With three games in the books, a consensus is starting to emerge and teams are settling in to their respective rankings. There is still a bit of movement, and a few surprises.

Three weeks in and we're one step closer to knowing everything there is to know about all 32 teams in the NFL. Or so we think, if the prominent storylines in the mainstream media are to be believed. The real 49ers have shown up, the 49ers in week 1 were just pretenders. The optimism for Miami has all but died. Oakland has won two games now? They're finally good again! Maybe we were wrong to bury the Eagles and call Chip Kelly a failure after just two games?

That's the beauty of the NFL, each week the narrative changes and keeps things interesting.

The big question this week seems to be: just how good are the Arizona Cardinals? Are they an elite team? Have they proven themselves?

Personally, I've always liked the Cardinals. When the Chargers were looking for a new head coach after they fired Norv Turner, I didn't like the idea of Bruce Arians. Boy was I wrong. Arians is playing football the right way: balls out. "We're up by 3 scores? So what!? Keep the foot on the gas and obliterate our opponent!" Playing like a coach who has nothing to lose, I can respect that.

Notable Quotes

2015 is shaping up to be just like 2014. Everyone is hurt, play calling is predictable, no O-line. The defense is holding out as best they can, but there is little to no offensive support, thus leading to a tired defense. In Chargers fashion, they are losing games they are supposed to win and will probably win games they are supposed to lose. That last bit seems doubtful this year. - Reddit

Not the way coach Mike McCoy -- or the Chargers' run defense, or the stinkin' offensive line -- drew it up, surely. Holy cow did San Diego's front five get blown off the ball on some key sequences. Bolts rookie Melvin Gordon is physical on certain runs, tentative on others. Meanwhile, coordinator John Pagano's defense was mostly solid, allowing only 284 yards of offense in the loss to the Vikings. Still think the Chargers will come through. They have the Browns and Vick-led Steelers, both at home, coming up. - NFL.com

They play three of next four at home and get TE Antonio Gates back in a week. They've got top 10 offense and defense despite 1-2 start. - USA Today

Division Averages

Division Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference AFC East 9.643 10.966 -1.323 AFC West 13.417 14.239 -0.822 NFC West 14.060 14.818 -0.758 AFC North 13.524 14.864 -1.340 NFC East 18.750 17.159 1.591 NFC North 18.750 18.261 0.489 NFC South 20.643 19.011 1.632 AFC South 23.214 22.682 0.532

Stock Rising

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference OAK 25.528 19.182 6.346 ATL 12.792 8.182 4.610 PHI 19.292 14.727 4.565 NYG 22.708 18.227 4.481 BUF 11.278 7.136 4.142

Stock Falling

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference MIA 16.319 22.455 -6.136 SF 20.056 25.727 -5.671 SDG 13.486 18.636 -5.150 NYJ 8.861 12.773 -3.912 KC 10.944 14.636 -3.692

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.182 0.151 Packers 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2.000 -0.333 Cardinals 2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 5 3.273 1.227 Broncos 4 3 5 4 4 3 5 3 4 4 3 3.818 -0.235 Bengals 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4.727 0.606 Falcons 6 7 8 10 6 6 7 6 9 6 6 7.000 2.917 Bills 10 6 11 8 8 7 6 10 6 8 10 8.182 2.485 Seahawks 7 8 10 7 7 9 8 8 14 7 8 8.455 1.212 Panthers 9 10 7 6 11 10 10 7 7 10 7 8.546 3.121 Steelers 8 13 6 12 13 11 9 9 8 9 9 9.727 -1.394 Cowboys 11 11 9 13 10 8 15 11 12 12 12 11.273 -2.773 Vikings 13 9 12 9 9 13 11 15 11 14 11 11.546 4.787 Jets 15 14 17 14 12 14 13 12 13 13 14 13.727 -3.560 Chiefs 12 18 18 19 15 12 12 18 10 11 13 14.364 -5.031 Colts 14 12 13 11 16 20 14 13 19 15 16 14.818 2.349 Raiders 20 17 14 15 18 18 16 16 15 20 15 16.727 8.773 Eagles 17 15 16 20 17 22 20 14 17 18 17 17.546 5.037 Chargers 18 20 19 17 14 19 18 19 16 16 18 17.636 -4.219 Giants 16 16 15 18 20 25 19 20 23 17 20 19.000 5.417 Rams 19 21 28 16 19 17 17 22 18 21 19 19.727 -1.644 Ravens 22 23 20 21 22 15 22 21 20 19 23 20.727 -3.977 Dolphins 23 22 25 22 24 16 27 17 25 22 24 22.455 -5.372 Texans 21 24 24 25 23 23 25 27 22 25 21 23.636 4.114 Titans 24 19 26 24 28 24 24 24 29 26 22 24.546 1.704 Redskins 27 26 29 26 21 29 21 25 21 24 25 24.909 -2.409 Lions 25 25 21 23 26 28 23 30 24 23 26 24.909 -1.242 49ers 28 27 22 28 27 27 29 23 28 28 28 26.818 -6.151 Browns 26 29 27 31 25 21 28 28 27 27 27 26.909 -1.909 Jaguars 29 30 23 29 31 26 26 26 31 29 30 28.182 -2.515 Buccaneers 30 28 30 27 29 30 30 29 30 30 29 29.273 -0.023 Saints 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 26 31 31 30.364 -0.864 Bears 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 -0.250

Observations:

Patriots moving one step closer to becoming the unanimous top team.

Packers moving down a bit this week, with the Cardinals stealing a couple second-place votes from them.

Unanimous consensus on which teams are top-5: Patriots, Packers, Cardinals, Broncos and Bengals. All 5 of those teams received votes in the 1-5 rankings; no other teams got top-5 votes.

Falcons knocking on the door though and kind of coming out of nowhere. The Falcons started the season with an average subjective ranking of 22.444, so they've risen quite nicely.

That Vikings front-7 has looked good the past two Sunday, as did Adrian Peterson; likely what has helped to propel the Vikings up in the rankings.

Chargers are falling, and rightfully so right now.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value Bears 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 -0.595 Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0.386 -0.085 Bengals 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 0.445 -0.661 Packers 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 0.603 0.132 Broncos 4 3 5 4 4 3 5 3 4 4 3 0.716 -0.322 Cardinals 2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 5 0.862 -0.894 Buccaneers 30 28 30 27 29 30 30 29 30 30 29 0.962 -0.048 Falcons 6 7 8 10 6 6 7 6 9 6 6 1.348 -0.150 Jets 15 14 17 14 12 14 13 12 13 13 14 1.355 -1.348 Saints 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 26 31 31 1.432 -1.637 Chargers 18 20 19 17 14 19 18 19 16 16 18 1.666 -0.587 Panthers 9 10 7 6 11 10 10 7 7 10 7 1.671 -1.825 Bills 10 6 11 8 8 7 6 10 6 8 10 1.749 -1.176 Texans 21 24 24 25 23 23 25 27 22 25 21 1.772 -0.909 Cowboys 11 11 9 13 10 8 15 11 12 12 12 1.814 -2.339 Raiders 20 17 14 15 18 18 16 16 15 20 15 1.958 -0.672 Vikings 13 9 12 9 9 13 11 15 11 14 11 1.971 -0.778 Seahawks 7 8 10 7 7 9 8 8 14 7 8 1.971 -0.747 49ers 28 27 22 28 27 27 29 23 28 28 28 2.124 -0.404 Steelers 8 13 6 12 13 11 9 9 8 9 9 2.136 -1.035 Ravens 22 23 20 21 22 15 22 21 20 19 23 2.178 -1.014 Eagles 17 15 16 20 17 22 20 14 17 18 17 2.231 -1.408 Browns 26 29 27 31 25 21 28 28 27 27 27 2.391 -0.664 Lions 25 25 21 23 26 28 23 30 24 23 26 2.429 -0.380 Jaguars 29 30 23 29 31 26 26 26 31 29 30 2.443 -1.005 Titans 24 19 26 24 28 24 24 24 29 26 22 2.606 0.118 Colts 14 12 13 11 16 20 14 13 19 15 16 2.657 -0.310 Redskins 27 26 29 26 21 29 21 25 21 24 25 2.811 -0.897 Giants 16 16 15 18 20 25 19 20 23 17 20 2.923 -0.225 Rams 19 21 28 16 19 17 17 22 18 21 19 3.165 0.017 Chiefs 12 18 18 19 15 12 12 18 10 11 13 3.170 0.610 Dolphins 23 22 25 22 24 16 27 17 25 22 24 3.173 -0.001

Observations:

Bears unanimously at the bottom of the heap. Kind of deserved when you punt the ball on all 10 of your possessions in a game.

Overall, standard deviation went down more this week than it went up. Consensus is starting to form overall.

Like I said, there is a unanimous consensus of the top-5 teams this week.

The Jets ranking dropped quite a bit this week, but their standard deviation dropped considerably as well; rankers are starting to agree on them.

Chargers are getting more settled.

Rams, Chiefs, and Dolphins: the three teams nobody can seem to figure out.

Objective Average

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 2 5 2 3 1 1 1 2 1.818 0.849 Cardinals 2 5 4 7 1 8 1 6 4 5 1 4.000 3.111 Packers 3 3 3 8 11 12 4 3 3 3 3 5.091 1.909 Broncos 5 2 2 10 3 13 10 2 2 2 6 5.182 -0.738 Bills 8 8 8 6 4 5 2 4 8 9 5 6.091 5.798 Bengals 4 6 6 5 8 10 5 5 5 7 10 6.455 -0.011 Steelers 7 7 7 9 6 9 7 7 9 6 8 7.455 -1.233 Falcons 9 19 10 1 10 1 11 8 10 11 13 9.364 6.303 Seahawks 6 4 5 28 13 15 13 9 6 4 4 9.727 2.940 Panthers 11 17 15 4 7 19 6 10 7 10 15 11.000 0.778 Cowboys 22 13 9 3 15 3 12 11 12 8 18 11.455 -0.677 Jets 10 14 13 12 2 7 9 13 15 21 14 11.818 -4.262 Eagles 14 10 11 11 17 4 17 14 14 12 7 11.909 4.091 Chiefs 17 9 12 15 24 23 16 12 11 13 12 14.909 -2.353 Vikings 13 15 18 19 16 26 8 15 13 16 23 16.546 3.232 Ravens 16 12 14 21 22 20 22 17 21 15 11 17.364 0.303 Giants 15 21 16 16 20 6 14 22 18 22 22 17.455 3.545 Colts 18 11 17 23 26 11 29 16 19 14 9 17.546 0.232 Chargers 19 16 19 24 19 29 21 18 16 18 17 19.636 -6.080 Texans 28 23 22 20 18 27 19 20 20 19 16 21.091 1.687 Raiders 20 28 24 13 14 22 18 21 23 26 29 21.636 3.920 Rams 12 20 23 26 21 17 24 25 25 24 24 21.909 -0.465 Dolphins 26 18 20 18 27 21 27 23 24 23 20 22.455 -6.899 Titans 21 25 29 29 9 16 15 30 29 30 19 22.909 -1.576 Redskins 25 29 27 25 12 14 20 28 26 29 26 23.727 -0.505 Lions 23 22 21 27 23 30 28 24 22 20 25 24.091 -3.424 49ers 30 26 26 17 31 28 32 19 17 17 28 24.636 -5.192 Browns 27 27 28 22 28 18 23 26 28 27 27 25.546 -3.546 Saints 24 24 25 32 25 24 25 27 30 25 21 25.636 1.697 Jaguars 29 32 31 14 30 25 31 29 31 32 32 28.727 -3.060 Bears 32 30 30 30 29 31 30 32 27 28 30 29.909 -0.242 Buccaneers 31 31 32 31 32 32 26 31 32 31 31 30.909 -0.131

Observations:

So how 'bout them Patriots?

A lot of times people like to question the sources I use for this post, mostly when they disagree with the rankings or they don't like that there are one or two sites that seem to disagree with the other sites. Last week people were questioning BeatGraphs and Pro Football Reference. As with all of these objective ratings, the more games that are played, the more information feeds into their formulas and a better picture is painted. It's still early in the season, so there will be some variance in a team's rating.

With that disclaimer out of the way, BeatGraphs being an outlier for the Seahawks kind of makes sense since Seattle is 1-2.

Pro Football Reference seems all over the board because Strength of Schedule is one of the key components to their Simple Rating System, and it takes a few more than 3 games to get an accurate SOS picture. It's not the only input, but it is one of them.





Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value Steelers 7 7 7 9 6 9 7 7 9 6 8 1.076 -1.704 Patriots 1 1 1 2 5 2 3 1 1 1 2 1.192 -2.175 Bears 32 30 30 30 29 31 30 32 27 28 30 1.443 -0.665 Buccaneers 31 31 32 31 32 32 26 31 32 31 31 1.621 0.073 Bengals 4 6 6 5 8 10 5 5 5 7 10 1.971 0.330 Bills 8 8 8 6 4 5 2 4 8 9 5 2.151 -2.051 Cardinals 2 5 4 7 1 8 1 6 4 5 1 2.374 -3.816 Saints 24 24 25 32 25 24 25 27 30 25 21 2.901 0.741 Lions 23 22 21 27 23 30 28 24 22 20 25 2.968 -1.195 Browns 27 27 28 22 28 18 23 26 28 27 27 3.056 -5.442 Dolphins 26 18 20 18 27 21 27 23 24 23 20 3.173 -1.277 Packers 3 3 3 8 11 12 4 3 3 3 3 3.343 -5.024 Texans 28 23 22 20 18 27 19 20 20 19 16 3.502 1.252 Chargers 19 16 19 24 19 29 21 18 16 18 17 3.675 2.104 Eagles 14 10 11 11 17 4 17 14 14 12 7 3.777 -0.278 Broncos 5 2 2 10 3 13 10 2 2 2 6 3.857 0.691 Ravens 16 12 14 21 22 20 22 17 21 15 11 3.868 -2.039 Rams 12 20 23 26 21 17 24 25 25 24 24 4.010 -1.284 Chiefs 17 9 12 15 24 23 16 12 11 13 12 4.602 -1.077 Giants 15 21 16 16 20 6 14 22 18 22 22 4.619 0.000 Jets 10 14 13 12 2 7 9 13 15 21 14 4.648 -0.185 Panthers 11 17 15 4 7 19 6 10 7 10 15 4.671 0.487 Vikings 13 15 18 19 16 26 8 15 13 16 23 4.698 0.760 Falcons 9 19 10 1 10 1 11 8 10 11 13 4.811 1.412 Raiders 20 28 24 13 14 22 18 21 23 26 29 4.959 0.534 Jaguars 29 32 31 14 30 25 31 29 31 32 32 5.047 -1.784 Cowboys 22 13 9 3 15 3 12 11 12 8 18 5.483 0.302 Redskins 25 29 27 25 12 14 20 28 26 29 26 5.594 -1.826 49ers 30 26 26 17 31 28 32 19 17 17 28 5.693 -0.178 Colts 18 11 17 23 26 11 29 16 19 14 9 6.096 -2.214 Seahawks 6 4 5 28 13 15 13 9 6 4 4 6.956 -3.275 Titans 21 25 29 29 9 16 15 30 29 30 19 6.999 -2.081

Observations:

So three most inconsistently-ranked teams saw their standard deviation drop by at least 2 this week, so that indicates that the objective rankings also are gaining some consensus, which is to be expected.

The Seahawks aren't nearly as inconsistently-ranked if you take out the one BeatGraphs outlier.

The Titans are, however, all over the board.

The greatest consensus is on the Steelers at a solid 7th place.

Packers almost a unanimous 3rd place, if not for 4 sites (though one of those sites has them 4th)

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Patriots 1.182 1.818 1.500 0.500 Packers 2.000 5.091 3.545 0.788 Cardinals 3.273 4.000 3.636 2.170 Broncos 3.818 5.182 4.500 -0.486 Bengals 4.727 6.455 5.591 0.298 Bills 8.182 6.091 7.136 4.142 Falcons 7.000 9.364 8.182 4.610 Steelers 9.727 7.455 8.591 -1.313 Seahawks 8.455 9.727 9.091 2.076 Panthers 8.546 11.000 9.773 1.949 Cowboys 11.273 11.455 11.364 -1.725 Jets 13.727 11.818 12.773 -3.912 Vikings 11.546 16.546 14.046 4.010 Chiefs 14.364 14.909 14.636 -3.692 Eagles 17.546 11.909 14.727 4.565 Colts 14.818 17.546 16.182 1.290 Giants 19.000 17.455 18.227 4.481 Chargers 17.636 19.636 18.636 -5.150 Ravens 20.727 17.364 19.045 -1.837 Raiders 16.727 21.636 19.182 6.346 Rams 19.727 21.909 20.818 -1.054 Texans 23.636 21.091 22.364 2.900 Dolphins 22.455 22.455 22.455 -6.136 Titans 24.546 22.909 23.727 0.065 Redskins 24.909 23.727 24.318 -1.457 Lions 24.909 24.091 24.500 -2.333 49ers 26.818 24.636 25.727 -5.671 Browns 26.909 25.546 26.227 -2.727 Saints 30.364 25.636 28.000 0.417 Jaguars 28.182 28.727 28.455 -2.788 Buccaneers 29.273 30.909 30.091 -0.077 Bears 32.000 29.909 30.955 -0.247

Observations:

Patriots solidified their spot at the top even more in the overall average. Though the Packers are gaining faster still.

Cardinals climbing fast overall. Bills and Falcons too.

Chargers in the bottom half of the league and I can't argue with that based on the three games I've seen.

Top-12 overall has an even 6-to-6 parity of NFC vs AFC. Our playoff teams have been set already?

Overall, teams are a bit more evenly distributed than they had been. No distinct clusters forming.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1.182 1.818 0.942 -1.386 Bears 32.000 29.909 1.461 -0.320 Buccaneers 29.273 30.909 1.564 0.087 Bengals 4.727 6.455 1.670 0.202 Cardinals 3.273 4.000 1.823 -2.633 Steelers 9.727 7.455 2.037 -1.149 Bills 8.182 6.091 2.222 -1.359 Lions 24.909 24.091 2.743 -1.017 Browns 26.909 25.546 2.827 -3.377 Packers 2.000 5.091 2.856 -3.234 Broncos 3.818 5.182 2.856 0.599 Chargers 17.636 19.636 3.023 1.032 Texans 23.636 21.091 3.053 -0.459 Dolphins 22.455 22.455 3.173 -0.676 Saints 30.364 25.636 3.289 0.368 Jets 13.727 11.818 3.554 -0.428 Ravens 20.727 17.364 3.561 -1.019 Panthers 8.546 11.000 3.716 -0.091 Falcons 7.000 9.364 3.725 -0.061 Rams 19.727 21.909 3.774 -0.747 Giants 19.000 17.455 3.942 -0.261 Chiefs 14.364 14.909 3.961 -0.523 Jaguars 28.182 28.727 3.974 -1.202 Cowboys 11.273 11.455 4.085 -0.672 Eagles 17.546 11.909 4.191 -0.832 Vikings 11.546 16.546 4.385 0.661 49ers 26.818 24.636 4.433 0.098 Redskins 24.909 23.727 4.466 -1.154 Raiders 16.727 21.636 4.499 0.985 Colts 14.818 17.546 4.896 -0.997 Seahawks 8.455 9.727 5.151 -2.010 Titans 24.546 22.909 5.344 -1.349

Observations:

Again, overall standard deviation is going down as we see more games.

Overall Standard Deviation still remains high.

Seahawks and Titans both have subjective and objective averages close to each other, yet have the highest standard deviations.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Vikings 11.546 16.546 5.000 1.555 Raiders 16.727 21.636 4.909 4.853 Packers 2.000 5.091 3.091 -2.242 Colts 14.818 17.546 2.727 2.116 Panthers 8.546 11.000 2.455 2.344 Falcons 7.000 9.364 2.364 -3.386 Rams 19.727 21.909 2.182 -1.179 Chargers 17.636 19.636 2.000 1.861 Bengals 4.727 6.455 1.727 0.616 Buccaneers 29.273 30.909 1.636 0.108 Broncos 3.818 5.182 1.364 0.503 Seahawks 8.455 9.727 1.273 -1.727 Cardinals 3.273 4.000 0.727 -1.884 Patriots 1.182 1.818 0.636 -0.697 Chiefs 14.364 14.909 0.546 -2.676 Jaguars 28.182 28.727 0.546 0.546 Cowboys 11.273 11.455 0.182 -2.096 Dolphins 22.455 22.455 0.000 1.528 Lions 24.909 24.091 -0.818 2.182 Redskins 24.909 23.727 -1.182 -1.904 Browns 26.909 25.546 -1.364 1.636 Giants 19.000 17.455 -1.546 1.871 Titans 24.546 22.909 -1.636 3.281 Jets 13.727 11.818 -1.909 0.702 Bills 8.182 6.091 -2.091 -3.313 Bears 32.000 29.909 -2.091 -0.008 49ers 26.818 24.636 -2.182 -0.960 Steelers 9.727 7.455 -2.273 -0.162 Texans 23.636 21.091 -2.546 2.426 Ravens 20.727 17.364 -3.364 -4.281 Saints 30.364 25.636 -4.727 -2.560 Eagles 17.546 11.909 -5.636 0.947

Observations:

Have the Vikings been beating up on lesser opponents and not really tested? Or are the pundits seeing something that the models aren't?

Raiders are subjectively higher than their objective ranking? What's next? Human sacrifice? Dogs and cats living together? Mass hysteria!?

The Packers objective ranking is starting to come more in line with their subjective ranking.

Pundits really want to believe in the Colts. Any sign of life and they start outpacing their objective ranking.

I said it last week, I'll say it again this week: don't sleep on the Eagles.

The Saints have been bad, but not as bad you think. Same story with the Bears.

Sources