Open this photo in gallery The Vancouver harbour is seen at dusk from Vancouver to North Vancouver, on Aug. 3, 2019. Experts agree that over the next 50 years British Columbia has a one-in-10 chance of being hit by a magnitude-9 earthquake. DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press

A massive earthquake on B.C.’s South Coast could disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Vancouver for several months, while bottled water and meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s dozen bridges, says an internal case study for Canada’s agriculture ministry.

The federal government wouldn’t be able to help much: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), the agency in charge of the response, would only be able to “facilitate” businesses and charities delivering such life-saving necessities, according to a March, 2018, case study and other internal documents obtained through freedom-of-information laws by Ottawa researcher Ken Rubin and passed on to The Globe and Mail.

The documents show the department has long been concerned about being designated to take a leading federal role in providing food and water if a province or territory asks Ottawa to pitch in on disaster relief. Things did not go well the lone time AAFC was asked for such assistance in recent years, when Public Safety Canada requested it source bottled water to give to asylum seekers crossing the border into Quebec in August, 2017.

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big earthquake could hamper relief efforts A big earthquake off the coast of southern British Columbia could hinder the distribution of relief supplies by damaging key infrastruc- ture such as bridges and reservoirs. An internal case study by Canada’s agriculture department found an earthquake of that force could disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Van- couver for several months, while bottled water and meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s bridges. Seymour Reservoir Legend Capilano Reservoir Coquitlam Reservoir Areas of key bridges Indian Arm Burrard Inlet Key northern reservoirs Coquitlam Vancouver Maple Ridge Surrey Fraser River Salvation Army depot Delta BRITISH COLUMBIA 0 5 Abbotsford KM JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada via ken rubin; GOOGLE MAPS big earthquake could hamper relief efforts A big earthquake off the coast of southern British Colum- bia could hinder the distribution of relief supplies by damaging key infrastructure such as bridges and reser- voirs. An internal case study by Canada’s agriculture department found an earthquake of that force could disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Vancou- ver for several months, while bottled water and meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s bridges. Seymour Reservoir Legend Coquitlam Reservoir Capilano Reservoir Areas of key bridges Indian Arm Burrard Inlet Key northern reservoirs Coquitlam Vancouver Maple Ridge Surrey Fraser River Salvation Army depot Delta BRITISH COLUMBIA 0 5 Abbotsford KM JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada via ken rubin; GOOGLE MAPS big earthquake could hamper relief efforts A big earthquake off the coast of southern British Columbia could hinder the distribution of relief supplies by damaging key infrastructure such as bridges and reservoirs. An internal case study by Canada’s agriculture department found an earthquake of that force could disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Vancouver for several months, while bottled water and meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s bridges. Seymour Reservoir Legend Coquitlam Reservoir Areas of key bridges Capilano Reservoir Indian Arm W. Van. Key northern reservoirs Pitt Lake N. Van. Burrard Inlet 0 5 Coquitlam KM Burnaby Vancouver Maple Ridge Steelhead Surrey Richmond Fraser River Langley City Salvation Army depot Delta Westham Island BRITISH COLUMBIA Boundary Bay Abbotsford JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada via ken rubin; GOOGLE MAPS

“The request revealed logistical challenges within AAFC surrounding how water would be sought (donation vs. procurement) as well as confusion regarding the responsibility for related actions within the department,” a memo to the deputy minister of the department stated.

Experts agree that over the next 50 years British Columbia has a one-in-10 chance of being hit by a magnitude-9 event, which is similar to the most recent megathrust earthquake, near Japan in 2011, which created a massive tsunami. But the case study, as well as an analysis commissioned by the federal department in 2015, shows not much progress is being made to address the gaps in how Ottawa would respond.

Unlike in the United States, where the Department of Agriculture and the Federal Emergency Management Agency stockpile food and water, Canada doesn’t have a dedicated disaster response agency and AAFC does not have warehouses full of supplies, according to the 2018 internal case study.

“AAFC would be challenged to lead the federal response to a request for safe food and water for public consumption due to the fact that AAFC is not an on-the-ground response system, has no direct access or ownership of food or water supplies, and has limited water-related expertise and resources,” the documents state.

Meanwhile, B.C.'s Emergency Management Agency noted its plans for how to provide potable water have been put on hold until it receives an update from Metro Vancouver, the regional body in charge of the area’s drinking-water network.

Metro Vancouver wouldn’t divulge its “multiyear" plans beyond saying five new water tunnels are being designed to current seismic standards. The organization did not provide an expected date for when these projects would be completed.

B.C. Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth has announced the province is planning to update its emergency-management laws by next fall to better manage and reduce the risks posed by natural disasters such as flooding and earthquakes. He noted the last time they were updated was in 1993.

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He said it’s understandable that the federal government doesn’t stockpile food.

“The question becomes, how long were you stockpiling it for? … Even water, if it was bottled water, for example, has a life. But those are the kinds of issues that we take into account in terms of our emergency planning,” Mr. Farnworth said.

“One of the reasons why we advise people to be ready, if there is a disaster, to have 72 hours worth of supplies on hand, is because it will take time, [and] depending on where you are it may in fact take longer to get help and services to you.”

John Clague, a professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University who has studied earthquakes for three decades, said AAFC’s case study shows the federal government agency is serious about identifying the major shortfalls in its response capability. But, he said, the report also reveals the major challenges faced by Metro Vancouver if even a magnitude-7.5 earthquake hits with an epicentre 50 kilometres or closer to the region.

A good comparison for Vancouver, Dr. Clague said, is the magnitude-6.3 quake that hit seven kilometres from Christchurch, New Zealand, and led to nearly 200 deaths and $20-billion in damage. A worst-case scenario on the Canadian West Coast would likely see hundreds of thousands of Vancouver residents scrambling for potable water in the days following such a quake, he said.

living on the edge An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could register higher than 9 on the Rich- ter scale, about as powerful as the Tohoku earthquake that devastated Japan in 2011. Nothing like it has occurred in British Columbia since Europeans first arrived, but traces of a massive quake that shook the entire region on Jan. 26, 1700, can still be found. Today, the same event would deal a crippling blow to communities and infrastructure in one of Canada’s most populous regions. British columbia Vancouver Seattle Victoria Coast Mountains u.s. Continental crust North American Plate Haida Gwaii Juan de Fuca Plate Pacific Plate Cascadia fault Pacific Ocean Oceanic crust Subduction zone Juan de Fuca plate is sliding underneath the Continental crust Mantle Partial melting ivan semeniuk and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS; GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA; POST MEDIA living on the edge An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could register higher than 9 on the Richter scale, about as pow- erful as the Tohoku earthquake that devastated Japan in 2011. Nothing like it has occurred in British Columbia since Europeans first arrived, but traces of a massive quake that shook the entire region on Jan. 26, 1700, can still be found. Today, the same event would deal a crippling blow to communities and infrastructure in one of Canada’s most populous regions. British columbia Vancouver Seattle Victoria Coast Mountains u.s. Tacoma Continental crust North American Plate Haida Gwaii Juan de Fuca Plate Pacific Plate Cascadia fault Pacific Ocean Subduction zone Oceanic crust Juan de Fuca plate is sliding underneath the Continental crust Mantle Partial melting ivan semeniuk and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS; GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA; POST MEDIA living on the edge An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could register higher than 9 on the Richter scale, about as powerful as the Tohoku earthquake that devastated Japan in 2011. Noth- ing like it has occurred in British Columbia since Europeans first arrived, but traces of a massive quake that shook the entire region on Jan. 26, 1700, can still be found. Today, the same event would deal a crippling blow to communities and infrastructure in one of Cana- da’s most populous regions. Canada British columbia Two plates u.s. Vancouver British Columbia borders two tectonic plates moving in opposite directions Coast Mountains Seattle Victoria Tacoma Continental crust Van. Island North American Plate Haida Gwaii Juan de Fuca Plate Cascadia fault Pacific Plate Subduction zone Pacific Ocean Juan de Fuca plate is sliding underneath the Continental crust Oceanic crust Mantle ivan semeniuk and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS; GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA; POST MEDIA Partial melting

“You can imagine the water supply system – which is basically feeding from our [three] North Shore reservoirs – would be broken,” Dr. Clague said. "These are subsurface lines, the infrastructure is old and it is going to be a long time at a huge cost before it is capable of resisting a worst-case earthquake.”

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Patrick Girard, an AAFC spokesman, said his department is working with the provinces to better understand when they feel they would need Ottawa’s help.

In the meantime, as recommended in the case study, AAFC has created a list of businesses and organizations that could be asked to provide food and water after a massive natural disaster, Mr. Girard confirmed.

If “The Big One” hits Vancouver, the AAFC case study found the non-governmental organization the province intends to lean on the most – the Salvation Army – could provide meals for 10,000 people a day.

But the charity said it has nowhere near the capacity to make 100,000 such meals, which would represent roughly one daily ration for every six people living in Vancouver.

The case study noted the Salvation Army has 13 food banks across the province and has asked local restaurants and the Save-On Foods grocery chain to donate meals in the aftermath of past natural disasters. Still, mobilizing the delivery of these supplies in Metro Vancouver could be impossible given that “a catastrophic earthquake in Southwestern B.C. would result in extensive damage to road and rail networks.”

“Even moving a mobile unit from Abbotsford [west] to the City of Vancouver could be hampered by damage to bridges,” the case study stated.

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John McEwan, the director of Emergency Disaster Services for the B.C. arm of the Salvation Army, said he is optimistic that within two days of a massive quake his organization could be pumping out up to 50,000 meals a day. Within a week, airdrops of water and food could vastly increase that capacity, he said, but the state of the region’s roads and bridges would dictate how easily these supplies could be distributed.

“There are ways to do this, but it won’t happen overnight,” said Mr. McEwan, who has been working in the field of disaster relief across the Western Hemisphere for two decades.

He said every household should stockpile enough food and water to last longer than the three days worth recommended by the province: “If I’m the preacher, I’m saying seven days.”

The Canadian Red Cross, the other organization with a memorandum of understanding to help British Columbia in the wake of a disaster, mainly pitches in to provide clothing, emergency lodging, reception and information, personal and family reunification services, the case study noted.

The charity e-mailed a statement to The Globe noting that it could also provide water and sanitation after a catastrophic disaster and it has “access to resources and expertise from around the world through the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement.”

AAFC has long been uncomfortable with its stated responsibility of providing food and water if a province or territory asks Ottawa to pitch in on disaster relief.

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In 2015, the AAFC commissioned an analysis from an outside consultant that recommended the department lobby the federal government to change the national emergency response plan adopted in 2011 to better reflect AAFC’s inability to provide food and water.

The 2015 report, which Mr. Rubin also received and passed to The Globe, responded to the AAFC’s request to provide a rationale for shifting this responsibility to Health Canada, which is responsible for medical supplies.

The consultant’s report found AAFC was the best department to stickhandle the emergency response because it “has strong existing networks that could be leveraged in an emergency event, and could serve as the basis for broadened partnerships, with respect to both food and water."

An appendix to the report stated: “We are of the view that AAFC would encounter strong resistance from both Public Safety Canada and the Health Portfolio to any proposal that the lead role for securing safe food should move away from AAFC.”

With a report from Justine Hunter in Victoria

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