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Show Caption Hide Caption Climate Change Expert Makes Bold Prediction Dr. Harold Wanless, nicknamed Dr. Doom, believes the government has underestimated sea level rise.

If you live by the water, here's a prediction you may not want to hear: a sea level expert is warning that much more of the Jersey Shore's barrier islands will be under water in 50 years.

Harold Wanless, a Ph.D. and expert on sea level rise, is called "Dr. Doom" by some in the media for his dire warnings of impending ecological disaster.

Wanless doesn't care for that moniker, but hearing him talk about the effects of climate change on the Shore, which he did during a recent conference in Toms River, brings an understanding of how that nickname came to be.

Using the U.S. government's official projections, Wanless notes that "most of the barrier islands of the world will become largely inhabitable" within 50 years.

Not only would places like Long Beach Island and Seaside Heights be partially covered by sea water, but so would flood-prone coastal communities from Bay Head to Tuckerton. These areas would also face more flooding and greater risk from storm surges, according to his research.

But here's where Wanless, who prefers to go by Hal, steers into "Dr. Doom" territory: He believes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is underestimating the onset of "a rapid pulse of sea level rise" — perhaps as much as 30 feet by the end of century, or 4.5 times the official projection.

"I think by the middle of the century people are going to become afraid of the Shore, right now it's where we all want to live," he said during a talk at the Toms River Municipal Building as part of a conference by the Institute on Science for Global Policy.

While Gov. Chris Christie, a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, says that he believes human activity contributes to climate change, he described it as "not a crisis” and implies that if he were elected president he would not spend his time and energy fighting it.

"I wish (Obama) would focus on America first and the issues that are of most concern to the American people right now," Christie said during a campaign stop in New Hampshire in December. "And believe me, in a list of those climate change would not make the top 10, I suspect."

That sounds close to the opinion of Brick Wenzel, a property and business owner from Lavallette, who is worried that basing policy on Wanless's "alarmist ideology" will only result in bad laws and regulations.

To be clear, Wenzel, a commercial fisherman and owner of a restaurant and ice cream parlor on the half-mile wide island, says he believes climate change is real. Yet he believes that scientists like Wanless are blowing the effects of it out of proportion in order to attract attention.

"He is taking facts and using them to benefit himself," he said.

Wanless admits that his forecast deviates from the center of academic discussion on rising sea levels, but he's not the only one who thinks the official projections are too low.

"All I've recommended people do is to use the U.S. projections and incorporate accelerating ice melt, because that's what's happening," he said. "If we're blindsided by this ... then we're going to see a mass migration away from the shore and low-lying areas and if we haven't planned for that we're going to (create) a challenge for society, and if you want to call that alarmist, go ahead."

Here are the three main takeaways from Wanless's presentation:

1. It's too late to stop

"(Sea level rise) is not something that is going to be stoppable at 2 feet or 3 feet or 5 feet. There are some people who go around saying 'Well if we start behaving it's going to get better.' It's not — we warmed the ocean. ... This is going to keep happening through this century and well beyond."

Warm ocean water in the North Atlantic and Arctic has been thawing polar ice around Greenland since about 1995, according to Wanless

His projection, Wanless says, more accurately reflects the speed of the polar ice melt because he is including:

The effect of water on the surface of the ice, which absorbs more heat and in turn accelerates melting on top of the ice sheet

Dust and carbon that was once contained within the ice sheet is now exposed, darkening the surface and allowing it to capture more heat

The melted water on the surface trickles down through cracks in the ice, promoting more extensive fracturing and breaking the ice into smaller, quicker-to-melt hunks.

"Even if we stopped burning fossil fuels tomorrow, the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will keep warming the atmosphere for at least another 30 years," he writes in a policy paper.

Obama: Paris Agreement a 'turning point for the world' President Obama spoke about the historic Paris Agreement, calling it a "turning point for the world." The agreement is the first-ever global climate deal aimed at lowering carbon emissions.

The ocean has become so much warmer that the effect is "irreversible" and likely to continue "through this century and the next."

So, when you hear of climate change advocates urging adoption of clean energy, the reason, according to Wanless, is to prevent further sea level rise for future generations.

2. Stop spending money on sand and sea walls

"It's really throwing money in the ocean when we do beach renourishment with accelerated sea level rising."

Earlier this year, federal taxdollars paid to transport nearly 10 million cubic yards of sand onto beaches in separate projects in Monmouth and Ocean counties. The combined bill was about $168 million. That's money Wanless says could be better spent preparing for the inevitable.

"At what point when you realize that the sea level is going to be rising at an accelerated rate do you say maybe we should put aside money to help people relocate," Wanless said. "People are going to lose everything at some point."

Sea walls, levees, beach replenishment — all these are just Band-Aids that divert money and effort away from more worthy uses, like preparing for a mass migration of residents and cleaning the low-lying land so that it is not toxic to marine life, he said.

3. Set — and stick to — rules on new development and rebuilding

"We have to strengthen our regulations for rebuilding after storms."

There's a seemingly never-ending debate surrounding flood insurance on the Jersey Shore and other areas subject to tidal flooding and storm surges.

The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act was enacted in 2012 to push premiums up by as much as 25 percent or more in order to more accurately reflect risk.

"Then the bills came in and everybody got on the phone with their senators and congressmen and, guess what, they reversed it," Wanless said, referring to the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 which considerably softened Biggert-Waters.

Wanless says politicians need to be more resolute in holding firm to what the science and math says, whether that is on flood insurance premiums, hazard zone designations, or not encouraging development in areas that are essentially already lost.

"There are areas (where development is occurring) that will be unlivable and properties that will be unsellable within a 30-year mortgage cycle all along the Atlantic coast," he wrote.

Russ Zimmer: razimmer@app.com