Summary

Introduction

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland ( GERS ) addresses three questions about Scotland’s public sector finances under the current constitutional arrangements:

) addresses three questions about Scotland’s public sector finances under the current constitutional arrangements: What revenues were raised in Scotland?

How much did the country pay for the public services that were consumed?

To what extent did the revenues raised cover the costs of these public services?

GERS is a National Statistics publication. It is assessed by the independent UK Statistics Authority to ensure that it meets the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

is a National Statistics publication. It is assessed by the independent Statistics Authority to ensure that it meets the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. The estimates in GERS are consistent with the UK Public Sector Finances published in July 2018 by the Office for National Statistics ( ONS ). Feedback from users of the publication is welcome. A correspondence address is available in the back leaf of the publication. Comments can be emailed to economic.statistics@gov.scot.

Scotland’s revenue

Table S.1 shows two estimates of Scotland’s public sector revenue: (i) excluding North Sea revenue, and (ii) including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue. Estimates including a population share of North Sea revenue are available in the main chapters.

Scotland’s estimated non-North Sea revenue in 2017-18 was £58.6 billion. As a percentage of GDP , non-North Sea revenues increased to 37.5%.

, non-North Sea revenues increased to 37.5%. Non-North Sea revenue grew by 3.6% in 2017-18. This relatively strong growth is driven by increased national insurance contributions and corporation tax revenue. Revenue growth in the UK as a whole was slightly slower (3.1%), due to the reclassification of English housing associations into the private sector in November 2017 which reduces UK revenue and expenditure in 2017-18. Excluding the impact of the reclassification, UK revenue grew at 3.5%. Scottish housing associations continue to be classified as part of the public sector, although ONS are expected to review this classification later this year.

as a whole was slightly slower (3.1%), due to the reclassification of English housing associations into the private sector in November 2017 which reduces revenue and expenditure in 2017-18. Excluding the impact of the reclassification, revenue grew at 3.5%. Scottish housing associations continue to be classified as part of the public sector, although are expected to review this classification later this year. Including an illustrative geographical share of the North Sea, total Scottish revenue was £60.0 billion, an increase of 5.4% from 2016-17. This is faster than the growth in non‑North Sea revenue, reflecting the increase in Scottish North Sea revenue from £266 million in 2016-17 to £1,327 million in 2017-18.

Scotland’s non-North Sea revenue was 7.8% of total UK revenue in 2017-18. Including an illustrative geographical share of the North Sea, Scottish revenue was 8.0% of the UK total.

Table S.1: Total Revenue: 2013-14 to 2017-18

£ million 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Scotland – Excluding North Sea revenue 51,089 52,959 53,942 56,608 58,630 Scotland – Including North Sea revenue (geographical share) 54,535 54,336 53,993 56,874 59,957 As % of UK total revenue Scotland – Excluding North Sea revenue 8.1% 8.0% 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% Scotland – Including North Sea revenue (geographical share) 8.6% 8.2% 7.9% 7.8% 8.0% As % of GDP Scotland – Excluding North Sea revenue 36.3% 36.1% 36.6% 37.3% 37.5% Scotland – Including North Sea revenue (geographical share) 34.3% 33.9% 33.7% 34.7% 35.2% UK – including all North Sea revenue 35.7% 35.6% 35.8% 36.5% 36.5%

Table S.2 below shows estimates of revenue per person for Scotland and the UK . Excluding North Sea revenue, revenue per person in Scotland is lower than the UK average by £533 in 2017-18, and has been consistently lower in earlier years.

. Excluding North Sea revenue, revenue per person in Scotland is lower than the average by £533 in 2017-18, and has been consistently lower in earlier years. Including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, the difference between revenue per person in Scotland and the UK is quite variable. In the latest year, including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, revenue per person was £306 lower than the UK average.

Table S.2: Revenue per person: Scotland and UK 2013-14 to 2017-18

£ per person 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Scotland Excluding North Sea revenue 9,580 9,892 10,025 10,464 10,808 Including North Sea revenue (geographical share) 10,227 10,149 10,034 10,513 11,052 UK Excluding North Sea revenue 9,826 10,170 10,490 11,046 11,340 Including North Sea revenue 9,896 10,196 10,488 11,047 11,358 Difference (Scotland minus UK ) Excluding North Sea revenue -245 -279 -465 -582 -533 Including North Sea revenue (geographical share) 331 -48 -454 -534 -306

Scotland’s spending

Table S.3 below shows estimates of public spending for Scotland and the UK . Expenditure increased from £71.4 billion in 2016-17 to £73.4 billion in 2017-18. Scotland’s share of UK expenditure is relatively stable over the period, at around 9.2%.

. Expenditure increased from £71.4 billion in 2016-17 to £73.4 billion in 2017-18. Scotland’s share of expenditure is relatively stable over the period, at around 9.2%. Expenditure as a share of GDP excluding the North Sea fell by 0.2 percentage points in Scotland in 2017‑18, compared to a 0.4 percentage point fall in the UK . Spending growth in Scotland has been higher than the UK as a whole, primarily driven by increased spending by Local Government in Scotland and the impact of removing English housing associations from the UK total.

excluding the North Sea fell by 0.2 percentage points in Scotland in 2017‑18, compared to a 0.4 percentage point fall in the . Spending growth in Scotland has been higher than the as a whole, primarily driven by increased spending by Local Government in Scotland and the impact of removing English housing associations from the total. Including an illustrative geographical share of the North Sea, expenditure as a share of GDP fell in 2017-18. This reflects an increase in North Sea GDP , which grew by 15% in 2017-18, helped by rising oil and gas prices.

Table S.3: Total Public Sector Expenditure: 2013-14 to 2017-18

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Scotland - £ millions 67,767 68,640 69,492 71,354 73,398 Share of UK (%) 9.2% 9.1% 9.2% 9.2% 9.3% As % of GDP Scotland - excluding North Sea 47.5% 46.3% 46.6% 46.6% 46.4% Scotland - including geographic share of North Sea 42.7% 42.8% 43.3% 43.6% 43.1% UK – including all North Sea 41.2% 40.5% 39.6% 38.8% 38.4%

Table S.4 below shows estimates of expenditure per person for Scotland and the UK . Expenditure for Scotland has been consistently higher per person than the UK average over the period.

Table S.4: Total Expenditure per Person: Scotland and UK 2013-14 to 2017‑18

£ per person 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Scotland 12,708 12,821 12,914 13,190 13,530 UK 11,425 11,594 11,599 11,742 11,954 Difference (Scotland minus UK ) 1,283 1,226 1,316 1,448 1,576

Scotland’s Overall Fiscal Position

GERS provides two measures of Scotland’s fiscal position, the current budget balance and the net fiscal balance.

provides two measures of Scotland’s fiscal position, the current budget balance and the net fiscal balance. The current budget balance shows the difference between revenue and current expenditure. It therefore excludes public sector capital investment. It measures the degree to which taxpayers meet the cost of paying for day‑to-day public services, excluding capital investment. It is shown in Table S.5 below.

Excluding North Sea revenue, the current budget balance for Scotland tends to move in line with the figure for the UK , although the deficit in Scotland is typically around 6 percentage points larger. In 2017-18, the Scottish current budget balance excluding the North Sea improved by 0.3 percentage points, whilst the UK improved by 0.4 percentage points to move into balance. When including the North Sea, the movement in Scotland’s current budget balance is more variable, and does not follow the same pattern as the UK . Between 2016-17 and 2017-18 Scotland’s current budget balance including the North Sea revenue improved by 0.9 percentage points.

Table S.5: Current Budget Balance: Scotland and UK 2013-14 to 2017-18

£ million 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Scotland - Excluding North Sea -13,871 -13,092 -12,865 -10,700 -10,633 Scotland - Including North Sea (geographical share) -10,426 -11,715 -12,815 -10,433 -9,306 UK -67,524 -53,877 -38,385 -7,214 1,256 As % of GDP Scotland - Excluding North Sea -9.9% -8.9% -8.7% -7.1% -6.8% Scotland - Including North Sea (geographical share) -6.6% -7.3% -8.0% -6.4% -5.5% UK -3.8% -2.9% -2.0% -0.4% 0.0%

The net fiscal balance measures the difference between total public sector expenditure and public sector revenue. It therefore includes public sector capital investment, such as the construction of roads, hospitals, and schools, which yields benefits not just to current taxpayers but also to future taxpayers. It is shown in Table S.6 below.

Table S.6: Net Fiscal Balance: Scotland and UK 2013-14 to 2017-18

£ million 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Scotland - Excluding North Sea -16,677 -15,682 -15,549 -14,746 -14,768 Scotland - Including North Sea (geographical share) -13,232 -14,304 -15,499 -14,480 -13,441 UK -98,219 -90,491 -72,459 -45,686 -39,357 As % of GDP Scotland - Excluding North Sea -11.9% -10.7% -10.5% -9.7% -9.5% Scotland - Including North Sea (geographical share) -8.3% -8.9% -9.7% -8.9% -7.9% UK -5.5% -4.9% -3.8% -2.3% -1.9%

The net fiscal balance tends to move in the same way as the current budget balance, but is approximately 3 percentage points larger when expressed as a share of GDP . This reflects the fact that capital spending is relatively stable as a share of total spending over time.

. This reflects the fact that capital spending is relatively stable as a share of total spending over time. The charts below show the estimates of the current budget balance and net fiscal balance for Scotland and the UK since 1998-99. Consistent with other economic statistics, tables in the accompanying spreadsheets contain figures back to 1998-99.

Net Fiscal Balance: Scotland and UK 1998-99 to 2017-18

Current Budget Balance: Scotland and UK 1998-99 to 2017-18

Box S.1: GERS Frequently Asked Questions

The Scottish Government receives many questions from users about GERS . Below is a summary of some of the most frequently asked questions and their answers.

Q: Is GERS a description of the whole Scottish economy?

A : No. GERS reports only on public sector revenue and expenditure. Although these may be affected by economic performance, GERS does not directly report on Scotland’s wider economy. If users are interested in the measurement of the economy as a whole, they should examine other economic statistics products, such as the quarterly Gross Domestic product figures ( www.gov.scot/gdp) or Quarterly National Accounts Scotland ( QNAS , www.gov.scot/snap). These publications provide estimates of real terms growth in the economy, and GDP in cash or nominal terms and its components.

Q: What is the public sector?

The public sector contains all government bodies, and all bodies which are controlled by government. This includes publicly controlled businesses, such as Scottish Water and the Bank of England. Scottish housing associations are included in the public sector in the years covered by GERS , although English housing associations were reclassified to the private sector in November 2017. In GERS , the Scottish Government, Scottish Local Authorities, and the public corporations they control, such as Scottish Water and Scottish housing associations, are all considered to be Scottish public sector bodies. All other UK public sector bodies are described as ‘Other UK Government bodies’.

Q: Who produces GERS ?

A: GERS is produced by Scottish Government statisticians. It is designated as a National Statistics product, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the UK Statistics Authority as being produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. This means the statistics have been found to meet user needs, to be methodologically sound, explained well and produced free of political interference.

Q: How do you decide on changes that are made to GERS ?

A: In line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, changes are only made to GERS after consultation and discussion with users. This includes discussion at the annual Scottish Economic Statistics Consultation Group, [1] which brings together users of economic statistics from industry, academia and the wider public sector. Public consultation exercises, open to all, are also carried out to allow all users of GERS to comment on planned and suggested changes to GERS .

Q: Do you use company headquarters to assign corporation tax or taxes like VAT ?

A: No. Corporation tax on trading profits is estimated on a company-by-company basis, depending on the economic activity each company has in Scotland, not location of company headquarters. VAT is a consumption tax, and is therefore estimated based on purchases that are made in Scotland, rather than the location of a company’s head office.

Q: How do taxes from the whisky industry feature in the GERS estimates?

A: Like any industry, the whisky industry’s activity in Scotland generates tax revenue through a range of sources, such as corporation tax on profits, income tax and national insurance contributions on staff earnings, and non-domestic rates payments on business premises. These are all captured in the estimates of Scottish public sector receipts reported in GERS .

In addition, whisky consumed in the UK is subject to VAT and alcohol duty. This is assigned to Scotland on the basis of how much is consumed in Scotland. Whisky which is exported does not generate UK VAT or alcohol duty. There is no export duty in the UK .

Q: What are accounting adjustments and why do they feature in the GERS estimates?

A: Accounting adjustments are used to present revenue and expenditure on a National Accounts basis, the international reporting standards used by governments. They normally reflect non-cash items, such as depreciation or pensions liabilities. In general, these adjustments do not affect the net fiscal balance or current budget balance, as they are added to both revenue and expenditure. In 2017-18, accounting adjustments added £4.7 billion to the estimate of Scottish public sector revenue and £5.1 billion to the estimate of Scottish public sector spending. Comparable accounting adjustments are also contained in the estimates of UK public sector spending and revenue. For more information on accounting adjustments and where they appear in the revenue tables, see Table A.9.

Q: Is spending that does not occur in Scotland included in the estimates of Scottish public spending?

A: Yes. GERS aims to capture all spending that benefits the residents of Scotland. This means it assigns Scotland a share of some expenditure which takes place outside Scotland. It also means that it does not assign to Scotland expenditure which occurs in Scotland but benefits non-Scottish residents.

For example, expenditure on embassies occurs outside Scotland, but provides benefits to Scottish residents and companies, such as Scottish tourists requiring consular services. As such, Scotland is allocated a population share of this expenditure in GERS . Likewise, spending on museums in Scotland benefits visitors from the rest of the UK , so not all of this spending is assigned to Scotland in GERS .

Q: Why does GERS refer to public sector revenues rather than taxes?

A: Public sector revenue covers all income received by the public sector. Although this is mostly taxes, there are some forms of revenue which are not taxes. These include income made by public corporations, such as Scottish Water, or dividend income from companies in which the government holds shares.