POLITICO London Playbook: Return of Project Fear — No. 10 Brexit grid leaks — May battling on

Press play to listen to this article Voiced by Amazon Polly

By JACK BLANCHARD

Send tips here | Subscribe for free | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser

Good Wednesday morning.

DRIVING THE DAY

RETURN OF ‘PROJECT FEAR’: Ministers will this morning publish the government’s first economic analysis of the impact of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in a bid to win back support from disgruntled MPs. The cross-government report has been coordinated by DExEU but heavily influenced by the Treasury, and will compare the economic impact of May’s deal with a range of alternative scenarios. Loyal ministers will flood the airwaves throughout the day to press the message that the deal would do far less economic damage than crashing out without one. Chancellor Philip Hammond has a broadcast round this morning; his junior minister, Mel Stride, is out and about at lunchtime; and an appearance in the Commons — possibly from Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay — looks certain, either via ministerial statement or urgent question. Expect howls of “Project Fear” from Hard Brexiteers who believe civil service forecasts are bunkum, and from Remainers who say they prove Britain would be better off if it stayed inside the EU.

So what’s in the report? The Telegraph’s Steven Swinford has the scoop on the headline stats. He reports the documents will say GDP will be 1 or 2 percent lower after 15 years of May’s deal than if Britain stayed inside the EU. By contrast, a no-deal scenario would leave GDP 7.6 percent lower — equivalent to £150 billion over 15 years. A Norway-style relationship would leave Britain 1.4 percent worse off, while a Canada-style free trade deal would leave GDP 4.9 percent down.

Just a thought: If these stats are right, it will allow the PM to make the case that her deal offers very similar economic benefits to a Norway-style deal, while ending free movement and “vast” EU budget payments. It’s a powerful message to sell to MPs — if anyone’s still listening; and if anyone believes her.

Definitely not believing her: Former Brexit Secretary David Davis, who is delivering a speech for the pro-Brexit “Economists for Free Trade” group at 10.30 a.m. entitled: “Treasury forecasts: Fact or fiction?” You probably don’t need to hear the speech to guess what his answer will be. His successor, Dominic Raab, tells the Telegraph that the analysis “looks like a rehash of Project Fear.”

Speaking of Brexit secretaries: Typo of the day goes to the Guardian, which on page 11 today rather wonderfully refers to “Steve Bartley, the virtually unknown new Brexit secretary …”

And there’s more: With remarkable timing, the Bank of England is also due to publish its own Brexit forecasts today. Following a request from the Commons Treasury committee, Governor Mark Carney will publish “an analysis of how the EU Withdrawal Agreement will affect our ability to deliver our statutory remits for monetary and financial stability, including in a ‘no deal, no transition’ scenario.” It’s due out at 4.30 p.m. Let’s hope the governor is ready for the barrage of Brexiteer abuse headed his way.

And while you’re waiting for all of that: POLITICO finance reporter Cat Contiguglia has spoken to a range of financial analysts and consultants in the City for their view on the real impact a no-deal Brexit would have on three key areas — economic growth, inflation and the value of sterling. Some experts are more optimistic than others, but taken together the picture is not a pretty one.

SCOOP — What’s going on here? Two sets of economic forecasts being published, finance ministers on the airwaves throughout the day … it’s almost as if this is “economy day” in the Downing Street PR grid. And, yes, that’s because it is. Happily, POLITICO has been shown a leaked copy of the media grid for selling May’s big deal to the public — not the leaked notes from a couple of weeks back, but the actual grid itself. Bordered in purple, the document has a green box at the top marked “top stories” with a subject for each day between now and the meaningful vote, each designed to promote a different aspect of May’s exit package.

This is the official No. 10 plan, as of Tuesday …

November 28: Economy

November 29: Security

November 30: International trade

December 1: Digital

December 2: The Brexit deal

December 3: Money

December 4: Immigration

December 5: Transport

December 6: Industrial strategy

December 7: Brexit for the whole U.K.

December 8: Consumers

December 9: [Blank]

December 10: Agriculture and fish

So that’s something for us all to look forward to. We already knew International Trade Secretary Liam Fox had his big speech on Friday because he’s been tweeting about it, and we now know the [Blank] day has been penciled in for the TV debate with Jeremy Corbyn. So the most interesting line is probably “immigration day” next Tuesday, which presumably is when the long-awaited white paper is finally going to be published. Or at least it was, before the grid leaked.

Having said that: The Sun’s Steve Hawkes reports the white paper could be delayed amid a fresh Cabinet row over its contents.

Speaking of leaked media grids: It’s official: Shinzō Abe has been activated. How can Downing Street possibly lose this vote now?

Definitely not speaking of leaked media grids: Is May’s director of comms Robbie Gibb, who is due to address The Enterprise Forum today.

MEANWHILE IN PARLIAMENT

BATTLING ON: Theresa May is off to Scotland this afternoon on the next leg of her Brexit Deal Victory Tour, but before that faces another grueling PMQs at noon. A quick glance at the order paper shows fate has not been kind to the prime minister, with five Labour MPs, two SNP MPs, three Tory Brexiteer rebels plus Lib Dem leader Vince Cable making up 11 of the first 12 names down for a backbench question. Throw in the inevitable Brexit barrage from Jeremy Corbyn and Ian Blackford, and it is shaping up to be another torrid afternoon at the dispatch box.

But but but: The hope inside Downing Street is that May’s ability to grimly weather the endless attacks from all sides is starting to work in her favor, at least as far as the public is concerned. By Playbook’s calculation the PM has already spent an extraordinary nine hours and 36 minutes at the dispatch box over the past fortnight, spread over three marathon Commons statements plus two extended PMQs sessions. Coupled with her U.K. tour and the ongoing media blitz, voters can’t fail to notice the PM is at least pulling out all the stops to get this deal through.

Speaking of the voters: There is some evidence the PR strategy is working. The Daily Mail goes big on a new Survation poll showing 52 percent of the public believe May’s deal is “not ideal but the best offer on the table,” compared with 19 percent who disagree. It also found voters narrowly want MPs to back the deal, by 41 percent to 38 percent. And interestingly it shows a clear majority of Tory voters do not want May to quit if she loses the Commons vote on December 11. The Mail splashes with the headline “So now will MPs listen?,” and also runs a full-page comment piece from star columnist Sarah Vine — who is married to Environment Secretary Michael Gove — on why she admires the PM for doggedly fighting on.

In less good news: Buried toward the bottom of the story are some significantly less positive stats for No. 10. Voters now massively support a second referendum on the final deal, by 48 percent to 34. And both a no-deal Brexit and remaining inside the EU were far more popular than May’s deal.

In even less good news: The Sun’s front page carries the direst warning yet about the deal’s prospects, with Political Editor Tom Newton Dunn predicting May could lose by a staggering 200 votes. He has been told “almost all” the Cabinet now believe she is facing certain defeat on December 11, and that some ministers are now considering asking her to pull the vote.

Disconnect: The disconnect between these sorts of Cabinet predictions and the mood inside Downing Street is vast, with some of May’s closest advisers still insisting two weeks is enough time to win MPs round. Whips are bullish that the vote can yet be won, if not on the first attempt then on the second (or even the third). But a Cabinet minister tells TND: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No. 10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down.”

Sometimes it feels like everyone’s against you: Check out today’s Matt cartoon.

This won’t help: Playbook hears the all-important program motion on the meaningful vote is likely to be published today — and that the PM has backed down in her battle to stop it being amended by opposing MPs. A deal has been struck with Labour that will allow the motion to be amended in the usual way, ahead of the main vote on the deal. (Bloomberg’s Rob Hutton has heard the same.) It means opposing MPs may try to tack conditions onto the meaningful vote that would potentially change the course of Brexit, such as a second referendum, a closer Norway-style deal or a looser free trade arrangement. And while the clerk of the House has said these would not be legally binding on the government, it would be pretty damn tough to just ignore.

So what happens next? The problem for both Hard Brexiteers and anti-Brexit campaigners is it looks like there is currently no majority in parliament for their proposals either. As the Guardian’s Heather Stewart reports, Jeremy Corbyn’s office has no love for a Norway-style deal, and remains opposed to a second referendum — for the time being at least. Anti-Brexit campaigners are currently locked in discussions about the best time to make their moves.

Speaking of second referendums: ITV’s Robert Peston put the cat among the pigeons yesterday with a Facebook blog suggesting Corbyn will “formally make his party the champion of another referendum” in the days after May loses the meaningful vote. Labour then briefed Business Insider that this was not the case. But from conversations with senior Labour officials and shadow Cabinet ministers over recent days, Playbook’s best guess is that Labour is very much moving in this direction. “There are a series of steps we have to go through,” one party official says, referring to first the meaningful vote and then the big push for a general election. “But you can see we are going through them, and I think in the end we are going to get there.”

And there’s more: Inside Jeremy Corbyn’s office there is little desire to back a second referendum, but a grudging acceptance that circumstance — plus overwhelming pressure from Labour supporters — may well push the party into that position. One senior official confirmed initial work is underway on how Labour might try to sell Corbyn’s support for a “People’s Vote” to skeptical Brexit-backing Labour voters. But privately aides speak angrily about the People’s Vote campaigners, who “don’t seem to understand this would actually hurt our electoral chances.”

Having said all that: Most Labour insiders believe that even if Corbyn does come out in support for a second referendum, around 20 Labour MPs would refuse to support him — meaning there would still be no majority to carry it through. Addressing the U.K. in a Changing Europe think tank last night, Labour MP Caroline Flint — who represents a heavily pro-Leave constituency — said the same. “I do think there probably are a number of MPs across parties, but including my own, who are very concerned [about the impact of another vote],” she said. “I don’t think it would even get to a second referendum, I have to say. I don’t think there’s a majority for a second referendum, including on our side.”

Still on the fence: Flint also revealed she has not yet decided which way she will vote on December 11. “My biggest fear in all of this was helping a no-deal Brexit,” she said. “People say there isn’t a majority in parliament for a no deal, but the problem is … by default there could be a no deal. You could therefore just give what the hardliner Leavers want.” And Flint did not rule out supporting the deal. “[May] is so isolated at the moment, that to be honest I’m going to see what happens over the next five days, six days,” she said.

Ones to watch: POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson has pinpointed the 12 “bellwether” MPs to keep an eye on in the run-up to the big Brexit vote. More here for our Brexit Pro subscribers.

And then the next big battle: BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham has yet another Downing Street leak (it’s almost as if it’s not an entirely happy ship over there), this time gaming out possible scenarios for the government’s next big fight if it does eventually win the meaningful vote. The Withdrawal Agreement Bill (previously the WAIB, now rechristened as the WAB) will be laid before parliament in January, and is the legislation that enshrines the Brexit treaty into U.K. law. It’s going to be another almighty parliamentary tussle, with MPs on all sides laying down awkward amendments designed to reshape or scupper Brexit. Wickham’s leak shows — in fabulous detail — how individual Cabinet ministers have been asked to prepare for 57 different scenarios in which backbench MPs try to make life difficult for the government.

Today’s Brexit diary: Environment Secretary Michael Gove discusses Brexit preparations before the Commons environment committee at 9.30 a.m. … Business chiefs from firms and lobby groups including Airbus and the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry appear at two separate hearings of the Commons business committee, at 9.15 a.m. and 2.35 p.m. … Trade Minister George Hollingbery is before the Commons international trade committee at 10 a.m. to discuss the impact of the Brexit deal … And TUC boss Frances O’Grady speaks at the IfG tonight on how to make a successful Brexit.

Bored of Brexit? The Daily Star certainly is, splashing with a plea to Theresa May to “forget about boring old Brexit” and join its campaign to free Sally Metcalfe, a character in Coronation Street who was wrongly jailed for fraud this week. Hopefully someone can raise it with May at PMQs today.

Not raising it at PMQs: Jeremy Corbyn, who is very much an EastEnders addict.

Speaking of TV: Labour has a winning plan for the Brexit TV debate schedule crisis, the Guardian’s Heather Stewart reports. The party wants an hour-long head-to-head debate between May and Corbyn on ITV on Sunday December 9, in the primetime slot before the finale of “I’m a Celebrity.”

And speaking of ‘I’m a Celebrity’: Disgraced DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr tells the Mail diary he was offered over £100,000 to take part in the show this year — but turned it down because his wife wouldn’t let him.

Sorry about that: Donald Trump’s ambassador to the U.K. has an interestingly timed op-ed in the Times today that appears to be trying to build bridges after the president’s recent attack on the Brexit deal. “The president has always said that Brexit is for the British people to decide, but as he made clear again this week, he hopes there will be room for an ambitious trade deal with the United States,” Woody Johnson writes. “We are the perfect partners. We have already forged one of the most successful economic partnerships in global history.”

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Commons sits from 11.30 a.m. with half an hour of Scotland questions.

OFFENSIVE WEAPONS: Tonight’s drama in the Commons will be over the Offensive Weapons Bill, with the government having pulled a plan to ban high velocity rifles amid a DUP and Tory rebellion. Expect a fair old row tonight, although there’s no indication the government will actually lose the vote.

LABOUR PAY SHAKE-UP: The Guardian splashes on a radical new report commissioned by Labour that suggests customers of Britain’s biggest companies should be given the right to vote on the pay of their top executives. No word yet on whether Labour will formally back the plan.

DON’T CALL US: It will come as a surprise to almost no one that government departments are not especially keen to be phoned by angry citizens. Tom Loosemore, deputy director of the Government Digital Service until 2015, told the Commons science committee yesterday he had had “huge arguments” with departments that wanted to hide their phone numbers on their websites “so no one finds it.” He also discovered, to his horror, an “overenthusiastic” minister at the department for work and pensions who made one of its services online-only. Sadly he didn’t name and shame. Full clip here.

WHAT EVERYONE IS LAUGHING/SOBBING AT: This clip of then-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson trying to speak French to an utterly bewildered FCO official.

CABINET ROW: The Times has a nice story about an angry row between Home Secretary Sajid Javid and Justice Secretary David Gauke over how to tackle rising knife crime. Javid, the story reveals, wants to introduce ASBO-style “knife prevention orders,” which would see young people jailed for a breach. But the paper says Gauke has blocked the plan, and a Whitehall source adds: “This is about Sajid grandstanding on knife crime.”

MEDIA ROUND

Chancellor Philip Hammond broadcast round: BBC Breakfast tbc … Sky Sunrise 7.35 a.m. … LBC Radio 7.50am … Today program (8.10 a.m.).

Also on the Today Program: Commons European scrutiny committee Chairman Bill Cash (6.50 a.m.) … Former Downing Street Director of Legislative Affairs Nikki da Costa (7.09 a.m.) … Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, deputy PM of Ukraine (7.20 a.m.) … SNP leader in Westminster Ian Blackford (7.30 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC Radio: Tory MPs Vicky Ford and Owen Paterson debate Brexit (7.05 a.m.).

All Out Politics (Sky News (10 a.m.): Tory MP Stephen Kerr on Theresa May’s visit to Scotland (10.10 a.m.) … The Telegraph’s Associate Editor Camilla Tominey and Guardian columnist Rachel Shabi review the newspaper comment sections (10.15 a.m.) … Former Digital Debate Campaign chief Chris Birkett, former Cameron aide Nick Pisani and former Green Party leader Natalie Bennett discuss the pros and cons of leaders’ debates (10.30 a.m.) … Guardian cartoonist Steve Bell (10.45 a.m.).

The Emma Barnett Show (BBC Radio 5 Live, 10 a.m.): Former Chancellor and Tory peer Nigel Lawson (10.10 a.m.) … MPs’ panel with former Cabinet Minister John Whittingdale, Labour MP Alison McGovern and SNP MP Philippa Whitford (11 a.m.) … Post-PMQs analysis with the FT’s Political Editor George Parker and the Times’ Political Correspondent Henry Zeffman (12.40 p.m.).

Politics Live (BBC2, 11.15 a.m.): Treasury Minister Mel Stride … Former Cabinet Minister Priti Patel … Labour MP Stephen Kinnock … Shadow Security Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds … City A.M. Editor Christian May … The Guardian’s Pippa Crerar.

Sky News PMQs panel (11.50 a.m.): Joining Political Editor Faisal Islam are … Tory MP Mark Francois … Labour MP James Frith … SNP MP Philippa Whitford.

Iain Dale in the Evening (LBC Radio): Cross Question panel (8 p.m.) with Tory MP Keith Simpson … Labour MP Gavin Shuker … Former government adviser Louise Casey … Former Corbyn spinner Matt Zarb-Cousin.

Peston (Live on Twitter 8 p.m.; ITV1 10.45 p.m.): Business Secretary Greg Clark … Commons Brexit committee Chairman Hilary Benn … Former Brexit Minister Suella Braverman … Rap artist Professor Green.

Reviewing the papers tonight: BBC News (10.45 p.m. & 11.30 p.m.): HuffPost’s head of news Jess Brammar and broadcaster Aasmah Mir … Sky News (10.30 p.m. & 11.30 p.m.): The Daily Mirror’s Associate Editor Kevin Maguire and the Daily Mail’s Consultant Editor Andrew Pierce.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)

City A.M.: Thomas Cooked — Travel firm blames U.K. summer scorcher for share price plunge.

Daily Express: Scandal of rapist given rights over victim’s child.

Daily Mail: Poll reveals Britons back May’s deal — So now will MPs listen?



Daily Mirror: Harry and Meg’s £5M new home security bill.

Daily Star: Save our Sally.

Financial Times: Danske scandal spurs crackdown on misuse of limited partnerships.



HuffPost U.K.: All systems Gove — Brexiteer deployed as May’s “secret weapon” to sell deal to Tory MPs.

i: Tech giants in the dock.

Metro: Too late to save trapped toddler.

The Daily Telegraph: The Brexit backpedaling begins.

The Guardian: Labour plan to give customers of big firms vote on boardroom pay.

The Independent: U.N. — Slash emissions by five times current target.

The Sun: Royal exclusive — Meghan made Kate cry.

The Times: Rotherham rape victim reveals new care scandal.



On the Continent: Read what the rest of Europe’s papers are saying in POLITICO’s EU press review blog here (updated daily at around 8 a.m.).

BEYOND THE M25

From Wales

TAKING THE STAND: Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones gives evidence today at the inquest of his former colleague Carl Sargeant. The Guardian’s Steven Morris has the latest from the inquest here.

From Spain

RISE OF THE RIGHT: Upstart right-wingers Ciudadanos are on course to double their seats in this weekend’s Andalusian election. POLITICO’s Guy Hedgecoe has more from Spain’s Deep South. “Ciudadanos enters this contest not only hoping to unseat the Socialists (PSOE), who have governed Andalusia for nearly 40 years, but also determined to assert its dominance in Spain’s increasingly crowded political right,” he writes.

From across Europe

PUTIN IN CONTROL: Europe’s collective response to Vladimir Putin’s latest act of aggression against Ukraine has been feeble, POLITICO’s Matthew Karnitschnig reports.

From Beijing

ROLLING OUT THE RED CARPET: David and Samantha Cameron have been awarded a lavish reception on a trip to China, the Times reports today. “Mr. Cameron was pictured alongside the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, yesterday after Vogue China had hosted an official banquet for his wife, Samantha,” the paper writes. “It is unusual for Chinese leaders to receive former Western politicians in an official capacity.”

LONDON CALLING

Westminster weather: 🌧🌧🌧 It’s basically going to rain all day, with highs of 13C. Grim.



Travel: No Southeastern and Thameslink trains at St Mary Cray until about 8 a.m. More details here.

Spotted: Plenty of politicos at last night’s Political Cartoon of the Year Awards, held at St John’s on Smith Square in Westminster, including … Former Brexit Secretary David Davis … Commons home affairs committee Chairwoman Yvette Cooper … Tory Whip Craig Whittaker … Loads and loads of cartoonists, including the Yorkshire Post’s Graeme Bandeira and wife Karen … Telegraph types Asa Bennett and Daniel Capurro … ex-UKIP legend Gawain Towler … Sunday Mirror Deputy Political Editor Keir Mudie … Hanover’s Emma Dean … HuffPost’s Ned Simons … IPSO boss Matt Tee … E!Sharp’s Paul Adamson … Business Insider Political Editor Adam Bienkov … Former Javid SpAd Nick King … Freelance journo David Hencke … and many more.

Winner: Congratulations to the Times’ Peter Brookes on winning first prize for this cartoon of Boris Johnson as a Eurovision winner. Brookes thanked guest presenter David Davis for the award, “but not for Brexit,” which he described as the worst political event of his lifetime.

Also putting the boot in: Labour’s Yvette Cooper, who has a stern message for the prime minister. “Theresa May thinks that by dancing, she can go from long-suffering MP to national treasure,” Cooper said. “Well, Theresa — I know Ed Balls. I married Ed Balls … and you are no Ed Balls.”

And if you want some more Brookes: This today on Donald Trump is just gold.

And if you want some more awards: Also handing out the gongs last night was the Political Studies Association, which represents political academics across the U.K. It’s fair to say their choices were … somewhat Remain-heavy. Parliamentarian of the Year was Tory Remainer rebel Dominic Grieve … Journalist of the Year was won jointly by the Observer’s Carole Cadwalladr and the Guardian’s Amelia Gentleman … Backbencher of the Year was Labour MP Diana Johnson, for her work on the tainted blood scandal … Politician of the Year was Labour MP David Lammy, for his work on the Windrush scandal … Best Use of Evidence went to Tory MP Tracey Crouch, for her work on FOBTs … Broadcaster of the Year was the BBC’s Europe Editor Katya Adler … and the International Recognition Award went to, erm, Michel Barnier, for handling the negotiations with Britain in a “cool, consistent and rational manner.” Yes, really. Sadly Barnier could not be there in person to collect his gong from host Jon Snow of Channel 4 News, but sent a warm message of thanks. The Mail on Sunday’s Harry Cole captured the moment on video, accompanied by his own incredulous laughter.

Aaaand tonight’s awards event: Is the Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year awards.

Happy birthday to: Transport Minister Andrew Jones … Brexit Minister Chris Heaton-Harris … Blackpool South MP Gordon Marsden … Labour peer and former Chancellor Alistair Darling … Lib Dem Head of Media Rosy Cobb … Tom Goldsmith, principal clerk of select committees at the House of Commons … “The Thick of it” creator Armando Iannucci … Former Tory MP Dennis Walters … French Prime Minister Edouard Phillippe … Latvian Prime Minister Māris Kučinski.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | EU Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | D.C. Playbook | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters