5 reasons the Colts are a playoff sleeper

Stephen Holder | IndyStar

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INDIANAPOLIS – They have been the epitome of average the past two seasons. They have been neither very good nor embarrassingly bad.

When you attempt to characterize the Indianapolis Colts in 2015 and 2016, the word “blah” comes to mind.

After 8-8 records in consecutive seasons, it’s difficult to reach any other conclusion. As a result, a sense of ambivalence seems to have taken hold around this team.

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Expectations are measured. Offseason hype has been muted. And that’s if the Colts are even a part of the national conversation, which they generally are not these days.

But here’s a different point of view: There are actually quite a few reasons to believe the Colts will be one of the NFL’s sleeper teams in 2017. Not a Super Bowl contender per se, but certainly a team that should win its division, then take its best shot at the postseason.

Who says this team has to be blah once more?

“I think we can be a good football team,” coach Chuck Pagano said after wrapping up the team’s offseason work on Thursday. “I think there’s something special going on here.”

He could well be right. Here are five reasons the Colts should make 2017 interesting.

Defensive improvement

Here’s something people tend to forget when discussing the Colts as some run-of-the-mill team: They have an explosive, high-scoring offense and have for most of the past five seasons.

Indianapolis was the eighth-highest scoring team in the NFL last season with nearly 26 points per game. The passing game produced 63 explosive plays (defined as 20 yards or longer), fifth most in the NFL. The New Orleans Saints ranked first with 71.

What’s the point?

What the Colts have lacked is a competent defense. The Colts would settle for having one that simply won’t be an obstacle for the offense. Even General Manager Chris Ballard admits the bar isn’t set very high.

“The good thing is if we can get to where we are just in the middle of the pack defensively right now, we’ve got a chance to take another step,” Ballard said last month. “The last few years, they’ve been at the bottom of the league.”

The defense purged lots of experience from 2016. But it got necessarily younger while also adding a number of young veterans who offer immediate impact. Johnathan Hankins and Jabaal Sheard are examples of experienced players who also have the benefit of youth. The Colts have added more speed on defense, too.

There could be several rookies in the starting lineup, and that comes with challenges. But the Colts are simplifying some of the more challenging aspects of their defense to accommodate them.

Do not underestimate how far these defensive changes could go toward changing the fortunes of the entire team.

AFC South still needs work

The fastest route to the playoffs continues to be winning your division, and the Colts are right in the mix when it comes to the AFC South.

No team in the division has been transformed this offseason nearly as much as Indianapolis, and the Colts did so while maintaining their decisive edge at the game’s most important position: quarterback.

Granted, everything in this story is written under the premise that Andrew Luck returns to form after shoulder surgery — he’s been sidelined the entire offseason‚ but nothing so far suggests that won’t happen.

The Colts have a ready-made offense with Luck under center. The Houston Texans, after trading Brock Osweiler in the spring, are more or less starting over at quarterback and trying to figure things out with Tom Savage and rookie Deshaun Watson. Meanwhile, the Blake Bortles experiment continues in Jacksonville. In Tennessee, Marcus Mariota is off to a great start but is still an inferior quarterback when compared with Luck. He also lacks the number of proven weapons on offense that the Colts can claim.

The Texans managed to win division titles the past two seasons, but Luck missed nine games in 2015 and in 2016 played 15 games with the worst defense of the Pagano era.

Look, the Colts have questions of their own. Lots of them. But to suggest that the uncertainties about the Colts outweigh those of the other teams in the division is just not accurate.

A more competitive roster

Competition, competition, competition. Yada, yada, yada.

It’s all anyone associated with the Colts has talked about this offseason, and we’ve all probably grown tired of listening to it. But it’s worth repeating here because it’s a critical point.

The Colts do, in fact, have a more competitive roster in 2017. And it’s about time.

For the purposes of this story, here’s why that matters: Competition brings out the best in players, and Colts players finally are going to have to earn their keep this season. There will be more position battles this fall than in any training camp in recent memory, and that can only lead to better performances. That’s not to say players weren’t motivated in the past. Just not as much as they’ll need to be in this training camp.

The remaking of the roster was done with the goal of becoming a more talented team. But a secondary objective for Ballard was addressing a locker-room culture that had become, perhaps, a little too relaxed.

Offense is nearing next level

We’ve already seen Luck prove he can carry his team on a deep playoff run (see 2014). The question has been whether his offensive counterparts were also up to the task.

That answer is becoming clearer, even if the Colts’ records haven’t indicated as much.

This Colts’ offense is poised to go to another level if things fall into place. Don’t let the national narrative deceive you: The Colts’ offensive line, on paper, is the best they’ve had in Luck’s six seasons. They have experience (Anthony Castonzo and Jack Mewhort) and raw, young talent (Ryan Kelly, Joe Haeg, Le’Raven Clark, etc.).

For the first time in a long time, there’s real upside on the offensive line. We saw that last season, when the young linemen helped the Colts make a significant improvement in pass protection late in the season. Additionally, the run blocking was, at times, superb, enabling running back Frank Gore to become the Colts’ first 1,000-yard rusher in 10 seasons. Most of the line’s struggles were mental ones, coming against twists and stunts from defensive linemen. Those elements will improve with experience, so the future is bright.

Meanwhile, Luck’s top wideouts — T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief — have had spectacular offseasons. Both seem primed for big seasons. Then, there’s Luck himself, who quietly had one of his best seasons in 2016 despite his now-repaired aching right shoulder.

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Finally, a fast start?

Don’t fall into the trap of paying any heed to strength of schedule based on last season’s results. The math tells us the Colts have the NFL’s easiest schedule using the 2016 won-loss records of their opponents.

In a league where parity is king, one year’s results often have no bearing on the next. That said, the Colts have a chance to – finally – get off to a better start.

This is a team that has started 0-2 in each of the past three seasons, putting tremendous pressure on itself in its remaining games. But the Colts have a season opener on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, followed by home games against the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns in Weeks 2 and 3. A game at intimidating CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks looms in Week 4, but a home contest against the San Francisco 49ers awaits in Week 5.

This opening schedule pits the Colts against some of the worst teams in football, in the midst of major rebuilding jobs, in the first several weeks of the season. If the Colts can take advantage, it could change the complexion of their season.

Whatever happens, the Colts will take pretty much anything other than 0-2. It’s about time they break that nasty habit.

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