Now, in theory, during Summer, you could grow cotton all the way up in the North. But your yields would be very bad; it would not be the optimal crop to grow. My theory is that in Summer, Dorne converts a lot of cropland into non-staple crops such as cotton. They sell it abroad, probably especially to the richer and more industrialized Free Cities across the Narrow Sea, suggesting Dorne probably has a mercantile class. During Winter, Dorne probably converts more land for food production (of course Dorne is probably always a wheat exporter to some degree), resulting in more imports from Essos. Or, rather, results in the Free Cities importing more cotton from the old Valyrian peninsula, or all the way in Southoryos. Probably some homespun cotton production occurs throughout Westeros, and of course as you go further north woolen production and linens should predominate.

But the point is, Dorne is the place that can probably really grow a cash crop. The migration patterns of the Andals and Rhoynar both suggest Dorne is more tied to Essos than elsewhere too. Dorne is extremely defensible too, and is totally riparian, enabling easier urbanization. Across all of these metrics, Dorne seems like the place for industrialization in Westeros… except of course Dornish urbanization is lots of mid-sized cities, not true urban centers like Oldtown or King’s Landing.

Westerosi Social Norms Are Not Hostile to Learning

Individual Westerosi people seem keen to learn and innovate, and stigmas on new ideas do not seem any stronger than in Medieval Europe. Some Essos cultural groups seem hostile to social change, but to be honest I think Westerosi social norms would allow for technological change without too much public revolt. Score this one in favor of an industrial revolution.

Westerosi Scientific Norms Are Hostile to Innovation

The Maesters are a very closed knowledge set, far more closed than Medieval universities were. The printing press does not appear to exist, but even if it did, given the Maesters’ treatment of Sam’s grayscale cure, do we think they’d promote it?

Indeed, the difference between Medieval priests and the Maesters is that Medieval priestly knowledge elites fundamentally did not exist for the purpose of hoarding knowledge. They existed to promote and propagate the church. Hoarding knowledge was ancillary. The church did try to suppress some kinds of learning, but vigorously promoted other kinds, apparently not realizing that if you promote any learning, it will eventually promote all learning. The Maesters, however, exist exclusively to control knowledge. They do not promote any form of popular learning or advancement of note.

The maesters are not the source of innovation, but the barrier to it. They’re never going to allow a rival knowledge source to exist, they’re never going to promote the scientific culture of openness necessary to advancement, and they have no purpose other than ruling the knowledge enterprises of Westeros. Where Westeros has essentially 1 true university, there were 15 medieval universities by 1300, and most had non-priestly curricula, that is, they were training people who weren’t just going to be working for directly university-associated organizations. This is a serious indicator against Westerosi industrialization, and it’s not clear if anywhere else in Westeros is that much better.

Certainly there’s no desire among the maesters to maintain and commercialize practical knowledge: consider the role of wildfire. It could certainly have many military and commercial uses, and yet it seems like practically a lost art.

Private Property Exists and Is Robust

Especially in the cities, we see thriving commercial enterprises. Norms probably vary place to place, but even peasants appear to have no-worse-than-medieval conditions, and Medieval European peasants had substantially stronger property rights than late-Byzantine peasants or Chinese peasants. As a result, we should see this as being an indicator that Westeros may have a good shot at industrialization.

Money Exists and Is Widespread

Barter systems don’t industrialize. ‘nuff said.

Technology Appears Late Medieval or Better

We see a lot of plat armor floating around. Valyrian steel suggests early discovery of crucible steelmaking, but then again we know in our own history isolated cases of steelmaking existed long before industrial mastery in the 1700s. The amount of plate armor on display suggests blacksmithing capacity at least on par with late 1300s or early 1400s Europe.

However, the clothing on display is clearly post-industrial revolution, particularly womens’ dresses. This slideshow highlighting some elite dresses shows 5 examples, not one of which could be produced with pre-industrial European workmanship. Look at Medieval artwork and see the stuff they imagine the very richest people wearing: it is not as precisely crafted as the stuff that is worn in Game of Thrones. Not even close.

Even in textile-rich faces famed for the quality of their pre-industrial garments like Inca-ruled Peru or late-Medieval India, industrialized garment production created a huge upward shift in fabric quality and garment complexity.

My point isn’t that you would never see anything nice worn, but just that (1) characters change outfits far too frequently unless we presume an extraordinary level of wealth not in keeping with the rest of the economy or (2) textile technology is relatively advanced in Westeros. This suggests that somebody has already invented the purl stitch, that relatively advanced cotton gins are widely adopted, and especially that essentially the modern spinning wheel has been invented; it didn’t historically come together until the 1600s. To be honest, the amount of textiles on display in Westeros to me suggests we’ve even got some early-industrial loom technology operating somewhere. But we never see it in the books or the show. One of the only really distinctive textiles discussed is “Myrish lace,” an import from Essos apparently, which lends credibility to the idea that Essos is where this early-industrialization is occurring.

Tellingly, Myr is located just across the narrow see from Dorne, along a river, at a latitude where cotton could grow. Recall that Medieval Europeans were so blown away by cotton textiles that they sometimes traded at prices at or above silk textiles. They called it the “fabric of the air” and sometimes imagined that it was actually a type of ultra-soft wool.

Given the climate factors, the more pro-industrial social environment in the Free Cities, the necessity of some booming textile sector somewhere, and the textual evidence of robust textile imports from Myr (including carpets; my guess is we’re talking cotton Turkish rugs here), I’m gonna go ahead and say the industrial revolution is underway in the Free Cities. Myr has a mercantile elite, is religiously diverse, enjoys access to Dothraki trade networks as well as Westerosi ones, are documented to use crossbows, and are engaged in constant interstate competition across the aptly-named “Disputed Lands.” This is an industrial revolution goldmine. They also are reported to have a large amount of exotic spices of varieties that would not grow in the Myrish climate, so must be imported from further east.

Myr even has basic optics technology and can construct telescopes, i.e. “Myrish eyes.” Jon Snow remarks that the best glass comes from Myr, suggesting an industrial base. Everything adds up: Myr is having an industrial revolution.

What Magic Does

If you have infinite magical potential, there will be no other kind of technological advancement. Insofar as magic is available, it should retard innovation because people don’t need to innovate. Simple enough. Magic does exist in many places.

But Myr is interesting. They have comparatively little magic in evidence, but definitely were exposed to the various powers of the Valyrians afar back in the past. As a likely Rhoynish-descended city, they waged a long war with the Valyrians, and held them off for a time without dragons, which suggests they compensated for magic with technology. Somewhere in the Myrish past probably lies Rhoynish technological competition, perhaps giving rise to a fairly durable culture of innovation still alive in Myr.

So why doesn’t Myr have a full industrial economy? Several reasons come to mind. First, Dothraki hordes impose heavy tributes and limit access to resource-rich hinterlands. Yes, profitable trade occurs as well, but this siphons off a substantial share of the capital surplus each year.

Next, Myr has inherited the Valyrian slave culture. There is a rich debate about whether slavery retards or facilitates industrialization, but I believe slavery retards it. A recent paper (as in, today) in NBER argues that even the developmental benefits of industrialization may be due to human capital formation as much as the raw machinery. Slavery requires a large amount of human capital be dedicated towards control of the slave population, and locks up much of the human potential in a non-innovative class; i.e. a class that can’t enjoy the fruits of innovation so is less likely to undertake it.

It may be that Myr’s 75% slave population forces the elites to invest heavily in avoiding civil disturbance by allowing only discrete process innovations, most people can’t enjoy the fruits of proto-industrialism, and the Dothraki siphon off what surpluses do accrue.

Conclusion

So why hasn’t Planetos had an industrial revolution? It’s hard to say and varies place by place. In some places, it may be due to the Maesters hoarding knowledge. In others, a slave society makes labor innovation less profitable and encourages a degree of societal rigidity. In others, tributary dynamics are at work. In others, it may be the effect of uncompetitive politics. The truth is, technological advancement on Earth came in uneven fits and starts and was far from linear. Long periods of technological stability in a given geography are possible, even probable. The more interesting question is a hypothetical about where an industrial revolution could begin.

The Free Cities are obvious candidates for an industrial revolution, especially Myr and Bravos. And whatever begins there would probably spread to Dorne and to King’s Landing. What that means for the Westerosi balance of power, I leave to the reader.

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I’m a native of Wilmore, Kentucky, a graduate of Transylvania University, and also the George Washington University’s Elliott School. My real job is as an economist at USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, where I analyze and forecast cotton market conditions. I’m married to a kickass Kentucky woman named Ruth.

My posts are not endorsed by and do not in any way represent the opinions of the United States government or any branch, department, agency, or division of it. My writing represents exclusively my own opinions. I did not receive any financial support or remuneration from any party for this research.