When Italians wake up on Monday morning it is very likely that they will have no idea who their next prime minister will be, even after every ballot has been counted.

While analysts said yesterday they were prepared for surprises, most anticipated that the results would end in deadlock, and set off a period of intense negotiations in Rome that would aim to cobble together a government by the end of March.

Sergio Mattarella, the Italian president who is supposed to play a neutral role and must give his blessing to the new government, would lead the talks.

Traditionally, a grand coalition – like a forced marriage of rivals – could be brought together relatively easily by joining the country’s two big traditional parties, the centre-left Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi, and Forza Italia on the right led by Silvio Berlusconi.

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But those traditional parties are not expected to have enough support on their own to create parliamentary majority, according to early results. Exit polls and early projects on Monday morning revealed that as many as 50% of Italian voters supported populist parties.

The Five Star Movement, once laughed off as merely a protest party, is expected to emerge as the single biggest party, with up to 33% of the vote. La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, also appeared to have performed better than expected.

Those parties, once seen as fringe movements, will likely have to play a role in whatever coalition is created for the new government in order for it to look reflective of the election results, analysts say. The calculation is complicated in large part because the Five Star Movement has always traditionally said it would not take part in a coalition government.

“The biggest question in a deadlock is about the M5S. It’s like a sort of graduation. Do they want to be an isolationist party, or do they want to play a real game and strike a deal?” said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst.

Piccoli believes that while the M5S and La Lega have the most in common since they are both populist and eurosceptic, many M5S voters are politically on the left, and would abhor any move to join forces with Salvini’s party.

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If there is a deadlock after the election, the next government will have to represent each major national party in order to maintain Italy’s social fabric, said analyst Francesco Galietti.

“It is one of the few set-ups that can pacify the country. If we end up seeing low turnout, people voting anti-establishment, it means something has been disrupted,” Galietti said.



In that case, the government could be run by technocrats while party leaders stay in parliament, Galietti says.

Another option would see the centre-right bloc headed by Berlusconi, which as a coalition is expected to win the most votes, take the lead in negotiations and seek to win over politicians who could join them to get over the finish line.

“I am cautious but if the polls are more or less confirmed, then it looks like the centre-right could pull people from other parties and convince them to come on board,” said Giovanni Orsina, a politics professor at Luiss University in Rome.

One thing seems evident, Orsina added: “It is not going to be easy.”