Season Preview – 2012 San Francisco Giants, By Chuck Strom

Those who read Grantland may have seen Jonah Keri’s recent preview of the San Francisco Giants, where he predicted that their stellar pitching will be betrayed again by another punchless lineup of veteran retreads, for which he excoriated general manager Brian Sabean for not improving. In general it’s hard to argue with Keri’s reasoning. The 2011 Giants actually scored fewer runs then they allowed and were lucky to win 86 games as well as lead the NL West for much of the season. With Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan representing the best of their off-season acquisitions, it might be reasonable to conclude that the Giants aren’t likely to rise much further in hitting than where they finished 2011: dead last in the National League. While not ruling out this possibility, I think the Giants will fare somewhat better at the plate than last year and give their pitching more of the support it richly deserves. Beyond the horrendous season-ending injury to star catcher Buster Posey in May, the Giants logged more days on the disabled list in 2011 that any other team in baseball, mostly at the expense of their lineup. Worse yet, the performance of most of their healthy position players declined significantly in 2011, most notably Aubrey Huff, their best hitter in 2010. The only Giant hitter to improve in 2011 was third baseman Pablo Sandoval, and even he spent six weeks on the DL with a broken wrist. In other words, the Giants’ luck could hardly have been worse last year, and the law of averages would suggest that while they might not catch all the breaks like they did in October 2010, it is reasonable for them to expect their hitters to recover somewhat and achieve some level of respectability in 2012.

INFIELD

Any impulse the Giants might have had to go after either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder in free agency was likely squelched by their already overcrowded roster of first basemen. Due to his $22 million contract the Giants will almost certainly start with Huff on Opening Day. They have already clearly signaled, however, that Huff used up all of the good will he earned in 2010 by showing up out-of-shape in 2011 and remaining lost at the plate all season. A continuation of that performance this year will likely land Huff on the bench and possibly the waiver wire before April is out, with either prospects Brandon Belt or Brett Pill taking over his spot. Both Belt and Pill showed promise later in the 2011 season, and my guess is that between these three players the Giants should get more offense from this side of the infield in 2012.

With Freddy Sanchez recovering slowly from his dislocated shoulder, second base and shortstop are likely to be weak contributors to the lineup in 2012. With fielding at a premium due to their reliance on pitching, the Giants might do well to hand over the shortstop spot to Brandon Crawford, whose fielding and throwing arm are beyond question and would at least balance out his shortcomings at the plate. Third base will be Sandoval’s property for as long as he continues to keep his weight under control, and continued improvement in his production is reasonable to expect in 2012.

Then, of course, there is the question of Posey behind the plate. Much has been written questioning whether he is sufficiently healed from his ankle injury to assume full-time duties at possibly the most physically demanding position in baseball. Judging from spring training reports, Posey will almost certainly start on Opening Day. The Giants will probably be very cautious about over-working him in 2012 (a frequent topic of discussion in 2011 even before he got hurt), so it’s likely that he’ll be given plenty of off days either on the bench or at first base. The Giants have another hot-hitting catching prospect in Hector Sanchez, but they seem more interested in keeping him on the field to learn his trade in the minors rather than on the bench with the big club, which will leave either Eli Whiteside or Chris Stewart with substitute duties. Doesn’t matter much between the two; both of them are likely to contribute more behind the plate than at it.

OUTFIELD

This will be the area most impacted by new acquisitions, or at least the Giants hope so. If events go according to plan, the Giants will get the 2011 Melky Cabrera in left field and the 2010 Angel Pagan in right, providing decent fielding in the spacious AT&T Park outfield and much better hitting and on-base percentage at the top of the lineup. Nate Schierholtz, a defensive star with a history of mediocrity at the plate, has been projected for right field. Recent spring training reports, however, would suggest that only Cabrera is likely to establish a firm claim to a starting spot, creating the possibility of Belt or even Huff playing in the outfield depending on whose bat appears healthiest.

PITCHING – BULLPEN

It is the nature of relief pitching to get less attention—and smaller contracts—than starters. The Giants, however, have owed virtually as much of their recent success to their bullpen as to their starting pitching. And not just Brian Wilson; middle relievers Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, and Javier Lopez have all excelled at preserving the slim leads handed to them and can be reasonably expected to do the same in 2012. Chief among the Giants’ concerns is with The Beard himself, who for one scary moment in August appeared destined to undergo his second Tommy John procedure. Giants fans can only hope that Wilson’s previous elbow issues, possibly a legacy of his heavy workload during the 2010 playoffs and Series, are under control, and he is likely to be monitored even more closely than Posey for any sign of potential injury. This would suggest that while he is not likely to match his previous record of 48 saves in 2010, he might with careful management still fill the closer role as often as needed, with enough in the tank to get through another October.

PITCHING – ROTATION

It says something about the quality of the Giants rotation that their biggest and most decorated star, Tim Lincecum, may actually have been only their third best pitcher in 2011, behind Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. Barring catastrophic injury –a fate often projected for Lincecum due to his unique pitching motion, an opinion I don’t share—this group, with Ryan Vogelsong maintaining enough of his astounding 2011 success to keep a fourth rotation spot, should keep the Giants at or near the top of the NL West in 2012. As for their very expensive fifth starter, Barry Zito, one can only hope that he can find enough of his curveball to stay around the .500 mark and pitch enough innings to keep the rotation on schedule. Even with Zito’s troubles, only the Phillies are likely to have a better rotation than the Giants in 2012.

PROJECTIONS

The 2012 Giants should hit better than the 2011 team—how can they not? If the lineup even approaches mediocrity they should improve enough on their 86 wins to compete with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers for the NL West Crown. With some good luck, a necessary ingredient for success in any league, the Giants could pick up where they left off in 2010 and find themselves back to October, when anything can happen. If they find themselves in contention near the July 31 trading deadline, expect Sabean to make a trade in an effort to put the team over the top. There may even be some additional sense of urgency in the front office due to Cain’s approaching free agency in 2013. Try as I’m sure they will, the Giants may be unable to afford to keep him, suggesting that 2012 may be their best chance for a time to win another championship banner to go with the one they raised on Opening Day last year.

Much as I may hate to think so, the future may be now, guys.

– Chuck Strom