The following are projections for the Manitoba election scheduled for April 19, 2016. These numbers were last updated on April 18, 2016, and reflect the best estimates as of April 18, 2016, the last day of polls included in the model.

The vote projection shows the weighted average of polling conducted in the province, along with adjustments made for the lack of a full slate of candidates for the Liberal and Green parties. The seat projections show the estimated number of seats each party would win if an election were held on the last day of polling.

The vote and seat projections in the central columns above reflect the average estimates while the low and high projections are based on the over-estimation or under-estimation of support the polls are likely to make. The minimum and maximum projections are designed to include 95 per cent of potential outcomes.

The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability of the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of error polls have made in recent elections.

The chart below shows the evolution of the seat and vote projections and ranges, as well as a regional breakdown of seat projections. "Rural" refers to the region outside of the city of Winnipeg.

The following chart lists the provincial polls currently included in the projection model, as well as the weight each poll carries.

By including polls in the projection, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimisation of their results. However, the weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account.

(If on a mobile device, you may need to tilt your screen horizontally in order to see the full chart above.)