In Ky., confident Paul foresees 'a tea party tidal wave coming'



Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul campaigns at a delicatessen in Scottsville, Ky., on May 14. (AP Photo/Joe Imel)



Updated 6:51 p.m.

By Perry Bacon, Jr.

BOWLING GREEN, Ky. -- Even before Republican voters in Kentucky cast their ballots on Tuesday, the favorite in the Republican U.S. Senate primary has already declared "there's a tea party tidal wave coming."



"It's already gotten to Utah, and tomorrow it comes to Kentucky," Rand Paul told a crowd of supporters in this town, where he has long worked as an eye doctor.



In his final rally before the election, Paul sounded confident not just of victory over Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, but of being part of a tea party movement that he thinks will change politics.

Polls show Paul comfortably ahead in the GOP race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.). He argues that a win here will help solidify the tea party's place both within the Republican Party and in the broader national political landscape.



"Tomorrow's election will be big, it's going to be big for us in Kentucky, it's going to be big nationally," he said. "It will be the first victory for a tea party candidate in a statewide election, and this will have huge ramifications."

"We the tea party, we the people of Kentucky will help decide what that message is, where the Republican Party goes, what the Republican Party becomes," he added. "This is an important election. You will be part of helping define the direction of our country the next few years."

12:20 p.m.: Is Paul the Fox News candidate?

LOUISVILLE -- Trey Grayson says it's hard enough when your opponent has a national fundraising base and a huge grassroots following, thanks in part to his father's presidential campaign. But Grayson says he's not just facing the Paul family in his race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.), but an even more powerful force in conservative politics: Fox News.



By frequently putting Rand Paul, the son of Ron Paul and Grayson's opponent, on its air, Grayson says the network has all but endorsed Paul and given him an easy way to tout his candidacy without actually meeting Kentucky voters in person.



"I've been on Fox News once, on a live feed on one of the shows, and I was told I was to expect a certain line of questioning, and I was given a different line of questioning," Grayson said. Referring to Rand Paul, Grayson said, "He's on all of the time."



"His dad had these phenomenal contacts, so ... he's on Fox News every couple of weeks with softballs," said Grayson. Imitating an anchor's voice, Grayson said the questions are softballs such as, "Rand, tell us about health care, you're a doctor. Rand, tell us about the tea party."



Paul has acknowledged his father's role in helping him raise money and get media attention. And with Grayson, Kentucky' secretary of state, lagging behind Paul in polls, his criticisms of Fox, which does not formally endorse candidates, may be sour grapes.



But they also fit into the broader critique Grayson is offering in the final of his campaign: Paul would represent the tea party more than Kentucky in Congress.

"I think he'd more of a grandstander," said Grayson. "He wants to be a national leader, I want to be a leader from Kentucky. I'm not running to be the candidate of the tea party, I'm running to be the candidate of the Republican Party of Kentucky. It's just a different approach." He added of Paul, "the guy never talks about our state."



Grayson, who has the backing of the state's most powerful Republican, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, contrasted McConnell with Paul.



Voters "want the guy who will fight for their priorities," he said. "We're fortunate Mitch McConnell does both, fights for Kentucky and is a national leader."



Grayson said all of this to a group of reporters and about 15 supporters in an airport hangar in Louisville at one of his final campaign events. His opponent may have a more effective strategy.

At the same time Grayson was speaking, Paul was appearing on Fox News.

6:51 a.m. In Ky., the Establishment vs. the Quasi-Outsider

LOUISVILLE -- The establishment candidates for the U.S. Senate could lose on both the Democratic and Republican side Tuesday in primaries to replace retiring Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning (R), an outcome that would further illustrate the appeal of running as an outsider in the 2010 election cycle.

Rand Paul is favored in the GOP race here to defeat Trey Grayson, even though Grayson has the backing of two of the state's leading Republican figures: U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers, a very well-liked congressman.

Meanwhile, in the less hyped but also-intense Democratic race, state Attorney General Jack Conway remains effectively tied with Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, despite Conway's embrace by the state's two Democratic congressmen and its last Democratic senator, the popular Wendell Ford.

Beyond the tea party's outsized role in the GOP primary, the two races have many parallels. Like Grayson, who was encouraged by Republican officials in part because of questions about Bunning's chances of winning in November, top Democratic officials recruited Conway as a candidate they viewed as having a stronger chance of winning a general election than Mongiardo.

The establishment candidates are both lawyers, facing two physicians (Paul is an eye doctor, Mongiardo an ear, nose and throat surgeon). Both Paul and Mongiardo have cast themselves as outsiders, even though Mongiardo is the state's No. 2 officeholder and Paul greatly benefited from the support base of his father Ron, a longtime congressman who developed a national grass-roots base during an unsuccessful presidential run. All four candidates are running against Washington (like candidates across the country). But Mongiardo has sharply criticized the climate change legislation being pushed by his party, saying it would hurt Kentucky's coal industry, while Paul constantly notes the growth in the deficit was spurred by programs by pushed through by Republicans as well as Democrats.

On the other hand, Conway and Grayson, the two establishment candidates, have cast themselves as representatives of the visions of the parties they belong to. Running against Paul, Grayson refers to himself in speeches as a "mainstream Kentucky Republican." While Mongiardo has distanced himself from the health-care law passed earlier this year by Democrats, Conway has emphatically supported it, repeatedly saying "we need to stand up and be Democrats."

And in spite of the anti-incumbent mood in the country, Conway and Grayson have touted their establishment support. Saturday, in one of his final campaign speeches, Grayson noted his backing from McConnell and Rogers. Conway plans to spend part of Monday campaigning with Ford.

"The endorsements really help with momentum and it helps with the undecideds," said Conway. "I understand the anti-establishment mood out there. Rand Paul's race is being fueled by it. But I think [the endorsements] help in the Democratic primary."

McConnell remains popular among Republicans (a recent poll showed him with a 68 percent approval rating among Republicans in the state, while 21 percent disapproved of him), as do the Democrats who have embraced Conway. But if either Paul or Mongiardo were to win and get elected in the fall, they would come to Washington with a mandate to act more independently than the establishment candidates.

Paul has already declared a set of positions, such as opposition to all earmarks, and a leading place in a movement (the tea party) that would make him a unique figure in Senate and perhaps an annoyance to McConnell.

On the Democratic side, Conway has been embraced by liberal groups such as MoveOn.org. On the other hand, while any Democrat elected to the Senate from Kentucky would have to hew to the center, Mongiardo is the kind of figure, like Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), who might frustrate party regulars by standing with the GOP on some issues.

"I supported Barack Obama in the primary but then I stood up in opposition to him on cap and trade," Mongiardo said, referring to the energy legislation the president has embraced. "I'm not going to go up there and follow a party or an ideology."

He added, "What Kentuckians are looking for is an independent Democrat, somebody who's going to stand up and not be a pro-party candidate."