Week 5 in the NFL is over and with it came more heroic performances, duds, and injuries. If you want to check out how I did with my Hot Plays and Hesitations, you can find the article here.

As we head into Week 6, there’s more of an established foundation for who you can and can’t trust.

Week 6 Fantasy Football Hot Plays and Hesitations.

Quarterbacks

Hot Plays

Tom Brady, Patriots (@ Giants)

Brady is currently ranked as the QB7 in terms of total scoring, though this is largely due to a 150 yard/no touchdown performance in Week 4. If you take out that outlier, he’s averaging 314.8 passing yards, 2.5 passing touchdowns and 23.6 fantasy points per game. In Week 6, he gets a matchup with a Giants pass defense that has allowed 279.4 passing yards per game (5th-worst) to go along with 10 touchdowns through the air (tied for 4th-worst). Brady is playing as if he’s a 25-year-old and don’t expect that to change against the struggling New York Football Giants. Start him with confidence.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings (vs. Eagles)

I am not a believer that Cousins’ Week 5 performance against the Giants (22-of-27 for 306 yards and two touchdowns) is indicative of how he will play the rest of the year. As mentioned previously, the Giants have a bad pass defense. Know who else has a poor pass defense though? That would be Minnesota’s Week 6 opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles.

Yes, the Philly defense just stomped all over the Jets in Week 5, but the Jet offense without Sam Darnold isn’t a legitimate NFL offense. Despite a 31-6 route in which the Eagles allowed 120 yards through the air and picked off Luke Falk twice, they still have allowed 271.2 passing yards per game (6th-worst) to go with nine passing touchdowns (5th-worst).

On the flip side, the Eagles have allowed 63 rushing yards per game, best in the NFL. Ironically, the matchup against the Jets actually hurt this average, as the Jets rushed for 67 yards in the contest. Dalvin Cook‘s volume is elite and he’s playing at an All-Pro level, but the Bears proved that a good run defense can contain him (14 carries for 35 yards in Week 4). I don’t see Cousins ever throwing for 350 yards and four touchdowns. But is 275 and three out of the question against a porous Eagles secondary? I certainly don’t think so.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (vs. Falcons)

The Falcons do feature an improved pass defense compared to last year. However, they just got torched by Deshaun Watson, who completed a perfect passer rating while throwing for 426 yards with five touchdowns. Watson also added 47 yards on the ground. Kyler Murray meanwhile enters Week 6 as the QB8 in scoring. He’s been remarkably consistent and has scored on the ground in consecutive weeks. It’s a favorable matchup at home against an Atlanta defense that now has allowed 12 passing touchdowns in five games and has only generated two interceptions. I like Murray to have a big game in the air and on the ground this week.

Hesitations

Matthew Stafford, Lions (@ Packers)

In the midst of a nice rebound year, Stafford ranks as the QB8 in terms of per-game scoring. While he’s no longer a given to throw 50 passes on a weekly basis, he’s nevertheless been a solid starting option through the first five weeks of the season. The Lions have exceeded expectations, but I wouldn’t go anywhere near Stafford this week. Detroit travels to play a Green Bay squad that is one of the hottest teams in the NFL. After allowing Dak Prescott to pass for 463 yards on 44 attempts, the Packers still are only allowing 238.6 passing yards per game. They’ve also totaled seven interceptions (2nd in the NFL) through the early going. The game is in Green Bay, the crowd will be raucous, the weather will be cold, and the Packers will roll. Look for safer options.

Jared Goff, Rams (vs. 49ers)

In what should be a good matchup, the Rams will host the 49ers in Week 6. The 49ers just destroyed the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. To me, that defense is legit. Through four games, San Francisco has allowed 175.8 passing yards per game (2nd-best) to go along with only five passing touchdowns (tied for 4th-best). They’ve totaled seven interceptions (tied for 2nd-most) despite already having their bye week. Jared Goff scares me in this one. He enters Week 6 as the QB16 in terms of per-game scoring but has been rather hot and cold. Against the two top-10 pass defenses that he’s played (Carolina and Cleveland), Goff passed for a combined 454 yards with three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a fumble. He scored 23.5 fantasy points combined in those two games. If you’re in a deep league and are desperate, take the chance on him. If you have options and there is anyone worth streaming available, do it.

Jameis Winston, Bucs (vs. Panthers)

Winston had a terrible start to the season, putting up 20.3 combined points against San Francisco and Carolina in the first two weeks. Since then, he’s averaged 24.1 points per game against the Giants, Rams, and Saints. Unfortunately for Winston, he gets another divisional matchup against the Panthers in Week 6. Carolina is only allowing 197 passing yards per game(4th-best) while racking up 20 sacks (2nd-most). They’ve only allowed six passing touchdowns so far (tied for 5th-best in the NFL). Winston is the ultimate boom or bust option, but I think the latter is a much more likely possibility this week. Until he plays well against a good secondary, I’m hesitant to trust him. Look for more favorable matchups elsewhere.

Running Backs

Hot Plays

Kerryon Johnson, Lions (@ Packers)

Yes, the Green Bay pass defense has been stingy but the run defense has been another story. The Packers have allowed 138.2 rushing yards per game (7th-worst) and seven rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd-worst). They’re allowing 5.2 yards per carry (tied for 3rd-worst). Johnson enters Week 6 as the RB25 in terms of fantasy points per game, but volume certainly isn’t the issue. He’s the clear bell-cow back in the Detroit offense, averaging 18.5 carries per game, seventh-most in the NFL. With 46 carries over his last two games, Johnson is trending in the right direction. From volume alone, he’s a solid starting option this week and the matchup only helps.

Carlos Hyde, Texans (@ Chiefs)

I can’t believe that I am writing this. All year, I’ve been anti-Hyde because why wouldn’t you be? He’s not usually efficient at all and to me, there’s a reason that he’s been on so many teams in such a short period of time. However, I like the matchup that much. Don’t misunderstand me, I am NOT saying to plug Hyde in as an RB1 and I’d be very uneasy about starting him as an RB2. But to me, he’s a big-time boom candidate for your Flex spot.

He’s gotten double-digit carries in every game and has had 20 twice, including last week. The Chiefs have gotten gashed on the ground this year, allowing 155.8 rushing yards per game (3rd-worst in the NFL). Kansas City is also allowing 5.3 yards per carry, second-worst in the league. They’ve allowed 100-yard rushers in three out of five games so far (Josh Jacobs ran for 99 yards in one of the two non-100 yard games). I don’t trust Hyde and he doesn’t offer much of anything as a receiver, but if you can afford to take the risk, start him at your Flex because the Kansas City run defense is that bad.

Mark Ingram II, Ravens (vs. Bengals)

Death, taxes, and running on the Cincinnati defense. The Bengals have allowed at least one rushing score in every game and they’ve allowed a total of seven on the season, tied for worst in the league. Mark Ingram has had somewhat of an up and down season. In the three games in which Ingram has at least one rushing score, he’s averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game. In the other two games, he’s averaged 8.9. The former New Orleans Saint is tied for second in the NFL with six total rushing touchdowns. I like Ingram this week against a bad Bengals team that can’t seem to stop anybody. Cincy is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (5th-worst). Ingram has big-time breakout ability this week and is a legitimate RB2 start.

Hesitations

Phillip Lindsay, Broncos (vs. Titans)

Lindsay had an outstanding Week 5 on the road against the Chargers and he usually has enough work in the passing game to keep him relevant regardless of his success on the ground. However, I don’t like the matchup against a Tennessee defense that’s allowed only two rushing scores all year, tied for 3rd-fewest in the NFL. They’ve been slightly above average in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (104.8) and yards per carry allowed (4.4). The Titans haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher yet this year and I don’t like how boom or bust Lindsay has been. In two games against the Packers and Chargers, he’s totaled 36 carries for 195 yards and three touchdowns. In the other three games, Lindsay has carried the football 33 times for 132 yards and no scores. I’d hesitate to start him if you have other options.

Todd Gurley II, Rams (vs. 49ers)

Please note, I am not saying to “sit” Gurley. But, do not pencil him in as your RB1 this week. The volume is nowhere near where it used to be to the point where he’s somewhat touchdown-dependent. Gurley has not totaled more than 16 carries in a game this season and has benefited from some goal-line work. He doesn’t look “bad”, but we’re just not seeing the efficiency that we’re used to with this guy. He’s scored four times over the last two weeks but has done so on 20 carries for 67 yards.

The 49ers are allowing 81.8 yards per game on the ground (5th-best) and have yet to allow a rushing score this season. They’re allowing less than four yards per carry and I just see this being a very touchdown-dependent game for Gurley. Of course, he could get three goal-line carries and score three touchdowns, but I’m extremely uneasy about the matchup and his lack of volume. If you can get away with running him out there as your RB2 or even a Flex (somehow) then do it.

Jordan Howard, Eagles (@ Vikings)

Before you laugh, he’s owned in 83.1% of leagues and is RB19 in terms of scoring on the year. Howard has performed especially well the last two weeks (44.7 points) and Head Coach Doug Pederson insinuated that Howard should see an increasing amount of work over the next few weeks. He’s a good option to have on your bench and a viable Flex play moving forward, but don’t risk starting him this week. The Vikings have only allowed one rushing touchdown in five games and are allowing 88.2 rushing yards per game, good for 9th-best in the NFL. They’ve surrendered an uninspiring 3.6 yards per carry (4th-best) as well. There are safer Flex options out there.