IT SOUNDS like an outrageous act of provocation. In a referendum on April 15th, Guatemalan voters chose to file a claim at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) demanding sovereignty over 53% of Belize, their eastern neighbour. The Belizean government, however, responded with congratulations, saying the result “contributes further to the strengthening of democracy, peace and security”. It had reason to be sanguine: the most likely outcome is that nothing will happen.

Guatemala’s demand for a bigger chunk of Central America’s Caribbean coast is far older than Belize itself. In the 1700s Spain agreed to let Britain cut timber in the northern half of modern Belize. Britons searching for mahogany crept southwards. After Spain retreated from Latin America in the 1800s, Britain formally took over the entire territory, naming it British Honduras. The new state of Guatemala said it had “inherited” the region from Spain. Guatemala gave up its claim in 1859, in exchange for Britain building a road from Guatemala City to the Caribbean. But the road never materialised, and Guatemala declared the treaty void.

The dispute remained an irritant for most of the 20th century. Both Britain and Guatemala intermittently deployed troops to the region, and the threat of invasion by Guatemala’s military dictators contributed to the relatively late decolonisation of Belize; it did not gain independence until 1981. Although Guatemala recognised Belize in 1991, it reasserted its territorial claim eight years later. The two countries have set up an “adjacency zone” 2km wide to separate them. Tensions occasionally flare over shootings of people crossing the border.