It’s not a matter of if but when wildfire will rip through the bucolic countryside being eyed for an opulent master-planned community, known as Adara at Otay Ranch.

The chaparral landscape was scorched in 2007 by the historically destructive Harris Fire, and the surrounding area has experienced wildfire every 18 months on average for the last century, according to records from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire.

Developers say that when the next blaze comes the community’s roughly 4,000 residents will be able to safely evacuate along the two-lane road that runs through rolling hills between Jamul and Chula Vista.


Adara’s designers, the Jackson Pendo Development Company, have also maintained that the project’s more than 1,100 homes will be built using the latest fire-resistant technology and protected from flames by firefighters stationed at an on-site facility.

Opponents say the developer’s evacuation plan is deeply flawed and that it’s irresponsible to put people in harm’s way.

The Harris Fire in October 2007 was one of the most destructive wildfires in California history. (Earnie Grafton / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Backcountry development debate


Since the Camp Fire ripped through the town of Paradise in November, moving at speeds of up to a football field a second, a chorus of wildfire experts have called for a statewide discussion to identify locations too dangerous to construct new homes.

“We desperately need to have a deep dialog about why we continue to build deep into the fire zones,” said Char Miller, a professor of environmental analysis at Pomona College and a widely recognized expert on wildfire policy.

So far, that debate has yet to spark, including in Southern California where Santa Ana winds routinely whip flames at frightening speeds through chaparral-covered landscapes and into residential neighborhoods.

San Diego County officials have over the last year backed the proposed development of eight new sprawling housing developments — totaling 10,000 new units — all planned for fire-prone areas. The county Board of Supervisors approved a hotly contested plan that would allow the developers involved to purchase so-called carbon credits to avoid restrictions on greenhouse gases.


Adara at Otay Ranch is the latest of those projects up for consideration, with county supervisors slated to cast their votes next month.

Cal Fire Deputy Chief David Nissen, who runs the community risk reduction program for the San Diego County Fire Authority, said he would feel safe living in Adara at Otay Ranch.

“We’re going to continue to have fires,” he said. “They’re going to be a part of people’s lives in Southern California and California generally. It’s what we do to adjust to minimize risk.”


Environmental groups, led by the San Diego chapter of the Sierra Club, have vowed to block the housing developments in court on several grounds — from climate impacts to habitat loss to wildfire threats. Projects already approved by the county and facing legal challenges include Newland Sierra, Valiano, Harmony Grove Village South and Otay 250 Sunroad.

“Fire is front and center of our concerns,” said Peter Andersen, head of the Sierra Club’s local chapter and a Jamul resident. “This is a classic sprawl development that should not be built, and we’ll do everything including in court to make sure this project doesn’t happen.”

Adara at Otay Ranch

The 1,283-acre, 1,119-home development would be surrounded by open space, including the San Diego National Wildlife Refuge. It would feature a school site, commercial space, law enforcement storefront and its own fire station.


The Jackson Pendo Development Company contracted with the planning company Dudek to help draft fire protection and evacuation plans.

The documents recognize the inevitable threat of wildfire, while laying out a strategy to address the potential for tragedy: “The site fire risk analysis resulted in the determination that wildfire has occurred and will likely occur near the project area again, but the proposed project would provide ignition-resistant landscape and structures, and defensible space with implementation of specified safety measures.”

To help minimize impacts, flammable vegetation would be cleared within 100 feet of structures, creating what’s referred to as a fuel-modification zone. Houses would be built using the latest in fire-safe technology, including automatic indoor sprinklers, specially treated walls and ember-resistant vents.

Such measures are required under state and local building codes as houses can ignite during wildfires even when flames don’t reach the structures. During large blazes, thousands of softball-sized embers often crash into homes at high speeds, making their way into vents and other openings.


Opponents of the project, including the Endangered Habitats League, Center for Biological Diversity and Sierra Club, have argued that wildfire can overwhelm even the best planning.

“People say that in San Diego everywhere’s dangerous, but not like this place,” said Dan Silver, executive director of the Endangered Habitats League. “This is a leapfrog into the wildness, surrounded by wildlands on all sides, with one road going in and out.”

Elizabeth Jackson, the lead developer on the project for Jackson Pendo Development Company, declined multiple interview requests for this story, but she provided this statement in an email:

“The fire evacuation plan was prepared by fire science experts based upon the San Diego County Emergency Operations Plan and reviewed and accepted by the San Diego County Fire Authority.”


The burned out hulks of cars abandoned by their drivers sit along a road in Paradise, Calif., on April 18, 2018. The scale of disaster in the Camp Fire was unprecedented, but the scene of people fleeing wildfire was familiar, repeated numerous times over the past three years up and down California from Redding and Paradise to Santa Rosa, Ventura and Malibu. (Rich Pedroncelli/AP)

The Evacuation Plan

After more than 2,700 residents of Paradise found themselves trapped in traffic fleeing the most deadly blaze in the state’s history, evacuation routes have come under more scrutiny.

A USA Today-California Network analysis from April found that in the state’s most fire-prone communities there are on average one lane of traffic for every 134 residents. Paradise had more than 1,000 people per lane, and many communities have two or three times that number along evacuation routes.


According to the analysis, among the state’s most difficult areas to escape in a wildfire are Jamul and surrounding areas. Adara would no doubt also fall into this category.

Proctor Valley Road between Jamul and Chula Vista would be the only road servicing an estimated 4,122-person community. Under the proposal, the two-lane, gravel road would be paved and a raised median would be added to the center.

The developer’s evacuation plan found that residents would likely escape a blaze in about three hours, even if fire blocked the road going into Jamul and everyone were forced to flee south. That would include an hour and a half to mobilize people into their cars once the evacuation order has been given.

“We feel that the road network is more than adequate to get folks out,” said Nissen with Cal Fire. “We’ve really refined the evacuation process over the last year.”


Opponents of the plan pointed out the analysis relies on residents being evacuated in staggered fashion, which may not be possible if the fire starts in close proximity to the community.

They also point out that the report doesn’t take into account the potential for added traffic if Jamul is simultaneously evacuated or a scenario where the road into Chula Vista is blocked by fire and everyone is forced to evacuate to the north.

“It was flawed by overly optimistic assumptions,” said Neal Liddicoat, a traffic engineer at Griffin Cove Transportation Consulting hired by Endangered Habitats League to review the plan.

“They’ve failed to reflect the fact that it’s an emotional situation where people might make irrational decisions, that people might see smoke, they may see flames, and won’t react in the same way they do in a typical drive,” he added.


The Dudek analysis acknowledged that a fire that starts near the community would pose a serious threat but provides few details on how to address the situation other than to have residents shelter in place.

The report reads: “It is preferred to evacuate long before a wildfire is near, and in fact, history indicates that most human fatalities from wildfires are due to late evacuations when they are overtaken on roads.”

