De-policing and crime in the wake of Ferguson: Racialized changes in the quantity and quality of policing among Missouri police departments

Highlights • We examined whether “de-policing” has occurred among a sample of Missouri police departments in the wake of Ferguson. • Results indicate that agencies made fewer traffic stops but yielded higher contraband “hit rates” in 2015 compared to 2014. • Departments were more likely to engage in de-policing in jurisdictions with higher percentages of African-American residents. • Changes in traffic stops and hit rates have not corresponded with increases in total, violent, or property crime rates. Abstract Purpose This study explored whether police departments have engaged in “de-policing”—withdrawal from active police work—in response to unprecedented levels of negative attention, as well as the correlates of changes in police behavior. Methods Using data from 118 of the 121 police departments serving jurisdictions over 5000 residents in Missouri, we examined changes in both the quantity (rates of vehicle/traffic stops, searches, and arrests) and quality (“hit rates” from searches) of policing from 2014 to 2015 and whether de-policing corresponded with year-over-year changes in crime rates. Results The findings revealed a − 0.11 standardized change in stops (around 67,000 fewer stops in 2015 than 2014) and a 0.17 standardized change in hit rates (nearly 2 percentage points). Multivariate models indicated that departments serving larger African-American populations conducted fewer stops (β = − 0.44), searches (β = − 0.37), and arrests (β = − 0.27) in 2015 compared to 2014, although race was unrelated to changes in hit rates. Changes in police behavior had no appreciable effect on total, violent, or property crime rates. Conclusions The negative attention and increased scrutiny of law enforcement appears to have had an impact on traffic stops and hit rates in Missouri. Given the racialized findings, training and community-outreach programs should aim to increase mutual trust among the police and African-American communities. Also, increasing organizational justice within departments might be one way to improve officer morale and increase motivation in the current policing climate.

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Keywords Police De-policing Ferguson Effect Crime rates

John A. Shjarback is an assistant professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of Texas at El Paso. His research interests center on policing, specifically issues of accountability and professionalism, environmental and organizational influences on discretionary officer behavior, and current issues and trends. His recent work has been featured in Police Quarterly, Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, and the Journal of Criminal Justice.

David C. Pyrooz is assistant professor of sociology and faculty associate of problem behavior and positive youth development at the Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder. His primary research interests are in the areas of gangs and criminal networks, developmental and life-course criminology, incarceration and offender reentry, and criminal justice practice and policy. His recent work has been featured in Criminology, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, and Justice Quarterly.

Scott E. Wolfe is an associate professor in the School of Criminal Justice at Michigan State University. His research focuses primarily on policing, organizational justice, and legitimacy. His recent work has been featured in Law and Human Behavior, British Journal of Criminology, and Justice Quarterly.

Scott H. Decker is a Foundation Professor in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Arizona State University. His main research interests are in gangs, violence, and criminal justice policy. He is a Fellow in both the American Society of Criminology and the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences. His recent books include Confronting Gangs: Crime and Community (Oxford, 2015) and Policing Immigrants: Local Law Enforcement on the Front Lines (University of Chicago, 2016).