The Hurricanes are at a potential turning point in their season. If they want to be in a race for a playoff spot in April, they desperately need to keep up with the rest of their division. In hockey, you always hear the phrase “You never win a championship in October, but you definitely can lose one”. That is true for the Canes, and has been for several years now. They always seem to dig themselves into a hole, and spend the rest of the season trying to get back to level. This does not have to be the case this year.

When breaking down an NHL season, there are usually multiple ways to split the games up for analysis. Some people like to look at a season in 10 game segments, some like to break it down into quarters or halves. I prefer to break a season down by month. A typical month in an NHL season usually holds 12-14 games, with exception of October and April because the regular season starts and ends in the middle of the month.

Looking Back

If you split up the Hurricanes 15-16 season by month, it confirms everything the Canes Staff and Front Office preached this off season. Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis and head coach Bill Peters both stressed the need to get a better start. They could not have been more right. The Canes finished the season 10 points out of a wild-card spot and were on the outside looking in. This left the Hurricanes, and fans alike, wondering what could have been. Could they have made the post season if they turned their bad start around 4 or 5 games earlier?

Looking at the monthly breakdown we can decipher two things. First, the Hurricanes dug themselves into a hole early on. In the first two months of the season the Canes went 8-12-4, which gave them only 20 points in their first 24 games. Second, from December on, they went 27-19-12. That is a significant turn around and the Hurricanes kept moving up in the standings until they were in a race for wild-card berth.

A couple of things culminated in the Canes being able to right a sinking ship. The Hurricanes were featuring three rookie defensemen in Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Noah Hanifin. This was one of the reasons for the first two months going sideways for the Canes, but they were committed to their young defense. After the young defensemen had a chance to learn the league and settle in, they excelled the rest of the season. The other thing that happened leading into December, was that Cam Ward and Eddie Lack both found their game. Cam Ward has shown that he can get into a rhythm, if given a chance. When given that chance he did just that, taking over the number one spot in net. Eddie Lack also found his game and settled into his role as back up.

Those two components coming together at the same time, along with the team buying into Bill Peters puck possession heavy system, made for an amazing turn around. The Hurricanes were an exciting team to watch, and started to garner some attention nationally. The one thing that held them back in the end was a lack of offensive production.

Slow Start

The start to this season has not gone as planned for the Hurricanes. After the December turn around from last year, the Canes had a lot of hype coming into this year. However, going 5-6-4 thus far has taken a lot of wind out of their sails. The young defensemen who debuted last year, have been going through a bit of a sophomore slump. On top of that the goaltending had been non-existent early on this season. Ward and Lack have split most of the time so far, and the Canes really need someone to take over as the number one starter.

Sitting towards the bottom of the Metropolitan Division has fans starting to whisper “Tank for Nolan”. This is of course in hopes of drafting Nolan Patrick who is slotted to go first overall in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. However, I would advise any of those fans to hold that thought. The Hurricanes were in this position around this same time last season and ended up making a strong push for the playoffs.

Looking Forward

Several things should have Canes fans optimistic about the rest of this season. Remember when I mentioned the thought of what could have been if the Hurricanes had turned around their season just 4 or 5 games earlier? Well that is happening right now. The month of November this season, is looking a lot like last season’s December. The Canes have won back-to-back games for the first time this season and are starting to build momentum. If the Hurricanes can take advantage of the last two games of this five game home stand, they can put themselves back into the mix. The Hurricanes can get back on track if they take advantage of the last two games of this home stand.

You can think of a hockey team as a puzzle, except this puzzle only has three puzzle pieces. A successful team needs those three puzzle pieces to all come together simultaneously. First you need a defense that can shut down other teams, while still being able to move the puck up the ice. Second you need goal tending that can bail the defense out when they make mistakes, and keep a team with in striking distance in a game. The third piece is a potent offense.

The one bright spot so far had been the Hurricanes much improved offense. They have a 2.6 goals per game average compared to 2.41 from the previous season. The influx of scoring has been the life line holding the Hurricanes afloat through the first portion of the season. What has lacked has been the goaltending and defense, however those are both starting to look promising.

Cam Ward is having a stellar November, with line of 3-1-2/1.608 GAA/.941 SV%. The Canes will need to let Lack have a start or two to keep him fresh, but it looks as though Ward is taking control as the go to guy.

[HIGHLIGHT] Cam Ward made all 12 saves in the first period, including this one on Matt Nieto. #SJSvsCAR #Redvolution pic.twitter.com/nQwM9giWx9

— Carolina Hurricanes (@NHLCanes) November 16, 2016

In front of Ward, the defense is starting to revert back to last season’s form. One of the Hurricanes defensive strengths is their shot suppression ability. With a SA/GP (Shots Against per Games Played) of 27.5, the Canes rank 5th in the league. And so far in November that number is even lower at 27.2. Currently the Hurricanes best defensive pairing is Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. They boast a CF% of 54.3 and 57.3 respectively, which makes it tough for other teams to put shots on net.

With it looking like the three key components are coming together for the Hurricanes, do not count them out just yet. If the Canes can keep this momentum going, they will be in the thick of things come April, and Carolina could be hosting playoff hockey again for the first time since 2009.