It is time for Stephen Harper to declare victory and announce that he will step down as prime minister.

The Senate scandal adds an air of urgency. But it is not the only reason why it makes sense for Harper to announce, perhaps after New Year’s, that he is ready to relinquish the country’s top job.

First, he is a political success. He managed to knit two parties at daggers drawn, Reform and the old Progressive Conservatives, into a coherent machine.

He won three elections with that machine. He made his Conservative Party competitive again in the crucial ridings around Toronto — while holding onto the West and (briefly) making major inroads into Quebec.

He has successfully refocused the country’s attention toward matters dear to the heart of small-c conservatives: crime and punishment, unregulated markets, leaner social programs, the military.

Many disagree with his agenda. My view is that the Conservative government’s dismantling of environmental regulations, its focus on reducing wages and its picking away at programs such as Old Age Security have made life in Canada worse.

But this is what his political base demanded — and he has delivered.

His government’s successful negotiation of a trade and investment deal with the European Union can serve as the crowning glory for a prime minister who, by Feb. 6, will have been in power a full eight years.

Second, and more important, Harper’s strengths are becoming liabilities.

His main political strength is that he is viewed as strong and decisive. That is what voters tell pollsters. That is why his publicists refer to Canada’s Conservative administration as the “Harper government.”

Certainly, there is nothing collegial about this government. All prime ministers employ heavies to ride herd. But the heavies in this prime minister’s office are heavier than most.

From muzzling scientists to, as the RCMP alleged this week, trying to subvert a Senate audit, Harper has micromanaged to a degree rarely seen in Canada.

This is why it is so difficult for Harper to claim that he knew nothing of what the RCMP has alleged was a complicated plot — run out of his office and by his closest aides — to keep a lid on the spending scandal involving Senator Mike Duffy.

Unlike Nigel Wright, his former chief of staff, Harper will probably never find himself legally at risk from this criminal investigation. But he is being damaged politically and as the scandal drags on, that damage will increase.

As Brian Mulroney found, once political damage reaches a critical level it is impossible for a leader, or his party, to recover.

I expect Employment Minister Jason Kenney understands this. That’s why he is taking the risk of differing with Harper on minor but telling matters — such as how to deal with Toronto Mayor Rob Ford.

In effect, Kenney is signalling to his party: Yes, there is life after Harper; and maybe it should begin now.

Third, a decision by Harper to drop out before the 2015 election would throw the Liberals and New Democrats into confusion.

Both NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau are running as anti-Harpers. Mulcair is portraying himself as the prosecutor-in-chief, whose job is to unearth the roots of Harper’s involvement in the Senate scandal. Trudeau’s pitch seems to be that he’s more likeable than Harper.

Neither opposition party has scripted an overall plan radically different from that of the governing Conservatives. On key economic matters, such as trade, pipelines and natural resource extraction, the Liberals and Conservative have near-identical views. The NDP position in many of these areas remains mysterious

With Harper gone, both Trudeau and Mulcair would have to find something else to say.

Harper is a stubborn man. He will resist if he feels that events are conspiring to push him out.

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But he also understands politics. An announcement early next year would give his party ample time to find a successor. It would also make his role in the Senate scandal, in political terms, largely moot.

Sometimes, it pays to declare victory and move on. For Stephen Harper, this is one of those times.

Thomas Walkom’s column appears Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.

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