Theresa May should be looking forward to the beginning of May with some trepidation. Instead it is Jeremy Corbyn and Paul Nuttall who have most to fear.

The cause of their concern? This year’s round of local elections. On May 4 much of England and all of Scotland and Wales go to the polls. Normally, whoever is in power at Westminster takes a beating in these town hall contests. Yet there is little sign that the Conservatives will suffer such a fate this year. Instead, it is Labour and Ukip who appear most at risk of losing ground.

In England the principal focus of attention is on elections for 33 county councils (including half a dozen that also double up as district councils, and not only run schools and social care but also empty the bins and decide local planning applications). These councils are predominantly in shire England outside of the big cities, and thus are in the heartland of Conservatism.

Even though the Conservatives were in power when these county councils were last fought in 2013, the party still managed to win 1,100 or not far short of half all the 2,300 seats at stake. Labour, in contrast, won just over 500 and overall control of just three councils, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Durham.

This imbalance, though, was not the most remarkable feature of the results. Rather it was the success of Ukip. The party astounded everyone by winning a fifth of all votes cast, even though it only fought three-quarters of the wards up for grabs.

That is why this year’s local elections are potentially so difficult for Paul Nuttall. His party is defending a high watermark that it has never managed to emulate in any set of local elections since. As a result, even though the party is seemingly still hanging on to most of the 13 per cent of the vote that it won in the 2015 general election, it could still lose most of the 130 seats it will be trying to defend.

High watermarks are not, however, Labour’s problem. Its 2013 local election performance was distinctly modest – the party was almost outpolled by Ukip. Yet at least it stood in the national opinion polls at the time at an average of 39 per cent. Now it stands at just per cent. Conversely, the Conservatives are currently on 42 per cent, up 11 points on the position four years ago, and potentially enough to give Theresa May an overall majority of 80 if there were to be an early general election.

The swing against Labour since four years ago is unlikely to be as big in the local ballot boxes as it is in the national polls – Labour as well as the Conservatives should profit from the anticipated collapse in the Ukip vote, while Labour’s vote is already so low in much of shire England that it does not have 12 per cent left to lose. Nevertheless, in the handful of comparable county council by-elections held since the Brexit referendum, there has on average been a two-point swing from Labour to Conservative. Even a swing as low as that could be enough to cost the party its control of Nottinghamshire.

However, the most eye-catching contests in England are not the county council elections, but rather those for six new posts – directly-elected ‘city region’ Mayors, an innovation on which George Osborne insisted as Chancellor in return for handing out cash and powers to combinations of (often Labour) local councils that cover some of the country’s larger provincial cities and the surrounding hinterland. Labour MPs, Steve Rotherham and Andy Burnham, should succeed in their attempts to be elected in Liverpool City and Greater Manchester respectively. Labour are also favourites in Tees Valley, although the Conservatives are expected to take Cambridgeshire together with the West of England region centred on Bristol.

The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn Show all 11 1 /11 The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn He called Hezbollah and Hamas ‘friends’ True. In a speech made to the Stop the War Coalition in 2009, Mr Corbyn called representatives from both groups “friends” after inviting them to Parliament. He later told Channel 4 he wanted both groups, who have factions designated as international terror organisations, to be “part of the debate” for the Middle East peace process. “I use (the word ‘friends’) in a collective way, saying our friends are prepared to talk,” he added. “Does it mean I agree with Hamas and what it does? No. Does it mean I agree with Hezbollah and what they do? No.” Reuters The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn ‘Jeremy Corbyn thinks the death of Osama bin Laden was a tragedy’ Partly false. David Cameron used this as a line of attack at the Conservative Party conference but appears to have left out all context from Mr Corbyn’s original remarks. In an 2011 interview on Iranian television, the then-backbencher said the fact the al-Qaeda leader was not put on trial was the tragedy, continuing: “The World Trade Center was a tragedy, the attack on Afghanistan was a tragedy, the war in Iraq was a tragedy.” The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn He is ‘haunted’ by the legacy of his ‘evil’ great-great-grandfather False. A Daily Express exposé revealed that the Labour leader’s ancestor, James Sargent, was the “despotic” master of a Victorian workhouse. Addressing the report at the Labour conference, Mr Corbyn said he had never heard of him before, adding: “I want to take this opportunity to apologise for not doing the decent thing and going back in time and having a chat with him about his appalling behaviour.” The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn Jeremy Corbyn raised a motion about ‘pigeon bombs’ in Parliament This one is true. On 21 May 2004, Mr Corbyn raised an early day motion entitled “pigeon bombs”, proposing that the House register being “appalled but barely surprised” that MI5 reportedly proposed to load pigeons with explosives as a weapon. The motion continued: “The House… believes that humans represent the most obscene, perverted, cruel, uncivilised and lethal species ever to inhabit the planet and looks forward to the day when the inevitable asteroid slams into the earth and wipes them out thus giving nature the opportunity to start again.” It was not carried. The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn He rides a Communist bicycle False. A report in The Times referred to Mr Corbyn, known for his cycling, riding a “Chairman Mao-style bicycle” earlier this year. “Less thorough journalists might have referred to it as just a bicycle, but no, so we have to conclude that whenever we see somebody on a bicycle from now on, there goes another supporter of Chairman Mao,” he later joked. The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn 'Jeremy Corbyn will appoint a special minister for Jews' False so far. The Sun report in December was allegedly based on a “rumour” passed to the paper by a Daily Express columnist who has written pieces critical of the Labour leader in the past. The minister did not materialise in his shadow cabinet. The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn ‘Jeremy Corbyn wishes Britain would abolish its Army’ False. Another gem from The Sun took comments made at a Hiroshima remembrance parade in August 2012 where Mr Corbyn supported Costa Rica’s move to abolish it armed forces. “Wouldn’t it be wonderful if every politician around the world…abolished the army and took pride in the fact that they don’t have an army,” he added. The caveat that “every politician” must take the step suggests Mr Corbyn does not support UK disarmament just yet. The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn Jeremy Corbyn stole sandwiches meant for veterans False. The Guido Fawkes blog claimed that the Labour leader took sandwiches meant for veterans at at Battle of Britain memorial service in September but a photo later emerged showing him being handed one by Costa volunteers, who later confirmed they were given to all guests. The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn He missed the induction into the Queen’s privy council True. After much speculation about Mr Corbyn’s republican views and willingness to bow to the monarch, his office confirmed that he did not attend the official induction to the privy council because of a prior engagement, but did not rule out joining the body. The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn Jeremy Corbyn refuses to sing the national anthem. Partly true. The Labour leader was filmed standing in silence as God Save the Queen was sung at a Battle of Britain remembrance service but will reportedly sing it in future. Mr Corbyn was elusive on the issue in an interview, saying he would show memorials “respect in the proper way”, but sources said he would sing the anthem at future occasions. The most ridiculous claims made about Jeremy Corbyn He is a member of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Cheese True. The group lists its purpose as the following: “To increase awareness of issues surrounding the dairy industry and focus on economic issues affecting the dairy industry and producers.”

However, the position is far from clear in the West Midlands where Labour MEP Siôn Simon is being challenged for the Conservatives by former John Lewis CEO, Andy Street. Although Labour was nine points ahead across the region in the 2015 general election, the latest national polls imply there has been a four-point swing from Labour to Conservative since then. If that swing was to be replicated in the West Midlands mayoral contest, the outcome would be left on a knife-edge, settled perhaps by the second preferences that the supporters of the smaller parties – most notably UKIP – are able to cast under the Supplementary Vote system being used to elect the new posts. Defeat for Mr Simon would be a decidedly difficult result indeed for Jeremy Corbyn.

While England’s county councils are for the most part relatively barren territory for Labour at the best of times, the same cannot be said for Wales. When the seats up for grabs there were (mostly) last contested Siôn in 2012 Labour was on a high. It stood at nearly 50 per cent in the Welsh polls and enjoyed a nine-point increase in support in the local elections. As a result, the party will be defending as many seats in Wales (more than 550) as it will in the whole of England.

But, like elsewhere, Labour is no longer on a high in Wales. The most recent Welsh poll credits the party with just a third of the vote, well down on the 50 per cent it enjoyed five years ago. Both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives could well profit from Labour’s misfortune. Less than a three-point swing to the Conservatives is all that would be needed to deprive Labour of the biggest prize of all, its overall control of Cardiff.

However, Labour’s prospects look worst of all in Scotland. By the standards of other elections north of the border, the party performed relatively well in the last local elections five years ago. The party won 31 per cent of the Scotland-wide vote, just a point less than the SNP. Despite the use of a proportional representation system, the party retained control of Glasgow as well as three other councils.

But since then the party’s vote has collapsed in the wake of an independence referendum that saw one in three of its former supporters back leaving the UK and switching to the SNP, and, more recently, a Conservative revival rooted in a more robust defence of the Union than Labour has felt able to muster. Scottish polls put support for the party these days at just 15 per cent, while its vote has fallen on average by 10 points in local by-elections held during the last 12 months.

As a result, there seems little chance of the party retaining control of Glasgow or, indeed, of anywhere else. Not only could it be well behind the SNP, who hope to add dominance of Scottish local government to their existing grip of the Edinburgh parliament and of Scottish representation at Westminster, but also the Conservatives. And without Scotland, Labour’s chances of winning another overall majority in the Commons will remain remote even if the party was to turn the corner in England and Wales.

But what of the Liberal Democrats? Local government elections used to be their forte, until many of the party’s supporters took a dim view of their performance in the 2010-15 Coalition. North of the border the party looks as though it will struggle to add much to the dismal tally of 71 seats it won in 2012. Neither the polls in Scotland nor recent local by-elections give much reason to anticipate a revival of the party’s fortunes there.

Key Faces of UKIP Show all 11 1 /11 Key Faces of UKIP Key Faces of UKIP Nigel Farage Getty Key Faces of UKIP United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) Migration spokesman Steven Woolfe addresses supporters and media personnel in central London Getty Key Faces of UKIP Robert Kilroy-Silk, former television presenter and newly elected member of the European Parliament for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), shows a placard against the European Constitution in front of the Houses of Parliament Getty Key Faces of UKIP Mark Reckless, Director of Policy Development addresses party members during the UK Independence Party annual conference at Doncaster Racecourse Getty Key Faces of UKIP Gerard Batten MEP poses with protesters outside parliament Creative Commons Key Faces of UKIP Diane James gives an address at the UKIP Autumn Conference in Bournemouth Getty Key Faces of UKIP Douglas Carswell MP speaks to party members and supporters during the UK Independence Party annual conference Getty Key Faces of UKIP Suzanne Evans, Deputy Party Chairman of UK Independence Party (UKIP) speaks during the launch of UKIP's election manifesto Getty Key Faces of UKIP Peter Whittle, the UK Independence Party Member of the London Assembly, is interviewed in central London Getty Key Faces of UKIP MEP Mike Hookem during a visit to Concept Metal Products & Co Ltd Getty Key Faces of UKIP Paul Nuttall, Deputy Leader of the UK Independence Party speaks at a Say NO, Believe in Britain debate at Carn Brea Leisure Centre in Pool near Redruthon Getty

But in England, and perhaps too in Wales, the position could well be different. Although to date there has been no more than a modest two-point recovery in the party’s position in the opinion polls as compared with the 2015 election, since last summer it has scored some spectacular successes in local by-elections, on average enjoying as much as a 14-point increase in support. The record has been patchy; in some instances the party has come from nowhere to claim a seat, while elsewhere it has done no more than tread water.

If next month the Liberal Democrats succeed in repeating some of their more spectacular by-election advances, that might enable the party to begin to rebuild the local government base that five years of coalition managed to destroy. And any sign that its potential competitor on the centre left of British politics is finally enjoying something of a revival could be the worst news of all for Jeremy Corbyn.