Will Scott Walker be an ex-governor sooner than one might have thought? Photograph: Pool/REUTERS



Lots of folks are buzzing today about the NYT poll:

Americans oppose weakening the bargaining rights of public employee unions by a margin of nearly two to one: 60 percent to 33 percent. While a slim majority of Republicans favored taking away some bargaining rights, they were outnumbered by large majorities of Democrats and independents who said they opposed weakening them. Those surveyed said they opposed, 56 percent to 37 percent, cutting the pay or benefits of public employees to reduce deficits, breaking down along similar party lines. A majority of respondents who have no union members living in their households opposed both cuts in pay or benefits and taking away the collective bargaining rights of public employees.

Heartening numbers, to be sure. But they're national numbers, probably disproportionately including blue staters, since the blue states have most of the population. The more relevant thing here would be to find numbers from Wisconsin, right, since that's where we face the matter at hand. There, perhaps, in the land of Joe McCarthy, things might look better for Scott Walker? Not so much. From TPM:

A majority of Wisconsin voters now disapprove of Walker's job performance, a reversal from the positive approval rating he enjoyed immediately after election day. Further, most voters support collective bargaining rights for the state's public employee unions, and oppose Walker's proposal to cut those same rights. In the poll, 57% of respondents said public employees should have the right to collectively bargain, compared to 37% who said they should not. A similar majority, 55%, said the state's unions should have the same amount of rights or more than they already enjoy, a rebuke to Walker's efforts to roll back those rights. Further, slim majorities said they side with the unions and senate Democrats -- who fled the state to delay a vote on Walker's bill -- over the governor in the dispute. Walker's job approval has fallen as the budget stalemate drags on. According to PPP, 52% of voters now disapprove of his job performance, while 46% approve of the job he is doing. That split mirrors another finding in the poll that PPP released Monday, which found Walker losing in a hypothetical do-over election against Democrat Tom Barret, 52% to 45%. Also ominously for the governor, the state is evenly split at 48% over whether he should be recalled.

Recalled! Now I like the sound of that. How about Governor Feingold? Has a nice ring to it. Don't forget that in addition to McCarthy, Wisconsin is the land of William Proxmire, the La Follettes, and loads of liberals. Walker could not be recalled, however, until next year by law.

There are, however, recall petitions being circulated right now involving eight Republican state senators. Reports FireDogLake:

There will absolutely be recall elections for many of the "Republican 8″ state Senators who can be recalled immediately. The organizing for this has already begun; a Democratic strategist in the state found the Republican 8 vulnerable to recall because of the heightened passions around the issue. This will also happen on the Democratic side; a group from Utah has already begun that process. You will see many recall elections in the coming year, putting the closely divided state Senate up for grabs in Wisconsin.

I'm not sure I'm wild about this idea in principle - recalling legislators who have committed no act of malfeasance or misfeasance that disgraced their office. If the threat makes a couple of these people oppose this bill, well, that's political pressure, and that's how the game is played.

What I still haven't read, and if any of you have please enlighten us, is specific information about which GOPers in the state senate might be persuaded to vote against the plan. Because as I keep saying, unfortunately, Walker has the votes.

But now it's clear from the PPP poll that even if he does succeed in pushing this through, perhaps especially if he does succeed in pushing this through, he's going to pay a huge political price in that state. Reports that Wisconsin had turned red are apparently (despite the Badgers' colors, I know) premature.

