What impact will Connecticut's new gun laws have on this year's state elections?

A few weeks ago I would have said hardly any. But in most things political, if you wait a minute, the winds will change – and so will political fortunes.

Two events this past week have stirred the winds – a shift in public opinion and an infusion of money.

A March 2013 Quinnipiac University poll of registered Connecticut voters found a remarkably strong showing of support for tougher gun laws. Not too surprising given that it was conducted less than three months after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, and just weeks before Gov. Dannel P. Malloy signed the reform legislation.

Saying a “strong” showing of support is not an overstatement. According to that Q-poll, voters favored tougher laws by a 2-1 margin, including support for universal background checks by 93-6 percent margin, and that included 89-9 percent margin of support by voters in households with guns.

A shift in support

But a Rasmussen Report poll conducted last week, found the pendulum had swung – at least on a national scale – with 53 percent of Americans now saying they oppose stricter gun laws, the highest level of opposition reported in two years.

I'm not aware of any new poll of just Connecticut voters, so it's difficult to say with any certainty whether that shift in public opinion is as sharp locally as it is nationally – but it is certainly worth considering when measuring the potential impact on the upcoming elections.

The second issue whipping up the winds is money – always a factor in elections.

It's been highly anticipated that the National Rifle Association and other pro-gun groups, like the Connecticut Citizens Defense League – the group challenging the state's new laws' constitutionality in the courts -- would attempt to influence the outcome of the elections with campaign ads attacking those who supported the reform measures.

Money, money, money

But last week, on the anniversary of the signing of the reform legislation, a new SuperPAC emerged, this one pledging to support candidates – mostly incumbents -- who supported the reforms. That effort is being led by Ron Pinciaro, executive director of Connecticut Against Gun Violence. The group has been raising funds to mount what it calls an “educational” campaign aimed at bringing public awareness to the issue that the reforms are being threatened because “gun rights activists will not accept laws enacted by the will of the people and the constitutional process” in the state.

Up until this point, the gun issue has only surfaced in a few isolated cases.

At a Republican gathering of candidates in Canterbury a couple of months ago, state Sen. John McKinney, R-Fairfield, -- a target of gun rights activists because of his support for the reforms -- was booed. And until Avon attorney Martha Dean's entrance into the crowded GOP gubernatorial field, anti-reform activist were fairly silent in terms of support for any of the other contenders.

At the legislative level, state Rep. Linda Orange, D-Colchester, is being specifically targeted because she voted against the reforms. Democrat Jason Paul challenging her for the Democratic nomination to block her re-election bid.

The winds of change are definitely in the air, but how strong and how long will they last is the question.

Ray Hackett is The Bulletin's editorial page editor. He has more than 25 years covering Connecticut politics. He can be reached at (860) 425-4225 or rhackett@norwichbulletin.com.