Story highlights The federal government is facing a possible shutdown next week

The government has been here before in 1995 and 1996

History may give Congress pause before embarking on another shutdown

No science or religion can accurately predict what will happen in Congress.

But looking plainly at the political chess board and listening to sources on Capitol Hill, there is plenty of reason to think that a shutdown of the federal government won't happen, at least not next week.

Here's why:

Politics. And blame. And 1996.

"Let's put it this way," Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, told CNN. "I'm not about to shut down the government and have Republicans take the blame for it. It's just that simple."

Bluntly, many Republicans fear they will be blamed for a shutdown, just months before a big congressional election year. This makes them highly motivated to find a way to keep government running. A CNN/ORC poll in mid-September showed 51% of people would hold Republicans in Congress responsible for a shutdown versus 40% for President Barack Obama.

Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – A Park Service police officer stands guard in front of the Lincoln Memorial during a partial shutdown of the federal government in November 1995. Many government services and agencies were closed at the end of 1995 and beginning of 1996 as President Bill Clinton battled a Republican-led Congress over spending levels. Hide Caption 1 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – An employee hangs a sign on the door of the Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum in Washington on November 14, 1995, marking the start of the government shutdown. Hide Caption 2 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – A tourist peers out a ferry window at the Statue of Liberty on November 14, 1995, as a small group of visitors wait on the dock to board the vessel. No passengers were allowed off the boat as both the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island were closed after federal workers were sent home. Hide Caption 3 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – Sen. Pete Domenici, R-New Mexico, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee holds up a chart showing the differences between Republican and Democratic budgets as Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, left, and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole stand by during a press conference on Capitol Hill. Hide Caption 4 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – A police officer walks through the empty Statuary Hall in the Capitol on November 15, 1995. Hide Caption 5 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – The national debt clock in New York is stopped during the government shutdown in November. Hide Caption 6 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – President Clinton speaks about the federal budget impasse from the Oval Office on November 16, 1995. The first part of the budget shutdown ended on November 19 when a temporary spending bill was enacted. But Congress failed to come to an agreement on the federal budget, leading to a second shutdown starting December 16. Hide Caption 7 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – UPS workers deliver letters to members of Congress on November 28, 1995. The letters were written and sent by members of the Coalition For Change, a nonpartisan organization devoted to balancing the budget. Hide Caption 8 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – A speaks to demonstrators at the Capitol Rotunda on December 7, 1995. Evangelical leaders from around the country held a prayer session to call on legislators to treat the poor justly during welfare reform and budget negotiations. Hide Caption 9 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – House Appropriations Committee Chairman Rep. Bob Livingston, right, holds a "closed" sign outside the National Gallery of Art in Washington on December 18, 1995. Hide Caption 10 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – A security guard informs people that the passport office is closed at the Federal Building in Los Angeles on December 18, 1995. Hide Caption 11 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – Rep. John Boehner dumps out coal, which he called a Christmas gift to President Clinton, during a news conference about the federal budget on December 21, 1995. Hide Caption 12 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – Karen Bishop chains herself to colleagues during a rally at the Federal Building in San Francisco on January 3, 1996. The workers claimed they were in servitude to the government as hundreds of thousands of federal employees were either furloughed or had to work without pay. Hide Caption 13 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – Food service employees at the Veterans Hospital in Miami line up to receive food rations on January 3, 1996. Many federal employees faced financial hardships during the shutdown. Hide Caption 14 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – Tourists line up outside the National Gallery of Art in Washington on January 5, 1996. It was one of the few government buildings open during the shutdown thanks to the assistance of private funds. Hide Caption 15 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – People trying to apply for visas at the U.S. consulate in Paris on January 5, 1996, are told that the building is closed because of the U.S. budget crisis. Hide Caption 16 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – Rep. Thomas Davis III, R-Virginia, attends a rally in Washington on January 5, 1996, urging the end of the government shutdown. Hide Caption 17 of 18 Photos: Photos: The last government shutdown The last government shutdown – Tourists view Yosemite National Park in California after it re-opened on January 6, 1996. Early that morning, President Clinton signed Republican-crafted legislation to restore jobs and provide retroactive pay to government workers while he and Congress continued negotiating how to balance the federal budget. Hide Caption 18 of 18

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House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, might already be in this camp. He initially proposed a spending bill that would have avoided a standoff. Conservatives forced him to go to war with a different version fully defunding Obamacare, but Boehner's opening move was an important signal that he wants to sidestep a shutdown.

There may be some learned behavior from history here, too. "I saw this movie before, I saw what happened before," said Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, talking about the sting Republicans felt after the shutdowns in 1995 and 1996. "That's what happened the last time we tried this," he concluded.

Bottom line: Ideal or not, Congress runs on political currency. And multiple House GOP aides tell CNN that the majority of the Republicans in their conference fear a shutdown would cost them with voters.

The next fights

Republicans are divided over how far to take the Obamacare battle right now. And GOP leaders also are preparing a second Obamacare fight during the upcoming debt ceiling debate. So, they have the option of dropping the anti-Obamacare push from the shutdown debate now and instead including it in the debt ceiling fight coming up.

At the same time, Democrats are eager to get past the shutdown debate so they can move on to the debt ceiling and start to deal with yet another fight: budget cuts slated to hit in January at the latest.

The numbers

Republicans have 233 members in the House, 16 votes more than a majority. Those 233 are divided over how far to take the Obamacare fight, over whether to ultimately shut down government in the name of defunding the health care law.

Facebook users mentioned 'Obamacare' 300,000 times in the U.S. and 360,000 times globally, according to data from the site. Here is a breakdown of those Facebook users.

Deadline pressure

Something happens in the day or two before a potential shutdown. Whatever the atmosphere and seemingly-firm positioning now, things will ramp up fast if Congress gets closer to a shutdown, especially a shutdown that would go in place during a work week.

Workers ask if they will be sent home without pay. Troops (and their families) worry if their paychecks will be delayed. Families may start to cancel vacations. That is the moment when incredible political pressure against a shutdown builds.

The deadline itself

Finally, we come to a public secret. The government does not necessarily have to shut down at the end of the day on September 30. Yes, at midnight, funding officially runs out for most programs. But if lawmakers are close to a deal, the president can order agencies to keep running for a few hours or perhaps even a day or two for Congress to pass the legislation.

This has happened before. Recently.

At midnight at the end of April 8, 2011, the funding for most agencies officially ran out. But Democrats and Republicans had struck a funding deal a few hours before, it just had not passed through Congress yet. So the Obama administration told agencies to hold off with any shutdown plans because a spending bill was likely to become law soon. In that case, it waived just a few hours of shutdown, but sources in both parties at the Capitol have confirmed that the president can do this for a longer period if a deal is emerging.

Again, Congress works best on deadlines, and the shutdown deadline is not quite as firm as people might think.

Why a shutdown (still) might happen

All this said, you cannot underestimate the swirling, unpredictable dynamics in Congress at the moment and Republicans' gut-level objections to Obamacare.

Once the Senate passes its version of a spending bill, House Republicans are considering attaching another item to it. That could be a one-year delay in the individual insurance mandate in Obamacare, a repeal of a medical device tax, a change in how the government handles congressional employee health plans or possibly something in support of the Keystone pipeline.

A spending bill with something Republicans want and Democrats don't would set up a late game of chicken between the House, Senate and president. If no one blinks, which is possible, this would lead to a shutdown. It's unclear whether House Republicans will do this. It is also unclear how Democrats would react.

But this scenario is the reason there is still a chance a shutdown could happen.