Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — October 5th, 2017

Last week I touched on Joe Mixon, Terrelle Pryor, the Panthers’ receivers, Raider studs, and the continued ascension of DeVante Parker. While week 4 may give immediate credence to the detractors of my previous analysis, I believe with righteous certainty that my predictions ring true by season’s end. In fact, there are tantalizing opportunities to sell high and buy low for the savvy trader. As with every edition of this weekly column, I will apply statistics to context in an effort to uncover what is to come in the wild world of fantasy football.

Give Aaron Jones a shot

Aaron Jones via Wikimedia

Ty Montgomery is dealing with multiple broken ribs. The same Ty Montgomery hopes to play this upcoming weekend. The NFL is a dog-eat-dog business and many starting running backs have a tenuous hold on their job. Demarco Murray powered through a hamstring injury just two weeks ago with Derek Henry pushing for a bigger workload.

A quick profile on Aaron Jones: At 5’9”, 208 lbs., he’s agile and explosive, with a frame roughly the size of Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy. He dominated the backfield workload at UTEP, averaging an insane 7.7 YPC. In addition, Jones is a terrific pass-catcher who should be able to fill in perfectly on all three downs in a way Jamaal Williams (knee sprain) never could. If the Packers opt to play Montgomery this week, he risks dramatically worsening his injury. If the Packers do the right thing and let Montgomery rest, Jones could shred a Cowboy’s defense reeling from the latest Todd Gurley beat-down. He’s worth a flex start this week and has the ability to carve a larger role should he find success, considering Montgomery’s insane snap share pre-injury.

Trade for Mark Ingram

Breakaway Mark Ingram via Flickr

One thing has become abundantly clear: This is now a two-man backfield. The Saints are simply too limited in their attack when catering to Adrian Peterson’s running style. One would think that All Day would see an abundance of carries to close out the Dolphins, a game the Saints won 20–0. Instead, Alvin Kamara dominated the receiving role with 10 catches to Ingram’s 4 and Peterson’s 0. Even with the presence of Kamara, Ingram has 15 catches on the year, good for 14th in the league. His role as the primary ball carrier stands to increase in value as the Saints’ offensive line returns to full health. The unit was first in the league in run blocking in 2016, when Ingram averaged 5.1 YPC. While everyone is drooling over Kamara’s recent rampage, a positive touchdown and efficiency regression lies in the near future of Mark Ingram.

The Bills’ defense is legit

Via Flickr

Like many others, I interpreted the trading of Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby as the Bill’s new regime choosing to start from scratch. Instead, Buffalo is sitting pretty at 3–1, good for first in their division. The offense has been as expected, with an emphasis on winning in the trenches and controlling the ball. The defense, however, has been the real story and should be an avoided match-up in fantasy football. Through four games, opposing QBs are averaging 203 passing yards, 1.5 interceptions, and .25 touchdowns. Among these QBs are Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. Although there has been an uptick in rushing efficiency against the Bills in the past two games versus the Broncos and Falcons, opposing running backs have only scored 2 total rushing touchdowns, averaging a sub-par 3.86 YPC. Consider rostering or streaming the Bills defense, as they have scored no less than 7 fantasy points in a game by standard criteria, facing some solid competition along the way.

Melvin Gordon sadness :(

2016 Melvin Gordon explosion via Giphy

Melvin Gordon is a personal favorite, but he can’t seem to stay healthy. His bone bruise is the most recent concerning sign. When we consider that it’s same knee where he had microfracture surgery and a PCL sprain over the past two seasons, the outlook grows darker. Microfracture surgery is a procedure that has mixed results, where some athletes return to form and others suffer from chronic knee issues, zapping their explosiveness. Bone bruises, while common, can cause fluid to build up in the knee and are sometimes linked to ligament damage. What we know for certain is there aren’t any positives to damaging the same knee three consecutive seasons. While Gordon claims to be fine and appears to have retained his athleticism, his efficiency remains abysmal, trudging to 3.1 yards per carry this season. Thus far, he’s stayed in the RB1 conversation thanks to his pass-catching ability and touchdown scoring rate. Unfortunately the latter attribute will likely experience regression, as he only has 1 goal line carry thus far and 6 red zone touches, equal to the aforementioned Mark Ingram. Ingram, by comparison, has 0 touchdowns to Gordon’s 3.

Baltimore Ravens’ offensive amnesia

Joe Flacco doing Joe Flacco things

The debate for the worst offense this season isn’t between the Browns and the Jets as one might have expected (yes, they are bad), but rather the Ravens and the Dolphins (somehow worse). The Dolphins know what they want to do — run the ball early and often — they just haven’t been able to. It’s the same strategy Adam Gase exercised the previous season. The Ravens on the other hand, have gone from the most pass happy offense in 2016, to 23rd in the league so far this year. Baltimore’s preparation for this drastic change? Sign a 32 year old satellite back coming off an ACL tear. Even after the loss of cornerstone lineman, Marshal Yanda, they’ve stuck with their run-first game plan. How do you run the ball with a collection of broken and/or mediocre running backs behind an offensive line ranked 22nd in blocking efficiency? The simple answer: You don’t. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has been an abomination. Despite being 21st in pass attempts, he’s 32nd in passing yards, averaging a laughable 150 yards per game. He has yet to break 240 yards in any contest thus far. Baltimore’s receivers have struggled to gain separation, and without a viable run game, there’s little hope for routes to develop down field off the play action. Flacco and the gang are lost with no clue of who or what they are.

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