The E tu union hopes its "living wage" campaign and changes to the Equal Pay Act will ensure it is not just well-paid professionals who see their pay go up this year.

Economists and recruiters believe this could be the year many employees will push for a decent pay rise.

The E tu union has indicated it has retirement home operators in its sights over pay.

ASB Bank said wage growth remained "soft" despite unemployment dipping below 5 per cent.

123rf.com When it comes to pay rises, it's hard to feel motivated if you believe you've been done down on the dough.

Securing a pay rise above the rate of inflation remained a "difficult task".

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But it forecast that could change this year, especially if migration finally began dropping, as it expected.

"There is potential for the slowing growth in the supply of labour to enable real wages to move higher," the bank said in a research note.

ASB's comments came in the wake of a prediction from recruitment firm Robert Walters that professional workers such as sales and IT staff would be in a "powerful position" to demand pay rises because of biting skills shortages.

"Those professionals with skills in particularly high-demand will receive substantial increases," Robert Walters country manager Shay Peters said.

E tu union spokesman Alastair Duncan said it largely achieved its objective of securing 2 per cent pay rises last year for members working in traditional blue-collar sectors such as manufacturing and mining.

But he was concerned the same could not be said for members in growth industries such as the health and aged care sectors.

Listed retirement home and aged care operators such as Summerset and MetLifeCare were doing "extremely well", posting profit rises of more than 40 per cent, Duncan said.

"But the average wage rise for the estimated 30,000-plus workers in residential care was 1 per cent or less," he said.

The Government announced in November that it would update the Equal Pay Act to allow women to file pay equity claims with their employers, which will be guided on how to assess claims.

That is rather than requiring claimants go directly to court.

Duncan expected that should see wages in aged care climb beyond the current "dreadful levels".

E tu would also push the "living wage" campaign, which has encouraged employers to pay at least $19.80 per hour – $4.55 more than the minimum wage.

Many economists are forecasting economic growth will come off the boil and settle to a steady simmer this year, in part because of skills shortages.

ANZ Bank senior economist Phil Borkin expected growth would decline from between 3.5 per cent and 4 per cent now, to about 3 per cent by the end of the year.

"That is still great but we don't think the economy has got the capacity to keep growing at its current pace," he said.

"Firms are telling us it is hard to find staff, and history has taught us that usually stronger wage growth is not too far behind that."

International events are the wild cards.

Commercial traffic volumes stagnated in December when there was also a surprise drop in retail spending.

Borkin agreed it was possible consumers might have pulled their horns in because of Donald Trump's US election victory and Britain's Brexit woes.

"When people look towards the next 12 months and they see what is going on in politics and that the housing market is not growing at the rate it was, these may come to the forefront of consumers' minds," he said.

ANZ's measure of consumer sentiment fell 3 per cent in December but was still at a high level and Borkin said it was not possible yet to draw any conclusions. "As we sit today, consumers are still in good heart."