By Christopher Coats

Tumbling to new lows as 2015 draws to a close, the market value of publicly traded U.S. coal companies continued to collapse over roughly the last two months, falling more than 27% since early October, according to an SNL Energy analysis.

The decline, amounting to a drop from $6.65 billion on Oct. 5 to just $4.82 billion on Nov. 24, offers stark evidence of the domestic industry's sharp decline since 2011 and provides a clearer picture of which producers may be able to survive into the coming year.

The November figure represents a 92.3% drop since April 2011, seen as a high point for the industry before a long and sustained collapse brought on by a host of regulatory and market challenges.

Chief among those on bankruptcy watch, Arch Coal Inc. saw its market value fall more than $50 million during the two-month period, dropping from $74.1 million to $22.4 million in late November. The company has recently struggled to remain afloat over the past year, including a failed debt exchange offer, which collapsed under pressure from senior lenders.

With few options in sight, the company has signaled that it could be forced to file for bankruptcy in the "near term." Offering a more specific date, a group of lenders aligned with an investment management firm are reportedly seeking control of the distressed coal company in a deal that could put Arch into bankruptcy by Jan. 15, 2016.

If Arch does take that path, it will join a growing number of U.S. producers who have been forced to seek bankruptcy protection over the last year.

In addition to high-profile cases like Walter Energy Inc., Patriot Coal Corp. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc., the domestic sector has seen a handful of smaller scale bankruptcies since the beginning of 2015, including Covington Coal Co. LLC, Xinergy Ltd., Grass Creek Coal Co., Birmingham Coal & Coke Co. Inc. and eastern Kentucky coal mining company A & M Coal Co Inc.

For both Walter and Alpha, bankruptcy protection did little to slow their value slide. Since Oct. 5 to the latest analysis, Walter fell from $6.1 million to about $3.0 million, while Alpha dropped from $7.3 million to $4.0 million.

Patriot was once public, but went private after emerging from its first bankruptcy case in 2014. It was not included in this analysis.

Unfortunately for companies like Arch, industry observers have offered little hope of a near-term recovery. In late November, UBS Securities Canada Inc. offered an extended timeline for any North American coal market recovery citing oversupply, waning export demand and low pricing, but found some reason for hope down the road.

"Based on investor conversations we believe there is a healthy dose of skepticism about any near-term coal market recovery, however beyond 2016 we believe the market may expect a steeper pace of coal price recovery predicated on supply cuts, anticipated increases in U.S. natural gas prices, and a potential recovery in Chinese demand," UBS wrote.

Some producers preserved value better than others

Still atop those publicly traded U.S. coal companies, CONSOL Energy Inc. saw its market value decline by 30% from early October, falling to $1.72 billion on Nov. 24. Earlier this year, CONSOL spun off its Pennsylvania coal operations into a master limited partnership known as CNX Coal Resources LP, adding another company to the list of companies in the SNL analysis.

CNX Coal finished November as one of the only U.S. firms included in the analysis to remain virtually unchanged, edging down from $272.6 million to $272.2 million.

Continuing its decline from last year, Alliance Resource Partners LP's market capitalization slid to $1.29 billion in November from $1.68 billion the previous month.

While Rhino Resource Partners LP saw its value sliced in half over the two-month period, from $25.7 million to $11.1 million, more modest losses were seen at Hallador Energy Co. and Cloud Peak Energy Inc.

Hallador's market value shrunk from $217.9 million to $192.7 million, while Cloud Peak's fell from $176.2 million to $163.3 million.

Collapsing values strengthens divestment campaigns

The industry's sustained decline has indirectly strengthened recent arguments for divestment by providing a clear connection between investment losses and exposure to the coal sector.

Over the last year, coal opponents have scored a series of headline-grabbing financial victories regarding divestment decisions on the part of investment and public institutions.

In addition to a number of universities and local communities, high-profile cases like California's largest public worker retirements funds and New York City's pension funds have provided ammunition to those hoping to reduce financial exposure to the industry.

Those opponents have used the industry's shrinking value to justify these efforts, arguing that sustaining coal industry investments will only lead to further losses.

Unlike earlier analyses of market value, this latest SNL Energy review no longer includes James River Coal Co., which filed for bankruptcy protection in April 2014 before seeking buyers for its remaining mines.

This analysis also no longer includes Ohio-based thermal coal producer Oxford Resource Partners LP, which was acquired by Westmoreland Coal Co.and renamed Westmoreland Resource Partners LP.