You hear “pay up for pitching in cash” quite often. Well, it may not have worked for the 70% of you that rostered Liriano or Velasquez last night, but I think if you review your lineup you will see how important it is to nail that pitcher correctly. Is it going to happen everyday? No, that’s unrealistic. But, it should be your primary goal day in and day out. Imagine your score with an extra 30 points to it. Would you have crossed the cash barriers? Would you have finished much closer to the top of those leagues? I bet your answer is yes. And, it should be. Pitching is the single most important position in a cash game.

However, GPPs are a bit different. Check this LU out from our other lead contributor Keith Hall aka Boomersdaddy…..

He may have gambled a bit on the pitcher (which is fine, and actually smart, in GPPs), but he hit on both pitcher and bats hard enough to drag down a nice win. I’ll never say no to $500 smackeroos. Great job, and another victory for @dfsarmy!

I won’t get too much into breaking down the LU because we have a slate to break down. But, it should be noted that in the Army (www.dailyfantasyadvice.net) we teach you the techniques and strategies to build competitive, winning LUs like this. We also have baseball minds at the ready in our Slack Channels advising our platoon in player picks, construction strategies, roster moves and lineup changes, and the ever-present discussions of this player over that one. Join us!

First, an overall view of our games today, where they are played, Vegas view, run line, relevant weather and start times.

Home and away teams are pretty simple. Pitchers tend to pitch better at home.

Weather matters huge in MLB. Green is good, red is bad. Anything over a “5” should give you pause in rostering a pitcher. Hitters aren’t as affected, but warming up and shutting down and warming up and shutting down isn’t something managers like to do to their pitchers. Any delays will shorten the “lifespan” of your pitcher and affect the opportunity he has to score you points. A “0” indicates a dome team.

Favored team according to Vegas. Vegas P gives the moneyline and by how much the favored team is favored. The bigger the number, the better our pitchers has a shot at earning the win. I typically look for a number larger than 150. Vegas B shows how many combined runs Vegas is projecting the hitters to score. For hitters, the bigger the better. For pitchers, the smaller the better. The last thing you want is your pitcher on the mound in a slugfest.

Park Factor is a rating assembled by combining historical numbers of runs and home runs scored over the past few seasons. This rating is expressed in comparison to the “average” ballpark. Average is a score of 100. The greater the difference from average, the more the park favors hitters (greater than 100) or pitchers (less than 100). This number is not foolproof, though. For example, if we assembled a team of weak hitters and had them play half their games in a great ballpark, we would undoubtedly see a suppressed ballpark factor rating. But, it does give us a great idea on a given slate where we may/may not see runs scored. Use in conjunction with the Vegas B column. If you see a green number in both columns, you can consider rostering hitters from that game.

In researching pitchers, I want a heavy favorite in Vegas, a red number in Vegas B, and good weather. I also want to see a ballpark that’s bad for hitters, if possible. That’s really about it to narrowing down my list of choices for who I’ll start as a pitcher.

In researching hitters, I want a green Vegas B number, good weather (but it doesn’t have to be perfect), and a hitter’s park to play in, if possible. But, mostly I want terrible pitching on the mound. This is indicated by high run totals (green Vegas B) and even the Vegas P column because a team that is heavily favored “can be” facing terrible pitching. But, that’s getting a bit specific for this quick-hitting column. That simple graphic can really tell you a lot in 30 seconds.

**In case I haven’t mentioned it, and you don’t know where to find the DFS ARMY, just look HERE. We are a growing community of soldiers dedicated to teaching YOU how to build better LUs through education, not selling player picks. Sure, we have premium content if you want a little extra depth, but we don’t have anything lined up for MLB until at least May. So, get in while it’s a free-for-all and see if you like us. You can follow us on Twitter with @ffootballgeek, @dfsarmy, or by hashing our LU clubs….. #50Club for NHL, #300Club for NBA, #Club200 for MLB and see the lineups we’ve taught our platoon to build. Also, #Learn2Build is another great one we use.**

Let’s get it on for Tuesday, April 20th!

15 game All-Day slate, 3 game Early Only, 12 game Main………and smaller Evening ones might come out. As usual, though, I’m focused on the Main slate here.

Weather concerns in STL only today. Yesterday didn’t bother me. Today does somewhat. This system is slowly moving across our area and is centered on us more today than yesterday. Anything that does fall from the sky appears to be light in nature, but I wouldn’t completely rule out things picking up a little. Actually, let’s look at a radar shot and I’ll explain why…

You are looking at the current radar as of 930 am Eastern Time. The rain appears to be moving out of the area, following the direction of the arrows. However, there is a new line trying to fire up in the red circle. It will move along the same direction and this spot puts anything that develops in the STL area about noon. So, depending on how much, if any, rain develops and how heavy it is……we may have something to watch. I’m point this out so you can see how it may pop up at the last minute and you can understand why the 50/50 nature of the forecast. Ok, on with the rest of the slate.

TIP: Yesterday, we looked at OPS and wOBA a lot for the past 7 days. I do look at those stats a lot to determine who is hitting well. Fact is, these guys will also regress to the mean and cool off. We just don’t know when. Some will cool off that day. Some will continue on their run for a month. That said, I noticed something worthy of pointing out that I’m also going to incorporate since it makes sense. Right now, DraftKings is changing prices more often than FanDuel. DK also takes matchups with pitching into play in their pricing. They are very sharp currently with prices. Since FD isn’t reacting as quickly, we can use the price gaps as an indicator as to how much more DK likes a matchup than FD. For example, yesterday the Royals were all over this pricing gap and they went off. I find that a funny coincidence and one to watch going forward. If I see a player at $3000 on FD and $4500 on DK, I’m going to bump that player in my recommendations for that day because it’s a sign DK adjusted the price up to account for a softer matchup on paper. DFS players need to look for anything they can when breaking ties between players.

PITCHERS

There are a ton to choose from today. No super clear cut favorite. If you are playing the Early Only, I would actually ask you to look into Raul Iglesias for CIN. He’s not in a bad spot, but obviously can get blown up in a hurry facing the Rockies bats in that ballpark. It also takes Rockies bats out of play for you on a 3 game slate…..making a very contrarian GPP play should it work out.

Madison Bumgarner ($10,800) – I’m on him for a lot of reasons, but there is a price gap like we just talked about. MadBum is $11, 400 on DK. MadBum possesses good strikeout stuff even if it hasn’t quite materialized yet this season. Vegas likes this game for him as good as any on the slate at -135 in the Giants favor. Low total at 6.5 and in a park that is very hard to hit in at night for power. Only knock is facing Greinke (but it’s not like he’s been sharp either), which might keep scoring so low MadBum is pulled from the game before a decision gets reached. Arizona also currently ranks 6th in the league in strikeouts. That’s a nice matchup for Bumgarner.

Danny Salazar ($9200) – Low total, pitcher’s park, another strikeout whiz facing a team prone to striking out somewhat. Vegas likes Salazar, too. Another way to go for sure.

Cole Hamels ($9900) – Facing HOU at Rangers Stadium is playing Russian Roulette again, but it’s one of the better pitching matchups on the board imo today. HOU is whiffing at a pace like last season, so the floor is there. They are a power team and that makes me nervous, but sometimes you just have to ride the lightning. Vegas sort of likes Hamels, but this won’t be a shutout.

If I’m going cheap, I’m looking at Ubaldo Jimenez ($7900), Julio Teheran ($7700), or even Jeff Locke ($5800).…..but talk about riding the lightning!

CATCHERS

Brian McCann ($3200) – Just get in the habit of rostering McCann vs righties at home. He has cooled off of late, but it’s just always a good spot when not facing ace-quality pitching. There is also a DK Price Gap (DKPG) here of note.

Jerrod Saltalamacchia ($2900) – I just did that without looking, but it still sucks to type that name. Damn is he running hot, though. Not the best matchup, but hot is hot is hot…..just ask the Mets.

Look, I tend to go cheaper with catchers because most of them hit near the bottoms of their orders. And, they are usually cheap and an easy way to save some cap space. Punting catcher is my most common punt play.

Also consider: Cerevelli (PIT), Gattis (HOU), Martin (TOR), Norris (SDP)

1st BASEMEN

Mark Teixera ($3400) – Another guy better vs RHP at home. Big Teix was built for the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium. Kendall Graveman doesn’t scare me in the least. The entire left-handed Yankee staff is in a good spot including the vendor cracking beers open with his left hand. Teix has been just “ok” past 7 days with .372 wOBA and .777 OPS with a homer, but this is just a solid spot for him.

Prince Fielder ($3000) – With a .400 wOBA vs RHP, we are working the splits for a hitter in the heart of the order trending upwards this week. Prince is cleared for launch vs the mediocre Fister.

Ryan Howard ($2600) – Yes, Chop looks at BvP. But, it’s down the list. Howard is just too cheap right now and catches my eye looking for good spots. When you do get to BvP it’s undeniable…. in 20ish ABs, we get a .357 wOBA but 3 homers vs Colon, and Colon isn’t fanning hitters like in his youth. Underpriced hitter with good previous history facing a pitcher on the decline? Yes please.

Also consider: Pujols (LAA), Lind (SEA), Duda (NYM), Zimmerman (WAS)

2nd BASEMEN

Jose Altuve ($4900) – The .589 wOBA, 1.42 OPS, and 4 dongs speak volumes in how hot this guy is. It goes a little against the DK Price Gap (DKPG) being that he’s more expensive on FD, but it’s still paying off. I’m not off this train just yet. I just wish the rest of the Stro’s would chip in again.

Brian Dozier ($2900) – Like Tulowitzki, it’s just a matter of time now. Way too cheap for what he can do. Jimmy Nelson in Miller Park might be the time. I’m buying low on this guy as the rest of the Twins start coming to life. Hitting can be contagious.

Neil Walker ($2900) – Holy shit this guy’s hot! 5 HRs this past week to go with a .489 wOBA is pretty awesome stuff. It might be chasing numbers a little, but this is exactly where I look to the DKPG. $2900 on FD and up to $3800 on DK. This tells me he is still a bargain on FD and sort of justifies the continued chasing of points hoping he just keeps ringing Bello de la Dongo over and over again like the Hunchback of Notre Dame.

Also consider: Odor (TEX), Utley (LAD), Phillips (CIN), Gennett (MIL), Kenrick (LAD)

SHORTSTOPS

Eduardo Nunez ($2800) – This is your current hot hand at the position flashing us like on a NYC subway with a wOBA of .503 and an OPS of 1.17 over the past 7 days. Leading off, he gets all the production the Twins can offer us. Until Tulo heats up a bit more, I might choose Nunez over him at this price.

Cory Seager ($3400) – Nice spot here if you aren’t running Teheran out as your pitcher. Industry models are indicating an LAD stack might be in order here. I can’t say he’s hot, but I can a lot of arrows are pointing at him today for some reason, including the DKPG where he has been priced up to $4000.

Brad Miller ($2200) – This is a nice punt at the position. I might prefer Alcides Escobar, but won’t fault you here either. I’m not choosing him for this reason, but if you want the dumbest BvP stat I can ever throw at you, look here……….2 for 2 in his career vs Porcello, both homers! Yeh….so that means we auto-roster him because he will go 4 for 4 today with everything going over the wall. Sure. Go for it. I’m actually rostering him because he’s in a good spot. The BvP here is completely insignificant.

Also consider: Correa (HOU), Tulo (TOR), Cabrera (NYM), Escobar (KCR)

3rd BASEMEN

Manny Machado ($4600) – Manny the Monster is hot this week again with the .509 wOBA and 1.20 OPS with 2 dongers. He faces knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, which none of the Orioles have great numbers against. I’m not too worried because Manny is seeing the ball well and I don’t feel he’s overpriced yet.

Danny Valencia ($2400) – But if you want to go cheaper, look here. Good spot vs Eovaldi and a full 1k DKPG tells me the industry agrees and is trying to protect against people rostering up here. There is nice value here, and from my experience, the Athletics have to get white hot before people start buzzing about them.

Also consider: Longoria (TBR), Wright (NYM), Franco (PHI), Turner (LAD)

OUTFIELDERS

Michael Conforto/Yoenis Cespedes/Curtis Granderson (NYM) – These guys are pretty hot and in the values of Conforto hitting third and Granderson leading off their prices border on must play at this point. I list it this way because they are all in play as a unit or individually. You may want to mix and match a few OFs this way today.

Jacoby Ellsbury/Brett Gardner/Dustin Ackley (NYY) – This is another just like the above. Their prices for their matchup is pretty value laden. Consider the speed at the top of the Yankee LU and the fact again that we love lefties facing righties inside Yankee Stadium and you’ll see why this stack plays.

Angel Pagan/Hunter Pence (SFG) – This might be more GPP oriented due to facing Grienke, but I looked at the BvP here and nothing special popped out. In fact, these guys haven’t done much. But, Span is priced correctly between sites, so maybe they know something I don’t. If you are into hunches, this one will certainly be low owned.

Also consider: Desmond (TEX), Burns (OAK), Werth (WAS), Sano (MIN)

I have to run and accomplish some other things today, but you can get a sense of the pitching and stacking matchups I like from the above information. Make it a great day!