Great hitters and great pitchers are similar in a sense. Great hitters learn how to work a count into their favor, while luring a pitcher into throwing what they want. On the other hand, great pitchers have a knack for getting ahead of batters while getting batters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. This can lead to many favorable outcomes. I want to look specifically at a matchup that will occur this Wednesday. The Angels make the trip to the Southside of Chicago and this game will feature arguably one of the best hitters in Mike Trout versus one of the best strikeout pitchers in Chris Sale.

Discipline is defined as the practice of training people to obey rules or a code of behavior, using punishment to correct disobedience. Is there a better way to describe giving up a home run vs. a strikeout and hitting a home run vs. striking out than discipline? Plate discipline has many different statistical categories. This week I want to concentrate on five categories: swings at pitches outside of the zone (O-Swing%), swing at pitches inside of the zone (Z-Swing%), Swing%, contact on pitches outside of the zone (O-Contact%), contact on pitches inside of the zone (Z-Contact%). These measurements, and outcomes, are one of the key elements to any scouting reports whether they are for hitters or pitchers.

2015 were big seasons for both Mike Trout and Chris Sale. Trout finished second in the AL MVP. Since 2012, Trout has finished second or better (2nd in [2012, 2013, & 2015] and 1st [2014]) in AL MVP voting. What’s even more amazing is he doesn’t turn 25 until the first week of August. Since 2012, Chris Sale has finished in the top-10 for AL strikeout leaders (9th [2012], 3rd [2013], 10th [2014], 1st [2015]). It’s easy to see why they are easily one of the top outfielders and pitchers drafted first, in fantasy baseball, each season. And with their age (Trout 24 & Sale 27) this trend should continue for many seasons to come. In 13 career at-bats, Trout is 3-13 (.231) against Sale with one double, one home run, and four RBI. Their matchups have included three walks and three strikeouts.

If we look at last season, Trout and Sale were both among the leaders in terms of discipline. While Trout may have had a higher swing percentage outside of the zone, he had a better contact percentage (80.1%) than five of the top-10 hitters in terms of discipline. Dexter Fowler tied with a 80.1%. Of the top-10 Zobrist made the best contact with a staggering rate of 88.8%. Only ten players were higher than Zobrist: Michael Brantley (92.6%), Daniel Murphy (91.8%), Ben Revere (90.1%), Nick Markakis (89.9%), Jose Altuve (89.4%), Angel Pagan (89.2%), Ender Inciarte (89.2%), Martin Prado (89.2%), Ian Kinsler (89.1%), and Andrelton Simmons (89.1%). Have you noticed the common theme? The players that had the highest contact percentage were prototypical “gap-to-gap” hitters. Of the top-25, in terms of contact percentage, only two players hit 20 or more home runs: Albert Pujols (40) and Josh Reddick (20). I’m sure many of you could guess, but Pablo Sandoval takes the cake for the worse swing percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone with a staggering 46.8%. Nearly half of the pitches he saw outside of the zone he swung at!

What does this tell us about Mike Trout? He rarely swings at pitches outside of the strike zone. However, he’s a very selective hitter. Yes, he’s had two seasons with over 150 strikeouts, but he also had the second and third highest walk totals of his young career. Overall, he swung at 39.7% of all fastballs he saw which was tenth most in MLB. In terms of laying off breaking pitches, Trout was among the leaders of the pack. He has such a great eye at the plate that he’s figured out, at an early stage of his career, how to manipulate the strike zone and lay off pitches he finds unfavorable. While there’s no questioning Trout’s ability in the batter’s box and defensively, I’d love to see Trout steal more bases. However, this becomes more and more unlikely as the Angels rely on him, as a middle-of-the-order hitter, to drive in runs.

As we’ve seen in the hitters chart above, a lot of the more disciplined hitters are line-drive hitters along with players I deem “all-around” such as Votto, Goldschmidt, McCutchen, and Trout. Now, let’s focus in on the pitching side of the game.

Chris Sale was a top-10 pitcher in regards to getting batters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Even then, he was just shy of top-10, coming in at 11, in terms of the least allowed contact for pitches outside of the zone. Players ahead of Sale were: Clayton Kershaw (46.9%), Francisco Liriano (46.9%), Tyson Ross (48.0%), Chris Archer (50.9%), Garret Richards (52.1%), Carlos Carrasco (52.7%), Cole Hamels (52.8%), James Shields (53.4%), Corey Kluber (54.2%), and Max Scherzer (54.7%). Sale was tied with Yordano Ventura with 54.8%. The relation here is that nearly all of the pitchers had league-leading strikeout rates. The pitcher that led with the highest contact percentage of pitches outside of the zone was Mark Buehrle at 82.0%. Like many young pitchers, Sale has a dynamite fastball that is his bread and butter pitch. He gets great sweeping action on his slider and can rack up strikeouts, ahead in the count, with batters chasing it outside-of-the-zone.

What should we expect when Trout meets Sale on Wednesday? While both Trout and Sale were league leaders in terms of discipline, they both know what to expect. Sale is a hard-thrower that brings one of the best fourseam fastballs. What makes his pitch so effective is its heavy sinking action and tail. However, Mike Trout has established himself as one of the premier low-ball hitters in the league. He’s always looking for a pitch down and in, but he’s had trouble in 2016. I attribute this to pitchers’ elevating their fastball and challenging Trout to swing. Up to this point, Trout has accumulated 13 strikeouts in 43 at-bats (30%). One of the interesting statistics for Sale is that he’s had the highest average against (.333) to cleanup, number six, and number eight hitters. The two home runs he’s given up have been to cleanup and number six hitters. Sale does have a tendency to surrender hittable outside-the-zone pitches. His slider has great depth, but below average velocity. This could be trouble has Trout feasts on pitches low in the zone. Sale’s changeup will be a non-factor as it generates fewer swings/misses compared to other pitchers’. Prediction: Trout goes 1-3 with a single, ground out, and strikeout.

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Major League Fantasy Baseball Weekly: Join Lou Landers and Kyle Amore live on Thursday April 21st, 2016 from 8-10pm EST for episode #10 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Weekly. We will discuss player positions and help prepare you for the coming draft season. This will run every Thursday as a live broadcast that will take live callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. Our Thursday night show will do some weekly recaps, player updates, and preview the coming week end games.

Our guests this week are Lenny Melnick and Joe Iannone. Lenny Melnick is a fantasy baseball legend and a pioneer in the business. He is credited with starting the very first fantasy baseball show in 1993 along with Irwin Zwilling and Sandy Stolle. He also has a website which you can find at lennymelnickfantasysports.com where you can find all his work, and it is a great overall free community. Joe is a veteran writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com, a tenured fantasy baseball expert, and a big part of our community.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

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Major League Fantasy Baseball Show: Join Corey D Roberts on Sunday April 24th, 2016 from 7-9pm EST for this week’s episode of the Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show. We are a live call in radio show so we encourage callers at 323-870-4395 . Press 1 to speak with the host. Every week we will do a quick recap of Fr-Sat games, and a forecast of Monday through Thursday’s games.

Our guests this week are Ron Shandler, Joe Iannone, and Andy Macuga. Ron is a legend and pioneer in the fantasy baseball world. He has been part of fantasy baseball world since 1986, and is a member of the FSTA Hall of Fame. He is currently a writer with ESPN, and runs ronshandler.com. Joe is a veteran writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com as well as a tenured fantasy baseball expert. Andy is the head baseball coach at Borrego Springs H.S. in Southern California, and a veteran owner in MLFS leagues.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

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