Deep in Central Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory, the Mimal rangers are proud to be on the front line of Australia's fight to reduce climate change-causing emissions.

Key points: The energy industry estimates the Beetaloo Basin contains enough resources to power Australia for 200 years

The energy industry estimates the Beetaloo Basin contains enough resources to power Australia for 200 years Emails reveal Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor received a warning developing the basin could jeopardise Australia's Paris emission target

Emails reveal Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor received a warning developing the basin could jeopardise Australia's Paris emission target One projection estimated the development could generate 117 million tonnes of greenhouse gas

The Mimal rangers are one of 29 Indigenous groups paid by the Federal Government and private companies to prevent 1.2 million tonnes of greenhouse gases being released from wildfires across Northern Australia each year.

That's the equivalent of taking 400,000 cars off the road.

"The money supports all the rangers, not only us mob in Mimal, it's right through the region," senior Mimal ranger Alfred Rickson said.

But the rangers' emissions reduction work is expected to be cancelled out almost 100 times by a new massive gas industry starting in the Northern Territory.

Alfred Rickson of the Mimal rangers helps manage land in Arnhem Land. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

The CEO of Mimal Land Management, Dominic Nicholls, said the number "beggars belief".

"The financial impact of having to deal with those emissions would put that whole project at high risk, I would have thought," he said.

Internal government emails reveal for the first time that the industry is expected to produce so much greenhouse gas, it has the potential to jeopardise Australia's Paris emissions reduction target.

The gasfield that could power Australia for 200 years

The gas industry has estimated the Beetaloo Basin, an enormous shale gas resource 400 kilometres south of Darwin, contains enough energy to power Australia for 200 years.

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Both the Federal Government and the Northern Territory's Labor Government are enthusiastic about the potential of developing the basin.

But according to documents obtained under Freedom of Information by Background Briefing, developing the Beetaloo could threaten Australia's ability to meet its Paris targets.

Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor received the warning from his Environment and Energy Department last year.

"Emissions from development of onshore shale gas in the Northern Territory may be difficult to offset and could impact on Australia's progress in meeting Paris Agreement commitments," the department warned.

"Developments could eventually lead to life cycle emissions in Australia of 5 to 39 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year."

Gas exploration has expanded in the Beetaloo Basin. ( Supplied )

Further documents reveal that this estimate could actually be on the low end.

Northern Territory officials later warned the Federal Government the development could create three times the amount of greenhouse gas emissions originally expected.

"[We are] looking at somewhere between 39 million tonnes to 117 million tonnes a year in carbon offsets," they said in email correspondence summarising a meeting to discuss how the emissions could be offset.

Map The Beetaloo Sub-basin

The 117 million tonnes of greenhouse gas would be equivalent to 22 per cent of Australia's current annual emissions.

If the development produced emissions at that rate, it would be the equivalent to more than seven times the emissions from the decommissioned Hazlewood coal-fired power station, formerly the worst power station in Australia for emissions.

In October last year, Mr Taylor told Background Briefing the NT's new gas industry could be developed while Australia also meets its Paris Agreement commitment to reduce emissions.

"We've laid out to the last tonne how we'll meet our 2030 Paris obligations and of course up in the Top End there's a range of projects that are contributing to that," he said.

"Gas is playing an enormously important role in helping to reduce emissions around the world.

"Gas has significantly lower emissions, gas has about half of the equivalent emissions from coal, but gas also plays a very important role in complementing renewables to provide reliable power."

As federal and Northern Territory authorities continue to back the development of the Beetaloo, communities across the Northern Territory are struggling to cope with worsening impacts from climate change.

"People need to take heed of these warnings," Mr Nicholls said.

"We can all see where this is going and there seems to be a real head-in-the-sand approach from governments even when presented with real figures."

Fighting fire with fire

From May to August last year, the Mimal rangers burned a network of firebreaks into the landscape.

Back-burning by the Mimal rangers is a key part of their land management. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

By burning these breaks into vast areas of Arnhem Land in the cool early dry season each year the Mimal and other ranger groups prevent the release of much more greenhouse gas from hot late-season wildfires.

By the late dry season, hot wildfires which threaten to consume everything in their path usually go out naturally at the firebreaks, or the rangers use the firebreaks as a defence point to fight them.

One of the Mimal rangers burning a line through the grass. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

This year, just like on Australia's east coast, the Arnhem Land ranger groups were forced to fight fires that were hotter, more intense, and burned longer from August to January, according to Mr Nicholls.

"It was a completely different year and we've done probably, five, six times the level of fire fighting than we would in a normal year," he said.

Dominic Nicholls, the CEO of the Mimal rangers, said climate change has made wildfires more dangerous. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

He said rangers protected their communities, but they are worried wildfires will continue to get worse.

"There's no doubt climate change has been one of the key impactors on our fire regime.

"We're clear that what used to be one in 10-year challenging events are more likely to be two or three times in a 10-year period.

"And we're not funded and equipped to deal with that kind of fire fighting."



'This wasn't normal'

All across the Northern Territory, Indigenous communities are warning governments climate change is damaging their country.

The Kakadu could be threatened by sea water entering the freshwater wetlands. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

In Kakadu National Park, senior traditional owner and former park ranger Jonathan Nadji has watched the sea level rise, gradually letting salt water creep into the World Heritage freshwater wetlands.

"This is causing a lot of damage to the floodplain, killing a lot of freshwater species, long-necked turtle, file snakes, a lot of things," he said.

Jonathan Nadji said wildfires in Kakadu convinced him of the dangers of climate change. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

The CSIRO estimates almost half the wetlands will be submerged in the next 50 years.

Within 100 years, the entire floodplain will be inundated with saltwater.

But it was a wildfire in Kakadu last October that really brought climate change home to Mr Nadji.

It ripped into the East Alligator Ranger Station in October and burnt down his son's house.

He said his efforts to fight the fire with his partner, in a car with a water tank on the back, nearly got him killed.

"This wasn't normal, this was very scary," he said.

Jonathan Nadji and his partner in the Kakadu at the site where they fought a wildfire. ( ABC: Jane Bardon )

"I thought we were going to basically get burnt."

"It got to the stage where I thought: now it's time to just back off."

Mr Nadji''s son's home was lost in the fire. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

Mr Nadji thinks governments aren't paying enough attention to the warnings the land is giving us about climate change.

"It's trying to show us: 'I'm here now, please act now."

A catastrophic combination

Four years ago, Marra traditional owner Patsy Evans discovered mangrove forests on her land were dying and warned the Northern Territory and Queensland governments.

Mangroves have died near Limmen due to several climate change-related factors. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

It's one of the worst examples of how several climate change effects have combined to cause lasting damage and four years later, Ms Evans said there's been little recovery.

"I can't believe how bad it is. It just makes me feel sad. It looks like a cyclone been through it," she said.

As far as the eye could see, bare, ghostly white broken trunks were bowed and the normally fecund mud was blowing away as grey dust.

Desiccated shells and crabs littered the ground.

Looking at the devastation, Ms Evans said she was at a loss about what to do when the decisions about how to respond to climate change are being made at cabinet tables and in boardrooms a world away.

"It's bad and something should be done about it, but what can we do?" she said.

Desiccated shells and crabs litter the ground among dead mangroves near Limmen. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

The mangroves along 1,000 kilometres of Gulf of Carpentaria coastline have died because of rising temperatures and a lack of rain, CSIRO's leader of Climate Extremes Dr Kathleen McInnes said.

"The compounding effect can be felt years down the track because mangroves provide important recruitment grounds for prawn larvae and for fish.

"The flow-on effect can be into our fishing industry in subsequent years when stocks drop," she added

Dr McInnes said even if global powers meet their current Paris Agreement emissions reduction commitments, it will not be enough to stop the world's average temperature continuing to increase by up to another three degrees by the end of this century.

"If we're experiencing some of the extreme climate and weather conditions now, under one-degree warming, it's almost hard to imagine how dire the extreme events could become, because it's not just the extreme events occurring, it's the frequency with which they're occurring," she said.

The Future of the Beetaloo

In September, then-federal resources minister Matt Canavan spoke at a gas industry conference in Darwin and reiterated his support for the development of the Beetaloo Basin.

"This industry is not just one of the most important to the world but it's also one of the industries where the greatest change is occurring," he said.

The Beetaloo Basin is being pegged as a future hub of Australian gas production. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

The basin has the potential to change Australia's position in the gas world, moving us from having the seventh-largest gas resources in the world up to sixth place.

At the same conference, the Northern Territory's Labor Chief Minister Michael Gunner said the Beetaloo could have a significant impact on the fortunes of the Territory.

"The Beetaloo could be globally significant," he said.

"It will lead to Darwin becoming the manufacturing hub of the North."

The exploration of the gasfield can go ahead without significantly increasing Australia's greenhouse gas emissions, according to NT Climate Change Minister Eva Lawler, because she is working with the Commonwealth to find ways of offsetting them.

"We'll work through that in the next three to five years," she said.

"The Northern Territory can balance the jobs, the economy, the economic benefit up with the environment."

Background Briefing now knows that behind the scenes the Minister, Angus Taylor, had been warned developing the Beetaloo Basin could threaten Australia's ability to meet its Paris target of reducing emissions by at least 26 per cent.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor said the gas industry would help reduce emissions around the world. ( ABC: Marco Catalano )

Both governments knew the potential emissions estimate had increased three times.

Asked to respond to the information in these documents, Minister Taylor said in a statement: "Australians can be proud of our LNG industry.

"Not only is this industry worth $49 billion to our economy, but the gas that we export is helping to reduce emissions in other countries by up to 159 million tonnes a year."

Tom Swann, a researcher with the Canberra-based think tank, the Australia Institute, said the revelations in the documents are "deeply concerning".

"The emissions from just one field in the Beetaloo Basin would cause up to 117 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, and to put that in context, that's larger than all offset credits ever issued by the Australian Government."

A clearing in the Beetaloo Basin, with a small well in the centre, is part of gas exploration in the region. ( ABC News: Jane Bardon )

After a year working flat out with his rangers to prevent emissions, Mimal CEO Dominic Nicholls is dismayed the Northern Territory and Federal governments are determined the Beetaloo gas industry will go ahead.

"There's an international impact on our obligations, but the whole point of this international exercise is for the world to take on a problem, because it affects people and their everyday lives," he said.

"It's impacting the physical landscape, and the landscape that sustains us.

"And in remote Indigenous communities where you already have severe pressure on peoples' culture and social and economic existence, this is just another tranche of impact."