Throughout 2019, The Dynasty Guru maintained projected peak wOBA leaderboards to help indicate the best minor league hitting performances throughout the year. The final 2019 update to the leaderboards was posted on 9/3/2019, at the end of the minor league season. To view these results, please follow this link.

We’ve finally turned the page on the 2010s. In the spirit of the New Year, I find myself reflecting on what has been and what lessons can be learned for the future. The result of this, of course, is a list of the best offensive seasons we have witnessed over the last decade, as judged by Jordan Rosenblum’s infallible and highly scientific peak wOBA projections. If you’re just interested in the results, skip to the list already! If you’re interested in hearing some of the context behind why I have put together this list, read on!

Near the end of the 2019 season, I wrote an article detailing the top minor league hitters of the previous decade by aggregating their overall minor league numbers and the projected peak wOBAs of each season they played. The purpose of the article was to get a sense of how well Jordan’s research and our methodologies can help predict future success. The result was an impressive list of 101 players from the 2010s.

During the time I was drafting this article, Jordan and I discussed and debated whether multi-season or single-season results (with that single-season being the current or most recent one) is more important in predicting future success. I won’t attempt to describe Jordan’s position, but in general, I fall on the multi-season side of that discussion. To me, the more data to slice, dice, and analyze, the better; though for me that also comes with the caveat that a player can show signs of greatness sometimes before greatness shows up regularly in the box score. I have rather simple reasoning to support my position – if a mediocre hitter is suddenly a great or very good hitter, it seems just as possible/likely, that he has gotten lucky (even for a full season) as it is that he has truly improved. So, while I have no problem jumping at a prospect posting huge numbers in his first 30 minor league plate appearances, when a player spends two years in the minors posting uninspiring numbers, then turns around in his third season to put up surprisingly good numbers, I am almost always skeptical.

In the Dynasty Guru offices (if you didn’t know, we each have 500 square feet of office space in our sky-rise, desks made of marble, and crystal computer screens [what’s that now?- Ed.]), a variation of this debate manifested while discussing who deserved higher placement in outfielder rankings between Kyle Tucker and Dylan Carlson. Carlson had a great, breakout season last year, moving all the way up to Triple-A while posting an overall slash line of .292/.372/.542. Tucker, by 2018’s standards, had a down year, though he rebounded from a dreadful start to finish with solid .266/.354/.555 line before receiving a cup of coffee and producing more solid numbers for the World Series runner-up. Carlson is the younger of the two (by a considerable 1.5 to 2 years), and the reasoning is that he had the better season and should be ranked higher as a result.

Both are rock-solid prospects, but for me, their seasons were close enough that I think their fuller body of work merits examination. In fact, I may take that a step further and suggest that perhaps past performance should almost always be taken into consideration. In the aforementioned Top Minor League Hitters article, Tucker ranks 62nd overall with a .368 overall peak wOBA, while Carlson ranks 94th with a .356 peak wOBA. In evaluating their track records, to me, Tucker’s remains well ahead of Carlson’s, and as such, I fall squarely in the #teamtuck camp.

Nonetheless, part of being a successful General Manager is keeping your biases in check. So, it only seemed fair to buttress 2019’s Best Minor League Hitters of the Past Decade article with a look into the 101 best single seasons for minor league hitters, based on our future peak wOBA projections. Between the aggregated list and the single-season list, which of these lists is more helpful in helping predict Major League success? We’ll leave it to you to decide!

The Top 101 Minor League Hitting Seasons of the Past Decade

Rank Name Year Organization &

Highest Level Age PA wOBA 1 Juan Soto 2018 Nationals (AA) 19 182 0.530 2 Giancarlo Stanton 2010 Marlins (AA) 20 240 0.500 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2018 Blue Jays (AAA) 19 408 0.498 4 Malcom Nunez 2018 Cardinals (R) 17 199 0.478 5 Jhailyn Ortiz 2017 Phillies (A-) 18 187 0.460 6 Mike Trout 2011 Angels (AA) 19 412 0.455 7 Oswaldo Arcia 2013 Twins (AAA) 22 155 0.454 8 Carlos Correa 2015 Astros (AAA) 20 246 0.453 9 Oscar Taveras 2011 Cardinals (A) 19 347 0.451 10 Chris Parmelee 2012 Twins (AAA) 24 282 0.449 11 Brett Lawrie 2011 Blue Jays (AAA) 21 340 0.447 12 Kris Bryant 2014 Cubs (AAA) 22 594 0.447 13 Anthony Rizzo 2012 Cubs (AAA) 22 284 0.443 14 Jorge Soler 2014 Cubs (AAA) 22 236 0.442 15 Yordan Alvarez* 2019 Astros (AAA) 22 253 0.442 16 Mike Zunino 2012 Mariners (AA) 21 190 0.442 17 Joey Gallo 2014 Rangers (AA) 20 537 0.441 18 Avisail Garcia 2013 White Sox (AAA) 22 216 0.441 19 Bo Bichette 2017 Blue Jays (A+) 19 499 0.439 20 Chris Davis 2011 Rangers (AAA) 25 218 0.439 21 Juan Soto 2016 Nationals (A-) 17 207 0.439 22 Victor Robles 2015 Nationals (A-) 18 261 0.439 23 Ronald Acuna Jr. 2017 Braves (AAA) 19 612 0.436 24 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2017 Blue Jays (A+) 18 527 0.436 25 Anthony Rizzo 2011 Padres (AAA) 21 413 0.436 26 Mason Martin 2017 Pirates (R) 18 166 0.435 27 Austin Riley* 2019 Braves (AAA) 22 162 0.433 28 Addison Russell 2012 Athletics (A) 18 244 0.432 29 Mike Trout 2010 Angels (A+) 18 601 0.431 30 Kyle Schwarber 2015 Cubs (AAA) 22 310 0.431 31 Josh VanMeter* 2019 Reds (AAA) 24 211 0.429 32 Miguel Sano 2013 Twins (AA) 20 519 0.429 33 Wander Franco* 2019 Rays (A+) 18 445 0.429 34 Eric Hosmer 2010 Royals (AA) 20 586 0.428 35 Luis Robert* 2019 White Sox (AAA) 21 465 0.428 36 Heliot Ramos 2017 Giants (R) 17 151 0.428 37 Mookie Betts 2014 Red Sox (AAA) 21 464 0.428 38 Byron Buxton 2013 Twins (A+) 19 574 0.426 39 Gavin Lux* 2019 Dodgers (AAA) 21 469 0.426 40 Wil Myers 2010 Royals (A+) 19 541 0.425 41 Franmil Reyes 2018 Padres (AAA) 22 250 0.425 42 Oscar Taveras 2012 Cardinals (AA) 20 531 0.424 43 Kyle Schwarber 2014 Cubs (A+) 21 311 0.424 44 Eloy Jimenez 2018 White Sox (AAA) 21 456 0.424 45 Freddie Freeman 2010 Braves (AAA) 20 519 0.423 46 Carlos Santana 2010 Indians (AAA) 24 246 0.422 47 Wander Franco 2018 Rays (R) 17 273 0.421 48 Bryce Harper 2011 Nationals (AA) 18 452 0.421 49 CJ Abrams* 2019 Padres (A) 18 165 0.421 50 Joc Pederson 2014 Dodgers (AAA) 22 553 0.421 51 Kyle Tucker 2018 Astros (AAA) 21 465 0.421 52 Mike Moustakas 2010 Royals (AAA) 21 534 0.420 53 Wil Myers 2012 Royals (AAA) 21 591 0.420 54 Gary Sanchez 2010 Yankees (A-) 17 196 0.420 55 Bobby Bradley 2014 Indians (R) 18 176 0.420 56 Domingo Santana 2015 Brewers (AAA) 22 411 0.420 57 Rafael Devers 2017 Red Sox (AAA) 20 358 0.419 58 Keston Hiura* 2019 Brewers (AAA) 22 243 0.419 59 Alexander Mojica* 2019 Pirates (R) 16 201 0.418 60 Tyler Austin 2011 Yankees (A-) 19 201 0.417 61 Maikel Franco 2015 Phillies (AAA) 22 151 0.417 62 Joey Gallo 2013 Rangers (A) 19 467 0.416 63 Brandon Belt 2010 Giants (AAA) 22 394 0.416 64 Austin Meadows 2013 Pirates (A-) 18 211 0.415 65 Corey Seager 2014 Dodgers (AA) 20 526 0.415 66 Nolan Jones 2017 Indians (A-) 19 265 0.415 67 Tyler O’Neill 2018 Cardinals (AAA) 23 273 0.414 68 Tyler Freeman 2018 Indians (A-) 19 301 0.414 69 Carlos Correa 2013 Astros (A) 18 519 0.414 70 Stone Garrett 2015 Marlins (A-) 19 247 0.414 71 Jurickson Profar 2011 Rangers (A) 18 516 0.413 72 Scott Van Slyke 2013 Dodgers (AAA) 26 272 0.413 73 Vince Belnome 2011 Padres (AA) 23 318 0.413 74 Andrew Benintendi 2015 Red Sox (A) 20 239 0.413 75 Antonio Cabello 2018 Yankees (R) 17 192 0.413 76 Paul Goldschmidt 2011 Diamondbacks (AA) 23 457 0.413 77 Jose Altuve 2011 Astros (AA) 21 391 0.412 78 Josh Rutledge 2013 Rockies (AAA) 24 162 0.412 79 Andrew Calica 2016 Indians (A) 22 216 0.411 80 Alex Kirilloff 2018 Twins (A+) 20 561 0.411 81 Eloy Jimenez 2017 White Sox (AA) 20 369 0.411 82 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2018 Padres (AA) 19 394 0.411 83 Jon Singleton 2010 Phillies (A) 18 450 0.411 84 Daniel Vogelbach 2012 Cubs (A-) 19 283 0.410 85 Alex Bregman 2016 Astros (AAA) 22 368 0.410 86 Roberto Ramos 2015 Rockies (A) 20 234 0.410 87 Xander Bogaerts 2012 Red Sox (AA) 19 532 0.410 88 Vicente Lupo 2012 Mets (R) 18 269 0.410 89 Jesus Montero 2010 Yankees (AAA) 20 504 0.409 90 Byron Buxton 2016 Twins (AAA) 22 209 0.409 91 Luis Garcia 2018 Phillies (R) 17 187 0.409 92 Xander Bogaerts 2013 Red Sox (AAA) 20 515 0.409 93 Desmond Lindsay 2016 Mets (A-) 19 150 0.409 94 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2017 Padres (AA) 18 575 0.409 95 Jon Singleton 2012 Astros (AA) 20 555 0.408 96 Anthony Rendon 2013 Nationals (AAA) 23 166 0.408 97 Joey Gallo 2012 Rangers (A-) 18 260 0.408 98 Brendan Rodgers 2019 Rockies (AAA) 22 160 0.407 99 Nate Lowe 2018 Rays (AAA) 22 555 0.407 100 Steven Souza Jr. 2014 Nationals (AAA) 25 419 0.407 101 Gilberto Jimenez* 2019 Red Sox (A-) 18 189 0.407

Bold* denotes that this was in the 2019 season

Observations of the Top 101 List

Right off the bat, I am struck by the higher “whiff” rate (players that did not become successful pro ball players), than with the aggregated rankings. This may be expected as there is likely a good deal more “luck” that can play into the equation. Whiffs on this list include Jhailyn Ortiz, who has come nowhere near his 2017 performance in two subsequent minor league seasons, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee, Avisail Garcia, Scott Van Slyke, Vince Belnome, Stone Garrett, Josh Rutledge, Andrew Calica, Jon Singleton, Vicente Lupo, Jesus Montero, and Desmond Lindsay.

Will Malcom Nunez rebound in 2020 or is he destined to join this list as well? Add young hot performers with confidence, but as I quoted in my Tenets for Fantasy Success article, “don’t let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.”

Of that list, only Singleton and Montero were highly regarded as prospects. Further, Singleton and Arcia are the only two that appear on this list that were also on the Best Minor League Hitters of the Past Decade

Juan Soto leads both lists. Was there ever any doubt? I also remember that impressive break-out campaign for Giancarlo Stanton – who did *not* make the cut for our Best Minor League Hitters of the Past Decade

Does anyone else remember how good Jurickson Profar looked as a prospect when he was coming up before the injuries kept setting him back? Peak wOBA projections do, as his 2011 season ranks #71. That ranking also suggests that he may have been overrated as the #1 prospect in 2012. Above him in the ranks for 2011 are Oscar Taveras (oh what could have been!) and Anthony Rizzo.

While we’re on the top prospects train: Jason Heyward (2010’s top prospect) did not make the list Mike Trout’s (2011) best season ranks #6 Byron Buxton’s (2013, 2014, and 2015) best season ranks #38 Yoan Moncada (2016) did not make the list and 2017’s Shohei Ohtani did not play in the minors Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.’s (2018) best season ranks #3. Wander Franco’s (2019) best season ranks #33

Joey Gallo is the only player who has 3 seasons in the top 101! I maintain my position that Gallo will have a ridiculous peak career (you will want to be a part of it!). The players who made the list twice are Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Mike Trout, Carlos Correa, Oscar Taveras, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Wander Franco, Byron Buxton, Wil Myers, Eloy Jimenez, Jon Singleton, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Not a bad list to be on!

Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Altuve never received a lot of prospect fanfare before they embarked on their impressive careers, but they can be found here!

Ten players from 2019 made the list. What a perfect ratio! Those players include, in order of highest peak wOBA projected, Yordan Alvarez, Austin Riley, Josh VanMeter, Wander Franco, Luis Robert, Gavin Lux, CJ Abrams, Keston Hiura, Alexander Mojica, and Gilberto Jimenez.

Since we all love lists so much, below are more lists related to these rankings and the Best Minor League Hitters of the Past Decade rankings!

Players that Made Both Lists

Name Rank in Combined Seasons list Combined wOBA Best Single Season in Top 101 Top Single Season wOBA Difference in Combined and Best Season Juan Soto 1 0.467 1 0.530 6% Mike Trout 2 0.444 6 0.455 1% Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3 0.437 3 0.498 6% Kris Bryant 4 0.437 12 0.447 1% Bryce Harper 5 0.431 48 0.421 -1% Kyle Schwarber 6 0.429 30 0.431 0% Wander Franco 7 0.423 33 0.429 1% Anthony Rizzo 8 0.417 13 0.443 3% Eric Hosmer 9 0.412 34 0.428 2% Joey Gallo 11 0.404 17 0.441 4% Ronald Acuna Jr. 12 0.402 23 0.436 3% Carlos Correa 13 0.397 8 0.453 6% Paul Goldschmidt 14 0.396 76 0.413 2% Oscar Taveras 15 0.395 9 0.451 6% Bo Bichette 16 0.395 19 0.439 4% Xander Bogaerts 17 0.393 87 0.410 2% Fernando Tatis Jr. 18 0.393 82 0.411 2% Mookie Betts 19 0.393 37 0.428 3% Andrew Benintendi 20 0.393 74 0.413 2% Luis Robert 21 0.392 35 0.428 4% Yordan Alvarez 22 0.391 15 0.442 5% Miguel Sano 23 0.390 32 0.429 4% Eloy Jimenez 25 0.387 44 0.424 4% Addison Russell 26 0.387 28 0.432 4% Byron Buxton 27 0.387 38 0.426 4% Domingo Santana 29 0.383 56 0.420 4% Victor Robles 36 0.380 22 0.439 6% Rafael Devers 37 0.380 57 0.419 4% Keston Hiura 38 0.379 58 0.419 4% Corey Seager 44 0.375 65 0.415 4% Carlos Santana 45 0.374 46 0.422 5% Austin Riley 47 0.374 27 0.433 6% Oswaldo Arcia 51 0.373 7 0.454 8% Gavin Lux 54 0.371 39 0.426 5% Jurickson Profar 55 0.370 71 0.413 4% Joc Pederson 58 0.368 50 0.421 5% Alex Bregman 65 0.367 85 0.410 4% Austin Meadows 74 0.364 64 0.415 5% Jorge Soler 77 0.362 14 0.442 8% Brendan Rodgers 79 0.362 98 0.407 5% Daniel Vogelbach 80 0.361 84 0.410 5% Jon Singleton 82 0.360 83 0.411 5% Tyler O’Neill 85 0.359 67 0.414 6% Maikel Franco 98 0.356 61 0.417 6% Gary Sanchez 100 0.355 54 0.420 7%

Players that Only Made the Single Season List

Name Organization &

Highest Level Age PA wOBA Giancarlo Stanton Marlins (AA) 20 240 0.500 Malcom Nunez Cardinals (R) 17 199 0.478 Jhailyn Ortiz Phillies (A-) 18 187 0.460 Chris Parmelee Twins (AAA) 24 282 0.449 Brett Lawrie Blue Jays (AAA) 21 340 0.447 Mike Zunino Mariners (AA) 21 190 0.442 Avisail Garcia White Sox (AAA) 22 216 0.441 Chris Davis Rangers (AAA) 25 218 0.439 Mason Martin Pirates (R) 18 166 0.435 Josh VanMeter Reds (AAA) 24 211 0.429 Heliot Ramos Giants (R) 17 151 0.428 Wil Myers Royals (A+) 19 541 0.425 Franmil Reyes Padres (AAA) 22 250 0.425 Freddie Freeman Braves (AAA) 20 519 0.423 Wander Franco Rays (R) 17 273 0.421 CJ Abrams* Padres (A) 18 165 0.421 Kyle Tucker Astros (AAA) 21 465 0.421 Mike Moustakas Royals (AAA) 21 534 0.420 Wil Myers Royals (AAA) 21 591 0.420 Bobby Bradley Indians (R) 18 176 0.420 Alexander Mojica* Pirates (R) 16 201 0.418 Tyler Austin Yankees (A-) 19 201 0.417 Brandon Belt Giants (AAA) 22 394 0.416 Nolan Jones Indians (A-) 19 265 0.415 Tyler Freeman Indians (A-) 19 301 0.414 Stone Garrett Marlins (A-) 19 247 0.414 Scott Van Slyke Dodgers (AAA) 26 272 0.413 Vince Belnome Padres (AA) 23 318 0.413 Antonio Cabello Yankees (R) 17 192 0.413 Jose Altuve Astros (AA) 21 391 0.412 Josh Rutledge Rockies (AAA) 24 162 0.412 Andrew Calica Indians (A) 22 216 0.411 Alex Kirilloff Twins (A+) 20 561 0.411 Roberto Ramos Rockies (A) 20 234 0.410 Vicente Lupo Mets (R) 18 269 0.410 Jesus Montero Yankees (AAA) 20 504 0.409 Luis Garcia Phillies (R) 17 187 0.409 Desmond Lindsay Mets (A-) 19 150 0.409 Anthony Rendon Nationals (AAA) 23 166 0.408 Nate Lowe Rays (AAA) 22 555 0.407 Steven Souza Jr. Nationals (AAA) 25 419 0.407 Gilberto Jimenez Red Sox (A-) 18 189 0.407

*Bold denotes that 2019 was the player’s first year in the minors

Overall, the aggregated rankings seem to provide the best quality results but has certainly also missed some high-risers such as Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Altuve.

It seems the best approach to finding top prospects seems to be: stay mindful of the full body of work, but also keep an eye out for statistical climbers while weeding out remarkable-but-lucky performers. Over the next decade, we at the Dynasty Guru pledge to do our part to help you sort through the sea of prospects!