The story I read recently said the decline has been dramatic. Researchers say the area occupied by the Monarchs was down 44 percent from last winter to this one.

What has caused the decline? That seems to be less clear. Changes in land use in the southern states has caused the reproductive habitat to shrink. A loss of forest area in the mountains was cited. But the chief culprit appears to be the widespread use of herbicide that has decimated milkweed, the Monarchs’ primary food source.

Whatever the cause, or combination thereof, the blame seems to lie with us.

Maybe there is nothing that can be done. Perhaps the incredible migration of the Monarchs is just another victim of progress. People moving south want new houses, big yards. Pesticides are necessary to feed the world. Monarchs will just have to learn to adapt. Or else fade from the scene.

That is probably what a thoroughly modern person would say. Maybe there’s truth to it.

But I have been thinking a lot about woolly bear caterpillars lately as I try to put some positive spin on the long cold winter. Magic trumps computer models, I tell myself.

Now I wonder if there might be some connection between the cold winter and what we have done to the Monarchs.