ALLEN PARK -- The Detroit Lions haven't won a division title since they took the old NFC Central in 1993. And it's probably not going to happen this year, either.

Football Outsiders, an advanced analytics site, has pegged Detroit's chances of winning the NFC North at 15.7 percent. Minnesota (8-2) is the runaway favorite at 83.4 percent, while Green Bay (5-5) somehow still clings to a 1 percent chance despite losing four of their last five games (not to mention their quarterback).

Of course, the Lions (6-4) could make things really interesting by knocking off Minnesota in their divisional showdown Thursday at Ford Field. The Vikings have won six straight to open a two-game lead, but Detroit already has a win in hand in the series.

With another win, the Lions would trim the lead to one with five to go. They'd hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, too, while also facing the easier schedule. They still have road trips to face Baltimore, Tampa and Cincinnati, plus home games against Chicago and Green Bay. None of those teams has a winning record.

The Vikings, meantime, head to Detroit, Atlanta and Carolina the next three weeks in a row. And after hosting Cincinnati, they are back on the road in Green Bay before wrapping up the season against Chicago.

Even if the Lions can't catch Minnesota, their chances of making the postseason are still 49.4 percent according to Football Outsiders. That's sixth best in the NFC.

Here are their chances by seed:

1: 0.1 percent

2: 0.9 percent

3: 7.3 percent

4: 7.4 percent

5: 10.5 percent

6: 23.2 percent

Out: 50.6 percent