A Peak At The Preakness

The Preakness is the Kentucky Derby’s trashy distant relative. The Kentucky Derby has a big house with a living room that the kids aren’t allowed in because it’s only for company. When the Kentucky Derby throws a party, it is catered and guests are expected to dress well. The Preakness has a house with a leaky roof and an old washer and dryer with weeds growing around them sitting in the front yard. When the Preakness throws a party, there are hot dogs on the grill and you can usually find the Preakness sitting in a lawn chair with his feet in an inflatable kiddie pool while he smokes a cigarette and drinks a tall can. Needless to say, I’m a big fan of the Preakness. The second leg of the Triple Crown knows how to party and I like to party.

Each year the infield is filled with drunken hooligans and each year cheap booze fuels their recklessness. For years patrons could bring in their own alcohol and they obliged. Kids could make a killing just by showing up with a wagon and helping haul the mountains of cheap thirty packs that groups would bring in. The extraordinary amount of beer cans, drunk people and portable toilets led to the proud tradition in which people tried to run across the tops of the porta potties while others threw beer cans at them in an attempt to knock them over. The atmosphere in the Pimlico infield has fostered several great racing moments, including foreign objects being tossed at horses while running a race and my personal favorite racing moment of all time: when someone ran onto the track and tried to punch a horse in the face as he was running down the home stretch. Check it out on YouTube if you are so inclined, any type of search with Preakness and fan or drunk guy on track or trying to punch a racehorse will get you there.

The first year that Pimlico decided not to allow people to bring their own booze, attendance in the infield plummeted. Public safety is important, but not more important than money, so to bring back the party they started a new tradition the next year. They started the sensible policy of selling unlimited beer for $20. The masses have returned and while the porta potty runs are no longer the main attraction; the all day bottomless beer mugs ensure a lively atmosphere. The infield will have plenty of vomit, fights and passed out individuals. And after a long day of over-drinking on the lawn, when the Preakness winner is finally crowned, he will be draped with flowers that sound like they are named after battered women, black-eyed Susans.

The race of the people appeals to me not just because of the good times to be had for those in attendance, it also offers one of my favorite horse betting opportunities of the year. Large sums of money will be wagered by drunks and pros alike, and the bigger the betting pools, the bigger the possible payouts, especially in the exotic pools, which I will play hard. For the laymen, exotic bets are bets involving more than one horse, like an exacta which is a bet on who will finish first and second in a race, or a pick 3 which is a bet on who will win in three consecutive races. Favorites have a good recent history in the Preakness, and other horses that win or hit the board are usually well regarded, crazy upsets have not been common. The race has shown to be more predictable than the Kentucky Derby, but payouts for the exotic bets are usually much juicier than I would expect from a race that lacks big upsets. So let’s examine the field, look at recent history and figure out what to bet.

Most years, the Kentucky Derby winner is the favorite in the Preakness. When the Kentucky Derby has been won by the favorite and he goes on to run in the Preakness, he is usually bet down to odds-on, meaning a win bet will pay less that 1:1. After winning the derby, American Pharoah will be a big favorite on Saturday. If you are a fan of his and plan on betting him to win, the best odds you can hope for is even money, right now he is 4-5 on the morning line. The odds may go lower because a look at most betting angles and recent history all indicate that this race is American Pharoah’s to lose. His trainer, Bob Baffert has won the derby three previous times, and each time his horse went on to win the Preakness. The two other Baffert trained horses that won the Preakness were beaten favorites in the derby. When Bob Baffert shows up to the Preakness with the horse that was favored in the derby, he wins. So why would anyone pick another horse to win the Preakness? Because anything can happen in horse racing and if you want to find a reason to fade the favorite, there is usually something to nitpick. He did draw post position 1 which is generally unfavorable, he is more likely to have traffic issues from there, but it is not nearly as bad with an eight horse field as it would have been in the derby. The best argument against American Pharoah is that maybe the derby took too much out of him and he is due to regress. He won his first two races of the year by open lengths and in each race, the jockey, Victor Espinoza, did not have to urge him on. In the Kentucky Derby, American Pharoah was in a battle all the way down the stretch and won by a length. Espinoza, who had not whipped him once in his prior two races, had to get busy on the horse and used the whip over thirty times. Maybe the horse gave all he had on the first Saturday in May. Maybe two weeks is not enough to recover from the toughest race of his life. Or maybe you just don’t like to bet favorites, a bad break of a freak injury is always possible so who else is there to play?

Unfortunately, this year the field is small, and that means lower odds for all the horses involved. This year looks to be the smallest field in decades, so payouts on wagers specific to this race don’t look to be too high. Most money that isn’t bet on the favorite will likely go to the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the derby, Firing Line and Dortmund. Both are quality horses that would be big favorites if they weren’t facing each other or American Pharoah. Both ran well in Kentucky and both should benefit from the smaller field and shorter distance of the Preakness. In the derby, Dortmund led the field at a slower than average pace up until the home stretch when he was passed. He hung on for third and depending on your point of view the race showed his potential or it showed his flaws. On the positive side, horses on the lead in the derby tend to fade towards the back of the pack at the finish. The fact that only two horses passed him shows his strength, and only a few other horses were gaining on him down the stretch. It is tough to get to the front of an 18 horse race early and still have something in the tank at the end. With less horses to get in front of and a shorter distance to travel, if Dortmund gained some fitness from the derby, he has a good shot to take this field wire to wire. On the negative side, Dortmund had a relatively easy run in the derby and still couldn’t beat Firing Line or American Pharoah. The pace at the start of the race was soft and the opening half mile was run a second or two slower than I expected. Two seconds may not sound like much but it translates to about ten horse-lengths when they are running on the track, so visually, it’s a big gap. Dortmund got to run slower than normal to make the lead and he still couldn’t hang on, if those things influence your bets, you likely won’t want to put any cash on Dortmund.

Firing Line finished second in the Kentucky Derby, beaten by about a length. He sat second for most of the race and then made his move at the head of the stretch. It would have normally been the winning move, but American Pharoah was sitting just off Firing Line, moved at the same time, and was just a little too much to handle for the last eighth of a mile. It was a two horse race down the stretch and the winning margin was not big, nor was it increasing by much. Firing Line was game in defeat and he has not given any indication that he can’t do better. All reports out of his camp say the horse is doing great after the race. He has eaten everything they have given him since the derby. This may seem like a trivial detail, but horses are often spent after a big race and will lay around for a day of two without eating as much. Some drop weight after a race and how fast they put it back on can show how quickly they recovered. I have heard nothing but positive comments about Firing Line’s weight or appetite so there’s no reason to think he can’t improve by a length or two in his next race. On the other hand, I have heard that American Pharoah looked a few pounds lighter after the derby and while I have heard no other specific bad news, I cannot say for sure if he has put the weight back on or if his appetite has been strong. The Baffert camp has only released positive quotes about American Pharoah but those quotes have all been light on specifics so I will take them with a grain of salt. After Super Saver won the Kentucky Derby a few years back, he dropped weight that he did not get back by the Preakness and he failed to hit the board in that race. There was little word about the weight loss leading up to the Preakness, but as they loaded the horses into the gates, one announcer mentioned that Super Saver looked like he had lost weight and right then I knew any money I had on him was likely dead. I wish that kind of information was more readily available, but that’s why they call it gambling, and that’s one of the many reasons why horse racing is shady.

Danzig Moon and Divining Rod will probably be fourth and fifth betting choices with morning line odds of 15-1 and 12-1 respectively. They don’t look to be nearly as hopeless as the rest of the field. I don’t think either has a good shot to win but they could steal third if one of the top three falters. Danzig Moon ran 5th in the derby, six and a half lengths behind the winner and three and a half lengths back of Dortmund in third. He was running in fourth at the second call and gradually lost touch with the leading group down the stretch. It was a decent run but it’s tough envision him turning the tables on all of the top three. Divining Rod did not run in the derby, his last race was a win in a graded stakes race at Keeneland, before that he was third behind Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby. He has been forwardly placed early on in most of his races so he may affect the pace of the race but he looks to be closer to Danzig Moon than the top three as far as talent goes.

On paper, the other three horses in the race merit little attention. Bodhisattva does have one thing going for him that no other horse has, a win over the track at Pimlico. But it was in a six-horse field against much softer competition. Most years there is one local horse with a win or two at Pimlico that runs in the Preakness and most years that horse fails to hit the board. Then there is Tale of Verve, a horse with one career victory against maidens in his last start. The connections must be high on him because they tried to get him into the derby, and I’m sure they know the horse better than me, but I just don’t see it. He has run against much weaker fields and only managed to win one race, maybe he turned a corner, but this race looks to be too much too soon. Finally there is Mr. Z, beaten by American Pharoah by over eight lengths in the Arkansas Derby and by fifteen lengths in the Kentucky Derby. His owner was adamant that he would not run in the Preakness, but his trainer seemed set on running. The horse was sold a few days ago and now the new owners are running him in the Preakness. I’m sure there’s an interesting story or two behind the scenes there. All I know is that Mr. Z would have to turn things around dramatically to be a factor in this race and I just don’t see it happening.

There is a strong case to be made for Dortmund, with a shorter distance and smaller field he can make the lead and be strong enough to hold off challenges from American Pharoah and Firing Line. But for me, it’s a two horse race. Firing Line and American Pharoah looked like the two best horses down the home stretch of the derby and I’ll be surprised if one of them doesn’t take the Preakness. I would assume that the top three in the derby will be the top three in the Preakness, but experience has taught me that horse races are rarely that easy to predict. One of the top three derby finishers may easily fail to hit the board and a horse that hasn’t shown his true talent may step up and grab a piece of the exacta or trifecta.

I will bet $20 total on American Pharoah and Firing Line to be the top two finishers, first with a $4 exacta box and then with a $1 superfecta bet with American Pharoah and Firing Line in the top two spots and Dortmund, Danzig Moon and Divining Rod in the 3rd and 4th spots. The exacta will cost $8 and the superfecta will cost $12. Then I will bet $20 to place on Firing Line because he has never finished worse than second and that might pay better than a win bet on American Pharoah. But these bets are minor compared to the one my buddy, Jack, will be placing at the track. He won a $25,000 win bet on the Preakness in an online contest. If he picks, the winner, he keeps the cash, if not, he gets nothing. He’s been leaning towards American Pharoah but also giving Firing Line a long look. The post positions favor Firing Line but how can you bet against American Pharoah when he hasn’t lost all year? If I were him I’d probably bet the 25 grand on American Pharoah and then bet my own cash on Firing Line. But I know I would go back and forth in my mind non-stop until I placed the bet. I’m sure Jack will do the same. Next week I will recap the race and let you know who Jack bet and how it turned out. If you are playing the races, good luck and remember, the less you bet, the more you lose, when you win.