Researchers from McGill University may have discovered the key to solving the problem of stagnating ridership that’s plaguing transit agencies across the continent. It’s the humble public bus.

After years of successive growth, cities across North America are struggling to address plateauing or even declining transit use.

The TTC is no exception, and last year ridership decreased significantly for the first time since 2003, with the number of trips falling to 533.2 million in 2017, from 538 million in 2016.

“If (cities) are to address the issues of congestion and sustainable mobility, it is an important issue that they need to look into,” said Geneviève Boisjoly, a PhD candidate and lead author of the new study, “Invest in the Ride.”

In its own analysis, the TTC has blamed the poor numbers on slow employment growth and the increasing prevalence of part-time work, which has undermined the agency’s most reliable customer base of daily commuters.

But the research from McGill’s School of Urban Planning determined external factors like the economy and gas prices are likely less influential than internal ones relating to transit operations, like service levels and fare prices.

In what the researchers say is the most comprehensive study to date of North America’s ridership problem, they looked at transit usage trends in 25 large cities in Canada and the United States from 2002 to 2015.

They found the factor that had the strongest association with changes in ridership was the amount of bus service agencies deployed. Every 10 per cent increase in kilometres of bus service was associated with an 8.27-per-cent increase in ridership.

“From a policy perspective, this research suggests that investments in public transport operations, especially bus services, can be a key factor to mitigate the decline in transit ridership or sustain and increase it,” the study asserts.

Although public debates about transit often centre on grand plans for multi-billion-dollar rail lines, Boisjoly said there are a number of reasons why buses might be more effective at increasing ridership.

“It’s easier to add service coverage with bus services, because it’s cheaper … you don’t need to add infrastructure” to reach new areas of the city, she said.

Because building new rail lines is expensive, most increases in rail service are achieved by increasing the frequency of trains on existing routes, “which is good but may not have the same impact on attracting new users and new trips,” according to Boisjoly.

Buses are the workhorses of Toronto’s transit system. Almost half of all TTC trips are taken by bus, while about 40 per cent are taken by subway. Streetcars make up about 10 per cent, and the Scarborough RT less than 1 per cent.

Bus ridership during off-peak hours is the only sector of TTC ridership that isn’t flatlining, according to a December report from the agency.

Bus service was reduced during the Rob Ford administration, but the TTC has been making gains in recent years, including by implementing a network of routes that offer service every 10 minutes or less all day, adding new express routes, and improving frequency on dozens of lines during peak and off-peak times.

TTC spokesperson Brad Ross said the agency hasn’t conducted a post-implementation analysis of all of the improvements, and “can’t yet conclude increased service equals increased ridership.”

The agency is in the midst of a major purchase of over 1,000 buses, most of which will replace older vehicles that are being retired, and is also refurbishing about 700 vehicles in its current fleet.

The ridership growth strategy the TTC board approved in January included increasing service reliability and frequency as one measure to attract more customers, but set no specific targets.

The strategy asserted that improving existing service would only produce modest gains however, and a more significant bump would require transformative steps like opening new rail lines and partnering with private transportation companies to provide “micro-transit” for “last mile” trips.

Boisjoly said while innovations like micro-transit might help, “I don’t think innovations on their own can address ridership problems, without improving the volume of service.”

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Shelagh Pizey-Allen, executive director of transit advocacy group TTCriders, said the study “shows why the NDP and Green Party’s plan to fairly fund the TTC is so urgent.”

Both parties have pledged to pick up half of the TTC’s net operating costs if they win next Thursday’s provincial election.

“Increasing transit ridership is as simple as more service and lower fares, but the TTC needs more funding to do that,” Pizey-Allen said.

The two other major parties aren’t promising to directly fund TTC operations. Instead, the Liberals plan to lower GO Transit fares within Toronto to $3, while the Ontario PC’s say uploading the subway system to the province would make it easier for Toronto to fund transit projects.