Today’s guest post comes from Miles Wray, a long-time reader of the site. He’s written an interesting post on special teams today, but you may know him as the host of the daily NBA podcast The 82 Review. You can also find him on Twitter @mileswray. What follows are Miles’ words: as always, we thank our guest writers for their contributions.

Bill Belichick Found Another Way to Bleed Yards From Opponents

Anytime the New England Patriots are at the top — or the bottom — of a league-wide leaderboard, no matter how insignificant that leaderboard is, it’s worth taking notice. The odds are that Bill Belichick and Ernie Adams are thinking a few steps ahead of every other team in the league, and are leveraging yet another corner of the game to their advantage.

Since the Patriots offense remains incredibly explosive, it’s pretty reasonable that they would be near the top of the league in the total number of kickoffs returned (i.e., opponent kickoff returns). New England has 47 kickoffs this year, or nearly double the number of a struggling offense like the Cleveland Browns (26). But how about this: the Patriots are dramatically ahead of everybody else in the league in the percentage of their kickoffs that are returned.

Since kickoffs were moved from the 30- to the 35-yard-line in 2011, it’s more common than ever to see a kickoff boomed out the back of the endzone. These plays have become so routine it’s basically part of the commercial break now. But not for the Patriots. The Patriots seem to be inviting their opponent to return their kicks.

I went through the kickoff statistics for each team in the league, and discarded any onside kicks, any short kicks in the last 10 seconds of the first half (which are often intentionally squibbed), and any kicks where the just-scored/kicking-off team had been penalized, moving the kickoff to the 30-, 25-, or 20-yard line. The remaining “clean” kickoffs give the best indication of a team’s intentional special teams strategy over time.

This season, most teams have about a third of their kickoffs returned. Only three teams have had over half of their kickoffs returned; the Patriots are alone at over 60%:

Rank Team % of clean kickoffs returned 1 Patriots 61.7 2 Chargers 57.6 3 Dolphins 51.8 4 Seahawks 48.7 5 Vikings 47.7 6 Bills 47.5 7 Bears 46.4 8 Giants 44.8 9 Cardinals 44.1 10 Lions 44.2 11 Cowboys 41.3 12 Bengals 38 t13 Steelers 37.5 t13 Buccaneers 37.5 15 Jaguars 36.9 16 Eagles 36.8 17 Titans 33.3 18 Colts 32.5 19 Raiders 32.4 20 Broncos 32.3 21 Ravens 31.8 22 Falcons 30.7 23 Packers 29.4 24 Saints 27.2 25 Texans 26.6 26 Jets 26.1 27 Chiefs 25.9 28 Washington 25 29 Browns 24 30 Rams 22.8 31 49ers 18.4 32 Panthers 7.1

What’s interesting about most teams intentionally booming kickoffs near or out of the back of the endzone is that just about every team in the NFL has a very good success rate at stopping the return. Below is a leaderboard of teams sorted by the percentage of total kickoffs, including the many touchbacks, that they allow as a kickoff defense to get to the opponent’s 30-yard-line or further. Note that the Patriots are actually slightly below-average at this:

Rank Team % of clean kickoffs returned to 30 or farther t1 Falcons 0 t1 49ers 0 t1 Washington 0 4 Chiefs 1.8 t5 Jets 2.3 t5 Panthers 2.3 7 Cardinals 2.9 8 Bengals 3.4 9 Dolphins 3.7 10 Browns 4 11 Cowboys 4.3 12 Ravens 4.5 13 Colts 5 14 Buccaneers 6.2 15 Lions 6.6 t16 Giants 6.8 t16 Vikings 6.8 t18 Eagles 7 t18 Rams 7 20 Bears 7.1 21 Steelers 7.5 22 Patriots 8.5 t23 Broncos 8.8 t23 Packers 8.8 t23 Texans 8.8 26 Seahawks 10.2 27 Raiders 10.8 28 Saints 11.3 29 Titans 11.9 30 Jaguars 13 31 Bills 15 32 Chargers 19.2

Looking at the above chart, it’s clear that one size does not fit all with a kickoff strategy. Unlike many conservative approaches in the NFL, being conservative on your kickoffs — that is, asking for a unreturnable touchback — can indeed pay dividends. Many of the teams who allow fewer total returns also rank very well in not giving up big returns. For young and potentially mistake-prone defenses like the 49ers, Jets, and Browns, this is actually probably the optimal strategy.

What Belichick has likely noticed, though, is that just about every kick return defense in the league will stop returners at the 20-yard-line or shorter more often — usually way more often — than they will let the returner to the 30 or beyond. The Patriots are pretty much always at the top of the market for special teams, not just paying Stephen Gostkowski a league-high $4.3M cap dollars per year, but also employing dedicated special teams players like Matt Slater and Nate Ebner. It’s no surprise that they rank a strong second overall — trailing the league’s most surprising kickoff-savvy team — in the percentage of their kickoffs that they stuff at the 20 or sooner:

Rank Team % of clean kickoffs stopped at 20 or shorter 1 Dolphins 29.6 2 Patriots 27.6 3 Giants 27.5 4 Bears 21.4 5 Seahawks 20.5 6 Ravens 20.4 7 Cowboys 19.5 8 Chargers 19.2 9 Vikings 18.1 10 Cardinals 17.6 t11 Bills 17.5 t11 Colts 17.5 13 Jets 16.6 14 Browns 16 15 Eagles 15.7 16 Lions 15.5 17 Steelers 15 18 Bengals 13.7 19 Saints 13.6 20 Raiders 13.5 21 Washington 13.1 22 Jaguars 13 23 Buccaneers 12.5 24 Titans 11.9 t25 Chiefs 11.1 t25 Texans 11.1 27 49ers 10.5 28 Falcons 10.2 29 Packers 8.8 30 Rams 8.7 31 Panthers 2.3 32 Broncos 1.3

From everything above, here are the teams I see who are running, in one way or another, a very inefficient kickoff strategy:

Chargers: Although the Chargers are second overall to the Patriots in the total percentage of their kickoffs that are being returned, Los Angeles is getting burned on long returns more often than any other team. Given the carousel of kickers that Los Angeles has gone through this year, it’s entirely possible that YoungHoe Koo and now Nick Novak do not have the necessary leg strength to push the ball far enough back for touchbacks.

Ravens: Baltimore has the best stuff rate in the league: only 31.8% of their total kickoffs have been returned, but 20.4% of the total kickoffs have been stopped at the 20 or sooner. Perhaps this is a function of superstar kicker Justin Tucker: no one would be surprised if a huge air-time under Tucker’s kicks is giving the Baltimore defense enough time to run into place. So why are such a low percentage of Tucker’s kicks getting returned? I’m a bit surprised that John Harbaugh, former special teams coach, hasn’t used his team’s strength to his advantage more often.

Broncos: Denver is the only team in the league who is giving up more big returns (30 or farther) than short returns (20 or closer). Could it be that the thin air that has so helped Broncos field goal kickers over the years comes back to hurt them on kickoffs, with the ball sailing much faster than the defense can keep up with?

Although the Patriots have, in my opinion, the best kickoff strategy in the league, there is a trio of unlikely teams that are excelling with a similar approach:

Bears: John Fox is scrapping and clawing to win games with an impotent offense however he can — and, to his credit, his winning percentage is much better than you’d expect. Chicago got burned by the incredibly bizarre Bobby Rainey return touchdown against Baltimore, which has decimated any of the team’s conventional full-season kickoff statistics. Credit Fox for trusting the process over fluky results, though: the Bears are still a top-10 team in kickoff return rate.

Giants: The Giants are virtual copies of the Bears on all three of the charts above. One thing to keep your eye on, though: six of the team’s eight total 20-or-earlier stops came in the first five games of the season, when special teams speed demon Dwayne Harris was healthy.

Dolphins: If there is one team that is rivaling the Patriots with their kickoff approach, it is, surprisingly, the Dolphins. Behind Cody Parkey, the team is third in return rate, top-10 in preventing big returns (alongside many of the most conservative teams in the league), and first overall in creating short returns. Tough kickoff defense played a huge role in Miami’s first win of the season, a 19-17 victory over the Chargers. With six minutes left in the fourth quarter, Parkey nailed a field goal to cut Los Angeles’ lead to 17-16. He put the ensuing kickoff one yard deep in the endzone, where Austin Ekeler returned it to the 12 — only to have the possession start at the 6-yard-line on a holding penalty. Over the next three minutes, the Chargers could only move the ball 19 yards — bringing the ball to the touchback spot on the 25. Los Angeles had to punt from there, giving Miami an opportunity to start one yard short of midfield. Miami could only move the ball 16 yards but, at that point, they were close enough for Parkey to nail another field goal, giving Miami the 19-17 lead with just a minute left.

Still, New England has kicked the ball off 20 more times than Miami has this season. Even if the Dolphins have the slight edge on the percentages I’ve found here, the Patriots have stopped kickoffs short so many more times. Plus, the strategy is an incredible fit for the 2017 Patriots: with a skilled special teams but a flailing defense, New England needs to create longer fields for their defense as often as possible. Patriots opponents start their average drive at their own 24, the farthest from the end zone of any defense in the NFL.

Four of the Patriots’ six victories have been by single digits, and a sharp kickoff has played a role in every single one of those victories.

Week 3 v. Texans: With four minutes left in the first half, Houston can only return a kickoff to the 16-yard-line. The Texans are unable to move out of their own territory and punt the ball back to New England with one minute left. This gives Tom Brady enough time to take two deep shots at the end zone, although neither of them come through.

Week 5 v. Buccaneers: With 40 seconds left in the first half, a kickoff forces the Buccaneers to start from their 22. As time expires, Nick Folk is forced to attempt a 56-yard field goal — which he misses. Since 2000, kickers are 54.1% on just 61 total attempts from 56 yards. If the possession had started with a touchback, shifting the Buccaneers three yards up, all kickers are 62.6% on 329 attempts from 53 yards.

Week 6 v. Jets: In the third quarter, New England up 21-14, the Jets are forced to start a possession on their own 14, an 11-yard hole compared to a touchback. After a six-minute drive, New York faces 4th-and-1 on the New England 34 — just on the edge of field goal range. The Jets go for it, but Devin McCourty intercepts the ball.

Week 8 v. Chargers: Los Angeles can only return the game-opening kickoff to the 20. After a six-minute drive, Nick Novak misses a 51-yard field goal.

Are these stuffed kickoff returns relatively small factors in 60-minute wins that required every ounce of effort from all facets of the team? You bet. The thing is, the Patriots have kept not just their playoff hopes but their first-round-bye hopes alive with this string of razor-thin-margin victories. Although one-possession games in the NFL are famously subject to the winds of randomness, one can’t help but feel like Belichick and Adams built all these wins, brick by brick. And one of those foundational bricks? Relying on Gostowski to plop those kickoffs just a yard or two or three into the endzone, convincing that adrenaline-jacked return man to bring the ball out — right into the waiting arms of the defense.

All stats via Pro Football Reference and accurate as of games played on Week 9.