The Netherlands just held their general election to a fair amount of fanfare. While the election of a relatively small country may seem like a rather insignificant event in terms of global importance (it is), it does give some insight into the political climate of the EU. Netherlands’s main elected body uses a proportional representation system based on national results and this leads to a very diverse set of representatives. The different political groups must then form a governing coalition which governs for the next four years or until its dissolution. The drama of this election was largely centered on the nationalist PVV party and its leader Geert Wilders. His views align in many ways with other nationalist movements, from Brexit to Le Penn and even to the Bannon wing of the Republican Party. Openly anti-Islamic, the party has provoked a great deal of condemnation from many European leaders, but endeared itself to those opposing globalization.

The results are in and the center right (in Dutch politics) VVD party and the current Prime Minister Mark Rutte held on to their status as the largest party despite losing eight seats. The PVV succeeded in gaining five seats to become the second largest party but it ended up well short of first place. This has been largely characterized as a failure of the far right and to a certain extent it is. Their aim was to become the largest party in the face of adversarial polls and in this they failed. On the other hand, they improved from 2012 and closed the gap between them and the VVD. The party is relatively new, first gaining seats in 2006, and it looks to have some staying power.

So what does this indicate about EU politics? It suggests an end to nationalist populist movements outperforming their expected results, which doesn’t bode well for Le Pen in France. However, it also suggests that the concerns driving these movements have broad and continuing appeal. This is not a historical irregularity and it aligns very closely to precedent. Immigration surges have a long history of backlashes from native populations and if the inherent problems are not carefully managed they often spawn a political response. The wrong way to view this is through a lens of xenophobia or racism. No doubt that there are such voices, but these are only empowered when concerns are written off. Some European politicians have been able to address these concerns while avoiding some of the more abrasive rhetoric. Notably, Angela Merkel’s path to reelection looks somewhat assured and why? One likely answer is her government reduced refugee immigration by a staggering 75% this past year.