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It’s a long-developing gap that bolsters Republican control of Congress and most statehouses. It could play into the hands of Republican Trump, whose path to victory depends on whites drawn to his blistering critiques of elitism and “political correctness” in the America of Clinton and Barack Obama.

White men still make up about a third of the typical presidential electorate and will be crucial to Trump’s fortunes in Rust Belt states that have seen a declining middle class. They also could tip the balance in battlegrounds like Virginia and Florida, states Obama won twice.

Saunders says both parties play “wedge and identity politics” on many issues. Republicans emphasized “law and order” at their Cleveland convention, while Democrats on Tuesday welcomed “Mothers of the Movement,” black moms whose sons died at the hands of police. Republicans heard National Rifle Association leaders; Democrats are featuring families of gun violence victims.

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman described “a cultural gap,” with both parties playing to their advantages. But Saunders says Trump taps into a “legitimate” frustration acute among small-town and rural white men whose fathers and grandfathers once helped elect Democrats.

They see Democrats up there talking about diversity and trends and what we’ll be like in 40 years. This country needs help now

“They see no opportunity, no hope,” continued Saunders, who advised John Edwards’ presidential campaigns and Jim Webb’s brief 2016 bid. “Then they see Democrats up there talking about diversity and trends and what we’ll be like in 40 years. This country needs help now.”