CNN's Meanwhile in America, the daily email about US politics for global readers. This was originally published in the November 4 edition of, the daily email about US politics for global readers. Sign up here to receive it every weekday morning.

(CNN) By this time next year, we'll know whether President Donald Trump was a fluke or not.

Today is one year out from the vote count that will be a pivot point in history, no matter how it goes. Will Americans validate the rule-breaking and fact-bending Trump presidency that scorns the post-World War II international system? Or will they return the world's most powerful nation -- at least for now -- to a more traditional path?

History suggests that Trump's low approval ratings spell doom for a second term. He is also nearly certain to be impeached by the Democrat-majority House.

But even if the House votes to impeach, the Republican-led Senate will likely keep him in office, and the strong economy is a good sign for any incumbent. Meanwhile, Trump is shrewdly turning his unchained behavior into a "No Mr. Nice Guy..." election pitch that loyalists will adore.

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