A cyclone that has formed off the Northern Territory could cross the Queensland coast as a severe category three storm, forecasters say.

Queensland’s disaster management committee was due to meet in Brisbane on Friday afternoon, and Cyclone Nora was expected to rapidly gather strength as it tracked towards the coast in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Nora, currently a category one storm, was expected to intensify to category two by Friday afternoon, and category three by Saturday morning.

“By Sunday, the tropical cyclone will most likely be located over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. A coastal crossing anywhere along the western Cape York Peninsula south of Weipa during Saturday or Sunday is possible,” the Bureau of Meteorology warned on Friday.

Cyclones on the Gulf are highly unpredictable, and forecasters said there was still uncertainty over Nora’s path.

The latest tracking map suggested it would be a category three storm on Saturday night, when it would be off Aurukun on the Cape York Peninsula’s western coast.

It was expected to remain a category three on Sunday when it would be even closer to the coast, but further south between Kowanyama and the Gilbert river mouth.

The emergency services minister, Craig Crawford, said residents on the Gulf Coast from Thursday Island to the NT border should prepare for strong winds and heavy rainfall.

“Until this afternoon we won’t be able to really ... say where we think this is going,” he told ABC radio.

“But we’re prepared for an impact, or certainly a cyclone, in the area of a significant part of our coastline in the Gulf. It’s very much a wait and see at the moment.”

Queensland’s emergency services commissioner, Katarina Carroll, said rapid response teams were being assembled in preparation, including swift-water rescue specialists.

“These crews will have the ability to fly into any area requiring assistance within four hours of being notified and will be self-sustaining for 48 hours,” she said.

On Friday morning, Nora was about 255 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy, on the Gove Peninsula in the Northern Territory, and 630 kilometres west northwest of Weipa.

The storm had sustained winds near the centre of 85km/h, with wind gusts to 120km/h, and there was a lot of rain associated with the system.

Gales with gusts to 110km/h could develop in coastal areas between Elcho Island and Cape Shield on Friday, including at Nhulunbuy, if the system took a slightly more southerly track than forecast.

Gales with gusts to 110km/h could develop in coastal areas between Thursday Island and Pormpuraaw, including Weipa, on Friday night. They could extend south between Pormpuraaw and the NT/Qld Border, including Mornington Island, on Saturday.

Heavy rain was forecast in the Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula over the coming days, and could extend to the Gulf country late on Saturday and into Sunday depending on how Nora tracked.