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Re: [OS] RUSSIA - Prokhorov vs Surkov: Who Has More Resources?

Released on 2013-03-11 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 2881142 Date 2011-09-17 19:26:53 From goodrich@stratfor.com To analysts@stratfor.com

Re: [OS] RUSSIA - Prokhorov vs Surkov: Who Has More Resources?





This article is retarded. NG is getting to be more like the Inquirer

recently.

Prok needs to be careful. He is pissing off ppl in the Kremlin in ways

that no one has in years. It is good for domestic political fodder though

as it turns the focus from the tandem in the weeks prior to the

conference.

Oh, & yes, Marc, Surkov did make the strike on his own family--- though

they were the Dudayevs afterall, so not keepers unless you want to be

hunted for the rest of your life.

On 9/17/11 10:27 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:



Didn't Surkov order a MiG strike on his own family?



Sent from my iPhone

On Sep 17, 2011, at 10:05, Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com> wrote:



----------------------------------------------------------------------



From: nobody@stratfor.com

To: translations@stratfor.com

Sent: Saturday, September 17, 2011 5:46:07 AM

Subject: US/RUSSIA/OMAN/ROK - Russian tycoon to settle scores with

president's chief of staff - paper



Russian tycoon to settle scores with president's chief of staff - paper



Text of report by the website of heavyweight Russian newspaper

Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 13 September



[Report by Roman Dobrokhotov: "Alla Pugacheva as a Mirror of the Russian

Revolution - unexpected enemies of Vladislav Surkov have appeared"]



Prokhorov vs Surkov: Who Has More Resources?



At first the journalists were openly bored and it was not even clear

that it was worth coming to the congress when it was already known that

the raiders led by master of the big lie Bogdanov were assembling in a

different building, that is to say, there would be no fight. What is

more, the journalists - being acid-tongued and cynical - were exchanging

sarcastic comments as they observed how the paparazzi crowded around

Alla Pugacheva, how the Rolex on Royzman's wrist sparkled, and how

everyone gave Prokhorov a standing ovation when he entered the hall. But

everything changed in a flash, the moment that Mikhail Prokhorov spoke

the two secret words: Vladislav Surkov.



TV channel News-24 had stopped its direct broadcast of the congress

earlier, probably about an hour before (but really, they were not afraid

to show the Yabloko Party). For some reason the information agencies

describing the action did not mention the name Surkov. But in fact,

Prokhorov spoke of nothing but him: "The main task is the resignation of

the puppet master who privatized political space, and we will do it."

The mood of the journalists changed instantly.



The last time the richest man in Russia permitted himself to openly

challenge the government he quickly ceased to be the richest man and

before long was completely gone, to Krasnokamensk to sew mittens. But

not even Khodorkovskiy spoke as candidly and bitterly, so the impact of

Prokhorov's words was stunning. The air was charged with crazy energy.

The support group spoke, each one more animated than the others. Alla

Pugacheva said that she had never been interested in politics, but here

suddenly she saw a real man, determined and free-thinking. In the

context of the general uplift of sprits even these words were believed.

Well, so be it, Alla Borisovna searched and searched for a free-thinking

man, she searched and searched and, behold, she found him.



Aleksandr Lyubimov took the floor. He said it was as if he had gone back

25 years to the days of the programme "Vzglyad" [View]. The situation,

he said, was about the same. And everyone in the hall applauded. Well of

course, here Aleksandr Lyubimov was living peacefully, working as deputy

director of VGTRK [All-Russia State Television and Radio Company], a

life as sweet as fruit kefir, as Andrey Makarevich, who was attending

the same congress, might say (or sing), when suddenly it was September

2011 and censorship and dictatorship were on the rise in the country.

And here, of course, Lyubimov resigned himself and recalled his past

experience as a freedom fighter.



Of course Royzman talked too, and needless to say - about drugs. He also

got an ovation. Royzman has waged a long and successful fight against

drugs, practically everyone believes. Except for the experts in drug

studies. And especially at such a shining moment no one would recall his

criminal past, one instance of which, as the media write, was when the

young Royzman would ingratiate himself with women, win their trust, and

rob them. In any case that was long ago, and his slogan today is

"Strength is in the truth." Exactly the same slogan that Prokhorov later

took for himself.



But everything comes out in comparison. In the hall where Bogdanov and

comrades were holding their fake congress of imagined delegates sat

Shevchenko, Solovyev, Rudkovskaya, Friske, and Minayev. As they say,

feel the difference. Not so as to disappear completely, but all the same

there was a definite difference. And it is very strange that it was not

felt by, for example, the former SPS [Union of Rightist Forces] member

Boris Nadezhdin or the prominent political scientist and economist

Vladislav Inozemtsev, who had intruded into the ranks of the puppet

congress.



If you think about it, nothing extraordinary happened at all. Well yes,

the agreement between Prokhorov and Surkov was terminated. Judging by

the fact that in his speeches Prokhorov did not say a bad word about

Putin and Medvedev, he was hoping to the end that the tandem would

continue to talk with him. But that is unlikely - the Rossiya TV channel

has already broadcast its report, which says convincingly that Right

Cause unanimously expelled Prokhorov from its ranks, while the fallen

oligarch gathered his few supporters and before them acknowledged his

defeat (to show that there really were just a few supporters they showed

the hall at the Academy of Sciences during a break, when it was almost

empty.) In general, the divorce turned out to be scandalous and

unpleasant, as often happens with divorces that occur right after a high

profile wedding.



But then we remember that Andrey Illarionov also made some resounding

statements when he left his position and went into the opposition, as

did Kasyanov - and you know, their positions were more substantial than

Prokhorov's. Of course, none of them had so much money, and some

analysts - we will not point to Stanislav Belkovskiy - think that in

Russia today money decides everything. And so what will Prokhorov do

now? Bring a "maydan" [protest demonstration] of hundreds of thousands

of paid grannies to Moscow for money? Or immediately buy several

aircraft carriers from the United States? No matter what those Kremlin

political experts of all kinds may say, you cannot buy a revolution with

money. So it is much more likely that Prokhorov will be seen in London

somewhere around Chichvarkin, the former director of the Moscow branch

of Right Cause, or Berezovskiy, the founder of United Russia.



There is, it is true, one important detail that apparently is not being

given due significance at this point. Formerly from among public figures

one could expect to hear a phrase in the spirit of "Vladislav Yuryevich

has apparently gone out of his mind" from Basilashvili, say, or Boris

Strugatskiy. But not from Pugacheva. By the way, she related that at the

president's staff she was told frankly: "If you think that we did not

help you much in the past, well now we are going to hinder you." I would

like to see how they are going to hinder Alla Pugacheva. How they cut

her out of all broadcasts, forbid Komsomolskaya Pravda from mentioning

her new young spouses, or forbid other stars from talking with her. And

Aleksandr Lyubimov, Andrey Makarevich, and Leonid Yarmolnik, who came to

the congress - it is the same symptom.



The main question for a member of the intelligentsia in Russia today is

not "What is to be done?" or "Who is to blame?" The main question of

recent years is "Has it begun?" So Prokhorov's speech about Surkov is

not yet the beginning. But then, Pugacheva's speech means "It has

begun."



[Video link] Pugacheva supported Prokhorov. Full version of her speech

[not reproduced]



Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta website, Moscow, in Russian 13 Sep 11



BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol 170911 yk/osc



(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011



--

Lauren Goodrich

Senior Eurasia Analyst

STRATFOR

T: 512.744.4311

F: 512.744.4334

lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.com









