Global Trends 2030 Reports





United States Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

Summary Theme Major Trends Ancillary Trends Megatrends Individual empowerment Reduction of poverty Expanding global middle class Narrowing education and gender gaps Innovations in communications technologies Improving health Increasingly conflicted ideological landscape Diffusion of power Rise and fall of countries: no hegemonic power More limits to hard power Power shifts to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world Demographic patterns Widespread aging and shrinking number of youthful countries New impetuses for migration Increasing urbanization Food, water, energy nexus Increasing demand for resources Increasing linkages among resources Game-changers Crisis-prone economy Pressures on the West Pressures on emerging powers Multipolar global economy: Inherently more fragile? Governance gap Governance starts at home: risks and opportunities Increased focus on equality and openness Creation of new governmental forms A new regional order? Increase in global multilateral cooperation Potential for conflict Interstate conflict: continued decline Intrastate conflict: chances rising Wider scope of regional instability Middle East: at a tipping point South Asia: shocks on the horizon East Asia: multiple strategic futures Europe: transforming itself Sub-Saharan Africa: turning a corner by 2030? Latin America: more prosperous but inherently fragile Innovations in new technologies Information technologies Automation and manufacturing technologies Resource technologies Health technologies The role of the US Steady US role Multiple potential scenarios for the US [84]

European Union Global Trends 2030:

Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World

Summary Theme Major Trends Ancillary Trends Empowerment of individuals: A global human community but a growing expectations gap Empowerment of individuals Global rise of the middle class More education: the cornerstone of knowledge societies The evolving information age: empowerment but threats to privacy A universal information revolution: the new world of the Internet Converging values and demands, but risk of extremism The universal spread of human rights and democracy Improving women’s rights More sharing of the earth An increasingly “post-Huntingtonian” world Increasing expectations gaps and risks of extremism and nationalism Demands for political participation but dangers of populism More gender politics Multiplication of non-conflicting identities Increasing “development with dignity” More participatory democracy Greater human development but inequality, climate change, and scarcity A rising middle class but persistent poverty and inequality Rising wealth in developing economies A shift of economic gravity to Asia and the developing world Demographics: aging and slow growth in the West and East Asia Demographic pressures migration Ongoing financial instability Output and greening pressures Less abject poverty, but persistent poverty and inequality A greater focus on women and development Inequality and the hyper-rich Social challenges in advanced economies Climate change and scarcities: challenges to human development Climate change and scarcity Water scarcity Natural resource scarcity: energy Other resource scarcities Delivering the green industrial revolution Human security: protecting citizens Major conflict trends Scarcity and strategic interests Military technology and future conflicts Regional conflict trends A polycentric world but a growing governance gap A power shift to Asia but greater uncertainty A world of diffuse power Soft power The great powers Uncertainty for some great powers Uncertainty for some rising middle powers Regionalism as a vector of power Diffusion of power but dangers of fragmentation A world of networks A world of private actors A world of cities Increasing global initiatives but governance gaps Global politics Charting the future: the governance factor Governance and responsibility: normative competition and contamination Reforming global governance: synthesis, resilience, and fairness Towards governance hubs? [85]

Russia Strategic Global Outlook 2030

Summary Theme Major Trends Description of Trends International security A more stable world The world will face less radical changes and shocks than in the previous twenty years More responsible leadership Globalization of security and development issues will bring about changes in strategic thinking of political elites of leading nations from a “center of power” orientation to one of “responsible leadership” More coordination of global powers for international peace will prevail over inclinations to conflict Widening usage of “soft” and “smart” powers in foreign policy through financial and economic superiority, science and technological advancements, culture and education, and of ideological influence. Increasing calls to reform the UN, WTO, IMF, and other organizations There will be increasing cooperation of global and regional powers in the maintenance of international security with regional integration happening in Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and to a much lesser extent in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Positive developments in global powers security There will be gradual democratic reforms in China, as well as an increasing number of democratic countries with rising nationalism. Nuclear nonproliferation between the US and Russia will be maintained at lower levels. Great Britain, France, and China may disarm faster. Increasing trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific security arrangements NATO will remain the foundation for Trans-Atlantic security with some global dimensions, cooperating with Russia and China in some regions such as Central Asia and Afghanistan. A new model for Trans-Pacific security will emerge on the basis of military and political cooperation among the US, China, Russia, Japan, and other countries in the region. Traditional challenges Rising importance of advantages in financial, economic, and natural resources; global interdependence; and manipulation of information to influence public opinion. New challenges New priorities in the security sphere, included human security; protection of property rights, information security; and habitat safety Non-traditional threats will be the front line of international military and political cooperation Economy World economic growth 4–4.5% average annual rate of growth in GDP Innovation breakthroughs in new materials; bioengineering; human health products and services; energy conservation; humanitarian and social technologies; non-traditional sources of hydrocarbons; and nano-, bio-, info- and cognitive technologies. China, the US, middle-income countries, the EU, and India will be the main contributors of world economic growth. China will become the world leading consumer market. Regional integration Integration will progress in the EU. A new level of integration in the Asia-Pacific will take the form of a free trade area of “ASEAN, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea” Globalization and global economic governance Globalization will go beyond finance toward intellectual pursuits, e.g., skilled labor, art, medicine, education, culture, entertainment. Financial markets will stabilize as the real economy becomes less dependent on finance. Improvement in global financial governance with new legitimacy of the IMF and the G-20 Ideology Liberal democratic globalization Globalization based on market and democratic principles will remain the leading ideology. Global governance Ideologies will be increasingly interconnected with global political social, economic, and cultural trends rather than only the domestic political life of countries Social sphere Rising inequalities may undermine not only national social systems, but will cause international social problems (migration, demographics, ethnic conflicts, etc.) Growing stratification of the global middle class along with the increase of its population in absolute terms. The poor will represent 20% of the global population whereas 10% will be on the verge of starvation. There will be a rapid increase in the number of millionaires and billionaires in China, India, Brazil, Russia, and other rapidly growing economies. [86]