6. Work and study remain the most common reasons to come to the UK

Although work remained a common reason to come to the UK, total immigration to the UK for work-related reasons has continued to fall since the year ending September 2016. An estimated 216,000 people came to the UK to work in the year ending December 2018, a level last seen in 2013 (Figure 5).

Immigration to the UK to accompany or join another person has declined since the year ending September 2017 to its lowest level recorded (51,000) in the year ending December 2018.

The overall number of people immigrating to the UK for formal study remained amongst the highest levels seen since 2011.

Figure 5: Total immigration for work continued to decrease whereas coming to the UK to study remained high

Long-term immigration trends by reason for migration, UK, year ending December 2008 to year ending December 2018

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Since 2016, total long-term immigration to the UK for work has continued to decrease

Long-term immigration to the UK for work has continued to decrease since the year ending September 2016, driven mainly by the decline in EU arrivals. Despite this, an estimated 99,000 EU citizens still came to the UK long-term to work in 2018, a level similar to 2012.

This decrease can be accounted for largely by the recent fall in the number of EU citizens arriving with a definite job and the previous decrease in the number of EU citizens looking for work.

To fully understand these trends, we consider all available data sources including data from the Home Office and Department for Work and Pensions, and make our best assessment of the overall patterns in international migration.

! Not all data sources are directly comparable. Users should be aware of these differences before drawing conclusions.

Foreign citizens require a National Insurance number (NINo) to work in the UK and NINo registration data can be used to provide another view of work-related immigration. For EU citizens, International Passenger Survey (IPS) and NINo data continue to follow a similar trend with both sources showing a decrease since 2016 (Figure 6).

Figure 6: EU citizens coming to the UK to work continued to fall

EU work-related long-term immigration trends by data source, UK, year ending December 2008 to year ending December 2018

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Looking at all the available sources, by comparing the IPS with work visas and NINos, we can see that immigration of non-EU citizens for work has remained broadly stable since 2015 (Figure 7). However, different patterns are seen for different groups, with all available data sources showing that there has been an increase in Asian citizens arriving for work since the year ending September 2017. IPS estimates show an increase in Asian citizens arriving with a definite job in the past two years. This pattern is consistent with the most comparable Home Office visa data and NINo registrations.

From the year ending June 2017, there was a small rise in long-term work visas granted, particularly to Indian nationals, and this trend continues for the latest year ending March 2019 data. Also, in the year ending December 2018, NINo registrations to non-EU citizens increased to 213,000, mainly from Indian nationals (49% of this increase).

The latest Home Office visa data show a 15% increase in Skilled (Tier 2) work visas issued, accounting for the majority (59%) of all work visas. There was also an increase in the number of Certificates of Sponsorship used in applications for Tier 2 (Skilled) work in the human health and social work sector (up 62% in the year ending March 2019), resulting from the removal of highly-skilled doctors and nurses from the Tier 2 visa cap.

Figure 7: Non-EU citizens coming to the UK to work remained stable in recent years

Non-EU work-related long-term immigration trends by data source, UK, year ending December 2008 to year ending December 2018

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EU and non-EU nationals working in the UK labour market

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also produces estimates of the labour market activity of the resident population in the UK by nationality and country of birth.

! The number of migrants working in the UK is not a measure of how many people migrate to work. The best measure of total migration flows into and out of the UK is the Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) estimates.

For the period January to March 2019, the latest estimates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show that there were an estimated 2.38 million EU nationals working in the UK and an estimated 1.32 million non-EU nationals working in the UK.

The most recent labour market statistics show that there was a small increase in the number of EU citizens and non-EU citizens working in the UK compared with the previous year.

Looking over the longer time series, the number of EU nationals working in the UK has been increasing and despite a recent fall is back to the level seen in mid-2017. The number of non-EU nationals has remained broadly stable over the last few years.

It is too early to tell whether the recent increases are emerging patterns so we will continue to monitor the long-term trend.

This can be compared with long-term immigration in the IPS where we are continuing to see both EU and non-EU citizens arrive in the UK for work-related reasons.

! A number of differences have been identified when making comparisons between migration data from the Annual Population Survey (APS), Labour Force Survey (LFS) and International Passenger Survey (IPS). We have recently published a workplan, which once complete will enable us to better understand the reasons for those differences in the survey sources in the wider context of our migration statistics transformation work.

Non-EU student immigration has risen in the past year after remaining broadly stable since 2013

Our assessment based on reviewing data from all available sources is that non-EU student immigration has recently risen, after remaining broadly stable between 2013 and 2017 (Figure 8).

In the year ending December 2018, an estimated 211,000 people arrived in the UK long-term for formal study, remaining amongst the highest levels recorded since 2011.

The most comparable Home Office visa data for the year ending December 2018 showed that the number of Tier 4 (Sponsored Study) visas issued for 12 months or more was also at the highest level since the year ending December 2011. This trend continues in the latest visa data (for year ending March 2019) and was driven by visas issued to Chinese and Indian nationals, which together accounted for half (41% and 9% respectively) of all Tier 4 visas issued.

Most non-EU nationals arriving in the UK to study went to university. In the year ending March 2019, there was an increase (10%) in the number of sponsored applications for higher education institutions, to 196,350; the highest level on record. Again, this increase was driven by applications from Chinese and Indian nationals.

Figure 8: Non-EU student immigration has recently risen after remaining broadly stable from 2013 to 2017

Non-EU long-term student immigration trends by data source, UK, year ending December 2008 to year ending December 2018

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! Not all data sources are directly comparable. Users should be aware of these differences before drawing conclusions.

The UK granted asylum, alternative forms of leave¹, or resettlement to 17,304 people in the year ending March 2019, an increase on the previous year

This was up 22% on the previous year and the highest number of grants of protection in a single year since the year ending September 2003.

Home Office data show that the total number of people granted protection comprised:

9,191 grants of asylum (up 34%); there were notable changes in grants to Turkish (up 446), Afghan (up 299), Iranian (up 294), Eritrea (up 268), Sudanese (up 193) and Syrian (down 145) nationals

2,319 grants of an alternative form of leave¹ (up 50%), driven mainly by an increase of 663 grants of humanitarian protection, particularly to Libyan nationals (up 439)

5,794 people were provided protection under resettlement schemes (similar to the previous year)

Notes for: Work and Study remain the most common reasons to come to the UK