The first of two matches to determine the Americas 2 representative at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan will take place at BC Place in Vancouver on Saturday. It’s new ground for Canada, who missed out on qualifying as Americas 1 for the first time when they lost to the USA in San Diego seven months ago. Uruguay, on the other hand, have never before tasted success in the Americas 2 qualifier, losing out to the Eagles in 2014 but defeating Russia in the Repechage to qualify for the 2015 World Cup.

Circumstances have changed dramatically four years later. Where once Canada would be considered heavy favorites over the Tier 3 nation, Uruguay find themselves ranked 18th on the official World Rugby Rankings, three spots above Canada. It was Los Teros who took the spoils in their last meeting, a 17-13 win at Maldonado a little over a year ago. Uruguay also own a vastly superior record in 2017, with 11 wins from 14 matches compared to just two wins and a draw in 13 matches for Canada.

Injuries have not been kind to the men in red ahead of the series. Out with long-term injuries are Ciaran Hearn, Conor Trainor, Andrew Coe, and Matt Evans, all of whom would have been expected to be in contention for match day positions in the backline. Blindside flanker Kyle Baillie and flyhalf Shane O’Leary were ruled out last week, and tighthead prop Matt Tierney dropped out just in the past few days. It’s hoped the latter trio will be fit to play a part in Montevideo next Saturday.

Filling in for Baillie on the side of the scrum is Evan Olmstead, the Newcastle lock who has played flank on occasion for club and country. Brett Beukeboom is fit to take a spot in the second row and Hubert Buydens starts his third consecutive test after recovering from a long-term knee injury. Tyler Ardron will play in his preferred No8 position before heading back to New Zealand for Super Rugby duties following the qualifier series.

Phil Mack continues as skipper at scrumhalf and renews his James Bay partnership with Connor Braid, the latter drafted in from the Canadian sevens squad for the Americas Rugby Championship. Nick Blevins is recalled after missing out on the November tour and there is a surprise choice in UBC’s Ben LeSage at outside centre. The 22-year-old has just two caps to his name, his only previous test start coming against Romania in November 2016.

The greatest strength of the side is undoubtedly the outside backs, where three of Canada’s greatest overseas professionals take the field together for the first time in a test match. Jeff Hassler is set to play his first international since the 2015 World Cup on the right wing, DTH van der Merwe switches from outside centre to the left wing, and Taylor Paris starts at fullback for the first time in his test career.

Uruguay meanwhile have selected what is likely the strongest XV they have ever put on a rugby field. As expected Castres lock Rodrigo Capó Ortega is named to win his first cap since 2014 in a scrum anchored by former Munster prop Mario Sagario. Juan Manuel Gaminara captains the side as he celebrates his 50th cap with France-based Franco Lamanna and hard-running Alejandro Nieto joining him in an abrasive and uncompromising loose forward trio.

Felipe Berchesi also arrives from France and partners the lightning-quick Santiago Arata at halfback, the latter edging out World Cup starter Agustín Ormaechea for the No 9 shirt. Nicolás Freitas and Andrés Vilaseca return to the starting lineup after being left in the reserves for the match against the SaberCats in Houston last weekend.

Out wide Leandro Leivas wins a spot ahead of Gastón Mieres, with the former’s power preferred to the pace and guile of the latter. Mieres is named on a strong-looking bench that includes scrum specialist Juan Echeverría, towering Oyonnax lock Manuel Leindekar, and World Cup centre Joaquín Prada.

While both sides field well-rounded lineups capable of varying their play, each has a clear path to victory. For Uruguay it’s the set piece with the lineout in particular of vital importance. Canada must maintain their discipline and avoid the driving maul, an area that has plagued their forwards consistently over the past year.

The speed and attacking flair of the Canadian outside backs could well steal the show. If the forwards find parity and release their star trio of van der Merwe, Hassler, and Paris, it will be a long day at the office for Los Teros. In the same regard Uruguay’s tactical kicking must be not give those strike runners room to counter-attack at will.

Given the significant benefit of home field advantage and a large number of full-time professionals in the Canadian roster it seems most reasonable to favor the men in red to win the battle at BC Place. A blowout score would be against the run of form for both. A relatively tight affair is the most likely result leaving room for speculation when the war concludes at the Estadio Charrúa next weekend.

CANADA

1 Hubert Buydens, 2 Ray Barkwill, 3 Jake Ilnicki, 4 Brett Beukeboom, 5 Josh Larsen, 6 Evan Olmstead, 7 Matt Heaton, 8 Tyler Ardron, 9 Phil Mack (capt.), 10 Connor Braid, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 12 Nick Blevins, 13 Ben LeSage, 14 Jeff Hassler, 15 Taylor Paris

Replacements: 16 Benoît Pifféro, 17 Djustice Sears-Duru, 18 Cole Keith, 19 Admir Cejvanovic, 20 Lucas Rumball, 21 Gordon McRorie, 22 Patrick Parfrey, 23 Brock Staller

URUGUAY

1 Mateo Sanguinetti, 2 Germán Kessler, 3 Mario Sagario, 4 Ignacio Dotti, 5 Rodrigo Capó Ortega, 6 Juan Manuel Gaminara (capt.), 7 Franco Lamanna, 8 Alejandro Nieto, 9 Santiago Arata, 10 Felipe Berchesi, 11 Nicolás Freitas, 12 Andrés Vilaseca, 13 Juan Manuel Cat, 14 Leandro Leivas, 15 Rodrigo Silva

Replacements: 16 Carlos Pombo, 17 Matías Benítez, 18 Juan Echeverría, 19 Manuel Leindekar, 20 Rodolfo Garese, 21 Agustín Ormaechea, 22 Gastón Mieres, 23 Joaquín Prada

Date: Saturday, January 27

Venue: BC Place, Vancouver

Kickoff: 17:00 local (20:00 Eastern, 22:00 Montevideo)

Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)

Assistants: Kurt Weaver (USAR) & Derek Summers (USAR)

TMO: Marc Nelson (USAR)

Broadcasts: TSN (Canada), ESPN 3 (South America), The Rugby Channel (USA)