Karl Rove's op-ed on polls this morning in the WSJ reminds me of something I've been meaning to write for a few days.



I often get emails asking why I'm not posting this poll favorable to Obama or that poll that shows McCain closing. Thanks to Drudge's cherry-picking, these are increasingly coming from Republicans who are looking for a glimmer of hope in what is shaping up to be a tough year.



First off, I'm not very interested in national polls at this point. Yes, they can be broadly instructive to show trends. And, indeed, some have shown McCain moving up in recent days.



But the presidency isn't decided by a national vote.



So it's state polls that are most relevant, and especially in those battleground states that will decide the race.



In these places, I look to and tend to post those surveys from papers and pollsters that have a track record of work in states year after year, in downballot races and the presidential campaign. Examples include, but are not limited to, the Iowa poll, the UNH Survey Center in New Hampshire, Franklin & Marshall in Pennsylvania, the Washington Post and Mason Dixon in Virginia, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in Missouri.



As Rove notes, there are a lot of outlets now polling both nationwide and in key states. I put the most stock in state polls from reliable outfits.



One last note: McCain's campaign is pointing to public polls and their own internal surveys to make the case that this race is fluid and that the trend lines are moving their way. I asked McCain's chief pollster Bill McInturff to share data about what their state polls were showing, knowing that they're in the field every night and often have fresher numbers than the public outfits. He declined, saying that was too specific.

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