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Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

I've ranted so much about the overrated Detroit Lions this offseason that I can no longer risk traveling to Wayne County until the heat dies down. But here's one more for good measure.

Most importantly, you have to realize the Lions were overrated to begin with after making the playoffs with a lot of luck in 2016. Detroit spent most of that season putting together last-second comebacks in order to beat mediocre-to-bad teams (Indy, Philly, Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville, Chicago, Minnesota twice). It's not realistic to expect quarterback Matthew Stafford to once again put together an NFL-record eight fourth-quarter comebacks.

Based on Pro Football Focus grades, the Lions were the NFL's sixth-worst team last season, while Football Outsiders ranked them 27th based on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). They ranked dead last in the league with an opposing completion percentage of 72.7 and passer rating of 106.5, they averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, and their defensive sack rate of 4.5 was tied for the NFL's second-worst.

The Lions have been crowned free agency winners in a lot of spots. And that's OK, because an argument can be made they upgraded the right side of their line by replacing guard Larry Warford with the older but more accomplished T.J. Lang and tackle Riley Reiff with the no more accomplished but slightly younger Ricky Wagner.

I don't think Lang, who might not have a lot of tread on his tires coming off an eighth season which featured nagging injury issues, is necessarily better than Warford, and NFL.com graded Reiff as a better free-agent offensive tackle than Wagner. But even if we concede that those are significant upgrades, this Lions team had to get substantially better to compensate for the law of averages after a lucky season.

I don't see it. The Lions entered the offseason looking like a team primed to take a huge step backward next season. Now, they look like a team primed to take a slightly smaller step backward.

Sorry, honey. We won't be vacationing in Detroit this year.