I know that it is sad news for some, but more than a few of us have assessed the situation, and the prognosis is not good for our friend (or perhaps the arch enemy to others of us), the test. We might be witnessing the death of testing. Tests are not going away tomorrow or even next year, but their value will fade over the upcoming years until, finally, tests are, once and for all, a thing of the past. At least that is one possible future.

Tests are largely a 20th century educational technology that had no small impact on learning organizations around the world, not to mention teachers and students. They’ve increased anxiety, kept people up all night (often with the assistance of caffeine), and consumed large chunks of people’s formative years.

They’ve also made people lots of money. There are the companies that help create and administer high-stakes tests. There are the-the companies that created those bubble tests and the machines that grade them. There are the test proctoring companies along with the many others that have created high-tech ways to prevent and/or detect cheating on tests. There are the test preparation companies. There are even researchers who’ve done well as consultants, helping people to design robust, valid and reliable tests. Testing is a multi-billion dollar industry.

Given this fact, why am I pointing to the death of the test? It is because of the explosion of big data, learning analytics, adaptive learning technology, developments around integrated assessments in games and simulations and much more. These technologies are making and will continue to make it possible to constantly monitor learner progress. Assessment will be embedded in the learning experiences. When you know how a student is making progress and exactly where that student is in terms of reaching a given goal, why do you need a test at the end? The student doesn’t even need to know that it is happening, and the data can be incredibly rich, giving insights and details often not afforded by traditional tests.

Such embedded assessment is the exception today, but not for long. That is why many testing companies and services are moving quickly into the broader assessment space. They realize that their survival depends upon their capacity to integrate in seamless ways with content, learning activities and experiences, simulations and learning environments. This is also why I have been urging educational publishing companies to start investing in feedback and assessment technologies. This is going to critical for their long-term success.

At the same time, I’m not convinced that all testing will die. Some learning communities will continue to use them even if they are technically unnecessary. Tests still play a cultural role in some learning contexts. My son is in martial arts and the “testing day” is an important and valued benchmark in community. Yes, there are plenty of other ways to assess, but the test is part of the experience in this community. The same is true in other learning contexts. Testing is not always used because it is the best way to measure learning. In these situations, testing will likely remain a valued part of the community. In some ways, however, this helps to make my point. Traditional testing is most certainly not the best or most effective means of measuring learning today. As the alternatives expand and the tools and resources for these alternatives become more readily available, tests will start the slow but certain journey to the educational technology cemetery, finding a lot alongside the slide rule and the overhead projector.