These forecasts about the ongoing coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) are updated daily, and are provided with the hope that they can help improve planning by health security professionals and the broader public, to limit the spread of the virus and save lives.



The predictions below are aggregated from forecasts by professional Superforecasters, who qualified by being in the most accurate 2% of forecasters from a large-scale, government-funded series of forecasting tournaments that ran from 2011-2015 (see Superforecasting) and, since then, by being in the top handful of forecasters from Good Judgment’s public forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open (see here).



For each forecasting question below, possible outcomes are divided into "buckets," and a probability is given for each bucket (summing to 100%). Hence, the percentages refer not to what portion of Superforecasters think a given bucket of outcomes is most likely, but how likely they think each bucket is to occur. Click "Show More" and scroll down to see additional details, including how the aggregated forecast has evolved over time and commentary from the Superforecasters.



For additional information, health safety advice, and regular updates about COVID-19, see the websites of the World Health Organization, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and Our World in Data.