Labour presses leader to seek confirmatory vote, but sources say May will not agree to one

Talks between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May will break down if Labour insists on putting any compromise deal to a confirmatory referendum, government sources have said.

At the same time Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, has warned of a Labour rebellion if Corbyn agrees to a deal without such a vote.

Meanwhile, sources have indicated that it is likely that any agreement on a customs union will require a clause allowing the UK to withdraw from it in the future. As part of the compromise, legislation will be proposed to lock in the bulk of the proposals on workers’ rights and environmental standards.

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Overall, the high-stakes talks, which entered a third day on Friday, are seen to have made more progress than expected, but their fate will depend on whether either leader is willing to risk a split in their party to secure the deal.

Senior cabinet ministers appear to be willing to accept a customs union as the price of a deal.

The Conservative side is privately confident that no overall Commons majority can be reached for any amendment calling for a second referendum. It is seen as a red line that the government is not asked as part of the deal to tell its MPs to back a confirmatory referendum in the Commons.

Ministers have not ruled out bringing a version of May’s original deal back to the Commons in the next few days if the talks break down, but think she is more likely to wait a few weeks. On the other hand, a deal in the next few days will preclude the need for Britain to hold European parliamentary elections – something both parties wish to avoid due to the unpredictable results, and charges of betrayal over Brexit.

Overall, the number of cabinet resignations that would result if May backed a customs union is expected to be manageable, even though some ministers will want to quit in part to send a message that their Eurosceptic credentials are strong, thus increasing their chances of winning any leadership election.

The UK is confident the Tusk proposal of an extension of a year will be accepted by the bulk of the EU, but acknowledges that the French president, Emmanuel Macron, sees Brexit through the political lens of the European elections. The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, is determined to prevent the economic damage of a no-deal Brexit.

Watson insisted Labour had entered the talks with an open mind. But speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said: “We went into the discussions with the idea that there would be a confirmatory ballot. We need to see whether Keir Starmer and David Lidington can reach a creative accommodation that builds a consensus. But if it comes out of that process without the idea of a confirmatory ballot then I think we would have a bit of difficulty in our parliament party, but let’s see.”

Watson added: “We are bound by our conference policy. The people need to be part of that process … 80% of our MPs supported a confirmatory ballot.”

The Ealing Central Labour MP, Rupa Huq, who held separate talks with May on Thursday, said the prime minister was against holding a second referendum.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, she said: “She wasn’t keen on that, I have to say. She thought: ‘The people have voted, they have taken a decision.’ I was saying with a decision of this magnitude it is worth going in to check with people: ‘Do you still want this?’”

Asked on ITV’s Good Morning Britain whether Labour’s negotiating team would insist on putting any agreement to another referendum, Watson said: “It seems to me highly unlikely that we would support an outcome that doesn’t have some element of that in. But I don’t want to lock the hands of our negotiators. We are genuinely in good faith trying to find a solution to this.”

He also confirmed Labour had begun selecting candidates for European elections in May, which the UK would have to hold if an extension was agreed.

He said: “Yesterday, as an emergency procedure, the Labour party opened its timetable to select European parliamentary candidates, because it seems to me we are going to go beyond the deadline there.”