The 2016 presidential campaigns are heating up quickly, and the path to 270 or victory for any presidential campaign is going to be very interesting.

This post starts a multi-part blog post on 2016 presidential politics and strategy.

The Basics of the Electoral College

As you know, there are 538 total electoral votes in the electoral college; therefore it takes 270 electoral college votes to become President of the United States. (CLICK – If you would like to know more about the electoral college)

In all but two states (Maine and Nebraska), electoral college votes are assigned in a winner takes all manner. (Maine and Nebraska do a congressional district proportion)

If no one person gets to an absolute majority of 270, then the House of Representatives selects the President. (If that were to happen, God help us all)

Therefore, the total popular vote means nothing in the mechanics of electing our President.

The entire campaign is about getting to 270.

The Electoral Strong Favors

While nothing in politics is guaranteed, there are some assumptions we can make.

As a starting point for this analysis, we will label “strong favor” as any state that a political party has won for the past 4 consecutive presidential elections. (Double-click map for a larger view)

We will later reconsider if all of these states are correctly labeled as “strong favor”, but for now this is our starting point.

The 2016 Starting Score Board

Party Strong Favor 270 Shortage Republicans 175 95 Democrats 242 28

The Republican Electoral College Strong Favor Detail

State EV 2012 Margin 2008 Margin 2004 Margin 2000 Margin Average Margin Trend4 Trend2 MO 10 9.36% 0.13% 7.20% 3.34% 5.01% 6.02% 9.23% AZ 11 9.04% 8.48% 10.45% 6.28% 8.56% 2.76% 0.56% GA 16 7.80% 5.20% 16.59% 11.69% 10.32% -3.89% 2.60% SC 9 10.47% 8.98% 17.08% 15.93% 13.12% -5.46% 1.49% TN 11 20.38% 15.06% 14.30% 3.86% 13.40% 16.52% 5.32% LA 8 17.21% 18.63% 14.51% 7.68% 14.51% 9.53% -1.42% AR 6 23.69% 19.85% 9.76% 5.44% 14.69% 18.25% 3.84% WV 5 26.69% 13.09% 12.86% 6.32% 14.74% 20.37% 13.60% MS 6 11.50% 13.17% 19.69% 16.91% 15.32% -5.41% -1.67% MT 3 13.64% 2.38% 20.50% 25.07% 15.40% -11.43% 11.26% SD 3 18.02% 8.41% 21.47% 22.73% 17.66% -4.71% 9.61% TX 38 15.77% 11.75% 22.86% 21.32% 17.93% -5.55% 4.02% KY 8 22.68% 16.22% 19.86% 15.13% 18.47% 7.55% 6.46% KS 6 21.61% 14.92% 25.38% 20.80% 20.68% 0.81% 6.69% ND 3 19.63% 8.65% 27.36% 27.60% 20.81% -7.97% 10.98% AL 9 22.19% 21.58% 25.62% 14.88% 21.07% 7.31% 0.61% AK 3 13.99% 21.54% 25.55% 30.95% 23.01% -16.96% -7.55% OK 7 33.54% 31.29% 31.14% 21.88% 29.46% 11.66% 2.25% ID 4 31.69% 25.30% 38.12% 39.53% 33.66% -7.84% 6.39% WY 3 40.82% 32.24% 39.79% 40.06% 38.23% 0.76% 8.58% UT 6 47.88% 27.98% 45.54% 40.49% 40.47% 7.39% 19.90% 175 19.36% 1.89% 5.37%

The Democrat Electoral College Strong Favor Detail

State EV 2012 Margin 2008 Margin 2004 Margin 2000 Margin Average Margin Trend4 Trend2 WI 10 6.94% 13.90% 0.38% 0.22% 5.36% 6.72% -6.96% PA 20 5.38% 10.31% 2.50% 4.17% 5.59% 1.21% -4.93% MN 10 7.69% 10.24% 3.48% 2.40% 5.95% 5.29% -2.55% OR 7 12.09% 16.35% 4.16% 0.44% 8.26% 11.65% -4.26% MI 16 9.47% 16.44% 3.42% 5.13% 8.62% 4.34% -6.97% WA 12 14.77% 17.08% 7.17% 5.58% 11.15% 9.19% -2.31% ME 4 15.29% 17.32% 9.00% 5.11% 11.68% 10.18% -2.03% NJ 14 17.74% 15.53% 6.68% 15.83% 13.95% 1.91% 2.21% DE 3 18.63% 24.98% 7.59% 13.06% 16.07% 5.57% -6.35% IL 20 16.84% 25.10% 10.34% 12.01% 16.07% 4.83% -8.26% CT 7 17.33% 22.37% 10.37% 17.47% 16.89% -0.14% -5.04% CA 55 23.09% 24.02% 9.95% 11.80% 17.22% 11.29% -0.93% MD 10 26.08% 25.44% 12.98% 16.39% 20.22% 9.69% 0.64% NY 29 28.18% 26.86% 18.29% 25.00% 24.58% 3.18% 1.32% MA 11 23.15% 25.81% 25.16% 27.30% 25.36% -4.15% -2.66% VT 3 35.60% 37.01% 20.14% 9.94% 25.67% 25.66% -1.41% RI 4 27.46% 27.81% 20.75% 29.08% 26.28% -1.62% -0.35% HI 4 42.71% 45.26% 8.74% 18.33% 28.76% 24.38% -2.55% DC 3 83.63% 85.92% 79.84% 76.20% 81.40% 7.43% -2.29% 242 19.42% 7.19% -2.93%

Part 1 Conclusion(s)

It’s clear, the 2016 race to 270 starts with a more difficult path for Republicans than Democrats.

In tomorrow’s Part 2, we will look at the states that are not “Strong Favors.”

In Part 3, we will reconsider our “strong favors”, reconsider the so-called “Blue Wall” and look at possible paths to 270 for the GOP and the Democrats.