With just over a week until election day, a new poll suggests Canada could be headed for a Liberal minority government, with the Conservatives in opposition.

A Forum Research survey released Saturday found support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals has increased to 37 per cent, while Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are steady at 31 per cent. Less than a quarter of respondents, or 23 per cent, said they preferred the NDP.

Translated to seat counts, Forum said the popular support figures mean that the Liberals would score a strong minority of 145 seats, 25 fewer than needed for a majority in the 338-seat House of Commons. The Conservatives would capture 116 seats, with the NDP, who began the campaign in August as front-runners, placing a distant third with 69.

The Bloc Québécois and Green Party would round out the field, with seven seats and one seat, respectively.

The poll was conducted on Oct. 8 and 9, and with election day looming on Oct. 19, Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said there’s little time for the once-favoured New Democrats to turn their fortunes around.

“The NDP have effectively been sidelined now, and it is unlikely they will recover in the next 10 days,” he said.

The Liberals and NDP declined to comment on the poll. But in a statement, Harper’s finance minister Joe Oliver warned of catastrophic damage to the nation’s finances should the Liberals be elected.

“There is a real chance the Liberals may form government which will have real consequences for the economy, including massive tax hikes and job losses,” Oliver said.

“In an era of economic uncertainty, only a vote for the Conservative Party can protect your wallet and your job.”

Perhaps as troubling for the NDP as the party’s slipping popularity are signs that not only is support for New Democrats low, it also appears to be soft. According to the poll, nearly a third of respondents who said they were leaning toward the New Democrats also reported that they might still change their minds before the election, a higher segment than in either of the other main parties.

With polls consistently showing that a majority of Canadians oppose Harper’s re-election, the Liberals and NDP have been in a dogfight to position their party as the one with the best chance of beating the Conservatives. The poll indicates that for the moment the Liberals have a stronger claim to that position.

Results from the latest Forum poll are based on a random, interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,427 adult Canadians. The results are considered accurate plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.