File photo used for representation

NEW DELHI: Reducing road fatalities by half in India and keeping it at the same level till 2038 could generate additional national income of about Rs 17.64 lakh crore, according to a study conducted by the World Bank and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

The study titled “The High Toll of Traffic Injuries” was released late Tuesday night, analysed the macro-economic impact of road traffic injuries in five low and middle income countries - China, India, Philippines, Tanzania , and Thailand. India has the dubious distinction of maximum road deaths - 1.51 lakh in 2016 - and an old estimate by the erstwhile Planning Commission had projected 3% loss of GDP as the cost of road crashes in India.

More than 60% of people killed on roads in India in 2016 were in the age group of 18 to 45 years, which is the most productive age group.

India is a signatory to the Brasilia Declaration to reduce road fatalities by 50% in another two years. This remains a distant goal as the number of fatalities are in fact on the rise.

“The study shows that by reducing road traffic mortality and morbidity by 50% and sustaining it over a period of 24 years could generate an additional flow of income equivalent to 7.1% of 2014 GDP in Tanzania, 7.2% in the Philippines, 14% in India, 15% in China and 22.2% in Thailand. This puts into perspective the magnitude of economic benefits that the countries may realize with sustained action if they were to achieve the UN targets on road safety,” the report said.

The findings of the study has demonstrated how there is a significant positive effect of reducing road traffic injuries on long-term income growth at the macro-level. The estimates have been calculated based on the effects of road traffic death rates and disability metrics on income growth. The calculation was done taking into account comprehensive dataset of 135 countries collected over 24 years between 1990 and 2014.

The report says the analysis provides evidence that there is an economic loss associated with every year of inaction where the low and middle income countries fail to move beyond their “status quo” performance on road safety and instead steer towards a trajectory of substantial reduction in road traffic injuries and deaths.

Citing an example, the World Bank report mentions how by taking proactive steps Australia brought down its road fatalities from from 30 per one lakh population in 1970 to only five in 2010. These steps included policy interventions for prohibition of drink-driving, the imposition of speed limits, and the introduction of road and car safety devices.

