They’ve got the power to swing this tight election race and the fate of the country but the majority of Canada’s 18 to 24 demographic, if past trends hold up, will likely stay home on Oct. 19.

That’s the bleak prediction of political scientists who worry the Millennials are becoming democracy’s lost generation. Less than 39 per cent voted in 2011.

article continues below

“Young people are coming of age. They’re not voting and they’re never starting to vote,” said David Moscrop, a UBC political scientist.

It’s something there are a number of efforts to turn the tide on – student groups have get-out-the-vote campaigns, lobby groups are pushing for more youth-friendly policies and Canadian satirist Rick Mercer has pursued the issue on his show, The Mercer Report.

Apathy, isn’t the reason for the dwindling turnout, all agree. Research shows young people are in some ways more engaged than their older cohorts – they just don’t engage with politics in the same way, Moscrop said. Their activism takes other forms.

Political parties too share some of the blame for leaving young people behind, Moscrop said. Rather than seeing them as untapped votes, parties tend to target their scarce resources and platforms to demographics that are more likely to show up when it counts.

“I do know that the parties, when they’re knocking on doors, aren’t talking to young people.

When a young person answers the door, they’ll say ‘Are your parents home?’ It’s a pretty common problem,” Moscrop said.

The trend should be worrying for Canadians of all generations Moscrop said, when you ponder the “false majority” governments that will be produced with future low voter turnout.

“How legitimate is a government that has 100 per cent of the power in a first-past-the-post election and only two of 10 Canadians who support them?” he said

And of course, there are more practical reasons for youth to become engaged, according to Paul Kershaw, UBC professor of public health and founder of Generation Squeeze, an organization that lobbies to put young people’s needs on the government’s radar the way the Canadian Association for Retired Persons has done for seniors. Full-time wages have fallen relative to cost of living. Student debt is at record levels and the price of housing is, well, you know.

“We’re squeezed environmentally and we have little supports for the new realities of raising our families,” Kershaw said.

But government still can spread its largesse to accommodate changing demographics when it is properly lobbied, he said. As an example, the government spends $32 billion more per year on medical care for people over 65 than it used to but it hasn’t changed any policies to reflect the fact that families can no longer get by on a single income.

“When you’re adding $30 billion in more spending but you’re not raising additional taxes, then you have to find your dollars elsewhere to square that budget circle,” he said. “That demographic shift is no less significant than the aging of the population. ... Right now Canada ranks among the worst in industrialized countries when it comes to investing in the generation raising young kids. That’s why child care costs more than another mortgage.”

Disenfranchisement is a vicious circle, Kershaw said. Though there are some exceptions, most of the parties’ platforms offer little for young voters, giving them less incentive to show up, Kershaw said. And while voting is tremendously important, Generation Squeeze aims to lobby the parties as they’re developing their platforms. “If we wait until voting day, we’ve missed really exercising our power,” he said.

One person not buying the notion youth voter engagement has peaked is Mercer.

The CBC's Rick Mercer. Mercer says today's non-voting youth will clue in and find their way to the ballot booth sooner or later. photo supplied Jon Sturge, CBC

“They’ll say that until one day, (young people) will show up and vote and then everything will change and they’ll never say that ever again. I think that’s what’s more likely to happen. I don’t know if that will be this election but that’s going to happen,” he said.

When the new season of The Mercer Report premiers on Oct. 6, it will feature a segment shot at a voter turnout drive at St. Francis Xavier University. “I came away feeling very positive. They were engaged and I think a lot of those students are going to vote,” he said.

And Mercer said it would be a mistake to see young people as a politically homogenous group. “It’s my experience that they’re as diverse in their interests and concerns as any other cross-section that you’ll find in Canada,” he said. “It’s not like, ‘We want beer in the fountains.’”

Inspired by the knowledge that young people are more likely to vote if their friends do, Mercer has launched votenation.ca, a website that taps into the social-media wired habits of young people, and helps them share their pro-democracy stance with friends online.

The Capilano Students’ Union has launched a similar pledge campaign for its members at csu.getoutthevote.ca, which emails reminders to students to stay involved throughout the campaign.

Beyond “clicktivism,” the CSU is hosting two all-candidates’ forums: Oct. 1 for the North Vancouver riding and Oct. 7 for Burnaby North-Seymour.

“We’ve had ministries tell us students don’t necessarily matter because they’re not taxpayers. If we can show that students have a voice, and we have power when it comes to elections, we think we’ll be more likely to be listened to,” said Taylor Wilson, CSU vice-president.