A “four-headed monster” is attacking Canada’s oilsands, says Steve Laut, executive vice-chairman of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

Too much red tape, costs, fiscal competitiveness in the oilsands and — the toughest adversary of all — a shortage of pipelines are chasing developers away from northern Alberta, he told the Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce on Thursday.

“For future development of the oilsands and thousands of jobs to be created with it, we’re going to have to tame that four-headed monster,” he said. “It should be no real surprise that investment in Canada is not happening and that companies with investment choices are actually exiting Canada.”

Last time Laut spoke to the Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce was in February 2015, when he warned the oilsands faced a “death spiral” if operators did not find ways to cut business costs in the oilsands.

That scenario never materialized, he said on Thursday. Instead, he credited the municipality with rolling out its plan to cut the rural taxes levied against oilsands operators over a 10-year period, as well as technological advancements in the industry, for fighting it off.

But while the global population increases and the quality of life improves in the developing world means energy demands will also grow, Canada’s oil industry is not growing fast enough to meet global demands.

“It’s impossible if you’re in the oil and gas business, or the oilsands business, to actually project whether an approval can even be obtained and the timelines are really too long,” said Laut. “What happens? Capital flows to jurisdictions with certainty.”

In Canada’s case, that country is the United States. Where it was once Canada’s biggest customer for oil, it is now Canada’s biggest competitor in the race to get oil to global markets.

American shale growth has increased by 3 million barrels per day since August 2016, rising from 8 million barrels to 11 million barrels.

In the last 18 months, American oil exports have increased fivefold from 500,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels. Another million barrels in export capacity is being built in the gulf coast.

Laut would later praise the efforts of Premier Rachel Notley and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to get the Trans Mountain pipeline built. However, he also pointed out that much of the infrastructure for this expansion in the United States was created after global oil prices collapsed in late 2014.

“They have market access, they have regulatory efficiency and they have fiscal advantages over Canada,” said Laut. “There’s lots of hard work for us to do to compete. We cannot be complacent.”

In comparison, Canadian export capacity would increase by 1.9 million barrels per day even if the Line 3, Trans Mountain and Keystone XL pipeline projects were built. Canada’s entire oil industry produces roughly 4 million barrels per day.

“Clearly, Canada looks bad. Actually, we look very bad,” said Laut. “Canada’s inability to approve and actually build pipelines stops development.”

Public perceptions of the oilsands are also hurting development, he said, arguing that most opinions are based on “outdated data from may, many years ago.” However, Laut says he is optimistic.

The oil industry is the fourth largest investor in research and development in Canada. Laut credited projects with lower methane and carbon emissions as examples of technological achievements in the industry, as well as carbon capture projects and reclamation advancements.

CNRL is also experimenting with a technology called in-pit extraction, which separates bitumen from sand and leaves behind dry tailings.

If the process is successful — and Laut stressed this technology was in its pilot phase — his company believes it could eliminate tailings ponds.

“We believe we can tame that four-headed monster by working together,” he said. “The oilsands is truly a great Canadian success story and one we should all be proud of. But it can easily turn into what I call a made-in-Canada tragedy.”

vmcdermott@postmedia.com