Once NDP numbers hit 30%, the NDP will be looking to trigger an election. When they do, the Liberals will fall and we'll go back to the polls. With the NDP polling at 30%, the momentum would be there to convince voters that the party can actually form government. However, in order to get to 30%, Singh needs to stay relevant and entertaining. He needs to play it safe and galvanize his base by holding Trudeau accountable. After losing more seats in this election, Singh will be looking to prove that he can live up to Jack Layton in the next one.





Pipelines

The Bloc is allegedly putting pressure on the Liberal minority to prevent pipelines from being built in Quebec, according to the Globe & Mail. Jagmeet Singh has made it clear his party wants nothing to do with pipelines. Do the math and it looks like Justin Trudeau has only two choices: capitulate and alienate Western provinces even more, or defy the NDP and Bloc by trying to get pipelines built. Either scenario puts the Trudeau government in harm's way.

If Trudeau appeases the Bloc or the NDP to maintain his minority, Alberta, BC, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan will offer poor prospects for the Liberal Party in the next election—whenever that might be. If Trudeau defies the NDP and Bloc on pipelines, he risks being toppled and going back on the campaign trail.

Pipelines could be the deal breaker for the Liberal government in the coming months, meaning that Conservatives and provincial leaders need to make it an issue. Recent polls show a majority of Canadians (53%) wanting to have the Trans Mountain pipeline built, with the only majority against it being in the province of Quebec.

Good luck working that out, Justin.





The Poisonous Bloc

The Bloc is a separatist party. Andrew Scheer made the right move during the campaign by ruling out a possible coalition with the Bloc. If Justin Trudeau were dumb enough—or desperate enough—to form an alliance with the Bloc in the event of Jagmeet Singh refusing to play ball, the Liberals would further tarnish their own image everywhere outside of Quebec. The same is true for any party.

No smart political strategist would let their leader go anywhere near the Bloc. Any party that does risks losing badly when the writ drops again. If Trudeau tries to make a secret deal and it leaks, it would do more damage than letting his minority topple by refusing the Bloc any leverage.





Andrew Scheer Stays On

Seeing the final election numbers, there is absolutely no reason for Andrew Scheer to resign. A shoddy poll conducted by Ipsos the night after the election showed a majority of Canadians in favour of Scheer's resignation. The poll has no merit, given that a majority of Canadians voted against Scheer to begin with and the Conservative voters that played a roll in the poll were justifiably angry and shocked to see Trudeau win 157 seats.

As the dust continues to settle, we are seeing a record 6.1M votes for the Conservative Party—mostly from the West. Andrew Scheer was able to reach beyond the Conservative Party base and pull in 500,000 more votes than Stephen Harper in 2015. That's not a loss, that's growth. Scheer may have been weak in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, but he still pulled in 6 more seats from Atlantic provinces than Harper did in 2015.

A leadership race would throw the Conservative Party into turmoil. The party saw a damaging 50/50 split in the last leadership contest, so there is no point risking it again during a Liberal minority. Andrew Scheer will (and must) stay on as the party's leader—especially now that Maxime Bernier has been permanently knocked out of the running.

The next election needs a strong, confident Conservative Party with a stable, permanent leader. If Scheer fails again and Trudeau manages to win a majority, then we can (and should) talk about Andrew Scheer's resignation.





The Next Election

We don't know when the next election will be, but we can count on Jagmeet Singh to prop up the corrupt Liberal minority for at least six months. Every party leader would agree that it's too soon to go back to the polls any earlier than that. Voters don't want to go through another filthy campaign just yet. They need time to re-adjust.

Besides, we need to allow Canadians to see what kind of damage a Liberal minority propped up by the NDP can do. After the debacles in India, at home (SNC-Lavalin) and from his own past, we shouldn't assume Justin Trudeau will be able to have the composure or deal-making abilities required to maintain a minority government for very long.

Strap yourselves in and stay engaged. Our time is coming.