Sajjan M. Gohel is International Security Director for the London-based Asia-Pacific Foundation , a policy assessment think-tank monitoring emerging geopolitical threats and analyzing the radical ideologies that feed violent extremism. The opinions expressed here are his own.

London (CNN) The timing of the Paris attacks was perhaps deliberately orchestrated to coincide with an anniversary that serves part of ISIS's propaganda machine. In November, 1914, as World War I raged, the religious ideologue Sheikh-ul-Islam declared jihad on behalf of the Ottoman Caliphate, urging his followers to take up arms against several countries including France, Russia and the United Kingdom. That conflict eventually resulted in the defeat and collapse of the Ottoman Caliphate -- a grievance frequently cited by al-Qaeda and ISIS.

French security forces move people in the area of Rue Bichat in the 10th District. A witness told BFMTV that firefighters were on the scene to treat the injured.

French security forces move people in the area of Rue Bichat in the 10th District. A witness told BFMTV that firefighters were on the scene to treat the injured.

Rescue workers and medics tend to victims at the scene of one of the shootings, a restaurant in the 10th District. Attackers reportedly used AK-47 automatic weapons in separate attacks across Paris, and there were explosions at the Stade de France.

Rescue workers and medics tend to victims at the scene of one of the shootings, a restaurant in the 10th District. Attackers reportedly used AK-47 automatic weapons in separate attacks across Paris, and there were explosions at the Stade de France.

People leave the Stade de France after explosions were heard near the stadium during a soccer match between France and Germany on Friday. Paris Deputy Mayor Patrick Klugman told CNN President Francois Hollande was at the match and was evacuated at halftime.

People leave the Stade de France after explosions were heard near the stadium during a soccer match between France and Germany on Friday. Paris Deputy Mayor Patrick Klugman told CNN President Francois Hollande was at the match and was evacuated at halftime.

French security forces rush in as people are evacuated in the area of Rue Bichat in the 10th District of Paris.

French security forces rush in as people are evacuated in the area of Rue Bichat in the 10th District of Paris.

Spectators gather on the field of the Stade de France after the attacks. Explosions were heard during the soccer match between France and Germany.

Spectators gather on the field of the Stade de France after the attacks. Explosions were heard during the soccer match between France and Germany.

A wounded man is evacuated from the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, outside Paris.

A wounded man is evacuated from the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, outside Paris.

Police secure the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, north of Paris, following explosions during the soccer match between France and Germany.

Police secure the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, north of Paris, following explosions during the soccer match between France and Germany.

A riot police officer stands by an ambulance near the Bataclan concert hall in central Paris.

A riot police officer stands by an ambulance near the Bataclan concert hall in central Paris.

A woman walks past police and firefighters in the Oberkampf area of Paris.

A woman walks past police and firefighters in the Oberkampf area of Paris.

A medic tends to a wounded man following the attacks near the Boulevard des Filles du Calvaire.

A medic tends to a wounded man following the attacks near the Boulevard des Filles du Calvaire.

Wounded people are evacuated outside the scene of a hostage situation at the Bataclan theater in Paris on November 13.

Wounded people are evacuated outside the scene of a hostage situation at the Bataclan theater in Paris on November 13.

Rescuers evacuate an injured person on Boulevard des Filles du Calvaire, close to the Bataclan concert hall in central Paris.

Rescuers evacuate an injured person on Boulevard des Filles du Calvaire, close to the Bataclan concert hall in central Paris.

A body, covered by a sheet, is seen on the sidewalk outside the Bataclan theater.

A body, covered by a sheet, is seen on the sidewalk outside the Bataclan theater.

Spectators embrace each other as they stand on the playing field of the Stade de France stadium at the end of a soccer match between France and Germany in Saint-Denis, outside Paris, on November 13.

Spectators embrace each other as they stand on the playing field of the Stade de France stadium at the end of a soccer match between France and Germany in Saint-Denis, outside Paris, on November 13.

Spectators invade the pitch of the Stade de France stadium after the international friendly soccer match between France and Germany in Saint-Denis.

Spectators invade the pitch of the Stade de France stadium after the international friendly soccer match between France and Germany in Saint-Denis.

A survivor of the terrorist attack in the Bataclan is assisted following terror attacks, November 13. The violence at the Bataclan, which involved a hostage-taking, resulted in the highest number of casualties of all the attacks.

A survivor of the terrorist attack in the Bataclan is assisted following terror attacks, November 13. The violence at the Bataclan, which involved a hostage-taking, resulted in the highest number of casualties of all the attacks.

Rescuers evacuate an injured person near the Stade de France, one of several sites of attacks November 13 in Paris. Thousands of fans were watching a soccer match between France and Germany when the attacks occurred.

Rescuers evacuate an injured person near the Stade de France, one of several sites of attacks November 13 in Paris. Thousands of fans were watching a soccer match between France and Germany when the attacks occurred.

Forensics are working in the street of Paris after the terrorist attack on Friday, November 13. The words "horror," "massacre" and "war" peppered the front pages of the country's newspapers, conveying the shell-shocked mood.

Forensics are working in the street of Paris after the terrorist attack on Friday, November 13. The words "horror," "massacre" and "war" peppered the front pages of the country's newspapers, conveying the shell-shocked mood.

A woman is evacuated from the Bataclan theater early on November 14.

A woman is evacuated from the Bataclan theater early on November 14.

Victims of the shooting at the Bataclan concert venue in central Paris are evacuated to receive medical treatment on November 14.

Victims of the shooting at the Bataclan concert venue in central Paris are evacuated to receive medical treatment on November 14.

Police officers patrol the area around Notre Dame cathedral in Paris on November 14.

Police officers patrol the area around Notre Dame cathedral in Paris on November 14.

A man with blood on his shirt talks on the phone on November 14. He is next to the Bataclan theater, where gunmen shot concertgoers and held hostages until police raided the building.

A man with blood on his shirt talks on the phone on November 14. He is next to the Bataclan theater, where gunmen shot concertgoers and held hostages until police raided the building.

Police, firefighters and rescue workers secure the area near the Bataclan concert hall on November 14.

Police, firefighters and rescue workers secure the area near the Bataclan concert hall on November 14.

Medics evacuate an injured woman on Boulevard des Filles du Calvaire near the Bataclan early on November 14.

Medics evacuate an injured woman on Boulevard des Filles du Calvaire near the Bataclan early on November 14.

Security forces evacuate people on Rue Oberkampf near the Bataclan concert hall early on November 14.

Security forces evacuate people on Rue Oberkampf near the Bataclan concert hall early on November 14.

Shoes and a bloody shirt lie outside the Bataclan concert hall on November 14. Most of the fatalities occurred at the Bataclan in central Paris.

Shoes and a bloody shirt lie outside the Bataclan concert hall on November 14. Most of the fatalities occurred at the Bataclan in central Paris.

Forensic police search for evidence inside the Comptoir Voltaire cafe after the attacks.

Forensic police search for evidence inside the Comptoir Voltaire cafe after the attacks.

Police are out in force November 14 near La Belle Equipe, one of the sites of the terror attacks.

Police are out in force November 14 near La Belle Equipe, one of the sites of the terror attacks.

A forensic scientist works near a Paris cafe on Saturday, November 14, following a series of coordinated attacks in Paris the night before that killed scores of people. ISIS has claimed responsibility.

A forensic scientist works near a Paris cafe on Saturday, November 14, following a series of coordinated attacks in Paris the night before that killed scores of people. ISIS has claimed responsibility.

In addressing the French nation and the rest of the world about the Paris attacks, President Francois Hollande commented , "It's an act of war, committed by a terrorist army Daesh [ISIS], an army of Jihadists, against France." He added, "We will lead the fight and we will be ruthless." The French President's bold declaration was followed up by statements of support and unity from U.S. President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron

However, strongly worded statements of solidarity and vows to defeat ISIS by Western leaders are simply platitudes and soundbites unless they're actually converted into a tangible strategy -- which is currently not the case. Up until the Paris attacks, ISIS has successfully called the West's bluff. They are convinced that the West doesn't have the appetite to send in ground troops into Iraq and Syria to dismantle the ISIS infrastructure. The terror group also believes the West will not go beyond the current campaign of air strikes.

Dependence on air strikes

Indeed, the Western strategy to defeat ISIS has depended virtually on the air war and training Iraqi troops and secular Syrian rebels. Understandably, Western forces have avoided striking at some ISIS targets because the group's fighters often operate from within civilian populations that could lead to collateral damage. The terrorist group also holds hostages in some of their buildings as human shields to deter air strikes.

Because Western forces do not have a noticeable footprint on the ground in Syria, it makes the job harder to develop intelligence on potential ISIS assets. ISIS commanders are also skilled at varying their methods of communication and traveling to avoid being detected. The air strikes have also not stopped or deterred ISIS from replenishing their ranks with a constant and steady stream of volunteers from the West.

Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks President Barack Obama, French President Francois Hollande, second from right, and Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo arrive at the Bataclan, site of one of the Paris terrorists attacks, to pay their respects to the victims after Obama arrived in town for the COP21 climate change conference early on Monday, November 30, in Paris. Hide Caption 1 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks The Eiffel Tower in Paris is illuminated in the French national colors on Monday, November 16. Displays of support for the French people were evident at landmarks around the globe after the deadly terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday, November 13. Hide Caption 2 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People hold hands as they observe a minute of silence in Lyon, France, on November 16, three days after the Paris attacks. A minute of silence was observed throughout the country in memory of the victims of the country's deadliest violence since World War II. Hide Caption 3 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks French President Francois Hollande, center, flanked by French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, right, and French Education Minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, center left, stands among students during a minute of silence in the courtyard of the Sorbonne University in Paris on November 16. Hide Caption 4 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A large crowd gathers to lay flowers and candles in front of the Carillon restaurant in Paris on Sunday, November 15. Hide Caption 5 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A man sits next to candles lit as homage to the victims of the deadly attacks in Paris at a square in Rio de Janeiro on November 15. Hide Caption 6 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People light candles in tribute to the Paris victims on November 15 in Budapest, Hungary. Hide Caption 7 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People gather outside Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris on November 15 for a national service for the victims of the city's terror attacks. Hide Caption 8 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People write messages on the ground at Place de la Republique in Paris on November 15. Hide Caption 9 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People pray during a candlelight vigil for victims of the Paris attacks at a church in Islamabad, Pakistan, on November 15. Hide Caption 10 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks French golfer Gregory Bourdy passes a peace symbol for the Paris victims during the BMW Shanghai Masters tournament November 15 in Shanghai, China. Hide Caption 11 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A man offers a prayer in memory of victims of the Paris attacks at the French Embassy in Tokyo on November 15. Hide Caption 12 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A woman holds a candle atop a miniature replica of the Eiffel Tower during a candlelight vigil Saturday, November 14, in Vancouver, British Columbia. Hide Caption 13 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Front pages of Japanese newspapers in Tokyo show coverage and photos of the Paris attacks on November 14. Hide Caption 14 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks An electronic billboard on a canal in Milan, Italy reads, in French, "I'm Paris," on November 14. Hide Caption 15 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks The Eiffel Tower stands dark as a mourning gesture on November 14, in Paris. More than 125 people were killed in a series of coordinated attacks in Paris on Friday. People around the world reacted in horror to the deadly terrorist assaults. Hide Caption 16 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Lithuanians hold a candlelight vigil in front of the French Embassy in Vilnius, Lithuania, on November 14. Hide Caption 17 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Thousands gather in London's Trafalgar Square for a candlelit vigil on November 14 to honor the victims of the Paris attacks. Hide Caption 18 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A woman lights candles at a memorial near the Bataclan theater in Paris on November 14. Hide Caption 19 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A man places a candle in front of Le Carillon cafe in Paris on November 14. Hide Caption 20 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A woman holds a French flag during a gathering in Stockholm, Sweden, on November 14. Hide Caption 21 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Nancy Acevedo prays for France during the opening prayer for the Sunshine Summit being held at Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando, Florida on November 14. Hide Caption 22 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks French soldiers of the United Nations' interim forces in Lebanon observe the national flag at half-staff at the contingent headquarters in the village of Deir Kifa on November 14. Hide Caption 23 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A couple surveys the signature sails of the Sydney Opera House lit in the colors of the French flag in Sydney on November 14. Hide Caption 24 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A woman places flowers in front of the French Consulate in St. Petersburg, Russia, on November 14. Hide Caption 25 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Candles are lit in Hong Kong on November 14 to remember the scores who died in France. Hide Caption 26 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A woman lights a candle outside the French Consulate in Barcelona, Spain, on November 14. Hide Caption 27 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Britain's Prince Charles expresses solidarity with France at a birthday barbecue in his honor near Perth, Australia, on November 14. Hide Caption 28 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks The French national flag flutters at half-staff on November 14 at its embassy in Beijing. Hide Caption 29 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte after a speech on November 14 in The Hague following the attacks. Hide Caption 30 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe becomes emotional after his speech on the French attacks during the opening ceremony of a Japanese garden in Istanbul, Turkey, on November 14. Hide Caption 31 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks A woman mourns outside Le Carillon bar in the 10th district of Paris on November 14. The attackers ruthlessly sought out soft targets where people were getting their weekends underway. Hide Caption 32 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People lay flowers outside the French Embassy in Moscow on November 14. Hide Caption 33 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Mourners gather outside Le Carillon bar in the 10th district of Paris on November 14. "We were listening to music when we heard what we thought were the sounds of firecrackers," a doctor from a nearby hospital who was drinking in the bar with colleagues told Le Monde. "A few moments later, it was a scene straight out of a war. Blood everywhere." Hide Caption 34 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People attend a vigil outside the French Consulate in Montreal. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offered "all of Canada's support" to France on Friday, November 13, in the wake of the attacks. Hide Caption 35 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks Police show a heightened presence in Times Square in New York on November 13, following the terrorist attacks in Paris. Hide Caption 36 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People light candles at a vigil outside the French Consulate in Montreal on November 13. Hide Caption 37 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks University of Nevada, Las Vegas, fans observe a moment of silence for the victims of the terrorist attacks in Paris before a basketball game November 13. Hide Caption 38 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks The house lights are shut off and scoreboard dark as Boston Celtics players pause for a moment of silence for the Paris victims before an NBA basketball game against the Atlanta Hawks in Boston on November 13. Hide Caption 39 of 40 Photos: World reacts to Paris attacks People light candles at a vigil outside the French Consulate in Montreal on November 13. Hide Caption 40 of 40

ISIS are also astute about the territory they control. They prioritize on towns connecting Iraq to Syria where they can also ensure a consistent supply line. Air strikes have not severed these key routes. Despite the desire of Western governments to degrade ISIS's operational capability, the group has ironically grown, proliferated and expanded its activities, and is now aided and abetted by franchises in Egypt, Afghanistan, the Maghreb and Nigeria.

The only effective fighting force on the ground in the region is the Kurdish Peshmerga. Recently, in a ground assault against ISIS, aided by U.S. air strikes, the Peshmerga re-took the strategic northern Iraqi town of Sinjar . This enabled the Peshmergas to sever an ISIS supply line, Highway 47, that connects Syria to Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, occupied by the terror group. That could impede the free flow of ISIS fighters, fuel and other supplies, forcing them to use more vulnerable and less secure smuggling routes. Sinjar is an example of where air strikes can produce results but only if accompanied by an effective ground operation.

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Following the events in Paris, the West has three stark options. Firstly, they can pursue the current strategy against ISIS which has proved ineffective. Secondly, initiate ground troop operations in conjunction with local allies in Syria and Iraq to pull apart ISIS's network. Thirdly, the West can simply give up entirely on Iraq and Syria and go into further isolation, which would be much to ISIS's delight. None of these options are risk-free and all carry consequences but an urgent recalculation from the current approach is required.

Management of Savagery

It is important to understand that behind the violence ISIS perpetrates is an ideological message that directs recruitment, strategy and tactics. ISIS's ideology and plan of action is based on the treatise "The Management of Savagery," which serves as its playbook and provides an insight into its agenda. The end goal is to inflict significant political, economic and social consequences through "savagery."

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The Management of Savagery is a conceptual doctrine that enables operations to be conducted with unity of purpose without constant communication. This has enabled ISIS commanders to give cadres general directions of what needs to be achieved, allowing them the freedom to determine how to carry out these directions. Often this would comprise of self-starters, or lone wolves. Yet, it can also involve clusters of people specifically trained and in communication with ISIS's leaders. Like the lone wolves, they are equally motivated by ISIS's ideology and doctrine and their attacks are designed to visualize the violence and perpetuate the fear factor. The recent attacks in Paris form part of this modus operandi.

Paralleling the ineffective air strikes in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has utilized The Management of Savagery with deadly effect turning theory into practice. Since September 2014, the ISIS ideologue, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, has issued three messages with each one inciting an escalation in the ferocity of ISIS attacks and mentioning specific countries and branches of Islam as acceptable targets. There have been targeted attacks against the police and armed forces in Canada, United States and France; hostage siege operations in Australia and Tunisia; suicide bombers killing Shiite Muslims in Lebanon and Kuwait; marauding attacks in Tunisia and France. The ISIS affiliate, Wilayat Sinai is also now accused of bringing down a Russian Metrojet airliner on October 31, killing 224 people.

Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks People go through a security checkpoint to attend a Mass in homage to victims of the Paris terror attacks at Notre Dame cathedral in Paris on Sunday, November 15. French President Francois Hollande declared a state of emergency after the attacks in Paris on Friday, November 13, and said border security has been ramped up. The terrorist group ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks. Hide Caption 1 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, center, speaks with police forces with French Interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve, left, and Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian at the Gare du Nord railway station in Paris on November 15 about security measures after the attacks. Hide Caption 2 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks French police secure the perimeter after panic broke out among mourners who paid their respects at the attack sites at restaurant Le Petit Cambodge and the Carillon Hotel in Paris on November 15. Hide Caption 3 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks Mounted police officers patrol in front of the Eiffel Tower in Paris on November 15. Hide Caption 4 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks Security personnel inspect vehicles at the border between Belgium and France on Saturday, November 14. Hide Caption 5 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks A police officer stands guard outside the Cafe Bonne Biere in the Rue de la Fontaine au Roi in Paris on November 14. Hide Caption 6 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks A French police officer guards the French-Italian border on November 14 in Menton, France. Hide Caption 7 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks Soldiers from the 3rd Marine Infantry Parachute Regiment of Carcassonne arrive at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris as security reinforcements on November 14. Hide Caption 8 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks Soldiers patrol the Eiffel Tower on November 14. Hide Caption 9 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks French police check vehicles on the bridge between Strasbourg and Kehl, Germany, on November 14. Hide Caption 10 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks Police vehicles are parked near the entrance to the Louvre in Paris on November 14. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said the state of emergency in France could mean restrictions on people's movements. Airports in France remained open, and airlines were still flying there, though some airlines reported canceled flights. Hide Caption 11 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks French police check vehicles on the so-called European bridge between Strasbourg and Kehl, Germany, on November 14. Hide Caption 12 of 13 Photos: Increased security following Paris attacks Police stand guard at a train station in Paris on November 14. Hide Caption 13 of 13

Pipeline of terror

Improving intelligence is important but it is a defensive measure designed to foil plots. For every attack thwarted, or aborted by the terrorists, there are at least another five in the pipeline. Some plots will inevitably bypass the security apparatus.

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Does the West have a red line or threshold for the volume of unacceptable fatalities orchestrated by ISIS before they consider direct on-the-ground intervention aimed at dismantling the ISIS infrastructure?

The Paris attacks come at a critical juncture in the battle against ISIS and draw eerie parallels to the al-Qaeda attacks in 1998 against the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, as well as well the attack on the U.S.S. Cole in 1999 off the coast of Yemen. Both incidents resulted in a limited U.S. response with ineffective air strikes preferred over decimating al-Qaeda's leadership in Afghanistan. The lukewarm reaction by the U.S. gave al-Qaeda the impression that the red line had not been crossed and this encouraged them to develop their plans further to hit the U.S. mainland culminating with the September 11, 2001 attacks.

If ISIS continues to follow The Management of Savagery's doctrine and program, and the West does not back up its intentions to defeat the terrorist group following the attacks in Paris, then we should expect to see significant acts of terrorism in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe as well as the United States.