If you’ve been following virtual reality, you may have recently read an article explaining the “disappointing” numbers for VR’s first year sales. The narrative goes something like this: 2016 VR headset sales were supposed to be X millions large…. instead they only sold Z millions… is VR a fad? Although there has undoubtedly been a fair amount of hype (and overhype) of virtual reality technology, VR is real and 2016 was not only successful, but its breakout year.

Regardless of your opinion of the official sales numbers, 2016 was the year VR became legitimized. Whether or not you own a VR headset, you almost undoubtedly have heard of the technology. A few years ago if you told people you were a freelance virtual reality designer, people would have assumed you were either a genius or a lunatic.

Today people get it, and whether or not they use VR regularly, they most likely see the potential for the future.

In terms of technological development, AR has lagged just behind it’s virtual cousin. We are right at that tipping point where most people still do not know what augmented reality is or what it could be used for. As excited as I am for AR development in 2017, I believe the true breakout year for AR will occur in 2018 due to four main characteristics. These traits/occurrences defined VR’s 2016 and, I believe, will soon describe AR’s 2018.

1. Release of 1st Generation Consumer Headsets

Last year became the much anticipated “year of VR” in large part due to the consumer release of Facebook’s Oculus, HTC’s Vive, and the PlayStation VR. These three headsets set the high-end standard for the industry and opened up the potential for a myriad of developers and entrepreneurs to explore and create.

Prior to the release of these consumer facing devices, VR was possible, but not easily accessible for the majority of people. Now you can walk into your local Best Buy and pick up one of these bad boys just as easily as you could buy a laptop.

High-End VR Headsets

Arguably even more meaningful to VR’s 2016 was the proliferation of low-end devices. The Samsung Gear VR and Google Cardboard offered smartphone powered experiences for under $100. Although neither is nearly as powerful as an Oculus or Vive, they helped to expose millions more people to VR experiences.

Despite more people acquiring one of these low-end headsets than acquiring a high-end device, it was really the release of all of them together that made the year so explosive. The high-end devices showed off VR’s successful use cases while the low-end devices introduced people to the concept.

In 2018 we are likely to see AR follow a similar path. Right now the three leaders in augmented reality headsets are Microsoft, Meta, and Magic Leap. Currently, Microsoft and Meta offer development versions of their headsets for $3,000 and $1,000 respectively while Magic Leap has yet to release any version of their future product.

At the moment, it looks like Microsoft and Meta will use 2017 to let developers experiment with their products while they take time to miniaturize their components in preparation for a later consumer launch.

These consumer products could very likely come to fruition in 2018 making the HoloLens, Meta, and Magic Leap headsets the Rift, Vive, and PlayStation VR of augmented reality. These high-end options will most likely cost north of $1,000 and still be particularly bulky, but they will display the incredible potential of quality AR.

Microsoft HoloLens and Meta 2

In addition to the high-end similarities, there will also be similarities in the low-end of the market. Similar to the Gear VR, companies will be able to use a smartphone to create lower fidelity AR experiences. Leaders in this area have yet to arise, but once the high-end headsets become available, these smartphone-based AR headsets will appear.

The experiences will not be nearly as good as the high-end headsets (likely not including much computer vision), but they will be good enough to peak people’s interests and expose them to the incredible potential of AR.

2. Limited Consumer Use Cases Outside Gaming

Although the ultimate VR vision includes possibilities across multiple industries, its biggest market this past year was in gaming. High-end headsets offered new, immersive gaming experiences that allowed gamers to play in a whole new way. All of a sudden, people could play point-of-view military shooters and actually feel like they were holding the gun.

Gamers were okay wearing a huge computer on their faces because it was done in the comfort of their living rooms. Outside of gaming though, the social isolation inherent in VR became an issue. Gamers loved 1st generation VR headsets, but outside of the gaming world consumer use cases were more rare.

This will be comparable to what we see in 2018 with AR. The incredible potential of AR is that we all one day spend the majority of our days using AR-enabled contact lenses or sleek glasses.

As optimistic as I am about the technology, we will not be seeing that vision quite yet. Instead, most consumer AR use in 2018 will come in gaming or entertainment. It will be fun to shoot ghosts popping out of your walls or watch the Super Bowl on a projected big screen, but it most likely won’t make sense to wear a headset on a Saturday stroll through the park just yet.

Gaming with HoloLens

3. Successful Business Use Cases

Despite limited consumer use cases for VR, there have been a fair amount of successful industrial and B2B use cases. For example, STRIVR Labs sells virtual reality training solutions to professional sports organizations. The Dallas Cowboys are one of the multiple NFL teams that utilize STRIVR technology to teach their athletes new plays. Another example is MindMaze which has successfully used VR to lessen the effects of mental illnesses.

In AR, we don’t even have to wait until 2018 to already witness this type of activity. The DAQRI smart helmet is being used in industrial warehouses, police officers in the Netherlands have used something similar to Google Glass, and the HoloLens is being used for elevator repair. While Magic Leap and Meta work to create a sleeker product that the masses can accept, AR in 2018 will be widespread in areas where functionality is valued more than style.

Daqri Smart Helmet

4. Widespread Awareness

To recap the first three points:

— By 2018, AR will have both high-end and low-end consumer devices.

— These devices will be used by consumers primarily for at-home entertainment

— Many successful industrial use cases will arise

The combination of these three instances leads to the final and most important similarity between 2016 VR and 2018 AR: everyone knows what it is.

Just like VR, by 2018, AR will be really fun to use at home, and actually useful to use in other areas. This combo will lead to press coverage and press coverage will lead to awareness.

Whether or not you decide to invest in an AR headset in 2018, it will be impossible to avoid hearing about them. There will be a major increase in AR promotions from Fortune 500 companies while hundreds of smaller AR dev studios will continue to pop up. Whether or not you think AR is ready for the primetime, this spotlight will invariably help the technology develop as the increased awareness leads to increased investment and subsequently better products.

Two years from today we will not yet have realized the AR dream. People will not be wearing AR glasses religiously, but they will be wearing them sometimes. And that’s a big deal.