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Based on modelling conducted by Navius Research — a leading energy, technology and economic analysis firm — here are three things British Columbians need to know about LNG and the province’s climate change commitments:

1) It would be impossible to meet our carbon pollution reduction targets if the LNG plants that already have permits proceed as planned, as they don’t intend to use technologies and approaches that would adequately reduce carbon pollution.

2) If they did employ this technology, B.C. still couldn’t have anywhere close to the number of LNG facilities that have been proposed. At most, the province could have the equivalent of a single large LNG facility and a few other smaller facilities. These LNG projects would need to run almost entirely on electricity, instead of burning gas, and there would need to be a significant reduction of methane emissions from the gas production serving them.

3) Most importantly for the rest of B.C. businesses and citizens, in order to create “room” for significant amounts of new pollution from an LNG export industry, other industrial sectors and British Columbians would need to cut their pollution faster than would otherwise be the case. That’s a pretty big favour for the LNG industry — and the government — to ask, and one that needs to be transparently addressed.

Champions of LNG shrug off the increased carbon pollution that would accompany more fracked gas production in the northeast and LNG facilities on the northwest coast. They point out that B.C. gas could replace coal-fired power in its Asian destinations. While a recent study suggested this is a possibility, it also acknowledged the uncertainty in truly knowing what is being displaced by natural gas, noting that as wind and solar power costs continue to fall, LNG could increasingly be competing with renewable energy.