The major flaw that could sink the former Minnesota governor’s presidential campaign

With Mitch Daniels officially out of the presidential race, it seems like the entire GOP is emulating Ethelred the Unready. Well, not quite everyone. In a contrarian move at odds with the Reluctant Republican ethos of the party, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will actually make it official by declaring his candidacy today in Des Moines.

Along with the obligatory yawn-inducing “can you win Iowa?” question, Pawlenty almost certainly will be asked again about his ability to compete financially with Mitt Romney, the Daddy Warbucks of the truncated Republican field. Pawlenty recently answered that query with a nod to GM’s venerable product line: “Our goal is not to keep up with Mitt. Our goal is to raise enough money to have at least a Buick, if not a Cadillac-level, campaign.”

But even a Buick campaign (with the usual high-priced accessories like strategists, media consultants, pollsters and press handlers) could easily cost a minimum of $40-$50 million. By way of comparison, Rudy Giuliani—a Buick Regal kind of guy—raised $55 million for his 2008 campaign, which sputtered to a halt after a weak finish in the Florida primary. Romney, for his part, is that rare candidate who combines the fund-raising prowess of the Bush family with Nelson Rockefeller’s generosity to his own political ambitions.

And here lies Pawlenty’s problem: To run a competitive campaign, T-Paw will be forced to spend long hours each week ingratiating himself with wealthy donors in places like Houston and Atlanta. But in this cycle’s foreshortened campaign season, Pawlenty cannot afford to shirk even a minute of the face-to-face politics that have proven essential to winning the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. In other words, in a race where time will likely be of the essence, Pawlenty has dangerously little of it to go around.

Dollars, of course, do not always dictate destiny in presidential politics. Republicans of a certain age can recall the big-bankroll flameouts of Phil Gramm ($21 million and a fifth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses in 1996) and John Connally ($12 million squandered to win a single delegate in 1980). Even Romney, who spent $107 million (including $45 million of his own money) on his 2008 presidential race, did not last as long as Mike Huckabee and his church-mouse, faith-will-provide $16-million campaign.