With the advances of aDNA, we have now begun to tackle questions, such as the origin of the “Scythian peoples”. This was first seen with Unterlander et al (2017), and more were included into Damgaard et al (2018). With the help of Allentoft et al (2015), Mathieson et al. (2018), Narasimhan et al. (2018), along the two previously mentioned papers, I will check the question of origin for the early Iranian nomads.

Bagley (n.d.), attempted to summarize the work on the early Zhou period and their interaction with Siberian Bronze Age center. This was based on work by Loeuwe & Shaugnessy (1999). This highlights interesting aspects of the trade between these two groups, with artifacts related to the Karasuk culture spreading to not only China, but also towards Europe (Bagley, n.d.). While their early dating of a movement (Chernyk, 2008), does not really match the genetic view to this point, there are later samples which hint in this direction.

Since the time of Herodotus, many have had their own ideas on the origins of the Scythians. Mallory (1989) noted that some thought that the origin lie in the west, in the region north of the Black Sea. Others, saw the Scythians, and Iranians in general, as originating in Central Asia, and even Siberia. Some have even thought that a multi-regional origin was more likely, with changes being cultural, rather than demographic.

Davis-Kimball (2005), was one that saw the Scythians as a group that was multi-ethnic, rather than group with a single origin, or denoting a single group of people. Sometimes, anything west of Inner Mongolia and China was referred to as Scythian, but Scythian would also sometimes be restricted to those in the Western and Central Steppes (Di Cosimo, 1999).

The first way to go at this, I feel, is to look at Karasuk. A culture that Mallory (1997), described as very mobile, compared to Andronovo, that is known more by their kurgan burials than their settlements. Karasuk is also seen as being highly influential and starting the animal art so common among the “Scythian” people (Keyser et al, 2009). Mallory (1997) even mentions the potential of the Karasuk to have a specific “proto-Iranian” identity. The influence of the Yenesei, and Slab Grave people cannot be underplayed (Mallory, 1997). Okunevo is thought to be a mix of Afanasievo and local Yeneseian groups (Great Soviet Encyclopedia, 1979), in an area later within the Andronovo sphere, and this mixing may likely be the formation of the Karasuk culture within the Minusinsk Basin. Okunevo is thought to be the group that introduced realistic animal art to these later steppe pastoralists as well.

First of all, I wanted to take a look at the Karasuk cluster that is closer to the Andronovo samples in PCA. To understand the make-up of Karasuk, I first used qpAdm to find a valid model of their origin. With qpAdm, the set of right populations, or outgroups chosen included Mbuti_DG, Ust_Ishim, Kostenki14, EHG, Villabruna, Ganj_Dareh_N, Anatolia_N, Steppe_EMBA, Karitiana, and the Ami.

The most successful model of the Karasuk culture needed excess Han-related ancestry, in addition to the ENA found in the Okunevo samples. Best exemplified with the Shamanka_BA run.

Karasuk

Chi-square Tail-prob Andronovo Okunevo Han 17.866 0.0222543 0.721 0.279 NA std error 0.02 0.02 NA Chi-square Tail-prob Andronovo Okunevo Han 9.613 0.211584 0.766 0.178 0.056 std error 0.026 0.04 0.019

Chi-square Tail-prob Andronovo Shamanka_BA 5.1 0.746845 0.814 0.186 std error 0.016 0.016

Looking at the Deeper Ancestry of the Karasuk Culture, I tried to make them a mix of Sintashta, Afanasievo, and an ENA group from the Baikal area, Shamanka_EN. This made sense as to making a mixture of a Siberian hunter, Bronze Age steppe pastoralists, and also Middle to Late Bronze Age groups in Central Asia. While the standard errors are a little high, it is clear that the dominant ancestry in Karasuk is Sintashta-related.

Chi-square Tail-prob Sintashta Shamanka_EN Afanasievo 6.196 0.625314 0.686 0.189 0.125 std error 0.069 0.014 0.07

After adding Steppe_MLBA, Germany_MN, and West_Siberia_N to the pright outgroups:

Chi-square Tail-prob Sintashta Shamanka_BA Afanasievo 7.951 0.633621 0.541 0.178 0.281 std error 0.081 0.017 0.081

Interstingly, the Karasuk is also seen to have expanded, if not influenced all the way towards the Black Sea, and at least the Aral Sea (((((((((Trying to relocate citation!!!!!!))))))))

Other samples, dating to about the same time, North of the Aral sea are seen in Mezhovskaya. Even more interesting, is that samples are near genetic dittos to the Karasuk samples. Could Mezhovskaya be part of the western Karasuk group that creates the great cultural uniformity among earlier Iranian nomads through the Scythian period? Potentially, yes.

Mezhovskaya

Chi-square Tail-prob Andronovo Okunevo Han 12.248 0.140492 0.741 0.259 NA std error 0.028 0.028 NA Chi-square Tail-prob Andronovo Okunevo Han 6.036 0.535555 0.784 0.151 0.064 std error 0.032 0.051 0.025

Chi-square Tail-prob Andronovo Shamanka_BA 5.318 0.723087 0.846 0.154 std error ..022 0.022

With Chechushkov et al (2018), we see that horse-riding in battle may have begun in Central Asia between 1500-1200 BCE. Which is, of course, during the highly mobile Karasuk period and within the range of these groups.

Mezhovskaya can essentially be modeled as 100% Karasuk with qpAdm, as any additional ancestry is within the standard error of that component.

The next question then is, is Karasuk, and possibly by extension Mezhovskaya, the homeland and ancestors of the Scythians? Are they also ancestral to the western Scythians, as far as Hungary?

The first Scythian group I looked at was the Tagar Culture, which followed the Karasuk in the Minusinsk Basin. The Karasuk is indeed very important here for the Tagar. Even the Karasuk+Karasuk outlier combo works here. What’s even more interesting about the Tagar culture, is the great similarity between their art and that of the European Scythians (Keyser et al, 2009; Encyclopaedia Britannica, n.d.).

Tagar

Chi-square Tail-prob Karsuk Okunevo 5.291 0.726104 0.933 0.067 std error 0.037 0.037 Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Shamanka_BA 7.201 0.515133 0.967 0.033 std error 0.021 0.021

Pazyryk

The Pazyryk Culture is another well-known group of Scythians, that include the famous tattooed mummy. Their culture is seen as having been very warlike (Citation)))))))))))))

They also require a lot of Karasuk ancestry and also groups that are from nearby, or closely related groups to these samples.

Chi-square Tail-prob Karsuk Okunevo Han 16.037 0.0247822 0.313 0.34 0.347 std error 0.036 0.05 0.023 Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk ShamankaBA Han 1.761 0.971876 0.43 0.43 0.14 std error 0.028 0.08 0.061

Zevakino_Chilikta

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Okunevo 116.899 1.45E-21 0.41 0.59 std error 0.089 0.089

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk BMAC Han 6.075 0.531047 0.568 0.099 0.333 std error 0.045 0.042 0.019

Tian-Shan Saka

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Okunevo BMAC Han 10.628 0.10059 0.574 0.134 0.21 0.082 std error 0.06 0.047 0.023 0.018

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk ShamankaBA BMAC 10.703 0.152108 0.618 0.173 0.209 std error 0.04 0.017 0.033

The Tian-Shan Saka graph here did get a little over-complicated for my taste, but with such a complex mixture it might be bound to happen.

Central_Saka

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Okunevo Han BMAC 6.786 .341095 0.429 0.284 0.180 0.107 std error 0.06 0.051 0.02 0.034

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Shamanka_BA BMAC 2.488 .927977 0.526 0.372 0.102 std error 0.044 0.019 0.036

Scythian_Samara (Steppe_IA)

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Armenia_EBA 20.194 0.00962638 0.923 0.077 std error 0.048 0.048

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk BMAC 15.104 0.0571488 0.863 0.137 std error 0.042 0.042

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk BMAC West_Siberia 9.936 0.192223 0.769 0.166 0.065 std error 0.067 0.045 0.037

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk BMAC Botai 8.261 0.310125 0.674 0.236 0.089 std error 0.108 0.068 0.056

Chi-square Tail-prob Mezhovskaya BMAC 12.765 0.120182 0.913 0.087 std error 0.05 0.05

Chi-square Tail-prob Tagar BMAC 17.493 0.0253636 0.841 0.159 std error 0.042 0.042

Hungarian Scythian

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Hungary_BA 13.624 0.0921081 0.355 0.645 std error 0.035 0.035

Chi-square Tail-prob Karasuk Balkan_BA 13.99 0.0820368 0.247 0.753 std error 0.037 0.037

Chi-square Tail-prob Scythian_Samara Hungary_BA 18.514 0.0176836 0.314 0.686 std error 0.029 0.029

Chi-square Tail-prob Mezhovskaya Hungary_BA 16.258 0.0388319 0.339 0.661 std error 0.043 0.043

Allentoft et al., Population genomics of Bronze Age Eurasia, Nature 522, 167–172 (11 June 2015) doi:10.1038/nature14507

Bagley, R. Shang Archaeology; The Northern Zone. (1999) http://s155239215.onlinehome.us/turkic/btn_Archeology/Zhou/CambridgeZhouChouArcheologyNorthEn.htm

“Central Asian arts: Neolithic and Metal Age cultures”. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica

Chechushkov et al., Early horse bridle with cheekpieces as a marker of social change: An experimental and statistical study, Journal of Archaeological Science, Volume 97, September 2018, Pages 125-136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2018.07.012

Chernykh, The Formation of the Eurasian “Steppe Belt” of Stockbreeding Cultures. http://www.academia.edu/22557016/FORMATION_OF_THE_EURASIAN_STEPPE_BELT_OF_STOCKBREEDING_CULTURES.BY_E.N._Chernykh

Di Cosimo, Nicola, “The Northern Frontier in Pre-Imperial China (1,500 – 221 BC)”, in: M. Loeuwe, E.L. Shaughnessy, eds, The Cambridge History of Ancient China: From the Origins of Civilization to 221BC, 1999, Cambridge University Press 1999, ISBN 9780521470308

Keyser, Christine; Bouakaze, Caroline; Crubézy, Eric; Nikolaev, Valery G.; Montagnon, Daniel; Reis, Tatiana; Ludes, Bertrand (May 16, 2009). “Ancient DNA provides new insights into the history of south Siberian Kurgan people”. Human Genetics. Springer-Verlag

Mallory, J. P. (1997). Encyclopedia of Indo-European Culture. Taylor & Francis. ISBN 1884964982

Mathieson et al., (2018) The genomic history of southeastern Europe. Nature 555, 197-203. (Paper / doi:10.1038/nature25778)

Narasimhan et al, The Genomic Formation of South and Central Asia, Posted March 31, 2018, doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/292581

“Okunev Culture”. The Great Soviet Encyclopedia. 1979

Unterländer et al., Ancestry and demography and descendants of Iron Age nomads of the Eurasian Steppe, Nature Communications 8, Article number: 14615 (2017), doi:10.1038/ncomms14615