An anti-TPP march moves from Midland Park to Parliament in Wellington.

OPINION: Despite the substantial skills of New Zealand trade negotiating officials, it is uncertain that the Government will be able to ratify a final Trans-Pacific Partnership outcome which is sub-optimal for the country.

The bigger picture behind TPP, where the United States trade/economic objectives are understandably predominant, should not be discounted.

American trade policy, post the 2008 global financial crisis, rests on a tripod of proposed partnerships – in Asia Pacific (TPP), with Europe (TTIP) and a global services agreement (TISA), where negotiations in Geneva have proceeded, but outside the World Trade Organisation.

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The common element is that each initiative excludes any of the large newly emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, kinown as BRICS) whose importance to New Zealand as a world trader, can hardly be understated.

That segregation is mirrored in the management of established international financial/economic institutions, notably the International Monetary Fund, where reforms to reflect the increasing international weight of the BRICS have stalled, especially in Washington.

The 2008 establishment of G20 (the world's top twenty economies) was specifically intended to signal that global economic management had to reflect the transformation in the global pecking order created by BRICS accomplishment.

In terms of New Zealand's interest it is crucial the BRICS countries accept to play a full part in an international rules based trade and economic system; and therefore that powerful western governments agree to create the management space by moderating their proprietorship to allow constructive BRICS involvement.

Impatience amongst the BRICS at the laggard pace is becoming more pronounced. That is exemplified by China's recent creation of an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which New Zealand has adroitly signed up to.

Such initiatives fuel US misgivings however that the BRICS are indeed set upon subverting the existing international system.

This chicken and egg dilemma creates a real non-virtuous circle. If New Zealand does elect to sign up to a sub-optimal TPP, the question then arises as to whether this winn in the future dictate New Zealand objectives for future FTA negotiations or renewals with non TPP countries – say India or, even, China?

Will New Zealand be bound or expected to pursue provisions equivalent to, or compatible with,TPP despite its sub-optimal content?

It is of course possible that more Asia Pacific governments may elect to seek TPP membership but no one can bank upon it.

That will depend anyway upon close examination of fine print in TPP negotiating texts, texts that are so far shrouded in secrecy.

It will depend too upon what alternatives are on offer.

New Zealand has deftly strung its own regional trade policy bow twice, with involvements in both TPP negotiations and in those for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that involve all East Asian governments as well as India (and Australia) but where the US is absent.

The countries involved here account for 60 per cent of New Zealand merchandise trade (North America accounts for some 10 per cent).

Beginning in 2013 there have been nine negotiating rounds and the target for completion is end of 2015.

This deadline will not be met in terms of any agreed final text. There will essential differences anyway compared to TPP where negotiations centre around a firmly identified American template.

A grand design is glimpsed behind all this (competing) regional activity, where TPP and RCEP may one day be melded into a bumper Asia Pacific wide trade and economic arrangement. But much water has still to pass under that bridge.

Meanwhile a tussle continues for regional and by extension global, economic primacy. One must respect American desire to conclude TPP promptly because of US Presidential politics.

But New Zealand's interest lies in keeping its powder dry.

Media reports credit US President Barack Obama moreover as explaining US policy in terms of ensuring that rules of the global economy are not written by China.

New Zealand is on record politically as resisting any idea of the TPP as a curb on China.

Despite genuine pressures upon it, the New Zealan should hasten slowly over ratifying a sub-optimal TPP.

Terence O'Brien is a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies New Zealand.