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MANILA - Philippine government forces should be careful not to attack Chinese maritime militia sighted around Pag-asa Island because Beijing can use this to increase conflict in the area, an analyst said Thursday.

The military earlier reported over 600 Chinese vessels have been circling Pag-asa Island (Thitu Island) in the West Philippine Sea since January this year.

Although these are not navy or coast guard ships with specific weapons, on board these vessels are crew members who might be armed with personal weapons and were trained for combat, said Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines' Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.

"We should never be provoked into taking aggressive actions in these vessels, but exposing them and then trying diplomatic channels to get them to back off and eventually get out of the area is another thing," he told ANC's Early Edition.

Batongbacal said there is a pattern in China's deployment of these maritime militia, as evidenced by its violent takeover of portions of the Paracel Islands following a clash with Vietnam.

A provocation, where "somebody fired upon somebody else" in the disputed area could become the "pretext to send in more lethal forces," he said.

"The tactic has been carried out before, so when you see these militia vessels hovering around these islands which are being claimed by China then it’s natural, it’s logical to think that maybe they’re going to employ the same tactic," he said.

He said the Armed Forces is exercising self-restraint and will not be "provoked by mere presence of these vessels" because China will say that they started the conflict if they take action against vessels.

Exposing the Chinese militia's moves in Pag-asa is a "step in the right direction" since these were being hidden from the public, he added.

"As long as people can see the activities of these vessels, then they can tell whether any provocative action has been taken and by whom. That, I think, will lessen the effectiveness of these maritime militia so that if ever an incident takes place, we know what the facts are," he said.

'PH HAS RIGHT TO DETAIN CHINESE POACHERS'

Batongbacal also rebuffed Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo's assertion that Chinese nationals can fish in the seas around Pag-asa Island.

In a previous interview, Panelo noted that Beijing and Manila previously agreed that "fishermen should not be disturbed there, both sides."

But Batongbacal underscored that the Philippines is claiming sovereignty over Pag-asa and its 12-nautical mile territorial sea. The government, then, has the right to enforce local laws and detain and arrest those in the vessels and impose fines upon them.

"Mere presence of a foreign fishing vessel not even doing anything, or perhaps especially if it’s not doing anything, then that is already considered illegal under our laws. Under our fishery code, that is poaching," he said.

"It’s not 'no problem at all' because there is continuing violation of our laws and there is no declared policy, there is no particular legal basis for the government to exempt these areas from the enforcement of our laws," he added.

There is "shaky legal ground" for the inaction of government around Pag-asa," he said.

Batongbacal acknowledged, however, that politically, it might not be the right thing to do because "it could cause an incident that escalates into even a small conflict."

The Philippines has filed a note verbale over the presence of Chinese vessels off Pag-asa Island, inquiring what these were doing and "why are those fishermen stationary," said Panelo.

For Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, the country should file a diplomatic protest, "otherwise, the Philippines will be deemed to have acquiesced to China’s claim that the waters around Pag-asa belong to China under its nine-dashed line claim."

These fishing vessels "have no right to fish within the 12 nautical mile territorial sea of Pag-asa," said Carpio, who was part of the Philippine team that made the case for invalidating China's 9-dash line claim before the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague.

"They can only exercise innocent passage in our territorial sea - meaning these vessels must transit in a straight, continuous and expeditious passage. These vessels cannot stop, loiter or even zig-zag in out territorial sea," he said.

Almost 3 years since the arbitration win, China refuses to recognize a United Nations-backed tribunal's ruling that invalidated its sweeping historical claim over the maritime rights in the South China Sea.

The Philippines under Duterte shelved the victory in favor of mending economic ties with China, which turned sour after the 2012 arbitration case was put forward.- with a report from Mike Navallo, ABS-CBN News