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Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell heads into Election Day with a narrow lead over Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds among likely voters, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Forty-six percent of likely voters say they support Hubbell, and 44 percent say they support Reynolds. Two percent say they support Libertarian Jake Porter, and just 2 percent are undecided. The rest refused to answer or say they would vote for someone else.

The poll, which questioned 801 likely Iowa voters from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, shows that voters are divided over the direction of the state. The outcome of Tuesday's election has broad implications for issues ranging from tax policy to the future of privatized Medicaid and access to mental health care and abortions.

Support for both leading candidates has ticked up slightly since the Register last polled in September, when Hubbell led Reynolds 43 percent to 41 percent. Porter's support declined from 7 percent in September.

"The data suggests these are two quality candidates and that they’re well-matched to their bases," said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer and Co., the firm that conducted the poll.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

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Both candidates have mostly locked up support among their respective bases, with about 90 percent of Republicans and Democrats saying they support their party's nominee. But among independents, Hubbell leads by 6 percentage points over Reynolds, 45 percent to 39 percent.

Hubbell also holds a 13 percentage-point lead among women, 52 percent to 39 percent.

Reynolds, the first female governor of Iowa, leads with men 50 percent to 40 percent.

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Reynolds shows 'underlying support'

A two-point lead is small under any circumstances, Selzer said, but adding to the closeness of the race "is an underlying support for Reynolds, even though she is trailing at this point."

Reynolds leads across six of seven leadership traits for which the poll tested.

A plurality of likely voters say they believe Reynolds would be a stronger leader, better manage the state budget, be more honest, better reflect Iowa values, have a better understanding of the issues and be a better role model. Some of the margins are small, ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points.

Hubbell leads in only one category, by 4 points: better at working across party lines.

"If she is behind by 2 points, for her to have a lead on any of these individual traits is an accomplishment," Selzer said. "I think you have to hand it to her that she’s got some likability and she’s got some respect."

More than 90 percent of Hubbell and Reynolds voters say their minds are made up and will not change before Election Day.

Maddyson Herselius, a 21-year-old Democrat in Pleasant Hill, said she plans to vote for Hubbell in part because of his support for women’s reproductive rights.

Hubbell, a former Planned Parenthood board member, has said on the campaign trail he wants to restore state funding to Planned Parenthood, and he opposes the bill Reynolds signed earlier this year restricting nearly all abortions in the state.

“I think that women should have the right to choose whatever they want to do with their own bodies,” Herselius said.

Reynolds in October announced her support for over-the-counter birth control, which Democrats characterized as a political effort to shore up her support among women.

Despite his support for Planned Parenthood and legal abortions, Hubbell leads among likely Catholic voters with 47 percent to Reynolds' 41 percent. Hubbell has served on the board of Mercy Medical Center, a Catholic hospital in Des Moines.

He also finds support among those who align with no religion, those with incomes less than $50,000, those under 35 or 65 and older and with city dwellers.

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Hubbell leads across three of the state's four congressional districts: He's up 2 percentage points in the 1st District; 8 points in the 2nd District and 7 points in the 3rd District.

Reynolds leads by 9 points in the 4th District, the most conservative congressional district in Iowa.

In addition to leading with men, Reynolds does best with those earning incomes of more than $70,000, with Protestants and evangelicals and with those who live in towns.

Michael Small, a 32-year-old veteran living in Fairfield, said he plans to support Reynolds and a full slate of Republicans on Tuesday.

“We have a lot more riding on this election,” said Small, a Republican. “You’ve got the Republicans who want to make America what it was under the Reagan era, and you have the Democrats pushing for open socialism.”

He previously owned a small business but had to close it in the 2000s because he “couldn’t keep up with regulations,” he said. But now, he has family members who own two game shops in Iowa — a success he attributes to changes in Iowa’s business regulations led by Reynolds and other Republicans.

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“I know under different circumstances, they wouldn’t have even been able to get the one started,” Small said.

Reynolds has seen improvement in her favorable ratings since September, with more people saying they view her favorably (54 percent now, up from 47 percent in September) and fewer people viewing her unfavorably (41 percent, down from 46 percent).

Hubbell has seen an increase in the number of people who view him favorably (53 percent now, up from 42 percent in September), but also an increase in those who view him unfavorably (38 percent, up from 27 percent in September).

For him, the shift comes as likely voters learn more about him. In September, 30 percent of likely voters said they did not know enough about him to rate their feelings one way or the other. That now is down to 9 percent. Five percent say they don’t know enough about Reynolds to offer an opinion.

Differing visions of state's direction

Reynolds and Hubbell have presented starkly different views of the state, and Iowans also are divided.

Reynolds promotes a rosy vision, touting in campaign stops that Iowa has been ranked the No. 1 state in the country by U.S. News and World Report, unemployment is among the lowest in the country and the state budget produced a $127 million surplus.

Fifty percent of likely voters agree with her that things in Iowa are headed in the right direction, including 87 percent of those who say they’re backing her for governor.

Don Brill is a 63-year-old Republican in Polk City who is among those saying things in the state are going well. His home-building business is booming, he said, and he credits Reynolds’ policies, including the tax cuts she signed into law earlier this year.

“She’s helped my career a lot, and I want to keep that going,” he said.

Forty-three percent, including 79 percent of Hubbell supporters, say the state is on the wrong track.

On the campaign trail, Hubbell contends Iowa has been hurt by inadequate funding for public schools, the privatization of Medicaid and tax cuts that favor the wealthy.

Deb Kellogg, a 57-year-old registered Democrat in Urbandale, agrees with Hubbell, particularly as it relates to Medicaid.

She said the issue is personal, because she and her husband have fostered children who relied on the program and needed to access mental health services. She said she supports Hubbell because he has committed to reversing Medicaid privatization.

“The things he’s for, and the debate we watched, made us very comfortable with having him as our governor,” Kellogg said.

Independents are nearly evenly split on the state's direction, with 46 percent saying things are going well and 47 percent who say the state is on the wrong track.

Though Reynolds is the incumbent on the ballot, she inherited the position from Gov. Terry Branstad, along with many of his policies, when he was appointed U.S. ambassador to China by President Donald Trump.

Among likely voters, 61 percent say they’d like to make a change from the path Branstad charted for the state, while 34 percent say they’d like to see Iowa stay the course. Five percent aren't sure.

The desire for change is almost universal among Hubbell supporters — 94 percent say they want change — but about one in four Reynolds voters (27 percent) also say they would like change. A majority, 67 percent, say they want to stay the course.

Barbara Rodriguez and Robin Opsahl contributed to this report.

ABOUT THE IOWA POLL

The Iowa Poll, conducted October 30-November 2, 2018, for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2018 general election for governor and other offices.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,087 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the subsample of 801 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.