The days of smoke-filled rooms populated by horse-trading pols picking a party's presidential nominee lie generations in the past, but an analogue (absent smoke, of course) is likely to occur when Democrats convene in Milwaukee a little more than six months from now

These so-called "brokered" or "open" or "contested" conventions materialize when no candidate has the majority of the votes of the delegates voting on the first ballot. The stage for that situation will begin to be set at the Iowa caucuses very soon, as was discussed on these pages a month ago and more recently.

Liz Peek has written about such a situation here:

Given that there are...more than a dozen candidates running, and that several are well financed, it seems possible that no one candidate will secure the nomination on the first round ... a process most voters don't know much about; the last such convention took place in 1924, when it took Democrats 16 days and 103 ballots to nominate John W. Davis[.] ... And not since 1952 has voting gone more than one round.

Ms. Peek's piece discusses how Michael Rubens Bloomberg, the billionaire businessman and former three-time mayor of New York City, will "force the party to a brokered convention, and then call in some favors. Lots of favors."



Michael Bloomberg (photo credit: Gage Skidmore).

Before getting more specific on how that would play out, let's review how delegates are selected and how they vote.

There will be 3,979 soft pledged delegates voting on the first ballot at the convention, having been chosen on a proportional basis in the caucuses and primaries. Put simply, each candidate winning at least 15% of the votes in any caucus or primary will be awarded soft delegates in proportion to the number of votes the candidate won.

Soft pledged delegates are neither legally nor by rule strictly required to vote for the candidate for which they stood, but it is unlikely that more than small handful of rogue delegates would defy the voters' choices.

An example of this proportional allocation would be this: State Z has 100 delegates, and candidate X wins 20% of the votes, thereby garnering 20 soft pledged delegates, and so on.

Hence, unless one candidate arrives at the convention with at least 1,990 (50% plus 1) soft pledged delegates, then balloting will continue until one candidate wins 50% plus 1 of all delegates voting, including the 771 superdelegates who are not permitted to vote on the first ballot — that new majority would be 2,376 delegates.

Ms. Peek writes that Mr. Bloomberg has plans to buy the nomination by, first, buying many of the superdelegates, a task he has already accomplished:

[He] ... spent $65 million ... during the 2016 election cycle, and another $100 million or so in 2018 helping to flip the House blue. That means there are a lot of candidates, party officials and activists who owe Bloomberg. Those folks will show up at the convention in Milwaukee next year as super delegates, perhaps ready to make him the candidate. That's why he kicked off his campaign in Virginia, a state that went to Democrats in 2018, in part thanks to Bloomberg. He wanted to showcase his clout in the party. Since 2011 [he] ... has thrown $6 million into Virginia, producing wins for several Democrats who consequently took over the state legislature for the first time in two decades. Much of that money flowed through a gun control advocacy group, Everytown For Gun Safety, funded by Bloomberg. That organization provided campaign cash to 22 House and Senate races in the state, producing 15 wins. A great many of those candidates will become super delegates, who could provide pivotal votes for Bloomberg at the Democratic convention should no one win a majority on the first round of balloting. They will look kindly on Bloomberg's quest, especially if he hints he'll be around come reelection time. This isn't illegal or corrupt; this is politics.

The most important thing to keep in mind as the caucuses and primaries unfold is that Mr. Bloomberg would not have entered the race absent the intention to win the nomination, and so, in addition to spending millions in support of the party, candidates, and various advocacy groups, he will spend, literally, untold millions in advertising.

A month ago, David Drucker spoke here with John Batchelor about how the airwaves were already, then, saturated with ads. The Boston Globe reports that his 2019 total ad spending was $155 million, and Bloomberg spent a lot nationally last weekend on health care ads in the NFL Wildcard games, and that spending will surely contuse in upcoming playoffs and the Super Bowl, where he has purchased a $10-million ad.

It has been clear for some time that, having gotten into the race, he will spend whatever portion of his $52 billion net worth it takes to win the whole shebang!

Bloomberg's billions have already had a marked effect on the ad business:

[He] is spending so much money on television spots across the country that it's causing ad rates to soar.... "The typical [TV] market increased their rates by 22 percent as the political spending poured in," an Advertising Analytics analysis found.

So, I think we must assume that a brokered convention is likely. The question now becomes "What happens then"?

I think Bloomberg's ad buying heretofore has been on influencing the minds of delegates, soft pledged delegates and superdelegates. Bloomberg will now be spending heavily on the electorate in Super Tuesday and ensuing races hoping to gain at least 15% of votes in as many races as he can in order to be in a position to sway as many delegates as possible to switch to him in the extended voting that will follow the first ballot.

I think he's a cinch to win over all but one person.

Some still think former Vice President Joe Biden will win the nomination. I think those people are delusional. If the men in white coats have not already carted him off, party pros, no mater what you and I think of them, will certainly have determined by then that Ol' Joe, himself, is too delusional and flaky to win the General. They're not alone:

Supporters...are unlikely to be persuaded by most of the common criticisms. They know he can be rambling and unintelligible....his record is unimpressive and...he...[has no] "policy proposals"....[But] he has the most important quality of all: he can beat Donald Trump.... the best hope Democrats have of getting Trump out of office. There's just one problem: it's a myth.... [A]s it was a myth that Hillary Clinton was a good candidate against Trump.... He would... be crushed by Trump.

Pros know Elizabeth Warren is disliked by Wall Street, is a serial fabulist, and is too far to the left to appeal to independents and moderates. Her soft pledged delegates may be among the first to flee to Bloomberg, and I can foresee that only a very few superdelegates will enter her camp.

Amy Klobuchar may arrive at the convention with some delegates, but I cannot see her gaining many after the first ballot.

Ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg's homosexuality will eventually preclude his being able to gather many delegates at the convention, particularly because blacks are, frankly, opposed to his gay agenda. I know from experience in the Caribbean that West Indians do not like "Anti-men." Ditto Hispanics where maricon and malecón are harsh pejoratives.

As for Bernie Sanders's chances in a brokered convention, the best I can say is that he'll be the last man, repeat, man standing against Bloomberg. He has a huge following, and the "progressive" and radical left will fight fiercely, but common sense and Bloomberg's money will prevail against him in the end in my opinion.

However, don't forget that, so far as I can tell, no rule prevents delegates from choosing someone who may not be a contender, as has happened in the past, if and when balloting is extended.

The doyenne of Chappaqua, who can neither sell books nor draw crowds, still has a cadre of hopers!

Hang on to your seats, folks, the gun's about to go off. My bet's on Bloomie and HRC going to the wire.

The author is retired, his profile may be found on LinkedIn, and he usually responds to emails sent to ringchadburn@hotmail.com.