This season’s special congressional elections are being heralded as a test of whether newly energized Democrats will fare better with an unpopular Republican president.

So far, the Democrats are passing the test.

On Tuesday, Republicans won an unexpectedly close race in Kansas’ Fourth Congressional District. The Republican Ron Estes won by seven points over James Thompson, even though President Trump won the district by 27 points in November. No Democrat holds a House seat as Republican as this one, so it’s startling that the seat was even competitive.

In general, it’s a mistake to read too much into a single special election. They are more prone to odd results. That’s because there’s less time for recruitment, fund-raising or even opposition research. There isn’t a national campaign going on at the same time. The turnout is often low and variable.

But the Kansas result is not a great sign for the Republicans, and it’s hard to dismiss.

Ultimately, special elections are still elections. They reflect the national political environment in nearly the same way as regularly scheduled contests. There just happen to be a few more outlying results.