Pelissero: Broncos face quite a financial dilemma if Brock Osweiler keeps winning

Tom Pelissero | USA TODAY Sports

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A lot can change for Denver Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler over the next five weeks and into the playoffs, whether his play keeps Peyton Manning on the sideline or not.

But there’s no question the Broncos are staring at a complicated negotiation with a young player at the most important position who will have no more than 11 NFL starts (and potentially as few as seven) before Osweiler’s rookie contract expires in March.

“Look, if he’s a good player, it’s a good problem,” a high-ranking NFL executive for another team told USA TODAY Sports, speaking on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. “But it’ll be very, very difficult to navigate on multiple fronts. Once he shows he can be the guy, you’re in a tough spot.”

Granted, the Broncos know Osweiler, 25, better than anyone. They took him in the second round (57th overall) of the 2012 draft and have 3½ years of practice tape. Still, that's not much of a sample size.

“They’re the only ones who are going to know if he’s their guy or not,” another NFL executive said. “But if he lights it up, and he thinks he’s your future, and you’ve already been there with him — I won’t say you’re going to pay him top market (value), but you’re going to have to pay him.”

Even the Washington Redskins have 20 starts (and counting) to judge Kirk Cousins, who’s also in a contract year and, like Osweiler, sure to have suitors if he hits the market in a quarterback-starved league. Sunday’s start againt the San Diego Chargers will only be Osweiler’s third.

In 2008, the Green Bay Packers gave Aaron Rodgers a five-year, $63.52 million extension after just seven starts and three years of sitting behind Brett Favre. That was a unique situation, though, and Rodgers still had another year left on his rookie deal.

A better comparison for Osweiler is Matt Cassel, who sat for three years with the New England Patriots before replacing injured Tom Brady in Week 1 of the 2008 season. Cassel parlayed 15 starts into a franchise tag, a trade to the Kansas City Chiefs and a new six-year, $63 million deal.

If the 2016 salary cap is $150 million, the quarterback tag would cost about $19.6 million. The Broncos could absorb that easily enough by cutting Manning and his $19 million salary for next season. But another tag for Osweiler in 2017 would cost $23.52 million — 120% of Osweiler’s previous salary — for a two-year average of $21.56 million, higher than all but three current quarterback deals.

Another dynamic to consider in Denver: Pass rusher Von Miller is unsigned and may become the NFL’s highest-paid defender. There will be pressure on Miller and Osweiler not to sign early, since the Broncos can only tag one of them and leverage would grow as the February deadline approaches.

“If they’ve got to franchise (Osweiler), they’re dead,” the first executive said. “You’re going to lose all your leverage.”

One alternative is the transition tag, which would cost about $17 million. It’s unlikely another team would touch that with such an inexperienced player, though it's more enticing than the more expensive franchise tag, which would also cost an outside suitor two first-round picks to sign a player. There’s no telling what kind of offer sheet might come in from another team, given the scarcity of the position, and the Broncos wouldn't get any compensation if they lost Osweiler in the transition-tag scenario.

A two- or three-year “bridge” deal probably makes the most sense for Osweiler. If he keeps playing well, the first executive estimated the starting point for the club would be in the range of $15 million a year — just inside the top 20 of current quarterback deals — but it’s all educated guesswork for now.

All this is irrelevant if Osweiler flops down the stretch or the Broncos stand by Manning, who turns 40 in March and has given them no reason to do so this season. Given the Broncos haven’t locked up Osweiler already may suggest the plan is to choose neither and move on through the draft — or at least it was before Osweiler got on the field.

Do offensive coaches have leg up for next head jobs?

Of the seven head coaching jobs that opened after last season, six were filled by defensive coaches. That could flip this year, not only because of how the candidate pool was thinned out, but because of investments in young quarterbacks by some of the teams potetially looking.

The Tennessee Titans have Marcus Mariota, the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft. The Miami Dolphins have Ryan Tannehill, who signed a four-year, $77 million contract extension in May. The Indianapolis Colts (Andrew Luck) could join them in the market come Black Monday.

Among the offensive coordinators expected to draw interest are the Chicago Bears' Adam Gase, Cincinnati Bengals' Hue Jackson, New England Patriots' Josh McDaniels, San Diego Chargers' Frank Reich, Atlanta Falcons' Kyle Shanahan and Carolina Panthers' Mike Shula.

Former Buffalo Bills coach Doug Marrone, now the assistant head coach/offensive line for the Jacksonville Jaguars, also figures to be in the mix. Other assistant head coaches with offensive backgrounds who had interviews last year include the Seattle Seahawks' Tom Cable and Buffalo’s Anthony Lynn.

Still, it's an oversimplification to say a team with a young franchise quarterback will hire an offensive coach. The one team in a similar spot last year, the Oakland Raiders with Derek Carr, went with a defensive coach, Jack Del Rio. The San Francisco 49ers, with Colin Kaepernick, promoted defensive line coach Jim Tomsula.

But Gase, Jackson and McDaniels all figure to be among the hottest names this year, along with defensive coordinators Teryl Austin (Detroit Lions) and Sean McDermott (Carolina), among others. If the New Orleans Saints and Sean Payton part ways, he’s another offensive mind to put at the top of some lists.

Other names to remember include: Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley, New York Giants offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, UCLA coach Jim Mora, former Detroit coach Jim Schwartz, Stanford coach David Shaw, former Falcons coach Mike Smith and Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.

Given that those close to search processes believe there could be seven or more openings again, it wouldn’t be a surprise if one or two off-the-grid candidates emerge as well.

Odell Beckham's secret to success

Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. made his latest one-handed highlight catch last weekend against Redskins cornerback Will Blackmon, who’d like everyone — namely officials — to keep an eye on what Beckham’s doing with his other hand in the future.

“The new thing when you start watching film is all the receivers now, when they’re like even with you, they pull through to gain separation,” Blackmon said after the Redskins’ 20-14 win. “The refs never call it. It’s genius. … That’s like the new trick. (But) if you grab: flag.”

Slow down the tape, and it’s easy to see what Blackmon’s talking about. He has his left shoulder in front of Beckham around the 10-yard line. Then, Beckham gets his right hand on the front of Blackmon’s hip, simultaneously propelling himself and slowing Blackmon.

In real time, it looks like it’s just part of Beckham’s stride. And the “pull” happens several steps before Beckham lunges to make the catch in the end zone, before what would normally be considered a push-off.

Blackmon’s not even mad. It’s amazing how good Beckham is at it.

“He does a great job, every time,” Blackmon said. “Usually, he’s fast enough that he’ll just beat you up top. But if you’re even, he’ll pull through.”

Inside runs

— At the league meeting in Texas this week, NFL teams were given a range for the 2016 salary cap of $148 million to $153 million — a $5 million to $10 million rise. One reason it may not spike as much as in 2015: the performance-base pay delayed in 2013 will be accounted for next year, increasing the share of revenue earmarked for benefits instead of salaries.

— Most 2015 cap room remaining, per NFLPA records: Jaguars ($33.4 million), Titans ($24.5M), Raiders ($13.8M), 49ers ($12.7M), Giants ($12M), Dolphins ($10.4M). No rush to use it. Teams can roll over whatever is left at the end of the league year in March.

— One consequence of the NFL’s vote to allowing trading of compensatory draft picks, beginning in 2017: The regular picks at the top of Rounds 4-7 figure to lose some value, because they no longer surround the comp-pick dead zone at the end of Rounds 3-6. There won’t be the same level of competition to get into those spots.

— Earning a playoff bye also means your assistant coaches can interview for head jobs a week sooner. So, McDermott and Shula would be available to interview on wild-card weekend, barring an epic collapse by the Panthers. Assistant coaches for teams that win in the wild-card round can interview the following weekend.

— Seahawks coach Pete Carroll pointed out his team and the Minnesota Vikings rely on a similar formula. (Read: play defense and run the football.) They also share a weakness. Whichever undermanned offensive line holds up better against the other team's talented front figures to have the edge Sunday.

— The firings of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in Miami and special teams coordinator Kevin Spencer in San Diego makes it six coordinator changes on top of two head coach dismissals this season. Three of those are related — the Dolphins previously canned coach Joe Philbin and defensive boss Kevin Coyle — but that’s a lot of in-season turnover, with five weeks still to go.

— Only team above .500 left on the unbeaten Panthers’ schedule: the sinking Falcons, whom they host Dec. 13 and visit two weeks later. The Panthers also visit New Orleans (4-7) and the Giants (5-6) and wrap at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6).

Tom’s top 10

(Last week’s ranking in parentheses)

1. Carolina Panthers (2): Path to 16-0 heads to New Orleans, where rout launched 2014 surge.

2. New England Patriots (1): Injuries keep piling up, but they’re still the AFC favorite.

3. Arizona Cardinals (3): Heat is on rookie RB David Johnson with backfield banged up.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (4): Beat Cleveland, and they can wrap division title Dec. 13 vs. Steelers.

5. Denver Broncos (6): RB C.J. Anderson’s re-emergence makes a difference for that offense.

6. Minnesota Vikings (8): Don’t overlook the play of 37-year-old CB Terence Newman.

7. Seattle Seahawks (9): Net yards allowed per pass play: 1st in 2013, 3rd in 2014, 11th in 2015.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5): Facing Colts’ Matt Hasselbeck means a Super Bowl XL QB rematch.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (10): OLB Justin Houston’s hyperextended knee could slow the pass rush.

10. Green Bay Packers (7): Bad as it has looked of late, they still have QB Aaron Rodgers.

(Note: Does not factor in the result of Thursday’s game)

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Follow Tom Pelissero on Twitter @TomPelissero

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