NEW DELHI: At the time when many parts of India are sizzling under severe heat wave conditions, US-based meteorological service provider AccuWeather has predicted a "significant" drought condition in the country with the Monsoon likely to be disrupted by "very active" typhoons (cyclones) over the Pacific. It also said the phenomena may negatively impact agriculture from central India to much of Pakistan.It attributed the drought situation to El Nino conditions which is a warm phase of fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in tropical Pacific and usually leads to an above-average number of typhoons and super typhoons.Cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are the same weather phenomenon. The only difference is the location where the storm occurs. The term 'hurricane' is used in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, 'typhoon' is used in Northwest Pacific and 'cyclones' for South Pacific and Indian Ocean. AccuWeather 's forecast on El Nino is not different from what India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said early this month. But the national weather forecaster adopted a cautious approach so that it may not lead to a panic situation.IMD had last month merely predicted that India would receive 'below normal' Monsoon rainfall. In the first forecast on April 22, it had said, "The Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (below normal scenario) with a model error of plus or minus 5%."Though El Nino is usually associated with occurrence of a number of typhoons (cyclones) and super typhoons, IMD has kept the 'details' for its second forecast expected to be released in early June."El Nino is usually associated with typhoons, but what's the point on pressing the panic button at this juncture. We have shared the details with different ministries including agriculture, water and power and the government has been working on contingency measures," said a senior IMD scientist.Citing last year's 12% deficit rainfall, he said, "If the situation was managed last year with prior action, it may also be managed this year. We have already predicted 'below normal' rainfall and the government is prepared for this."AccuWeather, however, preferred not to keep any details out of public domain. It in its 'Asia Summer Forecast', it said, "A very active typhoon season, combined with drought in much of India, could have a significant impact on lives and property for more than a billion people in Asia during the summer of 2015."Its senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls said, "A phenomenon known as El Nino is forecast to strengthen over the summer.""While there will be some rainfall on the region, the pattern could evolve into significant drought and negatively impact agriculture from central India to much of Pakistan," Nicholls said.Water temperatures in western part of the Indian Ocean indicate the duration and severity of drought conditions. "If water temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean warm more quickly than anticipated, rainfall will be enhanced across India, thus alleviating drought fears," Nicholls said.As the Pacific Basin churns out typhoons this summer and autumn, conditions over the Indian Ocean Basin will likely disrupt the monsoon, a scenario which may affect summer (Kharif) crops and worsen the overall situation, marred by recent unseasonal rains and hailstorms.IMD had last year too predicted 'below normal' Monsoon rainfall for the country which eventually turned out be worse by recording 'deficient' (below 90% of LPA). If similar situation continues, the farmers will have three consecutive bad-weather phases in the past one year — deficient Monsoon in 2014, unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March-April this year and 'below normal' rainfall during June-September (as forecast).