Federal election 2019 could see independents make history, with Indi as the test case

Posted

Helen Haines pulls up on her bicycle and removes her high-vis vest. She's busting to show us the trinkets adorning her campaign headquarters in downtown Wangaratta.

"It's kind of a beautiful way of art meeting politics," she smiles, clutching a bright orange laser-cut cockatoo.

The birds sit amongst a swathe of handmade fundraising merchandise including scrunchies, earrings and grocery bags.

"Instead of a T-shirt you'll notice they're wearing an orange cockatoo [brooch]," she says of her supporters.

"It's kind of a subtle little wink to say: 'We're part of this independent movement.'"

What is an 'independent'? Most candidates are from political parties... but if they aren't they are known as independents

Independents often receive fewer votes than candidates from single-issue minor parties such as Bullet Train or Outdoor Recreation partly because the ballot paper doesn't provide any information to voters about their policies

Independents are different to MPs from small parties like Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party, although both sit on the crossbench

Political parties usually receive more donations than independents and provide administrative support to candidates

Orange is the colour of Voices for Indi, the grassroots "army" or group that helped Cathy McGowan turn the seat independent after decades of conservative stronghold.

In Ms McGowan's retirement, Voices for Indi anointed Ms Haines, a nurse and midwife, to try to keep the seat independent by fighting a tough three-cornered contest with the Liberals and Nationals.

If she wins, she'll make history as the first independent to succeed another in a federal seat.

But she'd also show that local movements with a party-like structure can propel low-profile independent candidates into the corridors of power.

Has Indi's independent experiment worked?

Voices for Indi is made up of volunteers who insist it's a "movement", not a political party, and locals in the electorate's more progressive towns appear to like it that way.

"It's more inclusive — of the young and the old," explains Roz, a Yackandandah local enjoying a coffee from her bright orange chair, outside the local bakery.

She remembers fondly how Ms McGowan sat down with her for scones several years ago and got to the nub of what the area needed most.

Get a wrap of the key stories and analysis from the ABC's chief politics writer Annabel Crabb. Sign up

View Privacy Policy More Newsletters Download the ABC News app

Roz considers the large and diverse electorate to be "traditionally conservative", but points out that it's changing because of the young people moving in.

It stretches from snowy peaks to lush lowlands and farms, regional towns and tourist hotspots.

People point out familiar bugbears: dodgy phone reception, unemployment, high electricity prices, water policy, inadequate mental health services and long wait times for aged care packages.

But it's hard to pin-point a particular issue that could send swathes of voters swinging away from the major parties. And in these parts, conservative blood still runs strong.

Ms McGowan has spent her six years in Parliament fighting for mobile phone towers, better roads and rail — services locals want because they can change lives and make things easier.

But some voters aren't convinced having an independent representing them has worked.

"I still don't have phone reception at my house," laments one young voter in Bright.

"I believe you're better off with a member of a major party because the promises they say they're going to give before the election, you've got more chance of getting," says another man in Wangaratta.

But Coralie in Yackandandah recalls how the area "got zippo" during years of safe Liberal rule.

Amidst the enthusiasm for a grassroots approach, it's easy to forget Ms McGowan first won the seat by a whisker: less than 500 votes.

And there are a number of factors that suggest Ms Haines may struggle to continue the legacy.

The road to 'independence' isn't simple

Ms McGowan's repeated success in Indi wasn't just thanks to people power. She already had a strong history and profile in the area through her work in agriculture and rural industries.

One Nationals insider quips: "Some people saw her as a Nat in drag."

She was also assisted by an unpopular sitting member in Liberal Sophie Mirabella, who rusted-on conservatives felt had become too focused on Canberra and had forgotten her country constituents.

"A large proportion of the voters in north-eastern Victoria expressed to me their disappointment with the representation they'd been receiving in this part of the state," former Victorian Nationals MP Ken Jasper recalls.

Mr Jasper, who'd represented the region in state parliament for 35 years, gave local Nationals his blessing to get behind Ms McGowan in 2013, and some say she mightn't have won without his intervention.

It was a tough lesson for the Liberals. Major parties detest losing prized seats. It's why the Coalition is determined to win Indi back.

They've put their hope in engineer Steve Martin, a father of four who's been busy trying to boost his profile.

He clocked 50 town visits in 50 days early in the campaign and is a familiar face at the local skate park, where he takes his young children for time out.

"I'll be a hardworking local member that really listens, one that always tries to look after, particularly, small business," he says.

Mr Martin thinks the three-cornered contest is on a "knife's edge", but he and Nationals candidate Mark Byatt may benefit from conservatives who are no longer voting independent simply to oust Sophie Mirabella.

One of those is dairy farmer Bruce Lumsden, who admits he's "wavering".

"I'm considering going back to the conservative fold, but that doesn't necessarily mean Liberal over National or vice versa," he says.

Mr Lumsden says he wants a local member with a strong understanding of water policy and other agricultural policies. But he doubts the Nationals would fit that bill.

"I think they're sort of floundering from the common farmer's point of view," he says.

It's a concern repeatedly raised in rural electorates, and one of the reasons minor parties and independents have been gaining more traction in political contests.

Mr Byatt, the Nationals candidate, is a farmer and former Wodonga mayor. He says drought and water are pressing problems and points out there's "no doubt climate change is an issue".

"At the end of the day, the collective will make the change. And whilst we deal with things like Paris Agreements and Kyoto and those sorts of things, that's important, but on the local scene we need to activate locally," he says.

"And we've got some great examples of that in this region."

Nationals sources quietly concede the party's chances in Indi are slim. The race may therefore narrow to a final dash between Ms Haines and Mr Martin, and preferences could decide it.

Are rural independents really on the rise?

The Coalition is under threat from independents in a handful of seats, but the most intense battles playing out are in rural and regional areas.

Farrer (which neighbours Indi) and Cowper (in northern New South Wales) are also in play.

Fury over water policy has left Liberal Sussan Ley exposed against independent candidate and former Albury mayor Kevin Mack.

And the Nationals may lose Cowper to high-profile independent candidate Rob Oakeshott, who's again trying to make a return to Canberra.

ABC election analyst Antony Green says profile is hugely important if independents are to have a serious chance of winning.

He points to the success of former independent Tony Windsor, and Mr Oakeshott, who had both built up names in state parliament before winning federal New South Wales seats.

"But they weren't running on policy when they were elected," Green points out.

"The thing that undermined Windsor and Oakeshott was the day they supported the Labor Party and were actually talking about national policy.

"Independents get elected by promising to make the local area better, to work on local issues. The don't get elected on policy. No independent will ever win an election on policy."

Ms Haines is promising to support an integrity commission, more action on climate change, aged care and mental health. She's flagged the importance of improving water policy and continuing to fight for better roads, rail and phone reception.

Mr Martin and Mr Byatt are spruiking the Coalition's economic credentials while running hyper-local campaigns, pledging big bucks for various infrastructure projects.

While Ms Haines isn't widely known across the electorate, Green says she may be helped by the fact the Liberals and Nationals haven't put up high-profile candidates.

"The reason independents do better in the country than in the city is simply that in country areas, who you are is more important than your party," he says.

"People in urban electorates are lucky to know who the sitting member is, whereas in the country they're much more likely to know and to want to know who the other candidates are."

The sheer size of seats such as Farrer can also make it hard for independents to realise success. They often won't have the time or resources to reach enough voters before polling day.

It's why Green sees Indi as in important test of whether a "local party structure" like Voices for Indi can be enough to launch the political career of a low-profile independent candidate.

With May 18 fast approaching, Indi sits at a crossroad, not just for local voters but as a broader measure of the breakdown in support for the two major parties.

A win for Helen Haines would prove that, no matter how difficult, there's still a pathway to parliament for independents.

And a loss would be evidence that the shock upset for the Liberals several years ago was more an anomaly than the norm.

Topics: government-and-politics, federal-elections, elections, federal-government, nationals, liberals, australia, vic, benalla-3673, benalla-3672, bright-3741, euroa-3666, kinglake-3763, mansfield-3722, myrtleford-3737, wangaratta-3677, wodonga-3690