For those of you out there who believe you’ve done everything you possibly can to succeed in fantasy football, but are staring at a 1-6 or 2-5 record, I have a story for you.

Back in 2011, I’d assembled the perfect team, but started the season 1-6. You may laugh and think there’s no way that’s the perfect team, but let me explain why it was. I was the type of owner who legitimately knew which player was on which roster. A friend could ask me who I wanted in return for Player X, and I knew exactly who I wanted on their team without pulling up my phone or laptop. I knew every roster inside and out. I made trade after trade, improving my team to the point where there was nothing left to do. I remember telling my wife, “I have no idea why I’m not winning, I don’t know how to improve this team anymore.” Her response was, “don’t, leave it as is.”

After weeks of trading to assemble the perfect team, I took her advice and didn’t trade anymore. You can probably guess what happened next. I won six straight games to sneak into the playoffs with a record of 7-6, then went on to win our home league’s championship. Someone looked at my team at the end of the year, and I had just two players off my originally drafted roster. The bottom line is that there’s some things that are out of your control. Just because you haven’t started the season the way you would’ve liked, your team may be perfect just the way it is. If you look at it and are disgusted, you may want to make some desperation moves to turn things around.

Matchups:

PHI at JAC | BAL at CAR | DEN at KC | CLE at PIT | SEA at DET | TB at CIN | NYJ at CHI | WAS at NYG | IND at OAK | SF at ARI | GB at LAR | NO at MIN | NE at BUF | MIA at HOU

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In case you’ve missed it, I’ve been going back into The Primer on Saturday morning trying to update you on the injury reports that impact your decisions. While I cannot write a whole new article, I do talk about a lot of these things on our Sunday morning livestream, which is FREE to everyone. It’s where I discuss all the latest injury news and then take your questions live from 11-12am EST. Click here to be taken to our YouTube page where you can get notifications when we go live.

If you’re new here, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. Whether it be season-long advice, DFS advice, or wide receiver/cornerback matchups, it’s all covered. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Who should be in your lineup this week?

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (In London)

Total: 41.0

Line: PHI by 3.0

QBs

Carson Wentz: Going back to 2017, there were just five games in which Wentz threw the ball more than 32 times. This year, he’s thrown the ball at least 35 times in each of his five games. It’s likely due to the lack of run-game, and that’s unlikely to change against the Jaguars this week. The issue is that this isn’t a game where you’ll want to throw a ton, as the Jaguars match-up really well with the Eagles. The Jaguars defense has struggled as of late, but they’ve still held four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve played to 183 yards or less. In fact, Patrick Mahomes was the only quarterback to average more than 6.8 yards per attempt against them. Over the last two years, which is now a span of 23 games, the Jaguars have allowed exactly two top-15 performances to quarterbacks. With Jeffery matched-up with Jalen Ramsey and Ertz being covered by highly-athletic linebackers, it could be a week for Wentz to bring out the legs, though he’s yet to run for more than 26 yards coming off his ACL injury. He’s not a great start in this game, but he also might be catching the Jaguars at the perfect time as they go through a meltdown. Consider him a middling QB2, but one you shouldn’t be afraid to sit if you have a decent alternative option.

Blake Bortles: It seems as if Bortles will be the starting quarterback once again in Week 8, as head coach Doug Marrone said that if he could’ve benched all 11 offensive players, he would’ve, and that it was more about sending a message. The issue is that Bortles is still Bortles, he’s down to his third-string left tackle, he’s down to a third-string tight end, and he doesn’t have a go-to option in the passing game. The Eagles defense has allowed at least 269 yards through the air in each of their last four games, including a 21-point fourth-quarter comeback from Cam Newton last week. They’ve also allowed at least 33 rushing yards to three different quarterbacks, which bodes well for Bortles’ fantasy floor in this game, though benching is now clearly an option after Marrone opened that box. There’s been no quarterback who’s thrown the ball less than 33 times against the Eagles, and 6-of-7 have thrown at least 37 attempts. It’s unlikely Hyde/Yeldon will be able to do much on the ground, so we should expect something similar out of the Jaguars. In the three games where Bortles has thrown at least 37 attempts this year, he’s totaled 376/4, 388/2, and 430/1. While it hasn’t been pretty getting to those numbers, Bortles is on the mid-QB2 radar, though he’s tough to start considering recent events.

RBs

Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood: After last week’s showing, most are left wondering if the Eagles add a running back, but it was always going to be a tough matchup with the Panthers. Now they’ll match-up with a Jaguars defense that is clearly going through some issues. After allowing just 376 yards and two touchdowns over the first five weeks, they’ve allowed a massive 252 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks, including a 100-yard, one-touchdown performance to Lamar Miller. They’ve now allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games, but the issue is that the Eagles have no clear-cut goal-line back. Smallwood has three carries inside the five, while Clement has two, and Josh Adams has one. What we do know is that Smallwood has 30 touches over the last two weeks, while Clement has 24 touches. The Jaguars have allowed just one running back to catch more than four passes or 26 yards, and that was James White, who shouldn’t really be considered a running back. Both running backs are in RB3 territory, though I’ll side with Clement as the better play, as he’s a bit less gamescript dependent.

Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon: The Jaguars have now had a week to incorporate Hyde into the offense, though there’s a slight issue standing in his way… the Eagles run defense that’s allowed just one running back to eclipse 42 rushing yards against them, and that was Saquon Barkley. How many things to he and Hyde have in common? It’s not just each running back, either, as there’s been just one team of running backs who’ve totaled more than 55 yards. If there’s a glimmer of hope, it’s that the Eagles have allowed 32 receptions for 276 yards to running backs over the last four weeks, which is where Yeldon can prove to be valuable. The part that’s problematic is that they’ve still yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back and are one of just eight teams to do that. This is not a week to trust many Jaguars and yes, that includes both Hyde and Yeldon. If you play in a PPR format, Yeldon is in the RB3 conversation, but I’d put them both down as RB4 options in standard leagues.

WRs

Alshon Jeffery: What a start to the season for Jeffery, who now has 306 yards and four touchdowns in four games. What makes it that much more impressive is that he’s done it against Xavier Rhodes, Janoris Jenkins, and James Bradberry the last three weeks. He’s played phenomenal football and has even drawn pass interference calls that don’t show up on the stat sheet. He’s got his toughest matchup yet this week, as Jalen Ramsey awaits. He’s a big, physical cornerback who will get his hands on Jeffery early and often. After Wentz was willing to throw into tight coverage more than any other quarterback last year, he’s been one of the most risk-adverse quarterbacks through five games, throwing into tight coverage just 13.3 percent of the time. Jeffery is a phenomenal play week-in and week-out, but this is a matchup where he’s likely to disappoint. Consider him just a high-end WR3 who should not be played in DFS lineups.

Nelson Agholor: If there’s one Eagles pass-catcher who has a plus-matchup, it’s Agholor. After allowing nine catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns to Cole Beasley, the Jaguars lucked out when Keke Coutee re-injured his hamstring early in the game. The Jaguars have had Tyler Patmon covering the slot while D.J. Hayden has been out since Week 2, and in that time, he’s allowed 11-of-14 passing for 114 yards in his coverage. He was actually forced to leave the Week 7 game against the Texans with a neck strain, so he may be unavailable for this game. That would leave them starting rookie safety Ronnie Harrison at slot cornerback, which isn’t ideal. He came on in relief last week, allowing three catches on three targets for 23 yards. Agholor did see seven targets last week, so he’s back on the map as a WR3/4 in this game and it shouldn’t shock you if he outproduces Jeffery this week.

Keelan Cole: It’s now been 4-of-5 games where Cole has finished with 41 or less yards, making him someone who’s going to be available on waiver wires very soon. The benching of Bortles didn’t help, either, as he caught just 2-of-7 targets for 21 yards against the beatable Texans secondary. He’s going to see a mixture of Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, and Dexter McDougle in coverage, as he plays all over the field, but Darby will be his primary matchup. Darby hasn’t been very good in coverage this year, allowing a team-high three touchdowns in his coverage. He’s seeing a target in coverage every 4.9 snaps covered, which is the 10th-most in the league, so teams haven’t been afraid to attack him. He also made a crucial mistake late in the game against the Panthers, as he bit on fake inside and allowed Devin Funchess to snag the easy touchdown. Cole may not have as good of matchup as Westbrook, but it’s definitely not bad. He’s on the WR4/5 radar, though he obviously comes with a low floor.

Donte Moncrief: It’s odd to see Moncrief with 27 targets over the last three weeks (ranks top-10 among receivers in that time), but hey, that’s where we’re at. He’s also totaled at least 76 yards in three of the last four games. His 261 yards in that span rank 15th among receivers. He’s going to see Jalen Mills in coverage most of the time, who has really struggled mightily at times this year. He’s allowed a very-high 65.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year, while allowing a very-high 16.1 yards per reception. This is big because Moncrief has been targeted down the field more than most think, averaging 13.1 air yards per target, which is nearly four more yards than Keelan Cole‘s, even though he’s the wide receiver getting the least amount of separation on the team. He needs to be on bye week radars because of his abnormally high targets, but it’s very possible the Bortles realizes he’s not the solution to his problems.

Dede Westbrook: He’s slowly becoming an afterthought in fantasy, though this could be a week where he re-emerges on the radar. The Eagles nickel cornerback Sidney Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury and was forced to miss last week’s game, leading to the Eagles to sign Dexter McDougle off the street on Tuesday and have him play 81 percent of the snaps against the Panthers. He wasn’t targeted much in coverage, but we’re talking about a guy who’s played 157 career NFL snaps. Westbrook has been averaging a team-high 4.0 yards of separation (third-highest mark of WRs with 20-plus targets), so maybe it’d be wise to target him a bit more? He’s an excellent play in tournament lineups this week as someone who’ll be very low-owned, but he’s a risky WR4/5 option in redraft leagues.

TEs

Zach Ertz: After his nine-catch, 138-yard performance against the Panthers, Ertz is now on pace for 178 targets, 130 receptions, 1,413 yards, and five touchdowns this year. Yeah, those are WR1 numbers. He’s now running into his toughest matchup to date, as the Jaguars have allowed the fourth-fewest points to the tight end position. It has nothing to do with competition, either, as they’ve faced Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Evan Engram. They’ve allowed just 39.3 yards per game to them, while allowing just one touchdown through seven games. But here’s the thing – they’ve been burned out of the slot and are now playing a safety at nickel cornerback, which is where Ertz lines up most of the time. That’s why we saw Kelce post 5/100/0 against them. It’s not a great matchup, but it’s not enough for you to even consider benching Ertz. If anything, you should limit your exposure in DFS.

David Grinnage: No, I did not make this name up. He’s the starting tight end for the Jaguars this week, but not one that you need to consider for anything.

Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers

Total: 43.5

Line: BAL by 1.0

QBs

Joe Flacco: It’s been a successful season for Flacco, as he’s currently on pace for the most yards (4,725) of his career, including the second-most completions (427), and second-most touchdowns (25). Not bad for a guy who was left for dead by most. Going into Carolina, he’ll be leaned on once again as the Panthers have allowed just two rushing touchdowns to running backs this year, while allowing two passing touchdowns in each of their last five games. No team has scored more than 31 points against them, but no team has scored less than 17 points over those five games, so there’s at least two touchdowns to be had for this Ravens offense. The running backs have accounted for eight rushing touchdowns, while Flacco has thrown 11 touchdowns, and Lamar Jackson has rushed for one. Truth be told, Jackson is really going to cap Flacco’s upside on a weekly basis because of the goal-line packages they’re putting him in. This figures to be a low-scoring affair, which makes Flacco an unappealing streamer, though he should provide at least a 250-yard, one-touchdown floor.

Cam Newton: After throwing the ball 25 times or less in two of the first three games, Newton has thrown the ball at least 35 times in each of the last three games. He’s also thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the last five games, adding to his already fantastic fantasy floor. His rushing totals haven’t been off-the-wall good like they were last year, but as long as he’s throwing multiple touchdowns, he’ll be fine. And to be fair, he still leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (257) and touchdowns (3). The Ravens pass defense is legit and outside of the one Thursday night game against Andy Dalton where they just seemed off, they’ve allowed just four passing touchdowns in their other six games combined. They’re coming off a game in which they held Drew Brees to 212 yards and two touchdowns, which doesn’t bode well for Newton’s chances through the air. The Ravens do run plenty of man coverage, which is beneficial for a mobile quarterback like Newton, as the defenders often have their backs to the quarterback while trailing the receiver. It’s also why we’ve seen Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Allen all run for 23-plus yards against them. Newton isn’t a great play this week, but it’s hard to move him off the QB1 radar knowing what he offers on the ground.

RBs

Alex Collins and Javorius Allen: This is a timeshare that appears here to stay, though it’s been getting a bit clearer over the last few weeks. Here’s a chart of the touches between the two by each week:

Week Collins Allen 1 8 9 2 12 11 3 21 9 4 12 12 5 13 14 6 19 4 7 14 6

As you can see, the touch total sat Collins 66, Allen 55 through five games, but we’ve seen a much different split over the last two weeks where Collins has 33 touches to just 10 for Allen. The real issue, however, is that they’re splitting red zone work, as Collins has nine carries inside the 10-yard-line, while Allen has seven of his own, and they’ve both scored three touchdowns in that area. The Panthers struggled to contain power-back Adrian Peterson just two weeks ago, allowing him 97 yards on 17 carries, though they haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since way back in Week 3. It’s not a great matchup for either one of the running backs, as they aren’t even allowing much through the air to them. Saquon Barkley was the only running back to total more than 25 yards through the air. Consider Collins a high-end RB3 who should get 15-plus touches, while Allen is just a touchdown-dependent RB4-type.

Christian McCaffrey: Over the last two weeks, Panthers running backs have totaled 29 touches. McCaffrey has every one of them. He hasn’t done too much with them, either, as he’s totaled just 49 rushing yards and 97 receiving yards without a touchdown. Did you know that T.J. Yeldon has scored more PPR points than McCaffrey this year? While McCaffrey has given his owners a solid floor week-to-week, he’s not winning fantasy titles. We saw the Ravens allow their first top-24 running back last week, as Alvin Kamara found his way into the end zone, finishing as the RB14. Just to say that again, the Ravens have played against the Broncos duo (Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay), Joe Mixon, Carlos Hyde, James Conner, and the Saints duo (Kamara/Mark Ingram), but they’ve yet to allow a top-12 running back performance and have allowed just one top-24 performance. The biggest receiving game a running back has had against them was five catches for 34 yards, and that was Devontae Booker, who they likely had a small emphasis on defending. McCaffrey will likely deliver a usable RB2-type day in PPR formats, but he’s not someone you should aim to use in DFS this week.

WRs

John Brown: Our question of which wide receiver Marshon Lattimore would cover was answered on the stat sheet. He was glued to Michael Crabtree, which allowed Brown to continually burn Ken Crawley in coverage. He caught all seven of his targets for a season-high 134 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers will have the same decision, but will likely stick James Bradberry on Crabtree, while trusting speedster Donte Jackson on Brown. He’s been better than I expected while snagging three interceptions, but Jackson isn’t Brown’s caliber when it comes to talent. He’s just as fast as Brown, so he won’t continually be beat by him down the field, but Brown’s route-running underneath should allow for plenty of production. There have been just three top-24 wide receiver performances against the Panthers this year, but they’ve allowed plenty of wide receivers (9) to deliver usable double-digit PPR performances against them. Brown may not have the ceiling he did last week, but he should still be a very usable WR3 in this game.

Michael Crabtree: He was the unlucky one who drew Marshon Lattimore in coverage last week, but he was still able to deliver a non-bust performance of 5/66/0 on nine targets. He played well and is starting to get on the same page as Flacco, as the two have combined for at least five catches and 61-plus yards in four of the last five games. Knowing that Flacco doesn’t thrown many touchdowns, it’ll be difficult for Crabtree to move out of WR3 territory. He’s likely going to draw James Bradberry in coverage this week, the Panthers best cornerback who’s been taking on opposing No. 1 receivers. There’s been two matchups he’s struggled, and they were against Odell Beckham Jr. and Alshon Jeffery, who are two of the game’s best. Beckham is the only primary perimeter wide receiver who’s totaled more than 88 yards against them, so it’s not one to attack Crabtree aggressively. He’s on the low-end WR3 radar as he continues to build chemistry with Flacco, but he’s once again got the tougher matchup this week.

Willie Snead: Whew, what a disappointment last week. Snead had the best matchup of the season, saw seven targets, but dropped two of them (one of which would have been 20-plus yards and maybe a touchdown), and caught just three for 23 yards against his former team. The process was right, though he just didn’t deliver. His matchup this week will be against Captain Munnerlyn, a veteran who’s been somewhat of a mixed-bag in coverage. He’s allowing a 71 percent catch-rate, but at the same time, he’s kept the play in front of him, allowing just 8.9 yards per reception and no touchdowns. Prior to last week’s debacle, Snead had scored at least 10.4 PPR points in 5-of-6 games, so we shouldn’t write him off due to one bad game. He doesn’t come with a big ceiling, but he’s someone who should present at least a four-catch floor against Munnerlyn, which could help out PPR leaguers in a bye week pinch. He’s just a WR5 in standard formats.

Devin Funchess: Look, Funchess isn’t the most gifted of athletes and doesn’t have the most accurate quarterback, but he continually gets it done for those who trust him in fantasy. He’s now totaled at least 77 yards and/or a touchdown in four of his last five games, including touchdowns in three of the last four games. They’ve had a really good schedule, but still, he’s done really well with what he’s been given. This week, however, will be a different story. He’s going to be matched-up with Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith, two of the better man-coverage cornerbacks in the league. While Smith struggled with Michael Thomas last week (who doesn’t), Funchess owners shouldn’t expect a similar fate. Outside of Thomas, A.J. Green, and Antonio Brown (three of the games top five wide receivers), the Ravens haven’t allowed a perimeter wide receiver more than 11.9 PPR points. Funchess is someone you should attempt to keep on your bench if possible this week, as he’s just a weak WR4 option.

D.J. Moore: He’s still not playing a whole lot of the snaps (hasn’t topped 49 percent), he’s getting more involved in the offense, totaling at least five targets/carries in each of the last three games. Outside of his two fumbles against the Redskins, he’s done well with them, averaging 13.3 yards per touch. It’s really a question mark why he continually plays behind Jarius Wright, but knowing that plays are being designed for him helps. The weakness the Ravens have is over the middle of the field, as nickel cornerback Tavon Young is the weak point, and that’s where Moore is playing roughly half his snaps. Young has allowed 16-of-22 passing for 216 yards and two touchdowns this year, so it’s obvious the Panthers should be attacking that part of the field, as Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith nearly eliminate Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith (who might not even play). Moore isn’t anything more than a WR5 in season-long leagues, but he’s worth a look if you’re desperate. Update: Smith is out for this game, so while it should lead to more snaps for Moore, he’s also going to have to play on the perimeter a bit more, which is the Ravens best strength.

TEs

Mark Andrews: The Ravens tight end situation continues to be a mess. Seriously, it’s completely unpredictable. Here’s the snap counts since Hayden Hurst returned: Nick Boyle 118, Maxx Williams 80, Andrews 79, Hurst 57. They’re legit running four tight ends out there every single week and it’s frustrating because Flacco loves to target the position. Here’s the fine print, though… Andrews has run a route on 66 of his 79 snaps, while Boyle has run a route on just 30 of his 118 snaps. In fact, Hurst has run more routes (31) than Boyle. If you want to start one, Andrews is the one, and it’s a good matchup against the Panthers, too. They’ve allowed a top-15 tight end in four of their six games, with two top-15 tight end performances against the Bengals back in Week 3. They’re allowing 8.9 yards per target to them (5th-most), and 2.09 PPR points per target to them (4th-most). It’s tough saying Andrews is a preferred streamer, though, as he’s still yet to see more than four targets in a game. He’s on the streaming radar this week, but he obviously comes with massive risk.

Greg Olsen: Updating our numbers from last week, here’s Olsen’s last 11 games: 56 targets, 28 receptions, 299 yards, and two touchdowns. Does that look like must-start material? That’s just 2.5 receptions for 27.2 yards per game. He scored a touchdown last week salvaging his fantasy week, but he’s no longer someone you should automatically plug into lineups. This week, however, is not a bad matchup against the Ravens. They haven’t been really tested this season, as the best tight end they’ve played was David Njoku, who posted 6/69/0 and finished as the TE10 that week. Just last week they allowed Ben Watson to break out of his slump and finish with 6/43/1. Knowing that Funchess will match-up with Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr, and that the Ravens haven’t allowed more than 35 receiving yards to a running back, Olsen might break out of his shell this week and get back on the TE1 radar. The Ravens have allowed 8.0 yards per target to tight ends (13th-most) despite the lack of elite competition.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 55.5

Line: KC by 10.0

QBs

Case Keenum: After he was reportedly close to being benched in Week 6, Keenum played game-manager-esque versus the Cardinals last week, though it was a bad matchup. He’s going to continue being on a short leash as long as Vance Joseph is on the hot seat. Going to play the Chiefs seems like a good thing, right? Well, they’ve been much better over the last four weeks, which included a matchup against Keenum in Denver where they held him to just 245 yards and no touchdowns. Outside of that game, they picked off Blake Bortles four times, then held Tom Brady to just one passing score, and then Andy Dalton was benched. They didn’t suddenly become an elite defense, it’s just that teams have to make their choice on how to attack them, and they’d allowed four rushing touchdowns in three games before shutting down the Bengals. Royce Freeman is likely to miss this game, meaning they’ll need to lean on the pass just a little more than usual, especially when you consider how many points the Chiefs are putting up. It’s why three quarterbacks have thrown more than 50 passes against them, though Keenum won’t get there without being benched first. In three games at home, the Chiefs have played much better, allowing no more than 27 points to any opponent, including 14 or less in each of their last two home games. The Chiefs have allowed 7.7 yards per attempt (ranks ninth-most) on the year, so it’s not all bad for Keenum. Still, he’s a low-end QB2 who comes with more risk than necessary.

Patrick Mahomes: If there’s one team who’s held Mahomes in check, it was the Broncos who ‘limited’ him to 6.8 yards per attempt, while throwing one touchdown. There’s been just two teams who’ve held him below three passing touchdowns, and they were the Broncos and Jaguars. Do we think they can contain him while on his home turf? The strength of the Broncos defense is their pass-rush (11 sacks in the last two games), which was only able to get to Mahomes once in Week 4. It seemed they at least had a clue about how to contain him, and with it being a divisional game, it’s likely to be a closer game than most think. There hasn’t been much consistency to their defense, allowing a gaggle of rushing yards and touchdowns one game, while allowing three passing touchdowns in others. We do know that they’ve yet to allow a top-eight quarterback performance, but let’s be real, you’re starting Mahomes as a QB1. It’s tough to say he’s a must-play in DFS, but I’d definitely recommend having some exposure in tournaments.

RBs

Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker: While Royce Freeman said he’ll try to play this week, I’m not counting on it after he suffered a high-ankle sprain in their Thursday night game against the Cardinals. This is going to be Lindsay’s backfield with Booker mixed-in against the Chiefs, who have allowed 11 running backs to hit the double-digit point mark against them (in PPR). That’s more than any other team, so there was going to be room for both Lindsay and Freeman, but knowing Lindsay will see increased work, he’s on the high-end RB2 radar. The last time these teams played, Lindsay compiled 79 yards and a touchdown on 13 touches, while Freeman racked up 67 yards and a score. While Booker has continually been involved in the passing-game, Lindsay has seen just as many targets and will be valuable regardless of gamescript. Knowing there’s been seven running backs who’ve totaled at least 32 receiving yards against the Chiefs, Lindsay is a must-play regardless of format while Booker is on the RB4 radar in PPR leagues. Update: Freeman has been ruled out for this week, so consider Lindsay a must-play.

Kareem Hunt: I’m going to take credit for Hunt’s recent performances, as I gave him a pep-talk in the Week 4 primer where I tallied his last 14 games. Here’s the snippet: Since Week 6 of last year, Hunt has totaled 227 carries that have netted 886 yards (3.90 yards per carry) and six touchdowns. That’s a span of 14 games, so it’s a decent sample size. Since that time, he’s looked like a man amongst boys on the field, literally running over the competition, totaling 595 total yards and six total touchdowns in four games. It’s not just numbers, either, because if you’ve watched, this looks like a man on a mission. He’s now a 10-point favorite against the Broncos, who he exposed for 175 total yards and a touchdown in Week 4. After that, they allowed Isaiah Crowell 231 total yards and a touchdown, then Todd Gurley 225 totally yards and two touchdowns. They were the first team in NFL history to allow back-to-back 200-yard rushing games. And here’s the thing – with Mahomes playing as well as he is, there’s no way teams can focus on shutting down Hunt. The Broncos may have sold out to stop the pass against the Chiefs last time and allowed Hunt to run a bit, but it kept them in the game, so it’s hard to see their priorities change, making Hunt a rock-solid RB1 play this week.

WRs

Emmanuel Sanders: It was one of the locks of last week, though it was too bad we couldn’t use Sanders on the main slate in DFS, as his matchup was pristine. He comes back into a matchup with Kendall Fuller, who held Sanders in check in their Week 4 matchup, totaling just five catches for 45 yards on seven targets. That wasn’t Keenum’s best day, but it’s not as if he’s turned some corner and has turned into a competent starter since that game. When looking at the matchups, he’s going to see Fuller all game, as Fuller plays the perimeter in 2WR sets, and then goes into the slot (where Sanders goes) in 3WR sets. Fuller isn’t a shutdown cornerback like Chris Harris or anything, but he’s done a fine job for the most part, allowing these stat lines to slot-heavy receivers over the last five weeks: Tyler Boyd 3/27/0, Julian Edelman 4/54/1, Dede Westbrook 3/55/0, Sanders 5/45/0, and Trent Taylor 3/24/0. This could be a week where he takes a backseat to the production of Demaryius Thomas, though Sanders has shown a WR3-type floor in fantasy, scoring at least 11.3 PPR points in every game, making him playable even in a tough matchup.

Demaryius Thomas: The rumors are swirling that Thomas may be traded very soon, as the Broncos continue to move on to their future No. 1 wide receiver Sutton. This may very well be his last game in a Broncos uniform and although it’s not a bad matchup, it doesn’t look as good as it once did. The cornerback duo of Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick has played extremely well as of late, as no perimeter wide receiver has scored on them since back in Week 3. There’s been just one wide receiver touchdown over the last four weeks and it was Julian Edelman, who plays most snaps in the slot. Thomas totaled just 24 yards on seven targets against them back in Week 4, but should’ve had another 20-plus yards and a touchdown added to that because Keenum had him wide open in the fourth quarter for a potential game-winner, but overthrew him. He’s seen just 16 targets over the last three games, so he’s no longer a must-start, but he’s still on the low-end WR3 radar with bye weeks here and a potentially high-scoring game on deck.

Courtland Sutton: While Thomas continues to see less work, Sutton is the one who’s starting to see more work. He’s totaled 19 targets over his last four games, turning them into 9/155/2. The completion rate hasn’t been very high, but he’s also been seeing a lot of highly-contested catches and is known as a high-point type of receiver. He’s going to see a lot of Steven Nelson in this game, who has been extremely hit-or-miss throughout his NFL career. He’s allowed two 100-yard games in his coverage this year, but he’s also allowed just a 48 percent catch-rate with just one touchdown on 52 targets. Outside of A.J. Green, the Chiefs defense hasn’t allowed a top-20 wide receiver since Week 2, so it’s somewhat unlikely we see Sutton, the No. 3 option in the offense, surprise us with a breakout performance. He needs to be owned in all formats, but he’s just a touchdown-dependent WR5 this week.

Tyreek Hill: So, I keep my own spreadsheets on teams and what they have allowed, and I found something really interesting about the Broncos this week. Combining their opponent’s top three wide receivers and top tight end every week, they’ve yet to allow more than 48.8 PPR points. Think about that for a minute. Between Hill, Watkins, Conley, and Kelce, it’s against the odds that they’d score more than 48.8 PPR points. In the first meeting, that trio combined for just 40.7 PPR points against the Broncos, as Hill finished as the WR34, Watkins was hurt early in the game, Conley finished as the WR77, and Kelce finished as the TE4. The Broncos are supposed to get Adam Jones back from injury this week, though he’s not someone who’s able to keep up with Hill at this point in his career. The Broncos played it smart with Hill last time they played, giving him a cushion, willing to let him catch the shorter passes, but that still means they need to hit their tackles in the open-field. Expect the Chiefs to adjust to this and get Hill even more opportunities. He did see a season-high 13 targets in their first matchup but totaled just nine catches for 54 yards. The Broncos clearly have a gameplan for him, but I’m betting on Andy Reid to scheme against that. Hill should be started as a low-end WR1 who should be able to make things happen after the catch at a better rate than last time they played.

Sammy Watkins: He played just 12 snaps before getting hurt the last time these two teams played, so it’s difficult to know how they’ll defend him. Going into the slot typically benefits Watkins, but against the Broncos, it really doesn’t as Chris Harris awaits. The matchup with Bradley Roby and Adam Jones isn’t a terrible one, as they’ve allowed 10 wide receivers to score at least 13 PPR points, though they’ve allowed just three wide receivers to score 15 or more PPR points against them. Watkins has routinely seen seven or eight targets when healthy, so he should be considered a solid WR3 with the way Mahomes has played. It’s only a matter of time before the touchdowns start going his way.

TEs

Jeff Heuerman: We figured that Heuerman would see more work with Jake Butt going to injured reserve, which he did for a little while, though the zero targets in Week 7 weren’t confidence-inspiring. Part of that has to do with Keenum’s 21 pass attempts, but it’s hard recommending someone as a play when he’s a backup who’s coming off a game with no targets. Still, the Chiefs defense makes it appealing, as they’ve now allowed at least 57 yards and/or a touchdown to tight ends in 6-of-7 games this year. That includes Heuerman, who saw seven targets against them in Week 4, hauling in four passes for a season-high 57 yards. It’s highly unlikely that the Broncos throw the ball less than 35 times in this game, so we should see some targets for Heuerman in a plus-matchup. He’s no sure thing, but what streamer available on 95 percent of waiver wires is?

Travis Kelce: After seeing at least eight targets for five straight games, Kelce dipped to just five targets in Week 7, though his production didn’t suffer at all, as he caught all five targets for 95 yards. His current 16-game pace sits at 137 targets, 87 receptions, 1,287 yards, and seven touchdowns. That would’ve been the WR7 last year. Outside of Kelce’s Week 4 performance against them where he totaled 7/78/1, the Broncos have allowed just one top-12 performance to tight ends, though the competition has been weak. If you break it down on a per-target basis, they’ve allowed the fourth-most yards per target (9.9) to tight ends. There’s little reason to doubt Kelce this week, as the Broncos just can’t defend him. Not only did he tear them up earlier this year, but he lit them up for 7/133/1 last year, which was his second biggest game of the year. He’s an elite TE1 who can be played safely in season-long, DFS, wherever you’d like.