This is probably the match that everybody is expecting: the first encounter between two teams that find themselves at least between the eight favorites. Two teams with important names: Cristiano Ronaldo, Iniesta, Sergio Ramos. Two teams that ended up first in their qualifiers groups.

Spain is well known for its collective functioning that led them to win the UEFA European Championship in 2008 and 2012, and, of course, the World Cup in 2010, after beating the Netherlands 1–0 with Andrés Iniesta’s goal. Strongly influenced by the Catalonian football style (or should we say the Dutch?), Spain relies in its ball control and fluid circulation with one or two touches per player.

Portugal’s curriculum is not that strong. True, they won the last UEFA European Championship in 2016. But if we take a close look, its trajectory was not outstanding. Not a simple victory in the first part of the cup. Not even against Iceland, although we should say that this team became the revelation of the cup. Only one victory during the 90 minutes in the playoffs, and a surprising victory over France with a goal scored by Eder, who was not even called for the World Cup. Like Argentina, Portugal is a one-man dependent team: CR7.

What is at stake at this match? At first glance, it would seem not much. The group is completed by Morocco and Iran, which are clearly weaker teams than Spain or Portugal. Losing the first match should not be a lethal wound to any of the teams of the Iberian Peninsula.

However, we should not judge that fast. Morocco made it to the World cup after a fine participation in the qualifiers. Egypt, a well known African candidate, had it worse, despite having one of the stars of the moment, Mohamed Salah. Iran will be in the World Cup for the second time in a row. In 2014, Argentina had a really hard time against a team that practically did not leave its penalty area. You can check it online: you will count eleven Iranian players in the penalty area when Messi scored that amazing goal.

Of course, it is not only the result of Portugal against Spain that will count. The true final in the group B is the match between Morocco and Iran. The winner will be allowed to dream with the playoffs, and the loser (if there is one) will probably be eliminated. This is important for Spain and for Portugal. The loser might be facing a team that rests three points above them. And we all remember what happened to Spain in 2014…

In this scenario, the pressure increases for both European teams. While a tie might be a good result, leaving the responsibility of the classification in the two remaining games against what are supposed to be weaker rivals (which is, of course, just a presumption based on history ad names, and that does not mean everything in this wonderful game); a defeat will sow anxiety amongst the losers.

The reader might be thinking: ok, but what do I bet for? The collective game of Spain is, without any doubt, powerful. But when you’re losing, it becomes hard to sustain it. We should remember the defeat against Italy in the European Cup 2016: not a single shoot to goal in the first half, with Italy up on the scoreboard from the 30th minute. Portugal might profit from this. An early goal will allow Portugal to control the anxiety of Spain. And, in this sense, we should consider an important element: the injury of Carvajal.

Carvajal is probably one of the best right-backs in the world, but after getting injured in the final match of the European Champions League playing for Real Madrid, he will most certainly not recover in time for the first match. Odriozola, from the Real Sociedad, as good as he might be, is not Carvajal. And he will be facing Cristiano Ronaldo, who prefers the left side of the field. This might be a key micro-struggle in the match that could offer Portugal the possibility for an early strike. But never forget: commanding the defense we find Sergio Ramos, sided by Gerard Piqué, and behind them, De Gea. One dribble will not be enough. A closed match, without any doubt. And a lot to lose in it (and we are not talking about Ethereum!).

To contact us: