CALGARY—The current epicentre of Canada’s oil-versus-the-environment furor is a project that would level 29,000 acres in the forests of northern Alberta.

You might call that an open pit mine — and most do.

But in the official brochure and website, Teck Resources Ltd., a mining and natural resources juggernaut, refers to its Frontier project as a “truck and shovel mine,” and touts the 2,500 people it would employ during its roughly 40 years of operation.

It’s corporate spin, sure, with wording that hints at hardworking people toiling away. But it also nods to the growing divide of how the mine is viewed in Alberta — where it would be a much needed shot to the arm for the ailing oil industry — versus the rest of the country.

The Teck project is significant to many Albertans, not just because of its enormity, but because many see it as a canary in the oilsands mine. This province has never shaken fears sparked at a 2017 town hall, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau implied — mistakenly, apparently — that the oilsands would have to be “phased out.”

When asked what the reaction will be if the mine isn’t approved, Jack Mintz has one word: “Apoplectic.”

“Leaving aside the economics of it,” says the president’s fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. “If it’s turned down, that is a major signal that ... maybe any future oilsands project will not be possible.”

The mine, as envisioned, would be built in the heart of northern Alberta’s oilsands, between Fort McMurray and Fort Chipewyan. It would include surface mining, a processing plant and tailings ponds, a plan that has drawn fierce opposition from environmentalists.

At full capacity, the company estimates it would produce 260,000 barrels of bitumen per day. That’s a lot of oil, even for Alberta. For context, the existing Trans Mountain pipeline — currently being expanded — can ship about 300,000 barrels a day.

A joint federal-provincial review panel signed off on the project last summer. Its final report noted the project would have “significant adverse project and cumulative effects” on the environment and Indigenous communities, but ultimately concluded that the mine, and the $70 billion it’s estimated to contribute to government revenue, was in the public interest.

Now, it has to be approved by both the Alberta and federal governments. The sticking point, of course, is the federal Liberals, who are due to decide by the end of February.

Reports this week say the feds are prepping an aid package for Alberta to soften the blow if the $20.6-billion project is nixed.

But on Friday, Alberta’s environment minister implied that the federal and provincial governments have different views of the value of the oil industry.

Specifically, Minister Jason Nixon shot back at the idea of a bailout, and what he said was the implication that the approval was somehow a gift from Ottawa; a gift that could just as soon be paid off.

“Albertans are not looking for a Justin Trudeau handout. We’re not interested in that,” Nixon told reporters in Calgary on Friday. Instead, he argued the project should be approved on its own merits.

The UCP government was voted in last spring with a pledge to support workers and return the oil industry to its former glory in Alberta, and Premier Jason Kenney has laid Teck at Trudeau’s feet.

“I’ve been very clear to the prime minister ... if they say no to this project, then they are signalling his earlier statement — that he wants to phase out the oilsands,” Kenney said back in January.

At a time when the inability to get oil infrastructure built has strained relations between Alberta and Ottawa, there will be political consequences for Teck isn’t built, Mintz says. Notably, it’ll give further ammunition to a small — but vocal — separatist movement, which could, eventually, undercut traditional conservative support.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Kenney will likely face scrutiny about whether he took the right tack in raising support for the project if it fails to get approved, according to Lori Williams, a policy studies professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary.

“If you see it as having been too demanding or too obstreperous, and that that actually alienated rather than increased support, that could come back. But much depends on whether the economy approves by the next election.”

Of course, Trudeau is in a political quagmire of his own. The federal government has committed to being carbon neutral by 2050, and the Teck mine would mean contending with an additional 4.1 megatonnes of emissions every year.

Mintz argues that the federal government is covering for a lack of a concrete plan by taking a shot at an easy target and turning down an oil project. “There’s no plans, or knowledge, or idea about how we’ll get (to carbon neutral) or what it means in terms of the Canadian economy,” adding that many Canadians are in support of responsible development.

In a sign that energy projects are increasingly evaluated in the context of their carbon footprint, Teck Resources announced a new goal last week of being carbon neutral by 2050, an objective it claims it can accomplish by being more efficient, looking at new ways to move materials at mines and switching to “cleaner” power.

Despite the uproar over the mine’s impact, there is no guarantee that an approval will mean the project is actually built.

Teck CEO Don Lindsay conceded last month that the application process didn’t cost much, and even a green light won’t guarantee shovels in the ground. Meanwhile, critics have pointed out that the project won’t be profitable until oil is above $75 US a barrel.

Regardless, Nixon said in a statement, Albertans will be watching closely.

“Prime Minister Trudeau has emphasized his desire to work with Alberta and to preserve national unity. It’s time he backed up his words with action.”

With files from The Canadian Press and Kieran Leavitt

Update, Feb. 7, 2020 — An earlier version of this file misspelled the surname of Jack Mintz.

Read more about: