North Korea fired off a pair of short-range missiles today — Reuters is now reporting a third — and speculation now centers on whether Pyongyang is planning a more dramatic test of a long-range missile that could, in theory, reach Hawaii.

Three years ago, North Korea ratcheted up tensions in the region with a series of missile tests, including the launch of a long-range Taepodong-2 ballistic missile. That Taepodong-2 launch was a failure: The missile cracked up less than a minute after launch, but the North Koreans continued to pursue intercontinental ballistic missile technology.

So can we count on a repeat performance this Fourth of July? According to Bloomberg's Tony Capaccio, don't count on it. Capaccio spoke with unnamed government officials who are tracking North Korea's launch preparations, and they say that "there are no signs of the work necessary to launch a long-range missile during the U.S. July 4 Independence Day celebration."

Still, it's worth taking a look at how North Korea's missile program has progressed. David Wright and Theodore Postol recently published an analysis of the country's April test of the Unha-2, a satellite launch vehicle, in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Wright and Postol note that parts of the missile were of Russian origin: The first stage, they argue, uses a cluster of four Nodong engines, which are "scaled-up" versions of the engine used in Russian/Soviet-origin Scud-B missiles. The second stage, they say, looks identical to the single-stage Soviet R-27 sea-launched ballistic missile.

The bad news? The Unha-2 "represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers" and it could potentially reach the continental United States if it modified for use as a ballistic missile. The good news? The long-range missile "appears to be constructed from components that probably weren't manufactured in North Korea." In other words, they will sooner or later run out of missile parts, provided that sanctions remain in place.

[PHOTO: Wikimedia]

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