Future Outlook

Trade Deadline

2020 NBA Draft

Brighter Days are Ahead

It takes some guts to defer your resources to next season, especially when the fan base is excited, but I truly believe that this season is already a lost cause. Even if the Pelicans snuck into the 8th spot in the West, the Lakers and the Clippers are a buzz saw that the Pelicans can not beat as currently constructed. The front office should punt on this season and do what is best for the future of the franchise, so that New Orleans can have meaningful basketball for years to come.Sports fans are often guilty of being impatient and wanting to win right now, but the best Front Offices in sports know that patience is a virtue and have put a clear plan in place to succeed in the future. Every team wants to build a dynasty that will keep them successful for an extended period of time (think New England Patriots, San Antonio Spurs, and more recently, the Golden State Warriors). The Pelicans are loaded with young, promising talent and they have the makings to build a team that will be successful for years to come if they execute properly and maximize their assets.The NBA’s Trade Deadline is fast approaching; February 6th looms in the distance. The Trade Deadline is often full of blockbuster trades, jaw dropping news, and is a time where NBA teams have to decide whether they want to go all in for the current season or set themselves up for the long haul. The Pelicans have three interesting players who have expiring contracts, and are prime candidates to be traded before the deadline. The Pelicans should sell high on expiring contracts to acquire young players with potential or capital in the upcoming NBA Draft. Derrick Favors has a hefty $17.65 Million expiring contract but he has produced his highest Rebound Percentage (22.5%), a very good Player Efficiency Rating (19.2) and is known around the league as a very good defender. Favors can really benefit a contending team like the Clippers, Celtics, or Mavericks who are all rumored to be searching for big man help. E’Twaun Moore is another expiring contract that New Orleans may look to move to a contender in search of some outside marksmanship. E’Twaun has shot 41% on his 3-Point Attempts in his 4 seasons in New Orleans. At only $8.6 Million, his contract should be a little bit easier to match for a potential trade partner. The Celtics, Bucks, Nuggets, Sixers, and Rockets are all playoff teams that are below-average in 3-Point Percentage this season and may be willing to offer up a young player or draft compensation to rent E’Twaun for the Playoffs. Jahlil Okafor is the last of the 3 expiring contracts that I expect New Orleans to move. Jahlil has struggled to find consistent playing time with New Orleans but has really shined in limited action. Just last night against the Detroit Pistons, in a rare start for him, he scored 25 points, snagged 14 rebounds, dished out 5 assists, and blocked 3 shots. On the season Okafor has a promising 18.4 Player Efficiency Rating, and when his stats are extrapolated Per 36 Minutes, he averages 18.4 Points Per Game, 10 Rebounds Per Game, and almost 2 Blocks Per Game. Jahlil is a low cost, high upside rental. Jahlil Okafor, as some may know, was highly touted out of Duke and was drafted with the 3rd Overall Pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. JJ Reddick , the veteran sharpshooter, and Jrue Holiday , the star point guard, are not on expiring contracts, but rumors have circulated that they may be dealt in order to bolster the Pelicans’ future. It is likely that a team searching for an outside shooter would fork over a first round pick for a year and a half of JJ Reddick. Reddick has enjoyed a renaissance over the last few years, but is putting together quite the year so far in his 14th season. He is shooting a deadly 46% from downtown (Second best in the NBA among qualified players), and has crafted a career best Effective Field Goal Percentage (.597) that is best among all guards. Whichever team acquires Reddick is only on the hook for $13 Million this season and another $13 Million next season. This is a very team-friendly deal for someone of his caliber and with the veteran leadership he provides. The friendly contract may benefit the Pelicans in their quest to obtain assets and compete in the 2020-2021 season and beyond. Jrue Holiday is a bonafide star, but he totes a massive contract at $26 Million per year through 2021-2022, and the Pelicans have a high upside and cheaper option in Lonzo Ball for just $11 Million next season. Finding a trade partner for Jrue Holiday may prove difficult due to his large contract and the Pelicans’ asking price. A first round pick and a young player with potential or maybe even two first round picks will be expected. Only the rebuilding Atlanta Hawks are below the Salary Cap, so salaries will have to match on any trade made for a contract that large.The Pelicans have their own first round pick, which becomes more valuable the more they lose. They also have the Cleveland Cavaliers pick as long as it doesn’t end up in the top 10 picks. I would not be surprised if New Orleans traded a future pick (2021 Lakers pick, 2024 Lakers pick, or some of their own) for an extra first rounder in this upcoming draft. The Pelicans made 3 first round selections in the past draft, and adding another 3 or so promising rookies to a core of Brandon Ingram (pending a contract extension), Zion Williamson , and Lonzo Ball sounds as exciting as it gets for basketball fans.Breathe easy Pelicans fans, there are brighter days ahead. Re-signing breakout star Brandon Ingram should be priority number one, and some players may be traded at the deadline to ensure the necessary cap space to do so. New Orleans already possesses some quality draft picks and is likely to acquire even more young assets to support Zion, Ingram, and Ball over the next few years. Louisiana residents deserve a quality product on the basketball court again, and I believe they will obtain that in the near future if GM David Griffin and the front office prioritize future success over the profits they’d make from two home playoff losses to the Lakers.