As talks escalate to settle thousands of opioid-related lawsuits nationwide, a harsh reality is emerging: The money the pharmaceutical industry will pay to compensate ravaged communities will likely be far less than once envisioned.

Lawyers on all sides have been stepping up efforts to reach a national agreement before the start of a New York trial next month. But even plaintiff lawyers now believe the payout from dozens of opioid makers, distributors and retailers is likely to be less than half of what the four Big Tobacco companies agreed to pay more than 20 years ago in a landmark settlement with states over costs associated with millions of smoking-related deaths.

Whatever the final amount, it will certainly fall well short of what public health experts say is needed to heal the long-term effects of the opioid crisis.

The tobacco settlement of 1998 totaled more than $206 billion over 25 years. When pressed to name the dollar figure he was swinging for, Joe Rice, the chief negotiator for thousands of cities and counties suing the pharmaceutical industry who was also instrumental in wresting the tobacco settlement, conceded in an interview: “People would say I was crazy if I thought we could get over $100 billion.”