Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats warned that foreign nations probably would attempt to create convincing fake audio and video — known as "deepfakes" — to advance their causes. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images Cybersecurity Intelligence heads warn of more aggressive election meddling in 2020

Foreign adversaries are likely already planning to interfere in the 2020 U.S. election, the nation's top intelligence official warned on Tuesday.

In a worldwide threat assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats wrote that competitors such as Russia, China and Iran “probably already are looking to the 2020 U.S. elections as an opportunity to advance their interests.”


In his statement, he predicted that these countries "will use online influence operations to try to weaken democratic institutions, undermine U.S. alliances and partnerships and shape policy outcomes in the United States and elsewhere."

Furthermore, he said, they'll "refine their capabilities and add new tactics as they learn from each other’s experiences, suggesting the threat landscape could look very different in 2020 and future elections."

The prognosis comes roughly a month after Coats revealed Moscow attempted to interfere in last year's midterm elections, but failed to compromise the country's election systems. Tuesday’s assessment notes that “unidentified actors” attacked election infrastructure in 2018.

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The emphasis on the topic also shows that the clandestine community remains keenly aware of the threat following the massive, Kremlin-backed assault on the 2016 presidential election.

The assessment offered by Coats, based on input from the entire U.S. intelligence community, predicts Russian social media campaigns will focus on "aggravating" social and racial tensions and striking back at anti-Kremlin politicians. Moscow may also seek to spread disinformation, launch cyberattacks and manipulate data.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), a 2020 presidential contender, pressed Coats on whether the intelligence community had a written strategy for tackling social media influence campaigns

Coats repeatedly said the overall effort to counter such campaigns is a “fluid situation” and that he was not exactly sure if a written plan “would give us anything more,” predicting such a document would need to be “modified daily.”

A recurring theme during the hearing centered on how American adversaries, whether Russia, China or Iran, could more effectively use digital influence campaigns to advance their interests.

In his written assessment, Coats warned about countries creating convincing fake audio and video — known as "deepfakes," for instance. They may also use cyber means to "directly manipulate or disrupt election systems — such as by tampering with voter registration or disrupting the vote tallying process — either to alter data or to call into question our voting process."

Testifying before the committee, Coats, himself a former panel member, said election security remains a “top priority for the intelligence community” and that it is busy “incorporating lessons learned” ahead of the 2020 elections.

However, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) asked him on why committee members haven't seen the intelligence community’s assessment on interference in the midterms, noting lawmakers had only received an oral briefing on the examination.

Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) quickly interjected that he and Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), the panel’s top Democrat, had seen the assessment and would request it to be shown to their colleagues. "We will make every effort to open the aperture,” he said.

Appearing alongside Coats, FBI Director Chris Wray agreed that Russia would continue to use social media to sow discontent in U.S., adding the Kremlin is adapting its model and other countries are “taking a very interested eye.”

Wray said that social media influence campaigns are a “particularly vexing and challenging problem" for the bureau. Yet, he said, the FBI continues to work with government partners and tech companies to counter online disinformation and fake accounts.

Coats, likewise, pointed to “significant progress” with the private sector on the issue and is “encouraged” after visits to some of the tech firms.

Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) asked NSA Director Army Gen. Paul Nakasone if anything had changed since last year when he said nations such as Russia and China had not paid a price for nefarious digital activities.

Nakasone said he believes the U.S. showed "effectiveness" at keeping Russia from meddling in the November midterms. However, he said, “whether or not that spawns long-term behavior change, I think that’s still to be determined."