A new poll shows that prospects for a $900 million housing bond proposed in San Diego will likely hinge on how aggressively opponents campaign against the November 2020 ballot measure.

The phone poll conducted last month shows that support for the measure dips from 71 percent to 64 percent when likely voters are told the most common arguments that opponents make against the measure.

Support from two-thirds of voters -- 66.7 percent -- is needed for approval of the measure, which is a proposed property tax surcharge within the city that would pay for 7,500 subsidized apartments for the homeless, veterans, seniors and the poor.

The San Diego Housing Federation, which has spearheaded efforts to get the bond approved, commissioned the poll. The federation said the new poll is good news because it shows voters are increasingly concerned about homelessness and think government must do more.


Fifty percent of likely voters polled say “reducing homelessness in San Diego” is an extremely important issue for the city, up from 34 percent who called the issue extremely important in a March 2018 poll about the same ballot measure.

In addition, 59 percent of those polled strongly agree that “local government should be doing more to address affordable housing in the San Diego area,” an increase from 52 percent who strongly agreed with that in a previous poll.

“The data shows that we are seeing increasing concern among residents about homelessness, the housing crisis and the lack of action on these issues,” said Stephen Russell, the federation’s executive director. “Our bond measure is a tangible solution, and the survey results demonstrate that voters recognize this.”

But the poll shows that support dips when likely voters are told common arguments of opponents, which focus on how the measure would burden local homeowners and whether the measure would actually help solve homelessness.


The poll, which surveyed 563 likely voters from Nov. 13 through 18, told voters that opponents say the measure is not a plan to address homelessness, just “throwing more money at a problem that has no solution.”

The poll said another likely argument opponents will make against the measure is that adding more low-income housing would encourage more homeless people from outside San Diego to move here.

A third potential argument mentioned by the poll is that many San Diegans already struggle to pay their mortgages because of high local housing costs, making the bond’s property tax surcharge a bad idea.

A majority of the likely voters surveyed for the poll declined to characterize any of those arguments as “very convincing,” but their support for the measure dipped after simply hearing the arguments during the phone poll.


The poll, however, didn’t cover one strong argument in favor of the measure: it would help San Diego secure a greater share of state money devoted to homelessness and affordable housing by providing local matching funds.

The federation says approval of the bond measure, which has been dubbed “Homes for San Diegans” by supporters, would make San Diego eligible for more than $3 billion in state matching funds.

The poll, which was conducted by EMS Research, has a 4.13 percent margin of error.


The City Council’s Rules Committee voted 3-2 last month to declare that San Diego is facing a severe shortage of affordable housing that requires such a bond.

The Rules Committee vote was along party lines, with all Democrats in favor and Republican Chris Cate and independent Mark Kersey opposed.

Democrats said the bond is necessary because estimates show that San Diego needs more than 5,400 additional housing units geared for homeless people.

Cate and Kersey said the subsidized housing units the bond would pay for are too expensive, and that the proposal would be too much of a burden on property owners.


The bond would raise taxes on city of San Diego property owners by an average of $72 per year, but the federation says property taxes would not immediately increase by nearly that much because the city would sell the bonds in waves over several years.

The measure will need approval from the full council next year to appear on the November 2020 ballot.

