Ball State Head coach: Mike Neu (10-26, fourth year) 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 4-8 (119th) Projected 2019 record and S&P+ ranking: 4-8 (110th) Five key points: After getting destroyed by injuries in 2017, BSU was only HALF-destroyed by them last year. Progress! The Cardinals doubled their win total from two to four but experienced another second-half fade as depth got erased. Two years of constant shuffling have resulted in the most experienced and interesting two-deep BSU has had in quite some time. Stay even reasonably healthy, and a bowl run isn’t out of the question. It would be easier to feel optimistic if QB Riley Neal and RB James Gilbert hadn’t transferred, but the replacements (Drew Plitt and Edinboro transfer Walter Fletcher, respectively) are exciting. The pass defense could be something electric if a skinny defensive front can actually begin standing up to run blocking. Not a given.

“Last year’s pain is this year’s gain.” That was my positive spin in 2018’s Ball State preview. Mike Neu’s Cardinals got waylaid by injuries in a way few teams ever experience, and after showing a bit of promise during a 2-2 start in 2017, they got outscored by an average of 48-12 in eight conference losses. It felt like every starter got hurt and every freshman was thrust into action before he was ready. It was a mulligan season if ever one existed.

How much actual gain was there, though, after 2017’s pain? Perhaps not as much as one might hope. BSU did double its win total, beating Central Connecticut and three conference foes and acquitting itself well against Notre Dame and conference champ NIU.

Once again, though, there was a midseason fade, and once again it was injury-related: after beating CMU, 24-23, to move to 3-4 overall, the Cardinals dropped four of their last five games, all by at least 21 points. A promising defense cratered under the weight of injury, and the offense either wasn’t healthy enough or talented enough to pick up the slack.

I count as a defensive regular anyone who averages more than about 0.75 tackles per game (minus special teams tackles), and by my count, BSU had four defensive line regulars miss a combined 20 games, three linebacker regulars miss a combined 19, and three secondary regulars miss a combined 30. That’s not quite a 2017-level decimation, but it’s close.

Still, improvement is improvement, and technically Neu engineered a bit of it. His defense returns almost everybody — late-season contributors and injured regulars alike — and his offense returns almost the entire receiving corps and line. This was shaping up to be the year all the pieces come together until quarterback Riley Neal transferred to Vanderbilt and running back James Gilbert transferred to Kansas State. That added a couple of question marks Neu didn’t necessarily need.

Of course, this being Ball State, Neal missed three games to injury. His backup, Drew Plitt, posted comparable numbers. Gilbert’s backups were comparable, too. Neu added a prolific Division 2 grad transfer at running back, and if Plitt or redshirt freshman John Paddock can replicate Neal’s production (certainly not impossible), this will indeed be the deepest team Neu has yet had.

I spend a lot of time, both in these previews and on Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody, talking existentially about what FBS programs are capable of and what they might be able to build. I enjoy watching how coaches attempt to move their program forward, and I hate it when extenuating circumstances — large swaths of injury, sanctions, etc. — prevent them from executing their plan.

Over the last two seasons, we’ve barely been able to see Neu’s plan in action. We’ve seen through the years that despite the financial and geographical limitations that most MAC teams suffer, BSU is capable of pretty good football. The Cardinals surged to 24th in S&P+ during Brady Hoke’s 12-2 campaign in 2008 (that feels like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it?), and after briefly bottoming out under Stan Parrish, they won 19 games in 2012-13, peaking at 53rd.

Lembo’s last two seasons were a trial, though — they went 8-16 and fell back to 115th in 2015 — and after engineering first-year improvement (96th), Neu dealt with the last two years of injury. In theory, this is the year we begin to again find out what this program is capable of. The depth of experience is immense. But I said something similar last year, too.

Related The 2018 advanced college football stats glossary

Offense

Ball State’s offense in 2018 was ... a bit confusing. The Cardinals were a pass-first, pass-second attack for the most part — 104th in standard downs run rate, 96th in passing downs run rate — and while their standard downs passes didn’t go anywhere, they proved capable of catching back up to the chains.

They couldn’t avoid second- or third-and-long, but they were 23rd in passing downs marginal efficiency and 26th in blitz downs success rate. Their profile was that of a team that always ran for two yards on first down before opening things up ... only that’s not what they did.

Part of this strange dichotomy was because of Neal’s strengths and weaknesses — he was far from amazing at hitches and screen, but he could throw a nice, intermediate crossing route. At first glance, Plitt appears a little more accurate on the short stuff; we’ll see about the intermediate stuff. And of course, we’ll see if he can hold off Paddock or three-star freshman Eddie Schott to win the starting job. For now, I’ll assume he can.

Plitt will have a hell of a No. 1 receiver. If someone was reeling in a go route, it was probably Riley Miller, who ended up leading the team with 878 yards and seven touchdowns. His 14.4 yards per catch were second on the team to backup Yo’Heinz Tyler (16.1), and his marginal efficiency of plus-5.0 percent was second to Corey Lacanaria, the only primary receiver to depart.

The 6’3 Tyler only caught 14 passes in his freshman year, but he knew how to make a splash — he caught two passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns in his debut against Central Connecticut. He also had three for 45 against Toledo and three for 39 in the blowout win over Kent State. He could be ready for a second-year breakthrough, especially if Miller and junior slot man Justin Hall can establish a nice rapport with Plitt (or whoever). Sophomore Khalil Newton (12 catches for 183 in 2017) could also provide a nice burst after a redshirt year.

What made BSU’s standard downs struggles even more strange was that the Cardinals had a nice, efficient run game to lean on. Gilbert didn’t offer much in the explosiveness department, but 49 percent of his carries gained at least four yards, and BSU ranked 49th in rushing marginal efficiency. Backups Malik Dunner (47 percent) and Caleb Huntley (45 percent) weren’t far away in this regard. This was an impressive feat considering the juggling up front — nine linemen started at least one game, and only two (center Andrew Poenitsch and tackle Danny Pinter) started all 12.

Eight of the nine linemen are scheduled to return, as are Dunner and Huntley. But maybe the most intriguing name in the run game was playing in northwest Pennsylvania last year. Walter Fletcher comes to Muncie after rushing for 1,690 yards and 17 touchdowns at Edinboro University in 2018; he also caught 30 passes for 249 yards*.

The 6’0, 200-pounder averaged nearly 27 touches per game, a load awfully different than Gilbert’s (15.2). If he adapts to the new level of opposition, it will be interesting to see if longtime, pass-happy offensive coordinator Joey Lynch alters his run-pass preferences. Miller and Tyler could be awfully dangerous if opposing safeties are forced to actually care about the run game...

* I love stories like this. I reflexively dislike anything that puts smaller schools like Edinboro (or, in plenty of instances, Ball State) at a disadvantage, but grad transfers are wonderful when they come to giving guys like Fletcher a shot at a bigger spotlight.

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Defense

Here’s a list of Ball State’s full-2018 strengths:

You weren’t going to complete deep passes on the Cardinals. They were 12th in passing marginal explosiveness and 34th in open-play big-play rate. Granted, this would have been worth more if opponents actually had to throw the ball, but I digress. That last year’s top three safeties are scheduled to return is likely a very good thing.

Linebackers Ray Wilborn and Christian Albright were both disruptive and actually able to stay on the field. Through all the personnel changes and shifts in the rotation, Wilborn and Albright played in all 12 games and combined for 18.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, nine passes defensed, six forced fumbles, and 21 run stuffs. They were easily BSU’s two best havoc producers (TFLs, passes defensed, FFs), and they’re both scheduled to return.

That’s pretty much it. The run defense was egregious despite solid run stuffing efforts from the linebackers, and it got worse once injuries basically turned the two-deep into a one-deep.

Still, there are worse starting points than that, aren’t there? Third-year defensive coordinator David Elson has two excellent blitzers and seasoned safeties in Bryce Cosby, Brett Anderson II, and Myles Hannah. And while leading cornerback Josh Miller is gone, junior Antonio Phillips, sophomore Amechi Uzodinma, and redshirt freshman Tyler “Red” Potts (who played in four games and looked pretty good) all return. If the run defense holds up, the pass defense will play its part well.

It’s hard to get as optimistic about the run defense holding up. For one thing, this is a tiny line, or at least it was last year. Elson attempted a 3-4 structure, and that’s hard to do when your top two nose tackles weight 274 pounds (Chris Crumb) and 280 (Tuni Ropati). If one of three big sophomores (Emeka Jillani, Kyle Williams, or Poni Tu’uta) can better crack the rotation, it would be easier to feel good about this unit. Ends Shannon Hall and James Jennette III are decent, but they need more of an anchor in the middle.

Special Teams

Special teams had its bright spots, though they came mostly from Corey Lacanaria in punt returns (gone) and from place-kicker Morgan Hagee (also gone). Justin Hall and Malik Dunner have potential in the return game, and punter Patrick LeCorre kicks mostly unreturnable kicks (even if they’re also not incredibly long). That might be something to build around, but Hagee’s leg (he was 4-for-7 on field goals longer than 40 yards) could be missed.

2019 outlook

2019 Schedule & Projection Factors Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug vs. Indiana 46 -19.3 13% 7-Sep Fordham NR 29.0 95% 14-Sep Florida Atlantic 79 -9.1 30% 21-Sep at N.C. State 47 -21.7 10% TBD Central Michigan 122 8.1 68% TBD Miami (Ohio) 93 -5.5 38% TBD Ohio 82 -8.5 31% TBD Toledo 78 -9.1 30% TBD at Eastern Michigan 96 -9.0 30% TBD at Kent State 111 -1.7 46% TBD at Northern Illinois 76 -14.8 20% TBD at Western Michigan 75 -14.9 19% Projected S&P+ Rk 110 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 105 / 111 Projected wins 4.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -13.5 (114) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 116 2018 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -4 / -3.5 2018 TO Luck/Game -0.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 76% (68%, 85%) 2018 Second-order wins (difference) 3.1 (0.9)

If anyone has earned a season with some good injuries luck, it’s Ball State. The god of randomness doesn’t care about what you think you’ve earned, but if the Cardinals stay at least reasonably healthy, they’ll have the pieces to at least begin executing Neu’s plan. The former Ball State and New Orleans VooDoo quarterback really did a nice job in his debut season, and the last two years have been almost all bad.

A BSU team that retains most of its two-deep and plays at a top-100 level or so could find quite a few wins on the slate. All six home games come against teams projected 78th or worse in S&P+, and a road trip to Kent State is obviously winnable, too. If the Cardinals actually enjoy some good breaks, a 6-6 or 7-5 finish isn’t out of the question.

That’s pretty optimistic spin for this program, though. BSU went to four bowls in seven years around the turn of the decade, but the Cardinals have now gone five years without. And while I think Neu still has promise, it takes a leap of faith to believe that — he’s got 10 wins in three seasons to show for his efforts.

Still, this should be a learning year. After a mulligan-filled couple of seasons, BSU has more experience on both its first and second string than it has had in a long time. And if the Cardinals don’t take a couple of steps forward, they might be asking a new head coach to give it a shot next fall.

Team preview stats

All 2019 preview data to date.