Riverside County expects to be out of intensive care hospital beds by Sunday, April 12, and to run out of ventilators by Sunday, April 26, based on projections of county cases of the novel coronavirus released Wednesday morning, April 1.

The updated projections, shared by county Public Health Officer Dr. Cameron Kaiser via Twitter, still show 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in the county by early May. More than 60,000 coronavirus cases in the county of 2.3 million are projected by May 6.

“The situation continues to worsen, which includes more confirmed cases and hospitalizations,” county spokeswoman Brooke Federico said via email. The county’s COVID-19 death toll of 13 “is a sad reminder that this disease is deadly,” she added.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the county had confirmed 429 cases along with 13 deaths – including the first recorded in Corona and Wildomar – from the virus, up 58 from Tuesday. The county had just 195 confirmed cases on March 28.

Riverside County health officials now recommend that its residents cover their mouths and noses when out in public to prevent transmission of COVID-19, along with staying at home, frequently washing hands and standing at least 6 feet apart from another person while outside.

Asked how well county residents are doing at preventative measures, Kaiser via an email said: “I’ve seen encouraging signs from the community, but I’m concerned that there are still some who are not getting the message. I would hate for more deaths to be what gets their attention.”

The latest projections show a “doubling rate” – the rate at which coronavirus cases double – of 4.7 days. In other words, if the county has 371 cases today, it can expect to have 742 in roughly five days.

Riverside County’s 172 ICU beds are projected to be full by Sunday, April 12, with the county’s 1,399 hospital beds full by April 22. Previously, officials projected county hospitals to be at capacity between April 12 and 21.

If the county runs short on hospital beds, Federico said: “Hospitals will use their internal and countywide surge plans to add more capacity to their facility and move less severe patients to skilled nursing facilities or the federal medical station.”

Such moves would be based on the needs of patients and the facility to get patients the “most appropriate care,” she said.

The county expects its 172 ventilators to be at full capacity by April 26. The previous projection had ventilators running out between April 22 and May 5.

The latest projections assume the doubling rate stays and same, and are based on reported cases to date. Officials have said that if residents follow directives to prevent COVID-19’s spread, the doubling rate will grow longer and projections can change for the better.