If Kyle Lowry is ever voted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, Mass., he may have to give Tristan Thompson a tip of the hat in his acceptance speech.

The Toronto-born forward of the Cleveland Cavaliers voiced early support for a Lowry Hall of Fame campaign after a blowout loss to the Raptors on New Year’s Eve. The 33-year-old Raptors guard scored 24 points that night, capping a seven-game stretch — minus injured teammates Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norm Powell — in which he averaged 25.1 points and eight assists while shooting 40 per cent from three-point range.

“Kyle Lowry’s a Hall of Famer,” Thompson said. “He’s a (five)-time all-star, Olympic gold medallist, an NBA champ. He’s their backbone.”

While induction down the road is no slam dunk, Thompson’s conviction raises the question: How strong is Lowry’s case for enshrinement?

The answer is as complex as the player himself.

The list of Lowry’s significant achievements starts with the ones Thompson mentioned — and a sixth all-star nod seems likely next month — plus a third-team all-NBA selection in 2016.

In addition:

Lowry ranks eighth leaguewide over the past 15 years in value over replacement player, or VORP, an advanced metric.

Sixth in the NBA in assists over that span.

Tenth in made threes.

Ninth among guards in steals (12th overall) and sixth according to the win shares metric (which attempts to measure a player’s impact on a team’s success).

Many of those rankings are even higher during his eight years with the Raptors:

Seventh in VORP.

Ninth in assists.

Eighth in made threes.

Sixth among guards in steals (13th overall) and in win shares.

It’s an impressive record of consistency at an elite level, at a time when it’s never been harder to stand out at the position. NBA guards have enjoyed unprecedented success in recent years, with the star-studded list of backcourt performers also featuring the Warriors’ Stephen Curry, the Rockets’ James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder’s Chris Paul and the Trail Blazers’ Damian Lillard.

Still, Lowry — who scored 26 points in Saturday’s 121-102 win over the Nets in Brooklyn — is generally considered a borderline hall of famer.

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He has a reputation as a late bloomer — eight years in the league before an all-star nod — who struggled in the playoffs until the Raptors’ magical run to the championship. A lack of season-end all-NBA nods also hurts his chances.

The counterargument? Lowry averaged 16.2 points, 7.2 assists and shot 36.8 from three in the NBA Finals this past spring — a trio of numbers matched only by Curry in the league’s championship series — and scored 26 points in the deciding Game 6 win over the Warriors.

Beyond the core numbers, his willingness to take a charge alone might be worth a spot on the all-defensive team.

According to Hall of Fame probability projections crunched by the website Basketball Reference, Lowry — who signed a one-year contract extension before the season, worth $31 million (U.S.) in 2020-21 — currently has a 68.3 per cent shot at a ticket to Springfield. That’s up substantially from 45 per cent when the Raptors captured the Larry O’Brien trophy.

The calculation takes into account several factors, including: NBA championships, all-star game selections, win shares, height and season rankings (top 10) in points, total rebounds, assists, minutes played, steals and blocks.

Using that model, the website ranks all players past and present, including those already in the Hall of Fame. The two players directly ahead of Lowry on that list, guards Mitch Richmond and Dick McGuire, are already in the shrine. Since 1990, several guards with resumes similar to Lowry’s have been inducted, including K.C. Jones, Gail Goodrich and Paul Westphal.

At No. 101 all-time based on this projection, Lowry ranks fourth among players with significant ties to the Raptors. Chris Bosh rates the highest at No. 49, followed by Tracy McGrady (No. 70) and still-active Vince Carter (No. 72).

What no statistical metric can measure, however, is one of Lowry’s greatest strengths: intangibles.

The point guard has been the beating heart of a consistently strong franchise that ended the last decade with a ring. He has been integral to raising Toronto’s stature on the NBA map.

“He’s been through … the highs and lows.” Thompson said. “For him, he keeps his ship running. He’s playing at a high level. Kyle’s a bulldog. He’s going to compete every night. That’s why his teammates always love him, because you know you can count on the guy every night.”

Whether that’s enough to get him into the Hall of Fame remains to be seen, but he’s clearly in the conversation.

With files from Doug Smith

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