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Trudeau hurt his own party and the country when he backed away from his promise to make his 2015 victory the last first past-the-post election.

Inverness will not vote Green because it’s a fish-and-chips resource-based economy. Green is fine in theory but the fear is that Green means more fishing and land-use restrictions. The Liberal vote will be substantially reduced because Trudeau is seen as someone who doesn’t honour his electoral promises. And, just as importantly, the popular incumbent has retired. The switch to Conservatives will be significant but will be mitigated by those who vote strategically i.e. they don’t want a Liberal but they want a Tory even less.

It will not vote NDP because my father and grandfather did not vote NDP.

This time, there will be no red tide in Atlantic Canada. The Atlantic provinces will return to dividing up their political loyalties. The vote will also fracture differently across the country. It will be a dog’s breakfast.

Elizabeth May will have more company in the House from Atlantic Canada, but her capacity to eat into the “progressive vote” will be limited by strategic voting. At the last moment, many voters will lose their nerve and vote not for who they want but out of fear of the 1950s’ thinking of the Conservative Party. This is the great hope of the Liberals.

The problem is: Democracy can’t work this way because the resulting Parliament, no matter what it looks like, won’t reflect people’s genuine wishes. It will represent their fears.

Trudeau hurt his own party and the country when he backed away from his promise to make his 2015 victory the last first past-the-post election. The impression that stuck to him then and remains even for those who couldn’t care less about electoral reform is that he was just another expedient politician. This has clung to him surprisingly firmly, obscuring his government’s real accomplishments. It’s been good to see money flowing into needed community projects and national infrastructure; support for modern attitudes to gender and the need for dignity and justice for First Nations; and toughness on the carbon tax. He’s also cut a reasonable and attractive figure internationally. We don’t have to lower our heads when we walk out into the world.