Poll shows LDS Church opposition to Prop. 2 is causing more Utahns to vote against the initiative than for it

By a bare plurality, the LDS Church’s opposition to the medical marijuana initiative on November’s ballot makes more Utahns likely to vote “no” than to vote “yes,” a new UtahPolicy.com poll shows.

However, pollster Dan Jones & Associates finds that outside of “very active” members of the LDS Church and Republicans, other groups say they are MORE likely to vote “yes” on Prop. 2 because of the church’s opposition.

Jones also finds that 43 percent of Utahns have actually read the 27 pages of Prop. 2, while 55 percent said they have not read the initiative, which can be found here.

Jones finds:-- 43 percent Utahns are “somewhat less” or “much less” likely to vote for Prop. 2 because Mormon leaders now oppose the medical marijuana initiative.

41 percent are actually MORE likely to vote for it just because the LDS Church opposes it.

And 17 percent “don’t know” how the church’s opposition affects their Prop. 2 vote this fall.

The strong opposition from church leaders is, of course, a two-edged sword.

Faithful Mormons will tend to support their leaders’ stands on a public issue. But having the big elephant in the room take a position tends to make non-Mormons resent that interference and move in the opposite direction.

And that is what Jones’ numbers indicated:

Most Utah Mormons are Republicans, and Jones finds that the church’s stand makes them, 55-24 percent, be more likely to oppose Prop. 2.

Democrats are just the opposite: The church’s stand, by 75-14 percent, makes it more likely they will vote for Prop. 2.

Political independents are split; because of the church’s stand, 46 percent are more likely to vote for Prop. 2, 40 percent say they are less likely to support medical marijuana.

Of course, one’s religious beliefs have a great impact on how you feel about the LDS Church leaders’ opposition to Prop.. 2:-- Those who told Jones they are “very active” in the LDS Church – pay tithing and hold a temple recommend – will be more likely to vote “no” on Prop. 2, 65-18 percent.

Seventeen percent of “very active” Mormons don’t know how the church’s stand will affect their vote.

However, then the tide turns on the church’s involvement:

“Somewhat active” Mormons say they are more likely to support Prop. 2 because of their own church’s opposition, 48-36 percent.

Those who used to be Mormons, but have left the faith, are more likely to support Prop. 2, 66-15 percent.

Every other faith is MORE likely to vote “yes” on Prop. 2 because of the LDS Church’s opposition to it:

Catholics, 76-13 percent more likely to vote “yes.”

Protestants, 69-16 percent more likely to support Prop. 2.

Members of other faiths, 69-13 percent more likely to vote for Prop. 2.

And those who said they hold no religious beliefs are more likely to vote for medical marijuana, 80-11 percent.

Finally, UtahPolicy.com has been looking at how the close 4th District race between GOP Rep. Mia Love and Democratic challenger Ben McAdams may be affected by various UtahPolicy poll results.

On this issue – whether the LDS Church leaders’ opposition to Prop. 2 effects one’s stand on medical marijuana – Jones finds:

46 percent of 4th District voters are MORE likely to support Prop. 2 because of the church’s stand.

38 percent are LESS likely to support Prop. 2.

And 16 percent of 4th District voters don’t know how the church’s stand will affect their vote.

Jones polled 809 adult voters statewide in the Aug. 22-31 survey. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.