In 2018, Trump’s tariffs began to take effect at different points in the year. The duties collected for the year surged from $33 billion to $48 billion, or to 1.9 percent of a still‐​growing pool of imports. Then, in 2019, it all hit the fan. Tariffs on steel and aluminum from nearly everywhere, and large swaths of products from China were in effect for the whole year. Year‐​end data show that total import value declined, but duties collected skyrocketed to a whopping $71 billion—a 123 percent increase over 2017.

The trade‐​weighted average tariff of 1.4 percent that had prevailed from 2001 to 2017 doubled to 2.8 percent in 2019. If the historical rate of 1.4 percent had applied to 2018 and 2019 imports, U.S. Customs would have collected duties of $71 billion over two years. Instead, over those two years, Customs collected $129 billion in tariffs for a “windfall” of $58 billion. Except it’s not a windfall. Those tariffs were paid to U.S. Customs by U.S. importers and those importers aren’t volunteering to dive on grenades to save the rest of us from this massive tax burden. The $58 billion is a tax that has been imposed on U.S. producers, logistics providers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers.

A closer look at the import statistics provides a better picture of exactly whom is bearing the burden of Trump’s tariffs or—to be honest—who is financing Trump’s effort to placate farmers with lump sums that are nothing more than efforts to buy their votes.

Between 2017 (pre‐​tariff base year) and 2019 (tariffs fully implemented), duty collections increased from $33 billion to $71 billion. That $38 billion increase was generated from new taxes imposed on U.S. importers of a broad array of goods. Most (almost three‐​quarters) of that $38 billion increase was generated from taxes imposed on the material inputs and finished goods of eight manufacturing industries listed in the table below. (These “industries” correspond to what is known as the “Chapter” level or the “2‐​digit” level of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which really captures multiple industries within the broad category descriptions in the table below.)