The fourth edition of CFP playoff selection committee's rankings is out. Here are five observations about the latest rundown.

1. The Oklahoma-Notre Dame debate should go the Sooners' way.

It's possible the only real drama on Selection Day will be between two teams -- Oklahoma and Notre Dame -- that finish their seasons this week. But the latest rankings suggest it will be difficult for Notre Dame to catch Oklahoma if both teams win this Saturday. The Irish, buoyed mostly by a great loss (to top-ranked Clemson) than great wins, have a signature win opportunity at No. 9 Stanford. But so do the Sooners, who visit No. 11 Oklahoma State and already have a road win against No. 7 Baylor and a home victory against No. 19 TCU.

Notre Dame ideally needed to stay ahead of Oklahoma in these rankings, or not fall too far behind. Not only did the Irish slip three spots behind the Sooners, but the gap between their upcoming opponents is only two spots. Their sluggish performance against Boston College hurt them in the committee room. They might need to beat Stanford convincingly.

This is a very good sign for the Sooners. Irish eyes are certainly not smiling tonight.

2. The Big 12 can finally celebrate a bit.

A back-loaded Big 12 schedule finally seems to be resonating in the committee room. Oklahoma is in great shape for playoff selection if it wins the Bedlam game, and one-loss Baylor isn't out of the mix, either. The Bears rose three spots to No. 7 after their impressive win in Stillwater. They have two games left, including another notable road opportunity Friday at TCU, which fell only one spot after pushing Oklahoma to the brink.

Baylor probably needs Notre Dame to lose to Stanford and, just to be safe, some chaos in the league title games. Stanford losing to UCLA or USC would help, as would Clemson losing to North Carolina. But the Big 12, which has struggled to impress the committee, can feel a bit better about its chances with two teams still alive for a playoff spot.

3. The committee is undervaluing Michigan State.

Boosting Oklahoma into the top four is understandable. Leaving Michigan State out is tough to justify. The Spartans might not be dominant, but they have the best profile in the country: road wins against No. 8 Ohio State and No. 10 Michigan, plus a Week 2 victory against No. 17 Oregon, a rapidly improving team.

No squad can match that right now. Oklahoma can if it beats Oklahoma State this week, but Michigan State undoubtedly belongs in the top four. The good news: If the Spartans win out and beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship, they will take the Hawkeyes' spot in the playoff.

4. If Navy stumbles, the golden ticket is up for grabs.

Not surprisingly, Navy remained the top-ranked Group of 5 team at No. 15. If the Midshipmen win out, they will go to a New Year's Six bowl. But what if they stumble this week at Houston, next week in the American Athletic title game or, gulp, Dec. 12 against Army? The golden ticket could go to several teams.

Toledo, which returned to the rankings at No. 24, could grab it by beating Western Michigan this week. Temple, left for dead after a loss to South Florida, could get it by winning the AAC. And Houston isn't out of it. Despite not being ranked this week, the Cougars can win the AAC by beating Navy at home and then Temple or South Florida in the conference title game.

5. The climb to the top four is too steep for North Carolina.

It's amazing to think a Power 5 team could defeat 10 conference foes, win its final 12 games and be left out of the playoff. But it's a harsh reality for North Carolina, which rose to only No. 14 after beating Virginia Tech in overtime for its 10th consecutive victory. The Heels remain behind three two-loss teams, including fellow ACC member Florida State. There simply isn't much respect for UNC's win streak, which includes two FCS opponents and no opponents ranked in the committee's top 25.

The ACC Coastal Division is killing UNC. So is the season-opening loss to 3-8 South Carolina. Even if the Heels win out and beat No. 1 Clemson in the ACC title game, they would need utter chaos to ensue to vault all the way into the top 4.