Map last updated at 7:00 p.m. March 13

Blizzard warnings are out for much of New Jersey as a late season nor'easter bears down on the Garden State.

But how much snow can you expect?

Click anywhere on the map above to see what the snowfall forecast is for your area. Each box contains a separate forecast issued by the National Weather Service for every 5 square kilometers in the northeast. We will update our map when the National Weather Service updates its forecasts.

Because forecasts are far from iron-clad, we've also developed the Bust-O-Meter, through which we display an analysis of forecast confidence as the storm nears.

Find that below, along with a look at our methodology.

Methodology



The Bust-O-Meter uses a weighted average of six locations in New Jersey for any given storm event. We take the official forecast of these locations and measure how far they are from the best and worst case scenarios published by the National Weather Service alongside the official forecast.





The wider the range between the official forecast and the best and worst case scenarios, the less confidence there is in the forecast. Generally, these ranges come down as the storm event gets closer and confidence increases. We put our measure on a 100 point scale to simplify it for readers.

This is experimental. It will be tweaked and expanded as time goes on.

Stephen Stirling may be reached at sstirling@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @sstirling. Find him on Facebook.