In an altogether unsurprising development, Paul Manafort was charged for financial crimes from his time ‘consulting’ for Ukrainian politicians. The no-knock warrant was a pretty strong give away that charges were coming and they triggered the same regret Trump had when Luther Strange lost. He quickly deleted all his old Manafort tweets, which means he never said them, right? With these charges there is rampant speculation as to their timing and purpose. If the Trump campaign really did conspire to commit a crime with Russia, Manafort would be at its center. That collusion charges aren’t forthcoming, suggests that Mueller wasn’t able to find sufficient evidence and has settled for the provable charge. Some speculate that it is a tactic to get Manafort to flip, but if that’s the case, I doubt it will be successful. Even if the fever dreams of criminal collusion are true, Manafort has little incentive to divulge information so long as Trump can pardon him for his crimes, which may be difficult to prove in the first place. Watch Mueller go after him for breaking state law to really turn the screws. However, by in large, the Manafort charges are evidence that the case has stalled on the Russian collusion front. They do, however, carry significant importance to the Podesta group, which Paul Manafort worked with at the time. The latest reports are that Tony Podesta has stepped, what an incestuous town!

There are two less headline driving developments as well. The co-charges against Rick Gates and the revelation that George Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and has been acting as a cooperative witness. Gates seems to be in a similar place as Manafort, but without the political leverage. The far more interesting case is Papadopoulos and some of the emails that were divulged. The short is that he was seeking out political dirt on Clinton from Russia. He made the rookie mistake of not going through a law firm to get political dirt on the opposing campaign from a Kremlin cutout. Instead, he lied about his entreaties to the FBI and subsequently has been in a world of trouble. He failed to realize that while the FBI doesn’t prosecute lies made in defense of Clinton, it has no problem doing so when it concerns someone associated with Trump. The emails provide an unflattering look at the depths political campaigns go to and suggested he was in contact with Kremlin associates. Much hay will be made out of this, but barring some further revelation, it looks like the Trump tower meeting in of June 2016, except with a much more ancillary member of the Trump campaign. However, if there are legal problems to be had with collusion, they’ll likely come from this development. On the other hand, the emails lay out clear evidence that Russia was still trying to develop contacts in the Trump campaign late into the primary, which refutes claims of long standing ties. This unfortunate contradiction to the collusion claims will no doubt be ignored.

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