1) Ball’s lesson for Saints and United



As our man Daniel Taylor recalled a few weeks ago, Southampton’s last appearance in a League Cup final led to a painful lesson in hubris for Alan Ball. Ball taunted John McGovern when David Peach put Saints ahead against Nottingham Forest in 1979 – “this is Wembley, son, try to enjoy it while you’re here!” – only to get his words gleefully quoted back at him when Forest replied with three decisive goals. More so than its FA Cup counterpart, the League Cup final has been notable for quite a few turnaround victories, ever since Rotherham United let a 2-0 first-leg lead slip against Aston Villa in the very first decider back in 1961. Other famous comeback wins include QPR’s effort from two goals down against West Brom in 1967; Liverpool hauling themselves back at the death against Spurs in 1982; Arsenal breaking Sheffield Wednesday hearts (and their own collarbones) in 1993; and José Mourinho’s Chelsea shushing Liverpool in 2005. First blood in these fixtures doesn’t always count: in the last ten years, five of the finals have been won by the team conceding first. (Chelsea v Arsenal in 2007, Spurs v Chelsea in 2008, Manchester United v Aston Villa in 2010, Liverpool v Cardiff in 2012, Manchester City v Sunderland in 2014.) So our advice to Saints and United this weekend? Enjoy Wembley. But if you go one up early doors, for goodness sake keep your counsel. SM

Premier League relegation battle: the fans’ verdict on who’s going down Read more

2) Will the Swans shock Chelsea?

Chelsea are going to win the Premier League: everyone’s been understandably banging this drum for many weeks. But if something is going to go wrong for them, something’s going to have to go wrong very soon, and if the chasing pack are to have any hope, Swansea City might have to get some sort of result at Stamford Bridge. Given Antonio Conte’s super-confident side have won their last 11 home league games, and the Swans are still desperately splashing around in the deep end, that’s quite the big ask. Still, what’s the point of turning up without hope? And if Chelsea have any sort of Achilles heel, it’s their occasional habit of leaving big gaps in the midfield, and conceding headers in their own box. Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente, respectively, are the men who could take advantage. Also consider Swansea’s recent win at Liverpool, their unlucky loss at Manchester City, their collective happy demeanour since Paul Clement took over, and the fact Chelsea haven’t registered a win against the Swans in their past three meetings. It’s a long shot, yes. But long shots do sometimes land. City, Arsenal and Spurs will be hoping this is one such afternoon. SM

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Will the in-form Gylfi Sigurdsson upset Chelsea? Photograph: Athena Pictures/Getty Images

3) Foxes could scupper Liverpool’s European hunt

Leicester’s travails since the new year have been well documented, and led to Claudio Ranieri’s dismissal on Thursday, though Liverpool haven’t been much better. The pair meet at the King Power Stadium on Monday night, both desperate for a result that could influence the rest of their season. Leicester, despite all the self-inflicted brouhaha surrounding them right now, will be happy to welcome Liverpool, who like Manchester City before them might not be able to help themselves in piling forward in the progressive style, leaving plenty of space at the back for Jamie Vardy to rediscover his mojo. Leicester are also a long-time bogey club for the visiting Reds, regularly turning them over in League and cups; last season’s Vardy spectacular was simply the latest episode of a long series stretching back to the 1960s and taking in most decades since. Leicester will be happy to park the bus, even if it has dodgy brake pads, and see what transpires. If Liverpool can’t find a way around it, after a fortnight’s rest and prep, the Champions League spots will begin to look like a pipe dream. SM

4) A trace of shame from Sunderland’s players



Who’d be a Sunderland player eh? Rock bottom of the Premier League and still feeling sorry for themselves after a 4-0 shellacking at the hands of Southampton, these over-burdened athletes were recently forced to go on a trip to New York, where they endured the horrors of bike-riding around Central Park, attending various premium sporting events and cutting loose at a Red Hot Chilli Peppers gig in the name of “team bonding”. This thoroughly undeserved pampering suggests David Moyes is all out of ideas on how best to get a tune out of his players and had obviously decided they might not respond to the kind of bonding exercise they actually deserved – being chased around the training ground by season ticket-holders hitting them with sticks. Moyes and his players returned from their jolly-up to be greeted by the news that an unspecified number of Sunderland’s less well-known staff are facing redundancy and if they have an ounce of shame, all those who visited the Big Apple will do everything in their power on and off the field to ensure that none of their colleagues lose their jobs. They can start by putting in some sort of performance at Everton, where they got thrashed 6-2 last season. Any kind of repeat performance from Sunderland’s players will send out the very clear signal that these over-indulged under-achievers aren’t just rubbish at football, but really don’t give any sort of damn. BG

5) Mark Clattenburg’s last Hawthorns hurrah

Having agreed to serve out his notice period before taking up his £500,000-per-year tax free gig in Saudi Arabia, Mark Clattenburg will make what could be one of only three appearances as a Premier League referee at the Hawthorns on Saturday. Having hogged so many headlines since announcing his decision to head for sunnier clines, sod’s law suggests that if any referee is likely to find himself at the centre of controversy this weekend, it’s the match official from Durham. In his most recent match, Clattenburg felt compelled to apologise to Hull City’s hard done players for incorrectly allowing an Arsenal goal and will be eager to avoid the embarrassment of a similarly high-profile rick now that the details of his new job have been revealed. Only time will tell how, or if, this effects his dealings with the players of West Bromwich Albion and Bournemouth on Saturday. Not to mention how, or if it effects their dealings with him. BG

6) Palace players need to show mental strength to endure Boro visit

What a sorry state the Premier League is in if Crystal Palace fans have become a liability to their team. The home side have not won a league match at Selhurst Park since early December and it has looked like part of the reason for that is that some fragile Palace players cannot cope with the pressure of performing in front of noisy fans. As soon as things turn against Palace, the fear of disappointing those fans seems to overwhelm some players and make the fear self-fulfilling. Under those circumstances, this weekend’s visitors, Middlesbrough, are far from ideal opponents, because if there is one thing that Aitor Karanka’s team are adept at doing, it’s frustrating home teams and spectators. Sam Allardyce says that Palace will only survive if they can get back to being comfortable at home. They have their work cut out this weekend. PD

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Crystal Palace continue to struggle at home despite vociferous support. Photograph: PPAUK/Rex/Shutterstock

7) West Brom looking for cherries on the cake

A win this weekend would take West Bromwich Albion to the 40-point mark. There was a time when reaching that would have had the club and Tony Pulis declaring their mission accomplished but the Baggies and their manager have grander ambitions now, and Pulis was given an unnecessary reminder of that fact this week when he fielded questions from fans during a radio phone-in. One caller announced that he would ask Pulis to be his son’s godfather if West Brom qualified for Europe this season (Pulis said he would accept the honour). So the vibes at the Hawthorns are better than they have been for years. Bournemouth are still in reasonable spirits, too, even though they have not won a match this year and have injury concerns about a defence that is the joint worst in the Premier League. Eddie Howe’s side tend to have great difficulty defending corners, which is a weakness that West Brom will exploit if it has not been addressed. That six-point cushion between Bournemouth and the relegation zone will disappear fast if the Cherries do not tighten up. PD

8) Burnley will need to be impish to foil Hull’s escape

That sense of near-invincibility that Burnley had at Turf Moor was blown to smithereens by Lincoln City last weekend so now it is time for Sean Dyche’s men to get their act together on the road. Saturday’s trip to Hull is the first of four away matches in a row for Burnley, who have managed one whole point and five goals from their previous 11 away league games. They need to take a leaf from the book of their non-league conquerors for their trip to the KCOM, as Hull have won all four home matches so far under Marco Silva and will haul themselves out of the relegation zone if they win again on Saturday. PD

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Oumar Niasse celebrates his goal against Liverpool, as Hull’s home form continues to improve. Photograph: Gareth Copley/Getty Images

9) Southampton on a roll

In the first 90 years of their existence Southampton did not lift a single major trophy, so to win two in 41 years would amount to a blistering hot streak. They are tantalisingly close to completing that feat and, what is more, if they won at Wembley on Sunday they could claim it to be the among finest League Cup triumphs in history, albeit not within earshot of fans of Swindon Town. Beating Manchester United on the back of away wins at Liverpool and Arsenal and home victories over another two other top-flight clubs, Crystal Palace and Sunderland, would be a splendid achievement. Manchester City (1970), Nottingham Forest (1978) and others have also had fearsome itineraries but Southampton could make a decent case for trumping everyone if they won this season without conceding a goal in the entire competition. That would be especially impressive in view of the loss of Virgil Van Dijk. On the plus side, Manolo Gabbiadini has arrived since the semi-final, which means that Claude Puel, who has been tactically excellent in the competition so far, can at last factor a sharp finisher into his plan. Having had two weeks off to prepare for this final, Puel might reflect that elimination from the Europa League earlier this season was not all bad, especially if United are deprived of Michael Carrick and Henrikh Mkhitaryan as a result of injuries suffered in Saint Etienne. PD

10) Stoke’s leftfield move could harm Spurs

Mark Hughes shifted Marko Arnautovic from the left to the right wing for Stoke’s last match in order to give a start to Ramadan Sobhi on the left. Both players combined to set up the winning goal for Joe Allen against Crystal Palace – but only after Arnautovic had temporarily wandered back to the left. “Marko said that’s why we created the goal, because he was on his favourite side,” said Hughes with an indulgent smile afterwards. Arnautovic and Sobhi both prefer operating on the left but one of them is probably going to be deployed on the right wing at Tottenham on Sunday, which may leave one Stoke player a little irritated but will definitely alarm Ben Davies. PD