GOP Surges in Key Races, Blunting Prospects of a ‘Blue Wave’

Early voting turnout data from six key battleground states suggest a surge for the Republican party as President Donald Trump ramps up campaign rally appearances across the country ahead of the Nov. 6 midterms.

Far more Republican early voters turned out than Democrat voters in Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Texas, Tennessee, Florida, and Arizona, according to data provided by TargetSmart.

These states are pivotal in the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races, which are now just 13 days away, according to a Fox News analysis.

The data suggest the GOP’s early boost could weaken chances of the purported Democratic “blue wave” in November, a scenario where Democrats would win enough races to gain control of at least one branch of Congress. Recently, top political operatives in both parties questioned not only the size of the Democratic wave, but whether there will be any wave at all.

According to the analysis, Republicans are leading over Democrats by 12 points in Indiana, 11 points in Arizona, 6 points in Florida, 9 points in Georgia, 17 points in Montana, and 10 points in Texas.

Meanwhile, Nevada was the only state where Republicans did not outpace Democrats, who currently lead by 7 points.

The analysis also revealed other trends, such as how women outpaced male voters in a majority of the key states.

So far, more women voted than men in Florida (55 percent to 45 percent), Georgia (54 percent to 46 percent), Indiana (53 percent to 46 percent), Montana (49 percent to 48 percent), Tennessee (52 percent to 48 percent) and Texas (59 percent to 41 percent).

More than 5 million votes have been cast early or absentee in the 2018 midterm elections nationwide, as of Oct. 22.

“If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin told AP of the Democrats’ outlook in the Senate. However, he said, as it currently stands, it “would be a long shot.”

The Trump Effect