Finance from the Hive Mind Top Trends WRITTEN BY James Rosenblum

Greetings PucaTraders,

Every once in a while, I like to take a look at the top trades, particularly after a new set releases.

Here is the last one I did, after Dragons of Tarkir.

First, let's recap what went on in the last 30 days so we can put everything into context. We had the tail end of drafting Modern Masters 2015. People acquired cards from the set for their decks and wanted to finish up the sideboards and the cards not in the set. Then, we had the release of Magic: Origins, which brought some exciting cards to the table and reminded us about Standard once again. In the trades, we'll see a mix of interest in Standard and Modern.

Here are the top trades from the past 30 days:

Modern on the Rise

Let's analyze what's going on here. We have quite a diverse mix of cards. One trend that stands out to me is that people are building Modern decks.

First, we see that the Grixis Delver deck in Modern has been, judging from these trades, extremely popular. Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Delver of Secrets, Gurmag Angler, Kolaghan's Command, Remand, Thought Scour, Lightning Bolt, Rending Volley, Spell Pierce, and Gitaxian Probe are all in the deck, and all high up on the top traded list. It's as if three to four hundred people suddenly decided to build the deck, which very well may be the case. The deck really picked up in popularity after the printing of the Delve creatures, followed by Kolaghan's Command.

A few people decided that Affinity was the ways to go in Modern. At number 50, we see Etched Champion and Ensoul Artifact at number 23. Ensoul Artifact could also be a play at a Standard-viable artifact deck, along with the printing of Thopter Spy Network, Hangarback Walker, and others in Origins.

Infect creatures found their way onto the list. Noble Hierarch was reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, which brought the price of the deck down by maybe $120 or so, and we see Blighted Agent and Glistener Elf on the list at numbers 39 and 12. Gitaxian Probes, at number 1, also go in this decklist. Besides the Hierarchs and Inkmoth Nexuses, the deck is cheap to assemble.

Collected Company decks look like they are popular here as well. That makes me glad, as it is a deck that I champion, even though there was plenty of hate printed for it in the latest set. Collected Company is second on the list, and Chord of Calling and Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit also make it on. Kitchen Finks is nowhere on the list, but perhaps many people already had copies or acquired them a couple of years ago when it was printed as an uncommon in Modern Masters.

Ancient Stirrings is a versatile card that fits into Tron, Amulet Bloom combo, and the newly popular Lantern of Insight prison deck.

I attribute the interest in Modern partially to Modern PPTQ season, and partially to the printing of Modern Masters 2015 (and partially to the fact that people want a good investment in a fun format). Although I've stated on the record that I think the Modern Masters 2015 set was poorly executed, it did provide at least a few pieces for Modern, and people are filling in the gaps. It's just a shame that cards like Oblivion Stone had to spike in price because Wizards of the Coast put more bulk rares instead of more Modern staples in the set.

Magic: Origins

The second trend that stands out to me here is the boom of interest caused by Magic: Origins. As the set was spoiled, people rushed to get their hands on cards they thought would synergize with the new cards.

Day's Undoing

Take a look at Quicken at number 34. The belief was that this card would synergize well with Day's Undoing, allowing the caster to untap with a full grip of cards, possibly when the opponent was tapped out. Not a terrible plan, although I am not on board with it. I think that Day's Undoing is great and needs some synergy, but I'll be slightly surprised if Quicken works with it as well as people are betting. I will say that Quicken is an awesome card in general, and it deserves to be worth a few dollars. It may start to see greater play in Modern now that people have already invested.

Harbinger of the Tides

Master of Waves also strikes me as a card that follows on the heels of Harbinger of the Tides, a new card from Origins. Both of those cards are on the list, at 46 and 26, respectively.

Goblin Piledriver

Legion Loyalist at number 49 is a card that I think follows the reprint of Goblin Piledriver. With the two-drop Goblin legal for the first time in Modern, people were looking to pick up Legion Loyalist as a playable one-drop alongside it. I also see Obelisk of Urd at number 41 as a play on Goblins, or possibly as another attempt to make mono-black Humans/Warriors work in Standard before the key pieces rotate.

Lack of a One-Mana Mana Creature

Rattleclaw Mystic at number 17 is also a card I think people picked up after viewing the Origins spoilers. This one is a metagame call rather than a synergy call. Really notable in the spoilers was the lack of Elvish Mystic or Birds of Paradise as one-mana mana creatures. Instead, we have Rattleclaw Mystic as perhaps the best mana producer available after Sylvan Caryatid rotates. We may get a replacement, but for now, Rattleclaw Mystic may be all that we have for quality mana creatures.

Shaman of the Pack and the Elves

Shaman of the Pack comes directly from Magic: Origins, and boy, was it popular. This card is an uncommon worth $2 right out of the gates, and yet it traded like hotcakes. Were the buyers right, or were the sellers right? It's hard to say, although possibly both. $2 is high for an uncommon, but Stoke the Flames reached $4. But there is no way that Shaman of the Pack can be played in as many decks as Stoke the Flames. It's a good card, for sure, and it can slot into Modern or Standard Elves as a finisher. So, for those building Elves, it makes sense to acquire. I'm just a little surprised at the immediate interest, but that's why I do these analyses.

Rotation

I also see people acquiring cards perhaps because they anticipate them being solid in the new Standard metagame, but also because those cards won't rotate. It's difficult to tell what the metagame will look like, but underpriced cards that looked ripe with potential definitely were in demand on PucaTrade.

Ojutai's Command at number 3, Myth Realized at number 24, Silumgar's Command at 37, Spirit of the Labyrinth at 48. These are cheap cards with potential.

See the Unwritten is a card that does not see a lot of play right now, but it has potential to see more in the next iteration of Standard, once rotation comes. A moderately high number of people are stocking up now.

People who just want to play Standard are likely the ones picking up Siege Rhino, Abbot of Keral Keep, Soulfire Grand Master, Languish, Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and Atarka's Command. There are dual purposes to some of these cards, but they all seem good in Standard.

Solid Investments

Any of the Fetchlands like Flooded Strand, Wooded Foothills, etc., are a pretty good bet to maintain value in the long term. All of these Khans versions are on the top list of trades. Also, we see Dictate of Erebos, which gained traction as a popular, powerful, and underpriced card. Judging from the success in Commander of Grave Pact, the card makes sense to acquire at cheap prices. Siege Rhino and Dig Through Time also seem like solid investments if there was a chance you would play them anyway, as they are nowhere near their all-time high price levels.

Finance

So, now we know what people were acquiring last month, and I gave you my thoughts on why. Does this mean, if we want to be financially successful with our trades, that we should just trade these 52 cards? Well, no. That would be way too easy.

If you are looking for investments in cards, there are two kinds: risky or speculative ones, and solid ones. If you want solid investments, then the ones I listed under solid investments are probably a good bet, but they are not the only ones. Sometimes, solid investments are under the radar. They are cards that are not likely to drop, but are likely to rise in price over time, even if slowly. Also, they are cards that are easy to get rid of when you need to – or, alternatively, ones that you are likely to play.

Then there are riskier investments in cards. People attempt to acquire these cards when they are cheap, even if there is uncertainty about the level of play they will have. Standard cards are ideal for this purpose. The cheap cards I listed under the Rotation section are examples of this. The Standard cards are currently a fraction of their all-time high, and people are betting they will increase in value. If a rare is 50 cents, it has potential to rise to about $10 or higher if it sees a lot of play or is from an older set. Sincer we're talking about standard cards here, I think $5 is a more realistic limit for a rare. Cards like Ojutai's Command, Silumgar's Command, Myth Realized are the ones the PucaTrade community has been trading for. They all have a decent upside if they turn out to be four-ofs in a popular standard deck.

Mythic Rares have a higher ceiling than simple rares when it comes to price appreciation. See the Unwritten is a card PucaTraders have been acquiring, and it's currently in the 300 PucaPoint range. If it “spikes” in price, it could go up to $10.

That's a pretty good return, but it's speculative. The good news is that the low on the card is probably about 100 PucaPoints. For a Mythic, that's bulk level. So, you could lose 2/3 of your investment over time, or you could triple it. That's the level of risk here.

But there's more to these investments than simply risk and reward. We also have to account for opportunity cost. When you invest in five copies of See the Unwritten, that's one fewer fetchland you can get. So, unless you are Mr. Moneybags, you have to pick and choose which kind of investments you want, or if you just want to get the cards you need to play a deck right now. If things pan out well, you'll make a good return on your investment. If they don't, you'll be stuck with a whole bunch of Silumgar's Commands and See the Unwrittens, which may be hard to get rid of after they are no longer legal in Standard. Even if playable in Commander, the demand there is likely to be less, since only one copy is needed, and foils are more popular.

Most Active Wants

A great new feature that is available to Rare PucaTrade members is the most Active Wants. One great thing about PucaTrade is that the top trades don't tell the whole story – for there to be a trade, there have to be two willing parties. But there are a whole lot of Wants out there for which no trades have been made. Here is that top 50 list for the past month.

This list starts off in a pretty boring fashion! Lands, Lands, Lands! Throw in some Modern staples – Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Spellskite, Abrupt Decay. Although the latter half of the list is more interesting in some ways, I think the first half can tell us more about finance and what the PucaTrade community is trying to acquire.

When I talked about risky versus safe investments above, it looks like desire is not the only factor. Plenty of people want Fetchlands and Shocklands as nice, safe investments, but there is a waiting list. What is a person to do? Two options: wait it out, or choose a target that you can acquire right now. I think both are acceptable options. This top 50 list does give us a really interesting look, though.

If you want to be able to see it at any time, the Most Wanted List is one feature at the Rare level that might be really appealing. An upgrade is a great way to support PucaTrade, and you can feel good about getting some insight that might help you out in the finance arena.

I hope you all enjoyed this look at the top trades from the last month, with an eye towards finance. Please leave your comments below!

James Rosenblum is the Editor of PucaTrade's blog. He started playing Magic: The Gathering in 1994, around The Dark, and returned to the game after a ten year hiatus around the release of Magic 2010. He has first place finishes in tournaments of at least 150 people in Standard and Legacy, and a top 4 finish in a large Modern PTQ for Pro Tour Gatecrash.

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