Author’s note: this post was updated to reflect changes caused by trades (Ozuna, Piscotty, etc.)

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH (stats-only) statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Last Year’s Cardinals List

60 FV Prospects

As the baseball calendar turned over to 2017, Alex Reyes was arguably the best pitching prospect in the game and set to be the brightest young star on a likely playoff contender. Instead, he would need Tommy John before all of his teammates had even arrived for spring training. It was a disappointing twist in an already eventful, young career.

Reyes was born and attended high school in Elizabeth, New Jersey, before re-classifying as an international amateur late in 2011. He moved to the Dominican Republic, where he lived with grandparents, had a growth spurt, and started throwing harder. His fastball velocity climbed from the upper 80s into the 91-94 range during that time. He signed with St. Louis as an 18-year-old in December of 2012 for $950,000, the slot value of the 53rd overall pick in that year’s draft.

In four pro seasons, Reyes has successfully dealt with multiple setbacks and quickly navigated the upper levels of the minors despite little playing time there. He had a shoulder issue in 2015 that sent him to the disabled list, and he missed time later that season due to a marijuana suspension which straddled the 2015 Arizona Fall League and 2016 regular season. Despite that, Reyes reached the majors in 2016 and looked great, accumulating 1.4 WAR in 46 innings of work split between the bullpen and rotation. He did so largely with a fastball/changeup combination, his fastball cresting triple digits out of the bullpen while sitting 94-97 as a starter.

Reyes’s curveball was dominant early in 2016 and became less effective late in the year as he reincorporated a slider (an upper-80s cutter hybrid that was shelved early in 2016 and reemerged late in 2016 as a fringey, mid-80s slide piece) into his repertoire. It’s possible Reyes’s mix of pitches will look a bit different after rehab, but scouts thought he had a chance for a plus-plus fastball, curveball, and plus changeup at peak. It’s top-of-the-rotation stuff assuming Reyes eventually harnesses the incredible arm speed that allows for such viciousness. Most scouts think he’s athletic enough to figure it out.

There’s some risk associated with return from Tommy John, but the rate of recovery is about 80% and better for younger arms. Reyes has improved his physical conditioning during rehab, begun throwing bullpen sessions, and will continue offseason work in Jupiter, FL, at the team complex in preparation for 2018. The approximately 14-month timetable for modern TJ recovery puts him on pace to return early in the 2018 season, though that might be in the bullpen initially as a way to limit Reyes’s innings in his first season back. He has a front-end ceiling if his stuff comes back and his command improves, same as he did last year, with risk of non-recovery diluting his FV this offseason.

KATOH projection for first six years: 6.5 WAR

50 FV Prospects

The brawny O’Neill was acquired from Seattle mid-season for oft-injured changeup specialist Marco Gonzales. O’Neill’s career-long issue with strikeouts persisted in Tacoma and changes were made to his swing after he was traded to St. Louis. Scouts have long maligned O’Neill’s poor hitter’s timing, which causes him to be late on hittable pitches and make poor contact in the form of pop ups and grounders squibbed off the end of his bat. After the trade, O’Neill closed off his stance and began loading his hands lower – down at chest level instead of up near his ear – improving the consistency of his swing’s angle. His infield-fly rate was cut in half after he arrived in Memphis.

While his considerable bulk contributes to the stiffness that causes O’Neill to be strikeout prone, it’s also the driving force behind the plus-plus, all-fields raw power into which O’Neill has been able to tap, despite his contact issues, throughout his career. He’s also an above-average straight-line runner with an above-average arm, and while he’s not an especially instinctive defender, he’s also not a liability.

Right fielders hit .256/.332/.443 in 2017. Many still consider O’Neill’s bat to be a bit more volatile and worrisome than is typical for an upper-level hitter who has had flawed but sustained success for multiple seasons. Barring a complete inability to contact major-league pitching, O’Neill’s combination of power and patience — he’s recorded a career .243 ISO and 9% walk rate — should enable him to clear that bar. He projects as an average regular.

KATOH projection for first six years: 7.1 WAR

A fluid righty with a prototypical 6-foot-4 frame, Flaherty reached the majors in 2017, just his third full pro season. His dominant 10-start run at Double-A – during which Flaherty walked just 4.6% of the hitters he faced – garnered him a quick, June promotion to Memphis. There, his walk rate regressed to 7%, his career rate, but he maintained a 2.74 ERA in 15 starts. He was called up in September and struggled with fastball command.

Flaherty’s fastball ranges 90 to 95mph, sitting mostly 92-94 with enough sink to mitigate its lack of downhill plane. He has a strong lower half and stays balanced on his landing leg as he finishes an efficient delivery. Flaherty will pitch with above-average fastball command at times and projects to locate consistently at peak, despite his erratic cup of coffee.

To put hitters away, Flaherty relies on a slider and curveball while occasionally mixing in a changeup. His curveball has a bit more depth and vertical action to it than the slider does and it’s his best secondary pitch on pure stuff, but Flaherty’s terrific arm-side command of his slider makes that his most effective. He has shown an ability to locate both breaking balls in the zone for early-count strikes.

Look for Flaherty to utilize that arm-side breaking-ball command to work left-handed hitters to their back foot. His fringey, sinking, upper-80s changeup induces ground balls but doesn’t miss bats right now, and well-located breaking balls are his best chance of whiffing lefties. He projects as a No. 3/4 starter.

KATOH projection for first six years: 8.3 WAR

Big-league catchers hit a combined .245/.315/.406 in 2017, averaging just 89 wRC+. Despite lackluster physical tools, Kelly should be able to clear that bar, based largely on his superlative hand-eye coordination and a sound approach, all complemented by excellent defense.

Kelly tracks pitches well and can move his barrel around the hitting zone. His swing has a bit of length but is otherwise simple and compact, allowing Kelly to make high rates of contact. That contact is usually not very strong, often on the ground and to Kelly’s pull side, which, especially when coupled with 20-grade speed, will likely dilute the way his bat plays on paper. I have it projected to a 50.

Kelly has average raw power but drives the ball into the ground too often to actualize it in games. He’ll likely max out with 40 game power.

Where Kelly begins to separate himself from most catching prospects is with his glove. He was drafted as a third baseman in 2012, then moved behind the plate in 2014 and picked up the finer points of catching rather quickly. He’s a good receiver, stealing strikes on the edges of the zone and just beneath it. He’s also more agile than his square, cinder-block frame suggests, and he effectively smothers errant, dirt-bound pitches. Kelly’s arm is average.

Yadier Molina is under contract with St. Louis through the 2020 season. Kelly’s skills should allow for a liberal time share until he transitions into the full-time gig, which, in the meantime, might help make Molina healthier and more effective when he plays. Kelly projects as an average regular who also tirelessly goes about executing the extra responsibilities associated with catching.

KATOH projection for first six years: 6.4 WAR

Garcia, who won the Serie Nacional MVP for the 2015-2016 season, left Cuba late in the summer of 2016 and signed with St. Louis the following February for $2.5 million. He was old enough and had accrued enough playing time in pro baseball to be exempt from international bonus pools. International scouts were hung up on Garcia’s approach, which was ultra-aggressive in Cuba, or didn’t think he’d hit for corner-worthy power, and most viewed him as a fourth-outfield prospect. His work visa cleared in March and he hit the ground running with Double-A Springfield less than a month later, slashing .285/.339/.476 in 84 games there before promotion. He had continued success at Triple-A, hitting .301/.342/.478 there.

Garcia is a plus runner with a plus-plus arm, but his speed plays down in the field (and on the bases) due to poor instincts. He fits best in right field, where his range alone could make him a defensive asset despite his issues.

Offensively, Garcia does a lot of extra-base damage due to his effective combination of power and speed. His footwork in the box is very conservative. He drives the ball from gap to gap largely because of the strength and whip in his wrists. He tracks breaking balls well and can move the bat head around the zone. Garcia had 51 extra-base hits in 2017 and projects as an average hitter with average game power.

Garcia turned 24 in March, a bit old for someone who spent most of the year at Double-A, and his aggressive style of hitting still gives some evaluators pause about his future role. But he has big-league hitting ability, game-changing arm strength, and enough speed to make up for what he lacks in baseball feel. I have him projected as an average everyday player.

KATOH projection for first six years: 1.1 WAR

45 FV Prospects

Age 23 Height 6’1 Weight 165 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 55/55 45/50 55/50 45/50 70/70

The ultra-versatile Munoz was acquired from Oakland along with Max Schrock in exchange for Stephen Piscotty. He has multi-year experience at shortstop, second base, and third base and also began seeing time in all three outfield positions last year. His listed weight is a joke, as Munoz is much closer to 220 than he is 165 and, though his incredible arm strength helps hide it, he lacks prototypical lateral range for shortstop, but he’s now in an organization that has a history of ignoring this deficiency.

Munoz has long been a very aggressive, line-drive hitter whose big bat speed and raw power played down in games due to a ground-ball bat path. In 2017, Munoz got comfortable with a new stride and slightly lower load and impacted his launch angle pretty significantly. His offensive profile has improved, and he now profiles as a slugging super utility man with low OBPs.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2016 from NC State Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/55 50/50 30/45 30/30 45/50 45/45

Knizner was originally a third baseman at North Carolina State but moved to catcher after the talented but enigmatic Brett Austin moved on to pro ball. Knizner was heavy-bodied and immobile in college, but his catching has drastically improved and he now projects as a viable defensive catcher. His receiving is fine, his ball-blocking is improving, and he has fringe average arm strength, popping in the 1.98 to 2.05 range here in Arizona.

Offensively, Knizner has good hand-eye coordination and the ability to punch pitches away from him to the opposite field. His bat is exceptionally quick and Knizner can turn on fastballs up and in and drive them into the left-center gap or over the wall. His approach is aggressive and will likely limit his ability to reach base, but there’s above-average bat-to-ball ability and opportunistic power here that’s very intriguing for even a fringe defensive catcher.

Knizner began working at first base more frequently in the Fall League. He has much more offensive potential than Carson Kelly does, but scouts still mostly prefer Kelly because of what he does defensively. I think he’s is a potential everyday player who might need a trade to have an opportunity to prove it.

KATOH projection for first six years: 3.9 WAR

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Florida Age 23 Height 6’0 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/45 50/50 40/45 60/60 45/50 55/55

Bader made his MLB debut in 2017, just his second full pro season, and posted big power/speed numbers at Triple-A that have fantasy players salivating. He hit .283/.347/.469 at Memphis with 20 homers and 15 steals in just 123 games. He did so with a .345 BABIP and pull-heavy approach to contact that might earn him a shift in the big leagues.

Bader has big-league tools. He’s a plus-plus runner from home to first, and that speed allows him to play center field competently. He has above-average bat speed and is able to turn on good velocity on the inner half, generating reliable power to his pull side.

But he also has holes. Bader’s poor plate coverage leaves him vulnerable to breaking balls away and he often swings over the top of takeable sliders. His aggressiveness may compound this issue and inflate his strikeout rate, which has grown as he’s moved through the minors. Once we factor in what could happen to Bader’s offensive output due to MLB defensive positioning and pitcher adjustment/exploitation, his offensive future starts looking quite medium, even in center field. Barring mechanical adjustment or better breaking-ball recognition, I think he projects as a platoon option in center more than an average regular.

KATOH projection for first six years: 5.1 WAR

Drafted: 7th rd 2013, Santa Monica HS (CA) Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 70/70 50/55 40/50 30/40

Greene is coming off a maddening statistical season at Double-A New Hampshire, where he accumulated a 5.29 ERA in 132.2 innings. He experienced some success till the beginning of summer, entering July with a 3.23 ERA despite erratic command, but started getting shelled as the season continued. Greene has a plus-plus fastball that sits 94-97 and will touch 99. The pitch has heavy sink and arm-side movement, as well as notable downhill angle to the plate — a result, that, of Greene’s size, relatively upright delivery, and high three-quarters arm slot. It’s Greene’s best pitch and he uses it heavily, perhaps too frequently, as his strikeout totals are not commensurate with his quality of stuff.

The curveball (which was bad last fall) has taken a huge step forward and is now Greene’s best secondary pitch. It has traditional power curveball shape, bite, and depth. It projects to a 55 on the scouting scale. Greene’s changeup is inconsistent and a bit easy to identify out of his hand, as Greene is prone to drop his arm slot when he throws it. Due to his loose, fluid arm action and incredible arm speed, though, some scouts project quite heavily on the changeup. It pretty conservatively projects to average and has more upside than that. There’s a chance Greene develops two above-average secondaries to pair with his plus-plus fastball, but no measure of his ability to miss bats indicates anything remotely close to that.

Greene struggles to repeat his release point and has 30-grade control. He walked 13% of hitters he faced in 2017 and 83 total hitters in his 132.2 innings. Unless Greene’s ability to locate greatly improves, he’ll wind up in the bullpen. It makes sense to continue developing him as a starter on the off chance that he develops 45 or better command and simply as a way to get him more reps than he’d get out of the bullpen, but the Cardinals were quick to move Sandy Alcantara to the bullpen last year and seemed inclined to keep him there. They’re thought, by other clubs, to be considering pulling the bullpen ripcord on either or both of Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley. Greene would seem to fall into that bucket of still-raw, upper-level arms. He has a chance to pitch as a mid-rotation starter if the command comes, but he’s more likely to be a hard-throwing, above-average bullpen arm.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Northeastern St Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command 60/70 45/50 40/50 30/40

After 17 strong appearances at High-A, Helsley was promoted to Double-A, where his stuff continued to dominate. His fastball will creep into the upper 90s and has bat-missing life both in the strike zone and up above it. He sits 94-97 and showed glimpses of commanding it until late in the year when his control evaporated. Scouts who saw Helsley struggle to command his fastball think there’s a chance he ends up in the bullpen. Others saw not only competent fastball command but also feel for locating his cutter and curveball down and to his glove side. Both were particularly effective against left-handed hitters when thrown there and have at least average projection. The breaking ball flashes above.

Helsley’s changeup is below average and his long arm action doesn’t portend much development in that area, but he may have the ingredients to deal with lefties in his cutter and breaking ball already, so a better change may not be necessary for him to start. He’s strong and repeats his delivery pretty well and may have only struggled to throw strikes down the stretch due to fatigue, as Helsley was in the middle of throwing nearly 40% more innings than he did the year before. He has mid-rotation stuff, and while there’s certainly relief risk here, I’m not ready to call it a likelihood.

KATOH projection for first six years: 1.8 WAR

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Cypress Creek HS (TX) Age 20 Height 6’2 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command 60/70 45/50 40/50 30/40

Hicks’ first taste of full-season ball went as just one might expect for a relatively untamed but immensely talented right arm. He sprinkled several dominant starts and a few duds in amongst 14 unassuming Low-A appearances. He was promoted to High-A Palm Beach in July and pitched 27 innings there, some in relief, before being shut down until the Arizona Fall League.

In Arizona, Hicks’ fastball was a caricature of its mid-summer iteration. While routinely sitting 94 or better during the regular season, Hicks’ heater sat 97-100 in the Fall League. It was hit hard in the AFL as Hicks had trouble keeping it down, where its sink is most effective. It very obviously doesn’t play like an 80-grade fastball despite its velocity, but even as velocities across baseball are spiking, arm strength like this is rare.

Hicks’ secondary offerings – a slurvy, mid-80s breaking ball and a changeup — are inconsistent, but both show signs of competency. The breaking ball has effective shape but isn’t always tight. When it is, it’s above average. Hicks’ changeup is firm but has some wiggle, and it was effective in the AFL against hitters who were cheating to try to catch his fastball. If he ever gets comfortable throwing it in fastball counts, I think it will be effective.

Some scouts think Hicks lacks starter’s command and that his future lies in the bullpen. He owns a 10% career walk rate. If one/none of Hicks’ secondary pitches develop, that would be his likely destination, anyway. There’s big ceiling here if everything comes together, but most of them need to if Hicks is going to start. And while Hicks has shown flashes of it happening, I think odds are he ends up in the bullpen, but I bet his stuff will allow him to pitch in the back of one.

KATOH projection for first six years: 0.6 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Panama Age 21 Height 5’11 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/50 40/45 20/30 50/50 50/55 50/50

A smooth defender with excellent feet and actions, Sosa does enough to stay at shortstop despite mediocre range and arm strength. St. Louis has been one of the clubs most willing to put up with fringe defenders at short (Aledmys Diaz, Jedd Gyorko, Paul DeJong, and Jhonny Peralta, to name a recent few), and Sosa is better than what Cardinals fans have typically seen there in recent years. He smothers everything he gets to and quickly sends the ball to its ultimate destination, projecting as an above-average defensive shortstop with an average arm.

St. Louis has likely made some defensive concessions at shortstop in order to get more potent bats in the lineup, hiding whatever deficiencies they can with batted-ball data and making up for it with more thump than is typical for short. Sosa isn’t that kind of player. He has some bat-to-ball ability but lacks any modicum of game power. (He suffered and returned from a broken hamate in 2017, an injury known for sapping pop, but Sosa has never hit for power.) He may not hit enough to be an everyday player, even at shortstop. Some scouts think he’ll have an above-average hit tool, citing improved bat control over the last two seasons, but don’t think the overall package screams “everyday shortstop.”

Sosa has begun branching out defensively in the Arizona Fall League, seeing time at second and third as well as shortstop. He projects as a luxury utility infielder or someone’s low-end everyday shortstop.

KATOH projection for first six years: 0.6 WAR

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mississippi St. Age 22 Height 6’5 Weight 215 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Cutter Changeup Command 55/55 45/50 45/50 40/45 40/45

Hudson had one of the 2016 draft’s deeper, nastier repertoires among college pitchers but fell to the back of the first round due to concerns about his delivery and health. Though Hudson’s stuff wasn’t always sharp and he sometimes struggled with command, he reached Triple-A in his first full season. Hudson’s strikeout rate at Springfield was 16%; in seven starts at Memphis, it was a paltry 11.8%. Only six qualified big-league starters had strikeout rates beneath 16% in 2017, and Zach Davies had the lowest xFIP among them, at 4.42.

When Hudson was missing bats in 2017 it was with his breaking ball. It’s a low-80s breaker to which some refer as a slider, but functionally it’s a curveball with 2-to-7 movement. Hudson used it to put away most hitters in his strikeout-heavy starts, but it was a below-average pitch late in the year.

Everything else Hudson throws is hard. He has a four-seamer and sinker that blend together in the 92-97 mph range, a short little fringey cutter just beneath them. His changeup is below average.

Hudson induces a lot of grounders. He generated a 57% ground-ball rate in 2017. MLB average is roughly 45%. It’s a necessary trait for pitchers who strikeout as few hitter as Hudson did in 2017, and even big-league models (Mike Leake, late-career Yovani Gallardo, etc) are all back-end starters. Thus, I have Hudson projected as a No. 4/5 starter. If his curveball becomes more consistent and enables him to avoid contact, his ceiling is a notch above that, but it’s also possible that he moves to the bullpen at some point if St. Louis thinks they have better rotation options.

KATOH projection for first six years: 3.0 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republlic Age 20 Height 6’1 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command 55/60 40/45 60/70 40/50

He arrived at spring training still just 19, but Fernandez was assigned to High-A Palm Beach, where he had struggled down the stretch the previous season. His arm speed and fastball velocity weren’t as electric as they were last year. Fernandez’s heater sat 91-94, at times dropped into the 80s — he was 94-96 in 2016 and 93-97 during 2017 spring training — and he struggled to miss bats and, as he approached injury, to throw strikes. He was shut down in late July with arm soreness and didn’t pitch again during the season.

The injury adds to what some scouts already considered to be significant relief risk associated with Fernandez’s profile. He’s small — a short-limbed 6-foot-1 — and lacks repertoire depth. Scouts love Fernandez’s changeup, which projects to plus, but are skeptical of his fringe, mid-80s slider.

Fernandez’s strike-throwing issues really only popped up in his later starts, as he neared injury, and he’s otherwise a promising young strike-thrower. Assuming he returns healthy, he has all the ingredients to start despite his size. His ceiling, not his role, is what might be hampered by Fernandez’s lack of a dominant breaking ball. But Fernandez has also failed to put a satisfying bow on either of the last two seasons and had his career’s first two DL stints in ’17. He still has mid-rotation potential but is undoubtedly a riskier prospect than he was last offseason.

KATOH projection for first six years: 0.4 WAR

Signed: 13th rd 2015 from South Carolina Age 23 Height 5’8 Weight 180 Bat/Throw L/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 40/40 20/30 50/50 50/50 40/40

Schrock is a superlative, but very specific, statistical performer. He owns a remarkable 8% career strikeout rate thanks to his quick, simple swing, bat control, and hand-eye coordination. He has very little power and his BABIPs have run hot for his whole career. The average second baseman posted a 94 wRC+ in 2017, so there’s a chance Schrock gets to that, but when you normalize his BABIP, he falls short because he lacks power. His bat would play in a utility role, but Schrock hasn’t played anywhere but second base as a pro. He either needs to hit enough to play every day or start branching out, defensively.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Florida Atlantic Age 23 Height 6’5 Weight 235 Bat/Throw L/L Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 45/45 50/55 45/50 45/50

Gomber had a strong finish at Double-A, allowing just six runs combined in six August starts and striking out more than a batter per inning during that span. Long considered a soft-tossing pitchability lefty, Gomber’s command backed up a bit in 2017, but his fastball ticked higher as the year went on — it’s now more comfortably in the low 90s than upper 80s — and it plays up due to deception, with the ball suddenly appearing out from behind his head, much as it does for Yankees LHP Jordan Montgomery.

Gomber keeps the ball down, will challenge righties inside with his fastball, can locate his curveball in the zone, and mixes in a viable changeup. He was either varying his breaking-ball shape or mixing in a slider in 2017, something that may have impacted the effectiveness of a curveball (this seems to be an org-wide theme) that now draws more mixed reviews. At its best, though, the curve is an above-average pitch. The changeup is fringey but arguably plays up due to deception.

There are stable back-end starter ingredients here. Scouts aren’t enamored of Gomber’s build or athleticism and his stuff is just okay. But he can pitch and has had success against good hitters in the Arizona Fall League and at Double-A. He profiles as a No. 4/5 starter.

KATOH projection for first six years: 2.0 WAR

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2013 from Gaither HS (FL) Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/45 45/45 30/40 60/60 50/55 50/50

It was a breakout year for Mercado, who hadn’t posted an OBP over .300 since 2014. He slashed .287/.341/.428 at Double-A Springfield and was assigned to the Arizona Fall League at season’s end.

Mercado was a potential first-round high-school shortstop who fell to the second round due to concerns about his on-field awareness and effort level. He got an over-slot $1.5 million from St. Louis, which kept him from a commitment to Florida State. He began transitioning to the outfield in 2016 with High-A Palm Beach. He hit .215/.296/.271 that year.

Mercado has embraced his modest, but viable, pull-side pop and his approach is largely geared for contact in that direction. This narrow approach caused his strikeout rate (a career 13% entering the season) to spike, but Mercado is making loud contact for the first time in his career. He’s also a plus runner who’s continuously improving in center field and could be above average there. Upper-level pitching may adjust to Mercado’s new approach, and most scouts would like to see him do this again next year before diving all-in on Mercado’s future. That said, his defensive ability and speed makes it likely that he plays some sort of big-league role eventually, likely as a fourth outfielder.

KATOH projection for first six years: 2.6 WAR

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba Age 22 Height 5’11 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 45/45 30/40 55/55 50/55 55/55

After two-and-a-half months of hitting for surprising power at High-A, Arozarena was promoted to Double-A, where he reached base at a .366 clip in 51 games. He’s an aggressive swinger, often ambushing early-count fastballs, with good plate coverage despite a strong proclivity for pull-side contact. Double-A pitchers quickly learned that Arozarena likes to turn on everything he can and stayed away from him as a result. His power output was limited while he was with Springfield.

Arozarena’s combination of bat speed and hand-eye coordination should enable him to be an above-average hitter. He’s an above-average runner but not an especially instinctive one, nor are his outfield jumps especially prescient. He’s limited to the outfield corners and may not hit for enough power to profile as an everyday corner bat once big-league pitchers learn to stay away from him. But the speed and bat-to-ball skills are both of clear big-league quality and should enable Arozarena to earn a stable bench role as a pinch-hitter, runner, and rangier late-inning option in left field.

KATOH projection for first six years: 1.1 WAR