IT IS ironic that Brexiteers who yearn for British independence from the European Union are often fervently against any nation’s independence from the United Kingdom. Yet Brexit would have big repercussions for Scotland and Northern Ireland, and to some extent Wales. In all three the debate has been more subdued than in England, perhaps because majorities of voters look likely to back the Remain side (unlike the 1975 referendum, when they were all less keen than England on Europe). But this means that Brexit, were it to happen, would be imposed by English voters against the wishes of many along the Celtic fringe.

It would certainly rile the Scots, who see Brussels as a sort of alternative power centre to London. A recent debate in the Scottish parliament found all five main parties there backing Remain. Opinion polls suggest that as many as 75% of Scottish voters might agree. Remainers have tried to use the Scottish card to strengthen their hand in England by warning that Brexit would trigger a second independence referendum which (despite losing the first one in 2014 by 55-45%) a resurgent Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) might win.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and first minister of Scotland, has declared Brexit would be a “material change” that could lead to unstoppable demands for another referendum. Yet there are reasons to doubt it would happen soon. The SNP remains dominant in Scotland, after sweeping 56 of the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster in the 2015 general election. But a month ago it lost its overall majority in the Scottish parliament, when the Conservatives leapt into second place. And even if she were able to call a second referendum, Ms Sturgeon cannot risk it unless she is certain of winning. The example of Quebec suggests that two lost votes can sink hopes of independence for decades.

Moreover, the uncertainties that defeated independence in 2014 remain. Oil prices are half as high as then, so an independent Scotland would face even bigger economic and fiscal difficulties. After Brexit, the EU might be more welcoming to a Scotland seeking membership, but it would still object to its keeping the pound instead of adopting the euro. And if a post-Brexit United Kingdom ended free movement of people from the EU, that might mean erecting a border between north and south. England is by far Scotland’s largest trading partner. Any border (or customs) controls along Hadrian’s Wall could be very damaging. Such considerations will surely lead Ms Sturgeon to think hard before pressing for a second independence referendum. She certainly will not move fast.

In contrast, Brexit would create immediate headaches for Northern Ireland, starting with the economy. Farming matters more in Northern Ireland than on the mainland, and it depends more on EU subsidies. Links to Ireland are crucial: it takes 34% of Northern Irish exports. Brussels has provided massive support to Northern Ireland since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. Many in Belfast are sceptical of Leavers’ promises to make up for any money lost by Brexit. Claire Hanna, a member of the Social Democratic and Labour Party in the assembly, points out that, unlike Britain overall, Northern Ireland is a substantial net beneficiary from the EU budget.

Ireland is the EU country most worried about Brexit. Irish ministers regularly state their opposition. Relations between the two nations are better than at any time in their history, and economic links have become closer. Travel and trade across the border are easier than ever. Britain is Ireland’s biggest export market, and Britain exports more to Ireland than to China, India and Brazil combined. Dublin to London is the world’s second-busiest international air route (after Hong Kong to Taipei).

Don’t shake it all about

Leavers say there is no reason why any of this should be affected by Brexit. Trade would continue. The common travel area between north and south began in 1922, not 1973. The Good Friday Agreement and the Northern Irish peace process did not rely on the EU. Most Northern Irish voters, especially nationalists who want a united Ireland, back Remain, though Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionists and first minister, supports Leave as, more vocally, does the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, Theresa Villiers.

Yet many in Belfast and Dublin find this attitude irresponsible. The common travel area worked only when both countries were either out of or in the European project, not when one was in and the other out. If a post-Brexit Britain restricted free movement or left the EU’s single market, there would be consequences for its only land border with another EU country, the 300-mile (480km) line dividing Northern Ireland from Ireland. Britain and Ireland might still not want to restore a hard border with customs and passport checks, but, as Cathy Gormley-Heenan of the University of Ulster points out, the other 26 EU countries would also have a say, because it would be their border, too.