One thing that anyone following the Trump/Giuliani/Mueller interview dance has to realize at this point is that there is really no way that the President is going to voluntarily sit down with the Special Counsel. While Giuliani has flip-flopped on the question, when asked this week if the President would agree to testify under oath he candidly responded: “Come on, you think we are fools?”

The bottom line is that despite the public gamesmanship and talk of possible terms, under oath or not, the President almost certainly can’t and won’t take the risk.

So the question that will have to be resolved in the days to come is whether Mueller will subpoena– try to force– the President to testify in front of a grand jury. Independent Counsel Ken Starr prepared to subpoena President Clinton before he ultimately agreed to answer questions, under oath.

I have been publicly predicting that Mueller would not take the subpoena plunge. Not because the President would succeed in any legal challenge. The Supreme Court in the Nixon case ruled: “Neither the doctrine of separation of powers, nor the need for confidentiality of high-level communications, without more, can sustain an absolute, unqualified presidential privilege of immunity from judicial process under all circumstances.” Yes, there are differences here from both the Paula Jones/Clinton case (civil v. criminal) and the Nixon ruling (subpoena of tapes v. testimony) but in the end, Mueller’s legal odds would be more than good.

The primary reason Mueller wouldn’t move forward with a subpoena is because the President has likely become what is called a target of the investigation. There are three designations used by federal prosecutors: witness, subject and target. If he was just a witness, there would no obstacles to issuing a subpoena. The president’s lawyers have claimed that he has been deemed a “subject,” which is defined in the US Attorney manual as “a person whose conduct is within the scope of the grand jury’s investigation.” Think of it as legal purgatory. A target, on the other hand, is “a person as to whom the prosecutor or the grand jury has substantial evidence linking him or her to the commission of a crime and who, in the judgment of the prosecutor, is a putative defendant.”

Even though few expect Mueller to seek to indict a sitting president, that doesn’t mean that they aren’t investigating him the same way they would anyone else. And typically a prosecutor would not subpoena a target because, in essence the defendant would be called in front of a grand jury just to invoke his/her fifth amendment right against self-incrimination. The goal of a subpoena is not to just create a constitutional show, but to get testimony and evidence which you won’t get from a target.

But what has me questioning my previous assessment, is that Giuliani now seems to be working off a timeline. While on the one hand publicly admitting that delaying the process works to the president’s advantage, he rushed to submit his response to Mueller yesterday. So has Mueller threatened to subpoena the president? Almost certainly. Will he actually do it? I am still betting no but with far less confidence than I initially had.

I asked my followers on twitter who are lawyers and legal geeks to weigh in on the question and they were similarly divided. Here is a sampling of the responses on both sides.

Yes, Trump will get subpoenaed

Yes! Case against son and Jared. Always saying this is the player move and he can only assert 5th to stop it!!! — Bob Bianchi TV Host; Head NJ Co. Prosecutor/DA frm (@RBianchiEsq) August 9, 2018

My vote is yes, largely in response to the monumental incompetence of @RudyGiuliani and @JaySekulow, who, along with Comrade Bonespursky®️, have Ready-Fire-Aimed themselves into a corner. — Steve Sidman (@sidmanlaw) August 9, 2018

Absolutely. His mandate is to investigate Russian interference w/2016 presidential election. How could he do a through and sifting investigation if he doesn’t interview all of the central players at least once? — eugene felton (@efjr68) August 9, 2018

Yes. Mueller will not be able to overlook the multitude of crimes he committed but it will be the illegitimacy of his presidency that will give Mueller the steam to indict him. — Lisa (@LisaMRKS) August 9, 2018

With each new TV appearance and other public comment, Giuliani sure seems to be making a subpoena from Mueller more and more likely. — Yes, that Jim Becker (@jaimelasvegas) August 9, 2018

He will do all he can to get our president no matter what it takes. It is a damn shame because the Justice system is destroyed and corruption has become the new normal. Trump’s mistake… he should have fired Comey Jan 21, 2017 for his bumbling idiocy regarding Clinton! — M&L. C (@MLinout) August 9, 2018

No, Trump will not get subpoenaed

No. He doesn't need #ReverseMidasTrump's testimony and the prolonged struggle that would likely attend enforcing the subpoena isn't worth the additional public sturm und drang created by 45 & his second rate team. — Robert Pearsall, JD (@crackthemessage) August 9, 2018

I would say no. Trumps mouth and thumbs have done SO much self-inflicted damage he doesnt need it (4 Obstrxn of Just charge). Doubt he will be convicted in senate for impchment so looks like unindicted co-conspirator is the way to go. Not sure what happens after that, — Shumanji (@Shumanji2) August 9, 2018

I remain in the "no subpoena" camp. Gives DT team something else to fight about for way too long, and as said in previous comments its not necessary. — James Owen (@OwenAttorney) August 9, 2018

Geek, not lawyer, but I think a subpoena and the resistance to it will take longer than the rest of the term. Mueller won’t ask him anything he doesn’t already have the answer to anyhow. — Zoë's BFF (@barrygenem) August 9, 2018

I'm not so sure he will. Trump is incriminating himself as it is. I think if he does it will be at the end of it. I just hope we have justice. A sitting president should never get to be above the law and kept from being indicted just because of the office. — Nicole Mallory (@BiteMeCat) August 9, 2018

Doesn’t need his testimony. DT is a target. Mueller won’t force him to testify. — Dwight Chumbley (@Chumco) August 9, 2018

[Image via Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images]

Have a tip we should know? [email protected]