Transit plans for Scarborough — be they LRT or subway — are fatally flawed because they cost too much and will deliver too few riders, says a comprehensive new study obtained by the Star.

And the downtown relief subway line — the TTC’s number one transit priority — is a multi-billion-dollar waste of money that could be avoided by creating a $100-million GO Transit shuttle service, says the report done for the Neptis Foundation, a think-tank on Canadian urban issues operating in Toronto.

Related transit stories:

· Use GO trains instead of building downtown relief line, report suggests

· Scarborough subway has ‘no real benefits,’ report author says

· Scrap ‘fashion accessory’ Finch and Sheppard LRTs, says report

Metrolinx, the provincial agency charged with delivering transit improvements over 25 years, should do a “course correction” or it will flush billions down the drain and fail to reach its goal of doubling transit ridership by 2033.

The 144-page report comes a day before an advisory panel is to tell the provincial government how to fund Metrolinx’s $50-billion transit makeover in the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton.

It’s the first real independent review of Metrolinx’s big plans. If only half the report’s findings are correct, it serves as a wakeup call for the agency to assert itself instead of being overly influenced by transit politics, which have ramped up since Rob Ford became mayor.

Scarborough has been a battle ground for transit plans since Ford unilaterally cancelled the planned Transit City LRT vision and said he would only back “subways, subways, subways.”

City council, the provincial government and the federal government have acquiesced and backed a subway plan to replace the aging Scarborough RT.

Environmental studies are to follow, but the report urges a re-think of the plans before the city makes a huge mistake that will sour the public’s mind when they see little improvement from expensive transit projects.

The Scarborough subway requires a special property tax increase for three straight years, and property tax payments that will compound for 30 years.

To proceed with Metrolinx’s Big Move plans as proposed is to “set transit back 25 years,” says report author Michael Schabas, an international transit planner with experience in Vancouver, Toronto, London and Germany.

The report recommends that Metrolinx:

Link the Scarborough RT and the existing underused Sheppard subway into a single automated system, using a modern automatic light rail transit (ALRT) technology similar to Vancouver’s Skytrain.

Scrap the Downtown Relief Line, as “there’s little chance the benefits of this scheme will offset even half its cost,” pegged at $3.2 billion for phase one.

Axe the planned Finch West LRT, replacing it with a bus rapid transit line.

Be more aggressive with plans to electrify GO service and implement 15-minute, all-day service on all GO lines. This is the “backbone” of regional travel and the only way to take significant number of cars off the road.

Modify plans for the Eglinton Crosstown line, switching technology to ALRT and elevating the line above ground once it emerges from the tunnel east of Laird Dr. Also, save bundles of cash by reducing the number of stations along Eglinton.

Increase speed and cut costs of the planned Yonge subway extension to Richmond Hill by reducing the number of stations to two from six. Developers should build the intervening stops, if they redevelop sites along the route.

Of the numerous projects under study or approval from Metrolinx, only a few should proceed as proposed, the report says.

These are the Pearson Airport express to Union Station, the subway extension to Vaughan, the Hurontario LRT in Mississauga and the Mississauga-Dundas BRT.

The decline of transit planning in Toronto has international transit observers scratching their heads, Schabas says. After being a world leader in the 1960s, experts are asking: how did “Toronto get its head so screwed up?”

“Transit planners don’t like building subway lines with no riders. If Toronto gets this wrong, it will set transit back another 25 years,” he said.

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Scarborough residents may think they want a subway, but what they want is a quick way downtown and transit that will attract enough riders to take cars off the road. They opt for subway because they think it will zip them downtown. But the proposed subway trip from the Town Centre to downtown will only be five minutes faster than the LRT, and that is because there are fewer stops.

Transit planners could build a better interchange at the Kennedy station — for a tiny fraction of the subway cost — and improve the commuting experience without overbuilding.

The subway proposal itself won’t make the trip any faster and is so expensive you’ll never get the trains up to Malvern, says Schabas, who’s worked for Vancouver’s Skytrain system but now lives in England.

“It’s a complete waste of money to build a new tunnel” for a Scarborough subway to replace the RT,” he said.

Instead, use automated trains up the current Scarborough RT line to the Town Centre. The line would split northeast up to Malvern; the western link would end up at the Sheppard subway at Don Mills, riding an elevated platform above Highway 401 before veering north.

Once at Don Mills Rd., the trains would continue in the Sheppard subway tunnel, retrofitted to accommodate the new ALRT trains. Total cost would be less than $2 billion, while the proposed Scarborough subway alone is close to $3 billion. Very little tunneling would be needed.

The report is also not kind to the idea of LRTs in the corridors the TTC has envisioned — calling the accompanying images of European-style streetscapes a “fantasy.”

With narrow streets, too many stops, high construction costs and the long distances to fast, regional services, the LRTs won’t have a discernible impact on congestion. And there is no way of knowing if development and growth will follow the lines.

Schabas says Metrolinx must focus on making GO Transit the equivalent of a regional subway system — one that provides fast service over longer distances with few stops. Without this, Metrolinx has no prayer of doubling ridership to 4.2 million by 2033. Current plans would leave the system 800,000 riders short, the report estimates.

“The entire GO system can be upgraded to a 15-minute all-day two-way service with 25 per cent faster journey times for less money than the cost of the Phase 1 of the Downtown Relief Line,” the report states.

For example, Express GO rail relief service, with interchanges at Kennedy, Main, Dundas West and Kipling subway stations “can provide similar relief to the subway at a fraction of the cost.”

The two recommendations that will generate the most controversy are the high-profile topics of the downtown relief line and the Scarborough subway.

TTC boss Andy Byford says the Yonge subway line is overcrowded and must be relieved before even more passengers are squeezed onto the line. The report agrees, but chooses a little discussed option.

GO Trains from northwest areas of the region currently travel into Union Station and sit idle until the return trip at night. GO could use these trains and drivers to shuttle passengers from a new TTC-GO interchange at the TTC Main station, which is 250 metres from the GO Danforth station.

Construction might cost $100 million and be ready for service in just two to three years. The trip would take 10 minutes and attract many passengers heading downtown, avoiding the many stops along the Danforth line and the transfer at Yonge.

Royson James usually appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Email: rjames@thestar.ca

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