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Government and military officials have downplayed those concerns, saying the central government in Baghdad has approved the mission and Canada has told the Kurds it strongly supports a unified Iraq.

But the Kurds have refused to return land recaptured from ISIL, but which is claimed by the central government. There are also fears that once ISIL is defeated, the Kurds will use their new military training and equipment to declare independence.

Violence has already erupted in at least once. While Vance was touring Canada’s mission, Kurdish fighters and forces allied with Baghdad were battling each other, killing 10 people. A tense ceasefire between the two sides is now in place.

“We need to continue to recognize the role that the Kurds have played in fighting (ISIL),” Natali said. “However, there’s a larger strategic end-state here and there’s a lot of subnational groups, including the Kurds, jockeying for recognition and authority in some of these ungoverned spaces.”

The Liberal government has repeatedly sidestepped questions about what would happen if Iraq’s Kurds declared independence. Masoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Region, stoked the flames Feb. 2 when he called for a referendum to gauge interest in independence.

Speaking to CTV in Iraq, Vance said Iraq’s long-term political make-up was of secondary concern to defeating ISIL.

“While we’re here and while we’re performing this function to rid Iraq of ISIL, I think it’s in all of our best interests to have the political unity necessary to deal with this threat,” he said. “Where after Iraq decides to go in terms of its political laydown is up to Iraq.”

But Natali said what happens now will ultimately decide whether peace and stability return to Iraq sooner, rather than later.

“You’re always going to have second- and third-order consequences,” she said. “And in this case, optics matter.”



Ottawa Citizen

lberthiaume@postmedia.com

Twitter.com/leeberthiaume