Extreme weather damage to the global barley crop will mean price spikes and supply problems, according to new research

Trouble is brewing for the world’s beer drinkers, with climate change set to cause “dramatic” price spikes and supply shortages, according to new research.

Extreme heatwaves and droughts will increasingly damage the global barley crop, meaning a common ingredient of the world’s favourite alcoholic beverage will become scarcer. Key brewing nations are forecast to be among the worst hit, including Belgium, the Czech Republic and Ireland.

The researchers said that compared with life-threatening impacts of global warming such as the floods and storms faced by millions, a beer shortage may seem relatively unimportant. But they said it would affect the quality of life of many people.

“There is little doubt that for millions of people around the world, the climate impacts on beer availability and price will add insult to injury,” said Prof Dabo Guan at the University of East Anglia, one of the research team. “There is something fundamental in the cross-cultural appreciation of beer.

“If you still want to still have a couple of pints of beer while you watch the football, then climate change [action] is the only way out. This is the key message.”

The research, published in the journal Nature Plants, used climate models to examine the impact of extreme weather on barley yields over the next 80 years. The team then used economic models to estimate the impact on beer supply and price in different nations.

If carbon emissions are not curbed, the analysis found that beer consumption will fall by about a third in Ireland, Belgium and the Czech Republic. In the UK, a quarter fewer pints would be sunk, with 14% fewer bottles being opened in the US.

In China, now the world’s biggest beer consumer, consumption is forecast to fall by 9%. In Australia, just 7% fewer cold ones would be downed, partly because it is one of few places where climate change may make barley growing easier in some regions. Globally, the cut would be 16%.

Even in the best-case climate scenario, with rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gases, beers drunk in Ireland, Belgium and the Czech Republic would fall between 9% and 13%, with similar drops in Canada and Germany.

Looking at the impact on price, the research found that Poland’s beer drinkers would be hardest hit in the worst-case scenario, with the cost rising almost fivefold. In Ireland, Belgium and the Czech Republic, prices would double. These nations would be most affected because they brew and drink a lot of beer and import most of their brewing barley.

Only about a sixth of the world barley harvest is used for beer – most is fed to livestock. But the researchers found that the economics of the market mean hungry animals are prioritised when the grain is in short supply. This means disproportionately large decreases in barley for brewing, “ultimately resulting in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption and increases in beer prices”.

“Future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world,” said Prof Steven Davis, at the University of California, Irvine, and one of the research team.

Guan said uncertainties and assumptions made in the study mean the price rises and supply shortages calculated are not intended to be precise predictions but to illustrate the impact of climate change. He said it is clear from the research that global warming will make beer more expensive and less available.

Guan suggested beer price spikes and shortages might even affect social stability, noting that the prohibition era in the US saw organised crime supplying illicit liquor.

Using other grains such as wheat to brew is unlikely to be an option, as all crops will suffer from extreme weather, said Guan. Nor will what he calls other “luxury essentials” be an alternative source of pleasure: “All these are going to be more expensive – chocolate, coffee and tea – all those crops are going to be suffering.”

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Prof Richard Ellis at the University of Reading, who was not involved in the research, said: “For beer drinkers, this [research] converts an abstract concept of the future efficiency of cereal production by farmers into the more real future price of beer.”

But he said the study might underestimate the consequences of future climate change on barley yields, given significant recent drops in UK yields after only modest temperature rises. He also said the taste of beer could be affected by possible climate change impacts on hop production.

One scientist who reviewed the new research before publication told Guan: “I hope Donald Trump loves beer. If he does he may return the US to the Paris agreement.” This, however, may be a forlorn hope: Trump claims to be teetotal.