A good deal of recent commentary presumes that the flip side of Labor’s crisis is the Coalition having won popular acclaim for its policies and politics. Its logic is that an Abbott landslide would confirm that the electorate has moved to the right or, as Greens leader Christine Milne recently put it, that “the country is going conservative”.

What if something else was going on? What if many voters parked with the Coalition were desperately looking for a reason not to vote for the right, but that Labor in its current configuration was too entrenched in crisis to give them one?

A closer look at polling data suggests that Abbott is in a much weaker position than the two-party preferred vote would indicate. For example, the often-repeated claim that he is a uniquely effective opposition leader is undermined by Newspoll data on his performance, which consistently showed dissatisfaction running 20% or more ahead of satisfaction all through last year. His party fares little better: according to Essential Research, 67% of voters think the Liberals “will promise to do anything to win votes”, 59% think they are “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, and 54% think they are “out of touch with ordinary people”.

Voters often tell pollsters the conservatives are “better economic managers” than Labor, but Newspoll reveals that over six Labor budgets, there was never a majority of people who thought the LNP would’ve done a better job in the same economic conditions. Voters also generally prefer old-style government intervention to the Coalition’s “free market” agenda. While Joe Hockey bemoans subsidies to save jobs in car manufacturing, according to Essential a majority of Coalition voters think it is important “Australia has a car manufacturing industry, even if it costs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in government support”. A large proportion of LNP voters favour higher taxes on corporations and the rich (rather than cuts to welfare and infrastructure) to balance the budget, and around half think that big business, mining companies and high-income earners don’t pay enough tax.

Some 54% of LNP voters think that privatisation of public services — a key part of Liberal philosophy — is a bad idea in general. On industrial relations, 74% of Coalition voters support penalty rates, while 28% think workers would be better off with stronger unions.

Given the gap between social attitudes and Coalition policy, it is unsurprising that more voters expect many social and economic indicators to get worse if Abbott wins than those who expect things to get better — including their own financial situation.

Moreover, some of Labor’s key policies are strongly liked despite the party’s poor standing. In September last year more voters gave a series of Labor’s policy achievements the thumbs up than those who thought they were bad, the exception being the carbon tax. The National Broadband Network, subject to constant LNP criticism, had 73% support in March. In the same poll, the mining tax still had 57% support despite having been exposed as virtually ineffective. In April, despite Abbott announcing he opposed it, 49% of LNP voters said they supported the Gonski school-funding model, with only 31% against.

The lack of enthusiasm for the conservatives was borne out in a remarkable poll of 24 marginal seats in March. It found a two-party preferred voting intention of 59.4% for the Coalition, but at the same time only 43% said they wanted an LNP government! Abbott’s tenuous position was also revealed in last weekend’s Galaxy and Nielsen polls, which predicted a massive swing to Labor if Kevin Rudd was reinstalled.

How are these findings to be understood? It is obvious that the ALP is suffering a deep crisis of its social base, organisation, internal power structures and ideology. But in fact this is just part of a crisis of the wider political establishment, which leaves all politicians vulnerable to sudden electoral shifts as voters seek to punish them for being out of touch and beholden to vested interests.

Mavericks like Italy’s Beppe Grillo and Britain’s right-wing UKIP party have made electoral breakthroughs by tapping into disaffection with the political system. Ironically, the Gillard camp’s demonisation of Rudd may have boosted his outsider status, which he successfully used during the “Kevin07” campaign – and which could destabilise a disliked conservative insider like Abbott. And even if Abbott wins, the Coalition’s fragile position won’t be resolved simply because he is prime minister.

Expect more crisis and volatility either way.