When Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson tweeted that he is a happy man as he prepares to tee off at Pebble Beach in the PGA’s pro-am event this week, teammates and friends responded with hearty congratulations. That’s enough to confirm that, as first reported by Sportsnet.ca, the Jays and Donaldson had agreed to a two-year contract worth about $29 million through 2017.

Why only two years? Why not a blockbuster multi-year contract that buys out at least one free-agent season? This length would not seem to make much sense, since when this contract expires the 30-year-old will still have one more arbitration-eligible season in 2018 prior to qualifying for free agency. It seems extremely possible that, if he continues to excel, history will repeat itself with another arbitration showdown.

The answer is simple.

The Jays were caught in an uncomfortable, unlucky, somewhat distasteful position and the only way out to avoid disrupting the feel-good clubhouse chemistry was for them to reach a two-year deal with the reigning AL MVP — or else go big with five or six years, which they were not ready to do at this time.

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When the Jays and Donaldson exchanged arbitration numbers at the deadline in January, the player’s demand was $11.8 million while the club’s offer was a mere $445,000 less. The dilemma in which GM Ross Atkins found himself was that the Jays have an existing policy under which players either agree to a contract by the deadline or go through the entire process — unless a multi-year deal can be reached. It’s an adversarial process that involves a hearing with an arbitrator that is often filled with ill will and vitriol, damaging player-team relationships.

Under this “file or trial” policy the Jays would have had to go into the hearing (set for next Monday) and say nothing, basically conceding a loss for the sake of the meagre difference between offer and demand, or else negotiate a multi-year deal. They chose the latter.

It’s not really a gamble for the Jays. Baseball analytics these days can be fed into a computer and spit out to the nearest dollar what a player like Donaldson might have made in arbitration next winter if he repeats or comes close to this year’s numbers.

The Jays simply combined that number with the $12 million from this year and made the $29-million offer to Donaldson. He understands the situation. In the meantime, it gives the two sides time to negotiate the longer contract that they both truly desire, one that would take the slugger through at least the 2020 season, buying out at least the first two years of free agency.

Donaldson made $4.3 million as an arbitration loser in his first year with the Jays in 2015 and earned AL MVP honours, leading the club to the post-season for the first time since 1993. He batted .297 with 41 homers and 123 RBIs, both career highs. He won a Silver Slugger.

A spinoff question: Where does this front-office largesse leave fellow sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, who both can be free agents following the 2016 season? Encarnacion’s camp has already told the Jays that if he does not have a new contract by opening day, he will become a free agent — with the Jays, of course, still having an opportunity to compete. As for Bautista, last week he declared to The Canadian Press that he would be honoured to finish his career in a Jays uniform, but that there has been no progress towards an offer. The Donaldson situation complicates both negotiations.

In 2016, Bautista ($14 milloin) and Encarnacion ($10 million) will be two of the biggest bargains in baseball, considering the consistent power numbers they have delivered during their last contracts. Each has one more kick at the can, one more opportunity for a big contract beginning in 2017 — contracts they richly deserve.

Let’s just suggest for this exercise that they each can make a deal for three years and $60 million. Given the contracts that major-league teams have handed to lesser offensive talents in the last few years, it could be even more in terms of years and dollars. Bautista will play in 2017 as a 36-year-old, while Edwin will be 35. That’s a lot of Rogers money given their history.

A quick study of guaranteed salary for Blue Jay position players, and how they compare with the Yankees and Red Sox starting in 2017, shows how unlikely it would be for the Jays and their ownership to be ready, willing and able to sign both of their own stars.

If Encarnacion and Bautista re-upped with the Jays, Toronto would owe an estimated $97 million guaranteed to five position players in 2017. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will earn $20 million, as will catcher Russell Martin. With Donaldson checking in at about $17 million, and assuming $20 millon each to the two pending free agents, that total far eclipses those of the Yankees or Red Sox.

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The free-spending Yankees in 2017 have $92 million committed to position players in 2017, the Red Sox $71 million. It’s hard to see Rogers ownership deciding to spend more for hitting than those two clubs moving forward.

The conclusion seems to be that if the Jays are truly pursuing a longer deal with the younger Donaldson, then they can only afford one of Bautista or Encarnacion — perhaps neither.

But hey, that’s a full season away, so relax and enjoy the Jays’ offensive ride in 2016 in defence of the East.

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