Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

Background: The overwhelming majority of the time minor league promotions fall into two different categories: non-aggressive and aggressive. And then there’s the approach that the Cubs took with Ademan, which deserves an entirely different category. After looking like a capable, competent – but nowhere close to dominant – bat in the Dominican Summer League two years ago, the 5-foot11, 160-pound shortstop jumped all the way up to the Northwest League as an 18-year-old. And it was clearly the right call. In 39 games with the Eugene Emeralds, the lefty-swinging middle infielder slugged .286/.365/.466 with nine doubles, four triples, and four homeruns. Undeterred, the club bumped him up to South Bend for the remainder of the year, where the production was less-than-stellar: he batted .244/.269/.378. Overall, Ademan hit an aggregate .267/.324/.427 with 15 doubles, five triples, and seven homeruns. He also swiped 14 bags in 22 attempts. His production last season, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 11% – the exact same mark that he tallied the previous year.

Projection: He flashed significantly more power last season, which is surprising given the Dominican Summer League’s offensive inflating atmosphere. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, there were only four 18-year-old hitters that posted a 130 wRC+ or better in the Northwest League (min. 150 PA): Edinson Rincon, Franklin Barreto, Josh Vitters, and Matthew Sulentic.

Obviously it’s not a stellar group of comparisons sans Barreto. But consider the following:

Player PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Aramis Ademan 183 7.70% 16.40% 0.180 135 Franklin Barreto 328 7.90% 19.50% 0.170 141

Barreto, a long time personal favorite of mine, eventually blossomed into a top prospect. And Ademan seems to be on the same path. The Cubs’ youngster offers up an average eye at the plate, strong contact skills, above-average speed, 15- to 20-homerun potential, and his defense graded out as average.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

Background: The recipient of a hefty bonus in the summer of 2015, the Cubs and Albertos came to a pact worth $1.5 million; a nice little payout for a 16-year-old. But Albertos’ highly anticipated debut was limited to just one start and four innings before succumbing to forearm tenderness two years ago. Finally healthy last season, though, it took just two starts in the Arizona Summer League before the front office’s player development engine decided to aggressively – a massive understatement, by the way – push him straight up to the Northwest League. And just like that, he dominated. In eight starts with the Eugene Emeralds, the 6-foot-1, 185-pound right-hander fanned 42 against just 14 walks in 34.2 innings of work. Again, he was just 18-years-old.

Projection: Not surprising, but Albertos turned in back-to-back clunkers in his second and third appearances with the Emeralds; he allowed six earned runs in 6.2 innings. After that, though, he was pure filth: 23.0 innings, 30 strikeouts, seven walks, and a sparkling 1.96 ERA. Let’s take a quick look at how his overall production in short-season ball stacks up, historically speaking:

Since 2006, only three 18-year-old pitchers have tossed 30 innings in the Northwest League with a 28% or better strikeout percentage: Jose Albertos, David Perez, and Tony Butler.

Perez looked like a burgeoning top prospect before injuries ravaged his career. And Butler never made it passed Low Class A.

Similarly to incoming prep prospects, it’s going to be a wait-and-see approach. But Albertos could be the talk of the minors this time in 2018.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Originally picked out of Miami-Dade College in the second round of the 2013 draft, 65th overall, Caratini continued to do what he does best: bounce between a couple defensive positions and, well, hit. In 83 games with the Iowa Cubs of the Pacific Coast League, the switch-hitting part-time catcher/part-time first baseman turned in his finest professional season to date, slugging .342/.393/.558 with 27 doubles, three triples, and 10 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a staggering 42%. Caratini also got an extended look in the big leagues as well, hitting .254/.333/.356 in 66 plate appearances. For his minor league career, the 6-foot-1, 215-pound prospect owns a .289/.369/.426 minor league triple-slash line.

Projection: Always skeptical of his defensive value, here’s what I wrote in the 2016 Handbook:

“Caratini has hit well enough against older competition over the past two seasons without truly dominating. And for the most part the skills are average across the board – patience, hit tool, power, etc… Obviously, the bat plays much better behind the plate, but that would also require him to – you know – field the position, unfortunately.”

And here’s what I wrote when I ranked Caratini as the club’s 15th best prospect in last year’s Handbook:

“Even with the offensive outburst last season, Caratini still profiles as an above-average backup. His surge in patience at the plate two years ago proved it was a repeatable skill. The hit tool is solid, but his lack of power limits his ceiling. Defensively, he’ll never be confused with Johnny Bench. Or anyone else that can control the running game.”

First, let’s take a look at his offensive ability. Consider the following:

It’s a solid collection of hitters: Choo and Quentin are well above-average big league hitters. Gyorko, d’Arnaud, and Callaspo hovered around the league average mark. And the remaining three – Wood, Wheeler, and LaRoche – were busts.

Caratini looks like a league average big league hitter. His overall production has increased in each of his past two seasons, both of which were spent in the minors’ final two stops. The eye is average. I’m not ready to buy into the power surge. But the hit tool should give him more than a few looks.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

4. Alex Lange, RHP

Background: Fun Fact: Between 2011 and 2016, just 14 collegiate pitchers won at least 12 games without taking a loss in a season – Alex Lange, Dylan Baker, Blake Fox, Justin Garza, Steven Kane, Kade McClure, Ross Mitchell, Chris Murphy, Tyler Ray, Kelvin Rivas, Kyle Simonds, Dylan Slayton, and Grady Wood. Lange, of course, accomplished that feat as a true freshman. Standing a sturdy, well-built 6-foot-3 and 199 pounds, the LSU workhorse was nearly unhittable for the Tigers during his first collegiate season. He threw a team-leading 114.0 innings of work, averaging 10.34 strikeouts and 3.63 walks every nine innings to go along with an impeccable 1.97 ERA. That production earned him a litany of awards and recognitions, including:

National Freshman Pitcher of the Year (Collegiate Baseball and the NCBWA)

First-Team All-American (Collegiate Baseball, Baseball America, NCBWA, and Perfect Game)

Second-Team All-American (ABCA, D1 Baseball)

First-Team Freshman All-American (Collegiate Baseball, NCBWA, Baseball America)

First-Team All-SEC

SEC Freshman of the Year

Corbett Award Winner

And with all the hype in the world surrounding the hard-throwing right-hander heading into his sophomore season, Lange’s production backed up a bit. In 111.2 innings of work, Lange’s walk rate jumped from 3.63 BB/9 to 3.95 BB/9 and he coughed up gopher balls at an extraordinary rate, nearly one every per nine innings. Team USA still called his name, though. And Lange, who would eventually be named on the 2016 NCAA Regional All-Tournament Team, would throw another nine innings, fanning seven and walking just one while surrendering just a pair of hits. Last season, the ferocious Tiger turned in arguably his finest season to date: Lange set career bests in innings (124.1), strikeouts (150), strikeout rate (10.86 K/9), and walk rate (3.47 BB/9). Chicago grabbed Lange at the end of the first round last June, 30th overall, and limited him to just 9.1 innings in the Northwest League.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Lange heading into the draft last season:

“Good, sometimes great, but Lange isn’t without his red flags either. The control has been…a bit questionable at times in the past, though it has taken a noticeable step forward in 2017. But can he repeat it in the professional ranks? His homerun rate, too, has been a constant concern. He coughed up 12 homeruns in 111.2 innings of work two years ago, and he’s allowed seven long balls in 83.1 innings this seasons. That’s an awful lot of dingers surrendered by a top prospect.

In fact, there’s been only other notable college prospect between 2011 and 2016 to post a homerun rate north of 0.80 HR/9 and a K-rate above 10.0 K/9: Christopher Beck, a 2012 second round pick of the White Sox who’s failed at making a mark in the big leagues. With that being said, Lange looks like a middle-of-the-rotation caliber arm, maybe peaking as a good #3 in a few years, particularly if his uptick in control is repeatable.”

One final note: the Cubs have really struggled in developing pitching, particularly former collegiate arms. So it’ll be interesting to see how this works out.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

5. Trevor Clifton, RHP

Background: One of the more intriguing arms in the Cubs’ farm system heading into 2017. Clifton’s season, however, was simply of tale of two stories. A recipient of a hefty six-figure bonus as a 12th round pick out of Heritage High School in 2013, Clifton looked quite comfortable in the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, through his first 11 starts; he tallied a respectably solid 51-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.52 ERA and a 3.34 FIP through his first 60.2 innings of work. But after that, though, Clifton’s opponents somehow transitioned into a collective second-coming of Babe Ruth; hitters slugged .360/.439/.552 against him over his final 39.2 innings as he allowed a whopping 41 earned runs. The 6-foot-1, 170-pound right-handed finished the year with 100.1 innings, averaging 7.7 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings. He totaled a 5.20 ERA, a 4.05 FIP, a 4.34 FIP, and a 5.62 DRA (Deserved Run Average). He owns a career 387-to-171 strikeout-to-walk rate in 399.1 minor league innings.

Projection: Another one of the organization’s arms that I’ve spoken highly about throughout the years. Here’s what I wrote about Clifton in the 2016 Handbook:

“Here’s the thing about long shots, or in this case late round over-slot signings – sometimes they pay off. And less than 200 innings under his professional belt, Clifton’s making an awful lot of noise as an up-and-comer in the Chicago system; so much so, in fact, that he could have as much potential as any hurler in the organization’s farm system. His strikeout rate is creeping up while he’s slowly improving his control/command. He’s big and projectable – with plenty of gas left in the projection tank. And only two other qualified starters under the age of 21 in the Midwest League last season missed more bats (Justus Sheffield and Grant Holmes, a pair of high round draft picks). Clifton has a chance to be an impact arm at the big league level. Watch out.”

Through the first half of his 2017 season Clifton continued to perform well, though he never took that expected step forward. Let’s do a few quick studies. First, let’s reevaluate his production in High Class A two years ago. Consider the following:

Since 2006, there were only three 21-year-old pitchers that posted a strikeout percentage of at least 25% and a walk percentage between 7-9% in the Carolina League (min. 75 IP): Trevor Clifton, Kyle Zimmer, and Yordano Ventura.

Before injuries ravaged his ceiling, Zimmer was one of top pitching prospects in baseball (and a long time personal favorite of mine). And, obviously, Ventura, whose life was tragically cut short, was on the precipice of stardom. That’s some pretty lofty company. Now let’s take a look at his production in the Southern League – except we’re only going to focus on his first half production. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were only six 22-year-old pitchers that posted a 19-21% strikeout percentage and a 9-11% walk percentage in the Southern League (min. 50 IP): Camilo Vazquez, James Parr, Jarrod Parker, Scott Diamond, Stephen Landazuri, and Travis Chick.

There’s two viable big league arms among the bunch: Parker, who tallied 3.6 fWAR in 2012, and Diamond, who has one season in which he was a better-than-average starter for the Twins. Clifton still looks like a potential big league starter, though he’s been downgraded to a #4/#5-type arm with risk. Expect a bit of a bounce back season in 2018. I would expect Clifton to have a bounce back year in 2018, just solely based on his second half numbers regressing back towards his career norms.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2018

6. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP

Background: Fun Fact: De La Cruz’s career high in work load occurred all the way back in 2014 when he tossed 75.0 innings as a 19-year-old – in the Dominican Summer League. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound projectable right-hander followed that showing up in the Dominican Summer League with a successful leap straight into the Northwest League the following year, throwing 73.0 innings with an impeccable 73-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Since then, though, the former shortstop-turned-glimpsing-ace has missed the majority of the last two years. A sore forearm limited him to just 39.0 innings in 2016. And what’s being tabbed as a tender throwing arm followed by a late-season pectoral issues limited the promising righty to just 56.2 innings in 2017. The injuries also forced him from appearing in the Arizona Fall League as well. De La Cruz posted an aggregate 48-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 3.34 ERA in 2017. For his career, he’s averaging 8.8 strikeouts and just 2.3 walks per nine innings.

Projection: I’ve long been an admired of the young hurler. Here’s what I wrote about him in the 2016 Handbook:

“An absolute force to be reckoned with at various points last season. De La Cruz twirled a six-inning, nine punch out, zero walk performance against the Hillsboro Hops in early July and had an even better showing in late August; he tossed a season-high seven innings against the Spokane Indians, fanning 13, walking one, and giving up one single solitary base knock. Again, like Justin Steele and Carson Sands, the sample size is incredibly limited, but there’s an awful lot to like here.”

And I followed that up with this in last year’s edition when I ranked him as the club’s seventh best prospect:

“Well, the sample size is still incredibly limited, but he has continued to sparkle at various points. With that being said, I’m once again declaring him as one of the top breakout prospects for 2017.”

So, he not only failed to churn out a breakout season last year, but those flashes of dominance became fewer and fewer as well. Of his 12 appearances with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans in the Carolina League, De La Cruz only had three games in which he struck out more hitters than innings pitched.

So how does his production in the High Class A stack up against his peers? Consider the following:

There’s a lot of big league talent among the group – though it’s not exactly the type of pitching to build a rotation around. He likely gets a pass for the injury-marred campaign. So let’s take a look at his breakout performance in the Northwest League two years ago:

Between 2006 and 2015, only two pitchers posted a strikeout percentage of at least 24% and a walk rate below 6.5% in the Northwest League (min. 50 IP): De La Cruz and Robbie Ross Jr.

As much as it pains me, but De La Cruz looks like one of the more overrated arms in the minor leagues. The 2018 season is – easily – the most important, or detrimental, in his career. If he doesn’t take a step forward – or can’t stay healthy – he’s likely staring down a shift to the bullpen.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019

7. Brendon Little, LHP

Background: Something you don’t see every day: Little tossed just four innings as a true freshman at the University of North Carolina, but he turned enough heads to earn a trip to the Cape Cod League. And the 6-foot-1, 195-pound southpaw turned in a dynamic campaign for the Bourne Braves. Working as a full time reliever, Little recorded a stellar 29-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 innings of work. That success – as well as the recognition that came with it – prompted the southpaw to transfer from UNC to the State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota. And to a shock of no one, Little quickly and efficiently handled the inferior JuCo competition. He tossed 85.1 innings last season for the Manatees, averaging 14 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. The Cubs tagged Little at the end of the first round, 27th overall, and sent him to the Northwest League for a brief debut. He finished with a mediocre, somewhat concerning 12-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16.1 innings with Eugene.

Projection: With respect to his collegiate production, there’s very little useful data. It’s basically limited to just his work in the Cape Cod League. But he was relegated to a full time relief role, never being asked to turn over a lineup multiple times. There’s likely going to be growing pains for him, especially early next season. Per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach until Little can accumulate some more meaningful innings.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Fun Fact: Zagunis has posted at least a 123 wRC+ mark at each of his minor league stops in which he’s made at 60 plate appearances. The last remaining member of the Cubs’ wave of collegiate bashers to make their way up to the big leagues, Zagunis, of course, followed in the footsteps of Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ in his debut in Chicago. A third round pick out of Virginia Tech in 2014, Zagunis spent the majority of last season squaring off against the PCL competition. In 97 games with the Iowa Cubs, the 6-foot, 205-pound corner outfielder slugged .267/.404/.455 with 21 doubles, one triple, and 13 homeruns. He also went 4-for-7 in the stolen base department as well. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 30%. For his career, Zagunis owns an impressive .277/.402/.439 triple-slash line, belting out 86 doubles, 14 triples, and 33 homeruns in 370 MiLB games.

Projection: Always a personal favorite of mine, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. Here’s what I wrote about Zagunis heading into the 2014 draft:

“English Field [Virginia Tech’s home park] tends to inflate offensive numbers, but the tools are strong across the board. Solid-average power, above-average hit tool, good speed for a catcher, strong eye at the plate, and solid contact skills. The lone red flag – and it’s pretty glaring at this point – is his inability to control the [running] game. He has nabbed just 20% of would-be base stealer [so far in 2014].

His overall skill set is fairly similar to Zane Evans, the Georgia Tech backstop taken in the fourth round last year by the Royals, though Zagunis has a higher ceiling.

Overall, the Hokie catcher looks like a solid bet to develop into a league average everyday player with a peak around .270/.340/.400 with double-digit homeruns and stolen bases.”

I followed that up with this in the 2016 Handbook:

“The plate discipline has proven to be an elite skill; he’s walked in over 15% of his career plate appearances. The power is solid-average, as is the hit tool. And the club wisely moved him away from behind the plate. Simply put, Zagunis is one of the better prospects you’ve never heard about. I could easily see him carving out a 10-year career with average offensive production north of 100 wRC+.”

And, finally, here’s what I wrote in last year’s tome:

“At this point, I feel like I’m just going to continue to write the same thing over. And over. And over. And over. Zagunis looks like a very solid, safe, league average starter – though I’m assuming that won’t be coming in the Cubs’ crowded outfield.”

There’s really nothing else to write about his particular skill set, because it remains that same, so let’s take a look at his production in the Pacific Coast League last season. Consider the following:

Overall, it’s not a terribly exciting list of prospects. But the Zagunis isn’t too far off from Stephen Piscotty. There’s a lot of big league value in Zagunis’ bat. Hopefully he gets the chance to prove it before too long.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

9. Charcer Burks, OF

Background: A ninth round pick out of William B. Travis High School in 2013, Burks, the 258th overall selection that year, has quietly developed into a sabermetric darling over the past couple of years. The 6-foot, 170-pound outfielder spent the entirety of 2017 with the Tennessee Smokies in the Southern League, hitting a solid .270/.370/.395 with 21 doubles, three triples, and 10 homeruns. He also swiped 16 bags, though it took an alarming 28 total attempts. Burks’ overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 25%, the second best mark on his professional resume. For his career, Burks is sporting a decent .265/.359/.381 triple-slash line, belting out 84 doubles, 15 triples, and 25 homeruns to go along with 86 stolen bases.

Projection: Again, he’s developed – very quietly – into a sabermetric darling. Burks does everything relatively well: he walks often, flashes average power, runs a bit (even if it’s a not efficiently), can man all three outfield positions, and has generally been an average or better defensive glove. Plus, his production has improved in each of the past two seasons. He’s not quite starting material, but there’s definite big league value here as a fourth outfielder/spot-starter option. Finally, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only four 22-year-old hitters posted a 120- to -130 wRC+ mark with a double-digit walk rate in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): Dustin Ackley, Logan Watkins, Michael Reed, and Xavier Paul. All of them are backup options.

Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

10. Adbert Alzolay, RHP

Background: The hard-throwing right-hander continued his roller coaster trek through the development ladder. Fortunately for all parties involved, 2017 was a peak, not a valley for the Venezuela native. Alzolay burst onto the scene with an absurd showing in the foreign rookie league back in 2013; he posted a 61-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 67.0 innings of work and managed to cough up just eight earned runs, good enough for a 1.07 ERA. The organization pushed him stateside the following year. And after one brief three-inning performance in the Northwest League, they bumped him down to a move age-appropriate level, the Arizona Summer League. Let’s just say he was pretty awful – at least artificially speaking. In 24.1 innings in the rookie league, Alzolay tallied an 8.51 ERA. Fast forward another year, to 2015, and the 6-foot, 179-pound right-hander made it look easy in a return to the Northwest League: 53.0 innings, 49 K, 15 BB, and a 2.04 ERA. Chicago bumped him up to the Midwest League, but his strikeout rate declined to a career worst 6.1 K/9.

And that brings us to 2017.

Hailing from Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela, Alzolay made 22 starts between the Carolina and Southern Leagues, throwing 114.1 innings with 108 strikeouts and just 34 walks. He finished the year with a 2.99 ERA and a 3.36 FIP.

Projection: Good but not particularly dominant last season. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s the list of 22-year-old pitchers that owned a 23-25% strikeout percentage and a walk rate below 7% in the Carolina League (min. 75 IP): Cody Anderson, Glenn Sparkman, Jhonny Nunez, and Matt Barnes.

Sparkman and Nunez own a little big league experience. Anderson was a serviceable backend starter for the Indians before missing 2017 with an elbow injury. And Barnes, a failed top starting pitching prospect, turned into a valuable reliever for the Red Sox. The Anderson/Barnes ceiling seems very reasonable for Alzolay, but there’s some added risk given his up-and-down production tendencies.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.