Debbie Lesko keeps Arizona 8th in GOP hands in special election

Show Caption Hide Caption Debbie Lesko speaks with supporters at Peoria home Republican candidate Debbie Lesko was in the lead after unofficial results were released on Tuesday. She spoke with supporters who had gathered at her home after results were released. Thomas Hawthorne/azcentral.com

PHOENIX — Republican Debbie Lesko defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the election to fill a vacant congressional seat that spans the west Phoenix area, but her relatively narrow victory margin Tuesday will do little to calm Republicans nervous about the midterm races.

Unofficial results from early balloting showed Lesko comfortably ahead of Tipirneni, her Democratic opponent, though well short of the lopsided results when President Donald Trump and former Republican Rep. Trent Franks carried the district two years ago.

The Associated Press called the race for Lesko shortly after she had a 9,000-vote lead over Tipirneni.

Even so, Lesko, a former state lawmaker, will head to Washington to replace Franks, who resigned his seat in December midway through his eighth term over sexual misconduct allegations. She will complete his term, which expires in January, and run for a full two-year term of her own in the fall elections.

Meanwhile, Democrats will point to an unbroken string of nine special federal elections now in which they have improved over their 2016 showing. That performance has the party looking ahead to the November elections with an eye toward regaining control of one or both chambers of Congress.

To do that, they still need to win a net 23 seats in the House after falling short in Arizona's 8th Congressional District.

Richard Herrera, an Arizona State University associate professor of political science, said Tipirneni posted a strong showing, given the district's lopsided partisan breakdown.

Democrats needed an unusually high number of independent voters to break for Tipirneni, but early results suggest they may have trended towards Lesko.

BREAKING: Republican Debbie Lesko wins special U.S. House election in Arizona, keeping seat in GOP control. — The Associated Press (@AP) April 25, 2018

That the margin as of Tuesday was 6 percentage points during the first batch of early returns will be considered a substantive win by Democrats, who haven't even bothered to run a candidate on the ballot since 2012, he said.

"Democrats are going to run again," in the district, Herrera predicted. "You don't want to give up when you come that close. They're going to get energized, they're going to be able to attract donors early. I'd be surprised if they give up on it."

He said the early results signals a shifting Republican electorate that is becoming more comfortable with detaching from the traditional moorings of their party.

That could make Republicans more vulnerable headed into the midterm elections.

"They’re certainly not going to be taking anything for granted, even if they’re running in an area that’s been considered safe," he added.

Lesko promised voters she would back the Trump administration, whether it involved hardline approaches to border security and immigration reforms or making permanent the $1.5 trillion tax cuts that passed in December.

As a state lawmaker, Lesko was especially supportive of legislation pushed by the Arizona Public Service utility and of highly controversial school-choice issues, one of which voters are attempting to overturn in November.

At a gathering last year of state-level Republicans and lobbyists hosted by the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council, Lesko appeared on stage with U.S. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos. Lesko moderated a conversation about DeVos' views on education in front of hundreds gathered and said, "We absolutely love what you have to say."

Tipirneni tried to play up worries that voters could not leave Social Security and Medicare in the hands of Lesko and House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Lesko plans to join the House Freedom Caucus, a group of about three dozen of arguably the most conservative GOP lawmakers in Washington. She would again give Arizona four members in that group.

Republicans and their allied outside groups spent more than $1 million to keep the Arizona seat in GOP control, while Democrats largely stayed out of the race.

Arizona, please get out today and vote @DebbieLesko for Congress in #AZ08. Strong on Border, Immigration and Crime. Great on the Military. Time is ticking down - get out and VOTE today. We need Debbie in Congress! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 24, 2018

It was a surprising pattern in a district in which Republicans had a 17-percentage-point voter registration advantage and where Trump won by 21 percentage points in 2016.

Trump implored Republicans to vote for Lesko in a tweet on Tuesday.

The message came amid generally low turnout and too late for voters to cast their ballots by mail. That could especially matter in a district where some of the most conservative voters come from retirement communities like the Sun cities and may find Election Day travel burdensome.

Before this year, Democrats had not fielded a candidate on the ballot since 2012. A Democrat hasn't won a congressional race in the West Valley since Bob Stump did in 1980, shortly before he switched to a Republican.

Herrera predicted Tipirneni's showing will empower candidates around the state to run for offices in districts they wouldn't typically try to contest.

"Certainly (Democrats are) doing that already by just running a candidate in the district," that is so heavily loaded against them, he said.

Lesko's election serves as a bookend of sorts to Franks' career. He replaced Stump after the 2002 elections and had flirted with a Senate run.

Franks' political aspirations ended in December after one female staffer claimed Franks repeatedly offered her $5 million to be the surrogate mother of his child. Another staffer said Franks tried to convince her that the two were in love.

Franks, who is quick to invoke his Christian beliefs and opposition to abortion, publicly denied the allegations. House Speaker Paul Ryan said he found the complaints credible and had opened an Ethics Committee investigation when Franks abruptly resigned.

Franks' personal choice to succeed him, former state Sen. Steve Montenegro, saw his own campaign unravel, in part after disclosures that he had engaged in a yearlong flirtatious texting relationship with a junior Senate staffer who sent him topless pictures of herself.

Lesko's campaign faced its own baggage.

A pending complaint to the Federal Election Commission claims Lesko improperly moved $50,000 in January from a political-action committee that was designed to support her state-level career to a newly formed federal PAC that backed her congressional bid.

Lesko's legal team maintains the maneuver is legal. Tipirneni, however, wasn’t shy about likening it to illegal money laundering.

Republicans pushed back on Tipirneni’s medical credentials, suggesting she quit practicing medicine to become a cancer research advocate because of a medical malpractice lawsuit years ago. Tipirneni said she switched her focus after her mother died of cancer.

The Phoenix-area district sprawls from New River south to Goodyear and from Peoria west past the Sun cities. It includes Luke Air Force Base and is entirely within Maricopa County.