The waiting game over just what economic and other plans POTUS has up his sleeve has been slowing this stock market to a painful crawl.

Of course, some will tell you all that uncertainty may eventually be good for stocks. But while we’re waiting for President Donald Trump to get stock investors excited, or really scared, it’s worth keeping an eye on other assets, which have triggered volatility for equities in the past.

That brings us to oil — one asset that should never go ignored by investors too long. Our call of the day comes from Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor. He says it’s time to buck the big-money trend and short oil, because those who produce the black stuff think the price right now really should be at $30.

Here’s a series of tweets he pushed out Monday:

Pal’s call comes after the latest weekly Commitment of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (ending Jan. 17) showed hedge funds and other money managers placed more bullish oil positions than any week since 2006. That’s as actual producers upped their short hedges to the highest level since 2007, in a bid to lock in higher prices. (Check out chart of the day in Monday’s Need to Know)

No one can deny the magnificent rally — roughly 65% — that crude has seen over the past 12 months. But cheers over the post-OPEC output-cut deal are dying down as U.S. shale producers seem ready to pick up the slack. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch are warning that oil prices in local currencies are nearing 2014 levels, and that could cut into emerging-market demand growth.

Protectionist policies from Trump and the U.K. could also hold back global trade, and hence curb oil demand, those analysts say.

Then there’s the expectation by some that Trump will introduce measures to support the U.S. oil and gas industry, and wean the country off foreign suppliers. Rising U.S. supply, of course, will lean on prices in the coming month, Commerzbank told clients, adding: “In view of the record-high optimism exhibited by speculative financial investors, we see a risk of falling prices.”

Key market gauges

The S&P SPX, -1.11% , Dow DJIA, -0.87% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.07% are off to the races after a timid start, with the major indexes aiming for fresh records.

Check out the steep fall for the Turkish lira USDTRY, +0.14% this morning, which came after the Turkish central bank unexpectedly left benchmark rates at 8%. Read: Decisive action is needed to save the lira, analysts say

The dollar DXY, +0.03% tumbled, then recovered, on comments from Trump’s Treasury pick Steven Mnuchin. The British pound GBPUSD, -0.42% fell after the U.K. Supreme Court said Prime Minister Theresa May needs to consult lawmakers before beginning the Brexit.

Gold US:GCG7 finished lower, and oil prices CLG27, are settled above $53 a barrel.

European SXXP, -0.66% markets are up, and Asia equities ADOW, +0.33% ended broadly higher even after the U.S. pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

The chart

Investors shouldn’t completely shun bonds right now, says Glenmede’s director of investment strategy, Jason Pride.

See:Investment chiefs say avoid this asset as ‘Trumponomics’ arrive

“Investors may get the urge to sell bonds in this environment, but shouldn’t give up on the asset class as they provide a good counterbalance during equity market selloffs,” Prides says in a weekly note.

But not just any old bonds, says Pride: “When rates are low and yield is scarce, investors should employ for a portion of their allocation a more opportunistic strategy that is not constrained to investing in the traditional fixed income securities that carry low yield and higher interest rate sensitivity.”

The buzz

Lots of earnings ahead of the market open: 3M MMM, -1.64% , Lockheed Martin LMT, -0.20% , Verizon VZ, -0.39% , Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +1.36% , Travelers TRV, -0.87% and DuPont DD, -2.43% .

Alibaba BABA, -1.20% is up 4% after a Singles Day boost to sales.

SLB, -1.83% Texas Instruments TXN, -1.23% and Alcoa AA, -0.96% are coming after the close.

Read: GE and IBM have ‘unusual’ earnings reports in common

Apple AAPL, -3.17% got a rare downgrade from Barclays analysts, who cut their 12-month price target to $117 from $119, citing sluggish industrywide smartphone sales..

Watch autos today with Trump set to have breakfast with the chief executives of Ford F, -0.68% , General Motors GM, -1.31% and Fiat FCAU, -3.46% .

Meanwhile, the lending arm of Ford F, -0.68% has tapped a San Francisco startup over selling cars online.

BT is down about 19% in New York and London, on new revelations in an Italian accounting scandal that has wiped $9 billion off the U.K. telecoms giant’s market cap in one day.

Yahoo US:YHOO says its $4.8 billion deal with Verizon VZ, -0.39% will close a quarter later than expected.

On the data docket, the Markit manufacturing PMI is coming at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, then it’s existing home sales at 10 a.m.

The stat

3 million to 5 million — That’s how many illegal immigrants voted, Trump has stated once again at a meeting of congressional lawmakers on Monday, despite there being no supporting evidence for the claim. The new president says those voters might easily have cost him the popular vote.

The quote

“If the world ends — and not even if the world ends, but if we have trouble — getting contacts or glasses is going to be a huge pain in the ass.” — Steve Huffman, the founder of Reddit.

The 33-year-old chief executive was talking about his doomsday survival plans to the New Yorker, as were some other uber-wealthy individuals.

Random reads

Estimates from Women’s March organizers don’t quite match official crowd numbers.

Oscar 2017 nominations rolled out.

#LooPaperGate rains down on Hong Kong politician.

From Russia with love

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