After months of hitting the Gov. Jerry Brown’s 25 percent overall water conservation goal, California fell behind for the first time in January, but still has a shot at making the nine-month savings mandate.

Since June, California has reduced its water usage by 24.8 percent compared to the same time period in 2013, the state Water Board announced Thursday. That leaves the state 96 percent of the way to its goal of saving 1.2 million acre-feet of water by the end of February.

Through January, California has saved 1.1 million acre-feet of water, or about 374 billion gallons – the equivalent of filling Irvine Lake 40 times.

January, though, was the fourth straight month California’s water savings were below 25 percent; the state saved 17.1 percent in January, which caused the cumulative rate to dip below the mandate and puts the state’s ability to meet the 25 percent threshold by the end of February in jeopardy.

“We always knew it would be close,” said Max Gomberg, the climate and conservation manager for the Water Board. “Twenty-five percent is an ambitious goal. Everyone should feel good about what we accomplished.”

In Orange County, 18 of 27 water districts are above their individual mandates – which range from 8 to 36 percent – through January and have a good shot at staying there over the next couple of weeks.

Nine districts also made their January goal, with Mesa Water District saving the most at 39.8 percent, according to the Water Board.

Mesa Water, though, took drastic action after having low numbers in November and December. The district, which serves Costa Mesa and a portion of Newport Beach, prohibited all watering except for one day a week for single-family homes.

That got it “back on track,” said district spokeswoman Noelle Collins.

Of the nine water districts that are still below their goals, four are particularly in danger of coming up short – Newport Beach, Fullerton, La Habra and San Juan Capistrano.

Newport Beach and Fullerton are in the most danger, more than 7 percentage points behind their 28 percent goal with one month to go.

Seal Beach, Santa Ana, and the Golden State Water Company West Orange, which is in Anaheim, are in the best shape as February wraps up, with each district more than 5 percentage points ahead of their goals. Santa Ana has to cut its nine-month water usage by 12 percent, Golden State by 16 percent and Seal Beach by 8 percent.

Most of the other districts in Orange County are in the same boat as the state generally: it all comes down to February.

And that could prove problematic.

WINTER WATER WOES

State officials say they are not surprised by the increasingly poor savings over the past several months. Typically, people use less water in the winter, so the opportunities to find savings are also fewer, officials said.

On Thursday, those officials also took an ambivalent approach to predicting how February might play out: In Northern California, which has received the lion’s share of El Niño rainfall so far, people could either not see a need to water their lawns or they could think the drought is over and become careless.

“Folks see rain and think the drought is over,” said Felicia Marcus, chairwoman of the Water Board. “We shouldn’t relax our guard.”

In Southern California, one of the warmest and driest Februaries in history could either be a stark reminder of the drought or lead to more water use – especially compared with a relatively wet February 2013.

“It’s been pretty hot lately, so we’re hoping people forget to turn on their sprinklers,” said Bill Murray, the public works director for Garden Grove, which had a nearly 30 percent reduction in January compared to 2013 and is 2.2 percentage points ahead of its 20 percent cumulative goal. “It all depends on what happened three years ago this month.”

Still, if Orange County cities and California fail to meet their respective mandates, it is unclear what consequences would follow.

REPERCUSSIONS AHEAD?

The Water Board has continually tried to enforce its emergency regulations, enacted in May 2015; those regulations include possible fines for those not complying with the conservation efforts.

Since June, the board has issued 97 warning letters and 119 other documents asking for compliance – but only four fines; one of those fines has been paid, officials said.

At the end of February, the only penalties likely to be levied will be against those districts the Water Board views as egregiously failing to conserve – not those that made an effort, said Matthew Buffleben, the chief of the Water Board’s special investigations unit.

“Residents and suppliers are making the necessary sacrifices,” said Buffleben. “(But) some suppliers have simply not done enough. … We could have saved more if (those) not meeting the standard did more.”

For those districts struggling – but trying – to save water, the board will likely continue educating them on what they and their customers can do to improve, he said.

Overall, though, state officials are pleased with how seriously Californians have taken the drought, which on Thursday tempered their disappointment over declining savings month-over-month.

In fact, despite missing its monthly savings goal, the state still set a record: In January, California residences used an average of 61 gallons of water per person a day – the fewest in the state’s history and down from 67 gallons in December.

Still, state officials say a dry February, and the uncertainty over what March and April will bring, underscores the need for Californians to keep cutting their water use – which is why the Water Board extended the conservation regulations through October.

Some districts fear that the extension could actually hinder them, with Murray of Garden Grove saying, “People get burned out saving all the time.”

Still, state officials say the drought isn’t over yet and saving for the future is crucial.

“We’re hoping for every raindrop and every snowflake we can handle,” Marcus said. “A warm and dry February has proved that we can’t count on El Niño to save us. … We have to stay the course. We have to keep it up.”

Contact the writer: 714-796-6979 or chaire@ocregister.com