Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has rejected Nicolas Maduro's demand that he withdraw U.S. diplomats by Saturday afternoon. I suspect he's done so in order to encourage a systemic breach between Maduro and the Venezuelan military that keeps him in power.

Pompeo knows that the Venezuelan military's support for Maduro is not, ultimately, ideological in nature. Rather, it reflects Maduro's mass-bribery of the military's top ranks — the abundant patronage he is providing. The military's general officer ranks have become very wealthy as a result of this corruption.

Yet, even if they are immoral, they are not irrational. Maduro might rant about "extreme imperialist insolence" as he demands the U.S. withdraw its diplomats, but the military is the only means by which he can effect that withdrawal.

Any military attack on the U.S. embassy would invite a violent exchange with the embassy's Marine security garrison. It would also become a standing invitation for the Marine FAST team, which is likely being moved proximate to Venezuela even as we speak. Even if the Venezuelan generals could win a short-term struggle for control of the embassy compound, any loss of American life would not only be matched by significant Venezuelan military casualties (the embassy's terrain is well-suited to a defensive action), but it would also become a legitimate casus belli. An attack on the U.S. would hasten the demise of the officers involved or lead to their future lifetime spent in a U.S. federal penitentiary.

While Pompeo is certainly playing a high-risk game here, it would be unfair to suggest he's using U.S. diplomats as simple pawns of brinkmanship. After all, President Trump on Wednesday officially recognized Venezuelan National Assembly chief, Juan Guaido, as his nation's interim president. Guaido has requested that the U.S. retain its diplomatic presence against Maduro's wishes. To now evacuate U.S. diplomats would degrade U.S. foreign policy credibility and moral leadership — concerns, we should note, that Trump's critics have often suggested he ignores.

We must also note that all of this takes place against the backdrop of the massive street mobilization against Maduro. Pompeo knows that with the generals watching the reverberations against Maduro's rule, they have added reason to question their continued support for Maduro. The tide, likely measured by U.S. intelligence assessments as well as the street momentum, seems to be shifting.

There are risks here. Maduro retains nominal control over the Venezuelan armed forces, and he has a penchant for unpredictable action. The president might also rely on his "colectivos" — armed ideological supporters — to conduct any action against the U.S.

Still, I doubt it. Even Maduro can't be so stupid as to use force against the United States. It would invite the end of his regime. It's also crucial to note here that the U.S. is giving Maduro an easy way out — an offer of safe passage to a wealthy retirement — if he steps down now. In that offer and the corollary escalation of U.S. pressure, it is clear the Trump administration senses the moment has come to bring matters to a head.