I have no way of knowing if this will work, other than to try it out. With only nine teams and two to three games played so far, it is hard to say who has played a tough slate vs. an easy one. Fearless as I am, I conjured a very conservative SOS estimator and plugged it into the ol' formula:



Montreal won 43.66% of the simulations, losing by an average score of 26-29.



If I get something resembling a decent result, I may run the rest of the games for this week. I had no idea how small the CFL was - average attendance has been a tad less than 25,000 per game with a high of 31,907 and a low of 4,900.



Nevertheless, having a Herd superstar there makes it all the more interesting.