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By Tangotiger 03:48 PM

The run value of a random homerun is +1.40 runs above average. This is something that I learned 30+ years ago from Pete Palmer through his seminal work with John Thorn in The Hidden Game of Baseball. The Hidden Game. Love the title, and its implication. The central aspect of baseball, everything about baseball, is the strike zone. By implication, the central skill for a player is to control the strike zone by working the count. The pitcher is trying to avoid throwing a pitch down the middle (most of the time), and a hitter is hoping to get a pitch down the middle (though he’s also looking elsewhere). As a result, the dance happens outside the core of the strike zone. The pitcher is trying to avoid getting to a 3-ball count, and the hitter is trying to avoid getting to a 2-strike count.

We can quantify the ball-strike count. If we look at all 0-2 counts, we can see how that plate appearance ended. As you’d expect, it’s highly in favor of the pitcher. We can do the same with all 3-0 counts, and ignoring IBB, you realize that it’s highly in favor of the batter. I published this chart several months back:

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The key column there is the overall wOBA, which you can think of as analogous to OBP in terms of impact. But, let’s represent wOBA by its base value, which is runs, relative to the average. Linear Weights Runs, if you think of Pete Palmer. (That’s where the w in wOBA comes from… weighted.) So, for the first pitch, the 0-0 count, the run value of 0 runs. For a 3-0 count, the run value is +0.20 runs. That is, if you pick up a plate appearance at a 3-0 count, then by the time the plate appearance will have ended, that plate appearance would have increased the number of runs in that inning by +0.20 runs. For an 0-2 count, the number of runs scored will be -0.11 runs, relative to the average.

In a further nod to Pete, we can represent the Run Expectancy by Ball-Strike count in this manner:

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To read the chart, you look for the ball-strike count you are in, and that will tell you how many runs your team will gain, or lose, by the time the plate appearance is complete, relative to being in an 0-0 count.

Now suppose you hit a homerun. We know that gains you +1.40 runs, via Palmer. But, what if we want to distinguish between an 0-2 homer, and a 3-0 homer? A homer is a homer you say. Yes, you are correct. But, perhaps you are interested in the components of that. What if we want to include Working The Count as a metric? What if we realize that a HR on an 0-2 count is more impressive than a HR on a 3-0 count? It looks like this:

0-2 count HR: -0.11 for working the count, +1.51 for hitting a homer IN THAT COUNT

3-0 count HR: +0.20 for working the count, +1.20 for hitting a homer IN THAT COUNT

Does this help us evaluate a hitter? Maybe. Maybe if the hitter who finds himself in alot of 0-2 counts who can improve his count-skills, he’d be able to leverage his HR skill much more than a guy who already knows how to work the count.

In any case, since everything about baseball is about the strike zone, and by extension the count, then let’s create a metric that recognizes that.

Joey Votto, you will not be surprised, is the best hitter at working the count. For our metric, what we will do is simply count the number of times he is in particular ball-strike count ON HIS LAST PITCH. That is, we’re going to break down his skill set into two components: getting to his last count, and then finishing off the plate appearance. This is how often Votto has reached each ball-strike count, excluding IBB:

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Since each ball-strike count has its own value, and we have the frequency of Votto entering each of these counts on his last pitch, we simply multiply one chart by the other. Those 12 times he entered a 3-0 count as his last pitch? That’s worth a total of +2.4 runs. We repeat this for all 12 ball-strike counts, add them up, and we get a total of +5.5 runs.

You can also think of it more simply: Votto’s average ball-strike count on his last pitch was: 1.52 balls, 1.15 strikes. That’s basically his “average” count when he faced his last pitch. An average ball is worth around +0.06 runs and an average strike is worth around -0.07 runs. So, you can simply do: 1.52 x 0.06 - 1.15 x 0.07 = 0.011 runs. Since Votto has 400 plate appearances, that gives us 400 x 0.011 = +4.4 runs. That’s the simple way of treating each ball equally and each strike equally. In the more precise way, we get +5.5 runs.

We can also apply it to pitchers. You will get the boring answer that the two pitchers who can Work the Count the best are Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Among relievers, you get the even more boring answer of Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. Jansen’s average ball-strike count on the last pitch is 0.92 balls, 1.60 strikes. Given that the maximum possible strike count on the last pitch is 2 strikes, it’s fairly impressive to get there at all, and to do so with only 0.92 balls is doubly impressive. Contrast to Trevor Rosenthal, who also has impressive Working The Count numbers, by getting there with 1.62 strikes, with 1.44 balls. In other words, Rosenthal puts himself into trouble much more than Jansen. But overall, Rosenthal is still one of the best at Working The Count. That’s how impressive Jansen is.

Stay tuned as we work to get this automated and into leaderboards.