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A new poll from Franklin & Marshall College shows Democrat Tom Wolf's lead over Repubilcan Gov. Tom Corbett crept up slightly over the past couple of months.

(File photo PennLive)

With 67 days to the gubernatorial election, a poll released Thursday painted a slightly higher peak on the hill Gov. Tom Corbett must climb to overtake Democratic challenger Tom Wolf.

Wolf leads the race by 25 points in the poll, completed by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, for which 520 registered voters were interviewed between Aug. 18-25.

If the election had been held on the day the voters took the poll, Wolf would've taken 49 percent of the vote to Corbett's 24 percent, with 25 percent of voters undecided, according to the poll. View the entire poll at the bottom of this entry.

The latest round of polling from F&M showed little change over the past few months between the candidates for Pennsylvania governor, as shown below:

"If the election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?"

The last F&M poll, conducted in June, showed Wolf being the choice of 47 percent of respondents, compared with 25 percent saying they would vote for Corbett and 27 percent who were undecided.

Poll director G. Terry Madonna said it makes sense that, despite an aggressive ad campaign from Corbett's camp over the past couple months, the numbers have remained about the same.

"The answer is pretty clear now," he said. "The voters have made a decision about Corbett and he hasn't been able to change the narrative."

Corbett doesn't have any big wins to take to the voters on issues such as education — voters' top-rated issue and one that gained importance over the past two months — and property taxes, Madonna said.

"What has changed since June?" Madonna asked. "Has Tom Corbett gotten his agenda? No... This race is where it was in June because Corbett hasn't been able to change the way voters feel about him."

But Madonna said he has learned over decades in the business that his polls don't decide elections. Voters do.

"What I will say is he faces an uphill challenge the likes of which no incumbent governor [in Pennsylvania] in modern history has ever faced," Madonna said.

Negative ads show negative results

Wolf has had no major gaffes and hasn't been seriously hurt by Corbett's attacks, Madonna said.

"The negative commercials did not work, just as they didn't work for [Rob] McCord and Allison Schwartz in the Democratic primary," he said. "Those actually helped Wolf."

While Corbett's campaign has hammered Wolf since the last poll in June, Corbett's favorability fell from 27 percent as measured by the June poll to 24 percent in the most recent poll. His unfavorability increased from 49 to 56 percent.

For the same period, Wolf's favorability increased from 35 to 37 percent. However, his unfavorability also increased, from 12 to 17 percent.

Tuned in and turned off

More than 80 percent of respondents said they've seen commercials for the candidates.

Among 371 people who watched commercials about Corbett, the top takeaway 18 percent of them had about the ad was that it was negative and attacking Wolf.

Second, they felt the ads were "dishonest, unbelievable, inaccurate," according to the poll.

And the third thing they remembered were the ads being negative in general and involving mudslinging and name-calling.

Of the 408 voters who had seen ads about Wolf, 15 percent said they most remembered a Corbett ad saying Wolf moved his business to Delaware to avoid taxes.

Coming in second and third were Wolf's business background and his proposal to tax companies that drill for the state's natural gas deposits.

Wolf supporter John Sysak, a registered Democrat from Luzerne County, was among the poll respondents troubled by the ads.

"The governor should come out with ads and say, 'Here's what I did for your sake,' but that's not what he's doing," Sysak said. "He's telling lies about Wolf."

Job approval falling

Corbett's job approval also fell slightly over the two months, with the percentage of people who believe he's doing an excellent or good job falling from 26 to 24 percent. His lowest combined excellent and good rating was 16 percent, last August.

The percentage of voters who believe he's doing a fair job stayed steady at 39 percent since June, while those who said he was doing a poor job increased from 31 percent to 33 percent.

The top issues cited for his negative job ratings were education cuts, Corbett's decision not to impose a severance tax on gas-drilling companies, and economic issues.

Republican respondent Kenneth Holt of Delaware County said property tax is his primary concern.

While he doesn't think Corbett has "done too much" to address increasing school taxes, he said he trusts a conservative to handle the issue more than he trusts a Democrat.

Holt said he was one of the 26 percent of respondents who feel Corbett has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while 64 percent said it's time for a change.

Among the 66 percent of voters who said they were unsure how they would vote, 28 percent said they were leaning toward Wolf and 13 percent said they were leaning toward Corbett.

With about two months remaining to change some minds, Corbett needs to improve how voters – both within and outside the GOP – perceive him, Madonna said.

"He has not improved his job performance and he has a Republican problem," Madonna said.

Corbett's campaign for pension reform hasn't resonated with enough voters despite his travels around the state and trying to link it to property tax, Madonna said.

The governor could focus on the $2.3 billion transportation bill he signed into law, capitalizing on the infrastructure that'll be improved as a result, Madonna said.

"I'm stunned that he hasn't talked about roads and bridges," he said.

Corbett also needs to find a way to turn voters away from Wolf; none of the negative angles that the Corbett campaign has pursued, such as painting him as a multi-millionaire who avoids paying taxes, have been fruitful, Madonna said.

Wolf campaign spokesman Jeff Sheridan said Wolf has traveled across the state and met with workers, business owners, and families who are "ready for a fresh start" after "four years of Governor Corbett's failures..."

Corbett campaign spokesman Chris Pack said the campaign is taking the poll "with a grain of salt," saying the poll is skewed toward Democrats and appears to be an outlier because two other recent polls showed the race tightening.

"Regardless, the only poll that will matter is on Election Day, when we are confident Pennsylvanians will re-elect Tom Corbett and Jim Cawley for a second term," he said.

Corresponding to the state's voter registration numbers, the voter registration of respondents in the F&M poll was 37 percent registered Republican, 50 percent Democrat, 12 percent independent and 1 percent other.

Of the respondents, 80 percent said they were certain to vote.

The sample error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.