Deng Xiaoping understood this, and that is what he, Zhao Ziyang and Hu Yaobang were trying to fix in the 1980s. It wasn’t until 1998 that the reformers began again — a period of reform that lasted a decade until 2008-09, when the regime abandoned relative liberalization. Since then, atrophy has accelerated. This does not mean China is about to collapse. But it does mean that China is now stagnating, relatively speaking.

Q. So it ended before Xi Jinping took power? If so, why is he often portrayed as the boogeyman?

A. It definitely began before Xi assumed the top positions in 2012. Of course, he was part of the senior leadership that decided in 2008-9 to end the decade-long managed political opening. Since 2012, however, we have witnessed Xi intensifying controls at all levels and across all sectors, while concentrating power in himself.

Q. You noted early on that Xi wasn’t likely to be a reformer. What led you to that conclusion?

A. It had to do with my understanding of Chinese bureaucratic politics more than of Xi Jinping himself. But I also had the sense that Xi himself had no liberal genes in his DNA. That his intellectual and political orientation harked back to an earlier era, rather than the 21st century. There has been a theory circulating in China-watching circles that Xi is cracking down before he opens up, but I don’t buy it. There are certainly many frustrated reformers within the party apparatus and government. But Xi and the leadership remain deeply insecure and convinced that opening up is a certain path to the system’s demise.

Image

Q. There seems to be a general disenchantment with China among American China-watchers.

A. China is simply not turning out as many had expected and have worked so long and hard to realize — a liberal China. That has been, I would argue, the underlying operative assumption of American policy ever since the 1980s. It sounds simplistic, perhaps naïve, but the United States has been working towards that end for several decades.

There are many other reasons for the recent disenchantment as well: problems that the foreign business community is experiencing, China’s expanding military power, island-building and militarization in the South China Sea, its diplomatic truculence, crackdown on NGOs and religion, pressure on Hong Kong and other negative trends. Taken together with the illiberal orientation of the regime, this has caused a real disenchantment with China in the U.S.

Q. You’ve been coming to China every year since 1979. What period of time is the current period closest to?