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It ain’t over till it’s over. But if the consensus of polls can be believed, the wailing and gnashing of teeth among Conservatives and New Democrats, which has been developing privately in recent days, will soon become public. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, meanwhile, look poised for victory —­ a stunning comeback for a party and a leader who just a few months ago had been all but written off. It is, in so many different ways, Stephen Harper’s worst nightmare.

How did it come to this, will be the question many Tories ask themselves. In truth, it’s no great mystery. The inflection points, as we look back at the 78-day span of this monster campaign, are not hard to spot. Neither are the pivotal trends and surprises, of which there were three. In every case, the Conservatives contributed to their own demise. To say they shot themselves in the foot is putting it mildly.

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First, the mood for a turn was everywhere overwhelming ­— as many as 70 per cent of Canadians, in poll after poll, expressed a desire for change. Change in what? Not so much policy, whether economic, foreign or other. Despite the blandishments of those afflicted with Harper Derangement Syndrome, the country has not been on a disastrous course these past ten years. There is no dawning dictatorship. The abuses and missteps on Harper’s watch occurred even as the country trundled along in peaceful, prosperous, moderate fashion, relatively speaking.