LONDON (MarketWatch) — How much has the Greek crisis cost taxpayers in the rest of the world so far? A billion? Fifty billion? A trillion? Actually, the answer is nothing.

For all the drama, panics in the markets, and late night crisis summits, the whole saga has yet to cost a bean. Indeed some countries — such as Germany — have actually made a profit out of it.

Greece and the rest of the bankrupt peripheral countries have been propped up with loans, guarantees and all kinds of fancy sounding schemes. But not much in the way of hard cash has been spent.

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The International Monetary Fund and euro-zone governments have stepped in with support programs. But although private bond-holders had a ‘haircut’ imposed on them in the last bail-out, the fiction has been maintained that all the taxpayer support for Greece will be re-paid.

That is about to change.

The euro-crisis is about to cost cold, hard cash for taxpayers throughout the world. And you don’t exactly need to be Nate Silver to predict they are not going to be very happy about it.

The situation in Greece goes from bad to worse (or rather from catastrophic to apocalyptic). The economy, which was forecast to be ‘recovering’ by now when the rescue package was launched back in 2010, will shrink by another 7% this year, and probably by as much next year. Debt ratios are still soaring out of control. Greece’s debt to GDP is now forecast to hit 180%, according to the latest report of the European Union, the IMF, and the European Central Bank.

Greece is in danger of running out of cash any day now. Another bailout is being negotiated. It was held up while the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras struggled to get the latest austerity package through a reluctant Parliament. And yet, even though that has been delivered, the next $44 billion of aid money still hasn’t been paid out.

Why? Because the IMF is quite rightly insisting on realistic debt targets. The Greek economy can’t support a debt ratio of 180%. Very few economies can, and certainly not one going through a 1930s –style depression. Greece needs to get the ratio down to 120% or less to survive. But there is no way it can do that simply by cutting spending. As we now know, that simply worsens the depression.

There is only one way out. Debt forgiveness.

In the last bailout, a ‘haircut’ was imposed on private sector holders of Greek debt. There are not very many of them left, however. Most of the outstanding Greek debt is now in the hands of the ECB, the IMF, or national governments. Much of it will have to be written off. How much? A hundred billion euros according to an estimate by Barclays Capital. In other words, serious money.

Until now, hardly a cent of real cash has been spent supporting Greece. According to a report in Der Spiegel, Germany has actually made a profit of 400 million euros so far on the money it has lent the country. Germany borrows cheaply, and passes the loans on to the Greeks at a higher rate. As any credit card company will tell you, that is an easy way to make a living — as long as you get repaid in full.

But the Greek loans won’t be repaid. That much is obvious to anyone. The moment when that simple truth has to be faced is fast approaching.

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Maybe not in this bail-out. The ability of EU and IMF officials to fudge the numbers and find some spare cash from somewhere should never be under-estimated. But eventually there will have to be very major write-offs on loans to Greece.

That will hurt.

Germany, for example, has lent Athens 35 billion euros. A 50% write-down, the very minimum likely to be necessary, will cost Germany 17.5 billion euros — enough to make a significant dent in its budget.

The same is true in the rest of the world. Through the IMF, every developed country is pouring money into the euro-zone bailouts. That is why the Fund had to raise an extra $400 million in capital earlier this year. Politicians such as Britain’s David Cameron promised there would be profits on the contributions, on the dubious grounds the IMF had made a turn on past rescue programs. This time around it is likely to be different. Significant losses will be declared.

At that point, leaders in Germany and France, and indeed in the U.K., U.S. and for that matter in any IMF contributor such as Korea or Australia, will have to explain that taxpayer’s money is keeping Greece afloat, and keeping it in the euro. And they will need to justify that decision.

It is a big ask. Even if the program in Greece was working, it is hard to see why American, Australian or Korean voters should pay for it. They are supporting what was, at least until the crisis struck, a reasonably well-off country. They don’t have much of an interest in the outcome. Nor is Greece particularly deserving of their charity.

But in fact the policy is clearly failing. No matter how much money is thrown at it, it is hard to see how the Greeks can stay in the single currency now, or how their economy can recover with the policies now being imposed on it. Why should taxpayers support a strategy that isn’t working?

No doubt, the EU and the IMF will try and fiddle the figures in Greece once again. But the fact remains that real taxpayers cash is being wasted there every day — and the more this drags on, the more will be wasted. And as this becomes clearer the pressure to cut Greece lose will grow ever more intense. There are many potential end-games for the euro crisis. But the IMF being told by angry voters to pull the plug is the most likely.