Despite Fauci's dire numbers, those estimates are in fact on the low end of what other experts have warned. Left unchecked, with no social distancing or other measures and a death rate similar to those seen in other countries, it has been estimated that COVID-19 could infect up to 40%-70% of the population and kill between 1-3 million Americans in the next 18 months.

But the United States got a late start—a very late start—on testing the virus, tracking it, and on subsequent social distancing measures, and that means we are already on a pandemic "curve" worse than even that of Italy. 100,000 deaths now seem all but certain.

Fauci was therefore skeptical that social distancing guidelines could be lifted anytime soon, as Trump has repeatedly pressed for. "It's going to be a matter of weeks," he said, and if needed "we will push the date forward."

Even 100,000 deaths may be, at this point, a too-optimistic scenario. Republican-led states like Florida continue to resist stay-at-home orders despite clear evidence that they are on disease trajectories similar to current hotspots; emergency supplies continue, even with months of warning, to be rationed due to scarcity.

x Dr. Anthony Fauci says there could potentially be between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths related to the coronavirus and millions of cases. Ã¢ÂÂI just donÃ¢ÂÂt think that we really need to make a projection when itÃ¢ÂÂs such a moving target, that you could so easily be wrong,Ã¢ÂÂ he adds. #CNNSOTU pic.twitter.com/F2MOHY3xl4 — State of the Union (@CNNSotu) March 29, 2020