Stan Collender: “Technically, a shutdown will occur because the legal authority for the government to spend money will expire. In reality, however, the real reason will be that someone involved in the negotiations will view this as an opportunity to be seen as a political badass by his, her or their base.”

“This week, Donald Trump is most likely to be that person.”

“Given the various firestorms that have occured just this past week — the book, the remark about Haiti and African countries and the hush money paid to a porn star — Trump may want to reassure his base that he is still very much in charge by refusing to sign even a simple, clean and short-term extension of the current continuing resolution. Even if it doesn’t include anything about immigration, Trump could still demand funding for his wall and say he is more than willing to shut down the government until he gets it.”