A Hamilton shopkeeper, Sandip Patel has a fractured skull after being struck with a machete in an aggravated robbery.

Cigarette robberies are set to get worse, experts say.

The increasing value of tobacco has created a flourishing black market, leaving dairies with little option but to fortify or abandon the product.

Aggravated robberies jumped 87 per cent in the year to May 2017, with more than 1200 counted nationwide.

CHRISTEL YARDLEY/STUFF Hamilton shopkeeper, Sandip Patel, has a fractured skull after being struck with a machete in an aggravated robbery this week.

On Tuesday, a Hamilton East dairy owner was severely injured by a machete-wielding robber. The Te Kowhai Food Centre, subject to at least 10 robberies, has abandoned tobacco and its $700 weekly income.

More police boots on the ground are a promised a solution, but many are convinced nothing will change as Government ratchets up the cost of tobacco.

READ MORE: Waikato dairy owner to stop selling cigarettes to prevent robberies

Associate Minister of Health Jenny Salesa says the ministry will commission an independent evaluation on the impact of the tobacco tax increases (file photo).

University of Victoria Wellington senior criminology lecturer Trevor Bradley said the problem will certainly get worse.

"Unless we get to the point where the dairies in significant numbers say, 'no more, we're not selling this anymore'."

A black market for cigarettes has only been bolstered by the rising price, he said.

CHRISTEL YARDLEY/STUFF Te Kowhai Food Centre owner, Tao Liu, made a bold decision to stop selling cigarettes after repeated robberies at his store.

Tobacco taxes were bumped another 10 per cent this year, a rise scheduled to increase to 2020.

"It's not 100 per cent responsible, there's wider contextual factors at play here. At the price - $30 for a packet of cigarettes - you've got very significant demand ... such that stolen tobacco wouldn't be waiting around for very long at all."

Tobacco tax - which generates $1.9 billion in revenue - does contribute to a reduction in the smoking population, with the number of smokers falling from 16.3 per cent in 2012 to 13.8 per cent in 2017.



A commonly leveraged criticism, Bradley said, is the tax makes tobacco inaccessible to the people who can least afford them.

JARRED WILLIAMSON/STUFF Police Minister Stuart Nash at a demonstration of a fog cannon used to deter potential robberies, in February (file photo).

The long-term solution to rising robberies is the same offered by the tax: reduce the demand for cigarettes.

The short-term solution? "Target hardening" dairies in ways similar to a bank or jewellery store, which has substantially reduced robberies for cash and gold.

As part of a Government-subsidised push, about 20 dairies have so far had fog cannons installed, with another 17 signed up.

MARK TAYLOR/STUFF Police are looking to identify three people who stormed a Hamilton petrol station and stole five packets of cigarettes, on Thursday. The trio ignored a fog cannon released by the attendant.

But fog cannons don't always work.

On March 8, armed thieves were not curbed by a fog cannon released as they forced entry into a Hillcrest Caltex service station. The staff member fled into a staff room, and the men left with cigarettes and the till.

"You set up a fog cannon, CCTV cameras... You can put in all the target hardening measures you like into these dairies but people are still taking these great risks," Bradley said.

Dave Hooker, director of New Zealand Association of Convenience Stores (NZACS), agreed the value of cigarettes is driving the increase in robberies.

"I can't see it getting any better, with the increased taxation and increased value … there's nothing to say the black market activity won't increase also. That was the experience in Australia."

The NZACS represents service stations but has no individual dairies as members. Cigarettes remained an important profit for convenience stores, and the association does not advocate taking them off the shelves.

"We're trying to encourage the Government to settle the legislation around vaping, which has been in the market for quite a few years and is a much less harmful alternative to smoking.

"It will eventually decrease the demand for tobacco, and may see smaller displays, smaller stock holdings, and may lead to a point where people are able to run a convenience store and not sell tobacco."

In February, Police Minister Stuart Nash hit the streets of Manurewa to encourage dairy owners to have fog cannons at a government-subsidised cost of $250.

In a statement in response an interview request, Nash spoke of the promised 1800 new police officers in the next three years, with seven who graduated last week headed to the Waikato.

"While we are devoting more funds to police on the frontline, we also know there is a bigger picture.

"That's why we are giving greater attention to mental health and addiction services, and stepping up efforts to tackle homelessness."

Nash's communication advisor said the minister would not comment on dairies abandoning cigarettes, and cigarette tax hikes were outside the scope of his portfolios.

Nash also holds both the Small Business and Revenue portfolios.

The Associate Health Minister responsible for tobacco, Jenny Salesa​, said in an emailed statement the Ministry of Health will commission an independent evaluation on the impact of the tobacco tax increases.

"This work will include any unintended consequences of tobacco price increases, such as an increase in crime, including illicit trade, as well as the financial impact of smokers and their families."

The evaluation is due before the end of the year.