Structure and prevalence of anti-Walloon and anti-immigrant attitudes

Before turning to the measurement models, we inspect the frequency distributions of the items measuring anti-Walloon and anti-immigrant attitudes. Table 1 shows that anti-Walloon opinions are prevalent among a sizeable group of the Flemish citizens. As expected, competition for the resources of the welfare state is found to be the most widespread source of perceived threat. More than 50% of the Flemish voters (strongly) agree that “the Walloons take advantage of our social security system”. Cultural threat perceptions are less outspoken: only 19% disagrees with the statement that Francophone culture is an enrichment (and thus no threat) for society. However, when the Brussels periphery is mentioned, the perceived Francophone threat increases to 41%. The finding that cultural threat perceptions are less pronounced than fear for competition over welfare resources is consistent with the observation that, apart from the Brussels region, Flemings and Francophones occupy separate cultural spaces but share a single socio-economic space in terms of the federal welfare state. Regarding the statement that the Belgian government treats Walloons preferentially over Flemings, the Flemish public opinion is divided. Almost equal shares of the population (strongly) agree with this statement, are in (strong) disagreement, or have no outspoken opinion on the matter. Finally, regarding negative stereotypes about Walloons, only 10% perceives Walloons as not trustworthy, while 22% endorses the statement that Walloons are lazy.

The frequency distributions for the anti-immigrant items generally show that Flemings harbour more negative attitudes towards immigrants than towards Walloons, but at the same time the differences are not overwhelming. Mentioning immigrants instead of Walloons typically increases agreement with negatively worded items by 10 percentage points. Similar as for anti-Walloon prejudice, social security threat seems to be the most salient source of anti-immigrant prejudice with 62% expressing fear that immigrants take advantage of the welfare state. Immigrants also elicit stronger cultural threat perceptions than Walloons: 52% sees immigrants as a “threat to our culture and customs”, while only 31% believes that cultural diversity enriches society. The differences between attitudes towards immigrants and Walloons are more distinct for the items on distrust and treatment by the government. Respectively 30% and 47% of the respondents (strongly) agree with the statement that immigrants are generally not trustworthy and are given preferential treatment respectively, which is markedly higher than similar evaluations of Walloons (10% and 33% respectively). Concerning the stereotype of lacking work ethic, finally, both target groups are relatively close in the eye of the Flemish citizen: 28% feels that immigrants are lazy.

Although these frequency distributions are instructive, a more in-depth analysis of the differences in prevalence and structure of anti-Walloon and anti-immigration attitudes requires a latent variable approach. Table 2 presents the fit indices for a series of nested CFA models implying various degrees of measurement invariance. Model 1 contains a single latent factor on which all the anti-Walloon and the anti-immigrant items load. This model does not provide an adequate description of the observed data: RMSEA is considerably larger than 0.06, and CFI and TLI are below 0.90. Clearly, Flemish attitudes towards Walloons and immigrants are not reducible to a single dimension.

Chi2 Df RMSEA CFI TLI SRMR M1 1 factor 535.8 54 0.116 0.846 0.811 0.073 M2 2 factors – no error correlations 171.3 53 0.058 0.962 0.953 0.035 M3 2 factors + error corr. – Equal configuration 98.5 47 0.041 0.983 0.977 0.027 M4a 2 factors + error corr. – Equal factor loadings 139.7 52 0.051 0.972 0.964 0.057 M4b 2 factors + error corr. – Partially equal factor loadings 117.0 50 0.045 0.979 0.972 0.042 M5a 2 factors + error corr. – Equal intercepts 224.0 53 0.070 0.945 0.932 0.050 M5b 2 factors + error corr. – Partially equal intercepts 125.3 52 0.046 0.976 0.970 0.045

Specifying a separate anti-Walloon and anti-immigrant factor improves model fit dramatically (Model 2; ΔChi2 = 364.4; ΔDf = 1; p < .0001).3 Based on the modification indices, we added error covariances between the matched items to this two-factor model to take the similarity in question wording into account (see Figure 1), resulting in a satisfactory model fit (see Model 3 in Table 2). Apart from the two items measuring perceptions of being threatened by Francophone culture (see below for further explanation), all standardized factor loadings are larger than .60, which evidences that the items are sufficiently reliable and valid indicators of anti-Walloon and anti-immigrant attitudes.

We enhance the comparison of anti-Walloon and anti-immigration attitudes further by evaluating to what extent the measurement parameters are equal for both instruments. In a first step, we test whether item pairs have equal factor loadings. This equality of factor loadings implies that the various indicators -each referring to specific sources of threat or stereotypes- are to the same extent related to the two forms of prejudice. In other words, it evaluates whether or not anti-Walloon and anti-immigrant attitudes are structured along the same lines. Pair-wise equality constraints on the factor loadings (see Model 4a) decrease model fit substantially. Compared to Model 3, the chi-square value has increased significantly (ΔChi2 = 41.2; ΔDf = 5; p < .001), and RMSEA, CFI and TLI have become substantially worse. The modification indices point out that the misfit is primarily located in the two item pairs referring to cultural threat (Q113_3 & Q68_4; Q113_4 & Q68_5). Freeing up these two problematic equality constraints (Model 4b) improves model fit again almost up to the level of the unconstrained model. In case of the anti-Walloon factor, the loadings are substantially smaller than for the anti-immigrant factor. This means that Flemings’ perceptions of being culturally threatened are less relevant for the development of anti-Walloon attitudes than for anti-immigrant sentiment, confirming hypothesis 1b (based on the DT model), and rejecting hypothesis 1a (based on the GFE approach).

Finally, we also impose equality constraints on the intercepts of the item pairs.4 Equality of intercepts means that, conditional on the mean of the latent factor, the two items have the same expected value and that the items are unbiased with respect to the target group mentioned. In other words, a respondent who holds the same level of prejudice against Walloons and immigrants is expected to give the same response to a particular item. Implementing pair-wise equality constraints on the intercepts leads to a sharp decrease in model fit (Model 5a), but again the misfit is highly concentrated. Removing the equality constraint on the item pair measuring intergroup trust (Q113_1 & Q68_1) eliminates the lions’ share of the misfit that was induced by setting intercepts equal (see Model 5b). The distrust item has a considerably lower intercept when the Walloons are mentioned instead of immigrants. Flemish respondents who otherwise hold similar levels of prejudice against both out-groups nevertheless express lower levels of distrust towards Walloons than towards immigrants. Even among persons with an anti-Walloon disposition, distrust towards Walloons is relatively low.

This final model (Model 5b) has a satisfactory fit. Compared to Model 3, Model 5b does have a significantly higher chi-square value (ΔChi2 = 26.8; ΔDf = 5; p < .001). According to prevailing guidelines (Cheung & Rensvold, 2002), however, the alternative fit indices of Model 5b are only marginally lower than those of Model 3, and one can conclude that the remaining constraints on factor loadings and intercepts are supported by the data. Although some differences in factor loadings and intercepts are detected, three item pairs have completely invariant measurement parameters. This partial scalar equivalence (Byrne, Shavelson & Muthén, 1989) guarantees valid comparisons of anti-Walloon and anti-immigration attitudes at the level of the latent variables, both in terms of levels (means) as well as relation to other variables.

The parameter estimates for Model 5b (presented in Table 3) reveal a nuanced picture about the similarities and differences between both forms of prejudice. On the one hand, although we find two separate factors, anti-Walloon and anti-immigrant attitudes correlate very strongly (0.65). Clearly, negative attitudes towards Walloons and immigrants are distinct but closely connected phenomena. On the other hand, the two latent variables show some marked differences. First, the anti-Walloon factor has a lower latent mean (–0.20) than the anti-immigrant factor (this mean is fixed at 0 for reasons of model identification, and thus serves as reference point). The finding that anti-Walloon prejudice is lower compared to anti-immigrant prejudice confirms hypothesis 2. This difference is not only statistically significant, but also substantively relevant – it equals roughly one third of a standard deviation. Second, also the amount of variation differs clearly between the latent constructs. The anti-immigrant factor has a larger variance than the anti-Walloon factor (0.50 vs. 0.30). This indicates that the Flemish stands are more divided concerning the contentious issue of the presence of immigrants, while there is a somewhat more agreement regarding the regional/linguistic cleavage.