Major League Soccer announced this week that they will be meeting with representatives from Las Vegas, Minneapolis, and Sacramento on Thursday, November 20. Representatives from each city will make presentations in an attempt to convince MLS that they should be given an expansion franchise as the league looks to expand to 24 teams by 2020. With New York City FC and Orlando City Soccer Club joining in 2015 and Los Angeles and Atlanta set to launch in 2017, that puts the league at 22 teams, leaving two spots open. Miami seemed to be next in line, with MLS Commissioner Don Garber announcing back in February that David Beckham would be awarded a Miami franchise if they can get a stadium built. That would leave three cities fighting for one spot, assuming Beckham can find somewhere to build a stadium in Miami, but since I’m not at all confident that Beckham will be able to find a location for a soccer stadium in Miami, I’ll stick with four cities and two spots available.

Here’s a quick look at where each city stands in its attempt to win an MLS expansion franchise, in order of which ones I think are most likely to end up in MLS.

MLS Expansion Frenzy – Who’s Next?

#1 – Sacramento

Strengths: Established fan base? Check. Wealthy owners? Check. Existing soccer stadium? Check, AND the a deal already reached to build a new 20,000 seat soccer stadium in downtown Sacramento when the team joins MLS. Successful team? Check. Top-20 media market? Check. Local support from City Hall? Check.

Weaknesses: The only real weakness in the Sacramento bid is the location. There are already four teams in California, if you include LAFC which is joining in 2017. Some would argue that MLS should expand into new areas rather than put a fourth team in California.

The Verdict: It’s practically a done deal. Sacramento Republic FC will be the 23rd MLS franchise, it’s just a matter of when. They’d probably rather it be sooner, MLS may want to wait until they have team #24 in place for balance purposes, but then, since when has MLS ever done what they’re expected to?

#2 – Minneapolis

Strengths: Minneapolis is a bit complicated because there’s actually two groups looking to bring an MLS club to Minneapolis. The owners of the Minnesota Vikings NFL team have expressed interest and included plans to house a soccer team in the development of their new stadium, which is now under construction. These plans include a field large enough for a soccer pitch as well as stadium reduction plans similar to what Atlanta has planned. There’s no question that Vikings owner Zygi Wilf has the deep pockets to make the investment required.

The other group is Minnesota United FC of the NASL. Minnesota United was one of the top clubs in NASL this year. They have an established, and growing fanbase with average attendance just over 8,000 for the fall season this year. United also already has a solid youth setup with their U-23 squad competing in the NPSL and partnerships with local youth academies. The Minnesota United big also has strong financial backing, and is supported by the Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota is also a top-20 media market.

Weaknesses: The idea of another soccer team playing in an NFL stadium should be a weakness, but as Atlanta shows, MLS doesn’t seem to actually care about that. Two groups competing in the same city could complicate things, but it could also end up in a bidding war which MLS would love since it would probably result in a higher franchise fee.

The Verdict: Minneapolis gets an MLS club, and this writer hopes it’s Minnesota United. Garber has said previously that he and MLS think highly of the United ownership group, and while both groups are said to be in talks with MLS, the promise of a soccer-specific stadium in downtown Minneapolis could prove the winning factor for United. If MLS gets impatient waiting for Beckham to find a stadium location in Miami, Minneapolis gets in. Even if Beckham finds a spot for his stadium, I still think Minneapolis is a better option.

#3 – Miami*

Strengths: David Beckham and being in the south. Beckham is a star, so anything he attaches his name to will get attention. The question is whether that attention is enough to keep people interested in an MLS team for the long haul. MLS has been looking to expand to the South for awhile, so along with Atlanta and Orlando, Miami would be another foothold there. Miami is also a top-20 media market, which would be an asset in future TV deals for the league.

Weaknesses: They can’t seem to find anywhere to build a stadium. Every move has been met with resistance, and the momentum Beckham and his group seemed to have early on has faded. Other weaknesses include the Miami Fusion, which folded in 2002, the Fort Lauderdale Strikers of NASL, who averaged only 3500 fans in the 2014 fall season, and the general lack of support for sports franchises in Miami unless they have the Big 3 and are winning championships.

The verdict: Miami is unique because Garber has said that they’re in if they can get a stadium. That said, if they don’t get their act together quickly Sacramento and Minneapolis are banging down the door to get in and they have their act far more together. At this point it’s a race to see if Miami can find a stadium location before MLS gets impatient and lets both Sacramento and Minneapolis in instead.

#4 – Las Vegas

Strengths: There are no major professional sports franchises in Las Vegas, giving MLS the chance to be the main show in town. The group trying to bring a team to Vegas has plans for a beautiful downtown stadium, which is good, but see weaknesses for the full story on that.

Weaknesses: Vegas has no established fan base. It’s not even a top-40 media market. There’s a reason there’s no major professional sports franchises in Las Vegas: leagues don’t want to be linked to gambling, which would be inevitable.

The stadium deal also got significantly more expensive recently, when City Council told developers to remove public funds from a financing plan for the proposed $200 million facility. Las Vegas City Council is expected to take up the proposal for a final vote in December, but it will have to be almost entirely privately funded.

The Verdict: The stadium deal in Vegas is going about as well as in Miami (not well!) and they don’t even have commitment from MLS to grant a franchise once a stadium deal is in place. Major League Soccer may someday go to Vegas, but it won’t be in this round of expansion.

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