Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 232 Bush 285

New polls: AL AR CA CO FL IA IL IN MI MN MO NC NJ NM NV OH OK PA WA

News from the Votemaster

John Edwards won the vice-presidential debate 41% to 28% among uncommitted voters according to a CBS poll. An online poll conducted by MSNBC makes the margin of Edwards victory even larger: 67% to 33%. While the MSNBC poll was not a scientific poll, it did have 885,000 responses, so it was a very large poll of Internet users.

The effect of the first presidential debate is starting to kick in. Kerry is surging and Bush is dropping. Kerry has retaken the lead in all-important Ohio by 49% to 48%, New Mexico by 46% to 43%, and Iowa by 48% to 47%. While all of these are within the margin of error, previous polls had Bush ahead in these states by more than the margin of error. Clearly the forward motion Kerry has been experiencing in the national polls this week is starting to show up in the state polls as well. On the other hand, Bush has taken the lead in Pennsylvania by a margin of 48% to 47%.

I got tons of mail about averaging. The response is overwhelmingly against averaging. When I wasn't doing it, many people said I should do it. Now that I am doing it, many people say I shouldn't. If I may paraphrase a famous Republican, "You can please some of the people all of the time and you can please all of the people some of the time but you can't please all the people all the time." I dropped the averaging and went back to the old scheme of listing the most recent poll. If two polls have the same middle date, the shorter one wins. If two (or more) polls have exactly the same polling interval, they are averaged.

Many teachers have sent me mail telling me how they use the site to discuss the election in their classes. There is material for history classes (why is there an electoral college?), geography (why are some states red and some states blue?), math (how can you predict a whole state by asking 800 people?) and more. If you are a teacher looking for more material about the election to use in your classes, take a look at the Lesson Plans Page.

-- The votemaster