Tories creep up on Labour by two points, despite 70% of voters polled by ICM/Guardian saying they have not seen any gains

Most people in Britain are still not feeling the benefit from economic recovery, even though the majority are finally convinced that the turnaround is under way, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.

An emphatic 70% of those surveyed maintain that the recovery is not benefitting them or their families, while only 26% say they have gained as the economy has improved, adding credence to Labour attacks over the cost of living.

Recovery on the way

But the majority now do agree with George Osborne's boast in the autumn statement that Britain is "moving again". Of those surveyed, 50% agreed with the statement that "recovery is under way", while 42% disagreed.

The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows the Conservatives closing the gap on Labour to just five percentage points. The Tories are on 32% – an advance of two points from November. Labour falls back one point to 37%, and the Liberal Democrats also sink by a point, to 12%. Ukip is on 9%.

State of the parties

The results are in keeping with a separate post-autumn statement poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times, which also suggested the Labour lead tightening to five points.

With the recovery appearing to gather pace, David Cameron and Osborne retain their solid lead over Ed Miliband and the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, as the team most trusted to manage the economy properly, with 39% backing the Tory pair to handle the economy, compared with just 23% who side with Labour's two Eds.

economy

The government advantage on economic trust has been a constant of politics since the last election, although the edge over Labour narrowed after George Osborne's "omnishambles" 2012 budget, before widening again earlier this year as the national income figures began to improve.

The autumn statement, which was quickly overshadowed by the death of Nelson Mandela, has changed little: this month's 16-point gap is the same as that found in August, when ICM last asked who was most trusted on the economy.

The continuing challenge for the Conservatives is turning this economic trust and resurgent GDP into a stronger political recovery, which would require ordinary voters to start seeing some gains in their standard of living.

The latest official figures show that pay edging up at an annualised rate of just 0.7%, at a time when inflation remains above 2%. That explains why barely a quarter of Britons believe the recovery is benefiting them, and also the increasing demand for tax cuts by Tory backbenchers rattled by Labour claims of a cost of living crisis.

Benefits of recovery

The detail of the poll suggests that women especially are still dogged by a "feel-bad factor". Whereas men now accept, by 57% to 38%, that recovery is under way, women narrowly reject that claim by 46% to 44%. Women are disproportionately employed in public services, where job losses are likely to drag on after the private sector turns the corner, and the 73% to 22% split among women who claim to have felt no benefit from recovery is even more emphatic than the male 66%-30% split.

There is also a clear regional divide. In the south, people are now convinced by a 54%-38% margin that the recovery is in train, but opinion runs the other way in the north (where 49% still think there is no recovery, and only 45% believe it. In Wales the recovery sceptics have a 55%-45% edge.

The results echo an analysis by Manchester University suggesting London and the south-east are faring much better than the rest of the country.

On the "personally benefitting" question, 82% of Scots give a negative answer compared with just 17% who say they can feel some advantage, a much sharper split than the 68%-30% balance in the south. Across the UK as a whole, however, in all age ranges and social classes those feeling no benefit outnumber those who do by two to one or more.

The poll also asked voters whether they were worried that the emerging recovery was based on an unsustainable new property boom. Overall, voters dismissed this concern – which has been raised by the business secretary, Vince Cable, among others – by 49% to 34%. Even in the south, where housing is so costly, 45% disagreed with the suggestion that growth is fuelled by a property bubble, and only 35% agreed.

Only among younger voters is there more concern about a housing-led recovery. Respondents aged 25-34, who are likely to be facing high rents and struggling to buy property, are fairly evenly split on this question – 42% are worried that runaway house prices are fuelling recovery, whereas 44% are not.

Among minor parties, the Scottish National party took 4% of votes, the Greens 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 6-8 December 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.