It suggests voters are now genuinely considering throwing out a first-term federal government - an event that has not occurred since the dark days of the 1930s depression. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on Friday. Credit:Andrew Meares

In an apparent repudiation of the Coalition's increasingly strident claim that Bill Shorten is the most anti-business Labor leader in living memory for opposing generous company tax cuts, Labor's primary vote has in fact begun edging up. It now stands at 36 - two points higher than a fortnight ago - which is within the 2.7 per cent margin of error - to be just 6 points behind the Coalition on 42. However, the Coalition will take heart from the strength of its support in Queensland where many marginal seats are located and where, notwithstanding a higher margin of error in state-by-state numbers, its primary support is 48 per cent to Labor's 35. Insiders also claim the Coalition can hang on against a substantial nationwide swing in the individual seats that matter, through targeted campaigning and the value of incumbency.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on the campaign trail on Friday. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen The nationwide phone survey of 1359 residents taken from Tuesday to Thursday , put Labor ahead on 51-49 after preferences, and showed Mr Turnbull's approval continuing to slide towards negative territory after record highs last November. His net approval now stands at plus-3 points - barely inside positive territory - against Bill Shorten who is unchanged on minus-6. The two-point lead to Labor was the same whether calculated from preferences as flowed in 2013, or on the basis of respondents' answers about which party would receive that second preference. Mr Turnbull's net approval had been as high as plus-51 and plus-53 per cent in October and November respectively, shortly after replacing Mr Abbott, and was plus 10 per cent just two weeks ago. Forty-five per cent of voters approve of the way Mr Turnbull is performing, against 42 per cent who disapprove. His disapproval rating jumped four points in a fortnight while his approval worsened by three.

For Mr Shorten, those numbers are 41 per cent who approve against 47 per cent who disapprove. Pollster Jessica Elgood noted that these figures are "better than those of Tony Abbott at the same point in the last federal election" in which Mr Abbott went on to win easily. Mr Turnbull still leads on the separate head-to-head index of preferred prime minister 49-31. Interestingly, 55 per cent of respondents expect the Coalition to be returned to office - an indication perhaps of the tone and direction of conversations between respondents, and their immediate social groupings, in the period leading up to being surveyed. The poll was taken in the days following the lacklustre leaders' debate last Sunday at the National Press Club in Canberra and as Mr Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison moved to step up the pressure on Labor for opposing company tax cuts in favour of more spending on health and education.

The survey period also covered the several days of clumsy messaging by senior Coalition figures such as deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop, over the superannuation tax increases unveiled in the May budget. If replicated at the election on July 2, the 49 per cent return for the Coalition would be the equivalent of a massive 4.5 per cent swing against it - enough to see it bundled from office in a humiliating defeat costing it as many as 23 seats. Mr Turnbull continued to double-down on the superannuation changes on Friday, pleading with critics, many of whom are within his own support base, to "get real", noting that the proposal to apply a new 15 per cent tax on superannuation account earnings in the transition to retirement phase for over 55s, was extremely low. "Our changes to superannuation are fair, they make the superannuation system more sustainable," he said in Adelaide.

"Yes it is true that some people, around 4 per cent, either on very high incomes or who have very large super balances, will not have as generous a tax concession as they used to have. "Let's get real. Super remains enormously generous ... remember, I'm the Prime Minister for all Australians." His comments came as one of the more supportive Coalition MPs grumbled that the government's super changes had been inadequately explained. Another poll released on Friday night, a Seven News ReachTEL poll, put support for the majors at 50-50. Campaigning in Tasmania, where Labor is eyeing possible gains, Mr Shorten refused to apologise for opposing business tax cuts describing them as unaffordable.

Asked about his previous support for their economy-wide benefits, Mr Shorten said: "There's no comparison between 2011 and now ... I choose Medicare, I choose to stand up for pensioners, I choose to stand up for well-funded schools. I do not choose a $50 billion tax giveaway and also, the $50 billion tax giveaway will have very little, if negligible impact upon jobs." Loading Follow us on Twitter

