The assembly election in Karnataka comes close on the heels of a series of electoral gains made by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya. These victories not only enabled the saffron party to expand its political footprints in 22 out of the 29 states in India, but also created an electoral benchmark, almost impossible to better in the near future. The domino effect of the saffron wave in the electoral conquest of states is an unparalleled phenomenon, which not only slayed political establishments opposed to its ideology but also downsized the stature of the Congress and relegated it into the pantheon of regional parties. The build-up to the Karnataka elections created a plenty of noise in the media, as the principal parties in the fray – the BJP, the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) — resorted to mudslinging in a bid to polarise the electorate in their favour on caste, community and religious lines.

The real issues confronting Kannadiga citizens were obliterated, and diversionary and divisive issues like the North-South divide on the question of language and sharing of central finances, new state flag to appease Kannadiga sentiments, separate religion status to the Lingayats and unpublished caste census data took centrestage. The announcement of election dates in Karnataka by the Election Commission of India (ECI) created some drama, too, as the official date was leaked a day earlier, causing some embarrassment to the ECI. The list of candidates released by the political parties in Karnataka added yet another feather to the ugly headgear of electoral politics in India, as tickets were allotted aplenty to candidates with disproportionate assets and serious criminal records.

The Karnataka assembly elections are a direct face-off between a surging BJP, a reviving Congress and the ossified JD(S) which has entered into an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. Opinion polls show that it could be a hung outcome with no single party crossing the majority mark. The incumbent Congress appears to be marginally ahead of the BJP (2 percentage points), with both the parties expected to win around 90 seats. The JD(S)-BSP alliance could win around 35 seats and may emerge as a kingmaker in the formation of next state government.

Opinion poll agencies are not only unanimous in predicting a fragmented verdict in Karnataka, but also in the number of seats likely to be won by the BJP and the Congress, which could be a sheer coincidence or an extrapolation of the 2008 assembly election results. In 2008, the Congress aggregated 1% more votes than the BJP, but it was the saffron party that won the majority, mainly due to concentration of votes in some pockets, resulting in a higher number of seats. On the other side, Congress votes were evenly spread across the state and resulted in the party losing seats.

The poll prediction in Karnataka this time round seems like a foregone conclusion but it could go wrong due to two reasons: First, the 2% gap in the vote share of the BJP and the Congress reported in two surveys is too slender for an accurate calculation of seats in a three-way competition, as a small swing of votes can completely alter the electoral outcome. Further, the margin of error in the surveys conducted in India are generally in the range of 2% to 5%, running a high risk of predictions going wrong. Second, pre-poll election surveys have an inherent limitation, as they fail to factor in the opinion of the undecided voter. The consolidation of ‘floating votes’ in favour of either the BJP or the Congress can turn the seat predictions and mandate in Karnataka on its head, and add yet another state in the list of erroneous forecasting of state elections in India. The failure of polling agencies in the Gujarat assembly elections in providing a fair approximation of seats to be won by the BJP and the Congress, a bipolar contest relatively easier to predict, is a testimony of survey-based seat predictions being circumspect and the growing trust deficit in opinion polls.

Election Forecast BJP Congress JD(S)-BSP Seats Voteshare (In %) Seats Voteshare (In %) Seats Voteshare (In %) ABP News-Lokniti, CSDS 89-95 35 85-91 37 32-38 20 India Today-Karvy Insights 78-86 35 90-101 37 34-43 19 Times Now-VMR 89 35 91 39 40 21

Note: The seat predictions were made based on opinion polls. Total Assembly Seats: 224

Caste and party loyalties

It thus becomes crucial to delve into the history of social coalitions stitched by political parties in elections, qualitatively analyse the political underpinnings and the issues that could resonate with the electorate for a fair assessment of the electoral contest in Karnataka. The demographic configuration of the voters in the state comprises 20% Dalits, 16% Muslims, 7% Kurubas, 16% OBCs, 14% Lingayats, 11% Vokkaligas, 3% Brahmins, 5% Adivasis, 3% Christians and others. The caste-community profiling of the three major political establishments in Karnataka reveals that the minorities, backward classes and Dalits (AHINDA) have been the main support base of the Congress. The dominant caste — Lingayats– were the traditional Congress voters, but the sacking of the chief minister Veerendra Patil, who belonged to this community in 1990 led to the political drift from the party.

The Vokkaligas have supported the JD(S) since long, while the BJP has created a new coalition of Lingayats and Brahmins (LIBRA), a winning caste combination in the 2008 assembly elections. In coastal Karnataka, the saffron has created a caste community platform of the Bunts, Billavas and Brahmins, popularly referred to as 3Bs, which led to its domination in the region. The BJP squandered its chances to consolidate its new social coalition and add new groups which allowed the Congress to recreate the caste matrix of AHINDA and enabled Siddaramaiah to emerge as the undisputed OBC (Other Backward Classes) leader to win the 2013 assembly elections. The success of Congress depends upon the AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits) vote bloc, which seems to be solidly backing it, while the BJP seems to be struggling to recreate the LIBRA caste calculus and mobilise the ‘Madigas’ or untouchables among the Dalits, to make it a winning force in the election. The Dalits and other OBC votes are crucial in crossing the winning threshold, which seems to be with Siddaramaiah, and if Muslim votes polarise in favour of the Congress, it could better its winning margins of the last assembly elections.

The findings of opinion polls show that the performance of the Congress-led Siddaramaiah government in Karnataka has been quite satisfactory on major governance parameters and there is no visible anti-incumbency against it. But the party has to buck the electoral trend of last four decades of Kannadiga electorate changing the state government after every five years. The reasons for the absence of anti-incumbency sentiments against the state government have been largely due to the inclusive and welfarist schemes rolled out in the last five years: Anna Bhagya (free distribution of rice), Ksheera Bhagya (subsidy for milk), Vidyasiri (hostels for students), agricultural e-markets, interest-free loans to farmers, reservation for SC and STs in government contracts, low-cost meals at Indira Canteens in urban areas and increased budget for religious minorities.

The Siddaramaiah government’s populist initiatives like adoption of a flag for Karnataka and provisioning the central government to provide a separate religion status to the Lingayats are clever political moves to assert Kannadiga identity and mobilise votes for the Congress. The Siddaramaiah regime has fared quite well on macro governance indicators, such as higher industrial investments and revenue generation, which helped in financing social programmes and schemes in the state. His tenure has been by and large controversy free, and the corruption charges aggressively levelled against him by the top leaders of the BJP will not be damaging, but could be counterproductive, as the tickets given by the saffron party to the tainted Bellary brothers has made corruption in public life a non-issue in this election.

The BJP lost the 2013 elections mainly due to the exit of B.S. Yeddyurappa from the party, but his return strengthened the cadres, which, coupled with the ‘Modi wave’ enabled the saffron party in winning 17 out of the 28 parliamentary seats in 2014 general elections. The BJP continues to be a force to reckon with, and Yeddyurappa was named the chief ministerial candidate with the party high command’s belief that he is the supreme leader of the Lingayats and has the charisma to defeat the Congress. Yeddyurappa is the only chief minister of Karnataka incarcerated for 25 days for his alleged involvement in a land scam, and the memories of his high-handedness and misrule of the state is still afresh in the minds of the citizens.

The spilling of anger on the streets following BJP’s denial of tickets to Yeddyurappa’s son and others close to him reveals that the saffron party may appear united in public realm, but it is divided in intent and purpose which could damage its electoral prospects. The allotment of tickets to Reddy brothers has driven the wedge further, as both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have distanced themselves from the decision and avoided public rallies in regions of their influence. The communal bogey, which has helped the BJP in polarisation of Hindu votes in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat elections, is not expected to have a wide impact, as the people of Karnataka are not receptive to the idea of communal politics, and the BJP’s win in the 2008 elections was for change, and not a mandate for pursuing their right wing ideology.

The JD(S), led by former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and his son H.D. Kumaraswamy, has a strong support base among the Vokkaligas, which is a numerically dominant caste in rural districts of Bengaluru. However, the party lost it stronghold after the elevation of Siddaramaiah as chief minister in 2013, as he belongs to that sub-region. The Congress won two by-elections in 2017 in rural Bengaluru, which led to seven state legislators defecting from JD(S) to the Congress and were awarded with Congress tickets to contest the elections. The JD(S) is in a state of besiege and has entered into an electoral alliance with the BSP and is fighting a losing battle to stay relevant in state politics. It may play spoiler for the Congress and the BJP in a few seats, and fancies its chances of sharing political power in Karnataka if there is a fragmented verdict.

The election which should have been a contest between the state leaders, Siddaramaiah and B.S. Yeddyurappa, has once again turned into a battle of supremacy between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, a ‘match practice before the next general elections’, which has no connection with issues relevant to Karnataka and the aspirations of the state’s residents. The state leadership is playing second fiddle to the national leaders and have been reduced to mere translators and clap boys for their parties in public rallies and meetings. A snapshot of the political turf in Karnataka reveals that Congress seems all set to return to power with a clear majority, unless Modi weaves his magic in the last leg of election campaigning and converts the floating electorate into saffron votes.

The outcomes of several state elections in recent years would not have gone in favour of the BJP, had it not been for the magical electoral spell of Modi in the death overs of the contest. The ‘Modi magic’ has captured the imagination of voters in the country and his harangues and cinematic rhetoric, has had a ‘pied piper’ effect of not only luring the electorate to the voting booths but also in convincing them to exercise their franchise in favour of the BJP. The Karnataka election has been predicted as a ‘dead heat’, but it has the potential for yet another electoral surprise, as the Congress may reverse the trend of the incumbent party losing the state election every five years and retain power on its own strength. On the other side, the saffron wave may reach an electoral plateau and start yielding diminishing returns for the BJP in winning state elections, and provide the much-needed political impetus to opposition parties which are lying low at the moment.

Praveen Rai is a political analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi.