Paul Brandus

Opinion columnist

We knew, at some point, that it would come to this. President Donald Trump, who has lied to the American people about every facet of his life — his education, his family, his mistresses, his money — is now asking us to believe him about a potential matter of life and death: the coronavirus.

Trump says he's on top of it. But this time, it’s not his life he’s talking about, it’s ours. Should we — and can we — believe him? I hope so. We’re all Americans after all, and while I’m not a Trump fan, he’s our president, and I wish him well in facing down this common threat. If he is able to contain it, with limited damage in terms of lives lost and economic disruption, I’ll be the first to say thanks and give praise.

Yet true to form, Trump has said things that are either misleading or flat out wrong. For example, he has compared coronavirus to the flu and asked if a flu vaccine could be used to fight coronavirus. He has also said that his "hunch" is that the World Health Organization is wrong about the coronavirus mortality rate being3.4% (over 30 times deadlier than the .1% death rate for those who get the common flu).

Disturbances to daily life are growing

Voluntary or involuntary home quarantines could become more common as the coronavirus spreads. The problem here is that tens of millions of Americans lack paid sick leave. What a choice: go to work sick and spread germs (but get paid), or take time off (without pay) to get better. Did you know that we’re one of only two developed nations in the world (South Korea is the other) that do not guarantee paid leave for personal illness?

Tens of millions of Americans also live paycheck to paycheck, and the Census Bureau says about 13 million work two or more jobs. If sick workers are encouraged or told to stay home amid growing coronavirus fears, what will they do? And what if schools and businesses shut down, as we saw in China and Japan and are beginning to see in Washington state?

Then there’s the problem of medical costs for those people just getting by. The Federal Reserve estimates that nearly 40% of Americans do not have $400 on hand to pay for an emergency. Getting tested for coronavirus is expensive, even if you turn out not to have it. If you are infected, there are travel and quarantine costs and missing work. Frank Wucinski got stuck with a $3,918 tab after being evacuated from China with his three-year-old daughter and quarantined by the U.S. government in California. “When the bills showed up,” he told The New York Times, “it was just a pit in my stomach, like, ‘How do I pay for this?’”

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If the virus spreads across the United States in the coming weeks and even months, there could be many people asking such questions. Making the situation worse, the number of uninsured Americans is rising: The Census Bureau notes that in 2018, for example, 27.5 million people “did not have health insurance at any point during the year,” an increase of nearly 2 million people from the year before.

This is a legitimate question for Trump as he campaigns for re-election on his largely baseless claim that this may be “the greatest economy in the history of our country.” If it’s so great, why can’t 40% of Americans handle a $400 expense? And why are so many losing health coverage?

Stock market roller coaster of fear, uncertainty

Fact is, for all of the president’s bluster, the economy grew at a modest 2.1% rate in the 4th quarter of last year — and that was before coronavirus fears began to ramp up. What might happen now?

The stock market has been on a roller coaster — buckling and bouncing back and buckling again under the weight of fear and uncertainty. Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, tells me that the U.S. economy could begin to shrink this month, thanks first and foremost to a drop in exports, along with supply chain disruptions, a hit to manufacturing and more.

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Companies are freezing hiring, canceling sporting events and concerts, and pulling out of gatherings like SXSW. Individuals are also beginning to take precautions — canceling flights, avoiding restaurants, working from home. Economists call this “aversion behavior,” and given the fact that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, any pullback is not to be taken lightly. In fact, Hunter warns, the most likely scenario for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 is 0.9%.

A recession is officially defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. If Hunter’s forecast is accurate, we’re not far off. Going forward, no one knows how bad coronavirus could be, both in human and economic terms. Let’s wish our president and other officials well as they deal with it. Speaking truthfully about the medical and financial predicaments millions of Americans could face, and trying to do something about them, is a good place to start.

Paul Brandus, founder and White House bureau chief of West Wing Reports, is the author of "Under This Roof: The White House and the Presidency" and a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. Follow him on Twitter: @WestWingReport