Let’s kick it back to the old school. It’s been a while since I went back to my 90s hip hop roots and tied in fantasy baseball. If you don’t get the reference, sit back, relax and kick it with Black Sheep. I’m going to compare a set of hitters who, on draft day, were over 100 spots apart. I will show two tables. The first will go over each players’ standard fantasy categories and the second will show the Statcast data. I’ll follow up with a discussion on how I feel about both players going forward in 2019. Let’s keep in mind, I do like both players and am not devaluing either of them going forward. I’m showing how impressive these slow starters actually are.

Player AVG R HR RBI SB Rhys Hoskins 0.273 20 9 25 0 Franmil Reyes 0.235 9 8 14 0

OK, so both had eight home runs (Hoskins hit his ninth last night) but Hoskins has the clear advantage in runs and RBI as well as batting average. Is this really all that close? Hoskins actually has more than 30 plate appearances than Reyes which explains the advantage in R + RBI. The fact that both are tied in home runs tells me that Reyes has some massive power. But, he doesn’t play every day because the Padres have five outfielders. Hoskins, on the other hand, plays every day and hits cleanup for the Phillies. That’s a huge advantage for Hoskins. What if I told you that from this point forward, these two would provide similar value? Let’s check the Statcast numbers.



Player LA LD/FB EV (MPH) BRL/PA AVG HR Dist xwOBA Rhys Hoskins 23.8 95.1 5.50% 377 Ft 0.344 Franmil Reyes 15.9 97.3 14.30% 402 Ft 0.441

Depending on how you interpret these Statcast numbers, Reyes gets the clear advantage in all metrics. Some might argue that Hoskins gets the advantage in terms of launch angle but a portion can be attributed to an elevated 12.7% popup rate. Meanwhile, Reyes has done a great job of avoiding the near-automatic out by popping up just 3.1% of the time. In fact, Reyes’ fly ball rate per BaseballSavant is actually two percent higher than Hoskins (34.4% for Reyes and 32.4% for Hoskins). Regarding approach and plate discipline, Hoskins is by far the better option. In OBP leagues, Hoskins is the clear winner. However, if Reyes and Hoskins were to receive the same number of plate appearances going forward, there’s no doubt Reyes would have more home runs. Unfortunately, there’s the playing time issue is San Diego. I am hoping this plays itself out in the upcoming months and the Padres trade at least one of their current outfielders. Either way, here my thoughts on Reyes.

Franmil is one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. He’s in the top 6% in exit velocity, xwOBA, and xSLG. He’s in the top 10% in hard hit% and more surprisingly, in the top 10% in xBA. Given his current .233 average, one has to wonder what’s going on? It’s the BABIP which sits at a lowly .200. He has increased his FB% by a whopping 17% (nearly 11 degrees on his average launch angle since 2018). It’s a valuable increase in elevating the ball as he hasn’t hit an infield fly ball (per FanGraphs) and the aforementioned 3.1% PU rate.

This approach should provide Franmil with plenty of home runs. I’d put his ceiling at 45 HR given 600 PA this year. No, that’s not a joke but given the depth in the Padres outfield and his poor defense, he’ll probably reach somewhere around 475-500. That should still yield close to 35 homers for big Fran. He’s also changed his approach. He’s swinging at everything. His swing rate is up 10% and he’s swinging outside the zone 38.8% of the time up from 31.7%. It’s not all bad because his zone-swing percentage is up 11% To 81%! His overall contact rates remain relatively steady. The aggressive approach has helped cut his K% because he isn’t getting himself into as many deep counts. That’s great for his overall production but pitchers will adjust. Unfortunately, luck has dug him into a batting average hole but I think he can hit .250-.260 with huge power upside. If he finds himself in an everyday role, he could be a top 75 player this year.

Player AVG R HR RBI SB Daivd Peralta 0.315 19 4 20 0 Jesse Winker 0.234 17 8 13 0

I know what you’re thinking, why are you choosing these boring hitters without any speed? In fantasy baseball, the players with power + speed tools are always scooped up while the Peralta-types get left on waivers and are devalued. I’m of course talking about Peralta prior to last season’s breakout. Thus far in 2019, Winker has shown more power but Peralta gets the clear edge elsewhere. Both players are hitting in top third of their respective lineups but the Diamondbacks have gotten off to a better start. In both the preseason and likely right now, most fantasy owners would prefer Peralta to Winker. Let’s take a look at the Statcast metrics.

Player LA LD/FB EV (MPH) BRL/PA AVG HR Dist xwOBA David Peralta 8.1 94.8 3.70% 407 Ft 0.297 Jesse Winker 10.3 94 5.60% 384 Ft 0.381

Honestly, they aren’t all that different until you get to the last row. Winker’s expected wOBA is nearly .090 points higher! Walks are factors into wOBA, so Winker gets the edge there but he’s only walking 4.6% more often than Peralta, so there’s something else at play here. Oh, there it is. Peralta’s BABIP is currently an unsustainable .391. He’s also been a little more aggressive this year but mostly on pitches outside the zone. That’s caused his strikeout and walk rates to go in the opposite directions. Peralta is still a very good contact hitter and has shown that he can muscle up with some power. I just think Winker is the guy that should be hitting .315 while Peralta should be closer to .275. Going forward, Peralta is a bit of a sell and of course you know Winker is a buy.

Here are my thoughts in Winker from the preseason. Here are my thoughts now.

Winker is trading some patience for power this year. He’s seen his walk rate dip by four percent while his strikeout rate has increased by about the same amount. He’s only increased his swing rate by four percent and it’s all going to pitches inside the zone (which is great). His swinging strike rate and contact rates are nearly identical to 2018. I’d expect Winker’s walk rate to rise a little based on this approach. He’s also stinging the ball with hard contact rate of near 50% and his line drive rate is a healthy 26%. Even with his poor foot speed, you’d expect an elevated BABIP. Instead, his BABIP sits at a measly .200.

Winker is being shifted on more in 2019, up to 40% of the time this year compared to just 19% in 2018. His batting average and wOBA have taken a hit thanks to the shift. What doesn’t make sense is his 0.063 BABIP on fly balls and an extremely low .368 BABIP on liners. For reference, his career BABIP on line drives is .681 which matches closely with league-wide average. If we only regress his BABIP on line drives back to his career rate, he’d be hitting .293, LOL. That doesn’t factor in the unlucky BABIP on fly balls. Look, Winker is about to go nuts, he’s already proven that the power is real, although he won’t maintain anything near a 33% HR/FB going forward. Winker likely ends the year near .300 with 25+ homers with a possibility of 30 long balls. Isn’t that what you were hoping for from Corey Seager this year?

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