Hi Daniel,



As a general statement, it could be said that low energy prices improve an economy while higher energy prices retard growth.



Yet, each economy adapts to 'the new normal' and any departure from that benchmark can be seen as a positive (lower energy costs) or a negative (higher energy costs)



Other non-energy parts of the economy advance or retard over time, due to energy pricing.



Therefore, all economies benefit from lower energy costs -- but those economies which are severely underperforming experience the largest improvement.



Low energy costs may help healthy economies, but orders of magnitude larger is the help that low energy prices give to underperforming economies.



It's my prediction that oil prices will continue to track at less than $60./bbl generally, until June/July 2016, whereupon oil prices will rise to $75./bbl and will only fluctuate ten dollars either side of that new norm until 2020, possibly 2025.



Which should give the weaker eurozone nations plenty of time to pull up their socks, the stronger eurozone members plenty of time to capitalize on the new norm, and the strongest economies like the U.S. and China to continue their growth.



Apart from repair and growth, the smartest economies will use this low oil cost window of opportunity to invest heavily in renewable energy, to lower energy costs over the long term.



New solar benchmark at 5.84 cents per kWh.



“The UAE and others, through the auction mechanism, have begun to show a different tier for the future, which is rapid increase of renewable energy based on cost and feasiblity.” -- The National (UAE)



"This means that the solar power generated from this phase will be sold to Dewa at a fixed rate of 5.84 cents over 25 years. The price of natural gas – which generates 99 per cent of the UAE’s electricity – stands at 9 cents. Solar energy is not only cost-competitive with conventional forms of power generation, but in the UAE it is even cheaper." -- The National (UAE)



http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/uae-beats-renewables-cost-hurdle-with-worlds-cheapest-price-for-solar-energy#full



New wind installations benchmark at 2.5 cents per kWh.



"...the most recent DOE analysis finds that wind power is at 2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, an "all-time low." One of the authors of the report, Berkeley Lab Staff Scientist Ryan Wiser, wrote, “This is especially notable because, enabled by technology advancements, wind projects have increasingly been built in lower-wind-speed areas.” -- Green Tech Media



http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Price-of-US-Wind-Power-at-All-Time-Low-of-2.5-Cents-Per-Kilowatt-Hour



And costs of solar panels and wind turbines have plummeted by 80% over the past 2 years.



Therefore, now is the time to plan ahead for cheaper renewable energy as the global economy continues to uptick courtesy of low oil prices.



Stated another way, renewable energy prices continue to fall and almost don't need subsidies anymore -- while fossil fuels will only rise, even as they receive (globally) more than $548 billion dollars in subsides annually.



"The IEA’s latest estimates indicate that fossil-fuel consumption subsidies worldwide amounted to $548 billion in 2013, $25 billion down on the previous year, in part due to the drop in international energy prices, with subsidies to oil products representing over half of the total. Those subsidies were over four-times the value of subsidies to renewable energy and more than four times the amount invested globally in improving energy efficiency." -- IEA



http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/



I appreciate the clarity of your writing, Daniel.



Best regards, JBS



