Both former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former Massachussets Gov. Mitt Romney backed the GOP's first-place finishers in the South Carolina and Iowa gubernatorial races. Primaries a win for Palin, Romney

If Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney decide to run for the presidency in 2012, they'll have some powerful friends in the early states that are key to winning the GOP nomination.

Mike Huckabee? Not so much.


All of it is part of the presidential election fallout from Tuesday’s primaries in Iowa and South Carolina, two states so pivotal in the GOP nomination process that even their off-year state elections are carefully examined for their relevance to the next presidential race.

Both Palin and Romney backed the first-place finishers in the high-profile governors races in the two states —former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad in Iowa and State Rep. Nikki Haley in South Carolina — endorsements that are likely to pay dividends in the event either makes a bid for the presidency in 2012.

Huckabee, on the other hand, bet on the wrong horses — he used his political action committee to invest heavily in the losing campaigns of businessman Bob Vander Plaats in Iowa and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer in South Carolina, two candidates who finished some distance behind on Tuesday.

Branstad’s victory and Haley’s first-place finish — she’ll face Rep. Gresham Barrett in a June 22 runoff —represent a subtle but possibly important shift in the conservative grass roots, which powered Huckabee in 2008 to an improbable win in Iowa and a strong second place showing in South Carolina. Romney, meanwhile, finished a disappointing second in Iowa in 2008, despite spending considerable time and money to build a commanding organizational lead in the traditional kick-off state.

The most obvious signals Tuesday were that GOP voters who showed up in South Carolina are comfortable with a woman heading the statewide ticket — Haley would be the state’s first female governor, if elected — and that Iowa Republicans preferred a more moderate conservative over a harder right Christian conservative.

For Palin, who is already popular with conservative activists in Iowa and South Carolina, her support for the GOP nominees — who serve as the de facto party leaders in the two states — means she now has important allies in exactly the right places for 2012.

“I think those endorsements help Palin more than they actually help the candidates themselves,” said GOP strategist John Feehery. “She now has friends for life, and she has created the perception that she has her finger on the pulse of the Republican Party, which gives her more credibility as the party spokesperson.”

Perhaps of more consequence for a potential Palin presidential bid, the former Alaska governor now has access to a network of staffers and activists with recent experience in winning contested statewide races.

For Palin, who is notorious for running an extremely lean operation and has never had to assemble a ground operation in those states, the assistance in marshaling staff and a field unit would prove invaluable.

Even if she doesn’t seek the nomination, the 2008 Republican nominee for vice president has gathered important chits that will enable her to have a presence in the kingmaking GOP states. Palin put even more of her political capital on the line in South Carolina, where she publicly defended Haley after she was accused in the closing weeks of the campaign of having extramarital affairs.

“Those two states are pivotal for anyone who wants to be influential in presidential politics. And whether she runs or not, we want her to be influential in presidential politics,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List and one of Palin’s strongest allies in Washington.

Palin and Haley are a natural fit, she explained, since they both exemplify the new energy and fresh faces that so many Republicans are clamoring for.

“There are more new people involved, and that’s what Palin brings,” Dannenfelser said, noting that Huckabee just doesn’t bring that energy anymore.

In a statement provided to POLITICO Wednesday, Palin congratulated “the common-sense conservative candidates who proved again last night that the voice of the American people cannot be ignored in Washington any longer.”

“These candidates have the courage to stand up for their convictions, fight for what they know is right for their states and our nation, and buck politics as usual in order to put government back on the side of the people,” Palin said. “It will be exciting to have these excellent candidates — especially those fearless GOP ‘mama grizzlies’ — take their message straight through to November and into office.”

Some Republicans with ties to her potential 2012 rivals downplayed the significance of the June 8 results.

“Endorsers have the ability to bring attention to a campaign and raise some money,” said Chip Saltsman, Huckabee’s presidential campaign manager. “But at that end of the day, campaigns are won or lost on the people and issues running, not the list of endorsements.”

Kevin Madden, the former campaign spokesman for Mitt Romney, also shrugged at Palin’s influence.

“In each, the candidate that won ran a better race than their opponents,” Madden said of the results in South Carolina and Iowa.

Romney, who is expecting to campaign with Haley in the fall if she wins the runoff, supported Haley before she was the clear frontrunner but hasn’t received nearly as much attention for his ties to Haley as has Palin.

“Nikki Haley represents a new generation of conservative leadership for South Carolina,” said Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom. “Governor Romney spoke with her by phone on election night, and he expects to be campaigning with her again.”

Former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson said Romney’s early endorsement proved helpful to Haley, but it was Palin who helped push her across the finish line.

“Romney backed Nikki when she was at seven percent in the polls and gave her credibility,” Dawson said. “Palin then knocked it out the park along with a well-run and funded four-week effort to close the race.”

In Iowa, Romney was again an earlier endorser than Palin, who endorsed Branstad late in the campaign with the former GOP governor already leading the polls.

Huckabee, by contrast, endorsed Vander Plaats, one of his top Iowa aides, a year ago and campaigned for Bauer, the lieutenant governor who backed Huckabee in the South Carolina presidential primary, in December.

Huckabee lamented the “unfortunate defeats” of some of his candidates in a statement Wednesday.

“I don't support candidates based on how it will affect my political future, but how it will affect the future of the country,” Huckabee said. “I don't support candidates just because they may already have the money, momentum and machinery. More often than not, I like to help underdogs who actually believe in something other than getting elected — who are principled, pro-life, proven conservatives whose stand on the issues is based on conviction and not political convenience.”

The former governor still maintains a list of 372 activists in Iowa who were dispatched to raise funds and make calls for Vander Plaats, an existing political organization that Palin is unable to match.

Still, some GOP insiders view that as something of an asset since Palin doesn’t owe any favors and is free to operate without constraint.

“Palin has no history in the states or history in courting the party establishment structure,” pointed out GOP lobbyist and power broker Ed Rogers. “No one can call in an IOU on Palin. It leaves her free to side with rebels in a rebellious year.”

Palin’s successful involvement in the two states also reinforces the notion that her imprimatur, as much as anyone in the party, can move the dial for a segment of the GOP base.

“Palin is still the hottest endorsement for Republicans in contested primaries,” said Frank Donatelli, the chairman of GOPAC, an organization designed to elect Republicans to state and local offices.