If you all have learned anything, it is that there is no way I (Laurie) would actually be writing a post breaking down plays and statistics :)

But to help FrenchFred post his thoughts on some statistics regarding Peyton Manning's performance in the shotgun versus under center, I gladly obliged to create the post. For questions/debate on anything after my intro, you will need to talk to him (including any potential complaints on not only no "Whorfin" option in the poll, but NO POLL whatsoever!) :)

They're all yours, FrenchFred!

Is Peyton Manning really that bad Under Center? Is he really Shotgun-reliant as most are saying?

First, I would like to thank Laurie for taking the time to find me useful data regarding the subject and helping me publish this article with a nice presentation.

Second, all the data is based on Manning's split stats available on Pro-Football-References, which divides "shotgun" and "under center" explicitly (not available on ESPN) but does not distinguish between the shotgun or pistol formations.

Third, The data might not be 100 percent exact if you compared it to the 2013 stats provided in this 2014 PFF article orESPN split stats. For example:

number of pass attempts Under Center is 93 on the PFF article when it's 91 with the datas available on ESPN and 100 on Pro-football-reference

number of completion is 60 for PFF and ESPN, and 67 for Pro-Football-Reference

number of TDs is 13 for PFF and ESPN, and 12 for Pro-Football-Reference

number of INT is 0 for the 3 websites

I began my research with ESPN, but as I was limited to the year 2008 and after, I turned to Pro-Football-Reference, which is much more complete (gives directly the snaps Under Center and gives information from Peyton Manning's rookie year)

As a short introduction to the important part, here is how I see the differences between taking a snap under center or in the shotgun from a QB's point of view (and I base these differences on quick throws since I consider the difference between the two to be erased when keeping the ball more than 2 to 2.5 seconds).

To put it simply, I see the Under Center formation as "eyes to brain to arm" process, where the Shotgun is more of a "brain to eyes to arm" process.

The Under Center formation allows the QB to take visual information of the very first movement of the defense while receiving the ball. That first information is analyzed while the QB is dropping back to either hand off the ball to the running back or to prepare for the throw. That first information gives the quarterback the indication of where he will orient his throw, going for his first option or directly going to his second or third one). He will then deliver the ball with his arm while his eyes confirm his first information. So "eyes to brain to arm" process.

The Shotgun allows the quarterback to scan the whole field easier and process the movement of the defense before the snap. The QB will have his strategy prepared in advance and will have to rely on it to make his quick throw. Why will he rely on it? It's because as soon as he gives the signal to snap the ball, he will be concentrated on receiving the ball, which will tunnel his vision. As soon as he receives the ball, he will quickly scan the field in direction to the predetermined place he is supposed to throw the ball and will throw almost in the same time. Hence, "brain to eyes to arm" process.

This nuance between the two processes is the reason why in the NFL an experienced QB can destroy a not perfectly organized defense just with his pre-snap read in the shotgun. Meanwhile a young QB will have to use the Under Center formation (or have specific plays allowing him to compensate his lack of experience, like the read-option) to react to the movements of the defense more than act according to his pre-snap read.

That nuance is also the reason why you hear everyone say "he was looking at X receiver the whole time" when he is in shotgun formation even for very quick throws.

Before I give you figures to think about, I want to say that not one strategy is better than the other - both need to be implemented in the playbook and both have their advantages/disadvantages, their own variants depending on the talent of the quarterback's teammates, on the down/distance and clock situation, etc..

If you still don't trust my appreciation of the nuances between Shotgun and Under Center, here is the recap of the percentage for each formation from 1998 to 2015 (early on, Manning played a bunch of time Under Center):

Now the fun part - is Manning really much better in one formation than the other?

The short answer is that yes, he is much better Under Center as this table shows:

*Side note: for those screaming; "let him play the no-huddle all the time," I intentionally left the percentage of Huddle/No Huddle he played his entire career. As it's not part of my article, I'll just stop at that on this subject... *Fun fact: PM has run for 18 TDs his entire career...

Globally, Manning has a better QB rating - more TDs (passing and running), a better Y/A (yards/attempts), and fewer INTs - while spending 41% of the time Under Center.

The good point regarding his Shotgun formation is mainly his completion percentage and the number of first downs.

But if you think my article is finished because I pointed out that on average during his 17 years in the league he had better results Under Center, but you are Definitely Wrong!!! An average is not good until the trends are telling the same story. That's why I selected a few indicators to better see the trend.

The first defining success indicator is his QB Rating (I see it as the Efficiency Indicator). For the 17 years considered, Manning had a whopping 15 times with a QB rating superior when Under Center than in the Shotgun. Only in years 2009 and 2012 was Manning more efficient in the Shotgun:

The second indicator I selected is the Completion percentage. Here it is quite clear that Manning is regularly more precise in the Shotgun as 11 times he had a better percentage in the Shotgun against the six times he had a better percentage Under Center:

You may think that if Manning completes more Shotgun passes, and as he was using more and more that formation, he should have more yards/attempts later on. The results surprised me - being Under Center allowed Manning to have 14 times better yards/attempts percentage (13 times better adjusted Y/A percentage) compared to only three times better ratio in the Shotgun:

Finally, the most amazing point I can make is that Manning is regularly better in TD percentage, first-down percentage and INT percentage:

Those indicators show a tendency to be more efficient Under Center than in the Shotgun.

When has Manning been the most impressive Under Center?

Yes, the year he broke every record in 2013 - 12 TD to 0 INT ratio (an unbelievable rate of 132.3) Under Center, compared to 43 TD to 10 INT ratio in Shotgun (still a great rate of 112.0):

When has Manning been the most interesting Under Center?

In his second best year in 2004, were he had also much better results Under Center than in Shotgun as he posted a 32 TD to 4 INT ratio Under Center (rate of 131.3), compared to only 17 TD to 6 INT ratio in Shotgun (rate of 108.0) while spending approximately the same number of snaps in both formation.

I find this year 2004 very interesting because it proves that during his golden era 2003-2006, PM was able to spend half of his time Under Center and be a real killer in it:

So what can be said about Manning in 2015 ?

If we look at 2015, there is one thing you already know - Manning has worse results than the six previous years by far, both in the Shotgun and Under Center.

But still, it is difficult to say that he is better in the Shotgun even if he spent 91% of his time in it:

I will not comment on the 2015 results above for two reasons - the sample is really limited and I have my own bias, so I would choose the stats I prefer in order to try to manipulate you (at least a bit).

So finally I am going to answer to the questions I posted at the outset - is Manning really that bad Under Center and is he really Shotgun-reliant as most are saying?

The answer is "no" he isn't bad. In reality, he can be really efficient when put Under Center.

And I don't think he is as reliant to the Shotgun as some are saying as an excuse to its bad plays.

I will probably be seen as crazy, but I think the best solution for Manning is to play more Under Center now that the O-line is showing good progress (that is the case for some games now), which will also limit the number of times the defense will be able to intercept him by reading his eyes after he has gotten the snap.

To support my argument as you can find in the PFF article, the defenses when facing Manning in 2013 were pressuring him on average after 2.52 seconds (his average time to throw was 2.32 seconds) when he was Under Center, which was significantly slower than in the Shotgun where he was pressured after 2.25 seconds only (he had almost the same time to throw at 2.36 seconds).

And because I'm sure you‘ll stay gentle in your discussion of this, you have the right to this bonus question for debate -is Manning really that bad as the year goes by?

Answer: No, he is worse only at the beginning of the following year:

Thanks! I hope you enjoyed the read and that you'll be able to gently debate it (*note: there will be no poll as the French will always choose the "none of the above" option in contradiction with the "Whorfin" one).



