WESTERVILLE, OHIO — The entire Republican Party machinery has converged on this suburban Columbus district for a furious eleventh-hour campaign aimed at saving a conservative House seat and averting another special election disaster.

But in the final days ahead of Tuesday's election, signs were everywhere that Democrats are surging — from recent polling to the private and public statements of many Republicans, including the GOP candidate himself. The district has been reliably red for more than three decades, but the sheer size of the Republican cavalry made clear how worried the party is about losing it.


At a Saturday evening rally, President Donald Trump tried to juice conservative excitement for mild-mannered Republican candidate Troy Balderson while foisting a Trumpian nickname upon 31-year-old Democratic hopeful Danny O’Connor: “Danny boy.” Earlier in the week, Vice President Mike Pence made the trek, while Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. recorded a robocall, and Gov. John Kasich endorsed Balderson in a TV ad.

The Republican National Committee has opened two offices in the district, launched a $500,000-plus get-out-the-vote effort, and dispatched one of its top officials, Bob Paduchik, who ran Trump’s 2016 Ohio campaign. And outside conservative groups, led by a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, have dumped more than $3.5 million onto the TV airwaves, far outpacing Democrats.

The all-out push underscores the GOP’s trepidation about the final special election before the midterms. A loss, following startling Republican defeats in Pennsylvania and Alabama, would offer more evidence that a blue wave is on the horizon. And it would further fuel fears of what’s becoming evident: that Democrats are simply more amped up, even in areas that have long been safely Republican.

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As he addressed volunteers gathered in a campaign office on Friday afternoon, Balderson, a 56-year-old state legislator, hinted at the enthusiasm deficit that was plaguing his party. A Monmouth University poll last week had him ahead of O'Connor by a single percentage point, 44 to 43.

“You all know, it’s a tight race. And everybody wants to know, why is it tight? Why is it tight?” he said. “Because this race is all about turnout.”

With Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and Paduchik at his side, Balderson told the volunteers that “there’s been some talk about us not really getting out there and not working,” though he assured them their efforts were not being overlooked.

“We know what you’re doing, we know the doors you’re hitting, we know the phone calls you’re making,” he said.

Republicans contend that their mobilization headaches are being compounded by the unusual timing of the race. Many voters are on vacation or going about their summers and unaware of the special election.

With that in mind, White House officials, who have been watching the contest with growing worry, dispatched Trump to the district in the hope he can fire up conservatives who might stay home on Tuesday. The president, who advisers said was eager to jump into the special election, lavished praise on Balderson while also offering up a greatest-hits like collection of attacks on the media, political rivals and the Russia investigation.

“I think what it does, perhaps most importantly, is it raises the profile of the race,” said Portman, who bemoaned the timing of the August election. “If you were to walk over to the Kroger here and ask people, ‘Is there a race? You know, is there a congressional race going on?’ Ninety percent of them would say, ‘What are you talking about?’”

The event was also designed to unify Republicans around Balderson, who narrowly survived a bruising primary fight against Melanie Leneghan, a Trump-aligned local official. Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a conservative House Freedom Caucus member and Leneghan backer, was in attendance, and the rally was held in Delaware County, where Leneghan is from.

Yet the president's fly-in carried considerable risk. Like dozens of other suburban districts around the country, Ohio’s 12th is filled with higher-income and upper-educated voters who have soured on the president, and some party officials are worried that the boisterous rally could turn those voters away from Balderson. The Monmouth poll showed Trump's approval rating in the district at just 46 percent. Trump received 53 percent of the vote in the district in 2016.

Those worries intensified on Saturday morning when, just hours before the rally, Trump took to Twitter to attack NBA legend LeBron James, an Ohio favorite son who recently opened a public school in Akron for at-risk youth.

Fearful of losing critical suburban voters turned off by the president’s rhetoric, Balderson has worked to cultivate the support of Kasich, a moderate figure and fierce Trump critic seen as a potential 2020 primary challenger to the president. During a recent phone call aimed at securing Kasich’s endorsement, Balderson assured the governor that he shared his opposition to Trump’s tariffs and family separations at the border, and told him that he’d be willing to buck leadership, said a person familiar with the conversation.

Unlike many other Republicans running this year, Balderson has avoided mentioning the president in general election TV ads; he has, however, highlighted work he’s done with Kasich. The governor, who formerly held the House seat, did not attend the Trump rally.

Jay Hottinger, a friend of Balderson's who serves alongside him in the state Senate, described Trump as “one of the most divisive presidents and political figures we’ve ever had” but said his visit was crucial for generating conservative interest in the contest.

“What we are seeing in polling, both nationally and in the 12th Congressional District, is that Democrats are more motivated to go out and vote,” he added.

In the minds of many Republicans, Tuesday’s contest has emerged as a critical test of whether they can win over Trump supporters while keeping moderates in the fold — and whether Democrats can succeed in the type of suburban districts they need to win the House.

“Up until now, these special elections have been highly overhyped. This special [election] is different, it’s truly an accurate reflection of where both parties’ bases are, as we leave the calm and head into the general election storm,” said Nick Everhart, an Ohio-based GOP strategist who is working on races across the country but is not involved in this one. “This election outcome is not overhyped, and it matters maybe more than the hype.”

O’Connor, the Franklin County recorder, is casting himself as an above-the-fray, middle-of-the-road figure. He has mostly avoided going after the president and instead focused on issues like entitlements, warning that Balderson wants to scale back Social Security benefits.

Campaigning with his parents at a Delaware street festival on Friday, O’Connor was asked by a supporter about Trump's alleged extramarital affair with porn star Stormy Daniels. The candidate changed the subject.

“It’s not a big deal to folks,” O'Connor said, when asked how voters in the district feel about the president. “People care more about the bread-and-butter stuff that keeps them up.”

But as the commander in chief prepared to venture to central Ohio, O’Connor couldn’t help but revel in his newfound momentum. At one point, he was stopped by a friend who congratulated him and told him that Republicans were “nervous.”

The fact that Trump was coming, O’Connor said, was proof that “Troy Balderson needs D.C. to bail him out.”



CORRECTION: The original version of this article mischaracterized the type of school LeBron James opened. It is a public school, not a charter school.

