More often than is probably healthy, I check out the FiveThirtyEight average of President Trump’s approval ratings. For months, it barely budged — hovering right around 42 percent for almost the entire summer. Over the past week, however, it has shifted.

Thanks to several negative polls for Trump — from YouGov, Emerson College, Investor’s Business Daily and the ABC/Washington Post collaboration — his approval rating has dropped. The FiveThirtyEight average is designed to be cautious, taking into account multiple polls, and it doesn’t tend to move sharply. Still, the share of Americans giving him positive ratings has fallen noticeably if modestly, to 40.1 percent. It is Trump’s worst mark since April.

By comparison, 54.1 percent of Americans disapprove of his performance. Those aren’t the sort of ratings that help a president’s political party win elections.

Now, whenever I come across data that’s consistent with my rooting interests, I try to view it with an extra degree of skepticism. And there are multiple reasons to doubt the mini-trend in Trump approval.