Democrats have known that 2014 would be a challenging election cycle since November 2008, when, buoyed by an economic crisis that began under an unpopular Republican president, they managed to capture Senate seats in Republican strongholds like Alaska and North Carolina, and hang on to seats in conservative-trending states like Arkansas and Louisiana.

They knew those seats would be up for grabs again six years on, and that even the most optimistic assumptions—a growing economy, an unpopular opposition—wouldn’t lend Democratic incumbents as much propulsive force as President Obama’s candidacy had just provided them.

The Republican rout in 2010 brought the dangers Democrats would face in 2014 into stark relief. To avoid another midterm wipeout, they’d need to identify their marginally attached voters and make sure they didn’t stay home once again. The story’s been the same ever since. Just this week, Guy Cecil, the executive director of the Democrats’ Senate reelection committee told The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent, "Turnout is required but not sufficient. We must engage in trying to change the electorate."

To maintain control of the Senate, Democrats will need a lucky draw on election night. Not an impossible one, but not a probable one either. The likelihood that they'll miss has allowed the party’s critics to simplify the plot of the election, before the outcome is knowable. Since the plan hasn’t obviously worked, then it must have been a failure everywhere. National Journal’s conservative columnist Josh Kraushaar argues that “Obama is the main reason Republicans are well-positioned to win control of the upper chamber next Tuesday. And Democrats' biggest strategic mistake in this election is that most candidates didn't run away far and fast enough.”

As intuitive as it might seem, the Democrats’ unwillingness to maximize internal disarray doesn’t actually explain their electoral troubles. But it is nonetheless worth examining how well or poorly they’ve walked the fine line they’ve drawn for themselves. Obama’s unpopularity is a drag on Democrats, and there is an obvious tension between motivating midterm drop off voters and keeping Obama at arms length, which some Democrats have handled better than others.