USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings: Year ends with Trump still in front

Paul Singer | USA TODAY

Four months of Power Rankings have shown the Republicans presidential field to be remarkably stable.

When we launched this feature Sept. 1 — asking 30 or so political experts who is the strongest candidate in the GOP field each week — the top five were Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz.

As the year comes to a close, in the 18th week of our survey, the top five are Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.

Trump remains at the top of our list, where he has been all but five weeks of the survey. Carson took the top spot in late October but could not hold it even a second week; Carly Fiorina held first place for two weeks at the end of September but quickly faded; Cruz was No. 1 two weeks ago and remains Trump's closest challenger as the year ends.

Perhaps most remarkable is the number of big-name candidates who have never cracked the top of our survey. Bush, Rand Paul and Scott Walker all launched their campaigns with great fanfare and high expectations, but Walker quickly dropped out and Bush and Paul have struggled to generate any momentum. Heading into January, Paul may even be relegated to the "happy hour" stage the next time the Republicans gather for a debate.

No surprise that there was little movement in the field over the Christmas break, but that will change Jan. 2 as the candidates begin their sprint to the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses.

"It's about to get real," said political analyst Nathan Gonzales. "For months we've said, 'It's a long way to February,' but now it is just a few weeks away. No one predicted this is where we would be with about a month to go, and I'm not sure I trust anyone who claims to know definitively where this race is headed."

Year end GOP Power Rankings A USA TODAY motion graphic showing 18 weeks of GOP Power Rankings.

WEEK 18 RANKINGS

1. Donald Trump (Last Week: 1)

2. Ted Cruz (2)

3. Marco Rubio (3)

4. Chris Christie (4)

5. Jeb Bush (6)

6. Ben Carson (5)

7. John Kasich (8)

8. Carly Fiorina (7)

9. Rand Paul (9)

10. Mike Huckabee (10)

11. Rick Santorum (11)

12. George Pataki (12)

13. Jim Gilmore (13)

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3

Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6

Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12

Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15

Week 16 | Week 17

Participants in USA TODAY's GOP Power Rankings:

Kristen Soltis Anderson, Republican pollster and author of The Selfie Vote

Henry Barbour, Republican strategist, Mississippi

Paul Brathwaite, principal, Podesta Group

Dianne Bystrom, director, Center for Women and Politics, Iowa State University

Herman Cain, talk show host and former GOP presidential candidate

Maria Cardona, Democratic strategist and CNN Commentator, The Dewey Square Group

Frank Donatelli, former RNC deputy chairman and Reagan advisor

Sara Fagen, partner, DDC Advocacy

Peter Fenn, Democratic political strategist, Fenn Communications

Denise Feriozzi, deputy executive director, EMILY’s List

Karen Floyd, CEO, The Palladian Group and former South Carolina GOP chair

Aaron Ghitelman, communications manager, HeadCount

Andra Gillespie, polling analyst and political science professor, Emory University

Nathan L. Gonzales, editor, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report

Lilly J. Goren, political science and global studies professor, Carroll University

Doug Gross, Iowa attorney and previous Republican gubernatorial nominee

O. Kay Henderson, news director, Radio Iowa

Ken Khachigian, senior partner, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck

Carl Leubsdorf, Washington columnist, The Dallas Morning News

Deb Lucia, Topeka 912 – the Capital City Tea Party

Matt Mackowiak, Republican consultant and president, Potomac Strategy Group, LLC

Dan Maffei, former Democratic congressman, New York

Phil Musser, chairman, IMGE digital media agency

Margie Omero, Democratic pollster, Purple Insights

Jon Ralston, host, "Ralston Live" on PBS affiliates in Nevada

Craig Robinson, founder and editor, TheIowaRepublican.com

Alan Rosenblatt, Ph.D., Sr. VP of digital strategy, turner4D

Dante Scala, political science professor, University of New Hampshire

Adam Sharp, head of news, government and elections, Twitter

Alex Smith, national chairman, College Republicans

Todd Spangler, Washington correspondent, Detroit Free Press

Kathy Sullivan, DNC committeewoman and former Democratic Party chair, New Hampshire

Special thanks to the Palladian Group for building our survey platform.