Reid is likely to lose three of his members - Sens. Begich, Pryor and Baucus. Reid short of votes on gun control

The White House and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are shy of the 60 votes they need to move the bipartisan compromise bill on background checks for gun sales.

Vice President Joe Biden has been personally calling senators to urge them to support the measure, Democratic aides say.


Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) began a whip count on Monday, Democratic aides said, and Biden has been pressuring his fellow Democrats to fall in line. Biden’s office did not return an email seeking comment.

( Also on POLITICO: Newtown: Victims turned lobbyists)

Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) are co-sponsoring the proposal that would expand background checks for commercial gun purchases — including those at gun shows and online — opening a pathway for the biggest change in U.S. gun laws in nearly two decades.

A cloture vote on the Manchin-Toomey could come by Thursday, Democrats said.

Toomey on Monday afternoon acknowledged they don’t yet have the votes.

“I’m cautiously optimistic. We’re not there at the moment but were working on it,” Toomey said.

( Also on POLITICO: Who split with their party on guns?)

Manchin also said supporters were short of the votes needed to overcome a GOP filibuster, but he remained hopeful that it would pass.

“We’re still working it, it’s very close,” Manchin told reporters. “I agree [with Toomey], it’s very close.”

Manchin added: “I’m talking to everybody.”

Manchin will appear with former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) on Tuesday to press for its passage. Giffords was seriously wounded in a January 2011 shooting that left six others dead. Giffords and her husband, former astronaut Mark Kelly, have become high-profile backers of new gun regulations.

Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) are attempting to hash out a floor procedure laying out votes on the Manchin-Toomey proposal.

If Democrats cannot overcome a GOP filibuster on the background checks bill, any chances for major gun control legislation being enacted in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., shooting would diminish dramatically.

With Republicans filibustering the Manchin-Toomey proposal, a cloture vote on the bill is likely to take place on Thursday at the earliest.

Reid is likely to lose three of his 55 Senate Democrats — Mark Begich (D-Alaska), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.). All three Democrats said on Monday that they were still reviewing the proposal and would not commit to backing it.

Several other Democratic swing votes include Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Mary Landrieu (La.), and Joe Donnelly (Ind.).

When asked about her position on Manchin-Toomey, Landrieu said she was “still taking it under consideration.”

Reid did get some good news on Monday as 89-year-old Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.), a longtime gun-control proponent who has been out for several weeks with serious health problems, is expected to return to Capitol Hill on Wednesday, Democrats said.

Democratic Sens. Kay Hagan (N.C.) and Jon Tester (Mont.), who had been swing votes, also came out in favor of the proposal on Monday, giving it another boost.

“He’s not only supporting the bill, he’s asking other colleagues that come from hard-core red states to read the bill, which is what he did frontwards and backwards, and found out that if you’re a law-abiding gun owner, and you want your Second Amendment rights protected, this bill does that and does that with expansion, if you will,” Manchin said of Tester.

Late Monday night, the New York Times reported that Manchin and Toomey are considering a possible revision to their bill that would exempt residents in rural areas living hundreds of miles from licensed gun deals from some of the requirements of the bill.

The revision, which would be added only as amendment if the Manchin-Toomey proposal is adopted, is designed to appeal to Begich and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), said aides familiar with the issue. Manchin huddled with both Alaskan senators on the floor after a vote Monday night.

However, only four Republicans are considered “Yes” votes at this time. They include Toomey and Sens. Mark Kirk (Ill.), Susan Collins (Maine) and John McCain (Ariz.).

Other Republicans are on the fence and undecided, such as Sens. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.) and Dean Heller (Nev.). Democrats believe they will pick up some of these Republicans.

Heller said that he was still unsure of how he would come down on the Manchin-Toomey bill.

Of the 16 Republicans who crossed the aisle last week and voted with Democrats to begin a debate on gun control, 10 of them have now formally said they will vote against Manchin-Toomey: Sens. Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Jeff Flake (Ariz.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Saxby Chambliss (Ga.), Tom Coburn (Okla.), Bob Corker (Tenn.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), John Hoeven (N.D.), Johnny Isakson (Ga.), and Roger Wicker (Miss.).

”I am voting no,” Chambliss said Monday night. “It’s not the right thing to do.”

This leaves Reid with supporters in the mid-50s range for the Manchin-Toomey cloture vote, not nearly enough to overcome the Republican filibuster.

If Reid and McConnell work out a floor process, however, it could make it easier to pass Manchin-Toomey, especially if those other votes occur before the background checks measure comes up.

Reid and McConnell are negotiating over whether to allow each side three to five amendments on guns, aides said. Reid would push for votes on the Manchin-Toomey proposal; a ban on assault weapons; a prohibition on high-capacity ammunition magazines; a plan by Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) to expand mental health funding; and possibly a similar measure by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).

McConnell wants a vote on an alternative gun bill by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) designed to peel off GOP support for the Manchin-Toomey bill; a proposal by Begich and Graham to prevent the mentally ill from getting gun; a provision to created a federal “concealed carry” permit; and possibly others.

A failure to pass inability to move the bill, which is far more modest than what President Barack Obama initially aimed for, would be a blow to both the White House and gun-control advocates, who have been hungering for legislation to tighten gun laws after a spate of high-profile killings across the country, including the death of 20 children during a December shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.

But it could present a major opportunity for Obama and the Democrats politically. They can use the issue to run against GOP obstructionism in 2014. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and other gun-control groups have dumped tens of millions of dollars in to the fight, and Democrats to appeal to them to give heavily to their incumbents — and Democratic super PACs — next year.

Republicans, for their part, will use any vote for more gun-control laws to target red state Democrats up this cycle. With control of the Senate at stake, and a map that is favorable for the GOP, the National Rifle Association and other gun-rights groups will play heavily in battleground states.

And even if Reid can break the fever of some Republican and red-state Democrats, who oppose tightening gun laws, the bill faces stiffer headwinds in the Republican House. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has all but guaranteed that if any gun legislation moves through the House, it will need to cone out of the House Judiciary Committee, which is chaired by Rep. Bob Goodlatte of Virginia.

Besides a few individual members, the House Republican Conference doesn’t seem eager to move on new gun laws. There has been some desire for new gun trafficking laws, but few Republicans — even from Toomey’s Pennsylvania — are eager to vote on a gun bill.