Extraordinary Raid Week is officially underway and shiny Bronzor has been spotted! Let the shiny hunt begin! Bronzor will be available throughout the event in 1-star raids, as a reward from the Field Research Task “Win a raid.” and out in the wild. Based on previous Silph research, we know that the shiny rate for a species is the same across all encounter types, so all that’s left to figure out is the probability! The Silph Research Group has been hard at work recording data on Bronzor since the event began to uncover the shiny rate. This is our second attempt at providing real-time updates on shiny rates for newly released species while an event is ongoing. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the results so far!

5/25/2019 17:00 UTC Update

Four days into the Extraordinary Raid Week, Silph Researchers have collected 2479 Bronzor across Raids, Field Research, and out in the wild, 15 of which were shiny, leading to an approximate shiny rate of:

1 in 165

95% CI of 105 – 280

At this point it is almost certain that the rate is boosted above the standard 1 in 450 rate. There is less than a 0.06% chance of receiving 15 or more shinies in 2479 encounters at the standard rate. Regarding how much the shiny rate might be boosted, 1 in 150, 200, or 250 are all likely rates. We’ll keep this article updated over the coming days!