What looked like the laughing stock of the NFL to start the season, the NFC East continues to surprise and climb the board.

In an effort to just get these out the door, I'm once again presenting the following charts without my observations at the bottom. Feel free to draw your own conclusions from the data and comment below. I apologize for doing this a second week in a row but this has been the week from hell for me.

I've been getting a number of questions in recent weeks about my methodology. Each section below has a paragraph explaining the charts below them. I hope this helps to clear up some confusion and makes it easier to follow. Should you have any qeustion about how a site derives their rankings, I list all the source I use for these charts at the bottom of this post.

Notable Quotes

At least they won’t have to worry about hosting any playoff games in San Diego after applying for permission to relocate to L.A. - Pro Football Talk

Congratulations to Antonio Gates for his 100th and 101st TD. The core belief system for the front office of this franchise needs to change. Games are won and lost at the line. Runs up the middle would be much more effective without guys nobody has ever heard of starting in front of Rivers. On that note, outside of Rivers, Gates, Woodhead, and Verrett, where is the fire, the competitiveness? There were at least 3 big plays that the team looked like they gave up on. Fans deserve better. - Reddit

The Chargers are now 2–2 in games decided by five or fewer points this season. Between the MASH unit posing as an offensive line and a defense that's allowing upward of 130 yards per game on the ground, it’s fair to wonder if San Diego will be able to find any easy wins. - Sports Illustrated

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Division Week 5 Average Week 6 Average Difference AFC East 12.170 11.932 0.238 AFC North 14.364 13.773 0.591 NFC West 14.159 14.580 -0.421 NFC East 16.557 15.523 1.034 AFC West 15.295 16.773 -1.478 NFC South 17.477 17.443 0.034 NFC North 17.807 17.477 0.330 AFC South 24.170 24.500 -0.330

Stock Rising

Team Week 5 Average Week 6 Average Difference CLE 26.500 22.136 4.364 CHI 28.182 24.000 4.182 PHI 18.591 14.773 3.818 TB 30.909 27.682 3.227 IND 17.273 14.909 2.364

Stock Falling

Team Week 5 Average Week 6 Average Difference KC 18.136 22.273 -4.137 DET 26.136 29.091 -2.955 BAL 17.136 19.955 -2.819 NO 24.182 26.727 -2.545 DAL 14.864 17.273 -2.409

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers.

I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.091 0.091 Packers 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.000 -0.182 Bengals 5 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.091 0.364 Broncos 4 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 4 4.546 -0.819 Falcons 3 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5.091 0.364 Cardinals 6 5 7 5 4 6 6 7 4 4 6 5.455 0.909 Panthers 7 8 5 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7.000 -0.545 Jets 11 7 8 11 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8.455 0.181 Steelers 9 12 13 9 12 10 13 10 8 12 9 10.636 1.000 Seahawks 8 13 12 7 10 11 9 13 15 9 10 10.636 -2.545 Giants 12 10 10 13 11 9 10 9 11 11 11 10.636 2.000 Bills 10 11 11 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 13 11.546 0.636 Vikings 16 9 15 10 9 15 12 14 13 13 14 12.727 0.455 Colts 13 14 9 12 14 16 14 12 12 14 12 12.909 2.637 Rams 17 15 18 15 15 12 15 19 16 15 15 15.636 -2.545 Chargers 14 19 14 17 19 19 16 17 14 16 16 16.455 -0.546 Eagles 15 18 17 20 16 24 18 15 17 17 17 17.636 4.728 Cowboys 18 16 16 18 22 14 22 16 23 18 18 18.273 -2.546 Redskins 21 17 20 19 17 21 17 18 21 19 21 19.182 0.545 Raiders 22 22 21 16 23 18 19 21 22 20 19 20.273 -0.364 Browns 20 23 22 21 18 17 20 23 18 21 22 20.455 5.636 Bears 24 21 19 24 20 23 24 20 19 24 20 21.636 6.091 Ravens 23 27 27 22 21 20 21 25 24 22 23 23.182 -4.091 Chiefs 19 28 23 27 25 26 25 27 20 23 24 24.273 -5.546 Buccaneers 28 25 25 23 27 25 26 24 26 27 26 25.636 5.182 Titans 27 20 24 26 29 28 23 28 29 25 25 25.818 -2.182 Dolphins 29 26 30 32 24 22 28 22 27 26 30 26.909 -0.091 49ers 25 24 28 30 26 27 29 26 28 28 28 27.182 1.364 Saints 26 29 26 25 28 31 30 30 25 29 27 27.818 -3.182 Texans 30 31 31 28 30 29 31 31 30 30 29 30.000 -2.454 Jaguars 32 32 29 29 32 30 27 29 31 31 32 30.364 -1.273 Lions 31 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 31 31.455 -3.273

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set.

For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.288 -0.098 Packers 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.426 0.040 Lions 31 30 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 31 0.656 -1.896 Bengals 5 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.668 -0.114 Broncos 4 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 4 0.782 0.337 Panthers 7 8 5 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 0.853 -0.135 Falcons 3 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 0.900 -0.088 Texans 30 31 31 28 30 29 31 31 30 30 29 0.954 -0.771 Cardinals 6 5 7 5 4 6 6 7 4 4 6 1.076 0.008 Giants 12 10 10 13 11 9 10 9 11 11 11 1.150 -0.622 Jets 11 7 8 11 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 1.305 0.424 Buccaneers 28 25 25 23 27 25 26 24 26 27 26 1.367 -0.099 Bills 10 11 11 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 13 1.373 -0.154 Jaguars 32 32 29 29 32 30 27 29 31 31 32 1.611 -0.855 Redskins 21 17 20 19 17 21 17 18 21 19 21 1.641 -0.537 49ers 25 24 28 30 26 27 29 26 28 28 28 1.696 -0.228 Steelers 9 12 13 9 12 10 13 10 8 12 9 1.720 -0.424 Colts 13 14 9 12 14 16 14 12 12 14 12 1.730 -0.501 Rams 17 15 18 15 15 12 15 19 16 15 15 1.772 -0.581 Chargers 14 19 14 17 19 19 16 17 14 16 16 1.876 -0.477 Browns 20 23 22 21 18 17 20 23 18 21 22 1.971 -0.807 Raiders 22 22 21 16 23 18 19 21 22 20 19 2.004 0.223 Saints 26 29 26 25 28 31 30 30 25 29 27 2.037 -0.348 Bears 24 21 19 24 20 23 24 20 19 24 20 2.057 -1.303 Ravens 23 27 27 22 21 20 21 25 24 22 23 2.249 0.228 Seahawks 8 13 12 7 10 11 9 13 15 9 10 2.307 1.311 Vikings 16 9 15 10 9 15 12 14 13 13 14 2.339 0.393 Eagles 15 18 17 20 16 24 18 15 17 17 17 2.422 0.702 Titans 27 20 24 26 29 28 23 28 29 25 25 2.657 0.161 Chiefs 19 28 23 27 25 26 25 27 20 23 24 2.733 0.067 Cowboys 18 16 16 18 22 14 22 16 23 18 18 2.766 -0.129 Dolphins 29 26 30 32 24 22 28 22 27 26 30 3.147 0.137

Objective Average

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1.364 0.636 Packers 3 2 2 3 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 2.727 0.546 Cardinals 2 5 3 14 3 2 1 6 6 6 2 4.546 0.181 Bengals 4 6 5 8 4 7 4 4 4 5 7 5.273 -0.637 Broncos 7 3 4 10 8 11 11 3 3 3 11 6.727 -1.363 Steelers 6 7 8 6 9 6 6 8 8 7 6 7.000 0.909 Falcons 12 15 7 1 7 3 9 5 5 9 8 7.364 -0.455 Jets 10 9 9 11 1 5 5 10 10 17 9 8.727 0.728 Seahawks 5 4 6 16 18 12 10 9 9 4 5 8.909 -0.182 Bills 9 12 10 12 12 9 7 11 11 11 10 10.364 0.000 Panthers 13 16 13 13 6 19 8 7 7 8 14 11.273 -0.455 Giants 8 17 12 5 13 8 12 12 12 14 16 11.727 0.364 Eagles 11 8 11 17 16 10 15 14 13 12 4 11.909 2.909 Vikings 19 11 16 20 15 18 14 16 14 16 19 16.182 -0.636 Cowboys 24 19 15 4 21 15 20 15 16 13 17 16.273 -2.273 Ravens 14 13 14 25 19 16 17 18 20 15 13 16.727 -1.545 Colts 21 10 17 15 23 23 27 13 15 10 12 16.909 2.091 Rams 15 20 20 9 20 14 21 17 19 21 20 17.818 -0.091 Redskins 16 27 21 7 10 13 13 24 21 29 23 18.546 2.545 Chargers 20 18 19 22 17 21 19 19 18 19 18 19.091 0.000 Chiefs 23 14 18 23 29 24 22 20 17 18 15 20.273 -2.727 Raiders 17 28 25 21 14 22 18 25 22 27 29 22.546 -0.455 Titans 18 26 29 27 11 17 16 30 26 31 21 22.909 1.091 Browns 22 24 24 24 28 20 24 21 24 26 25 23.818 3.091 Saints 25 23 26 31 26 26 25 26 28 24 22 25.636 -1.909 Bears 30 30 30 18 22 28 29 22 23 28 30 26.364 2.272 49ers 32 29 28 19 31 25 31 23 25 20 28 26.455 -0.455 Lions 27 22 23 28 30 27 32 28 29 22 26 26.727 -2.636 Dolphins 28 21 22 32 32 29 30 27 27 25 24 27.000 -0.273 Texans 31 25 27 26 24 30 28 29 30 23 27 27.273 -1.637 Buccaneers 29 31 32 29 27 32 23 31 31 30 32 29.727 1.273 Jaguars 26 32 31 30 25 31 26 32 32 32 31 29.818 -0.909

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH 538 FPI STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 0.481 -1.277 Steelers 6 7 8 6 9 6 6 8 8 7 6 1.045 -0.460 Packers 3 2 2 3 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 1.052 -1.843 Chargers 20 18 19 22 17 21 19 19 18 19 18 1.379 -1.087 Bengals 4 6 5 8 4 7 4 4 4 5 7 1.420 0.194 Bills 9 12 10 12 12 9 7 11 11 11 10 1.494 -1.469 Browns 22 24 24 24 28 20 24 21 24 26 25 2.124 0.394 Saints 25 23 26 31 26 26 25 26 28 24 22 2.307 -0.588 Texans 31 25 27 26 24 30 28 29 30 23 27 2.490 0.068 Vikings 19 11 16 20 15 18 14 16 14 16 19 2.552 -0.256 Buccaneers 29 31 32 29 27 32 23 31 31 30 32 2.597 0.597 Jaguars 26 32 31 30 25 31 26 32 32 32 31 2.622 0.347 Lions 27 22 23 28 30 27 32 28 29 22 26 3.107 -0.040 Giants 8 17 12 5 13 8 12 12 12 14 16 3.387 -0.757 Broncos 7 3 4 10 8 11 11 3 3 3 11 3.440 0.048 Ravens 14 13 14 25 19 16 17 18 20 15 13 3.467 -0.729 Cardinals 2 5 3 14 3 2 1 6 6 6 2 3.474 1.381 Dolphins 28 21 22 32 32 29 30 27 27 25 24 3.542 0.776 Eagles 11 8 11 17 16 10 15 14 13 12 4 3.579 -1.317 Rams 15 20 20 9 20 14 21 17 19 21 20 3.588 0.452 Falcons 12 15 7 1 7 3 9 5 5 9 8 3.773 0.169 Jets 10 9 9 11 1 5 5 10 10 17 9 3.887 -0.053 Panthers 13 16 13 13 6 19 8 7 7 8 14 4.092 -0.168 Bears 30 30 30 18 22 28 29 22 23 28 30 4.096 2.129 Chiefs 23 14 18 23 29 24 22 20 17 18 15 4.223 0.059 49ers 32 29 28 19 31 25 31 23 25 20 28 4.229 -2.067 Raiders 17 28 25 21 14 22 18 25 22 27 29 4.580 -0.215 Seahawks 5 4 6 16 18 12 10 9 9 4 5 4.582 -0.946 Cowboys 24 19 15 4 21 15 20 15 16 13 17 4.956 2.470 Colts 21 10 17 15 23 23 27 13 15 10 12 5.518 0.828 Titans 18 26 29 27 11 17 16 30 26 31 21 6.331 -0.261 Redskins 16 27 21 7 10 13 13 24 21 29 23 6.854 1.271

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Patriots 1.091 1.364 1.227 0.364 Packers 2.000 2.727 2.364 0.181 Bengals 3.091 5.273 4.182 -0.137 Cardinals 5.455 4.546 5.000 0.545 Broncos 4.546 6.727 5.636 -1.091 Falcons 5.091 7.364 6.227 -0.045 Jets 8.455 8.727 8.591 0.454 Steelers 10.636 7.000 8.818 0.955 Panthers 7.000 11.273 9.136 -0.500 Seahawks 10.636 8.909 9.773 -1.364 Bills 11.546 10.364 10.955 0.318 Giants 10.636 11.727 11.182 1.182 Vikings 12.727 16.182 14.455 -0.091 Eagles 17.636 11.909 14.773 3.818 Colts 12.909 16.909 14.909 2.364 Rams 15.636 17.818 16.727 -1.318 Cowboys 18.273 16.273 17.273 -2.409 Chargers 16.455 19.091 17.773 -0.273 Redskins 19.182 18.546 18.864 1.545 Ravens 23.182 16.727 19.955 -2.819 Raiders 20.273 22.546 21.409 -0.409 Browns 20.455 23.818 22.136 4.364 Chiefs 24.273 20.273 22.273 -4.137 Bears 21.636 26.364 24.000 4.182 Titans 25.818 22.909 24.364 -0.546 Saints 27.818 25.636 26.727 -2.545 49ers 27.182 26.455 26.818 0.455 Dolphins 26.909 27.000 26.955 -0.182 Buccaneers 25.636 29.727 27.682 3.227 Texans 30.000 27.273 28.636 -2.045 Lions 31.455 26.727 29.091 -2.955 Jaguars 30.364 29.818 30.091 -1.091

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Patriots 1.091 1.364 0.419 -0.918 Packers 2.000 2.727 0.881 -1.308 Bills 11.546 10.364 1.552 -0.974 Bengals 3.091 5.273 1.556 0.370 Chargers 16.455 19.091 2.109 -0.779 Jaguars 30.364 29.818 2.193 -0.181 Steelers 10.636 7.000 2.309 -0.318 Texans 30.000 27.273 2.327 0.018 Saints 27.818 25.636 2.434 -0.257 Giants 10.636 11.727 2.587 -0.612 Cardinals 5.455 4.546 2.611 0.759 Browns 20.455 23.818 2.651 0.301 Broncos 4.546 6.727 2.723 0.169 Jets 8.455 8.727 2.902 0.018 Buccaneers 25.636 29.727 2.914 1.158 Falcons 5.091 7.364 2.969 0.228 Vikings 12.727 16.182 2.996 0.307 Rams 15.636 17.818 3.033 -0.581 49ers 27.182 26.455 3.242 -1.584 Lions 31.455 26.727 3.260 -0.260 Dolphins 26.909 27.000 3.350 0.459 Panthers 7.000 11.273 3.647 -0.138 Raiders 20.273 22.546 3.713 -0.065 Seahawks 10.636 8.909 3.729 -0.256 Bears 21.636 26.364 4.011 1.221 Chiefs 24.273 20.273 4.081 0.535 Cowboys 18.273 16.273 4.136 1.303 Eagles 17.636 11.909 4.188 -1.075 Ravens 23.182 16.727 4.353 0.524 Colts 12.909 16.909 4.552 0.493 Redskins 19.182 18.546 4.994 0.702 Titans 25.818 22.909 5.068 0.080

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Bears 21.636 26.364 4.727 3.818 Panthers 7.000 11.273 4.273 -0.091 Buccaneers 25.636 29.727 4.091 3.909 Colts 12.909 16.909 4.000 0.545 Vikings 12.727 16.182 3.455 1.091 Browns 20.455 23.818 3.364 2.546 Chargers 16.455 19.091 2.636 -0.546 Falcons 5.091 7.364 2.273 0.818 Raiders 20.273 22.546 2.273 0.091 Bengals 3.091 5.273 2.182 1.000 Broncos 4.546 6.727 2.182 0.546 Rams 15.636 17.818 2.182 -2.454 Giants 10.636 11.727 1.091 1.637 Packers 2.000 2.727 0.727 -0.728 Jets 8.455 8.727 0.273 -0.545 Patriots 1.091 1.364 0.273 -0.545 Dolphins 26.909 27.000 0.091 0.182 Jaguars 30.364 29.818 -0.545 -0.363 Redskins 19.182 18.546 -0.636 -2.000 49ers 27.182 26.455 -0.727 1.819 Cardinals 5.455 4.546 -0.909 0.727 Bills 11.546 10.364 -1.182 0.636 Seahawks 10.636 8.909 -1.727 -2.363 Cowboys 18.273 16.273 -2.000 -0.273 Saints 27.818 25.636 -2.182 -1.273 Texans 30.000 27.273 -2.727 -0.818 Titans 25.818 22.909 -2.909 -3.273 Steelers 10.636 7.000 -3.636 0.091 Chiefs 24.273 20.273 -4.000 -2.818 Lions 31.455 26.727 -4.727 -0.636 Eagles 17.636 11.909 -5.727 1.818 Ravens 23.182 16.727 -6.455 -2.546

Observations:

[ Changeme ]

Sources