But the district includes a few Columbus suburbs, where Democrats could boost turnout. Democratic candidates ran at least 15 points ahead of 2016 presidential margins in special elections in less favorable districts last year, including Montana’s at-large district, Kansas’ 4th, and South Carolina’s 5th. And there is evidence that the March 13 special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District (which Trump carried by nearly 20 points) is going to be competitive.

The timing of this Ohio election is a bit unusual. The primary will take place the same day (May 8) as the regular primary for the November election, which should boost turnout for the special election considering the competitive primaries for governor and U.S. Senate. The special general election will take place Aug. 7.

Given that the special election would elect a member of Congress who may only be needed for a lame-duck session, Democratic strategists could choose to sit out the August race and focus on the November race or other seats. But Republicans could also be too busy putting out fires in other districts across the country ahead of November to focus on Ohio’s 12th in August. A low turnout race toward the end of summer could benefit the energized party, which right now is the Democrats.

The filing deadline (Feb. 7) is still two weeks away and the Republican field is still taking shape. State Sen. Kevin Bacon, state Sen. Troy Balderson, and Delaware County prosecutor Carol O’Brien are running while Air Force veteran Tim Kane (who’s worked for the Hoover Institution) and Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan are potential candidates. And there’s still time for others to jump in. Democrats could benefit from a socially conservative GOP nominee, but it’s not clear any of the mentioned folks fit that mold.

On the Democratic side, former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott looks like the likely nominee after former state Rep. Jay Goyal declined to run. Franklin County Recorder Daniel O’Connor Jr. has been mentioned as a potential candidate, as well.