The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a trendy team to try and make the playoffs last year, with Jameis Winston entering his third season and a whole host of offensive weapons around him. The team's enthusiastic performance on "Hard Knocks" only encouraged the hype, and Tampa didn't come close to living up.

Give the defense the lion's share of the blame, but Winston deserves some heat too. He was not great during the first half of the season, right up until he was rested/benched with a shoulder injury. Quietly, he put up some nice numbers down the stretch. That will need to be the norm in 2018 if the Bucs want to bounce back and if Winston wants to justify a mega-deal from the franchise that drafted him.

The defense was terrible last year too, ranking dead last in DVOA. Credit GM Jason Lichte for going out and making big moves to improve the front seven. He added Jason Pierre-Paul via trade, Vinny Curry via free agency and Vita Vea via (say that three times fast) the draft.

Vegas doesn't appear to believe quiet yet, because their 2018 NFL win total is set at 6.5 games.

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Why They'll Go Over

Winston was a hot name to potentially put up a really big season last year and it didn't come close to happening. Buried in the disappointing season are stats that show he might be ready to make a leap: he actually improved his yards/game, yards/attempt, completion percentage, quarterback rating and lowered his interception percentage. Extrapolate out his season to 16 games and he had a pretty good year. Extrapolate his final five games -- 67.2 percent completions, 317 yards/game, 8.8 yards/attempt, nine touchdowns, five interceptions -- over a full season and Jameis would have a MONSTER season. It's not that simple, obviously, but a big year could be in the cards. Mike Evans was a disappointment and he caught 71 passes for 1,001 yards. Ronald Jones is a major sleeper for OROY considering the workload he should see in this backfield. DeSean Jackson has to be better, but O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate round out a sick group of weapons for Winston. The defense has to be better with the personnel on hand; the defensive line went from a major weakness to a major strength when you add JPP, Curry and Vea to Gerald McCoy and Noah Spence. Those guys should let Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander roam freely.

Why They'll Go Under

Winston could disappoint again, and if he does it out of the gate, the Bucs might struggle to recover. A tough start might be in the cards no matter what because of the schedule, but Tampa needs to see some strong play out of Jameis to start the season and keep them in their first four games of the year. The rushing game doesn't have to be great, because of the offensive line and the lack of depth at the running back position. The defense is clearly better on paper, but that doesn't always mean anything once the season starts. The defensive line has to gel and end up actually performing to expectations; if it doesn't or JPP/Curry can't generate pressure on the edge, it's easy to see this defense struggling again.

Early Schedule Analysis

The opening stretch here is BRUTAL. The Bucs open with the Saints on the road then get the Eagles and Steelers at home and travel to play the Bears before their Week 5 bye. 2-2 is a massive win there. It doesn't get much easier out of the break, with three of their first four games out of the break on the road (at Atlanta, at Cincy, at Carolina). Good news: they get the Browns at home in Week 7. The season is going to hinge on a five-game stretch that features the Redskins at home, the Giants on the road and a three-game homestand against the 49ers, Panthers and Saints. Tampa closes with the Ravens/Cowboys on the road and the Falcons at home in Week 17.

The Pick



This is a rough schedule and there are a lot of question marks on this roster. Not problems, just question marks. The biggest concern has to be the division: New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina are a brutal group of teams to get six games against. The NFC South alone could almost guarantee a .500 season if the teams live up to the hype. But the Bucs don't even need to go .500 to hit their over, and I see this as a season they surprise some people and make some noise in the division.

VERDICT: OVER