There's a saying in politics that goes: "Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them," and it seems particularly apt when applied to the current version of the Liberal party of Canada. Last weekend, the Liberals hosted a "non-partisan" forum called Canada at 150: Rising to the challenge, designed to address goals for Canada to meet by its 150th birthday in 2017. Unfortunately for them, the most interesting speaker, diplomat Robert Fowler, was hardly very kind to his hosts.

In fact, Fowler was rather harsh – and at times, rightly so. The special UN envoy to Niger (who was kidnapped in the summer of 2008 by the Islamic Maghreb, an organisation linked to al-Qaida, and released almost a year later) took the Liberals to task, stating that the party has not only "lost its way", but also "lost its soul". And as much as some of Fowler's speech might have been contentious, his attack on the state of the Liberal party couldn't have been more cogent.

Fowler itemised his discontent, calling the Liberals out on what he felt was a seemingly rudderless attempt at taking control in Ottawa by being willing to "endorse anything and everything which might return them to power and nothing which won't – whatever the merits of either".

The criticism couldn't have come at a more uncomfortable time for the Liberals. In the week leading up to the Canada at 150 conference, the Liberals tried to smoke out the Conservative government's stance on abortion, asking it to allow "a full range of reproductive services" for mothers in the developing world within its upcoming maternal health proposal to the G8. The motion failed miserably, thanks mostly to the 13 Liberal MPs who didn't show up to vote. The debacle fell directly on the shoulders of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, suggesting that he has no clear idea of the makeup of his own party.

But Ignatieff's endlessly frustrating run as leader of the Liberal party is only part of the overall scrambling feeling that has started to emanate from Canada's "natural governing party". Since they became the official opposition in 2006, the Liberals have made their way through two party leaders and watched their coveted centrist ground be taken over by a savvy Conservative marketing machine. Now Ignatieff has managed to grind the party into a point of perpetual stasis, despite presiding over two contentious prorogations by the prime minister, Stephen Harper, a deepening crisis over possible Afghan detainee torture, and a federal environmental policy that has been widely criticised by many in the international community.

The fact that the Conservatives also can't seem to be able to pull away in the polls is arguably equally frustrating to the Liberals, as it suggests that they would stand a chance if there were to be an election.

Though tantalising, that assumption might be incorrect. If an election were to be called, the Liberals, lacking an equally assertive, finely tuned, practised contrary talking point machine to that of the Tories, would quickly find themselves out of step in a critical first campaign week. What they can't seem to develop, and what Fowler alluded to is a recognisable character. For all the Conservative government's faults, they are a party with a palpable message. Right now the only message coming from the Liberal camp is disorganisation.

This doesn't mean that all is lost for the Liberals. Their proximity in the polls, and Harper's minority government are both telling: Canadians aren't entirely sold on the Tories. In his speech, Fowler suggested that the Liberal party return to its roots, founded on principles of social conscience. In that, he was absolutely correct. More importantly, as Ignatieff awkwardly showcased last week, the Liberals will not find success in simple political posturing designed to wrong-foot the government, but on the actual desires of Canadians. They must focus on regaining the centrist ground that they have allowed the Tories to nominally occupy, lest it disappear forever. To do that, they need less grand scheming in favour of smaller ideas built around sensible programmes that speak to a party meta-narrative – something they currently lack. Political policy ideas, great though they may be, are useless without a concrete context or party ideology into which they can fit. In the end, it's simple: rather than trying to win, the Liberals must force the Tories to lose.