Good Tuesday. (Want this by email? Sign up here.)

Tariffs on China don’t cover the cost of the trade war

President Trump says his trade fight with Beijing is hurting China’s economy while generating billions of dollars for the U.S. That’s not entirely true.

“Tariffs are undeniably hurting China, where exports power about 20 percent of the economy, compared with 12 percent in the United States,” Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley of the NYT write. “On Monday, the Chinese government said its economy had grown at a 6.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the lowest rate in 27 years.”

But there is little sign that China’s loss is America’s gain. Business activity that is shifting from China is largely headed to “other low-cost countries, like Vietnam, with a transition cost attached for American companies that depend on them.” And income from tariffs is more than offset by costs:

• The U.S. has raised $20.8 billion from tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods through last Wednesday, according to data from Customs and Border Protection.

• But Mr. Trump has already committed to paying $28 billion in subsidies to American farmers hurt by the trade war. And numerous studies have shown that U.S. consumers are bearing costs from the tariffs.