Desert locusts and floods pose a risk of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in many areas by mid-2020

KEY MESSAGES

The above-average 2019 Deyr harvest, gains in livestock herd sizes, and sustained humanitarian food assistance have supported recovery from the preceding 2018/2019 drought and recent floods in rural areas. In February, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are prevalent in the presence of food assistance. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are observed in floodaffected Juba riverine areas, Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in central Somalia, and several internally displaced person (IDP) settlements. Based on food security data collected by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners in the post-Deyr 2019 food security assessment, an estimated 1.15 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

Despite localized and limited negative impacts on food security to date, new desert locust swarms pose a significant risk of food insecurity in northern Somalia and in south-central areas on the border with Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya. In addition, there is a high likelihood of river floods due to a forecast of above-average rainfall in the south during the April to June Gu season. Crop losses from desert locust and river floods are expected to result in a Gu cereal production deficit of 10-25 percent. Although favorable Gu rainfall will likely mitigate pasture loss from April to June, below-normal pasture availability is expected in locust-affected areas throughout the July to September Xagaa dry season, which is expected to lead to atypical livestock migration and a decline in livestock productivity.