I think most people now are trying to figure out how to play Ukrainian hard currency debt – it has come a huge distance in such a short space of time, which really does reflect the generosity of the deal announced last week for bondholders. Just to recap, bonds have rallied from 40 cents back in the spring when plans to “restructure” were first mooted, to 55 cents just before the deal announcement last week, and now to 75 cents. I don’t think that this is particularly a call on the Ukraine reform story, simply that this deal was much better than expected for bondholders

Bond valuations now put fair valuation in the 75-85 cents range, generally, with an exit yield of around 10 percent. As I argued upon the announcement of the deal, the value of the warrants is pretty binary at this stage – they are either worth very little, or an awful lot at some point in the future, and perhaps much more than even the most optimistic market assumption therein. I can even imagine a positive scenario where bondholders eventually get paid out “the full nine yards” well, not quite, but I would say they could get the 20 percent haircut back, and change.