

These people protesting illegal immigration now represent the majority of Republicans. (AP/Steven Senne/AP)

New polling shows a major shift in public opinion following Obama's decision to delay deportations for some undocumented immigrants.

A year ago, Quinnipiac University polls show, Republican voters narrowly supported a path to citizenship over deportation, by 43 percent to 38 percent. Now, support for a path to citizenship has evaporated among Republicans, declining to 27 percent. Fully 54 percent support deportation, while another 15 percent say that undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay but should not be allowed to become citizens.

Paul Waldman sees these polls as evidence that Republicans take their position from talking heads on television. When the right-wing media machine is firing on all cylinders, he writes, its audiences will believe anything.

At the same time, G.O.P. political strategists and conservative economists are probably also concerned about the Quinnipiac polls. The numbers show a party drifting toward an anti-immigration position that could harm the party's chances of winning the presidency.

It's too early to tell whether the shift toward deportations among Republicans is just a fluke that will disappear as tempers cool, or something more fundamental, but the answer probably depends on the party's leaders. If Republican politicians want to make a case to their constituents for comprehensive immigration reform sometime soon, and if they're able to speak with more or less one voice on the issue, they'll still find a sympathetic audience.

Correction: Tuesday's newsletter misstated the amount of time that has passed since Roe v. Wade. The Supreme Court's decision holding that women have a right to an abortion was 41, not 31, years ago. Thank you, @torrHL.

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What's in Wonkbook: 1) G.O.P. hopes to avoid a shutdown 2) Opinions: The political parties, oil prices, police unions, pregnant pigs, etc. 3) Ashton Carter for the Pentagon 4) Another stopgap for tax extenders 5) The future of humanity: capitalism, marriage, Mars

Number of the day: Police homicides are 47 percent more frequent that the FBI's annual reports suggest, according to a review of major departments' internal documents. "The result: It is nearly impossible to determine how many people are killed by the police each year." Rob Barry and Coulter Jones in The Wall Street Journal.

Chart of the day:

Violent crime has fallen in New York City even as the department has largely abandoned its stop-and-frisk policy. Rebecca Leber in The New Republic.

1. Republicans plan to avoid a shutdown



Republicans would fund the government through September, except for Homeland Security. The department would be funded only for a few months, giving Republicans another chance to confront Obama over immigration once they take control of Congress. Senate Democrats aren't thrilled, but it seems that they'll go along. The question is whether conservative Republicans will support the plan. Robert Costa and Ed O'Keefe in The Washington Post.

Separately, House Republicans will pursue a largely symbolic vote on deportations. The measure sponsored by Rep. Ted Yoho (R-Fla.), a large-animal veterinarian and an outspoken conservative, would strip Obama of his executive authority. Michael Bender for Bloomberg.

BEUTLER: Even shutting down the government wouldn't stop the executive action. Immigration agents don't need money from Congress to stop deporting people. The agency in charge relies on fees and can continue to operate even if the rest of the government closes its doors for a few weeks. The New Republic.

MILBANK: Republicans are backing down. Besides forcing the government to shut down, they have no way to meaningfully challenge Obama's decision on deportations, and that's a course they've apparently decided is too extreme. The Washington Post.

The risk of more fiscal brinksmanship could upset the recovery. Even if the government is funded, there are all kinds of other budgetary deadlines approaching, including the highway trust fund, the Export-Import Bank, and more. The uncertainty about how these disputes will be resolved could discourage businesses from investing. Jonathan Weisman in The New York Times.

Meanwhile, advocacy and legal-aid groups aren't ready for the influx of applications. "In New York City, advocates expect more than 250,000 applications in the first few months, many from people who can’t find or afford lawyers and speak little or no English. How best to help them? With money, ideally from Congress, but that is a lost cause since the Republicans are not going to do anything to help unauthorized immigrants with legal problems." The New York Times.

2. Top opinions

MATTHEWS: Reform conservatives dropped the ball on helping the poor. Obama threatened to veto a tax bill that did not include credits for the poor and the working class that some Republicans -- like Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Ohio) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) -- had previously advocated for. When the chips were down, it seemed as though Republicans just weren't willing to spend the money. Vox.

GALSTON: Democrats need to ask questions about the future, not about the midterms they just lost. The party that can explain how to make college more affordable while giving the workforce technological training and how to encourage entrepreneurship while also equitably distributing the benefits of economic growth will win in 2016. The Wall Street Journal.

WOLF: Lower oil prices come with risks. On the whole, cheaper fuel will stimulate the global economy -- but autocratic leaders of oil-exporting states such as Vladimir Putin could become desperate and dangerous as they lose a crucial source of revenue, and investments in energy efficiency will be curtailed. The Financial Times.

FRIEDERSDORF: Police unions protect bad police. Around the country, unions appeal on behalf of officers who shoot and kill unarmed civilians, beat their wives or get drunk on duty. More often than not, these appeals succeed. The Atlantic.

TRAISTER: Rolling Stone made mistakes, but those shouldn't obscure the truth. The important thing is "that there are plenty of real stories of rape: of violent rape, frat house rape, gang rape, date rape; that most rape accusers do not lie and that in fact it’s quite likely, statistically, that Jackie herself did not lie." The New Republic.

The District of Columbia's new streetcar line is more than a year overdue. Among other problems, the district chose an inexperienced contractor to supply the cars, turning down a quality Czech manufacturer for reasons that remain unclear. The Washington Post.

BITTMAN: Chris Christie puts his presidential ambitions ahead of pregnant pigs. The governor vetoed a bill that would have outlawed gestation crates, which immobilize sows for years, in New Jersey. Banning the crates is the right thing to do, but Christie was apparently worried about how his signature on the bill would be seen in presidential primary states such as Iowa. The New York Times.

3. Ashton Carter to be nominated for Defense Secretary

Carter is known for his experience with the bureaucracy at the Pentagon. He's a physicist by training who knows the guts of the Department of Defense. He understands the military's ballooning weapons-procurement costs and might be able to find ways to save money by focusing on actually useful projects. It's not clear how his appointment would affect foreign policy. The Wall Street Journal.

He's also an expert on cybersecurity. "A lot of our critical businesses are more vulnerable than they should be, and what should really happen is they should take the steps to harden themselves," he said recently, while also promising that the federal government was prepared to help defend against hackers. Andrea Peterson in The Washington Post.

4. Back to the drawing board with tax extenders

Congress will extend a slew of tax breaks only through the end of this year. They'll have to revisit the issue next year, after abandoning an effort to permanently write the breaks for special interests and corporations into the tax code following a veto threat from Obama. Republicans had been willing to consider the president's requests for tax breaks for the working class, but feared some of the money would go to undocumented immigrants who are paying taxes. Lori Montgomery in The Washington Post.

VINIK: Temporarily extending the breaks is the best among bad choices. "In the absence of tax reform, there isn’t a better way to deal with them. At the very least, some of the extenders will deliver mild benefits to the economy—and a larger deficit, in the short-term, is welcomed." The New Republic.

Goodbye to a wasteful idea. Making the subsidies permanent after decades in which they've been extended annually would have been expensive and silly. Obama did Republicans a favor by threatening to veto the bill. They can start with a clean slate and pass a real corporate tax reform bill next year. The Wall Street Journal.

With no progress on tax extenders, the 113th Congress exits quietly. Lawmakers are avoiding big fights in the lame-duck session, but also all the hard work. Given how dysfunctional this Congress has been in the past, it certainly could be worse, but the lame duck was a missed opportunity to make progress on politically sensitive and important issues. The Washington Post.

"Bonus depreciation" is an expensive lie. The tax break allows businesses to claim their equipment loses value faster than it does, which artificially decreases the income they pay taxes on. It doesn't work to stimulate the economy -- especially if when it is extended retroactively -- and it's surprisingly costly. David Super in The New York Times.

5. In case you missed it

Capitalism is broken. When firms compete for workers, wages rise, productivity improves and the economy is better off -- that's how the labor market is supposed to function. But even dog-sitters are now signing non-compete contracts. Matt O'Brien in The Washington Post.

But at least divorce rates are falling. At current rates, only a third of marriages since 2000 will end in divorce. Claire Cain Miller in The New York Times.

The first test flight of the spacecraft that could take us to Mars is scheduled for Thursday. The Orion, which is built for interplanetary travel, will launch from Cape Canaveral and orbit the earth twice before returning 4 1/2 hours later. The unmanned test flight will fly farther from the earth than any spacecraft in 40 years. Christian Davenport in The Washington Post.