Los Angeles voters will decide this spring whether to place a temporary halt to some building construction to reform what backers say is a broken land-use system that favors developers over the needs of neighbors.



But if Measure S should pass, according to a study released Thursday, it would not only put a $2 billion dent in the Los Angeles economy, put 24,000 people out of work and cut $70 million from city coffers – enough to hire 1,000 firefighters or cops.



It would curtail housing construction in a city desperately short of needed homes, opponents say. And it could tip Los Angeles into another economic recession.



“Voting yes on S could have a catastrophic effect on our jobs, on our economy, our schools, our parks and our city budget, most of all,” said Ron Miller, executive secretary for the Los Angeles/Orange Counties Building & Construction Trades Council, which represents more than 100,000 trades union members, and co-chair of a No on S Campaign, during a news conference.



“In a single year, Measure S could eliminate 12,000 jobs, more than half of them in construction.”



Measure S, also known as the Neighborhood Integrity Initiative, would place a two-year moratorium on construction requiring any general plan amendment, zone change or tweak to any height restrictions.



• RELATED STORY: San Fernando Valley residents rally to support planning reform measure



If approved this March, it would force Los Angeles to update its general plans for development, now decades out of date. It would also require planners, not builders, to pick the authors of environmental impact studies.



Most importantly, it would put a two-year halt to the common practice of “spot zoning” that grants builders exceptions to rules regulating height, density, parking and more. Because community plans across the city are so out of date, most major projects require some form of zoning variance, builders say.



Proponents, including Michael Weinstein of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation and a Coalition to Preserve L.A., say the Measure S initiative would fix a “pay to play” system in which developers cut cozy deals at City Hall to get approval for projects that don’t conform to community zoning.



“They want to build huge inappropriate stuff that will create massive surface street traffic jams on roads that can’t handle it,” said Jill Stewart, campaign director for the Coalition to Preserve L.A. , who took issue with a study she said was backed by trade unions and billionaire developers. “Residents don’t want it.



“We’re pro development: We (just) want them to follow the rules.”



While backers say it would only affect 5 percent of all new construction, critics say it would effectively kill development – a key economic engine for Los Angeles.



Opponents of the measure, which includes a broad coalition of business groups, unions, homeless advocates and neighborhood council members, say it goes too far, according to a Website campaign to dissuade voters.



“Measure S kills jobs” and “Vote no on Measure S: Stop the Housing Ban” were among the placards wielded by dozens of union workers and business and labor leaders inside the Southern California Plumbing and Pipe Trades training center in Van Nuys.



The United Way of Greater Los Angeles, which opposes the measure, said it would put a stop to the $1.2 billion in housing for the homeless just passed by 77 percent of voters.



“I don’t know about you, but I don’t feel we have any housing or jobs to spare,” said Chris Ko, director of homeless initiatives for the United Way. “And that’s a problem. Measure S is a housing ban, plain and simple.



“And that’s especially troubling to us, because housing ends homelessness.



The 38-page report, conducted by Beacon Economics on behalf of a Coalition to Protect L.A. Neighborhoods, studied the economic impact of Measure S based on a decade of construction projects that required variances. Among its findings:



• A moratorium on construction would rob the region of $1.9 billion in economic output in its first year, and $19.3 billion over ten years, the estimated time needed to update city community plans. The cost in jobs: more than 120,000 over a decade.



• A halt in building could block up to 45 new single family homes and up to 2,800 apartments, putting a strain on the housing supply and driving up rents.



• A building stoppage would cost Los Angeles $70 million in property tax and other revenues, including $24 millions spent on city parks.



The building moratorium measure is opposed such business groups as the Valley Industry & Commerce Association and the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce.



“What this report lays out is it’s catastrophic, disastrous, the lever you pull if you want a recession,” said Ruben Gonzalez, senior advisor for the L.A. chamber. “What do we get in return?



“Homelessness. Higher housing costs. Higher rents.”



EDITOR’S NOTE: Since this article published, opponents of Measure S have scaled back claims in a city voter guide, based on the Beacon Economics report, about the economic impact of Measure S. Backers of the measure filed a lawsuit in December 2016 in Los Angeles Superior Court arguing that Measures S opponents’ initial ballot argument — which was based in part on the Beacon report — assumed a 10-year moratorium on development projects requiring zone plan amendments, not the two-year moratorium focused on in the initiative. Under an agreement reached between the sides in January, backers dropped the lawsuit and opponents no longer called the study “independent” and limited their ballot arguments on the economic impact of the proposed measure to the measure’s two-year restriction.

