Twice in the last two days a cross-party coalition of MPs has defeated the government on Brexit. On Tuesday it was a largely technical issue relating to taxation after Brexit. Yesterday it was to ensure that the government does not delay a debate on alternatives if its deal with the EU is defeated next week.

Both votes show that a growing coalition of MPs is coming together, united in their determination to stop a no deal Brexit and for Parliament to take back control from government. In doing so, they make a People’s Vote more likely.

Perhaps the most ominous moment for Brexiters was a declaration on Tuesday by Nick Boles MP, the leading proponent of the so-called “Norway option”. Boles said he will “vote on any motion, on any amendment, on any piece of legislation, proposed by whomsoever in this House to ensure that we leave the European Union on March 20 with a deal or not at all.” Boles and his “Norway” supporters are not backing a People’s Vote yet, but the groundwork has been well and truly laid.

The MPs who made a stand on Tuesday, led by Yvette Cooper and Nicky Morgan, did so for a very clear reason. They wanted to send a message to ministers that there is no majority in the House of Commons for a no-deal Brexit. Their chosen vehicle was clause 89 in the Finance Bill designed to give the government powers to deal with taxation issues after Brexit. It is a largely technical measure and one that might never be needed. But it gave MPs an opportunity to show that the extreme Brexiters who want “no deal” do not speak for the majority in the Commons.

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One of its supporters, Oliver Letwin, told MPs that he wanted to show that if there was a majority in the House against a no deal Brexit, it would be possible to bring forward amendments of this kind every time the government sought to legislate to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. He believed that MPs “will not allow a no-deal exit to occur at the end of March”.

The government duly lost that vote and 20 Conservative MPs, seven of them former cabinet ministers, voted against their party whip. This is the largest rebellion against the government that we have seen by those coming from a pro-European position. Losing the support of senior Tory backbenchers like Oliver Letwin, Michael Fallon and Nicholas Soames, who are more typically known for their loyalty than their rebelliousness, is dangerous for the government.

Yesterday’s vote could prove even more important. Despite an hour-long filibustering, in which extreme Brexiters tried to stop an amendment to the business motion tabled by Dominic Grieve from being voted on, it passed. These two votes taken together mean that ministers are no longer able either to control the business in the Commons nor to get through legislation that makes a no-deal Brexit possible.

Slowly, painfully and in many cases with reluctance, MPs are moving towards a People’s Vote. No doubt some will want a vote on a Norway-style agreement first, as Labour will want to try and call a general election, but in the end logic is driving MPs towards calling a new referendum. They are realising that there is no other way to resolve this crisis but a People’s Vote.

Edited by Luke Lythgoe