Alistair Bunkall, Defence Correspondent

After years of threatening, Kurdistan finally went ahead with the independence vote yesterday uniting the region in opposition.

"It's been a rollercoaster ride," a government official texted, deploying some British-like understatement.

Iran kept its border open but shut its airspace to Kurdish bound flights; Turkey threatened to suspend oil exports; Baghdad demanded Iraqi troops be sent to disputed areas around Kirkuk. Britain and the United States kept quiet, having tried and failed to find a deal that would postpone the plebiscite.

The exact numbers won't be known until later in the week, but the result is hardly in doubt. Support for independence could exceed 70% and President Masoud Barzani will have his mandate for secession.


Don't expect immediate change, however.

Not only is the referendum non-binding, but even the most ardent supporters of an independent republic accept the process might take years.

Any new Republic of Kurdistan will need powerful, and wealthy friends if it is going to succeed. Hands in Baghdad and Erbil will also need to be held as negotiations get underway.

What happens next, though, is crucial to the security of the region and it is unlikely to pan out in the way we might expect.

First, let's consider Kurdistan's neighbours Iran and Turkey.

Barzani and his team are canny operators. They've chosen their moment and delivered on their promise. For all the protestations from Tehran and Ankara, it's unthinkable that there wasn't considerable pre-vote dialogue behind the scenes. Turkey and Iran could have made life very difficult indeed, had they chosen to. But they didn't.

The link between Ankara and Erbil is strategic but not warm. Political circles around Erdogan and Barzani have built a relationship of convenience. Some estimates say 1,400 Turkish companies are operating in the Kurdish capital and trade between the two is estimated at $2bn.

Image: A member of a Kurdish Peshmerga battalion shows his ink-stained finger after casting his vote

One close observer of events in Kurdistan suggested to me that Turkey would be the first country to come out in support of the referendum result. It's a bold if not unthinkable prediction. But if that is to happen, Ankara will want considerable concessions from Erbil, including an enhanced involvement in the lucrative gas and energy sectors.

Iran will be more cautious. Tehran, like Turkey, will be keen that ideas of autonomy don't catch on amongst the Kurds within their own borders and that will remain the primary reason for opposing continued progression towards independence.

It would be foolish for Iran to react militarily, knowing that wouldn't be acceptable by the international community, but it could disrupt and create dissent by using more subtle levers.

So what about Western powers?

Having tried to stop it, London and Washington must now accept the result.

Image: Iraqi Kurds were celebrating after the referendum but what comes next?

Furthermore, they would be wise to position themselves as Erbil's closest sponsors and protectors. The alternative is to watch it move closer to Turkey and, worse still, Russia. And if the West hesitates, Moscow could take the opportunity to build a partnership with an embryonic oil-rich state and expand its influence in the Middle East.

Any new Republic of Kurdistan will need powerful and wealthy friends if it is going to succeed. Hands in Baghdad and Erbil will also need to be held as negotiations get under way. I sense the door is open for Britain to lead that group, but London must overcome its natural urge to tip-toe around Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran.

If not, the Kurd's will look elsewhere, and why not?

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every morning.

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