If the result is replicated on Saturday, the Coalition would suffer a 10 per cent swing against it from the 2011 election but still retain government. The Coalition would lose 18 seats on the redistributed electoral boundaries, leaving it with 51 seats compared to Labor's 38 in the 93-seat Parliament. However, the wild card remains whether Labor can win Coalition-held seats with larger margins, particularly on the north coast. Labor is particularly bullish about Ballina, Lismore and Tweed due to a backlash against coal seam gas. Reachtel polling published by the Sun-Herald suggested Labor is set to win Ballina, despite it being held by the Nationals on a margin of 24.6 per cent.

The two-party-preferred result - using preferences nominated by respondents - is a 1 percentage point improvement for the Coalition and a 1 percentage point fall for Labor since February. The poll shows Labor's primary vote has fallen 2 percentage points to 32 per cent since the election campaign got under way in February, while the Coalition's has risen 1 percentage point to 47 per cent. Mr Baird leads Mr Foley as preferred premier by 56 to 27 per cent. This is a 2 point improvement for Mr Baird and a 3 point improvement for Mr Foley since February. The poll also reveals the issue of electricity privatisation remains deeply unpopular in the electorate, with just 31 per cent supporting the partial sale of the NSW electricity network businesses and 62 per cent against.

When asked their view on privatisation with the proceeds being used for infrastructure, voters remain evenly split, with support at 48 per cent and 47 per cent opposed. However, the poll shows economic management - usually perceived as a Coalition strength - is becoming more important to voters. Nineteen per cent of voters nominated it as their most important issue compared with 10 per cent in November. This elevated it from the third to the second most important issue to voters after health and hospitals at 24 per cent. Mr Baird highlighted the Coalition government's record on managing the economy during his campaign speech, noting that NSW now leads the nation on key economic indicators.

"Everywhere you look, you can feel the buzz of an economy that is on the move," Mr Baird told supporters at the City Recital Hall in central Sydney. The centrepiece announcement of the launch was a $678 million jobs package. Mr Baird said a re-elected Coalition government would extend the existing $5000 payroll tax rebate for companies for another four years and introduce a new incentive payment of $2000 for each employee a small business takes on. Mr Baird also promised to introduce $1000 scholarships for 25,000 TAFE students and to spend an extra $32 million to attract businesses from interstate and overseas to establish themselves in NSW.

He also announced $20 million to give an extra 45,000 children access to before- and after-school care at existing government and non-government schools and $32 million to expand nurse-led home visits for mothers with post natal depression. Mr Baird confirmed a re-elected Coalition government would begin the National Disability Insurance Scheme a year ahead of schedule. Children aged under 18 in the Penrith and Blue Mountains area would be included in the scheme this year as the federal government had agreed to bring forward funding. He also confirmed he would scrap the $37.70 co-payment for specialist drugs and that low income NSW households would be eligible for a $90 rebate on their gas bill by extending the existing rebate for electricity bills. Your seat by seat guide to the NSW election