Our Survey. Next Tory leader. Rees-Mogg leads Gove by less than ten votes in over a thousand. Javid is third.

The consistency of the ConservativeHome monthly survey is a wonder to behold.

Last month, Jacob Rees-Mogg led Michael Gove by two votes in over a thousand (1107). Both were on 20 per cent. This time round, Rees-Mogg leads Gove by nine votes in over a thousand (1181). He is on 21 per cent, Gove on 20 per cent.

The only other person in the survey to make double figures is Sajid Javid. Two months go, he was on a mere two per cent. Last month, after his promotion to the Home Office, he rose to ten per cent. Now he is up to 13 per cent.

Finally, it’s always worth remembering that MPs, on the present rules, will put two candidates to the membership for consideration. The conventional wisdom – which like so many readings of a situation could be wrong – is that Rees-Mogg won’t be one of them.

P.S: Strictly speaking, “other” is third – coming in at 18 per cent, and thus ahead of the Home Secretary.