GEORGE TOWN (September 13): A transport studies research expert says that Penang’s proposed Light Rail Transit (LRT) system is likely to lose RM1.2 billion in ticket revenue over the first 10 years of operation, due to a lack of passengers.

Roger Teoh, a postgraduate at the Imperial College London centre for transport studies research, was quoted by Free Malaysia Today(FMT) as saying that the proposed RM8.4 billion Komtar-Bayan Lepas line would eventually require a bailout.

The proposed Pan Island Link 1 (PIL 1) highway is to span a similar route,with the highway and and the LRT having similar endpoints close to the airport.

The public would then have the option of taking a 40-minute LRT ride or a 15-minute drive on the highway, en-route to the airport, he said.

According to Teoh, Penang’s car modal share on the island was 96.8%, and the vehicle-to-population ratio was 1.39.

FMT reports that the projected first-year ridership numbers for the Penang LRT line was 42 million passengers, a number that rivalled mature transit lines in London, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

Teoh estimated that even if the ridership reached 10 million passengers per year — a stretch since the island’s population was 700,000 — the project would result in losses from the beginning.

“That’s a loss of RM120 million a year, which is 20% of last year’s state revenue of RM500 million.

“If you multiply RM120 million by 10 years, that is RM1.2 billion,” he said.

The Penang government would be the one who would bear the brunt of the losses.

“The unrealistic 42 million ridership forecast has been raised four times in public, but we have yet to hear a response from the Penang government.

“While I am fully supportive of the LRT system, we have to be realistic: we do not have the right population for an LRT line,” he was quoted as saying by the news portal, at a talk organised by Penang Forum yesterday.

Transport Minister Anthony Loke has recently suggested other transit solutions, including bus rapid transit and trams.