The rain's not over yet!

Share this article: Share Tweet Share Share Share Email Share

Cape Town - Above-normal rainfall conditions are expected over most parts of the summer rainfall areas in South Africa over the next three months. Below-normal rainfall is expected over the north-eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal during late spring and mid-summer, according to the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries’ Climate Change and Disaster Management Directorate. Their advisory on the 2018/19 spring and summer seasons shows that overall, higher temperatures are still expected moving towards the mid-summer period. There is a particularly confident forecast for above-normal temperatures over the northern parts of the country. In the last two months, dry conditions have prevailed over most parts of the country with water restrictions still in place in some parts. “Livestock is in reasonable condition in most parts except for communal areas where the conditions are poor. Veld fires have been reported in the Free State, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga. The average levels of major dams in most provinces have increased,” the advisory states.

Looking to the future, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and although most models indicate a slight strengthening towards an El Niño phase, the uncertainty seems to be increasing to its potential strength and timing.

“Therefore, this uncertainty casts some doubt on its potential impact over South Africa during the summer period, as there is no significant response on atmospheric conditions in the area.”

With the current conditions in mind, farmers have been advised to conserve water and other resources.

The risk remains high for conditions conducive for veld fires as the veld is dry in areas with sufficient biomass, and veld fires have been reported in several provinces. Farmers are encouraged to maintain fire breaks and adhere to veld fire warnings.

“Episodes of localised flooding resulting from thunderstorms are likely, and preventive measures should be in place. Heat waves are also likely to occur during summer, and therefore, measures to combat these should be in place.”

Cape Times