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Consumers are key to averting a US recession . One big reason: Weakness in manufacturing , which has been hurt by the trade war and the global economic slowdown.

"If American households waver in their spending, it's game over," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore in New York.

Some economists believe that the US manufacturing sector is either entering a recession, or is already in one. Other parts of the economy need to compensate for that vulnerability.

"The hope is that the consumer side stays strong enough to offset the weakness," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said on CNN's "Markets Now."

So far, consumers have held up their side of the bargain, though a recent University of Michigan survey showed that sentiment declined in early August.

Investor insight: Fresh data on the health of US manufacturing and services sectors hits Thursday, when IHS Markit releases its PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, data.

Releases earlier today reflected ongoing problems in Europe and Germany, feeding fears of a German recession. In Europe, manufacturing output fell for the seventh month in a row. In Germany, the manufacturing PMI hit a two-month high but still indicated that the sector is contracting.

"Germany remains a two-speed economy, with ongoing growth of services just about compensating for the sustained weakness in manufacturing," said Phil Smith, IHS Markit's principal economist.

The bond market is still talking

It happened again. On Wednesday afternoon, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell below the 2-year yield, marking the second yield curve inversion this month. Before August, this hadn't happened since 2007, just before the Great Recession.

Why it's a talker: Inversions of certain parts of the yield curve — when short-term rates jump above long-term rates — have often been predictors of recession. It's not normal for investors to demand higher rates on short-term loans, which are supposed to be less risky.

Investors approached this second inversion with more composure, and US stocks finished higher. But unusual moves in the bond market are worth keeping an eye on.

On the radar: Germany just sold 30-year debt at a negative yield for the first time. That means investors will lose money if they hold the debt until maturity, an arrangement that in normal times shouldn't be very appealing.

Demand didn't meet expectations. Still, roughly $965 million in bids sends a message: Investors want safe assets, and think demand will only increase.

More: About 30% of global bonds that can be traded are now in negative territory, JPMorgan said in a recent report. That's a record high.

Banks in Hong Kong make calls for calm

This dispatch is from my CNN Business colleague Michelle Toh in Hong Kong:

Big banks really want Hong Kong's political crisis to be over.

HSBC HSBC Standard Chartered SCBFF and the Bank of East Asia all placed ads in several local newspapers on Thursday, calling for a peaceful resolution to the months-long standoff between the city's government and pro-democracy protesters.

"Maintaining the rule of law is essential to the international finance center status that is unique to Hong Kong," HSBC wrote.

Big picture: The banks join a growing list of businesses and corporate leaders speaking out on the anti-government protests, set to head into their 12th consecutive weekend. Last week, Hong Kong's property billionaires and the city's richest man, Li Ka-shing, also made calls for calm.

Also: HSBC's CEO was ousted earlier this month after less than two years on the job. The bank certainly has its hands full.

Up next

Earnings continue. Dick's Sporting Goods will report results before US markets open. Gap, HP and Salesforce will follow after the close.

Also coming:

ECB minutes for July.

Central bankers gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting today. Watch for headlines.

Tomorrow: Jerome Powell's must-watch Jackson Hole speech.

This weekend: The G7 summit kicks off in southwestern France.