In Ames, Iowa radio host Jeff Angelo tweeted that 178 people had turned out in a precinct expecting just 60. | Getty Surging GOP turnout shatters Iowa record Locals seeing high turnout at caucus sites.

Republican turnout in Monday's Iowa caucuses shattered all previous records — but it didn't do Donald Trump any good.

Party leaders and public and private polling all predicted that surging turnout and large numbers of first-time voters would boost the New York mogul. Instead, Ted Cruz rode the record turnout, which party officials estimated would reach 170,000 Republicans, carrying the caucuses by a few thousand votes. Marco Rubio also surged late, closing to a very close third behind Trump as the night wore on. Both Cruz and Rubio significantly outperformed pre-caucus polls, while Trump fell short of the narrow win he'd sought.


It's unclear by exactly how far past the 2012 record of 121,000 Republicans caucus turnout will go, but over 150,000 votes had been counted with 15 percent of precincts still out late Monday night. A final turnout of 170,000, the estimate insiders were making, would constitute a 41 percent spike from the previous caucuses.

The GOP campaigns themselves made wildly divergent predictions for turnout ranging from a low of 120,000 to highs above 140,000, but few predicted a scenario in which a surge above 140,000 votes benefited anybody but Trump. Trump's campaign itself had signaled that he hoped to turn out about 48,000 supporters, though he appeared poised to finish closer to 40,000.

Trump's letdown is likely to fuel speculation that attendees of his massive rallies aren't committed enough to support him at the polls.

Anecdotal reports throughout Iowa hinted at the surging turnout early Monday evening, with participants describing overcrowded rooms and long lines to vote.

Republican caucus turnout in Polk County, the most populous one in Iowa, had already surpassed 2012 levels by the time just 80 percent of precincts had reported.

"Final crowd at #ankeny13. Stunning, over 50% increase from 2012," tweeted Matt Strawn, a former state GOP chairman.

Des Moines Register reporter Jeff Charis-Carlson described caucus sites in Iowa City jammed with potential voters, who spilled into hallways and forced election officials to make creative plans to allow all participants to hear the proceedings. At one site at the Iowa City Public Library, organizers used the library's PA system to speak to voters crammed into the location, he reported.

"645 people crammed into @ICPL for #IC20 caucus," he said on Twitter. "People in the hall can't hear the party business."

In Ames, radio host Jeff Angelo tweeted that 178 people had turned out in a precinct expecting just 60.

Polling in the days leading up to the caucuses suggested high turnout would help both Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, whose coalitions are full of new participants in the caucus process.