See the figure below? 3,000,000,000,000. The number 3 followed by 12 zeroes. That is the burden the country will have to bear if all states waived farmer loans before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This is an estimate based on Merrill Lynch's calculation that such waivers will cost India 2 per cent of its 2015 GDP ($2,089 billion). It was enough for the wealth management advisory to raise the first red flag, declaring that "farm loan waivers of up to 2 per cent of the GDP in the run-up to the 2019 hustings pose fiscal/rate risk and impacts the credit culture". The warning note came in the wake of the Uttar Pradesh government of Yogi Adityanath announcing in March that it was sanctioning farm loan waivers to the tune of Rs 36,359 crore, or 0.4 per cent of the state's Rs 12.37 lakh crore GDP. Inevitably, this was followed by demands for similar concessions to farmers in Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

Despite the Centre urging the states to keep their finances in mind before announcing populist measures, Merrill Lynch analysts say the states will continue to be in breach of the indicative 3-3.5 per cent fiscal deficit numbers, a key risk to the fiscal roadmap proposed by the N.K. Singh committee this January.

Reserve Bank of India governor Urjit Patel termed loan waivers a "moral hazard", saying they undermined an honest credit culture. Chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian and SBI chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya were equally critical. Left economists did bat for the move, saying if banks can have NPAs and black money continues to be stashed abroad, why can't farmers be waived their loans?

Now consider another number: 318,528. This is the National Crime Records Bureau's estimate of the number of farmer suicides between 1995 and 2015, which works out to roughly one every half hour. The issue was serious enough for a Supreme Court bench, consisting of Chief Justice of India J.S. Khehar and Justices D.Y. Chandrachud and S.K. Kaul, to ask the Centre on March 27 to file a report within four weeks on what plan of action the states had to tackle the issue of farmer suicides. The court also wanted the government to "come out with a policy that deals with the root causes" of farmer suicides.

Curiously, the country produced its largest ever cereal crop in 2016-17-273 million tonnes (mt) as per estimates. The country has also enjoyed bumper crops in pulses, sugarcane and cotton. Budget allocation to agriculture has gone up from Rs 16,646 crore in 2015 to Rs 20,400 crore in 2016 and Rs 41,855 crore in 2017. The Narendra Modi government has in its last two budgets announced farm-focused schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, soil health cards, Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana, National Agriculture Market (eNAM), among others. The government has also pledged to double farmers' incomes by 2022.

Easier said than done. As Professor Ashok Gulati of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) points out, "To realise such an ambitious outcome, in real, not nominal terms, the basic precondition is a 14 per cent annual growth in agriculture for the next five years (2017 to 2022). Agricultural growth has been fairly volatile in the past decade, fluctuating from 5.8 per cent in 2005-06 to 0.4 per cent in 2009-10 when the monsoon failed. From 2014-15 again, agricultural growth has slipped down to -0.2 per cent in the first year of the NDA government, 1.2 per cent in 2015-16, though according to advance estimates of the agriculture ministry, it has risen to 4.1 per cent in 2016-17 on the back of a good monsoon.

Why has Indian agriculture come to this pass? How is it that in the headlong rush towards development, the interests of the Indian farmer seem to have fallen through the cracks? This when 118.7 million of India's total 1.3 billion population are cultivators, another 144.3 million agricultural labourers. In the 2001-2011 decade, there has been a fall of about 9 million in cultivators and an increase of about 38 million in agricultural labourers. Together, they accounted for 55 per cent of the country's total workforce of 481.7 million in 2011. Yet, agriculture contributes just 17 per cent to the nation's economy, and that includes fisheries and forestry.

So far, all political parties have responded to the current crisis in agriculture through short-term measures such as loan waivers. They have become both the preferred carrot to win votes and a stick to beat the opposition with. In the recent assembly polls, loan waivers were as much of a plank for the Congress in Punjab as they were for the BJP in UP and other states. In Punjab, as many as 40 per cent of the state's 9 lakh farmers who were disbursed crop loans worth Rs 7,500 crore at the start of this Rabi season have deliberately defaulted on their dues because chief minister Capt. Amarinder Singh had promised 'Karza kurki khatam (end to farm debt recovery)' ahead of the assembly polls. Figures obtained from the Punjab State Cooperative Bank Ltd, which oversees the disbursement of agricultural credit across the state, reveal that close to 3.6 lakh farmers have simply refused to pay back their accumulated loans of Rs 3,000 crore.

In Maharashtra, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis was reluctant to grant loan waivers only to have Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray attacking him over the issue. Addressing a rally of farmers in Nashik on May 19, Thackeray issued a veiled threat of pulling out of the government if his demand to grant farmers loan waivers was not met.

The unconventional 41-day agitation by Tamil Nadu farmers at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi in March-April, in which they wore human skulls, conducted mock funerals and even stripped at Raisina Hill, led first to the Madras High Court directing the state on April 5 to write off farmer loans, which would entail a hit over Rs 40,000 crore to state finances. A fortnight later, on April 23, Tamil Nadu chief minister K. Palaniswami assured the agitating farmers that he would take up their demands, including of loan waivers, with Prime Minister Modi.

However, no government so far has tried to address the structural fault lines in agriculture. Barring the Green Revolution of the 1960s, there have been no comprehensive and pro-active agrarian reforms with the farmer at the centre of the debate. The emphasis has always been on food security, and in that regard, Indian agriculture has come a long way, from a food-import-shipments-to-mouth status in the 1950s and '60s to food-export-shipments today. Total foodgrain production has increased from 51 mt in 1950-51 to 273 mt in 2016-2017, a six-fold increase in the past 67 years.

Unlike in the past, though, the crisis in agriculture today is not because of food scarcity but due to market volatility. The global boom in foodgrains production is causing market prices to crash, affecting poor farming populations such as in India that lack the savings and other cushions to buffer the impact. But while the prices of output are falling, input costs are rising, making farming risky and, increasingly, an unviable proposition in India. It's a tangled issue involving deep structural imbalances in the sector-one that successive governments have despairingly failed to resolve.

The widow and daughters of farmer Kuldeep Singh who committed suicide (Photo by YASIR IQBAL) The widow and daughters of farmer Kuldeep Singh who committed suicide (Photo by YASIR IQBAL)

Sia Ranis husband took his life as half his crop was eaten by cattle (Photo by YASIR IQBAL) Sia Ranis husband took his life as half his crop was eaten by cattle (Photo by YASIR IQBAL)

Land

Rise in small fragmented holdings, leasing still a tedious process

In 2012-2013, India had 142 million hectare (mha) of land under cultivation. As the accompanying table shows, the number of marginal landholdings (less than one hectare) has increased from 36 million in 1971 to 93 million in 2011. The average plot size in the country has reduced from nearly 2.3 hectare (1 hectare = 2.5 acres) in 1970 to under 1.2 hectare at present. Agricultural economist Yoginder Alagh says, "Forget 1.2 hectares, the majority of Indian farmers have less than one acre of land. Almost 70 per cent of farmers own less than 30 per cent of cultivable land." The small size of the holdings makes them good only for subsistence agriculture.

Since smaller land holdings are fragments of larger holdings that have been passed down generations, farmers who cultivate them often do not have a formal lease agreement. The absence of such land records does not allow these farmers to access formal credit or be eligible for government benefits such as input subsidies or crop insurance schemes. Socialist-era state laws also limit the amount of land a single person or a single family may own. For instance, as per the West Bengal Land Reforms Act, private ownership of agricultural land in the state is capped at 17.5 acres for irrigated areas and 24.5 acres for rainfed areas. Buying agricultural land is also cumbersome, entailing proof that one has been an agriculturist in the past.

Leasing land too is tedious in most states. Laws governing land ceiling and leasing of agricultural land vary across states. States such as Kerala, Manipur and Jammu and Kashmir completely prohibit leasing agricultural land. Bihar, UP, Telangana, Karnataka and Odisha allow land leasing only by certain categories of land owners. Agriculturally prosperous states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra as well as Assam do not explicitly prohibit leasing. They allow the tenant to purchase the land from the owner after a specified period. In Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, there is no legal ban on leasing land.

How to fix it

- Initiate land reforms that will encourage consolidation of land holdings; create a 'land bank' where interested landowners can deposit their land parcels for tenants to lease; update and digitise land records and titles

- Legalise land leasing. The NITI Aayog, under the direction of Ramesh Chand, proposed a model land leasing law that will ensure that land owners have the security of ownership rights and tenants are secure by simply registering. Legalisation of land tenancy would also ensure that farmers get access to formal credit, insurance and inputs such as fertilisers. However, only Madhya Pradesh has adopted the model land leasing law so far.

- Provide alternative employment avenues for those who want to move away from agriculture. This requires the creation of more industry and jobs.

- Ensure transparency and rebuild trust between farmers and governments, says Alagh. Especially when land is being acquired "for public purposes". In the recent past, all too often governments or private players have acquired farmland cheaply without adequate compensation to the farmers.

Soil

Excessive use of urea, pesticides has compromised soil fertility

The majority of farms in the Gangetic valley of north India have alluvial soil, one of the most fertile soils in the world," says Alagh. Yet, soil degradation has been an area of major concern in the past few decades. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) had in 2010 estimated that of the country's total land area of 328.7 mha, nearly 120.4 mha is afflicted with land degradation of some sort, whether water and wind erosion, waterlogging, soil alkalinity or seepage of mining and industrial waste, along with excessive use of fertiliser, intensive cropping and depletion of organic matter.

Indian soil consists of primary nutrients such as nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P) and potassium (K), secondary nutrients such as sulphur, calcium and magnesium, and micro-nutrients such as zinc, iron, and manganese. "While the thumb rule for using N,P and K fertilisers is 4:2:1, Indian farmers usually end up using 6.7:2.4:1.6, an excess of nitrogen given the overuse of urea, some phosphate and very low levels of potassium," says Utpal Singh, additional secretary in the Union ministry for agriculture.

This is because of the current regime of fertiliser subsidy. To promote the use of fertiliser by farmers, the central government provides a subsidy to the producers of fertilisers. In 2017-18, Rs 70,000 crore has been allocated to the purpose, the largest after food subsidy. Allocations to fertiliser subsidy have been increasing at an annual rate of 11.4 per cent between 2000 and 2016. Of the subsidy allocated in 2017-18, Rs 49,768 crore has been allocated to subsidy for urea. Currently, the amount of subsidy to be given is determined by the cost of production of the fertiliser company. As a result, companies with a higher cost of production receive greater subsidies. This reduces their incentive to lower their cost of production. Although urea consumption has been increasing over the past decade, no new domestic production capacity has been added in the past 15 years.

A farmer in Mahoba district, Uttar Pradesh(Photo by YASIR IQBAL) A farmer in Mahoba district, Uttar Pradesh(Photo by YASIR IQBAL)

How to fix it

- Distribute soil health cards to all farmers. The NDA government in 2015 launched soil health cards, to be issued free once in three years to all farmers. "The soil health cards cover six crops of the farmer's choice," says Singh. "The card informs farmers about the nutrient status of the soil and the recommended dose of nutrients to improve soil fertility in order to grow crops of his choice. The use of soil health cards will help bring about soil amendment, optimal use of nutrients, which will reduce excess water, salinity and alkalinity in the soil." The government claims it has distributed 65 million soil health cards so far and aims to cover everyone by 2018-19. "In the next two-year cycle, the plan is to provide soil health cards to 140 million farmers," says Dr Ashok Dalwai, additional secretary in the agriculture ministry.

- A committee that examined the role of the Food Corporation of India recommended that cash transfers be made to farmers to replace the current fertiliser subsidy regime. Sources in the agriculture ministry reveal that by July 2017, the government is likely to restructure the system of fertiliser subsidy. Fertiliser companies will be given subsidy only once the dealer has sold the fertiliser to the farmer. The idea is to pass on the fertiliser subsidy to the farmer instead of the industry. This would also enable farmers to choose fertilisers in the combination best suited to their needs, and help them to fix the fertiliser imbalance in soil. In July 2016, the government had announced that it would be conducting pilot studies of direct benefit transfer in 16 districts in 2016-17.

- To prevent diversion of urea to non-agricultural use and make it more readily available to farmers, all subsidised urea now has to be coated with neem. This is something, the government claims, that has led to a 5 to 17 per cent increase in crop yield.

- Bring more farmers in the ambit of organic farming under the government's Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana.

Water

Not all cultivable land is underirrigation; water usage is inefficient

Only 45 per cent of the cultivable area in the country is irrigated," says Siraj Hussain, former agriculture secretary. "Punjab is lucky to have 98 per cent irrigation but agricultural states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Rajasthan have less than 30 per cent irrigation." The 45 per cent irrigated area apart, the rest rely on the monsoon. Any failure of rains, and agricultural growth nosedives. The cumulative rainfall during the monsoon season of 2015-16, for instance, was deficient by 14 per cent, higher than the rainfall deficit of 12 per cent in the year before.

Within the overall irrigated land, nearly 60 per cent is from pumped groundwater. Using subsidised electricity, such groundwater is pumped at will, drawing up more annually than China and America combined. According to a recent European Commission report, India has 20 million boreholes. The water table is falling on an average by 0.3 metres and by as much as an alarming 4 metres in some places. The problem is not a lack of adequate water, but its reckless overuse. According to The Economist, "China, with a larger population, uses 28 per cent less fresh water than India."

The Modi government, on July 1, 2015, launched the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY), which is expected to cover 28.5 lakh hectare under irrigation. The aim was reflected in the slogans "har khet ko paani (water to every field)" and "per drop more crop" to improve water efficiency. The PMKSY linked three different departments of the government-agriculture, rural development and water resources-and identified 99 projects that were incomplete for almost two decades for early completion under the Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP).

However, as Gulati points out, "None of these projects has been completed till now and the majority of incomplete projects in Maharashtra face inordinate delays and serious allegations of corruption."

Irrigation at the first agro-farm in Mysore, Karnataka (Photo by NILOTPAL BARUAH) Irrigation at the first agro-farm in Mysore, Karnataka (Photo by NILOTPAL BARUAH)

According to irrigation expert Tushaar Shah, the government is spending the bulk of funds-Rs 50,000 crore under PMKSY and the Rs 20,000 crore escrow account with National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard)-on 93 incomplete large irrigation projects. The emphasis instead, he says, should be on a network of smaller canals, like in Madhya Pradesh, that deliver water directly to the farmer. The bureaucracy is obsessed, claims Shah, with large dams, reservoirs and large canals, contracts for which are usually awarded to political cronies. It is groundwater, in fact, that covers 65 to 70 per cent of irrigated area, yet the NDA government has allocated only 5 to 7 per cent of the irrigation funds to sources of groundwater.

On top of this, water efficiency continues to be extremely poor in India, with farmers using almost 2-3 times more water to produce one tonne of grain compared with Brazil, China and the US. The Economic Survey of 2015-16 concluded that India largely uses the technique of flood irrigation, where water is allowed to flow into the field and seep into the soil. This causes wastage of water as excess water seeps into the soil or evaporates.

How to fix it

- According to Gulati, if the government is to realise its dream of doubling farm incomes by 2022, it needs to treble the resources for irrigation in order to ensure water for every farm. "The minimum annual investment needed would be Rs 3 lakh crore for irrigation for the next five years," he estimates. Experts at the recent Nabard deliberations also agreed that investing more in irrigation was critical to raising farmers' incomes. The central allocation under the PMKSY was Rs 5,767 crore in the last budget, while states put together over Rs 1.04 lakh crore for irrigation in 2015-16.

- The 2015-16 Economic Survey recommended that farmers shift from flood irrigation to micro irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler. This will help conserve water besides saving on the costs of irrigation.

A seed supplier shares productivity techniques with a farmer in Telangana (Photo by A. PRABHAKAR RAO) A seed supplier shares productivity techniques with a farmer in Telangana (Photo by A. PRABHAKAR RAO)

- Access to groundwater is the most important stimulus to increase farm productivity, especially for marginal farmers. The government should provide 24 hour power supply to farmers and charge them a reasonable fee to encourage farmers to use their tubewells responsibly. "By giving power free to farmers in Punjab and Haryana, the government caused the deterioration of power supply," says Shah. The British colonial government, which built the earliest network of canals, levied an irrigation service fee in the form of a water tax, collecting enough money to maintain canals. After Independence, the political authorities made irrigation service free, ending up with no money for the maintenance of these irrigation systems. The Indian government must revive a form of maintenance fee to make irrigation sustainable.

Technology

It's expensive to buy farm equipment, and small holdings make machinery use inefficient

It is cheaper today to buy cars than farm equipment," says Siraj Hussain. "Short-term credit like crop loans are subsidised at 4 per cent interest by banks but for long-term key inputs such as borewells, farm equipment, tractors, etc., banks charge 12 per cent interest." Of the Rs 6.25 lakh crore target for loans to be disbursed by public sector banks, only Rs 4.63 lakh crore was disbursed up to December 2016, according to Nabard data.

The percentage share of agricultural workers in total farm power (this includes draught animals, tractors, power tillers, diesel engines, electric motors) reduced from 15.4 to 5 per cent over the years from 1971-72 to 2012-13. On the other hand, the share of tractor and electric motor in farm power increased from 6.8 to 45.8 per cent, that of tractor by 39 per cent in the same period.

The easiest way to double farmers' incomes, according to Dr Dalwai, is "by reducing the post-production costs principally through farm mechanisation, thus substituting manual labour with machines". The labour component of agriculture makes up as much as 40 per cent of the total cost. Farm mechanisation costs are usually one-time unlike recurring manual labour costs. The idea is to shift farm labour to non-farming activities.

The status of mechanisation in agriculture varies for different activities, although the overall level of mechanisation in India is still less than 50 per cent in contrast to 90 per cent in developed countries. The highest level of mechanisation-about 60 to 70 per cent-is in harvesting and threshing activities and 37 per cent in irrigation. The lowest level of mechanisation is found in seeding and planting. The small and scattered size of land holdings also leads to inefficient use of machinery.

Apart from mechanisation, new crop technologies too need to be implemented. The erstwhile Green Revolution states of Punjab and Haryana are now suffering from soil fatigue, given their continued preoccupation with traditional crops. Climate change too has become an unchangeable aspect of our lives, affecting crop cycles and production.

How to fix it

- Make easy credit available for purchase of expensive farm equipment; encourage cooperative management of farm machinery as well as financing of second-hand tractors to small farmers.

- Reskill farmers displaced due to mechanisation. Unless alternative avenues of employment are provided, removing rural poverty will only end in massive urban poverty.

- Diversify cropping patterns in states where soil fatigue has set in. Ensure quality seeds, crucial to enhancing agricultural productivity.

- The government has also launched the Bringing Green Revolution to Eastern India programme, where it aims to address low productivity in the seven rice-producing states of eastern India and also plans to include pulses as part of its extension programme.

- Promote climate-resilient farming as well as short-duration crops.

Marketing

Lack of cold chains ends in distress crop sale, exposure to price volatility

The lack of a national agricultural market is the biggest constraint in raising agricultural productivity, according to Siraj Hussain. "Market imperfections include no cold chain and price uncertainty. When production of crops is good due to a successful monsoon, prices crash, leading to misery for the farmer," he says.

Agricultural markets in the country are regulated by state APMC (Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee) laws ever since the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government released a model APMC Act in 2003 to be enacted by the states. Under these state acts, farmers are required to sell their produce at state-owned mandis protected by remunerative prices. The system fell into disarray due to shortcomings: APMC mandis levy a market fee on farmers, which makes it expensive for them to sell produce. Additionally, farmers have to arrange for their produce to be transported from their farms to the nearest mandi, adding to costs. In transporting grain from the farm to the store, several intermediaries are involved, who charge commissions. Again, mandis are often shut for lack of storage or, if open, have fortnight-long queues. Thus the farmer is forced to sell his produce at significantly lower prices to the trader compared to the competitive price he gets from the retailer.

The Act provides for selling produce directly through contract farming, permits private persons, farmers and consumers to establish agricultural markets, levies a single market fee on the sale of the commodity and replaces licences with registration of market agencies so they can operate in more than one market. But only 18 states and Union territories have implemented the reforms in the Model Act.

Families of deceased farmers in Punjab seek compensation in 2014 ( Photo by PRABHJOT GILL) Families of deceased farmers in Punjab seek compensation in 2014 ( Photo by PRABHJOT GILL)

How to fix it

- The Economic Survey of 2014-15 recommended that a National Agricultural Market (NAM) be created as a national electronic platform for farmers to sell their produce. Such a market would enable farmers to receive a price for their produce and allow them to sell their produce anywhere in the country. In April 2016, the Modi government launched e-NAM to link 585 regulated agri-markets across eight states and integrated wholesale mandis in these areas to create a common platform.

- Create infrastructure for agricultural markets. The reason why India does not have adequate agricultural markets is because, as Alagh points out, "there is no price-discovery mechanism; just some marginal and poor farmers selling their produce on the highway for urban motorists is no replacement for an adequate market". There is no way for the farmer to find out optimal pricing in the region or globally, he adds. "The price information available is months old and outdated when the farmer needs current price information. The Indian government and private sector need to set up smart agricultural towns, smart agricultural markets, smart villages, not merely smart cities to fix the lack of agricultural markets."

- Protect farmers against price fluctuations. Rural distress today is largely due to falling prices, especially of potatoes, corn and cotton. While falling prices have slashed farmers' incomes substantially, the MSP (minimum support price) system is benefitting less than 10 per cent of the rural sector, says Hussain. Governments cannot control prices but can help build clauses to protect farmers.

- Set up cold chains so that farmers can store excess produce and not sell them in distress. In a recent interview with india today, Union minister for food processing industries, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, said Rs 92,651 crore (at 2014 wholesale prices) worth of food is wasted in the country. She quoted a 2013 ICAR study that blamed the lack of short-term storage infrastructure, particularly at the farm level, and the lack of processing capacities in production catchments. "We've sanctioned 101 new cold chains and five food parks in the past three years," she said. She is also putting in place infrastructure for three separate food grids-for fruits, vegetables and other cash crops-and working on a National Food Grid Development Authority, or NFGDA, which will help plan movement of food, establish forward and backward linkages, find ways of minimising wastage and expand and upscale food processing in the country. She expects this to be a job multiplier besides cutting farmers' losses and reducing food inflation. "It is criminal to let food go waste in a country where so many live below the poverty line," she said. The NDA government has also opened up FDI in multi-brand retail that sells food processed in India.

- Encourage farmer cooperatives. Farmers have no institutional support currently except cooperatives in some places in Gujarat and the cotton- growing region of Maharashtra. "Agriculture prospers with such cooperatives, which can be also run professionally under corporate principles like in Anand. Skills and technology must be integrated with the national agricultural market," concludes Alagh.

Safety net

Or how to make the farmer beat the debt trap

Successive droughts have contributed immensely to the rate of farmer suicides in India. Most farmers in India, being subsistence farmers, do not have enough savings to cushion the impact of a failed monsoon. In the event of a crop failure, the cycle of indebtedness only grows.

How to fix it

- Reduce farmers' dependence on the monsoon, introduce crop variation, along with extending irrigation facilities.

- Fix imbalances in government policy. At present, such policy, says, Gulati, is biased in favour of the urban consumer rather than the farmer. For instance, the recent policy of importing sugar duty-free had disastrous consequences since it depressed the prices of sugar below sustainable levels. Similarly myopic was the policy of zero duty import of pulses despite a good crop in 2016-17.

- Give farmers crop insurance. In this regard, the Modi government launched its ambitious Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) in January 2016. The PMFBY covers cereals, vegetables, pulses, oilseeds and even spices grown by all farmers. This year's Union budget allocated Rs 9,000 crore to the scheme, almost double the Rs 5,501 crore allocated last year. In 2016, the PMFBY covered 3.7 crore farmers for the Kharif season for Rs 1.41 lakh crore, an amount more than double the Rs 69,307 crore allocated for the 2015 season, which covered 3.1 crore farmers all over the country. Even critics of the NDA government have praised the scheme. Says Abhijit Sen, former member of the Planning Commission, "The Modi government's flagship programme PMFBY is a sound, innovative policy which will have a long-term positive effect on the rural economy and will strengthen infrastructure such as rural roads." However, Gulati points out that when floods hit UP in 2016, the insurance company did not pay farmers compensation on the pretext that neither the central government nor the state government had been paying their premium on time.

- If it is serious about its commitment to double farm incomes, Gulati goes on to say, the government must work sincerely towards correcting policy distortions. Its aim should be to empower the farmer. Unless farming becomes sustainable and viable in the long run, the vicious cycle of rural indebtedness and rising farmer suicides will never end.

(With Asit Jolly, Rahul Noronha, Amarnath K. Menon, Kiran D. Tare)