One other point worth making on the Kentucky Senate race. Kentucky remains very red, but the recent polling on a hypothetical match-up between Paul and Conway surprisingly shows Conway very much in this race. The current TPM Poll Average gives Paul a 44.7 to 38.4 lead, but the two most recent polls, taken this month, give Paul only a 1-point lead and 3-point lead:

Hypothetical match-ups are tricky to poll. Or I should say that there’s a higher degree of volatility when you’re asking voters to hypothesize. So it’ll be very interesting to see the new polling done after last night’s results now that it’s no longer a hypothetical match-up.