MONTREAL — Scotland’s recent independence referendum undeniably struck a chord in Quebec but based on the first two polls to be published on the post-vote state of play it has not acted as a game changer on the political dynamics of the province.

CROP, whose poll was published last week in La Presse and Le Soleil, covered a period extending from the day before the September 18 Scottish vote to the end of the weekend that followed the No victory.

Léger Marketing was in the field for Le Devoir between September 22 and 27. By that time the focus of the Quebec coverage had shifted from the events unfolding in Scotland and the United Kingdom to their relevance to the province’s own existential debate.

Both pollsters found that the discussion had a positive impact on the standing of sovereignty with support for the option rising to 40 per cent. But that level of support falls well short of the kind of decisive momentum that would alter the terms of the Quebec political conversation.

Indeed, Léger found little evidence that the Scotland episode inspired a greater sense of urgency as to the need to return to the referendum hustings among most sovereigntist supporters.

Holding a referendum was not a priority for almost two-thirds of the respondents who had voted for the PQ last April. Fifty-three per cent of all respondents — regardless of party affiliation — stated that they were not interested in the sovereignty debate.

Yet it seems that putting its referendum plans temporarily on the back burner would do little for the PQ’s electoral fortunes, for Léger also reports that the party could lose ground if it took the promise of another vote on Quebec’s future out of its next election platform.

To make a confusingly fluid story short, the Parti Québécois is hostage to a single issue that does not, at this juncture, command the urgent attention of a majority of its own supporters or the interest of a majority of Quebecers but whose pursuit is essential if it is to hang onto its base.

As for the campaign to replace Pauline Marois, it so far follows the same script as that of the walk in the park that led Justin Trudeau to the top Liberal job a year and a half ago.

With the race about to get officially underway the question increasingly boils down to how many candidates will risk bruising their toes (and their egos) to take a kick at the tires of media tycoon Pierre Karl Péladeau.

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According to Léger Marketing he is the choice of 53 per cent of party supporters with every other unofficial contender garnering little more than single-digit support.

The group of also-rans includes former charter minister Bernard Drainville at 7 per cent and his brainy but apparently unloved colleague Jean-François Lisée at 2 per cent.

A federal election will take place long before Quebecers have a chance to revisit their April verdict on the PQ and its next leader in another provincial election and, on that front, CROP and Léger paint different pictures.

Both have the NDP in the lead among francophone voters but Léger reports a much tighter battle between the New Democrats and the Liberals.

The difference lies in the support that each pollster attributes to the Bloc Québécois. CROP has the BQ down to 13 per cent while Léger Marketing pegs its support at 21 per cent.

If anything, the two polls suggest that it is fortunate for Thomas Mulcair that Scotland did not hold its referendum in the middle of a federal election campaign, for the NDP is the party most likely to suffer from a polarization along the federalist/sovereigntist divide.

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The fate of the NDP in Quebec in the face of a recovering Liberal party in next year’s election is probably in the hands of a group of soft Bloc supporters more likely to abandon ship to vote for Mulcair in the absence of an imminent referendum.

Support for the Conservatives, for those still asking, remains in the low teens with the party out of the main action in Quebec.

Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

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