By

1 Share Share Tweet Share Share Email

Four years ago, the Boston Bruins got then-restricted free agent Brad Marchand locked up on an affordable, four year deal.

Worth an annual average of $4.5 million per season, the deal was reasonable even at the time the Bruins signed it. Marchand had just finished putting up a 28-goal season with the Atlantic Division club, which was his second consecutive season with 20-plus goals (out of two collective full NHL seasons in his career at that point).

He had helped the team win a Stanley Cup one year earlier, and at just 24, there was still the potential to see him improve in the coming seasons.

That following year, Marchand would put up his only sub-20 goal season at the NHL level, racking up 18 goals during 45 games in the lockout-shortened year. That year was his final season of a two year, $2.5 million per season bridge deal.

Once the $4.5 million contract kicked in, Marchand would quickly become one of Boston’s core pieces.

In his first season of the four year contract, Marchand would put up 25 goals and 53 points in the regular season, good for third on the team in goals and fifth on the team in points. He would follow that up with a somewhat disappointing 24-goal season in 2014-15, then put up an impressive 37 goals and 60 points this past season.

Now, he’s asking for a hefty raise on his next deal.

Shawn Hutcheon of ESPN New Hampshire reported on Saturday evening that the undersized left winger is looking for a seven-year deal on his new extension, worth an estimated $49 million total. That would make him Boston’s second highest-paid forward, above even perennial Selke candidate Patrice Bergeron.

Given the value Bergeron brings to the Bruins — and the perception many have of Marchand as a supplementary winger likely to find himself in the penalty box — that seems like a steep ask.

In reality, though, it’s more than reasonable.

There are few different ways of looking at what a player deserves to be paid on a new deal, particularly one that comes with term. Teams can either consider prior services rendered (paying a formerly bargain piece with a substantial raise to make up for previously off-balance contracts), services in relation to the franchise as a whole, or potential for sustainability in services yet to come.

For some players, each of those asks is starkly different.

Take, for example, the recently-signed David Backes. Added to the Bruins in free agency earlier this July, the veteran center is being paid for prior services rendered and services in relation to the franchise.

In other words, the Bruins are paying the 32-year-old $6 million per season because he’s been a strong producer in the past, and because he fits in well with the team’s overall culture. Had the Bruins paid him based on the likelihood of sustained services in the future, his salary would more reasonably clock in around $4.5-5 million per season.

For Marchand, though, a $7 million ask actually fits all three potential salary figure considerations. That’s rare, but in this case, it’s a fact.

To start, Marchand has been starkly underpaid by the Bruins for the majority of his career.

While that shouldn’t be a huge consideration to teams in the cap era, it’s still noteable. The 28-year-old left winger has put up 21 or more goals in every season since 2010, excluding the lockout-shortened year – where he was on pace to put up 36 goals, firing off 18 goals in just half a season.

In that time, he’s been paid out a collective $23.765 million, including a $165,000 performance bonus in the final year of his entry-level contract.

That averages out to $3.96 million per season, far from what most perennial 20-30 goal scorers would make per season over a six-year span. If anyone is due a significant raise, it’s Marchand.

A big salary fits him from a culture standpoint as well, though.

Few duos in the NHL have been as remarkable or productive as Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron over the last six seasons, and it’s been proven that Marchand isn’t just riding on his center’s coattails, either.

Both players produce higher possession metrics when together than when apart, suggesting they work together to put up a stronger united front. Bergeron holds the edge in possession impact and defensive metrics when alone, but Marchand holds the edge in scoring.

With concrete, tangible proof that both players work together to make the team better as a whole, there’s merit in paying more to keep the pair together.

Finally, there’s the sustainability consideration – and once again, there’s reason to believe that Marchand checks out there, as well.

Earlier this season, I took a look at whether or not the Halifax native’s numbers were an anomaly. His 37 goals, after all, were a personal best by a full nine tallies, and when a player sees that much of an increase in a single season, checking the underlying numbers on that kind of output is simply due diligence.

All metrics suggested that the only major outlier in Marchand’s numbers, though, were in shot counts.

His shooting percentages and possession figures remained surprisingly consistent with those he’d put up in every season leading up to this last one. He found the back of the net on 14.8 percent of his overall recorded shots, just below his career average of 15 percent.

He also posted a Corsi For percentage of 53.92, which wasn’t enough of a downward tick from previous seasons to suggest it was the result of anything but outside forces, as the Bruins as a whole underperformed this season in relation to previous years.

The only thing that changed was how often he put the puck on the net, which translated to an increase in goals. With a jump from a career-high of 180 shots on goal in a single season to 250 last year, his goal totals seemed to increase almost solely on the merit of him taking more chances at scoring.

None of his numbers took an unrepeatable journey upwards, as shots on goal isn’t luck-driven, and none of his numbers took any kind of major downturn.

Heading into his 28-year-old season (Marchand won’t turn 29 until May 11th of 2017), it’s hard to argue that there’s any kind of red flag present that would suggest major regression before a new deal would be over.

It’s worth emphasizing, of course, that “capology” is both a game of numbers and a game of chance.

Leading into his current deal, Los Angeles Kings ex-captain Dustin Brown had given no indication that he was headed for a major production regression — yet sure enough, he’s currently considered one of the biggest financial eyesores in the NHL.

Mike Richards regressed far faster than anyone expected, as well, yet players like Shane Doan and Jaromir Jagr, who should have started to decline seasons ago, still seem to be going strong. Numbers can only do so much to predict how well a contract will play out, no matter how deeply a player is analyzed.

Pending free agents tend to go for high asks on the open market, though. Teams that don’t lock up free agents before they have a chance to test the waters often have trouble retaining the most valuable assets, even when they’re willing to pony up the cash.

With Marchand, though, paying out $7 million per season wouldn’t be shelling out extra cash to keep the antagonistic forward from shopping his services. In this case, it would be paying pretty reasonable price. While huge deals aren’t always fun to pay out, Boston should consider this one more than fair.

Column: Marchand’s $7 million ask is worth it