowing for the fact that Putin also said that he Ukrainian conflict is the pretext for the sanctions rather than their cause, that means Putin does not expect the Ukrainian conflict to end this year. Even if the Ukrainian conflict is only a pretext for the sanctions, it is difficult to see how they could continue if the pretext for them no longer exists.

What that means is that the fear some people still have that Russia will sell out Novorossia in return for getting the sanctions lifted has no basis. Clearly no such deal is envisaged or in preparation. Putin in fact gave no hint of such a deal during his question and answer session and nor has any other Russian official. Instead he insisted on Kiev’s full implementation of the Minsk accords.

Putting that aside, Putin’s comments also show that the Russians do not expect Greece’s new Syriza led government to veto the renewal of the EU’s sectoral sanctions in June. Claims about some sort of pending deal whereby Russia provides financial support to Greece in return for Greece vetoing the sanctions are clearly wrong. Since it is a certainty sanctions were discussed during Greek Prime Minister Tsipras’s recent visit to Moscow, this must mean Tsipras told Putin not to expect Greece to veto the sanctions when they come up for renewal in June.

What that means is that the expectations (or fears) some have of a fundamental realignment of Greece’s relationships with Russia and the West also have no basis. I am sure no one of importance in Moscow ever thought they did.

I make these points because there has been an excess of optimism recently that the sanctions were going away. Putin’s comments show that optimism is misplaced. The economic results of the first quarter of this year show that their impact has anyway been grossly exaggerated and that the Russian economy can prosper despite them.