In a mammoth rally in Guwahati last month, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi took a jibe at Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi: “Naam Tarun hone se soch tarun nahi ho jati” ( Just having the name Tarun doesn’t make one’s thinking fresh).Being fully aware of BJP’s potential upside in Assam, which won the party four out of 14 seats in the last Lok Sabha poll, Modi did not stop his sarcasm there. Describing the size of water-supply pipes in Gujarat, Modi said Gogoi with his entire family could drive his car through those big pipes.The objective clearly was to ridicule the poor drinking-water infrastructure in Assam, a state that often witnesses excess rainfall. Meanwhile, the 78-year-old Gogoi was seen at a resort in Kaziranga National Park, one of the major tourism hotspots that’s home to the one-horned rhinoceros.After playing a round of golf, Gogoi gave sound bytes to local television channels insisting that the so-called Modi wave in the state was a myth. “I am relaxed and sleeping well,” insisted the veteran Congressman, facing anti-incumbency and dissidence in his 13th year as chief minister.

Every Seat Counts

The real story, however, reads somewhat different. The top Congress leadership has realized it can’t be smug about its dominance in the Northeast, whose eight states together send 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Unlike in the past when star campaigners landed up in the region at the 11th hour of campaigning, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi this time made it a point to be seen on longer campaign trails in the Northeast.Gandhi’s 30-hour-long Assam itinerary, for example, included a mega public rally in Guwahati, interactive sessions with students, tribal leaders and women representatives in three places and also a 65-km-long road journey. Last week, Gandhi had yet another round of visits covering three states — Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Manipur — in his and his party’s attempt to retain Congress’ traditional strongholds. Passionate speeches were the order of the day, like the one he gave in Hapoli, Arunachal Pradesh last week.In that non-descript village, not far from China, Gandhi praised the beauty of its mountains, its women and even surprised the audience by saying that he would love to retire in Arunachal Pradesh. Modi, for his part, appears to have little time to take in the splendour these states have on offer, preferring instead to focus sharply on hard-nosed tactics to woo voters and add a few much-needed seats to the party’s tally. Modi has already addressed rallies in four Northeast states — Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura and Manipur — and is scheduled for another round by the end of this month.Remember opinion polls, whilst predicting that BJP will emerge the single-largest party in the general election, don’t see it coming close to the magic figure of 272 on its own; seats from wherever — including a chunk from the Northeast — will help. BJP politicians in the region reckon that the Modi magic is working. “People are overwhelmingly supporting us this time because of Narendrabhai,” claims 75-year-old Bijoya Chakravarty, a former Union minister in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government and the party candidate from Guwahati constituency.For BJP, the Northeast game plan, as it appears now, is a smart mix of going solo in a few states and striking alliances in others. In fact, its key target states in the region are Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur where the party has a reasonable organizational infrastructure in place. In Assam, where it won four seats in the 2009 general election, a conscious decision has been taken not to ally with the state’s principal regional party, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). This, despite AGP chief and former Assam chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta going on record to say that his party was more than willing to strike an alliance with the BJP.For BJP, not allying with the regional outfit is quite a gamble, as the move would divide anti-Congress votes. Yet, the local leadership of the party headed by Sarbananda Sonowal, himself a former AGP MP, is convinced that wooing prominent AGP leaders into its fold, instead of giving away key seats to the regional party, is a better option. Former AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowary joined BJP early this month after he was promised a nomination from the Barpeta constituency in lower Assam.In Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, where the majorities are Hindus, BJP has decided to go solo. After all, the party is aware that it has a visible presence in both the states. For example, BJP candidate Khiren Rijiju had in 2004 won from the Arunachal West parliamentary seat, one of the two Lok Sabha seats of the state, although he narrowly lost in 2009.Also, there have been past instances of BJP forming a government in Arunachal Pradesh and the Samata Party, an NDA ally, in Manipur, both during the BJP-led NDA regime at the Centre. Those governments were, however, a result of the ‘Aaya Ram Gaya Ram’ phenomenon when legislators overnight shifted their loyalty to the national parties in power. Samata Party was led by the then defence minister and Vajpayee-loyalist George Fernandes. Against such a backdrop, it’s unsurprising that Modi has been focusing on these two states in particular, in addition to big brother Assam.In Assam, however BJP has decided not to field its candidate in Bodo-dominated Kokrajhar constituency, prompting Bodoland People’s Front’s president Hagrama Mohilary to announce that it would support NDA if BJP has a chance to form the next government. Significantly, Mohilary’s party is a UPA ally and has a minister in the Gogoi government in Assam.Ninong Ering, Union minister of state for minority affairs and the Congress candidate in Arunachal East, acknowledges that there have been shifts of loyalty to the party in power in the past in the Northeast. But he’s upbeat this won’t happen this time around — not at least in Arunanchal. “In the case of Arunachal Pradesh I can bet that such an incident will never repeat under the current Congress leaders like Tuki [chief minister Nabam Tuki] and Mithi [Arunachal Pradesh Congress chief Mukut Mithi],” insists Ering.In Christian-dominated Nagaland and Meghalaya, BJP is taking a backstage, but still eying two out of the three seats through strategic alliances. Already, Nagaland chief minister Neiphiu Rio who is contesting the state’s lone Lok Sabha seat on a Naga People’s Front ticket is an NDA nominee. Similarly, former Lok Sabha speaker PA Sangma who is fighting elections from Garo Hills constituency in Meghalaya as a nominee of the newly floated National People’s Party, has joined NDA.“There are many regional outfits in the Northeast including AGP which are die-hard anti-Congress parties. Many of them may swing either to the Third Front or to BJP. But Rio and I have confirmed that we will join BJP-led NDA only,” says Sangma who was NDA’s nominee for the Presidential poll against Pranab Mukherjee two years ago.Neither BJP nor the Congress have concentrated too much on Mizoram and Tripura, two Northeast states where the trends had become clearer even before the election process actually began. Tripura, which has two parliamentary seats, has traditionally been a CPI (M) fortress with no serious challengers in sight.And with the Congress winning 34 out of 40 assembly seats in the recent Mizoram polls, the Grand Old Party’s headquarters have virtually given a free hand to chief minister Lalthanhawla to manage the party’s show there. Another NE state Sikkim, often called the eighth brother of the seven sisters, has been under the domination of one regional party, the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). The state will also witness simultaneous assembly polls for which SDF leader and state chief minister Pawan Chamling is seeking a straight fifth term in office.If the Northeast is taken as one, the Congress is undoubtedly the best equipped party in terms of organizational structure. But its biggest challenge is coming from within. One out of three MLAs in Assam, for example, is a die-hard dissident who publicly criticizes the state party brass, particularly the chief minister.Even after the election dates were announced, some dissident MLAs had a meeting at the residence of minister Himanta Biswa Sarma who has been spearheading the anti-Gogoi campaign for over a year now. Bhupen Kumar Borah, AICC secretary and the Congress nominee for Tezpur Lok Sabha constituency seeks to play down the issue. “I won’t claim there is no dissidence. But no MLA will go against the official Congress candidate and ruin his own prospects in 2016 assembly polls,” Borah says.Even in Arunachal Pradesh, the Congress has been facing dissidence, prompting the state government to propose simultaneous assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The state should have gone for elections only in September. “Politics is like a chessboard. Dissidence will be there in any political party. But such activities are not impacting the prospects of the Congress party in Arunachal Pradesh,” Ering maintains.Meantime, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress has been making attempts to enter into pockets where there has been disenchantment and dissidence or both. For example, after the Congress denied a ticket to noted physician Pervez Ahmed, son of former President of India Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a regional party, duly offered to oblige.But the Trinamool Congress jumped into the fray and Ahmed, who was till a few years ago CEO of Delhi’s Max Healthcare, accepted Trinamool’s nomination for the Barpeta constituency. Ahmed is, however, not the only son of a famous father taking the plunge into the general elections.Gogoi’s son Gaurav and former Union minister Santosh Mohan Deb’s daughter Sushmita are other prominent GenNext candidates. Which begs the question: why did veteran politician Sangma chose to contest from a seat which has been represented by his daughter Agatha Sangma? “Northeast needs stronger leaders in Delhi. The Congress has none,”is Sangma’s pithy reply.Traditional strongholds, good organizational structure, recognized faces.Anti-incumbency, corruption, dissidence VERDICT: Assam with 14 seats will hold the key for the party.Modi factor, wooing leaders from other parties.: Weak organization, non-Hindu population; no alliance with AGP this time.: Post-results, it may woo regional parties to its fold.