If I would have told you at this time last year that we’d see a true freshman quarterback start at least 1 game at half the SEC schools, you would have called me crazy. In fact, I would have called me crazy.

But in this era of the transfer portal, quarterback depth isn’t what it used to be. That’s becoming the new norm in part because of that, and in part because we no longer treat true freshman college football players with kid gloves. It changes things when you watch true freshman quarterbacks start in 3 consecutive national title games (2016-18).

In 2020, there will be SEC teams that turn to a true freshman to start a game. Given the uncertainty at the position in the SEC, maybe there will be even more than 7 teams.

Rosters are never set with the fluid transfer portal, but now that at least the 2020 quarterback signees are in place, I feel like we should have a pretty solid idea of who has the best path to start at least 1 game in 2020. Opportunity is the biggest factor here.

Here are the 5 SEC true freshmen signal-callers who could start a game in 2020:

5. Max Johnson, LSU

Myles Brennan is the overwhelming favorite to replace Joe Burrow. The former 2017 recruit waited his turn. Ed Orgeron went out and got Joe Burrow because he didn’t feel that Brennan was ready to be an SEC starter going into his redshirt freshman season. Now that the “Slim Reaper” isn’t quite as slim, the expectation is that he’ll get to have keys to the new sports car that is the LSU offense. What’s unproven is whether Brennan can physically hold up for an entire season.

The only potential backup standing in Johnson’s way is redshirt freshman Peter Parrish, who signed with LSU before it switched offenses but reportedly made some significant strides in 2019. It still remains to be seen how he’ll stack up executing the system compared to Johnson.

As is the case for most freshmen on this list, the hope is that he can be redshirted. Brennan has 2 years of eligibility left, and in LSU’s perfect world, he’ll become an All-SEC quarterback and continue the new trend in Baton Rouge. But without an unproven quarterback room, Johnson will have a chance to compete and put himself in position to start if the injury bug bites Brennan.

4. Carson Beck, Georgia

I’m a Jamie Newman believer. I like the thought of him running Todd Monken’s Air Raid offense, and I believe the Wake Forest transfer has a legitimate chance to wind up as an All-SEC quarterback. Ideally, Beck will redshirt in 2020.

But considering that the depth behind Newman is a major question mark following D’Wan Mathis’ brain surgery, there’s a scenario that could play out. Georgia’s young but talented offensive line, with so many new parts including a new coach with Matt Luke, is running a new offense with a new starting quarterback. Have I said “new” enough yet? Miscommunications are inevitable. As we know in the SEC, all it takes is 1 miscommunication for a quarterback to be exposed to a devastating hit.

I’m by no means predicting that’ll happen to Newman, but I could certainly see a world in which it does. I don’t know how that depth chart is going to look in a few months. There’s no guarantee that Mathis is going to have an automatic advantage on Beck, who is a 4-star early enrollee coming in at 6-4, 225 pounds.

Kirby Smart turned to a true freshman once when his veteran starter went down. It’s not completely crazy to think he’d be willing to do it again.

With @FrommJake‘s departure, early enrollee Carson Beck will have a chance to compete for the job this spring and summer. @KirbySmartUGA was impressed with what he saw from him before stepping on campus! 📺: Sat at 11am on @wsbtv! #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/NAHw6XvwEd — Bulldogs Game Day (@WSBbulldogs) January 14, 2020

3. Ken Seals/Michael Wright, Vanderbilt

Again, this is about opportunity. I grouped these guys for a couple of reasons. Besides the fact that they’re next to each other in the 2020 quarterback recruiting rankings, I think their path to starting follows the same road. Deuce Wallace, Riley Neal and Mo Hasan are all gone after a disastrous 2019 season.

That means Vanderbilt’s only returning quarterback was Allan Walters, who will make up the quarterback room along with the 2 incoming freshmen, JUCO transfer Jeremy Moussa and JUCO transfer/former Kentucky quarterback Danny Clark.

In other words, yeah, who starts at quarterback in Nashville is anyone’s guess. Vanderbilt brought in Todd Fitch to take over the offense after he helped Louisiana Tech win 10 games in 2019. J’Mar Smith was the Conference-USA Player of the Year playing in an offense that threw the ball an average north of 440 times per season the past 3 years.

My guess is that Clark or Moussa will get the first crack at the starting job. The issue with Seals and Wright is that both were recruited by fired offensive coordinator Gerry Gdowski, and Fitch could prefer to have a veteran back there.

The unproven, uncertain nature of Vandy’s quarterback room, however, is about as clear a path as a freshman quarterback can have to start in the SEC.

2. Harrison Bailey, Tennessee

Do you have any idea what the Tennessee quarterback situation is going to look like in 2020? I don’t. I convinced myself that Brian Maurer was the future, but concussions prevented him from taking over the starting job down the stretch, and Jarrett Guarantano’s up-and-down play was overcome by Jeremy Pruitt’s lights out defense.

Unlike those other 2 signal-callers, Bailey was a Jim Chaney (and Chris Weinke) recruit. At 6-5, 220 pounds, the U.S. Army All-American can already push the ball downfield perhaps better than any quarterback in that room. He enrolled early with the hope of legitimately competing to be Tennessee’s Day 1 starter, and quite frankly, I would by no means rule that out.

The hesitation I’d have is Pruitt wanting to rely a bit more on someone who will take care of the football and let the suddenly loaded offensive line and ground game do the heavy lifting. With a promising defense, as well, the move could be to use Guarantano as more of a — get ready for it — game manager.

But if Bailey balls out in spring ball and looks the part, there’s no telling how much hype will surround his first year in Knoxville.

1. Bryce Young, Alabama

Young is the reason Alabama fans are not sweating the loss of Tua Tagovailoa. The 5-star incoming freshman got that billing because he dominated what many to consider the toughest high school football conference in the country. The Mater Dei (Calif.) product has hopes of following in the footsteps of 2016 Jalen Hurts, who took over the starting gig during the season opener against USC in Dallas.

Young, if I’m predicting today, will not be the starter for Week 1. I have to think that what Mac Jones showed against a pair of Top 25 defenses away from home is going to matter a lot as this battle unfolds. I’m not sure how much Young can really do to prove that he deserves to be the guy from the jump.

But a couple of things are worth remembering. One is that Jones’ sample size, while impressive, was still small. How he reacts to teams having more tape on him remains to be seen. The other obvious factor is the Steve Sarkisian connection to Young. My guess is a hand-picked quarterback — especially one coming in with so much buzz — is going to get the benefit of the doubt over redshirt freshmen Taulia Tagovailoa and Paul Tyson.

In this day and age, 5-star quarterbacks can leave at the drop of a hat. We saw that in the SEC with Justin Fields, Jacob Eason and Shea Patterson, all of whom had different situations, but none of them stayed at their respective schools past Year 2. How Young is used throughout 2020 is going to be a major storyline not just in Alabama, but in the national picture.

One thing I would bet on? Young won’t be used as a glorified running back like Fields was at Georgia in 2018.

Bryce Young cover photo via Twitter @_bryce_young