The most cursory glance at the accompanying ABS building approvals graph shows that the shadow “seasonally adjusted” line is too erratic to mean much from month to month. That’s why the ABS reports the trend figures first and prints the trend line darker – but the market commentators all seem to concentrate on that ratbag seasonal number. Remember all the “China slowing” stories, not to mention the occasional “China’s collapsing”? Turns out China is growing nicely. Throughout all those headlines about various purchasing managing indices allegedly showing Chinese industrial production contracting, it’s actually continued to surge – as the accompanying RBA graph shows. Now that the PMIs are back above 50, nothing much has changed. Oh, it’s a positive, but it’s only a matter of degree. And so it goes. The bigger number, the wilder swing dominate proceedings. And if it’s a scarier story, it will certainly strike chords. When there’s something of a national desire to find the dark lining to a relatively silver cloud, it will be found.

There’s a small army of market economists who should know better, but, hey, you’re not likely to get quoted if you’re hosing down the national mood. It feeds into an attitude that amazes foreign observers, Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz is just the latest in telling us we don’t know how good we have it, joining the likes of Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein and, well, just about everyone with a little perspective. It’s one of the things that sets today’s Reserve Bank board meeting apart from the noise of the hoi polloi and the market economists forever offering the central bank advice on the administration of monetary policy. The RBA has to keep a much broader perspective, considering both where the Australian economy really is and where it might be next year, all within the context of a complicated world. It’s a far cry from the myths created during a three-year election campaign or the rantings of various radio shock jocks that seem to do more to shape that national mood than do RBA monetary policy statements. While we’re now officially crap at cricket, we remain the World Champion of economics, albeit champions with challenges ahead. It’s not possible to deal rationally with those challenges without first being able to rationally understand where we’re at and what is possible in the short term.

That’s why the RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting today – not because there’s an election on Saturday. Last month’s board minutes and the August 9 monetary policy statement spelt out the challenges and encouraging signs. Since the last meeting, the international picture has remained volatile but, on balance, no worse. The trend building approvals figures along with APRA’s figures for new housing loans, among other sources, indicate the dwelling investment bet is coming off. You can continue to get a better grip on what’s really happening by reading the RBA board minutes than listening to politicians and commentators caught up in that misled national mood. Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor