The governing Liberals have a stranglehold on Etobicoke-Lakeshore regardless of who is nominated to replace retiring MPP Laurel Broten, a new poll suggests.

With Premier Kathleen Wynne expected to call byelections in five vacant ridings as early as Wednesday, the Liberals are sitting pretty in a constituency they have held for almost a decade.

In Etobicoke-Lakeshore, the Forum Research survey found the Grits at 50 per cent compared to 25 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, 21 per cent for the New Democrats, and 2 per cent for the Greens.

“It looks really good for the Liberals there and it doesn’t seem to matter who they pick as their candidate,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Tuesday.

Indeed, Forum also tested five possible Liberals against the nominated Tory Steve Ryan and the Greens’ Angela Salewsky, as well as the previous NDP candidate Dionne Coley and the Grits won in every scenario.

Toronto District School Board trustee Pamela Gough would get 45 per cent of the vote to 28 per cent for Ryan and 17 per cent for Coley, and 3 per cent for Salewsky.

Catholic board trustee Ann Andrachuk would garner 44 per cent to 26 per cent for Ryan, 18 per cent for Coley, and 5 per cent for Salewsky.

Councillor Mark Grimes was at 44 per cent to 26 per cent for Ryan, 19 per cent for Coley, and 3 per cent for Salewsky.

Similarly, Councillor Peter Milczyn polled at 44 per cent, Ryan 28 per cent, Coley 18 per cent, and Salewsky at 3 per cent.

Finally, former TDSB chair Bruce Davis was at 43 per cent to 27 per cent for Ryan, 17 per cent for Coley, and 4 per cent for Salewsky.

Using automated voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed 442 people in Etobicoke-Lakeshore on Friday and results are considered accurate to within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Even though the Liberals are polling well in the riding, Bozinoff cautioned that a byelection there could bring about some surprises.

“Remember, this is ground zero for the gas plants so the issue could come up,” he said, referring to the Grits’ controversial $585-million cancellation of gas-fired power-plants in Mississauga and Oakville, which helped them hold five seats, including Etobicoke-Lakeshore, in the 2011 election.

“This byelection could be a mini-referendum on the gas-plants even though this riding directly benefited from it,” the pollster said.

Bozinoff noted the Conservatives have focused on the gas-plant debacle more than anything else over the past year and a half so should be well-positioned to exploit the issue in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Byelections must also be called for Ottawa South, London West, Windsor-Tecumseh, and Scarborough-Guildwood to fill the Liberal seats previously held by former premier Dalton McGuinty, former energy minister Chris Bentley, and former treasurer Dwight Duncan, and backbencher Margarett Best respectively.

Currently in the 107-member legislature, there are 48 Liberals, including Speaker Dave Levac, 36 Tories, and 18 New Democrats.