From the moment Cam Newton entered the league in 2011, he was an unfair fantasy asset. His first game featured a pair of long TD tosses to Steve Smith and a one-yard TD plunge. He finished the day with 422 passing yards, destroying the all-time record for first-game yardage. Fantasy experts cautioned you not to another performance quite like that, not from a rookie QB.

Then, in Cam’s second pro game, he passed for 432 yards, rushed for 53 and delivered another two scores.

And so it went. Even when the yards weren’t there, the touchdowns kept piling up. By the end of the year, he owned the records for rookie passing yards (4051) and for single-season rushing TDs by a quarterback (14). He was the third highest-coring fantasy QB of 2011. Owning Cam in fantasy was essentially like owning a combo QB2/RB2.

Again, unfair.

Newton is now entering his seventh pro season, however, and he’s a high-mileage player. He has a significant ankle injury on his medical chart, and he underwent rotator cuff surgery back in March. It certainly doesn’t help that Cam has never received the Brady-Rodgers-Brees treatment from NFL officials. That is, you can do stuff like this to him, and it often goes unpenalized.

Cam is coming off his worst season in terms of passer-rating (75.8), completion percentage (52.9), yards per attempt (6.88) and rushing yards (359) — all the stuff you care about, basically. We think he’s on track to start the season-opener against the Niners. He’s been throwing in camp, though not entirely without fatigue and pain. This year, the team has added a few short-range receiving weapons, notably rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel. The Panthers offense will emphasize quick throws, designed to protect Cam, move chains and get the ball to dynamic playmakers with room to operate. Over the past five years, no Carolina running back has caught more than 27 passes in any single season, but McCaffrey has a clear shot at 50-plus in 2017.

Newton has never been known for his accuracy or touch, of course, but, if the scheme changes stick, he’s a good bet to complete 60 percent of his throws for the first time since 2013. Cam’s offseason comments suggest that he intends to keep running the ball, but the coaching staff isn’t as eager to see him absorb many hits as a ball-carrier. This from Ron Rivera, via SI:

“Now [Newton] is at that point in his career where everything we do with him we have to do judicially if he’s going to run the ball. It has to be the right situation and circumstances. We have to be aware of that. He’s not that young guy that we can throw out there and say, ‘Go do your thing.’ He’s now that veteran, crafty guy.”

It really doesn’t seem reasonable to forecast more than 400-450 rushing yards (with 4-6 rushing scores) from Cam in the season ahead, yet it’s also not crazy to hope for a 4000-yard passing season. Newton is typically drafted as the ninth QB off the board in Yahoo leagues (ADP 74.8), which is a bit too expensive for me. I’d prefer Big Ben or Cousins a few spots later (78.4, 88.8), or any of the various late-round options beyond the top-100 picks (Rivers, Dalton, Tyrod, Palmer, et al.)

Ultimately, we can expect Cam’s season-long value to hinge on two things that are tricky to predict: 1) how often he calls his own number at the goal-line, and 2) the health of a thin-but-skilled receiving corps.

Greg Olsen leads a top-heavy collection of receivers

What we like best about the Carolina receivers, at least for fantasy purposes, is that so few of them are likely to see significant volume. This team completed 306 passes last season, 197 of which went to three players. For the second straight year, Olsen led the Panthers in targets (127), receptions (80) and receiving yards (1073). He’s delivered at least 75 catches and 1000 yards in each of the past three seasons, establishing himself as arguably the game’s most bankable, reliable tight end. Olsen hasn’t missed a game in nine years, an absurd record of durability. He’s the third tight end off the board in an average Yahoo draft (ADP 44.4), which of course is perfectly reasonable. Olsen is 32 years old, entering a contract year, and he’s a preferred target for Newton. He was curiously touchdown-challenged last season (3), but he’s seen 35 red-zone chances over the past two years. Prior to 2016, he’d given us three straight seasons with at least a half-dozen spikes. He’s a guy you simply draft, start and ride throughout the season, without hesitation.