Michigan’s changing climate

Or what do you really know about Michigan’s climate?

A recent Gallup poll found that Americans are increasingly worried about climate change and how it will affect their community.

Growing concern over potential impacts in the United States drives a national discussion toward finding common sense, effective solutions.

In the frantic, too-often panicked dialogue, it’s rare to hear about how climate change has and will affect our very own state of Michigan. We get lost in the more attractive stories of titanic melting glaciers and exotic islands being retaken by the sea. So I ask — what do you really know about Michigan’s climate?

Scientists track several statistics about our world: temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, and atmospheric particle count. When we measure them over several days or even weeks, we call it the weather. To find a region’s climate, we take the average of each statistic over a much longer period of time — generally 30 years.

There are two 30-year periods that scientists most often use to discuss Michigan’s current climate: 1951 — 1980 and 1981 — 2010. When we talk about specifics of the changing climate, we talk about the difference in the averages between those two periods.

Michigan’s climate has measurably changed: warmer air, warmer water, more extreme weather events, and wetter days. Let’s talk about a few of the notable changes between those two 30-year averages.

Wetter Days:

Annual precipitation in Michigan increased by 4.5%. Of note is that the U.P. and northern areas of the L.P. saw no increase or some decline. Southern areas of the state measured increases of approximately 8–13%. Ann Arbor in particular experienced a 25% increase in annual precipitation.

Consequently, the frequency of drought conditions has decreased, which benefits Michigan’s agriculture industry. Although as we’ll cover in a minute, more wet days has its own downside.

Warmer Air

Overall, Michigan’s annual average air temperature increased by 1.2°F.

Average winter month temperatures — December to February — increased 2.3°F. Scientists found that nighttime high temperatures increased faster than daytime high temperatures.

What about going forward? Current projections show that by 2050, the state of Michigan will experience between 5 and 25 additional days a year of temperatures exceeding 95°F and an increase in the average annual temperature of between 1.5°F and 4.5°F.

Scientists project that the number of cold — below 32°F — days per year across Michigan will decrease by between 20 and 25.

Great Lakes:

Summer surface water temperatures — measured from July to September — increased 4.5° on Lake Superior. The Great Lakes are thawing earlier and freezing later. Lake-effect weather is amplified by these changes.

We rely on the Great Lakes for not just entertainment, but food and water. Warmer water temperatures, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and increases in precipitation and nutrient runoff contribute to the growth of harmful algal blooms that rely upon those particular conditions to exist. In 2011, a record-breaking one-fifth of Lake Erie was covered.

In August 2014, another significant bloom contaminated the water supply of nearly 400,000 people in Michigan and Ohio. Fixing the underlying conditions for these incidents would require significant changes in how we approach agriculture in Northern Ohio and Southeast Michigan.

Heat Waves:

The number of days exceeding 90° F and 95° F had not changed significantly for most locations in Michigan — although this is expected to change considerably moving forward.

Residents of Southeast Michigan caught less of a break. The average number of cool, dry days decreased by 10.5 days a year.

Extreme Precipitation

Weather stations measured an increase in extreme precipitation events across the state. The average number of days with extreme precipitation — exceeding 1 inch — increased by 13.1%. Southern Michigan projects to see a 10% increase and up to 40% in the north by 2050.

Wrapping Up

Overall, many of the trends that scientists predicted would follow rampant carbon dioxide emissions on a global scale are already showing up in Michigan and have for some time: more extreme weather events, warmer days, warmer winters, and disruptions in ecosystems that we rely on for food and water.

Where did I get all of this great information from? The “2015 Michigan Climate and Health Profile Report” produced by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Division of Environmental Health Climate and Health Adaptation Program (MICHAP) and the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences Assessments Program (GLISA).