Douglas Heye is a CNN political commentator and ex-deputy chief of staff to former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

(CNN) However the special election for Pennsylvania's Congressional District turns out -- and, at this writing, it remains essentially a tie, while absentee ballots are counted -- it represents a major loss for the GOP. It is the latest canary in the coalmine for the party.

Douglas Heye

As happens after any special election, the losing side will explain what made this race unique and, they hope, an outlier. They do this while throwing their candidate under the bus. We call this spin.

If Rick Saccone, the Republican, wins, it will be nothing near an affirmation of his candidacy. His fundraising lagged, propped up by outside spending, while the fact that he was anti-union in a pro-union, blue-collar part of the state -- where Republicans are typically more friendly to unions -- did not help his case . He just never caught on the way a Republican should in that red district.

If Conor Lamb, the Democrat, wins, his particular candidacy can hardly be seen as the portent his party would like. Few Democratic congressional nominees in the midterms will resemble Conor Lamb, who proved to be what Democrats had hoped failed Georgia special election candidate Jon Ossoff would be. Campaigning in part against Nancy Pelosi practically makes Lamb a unicorn in -- and perhaps future model for -- today's Democratic Party.

Indeed, Lamb more resembles the "backwards" kind of voter that Hillary Clinton blamed for her loss in places like PA-18 than the average member of the current House Democratic Caucus.

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