As I write this on Friday, the trading day in the U.S. is about half done. The markets have been roiled by the panic-selloff response to the unexpected affirmation of the desire to leave the EU expressed by the results of the British referendum.

Although having initially gone deeply negative with most other asset classes, the stocks of the government contractors have all rebounded from their lows, with some actually being positive on the day.

Three of the seven largest and principal government contractors made only slight moves Friday: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTN) and Northrop Grumman (NOC). Of the remaining four, only Boeing (BA) was down more than either the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 Index. (Lockheed Martin is part of TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.)

As I write on Friday, the CME Fed Fund futures prices have taken an abrupt turn. The expected chance of a rate increase in July has been reduced from 12% to 0%, and more importantly the chance of the Fed reversing course and adding stimulus by way of a rate cut has moved from 0% to 5%.

The U.S. dollar price of the two largest crypto-currencies, bitcoin and Ethereum, are up 14% and 10%, respectively.

Gold is up about 4%, after having been up 8% earlier in the day.

At this writing, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 17 basis points to 1.57%, but had fallen as low as 1.4%, almost to its record low, overnight.

There are many more observations that could be made, but the totality of those referenced above indicates that beyond simply responding to the results of the British referendum, traders are becoming increasingly concerned about economic activity in the U.S. They are shifting not only toward increased expectations of a reversal of the trend toward monetary tightening, but an increased possibility of direct economic intervention by way of fiscal stimulus.

Interestingly, though, the stocks of the infrastructure companies were down more than the Dow industrials and the S&P 500. The most prominent among them are Jacobs Engineering (JEC), Fluor (FLR) and Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), which closed down 6.4%, 7.9% and 7.5%, respectively.

The dichotomy between the performance of the government contractors and the infrastructure companies Friday indicates that, contrary to current meme that a Brexit implies a Trump election, traders are not convinced of such yet.

I discussed the prospects for both groups of stocks concerning the outcome of the election in the two-part column, "Implications of a Trump Presidency," in February.

Friday's performance indicates traders are moving in that direction, however, and expressing a belief that the prospects for some form of fiscal stimulus in the U.S. is increasing.

In order for that to be extended into real expectations of a Trump election in November, three other current issues must grow in severity.

First, the results of the Brexit vote must be reflected in the growth of similar concerns and feelings by citizens of Italy, Spain and France, and that economic activity there continues to underperform.

Second, the stagnation in economic activity and job creation in the U.S. must not only continue, but get worse, between now and the elections.

Third, the legal issues concerning the handling of emails by Hillary Clinton must become a substantive part of public discussions by elected officials and the media again, as it was last summer.

All three of these trends are ongoing and I think that will continue.

If they do, I expect that the infrastructure stocks will rebound from the selloff and regain the positive momentum they've been building this year.

The reason this is important for a Trump vs. Clinton election is that in times of crisis, if the crisis is perceived to be temporary, people will opt for status quo.

If the crisis is perceived to be of a longer duration or indicative of a permanent trend, or the status-quo option is determined not to be such, people are motivated to seek change.

Right now, Clinton is perceived as the status quo and Trump as the change element.

All of the above concerns markets, economies and politics. There is one last issue, though, that could, and likely would, cause people to opt for change regardless of the status of the issues discussed above.

That is terrorism.

If there are any other large-scale terrorist events anywhere in the world that are perceived to be religious in nature, or part of a growing continuum of previous events, it is likely that voters will opt for change in November.