When The POLITICO Caucus debuted in mid-February of last year, a majority of Iowans said Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker would win the caucuses if they were held then. Now, nearly a year later, roughly the same number — 60 percent — see Donald Trump as the winner when the votes are counted Monday night.

Few on either side doubted last February that Hillary Clinton would win Iowa. Now, Democrats still expect her to win — but Republicans don’t.

That’s according to members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of influential strategists, operatives and activists in Iowa and the three other states that will cast ballots later in February: New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.


The final survey before Iowans cast the first ballots in the 2016 contest, the new insiders poll represents the culmination of a nearly yearlong project. Over that period, Republican and Democratic insiders have seen the race turned upside down and their expectations for candidates like Walker and Jeb Bush dashed. In recent weeks, Ted Cruz was viewed as the favorite to win the caucuses only to be supplanted by Trump in the last poll before Iowa votes.

“Donald Trump has broken every rule of the Iowa caucus process,” said one South Carolina Republican, who, like all the respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “Yet it will continue to pay off.”

The results just among Iowa Republicans were virtually identical to those in the other three early states: A majority see Trump as the most likely winner, with a significant number still believing Cruz will emerge in first.

A number of Republicans said Cruz’s organization would catapult the Texas senator over Trump.

“The Cruz ground game will carry him across the finish line with Trump in a close second,” said an Iowa Republican.

But even those Republicans who picked Cruz to finish on top concede he has slipped — not just in recent weeks, but in the past few days as well. One Iowa GOP insider cited a poor debate performance last week and controversial Cruz get-out-the-vote mailers that resembled official documents accusing individuals of a “VOTING VIOLATION” for past non-participation.

“I think it is nearly too close to call with Trump and Cruz,” said one Iowa Republican who picked Cruz. “I have a better handle on the Cruz ground game. Not sure what Trump has. However, while this is Cruz's to lose — he has damaged himself badly in Iowa this week. Poor debate and the ‘shame’ mailer are just two examples.”

The 15 percent of GOP insiders who didn’t pick Trump or Cruz to win all selected Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is in third place in the polls.

Outside Iowa, Republican insiders in the other early states — who largely oppose Trump — are watching intently. Some said Cruz would win — but conceded that might be wishful thinking.

“He’s close in the polling and has a better organization,” said a New Hampshire Republican, who also conceded: “Maybe [I’m] just not believing that Trump could actually win.”

Others appear resigned to a Trump victory on Monday night — but are hoping to thwart him elsewhere.

“If Trump is going to be stopped, it is going to have to be in [New Hampshire],” said a Republican there.

Democratic insiders believe overwhelmingly that Clinton will win.

Democratic insiders weren’t nearly as divided as their GOP counterparts: They said by a wide margin that Clinton will defeat Bernie Sanders on Monday night, crediting what they say is her vastly superior organization.

“Hands down, Clinton has the best operation,” one Iowa Democrat said. “It doesn't matter who I speak to — whether it's in a big county or small, on the western side of the state or eastern — they all say the same thing: They see no evidence of Sanders organizing. They have a lot of people, but none of them are trained or prepared for what will happen on Monday. The lesson they took from Obama’s 2008 win was that big crowds equate [to] support in a caucus room. They seem to [forget] that Obama also had the best caucus campaign Iowa had seen up to that point. Unfortunately for them, Clinton has a stronger operation than even Obama did then, and her supporters are more committed than theirs.”

Other Democrats said caucus-goers will go with their heads over their hearts and choose Clinton — much as they picked then-Sen. John Kerry in 2004 over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and then-Sen. John Edwards.

“Undecided Democrats will [be] pragmatic this year just like in 2004 when Dean surged ahead of Kerry,” said another Iowa Democrat. “Clinton has run a good campaign, in spite of not trying to bring new voters into the fold, and Sanders has not made a convincing argument that he is an electable general election candidate.”

But while Democrats overwhelmingly say Clinton will win, Republicans disagreed. A majority of GOP insiders insist Sanders’ energized supporters will carry him to victory.

One New Hampshire Republican cited the disclosure on Friday that the State Department won’t release 22 email messages on Clinton’s home server in picking Sanders as the likely winner.

“Big Mo [is] going his way,” the Republican said, “and Hillary’s email issues are now firmly bipartisan.”

And even the minority who picked Clinton as the likely winner claim the campaign has bruised the former secretary of state.

“My friends on the [Democratic] side tell me that Hillary will win due to organization,” one Iowa Republican said, “but it will be close and damaging.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this special pre-Iowa survey:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Richard S. Rogers, Nick Ryan, Matt Schultz, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, William O’Brien, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Karen Testerman, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams, Ethan Zorfas

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.