An anti-Brexit sign is seen during a protest outside Downing Street in London, Britain, February 27, 2019. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls

LONDON (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan kept its best guess for Brexit unchanged on Thursday with its central assumption a 45 percent probability of an exit on the terms of the current divorce deal.

“We have been considering tweaking the set of probabilities for various scenarios we last tweaked on February 13th,” J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said. “All told, we have decided not to make any changes at this stage.”

The bank said it saw a 20 percent probability of a long extension to Article 50, a 15 percent probability of a second referendum and gave a 10 percent probability to a no-deal Brexit and an election.

“We expect the March 12th vote to be close enough to bring gaining a majority for it on a third attempt into view, with that taking place in late March or early April,” Barr said.