Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign revolved around “It’s the economy, stupid.” In 2008, Barack Obama rode the “Yes we can” wave to the White House. For Jeb Bush, a snappy slogan will be the least of his worries in 2016. The former Florida governor, and Bush brand heir, needs to convince US voters that he is his “own man”. Jeb has neither his father George H W Bush’s curator-like charm nor the puckish enthusiasm of his older brother, George W Bush. Getting to that White House finish line will take some doing.

In December 2014, Jeb Bush finally gave in to his party pleaders and announced the intent to “actively explore the possibility” of running for US president. Soon after, the conservative moneymen started queuing up in his corner. Rick Wilson, a Florida political consultant, said: “The big institutional donors of the Republican Party want to know where to put their money and Jeb has now shown them.” He is expected to pull in a whopping $ 100 million by this summer and that is just a crack in the floodgates.

In theory, Jeb Bush has the finances and brand power to take on the Clinton juggernaut. The problem is that Republicans traditionally triumph on foreign policy platforms, not domestic ones. Jeb has strong fiscal fundamentals as a former governor but sounds uncertain on foreign affairs. His opinion on the Iraq war kept changing after a Fox News interview in March 2015, when he said that it was the right thing to do, even in hindsight, and knowing the consequences. Faced with immediate political criticism, Jeb subsequently changed his stance to “I don’t know”, “mistakes were made” and finally “I would not have gone into Iraq”.

Then there is President Obama, who has a lot riding on the next election result. Since 2011, when Democrats lost the lower house, Obama has been getting by on executive orders that could be nullified by a Republican president. These orders constitute the bulk of his legacy, including immigration and gun control reforms, and will motivate him to trip up the Republican bid. Furthermore, Obama owes Bill Clinton his second term in office. Former President Clinton’s humdinger of a speech, at the 2012 Democratic National Convention, tore up the Romney-Ryan ticket and swung the electoral momentum Obama’s way.

By normalising relations with Cuba, President Obama has made it harder for Jeb Bush to carry his home state. A 2014 poll by the Florida International University showed that 78 percent Cuban-Americans wanted diplomatic relations restored with Cuba. This traditionally ‘red’ voting bloc will likely lean left in 2016 as a thank you to Obama. Coupled with his immigration policy revamp that benefits undocumented Hispanic workers, the majority of Florida’s 17 percent Latino electorate could well vote Democrat. If all other demographics keep to polling trends, things could get hairy for Jeb. Without the state’s 29 electoral votes, Republicans will struggle to compete nationwide.

At age 62, commentators question Jeb Bush’s desire to run at all. They wonder if Jeb really wants to run, or thinks he needs to. One explanation is that he seeks to restore the family name from dings caused by his older brother and former president, George W Bush. Indeed, Jeb has, to date, answered as many questions about his brother’s time in office as he has about his own political positions. Talking to reporters in Nevada recently, a weary Jeb eventually retorted: “If I run, it will be 2016, not 2000.” It is as Donald Trump, the real estate mogul, suggests, “He’s not a happy guy. He’s not enjoying it.”

In many ways, Hillary Clinton is a bad matchup for Jeb Bush. The inexperience tag will not stick to a former secretary of state, nor can he sneer at her money since they both represent the ‘one percent’. Then there is the historic nature of Hillary’s candidacy, which will bring female voters out in force. Furthermore, Jeb has now ruefully realised the need for his brother’s appeal among Christian conservatives to survive the Republican primary, even though this may hurt him in the big race. Matthew Dowd, a Republican strategist, however, warns that George W Bush’s positive personal ratings do not mean voters want a sibling in the Oval Office.

That said, one does not become a state governor twice through dumb luck alone. It is likely that as his campaign solidifies, so will the sting in his sound bites. Unfortunately for Jeb Bush, public opinion favours Hillary Clinton despite ‘Emailgate’ and new nepotism charges concerning her brother, Tony Rodham. A recent George Washington University poll showed Jeb’s approval rating at 35 percent while Hillary coasted 26 points higher. Ironically, for Jeb to win, he needs an event similar to the one that shaped his brother’s legacy: the attack on 9/11. For without another serious homeland hit on Obama’s watch, the Republicans will find their hawkish agenda a very hard sell.

The writer is a freelance columnist and audio engineer based in Islamabad