The draft is upon us! While this year’s draft will be a little different, perhaps we can achieve a better outcome in our drafts. Running Back Vision (RBV) is here to help us value running backs from a different perspective. For all positions, ‘fit’ is paramount to reach a prospects ceiling, and RBV can give dynasty players a way to look at RBs and their fit.

As you probably heard in the video, we watched 1300+ carries across 18 different RB prospects. We charted the consistency of their vision and burst, while tracking the run blocking scheme and offensive line performance. While this system has it’s own overall score, NerdScore is a more comprehensive look at the total running back. Running Back Vision provides you with an RBV Score for each prospect within each of three run-blocking schemes: Inside Zone, Outside Zone, and Gap blocking schemes.

‘Fit’ is extremely important to success. Knowing where a prospect fits best gives us a ‘leg up’ as the NFL draft unfolds. Scores in these schemes may help us make sense of surprise selections in the draft.

RBV Terms

RBV Score – A score representing a prospect’s value adjusting for offensive line performance and defensive competition

– A score representing a prospect’s value adjusting for offensive line performance and defensive competition Success – A results based metric grading the outcome of the run based on down and distance

– A results based metric grading the outcome of the run based on down and distance Vision – A measure of vision consistency (not quality) of vision

– A measure of vision consistency (not quality) of vision Burst – A measure of how consistently a prospect took advantage of vision with burst

– A measure of how consistently a prospect took advantage of vision with burst OLine – A measure offensive line performance

RBV Score Data

NFL running games will feature some combination of Zone and Gap play. Though, most teams will favor one of the schemes mentioned above over the others. These tendencies, when paired with RBV data, can identify scheme fits based on where our prospects succeed.

Zone Blocking Scheme

Starting with Inside Zone, we can see some of the standouts immediately. Be sure to take a look at the ‘OLine – IZ’ score to get a feeling of what the prospect had to deal with in their 2019 season. A score of ‘0’ is indicative of neutral offensive line play, meaning, on average, they neither hurt nor helped the runner. Negative scores indicate a more frequent occurrence of blown blocks or re-establishing the line of scrimmage by defensive line. A more positive number shows a line that got more frequent positive push or open lanes for our prospect.

Running Back Vision - Inside Zone

Player RBV Score-IZ Success-IZ Vision-IZ Burst-IZ OLine-IZ Reps-IZ Jonathan Taylor 80.02 56.67 83.33 60 20 30 Salvon Ahmed 78.14 60.34 100 44.83 37.93 29 LeVante Bellamy 77.71 65.38 76.92 70 0 13 JK Dobbins 74.30 54.9 70.59 63.89 47.06 51 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 68.80 48.98 73.47 52.78 46.94 49 AJ Dillon 68.28 50 84 52.38 40 25 DeAndre Swift 66.74 43.55 80.65 48 16.13 31 Zack Moss 65.70 40.32 54.84 70.59 32.26 31 J.J Taylor 65.14 43.55 67.74 61.9 29.03 31 Lamical Perine 63.13 36.11 72.22 38.46 -22.22 18 Eno Benjamin 62.82 36.25 72.5 37.93 7.5 40 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 62.71 25 63.33 73.68 30 30 Cam Akers 62.00 37.5 72.5 58.62 12.5 40 Darrynton Evans 60.26 43.48 73.91 41.18 8.7 23 Michael Warren II 58.83 42.68 70.73 34.48 9.76 41 Anthony McFarland, Jr. 58.55 37.5 58.33 42.86 25 12 Joshua Kelley 58.44 31.25 60 50 0 40

When we look at these data sets, it is important to understand the sample size evaluated within each scheme. A minimum of 15 reps is a good point of reference, but still, pay attention to those that are close to this bar in sample size. A score associated with a sample size of 10 or less should be taken with a serious grain of salt.

Running Back Vision - Outside Zone

Player RBV Score-OZ Success-OZ Vision-OZ Burst-OZ OLine-OZ Reps-OZ Clyde Edwards-Helaire 95.59 67.65 88.24 80 41.18 17 Joshua Kelley 93.18 65 90 66.67 0 10 JK Dobbins 91.36 68.97 82.76 75 58.62 29 Jonathan Taylor 85.63 50 66.67 83.33 11.11 9 Zack Moss 84.59 58.82 58.82 90 11.76 34 DeAndre Swift 84.38 58.82 91.18 61.29 26.47 17 Anthony McFarland, Jr. 80.85 66.67 74.07 65 3.7 27 LeVante Bellamy 74.53 57.69 53.85 100 -15.38 13 Salvon Ahmed 72.30 45.24 66.67 71.43 14.29 21 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 72.22 35.71 78.57 81.82 21.43 14 Lamical Perine 70.47 35 90 44.44 -30 10 Cam Akers 68.64 43.48 78.26 72.22 -26.09 23 Eno Benjamin 66.11 44.12 82.35 50 -11.76 17 Michael Warren II 63.93 45.24 66.67 64.29 28.57 21 Darrynton Evans 61.73 38.89 85.19 69.57 33.33 27 J.J Taylor 60.61 40.62 62.5 50 37.5 16 AJ Dillon 60.49 37.5 62.5 50 12.5 16

Gap Blocking Scheme

As we transition to the Gap scheme data set, we start to see some other prospects rise to the top. This highlights the difference in mental processing requirements from Zone to Gap blocking. It is arguably harder to read Zone blocking because it is very dynamic by nature. Where as Gap blocking is often a simpler read.

Running Back Vision - Gap

Player RBV Score-Gap Success-Gap Vision-Gap Burst-Gap OLine-Gap Reps-Gap Clyde Edwards-Helaire 98.33 70 80 100 100 5 Jonathan Taylor 81.48 60.2 85.71 59.52 48.98 49 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 80.62 56.25 65.62 76.19 34.38 32 Lamical Perine 76.28 47.62 76.19 56.25 -28.57 21 Joshua Kelley 69.28 45.83 75 61.11 20.83 48 Zack Moss 67.25 45.16 51.61 68.75 16.13 31 Michael Warren II 65.81 55 75 53.33 40 20 DeAndre Swift 65.32 36.11 66.67 58.33 0 18 Salvon Ahmed 64.85 45.65 73.91 47.06 13.04 23 JK Dobbins 64.19 44.74 60.53 52.17 50 38 LeVante Bellamy 63.37 27.27 77.27 64.71 -22.73 22 Anthony McFarland, Jr. 61.00 38.89 61.11 63.64 22.22 18 AJ Dillon 60.32 33.75 62.5 48 25 40 Cam Akers 60.22 41.67 79.17 52.63 -4.17 24 Eno Benjamin 58.73 26.67 66.67 40 6.67 15 Darrynton Evans 55.47 25 40 50 -20 10 J.J Taylor 51.48 17.86 64.29 55.56 21.43 14

To the earlier point on sample size, it is advisable to set aside Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s score in Gap runs. While he could be a monster in Gap, it would be irresponsible to make that claim based on this data.

Moving Forward

Next is the NFL Draft, and it is advised you use the excellent work already done in the NerdScore, draft profiles, and other rookie articles on DynastyNerds.com to build your personal draft boards. After the NFL Draft, fine-tune the running backs on your board with Running Back Vision to get that edge!