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Keeping it real for a minute: Who the heck knows?

Jon Jones is clearly his own worst enemy but also seems to have nine lives.

The first time Jones failed a test for steroids, he and his team were able to convince USADA it occurred due to a tainted supplement, but the organization still suspended him for one year, saying he should've done more due diligence on the erectile dysfunction pills he took.

He made the most of his return following that suspension by wrecking Daniel Cormier in their rematch at UFC 214. Order seemingly restored, Bones was once again back where he belonged—kingpin of the UFC's light heavyweight division. Having just turned 30, he was poised to have a possibly epic second half to his career.

Then, as if on cue, he failed another one, this time for the steroid turinabol.

It's too soon to know for sure how long of a suspension he'll get this time. We don't know exactly how the steroid got into his system. His team will likely have to go with another tainted supplement defense. It's strange that he passed all of his drug tests leading up to the event and then failed a regularly scheduled one after the weigh-in. Who knows what all that means.

The best-case scenario for Jones would be that he escapes with no suspension. The worst-case scenario is a four-year ban, which his coach, Mike Winkeljohn, has already said might well end Jones' career. Perhaps the most likely outcome is that Jones fetches a suspension somewhere in the middle.

No matter what official punishment is handed down, we have no idea how this latest scandal might affect Jones' state of mind.

Knowing a bit about Jones the person having followed his career for over eight years, and having lived in the same city as him (Albuquerque, New Mexico) for over five years, I can say with confidence that a big part of his identity is tied to being the baddest man on the planet.

That said, family means way more to him that many may realize. The idea of him being completely content with being a family man is not as crazy as it may sound. There's a sliver of me that could see him just walking away for good. In talking with folks around Jones, he's saved a good percentage of his money and isn't a Conor McGregor-style spender. He'd no doubt find other things to do if he quits fighting. Perhaps he'd even be more at peace as a human being, removing cage-fighting from the equation.

All of that said, I'd put the chances of Jones fighting again at 75/25 if it's a two-year suspension and 50/50 if it's a four-year suspension. I don't think he'll want to leave his career on this latest sour note, if he can help it.

—Brian Oswald