David Cameron is preparing to take the biggest gamble of his premiership by staging a parliamentary vote on British military action against Isis in Syria this week – despite deep uncertainty over how many Labour MPs will back him and fears among Syrian citizens about loss of civilian lives.

As anti-war protesters gathered outside Downing Street and at other rallies across the country, the prime minister made clear it was his firm intention to press ahead with the vote, likely to be on Wednesday, even though Labour sources say they have no clear idea how much backing he will get.

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Fears about the dangers of a bombing campaign were also expressed by recent exiles from the Syrian city of Raqqa, which is held by Isis. Refugees interviewed by the Observer said Isis is keeping civilians as “human shields” and warned about loss of innocent life if a bombing campaign goes wrong.

Speaking at the Commonwealth heads of government conference in Malta, Cameron appealed directly to the many undecided MPs on Labour benches, and a handful of Conservative doubters, for support. The SNP and Lib Dems both say they are not convinced.

“I hope that, when the choice comes, people will indicate that this is the right thing for Britain to do. It is, and we should do it,” Cameron said.

But with a working majority of just 16 in the Commons, senior Labour sources said Cameron could not be assured of a comfortable win, as most MPs on their side remained undecided. With Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn opposed to military action, the mood was uncertain.

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One senior Labour figure said: “We honestly cannot say what the numbers are. I think Cameron will get it through, maybe narrowly, but a very large number on our side have not made up their minds. It depends whether something happens that could swing it – and that could be either way.”



In a sign of an imminent Commons vote it is understood that No 10 has drawn up a draft motion to extend the UK airstrikes to Syria. The motion, which is still being worked on, is believed to refer to the need to use military action to degrade Isis and reduce its threat, while at the same time pursuing a clear political process to bring stability to the region. It will also mention the need for immediate humanitarian support and longer-term stabilisation.

In a clear bid to win round wavering Labour MPs, it is expected to stress the importance of the UN security council resolution 2249, passed nine days ago, which calls on states to take “all necessary measures” to prevent terrorist acts by Isis and to “eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria”. It is also expected to rule out UK ground combat troops being deployed and will say UK capabilities mean that the risk of civilian casualties will be minimised.

Tory whips – who have been in contact with their Labour counterparts – now believe they could expect the support of some 80 Labour MPs. Foreign secretary Philip Hammond and defence secretary Michael Fallon spent much of Saturday trying to win round Labour waverers.

Corbyn is under pressure to allow a free vote. A decision is expected at the shadow cabinet meeting on Monday.

Cameron added: “I’m not responsible for what is happening in the Labour party. All I would say is, whatever party it is, look at the arguments, listen to the arguments put forward before thinking about voting on this issue because I think there is a compelling case that taking military action alongside our allies can help to address the threat from Isis. I think the right approach is to have a strategy that includes all the necessary elements.”

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Cameron went on to criticise former London mayor and Corbyn ally Ken Livingstone, now the co-convener of Labour’s defence review, for disparaging remarks he made about British troops. Arguing that bombing could not work without boots on the ground, the former London mayor said on LBC radio: “We cannot put British troops on the ground because they are too discredited after Iraq and Afghanistan. But we should look to countries like China. China would jump at the opportunity to get involved because it would bring them on to the global stage. They have got millions of troops.”

Livingstone also suggested that Labour’s ruling NEC – on which he sits – should have a role in deciding the parliamentary party’s position on support for airstrikes, a move that would enrage MPs and Corbyn’s shadow cabinet. “That would be a case for Labour’s National Executive, which is the body that oversees the party, not the PLP,” Livingstone said.

Cameron told reporters: “I have the highest possible regard for British armed services. I know as prime minister their bravery, their courage, their professionalism. The person who frankly seems to be letting himself down right now is Ken Livingstone with the remarks that he makes. We should not question the brilliance of our forces; they prove that time and again and will go on proving it.”

Corbyn ally Diane Abbott, addressing anti-war protesters, said Cameron had been contacting Labour MPs to persuade them to vote for the airstrikes.

The shadow international development secretary said: “David Cameron has not made the case for bombing Syria. At this point, I do not believe that bombing Syria will make it safe, any more than bombing Iraq made Iraq safe, bombing Afghanistan made Afghanistan safe and bombing Libya made Libya safe.”

Writing in the Observer, former minister and Tory leadership contender David Davis also says Cameron has not made a sufficient case for war.