PC lead shrinks further in Ontario

Slim minority for PCs seen

TORONTO April 28th, 2016 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1157 Ontario voters, just fewer than 4-in-10 will vote for the Progressive Conservatives (39%), while just fewer will vote Liberal (34%) giving the opposition party a 5 point lead. One fifth will vote NDP (21%) and few will vote Green (5%) or for other parties (2%). These results are in comparison with last month, when the PCs had a 10 point lead over the Liberals (March 26, PC - 40%, Liberals - 30%). Among those who voted Liberal in 2014, significant proportions will vote either PC or NDP this time around (13% each). By the same token, a similar proportion of past NDP voters will support the Liberals this time (14%).

Near majority seen for PCs

If these results are projected up to the 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take 53, 1 seat less than required for a majority. In turn, the Liberals would capture 33 seats and the NDP 21 seats.

Wynne, Brown have static approvals, Horwath favourables decline

Premier Wynne has the approval of just one fifth (20%) of voters and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative, but stable, -47. Patrick Brown has the approval of just more than a quarter (27%) and his net score is a neutral +3 (due to the high level of voters who don’t know him enough to have an opinion - 48%). Andrea Horwath, on the other hand, has seen her consistently high approvals decay, from close to 4-in-10 in February (38%) to just more than a third last month (35%) and less than a third now (32%). Her net score is a neutral to positive +4, just down from +9 last month.

Of note, more than a third of Liberal voters do not approve of Premier Wynne (38%), while one seventh of PC voters do not support their Leader (14%). Among NDP voters, a similar proportion disapproves of the leader (13%).

Patrick Brown still preferred as Premier

Patrick Brown is seen as the leader who would make the best Premier (24%), while Wynne and Horwath are matched on this measure (15% each). The largest single group sees none of these three as a good premier (28%).

“Premier Wynne and Patrick Brown continue to underperform their parties in terms of voter approval, while Ms Horwath outperforms the NDP. Even so, Horwath’s usually sterling approval ratings have been starting to slip lately," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.