Gas prices head up when they usually head down in winter

Nathan Bomey | USA TODAY

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Winter is supposed to bring relief at the fuel pump, but rising oil prices have zapped hopes of seasonal savings this year.

The average price of gas nationwide is up 24 cents from a year ago to $2.54 per gallon, according to AAA.

Surprisingly, the price has climbed over the last month, rising 10 cents. Usually the winter leads to less driving and falling gasoline demand, translating into lower prices at the pump.

But gas prices have increased in 38 of 50 states over the last week, according to consumer information app GasBuddy.com.

"We almost always see gas prices casually declining into mid-February before there’s any talk of an organized upward trend," said Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy's senior petroleum analyst.

Instead, he said, relief at the pump is unlikely — and springtime price peaks could be higher than projected.

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"I think $3 a gallon is going to be more widespread, at least temporarily," DeHaan said.

For drivers such as Nashville-area educator Kinita Dollar, that means it's time to reconsider transportation plans.

"You have to be more conscious about how much you drive," she said. "In our household, we budget for gas."

Dollar said she drives 35 to 40 minutes to work, while her husband drives 1 hour and 15 minutes. They fill up on fuel multiple times a week.

Although the price increases haven't been outrageous, Dollar said they could still lead her family to buy a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Currently she drives a coupe, and her husband drives a large sedan.

"It definitely makes you think about, what can I get — maybe a hybrid or something smaller," she said. "We definitely wouldn’t buy a truck because gas is so much more."

At current averages, the price of fuel is already nearing GasBuddy's 2018 projected full-year national average of $2.57 per gallon. That level would equal an 18-cent jump from 2017 and a 45-cent jump from 2016's decade-low $2.12.

DeHaan said he's "tempted" to make an upward adjustment to that forecast.

The key factor driving prices higher is falling supplies of oil. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has kept a tight lid on output following a recent deal to extend oil production cuts.

And declining production in Venezuela, which is being roiled by political and economic turmoil, has contributed to the price spike.

But don't expect prices to go much higher. U.S. producers are pumping oil at record rates, which is likely to keep a lid on increases, DeHaan said.

Although springtime maintenance shutdowns at refineries will put pressure on gas prices tp rise, oil is unlikely to go much higher than about $65 per barrel, DeHaan predicted.

Oil was up 1.3% to $64.38 at midday Tuesday. The price has jumped more than 10% over the last month.

Follow USA TODAY reporter Nathan Bomey on Twitter @NathanBomey.