Michigan Rep. Vern Ehlers retires





Michigan Rep. Vern Ehlers is retiring. AP photo

Michigan Rep. Vern Ehlers announced his retirement this morning, the 17th Republican to decide against seeking re-election to the next Congress.

"I don't want to stay in office so long that people will say you should have left five years ago," Ehlers said.

Extenuating circumstances likely played a role in Ehlers' decision. His wife, Johanna, suffered a heart attack last week and, on Tuesday, conservative state Rep. Justin Amash announced plans to primary the 76-year-old Ehlers.

Ehlers' 3rd district, which is centered in Grand Rapids, was extremely competitive in 2008 as Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) won it by just over 2,000 votes. The seat went strongly for George W. Bush in 2004 (59 percent) and 2000 (60 percent), however.

"Voters in the Grand Rapids area have long supported Republican candidates who stand for limited government and pro-growth economic policies, and we are confident that they will continue to do so in November," said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas).

The best known potential Republican candidate is Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who, according to informed Wolverine State Republicans, has long eyed Ehlers seat. Lynn Land is currently running for lieutenant governor on a ticket led by Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard.

It was not immediately clear whether Democrats would seek to contest the district in the fall or who their candidate might be.

(Here's a list of potential candidates for the seat from the Grand Rapids Press newspapers.

Whether or not Ehlers seat is targeted by the two national parties in the fall, it provides a short-term talking point for House Democrats who have been working to beat back talk of an avalanche -- that terms seems especially appropriate today in Washington -- of retirements on their side in the wake of Sen. Scott Brown's (R-Mass.) special election victory last month.

Since that time, one Democrat -- Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry -- has stepped aside while Ehlers and Rep. Steve Buyer (Ind.) have decided to take a pass on re-election bids.

As we always say, however, all retirement are not created equal so don't read too much into the fact that Republicans have five more open seats to defend than Democrats. The Democratic retirements are still, generally, in more problematic districts and more of them are likely to draw the attention -- and campaign cash -- of the two national parties.

Still, open seat races -- no matter the demographics of a district -- are proven to be more electorally volatile than when an incumbent seeks re-election. So, the higher the number of retirements rise for Republicans, the more places they will need to keep an eye on and play defense in a cycle where they are expected to be offense in most places across the country.