When Texas hired Tom Herman after the 2016 season, they were fresh off three consecutive seasons with seven losses. With Charlie Strong going 6-7, 5-7, and 5-7 in his three seasons, at the time, making three bowl games, let alone winning three bowl games sounded like a pipe dream.

Well, that is exactly what Herman has done, guiding the Longhorns to bowl wins in his first three seasons in charge. Much improvement from Strong’s tenure in Austin. The issue though, is that the standard was raised in 2018 when Texas made their way to the Big 12 Championship game and beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

From that point on, that type of success was what was expected from Herman going forward, beginning in 2019. However, the Longhorns flopped, going 7-5 on the year, losing some games in ugly fashion along the way. Losing to LSU and Oklahoma may have been expected, but losses like TCU and Iowa State are in-explainable for a team who was supposed to take a jump towards double-digit wins in the regular season.

Going into the 2020 season, things must improve and the bad losses must be a thing of the past for Texas. Much of the excuse throughout last season was the coordinators in place and how a change was needed. Now, the change has been made and Herman has hired Mike Yurcich as the offensive coordinator and Chris Ash as the defensive coordinator. Both with stellar performances in the same positions at previous schools, the two are expected to instantly improve both sides of the ball.

The schedule is fairly similar, playing two easier non-conference opponents, LSU, and the usual Big 12 foes. Facing the Tigers in Death Valley will be a difficult task, but no matter the result, the game will not effect Texas’ standing in the conference. Already giving thoughts on the 2020 schedule, it should work out in favor of the Longhorns, getting most of their hardest conference opponents at home.

Possibly the most important factor to the upcoming season is Sam Ehlinger and his final stand. Going into his third full season as the starting quarterback, he is expected to be one of the best at his positions in the Big 12. Gaining Heisman hype the past two seasons may be unfair, but the signal-caller should be playing at a level that can win Texas ball games. If he can consistently play at a high level, then Texas should hold up to expectations.

With all of this stacking in favor of the Longhorns, if Herman and the staff fail to deliver, will his time be up as head coach? The answer is that it depends on the final results. If that is another 7-5 season with losses to both LSU and Oklahoma while suffering some head-scratching losses throughout the Big 12 schedule, Herman’s seat will be scorching hot and may be coming to an end.

A win against the Tigers or in the Red River Shootout would more than likely buy him some more time, especially if he can beat Oklahoma again. Even going 1-1 in these games, 9-3 is the least of the expectations for Texas in the upcoming season. There is no reason to be losing games in a similar fashion to TCU and Iowa State from last season. Returning most of their starters on both sides of the ball, experience alone should carry the Longhorns towards nine wins.

Anything less than that (and maybe a Big 12 championship appearance) and it may be time to move on from Herman. Four years as a head coach is usually enough time and being barely bowl eligible is not the level the University of Texas expects to be at. Even after three consecutive seven loss seasons, Herman raised the expectations after the Sugar Bowl in 2018. It is time to fulfill those and consistently be at the top of the Big 12.