This map is part of the map: “Plan of action to prevent human extinction risks”. This map zooms in the Plan B of x-risks prevention.

The main idea of the map: There are many ways how to create x-risks shelter, but they have only marginal utility for x-risks prevention, even if we include space colonization. Sweet spot of catastrophes for which refuges may be helpful is small (see their list in the Table 1.) For example, in the case of an asteroid impact less than 1 km in size, no specially built shelters would be needed, as existing refuges will be enough. And, in the case of 20+ km impact, no known shelters will help. Building large refuges results in many nasty trade-offs, which could even make them a source of additional risk.

The map consists of two parts: the map of all known types of refuges itself and also a table of trade-offs which undermine the efficiency of refuges (Table 1 below).

The vertical axis of the map: On the map, all refugees are divided into three categories:

a) Currently in existence

b) Possible, based on current technologies

с) Possible in the future after super technologies, such as nanotech are created

The horizontal axis of the map: On the horizontal axis is the distance from typical city dwelling to a refuge, which correspond to difficulty to reach it.

1. Space colonization as a refuge. I also include space colonization as a refuge type, but it is not exactly the same. The classical refuge is aimed on repopulating Earth after the catastrophe, but self-sustained space colonies may never return to Earth. So, they are more about increasing the resilience of human civilization by increasing habitable zones and thus zooming up needed scale of the catastrophes which could affect all zone.

Space colonisation is not a universal solution as throughout human history, the size of possible artificial catastrophes has grown faster than the size of the civilization.

2. “Yellow submarine” project. My preferred idea of shelter is the one which I refer to as the “Yellow submarine” – that is, existing nuclear submarines converted into a "Noah’s Ark" with fertile and trained people on board, equipped with relevant knowledge and stockpiles. Nuclear subs were built to survive large changes in pressure and for prolonged independent existence in hostile environments. They are also able to escape detection in the case of war.

Decommissioned nuclear subs could be converted into moving refuges for a relatively small price (compared to the total price of nuclear fleet). Submarines solve the problem of energy independence, overheating, oxygen, water. They could change their level of isolation. Some are equipped with nuclear reactors that can function for 20 years without reloading. Nuclear submarines are mostly limited by food stockpiles and the fixing of technical problems.

Best literature on the topic: Most current research on the topic of refuges is summarized in the article "How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe?” by Nick Beckstead, who is in general skeptical about their utility and suggests that they could help only in small range of catastrophes, namely pandemic and radiological contamination created by cobalt bomb. I agree that utility of refuges is limited but I think that there is more risks there they could help.

Another well polished idea is presented in Karim Jebari’s article: “Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy.” In this article, Jebari discusses underground shelter with nuclear power in remote locations, which favours the resettlement of humans at a later date.

Use of colour in the map. I have marked boxes of the most promising ideas in green.

The table below shows a lot of trade-offs which undermine the expected utility of large shelters.

Conclusion: In general, I tend to agree with Beckstead, that the usefulness of refuges is only marginal, and they should not be the main focus for x-risks prevention. In any case, I think it would be rational for humanity to devote part of its budget to creating specialized anti-global risks refuges, as described by Jebari. It could be in combination with nuclear submarines for refuge, because submarines are better for acute impact phase survival and if based on remote islands, could be useful for a longer contamination phase survival.

The pdf of the map: http://immortality-roadmap.com/sheltersmaps2.pdf

In the following table, I present some trade-offs about shelters (Table 1):





Table 1