Italy's leadership, including Matteo Salvini, has been in a showdown with Brussels over the country's budget | Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images Brussels to propose disciplining Italy on November 21 Targeting debt instead of deficit moves up timeline on potential sanctions.

ROME — The European Commission will propose disciplining Italy under EU fiscal rules on November 21 — unless the country's government agrees to change its draft budget plan.

By basing its recommendations on the Italy's enormous debt, rather than its proposed budget deficit for 2019, the Commission will be able to start the potentially punitive proceedings far earlier than expected, according to three people involved in the talks in Rome and Brussels.

If the recommendation to start a so-called excessive deficit procedure (EDP) is approved by the Council of the EU in December, Italy could face large fines ahead of next year's European Parliament election. That would dramatically escalate the showdown over the budget between Brussels and the populist government in Rome.

The EU's EDP is a corrective action to bring down a member country's excessive deficit or debt to "safe levels." Persistent failure to take adequate action can culminate in fines of up to 0.5 percent of its GDP — or €9 billion.

EU rules mandate that member countries keep their budget deficit below 3 percent of GDP and that their public debt does not exceed 60 percent of GDP. Though Italy's planned 2.4 percent budget deficit for 2019 is well within the EU's guidelines although much higher than previously planned, its public debt currently stands at 132 percent of GDP.

EU finance ministers will discuss Italy's budget at a Eurogroup meeting on Monday in Brussels.

Rome has so far managed to avoid sanctions for its debt because the Commission has repeatedly ruled — most recently in May — that its budget objectives are "broadly compliant" with the EU's fiscal requirements.

The draft budget, combined with slowing economic growth, changes that calculus, according to two officials in Brussels. This has prompted the Commission to review its stance later this month.

Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria was informed of the Commission's decision to bring forward from May 2019 its next deficit procedure report last week and was asked to provide a description of the so-called relevant factors the Commission should consider when making its new assessments, two people involved in the talks said.

In the past, the Commission has accepted Italy's reasoning when considering whether to launch an (EDP).

According to one government official in Rome, "it's clear to us that this time it will be different, and the European Commission won't agree with the factors we consider relevant. Therefore, it will go ahead and suggest the EDP."

The Italian Treasury, government, and the Commission declined to comment on the record.

EU finance ministers will discuss Italy's budget at a Eurogroup meeting on Monday in Brussels.

Tria is expected to try to convince the eurozone's other finance ministers that "the government's budget plan isn't as crazy as it has come to sound, and there's really nothing to worry about because the actual deficit for next year won't be 2.4 percent but lower because we won't give the planned measures full implementation at once," according to one person in Rome briefed on the meeting.

The Commission will publish its economic forecasts for eurozone countries on Thursday, and Rome has until November 13 to rework its budget draft as requested by Brussels.

"These are three important stages in the ongoing discussion with Rome," said a second Italian official in Brussels. "We really hope our positions will somehow converge but at this point, we're also being realistic and we know the chances are vain."

That's one area where Rome and Brussels are likely to be in agreement, according to an EU diplomat.

"An excessive debt procedure is very likely if they don't redraft the budget by November 13," the diplomat said.