West Michigan’s Kent County may be the most important presidential battleground in the 2020 election.

The county was once a reliable stronghold for the Republican Party but has become more politically competitive as Democrats begin to make gains in suburbs surrounding Grand Rapids. That’s why NBC News and “Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd is embedding political reporters in Kent County -- to cover the area’s “transformation” and hear from voters who may decide the next election.

“I’m obsessed with it,” Todd told MLive.com. “If I were on a desert island and I’m told I’m only going to get results from one county in America, I might pick Kent over every other county.”

Republicans secured Kent County in nearly every presidential race during the last 50 years, but recent elections suggest the area is becoming more winnable for Democrats.

“Kent is fertile ground for us,” said Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes.

Former President Barack Obama was the first Democratic nominee to win there since 1968, narrowly prevailing over John McCain by 0.5 percentage points -- only 1,500 votes. Four years later, GOP nominee Mitt Romney took Kent County back by a nearly 8-point margin.

President Donald Trump chose to end his campaign in Kent County on the eve of 2016′s election, possibly signaling a last-minute push was needed to ensure the win. Trump underperformed compared to Romney, winning by 3 points.

It’s a remarkable change since George W. Bush won Kent County by 21 points in 2000. Trump earned the fewest votes of any Republican since Bob Dole in 1996.

Kent County Democrats expanded on their gains in 2018.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county in decades. U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, narrowly fended off GOP nominee John James after losing Kent County in the previous election.

The Michigan Democratic Party is paying close attention to what it considers a burgeoning Democratic base in suburban areas like Wyoming and Kentwood. Adding larger Democratic margins in the suburbs to the base in Grand Rapids, a reliably blue city, could be enough to swing Kent County.

“What we’re finding is as the community is growing, as people move outside of the city and into the suburban areas, they’re taking their votes with them,” Barnes said.

Republicans aren’t going to cede the area without a fight. Surrounding West Michigan counties were solidly-red in 2016 and 2018.

Trump returned to Kent County this year for his first Michigan rally of the 2020 election cycle. Police estimated 15,000 people visited downtown Grand Rapids in March, the largest Michigan crowd any candidate has marshaled in the election cycle.

Todd said Kent Counties reflects the demographic and cultural challenges facing both political parties in swing states. He’s interested in whether Trump is leaving behind moderate Republicans.

“I’d be shocked if the winner of Kent County didn’t carry the state,” Todd said. “I don’t know if they’re ready to become permanent members of the Democratic coalition.”

Todd cited two political figures as emblematic of the interesting political dynamics in West Michigan -- Former Republican President Gerald Ford and the once-Republican pariah U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, I-Cascade Township.

“If there were to be an avatar for the ‘never-Trumpers,' I think it’s Gerald Ford," Todd said. So I think when you see what’s happening to the Republican Party right now and where it’s headed, where Gerald Ford’s home goes ... are those voters going to leave the Republican Party? Then you add the symbolism of Justin Amash leaving the party and you understand why we believe Kent County is a tentpole of our coverage."

John Sellek, CEO of Harbor Strategic Public Affairs and veteran campaign strategist for Republicans like former Attorney General Bill Schuette, said NBC is right to keep an eye on Kent County, but not for its connection to Ford.

“In fact, it is West Michigan’s cultural conservatism that has held it closer to Republicans when similar economically successful places like Oakland and Western Wayne Counties flipped many local and state legislative seats to the Democrats,” Sellek said. “But that is changing in Kent, evidenced by both Gretchen Whitmer’s win and the president’s repeat visits there. Kent is a new battleground but one in which Republicans there still have a lot to work with going into 2020.”

Donald Zinman, a political science professor at Grand Valley State University, also said conservatism is somewhat built-in to the area’s character.

“Kent County has a lot of Christian conservatives,” Zinman said. “There’s just going to be some of those people that a Democrat just can’t win.”

NBC News is dispatching reporters in four other swing states -- Milwaukee County, Wisconsin; Beaver County, Pennsylvania; Miami-Dade County, Florida; and Maricopa County, Arizona. Reporters are looking to build long-term relationships with more than a dozen voters as the presidential race unfolds.

Michigan, which Trump won by a slim 10,704-vote margin in 2016, is home to several swing counties that reflect the upcoming battle in suburban communities.

Todd said Kent may be the most unpredictable county, saying Macomb appears to be strongly behind Trump while Oakland looks more controlled by Democrats.

NBC reporters are particularly interested in what college-educated white male voters will do in the general election. College-educated white women are voting more Democratic, while white voters with no college degree, particularly men, make up Trump’s base.

It will probably depend on who Democrats choose to be their nominee. Todd said moderates have a better chance of appealing to white-college educated voters.

“They don’t like Trump, but they haven’t left the Republican Party yet,” Todd said.

Zinman said East Grand Rapids is a particular example of an affluent, white, college-education population that has shifted away from the Republican Party. The city just ousted its incumbent mayor during its November election.

Demographic changes in Kent County are also driving some of the political realignment, Zinman said.

“I think you’re seeing some areas all over the country, not just cities, but suburbs that are becoming more diverse and more democratic, just just as rural communities are becoming more Republican,” Zinman said. "Certainly in Grand Rapids, there is a growing population of Latinos, of immigrants from Arab countries and African countries.

West Michigan and Kent County will also be a key battleground in the Democratic primary, said David Dulio, head of the political science department at Oakland University.

Democratic candidates are spending more time on early primary states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina after campaigning in Michigan last summer. Dulio said it’s not clear which Democratic candidate has the best chance to win West Michigan.

“That county is becoming more Democratic, but I don’t know beyond that what those Democrats are like,” Dulio said.

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