The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski today broke a new set of rumors on the (hopefully) pending new NBA collective bargaining agreement. The report states that the new CBA will start from a similar place to the current one with the revenue split between the players and owners remaining unchanged. Among the changes are increases to the rookie scale, veteran minimum, and free agent exceptions. Rosters will also expand to 17 players, with the final two spots dedicated to players on D-League assignment. The league will change the “age 36” rule, which limits contracts for older players, to an “age 38” rule. One significant rule that is reported to not be changing is the “one-and-done” rule for the draft.

Alongside Wojnarowski’s report, Zach Lowe (ESPN) and Howard Beck (Bleacher Report) discussed their expectations for the new deal on a podcast episode of The Lowe Post. The major change that they discussed was to veteran extensions, making them more viable for star players. Lastly, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported that the 2017-18 cap projection has been increased to $103M and that the new CBA is unlikely to include a new amnesty clause, will allow veteran extensions to be signed earlier than they currently can be, and will significantly weaken team power in restricted free agency.

Let’s take a look at these items from the Celtics’ perspective:

Increase to rookie scale

The Celtics are expected to have high picks in the next two drafts, plus a number of future picks of their own and from other teams. They also have two draft-and-stash prospects in Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic. If the scale contracts for all these players increase by “in the 50% range” it would be a significant hit to Boston’s cap flexibility. Increases to rookie year contracts for mid/low round picks will probably be manageable, though not ideal for players who could have been signed under the previous CBA, but high picks could account for multiple millions of dollars in additional salary. For a team operating on the fringe of max-salary cap space, that could be a real issue that forces the team to cut loose a player they otherwise would not have.

For example, under past projections the Celtics would have been able to clear max cap space by walking away from all of their veteran free agents (Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Tyler Zeller (option), and Kelly Olynyk) even if the Nets pick were to win the lottery. If the salary cap stays around $103M, max salaries stay the same, and rookie scale deals increase by 50%, that would now not be enough to sign a max player. The rumor has been that Yabusele might stay out of the NBA for more than one season which, if true, could be a major reason that Boston selected him. Clearing the scale deal for the 16th pick off the cap would re-establish max space, even if the Nets pick lands at #2. If he does want to come to the NBA next year, the team might have to trade away his rights, or some combination of other young players, if a major free agent agrees to sign.

If you want one very thin silver lining, larger contracts can be used for larger salary matches, if a package of young players eventually becomes a mega-trade package for a veteran star. The less cap flexibility teams have across the league the more likely trades and sign-and-trades become so that could, in some small future way, matter.

Increase to veteran exceptions

If the Celtics advance on their current track and become a contending team in the medium-term future, a more useful mid-level exception would be a good thing. Historically, the MLE has been a tool of teams’ self-destruction so it could also help the Celtics just in that they’re smarter than most other front offices. Anything that helps the less well run teams hurt themselves helps Boston.

Changing the Age-36 Rule to Age-38

This looks mostly like a concession to LeBron James whose new contract, for reasons not worth getting into here, was going to force a decision related to this rule in a few years. That will no longer be a problem. This rule change could impact Al Horford years down the line if he’s still an All Star-level player at the end of his contract, but honestly everyone would be happy to have to deal with that because of what it would mean for the next four seasons.

Maintaining the “one-and-done” draft rule

Of all the new reports, this is the best one for the Celtics. The final Nets pick from the Pierce/Garnett trade arrives in 2018. If the league had changed draft eligibility to “two-and-done” it would have pushed all the eligible freshmen in that class out to 2019, leaving a fallow group for Danny Ainge to choose from. The one-and-done rule came into effect in 2006 which, not coincidentally, was one of the worst drafts of all time. This is a pretty big bullet for the Celtics to dodge; you can safely continue to dream of DeAndre Ayton and Wendell Carter.

Roster expansion

The exact workings of this rule change will determine just how good it is for the Celtics, but with the current struggles to cut down to a 15-man group and a pile of future picks in the pipeline it can’t hurt. If this only applies to future non-1st round picks it won’t be great. If it allows the team to assign 1st round picks, or players signed under the previous CBA, to these slots it would make a real difference to team management. Incidentally, a future expansion to the roster makes it more valuable to hold onto current players on longer deals.

Veteran extensions

Making veteran extensions viable for max-contract quality players would be a welcome change but not great news for the Celtics. For a team hunting for a transcendent star, anything that makes them more likely to stick in their current location a bad development. If the team goes the opposite direction and builds through the draft, the players they would be building around may come up for extensions beyond the end of the new CBA, depending on when and if this deal has an opt-out. If more team-friendly extension rules are paired with allowing extensions to be signed earlier it would be a positive thing in the draft-and-develop path. In total, I think this marginally hurts the team but it really could go either way.

No amnesty clause

The Celtics just signed a 30 year old center to a four year max deal, so it’s not impossible that they could have a strong amnesty candidate down the line. Horford is the only player on the roster who could realistically be impacted by this, and that doesn’t seem likely, so it’s not a big loss to the franchise. The Celtics are so well managed that they were one of the few teams to not use the amnesty clause from the last deal. The best news for the Celtics may be that this news hurts the Heat, who would have loved to hold an amnesty provision in their back pocket pending how Chris Bosh’s situation plays out. No one wants to benefit from that, but it’s just a reality.

Restricted Free Agency

There are multiple changes being reported in this sphere, all bad for Boston. The belief is that restricted free agents will now be able to sign offer sheets on the first day of free agency and that their incumbent team will only have 48 hours to match instead of 72. Finally, teams will no longer be able to rescind qualifying offers within the first month of the offseason, as the Celtics recently did with Jared Sullinger. Barring a major trade, Boston will have a huge number of high quality young players coming up for their first non-rookie deal during the next CBA. From Kelly Olynyk through… Hamidou Diallo?… the Celtics could have important re-signings every year and an increased chance of losing them, assuming they don’t all develop into max players.

Without the ability to roll decisions into the second week of free agency, Danny Ainge will also struggle to execute his favored “keep all paths open” strategy. Right off the bat, the inability to rescind qualifying offers could cost the Celtics Kelly Olynyk if their roster looks roughly the same next summer as it does now. Making the offer to Kelly would remove the ability to sign a max-salary free agent without trading someone else, or waiting for him to sign with another team and clearing off the books. Knowing that Kelly is worth a decent amount more than his qualifying offer, assuming this season isn’t a disaster for him, means they probably still can extend to Olynyk knowing someone else would sign him if the Celtics ultimately need the cap space instead, but they’ll have to at least think about how to proceed now.

These changes to the nature of restricted free agency are potentially the biggest story here, aside from that there won’t be a lockout. That’s not just for the Celtics, but to how teams plan across the league. I’m a vocal proponent for weakening RFA control, but that doesn’t mean it won’t shake up a lot of teams, especially smaller market ones. These changes go farther than I expected.

Big picture

Most of the reported changes are pro-player. That could mean that the owners are simply happy to let the players change the way salaries get allocated as long as the top-line number doesn’t change, or it could be that these are NBPA leaks and the pro-ownership changes will become known in the future. At the moment this looks like a superficial win for the players. In the short-term, the biggest news for the Celtics is the preservation of the value of the 2018 Nets pick. The most major change for the league, and Boston’s long-term planning, is to restricted free agency. That means the Celtics have one big win, one major concern, one pain point (rookie scale), and then some things on the margins that are manageable.

If that means we don’t have a lock-out and miss games, so be it. Thankfully the Celtics employ one of the best front offices in the league. In some ways, their competence means change is an advantage of it’s own, but these changes aren’t great news.

You can follow me on twitter @dangercart. I maintain a salary cap modeling tool at www.roster-builder.com.