Is Obama's 'firewall' crumbling? Romney draws level with President in 'safe state' of Wisconsin

Obama won there by 14 points in 2008

Romney to campaign in Wisconsin on Tuesday

Obama believes Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin are his firewall



Mitt Romney is now tied with Barack Obama in Wisconsin, one of the 'firewall' states the president hoped would protect him against defeats in Florida and Virginia, according to a new poll.

Rasmussen found that Romney and Obama were tied on 49 per cent in the state, which Obama won in a 14-point landslide in 2008.

Buoyed by internal polling which shows similar numbers, Romney is to head to Wisconsin next week, as first reported by MailOnline last Tuesday. Romney will be campaigning in West Allis on Monday evening.

I WILL do that: Romney, pictured here on stage with Meatloaf and Randy Owen in Defiance, Ohio, is catching up with Obama in surprising areas Countdown: Romney's whirlwind tour of the country will see him go to Winsconsin next week

Crucial: Polls indicate Wisconsin could become the decisive state if Obama holds Ohio

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Romney advisers believe that Governor Scott Walker's recall victory this year gives them an organisational edge in the state. In addition, Representative Paul Ryan, Romney's vice-presidential running mate, is from Wisconsin and the Obama campaign has not spent there on the negative advertising that has been so effective in Ohio.

Scott Rasmussen, who conducted the poll of likely voters, said that Wisconsin could become the decisive state in 2012 if Romney takes Florida and Virginia - as current polling suggests - but Obama manages to hold out in Ohio, where he has a wafer-thin poll lead.

'If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes,' he wrote on his website.

'The simplest path without Ohio would be for Romney to win Wisconsin, Colorado and one other swing state. It's plausible, but an uphill struggle.'

Obama has long believed that Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin is his firewall. Even if Florida, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire topple, victory in those three states would secure him re-election. Now, however, that firewall is under threat.

A Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey released on Thursday gave Obama a six-point lead, up from two points three weeks ago, but the Romney campaign points out that PPP is a Democratic firm and the swing of four points towards Obama when almost all other trends are towards Romney is implausible.

Candidate time is the most precious resource for a campaign in the closing day and Romney's foray into Wisconsin - his first since August - is an indication his team believes he has a real chance there.

The Romney campaign also believes Obama is very vulnerable in Iowa - a favourite state for the president because his caucuses victory there in 2008 was the first step on his road to the White House - and Colorado but in a slightly better position in Nevada.

Romney is advertising in Wisconsin and also New Hampshire, which Obama won in 2008 by 10 points.

Asked last week whether Romney himself would be visiting Wisconsin in the closing days of the race, Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior Romney adviser, said: 'Yes. Paul Ryan was just in Pittsburgh. We'll be back in Wisconsin, sure. Wisconsin is definitely in play.'

Turbulence: President Barack Obama takes the stage at a campaign event at Cleveland Burke Lakefront Airport in Cleveland, Ohio, on Thursday night during his punishing campaign tour as he battles to shore up his support Holding on: Obama believed that Wisconsin was one of three states that would act as a firewall and secure him victory

Comfort: President Barack Obama pauses to greet people as he leaves a campaign office in Chicago, Illinois on Thursday

Fehrnstrom held out the possibility of Romney competing seriously not only in New Hampshire and Wisconsin but also in the big prizes of Pennsylvania and Michigan, which Obama won by 17 points four years ago.

Asked about Pennsylvania and Michigan, he said: 'There's places we're going up for the first time,' he said. 'We just bought Boston TV so we can beam into southern New Hampshire because the battle is tightening there.



'All I would say to that is stay tuned. You've seen the polls coming out of those states. It does show a narrowing of the gap and we're watching those very closely.'

Another aide predicted that Obama would be travelling to Pennsylvania to protect his turf there. No decision has been made within the Romney campaign about whether to spend money in Pennsylvania or send the candidate there.

Good times: The presidential candidate enjoys a laugh with Meatloaf during a rendition of God Bless America at the football stadium at Defiance High School

Fireworks: The whole face of the campaign changed after Romney's first debate with Obama that re-ignited the race

In addition, the candidates have been travelling to Colorado, where Obama defeated Senator John McCain by nine points in 2008, Nevada, where he won by 13, Iowa, where he won by 10, and North Carolina, where he eked out victory by less than one per cent.

LAURA BUSH TO CAMPAIGN IN ANOTHER OBAMA SAFE STATE Laura Bush, the former First Lady, is to campaign for Mitt Romney in Michigan this weekend. Her appearance on the campaign trail is part of a Romney push for female voters. Mrs Bush has indicated she is in favour of abortion rights and has a much more positive image than her husband the former president George W. Bush. It also marks a foray into what has been assumed to be a safe state for Obama. No Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan since 1988 and President George W. Bush lost Michigan it twice even though he competed for it vigorously, especially in 2004. Romney, however, was born in Michigan and his father was governor there. Some polls have shown a relatively close race but Obama has been consistently ahead and neither campaign has spent on television advertising in the state. Obama last visited Michigan in April while Romney was there in August.

Strikingly, all nine states currently being contested were won by Obama in 2008 and Romney is not having to defend any states McCain won. In addition, Indiana, which Obama won by one point, has been surrendered.



Obama beat McCain by seven points and 192 electoral college votes nationally in 2008 so Romney is clearly the one who needs to make up ground. But in a race where Obama was long viewed as holding an advantage in terms of the electoral map, the shift towards Romney is marked.



'Something structural changed in the race after that first debate and nothing has happened since to change the new structure of the race,' Fehrnstrom said last week.

There are dangers, however, in attempting to expand the map. Resources poured into Wisconsin, New Hampshire or Pennsylvania are resources taken away from Ohio and other swing states.



The bottom line for both the Romney and the Obama campaigns is that whoever wins Ohio will almost certainly win the election.



Jim Messina, Obama's campaign manager, made clear last week he felt the election would be exceedingly close. 'Look, Here's the deal. This is a fight for 270 electoral college votes. In all the battleground states we either lead or are tied. It's a very close election. I always told you guys it was going to be very close.'