Donald Trump’s rapid ascendency to the top of the Republican polls—and the blinding media spotlight surrounding him that has rendered all other 2016 contenders seemingly mute—has baffled nearly every observer. Even his longtime friends (and enemies) are fascinated. When I reached him this week on vacation, Las Vegas developer mogul Steve Wynn, who has been on both the enemies and the friends side of that equation with Trump, said simply, “I am as mystified about it as you are.” As he continued, “It certainly is a spectacular and perverse moment in political history. There’s no precedent for this.”

“What I am certain of,” the gaming mogul averred, “is that when you and I have this conversation next year, we will both agree unequivocally how convoluted and how mercurial the events of the world are. Neither one of us will have ever predicted the political environment of America [a year from now] as surely as I know my own name.”


Added Wynn, “Intervening events will be dramatic and unpredictable. That’s the kind of world we’re living in.” The Trump boomlet, too, Wynn insisted, shall pass.

But how it shall pass is a serious point of debate among campaign observers. With some help from Politico Magazine, Wynn’s challenge was put to top political thinkers: how does Trump’s unprecedented campaign end? Will Trump fizzle out soon, or endure for months? Will he succumb to pressure from the RNC, the GOP establishment and other candidates? Or only earn more attention as the race drags on? And is Trump ever truly “done”—or would he jump back into the race as a third party candidate?

“Maybe people will get tired of me,” Trump mused Friday in an interview with Morning Joe. Or perhaps they won’t. Below appear the best predictions collected from the respondents who dared speculate about how The Donald’s spectacular rise ends – Jon Ralston, Politico Magazine contributing editor.

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‘There’s a more-than-reasonable chance that he pulls a Perot and runs as an independent.’

By Bob Shrum, Democratic presidential strategist.

Trump is ripe for a Bentsen-Quayle moment in the first debate. Bush, Rubio, et al—no longer reticent in the face of Trump’s pandering to the basest elements of the base, the “crazies”—are preparing the putdown right now. The question is who gets the right opening first. But one candidate who won’t be looking for the opportunity is Cruz; he’s angling to take the reins of Trump’s buckboard of bigotry when Trump falls off and then ride it to the nomination.

He may have to wait. Trump can be scorched in the debate; but he won’t flame out because he won’t run out of money, even if he is a few billion shy of ten. He can hold on indefinitely, and he’s not the type to recognize reality and retreat from the race. In the end, denied a nomination he can’t win, there’s a more-than-reasonable chance that he pulls a Perot and runs as an independent. That’s what I’m rooting for and would advise the Great Bloviator to do. The “crazies” deserve a voice, and he’s it. And the GOP deserves to pay a price—the presidency—for appeasing and exploiting the politics of nativism and resentment that has spawned and nourished the low, mean Know-Nothingism of Donald Trump.

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‘If the GOP keeps pounding Trump instead of ignoring him, they buy him time.’

By Erick Erikson, frequent commentator, radio host and founder of the blog RedState .

Congress goes on recess in August, you have the GOP debate and people will start to take a look at all the other candidates in relation to Trump. I think he begins a decline toward Iowa. If you delve into the polling, a lot of people who are right now saying they intend to vote for Trump are really saying they just like what he is saying. As others begin to get attention, he fades. One caveat though: if the GOP keeps pounding Trump instead of ignoring him, they buy him time. The longer the party elite bash Trump, the more the base loves him.

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‘Donald Trump is not only not hurting the GOP, he is a boon to it.’

By Mary Matalin, Republican political strategist.

With apologies to, and respect for, my conservative friends and colleagues, Donald Trump is not only not hurting the GOP, he is a boon to it. Candidates would be well advised to pay close attention to the forensics of his approach, and apply their own unique personalities and policies to their campaign efforts. And the GOP leadership should quit insulting him, giving him an excuse to mount a third party candidacy.

Among other strategic and tactical triumphs, Trump is exhibiting in pulsing neon colors the contemporary political parallel universes of Common Sense America and Conventional Wisdom Establishment. CS America is, and has been for some time been, so over the incompetent, posturing national politicians as well as their irrelevant agenda issues and their counterproductive policies. They are aching for candidates with authenticity who will address their everyday concerns. AND do not presume a preference for their common sense world makes them redneck philistines.

Further he is exposing the multiple fallacies of CW Establishment politics, to wit: appealing to nontraditional GOP voters requires narrow and corrupt Identity Politics tactics; message resonance demands mandatory acceptance of any and all CW Politically Correct premises, including gratuitous, phony, solicitous kowtowing to the media; that strict avoidance of establishmentarian “third rail” issues is political kamikaze.

Once he gets to the debates, he will have to connect his bombastic iconoclastic antics to authentic policy prescriptions, as well as demonstrate his potential effectiveness by past performance metrics

Bottom line: he will not blow up, but could pump up overly-reserved candidacies.

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‘He is the voice of the GOP. Hell, he’s even the hair of the GOP.’

By Paul Begala, political analyst for CNN and counselor to President Bill Clinton.

When it comes to Mr. Trump, I know this: he reflects the views of today’s Republican Party. Here’s proof: 64 percent of Republicans agree with the broader statement that, “President Obama is hiding important information about his background and early life.” And 34 percent of Republicans go full-on birther: saying of Republicans think it’s likely that president Obama is not a US citizen; that he was not born in America (Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. poll, Dec., 2014). This, of course, is an issue Mr. Trump has highlighted.

68 percent of Republicans say Mr. Trump is right on immigration. (Fox News poll, July 17, 2015). This was after he said those rather, umm, controversial things about Mexican immigrants. 22 percent of Republicans even agree with his hateful attack on John McCain—saying McCain was not a war hero (PPP Poll 7/22/15).

Mr. Trump is the face of the GOP: angry, white and male. He is the voice of the GOP. Hell, he’s even the hair of the GOP.

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‘How long? As long as he wants.’

By Joe Trippi, Democratic political strategist.

Never, ever ever underestimate Trump’s staying power and ability to dominate media attention. In a field this large he could be around for a long time—potentially a lot longer than many of the other GOP candidates who have derided his chances of being their nominee. On running as a 3rd party candidate—someone should remind the GOP that Trump is a tough as nails negotiator and he would have plenty of leverage. How long? As long as he wants.

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‘He can’t sustain the weight of multiple attacks.’

By Rick Wilson, national Republican message and media strategist.

The Trump show ends when the other candidates follow Perry and Rubio, get off their asses and knock his dick in the dirt. Do a deep oppo dive on Trump and go to work. Trump’s verbal incontinence prevents him from being able to restrain himself, and as they start banging him on his liberal political background, his casino deals, rickety real estate empire, multiple bankruptcies, the Trump-U scam, and so on, Trump will respond, over and over. He can’t sustain the weight of multiple attacks.

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‘There is nobody strong enough to stop him.’

By Van Jones, former Obama administration special advisor for green jobs.

Do not underestimate Donald Trump. He is in this race to stay. He will be a defining force through the primary season. As long as there are a dozen or more other candidates, there is nobody strong enough to stop him. A man who has no shame cannot be embarrassed or hounded out of the race—no matter how many offensive, racist or ludicrous things he says. Also: the media is addicted to Trump. They hate themselves for indulging him, but they refuse to go to rehab. Hold onto your hats! This guy is for real. And he will go the distance in the GOP primary—and maybe beyond the GOP primary, as an independent candidate.

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‘The first debate will tell us all we need to know.’

By SE Cupp, conservative political commentator.

The first debate will tell us all we need to know. Does Trump come with policy points and substantive responses? Will he respect the other candidates, the format, the moderator? Will he attempt to look presidential? Or will he interrupt, call people “dummies,” and punt on any real questions? If next to Walker, Jeb, Rubio, et al he looks like a cartoon, we’ll probably see the polls reflect that. If that gives him an off ramp to exit, maybe he’ll take it. If on the other hand he performs well, why would he go anywhere?

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‘He doesn’t have to be even remotely viable to be a dangerous.’

By Ed Kilgore, liberal commentator, blogger at Washington Monthly’s Political Animal and Managing Editor at The Democratic Strategist .

It’s early to predict much of anything about anybody, but I’d say Donald Trump has the ego, the money and probably the motivation to take his campaign into the general election as an independent. That doesn’t mean he’ll succeed as well as Ross Perot in 1992 or even 1996. But in a campaign that could be a very close major party barnburner, he doesn’t have to be even remotely viable to be a dangerous and impossible-to-ignore factor, especially for Republican Party elites he clearly enjoys tormenting. And his appeal is heavily concentrated in a white working class demographic that Republicans just cannot afford to lose much of—Romney won 61 percent in 2012—and still hope to win.

What else is a 70-year-old narcissist going to do with all the attention he’s mustered? Retire? Do another TV show? I don’t think so.

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‘Donald Trump will ... exit before the parade of judgement days we call elections.’

By Stuart Stevens, Republican strategist and the chief advisor for the 2012 Romney presidential campaign.

Put me down in the camp of being highly skeptical that Donald Trump will be on the ballot in Iowa or NH. Running for President is a uniquely humbling experience for all involved. The process has no respect for wealth, status or power. All of that argues, to me, that Donald Trump will use the system to make the points he is making and exit before the parade of judgement days we call elections.

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‘Trump's act will grow tiresome.’

By Peter Wehner, former deputy director of speechwriting for President George W. Bush.

How the Trump campaign for president ends is hard to predict, since Trump himself is a deeply erratic individual. He shifts positions literally within hours, so knowing what he'll do months from now is impossible. But I do have a better feel, I think, for how Trump will play over time with Republican voters. The short answer: Not well.

My guess is that Trump’s candidacy is best understood as a months-long political conflagration that will begin to burn itself out by the late summer. Mr. Trump is a genius at getting attention, and he's clearly tapped into a deep vein of unhappiness among Republican voters—unhappiness with the politicians and the political class, with government and the media and with the state of America. Right now he’s a vehicle for lots of people's outrage.

But Trump's act will grow tiresome. The intensity surrounding him can't be sustained. And reality will soon take hold. His own past (and recent) liberal positions—there are many of them—are going to create serious doubts among the conservative base. Mr. Trump’s lack of substance and shallowness will catch up to him. And his non-stop crudity and insults, which some people might have found amusing at first, will wear thin. (In my experience, presidential candidates who ridicule POWs who were tortured usually don’t have a lot of staying power.) People who were initially drawn to him will begin to be embarrassed by him. Even now, while he leads several national polls in a splintered field, his negatives are extreme high. They'll go higher. He’s a stunningly target-rich environment.

This is the time in a political campaign when people’s impressions are fluid, their views of the candidates unsettled, and they feel they have the luxury to indulge even circus clowns. This, too, shall pass. So even if Trump doesn’t lose interest in the race, more and more Republican voters will lose interest in him. For a narcissist like Trump, that's the worst possible fate.

It hard for many people to imagine now, when Trump is the focal point of American politics, but come early fall—and maybe even sooner than that—my guess is that what many people will think of when they think of Donald Trump is boring. Tedious. The crazy uncle in the attic.

If Trump doesn't end this charade, Republican voters will happily do it for him.

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‘I’ll go with the scenario that has Trump leaving the Republican party to run as an independent candidate.’

By Anita Dunn, Democratic political strategist and the White House Communications Director from April through November 2009.

The Trump Show will last longer than your typical summer blockbuster that has a glitzy opening, gets bad reviews, makes plenty of noise, has lots of explosions, attracts a lot of eyeballs the first weekend out and then disappears until it runs endless loops on cable. Ignore the similarities! His financial disclosure suggests a serious effort at a campaign, and he is tapping a chord with a segment of the Republican electorate that no one else is right now. So I’ll go with the scenario that has Trump leaving the Republican Party to run as an independent candidate, sometime before Iowa but after a number of debates (so he gets maximum publicity but never loses a primary or caucus). Hey, he’s got the money to go the independent route!

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‘The air is coming out of the balloon.’

By John Feehery, president of QGA Public Affairs.

The air is coming out of the balloon. Trump will hurt himself with undisciplined comments and he will cease to be a candidate by the end of the year. He will not run as a third party candidate, unless his daughter and Chelsea Clinton have some sort of private agreement that we know nothing about.

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‘Believe that Trump has more staying power.’

By Douglas Schoen, pollster for President Bill Clinton.

Believe that Trump has more staying power than some may think because of the profound anger the Republican base has with the Republican establishment.

A recent Quinnipiac poll in Colorado, Virginia and Iowa showed high negatives for Trump, but so, too, do Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton have high negatives—indicating that the American electorate is disaffected across the board. Trump ultimately will not be the Republican nominee, and he almost certainly won’t run as an Independent, though he may well hint at the possibility.

What Trump’s candidacy does is to underscore profoundly, as does Bernie Sanders, how much anger there is across the board in America. With very good reason!

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‘His candidacy is shining a bright light on some of the most intolerant factions in the right wing.’

By Bill Burton, former senior strategist for Priorities USA Action, a super PAC in support of President Barack Obama.

My view is that there is great value in the fact that his candidacy is shining a bright light on some of the most intolerant factions in the right wing. My hope is that he sticks around just long enough for America to snuff out some of the worst of what he represents.

My friend Paul Begala taught me that cockroaches are around even if you don’t see them—but you’ll never be able to kill them unless you turn the lights on.

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‘Who the hell knows.’

By Ana Navarro, Florida-based Republican strategist.

Who the hell knows what the final episode of the Trump telenovela will be. You are better off asking that question of a psychiatrist, not a political analyst.

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