Analysis:

BENGALURU: The last big bastion. This is how Karnataka is being viewed by both the Congress and the BJP as they put the results from Gujarat behind them and prepare for a showdown at the hustings in the state with assembly elections scheduled for April-May next year. While the BJP will, no doubt, intensify its efforts to capture Karnataka and accomplish its goal of creating a ‘Congress mukt Bharat’, the ruling Congress will go fullthrottle to ensure the party keeps its grip on power.Unlike in Gujarat where the BJP was expected to secure an easy victory, the forthcoming polls in Karnataka could be a game-changer for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and new Congress chief Rahul Gandhi . The popularity of the one and the political shrewdness of the other will be put to a stern test. Both parties had kicked off their poll campaigns in Karnataka even before elections in Gujarat were announced.“It will be a fight to the finish in Karnataka,” sources in both the parties claimed. While the BJP continues to flash the Hindutva card, the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government is playing the development card.Chief minister Siddaramaiah, said: “Our party has lost, yet it has gained. This is the first step towards the Vijay Yatra (victory march) of Rahul who has taken over as Congress president. We will ensure a win in Karnataka and it will be our gift to him.”Siddaramaiah, under whose leadership the assembly polls will be fought, is of the strong view that ‘Modi magic’ will not work in Karnataka. “Here, local issues dominate assembly polls and we are ahead of other parties,” Siddaramaiah said, while spiking reports about anti-incumbency. Currently, the Congress strength in the 224-member assembly is 127.Siddaramaiah has not only unleashed a social media blitzkrieg (a forte of the BJP) to highlight the achievements of his government, but has also hit the bullseye by splitting the Lingayats — a numerically dominant community that usually rallied behind the BJP. Consolidating his Ahinda (Kannada acronym for dalits, backward classes and minorities) vote bank by doling out sops, Siddaramaiah has also been blaming the Modi government for the state’s ills — be it the Mahadayi and Cauvery water row or issues faced by farmers in the state.Siddaramaiah’s bold rhetoric has alarmed BJP strategists, who continue to struggle to find an appropriate narrative to take on the Congress. The BJP tried to pin down the Congress citing corruption, but that did not gain traction among the people as allegations were not backed by concrete evidence. The BJP has now reverted to its old template: Hardline Hindutva strategy and polarisation of votes on communal lines. Internally too, the BJP is weak. Feuds among leaders have left grassroot cadres demoralized. Also, not many have endorsed B S Yeddyurappa as the chief-ministerial candidate.State BJP leaders feel that a bigger shove will come from the Modi-Shah duo. Still, the Gujarat outcome is a ray of hope for state leaders.Yeddyurappa said: “The party’s victory is an endorsement of Modi’s rule. The same will happen in Karnataka assembly polls. Unlike Gujarat, anti-incumbency will work here as people are fed up with the Siddaramaiah government. The Modi-Shah factor will work for the BJP here.”The JDS, potential kingmakers in case of a fractured mandate, are unenthused by either party. “Both the parties need not feel great about Gujarat outcome. While the BJP’s popularity has diminished, the Congress has struggled to increase visibility,” said JDS state president H D Kumaraswamy.