Economist says worries about mass unemployment are misplaced and workers are more concerned about technology than they should be

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Robots will not steal workers’ jobs nor suppress pay, but fear of automation may be contributing to stagnant wages, according to Deloitte Access Economics.

At the National Press Club on Wednesday, Deloitte partner Chris Richardson will argue that improving technology is shifting the mix of skills in demand with employers but fears of mass unemployment are “entirely misplaced”.

In the speech, seen by Guardian Australia, Richardson says despite technological change accelerating for decades, unemployment is “close to record lows around the world” – including the US, UK and Australia.

“So if you feared that new technologies would lead to mass unemployment … it just isn’t happening.

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“New technologies are improving what workers do rather than replacing those workers overall.”

Richardson compares fears that robots will “steal” jobs with fears that migrants would do the same – or married women – in times past.

“But new technologies create as many jobs as they kill,” he says. “It’s just that the ones they kill are obvious, while the ones they create are hiding in plain sight.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson: ‘New technologies are improving what workers do rather than replacing those workers overall.’ Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Richardson says the predicted trend of Australians having “heaps of jobs” over their career has not eventuated. “Almost half – 45% of all workers in Australia – have been with their current employer more than five years.

“And the average Australian worker has been in their current job for almost five months longer than was true just a decade ago.”

Nor has work in the gig economy and working from home replaced traditional modes of employment, he says.

“Finally, you can’t blame technology for the lack of wage growth in Australia and around the world.

“It’s the opposite that’s true … better technologies make workers more valuable and that leads to them getting higher wages.”

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Richardson cites the fact that countries with the most technology per worker also have the highest pay.

He suggests that workers and employers are “getting more worried about what the future may bring” and fear of the future “may well be one of the main reasons why wage growth isn’t acting the same way that it used to”.

“All around the world a given level of unemployment is generating less by way of wage gains. That’s partly because the rise of the robots … [has] workers more worried than they should be.”

Australia has experienced six years of well-below-average wage growth, although wages ticked up to annual growth of 2.3% in the last quarter.

Research by the Australian National University has found there is “a not insignificant minority of workers who worry about automation” although this is “less of a concern than other sources” of displacement.

It found that workers are more concerned about their employer finding someone overseas who is willing to perform their job for less money, with 14.8% very concerned by the prospect.

On Wednesday Deloitte will release a report titled The Path to Prosperity: Why the Future of Work is Human, suggesting that in the future jobs will require fewer manual skills and more cognitive skills.

More than 80% of jobs created between now and 2030 will be for knowledge workers, and two-thirds will be strongly reliant on soft skills, it says.

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The growing demand for workers performing “non-routine” tasks with their heads as opposed to “routine” tasks with their hands will see the most jobs growth in female-dominated industries.

Australian science agency the CSIRO has suggested that automation of low-skilled jobs will leave human workers free to do more complex jobs, with titles such as remote-controlled vehicle operators or online chaperones.

Richardson suggests the government should help workers fill their skills gaps through measures including lifelong learning.

He also warns against “policy mistakes” such as attempting to impose a tax on robots as proposed by Bill Gates and in Europe, arguing such a measure would “simply lower wage gains”.