When De'Andre Hunter hit the floor hard in the second half of the Clemson game, so did my stomach. When he got up, so did my stomach. When he missed the two free throws, I knew he was hurting. When he kept playing, I figured he shook it off.

Now I know his season never really got up off that floor. His career will, and after surgery and rehab he will come back strong. As much as it sucks for us to lose him for the NCAA Tournament, it sucks even more - way way more - for him. He has to miss it.

But the team moves on.

How? How does the team replace this loss and continue on toward its - our - dreams?

The ACC Tournament holds the clues. Digging into the numbers yields a startling observation. Take it out and brush the dirt clods and crumbs off of it, and it sparkles in the sunshine: The Hoos kind of won the ACC Tournament without him, and if they can win that one, they can certainly win the NCAA.

Against Louisville, UVA was +8 in lineups with Hunter, and +9 in lineups without him. The best lineup in that game was Jerome - Guy - Hall - Wilkins - Diakite, which outscored Louisville 11-0 in 19 possessions with a 1.10 OEff and of course 0.00 DEff. It was the third most oft-used lineup behind the starting lineup (32 PP +0), and Hall - Guy - Jerome - Hunter - Wilkins (22 PP +2).

Moreover, in that game, five other players had higher Successful Possessions Index numbers than Hunter. Kyle Guy was the leader with 26, then Jerome (21), Hall (20), Wilkins (16) and Diakite (15). Hunter made, literally, a sixth man contribution in his 20 minutes of action.

The Clemson game was a similar story. Dre played 20 minutes. Hunter lineups were -2 while lineups without him went +8. The best lineup was that same Jerome - Guy - Hall - Wilkins - Diakite, that was 24-9 in 32 possessions, with a 1.5 OEff versus 0.56 DEff - both sick numbers. Again five other players had higher SPI numbers than Hunter: Guy (21), Jerome (18), Diakite (17), Hall (16), and Salt (13).

In the Final, with Dre clearly hurting from his wrists, the Hoos were -2 in the 18 minutes with him on the floor and +10 without. In the Final, however, the best lineup was the starting lineup (the previous best lineup never appeared), which played 49 possessions and outscored the Heels 40-27. Interestingly, the offense was better than the defense (1.6 OEff to 1.13 DEff). Four players had higher SPI than Hunter - Hall (18), Guy and Jerome (17), Wilkins (16) - and Salt matched his 13 SPI.

Step back and look at the ACC season as a whole (regular and tournament) and we see that two of the three most often-used lineups did not feature De'Andre. The starting lineup played by far the most possessions of any lineup (603 of 2446 total compared to 380 for the next) and posted a 0.22 net efficiency. To look at it another way, on a per-game basis the starting lineup outscored ACC opponents 66-53. The Diakite lineup from above was the third most used lineup in ACC play (191 PP) and had a shocking 0.43 efficiency advantage.

All of the above shows that against NCAA Tournament level competition, the starting lineup plus Diakite is more than capable of doing the bulk of the work without Hunter. Where the loss will be felt is in special situations and on the margins. How well the Hoos cope in those areas will determine how deep they can go and whether they can win it all. The ACC Final should make us feel better, because the Hoos most likely still beat the #3 seeded Tar Heels without Dre in the lineup at all.

In general, we are likely to see almost exclusively a 7-man rotation for the rest of the season, with Diakite the post sub and Nigel Johnson the perimeter sub. The team will run almost exclusively the Sides offense, although with Johnson on the floor we might still see four-man motion with some spread looks. It would be wise, as spreading the floor and letting Johnson operate from the point with the ball in his hands is by far the best way to use him. Ideally, however, the starting perimeter is going to play the bulk of the minutes with two of the three bigs and run Sides with the ruthless effectiveness it did in the ACC Tournament.

Specific Concerns

Hunter played the vast majority of his ACC possessions in the post rotation. His loss directly impacts that rotation and only indirectly affects the perimeter rotation. The main question is:

What to do when Wilkins needs to sit?

For the whole season so far, the answer was "put in Hunter." The post pairing of Salt and Diakite played a grand total of 46 possessions in ACC play and was offensively hideous but defensively competent. Against a team with two bigs, like Arizona, it should be fine for a few minutes. Against a perimeter-oriented team, Coach Tony Bennett will probably not want to put that pairing in action. This transitions into the first special situation:

Going Small

What to do when going small makes sense? For the whole season so far, the answer was "put in Hunter." Dre has been an excellent wing four. While he is not yet a polished PacklineTM post defender and makes a lot of mistakes, the offensive mismatch he presents the other team more than makes up for it - especially when paired with Wilkins, who simply erases most mistakes.

Without the easy answer, it becomes more difficult. The main answer will probably be, "don't." Bennett is going to try to go with a traditional two-big set most of the time. Against Carolina, the traditional two-big starting lineup did extremely well, and the Heels rarely play two classic bigs at the same time this year. For most of the game, Theo Pinson and Cam Johnson were the forwards, and the starting lineup did surprisingly well. The trouble will come if all of the frontcourt players are good three-point shooters. The one real problem UVA had was chasing Maye through screens. While the defense did struggle to contain the Heels, the offense was brutally effective, with Guy and Jerome showing a veteran mastery of the Sides reads.

But there will be times when going small is the answer, and what then? Devon Hall played the small 4 position last season and did a good job. He's not as long as Hunter and may not create the offensive mismatch - although that is debatable given Hall's offensive performance this year - but he is stronger and more positionally sound. The problem here comes in the backcourt, where most lineups with Nigel Johnson have performed poorly. Unless done right, a small lineup is going to fall apart.

If UVA attempts to go small with Hall at the four and Johnson in the game, and run Sides, the offense is going to sink into the floor like mastodons in a tar pit. Forget it. On defense, Johnson has really struggled with the communication and decisions in the switching defense. He's wired to stick with his man, so that has tactical implications on defense.

Using Marco Anthony is an option here, but Marco also has defensive assignment confusions at times. He does fit better into Sides than does Johnson.

If UVA needs to play the bulk of a game with a small lineup, it's going to be an ugly struggle, because the numbers indicate that Johnson needs to have Wilkins and Hall on the floor with him, and that Johnson and Jerome coexist with difficulty. Add Guy and the numbers are really bad. Small lineup situations would seem to specifically require one particular lineup: Johnson, Guy, Jerome, Hall and Wilkins. Run the 4-man motion with Johnson on the ball, and do less switching on defense. Drive the ball.

Zone Offense

What to do when teams go to a zone?

"Put Hunter in the middle." That seems the answer that worked, but it was not the only answer.

Against Duke, Hunter came into the second half at 14:22 and played until he was hurt at the 5:00 mark. The Hoos scored 16 points in those 9 minutes. After he went out, discounting the two late free throws, the Hoos scored 8 points in 5 minutes. The scoring rate didn't change.

In the second Syracuse game, Wilkins hit two jumpers from the middle of the zone, with the adjustment clearly having been made that he should simply turn and shoot when he caught it in there. Turning and shooting without hesitation led to a better stroke.

These anecdotes were chosen to illustrate that the Hoos were successful against zones in cases without Hunter. The answer is not so much in personnel as in tactics. We cannot simply park someone in the middle of the zone and pass it in and out. When teams zoned us traditionally, we could do that, because when Wilkins caught the ball in the middle the zone would react to him and he could kick it out to a three-point shooter. But teams don't zone that way now. They stay out on the perimeter and invite the player in the middle to take the shot.

The Hoos will probably look to attack the zone in two ways: flash multiple players through the high post area in series, either from the baseline or the wing; and with the dribble. Attacking the zone with the dribble was how Virginia had success against Duke - with or without Hunter. Look for Wilkins to screen the top defenders. If the center is going to stay on the baseline the way teams have been doing, screening a guard will create openings for downhill dribble penetration. Pass to the wing, back screen the strong side defender, then the weak side wing cuts to the middle for a pass and dives into the lane. Or the wing with the ball can immediately put it on the deck and drive around the screen while the weak side wing sets up for a kickout. Also watch for the Hoos to pass the ball down to the baseline and run men into the middle of the zone from top of the key looking for a low-high pass.

In summary, rather than a paradigm that passes the ball into the middle for the man there to read and make a play, look for the Hoos to penetrate the zone with either dribblers or cutters going toward the rim and shooting on the move. Jerome, Guy, Johnson, Hall all have deadly floaters (as do I, but that's a different matter), so expect to see players using those on the move instead of the more traditional turnaround jumper.

Minutes Distribution

We all like to see players get rest. But top players routinely log 35+ minutes in games and remain effective. We are likely to see Jerome, Guy and Hall all play more than 35 minutes of every game the rest of the way. We're going to see a lot of walking it up. Wilkins is going to be north of 30.

Ideally, we will be able to play big and use a three-man post rotation for all 40 each game. The key to making that work against smaller teams will be getting some post offense. Diakite and Salt will need to take heart in their performances in the ACC Tournament and look to up their post attempts. The guards will need to put a focus on feeding the post. Use the size advantage on offense to force the opponent to adjust and neutralize his quickness advantage on the other end. If we can do that, we can stay big in all games and Diakite and Salt then split the other 45-50 post minutes. Johnson spells each of the guards - with Wilkins on the floor. Using care to have Wilkins sit when the three starting guards are on the floor should keep efficiency sufficiently high.

Then all we need to worry about is --

Foul Trouble

What to do when there is foul trouble, particularly on the front line?

Don't get into foul trouble.

That's the only good answer. Diakite and Salt are going to have to be aware of their hands. Diakite needs to cut out the foolish fouls and late hedges. Keep hands off and knees out from under post players. Foul trouble in the bigs is going to require going small and we've already seen how less than ideal that option is.

Jay Huff? Sure, use Huff and play a zone. Stick him in the middle of a 2-3 zone like Duke's. Not going to happen?

This, right here, is the big vulnerability and the way opponents will probably try to exploit the Hoos. A heavy dose of drive the ball at the big men. The only real answer is "be smart."

Finishing Games

Hunter has been part of the late game package for obvious reasons. Someone will have to take his place there. Nigel Johnson is a poor free throw shooter and Mamadi Diakite is untested and still inexperienced. He is a good free throw shooter, however. I suspect we'll see more of Johnson than Diakite because of the speed, given how hard it is for UVA to inbounds the ball against pressure. But Mamadi might be the answer because of his length. He could be used as a stationary pass receiver or an escape valve going long.

Conclusion

Overall, the Hoos should be fine. The core four of Jerome, Guy, Hall and Wilkins will all see more minutes with an effort to minimize the amount of time spent without all of them together. I will be shocked if we ever see more than one of those off the floor at the same time. As long as those four plus Diakite or Salt can play, the Hoos should be plus. Those two lineup variants were dominant in ACC play. As long as the Hoos can minimize the marginal situations and handle the special situations, they should still be cutting down the nets on April 2.