The Edmonton Oilers are having another mediocre season, currently sitting 6th in the Wildcard standings with a 28-30-7 record through 65 games and a -30 goal differential. Their recently fired GM1 was criticized for trading away strong offensive players for less talented role players and ultimately failing to surround Connor McDavid with top talent.

Those critics may have a solid argument as it appears that the only other player (outside of McDavid) on the team contributing in any significant manner to the team’s offense is Leon Draisaitl. McDavid and Draisaitl have scored 73 of the Oiler’s 183 goals this year and contributed to 35.7% of the teams total points2.The league average this year amongst all 31 teams has been 23.7% for percentage of points contributed by the team’s top two scorers, with the second highest team at 28.9% (Colorado).

Given this, which teams are most reliant on their top 1, 2, 3…6 players for scoring/offense and how do the Edmonton Oilers compare?

Measuring Offense

Aside from looking at goals and points3, the metrics Goals Created4 and Offensive Point Shares5 were looked at to determine the contribution of players to their respective team’s offense.

Both of these additional metrics can be found at hockey-reference.com with the latter being developed by Justin Kubatko as a similar all-encompassing metric to Bill James’ Win Shares in baseball.

Top 6 Comparison

The table below depicts the cumulative percent contribution of the top 1 – 6 players of each team in each respective offensive category. The color gradient is based on the cumulative percent being above or below average amongst all teams, (red teams rely more than the average team on top players for majority of their offense while green teams rely less on them).

Player Share of Total Team Offense for Selected Offensive Statistics (as of February 22, 2019)

Players: Goals Points Goals Created Offensive Point Shares

Team Top Player Top 2 Players Top 3 Players Top 4 Players Top 5 Players Top 6 Players ANA 11.9% 20.7% 28.9% 37.0% 45.2% 51.9% ARI 8.9% 16.6% 23.6% 30.6% 37.6% 44.6% BOS 17.0% 30.2% 41.8% 52.2% 59.9% 64.8% BUF 21.6% 32.9% 41.3% 49.1% 55.1% 60.5% CAR 13.6% 23.2% 32.8% 41.8% 49.7% 57.1% CBJ 17.3% 29.8% 41.4% 52.9% 60.7% 66.5% CGY 13.5% 26.5% 37.7% 48.4% 55.2% 61.0% CHI 18.8% 35.3% 48.8% 58.9% 65.2% 71.0% COL 15.9% 30.8% 43.3% 53.7% 60.7% 65.7% DAL 17.0% 30.7% 41.2% 47.7% 54.2% 60.1% DET 15.1% 27.9% 36.6% 45.3% 54.1% 61.0% EDM 21.7% 41.0% 52.4% 62.7% 67.5% 71.7% FLA 14.4% 27.6% 39.2% 50.3% 59.1% 64.6% LAK 12.0% 21.1% 30.3% 38.7% 47.2% 54.2% MIN 14.1% 24.7% 33.5% 41.8% 48.8% 55.9% MTL 14.3% 25.3% 36.3% 45.6% 52.2% 58.2% NJD 14.5% 24.6% 34.1% 41.9% 49.2% 55.9% NSH 13.5% 24.5% 32.8% 40.1% 47.4% 53.1% NYI 12.3% 23.4% 33.3% 42.7% 50.3% 57.9% NYR 15.6% 29.9% 38.3% 46.1% 53.3% 59.9% OTT 15.1% 29.6% 41.4% 48.4% 55.4% 62.4% PHI 13.6% 23.7% 33.3% 42.4% 50.8% 59.3% PIT 13.4% 25.4% 35.4% 44.0% 52.2% 59.3% SJS 14.3% 26.9% 39.0% 48.9% 58.3% 64.6% STL 15.1% 28.5% 38.0% 44.1% 50.3% 55.9% TBL 14.6% 28.5% 41.0% 49.8% 56.9% 62.3% TOR 16.2% 29.5% 39.5% 48.1% 55.7% 62.9% VAN 15.4% 27.8% 40.2% 47.3% 52.7% 58.0% VEG 10.9% 20.8% 30.6% 39.3% 47.5% 53.0% WPG 14.5% 27.5% 39.1% 46.9% 53.6% 59.9% WSH 21.3% 30.2% 39.1% 47.0% 54.5% 61.9% ANA 10.6% 19.3% 26.4% 33.2% 39.9% 46.5% ARI 9.3% 17.7% 24.8% 31.9% 37.8% 43.7% BOS 14.3% 27.7% 39.0% 49.7% 58.2% 64.0% BUF 14.0% 25.8% 37.1% 45.0% 52.2% 57.4% CAR 14.6% 26.2% 35.1% 42.2% 48.2% 53.8% CBJ 13.3% 24.4% 34.7% 42.1% 48.6% 54.8% CGY 13.0% 24.3% 35.4% 45.1% 54.6% 60.5% CHI 16.6% 27.9% 38.9% 46.6% 53.2% 59.8% COL 14.6% 28.9% 40.7% 48.3% 55.6% 61.2% DAL 13.8% 25.2% 35.1% 42.1% 48.9% 55.2% DET 13.0% 23.5% 32.0% 38.7% 45.4% 51.7% EDM 19.2% 35.7% 48.2% 54.8% 60.9% 64.9% FLA 12.7% 24.6% 34.8% 44.5% 53.7% 60.5% LAK 11.7% 20.4% 29.2% 36.6% 43.8% 50.7% MIN 11.3% 21.9% 30.6% 39.3% 47.3% 53.8% MTL 10.8% 20.2% 29.4% 37.8% 45.9% 53.7% NJD 10.1% 19.1% 27.1% 34.8% 41.5% 48.0% NSH 10.5% 20.5% 28.6% 36.3% 43.2% 49.5% NYI 11.0% 21.0% 30.0% 38.9% 45.3% 51.4% NYR 13.1% 23.0% 32.5% 40.9% 47.2% 52.4% OTT 12.3% 23.9% 33.0% 41.7% 49.7% 56.7% PHI 12.7% 24.3% 34.6% 42.3% 48.3% 54.1% PIT 13.0% 24.0% 35.0% 44.8% 54.0% 59.5% SJS 11.1% 20.2% 29.2% 38.1% 46.4% 54.7% STL 13.1% 24.0% 32.1% 39.4% 45.2% 50.6% TBL 15.4% 27.4% 38.6% 44.5% 50.2% 55.8% TOR 12.3% 23.8% 34.2% 44.0% 50.6% 56.9% VAN 12.4% 22.9% 32.3% 38.4% 44.2% 49.2% VEG 9.1% 18.0% 26.2% 33.6% 40.4% 47.1% WPG 12.8% 25.0% 33.5% 40.5% 47.5% 53.6% WSH 12.7% 22.9% 32.8% 42.6% 49.4% 56.1% ANA 9.9% 18.7% 26.6% 33.6% 40.2% 46.3% ARI 8.7% 17.2% 24.3% 30.7% 36.9% 42.9% BOS 14.3% 28.4% 39.7% 49.6% 56.7% 63.8% BUF 14.4% 27.7% 38.2% 44.8% 51.2% 57.1% CAR 14.3% 25.4% 34.4% 42.1% 48.6% 53.9% CBJ 13.1% 25.9% 36.5% 44.5% 50.8% 56.8% CGY 13.1% 24.7% 36.0% 46.0% 54.5% 60.6% CHI 17.2% 29.7% 41.6% 49.2% 56.3% 62.8% COL 14.5% 28.5% 41.4% 49.5% 55.9% 61.5% DAL 14.7% 25.8% 36.7% 43.3% 49.6% 56.0% DET 13.6% 23.6% 33.2% 40.5% 47.5% 54.0% EDM 19.2% 37.2% 49.3% 56.6% 62.5% 66.4% FLA 12.9% 24.2% 35.3% 45.4% 53.4% 61.3% LAK 11.8% 20.4% 28.3% 35.8% 43.4% 50.7% MIN 12.0% 22.2% 31.4% 39.1% 46.4% 53.4% MTL 10.9% 20.7% 30.4% 39.7% 47.5% 54.6% NJD 11.3% 20.5% 28.3% 35.7% 43.0% 49.1% NSH 9.3% 18.5% 27.2% 35.8% 42.6% 49.1% NYI 10.7% 20.7% 30.1% 39.4% 46.2% 52.7% NYR 13.8% 24.9% 34.1% 42.0% 48.7% 54.4% OTT 13.1% 25.4% 35.0% 43.5% 50.5% 57.2% PHI 12.1% 24.0% 33.8% 42.2% 48.9% 55.4% PIT 12.7% 23.4% 34.2% 44.6% 53.2% 59.5% SJS 10.5% 20.4% 30.0% 39.3% 48.5% 57.1% STL 13.2% 25.2% 33.1% 40.7% 45.8% 51.0% TBL 14.6% 27.3% 39.3% 45.9% 52.0% 56.9% TOR 12.7% 24.4% 35.2% 44.7% 51.9% 58.4% VAN 13.2% 24.3% 34.5% 40.1% 45.7% 50.8% VEG 9.5% 18.4% 27.1% 34.8% 41.9% 48.8% WPG 12.8% 23.7% 33.0% 41.7% 48.6% 54.4% WSH 15.0% 24.2% 33.3% 41.8% 49.1% 56.4% ANA 18.8% 35.9% 50.6% 65.1% 78.3% 91.4% ARI 14.3% 25.0% 34.9% 43.2% 51.2% 58.6% BOS 24.1% 46.2% 65.4% 78.5% 91.0% 99.8% BUF 25.5% 47.6% 62.6% 73.4% 83.2% 90.8% CAR 22.8% 38.8% 50.1% 61.1% 68.8% 75.6% CBJ 19.0% 37.5% 51.3% 60.2% 68.8% 76.4% CGY 17.1% 31.6% 45.2% 57.5% 69.7% 74.9% CHI 25.8% 43.8% 58.8% 69.5% 78.2% 86.0% COL 20.3% 39.9% 57.1% 66.4% 75.4% 81.3% DAL 27.0% 47.0% 64.7% 77.8% 88.6% 99.3% DET 21.2% 36.6% 50.6% 60.4% 69.6% 78.2% EDM 36.1% 68.4% 86.5% 95.5% 103.8% 108.4% FLA 17.0% 33.4% 48.6% 61.6% 74.5% 84.9% LAK 18.2% 32.2% 45.5% 57.9% 67.0% 75.6% MIN 19.2% 32.9% 46.5% 58.3% 69.5% 80.4% MTL 15.5% 29.1% 42.6% 54.5% 65.5% 73.5% NJD 16.4% 28.2% 39.9% 48.5% 56.8% 64.1% NSH 15.4% 28.9% 41.0% 51.4% 61.7% 68.3% NYI 15.5% 29.5% 41.9% 54.0% 63.3% 71.2% NYR 22.4% 39.6% 52.2% 62.2% 70.1% 76.7% OTT 19.8% 38.9% 53.7% 66.5% 74.0% 81.3% PHI 16.7% 32.6% 45.3% 56.3% 65.5% 73.1% PIT 17.0% 30.9% 44.5% 57.9% 70.7% 76.4% SJS 14.0% 26.5% 38.6% 49.1% 59.3% 69.4% STL 19.2% 37.0% 48.2% 56.1% 63.9% 71.2% TBL 19.8% 36.6% 52.0% 58.5% 64.5% 69.7% TOR 17.3% 32.8% 47.8% 62.5% 70.1% 77.3% VAN 25.0% 41.6% 56.2% 62.8% 68.6% 73.8% VEG 12.9% 24.4% 34.6% 43.8% 52.4% 60.9% WPG 16.2% 28.8% 39.1% 49.2% 56.2% 63.0% WSH 21.9% 34.8% 46.0% 55.8% 64.4% 72.4%

Comparing the percent contribution of each team’s top 6 forwards on these four metrics its clear Edmonton is the most reliant on their top players for the majority of their offense. In fact they have the highest percentage across all four categories from the top player through to the top 6 players.

Other teams with prominent showings across all categories include Chicago, Tampa Bay, Boston, Buffalo, Colorado, and Dallas. The fact these teams show up make intuitive sense as the all fit the category of either a team with a top scorer in the league or a team that is commonly known to have one major line of offense6.

Team's Reliance on Top 2 Forwards

Reducing our focus to these seven teams let’s take a look at the marginal impact a team’s top 2 players have in comparison to the other top 6 players.

By combining the totals of the top 2 players and top 3 to 6 players for each offensive category and comparing the difference to the output from the top 3 to 6 we can see just how much more (or less) a team’s top 2 players are contributing vs the rest of the top 6 players.

The graph below shows the percentage difference for this marginal impact for all four offensive statistics.

Difference Between Cumulative Top 2 Players and Top 3 to 6 Players

Percentage difference in four offensive categories between the cumulative top 1 and 2 players and top 3,4,5, and 6 players of selected NHL teams. Data Table

Unmistakably Edmonton gets significantly more output from their top 2 forwards (McDavid and Draisaitl) vs the rest of their top 6 players in comparison to other teams. In fact, Edmonton is the only team in the league whose top two players contribute more points and more goals created than the team’s top 3 through 6 players. Similarly, the 71% difference in offensive point shares is considerably higher than the next closest team in Vancouver with a 29.3% difference, (the average across the league is -13.8%)7.

There has been some discussion lately regarding the Art Ross Trophy and who is the current MVP in league, along with what makes a player the most valuable to his team8. Kucherov is having an amazing season but based on the above analysis it appears Edmonton is way more reliant on Mcdavid’s services than Tampa Bay is on Kucherov.