Each provocation attracted criticism, but produced another effect: diverting attention from the terrible cost, both in terms of lives and jobs lost, that the virus is inflicting on Americans. The US reported 2492 new coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, topping the record set the day before. In total, more than 30,000 Americans have died from COVID-19. More than 600,000 cases have been confirmed. Meanwhile, another 5.2 million people filed for unemployment benefits in a week —taking the total number forced into joblessness since the outbreak began to 22 million. While the virus has put many aspects of American life on hold, one thing is for certain: the presidential election will still go ahead.

Changing the November 3 date would require the support of both chambers of Congress, which is nearly impossible to imagine. And the constitution dictates that a presidential inauguration be held on January 21. 'No centre of gravity' Loading Across the political spectrum, there is broad agreement that the pandemic has reshaped the election contest. In a widely-shared memo this month, political strategist Bruce Mehlman argued the election would essentially be a referendum on Trump's handling of the crisis. But there is no consensus on what the voters' verdict will be. The situation is too unprecedented and the outlook too uncertain.

"Every person you ask has a different theory," Stan Barnes, a veteran Republican strategist, says. "There is no centre of gravity here yet." With more than 10 million people across the nation suddenly unemployed, volunteers are handing out food to bread lines forming in the shadows of privileged enclaves like this one in Florida. Credit:Bloomberg Mia Love, a former Republican congresswoman, thinks the pandemic has turned Trump from an election favourite to underdog. That's because it has deprived him of his most potent electoral asset: a booming economy. Loading "Before the coronavirus I would regularly meet people who said they didn't like the President's rhetoric but felt they had no choice but to vote for him," Love says. "The economy was going so well. Now everything has shifted. When things are going badly, people feel they have less to lose by changing leaders."

As a rule, if the economy is going well then US presidents get re-elected. If it's going badly, they lose. Of the six presidents who experienced a recession in the lead-up to an election, five lost their re-election bid. All the presidents who didn't experience a recession during their first term won a second. 'Trump makes his own weather and that is something that ought to make Democrats fearful.' Stan Barnes, Republican strategist Republican strategist Stan Barnes isn't convinced this rule holds during a pandemic. "This is unlike any other election year in American history," he says. "I don't think your average American blames Trump for this economic downturn." He thinks emergencies like this work in favour of incumbent leaders, allowing them to dominate the discussion and project authority. "I'd rather be the Republicans than the Democrats going into November," he says. "Trump makes his own weather and that is something that ought to make Democrats fearful."

'Take a Zoloft' While Trump has been an omnipresent figure during the crisis, former vice-president and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has largely gone under the radar. That changed briefly this week when he unveiled a hat-trick of prominent endorsements: Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren. The pandemic accelerated the end of the Democratic primary and led the party to unify behind Biden more quickly than it would have otherwise. But while Biden is well-liked by Democrats, enthusiasm for him is low. A Washington Post poll recently found that just 24 per cent of his supporters felt highly enthusiastic about his candidacy - the lowest for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of polling. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden scored a hat-trick of endorsements this week. Credit:AP

"The palpable phenomenon here is we have a Democratic candidate no one gives a damn about," Barnes says. But there are upsides to being out of the spotlight. In recent weeks Biden has been accused of sexual assault by former Senate staffer Tara Reade, who says he molested her in 1993. Amid the wall-to-wall coverage of the virus, the allegation, which Biden denies, has got little airplay in the mainstream press. "If ever there were a year where a nominee might benefit from being invisible, it's this one," says Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia's Centre for Politics. Loading Sabato's advice to Democrats who are worried about Biden's lack of visibility: "Take a Zoloft and relax."

Digital domination By this stage of a normal election cycle, Trump and Biden would be holding big rallies to amp up their supporters. They would be mingling with donors to raise funds. Volunteers would be knocking on doors and registering people to vote. These activities have all moved online for now. In terms of person-to person campaigning, the election is likely to be far more condensed than Americans are used to. Both parties still have their glitzy conventions scheduled for August, but they could become online-only events if mass gatherings still deemed unsafe. Although he loves the thrill of his rallies, Trump is well-placed for a digitally-dominated campaign.

Trump has 77 million Twitter followers compared to Biden's 5 million; on Facebook he has 29 million followers compared to Biden's 2 million. His social media dominance allows him to get his message to voters without relying on direct voter contact or the mainstream media. Voters are unlikely to be so keen to vote in person during this election season. Credit:AP The pandemic has brought political fundraising to a virtual standstill, and that's bad news for Democrats. This would usually be a prime fundraising time for Biden, but both individual and corporate donors are distracted and wary of opening their wallets. Loading Trump and the Republican National Committee have an estimated $US225 million ($357 million) cash in hand, compared to $US20 million for Biden and the Democratic National Committee. Biden has been hosting "virtual fundraisers", but no one believes they can raise as much cash as real-life events.

As well as campaigning and fundraising, the pandemic is likely to change how many Americans vote. There is expected to be a surge in demand for mail-in ballots by voters who don't want to wait alongside strangers in lengthy lines. Voting rights advocates have been calling for billions of dollars in extra funding to help election authorities make polling places safe. Loading Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador, this week warned of "massive disenfranchisement" unless authorities extend early voting and make it easier to vote by mail. "If millions of people don’t vote because of health concerns, or if millions of votes remain uncounted as a result of poor preparation, many Americans will perceive the presidential election in November as illegitimate," he warned in a column for the Post.

A toss-up One thing that hasn't been transformed by the pandemic is opinion polling. After an initial bump, Trump's approval ratings are basically back where they started: an average favourability of 44.3 per cent, according to Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. The head-to-head polls also remain steady, with Biden ahead of Trump by an average of five to six points. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, a respected forecasting service, this month updated its presidential election projections. The site expects Biden to win 248 electoral college votes and Trump 233, putting both candidates within reach of the magic 270 needed for victory. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video