Standing Down? Prairie Lib, Green Campaigns Called to Support NDP to Avoid Vote Split

As Green and Liberal support in Western Canada has evaporated in favour of a surging Jagmeet Singh, some ethically-minded Liberal and Green Party candidates, concerned about the possibility of vote splitting on the center-left resulting in the election of Conservatives, are reported to have considered reducing or ending campaign activity, in an effort to increase turnout and support for New Democrats in their ridings and avoid the vote splitting in western ridings that could lead to a potential Tory majority.

In Edmonton-Strathcona, Green Party candidate Michael Kalmanovitch stepped down, indicating that only the NDP could win the seat. The Green Party booted Kalmanovitch out of the party as a result, although it permitted four candidates who had made Islamophobic comments to stand.

While no individual Liberal campaign has confirmed calling off activity, the draw-down in Liberal campaigning is reported to be apparent across the Prairies. In Saskatchewan, polling gains by Singh’s New Democrats have made Conservative leader Andrew Scheer vulnerable to losing his own Regina Qu’appelle seat to New Democratic candidate Ray Aldinger. Six other Saskatchewan ridings – specifically Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Regina-Lewvan, Saskatoon-Grasswood, Saskatoon-University, Saskatoon West, and Prince Albert are also potential New Democratic holds or pickups, with only long time Regina-Wascana MP Ralph Goodale the leading opposition to the Tories in his seat for the Liberals.

Liberal and Green candidates and campaign staffers in Edmonton, Calgary, and Winnipeg seats, as well as northern seats, are also being called on to limit their campaigns in efforts to avoid vote splitting and retain a progressive presence in the West.

If #NDP is Progressive candidate with best chance to win in your Riding, then PLEASE Vote #NDP!

With sufficient people smart enuf to Vote Strategically, you might actually pull off a Progressive win!!

To Vote Lib there would Split Progressive Vote & guarantee CON win so WHY? — Hope Aldridge (@HopeAldridge) October 9, 2019

In Saskatchewan seats where the NDP has taken a strong lead over the Liberals, and particularly in the six seats that only New Democrats can win, Liberal campaign support has reportedly evaporated. Polls in the northern Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, suggest that the NDP candidate is leading by a small margin, and vote splitting could hand the seat to the Conservative candidate. A similar story is being told in Andrew Scheer’s own riding of Regina Qu’apelle, where Scheer still leads in polls by a strong margin, but where the drop in Liberal support has moved the seat out of the safe Conservative column, and the effort has shifted to building support for the New Democratic Party to avoid a Conservative win and potentially deny the Tory leader a Parliamentary seat.

While Liberal prospects are also softening in Regina-Lewvan, Prince Albert, Saskatoon-Grasswood, Saskatoon-University, and Saskatoon West, Liberals reportedly continue to press to elect incumbent MP Ralph Goodale in Regina-Wascana, where Goodale is in a close battle with his Tory opponent.

Whether any Liberal candidates will formally throw strategic support behind their New Democratic colleagues to avoid vote splitting and the election of an Andrew Scheer government remains to be seen over the last weekend of the campaign. The results of that effort will be seen on October 21st when Canadians go to the polls.

– Editor’s Note: Updated on October 16th 2019 to include more recent information