Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals.

Batters

Despite various trials and assorted tribulations, Josh Hamilton still posted the second-best WAR (4.4) among Rangers batters in 2012 — and averaged about 4.5 wins per season during his five years in Texas. Replacing Hamilton in 2013, barring any substantial acquisitions, will be a combination of David Murphy (in left field) and a platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry (in center) — although, because Murphy and Gentry received considerable playing time in 2012 (521 and 269 plate appearances, respectively), Martin is the only real new variable in the Rangers outfield equation.

By regressed batting, Martin was one of the best prospect-age batters (i.e. age 24 or younger) in the Pacific Coast League, exhibiting the capacity both to control the strike zone and hit for modest power. That’s certainly promising, but ZiPS indicates that Texas might still be at a deficit in the outfield owing to Hamilton’s departure.

Pitchers

After Detroit, the Texas pitching staff posted the highest WAR in the majors last season. ZiPS forecasts ace Yu Darvish actually to exceed his 5.1 WAR and 89 ERA- from 2012.

Despite the departures both of Scott Feldman (to the Cubs) and Koji Uehara (to the Red Sox), Texas still has some depth. That some of the most interesting pieces (Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Joakim Soria) will begin the season on the disabled list, however, clearly isn’t entirely ideal. The acquisition of Soria in particular — who was signed to a two-year, $8 million contract in early December — has the potential to prove quite deft, should Soria approach his form from before Tommy John surgery.

Bench/Prospects

Shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar (a) turns 20 in February and (b) is already regarded by ZiPS as the team’s third-best field player. Unlike Leonys Martin (mentioned above), Profar really does seem like a player who could almost entirely mitigate the loss of Josh Hamilton — less by means of his power, of course, and more by his defensive skills and plate discipline. Finding a position for him is a question that exists for which the answer remains an unsolved mystery — almost like a television show hosted by Robert Stack about hitherto unsolved mysteries. Many of the things one might say about Profar can be said about Mike Olt, too — except that he’s from Curaçao, because he’s not.

Depth Chart

Here’s a rough depth chart for the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.