SAN FRANCISCO — Tim Lincecum is the cautionary tale. For everyone.

He is the player who turned down $100 million (over five years) with eyes on perhaps as much as $200 million. But Lincecum has fallen so far, so fast that in the words of one NL executive, “Barry Zito is starting a World Series game instead of him.”

And the Giants are the team that dodged a financial nuke aimed directly at their payroll. Cue the sighs of relief for not being committed to five years at $20 million annually for a pitcher who just A.J. Burnett-ed a season, producing the NL’s worst ERA (5.18) among qualifiers since 2009.

A team probably has not been this fortuitous to have a player spurn a mega-deal since Juan Gonzalez rejected a seven-year, $148 million proposal from the Tigers before the 2000 season, and then going into steady, steep decline. If Gonzalez were that kind of debacle for Detroit, might the Tigers have been too monetarily shell-shocked to give the eight-year, $152.3 million pact that it did to Miguel Cabrera prior to the 2008 season?

You can draw a straight line from Cabrera’s acquisition/extension to the Tigers’ appearance in the World Series. There have been 36 nine-figure pacts in history and Cabrera’s is one of the few that does not fall between troublesome and utter disaster such as Zito’s seven-year, $126 million boondoggle.

There have been some suggestions Zito’s strong work this postseason, including Game 1 last night, makes the pact tolerable. But Zito’s 4.47 ERA is the worst in Giants history (minimum 1,000 innings) and his 5.15 ERA in 2008 is the seventh-worst ever in a season for a Giant qualifier since 1900. It had been sixth, but that now belongs to Lincecum’s 5.18.

Like Zito during the Giants’ 2010 championship run, Lincecum has been pulled from the rotation. To his credit, he has become a valuable reliever. Lincecum replaced Zito last night and with 92-mph heat and a wipeout slider, he retired all seven batters he faced (five by strikeout) in the Giants’ 8-3 rout of the Tigers.

But one of the biggest mysteries of the 2012 season had been why had that elite stuff departed the two-time Cy Young winner. There were always concerns that the elements that made him The Freak — small body, contorted delivery — would trigger premature evaporation of his stuff; and his velocity and deception were down as a starter.

Lincecum, 28, is signed for $22 million in 2013, his walk year. The Giants already think his 95-mph-plus stuff is gone forever. But they believe they have detected a delivery glitch that if fixed would facilitate a rebound that no one needs more than Lincecum, who would be hard-pressed to entice more than a one-year pact, much less $100 million, if he does not bounce back.

I asked seven outside officials if the Giants could trade Lincecum and pretty much each painted a scenario summed up well by an AL personnel head who said, “His stock is at an all-time low with an exorbitant salary. There is more value to the Giants if they can recoup his value vs. selling low, absorbing salary, getting nothing in return as far as prospects and allowing another team to benefit if he bounces back.”

Add one other item: Lincecum might be the most popular Giant, thus trading him for essentially nothing hardly would be popular by the Bay. Still, where Lincecum currently ranks with Giants decision-makers is overt: Zito and Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 11.25 ERA in two postseason starts) are starting the first two World Series games, making Lincecum the most accomplished long man, perhaps ever.

But it could have been so much worse for the Giants — Lincecum could have been the $100 million long man.

FREE-AGENT ICHIRO WANTS TO RETURN

The Giants were working hard to obtain Ichiro Suzuki before the Yankees did in late July and probably would have interest in the free agent this winter. But a person close to Ichiro told me he strongly wants to stay with the Yankees because he so enjoyed playing in a professional, winning atmosphere with so many contemporaries near his age range.

The friend said he can’t imagine money being a factor, noting that to make matters work when he wanted to be in Seattle, Ichiro deferred $5 million a year on his last long-term contract. The implication was that a one-year deal, perhaps with an option, in the $5 million-to-$8 million range might get it done.

But the Yankees still plan to build around lefty power, which makes it more difficult to shoehorn both Ichiro and Brett Gardner onto the roster unless the Yankees plan to downgrade Gardner to more of a fourth-outfielder type. Brian Cashman said yesterday, “We haven’t had our pro scouting meetings yet, when we do we will rank the available players and we will see where [Ichiro] ranks and how it fits once everyone starts engaging the market [in trades and free agency].”

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Anyone who watched Toronto play the Yankees late in the season with a lack of fundamental soundness (particularly on the bases) and limited passion has to wonder why Boston was so gung-ho to obtain John Farrell to succeed Bobby Valentine as manager.

A Farrell ally, though, made a case. In part, he said Toronto had brought in a crew of talented players who were only available because of questionable make-ups such as Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus and who were not reached by previous managers either.

“Could [Farrell] have done a better job?” the ally asked rhetorically. “Yes, but he had a difficult hand. And he might not be the best candidate for everyone, but he is the best candidate for the Red Sox [where he was the pitching coach from 2007-10] because after the disaster of Bobby, the Red Sox players know and believe in Farrell. He is what they needed to restore sanity. And Toronto gave him to a division rival. I think that is a mistake.”