On Thursday night, a French police officer was fatally shot on Paris’s Champs-Élysées, with the Islamic State taking responsibility for the killing. How did Donald Trump respond? With a tweet suggesting the people of France will view the event as a sign that the only person who can protect them when they go to the polls on Sundayis far-right presidential candidate and crypto-fascist Marine Le Pen:

Like Trump, Le Pen’s campaign was defined by vehemently anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric. She's vowed to renegotiate France's position in the European Union (full withdrawal would be easier said than done, given that France’s membership in the E.U. is codified in its constitution) at a time when far-right populism, fueled in part by the Syrian refugee crisis, is sweeping the continent. At a superficial level, then, Thursday’s terror attack would seem to boost Le Pen as The Washington Post notes:

As the candidates vowed to suspend campaign events to honor the fallen officer, analysts were quick to say that the shooting, in a country that has suffered a string of devastating terrorist attacks in the past two years, was particularly advantageous for the right-wing, anti-immigrant presidential contenders—especially Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front who has been sharply critical of “Islamist terrorism” for weeks.

Despite a promise not to campaign, Le Pen spoke on Friday morning, calling on the French government to immediately reinstate border checks and expel foreigners being monitored by the intelligence services.

At the same time, it’s not totally clear in which direction voters will lean. Although political violence and urban unrest allowed Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of the nationalist National Front, to garner enough votes to make it to the second and final round of the 2002 election before eventually losing by a landslide, a 2012 terrorist attack on a Jewish school just before the election “did not swing the polls in favor of conservative Nicolas Sarkozy, then the incumbent, hard-line president with a reputation for being tough on crime.” Instead, it was won by socialist François Hollande. Marine Le Pen is also up against far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who also has indicated a willingness to leave the E.U., as well as NATO, the I.M.F., and the World Trade Organization, to boot. So there’s plenty of crazy to go around.

Axios’s Steve LeVine predicts “a better than 50-50 chance” LePen wins “partly based on the rule of threes following the upset victories for Trump and Brexit.” If past is prologue, France’s woes have just begun.