Abstract

This paper reviews post-war growth in the UK and its European peer group and considers the implications of economic integration through EU membership. It concludes that the EU has strongly reduced trade costs and had positive impacts on income levels but has not raised trend growth rates. Moreover, domestic supply-side policies have been much more important for long-run growth performance. The economic benefits of EU membership for the UK have far exceeded the costs of budgetary transfers and regulation. Brexit will probably reduce UK GDP without removing significant constraints on policy that might deliver faster growth.