It was the morning of July 31, 2015. I had stayed up late the previous night and had work off the next day, so naturally – I had stayed up to the late hours of the night spamming the refresh button on my twitter feed to see if Russell Wilson would sign a deal. I went to sleep that night at 1am without hope.

The deal wasn’t going to get done.

But that’s not what happened. I woke up that morning to about 11 missed calls, 35 texts, and multiple voicemails from friends trying to alert me that Russell had signed a contract. After realizing the news, I stared at my phone in disbelief for about 30 seconds – and then did a quick shirtless fist pumping run around my neighborhood. The deal was done. And many eyes were scarred permanently.

Russell Wilson had signed a four-year extension that would keep the third round pick in Seattle for the next five years. We could breath easy for a while. Finally, all the "Wilson to Philly/Cleveland" articles would be put to rest. Seahawks nation could breathe again.

Now that the deal is done (and that I’ve calmed down since my original state), let’s take a real close look at the contract they’ve signed and see how it will effect the Seahawks for the coming years.

Quick Facts

We’re going to start off easy and end up difficult- so bear with me. Many fans (and especially the media) love to compare player contracts with simple statistics such as average annual value (AAV), new money APY, highest total value. These numbers are apart of the deal – but they’re not the best way to compare contracts. They’re not the numbers the Seahawks negotiators and Mark Rodgers were discussing in the hours before the deadline. There are several much better ways to compare quarterback contracts and we’ll get there later. But anyways – fans especially love to throw around these simple numbers in arguments...so I’ll just give them to you.

Russell Wilson signed a 4 year extension worth 87.6 million dollars, per Over the Cap. If you include his last year of his rookie deal where he was slated to make 1.5 million, Russell Wilson is being paid 17.82 million per year in AAV. If you disregard the last year of his rookie deal, Wilson is making 21.9m per year in new money (2nd among quarterbacks). This 21.9m number puts Russell Wilson as slightly higher paid than Ben Roethlisberger and a tick under Aaron Rodgers in terms of new money APY.

Structure of the Deal

Wilson, before signing his contract, was slated to have a cap hit of 1.5 million in 2015 as the last year of his rookie deal.

Below is the structure for Wilson’s contract. Working for Over the Cap has ingrained in me a specific way to present contracts – so many of you will recognize the columns categorization below as familiar.

Wilson’s signing bonus of 31 million is prorated over five years. Signing bonuses are money paid immediately to the player upon signing the contract – but for cap purposes spread out over five years or the life of the contract (but 5 years is the limit). This essentially gives clubs the ability to put money in the hands of the player immediately and entice them to sign a contract...but the cap hit is spread out. Wilson’s signing bonus prorates to a 6.2m cap hit per year (except for 2015 – which I will explain).

In 2015 – Russell’s base salary will be 700k (fully GTD) plus his $6,354,868 signing bonus proration. The reason his signing bonus is more than 6.2m is because there was still a $154,868 signing bonus proration leftover from his rookie contract. Wilson’s 2015 cap hit will be $7,054,868.

In 2016 – Wilson will have a base salary of $12,340,000. This money becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the waiver period. Adding it the 6.2m in proration – Wilson will have an $18,540,000 hit for 2016.

In 2017 – Wilson will have a base salary of $12,600,000. Again, this money becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2017 waiver period. Adding in the 6.2m proration – Wilson will have a $18,800,000 cap hit for 2017.

In 2018 – Wilson will have a base salary of $15,500,000. On the fifth day of the waiver period of 2018 – 4.9 million of his 2018 base salary will become fully guaranteed. Adding in the 6.2 proration – Wilson will have a cap hit of $21,700,000 in 2018.

In 2019, Wilson will have a base salary of $17,000,000. This money will never become full guaranteed unless the Seahawks do a restructure down the road (which is entirely possible and even probable). Adding in the 6.2m proration – Wilson will have a $23,200,000 cap hit in 2019.

It’s important to note that Wilson’s 2016 and 2017 base salaries as well as 4.9m of his 2018 base salary are guaranteed for injury only and then become fully guaranteed upon the fifth day of the waiver period of their respective years.

Percentage of the Cap

Many fans, experts, and media commentators love to bring up the statistic of how much a QB takes up a team’s salary cap. They then like to draw comparisons and analyze the relationship between a player’s cap percentage and the team’s chance of winning a Super Bowl.

Jason Drake from Fieldgulls wrote a phenomenal article on this back in January and you can find it here: http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-analysis/2015/7/14/8964377/quarterback-salary-as-a-percentage-of-cap

Anyways, let’s find out how much of the cap Russell Wilson will occupy in the coming years. (Sidenote: these cap projections are assuming the NFL continues to appreciate around 7-8% a year. Of course they won’t be exactly accurate – but it provides a decently accurate context)

In 2015 – Wilson will occupy 4.92% of the cap.

In 2016, assuming a 154m cap, Wilson will occupy 12.04% of the cap.

In 2017, assuming a 166m cap, Wilson will occupy 11.32% of the cap.

In 2018, assuming a 175m cap, Wilson will occupy 12.40% of the cap.

In 2019, assuming a 190m cap, Wilson will occupy 12.21% of the cap.

Based on these numbers, it is reasonable to assume that Russell Wilson will never take up more than 13% of the Seahawks cap. That is INSANE. Many quarterbacks take up higher percentages of their team’s cap. Many fans/experts tend to argue that once a QB reaches 15% of the cap – their chances of winning a Super Bowl decrease dramatically. You can decide for yourself if that’s true.

Cash Flow

Disregard AAV – this is one of the best ways to evaluate, analyze, and compare contracts of all types of players. Over the Cap uses cash flow as one of it’s main tools for comparison. Cash Flow is essentially just how quickly and when the money is paid to the player. In an age of football where injuries are common and nothing is typically fully guaranteed 100%, players want to get as much money as possible – as soon as possible.

Let’s analyze Russell’s cash flow compared to several other quarterbacks and I think you’ll catch the hang of it.

(Side note: notice how Russell’s extension is four years whereas other QBs have typically 5 year extensions)

At Over the Cap, we use Year 0 as the year a player signs the extension and typically the first year of proration. Year 1 is the first year of the extension.

For example, in year 0, Wilson receives his 31.7m (31m in signing bonus and 700k base salary). Remember, signing bonus is paid out immediately to the player but prorated over five years (or the life of the contract if its shorter than 5) to help teams manage their cap. For year 0, you then subtract his original slated base salary – which would have been 1.5m. As a result, in year 0, Wilson makes $30,160,000 from the Seahawks. In year 0, Aaron Rodgers made $30,150,000 from the Packers. Ryan Tannehill made only $10,042,477.

In year 1, you add the player’s year 0 cash to his year 1 base salary and any bonuses (but RW has no bonuses) – so by year 1...RW’s running cash total will be $42,500,000. Tannehill will have made $19,382,477 by year one. Rodgers will have made $41,750,000 by year one.

Catching on? Based on these charts, its clear than Wilson has a far better deal than Tannehill. By the time of year 3, Wilson will have made $70,600,000 from the Seahawks. Tannehill will have made $54,882,477 from the Dolphins.

Compared to Rodgers, Wilson has a very comparable contract. One could argue that Wilson even has a better contract than Rodgers in terms of cash flow. RW starts off by making $10,000 more than Rodgers in year 0. RW leads him in cash flow from years 1-3 but Rodgers eventually cashes in more than RW by year 4.

In conclusions – RW has a far better contract than Tannehill. However, Rodgers and RW is a little trickier. It’s debated which one is better in terms of cash flow. Rodgers comes up with over 1m more than RW by year 4. On the other hand, RW leads him in those earlier years. This is why using AAV and new money APY are kind of weak when comparing contracts – although new money APY is more accurate. Sometimes players never see that money by the end of the deal due to injury, being cut, etc.

The players who get the most money up-front have the best player-friendly contracts. The players who have back-loaded contracts (without guarantees) typically have very team-friendly deals.

Full Guarantees vs. Total Guarantees

Guarantees are the most important part of a player’s contract. End of story. If a player gets hurt, is not performing to standard, etc.; he will not see most of the money in his contract.

It’s important to note the difference between full and total guarantees. There is much confusion between the two among NFL fans. There are three ways a player can be terminated: skill termination, salary cap termination, and injury termination. Full guarantees mean the players are protected against all three types of termination. Total guarantees mean a player is protected by one or a couple types of termination – typically injury which is the most common (but its never protection against all three).

When Russell Wilson signed his extension - he received a total guarantee of 61.542 million, per Over the Cap. His full guarantee at time of signing was 31.7 million. As discussed earlier, it’s important to note that RW has many rolling guarantees – his 2016 and 2017 and part of his 2018 base salaries don’t become fully guaranteed until the fifth day of the waiver period of the respective year.

In terms of full guarantees at time of signing, RW is only 11th among quarterbacks. This was a major win for the Seahawks. In terms of total guarantees, RW ranks first. Wilson barely eclipsed Suh for total guaranteed money. The other 30m in guarantees are for injury only in RW’s contract.

Ending Thoughts

Well, if you’ve made it this far, good job. I’m proud of you. I drank about 4 coffees writing this. My body hurts. My brain hurts.

In short, and you’ve heard this said many times, but this deal was truly a win-win for both sides. RW never takes up an obscenely large part of the Hawks’ salary cap; he got significant guarantees – but nothing that is crazy. The structure of the contract makes it very manageable for the Hawks. It’s kind of surprising – because everything we were hearing in the media suggested Wilson wanted to become highest paid and break many guarantee records. Now, he probably did want that – but the Hawks weren’t going to give that to him. The Seahawks won this negotiation. The Seahawks locked up their franchise quarterback, who is only improving, to a deal that doesn’t even come close to breaking the bank. Wilson did not come close to maximizing his market value...and from a club perspective.... I love it. God I love you, competent Seahawks management.

One more thing: nearly 100% of the numbers I pulled were from Over the Cap. I’m not just saying this because I do work for them...but Over the Cap is seriously the best in the business. You can visit their website here: http://www.overthecap.com/

They do a great job. Well...I have nothing else. Oh wait...this popped up on my twitter feed and I couldn’t not share it. I present to you the dumbest tweet of 2015:

Now, excuse me while I retreat to my tempur-pedic mattress for eternity. Wake me up when its football season.

Go Hawks.



