Below is an analysis of the different Power 5 conference divisional races now that we are officially 2/3rds through the college football regular season. I did not include the Big 12 because they don't have divisions; also, they are a bad conference and should feel bad.

Note: Not all teams in "Eliminated From Contention" categories are actually mathematically eliminated.

The Too Long, Didn't Read Recap:

Alabama is not as safe as you would think.

Big Ten West is the most interesting race in football. 5 out of 7 teams are still alive.

Clemson in the ACC Atlantic is the only division race that is already over (99%).

Ohio State needs to root for Michigan.

SEC East is literally putrid and the worst.

The Apple Cup is poised to be more significant than it has been in decades; in fact, it's the only game on rivalry weekend still possible to be between teams with undefeated conference records.

Colorado is the frontrunner in the PAC-12 South.

Northwestern clearly holds black magic juju over the Wisconsin Badgers.

I don't care about the Big 12.

ACC (Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina)

Atlantic Division:

Presumptive Champion:

· Clemson (8-0 overall, 5-0 ACC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Syracuse, vs. Pittsburgh, @Wake Forest.

Path: Now that they have defeated both Florida State and Louisville, the Tigers are 99% solidified as Atlantic Division Champions. They would have to lose 2 out of their final 3 conference games (and Louisville and/or Wake Forest would have to win out). Two of which are at home in Death Valley and none of which are against ranked (or even others receiving votes) teams.

(Technically) Still in the Hunt:

· Louisville (7-1 overall, 5-1 ACC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: @Boston College, vs. Wake Forest.

Path: Win their two final conference games and Clemson must lose two out of three remaining ACC games. Probability = 0.99%.

· Wake Forest (5-3 overall, 2-2 ACC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Virginia, @Louisville, vs. Clemson, vs. Boston College.

Path: Because they still get to play both Louisville and Clemson, technically, Wake Forest could win out their 4 remaining ACC games AND have Clemson lose an additional game (at home to either Syracuse or Pitt), but this is not happening. Probability = 0.01%.

Eliminated from Contention:

· Syracuse (4-4 overall, 2-2 ACC)

· Florida State (5-3 overall, 2-3 ACC)

· North Carolina State (4-4 overall, 1-3 ACC)

· Boston College (4-4 overall, 1-4 ACC)

Coastal Division:

Still in the Hunt:

· Virginia Tech (6-2 overall, 4-1 ACC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: @Duke, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Virginia

Path: Control their own destiny. Win out and they are in. Alternatively, could drop one game if North Carolina also drops one. They defeated UNC 34-3 in Chapel Hill, but lost a weird upset @Syracuse to remove their margin of error.

· North Carolina (6-2 overall, 4-1 ACC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Georgia Tech, @Duke, vs. North Carolina State

Path: Win out and hope Virginia Tech loses an ACC game.

Eliminated From Contention:

· Pittsburgh (5-3 overall, 2-2 ACC)

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they lost last second, incredibly close games to both of the division frontrunners. Thus, while they technically could still win the division by having UNC and VT both lose TWO out of their final three games AND win out (would have to include a road win over Clemson) this is too many contingent scenarios. They are eliminated in my book.

· Georgia Tech (5-3 overall, 2-3 ACC)

· Miami (4-4 overall, 1-3 ACC)

· Virginia (2-6 overall, 1-3 ACC)

· Duke (3-5 overall, 0-4 ACC)

Big Ten (Championship in Indianapolis, Indiana)

Big Ten East:

Still in the Hunt:

· Michigan (8-0 overall, 5-0 Big Ten)

Remaining Schedule: vs. Maryland, @Iowa, vs. Indiana, @Ohio State

Path: We control our own destiny; win out and we are in. Alternatively, we could lose any one of our next three games and still beat OSU and win the Big Ten East. Or (the worst case scenario), we could win the next 3, lose to OSU but the Buckeyes could lose another game before they get to us (most likely chance is vs. #9 Nebraska this weekend).

· Penn State (6-2 overall, 4-1 Big Ten)

Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa, @Indiana, @Rutgers, vs. Michigan State

Path: Win out and Michigan must lose two of their final four games.

PS-isn’t it fun that PSU is currently in second place in the East and not OSU so I get to list them first?!

· Ohio State (7-1 overall, 4-1 Big Ten)

Remaining Schedule: vs. Nebraska, @Maryland, @Michigan State, vs. Michigan

Path: Must win out. Additionally, Ohio State needs Michigan to WIN its next three games OR Penn State to lose one of its final four games. If the Nittany Lions win out (they have a very manageable schedule remaining) and Michigan loses a game before they travel to Columbus, Ohio State would not travel to Indianapolis even with an 11-1 record and victory over the Wolverines. However, OSU wins a three-way, 8-1 in the Big Ten tie due to Penn State’s loss to Pittsburgh.

Eliminated From Contention:

· Indiana (4-4 overall, 2-3 Big Ten)

· Maryland (5-3 overall, 2-3 Big Ten)

· Rutgers (2-6 overall, 0-5 Big Ten)

· Michigan State (2-6 overall, 0-5 Big Ten)

PS-It’s even more fun that MSU is at the bottom of this list.

Big Ten West (Behold, the most wide open division in College Football!!!)

Still in the Hunt:

· Nebraska (7-1 overall, 4-1 Big Ten)

Remaining Schedule: @Ohio State, vs. Minnesota, vs. Maryland, @Iowa

Path: Still control their own destiny. Win out and they are in Indy. If they lose to Ohio State but win their final three games, they need Wisconsin to lose one of its final four games.

· Wisconsin (6-2 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Remaining Schedule: @Northwestern, vs. Illinois, @Purdue, vs. Minnesota

Path: The Badgers are finally to their reward after a brutal two months: the easiest November schedule in the conference. Wisconsin must win out and have Nebraska lose another game. I believe for UW it will all come down to this weekend. Nebraska is by far most likely to lose @Ohio State compared to its other games and the Badgers' hardest remaining game is @Northwestern*** this weekend

***(MOST INSANE STATISTIC IN THE BIG TEN IS THAT WISCONSIN HAS NOT WON IN EVANSTON SINCE 1999; LITERALLY HOW?! BRADY HOKE WENT 4-0 AGAINST THEM, FOR GOD’S SAKE).

· Minnesota (6-2 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Remaining Schedule: vs. Purdue, @Nebraska, vs. Northwestern, @Wisconsin

Path: Given that my sources indicate the chance Iowa goes 3-0 against #20 Penn State, #2 Michigan and #9 Nebraska is below 0.00% and I only round to the hundredth place, Minnesota actually controls their own destiny. The reason: the Gophers have yet to play a single one of the top three West contenders. So, if they win out, they will be in Indianapolis as they will have tiebreakers over all plausible competition (sorry, Iowa).

· Northwestern: (4-4 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, @Purdue, @Minnesota, vs. Illinois

Path: Win out and Nebraska must lose twice, most plausibly at Ohio State and at Iowa (in this scenario, Northwestern would have beaten Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota). Otherwise, they have no chance as their two non-conference losses would eliminate them from any complex, multi-team tiebreaker scenario.

· Iowa (5-3 overall, 3-2 Big Ten)

Remaining Schedule: @Penn State, vs. Michigan, @Illinois, vs. Nebraska.

Path: Win out AND Wisconsin must lose another game. However, it’s more likely that the Hawkeyes go 0-4 than 4-0 down the stretch, in my humble opinion.

Eliminated from Contention:

· Purdue (3-5 overall, 1-4 Big Ten)

· Illinois (2-6 overall, 1-4 Big Ten)

PAC-12 (Championship in Santa Clara, California)

PAC-12 North

Still in the Hunt:

· Washington (8-0 overall, 5-0 PAC-12)

Remaining Schedule: @California, vs. Southern California, vs. Arizona State, @Washington State

Path: Control their own destiny. Win out and they are in. The Huskies will also still control their own destiny even if they lose one of their next three games (a win over WSU on 11/25 would still clinch them the North).

· Washington State (6-2 overall, 5-0 PAC-12)

Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona, vs. California, @Colorado, vs. Washington.

Path: Control their own destiny, win out (or lose one of their next three, but defeat their rival) and they are in Santa Clara playing for the Rose Bowl. Who would’ve thought that sentence would be written in late October after WSU started the season 0-2 with a loss to an FCS team?! What a year for the state of Washington in college football! By the eye test, it looks like the Huskies should roll the Cougars, but the game is in Pullman so you never know!

Along with The Game and The Iron Bowl, The Apple Cup is poised to be the most consequential final weekend rivalry game in the country.

Eliminated From Contention:

· Stanford (5-3 overall, 3-3 PAC-12)

· California (4-4 overall, 2-3 PAC-12)

· Oregon (3-5 overall, 1-4 PAC-12)

· Oregon State (2-6 overall, 1-4 PAC-12)

PAC 12 South

Still in the Hunt:

· Colorado (6-2 overall, 4-1 PAC-12)

Remaining Schedule: vs. UCLA, @Arizona, vs. Washington State, vs. Utah

Path: Control their own destiny, win out and they are in Santa Clara! With 3 out of 4 remaining games at home, and the sole road game at the worst team in the PAC-12 (sorry, Rich Rod), this is distinctly possible. Additionally, if they lose one of their next three games, but beat Utah and USC loses one more game, they will still win the South. The (manufactured) rivalry deemed "Rumble in the Rockies" is critical this year; it's hard to envision any scenario where the Buffs can win the South without defeating the Utes. GO BUFFALOES!

· Utah (7-2 overall, 4-2 PAC-12)

Remaining Schedule: Bye, @Arizona State, vs. Oregon, @Colorado.

Path: Still control their own destiny (winning out would give the Utes a tiebreaker over Colorado and Utah already defeated the other contender, USC). If Utah loses one of its next two games, it will need help from both Colorado and USC losing once each, but they would still have a chance if they can take down the Buffs in Boulder. Utah would also win an extremely unlikely 3 way tiebreaker (they are the only one of the three contenders to go undefeated in the non-conference)

· Southern California (5-3 overall, 4-2 PAC 12)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Oregon, @Washington, @UCLA.

Path: The good news for USC is that they defeated Colorado and two of their three final games are against teams unlikely to make bowl games (three of their four, if you count Notre Dame). The bad news is that they lost to Utah in the final minute and still have the hardest game left on their schedule: a trip to Seattle to face the #4 Huskies. USC will need to win out and hope both Colorado and Utah lose one more game (most plausible scenario is Colorado loses to Washington State, but beats Utah). If USC can’t pull the huge upset, they will need Utah to lose 2 out of 3 remaining games and Colorado to lose 2 out of 4; given that Colorado and Utah still play each other/someone has to win that game, this is extraordinarily unlikely.

Eliminated From Contention:

· Arizona State (5-4 overall, 2-4 PAC-12)

· UCLA (3-5 overall, 1-4 PAC-12)

· Arizona (2-6 overall, 0-5 PAC-12)

SEC (Championship Game in Atlanta, Georgia)

SEC West

Still in the Hunt

· Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: @LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Auburn

Path: Obviously control their own destiny; win out and they are in. Also, not that it would ever happen, but a loss to Mississippi State would not hurt their Atlanta chances at all (provided an Iron Bowl win). However, Alabama has less of a margin for error than you would think; a loss to either rival, particularly Auburn, COULD keep them out of Atlanta.

· Auburn (6-2 overall, 4-1 SEC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Vanderbilt, @Georgia, @Alabama.

Path: Auburn is two wins over mediocre SEC East teams from playing for the SEC West in Tuscaloosa on 11/26 (granted, they would need Texas A&M to lose one more SEC game). After looking terrible the entire month of September, they have snuck back into the conversation with a solid October (albeit against a bunch of middling teams).

· LSU (5-2 overall, 3-1 SEC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Alabama, @Arkansas, vs. Florida, @Texas A&M

Path: Win out and they are in. There is no margin for error here. They also need Auburn to lose one additional SEC game. The tigers have the hardest November schedule in the entire SEC; it’s unlikely, but if they go 4-0 they will deserve Atlanta.

Eliminated from Contention:

· Texas A&M (7-1 overall, 4-1 SEC)

Sorry, A&M, but Bama is not going to lose 2 out of 3 remaining SEC games. They may drop one, but not two, especially with 1 game against the worst team in the SEC West and 2/3 at home. In the aforementioned 3 way tie between Alabama, Auburn and A&M, Bama would win given Auburn’s non-conference loss to Clemson.

· Arkansas (5-3 overall, 1-3 SEC)

· Mississippi State (3-5 overall, 1-3 SEC)

· Ole Miss (3-5 overall, 1-4 SEC)

SEC East (Behold, the worst division in Power 5 college football!!!)

Still in the Hunt:

· Florida (6-1 overall, 4-1 SEC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: @Arkansas, vs. South Carolina, @LSU

Path: Control their own destiny (with a margin of error). Need to win two more SEC games. That’s it. They can lose one and still win the East. Then again, they still have to play both of their SEC West games***. If they lose 2, things get more complicated. If Kentucky beats Tennessee, UF needs UK to lose to Georgia. If Tennessee beats Kentucky, the Gators need the Volunteers to lose to one of Missouri or Vanderbilt (I know you're probably rolling your eyes, but they already lost to horrid South Carolina and should've lost to App State, so nothing is a given).

Regardless of what happens in the SEC, the Gators are likely to be stomped in Tallahassee the last weekend of the regular season by their in-state rival, a team that will finish no better than third in the ACC Atlantic.

***The SEC East only has one win against the SEC West this entire season. It was a slim 2-point, home win (remember, Vegas gives 3 points for home field advantage) for Kentucky over Mississippi State (the worst team in the West, by far).

· Kentucky (5-3 overall, 4-2 SEC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Georgia, @Tennessee

Path: Win their final 2 SEC games and hope Florida goes 0-2 against the SEC West (Florida holds a tiebreaker after beating Kentucky 45-7). A team that lost to Southern Mississippi currently stands alone in 2nd place in the SEC East, having played 75% of its conference games! What a division!

Regardless of what happens in the SEC, the Wildcats are going to be stomped in Louisville by their in-state ACC rivals on 11/26.

· Tennessee (5-3 overall, 2-3 SEC)

Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Kentucky, vs. Missouri, @Vanderbilt

Path: Win out and hope Florida goes 0-2 against the SEC West (The Vols hold a tiebreaker over the Gators after defeating them 38-28 at home in September). Luckily for Tennessee, they do not have an instate ACC rival to get stomped by!!!

Eliminated From Contention:

· Georgia (4-4 overall, 2-4 SEC)

How did firing your perennial 9-win coach work out for you, Bulldogs?

Far less of a sure thing, but boy do I hope Georgia Tech (their in-state, ACC rival) defeats them in Athens on 11/26.

· South Carolina (4-4 overall, 2-4 SEC)

Regardless of what happens in the SEC, the Gamecocks are going to get stomped on the road by their in-state ACC rival Clemson on 11/26 (see a trend here?)

· Vanderbilt (4-4 overall, 1-3 SEC)

· Missouri (2-6 overall, 0-4 SEC)