Photo: Dustin Godfrey

The B.C. Liberals are on a path to another majority government – or, the election is still too close to call.

That depends on which poll you're more inclined to believe.

An Ipsos Reid poll released Monday shows a race too close to call, with the Liberals at 39 per cent, the B.C. NDP at 40 per cent and a rising tide of Green support at 17 per cent.

That poll has the Liberals down four percentage points a week ago, while the NDP are down one point, versus a three-point bump for the Green Party.

Ipsos is calling the race "too close to call," saying it's all about who turns up on election day. With over two-fifths not turning up for the vote in the last few elections in the province, the pollsters say a low turnout would tend to benefit the Liberal party. If advance polls are any indication, that may be bad news for the Liberals.

Meanwhile, Mainstreet Research says it's "2013 all over again." That pollster has the NDP at 35 per cent and the Liberals at 34 – well within the poll's margin of error.

“Our final poll finds the NDP and Liberals in a dead heat – but despite the statistical tie in support, we’re expecting a Liberal majority government on Tuesday night," president Quito Maggi said. "For the NDP to win, they would need to be leading by substantially more given the inefficiency of their vote. With a statistical dead heat, we expect Liberal incumbents will be able to pull themselves over the finish line.”

According to Mainstreet, the Liberals have the strongest supporters, with only 18 per cent either "not sure" (eight per cent) or saying they "might change their mind" (10 per cent). NDP voters are eight points behind in voter conviction, with 18 per cent saying they could change their mind and eight per cent saying they are unsure.

Greens are by and far the least certain about their vote, with 34 per cent saying they "might change their mind" and 13 per cent "not sure."

Dustin Godfrey