On the second day of this new decade, President Trump ordered an airstrike on a major international airport in Baghdad, killing high-profile Iranian military commander General Qassim Suleimani. This general was the head of the secretive Quds Force and commanded Iran’s military forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and many other countries in the Middle East. A close adviser to Suleimani and the deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Units, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, also died in the airstrike along with three other people. In a statement from January 2nd, the U.S. Defense Department said, “This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans,” and “The United States will continue to take all necessary action to protect our people and our interests wherever they are around the world.”

President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks on the death of Soleimani at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, January 3, 2010, in Palm Beach, Florida. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

What Built Up to the Assassination?

Last week, a militia called Katib-Hezbollah used missiles to attack a United States compound, killing a U.S. contractor and wounding American and Iraqi soldiers. In retaliation to that, the United States military used drones to attack arms depots of the Katib-Hezbollah, killing 25 Hezbollah fighters in the process as well as many Iraqi citizens. Due to the death of Iraqi citizens on Iraqi soil, millions of protestors stormed the US embassy in Baghdad. This led to the US military to airlift in 100 Marines and send a battalion of 750 soldiers from an infantry battalion of the 82nd Airborne Division to the handle this Middle East uprising. Tensions between Iran and the United States were already high, and this assassination will only serve to exacerbate them. Due to the aggressive and increasing nature of the attack, Iran will have no choice but to retaliate, giving the United States military justification to further increased its presence in the Middle East.

Iran’s government immediately responded in an aggressive manner, promising, “The flag of General Soleimani in defense of the country’s territorial integrity and the fight against terrorism and extremism in the region will be raised, and the path of resistance to US excesses will continue. The great nation of Iran will take revenge for this heinous crime.” Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister of Iran, called the U.S. strike “An act of state terrorism and a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty.”

The US' act of international terrorism, targeting & assassinating General Soleimani—THE most effective force fighting Daesh (ISIS), Al Nusrah, Al Qaeda et al—is extremely dangerous & a foolish escalation.



The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism. — Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 3, 2020

President Trump has threatened to attack 52 sites in Iran if retaliation occurs. US and Israeli flags have been burnt in Tehran. NATO has suspended training missions in Iraq, the American government urged citizens to leave Iraq, Iraqi militias have used rockets and missiles against US forces and bases, and the US is sending 3000 more troops to the Middle East. The Ayatollah has instituted a three-day mourning period across the country of Iran, and it is possible Russia may covertly support Iran. Nations such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Jordan, which share borders with Iran or Iraq, are on high alert. President Trump has resumed a military training program with Pakistan today to strengthen cooperation between them in case Pakistani support for the United States is required in the coming months.

Who was Qasim Suleimani?

The most important thing to keep in mind is that Suleimani was not a terrorist or an immediate threat to the United States in the way Osama bin Laden was. Qasim Suleimani was a high-ranking military official, such as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. General Qasim Suleimani was highly decorated and a key player in Middle Eastern politics. In a message to General Petraeus, he once wrote, “General Petraeus, you should be aware that I, Qassem Soleimani, control Iran’s policy for Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan.” He fought in the Iran-Iraq War, destroyed drug gangs in Iran and parts of Afghanistan, oversaw Iranian military efforts combatting the Taliban, partnered with the Northern Alliance to combat terrorism in the region, and captured key members of Al-Qaeda after 9/11. Suleimani later became the commander of the elite Quds Force by 1998. When tensions between the Taliban and Iran rose after the Taliban attacked Shia Muslims in Afghanistan, it was Suleimani who suggested throwing support to the Northern Alliance and using them as a proxy instead of engaging in all-out warfare.

Source: The Counter Terrorism Center, Graphic by Larisa Baste

Initial Efforts between Iran and America

After 9/11, Soleimani sought to defeat the Taliban by using a method of cooperating with the United States. “Early in the war, he directed Iranian diplomats to share intelligence on Taliban military positions with their U.S. counterparts.” At the highest political levels, Suleimani was the one who was proposing rethinking the relationship they had with the country known as the ‘Great Satan’. However, in 2002, in his State of the Union address, George W. Bush addressed Iran as a ‘nuclear proliferator’, ‘an exporter of terrorism’, a ‘repressive state,’ and part of an ‘Axis of Evil.’ Having his country branded with these labels, despite the unprecedented levels of cooperation he had started, angered Suleimani. This caused him to cancel future meetings with the US.

Source: Wikipedia

Working with the US

The US invasion of Iraq leads to Syria developing closer ties to the Islamic Republic of Iran, as they realized that once the US completed the toppling of the regime in Iraq, it could shift its focus to the rest of the Middle East. “To damage the U.S. occupation, Soleimani helped Syrian intelligence create pipelines for funneling jihadis into Iraq. Once there, the jihadis attacked U.S. forces, often using roadside bombs supplied by Soleimani’s Quds Force and factories inside Iran.” Suleimani also used Shia militias as proxies for attacking the US and coalition troops, and in 2006, he supervised Hezbollah in Lebanon in its war with Israel, during which time coalition deaths in Iraq went down drastically. “Upon his return from Lebanon, Soleimani wrote to U.S. commanders, “I hope you have been enjoying the peace and quiet in Baghdad. I’ve been busy in Beirut!”

When the government in Iraq was reestablished in 2005, Suleimani began to exert his influence in the country’s politics through his militias. For example, one of his proxies, the Badr Organization, became, in effect, an arm of the Iraqi state under the new government while also joining as part of the interior and transport ministries. Suleimani had a history with the President of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, who benefited from the help that the Revolutionary Guard and the CIA provided in the 1990s when he led Kurdish resistance against Saddam Hussein. A reporter from The New Yorker quoted an intelligence officer as saying that he had never seen Talabani “So deferential to anyone. He was terrified [of Suleimani].”

Suleimani was also instrumental in dismantling the Islamic State. In 2011, he ordered militias to defend the Assad regime when civil war broke out in Syria. When the Islamic State began to take territory in Iraq, Suleimani ordered those militias into Iraq to defend the government, and they organized themselves into the Popular Mobilization Forces or the PMF. Suleimani’s forces benefited from US aid to Iraqi troops, and they were pivotal to the retaking of Tikrit in early 2015, during which Suleimani himself was frequently pictured on the frontlines. After the Islamic State was defeated, the PMF integrated itself into the power structure of Iraq’s government with the backing of Prime Minister Abadi. Now that Suleimani is no longer there, the power Iran had in Iraq through the PMF will be lessened.

Suleimani was a unifying force for Shia forces in the Middle East. He was responsible for the creation of the ‘Axis of Resistance’, which is a sphere of influence extending from the Gulf of Oman to the Mediterranean Sea, crossing Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It is an alliance between Iran, Syria, the PMF in Iraq, and Hezbollah, and its main purpose is to lessen Western influence in the region while strengthening each other with shared support. It also tries to oppose the Saudi-led coalition of Sunni states in the Middle East, which is known as the Gulf Cooperation Council. Now that the main figurehead of the Axis of Resistance is dead, Saudi Arabia’s influence and, by proxy, America’s influence in the region will increase. For example, Suleimani’s militias were the main opposing force in Saudi Arabia’s air campaign in Yemen. Before his death, Iran, fortified by the support of the Axis, began attacking US oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities and even shot down a US drone, but there were no casualties. The US used these acts of aggression as justification for Suleimani’s death.

This is the funeral procession of Qassem #Soleimani today in Ahvaz, #Iran.



Absolutely massive crowd, with millions of Iranians attending.



Truly one of the most incredible things I’ve ever seen.pic.twitter.com/xfEuCSSNJ9 — Sarah Abdallah (@sahouraxo) January 5, 2020

Regional Impacts

All of the above information makes one point clear: Suleimani was a major figure in the Middle East, and his death will lead to a deep shifting of the balance of power in the region, as well as the destabilization of many factions which relied on his leadership in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. Suleimani was the one who would have to lead the retaliatory measures if Iran wanted to harm the United States, and without him, Iran’s armies are rudderless. That doesn’t mean that there is no danger. He could be a unifying figure in death more than he ever was in life, as it could stoke the fires of anti-Americanism and embolden militias such as the PMF and Hezbollah to approach military escalation.

Impact on the 2020 US Election

Prophecies of war have an important impact on the politics of the United States. 2020 is an election year, these next few months will shape public opinion and could change the outcome of the election. Multiple protests have broken out in cities across the US, expressing anti-war sentiments. By assassinating what the government perceives to be a potential threat to the United States, President Trump has given some voters the impression that he is tough on terrorism overseas, and not afraid to tackle it head-on. However, this impression is only skin-deep. There are other citizens that believe the US would be able to crush Iran if they attempt to take revenge, but they forget that these militias of Suleimani’s are extremely skilled in asymmetric warfare.

The United States can be critically harmed if they allow themselves to get bogged down in another drawn-out conflict with these militias. A key part of the Shia Muslim philosophy is defending your brother. That is why Suleimani sent forces to defend Assad during the civil war, and to defend Prime Minister Abadi in Iraq when the Islamic state reared its head.

This military philosophy is perhaps most strongly symbolized by the Red Flag of Holy Jihad or the Red Flag of Hussein. It was hoisted over the Holy Dome of Jamkaran Mosque in Qom, where, in Shia tradition, the 12th Imam is predicted to return. It is a flag indicating that Iran is mobilizing its entire society towards a conflict never before seen. Bear in mind that this flag was not unfurled even during the Iran-Iraq war. It marks Suleimani as a Shahid, which is a person who sacrifices his life for the Islamic cause–a Martyr. No one can predict the chaos which is to ensue. Despite what you think of Suleimani, the impact ultimately is placed on the civilians of the Middle East, who will continue to be caught in the crossfire of these major international interests jockeying one another for power.

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