There are some Middle East politicians that have always reminded me of animals. Assad senior was always the ruthless Lion of Damascus. Even the Egyptians called Hosni Mubarak “La Vache Qui Rit” from the famous French cheese of the grinning cow.

But it took a while before Haider al-Abadi could secure a place in my Aesop’s fables. Iraq’s previous prime minister – and quite possibly its next – came bounding from his chair, tubby, cheerful and pretty over-confident, I thought. And then I got it: he’s the family cat who has just opened the canary’s cage and eaten it – and he doesn’t care the slightest what anyone thinks about that.

The canary is Isis or Barack Obama, or Donald Trump or Mohammed bin Salman – or any Iraqi politician. It’s oil and the economy and, I fear, it’s also Mosul.

An imperial pussycat, perhaps, but Abadi has sharp claws and evidently thinks he will return to power when his successor, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, fails. Not a cruel cat, perhaps, but a pitiless one.

So here he is, presciently talking to me shortly before Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi reappeared on his grim videotape to threaten the world. “Daesh finished? As a state yes, they cannot go back to that. But not as a terrorist organisation... I have to give you a warning. They are badly wounded – and they realise their dream has gone. So they will do whatever it takes to restore it. I think they are looking for some spectacular operations here or there. They are planning very hard…. The other thing is that we have not accounted for all of their leadership. We don’t know where some of their leaders are. That’s another danger. My worry as an Iraqi is that many of these leaders are Iraqis. So we have to be very, very vigilant.”

Ouch. Well, Abadi sure got that one right.

In pictures: Mosul offensive Show all 40 1 /40 In pictures: Mosul offensive In pictures: Mosul offensive A doctor carries an Iraqi newborn baby at a hospital in Mosul, Iraq July 18, 2017. Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi girls play at a yard of a school in Mosul, Iraq July 18, 2017alal Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive A woman on crutches who is a relative of men accused of being Islamic State militants is seen at a camp in Bartella, east of Mosul, Iraq July 15, 2017. Picture taken July 15, 2017. Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive A displaced girl, who fled from home carries a doll at Hamam al-Alil camp south of Mosul, Iraq July 13, 2017. Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi federal police members and civilians celebrate in the Old City of Mosul on 9 July 2017 after the government's announcement of the "liberation" of the embattled city. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's office said he was in "liberated" Mosul to congratulate "the heroic fighters and the Iraqi people on the achievement of the major victory" AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive A picture taken on 9 July 2017, shows a general view of the destruction in Mosul's Old City. Iraq will announce imminently a final victory in the nearly nine-month offensive to retake Mosul from jihadists, a US general said Saturday, as celebrations broke out among police forces in the city. AFP In pictures: Mosul offensive Members of the Iraqi federal police raise the victory gesture as they ride on a humvee while advancing through the Old City of Mosul on 28 June 2017, as the offensive continues to retake the last district held by Islamic State (IS) group fighters. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive Smoke billows as Iraqi forces advance through the Old City of Mosul on 26 June 2017, during the ongoing offensive to retake the last district held by the Islamic State (IS) group. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive An Iraqi man wearing the green scarf of the Shi'ite faith kisses an Iraqi Army soldier on safely reaching the Iraqi forces position as Iraqi civilians flee the Old City of west Mosul where heavy fighting continues on 23 June 2017. Iraqi forces continue to encounter stiff resistance with improvised explosive devices, car bombs, heavy mortar fire and snipers hampering their advance. Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive A picture taken from the inside of an Iraqi forces armoured vehicle shows residents walking through a damaged street as troops advance towards Mosul's Old City on 18 June 2017, during the ongoing offensive to retake the last district still held by the Islamic State (IS) group. Military commanders told AFP the assault had begun at dawn after overnight air strikes by the US-led coalition backing Iraqi forces. They said the jihadists were putting up fierce resistance. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi Army soldiers advance in a destroyed street after an Iraqi forces airstrike targeted an Islamic State sniper position 17 June 2017 in al-Shifa, the last district of west Mosul under Islamic State control. IS snipers, as well as car and suicide bomb attacks continue to hinder the Iraqi forces efforts to retake the final district. A series of airstrikes by Iraqi helicopter gunships attempted to hit multiple Islamic State sniper positions in al-Shifa. Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive An Iraqi soldier frisks a displaced Iraqi man at a temporary camp in the compound of the closed Nineveh International Hotel in Mosul on 16 June 2017 which was recovered by Iraqi troops from Islamic State group fighters earlier in the year. A screening centre set up in the compound's fairgrounds sees a constant stream of Iraqis fleeing the battle for Mosul, awaiting their turn to be checked by the Iraqi forces who are searching for suspected Islamic State (IS) group members. The small fairground lies at the end of a pontoon bridge across the Tigris recently opened to civilians that is the only physical link between the two banks of the river. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqis staying at the al-Khazir camp swim in a river near the camp for internally displaced people, located between Arbil and Mosul on 11 June 2017. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi government forces drive on a road leading to Tal Afar on 9 June 2017, during ongoing battles to retake the city from Islamic State (IS) group fighters. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive An Iraqi policeman carries a poster bearing an image of Mosul's iconic leaning minaret, known as the "Hadba" (Hunchback), on 22 June 2017. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqis stand in line to receive food aid in western Mosul's Zanjili neighbourhood on 7 June 2017, during ongoing battles as Iraqi forces try to retake the city from Islamic State (IS) group fighters. Living conditions in Mosul have again deteriorated since the start of the Iraqi government's offensive on the city in October in which they retook a large part of the west of the city. AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive Displaced Iraqis carry lightbulbs and sacks as they evacuate from western Mosul's Zanjili neighbourhood as government forces advance in the area during their ongoing battle against Islamic State (IS) group fighters on 13 May 2017 AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive A member of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) flashes the victory gesture as he patrols in western Mosul's al-Islah al-Zaraye neighbourhood on 13 May 2017 AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi army soldiers from the 9th armoured division on a truck flash the sign of victory as they drive back from Mosul to the town of Qaraqosh (also known as Hamdaniya) Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive Members of Iraqi forces flash the sign of victory on their vehicle as they advance towards Hammam al-Alil area south of Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive A member of Iraqi security forces gestures in Hammam al-Alil, south of Mosul, Iraq Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi children, one flashing the sign of victory, greet Iraqi army's soldiers from the 9th armoured division in the area of Ali Rash, adjacent to the eastern Al-Intissar neighbourhood of Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive Peshmerga forces look at a tunnel used by Islamic State militants near the town of Bashiqa, east of Mosul, during an operation to attack Islamic State militants in Mosul, Iraq Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive An Iraqi soldier takes a photograph with his phone as his comrade stands next to a detained man, whom the Iraqi army soldiers accused of being an Islamic State fighter, who was fleeing with his family in the Intisar disrict of eastern Mosul, Iraq Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive Iranian Kurdish female members of the Freedom Party of Kurdistan (PAK) hold a position in an area near the town of Bashiqa, some 25 kilometres north east of Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi families, who fled their homes in Hamam al-Alil, gather on the outskirts of their town Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive Displaced people walk past a checkpoint near Qayara, south of Mosul, Iraq AP In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi families who were displaced by the ongoing operation by Iraqi forces against jihadists of the Islamic State group to retake the city of Mosul, are seen gathering in an area near Qayyarah In pictures: Mosul offensive A boy who just fled Abu Jarbuah village is seen with his family at a Kurdish Peshmerga position between two front lines near Bashiqa, east of Mosul, Iraq Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive An Iraqi child eats a pomegranate upon the arrival of Iraqi forces in the village of Umm Mahahir, south of Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive People who just fled Abu Jarbuah village sit as they eat at a Kurdish Peshmerga position between two front lines near Bashiqa, east of Mosul, Iraq Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive A couple who just fled Abu Jarbuah village are escorted by Kurdish Peshmerga soldiers Reuters In pictures: Mosul offensive Women carry a boy over a wall as civilians flee their houses in the village of Tob Zawa, Iraq AP In pictures: Mosul offensive An Iraqi soldier and a civilian ride a motorbike as smoke rises behind them, on the road between Qayyarah and Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive A member of Iraqi forces, wearing a skull mask, waits at a checkpoint for people fleeing the main hub city of Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive An Iraqi soldier sits at a checkpoint in an area near Qayyarah Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi men prepare food portions for Iraqi forces deployed in areas south of Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi forces celebrate upon the arrival of vehicles bringing food to them Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive Iraqi childen smoke cigarettes upon the arrival of Iraqi forces in the village of Umm Mahahir, south of Mosul Getty In pictures: Mosul offensive A member of Iraqi forces distributes drinks to children in the village of Umm Mahahir, south of Mosul Getty

He was Iraqi prime minister for just over four years, from 2014 to 2018, which straddled the Obama-Trump transition. Realising, of course, that he won’t have to deal with Obama again but may very well have to go on talking to Trump, Obama gets a lot of stick but Trump not much at all. And the whole story, predictably, still embraces Isis.

“Generally the US administration had this direction to fight Isis, that ‘Iraq must be held together’. But how much would they support us? If you remember, back in 2015, I received a lot of promises, including from President Obama that he would ‘stand with us in fighting Isis’. I made this public. I said that fighting on the ground was painful but this US support had not materialised. I said that it is very slow while we are facing this terrorist organisation. I said this is endangering the war. Mr Obama wasn’t happy about that. [He said] it was used by Republicans against him in Congress. But I told him: ‘I’m sorry. I had to do this. I know how it works in the US and the rest of Europe – and I know that in order to force you to give more support to our efforts on the ground that I had to go public. I’m sorry I’ve embarrassed you but we are sacrificing our citizens there [in Iraq]. We need all the support possible’.”

Abadi even has a Manchester accent, courtesy of his Manchester University PhD in electrical engineering; sometimes you can hear the previously exiled Iraqi in Britain, talking business rather than politics. But there is an intriguing story about the US military and Trump, which will no doubt be repeated in Abadi’s proposed memoirs. “I think I can claim that I used [the Trump] transition to the benefit of Iraq. You see the [US] military wanted to support us – so I immediately used this fact. I remember some US generals were telling me: ‘Sir, we have commanders who don’t even meet the new president’. I was communicating with Mr Trump more than they [US commanders] communicated with him.”

This sounds all too true. Abadi continues his story. “So I used this – but not in a bad way. Sometimes I would say: ‘If you [the generals] want me to talk to the top man, I will,’ and they said: ‘No, no, no – we’ll do it’…. [Trump] surprised me. I have to tell you, he’s a very good listener, as far as I can tell from my angle. He listens and he changes his mind. You remember when he put seven Muslim countries on the [US] no-entry list? Well, everybody in the US administration told me that Trump will not change his mind. They said they knew it was bad to put Iraq on the list, but that he’s not a guy to change his mind. So I talked to him directly and I explained to him [about Iraq’s position], and he said: ‘I’m sorry. I didn’t know this – I’ll look into it. I’ll remove Iraq [from the list].’ And he did.”

When Trump announced he would withdraw troops from Syria in 2018, Abadi says he was forced to call him at once. “I said: ‘Well, this is up to you, but I warn you that Isis is still on the eastern side of Syria, over very large areas, and they are very dangerous. We should stay focused on this until we finish them off.’

“What he had been saying was logical to him: ‘What’s in it for us?’ He was saying: ‘It is costing me so much in Syria – 2,000 personnel in Syria. This is not my problem, it is a problem of Russia together with Iran – let them solve it.’”

When Trump rashly talked of America’s “base in Iraq” from which the US could “look into Iran”, he was “misinformed”, according to Abadi. “It is against the Iraqi constitution to use Iraqi territory against a neighbouring country.”

Abadi has met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman many times and talked through the original and deeply flawed western view: that he was a pragmatist, and had let women drive against the wishes of the establishment.

Then, quite remarkably, Abadi says the following: “But on the other issues like human rights, his foreign policy, the policy on Yemen, the treatment of [kidnapped Lebanese prime minister] Saad Hariri, at the end Khashoggi, I think these are very dangerous trends. Very dangerous. I don’t intervene in the affairs of other countries but that guy [Mohammed bin Salman] had a very bright future ahead of him. I say ‘had’. Now I’m not sure. You see, to become a leader, you need all the support of the west and the US. You agree? Especially with Saudi Arabia. Will that support be forthcoming now, do you think, without checks and balances? This operation in Istanbul, in the consulate, it’s very alarming. I mean this guy [Jamal Khashoggi] was not in the opposition. He was very conciliatory. I think this is a huge misjudgement. If it wasn’t Trump [as US president], we would see things differently.”

Abadi remembers arguing with Obama about the Saudi war in Yemen. Why was he supporting this war, he asked. “‘Well,’ Obama said, ‘I’m not supporting the war, but I went there to control the Saudis, [so that they should] not be excessive.’ [But] they have been very excessive. Look at the damage in Yemen. It’s huge... As a leader of the region, I see it as responsible to do something about it, including Syria.”

Terrorism, terrorism, terrorism. It has begun to pop up in the Abadi world view almost as often as in an American president’s speeches. And Mosul looms rather too large. There was an unhappy Abadi peroration on the attempt he had made to discover how many civilian casualties there had been in the city. He had been told 1,400 had been killed in 2017, but then found that these included “[only] about six women and four children”. Later, he would say: “I know there were some buildings which were bombed and there were families inside them... There were buildings that were hit by mistake.”

There is much talk of rebuilding Mosul and the importance of allowing the inhabitants to repair their own homes, once bombs had been cleared, and of the problems of multiple ownership of old buildings. He also recalls how he had been anxious to stop Isis from freeing their surrounded fighters in Mosul because Isis had been telling their men that they could escape if they carried on shooting. “We would be forced to negotiate with the terrorists to evacuate them. That was their plan. And of course there was an attempt by Isis to move from Tal Afar. They made a very smart move, but I think we killed that plan. It was dangerous. We discovered it… I think we managed to eliminate them.”

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And so the former – and next? – prime minister of Iraq expresses his worry that economic stability, reunification of the country and the destruction of Isis (his achievements, of course) was “like a ball that’s running and they [the present government of Abdul-Mahdi] have to act to achieve momentum”.

And if they do not? Oh yes, I can see that Abadi will be ready to step into Abdul-Mahdi’s shoes to claim victory over Isis all over again – and teach the American president how to run his Middle East policies, if he really has any.