California Assemblywoman Christy Smith and former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia lead in two races for the 25th Congressional District with both expressing confidence they will advance to a runoff in May and a general election in November.

The May 12 election will determine who completes the final months of the term vacated by Katie Hill. The Democrat resigned from Congress in November amid allegations of inappropriate relationships with staffers and leaked nude photos in what was purported to be "revenge porn."

Analysts contend the winner of the runoff could gain momentum that could help in the Nov. 3 general election where Smith, a Democrat, and Republican candidate Garcia appear likely to compete for a two-year term that begins in January.

“Whoever wins in May gets a little bit of a boost because they become the de facto incumbent,” said Tim Allison, adjunct political science professor at CSU Channel Islands in Camarillo.

As of Wednesday, Smith and Garcia both remained ahead of former Congressman Steve Knight and 12 other candidates in two races to represent a district that reaches from Santa Clarita to Simi Valley.

In the general primary that determined who advances to the Nov. 3 election, Smith gained 29.8% of the vote. Garcia, a Republican from Santa Clarita, held 25.5% of the vote. Knight, a Palmdale Republican who served two terms in Congress before losing to Hill in 2018, was third with 20.1%.

In a special election, candidates vied to fill the last months of Hill's term, which expires in January. In that election, Smith led with 34.3% of the vote. Garcia held 27% and Knight had 18.1%.

Votes are still being counted. The Associated Press called the special election race for Smith but as of Wednesday morning held off on declaring a second advancer or projecting winners in the general primary.

But Garcia, who entered the race when Hill was the odds-on favorite, claimed victory over Knight Tuesday night and said he expected to advance in both races.

"Our victory tonight is the result of hard work by a lot of people in our community who are tired of radical career politicians ruining our state and causing Washington to be dysfunctional," said Garcia in a news release issued Wednesday.

Smith, a former school board member voted to the state Assembly in 2018, also expressed confidence.

“At this point, we feel pretty secure in saying we’re advancing in both races,” she said in a phone interview late Wednesday morning.

Neither Knight nor his campaign immediately returned messages.

Smith called the May runoff a bellwether race and predicted the nation will be watching a district that was represented by Republicans for decades before Hill’s victory in 2018.

“I think voters are really at this point very keen on having representation that is willing to be the adult in the room and get past this hyper-partisanship and get the work done,” she said.

Allison predicted the May election could surprise voters and bring relatively low turnout. That could favor Republicans, he said, noting the higher expected turnout in November could help Democrats. He said the series of elections means it is possible the district could be represented by three different people in a little more than a year.

More:Candidates fire at each other in race for Katie Hill's congressional seat

If the May runoff attracts national attention, it will be following a trend. Hill’s victory over Knight brought much media coverage as did her resignation last year.

The scramble to fill her seat also drew eyes on a field that not only include Smith, Garcia and Knight but Democrat Cenk Uygur, founder of "the Young Turks" online news show and network. Convicted former Donald Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos also threw his hat into the ring.

Uygur gained 5.2% of the vote in the general election as of Wednesday afternoon. Papadopoulos held 1.9%.

Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.

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