So unless something gives, or Labor somehow cobbles a win, the possibility of that most benign and modest of reforms will be kicked off into the next term. The political numbers mean Australia will continue to lag much of the western world. It will remain behind even Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia. Illustration: Jim Pavlidis Despite 70 per cent of Australians supporting marriage equality, according to last week's Fairfax Ipsos poll, and just 22 per cent against, it will not be passed. Despite many Australians just wanting it to be done with so we can stop talking about it, we will talk about it for years to come. Despite there now being three gay members in the House – and all of them Liberal – the election's big winners are those few who can't abide the gays being wed. The Senate results will not be finalised for weeks, but the analysis of the likely results broadcast on the ABC Insiders program makes the probable position clear enough. The Coalition will have 30 senators, Labor 27, The Greens will get nine, and the Nick Xenophon Team three. Rounding out the rest, Pauline Hanson will get two and there will be at least one each for Derryn Hinch, Fred Nile, Jacqui Lambie, and the Liberal Democrats. The final seat will likely be a companion for one of the last five.

Labor opposes the plebiscite. The Greens oppose the plebiscite. Nick Xenophon opposes the plebiscite, although he's hasn't committed to voting it down​. Many ifs and some buts, but that likely means 39 votes against a plebiscite in a Senate of 76. It won't matter that Hinch, who supports marriage equality, will back a plebiscite or that Hanson, who opposes equality, will too. On current numbers, the plebiscite is cooked. The delaying tactic dreamt up by Tony Abbott in a desperate bid to keep his job will mean that Australia will keep both its ban on same-sex couples getting married and the ridiculous compulsory government announcement at straight weddings that gay couples cannot join the club. Equality is not gone forever, but it's about to be put off for a few years yet. For marriage equality, a better result than Turnbull just scraping back would have been a strong win for Turnbull in the House, and a worse result for the left in the Senate. That would have led to an ugly plebiscite, but one which would have passed. Instead, the election looks like it's stymied it. The likely Senate is also dangerous for Australian politics well beyond marriage, with right-wing populism gaining a significant hold of the cross-benches. Hanson. Nile. Lambie. The Liberal Democrats. Even Hinch, who might be in favour of equality, but he's far to the right on law and order.

And while Labor did well in the House, some prominent and reasonable conservatives lost, those like Wyatt Roy in Longman. Turnbull supporters like Peter Hendy in Eden-Monaro have gone. The combination is a bad result for those who want their politics played in the centre. A returned Turnbull will have to play to the right to get legislation through. It is too soon to declare it, but it looks as though the Coalition's large loss of seats may end up hurting the politics of the middle, and helping those of the right. Labor didn't help with its effective Mediscare, other than its own immediate campaign. It bodes ill for the chances of repeating what had been, until then, a reasonable campaign based on parties backing their own policies without resorting to distorted reality. On election night, Turnbull declared Mediscare to be one of the most well-funded acts of political dishonesty, which is probably true, but the Coalition hardly comes to the table of political honesty with clean hands. Its own scare campaign against the emissions trading scheme tempers its ability to point to the Shorten kettle and call it black.

The worry for the next three years does not inevitably flow from the likelihood of a hung parliament. Such results do not have to deliver unstable governments. Britain managed perfectly well with a coalition between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. It wasn't until Britain returned to a majority administration last year that the Brexit die was cast, the greatest act of national self-harm in recent memory. New Zealand hasn't had a majority government since 1996, and since 2000 it's had two prime ministers to Australia's six. But the assault on Turnbull's power and the likely shift in the Senate will move Australian politics to the right, and marriage equality is just one of the probable casualties. Tim Dick is a Sydney lawyer. Twitter: dick_tim