Last week we examined the Arizona Senate, today we return to the Grand Canyon State to look at their lower chamber. Republicans enter the fall elections with a 35-25 majority in the chamber, putting Dems within striking distance of taking their own majority. Before we dive in, I do want to note that the AZ House has multi-member districts. Each House district is just the Senate district, but voters elect two representatives. All the candidates are on the same ballot, with each party getting to put up to two candidates on the ballot, and voters then get to vote for 2. This often leads to tight races, with winning candidates getting in the 35% range. As a result, we’re going to format this write-up a little differently. I’m going to highlight specific districts in numerical order and talk about the dynamics of each one and then say the rating at the end of the summary.

6th District: Open (Barton) — R, Bob Thorpe — R

One of the top Democratic flip opportunities in the State Senate, this district also presents Democrats with an opportunity to gain a seat in the State House. With one of the seats open, this race is a tossup , and Democrats are in a good position to take advantage with some strong candidates. They have Holbrook Mayor Bobby Tyler and retired Army Colonel Felicia French in the race, while Republicans will likely counter with the incumbent Thorpe and either Stuart McDaniel, Chairman of the Flagstaff Air Commission, or Walt Blackman, Army veteran. Democrats need to gain one seat here to be on track for the majority.

8th District: David Cook — R, TJ Shope — R

With a pair of incumbents and an R+8 PVI, HD-8 isn’t the most obvious pickup opportunity. It was a Trump +14 seat, so it will be a stretch for Dems, but they have a good candidate. Carmen Casillas is back for a rematch after coming up 4.5% short in 2016 and she hopes that a better national environment can put her over the top. Both Cook and Shope are well funded and Dems have a few nominal candidates also in the race. This is a Tilt R type race, somewhere in between Lean R and Tossup, but I’ll leave it at tossup .

10th District: Kirsten Engel — D, Todd Clodfelter — R

This is the best opportunity for Dems to gain a seat, a D+3 suburban seat that Clinton won by double digits. Incumbent Republican Todd Clodfelter got a seat in the legislature by about 0.5% in 2016, so he’s in no way a secure incumbent. Furthermore, he’s earned a reputation as a conservative legislator, which doesn’t help him in this kind of a district. Dems have a few candidates seeking to be the second name on the ballot, while Republicans just have Clodfelter. I rate this as Lean D , a favored Democratic pickup.

11th District: Mark Finchem — R, Open (Leach) — R

This is an outside opportunity for Democrats, an R+10 district that will not be an easy flip, but they do have an interesting candidate, combined with an open seat. In 2016, Dems had just one candidate here and came up 5% short. In 2014, veteran Holly Lyon came up 7% short, so Team Blue has been close but hasn’t been able to break through. That could change in 2018, as Lyon runs again and has over $70,000 in the bank, by far the fundraising leader. There are some other Democrats in the race, but Lyon looks like the best shot to steal one of the two seats here. The partisan lean makes me rate it Lean R , but it wouldn’t shock me if Lyon wins.

17th District: Jeff Weninger — R, Open (Mesnard) — R

Another opportunity for Democrats to get a seat is the 17th district, where an open seat creates the chance. Democrats are running Jennifer Pawlik, their 2016 candidate as their only candidate, since she was just under 3% away from getting one of the two slots that year. With no incumbent, she’s hoping this is her year. Nora Ellen, a member of the Chandler City Council is likely to be the other Republican candidate alongside Weninger, and she will be a legit test with a lot of money in hand, but Pawlik is probably a tiny favorite, given the R+6 PVI of the district. I rate this as a tossup .

18th District: Denise Epstein — D, Jill Norgaard — R

Another great chance for a Dem pickup is in this D+1 district that was a Romney → Clinton seat. In 2016, it split its State House delegation and Democrats are trying to change that. The frontrunner to try and eclipse the incumbent R Norgaard is Jennifer Jermaine, a local nonprofit leader. Norgaard is well funded and won’t be easy to beat but with the winds at the backs of Team Blue, this is a tossup .

20th District: Anthony Kern — R, Open (Boyer) — R

This is an R+7 district with a pair of GOP-held seats, one left open in 2018. Trump won this district by 8 in 2016, so it could very easily be in play this fall. The top option for Democrats is probably Chris Gilfillan, who ran in 2016 and who was within 4 points of taking one of the slots. Republicans will counter Shawna Bolick, who is well funded and ran for the State House in a different district (HD-28) back in 2014. Dems have an outside shot but don’t expect a pickup, so I rate it Lean R .

28th District: Kelli Butler — D, Maria Syms — R

Finally we have the 28th District, an R+2 Clinton district where Democrats are trying to unify the State House delegation. Dems didn’t even run a second candidate here in 2016, but they are giving it a shot in 2018 with Aaron Lieberman, a founder of the national nonprofit Jumpstart. Lieberman seems to be a very legitimate candidate, the type who could KO Syms and give Democrats a pickup, so this seat is a tossup.

The Path to a Democratic Majority

So, let’s distill down the path here. Democrats need to get 6 seats for the outright majority. The most obvious one is to start by unifying split delegations in Hillary-won seats, 10, 18, and 28. That would be +3, or halfway there. Having Jennifer Pawlik flip a seat in the 17th brings the total to 4. To find the last two, a combination of one each from the 6th and 8th, both unified R delegations, is probably the easiest path to the +6.

Bottom Line

The multi-member district part makes this a confusing chamber to explain but here’s the basic fact: this is very much up for grabs, perhaps moreso than the Arizona Senate. If a blue wave crashes hard in Arizona, don’t be surprised if this chamber flips. Still, Republicans are slightly favored to keep the majority, but I’d call it a tossup.

Chamber Rating: Tossup

Estimate if election were held today: D+2 to D+7