Will involve India and Pakistan but questions remain on their role and context

President Donald Trump will brainstorm on Friday with his national security team on a fresh strategy to break the logjam in Afghanistan, where 8,400 U.S soldiers are currently deployed. The meeting at the Camp David Presidential retreat in Maryland, 100 km north-west of the U.S capital, will discuss “the South Asia strategy,” the White House said in a statement. “We are not winning in Afghanistan,” Defence Secretary James Mattis had told a Congressional hearing in June.

A South Asia strategy to deal with the Afghanistan crisis will involve India and Pakistan, but questions remain on the role and context of both countries. India has been involved in the reconstruction and stabilisation efforts in Afghanistan and a Pentagon report recently described India as Kabul’s “most reliable regional partner.” However, India is strongly opposed to any discussion on Jammu and Kashmir in the context of Afghanistan, as being demanded by Pakistan.

Afghanistan-Kashmir intertwined: Pak

Pakistan has been trying to impress upon America that Kashmir and Afghanistan are part of the same problem and solution to one is impossible without the other. “Road to peace in Kabul lies in Kashmir…you can have peace in Kabul and let Kashmir burn? That is not going to happen,” Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed had told think-tank gatherings in the U.S capitals several times in the last one year.

A new strategy was to be in place by mid-July, but Mr. Trump shot down the plan formulated by Mr. Mattis and National Security Adviser H R McMaster, which proposed to raise troop levels in Afghanistan by a four or five thousand. The President reportedly demanded to know why America has not won after 16 years of fighting, how and when did they plan to win. Mr. Trump was unsatisfied with the explanation and the plan has been on hold since then. Meanwhile, White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon has floated a proposal to hire a private security firm that will employ mercenaries to fight the war in Afghanistan, overseen by an “American viceroy.”

Complete pullout not ruled out

Subsequently, reports have also emerged that the President could consider a complete withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, which is contradictory to the position that Mr. Mattis has taken publicly, to stay engaged for an open-ended timeline. The new strategy won’t work “unless we have a higher degree of cooperation from Pakistan,” U.S Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford had told a Congressional hearing last month. The key player in the regional approach is neighbouring Pakistan, Mr. Dunford has said.

The U.S. approach to resolving the Afghanistan situation must be narrowly focussed on the conflict and leave out other regional questions, Ashley J. Tellis, the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, had argued in a report U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Changing Strategies, Preserving Gains”, he co-authored with another expert Jeff Eggers. They argued that “regional options — resolving the India-Pakistan conflict, creating a neutral Afghanistan, or squeezing Pakistan — are too difficult to rely on alone.”

Stephen J. Hadley, former National Security Adviser to George W Bush, travelled to Pakistan and Afghanistan earlier this year, and has been arguing for a “regional approach” that takes on board Pakistan’s strategic concerns. In his latest Washington Post op-ed timed to coincide with the meeting on Friday, he said on Thursday: “This means helping to restart a discreet dialogue between India and Pakistan on issues of mutual concern…At the same time Pakistan must show progress in cutting off terrorist activity against India and Afghanistan, including by the Haqqani network.”