There's nothing like a three-game win streak to get people excited in Leaf Land.

This has been a remarkably bipolar start to the year for the Leafs. Mixed in prior to these three consecutive wins have been some horror show games, making it tough to get a handle on what this team is.

One thing worth pointing out is that, while some have discounted the Leafs record of late (6-4-1 on the year) because of opponents like Buffalo and beat-up Columbus, the reality is Toronto will probably face easier opponents like that over the course of the season given their division and conference.

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Last year, they met the Sabres or Panthers – the two worst teams in the league – every nine games, which is part of why sports statistician Jeff Sagarin had them with the second easiest schedule in the league.

This year, so far and by that measure, they've had the seventh easiest schedule.

Keeping that in mind, here's where I think the Leafs are, heading into their 12th game against the struggling Coyotes: A little bit better than last year, primarily thanks to some system and player usage tweaks.

They're on pace for 97 points, which seems a shade high based on the underlying numbers. What we've seen through 11 games probably has them closer to 90, but that's an upgrade from 84 in 2013-14.

Some of the areas the Leafs have been better are pretty subtle. They've improved at shot suppression while on the penalty kill, thanks in large part to the play of Dan Winnik and Leo Komarov, who have been great at getting in lanes and clearing pucks.

Toronto is now generating more shots per minute while on the power play than they're giving up while killing penalties, which is one of the reasons they're only being outshot by two per game instead of eight like last year.

At even strength, where they have really struggled possession wise, there's been modest improvement. Their goal differential per 60 minutes is positive 0.33 – last year it was -0.25 – and puck possession is up from 42.2 per cent to 46 per cent.

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They continue to also get very solid shooting and save percentages, and at least on the goaltending side, that should be sustainable all year.

And they can be a low seeded playoff team without being a great possession team if they get that.

I mentioned Winnik and Komarov on the penalty killing side, but at even strength, where the Leafs have been better is with some of their big minute guys. They're generating as many shots as they're giving up with Dion Phaneuf on the ice, for example, as opposed to getting killed with him out there.

Why? Well he's in easier minutes, he's got a partner in Cody Franson that – while not fleet of foot – has a good breakout pass and holds the offensive blueline well, and his ice time is down about 1.5 minutes a game.

It's been a big positive that the coaching staff has realized some of Phaneuf's limitations.

You add in how well the third line has added a cycle element to the Leafs game, David Clarkson's improvement, Winnik and Mike Santorelli as additions, Nazem Kadri's strong play possession-wise, and it's not hard to see where the boost has been.

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Some of that is also simply trying to play a different style of game, one where defencemen like Morgan Rielly are much more encouraged to shoot the puck and where the Leafs D are supposed to make entry into their zone harder.

Now, the challenges will be to (a) get Jake Gardiner going, (b) get Tyler Bozak's line to improve defensively and (c) have some semblance of a useful fourth line.

Eventually, the Leafs goal has to be to be able to outpossess good teams once in a while and not simply beat up on the Sabres et al. But there were times last year where mediocre teams were all over Toronto, and so far, that hasn't happened.

If you're one of those fans rooting for the Leafs to tank and get a good pick, that's not good news. The Leafs simply don't look bad enough to be in the Connor McDavid race, not with the gains made and not with their talent in goal and on special teams.

It's probably a low playoff seed or bust.