Unpopular and Without Solid Base Support, Trump and Clinton Threaten to Reshape Electoral Map

Republican Donald Trump leads Democratic Hillary Clinton in Iowa and the two candidates are statistically tied in Virginia, with Mrs. Clinton up by 1 point. A new [content_tooltip id=”38226″ title=”Emerson College Polling University”] of the two battleground states confirm weaknesses for both candidates in an election that threatens to reshape the electoral map.

Iowa

In Iowa, Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton 44% to 39%, with Libertarian Party candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson getting 8% and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein at 1%. In a flip of the mainstream media narrative, Mrs. Clinton is the one having the trouble ensuring her base, with 78% of Democrats backing her juxtaposed to Mr. Trump taking 86% of the Republican vote. Independents in the Hawkeye State, who traditionally buck the national trend on the presidential level, break for Mrs. Clinton 34% to 33% with 16% voting for Gov. Johnson.

However, 34% of voters who supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are supporting another candidate other than Clinton, largely Mr. Trump.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley leads Democratic challenger Patty Judge 51% to 40% with 6% undecided. Sen. Grassley enjoys a 48% to 39% favorability rating but Ms. Judge finds herself underwater, 34% favorable to 36% unfavorable.

Read Full Results: ECPS Top lines Iowa Virginia Sept 2

Virginia

In the Old Dominion, which votes more like the New Dominion, Mrs. Clinton is just one point ahead of Mr. Trump, 44% to 43%, with Gov. Johnson taking 11% and the Dr. Stein at 3%. Despite choosing Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate, Mrs. Clinton has yet to consolidate her own party’s base and is getting crushed by Mr. Trump among independents, 47% to 28%, with 19% voting for Gov. Johnson.

Still, the bitter primary is still taking its toll on both candidates, with former rivals on the Republican side still refusing to endorse Mr. Trump. Even though Sen. Sanders did endorse Mrs. Clinton, his followers are not ready to get behind his decision.

Only 36% of voters who supported Ohio Gov. John Kasich during the primary are voting for Mr. Trump. The same is true for (56%) Sen. Marco Rubio, the second place finisher in Virginia, and (73%) Sen. Ted Cruz. Only 63% of those who voted for Sen. Sanders say they will vote for Mrs. Clinton, while 16% go for Mr. Trump, 15% for Gov. Johnson and 6% for Dr. Stein.

“Although Clinton’s running mate is Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, he does not seem to be aiding her favorability numbers,” said Professor Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling Advisor. “Among Democrats, 85% plan to vote for Clinton while 9% are crossing over to Trump and 5% to Johnson. The crossover pattern is similar among Republicans, with Trump receiving 81% of the vote, Clinton 7% and Johnson 10%.”

The results of the Emerson College Polling Society Virginia poll is inline with a recent Hampton University poll that found Mrs. Clinton leading by just 2 points in a head-to-head matchup. Meanwhile, the New York businessman now holds a slight lead over Mrs. Clinton in the People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll.

Bottom Line

Worth noting, Emerson College, which was awarded a lifetime grade of an A on the PPD Pollster Scorecard, was one of the most accurate polling outfits in the country during the 2016 primary season. Emerson College released 16 surveys in 8 states and was correct 94% of the time (92% lifetime), with an average error of 7.2%.

Read Full Results: ECPS Top lines Iowa Virginia Sept 2

The Emerson College Polling Society Virginia poll was conducted August 30-September 1. The sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. The Emerson College Polling Society Iowa poll was conducted August 31-September 1. The sample consisted of 600 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found here.