Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. If not now, when?

If I hadn't started last year's San Diego State preview with "Every year if feels like I say something similar about San Diego State," I'd be tempted to do the same this year. In fact, a lot of last year's introduction still applies.

TL;DR Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports



2014 F/+ ranking and record: 76 (7-6)



5-year recruiting ranking: 74



Biggest strength: D.J. Pumphrey might rush for 2,000 yards



Biggest question mark: Pumphrey's supporting cast has plenty to prove



Biggest 2015 game: Nevada (Nov. 28)



In one sentence: Rocky Long has steered a steady ship, and 2015 represents his best chance yet for a 10-win breakthrough.

The Aztecs are actually reaching an interesting crossroads. After winning 34 games in the nine seasons between 2000-08, the Aztecs have won 34 in four years. They attended four bowls from 1969-2009, and they've now attended four in a row. But eight wins gets boring. As an SDSU fan, you have to know how much better off your program is than at any point since the 1970s, but you find yourself getting frustrated. This program is in good shape, and recruiting has had a clear impact. The only question is whether SDSU can at some point break into double digits in the win column.

San Diego State was both slightly better and much less lucky in 2014. As a result, the Aztecs won seven games, breaking a four-year streak of eight or more. A year after going 6-2 in games decided by one possession, they went 0-2 in such games. The defense took a nice step forward, but a limited offense sank a little bit further.

If Rocky Long wasn't fully enmeshed in Glen Mason Territory before 2014, he definitely was when it ended, especially since the season wrapped up with a how-did-they-lose-that defeat to Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl.

I expected eight or nine wins, so the Aztecs were a bit disappointing. But they were also crazy young. Their best running back, two of their three best receivers, their best defensive tackle and linebacker, and most of their defensive backs were sophomores. They survived with a limited quarterback, handled their business against weaker teams, and played well at home.

Most importantly, they didn't get knocked off of their overall trajectory, which, thanks to recruiting, is distinctly upward.

Until San Jose State crashed the party with an out-of-nowhere awesome class, SDSU had carved out a clear niche as the No. 2 recruiting team in the Mountain West. According to the 247Sports Composite, Long had signed the second-best class in the conference each year from 2012-14, and combined with exciting transfers, Long has built a base of talent. And if last year's growing pains turn into this year's maturation, SDSU could be on the way to impressive.

In this week's New Mexico preview, I talked about Bob Davie, a coach who had built infrastructure without a breakthrough. Long is in the same boat, though San Diego State's floor and ceiling have both been higher. The Aztecs are winning more games than ever but haven't actually improved for a while. Is this the year infrastructure turns into wins?

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 76 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Adj. Scoring

Margin Win

Expectancy 30-Aug Northern Arizona N/A 38-7 W 59% 5.1 100% 6-Sep at North Carolina 70 27-31 L 17% -21.9 28% 20-Sep at Oregon State 74 7-28 L 5% -39.3 1% 27-Sep UNLV 118 34-17 W 55% 3.0 97% 3-Oct at Fresno State 102 13-24 L 15% -24.4 24% 10-Oct at New Mexico 94 24-14 W 62% 7.4 97% 18-Oct Hawaii 111 20-10 W 44% -3.4 91% 1-Nov at Nevada 64 14-30 L 27% -14.5 34% 8-Nov Idaho 112 35-21 W 57% 3.8 98% 15-Nov at Boise State 21 29-38 L 43% -4.2 32% 21-Nov Air Force 48 30-14 W 70% 12.5 91% 29-Nov San Jose State 116 38-7 W 87% 26.2 100% 23-Dec Navy 44 16-17 L 47% -1.6 61%

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 25.4 89 28.3 66 Points Per Game 25.0 91 19.8 13

2. A season at three glances

Some teams start slowly in September, then improve. Some play a lot better at home than on the road. Some play superior ball against inferior opponents but struggle against teams that can match their own athleticism.

San Diego State was all of those teams.

"Start slowly in September, then improve."

Average Percentile Performance (first 5 games) : 30% (record: 2-3)

: 30% (record: 2-3) Average Percentile Performance (last 8 games): 55% (record: 5-3)

"Play a lot better at home than on the road."

Average Percentile Performance (on the road) : 28% (record: 1-5)

: 28% (record: 1-5) Average Percentile Performance (at home): 62% (record: 6-1)

"Superior ball against inferior opponents."

Average Percentile Performance (vs. top-75 teams) : 35% (record: 1-5)

: 35% (record: 1-5) Average Percentile Performance (vs. everybody else): 54% (record: 6-1)

All these descriptions are frequently used to describe young teams. SDSU did have a senior quarterback and an experienced offensive line, but so many of the important young members of this team developed as the year progressed.

Running back D.J. Pumphrey went from good (first five games: 112.2 yards per game, 5.7 per carry) to great (last eight: 164.0 per game, 7.4 per carry). After defensing (intercepting or breaking up) zero passes in the first three games of the year, cornerback Damontae Kazee defensed 14 in the next 10. After recording one tackle for loss in the first seven games, USC transfer Christian Heyward had five in the next six.

That's an exciting sign moving forward.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.86 58 IsoPPP+ 91.3 88 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 44.0% 44 Succ. Rt. + 101.9 63 FIELD POSITION Def. Avg. FP 28.1 32 Def. FP+ 102.0 44 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 3.9 99 Redzone S&P+ 90.6 94 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 18.8 ACTUAL 22 +3.2

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 73 87 72 88 RUSHING 28 57 53 59 PASSING 108 108 91 108 Standard Downs 86 67 92 Passing Downs 86 96 78

Q1 Rk 75 1st Down Rk 86 Q2 Rk 95 2nd Down Rk 115 Q3 Rk 53 3rd Down Rk 82 Q4 Rk 123

3. A Jeff Horton offense

SDSU's offense definitely improved, but it was still the weakest of the Aztecs' three units. The passing game was limited; SDSU managed a passer rating of just 109.1 (113th in FBS), went over 130 twice all season, and ranked 108th in Passing S&P+. Quinn Kaehler made a lot of mistakes (12 interceptions, 20 sacks), but freshman Nick Bawden was half as effective.

Perhaps it isn't a surprise that Long overhauled his offensive staff. Offensive coordinator Bob Toledo retired, and two other assistants left. Through change, Long still offered a bit of stability by promoting running backs coach Jeff Horton to the coordinator seat.

Horton's influences are clear. From 1999 to 2005, the former Nevada and UNLV head coach worked under Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin. After four years, as an NFL assistant, he came back to the college ranks in 2010, serving as Minnesota's offensive coordinator for the final year of Tim Brewster's tenure before coming to San Diego.

He preaches a Wisconsin style: physicality, pro-style sets, and the ability to run, run, run. In other words, he preaches everything that San Diego State has been good at.

D.J. Pumphrey erupted in 2014, with 1,873 yards and 20 touchdowns, but he's only the latest of many successful SDSU running backs. Since Horton's arrival in 2011, the leading SDSU rusher has gone for at least 1,244 yards at 15 touchdowns each season, and in three of the four years, the leader has hit at least 1,458 yards. SDSU has won games with old-school feature backs and the play-action pass. That isn't going to change.

Of course, whether SDSU actually improves from one-dimensional to two will depend on that second dimension.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Quinn Kaehler

169 307 2157 9 12 55.0% 20 6.1% 6.2 Nick Bawden 6'3, 225 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8333 13 38 147 1 2 34.2% 3 7.3% 3.1 Christian Chapman 6'0, 180 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8167 Maxwell Smith

(Kentucky 2013) 6'5, 235 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) NR 105 183 1276 9 1 57.4% 18 9.0% 5.9 Jake Rodrigues

(Oregon) 6'3, 207 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9149

















Ryan Agnew 6'0, 175 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8184



Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost D.J. Pumphrey RB 5'9, 170 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8044 277 1873 20 6.8 6.9 43.0% 4 4 Chase Price RB 5'8, 200 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7000 141 674 5 4.8 4.1 36.9% 2 1 Dakota Gordon FB 5'10, 235 Sr. NR NR 26 110 0 4.2 3.8 23.1% 0 0 Nick Bawden QB 6'3, 225 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8333 8 63 0 7.9 4.5 62.5% 1 1 Marcus Stamps RB 6'1, 210 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8448 8 60 0 7.5 10.3 37.5% 0 0 Lucky Radley RB

7 32 1 4.6 2.3 57.1% 0 0 Lloyd Mills WR 5'10, 165 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8091 5 103 0 20.6 27.6 60.0% 1 0 Quinn Kaehler QB

5 25 0 5.0 3.1 40.0% 2 0 Rashaad Penny RB 5'11, 200 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8432 William Walker RB 5'10, 190 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8456 Juwan Washington RB 5'7, 175 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8286 Jatory Sparks-Brown RB 5'11, 215 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8227

















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate %SD Yds/

Target NEY Real Yds/

Target RYPR Lloyd Mills WR-X 5'10, 165 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8091 53 22 307 41.5% 16.4% 39.6% 5.8 13 5.6 35.2 Ezell Ruffin WR-Z

44 26 422 59.1% 13.6% 68.2% 9.6 102 10.4 48.3 Eric Judge WR-X 6'1, 190 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8148 42 24 474 57.1% 13.0% 66.7% 11.3 177 11.9 54.3 D.J. Pumphrey RB 5'9, 170 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8044 35 23 160 65.7% 10.8% 48.6% 4.6 -117 4.9 18.3 Larry Clark WR-Z

28 17 242 60.7% 8.7% 50.0% 8.6 34 8.7 27.7 Chase Price RB 5'8, 200 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7000 24 17 126 70.8% 7.4% 58.3% 5.3 -76 5.3 14.4 Jemond Hazely WR-X 6'1, 190 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7899 22 13 173 59.1% 6.8% 50.0% 7.9 13 7.7 19.8 Adam Roberts FB

21 14 133 66.7% 6.5% 57.1% 6.3 -35 6.3 15.2 Dakota Gordon FB 5'10, 235 Sr. NR NR 13 7 58 53.8% 4.0% 61.5% 4.5 -30 4.4 6.6 Mikah Holder WR 6'0, 175 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8538 11 5 53 45.5% 3.4% 45.5% 4.8 -12 4.9 6.1 Chase Favreau WR 6'1, 200 So. NR 0.7000 9 2 55 22.2% 2.8% 22.2% 6.1 22 12.9 6.3 Daniel Brunskill TE 6'5, 250 Jr. NR NR 9 5 31 55.6% 2.8% 100.0% 3.4 -31 N/A 3.5 Robert Craighead TE/OL 6'3, 265 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7552 5 4 42 80.0% 1.5% 60.0% 8.4 -5 8.6 4.8 Paul Pitts III WR 6'0, 190 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7906 4 2 23 50.0% 1.2% 25.0% 5.8 -2 5.4 2.6 Kameron Kelly WR 6'2, 190 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7907 Jabril Clewis WR 6'2, 200 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8130 DeSean Holmes WR 5'10, 175 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9301 John Carroll TE 6'2, 225 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8517 Jack Bailey WR 6'2, 190 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8069 Hasani Smith TE 6'5, 275 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7600 Jerry Chaney WR 6'0, 180 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7817

4. No excuse not to pass better

When you are a run-first team that wants to set up play action, you're all but guaranteed to end up with a completion rate lower than normal and per-completion yardage averages that are higher. But the balance was off for SDSU over the last couple of seasons.

Kaehler was mistake-prone, and last year's top three receivers weren't efficient enough to maximize explosiveness. The most frequent target, Lloyd Mills, caught only 42 percent of his passes, which offset the impact of his 14 yards per catch. And while Ezell Ruffin and Eric Judge were better (combined: 58 percent catch rate, 17.9 yards per catch), the lack of efficiency frequently brought SDSU to a standstill.

Pumphrey is incredible, but he can't carry 50 times per game. Horton will have to figure out how to get more from the passing game, either to draw defenders out of the box on standard downs or catch back up to the chains on passing downs. And whoever wins the starting quarterback job is going to be young, new, or both.

SDSU's quarterback race features last year's backup (Nick Bawden), a former Kentucky starter (Maxwell Smith), a former four-star Oregon signee (Jake Rodrigues), a three-star redshirt freshman (Christian Chapman), and a three-star true freshman (Ryan Agnew). There is all sorts of upside here for a position that desperately needed some last year, but in terms of proven capabilities, quarterback is still lacking. Bawden averaged just 3.1 yards per pass attempt in 2014, and as UK starter, Smith averaged just 5.9 in 2013, albeit with only one interception.

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, Smith and Chapman finished spring ahead of the pack, but they could still be caught.

Whoever starts has a pretty high ceiling. In theory, so does the receiving corps. Mills and Judge are back, and sophomores Chase Favreau and Mikah Holder, a former star recruit, had a nice spring. Plus, three-star redshirt freshman Jabril Clewis could figure into the rotation, and Long signed one hell of a set of freshman receivers. Four-star freshman DeSean Holmes was a one-time USC commit and a top-200 recruit overall, and two other wideouts and two tight ends each received either three-star or high-two-star designations.

There will be no excuse for SDSU's passing game to again rank in the triple digits. And it won't have to be good for the offense to thrive; it just has to be competent.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Career Starts Honors/Notes Terry Poole LT 25 2014 2nd All-MWC Darrell Greene RG 6'4, 315 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7593 25 Nico Siragusa LG 6'5, 325 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8428 14 Jordan Smith C

14 Pearce Slater RT 6'7, 335 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7889 13 Lenicio Noble C

11 Garrett Corbett LT

0 Paul Rodriguez LG

0 Robert Craighead OG 6'3, 265 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7552 0 Kwayde Miller LT 6'7, 310 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8394 0 Arthur Flores OL 6'5, 305 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8352 0 Austin Maass C 6'4, 285 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8581 0 Sergio Phillips OL 6'2, 285 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8280 0 Ryan Krum (UAB) OL 6'4, 335 Jr. NR 0.7000 Ryan Pope OL 6'7, 320 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7000 Pesi Savea OL 6'6, 275 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8467 William Tuihalamaka OL 6'5, 350 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8457



5. "Two guys who we know can play ... 10 other guys who we’re hoping can play"

From the same Union-Tribune piece:

The offensive line yielded four sacks and suffered numerous false-start penalties. Few were the opportunities when the quarterbacks were able to stand in the pocket for more than a couple of seconds. "Right now, I’m not sure that we have an offensive line," Long said. "I think we’ve got two guys who we know can play, and we’ve got 10 other guys who we’re hoping can play."

SDSU returns three players with a combined four years of starting experience up front, but in attempting to replace all-conference tackle Terry Poole and centers Jordan Smith and Lenicio Noble this spring, the line was an albatross. Part of this is because it was dealing with a defensive front that could be downright awesome, but there's still concern.

From a recruiting standpoint, the upside is enormous -- seven linemen were given three-star designations by the Composite, and seven were Rivals three-stars as well.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.75 19 IsoPPP+ 113.0 32 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 39.1% 39 Succ. Rt. + 102.9 54 FIELD POSITION Off. Avg. FP 32.1 26 Off. FP+ 104.0 25 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.4 68 Redzone S&P+ 104.1 46 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 21.4 ACTUAL 26.0 +4.6

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 16 42 47 32 RUSHING 50 35 44 28 PASSING 10 41 63 34 Standard Downs 25 32 19 Passing Downs 84 85 79

Q1 Rk 27 1st Down Rk 37 Q2 Rk 38 2nd Down Rk 28 Q3 Rk 46 3rd Down Rk 22 Q4 Rk 69

6. I can't wait to watch this defense

SDSU pulled off a lovely combination in 2014: strong, aggressive efficiency numbers with minimal big plays allowed. The Aztecs allowed just 138 gains of 10-plus yards (eighth in the country) and four of 50-plus (18th), but their standard downs efficiency (32nd in SD Success Rate+) was still awesome. And again, this defense was loaded with sophomores.

Long has been at SDSU, either as defensive coordinator or head coach, since 2009. His 2014 unit was his second best according to Def. S&P+; it ranked 66th overall and now returns four of its top five linemen and basically all of last year's defensive backs. There are questions at linebacker, but there are also loads of high-ceiling candidates to answer those questions.

The best SDSU defense Long has fielded ranked 52nd in 2012, and I would be a little bit surprised if the Aztecs didn't top that.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Alex Barrett DT 6'3, 260 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7500 10 30.0 4.1% 9.0 3.0 0 2 1 0 Jon Sanchez DE 6'2, 260 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7906 13 29.5 4.0% 7.5 2.5 1 1 1 0 Sam Meredith DE

13 26.0 3.6% 3.5 1.0 0 1 2 0 Christian Heyward DT 6'3, 300 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9484 11 25.5 3.5% 5.0 2.0 0 1 0 0 Dakota Turner DE 6'3, 235 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8149 12 16.0 2.2% 2.5 2.0 0 0 0 0 Dontrell Onuoha DE

13 13.5 1.9% 2.5 1.5 1 0 0 0 Sergio Phillips DT 6'2, 285 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8280 7 3.5 0.5% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 Kenny Galea'i DL

13 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Malcolm Jackson DT 6'3, 275 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8201 Micah Seau DE 6'3, 260 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7922 Noble Hall DE 6'3, 230 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8163 Randy Ricks DE 6'5, 230 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8133

















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Josh Gavert LB

13 71.5 9.8% 4.5 1.0 1 4 1 0 Calvin Munson LB 6'1, 235 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7444 13 68.5 9.4% 10.5 4.0 4 0 2 0 Cody Galea MLB

13 42.0 5.8% 6.5 3.0 0 1 2 1 Derek Largent LB

10 29.5 4.0% 3.0 2.0 0 0 0 0 Jake Fely LB 5'10, 215 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8208 3 8.5 1.2% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Fred Melifonwu MLB 6'5, 235 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8341 13 5.5 0.8% 2.5 2.0 0 0 0 0 Jay Henderson LB 6'2, 205 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8174 9 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Devante Davis LB 6'2, 210 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7800 13 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Aaron Boesch LB 6'5, 250 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8033 Daryl Dunlap LB 6'2, 220 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8286 Tyler Morris LB 6'3, 215 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8175 Ryan Dunn

(Arizona) LB 6'3, 205 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8307 Austin Wyatt-Thayer LB 6'5, 230 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7633 Kyahva Tezino LB 6'0, 225 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9024 Reggie Murphy LB 6'5, 250 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8173 Ronley Lakalaka LB 6'0, 225 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8081



















7. Turnover at linebacker

SDSU ranked 51st in Adj. Line Yards and 72nd in Adj. Sack Rate last season. The Aztecs struggled in short-yardage situations (98th in Power Success Rate), which isn't surprising considering a 3-3-5 alignment will sacrifice some size for speed and deception. But the down-to-down run defense was good, and the Aztecs were able to confuse passers enough to record one of the best standard downs sack rates in the country.

Luckily, the linebacker most responsible for these numbers, junior Calvin Munson, returns. The three other LBs who recorded more than 10 tackles last year are gone. The candidates for a star turn are legion, however: injury-prone senior Jake Fely, three-star sophomores Fred Melifonwu (if he doesn't move to defensive end), Jay Henderson, Daryl Dunlap, and Tyler Morris, converted tight end Aaron Boesch, JUCO transfer Austin Wyatt-Thayer, four-star freshman Kyahva Tezino, et cetera.

The three departed linebackers were solid, but I can't bring myself to worry about this unit, especially considering the favors the defensive line will do for them.

There could still be concern with short yardage, and we'll see if the blitz is any better, but Long should find plenty of the pieces he needs to confuse and attack with his front six. That will set the table for an awesome secondary.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR J.J. Whittaker CB 5'10, 180 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8208 13 53.0 7.3% 2 0 2 6 0 0 Na'im McGee AZTEC 6'0, 200 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8122 12 52.0 7.1% 1 0 0 1 0 0 Trey Lomax WAR 5'11, 185 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8108 12 50.5 6.9% 3 1 0 3 0 2 Damontae Kazee CB 5'11, 180 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7900 13 49.0 6.7% 4 0 1 12 0 1 Malik Smith WAR 6'0, 185 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7900 13 42.0 5.8% 3.5 0 3 5 0 0 Brandon Porter AZTEC 5'11, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7826 11 31.0 4.3% 2 0 0 2 1 0 Billy Vaughn, Jr. CB 6'1, 180 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8098 13 24.5 3.4% 0 0 1 3 0 0 Pierre Romain DB 5'8, 165 Sr. NR NR 13 7.5 1.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 T.J. Hickman DB 6'0, 190 Sr. NR NR 13 4.0 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kalan Montgomery CB 6'1, 185 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8235 13 3.5 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fred Trevillion WAR 6'2, 190 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7593 12 2.5 0.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 David Lamar CB

10 2.0 0.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kendrick Mathis WAR 6'0, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8255 Ron Smith S 6'0, 165 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8457 Dwayne Parchment DB 5'11, 190 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8226 Jeff Clay DB 6'0, 180 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7859



















8. Big plays for me, none for thee

Five SDSU defensive backs recorded at least two tackles for loss, four defensed at least four passes, and everyone returns. SDSU had a top-40 pass defense in terms of big-play prevention (34th in Passing IsoPPP+) but still managed to make plays of its own without a dominant pass rush. And of last year's top seven regulars, four were sophomores and two were freshmen.

J.J. Whittaker and Damontae Kazee have both looked like ace cornerbacks at points (Whittaker had 14 passes defensed in 2013, Kazee had 13 in 2014), and the two-deep among the three safety positions is now loaded with experience and athleticism.

If the front six manages to improve -- a possibility because of the experience on the line and the athleticism at linebacker (but not a given because of the ineperience at linebacker) -- the secondary will make this a top-40 defense.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2015

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Joel Alesi 58 36.2 1 19 21 69.0%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Seamus McMorrow 52 62.9 13 1 25.0% Donny Hageman 6'1, 170 Sr. 19 62.7 5 3 26.3%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Donny Hageman 6'1, 170 Sr. 37-37 12-15 80.0% 5-6 83.3%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Returns Avg. TD Rashaad Penny KR 5'11, 200 So. 20 25.0 0 Kameron Kelly KR 6'2, 190 So. 5 26.2 0 Lloyd Mills PR 5'10, 165 Jr. 18 11.4 1 Billy Vaughn, Jr. PR 6'1, 180 So. 2 1.0 0

Category Rk Special Teams F/+ 19 Field Goal Efficiency 24 Punt Return Efficiency 85 Kick Return Efficiency 35 Punt Efficiency 39 Kickoff Efficiency 11 Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency 8

9. An underrated weapon is gone

SDSU's special teams unit was sound, top to bottom. The returns were explosive if inconsistent, Joel Alesi's punts were high and unreturnable, and Donny Hageman's kickoffs and place-kicks were strong if a bit scattershot (he kicked three of 19 kickoffs out of bounds and made a higher percentage of his longer field goals than his shorter field goals).

SDSU ranked 19th overall in special teams efficiency but might struggle to match that without Alesi, who was perhaps underappreciated because of the length of his punts (just 36.2 yards) but consistently pinned opponents deep and only allowed 18 of 58 punts to be returned (for just a four-yard average).

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. Rk 5-Sep San Diego NR 12-Sep at California 65 19-Sep South Alabama 89 26-Sep at Penn State 45 3-Oct Fresno State 102 10-Oct at Hawaii 111 17-Oct at San Jose State 116 24-Oct Utah State 52 31-Oct at Colorado State 49 14-Nov Wyoming 113 21-Nov at UNLV 118 28-Nov Nevada 64

Five-Year F/+ Rk 0.6% (54) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 74 / 74 2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* 4 / 2.7 2014 TO Luck/Game +0.5 Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (7, 7) 2014 Second-order wins (difference) 8.6 (-1.6)

10. Utah State and Nevada at home ... no Boise State...

San Diego State boasts one of the best running backs in the country, a strong set of defensive tackles, a linebacking corps with loads of athleticism, one of the best mid-major secondaries in the country, and, at the very least, quite a few high-ceiling candidates for the starting jobs at quarterback and receiver. They will also get a little bit of new blood in the play-calling department, which might not be a bad thing.

There are still obvious questions in the passing game and on the offensive line, but the odds are good that both the offense and defense improve.

So what does that mean? First of all, it means that the Aztecs should be considered the favorite to win the MWC West. Last year's two biggest West rivals, Fresno State and Nevada, are both replacing key pieces and have to visit San Diego, where the Aztecs were pretty awesome. Utah State visits, and there's no Boise State on the slate. San Jose State could be a really interesting team thanks to its recruiting, but the Spartans will probably too young to seriously threaten.

It also means that if SDSU is ever going to break the nine-win barrier, it will be this year. The Aztecs return plenty of fun pieces in 2016, but the conference schedule will flip and feature quite a few testy road games. This is an incredible opportunity for SDSU to break through, and while I get a little bit anxious saying so many nice things about a team with a new quarterback, that's how much I like D.J. Pumphrey and the defense.