With the Warriors winning their third championship in 4 years, they are entering into the ranks of legendary NBA dynasties like Jordan’s Bulls and Kobe/Shaq Lakers. And with the unanticipated signing of Demarcus Cousins, it doesn’t look like their reign of terror on the NBA will stop this season. But what about next year? What about in 5 years? Can they continue their dominance into the 20’s? I’m going to show you that, yes they can, and it might not be particularly difficult.

There are four big questions that I will pose that will determine the longevity of the Warrior’s dynasty. There are some educated assumptions made, such as Cousins leaving after this year, and Durant signing a max deal next summer. But there are some important unknowns that I aim to answer. Some are essential to execute, others are just cherries on top. The rich get richer, as they say.

The Big 4 questions are:

1. Should they re-sign Klay next year?





2. Should they re-sign Draymond in 2020?

3. Is management able, and willing, to spend big bucks to keep the team together?

4. When should they blow it up?

(just imagine these guys are Klay, Steph and Dray)

First and foremost, Klay Thompson.

Klay is a paradox. He is super low-maintenance, both on and off the court. He doesn’t cause PR problems and doesn’t need the ball in his hands much. However, he is extremely important to the team. He covers for Steph’s defensive liabilities by defending the opposing team’s best offensive guard and provides excellent spacing. He is the best 3-and-D player in a league where that may be one of the most valuable types of player (outside of superstar play-makers). He is absolutely worthy of max money, yet he has hinted at the possibility of taking a pay-cut to stay in the Bay.

We don’t deserve Klay, but that’s besides the point. If he is willing to take a pay-cut, it may make it more financially feasible to keep Draymond in 2020.

Next year, Klay’s contract ends and he becomes an unrestricted free agent. This means that the Warriors don’t have the ability to match any other team’s offers to Klay. If Klay was restricted, then if the Lakers offered Klay $30 million, the Warriors would be able to match, and Klay would be forced to accept the Warriors offer. This essentially means that it is ultimately up to Klay to decide where he wants to go – the Warriors have no say.

Can the Warriors afford to give him the max – $32 million? While they signing would keep the Warriors in the luxury tax, since he is already on the team, it is allowed.

Another issue is that the repeater tax kicks in for the Warriors next season, meaning that they have been over the luxury tax level for four out of the past five seasons. There are two caps, the regular salary cap, and the higher luxury tax level. Teams are penalized for being over the luxury tax, especially so if they are repeat offenders. This graph outlines the cost of being over the luxury cap.

Basically, teams are incrementally penalized as they continue to go over the luxury cap. Being over by $5 million will cost you an extra $7.5 million while being over by $10 million will cost you $16.25 million. Repeater tax ups the ante. This obviously dissuades organizations from overspending, as even the owners with the deepest pockets will feel an extra $50 million out of their accounts, exactly the amount the Cavaliers paid last year.

Coming back from NBA Tax 101 and getting back to the Warriors situation, signing Thompson to the max could have severe financial implications next season.

You saw that right, the Warriors would be paying almost double the player salary amounts. The player payroll would be $168 million, much higher than the Luxury tax level. The tax bill? $137 million. While the Warriors are valued at $3.1 billion, that $137 million is no insignificant number. Whether the owners of the Warriors are willing to do this will be covered later.

So final verdict on Klay? It makes sense to sign him to the max. He would have many other suitors at his max contract of $32 million, so that will tell you he is worth the money. It becomes a no-brainer if he is willing to take any significant pay-cut.

Next up, Draymond Green.

The heart and soul of the team, Draymond is an underrated piece of the Warrior’s puzzle. His ability to play the unique dual role of defensive anchor and primary ball handler was the catalyst to the Warrior’s meteoric rise to dominance. His effectiveness in the role sent scouts scrambling to find the next him, to no avail. There are no players quite like him in the history of the game. His dynamic play style makes me continually oscillate on my opinion of the the order of importance of the Warriors Big 4.

Now there are two different ways that you can rank the Big 4. One can be on pure talent/skill alone. If you did this, it would be

1a/1b. Curry/Durant

Klay Draymond

But if you rank it in the importance to the team and the effectiveness in which it executes, it would be, (and I’m prepared to be scoffed at)

Curry Draymond Durant Klay

Yes, I’m saying that Draymond may be more important to the Warriors than MVP and 4-time scoring champion Kevin Durant. Shocking, I know. But without him playing the role he plays, they aren’t the pace-and-space Warriors that revolutionized the NBA, they would just be star-studded team (albeit a very talented team). There have been many teams with lots of talent that didn’t have that glue piece that put them over the top. Think the 2012-13 Thunder or even the 2012-13 Lakers.

That being said, the timing of his contract makes it less likely the Warriors would keep him. Assuming that Klay signs a max contract, the addition of Draymond’s max contract would really start to add up. And Draymond has made it clear that he will demand the max. No financial goodwill like Klay on the part of Green. It makes sense that management might rather take the early max, instead of letting Klay walk and leave a glaring hole in the team while the team is in their championship-winning prime. Here’s what the financials would look like if Green gets his max the summer after Klay also gets his max. Also keep in mind that this is the most financially optimistic picture. See that I filled the rest of the roster with vet minimums and players on rookie-scale contracts.

So as much as it pains me to say this, Draymond may need to be let go after his contract is up. It’s hard to commit to a future where the Warriors are paying a 35-year-old Draymond $50 million. His game will most likely not age as gracefully as Steph, Klay or Durant’s. It would not be the end of the world if the Warriors offer him the max, it just limits their flexibility of injecting fresh talent into the team down the road. Perhaps the Pelicans could be persuaded with a juicy trade package for Anthony Davis to replace Draymond in 2020-21. If Anthony Davis makes it clear that he won’t re-sign, it might be in the Pelican’s best interest to forgo the last year of his contract to get the best return they can get, lest he walk and they get nothing. Just a wild dream. But then again, so was Durant to the Warriors.

Are management Big Ballers?

Third, is management willing, and able, to spend the money to keep the dynasty alive?

These past few years of being in the luxury tax has shown that, yes, the management is willing to spend for the benefit of the team. The re-signing of Andre Iguodala to a good-faith contract is evidence of this. Much of the $21 million the Warriors are over the luxury cap this season is from Iguodala’s $16 million contract. His contract alone is actually costing them $57 million – $16 million in actual contract plus the $41 million in tax bill). But he is important to the team’s success, so the management paid him.

Besides, it is in the management’s best interest to perpetuate the team’s success. Here’s a graph that shows the value of the Warriors franchise over the years.

Needless to say, winning is good for business. The increase in value each year is well worth the extra tax that comes with paying your star athletes. Plus, next year, the Warriors move to the new and shiny Chase Center. According to an article by Patrick Murray, a sports financial analyst, “The naming rights, luxury suites, and ticket prices increases at the Chase Center, plus a new TV deal, could total an extra $90-95 million every year.”

There are a plethora of other side revenue streams, from non-basketball events at Chase Center to sponsorship deals that will continue to pad the pockets of Warriors management.

Blowing it Up

Every good thing must come to end, but it’s the hallmark of a good organization when these lulls in success are short and graceful. The golden standard are the Spurs. Now there is an element of luck (like being bad for one year to draft Tim Duncan), but it would be an insult to the Spurs to say they aren’t forging the own path. They saw that their star, Kawhi, was unhappy, and got the best return they could get for him. There’s no doubt in my mind that they will continue to be competitive, because their management is top-notch.

The Warriors Big 4 will get old. Father time is undefeated. At the end of each of their contracts (Durant/Green/Thompson assuming they each sign 5-year maxs), Steph will be 35, Durant will be 36, Klay 34 and Green 35. What to do then? I’m sure they will all be plenty good still. But will they be effective enough to warrant the money they demand? Will they still be competing for championships?

All these questions are impossible to answer now, but in the years leading up to this, the Warriors must continually assess loyalty vs. success. Perhaps it may be better to trade away a player on the last year of their contract to acquire young talent. A likely scenario is that the Big 4 take less money after their max contract to fall in line with decreased effectiveness, allowing younger stars to carry the load.

Another question is how greedy should the Warriors organization be? In the waning years of the dynasty, what is success defined as? Is it championship or bust? These years of dominance may cause Warriors’ fans to forget the humble situation the Warriors were in for many years. Making the playoffs was a resounding success in the dark ages of the 2000s.

In my opinion, I’d love to see the Big 4 retire as Warriors. I would be satisfied with the 6-7 years of championships. Pay them what they want in their last few years in the league, and smile when you see the flashes of brilliance every once in a while.

Other Factors

Of course, there are other things that may impact the trajectory of the franchise. The team has drafted well the last 10 years, so it is very likely that they may get some unexpected talent in this avenue.

But the Warriors won’t have good picks, because they win too many games! Not to worry, as it seems that after the top 10 picks, the probability of getting a good NBA player stays the same. Looking at past drafts, there is no significant difference in the average player picked between #10-#30. Therefore, it would be in the best interest of the Warriors to get as many opportunities to get a steal like Draymond late in the draft.

We saw the team do this last year, controversially buying a pick from the Bulls to draft Jordan Bell. While teams may wise up, the Warriors should continue to try to buy picks in an effort for fresh talent.

Injuries may cut the dynasty short, but it may also lengthen it. Demarcus Cousin’s injury lowered his value, allowing the Warriors to pick him up for cheap. This may become a trend. An injured player may see the Warriors as a platform to restore his market value. These will likely be one-year deals, but anything helps.

On a related note, ring-chasing vets like David West may come cheap, which would bolster the bench.

Summary

If you were too lazy to read the whole thing, I’ll summarize the main points.

Give Klay the max, if he takes a pay cut, even better

Let Draymond walk, in the hopes of using the money on younger talent, like Anthony Davis

Management are big spenders. Coupled with the new income from the shiny Chase Center, they will have plenty of quiche to continue the dynasty.

Periodically assess the dynasty, and see if there are opportunities to inject fresh, young talent. Even if this means a lull, it is worth it. The Warriors should aim to be the Spurs 2.0

Draft well, take advantage of ring-chasing vets and sign injured players looking to regain their value with a high-profile year with the champs

And there it is, how the Warriors can keep their dynasty running. In a few years, we may look at them the same way we look at the Celtics and Lakers. Teams whose success transcend sports.