washington county developments.JPG

An aerial view of Washington County from above the Portland Community College Rock Creek campus. The seven-county Portland area might grow by up to 725,000 people in the next 20 years, according to Metro estimates.

(Jamie Francis/The Oregonian)

The seven-county Portland area might grow by up to 725,000 people, topping the 3 million population mark by 2035, according to the most recent estimates from the regional government Metro.

This forecast might be at the foundation of next year's assessment of the Urban Growth Boundary expansion. The process allows the regional government to work with cities to plan development.

The metro area includes Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Clark, Skamania, Yamhill and Columbia counties and is expected to reach 2,343,000 people by next year, almost 600,000 more than in 1995.

Metro senior planner Ted Reid on Monday, June 9, briefed the Washington County Coordinating Committee, a group of mayors and other officials who meet every month to discuss transportation issues. The agency will release a detailed report on the population estimates in July.

Cities and private developers will have the biggest role in managing urban growth, Reid said, though Metro sets some guidelines. "We are providing the data that political leaders will use to make their decisions," he said.

The Urban Growth Boundary is assessed every six years, in a process that involves various levels of government and the public. This winter, the Oregon Legislature passed a land-use "grand bargain" to designate urban and rural reserves after the process got tangled in court.

In this new planning cycle, Metro is looking at urban growth in a brand new way, Reid said. In the past, the agency used to make population projections and then calculate, based on certain formulas, how many people would live in existing or redeveloped housing units, and how much land would be needed for new development.

Now, the agency takes aerial snapshots of every piece of land within the Urban Growth Boundary and analyzes their development or redevelopment potential one at a time.

Metro will focus on redevelopment to accommodate urban growth in the next two decades, he said.

Mayors reacted in a variety of ways.

"A seven-county snapshot doesn't help us at all," said Hillsboro Mayor Jerry Willey, adding that mayors need county-specific data in order to plan housing and employment. He also wondered how Metro saw urban density evolving in the next 20 years.

Willey said it's unrealistic for Metro to plan for new development in Damascus, a Clackamas County city that last year considered disincorporation.

Wilsonville Mayor Tim Knapp said if Damascus, a mostly rural area, were to develop, the region would need to foot a large infrastructure bill. "Where would they work?" Knapp said.

"We can't control where people live nor are we trying to," said Metro Councilor Kathryn Harrington. "We're just trying to help out our communities. It will constantly be part of the dynamic."

Metro staff will expand on these population estimates during a presentation before the Metro Council in July. In December, the council will decide whether to adopt these estimates as a basis for future planning.

-- Simina Mistreanu