Heidi M Przybyla

USA TODAY

The battle for a House seat in Georgia’s sixth district — with a Tuesday primary election — is becoming a quasi-referendum on President Trump that will probably intensify over the next couple of months.

Democrats are rallying behind a 30-year-old political neophyte, Jon Ossoff, who is buoyed by $8.3 million in donations from small Democratic donors from around the country eager to make a statement about their feelings about the new president.

If Ossoff captures 50% of the vote in Tuesday’s so-called “jungle primary,” which features 18 candidates including four major GOP contenders, he’ll avoid a June runoff against a single Republican competitor. Polling averages show him falling at least a few points short of that goal, and the most likely outcome is that the battle drags on.

“If Ossoff does hit 50 percent, it would be a further indication that House Republicans begin the cycle in deep trouble in upscale districts,” David Wasserman, House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said in a weekend analysis.

“People will say ‘this is sending a signal about the new administration,’” said Eric Tanenblatt, a 30-year veteran of Georgia politics who chaired 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s campaign in the state. However, if he doesn’t win on Tuesday and loses in June, “after all the hype, it will be difficult for Democrats to argue they are on their way to taking back the House,” said Wasserman.

The most likely outcome is the race narrows to a two-person battle on June 20, making it more challenging for Democrats to win as Republicans rally behind a single candidate. The national spotlight is also beginning to activate Republicans, said Tanenblatt. “This is a lot of national attention being given to a local race, but the district itself is still a conservative Republican district,” he said.

That Democrats are even in striking distance paints a portrait of a post-election landscape in which Democrats are energized to oppose Trump. Republicans have held the seat for 37 years, with previous occupants including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Changing demographics and Trump’s unpopularity led to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton losing the district by just one point in November. That compares to the double-digit margin the district gave Romney four years earlier. And while Ossoff is drawing significant attention from national Democrats, he's centered his campaign message on economics versus wholesale Trump opposition, including highlighting plans for high-tech sector jobs to Atlanta and rooting out Washington waste, fraud and abuse.

Ossoff has raised an eye-popping amount of money, outstripping contributions to all 11 of his Republican rivals combined. Democrats are also motivated in sending a message about this race because the seat’s previous occupant is Trump’s Health and Human Services Secretary, Tom Price, who is guiding the rewrite of a replacement plan for Obamacare. And they point to recent polling saying Ossoff is capable of winning a two-person race. A new poll for Atlanta’s Fox 5 has him two points ahead of Karen Handel, the former Georgia secretary of state.

Illustrating the stakes, Trump injected himself into the race Monday morning on Twitter:

"With eleven Republican candidates running in Georgia (on Tuesday) for Congress, a runoff will be a win," Trump said on Twitter. "Vote "R" for lower taxes & safety!"

Yet Handel has been under attack from the conservative anti-tax group Club for Growth among other outside Republican spending groups that would likely cease fire if she is the candidate. Also, “Ossoff has become a darling of progressive donors to such an extent that it could motivate more Republicans,” said Wasserman.

The end result is likely continued major national attention on this Georgia House seat.

“No one should conclude it’s a done deal and the Republican will win” if Ossoff falls short of 50% on Tuesday, said Tanenblatt, while clarifying that is the most likely outcome.

“There will be more national money poured into the race. We’re going to have another two months of this,” he said.

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