The House Democratic Caucus was abuzz with speculation that Rep. Ben Ray Luján would run almost immediately after Sen. Tom Udall’s retirement announcement. | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO 2020 elections Luján expected to jump into New Mexico Senate race The No. 4 Democrat in the House is leaning heavily toward running statewide after Sen. Tom Udall announced his retirement.

Rep. Ben Ray Luján is expected to run for Senate in 2020, abandoning a chance to move up the rung in House leadership, according to multiple people close to the New Mexico Democrat.

It is a sharp change of course for the fast-climbing congressman, a close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi who led House Democrats’ campaign arm to victory in 2018 and then catapulted into the new Democratic majority’s No. 4 leadership position. But while Luján hasn’t decided, he is heavily leaning toward jumping into the race to replace retiring Sen. Tom Udall, according to multiple Democratic lawmakers and aides familiar with Luján’s thinking.


Although the timing is unclear, an announcement is expected in the coming weeks. And while it’s also unclear whether other Democrats would run in the primary, given the party’s strong bench and the limited opportunity to move up the ranks in Democratic-leaning New Mexico, Luján would become an immediate front-runner to replace Udall, according to multiple Democrats in New Mexico and Washington.

“These things don’t come around very often and when they do, you need to seriously consider it,” said one person close to Luján.

“When it comes down to it, Ben Ray is a policy guy and he sincerely got into Congress and into public service to help the people of New Mexico,” the person added, noting that the Senate provides a rich environment to do that.

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The House Democratic Caucus was abuzz with speculation that Luján would run almost immediately after Udall’s retirement announcement Monday; multiple lawmakers sent Luján texts urging him to take the leap. Pelosi (D-Calif.) even jokingly called him “Sen. Luján” as he entered a private Democratic leadership meeting Monday night.

“As soon as I heard, I encouraged him to run,” said Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Calif.), a close friend of Luján who described him as a “mentor.” “I said, ‘Believe me my friend, there are so many people who would just be elated if you were to run.”

The move to the Senate could be a natural progression for Luján, 46, who has quickly risen in the House Democratic Caucus since he was first elected in 2008, when Udall left a seat open to run for Senate.

Pelosi tapped Luján to lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee after the 2014 midterms, a surprise move to many Democrats given that he wasn’t even thought to be on the shortlist for the position. Since then, Luján has only risen in profile and stature, helping engineer the Democratic takeover of the House last year and then easily being elected “assistant speaker,” the No. 4 leadership position, in November.

But Luján, while well-liked within the caucus, could see the Senate race as an easier path to a higher-profile job than elbowing for position with colleagues in an all-but-certain horse race when Pelosi and her top lieutenants retire.

Luján is one of several ambitious, younger members who could be fighting for the speakership and other top positions in several years. Luján’s decision to run for the Senate would also make it much easier for New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the No. 5 House Democrat, to pursue the speakership when Pelosi retires.

Pelosi could serve as speaker up to four more years; she has promised to step down at that point — if not sooner. If Luján departs before then, he would be the latest in a line of up-and-coming Democrats who left the House with unfulfilled leadership ambitions — including Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, California Attorney General Xavier Becerra and Steve Israel of New York.

“At the end of the day, whoever replaces Pelosi, it’s going to be a knife fight. Luján doesn’t do knife fights,” said a former senior Democratic aide.

Van Hollen, who previously chaired the DCCC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said he hadn't talked to Luján but planned to reach out in the coming days. "I think he'd be a great member of the Senate but he's making a lot of contributions in the House, too," Van Hollen said.

Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) said he wouldn’t weigh in on who can or will run for Udall’s seat, saying he was focused on keeping the seat in Democratic hands. But asked about Luján, Heinrich called him a “very formidable candidate.”

Luján’s ability to raise money and his connections with party activists from his time chairing the DCCC would give him a major leg up as a Senate candidate.

“I think he would give an awful lot of folks in the state pause before they got in,” said Dan Sena, a Luján adviser who was executive director of the DCCC during the 2018 election cycle.

But the party has a strong bench and few opportunities to move up statewide in New Mexico — and with Democrats widely seen as strong favorites to retain the seat in November, the race could be difficult for Democratic rivals to pass up.

Two potential candidates, state Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver and state Attorney General Hector Balderas, are considering running and have the advantage of statewide campaign experience.

Oliver spoke with Luján Monday night and made clear she was still considering running for Senate regardless of his decision, according to a person familiar with the conversation. If Luján ran, it would not influence her decision on whether to get into the race, the person familiar with her thinking said.

First-term Reps. Deb Haaland and Xochitl Torres Small are considered potential candidates, according to Democratic sources. Both are considered rising stars in the party: Torres Small, 34, flipped a swing district that Republicans had held since 2010, and Haaland, 58, is a former state party chairwoman and one of the first two Native American women to serve in Congress.

Torres Small declined to comment Tuesday when asked if she is mulling a run. A person close to Haaland said she is giving it “strong consideration," which Haaland later confirmed in a tweet.

"Thank you for love and encouragement New Mexico! I hear you, and I’m giving the Senate race a lot of thought and consideration. I'll let you know when we've got news to share!" Haaland tweeted.

“I don't know if [Luján] clears the field just yet,” said one New Mexico Democrat who requested anonymity to candidly discuss the field. “We've got a bench here that's pretty good and frankly pretty young and smart and talented. It's not clear to me that anyone's getting out just yet.”

Luján has had statewide ambitions for years: He considered running for Senate in 2012 but passed, and Heinrich defeated Balderas in the Democratic Senate primary that year.

Luján was on a plane back from New Mexico when Udall made his surprise announcement that he wouldn’t seek a third term in 2020, becoming the first Democratic senator to announce his retirement this election cycle.

As soon as his plane landed in Baltimore, Luján was awash with messages of support from colleagues, relatives and activists encouraging him to run, one person said.

“Ben Ray immediately popped to mind” after Udall’s announcement, Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) said in an interview. “I always think senator is a lot better deal. It’s very easy from California,” with more than 50 House members, “to see that it’s a big step up.”

Luján has already starting putting out feelers to gauge the level of support he’d have for a Senate campaign, reaching out to other members of the New Mexico delegation, people tied to Senate Democrats’ campaign arm and even his mom, according to sources.

“It’s a natural progression” said Chuck Rocha, head of the Latino-owned political consulting firm Solidarity Strategies, citing Luján’s success as his rise from the New Mexico state house to DCCC chairman.

“I’ve been on private [text] messages with more than 20 Latino leaders talking about the opportunity now for Ben Ray to step up and how we’d all encourage him to run,” Rocha added.

Laura Barrón-López contributed to this report.