Switzerland has been touted as a model for the UK, post-Brexit. It is an independent state that determines its own laws, controls its own borders, and through its status as an associated country has access to many key elements of EU membership – including the institution’s leading science and research programmes.

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But Switzerland’s recent experiences should sound a warning about the importance of cross-border ties, and about how future collaborations between the UK and the EU could be jeopardised if a no-deal Brexit materialises this autumn.

In 2014, the Swiss had their own referendum, which ultimately called on their government to impose stricter limits on the number of new entrants to their country. The intention was to curb the passage of low-skilled migrants into Switzerland, including free movement with the EU. However, the consequences have been far-reaching – and one unintended effect has been more than five years of isolation and regression for the country’s academic institutions and research groups.

Swiss researchers were immediately locked out of Horizon 2020, the EU research and innovation programme, as well as the prestigious European Research Council, and saw their status as key players in Europe evaporate. Unbeknownst to the government, the referendum result undermined seven bilateral arrangements with the EU, dating back as far as 2002.

A stand-off ensued as the Swiss thrashed around to find a compromise. But the effects were brutal. Swiss research institutions were marginalised, and their outreach efforts operated in a climate of uncertainty. According to Andreas Mortensen, the vice-president for research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, “The whole thing [the 2014 referendum] created a lack of assurance – we saw a large decrease in the number of European projects led by our researchers.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘If the proud research and innovation record of UK science is disrupted, then it will jeopardise all of our prosperity.’ Photograph: SeventyFour Images/Alamy Stock Photo

The long-term financial hit Swiss science has taken is still unclear. But the reputational damage has been significant. According to the Swiss research institute EPFL, levels of collaboration with the EU dropped by a factor of 10. Previously, Switzerland had ranked seventh for EU project coordinations, but after 2014 it plummeted to 24th place.

For UK science, which boasts an incredible history of world-leading research and discovery, there’s now a nervous wait. The fear is that a similar situation could manifest itself as Britain plots its exit from the EU. The country is, after all, one of the biggest recipients of research funding in the EU – claiming €8.8bn (£7.9bn) out of a total of €107bn during the funding round of 2007-2013. To abandon this would be catastrophic – and could put the UK on a Swiss-style path to scientific exile.

There is some recognition of the peril at hand, at least. The UK government has confirmed that, like its Swiss counterpart, it is prepared to step in to make up the shortfall in EU research funding. However, no money can compensate for the loss of invaluable collaborative networks. After 2014, Swiss researchers were not welcome at European research consortia, and the flow of EU-funded scientists into Switzerland stopped.

The UK government has said that it wishes to retain access to major pan-European research programmes. Yet the reality of doing so, while simultaneously restricting freedom of movement, does not align with current EU rules – and is something that would make even associate membership of EU research programmes difficult, and perhaps impossible, to attain. The financial hit alone of a no-deal Brexit would cost UK research more than €577m per year in lost opportunity to access very high-value grants – and that’s before the cost is counted of the thousands of jobs that are tied to these projects, and the trickle-down effects their loss would have on the wider economy.

So it’s clear that some perspective is needed as we approach the Brexit deadline. The warnings of hundreds of experts, and the cautionary tale of Switzerland must not be ignored. If the proud research and innovation record of UK science is disrupted, it will jeopardise all of our prosperity.

• Marja Makarow is a member of the strategic board of the University of Geneva and chair of Technology Academy Finland