by Aaron Schatz

(Note: Single-game numbers below are corrected for original mistaken special teams ratings.)

Once again, it is time for postseason DVOA ratings. As always, the following rules apply:

All 32 teams are ranked, whether they made the playoffs or not.

Teams are ranked in order of weighted DVOA, not total season DVOA. Since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-5, and Weeks 6-11 are somewhat discounted. "Last week" here refers to last week's rank in weighted DVOA, not total season DVOA.

Teams are treated as having a bye week in any week where they did not play. Since most teams haven't played in two weeks, that means some of the ratings for non-playoff teams can start getting a little unreliable. Really, this is only to be used for playoff teams, the other teams are just there for ranking comparison purposes.

DVOA, as always takes a long-term view of an NFL team's performance. That means that the games of the last two weeks are just two games among many, so teams may be listed below other teams that they have beaten in the playoffs.

Based on DVOA, Indianapolis is clearly the unexpected team in the final four. The Colts ranked just No. 12 in the final DVOA ratings for the year and come out at No. 13 in the current weighted DVOA ratings. If we created full-season ratings that included the two weeks of playoff games, Indianapolis would improve, but only slightly, to No. 11 overall.

The other three teams all rank in the current top four in weighted DVOA (along with Baltimore) and were in the top four in total DVOA for the regular season (along with Denver).

The playoff odds report is updated for the final four. Snap counts and scores for the FO Playoff Challenge game are updated as well. You will find DVOA matchup pages for the AFC and NFC Championship games on the FO Premium page. Remember that the equation used to determine win probabilities for the playoff odds report is not as complex as the one used for FO Premium picks, so picks may differ.

* * * * *

To save people some time, we remind everyone to put their angry troll hatred into the official zlionsfan angry troll hatred Mad Libs form:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

If you are new to our website, you can read the explanation of how DVOA is figured here. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

Teams in yellow are still alive in the playoffs. Teams in gray lost this past weekend.



TEAM WEI.

DVOA LAST

WEEK W-L WEI OFF

DVOA OFF.

RANK WEI DEF

DVOA DEF.

RANK WEI S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 SEA 39.7% 1 13-4 16.9% 4 -23.0% 1 -0.2% 17 2 NE 34.1% 2 13-4 21.1% 3 -7.4% 12 5.6% 7 3 BAL 25.3% 5 11-7 6.9% 8 -8.4% 11 10.1% 2 4 GB 21.5% 3 13-4 26.8% 1 0.1% 18 -5.1% 30 5 BUF 18.5% 7 9-7 -9.3% 23 -20.5% 2 7.2% 4 6 DEN 17.5% 4 12-5 11.3% 6 -9.7% 8 -3.5% 25 7 PIT 16.8% 6 11-6 21.2% 2 6.4% 25 2.0% 13 8 PHI 16.6% 9 10-6 1.9% 12 -6.5% 14 8.2% 3 9 DAL 16.3% 8 13-5 16.2% 5 2.6% 21 2.7% 11 10 SF 10.2% 12 8-8 -1.8% 16 -12.2% 6 -0.3% 20 11 KC 9.3% 10 9-7 -0.6% 15 0.2% 20 10.1% 1 12 CAR 6.7% 11 8-9-1 -4.3% 17 -18.3% 3 -7.3% 32 13 IND 6.1% 13 13-5 -5.0% 19 -10.3% 7 0.8% 15 14 CIN 4.2% 16 10-6-1 -7.8% 22 -6.2% 15 5.7% 6 15 HOU 2.1% 14 9-7 -10.1% 24 -14.9% 4 -2.8% 21 16 MIN 2.0% 18 7-9 2.3% 11 4.7% 24 4.4% 8 TEAM WEI.

DVOA LAST

WEEK W-L WEI OFF

DVOA OFF.

RANK WEI DEF

DVOA DEF.

RANK WEI S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 DET 1.0% 21 11-6 -4.7% 18 -9.7% 9 -4.0% 26 18 STL 1.0% 15 6-10 -18.8% 26 -13.2% 5 6.5% 5 19 NO -2.0% 19 7-9 3.7% 9 8.6% 27 2.8% 9 20 MIA -3.3% 20 8-8 10.3% 7 8.9% 28 -4.7% 29 21 SD -5.2% 17 9-7 1.1% 13 0.2% 19 -6.1% 31 22 ATL -5.2% 22 6-10 3.6% 10 11.6% 30 2.8% 10 23 NYG -5.7% 23 6-10 0.6% 14 6.8% 26 0.5% 16 24 CLE -11.7% 26 7-9 -22.4% 29 -8.7% 10 2.0% 14 25 NYJ -13.8% 24 4-12 -7.8% 21 2.9% 22 -3.1% 22 26 ARI -14.9% 25 11-6 -15.0% 25 -4.4% 16 -4.4% 28 27 TB -22.3% 28 2-14 -32.0% 32 -7.3% 13 2.4% 12 28 JAC -24.2% 27 3-13 -22.8% 30 -2.0% 17 -3.4% 23 29 CHI -24.2% 30 5-11 -7.3% 20 16.7% 32 -0.2% 18 30 OAK -28.8% 29 3-13 -21.0% 27 3.7% 23 -4.1% 27 31 TEN -37.8% 31 2-14 -27.4% 31 10.1% 29 -0.3% 19 32 WAS -38.5% 32 4-12 -22.0% 28 13.0% 31 -3.5% 24

Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for this weekend's games. No real surprises, as the team that played better by VOA won all four contests.



DVOA (with opponent adjustments) TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST NE 37% 47% 8% -3% BAL 31% 37% 15% 9% SEA 34% 28% -5% 2% CAR 3% 9% 10% 4% GB 32% 39% 3% -4% DAL 5% 31% 22% -4% IND 69% 33% -37% -1% DEN -12% -1% 15% 4% VOA (no opponent adjustments) TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST NE 22% 41% 17% -3% BAL 8% 31% 31% 9% SEA 34% 24% -8% 2% CAR -27% -6% 26% 4% GB 18% 41% 19% -4% DAL -15% 31% 41% -4% IND 35% 18% -18% -1% DEN -18% -9% 13% 4%

* * * * *

Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for the Divisional round are:

QB Russell Wilson, SEA (24-HOUR HERO): Led all QB with 78.7% DVOA; 15-of-22 for 268 yards with 3 TD passes on third-and-long.

Led all QB with 78.7% DVOA; 15-of-22 for 268 yards with 3 TD passes on third-and-long. WR Danny Amendola, NE: Second among WR this week with 44 DYAR (5-for-6, 81 yards, 2 TD).

Second among WR this week with 44 DYAR (5-for-6, 81 yards, 2 TD). FB Tyler Clutts, DAL: TD reception, helped block for 59 yards by DeMarco Murray on 12 carries from two-back formations.

TD reception, helped block for 59 yards by DeMarco Murray on 12 carries from two-back formations. MLB D'Qwell Jackson, IND: 11 combined tackles including 5 Stops.

11 combined tackles including 5 Stops. RG John Urschel, BAL: Helped block for Ravens RB on 27 carries for 136 yards, 59 percent Success Rate.

We're very happy to finally get to the oft-requested Wilson, our first FO fullback of the season Clutts, and our comrade and combination offensive lineman/math genius Urschel.