Oh no... it's alive!

In spite of its astounding commercial success, x86 is almost certainly the world's most-maligned instruction set architecture (ISA). Predicting the death of x86 used to be a favorite pastime of everyone from bearded mainframe geeks to Mac-using AOLpersons (especially the latter). But like various bad 80s fashions, x86 may be ugly, but it just keeps coming back.

These days, I don't field nearly the volume of "When do you think x86 will finally roll over and die?" questions that I used to. Indeed, it has been over nine months since I last faced this particular question, in a radio interview for a program called GeekSpeak—this has to be some kind of record for me. Perhaps the public is finally catching on to the fact that x86 isn't going anywhere. If so, then that's progress, but here's the next reality that x86's (technically justified) detractors will have to deal with: not only is x86 not going anywhere, but in 2008, it's going everywhere.

Mark my words: in 2008, you'll see x86 processors win the first few major battles in a multiyear war to displace the likes of ARM, PowerPC, and MIPS in the pockets, purses, and briefcases of everyone from corporate executives to mall-hopping Paris Hilton wannabes. 2008 will be the year of the must-have x86-based ultramobile PC (UMPC) and mobile Internet device (MID), and from there it's a straight march into a future iteration of the iPhone.

No, I'm not just mindlessly regurgitating Intel marketing materials; this prediction is a matter of physics and economics. The 45nm process node that Intel has brought online and will soon begin ramping up marks an important milestone in the evolution of the world's most commercially successful (and most perpetually "old and busted") instruction set architecture. This is the point at which the bulky and bloated x86 ISA elbows its way into the embedded space like a 250-pound man squeezing into coach class, carrying with it the billions of lines of legacy code that give it such powerful economic and technological inertia. With a 45nm x86 processor, you can boot decades' worth of Windows software without a recompile on a device that fits comfortably in the palm of your hand and boasts a four- to six-hour battery life. This makes 45nm the point at which things will get really, really interesting on the mobile front.

Of course, it has been possible for some time now to squeeze an x86-based PC into an ultramobile form factor, but it hasn't been cheap or attractive. Intel may yet find some success with its 90nm, Pentium M-derived "McCaslin" UMPC platform, which just recently launched, but the party won't really get started until McCaslin's 45nm successor, Menlow, arrives in 2008. Menlow and its successor, Moorestown, will fundamentally change the complex cost/power/thermals/compatibility equation that dictates what kind of hardware goes into a commercially viable pocket-sized widget.

Menlow: UMPC and MID

The first major step on the road to a truly portable x86-based device is the "Menlow" platform that Intel touted at the most recent IDF. Menlow, which pairs Intel's 45nm mobile "Silverthorne" CPU with a special ultramobile chipset called "Poulsbo," will feature support for 802.11n and WiMAX, so that the whole Menlow package can deliver a full wireless Internet experience by running standard (x86) Linux and Windows browsers.

Speaking of operating systems, Intel is pretty aggressively showcasing Linux as the OS of choice for the UMPC. Nonetheless, Microsoft is working on something for the devices, which will support Direct3D 9ex and WMV9. The iPhone has shown that interface is key—no one should ever have to manipulate a tiny scrollbar with a stylus—and the Linux software that Intel showed me on a Menlow demo unit back at Research@Intel Day looked remarkably iPhone-like. So we'll see what Redmond comes up with on that front.



The UI for the Mobile Linux Internet Project. Source: Moblin.org

The Menlow slides that Intel was showing at IDF are variations on a slide deck that has been around at least since May of this year and IDF Beijing. One of the slides compares the king of hearts to a similarly sized Menlow motherboard, to show that Intel can now fit an x86 PC in an area not much bigger than a playing card. One of the major factors behind this high level of integration is Silverthorne.



The Silverthorne CPU. Source: Intel

Menlow's Silverthorne CPU as miniscule as you might expect of a 45nm single-core design. The whole package for this CPU, which will also power some of Intel's notebook offerings, is smaller than a penny. In spite of its small size, however, the processor will pack more horsepower than a similarly-clocked Core Solo (that is, if it's a Penryn variant, and I believe it is), which is more than enough performance to give a full Web experience using the same binaries of Firefox, Internet Explorer (and Safari?) that run on x86 desktops.

Menlow