Global warming an 'existential threat?' 'Probably not' says Cliff Mass

Washington State Governor and presidental candidate Jay Inslee signs five climate change bills into law that will reduce carbon emissions, decrease pollution, boost jobs and increase public health, Tuesday, May 7, 2019 less Washington State Governor and presidental candidate Jay Inslee signs five climate change bills into law that will reduce carbon emissions, decrease pollution, boost jobs and increase public health, Tuesday, May ... more Photo: Genna Martin, SEATTLEPI Photo: Genna Martin, SEATTLEPI Image 1 of / 14 Caption Close Global warming an 'existential threat?' 'Probably not' says Cliff Mass 1 / 14 Back to Gallery

The climate crisis, caused by global warming, is an "existential threat" to human civilization, in words of Jay Inslee, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and other candidates seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.

"Probably not," argues University of Washington atmospheric sciences Prof. Cliff Mass in an essay posted to his blog.

"An existential threat must have the potential to undermine the very viability of civilization," writes Mass. Global warning is "a serious problem" with "substantial impacts," he adds, "but in no way does it seriously threaten our species or human civilization."

Mass is offering a far more optimistic view than scientists who have warned of accelerated warming and accelerating consequences.

It's not the first time. He helped write the 2018 Voters Pamphlet statement against Initiative 1631, the fee on large carbon polluters on last November's ballot. He strongly criticized the Seattle Times investigation by Craig Welch on ocean acidification and its consequences.

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After examining models, he argues that the Earth will likely experience modest warming, with "modestly increased emissions in 2040, declining after 2050." Global warming will not reach catastrophic levels and can be answered with "reasonable mitigation and adaptation."

Seattle, for instance, will experience a "steady rise, again with no sudden changes that would be hard to adapt to."

"Most Northwest folks will want to purchase an air conditioner for summer, but there is no threat to our existence, and winters will be more pleasant," he writes.

Mass is writing during a week of massively ominous news on the climate front:

--The National Geographic, in a lengthy report on the melting of Arctic permafrost (co-authored by Craig Welch) writes: "Arctic permafrost isn't thawing gradually, as scientists once predicted. Geologically speaking, it's thawing overnight." The result -- additional methane and carbon dioxide emissions.

--Greenland has lost 250 billion metric tons of ice, with melt at levels scientists didn't anticipate until 2070. It was hit by a heat wave, extreme melt runoff, and low July snowfall at upper elevations.

--A phenomenal 7.9 million acres of forest in Siberia and Russia's Far East are burning or have burned in the summer of 2019. Greenland has even experienced forest fires.

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"The warming will not be uniform, being greater in the polar regions, less over eastern oceans," writes Mass.

He debunks predictions of catastrophic economic damage from climate change. Using the recent Fourth National Climate Assessment, Mass picks out the figure that there will be 1% loss to the economy by 2100.

"We will be much richer in 2100, and will lose 1 percent of our GDP because of global warming: Doesn't sound like the end of civilization, does it?"

A counter argument is offered by those who predict that rising sea levels will disrupt human habitation in densely populated areas from South Asia to the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.

Mass is an optimist, undeterred by 107-degree temperatures in Paris on the vanishing of the Anderson Glacier in the Olympics, rapid melting of the Lyman Glacier in the Cascades, or rapid disappearance of the Grinnell Glacier in the Rockies.

"Global warning is a real issue," he writes, "and we are going to slowly warm our planet, resulting in substantial impacts (like less snowpack in the Cascades, increased river flooding in November, drier conditions in the subtropics, loss of Arctic sea ice).

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"But the world will be a much richer place in 2100 and mankind will find ways to adapt to many of the changes. And there is a good chance we will develop the technologies to reverse the increasing trend on greenhouse gases and eventually bring carbon dioxide concentrations down to previous levels."

Those who claim an existential crisis are, Mass argues, fear mongering. They are making "unfounded claims of future catastrophe" which prevents a national consensus on action, "and hurts vulnerable people who are made anxious and fearful."

Nor does Mass like them.

"Presidential candidates with little chance of securing the nomination are flying back and forth around the country, resulting in enormous carbon footprints," he writes. "Climate scientists fly more for work and pleasure than anyone."

There is certain to be "Mass reaction" to the professor's essay.