Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

At UFC 183 two very different fighters will collide as their long, winding paths finally cross.

In one corner stands Nick Diaz, a man of erosion, a wave that breaks with unvarying strength and tempo against a cliff face, seemingly doing nothing until the rock begins to show cracks. Cracks become fissures and eventually the whole cliff face collapses. Diaz is a force of nature in the cage, not overwhelming but overworking his opponents. A hundred punches a round, and the body work and pace to make a man feel like he's been working for twenty-five minutes at the start of the second round.

In the other corner stands Anderson Silva, a man of the instant. An opportunist. A marvel of speed and science. There is no grind or attrition with Silva, he spends minutes at a time baiting a trap. A single mistimed punch, a strike thrown from too far out, or a slight loss of balance and Silva will pounce. An instructor in the rudiments of the sweet science, Silva doesn't always practice the perfect method, but is more than happy to point out his opponents flaws.

Both men have been called the best boxer in mixed martial arts, or the best striker in mixed martial arts. Let's assess the validity of this lofty praise.

The Benefit of Hindsight

It used to be that we spoke about Heath Herring or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira as fighters from the future. They were so rounded—they could grapple and strike. The same was true of Tito Ortiz, Frank Shamrock, etc, etc. One thing remains constant, the game keeps evolving.

We can look back at Nogueira or Ortiz and say, “they weren't rounded, they couldn't strike for love nor money,” but we can look further back, to Mark Coleman or Royce Gracie, and suddenly Nogueira and Ortiz look like complete fighters. If you stick with mixed martial arts, one day—maybe not for a few years yet—you will look back on Diaz and Silva's striking and see holes that will be glaring by that time, but are going unnoticed by many fans even now.

The consensus on Diaz and Silva's weaknesses is the simple answer, "wrestling". Hell, Nick Diaz was steered clear of elite takedown artists for half a decade after Sean Sherk dirty boxed him up. But let's not settle for the simplistic, one dimensional answer.

The truth is that “boxing” is composed of a thousand aspects and in mixed martial arts "boxing" is really just means "combination punching and counter punching." That's the difference between a good MMA boxer and a “banger."

King of the Hitters

Diaz is one of the finest combination punchers in the sport, his strike flow freely and continuously, he doubles up on blows, he targets the body. He does a ton of things that we constantly despair about other fighters not doing, and it all pays off fantastically for him.

Important in the Diaz arsenal are the double ups, or the so-called “lever punches.” This is where you throw a punch and rather than throwing the other hand immediately after, you follow with a punch from the same hand. “Lever” because it levers open the guard of the opponent as they attempt to play catch up.

It is also great to see that Diaz places some value on backhanding opponents. After a lead hook he'll immediately backhand an opponent in the face to blind them for the following left hand. This was on full display against Scott Smith.

But if you want to knock out men who have never been hurt before, one of the best things you can do is go to the body. Diaz does it from range and from tight on the inside. In fact, Diaz's infighting is some of the most beautiful in the game as he uses his head to push the opponent back and into an upright position while he slaps a few hooks to the body, or as he cross faces and bullies his opponents around while he punches them with the other hand.

We spoke a little (in my Path of Diaz series) about his over-reliance on his lead hand when K.J. Noons beautifully out boxed Diaz, but we haven't really seen Diaz against another strong hand fighter since, and since Silva ordinarily fights mainly as a southpaw (particularly against other southpaws, where he can get his strong right jab off) it's not really worth looking into all that much, just keep it in mind.

Diaz's great flaw? He can't cut of the ring very well at all. If his opponents back themselves onto the fence, he's laughing. If they don't? He will follow them around the ring, throwing his hands out in frustration, getting hit in the face in between. Pushing forwards without actually anticipating the opponent's movements and taking steps to smother them is at best just following a fighter around the cage, at worst it's dictating the pace you eat punches to the face.

It's very simple, as a southpaw most of Diaz's fights take place in Open Guard or Open Position. Because Nick comes forward in such a narrow stance, his opponent can easily step out past his lead leg and pivot off.



And a circle out in the other direction, for good measure.

Now Nick's right hook is his best punch, which you would think would be conducive to hitting the opponent as they try to circle out in that direction, but Diaz's narrow stance makes the hook perfect for straight in front of him, or countering as the opponent pushes back into him (see his knockouts of Robbie Lawler and Marius Zaromskis) but ill suited for catching opponents as they circle.



Diaz's hook works best on a line.

Another key flaw in that stance is that it's very easy to shift Diaz's feet about by kicking his lead leg. We've seen his brother—who fights nearly identically—thrown to the floor numerous times by outside low kicks, but against Condit even the so called “leg jab” kicks which Condit threw were enough to take Nick's lead foot across and have him recovering as Condit circled away from danger again.

A final major consideration in this bout is Diaz's tendency to throw himself head first into the double collar tie. While he uses it, as Fabio Maldonado attempts to, to bang away at the body, Anderson Silva's double collar tie is widely acknowledged as one of the most dangerous places to chill out in the sport. Silva's DCT was enough to fight off Yushin Okami's wrestling on its own, and his knockouts of Rich Franklin are an unforgettable reminder of the dangers of giving Silva this position.



Some of Diaz's best work comes as he cross faces out of the double collar tie. Not a great place to hang out against Anderson Silva.

Silva, meanwhile, hates to lead. To the point where if he is forced to lead he will do it almost entirely with kicks, and especially pecking low kicks. In his bout with Maia he threw 60 strikes in total, more than 40 of which were to the calf and knee. This is not a man who likes to step in and punch unless he already has his opponent providing the openings as Griffin, Okami and so many others did.

His claim to “best boxer in MMA” is also undermined by his shortcomings as an all around striker, though. No, it's not that he can't cut off the cage, it's that he relies on his opponent doing something stupid to connect his big punches. Against Forrest Griffin, or one of the many, many, many fighters who will happily run or lunge in punching, this leads to scintillating knockouts.

Against Chris Weidman, one of the finest ring cutters in MMA to date, Silva was left without the opportunity to counter. His hands came down, his antics started, and all that happened was that he ate non-committal jabs with no return. For more on that I highly recommend reading the previous Reflections On Silva vs Weidman I.



Though Silva and Diaz are completely different fighters, they deal with things not going their own way in exactly the same manner.

We spoke about his telegraphed power low kicks last time, which cost him against Weidman in their second fight, but really this is Nick Diaz we're talking about. It would be a terrific step forward and a surprise if he finally started checking low kicks.

Conclusions

Earlier this week, Fightland covered some of the fighters' predictions for the bout and it was interesting to see Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson bringing the unapologetic truth. Johnson said:

“It’s a mismatch. Anderson should be able to eat him alive if he’s confident.”

And while I never make predictions, the stylistic match up is a horrible one for Diaz. He walks forward, he can't cut off the ring, and he repeatedly throws himself head first into the double collar tie when he gets there. As Silva ordinarily circles the cage for most of round one, doing little, you can expect Diaz's hands to come out, the smack talking to start, and Diaz to walk onto punches with more and more tenacity.

The strength and size advantage for Silva is a significant one. The reason that none of the other super fights from the “summer of super fights” the other year came to fruition is that there is a reason that fighters cut weight. You've seen them at weigh-ins, they're miserable, hungry, and dehydrated. They aren't going to give up their strength at a weight class they spend weeks killing themselves to fight in, to immediately fight the best in the world at the weight class above.

Diaz has fought at middleweight before, but then Silva has taken a couple of gimmies at light heavyweight where he was looking far from undersized. Diaz is fighting Silva in Silva's world, at Silva's weight, and provides exactly the kind of fighter Silva wants. Aggressive, emotional, and completely oblivious to the effects of lateral movement and low kicks.

Now, with all that said, this is not a non-fight. If Silva fights dumb, he'll lose. If Silva's chin and legs are shot, he'll lose. If Silva can't knock Diaz out as Diaz walks forward onto punches, he might run out of gas and lose. Frankly, Nick Diaz has walked through the blows of some of the hardest hitters in mixed martial arts to get to the inside and start doing the voodoo that he does do so well, Anderson Silva is just another test of Diaz's chin and will.

Everything says Silva, but as the cliché goes, a fight is a fight. You can have all the right reasoning for a bet and win or lose the bet on something else entirely. Regardless of who wins, get back here the next morning and we'll talk about how they pulled it off.

Read Jack Slack's entire Path series:

The Path of Anderson Silva: The Cracks Begin to Show

The Path of Nick Diaz: Out-Boxed and Out-Gunned

The Path of Anderson Silva: Buckling The Crippler

The Path of Nick Diaz: Fighting the Hadouken Hitter

The Path of Anderson Silva: Fear the Knee Strike