Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Kentucky

Betting Line: Kentucky +2.5

Over/Under: 46.5

Virginia Tech fell to Virginia in their regular season finale, but I was still impressed with how the Hokies rallied in the second half of the season. Head coach Justin Fuente had this team playing drastically better than early in the season and might have saved his job in the process. One big catalyst in Virginia Tech’s improvement was the switch to Hendon Hooker at quarterback. Hooker has added another gear to Virginia Tech’s offense as he limits turnovers and is more willing to take shots downfield. What will be important is that the offensive line will give Hooker time to set his feet and throw as they give up quite a few sacks. Developing the run with DeShawn McClease will also be important in balancing out the offense. Tre Turner and Damon Hazelton are Hooker’s top two targets and having one of them emerge this game will be huge. Defensively, the Hokies need to be ready to face off with a very run heavy Kentucky offense. Kentucky runs a lot of zone reads and option plays, meaning Virginia Tech has to be disciplined on defense and their players need to hold down their assignments. Linebacker Rayshard Ashby has made plays all over the field this season and he will be asked to do more of the same in this game. Kentucky has a very good offensive line so getting any sort of push will be difficult, but it can really impact the game if it is accomplished. Defensive ends Emmanual Belmar and Tyjuan Garbutt will also be key players in preventing outside runs and spying Kentucky quarterback Lynn Bowden Jr. on option plays. If Virginia Tech just plays disciplined and can make quick reads, their defense will be in a good spot.

Kentucky’s season has had some ups and downs but I have overall been extremely impressed with what they have accomplished despite plenty of injuries and bad breaks. The biggest surprise of the season for Kentucky has been the solid play of Lynn Bowden Jr. at quarterback. Bowden started the season as Kentucky’s top receiver, but after multiple quarterback injuries, the high school quarterback returned to his old position and has seen success. Bowden does not throw the ball often, but has found success running a heavy run and option offense. If Bowden keeps up this strong play and makes the right reads, Kentucky should find some success on the ground. Kentucky also will need their offensive line to create holes for Bowden and running back Asim Rose to run through. It will also be very important for the Wildcats to be effective on third down and maintain possession. While punter Max Duffy is one of the best in the country, it is still ideal to keep the ball and maintain possession. If Kentucky wants to, I think they could easily play more of a ball control style as well. On defense, the Wildcats should try to exploit a faulty Virginia Tech offensive line. Defensive end Calvin Taylor Jr. and linebacker Jamar Watson are the top two on the team in sacks and they will be looked to as the main playmakers on this defense. Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker has a solid arm, but I think that generating chaos can force him to think on his feet more and potentially lead to more mistakes. The Wildcats boast a very good pass defense, and cornerbacks Cedrick Dort and Brandon Echols need to uphold that well against a Virginia Tech team that gets a good portion of their yards and big plays through the air.

Prediction:

Kentucky makes it an ugly game but Virginia Tech pulls out a 24-20 win.

Sun Bowl: Florida State vs Arizona State

Betting Line: Arizona State -4

Over/Under: 54

This season was not a pretty one for Florida State as they had many internal problems and saw head coach Willie Taggart get fired. To be positive, they did manage to pull out six wins unlike last season. Florida State’s offense took a massive hit when running back Cam Akers announced he will sit out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. While Akers might not look to have been some elite running back on paper, he has played with an embarrassingly bad offensive line for most of his career and has taken an absolute beating from opposing defenses often before he can get back to the line of scrimmage. The physical and powerful running of Akers has often times carried this offense. Backup running backs Khalan Laborn and Anthony Grant will also be out, leaving the lead back role to be split between walk-ons Deonte Sheffield and Treshaun Ward. Sheffield and Ward are not and should not be expected to compare to Akers, but they need to provide some contributions if Florida State wants to get anything out of their run game. The Seminoles also need their offensive line to pick up their play a bit and give Sheffield and Ward a chance to generate some consistent yardage. Quarterback James Blackman needs to be ready to face a pass rush and have solid field vision in finding open receivers early. Leading receiver Tamorrion Terry will definitely be the go to guy of the offense and needs to have a good game. The Seminoles have a lot of key absences on defense going into this game. Linebacker Dontavius Jackson and cornerback Stanford Samuels III announced that they will sit out this game to prepare for the draft, defensive tackle Marvin Wilson has a hand injury, safety Jaiden Woodbey has a leg injury, and safety Hamsah Nasirildeen is listed as questionable with a leg injury. I think Nasirildeen will likely play, and he will need to emerge as the leader of the defense as he is far and away their best active player, if he even is active for the game. Defensive end Amari Gainer will be needed to create a good pass rush. Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels has put up strong numbers, but he is a true freshman that is capable of having a freshman mistake filled day if he is in an uncomfortable spot. Gainer and defensive tackle Cory Durden will be two players that are more than capable of making that happen.

Arizona State had a rough middle of the season, but corrected things by beating Oregon and rival Arizona to end year two under Herm Edwards with a 7-5 record. The Sun Devils were hit with some tough news as running back Eno Benjamin announced that he will sit out this game to prepare for the draft, taking away Arizona State’s top offensive playmaker. Leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk will also miss this game for the same reason. This will put a lot more pressure on true freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels has played well in big moments, but has still had some freshman moments. If Daniels can be dynamic through the air and on the ground like he has been, it will create some tough situations for Florida State’s defense. Backup running back AJ Carter will need to provide some support to keep Florida State from solely focusing on Daniels. This will be a tough ask for Carter as he has just 15 carries this season. Frank Darby and Kyle Williams will also need to step up at receiver and at least try to partially fill in Aiyuk’s absence. The less pressure that is going to be put on a true freshman quarterback, the better for the Sun Devils. On defense, defensive end Jermayne Lole and linebacker Khaylan Kearse-Thomas should be able to get a good pass rush on Florida State’s weak offensive line. The biggest concern for the defense will be to have tight coverage against Tamorrion Terry. Terry is Florida State’s leading receiver and best offensive playmaker for this game. Kobe Williams and Chase Lucas need to be sound in coverage and prevent Terry from carrying the Seminoles to success offensively. Florida State will be starting a vastly inexperienced running back and I think trying shut down the pass forcing them to use a walk on to beat their defensive front with a weak offensive line blocking for them will not yield solid results.

Prediction:

Arizona State takes advantage of a beat up Florida State team and wins 27-21.

Liberty Bowl: Navy vs Kansas State

Betting Line: Kansas State +3

Over/Under: 53

After just winning three games in 2018, Navy had an amazing turnaround this season, going 10-2 and beating rival Army. Quarterback Malcolm Perry had an amazing performance against Army, and is a tremendous triple option quarterback. Perry has run for 1,804 yards and 21 touchdowns this season and can challenge opposing defenses through the air when needed. Perry runs the triple option with great discipline and seemingly always makes the smart play. If Perry can continue to make the correct reads and time his pitches properly, the Midshipmen will be in a good spot. Fullback Jamale Carothers was called up to the team four games into the season, but has already established himself as the team’s second leading rusher. Carothers will be another key to the offense, both running the ball and as a run blocker downfield. It is also going to be important for the offensive line to hold up their end of the bargain and make life easier for Perry and the backfield. On defense, the Midshipmen will need to focus on defending the run. Linebacker Jake Springer leads the team in tackles for loss and will be a key player in executing that plan, as will fellow linebacker Diego Fagot who is second on the team in tackles for loss. Kansas State, line Navy likes to sit on the ball, so creating negative plays can force them to not bleed clock if they want to create positive yardage. Winning the battle in the trenches is another important aspect of the game for the Midshipmen. Defensive linemen Jay Warren, Jackson Pittman, and Marcus Edwards have to hold their own up front to prevent Kansas State from pushing them around.

Kansas State really exceeded expectations and had a solid 8-4 record in year one for head coach Chris Klieman. This game will definitely be a tough test for the Wildcats on defense as they will have to prepare for Navy’s triple option attack. Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry is a very dynamic player that can destroy defenses that are not well prepared for Navy’s scheme. Defensive ends Wyatt Hubert and Reggie Walker will need to have a good game if they want to contain Perry. Hubert leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss, so I think he will be the guy that should be trusted the most in terms of making big plays. That being said, committing to assignments is definitely more important against teams like Navy. Creating negative plays will be huge as it could force Navy to pass, which they are never particularly comfortable doing. It will also be important to make stops on third and fourth down to prevent Navy from trying to kill clock. On offense, Kansas State needs to focus on preventing turnovers at all costs and not wasting possessions in a game where Navy will try to control the clock. Quarterback Skylar Thompson can get the job done through the air, but brings his game to another level with his effectiveness as a rushing threat. Thompson will do well at keeping Navy’s defense on their toes if he can be solid in both during this game. Running back James Gilbert will also be needed as a good game from him can take the heat off of Thompson. Kansas State holds onto the ball for longer than all but three FBS teams in the country, and it will be important for them to consistently convert third downs if they want to keep that up.

Prediction:

Kansas State prepares well for the triple option and wins 28-24.

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs Georgia State

Betting Line: Georgia State +7

Over/Under: 47.5

Wyoming is back in bowl action this season after a solid season that was sparked by a win over Missouri on opening weekend. The Cowboys will be going with freshman Levi Williams as the starting quarterback after starter Sean Chambers will be sidelined with a knee injury. Thankfully for Wyoming, they are a bit more of a run oriented team, which can help since Williams has just 13 pass attempts in his career. Running back Xazavian Valladay will need to have a good game and make it to where Williams has to do as little as possible. Valladay leads Wyoming in rushing yards by a good margin and is probably the most important player on the offense for this game. Receiver Raghib Ismail Jr. will also be an important player as he leads the team in receiving yards and he can ease things for Williams with a good game himself. On defense, the Cowboys will need to account for Georgia State quarterback Dan Ellington. Ellington is a solid dual threat quarterback and will be a tough player to stop. Getting a good pass rush with defensive ends Solomon Byrd and Garrett Crall will be a good start, but I think a quarterback spy likely should be in use on obvious passing downs. Ellington is definitely looking to make plays with his legs at all times, and limiting that option could definitely take him out of his element. Ellington is also a bit of a dink and dunk quarterback, so pressing receivers and forcing him to throw deep could definitely be useful. Running back Tra Barnett is going to be a tough guy to slow down as well, but it should be easier with solid play from the defensive front.

Georgia State seemed to have faded after they beat Tennessee in week one, but the Panthers have kept at it en route to a 7-5 finish this season after going 2-10 in 2018. On offense, Georgia State is built around a strong run game led by running back Tra Barnett who has racked up 1,389 rushing yards this season. Barnett is also joined by quarterback Dan Ellington as leaders of the run games as Ellington is a very strong dual threat. For Barnett and Ellington to truly take off, the offensive line needs to have a good day and clear up some space for them to run. Barnett and Ellington also need to have good field vision and hit the hole quickly. Ellington needs to stay accurate with his passes, and he can not be afraid to challenge Georgia State’s secondary. Ellington does not do too much through the air and I think if he can successfully take some shots at Wyoming, it will turn the tide of the game. On defense, the Panthers need to make things as difficult as possible for the inexperienced starting quarterback that Wyoming is trotting out. Georgia State is not typically a team that generates a lot of negative plays, but I think an aggressive mentality for this game will be largely beneficial. Getting a good push up front and being able to penetrate the backfield will be important as it can create chaos and make life harder for Wyoming and freshman quarterback Levi Williams. Wyoming was a run first team with their starter in at quarterback, so I think we can all seduce what they will be with their third best quarterback in.

Prediction:

Wyoming’s defense comes up big in a 23-20 win.

Alamo Bowl: Utah vs Texas

Betting Line: Texas +7

Over/Under: 54.5

Utah ended their regular season on a disappointing note as a win over Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship would have likely netted them a spot in the playoff, but they instead lost and are not even playing in a NY6 Bowl. The Utes are built offensively by a strong offensive line and running back Zack Moss. Moss has run for 1,359 yards this season while averaging over six yards per carry. Moss is a very solid power back and if he keeps his legs moving, he is a tough guy to bring down. A good day for Moss will almost surely mean a good day for the offense. Quarterback Tyler Huntley has really stepped up this season and is becoming a quarterback that can really challenge opponents. Huntley has thrown for 2,966 yards and 18 touchdowns while completing 73% of his passes on over 10, yards per attempt. Huntley just needs to take care of the ball and make the right reads on his passes like he usually does and the Utes should be able to take advantage of a beaten up Texas secondary. Huntley likes to spread the ball around, but the emergence of a single receiver can be quite beneficial for the Utes. On defense, Utah will have to account for Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who is a very strong dual threat and has a tendency to create big plays through chaos. Texas’s offensive line is not the best so I fully expect defensive end Bradlee Anae to have a field day. Anae has 12.5 sacks this season and will look to have more of that same impact against Texas. Fellow defensive end Mika Tafua could also be a player looked that can get a good pass rush. Ehlinger can sometimes pull big plays out of thin air, but it more often leads to mistakes if he is put in a position where he has to think quickly and can not go through his progressions. A quarterback spy will also be recommended and Utah is in luck since they have a rover on their defense in Devin Lloyd. If Lloyd can fill that spot well, it will really throw Texas’s offense for a loop. Texas also has a lot of bigger receivers and Utah will be without cornerback Julian Blackmon, so it will be important for the Utes to hold their own in coverage and not get outmuscled for 50/50 balls.

Texas had a pretty disappointing season, going 7-5. Two things to feel better about (I have just repeated these things over and over until I become fully convinced that we would have won the National Championship if not for this) are the fact the Longhorns were bit badly by the injury bug this season as they have 20 players in the injury report for this game, and they fired both coordinators. One constant this season for Texas this season has been the solid play of quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has been the top playmaker for this offense the last two seasons. Ehlinger has thrown for 3,462 yards and 29 touchdowns while completing 65% of his passes. If he has a good game, Texas will be set up well on offense. It is also going to be important for Texas’s offensive line to hold up. Tackle Denzel Okafor will have the tough task of blocking Utah’s Bradlee Anae who is one of the top pass rushers in the country. Okafor at least needs to hold his own and not let Anae run through him. Tight end Reese Leitao (or Cade Brewer is he plays) will also need to provide some support. Collin Johnson is expected to play at receiver after missing extended time with a hamstring injury, but Devin Duvernay is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. I expect Duvernay to play, but regardless he and Johnson will need to get open quickly and not force Ehlinger to wait for their routes to develop. Running back Keaontay Ingram is also listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If Ingram does not play, Roschon Johnson needs to do well as the lead back. On defense, the Longhorns have literally five important pieces in their secondary listed as questionable for the game. It is hard to get into specifics on what everyone needs to do because I honestly am unsure as to who will suit up and how healthy everyone is. What I will say is that Utah’s Tyler Huntley will be one of the best quarterbacks they have faced and they can not make it easy for him to find open receivers. Win for the battle in the trenches will likely not happen, but at least making it close will be important as Utah running back Zack Moss will run straight through them if that is not the case. Moss bigger power back and Texas will need to do well in pursuit and shedding blocks if they want to slow him down.

Prediction:

Utah takes advantage of a beaten up Texas team that is undergoing renovations and wins 31-23.

Outback Bowl: Minnesota vs Auburn

Betting Line: Auburn -7

Over/Under: 54

Minnesota ended their season on a disappointing note with a 38-17 loss to rival Wisconsin, but fans of the Golden Gophers should he quite happy with how the season went and I think the future is bright in Minneapolis with PJ Fleck as head coach. One surprise this season has been the improved play of quarterback Tanner Morgan. Morgan was primarily a game manager last season, but has really been able to take over games and elevate the offense this season. Morgan is now a big part of the offense and he will need to be accurate with the ball. The Golden Gophers have two elite receivers in Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson and if Morgan can just get the ball in their hands, good things will happen. Minnesota needs to contain Auburn’s elite defensive line, especially defensive tackle Derrick Brown. Auburn’s defensive line is loaded with talent and can easily bottle up an offense if they are not careful. It will be crucial for the offensive line to hold their spots well. Minnesota also needs to keep their offense balanced. Rodney Smith is a bit inconsistent on the ground and I think getting him going will help keep Auburn on their toes. On defense, the Golden Gophers should try and rattle a true freshman in Auburn quarterback Bo Nix. Nix has shown he can handle big moments, but as I have said before, every true freshman has one of those games sometimes where they just seem to have a permanent deer in the headlights look and make a few dumb mistakes. Defensive end Carter Coughlin is the top pass rusher on this team and I think he will be a definite impact player. I think rattling Nix is a fast way to victory for the Golden Gophers, but getting to him will be easier said than done. Linebacker Kamal Martin will sit out this game to prepare for the draft and his loss will definitely be felt.

Auburn fans might feel a bit disappointed at a 9-3 but I was definitely impressed with this season for he Tigers as they did well against a very tough schedule. Auburn has been led by an insanely talented defensive front for this season. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown is one of the best players in college football and will be a definite factor in this game. It will be important for the rest of the defensive line to fill their roles and truly make things tough for Minnesota to develop their run game and give their quarterback little time to throw. Defensive end Nick Coe will be our for this game, but I think Marlon Davidson, Tyrone Truesdel, and Big Kat Bryant should be able to make up for his loss. Cornerbacks Javaris Davis and Noah Igbinoghene also need to hold their own against two very strong receivers that Minnesota has. On offense, the Tigers should really try to develop the run game early and let Bo Nix ease into things through the air. Running back JaTarvious Whitlow will be healthy and DJ Williams has done well in his absence. I think letting the run game develop gives Nix more of a security blanket, especially when we are not sure if Anthony Schwartz will be fully healthy at receiver as he is nursing a knee injury. If Nix can just throw it up to Seth Williams, it all typically lead to good things. Schwartz will play but his knee injury is going to lessen his speed, which is the best part of his game. It will be beneficial for the offense if there is another reliable target besides Williams.

Prediction:

Auburn’s talent ultimately prevails as the Tigers win 31-21.

Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs Alabama

Betting Line: Alabama -7

Over/Under: 58.5

Michigan had an unfortunate end to the regular season as they were blown out by rival Ohio State at home. The Wolverines did improve during the second half of the season and I think a big reason for it was play of quarterback Shea Patterson. Patterson struggled early in the season as he piled up turnovers was not as accurate through the air. First year offensive coordinator Josh Gattis finally got the hang of things and Patterson was able to be more accurate, be more effective as a runner, and take better care of the ball. Patterson needs to avoid reverting back to his old habits and play intelligently. Getting the ball in the hands of receiver Ronnie Bell is an important task as Bell has become the top target for Patterson and has really improved as the season has gone along. Bell, Nico Collins, and Donovan Peoples-Jones are also key players in Patterson’s improvement during the season. It will be important for someone to step up and be effective at running back to keep Alabama’s defense balanced. Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins have showed flashes but have been a bit inconsistent. Michigan’s secondary will have the tough task of covering Alabama’s elite group of receivers. Thankfully for the Wolverines, they have their fair share of talent at cornerback. Lavert Hill has had a good season, but covering Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy will be his toughest task to date. Ambry Thomas will also have a tough task as he will likely be assigned to cover speed demon Henry Ruggs. Hill and Thomas will have a tough time, but if they can hold their own in coverage, it will be very big for the defense. Defensive ends Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson will also have a tough task as they will be lining up against a pair of potential first round picks in Alabama offensive tackles Jedrick Willis and Alex Leatherwood. Getting some sort of resistance and getting a rush will be important.

Alabama finished this season on a disappointing note as they fell to rival Auburn in what will go down as an instant classic. The Crimson Tide will not be playing in the playoff, or at least a NY6 Bowl for the first time since 2010. Even after an injury to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama still boasts a highly prolific offense led by a very impressive group of receivers. Jerry Jeudy is the star of the group and is the best receiver in the upcoming NFL Draft class with very good speed and route running. Henry Ruggs also is a likely first round pick as he has some serious wheels. Jeudy and Ruggs are accompanied by very overqualified third and fourth options in DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. If any of those four can find a clear matchup advantage over whoever covers them, it will make things run pretty smoothly. Quarterback Mac Jones is a clear drop off from Tua Tagovailoa, but the gap is not as wide as I would have expected. Jones needs to keep that up and try to minimize the gap between him and Tagovailoa as much as possible. On the ground, I expect Najee Harris to be reliable and I think he will be if he has a good day and the offensive line keeps up their typical play. Alabama’s defense was hurt when it came out that cornerback Trevon Diggs and linebacker Terrell Lewis would sit out this game to prepare for the draft. Diggs is Alabama’s best cornerback so he will be tough to replace. Jalyn Armour-Davis will need to step up as a start and Patrick Surtain II needs to do the same as the top cornerback. Coverage will still need to be stout as Michigan is more of a passing team as they have previously been. I also think the Crimson Tide should focus on getting a good pass rush against Michigan and force their quarterback to think quick. Defensive end Raekwon Davis and jack linebacker Anfernee Jennings are the clear best two players on an injury riddled front seven and a good game from them will definitely be necessary for that to be accomplished.

Prediction:

Alabama plays like a team with something to prove and wins 34-24.

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