Report: Traditional TV Market Share to Drop to 60% by 2030 A new report by The Diffusion Group (TDG) predicts that the traditional pay TV industry will shrink 26% by 2030. As a result, traditional television will reach only 60% of households -- compared to the 81% currently served today. The report notes that the biggest reason, you'll be shocked to learn, is the rise in more flexible, less expensive streaming video alternatives. Over the next twelve years, the report predicts that "virtual pay TV" (read: alternative streaming) services will increase their market share from a current level of 4% to around 14%.

Given the rate of growth we've already seen from the likes of DirecTV Now, Sling TV, and other options, that could be an under-estimate. "TDG said early on that the future of TV was an app. Unfortunately, most incumbent MVPDs weren't taking notes," TDG analyst Joel Espelien said in a statement. "The question is no longer if the future of TV is an app, but how quickly and economically incumbents can adapt to this truth and transition to an all-broadband app-based live multi-channel system." Not only were incumbent cable TV providers not "taking notes"; many were repeatedly either pretending the slow rise of cord cutting wasn't important (the idea that these were users cable ops didn't want was a common refrain) or that it wasn't happening at all. They seemed to have conflate the slow but steady pace of the phenomenon with its importance. Granted this doesn't mean traditional TV providers are in all that much trouble. Especially during an era where they've convinced regulators to turn a blind eye to their growing broadband monopolies and the problems with mindless M&As and vertical integration. Many cable providers simply now have to do the unthinkable when it comes to the TV services they offer: actually start competing on price. Of course cable companies have long known the day when TV profit margins tightened would come. That's why they've been rushing to expand Many cable providers simply now have to do the unthinkable when it comes to the TV services they offer:. Of course cable companies have long known the day when TV profit margins tightened would come. That's why they've been rushing to expand arbitrary and unnecessary caps and overage fees on broadband -- which let them both hamstring streaming competitors (zero rating), while cashing in on the shift away from their TV services.







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Most recommended from 21 comments



battleop

join:2005-09-28

00000 8 recommendations battleop Member These "studies" are a joke... Someone was actually paid to come up with this shit? In 13 years no one is going to remember this "study" which will probably be so off base from what will actually happen. In 13 years what we call TV will probably be nothing like what we watch now so it will be more likely that it will drop to 100% as content delivery will be completely different. ISurfTooMuch

join:2007-04-23

Tuscaloosa, AL 3 recommendations ISurfTooMuch Member 2030? I don't think it'll take nearly that long, at the rate things are going. If traditional pay TV still has 60% market share by then, the cable and satellite operators should consider themselves lucky.