The Toronto condo market is making wild, erratic price swings as buyers try to figure out where the market is heading. July numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) show that some neighbourhoods are seeing prices rise by 10s of thousands of dollars. At the same time, other neighbourhoods are seeing prices decline by 10s of thousands of dollars. All this while sales are plummeting.

Condo Price Growth Deceleration

The price of a condo is still very much higher than last year, but price growth is quickly decelerating. The benchmark price across TREB, which is the price of a typical condo, is now $463,000, a 0.94% decline from the month before. In the 416 proper, the benchmark is now $481,300, a decline of 0.8% from last month. Both prices are still at huge annual gains, with the TREB benchmark condo still up 27.87%, and the 416 benchmark up 29.36% from the same month last year. Worth noting that benchmark price gains are decelerating very quickly however. Just last month the annual gains were at 30.6% (TREB) and 32.16% (416). Still huge profits either way, just…less now.

Breaking down the benchmark by region, not all prices are moving in the same direction. The largest gains were made in the Malvern-Rouge Valley Area of Toronto (TREB E11), where prices are now $30,400 higher than last month. The benchmark price in the E11 region is now $435,800, a 64% increase from the same month last year. The largest price drop is currently in the Beaches-Woodbine Corridor (TREB E02), where prices declined $32,200 from last month. The benchmark price in E02 is now $681,900, up 9.24% from last year. This market very much depends where you are, with more affluent neighbourhoods not being where the biggest profits are being made.

Source: TREB.

Condo Sales Decline Over 28%

Sales of condos across the GTA took a nosedive, especially in the suburbs. TREB reported 1,840 sales, a decline of 30.7% from the same month last year. Breaking that down, the 416 saw 1,345 of those sales, a 28.3% decline from the same time last year. In the 905, there was 495 sales, a 35.5% decline when compared to the same month last year. The 905 saw sales drop a little faster than the 416, but both saw substantial declines either way.

Source: TREB.

Condo Listings Decline 9%

The number of listings in the GTA are also declining. TREB reported 3,421 new listings, a decline of 19.4% from the month before. This also represents a 9% decline from the same time last year. Listings dropped, but not as fast as sales – so this technically should have relieved some pricing pressure. The sales to new listing ratio for condos has fallen to the lowest since January 2016, about 24% lower than it was the same time last year.

A little air has been let out of the condo market, but buyers of lower end units appear to be optimistic. Although condo buyers that bought with a 5% down, high-ratio mortgages last month would be underwater, or very near to underwater, in 3 Toronto regions before expenses today. After expenses, you’re looking at closer to 2 in 5 neighbourhoods. On the flip side, 3 out of 5 neighbourhoods saw a high-ratio benchmark buyer above water. So there’s that. Bottom line, it’s pretty risky to buy and flip in less than 12 months like the 7% of seller that did just a few months ago. Although who knows what people will be thinking next month.

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