SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 57-40 the Trail Blazers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 53 wins. They have won 51% of their road games and were expected to win 46%. At home they have a 66% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 64%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-3 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.2 wins. The Trail Blazers are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.5% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 8/28 they were at 50.8%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #12 winning 56.1%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.1% (#5 in League). They average 106.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 106.8. On the road they average 105.4 (104.8 expected), and at home 108.4 ppg (108.8 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 51.5 true FG% (#3 in League). They allow 104 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.2. They are allowing 104.7 (106.1 expected) on the road, and at home 103.3 ppg (104.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +6.9 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.5 per game (#26 in league).

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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 5.1%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Nuggets by one game. Their projected wins (2.78) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Thunder by 1.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Thunder. There is only a -0.36 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Trail Blazers are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 7 games, traveling 13361 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back) 69% LAC -- 47% BOS -- 47% @LAL 828 miles 53% @MIN 1424 miles 59% @WAS 2350 miles 43% @NY 2441 miles 43% @MIL 1095 miles 24% @GS 539 miles 78% LAC -- 74% ORL --

Sportsline has a free pick on the Portland Trail Blazers' next game. They are -5 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Trail Blazers are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 8/28 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 1.7% on 11/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.6%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 1%. They have a 38.5% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (71%). They have a 53% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 21.7% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #4 Toughest

Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #8 Easiest

Trail Blazers' Championship Forecast Changes

Date Projected Wins Playoff% West Champ NBA Champ Nov 8 49.7 98.2% 4% 1.6% Nov 6 49.4 97.4% 3.6% 1.7% Difference +0.3 +0.8% +0.4% -0.1%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.