With the season winding down, two of the most exciting teams in MLS compete for a final knockout round bye out East (Photo Courtesy of goal.com)

With NYCFC grabbing a road point in their visit to Chicago, the dust has settled at least slightly in the race for a knockout round bye in the Eastern Conference. The Chicago Fire now trail NYCFC by four points with only two games remaining, so it appears that the chase for the final bye will come down to Atlanta United and New York City. The Five Stripes sit at 53 points, only three behind and with a game in hand on the boys in blue, who are positioned at 56 points. With only five games remaining between the two clubs, each games holds significant weight as these two vie for the last bye. Let’s take a look at where each team stands as the season winds down.

The Case for Atlanta United FC

(Photo Courtesy of atlutd.com)

Tata Martino has his team rolling right now. Unbeaten in eight straight games with five of those results being wins, Atlanta has made a charge up the Eastern Conference table in the last month. They have three games remaining in their quest to overtake NYCFC in the standings. The Five Stripes currently are at 53 points with one game in hand over New York City. They will have a chance over the international break to match NYCFC, as they host Minnesota United on Tuesday night. Assuming they can handle their inaugural season brethren at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they would be even on points in second place, with a large advantage in the goal differential department (which is the next tiebreaker after total wins). This would set up an epic two game finish to the season for both of these teams.

After the home game vs Minnesota United, Atlanta closes out their schedule with an away match vs the Red Bulls, and a home game vs Toronto FC. Both of these teams are playoff caliber, so they will not be easy, but Atlanta are in fine form and will have a key advantage in both of these games. Against the Red Bulls, New York will be mostly locked into their current spot, and may not want to use their strongest lineup vs a team they may play head-to-head in two weeks. And when they welcome Toronto, the Reds will have long since locked up the top seed, and may be content heading into the playoffs not wanting to risk injuries to their main players on the season’s last day.

If they can manage to win vs Minnesota, and then grab four points in their final two games, Atlanta United will make life very difficult for NYCFC because they hold the pivotal tiebreaker. The international break comes along at the perfect time for this streaking team, after their stretch of eight games in 24 days. Following their game Tuesday night, they will have a 12 days before their next fixture, which will be ideal for resting for veterans like Greg Garza, Michael Parkurst, and Jeff Larentowicz, as well as young guns like Yamil Asad, Hector Villalba, Anton Walkes, and especially the injured Miguel Almiron (while Josef Martinez is abroad with the Venezuelan national team). With only one loss in their last 15 games, Atlanta United has placed themselves in prime position to not only enter the playoffs flying high, but doing on the back of a knockout round bye as well.

The Case for New York City FC

(Photo Courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

Two words: David Villa. New York City’s star striker has been spectacular all year, and is arguably the best player in the entire league. After a long four game goal-scoring drought by his standards, he bagged a vintage goal this past game vs Chicago to crack the 20 goal plateau. He is now in a personal chase as well as the team’s postseason one, as he trails Nemanja Nikolic by only one goal in the Golden Boot race.Last season down the stretch he was in a similar situation, when he trailed Bradley Wright-Phillips, and he exploded for six goals in his final four games. I would expect to see a fired up David Villa these final two matches, and that alone could carry the boys in blue into a second seed in the East.

After taking four out six points this past week, with a 1-0 win over the sputtering Impact and the draw vs the Fire, NYCFC has two games remaining. First they travel to New England to play the Revolution, and they finish off their season by hosting the red hot Columbus Crew. New York City has been a strong road team all season with six wins away from home, good for second in the league. And NYCFC has won their past two matches against the Crew, scoring a hearty seven goals in the process. The Crew have been playing very well lately but they are still suspect at the back, having conceded 47 goals this season, the most of any playoff team in the East. New York City will have opportunities to exploit this weakness in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium on the final day of the regular season.

As the third season for New York City FC winds down, the team finds itself in a great position. It sits in second place in a strong Eastern Conference, and is returning a multitude of players from injuries at the perfect time. In the last few weeks we have seen the return of David Villa, Ronald Matarrita, Alex Ring, and Yangel Herrera. And with the extra rest provided by the International Break, these players along with others have a chance to heal up, and maybe even be joined by the long-awaited return of commanding Center back Maxime Chanot. With all these pieces falling into place, NYCFC is rounding into form at an excellent time as they push for the second spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Prediction

(Photo Courtesy of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xnbs5LbRimM)

When all is said and done, I feel that Tata Martino will have led Atlanta United to a second seed in the Eastern Conference in their inaugural season. It is key that they hold the crucial tiebreaker over NYCFC, which allows them to be in control of their own destiny. I think they will brush aside the Loons with ease Tuesday night, which will put them even on points with New York City, and ahead of them on goal differential. And although their final two games are against playoff opponents, circumstances may dictate a weaker game-plan for their two foes down the stretch who will have much less to play for, and Atlanta stands to benefit. NYCFC may stumble in a potential trap game with Maxi Moralez suspended vs New England inside the football lines, where the Revs are a stout 11-2-2 at home this season. It will probably come down to the final day of the regular season, but I believe that Atlanta will emerge as victors in this race. And that could potentially lead to an intriguing Hudson River Derby hosted in the Bronx come knockout round…

Luke Benigno