David Beckham has taken a break from being a Disney Knight, modeling underwear, going out on loan to Europe, and all other important Beckham-matters to express a strong interest in owning an MLS franchise…in Miami.

MLS fans recall the two stages of Beckham-mania in the US. The first stage – lots of teeny boppers pay money to see Beckham play, gate receipts go up, but Beckham is often injured and the Galaxy suck. Then, the second era – Beckham gets his fitness, the Galaxy win trophies, but the aura and gate receipts return to earthly levels.

Beckham the player had a great impact on MLS. He succeeded as a promoter and player. But Beckham the owner? I have doubts, largely irrespective of Sir David. Rather, I’m suspicious about anything sports-related in Miami.

I begin with a simple question: is Miami really a sports town? Let’s look at the attendance stats for the current professional teams. The Miami Dolphins play in the NFL and American Football is easily the most popular sport in the US. Miami is currently 20th out of 32 teams in terms of attendance. Sun Life Stadium has a capacity of 75,000, but the Dolphins draw about 67,000. That’s still a pretty good occupancy rate. The Dolphins are also a middling team, so the interest is very good taking into account how poor the on-the-field product is.

The next most popular sport is baseball. Miami’s team, the Florida Marlins, succeed in hisses and fits. They’ve won a few World Series, but also fielded some pretty bad teams during rebuilding years. Right now, the team’s attendance is 29th out of 30. That is awful. Deadspin predicted an attendance drop this year and gleefully mocked the public/private partnership responsible for the stadium. On the plus side, the blue seats make for a serious deep blue sea “ocean vibe” when folks don’t show up. Still, if Miami fans turn on a team in a league with a luxury tax like MLB, what would be they do when a team in a league with a salary cap (like MLS) has to rebuild? Then again, every team that fields a bad product will fail on some level. MLS is no exception.

Soccer won’t catch up with American Football or baseball for several decades, but is close behind basketball and hockey. Thus, comparisons to those sports may be more warranted. Still, the Miami Heat’s attendance is amazing, but probably down more to winning championships and fielding the league’s best player than general sports interest. In fact, if you look back at the team pre-Lebron, their attendance was usually middle of the pack. In 2009, they drew about 18,000 and ranked 15th out of 30 teams. They were even ranked 15th in 2001 before drafting Dwayne Wade, so they’ve gotten consistent support even when the team was not so hot.

Of course, inter-sports comparisons are not perfect. While in each American city there exists a roaming pack of casual fans that only follow winning teams (the herd), each sport has dedicated fans (the pack). Miami has an admittedly large Hispanic population, but…but…a large chunk is Cuban. Going by totally unresearched stereotypes within the Latin community, Cubans…like baseball. Soccer, not so much. True, Miami is home to plenty of South American expats. But how will their cultured tastes adapt to MLS (and that pesky salary cap)?

Sports and demographics aside, there’s history. I speak of the Toros and the Fusion. The who? Exactly. The Miami Toros sprang into life in 1973, after the Washington Darts of the North American Soccer League decided to move down South. The Toros lumbered along for three years in the Orange Bowl before moving to Ft. Lauderdale and rechristening as The Strikers. The team never won the NASL, but did finish runner-up in 1974. Their dynamic forward tandem of Warren Archibald and Steve David lit the nets aflame, but it wasn’t enough: the team left town in 1983 for Minnesota.

Thus, soccer has tried and failed in Miami. Neither Miami proper nor Ft. Lauderdale could support a team. The NASL collapsed under its own weight, you say. True, but other teams lasted longer than a decade. The intra-city moves are an ominous sign. And the more recent history is even more depressing.

In 1996, MLS opened its doors and rode the wave of soccer interest after the 1994 World Cup in the US. In 1997, the Miami Fusion entered the league and ominously played in the old home of the Ft. Lauderdale Strikers (a converted high school stadium). The team barely lasted four years. They were shut down due to low season ticket sales and no corporate sponsorships. The Miami Fusion have the wikipedia game honor of winning the Supporters Shield at the best regular season team right before being contracted. Not relocated. Contracted.

Can Beckham reverse this trend? Could he build a winner to win over sometimes fickle Miami fans? Could a stadium misstep lead to Marlins-esque disaster? I am sure that Beckham would invest more than the old Fusion owners and land some corporate sponsorships on brand alone, but I’m not sold on decent season ticket sales. Twice, Miami has had a pro soccer team. Twice, it has failed. A Prince Charming has come along, but three times may not be the charm.

Elliott Turner blogs about soccer at Futfanatico.com