The 2016 Blue Jays were not quite as dynamic offensively as the team that finished 2015 within flipping distance of the World Series. Unless something dramatic changes, the club’s slightly downward trend looks to continue into 2017.

That observation isn’t simply a reflection of the wins and losses. The ’16 Jays posted a solid, wild-card-worthy 89 regular-season wins (tied with the Orioles), hosted the play-in game and advanced to the AL championship series. Compare that to their division-best 93 victories the year before. It seems close, but not really.

The 2015 Jays squad, as we all remember, was given its roaring, pulsating late-season engine at the trade deadline in July by adding ace lefty David Price, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, leadoff man Ben Revere and solid bullpen arms in LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe. They took off from that point, going 43-18 down the stretch.

On the other hand, the 2016 Jays were constructed from day one to defend a division title and return to the playoffs, solid in the starting rotation but with no single lightning-rod pitching touchstone and less firepower than a year earlier. This past season, the Jays posted 89 wins with 759 runs scored and 666 allowed. A year earlier, they scored 132 more runs while posting a 37-12 record in blowout games. This year, they were 29-15 in games decided by five runs or more.

It’s not just the fact that in ’15 the Jays advanced one game further — just two wins away from the World Series before dropping Game 6 of the ALCS to the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, while a year later they were eliminated Game 5 of the ALCS by the Indians.

You don’t need analytics to see which team had better World Series potential. The inescapable fact is that the 2016 post-season edition, assembled by president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, was not as explosive as the club that had stormed to the franchise’s first division title in 22 years. This past season’s Jays were built for the regular-season grind, not a sprint to the championship.

The following is a ranking of various areas of the ’16 Jays:

1. Starting rotation

Oddly, emerging from spring training the rotation had been the biggest question mark. Lefty J.A. Happ had re-signed as a free agent and was ostensibly replacing the departed Price, but with just one solid half-season in Pittsburgh as encouragement. After a breakout 2015, righty Marco Estrada experienced back pain most of the spring and was a question mark. Aaron Sanchez had won the fifth starter’s role but was on an innings limit, likely headed back to the bullpen down the stretch. Young right-hander Marcus Stroman had great stuff, but missed almost the entire 2015 season after a devastating knee injury, returning as a key in October. The one sure prediction, it seemed, was 200 innings from knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

Of course, the end result for the starters was sublime. Happ recorded 20 wins for the first time. Sanchez was the AL ERA leader, totalling close to 220 innings. Estrada pitched through back issues with a fastball/changeup combination that was devastating. Atkins added lefty Francisco Liriano at the deadline and he was reunited with former Bucs catcher Russell Martin with solid results.

Dickey was on pace for 200 innings, but was shut down because of the five other solid starting options. The biggest disappointment was Stroman, the opening day starter who won nine games with a 1.289 WHIP and is still sorting out his vast repertoire. But he is only 26 and, along with Sanchez, a big part of the future.

2. Corner infield/DH

Third baseman Josh Donaldson finished in the top five in the MVP race again, after winning in 2015. First baseman/DH Edwin Encarnacion drove in 127 runs to lead the AL, and homered 42 times. Switch-hitting Justin Smoak was a big disappointment, signing a two-year deal just after the all-star break and then disappearing offensively in the second half. Forgotten is the loss of PED-suspended Chris Colabello as a right-handed option to Smoak. Encarnacion became an everyday first baseman, with DH passed around to players needing rest.

3. Middle infield

When he’s healthy, Devon Travis is a solid major-league second baseman working on improving defence. But then again, when is he ever healthy? Shortstop Tulowitzki has yet to show the breadth of the offensive skills that marked his years in Colorado, but his gliding, on-the-run, one-step-ahead defence is perhaps worth the price of admission. Maybe 2017 will be the year the Jays’ true clubhouse leader also becomes the team’s MVP. That would be huge.

The Jays were woefully shy of left-handed bats in 2016, a constant source of frustration for manager John Gibbons. At spring training it was believed that returning second baseman Ryan Goins, a lefty swinger, could help balance the bottom of the order with a line-drive bat, but he was a disappointment and sent to Triple-A. He is young enough to still become a factor off the bench.

4. Catcher

By the time September arrived, workhorse backstop Martin had seemingly hit a wall. He received a competitive adrenaline boost in October, but the Jays must still find a solid backup to make sure the 34-year-old Montrealer has gas in the tank should they reach the playoffs for a third straight year.

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“It’s not that I was hurt catching; it was that I was catching hurt,” Martin said in a quiet clubhouse after the Jays lost Game 5 to the Indians. From Aug. 24 to the end of the regular season, Martin batted .133 with six homers and 20 RBIs. He has made the post-season for six straight years with the Yankees, Pirates and Jays.

5. Outfield

What had been a strength in 2015 ended up as a weakness, even moreso heading into the new year with career backup Ezequiel Carrera and the head-scratching Melvin Upton Jr. currently in starting roles. Jose Bautista was his usual disciplined plate presence, but injuries continued to be a concern and he is no longer is even an average defender. Canadian left fielder Michael Saunders was voted in by fans as an all-star addition in July, but followed that highlight up by struggling in the second half, finishing in a platoon role with Upton. After missed most of 2015 with a left knee injury, he had trouble defensively. Now both Bautista and Saunders are free agents. The Jays stand to lose 32.9 per cent of their 2016 plate appearances here.

6. Bullpen

Only closer Roberto Osuna, Rule 5 pickup Joe Biagini and 39-year-old setup man Jason Grilli were reliable performers. Expected to be a strength back in April, the ’pen went 23-32 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.267 WHIP, contributing to a 21-25 mark in one-run games.

The two biggest relief disappointments were prior to the arrival of Grilli from the Braves on May 31. Righty Drew Storen was expected to compete for the ninth-inning role, but ended up not being trusted and was dealt to the Mariners for Joaquin Benoit. Lefty Brett Cecil entered the regular season not having allowed an earned run since the previous June, but struggled early until righting the ship just in time to earn a four-year, $30.5-million free-agent deal from the Cardinals.

7. Bench

The difference in payroll between the biggest spenders and mid-range teams such as the Jays means that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs can live large with their regulars and still spend major-league starter money on the bench, giving them reasonable fill-ins if a key piece is missing for a month or more. It’s not the top 12, it’s the bottom 13 that can make the difference. The Jays’ top six off the bench were Smoak, Carrera, Darwin Barney, Goins, Upton and Josh Thole. Their bench players combined to hit .201 with 34 homers and 120 RBIs in 1,555 at-bats. Any future spending is going to the frontlines, so the bench will continue to be what it is.

Looking ahead

If the Jays felt they could only offer free-agent outfielder Dexter Fowler $15 million per season, only to lose out when the Cardinals bid more, then it seems logical that they would have to clear payroll with a trade to bring back one of their own more expensive free-agent sluggers as a replacement. If it’s Encarnacion, the logical choice would be to deal Smoak since they have already added Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce. But to find a Smoak-taker, aye, there’s the rub.

In any case, they did not land Fowler, and Bautista and Encarnacion are longshots, so they have that money to spend. They still need a lefty-hitting everyday corner outfielder, a backup catcher who can start 40-plus games and at least three veteran relief pitchers manager John Gibbons can trust in the seventh inning.

So, the Jays have taken a step backward after another step back between 2015 and 2016. That’s not the recipe for a hat trick of October baseball. Tickets are already sold for 2017, but this is a narrow ledge the Jays are on. Fans are getting used to the post-season. There’s much to be done to maintain viewership and loyalty into the future in this winter of fan discontent.

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