Jamie Samuelsen

Special to the Detroit Free Press

If the Detroit Lions don’t winSunday, obviously Jim Caldwell’s on thin ice. If you were GM Bob Quinn at that point, would you axe Caldwell?

I think the Lions will beat the Chicago Bears this Sunday.

I also think it doesn’t make a bit of difference. Don’t get me wrong. It matters to the players and the fans. It matters to the standings and the draft order. It certainly matters to Jim Caldwell, who is doing everything possible to succeed in Detroit, likely his final chance at being an NFL head coach.

But it doesn’t matter to the big picture which is the future of the Lions under general manager Bob Quinn.

Only Quinn knows Caldwell’s future. Some people believe Quinn was instructed by the Ford family to keep Caldwell when Quinn was hired in January. I don’t buy it. Quinn was a hot name in the profession and would never have taken a job like this one unless he had full authority over all of the football decisions. Why would he take a job where his coach had been hand-picked before he even got there? Quinn said before the season Caldwell had no “playoff-or-bust” parameters on him. But that’s hardly the same as saying Caldwell was going to be his coach

►​Birkett: Not coaching, but lack of depth keeping Lions from contending

►Sharp: With this roster, Caldwell set up to fail this season

The Lions lost to the Packers on Sunday for one simple reason: They weren’t nearly as good as their opponent. Caldwell got a large share of the blame after the game because the Lions started so poorly and trailed 31-10 at halftime. To me, the loss wasn’t on Caldwell. Instead, it was on former longtime GM Martin Mayhew.

When Aaron Rodgers broke the huddle for the first time and looked across the line of scrimmage at the defense, he saw eleven players who probably didn’t make his blood pressure rise much. The two best players on the defense, Ziggy Ansah and DeAndre Levy, were injured. Defensive end Devin Taylor was playing hurt. You have to be a special kind of athlete to make it as far as the NFL. But when it comes to star power and playmakers, the Lions were left with Darius Slay ... and not much else. Glover Quin and Haloti Ngata are fine players probably on the downside of their careers. But when you combine them with what is left healthwise on the Lions' defense, there’s just not much there.

Caldwell was blamed for not having them ready. How do you get your practice squad ready for Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson? Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was criticized for not blitzing more than he should have. Guess what? He did blitz. The blitzers didn’t get through. And as a result, Rodgers found wide open receivers down the field.

The Lions have lost two games in a row after nearly giving away their opener. I can tell you from years of experience on the radio that a three-game start like this normally brings out the arrows and pitchforks from the fans. But the attitude of the fans is muted this year and I think I know why. It’s not because they’ve given up on the team or are finally turned off by the violence in the sport. It’s not because they don’t want political protest mixed in with their Sunday routine (although the Lions are one team that has to this point refrained from any public expression). It’s not even because of dissatisfaction with Caldwell, although there is plenty of that.

►Seidel: When it's this bad, blame Caldwell

►Related: Lions' defense ought to play faster, Quin says

For the first time in memory, Lions fans are being pragmatic. They understand the enormity of the job Quinn was hired to do. They get that this isn’t a one-year fix. This is instead Year 1 of a project that hopefully ends with some form of postseason success. Quinn’s decision to retain Caldwell shouldn’t be viewed as a sign of weakness. Instead, it should be viewed as a sign of strength, that Quinn has enough confidence in himself and his contract to take time to assess the team, the talent and the entire organization. If anything, Caldwell is irrelevant to the process. He’s a placeholder for the coach next year. He also happens to be a placeholder that ensured Jim Bob Cooter stuck around so that Quinn could determine how good quarterback Matthew Stafford could be going forward. So far so good on that front.

It’s not a very inspiring message to tell ticket holders the present doesn’t matter and the Lions aren't saying that. The Lions aren’t tanking like the Cleveland Browns are. They may not be contending like the Packers are. They are observing, considering, testing and planning. Caldwell is almost a drillmaster in place to run things, while Quinn decides who stays and who goes. Caldwell might very well end up going in favor of Josh McDaniels or Matt Patricia, the offensive and defensive coordinators Quinn worked with while in New England. Or he might stay. Again, that’s Quinn’s decision.

It’s a decision that shouldn’t be decided because of a meaningless October game in Chicago. It’s a decision that should be and will be based on the entirety of the season. Quinn is here to win. He was never going to win in Year 1. Bill Belichick didn’t. Neither did Bill Walsh or Bill Parcells. This is the long game and Lions fans realize it for the most part. If they don’t, they need to realize it soon.

Film study: What went wrong on Aaron Rodgers' key scramble vs. Lions?

Don’t get caught up with a game here or there. Get caught up with the season because that will tell the future of the franchise.

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