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Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve taken a number of dives into the passing data created by Ryan Stimson and the passing project. You can find those pieces here, here, and here. The extremely quick sum-up is that shot assists (pass leading directly to a Corsi) are repeatable and importantly linked to the creation of offense. You can breathe a sigh of relief in knowing that setup passes are a real player skill that can help teams score more goals.

With the theory side squared away, we can take Stimson’s passing project data for a walk and examine the passing work done by NHL teams.

In his article for Hockey Graphs, Stimson explored the neutral zone tactics of the Dallas Stars. He used the passing data to drive the observation that the Stars’ puck-moving success in the neutral zone is fueled by activating defensemen to join the rush:

In this specific example, Stimson notes that Penny Oleksiak’s brother Jamie Oleksiak (not a noted NHL point-producing defenseman) helps to push the pace of play through the neutral zone. It’s no surprise that Lindy Ruff’s activation of his defense corps has led the group to post very strong shot assist totals relative to the rest of the NHL.

In one of the pieces I wrote this week, I focused on the Anaheim Ducks, another team that activates its defense corps, driving strong shot assist rates.

I noted that Ducks’ defender Shea Theodore (see yellow arrow) jumped deep into the offensive zone, sending Corey Perry a shot assist that led to a tap-in goal for Perry. This example was interesting because the Ducks were already winning 3-0 in the first period against an overmatched Stars squad. If head coach Bruce Boudreau permitted his defensemen to jump into the offensive zone with such a strong lead, it’s safe to say that the Ducks defenders were green-lighted to join the attack.

With that groundwork laid, let’s take a look at two teams that featured defensemen who have since relocated — the New Jersey Devils and the Montreal Canadiens.

*to interact with the viz, click here.

Some teams generate good shot assist rates from their defense — Anaheim, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York Islanders, and Winnipeg stand out. The Montreal Canadiens deserve to be considered at the bottom of this tier of strong passing defense groups. Their average defenseman posted ~6 shot assists per hour (league average is ~5), with a high-end performer (Subban, sorry Habs fans) and a high bottom-end (Emelin, lowest on the team but above NHL average for defensemen).

The New Jersey Devils couldn’t be more different. Their top two defenders in this stat (Schlemko and Greene) were right around league average. The rest of the unit (including the departed Adam Larsson) were notably below league average. The Devils’ best shot assist defensemen would be among the Canadiens’ worst.

Let’s take a look at the matchup between these two teams with a focus on results from Subban and Larsson (remembering that shot assist performance is quite repeatable, so we’ll have a sense of what each of these two will provide in their new homes in 2016-17).

The game starts off tentatively. In the first still, Markov pinches down to exert a little puck pressure. No Canadiens defender goes any deeper than this in the first handful of minutes.

For the Devils, Merrill is the most aggressive early on. He circles near the top of the faceoff circles before retreating to a neutral, non-threatening outlet posture.

The Canadiens’ approach becomes more aggressive as the period goes on. The Devils’ approach does not.

Let’s keep moving.

Emelin, surprisingly an above average provider of shot assists, feeds Mark Barberio with a cross-ice pass to start this sequence. The underrated and offensive-minded Barberio could fire a low percentage shot on goal (further padding Emelin’s shot assists rate) but instead opts for a risky feed to a streaking Paul Byron. The pass fails but that doesn’t prevent Barberio from seeking out creative, risky setup passes later in the game.

This play may cause Canadiens fans a little heartbreak.

After winning a puck battle in the defensive zone, Subban identifies a streaking Pacioretty. Subban’s on his backhand, so he flips an alley-oop pass that drops onto Pacioretty’s stick and creates a breakaway chance. Pacioretty bobbles the puck here but this sequence shows Subban’s creativity, vision, and ability to create shots for his teammates.

After several minutes of timid play by the New Jersey blue liners, Adam Larsson gathers the puck at the right point to start this sequence. First, Larsson decides against swinging the puck to his open partner. Instead, Larsson decides to walk the blue line, searching for a lane to move the puck. He doesn’t find a lane (most Devils forwards have drifted high up in the offensive zone) and Larsson, now under pressue, gently lifts the puck into the corner, surrendering possession.

Not a strong play here, but it’s just one play. Let’s give Larsson another look a little later in the period:

A couple of minutes later, Larsson pinches along the boards, recovering the puck at the half-wall. Larsson is under moderate pressure, so he must choose between three options quickly — a low pass to his teammate in the corner, a short pass to an open forward on the faceoff dot (who isn’t very prepared to receive the puck) or a fairly risky pass into the slot for an open forward in great scoring position.

Larsson decides on a fourth option here, sending the puck into the corner. Plays like this help add context to Larsson’s ~3.5 ShA/60 rate, which ranks among the bottom of NHL defensemen (near Mark Borowiecki and Nate Prosser). Offense-creating options weren’t easy here but Larsson’s low percentage decision thwarted any chance of generating a shot on goal.

While Larsson sticks to a fairly passive offensive approach in this matchup, Subban continues to flash the aggressive offensive zone postures that allow him to create shot assists (and his own shots) throughout the rest of the game. Subban routinely pinches down to the faceoff dots (on both sides of the ice) and facilitates offensive chances with strong passing and by making himself available as an outlet:

On this play, Subban scoops up the puck high in the defensive zone and charges ahead into neutral ice. He swings the puck to a streaking forward but remains involved in the rush. By the second still, Subban has moved into open space, fully prepared to launch a one-timer. Subban makes it most of the way to the slot before stopping up, remaining available as a linkup throughout the sequence.

Subban doesn’t register a shot assist here but it is important to remember that league-leading defenseman Erik Karlsson posts ~11 ShA60 at even-strength, which works out to only four shot assists per game. We expect Subban to create three shot assists per game (and Larsson to muster one per game, maybe). Subban’s willingness to pinch, join the rush, and remain available as a threatening offensive outlet in the zone put the former Canadiens defender in a position to generate shot assists.

Larsson’s passiveness in this game is reflected in his poor season-long totals. He prefers to slide the puck deep into the zone, rather than looking to adopt more threatening postures.

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So, what have we learned.

First, Stimson’s data set offers a new and interesting perspectives for breaking down game film. For example, the Devils’ defense corps posted poor shot assist totals last season and game-viewing helps to explain why. New Jersey’s defensemen avoided engaging in offensive chances. Understanding how important shot assists are to boosting shooting percentages and generating goals, this lack of engagement from the backend is a problem.

Second, we’ve added some glimpses into the passing ability of two defensemen that were traded this summer. When newest-Oilers defenseman Adam Larsson did handle the puck on offense, he showed a tendency to pick passive plays. This tendency seemed to plague him throughout the year as he sputtered to a poor shot assist rate.

Subban, on the other hand, offered a look at the kind of creativity and skill he’ll bring to the Nashville Predators. He was one of the NHL’s best passing defensemen. This was reflected in Stimson’s passing project data and in our quick view of his on-ice play.

There’s lots more to do here. For now, I’ll close with a call for volunteers. Check in with Ryan if you think you would like to track some (or lots!) of games next season.

Using NHL passing data to break down Devils, Canadiens defensemen