Texas is too big to do justice if we want to talk both state and federal-level positions, so this is going to be federal. I’m hoping that with our other fantastic Texan Kossacks, we can come up with the state level as well! The efforts to make sure we knew what was coming and where we had candidates in VA helped the community know where to put in time and money for a critical election that has already led to 5 more House retirements (or is it coincidence?).

So, the marquee race is TX-Sen. If we want Majority Leader Schumer, we need four things. Hold our current seats. If it’s a blue wave, this will not be as difficult as the map paints it...but it’s still not simple. Second, the seat in AZ. Third, the seat in NV. Fourth, well, we already have one new seat, with Senator Jones (D-AL), but why stop at 51? TX is actually the next best bet. After that, it’s TN, MS, WY and a host of states which are even redder….and don’t have the smarmy ass that is Ted Cruz to run against. TN is getting a lot closer, and I’ve heard good things about NE (my current home away from home), but this is a Texas diary, darn it!

That’s a face people will trust!

Given this starting point, what do we have? Beto O’Rourke is waging a strong campaign so far. In 2nd Quarter, he outraised Cruz, $2.1M to $1.6M. In the 3rd Quarter, he kept up with Cruz ($1.7M to $1.76M). That means that since he announced, he’s outraised a sitting Senator...by almost half a million dollars. Ted’s got a much bigger war chest, but it shows he can get the monetary support...while refusing PAC and special interest group money. He’s also travelling to every county in Texas and talking...and listening. Check out his campaign! Mr. NB and I had the chance to see him when he came to Ft. Bend County — we were impressed. For all he’s new at the Federal level, he’s been getting things done, like increasing doctors for the VA hospitals. These are things that matter both morally and in a state with such a high level of military retirees. He has integrity, youth, knowledge and charisma. He can connect with folks. He’s Irish-American, but grew up in a Spanish-speaking area...so he can campaign and talk with folks in both languages (very important for Dems down here). He’s also a full-throated Progressive, much like JFK, Bobby Kennedy and Jason Kander...all three young, handsome politicians who could talk with anyone. (I loved Pres Obama, but his charisma was a bit different. Still powerful, but different.)

Beto in Ft Bend County. You can’t see the rest of the packed bar...or the 100-150 standing outside, trying to listen to the piped speakers!

Ok, so we have not just a powerful and plausible challenger to Ted Cruz in his first re-election bid...but a Progressive with a capitol P. The only poll that’s been done in April (just as Beto announced) had it tied at 30% each. Not a great number for Beto, but a PATHETIC number for a sitting Senator that just lost a Presidential Primary bid. As Beto gets more name recognition, his numbers will go up. Cruz? I’m sure they’ll go up some, but...*shrug* He’s not going to get better known than he is now.

The House

And here we go into a crazy long section. PLEASE bear with me. I’ll bold the TX districts that are going to be the more competitive...and I’m using under 60% from 2016, since we’ve been seeing a roughly 10-20 point swing in the elections so far. (I have to use something) Right now, TX is a 11-25 split, in favor of the GOP. I’m also only going to list the GOP districts.

Here’s a quick map to orient yourself.

TX-1: Louis Gohmert (incumbent). Wouldn’t it be fantastic to get rid of him, and turn the far East of the state blue? Gohmert does have a couple primary challengers, and we even have a contested primary. It’s a crap district for us: Gohmert has gotten over 70% in the last two elections, against (underfunded) Team Blue. As hopeful as I am, this one is probably a margin-decreaser at best to help the statewide races.

TX-2: Ted Poe (retiring). Poe announced his retirement last month. This is one of those disgusting Houston collar county districts: it catches just a bit of SW Houston (inside the Loop), then runs up to grab Cypress, and stays north of the Beltway to loop past Humble. With that gerrymander, though, the best the longtime incumbent could manage in 2016 was 60% of the vote. We have at least one (of eight declared Dems) who raised six figures in the 3rd quarter. It’ll be tough, but 23 points is...not out of the question based on how 2017 has gone, especially with the loss of the incumbency advantage.

TX-3: Sam Johnson (retiring). This district is NE of DFW area, and is going to be challenging. Johnson retired in January, so this is likely an age issue, rather than wanting to avoid a wave. At least one of the Republicans wanting a promotion has a seven-figure war chest, but we went from not contesting in 2014 to winning 35% in 2016, so I’m not willing to write it off.

TX-4: John Ratcliffe (incumbent). This NE district has NO current information on it because it has been UNCONTESTED for the last two cycles. However, this time we have TWO candidates competing for the chance to help find Dems in places that have been ignored.

TX-5: Jeb Hensarling (retiring). Another NE district, this one is E of DFW, stretching along next to District 1. We only have one candidate here (compared to the nine republicans), so it’s not likely competitive. It’s also a district we left uncontested in 2016 and 2014.

TX-6: Joe Barton (retiring). We all know Joe Barton — the man who decided to retire two weeks ago, after naked pictures showed up on the internet. The district is strange: it is mostly ESE of DFW, but with an odd chunk reaching up between the two cities. Despite the late announcement, there are 11 Republicans...and five Dems...fighting for their chance to head to DC. In 2016, Ruby Fae Woolridge (one of this cycle’s candidates) kept him Barton under 60%. That means this one is TOTALLY winnable, especially with a contested primary to sharpen campaign skills and motivate Dems.

TX-7: John Culberson (incumbent). There’s a lot of attention on this Houston-area district, even though Culberson apparently doesn’t notice it. Of the SEVEN Democrats seeking to help him find a new job, FOUR have raised six figures in the 3rd quarter. There’s a reason for this: it went from a 63-35 race in 2014 to a 56-44 race in 2016...and that’s with James Cargas having only raised $68K to Culberson’s $1.2M.

TX-8: Kevin Brady (incumbent). Here’s another challenging race. TX-8 is N of Houston, N of the suburbs, in fact...which makes it very challenging territory. It went uncontested in 2016 and 2014...and Brady has $2.7M on hand. We have two candidates here, which will at least allow us to cut into the GOP margin statewide. As with the other uncontested races, it’s incredibly difficult to handicap these, but that’s a huge warchest to go up against.

TX-10: Michael McCaul (incumbent). The snake stretching from Austin to Houston, TX-10 is another disgustingly gerrymandered district. It’s also one where we held the GOP under 60% in 2016, and we have eight Democrats ready to make it competitive.

TX-11: Mike Conaway (incumbent). It’ll be hard to overcome Conaway’s $1M warchest, but we have three candidates who’ve filed to make it a go. How impressive is it? For this central TX seat, it’s been uncontested for the last two cycles. What little information we have says this wasn’t contested at a statewide level either, so there’s not much to go from.

TX-12: Kay Granger (incumbent). There won’t be much action until Nov in this compact district just W of Fort Worth: Kay is the only republican running, and Vanessa Adia the only Democrat. It’s a seat where Kay has kept 70% of the vote, so will be a challenge. On the other hand, it’s another district where the GOP isn’t used to a contested General...she has a $1M warchest, and her challengers in previous years didn’t break five figures.

TX-13: Mac Thornberry (incumbent). This is North Texas — and another sleepy race until Nov, with only Thornberry and Dem challenger Greg Sagan running. It’s one of the most hostile areas in the state, with no Dem in 2016...and Mike Minter only garnering 13% in 2014. However, we have a challenger. If we’re going to contest at all levels, we need to make sure we’re giving all races some support rather than running Some Dude and hoping Democrats will appear out of nowhere to vote for someone they’ve never heard of.

TX-14: Randy Weber (incumbent). TX-14 runs along the north Gulf Coast...with a break in the middle for TX-36. It’s possible there are barrier reefs or something, but this district doesn’t even look contiguous on most maps. It’s just past my arbitrary cut-off, but is worth tracking. Weber only has $200K in the bank, so a little money to one of our two Democrats could make an enormous difference in turnout and enthusiasm.

TX-17: Bill Flores (incumbent). This is one of the few races where we have a contested primary, and the GOP does not. It’s a second part of the gerrymander to keep Austin from having a Democrat in congress — it stretches NE through the city, then includes an enormous chunk of rocks, scorpions and ranchers. Despite the gerrymander, Flores only got 61% of the vote in 2016. Another ‘longer-shot’ race, but one to watch (and support, if you can). Here’s an area where we have the population, it’s a matter of getting folks registered and to the polls...and supporting the Dem campaign enough for us to get the message out.

TX-19: Jodey Arrington (incumbent). This is another one-v-one general election fight, filling the gaps in N Texas between Districts 11 and 13. We didn’t contest in 2016, and only got 18% in 2014, but we have two challengers ready to at a minimum improve the margin. Despite the long odds, both Democrats garnered five figure gains in the third quarter — we should be able to get the message out and give folks a choice at the least.

TX-21: Lamar Smith (retiring). This ugly district has a bit of San Antonio, a bit of south Austin, and a lot of landscape West of both cities. In 2016, Smith only garnered 57% of the vote, though: that might explain why we have not just SIXTEEN republicans in the primaries: we also have four Democrats. From a fundraising perspective, Joseph Kopser (with $417K raised 3rd quarter) is the person to watch…but the other three brought in respectable five figure hauls.

TX-22: Pete Olson (incumbent). TX-22 is a personal target of mine, because it’s my district. Covering most of Ft Bend County, this SHOULD be a ripe opportunity for Team Blue. For those not from the area, Ft Bend is the state’s most diverse county, and has been rapidly growing. Lucky for me, we did keep Pete under 60% (barely) in 2016...and we have five candidates running to challenge him this cycle. We NEED to put in time and money here: Ft Bend managed to turn a very, VERY light shade of blue at the Presidential level in 2016. Even though the county and district aren’t pure matches, there is a LOT of overlap, and so a lot of potential here.

TX-23: Will Hurd (incumbent). Ah, the infamous TX-23, along the Rio Grande. It went Red by the slimmest of margins in 2016, so is absolutely going to be another battleground this cycle. And it is: we have five candidates in the Democratic primary, two of which reported five-figure hauls in 3rd quarter. Here is somewhere else we need to focus on organizing, GOTV and the all-important voter ID.

TX-24: Kenny Marchant (incumbent). No GOP challengers want to take on the current office-holder with a $1.5M warchest, but four Democrats do. The district is fairly compact, containing its share of both Dallas and Fort Worth. Kenny also got only 56% in 2016, so is another race we need to focus on in 2018. Beto’s visited Tarrant County a couple times already, and has indicated it will coordinate with candidates down-ballot: we have another fantastic opportunity here.

TX-25: Roger Williams (incumbent). The 25th takes a large chunk of West Austin and stretches it up to the Fort Worth collar counties...another gerrymander. It’s also another opportunity, since Williams only got 58% in 2016...and just 60% in 2014, so it wasn’t just a fluke. I know I’m saying ‘only’, but many of these races have had at best a Some Dude (or in this case, Dudette) candidate with minimal fundraising, name recognition...and the underlying weaknesses in the campaign that goes with not having the money to pay key staff. Of the six challengers, three have posted five figure hauls for 3rd quarter (based on what little information I can pull — the other three weren't listed), so it’s certainly possible to turn this into a real race given what we've seen of Dem turnout this year.

TX-26: Michael Burgess (incumbent). Northern Fort Worth suburbs and a lot of rural don’t make for the most hospitable district...and Burgess hasn’t gotten under 60% since he first won. That hasn’t stopped challengers from showing up, and we have three this year. There’s also the possibility of a contested primary: republican Victoria Birkenstock pulled in six figures in the 3rd quarter, so she can certainly make it bloody, and give Team Blue a bigger chance.

TX-27: Blake Farenthold (retiring). No, I won’t post the infamous picture, because this is a diary for the CHILDREN! So it’s not — it’s for political activists, but there COULD be children in the room! At least he finally announced his retirement — AFTER the filing deadline for the Gulf Coast district. More than that, we’ve had representation here in the past: we lost the seat in the 2010 bloodbath. There are five Democrats running to help us turn it back that way. In 2016, Blake got 61% of the vote, but I’m still bolding this one because of the scandal and loss of incumbency. Hey, it’s my rule, I can break it.

TX-31: John Carter (incumbent). From what I can tell, this district is Round Rock and north (just north of Austin), so not exactly the most friendly territory for us. On the other hand, we just won a Round Rock city council race, so we can certainly compete. Of the four candidates, I found that three had five figure fundraising (one was at $94K), which indicates there’s a fair bit of support. Carter also only got 58% in 2016. To show how winnable this is...if the Dem had gotten as many votes in 2014 as in 2016, he would have been the incumbent going into that Presidential cycle.

TX-32: Pete Sessions (incumbent). This is my trigger point. In 2014, Pete won with 61% of the vote...but any presidential year, the holder of the Dallas/Garland district has always been under 60%. And in 2016, we didn’t even contest it. Even then, he only got 71% of the vote...against a Libertarian and a Green candidate. Yeah. In a state with straight-ticket voting, 29% found a way to vote for a non-major party candidate. It’s not uncontested this year: we have thirteen running in the primary, and three have six figure fundraising hauls.

TX-36: Brian Babin (incumbent). East of Houston and stretching up to cover most of Jasper County, the 36th is not easy territory either. However, it’s not out of reach: Babin may have been uncontested in 2016 and won 71% in 2014, but we have two candidates here (one with six figure fundraising). We may not win this, but we’ll certainly contest it.

Wrap Up

If you’ve stuck with this long, thank you! Texas is serous about the full-in strategy: we have two real candidates for Governor and are competing in more than 130 State House districts of 150. There have been great diaries about that in the past, and I’m sure will be again. The big takeaway here is that the top of the ticket has an unapologetic, humble and genuine progressive — who polled even with Ted Cruz in the only check of the race. We also have candidates in 36/36 Congressional districts, which is amazing — and in a lot of those districts, we’re seeing solid fundraising as well! So, a NoBlinkers thought experiment: what happens if we win all the bolded races? The Texas delegation will go from 25/11 GOP to 22/14 DEM. There are 11 congressional races within that arbitrary, 60% (plus Farentholt’s district) measurement. In many of these districts, if we turn out the way we did in 2016, we’ll probably win. How far are we from owning the House? The 2016 election left us with a 241/194 split….which, with the recent resignations has turned to a 239/193 split. That means to gain control of the House, we need to gain 25 seats (when you include those three). In Texas, based on how we’ve done this year, we could get almost halfway to owning the House. Without all those other very winnable districts nationwide. Texas is big — and that means, so is our opportunity. If we go for it.