“Russian government resigns as Vladimir Putin plans future”, reads BBC top headline on January 15th, 2020. This article name, and so many others, make the resignation a focal point of the news story, when, in fact, it is just a minor step in a grand scheme that is Putin’s “future”.

What is the focal point then?

During the annual president’s address to the Federal Assembly, State of the Union-like event, Vladimir Putin dropped a major bomb on presiding ministers and politicians: he proposed a Constitutional reform. Hours after the announcement, the Federation Council – the executive branch with Prime Minister Medvedev – resigned. Mr. Medvedev cited his deep disagreement with planned reforms as one of the reasons for such sudden resignation. The trigger and response, however, don’t exactly match: the resignation is a surrender, not a sign of disagreement.

If the Prime Minister really wanted to check Putin’s actions, he would have stayed and blocked the new legislature. Further, many journalists started suspecting something coming when Mr. Medvedev announced he wasn’t coming to the Gaidar Forum – another annual event that is strategically vital for his popularity and influence as a prime minister. In a word, it is clear to some political scientists that “deep disagreement” with the Constitutional reform isn’t the true reason for the Federation Council resignation.

What exactly is being proposed?

All suggested amendments to the Constitution sum up to over 50 potential changes to the current document. Here are a few of the most drastic or interesting examples as well as their explanations. The original text will be in regular font, while the added amendments will be in bold.

“The Russian Federation may participate in interstate associations and transfer to them part of its powers according to international treaties and agreements, if this does not involve the limitation of the rights and freedoms of man and citizen and does not contradict the principles of the constitutional system of the Russian Federation.”+ Decisions of interstate organs based on international agreements of the Russian Federation, that contradict the Constitution, are not subjects of enforcement on Russia’s territory.

Explanation:

The added sentence alone will permit Russia to violate international agreements domestically. Socially, this is the most concerning proposal as it will open up infringement of human rights that aren’t mentioned in the present Constitution.

Chapter 4, Article 81, Point 3:

“One and the same person may not be elected President of the Russian Federation for more than two terms running.”

Explanation:

At first sight, this amendment is taking away power from president Putin – it limits the president to only a maximum of 12 years in office. In reality, it doesn’t seem like he will be running again after the end of his second term in 2024. What this amendment is doing is taking away power from the future rulers, making sure no one becomes as influential as Putin did in 2000 through 2024.

Chapter 4, Article 83:

“The President has a right to:

a) Appoint by agreement with the State Duma the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation” + the candidacy of which is approved by Duma upon presentation and removes the Chairman of the Government.

b) Have the right to chair meetings of the Government of the Russian Federation” + approve the structure of the federal government as proposed by the Chairman of the Government. In the case of the Chairman removal, the new Chairman does not present a new structure.

Explanation:

This is where the loopholes come in: currently, the president can only dissolve the government (the executive branch) as a whole, which presents an obstacle in itself. This amendment is giving the president the power to virtually fire the Chairman of the Government without dissolving the Government entirely. Part b indicates that when the Chairman is removed, their structure plan is no longer considered – the president is left with the power to construct the federal government.

These three changes are only a few examples of from the new Consitution but they capture the essence of what Mr. Putin is trying to do: weaken any future rulers, give Russia more independence from the international community and law, create more centralized apparatus with less regional autonomy. There is no question in these amendments passing as the partisan divide in Russia’s government is almost nonexistent and the people vote on the new Constitution as a whole – not amendment by amendment.

What happens after 2024?

2024 will be the year Mr. Putin serves his last term in office. The year will signify more than just the end of a presidential term – it will mark the end of what some have called a reign. Many young Russians have never seen a different president in office. What happens after 2024? Statistically speaking, when a leader of a highly personalized dictatorship, such as Putin, exits the office, 74 percent of the time the regime falls apart with it. So a very likely reason for such oddly placed constitutional reform is Putin trying to institutionalize the power and prepare Russia for the life “after”.

Further, with the regimes collapsing, 26 percent of them turn into a new form of authoritarianism; only in the other 26 percent do these cases democratize. Many have hoped that with president Putin out of the picture the situation will change but statistically, the chances for positive change are quite low.

The Bigger Picture

In 1996 Harvard professor Samuel Huntington published “Clash of Civilizations” – an influential work that divided the world into nine civilizations that would, well, “clash”. Despite some historical change in context, international politics has strangely followed his predictions. 9/11, Kurdish conflict in Turkey, US-China trade wars, even Israel and Palestine could all qualify as conflicts of civilizations and their cultures.

Putin’s regime set up a perfect scenario for the Orthodox civilization to collide with the Western one, isolating the country from the rest of the world. However, 2024 will be an important year not only for Russia’s domestic policy but to the international community at large. Will this highly personalized regime collapse and transition to democracy? In 26 percent of the cases, yes: long-term, It would bring Russia closer to the West, opening up the possibilities of it joining the European Union and NATO. It would also mean weakening Russia’s presence in the international arena, providing space for other P5 agendas.

In the rest of the cases though, 2024 is likely to bring a Putin-led puppet government with similar isolationist tactics that we are seeing from Russia today.

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