The flair of James Rodríguez and the finishing of Radamel Falcao are key to Colombia’s hopes of equalling or bettering their last-eight finish in 2014

This article is part of the Guardian’s 2018 World Cup Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the 32 countries who have qualified for Russia. theguardian.com is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 14 June.

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Colombia’s tactics changed for good after Radamel Falcao’s injury in 2014. The absence of his star forward led José Pékerman to play a 4-2-3-1 in Brazil four years ago, when they reached the quarter-finals. That was the basic formation too in the qualifiers for Russia 2018. However, in a few away games he opted for 4-3-2-1, with three strong players in the middle.

The full-backs are key to trying to get the ball to the wide players in the forward three. On the right, the strongest flank, are the full-back Santiago Arias and Juan Cuadrado; on the left several players have been tried, most frequently Frank Fabra (full-back) and Edwin Cardona. However, Colombia have had a lot of difficulty down this side, especially in defence.

In midfield the presence of Carlos Sánchez is crucial. One of his main roles under Pékerman has been to get between the central defenders when the team is attacking. His partner in the middle is usually Abel Aguilar, who can go from box to box, although Mateus Uribe, Jefferson Lerma and Wílmar Barrios are going for that place too.

Creativity in the national team is entirely down to James Rodríguez. In addition to the attack revolving around him, he can decide games with one pass or goal. The Bayern Munich forward does not have a fixed position – Pékerman gives him the freedom of the forward line and he is happy to get back and defend too. However, Colombia’s game depends so much on him that when he is a little bit off, or he runs out of steam, their goal threat disappears.

Since 2014 the main striker has changed a lot. First up was Teófilo Gutiérrez, now virtually forgotten; then Carlos Bacca, who had good games and bad. Now with Falcao, Colombia have got their great goalscorer back: to do well in Russia, his experience and ability to sniff out a goal will be fundamental to their success.

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Possible starting XI

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Which player is going to surprise everyone at the World Cup?

Mateus Uribe. The Club América midfielder has had a good couple of years at club and international level. Two years ago he won the Copa Libertadores with Atlético Nacional and was one of their most important players. That led to his transfer to Club América, in Mexico, where in addition to playmaking and setting up goals he has also scored a lot for his position. He made his debut in 2016 for Colombia and has been a regular pick since.

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Which player is likely to disappoint?

David Ospina. The goalkeeper, one of Colombia’s most-established players, has not had the best of seasons at Arsenal, playing only in the Europa League or the cups and as a substitute in the Premier League. That lack of regular action has affected his performances for the national team: the last seven goals they have conceded, he was directly responsible for four. That has led to criticism and he could be a weak point in Russia.

What is the realistic aim for Colombia and why?



Repeat what they did in Brazil. Colombia can compete on an equal footing with Poland and Senegal, and on paper they are better than Japan, so they should get out of the group. In the last 16, according to most predictions, they would face England or Belgium, two teams on a par with Colombia. If they get to the quarter-finals, they could play Germany, who are clearly better.

Camilo Manrique writes for El Tiempo.

Follow him on Twitter here.