Hello again, it’s time for your 5PM election update. First, uncounted ballot stats:

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 441,011 Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 238,551 Total Estimated Left to Count: 202,46

Today 60K votes were processed, so it appears to OC ROV is serious about getting this done quickly, and possibly before the Thanksgiving holiday. They still have a long way to go with 130K of provisionals to review, and I have a hunch these may take longer to count than typical mail-ins.

On to the numbers:

**Analysis**

CA-39

Cisneros made some substantial OC gains today! This 468 net gain in votes puts him a tantalizing 122 votes away from officially leading in this race. The county today announced that it is now moving onto counting provisional ballots. These will probably still be dem friendly but my guess is the “churn rate” or actual processing of each ballot will be slower. My prediction yesterday of Cisneros taking the lead by Friday still stands, but he could take it by tomorrow if he has another day like today. Lean D

CA-45

The good days for Porter keep coming. Having taken the lead yesterday, she is now up almost 4K votes. This is not a very easy hole for Walters to climb out of, though there is still a question regarding how provisional ballots will lean here. Regarding some concerns I had about Tustin’s turnout rate, it appears that in the last day, a lot of Tustin ballots had been counted and that 24% turnout has now ballooned into ~50% turnout, undoubtedly helping pump up Porters margins today. I’m fairly confident the provisionals remaining here will favor Porter, but until I see tomorrow’s vote count, I’m keeping the same rating I’ve had all week. Lean D

Since it’s down to two races here, and I have nothing better to do, if you have a city or lower tier race you’d like me to look into within Orange County, drop me a line, and I may write something up. See you back here at 5PM tomorrow!

**Extras**

Shout out to user KyleJorgy, who made some great graphics on how the vote change has progressed in these districts. I thought I’d throw a few in here from CA-45, as they really show how quickly Porter went from being down by 6K to slightly leading. (Note: These don’t incorporate today’s numbers, but are up to date as up Nov 13)