By ROBERT RIZZUTO and SHIRA SCHOENBERG

Candidate Support by region

Western Massachusetts

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SPRINGFIELD — With 50 days left until Massachusetts voters decide who will represent them in the U.S. Senate for the next six years, Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren has pulled ahead of Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, according to a new poll.

The survey of Bay State voters conducted Sept. 6-13 by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican and MassLive.com, shows Warren leading over Brown, 50 to 44 percent, among likely voters.

The gap among registered voters is even larger, according to the survey, which concluded Warren leads 53 to 41 percent. The poll of 545 registered voters has a 4.2 percent margin of error, while the sample of 444 likely voters has a 4.6 percent margin of error.

Tim Vercellotti, professor of political science and director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University, said Warren's lead comes in part from the fact that she's shored up support among Democrats to 89 percent, while losing only six percent of her party's support to Brown.

Part of that bump, he said, may be attributable to the fact that polling started at the end of the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., and just two days after Warren delivered a prime-time speech ahead of former President Bill Clinton at the event.

"This may be not just due to her speech, but the overall enthusiasm Democrats have had coming out of their convention," Vercellotti said. "The data shows that Democrats are more fired up right now than independents or Republicans."

If Warren's lead is indeed a post-convention bump, Vercellotti said only time will tell if it lasts.

"When we poll again in the next couple of weeks, we will see if her numbers remain steady among Democrats, which may demonstrate that the party is unified under a continuing narrative that will carry on throughout the election season," Vercellotti said.

Brown continues to run strong among his base, with support from 91 percent of Republicans and only four percent of GOP voters gravitating to Warren. Brown holds a healthy 22-point lead among independents, but for now, that is not enough to overcome Warren’s strength among Democrats.

Brown's campaign has worked hard to win over independent voters, who make up more than 52 percent of the commonwealth's electorate. As of August, 35 percent of Massachusetts residents were registered Democrats and 11 percent were registered Republicans.

A Congressional Quarterly study designating Brown the second-most bipartisan legislator in the U.S. Senate in 2011 has been a boasting point as he has worked to portray himself as the Republican who works across the aisle to bridge the gap in an increasingly divided Washington. Brown has also consistently racked up endorsements from notable Democrats across the commonwealth, including former Springfield Mayor Charles Ryan and former Lowell Mayor Rita Mercier, which may boost his popularity with unaffiliated voters.

And with 21 percent of likely independent voters saying they might change their minds, compared to 15 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans, it is a strong possibility that those voters will be the ones to sway the election.

Warren has pointed out Brown's votes she says negatively affect women's rights and worked to tie him to what Democrats call the Republican "war on women." But the junior senator has moved in-step to combat such charges both in words and through TV ads, including one showing Brown as a family man cooking in the kitchen.

The poll concludes that Warren now holds support from 55 percent of the women likely to vote while 40 percent are backing Brown. Five percent say they are still undecided.

Barbara Cappello, an independent voter from East Longmeadow, said she is leaning toward Warren, and has been swayed by the campaign's focus on women's issues.

“I certainly think that women should be paid equally for equal jobs, they have the right to choose what happens to their own bodies,” Cappello said, echoing statements Warren has made on the campaign trail. “I think it puts me more on her side than his. Maybe it’s because she is a woman, I don’t know.”

Brown's female support has included a growing "Women for Brown" coalition, and his wife, Gail Huff, has also taken time away from her job as a TV reporter in Washington to campaign on her husband's behalf.

Brown remains ahead by five percentage points among men, 49 percent to 44 percent.

While support for each candidate also varies by region, the poll concludes that Western Massachusetts is strongly leaning toward Warren 61 percent to 33 percent – a huge margin, given Warren’s six-point lead among likely voters overall.

Vercellotti said Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties contain 13 percent of the voting population in the state, but are heavily Democratic. In 2008, for example, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama beat Republican John McCain by 26 points statewide but 36 points in Western Massachusetts.

Brandon Charin, 38, a stock market trader from Longmeadow, said he plans to vote for Warren largely because he dislikes Republican policies.

“It’s not really so much Warren versus Brown as it is Democrat versus Republican,” Charin said.

In central Massachusetts, which has historically voted more conservatively, Brown holds an impressive lead over Warren with likely voters, 50 to 38 percent. That margin, when considering the higher concentration of people in the middle part of the state compared to the west, may hold more of a blessing for Brown than Warren's blowout here.

And while Brown holds a two percentage point margin over Warren in the North and South Shores (grouped together), likely voters in Boston and its suburbs are supporting the Harvard Law school professor over Brown 52-43 percent.

The candidates are roughly even in favorability among likely voters, with just over half holding a favorable view of both Brown and Warren and about one-third holding an unfavorable view.

Looking at all registered voters, Brown’s standing has improved, but Warren’s standing has improved to a greater degree. Brown’s favorable-unfavorable numbers among all registered voters are now 52 percent favorable, 30 percent unfavorable – a net positive rating of 22 points compared to a net positive rating of 17 points in May.

For all registered voters, Warren’s numbers are 54 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable, for a net positive rating of 26 points, compared to a net positive rating of only 11 points in May among all registered voters.

Vercellotti said that Warren's gain in favorability while her unfavorability stayed relatively the same also contributed to her lead over Brown overall.

And although many of the voters surveyed say their minds are made up, 17 percent said they could change their candidate of choice between now and the Nov. 6 election.

"Twenty-one percent of independent voters who expressed a preference said they might change their minds, compared to 15 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans," Vercellotti said. "It’s clear that a sizable number of independent voters are still up for grabs in this race."

The next phase of the election involves four televised debates between Brown and Warren in which voters will have the opportunity to see how they handle themselves when directly challenged by each other, rather than through dueling narratives reported in the news.

"Even if voters don't see the debates on TV or in person, there will be a buzz and people will be talking about them," Vercellotti said. "That buzz can help form the opinions of undecided voters and the first debate is coming up in short order."

The TV debates include one hosted by WBZ-TV, the Boston CBS affiliate, on Sept. 20; another hosted by the University of Massachusetts-Lowell on Oct. 1; a debate in Springfield hosted by a Western Massachusetts media consortium on Oct. 10; and a Boston media consortium debate to be held on Oct. 30.



For continuing poll coverage, check with MassLive.com on Monday for a look at the traits defining the voter opinions of the candidates and on Tuesday for an analysis of the presidential race.

The new poll and press release from Western New England University can be downloaded here.

Western New England University Poll - Mass. Senate Tables (Sept 2012)