The 91st Academy Awards are up this weekend and the conversation is open. The frontrunners are relishing their chance while a couple of underdogs may be fancying an upset. I’ve said this before, but this year’s Oscars are lacking in excitement. There are a few x factors here and there that could turn the tides in certain directions, but overall most of the prizes have already been determined, and honestly the films this year aren’t simply that great. I mean last year it was also very predictable, but there were some very strong films in the running that made it interesting to root for those. Either way, predicting is a huge part of the fun, and that’s why we’re here. Before I start though I want to mention how funny it is that the Academy announced they wouldn’t be broadcasting the awards for cinematography, editing, make up and live action short and instead hand them out during commercial break, but then everybody was against this decision so they backed down from that, just like they did before with the proposed Best Popular Film category. Anyway, that being said, let’s jump right into it.

Best Cinematography: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma – there’s no doubt here. I might not be as big on Roma as other people, but the one prize I would never question if it went to the film is this one.

Best Visual Effects: Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick, Infinity War – the biggest blockbuster of the year, cutting edge CGI, just think of the work they did on Thanos. I guess it could also go in Ready PLayer One‘s direction, but I really think this one belongs to Marvel.

Best Editing: Hank Corwin, Vice – its pretty unique in the way it is cut, though that doesn’t necessarily make it the better film in this regard. It seems that many people believe it could be Bohemian Rhapsody, but if that were the case I’d be really disappointed.

Best Sound Mixing: Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis, First Man – I’m really unsure about this one, it could also go in Bohemian Rhapsody‘s way, or maybe even Roma if its poised for a major sweep, so expect anything.

Best Sound Editing: Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl, A Quiet Place – I would really like to see this happen, and I think there’s a good chance it will, but don’t count out Roma or First Man.

Best Production Design: Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite – sadly one of the few awards this film has an actual shot at winning. The academy has a soft spot for period pieces in this category, but there’s a chance Black Panther could snatch it.

Best Costume Design: Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther – its either this one or Production Design, don’t see Ryan Coogler’s film winning much more than that. Then again, The Favourite could show up here as well.

Best Make Up and Hairstyling: Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney, Vice – just look at Christian Bale and tell me the work isn’t impressive. There’s no real competition in this category.

Best Original Score: Nichollas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk – to tell the truth I haven’t seen this film, nor have I heard the score, but I understand it has a lot of supporters, especially in this area. After it got shut out from the major prizes, maybe this will be given to them as a “consolation”(?)

Best Original Song: “Shallow”, Lady Gaga, A Star is Born – is there even room to doubt it? Though if it were up to me, I’d choose “When a Cowboy Trades his Boots for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

Best Documentary Feature: Again, I haven’t watched a single nominee this year, sadly, but it seems that Free Solo is going to win.

Now I’ll go into the remainder categories a little bit further, talk a little about what I thought about the nominees and rank them.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Haven’t seen: Capernaum (Nadine Labaki), Never Look Away (Florian von Donnersmarck)

3. Cold War (Poland, Pawel Pawilkowski): a great love story with musical elements, shot with impressive black and white cinematography and boasting excellent, subdued performances from its two leads.

2. Roma (Mexico, Alfonso Cuarón): a technical masterpiece and the frontrunner to take every prize out there (including this one). Really loved the movie, how it looks, how it feels, the humane story behind it, but I kind of feel its being somewhat overhyped (I’ll talk more about it a bit later).

1. Shoplifters (Japan, Hirokazu Kore-eda): like the previous nominee it is also a very humane story, but shot on a smaller scale, and I feel that exactly that reason is what made me relate more to the characters in Shoplifters than the ones in Roma.

Prediction: it will be Roma for sure, unless the Academy decides to give it to another film since its already getting Best Picture, in that case I’d say it goes to Cold War, since they nominated Pawilkoswki as well, but I really don’t think that will happen.

Snubbed: Ciro Guerra’s Pájaros de Verano.

Best Animated Feature:

5. Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird): it was a nice sequel with some interesting ideas, but it doesn’t really match up to the greatness of the original.

4. Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda): a really beautiful story told in a very interesting way, all carried through wonderful animation. Wish this would be higher since it was so great, but somehow it doesn’t feel particularly memorable.

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston) – I wasn’t expecting to like this sequel as much as I did, I thought I would like The Incredibles 2 more, and yet it was Ralph who delivered the better return to his world.

2. Spider Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Persichetti, Ramsay, Rothman): the animated darling of the year, definitely one of the best superhero outings of 2018, one that is on a league of its own in aesthetic terms. It has a nice story, but people were making it out to be groundbreaking narrative wise, and I’m not sure if that’s true. Its still gonna win though.

1. Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson): I firmly believe that stop motion animation is the best medium for Anderson’s peculiar aesthetic. This has been one of my favourite films of last year since its release in spring, and I would really like to see it win the award, alas it is not gonna happen.

Prediction: its gonna be Into the Spider Verse without a doubt.

Best Original Screenplay:

5. Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly): its got some old fashioned charm and I can see why many older members of the academy would get behind it, but it doesn’t bring much new to the table nor does it seem to make a strong enough statement about what it is trying to say.

4. Vice (Adam McKay): handles its subject manner in a pretty original way, yet I don’t think the script is the film’s strongest suit.

3. Roma (Alfonso Cuarón): beautiful, moving story that captures the intricate dynamics between its main character and the context in which she lives in. The screenplay is great, but Roma‘s true greatness lies in its technical areas.

2. First Reformed (Paul Schrader): the film that finally got Schrader nominated. A film anchored by its central character, who it deconstructs and puts in great mental and spiritual turmoil, all captured perfectly within Schrader’s powerful script.

1. The Favourite (Deborah Davies, Tony McNamara): the wittiest, meanest and most outrageously funny script of last year. The film is unfortunately getting shut out for most awards, so screenplay might be its one true shot.

Prediction: The Favourite. It could also be Roma again, though I doubt that, but I guess Green Book stands a chance if they’re actually gonna go with that one for Best Picture, and then there’s the chance that they simply give it to Schrader as a recognition to his life’s work. Still, I’m going with Davies’ and McNamara’s script.

Snubbed: Sorry to Bother You, Isle of Dogs, A Quiet Place, Hereditary, Searching.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Haven’t seen: If Beale Street Could Talk, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. A Star is Born ( Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters): didn’t hate it as much as I thought I would. The script is pretty solid, perhaps nothing we’ve never seen before, but it manages to transmit its story very effectively.

2. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel and Ethan Coen): an anthology of western shorts, each one its own brand of unique. Maybe not among the best works the Coens have written, but it surely is great in its own right and among this group of nominees.

1. BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee & Kevin Wilmott and Charlie Wachten & David Rabionowitz): the film has great balance of tone, and consedering how quick it changes from comedic to overtly dramatic within seconds and still somehow feels organic that is no easy feat.

Prediction: BlacKkKlansman, though I guess Beale Street could take it as well, but I haven’t seen that one so I don’t have much to say about that. And I wouldn’t rule out A Star is Born either.

Snubbed: Annihilation, Death of Stalin, Suspiria, You Were Never Really Here.

Best Supporting Actor:

Haven’t seen: Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Sam Rockwell, Vice: last year’s winner playing former US president George W. Bush is really something, in fact once I learned Rockwell was playing Bush the appeal to watch the film grew on me. That being said, it isn’t Rockwell’s best performance, and we all know he’s capabale of more.

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman: probably the best performer of a film with great performances, Driver certainly deserves the nomination. The win, on the other hand, is a completely different matter. He’s a great actor and he’ll probably end up winning some day in the future, just not for this film.

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book: the definite frontrunner, Ali delivers an excellent and very Oscar-baity performance. He’s most likely gonna win his second Oscar in three years, and while he did a terrific job, I was more impressed with co-star Viggo’s performance, and frankly it just isn’t as good as his role in Moonlight.

1. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born: he has very limited screen time, but he steals the show in every scene he is in, and considering he has to share the screen with Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga that is no easy feat. Then there’s the fact that this great actor has never won an Oscar, yet the academy doesn’t seem interested in correcting this.

Prediction: Mahershala Ali, obviously. Though to be honest, this category seems kind of weak this year, considering this one is usually one of the most contended.

Snubbed: Bruno Ganz (The House that Jack Built), Steven Yeun (Burning), Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite), Liam Neeson (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Best Supporting Actress:

Haven’t seen: Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Marina de Tavira, Roma: the surprise nominee, and certainly a feat well earned. I’d argue her performance wasn’t as engaging as that from co-star Yalitza Aparicio, which was the center pull of the movie, but de Tavira does an excellent job in her somewhat limited role and it is a joy to see the academy recognizing her talent.

3. Amy Adams, Vice: it is about time that Adams, one of the best actresses of her generation, finally takes home the statue. Its not gonna happen though, sadly, but to tell the truth she’s been ignored before for better roles than her turn in Vice.

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite: also a recent winner, her role in Lanthimos’ film is however something we’ve never seen from the young actress before. If after 2016’s La la Land you weren’t convinced by Stone’s acting talent, look no further than this dark surreal comedy about royal intrigue.

1. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite: I’ve been back and forth between these two ladies of The Favourite, at first I thought Weisz should take the award, then upon a rewatch I was more on Stone’s side, but now I’m back to Weisz again. Her performance is immense and subdued at the same time, I would really like to see her win.

Prediction: it will most likely be Regina King. I haven’t watched the film so I can’t say if its deserved or not, but it will probably go her way. On the other hand, Weisz did win the BAFTA a few weeks ago, and that makes the momentum turn slightly towards her. Still, expect King to win, though I’d be happy if it went in the other direction.

Snubbed: Tilda Swinton (Suspiria), Jennifer Jason Leigh (Annihilation), Tessa Thompson (Sorry to Bother You)

Best Leading Actor:

Haven’t seen: Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate (though strangely enough I do want him to win).

4. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born: Cooper does a very decent job here, and considering he had to direct as well it is quite the feat. He just isn’t as impressive as the other contenders to tell the truth, but I guess the nomination was well deserved.

3. Christian Bale, Vice: at one point seemed to be the frontrunner, and a second Oscar for Bale seems to be in the cards every other year, but ends up being eclipsed by another contender. His physical transformation garnered lots of attention, something we’ve already become accostumed to with the actor. Could still win, but its rather unlikely.

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody: it seems that nothing can stop Rami Malek from winning the statue (he was the sole redeeming quality of the film after all, bar of course the soundtrack), and I would be really happy for him since he is a great actor and is finally getting the praise he deserves. Though I think Adelle from YouTube channel RollCredits said it best: he nails the performance, but somehow it doesn’t come across as natural.

1. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book: I don’t want Viggo to win if I tell you the truth, mainly because the film for which he is competing. I would rather see Malek or Dafoe take the award, but on performance value alone, the actor that impressed me the most among the nominees was Mortensen.

Prediction: it seemed impossible a couple of months back, but now it seems impossible that anyone other than Malek wins it. I’d be very happy for the Mr. Robot star, though I would really like to see Dafoe finally getting his Oscar. Its gonna be Rami either way.

Snubbed: Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really There), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Matt Dillon (The House that Jack Built), Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You).

Best Leading Actress:

Haven’t seen: Glenn Close in The Wife, Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born: even with all the praise, I wasn’t expecting Lady Gaga to be that good, I honestly thought it was because of her popularity, but truth be told I was really impressed by her performance, I’d say she was even better than Cooper. Regardless, she’s a long way from being the best actress from the nominees.

2. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma: I’m pretty sure Aparicio is living a fairy tale right now. A non-actress who gets cast by Cuarón because of her physical resemblance to his nanny as he grew up, but beyond just having the look she also transmits the warmth and empathy required for such a role, and now she’s nominated for an Oscar in the film that has every chance of winning practically everything. A fairy tale come true.

1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Colman delivered what is probably the very best performance of 2018. She embodies the multiple facets of her complicated character, and even if she has to share the screen with previous Oscar winners such as Weisz and Stone, her presence is towering and completely steals the show.

Prediction: it seems that Glenn Close is finally getting her Oscar, and considering her career it is about time. I haven’t seen the film however, and I would be really pleased if Colman did win it. She snatched the BAFTA earlier this month, so who knows?

Snubbed: Toni Colette (Hereditary), Viola Davis (Widows)

Best Director:

5. Adam McKay, Vice: McKay always brings something radical to the table in the way he tells his stories (or he has since The Big Short), and it is certainly interesting to see his take on the Bush administration. The film does feel as if it thinks its way too smart, perhaps even smarter than it actually is, evidenced by the mid-credits scene (though I do enjoy a good jab at the Fast and Furious franchise), and that might be McKay’s undoing.

4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman: he should’ve already won an Academy Award, maybe even more than once. To think that this is his first nomination is truly strange, and that might be the reason why the academy ends up giving him the award if they’re to go that way. I don’t think so, but he probably stands a better chance than most of the other nominees.

3. Pawel Pawilkowski, Cold War: I wasn’t expecting to see him in the list of nominees, but I’m certainly glad that it is the case. Might be the first time three of the five nominated directors are foreign, what could mean the beginning of a less US-centric period for the academy. As for Pawilkowski and his film, it captures a simple beauty that most other can’t, all due to the very personal story behind it.

2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma: he definitely delivers a marvel to look at, a film so expertly crafted and executed with so much care that its no surprise that he is the frontrunner. At this point nothing can’t stop him in picking up his second Oscar, marking the fifth time the award goes to a mexican director in the last six years.

1. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite: its no secret I loved this film, I’ve been a Lanthimos fan for a while now, and this one might be his best work yet (with the exception of Dogtooth perhaps). He doesn’t stand much chance at winning, but his achievement in balancing a genre period piece with art house sensibilities anchored by great performances and outstanding technical level in each area should not be ignored.

Prediction: its gonna be Cuarón, obviously, though there’s still the chance that the academy honours Spike Lee instead. The DGA went in Cuarón’s way though, and that is usually a good sign.

Snubbed: Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)!!!, Lars von Trier (The House that Jack Built)

Best Picture:

8. Bohemian Rhapsody: I know I’m not saying anything new here, but this film had only two good elements, one is Rami Malek’s great performance, the other one is Queen’s soundtrack, which of course isn’t a merit of the film itself. I liked the movie as popcorn entertainment, but it is bland, cheesy, uninspired, by the numbers, and it doesn’t tell a fair depiction of the real life story behind it. Definitely shouldn’t be up there.

7. Green Book: a movie about why racism is bad, in case we needed a reminder of that. Beyond the two leads there isn’t anything outstanding. There are a few moments here and there, but the story is very cheesy and unoriginal. This is as Oscar baity as we get this year, which is sad because if Roma doesn’t win this one probably stands the best chances.

6. Black Panther: the first superhero movie to ever be nominated for Best Picture, something that I as a superhero/comic book fan find really annoying. It is pretty good for Marvel standards though and it deals with some interesting issues, albeit superficially, and has one of the best villains of the MCU. Some of the side characters are way underdeveloped and the third act is really bland, but it is still better than other nominees. Gotta say, it is up there because of the conversation surrounding it rather than on its own merit.

5. Vice: an interesting approach to the political atmosphere surrounding the war on terror and the events that lead up to it. I’m not from the USA so I don’t feel particularly compelled by the issues presented, though I’d say that because of that I can see it from a more neutral perspective. McKay employs the same formula he used in The Big Short to great effect, and while it doesn’t live up to that film’s wittiness it does provide an interesting frame for a real life subject matter.

4. A Star is Born: going into this one I was expecting to hate it, but to tell the truth I was pleasantly surprised. Its a story we’ve seen several times before (literally), but it was done in such a sober and relatable manner that it ended up winning me over. That being said, it stands at number four here not because it is so excellent (which it isn’t), but because of the rather mediocre line up we’ve got in our hands this year.

3. BlacKkKlansman: Spike Lee takes on racism and the Ku Klux Klan, connecting it to the sociopolitical climate alive today in the United States. The film is very well shot, acted and edited, and among the nominees it is one of the few I was on board with its nomination. The resolution to the central conflict is somewhat unfulfilling, and then by the end Lee kind of explicitly throws his intention in the audience’s face. Perhaps a little bit of subtlety in the final 15 minutes would’ve benefitted the film, but other than that it is one of the better nominees.

2. Roma: the clear frontrunner, which is something really odd considering it is a) a foreign film in spanish, and b) a Netflix release. These two factors could diminish its chances at winning the big prize, but I don’t see any other film that can stand up to the award season juggernaut Cuarón and Netflix have created. I might not be in its corner as much as most people seem to be, but I would be very pleased if it does end up winning Best Picture, since it’d be the first time a spanish-language film achieves such feat.

1. The Favourite: then again, I would rather see Lanthimos mad comedy be crowned champion. Its very unlikely, but this one is my favourite film of the lot. Its idiosyncratic brand of dark and surrealistic humour, the intricate power dynamics being tackled and exploited, the three main characters and the wonderful actresses that play them, it is just my type of film. I know it stands little chance at winning (it all went when it lost the BAFTA to Roma, the one award that could’ve turned the tide in its favour), and like I said I’d be perfectly fine if Cuarón’s film won it, but if it were up to me I’d go with The Favourite.

Prediction: I’m gonna say Roma, though those two factors I mentioned could end up playing a bigger role than what we might expect. I guess if its not Roma it could be either Green Book or BlacKkKlansman perhaps, though against those two The Favourite might stand a better chance. Still, I’m going with Cuarón’s film to take the big prize (and probably many others).

Snubbed: You Were Never Really Here, First Reformed, Shoplifters, Sorry to Bother You.

So that’s that. I know this predictions come in a bit late, the last few weeks have been somewhat crazy for me, I’ll be travelling home soon so I had lots of stuff to take care of before going, so sadly I couldn’t watch all the nominees. Anyway, the Academy Awards are tonight and we’ll see how well my predictions fare. Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed it, please leave a like and share it with your friends and family, and don’t forget to hit that follow button to stay up to date with more film related content. Until next time!