michael barbaro

From The New York Times, I’m Michael Barbaro. This is “The Daily.” Last night’s election for governor of Kentucky is drawing outsized attention because of what it may tell us about the politics of impeachment. Jonathan Martin on how a local race became a national test. It’s Wednesday, November 6. Jonathan, what was happening in the Kentucky governor’s race back in April?

archived recording Teachers united! Teachers united!

jonathan martin

So Governor Matt Bevin, the incumbent Republican, was pursuing very controversial pension overhauls in the state for state employees. And teachers were striking in protest.

archived recording Hey, hey, what do you say? [CHANTING]

jonathan martin

And speaking to reporters in the State Capitol, the governor, deeply angry about the teachers’ sick-out, said, essentially —

archived recording (matt bevin) I guarantee you, somewhere in Kentucky today, a child was sexually assaulted that was left at home because there was nobody there to watch them.

jonathan martin

— that they were accessories to child molestation.

michael barbaro

And how did that go over?

jonathan martin

It created a huge backlash.

archived recording He just, by the way, just made crazy things up. And I find it odd that his mind went there in the first place.

jonathan martin

And it reinforced for a lot of Kentuckians, even Republicans, that this was a governor who was prone to be his own worst enemy.

archived recording 1 Senate Minority Leader Ray Jones said Bevin crossed the line when he insulted public teachers. archived recording 2 We have a governor who’s not even from Kentucky.

jonathan martin

And it also, I think, hurt his agenda, because it made his would-be allies in the state legislature less inclined to support his already controversial push to overhaul state pensions.

archived recording I don’t know what kind of person thinks like that. I just — it’s appalling. It’s inexcusable. And there are just — there aren’t words to describe.

jonathan martin

So, of course, when you’re accusing teachers of aiding and abetting the child molestation of children, that’s going to create a significant backlash because people are A, offended by that kind of rhetoric, and B, because a lot of them are family members or friends or neighbors of these teachers who are being accused of this vile act.

michael barbaro

Right. And maybe C, because it’s factually very —

jonathan martin

Preposterous, right.

michael barbaro

And what are some of the other examples, Jonathan, of Governor Bevin being his own worst enemy, as you said?

jonathan martin

It’s a constant combativeness over issues large and small, lashing out at the media almost weekly.

archived recording (matt bevin) I don’t frankly have enough time to do my job, which is what you elected me to do, and also try to counteract every single misinformation that is put out there by the media.

jonathan martin

Not answering questions about accountability, basic questions about his use of the state plane, questions about his own private residence, how he paid for it.

archived recording (matt bevin) If the taxpayers didn’t pay for it, it’s none of their business. Simple as that — it really is. If the taxpayers didn’t pay for it, why should they care?

jonathan martin

In addition to his controversial conduct, he also pursued policies that angered a lot of Kentuckians, one being this overhaul of the state pension system, which is what prompted the protest in the first place from the teachers. But also trying to undo parts of the state’s Medicaid expansion —

archived recording (matt bevin) This is good for the individual. It is good for the community. It is good for the workforce. It is good for the economy. It is good for Kentucky. And it’s good for America.

jonathan martin

— which not only put a lot of Kentuckians on the health care rolls, got them insured, but also was a boon to the state’s health care industry, which, in a lot of rural counties in the state, is one of the dominant employers now. So he goes into the summer of his re-election with this deep unpopularity — according to some polls, the most unpopular governor in America.

michael barbaro

And does Bevin have a viable challenger? Are Democrats trying to take advantage of what would seem like an opportunity here?

jonathan martin

Yeah. In fact, even though Kentucky has become a fairly red state in recent years, there is still a bench of Democrats there who are vying to run against him. And there’s a pretty competitive Democratic primary. And —

archived recording (andy beshear) Like half of Kentucky, my family has pre-existing conditions. We’re lucky they’re not serious. But that’s not the case for Lucas Stevens and thousands of Kentuckians. And Matt Bevin is trying to take away their health care. I’m Andy Beshear.

jonathan martin

Andy Beshear emerges from that. He is the state attorney general, who is the son of the governor who preceded Matt Bevin, Steve Beshear.

archived recording (andy beshear) As governor, I’ll work to lower health care costs for all of us. Governor Bevin won’t.

jonathan martin

And actually it was Andy Beshear’s father, the former governor, who accepted the expansion of Medicaid under President Obama’s Affordable Care Act.

michael barbaro

Jonathan, help me understand the politics of Kentucky that would allow this red state to have a governor’s seat that flips back and forth between Republican and Democrat.

jonathan martin

It’s a really fascinating state. Because of the ancestral ties of voters in eastern and western Kentucky to the Democratic Party, up until very recently, they were still voting for Democrats at the local and state level. Even as they were overwhelmingly backing G.O.P. presidents, senators like Mitch McConnell, their preference was still for local and state Democrats. So you had Democrats winning the governor’s race as recently as 2007, 2011. Beshear’s father won twice pretty easily. Now that has changed in recent years. As recently as 2004, when John Kerry was the Democratic nominee for president, he carried some of these historically Democratic counties, not by huge margins, but he carried them. If you flash forward to 2016, when Hillary Clinton is on the ballot, not only is she losing some of those old Democratic counties in rural eastern Kentucky and western Kentucky. She’s losing them by 60- and 70-point margins.

michael barbaro

Wow.

jonathan martin

And I think the reason for that is because you had a politics that was still not quite as nationalized as politics has become in the last four to five years.

michael barbaro

So with all that in mind, Jonathan, how does this race start to play out once Bevin becomes so vulnerable and Beshear emerges as his challenger?

jonathan martin

You have the incumbent governor and his national allies recognizing pretty fast that they have to change the narrative of this race. It cannot be a pure referendum on the incumbent. Because if that’s the case, they’re going to lose, and they’re going to lose pretty convincingly. So what do you do if you’re a Republican in a red state like Kentucky?

archived recording (matt bevin) We stand proudly with the president and vice president of the United States of America.

jonathan martin

Well, you nationalize the race.

archived recording (matt bevin) We saw the animosity, the vitriol, the insanity of what was coming out of Washington even just yesterday, where the mockery that is being made of the political process and the disregard and the disrespect by the elected officials themselves in Washington —

jonathan martin

You make it about Democratic figures nationally, and you make it about hot-button issues that are going to move voters in the state who might not like you as the incumbent, but they don’t like Democratic policies and national Democratic leaders at the same time.

michael barbaro

You make it not about Kentucky.

jonathan martin

Yeah.

archived recording (matt bevin) This is Trump country. Let there be no doubt about it. [CROWD CHEERING] No doubt about it.

jonathan martin

Are you on Team Red, or are you on Team Blue? Because Bevin’s calculation is if it’s about that, if it’s a tribal question, in a red state like Kentucky, where Trump won by 30 points in 2016, I’m going to win this thing.

michael barbaro

And what is the Democrat, Beshear, doing?

jonathan martin

Well, Beshear wants it to be about Kentucky.

archived recording (andy beshear) And, folks, this race comes down to four critical issues — pensions, public education, jobs and health care.

jonathan martin

He wants it to be about Bevin’s unpopularity.

archived recording (andy beshear) And on every single one of them, Matt Bevin is wrong.

jonathan martin

And keep it away from Washington, keep it away from President Trump, portray himself as a safe, pragmatic choice, a last name that voters in the state are familiar with —

michael barbaro

Right.

jonathan martin

— and somebody who’s not going to bring the kind of drama that Bevin has brought for the last four years.

archived recording (andy beshear) Matt Bevin is reckless and erratic.

jonathan martin

And Beshear is doing a pretty good job, actually, for most of the summer and going into the fall, of making this about Matt Bevin, and have you had enough of this incumbent after four years of turbulence in the State Capitol? And then something unexpected happens.

michael barbaro

Which is what?

jonathan martin

In an election where Matt Bevin desperately wanted to change the issue matrix from state politics to national politics, what falls in his lap, like Santa dropping something on Christmas morning, but the impeachment of the president that the state loves?

[music]

michael barbaro

We’ll be right back. So, Jonathan, what happens to this race once impeachment is underway?

jonathan martin

Well, it becomes the first and most important test of the political resonance of impeachment and how this is playing out in electoral politics. Can a Republican governor who’s deeply unpopular salvage his re-election in a red state by essentially nationalizing it and asking voters, are you on the side of House Democrats and the impeachment of a president that you like, or are you on the side of President Trump?

archived recording Andy Beshear stood with Hillary. When she lost, he became part of the radical resistance repeatedly suing to stop Trump’s agenda.

jonathan martin

And the final weeks of the campaign focused squarely on asking voters, which side are you on?

archived recording Andy Beshear’s with them, not us.

michael barbaro

Right. The question is, are Kentuckians ready to vote for a deeply unpopular Republican governor who has challenged their pension system and tried to take away their Medicaid over a Democratic candidate who is saying, I’m going to protect those pensions. I am going to protect that Medicaid, the very things that the Republican is trying to take away?

jonathan martin

Yes, and it gets to the central test of this race, which is, what is the greater motivator for voters? Are they going to go into the ballot booth on Tuesday, and are they going to be voting on their deep disdain for Matt Bevin and the policies that he’s pursued that you just outlined? Or are they going to show up on Tuesday at the polls and register their love for President Trump and their deep disdain for the national Democratic Party?

michael barbaro

And that’s when you decide to go to Kentucky.

jonathan martin

Yeah, so late last month, I went down to Kentucky because I was so fascinated by what was becoming this not only interesting governor’s race, but this, I think, super important national political story about what is more compelling to voters in this moment, their clear local and state preference, or their national instincts and sort of tribal preference?

michael barbaro

And what did you find?

jonathan martin

What was actually great about going down there is that I spent time with both candidates.

andy beshear Let’s certainly admit that Matt Bevin is trying to hide behind a party, or a president, or anything else he can, because he has a disastrous record here in Kentucky.

jonathan martin

I was at a Democratic county dinner in Georgetown, Kentucky, which is just north of Lexington. And after Beshear spoke to the Democratic group, I got a few minutes to chat with him.

michael barbaro

And what does he say about the fact that this race is becoming the national contest that he never wanted it to be?

jonathan martin

He is trying to turn that to his own benefit by saying that Bevin is hiding behind President Trump to try to save himself.

andy beshear He has to find something to hide behind. But he certainly isn’t running on anything that a governor directly impacts here in Kentucky.

jonathan martin

And he’s studiously avoided saying anything controversial about President Trump or taking a side on the impeachment inquiry. I asked him a question I ask a lot of politicians, which is, do you think President Trump’s a good man?

andy beshear I don’t know the president, but I know that I can work with any president when they are doing something good for Kentucky.

jonathan martin

And he said he doesn’t know President Trump, and then quickly pivoted to saying, I’ll work with him for Kentucky, and offering a line I’ve heard before, which is, if it’s good for my state, I’ll work with him. If it’s bad, I’ll oppose him.

michael barbaro

What about Bevin?

jonathan martin

So I went to this community about 40 miles south of Louisville, a pretty conservative part of the state. And it was a Shoney’s, where there was a breakfast rally for Bevin, who was embarking on this multi-day bus tour. And they packed this Shoney’s.

matt bevin Guys, let’s get the whole ticket real quick under the Shoney’s sign.

michael barbaro

What is a Shoney’s?

jonathan martin

Shoney’s is a reasonably priced restaurant, very popular off highways and interstates, mostly known for its breakfast, but also serves lunch and dinner as well.

speaker 1 It was pretty amazing. speaker 2 Yes. You don’t have to tell me that. I know.

jonathan martin

But what was so telling is that the Republicans who were there, they weren’t wearing Bevin buttons or Bevin shirt to Bevin hats. They were all wearing Trump hats and Trump buttons. They’re motivated more by Trump and by their opposition to Democrats than they are for Matt Bevin. And the governor clearly recognizes that, because in his stump speech, he’s talking about national Democrats and how extreme they are. He’s talking about policy issues that are more national, like immigration, than local issues. And obviously he’s talking about his support for President Trump and Andy Beshear’s opposition to President Trump in his stump speech.

jonathan martin Governor, I want to ask you, what has the impeachment inquiry of the president done to this race? matt bevin It’s made people in this state ticked off that we have a bunch of liberals in Washington, D.C., whose knickers are in such a twist over the fact that this guy was elected president that they will do anything to try to undermine the legitimacy of what he’s doing. People in Kentucky respect and appreciate this president. They respect and appreciate —

jonathan martin

And when I said, why is this race even competitive, given how conservative the state is becoming? Not only did he say that he didn’t think the race was, in fact, all that competitive, he even gave me a prediction.

matt bevin I think you’re going to be shocked at how uncompetitive this actually is. jonathan martin So you think that your margin is going to be — matt bevin I’d say 6 to 10 percent. But we’ll see. I mean, at the end of the day, the voters decide that.

jonathan martin

You don’t hear politicians of any party, for any office, often predict their margin of victory in interviews. But he sure did.

michael barbaro

So this is bravado.

jonathan martin

But this is Bevin. He loves the back and forth. And when pressed, he says things that can be pretty controversial.

matt bevin Do you have any real questions? jonathan martin I got ‘em. See you. matt bevin O.K., thank you. Good to see you.

michael barbaro

And at this point, do you have a sense on the ground, Jonathan, of who this impeachment issue is working better for, the Democrat or the Republican?

jonathan martin

Oh, well, clearly, it’s been helping the Republican, because it allowed Bevin to make what was not a very competitive race a much more competitive race going into Election Day.

michael barbaro

How competitive?

jonathan martin

Well, polls have showed the race closing. Earlier in the year, Beshear was leading more comfortably, and now you have a much more competitive race. Both public and private surveys suggest that this is a race that is under five points.

michael barbaro

So basically a kind of dead heat.

jonathan martin

Seemed like it.

[music]

michael barbaro

And then —

archived recording (donald trump) Well, I just want to say a very big hello, Kentucky. [CROWD CHEERING]

jonathan martin

President Trump can’t stay away, and he steps into the story.

archived recording (donald trump) Tomorrow, the people of Kentucky will head to the polls, and you will vote to re-elect your terrific Republican governor Matt Bevin. He’s done a fantastic job. [CROWD CHEERING]

jonathan martin

On election eve, he has a rally in Lexington, the storied Rupp Arena, the home of the U.K. Wildcats, and about fills the arena on behalf of Matt Bevin. And in Trumpian fashion, he allows that Bevin is a pain in the ass. Those are his words — his words, not ours.

archived recording (donald trump) He’s such a pain. When he needs something for Kentucky, like money, like aid, like he wants me to call one of the many manufacturers now that are coming into Kentucky —

jonathan martin

But tries to portray Bevin as a pain in the ass on behalf of the people of the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

archived recording (donald trump) Could you call the head of some company in Japan, please? I say, Matt, do I have to do it? Please, please. But isn’t that really what you want in a governor? [CROWD CHEERING]

jonathan martin

And then he says, if we lose here, it’s going to look bad nationally. It’s going to send a bad message. Don’t let me down.

archived recording (donald trump) Here’s the story. If you win, they’re going to make it like, ho hum. And if you lose, they’re going to say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world. This was the greatest. You can’t let that happen to me.

michael barbaro

So Trump somewhat explicitly says, this is about me.

jonathan martin

Yes. Trump is the icing on the cake for the nationalization of this race by the Republicans.

michael barbaro

So, Jonathan, you and I are talking now at around 4:18 on Tuesday. Where do things stand in the race?

jonathan martin

It’s uncertain. I mean, there is genuine drama. You talk to a lot of Democrats, they believe that they have a chance to win, probably narrowly. But you talk to a lot of Republicans, both in Kentucky and in D.C., and they are just skeptical that any Democrat can win in that state at this point.

michael barbaro

So this might be less of an indicator in terms of how national elections might go with impeachment as a backdrop, and maybe more an indicator of whether there’s really such a thing as a local race anymore. If a candidate offering people in Kentucky what they seem to want, policy-wise, loses to a candidate saying he will take things away from people that they want, what does that tell us about the nature of any election anymore?

jonathan martin

Well, that the old Tip O’Neill maxim that all politics is local has been flipped, and all politics is now national. And that it’s going to be tough for a candidate, even in the best of circumstances, to localize a campaign if they’re running against the wind in terms of the partisan preference of the state. So this is not just about one state and one governor’s race. This is about, is all politics nationalized now? Can Democrats still win in red states under good circumstances? Because if they can’t here, I think you’re going to see less investment in Democratic candidates in red America in 2020 and after.

michael barbaro

Right, and if a governor, who literally has no role in national politics, cannot be local, the idea that a congressman, congresswoman or a senator could be local, that seems even less possible.

jonathan martin

Yeah. You just ask the members of Congress who lost their races last year, in the House, with Republicans who said, you know me. I’m not Donald Trump. I’m your long-serving, pragmatic, pork-bearing incumbent who has served you ably for X number of years. The voters in a lot of those districts turned a deaf ear to that plea. At the same time, you had red-state Democratic senators who said, I’m not some crazy, wild-eyed liberal. I’m a moderate. You know me. I’ve delivered for this state and helped the farmers here. And guess what? The red-state voters in those states rejected that appeal in support of the Republicans. And I think that is why it’s going to have implications for 2020 as well, because I think the handful of the House Democrats who do pursue impeachment who come from more conservative districts could pay a price for that.

[music]

michael barbaro

Thank you, Jonathan.

jonathan martin

Thanks, guys.

[music]

eric krupke

O.K., so what happened?

jonathan martin

It’s 10:50. We’re still in the newsroom. With 100 percent of votes in, Andy Beshear has won the governorship of Kentucky. But the catch — Governor Matt Bevin is not conceding. He said tonight to supporters that he wants to see all the rules followed. Basically, he’s just buying time. It’s pretty clear that Beshear is going to win the election.

eric krupke

So not all politics are national.

jonathan martin

Well, even in deep red Kentucky, a governor can only be so unpopular and still win re-election, no matter how red the state is.

michael barbaro