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State Budget Secretary Randy Albright, shown here in a 2016 appearance before the state Senate Appropriations Committee, now has a billion dollar revenue shortfall to contend with as 2017-18 budget deliberations heat up.

(Dan Gleiter | dgleiter@pennlive.)

Now that we've all filed our tax returns, the still-forming 2017-18 state budget picture is officially, 10-figures bleak.

Pennsylvania's revenue collections missed their target by about $500 million in April, according to state Department of Revenue figures, blowing a hole in faint hopes that a cascade of personal income tax returns might somehow end a recent string of monthly shortfalls.

Year-to-date that means the state is running about $1 billion behind projected revenue collections, with two months to go in the budget year.

The actual revenue shortfall rests at just more than $1.2 billion.

But Acting Revenue Secretary Dan Hassell noted that after adjustment for some corporate filing changes that should self-correct later this spring, the real gap is closer to $1 billion.

And that's about where the good news ends.

Collections are off-target in almost every category of taxes: Personal income tax, short $324.7 million through April; Sales taxes, short $190 million; Corporate and business taxes, short $577.4 million as a group.

Even an old reliable like the real estate transfer tax is missing its mark by $67.8 million.

At least Pennsylvania is not alone.

Arturo Perez, fiscal analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, said Monday a new survey of states to be released next week will show that at least 19 are either experiencing budget shortfalls this year or have already taken corrective mid-year measures to address them.

It is, Perez noted, the largest number of states to report that status since the end of the Great Recession in 2009.

April is a key month in the states' fiscal cycle, as it is the month by which all personal and many business taxpayers are due to file income tax returns for calendar year 2016.

Perez and others said that part of this has to be attributed to slower-than-expected growth in the national economy.

The federal Commerce Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy turned in its weakest performance in three years in the January-March quarter as consumers sharply slowed their spending.

Gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, grew by just 0.7 percent in the first quarter following a gain of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

Other reasons for sluggish state tax collections include lower oil and gas prices that have depressed profits and employment in the energy sector, to the ongoing changes in shopping patterns that leave many states missing out on sales tax collections.

Some economists still believe economic growth will rebound for the rest of the year, with consumer spending fueled by continued strong job growth, accelerating wage gains and record stock levels.

State Budget Secretary Randy Albright said there is reason for future optimism in Pennsylvania, too, citing recent reductions in the statewide unemployment rate that should soon start showing up in new payroll taxes, and the state's continued emergence as a national natural gas production leader.

(A PennLive check of state jobs figures through calendar year 2016 showed Pennsylvania ranked 35th in terms of job growth rate last year, with a sluggish 0.55 percent growth.)

Wolf Administration officials, publicly at least, were keeping a stiff upper lip about the sagging revenues.

The administration had already reacted to the revenue shortfall in December - when the year-end shortfall was projected at $600 million - by freezing the state workforce at Dec. 2 levels.

Albright, in an interview with PennLive, said he believes the current-year deficit, after those steps and some previously announced supplemental appropriations are factored in, will approach $1 billion.

But noting there's little time left to bend the spending arc for 2016-17, Albright said the main focus now must be on building a sensible budget for next year that includes at least $1 billion in new, recurring revenues.

"Today should have been another wake-up call to that," Albright said.

Gov. Tom Wolf's $32.3 billion plan, which raises overall spending by about $570 million from 2016-17 levels, calls for a new tax on natural gas production, removal of some business-to-business sales tax exemptions and some other changes in Pennsylvania's corporate tax structure.

Wolf and the General Assembly are also considering expanding legal gambling options in Pennsylvania, and possibly some reductions in future tax credits.

Some mix of those revenues is needed, Albright said, unless lawmakers and taxpayers want to live with deep cuts in state aid to public schools or human services.

House Republicans countered last month with a $31.5 billion plan that turns first to expanded gambling and further liquor sales reforms for any new revenue.