If Independence Day were about feting the U.S. weaning itself from foreign oil and forging a renewables future, the man behind our call of the day probably wouldn’t be sounding the alarm on a potentially devastating crisis by the end of the decade.

But it’s not. And we aren’t. And he is.

Yes, according to the latest warning from Chris Martenson of the Peak Prosperity blog, there’s an oil shock looming as early as 2018. Not just any oil shock, either. The impact of this particularly nasty spike will be severe and long-lasting, he believes.

“There will be an extremely painful oil supply shortfall sometime between 2018 and 2020,” he explains. “It’ll be highly disruptive to our over-leveraged global financial system, given how saddled it is with record debts and unfunded IOUs.”

Martenson said there is a way to avoid it — but that’s only if the world economy collapses first and drives down demand.

Not exactly a solution to get excited about.

Short of that, he believes a jump in the price of oil “will kneecap a world economy already weighted down by the highest levels of debt ever recorded.”

A driving factor behind his doomsday view, as the chart below illustrates, is what’s shaping up to be a three-year decline in investment in the oil industry — something we’ve never seen before.

“This isn’t just a slump,” Martenson says. “It’s an historic slump.”

Hence, oil discoveries have been rare, dropping to a record low in 2016 as companies continued to cut spending, according to the IEA.

“Oil is the most important substance for our economy, we’re burning more of it on a yearly basis than ever before, and we just found the lowest amount since the world economy was several times smaller than it is now,” Martenson said. “And all this is happening while we’re reducing our efforts to find more at an unprecedented rate.”

All this supports his prediction of a return to triple-digit oil prices at a time when a vulnerable global economy simply cannot afford it.

As for the stock markets, no worries. Traders just keep embracing the “BTFD” mentality that’s been working for years (more on that below).

Key market gauges

No sign of any oil shock this morning, with crude US:CLQ7 aiming for eight straight days of gains. Futures on the Dow US:YMU7 and S&P US:ESU7 are leaning higher, while gold US:GCU7 is in the red. Asia markets ADOW, +0.33% were mixed while Europe SXXP, -0.66% rallied early in its session.

The chart

If you’ve spent any time navigating the social-media trading pits, you’ve surely been regaled with the “BTFD!” anthem at some point.

When the bull market falters, or your stock takes a nasty hit, what do you do? BTFD.

Yes, buy the f’ing dip, the rally cry that’s seen a spike in usage of late, according to Garrett Hoffman. The data scientist crunched the numbers going back to 2011 and posted this illustration of the results on StockTwits.

As you can see, BTFD peaked in 2014 before drifting out of the banter through the end of 2015. Now it’s back and driving toward its previous peak as the market continues to prove its resilience by rewarding those willing to bet on it.

“BTFD isn’t so much a strategy,” Hoffman says. “BTFD is a bullish anthem, battle cry and way of life.”

The buzz

Tesla’s Model 3 electric car. Reuters

You win some, you lose some. Tesla’s TSLA, +4.42% shot at the mass market, the $35,000 Model 3, should start rolling off the production line on Friday, said Elon Musk in a series of late Sunday tweets. Once under way, output should ramp up “exponentially,” Musk expects, to reach 20,000 per month by December.

But it was a tough weekend for Musk’s SpaceX, which had to abort its planned rocket launch from Cape Canaveral on Sunday with a mere 9 seconds remaining on the countdown. The next window for the Falcon 9 launch is tonight. Unlike recent launches, the rocket will not land and be reused, since the heavier payload will require it to use all its fuel for the launch itself.

Trading is likely to be pretty quiet today, as people stretch out the July Fourth holiday and U.S. stock markets close early. See:Which markets are closed for Independence Day?

The stat

Eight years — That’s how long it’s been since global stock markets have enjoyed such a bullish first half of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal. Of the world’s 30 major indexes, 26 managed to close the first six months in the green.

As you can see by the chart, only four first-half rallies in the past 20 years have been as widespread or better than the current one. In those cases, two of them came before crashes, while the other two ushered in multiyear bull markets.

The economy

The June employment report is the data highlight of this holiday shortened week, but it doesn’t hit until Friday.

Until then, there’s plenty to sift through, including the ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending numbers today. Both of those hit at 10 a.m. Eastern. Also, June car sales results will filter in throughout the day.

Read:Why hiring is slowing and will continue to slow.

The quote

“He did not get any sun. He had a baseball hat on” — a LOL-worthy comment from a spokesman for Chris Christie, who spent some time over the weekend relaxing on a New Jersey beach that was closed to the public due to a budget standoff between the governor and legislators in Trenton.

Random reads

How the FBI saved Martin Shkreli’s life.

A Muslim doctor offers insight from Trump country.

Why a city block can be one of the loneliest places on Earth.

Mike Pence has plenty of company in his wariness of being alone with a woman who isn’t his wife.

And here’s how the left lost its mind.

Speaking of losing one’s mind, here’s where the president apparently sourced his CNN wrestling tweet. Spoiler: On Reddit.

Meanwhile, the First Daughter is a big hit in China.

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