With B.C.'s photo finish election still under review, a new statistical analysis might provide some solace — or not.

To recap: the numbers currently stand at 43 seats for the Liberals, 41 seats for the NDP and 3 seats for the Greens. A majority government requires 44 seats.

There are still 176,000 absentee ballots being counted and recounts requested in multiple close ridings.

All eyes are fixed on the Vancouver Island riding of Courtenay-Comox where a mere nine votes separate the NDP and Liberal candidates.

Kevin Milligan, a professor of economics at the University of British Columbia, conducted his own statistical analysis on the possible outcomes remaining in the election.

He says his analysis shows there's a one in four chance the current 43-41-3 configuration could change.

"There's a fairly decent chance the legislature might have a different makeup than what we just saw on election night."

How he did it

First, Milligan figured out how big a boost the parties usually get from absentee ballots.

"I went back to 2013 and looked at the 2013 election, where I looked at how big those absentee ballot boosts are," he said.

In some cases, when the races are exceptionally close, this boost can be big enough to flip the seat to the other party, he explained.

"I then applied those absentee ballot boosts to the 2017 election results and simulated it a million times to see how often those seats flipped.

"It turns out in one in four cases, we move off the results we saw from election night."

(Kevin Milligan/UBC School of Economics)

Specifically, his results show there is a 2.4 per cent chance of the B.C. Liberals taking 45 seats, a 9.4 per cent chance of the B.C. Liberals taking 44 seats, a 78.8 per cent of the results remaining 43 seats for the Liberals and 41 for the NDP, a 3.6 per cent chance both the NDP and Liberals take 42 seats, and a 5.9 per cent chance the NDP take 43 seats leaving the B.C. Liberals with 41.

There are caveats

Milligan cautioned his analysis comes with some significant caveats.

"I'm assuming the magnitude or the size of those boosts the party gets from the absentee ballots is about the same size as we saw in 2013. If for some reason 2017 looks very different from 2013 in terms of absentee ballots, then my math is not going to give good results," he said.

Secondly, he said he did not factor in potential riding-specific issues that could play a factor.

For instance, some have suggested that because the riding of Courtenay-Comox has a military base (and the Liberal candidate is the former base commander), the military absentee vote could be higher.

Nevertheless, it's another piece in the election puzzle.

"It's good to get a sense whether the likelihood is something like getting struck by a bolt of lightning — very rare — or a coin flip. A one in four chance is fairly decent."

For those looking for election closure, mark your calendars for May 22 to 24. That's when Elections BC expects to tally up all the absentee ballots.