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Say Yes to Education President Mary Anne Schmitt-Carey speaks at the fifth-year anniversary celebration of Say Yes in Syracuse on June 10 at Roberts K-8 School.

(Stephen D. Cannerelli | scannerelli@syracuse.com)

Jakia Durham, who graduated from Syracuse University this spring with help from a Say Yes scholarship, shakes hands with Say Yes founder George Weiss at the June 10 fifth-year anniversary celebration.

This is the second of five articles on Say Yes to Education's fifth anniversary in Syracuse.

Say Yes to Education has said the first major indicator of its success would be the rising rate of Syracuse students heading off to college.

And, indeed, a handout provided to attendees at Say Yes' five-year Syracuse anniversary celebration June 10 reported a nearly 33 percent increase in the number of city graduates going to college over the past four years - from 437 in 2009 to 579 in 2012.

But a closer look at the data by The Post-Standard found that pronouncement to be both inaccurate and inflated.

First, the number of eligible graduates going on to Say Yes-affiliated colleges did increase to 579 in 2011, but in 2012 it fell back to 490. Second, by using raw numbers rather than percentages of students moving on, Say Yes presented the rosiest possible scenario.

In fact, the high number of graduates going to college in 2011 corresponded with an unusually large graduating class that year, making Say Yes' impact appear larger than it was.

The bottom line is that from 2009 to 2012, the percentage of eligible graduates who went on to Say Yes-affiliated colleges rose from 47.3 percent to 50.2 percent. That's an increase of 2.9 percentage points, or 6.1 percent - far from the 33 percent Say Yes touted.

There was a significant spike in 2011, when 58.1 percent went on to college - for a 23 percent increase over 2009. But that surge faded in 2012.

After reviewing all the numbers, Steven Ross, an education professor and senior research scientist at Johns Hopkins University and a research consultant for Say Yes, agreed that The Post-Standard's 6.1 percent number is "the most precise" measure of the four-year increase in college-going.

Both Ross and Say Yes President Mary Anne Schmitt-Carey say there was no intent to exaggerate the June 10 statistics, and that the raw numbers of students going to college are important. But Schmitt-Carey said Say Yes will add The Post-Standard's method of figuring the college-going rate to its data reporting going forward.

"Just know that we are tripling our investment to make sure that the data systems and the quality and consistency of the reporting on outcomes is above reproach," she said. "The community has our absolute commitment to that."

Say Yes has never been shy about touting its impact, and, perhaps with an eye to impressing potential donors, it tends to take a highly flattering view of its influence on both the schools and the city.

It boasts on its website that "Syracuse home values have risen 3.5 percent since 2009." Say Yes officials also have pointed to their presence as having a hand in falling city crime statistics.

Schmitt-Carey acknowledges that there is no way to prove any link between those statistics and Say Yes' tuition guarantees, student supports and other initiatives. But she says she sees "positive upward movement" in the community that goes beyond test scores.

"It's impossible ... to not say that this is a system and city that were off track and are now on track and are beginning to move slowly, positively in a very coordinated fashion in the right direction," she said.

Coming next:

Wednesday

Say Yes at 5: Is the free tuition pledge for Syracuse students real?

With some modifications, Say Yes has followed through on a remarkable guarantee

Thursday

Say Yes at 5: Will the Syracuse district, community coalition hold?

After five years, an unprecedented community partnership looks as strong as ever

Friday

Say Yes at 5: Are Syracuse schools improving?

Classroom advances are the school district's responsibility, but Say Yes has tried - haltingly - to clear the way for learning

Contact Paul Riede at priede@syracuse.com or 470-3260. Follow him on Twitter at @PaulRiede.