That said, assuming that Erdogan runs for the highest office in the land and gets elected, the day he takes his oath in the parliament as president, he would have no organic link left with the AKP due to constitutional requirements. Plus, the government would automatically expire. What would that mean?

Let’s now try to clarify what it is that Gul and Erdogan need to discuss. A major issue is that when Turks head to the polls in August to elect the next president, they will be doing so under the current constitution. The parliament’s constitution drafting commission, which was put together in May 2012 by three deputies from each elected party, yielded no conclusive result mainly due to the government’s insistence on changing the country’s parliamentary system into a presidential one.

Erdogan approved of this approach the next day. “I also share our president’s approach to discuss this issue first between us to reach a decision,” the prime minister said on April 4 . “There are also many people who express their views about our party’s regulations regarding the three-term limit to run for elections. I have stated my position on this issue before. I am for the three-term limit. Yet, if there is going to be a change to this, it has to be done in the party’s general assembly meeting.”

“In view of local elections being completed, and with the next election coming in August to determine the country’s next president, it is time to talk about [whom the AKP will select as its candidate],” Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on April 3 . “Once the local election results are officially announced [by the Supreme Election Board, YSK] in late April or early May, we will sit down to talk about all that needs to be clarified [with the prime minister] and will decide accordingly.”

It would mean, according to Turkish laws, that the deputy prime minister in charge of political and legal affairs would take over as acting prime minister. That would be Mehmet Ali Sahin. Two actions would follow this. Ruling party insiders told Al-Monitor that Sahin would call the party to an extraordinary general assembly meeting in 15 days to elect the party’s chairman; it is possible that Turkey would have no government in place for that period. Once the party decided on its next chairman, Erdogan would then assign this new leader of the AKP to form the government. Or the president could assign an AKP member to form the government without waiting for the party to elect its next chairman. But only an already elected member of the AKP could be assigned to form the government, and the new prime minister would have to present the new cabinet to a parliamentary confidence vote. AKP insiders believe that this would be no problem as long as Gul and Erdogan reach an agreement beforehand.

That is the Catch-22. There is still uncertainty in the Ankara beltway whether Gul and Erdogan will be able to overcome their differences and agree on a common course forward. “Look, even if Gul gets elected as the chairman of the party in this exceptional general assembly meeting, he still cannot become the prime minister,” one party insider who asked to remain anonymous told Al-Monitor. “Gul is not an elected member of the parliament, so he will have no authority to form the government. However, if Gul and Erdogan agree on a common path forward, Erdogan can assign one of the party members to be the caretaker prime minister to form the government until the next general election when Gul can get elected, and things then would fall into place. Although that general election is scheduled for June 2015, we can do it around April. That eight months will be no issue for anyone; the party will easily handle that.”

If there is no deal between Gul and Erdogan, there will certainly be other things to talk about — even a potential split in the party. “That is really not a likely scenario,” one party insider told Al-Monitor. “There is, however, another option. It is kind of an evil scenario and I hope the party won’t really push the limits that much. The thing is, Gul can resign from the presidency 45 days ahead of the Aug. 10 election. According to our laws, the speaker of the parliament, Cemil Cicek, would then assume Gul’s duties as acting president. And on the day of the presidential election, Gul would also get elected to the parliament from Bayburt.”

There is only one seat in the parliament from Bayburt, which is occupied by an AKP deputy. The talk is that this deputy would resign to allow an early election to fill his seat and that Gull would run for it to be elected to the parliament. “That is possible, but it will be too difficult to rally the people behind this,” this party insider told Al-Monitor, casting doubt that Gul would choose to take this course.

As for the party’s three-term limit, people in the Ankara beltway seem to have already presumed this as an insignificant detail for Erdogan’s future. According to the party regulations (Article 132), no mayor or deputy can run for office consecutively more than three terms. “This could be an issue for those deputies in the parliament who won’t be able to run in the next election,” the same party insider told Al-Monitor. “This is, however, not a relevant issue for the prime minister any longer. It will be a surprise after these local election results if he does not run for the presidency.”

In sum, unknown and unprecedented developments are still ahead as Turkey readies to elect its next president by public vote for the first time. There is, however, near certainty that Erdogan will run for the presidency. And there is a sort of disbelief about the opposition’s ability to choose a candidate who could actually defeat Erdogan at the ballot box. Put simply, the ruling party insiders here in Ankara strongly believe that the country’s economic stability depends upon the agreement between Gul and Erdogan, and they sound confident that the two will reach a deal that will please both sides.