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Canadians have been complacent about the possibility of Donald J. Trump being elected U.S. president. Fortunately, the breadth and depth of Canada’s relationship with the United States will ensure continuity and many policies will remain the same for now.

At the top of President Trump’s agenda would be national and Homeland Security, followed with dealing with a sputtering economy probably in recession by 2017. Defence, domestic tranquillity and good jobs for Americans will thematically colour many of the issues between Canada and the U.S., whether trade, environment, border security or defence.

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Circumstances have changed since the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement and NAFTA were emplaced. Equal access to Canadian oil and gas for U.S. firms was a major concern that has been superseded by the shale oil and gas revolution in the U.S. Currently, the U.S. has little to gain from increasing access to Canadian oil. Many new domestic U.S. oil and gas projects are employing Americans at decent wages, even at depressed prices. Indeed, the U.S. will be hard pressed to make room for oil imports from trouble spots like Venezuela to facilitate post-regime stabilization. One of Canada’s biggest bargaining chips for decades — Canadian natural resources — is now of far lesser value. Canadians should not expect Donald Trump’s favourable statements on Keystone XL to mean approval even if the deal is sweetened. Keystone XL approval will only marginally help Canadians going forward; there is a need to find different formulas to increase the value added benefits of Canadian resource exports.