Few people are shopping at the Beijing Yintai Centre, a high-end mall in the Chinese capital’s central business district. Store clerks say foot traffic has been low, even when holiday discounts were offered. Office workers walk past empty shops like Hermes, Dolce & Gabbana and Cartier, eating fruit they have brought for lunch.

Li Xin, 33, who works for a security company nearby, likes to check out the selection of handbags. Her favourites are Chanel and Tom Ford. But recently, she has decided to cut back. “This year I didn’t buy any new bags, because everyone has been saying: ‘Winter is coming’,” she said.

For the many businesses that depend on the spending power of China’s middle class, winter has already arrived. After decades of breakneck growth, the world’s second largest economy is slowing down, and Chinese consumers are feeling the pinch.

As their country goes into what could be its slowest year of growth in decades, just above 6%, Chinese residents face rising living costs and debt, stagnating wages and worries about job security.

Many have seen their savings wiped out in peer-to-peer lending scams, as Chinese stocks reached new lows last year, and as the property market, the largest store of household wealth in China, declined.

As a result, Chinese shoppers are abandoning iPhones for cheaper Chinese-made smartphones, buying fewer Swiss watches and travelling less. Many couples have decided against having a second child because of the cost. The term “consumption downgrade” has become popular online, as netizens swap advice about how to save money.

China’s slowdown is the result of a government campaign to rein in excessive debt and calm property prices. “Then came the trade war, which hasn’t had a huge direct effect on the economy, but has eliminated the sense of certainty and stability central to business and consumer confidence,” said Scott Kennedy of CSIS in Washington.

What Chinese consumers can and cannot spend matters. Domestic consumption accounted for a little more than three-quarters of economic growth last year. As manufacturing and trade are hit by the US tariffs, the country’s policymakers are looking to its citizens to offset those losses.

“Consumer spending plays a very important role. If it falls, the impact on the economy will be large,” said Ye Tan, an independent economist and analyst based in Shanghai. In theory, spending begets more spending as companies take more orders, produce more, and workers go home with more money in their pockets, according to Ye.

“The whole process forms a virtuous cycle and people will have more confidence,” she said. “Confidence is really important.”

Yet confidence is thin on the ground. The core areas of Chinese consumption – property, durable goods such as electronics, and cars – have all seen sharp declines over the past year.

Last year, car sales contracted in China, the world’s largest auto market, for the first time since 1990. Retail sales in November grew at their weakest rate in 15 years. And at least one in five apartments in China are empty, according to Gan Li, a professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu.

‘The Chinese consumer should be the most obvious candidate to pick up the slack … but retail and services appear to be following manufacturing down the rabbit hole.’ Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

International companies that rely on Chinese shoppers have begun to sound the alarm. Apple issued its first profit warning since 2002 on the back of slowing demand in China. Ermenegildo Zegna said it would be holding back store expansion in the country, one of its largest markets, because of the expected downturn.

“There is a need for some other sector to step up and provide leadership of the economy. The much hyped Chinese consumer should be the most obvious candidate to do so, but rather than pick up the slack, retail and services appear to be following manufacturing down the rabbit hole,” said Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book International.

The government is trying to restore confidence by cutting individual taxes and lowering mortgage requirements. In the northern province of Hebei, the government has proposed a four-day working week to encourage spending. City officials in Beijing are asking retailers to stay open for longer to foster a “night economy”.

Property developers have slashed prices, while electronics retailers have begun offering discounts on iPhones. Economists say these measures will take time to have any meaningful impact and some analysts expect further stimulus measures to boost the economy. Others say the structural problems in the Chinese economy cannot be fixed so easily. “Turning on the credit spigots alone won’t fix the problem,” said Kennedy.

On a Friday afternoon, the Apple store in the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing is full, while a nearby store selling Huawei phones sits mostly empty. A worker at the Genius Bar says the store is usually even busier that today. Another store clerk says that while traffic is as much as it usually is, there is not the same clamour for new iPhones. When the latest model came out in October, there was no queue outside the store.

Some argue that the idea of a “consumption downgrade” is overblown and that falling iPhone sales are no barometer of the broader economy. “Apple has been losing relevance in the Chinese market for a variety of reasons in recent years. The brand no longer excites Chinese consumers,” said Pan Yiling, senior editor of Jing Daily, which focuses on the Chinese luxury market.

Pan says China’s middle class consumers are becoming more strategic. Those who enjoy luxury brands are cutting back on impulsive purchases and choosing more carefully.

Lu Wei, 28, who works in a radio station in Beijing, decided to opt for a fake Louis Vuitton bag to add to her collection. It cost her about 900 yuan (£103), which she says is about 10 times less than the real version. “I suddenly realised that I am no longer young. I have to save some money.”

China’s wealthier middle class will remain less affected by the downturn. A lawyer in the Yintai Centre, who give only her surname, Hu, brings her one-year old son here to a play and learning centre that costs 388 yuan (£45) per visit. Hu and her husband have been thinking about ways to cut back, for instance on their annual international trips. One concession Hu has made is to shop more on the e-commerce platform, Taobao, something she used to find embarrassing before.

“Being brainwashed by consumerism is not a wise option for ordinary people like us,” she said. “Trying to get the best products with less money is not something to be ashamed of.”

Additional reporting by Wang Xueying