On Monday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Congressional Democrats informing them that it would be a dark day in hell before they got their hands on Donald Trump’s tax returns. Claiming that after consulting with the Justice Department, he had determined that the House Ways and Means Committee’s request for six years’ worth of the president’s returns “lacks a legitimate legislative purpose,” the secretary insisted that the elusive information must remain under lock and key in order to protect Trump’s privacy. While the move was not entirely surprising given Mnuchin’s complete and utter devotion to the former real-estate developer, it’s nevertheless been viewed as an act of defiance, considering this little thing called the law. Specifically, the one that expressly states that “Upon written request from the chairman of the Committee on Ways and Means of the House of Representatives, the chairman of the Committee on Finance of the Senate, or the chairman of the Joint Committee on Taxation, the Secretary shall furnish such committee with any return or return information specified in such request.”

As The Washington Post notes, Mnuchin’s excuses fall under the umbrella of what the legal profession calls “total bullshit,” given that all tax returns contain private information, “but Congress previously decided by statute that concerns about privacy are secondary to the House’s oversight responsibilities.” Moreover, it’s not up to Mnuchin (i.e. Trump) to decide what constitutes “a legitimate purpose,” and the secretary is clearly attempting to protect his boss “from embarrassment and conceal potential conflicts of interest and possible improper receipt of foreign emoluments.” And while this administration has never much cared about the rule of law, some people, like Representative Eric Swalwell, think that cabinet officials should actually be held to it, arguing that Congress should hold the former Foreclosure King in contempt, among other actions. And he’s not alone!

So, first off, congratulations to Mnuchin for being the first treasury secretary in U.S. history to have a trending hashtag devoted to putting him in prison (#LockMnuchinUp in case you missed it). As for whether or not that will actually happen, the odds seem low, though higher than zero percent! Last month, legal experts told Roll Call that failure to comply with a congressional subpoena could lead to the secretary being held in contempt, hit with daily fines, or even jail time until he does comply. “To me the person who’s most vulnerable to this is Mnuchin because, of course, the statute directs Mnuchin to do something,” said George K. Yin, a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law and former chief of staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation. “So if he doesn’t comply then he’s the one in violation . . . The statute is very clear and seems like very strong support for what [Committee Chairman Richard] Neal is trying to do. I think he obviously needs to think very seriously about that; now he might not care if he gets fired, but I think he would care if he gets sent to jail.”

William Alden McDaniel Jr., an attorney with Ballard Spahr LLP who has represented officials in both Democratic and Republican administrations, told Roll Call that after finding Mnuchin in contempt, the House “could then apply to a court to enforce that contempt order, by requiring him to turn it over or suffer some coercive penalty. They fine somebody, or put them in jail until they comply.” On Tuesday, following Mnuchin’s refusal to hand over the request information, progressive groups Tax March and Stand up America issued a joint statement saying, “This blatant affront to the rule of law cannot go unanswered” and that Neal "has no choice but to subpoena Trump's personal and business tax returns and, if the stonewalling continues, hold Secretary Mnuchin in contempt of Congress for illegally shielding the returns.”