Mayawati has an ace up her sleeve: a resolution to split UP into four states in order to change the focus of debate in the March assembly elections.

The 2012 elections in Uttar Pradesh promises to be the mother of all battles. It’s a four-way fight, with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Samajwadi Party, the Congress-Ajit Singh combine and the BJP being the principal contenders.

From all accounts, Mayawati seems to be under pressure, but given the caste and religion combos being planned to woo voters from four different directions, no one can say she will not win. In fact, it seems she has her own plans to deflect allegations of corruption and reset the agenda to her advantage.

Her trump card, according to DNA (Daily News & Analysis) newspaper, is that she plans to announce a division of Uttar Pradesh into four states. This will be the cornerstone of her strategy.

The newspaper, quoting unnamed sources, says that Mayawati’s party will table a resolution in the UP assembly on 21 November to divide the state into four parts – Western UP (Harit Pradesh), Central UP, Bundelkhand, and Eastern UP (Purvanchal).

The broad thinking behind this strategy – if it happens as forecast – is to stoke regional aspirations and shift the focus away from her own failings over the last five years.

There is a good chance it could work. It would – at the very least – divide her opposition. While Mulayam Singh’s party – now run by his son Akhilesh – has in the past been opposed to dividing the state, the BJP has always supported the idea of smaller states, while Congress ally Ajit Singh wants a Harit Pradesh in western UP’s Jat belt. If the Samajwadi party is caught in a bind and Ajit Singh suddenly sings a different song from what the Congress has scripted, the two main challengers to Mayawati's rule will be in a state of confusion.

The Congress has been wishy-washy on the idea of smaller states (witness the flap over Telangana), while Amar Singh – who has fallen out with Mulayam Singh – has, in the past espoused the cause of a separate Purvanchal. This could gather steam even in his absence, affecting the Samajwadi party's hopes in eastern UP.

If regional aspirations are going to be used to under-cut the traditional caste-religion combinations that the parties are currently relying on, the poll race could be turned on its head.

Here’s a first-cut analysis of the current gameplans of the various combines and what Mayawati’s gambit could do to them.

Mayawati’s BSP: By proposing a division of the state, Mayawati’s main gain is that she can shift the focus of debate from anti-incumbency to regional aspirations. Her core support base of Dalits and ultra backward castes may remain intact despite Rahul Gandhi's occasional efforts, but the Brahmin-upper caste vote will be tough to retain if the BJP gets its act right or if the Congress is seen as an alternative.

A four-way split in UP means that there is scope for creating more chief ministers in future. And this could solidify support within her own party, since there is now the possibility of breaking through the glass ceiling in the BSP created by having Mayawati as irreplaceable head. More states means more jobs for politicians.

Congress-Rashtriya Lok Dal (Ajit Singh) alliance: This alliance is likely to be most adversely affected by the Mayawati strategy, especially since its expected gains in Western UP will be collared by Ajit Singh – who may have ambitions of becoming CM in his stronghold. The Congress will also have trouble reinventing the old upper caste-Dalit-Muslim combine that kept it in power for so long – and which Mayawati has tried to recreate in her own way, but with Dalits leading the upper castes and a small support base among Muslims.

Samajwadi Party: From all accounts, Akhilesh Yadav’s rise as heir-apparent to the ailing Mulayam Singh Yadav is happening smoothly. His key test is to retain the old Yadav-Muslim alliance in order to dethrone Mayawati. He also has to use the anti-incumbency factor to catapult his party to a better performance. The proposal to split UP is a complication he could do without, since it will confuse issues in the March poll. Moreover, with the Congress making a bid for the Muslim vote, he has to guard his flanks. But as of now, the MY — Muslim-Yadav — combo is more or less intact.

BJP: As the only party without a clear gameplan for Uttar Pradesh, and with no allies to boot, the BJP could be in danger of seeing a further erosion in its support base. It will have to re-energise its troops by trying to regain the old upper caste vote bank and segments of the OBCs – as the selection of Uma Bharti to head the campaign in the state suggests. Mayawati’s plan to split the state is to the BJP’s theoretical advantage, but the party is yet to draw up its strategy. It has miles to go.

In sum: Mayawati's new divide-the-state-and-rule strategy could give her a small edge, but whether it is enough to overcome the anti-incumbency factor or not depends on how the other players play their cards on this issue.