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For the Golden State Warriors, the danger of an NBA Finals upset—and the historic level of disappointment that would accompany such an outcome—never felt real.

Until now.

The Cleveland Cavaliers embarrassed, out-competed and outclassed the Warriors in Game 6 on Thursday at Quicken Loans Arena, ripping things open with a 31-11 first quarter and turning away every desperate Dubs counter. The 115-101 win means the Cavs are now one victory away from becoming the first team to come back from a 3-1 Finals hole.

Golden State missed open shots early on, continuing a Game 5 trend everyone expected would reverse. But the Cavs relentlessly targeted Stephen Curry on the other end, generating good looks and landing the MVP in early foul trouble that plagued him for the balance of the contest.

As Curry and the rest of the Warriors failed to match Cleveland's early focus, aggression and intensity, the margin grew. And unlike Game 5, it wasn't remotely tempting to lean on a belief that things would normalize, that the Warriors simply needed to stay the course and count on their shots eventually falling.

This was different, and ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne saw it as plainly as everyone else:

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LeBron James melded precision and force throughout, leading the early burst with pinpoint passes like this:

Most skeptics were right: Kyrie Irving and James couldn't possibly turn in two performances for Game 6 as good as the ones they needed to win Game 5. But as James' efforts were concerned, those doubters were only wrong because James played even better.

He finished with 41 points, 11 assists, eight rebounds, four steals and three blocks on 16-of-27 shooting. We've reached the point where it shouldn't matter what happens in Game 7. James deserves the Finals MVP award regardless.

Every time the Warriors made a push, he was there to shove back. Emphatically:

Consider his combined stat line from these last two elimination games, per Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press:

As a result of James' transcendent play and the Cavaliers' broader superiority in Game 6, the landscape of this series has changed. Up until now, the Warriors were never in position to feel threatened. There were crutches to lean on: 73 wins, a unanimous MVP, the resilience of a team that couldn't lose three games in a row, the seeming certainty that open looks would eventually fall. Months and months of data supported a continued belief in Golden State.

The Warriors could trust in the big sample. They could put their faith in the idea that getting to this point was about more than luck, that things would work out for them because, well...things always worked out for them. Overconfidence may have sapped the required urgency, as the Dubs didn't conduct themselves like they were in danger before or during Game 6.

"No heroics necessary," head coach Steve Kerr told reporters before the contest. "Just be rock solid."

The Warriors are in danger now—even if a Game 7 at home means they'll be favored to win—because the Cavaliers' terrific play has shrunk the sample.

This is about one game.

An anomaly like, say, Irving shooting 17-of-24 from the field like he did in Game 5, could result in a ring for Cleveland. And because the Warriors missed opportunities to close out the series in Games 5 and 6, they've let the Cavs hang on long enough for the circumstances to tilt further in their favor.

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Andrew Bogut is out with a knee injury. Andre Iguodala could barely stand Thursday because of back tightness. If he's not healthy for Game 7, who knows what James might do?

Harrison Barnes' game has flatlined. He was visibly hesitant Thursday, shooting 0-of-8 after hitting just two of his 14 shots in Game 5. Festus Ezeli is virtually unplayable. Shaun Livingston looks worn down. Curry continues to lack the lateral quickness he displayed before his knee injury against the Houston Rockets.

The things that made the Warriors so great for so many months—depth, transcendent shooting, lockdown defense—aren't what they were. After losing just nine games in the regular season, they've dropped eight during the playoffs.

This is not the same Warriors team, and perhaps part of their perplexing hesitancy to start Game 6 stems from sensing this. It's as if they can feel their death grip on the season slipping.

James, by contrast, appears totally in control. It is impossible to watch him at this level and conclude he's anything other than the best player on the planet.

Maybe he told Curry as much here:

On the topic of control, Curry lost his and got ejected after fouling out and throwing his mouthguard into the stands:

His confidence remains, per Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group:

Curry should be confident. His MVP award and his team's track record still count for a lot.

But maybe what we're learning in this series is we need to constantly adjust exactly how much those things (and all the Warriors' other accomplishments) count for. We need to recalibrate our basketball value systems regularly.

It always seems safest to rely on the largest sample, to answer the thorniest questions about what's coming next by looking at what's already happened. The Warriors were the best team all year, so we've leaned on that fact whenever presented with uncertainty about what they are now.

They've got one game to prove all the things we thought about them this year are still true.

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