This is part two of our three part series previewing the race for the 2016 NL East crown between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals. We will be releasing a part every few days in the lead up to pitchers and catchers reporting, and this is part two: The Outfield.

If you missed the first part of our preview, make sure to read that here.

Left Field:

Mets:

22-year old left fielder Michael Conforto was the first piece the Mets added in 2015 to spur their offensive resurgence, when they called him up from Double-A Binghamton. He hit .270 with an OBP of .335, an OPS of .801 (132 OPS+), and nine home runs in only 56 games. Despite the small sample size, this is an impressive stat line for any young player, or a player of any age but it is even more so for Conforto. He was drafted in 2014, meaning that he never even played a full season in the minor leagues. As he will be only 23 heading into the 2016 season, improvement should be expected. On top of his strong bat, Conforto graded out as an above-average left fielder, despite minor league scouting reports stating that he was a below average defensive left fielder.

It should be noted that Yoenis Cespedes is expected to play left field, where he is a Gold Glove-caliber player, in some games against lefties as the Mets rotate their four outfielders, but more on him later.

Nats:

In 2013 and 2014, Jayson Werth produced back-to-back top-20 NL MVP years and two NL player of the months, but unfortunately for the Nationals, those seasons feel like an eternity ago after his disastrous 2015. He played in a mere 88 games, a one year aberration likely indicative of a larger trend, as he is entering his age-37 season. Though many of his struggles can be attributed to shoulder and wrist injuries that left him without much power, his .685 OPS was atrocious at a premier offensive position. Furthermore, his defense has deteriorated from an elite outfield arm with solid range to something resembling 90-year old owner Ted Lerner roaming the outfield. However, if Werth does return to anything near his 2013-2014 form, the Nats will benefit from an elite middle of the order bat. Over that period, he hit .304 with an OBP of .396 and an OPS of .887 (144 OPS+). Werth also added value over those years with his excellent, if rarely exhibited, base-stealing abilities, as he stole 19 bases on 21 attempts.

If Werth’s 2016 performance is more in line with last year’s or if he misses a large chunk of the season again, Michael A. Taylor will replace him in the lineup. Taylor plays an above-average center field, and an excellent left field, but the question with him is if he can finally begin to reproduce his excellent minor league numbers at the major league level. In 2015, he struck out far too often. He was punched out 158 times-a third of his at-bats and good for 5th in the National League. Taylor did hit 14 home runs, including one of the longest of the season at 492 feet, but had very few other extra base hits for someone with his power and his speed. Such qualities indicate that his offensive woes stemmed from trying to hit the ball too hard all the time, something the revamped coaching staff will be sure to address. Taylor will only be 25 in 2016, and definitely should be able to learn how to pick his spots better when swinging for the fences, which could improve his offensive game dramatically. Though likely not indicative of future performance, it should be noted that Taylor managed an impressive .897 OPS with RISP, an area in which the rest of the ball club struggled.

Overview:

The Mets hace a minor advantage in the first category of our outfield review, as the aging Werth carries too much risk of both injury and underperformance. His defensive value also represents a downgrade from what the Mets can expect out of Conforto. Although Taylor is a better defensive option than Conforto, his value in 2016 hinges on whether he can make significant changes to his approach at the plate, which is a big if. Both teams have major upside at the position, as Taylor could take the next step and Werth could return to his 2013-14 ways but the 23-year old Conforto seems more poised to realize his potential.

Center Field:

Mets:

One player’s decision earlier in the offseason drastically changes the look of this preview, and the race for the NL East. That player was Yoenis Cespedes, who was faced with the decision to either sign with the Mets for $75 million/3yrs (with a one year player option) or the Nats for $100 million/5yrs. In January, we discussed whether the Nats should even go after Cespedes. In the end, it didn’t matter as Cespedes took fewer years but higher AAV to stay in New York. What he would have brought to either team and will bring to the Mets is not, in all likelihood the blistering tear he went on after the 2015 trade deadline, but rather a pace more akin to the rest of his MLB career. From 2012 to 2014, he hit .263 with a .316 OBP and a .780 OPS (116 OPS+). His ISO (isolated power) of .401 showed the great power that he exhibited as a star in Cuba, but the only thing keeping his OPS down is his relative lack of on-base skills. During that timeframe, he also averaged 24 home runs, but considering the fact that he hit 35 in 2015, some amount in the range of 25 to 30 should be expected. He plays a slightly below-average defensive center field, but a combination of an elite bat for the position and one of the league’s best arms more than makes up for it.

When Cespedes shifts over to left field against some lefties, Juan Lagares will replace him in center field. Although he had a down year defensively in 2015, he is still considered by most to be an elite center fielder, as long as he goes all-out like he did before having some arm issues that started late in the 2014 season. Although he is a below average batter, his splits against lefties are above-average, although still with almost negligible home run power.

Nats:

After three years of Denard Span, the Nationals acquired Ben Revere this offseason in the hopes that he can match Span’s production without the injury issues. Revere is a slightly below-average statistical hitter, putting up an OPS+ of 95 since the beginning of the 2013 season. However, he should be a great fit for a Nationals lineup in need of a leadoff hitter, contact, and speed-all of which Revere provides. Despite a lack of walks, he has managed an above-average OPS of .334 over the last three years due to batting averages over .305. His good speed allows him to be an excellent base stealer, as he has averaged 34 stolen bases in the same timespan with a success rate of 82 percent. He may be replaced in the leadoff spot by Trea Turner at some point, but he will still provide good security if Turner struggles. Defensively, he will not quite match Denard Span’s production in center field, but he should not be too far off and is plenty good enough to man the most important outfield position.

If Revere gets injured and is out for an extended period of time, Michael A. Taylor, who, as mentioned above, plays an above-average center field will again be the replacement. He will most likely be a defensive improvement over Revere, but an worse offensive option. A Revere injury, though, seems unlikely as he has played over 150 games in each of the past two seasons.

Overview:

The Mets clearly win this category. Both Revere and Taylor are better defensively and will be solid options for the Nats but Cespedes blows them both out of the water at the plate as he has been an all-star calibre player since arriving in MLB. The Nats options are not bad but Cespedes would have to be either incompetent in the field or have by far the worst season of his career to even this gap.

Right Field:

Mets:

Curtis Granderson reinvented himself as a player in 2015, using a more patient approach at the plate and taking on the role of leadoff man for the Mets. Through this new approach, he hit for a higher average (.259), had a higher OBP (.364), and had a higher OPS+ (129) than he’s had since 2011, while hitting 26 home runs, compared to the 20 he had in his first year in Queens. Although he will be 35 in 2016, it would be unexpected for him to have injury issues, since he’s played at least 136 games in every one of his full major league seasons except for 2013, when he suffered a freak broken arm while getting hit by a pitch. Despite a below-average throwing arm, Granderson was a 2015 Gold Glove finalist, showing that even at 35 he can still get it done in the field.

Nats:

Bryce Harper is the best, or second best, player in the major leagues, depending on how you feel about Mike Trout. He was the MVP for a reason, and had one of the most prolific seasons in baseball history, finally living up to his #1 overall draft pick. He had the highest WAR (9.9) of any position player since Barry Bonds in 1993, the highest OBP (.460) since Chipper Jones in 2008, and the highest OPS (1.109) since Albert Pujols in 2008 despite playing in a golden age of pitching. He flirted with an OPS+ of 200 that would have would have been literally twice as good as the average player before finishing at 195-the best non-steroid number since Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt in 1981. On top of this, he has developed into an excellent right fielder as he gets used to a position he never played in amateur ball. Most impressively, he is only 23 years old, still younger than many great players when they enter the league, including last year’s NL rookie of the year, Kris Bryant.

Overview:

The Nats win this category because while Granderson is a good player, but there is no beating the reigning MVP, who put up insane numbers even by MVP standards. Harper is the best player on either team and his presence completely changes the dynamic of this division in a way no other player does.

Bench:

Mets:

CF Juan Lagares

OF Alejandro De Aza

The Mets have a very good outfield bench. Juan Lagares will start against a good amount of lefties, and will provide a good option off the bench late in games, either to hit a lefty reliever, or to come in as a defensive replacement. De Aza will mainly be used as a pinch hitter against righties, and will get spot-starts against them, as Lagares does not hit well against right-handed pitchers. De Aza, on the other hand, is a player who should hit exclusively against right-handed pitching. In 2015 against righties, he had an OPS+ of 121, which is well above average, especially for a bench player, but against lefties his OPS+ was only 32, which is abysmal. Also, at this point in his career, he is not a very good defensive player. Luckily for the Mets, the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes means De Aza will not be misplaced into a center field platoon. Despite his faults, he is a very good fifth outfielder, and he could end up playing an important role for the team, especially if injuries arise.

Nats:

OF Michael A. Taylor

OF Matt den Dekker (den Dekker’s inclusion on the roster would mean 1B/OF Tyler Moore would probably not make the team)

Between den Dekker and Taylor, Taylor will most likely get more playing time based on the 138 games he played last season. However, that could change if den Dekker plays like he did towards the end of the regular season. Taylor’s pros and cons are discussed above under left field. Den Dekker showed a very different type of offensive game last year than he did with the Mets in 2014. He hit about the same average, but with the Nats he hit with considerably more power, hitting five home runs in just 99 at bats, compared to none with the Mets in 2014. However, he got on base at only a .315 clip in 2015 compared to .315 in 2014. And although teams love their high OBP guys, the revamped 2015 den Dekker was the better hitter, with an OPS+ of 112 compared to 94 in 2014. It’s hard to believe him hitting this well over a complete season, but he could come somewhere close to it. For once, this is a poised to be good outfield bench, especially defensively, but unless Taylor makes large leaps at the plate, they will have no good option to hit lefties. Clint Robinson could also get some time in the outfield but he is primarily a first baseman and was discussed in depth in part one of this preview.

Overview:

The outfield bench is a push, because the Nats’ bench has two plus defenders, while the Mets have only Juan Lagares. However, the Mets bench is more situated to hit both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, allowing them to spot-start against either more effectively.

These two outfields will likely have similar production in 2016, with the Mets’ the more likely of the two to come out on top. Althouh the Nats have by far the best player, the Mets’ advantages in left and center could push them over the top.

Check back in a few days for the final part of our preview, focusing on the pitching staffs.

All stats are via Baseball Reference, unless stated otherwise.