As Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy squared off in the final debate of their Florida Senate race, the discussion turned to the Syrian civil war. Rubio, a former presidential candidate and member of the Senate intelligence committee, challenged his rival’s understanding of the factions on the ground. Murphy, a two-term congressman, reverted to a familiar line.



“It just goes back to the same point,” he said, “that Senator Rubio continues to support Donald Trump, and it is shameful that he stands there with him.”

The audience laughed, faintly, at one of nearly 20 mentions of the Republican presidential nominee during the one-hour debate. When Murphy next mentioned Trump, Rubio was quick with a rejoinder based on a famous Joe Biden rebuke of Rudy Giuliani: “A noun, a verb and Donald Trump: that’s his answer to everything.”

The race in Florida, among the most closely watched in the country, could help determine whether Republicans keep control of the Senate. Democrats see the vote as a referendum on Trump. But Murphy’s mentions of the businessman underscored the potential limitations of using the top of the ticket to mount attacks down the ballot.

Murphy has questioned how Rubio can endorse Trump, whom Rubio has called “a con man”, untrustworthy with the nuclear codes, and “the most vulgar person ever to aspire to the presidency”. In recent weeks, polls have given the Democrat hope, in part because Trump is trailing Hillary Clinton in Florida by around three points. But with nine days left before Election Day, Rubio is about seven points up on Trump in the state.

‘Less than ideal choices’

This week, both candidates spoke to the Guardian. “I’ve said all along that these are less than ideal choices before us,” Rubio said, “and that’s why we need a senator willing to stand up to the next president no matter who it is – even if it’s from your own party.”

Rubio was speaking on the day the FBI director, James Comey, said the agency was reviewing emails that might be pertinent to the closed investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server while secretary of state.

“The question now is will Patrick Murphy still 100% trust Hillary Clinton, as he has said in the past,” he said.

Murphy, who spoke earlier in the week after appearing with Clinton at a rally in Coconut Creek, said there was no comparison between the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees.

“I’m grateful that Senator Rubio’s connecting me to Secretary Clinton,” Murphy said. “You look at what she’s been fighting for her entire life, and you contrast that to Donald Trump. You talk about a contrast of both qualifications and temperament for who our next world leader is going to be.”

Citing Trump’s litany of inflammatory comments – against immigrants, Muslims, women, the Gold Star parents of an Iraq war hero, prisoners of war and more – Murphy said it was “appalling to a lot of Floridians that Marco Rubio continues to stand by Donald Trump’s side”.

“A lot of people had the courage to stand up to Donald Trump,” he added, noting the flurry of Republicans who withdrew their support earlier this month after a video was unearthed from 2005 in which the former reality TV star bragged about groping and kissing women without consent.

Rubio, despite condemning Trump’s comments, was not among them. He has kept Trump at a distance, however, making no campaign appearances with the nominee despite his frequent presence in Florida.

Hillary Clinton campaigns with Patrick Murphy in Coconut Creek. Photograph: Larry Marano/REX/Shutterstock

Rubio’s rationale rests primarily in the balance of the supreme court, where the vacancy left by Antonin Scalia remains. In the primary, Rubio doubted whether Trump would nominate a conservative. He told the Guardian a list of potential appointees released by Trump was “encouraging”.

“We’ll have to wait and see who wins the election and whether he’ll actually do that,” Rubio said. “But they’ll be held to the same standard, whether it’s a Republican president or a Democrat president … I’m looking for people that will apply the constitution according to the original intent of the words of the constitution.”

Rubio also expressed confidence that he would be judged on his own record. Saying his opponent lacked any legislative accomplishments despite having served in Congress for four years, Rubio touted his own work on issues such as human trafficking, sanctions against Venezuela and Hezbollah, and veterans affairs.

Asked if he would be willing to work with Clinton, he stopped short of naming potential areas of agreement. “I have a record of working with people across the aisle, and I’ll work with anyone if they’re pursuing ideas that I think are good for America,” he said.

Murphy, whose time in Congress has been been spent in the minority, denied he had little to show. He listed funding for the Everglades, preventing cuts to a key component of Medicare, and securing lower flood insurance rates, and stated his commitment to issues such as climate change, equal pay and raising the minimum wage.

He has nonetheless struggled with a lack of name recognition, compounded by limited resources after national Democratic groups withdrew millions of dollars in reserved ad spending.

The decision has drawn criticism from some observers, for its apparent abandonment of a race many believe is winnable. Others complain of a missed opportunity to deliver a fatal blow to Rubio, whom many believe will make another run for the presidency, potentially challenging Clinton in 2020.

But some involved in Democrats’ efforts to retake the Senate defended their move, citing Florida’s expensive media markets in comparison to battlegrounds such as Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, where money can prove more influential.

“I do think the threat of him running for president in 2020 is real,” a Senate Democratic strategist said of Rubio. “But our goal is to take back the Senate and win the White House right now. We’re not running a campaign for 2020.”

‘The height of cynicism’

Rubio and Murphy meet to debate at Broward College in Davie, earlier this week. Photograph: Wilfredo Lee/AP

Another Democratic strategist familiar with the Florida Senate race said internal polling conducted by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Clinton campaign showed Murphy trailing Rubio by high single digits. On Thursday, FiveThirtyEight gave Rubio an 81% chance of defeating Murphy, finding the sitting senator ahead in 48 of 50 public polls. On Sunday, two new polls showed Rubio up by eight and nine points.

Pressure to reinvest in the race did pay some dividends last week, when a Super Pac affiliated with Senate minority leader Harry Reid confirmed it was transferring a seven-figure sum to a pro-Murphy super pac in Florida. Nonetheless, Murphy has largely had to rely on earned media coverage and high-profile surrogates.

Among the most vocal has been Barack Obama, who called Rubio’s support for Trump “the height of cynicism”.

“How can you call him a ‘con artist’ and ‘dangerous’ and object to all the controversial things he says and then say, ‘But I’m still gonna vote for him?’ C’mon, man!” Obama said at a campaign stop in Miami Gardens.

“That’s the sign of somebody who will say anything, do anything, pretend to be anybody, just to get elected. And you know what? If you’re willing to be anybody just to be somebody, then you don’t have the leadership that Florida needs in the United States Senate.”

Clinton has also urged voters to back Murphy and made a familiar connection: “Unlike his opponent, Patrick Murphy has not been afraid to stand up to Donald Trump and his dangerous, divisive campaign.”

Such high-profile support, however, may prove too little, too late. For one thing, Rubio has a solid base of support among Hispanic voters, many of whom identify with the Spanish-speaking son of Cuban immigrants and in 2012 accounted for 17% of Florida’s electorate.

Murphy ramped up his outreach to the Hispanic community – somewhat belatedly, some say. In doing so, he sought to revive Rubio’s involvement in a comprehensive immigration reform bill in 2013, noting that the senator backed away from the issue when faced with backlash from conservatives.

It has been an uphill battle. In Miami’s Little Havana recently, at one of Clinton’s 81 Florida field offices, volunteers labored to get out the vote. Dozens of voters, mostly Latino, entered and left the building.

Among them were Azalia and Lucia Rodriguez. Originally from Nicaragua, they were motivated in part by resentment of Trump and said they would vote for Clinton. They did not support Rubio, they said. But they also did not plan to vote for Murphy.

Their reason? They hadn’t heard of him.