With the warm days of summer well behind us, residents may soon start thinking about their winter heating costs.

And this year, it’s again mostly good news.

While prices for natural gas from UGI are set to jump this month, they’re still well below their historic highs.

Meanwhile, electricity prices have declined while some heating oil customers filling up their tanks last week were paying $1.89 a gallon —roughly half the price from four years ago.

“Generally speaking, the story has been that we remain at or near historically low prices,” said Mike Frey, an energy adviser with Richards Energy of Manheim.

Abundant supply of new sources of natural gas, such as from Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, has been driving down prices of all energy sources, Frey said.

Energy prices can fluctuate during the season depending on multiple factors, including demand and weather. Richards noted that a very cold winter could cause prices to spike.

But so far, it’s unclear if that’s a possibility this year.

While AccuWeather’s winter forecast predicts average temperatures in the northeast at 3 to 5 degrees lower than last year, Millersville University meteorologist Eric Horst said it’s too early to say anything definitive.

“There’s no signal that we can latch on at this time that gives a strong tell for the winter,” Horst said,.

Who heats with what

In Lancaster County, 33 percent of residential properties heat with electricity, 32 percent use oil and around 28 percent heat with natural gas, according to 2015 statistics from the Lancaster County Planning Commission, which are the most recent available.

Propane is the primary heating source for 3.9 percent of residential properties; coal is used by 2.14 percent; wood is used by 0.05 percent and solar is the primary source for 0.02 percent of residential properties, according to the county statistics.

The recent trend has been away from oil and toward natural gas.

In 2006, for example, 37 percent of properties used oil, 33 percent used electricity and 24 percent used natural gas, the county figures show.

Heating oil

This year’s lower prices for heating oil have followed the overall decline in crude oil.

“We’re going into our third winter with oil prices at or below $50 a barrel,” said Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, which offers daily research on energy markets.

“I’m not expecting any sort of significant hit to consumer pocketbooks this winter,” said Schork, who is based in Delaware County.

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Barring logistical delivery problems in a local market, heating oil prices will rise and fall with the price of crude oil, Schork said.

When crude oil prices peaked at $147 a barrel in July 2008, some local heating oil prices subsequently rose to nearly $5 a gallon.

Schork said he doesn’t expect crude oil to top $55 a barrel in the near term, meaning that heating oil prices should stay low.

In Lancaster, heating oil customers filling their tanks when it is still warm outside have been enjoying some of the biggest savings.

Several months ago, Mario Asencio, owner of Conquistidor Oil in Lancaster, sold some heating oil for $1.49 a gallon. Last week he was selling it for $1.89 a gallon.

“I don’t think people will be paying more than $1.99,” he said.

Electricity

Homeowners who heat primarily with electricity will also see some savings this year.

PPL’s current “price to compare” is 7.49 cents a kilowatt-hour — a 21 percent decrease from 9.49 cents at this time last year.

This rate applies to customers who have not chosen an alternative supplier and therefore have PPL as their “default” source of electricity.

However, customers can choose from dozens of other suppliers, which offer rates as low as 4.9 cents a kilowatt-hour. Last year at this time, the lowest alternative rate from a supplier was 6.1 cents a kilowatt-hour.

The average monthly usage for all customers is 1,000 kilowatt-hours, with electric heat customers averaging about 1,300 kWh in a year, according to PPL.

Natural gas

Prices for natural gas from UGI will rise this month following years of steady declines.

With a hike going into effect Oct. 19, the average residential customer’s bill will grow by $4.18 per month, from $59.23 to $63.41.

That’s a 10 percent increase from the average bill in October 2015, when the average bill was $57.55.

This typical customer uses 6,080 cubic feet per month for cooking and home heating, UGI said.

Even with this increase, the residential customer’s bill will be 43 percent below the all-time high set in 2008, according to UGI.

Prices declined steadily after 2008 because of plentiful, nearby supply of Marcellus Shale gas, but are rising now because of higher gas costs, UGI said.