The Higgs government's botched attempt at health-care reforms has made an already bad situation even worse for the Progressive Conservatives in francophone and northern New Brunswick.

Some PC members have quit the party, a former cabinet minister has condemned the changes, and the party's president says grassroots members are apprehensive with a possible election looming.

"What I've heard as party president is that it was launched very poorly, with a lot of unanswered questions as to what was going to happen next," said Claude Williams, the francophone former MLA for Kent South and a one-time minister in two PC governments.

"A lot of people are on their guard to see if it's going to come back or not," said Williams.

"Everywhere I go, people talk to me about it, and I've heard the same thing from the party also."

The reforms, which included the nighttime closure of six small-hospital emergency departments, triggered anger in affected communities both anglophone and francophone.

But the reaction has been strongest among francophones, many of whom were already unsure whether Premier Blaine Higgs was sensitive to their concerns.

"This is a government decision for them to sell to New Brunswickers," said Williams, a former minister in the Alward and Lord governments who became party president last fall. "The party [members] in some areas, especially up north, they're concerned."

Internal strife

The reforms prompted the resignation of the only francophone member of the PC cabinet and caucus, Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou MLA Robert Gauvin.

Long-time PC supporter Alban Duguay of Shippagan said while he will remain a party member, he supports Gauvin's resignation and hopes Higgs will lose his seat in the next election and be replaced as leader.

Meanwhile, the entire executive of the PC riding association in the riding of Caraquet resigned last Friday to show their support for the hospital there.

"Rural areas appear to have been forgotten by departmental civil servants and by the Higgs government," said Gilles Savoie, who was president of the association until he quit and who believes the cancellation of the reforms on Feb. 16 will only be temporary.

Former finance minister and former interim party leader Jeannot Volpé also criticized the reform plan and said alternatives exist, including a proposal submitted by his brother, Rino Volpé, when he was CEO of the Vitalité health authority.

Gilles Savoie was the president of the PC riding association in the riding of Caraquet until he quit and who believes the cancellation of the reforms on Feb. 16 will only be temporary. (Alix Villeneuve/Radio-Canada)

It would have spared services and instead slashed wasteful layers of administration at Horizon health hospitals in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton — changes "that could create a reaction" and that the Higgs PCs wanted to avoid, Jeannot Volpé said.

By opting to target small hospitals instead, the party has put itself in a dire situation with a possible election campaign within weeks, Volpé said.

PC supporters he knows in the Madawaska area already "don't feel the party is representing northern New Brunswick anymore," Volpe said.

"People are saying, 'I might have been interested in running but now, no, there's no interest, because 'how can I convince people to vote for me with what's going on?'"

Williams agreed the last two weeks will make it difficult to recruit PC candidates. "Definitely in some areas, it's going to be a challenge. … There's no question about that."

As party president, Williams must prepare the PC machine for an election if the government's budget is voted down March 20.

But he hedged when asked if he's confident Higgs understands francophone communities and is able to handle their reaction.

"That's a good question," he said. "That's a question to ask him.

"The premier has been an MLA, he's been minister of finance, so he's had a chance to crisscross the province on many occasions. He must be very well-briefed on the situation. So that's a question for the premier."

Jeannot Volpé, a former interm leader of the P.C.'s, said supporters he knows in the Madawaska area already "don't feel the party is representing northern New Brunswick anymore." (Kassandra Nadeau/Radio-Canada)

On the day Gauvin resigned, Higgs said he has made an effort to understand the concern of francophone and northern areas.

"Have I treated any part of this province differently than another? No, I have not," Higgs said.

"Have I been different than past governments, who maybe have bought their way to one solution over another? Likely, but I've done that all over the province. That has not been unique to the north or unique to the south."

Difficult election ahead

Higgs went into the 2018 election with two handicaps: his involvement more than three decades ago with the Confederation of Regions party, which opposed official bilingualism, and his own inability to communicate well in French.

Gauvin's narrow victory in Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou, by just 99 votes, gave the PCs a one-seat edge over the incumbent Liberals and allowed them to eventually win the confidence of the legislature and form a fragile minority government.

But University of Moncton political scientist Roger Ouellette says the PCs will be in an even more difficult position now.

University of Moncton political scientist Roger Ouellette says given 16 out of 49 ridings are majority francophone, and another five have at least 20 percent francophone populations, the Tories will enter a campaign with a serious handicap. (Andrew Vaughan/Canadian Press)

Ouellette says the health reform debate is more about rural-urban divisions than English-French or north-south splits. He pointed out that Gauvin attended a rally in Sussex last week to support the local hospital there.

But he says Gauvin's decision to quit — unlike Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins PC MLA Bruce Northrup, who chose to remain a PC — signalled to francophones the party wasn't sympathetic to their concerns.

Given 16 out of 49 ridings are majority francophone, and another five have at least 20 percent francophone populations, the Tories will enter a campaign with a serious handicap, Ouellette said.

"The party can forget about winning a majority in the next election," he said.