We individually ranked our top Blue Jays prospects to put together this aggregate top 50 list. You can listen to the accompanying podcast episode here.

Under most names you’ll see a 95th percentile outcome and a 50th percentile outcome. The 95th percentile outcome represents what we think the prospect’s reasonable ceiling is – they’ll only become this good or better in 5% of an infinite number of universes. The 50th percentile outcome represents their more probable developmental outcome. If the prospect’s potential outcomes are normally distributed, most of the results will be pretty similar to their 50th percentile outcome. We might express the outcome in WAR, by making a player comparison, or by a role description. We think this information provides a decent illustration of ceiling and risk, and is a lot better than the “Future Value” (FV) numbers you see in other places which kind of muddle the tension between potential and risk. Sometimes we sprinkle in other percentile outcomes for fun.

You will also see each player’s current position, the highest level that they’ve reached, and their age as of July 31, 2020.

A brief caveat for this list – Radio Scouts are not actual scouts. This list is based on profile evaluation and opinions as supported by publicly available information like statistics, tweets, gifs, YouTube videos, news articles, and, of course, actual scouting reports.

How They Were Acquired

Draft: 25

IFA: 14

Trade: 9

FA: 1

Rule 5: 1

1. Nate Pearson | RHSP | AAA | 23

95% – Noah Syndergaard

50% – Jon Gray

Toronto has never had a pitching prospect like Nate Pearson (they traded Syndergaard before he got there). Pearson did enough in 2019 to reduce some of the public perception on his injury risk and reliever risk. Last year we toyed with the idea that Pearson might have a higher absolute upside than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The ceiling is as high as it was a year ago but it now seems that his reasonable outcome is an above average SP. We should see him in Toronto this season. –Nick

2. Jordan Groshans | 3B/SS | Low-A | 20

95% – Josh Donaldson

50% – Fringe-average starting 3B

Groshans got off to an excellent start at Lansing in 2019 before his season ended prematurely thanks to a pesky stress injury to the navicular bone in his left foot. Now fully recovered, Jordan took to Twitter this offseason to prove that he feels no lingering effects of the injury:

Day 3. Picking up the pace day by day. #2020 pic.twitter.com/gRO3ZKTY8v — Jordan Groshans (@groshansj10) December 9, 2019

First couple swings in a while. Feels good pic.twitter.com/uIp4kJUzlr — Jordan Groshans (@groshansj10) January 14, 2020

Groshans will probably move to 3B full-time eventually, but that’s fine, as he projects to be an above-average defender there. Also considering his propensity to hit the ball very hard, it’s my opinion that we’re looking at a future top 10 prospect in baseball. -Mike

3. Simeon Woods Richardson | RHSP | High-A | 19

95% – Zack Wheeler

50% – Taijuan Walker

Woods Richardson is listed at 6’3, 210 lbs and has added velocity since being drafted in the second round (48th overall) by the New York Mets in 2018. According to some scouts, his plus fastball sits 94-96 and has topped out in the upper 90s. He also possesses a curveball, changeup, and cutter, all of which project to be above-average pitches at peak.

What SWR did statistically in his first full season of professional baseball cannot be overstated. In 106 ⅔ IP, he pitched to a 10.63 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 2.51 FIP, 2.42 xFIP, 14.3 SwStr%, and an above-average GB-rate of 45.8%. He accomplished all of this as an 18-year-old, marking a virtually unprecedented season for a pitcher at that age vs. level. If we isolate his tenure at Low-A, where he pitched the majority of his innings, there are only a handful of similarly impressive performances by pitchers aged 18 or younger in the South Atlantic League since 2006:

RIP Tyler Skaggs. For the majority of the pitchers in the above chart, they’re either current top prospects or have gone on to enjoy at least moderate MLB success. This would seem to bode well for Simeon Woods Richardson, who is head and shoulders above his peers from a statistical standpoint. There are, of course, a few reminders above that professional baseball is hard and that serious injury can strike a pitcher at any time. Pitchers, man.

Don’t just take the above chart as all the proof you need that Big Sim is for real – Sparkman, an intriguing new projection system for minor league pitchers from Connor Kurcon of Six Man Rotation, has SWR projected as the 5th-best pitching prospect in baseball.

We probably can’t mention Big Sim without bringing up Marcus Stroman and that will likely continue to be the case for the foreseeable future. After the trade received more than its fair share of negative reaction from the public (~75% of MLBTR readers graded the trade as a ‘C’ or worse for the Blue Jays; the poll received over 22,000 votes), baseball writers, and purportedly at least a couple rival front offices, the July 2019 trade already looks like a steal now that the offseason round of public prospect rankings have been released – SWR is a consensus top 100 prospect and Anthony Kay is a fringe-top 100 prospect, which is a great haul for GM Ross Atkins. Atkins then proceeded to dunk on the naysayers by investing the money he could’ve put into a Stroman extension instead into one of the top free agent pitchers available this winter in Hyun-Jin Ryu. So, Jays fans, would you rather have Marcus Stroman or Hyun-Jin Ryu + Simeon Woods Richardson + Anthony Kay? Drop that mic, Ross. -Mike

4. Alejandro Kirk | C | High-A | 20

99.9% – Pudge Rodriguez

99.5% – #FatAltuve

50% – Short Bengie Molina

At an age-appropriate level, Alejandro Kirk walked more than he struck out while hitting for some power and catching. Here is a list of players who walked more than they struck out in the Florida State League, minimum 200 PA: Alejandro Kirk and Wander Franco. Here is a list of players in all of the mid minors (A+ and A), minimum 200 PA, who walked more than they struck out while being 21 years old or younger and hitting for at least average power (ISO >.130): Alejandro Kirk and Wander Franco. We don’t care if he doesn’t look like an athlete. Lots of catchers have been fat and good, historically. We’ve watched the film on Youtube and his hands look good behind the plate. Shit, there might be a robotic strike zone in two years anyway. There is something special in Kirk’s bat and you can make a reasonable argument that he should be #2 on this list. –Nick

5. Alek Manoah | RHSP | Short Season A | 22

95% – Lance Lynn

50% – Lance Lynn from those two years when he was not healthy or that good

The hulking 6’6”, 260 lb righthander, drafted in the first round (11th overall) out of West Virginia, capped off a very impressive college junior season (108 ⅓ IP, 2.08 ERA, 2.66 RA9, 0.91 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) with an exhilarating, albeit abbreviated, debut in short-season A-ball in Vancouver. In 17 IP, Manoah had a 14.65 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 2.48 FIP, 2.45 xFIP, and reportedly registered in the upper 90s on the radar gun multiple times:

Manoah is touching 97-98 and at 5Ks so far. @vancanadians pic.twitter.com/bP68URFH3l — Stewart Rogers ?? (@StewartRogers) August 27, 2019

Depending on the outlet, AK47 (his college nickname) is either currently a back-end top 100 prospect or just on the cusp of the top 100. If he can stay healthy and build on what he showed last season, we will see him on every top 100 list by this time next year. Manoah looks like another draft success by this current front office. –Mike

Alek Manoah (@Alek_Manoah47) was dominant tonight in Manhattan. 8 innings, 13 strikeouts, 3 hits on 102 pitches. He dropped his season ERA to 1.90. Plus fastball command, nasty breakers, not a lot of fun for hitters. @PitchingNinja @WVUBaseball @d1baseball #MLBDraft pic.twitter.com/lv5u5vmTIy — Sully Engels (@SullyKSNT) May 11, 2019

6. Orelvis Martinez | SS | Rookie (GCL) | 18

95% – All Star SS

50% – Bench / platoon infielder

Martinez signed for $3.5M during the 2018 IFA signing period, the biggest bonus the Jays have handed out since signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2015; Martinez trained under Rudy Santin, who also happened to tutor current MLB #1 prospect Wander Franco.

At 17 years old, he absolutely tore apart the GCL in 2019, putting up a .275/.352/.549 slash line and a 150 wRC+. He also contributed 7 homers, 8 doubles, and 5 triples (.275 ISO), walked at an 8.6% clip, and struck out 17.8% of the time. Martinez enjoyed one of the best seasons by a 17-year-old in the Gulf Coast League since 2006:

Martinez has easy plus raw power but a developing hit tool, which is also the biggest knock, or unknown, against his ultimate ceiling. At this point, the outcomes on his hit tool vary wildly, so it will be interesting to see how he performs this season.

Originally pegged to move over to third, he’s now more likely to remain at short, which only adds to his sky-high upside. -Mike

7. Gabriel Moreno | C | Low-A | 20

80% – Carlos Ruiz, Kurt Suzuki, etc.

50% – 3rd string Catcher

Moreno has been a developmental success story for the organization. Signed for just $25,000 out of Venezuela, he only started catching shortly before he signed and he still thinks of himself as a shortstop. Moreno was 34% better than the average Midwest League hitter last year, at just 19 years old (only 9 of the top 30 hitters in the league, minimum 250 PA, were 18 or 19.) He accomplished this by combining elite contact (just as 11.1% K rate) with power (.205 ISO.) FanGraphs put a future 50 grade on his hit tool before 2019, but that seems low now in light of those contact numbers.

As an athletic catcher, Moreno offers two-way upside. Ivan Herrera snuck onto FanGraphs’ top 2020 prospect list at #105, but Moreno arguably outperformed him at the same age in the MWL in 2019 – Moreno had a better K rate and hit for more power. To be fair to FanGraphs, they did mention Moreno in their honourable mentions article and Herrera is reportedly a more advanced overall defender with some impressive maximum exit velocities; the point here is that Moreno is good and if you really want you can think of him like a back-end top 100 prospect. –Nick

8. Anthony Kay | LHSP | MLB | 25

95% – 3 WAR SP

50% – 1 WAR SP (#5 or #6 SP)

Kay pitched for four teams in 2019: the Mets’ AA and AAA affiliates, Buffalo, and Toronto. He was excellent in AA, struggled in AAA for the Mets, and improved with Buffalo, before flashing legitimate starting pitcher stuff in 14 decent innings with Toronto. Along the 2019 journey he demonstrated, at times, the ability to miss enough bats and avoid ruin by the free pass. His velocity, fastball spin rate, and curveball spin rate are all pretty close to MLB averages (46th to 60th percentile).

This is a LHSP with average stuff and developing (slightly below average) command. If he does not improve much we are looking at a useful MLB arm but if he can find some more command and/or tinker with a pitch and improve his mix, the substrate is good enough to support an above average future. SWR was the meat and potatoes of the Stroman trade but Anthony Kay is a side dish with value. –Nick

9. Miguel Hiraldo | 3B/SS | Low-A | 19

95% – 3 WAR 3B

50% – AAAA player

More than likely destined to move to 3B, Hiraldo is a bat-first prospect with tremendous bat speed and the ability to control the strike zone (5.5 BB%, 14.1 K%). He’s a patient hitter with good barrel control and a compact swing. He’s a bit hit over power at the moment, but with how hard he hits the ball, he may hit for more power down the road as he matures physically.

Hiraldo will begin the season in the Midwest League with Lansing. Keep an eye on him – he could be a big helium guy this year. –Linc

10. Adam Kloffenstein | RHSP | Short Season A | 19

98% – #2 SP

50% – Reliever

Kloffenstein checks all the boxes for the type of pitching prospect the Jays have been desperate for these past few seasons. Large frame at 6’5”, 245 lbs., young with incredible upside, and a plus fastball with multiple options for projectable secondaries.

Kloffenstein was a steal in the 3rd round of the 2018 MLB draft, as the front office creatively maneuvered their resources to offer him a 2.45 million signing bonus ($1.8M over slot) away from his TCU commitment. It helped to have his high school teammate Groshans on board as a package deal, which essentially gave the Blue Jays two first round talents in 2018.

As an 18 year old in his first full season of pro-ball, Kloffenstein pitched against players that were on average three years older in the NWL. With this in mind, his final stat line was impressive: 13 GS, 64.1 IP, 2.24 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 1.088 WHIP, 8.95 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 2.78 K/BB.

Named to the Northwest League AllStar team, Kloffenstein finished 2nd in ERA (2.24) among qualified starters, 3rd in WHIP (1.088), 5th in innings pitched (64.1), and 4th in strikeouts (64). Keep in mind that other prospects on the leaderboards are on average 2-4 years older and many of them went to college.

Not only did King Kloff demonstrate his strikeout ability, he kept the walks down while also maintaining a staggering 60% ground-ball rate. He accomplished these feats by working both a 4-seamer that touches 96, and a lively 2-seamer that sits low-90s with good sink.

He’s got a high-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup with sharp diving action to compliment his heaters, but his main wipeout pitch is a slider that evolved from a cutter. It’s become his bread and butter, at times looking absolutely devastating. All three of his offerings have been graded as average to above average, with potential for plus.

The most impressive part is despite finishing on a strong note, and eventually leading that rotation with Alek Manoah, Kloffenstein actually struggled to start the season. At the start, he was a large dude with very raw tools. But since, he has made tremendous strides over the course of just one season. Kloffenstein should be starting in Lansing (A) in 2020, and may reunite with Groshans in Dunedin if things continue to develop well. -Linc

11. Reese McGuire | C | MLB | 25

95% – Good starting C

50% – Registered Florida sex offender who is a great backup catcher

Reese was consistently a below average hitter in the minor leagues, so his 133 MLB wRC+ to date is almost certainly a huge mirage, but the defense appears to be so good that he has palpable, immediate upside. Steamer projects him for an 82 wRC+ but 1.3 fWAR in only 286 PA – that means he projects as an above average starter, which is kind of crazy but consider the following: since 2013, 17 of the top 30 catchers by fWAR are below average hitters. Mike Zunino is 12th on that list with 13.9 fWAR in his career despite an 83 wRC+. There’s a chance that Reese McGuire is better than Danny Jansen. Toronto’s catching future is very strong. –Nick

12. Joey Murray | RHSP | AA | 23

95% – Crafty Marco Estrada/Gonzales type of starter

50% – Middle or long reliever

Armed with a deceptive delivery, Murray pitched at three levels in 2019 and finessed his way into our hearts with a very statistically impressive season. It’s been said that Murray has an ‘invisiball’, meaning that the batter has a hard time picking the ball up until it’s right on top of him. This is primarily how Murray’s been so successful to this point with below-average stuff (87-90 MPH). He also puts an above-average amount of spin on the ball and tends to locate his fastballs in the upper part of the zone, leading to a ton of swing-and-miss.

There is nothing under-the-radar about Joey Murray! pic.twitter.com/gHIgpZZHtP — Ryan Di Francesco (@RyanDifrancesco) August 14, 2019

He pairs his fastball with this crazy breaker:

Here’s a look at Joey Murray’s breaking bender. The 29th ranked Jays prospect tossed 5 innings Saturday afternoon and recorded 9 Ks – not too bad at all. pic.twitter.com/ch2fS83GAX — Ryan Di Francesco (@RyanDifrancesco) July 28, 2019

He started throwing a changeup in 2019, which he began to lean on more heavily the more he threw it, gaining confidence with each pitch.

It’s tough to project a pitcher with Murray’s stuff to have much success in the upper minors, let alone the majors, but you can’t ignore the results to this point and pitchers have been successful with less, so it doesn’t seem totally nuts to us. We believe in his invisiball enough to slot him here on the list, but we don’t want to get carried away – we are cautiously optimistic. -Mike

13. Patrick Murphy | RHSP | AA | 25

95% – Joe Musgrove

65% – Good Setup RP

50% – Injury-prone MLB RP

Murphy’s results in 2019 were quite good, based on what we look at. His K-BB% ranked among the Eastern League leaders and he was 5th in xFIP with a sterling 3.01 mark. His fastball and curveball are plus weapons and the changeup may have taken a step forward. The hiccup after his delivery was deemed illegal is not overly concerning, as there is no obvious reason, with some practice and a fresh year, that he should not be able to transform his toe tap into a toe that nearly taps, a la Kershaw. Murphy has an upside that is higher than some of the prospects ahead of him on this list, but any expectations need to be tempered by his injury history which includes Tommy John Surgery, thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and a surgery to move his ulnar nerve. –Nick

14. Josh Winckowski | RHSP | High-A | 21

95% – #3 SP

50% – Inning-eating SP or MLB reliever

Wincky emerged as a sleeper prospect after his fantastic 2018 season in Vancouver, where he posted an ERA and FIP of about 2.70 and sparkling K and BB rates. He also had a solid groundball rate of 54.4%. In 2019 he split the season about equally between Lansing and Dunedin. The ERA, FIP, and groundball rates generally held up in Lansing, although the K-BB% wasn’t quite as sparkling. Dunedin was his first minor hiccup in the last two years, mostly because the K rate fell to a pedestrian 6.20 K/9 mark – his ERA, walk, and groundball rates were all still solid enough. Josh pitched through a finger injury in Dunedin and he told us that it affected his ability to finish his slider, which scouting reports before 2019 had tabbed as a potential plus pitch, so the K% dip might have a simple explanation. Those old reports had Winckowski as 90-94 MPH with the good slider, but some reports from mid-2019 are more intriguing, evidencing that the changeup has above-average potential and that he may be able to touch as high as 98.

In the Midwest League All Star Game, which Winckowski started, he pumped the fastball in at 95-97 in a one inning outing, demonstrating two things: that he can reach back for plus fastball velocity when he wants to, and that even if the starting pitcher gig ends up not working out he has the velocity to profile as an MLB reliever. With a classic two-seamer, slider, changeup repertoire, we can’t help but wonder, in light of the velocity reports from 2019, if there might be more strikeout potential here if a four-seamer up in the zone were to become part of the mix. As he is, we see a durable starter’s frame with three pitches that have above-average potential.

Josh is a confident guy, and he has talked in the past about Wander Franco not squaring him up and Hans Crouse (Texas’ second rounder from 2017) not being better than him. One of his old high school coaches said in a news article that “he’s got a killer instinct you can’t teach… between those foul lines, he’s an absolute monster.” We are expecting a productive upper-minors season for Josh and he might find himself on the 2021 SP depth chart. –Nick

15. Kendall Williams | RHSP | Rookie (GCL) | 19

95% – Above-average power SP

50% – Reliever or swing-man

Drafted in 2019 in the second round (52nd overall) out of IMG Academy, Williams’ fastball was sitting 90-93, topping out at 96 last year. At 6’6” and 208 lbs., it’s pretty easy to project Williams to add some additional velocity as he matures physically. He also possesses a slurvy curveball that projects to be above-average at peak and an average changeup. His command also projects to be about average.

In a very small, it-means-essentially-nothing sample in the GCL at the end of last season, Kendall pitched 16 innings of 1.13 ERA/2.63 FIP/3.32 xFIP ball with rates of 10.69 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9. We don’t have much professional data to go by yet, but in that mostly-meaningless small sample, he showed about as well as we could’ve hoped, so that’s something!

We expect that Williams will pitch in Extended and then it’s on to Vancouver for him. -Mike

16. Eric Pardinho | RHSP | Low-A | 19

95% – Average MLB SP

50% – MLB Reliever

Those percentile outcomes might seem pessimistic, but that’s how we need to adjust them in light of Pardinho’s Tommy John surgery announcement. He was already a player with size-related injury concerns and now he’ll have lost a huge amount of time to injury; his 2019 was essentially a lost development year and his numbers and velocity were down, 2020 will be completely gone, and part of 2021 may be wiped out for rehab. Pardinho becoming an above average MLB SP is only a remote possibility now and he’s probably one major arm injury away from being removed from the SP development track. We are projecting his eventual MLB role to be more like the middle relievers that come out of Houston’s pitching factory – a guy who can be effective with enough velocity, good spin, and good command, but not somebody who will be tasked with eating innings. If Pardinho comes back healthy and productive in 2021, these percentile outcomes will shift for our 2022 list. –Nick

17. Otto Lopez | SS | Low-A | 21

95% – Marwin Gonzalez

50% – The AAA version of Marwin Gonzalez

Despite being defensively-versatile, Lopez is still a bit raw in the field. He can be overly aggressive on the basepaths at times, but he has above-average speed and preternatural bat to ball skills with developing power – albeit it’s more gap power at present than anything. The hit tool is plus, as evidenced by his ability to make consistent contact and avoid the strikeout (12.8 K% in 2019).

As a 20-year-old at Lansing, Lopez slashed .324/.371/.425 with a 132 wRC+ in 492 PA. He will most likely end up at either second base or in the outfield, or perhaps he plays a bit of both. -Linc

18. Dasan Brown | CF | Rookie (GCL) | 18

98% – Jarrod Dyson with some power

95% – Jarrod Dyson

50% – Doesn’t make it but induces maple boners across the nation

It’s always kind of cool when the Blue Jays take the top Canadian prospect in the draft – it tends to make us wonder if some slight edge in scouting, due to geography, has let Toronto see something in the player that other teams may have missed. Dasan Brown was one of the youngest players in the 2019 draft, not turning 18 until this past September.

The basic scouting report on Brown is: possible 80 grade runner and plus centrefielder; average arm; quick enough bat that there is hope for the hit tool; bottom of the scale raw power. So, some “slapdick” prospect. The Blue Jays probably have a bit more hope than that. Shortly after the draft, Ross Atkins hesitantly referred to Brown as a potential “five-tool player”, which is not a label typically used for someone without any raw power potential. There are a lot of videos of Brown from 2018 scouting/international events, most of these from before or just after he turned seventeen, and he is certainly not a twig; it looks like there is some amount of power potential in his body. He is already listed at 6’0”, 185 lbs, which, at 18 years old, gives him two inches and twenty pounds on a 20-grade raw power MLB comparison in Jarrod Dyson.

There are a some videos on Youtube of Brown squaring up in 2018 against top 2020 MLB draft prospect Mick Abel (they are nearly the same age), and in 2019 against top Rays prospects Shane Baz and Matthew Liberatore, and Brown never looks overmatched – he displays some pitch recognition and the ability to make contact against these talented arms. That patience / pitch recognition showed up in the brief GCL sample as Brown walked 9 times in 14 games. It will take years, but if we factor Brown’s age into the equation properly (not all raw high school prospects are the same!) and give him some chance of developing raw power, the upside seems very, uh, up there. –Nick

19. Thomas Hatch | RHSP | AA | 25

95% – 2.5 WAR SP

50% – Middle reliever

A definite ‘stock up’ guy after altering his slider into more of a cutter just before the Jays acquired him for David Phelps, and increasing the usage of his changeup after joining New Hampshire, Hatch pitched very well in a handful of starts with his new organization. Those pitches coupled with a very high-spin fastball (2550 RPM) that sits 91-94 and tops out at 96, and an average curveball with decent spin (2550 RPM) means we’ve got ourselves a live one. If Hatch continues to pitch well in the early portion of the season, he could very well be summoned to the majors at some point in 2020. Suddenly, the Jays have an abundance of interesting upper minors pitching depth. -Mike

20. Chavez Young | CF | High-A | 23

95% – Solid all-around MLB OF

50% – Good AAA player

Drafted in the 39th round of the 2016 draft at an above-slot pact of $200,000, the Bahamian looked like an absolute steal.

After an eye-catching 2018 season at Lansing, Young followed that up with a bit of a dud at Dunedin in 2019. Even if the bat falters a bit, he boasts good speed and a superb arm from the outfield. Currently flying under the radar, if Young can right the ship at the plate in 2020, he’ll be a hidden gem no longer.

We think he can bounce back offensively this year. -Mike

21. Griffin Conine | OF | Low-A | 23

95% – 30 HR RF

50% – AAA RF

Conine has a divisive profile, one that boasts a ton of raw power but also a ton of strikeouts. He mashed 22 homers and a .293 ISO in only 348 PA in 2019, contributing to a 169 wRC+ in Lansing. If he reels in the strikeouts to a more palatable rate, he’s much higher on this list. But a 35.9 K% at Low-A as a 22-year is a huge red flag, no matter how many home runs he hits. He will seriously need to curtail that swing-and-miss issue if he’s going to have success in the upper minors. Having said that, we’re plenty intrigued and will be keeping a close eye on Conine in 2020.

On the defensive side, he’s a decent fielder with a plus arm. It’s a classic RF profile. -Mike

22. Leonardo Jimenez | 2B/SS | Low-A | 19

95% – Average MLB SS

50% – Replacement level infielder

Leonardo Jimenez sounds a bit like Kevin Vicuna and many Jimenez reports mention the latter, but they don’t look similar at all on video. While Vicuna might still be the best defensive SS in the system, he is 20 grade power personified. Vicuna remains extremely thin and there is little hope that he will ever be strong enough to have any kind of offensive game at the MLB level, so his ceiling is very limited and he did not get the nod for this list (he also went unselected in the Rule 5 draft). Jimenez, despite not having any home runs yet on his minor league baseball card yet, offers a bit more hope with the stick – at 18 years old he already has 20 pounds on the gracile Vicuna. If you watch Jimenez on video you’ll see a frame with some muscle and a solid swing, so it’s safe to project a bit of power. He’ll never be a power hitter but even 30 grade raw power might let him hit the baseball hard enough to not be a total zero on offense; Jose Iglesias’ .299 career wOBA has been enough to let the glove due its thing. Jimenez might have more offensive potential than that. Like Vicuna, Jimenez apparently has a mature feel for the defensive side of things. –Nick

23. Riley Adams | C | AA | 24

95% – Solid power hitting C

50% – Backup C

Adams has performed well offensively at every level since being selected in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft, but his strikeout rate skyrocketed upon getting promoted to AA New Hampshire in May. And he’s a bit older for the level than what is typically considered a good age-to-level ratio for legitimate prospects. Riley will turn 24 in June so the Blue Jays may move him up to AAA to start the season – especially with Kirk banging down the door to the catching gig at New Hampshire – but it would be understandable if Riley was held back to see if he can’t get the strikeouts dialed in to something more in line with previous rates. He makes consistent hard contact and possesses plus raw power.

Adams’ arm is graded as above-average by most scouts, and it’s thought that he can be at least average behind the plate. From most accounts, his work behind the plate has improved significantly.

Seriously, the catching depth in this system is insane. -Mike

24. Santiago Espinal | 2B/SS/CF | AAA | 25

95% – 1.5 WAR true talent (fringe starter or solid part time player)

50% – Replacement level infielder

Devoid of any plus tools, Espinal is about as bland as actual prospects get. He’s not a non-prospect by any means, but at 25, he’s not exactly a spring chicken at this point, either. He was added to the 40-man roster this offseason and will almost certainly get his first taste of the major leagues this year. There’s even an outside chance that he could break camp with the club in a utility role, although that roster spot is more likely to go to someone like Joe Panik or Brandon Drury out of camp.

Espinal, the trade return for Steve Pearce, can comfortably play many positions on the diamond and that’s likely to be his calling card. If he proves to be anything more than that, we would consider that to be a bonus. -Mike

25. Kevin Smith | SS | AA | 24

95% – 20/20 infielder

50% – Replacement level infielder

What a difference a year can make. Last year at this time, we were debating putting Smith at #4 in the system, ahead of Pearson at #5. Ultimately, we slotted Smith in behind Pearson and then he went out and put up an absolute clunker of a season while Pearson has become one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Smith wouldn’t be the first prospect to reverse his fortunes after falling off the map, but it seems unlikely at this point that he regains his previous form. Expectations should be tempered across the board, but we’re not ready to give up on him entirely. Like everyone else, we cling to a faint glimmer of hope that 2018 Kevin is still in there. Perhaps a change in approach or a swing tinker could lead to more success this season. -Mike

26. Maximo Castillo | RHSP | High-A | 21

95% – #5 SP

50% – Swing man

It’s hard to ignore the numbers that Castillo has put up throughout his pro career while being young for every level he’s pitched at. He’ll be turning 21 this season and should start the year at AA, which means that he should be challenged in 2020. It’s going to be interesting to monitor his production this season.

From most available public scouting reports (believe me, they’re few and far between), he’s being given a bunch of 50s (on the 20-80 scale) across the board, including, oddly, his command, which looks to be plus (AKA a 60). The jump from High-A to AA is massive in terms of quality of opponent, but Maximo has shown enough to date that we think there could be something here.

And let’s be real, this is an 80-grade name. -Mike

27. Estiven Machado | SS | DNP | 17

95% – Star SS

50% – Not a big leaguer

Machado is the highest-ranked 2019 IFA on our list, edging out De Castro below. Like De Castro, Machado was signed on Day 1 of the 2019 period, July 2nd. His bonus was reported to be $825,000. Per Baseball America:

“…Machado has a direct, compact swing from both sides of the plate and a good approach, leading to a high contact rate. It’s an efficient stroke with fast bat speed, showing gap power now with the bat speed and strength projection to potentially develop average pop”. Baseball America

Uh, yeah, we really like the sound of that.

Just like De Castro, Machado also projects to stay at SS as he climbs the ladder. He’s a switch-hitter that hails from Venezuela and is currently listed at 5’10, 170 lbs. -Mike

Instagram video of Machado available here.

28. Rikelvin De Castro | SS | DNP | 17

95% – Defense-first star SS

50% – Not a big leaguer

De Castro represents the largest bonus the Blue Jays gave an IFA in 2019, inking him to a pact worth $1.2M. It’s been reported by multiple outlets that he’s a glove-first prospect at this point, but the hit tool may ultimately be plus. He’s not physically projectable, though, so he likely won’t hit for much power even as he gets older and develops. –Mike

Instagram video of De Castro can be viewed here.

29. Shun Yamaguchi | RHP | Japan | 33

95% – Solid #5 SP

50% – Decent middle reliever

We hear you, naysayers – you don’t think Yamaguchi should be on this list. But this is our list and we wanted to include him for inclusivity’s sake. Shun signed a 2-year contract worth $6M+ (incentives) this offseason after pitching the last 14 seasons in the Japan Central League (NPB). In 1080 ⅓ career IP, he’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA/3.75 RA9, 1.24 WHIP, and rates of 8.8 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9.

Yamaguchi primarily throws a three-pitch arsenal of a four-seam fastball, splitter, and slider, and will occasionally mix in a two-seam fastball and curveball.

Another pitcher the #MNTwins have interest in: Shun Yamaguchi of the Yomiuri Giants. Twins and other MLB teams have until January 2 to negotiate with him. pic.twitter.com/fQ8qmKaKqU — Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) December 16, 2019

Bonus points for this, uh, salad, or something resembling a garden vegetable. -Mike

30. Julian Merryweather | RHSP | AAA | 28

95% – Closer or #4 SP

50% – Frustrating RP with consistent injuries

On last year’s list, we slotted Merryweather in at #12; this year he’s #30. Why the precipitous drop? “He barely pitched in 2019”, you say. “It doesn’t make sense”, you add. Well, on last year’s list we thought that he would return healthy by June with a chance to build up to a starter’s volume and contribute positively in the second half to a weak Toronto rotation. What actually happened was Merryweather did return in June…and pitched a whopping 6 innings over two appearances before being taken by injury again. He’d go on to miss the rest of the season. Due to that injury, which comes with that much more risk of future injury, we now project him to be a relief pitcher going forward. Those two significant factors are baked into this ranking. But it’s not like we’re off him entirely; there’s also the fact that the farm is deeper than it was last year, which has contributed to his drop in ranking.

Don’t ever pitch, kids. -Mike

31. Tanner Morris | 2B/SS | Short Season A | 21

95% – Average regular

50% – A monthly pass holder on the Buffalo-Toronto shuttle

The scouting reports on Morris indicate that he’s a contact-over-power hitter, which has been seemingly confirmed by his career stats at Virginia and in limited action at Vancouver last season. Having said that, his approach at the plate is not dissimilar to Cavan Biggio – he exhibits a great eye and will wait for his pitch. Much like Biggio, Morris takes his fair share of strikes, as is life as a patient hitter. In Vancouver last year, he walked 16.7% of the time, while striking out 19% of the time. Yes, he was ‘old’ for the level, but he did perform decently. His OBP was .384, which is backed up by his career .427 OBP at Virginia.

As of right now, Morris’ swing is geared toward hitting groundballs (47%, .100 ISO at Vancouver) and, unless he tweaks something in his mechanics, he’s not going to become Cavan Biggio. Most scouts think he’ll move to 2B full-time. Morris is interesting, though, as it’s hard to teach the sort of pitch recognition that he boasts. -Mike

32. Will Robertson | OF | Short Season A | 22

95% – 2-WAR OF

50% – AAA lifer

Taken one round before Tanner Morris in the 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft, Will Robertson possesses a lesser hit tool but more raw power than Morris. Robertson displayed good plate discipline in three years at Creighton and in his brief showing at Vancouver in 2019.

Robertson is a bat-first prospect that may be a 45 hit tool and 55 raw power with a limited defensive ceiling. -Mike

33. Josh Palacios | CF | AA | 25

95% – Poor man’s Kole Calhoun

50% – Cup of coffee

Palacios’ slow and unheralded climb through the Blue Jays minor league system continued in 2019 as he produced a solid 134 wRC+ in 82 games for New Hampshire. The tools are not loud; Palacios’ slightly above average speed has never led to big stolen base totals, he received more reps in the corners than in centre in 2019 so he does not appear to be a legit CF option, and he does not have notable power. He was passed over in the rule 5 draft. He’s getting old. In spite of those negatives and the lack of upside, Palacios has hit at every stop on the minor league ladder and with solid K and BB rates. Sometimes hitters just keep hitting, and there’s some sneaky Kole Calhoun-lite upside with Palacios. –Nick

34. Philip Clarke | C | Short Season A | 22

95% – Productive back-up MLB catcher

50% – Looks back fondly on his CWS championship with Vanderbilt

The Blue Jays drafted Clarke in the 9th round of the 2019 draft and convinced him to forego his junior year at Vandy and sign for a well-overslot deal of $500,000 (slot was $125,000). He was seen as a bat-first prospect until his 2019 season where he made significant strides behind the plate. Clarke was viewed as a possible third or fourth round selection in the draft.

In two years in NCAA, Clarke put up a .302/.385/.467 line with 58 BB and 83 K, 15 homers, 29 doubles, and 4 triples. That sample spanned 128 games, or 572 PA. -Mike

35. Elvis Luciano | RHSP | MLB | 20

98% – Yordano Ventura

50% – Journeyman RP

Imagine if you could remember being born – how traumatizing those memories would be, memories of being squeezed and ripped from such a comforting place into a new world, so cold and alien to all of your naive senses; Dr. Charlie Montoyo slapping your butt to stimulate a cough, I mean, to give you an “atta boy” after your 6.50 xFIP rookie season straight from rookie ball. Good luck in your new life, Elvis. –Nick

36. Hector Perez | RHSP | AA | 24

95% – Closer

50% – Journeyman reliever

The shine has really come off Perez since the trade with the Astros. With David Paulino having been released late last year, it’s rendered the trade basically a straight-up swap of Osuna for Giles, although that’s fine because Giles has been better than Osuna since the swap anyway. But we’re not yet off Perez entirely – he’s got good velocity (92-96, T98) and spin rate (2400 RPM) on his plus fastball and couples it with a plus slider with decent spin (2500 RPM) and an average curveball offering. Unfortunately, Perez has not been able to reign in his command to date and has subsequently failed to improve as a starter.

So, Perez lacks command but has two plus pitches, both with good spin and velocity? Hmm. It almost sounds like he could be an effective back-end relief pitcher, doesn’t it? Make it so, Blue Jays. -Mike

37. Anthony Alford | CF | MLB | 26

95% – Hits enough to be useful enough to stick around the MLB for a number of years

50% – Never sticks in the MLB and plays in Korea

This is Alford’s last kick at the can; he is out of options and, outside of a hot stretch in the second half of last year in AAA, hasn’t performed well in the minor leagues since a partial-season in AA in 2017. It looks like he’ll get a chance to show he belongs this year, perhaps in part due to the new 26-man roster rule. If we’re being honest, we don’t believe he can hit major-league pitching well enough to stick, but he’s got prodigious speed and above-average defense so if he could become even close to a league-average bat, he would be an asset. -Mike

38. Forrest Wall | CF | AAA | 24

95% – 1.5 WAR platoon player

50% – Bad MLB bench piece

A lot of what can be said about Forrest Wall applies to Josh Palacios, listed a few spots higher. This former 35th overall pick is probably not going to be a very useful MLB player. Wall’s above average speed just does not translate into either stolen base proficiency or centrefield competency, which means we’re talking about a corner outfield defender with only fringe-average power. Being said, generally speaking he has been able to get hits and get on base at every minor league level. The advent of 26 man rosters makes it more likely that an MLB team might find a way to squeeze some value out of Wall’s tweener tool-set. –Nick

39. T.J Zeuch | RHSP | MLB | 24

95% – Ugly 2 WAR SP

50% – Replacement level arm

TJ Zoinks’ peripherals in AAA (11.6% K rate and 9.6% BB rate) were so bad that no stat scout would have given him a promotion, but Toronto did and with the big club he was at least able to display a slightly better K-BB% which, along with his groundball tendencies, allowed him to avoid disaster in 22 ⅔ innings. Between the size, groundballs, and decent enough basic three-pitch mix, there are ingredients within TJ Zeuch for a really good MLB pitching coach / organizational pitcher design team to find an aesthetically displeasing league average starter. Try not to gag on the thought of Ivan Nova upside, okay? –Nick

40. Yennsy Diaz | RHSP | MLB | 23

95% – Setup RP

50% – Up and down SP/RP

Diaz held his own in AA as a 22 year old while pitching a lot of innings in a starting role. He then displayed a plus fastball in a brief emergency MLB showing. Youth and a fastball might be his only commodities though, as the scouting reports don’t seem to glow for either of his offspeed offerings and this minor league K rates don’t tell any bat-missing tales. If he can find a functional second pitch then he could be a good fastball-heavy reliever. –Nick

41. Nick Neal | 1B | DNP | 18

99% – Adam Dunn

95% – KBL hero

50% – Bouncer

Nick Neal is listed at 6’6”, 285 lbs. At 18 years old he already has the body of CC Sabathia. He is the personification of a pure power prospect and unsurprisingly his amateur max exit velocities were apparently very high but as a freakishly large, 1B-only prospect from the high school ranks without much pedigree, it’s hard to give him even a 5% chance of being an MLB contributor. The extreme positive outcome is an upper tier power hitter, though. A fun guy to follow. –Nick

42. Michael Dominguez | RHSP | Rookie (GCL) | 19

95% – Back-end SP

50% – Mug of java?

Dominguez is an undersized righthander out of Jefferson HS in Tampa, Florida that forewent a commitment to Florida State to sign with the Blue Jays for an above-slot deal of $197,500 (slot was $125,000). Drafted in the 15th round, Dominguez reportedly currently sits in the 89-92 range, touching 94 with his fastball. Per Perfect Game, from the 2019 World Showcase:

“Medium frame with slender, athletic build…plus arm speed immediately stands out, creates plane to the plate from high three quarters slot, quality extension, uses lower half well. Fastball worked 89-92 mph, mostly straight but flashes solid arm side life, works down in zone with and can elevate. Showed slider with sharp two-plane break, pitch will be a bat-misser for him as he continues to throw it harder, also flashed a changeup to lefthanded hitters that was effective. Mixed and matched three pitches and was very good.” Perfect Game

Dominguez was named to the 2019 World Showcase Top Prospect List. We expect Dominguez to be assigned to Vancouver this summer. -Mike

Video of Dominguez pitching can be found here.

43. Alberto Rodriguez | OF | Rookie (GCL) | 19

95% – League-average corner OF

50% – Fizzles out in the upper minors

Rodriguez flashes four or five tools on occasion, which has helped him catch the eye of some prospect evaluators in the public sphere. Scouts are not yet sold on his ability to hit for power in-game, though. Blessed with the ability to make consistent hard contact, Alberto’s tendency is to hit the ball to the gaps, as his current swing is geared toward hitting line drives.

Rodriguez moved to a corner outfield spot full-time in 2019, limiting his overall upside a bit. Still, if the bat can continue to develop and perhaps he makes some tweaks to gain some loft in his swing, Rodriguez could find himself getting a lot more attention in the near future.

We see Vancouver in his near future. -Mike

44. Ryan Noda | 1B/OF | High-A | 24

98% – Productive platoon 1B/LF

95% – Journeyman 40-man guy throughout his controllable years

50% – AAA veteran

The rumours about Ryan Noda were true – his exciting 2017 and 2018 results were more noise than signal, the product of maturity and patience and not an indication of his physical talents. Striking out 30% of the time in A+ as a 23 year old is not a good recipe for prospect status, and Noda has been described as “stiff and unathletic” so it’s not like that K rate is coming from a raw product with good tools. Being said, Noda was still able to whiff and lumber his way to a .372 OBP and 138 wRC+. He will find himself in the upper minors soon and if he keeps walking and being a comfortably above average offensive player there might be an MLB future for him. -Nick

45. Jordan Romano | RHRP | MLB | 27

95% – Becomes a decent late-inning relief option

50% – Does the Buffalo Shuffle™

Romano was plucked by the Rangers in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2018 before being ultimately returned to the Blue Jays before the season began. Romano slid into a relief role upon returning to the organization and enjoyed some success at the AAA level and earning a promotion to the bigs. His debut was met with some mixed results, but he did display the ability to strike dudes out (12.3 K/9) at the world’s highest level. Romano is much more interesting as a reliever and there’s at least a reasonable chance that he breaks camp with the Blue Jays. -Mike

46. Edisson Gonzalez | RHSP | Short Season A | 20

95% – Mid-inning RP option

50% – Maxes out at AA

One of the PTBNLs in the Eric Sogard trade, Gonzalez is an undersized righty at a listed 5’10”, 160 lbs. The Panamanian pitched about as well as he could have at short season A ball in 2019: 11.12 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 3.14 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, but considering his smaller stature and distance from the major leagues, there is a ton of relief risk here. We should expect to see Gonzalez begin the season in Lansing and he may be one to watch in 2020. -Mike

47. Alejandro Melean | RHSP | Rookie (App) | 19

95% – Spends some time on a major league roster

50% – Doesn’t

While it’s too early to glean much from his minor league numbers, at 18, Melean exhibited some bat-missing abilities in the GCL, but also showed that his command needs much refinement and development. Signed out of Venezuela for $750,000 in 2017, Melean was Baseball America’s top-ranked pitcher in his IFA class, so there’s enough raw stuff here to be interesting.

The one and only Ben Badler described his arsenal this way in 2018:

“Melean has a fluid, athletic delivery and quick arm speed, throwing 88-92 mph and scraping 93 mph. His best pitch is his mid- to upper-70s curveball, which flashes above-average with tight spin and good depth to generate empty swings. Melean’s changeup has made significant progress since signing, and with his arm action and ability to manipulate the ball the pitch has promising upside.” Ben Badler, Baseball America

He’s another guy to keep a close eye on in 2020. -Mike

48. Victor Mesia | C | DNP | 17

99% – 1-WAR big-league bench bat

50% – Stalls out before hitting AA

It’s difficult to source public information on new IFAs, but Mesia is reported to have a plus hit tool and above-average raw power, with a good, strong arm behind the dish. At 5’10, 175 lbs., he’s said to be quite athletic for a catcher. Could we have another Gabriel Moreno in the system? Ben Badler recently said that Mesia looks like one of the best catching prospects from the 2019 IFA class. -Mike

49. Sem Robberse | RHSP | Rookie (GCL) | 18

95% – A low-leverage MLB reliever

50% – Makes his parents very proud

After trades of Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. yielded the Jays some additional cash to use on the international front, the Jays dipped into Europe in June of 2019 to sign Robberse and Jiorgeny Casimiri out of the Netherlands, as well as Cuban Yosver Zulueta. Perhaps the most interesting of the trio is Robberse, who, according to Baseball America, added roughly 5 MPH to his fastball last season and projects well physically. He currently sports a four-pitch mix of four-seam and two-seam fastballs, a changeup, and a breaking ball.

Robberse will probably be held back in Extended and then pitch in Vancouver this summer. -Mike

50. Cristian Feliz | OF | DNP | 17

99% – Power hitting corner outfielder

50% – Might see Lansing?

Feliz is one of the more interesting recent Blue Jays’ international free agents that you may not have heard about. Ben Badler described him as a “6’5” lefty bat with vicious bat speed and monster power potential”.

Check out this Instagram video of his swing. –Nick

Honourable Mentions: Yorman Rodriguez, 1B; Adrian Montero, 2B; Peniel Brito, 3B; Brock Lundquist, OF; Jackson Rees, RHRP; Cullen Large, 2B/3B; Kyle Johnston, RHRP; Nick Allgeyer, LHSP; Logan Warmoth, SS; Samad Taylor, 2B; Jake Fishman, LHRP; Yosver Zulueta, RHSP; Graham Spraker, RHSP; Geyber Jimenez, C; Sean Rackoski, RHRP; Dahian Santos, RHSP; Zach Logue, LHSP; Curtis Taylor, RHRP

Peniel Brito – we could have easily slotted him into one of the last spots in the top 50. A big guy from Toronto’s 2019 J2 class with, reportedly, plus bat speed and power potential.

Nick Allgeyer – great results in Dunedin, but he was old for the level and the stuff does not sound impressive.

Yosver Zulueta – signed for a cool million out of Cuba at the tail-end of the 2018 signing period (June 2019); had Tommy John surgery after signing, but pairs an upper-90s fastball with a promising curveball.

Dahian Santos – his stuff has ticked up considerably since signing last July. At 16, he’s reportedly already touching 94 on his fastball and has a potential plus changeup and a developing breaking ball.

Zach Logue – super boring, but the numbers have consistently been decent in a starting role and the stuff sounds average enough. You can justify putting him somewhere in the top 50. He might have an MLB future, most likely as a long reliever.

Logan Warmoth – we can’t see any silver lining here; the numbers have been atrocious and the reports on his defense are also not promising.

Samad Taylor – some websites have him inside the top 30 still. He remains young, but two straight years of hitting under .230 has us thinking that he has uncorrectable pool noodle game power.