David Cutcliffe 11-16-13

Duke coach David Cutcliffe has the Blue Devils in sole possession of first place in the ACC's Coastal Division after Saturday's 48-30 defeat of Miami on Saturday.

(AP Photo | Gerry Broome)

The ACC's Atlantic Division sorted itself out rather tidily, with Florida State taking full control of its side of the conference in mid-October and clinching a place in the league title game by Nov. 9.

The Coastal Division ... not so much.

Four teams can still earn a place in the ACC title game from the Coastal. A fifth can still share the division title and be a factor in a few of the 32 tiebreaker scenarios that still exist.

Oh, yes, the tiebreakers. And although math and football don't always mix well, it's worthwhile to dig into every possible outcome remaining in that half of the conference.

Of the 32 scenarios, Virginia Tech wins 11, Duke has the edge in 10, Georgia Tech captures nine and Miami snags two. In eight cases (all of which have Duke winning out), the top record is 6-2. In the other 24, a 5-3 team heads to the league title game.

The scenarios are based on the outcomes of five remaining relevant games: Duke-Wake Forest and Virginia-Miami next week, and Miami-Pittsburgh, Duke-North Carolina and Virginia Tech-Virginia on the final weekend of the season. The chances that, say, Virginia wins its final two games appear to be slim. Nonetheless, those possibilities are included as well as every other scenario that could unfold.

Here's a team-by-team breakdown of all 32 outcomes:

VIRGINIA TECH SCENARIOS Scenario Duke-WF UVa-Mia Mia-Pitt Duke-UNC VT-UVa Winner 1 Duke Miami Miami UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 2 Duke Miami Pitt UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 3 Duke Virginia Miami UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 4 Duke Virginia Pitt UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 5 Wake Miami Miami UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 6 Wake Miami Pitt Duke Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 7 Wake Miami Pitt UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 8 Wake Virginia Miami Duke Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 9 Wake Virginia Miami UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 10 Wake Virginia Pitt Duke Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 11 Wake Virginia Pitt UNC Virginia Tech Virginia Tech

There's one thing that absolutely has to happen for Virginia Tech to win the Coastal: The Hokies must defeat Virginia on the final Saturday of the season to have any sort of chance.

Even then, Virginia Tech will be hashing out tiebreakers.

In Scenario 1, Virginia Tech wins a five-way tie with Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami and North Carolina based on record within a five-team minigroup. Virginia Tech is 3-1, while Duke, Miami and Georgia Tech would be 2-2 and North Carolina would be 1-3.

In Scenarios 2-4, Virginia Tech wins a four-way tie with Duke, Georgia Tech and North Carolina based on record within a four-team minigroup. Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are 2-1, while Duke and North Carolina would be 1-2. Virginia Tech would win based on its head-to-head defeat of Georgia Tech.

Scenario 5 leaves a four-way tie between Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. The Hokies swept those three opponents and would win the tiebreak.

In Scenarios 6, 8 and 10, there's a three-way tie between Duke, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. That group went 1-1 against each other, so the next tiebreak is Coastal Division record. Virginia Tech (5-1) would trump both Duke (4-2) and Georgia Tech (4-2).

Scenarios 7, 9 and 11 produce a three-way tie between Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. The Hokies swept both teams during the regular season.

DUKE SCENARIOS Scenario Duke-WF UVa-Mia Mia-Pitt Duke-UNC VT-UVa Winner 1 Duke Miami Miami Duke Virginia Tech Duke 2 Duke Miami Miami Duke Virginia Duke 3 Duke Miami Pitt Duke Virginia Tech Duke 4 Duke Miami Pitt Duke Virginia Duke 5 Duke Virginia Miami Duke Virginia Tech Duke 6 Duke Virginia Miami Duke Virginia Duke 7 Duke Virginia Pitt Duke Virginia Tech Duke 8 Duke Virginia Pitt Duke Virginia Duke 9 Wake Miami Miami Duke Virginia Tech Duke 10 Wake Miami Miami Duke Virginia Duke

The first eight scenarios boil down to two outcomes: Duke defeats Wake Forest, then upends North Carolina to win the division outright at 6-2.

In Scenario 9, Duke finds itself in a four-way tie for the lead with Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia Tech. In that four team mini-group, Duke went 2-1, as did Virginia Tech, while both Georgia Tech and Miami were 1-2. Duke would then win the division based on its head-to-head defeat of the Hokies.

The 10th Scenario is maybe the trickiest of any of the possible outcomes. It would leave Duke, Georgia Tech and Miami in a three-way tie, and those teams all went 1-1 against each other. Their Coastal Division records would be an identical 4-2, which leads to the third tiebreaker

That would be this gem straight out of the ACC media guide: "Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) conference win percentage, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last, using the league's tie-breaker policies."

There's two interpretations of this. One is that three-team group gets sized up based on how it did against the 4-4 teams (North Carolina and Virginia Tech). Because Duke swept them and both Miami and Georgia Tech lost to Virginia Tech, Duke would get the tiebreaker.

The other interpretation is that Virginia Tech would be the first opponent the tied teams would be evaluated against based on its victory over North Carolina. Nonetheless, Duke still wins the tiebreaker.

GEORGIA TECH SCENARIOS Scenario Duke-WF UVa-Mia Mia-Pitt Duke-UNC VT-UVa Winner 1 Duke Miami Pitt UNC Virginia Georgia Tech 2 Duke Virginia Miami UNC Virginia Georgia Tech 3 Duke Virginia Pitt UNC Virginia Georgia Tech 4 Wake Miami Pitt Duke Virginia Georgia Tech 5 Wake Miami Pitt UNC Virginia Georgia Tech 6 Wake Virginia Miami Duke Virginia Georgia Tech 7 Wake Virginia Miami UNC Virginia Georgia Tech 8 Wake Virginia Pitt Duke Virginia Georgia Tech 9 Wake Virginia Pitt UNC Virginia Georgia Tech



Georgia Tech is done league play at 5-3, so it is at the mercy of everyone else. The Yellow Jackets cannot win the division without a Virginia Tech loss or a Miami loss.

So if Virginia Tech beats Virginia, Georgia Tech is done.

In Scenarios 1-3, Georgia Tech is in a three-way tie with Duke and North Carolina. It beat both teams, so it would win the tiebreaker.

In Scenarios 4, 6 and 8, only Georgia Tech and Duke are tied at 5-3, and the Yellow Jackets would win that based on their head-to-head triumph against the Blue Devils.

In Scenarios 5, 7 and 9, only Georgia Tech and North Carolina are tied at 5-3, and the Yellow Jackets would win that based on their head-to-head defeat of the Tar Heels.

MIAMI SCENARIOS Scenario Duke-WF UVa-Mia Mia-Pitt Duke-UNC VT-UVa Winner 1 Duke Miami Miami UNC Virginia Miami 2 Wake Miami Miami UNC Virginia Miami

The Hurricanes might harbor the longest odds of winning the division. Like Georgia Tech, it is dependent upon Virginia upsetting Virginia Tech in two weeks.

In Scenario 1, Miami is in a four-way tie with Duke, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Miami's mini-group record would be 2-1, as would Georgia Tech's. Duke and North Carolina would be 1-2. Based on Miami's head-to-head defeat of Georgia Tech, it would win the Coastal.

In Scenario 2, Miami is in a three-way tie with Georgia Tech and North Carolina. It beat both of those teams would claim the tiebreaker and a spot in the league title game.

With all that math out of the way, here are nine other abbreviated observations from the weekend that was in the ACC …

Florida State scaled the 50-points-a-game plateau in conference play. The Seminoles (10-0, 8-0 ACC) with a 411-98 scoring advantage against conference opponents. The points scored is a league record, surpassing 2000 Florida State (395) and 1993 Florida State (391). Only one other defense allowed less than 100 points in league play since 2001: Virginia Tech with 86 points yielded in 2005.

The Seminoles might not be the best ACC team ever; those 1993 and 1999 teams in Tallahassee won national titles. But they very much belong in the conversation.

There is zero reason to draw any conclusions about Syracuse from its loss at Florida State. Syracuse's 59-3 trip behind the woodshed wasn't pleasant. But it also was exactly the same treatment nearly everyone that's encountered the Seminoles has received this season. The Orange (5-5, 3-3) can still finish with a winning record and go to a third bowl in four years. Those are the measures that should define Scott Shafer's team, not whether it couldn't handle an unbeaten national title contender.

Is Miami toast for 2013? The Hurricanes have given up at least 41 points in three consecutive games, emphatically plummeting after a 7-0 start got them into the top 10 nationally. Miami (7-3, 3-3) finishes with Virginia (a team that's been free-falling even longer than the Hurricanes) and erratic Pittsburgh. While slim Coastal Division hopes remain, Miami's defense is going to need to rediscover itself if the Hurricanes are going to feel remotely good about this season at year's end.

Virginia Tech did something only Virginia has done. When it comes to football, it hasn't been a good idea to get lumped with Virginia for much of anything in the last few years. It's even worse if you're Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-3), which with a 27-24 loss to Maryland became only the second team in the ACC's expansion era (since 2005) to lose to Boston College, Duke and Maryland in the same year. The Hokies' company? 2010 Virginia.

Maryland finally busted through for bowl eligibility. It took four tries, but the short-handed Terrapins (6-4, 2-4) earned an improbable victory in Blacksburg to likely secure a bowl bid for the first time in coach Randy Edsall's three seasons. Maryland has matched its victory total from Edsall's first two years and will have the benefit of three extra weeks of practice and a postseason bid as it heads into the Big Ten next season.

Andre Williams has left his name in the ACC record book. The Boston College tailback ran for an ACC-record 339 yards in Saturday's rout of N.C. State and now has a conference-record 1,810 yards for the season. The Eagles (6-4, 3-3) largely because first-year coach Steve Addazio opted to play to what few strengths he inherited rather than force a system on his new players. Boston College's greatest strength: The senior who carried the ball 42 times on Saturday.

North Carolina has dug itself out of a 1-5 hole. The Tar Heels have ripped off four consecutive victories after building a large lead, giving it away and then moving ahead again in a 34-27 victory over Pittsburgh. A split against Old Dominion and Duke gets North Carolina into a bowl game. A victory over the Blue Devils gets the Tar Heels a share of a division title. Not bad for a team left for dead a month ago.

Pittsburgh still hasn't won consecutive games since September. The opportunity was there for the Panthers (5-5, 2-4), but they allowed two punt returns for touchdowns against North Carolina to fall back to .500. Will Pitt make it to a bowl game? Probably, if only because this erratic team appears destined to go 6-6 for the third straight regular season. Nonetheless, beating either Syracuse on the road or Miami at home will not be easy

That's that for N.C. State. The Wolfpack (3-7, 0-7) are now without any postseason hopes after dropping their sixth consecutive game. All they can do is avoid their first winless ACC season and second nine-loss season since 1959 (the 2006 edition of N.C. State was 3-9 overall and 2-6 in the ACC). Dave Doeren's first season went poorly, but there should be progress next year when quarterback Jacoby Brissett, a Florida transfer, becomes eligible.