Rick Snyder's foes would need signatures from registered, not just eligible, voters. Recall expert watching Mich. in 2013

Michigan could be “ground zero for a recall vote” in 2013, targeting Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and unleashing a massive effort that is likely to mirror at least 15 other, smaller recall contests already lined up in other states next year.

According to one estimate, 2012 saw at least 168 recalls — up from 151 in 2011 and a record high, according to data compiled by Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at Wagner College’s Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform.


The battle to oust Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, which also included his lieutenant governor and four state senators, was the only one in 2012 that targeted statewide officials, with the rest involving city and county politicians and issues.

“There doesn’t seem to be a specific goal of going after state legislatures or state governors in any significant way, though that might change in Michigan because of right-to-work (legislation),” he said. “That’s a pretty decent start to the year.”

But opponents of Snyder, a Republican who approved right-to-work legislation this year, have a higher threshold than Walker’s detractors had. To launch a recall, Michigan law allows signatures only from registered voters, which is the national norm, while Wisconsin law accepts signatures from any eligible voter, Spivak said.

Despite the high-profile and unsuccessful bid last summer to recall Walker — an effort backed largely by the state’s labor groups after Walker stripped unions of collective bargaining rights — 2012 recalls largely achieved their goals.

The data show 82 politicians were booted out of office, while 26 resigned their posts before the recalls, which were held in 20 states and the District of Columbia this year.

If next year does have fewer recalls, one reason could be that on-the-ground political forces in states will wait for 2014’s midterm elections, Spivak said.

“I was a little surprised that 2012 saw so many because it’s a general election year,” he said, adding that “2011 made sense because there’s nothing else going on.”