MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Democrats’ most-mocked Senate candidate of 2016 believes he is within striking distance of getting the last laugh.

Marco Rubio has never trailed a public poll since he jumped into the race for his old Senate seat, three months after his presidential bid faltered, and Rubio and his party have spent millions portraying 33-year-old Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy as a rich kid, a lightweight, a résumé-inflater and a pushover. Meanwhile, Democrats pulled most of their advertising money out of Florida to redistribute it to less expensive states this fall, leaving Murphy at a huge disadvantage.


But Florida Republicans have felt twinges of discomfort as they’ve watched Donald Trump trail this October and Democratic early votes flood in. If the bottom falls out for Trump on Election Day — a scenario that may have just become less likely following the FBI’s Friday email announcement — Republicans fear he could drag Rubio down with him. Democrats’ main Senate super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, just sent at least $1 million to Florida to try to help make it happen.

“Sen. Rubio’s on defense,” Murphy insisted in an interview. “He doesn’t want the job. He doesn’t like the job. He views this as a consolation prize.”

It would be a huge turnaround for Murphy, who has been mercilessly mocked this year for his short business experience, embarrassing revelations that his résumé included misleading items, and his wealthy father’s inconveniently named luxury yacht, “Cocktails.” A GOP political machine that is more invested than ever in protecting Rubio’s political future has outspent Democrats by more than $15 million on advertising pushing these themes, while Democratic groups have largely left Murphy to fend for himself, leaving him almost wholly dependent on the possibility of a large Hillary Clinton win to get him across the finish line.

These attacks were neatly summed up in the final ad of the election, “Party Boy Patrick,” from Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund, which has remained invested in Florida despite the lack of Democratic money there. The ad uses old social media photos of Murphy at parties and mixes in attacks on his honesty and effectiveness as a congressman. “In a do-nothing Congress, Murphy’s at the bottom of the barrel,” the ad’s narrator says. “Florida can’t trust Phony Patrick Murphy.”

Yet Murphy, according to most public and private polling, trails Rubio by 3 to 6 percentage points — a gap that could be overcome with unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout and potentially weak GOP support in the presidential race, which Clinton has led in almost all recent polling. Though it is too early to gauge the effect of FBI Director James Comey’s Friday letter stating that emails related to the bureau’s investigation of Clinton are back under scrutiny, Democrats did worry that it further slimmed Clinton’s chances of running away with Florida, something no presidential candidate has done in decades.

But Republicans believe Rubio’s unique profile — high name ID in his state, singular strength with Hispanic voters, and a base of hard-core supporters — meant he was always better positioned than other incumbents to survive a wave.

“Of all the incumbents, Rubio is the best known: name ID but also opinion of him, his is highest of any because obviously he ran for president,” Americans for Prosperity President Tim Phillips said in an early October interview.

So far, Democratic early-voting participation is up compared with past years. Republicans lead by about 13,000 votes. At this point in 2008, they led by about 44,000 votes.

Two recent polls of the Senate race that broke down votes by time found Rubio leading overall, but Murphy significantly overperforming among those who have already voted or plan to vote early. Rubio had sizable leads among those who planned to vote on Election Day. The key for Republicans is ensuring that those votes actually come in, after months of fears that some regular GOP voters could stay home because they don’t like Trump.

AFP and the rest of the Koch brothers’ political network (which has stayed out of the presidential race) have been particularly concerned with making sure suburban and nonwhite Republicans vote down-ballot even if Trump has turned them off. The group says it has knocked on over 1 million doors in Florida in this election cycle, including in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods in Miami-Dade, which is Rubio’s base but is also expected to go heavily for Clinton.

One recent AFP block-walk traversed a neighborhood dotted with Rubio signs, but without such visible signs of support for the presidential candidates.

“I don’t even turn on the television anymore,” one woman told two Spanish-speaking AFP canvassers, complaining at length about both Trump and Clinton. But she was certain about one thing: She was backing Rubio.

An elderly man targeted by the canvassers, Miguel Perez, had a simpler reason for backing Rubio.

“Because he’s Cuban,” he said. “And he’s honest.”

But one woman, who gave her name as just Maria, was ready to move past Rubio, citing the incumbent’s desire to change the wet foot-dry foot policy that allows Cubans who make it to U.S. soil to stay with government assistance.

“He’s new,” she said when asked about Murphy. “I want to see what he can do.”

That’s as much as many voters know about Murphy, who has been defined more by GOP attack ads than by himself or allies this fall. But a stream of big Democratic names are pouring into Florida, helping Clinton — and by extension Murphy — energize and turn out the Democratic base, especially African-Americans and non-Cuban Hispanic voters.

President Barack Obama campaigned with Murphy for the second time in as many weeks Friday, and he has also benefited from visits from Clinton herself, Bill Clinton, Tim Kaine and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who helped Murphy roll out a criminal justice plan.

But these high-profile visits aren’t necessarily turning Murphy into a Democratic hero. Voters at Obama’s rally in Orlando on Friday also said they were going to back Murphy but acknowledged they knew little about him.

“I’m excited to get rid of Rubio,” said Russ Wagner, a retired city planner. He said he agreed with Murphy on the issues but didn’t know much about him. “Every guy can’t be a rock star,” he said.

In a heavily black neighborhood here in Miami Gardens, two canvassers with the union-backed For Our Future said voters were becoming more and more familiar with the Democratic Senate candidate. But here, too, voters were more eager to send Rubio home than to send Murphy to Washington.

“Didn’t [Rubio] end up endorsing Trump?” said Jedidiah Brown, who was sitting outside his house when a canvasser arrived. “I’m not with any of the Republicans. Rubio’s just like Trump, but 10 times worse.”

Linking Rubio to Trump’s racially divisive rhetoric is the exact message Democrats are pushing in minority communities. For Our Future’s office had signs declaring: “Rubio and Trump: The Bigot Ticket.”

Murphy’s attacks on Rubio have been one-third Trump-focused, one-third focused on Rubio missing votes and hearings while running for the presidency and one-third focused on Rubio’s future presidential ambitions. One Republican operative, who nonetheless expects Rubio to win, said Murphy’s mix of attacks on Rubio’s ambition fit into pre-existing narratives surrounding the GOP’s golden boy.

“There are lasting questions about his ambitions and why he wants the job. So with Trump, people think he’s making decisions based on pure politics,” said the operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid angering the senator. “Voters see Marco as ambitious and self-centered.”

Rubio’s team is attempting to turn the tables on Murphy by noting that his family’s construction company has done business with Trump, and by pointing out that Murphy, like Trump, has refused to release his tax returns.

And Republicans also continue to exploit Murphy’s own vulnerabilities. At a debate Wednesday night on the campus of Broward College, Rubio made the case against Murphy as best he could, portraying him as a do-little, knows-less congressman with honesty issues: “We’re too important a state to have a senator who doesn’t know how to get things done,” he said. He mocked Murphy’s attack lines as “a noun, a verb and Donald Trump.”

For his closing statement, Rubio began delivering the type of optimistic, patriotic messages that Republicans have fallen in love with.

“I know this has been an ugly campaign, not ours in particular, but in general,” he said. “I know this has been a difficult year, especially for young people, who are voting for the first time. But here’s the thing: We’re gonna be OK. We’re the greatest country in the world, and we’ll get through this election.”

The moderator cut him off. Rubio was out of time.