Even a contrarian would not argue that Stephen Harper’s campaign is off to an inspiring start.

A mega-trade deal that would have given the Conservatives a win on the economic front just in time for the election call failed to materialize.

Looking at the polls, there is little evidence of the lift in party fortunes that last month’s round of child benefit cheques was meant to result in.

Harper’s main rivals each used the first leaders debate of the campaign productively enough to keep the contest too competitive for the incumbent’s comfort.

In Quebec, the positive impact of the return of Gilles Duceppe on Bloc Québécois fortunes has turned out to be short-lived, throwing a wrench in the Conservative game plan. The party needs the Bloc to soften up New Democrats in the ridings that Harper has targeted for gains in October.

Now the Senate scandal is again front-and-centre in the media, predictably sucking out the oxygen from the Conservative election tour.

Nigel Wright’s long-awaited appearance at Sen. Mike Duffy’s trial may not have implicated Harper further in the spending scandal but it certainly did not give the 2011 Conservative supporters who have since strayed to other parties a reason to run back to the fold.

The former PMO chief-of-staff was physically alone in the witness box all week but as the voluminous email correspondence that served as backdrop for his testimony illustrated, he had a lot of help in weaving an intricate web of lies designed to mitigate the potential damage of Duffy’s spending woes on the Conservative brand.

Wright maintains that Harper was not in on the cover-up but once he found out, the prime minister was apparently not troubled enough by the collective effort to mislead Canadians to clean house. Most of those involved are still on his payroll.

Some of the Conservative leader’s fans like to compare the prime minister to a brilliant chief executive officer. But how many top-notch CEOs actually report to shareholders that lieutenants who allegedly went behind their backs to create a double set of books are worthy of their ongoing trust?

There is plenty of evidence that ethical lapses need not be fatal to an incumbent’s re-election prospects, and just as much evidence to the contrary.

Brian Mulroney’s first mandate was marred by repeat ministerial resignations and he still secured a second majority government.

Last year in Ontario, the skeletons accumulated over a Liberal decade in power did not prevent the party from winning a majority mandate.

On the other hand, voters did not forgive John Turner for signing off on the lengthy patronage list of a departing Pierre Trudeau.

And Paul Martin — even as he was exonerated from blame in the sponsorship scandal by the Gomery Commission — could not get Canadians to give his party a fifth mandate.

The 2015 campaign has barely begun. Even if its length were no more than the regular 37 days, it would be too early to conclude that the election has become the opposition’s to lose.

Two weeks in the last campaign, most observers gave Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff top marks for his work on the hustings.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

In the early days of the 1993 campaign, Tory leader Kim Campbell — whose party was left with only two seats on election night — was well ahead of Jean Chrétien in voting intentions.

With the Oct. 19 vote more than two months away, there is time for the narrative to take a turn for the better for the Conservatives.

But a long campaign also makes motivating a party’s base both more essential and more challenging.

If anything, the past two weeks have been more about stoking the fire in the belly of the converted for the long battle ahead than about winning over soft voters.

By the sheer virtue of having federal power in their sight for the first time in their history the New Democrats have all the incentive that they need.

Justin Trudeau did well enough on the debate podium to restore the flagging hopes of many of his followers. His performance has at least suspended the flow of stories about declining Liberal fortunes.

By comparison the Conservatives have less of a spring in their step than at a similar time in any of the last four Harper-led election battles.

A decade ago, one of the most insidious consequences of the sponsorship scandal was to embarrass scores of Liberal sympathizers into silence.

Some switched parties. Others stayed home. Many of those who stuck with Martin decided that, in the face of the indefensible, discretion was the better part of valour.

At a time when Harper needs to sustain the enthusiasm of his base for an election marathon, the Duffy trial is making it hard for many loyal Conservatives to feel proud of their first majority government in two decades.

Read more about: