When the news emerged Monday morning that Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had successful hip surgery, it marked the first step toward the expected start of his professional career.

And it also kicked off the beginning of a draft process that’s going to be among the most scrutinized and complicated in NFL history. Until all of the medical timeline information for recovery becomes clear and insurance nuances are made public, it’s difficult to gauge what’s the best decision for Tagovailoa to make next.

A source told Yahoo Sports that the minimum recovery time for Tagovailoa is six months, which means teams will not see Tagovailoa work out prior to the NFL draft on April 23. And while Alabama team orthopedic surgeon Dr. Lyle Cain has said multiple times that Tagovailoa is expected to make a “full recovery,” there’s still understandable skepticism at the NFL level. Until league executives can see him running and throwing, selecting Tagovailoa looms as a giant risk.

Tagovailoa’s cloudy professional future has already vaulted him into the status of the 2020 draft’s most divisive and discussed player. Think about the din of the discussions around Tim Tebow, Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson, throw in the uncertainty of the sport’s highest-profile injury in recent seasons, and months of narratives will unfold. Also, consider that the injury stands to cost Tagovailoa as much as $25 million, which means the specter of his hip injury could well trickle down to the college game. Coaches, administrators and agents are asking: Is this the caliber of injury and amount of lost money that could prompt elite players to find alternative paths to the NFL?

Hailed as the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in 2020 prior to the season, Tagovailoa is now the biggest enigma in football. He has had three surgeries in the past two seasons, and when teams are picking in April they won’t have empirical evidence of his post-surgery reality.

“It’s very difficult, you don’t know what you’re drafting,” said a veteran NFL executive. “I see him maybe going toward the end of the first round.”

View photos Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (13) is carted off the field after getting injured in the first half against Mississippi State on Saturday. (AP) More

Here’s the essential issue for Tagovailoa: Can a team risk a top-five pick on a player with lingering medical issues on a body part with scary injury precedents? So much is going to hinge on what Tagovailoa’s medical reports say, but even the sunniest recovery forecasts are going to be accompanied by a leap of faith. The deadline to initially declare for the NFL draft is Jan. 20, which is essentially two months away.

The conventional option would be to get a feel for what his reality is this season and enter the draft as he was expected. It’s generally expected he’d go in the first round, as there’s a pervasive desperation around the NFL for competent quarterback play.

“It’s complex and unfortunate,” said an NFL executive. “But the later you are picked [in the first round], you may be better off. Look at Lamar Jackson. But it’s still a tough call.”

That option could come with a significant financial loss, depending on how far he slips. The more creative option that could emerge is Tagovailoa waiting to enter the 2021 NFL draft in order to prove he’s healthy. This could save the nearly $20 million gap that exists between a high first-round pick and a late first-round pick.

Here’s the rough math using cautious hypotheticals: Opinions varied in the scouting world on Tagovailoa, but it was unlikely that a quarterback of his talent and production would have slipped past the No. 5 spot in the draft. If the injury pushes him to No. 25, that’s a difference of more than $17 million in salary, including more than $12 million in signing bonuses.

According to salary data from the 2019 draft, the total value for the contract of the No. 5 player in the draft is $29.2 million, and the signing bonus is $19.2 million. The No. 25 pick checked in at $11.8 million in total value and $6.6 million in bonuses. (The difference between pick No. 1 and No. 32 is $25 million.)

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