Since modern satellite data was first recorded, around 40 per cent of the Arctic sea ice cover has vanished, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center reports.

Similar facts highlighting the damaging effect of climate change on the polar cap are regularly reported. U.S. President Barack Obama provided another in a speech at the White House on Monday.

“Shrinking ice caps forced National Geographic to make the biggest change in its atlas since the Soviet Union broke apart,” he said, a week after unveiling his Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.

A computer image released by National Geographic illustrates the Arctic sea ice decline in a way no stated fact could.

The image shows the changing levels of ice through editions of the National Geographic atlas from 1999 to 2014.

“When we look at Arctic sea ice over the period from 1979, when modern satellite data begins, we’re losing ice every year,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

“The biggest decline is in the end-of-summer melt season in September.”

Rosemary Wardley, National Geographic’s senior cartographer, said the data in the final map shown in the computer image is from the 2014 edition, and refers to a NASA study published in 2012. That study measured sea ice at the end of the summer, when it is typically at its lowest level.

Serreze says the Arctic sea ice is experiencing a “very sharp downward trend” of around 13 per cent per decade.

“In 30 years, maybe less, if you went there in early September, there may be no sea ice at all,” he said.

“It will certainly happen within the next century, and I’m on record saying it could be as early as 2030.

“There will be sea ice in winter for centuries. But we’re headed towards a seasonally ice-free Arctic.”

The effect on Arctic wildlife, from plankton to polar bears, is already pronounced.

For animals, such as polar bears and walrus, which depend on sea ice to live and hunt, the impact could be catastrophic.

“Some animals will prosper. Some will not,” Serreze said.

“Consider moose and caribou. Caribou eat lichens and tundra plants. If it gets warmer and the tundra changes to shrubs, they have a problem. But moose will be saying ‘I like this, bring it on.’ There’s no simple answer to explain what will happen.”

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Ice melting should not affect sea water levels in a direct sense, as the ice is already afloat, just as ice cubes in a glass of water are.

Big issues loom. The less ice in the Arctic, the more accessible to shipping it becomes, and this provides economic opportunities where none previously existed.

Close to home, less ice means warmer seas, which, in turn, could mean shifting weather patterns for “middle latitudes” such as Toronto.

“No-one has a firm grip on what will happen,” Serreze says.

The only certainty is “the Arctic is going to become much busier.”

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