The NHS could face increased pressure from an influenza outbreak this winter after a heavy flu season in Australia and New Zealand.

Australia is currently in the grip of its worst flu outbreak on record, and the global circulation of the virus means that episodes in the Antipodes and Asia are indicators of the likelihood of outbreaks in Europe later in the year.

By mid-August there had been 70,000 cases of flu reported, with a high number of cases among children being blamed for driving up numbers. Just 10% of Australian children receive a flu vaccine.

NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens said that while the service is well prepared for winter, with plans for between 2,000 and 3,000 more beds to be made available than last year, it faces much "real pressure" from the traditional peak of winter demand.

He warned that GP services and hospitals will come under the most pressure if the H3 virus prevalent in the Antipodes replicates in the UK.


"The signs from the southern hemisphere winter have been that flu has been much higher and it has been the variety that puts the most pressure on the old people's services like care homes," Mr Stevens said.

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Image: Up to 3,000 more hospital beds are being made available across the UK

"The World Health Organisation is reviewing the vaccines, and if that reproduces itself here over this coming winter that is going to mean much more pressure on GP services and hospitals."

The flu vaccine that will be made available to British patients has been developed by the World Health Organisation and will be passed to Public Health England.

There have been suggestions in Australia that the vaccine has been ineffective, but Mr Stevens said the WHO was reviewing it and would not speculate on its effectiveness.

"It is the H3 strain [of the virus] but you get various subtypes and you also get virological drift where the flu evolves during the season," he said.

Mr Stevens used his speech to the NHS Expo Conference in Manchester to stress that preparing for winter is a priority.

"For the next three to five months the priority is to make sure the NHS goes into winter in as strong a position as possible, he said.

"We know we have more beds open and we are better prepared but we know the pressures are going to be real.

"The sense from Australia and New Zealand is that it is going to be a heavy flu season and hospitals there have struggled to cope."

Pauline Philip, the National A&E Director, carried out a review of NHS preparation for winter with a view to ensuring there are 2,000 to 3,000 more beds available in hospitals across the country.

"In some parts of the country, clearly there are real pressures, so we are using the next six to eight weeks to really be clear what the plan there needs to be," Mr Stevens said.

"Our goal was that A&E performance should be back to 90 per cent (of patients being seen within four hours) by September and we are on track for that goal.

Last winter, the UK suffered moderate levels of flu, mostly of the type A(H3N2) and predominantly seen in older adults.