UPDATE: Hops prices are now soaring. Great. –Eds.

Sound the alarms! It's not just Velveeta and Sriracha facing possible supply shortages. Currently, a world hops shortage also seems imminent. Then again, with the unique way hops are purchased, a hops shortage always kind of seems imminent.

Craft beer continues to boom (up 9.6% since last year), but still only accounts for 7% of total American beer sold according to the Technomic Trends in Adult Beverage 2014 State of the Industry Report (oh...you're not a subscriber?). Even more interesting, with all those IPAs and double IPAs and Belgian IPAs and black IPAs and white IPAs (etc., etc., etc.) flooding the marketplace, that 7% of American craft beer is currently using 52% of the overall domestic hops supply. With over 2500 currently-operating craft breweries and perhaps another 1500 breweries slated to open shortly in the U.S., a hops shortage would seem to be all but guaranteed in the very near future.

In fact, at January's American Hop Convention—what, you didn't attend?—a survey revealed hops consumption has been increasing steadily at a rate of about 13.5% per year. From 14.4 million pounds in 2012 to 16.4 million pounds in 2013 to an estimated consumption of 18.6 million pounds for 2014. As American hops farmers only have the capacity to handle ten to fifteen percent growth per year, this is a problem...especially with all those new breweries set to open just soon as their Kickstarters finally succeed.

What does this all mean? It's long meant that breweries need to snap up as many hops as they can possibly get their hands on. ASAP. Not hops for next week's batches, nor even next month's, but rather next year's batches. Or even hops for beers they might want to make in five years time, if they still even exist as a brewery by then.

Yes, if you didn't know, just like oil or coal, hops can be purchased in futures and, indeed, there are even hops exchanges. Some 90% of all breweries contract their hops well ahead of time, having to make predictions themselves on how much they will eventually need to use, and of what varieties, just to assure they will actually have hops when they need them most. This is obviously quite risky financially for breweries, especially considering hops farmers can't always deliver.

Hops are mainly produced in two key locations, the Bavarian German region of Hallertau and temperate valleys in the Pacific Northwest (mainly, Yakima Valley in Washington and Willamette Valley in Oregon). But, that doesn't mean they have to be grown there and, in fact, smaller hop farms are now rapidly springing up in locations all over the world, from New York to China, all trying their best to get even the smallest piece of this great thirst for humulus lupulus.

With such an increasing need, and no one quite sure how much will ever be available, it's no surprise there seems to be a hops shortage every few years. In 2007 and 2008, unusually inclement European weather produced a major deficiency. And, as recently as 2011 and 2012, minor shortages occurred after many farmers decided to switch from the more practical alpha acid hops to the more lucrative but tougher-to-yield aromatic hops that craft brewers love to use and beer geeks love to swig.

By this time next year, a catastrophic shortage might have finally occurred. There are just too many breweries desiring too many hops futures for the immediate future. As for you? Might be time to finally get a taste for cider or mead.

Aaron Goldfarb (@aarongoldfarb) is the author of and .

Aaron Goldfarb Aaron Goldfarb lives in Brooklyn and is a novelist and the author of 'Hacking Whiskey.'

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