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INSIGHT - Russia/Israel/Georgia/Mexico - defense deals and swaps

Released on 2012-02-27 15:00 GMT

Email-ID 64027 Date 2009-02-26 04:37:21 From reva.bhalla@stratfor.com To secure@stratfor.com

INSIGHT - Russia/Israel/Georgia/Mexico - defense deals and swaps





Please see insight message further below for more context

PUBLICATION: No, but ask first

ATTRIBUTION: N/A

SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,

writes for Jane's

SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1

SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:

SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a

Met with my Mexican source/friend again today and dude is getting shadier

by the day. We followed up on our past discussion on Russia compromising

the Israeli-made Georgian UAVs prior to the August war.

Here is what else I learned

One of the source's friends/colleagues -- formerly military i think but

now does private defense deals on the side (it's Mexico) contacted him in

July (prior to the Georgia war). Apparently the Georgians had contacted

this guy because they were frantically looking for a replacement for the

Israeli UAVs that were compromised. Not only that, but they asked for

10,000 rounds of ammo (source was talking fast, so i dunno if this is

exactly what he said) but something like 6.22 mm rounds, 'NATO standard'

because the Chinese ammo that the Georgians had only went 400 yards. Also

on the list was a request for 2 bell helicopters. The Georgians were

pretty much looking for anyone who would sell to them and were willing to

pay top dollar (shows how frantic the Georgians were in July knowing that

war is coming). My source put the other guy in touch with a private

defense contractor to make the deal but ended up getting screwed over with

the commission.

Here is the most interesting part:

I inquired more about the compromised Israeli UAVs. What he explained was

that Israel and Russia made a swap -- Israel gave Russia the 'data link'

code for those specific UAVs; in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for

Iran's Tor-M1s.

I asked about the S-300 (source tracks a lot of defense deals for Jane's).

He doesn't think the Russians will give it to the Iranians. Besides, he

said... Israel and Turkey have been collaborating very closely on the

S-300s. He explain how about 8 years ago when Russia sold S-300s to Greece

to base in Crete (which were supposed to protect Cyprus), Russia delivered

those with a carrier so that Turkey wouldn't try to sink them. (things got

a bit noisy so i may have misheard some of this). The gist of what he said

is that Turkey has been cracking the S-300 since the Crete sale and has

been sharing intel on the S-300 with the Israelis to ensure that they

retain an advantage over Iran should Iran get them from the Russians.

as far as the Georgian UAVs go, they were interested in the Mexican ones

because the Mexican UAVs had something (forget the name. it was

auto-something' that basically backs up teh UAV system in case someone

hacks into it and immediately returns the UAV to base.

Previous insight:

PUBLICATION: ask me first

ATTRIBUTION: N/A

SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,

writes for Jane's

SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1

SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:

SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a

I was getting a drink with my Mexican cop friend after class and we

started talking about Mexican UAVs. He has been advising the government

for the past couple years on the need for more UAV use for the military

against the cartels. I read one of his policy memos on paper that was

pretty technobabbly, but if you guys need any info on this, he's the guy.

The army and the navy have UAV capability, though the army doesn't really

take them all that seriously. Recently (like a year ago) the federalistas

(fed police) started using them too.

Ok, here's the really juicy part:

There is a private Mexican company called Idra that the government funded

to make UAVs. They are actually pretty high standard according to him and

beat out the Israeli UAVs in testing. My friend was consulting Idra at the

time and so he was privy to a lot of deals that were on the table. This is

the story --

The Mexican government is now paying some $25m (? can get the #s later)

for UAVs from Israel. Idra is basically like WTF, but the reason is

basically corruption. There is a deal b/w the Mexican interior ministry

and the Israelis where they're getting a hefty kickback.

This is the interesting part, though.

Idra had an offer to sell UAVs to Georgia (this was happening during and

after the war). The reason Georgia needed the UAVs is because the UAVs

they had bought from Israel had been compromised by the Russians. The

Russians got the data link for the UAV (there is some suspicion that the

Israelis after the war may have given this to them. Remember all the

intense mtgs b/w the Israelis and the Russians where the Russians got the

Israelis to back off of defense deals to Georgia in return for Russia

backing off Iran?). Anyway, the Georgians gave Idra a picture of one of

their crashed UAVs. The source explained though that if the UAV were

targeted, it would have been blown to pieces pretty much (it's like the

size of a car basically). But the picture he saw showed the UAV intact. He

inquired and basically what happened was that the Russians acquired the

data link to hack into the system and force the UAV into the ground. I

think they may have crashed another one too.

So, since the Georgian UAVs were compromised, they then tried to sell them

to the Azerbaijanis. I dont know if that deal went through. Idra backed

off the deal to Georgia because they were advised that it would raise a

lot of political complications between Mexico and Russia.

I asked about other deals between Idra and foreign countries. Chavez was

the first one who wanted to buy their UAVs. The source advised them to not

have their first foreign sale be to someone like Chavez for political

reasons.

Can get follow-up info if anyone is interested. I just thought this was a

fun little story.









