The wise choice

As we look ahead to the end of this century, we have a choice. If we take aggressive action to address climate change, and succeed in slowing the acceleration of sea level rise, many communities—nearly 400 identified by this analysis—could avoid chronic inundation this century. If, however, sea levels rise along the high scenario, those communities face the risk of chronic inundation by 2100.

At this crossroads, reducing global warming emissions must be a national priority. The US can still make deep cuts in heat-trapping emissions and contribute to global efforts to limit climate change. We can still avoid some of the most serious human consequences and losses that our coasts face this century.

We have time to respond. We must use it wisely.

Methodology and assumptions

The methodology and assumptions used for this analysis are published in the peer-reviewed journal, Elementa. Download the PDF.

For additional information, please see the full report.

Disclaimer

This research is intended to help individuals and communities better appreciate when sea level rise may place existing communities at risk of tidal flooding.

The projections herein are made to the best of our scientific knowledge and comport with our scientific and peer review standards. They are limited by a range of factors, including but not limited to the quality of the underlying data, the resolution of coastal elevation models, the potential installment of defensive measures not captured by those models, and uncertainty around the future pace of sea level rise. More information on caveats and limitations can be found at: www.ucsusa.org/RisingSeasHitHome.

Neither the authors nor the Union of Concerned Scientists are responsible or liable for financial or reputational implications or damages to homeowners, insurers, investors, mortgage holders, municipalities, or other any entities. The content of this analysis should not be relied on to make business, real estate or other real-world decisions without independent consultation with professional experts with relevant experience.