See the updates. Trump and Cruz won Arizona and Utah outright. Overall, a subpar performance by Kasich. No gifts today.

Today, John Kasich potentially gives the first of a series of gifts to Donald Trump. What’s inside the box? Maybe 58 delegates – from Arizona, which is winner-take-all.

Trump leads the last three surveys done in Arizona. His median support is 37% and his median lead over second-place Ted Cruz is 13 percentage points. In addition, a combined 17-27% goes to Kasich and Rubio (several surveys were done before Rubio dropped out). Previously I pointed out that when reassigned, Kasich/Rubio supporters heavily favor Cruz over Trump. If we reassign those voters in a 4:1 ratio, the resulting medians are Trump 42.4%, Cruz 44.6%. This 2-percentage-point difference is small, and would slightly favor Cruz to win.

My calculations the other day suggested that if Kasich dropped out of winner-take-all states after Ohio, this would cost Trump between 200 and 250 delegates because anti-Trump voters would likely consolidate around Ted Cruz. No matter what happens today, that difference between the scenarios of Trump v. Cruz v. Kasich and Trump v. Cruz will decrease, as one winner-take-all state falls by the wayside. Tick, tock.

Cruz might win Utah outright – though if he falls below 50%, again Trump should thank Kasich.

Follow tonight’s returns in Arizona , Hawaii, and Utah here.

Update, 11:20pm: early returns are looking stronger for Trump than expected from pre-election polls. One reason: early voting, which began before the most recent polls were taken, shows some Rubio strength. Therefore a more-divided vote than expected given the current state of the race.

4:15am: It looks like Trump did not need anyone’s help in Arizona after all. With 91% of precincts reporting, the vote is Trump 47%, Cruz 25%, Rubio 14%, Kasich 10%. Kasich underperformed his polls (last poll 17%, 3-poll median 15%).

Ted Cruz won Utah outright with 64% (53% in last survey). Again Kasich did not affect the outcome, with 17% of the vote (29% in last survey).

At this rate, Trump isn’t going to have any trouble getting to a majority of delegates.