Theresa May has issued a final plea to Conservative Brexit rebels not to undermine her negotiating clout with Brussels by voting against the government on the EU withdrawal bill as it returns to the House of Commons on Tuesday.



The prime minister faces a knife-edge result on an amendment to give parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal as Tory remainers threatened to support the change, brought in by peers, and Labour rallied all but its most pro-Brexit MPs behind it.

Several leading Tory rebels told the Guardian they were not yet satisfied with the changes proposed by ministers on the meaningful vote, despite senior government figures saying they were confident of getting them through.

However, a damaging potential government defeat over the customs union was averted after Downing Street sources said they would back an alternative amendment on the proposal for “a” customs union, tabled by backbenchers Nicky Morgan, a remainer, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, a leading Brexiter.



The controversial issue, which has threatened to divide the Tory party, has now been kicked down the road until two trade bills, which contain amendments that would keep the UK’s current customs arrangements with the EU, return to the Commons in July. One Tory MP warned that the “big battle” was yet to come.

The prime minister told Tory MPs at a meeting of the backbench 1922 Committee, attended by ministers including chancellor Philip Hammond and Brexit secretary David Davis, that defeats over the Brexit bill would undermine her negotiating position with Brussels.

“We must think about the message parliament will send to the European Union this week. I am trying to negotiate the best deal for Britain,” she told the packed room.

“I am confident I can get a deal that allows us to strike our own trade deals while having a border with the EU which is as frictionless as possible. But if the Lords amendments are allowed to stand, that negotiating position will be undermined.”

After the meeting, solicitor general Robert Buckland appealed for party unity. “There’s ongoing work happening and I think it’s emblematic, actually, of a real sense of common purpose in the party that we all hang together or we all hang separately,” he said.

The House of Lords sent 15 amendments to the EU withdrawal bill back to MPs, one of which the government has accepted while offering compromises on three others. Downing Street insiders believe they can see off defeats on the rest, although they hinted that talks were ongoing on the meaningful vote.

The meaningful vote amendment would put the decision on what to do if the government’s final divorce deal was rejected by MPs into the hands of the Commons. It aims to avoid MPs facing a choice between the government’s deal or no deal, but Brexiters fear it could lead to a second referendum. Ministers have offered a promise to make a statement to the Commons, rather than an actual vote.

Labour whips believe they have convinced all but the most hardline of their Brexit-backing MPs to support the amendment, increasing the chances that the government will be defeated. In December, Jeremy Corbyn intervened personally to persuade Brexiters including Dennis Skinner to back the original Dominic Grieve amendment, which the Lords has sought to strengthen.

Grieve, who led the charge on the meaningful vote last December, confirmed that he had tabled a compromise amendment ahead of today’s debate.

He told BBC Newsnight that the meaningful vote remained “an issue of difficulty” but that his proposal had the capacity to “bridge the gap” between different wings of the party and may even be acceptable to the government.

However, he warned that if ministers failed to accept his amendment, which included more detail on what the government should do in the event of no deal, he would vote against the prime minister on the issue.

Several of the leading Tory remainers who helped inflict May’s only Commons defeat on Brexit, when they backed a legal guarantee of a vote on the final deal in December, insisted their support should not be taken for granted.

Former chancellor Ken Clarke told the Guardian he remained determined to back the meaningful vote amendment. “It will mean that parliament will have a decisive say on the broad nature of the final deal, and without it, parliament will be marginalised,” he said.

He pointed to last week’s standoff between May and her pro-leave Brexit secretary, David Davis, as evidence that Downing Street risks being pushed around by the Brexiters.

“Without our involvement, the government will face the same situation it faced last week, when the final agreement comes round, because the Brexiters will give threats and briefings against any deal unless they’re satisfied with it. They will have a veto, and parliament will have no effective control.”

Jonathan Djanogly, the Conservative MP for Huntingdon, said: “There remain serious issues to be debated and the government line that the rebels have been silenced or placated is simply not true.”



Sarah Wollaston, MP for Totnes and chair of the Commons health select committee, said she was “minded” to support the Lords amendment on giving parliament a meaningful vote on the exit deal, and called for “further concessions” on the customs union.

“We would like to see further concessions on the amendment on the customs union because it is just a very sensible amendment that says keep it on the table, don’t completely rule it out,” she told the BBC.

At least two more Tory remainers told the Guardian they were planning to rebel against the government again, despite whips warning that it could be counterproductive ahead of the key Brussels summit later this month.

One said that the updated amendment tabled by ministers on the meaningful vote went some long way towards addressing concerns but warned the issue was still “exercising a lot of people”, in particular over what might follow if the government failed to get a deal at all.

The Tory MP added: “If there are no more changes I think the rebellion will be quite big. Most people are very firm. Any defeat suffered by a government is never helpful and clearly there is a European council but I think there is a heavy element of normal whips’ tactics there, which I don’t think people will be that susceptible to.”

Another potential rebel said it would be “pathetic” if parliament was bought off with the promise of a statement after 28 days. “The statement may say we’re leaving without a deal, and it might say: ‘get lost.’”

The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, urged Tory rebels to stay the course, saying the next few days would be the most important week for Brexit since the triggering of article 50.

“After months of dithering, delay and government splits, there is a chance for parliament decisively to shape the course of the negotiations,” he wrote in the Guardian. “A chance for parliament to have its voice heard. We must get it right.”

Starmer dismissed government concession on the issue, saying it would, “turn the meaningful vote into a meaningless vote”, and was “not good enough.”

Meanwhile, the EU said that May’s customs plan would create a hard border in Ireland, carrying “serious risks of fraud”, lack of governance and controls of standards.

In 11 pages of slides comparing the May and EU proposals for the Irish border, the European commission said “key questions [are] unanswered”; and that May’s plan “does not cover regulatory controls, leading to a hard border”.



On tariffs, the EU said there would be issues with collection and allocation of revenue and the definition of the origin of products under strict rules of origin protocols.

On VAT it said the UK plan would lead to “piecemeal application” of the rules and post “serious risks of fraud” on a significant source of revenue for member states.

