There is no obvious reason for Victorians to reject Daniel Andrews’ Labor government after a single term in office. The state has the strongest economy in the nation. It has infrastructure projects worth billions in the pipeline. On social issues, from assisted dying to safe injecting rooms, Labor has been bold, and its investment of $2bn in domestic violence is ambitious and overdue.

And it remains energetic, with huge new projects proposed for a second term, and more work on entrenched social problems, including a proposed royal commission into mental health.

Compared with the federal government, it is functioning and stable – Andrews has been the leader the whole four years. “Delivering for all Victorians” is a pedestrian but apt slogan.

Matthew Guy’s Coalition had to come up with something and its “back in control” mantra must have seemed clever. It meant Guy, a moderate and personable Liberal, had to ramp up his rhetoric to convince Victorians that the state is in chaos.

It didn’t quite work, although Guy tried hard to exploit terrorism events in the last weeks of the campaign. He did well in articulating the unease about Melbourne’s record population growth better than Andrews, who falls back on “building things”, without comprehending that the unease is not just about a demand for an infrastructure catch-up but an anxiety about whether we’ll ever catch up and what our quality of life may be if we do.

There is scepticism about Guy’s plans to decentralise the state but his ideas about a minister for population to oversee planning for growth, greater state involvement in where migrants go, and even his big regional rail rebuild have merit – if you can forgive the wobbly costing and timeframes.

The other “out of control” refrain is about crime, and it is here that the Liberals sniffed their longshot chance to win and stoked their rhetoric to the point of absurdity.

Perhaps it can be dismissed as politics but it’s been deceptive, particularly the politicisation of the Bourke Street terrorism incident a fortnight ago, when a radicalised Islamist, Hassan Khalif Shire Ali, ignited his vehicle and then stabbed to death the well-known cafe owner Sisto Malaspina.

First, some facts about crime, and an acknowledgement that statistics are complicated and influenced by police priorities. The latest crime incident rate figures revealed a 7.8% drop in the year to June, the lowest level in three years.

No one doubts home invasions are terrifying, but Guy talks as though Victoria is in a state of Mad Max-style lawlessness

But the fall follows a spike in the two previous years, and there have been increases in the rate of some violent crimes, such as aggravated burglary and assaults (although a better response to family violence is one reason assault reports are up).

There are problems but the Conversation’s FactCheck found that Guy’s claim that the state had the highest rate of crime in the country was false.

No one doubts home invasions are terrifying, but Guy talks as though Victoria is in a state of Mad Max-style lawlessness. Crime is “out of control”, he says, snapping at Andrews during an ABC debate on Wednesday that “if you can’t keep your citizens safe you are failing at the first hurdle of responsibility”.

For some reason, Andrews rabbited on about the importance of Tafe for reducing youth crime – never try subtlety in a leaders’ debate – but the truth is that his government has been so “tough” on law and order that legal groups and anyone remotely interested in criminology have despaired.

Extensive bail reform after James Gargasoulas mowed down six pedestrians last year just days after being released by a bail justice has made the system the toughest in the country, according to experts.

Matthew Guy campaigns with his wife Renae in Cranbourne. Photograph: David Crosling/AAP

There is now a presumption against bail for serious crimes such as rape, armed robbery and culpable driving causing death. Sentences have been increased and judicial discretion reduced. New offences for aggravated carjacking and aggravated home invasions attract minimum three-year terms.

Easy-as-pie bail? You have to be kidding. A decade ago fewer than 20% of prisoners in Victoria were yet to face trial – which means they were refused bail and held on remand. Now it’s well over 30%. This government has responded to populist media scaremongering on crime in a way that should make conservatives swoon.

The government is far from perfect. It has a record, and there have been scandals, with several ministers resigning for rorting expenses and allowances. It is astonishing that 21 MPs are under investigation by police over the so-called Red Shirts affair – the use of taxpayers’ money to pay campaign staff during the 2014 election campaign.

If it makes no difference, it may be because people surmise that the practice was wrong but not a catastrophic sin, because the money has been repaid and because they suspect other parties may be impure in this regard too.

Or perhaps they will choose to overlook it because Labor has “delivered” on key state issues such as health, education and transport. Or perhaps because of the Victorian “difference”. The biggest-selling newspaper, the Herald Sun, rails against Labor to little effect and Andrews refuses to go on 3aw’s Neil Mitchell program because he doesn’t believe he gets a fair go. That would be like a NSW premier snubbing Alan Jones. Andrews is many things, but he is not intimidated by anyone.

The Coalition bangs on about integrity, but its own is hardly intact at the end of this campaign. The Shire Ali terrorist incident was a heinous crime, and it was revealed a week later – by the media, not by police or politicians – that he was on bail at the time. His passport was cancelled several years ago when Asio believed he was planning to travel to Syria, but he was not being actively monitored because the assessment was that he posed a low risk.

Andrews is many things, but he is not intimidated by anyone

He was not on bail for violent crimes. He was bailed for minor traffic offences – such as speeding and driving without a licence – and had not turned to up to court on several occasions. In October, roadside police pulled him over and extended his bail on the spot. He was due in court in January.

Victoria police chief commissioner Graham Ashton said the officers’ actions were routine. “He was never going to be remanded on drive-while-suspended offences,” Ashton told 3AW. “If we were going to be remanding everyone for drive whilst suspended, there wouldn’t be enough prisons to hold everyone.” Being on an Asio watchlist is not a criminal offence, he pointed out.

The Liberals propose that any breach of bail – no matter how minor the alleged offence – would mean people were locked up on remand. Shire Ali should not have been on bail, Guy said at the leaders’ debate. “He wouldn’t have been under the laws that we’ve proposed.”

The government scoffs, but this was an emotional time in Victoria, and they sensed the danger.

The attorney general, Martin Pakula, told the ABC he didn’t believe for a moment his opposite number, John Pesutto, would implement the Coalition’s policy.

“He is suggesting that every drunk, every vagrant, every homeless person, every drug addict, every person with a driving offence who might miss a police appointment or a court hearing would go to jail before they’ve been convicted and for offences that would never accrue jail time.”

That’s a reasonable summary of the absurdity of the Coalition’s policy.

Just as brazen was its attempt to make mileage over the arrests this week of three men accused of plotting an Islamic State-inspired attack designed to kill as many people as possible. That could be viewed as state and federal authorities working well together to thwart a potentially horrific crime. But Guy and his team suggested that they would have done a better job in foiling the plot than the government because of their supposedly superior anti-terrorism policies.

The Liberals believed these awful incidents gave them their best chance to win an election long considered Labor’s to lose.

Opinion polls suggest they may have failed, but if they pull it off, it would be a triumph of cynical politics. Guy’s campaign was all about emotion, and people are always susceptible to fear. On Saturday night we’ll know whether a semblance of rationality survives.