For many years, Saudi Arabia punched below its weight in the region—struggling, for all its immense wealth, to project power and shape political outcomes beyond its Gulf neighborhood. Iran, by contrast, advanced a low-cost, high-yield strategy to build its influence by exploiting the cracks within the Middle East’s American-led order. But now, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman orchestrates a sweeping consolidation of power at home through mass arrests, Saudi Arabia is changing its posture abroad as well, in a move that could have repercussions throughout the region and beyond. And the U.S. appears to be giving the kingdom carte blanche.

President Donald Trump took time out of his travels in Asia to tweet his support for Saudi Arabia’s stunning arrests of dozens of royal family members, military officials, ministers, and leading businessmen this past weekend. Trump’s endorsement of the Saudi moves, just after his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s third visit to the kingdom this year, follows troublesome patterns in both countries. For Trump, it is another example of him offering reassurances to allies without demanding greater responsibility, while ignoring the strategic costs of autocratic repression—or even outright celebrating it.

On the Saudi side, it appears the government may, once again, be leaping before it looks. The risk is that Riyadh’s aggressive moves at home could destabilize the country, while its more muscular foreign policy could draw the country and its partners into open-ended conflicts across the Middle East.

It remains difficult for outside observers to offer a credible analysis of what’s happening inside Saudi Arabia right now. Much remains unclear, particularly what grand designs or threats, however imminent or notional, drove King Salman, his son, and their allies to act so boldly against their fellow royals. What is clear is that, even as Riyadh undergoes a political earthquake at home, its leaders are not shying away from raising tensions in the region.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s hands-off approach has allowed others to set the regional agenda. With Riyadh, Trump squanders U.S. leverage by offering unconditional support to Saudi Arabia. To Tehran, he offers tough talk without any actual plans to compete more effectively in the region. The result? An emboldened Saudi Arabia acts as it sees fit to fill the void. It’s a formula that leaves the Middle East more vulnerable to military conflict, and American troops enmeshed in the middle of complicated fights. From Yemen to Qatar to Lebanon, it’s not clear if this approach serves U.S. interests. In the worst case, it could even drag America into a regional war with Iran.