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More cars are manufactured in Mexico than in Canada, with companies choosing Mexico for reasons ranging from lower labour costs to higher productivity rates and trade deals with Europe and Asia that mean lower tariffs, or none at all.

That’s why what’s happening in the energy space — along with what Alberta’s NDP government plans to do — is important in the context of Canada’s economic well-being.

The story, says Jestin, is one of caution.

“There’s a nervousness out there because there is political uncertainty on top of energy uncertainty,” said Jestin, adding that in his 40 years as an economist he has never seen such a spread in terms of oil price forecasts.

Global growth remains slower, particularly in the emerging markets. Healthy growth for the United States is now pegged at two to three per cent and everyone is hopeful that Europe can post growth of better than one per cent.

“But there isn’t a ‘three’ handle in the developed world,” said Jestin.

With increasing supply from the oilsands, the ability of the shale producers to respond to price signals and the geopolitical factors at play as a result of OPEC’s unwillingness to cut production, there isn’t a lot of strong support for a liftoff in oil prices.

Saudi output hit record levels in May and OPEC as a whole is producing more barrels today than it was at this time last year.

“All this translates into a very different development plan for the industry,” he said.

According to an ARC Financial report, 13 projects have been cancelled or delayed in the oilsands since January — half of all projects cancelled around the world in that same time. The number could be higher since not all companies are beholden to the same standards of transparency as those operating in developed jurisdictions.