This certainly isn’t the political scenario Trudeau likely envisioned when he first proposed his plan to reduce carbon emissions more than a year ago.

Most of Canada’s premiers were left-leaning at that time and supported the federal plan. With the exception of then-Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall (and his successor, Scott Moe), the small cadre of right-leaning premiers sensed public opinion was heavily against them and kept silent.

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The political tide began to turn, however, when Doug Ford and the right-leaning Progressive Conservatives won June’s election in Ontario.

“I’m not going to introduce a carbon tax,” Ford said after winning the PC leadership in March. “Folks, that is a bad tax. And if the prime minister wants to try to make us [booing from crowd at Mr. Trudeau’s mention] … well … I’ll tell the prime minister just the same way his father said it, ‘Just watch me.’ ”

Ford has already ended cap and trade in Ontario. He has taken his challenge to the federal Liberal government’s carbon plan to court. As predicted by a soothsayer-like columnist back in February, he’s exploring strategies with Moe (who asked the Saskatchewan Court of Appeal to rule on the federal carbon plan’s constitutionality). He joined United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney, an opponent of the federal carbon tax who will likely take power in next year’s Alberta election, at an Oct. 6 anti-carbon tax rally that was attended by more than 1,500 people in a packed hall.

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It doesn’t stop there.

New Brunswick PC leader Blaine Higgs, who won the Sept. 24 provincial election with a one-seat minority, is opposed to a carbon tax. While the provincial Liberal government in New Brunswick is trying to hang on to power and govern without a majority, this rarely works in Canada. Once Higgs has the opportunity to form a coalition, another anti-carbon-tax premier will be in power.

A newer opponent is Manitoba PC Premier Brian Pallister. He had previously supported a provincial flat carbon price of $25 per metric ton. However, Pallister did a surprising about-face this month after becoming disillusioned with the federal Liberal plan. “We have to fight now. We have to fight against this because higher and higher taxes are a threat,” he said.

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To add insult to Trudeau’s injury, Prince Edward Island Premier Wade MacLauchlan, a Liberal, is also against the federal carbon-tax plan — and the alternative proposal of cap and trade.

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Nevertheless, Trudeau went ahead last week and imposed his federal carbon pollution pricing system on Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick and Manitoba for 2019. The plan will reportedly return 90 percent of the money received from the carbon tax back to Canadians.

Moe said at a press conference, “We see it as a cynical vote-buying scheme using your money to buy your vote.” I couldn’t agree more.

A carbon tax is a regressive policy that adversely affects overall market outcomes through social costs rather than private costs. The Liberal government would be able to use this tax as a means of political and economic interference with these four provinces, thereby creating a negative impact on the free market.

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The argument that Trudeau’s carbon tax will be revenue-neutral is also a nonstarter.

While left-leaning economists and policy analysts enjoy touting this position, it’s nonsense: A tax that’s collected by the government is absorbed into the system and cannot be specifically returned in a different guise. The Fraser Institute proved this in a 2017 examination of British Columbia’s so-called revenue-neutral carbon tax. The provincial government clearly used smoke and mirrors to claim revenue neutrality, when in fact it “was no longer solely relying on new tax measures to offset the carbon tax revenue and instead began using pre-existing tax reductions in its revenue neutral calculation.”

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It goes without saying most “small-c” conservatives oppose a carbon tax. My fellow political travelers support the principle of reducing or eliminating the tax burden for all individuals and corporations. Adding a new tax does the exact opposite.

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And besides, if Canada only composes 1.6 percent of the world’s total carbon emissions, and the world’s biggest polluters, including China and Russia, aren’t going to make the smallest of dents in reducing their carbon footprint, why are we taxing our citizens even more?

That’s why Trudeau is making a massive political mistake in barreling ahead with his carbon tax before the 2019 federal election. Half or more of the provinces will soon be opposed to his plan — and, with this, a significant percentage of Canadian voters who could reject him at the ballot box. A recent Ipsos poll shows him barely leading the federal Conservatives by 36 percent to 35 percent, with the left-leaning NDP close behind at 20 percent.

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Trudeau should therefore give a serious rethink to his carbon-tax plan. If not, opposition parties will soon realize that beating him may not end up being too taxing.