Carter announced his candidacy last Thursday. Ga. poll: Carter in striking distance

Georgia Democrat Jason Carter has a path to unseating Republican Gov. Nathan Deal if he emphasizes a pro-business, fiscally conservative agenda and plays up his prominent political ancestry, according to a private Democratic poll taken last month.

A state legislator and the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, Jason Carter starts out in the survey within single digits of Deal, drawing 36 percent of the vote to Deal’s 44 percent. After the pollster read a positive message about both candidates, Carter moved ahead with 45 percent to Deal’s 40 percent.


POLITICO obtained a copy of the survey, which was commissioned by the Georgia Democratic Party and the Democratic Governors Association to help recruit Carter into the 2014 gubernatorial race. It was conducted by the Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research, testing 600 likely Georgia voters between Oct. 14 and Oct. 20.

( Also on POLITICO: 10 things to know about Jason Carter)

The poll found that the governor maintains a solid favorability rating — 49 percent positive, 31 percent negative — but by a 13-point margin, voters say they would rather vote for “someone new” than to reelect him.

And Deal was viewed more negatively than positively by voters on a list of issues including jobs and the economy, education, taxes and “helping the middle class.” He broke essentially even on budget issues, with 39 percent giving him positive marks and 42 percent giving him negative marks.

“Positive communication can dramatically shift the race in Carter’s favor,” the pollsters argue in a memo, adding: “Deal’s vulnerability against Jason Carter is driven by weak popularity and job ratings.”

The poll made no effort to disguise the dynastic nature of Carter’s budding campaign. The positive message tested about Carter identified him as a “Democratic state senator from Decatur and the grandson of President Jimmy Carter,” mentioned his support for the “Hope scholarship for middle income families” and said Carter’s top goal “will be ensuring the Georgia economy works for middle class families and small businesses and that investment in public education is protected.”

( Earlier on POLITICO: Jason Carter to run for Georgia governor)

The message about Deal referred to his service in the U.S. Army and as a congressman, said his main goal is “making Georgia the number one place in the nation to do business” and noted that he has cut taxes, reduced the size of the state payroll and “is running for reelection to continue his principled, conservative leadership.”

It remains to be seen whether those are precisely the messages that Carter and Deal will deliver. But the goal of the poll was to show Carter that he could be competitive against a sitting governor in a solidly Republican-leaning state; given his entry into the race last week, it seems to have worked.

Deal adviser Brian Robinson shrugged off the partisan survey, pointing out that Democrats have a floor of support in Georgia and that even President Barack Obama won 45 percent of the vote without seriously competing there in 2012.

PHOTOS: Jimmy Carter in Haiti, 2012)

“Obama’s probably the high-watermark,” Robinson said. “I’m not putting too much stock in a DGA poll that tells the voters how great Jason Carter is — ‘and hey, would you consider him?’”

Robinson predicted that when the race is fully engaged and focused on issues, the governor would have an “innate advantage with Georgia’s conservative electorate.”

“But,” he added, “we expect a fight and we’ve prepared for a fight all along.”

Carter announced his campaign on Thursday and has some catching up to do on the fundraising front: Deal reported in July that he had $1.1 million in the bank and already has reserved nearly $280,000 in TV time through the middle of January.

The margin of error in the Democratic poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.