DICE informs him that with a possible increase in temperature of 2.5 degrees Celsius, global warming in 2070 can be expected to inflict economic losses and damage amounting to 1.5 percent of global output. That would not be trivial, but it wouldn’t be devastating, either. He estimates that 90 percent of the United States economy would be negligibly or only lightly harmed by greater warming. Only 1.2 percent, mainly farming, now a mere sliver, would be hit hard.

That dollar damage would include items like lower crop yields and flooded waterfront properties. But the estimate does not cover the possible destruction of natural wonders like the Upper Amazon or thousands of species. Their loss cannot be captured in dollars, yet we must insist on protecting them when figuring costs and benefits, he says.

He expects that economic damage from climate change will probably be quite small compared with economic growth over the next half-century to century. But he warns that Mother Nature may play her hand in a way that upends logical forecasts and leads to global disaster.

In particular, he frets about four tipping points: the collapse of the large ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica; large-scale changes in ocean circulation (possibly reversing the Gulf Stream); situations when warmth prompts more warmth (say, by the thawing of frozen methane); and the possibility of a warming trigger that may double the Earth’s temperature increase, to six degrees Celsius. (Even three degrees is now considered an unthinkable extreme.)

The “casino” aspect of his book’s title refers to the difficult debate over how much we should spend to protect the planet from these low-probability but potentially catastrophic events. Unfortunately, as Professor Nordhaus acknowledges, dealing with global warming is but one of many worthy causes competing for tax dollars.

His views put him to the right of center on the ideological spectrum, but he has no patience with the few “contrarian” scientists and numerous political figures who contest the established science that global warming is real and ominous. Though he includes a hopeful chapter meant to appeal to thinking conservatives, not even DICE is smart enough to devise a solution to the intractable politics of climate change, which are stubbornly deadlocked.

The temptations of “free riding” — letting other industries or other nations do the heavy lifting, and letting tomorrow’s generations take care of themselves — seem almost overwhelming. It is a trillion-dollar problem and it requires a trillion-dollar solution, or so he concludes.