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Alberta’s climate plan could lead to 15,000 fewer jobs, a $4-billion drop in household income, as well as lower corporate profits, oil exports and overall economic activity.

That’s what Alberta Treasury Board and Finance officials initially projected last November in an internal analysis conducted for the NDP government — data the province doesn’t deny, but insists was based on invalid assumptions that make the information irrelevant.

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The province hasn’t released a fully detailed economic impact assessment, but preliminary government analysis from November — dated about a week before the climate strategy was unveiled by Premier Rachel Notley — shows an array of potential consequences.

According to a projection for Finance Minister Joe Ceci and obtained by the Herald, the climate plan would lower the province’s gross domestic product by 1.0 to 1.5 per cent by 2022, “due to the decline in energy investment, weaker production and lower consumer spending.”

Oil exports would be crimped by 0.5 per cent from the business-as-usual (BAU) case in 2018-19, the study says.

Consumer spending would fall by almost two per cent by 2022, “due to the impact on employment and slower wage growth.”