The Bali negotiations, meant to lay the groundwork for a successor to the Kyoto Protocols, are nearing their end, and the picture of what will emerge has become more clear. Despite an impassioned plea by the Secretary-General of the UN and strong backing from the nations of the European Union, the US and China have succeeded in preventing any agreements on hard targets for future carbon reductions. Progress has been made, however, in addressing some of the concerns of the developing world.

Although the Bali negotiations began last week, many high-level officials are arriving now, after the preliminary work has been completed. Ban Kai-Moon, Secretary-General of the UN, spoke to the gathered delegates earlier today, calling climate change, "the moral challenge of our generation." He presented inaction as a threat to future inhabitants of the planet: "Succeeding generations depend on us," he said. "We cannot rob our children of their future."

To a large extent, however, chances for any definitive action had already passed by the time he spoke. The US delegation entered these negotiations with the intention of blocking any hard limits on carbon emissions, and they carried the day over the objections of the European Union and most developing nations. This position is in keeping with the Bush administration's promotion of long-term aspirational goals, rather than strict limits.

When talking to reporters after his speech, Ban apparently accepted that setting limits at this stage, "may be too ambitions," according to the Associated Press. "Practically speaking," he said, "this will have to be negotiated down the road."

With no movement on that front, attention has shifted towards a second major goal of the Bali meeting, aid to the developing world. The New York Times is reporting that more significant progress has been made on that front. Kyoto had set up a mechanism for funding adaptation work in the developing world, but the effort was chronically underfunded and developing nations have found it difficult to get projects approved. The new agreement streamlines the approval process and levies a tax on carbon trading markets to fund the program. Although this is still unlikely to cover anywhere close to the predicted costs the developing world will face due to climate change, the Times suggests that this agreement is being viewed by those nations as a sign that their concerns are at least being treated seriously.

Given the stated positions of major participants going into these talks, these results are fairly predictable. Much of the hard work involved in forging a binding agreement has been put off to the future. Perhaps the most significant consequence of the Bali negotiations is that any agreement on binding emissions limits is unlikely to be completed prior to the end of the Bush administration. Many of the presidential candidates appear far more willing to consider mandated limits on carbon emissions, raising the possibility that the negotiations that have been put off to the future will be less contentious when that future arrives.

UPDATE: The BBC is reporting that the European Union is threatening to retaliate for the US' intransigence at Bali by boycotting future climate talks hosted by the White House. These talks are intended to set the aspirational goals for emissions curbs favored by the US; the absence of major emitters would make them largely pointless. The report suggests that this threat may simply be an EU negotiating ploy, but many have interpreted the Washington talks as little more than an attempt to undermine Bali in the first place.