The Leafs’ breakout has been a hot topic for a while now. Many fans have grown frustrated with the team’s reliance on flip-outs and stretch passes over the past year, reaching a fever pitch Tuesday night after Vegas hemmed Toronto in their own end for the majority of the second and third periods. Considering the emphasis on puck possession in the modern game, a lot of us have been wondering: is Toronto’s breakout strategy flawed?



The numbers



Let’s start with what we know. Erik Tulsky’s groundbreaking research taught us that NHL teams generate twice as much offence off of a controlled zone entry (carry-in) compared to an uncontrolled entry (dump-in). A few years later, Alex Novet’s work demonstrated that getting the puck out of the defensive zone with possession is more likely to lead to a controlled entry, which is what makes it so concerning that Toronto ranked dead last in this area in 2017-18, according to Corey Sznajder’s...