One of the frustrating things about the margin-of-victory rankings this time of year is that they try to rank all the teams. If a team has played only cupcakes, the Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings will still try to figure out, based on whether the team won by 10, 20, or 30 points, how good that team is.

Instead when I evaluate teams this time of year, I like to place teams in different buckets. Bucket one includes the teams that have played well against good teams. Bucket two includes the teams that have played poorly against good teams. And bucket three includes the teams that have played only cupcakes. For bucket three, I would prefer not to rank those teams at all. I put those teams in the category of, "Let's wait and see before we draw any conclusions."

With that inspiration, today I'm presenting a revised version of the Pomeroy Rankings. I recreate his rankings, but I only include the data from two types of games:

-Wins against teams ranked 1-80 in Pomeroy's Dec. 24th rankings AND

-All losses

I essentially look to see how teams have performed against real competition. (I started by dropping all opponents ranked 101 or higher, but a few teams scheduled heavily in the 81-100 range, and those games weren't that compelling to me. So on review, I'm only counting games against teams 1-80. Additionally, if a team loses to a team ranked above 80th, that still factors into my evaluation of the team. I don't want Arizona to get an advantage for losing to a team like UNLV that is outside the Top 80.)

Too Early to Evaluate

Team Adj Off Adj Def W L Pyth Louisville 113.1 81.2 3 0 0.979 Washington 110.6 86.5 3 0 0.944 St. John's 107.3 84.2 2 1 0.942 West Virginia 113.0 91.2 2 1 0.921 Northern Iowa 117.3 95.1 2 1 0.918 Wyoming 98.9 81.9 1 2 0.897 Colorado St. 111.0 94.9 3 0 0.858 Minnesota 102.1 91.1 1 2 0.787 LSU 97.3 92.2 1 2 0.651 Seton Hall 96.3 91.7 1 2 0.635 Vanderbilt 108.8 106.3 0 3 0.567 Dayton 94.2 92.9 1 2 0.538 Rhode Island 99.3 100.3 0 3 0.471 Boise St. 95.1 97.3 0 3 0.437



Six of the top seven teams in this table are ranked. And in fairness, they've often accomplished something. St. John's has wins over Minnesota, at Syracuse, and a close loss to Gonzaga. Washington has wins over Oklahoma and San Diego St. But I need to see a lot more before I draw conclusions about any of these teams.

Even Fewer Games Against Quality Opponents

Team Adj Off Adj Def W L Pyth TCU 108.9 80.1 1 0 0.971 Notre Dame 128.4 113.6 1 1 0.804 Ohio St. 104.3 93.2 0 2 0.785 Davidson 108.9 111.7 0 1 0.429 Harvard 69.4 99.5 0 2 0.016

Ohio St.'s ranking is entirely based on preseason expectations and blowouts of cupcakes. They don't have any quality wins yet. TCU looked great in their win against Ole Miss, but it was only one game.

Dominant Against Good Teams

Team Adj Off Adj Def W L Pyth Virginia 129.2 73.7 4 0 0.998 Kentucky 121.5 71.0 5 0 0.998 Duke 123.7 87.3 5 0 0.982 Villanova 120.3 86.8 5 0 0.977 Wisconsin 127.1 93.0 5 1 0.973 Gonzaga 124.2 93.2 4 1 0.965 Iowa St. 120.4 92.5 4 1 0.954 Baylor 115.8 89.8 5 1 0.949 Wichita St. 116.5 92.1 4 1 0.937 North Carolina 113.1 90.3 4 3 0.929 Maryland 120.3 96.7 3 1 0.925 Texas 106.0 85.4 3 2 0.923 Oklahoma 105.2 85.6 3 3 0.915 Arizona 109.2 88.9 5 1 0.914 Utah 103.9 88.6 2 2 0.861

I'm certainly not saying that this alternative version of the rankings is perfect. Virginia is a little high because of their blowout win against a good Harvard squad. But every one of these teams is ranked in the polls, and they deserve to be.

-Baylor is a little bit of an unknown, even in this group. They have five wins against Top 80 squads, but no wins against the truly elite yet.

-North Carolina has played seven games against Top 80 opponents. They may only be 4-3 in those games, but they've certainly challenged themselves.

Might be playing like a tournament team, but not a ranked team:

Team Adj Off Adj Def W L Pyth South Carolina 102.1 88.3 1 3 0.843 VCU 111.8 96.7 3 3 0.842 San Diego St. 103.0 89.3 3 3 0.838 Georgia 107.3 93.0 2 3 0.837 Indiana 118.9 103.4 3 2 0.833 SMU 104.0 90.5 2 3 0.832 Georgetown 109.2 95.3 1 3 0.826 Arkansas 113.4 99.2 2 2 0.823 California 98.4 87.0 2 2 0.806 Connecticut 99.4 87.9 1 4 0.805 Xavier 115.0 101.9 2 3 0.802 Oklahoma St. 102.3 91.0 2 2 0.794 Kansas 106.0 94.7 5 2 0.785

-VCU and San Diego St. will probably be ranked again eventually.

-South Carolina is a weird outlier. They look good here because they lost by 5 points or less to Akron, Charlotte, and Baylor, and they absolutely crushed Oklahoma St. But we really need to see more of that team.

-SMU will probably play better now that Markus Kennedy is eligible.

-Kansas has five quality wins at this point, but it is worth noting that Kansas is the luckiest team in the Top 100 according to Kenpom.com. When Kansas has lost, they've been blown out. And when they've beaten good teams, it has usually been very close. The Jayhawks overall performance suggests that they should have one or two more losses.

Shaky in this Year's Key Moments

Team Adj Off Adj Def W L Pyth Alabama 110.8 99.8 1 3 0.768 Georgia St. 99.5 90.0 1 3 0.762 Temple 100.1 90.8 2 4 0.755 Old Dominion 98.3 89.3 3 1 0.750 UTEP 100.8 92.1 1 4 0.738 BYU 110.3 101.2 1 3 0.729 Stanford 108.5 99.8 1 3 0.723 Butler 97.9 90.3 2 3 0.717 Mississippi 107.8 99.9 3 3 0.706 Florida 103.6 96.0 0 4 0.706 Michigan St. 108.7 101.1 0 4 0.697 NC State 104.2 97.0 2 3 0.696 St. F. Austin 103.9 96.8 1 3 0.692 Illinois 101.2 94.5 1 3 0.688 Pittsburgh 116.3 109.2 1 3 0.675

-Temple might be a different team now that Jesse Morgan and Devin Coleman are eligible. And I suspect Pittsburgh will eventually start playing better now that Cameron Wright is healthy.

-Old Dominion is actually 3-0 against the Top 80, but they have a mysterious 19 point loss to Illinois St. that has to factor into their rating.

-Florida and Michigan St. were ranked in the preseason, but neither team has a win against a team in the Pomeroy Top 100 right now.

Unimpressive

Team Adj Off Adj Def W L Pyth Syracuse 104.0 98.0 2 4 0.664 Iowa 97.8 92.7 1 4 0.651 Providence 103.4 98.0 3 3 0.648 Oregon 104.2 100.2 1 3 0.613 Louisiana Tech 105.6 102.3 0 4 0.590 Arizona St. 108.4 105.0 0 5 0.589 Texas A&M 105.2 101.9 1 3 0.589 G. Washington 92.9 90.4 1 3 0.575 Kansas St. 104.1 102.2 1 4 0.552 Michigan 98.5 97.1 2 5 0.541 Cincinnati 94.9 94.9 1 3 0.500 Green Bay 96.5 96.5 1 3 0.499 Creighton 99.9 100.5 1 4 0.485 Tulsa 104.0 106.7 1 4 0.426 Miami FL 101.2 104.7 2 3 0.405 Colorado 89.8 94.4 0 4 0.360 UCLA 94.1 101.7 0 4 0.291 Memphis 86.1 99.5 0 4 0.159

All of the teams in this last group are ranked in the Top 80 of the Pomeroy rankings. But these teams are only ranked in the Top 80 because his rankings still incorporate preseason expectations, or because these teams have been beating up on cupcakes. These teams all have losses to bad teams or have done poorly in their key games.

-Miami has some quality wins, but they are being punished for the 28 point home loss to Eastern Kentucky.

-Providence is probably the most interesting case here. They were brilliant against Miami FL, Rhode Island, and Notre Dame, and horrible against Kentucky, Boston College, and Brown. I'd personally give them a little more credit for the Florida St. and UMass games, but those teams haven't done much so far and aren't currently in the Top 80.

-Colorado, UCLA, and Memphis have been flat-out terrible against quality competition this year.