But Hannity's endorsement is no guarantee of victory. In fact, it might be more like a kiss of death.

Just last week, Hannity's pick to replace Attorney General Jeff Sessions in the Senate, Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), finished third in a GOP primary contest and was eliminated from contention.

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In April, Hannity backed tea party favorite Amy Kremer in a special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District but couldn't help her win even 1 percent of the vote in an open primary.

Last year, Hannity got behind Republican Wendy Long's bid to unseat Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.). Schumer won by 44 points and then was elected minority leader by his peers. Long actually fared slightly worse than she did the last time Hannity endorsed her, in a 2012 Senate race, when she lost by 43 points to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)

When Saxby Chambliss announced his retirement in 2014, Hannity endorsed Jack Kingston, who narrowly lost a Republican primary runoff to David Perdue, now Georgia's junior senator.

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Hannity has backed winners, too, such as Claudia Tenney, who beat two other Republicans in a congressional primary last year and now represents New York's 22nd District. (Hannity previously endorsed Tenney in an unsuccessful run against Republican incumbent Richard L. Hanna in 2014.) He also endorsed Barbara Comstock two weeks before a Republican congressional primary in Virginia's 10th District in 2014. Comstock won handily, then beat Democrat John Foust in the general election and was reelected last fall.

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It is worth noting that Hannity is sometimes willing to go out on a limb for candidates he likes. He surely knew that Long had no shot against Schumer, for example, yet still threw his name behind her. If Hannity were concerned only about his personal scoreboard, he could simply jump on the bandwagons of heavy favorites.

In some cases, Hannity might give an endorsement just to make a statement. Backing Brooks in Alabama, for instance, appeared to be a shot at the Republican establishment, which favored incumbent Sen. Luther Strange. In similar fashion, Hannity toyed with the idea of endorsing a primary challenger to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), Paul Nehlen, last year.

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Hannity's endorsement of Ward has the same feel. Flake is the establishment candidate and a critic of President Trump, whom Hannity passionately supports. Backing Ward is a way to tweak GOP leaders and stand up for Trump at the same time; it is not necessarily a sign that Hannity believes she can win and is certainly not a predictor of success.

In fact, the conservative RedState blog has declared Aug. 23 “the day Kelli Ward lost her Senate race” because it is the day she picked up Hannity's endorsement.