Another disappointing season is in the books, so it's time to look forward to the offseason and try to generate some optimism that the Chargers will rebound back to playoff contender status in 2020.

First, let's see how much cap space the Chargers have to work with. Per Spotrac, as of right now, the Chargers have 41 players under contract for 2020, listed here with current 2020 cap hits:

DE Melvin Ingram $16,625,000 LT Russell Okung $15,531,250 DE Joey Bosa $14,360,000 WR Keenan Allen $12,650,000 CB Casey Hayward $10,750,000 ILB Denzel Perryman $8,512,500 QB Tyrod Taylor $7,500,000 C Mike Pouncey $7,250,000 OLB Thomas Davis $7,250,000 WR Mike Williams $6,284,068 DT Brandon Mebane $6,250,000 TE Virgil Green $3,500,000 S Derwin James $3,378,806 DT Jerry Tillery $2,595,945 G Forrest Lamp $2,121,293 LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,570,793 WR Travis Benjamin $1,500,000 G Dan Feeney $1,146,158 S Nasir Adderley $1,075,480 DT Justin Jones $931,535 S Rayshawn Jenkins $900,553 T Trey Pipkins $874,019 OLB Kyzir White $823,610 CB Desmond King $804,998 RT Sam Tevi $775,450 LB Drue Tranquill $749,702 C Scott Quessenberry $731,063 CB Brandon Facyson $663,334 K Michael Badgley $660,000 RB Justin Jackson $660,000 QB Easton Stick $654,391 LB Emeke Egbule $624,091 DT Cortez Broughton $604,505 S Roderic Teamer $585,666 P Ty Long $585,000 LS Cole Mazza $585,000 WR Jalen Guyton $585,000 WR Jason Moore $585,000 WR Andre Patton $585,000 G Koda Martin $513,000 TE Andrew Vollert $510,000

I am going to start by assuming these players are certain cap casualties:

LB Perryman - his 2020 cap hit is $8.5125M; releasing him drops that to $2.025M in 2020 dead cap money

DT Mebane - his 2020 cap hit is $6.25M; releasing him drops that to $2M in 2020 dead cap money

WR Benjamin - he has a 2020 cap hit because the Chargers reworked his contract in 2019 to make 2020 a voidable year; he will count $1.5M in 2020 dead cap money

I am also going to assume that G Koda Martin, TE Andrew Vollert, WR Guyton, and WR Moore are not on the final 2020 roster. That leaves this group as the currently signed players for the 2020 roster:

Offense (14):

QB (2) - Taylor, Stick

RB (1) - Jackson

FB (0) -

WR (3) - Allen, Williams, Patton

TE (1) - Green

C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry

G (2) - Feeney, Lamp

T (3) - Okung, Tevi, Pipkins

Defense (17):

Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Nwosu, Egbule

Interior DL (3) - Jones, Tillery, Broughton

LB (3) - Davis, White, Tranquill

CB (3) - Hayward, King, Facyson

S (4) - James, Jenkins, Adderley, Teamer

Special Teams (3):

PK (1) - Badgley

P (1) - Long

LS (1) - Mazza

To no one's surprise, both lines look like weaknesses, and the offensive skill positions are also extremely thin. Before we address that, how much cap space would the Chargers have in this scenario? Per Spotrac:

Spotrac currently uses $199M as the projected 2020 salary cap. The Chargers are currently set to carry over $2,922,232, raising their projected cap to $201,922,232. The 34 contracts identified above total to $126,386,710, leaving $75,535.522 remaining. Feeney, King, Tevi, and Jenkins all qualified for raises in 2020 due to the Proven Performance Escalator. Each of their salaries will be increased to the 2020 original round RFA tender amount, which is projected to be $2.144M. These raises are not included in the list above, so they will add another $4,948,841 to their combined 2020 cap hits, leaving approximately $70,586,681 remaining. The Chargers are currently carrying just $155K in dead cap money for 2020 from Windt's contract. However, releasing Perryman ($2.025M), Mebane ($2M), Benjamin ($1.5M), and Martin ($6K) would bring the total 2020 dead cap money to $5.686M. Deducting that leaves $64,900,681. Telesco will reserve cap space for the practice squad and injuries. I will conservatively assume $4,082,360, leaving a $60,818,321 remaining. I chose this because I think $4M is the minimum here, and using this odd number will get me to a nice round number after the next step.

The Chargers will draft from the #6 spot in the 2020 NFL draft, and I assume they will receive a 3rd round compensatory pick for Tyrell Williams. Assuming no trading of picks and assuming all 8 drafted players make the final roster, it seems reasonable to use the combined 2019 cap hits of the 6th player taken in every round of the 2019 draft plus the 2019 cap hit of the last 3rd round pick as a proxy for the combined 2020 cap hit of the Chargers' incoming draft class. That combined total in 2019 was $9,826,972. Adding 5% to that for 2020 increases the figure to $10,318,321.

So with 34 current players plus 8 draft picks accounted for, there is approximately $50.5M in cap space available to spend in 2020.

First, let's take a look at the team's free agents. I will start with the Restricted Free Agents (RFA) and Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs) and make some assumptions:

I assume the Chargers will tender RFA Ekeler with a first round tender, projected to be $4.667M. I suppose the team could try to sign him to a long term extension, but for purposes of this exercise, I assume he will play at that amount. (Note, I address later that I expect the team to let Gordon walk; the combination of that departure plus Ekeler's stellar play in 2019 is why I think they will give him a first round tender rather than a lower tender.) I assume the Chargers will tender RFAs Michael Davis and Rochell with an original round tender, projected to be $2.144M. I assume the Chargers will not tender RFAs Pope, Drango, Culkin, or DeBoer. They could still re-sign any/all of them as camp bodies, but I don't expect any of them to make the final roster, with the possible exception of Pope. So I'm going to ignore them. Trent Scott and Cantrell are ERFAs. I assume the Chargers will sign both of them to one year deals at minimum salaries, but I am going to assume neither makes the final roster, so I'm going to ignore them.

Accounting for Ekeler, Rochell, and Davis, the remaining cap space is down to $41,545,000.

Before getting to Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs), let's take a look at a couple other things. I'm going to make some more assumptions:

I assume Pouncey and Okung will return healthy enough to be expected to start and play the entire season in 2020. So I will not consider either of them as possible cap casualties. I also will not consider them as candidates for contract extensions, since I think they both have to prove they can stay healthy before another contract extension. Ingram has a big cap hit and is entering the final year of his contract. I think the Chargers should extend his contract, and lower his 2020 cap number in the process. I assume they will give him a 4 year extension where the last year is an out year for the team. I assume this will lower his 2020 cap hit by $2M. Allen is entering the last year of his contract. I think the Chargers should extend his contract, and lower his 2020 cap number in the process. I assume they will give him a 4 year extension and lower his 2020 cap hit by $2M. 2020 is Bosa's 5th year option year. Particularly in light of what happened with Gordon in 2019 on his 5th year option, I think the Chargers should go ahead and sign Bosa to a market value 5 year extension that averages more than $20M per year. I assume they will do that and lower his 2020 cap hit by $2M. I assume the Chargers will exercise the 5th year option on Mike Williams this offseason, but this will have no effect on the 2020 cap. LB Davis could possibly be a cap casualty target. He is set to make $7.25M, and releasing him would drop that to $2M in 2020 dead cap money. However, if you look at the group of MLBs and WLBs identified above in the core group, releasing him would leave just White and Tranquill at those positions, without accounting for draft picks and/or external free agents. The coaching staff has had nothing but praise for Davis's play this season, and I expect they will want to keep him, especially given I already assumed the release of "veteran leaders" Mebane and Perryman. So I will assume he sticks. QB Taylor will certainly need to be a cap casualty if Rivers is back, since his 2020 cap number jumps to $7.5M. But, in the most painful assumption I have made thus far, I assume Rivers will not be back, the Chargers will draft a QB with their first round pick, and Taylor will be kept in 2020 to open the season as the starting QB and provide some mentorship to the rookie.

So the net cap effect of these assumptions is to add $6M, raising available cap space to approximately $47,545,000. I'm going to round that down to a nice even $47.5M to move forward.

On to the Chargers' internal UFAs, I will make some assumptions:

To start off, we can eliminate some players. I assume the Chargers will not attempt to re-sign WR Benjamin, LB Dzubnar, TE Kendricks, WR Davis, G Groy, DT Sylvester Williams, or LB Brown. I assume the Chargers will let Gordon walk. It just does not make sense to commit the money he is looking for to any RB in the league today, much less to one who struggles to average 4 ypc and, more importantly, one who did great harm to the team with his 2019 holdout. Sayonara. As stated above, for purposes of this post, I assume the Chargers will not re-sign Rivers. I assume the Chargers will sign Henry to a market value contract, which Spotrac estimates at 4 years, $35.5M. I don't have any better information than that, so I will assume that is the contract he signs. I will assume that results in a $6M cap hit in 2020. I assume the Chargers will re-sign Schofield to a new contract. I assume he will command a considerable raise given the state of OL play in the NFL today combined with the dire situation the Chargers are in with their OL. For the same reason, I don't think he will sign for less than 3 years, and they may need to go to 4 years, where the 4th year could be an out year for the team. I will assume a 4 year, $17M contract, with a 2020 cap hit of $3M. Despite letting college teammate Gordon go, I assume the Chargers will re-sign Watt. Lynn seems like a coach who will always want a fullback on the roster, and Watt is great on special teams. I will assume a 3 year, $8M contract, where the 3rd year is structured as a possible out year for the team. I will assume he has a $1.5M cap hit in 2020. I think the team should re-sign S Phillips. Hopefully the fact that he missed most of the season will keep his price down a bit, because he played really well (second highest PFF grade on the defense, behind Bosa). I will assume a 3 year, $10M contract, where the 3rd year is structured as a possible out year for the team. I will assume he has a $2.5M cap hit in 2020. With James, Adderley, Jenkins, Phillips, and Teamer on the roster, I see no reason for the team to re-sign Watkins, and I assume they won't. With Tillery disappointing, Jones average to below average, and my assumptions that Mebane and Sylvester Williams are gone, the team may feel compelled to re-sign Square. He was arguably the Chargers' best interior DL this season (Williams and Broughton each had slightly higher PFF grades, but they combined for 84 snaps, while Square played 402). Yet Square wasn't so good that he should be expensive. I will assume the team re-signs him to a 2 year, $7M contract, with a $2.5M 2020 cap hit.

That brings remaining 2020 cap space down to $32M. Before moving on to external free agents, let's make some assumptions about the 8 draft picks:

As I already mentioned, I assume the team will use the #6 pick to draft their QB of the future. Given the weakness at OL, I think the team drafts 1 OL player. I am going to assume the team signs a veteran to start at RT, along with re-signing Schofield as already mentioned. That makes LG the primary target for an upgrade, especially since both Feeney and Lamp are UFAs after the 2020 season, and, at this time, there is no reason for the Chargers to consider re-signing either of them. So I assume the team will draft a G. IMO this should be the 2nd or 3rd round pick. Similarly, the interior DL is also a weakness. I assume the team will draft one. IMO this should be the 2nd or 3rd pick. With only Ekeler and Jackson identified at RB, I have to assume the team drafts one. I'm thinking 5th or 6th round. With only Patton behind Allen and Williams, the team needs a couple WRs. I assume they will draft one. The team needs a 3rd TE, so I assume they will draft one. Telesco loves to draft LBs, and with the departures of Brown and Perryman, they will need to replace them. I assume they will draft one. I assume the team will draft a CB to round out that group at 5 players.

I mentioned above that I assume the team will sign a veteran free agent to start at RT. I would like to see the team make this their primary target in free agency and spend big. There are multiple candidates. I will use Jack Conklin as a proxy, since Spotrac has an estimate of his market value - 6 years, $90M. I will estimate his 2020 cap hit as $13.5M. It could clearly be someone other than Conklin, but I will use this as a proxy cap value.

I also think the team needs to sign a veteran 3rd WR. Above I assumed the draft picks in rounds 1-3 would be QB, OL, and interior DL. I think it would be unwise to count on Patton or a WR drafted in the 4th round or later to be the 3rd WR. I will use Randall Cobb as a proxy, since Spotrac has an estimate of his market value - 2 years, $14.3M. That might be a little on the high side, so I will assume a 2020 cap hit for this TBD veteran of $5M.

With both Perryman and Brown gone, and having assumed the team drafts 1 LB, it seems another veteran LB is needed. I'm not really sure who to use as a proxy here. Last season, Telesco signed veterans Perryman and Davis, and they both had cap hits just under $3.5M. So I could see a veteran with a $3.5M 2020 cap hit.

That leaves $10M in available cap space. Let's take a look at the adjusted roster my assumptions have formed:

Offense (25):

QB (3) - 1.6 Draft Pick, Taylor, Stick

RB (3) - Ekeler, Jackson, TBD Draft Pick

FB (1) - Watt

WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Patton, TBD Veteran Free Agent, TBD Draft Pick

TE (3) - Henry, Green, TBD Draft Pick

C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry

G (4) - Schofield, Feeney, Lamp, TBD Draft Pick

T (4) - Okung, TBD Veteran Free Agent, Tevi, Pipkins

Defense (25):

Edge (5) - Bosa, Ingram, Nwosu, Rochell, Egbule

Interior DL (5) - Jones, Tillery, Square, Broughton, TBD Draft Pick

LB (5) - Davis, White, Tranquill, TBD Veteran Free Agent, TBD Draft Pick

CB (5) - Hayward, Davis, King, Facyson, TBD Draft Pick

S (5) - James, Jenkins, Adderley, Phillips, Teamer

Special Teams (3):

PK (1) - Badgley

P (1) - Long

LS (1) - Mazza

IMO it doesn't necessarily make sense to carry Stick as a 3rd QB, but I assume the team will do that, envisioning him as the backup QB in 2021 and beyond, with Taylor not retained.

It is possible that signing a veteran free agent RT could result in the team releasing Tevi. I think they would have to feel really good about Okung's ability to stay healthy to do that, which is why I am showing Tevi making it.

Otherwise, the offense looks set.

On defense, I suppose Teamer could be a candidate for upgrade with a veteran, but the team seemed to like him in 2019, and he is cheap. Facyson, Egbule, and Broughton could also be upgrade candidates with that remaining $10M. For that matter, I suppose the team could look for another veteran CB in place of re-signing Davis, and add his tender amount to the pot.

Overall, the defense will have to be the strength of this team. It looks pretty good, provided good health and especially if Tillery can make a big improvement in year 2.

The offense looks like it will continue to struggle IMO. There will be a huge dropoff from Rivers to rookie/Tyrod/Stick, and the offensive line, while upgraded, will still be a weakness.

I think there is a good chance Rivers will return, which would change a lot of this, assuming his cap number would be considerably higher than $10M.

Thoughts?