About Last Week

If he says "left foot, maize" I'm in real trouble here (Fuller)

The Road Ahead

Michigan State (4-2, 2-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Penn State, 21-17

Recap: lolwut?

We use the phrase “Peak Sparty” around here a lot, and in a lot of contexts. Indeed, perhaps we overuse it. But if “unranked Michigan State team fresh off a ten point home loss to a bad Northwestern team defeats the #8 team in the country on the road and does so in a fashion that sees them DROP two spots in S&P+” isn’t Peak Sparty, it is only because no prominent MSU player was suspended for the first half of the first play of the game for his involvement a pending RICO case.

I won’t say Michigan State was lucky. That would be a homer-ish thing to say. I would not deign to impugn Brian Lewerke’s 47% completions, or Michigan State’s 1.5-yards-per-play-worse-than-Penn-State performance. I will, however, not-so-subtly gesture towards Bill Connelly, who says that Michigan State was lucky:

Michigan State had a turnover margin that was +4.1 ahead of where national averages suggest it should have been. As each turnover is worth approximately five points, that means the Spartans enjoyed about a 20- to 21-point boost thanks to turnovers luck. In a four-point win. I swear, that happens every single time Sparty plays PSU, Michigan, or Ohio State, doesn’t it...

This was the result of the fact that (1) Michigan State fumbled four time and recovered all four, (2) Penn State fumbled once and lost it, and (3) Penn State defended 16 of Brian Lewerke’s passes, which is an outrageous number, with only one pick. And this isn’t just nerd-theory: Penn State dropped a gift of an interception that would have sealed the game.

This game also featured the most Michigan State drive of all time:

Brian Lewerke run for 11 yards

Run for 4 yards

Incomplete pass

Incomplete pass

Fake punt for 26 yards

Run for 3 yards

Halfback pass for 36 yards to the 1 yard line

Run for no gain

Run for no gain, fumble, recover own fumble

Run for no gain to set up 4th and goal but Penn State commits personal foul to get a new set of downs after an MSU player poked a Penn State player in the eye Three Stooges-style

Run for 1 yard touchdown

81 yards of grit, determination, empty calories, Harry Potter spells, and chicken entrails.

This team is as frightening as: I… have no idea. Usually Michigan is the team onto which Sparty drops the Alpaca Dominating Mediocrity Out Of Nowhere performance. Respect Level = Yes

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After holding their first five opponents to about 26 rushing yards per game at 1.3 yards per carry, Michigan State allowed Penn State to accumulate 205 yards at 6.4 YPC.

Michigan should worry about: More that 60% of those yards came on two big carries by Miles Sanders. The other 30 carries went for 2.6 YPC.

When they play Michigan: I respect this opponent and the things they choose to do and be. Those things are worthy of respect and admiration and additional respect.

Next week: vs. Michigan, noon, FOX (MSU +7)

[AFTER THE JUMP: More respect. Also Rutger.]

Penn State (4-2, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 21-17

Recap: I’m starting to wonder if James Franklin might not have some game management issues.

In three of Penn State’s last dozen games, the Nittany Lions have experienced pretty phenomenal collapses. They had a 15-point lead entering the fourth quarter (and a 9-point lead with five minutes left) against Ohio State last year. They also blew a 12-point lead to Ohio State in the last seven minutes this year. But at least those losses were to highly ranked teams. When you have a 3-point lead with 1:19 left, and give up a 76-yard touchdown drive in less than 60 seconds to an offense like Michigan State’s, which is, let’s face it, couldn’t… [/COMMENT REDACTED FOR RESPEKT PURPOSES]

[/STILL REDACTED. WE HAVE GREAT ADMIRATION FOR OUR SPARTAN BRETHREN]

[/STILL REDACTED. AND I DIDN’T MEAN ‘BRETHREN’ IN THAT SENSE. SIMPLY THAT WE ARE KINDRED SPIRITS. NOT ACTUAL BIOLOGICAL BROTHERS.]

[/ALMOST DONE REDACTING. MUCH MUCH RESPEKT. MUCH]

…raccoon in the engine block.

Penn State is approaching what is suddenly a rather pivotal stretch, but not in the way it had hoped. After Indiana, they have Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin in three consecutive weeks. Win two of those, and while they may not win the East, they keep the program momentum going in the right direction for another year. But an 8-4 season, or even a 7-5 season, aren’t out of the question at this point. That makes for a very different offseason. And trust us, fellas. You want no part of that offseason.

This team is as frightening as: The Army of the Potomac under George McClellan. Sure, it’s got some issues, but it will generally be of superior strength and supply to most armies it could ever encounter in the field. But at some point, someone has to lead this army from a tactical and strategic standpoint. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Penn State may have just wasted their biggest egg-laying on Michigan State.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Joe Moorhead is in Starkville, Mississippi.

When they play Michigan: Someone keep an eye on KJ Hamler plz.

Next week: at Indiana, 3:30 p.m., ABC (PSU -15)

Rutger (1-6, 1-0 Sun Belt)

Last week: Lost at Maryland, 34-7

Recap: Oh come the hell on.

This is the 7th time since 2016 that Rutger has averaged fewer than three yards per pass in a game. Over that stretch, the rest of the Big Ten COMBINED has six such games. Only one other team – Iowa – has had as many as two. This is the sixth time in the last 27 games they have been held to under 50 yards passing. For comparison, in the last 27 games, Georgia Tech – a triple option team – has been held to fewer than 50 passing yards only five times.

Every pass they threw in the last 29 minutes of the game was intercepted. Every. Single. One.

It took Michigan exactly one pass attempt against Maryland to accumulate more receiving YAFHAF (yards after a fullback hurdles a fool) than the Scarlet Knights had total receiving yards in the entire game.

This team is as frightening as: What if this – football, life, Earth – is all a simulation in some super-advanced Sim City program, and the player decides to quit the game? Tell me it isn’t possible; Rutger Football does have the general feel of a kid who got bored and decided to unleash a hurricane and an alien invasion and three dozen riots. Fear Level = 0.6

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Out of 130 FBS teams, Rutger are:

#130 in points per game (15.1)

#128 in yards per play (4.17)

#128 in yards per pass (4.5)

#130 in passer rating (77.3)

#130 in INTs (17) and INT rate (7.5%)

#130 in turnover margin (-13, or -1.86 per game)

#130 in plays of 20+ yards (14)

#126 in average field position (25.7)

#129 in Standard Down Success Rate (34.9%)

Michigan should worry about: Are bees still dying at an alarming rate?

When they play Michigan: The FCC may have to step in.

Next week: vs. Northwestern, noon, BTN (Rutger +20.5)

Indiana (4-3, 1-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 42-16

Recap: Iowa isn’t bad. But they also aren’t this good.

This was a 26-point win in a 10-possession game. That’s a lot. The Hawkeyes thumped Indiana, outgaining them on a per-play basis by nearly two and a half yards. Nate Stanley threw six touchdown passes, which is the first time an Iowa quarterback did so since Chuck Hartlieb in 1987.

Indiana’s offense has been, as we expected, consistent in its mediocrity. But Indiana’s defense, which we actually theorized could be pretty good, has fallen off a bit. They surrendered 7.4 yards per play and 42 points to Iowa. Last week, they gave up 6.6 yards per play and 49 points to Ohio State. And the week before that they gave up 17 points and nearly 5 yards per play to Rutger, which, as you probably remember from earlier, does not have a very good offense.

This team is as frightening as: Yeah, we’re back to this.

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Peyton Ramsey is completing 68% of his passes, which is among the Big Ten leaders and would be Indiana’s best completion rate in recent memory.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Despite that high completion rate, he is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.

When they play Michigan: No injuries no second half targeting no funny business everyone go to class and stay the everloving hell away from Skeeps.

Next week: vs. Penn State, 3:30 p.m., ABC (IU +15)

Ohio State (7-0, 4-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 30-14

Recap: Ohio State got lucky. Not that they won, necessarily, though there was definitely a universe in which they lost this game. No, they were mostly lucky that they stubbed their toe on their own junk on a weekend in which Top Ten teams were just actively hurling themselves into the nearest wood chippers. So no one really noticed.

Ohio State led this game 17-14 at the half, and they were lucky to be up at all. They got a very, VERY generous spot on 4th and short[/turns head slowly, looks directly into the camera], which was somehow upheld on review, [/continues staring unblinking into the camera]and scored a touchdown on the next play. Minnesota flubbed two second half field goals, and Ohio State added a late touchdown to pretty up the score a little bit, but the Buckeyes were favored by 30 in this game.

This team is as frightening as: I had a wonderful and terrible realization recently: This is Mecha-#CHAOSTEAM. They are the spiritual successors to those IU teams that struggle to run the ball (when they bother) and throw the ball a shit-ton, but mostly short stuff, while playing okay defense except for the MASSIVE HILARIOUS BUSTS. Except these guys have more talent than those IU teams could have ever dreamed of. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: What if this Nick Bosa think is just a ruse and he’s secretly just getting ready for the Michigan game.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ohio State’s defense has got some Troubles, with a capital T, and that rhymes with P, and that stands for PCan’t Stop Giving Up Huge Chunk Plays. They game up 7.1 yards per play against Minnesota. Minnesota had only cracked 5 yards per play once this year (against New Mexico State). Ohio State’s S&P+ defense is down to #41 in the country, which his approximately on par with Northwestern (#43) and Maryland (#45).

When they play Michigan: Let’s get through the next couple of weeks before we go down this road, k?

Next week: at Purdue, 7:30 p.m., ABC (OSU -13)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Notre Dame (7-0)

Last week: Beat Pitt, 19-14

Recap:

Pitt built a 14-6 lead by returning the second half kickoff to the house, and missed a chance to build on their lead by missing field goals of 47 and 37 yards. Notre Dame managed to retake the lead at 19-14, and Pitt made possibly the dumbest playcall of the week; they ran a fake punt on 4th and 4 – against Notre Dame’s REGULAR DEFENSE – in which Jeff George, Jr (YTJGJ) rolled out and threw the ball to either the (ineligible) right tackle or the (really ineligible) right guard three yards short of the sticks.

Based on the numbers, Notre Dame would have had to get pretty unlucky to lose this game… but they almost did anyway.

Next week: Bye

Western Michigan (5-2, 3-0 MAC)

Last week: Beat Bowling Green, 42-35

Recap: This was probably Western Michigan’s worst performance of the year. And it still resulted in Bowling Green’s coach getting fired. The Broncos were outgained by more than three yards per play. They outgained BG, but only by running 35 (!) more plays.

Western has struggled all year with giving up big plays (they’re #126 in the country in preventing explosive plays), and that continued this week; they gave up plays of 28, 31, 34, 35, 36, 50, 74, and 76 yards. Fortunately this week they play one of the ten least explosive offenses in the country in Central Michigan. CMU has only 1 play of 40+ yards on the entire season, which is only better than one team in the whole great big entire country.

Take one guess who that team might be.

Next week: @ CMU, 3:00 p.m., ESPN+ (WMU -4)

SMU (2-4, 1-1 AAC)

Last week: Bye

Recap: Yeah like I’m going to talk about SMU unless I have to.

Next week: @ Tulane, 3:30 p.m., ESPNU (SMU +7)

Nebraska (0-6, 0-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 34-31 (OT)

Recap:

Some of you may be aware that I help coach my son’s 5/6-year-old baseball team. And I have noticed that sometimes the encouragement you give to a group of kindergartners (of… let's say, varying skill sets) trying to hit a pitch or field a ground ball could come off as horribly condescending, even if you 100% meant them as a compliment.

/kid misses pitch by 2 feet and 1.3 seconds

“IT WAS A GOOD SWING THOUGH.”

/ground ball rolls through legs at like 2 miles per hour

“YOU ALMOST HAD THAT ONE, BUDDY. GOOD JOB”

/Center fielder tackles third baseman to get a ball hit to the second baseman, picks up ball, throws ball 90 degrees to his target back into right field.

“GOOD HUSTLE, THOUGH.”

Nebraska really is the best 0-6 team in the country. They really are better than their record. They really have shown some encouraging signs. You really can start to see what Scott Frost is trying to do. And this really was probably their most encouraging outing since their opening week loss to Colorado.

That said, what a kick to the dangly bits. Nebraska had a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter, and they took a 10-point lead with under 6 minutes left. They then allowed a 15-play, 62-yard field goal drive (on which they gave up two 4th-and-10’s), went 3-and-out, and then yielded an 8-play, 99-yard touchdown drive. As you would expect in that situation, they then imploded in overtime.

One thing unified Nebraska fans and non-Nebraska fans after this game though: we all came together in universal scorn and derision over this insane USA Today story:

Nebraska would owe Scott Frost as much as $26 million if school decides to terminate embattled football coach https://t.co/jSJZx40LLa — USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) October 14, 2018

Vegas says this is the week they get their first win (though they’re a 2-point dog in S&P+), and WE BELIEVE IN YOU, BUDDY. Juice boxes and goldfish crackers either way.

Next week: vs. Minnesota, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Nebraska -4)

Northwestern (3-3, 3-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Nebraska, 34-31 (OT)

Recap: Northwestern has decided what it wants to be. It wants to be the team that throws the ball 50 times a game at like 6.5 yards per attempt. They’re basically a player in Civilization 3 (the best of the Civ games, don’t @ me) deciding to invade your territory, but doing so with like 60 Spearmen.

If I send enough, statistics say that someone will be able to take down that mechanized infantry carrier

In this case, they let Clayton Thorson throw 64 passes, while only running their running backs 19 times for 39 yards (and a long of 8 yards). And, true to form, this was enough to win the game. Over Nebraska. In overtime. At home. By a field goal. After having to mount a significant comeback.

Might be time to upgrade to pikemen.

Next week: @ Rutger, noon, BTN (NW -20.5)

Maryland (4-2, 2-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutger, 34-7

Recap: Beat Rutger.

Next week: at Iowa, noon, ESPN2 (MD +9.5)