T he Europeans are arguing with the Russians and the Chinese, but are also squabbling among themselves over how to deal with Iran. The Americans are hectoring everyone. France and Germany worry about London breaking ranks and joining Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, a move which would destroy faltering efforts to salvage the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal forged over years of diplomacy and actively being sabotaged by the United States.

Meanwhile, day by day, Iran’s nuclear programme grows. Last weekend Iran surpassed the threshold of 1,200kg of stockpiled reactor-grade uranium which, if Tehran were to make a headlong rush towards weaponisation, could be used to fuel a single nuclear warhead.

“Iran is increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium with full speed,” Ali Asghar Zarean, an Iranian atomic energy official, boasted last weekend.

Though the threat of an all-out war has receded following the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani and retaliatory airstrikes on a US airbase in Iraq, experts and diplomats say the crisis between Washington and Tehran is far from over.

The situation remains fraught with many dangers, a potentially explosive slow-burning crisis which could eventually overshadow all others.

“There’s a consensus that we want things to cool down a bit,” a senior European foreign policy official tells The Independent. “We may end up in a doomsday scenario, but we’re not there yet. We’re trying to avoid that.”

Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Show all 23 1 /23 Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University Iranian police officers take position while protesters gather in front of Amir Kabir University AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University Iranians demonstrate following a tribute for the victims of the Ukraine Boeing 737 crash in front of the Amirkabir University in the capital Tehran EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University Iranian police dispersed students chanting "radical" slogans during a gathering in Tehran to honour the 176 people killed when an airliner was mistakenly shot down AFP via Getty Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University - People hold flowers as tear gas fired by police rises Online videos purported to show that Iranian security forces fired both live ammunition and tear gas to disperse demonstrators protesting against the Islamic Republic's initial denial that it shot down a Ukrainian jetliner AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University Iranian police officers take position while protesters gather AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University AFP correspondents said hundreds of students had gathered early in the evening to pay respects to those killed in the air disaster ISNA/AFP via Getty Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University Iranian protester prepares to throw a tear gas canister back at police AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University A protester confronts an Iranian police officer AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University epa08120223 Iranians protest to show their sympathy with victims of Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 in front of the Amir Kabir University in Tehran, Iran, 11 January 2020. Media reported that hundreds of Iranians protests in Tehran in solidarity with victims of the Ukraine plane as Iranian military released a statement claiming that Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 was shot down due to human error. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University Iranian police officers take position while protesters gathe AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University Iranians light candles for victims EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Anti-government protest at Amirkabir University epa08120526 Iranians protest to show their sympathy to victims of Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 in front of the Amir Kabir University in Tehran, Iran, 11 January 2020. The Iranian military released a statement on 11 January 2020 that Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 was shot down due to 'human error.' The passemger jet en route from Tehran to Kiev crashed minutes after takeoff on 08 January 2020, all all 167 passengers and nine crew members aboard were killed. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protest in Tehran People burn British and Israeli flags during a protest in front of the British embassy, in Tehran. Hundreds of Iranian hardliners gathered for a protest against Britain, a day after the UK ambassador to Iran Robert Macaire was detained after attending a a vigil for the victims of Ukraine passenger jet EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protestBritish embassy protest in Tehran Chanting "Death to Britain", up to 200 protesters rallied outside the mission a day after the brief arrest of British ambassador Rob Macaire AFP via Getty Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protest in Tehran epa08122502 Iranian hardliners shout slogans as they gather in front of the British embassy during an anti-Britain protest, in Tehran, Iran, 12 January 2020. According to reports, hundreds of Iranian hardliners gathered for a protest against Britain, a day after the UK ambassador to Iran Robert Macaire was detained after attending a a vigil for the victims of Ukraine passenger jet. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protest in Tehran Iranian demonstrators hold placards bearing the images of slain military commander Qasem Soleimani and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in front of the British embassy in the capital Tehran on January 12, 2020 following the British ambassador's arrest for allegedly attending an illegal demonstration. - Chanting "Death to Britain", up to 200 protesters rallied outside the mission a day after the brief arrest of British ambassador Rob Macaire at a memorial for those killed when a Ukraine airliner was shot down. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images) ATTA KENARE AFP via Getty Images Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Protesters chant slogans and hold up posters of Gen. Qassem Soleimani while burning representations of British and Israeli flags, during a demonstration in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2020. A candlelight ceremony late Saturday in Tehran turned into a protest, with hundreds of people chanting against the country's leaders â€” including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei â€” and police dispersing them with tear gas. Police briefly detained the British ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire, who said he went to the Saturday vigil without knowing it would turn into a protest. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi) Ebrahim Noroozi AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protest in Tehran epa08122741 Iranian hardliners gather in front of the British embassy during an anti-Britain protest, in Tehran, Iran, 12 January 2020. According to reports, hundreds of Iranian hardliners gathered for a protest against Britain, a day after the UK ambassador to Iran Robert Macaire was detained after attending a a vigil for the victims of Ukraine passenger jet. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west A hardline protester holds up a placard during a demonstration in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2020. A candlelight ceremony late Saturday in Tehran turned into a protest, with hundreds of people chanting against the country's leaders â€” including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei â€” and police dispersing them with tear gas. Police briefly detained the British ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire, who said he went to the Saturday vigil without knowing it would turn into a protest. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi) Ebrahim Noroozi AP Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protest in Tehran epa08122743 Iranian hardliners gather in front of the British embassy during an anti-Britain protest, in Tehran, Iran, 12 January 2020. According to reports, hundreds of Iranian hardliners gathered for a protest against Britain, a day after the UK ambassador to Iran Robert Macaire was detained after attending a a vigil for the victims of Ukraine passenger jet. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protest in Tehran epa08122745 Iranian hardliners gather in front of the British embassy during an anti-Britain protest, in Tehran, Iran, 12 January 2020. According to reports, hundreds of Iranian hardliners gathered for a protest against Britain, a day after the UK ambassador to Iran Robert Macaire was detained after attending a a vigil for the victims of Ukraine passenger jet. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west British embassy protest in Tehran epa08122786 Iranian hardliners gather in front of the British embassy during an anti-Britain protest, in Tehran, Iran, 12 January 2020. According to reports, hundreds of Iranian hardliners gathered for a protest against Britain, a day after the UK ambassador to Iran Robert Macaire was detained after attending a a vigil for the victims of Ukraine passenger jet. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH EPA Protests in Iran over downing of plane and tensions with the west Protesters chant slogans while holding up posters of Gen. Qassem Soleimani during a demonstration in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2020. AP

Indeed, as bad as the situation with Iran is, it could easily get far worse. The potential sources of friction between Washington and Tehran and their respective allies are many.

Iranian-backed forces and allies in Syria are conquering Idlib province in an unrelenting offensive that has “appalled and horrified” Washington, James Jeffrey, US Syria and Isis envoy, told reporters on Thursday.

In Yemen, Iranian-allied Houthi fighters are holding their own against US-backed Saudi forces and their local allies. And in Iraq and Lebanon, Iran’s allies are suppressing protests tacitly supported by Washington.

Iranian lawmakers and officials, insisting they are being backed into a corner, are also increasingly warning they could leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the five-decades-old agreement by which countries forego atomic weapons in exchange for access to peaceful nuclear technology. Western diplomats are not taking the threat lightly.

“If this is escalated, exiting the NPT would be one of their options,” the European official says. “They could go down the path of North Korea. We’re not not sure if they would; they could just be trying to build leverage. But I don’t think we want to find out if this is a bluff or not.”

Donald Trump’s 2018 move to exit the JCPOA and reimpose sanctions sparked the ballooning crisis. The administration’s scheme, peddled by a narrow coterie of Washington hawks who have the president’s ear, was meant to strangle the Iranian economy, impose limits on Iran’s nuclear programme, starve its overseas paramilitary operations and missile programme of funds, and force Iran back into negotiations for a better, broader deal.

But the plan appears to have so far failed on all counts.

Iran has demanded that US sanctions are removed before talks reopen.

After an initial free-fall following the resumption of sanctions, Iran’s currency has stabilised, its stock market is up 138 per cent since the beginning of the Iranian calendar year last March, and there are indications that China is surreptitiously buying increasing quantities of Iran’s oil, the mainstay of its economy, according to experts.

Arguing that Europeans are not moving fast enough to offer Tehran economic incentives to stick to the deal, Iran has begun to steadily break its JCPOA commitments, increasing the number of centrifuges it spins and breaking through limits on fuel stockpiles.

“Iran’s ‘breakout time’ – the amount of time it would take for Iran to assemble enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon after a decision to do so – is now below the one-year timeframe that the JCPOA was designed to maintain,” said a note issued this week by the Soufan Group, an intelligence and risk-management consultancy.

The American withdrawal from the JCPOA has also triggered a cycle of ever-escalating threats and armed confrontations between Iran and the US.

Last summer Iran downed a pricey US drone along the northern shores of the Persian Gulf and allegedly attacked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while it or its Yemeni allies launched a devastating and complex drone attack on Saudi oil facilities.

The president doesn’t want a war. In fact, the only underlying principle of the Iran policy is that Trump truly doesn’t want a war with Iran Jeffrey Lewis, nuclear non-proliferation expert and former US defence official

This year the US assassinated Soleimani as he was departing the international airport in Baghdad, and Iran retaliated on 8 January by launching airstrikes on a US base in Iraq, injuring at least 50 service people, 19 of whom were so badly hurt they had still not been returned to active duty by last week.

For months, European officials had been counting on Emmanuel Macron, the French president, to lay on the charm and talk some sense into Mr Trump and Hassan ​Rouhani, the Iranian president. That approach was a flop. Now they are pinning their hopes on Boris Johnson, who shares some of the same populist attributes. But few are hopeful he can achieve much.

More plausible is the possibility of waiting for Mr Trump to lose the US election in November, and for Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren to return to the deal come 20 January 2021.

“At the moment we’re at a stalemate,” says Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The diplomatic initiatives are focused on damage limitation rather than any sort of political breakthrough. The best we can hope for with the multiple tracks of diplomacy is that you extend the cooling off period before the next round of escalation.”

Iran watchers and Persian Gulf security experts believe another military confrontation between Iran and the US is likely. Despite Mr Trump’s promise to “end the endless wars”, the US has increased its military presence in the Middle East by more than 13,000 troops.

Iran is doing little to ease tensions, matching every American provocation with its own.

Richard Ratcliffe says 'the government needs to be tougher on Iran' as he takes their daughter to see the PM

It recently conducted its first-ever joint military exercises with China and Russia. It is also reportedly preparing fresh satellite launches with rockets that non-proliferation experts believe could be trial runs for intercontinental delivery systems.

Overwhelmed by Brexit, and international crises from Libya to Ukraine, European leaders and foreign services have little capacity to deal with the burgeoning crisis between Tehran and Washington. But they know they must.

Talks with Iranian officials over the country’s missile programme and regional deployment of armed forces, have become more intermittent, and have reached a dead end. But in some ways, dialogue with Washington has become as futile, as the complicated dynamic of the 2020 election cycle enters the fray.

More than three years into the Trump administration, most European leaders still don’t act or speak as if they understand how dangerously adrift and incoherent US foreign policy has become, especially on matters pertaining to Iran.

In part, they’ve never encountered a US leader who fails to abide by conventional American tenets of national interest, and who appears only concerned with his own political and financial wellbeing.

“The Trump administration has no idea what it’s doing,” says Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear non-proliferation expert and former US defence official who now teaches at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.

“They have a strategy that I believe is entirely domestic,” says Mr Lewis, who is a vocal supporter of the JCPOA. “It’s all about talking tough for a US audience. They repeat ‘maximum pressure’ like it’s some kind of mantra.”

At the moment we’re at a stalemate… The best we can hope for with the multiple tracks of diplomacy is that you extend the cooling off period before the next round of escalation Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations

Mr Lewis says the strategy appears to be designed by Washington hawks with the aim of triggering a war that could lead to regime change in Tehran.

“But the president doesn’t want a war,” he says. “In fact, the only underlying principle of the Iran policy is that Trump truly doesn’t want a war with Iran.”

Worried about Iran’s expanding nuclear programme, the UK, France and Germany, the so-called E3, last month triggered a dispute-resolution mechanism in the JCPOA that could bring Iran before the United Nations Security Council and effectively torpedo the deal for good.

The Trump administration had been pressuring UK and European diplomats for months to invoke the measure, threatening to slap 20 per cent tariffs on their automobile exports to the US if they did not. But they were inclined to do so anyway, in part to maintain their credibility in the face of Iran’s increasing belligerence, but also because of their own lack of remaining options and diplomatic channels.

Adding to the complications are cracks within the ranks of the JCPOA’s remaining supporters. Moscow and Beijing are adopting the Iranian position that the dispute-resolution mechanism should first address the reimposition of US sanctions. There are questions about the UK’s post-Brexit stance on the JCPOA. After 31 January, does the E3 still exist?

“The E3 is a group of EU member states but formally and institutionally independent from the European Union,” says one EU official. “So it boils down to the future intentions of the individual member states.”

There is also some confusion as to what the dispute mechanism actually is.