All baseball players slump. Michael Conforto is not unique in that regard. But Michael Conforto is very, very good and very, very dominant at times, and in each of the last two years has coupled that with stretches where he looks like he does not belong in the lineup.

This year, Conforto hit .316/.415/.639 over 188 plate appearances in April and May before cratering to .167/.366/.278 so far in June. Last season, Conforto put up a .365/.442/.676 line in April before a .169/.242/.349 line in May.

I crunched the numbers and checked out the heat maps in order to determine what changed between those hot and cold periods. First, it appears that both times, pitchers changed their approaches to Conforto. Second, it appears that Conforto adjusted back, crushing in 2017 what troubled him in 2016. Third, it looks like pitchers are treating Conforto like one of the best hitters in baseball, and it’ll take some patience and some (hopefully) good coaching to help him embrace that role.

I. Michael Conforto Is Very Good

When Michael Conforto is going well, he’s one of the best in the business. In 2016, he had a 14.8% FB/HR rate, a 51.7% hard hit rate, and 10.5% walk rate. In 2017 he had nearly a 30% HR/FB rate, 50% hard hit rate, and 13% walk rate. Both of these iterations of Michael Conforto hit to all fields and did so with authority.

Overall as a major leaguer, Michael Conforto has been very good: he has a career line of .252/.345/.480 with 35 home runs over 786 plate appearances and has posted 5.4 WAR. All of this has come before and immediately after his 24th birthday: meaning he’s younger than Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, Hunter Renfroe, Gary Sanchez, Ben Gamel, Delino DeShields, and Trea Turner.

Conforto’s successful periods are not small sample mirages; he is a top prospect with elite hand-eye coordination, elite power, and elite discipline who rightfully should be regarded as one of the best hitters in the league.

II. Conforto’s Slumps Have Been Pretty Bad

On the flip side of the coin, you have a version of Conforto that is unmistakably bad. Although he maintains his walk rate, his strikeouts spiked during both slumps, from 17.4% to 28.6% in May 2016 and from 24% to 35% in 2017. Even when he does hit the ball, his quality of contact falls off as well. In 2016, his hard hit rate went from 51% to 38%, and in 2017, it has decreased to 35%.

In both slumps, his BABIP decreased from somewhere in the mid .300s down to .242 (June 2017) and .189 (May 2016). But this isn’t luck alone — this is a worse approach at the plate and worse quality contact.

So whats the difference?

III. How Conforto is Being Pitched

This is Conforto’s zone heatmap for April 2016 and April and May 2017: