If you've not seen the Captain America: Civil War trailer, watch it now before reading any further...

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Now let's take a much closer look at the trailer, and potentially what lies ahead for Cap, Bucky, and – given the stakes – the entire Marvel Cinematic Universe.

The analysis in the video above and written below contains a good deal of speculation, with some bits more grounded in fact and quote than others, but since we might strike on the truth, consider this a spoiler warning.

00:05 – The opening shot takes place in the workshop we first saw in the post-credit sequence of Ant-Man. Steve and Sam appear to be interrogating Bucky, whose metal arm is trapped in an industrial vice.

Have they been torturing him? There's what looks like a piece of Bucky's shirt torn-off in the foreground. The last we saw of the Winter Solider was visiting the Captain America exhibit at the Smithsonian museum in Washington, shortly after saving Cap from drowning. There were signs that Bucky's mind was returning.

Some images later in the trailer imply this sequence might take place in Bucharest, Romania.

00:14 – "Your mom's name was Sarah. You used to wear newspaper in your shoes." The dialogue certainly seems to confirm that James Buchanan Barnes has regained his memories. Bucky is back.

00:16 – And this micro-expression from Cap shows what that means. His friend, who was always with him to the end of the line, is back. The trailer positions Cap and Bucky's relationship at the very heart of the movie, the prime motivator for why Cap makes a stand.

00:18 – "You're a wanted man."

"I don't do that anymore."

The dialogue is elided but I think you can infer that Bucky is being accused of new crimes, of which he is innocent.

The shot below shows the destruction of what looks like a gathering of the UN (look at the logo on the lectern). We're not sure if this is the UN's New York HQ, though exterior shots look like it might be elsewhere. Perhaps some sort of summit in Wakanda?

Either way, it's clear a lot of people died. Given the UN's logo appearing later in the trailer on the front of the Sokovia Accords, perhaps this is the event which pushes that controversial piece of legislature through.

We don't buy that Bucky did this. What if Hydra is pinning these attacks on the Winter Soldier as a way to divide earth's mightiest heroes?

00:23 – "But the people who think you did are coming right now..."

What follows are two shots of SWAT teams assembling in two distinct locations which recur multiple times in the trailer. The first depicts a more exotic locale. We think this could be Wakanda, the African nation set-up in Age of Ultron and, of course, the home of Black Panther. In the back of the shot you can spy Crossbones, aka Brock Rumlow – the sleeper HYDRA agent who featured prominently in Winter Soldier. He was severely injured at the Triskelion battle.

00:28 –This shot shows the German Polizei storming a flat in a German tower block. Is this where Cap and Bucky have been hiding out?

00:27 – Who's tipped-off the police? And why are they in Germany? Bucky and Cap obviously both have strong ties to the country given their exploits during the war. Have they returned to help rehabilitate Bucky? To find out what really happened to him?

00:29 – Bucky seems to escape. Does Cap hold off the police to allows Bucky to get free?

00:28 – Here's someone we haven't seen in the MCU for a long time, not since the end of The Incredible Hulk (2008): General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross. From the trailer, he seems to be the main mouthpiece for the Sokovia Accords, the legislature that demands heroes submit to some form of registration and control.

We last saw the General in a sequence tagged onto the end of The Incredible Hulk. Tony Stark pays Ross a visit to discuss The Avengers initiative. You can learn more about the events surrounding that encounter in The Consultant (2011), a Marvel One-Shot which delves into the bureaucracy surrounding the formation of The Avengers and how the Abomination almost made the team.

But what's he been doing for the last 8 years? Is he still working for the government? Is he Hydra? In the Marvel source material, Ross eventually transforms into the Red Hulk. It's possible Civil War might seed this transformation.

Where is Ross? Is this a security facility they've built to contain heroes who refuse to comply with the Sokovia Accords? In the source material, Reed Richards builds a prison in the N-Zone, which probably isn't the case in the MCU for obvious reasons. Has Ross constructed a prison in international waters? Is that water the chopper is heading to?

00:43 – This looks like the new Avengers HQ established at the end of Age of Ultron, a state-of-the-art facility in upstate New York. It's also the place where Ant-Man and

00:46 – Ross is paying the Avengers a visit to outline the Sokovia Accords. The Avengers – being the world's most prominent superheroes and with notable ties to the government via SHIELD – would naturally be the first approached in relation to the bill. Who is Ross speaking on behalf of? The UN? The US military?

00:47 – After everything he's done to save his country and the world, unsurprisingly Cap isn't taking too kindly to the news.

00:48 – 'Farmacia' – could be Spanish, Italian, or even Romanian. There's some other info in the trailer that has us leaning towards the last option.

We think this happens before the interrogation scene in the warehouse, before either Cap or Falcon has tracked down Bucky.

00:53 – Ross tables the Sokovia Accords, the document which precipitates the Civil War. In Mark Millar's wildly influential comic series, superheroes faced the Superhero Registration Act. The Sokovia Accords appears to be very similar. Its subtitle – Framework for the Deployment of Enhanced Individuals – implies a degree of governmental regulation. There are very few secret identities in the MCU, so it's more an issue of control than privacy.

The new name also reflects recent events in the MCU. Sokovia is the fictional Eastern European nation that was destroyed at the end of Age of Ultron, and it's also the home of Scarlet Witch and Quicksilver. This bill was likely drawn up following its obliteration, but we reckon the more recent terrorist-like events alluded to in the trailer, especially the one on the UN itself, result in the bill being passed.

At the bottom of the bill, if you're looking at a high-res copy of the trailer, you can seen the bill is supported by the United Kingdom of Great Britain, Austria, Germany, Russia, Italy, France, what looks like Northern Ireland (which is politically distinct from Great Britain), and the United States of America.

00:57 – Bucky weaves in-and-out of traffic. Look closely – as did IGN reader cristianr_1982 did in the comments below – and you'll spot the taxi's licence plate indicates we're in Romania. The plate begins with a B, suggesting we're in the capital city of Bucharest. Is this wear Bucky is hiding prior to Cap finding him? Incidentally, Bucky is played by Sebastian Stan who was born in Romania.

01:09 – Cap surrenders in Germany. The help of Polizei implies this isn't just an American issue anymore. There's a real international flavour to the Civil War, implying this is now very much a global issue.