COMMENTARY: Better hurricane storm surge prediction needed

ICES Professor Clint Dawson wrote in support of hurricane surge simulation research in an editorial that has appeared in the Houston Chronicle, Huffington Post, and The Rio Grande Monitor.

"Although wind and storm surge are both important components of a hurricane, storm surge is more deadly and causes most of the property damage," wrote Dawson, professor of aerospace engineering and engineering mechanics. "It is still difficult for these models to accurately capture the intensity of a storm, but they have shown significant improvement during the past decade, especially at predicting the track of the storm."

"Fundamental research has led to significant advances in both wind and storm surge forecasting, he said. "There is a move toward combining the wind and surge forecasting capabilities into one overall modeling framework, with the advantage that surge could be calculated simultaneously with the wind field. This is something that should be adopted fully because it would immediately give forecasters more information about potential surge effects."

"There is also a move toward developing improved risk assessment, which should be implemented and quickly," wrote Dawson. "For example: providing a “cone of uncertainty” for storm surge — in the same way that one is developed for the hurricane track — would provide information to the public in a way that is both informative and understandable."

Dawson's full commentary can be read in the Houston Chronicle or the online version of The Monitor.