Continued cold weather could create the first coast-to-coast freeze on Lake Champlain since 2015, according to the National Weather Service.

"I wouldn't be surprised if it buttoned up tonight," Brooke Taber, a forecaster with the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, said Thursday.

Taber referred ice-watchers to the day's NASA satellite photo of the region — where just a few slivers of open water remain.

The recent stretch of single-digit weather, coupled with predictions of another polar blast early next week results in "a high probability" of a freeze-over soon, he added.

Freeze-overs have become less common in recent decades. It froze in 2014 and 2015 but prior to that, the most recent solid spell took place in 2007.

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The National Weather Service maintains an online record of Lake Champlain ice coverage that date from 1816. But, its website warns, observations from those early years were inconsistent.

This year's winter season, running from December through February, has been very close to normal, Taber said.

Extremely cold weather has been punctuated by unseasonable highs. February 4th and 5th posted temperatures in the 50s, Taber noted.

Is it safe to stroll to NY?

Even at its most frigid, Lake Champlain's ice is unpredictable, experts warn.

"No ice is safe ice," the U.S. Coast Guard seasonally advises, and they frown on impulsive ventures into the lake without safety gear and experienced guides.

Some of the primary reasons for caution:

Warmer water from ground seeps, river flow, currents and upswells invisibly erode ice from the bottom.

Increased sunshine in late winter more effectively melts ice, forming quicker-to-thaw pools as well as weakening the ice's subsurface crystalline structure.

Snow layers insulate ice from cold air, accelerating warming from below.

Those phenomena vary widely and are almost impossible to predict or map, according to the Coast Guard.

Contact Joel Banner Baird at 802-660-1843 or joelbaird@freepressmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @VTgoingUp.