Is Trump the new Bush? Pelosi sees a way forward for Democrats

U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks to the San Francisco Chronicle Editorial Board on Monday, July 10, 2017. U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks to the San Francisco Chronicle Editorial Board on Monday, July 10, 2017. Photo: Scott Strazzante, The Chronicle Photo: Scott Strazzante, The Chronicle Image 1 of / 3 Caption Close Is Trump the new Bush? Pelosi sees a way forward for Democrats 1 / 3 Back to Gallery

Republicans may hold the legislative power in Washington, but House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco sees a glimmer of hope for reversing that: a vulnerability in the GOP that reminds her of the unwinding of President George W. Bush’s presidency — and she said Monday that Democrats will start rolling out plans in the next week to exploit it.

During a meeting Monday with The Chronicle’s editorial board, Pelosi likened the current political moment to early 2005, when Bush, fresh off of his re-election win, had a 57 percent approval rating in the Gallup Poll and Republicans held majorities in the Senate and House. But by the end of that year, Bush — thanks to his mishandling of Hurricane Katrina and his unpopular plan to privatize Social Security — was polling in the low 40s.

But Bush’s tumble wasn’t entirely the result of self-inflicted wounds — Democrats were prepared to pounce. After the 2004 election beatdown of Democrats, Pelosi consulted with private-sector merchandising experts, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, asking, “Can you help brand us?” She said Jobs replied, “You can’t brand yourself unless you know who you are. I’m not here to a give you a brand or a slogan.”

So, much like they did then, Pelosi said that over the past several months Democrats have been methodically surveying Americans to identify the values that are the core of the party and better package them in a coherent message. Last week, party officials sent out an email fundraising pitch to supporters, asking which sticker they should print. One said, “Democrats 2018: I mean, have you seen the other guys?”

The big difference this time around is that while the post-2004 election research effort took a year, Pelosi said “this time we have to do it faster because everybody is in a hurry, communication is different.”

Pelosi declined to offer specifics about the new messaging, except that it would be slowly rolled out over the next few months. She said much of it is being coordinated by a diverse group of three House members representing different parts of the party’s base, including a segment some critics say Democrats have lost touch with: rural voters.

One of the messaging coordinators is Rep. Cheri Bustos, who represents a rural Illinois district. The others are Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, of New York, who is African American, and Rep. David Cicilline, of Rhode Island, who is co-chairman of the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus and vice chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Much of the new messaging will be aimed at voters who supported Trump and may be having second thoughts.

“What we’ll be talking about next week is their financial stability in terms of jobs and reducing costs to them in their lives,” Pelosi said. “It’s not just blue collar, it’s a rural America type of thing.”

It’s key for Democrats to explain what they’re about instead of merely reacting to Trump, she said.

Pelosi said that even though the president is “self immolating, give Trump credit for one thing: He manages all the time, successfully, for us to be talking about him.” While Trump enjoys a GOP majority in Congress, his approval rating is only 40 percent, far below Bush’s at the start of his second term.

“It’s a technique of an authoritarian. No matter what it is — it could be bad — but we’re talking about him, and we’re not talking about who bailed out the auto industry,” she said, referring to President Barack Obama’s successful effort to revive the industry with the help of a Democratic-led Congress.

“That’s what Hillary Clinton was falling prey to” during the presidential campaign, Pelosi said. “Her people were talking about him. Don’t talk about him. Talk about you. What you’re going to do for them.”

During the 90-minute meeting, Pelosi pushed back on some of the criticism that has come her way in recent weeks, particularly after Democrats lost four House special elections, albeit all in solidly Republican districts where there was little chance of winning. In a special-election race in suburban Atlanta last month where a Democrat lost, conservative groups broadcast ads tying Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff to Pelosi, including one that was filmed in San Francisco.

“Do you think we lost those races because of me?” Pelosi asked rhetorically.

Robert Cahaly, pollster and senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, which did independent polling in the campaign, agreed that Pelosi wasn’t an important factor in the Georgia race.

“It’s a nice thing for pundits to talk about,” Cahaly said, “but it wasn’t a real mover.”

Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer. Email: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli