A showdown behind closed doors on Capitol Hill could bring President Barack Obama closer to fulfilling one of his long-held campaign promises: closing the U.S. military prison for suspected terrorists at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.

At issue are dueling approaches in the House and Senate versions of this year’s defense policy bill.


One, pushed by Obama’s 2008 Republican presidential rival, Sen. John McCain, would give the Obama administration a path that would force congressional review of a closure plan.

The other, backed by House Republicans stung by the president’s decision last year to swap five Guantánamo detainees for captive Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl without providing Congress the required 30-day notice, would strengthen restrictions on transferring detainees, making the closure of the facility more difficult in the waning months of Obama’s presidency.

The competing prescriptions are now being reconciled in backroom talks between congressional leaders and the chairmen of the Armed Services committees. The outcome of their wrangling is expected this week, with votes on a final National Defense Authorization Act expected ahead of the long summer congressional recess that begins in early August.

Nearly 800 prisoners have been held at Gitmo since early 2002, according to the Congressional Research Service, but only 116 remain there today. In recent months, the administration has been trying to speed up the transfers to third countries of prisoners who’ve been cleared for release.

A former prisoner of war and a long-time advocate of closing the prison, McCain is banking that his new stature as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee will finally give him momentum to achieve his and Obama’s goal. And the stakes for Obama couldn’t be higher for a pledge he made during his first week in office.

The Senate proposal would strengthen a number of restrictions on transferring prisoners to other countries or to the United States, but it also for the first time would offer the administration an escape ramp. If it submits a plan for closing the prison — and that plan were approved by Congress — then it could begin transferring prisoners to the U.S. for trial or incarceration.

The provision would represent a small shift on Capitol Hill and could pave the way for more sweeping changes in next year’s annual National Defense Authorization Act.

The White House has threatened to veto both the House and Senate versions of the defense bill over a number of objections, including the Guantánamo provisions, which it says are an infringement on executive power. And advocates pressing to shutter the prison say McCain’s plan is flawed when it comes to providing a path for closure — because the odds of Congress approving a proposal put forward by Obama are slim to none.

Still, the Arizona senator’s proposal is “our best legislative shot,” said one U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss pending legislation.

And House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry, who spearheaded the more restrictive language in the House, says he’s willing to at least consider it.

“The president, if he can come up with an approach that can get support, then I don’t think anybody’s just pining to keep the detention facility open forever,” the Texas Republican told reporters last month. “But you’ve gotta get people’s support that you’ve got a handle on the issues related here, and he has not been able to do that.”

Human-rights groups, though, aren’t satisfied and wish the president would be more aggressive in taking on Congress on the issue.

“Politically it looks good — it looks like it gives everyone a chance to participate in closing Guantánamo together,” said Daphne Eviatar of Human Rights First. “But, realistically, the politics are such that a lot of the Republicans, especially in the House, have been clear they’re not going to approve anything that the president puts forward in terms of closing Guantánamo.”

Instead, Eviatar suggested that Obama needs to follow through on his veto threat to leave open any chance of closing the prison. Then, she said, he might be able to negotiate better terms — like allowing him to move forward with a plan to shutter the prison unless Congress specifically votes to stop him.

That idea was put forward last year by then-Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.). But the proposal to allow Congress to have the option of rejecting a plan put forward by the administration was ultimately stripped out in House-Senate conference negotiations.

In this year’s conference negotiations, conferees have ironed out most of the differences between the House and Senate defense bills but are still haggling over several big issues, including the Guantánamo provisions, according to McCain.

“Congress is simply asking the executive branch to explain where it will hold those set for trial, how it will continue to detain dangerous terrorists pursuant to the laws of war, and how it will mitigate the risks of moving this population,” McCain said in a statement responding to the White House threat to veto his bill. “If the administration can provide answers to these basic questions to the satisfaction of the American people, then congressional restrictions on the movement of these detainees will be lifted.”

McCain has long expressed frustration with the White House for not providing him a plan to close Guantánamo early in Obama’s first term. A POW in Vietnam, McCain has been in favor of closing the prison — unlike many Republicans — but he says the administration needs a solution for dealing with the detainees too dangerous to be released who cannot be tried in court.

So far, the administration has not done so, though McCain said Defense Secretary Ash Carter pledged over breakfast last month that the administration would “soon” submit to Congress a plan for closure.

But McCain said last week he still hadn’t received anything from the White House, which declined in response to questions from POLITICO to specify when it would submit a plan.

Still, McCain makes the same arguments against Guantánamo as the White House and other opponents.

“Right now, my friends in the House need to understand that it costs, I think, $2.3 million per detainee at Guantánamo,” McCain said. “It would cost approximately $70,000 per year if they were in a maximum security prison in the United States.”

Earlier this year, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said it would be “very difficult” for the president to achieve his goal of closing Guantánamo “because of obstacles that Congress has thrown up.”

And Carter said last month in an interview that he was “not confident” that Obama would be able to close the prison but that the administration would keep working on it.

“I’m not confident, but I am hopeful,” he told CBS News. “I think we’ll have a good proposal, and I think we’re hoping it wins the support that it needs in Congress, so that we can move forward.”