2015 Women’s World Cup Predictions

FiveThirtyEight’s Women’s World Cup forecasting model uses our Women's Soccer Power Index (WSPI) — a system that combines game-based offensive and defensive ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate each country’s chances during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities, which are based on 20,000 simulations, will be updated at the end of each match. Read more: How our model works » | Tournament preview »

GROUP STAGE GROUPS KNOCKOUT STAGE KNOCKOUT

The Group Stage June 6-June 17 The first stage of the World Cup is a round-robin tournament, in which each team plays every other team in its four-team group. Both the winner and runner-up from each group automatically advance to the knockout stage of the tournament, as do the four best third-place teams. A wspi /100 expected goals in a competitive match scored conceded game schedule Opponent Win Lose Tie B wspi /100 expected goals in a competitive match scored conceded game schedule Opponent Win Lose Tie C wspi /100 expected goals in a competitive match scored conceded game schedule Opponent Win Lose Tie D wspi /100 expected goals in a competitive match scored conceded game schedule Opponent Win Lose Tie E wspi /100 expected goals in a competitive match scored conceded game schedule Opponent Win Lose Tie F wspi /100 expected goals in a competitive match scored conceded game schedule Opponent Win Lose Tie

The Knockout Stage June 20-July 5 The second stage of the World Cup consists of four rounds of single-elimination games. The table below shows each team’s WSPI score, its chance of reaching each round of the knockout stage and its chance of winning the World Cup. Chance of Reaching Round WSPI Team Group G Sixteen 16 Quarter 1/4 Hide Semi Hide Final Hide Win Hide 95.4 USA USA D 96% 96% 80% 80% 65% 65% 42% 42% 28% 28% 95.6 Germany GER B 99% 99% 81% 81% 61% 61% 40% 40% 27% 27% 92.7 Japan JPN C 99% 99% 79% 79% 41% 41% 23% 23% 10% 10% 92.4 France FRA F 97% 97% 67% 67% 33% 33% 16% 16% 8% 8% 90.1 Canada CAN A 93% 93% 69% 69% 36% 36% 17% 17% 7% 7% 92.2 Brazil BRA E 98% 98% 51% 51% 28% 28% 15% 15% 6% 6% 91.6 Sweden SWE D 79% 79% 45% 45% 27% 27% 13% 13% 5% 5% 89.6 England ENG F 89% 89% 48% 48% 21% 21% 8% 8% 2% 2% 88.7 Norway NOR B 95% 95% 47% 47% 22% 22% 8% 8% 2% 2% 88.7 Australia AUS D 58% 58% 26% 26% 13% 13% 5% 5% 2% 2% 86.2 Netherlands NED A 69% 69% 33% 33% 10% 10% 3% 3% <1% <1% 85.2 China CHN A 64% 64% 28% 28% 7% 7% 2% 2% <1% <1% 84.7 Spain ESP E 77% 77% 20% 20% 6% 6% 2% 2% <1% <1% 85.7 Nigeria NGA D 38% 38% 13% 13% 5% 5% 2% 2% <1% <1% 83.7 Switzerland SWI C 87% 87% 34% 34% 7% 7% 2% 2% <1% <1% 84.3 South Korea KOR E 75% 75% 18% 18% 5% 5% 1% 1% <1% <1% 82.5 New Zealand NZL A 47% 47% 18% 18% 4% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 81.1 Mexico MEX F 48% 48% 11% 11% 3% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 79.3 Cameroon CMR C 71% 71% 18% 18% 3% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 78.0 Colombia COL F 32% 32% 6% 6% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 75.6 Ivory Coast CIV B 41% 41% 6% 6% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 68.0 Thailand THA B 14% 14% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 72.8 Costa Rica CRC E 20% 20% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 63.3 Ecuador ECU C 10% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%