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When the tide turned, Chrétien had little time to react, but he did not sit on his hands. The prime minister threw everything he could at the referendum — drawing on his reputation and reversing long-standing positions — to move the vote his way. Had he lost the vote, Chrétien is unlikely to have survived in office. More important, it would have been chaos for Canada.

His plan was to move quickly. He would ask Quebecers another question

There is one key question that the Monday morning quarterbacks rarely ask. Even if the federal forces had anticipated that Bouchard would be elevated mid-campaign, what might they have done about it beforehand? Certainly, no one would have predicted such a monumental shift in voting intentions. By passing the negotiation baton to Bouchard, Parizeau effectively surrendered his leadership, an astonishing move for someone with such a monumental ego.

Had the separatist forces thought this would change the game in their favour, they would have done it much earlier. In fact, had the polls been close mid-campaign, it’s unlikely that the Bouchard card would ever have been played. Their change in tactics was unplanned, almost slapdash. In fact, the Yes forces were deeply divided on the meaning of a victory. Would it be the first inevitable step to outright separation? Or would it be a strong bargaining position from which to gain more powers for Québec? A Yes vote would have thrown Québec and Canada into bedlam. The Canadian dollar would have fallen, stock markets would have crashed, and investment into Québec would have dried up.