It’s October 2017. The regular season has just ended. The Rockies have made the playoffs for the first time since 2009, as they are going to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card game. The Rockies have finally built a respectable rotation. German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray are actually competent starters that have multiple years of control. Although they lost the wild card game that year, there finally is something to be excited about.

Although the Rockies lost Greg Holland and Jonathan Lucroy in the upcoming offseason, they did bring back Chris Iannetta off a good 2017 season, and brought in all star closer Wade Davis. They also signed a good veteran reliever in Bryan Shaw, brought back Jake Mcgee, and on April 4th, they stopped worrying about Charlie Blackmon potentially leaving the Rockies in FA, since they signed him to a 6 year extension. There’s a lot to be excited about in Colorado at this point.

The rotation continued to impress in 2018. German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland continue to do their thing, with Freeland being very impressive. Although Jon Gray has taken a step back (even though his FIP suggests the all end result should have been vastly different), Antonio Senzatela definitely held his own. It’s the end of the season and back to back playoff appearances are a reality.

This wasn’t just a normal playoff appearance though. The Rockies were *this* close to catching the NL West title from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who finished with 92 wins. The Rockies finished with 91 wins. They were one of two game 163’s in 2018 to see who would win the division (the other was the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs). Although they didn’t win the division, they won the wild card game 2-1 against the Chicago Cubs, who had 95 wins, and had to face Jon Lester who knows a thing or two about the playoffs. Freeland’s dominant performance against the Cubs had another meaning to it: this dude is real and the Rockies might just have an ace on their hands.

Unfortunately for Colorado, they were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers, a series where the Rockies mustered up a whopping 2 runs. This is very significant since there were a handful of average and below average performers on the offensive side. Ian Desmond, a $22MM man in 2018, had a -0.6 WAR. D.J. Lemahieu had a .749 OPS, Chris Iannetta had a .730 OPS, Gerardo Parra had a .087 ISO, and Carlos Gonzalez was a shade of his former self, and couldn’t hit lefties (.719 OPS). But Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado, the left side of the Rockies infield, were great and Charlie Blackmon, defensive issues aside, was worth the money.

After back to back playoff appearances, and especially going 1-4 in those games plus a young but effective rotation, you would think the offseason would be an aggressive one. Their big move was to sign Daniel Murphy to play first base. While at the time of the signing he could have still had that elite hitting tool, it wasn’t a guarantee, since he only played 91 games in the most recent season and was going to be 34 for the 2019 season.

But a big move doesn’t always have to be a free agent signing or a trade. It could even be just retaining someone they should have retained to begin with, with no second thought. In the Rockies case, Nolan Arenado signing an 8 year, $260MM extension was their big move. And indeed, it was a huge move. Let’s say Arenado doesn’t sign an extension. He would’ve put up a 5.9 WAR season, like he did in 2019, but rather than being under contract for 2+ years, he would’ve hit the free agent market with fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon (7 years, $245MM) and Josh Donaldson (4 years, $92MM). And the Rockies would lose a franchise icon, a superstar, a perennial gold glove winner, MVP candidate, and more. Think of something positive about a player, and that’s what Arenado represented.

It’s just unfortunate that Colorado did nothing to improve on their 91 win season in 2018, they simply just kept what they had and hoped it would work. But they didn’t just keep what they had, they lost their starting second baseman in D.J. Lemahieu who went to do some… things in New York, corner outfielders in Gonzalez and Parra (although retaining them wouldn’t have done a whole lot), and a dominant back end reliever in Adam Ottavino. Now, on opening day, the Rockies are hoping for a bounceback from Chris Iannetta or Tony Wolters to step up and be productive in 2019, Daniel Murphy to bring back his pre 2018 days, Brendan Rodgers to be their future star second baseman, and David Dahl to be fully healthy and be a consistent middle of the lineup bat. One of these things came true: David Dahl finished with an .877 OPS. But he also had an injury himself, too. The catcher spot remains weak, Daniel Murphy had an 86 wRC+, Brendan Rodgers was injured from June 25th to the end of the season.

This isn’t even talking about their pitching, either. The rotation went back to it’s pre 2017 days. Although Marquez (in terms of his FIP) and Gray continued to pitch well, they eventually had a season ending injury and there wasn’t a rotation behind them. Senzatela, Freeland (who was at one point sent down to AAA and later had a season ending injury), Peter Lambert, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Jeff Hoffman were some of the worst starters in the league last year. And the trio of Bryan Shaw ($8.5MM), Jake McGee ($8.5MM), and Wade Davis ($18MM) were paid a combined $35MM in 2019 to post a combined -0.6 fWAR. Although using WAR to judge relievers is less than ideal, it still shows that there is something wrong here. And Ian Desmond was just paid $15MM in 2019 and he has yet to put up a season where his WAR wasn’t negative. They still have to pay him at least $25MM ($23MM in the 2020-2021 seasons, $2MM buyout for 2022 season) too.

And now, it’s January 20th. The Rockies biggest move this offseason: signing Jose Mujica. They have spent $0 in free agency. They’re fresh off a 71 win season. All rumors that have surrounded Colorado have been trading Jon Gray and Nolan Arenado. Nothing about actually bringing in someone to help the Rockies win after they just spent $363MM on extensions to two players.

September 1st, remember that date: “It feels like a rebuild,” Nolan Arenado said. It basically is, Nolan. It’s so important he said this because he also said he doesn’t want to be a part of a rebuild. He wants a chance at a world series, like every player in MLB history. But the Rockies aren’t going to be in the world series, probably not even the playoffs, any time soon. They haven’t spent a dollar this offseason. And they have a lot of money tied up to negative WAR players. The fact that the talk of Colorado’s offseason has been about a potential trade of someone you just signed to an 8 year extension isn’t a good thing.

Remember when the Rockies WANTED the opt out after the 2021 season? And Arenado didn’t even have that as a priority? Yeah, everyone does. And it’s important to remember since now the Rockies have two years left of Arenado’s services before he decides whether to opt out or not. Will they be competitive in those two years? God knows, but logic says you should. However, Bridich and Co. say it’s smarter to shop around your franchise icon, then all of a sudden call off trade talks with that same player in mid-late January, who then goes public to make his trade request, and says he feels disrespected by that same Bridich and Co.

Now the Rockies have no leverage, as if they even had any to begin with. This should remind… everyone of the Giancarlo Stanton and Miami Marlins situation. The Marlins disappointed in 2015, 2016, and 2017 and Stanton goes public to request a trade after an MVP season in 2017, with 10 years remaining on his deal. But with the massive amounts of money still owed to him, the Marlins had no leverage. The Marlins were bashed for their return for Stanton, but that’s about what the Rockies are going to get for Arenado.

So, now the Rockies are here: They can either trade their disgruntled third baseman for a package like Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers (probably more than that, but still nothing like the package that was rumored from the Cardinals which was Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez, Matthew Liberatore, and Tyler O’Neill) and get bashed by media and fans. Or, they can keep their disgruntled third baseman knowing he doesn’t want to be there, not make the playoffs for his remaining two seasons, and lose him after 2021. Your choice, Colorado.