Jim Michaels

USA TODAY

Analysts say military does not want to engage protesters

Some Ukrainian officers have trained with U.S. military

Military has been moving from conscript to volunteer force

WASHINGTON – President Obama has urged Ukraine's armed forces to remain out of the violence in that country, amid fears the crisis is spiraling further out of control.

But analysts say Ukraine's embattled President Viktor Yanukovich might have trouble getting his armed forces to obey orders to crack down on the protests at the center of the country's growing political crisis.

"It is by no means clear that the army would fight against its own people," said Stephen Blank, a senior fellow with the American Foreign Policy Council.

Ukraine's military leadership has remained largely apolitical and would be wary of getting involved in an internal political crisis. "I think the military wants no part of this," said James Howcroft, a retired Marine intelligence officer and military attaché with extensive experience in the region. "It's a no-win situation."

Even if some commanders did agree to enter the fray, the military would likely fragment and some forces might go over to the opposition, said Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Still, there are growing fears that Yanukovich may try to turn to his military out of desperation as his Interior Ministry forces have had trouble controlling protests that have turned increasingly violent.

Earlier this week Yanukovich fired the head of the country's armed forces, Col Gen Volodymyr Zamana, which analysts say stemmed from concerns about Zamana's loyalty to the government.

"It's clear they haven't wanted to go into the streets," Blank said. "That's why Yanukovich sacked the head of the armed forces."

Worried about the growing violence, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel recently attempted to call his Ukrainian counterpart, acting Defense Minister Pavlo Lebedev, but he and other military officials in Ukraine have been "unresponsive" to the requests to talk, said Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman.

The Pentagon said Ukraine's armed forces have so far been limited to protecting military installations.

The bulk of the government forces involved in the fight have been special riot police called Berkut, which are under the command of the Interior Ministry. The government only has about 3,000 to 4,000 Berkut troops and beyond that must rely mostly on local police who are not trained to deal with civil unrest.

Ukraine's military had been aspiring toward membership in NATO and has been making efforts to modernize its forces along the lines of Western European armies. They have been taking steps to transition from a conscript army to a volunteer force.

Ukraine's military had dispatched forces to Iraq under coalition command and officers have trained at U.S. military schools, said Steven Pifer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

He said they would have been exposed to concepts important to Western militaries, such as the need to remain independent of politics.