PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans' enthusiasm about voting in the election for president next year has decreased, with 49% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican now saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, down from 58% in September. This narrows the gap between them and Democrats, 44% of whom are more enthusiastic than usual, essentially the same as in September.

These results, from a Nov. 28-Dec.1 Gallup survey, suggest a more even playing field regarding enthusiasm about voting than was the case just two months ago.

Gallup has found that voting enthusiasm generally relates to the eventual election outcome in midterm and presidential election years. In election years in which one party has a clear advantage on enthusiasm, that party tends to fare better in the midterm elections or win the presidential election.

Democrats enjoyed a significant enthusiasm advantage in 2008, for example, as they focused on returning a Democrat to the White House after eight years of Republican control. Similarly, Republicans held the edge on this measure in two surveys in early 2000 -- an election that followed eight years of Democratic control of the White House. In 2004, as Republican George W. Bush sought re-election, the advantage in enthusiasm among Democrats and Republicans fluctuated during the year, but in Gallup's final poll in mid-October of that year, enthusiasm was essentially equal.

The above data for prior years reflect enthusiasm during the election year itself, meaning the best comparisons on enthusiasm across the parties will be in 2012.

Implications

Republicans' enthusiasm about voting has dropped and, as a result, the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats has narrowed significantly. This marks a change from the decided enthusiasm advantage Republicans enjoyed just two months ago and in last year's midterm elections.

The decrease in Republicans' enthusiasm could reflect the intensive and bruising battle for the GOP nomination going on within the party, and the rapid rise and fall of various candidates in the esteem of rank-and-file Republicans nationwide. Once the Republican nominee is determined next year, Republicans' voting enthusiasm may steady, but whether this is at a high, medium, or low level remains to be seen.

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