Take the economy, for example, which is currently in the longest economic expansion in American history. The economy has grown for 121 consecutive months. But Trump inherited that growth, and 91 of those months (75 percent of the streak) came under Barack Obama’s presidency. If Trump is reelected, it will be because of the continuation of that inherited growth — a continuation that is being fueled by unsustainable deficit spending more on par with the spending levels needed during a financial crisis.

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But the area where Trump’s luck is most obvious — and more potentially consequential — is in foreign policy. He has been the author of several potentially destabilizing crises, written primarily with unhinged, bellicose tweets. Trump threatened “fire and fury” against North Korea in a game of Twitter chicken with a nuclear-armed rogue state. He launched a trade war with China that threatens to destabilize the global economy. And he has alienated allies while cozying up to despots and dictators.

But every other recent president has faced major crises early in their term that were not of their own making. Global politics is a perpetual motion machine for potentially catastrophic risk. Every recent president has learned that lesson almost immediately upon moving into the White House.

Ronald Reagan, who was shot by a would-be assassin after two months on the job, then had to defuse tensions after Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was assassinated a few months later. That was followed by the outbreak of the Falklands Islands War and the 1982 Lebanon War. Less than 10 months after George H.W. Bush took office, the Berlin Wall fell, ushering in a period of transformation linked with many serious risks. Nine months after Bill Clinton took the oath of office, the Black Hawk Down incident in Somalia roiled U.S. foreign policy; the Rwandan genocide, which left an estimated 800,000 people dead, broke out months later. George W. Bush faced Sept. 11 less than eight months after being sworn in. And Obama didn’t even have a buffer of a few months: He faced the worst economic calamity in American history since the Great Depression, which became a foreign policy crisis as its effects extended overseas.

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Trump’s international crises, by comparison, have been of his own making.

His supporters would likely contest that claim, pointing to the spike in attempted immigration crossings. But there have been far fewer border apprehensions than there were in the early 2000s, indicating a lower level of attempted migration. In fact, during Trump’s first year on the job, the rate of border crossings was at its lowest since 1971. Further afield, Trump did have to deal with a chemical weapons attack in Syria after just a few months on the job, but despite its horrors, the risks of that attack were largely localized.

Unfortunately, no president can be lucky indefinitely. That maxim is particularly true with Trump, who made decisions early in his presidency that are now creating predictable — but potentially catastrophic — consequences. He is a chaos agent, and that chaos is finally catching up to him — and to us.

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The escalating crisis in Iran was made exponentially more dangerous by his misguided decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Trump’s appeasement of Vladimir Putin has made Russian aggression more likely, particularly when it comes to cyberattacks in 2020. Trump’s attacks on allies have created a crisis of global leadership, particularly in the West. That power vacuum is being layered on top of every other global risk, amplifying existing threats. His cheerleading for despots has given a free pass to authoritarian governments across the globe, entrenching regimes that will inevitably cough up geopolitical calamities in the future. And by using the blunt instrument of tariffs against China when a strategic scalpel would have been more effective, Trump has heightened geopolitical tensions while exposing the United States to greater economic peril.

When Trump’s luck runs out, as it inevitably will, so too will America’s. Presumably, Trump is banking on the hope that the damage from his diplomatic gambles will be felt only after he either is reelected or leaves office. It’s certainly possible. And if that’s the case, Trump will have taken his business strategy to the White House — gamble, risk it all, and when you lose, walk away or stick someone else with the bill. But this time, it won’t be contractors and construction companies who have to deal with the losses. It’ll be us.