Securing internet TV rights to All Blacks matches could be an attractive proposition for Amazon, a Forsyth Barr report suggests.

Retail giant Amazon could march into New Zealand, win the rights to stream the All Blacks, and take a $915 million slice of the national economy, a top sharebroking firm has forecast.

In a research report that is likely to send shivers down the spines of many Kiwi businesses, Forsyth Barr said New Zealand would be "a logical extension" for Amazon once it has established its giant warehouses and "bedded-in" in Australia.

A spokeswoman for Amazon said it was unlikely to comment on the report.



Amazon currently ships products to Kiwi and Australian customers from the United States.



But the potential physical arrival of Amazon in New Zealand within the next few years could have "a significant impact on the local corporate landscape", Forsyth Barr said.



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Forsyth Barr said a full market entry by Amazon could see it achieve annual revenues of $915m in New Zealand within five years.



"If Amazon had any ambition to pursue its Prime service in New Zealand then we would expect it to explore securing streaming rights to key New Zealand content, such as rugby," it said.

MIKE SEGAR/REUTERS Forsyth Barr says NZ entry would be "logical extension" for Amazon.

"The All Blacks are a leading global brand while Sanzar rugby rights are relatively cheap compared to other global sporting competitions. Securing rugby could provide Amazon with immediate critical mass."

Prime is a subscription service from Amazon that entitles subscribers to free fast shipping on purchases. Overseas it is often packaged with Amazon's internet television service Prime Video, which is sold separately in New Zealand. Sanzar rights include those to Super Rugby.

If the take-up of Amazon Prime in New Zealand were to match overseas markets, its subscriber base would roughly equal that of Sky TV, Forsyth Barr said.

"A physical Amazon entry with Prime subscription on offer would likely accelerate e-commerce growth in New Zealand, putting traditional business models at risk, while offering opportunities to its future partners," it said.

"Briscoe Group, The Warehouse Group, Sky TV, Stride Property and NPT are most exposed among New Zealand listed companies to an Amazon incursion, in our opinion."

After intense speculation, Amazon confirmed this year that it would open fulfillment centres in Australia.

Forsyth Barr said there were different possibilities as to how Amazon could do business in New Zealand over the next five years.

If it did follow suit in New Zealand by opening a fulfillment centre in Auckland or the Waikato – offering a full range of its products locally and its Amazon Prime free two-day shipping service – then that would have "major implications" for retailers, media players, telcos, property companies and technology firms, it said.

"Amazon's willingness to accept slim margins and pass on cost savings to consumers has helped transform the e-commerce and adjacent landscapes in other countries it's touched."

But as alternative, it might choose not to establish a physical presence in New Zealand and instead ship products to Kiwis from Australia, Forsyth Barr said.

It forecast that would see Amazon earn annual revenues in New Zealand of $122m within five years.

A half-way house would be for Amazon set up "a sorting centre" in New Zealand to handle orders that were serviced from Australia and perhaps only offer Amazon Prime to Aucklanders, leading to a business that Forsyth Barr estimated would have with an estimated annual turnover of $548m.

Retail NZ policy manager Greg Harford said Forsyth Barr's report was interesting.

"Retailers are certainly concerned about Amazon's arrival into Australia and what that will mean for their businesses here. Amazon is a massive company that can leverage fantastic pricing which does make it hard for smaller businesses to compete."

Harford said he would like Customs Minister Tim Macindoe to release a report he received from Customs early last month that discusses possible changes to the GST-threshold on overseas internet shopping purchases.

"We would like to see what are officials are saying in the public domain so we can have a debate about the issue."

Retail NZ has called for the threshold to be abolished, though Harford noted Forsyth Barr had argued in its report that the loss of the tax advantage could prove the trigger for Amazon to move into New Zealand, instead of supplying customers from overseas.

That would make the abolition of the threshold a double-edged sword.

Even Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport had exposure to Amazon's decision, Forsyth Barr said.

If it didn't set up warehousing in New Zealand those companies could expect to benefit from increased air freight, but that extra business could disappear if Amazon opted for a full launch of Amazon Prime since it would restock its New Zealand fulfillment centre via sea.

Broker's fears for NZ firms

- Briscoe Group: Amazon's 'dynamic pricing' puts Briscoe's 'hi-lo' model of selling products at a higher price and then discounting them at risk

- NPT and Stride Property: Smaller malls struggle to maintain foot traffic

- Sky TV: Amazon likely to acquire high-value content for Amazon Prime Video

- The Warehouse Group: competition for key categories