If the UK and the European Union have not agreed a trade deal by the summer of 2020 that keeps the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland open, a British prime minister will have to decide whether to buy more time or keep the UK aligned to EU rules for years to come.



European diplomats have been told for the first time that UK and EU negotiators are working on a mechanism to review in July 2020 whether the so-called backstop, an insurance policy to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland under all circumstances, will need to be activated, according to a diplomatic note.

The note, seen by BuzzFeed News, states that under the proposed backstop architecture, there would be three possible options come the summer of 2020:

The backstop becomes superfluous because a hard border will have been avoided through an agreement on the future UK–EU relationship;

The transition period, currently planned to last until the end of that year, is extended, buying negotiators more time;

Or the backstop is activated, and the UK enters into a customs union with the EU.

The longer transition and backstop options presented to diplomats on Friday would require the UK to remain aligned to EU competition, state aid, and tax rules — a possibility likely to enrage some hardline Tory Brexiteers, who have demanded a clear break from them.

And, if the backstop is triggered, Northern Ireland would remain in the EU’s regulatory space for goods as a customs union alone would not guarantee frictionless trade. The permanence of special arrangements for Northern Ireland in the overall Brexit deal is likely to anger the DUP. On Friday, the party accused Theresa May of breaking her promises over plans to avoid a hard border after a letter from the prime minister to DUP leader Arlene Foster was leaked to the Times.

Negotiations have been stuck on the issue of the backstop for months. The solution the EU had proposed — to be used only if an alternative, and a future trade deal, was not agreed in time — would see the UK in a customs union, and Northern Ireland remaining, in effect, in the EU’s single market for goods.

Solving the backstop is crucial to securing a withdrawal agreement and a transition period. Without consensus on that issue, negotiations will not move on to discussions about a future trade deal — and there will be no deal.