THE MANNIFESTO: APPENDIX I, CHAPTER VI

There is more to Tycho Nestoris than meets the eye. He has traveled farther and done much more than what seems to appear in the books. In particular, he is a crafty intelligence-gatherer and a keen investor.

This is the first of several essays that delve into Tycho’s secrets. In this essay, I focus on his travels in A Dance with Dragons, with an eye on proving Tycho’s capacity for both intelligence-gathering and his capacity to insure a reliable return on investment. In some ways, this essay is a proof of concept for subsequent entries that will explore these ideas in more depth.

Returning to the topic at hand, we can reason out some startling conclusions about Tycho from seemingly trivial details. In particular, I want to establish a few major points:

Tycho Nestoris (or his agent) sought Davos out, following him to White Harbor… to the point that both men were in the same winesink at the same time.



After Davos’s arrest and subsequent “death”, Tycho sailed for Eastwatch and Stannis, to secure contractual agreements to repay debts, as well as provide military intelligence.

In addition, Tycho may very well have set up a tentative agreement between Stannis and a former partner, repaying debts and insuring future incomes.

Contents

* * *

THE INFORMANT

The way to prove that Tycho was in White Harbor begins first by showing that he has knowledge that could only have come from there.

For a start, we begin with something Stannis utters in Theon’s sample chapter:

“Wyman Manderly.” The king’s mouth twisted in contempt. “Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell. Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton. I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over. And the Freys… has the Red Wedding been forgotten?”

— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

So Stannis has been informed of Davos’s “death”. But there’s a subtle issue here:

Who informed Stannis of this? Who told the king of Davos’s fate?

Some observations:

Clearly Stannis was not aware of this prior to leaving for Deepwood Motte , since Davos’s false execution was conducted after Stannis left. Thus he must have learned it at some point along his marches toward Deepwood or Winterfell.

, since Davos’s false execution was conducted after Stannis left. Thus he must have learned it at some point along his marches toward Deepwood or Winterfell. Stannis could not have learned it from Asha or anyone else at Deepwood, the only two letters she received prior to her capture were from Stannis and Ramsay:

The last message sent to Deepwood had been from Stannis Baratheon, demanding homage. This was worse. “The northmen have taken Moat Cailin.”

“The Bastard of Bolton?” asked Qarl, beside her.

“Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell, he signs himself.

— THE WAYWARD BRIDE, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Thus Stannis could have only learned about Davos’s fate after Deepwood Motte was liberated.

was liberated. Given that Stannis does not have access to raven messaging during his march to Winterfell, and the fact that his army does not seem to encounter any wandering northerners… the only way Stannis could have learned about Davos is if: A message with this information was sent to Stannis while he lingered at Deepwood, or… Someone told Stannis in person. This person must have been in a position to have learned about Davos and subsequently met up with Stannis while he marched towards Winterfell.



There are only two people meeting this criteria:

Arnolf Karstark. It’s clear that Stannis was communicating with Karstark while at Deepwood Motte: how else could Stannis have summoned Karstark during the march? It’s possible that Arnolf told Stannis at that point. Arnolf also could have told the king after meeting up with Stannis at the crofter’s village.

It’s clear that Stannis was communicating with Karstark while at Deepwood Motte: how else could Stannis have summoned Karstark during the march? It’s possible that Arnolf told Stannis at that point. Arnolf also could have told the king after meeting up with Stannis at the crofter’s village. Tycho Nestoris. The Braavosi banker was in Eastwatch and could have heard about Davos there. In any case, he certainly meets the requirement of having caught up with Stannis during the march to Winterfell.

The Braavosi banker was in Eastwatch and could have heard about Davos there. In any case, he certainly meets the requirement of having caught up with Stannis during the march to Winterfell. A distant third candidate would be Mors Crowfood, because he too was summoned by Stannis after the liberation of Deepwood and thus meets the above criteria. However, I discount this possibility on the basis that Mors is land-locked a significant distance from White Harbor and possesses an infinitesimal population. It’s extremely unlikely that he has learned about Davos. Second, we know that most contact between Stannis and Mors Umber was conducted not via raven but envoy, such as when Horpe and Massey visited Crowfood in JON II – ADWD.

* * *

Which Candidate?

So between Arnolf and Tycho, who is the most likely to have told Stannis?

Before I tell you the answer, let’s provide some evidence and reasoning.

We already know that Arnolf Karstark provided Stannis with misleading intelligence. In the Theon sample chapter, Stannis appears to wholly believe that Davos is dead. But at the same time, Stannis also knows that Arnolf meant to betray him. Subsequently it’s entirely illogical to insist that Stannis trust any intelligence from Arnolf, to include any word about Davos’s fate.

In the Theon sample chapter, Stannis appears to wholly believe that Davos is dead. But at the same time, Stannis also knows that Arnolf meant to betray him. Subsequently it’s entirely illogical to insist that Stannis trust any intelligence from Arnolf, to include any word about Davos’s fate. Compare that to Tycho Nestoris, who has already demonstrated an ability to provide Stannis with reliable intelligence. Tycho told Stannis about the death of Aenys Frey, a fact later confirmed by Theon. Furthermore, Tycho has also demonstrated a tangible, financial interest in Stannis through the contract established in THEON I – TWOW. His word is infinitely more trustworthy, since the Iron Bank has an incentive to see Stannis succeed.

Tycho told Stannis about the death of Aenys Frey, a fact later confirmed by Theon. Furthermore, Tycho has also demonstrated a tangible, financial interest in Stannis through the contract established in THEON I – TWOW. His word is infinitely more trustworthy, since the Iron Bank has an incentive to see Stannis succeed. Stannis was keeping Arnolf at arm’s length. As I show in other essays (such as Subverting Betrayal), Stannis already distrusted Arnolf and appears to have been avoiding the castellan. This suggests that Arnolf did not have an opportunity to tell Stannis, even if he did know.

As I show in other essays (such as Subverting Betrayal), Stannis already distrusted Arnolf and appears to have been avoiding the castellan. This suggests that Arnolf did not have an opportunity to tell Stannis, even if he did know. Arnolf already provided Stannis with an explanation of Davos’s likely fate:

“If is a word for fools. We have had no word from Davos. It may be he never reached White Harbor. Arnolf Karstark writes that the storms have been fierce upon the narrow sea. Be that as it may. I have no time to grieve, nor wait upon the whims of Lord Too-Fat. I must consider White Harbor lost to me.”

— JON IV, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Arnolf was most likely waiting at the Dreadfort (traveled to the crofter’s village via the Dreadfort) prior to being summoned by Stannis. This is why Arnolf had maester Tybald of the Dreadfort with him. Knowing that hundreds of smallfolk were taking refuge in White Harbor out of fear of Ramsay, it’s highly unlikely that rumors about Davos’s death would have reached Arnolf via smallfolk or overland trade. With Ramsay Bolton occupying the Dreadfort, who in their right mind would travel there?

With Ramsay Bolton occupying the Dreadfort, who in their right mind would travel there? Likewise, neither Karhold nor the Dreadfort are hubs of sea or river trade, so Arnolf is unlikely to have learned about Davos via the scuttlebutt of traveling sailors.

There is a substantial amount of evidence and reason to doubt Arnolf Karstark as a candidate, especially when contrasted with Tycho. In light of these observations, it seems fair to eliminate him from the pool of suspects.

In that case, only Tycho Nestoris remains. Yet reducing the field to just one candidate does not automatically prove Tycho’s involvement. It does however provide an extremely narrow target upon which to focus our efforts.

Can we prove (or establish a preponderance of evidence) that Tycho told Stannis about Davos?

I’ve already pointed out that Tycho has demonstrated an ability to provide Stannis with strategically valuable information. If Tycho knew about Davos, there’s no reason to believe he would withhold that information.

Further, Tycho is a representative of the Iron Bank. The Iron Bank has a vested interest in seeing Stannis survive to repay the debts of the Iron Throne, plus interest. Thus Tycho and the bank have tremendous incentive to ensure Stannis has the best chances possible. It is in Tycho’s (and the Iron Bank’s) interests to share any knowledge which benefits Stannis. Tycho explicitly states this much:



“The debts belong to the Iron Throne,” Tycho declared, “and whosoever sits on that chair must pay them. Since young King Tommen and his counsellors have become so obdurate, we mean to broach the subject with King Stannis. Should he prove himself more worthy of our trust, it would of course be our great pleasure to lend him whatever help he needs.”

— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

This should remove all doubt: if Tycho knew about Davos’s fate and considered it vital that Stannis knew, the banker would not hesitate to tell the king.

Why in seven hells does this matter?

The reason this matters relates to matters of military intelligence, if Tycho was the one to tell Stannis about Davos… what other secrets and tidbits of strategic value might he have shared?

Knowing that the Iron Bank has a vested interest in Stannis, it would seem wise of them to provide whatever knowledge that can bolster Stannis’s chances.

* * *

Means, Motive and Opportunity

I would hope that the observations above have convinced you that Tycho has both the motive and opportunity to tell Stannis about Davos. What remains lacking is the means.

In the context of this essay, means refers to Tycho’s capacity to have actually known about Davos.

So now we’ve created a very specific avenue of research: we research the details of Tycho’s travels. We specifically seek to answer the following:

How, when and where could Tycho have learned about Davos in the first place?

There is an immediate observation:

If Tycho did learn about Davos, it must have been prior to arriving at Eastwatch.

No one at the Wall or any subsequent phase of Tycho’s travels has apparent knowledge of Davos’s fate. Thus we are interested in determining Tycho’s travels prior to arriving at Eastwatch, and how he would have learned of Davos’s fate.

Explaining this requires a dive into White Harbor itself, specifically the chapter in A Dance with Dragons where Davos arrives in the city.

<table of contents>

* * *

THE FALSE BRAAVOSI

When Davos ‘smuggles himself’ into White Harbor, one of his first visits is to the Lazy Eel, a disreputable dive bar:

It was wine he wanted, though—sour, dark, and dismal. He strolled across the yard and down a flight of steps, to a winesink called the Lazy Eel, underneath a warehouse full of sheepskins. Back in his smuggling days, the Eel had been renowned for offering the oldest whores and vilest wine in White Harbor, along with meat pies full of lard and gristle that were inedible on their best days and poisonous on their worst. With fare like that, most locals shunned the place, leaving it for sailors who did not know any better. You never saw a city guardsman down in the Lazy Eel, or a customs officer.

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Davos has the intentions of gathering intelligence here, to find out about the regional politics before he makes any move to call upon Wyman Manderly.

The only problem is that there’s something amiss in this winesink:

There is a highly suspicious Braavosi sailor in the Lazy Eel.

Let me show you an insurmountable heap of evidence:

* * *

Somber Attire

The oarsman’s garb is wholly incorrect for a Braavosi of his status. Take a look at this excerpt from A Feast for Crows, where Samwell and Arya encounter some bravos:

Leaving, he almost bumped into two young men beneath the Cattery’s red lantern. One was dark and one was fair. The dark-haired one said something in Braavosi. “I am sorry,” Sam had to say. “I do not understand.” He edged away from them, afraid. In the Seven Kingdoms nobles draped themselves in velvets, silks, and samites of a hundred hues whilst peasants and smallfolk wore raw wool and dull brown roughspun. In Braavos it was otherwise. The bravos swaggered about like peacocks, fingering their swords, whilst the mighty dressed in charcoal grey and purple, blues that were almost black and blacks as dark as a moonless night. “My friend Terro says you are so fat you make him sick,” said the fair-haired bravo, whose jacket was green velvet on one side and cloth-of-silver on the other. “My friend Terro says that the rattle of your sword makes his head ache.” He was speaking in the Common Tongue. The other one, the dark-haired bravo in the burgundy brocade and yellow cloak whose name would appear to have been Terro, made some comment in Braavosi, and his fair-haired friend laughed, and said, “My friend Terro says you dress above your station. Are you some great lord, to wear the black?”

— SAMWELL III, A FEAST FOR CROWS

We clearly see that Braavosi reserve the more subdued hues for the high and mighty. Now consider that oarsman:

“I do,” said the man who’d started all the talk of dragons, a Braavosi oarsman in a somber woolen jack.

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Want to know something interesting? There is another Braavosi in A Dance with Dragons whose garb is described as ‘somber’:

“And here we have the honorable Tycho Nestoris, an emissary of the Iron Bank of Braavos, come to treat with His Grace King Stannis.” The banker doffed his hat and made a sweeping bow. “Lord Commander. I thank you and your brothers for your hospitality.” He spoke the Common Tongue flawlessly, with only the slightest hint of accent. Half a foot taller than Jon, the Braavosi sported a beard as thin as a rope sprouting from his chin and reaching almost to his waist. His robes were a somber purple, trimmed with ermine. A high stiff collar framed his narrow face. “I hope we shall not inconvenience you too greatly.”

— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

If the color of clothing is a marker of status in Braavosi culture and Tycho wears ‘somber’ garb, it makes no sense for the oarsman to be wearing a ‘somber jack’ unless he was somehow equivalent in status to a banker of the Iron Bank. An unlikely circumstance to say the least.

The idea that ‘somber’ garb is indicative of high status is once again reinforced in Arya’s sample chapter from The Winds of Winter:

The balconies were filling too. The first and third levels were for merchants and captains and other respectable folk. The bravos preferred the fourth and highest, where the seats were cheapest. It was a riot of bright color up there, while down below more somber shades held sway. The second balcony was cut up into private boxes where the mighty could comport themselves in comfort and privacy, safely apart from the vulgarity above and below.

— MERCY, THE WINDS OF WINTER

Once again high-status Braavosi are specifically identified with the term ‘somber’. Furthermore, notice the reuse of the term ‘mighty’ as an indication of high status, as the bravos in Samwell’s excerpt also stated. These are amazingly congruent with the prior passages.

Returning to Westeros, isn’t it therefore striking that the Storm Dancer‘s “oarsman” and Tycho are the only two Braavosi in Westeros who are described in such somber garb. Indeed, only one other person in all of A Dance of Dragons is described as wearing somber colors: Moqorro—after his robes have been drenched in ocean water for days before his rescue.

So you have to ask yourself: How many Braavosi with status akin to a banker of the Iron Bank can there be wandering around the port cities of Westeros?

NOTE: You will find mention of somber garb elsewhere in A Song of Ice and Fire, but these passages do not refer to Braavosi. They also often occur in situations where the context renders somber to have a meaning other that implying superior status, such as wearing somber clothes to Tywin’s wake.

* * *

Japing of Dragons

A true Braavosi does not joke about dragons:

“My lord jests. You will forgive me if I do not laugh. We Braavosi are descended from those who fled Valyria and the wroth of its dragonlords. We do not jape of dragons.”

— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

And yet the Braavosi oarsman clearly drops a joke about dragons in the bar:

“Daenerys,” Davos said. “She was named for the Daenerys who wed the Prince of Dorne during the reign of Daeron the Second. I don’t know what became of her.” “I do,” said the man who’d started all the talk of dragons, a Braavosi oarsman in a somber woolen jack. “When we were down to Pentos we moored beside a trader called the Sloe-Eyed Maid, and I got to drinking with her captain’s steward. He told me a pretty tale about some slip of a girl who come aboard in Qarth, to try and book passage back to Westeros for her and three dragons. Silver hair she had, and purple eyes. ‘I took her to the captain my own self,’ this steward swore to me, ‘but he wasn’t having none of that. There’s more profit in cloves and saffron, he tells me, and spices won’t set fire to your sails.’ ” Laughter swept the cellar.

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS * * *

Incorrect Nationality

After a small bit of discussion, eventually the conversation turns to dragons. The first bit we hear on the subject is this:

His fellow drinkers were talking about dragons now. “You’re bloody mad,” said an oarsman off Storm Dancer. “The Beggar King’s been dead for years. Some Dothraki horselord cut his head off.”

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Later, this same oarsman is identified as a Braavosi:

“I do,” said the man who’d started all the talk of dragons, a Braavosi oarsman in a somber woolen jack.

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Now herein lies a major problem:

This Braavosi oarsman says he serves aboard Storm Dancer.

However, Storm Dancer is a Tyroshi ship.

This ship first appeared in A Game of Thrones, it was the ship Catelyn took from White Harbor to King’s Landing:

Moreo smiled. “As you say.” He spoke the Common Tongue fluently, with only the slightest hint of a Tyroshi accent. He’d been plying the narrow sea for thirty years, he’d told her, as oarman, quartermaster, and finally captain of his own trading galleys. The Storm Dancer was his fourth ship, and his fastest, a two-masted galley of sixty oars.

— CATELYN IV, A GAME OF THRONES

Lest you be concerned that Moreo hires non-Tyroshi seamen:

Moreo bellowed a command. As one, sixty oars lifted from the river, then reversed and backed water. The galley slowed. Another shout. The oars slid back inside the hull. As they thumped against the dock, Tyroshi seamen leapt down to tie up.

— CATELYN IV, A GAME OF THRONES

So of course another problem with this ‘Braavosi oarsman’ is that he claims to serve aboard a ship that would most likely not take him. Slavery in Tyrosh is widely practiced, the ratio of slaves to freemen being around 3:1. This would seem to strongly discourage any free Braavosi from serving on a Tyroshi ship.

* * *

Incorrect Attribution

Next, this same Braavosi oarsman claims to have heard a fantastic tale from the steward of the Sloe-Eyed Maid:

“I do,” said the man who’d started all the talk of dragons, a Braavosi oarsman in a somber woolen jack. “When we were down to Pentos we moored beside a trader called the Sloe-Eyed Maid, and I got to drinking with her captain’s steward. He told me a pretty tale about some slip of a girl who come aboard in Qarth, to try and book passage back to Westeros for her and three dragons. Silver hair she had, and purple eyes. ‘I took her to the captain my own self,’ this steward swore to me, ‘but he wasn’t having none of that. There’s more profit in cloves and saffron, he tells me, and spices won’t set fire to your sails.’ ”

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

However, this is not reflective of the actual truth we get from Daenerys herself:

The cargomaster of the Myrish galley Silken Spirit opined that dragons were too dangerous at sea, where any stray breath of flame might set the rigging afire. The owner of Lord Faro’s Belly would risk dragons, but not Dothraki. “I’ll have no such godless savages in my Belly, I’ll not.” The two brothers who captained the sister ships Quicksilver and Greyhound seemed sympathetic and invited them into the cabin for a glass of Arbor red. They were so courteous that Dany was hopeful for a time, but in the end the price they asked was far beyond her means, and might have been beyond Xaro’s. Pinchbottom Petto and Sloe-Eyed Maid were too small for her needs, Bravo was bound for the Jade Sea, and Magister Manolo scarce looked seaworthy.

— DAENERYS V, A CLASH OF KINGS

A close read shows that the real reason the Sloe-Eyed Maid wasn’t used was because it was too small, not because the captain feared the dragons. It’s not even clear that Daenerys needed to board the Maid in order to determine its insufficiency, the excerpt manages to include details from Dany’s encounters with each captain except for Pinchbottom, Manolo and the Sloe-Eyed Maid, who all had issues that would not require boarding them to see.

In fact, it looks like the words from the Silken Spirit’s cargomaster are a much more accurate match for the Braavosi’s claims.

* * *

Curious Cargo Knowledge

As noted previously, the oarsman incorrectly attributes his joke to a steward from the Sloe-Eyed Maid. In telling his joke, he specifically mentions cloves and saffron, the two spices (aside from Volantene black pepper) that the Sloe-Eyed Maid was carrying.

Isn’t it convenient that this oarsman pins his story on a ship that no longer exists, one that Davos just so happened to learn about?

Isn’t it also convenient that the oarsman mentions the very same spices that we know Davos encountered in relation to the Sloe-Eyed Maid?

Saffron is a rare and costly thing, worth more that gold according to Davos. Only kings appear to be able to afford it with any regularity. You would assume it’s not a spice that trades in high volume, thereby indicating that its uncommon aboard ships.

Although it cannot be proven, this might suggest that the oarsman may know something about what happened to the Sloe-Eyed Maid.

* * *

Odd History

One final oddity is that this Braavosi also declares he once served aboard the Princess Daena:

“Daena was old King Baelor’s wife,” said the oarsman. “I rowed on a ship named for her once. The Princess Daena.”

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

The name of the ship is congruous with the names assigned to vessels in the King’s fleet. I find it highly curious that a Braavosi once served on one of the king’s ships… as an oarsman of all things.

* * *

And Yet a Braavosi?

You might not agree that all of the prior observations are that meaningful, but collectively there seems to be enough inconsistencies in the Braavosi’s presentation to draw a reader’s suspicion. Surely you can agree that the ‘somber jack’ and the dragon joke to be especially odd.

What do these findings suggest?

Without reading too much into the data, some cursory ideas emerge:

The Braavosi oarsman may not actually be a Braavosi at all. This would be based on the idea that the number of inconsistencies suggest the oarsman is pretending to be a Braavosi deckhand on the Tyroshi Storm Dancer.

This would be based on the idea that the number of inconsistencies suggest the oarsman is pretending to be a Braavosi deckhand on the Tyroshi Storm Dancer. Alternatively, the Braavosi oarsman may indeed be genuine, but poorly disguised. The fact that Davos identifies the oarsman as Braavosi may suggest that he is observing things not on the page, such as accent or facial features. Thus it’s possible that the man is indeed Braavosi, but the various problems with his presentation indicate an inability to recognize the various “tells” that would spoil his disguise.

The fact that Davos identifies the oarsman as Braavosi may suggest that he is observing things not on the page, such as accent or facial features. Thus it’s possible that the man is indeed Braavosi, but the various problems with his presentation indicate an inability to recognize the various “tells” that would spoil his disguise. It’s also possible that the Braavosi’s disguise is actually sufficient, its just that readers are too well-informed to miss the discrepancies , once they are pointed out. This is quite plausible: each of the oddities shown above were only noticed because they differed from accounts in multiple point-of-view chapters, each one from a different character. No one character in the books knows all of the different reasons to suspect the oarsman, only readers are thus equipped.

, once they are pointed out. This is quite plausible: each of the oddities shown above were only noticed because they differed from accounts in multiple point-of-view chapters, each one from a different character. No one character in the books knows all of the different reasons to suspect the oarsman, only readers are thus equipped. Another possibility is that all of these observations are just benign, or are authorial mistakes. I find that hard to swallow, especially the ‘somber jack’ and the dragon joke.

So, discarding the last possibility, the remaining options suggest the idea of a person who is concealing a true identity.

Who then could this possibly false Braavosi actually be?

Well, given the observations about Braavosi clothing, you would automatically assume that the oarsman is either a captain, a high-ranking merchant, or a keyholder/banker.

<table of contents>

* * *

REVEALING YOUR HAND

When Davos arrives in White Harbor, he intends to conceal his presence until he is confident that he can approach Wyman Manderly safely:

A pair of customs men were clambering aboard as he went down the gangplank, but neither gave him so much as a glance. They were there to see the captain and inspect the hold; common seamen did not concern them, and few men looked as common as Davos. He was of middling height, his shrewd peasant’s face weathered by wind and sun, his grizzled beard and brown hair well salted with grey. His garb was plain as well: old boots, brown breeches and blue tunic, a woolen mantle of undyed wool, fastened with a wooden clasp. He wore a pair of salt-stained leather gloves to hide the stubby fingers of the hand that Stannis had shortened, so many years ago. Davos hardly looked a lord, much less a King’s Hand. That was all to the good until he knew how matters stood here.

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

However, during the heated discussion in the Lazy Eel, Davos makes two telling mistakes:

“Daenela,” the proprietor said loudly. “That was her name. The Mad King’s daughter, I mean, not Baelor’s bloody wife.” “Daenerys,” Davos said. “She was named for the Daenerys who wed the Prince of Dorne during the reign of Daeron the Second. I don’t know what became of her.” “I do,” said the man who’d started all the talk of dragons, a Braavosi oarsman in a somber woolen jack. “When we were down to Pentos we moored beside a trader called the Sloe-Eyed Maid, and I got to drinking with her captain’s steward. He told me a pretty tale about some slip of a girl who come aboard in Qarth, to try and book passage back to Westeros for her and three dragons. Silver hair she had, and purple eyes. ‘I took her to the captain my own self,’ this steward swore to me, ‘but he wasn’t having none of that. There’s more profit in cloves and saffron, he tells me, and spices won’t set fire to your sails.’ ” Laughter swept the cellar. Davos did not join in. He knew what had befallen the Sloe-Eyed Maid. The gods were cruel to let a man sail across half the world, then send him chasing a false light when he was almost home. That captain was a bolder man than me, he thought, as he made his way to the door.

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Davos’s words and actions betray two key details about him:

Davos has a knowledge of Targaryen history much greater than his commoner peers. Let’s put it this way: if you reverse perspectives, the Braavosi “oarsman” would have realized that Davos possesses an education inconsistent with his common appearance. This would seem to ably mirror our observations about the oarsman!

Let’s put it this way: if you reverse perspectives, the Braavosi “oarsman” would have realized that Davos possesses an education inconsistent with his common appearance. This would seem to ably mirror our observations about the oarsman! Davos has knowledge of (or some other connection to) the Sloe-Eyed Maid. The joke regarding the Sloe-Eyed Maid seems to bother Davos and compel him to leave the Lazy Eel, without laughing at all. It’s conspicuous. It would be entirely reasonable for an astute witness to conclude that Davos had some sort of connection or interest in the Maid. Consider this point in light of the fact that the oarsman also mentioned the rare saffron the Maid carried as well.

There seems to be a reasonable hypothesis emerging here:

By allowing these two mistakes Davos betrays his own disguise.

Thus Davos has revealed himself as educated beyond his common appearance, and knowledgeable of the Sloe-Eyed Maid. He too is in disguise.



So what? How could these two mistakes in the Lazy Eel possibly be important?

Consider the following:

Is it possible that Davos was deliberately coaxed into these mistakes?

This would suggest that the oarsman may have been specifically looking for Davos. Perhaps this oarsman is some sort of undercover agent. This possibility makes some sense: Davos is extremely common looking, it would be difficult for a stranger to identify him.

Now let me return to that observation about the Sloe-Eyed Maid‘s cargo and ask a question:

What if the Braavosi oarsman knew about the fate of the Sloe-Eyed Maid’s fate, and the cargo she carried?

If the Braavosi already knew about the Maid‘s fate *and* was looking for Davos, the oarsman may have used this detail to ‘out’ Davos at the Lazy Eel.

Of course, there is a major problem with this idea:

How could the Braavosi know about the Maid‘s fate, or it’s cargo?

Those details would only seem to be privy to the people of Sweetsister, Godric Borrell in particular. This is a concern that I will address, but later in this essay.

* * *

Although I’ve left a few points lacking in explanation, I feel ready to connect the dots. Before proceeding just keep these observations in mind:

Davos reveals his disingenuous appearance while at the Lazy Eel.

The oarsman may have been actively searching for Davos, attempting to coax Davos into revealing himself.

In order to have understood the significance of the ‘Sloe-Eyed Maid‘ joke, the oarsman would have needed knowledge unavailable outside of Sweetsister, perhaps known only to some of Lord Borrell’s men.

<table of contents>

* * *

WEAVING THE THREADS

Let’s connect the dots and make a complete theory. First, a brief synopsis of the observations:

In the first section of this essay, I arrived at the theory that Stannis could only have learned about Davos from Tycho Nestoris .

. In the second section, I showed that there is a highly suspicious Braavosi character in White Harbor at the same time as Davos.

at the same time as Davos. Lastly, I showed how Davos has perhaps revealed his identity to the oarsman. I also introduced the hypothesis that the oarsman may have been actively looking for Davos, intentionally steering conversation in order to trick Davos into a mistake.

I believe that these observations are facets of a larger idea. By synthesizing these observations, I arrive at the following theory:

Tycho knows about Davos because he was at White Harbor at the same time as Davos.

Tycho (or one of his agents) was the Braavosi oarsman.



Tycho first looked for Davos on Sweetsister. He was subsequently directed to White Harbor.

There is an interesting observation that could very well support this, a noteworthy ship in the harbor.

* * *

The Braavosi Galleas

There is an unnamed Braavosi galleas in White Harbor when Davos arrives:

It was the seagoing vessels that interested him most, however; a pair of carracks as drab and tattered as the Merry Midwife, the trading galley Storm Dancer, the cogs Brave Magister and Horn of Plenty, a galleas from Braavos marked by her purple hull and sails …

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

So there is certainly a ship that could have ferried Tycho to White Harbor. This is novel because one of the ships that Tycho later claims to own is a galleas:

“Cotter Pyke informs me that you came to Eastwatch with three ships. A galleas, a galley, and a cog.”

— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

So its entirely possible that Tycho was traveling aboard the galleas in White Harbor, or is otherwise affiliated with it.

* * *

The Big Question — Why Look for Davos?

There is a big question that I have yet to answer:

Why would Tycho want to speak with Davos, in lieu of Stannis himself?

Well obviously there is the matter of location. If Tycho knew where to find Davos, it would certainly be easier than trekking all the way to the Wall.

As Hand, Davos speaks with Stannis’s voice. He could vouchsafe Stannis’s intent to repay debts, and so forth.

* * *

The Other Big Question

How would Tycho know where to find Davos?

Consider that I’m right about a specific hypothesis:

Tycho (or his affiliate) does know about the Sloe-Eyed Maid‘s fate, as well as its cargo.

Not only that, but this person was also aware that Davos knew. The joke was a deliberate attempt to spot Davos based on his reaction.

How would this person know all of these things?

This person could only have learned these facts on Sweetsister. The details concerning the spices (particularly saffron) might be closely held by Lord Borrell.

This would necessitate that Tycho first stopped in Sweetsister while looking for Davos.

But why would Tycho stop at Sweetsister?

Simple: because someone told him that Davos was there. This is a point where I’d rather not make the answer obvious, I’d rather leave it for you to puzzle out. I will give you a clue though:

What ‘mystery person’ would know that Davos was on Sweetsister?

<table of contents>

* * *

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

So you see, the theory goes like this:

Tycho and his ships were sailing to meet Stannis, in an effort to discuss debts to the Iron Bank. Tycho encounters the mystery person from the previous section, who directs him to Sweetsister. Tycho looks for Davos on Sweetsister. While here he learns about the Sloe-Eyed Maid, and/or that Davos has traveled to White Harbor. Once at White Harbor, Tycho or an affiliate conducts a covert search for Davos. Tycho ultimately discovered Davos in the Lazy Eel but did not have time to approach him prior to Davos’s ‘arrest’ by the Manderly garrison. In resignation Tycho sails for Eastwatch and Stannis. Upon finally reaching Stannis, Tycho tells Stannis about Davos’s “death”.

A few of these points warrant further explanation:

Why would the mystery person tell where Davos went? What would their interest in this venture be?

Again, without revealing the mystery, consider what Tycho, a representative of the Iron Bank, can immediately do to satisfy a major financial problem, serve the banks own interests, *and* renew their interest in Stannis and/or Davos.

How would Tycho discover that Davos had left Sweetsister for White Harbor?

First of all, the mystery person could have simply said that Davos was going to Sweetsister, and planned to subsequently go to White Harbor.

Two other possibilities occur to me. First, Tycho could have simply learned of Davos’s destination from Lord Godric Borrell himself. After all, Godric had previously showed an interest in ransoming Davos for gold, and Tycho is certainly in a position to satisfy that desire.

However, Godric may be serious about his desire to feign loyalty to the Iron Throne, denying his involvement with Davos. In this case, Tycho could have learned or reasoned Davos’s departure, based on a few details:

She was not a ship to draw a second glance, unless it was to wonder how she stayed afloat. The Merry Midwife was known in White Harbor too. For years she had plied a humble trade between there and Sisterton.

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS “How long will you be gone?” “A day at least. It may be longer.” Davos had found that lords liked to keep you waiting. They did it to make you anxious, he suspected, and to demonstrate their power. “The Midwife will linger here three days. No longer. They will look for me back in Sisterton.”

— DAVOS II, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

A cursory investigation would reveal the recent departure of the Midwife, and it wouldn’t be too hard to presume that Davos left on that ship. Tycho would then only need a ship faster than the wallowing Midwife in order to arrive at White Harbor first: to this end, the Braavosi galley or the Storm Dancer would be suited. Tycho would leave the other two ships on Sweetsister.

* * *

You have to trek back to the beginning of this essay and recall what I argued:

Tycho was the one who told Stannis about Davos’s “death”.

The reason Tycho knows this is because he was actively pursuing Davos.

After Davos’s death, Tycho sails for Stannis.

Herein lies a potentially massive revelation in A Dance with Dragons. When Jon first talks to Tycho, he inquires about debts:

“You come seeking Stannis, is that correct?” “It is, my lord. Queen Selyse has suggested that we might send word to Deepwood Motte by raven, to inform His Grace that I await his pleasure at the Nightfort. The matter that I mean to put to him is too delicate to entrust to letters.” “A debt.” What else could it be? “His own debt? Or his brother’s?” The banker pressed his fingers together. “It would not be proper for me to discuss Lord Stannis’s indebtedness or lack of same. As to King Robert … it was indeed our pleasure to assist His Grace in his need. For so long as Robert lived, all was well. Now, however, the Iron Throne has ceased all repayment.” “…Should he prove himself more worthy of our trust, it would of course be our great pleasure to lend him whatever help he needs.”

— JON IX, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

Earlier I pointed out that the Iron Bank has tremendous incentive to aid Stannis. I believe that the Iron Bank may have established a tentative agreement with our ‘mystery person’, to repay debts Stannis owes, replenish his losses, and aid Stannis in his campaign.

Of course this aid would be contingent on Stannis accepting the bank’s terms. It is possible that the Iron Bank would fund the mystery person in advance of Stannis’s terms, but this is completely uncertain.

Before you discount this theory, I want to show some highly relevant excerpts:

Stannis snorted. “You spend your words as if every one were a golden dragon. I wonder, how much gold do you have laid by?” “Gold?” Are those the dragons the red woman means to wake? Dragons made of gold? “Such taxes as we collect are paid in kind, Your Grace. The Watch is rich in turnips but poor in coin.” “Turnips are not like to appease Salladhor Saan. I require gold or silver.”

— JON I, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS “Stannis will be paying for them,” Salladhor Saan had fumed. “He will be paying for them with good gold, every one.”

— DAVOS I, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS Davos had tried to persuade him to stay true. If Salla abandoned Stannis and his cause, he pointed out, he abandoned all hope of collecting the gold that was due him. A victorious King Tommen was not like to pay his defeated uncle’s debts, after all. Salla’s only hope was to remain loyal to Stannis Baratheon until he won the Iron Throne. Elsewise he would never see a groat of his money. He had to be patient.

— DAVOS I, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS Davos threaded his way through the tables to a chair. In the days before his knighthood, he had often bought cargoes from Salladhor Saan. The Lyseni was a smuggler himself, as well as a trader, a banker, a notorious pirate, and the self-styled Prince of the Narrow Sea.

— DAVOS I, A CLASH OF KINGS The king’s voice was choked with anger. “You are a worse pirate than Salladhor Saan.”

— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER “Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch.” Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. “A true king pays his debts.”

— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

What you see emerging is a clear solution to both Stannis and Salladhor’s woes: a sure stream of income. Not only can Stannis finally pay Salladhor, but he can insure that future payments can be faithfully made.

Further, with Salladhor’s background as a banker, he would be well aware of the stability of incomes granted via the Iron Bank (so long as Stannis does not default on repayments).

Further, we can see in Stannis’s behavior that he is truly committed to repaying debts whenever he can.

* * *

This is where I choose to end this essay, but I am not finished examining Tycho’s importance to the novels. Further essays will appear in the near-future.

<table of contents>

<the mannifesto>

* * *