Here are some estimates provided to us by Imgrund:

Ontario’s rate of increase is 18 per cent

“At the current rate, we can expect our 1,000th case in Ontario on March 26 and our 10,000th case on April 9. We are seeing an increase of 18% in the number of new cases each day. Currently, the number of total cases is doubling every 4.2 days. In the first two months in Wuhan, they saw an increase of 17% per day.”

(Note: The estimate is based on what Imgrund provided to us as of March 22.)

Ontario’s R-squared value 99.2 per cent vs. Wuhan’s 97.8 per cent

“My R-squared value means that 99.2 per cent of the data corresponds with my exponential model of the disease in Ontario. Generally, the R-squared value is a measure of how good the model is. This same model, when used to model the disease in Wuhan in its first two months, had a very similar R-squared value of 97.8 per cent.”

Doubling time is 4.2 days, needs to rise above six

“In most countries, the rate of COVID-19 infection is outpacing the 6-day doubling period the CDC would like to see (4.2 here in Ontario, compared to just over 2 in the USA). We need to do what we can to “flatten the curve” and increase our doubling period to something above 6 as they’ve done in mainland China and South Korea. Japan is also ahead of the curve and yet in the early stages of infection.”

Background: COVID-19 infection is still growing exponentially in many countries across the world. The doubling time has increased to six days or more in both South Korea and Iran, but remains between two to four days in countries like the U.S. and Canada.

About 30 per cent of COVID-19 tests still outstanding

“It should also be noted that my model is based off of CONFIRMED cases in Ontario and that 29.5 per cent of COVID-19 tests are still outstanding. Despite the large number of outstanding tests, I still don’t believe we are testing enough. Our province’s online self-assessment tool does not recommend self-isolation or testing of cases suspected to be from community transmission. Myself and many medical experts disagree with this stance.”

“COVID-19 is an outbreak that is chaotic and nonlinear in nature. We must take all actions necessary to control the epidemic and ensure we have the health resources necessary to treat the infected. This isn’t about causing panic; it’s about using real-time data to make decisions that will keep COVID-19 in check.”

Social distancing the new norm for 12 to 18 months

“My model shows that COVID-19 will not be going away. At this point, all we can do is implement measures to contain this outbreak. Social distancing will be the new norm for the next 12 to 18 months.

As a side note, China has been successful in containing the virus by using a Tri-Component Strategy: locating and controlling the sources of infection, identify and blocking transmission paths, and protecting those who are susceptible. This is the strategy we need to abide by here in Canada.”

Impossible to tell how many actual cases there will be

“The number of COVID-19 cases is still growing at an exponential rate here in Ontario. With our current testing protocol not testing for cases of community transmission, it’s impossible to tell how many actual cases there will be. But I do hope my model’s prediction that the maximum number of new cases per day will peak around April 10 is an accurate one.”

Final death toll could be 270 in Ontario

“I’m hesitant to provide a final death toll at this time as our current testing protocol is insufficient.

My current model, which I’m updating daily, predicts a final number of COVID-19 deaths as being 270. Sadly, I feel this projection is very optimistic.”

He added: “The death toll of 270 is based of my logistic model from March 22nd which showed our cases peaking at just over 13,000 and a fatality rate of 2%. With today’s numbers, my logistic model tapers off at 21,000 putting the death toll at 420."

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The story was updated on March 25 to explain how Imgrund came up with the death toll number and how it's changing.