EMMA ALBERICI, PRESENTER: We were joined by the ABC's election analyst Antony Green just a short time ago for his assessment of the electoral options now on the table for Labor.

Antony Green, thanks for joining us. If the Labor caucus does move or decide to move to Kevin Rudd, when would it make sense for them to do so?

ANTONY GREEN, ABC ELECTION ANALYST: Well I think they've gotta make a decision on whether they want to change leader and go to a snap election or do they want to change leader and then govern for a period to try and stabilise the Government after another change? A view was in 2010 they may have gone too quickly after the change of leadership. So if they want to go quickly, do they leave the current government in place for as long as possible before changing before an election in the second half of this year. Or if they want to change it once and go to an early election, do they risk putting the House and the Senate out of line and bring a bitta chaos into the future of governments in Australia.

EMMA ALBERICI: Because presumably the September 14th date is not set in cement.

ANTONY GREEN: No, there's no requirement to go on September 14th. If the Prime Minister stays in office, she's determined to go to that date. But if they go early - the key problem for government in Australia if they go early is there can't be a half Senate election before 3rd August. Any election held before August will be for the House of Representatives and the four Territory senators only. There can't be an election for a half Senate. So presuming, say, that Labor loses the election, which all the polls indicate they would, even with a change of leadership, what that would do was any incoming Abbott government would be stuck with the Senate as it is and it would not be able to change the Senate until - for 12 months. The Senate - half Senate election must be held before the middle of next year. So in going to an early election, the Labor Party would leave the Coalition with the problem of forming government with the current Senate and faced with another half Senate election within 12 months, which would be really tough for a government that wants to indulge in a bit of fiscal rectitude, knowing it has to do that and potentially face a half Senate election within 12 months.

EMMA ALBERICI: Strategically though it sounds like it's something that perhaps some members of the Labor Party would quite like to see.

ANTONY GREEN: I think it's always been an option for the Labor Party. Some in the Labor Party, particularly in the union movement who wouldn't want the Coalition controlling the Senate and getting their hands on industrial relations laws, have probably always considered that an option. It may well be too late to do anything about it because to do it now with a snap change of leadership and a snap election just makes government look like a plaything. Government is a serious matter. And I know there are some conservative supporters in this country who would just love to get rid of Julia Gillard and get rid of this government now. It may also not be in the Coalition's interest to grasp government right now, because an early election would put the two houses out of Parliament and make government very difficult for the next 12 months whoever's in office. So, I think those who want to go early are only doing it for their own selfish reasons. They're not doing it for the broader national interest, because further instability this late in a government's term is probably not in the national interest.

EMMA ALBERICI: And John Howard just on the weekend put it this way: he said, "In the end, politics is driven by arithmetic." And if we take that as a given, where across the country if you're a Labor MP are you feeling vulnerable?

ANTONY GREEN: Well I think MPs in Sydney of course feel very vulnerable. The New South Wales Labor Party is still a mess after losing government two years ago. They've had the ongoing ICAC inquiries. And of course there's a lot of general angst in Sydney over lack of funds for development of projects. So any Labor MP in Sydney is feeling very vulnerable at the moment. Other MPs in Tasmania, where the State Government there is very unpopular and that's flowing through to federal politics. Labor may gain some seats in Queensland, it may hold the line in South Australia and Victoria, but it's very hard to see how the Labor Party can possibly compensate for losses of seats in NSW and Victoria. But of course, going to an early election may not solve that. It may make the whole problem worse 'cause going to a snap election means going to an election without a budget. It means - it's an admission of defeat to go to an election early.

So, I think there's a lot of - there's some in the Labor Party may view that a change of leadership is important, but it has to consider that whatever election happens this year, the Labor Party's gotta go out of government still able to hold its head high and say that in the future it is a party of government. To cut and run now would make the Government look like it's just irresponsible to some extent.

EMMA ALBERICI: Antony Green, thanks very much for all of that.

ANTONY GREEN: Thank you.