by Vince Verhei

Quarterback Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns against Detroit yesterday, setting Green Bay Packers benchmarks in both categories. As Flynn passed names like Bart Starr, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers (not to mention 4,000-yard passers Lynn Dickey and Don Majkowski) in the Green Bay record books, he clearly played the best game of any passer this week, but where does it rank on the all-time list? And as Flynn enters free agency, what can it tell us about his future potential?

Flynn completed 31-of-44 passes with three sacks, one fumble, and one interception against Detroit. Combined with a couple of rushing plays, that all worked out to 290 DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement - more info available here). That's the third-best game of year - Drew Brees' 412-yard, 5-touchdown game against Minnesota in Week 15 is still tops, and Tom Brady's 361-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Philadelphia in Week 12 is second. No other quarterbacks, though, have played a game this good all season. Not Ben Roethlisberger. Not Philip Rivers. Not Tony Romo or Matt Ryan or Eli Manning or Cam Newton. Not even Aaron Rodgers has played this well in 2011.

Football Outsiders' play-by-play database goes back to 1992, and Flynn's game against Detroit ranks as the 15th best game in that timeframe. The best game belongs to Trent Green, who in 2002 threw five touchdowns against a Miami team that only gave up 20 passing scores all year. Four former Super Bowl winners make the top-15 list: Brady (five times), Brees (three times), Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger.

Maybe Flynn will never win a Super Bowl like those men did. So let's not look at the best quarterbacks who have played this well, let's look instead at the worst quarterbacks to ever hit 290 DYAR in a game. In alphabetical order, that leaves us with Marc Bulger, Randall Cunningham, Green, and Scott Mitchell. The first three names of that list were Pro Bowlers, and the fourth was essentially a league-average starter for a half-decade in the mid-'90s.

Going a little further down the list, down to the 260-DYAR level, gives us more of the same: Pro Bowl quarterback after Pro Bowl quarterback, from Rodgers to Matt Hasselbeck to Carson Palmer to Rich Gannon to Steve Young to Drew Bledsoe to Bobby Hebert to Troy Aikman to Neil O'Donnell to Daunte Culpepper to Jeff Garcia. Obviously, some of those names are a lot better than others, but with the exception of Mitchell, every quarterback who has ever played even one game anywhere near Flynn's level played in Hawaii at least once in their careers. It's only one game, but the simple fact is that mediocre quarterbacks are almost never this good.

On the other hand, it's not the first start of Flynn's career. Last year, Flynn started in Foxborough and completed 65 percent of his passes with three touchdowns. New England's weak secondary had a lot to do with that, but it's still not a game that looks bad on a quarterback's resume.

Matt Flynn is 26 years old. He has four years of apprenticeship on one of the best offenses in the league. His ceiling is Hall of Famer; his realistic floor is Pro Bowler. That's got to be worth more than an unproven rookie, doesn't it?

Flynn is about to enter free agency, but the Packers would never be foolish enough to let him walk away for nothing. They're sure to franchise him and trade him away for picks, just like New England did with Matt Cassel. The Pats sent Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Kansas City for a second-round pick. Given how many teams are desperate for quality passing - Seattle, Miami, and Washington, to name some of the top candidates - the Pack are bound to get more than that for Flynn. Any team that gets Flynn for a first-round pick, though, will have gotten quite a bargain.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Matt Flynn GB 31/44 480 6 1 290 295 -5 We just talked a lot about how good this game was. Well, here's a little more: On deep passes (more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage), Flynn went 5-of-7 for 168 yards and two touchdowns, and also drew a 21-yard DPI call. 2. Drew Brees NO 28/35 389 5 1 238 234 4 With Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines and Tom Brady playing up-and-down against Buffalo, Brees finished the season atop FO's quarterback rankings with 2,544 passing DYAR. That's the second-best season in our database, trailing only Brady's 50-touchdown campaign in 2007. Against Carolina, 21 of his completions went for first downs (including five touchdowns). He had five completions for 20 or more yards, including gains of 31 and 42 yards. 3. Philip Rivers SD 19/26 310 3 1 223 223 0 Second half: 7-of-8 for 139 yards, six first downs, including touchdowns of 13 and 43 yards. 4. Matt Stafford DET 36/59 521 5 2 206 206 0 Calvin Johnson helped, as we'll get to shortly. But Stafford had five other 20-yard completions on the day, and 16 other first downs (including four touchdowns), plus multiple dropped passes that could have led to scores as well. 5. Eli Manning NYG 24/33 346 3 0 196 199 -3 Third-down passing: 8-of-9 for 192 yards and seven first downs, including a 74-yard touchdown, plus gains of 44 and 36 yards. His other completion was a 5-yard gain on third-and-6. He was also sacked once. 6. Carson Palmer OAK 28/43 417 2 1 154 154 -1 Palmer's first three deep passes were incomplete. And then he hit his groove. After that he went 6-of-8 for 212 yards on deep passes, including a 22-yard touchdown. 7. Matt Hasselbeck TEN 22/35 297 2 0 133 133 0 Hasselbeck's third quarter was rather erratic. He went 3-of-5 with a sack, and gained only one first down. On the other hand, that first down was a 55-yard play to Nate Washington. 8. Michael Vick PHI 24/39 335 3 1 124 123 1 With nothing on the line, Vick was content to throw deep over and over again, hoping to at least make SportsCenter a couple of times. He went 5-of-13 on deep balls for 158 yards and a touchdown, with an interception. Only Matthew Stafford (19) threw more deep passes this week. 9. Andy Dalton CIN 22/44 232 0 0 109 110 -1 Dalton's ranking among the top 10 quarterbacks this week is only surprising if you haven't been paying attention to the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens defense finished in the league's top three in completion percentage, yards per pass, touchdown passes, passer rating, and sacks. Dalton's raw numbers - 22-of-44 for 232 yards and no touchdowns - may not look so hot, but considering he threw no picks and was sacked just once, it was really a pretty good day. Dalton also had four 20-yard plays against Baltimore. 10. Tom Brady NE 23/35 338 3 1 104 104 0 Brady's first two passes were incomplete, then he was sacked. By the time the Patriots' third drive started, they were down 21-0. Brady then completed 11 passes in a row for 134 yards and six first downs (including a 39-yard touchdown to Aaron Hernandez). His next 14 dropbacks saw only three completions (albeit for 85 yards) with two sacks, an interception, and a fumble. His last 12 dropbacks saw one incompletion, one sack, and ten completions for 138 yards and eight first downs (including touchdowns of 17 and 7 yards). 11. Matt Ryan ATL 6/9 106 2 0 79 79 0 Ryan actually had the highest DVOA of any starter this week (134.0%), but he mainly handed off before sitting out the final three quarters. His last two passes were touchdowns to Julio Jones for 17 and 48 yards. 12. Kellen Clemens STL 14/31 226 1 1 70 48 22 Clemens' first four third-down plays went sack, sack, incomplete, incomplete. After that, he went 4-of-6 for 91 yards on third downs, with each completion successful, including a 36-yard touchdown to Brandon Lloyd. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Alex Smith SF 21/31 219 1 0 68 54 14 Smith played a part in letting St. Louis crawl back into this game. After his 44-yard completion to Vernon Davis in the second quarter, Smith went 12-of-19 with three sacks, for just 59 net yards and four first downs. 14. Rex Grossman WAS 22/45 256 1 1 60 60 0 At the end of the third quarter, the Redskins were only down 13-7. Grossman's next 11 dropbacks resulted in one sack and ten incompletions. With the game out of reach, he then hit his last two passes for 15 yards and his only first down of the period. 15. John Skelton ARI 22/40 271 1 1 51 42 9 It says a lot about Skelton that he threw 45 percent of his passes to Larry Fitzgerald. It says a lot about the Seahawks cornerbacks that only half those passes were caught. It says a lot about Larry Fitzgerald that those nine receptions resulted in six first downs and 149 yards. 16. Jake Delhomme HOU 18/27 211 1 0 42 42 0 Delhomme threw either very deep or very short against Tennessee. He threw 12 passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. His other six passes went 13 yards or more downfield, an average of 20.3 yards each. 17. Joe Flacco BAL 15/19 130 1 0 41 40 1 Ten of Flacco's 15 completions failed to pick up a new set of downs. Matthew Stafford completed 36 passes, and only nine of them finished short of the sticks. 18. Dan Orlovsky IND 27/40 264 1 2 32 28 4 Orlovsky only thew four deep passes against Jacksonville, going 1-of-4 for 19 yards and an interception. I'll be the first to predict that Andrew Luck will complete more than one deep pass in each of his starts in 2012. 19. Kyle Orton DEN 15/29 180 0 0 26 26 0 In the second half, Orton went 5-of-11 for 52 yards and only two first downs. And yet he was not the worst passer in Kansas City this weekend. 20. Tony Romo DAL 29/37 289 2 1 24 35 -11 First seven dropbacks Sunday night: 3-of-4 passing for 17 yards, no first downs, three sacks. By the time he got his first first down, the Cowboys were down 14 points in the middle of the second quarter. He then hit 13 of his next 14 passes for 156 yards to get Dallas back in the game, but he couldn't maintain that momentum. 21. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 23/40 221 0 0 20 20 0 First half: 13-of-24 for 130 yards, but only five first downs, plus two sacks, -31 DYAR. Second half: 10-of-16 for 91 yards, seven first downs, 52 DYAR. 22. Matt Moore MIA 22/32 135 1 2 15 22 -7 First half: 8-of-16 for 43 yards, four first downs, one sack, two interceptions, -73 DYAR. Second half: 14-of-16 for 92 yards, eight first downs (including one touchdown), 95 DYAR. Yes, the Dolphins managed to win a game in which they averaged 6.1 yards per reception. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Josh Freeman TB 31/45 282 2 3 3 -7 10 Freeman had been sacked twice and thrown two interceptions (including a pick-six) before he hit his first 20-yard gain. 16 of his completions failed to gain a first down, which was the highest total in the league this week. Over the course of the season, Freeman was tied for second in this category. Of course, he was tied with Matthew Stafford and trailing Drew Brees, so we can safely say that non-first down completions are not a sure sign of incompetence. 24. Seneca Wallace CLE 16/39 177 0 1 -22 -34 12 Wallace was pretty useless once the Browns crossed midfield. In the Deep, Back, and Mid zones (from his own goal line to the Steelers' 40), he went 15-for-27 for 165 yards, 10 first downs, one sack, one interception and 13 DYAR. In the Front and Red Zones, he went 1-of-12 for 12 yards, with one first down and one sack, for -47 DYAR. 25. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 29/46 307 2 4 -34 -43 10 First quarter: 13-of-16 for 156 yards, nine first downs (including two touchdowns), plus one sack and one 47-yard DPI call, for a league-high 132 DYAR. Fourth quarter: 5-of-11 for 40 yards, two first downs, three interceptions (including a pick-six), for a league-worst -136 DYAR. 26. Chris Redman ATL 7/12 71 0 1 -41 -41 0 By and large, Redman was much better than the No. 26 quarterback this week, but when the DVOA/DYAR system sees an interception (a pick-six, no less) thrown on first down with a 32-point lead in the second half, it goes crazy and tries to re-write reality like the Scarlet Witch. That one bad throw is worth a whopping -63 DYAR, in part because it was only a two-yard pass (the shorter the pass, the longer the average return, and thus the worse the DYAR penalty for a pick). The average INT this year was worth -47 DYAR, so this was a particulary harsh penalty, although there were several this week that caused even more damage. 27. Cam Newton CAR 15/25 158 1 1 -48 -52 5 Take Newton, for example. His second-quarter interception, on second-and-3 from the Saints' 4-yard line when the Panthers were down just seven points, was worth -73 DYAR. He had plenty of other bad plays, though. In the second half, he went 6-for-11 for 52 yards and only two first downs, although another completion would have resulted in a first down if Steve Smith hadn't fumbled it away. Newton was also sacked once in the second half. It all added up to -34 DYAR. 28. Joe Webb MIN 17/32 200 0 2 -53 -36 -17 Perhaps the weirdest day of the week. In about three quarters of action, Webb managed to complete five passes that each gained 9 yards or more but failed to pick up a first down, including a 17-yarder on third-and-21. He also had a -3-yard run on second-and-5 and a -10-yard run on third-and-4. 29. Christian Ponder MIN 4/10 28 0 1 -64 -64 0 Ponder gained one first down in 11 dropbacks. Meanwhile, he gave up an interception and a sack. 30. Mark Sanchez NYJ 21/32 207 2 3 -72 -70 -2 Two of Sanchez's interceptions were thrown in the backfield, and the other was thrown just 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage. Only one other quarterback threw three interceptions within 1 yard of the line of scrimmage all season: the other New York passer, Eli Manning. 31. Blaine Gabbert JAC 11/19 92 1 0 -78 -78 0 Forgive me, but I feel the need to detail Gabbert's final 11 dropbacks in order: completion for zero yards; 5-yard gain on third-and-8; five incompletions in a row; sack; 8-yard gain on third-and-14; 12 yards and a first down (!!!) on third-and-4; 4-yard gain on third-and-7. Gabbert started 14 games this year, and made the bottom four in Quick Reads eight times. 32. Tarvaris Jackson SEA 21/35 222 1 1 -88 -86 -2 Now here's an amazing stretch of misery. Late in the first quarter, Jackson completed back-to-back passes for negative yards. His next pass gained 23 yards and a first down, but then he was sacked three times in a row. And then he threw an interception. I don't know if you could find six plays so bad out of seven from anyone, all year. Still, Jackson finished 20th in DYAR and 23rd in DVOA. It was the best year for a quarterback in Seattle since 2007. He did it with an undrafted rookie as his leading receiver, and with an offensive line that was missing 60 percent of its starters by season's end, and with a torn pec for most of the year. He showed mental and physical toughness (if not mental or physical talent). He may have started his last game for the Seahawks, but he was easy to cheer for and fun to watch. 33. Tim Tebow DEN 6/22 60 0 1 -93 -67 -27 I'm going to plagiarize myself here, from this week's Any Given Sunday: Tim Tebow's last 14 dropbacks on Sunday resulted in two completions, two sacks, one interception, 7 net yards, oodles of incompletions, no first downs, and ultimately, defeat. 34. Josh McCown CHI 15/25 160 1 1 -137 -147 10 The Minnesota Vikings gave up 34 passing touchdowns this year, with only eight interceptions. They were worst in the league in both categories. In their last three games, they had allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for nine touchdowns with only one interception. McCown threw one of each on Sunday, and considering the opposition, that's a lousy performance. Worse, though, McCown was sacked seven times in 32 dropbacks, and two of those sacks ended in fumbles. Counting his touchdown, he had only five first downs on the day.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Evan Royster WAS 113 0 52 0 63 39 24 Royster makes the "most surprising" list for the second straight week. Royster ran 20 times against Philadelphia. He was stuffed for no gain just once. Half his carries gained 4 yards or more, including gains of 28 and 15, and two of his shorter runs picked up first downs in short-yardage plays. He converted all three of his third-down runs, including a 9-yard gain on third-and-5. Royster also caught five of the seven passes thrown his way for 52 yards. Three of his catches gained first downs. The other two were an 11-yard gain on second-and-13 and a 7-yard gain on first-and-10. 2. Michael Turner ATL 172 2 0 0 59 63 -4 Turner finished second among running backs this week (and first in pure rushing value) even though he didn't play in the second half, and wasn't thrown a single pass was only thrown one pass. His first carry against Tampa Bay gained 26 yards, and his last went for 81 and a touchdown. In between, he averaged 4.3 yards per run and picked up five first downs, including another touchdown. 3. Ray Rice BAL 191 2 8 0 50 50 0 63 percent of Rice's rushing yardage came on touchdown runs of 70 and 51 yards. On his other 22 runs, he gained only two other first downs. On the other hand, he was stuffed for no gain or a loss only three times. He was also thrown two passes, resulting in a 3-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 5-yard gain on second-and-17. 4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE 22 2 53 0 44 19 25 The Law Firm's only target resulted in a 53-yard gain. He only ran seven times, but two of those were short touchdowns, and two others gained first downs. 5. Willis McGahee DEN 145 0 0 0 42 48 -6 McGahee was stuffed for no gain just once in 28 carries. He had four 10-yard runs and three other first downs. His longest run, though, was only 15 yards. He averaged 5.2 yards per run, with a standard deviation of 4.0. For comparison, Rice averaged 8.0 yards per rush with a standard deviation of 16.8.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Peyton Hillis CLE 30 0 -3 0 -39 -9 -30 Hillis' only first down in ten carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers was a 2-yard gain on second-and-1. His only carry in the red zone came with a tie score in the second quarter. Hillis proceeded to lose 4 yards on first-and-goal from the four. The Browns would get a field goal instead of a touchdown on that drive, and went on to lose by four points. The Browns also threw Hillis three passes. Two went incomplete. The third was caught for a loss of 3 yards (and a fumble) on third-and-5.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Calvin Johnson DET 11 17 244 22.2 1 122 Johnson's last game of the season was the best game of the season - not just for him, but for any receiver in the league. Johnson surpasses Wes Welker's 16-catch, 217-yard game against Buffalo in Week 3. Yes, five of the passes thrown Johnson's way were incomplete, but all of his catches gained at least 12 yards and a first down. Seven of them gained at least 20 yards, capped off by a 41-yarder. Nobody else had more than five 20-yard catches in a game this year. On top of all that, he also drew a defensive pass interference flag for a 36-yard gain. 2. Malcom Floyd SD 7 9 127 18.1 1 69 Floyd finished with a DVOA of 51.9%, making him kind of the Sammy Sosa to Jordy Nelson's Mark McGwire (see note below). Each of Floyd's catches produced a first down against Oakland. Six gained at least 10 yards, capped off by a 43-yard touchdown. He also drew a 13-yard DPI flag. 3. Marques Colston NO 7 10 145 20.7 2 69 Six of Colston's catches against the Panthers gained first downs; the seventh was a 14-yard gain on second-and-15. That was also his shortest catch of the day. He had two touchdowns, including a 42-yarder. 4. Jordy Nelson GB 9 15 162 18.0 3 65 At this point, it wasn't too surprising to see Nelson play well, even without Aaron Rodgers. No, we're listing Nelson as a surprising player because his season-long performance was so unexpected. In his first three seasons, Nelson never ranked in the top 20 in DVOA. In 2011, Nelson set a new record with a DVOA of 54.1%. (Aaron had more to say this in his DVOA analysis this week.) Nelson had nine catches in 15 targets against Detroit for 162 yards. Six of his catches produced first downs, including touchdowns of 7, 36, and 58 yards. 5. Antonio Gates SD 5 5 106 21.2 1 56 Gates' first catch was a 5-yard gain on second-and-9. His next four receptions totaled 101 yards and four first downs, including a 38-yard touchdown and another 37-yard play.