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As Quebec’s election campaign draws to a close, a new poll indicates the province may be headed for its first ever Coalition Avenir Québec government on Monday, likely a minority.

François Legault’s CAQ were favoured by 32 per cent of voters, while Philippe Couillard’s ruling Liberals were at 30 per cent, according to the survey, published Saturday.

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The two sovereignist parties, meanwhile, were in a dead heat: Jean-François Lisée’s Parti Québécois was at 19 per cent, with Manon Massé’s Québec solidaire not far behind at 17 per cent.

Despite the narrow gap between the CAQ and the Liberals in overall voter support, the CAQ is heavily favoured to win the Oct. 1 election because it dominates among francophone voters, who are in the majority in most of Quebec’s 125 ridings.

Among francophones, here was the breakdown in the latest poll: