Disinfection at the Chinese spaceport

The COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak seems to have upended the normal flow of life the world over, with international flights being suspended, borders being shut, public events cancelled and authorities recommending citizens to go on self-quarantine and work remotely. Airlines have been hit most severely, with the worldwide airline income plummeting by $4–5 billion. China’s air travel sector has taken perhaps the biggest hit of all, with the possible loss estimated to be a whopping $60 billion. Such has been the blow to the air transportation. According to one research, as many as 5 million businesses may bear the brunt of the coronavirus.

What may the pandemic consequences be for the space industry?

Let us first recap on the COVID-19 basics. The virus is spread among humans via respiratory droplets from sneezing and coughing as well as direct contact. The COVID-19 survival period outside a host is yet unknown, but it is somewhere between a few hours to 9 days for other members of the coronavirus family. Consequently, freight transportation has not suffered as much as have international air travel and tourism.

It must be noted that China has so far taken the biggest hit from the virus, but the Chinese authorities imposed unprecedented quarantine measures very early on, which seems to have quelled the outbreak inside China. On the downside, the virus quickly spilled out to other countries, such as Italy, South Korea, the US. The virus eventually engulfed all European nations and many other countries across the globe, and is now classified as a pandemic.

It is of little surprise that China’s space sector was also hurt by the virus. Thus, with ‘over 40 launches’ announced by CASC for 2020, China should be able to pull off no more than 6 or 7 in Q1, according to some experts.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) on February 3, 2020

The main reason for that has been the draconian quarantine in some of China’s provinces, which basically stalled most freight transportation domestically. ExPace and a number of other space transportation enterprises based in the virus-hit city of Wuhan in the landlocked Hubei province had to suspend operations for over 40 days. They have recently been reported to have resumed work.

Other Chinese space tech companies such as i-Space and LandSpace have sailed through the COVID-19 hurdle. The Hubei-based businesses had to look for parts suppliers elsewhere, as well as take anti-epidemic measures, but overall, they managed to continue operations uninterrupted.

As of this writing (mid-March 2020), the Chinese space sector has almost recovered from the implications of the epidemic and the quarantine. The Chinese government has in the meantime launch a number of initiatives in a bid to reduce the pernicious effects of the pandemic on the economic growth, including the nation’s space sector.

ExPace on March 14, 2020

Things have not been so promising for the EU’s space sector, though, despite much higher levels of cooperation between the EU nations. For example, 20 nations contribute to the famous Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket.

France’s Guiana Space Centre in Kourou, French Guiana has been on quarantine since early March. Despite this, full-scale launch preparations continue there. With the EU nations going on a joint quarantine, temporary disruptions in the supply chain cannot be ruled out, but, given Arianespace’s low launch cadence, this should have little impact on the European launch campaigns.

ESA and Roscosmos have recently moved their joint ExoMars mission from its planned launch date in the summer of 2020 to the next launch window in August-October 2022. The coronavirus has been cited as one the issues leading to the launch delay. This is likely to be the only serious impact on the planned launch cadence for the European space sector.

There is large scale cooperation in the rocket industry outside the EU as well. For instance, the first stage of the US-built Antares rocket uses Ukrainian-built core, propellant tanks, feed lines and other associated equipment, as well as a Russian-built engine, the NK-33. But shipments of the internationally built hardware for the Orbital Sciences Corporation (now part of Northrop Grumman) are even less frequent than those for Ariane 5.

The American aerospace giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin have advised their employees to limit their travel only to critical business trips, while Blue Origin advises its employees to work remotely, if possible. Both Boeing and LM continue full scale business operations.

NASA has been more cautious, with its Ames Research Center and Marshall Space Flight Center employees now ordered to work from home. SpaceX has been moving forward with regular business operations, with CEO Elon Musk tweeting out on March 16 that the chances of dying from C19 were ‘vastly’ less than the risk of death from driving your car home’. He was also reported to have written an email to his employees advising them to stay home and take care of themselves.

All in all, the world space industry has lost around 5 launches in Q1 2020 and may lose another 1 or 2 in Q2 due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, but these numbers may be won back even before 2020 is out.

Rounding up, below are some quick safety tips to stay protected against the coronavirus (crucial not only for the space industry folk!):

- Avoid close contact with other people

- Avoid touching your nose, mouth and eyes with your hands

- Remember to thoroughly wash your hands with soap on a regular basis.

- Wearing a facemask is not terribly efficient. Wear it only if you are already sick in order to protect others from the disease.

- Avoid public space unless absolutely necessary

- Stay home if you are sick, and get medical care immediately

Don’t panic!