Concern is growing over the Golden State Warriors’ ability to retain sixth man and key “Death Lineup” member Andre Iguodala, who will reportedly start listening to other teams interested in his services as soon as free agency starts. One of the concerns is the amount of money that the Warriors would have to pay in luxury tax if they re-sign Iguodala, according to The Vertical’s Shams Charania.

Iguodala will field offers starting at midnight on July 1, per Charania. There are at least seven teams interested in the swingman, who came a few votes shy of winning Sixth Man of the Year. According to ESPN’s Chris Haynes, here is a list of teams who will reach out to Iguodala: the Minnesota Timberwolves, the San Antonio Spurs, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Philadelphia 76ers, the Orlando Magic, the Brooklyn Nets, and the Utah Jazz.

Iguodala would likely narrow that list down to playoff contenders willing to pay him a long-term deal, and the Clippers may be out after trading away Chris Paul. (Haynes’ report is two days old now.) But it’s enough to think that this is more than smoke and more than talk. Maybe Iguodala could really be on the move.

Why Iguodala would move on from Golden State

Until this report from Charania, all the smoke about Iguodala’s free agency situation had been from teams interested in him, not the other way around. It’s pretty easy to read that: Iguodala wants to get paid this summer, and his agent is pushing these stories to make sure that Golden State doesn’t try to shortchange him.

However, this is now two different reporters from two different outlets reporting both sides aren’t sure Iguodala will be back. This doesn’t mean that the Warriors won’t sign him, but it makes this seem like more than just smoke.

Iguodala now has two rings, and the Warriors are about to re-sign Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry. Those two will command more than $400 million combined over the next five seasons, potentially starting at about $65 million combined next season. That will quickly send the Warriors into luxury tax hell, with every dollar they spend being multiplied by two, then three, then four as a penalty for being so far over the tax for several seasons in a row.

That means that every dollar spent outside of the Big Four has to be spent judiciously. Ideally, Iguodala factors into that mix — he’s a perfect complement in the Death Lineup to those four stars, and he has been with them for four seasons now. But if he’s really looking for a huge payday, and if the two rings he has already won have satiated his desire for championships ... then maybe.

Why Iguodala will still be with the Warriors next year

Here’s the thing: As long as the Warriors pay Iguodala at a rate he thinks is fair, he’ll be back. There’s no reason to leave unless Golden State is undercutting him. The Warriors have his Bird Rights. If they want Iguodala back, he’ll be back.

The luxury tax will be brutal for Golden State, but they’re also the league favorite to win the next, say, five championships. They’re making plenty of money, and investing in one quality role player is worth the cost. Or at least we think so.

If the Warriors don’t pay Iguodala, it’s a gamble that they can win titles anyway off the strength of their Big Four. But it’s a risk, and if they lose in Iguodala’s absence, there will be a lot of finger pointing at a front office that claims to be “light years ahead.”

Chances that Iguodala actually leaves

Up until now, I’ve written off Iguodala reports as an attempt to gain leverage. I believe that the Warriors are seriously thinking about whether Iguodala is worth the luxury tax hit they will take. But I ultimately think there’s only one answer for that: yes.

Let’s say there’s a 7 of 10 chance that Iguodala returns to Golden State this summer.