Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Quite a "legacy"

Mark Dantonio has pretty much ruined it for all other coaches taking on rebuilding jobs. Rebuilding is a difficult thing. But while there have been setbacks in Dantonio's seven years, they have been minimal and easy to explain. Dantonio's tenure has been as smooth and forward-moving as you'll ever see. -- The 2014 Michigan State preview

I began last season's Michigan State preview with this quote, and with good reason. What he had done in so seamlessly building a power in East Lansing had been stunning. I should have stopped there.

We'll call this a legacy season, likely one without any newfound achievements but one that further burnishes the résumé. Win another 10-plus games, go to another big bowl and hope Ohio State loses enough talent after the season that you can strike again

The short version (Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 7.8



Projected S&P+ ranking: 22 (3 in Big Ten)



5-year recruiting ranking: 21 (3 in Big Ten)



Biggest strength: The backbone of the defense -- tackle Malik McDowell, MLB Riley Bullough, safeties Montae Nicholson and Demetrious Cox -- is absurdly good.



Biggest question mark: Does State have a QB? And if so, does State have any big-play receivers?



Biggest 2016 game: Michigan (Oct. 29). It's the first of three tossups that will determine MSU's Big Ten fate.



Summary: Last year, Michigan State needed only a little bit of good fortune to turn a reloading year into another Big Ten title run. The Spartans have plenty of questions to answer in 2016, but they have a track record, and they get Michigan and Ohio State at home. 7.8: 22 (3 in Big Ten): 21 (3 in Big Ten): The backbone of the defense -- tackle Malik McDowell, MLB Riley Bullough, safeties Montae Nicholson and Demetrious Cox -- is absurdly good.: Does State have a QB? And if so, does State have any big-play receivers?: Michigan (Oct. 29). It's the first of three tossups that will determine MSU's Big Ten fate.Last year, Michigan State needed only a little bit of good fortune to turn a reloading year into another Big Ten title run. The Spartans have plenty of questions to answer in 2016, but they have a track record, and they get Michigan and Ohio State at home.

Technically, beating the defending national champion on the road and reaching the College Football Playoff does have an impact on your legacy. But that wasn't quite what I had in mind for Dantonio and his Spartans.

Between 1956 and 2012, a span of 57 seasons, Michigan State finished sixth or better in the polls three times. From 1966 to 2012, the Spartans didn't do it at all. They've now done it for three straight seasons.

They've done it despite turnover. They've done it with good luck and bad luck, and despite Urban Meyer's overbearing presence in Columbus (and now Jim Harbaugh's in Ann Arbor), they have won two of the last three Big Ten titles. They have won two of three against Ohio State, seven of eight against Michigan, three in a row against Penn State and two of three against Nebraska.

Dantonio has built his program so thoroughly, so sturdily, that it's hard to see Sparty falling too far off-course for a while. Sure, there may be a down season here or there (and this year could be one of them), but what does "down" mean for a team that has won at least 11 games in five of the last six seasons?

In theory, 2016 could be the "legacy season" I thought last year would be, a year in which the Spartans take a step backwards but remain a step ahead of most of the conference. There are few too many questions to ask – quarterback, receiving corps, offensive line, defensive line, cornerback, special teams – and while State will almost certainly provide satisfactory answers for some of them, answer all of them will be tricky.

Still ... there's a chance they answer them all. You know it, I know it and Mark Dantonio knows it. And considering the Big Ten landscape – Ohio State is replacing even more than Michigan State, Michigan hasn't yet proven it has full-season staying power, and no one in the West is likely to play at a top-15 level – the Spartans will remain a Big Ten contender.

To reiterate, getting both Michigan and Ohio State at home is definitely worth mentioning.

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 13-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 9 | Final S&P+ Rk: 13 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 4-Sep at Western Michigan 51 37-24 W 97% 100% -1.2 -4.0 12-Sep Oregon 23 31-28 W 84% 81% +3.7 -1.0 19-Sep Air Force 63 35-21 W 78% 65% -11.6 -12.0 26-Sep Central Michigan 67 30-10 W 95% 99% -7.4 -7.0 3-Oct Purdue 93 24-21 W 71% 81% -22.2 +1.0 10-Oct at Rutgers 101 31-24 W 67% 77% -13.4 -7.5 17-Oct at Michigan 8 27-23 W 73% 32% +25.2 +12.0 24-Oct Indiana 61 52-26 W 78% 79% +13.2 +9.5 7-Nov at Nebraska 36 38-39 L 58% 34% -6.1 -7.0 14-Nov Maryland 76 24-7 W 90% 99% +3.4 +2.0 21-Nov at Ohio State 3 17-14 W 87% 64% +17.3 +16.0 28-Nov Penn State 47 55-16 W 95% 99% +32.6 +39.0 5-Dec vs. Iowa 38 16-13 W 82% 74% -4.1 -0.5 31-Dec vs. Alabama 1 0-38 L 19% 0% -27.0 -28.5

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 35.1 28 19.2 12 Points Per Game 29.8 60 21.7 25

2. Peaking in November

Sometimes a loss can be just what the doctor ordered. For a Dantonio team, that is typically the case. The Spartans haven't lost back-to-back games since 2012, and they have responded with vigor after each loss in that span. In 2013, they lost 17-13 to Notre Dame and responded with a 12-point win against a solid Iowa team on the road. They didn't lose again until the following September (Oregon 46, MSU 27) and responded to that one by winning their next six games by an average of 49-18. They lost to Ohio State in a wild affair, then finished the season by beating three straight bowl teams by an average of 39-9.

The way they were playing heading into this past November, it almost seemed like they needed a loss to get their affairs in order. After a sturdy start to the season, the Spartans hit a rough patch, barely surviving 2-10 Purdue (24-21) and 4-8 Rutgers (31-24). They beat Michigan in the luckiest of fashions and eventually pulled away from Indiana, but their form had fallen off a bit.

Then they lost to Nebraska. And all was well again. Even with quarterback Connor Cook dealing with an injury, Sparty was spectacular down the stretch.

First 4 games :

Record: 4-0 | Average percentile performance: 89% (~top 15) | Yards per play: MSU 5.7, Opp 5.7 | Average performance vs. S&P+: -4.1 PPG

: Record: 4-0 | Average percentile performance: 89% (~top 15) | Yards per play: MSU 5.7, Opp 5.7 | Average performance vs. S&P+: -4.1 PPG Next 5 games :

Record: 4-1 | Average percentile performance: 69% (~top 40) | Yards per play: MSU 6.0, Opp 5.7 | Average performance vs. S&P+: +0.7 PPG

: Record: 4-1 | Average percentile performance: 69% (~top 40) | Yards per play: MSU 6.0, Opp 5.7 | Average performance vs. S&P+: +0.7 PPG Next 4 games:

Record: 4-0 | Average percentile performance: 89% (~top 15) | Yards per play: MSU 4.8, Opp 4.6 | Average performance vs. S&P+: +12.3 PPG

It is certainly worth noting that Michigan State dodged some bullets lst year. On average interceptions make up about 22 percent of overall passes defensed (INTs + breakups); Michigan State's defense reeled in about 25 percent while opponents held onto only 11 percent.

Going by national averages, Michigan State should have intercepted about 13 passes, and its opponents should have managed 16. The real INT numbers: MSU 15, opponents eight.

That's a 10-interception net, which contributed to turnovers luck of about plus-4.5 points per game for the Spartans. Only Oklahoma State (plus-6.6), Bowling Green (plus-5.7), and Houston (plus-5.0) were higher, and in a season in which you go 6-1 in games decided by one possession, obviously that can play a huge role.

Taking this into account, MSU was only a top-15 team per S&P+, not top-five. (The as-yet-unmentioned blowout loss to Alabama in the Playoff semis obviously played a role in this lower rating, too.) And maybe the breaks are what converted this from "legacy season" to CFP run. But the level the Spartans achieved for two-thirds of the season was as high as almost anyone's. That's obviously a good sign moving forward.

Offense

Q1 Rk 75 1st Down Rk 85 Q2 Rk 70 2nd Down Rk 109 Q3 Rk 41 3rd Down Rk 68 Q4 Rk 54



Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Connor Cook 229 408 3131 24 7 56.1% 18 4.2% 7.1 Tyler O'Connor 6'3, 225 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8820 13 24 133 2 1 54.2% 2 7.7% 4.8 Damion Terry 6'3, 238 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9177 2 7 15 0 0 28.6% 1 12.5% 0.4 Brian Lewerke 6'3, 200 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8779 Messiah deWeaver 6'4, 212 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9062

3. Passing downs success is often tied to the QB

Michigan State's offense really shouldn't have worked in 2015. The Spartans were run-heavy on running downs and pass-heavy on passing downs, and relative lack of success in the former resulted in plenty of the latter. Big plays were at a minimum -- they managed just 16 gains of 30-plus yards all season, 118th in the country (despite playing a 14th game) -- which meant that just about any scoring drive was going to require at least one third-and-8 completion.

Still, the efficiency was there. For the most part, that was enough. The ground game produced very few double-digit gains but was good at picking up four or five yards on first down. And when it didn't, Cook was around to do the rest. On third-and-7 or more, Cook was an astounding 45-for-79 for 766 yards, six touchdowns, and just one interception last year; passer rating: 160.9. That's not supposed to happen. (And judging by the INT-to-PBU ratio mentioned above, it probably wouldn't happen twice.)

It probably won't happen in 2016. That's probably a little bit too much to ask of a new starter.

Then again, the likely new starter, senior Tyler O'Connor, certainly stepped up when he had the chance last year. On third-and-7 or more, he is 10-for-16 for 162 yards in his career, and while he was asked to do very little in Cook's November absence last year, he did still go 7-for-12 with a 148.1 passer rating at Ohio State in adverse weather conditions.

There's still that junior Damion Terry (who also saw snaps against OSU) or redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke could take O'Connor down during fall camp, but that appears unlikely. O'Connor has patiently waited his turn, and in minimal opportunities, he has passed his tests. And if he can provide at least a little bit of passing downs magic, the Sparty offense could click.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost LJ Scott RB 6'0, 238 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9710 147 699 11 4.8 4.9 33.3% 3 1 Madre London RB 6'1, 220 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8731 119 500 3 4.2 4.6 31.9% 0 0 Gerald Holmes RB 6'0, 220 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8568 110 540 8 4.9 3.8 41.8% 0 0 Connor Cook QB 34 173 0 5.1 4.2 38.2% 1 0 Delton Williams FB 6'1, 230 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8682 26 56 1 2.2 0.9 23.1% 0 0 R.J. Shelton WR 5'11, 205 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8609 24 127 0 5.3 4.4 45.8% 3 1 Damion Terry QB 6'3, 238 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9177 20 80 0 4.0 3.3 35.0% 1 1 Tyler O'Connor QB 6'3, 225 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8820 12 56 0 4.7 1.8 50.0% 1 0 Aaron Burbridge WR 11 56 0 5.1 3.0 54.5% 2 0 Phillip-Michael Williams RB 4 19 0 4.8 3.0 25.0% 1 1 Macgarrett Kings Jr. WR 4 15 0 3.8 1.0 50.0% 1 1 Trevon Pendleton FB Matt Sokol FB 6'5, 250 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8600

















4. Wanted: Big plays

Even if O'Connor is solid on passing downs, you still don't want to go to that well too often. And if you're not producing big plays, that means you have to execute well for eight to 10 plays at a time to put points on the board. MSU should again be efficient, but that's still a lot to ask.

To the extent that MSU produced big plays last year, a lot of them came from Aaron Burbridge and Macgarrett Kings Jr., who combined to average 14.2 yards per catch. They're both gone, while most of last year's efficiency/possession options return. Of Cook's four primary options, senior R.J. Shelton had the highest success rate of the bunch, and he and tight ends Josiah Price and Jamal Lyles should give O'Connor (or whoever) some nice security-blanket options. Still, the occasional 30-yarder would be great.

Meanwhile, last year's names are this year's names in the run game. Current sophomores LJ Scott and Madre London and junior Gerald Holmes combined for 1,739 rushing yards last year, albeit at just 4.6 yards per carry. They were more or less interchangeable, though Holmes was more efficient and Scott and London showed a bit more pop. At the end of the regular season, Scott had emerged as the preferable option; he carried 22 times against Iowa. But while those carries didn't go very far, they at least set up mostly third-and-manageable situations.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP Aaron Burbridge WR-X 146 85 1258 58.2% 34.1% 8.6 45.2% 50.0% 1.61 Macgarrett Kings Jr. SLOT 83 40 519 48.2% 19.4% 6.3 45.8% 32.5% 1.85 R.J. Shelton WR-Z 5'11, 205 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8609 64 43 503 67.2% 15.0% 7.9 50.0% 51.6% 1.40 Josiah Price TE 6'4, 260 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8725 39 23 267 59.0% 9.1% 6.8 41.0% 46.2% 1.39 Paul Lang TE 16 11 129 68.8% 3.7% 8.1 43.8% 56.2% 1.37 Jamal Lyles TE 6'3, 265 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8927 15 8 133 53.3% 3.5% 8.9 46.7% 53.3% 1.66 Gerald Holmes RB 6'0, 220 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8568 12 10 92 83.3% 2.8% 7.7 50.0% 50.0% 1.49 DeAnthony Arnett SLOT 10 6 106 60.0% 2.3% 10.6 30.0% 60.0% 1.76 Monty Madaris WR-Z 6'1, 202 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9100 8 2 47 25.0% 1.9% 5.9 62.5% 12.5% 3.57 AJ Troup WR-X 8 2 28 25.0% 1.9% 3.5 75.0% 25.0% 1.45 LJ Scott RB 6'0, 238 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9710 8 3 15 37.5% 1.9% 1.9 25.0% 12.5% 1.47 Trevon Pendleton FB 6 4 94 66.7% 1.4% 15.7 100.0% 66.7% 2.34 Felton Davis III WR-X 6'4, 198 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8717 4 2 50 50.0% 0.9% 12.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.43 Dylan Chmura TE 6'4, 256 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.7941 Edward Barksdale III WR-X 6'2, 200 Sr. NR NR Darrell Stewart Jr. SLOT 6'1, 208 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8585 Donnie Corley WR-Z 6'3, 185 Fr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9467 Justin Layne WR 6'3, 170 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9195

Cam Chambers WR 6'3, 207 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9103

Trishton Jackson WR 6'3, 190 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9134



Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Jack Allen C 12 47 2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-Big Ten Jack Conklin LT 12 38 2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-Big Ten Brian Allen C 6'2, 303 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8915 12 13 2015 2nd All-Big Ten Donavon Clark RG 14 33 Kodi Kieler RT 6'6, 310 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8382 11 18 Benny McGowan LG 6'3, 327 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8723 8 8 Dennis Finley LT 6'6, 282 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8913 1 1 Miguel Machado RG 6'6, 302 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8271 0 0 David Beedle LT 6'5, 310 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8438 0 0 Brandon Clemons RG 6'3, 303 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8747 0 0 Devyn Salmon C 6'1, 315 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8225 0 0 Nick Padla RG 6'6, 302 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8256 0 0 Chase Gianacakos RT 6'6, 301 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8432 0 0 Noah Listermann RT 6'7, 316 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8751



Tyler Higby LG 6'4, 318 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8631



Cole Chewins LT 6'7, 265 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8195





5. Injuries hurt in the present tense

It's a miracle MSU was as efficient as it was considering a) the predictability of the play-calling, b) the youth of the running back corps, and c) the shuffling that had to go on up front. Only one lineman managed to start in all 14 games, and both All-American Jacks -- center Allen and tackle Conklin -- missed two games each. But even if second-level opportunities were rare, MSU still converted as well as anyone in short-yardage situations and did a reasonable job of preventing leaks in the backfield.

Last year's shuffling could be this year's savior. Allen (a Piesman finalist), Conklin and 14-gamer Donavon Clark are gone, but there's still a large base of returning experience. Four others with starting experience return, and all of them are juniors and seniors who have been around for a while. Continuity is strong here: There is a large batch of sophomores and redshirt freshmen waiting their turn when these juniors and seniors are gone. And it's not hard to assume that if there is a drop-off in the quality of blocking, it's a small one.

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Defense

Q1 Rk 22 1st Down Rk 21 Q2 Rk 9 2nd Down Rk 44 Q3 Rk 63 3rd Down Rk 12 Q4 Rk 37



Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Shilique Calhoun DE 14 35.5 5.1% 15.0 10.5 0 3 1 0 Malik McDowell NT 6'6, 280 Jr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9843 14 31.0 4.4% 13.0 4.5 1 0 2 0 Lawrence Thomas DE 14 24.5 3.5% 5.0 3.0 0 5 0 0 Joel Heath DT 12 22.0 3.1% 5.5 2.0 0 1 1 0 Demetrius Cooper DE 6'5, 252 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8603 13 16.5 2.4% 6.5 5.0 0 0 2 0 Craig Evans DT

14 15.0 2.1% 3.5 1.0 0 0 0 0 Damon Knox DT 14 10.0 1.4% 1.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 Evan Jones DE 6'5, 246 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8530 13 4.5 0.6% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Kevin Williams

(Nebraska) DT 6'2, 275 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8631 8 1.5 0.2% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 1 Gabe Sherrod

(Delaware St.) DE 6'4, 255 Sr. NR NR 11 54.5 8.7% 25.0 8.0 0 1 0 0 Enoch Smith Jr. NT 6'2, 294 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8777 Robert Bowers DE 6'4, 256 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8519 Kyonta Stallworth NT 6'3, 279 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9199 Raequan Williams DT 6'4, 307 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9146 Cassius Peat NT 6'3, 270 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8795 Justice Alexander DE 6'5, 243 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8482 Josh King DE 6'6, 230 Fr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9524 Auston Robertson DE 6'5, 260 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9495 Mike Panasiuk DT 6'3, 305 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8913 Naquan Jones DT 6'4, 320 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9151 Mufi Hunt DE 6'6, 255 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8560

6. A test of recruiting

Eighth, second, second, 22nd, 12th. That's Michigan State's Def. S&P+ for each of the past five seasons. The Spartans lost renowned defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi to the Pitt head coaching job in 2015 and actually rose 10 spots in the rankings.

Dantonio has had a top-50 defense every year he's been in East Lansing, and he's had a top-22 or better defense in six of nine seasons. That sets a pretty clear bar. But if MSU is going to hit that mark for the seventh time in 2016, it's going to require a lot of young guys making immediate marks up front.

Only six teams ranked in the top 20 in both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate last season: Air Force, Alabama, Boston College, Clemson, Florida, and Michigan State. As the Spartans worked through some issues in the secondary, the line was the rock. And now five of last year's top seven tacklers on the line are gone.

Granted, the two returning are quite strong. Former blue-chipper Malik McDowell could very well end up an All-American in 2016, and end Demetrius Cooper was dynamite in a backup role. Of his 16.5 tackles, 6.5 were behind the line; he had five sacks and two forced fumbles and could quite conceivably replicate the production of departed Shiilque Calhoun.

Still, State played with a rotation of about seven to eight guys in 2015. Only two returnees are proven. Some combination of seniors Evan Jones and Kevin Williams (a Nebraska grad transfer), sophomores Enoch Smith Jr. and Robert Bowers, and a host of four-star redshirt freshmen and true freshmen will have to play at a high level. Players like tackles Raequan Williams and Kyonta Stallworth and ends Josh King and Auston Robertson could make an immediate difference.

Actually, change "could" to "must."

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Riley Bullough MIKE 6'2, 230 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8700 14 77.0 11.0% 7.5 4.0 2 2 2 1 Darien Harris STAR 14 66.0 9.4% 9.0 0.0 0 3 0 0 Jon Reschke SAM 6'2, 225 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9194 14 53.0 7.6% 5.5 2.0 0 2 0 0 Ed Davis (2014) SAM 6'3, 225 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8600 13 44.5 7.6% 12.0 7.0 0 2 1 0 Chris Frey SAM 6'2, 222 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8597 14 17.5 2.5% 5.0 2.5 0 0 0 0 Shane Jones MIKE 6'1, 230 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9030 13 17.5 2.5% 1.5 0.0 0 0 2 0 Andrew Dowell STAR 6'0, 217 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8894 13 15.5 2.2% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 1 T.J. Harrell STAR 6'1, 205 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8680 10 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Byron Bullough MIKE 6'1, 224 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8763 Tyriq Thompson SAM 6'1, 225 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8865 Demetric Vance SAM 6'2, 193 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9100 Kenney Lyke SAM 6'2, 185 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8881



















7. Too many linebackers, not enough snaps

It helps to have a linebacking corps so capable of cleaning up messes. Despite the loss of Ed Davis to injury, the MSU linebacking corps was still a strength in 2015; now Davis rejoins a unit that almost has too many guys to play. Riley Bullough is a hell of a defensive quarterback, and with potential stars in the junior, sophomore, and freshman classes, this unit is loaded for years to come. Hell, when Bullough runs out of eligibility after 2016, there's even another Bullough (Byron) waiting to take his place.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Montae Nicholson BS 6'2, 220 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9174 14 67.5 9.7% 2.5 0 3 2 1 0 Demetrious Cox FS 6'1, 198 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9225 14 63.5 9.1% 2 0 3 7 0 1 Arjen Colquhoun CB 14 38.0 5.4% 1.5 1 2 10 2 0 Darian Hicks CB 5'10, 180 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8628 11 25.5 3.6% 0.5 0 0 3 0 0 Grayson Miller BS 6'3, 212 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8449 12 20.0 2.9% 1 0 1 0 0 0 Jermaine Edmondson CB

14 19.5 2.8% 2.5 0 0 3 0 0 RJ Williamson FS 6 17.5 2.5% 2 0 2 1 0 1 Vayante Copeland CB 6'0, 197 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8885 2 6.5 0.9% 2 0 1 1 0 0 Khari Willis BS 5'10, 210 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8522 9 6.5 0.9% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Matt Morrissey FS 6'2, 201 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8432 12 4.0 0.6% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tyson Smith CB 5'10, 173 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8805 7 3.5 0.5% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Jalen Watts-Jackson FS 5'11, 186 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8241 7 3.5 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 1 Mark Meyers









6 1.5 0.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0 David Dowell FS 6'0, 193 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8933 Josh Butler CB 5'11, 173 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8912 Kaleel Gaines CB 6'0, 187 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8550



















8. Got corners?

The calling card of a Dantonio defense is the willingness to risk big plays in the name of turnovers and three-and-outs. State wants to achieve high defensive efficiency, even if the dam occasionally bursts. It wants to put its cornerbacks on an island. When you've got a lockdown guy like Darqueze Dennard on the outside, this formula results in a top-two defense. When you don't, there might be a few too many busts to land in the Def. S&P+ top 10.

Michigan State gave up 52 passes of 20-plus yards last year, 111th in the country. The Spartans got away with it because they were so good against the run and made more than their fair share of havoc plays in the process.

The safety position is loaded in 2016, with each of the top three (Montae Nicholson, Demetrious Cox, Grayson Miller) returning. But two of the top three corners are gone, and senior Darian Hicks has had an up-and-down three years. Sophomore Vayante Copeland was looking fantastic through two games but suffered a neck injury against Oregon and missed the rest of the year; if he's back and 100 percent (signs look promising), then maybe State's CB play will be fine.

But with such an aggressive defense, corner might be the most important position on the field, and we don't know for sure what the Spartans have there.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Jake Hartbarger 6'4, 207 So. 57 42.7 8 13 19 56.1% Tyler O'Connor 6'3, 225 Sr. 5 38.4 1 0 1 20.0%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Kevin Cronin 6'1, 215 Sr. 76 60.1 23 2 30.3%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Michael Geiger 5'8, 183 Sr. 51-53 8-12 66.7% 4-7 57.1%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD R.J. Shelton KR 5'11, 205 Sr. 19 21.8 0 Delton Williams KR 6'1, 230 Sr. 2 15.5 0 Macgarrett Kings Jr. PR 10 3.8 0 R.J. Shelton PR 5'11, 205 Sr. 3 2.0 0

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 103 Field Goal Efficiency 103 Punt Return Success Rate 102 Kick Return Success Rate 19 Punt Success Rate 90 Kickoff Success Rate 78

9. Special teams was a drag

Aside from R.J. Shelton's steady kick returns, MSU ranked 78th or worse in every special teams efficiency category last year. Michael Geiger was less steady than you'd like in place-kicking, punt returns didn't go anywhere, Kevin Cronin's kickoffs rarely reached the end zone, and while Jake Hartbarger's nearly 43-yard punting average was impressive, State allowed 12.8 yards per return (115th in FBS) and two touchdowns.

Yuck. That everybody is back might be a good thing, but that's not guaranteed.

(I would be remiss if I didn't offer extreme condolences here to both the Michigan State and Nebraska families after the terrible car accident that took the lives of NU's Sam Foltz and former MSU punter Mike Sadler.)

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Furman NR 38.7 99% 17-Sep at Notre Dame 11 -6.7 35% 24-Sep Wisconsin 37 8.8 69% 1-Oct at Indiana 56 6.2 64% 8-Oct BYU 35 8.7 69% 15-Oct Northwestern 46 11.9 75% 22-Oct at Maryland 62 7.1 66% 29-Oct Michigan 6 -2.3 45% 5-Nov at Illinois 76 9.6 71% 12-Nov Rutgers 87 20.1 88% 19-Nov Ohio State 14 0.7 52% 26-Nov at Penn State 28 -1.2 47% Projected wins: 7.8

Five-Year F/+ Rk 36.5% (9) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 18 / 21 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 14 / 2.3 2015 TO Luck/Game +4.5 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 45% (26%, 64%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 9.8 (2.2)

10. 3 tossups will tell the tale

Breaking: Michigan State will be good again in 2016.

The Spartans are projected a conservative 22nd in S&P+, mainly because of turnover in the passing game, but I have just enough confidence in O'Connor to assume that they will exceed that projection and threaten another top-15 ranking.

What that means for State's wins and losses will depend on a handful of key contests. The schedule is kind, and MSU has at least a 64 pecent chance of winning in eight of 12 games despite the relatively low projection. But while a loss at Notre Dame is perhaps likely, the results of the Michigan (45 percent win probability), Ohio State (52 percent), and Penn State (47 percent) games will tell us whether 2016 results in another Big Ten title run or the type of "legacy season" I expected last year.

If the coin lands on heads two of three times, it is quite conceivable that State is right back in the Big Ten title game. But if last year's happy turnovers luck reverses, maybe the Spartans settle for a 9-4 finish and a New Year's Day bowl.

Regardless, if State falls, it won't fall far. The Spartans are just too sturdily built.