As said many times already, the momentous but difficult decision on J&K taken by the Government of India is behind us. We are now left to make it all happen and cement the success of the decision and there are many implications to it.

J&K is coming to terms with the change and we are yet to fully ascertain how things will pan out there. However, it is the international domain where the response was more easily predictable. Pakistan was taken by complete surprise. It was under considerable pressure after the Pulwama to Balakot sequence of events but was beginning to get fair reprieve once US President Donald Trump decided that a full withdrawal from Afghanistan would be his focus to trigger positives for his re-election campaign.

Pakistan got its 6 billion US$ bailout loan from the IMF, a re-emerging status as a US Frontline States, and sops for a commitment to get the Taliban on board. The Trump-Imran Khan meeting was the turning point which threatened to turn the geopolitics of South Asia on its head.

India’s decisions have clearly projected to Pakistan and the rest of the world that it was no longer willing to accept the perception that J&K was disputed territory. It had been benign in its post-conflict management in 1972 at Shimla, losing strategic gains at the negotiating table. In Feb 1994, a Joint Parliamentary Resolution re-stated India’s approach to J&K, clearly laying down aspirations to regain all the territory that once belonged to the Maharaja of Kashmir much of which lies under the occupation of China and Pakistan. Territorial compromise may still have been a possibility as signified by the four years behind the scene engagement on the Four Point Formula in 2004-7. However, now Pakistan’s hopes lie shattered and that creates more problems. A seething Pakistan under a none too experienced chief executive who is completely under the Pakistan Army has the potential to return to its well-known characteristic, irrationality. It downscaled diplomatic relations with India, threatened to review bilateral treaties, has broken all trade ties, and is planning to take the issue to the UN Security Council. It is also attempting to get the international community on its side and has promised full support to Kashmiri separatists. The Narendra Modi government in its second avatar must endeavour to reap the benefits of its ardent efforts in the field of foreign relations in its first innings.

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Two things gain significance here; to what extent will Pakistan’s efforts at internationalisation succeed and how far it can ratchet upwards the threats it is attempting to bring to bear in J&K’s hinterland. The first truth is that much of the world does not understand the nuances of why J&K is an issue at all. Most nations, including the US, have already expressed their acceptance of India’s right to enact laws which are applicable to its territory. China, as Pakistan’s all-weather friend, has come to its support. This is as expected also because of the heavy stakes involved for China in the strategic investment it has made in Pakistan. In addition, the sub-region of Ladakh, thus far a neglected part of the state of J&K, has now become an administrative entity in the form of a Union Territory (UT). Chinese perceives that its hopes of fostering greater separatist trends in Ladakh will be largely neutralised.

Interestingly analysts in Hong Kong fear that China too may take a cue from India by abrogating Hong Kong’s special status.

What can be expected is a worldwide campaign by Pakistan, especially in Islamic countries, to paint India red. The approaching UN General Assembly session commencing on September 17, 2019, will witness Pakistan’s information and diplomatic blitzkrieg. India must display a similar competence as the one displayed in the great depth of detail it has gone into while enacting the abrogation of the erstwhile constitutional provisions. Lobbying may be perceived as a dirty word but there is nothing as effective as well informed lobbying on India’s historical and legal standpoint on J&K. Pakistan’s arguments using personalities such as Noble laureate Malala Yusufzai aim to embarrass India in the human rights domain with incorrect allegations of rights violations in J&K. This is where one is reminded of the Indian efforts at the UN Human Rights Commission meeting at Geneva in Jun 1994 where Pakistan had launched a high decibel campaign to pillory India through a resolution. The composition of the Indian delegation by itself helped neutralise Pakistan’s acidic campaign. It was led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and comprised Salman Khurshid and Farook Abdullah. India’s international political and economic stature of today far surpasses that which existed in 1994 but the same may not be said of political consensus in the two separated times.

It is important for India to realise that a lockdown in Kashmir is fine for a few days while Kashmiris come to terms with reality. However, it has to be prepared to immediately launch a campaign even more sensitive and professionally mounted than the international one. We cannot have a repeat of images of 2008-10 and of the blindings of 2016 being beamed around the world. NSA Ajit Doval’s efforts to sensitise the security forces and reassure the public through some high profile imagery of his recent tour needs repetition by a couple of thousand prominent Indian personalities. The negatively macho perception of many Indians on Kashmir and Kashmiris due to the proxy war needs to be replaced by a more compassionate one. Sooner than later the diplomatic corps in New Delhi is going to pressure the government to allow visits to Kashmir. There should be no resistance to this and Kashmir should soon be transparently opened to visits, communication networks must be restored and a special effort commenced by the UT administration towards the management of the next winter. The latter is to embed as early as possible the perception that direct oversight from New Delhi is going to be to the governance and administrative advantage of Kashmiris.

Lastly, there are many who are already referring to recommended government efforts at outreach as mollycoddling which they perceive Kashmir does not need. They are right but when a part of your nation is mistakenly aggrieved the efforts to restore it back to normal is never called mollycoddling. It is called integration or mainstreaming.

The author commanded the 15 Corps in J&K