George Schroeder

USA TODAY Sports

GRAPEVINE, Texas — If the season had ended last weekend, the College Football Playoff field would have a decidedly Southern flavor. But after the unveiling Tuesday of the selection committee's initial Top 25 — your first (not final) four are Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Ole Miss, followed closely by Oregon and Alabama — committee chairman Jeff Long called the process "extremely difficult," and kept returning to a theme:

"The bottom line," Long said, "is it's early, it's close, and it's going to change as we move forward."

Over the course of about 12 hours Monday and Tuesday at the Gaylord Texan Resort, the selection committee took a deep dive into the season so far. Long said the "good, solid football discussions" included plenty of conversations about how games were won and lost, including specific instances.

"It was intense," Long said. "It was very serious, and I think every person in that room understands the weight of our decision — especially as we get closer to that weekend of Dec. 6 and 7 and the ultimate decision on Dec. 7."

The committee will update its rankings each week from now until the final rankings, which will set the playoff field and the four other "New Year's Six" bowls. Long said the committee will start from scratch each week, and said he expects something approaching volatility.

"We expect our rankings to change over the next six weeks," Long said. "One week's rankings won't influence the next week's rankings."

Six of the current top 10 teams will play at least one game against another current top 10 team. That begins Saturday, when No. 3 Auburn travels to No. 4 Ole Miss.

"There's a lot more great football to be played," Long said. "A lot more great wins, a lot more difficult losses."

Although Long made a point several times that the committee did not consider conference affiliations, he also acknowledged that almost everyone else is talking about the SEC's dominance atop the committee's poll — as well as in the Amway Coaches and Associated Press polls.

"We didn't look at it as a conference issue," Long said. "We don't. We compared those teams against each other, within their conference and outside their conference. There's a lot of talk about conference. We understand that. But in the committee room it's really not a conference debate. It's a team vs. who-they-played-and-won-and-lost (against)."

Long called the separation between Nos. 3-6 (Ole Miss, Oregon and Alabama) "paper-thin."

And it was apparent the committee considered head-to-head results to be significant in some cases — Ole Miss, coming off a loss at LSU, ranked ahead of Alabama, which the Rebels beat Oct. 4 — but perhaps not as important in others. No. 5 Oregon (7-1) was ranked well ahead of No. 12 Arizona (6-1), despite the Wildcats' road win over the Ducks on Oct. 2. Long said the Ducks had two significant wins, over Michigan State and UCLA, which were enough to outweigh Arizona's win.

"While they did have that win, the rest of the body of (Arizona's) work was not at strong," he said. "So at this point in time — and I'll keep emphasizing, at this point in time — we believed Oregon was deserving of that No. 5 ranking."

Long sounded a similar theme in regard to the ranking of No. 7 TCU ahead of No. 13 Baylor, despite Baylor's 61-58 win over the Horned Frogs.

Notre Dame is ranked No. 10 despite a 6-1 record with a close, somewhat controversial loss at No. 2 Florida State. Long suggested the committee didn't think much of the remainder of Notre Dame's body of work so far.

"If you look at their résumé, they have a close loss at Florida State," he said. "It was a loss, a close one."

The committee did not include unbeaten Marshall in its initial Top 25. The Conference USA school, which has mounted a P.R. push for playoff consideration but has a strength of schedule rating of No. 147 according to Jeff Sagarin, wouldn't even be included in a New Year's Six bowl if the season ended today. East Carolina (6-1) at No. 23, from the American Athletic Conference, is the highest-ranked team from a Group of Five conference, and would get the automatic berth.

Long said the committee "had a lot of consideration of Marshall."

"Obviously, they are 8-0," he said. "But as we looked at them, we compared their schedule — who they played to this point — and compared them against others. We did not think it was worthy of being placed in the Top 25 at this time."

As an example of the kinds of discussions among the committee members, Long related an instance in which former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wondered why a team — Long didn't identify the specific team — rushed three defensive players and dropped eight players into coverage during a critical situation.

"We had a lot of serious debate," Long said. "One of the committee members that others discuss often (referring to Rice) was debating with a coach about that process. And she also did mention the rolled-up corner and an interception."

In discussing how the committee's thinking would change over the next six weeks, Long made a point to mention conference championships, which are among five "principles" to be used by the committee, according to the official protocol, to distinguish "among otherwise comparable teams." The other principles include strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparative outcomes of common opponents and factors like injuries.

For example, Long said the committee considered attrition along Oregon's offensive line in the Ducks' loss to Arizona.

With all but one of the principles, there already are data points to consider.

But with the possible exception of the Big 12, which does not play a conference championship game, the Power Five conference champions won't be determined until the final weekend. Thus, it's possible the committee's rankings could undergo a shakeup in the final poll. That depends in part upon the weight each member puts on the value of conference titles.

Until then?

"You're only operating on 80% of the (principles)," said Bill Hancock, the College Football Playoff's executive director. "Not having the conference championships (achieved yet) is significant."

Said Long: "We'll just have to look for that on Dec. 6 and 7 and factor that in. It will be determined that weekend, and we'll have to apply that."

In some ways, it might get a little bit easier for the committee in the next few weeks. Along with unbeatens Mississippi State and Florida State, the committee had to sift through 15 one-loss teams from Power Five conferences.

"The difference between many of them is very slight," Long said.

Throughout the afternoon, committee members filtered through the Texan's massive lobby, headed for flights home. They won't be gone for long, though. On her way out, Rice paused to say it was an exciting moment in college football, and then added:

"See you here next week."