Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in the closing days of the presidential race, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows.

Forty-five percent of likely voters support Clinton, while 42 percent would vote for Trump, according to the poll, which was conducted by Morning Consult on Friday and Saturday.


Despite a topsy-turvy, nearly-two-year-long campaign, the election is ending on a note of stability: Clinton’s 3-point margin over Trump is identical to last week’s POLITICO/Morning Consult survey, though both candidates’ vote shares have risen as undecided voters have made their choice.

“While our final poll before the election shows a tight race, Clinton has maintained her small lead in our polling for weeks now," said Morning Consult Co-Founder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp. "There is little that could swing voters now in the final hours leading up to Election Day.”

But there remains a source of uncertainty in the eventual outcome: A combined 12 percent of likely voters say they will cast their ballots for Libertarian Gary Johnson (8 percent) or Green Party nominee Jill Stein (4 percent), neither of whom is likely to win a single state.

"Considering Trump and Clinton are highly unpopular, we're not surprised voters are opting for third-party candidates,” Dropp added. “When we field a survey we present all the top options a voter will see on their ballot. Not all other polls apply this methodology. The main question is whether those expressing support for the third-party candidates will in fact vote for them on Election Day.”

The poll shows a shrinking gender gap in the final days of the campaign. Trump leads by just a single point among male voters, 44 percent to 43 percent. Clinton, meanwhile, has a 6-point lead among women, 47 percent to 41 percent.

The racial gap is also smaller in the poll than in other public surveys. Trump has a 10-point lead among white voters, 49 percent to 39 percent. But Clinton’s leads with African-American (80 percent to 11 percent) and Hispanic voters (61 percent to 27 percent) show the Democratic nominee lagging President Barack Obama’s performance with both groups in 2012.

There is a wide divide by educational attainment among white voters, the poll shows. Trump has a 19-point lead among white voters without a college degree. But Clinton leads by 7 points among white college graduates, 48 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton is entering Election Day better-liked than Trump, though both have historically high unfavorable ratings for presidential nominees. Forty-two percent of likely voters have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Clinton, and 56 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Trump, on the other hand, is viewed very or somewhat favorably by 37 percent, with 61 percent holding an unfavorable opinion – including a 51-percent majority who view him very unfavorably.

After a bruising two-year election that featured seesawing polls and no shortage of blockbuster moments, voters said that Trump's comments about women and minorities were very important in helping them decide who to support.

But nearly one-third of independent voters said the FBI's review of Clinton's emails made them less likely to vote for the secretary of state.

Should she win the White House on Tuesday, the poll paints a grim picture for Clinton's dealings with Capitol Hill. More than half of respondents said they support a continued GOP-led investigation into her use of a private email server -- nearly a quarter of Democrats agree. A hostile Congress will make it difficult for Clinton to get any of her legislative priorities through.

When it comes to control of Congress, half the electorate said they believe it's important for Republicans to keep control of the House and Senate if Clinton wins. And Republicans generally believe that Speaker Paul Ryan should keep his spot atop the House of Representatives no matter who wins. Roughly half of GOP voters say the Wisconsin Republican should retain the speaker's gavel no matter who wins the White House. Roughly one quarter believe he should abdicate the position no matter who is president, and a roughly equal amount don't know.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,482 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Thirty-nine percent of likely voters self-identified as Democrats, 33 percent as Republicans and 28 percent as independents.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these four documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2eANA03 Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2fpwFyZ Topical questions — Toplines: http://politi.co/2f5SaEd Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2fpwKCN