Bitcoin: This Time Ain’t Different

Bitcoin has taken the world by storm.

The invasion was quick and mesmerizing. Blog posts and news articles with headlines screaming “Bitcoin $200!” are becoming hilariously dated before they can get them up on the web. Heck, not even nuclear threats from North Korea can pry our eyes away from the Bitcoin charts. We simply shut out the world and cheer for higher prices.

I’ll admit it’s a fun ride–even when you’re just watching from the sidelines. But you can’t get too caught up in the craze…

I’m certain you’ve seen charts like this one many times before. In fact, I could pull up countless examples of this parabolic pattern. Spoiler alert: they all end the same way.

Could Bitcoin double from here? Absolutely. Then it might even double again.

But you gotta get your head out of the clouds for a minute. History has shown us that these moves all end badly. Every single one. It doesn’t matter if a business or idea is groundbreaking, terrible or somewhere in between. The pendulum will eventually swing back in the other direction. You can’t argue it any other way…

I’m already seeing rumblings from the Bitcoin faithful defending this run-up. However, all of the arguments boil down to the same tired excuse:

This time it’s different.

No it isn’t. It’s never different.

Go ahead and speculate all you want on Bitcoin. You might make money, you might lose money. Just don’t treat it as a long-term investment. Any emotional attachment will slaughter your account.

Greg Guenthner

for The Daily Reckoning