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As Apple and other companies warn about the impact of the coronavirus and skepticism about Beijing’s data around confirmed cases increases, money managers and analysts are looking for signs of when China’s economy can restart.

Millions of people have been quarantined and production and operations ground to a halt in a bid to contain the deadly virus, now known as Covid-19. The latest survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai of member companies with manufacturing operations in Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing and the wider Yangtze River Delta last week shows the challenges ahead.

More than three-quarters of the companies don’t have enough staff to run a production line. Some 41% of those businesses cited a lack of staff as the biggest challenge in the next two to four weeks.

About 30% cited logistics issues. The survey found that 38% of companies don’t have enough masks or other supplies to protect their staff from the coronavirus. More than one-third said offering a clearer explanation of requirements to reopen factories is the most important thing government officials could do to speed up approvals.

Nearly half of the companies said their global operations have already been affected by the shutdown. That last data point is what is worrying strategists and analysts in the U.S.

While investors are keeping track of the pace of new cases of the virus, and questioning the data coming out of China, the focus for those watching the global supply chain and the potential effects on companies’ earnings is on when China’s economy starts up again.

In a note to clients on Monday, Raymond James’s macro research team noted a disconnect between market reaction about the virus and the warnings coming from medical experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization, and National Institutes of Health. “These officials are sounding the alarms and yet the market seems to be largely discounting them,” the macro team wrote. “The officials are saying they expect more community infections in other countries and that they believe this virus won’t be a one and done like SARS. The idea this virus could continue through the summer or return next year undercuts the consistent refrain from investors that this will be a one-time hit and the market can ignore it.”

The likelihood of notable widespread cases in the U.S. is now one in five, compared with one in seven earlier, they said. The next two to four weeks will be crucial in determining whether the U.S. could see a wider outbreak, the team said.

Here’s what analysts, economists and strategists are watching to see how bad the pain could get:

• Singapore. The island nation has more than 75 cases and its tropical climate makes it a good place to watch to see if there is any truth to the view that the virus could lose speed once temperatures warm. There also appears to be “community spread,” with individuals contracting the virus who can’t be traced to people who have either been to China or who are known to be infected. “The outbreak in Singapore may be the best example of what potentially could come to the U.S. It also may result in more travel restrictions,” wrote the Raymond James analysts.

• Capital Economics Chief Economist Neil Shearing is tracking gauges like daily coal consumption at power plants to assess electricity demand—a proxy for factories starting up again—and passenger traffic as a gauge for migrant workers beginning to head back home. Passenger traffic is down 60% from the same period around the Lunar New Year holiday last year. Energy consumption has failed to rebound following its usual drop over the holidays.

• There are also signs the disruptions are spreading to China’s neighbors, Shearing wrote. Imports by South Korea from China for the first 10 days of the month fell by nearly 50% from the prior year—the biggest decline since the Asian financial crisis in 1999.

The question is how quickly a recovery can come. A prolonged shutdown could mean that the lost output isn’t recouped. It could increase the possibility the virus sparks a “black swan” event in China—possibly in the property market or in the energy patch, Shearing wrote.

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com