Jun 17, 2013

With the election of pragmatic, moderate Hassan Rouhani, change in Iran’s regional policy, especially in the Syrian crisis, has become possible. While a shift in style and rhetoric is inevitable due to Rouhani’s newly introduced discourse of “moderation,” a meaningful change in Iran’s regional policy is more dependent on the severity of the threat stemming from it.

This threat has two dimensions: an actual military threat from the United States and Israel, and the perceived threat from local rivals in minimizing Iran’s regional role.

The dominant view among Iran’s analysts is that the Islamic Republic’s support of the Syrian regime is a constant in Tehran’s regional policy and crucial to keeping the resistance bloc intact. The policy hasn’t changed with the different pragmatic, Reformist and Principalist governments of Rafsanjani, Khatami and Ahmadinejad, respectively.

But the reality is that Iran’s active presence in the Levant is directly connected to the preservation of Iran’s national security and interests in the region. The Syrian crisis has brought about new national-security challenges for Iran. The direct threat came from the United States and its Western allies when they made regime change in Syria a starting point to weakening Iran’s regional role, its nuclear stance and perhaps regime change in Iran.

Iran’s regional rivals also saw an opportunity in the Syrian crisis to weaken its position in the region. The challenge has come not only from traditional rival Saudi Arabia, but also Qatar and Turkey, once a friendly state, as both took the opportunity to contend with Iranian influence. Together, the three states have formed a bloc to minimize Iran’s regional role. Therefore, Iran had no choice but to react or give ground on its traditional influence to its rivals.