DUBUQUE, Iowa — Rural voters helped President Donald Trump win Iowa in 2016. And despite rising concerns about the economic impact of several rounds of tariffs, they’ve been willing to endure the ill effects of his trade policies, trusting he’ll ultimately deliver.

But the president’s sudden announcement this week that he’ll give $12 billion in subsidies to farmers is setting off a new wave of anxiety — a deep sense of apprehension over Trump’s unpredictability on trade and questions over whether the White House has any plan at all.


“I think the hope was that the tough talk, even with some of our allies, would translate into real results on trade,” Iowa Farmers Union President Aaron Heley Lehman said of Trump winning over rural voters in Iowa in 2016. “And instead, there really hasn’t been a plan. I don’t think that farmers feel like there’s a plan to get out from where they are now. I think that there’s a lot of people who feel like they’re floating out here at the whim of the tariffs and the trade talk, not knowing what direction we’re going to go.”

Trump will try to assuage some of those worries when he arrives here Thursday before heading to southern Illinois, just two weeks after Vice President Mike Pence also made hand-holding stops in the two states — both of which stand to suffer greatly from a drawn-out trade war. The president will be visiting two Republican congressmen whose districts whiplashed from voting for Barack Obama in 2012 to voting overwhelmingly for Trump four years later — and their fate in November may be closely tied to how local voters feel about Trump’s first two years in office.

With as many as six battleground House races in Iowa and Illinois this fall — a quarter of the seats necessary to deliver the House to the Democratic Party — there are few regions that carry as much political significance.

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The presidential trip takes place amid growing unease across the Midwest — even among those typically loyal to Trump — related to Trump’s sudden embrace of subsidies. Industry leaders have long said they’ve wanted trade inequity addressed, but the growing mantra here has been a call for “trade not aid.”

“I think there is an uneasiness: What if this president’s wrong? What if he’s not successful?” said Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association. “There doesn’t appear to be any, any movement forward, in any public way. Are we settling in because we just don’t see any escape or resolutions in the foreseeable future? That’s scary.”

Leeds said the $12 billion in subsidies could buy Trump time politically, placating nervousness in states critical to the GOP’s midterm prospects, especially since the checks are expected to arrive not long before November.

But the value of those checks, when divvied up — there are some 40,000 soybean farmers in Iowa alone — is in question. Leeds said he heard from one farmer who calculated he’d likely receive just a few thousand dollars in subsidies, even as he’s down $150,000 for the season.

An offer of free money is a sign, local officials say, that not only is the tariff war not working, it’s also not ending.

“I think people want to understand: where it’s headed, what the timeline might be, what the strategy is,” said Doug Neumann, executive director of the Cedar Rapids Metro Economic Alliance. “I think we appreciated the recognition that tariffs are in fact hurting the economy and there was a response to that. But it’s always important to couple that with a resolution on overall trade policy issues.”

Lehman, whose organization represents some 700 family farmers, said many of his members backed Trump after harboring growing frustration with the agricultural economy under Democratic leadership.

But Lehman said he’s seeing the beginning of a shift — heightened concern after news about one-time subsidies. While they’re necessary to offset the pain of the Trump-imposed tariffs, Lehman said the approach raises the question of what long-term solution is in the cards.

“We’d love to see the policies and practices of this administration match those that we came to believe they would put in place. It’s been a much more scattershot approach,” Lehman said. “There’s no guarantee that the folks who were supporters of Donald Trump because he tapped into that discontent are going to see that there is a way out, or a path forward just by following the same policies.”

The White House on Wednesday said Trump plans to address trade issues during his Midwest visits and that the president has a vested interest in protecting farmers and the local economy. In his visit to Dubuque, Trump will take part in a roundtable that will include Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and Republican Rep. Rod Blum, both of whom are facing serious challenges in the fall.

The two Iowa Republicans are walking a tightrope — they must express their concerns about the local economic impact of tariffs while stopping short of criticizing the president. That adds another layer of difficulty for members like Blum in northeastern Iowa’s 1st Congressional District: He’s already marked as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country. In recent weeks, political handicappers have downgraded GOP prospects in several other Iowa races, including in the 3rd District and the governor’s race.

But Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said it’s unrealistic to ask the president to lay out a specific plan when there are so many variables, including working with foreign governments. Kaufmann said most farmers he talks to have long believed trade policy is unfair and are willing to give Trump time to right the ship.

“The president has tried to unravel what the Democrats have ignored for the last two terms. What was the plan from Barack Obama, for crying out loud?” Kaufmann said. “It is so refreshing to have a president that I know is listening to Iowans. I know this aid package is coming from Donald Trump because he gets it.”

In Illinois, where the president will visit Granite City, Trump will head to friendly territory, visiting Granite City Works, a steel plant that recently reactivated after he enacted tariffs on Mexico, Canada and other nations; it’s among the few beneficiaries of Trump’s trade war.

But the administration’s trade war has cut both ways for two-term Republican Rep. Mike Bost, in a district the president won by nearly 15 points in 2016. Other companies in the area have suffered from the tariff wars, as have southern Illinois farmers, emboldening Democrats who see Bost’s November challenger, Brendan Kelly, as a formidable opponent.

Kelly has taken a nuanced approach to Trump’s trade policies, applauding a new wave of business at Granite City Steel Works but blaming Bost for helping create “a lot of anxiety around the 12th Congressional District” for granting Trump blanket power in tariff decisions.

“Let’s find a way to smartly and strategically access markets overseas,” Kelly said. “This all-out barroom brawl with everybody — just throwing fists and not sure where the target is going to be — is just going to end up hurting everybody.”

A move by China this week bolstered that argument, delivering sobering news to those who initially applauded Trump’s decision on subsidies.

“China announced a $199 billion infrastructure spending bill to spur their economy. We’re all talking about the $12 billion,” said Leeds of the Iowa Soybean Association. “We’re playing with squirt guns while they’re using cannons.”