Jeremy Jeffress will finish the year as a top 10 closer. Whether it's with Milwaukee or another team remains to be seen. Hypothetically, a trade to a contender could do wonders for his value, but for the time being he is stuck in Milwaukee and still ranks as a must-own closer. Currently, Jeffress is tied for eighth in the majors with 16 saves and has only blown one chance so far.

There is reason for skepticism though. A recent shaky appearance against Oakland, which he still managed to convert, raised his ERA to 2.93. His 6.51 K/9 is underwhelming by modern standards, especially for a fireman. The recent return of southpaw Will Smith may even cut into Jeffress' save opportunities. So, what should make fantasy owners optimistic going forward about Jeffress' projections for the remainder of the season?

First of all, let's talk control. Jeffress has only walked five batters this year, good for a 1.6 BB/9 and a 4.4% BB%. Although his strikeout numbers aren't exceptional, he has a solid 4.00 K/BB ratio that has consistently increased each year since he broke into the majors in 2010. He doesn't hand out free passes and in key situations, Jeffress hasn't folded. Example:

The other trend that bodes well for Jeffress is an increase in his O-Swing%, up 10 points from his career average of 29.0% to 38.8%. Combine that with a decrease in O-Contact%, down from 63.8% to 57.9%, and hitters are looking more foolish against him this season, despite higher stakes situations. Jeffress knows how to get batters to chase without wasting pitches. For your viewing pleasure, two variations of the same theme:

Sometimes I rhyme slow...

Sometimes I rhyme quick...

The main area he can improve is his 24.7% LD%. He could stand to miss a few more bats, as I mentioned earlier, even though it hasn't really come back to bite him yet. Although he has seen a drop in his personal HardHit% ratio to 19.5%, that number needs to drop further. Batters are making contact here and there, but Jeffress hasn't been costing the Brewers games. He has just one loss and one blown save to his name in 28 appearances.

He totally planned that...

He knows how to cover first base too. Don't worry, I'm not going to start introducing a bunch of fielding stats now.

Finally, the primary stat you want to see on the rise is swinging strike percentage. Jeffress is currently posting a 12.1% SwStr%, which is nearly 3 points higher than league average and is also the highest in his career.

According to the Piggly Wiggly strike zone tracker, that was a high strike. It never lies.



Jeremy Jeffress has had doubters all year, but he is used to it. The former first-round pick has failed two drug tests for marijuana, which he used as a way of coping with epilepsy. He has been traded and then was outrighted by Toronto before catching on with Milwaukee again. Jeffress has been underestimated by fantasy owners as well and still isn't owned in nearly 20% of leagues despite the dearth of secure closers. Many people assume Will Smith will eventually take over the role, but the reality is that Smith has no more experience saving games than Jeffress did before this season started. Jeffress has done nothing to deserve demotion and has shown no signs of crumbling under pressure. Don't feel compelled to sell high on Jeffress if you own him and don't hesitate to make a deal for him should another owner in your league be willing to deal.

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