Spoiler: Top 16 Unweighted Chart

Spoiler: Top 8 Charts





Spoiler: Upper Category & Long Term Charts









1: Scores do not account for brackets.

2: Regional biases.





3: Matchups are seldom considered.

4: Certain characters have extremely small playerbases, depressing a score in comparison to the results that character obtains.

5: Certain characters have extremely large playerbases, inflating a score in comparison to the results that character obtains.

BOTTOM LINE

I noticed (or, at least, thought. I still believe it has an impact, but not a major one.) that your methodology tends to favor popular characters. So, I decided to see how assigning characters' points with an exponential function, rather than a linear one, would affect results. I figured it would favor characters who actually win more, while still providing some points for popular ones who tend to cap out at 9th or so.



I settled on 2^(category+(9-placement-4)). In the case of secondaries, I added 1 to the character's placement. Using your definition of categories and your documentation of results this function provides the following list:



Obviously, this method has issues, such as Mewtwo ending up in 8th mostly because of Abadango's win at Pound, and Donkey Kong ending up in 13th almost entirely because of Larry Lurr secondarying him. But I feel like it's pretty interesting to see how a change in methodology can affect some results pretty drastically, and some not at all.



----



Just thought I should let you know, I'm changing my methodology slightly.



Instead of using 1/2/3/4/5/7/9/13 to determine scores, I'm using 1-8, with 6/7/8 corresponding to placements of 7th/9th/13th. I still want to reward characters for winning tournaments, over just making top 16, but scores from 7th down are a bit low for my liking.



Placing 13th at a tournament like CEO shouldn't only give a character .0625 points imo.



Thankfully, this doesn't change character order significantly, and it makes scores much prettier. Click to expand...

Spoiler: Top 16 Weighted Diddy Kong: 514.5

Sheik: 454

Cloud: 409.5

Sonic: 357

Mario: 308

Fox: 303.5

Rosalina & Luma: 269.5

Zero Suit Samus: 233.5

Bayonetta: 207

Ryu: 158.5

Mewtwo: 142.5

Toon Link: 142

Meta Knight: 138

Marth: 137.5

Captain Falcon: 128

Greninja: 119.5

R.O.B: 110

Ness: 109.5

Peach: 109

Villager: 103

Mega Man: 100.5

Corrin: 90.5

Olimar: 89

Lucario: 88.5

Pikachu: 87

Donkey Kong: 80.5

Yoshi: 78.5

Luigi: 73

Bowser: 64

Robin: 63.5

Lucas: 57

Pit: 50

Ike: 45.5

Little Mac: 45

Pac-Man: 40

Link: 38

Wario: 35.5

Duck Hunt: 29.5

Mr. Game & Watch: 28

Palutena: 22

King Dedede: 20

Samus: 18.5

Shulk: 18

Wii Fit Trainer: 18

Charizard: 16

Bowser Jr.: 16

Roy: 16

Kirby: 13

Lucina: 9.5

Zelda: 8

Jigglypuff: 8

Dr. Mario: 7

Falco: 6.5

Ganondorf: 6

Dark Pit: 4

Mii Brawler: 4

Mii Gunner: 4

Spoiler: Top 16 Unweighted Diddy Kong: 547

Cloud: 531

Sheik: 514

Sonic: 364

Fox: 358

Mario: 343

Rosalina & Luma: 293

Zero Suit Samus: 255

Bayonetta: 218

Meta Knight: 178

Ryu: 167

Toon Link: 155

Mewtwo: 152

Marth: 147

Captain Falcon: 139

Ness: 128

Greninja: 125

Olimar: 118

R.O.B: 116

Mega Man: 108

Corrin: 107

Villager: 105

Lucario: 103

Donkey Kong: 98

Peach: 96

Luigi: 89

Pikachu: 88

Bowser: 84

Yoshi: 79

Robin: 66

Lucas: 57

Ike: 55

Pit: 52

Little Mac: 52

Pac-Man: 51

Wario: 41

Duck Hunt: 38

Link: 38

Roy: 31

Mr. Game & Watch: 28

Palutena: 25

King Dedede: 24

Samus: 23

Charizard: 21

Wii Fit Trainer: 20

Lucina: 19

Shulk: 18

Bowser Jr.: 18

Kirby: 13

Falco: 10

Zelda: 8

Jigglypuff: 8

Ganondorf: 7

Dr. Mario: 7

Mii Brawler: 6

Mii Gunner: 4

Dark Pit: 4

Spoiler: Top 8 Weighted Sheik: 281

Diddy Kong: 262.5

Cloud: 223

Sonic: 186

Mario: 177

Rosalina & Luma: 164.5

Fox: 145

Zero Suit Samus: 139.5

Bayonetta: 87.5

Mewtwo: 82

Meta Knight: 74

Ryu: 73.5

Toon Link: 69

Mega Man: 58.5

Olimar: 58

Marth: 56.5

Greninja: 54.5

Captain Falcon: 54

Peach: 53

R.O.B.: 47

Pikachu: 42

Corrin: 41

Villager: 37

Donkey Kong: 36

Ness: 33.5

Robin: 31.5

Lucario: 30

Bowser: 28.5

Pac-Man: 21

Pit: 21

Lucas: 20

Luigi: 19.5

Link: 18

Wario: 17.5

Yoshi: 17

Duck Hunt: 13.5

Ike: 11.5

Little Mac: 11

Charizard: 9.5

Wii Fit Trainer: 9

Mr. Game & Watch: 9

King Dedede: 8.5

Palutena: 7

Lucina: 6.5

Shulk: 6

Roy: 5

Dr. Mario: 5

Jigglypuff: 4

Samus: 3.5

Zelda: 2

Mii Gunner: 2

Dark Pit: 2

Falco: 1.5

Mii Brawler: 1

Bowser Jr.: 1

Ganondorf: 1

Spoiler: Top 8 Unweighted Sheik: 313

Cloud: 293

Diddy Kong: 282

Mario: 198

Sonic: 190

Rosalina & Luma: 188

Fox: 169

Zero Suit Samus: 156

Meta Knight: 98

Bayonetta: 93

Olimar: 84

Mewtwo: 82

Toon Link: 79

Ryu: 79

Mega Man: 63

Captain Falcon: 61

Marth: 61

Greninja: 57

Peach: 53

Corrin: 52

R.O.B.: 50

Donkey Kong: 49

Pikachu: 44

Ness: 40

Lucario: 39

Bowser: 38

Villager: 34

Robin: 32

Pac-Man: 31

Luigi: 28

Pit: 22

Wario: 21

Lucas: 20

Duck Hunt: 19

Yoshi: 17

Little Mac: 15

Link: 14

Ike: 14

Lucina: 13

Charizard: 12

King Dedede: 11

Roy: 10

Wii Fit Trainer: 10

Mr. Game & Watch: 9

Palutena: 7

Samus: 7

Shulk: 6

Dr. Mario: 5

Jigglypuff: 4

Falco: 3

Zelda: 2

Dark Pit: 2

Mii Brawler: 2

Mii Gunner: 2

Bowser Jr.: 1

Ganondorf: 1

Spoiler: Top 16 March 15th-Onwards Weighted Diddy Kong: 795

Sheik: 709.5

Cloud: 576

Sonic: 483.5

Bayonetta: 482.5

Fox: 463.5

Mario: 439

Zero Suit Samus: 376.5

Rosalina & Luma: 370

Mewtwo: 233

Ryu: 226

Captain Falcon: 214

Meta Knight: 213

Ness: 211.5

Toon Link: 204.5

R.O.B: 203.5

Marth: 181.5

Peach: 179

Mega Man: 169.5

Greninja: 154.5

Corrin: 153

Luigi: 151.5

Yoshi: 146

Donkey Kong: 139

Pikachu: 138.5

Villager: 131.5

Olimar: 126

Lucario: 118.5

Bowser: 99

Robin: 92.5

Ike: 92.5

Lucas: 80

Wario: 69

Pit: 68

Link: 63

Little Mac: 63

Palutena: 57

Pac-Man: 55.5

Samus: 47

Duck Hunt: 47

Mr. Game & Watch: 47

Wii Fit Trainer: 34

King Dedede: 31.5

Kirby: 29.5

Roy: 26.5

Shulk: 25

Bowser Jr.: 24

Falco: 15.5

Charizard: 14.5

Zelda: 14

Lucina: 13

Jigglypuff: 13

Mii Brawler: 13

Ganondorf: 11.5

Dr. Mario: 10

Mii Gunner: 4

Dark Pit: 4

Mii Swordfighter: 0

Spoiler: Top 16 Upper Category Weighted Sheik: 276.5

Diddy Kong: 271.5

Cloud: 200.5

Mario: 183.5

Zero Suit Samus: 176.5

Fox: 166

Sonic: 165

Rosalina & Luma: 160

Bayonetta: 125

Mewtwo: 91

Mega Man: 89

Toon Link: 88

Meta Knight: 77.5

Marth: 72

Donkey Kong: 55

Ryu: 55

Olimar: 55

Peach: 52.5

Captain Falcon: 48

Villager: 43

Ness: 40.5

Corrin: 40.5

Pikachu: 40.5

Pit: 36

Lucario: 35.5

Luigi: 33.5

Greninja: 33

R.O.B: 25.5

Lucas: 25

Bowser: 18.5

Ike: 18

Little Mac: 16

Pac-Man: 16

Link: 16

Mr. Game & Watch: 16

Duck Hunt: 15

Yoshi: 14.5

Wario: 14

Palutena: 13

Wii Fit Trainer: 13

Robin: 10

Samus: 8

Roy: 6

Kirby: 5.5

Lucina: 4

Bowser Jr.: 3

Shulk: 3

Charizard: 2

Kirby: 1

King Dedede: 1

Summer of Smash 2016 Data Analysis + August Results: A long write-up by Das Koopa/Zero_Destroyer/BarnardsLoopSUMMER OF SMASH 2016 FINAL RESULTSOver the last several months, I and others have compiled tournament data that is currently sitting in a topic on Smashboards. My system is noteworthy because I have a high amount of discretion: On entrant #s, skill pools, regions, and so on - and I account for a few of these things in the scoring system I made to go along with the raw results that have been cataloged by the community.The purpose is simple: Create numerous models, see where things align, and examine the discrepancies and study them to get any idea as to why they certain things are unusual. I've maintained 6 different systems using similar scoring systems and criteria with various tidbits that separate them. Top 16, Top 8, unweighted methods for both, a system using only high-level tournament results, and a long-term list.Here's the Top 16 variant and the % changes, as per usual:-Mario up 1%-Mewtwo up 0.5%-Diddy Kong up 0.5%-Sonic up 0.2%-Zero Suit Samus up 0.2%-Meta Knight up 0.2%-Greninja up 0.2%----Villager down 0.1%-Peach down 0.1%-Marth down 0.1%-Toon Link down 0.1%-Fox down 0.2%-Bayonetta down 0.2%-Sheik down 0.3%-Rosalina & Luma down 0.3%-Cloud down 0.3%-Ryu down 0.4%-Other down 0.4%OFF: LucarioNEW: Mega ManSAME: Captain Falcon (2.2% share of results), R.O.B (1.9% share of results), Ness (1.9% of results)There's little in the way of changes over the last month, little worth commenting on. Here are the chart for other formats:As this has gone along, the story has generally remained the same, and the so-called "top characters" seem consistent in all formats, with the following 9 common to all methodologies as the Top 9, except the August Unweighted, where Bayonetta places 10th behind Meta Knight:The numbers after this begin to vary greatly with certain characters dropping off or making significant gains. I go into many of these quirks later in the post, but a significant statistic is that Mega Man reaches substantially higher in the ranking when the system is made only to use C2+ tournies, going from 21st to 11th from the Top 16 Weighted to Top 16 Weighted Upper Category. This is indicative of a problem or a quirk in the model, and many exist, so I shall address them:The primary flaws with using this data list as a tier list are very clear.A prime example of this would be EVO 2016, comparing ZeRo's top 32 bracket to Ally's.Ally: Dyr (2-0), Dabuz (2-0), Abadango (2-1), Kamemushi (3-0), Kamemushi (3-1)ZeRo: Hyuga (2-0), Komorikiri (2-0), KEN (2-0), Earth (2-0), Larry Lurr (2-0), Abadango (2-0), VoiD (2-0), Kamemushi (0-3)Ally played 14 games, won 12, lost 2ZeRo played 17 games, won 14, lost 3ZeRo's pool of players was additionally harder than Ally's and ZeRo did better vs. Abadango than Ally. By most accounts, ZeRo had a near objectively better run than Ally did, but Mario gets the greater score than Diddy even though the latter went farther as a character. This is the problem with using strict placements.*Side note; both Ally and ZeRo had uncharacteristic near-misses. NAKAT and Salem came dangerously close to beating them in their respective top 32 qualifiers.Seeding can determine elements like these, and we don't see any shortage of bizarre instances where bad seeding has led to things like Ally vs. ZeRo for 13th, Larry vs. ZeRo for 9th, and so on. Japan is particularly bad when it comes to this, arguably having some of the absolute worst seeding I've ever seen in brackets. This may partially be responsible for some of the various absurd placements we see, with the skill pool only further adding problems.This stresses that seeding needs significant improvements.A large number of regional tournies creates bias in favor of them, albeit stringent entrant # qualifications often deter this to never include outright bad regions. Foreign countries can be argued, namely South America and the Caribbean, as it's hard to compare skill pools when players from these countries rarely cross paths with established greater regions, such as U.S.A, Japan, or various European countries like The Netherlands or France.In this case, C1 tournaments have the highest point share. Part of the purpose of this and the inclusion of 9th-13th is to examine the mid-low tier spectrum, as this does a very good job of tracking lower-tiered results, and good regions should naturally conform to meta expectations where the characters with the best tools naturally do the best.As a result of this, the factors that cause major discrepancies between the Upper Category system and standard Top 16 Weighted is likely because the latter is more regionally-inclined as a system. This results in certain characters getting higher scores than top placements indicates. Ryu may be the best example of this.While the statistics are extremely important, it's worth noting that (like a lack of bracket context) the actual ordering is likely to be flawed due to a lack of matchup data. This problem gets increasingly worse the less developed a character's meta is, as is often the case with lower-tiers. While this list is indicative of certain things like what general category a character belongs in, placements aren't gospel.Examples:Underscored: PitOverscored: CloudPit's placements in the Summer of Smash area are as follows:13th, Kuro, Umebura 23 (Category 2)1st, Earth, Sumabato 10 (Revised to Category 2 albeit not scored as such)5th, Earth, Sumabato 11 (Category 2)9th, Earth, EVO 2016 (Category 4)7th, Kuro, Umebura SAT (Category 3)4th, Earth, Sumabato 12 (Category 2)9th, Kiraflax, Smash at Church (Category 1)9th, Chompy, Smash at Church (Category 1)Pit has a demonstrably strong track record in Japan and in America when Earth attends, and there are other tournies I didn't quite reference - a pre-EVO tourney where Earth went 2-1 vs. Komorikiri across 15(?) games is a prime example. He has occasional stumbles, but it's very difficult to deny his track record, including a near-miss vs. Kamemushi and numerous wins over good Japanese and American players (e.g. Pugwest and Tweek).Despite this, his score is rather dreadfully low, ranking 31st, below characters like Yoshi, Bowser, Luigi, etc, many of whom don't have the same consistent track record. Lucas and Robin are more arguable, as both rank above Pit and have almost-consistency in their accomplishments, but need more time, tournies, and attendance from players like Dath, Skorpio, Taiheita, etc.Meanwhile, Cloud is a more complicated case.Cloud consistently garners top 3 on all lists despite having no significant tournament wins from mains, and despite the very mixed bag of pocketing Cloud. Tweek and Mew2King were both rather brutally denied landmark wins by Salem and ZeRo respectively, though Tweek kept it viable and didn't fall apart at Collision. This extends past Summer, but it's no doubt relevant.The most significant result with Cloud comes from ANTi, where a secondary slot allowed him to defeat Zinoto at CEO. However, ANTi used Mario for the majority of the tourney, and the biggest question towards Cloud's continued failure to garner wins as opposed to characters that score lower than him (See: Fox, Sonic, Mario, Zero Suit Samus, Rosalina & Luma, Bayonetta, etc.) is often attributed to potential consistency issues that maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay relate to his recovery or a very bad matchup in Sheik that's quite prevalent.However, Cloud, like Bayonetta in 1.1.5 before him, has a high density of results to make up for a lack of wins. After all - a second place spot is only one point less than a win since it's merely a set's difference, and Cloud has little trouble making the top 6-4 range. Despite this, his results at supermajor and major level events are abysmal compared to most other characters.Semi-majors, majors, and Supermajors during the SoS 2016 period:-Get on My Level 2016-2GGT KTAR Saga-Umebura S.A.T-Shine 2016-CEO 2016-EVO 2016-Super Smash Con 2016Out of these, the Clouds that garnered results...GOML: Mew2King (5th), MKLeo (5th, secondary) ANTi (7th, secondary), PikaPika, (13th, secondary)2GGT KTAR Saga: N/AUmebura S.A.T: Komorikiri (13th, secondary)Shine 2016: Mew2King (5th)CEO 2016: ANTi (1st, secondary)EVO 2016: N/ASuper Smash Con 2016: Tweek (13th), ANTi (13th, secondary)...The main conclusion here is that Mew2King is the most successful Cloud user at the moment, also garnering a pile of good results at regionals, including Clutch City Clash (4th), Endgame (2nd), Momocon (5th), Smash n' Splash 2 (5th), Apex 2016 (4th), and WTFox 2 (5th). Tweek's are more mixed and stagnant, with his 2nd at Collision being his best performance in months.Cloud effectively has a greater falloff the more and more discriminatory you become against lower levels of play. He maintains an impressive set of results at category 2 tournaments, thus maintaining a strong repertoire even in the upper category chart, despite having a falloff in the C3/C4 area in comparison to other characters that rank below him in less discriminatory data set.Less complex examples of this occur. I refer back to the Ally/ZeRo conundrum at EVO where ZeRo arguably looked much better, yet his character received a lower score due to a lack of bracket context. It'd take too long to go over all of these examples, but the differing scoring systems reveal overestimates in the Top 16 system for characters like Ness and Ryu, who fall significantly in top 8 and upper category systems, while unweighted variants heavily benefit Olimar in large part due to Dabuz's success with him over the summer. These are all worth extensive posts, but you get the idea.This data I've conjured up since March is undoubtedly useful in helping determine where certain characters rank. However, it is not an end-all-be-all, and it's simply a system in which I score characters the better they do and find ways to scale scores with better players in attendance. There are numerous variables that I can't account for with the models I run, so the best I can do is shed light on the issues so people understand the flaws.If you'd like to see another model, I've kept in contact over the months with @CervidKing , who has this spreadsheet he's maintained:From the PMs (edited and compiled together to get an idea of his methodology)For mine, full results in full for every every format:Methodology:Results Thread:Previous Month:Thanks for reading & stuff. I will be updating the results thread soon™ and moving the 1.1.6 results off the main post to make way for Phase 3 while I transfer the final scores. This will take some time, as I'll also need to create a mass of new spoiler folders for Phase 3. I won't be listing scores for Phase 3 for another week or two, as the scores will be very erratic and inaccurate with the low amount of data to begin with. I took my time with updating the results thread due to this rather long writeup.