No sooner was the Brexit out of the bag than Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, deputy first minister for Northern Ireland, declared the need for a poll on Irish reunification. Northern Ireland voted decisively to remain in the EU. By McGuinness’s logic, this means that the “British government has forfeited any mandate to represent the economic or political interests of the people”.

Opportunistic? Of course. Disingenuous? Maybe. The Good Friday agreement, which created peace in the north, allows the secretary of state to call a border poll when there’s clear indication that public opinion has swung towards a united Ireland. Currently, there’s no such indication – the people of Northern Ireland voted against leaving the EU, which is markedly different from voting to leave the UK.

It’s time to redouble efforts to create cross-community understanding

A border poll at this juncture would be dangerous. Think the build-up to Brexit was polarising and scary? Add a few centuries of colonial history, a partition, 30 years of sectarianism and violence, a fragile peace of less than two decades, a severe terror threat, a quarter tonne of semtex, a wee dash of Brexit-induced socio-economic insecurity, and the frustration caused by one’s English compatriots voting to pull the rug out from under a painstakingly crafted peace process, then tell me about polarising and scary.

So it is probably best that we chill on the reunification rhetoric for the minute. That said, I do think the aftermath of Brexit has the potential to strengthen Northern Ireland’s connection to the Irish Republic. If and when that happens, we’ll talk border polls.

But first things first: at this delicate juncture, the priority has to be safeguarding the peace process. One of the greatest challenges is the likely reinstitution of a physical border between north and south. The border checks of the Troubles were, for many, militarised sites of fear and oppression, and the free passage from north to south that citizens and travellers now enjoy is an auspicious sign of the peace process working.

The psychological impact of border checks on those who lived through the Troubles, on those who are finally learning to live with a new geography, cannot be overstated. For the 25% of people in the north who, according to the 2011 census, consider themselves to be Irish only, a newly reinforced border is a provocation and an injury.

Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and a Brexiter, claimed during campaigning that the common travel agreement (CTA) between Ireland and the UK would prevent border checks from becoming necessary. However, a policy paper published by academics at Newcastle and Durham universities is blunt in its refutation of the post-Brexit power of the CTA: there is “virtually no possibility” that the border will continue operating as it is. As it explains, “the UK-Ireland border would represent an external border to the EU as a whole. There are no other ‘external’ EU borders that do not come with border controls.”

It is perhaps best, then, that we come to terms with the discomfiting idea that Ireland will, in a sense, be partitioned a second time. And, yes, this could unsettle the peace. All parties: the UK, Northern Ireland, the Republic and the EU, need to do everything in their power to ensure that the border they create is one that fits the contours of our past and our present.

Given the likelihood of strengthened partition, why do I think that, in the long term, Brexit could mean stronger ties between Northern Ireland and the Republic? First, as is well documented, Northern Ireland has a post-Brexit advantage over other areas of the UK in one important sense. The Good Friday agreement allows the people of Northern Ireland to hold a British passport, an Irish passport, or both. On Friday, Google reported a surge in Northern Irish searches related to Irish passport applications.

Dual citizenship means, of course, that the Northern Irish, as opposed to other UK citizens, will be able to travel, live and work freely in Europe. But, more, when the dust settles, Ireland will likely have a strong comparative advantage in attracting companies that want an English-speaking workforce and access to the world’s biggest common market. There may well be more jobs for the Northern Irish down south than in Belfast or London. More northerners with Irish passports living and working in the Republic can’t help but reorient the region in terms of belonging and identification.

Next, the decisive remain vote in the north was achieved in spite of low turnout in nationalist areas, indicating a strong unionist desire to remain part of Europe. Obviously, for the 40% of Northern Irish who consider themselves “British only”, this desire plays a soft second fiddle to their national identity. But for the 20% who consider themselves “Northern Irish only” European music might sound increasingly sweet as the economic and practical repercussions of Brexit materialise.

Northern Ireland’s substantial economic growth since the Good Friday agreement is heavily indebted to EU funding and initiatives: there will be economic fallout, many will feel betrayed by the UK, and that could seismically shift the political landscape of the north.

Now is not the moment for nationalists to pursue measures that might destabilise the peace process. Rather, it’s time to redouble efforts to create cross-community understanding, stability and a strong Northern Irish identity. As the shock waves of Brexit dissipate, Northern Ireland will soon find which side of the border its bread is buttered.