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So, for the Edmonton Oilers, it means that while Drake Caggiula was able to make a reasonable impact in the league right away, he may also not get much better than he already is. The Oilers will be hoping that Caggiula is the outlier.

But history suggests to us otherwise.

Offence

There are are those that would have Drake Caggiula be on his way from Oil Country.

Well, at 13 goals scored in 2017-18, Caggiula is the highest scoring winger that remains on the roster (Pat Maroon had 14). Having already sent away Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle for a lesser return on offence, Peter Chiarelli can not afford to do the very same with The Drake.

Especially in a cap era, productive yet bargain wingers are an essential part of building a roster. For comparison-sake, Drake Caggiula scored at a rate of 9.6 goals per $1M in 2017-18. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was 4.0/$1M. As such, I fully expect the pending RFA to be qualified and re-signed by the end of Summer.

After all, Caggiula has good wheels, nice offensive instincts, a deceptive release, and also plays with more than a little grit (147 hits). All that may sound can’t miss, but I’d submit there are actually a lot of questions that Drake Caggiula’s play has yet to answer.

For one, consider his shooting percentage last season, 12.5%. While not wildly out of line with what a good NHL winger will fire away at, it was also 5 full percentage points higher than in his rookie season. Which is “real”?

Caggiula did shoot a bit more, but also played 7 more games, and so his rate was actually flat. And while his goal scoring showed a nice spike, his point totals only advanced by two, from 18 to 20. And while Caggiula often played 3rd and 4th line roles, he also received regular glimpses in the Top 6.