January 17, 2019 Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer January 17, 2019, 3:58:23 PM EST

With winter storms wreaking havoc up and down the California coast and a major snowstorm about to blast the Northeast, could there be a more inopportune time for the longest government shutdown in American history? Reports from the Washington Post, CNN and others say the limitations on the National Weather Service (NWS) will make weather forecasts "worse" and that presents a "national security risk."

Not when there are alternative weather forecasting sources.

"All the government models are still running and all of the critical data from the U.S. and around the world is still coming in to our global forecasting center," said Dr. Joel N. Myers, AccuWeather founder and CEO. "AccuWeather has global models and data from arrangements with governments all over the world, as well as data from private sources. Many of these models from other countries also provide forecast guidance for the U.S.

"AccuWeather brings in more weather data and weather models into our facility than any other place on the planet," Myers added. "So, our forecasting operations have not been impacted, there has been no degradation of the documented superior accuracy of our forecasts to save lives, protect property and help people and businesses make better decisions."





Think of weather forecasting as an Olympic marathon with worldwide competitors pushing each other in a somewhat symbiotic way. If one runner slows and can't keep up for a stretch, the other runners' abilities aren't diminished and they don't stop -- the race goes on.

"We feel badly for our weather colleagues in government who are not getting paid during the shutdown," said Marshall Moss, AccuWeather vice president, Forecasting and Graphic Operations. "Like us, they're doing critical life-saving work and issuing public warnings and we hope they are paid soon.

"Importantly, we receive the data we need, not just from the NWS but from partners all over the world," Moss said. "We combine all of that data with artificial intelligence and the insights and perspectives of our more than 100 operational meteorologists to ensure that we are providing the best and most accurate forecasts to all locations at all times and that these forecasts are communicated in the most effective manner to help people make the decisions they need to make."

For example, AccuWeather MinuteCast, available on our free app, continues to provide the most relevant location-specific precipitation forecast, including start and stop times, with data updated every minute.

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As the Washington Post points out, the shutdown's effects on the NWS "could stretch well beyond when the government reopens." The NWS' long-term planning, particularly around hurricane forecasting for next season, may be affected by the inability to critique the previous hurricane season predictions and to prepare completely for the upcoming season. However, AccuWeather's planning for the next hurricane season continues unabated and has not been impacted.

CNN also confirmed that the NWS' global forecast model upgrade set for February is likely to be delayed due to the shutdown. AccuWeather, though, relies on more than 160 other worldwide models as well, including the highly regarded European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast.

Clearly, reports of the shutdown's effect on the NWS assume wrongly the government is the sole source for forecasting information.

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