What happens if the government loses the vote?

While nothing has been confirmed, the consensus is that the deal will be put to MPs in mid-December before the Christmas break and the odds of the government losing appear high.

If the Parliament doesn't approve the Brexit deal, then one possible scenario is there is a snap election, which could feasibly see Labour elected into power

In this case, one possible scenario is that Parliament votes for a snap election. For this to happen, two-thirds of MPs would need to vote in favour of a no-confidence motion, which implies that a large chunk of Conservative lawmakers would need to support the idea. To us, this seems unlikely. While many Conservatives may oppose the deal, a snap election could feasibly see Labour elected into power, who may well opt to pursue a much softer stance on Brexit. This option may appear even more unattractive to Tory Brexiteers than the deal itself.

But even if an election doesn't take place, then the political pressure for Theresa May to return to the negotiating table is likely to be immense.

The problem is that the EU is unlikely to be in the mood to shift position – particularly on the legally-binding issues such as the Irish backstop and the UK’s financial liabilities. So apart from some cosmetic changes on the political declaration – a vague document that will outline the ambition for future trade talks – it’s unlikely that Theresa May will be able to yield many more concessions.

If an election doesn't take place, then the political pressure for Theresa May to return to the negotiating table is likely to be immense - but the EU is unlikely to be in the mood to shift position

That said, if a slightly-amended deal was put to Parliament on a date much closer to March, then with little (if not no) time to go back to the negotiating table, MPs may feel obliged to vote through the agreement, simply to avoid the economic risks presented by the ‘no deal’ scenario.