CALGARY—Bowing out of the Canada Pension Plan wouldn’t save money for Albertans paying into an alternative provincial system, according to two economists — nor would it be all that different from what Ottawa currently offers.

The possibility of an Alberta pension plan is one of several proposals under consideration by the Fair Deal panel, a group convened by Alberta Premier Jason Kenney to find ways to secure more independence for the province within Canada. Kenney has suggested in the past that Albertans pay more into the CPP than they receive in return, pointing to Quebec — which never joined the CPP — as an example of a province with a functional pension system it controls.

Leaving CPP is within the realm of political possibility for Alberta. But experts said the province would be bound by several conditions within the Canada Pension Plan Act, including the creation of a provincial alternative that offers the same or better benefits. Altering the CPP Act itself would require the approval of two-thirds of Canada’s provinces.

“There are provisions. It is feasible. But it’s certainly not simple,” said Tammy Schirle, an economics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University.

Even the Quebec Pension Plan, established as an alternative to joining the CPP in 1965, functions very similarly to the CPP. The formulas used to calculate benefits for pensioners are nearly identical across both plans, Schirle said, although there are minor differences in how the QPP handles survivor and disability benefits.

Kevin Milligan, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia’s Vancouver School of Economics, added the QPP and CPP have only slightly different contribution rates and structures for disability-related payments.

“In large strokes, they’re very similar pensions,” he said.

Schirle said Alberta could set up a functioning pension fund management system on its own that is capable of matching the returns of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. However, she said, such a plan would require Albertans to pay in more because of the province’s traditional boom-bust economy.

During good years, she said, contributions to an Alberta pension plan wouldn’t be affected. But a major economic downturn would mean fewer Albertans are working and paying into the pension plan: therefore, the plan would need to have a higher contribution rate to offset bad years. Running a pension plan across the entire country helps to avoid these issues, Schirle said.

“We kind of balance each other out to mitigate that risk.”

There is also the question of demographics. Alberta currently has one of the youngest populations out of any Canadian province, Milligan said, thanks largely to its economic boom. But demographics change. Alberta wasn’t among the younger provinces in the 1960s when the CPP was first established. It may not be in 50 or 60 years time.

“One of the great benefits of a national pension plan is that we can share some of the demographic shocks — both positive and negative,” Milligan said.

Public support for an Alberta pension plan goes back to the 2001 “firewall letter” to then-premier Ralph Klein calling for increased provincial control of Alberta’s affairs in the face of what its half-dozen signatories, including future prime minister Stephen Harper, considered a hostile federal government. Their first proposal was a provincial plan “offering the same benefits at lower cost while giving Alberta control over the investment fund.”

“If Quebec can do it, why can’t Alberta?” asked the letter.

But the provincial government of the day found the cost of a provincial pension system to be too great. Klein created a panel in 2004 dubbed the MLA Committee on Strengthening Alberta’s Role in Confederation. It was tasked with examining the pension plan proposals, but found the majority of ideas would be too costly for Alberta’s taxpayers to bear.

Establishing a provincial pension plan would necessitate starting a provincial administration to handle it and collect contributions, Milligan said — and it would all need to be done from scratch.

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“Alberta would have to create all that anew in their province,” he said. “Albertans are very capable people; they can certainly do that. But it’s not free.”

With files from Nadine Yousif

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