By John Jackson Miller

(reprinted with permission from Comichron)

There have been many Black Panther series over the years from Marvel, but the title has never been one to appear near the top of the sales charts. In April, the new series from Ta-Nahisi Coatesand Brian Stelfreeze not only was the comic book most ordered by comics shops in North America, but with sales of more than 253,000 copies, Black Panther #1 is easily the best-selling issue of the year thus far. Click to see the sales estimates for comics ordered in April 2016.

As we mentioned here on Friday, the overall sales reported by Diamond Comic Distributors reflect a considerable drop, not all of which can be attributed to the fact that last April was the highest volume month of the year — and had one more week to boot. One of the elements playing a role, as noted there, is the fact that the pace of new comic book releases has slowed in 2016.

We can see this looking at the first four months of each year, which include an equivalent number of shipping weeks (17):

NEW COMIC BOOKS RELEASED

January through April 2015: 1,907

January through April 2016: 1,843

That’s a drop of a little more than 3%, which doesn’t sound that significant. Yet the fact is that the cutbacks have disproportionately come from the publishers whose titles sell better. Here’s what it looks like if you just look at the Top Seven Publishers (Marvel, DC, Image, IDW, Dark Horse, Boom, and Dynamite):

NEW COMIC BOOKS RELEASED (Top 7 publishers)

January through April 2015: 1,500

January through April 2016: 1,317

That’s a much larger drop, of more than 12%. The number of new releases from Diamond from non-Top 7 publishers is up 29% — but since those publishers titles sell far less on average, they don’t come close to making up the difference.

Digging down, we actually see that the slowdown in new comics releases is greater with some publishers than others



CHANGE in number of NEW COMICS RELEASED

in January-April 2016 by publisher:

2015 2016 Change Marvel 325 340 5% DC 353 312 -12% Image 248 221 -11% IDW 186 171 -8% Dark Horse 114 111 -3% Dynamite 128 67 -48% Boom 146 95 -35% Other 407 526 29% TOTAL 1907 1843 -3%

While Marvel actually published about an additional comic book a week, Dynamite cut its new comics offerings nearly in half, and Boom reduced its release pace by more than a third. Every other publisher in the top seven also cut back, but by smaller numbers. Remember, this is an exactly equivalent time period: seventeen weeks.

We see in looking at graphic novels, however, that several of those publishers have in fact redirected attention towards graphic novels this year.

CHANGE in number of NEW GRAPHIC NOVELS RELEASED

in January-April 2016 by publisher:

2015 2016 Change Marvel 131 148 +13% DC 99 120 +21% Image 64 60 -6% IDW 83 90 +8% Dark Horse 74 63 -15% Dynamite 22 19 -14% Boom 26 44 +69% Other 562 675 +20% TOTAL 1061 1219 +15%

That’s right: the number of new graphic novel releases is up 15% overall year-to-date, and Boom has increased its number of releases by 69%. DC, Marvel, and the collected publishers under seventh place are up double digits. And that would seem to track with the story of the year, so far: comic book dollars are down nearly 8%, while graphic novel dollars are up close to 5%.

The problem is simply that since retailers spend two of every three dollars on comic books, a slowdown in that category erases a percentage increase of twice the size on the graphic novel side. And since it was the larger publishers that were releasing more comics last year, the absence of those issues has an outsized effect.



So supply appears to be a factor; regression analysis might find out how much (a project for another day). It should be noted that smaller release slates aren’t necessarily a bad thing, if the result is that the publishers and retailers are earning more profit per title; figuring out how much the comics market will absorb is the name of the game. It does appear that in 2016, at least thus far, the six publishers after Marvel in the charts have been a little more (and in some cases, a lot more) conservative in their periodical releases.

This month’s 300th place title sold 4,309 copies, which is the highest figure seen so far this year in that slot; that seems to suggest that the volumes on that smaller number of titles are hanging in there, at least this month. Click to see the sales of 300th-place titles across time.

The aggregate changes are as follows:

TOP 300 COMICS UNIT SALES

April 2016: 6.69 million copies

Versus 1 year ago this month: -20%

Versus 5 years ago this month: +25%

Versus 10 years ago this month: +7%

Versus 15 years ago this month: +39%

YEAR TO DATE: 25.14 million copies, -14% vs. 2015, +21% vs. 2011, +1% vs. 2006, +26% vs. 2001

ALL COMICS UNIT SALES

April 2016 versus one year ago this month: -22.28%

YEAR TO DATE: -13.05%

TOP 300 COMICS DOLLAR SALES

April 2016: $27.57 million

Versus 1 year ago this month: -18%

Versus 5 years ago this month: +45%

Versus 10 years ago this month: +41%

Versus 15 years ago this month: +111%

YEAR TO DATE: $100.37 million, -11% vs. 2015, +38% vs. 2011, +32% vs. 2006, +84% vs. 2001

ALL COMICS DOLLAR SALES

April 2016 versus one year ago this month: -18.05%

YEAR TO DATE: -7.84%

TOP 300 TRADE PAPERBACK DOLLAR SALES

April 2016: $8.2 million

Versus 1 year ago this month: -9%

Versus 5 years ago this month: +54%

Versus 10 years ago this month, just the Top 100 vs. the Top 100: +37%

Versus 15 years ago this month, just the Top 25 vs. the Top 25: +34%

YEAR TO DATE: $32.69 million, +17% vs. 2015

ALL TRADE PAPERBACK SALES

April 2016 versus one year ago this month: -11.99%

YEAR TO DATE: +4.87%

TOP 300 COMICS + TOP 300 TRADE PAPERBACK DOLLAR SALES

April 2016: $35.77 million

Versus 1 year ago this month: -16%

Versus 5 years ago this month: +33%

Versus 10 years ago this month, counting just the Top 100 TPBs: +20%

Versus 15 years ago this month, counting just the Top 25 TPBs: +111%

YEAR TO DATE: $132.44 million, -6% vs. 2015

ALL COMICS AND TRADE PAPERBACK SALES

April 2016 versus one year ago this month: -16.19%

YEAR TO DATE: -4.06%

OVERALL DIAMOND SALES (including all comics, trades, and magazines)

April 2016: approximately $47.54 million (subject to revision)

Versus 1 year ago this month: -16%

Versus 5 years ago this month: +52%

Versus 10 years ago this month: +57%

YEAR TO DATE: $177.17 million, -4 vs. 2015

RELEASES

New comic books released: 420

New graphic novels released: 304

New magazines released: 30

All new releases: 754

As noted, the average comic book in the Top 300 cost $3.93; the average comic book retailers ordered cost $4.12. The median and most common price for comics offered was $3.99. Click to see comics prices across time.