The United States and China will eventually settle their differences over tariffs — maybe even reach a deal that allows both sides to say they won.

But don’t be fooled. Even if the world’s two biggest economies reach a truce, their relationship is likely to get worse.

That’s the bold warning that Henry M. Paulson Jr., the former Treasury secretary, plans to make to many of the world’s top business and political leaders on Thursday at a Bloomberg L.P. event on the economy in Beijing. During an interview with me this week, he shared a copy of the speech, previewing some of what he will say.

Mr. Paulson has spent a career trying to work with China, starting as a banker at Goldman Sachs, where China represented an enormous business opportunity , and later as Treasury secretary. His think tank, the Paulson Institute, focuses on China. He has close ties to senior officials in both countries and is often consulted by both sides — so the alarm bells he is ringing are likely to sound loudly in corner offices around the globe.