Peyton Manning.

Tom Brady.

Aaron Rodgers.

Andy Dalton?

While it seems simple to choose which name does not belong right now, things may be different after this season. Those three quarterbacks, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers, are the only quarterbacks to hold the title of NFL MVP since 2003 (Manning and Steve McNair split the honor in 2003). Brady and Rodgers have their targets set on keeping the award in familiar hands, but through Week 6, Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton is steadily building his resume to do something that no Bengal has done since Boomer Esiason in 1988.

Dalton’s efforts this season have been appropriately lauded, even though a certain air of hesitation continues to hang over his head. No one wants to be the one to publicly back Andy Dalton and then watch as “Bad Andy” appears the following Sunday and make everyone reminisce about the time that Dalton put together six incredible performances during a season that ultimately ended in another early playoff exit. This joke has been reliable in years past, but at some point you have to wonder if this season is the new Andy Dalton and “Bad Andy” is a thing of the past. With every week bringing a more sanguine Dalton, new factors arise that point to an MVP-caliber season, and a team that will finally taste success in the playoffs.

In the last couple of seasons, the Bengals have been labeled as one of the most talented teams in the NFL; it would just depend on whether Andy Dalton could do enough to give their playmakers a chance to win football games. Through six games in 2015, Dalton has been THE playmaker for the team. While Dalton has developed tremendously as a player and leader, this topic cannot be discussed without mention of those around him on the field. The offensive line has been fantastic in 2015[1], improving on what was already one of the best adjusted sack rates in 2014, as Dalton has only been sacked on 3% of drop backs, good for 4th in the league (This is a number that has decreased every year for Dalton since 2012). Not only is the line protecting Dalton more effectively, but he is also getting rid of the ball quicker. Entering Week 6, Dalton was releasing the football on average 2.07 seconds after receiving the snap, good for 2nd behind Tom Brady, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Dalton is feeling comfortable in the pocket, and at times this season it has seemed his primary concern is making sure all mouths are fed as this offense is loaded with talent at the skill positions. After taking a step back in his sophomore season due to the emergence of the bruising Jeremy Hill[2], it seemed Giovani Bernard would mainly serve as the 3rd down back while in Cincinnati. While Gio has continued to be Dalton’s preferred target out of the backfield, the UNC product has also been efficiently slicing defenses on the ground instead of Hill. Boasting a yards per carry average of over 4.5 in five of six games, Bernard has given opposing defenses reason to think twice before only focusing on the passing game when seeing him in the backfield with Dalton.

Perhaps more important to the success of the Red Rifle has been the return from injury of two 25 year old pass catchers. In 2013, Marvin Jones was one of ten receivers in the NFL with 10 touchdown catches and had 130 yards in their lone playoff game. Instead of building on this momentum and establishing himself opposite A.J. Green, Jones was forced to sit out the entirety of the 2014 season with ankle and foot issues. Sidelined alongside of Marvin Jones in 2014 was tight end Tyler Eifert, who dislocated his elbow in Week 1 and ultimately missed the rest of the season. The addition of a solid receiver and tight end to any roster will make a quarterback’s life easier, but these two have exceeded the lofty expectations placed in front of them. With Jones stretching the field vertically opposite Green, and Eifert attracting attention in the middle of the field, these two have combined for 663 yards on 52 catches through 6 games. While Dalton is fortunate to have these options, it speaks to the Bengals’ balance that A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert are the only receiving trio in the NFL to each have 300 yards thus far in the season.

While the pieces mentioned above help to explain how the Bengals are an undefeated team (the defense holding opponents to 20.3 PPG helps as well), it’s time to look at what makes Andy Dalton a viable MVP candidate. I used to jokingly call Andy Dalton “Fire Diamond” because of his red hair and the fact that diamonds harden and develop under pressure. Up to the start of this season, a diamond’s reaction to pressure could be seen as the antithesis to Andy Dalton, with an 0-4 record in the playoffs. But now, we may be starting to see the diamond form, punctuated by the come from behind victory over Seattle after facing a 17 point deficit in Week 5.

One of Dalton’s biggest improvements this season is in the interception department. He has only thrown two this year, and it is interesting to compare 2015 with 2014 using Pro-Football-Reference’s projected points before and after a key play[2]. Below is a chart showing the swing of expected points before and after an interception by the four quarterbacks emphasized above through Week 6 of 2015, as well as Andy Dalton’s numbers from 2014. The difference is striking:

Expected Points Before Play Expected Points After Play Overall Expected Points Swing Due to Interception Peyton Manning 16 -32.78 -48.78 Tom Brady -0.78 -7 -6.22 Aaron Rodgers 5 -5.18 -10.18 Andy Dalton 7.28 -0.32 -7.6 Dalton 2014 23.5 -53.39 -76.89

In continuing with the comparison to these players, the top vote getters for recent MVPs have been at or near the top in net yards per pass attempt[3]. Tom Brady finished third in his 2010 MVP season with 7.21 NY/PA and since then, when a QB has won MVP, he has led the league in NY/PA. In 2011, Aaron Rodgers led with league with 8.22 NY/PA, in 2013, Manning led the league with 7.91 NY/PA and in 2014, Rodgers led the league with 7.68 NY/PA. This year, Dalton leads the league[4] with an astronomical 8.69 NY/PA after hovering around 6.5 NY/PA in his first four seasons. So what has changed? Even though Dalton is getting rid of the ball quickly, he is looking down the field more than ever. If he maintains his current pace, he will throw fewer passes that travel less than 10 yards than any previous season. Not only is he looking downfield, he is more accurate with these throws this season, and the impact is being felt. Dalton is on pace to match or set career highs in average yards per attempt on throws of all varieties past the line of scrimmage, but two areas that deserve to be emphasized are the passes that travel 11-20 yards down the field and 21-30 yards down the field, as shown below:

Ball Thrown 11-20 Yards Ball Thrown 21-30 Yards Completions Attempts Avg. Yards Completions Attempts Avg. Yards 2011 46 102 8.86 13 32 11.28 2012 56 103 10.1 7 32 6.47 2013 62 124 8.7 8 40 6.43 2014 39 89 8.66 6 24 7.08 2015 (Six Games) 21 35 11.23 9 15 21.47 2015 Projected 56.0 93.3 11.23 24.0 40.0 21.47

Yes, the season is only six games old, but Dalton is playing at a different level this year and these types of throws are what separate good quarterbacks from great quarterbacks. The line is keeping Dalton clean and the pass catchers are getting open down the field, but Dalton is the one making these throws. Look at this pass in that Seahawks comeback mentioned earlier. The Bengals had scored two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to this point, a Dalton TD pass and a Dalton rushing TD, and they trail by 3 with 1:25 left on the Seahawks’ 45 with no timeouts. Dalton throws arguably his best pass of the season, putting it only where Tyler Eifert can make the play while being covered by Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor.

If Andy Dalton can continue to play near this level, he belongs in the MVP discussion. In what would be an odd twist of fate, the rest of Bengals’ would be responsible to win him the award after so many years of the team and fans seeing Dalton as the individual holding the team back. With four other undefeated teams led by dominant quarterbacks, it is likely that the MVP will come from a team that ends the regular season near the top of the standings. With Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Cam Newton garnering deserved attention for their undefeated efforts, Dalton and the Bengals have a long way to go. Heading into their week 7 bye, the Bengals have guaranteed they will not lose before November for the first time since 1975 and are 6-0 for the first time since 1988, the last year a Cincinnati Bengal won the NFL MVP award. It is time to believe in Andy Dalton.

[1] The Bengals selected two tackles, Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher, in the first two rounds of the 2015 draft as three current linemen will be unrestricted free agents at the end of this season, a sign that protecting Dalton is priority to this offense’s success moving forward.

[2] Hill out-carried Bernard 83-29 in the last four game of 2014.

[3] These points are displayed for the quarterback’s teams. For example, Dalton has thrown an interception on two separate drives. At the time of each interception, the Bengal’s expected point value combined equals 7.28 expected points based on field position, time, down, etc. After the interception, the opponents were expected to score a combined -.32 points based on field position and game situation.

[4] (passing yards – sack yards)/(passes attempted + times sacked).

[5] Ben Roethlisberger leads the league but has not played since a knee injury suffered in Week 3.