Last year, I did my first ever MLS season preview. I was an inexperienced soccer fan at that point, really just coming into my own in terms of having a deeper understanding of the sport. I followed MLS and the major European leagues to a degree, sure, but my knowledge base didn’t run too deep. Until, finally last year, I decided to take the full on dive. No team in MLS had sparked my interest quite the way NYCFC did and I jumped on the wagon immediately. The past year saw me join the MLS community in full force, writing for several NYCFC sites including the NYCFC Fan Podcast, Skyscraper Blues, and even my own site here. It was wonderful, I attended nearly every NYCFC home match of the season as a season ticket holder (as well as the two derby matches at Red Bull Arena), and watched every other match on television, including matches from every other MLS team. It was the best sports year of my life and probably my best year as a writer as well. Now, with football season over (and my Steelers dragged down by injuries) and the MLS season less than a month away from kickoff, it’s time to try my hand again at figuring out the upcoming year.

Taking a look back at last seasons predictions, I’m surprised to say I actually did pretty well in my predictions! In the Eastern Conference, I had the playoff teams as follows, from the #1 seed to #6: New England, Columbus, Toronto, DC United, NY Red Bulls, and NYCFC. Unfortunately, our boys in blue let me down, but substitute them for Montreal and I nearly picked the entire field correctly (albeit with slightly different seeding). In the Western Conference, I had #1-#6 as follows: LA Galaxy, FC Dallas, Seattle, Real Salt Lake, Portland, and Vancouver. Again, substitute Salt Lake for Sporting KC and I would’ve been spot on. 10 out of 12 for someone who had never closely followed MLS isn’t too shabby I think. The playoff picks themselves were a bit off base with FC Dallas beating Toronto in the MLS Cup finals, as was the Supporters’ Shield (New England in my picks), but nobody can pick ’em all.

Similarly to last year, I’ll be breaking up this preview into two parts. Part one focuses on the Eastern Conference, while part two will follow shortly and contain the Western Conference and THE BIG PREDICTIONS! I’ll be examining each team in alphabetical order, including projected formations, projected starting XI, key players, predicted finish, and three pros and cons for the team’s upcoming year. As I began doing this as a way to educate myself and as I hope to encourage others to do the same, I’ll include some information about the MLS season format and how formations are written out. MLS had it’s most successful season ever last year, and I only expect it to grow further and welcome all the new fans that will bring in!

Here’s a general breakdown of an MLS season: There are two conferences of ten teams each. Each team plays a 34 game schedule, one match against teams in the opposing conference and two or three matches against teams in their own conference. A win is 3 points, a draw is 1 point, and a loss is 0 points. The standings in each conference are done by total points. Much like the NFL, the top six teams in each conference make the playoffs, with the top two seeds getting byes and the remaining four seeds playing in 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 match-ups. The highest remaining seed plays the #2 seed in the quarterfinals and the lower remaining seed plays the #1 seed. The winners of those two matches then meet in the semi-finals and the winners of that match-up make the MLS Cup Finals. There is also a trophy for the team finishing with the highest amount of points in the MLS called the Supporter’s Shield.

(As a note, formations are written in the following fashion: They do not include the goalkeeper and run from back to front. Meaning a 4-5-1 formation indicates that there are 4 defenders, 5 midfielders, and 1 attacker)

With that said, let’s take a look at the East, now in it’s second year of NYCFC and Orlando City, with the Columbus Crew as reigning conference champions. Once again, nobody can pick them all, so don’t kill me if I’m horribly off-base!

Eastern Conference

Chicago Fire:

2015 Result: 8-20-6 (10th in East, 20th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Brandon Vincent (Draft), Jonathan Campbell (Draft), John Kappelhof (Groningen), Nick LaBrocca (Free Agency), Joao Meira (Free)

Key Transfers Out: Jack Harrison (NYCFC), Jeff Larentowicz (Option), Harry Shipp (Montreal)

Key Players: Brandon Vincent, David Accam, Gilberto

Predicted Finish: 9th in the East

Breakdown:

Chicago had a rough 2015, finishing dead last in both the Eastern Conference and MLS. The good news is there’s nowhere to go but up, the bad news is that it’s a hell of a climb. They’ve started off 2016 on the right path however, with a very successful draft consisting of the great selections of Brandon Vincent and Jonathan Campbell, who’ll likely have immediate impacts. They’ve also managed to maintain a core roster not dissimilar to what they had last year. I’m the first to preach consistency and how it helps teams who have it (Red Bulls) and hurts teams who don’t (NYCFC). However, they’ll have to overcome the surprise trade of young midfielder Harry Shipp, who’s off to Montreal. There’s also the question of whether the team did enough to make a significant improvement. Outside the draft, they added a few pieces, namely John Kappelhof of Groningen and Joao Meira on a free transfer, but that’s about it. Should there be improvement? Yes. Will it be enough to push for the last playoff spot? Likely not.

Columbus Crew SC:

2015 Result: 15-11-8 (2nd in East, 4th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Corey Ashe (Free Agency), Conor Casey (Free Agency), Ola Kamara (Austria Wien), Amro Tarek (Loan)

Key Transfers Out: Jack McInerney (Portland), Emanuel Pogatetz (Option)

Key Players: Federico Higuain, Kei Kamara, Ethan Finlay

Predicted Finish: 2nd in East

Breakdown:

Columbus comes into the year riding the high of an appearance in the MLS Cup finals and the belief they can return again. They’re off to a good start in making that happen. As previously noted, stability is key, and when your only key losses are Jack McInerney and Emanuel Pogatetz, you’re in a good place. Add to that the incoming players: Corey Ashe, Conor Casey, Ola Kamara, and Amro Tarek, and you have a team that if anything is poised to get better. They could run into some problems though, especially if they don’t work out their contract issue with star striker Kei Kamara. Beyond that, they’ll have to deal at times with significant call-ups to the USMNT, with Tchani, Finlay, and possibly Trapp all being tapped for international duty, putting a decent stress on that midfield depth. Will it be enough to surpass the Red Bulls? Probably not, but second in the East and a first round bye sounds good to me. Also, those new kits are an abomination.

DC United:

2015 Result: 15-13-6 (4th in East, 8th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Lamar Neagle (Seattle), Marcelo Sarvas (Colorado), Rob Vincent (Pittsburgh)

Key Transfers Out: Eddie Johnson (Retired), Perry Kitchen (Out of Contract), Chris Pontius (Philadelphia), Conor Doyle (Colorado)

Key Players: Lamar Neagle, Fabian Espindola, Bill Hamid

Predicted Finish: 3rd in East

Breakdown:

DC United made the playoffs in 2015 (good), but were knocked out in the conference semifinals by the Red Bulls (bad), and that can only be disappointing as the team led MLS at one point before going 5-8-2 in their last 15 matches (ugly). Things tend towards the median, so DC probably wasn’t the best team in MLS when they sat at the top of the standings, but they probably weren’t as bad as the finish to the season indicated either. After ending up in 4th in the East, they’re probably right about where they belong and should be in that vicinity again. The losses of Chris Pontius and Perry Kitchen should be mitigated somewhat by the arrival of Lamar Neagle, Luciano Acosta, and Marcelo Sarvas, but that represents a significant turnover in the starting XI. They’ll also have to deal with the extended loss of Bill Hamid, who is out 4-6 months after knee surgery, leaving Andrew Dykstra as the man between the posts. Overall, they’re a playoff team, but they’re also not rising above Columbus or the Red Bulls, anywhere from 3rd-6th is reasonable and I’m having some faith and sticking them at 3rd.

Montreal Impact:

2015 Result: 15-13-6 (3rd in East, 7th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Harry Shipp (Chicago), Kyle Fisher (Draft)

Key Transfers Out: Justin Mapp (Out of Contract), Nigel Reo-Coker (Termination), Kenny Cooper (Option), Dilly Duka (Out of Contract)

Key Players: Harry Shipp, Didier Drogba, Laurent Ciman

Predicted Finish: 4th in East

Breakdown:

Montreal didn’t start 2015 too strongly, though the CONCACAF Champions League finals run didn’t help them in MLS. They really rounded into form in the second half of the season, however, finishing off 9-5-3 in their last 17 matches. The arrival of Didier Drogba was a huge spur in that success and the fact that he’s ultimately decided to stay for the last year of his contract rather than leave is a huge boost for 2016. The arrival of Harry Shipp in that surprise Chicago trade is also a huge boost to their midfield, particularly after the losses of Justin Mapp and Dilly Duka (and Nigel Reo-Coker, though he wasn’t exactly beloved of late). There are some questions though, most notably whether Drogba can sustain a high level of effort and focus throughout an entire season. He’s never been a slacker, but it can be difficult to retain focus in what is likely his last year before retirement. There’s also the concern that Montreal has brought in nobody of note beyond Harry Shipp, only loanee Lucas Ontivero and draft pick Kyle Fisher, neither of whom is expected to make a massive impact this year (pardon the pun). Much like DC, the roster has playoff talent, but won’t surpass the Red Bulls or Columbus, so a 3rd-6th finish is likely, and that’s where I’ll have them, in 4th just behind DC.

New England Revolution:

2015 Result: 14-12-8 (5th in East, 11th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Gershon Koffie (Vancouver), Xavier Kouassi (FC Sion, in Summer)

Key Transfers Out: Jermaine Jones (Out of Contract), Kevin Alston (Option), Jeremy Hall (Option)

Key Players: Lee Nguyen, Andrew Farrell, Juan Agudelo

Predicted Finish: 7th in East

Breakdown:

New England had what can be called a bi-polar season and certainly a bit disappointing after an MLS Cup finals run in 2014. There was one stretch of 12 matches mid-season that saw them go 1-7-4, including five straight losses, immediately followed by an 8 match unbeaten streak where they won six in a row. Making the playoffs is a success, going out in the first round was not the objective. The big question surrounding this team heading into 2016 is the loss of Jermaine Jones. While the controversial USMNT midfielder was rapidly becoming a toxic influence during his contract dispute and suspension following his actions in the playoffs, there is no denying his talent is very significant and he’ll be missed on the field. New England has tried to fill the hole left by Jones’ departure by signing Gershon Koffie from Vancouver and signing Xavier Kouassi to a pre-contract agreement for this summer, but have been incredibly unfortunate as Kouassi has been lost to a torn ACL and MCL for FC Sion that seriously puts his status in doubt until the 2017 season. New England scratched its way into the playoffs last year and flamed out early, unfortunately it seems like their losses are too much to overcome with their additions, and I see them missing the playoffs and finishing in 7th place in the East.

New York City FC:

2015 Result: 10-17-7 (8th in East, 17th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Frederic Brillant (Oostende), Ronald Matarrita (Alajuelense), Ethan White (Philadelphia), Jack Harrison (Chicago)

Key Transfers Out: Shay Facey (Loan Expired), Angelino (Loan Expired), Chris Wingert (Waived), Ned Grabavoy (Option)

Key Players: David Villa, Andrea Pirlo, Frank Lampard

Predicted Finish: 5th in East

Breakdown:

New York City FC had what can only be called an unsuccessful first season, the front office certainly thought 10-17-7 and 8th in the East wasn’t good enough, as evidenced by the firing of Jason Kreis and the hiring of Patrick Vieira to replace him. Vieira and the front office went on to overhaul the roster, cutting much of the deadweight that made up the core of last year’s team. The only losses that truly sting are the loan expirations of Angelino and Shay Facey, the remaining departures are either welcome (Watson-Siriboe, Grabavoy) or ones that the team can live with (Wingert). The incoming players are very promising, Frederic Brillant leads a talented group that includes Ronald Matarrita, Ethan White, and top SuperDraft pick Jack Harrison. Overall, the strength of the roster looks much improved, particularly the back line. Additionally, a full off-season and year with the team should do Frank Lampard and Andrea Pirlo good. If both can round back into form as Lampard began to do towards the end of last season, the midfield should be formidable. Questions remain about the shift in systems, Kreis favored a 4-4-2 diamond while Vieira favors a 4-3-3, particularly the lack of wingers for NYCFC. They’ll hope some of their abundant midfielders can adjust their skill sets to fit into those roles alongside the other forwards. Overall, this team should see significant improvement, and I think the playoff hopes pan out in year two as they finish 5th in the East.

New York Red Bulls:

2015 Result: 18-10-6 (1st in East, 1st in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Gideon Baah (HJK Helsinki), 7 Homegrown Players

Key Transfers Out: Matt Miazga (Chelsea), Roy Miller (Option)

Key Players: Bradley Wright-Phillips, Dax McCarty, Gideon Baah

Predicted Finish: 1st in East

Breakdown:

New York Red Bulls had about as successful a season as they could’ve hoped, exceeding expectations to win the Supporters’ Shield before being knocked out of the Conference Finals by Columbus. Their front office and academy work is currently the best in MLS, as evidenced by the seven homegrown players incoming. The loss of Matt Miazga is very significant, as he was one of the best centerbacks in MLS and the call-ups to the USMNT and eventual transfer to Chelsea showed it. While his loss will be important, the signing of Gideon Baah does help to mitigate it somewhat. Otherwise, the most impressive part of their off-season is how they kept the core of this team intact while giving raises to the players who deserve it. There’s no reason to believe they’ll fall off in any way, the attack should be as potent as ever with Bradley Wright-Phillips being fed by Lloyd Sam, Sacha Kljestan, Gonzalo Veron, and even brother Shaun Wright-Phillips. I don’t see Columbus passing them (though they’ll give them a run for their money) and I don’t see the Red Bulls dropping off, expect them to finish 1st in the East and really consider this year MLS Cup or bust.

Orlando City SC:

2015 Result: 12-14-8 (7th in East, 14th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Joe Bendik (Toronto), Antonio Nocerino (AC Milan)

Key Transfers Out: Tally Hall (Option), Corey Ashe (Option)

Key Players: Kaka, Cyle Larin, Antonio Nocerino

Predicted Finish: 6th in East

Breakdown:

Orlando City finished 2015 as the better of the two expansion sides, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll enter 2016 as the same. A 7th place finish and a miss of the playoffs come as a disappointment to a team who believed themselves capable of that, especially given their USL groundwork prior to joining MLS. Kaka was everything that was promised and Cyle Larin was even better than expected and should only continue to grow. The arrival of Antonio Nocerino is a huge boon to them in the midfield as a partner to Kaka. The starting XI is otherwise much unchanged, with the exception of the swap of Tally Hall out via option and Joe Bendik in via Toronto. The consistency should help this team succeed and continue to grow. While the Nocerino signing is certainly more flashy than any move their expansion rivals made, it can be said that NYCFC perhaps did more to address their roster holes efficiently. Both should see improvement, and I believe both will find their ways into the playoffs for the first time.

Philadelphia Union:

2015 Result: 10-17-7 (9th in East, 18th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Chris Pontius (DC United), Walter Restrepo (NY Cosmos), Joshua Yaro (Draft), Anderson Conceicao (Loan), Ronald Alberg (ADO Den Haag)

Key Transfers Out: Cristian Maidana (Houston), Andrew Wenger (Houston), Fernando Aristeguieta (Loan Expiry), Conor Casey (Option), Ethan White (NYCFC), Steven Vitoria (Option)

Key Players: Tranquillo Barnetta, Ronald Alberg, Sebastian Le Toux

Predicted Finish: 10th in East

Breakdown:

Philadelphia definitely didn’t have the year it wanted to. Amidst goalkeeping problems (allowing the 5th most goals) and an impotent attack (scoring the 3rd fewest goals), the Union struggled through 2015 to a disappointing 9th place finish in the East. The players they’ve brought in this off-season are of a good quality, including Ronald Alberg, Walter Restrepo, and Chris Pontius, and they had several picks in the top 10 of the draft, including Joshua Yaro who will hopefully develop into key players given time. However, as much as I preach consistency, Philadelphia is a team that could’ve used it most. Detracting from their significant arrivals are the equally significant and almost comically numerous departures. They include the likes of Cristian Maidana, Andrew Wenger, and Steven Vitoria, all of which leave voids to be filled. The roster may have been improved through these off-season moves, time will tell, but the lack of consistency and stability is going to hurt. There have been hopeful changes in the front office, but it’ll take more than a year to fix this issue. With Chicago slightly on the rise, Philly plunges to the basement, and plans for a future rise.

Toronto FC:

2015 Result: 15-15-4 (6th in East, 12th in MLS)

Key Transfers In: Drew Moor (Free Agency), Steven Beitashour (Vancouver), Will Johnson (Portland), Clint Irwin (Colorado)

Key Transfers Out: Joe Bendik (Orlando), Chris Konopka (Option), Jackson (Option), Ahmed Kantari (Waived)

Key Players: Michael Bradley, Sebastian Giovinco, Jozy Altidore

Predicted Finish: 8th in East

Breakdown:

Toronto finished the puzzle last year, finally finishing in playoff position and completing the trifecta of Canadian teams in the playoffs. They were inconsistent and streaky last year, and you can’t get more average by definition than 15 wins and 15 losses, but it was enough to secure their spot before being blown out in the first round by Montreal. The end of their season exemplifies their up and down tendencies. In their last 13 matches they performed as such, in order, 2 losses, 2 wins, 3 losses, 4 wins, 2 losses. The key to 2016 will be stabilizing those results, but it’ll be a definite challenge. There is no doubt that Giovinco can replicate his 2015 form, Jozy Altidore seems much improved, and their personnel losses seem outweighed by their gains. But much like last season was marred by the Gold Cup, this year will be similarly marred by the Copa America and UEFA European Championship. That means a month of no Michael Bradley, no Jozy Altidore, and likely no Giovinco. That won’t help them find the consistency they seek, and ultimately I believe it will cost them as they slip out of the playoffs into 8th in the East.

And with that we’ve wrapped up the Eastern Conference! Stay tuned in the next week when we’ll examine the West and make our regular season and playoff predictions!