Last week, the staff were all of one mind. And that one mind whiffed on picking NOLA Gold, who beat the Seattle Seawolves. With that, the entire group is a somewhat underwhelming 5-5 on the season. With four fixtures and more diversity among our picks this week, that is about to get shaken up.

Should we be embarrassed that we’ve yet to have anyone pick a perfect week? I prefer to chalk it up to the fundamental parity of Major League Rugby. But also slightly embarrassed. Let’s see if someone nails it in Round 4.

Rugby United New York @ NOLA Gold

It’s as if the rugby gods designed NOLA’s schedule so that I would always pick against them; just slowly upping the ante every week with their opponent. Me picking against them every week. Being wrong every week. And now, my hometown Roosters will be headed south to take their shot at melting down the Gold.

RUNY has been idle since Round 1, when they managed to clip a win in San Diego. Since then, they’ve had two bye weeks to watch NOLA, to rest, and to prepare. But preparation could not have been easy in the New York polar vortex, and there is no preparation like in-game action.

NOLA, conversely, has yet to have a bye. And who wants a bye when they’re the hottest team in the league? They’ve made an art of getting the ball wide and exploiting overlaps. So far, no one has found a way to defend it. RUNY has had a few extra weeks to prepare, but that doesn’t mean they’ve cracked the code. To win, they’ll have to shut those wide channels down. I’ve already been wrong too many times this year thinking that someone would find the answer. At this point, NOLA has earned some trust in their system.

NOLA by 4

Utah Warriors @ San Diego Legion

While I think any team can beat any other on any given weekend in this league, last week’s match between the Houston SaberCats and San Diego struck me as the easiest pick of the young season. And for 75 minutes or so, they made me feel like an idiot.

Now I look at Utah heading out west and I am similarly inclined. I think San Diego is a top tier team and hosting a side far lower in our power rankings should be smooth sailing. But last week’s match gives me pause.

Utah Warriors have one game, which they won easily with a dominant set-piece. They apparently beat the 2020 expansion team New England Free Jacks by a considerable margin. I have already compared them to this year’s Seattle Seawolves, emerging from a quiet preseason to win with hard-nosed power rugby. Maybe I’m underestimating them.

Maybe I am. But I’ve seen three San Diego matches this year and they’ve done enough against good teams to convince me that they’re the real deal. Utah still has some road to cover on that front.

San Diego by 6

Glendale Raptors @ Austin Elite Rugby

Austin needs to be in desperation mode at this point. With an 0-4 home start, it would be hard to imagine them in the playoffs. We talked about the changing faces of the Elite in our preseason preview of the team, and we identified the need for a leader to bring the group together. No such leader is emerging. Timothee Guillimin is struggling, particularly with the boot. At this point, it’s only the utter need for a win that would compel me to pick Austin against a team with a proven track record.

Unfortunately for Austin, Glendale at 0-2, is also going to be feeling desperate. They’ve already lost more in the first two weeks than they did in all of last year’s regular season. Coming off a bye, they will no doubt have all systems go for this must-have win. Even if their Americas Rugby Championship call-ups remain on Eagle duty, I think Glendale take it.

Glendale by 10

Toronto Arrows @ Seattle Seawolves

Both of these teams have some things working in their favor. Toronto is expecting most of their ARC call-ups back and Seattle will be heading back to their friendly confines.

Given that we’ve only seen the Arrows full side play once, there is so little to go one. They went to NOLA and lost by four, whereas Seattle lost by 10. But the Seawolves have three games under the belt together, whereas the Arrows essentially have one as a complete side. And the Seawolves are always deadly at home.

This one really comes down to gut feel. And I feel like two straight tough losses may leave Seattle in a bad way. Whereas the Arrows are just getting their feet under them, I fear Seattle may feel like they’ve had the rug pulled out from under them. I’m going against my colleagues this week and taking Toronto.

Toronto by 3

TRS Staff Picks

You can find TRS contributor Paul Bains’ picks here.

Season Summary