Leaked report by key government advisory body calls for 40% cuts in carbon emissions by 2030 and 90% by 2050

The government’s key climate change advisory body has called for Australia to triple its target for reducing carbon emissions by 2020, with further, deeper cuts in the following decades.

A leaked Climate Change Authority draft report to the government advises that Australia should aim to slash emissions by 15% on 2000 levels by 2020.

This target should escalate to a 40% reduction by 2030 and 90% by 2050, according to the independent body. The report, which will recommend a reduction target and a upper limit on emissions under the upcoming “cap and trade” regime, is set to be handed to the government in October.

Now, Australia has an “unconditional” target of a 5% reduction in emissions by 2020. This goal has bipartisan support. This target is flexible, however, with the government committing to a reduction of up to 25%, depending on the “extent of international action” on climate change.

Environmental groups have been pushing for a higher emissions reduction target, claiming that an increase would have a negligible cost to the economy.

Business lobbyists have urged caution over escalating emissions reduction targets, although firms are facing a lower cost of abatement following the government’s decision to bring forward the floating carbon price.

Professor John Quiggin, a member of the Climate Change Authority panel headed by former Reserve Bank chief Bernie Fraser, denied that the authority had prepared the report or made any recommendations to the government.

"We are still undertaking discussions of principles and modelling outcomes. It will be some time before targets are determined," he said.

“A target of 15% would broadly be in line with what other countries are doing and so there’s something to be said for it,” he said. “But that’s not the only basis for setting a target and I think I’ll reveal my view on that in due course.

“With the current policies, we are likely to be a net importer of carbon permits from the European Union, in order to take up the slack. How we reduce our own emissions will depend on a range of factors, such as the Renewable Energy Target and what happens with electricity demand, which has fallen.”

Quiggin said Australia should place greater emphasis on reducing emissions from its transport sector.

“The area where we’ve not bitten the bullet is transport, it’s an obvious standout,” he said.

“We have vehicles exempted from the carbon price and a very fuel-inefficient fleet. There is plenty of room for policy around that, especially given the high turnover in the Australian haulage fleet. The US has mandatory fuel efficiency regulations but we have very little in that area.”

Tony Mohr, manager of the Australian Conservation Foundation’s climate change program, said that a 15% reduction wouldn’t go far enough.

“It’s heartening to see 5% drop out of the equation as we never viewed that as an adequate target,” he said. “Countries have pledged to keep the global temperature rise to 2C, but cuts of 5% bring us more to 4C, when you add the emissions up.”

“The EU is looking to a 30% cut and the US has a 17.5% target, so Australia is still below other countries. 15% still isn’t consistent with a 2C outcome – 25% is the bare minimum we need to look at for Australia to achieve an equitable share of emissions reduction.

“If we keep all the current laws in place, we should be able to meet 15% without too much of a stretch.”

A spokesperson for the Climate Change Authority said: “The authority is still undertaking detailed analysis for the caps and targets review and no decisions have been taken at this time.”

“The Authority intends to release a draft report later this year to consult with the public before finalising its recommendations.”

• This article was amended on 5 August 2013. The original failed to make clear the leaked report was a draft. It also said Prof Quiggin would not confirm the contents of the report. This was not correct. He denied that the report had been completed at all.