Trump will face new levels of scrutiny from Congress, but despite Democratic gains he looks in a strong position for 2020

The 2018 midterm election is still not entirely over. Ballots will still be counted in close races for days, if not weeks, to come. But there are already clear lessons to take from Tuesday night, when Democrats took control of the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years, but Republicans increased their majority in the Senate.

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Checks and balances are coming

Perhaps the most important result of the election will be that the Democrat Elijah Cummings will chair the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. The Trump administration will face a level of scrutiny from Congress that it has not yet faced. Democrats will have subpoena power and be able to even demand Trump’s tax returns. Trump has faced a plethora of scandals so far with relatively pliant Republican majorities in both chambers, but things will change with Democrats in control of the House.

The Senate will be confirming a lot of judges

Republicans netted three Senate seats on Tuesday, with Arizona and Montana still yet to be called. This means that Mitch McConnell will have a robust majority in 2019.

With Democrats in control of the House, there is a strong chance that Washington will face even more gridlock next year on most legislative priorities. But with a bigger Republican majority, McConnell will be able to comfortably confirm just about any nominee that Trump sends him and the Senate’s focus on filling the federal judiciary with a generation of conservative judges will continue.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Supporters of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez celebrate her midterm victory. Photograph: Andrew Kelly/Reuters

The ‘blue wave’ washes up in weird places

Democrats won seats in places like Oklahoma and South Carolina on Tuesday night in addition to their expected victories in suburban districts around urban centers. The result is that there will be several members of the new Democratic majority running for re-election in traditionally Republican areas that Trump won by double digits in 2016. This serves up an additional check on what the new but narrow Democratic majority will be able to do legislatively in the next two years.

Trump’s 2020 election map still looks OK

While Democrats made gains in some of the states that were part of the much vaunted “blue wall” in 2016, Trump is still in strong position in the swing states that gave him his electoral college victory.

Democrats lost governor’s races in Florida and Iowa that party operatives were feeling bullish about. Further, Democrats had an underwhelming performance in Ohio, where gubernatorial nominee Richard Cordray lost and incumbent senator Sherrod Brown won by only six points against a weak Republican. All are states that Barack Obama won twice but that Trump won in 2016, and are a indication that Republicans may have made lasting gains in those states.

However, Democrats did eke out a narrow win to beat Scott Walker in Wisconsin and comfortably won the governor’s office in Michigan.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Trump on the eve of the midterms. Photograph: Carlos Barría/Reuters

Progressive policy wins in some conservative states

A number of progressive ballot measures were passed on Tuesday in otherwise conservative states. A constitutional amendment to grant almost 1.5m ex-felons their voting rights passed in Florida, while Idaho, Nebraska and Utah all passed Medicaid expansion. All of those states backed Republicans for statewide office.

However, in Washington, a much vaunted proposal to implement carbon tax failed, an effort that had long been pushed by environmentalists.