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Fourth-quarter growth is also on track to come in below the Bank of Canada’s 2.5 per cent forecast, which economists said is likely to leave the data-dependent central bank on hold.

“Given the more modest pace of economic growth recently, as well as the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA and the housing regulations, we believe the Bank of Canada will move to the sidelines for a spell,” said Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

The 30 analysts polled by Reuters unanimously forecast the central bank will hold its benchmark rate at 1.25 per cent at its next announcement on March 7.

From there, the median forecast is for a hike in the second quarter and another increase in the fourth quarter, which will bring rates to 1.75 per cent by the end of the year.

While the second-quarter hike is a quarter sooner than anticipated in the last Reuters poll done in January, it still leaves rates at the same level that was expected for 2018. Analysts expect rates to go to 2 per cent in the first quarter of 2019.

Markets see an 80 per cent probability the Bank of Canada will raise rates in May, while a hike is fully priced in for July.

How heavily indebted Canadians will handle the rate hikes the central bank has already put in place is another risk factor policymakers have said they are closely watching.

Consumer debt in Canada has ballooned in the years since the global financial crisis, with much of that going to a housing market where prices have climbed, particularly in the major cities of Toronto and Vancouver.