The East is underwater and taking Canada down with it.

Ontario's economic picture is becoming more like Quebec in all the wrong ways, says a new study from the Montreal Economic Institute. Now it's even dragging down national averages.

It was bad enough when Canada's most populous province started receiving equalization payments in 2009. But now it's gotten worse. It used to be that economically troubled Quebec was urged to be more like Ontario. It was good advice back then. And in many respects they took it ... and went in the wrong direction.

As policy analysts Mark Milke and Youri Chassin write: "While the picture has improved somewhat in Quebec, including recent fiscal prudence on the part of the government, this narrowing of the gap does not so much reflect Quebec's good performance as it does Ontario's gradual decline."

Quebec's known for its overly generous social programs. Now Ontario's ramped up the numbers too. Back in 2002, Quebec spent $5,659 per capita compared to Ontario's $5,385. They've both drastically gone up, but now Ontario's taking the lead -- $8,765 in 2015 compared to Quebec's $8,042. That's a 42.1% increase for Quebec and a 62.8% increase for Ontarians. These expenses are either being offloaded onto taxpayers or piled up as debt.

"An equalization recipient, running deficits like there's no tomorrow, and downgraded by credit rating agencies because of its debt load, the Ontario government is walking the path that put Quebecers at a disadvantage for decades. Once the economic engine of Canada, Ontario is fast becoming the laggard of Confederation." - From "Is Ontario the new Quebec?" by the Montreal Economic Institute

This spending as a percentage of the economy has also grown more in Ontario than Quebec over that period. Quebec's went up by 0.7% of GDP. But Ontario's increase was more than four times that amount, at 3%.

Spendaholics will rationalize all of these troubling figures by saying this spending is at least growing the economy. But is it true? Sadly not. At least not enough.

The study not only points out that employment gains during that period in Quebec (14.9%) and Ontario (14.7%) are noticeably behind the national average gains (17.4%). It also notes median family income growth is underperforming. Quebec's, at 43.2%, mirrors the 43.4% national average. But Ontario's grew by only 32.2%. So program spending is up by two-thirds, but taxpayers shelling out for that spending have only gained a third in income? The math just doesn't work.

First step towards a solution? Maybe, just maybe, Ontario can stop pretending it's wise to continually spend itself into good times.