Updated 2/21

The birds and the boys

While most of the races heading into this weekend's Oscar ceremony appear to be locked up, there may be just enough uncertainty in the major categories to keep things interesting. Then again, that might be wishful thinking, but we'll know for sure when the 87th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, hosted for the first time by Neil Patrick Harris, airs Sunday at 8:30pm ET (5:30pm PT) on ABC.

If the experts are mostly correct in their Oscar predictions (as always, a big if), Wes Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel will take home more trophies than any other film this year. But not best picture. That category—as well as best director—appears to be a head-to-head match between Birdman and Boyhood.

Below, we've aggregated predictions from over 60 entertainment writers, critics, and awards experts, and compared them to the votes cast by over 3,000 Metacritic visitors who voted in our 6th annual Oscar poll. Also listed are the latest betting odds in each category as published by Bovada (as of Wednesday, February 18). Check our site Monday morning for the final results as we reveal which users and experts had the most accurate predictions. We'll also collect reviews of the broadcast from TV critics

Best picture and director

While the best director Oscar usually goes to the same film that wins best picture, the awards have been split 23 times in Academy Awards history, including in each of the past two years. And it could happen again this year, with each category basically a two-film race between Birdman and Boyhood. Metacritic users went with the latter, but experts (and oddsmakers) have been trending toward Birdman, thanks to that film's recent PGA win (among other momentum-building honors). And remember that Boyhood's 100 Metascore is no guarantee of the Oscar; the Academy frequently opts for films with lesser reviews.

Acting

Only one of the four acting categories is even remotely competitive: lead actor, where Eddie Redmayne has a sizable lead with the experts over Birdman's Michael Keaton (who was the choice of our users). A few experts think that Redmayne and Keaton will divide the vote, leaving Bradley Cooper an opportunity to sneak in for the win for his performance in the only one of those five movies that was a box office hit: American Sniper.

Lead Actress Odds Experts Users Julianne Moore Still Alice 1:50 100% 65% Reese Witherspoon Wild 12:1 0% 5% Rosamund Pike Gone Girl 25:1 0% 21% Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything 40:1 0% 5% Marion Cotillard Two Days, One Night 50:1 0% 3% Lead Actor Odds Experts Users Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything 1:4 74% 28% Michael Keaton Birdman 5:2 21% 58% Bradley Cooper American Sniper 12:1 5% 6% Benedict Cumberbatch The Imitation Game 28:1 0% 5% Steve Carell Foxcatcher 50:1 0% 3% Supporting Actress Odds Experts Users Patricia Arquette Boyhood 1:50 100% 75% Emma Stone Birdman 14:1 0% 13% Keira Knightley The Imitation Game 25:1 0% 6% Laura Dern Wild 25:1 0% 2% Meryl Streep Into the Woods 25:1 0% 4% Supporting Actor Odds Experts Users J.K. Simmons Whiplash 1:50 100% 79% Edward Norton Birdman 12:1 0% 10% Mark Ruffalo Foxcatcher 16:1 0% 3% Ethan Hawke Boyhood 33:1 0% 6% Robert Duvall The Judge 33:1 0% 2%

Writing

It looks like Wes Anderson will pick up his first Oscar win for his Grand Budapest Hotel screenplay, but the adapted category is a bit harder to predict. Remember, all other awards organizations treated Whiplash as an original screenplay, so it has yet to be in direct competition with the likes of The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything.

Original Screenplay Odds Experts Users Anderson/Guinness The Grand Budapest Hotel 1:2 77% 30% Iñárritu/Giacobone/Dinelaris/Bo Birdman 5:4 23% 48% Linklater Boyhood 10:1 0% 14% Frye/Futterman Foxcatcher 50:1 0% 1% Gilroy Nightcrawler 50:1 0% 7% Adapted Screenplay Odds Experts Users Graham Moore The Imitation Game 2:5 70% 29% Damien Chazelle Whiplash 5:2 25% 34% Anthony McCarten The Theory of Everything 5:1 2% 17% Jason Hall American Sniper 16:1 3% 12% Paul Thomas Anderson Inherent Vice 33:1 0% 8%

Animation

The LEGO Movie's loss is How to Train Your Dragon 2's gain, with the latter widely expected to win for animated feature thanks to the former's unexpected exclusion from the field. The animated short category also appears to have an overwhelming favorite in Feast, which is a Disney production. But remember that just a year ago another Disney animated short, Get a Horse!, was also an overwhelming favorite to win an Oscar, only to be upset by a lesser known competitor.

Documentaries

The two documentary categories also appear to be locked up, though the short film contests are always a bit tricky to predict accurately. The frontrunner there is the HBO production Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, which focuses on a suicide hotline for members of the military.

Other films

The foreign-language category is one where upsets can and do occur, though Poland's entry Ida, which deals in part with the Holocaust, would appear to be Academy-friendly material. The live-action short competition is another one that is always difficult to predict—it is the only category this year where all five nominees received support from at least one expert—so don't necessarily read The Phone Call's big lead with the experts as a sure thing. Still, that favorite features two well-known leads in Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent, which doesn't hurt its chances.

Foreign Language Film Odds Experts Users Ida Poland 4:9 83% 41% Leviathan Russia 7:4 5% 40% Wild Tales Argentina 7:1 8% 7% Timbuktu Mauritania 20:1 3% 9% Tangerines Estonia 33:1 0% 3% Live-Action Short Film Odds Experts Users The Phone Call 4:9 76% 38% Boogaloo and Graham 4:1 11% 16% Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak) 11:2 2% 12% Parvaneh 7:1 9% 10% Aya 10:1 2% 24%

Music

Original Score Odds Experts Users Johann Johannsson The Theory of Everything 5:8 58% 27% Alexandre Desplat The Grand Budapest Hotel 5:4 32% 27% Alexandre Desplat The Imitation Game 9:1 3% 8% Hans Zimmer Interstellar 12:1 7% 36% Gary Yershon Mr. Turner 50:1 0% 2% Original Song Odds Experts Users "Glory" from Selma

by John Legend and Common 1:5 93% 59% "Everything Is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie

by Patterson/Bartholomew/Harriton/Lonely Island 4:1 5% 30% "Lost Stars" from Begin Again

by Alexander/Brisebois/Lashley/Southwood 9:1 0% 6% "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell...

by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond 10:1 2% 4% "Grateful" from Beyond the Lights

by Diane Warren 33:1 0% 2%

Technical categories

Cinematography Odds Experts Users Emmanuel Lubezki Birdman 1:6 97% 67% Robert D. Yeoman The Grand Budapest Hotel 7:2 0% 24% Roger Deakins Unbroken 12:1 0% 4% Ryszard Lenczewski and Lukasz Zal Ida 14:1 2% 3% Dick Pope Mr. Turner 25:1 2% 3% Costume Design Odds Experts Users The Grand Budapest Hotel 1:10 91% 65% Into the Woods 9:2 7% 21% Maleficent 12:1 0% 7% Mr. Turner 20:1 2% 4% Inherent Vice 25:1 0% 4% Film Editing Odds Experts Users Sandra Adair Boyhood 1:2 83% 46% Tom Cross Whiplash 2:1 14% 21% Joel Cox & Gary Roach American Sniper 15:2 3% 11% William Goldenberg The Imitation Game 12:1 0% 4% Barney Pilling The Grand Budapest Hotel 14:1 0% 18% Makeup & Hairstyling Odds Experts Users The Grand Budapest Hotel 1:7 70% 44% Guardians of the Galaxy 7:2 16% 39% Foxcatcher 8:1 14% 18% Production Design Odds Experts Users The Grand Budapest Hotel 1:7 97% 59% Into the Woods 4:1 2% 7% Mr. Turner 10:1 0% 2% Interstellar 20:1 2% 28% The Imitation Game 25:1 0% 4% Sound Editing Experts Users American Sniper 78% 21% Interstellar 16% 45% Birdman 5% 23% The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 2% 8% Unbroken 0% 2% Sound Mixing Experts Users Whiplash 41% 28% Interstellar 14% 36% American Sniper 28% 17% Birdman 17% 17% Unbroken 0% 2% Visual Effects Odds Experts Users Interstellar 1:3 69% 60% Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 9:4 28% 19% Guardians of the Galaxy 7:1 3% 16% Captain America: The Winter Soldier 33:1 0% 2% X-Men: Days of Future Past 33:1 0% 4%

List of experts

The expert predictions compiled above come from the following sources (note that not every expert made picks in every category):