Donald Trumphas rowed back from some of his earlier statements but his continued praise of Russia’s Vladimir Putin and belittling of his own respected intelligence community mean that no one can be sure what his defence posture will be. Some saw this day coming. Estonia, occupied by Soviet Russia for some 50 years, needed no warning. After regaining independence it began to rebuild its country as a digital nation. Today, its entire state is backed up on three servers abroad. I recently asked a senior Estonian official why. He said it was in preparation for the Russian invasion. They were ready to be a people without a land.

Poland and Lithuania are also readying for a future conflict by training militias in the forests on their eastern border and Latvia has joined its Baltic neighbours in raising defence spending. They have watched the invasion of Ukraine, the conquest of Crimea, the occupation of a fifth of Georgia and the cyber attacks on Estonia. They know defence takes planning.

But for many of us the strategic shift in the US is yet to be fully appreciated. We were told that Trump would never get the Republican nomination. He did. We were told that he would become more presidential. He hasn’t. America’s allies don’t have the luxury of waiting to find out if he means what he says about Nato. We must take him at face value; anything else is gambling with our national security.