March 12th, 2020

First Cow was one of two films in the $10,000 club earning an average of $20,331 in four theaters. The Booksellers was the only other member of the $10,000 club opening with $15,794 in its lone theater. More...



March 11th, 2020

Itâs another terrible week on the home market. There are a couple of Oscar-bait releases to talk about, but neither are Pick of the Week contenders, at least in my opinion. There are no movies that are anything more than midlevel hits. The best new release of the week, at least in my opinion, is Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Ultimate Collectorâs Edition Blu-ray. More...



March 10th, 2020

Is Uncut Gems busted Oscar-bait? It seems strange to describe an Adam Sandler movie as Oscar-bait, but the film was released by A24 and given their track record in the few short years theyâve been around, it is not unfair to say it was made to win Oscars. That didnât happen. On the other hand, it did just get to $50 million before the weekend, which is amazing for a limited release. Is the film as good as its box office numbers? Did it deserve to find more success during Awards Season? More...



December 31st, 2019

The last weekend of the year had some good news and some bad news. Unfortunately, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was part of the later, as it fell 59% to $72.39 million over the weekend. However, this was still a dominate performance at the box office, earning more than the next three films combined. It helped the overall weekend remained strong at $197 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 5.0% higher than the same weekend last year. Furthermore, 2019 cut the deficit with 2018 by about $100 million since The Rise of Skywalker came out and now it is fighting with 2016 to be the second biggest year at the box office of all time. It is true that the year is still behind 2018 by a massive 4.5% / $520 million at $11.04 billion to $11.56 billion, but not being able to maintain a record pace for two years in a row is hardly a serious concern. Even if you look at ticket sales and take into account inflation, then 2019 was a reasonably good year, as it isnât too far behind 2017 and hardly the worst weâve seen in the past decade. There are reasons to be optimistic going into 2020. More...



December 29th, 2019

The weekend isnât looking good for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, as it is falling a lot faster than I expected. If estimates hold, it will fall 59% to $72.0 million over the weekend for a running tally of $361.8 million after two weeks of release. However, this is still a massive amount of money. It is already the seventh-biggest hit released in 2019, and is on pace to earn third place on that chart, maybe even second. Internationally, the film added $94.3 million in 52 markets for a running tally of $363.0 million internationally and $724.8 million worldwide. Thatâs without any earnings from South Korea, where it will debut in a couple of weeks. It should have no trouble getting to $1 billion worldwide by the end of its run, but most were expecting a lot more than that. It is yet another profitable disappointâand we saw too many of those in 2019. More...



December 28th, 2019

The last weekend of the year began on Friday and thereâs some good news and some bad news. Bad news, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell faster than expected, down 71% from its opening Friday to just $26.23 million. Granted, this was still more than enough to blow past the $300 million mark in just eight days, putting it in a tie for fifth fastest to reach $300 million. The film will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and it is projected to earn $76 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $366 million. If it ended there, then the film could still break even, eventually. In reality, the film has two more weeks of no serious competition, so it will have no trouble getting past a couple of more major milestones before it is done it box office run. More...



December 27th, 2019

The weekend after Christmas tends to be even bigger at the box office than the weekend before Christmas, as people are no longer rushing around making sure they have their last minute gifts and food for Christmas dinner. That said, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will likely still fall, as monster blockbusters rarely have extremely long legs. The other sophomore films opened so poorly that I can image theater owners will be pushing them to the smallest screens, perhaps with limited showings. As for the new releases, none of Little Women, Uncut Gems, or Spies in Disguise got off to a great start on Christmas Day, but none of them bombed either. This weekend last year, Aquaman led the way with over $52 million, while the top three earned almost exactly $100 million. This year, The Rise of Skywalker could earn $100 million all by itself. The year will end on a very positive note. More...



December 24th, 2019

Itâs a Tuesday Christmas Eve, and that makes for a challenging situation for box office prognosticators, with Wednesday releases adding to the difficulties. Because of that, I am going to combine the weekend predictions and the limited releases into one shorter column. I will talk about all new releases / expansions for this week without going into detail over their box office chances. Look for a more comprehensive prediction column Thursday as usual. The biggest of the Christmas Day releases should be Little Women; however, that film is making big push for awards, and will likely have very long legs as a result. Conversely, Spies in Disguise is a rare family film opening on Christmas, which makes it a real wild card. More...



December 24th, 2019

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker recovered a little bit from Sundayâs estimates to earn $177.38 million for the full weekend. While it is always better to beat estimates, this isnât a large enough margin to really matter in the long run. Its reviews and its B plus are fine for a blockbuster, but arenât going to help draw in more moviegoers, unlike The Last Jedi. Internationally, the film made $197.7 million in 52 markets to give it a worldwide opening of $375.1 million. It enjoyed the third-biggest weekend in December, the third-biggest day in December, and it is already the 21st biggest worldwide release in 2019. Granted, most thought it would open faster than this, but the film is, at worst, a profitable disappointment. More...



December 19th, 2019

Uncut Gems led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $107,448 in five theaters. The only film to earn a better average this year was Parasite; however, while that film earned an average of $131,072 during its opening weekend, it was playing in only three theaters, so Uncut Gems arguably has the better opening. Bombshell also had an explosive opening with an average of $79,789 in four theaters. The number one film of the weekend, Jumanji: The Next Level, was next with an average of $14,017. The final film in the $10,000 club was A Hidden Life with an average of $10,077 in five theaters. More...



December 13th, 2019

We are getting really close to the cut-off for Oscar qualifying, which means there are a number of films hoping to win Oscars that are coming out in the next few weeks. This also means if a film isnât gunning for Oscars, like Bombshell or Uncut Gems, it will likely fall between the cracks. That said, this is where the VOD market can come to the rescue for films like After Class, Code 8, or Colewell. More...



November 21st, 2019

The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced and thus the 2020 Awards Season begins. There are two changes to this yearâs coverage of Awards Season. Firstly, weâre going back to using the year the awards are handed out and not the year the movie came out, even though the latter makes so much more sense. We are doing this, because every one else does this and being accurate takes a back seat to being easily understood. Secondly, since the Independent Spirit Awards are not particularly good indicators of Oscar success, we are just going to do summaries and not a full list of nominees. More...

