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2011 Schedule & Results Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 12 Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L 3-Sep Western Michigan 34-10 W 35.5 - 25.0 W 10-Sep Notre Dame 35-31 W 35.3 - 30.5 W 17-Sep Eastern Michigan 31-3 W 35.5 - 25.9 W 24-Sep San Diego State 28-7 W 31.2 - 22.9 W 1-Oct Minnesota 58-0 W 35.6 - 13.7 W 8-Oct at Northwestern 42-24 W 30.9 - 30.3 W 15-Oct at Michigan State 14-28 L 24.9 - 26.4 L 29-Oct Purdue 36-14 W 33.5 - 27.8 W 5-Nov at Iowa 16-24 L 24.4 - 29.1 L 12-Nov at Illinois 31-14 W 33.9 - 23.0 W 19-Nov Nebraska 45-17 W 31.2 - 25.8 W 26-Nov Ohio State 40-34 W 38.4 - 31.8 W 3-Jan vs Virginia Tech 23-20 W 25.0 - 25.4 L Category Offense Rk Defense Rk Points Per Game 33.3 26 17.4 6 Adj. Points Per Game 31.9 11 26.0 34

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors 2012 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. Rk 1-Sep vs. Alabama 1 8-Sep Air Force 103 15-Sep Massachusetts 116 22-Sep at Notre Dame 11 6-Oct at Purdue 70 13-Oct Illinois 51 20-Oct Michigan State 19 27-Oct at Nebraska 24 3-Nov at Minnesota 96 10-Nov Northwestern 68 17-Nov Iowa 43 24-Nov at Ohio State 20 Five-Year F/+ Rk 39 Two-Year Recruiting Rk 15 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +7 / -3.3 TO Luck/Game +4.0 Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (7, 7) Yds/Pt Margin** -6.4

Offense

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 42 8 8 9 RUSHING 13 4 3 4 PASSING 93 15 33 13 Standard Downs 9 13 10 Passing Downs 8 10 9 Redzone 26 30 21 Q1 Rk 5 1st Down Rk 12 Q2 Rk 7 2nd Down Rk 5 Q3 Rk 22 3rd Down Rk 10 Q4 Rk 5 Adj. Line Yards Rk 19 Adj. Sack Rate Rk 52

Quarterback Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension. Player Ht, Wt 2012

Year Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp

Rate TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Denard Robinson 6'0, 195 Sr. **** (5.8) 142 258 2,173 55.0% 20 15 13 4.8% 7.6 Devin Gardner 6'4, 205 Jr. **** (5.9) 11 23 176 47.8% 1 1 5 17.9% 4.6 Russell Bellamy 6'3, 189 RSFr. *** (5.5)















Running Back Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012

Year Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Carry TD Adj.

POE Denard Robinson QB 6'0, 195 Sr. **** (5.8) 208 1,288 6.2 2.8 16 +28.6 Fitzgerald Toussaint RB 5'10, 195 Jr. **** (5.8) 187 1,041 5.6 2.6 9 +13.3 Vincent Smith RB 5'6, 172 Sr. *** (5.7) 50 298 6.0 2.6 2 +4.2 Michael Shaw RB 31 199 6.4 3.4 3 +7.1 Devin Gardner QB 6'4, 205 Jr. **** (5.9) 20 101 5.1 1.1 1 +1.2 Thomas Rawls RB 5'10, 219 So. *** (5.6) 13 79 6.1 3.0 0 -0.6 Stephen Hopkins FB 6'0, 228 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 44 4.0 0.7 0 -0.4 Justice Hayes RB 5'10, 176 RSFr. **** (5.9)











Dennis Norfleet RB 5'7, 170 Fr. **** (5.8)













Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012

Year Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate %SD Adj. Yds/

Target Junior Hemingway WR 58 34 699 58.6% 21.7% 46.6% 10.2 Roy Roundtree WR 6'0, 177 Sr. **** (5.8) 49 19 355 38.8% 18.4% 49.0% 2.1 Jeremy Gallon WR 5'8, 185 Jr. **** (5.9) 42 31 453 73.8% 15.7% 66.7% 11.9 Kevin Koger TE 35 23 244 65.7% 13.1% 62.9% 6.3 Vincent Smith RB 5'6, 172 Sr. *** (5.7) 17 11 149 64.7% 6.4% 35.3% 9.0 Martavious Odoms WR 15 7 131 46.7% 5.6% 20.0% 2.7 Drew Dileo WR 5'10, 172 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 9 121 64.3% 5.2% 50.0% 7.5 Kelvin Grady WR 14 5 75 35.7% 5.2% 50.0% 1.0 Fitzgerald Toussaint RB 5'10, 195 Jr. **** (5.8) 7 6 28 85.7% 2.6% 85.7% 2.6 Stephen Hopkins FB 5'10, 195 Jr. *** (5.5) 4 1 28 25.0% 1.5% 75.0% 7.0 Jeremy Jackson WR 6'3, 198 Jr. *** (5.5) 3 3 36 100.0% 1.1% 66.7% 12.0 Brandon Moore TE 6'5, 255 Sr. **** (5.8) 3 1 9 33.3% 1.1% 66.7% 3.0 Jerald Robinson WR 6'1, 206 So. *** (5.7) Amara Darboh WR 6'2, 190 Fr. **** (5.8)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012

Year Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes David Molk C 41 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big Ten Taylor Lewan LT 6'8, 302 Jr. **** (5.8) 22 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big Ten Patrick Omameh RG 6'4, 300 Sr. ** (5.1) 29 career starts Mark Huyge RT 29 career starts Michael Schofield LG 6'7, 299 Jr. **** (5.8) 10 career starts Ricky Barnum C 6'3, 292 Sr. **** (5.8) 3 career starts Rocko Khoury C 1 career start Elliott Mealer LG 6'5, 310 Sr. **** (5.8) Chris Bryant RG 6'4, 341 RSFr. **** (5.8) Joey Burzynsky LG 6'1, 284 So. NR Jack Miller C 6'4, 263 RSFr. *** (5.5) Kyle Kalis OL 6'5, 302 Fr. ***** (6.1) Erik Magnuson OL 6'6, 275 Fr. **** (5.9) Blake Bars OL 6'5, 275 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 17 33 47 28 RUSHING 39 37 47 30 PASSING 16 35 61 31 Standard Downs 25 35 18 Passing Downs 55 71 43 Redzone 16 20 14 Q1 Rk 84 1st Down Rk 52 Q2 Rk 29 2nd Down Rk 24 Q3 Rk 15 3rd Down Rk 23 Q4 Rk 20 Adj. Line Yards Rk 51 Adj. Sack Rate Rk 57

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012

Year Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Mike Martin DT 13 42.0 6.3% 6 3.5 Ryan Van Bergen DE 13 35.0 5.2% 12.5 5.5 4 1 3 Craig Roh DE 6'5, 269 Sr. **** (5.9) 13 26.5 3.9% 8 4 1 Will Heininger DT 12 16.5 2.5% 4 1 1 Jibreel Black DT 6'2, 260 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 15.0 2.2% 1.5 1.5 1 Will Campbell DT 6'5, 322 Sr. ***** (6.1) 13 9.5 1.4% 2.5 2 1 1 Brennen Beyer DE 6'3, 225 So. **** (5.8) 11 8.0 1.2% Frank Clark DE 6'2, 228 So. *** (5.6) 12 6.5 1.0% 0.5 1 Nathan Brink DE 6'5, 263 Jr. NR 11 1.0 0.1% 1 Quinton Washington DT 6'4, 302 Jr. **** (5.8) 9 1.0 0.1% Keith Heitzman DE 6'3, 251 RSFr. *** (5.5) Ondre Pipkins DT 6'3, 325 Fr. ***** (6.1) Tom Strobel DE 6'6, 245 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012

Year Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Kenny Demens MLB 6'1, 248 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 71.5 10.7% 5 3 2 1 Desmond Morgan WLB 6'1, 220 So. *** (5.5) 12 44.5 6.7% 4 1 1 1 Brandin Hawthorne WLB 6'0, 214 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 34.0 5.1% 3 1 1 1 Jake Ryan SLB 6'3, 230 So. *** (5.6) 13 28.5 4.2% 11 3 1 2 J.B. Fitzgerald MLB 13 9.0 1.3% 1 1 Brandon Herron WLB 5 4.5 0.7% 1 1 Cameron Gordon SLB 6'3, 222 Jr. **** (5.8) 7 3.5 0.5% Mike Jones SLB 6'2, 224 Jr. *** (5.7) 9 3.5 0.5% Antonio Poole WLB 6'2, 212 RSFr. *** (5.7) Joe Bolden MLB 6'3, 230 Fr. **** (5.8) Royce Jenkins-Stone LB 6'2, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012

Year Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Jordan Kovacs SS 6'0, 197 Sr. NR 12 63.0 9.4% 8 4 1 1 2 1 Thomas Gordon FS 5'11, 208 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 54.0 8.0% 1.5 1 2 2 4 J.T. Floyd CB 6'0, 185 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 39.5 5.9% 2 8 1 Blake Countess CB 5'10, 176 So. **** (5.8) 12 37.0 5.5% 1.5 6 1 Troy Woolfolk FS 13 23.5 3.5% 2 Courtney Avery CB 5'11, 173 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 21.5 3.2% 2 0.5 2 4 1 2 Carvin Johnson FS 8 11.5 1.7% 1 1 Josh Furman FS 6'2, 208 So. *** (5.7) 12 7.5 1.1% Marvin Robinson SS 6'2, 200 Jr. **** (5.8) 5 7.5 1.1% Matthew Cavanaugh S 13 6.5 1.0% Floyd Simmons S 6'0, 194 Sr. NR 13 6.0 0.9% 2 Delonte Hollowell CB 5'9, 164 So. *** (5.7) 5 5.5 0.8% 1 Raymon Taylor CB 5'10, 169 So. **** (5.8) Tamani Carter CB 5'11, 175 RSFr. *** (5.5) Jarrod Wilson DB 6'2, 190 Fr. **** (5.8) Terry Richardson DB 5'9, 160 Fr. **** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Will Hagerup 6'4, 210 Jr. 29 36.0 1 8 5 44.8% Matt Wile 6'2, 208 So. 17 41.6 0 5 4 52.9% Kicker Ht, Wt 2012

Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% Matt Wile 6'2, 208 So. 79 64 19 24.1% Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Brendan Gibbons 6'1, 227 Jr. 54-55 11-13 84.6% 2-4 50.0% Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012

Year Returns Avg. TD Martavious Odoms KR 19 21.2 0 Vincent Smith KR 5'6, 172 Sr. 7 18.4 0 Kelvin Grady KR 3 19.0 0 Jeremy Gallon PR 5'8, 185 Jr. 19 10.1 0

Category Rk Special Teams F/+ 50 Net Punting 109 Net Kickoffs 41 Touchback Pct 24 Field Goal Pct 35 Kick Returns Avg 117 Punt Returns Avg 53

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.