Big-money conservative groups have been pouring dollars into Republican primaries in many states. But in the contest to fill an open Georgia Senate seat — one of our 2014 hot races — they’ve largely stayed away so far.

Voters will decide between Georgia’s seven Republican and three Democratic candidates during the state’s primary election on May 20th. The two winners will go head-to-head this fall to replace two-term Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), though there could be a run-off if no candidate grabs a majority of the primary vote in one or both parties.

This is one of the few races in the nation where a Democrat has a strong shot at taking a Senate seat previously held by a Republican. Whether that Democrat — most likely Michelle Nunn, who is polling more than 30 points ahead of her competition — is facing off against an establishment Republican or one from the GOP’s tea party wing could be a major factor in deciding the general election contest.

The Republican field is downright messy. The frontrunners are a pair of business-aligned Republicans: Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.) and former Dollar General and Reebok CEO David Perdue.

Not far behind, though, are three conservative, tea party-aligned candidates, each with significant regional recognition: Reps. Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey (R-Ga.), and Karen Handel, who served as Georgia’s secretary of state and ran for governor in 2010.

Despite the disarray and opportunity, though, conservative outside spending groups that have been active in competitive primaries in states like North Carolina and Arkansas have largely stayed away from the Peach State.

The mainstream advantage

The only outside group that has come out in favor of a candidate and has spent money is Citizens for a Working America PAC, a super PAC that originally formed to support Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) in the 2012 cycle but ended up helping Mitt Romney, spending more than $600,000 in ads for him and against Obama in the race.

This cycle, the group is sticking with more establishment candidates. In a letter filed with the FCC on April 16th, the super PAC voiced its support for the pro-business Perdue. The group followed that up the next day with the launch of a $500,000 ad campaign attacking Kingston, the other pro-business frontrunner, for his support for policies ranging from lifting the debt ceiling to President Obama’s “Cash for Clunkers” program.

“Now Kingston wants a promotion to the Senate,” the ad says. “A promotion? Well,

conservatives have a message: Hey Jack, you’re not going back.”

Citizens for a Working America PAC hasn’t reported any donors for the 2014 election yet, but in 2012, the super PAC received much of its cash — $455,000 — from two 501(c)(4) political nonprofits that don’t have to disclose their donors: New Models, a Virginia-based political nonprofit run by former Sarah Palin aide Tim Crawford, and Citizens for a Working America, Inc., based in Dayton, Ohio.

So far, though, Perdue hasn’t much needed the super PAC support. The former CEO has spent more than $1.9 million of his own money on his campaign this cycle, the second-largest total of any Senate candidate and 56 percent of his campaign’s total haul.

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Despite that, Perdue only has about $950,000 in his campaign coffers. Kingston, meanwhile, has more than $2.1 million, more than any other candidate and enough to counter outside spending in the future. Kingston also has the endorsement of the big-spending U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which spent more than $35 million last election cycle; if the Chamber decides to start spending in Georgia, things could change quickly.

A limited conservative presence

But for more conservative candidates, outside spending has been sparse. Prominent conservative groups like FreedomWorks for America, and Club for Growth, active in other states, have been silent in Georgia.

The only conservative group that’s entered the race is a smaller group, the Ending Spending Action Fund, a super PAC largely funded by casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts. The group, which pledges to support candidates who “favor enhancing free enterprise, reducing the size of government, and balancing our nation’s budget,” spent more than $13 million in the 2012 cycle.

Ending Spending hasn’t targeted establishment Republicans, but instead has spent almost $1.2 million on ads blasting Gingrey, who has bona fide conservative credentials, including a 96 percent career rating from the American Conservative Union.

While the super PAC hasn’t endorsed a candidate in the race, it has criticized Gingrey for many of the the same issues that the pro-business Kingston was attacked for: earmarks, lifting the debt ceiling, and the “Cash for Clunkers” program, which Gingrey campaign manager Patrick Sebastian said was “straight out of Barack Obama’s liberal playbook.”

“Georgians will not let these Chicago-style tactics on leaders who have proven records in cutting spending, protecting our military and veterans, and fighting Obamacare stop them from supporting conservative Republicans like Phil Gingrey,” Sebastian said.

Other conservative groups, while not active now, are leaving their options open. Barney Keller, a spokesman for Club for Growth, said that his group was “watching the race.”

Not an easy win in November

Despite Georgia’s heavy Republican tilt, whoever ends up emerging from the the party’s field won’t have an easy time in the general election; in fact, he could be the underdog. The primary winner will almost certainly be up against Michelle Nunn, the former chief executive of the nonprofit Points of Light and the daughter of popular former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn (D). Nunn is currently up by more than 30 points in the polls over her closest opponent.

The latest polls show Nunn either ahead or in a near dead-heat with every Republican candidate. A win for the former nonprofit CEO would be a suprise in the conservative confines of Georgia, which hasn’t seen a Democratic senator in nearly 10 years. That may be why she’s already been targeted by the Ending Spending Action Fund even before the primary election. The group spent more than $300,000 lambasting Nunn for her support for Obamacare and higher taxes in a mid-April, tax day-themed ad

Nunn will be hoping for a competitive GOP primary, which could continue to drain the campaign funds of her rivals. She’s raised nearly $5.8 million this cycle, more than any other Georgia candidate, and currently has more than $3.9 million in cash on hand to spend.

See what other showdowns we’ve identified as hot races, using six criteria, here.

Image: David Perdue speaks with Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.) after a Republican debate in January. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)

Follow Robbie on Twitter at @robbiefeinberg



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