As a reader of Canucks Army, I was especially interested in the Benning Eye for the Stats Guy pieces MoneyPuck published.

When the Florida Panthers snagged MoneyPuck from Canucks Army and I joined in his stead, I promised that I’d carry the torch.

Which brings us to this year’s edition of Benning Eye for the Stats Guy

I’ve had it confirmed that Canucks General Manager Jim Benning had went down the 401 to catch the Mississauga Steelheads take on the Erie Otters this past Friday. Both teams boast a healthy crop of first time draft eligible players likely to cross the stage in June.

Among the two, the Steelheads possess the most high-end talent, with two players in particular jumping off the page as first round talents. The Otters, meanwhile, possess a bevvy of mid round bets.

For this edition, when we use pGPS, it is based on last season productions due to the smaller sample sizes available for this season. Later in the season, we will convert to the current season.

Owen Tippett (Mississauga #74)

The top 2017 draft prospect of the game, Owen Tippett is likely the player that Benning has his eye on most. In the discussion as a top 10 pick and ranked as the 5th best prospect by Jeff Marek, Tippett is an intriguing prospect who has started off the season fantastically. Corey Pronman has a scouting report (paywall – which I recommend to subscribe to) on Tippett from October:

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Tippett is a fun player to watch due to his fantastic skating. He measures in at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, but jets around the ice like a smurf on skates. He couples that with good hands and a plus shot, which combine to make him a deadly offensive force. Tippett could afford to go east-west a little more, but in his second OHL season I expect a ton of shots on goal — and in turn goals.

On Friday night, that skill was on display. Finishing the night with 2 goals, 5 shots on goal and a +2. His first goal:

The aforementioned speed is on display here too, as he takes the loose puck in the defensive zone and quickly gains speed. Erie’s Darren Raddysh, who is in his fourth full season in the OHL, is caught slightly flatfooted but the gap between Tippet and Raddysh in the Steelheads zone should’ve been enough keep pace, but he is quickly in trouble. Before they even reach the Otters blue line, Raddysh has pivoted to try to keep up, but Tippett is gone. The 2017 prospect Tippett then tucks it in past the goalie.

Tippett’s second goal of the game wasn’t a highlight reel play like his first tally, but he shows high-end anticipation and patience waiting for a loose puck to come his way. He goes around the net, and appears to be trying to make a hard pass to his teammate in front, but gets the lucky bounce for the second goal.

As of today, Tippett has 15 goals and 5 assists in 16 games this season. He leads the Steelheads in points and goals, with a five point lead on 2015 draft picks Nathan Bastian (2nd round pick – NJD) and Michael McLeod (1st round pick – NJD). He is currently tied for second in goals in the OHL and tied for second amongst 2017 draft eligible forwards in the OHL in PPG.

Using Tippett’s production from last season, 14.85% of his comparable players went onto becoming NHL regulars. But he has already passed those totals, so it’s safe to assume that pGPS number will climb as the year progresses.

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Nic Hague (Mississauga #41)

Ranked 10th in Jeff Marek’s latest rankings, Nic Hague is a late 1998 birthday, which means he is first time eligible for the 2017 NHL Entry draft. Corey Pronman provides a great scouting report on the Kitchener, Ontario native:

A 6-foot-6, well-rounded defenseman, Hague’s skating isn’t explosive, but he skates well enough. He also moves the puck competently, wins a ton of battles, and understands the position in his own end. When I saw him last season, I was skeptical about how much offensive upside he had, but he has looked strong moving the puck at the start of this season.

Hague was held off the scoresheet on Friday night, finishing the night with 1 shot on goal and a -1. He was on the ice for a couple of goals against, the first one being:

As you can see, he loses the puck battle in the corner, then chases the Otter forward. Leaving his partner outnumbered in front, which results in a goal against.

The second goal against was an odd one and Hague does bear some of the responsibility. From the beginning, it appears that the Steelheads have the numbers advantage with Bastian between the two attacking forwards, but it quickly dissolves with Raddysh (Erie #25) joining the rush. The Steelheads then get passive, with Hague taking Girhiny. It appears Hague has him tied up – but Girhiny gets his stick free and taps it in.

Not a great performance for the rear-guard, but it appears to have been an off game for him.

With 15 points in 16 games, Hague leads the Steelheads defence in points by 5 and is right behind the aforementioned Tippett, Bastian and McLeod. Hague is tied for first in points amongst first-time draft eligible OHL defenceman. While leading the entire OHL in goal scoring by a defenceman.

When we use pGPS for Hague on his D-1 season, an astounding 55.6% of his matches went onto becoming NHL regulars. That is due to Hague playing the full season in the OHL during his 17 year old season, and seeing some impressive production of 14 goals and 10 assists in 2015-16. Given that he is just under PPG at this point in his draft year – pGPS would likely look very fondly on him.

Ivan Lodnia (Erie # 27)

Hovering around being a late first or early second round pick, Ivan Lodnia is an interesting prospect. Regarded as a fast playmaker who has a nose for the net, Lodnia will need to add some strength and improve his two-way game to take the next step.

Measuring in at 5’9″ and 172 lbs – he appears to be another player who has tonnes of skill but isn’t blessed with “NHL size”. He did score the 7th goal of the night for the Otters.

Following up on his own missed shot, he is able to tuck the past the sprawling net minder.

Lodnia has 17 points (9-8-17) in 16 games, which is good for fourth best on the Erie Otters behind Taylor Raddysh, Alex Debrincat and Kyle Maksimovich.

Using pGPS to look at Lodnia, a very impressive 23.5% went onto becoming NHL regulars when we use his D-1 season. He had 16 goals and 23 assists for the Otters last season, and is well on his way to beating those numbers.

Other 2017 Eligible players:

Scoley Dow (Mississauga #17) – +1

Aiden McFarland (Mississauga #18) – -2, with 1 SOG

Brett Neumann (Erie #13) – 5 PIM (D-1 pGPS = 5.0%)

Gera Poddubnyi (Erie #39) – one assist, +3 and 1 shot on goal

Cade Robinson (Erie #46) – 1 SOG

The players that do not have a pGPS beside their name is because they had rather uneventful D-1 seasons, thus it isn’t fair to rate them off that. Ideally Benning will scout these teams again, and we can take a more in-depth look at them when we using the draft season as a larger sample size.

Notes:

Canucks 2014 6th round pick Kyle Pettit ended the night with two goals – both were caused by him being the screen/net front presence. Pettit is no longer Canucks property after they did not sign him before June 1, 2016.

2016 Young Stars Camp invitee for the Canucks, Kyle Maksimovich had 2 assists for Erie on Friday night. He is someone to keep an eye for the Canucks going forward, whether they view him as a player worth selecting after his D+1 season, or continued invites to the various rookie events.





