Here we go again

Here we go again. As Israelis and Palestinians resume direct peace talks, misinformed pundits and Republicans with an agenda are busy forecasting a Jewish revolt against Democrats in an upcoming election. While a Bill Kristol and Gary Bauer organization runs attack ads against Democrats who “joined an assault on Israel” by signing a letter favoring aid to Gaza, The New York Times’ Charles Blow writes that President Barack Obama isn’t “good for the Jews.” We’ve heard this sort of “oy vey” attack and analysis before. The attacks haven’t worked in the past, and the analysis is still wrong.

In 2004, a minority of vocal Republican Jews argued that President George W. Bush was such a “good friend of Israel” that American Jews would abandon the Democrats to reelect him. John Kerry received 74 percent of the Jewish vote.


In 2008, the argument moved from Republican greatness to Jewish worry over Obama’s “secret Muslim identity” and an anti-Israel vision antithetical to American Jews. The right wing spread vicious e-mail smears through Jewish inboxes everywhere and ran ads conflating Obama with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The return on investment? Obama got 78 percent of the Jewish vote — virtually the same as Al Gore received with an Orthodox Jew on the ticket eight years earlier, when Gore and Joe Lieberman received 79 percent of the Jewish vote.

Now, with midterm elections approaching, the voices proclaiming Jewish revolt are in full force. This time, they say Democrats will lose Jewish support because Obama is unduly pressuring Israel. As usual, these arguments are based on arbitrary quotes from the leaders of lobbying organizations or someone’s Aunt Esther. It ignores the actual data reflecting the opinions of rank-and-file American Jews.

The starting point for separating anecdote from fact is to understand that Israel is not a voting priority for American Jews. In surveys that my firm has conducted for J Street in the 2008 and 2010 election cycles, only 8 percent to 10 percent of Jews cite Israel as one of the top two issues determining their vote. In other words, an overwhelming 90 percent of Jews don’t consider Israel as one of their top two issues.

For Jews, Israel is a threshold issue rather than a high priority. That is, candidates must demonstrate they are “good enough” on Israel. However, once they pass this threshold — as Obama, Kerry and Bill Clinton did — Jewish voters move on to consider issues that actually affect their daily lives, just like other voters.

This threshold is actually fairly easy to pass because most Jewish voters hold very progressive views regarding America and the Arab-Israeli conflict. In fact, large majorities want the U.S. to play an active leadership role to resolve the conflict, even if it means publicly disagreeing with or exerting pressure on both the Palestinians and the Israelis to take the steps necessary for peace.

So are the pundits off base yet again this cycle in predicting a decline in Jewish support for Democrats in the midterm elections? This time around, there will undoubtedly be some decrease when compared with the past two cycles. As the party out of power in terrible economic times, the Republicans have a powerful political wind at their back.

There will be Democratic losses across the country, and there will be a decline in support for the party among nearly every constituency. The right wing of American Jewry will no doubt try to spin this result into a statement about Obama’s “hostility toward Israel.” Theirs will be a loud narrative, fueled by Likud and settler supporters in America. But it will lack any evidence.

Currently, the Jewish vote is where we would expect it. Gallup reported in June that Democrats are getting 62 percent of the Jewish vote (which rises to 69 percent when allocating undecided voters). Last week, Gallup reported that Obama’s job approval with Jews remained 13 points above the national electorate, a margin that has remained consistent throughout his presidency. Clearly, Democrats’ political challenges are not with American Jews.

As Israelis and Palestinians sit down for direct talks, we can be sure that some Jewish hawks will attack President Obama for hurting Israel and some journalists will write about the Jewish threat to punish Obama. And once again, they will both be out of touch with Jewish voters.

Jim Gerstein is a founding partner of Gerstein | Agne Strategic Communications.