“Boxing the Republicans into a South-dominated party is very good strategy, because the more you reduce the Republican Party, the more conservative and reactionary it will become, and thus less attractive to moderates,” said Tom Schaller, a University of Maryland-Baltimore County professor and the author of Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South. “The Midwest and the Northeast are the places where there are still remnants of old-line Rockefeller Republicans. And these are the places where the Democrats will build durable majorities.”

Aubertine, of Watertown, won a 2008 special election for a Senate district based an hour or so from Ottawa, Canada, that covers all of two counties in McHugh’s district and part of a third.



But even an Aubertine victory could be a net loss for national Democrats. New York is set to lose at least one seat in the reapportionment of congressional districts after next year’s census, and his influence in the state Senate may be more valuable to the party than an extra vote in the U.S. House that could disappear after the 2012 election.



For that reason, several Democrats said they thought it was unlikely that Aubertine would run.



“It’s too early to comment right now,” said Aubertine’s spokesman, Drew Mangione. “The senator is committed to his work in the New York state Senate.”



A slew of Republican names also surfaced Tuesday: Assembly members Will Barclay, who lost to Aubertine for the Senate seat, Janet L. Duprey and Dede Scozzafava; Terry Gach, vice president of institutional advancement at the Trudeau Institute; Michael F. Joyce, the head of Hargrave Custom Yachts; former state Sen. Jim Wright; and Franklin County District Attorney Derek Champagne.

Avid crier, John Boehner, was at it again: sobbing when the statue-- or, in his case, idol-- of Ronald Reagan was unveiled in Statuary Hall this morning. Or maybe his mind was just wandering towards what today'stermed the stealth war to keep moving the GOP along the road to oblivion as a serious national party. It's not so much that the wing-nuts will miss John McHugh (R-NY) or even the likelihood of being embarrassed again when they lose a seat-- after a costly battle they can't afford-- with a tremendous GOP registration advantage (120,887 Democrats to 167,272 Republicans). Obama won the district 52-47% last November.The NRCC, sounding a little paranoid, blames the whole thing in Rahm Emanuel. And here I thought I was the only one that blamed everything on him! Last nightput out an analysis of the likely contenders to replace McHugh. State Sen. Darrel Aubertine is being mentioned most but if he abandoned his just-won Senate seat, it could through NY Democrats into turmoil because of the closeness of the numbers in Albany. Syracuse-based attorney Daniel French, a former aide to Daniel Patrick Moynihan is another possible candidate, as are 2008 nominee Michael P. Oot, state party Chairwoman June O’Neill and John Rhodes, who considered a 2008 run.With a bunch like that in the wings, it's no wonder Boehner was weeping-- especially with the best of the lot, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava thinking about running as a Democrat ! Someone should get him and Glenn Beck together.

Labels: Boehner, Darrel Aubertine, Dede Scozzafava, John McHugh, NY-23, special elections