Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has climbed to within two percentage points of longtime front-runner Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (above). | Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images Poll: California governor’s race a toss-up

The California governor’s race has suddenly turned into a Democratic nail-biter.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has climbed to within two percentage points of longtime frontrunner Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.


The former San Francisco mayor’s once-formidable lead over Villaraigosa — numerous polls gave him a double-digit advantage — has now collapsed to a 23 percent to 21 percent edge among likely California voters, well within the non-partisan poll’s margin of error.

“Two Democrats are in a virtual tie in the top-two gubernatorial primary. But a quarter of likely voters are undecided — as many as support either of the front-runners,” said pollster Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. The poll of 1,705 California residents was taken January 21–30.

Under California’s “top two” or jungle primary system, the top two candidates in the June 5 primary, regardless of their party affiliation, will continue on to the November general election.

POLITICO Playbook newsletter Sign up today to receive the #1-rated newsletter in politics Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

With 24 percent of likely voters still undecided, the PPIC poll shows none of the other Democratic or Republican challengers within close range of the two former mayors. Those challengers include Democratic state Treasurer John Chiang at 9%, followed by Republican Assemblyman Travis Allen (8%), Republican businessman John Cox (7%), Democrat Delaine Eastin, the former state superintendent of public instruction (4%), and former GOP Rep. Doug Ose (3%).

In PPIC’s December poll, Newsom had a five point lead over Villaraigosa, 23 percent to 18 percent.

Newsom’s campaign, in advance of the Wednesday night poll release, sent out reminders of two other recently released polls that appeared to counter the PPIC findings.

The University of Southern California Rossier School of Education public poll released this week reported Newsom maintaining a formidable a 25 percent to 10 percent lead over Villaraigosa. The two Democratic frontrunners were followed by Cox at 9 percent, Chiang at 8 percent, Allen at 7 percent, Eastin at 5 percent, and Ose with 3 percent. The USC poll surveyed 2,500 registered voters in California.

Newsom’s campaign also touted an internal poll conducted by David Binder Research of 800 likely California voters. Released Wednesday, the survey reporting Newsom at 30 percent, Villaraigosa and Chiang at 11 percent, and Cox at 7 percent, with Eastin, Allen, and Ose tied at 4 percent.

PPIC also reported Wednesday that Newsom and Villaraigosa are now tied at 32 percent each among Democratic likely voters. Newsom attracts the largest numbers of independents -- who make up 1 in 5 California voters -- with 24 percent of their vote, compared to 17 percent for Villaraigosa, with 35 percent undecided, the poll showed. Almost half of Latino likely voters (48%) support Villaraigosa, PPIC’s poll showed.

Among Republican likely voters, Assemblyman Allen has 24 percent support, compared to Cox at 20 percent, with 35 percent undecided.

The poll questioned voters about their impressions of the gubernatorial candidates — giving them their name and commonly used title since official ballot titles have not yet been announced. Forty percent of respondents said they have favorable opinions of Newsom and Villaraigosa, but in daunting news for the rest of the challengers, more than half said they have no opinion — or have never heard of — Allen, Chiang, Cox, Eastin, or Ose.

