Baldino - Mitchell - Borick - Brauer - - Clinton - - Pete G. Wilcox file photo | Times Leader Trump Republican candidate for president Donald Trump points to the crowd during his speech at a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre Township. - - Pete G. Wilcox file photo | Times Leader Republican candidate for president Donald Trump holds 2-year-old Hunter ‘Baby Trump’ Tirpak, of Tuscarora, Schuylkill County at a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre Township. - - Associated Press file photo Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis Oct. 9. - - Aimee Dilger file photo | Times Leader Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally at the Riverfront Sports Complex in Scranton. - -

WILKES-BARRE — For many people — political observers, candidates, supporters, voters and members of the media — Nov. 8 can’t come soon enough.

After a long, oftentimes contentious presidential campaign, America will soon know who will occupy the White House come Jan. 20 and what the make-up of Congress will look like.

Four local political analysts have offered their opinions/comments about the race, who they feel will win and what the outcome of the election will mean for all of us — and they all say Democrat Hillary Clinton will win out over Republican Donald Trump.

Tom Baldino, political science professor at Wilkes-University; Jeff Brauer, political science professor at Keystone College; Ed Mitchell, longtime political operative and a former candidate; and Christopher Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College agree that Clinton has the decisive edge over Trump.

But Election Day will be the final and definite poll to be cast.

• We will know then how those huge crowds that have poured into arenas across the country will translate to votes for Republican Donald Trump.

• We will know what Democrat Hillary Clinton’s questionable baggage — most recently the FBI’s decision to re-open its investigation of the former Secretary of State’s email — means to voters.

• We will know how America truly feels about the candidates since the lack of yard signs and bumper stickers has made it nearly impossible to gauge which candidate is favored.

All four analysts said the news of the reopening of the FBI investigation into newly discovered emails and how they pertain to Clinton will not have a significant effect on the election and they all said Clinton will prevail on Nov. 8.

“It wasn’t actually reopened since it was never closed,” Brauer said. “With the very little information that is currently being presented, it doesn’t change the election at this point.”

Brauer said most people who care about the email scandal have already decided how they are going to vote, and many have already voted early.

“The FBI process is going to take a lot longer than the days left in the campaign,” he said. “While more questions will be raised, nothing will be decided. So it may tighten the race a bit, but it won’t change the end results. Although Trump seems to think this is the miracle he needs to win.”

Borick said the news on the reopening of the FBI investigation is a significant event at this stage of the election and can certainly cut into Clinton’s advantage. He said the key will be how much of the concern around this issue is already built into voters’ positions this late in the game.

“I think she is still the favorite, but not as solid as she was 12 hours ago,” Borick said.

Mitchell flatly said “no” when asked if the news would change his opinion on the election outcome. Baldino agreed, saying most voters have already made up their minds and Clinton will win.

Baldino said the key for both candidates will be how base voters in respective parties turn out. In Pennsylvania, Baldino sees the southeast section — most significantly Philadelphia — as the key to carrying the state and its 20 electoral votes. But if Trump successfully suppresses Democratic base voters, again especially in the southeast, Baldino says he could win the state.

Voter turnout is usually much higher in presidential years and Baldino said it will play a critical role in who wins, especially in Pennsylvania. That said, Baldino notes that, despite statewide gains in voter registration by the Republican Party, the Democratic Party still holds a near-million vote lead over the Republicans among all registered voters, making it a greater challenge for Trump to win. But a win is possible.

Brauer put Trump’s chances bluntly.

“The key to a Trump victory is, quite frankly, a miracle,” Brauer said. “Clinton, on the other hand, simply needs to stay the course and she will win the presidency handily.”

Mitchell agreed, stating there isn’t anything Trump can do to defeat Clinton.

“I think it’s over for him,” Mitchell said. “He will do well around here because the demographics match his message. But across the country, I really don’t see him winning. He will lose the Electoral College soundly.”

Mitchell said Clinton needs to get to Nov. 8 without a major controversy and she will “bring it home.”

If crowds matter, Trump has attracted thousands to nearly every rally he’s held across the country, while Clinton has struggled to fill high school gymnasiums.

“Trump is very popular with certain segments of the population,” Brauer said. “He has attracted mostly white, working class, rural males with his nationalist rhetoric, particularly his anti-trade deals and anti-immigration stances. Many who have been hit hard by the loss of manufacturing and mining jobs look to Trump, with his business background, to restore good employment opportunities. People also find Trump’s no-holds-barred, tell-it-like-he-sees-it style to be refreshing and entertaining, especially for a political candidate. Trump, indeed, has been highly successful in attracting huge crowds to his rallies.”

Mitchell said none of that matters.

“Crowds don’t matter,” Mitchell said. “Crowds don’t vote. Many of those people attended the rally for entertainment. The circus was in town. Many of those people aren’t even registered to vote. And political signs don’t vote, either.”

Mitchell speaks from experience. In 1976, he ran against U.S. Rep. Joe McDade in the 10th Congressional District. He said he had way more signs in yards and along roads than McDade.

“If signs could have voted, I would have won in a landslide,” Mitchell said, admitting he lost that election 60 percent to 40 percent.

Mitchell said Clinton has presented a plan, a solid message, and she’s funded it, raising far more millions of dollars than Trump.

“His self-funding is a lot of malarkey,” he said. “Trump did put in $50 million and, while that is a lot of money, Hillary has raised $150 million in one month.”

The analysts agree popularity is not going to win this presidential race. In fact, they said Trump and Clinton are wildly unpopular with the population, as a whole, representing the two most unfavorable candidates in history.

“Clinton has all but fallen from grace since her 2008 presidential bid with a run of indignities that have called into question her honesty,” Brauer said. “The recent leak of her campaign emails has only exacerbated her popularity problems, even within the Democratic base. Much of her support at this point is simply out of the fear of a Trump presidency.”

Brauer said, for some time, it’s become very difficult with the changing demographics of the country, for a Republican to win the White House through the Electoral College system, which is all that counts.

“So it’s not popularity. It’s not even issues. At this point, it’s simply math and organization,” he said.

Issues

Borick said the polls show the economy, terrorism and health care among the most important issues to voters with the economy and jobs once again at the top of the list.

“While issues certainly matter and will play a significant role in the outcome of the race, this campaign has become much more about candidate character than any race that I have seen in a very long time,” Borick said. “These are historically unpopular candidates and their personal qualities have come to define this race more than any issue.”

Borick said the issues are not substantive or policy based. He said the “issues” in this election are those of character and temperament. Which of the two candidates is best able to serve as president?

“Positions on the issues do not seem to matter nearly as much as character and, since both candidates are seriously flawed in the character department, many voters are left feeling frustrated,” Borick said. “I think many voters will decide on a candidate using their feelings or emotions.”

Down ballot effects

What this all means for the down ballot races is that the fate of down ballot candidates is tied to their presidential candidates. Brauer said with Trump’s chances of winning dwindling by the day, Democrats have been able to refocus resources to down-ballot races.

“It seems very likely that Democrats will pick up the seats necessary to retake the U.S. Senate,” he said. “Pennsylvania will play a key role in that equation.”

Mitchell said “the Senate is gone,” meaning the Democrats will re-gain control. Borick agreed, saying if Clinton wins solidly, she might give enough of a coat-tail effect to carry Democrats to a 50-50 split in the Senate races.

The analysts said this all means a Clinton presidency with a slightly Democratic Senate and a very modest Republican majority in the House.

Baldino https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_Baldino_Tom-mug2-5.jpg Baldino Mitchell https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_Ed-Mitchell.jpg Mitchell Borick https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_ChrisBorick-6931s.jpg Borick Brauer https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_JeffBrauer.jpg Brauer Clinton https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_113144785-e7ad7f9a80d04cbe8b5b9c20df0e5af9-4.jpg Clinton Trump Republican candidate for president Donald Trump points to the crowd during his speech at a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre Township. https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_MoheganRally-1.jpg Trump Republican candidate for president Donald Trump points to the crowd during his speech at a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre Township. Pete G. Wilcox file photo | Times Leader Republican candidate for president Donald Trump holds 2-year-old Hunter ‘Baby Trump’ Tirpak, of Tuscarora, Schuylkill County at a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre Township. https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_donaldtrump10-cmyk-1.jpg Republican candidate for president Donald Trump holds 2-year-old Hunter ‘Baby Trump’ Tirpak, of Tuscarora, Schuylkill County at a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre Township. Pete G. Wilcox file photo | Times Leader Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis Oct. 9. https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_Debate-1.jpg Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis Oct. 9. Associated Press file photo Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally at the Riverfront Sports Complex in Scranton. https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/web1_TTL081616DemoPromo9.jpg Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally at the Riverfront Sports Complex in Scranton. Aimee Dilger file photo | Times Leader

Reach Bill O’Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.

Reach Bill O’Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.