In what is being seen as bad news for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Madhya Pradesh led by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the state intelligence department has predicted victory for the Congress party in the forthcoming assembly elections.

In a secret report that was submitted to the CM on October 30, the intelligence department predicted that the Congress party is ahead of the ruling BJP in 128 of the 230 Vidhan Sabha seats. The BJP is likely to win 92 seats, while Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is ahead in six seats, and Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) is ahead in three seats. Whereas, the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) is ahead in one seat, said the report that has been accessed by India Today.

The report also said that ten state ministers including Rustam Singh, Maya Singh, Gauri Shankar Shejwar and Surya Prakash Meena have slim chances of winning. Interestingly, Surya Prakash Meena, who is considered to be very close to CM Chouhan, has withdrawn from the race for the party ticket. On November 1, two days after the report was submitted to the CM, Meena announced that he will not be contesting elections.

The other ministers in the report, who were predicted to lose, are pressurising the party for a ticket but will likely be dropped.

According to the report, the Congress is ahead in 24 of the 34 seats in the Gwalior Chambal division, while the BJP is ahead only in seven seats. The BSP is ahead in the remaining three seats.

In Bundelkhand, the BJP is ahead in 13 of the 26 seats, while the Congress is ahead in 12 seats, the SP is ahead in one seat.

In Vindhya, the Congress is ahead in 18 of the 30 seats while the BJP is ahead in nine seats. On three seats, the BSP is said to be ahead of the others.

In Mahakoshal, the Congress is strong in 22 of the 38 seats while the BJP is leading in 13 seats. The SP is ahead in two seats while the GGP is ahead in the remaining one seat.

In the Madhya Bharat, the report shows both the Congress and the BHJ ahead in 18 seats each.

In the Malwa-Nimar region -- the epicentre of farmer agitation in which six people were killed in police firing - the Congress has a slight advantage with a possible victory for its candidates in 34 seats, while the BJP is ahead in 32 seats.

This comes in the backdrop of the BJP releasing the first list of 177 candidates for Madhya Pradesh elections. CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan will contest from Budhni, state ministers Narottam Mishra and Yashodhara Raje Scindia will contest from Datia and Shivpuri respectively.

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