Giant pandas could be wiped out despite conservation efforts being hailed as a success, according to a new study.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) recently decided the bear was no longer officially “endangered” but was merely “vulnerable” to extinction.

This still means the animal faces as “high risk of extinction in the wild” – rather than the previous “very high” chance – but the new research suggested its true plight was perhaps being underestimated.

Writing in the journal Ecological Modelling, scientists from Beijing Forestry University said the number of giant pandas and the total area of suitable habitat had increased over the past 10 years.

But they also said habitats had also become more fragmented with 73 per cent of local populations so small that they faced a “high survival risk”.

Some 55 per cent of groups of pandas had fewer than 10 individual members and only 33 per cent had more than 30, which is seen as the minimum number to ensure a population’s survival.

“We cannot just focus on the overall number of wild pandas and the total area of habitat, ignoring habitat fragmentation and population isolation,” the researchers wrote.

They suggested that conservation efforts could be masking a more fundamental problem.

“The giant panda survival crisis is complicated because of the co-existence of protection and interference,” they said.

Animals in decline Show all 8 1 /8 Animals in decline Animals in decline Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) Where: Orkney Islands. What: Between 2001-2006, numbers in Orkney declined by 40 per cent. Why: epidemics of the phocine distemper virus are thought to have caused major declines, but the killing of seals in the Moray Firth to protect salmon farms may have an impact. Alamy Animals in decline African lion (Panthera leo) Where: Ghana. What: In Ghana’s Mole National Park, lion numbers have declined by more than 90 per cent in 40 years. Why: local conflicts are thought to have contributed to the slaughter of lions and are a worrying example of the status of the animal in Western and Central Africa. Animals in decline Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) Where: Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Costa Rica. What: Numbers are down in both the Atlantic and Pacific. It declined by 95 per cent between 1989-2002 in Costa Rica. Why: mainly due to them being caught as bycatch, but they’ve also been affected by local developments. Alamy Animals in decline Wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans) Where: South Atlantic. What: A rapid decline. One population, from Bird Island, South Georgia, declined by 50 per cent between 1972-2010, according to the British Antarctic Survey. Why: being caught in various commercial longline fisheries. Alamy Animals in decline Saiga Antelope (Saiga tatarica) Where: Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. What: fall in populations has been dramatic. In the early 1990s numbers were over a million, but are now estimated to be around 50,000. Why: the break up of the former USSR led to uncontrolled hunting. Increased rural poverty means the species is hunted for its meat Animals in decline Swordfish (Xiphias gladius) Where: found worldwide in tropical, subtropical and temperate seas. Why: at risk from overfishing and as a target in recreational fishing. A significant number of swordfish are also caught by illegal driftnet fisheries in the Mediterranean Animals in decline Argali Sheep (Ovis mammon) Where: Central and Southern Asian mountains,usually at 3,000-5,000 metres altitude. Why: domesticated herds of sheep competing for grazing grounds. Over-hunting and poaching. Animals in decline Humphead Wrasse (Cheilinus undulatus) Where: the Indo-Pacific, from the Red Sea to South Africa and to the Tuamoto Islands (Polynesia), north to the Ryukyu Islands (south-west Japan), and south to New Caledonia. Why: Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported (IUU) fishing and trading of the species

“The total habitat area and the population size increased as the degree of fragmentation also increased.”

They used “catastrophe theory” to analyse the situation laid out in the two more recent surveys of panda populations, carried out between 1999 and 2003 and then again between 2011 and 2014.

“The [latest] data showed that 73 per cent per cent of the local populations had a high survival risk and 55 per cent of [local populations] included less than 10 individuals.

“Habitat fragmentation and human disturbance were the most important factors that negatively affected ecosystem stability and increased the survival risk of pandas. Thus, panda survival crisis remains serious.”



Concern is growing about the rate of extinction of species on the planet, largely as a result of human activity. This is now similar to extinction rates that took place during the five global mass extinction events over the past 500 million years, caused by a range of effects such as meteorite strikes and massive volcanic eruptions.