by Aaron Schatz

Last year, we introduced a new metric on FO called "adjusted interceptions." The basic idea:

We add in plays where the quarterback only escaped an interception because the defender couldn't hold onto the ball (dropped interceptions, which we've been tracking in game charting since 2007).

We subtract plays where the interception is tipped to the defender by a receiver who should have caught the pass.

We subtract Hail Mary interceptions as well as interceptions thrown in desperation on fourth down in the final 2:00 of a game.

Obviously, there's going to be a little bit of subjectivity here, but our game charters do their best. If the defender has to dive for a ball only to have it bounce off his fingertips, that's not a dropped interception.

Interceptions are notoriously hard to forecast from year to year, because there's so much random chance and statistical noise involved. However, we did find that this new metric, adjusted interceptions, had a higher year-to-year correlation than standard interception totals and was a better predictor of future interceptions.

However, that wasn't as true from 2010 as it was in the previous four years. Looking only at quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in both seasons, the correlation coefficient for adjusted interception rate from 2007-2010 is .33, while the correlation coefficient for regular interception rate is .08. Looking just at 2010-2011, the correlation for adjusted interception rate is .15, while the correlation for regular interception rate is -.08. Yes, that's right; that's the more often you threw picks in 2010, the (slightly) less often you were likely to throw picks in 2011.

No quarterback came close to the 15 dropped interceptions we counted for Mark Sanchez during the 2010 season. Four quarterbacks tied for the league lead with nine dropped interceptions: Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, and Matthew Stafford. Of course, three of those guys played a full season, so I think it is safe to say that Carson Palmer is our dropped interception champion for 2011. His adjusted interception rate of 7.1 percent leads all quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, although Caleb Hanie had 8.1 percent with 99 pass attempts. (Hanie had 102 pass attempts by official NFL totals, but we're not including clock-stopping spikes.)

And what about Sanchez? On the surface, it looked like Sanchez was making worse decisions than the year before. His interception total rose from 13 to 18. However, look at adjusted interceptions and Sanchez actually improved in 2011. Our game charters only registered three dropped interceptions thrown by Sanchez in 2011, despite more pass attempts. His adjusted interception rate is much lower than it was in 2010.

This year's most remarkable dropped interception total was a low total: zero. Aaron Rodgers had zero dropped interceptions by our count. In the five years we've counted dropped interceptions, he's the only quarterback with more than 400 attempts and no dropped picks. Now, obviously I'm sure our game charters missed a dropped pick here or there and it is possible one of those we missed was thrown by Rodgers. Readers are welcome to leave comments with plays they think we should check for dropped picks. (Be specific about game, quarter, and time.)

The other remarkable number in this year's total belongs to Tarvaris Jackson. We count four of Jackson's 13 picks as Hail Mary attempts. No other quarterback this year had more than one. For those Seattle fans who are curious, the four plays are: the last play of the first half in Week 1 vs. SF, the last play of the first half in Week 3 vs. ARI, the last play of the game in Week 9 vs. DAL, and the interception thrown with 0:49 left in the fourth quarter and the Seahawks down by 15 to Cincinnati in Week 8, the pass returned by Reggie Nelson for a touchdown. That last one isn't what we conventionally would consider a "Hail Mary," but I coded it as such because it was nigh impossible for Seattle to win the game at that point.

The following table lists adjusted interceptions for all quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts:

Name Team INT HM/

End Q4 Drop INT Tip INT Adj INT Pass Att INT Rate Adj Rate 2010

INT Rate 2010

Adj Rate C.Palmer OAK 16 0 9 2 23 326 4.9% 7.1% 3.2% 4.5% J.Skelton ARI 14 0 5 1 18 274 5.1% 6.6% 1.5% 4.4% C.Ponder MIN 13 1 5 0 17 291 4.5% 5.8% R.Grossman WAS 20 1 7 1 25 456 4.4% 5.5% 2.8% 2.8% K.Orton DEN/KC 9 0 4 0 13 252 3.6% 5.2% 1.7% 3.1% C.Painter IND 9 0 3 0 12 243 3.7% 4.9% C.Newton CAR 17 0 9 1 25 514 3.3% 4.9% K.Kolb ARI 8 0 3 0 11 252 3.2% 4.4% 3.5% 3.5% M.Vick PHI 14 1 6 1 18 418 3.3% 4.3% 1.5% 3.0% P.Rivers SD 20 0 4 0 24 579 3.5% 4.1% 2.2% 2.7% B.Gabbert JAC 11 0 6 0 17 412 2.7% 4.1% J.Freeman TB 22 0 2 2 22 546 4.0% 4.0% 1.2% 2.5% B.Roethlisberger PIT 14 0 7 1 20 514 2.7% 3.9% 1.2% 1.9% R.Fitzpatrick BUF 23 0 3 4 22 566 4.1% 3.9% 3.2% 4.5% M.Hasselbeck TEN 14 0 7 1 20 517 2.7% 3.9% 3.6% 4.4% M.Stafford DET 16 0 9 0 25 663 2.4% 3.8% 1.0% 3.0% J.Flacco BAL 12 0 9 1 20 543 2.2% 3.7% 1.9% 2.4% Name Team INT HM/

End Q4 Drop INT Tip INT Adj INT Pass Att INT Rate Adj Rate 2010

INT Rate 2010

Adj Rate T.Jackson SEA 13 4 7 0 16 451 2.9% 3.5% M.Sanchez NYJ 18 1 3 1 19 539 3.3% 3.5% 2.4% 5.2% M.Moore MIA 9 1 4 0 12 348 2.6% 3.4% 6.3% 6.3% S.Bradford STL 6 0 6 0 12 357 1.7% 3.4% 2.4% 2.7% A.Dalton CIN 13 0 5 1 17 516 2.5% 3.3% C.McCoy CLE 11 0 4 0 15 463 2.4% 3.2% 3.7% 4.5% M.Cassel KC 9 1 2 2 8 268 3.4% 3.0% 1.5% 2.7% E.Manning NYG 16 0 2 1 17 589 2.7% 2.9% 4.4% 4.3% T.Tebow DEN 6 1 2 0 7 268 2.2% 2.6% D.Brees NO 14 0 5 2 17 653 2.1% 2.6% 3.2% 3.8% J.Cutler CHI 7 0 2 1 8 314 2.2% 2.5% 3.3% 4.9% T.Brady NE 12 0 4 1 15 611 2.0% 2.5% 0.8% 1.5% T.Romo DAL 10 0 2 0 12 519 1.9% 2.3% 3.2% 3.6% M.Schaub HOU 6 0 1 1 6 290 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% M.Ryan ATL 12 1 2 2 11 561 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 2.6% A.Smith SF 5 0 2 1 6 447 1.1% 1.3% 2.7% 2.5% A.Rodgers GB 6 0 0 2 4 501 1.2% 0.8% 2.2% 3.0%

Here's a secondary table of quarterbacks with 90-200 pass attempts.