The referendum that propelled Britain towards exit from the European Union was called because David Cameron ran out of options for holding the Tories together. It would be a neat historical symmetry if the country voted on a reversal because Jeremy Corbyn faced the same problem with Labour.

A referendum on Brexit terms is not Labour policy. In March, Owen Smith was sacked as shadow Northern Ireland secretary for saying it should be. But nuance has crept on to the frontbench since then. “We’ve not ruled anything out,” John McDonnell said in July. “But our preference is a general election.”

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That preference flows from three calculations. First, the collision between Theresa May’s Brexit deal and parliament this autumn will be so gruesome that the prime minister will fall. Second, that her departure will somehow propel Corbyn into Downing Street. Third, that the Brexit process will as a result be magically detoxified. All peril comes from Tory rule and ends when Labour’s crack team rides into the breach. Each of those judgments are debatable; the last one is delusional.

Corbyn fought the 2017 election on a pro-Brexit manifesto, yet his campaign scooped up millions of disoriented remainers. Opposition strategists concluded that the pro-European vote was a subset of anti-Tory feeling, which was – in England – owned by Labour. They worried more about pro-leave voters needing reassurance that Brexit would not be undone.

A lot has happened since last June. The idea of a gentle separation from the continent has died. Brexiters are divided now only on the question of whether to minimise the pain or embrace it as a purgative procedure to fortify the nation’s soul. It is thus rational for anyone else to want annulment of the whole mismanaged enterprise on the menu. That option is especially popular among Labour members, whose pro-European ardour is stirred by every glimpse of Brexit’s ugly nationalist underbelly.

Corbyn’s allergy to discussion of a Brexit reversal once looked tactically astute. Now it looks shifty. It compounds the impression of leadership unmoored. The row over antisemitism that has consumed Labour this summer is a mess of complex genesis on the far left, but the situation is made worse by general stagnation. The noxious miasma grows denser over a party that can’t seem to move forward on any front. It doesn’t even have anything useful to say on the biggest issue facing the country.

This Euro-stasis is the expression of deadlocked forces that do not map on to pro- or anti-Corbyn faultlines. The alliance that wants to press on with Brexit unites the “old Labour” right, who fret about immigration control, with the “old Labour” left, which hates the EU’s legal framework for competition and free markets.

The rival coalition is a fragile compound of unrepentant Blairites, who focus on the economic folly of quitting the single market, and the younger radicals in Momentum, who see Brexit opening a portal to an “alt-right” hellscape where Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg perform endless Donald Trump tributes.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘Corbyn’s allergy to discussion of a Brexit reversal once looked tactically astute. Now it looks shifty.’ Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Labour’s pro-Europeans can’t agree on what should happen instead of Brexit, but a referendum defers that battle. It is also a policy ladder down which Corbyn might climb with his Eurosceptic dignity intact. He doesn’t have to come out for Brussels, only for democracy and trusting the people – notably, young people. According to a recent poll, support for staying in the EU is 79% among voters aged 18-24. Corbyn’s brand has been lit up by the energy of his youngest fans. Without them, he is in a darker place.

Pro-EU outriders in Momentum and anxious unions are nudging a referendum up Labour’s agenda. To help the lobbying effort, campaigners for the People’s Vote, the pro-plebiscite umbrella organisation, refrain from public criticism of Corbyn. No one anticipates a dramatic U-turn, but there is cautious optimism that the door to a policy shift, now barely ajar, will open a bit wider at this year’s annual conference.

The obstacles are time and dogmatic tribalism at the very top. Corbyn’s closest allies don’t trust anyone who hasn’t always been around, alongside Jeremy on the long march through the wilderness. (The ledger of loyalty goes back to the 1970s.) They mistrust the People’s Vote campaign because it features MPs who have denounced the Labour leader – the likes of Chuka Umunna and Chris Leslie. They don’t want to get behind anything that includes Tories, even pro-European dissidents such as Anna Soubry.

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Besides, many in Corbyn’s circle, including the leader himself, if his speeches are a reliable guide, are happy leaving the EU. The question is whether they would take Brexit at any cost. Perhaps the cost itself is the lure – the thrill of a cataclysm so vast that the Tories are disqualified from governing for a generation, revealing Corbynism as the only alternative. If so, there is more than accidental complicity between Labour and the Tory no-deal Brexiters. They share utopian arousal at the thought of revolutionary opportunities available in chaos.

In truth, there is no single motive behind Labour’s European policy, only a mess of conflicting impulses and overlapping factional rivalries. The leadership is relaxed about Brexit in principle; the membership hates what it means in practice. Meanwhile, the probability of any government getting a deal on terms superior to EU membership is zero. As the clock ticks down, Labour’s refusal to engage with the idea of reconsidering the whole thing, to say Brexit is a bad business, looks increasingly perverse and fanatical. Corbyn might not have the courage to call it one way or another. But he might soon see the advantage in daring to ask the question.

• Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist