China, we all know, is run by an autocratic, dictatorial regime which brooks no dissent and is highly secretive about the problems and challenges the country faces. That has been the case for very many years. However, although its behaviour does seem to be getting worse, logic would nevertheless still dictate that when faced with the outbreak of a novel disease the Chinese government would work hard to contain it. That was certainly the case in 2002, when China responded to Sars by working with the World Health Organisation to bring the disease under control.

So why, when Covid-19 was discovered, did China instead respond with what many believe to be cynical lies and denials?

The Chinese authorities were alerted to the threat the outbreak posed when human-to-human transmission was confirmed in early December, just as they were about to sign a trade deal with the USA ending the damaging standoff between the two countries. Was the reason that the government closed down any mention of the outbreak through December and January to protect this deal?

Phase 1 of the deal was set to lift tariffs on about $200 billion of Chinese exports. However, if the deal hadn’t been agreed on December 15 then the US intended to impose wider sanctions on Chinese exports. As it happened, the deal was agreed on December 15 2019 and then signed exactly a month later on January 15. This was a critical period. Any indication in this time that China had a serious health crisis which may have pointed the finger at their biological labs and/or their appalling wet markets could have led to wider sanctions being applied.

During this vital period, the Chinese authorities systematically suppressed whistle blowers. Dr Li Wenliang, who first publicly raised the outbreak, was silenced and later died, but he was not alone. He had been reporting observations made by Dr Ai Fen earlier in December 2019 and there were others who observed the human-to-human nature of transmission, a vital fact denied by the Chinese authorities at the time. According to The Lancet medical journal there were at least six known human-to-human cases before December 15 and strong indications this had happened in November. Yet it wasn’t until December 31 that it was first reported to the WHO.