Report

Twenty-five experts from Europe and the United States developed and discussed four different scenarios in order to map the possible foreign policy consequences of the eurocrisis.The four scenarios are: 1) Complete Fragmentation. The European Union moves toward disintegration. On the world stage, a divided Europe declines as a global actor. 2) Partial Fragmentation. Europe moves toward polycentricity. Several competing Europes emerge. The European Union becomes less reliable, predictable, and powerful as a foreign policy actor. 3) Partial Integration. Incremental progress toward better policy coordination within the eurozone re-establishes the European Union as a reliable partner for its neighbors. The transatlantic relationship fades, and NATO slowly withers away. 4) Full Integration. The Economic and Monetary Union is completed in the European Union. It takes several years, but eventually Europe becomes a more ambitious foreign policy actor with a global outlook and an increased military capacity.