Turkey's Erdogan: His own worst enemy?

Yasemin Ergin | Special for USA TODAY

ISTANBUL — At a gathering in a park in Istanbul, dozens of people communicate with hand signals so as not to disturb the neighbors.

At another, they quietly discuss Turkey's political future. At Taksim Square, people stand silently to avoid provoking police, but their message is clear: "We are not done."

The refusal by protesters across Turkey to go home after weeks of demonstrations has posed the biggest threat to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan since he took office more than a decade ago.

His violent crackdown against them has damaged his political standing and international stature, affected his future plans for Turkey and already significantly impacted Turkish society, analysts say.

"Erdogan still refuses to listen to the people protesting, and he still isn't admitting any mistakes," said political analyst Ahmet Insel at Galatasaray University in Istanbul. "Instead, he used all his power against them and still didn't manage to quiet them — but they have managed to somewhat wear down his authority."

"The new form of social protest movement that has grown out of the Gezi Park protests are unique in Turkish history and will have a lasting impact on the society," he added.

Erdogan's miscalculation against what started as a peaceful protest movement by a group of environmentalists trying to save a park earlier this month is startling given his reputation as a wily politician, analysts say.

Beginning early in his career, Erdogan has successfully taken on immensely powerful opponents. He won against Istanbul's secularist elites who tried to stop him from becoming mayor of the city in 1994. He overcame the attempts of the Turkish constitutional court in 2001 to ban his Islamic-conservative party, the Justice and Development Party, which went on to a surprise win in parliamentary elections a year later.

And he dared to take on the Turkish military, the main power broker in the country since the Turkish Republic was founded in 1923 and plotter behind three successful government coups. Erdogan orchestrated prosecutions that jailed 330 top military officers accused of plotting a fourth coup against him.

Yet some say his worst enemy is himself: Famed for his stubbornness, intolerance for dissent and his own sense of aggrandizement. They say that explains his heavy-handed approach to peaceful protesters who only wanted to save some park trees: they defied his demands.

"In the last couple of weeks, Erdogan clearly proved that he cannot lead Turkey into its future," said Koray Caliskan, associate professor of political science at Istanbul's Bogazici University. "Turkey is a Western style, pluralistic democracy and in such a democracy, you can't attack entire residential areas with pepper spray and expect to get away with it."

"Within a couple of days, Erdogan destroyed what was known to be his greatest achievement," he added. "He spent years weakening the power of the army and separating it from politics. But as soon as protests against him got out of hand, he threatened to use the army against the protesters."

Some describe the Turkish leader who grew up in Kasimpasa, a rough, working-class neighborhood of Istanbul, as a sharp, self-made man who put himself through school and excelled in the treacherous world of Turkey politics.

Erdogan also oversaw changes to improve the economy.

The Turkish economy has grown 300% in the last decade and rampant inflation brought under control, earning praise from industry and businesses. His support for Muslim values was welcomed by many who felt the faith was sidelined for too long in politics.

Erdogan has also taken steps to resolve the long-lasting Kurdish conflict and sought to make Turkey a player on the world stage to rival Egypt's influence in the region.

Yet Erdogan has also viciously cracked down on dissent. He has pushed to put an increasingly Islamist face on Turkey — whose constitution enshrines secularism — rolling back liberties Turks have enjoyed for years. A bill creating far-reaching restrictions on alcohol was hastily passed last month, and Erdogan has also publicly stated women should have at least three children.

Internationally, he ended a long-standing cordial relationship with Israel with insults and demands for an apology for the deaths of Turks who tried to run an Israeli naval blockade and attacked the commandos who boarded their ship to stop them. His outreach to a jailed Kurdish terrorist leader has also annoyed many Turks. He has lauded Hamas, the U.S.-designated terrorist group, and the European Union has delayed talks on Turkey's request for membership.

"His party has lost the 50% support he keeps talking about," Caliskan said. "We have about 2.5 million people who took to the streets against him all over the country. If we add the ones that stayed home and showed their anger by banging pots and simply voicing support for the protesters, that number goes up to 10 million."

While the protests began as a small environmental movement to save a park, they grew as a reaction to these policies that many say interfere with all aspects of people's lives and threaten Turkey's democracy.

"He had so many chances to end the protests peacefully," said Metin Acar, a 43-year-old businessman and supporter of the protest movement: "Instead he called us terrorists and looters, belittled us and agitated his police and supporters against us. But instead of weakening us, he made us stronger and more determined — we are not afraid of him anymore and we will not stop."

Analysts say the situation is changing how politicians view voters.

"Erdogan's party is still the party that would win elections if there were any today," Insel said. "He might not feel that he needs to change his behavior but his local representatives, the mayors in the cities affected by the protests, will definitely listen to people's demands much more carefully than before, to avoid further unrest. And in the long run this will likely cause them to start opposing Erdogan's ideas."

Istanbul's Mayor Kadir Topbas, also a member of the AKP, reflected this new attitude during a recent speech.

"From now on, every project affecting the city will be shared and discussed with the people, even if we decide to change the location of a bus stop, we will ask the people's opinion about it," he said.