#BrentfordFC v #LeedsUtdFC Tues Griffin Park 7.45pm

It’s 5th v 2nd next in the Championship, as Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United roll into town. Coming off the back of contrasting results and very different endings to each other's previous outings, this game feels huge for a multitude of reasons.

Leeds are in a slump in terms of results, most recently Nottingham Forested 2-0 at the City Ground.

The defeat played out in strikingly similar fashion to the recent 1-0 defeat Brentford suffered to Forest in the fixture at Griffin Park. Had Grabban fully connected with a big chance gifted to him in West London, the scoreline would have given the matches an even eerier likeness.

The Bees enter into this fixture off the back of a fine late win in which striker Ollie Watkins delivered his 20th goal of the season, as he placed home his only shot of the match to score an 87th minute winner to bury a valiant Boro side who drew back level twice.

For Brentford, this feels like an opportunity. A chance to realize in league position some of the hard work that has gone into clawing back the runaway top two.

Regression, in West Broms’ case, has played its part, while Leeds have hit a patch of bad luck that makes you want to beg for a hole in the ground to swallow you up.

For this fixture, our friends over at @AllStatsArentWe have helped colour in the Leeds angle on the game.

As Championship fixtures go, Leeds’ final trip to Brentford’s Griffin Park could hardly look less evenly matched. What was being touted as the match between the two best teams in the division only a few months ago has now become a fixture that Thomas Frank described as something of a nightmare for Marcelo Bielsa’s outfit: ‘they couldn't pick a worse place to play Tuesday night.’

Things have changed a lot from the earlier meeting between these two sides which saw Leeds come away with all three points at Elland Road. Most importantly, Brentford have ditched their 3-man-defence and Leeds have lost all vestige of their dominance in games that saw them comfortably top of the table out of the blocks. Instead of the tactic that he employed at the start of the season, Thomas Frank has his side playing more patiently, comfortable to allow the opposition possession of the ball and hit them on the break.

Leeds have suffered from an opposite problem: facing teams who are comfortable to retreat into a deep-lying defensive configuration, Leeds have managed to unpick the lock but too often they’ve been let down by poor finishing. Last weekend, a lacklustre Leeds gave away two goals to a Forest side equally happy to bide their time before breaking at speed.

Leeds will line up in their customary 4-1-4-1 with Kalvin Phillips returning to the squad after a red card picked up against QPR. This will make a world of difference for a team who are looking thin on the ground in the midfield.

Expect Leeds to maintain possession of the ball, working it in quick transitions down the wings and looking to isolate the Brentford full backs against Helder Costa or Jack Harrison in wide areas. Using Pablo Hernandez as a fulcrum, Leeds will overload the right-hand side of the pitch, giving Harrison space to receive the switch, receiving back up from his corresponding full back.

By nature of this committal forwards, Brentford will have plenty of chances to strike back down the Leeds left--the area where the majority of the goals from open play have originated this season for Leeds. Other than that, set pieces are a weakness. Both Ethan Pinnock and Pontus Jansson will be licking their lips at the prospect.

Of course, it would be tempting to let the narrative take its toll on this one: Leeds have been going through a painful period and Brentford look imperious in their recent performances. But as we know, Leeds’ poor results have been compounded by a porous back-line and woefully underperforming goalkeeper, and a mind-boggling failure to convert chances at the other end. There is nothing to say that Tuesday’s fixture won’t be the moment that ‘the luck swings the other way’ for the respective teams.

But then, it has felt like this all season. And at some point, the narrative cannot continue to be tempered by caveats. Perhaps there is something lying unaccounted for beneath the numbers?

You can follow all things data and tactical Leeds via the links below

https://medium.com/@allstatsarentwe

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So how do Brentford stop Leeds and how do Leeds stop Brentford?

As Leeds welcome back Kalvin Philips, we should see a return to their main high intensity 4-1-4-1 system.

The idea behind this is verticality and flexibility when in possession which at any stage allows either full backs or midfielders to in an instance turn into an advanced attacker.

There is no time for switching off against this side and it’s incredibly difficult to control them for 90mins. Dallas could be a late weapon deployed by Bielsa to chase or close out the game and these types of progressive runs can punish poor pressing or midfield gaps.

Leeds will make consistent attempts to win the ball high up the pitch and if this line is broken, Phillips and Klich look to quickly control situations as the ball moves into the middle third.

Out of possession, Rico Henry, Norgaard and Benrahma need to be wise to the Leeds overload on the right hand side.

This is the position Hernandez will look to get onto the ball and draw focus away from the left. As Leeds attract defensive bodies to the right side of the pitch to deal with this threat, Harrison will use these moments to try and get 1v1 in the Brentford full back area to test not only Dalsgaard attention, but his body shape and positioning on the ball-far side.

Brentford with less frequency try to use a similar tactic themselves. Mbeumo and Benrahma naturally come into possession of the ball on their stronger right and left sides respectively.

There is slightly more balance to the wide attacks of Brentford. Henry and Benrahma combine on the left so that the Algerian can work himself into shooting positions testing the goalkeeper and the opposition right back area. Mbeumo will replicate this on the right hand side, similarly backed up by Dalsgaard.

But alongside this, Brentford can overload the wide areas themselves. Leeds will have to be aware as Dasilva and Jensen drift forward into the left and right spaces following their own passes towards the edge of the area instead of making major off the ball running movements which is part of the solidity Frank has built into this side.

For a side as technical as Leeds in the way they rotate and manipulate space, a large part of their attacking play simply comes from crossing. Leeds have made almost 200 more crosses than any other side in the division, with Jack Harrison their most prolific in this area.

Across the last 5 games you can get a picture below of how much both sides cross and from where.

There is no hidden formula to winning football matches. There is no divine right that says you walk out onto the field, you dominate and then you win.

Bielsa is in his second season in charge at Elland Road, and with that you get a system that is even more honed than the previous iteration. The pain in the way last season transpired against Leeds still haunts them, and within the constraints of FFP and strict squad limitations the Argentine places upon himself, they're doing everything within their power to get it right this time of asking. As misfortune grows on the pitch, cracks that were skipped beyond before become magnified amongst the fan base as the fear of failure and a recurrence of last season doesn’t sit quietly, boxed in a corner as a small possibility, it screams out in apparent inevitability.

Frank too is in his second season and this iteration of Brentford is greater than anything that has gone on before. Questions over the defence in both open play and set pieces in the absence of Pontus Jansson will of course persist but nothing can be done except trying to limit situations that expose your weaknesses as much as you can.

We’re a little wary of the Leeds falling apart narrative and not really buying any of it. Bamford appears to be struggling in front of goal as the team's goal burden falls mainly on his shoulders with little help from his supporting cast. Brentford, however, can rely on the all round production of a regular goalscoring front 3 and growing midfield to ease the pressure on Watkins, not that he needs it. Watkins with 20 goals is almost approaching double the tally of his Leeds opposite number, as Bamford struggles to align his expected and actual totals.

Fortune hasn’t been kind to Leeds in recent weeks while Brentford look to be moving towards a crescendo, but even so, Leeds are still an outstanding side, dangerous in nature and led by one of the greatest coaches in world football, let alone to manage in this division.

Whatever the scoreline at 10pm on Tuesday evening, there is still a lot of football to be played.

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