It only took two weeks before the NFL once again demonstrated the more-or-less complete futility in attempting to predict it.

Three teams that won last week: the Oakland Raiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The last week all three of these teams won? Week 8 of the 2010 season.

So, yes, this whole intro was basically just an underhanded, statistically distracting way of exonerating me of last weeks picks--but damn was it effective. I perfectly reversed week 1's good fortunes by going 6-10, putting me at a disconcerting 16-16 for the season (you can see last week's picks here). This performance inspired me to stop officially documenting my predictions almost as much as week 1 inspired me to start this ill-conceived venture, but alas, I trudge onward.

A slight change to my methodology this week: I will analyze the games and set my own lines before looking at Vegas's, and then make my pick based on which side of Vegas's line mine falls. I got the feeling after the dust settled last week that I made a mistake by reading too many other predictions and lines before picking the games--I'd rather not regurgitate the analysis of someone else via second hand, semi-conscious influence.

Here's the format:

Pick every game ATS each week

Indicate how confident I feel about each pick with (*****) indicating a lock and (*) indicating an utter lack of confidence



indicating a and indicating an utter lack of confidence Betting lines comprised of the most common line on Vegas Insider (the "VI Consensus") at the time of writing

Last weeks picks:

DEN @ KC (-3) HOU @ CAR (-4.5) TB @ NO (-10.5) SF @ PIT (-6.5) DET @ MIN (-2.5) NE (-1.5) @ BUF ARZ (-1.5) @ CHI TEN (-1) @ CLE SD @ CIN (-3) STL (-3.5) @ WASH ATL @ NYG (-2.5) BAL (-6.5) @ OAK MIA (-6) @ JAX DAL @ PHI (-5) SEA @ GB (-3.5) NYJ @ IND (-7)

(GREEN indicates I got it right, BOLD indicates my pick)

This week:

WASH @ NYG (-3) (**)

The Redskins are in the... uh... enviable... position of being labeled a dysfunctional franchise doomed to feel the crushing influence of the ill-fated RG3 saga for years to come. This is enviable, you see, in a certain fucked up way, because every year a "dumpster fire" team, free of the burden of expectations, sneaks up on everyone and has a decent year. That's however an analysis for another day. What's clear is that Washington has found a running game, and their much maligned O-line was blocking 1st round D-lineman out of the stadium last week.

This is a very tough one to call. Did the Redskins out-muscle a talented, tough Rams team last week? Or did they beat another inconsistent Rams team suffering from their latest Seahawk-induced hangover? After narrowly squeaking out a 28-26 victory over Seattle last year, the Rams were promptly blown out 34-7 the next week in Kansas City.

Defensively, the Redskins are very tough against the run, but the Giants' offense isn't really predicated on the run. On Thursday Night, at home, it's time for OBJ to power the Giants to their first win.

CIN @ BAL (-2.5) (***)

John Harbaugh caught some flack for calling the Bengals "the most talented team in the league" this week, but I think he might be on to something. Great minds think alike, and if you remember, I made a similar assertion in last weeks picks--"But Cincinnati is legit, mark my words. Put them up there with Denver and Seattle in terms of total talent". Since I know no one marked my words, I'm doing it for you.

NO @ CAR (-3) (*****)

My first lock of the season. This line makes no sense to me.

OAK @ CLE (-3.5) (**)

ATL (-1) @ DAL (**)

For the first time, Dallas's defense might be good enough to carry them through a Romo-injury (especially once they get Gregory and Hardy). I get the feeling Atlanta is playing better than their talent level, and that catches up to them this weekend. Brandon Weeden actually looked pretty good last week (7-7, TD), and, if nothing else, he does have a good arm to push the ball downfield.

TB @ HOU (-6.5) (*)

SD @ MIN (-2.5) (***)

JAX @ NE (-13.5) (***)

PHI @ NYJ (-2) (*)

I just have a feeling Philly won't go another week with such pitiful offensive production. The Jets defense is obviously very tough, and I can't imagine the Eagles will be able to run at their stacked D-line, but Darrelle Revis is a game time decision, and, with their backs nearing the wall, I think Chip Kelly will find a way to exploit some of the many matchup problems his talented offense can present.

Perhaps more importantly, the Eagles defense has played well against two great offenses to this point. The Fitzpatrick-led Jets offense represents a huge drop-off from the Falcons and Cowboys, especially with Chris Ivory nursing an injury. Byron Maxwell should match-up better with the tall, but not particularity quick, duo of Marshall and Decker than he did against the ungodly Julio Jones.

PIT @ STL (Pick em') (**)

IND (-3) @ TEN (*)

SF @ ARZ (-6.5) (**)

The thing to remember here is that this is a divisional game, and NFC West divisional games always turn into slug-fests, for lack of a better word. San Fran won't be going into Arizona afraid. San Fran hasn't quite lost enough veteran players to have forgotten all of the times they've beaten Arizona in recent years.

BUF @ MIA (-3) (**)

CHI @ SEA (14.5) (***)

In league of parity, a spread this big should always be looked at with scrutiny. Do I think the Seahawks will demolish the Bears? Absolutely. But will the score reflect it to the tune of more than two touchdowns? Not likely when it comes to Seattle's conservative attack.

DEN (-3) @ DET (***)

KC @ GB (-6.5) (**)