For Narendra Modi, the contrast in perception about his leadership could not be as stark as it is now. Just seven months ago, the prime minister reigned supreme and was regarded as someone who could do no wrong. He had powered the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a stupendous win in the May 2019 general election, pulverising the opposition and becoming the first prime minister to secure back-to-back majorities in the Lok Sabha since Indira Gandhi in the 1967 and 1971 elections. Then, at the start of his second term, he set the audacious goal of doubling the size of the Indian economy to $5 trillion by 2024. In August, he decisively upturned the special status of Jammu and Kashmir by abrogating Article 370.

Seven months later, Modi, it seems, can do no right as he faces mounting criticism on several fronts. The prime minister's efforts to shore up the flailing economy aren't quite working, with the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates falling to a new low. Modi and the BJP have also started losing their aura of electoral invincibility in recent months, conceding power in the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections to a new opposition combine and forced to form a coalition government in Haryana-a state the BJP had ruled so far with a clear majority.

Meanwhile, protests continue across the country over the perceived communal bias in the way the Modi government rammed through with the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) to help six non-Muslim minorities in three neighbouring Muslim-majority countries gain Indian citizenship and expressed its intent to have a countrywide National Register of Citizens (NRC) to root out illegal immigrants. As worrying for the government is the growing concern in influential international circles over human rights violations in Kashmir, manifest in the prolonged lockdown of the Valley, the detention of top Kashmiri leaders and the internet blackout.

These unsettling developments have resulted in a winter of discontent for Modi and his government, as the results of the India Today-Karvy Insights biannual Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll reflect. Were a Lok Sabha election held today, the survey tells us, the handsome 303-seat majority the BJP won in May 2019 would be reduced to 271-one short of a simple majority on its own, and a loss of 34 seats in seven months.

For the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the survey predicts a loss of 50 seats owing to the departure of the Shiv Sena and the widespread citizen unrest, but it will still have a stable majority with 303 seats. What should also give Team Modi pause is the finding that were opposition parties such as the Sena, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Left to come together to form a new mahagathbandhan under the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), it would throw the political field wide open and the NDA's majority would be severely tested (see: The Recipe for Unrest).

If there is one silver lining for Modi, it is that his personal popularity is still a high 68 per cent, even if it's 3 percentage points less than the MOTN in August 2019. He remains the tallest leader in the country in popular perception, with a 40 percentage point gap between him and his nearest rival, Rahul Gandhi, in the prime ministerial stakes. Overall, however, the MOTN results are a clear warning to the prime minister that his honeymoon period with the electorate is over and that his government is beginning to lose its sheen.

What explains this disillusionment with the NDA government within seven months? The major reason is the growing perception that instead of concentrating on economic growth, creating much-needed jobs and alleviating farmers' distress, Modi has spent precious political capital and goodwill on issues paramount to the Hindutva agenda espoused by its mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), including the abrogation of Article 370, the CAA and NRC.

The Modi government could well argue that since these were listed in the BJP manifesto, the people had given them an overwhelming mandate to pursue them. The MOTN survey does endorse the Modi government's actions in Kashmir, with the scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir's special status under Article 370 listed as the single biggest achievement of the government this term, and 58 per cent deeming it a permanent solution to the Kashmir issue.

Yet, the MOTN responses throw up nuances that the Modi government would do well to heed. For instance, 50 per cent respondents believe the Modi government's decision to reduce the state to Union territories is a violation of the federal character of the Indian Constitution. This is something the Supreme Court, which is currently hearing a raft of petitions challenging the Modi government's actions in Kashmir, could take note of.

MOTN respondents also think the Modi government showed undue haste in pushing through the CAA in Parliament in December. In doing so, it failed to anticipate the extent of the agitation and resentment it would generate, both among the people and opposition parties. Some of its NDA partners too have opposed the BJP-led government's moves to impose an NRC. Internationally, too, India lost the goodwill it had worked so hard to build in recent years. Bangladesh, in particular, was peeved with the implication in the CAA that religious minorities in the country were persecuted and was concerned that Muslim refugees would become the prime targets of the proposed NRC process.

MOTN results also do not reveal blanket support for the government's actions on CAA-NRC. While 41 per cent approve of and 26 per cent oppose the CAA, 33 per cent say they have no clue about the Act or its impact. Clearly, the Modi government could have reduced the strife had it carried out a nationwide awareness campaign on the CAA before introducing it in Parliament. That is also true of the NRC-while 49 per cent approve of and 26 per cent oppose the measure, 25 per cent are clueless about its import. What should be even more cause for concern for the Modi government is that a majority of those who answered the poll believe that minorities, especially Muslims, would feel insecure were the CAA-NRC implemented.

That perception is further validated by other MOTN findings. When asked about their biggest concerns, as many as a third listed unemployment on top, followed by farmers' distress, inflation, corruption and the economic slowdown; terrorism figured much lower. A substantial majority believes the rising prices of food items indicate the economy is in bad shape. Responses to another question reveal that only 29 per cent believe the economy is doing well. As for the economic performance of the Modi government in the past five years, 41 per cent believe it is either the same or worse than the Congress-led UPA government's, hardly encouraging for a ruling dispensation that came to power in 2014 promising achhe din.

Two other findings should make Team Modi sit up and take notice. Farmers and youth-two segments that were widely supportive of Modi and the BJP-are beginning to voice their disillusionment. The number of people who believe that the condition of farmers has deteriorated or remained the same since the Modi government came to power in 2014 has overtaken the number of those who feel it has improved. Among the youth, a high 42 per cent believe the student unrest in universities across the country indicates the Modi government has lost the connect with youth it had in 2014.

So what are the big takeaways for Team Modi from the MOTN? What course corrections does it need to make? The CAA, NRC and the Kashmir issue have given the opposition, which had been flattened by the Modi blitzkrieg in the Lok Sabha election, an opportunity to regroup and stage a comeback. This has partially to do with the government's failure to consult or take into confidence opposition parties on major decisions, as Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to do when he was at the helm.

Instead of branding opposition parties as anti-national for opposing its actions, Team Modi needs to engage them in dialogue and see if it can address their valid concerns. It was hubris and arrogance that saw the BJP lose the Sena as an ally and which has now strained its relations with NDA partners like the Janata Dal (United) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) over the CAA-NRC.



As for the federal set-up, the BJP needs to remember that its presence is no longer as dominating as in the previous term. A series of losses in assembly elections has seen its territorial control whittle down to only 35 per cent. With many opposition-ruled states coming out in open defiance of implementing the CAA and even its own allies warning against initiating an NRC, the Modi government has to tread carefully on federal issues rather than have a no-holds-barred confrontation with dissenting states. If the ruling BJP persists with its current rigid stance, even its routine development programmes will be impacted as the government depends on states to implement them properly.

Team Modi should also take note of the fact that the MOTN indicates that a vast majority believe that the CAA-NRC are being pushed to deflect people's attention from the government's failures on the economic front. People are also concerned that it has unnecessarily raised the level of insecurity in the country, particularly among the Muslims and the poor, who will now have to desperately furnish documentation to prove their citizenship for inclusion in any proposed NRC.

Nor has the Modi government thought it fit to explain how the CAA-NRC will benefit the common man and what it will mean for the vast numbers who may be rendered illegal migrants in the process. The NRC outcome in Assam, in which over 1.9 million people were left out, inspires little confidence. As author Yuval Noah Harari observed, though in a different context, in his book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Mankind: "You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven."

The biggest message for Team Modi is to change course-instead of focusing on divisive issues, it needs to concentrate on ones that have maximum convergence: development, jobs, infrastructure and economic growth. It must understand that there are limits to pushing an agenda of nationalism and of a Hindu rashtra.

Especially when the history of Indian civilisation advocates plurality and a demonstrated ability to syncretise diverse cultural, religious and philosophical influences. Instead of reverting to insular and protectionist economic measures, India should be thinking global and working toward reaping the benefits of exports, foreign investment and global value chains. Encouragingly for Modi, despite the falling numbers in the MOTN, he is still regarded as the nation's best bet to pull it out of its economic woes. He must not fritter away that hope.

Finally, the prime minister and BJP have only to turn to the recent past to imbibe lessons for the present. In the past, when the BJP focused on the Hindutva agenda, such as the building of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, it could never breach the 200 mark in the Lok Sabha. But when it combined it with the promise of development, economic growth and clean governance, as Modi did in 2014 and 2019, the nation responded with strong mandates.

The astute leader that he is, Modi would do well to recall how Indira Gandhi allowed hubris to set in after her landslide victory in 1971 and turned authoritarian and intolerant after the economy went into a tailspin and dissent grew. He should learn from her mistakes. Luckily for Modi, the warnings have come in early in his second tenure, giving him enough time for course correction. For, as Niall Ferguson wrote in Civilisation: The West and the Rest, "No civilisation, no matter how mighty it may appear to itself, is indestructible." It holds good for political leaders and parties too.

METHODOLOGY

The India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Limited. A total of 12,141 interviews were conducted (67 per cent rural and 33 per cent urban, and an almost equal number of females and males), spread across 97 parliamentary constituencies in 194 assembly constituencies in 19 states-Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

In each of the assembly constituencies, different starting points were selected, covering all the five zones of an assembly constituency: north, south, east, west and the centre. A fixed number of interviews were conducted, rigorously following the right-hand rule of household selection.

(Photo credit: Vikram Sharma)

The fieldwork for the MOTN poll was conducted from December 21, 2019 to December 31, 2019. The survey followed random sampling. All interviews were conducted face-to-face using a standard structured interview questionnaire, which was translated into regional languages.

The poll was conducted under the supervision of Ranjit Chib, who is the chairman of Karvy Insights. He was assisted by Sachin Gupta and Debashish Chatterjee, both as sociate vice presidents at Karvy Insights.