The global liberal order is holding up better than many feared a year ago.

In Europe, right-wing populists lost elections to the establishment in the Netherlands, Austria and France. U.S. President Donald Trump has prioritized traditional conservative causes like tax cuts over protectionism.

But globalists should not breathe easy. The nationalist insurgency is both growing and metamorphosing. It is not just eating away at relations between countries on issues such as free trade; it is also eroding the institutions and norms that prevail within countries.

This is not a problem for the global economy yet, as a synchronized upswing drives growth and stock prices higher. But it’s a shadow over the future. Populists sustained by legitimate grievances at the cultural and economic upheaval caused by globalization often govern by authoritarian or divisive means, undermining the stable, rules-based environment that businesses crave.

Two statistics illustrate the trend. The first is economic. Protectionism usually retreats as economies improve, but last year it rose despite a broad-based global expansion. Global Trade Alert, a Switzerland-based trade-monitoring group, counted 642 government actions that hurt other countries last year, from American tariffs on air mattresses to Chinese financial support for its cloud-computing industry. Though below the record set in 2015, that’s still up 95% from 2010.