First impressions count.

Users judge a site just within a fraction of a second. Many hit the back button before reading the first line of text. And of the few that decide to stick around for a minute and give you a chance, there's no guarantee they'll ever return.

HCI gives us a good understanding of how users make snap decisions about site design. But how do users decide whether or not to join a community?

According to social psychologists, users judge communities along four dimensions:

1) What is the current benefit of this community to me?

2) What is the expected future benefit of this community?

3) How much do I like the individuals within the group? (Common Bond Theory)

4) How much do I like the group as a whole? (Common Identity Theory)

Because newcomers by definition have no prior experience with the community, their decision to join is based primarily on the expected future benefits of joining. Increasing the expected future benefit is just selling. Good copy, good screencast, good screenshots, etc.

But let's assume you've been reading your Seth Godin so you're already up on the latest marketing techniques. What else can we do?

I recently saw Bob Kraut present a paper on the mediating variables for Usenet participation. The study looked at how getting a reply affected the chance that a poster would return and post again.

For oldtimers who received no replies, 84% posted again. For oldtimers who did receive a reply, 86% posted again. For newcomers who received no replies, 16% posted again.

What's startling though is the effect getting a reply had on newcomers posting their first time. When looking only at newcomers, getting a reply increased their likelihood of posting again from 16% to 26%. That's a 62% increase!

Apparently, getting a reply increases satisfaction in all four dimensions. It increases current benefit, it increases expected future benefit, it creates a common bond with the individuals who posted replies, and it increases identification with the group as a whole.

Now, translating patterns in Usenet posts into practical design advice isn't an exact science. But if I were launching a new website, here's what I'd do. Instead of hiding the Feedback link in the upper right hand corner, I'd place a form right on the main page. A big form. And I'd bend over backwards to get people to use it.

Bugs, ideas, comments, observations, advice, etc. It doesn't matter. Why? Simple.

Because by emailing you, your visitors are giving you permission to send a reply. A reply that, if crafted correctly, could dramatically increase that person's chances of becoming a full-fledged member of the community.

Now, I can't guarantee this will actually double your traffic. But all the research says that people will be more likely to continue to participate in online communities if their early interactions are successful. And what could make one feel more successful than getting a friendly personal letter from the CEO?

And by personal I mean personal. No form letters allowed. Yeah, you might have to stay awake for a week straight. But so what. If it works, it's worth it.

After all, the only cost of trying is two lines of code and a box of Modafinil.

Sources:

Kraut, R., Wang, X., Butler, B., Joyce, E., & Burke, M. (Under review). Building commitment and contribution in online groups through social interaction. Unpublished manuscript.

Ren, Y., Kraut, R. E., & Kiesler, S. (In press). Applying common identity and bond theory to the design of online communities. Organizational Studies. [PDF]