Two belated sequels are hitting multiplexes this weekend, and both look as though they’re going to open considerably lower than their predecessors; Fox is finishing off their long-running X-Men saga with the long delayed Dark Phoenix, which has so far received terrible reviews from critics and looks to have the lowest opening in the franchise by a wide margin, while Universal hopes to capture family audiences with The Secret Life of Pets 2 before Pixar sucks up all the oxygen with Toy Story 4 two weeks from now.

Dark Phoenix has had a tough way getting into theaters; originally set for November 2nd of last year, Fox swapped it out for the hugely successful Bohemian Rhapsody, setting a new date of Valentine’s Day – which they swapped out right after the first teaser was released, finally settling on this weekend; June 7th. However, if it does fail this weekend, it will likely not be because of the release date, but rather the terrible reviews and complete lack of buzz in the past several months.

Based on early pre-sale data, there is reason to believe that Dark Phoenix may wind up close to the territory of 2015’s Fantastic Four at around $25 million, but that would definitely be worst case scenario; realistically, the title will likely wind up in the low $30 million range, which would still be a disaster for a title that cost $200 million after costly reshoots.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 also seems to possibly be running into some trouble this weekend, though it’s much more likely to find long term success than Dark Phoenix thanks to its thrifty $80 million budget and strong overseas potential. The original Pets film clocked in over $870 million, more than eleven times its budget. A sequel was inevitable, of course, though it certainly does seem like interest in the property has cooled down quite a bit since 2016.

The main reason for this could be the lack of a solid hook, or simply the massive competition from Toy Story 4 on the horizon. The original Pets also benefitted from being released in mid-July, when Finding Dory had already more or less run its course, allowing it to soak up most of the family audience, which can’t be said for Pets 2, which has much more competition from the aforementioned Toy Story, as well as Aladdin. If it can top $60 million this weekend, it will be in good shape, but don’t expect it to come close to its predecessors fantastic $104 million debut.

In terms of limited releases, A24 will open their acclaimed drama The Last Black Man In San Francisco in seven locations, while Amazon made the last-minute choice to do a platform launch for Late Night, which was originally set to open wide this weekend, but was pushed to next weekend with a limited start in New York and Los Angeles this weekend.

Predictions

The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $51 million Dark Phoenix – $31 million Aladdin – $21 million Godzilla: King of the Monsters – $15 million Rocketman – $13.5 million