Alex Deane, who was Cameron’s chief of staff in 2005, said he thinks the Tories will lose the general election.

Speaking with Public Affairs News, Deane said the Tories grassroots support had collapsed, meaning Labour would beat them in the “ground game”.

Deane explained:

“The basic scenario in this Parliament has been clear for a while and remains unchanged in 2015: UKIP up, dividing the right, Lib Dems down, uniting the left.

“This becomes stronger as the election nears, because Labour’s ground game with unionists, volunteers and activists is far better than the Tory machine, which has been hollowed out at a local level – no amount of solid by-election campaign efforts can plaster over that collapse in the grassroots when facing the challenge of a general election.

“Research supports these intuitive points: I am that rare thing, a Tory who believes in polling, and seat by seat analysis is pretty wretched for the Conservatives. So, despite Miliband rather than because of him, my prediction for May is a Labour victory.”