John McCain, R-Ariz., signs autographs after campaigning at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C. last May. McCain forced to defend N.C.

ASHEVILLE, N.C.—For the third weekend in a row, Barack Obama campaigned in North Carolina as part of the most vigorous Democratic effort since at least 1992 to win this reliably Republican state.

At a surprise stop Saturday night at a North Carolina Democratic Party dinner and again a rally here Sunday in the state’s conservative western edge, Obama sounded a confident note:


“Despite the pundits, despite the prognosticators, despite the cynicism,” Obama said at the dinner, “we are right here in the hunt in North Carolina. We can win at the top of the ballot in North Carolina. And we win at the bottom of the ballot in North Carolina. We can win in the eastern part of the state and in the western part. We can elect a new Democratic governor here in North Carolina and we can elect a new U.S. senator here in North Carolina.”

To the dismay of North Carolina Republicans, Obama may not be overstating matters.

Aides to John McCain consider North Carolina a must-win state and expressed optimism last week about their chances here, but there are signs of concern: Vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin this week will make the Republican ticket’s first visit to the state since June, and the first public appearance since a McCain speech at Wake Forest University during the primaries in May.

“They’re having to defend their turf—Republicans—in a way that they haven’t had to since 1992,” said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “And so, even if Obama doesn’t win the electoral votes here, McCain can’t take the state for granted.”

The turmoil on Wall Street and the economic downturn have helped turn North Carolina into more fertile ground for Obama, who took his first lead over John McCain in the Real Clear Politics average of state polls a week ago. As a national leader in the banking industry, the state suffered more bad news last week as it faces the loss of thousands of high-paying bank jobs—and a blow to its state pride—when Charlotte-based Wachovia Corp. put itself up for sale last week.

Similar to its flood-the-zone strategy in Virginia, which is experiencing its first competitive presidential race in decades, the Obama campaign has been aggressive in its pursuit of North Carolina.

Obama chose this city in the Blue Ridge Mountains to prepare for Tuesday’s presidential debate with the state's 15 electoral votes in mind. It’s his fifth visit since clinching the Democratic nomination in June, while vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden has made two stops and Michelle Obama traveled to Charlotte and Greensboro last month, and returns again Tuesday.

Obama is also dominating the airwaves, running about three TV ads for every one from McCain, according to North Carolina political experts.

The prospect of North Carolina as a battleground has put the McCain campaign in a bind, stirring a debate on how much time and resources it should devote to a state that has voted for Republican presidential nominees since 1976.

“Obama has basically gotten a free ride,” said a North Carolina Republican strategist who asked to remain anonymous so that he could talk candidly about the race. “He is killing McCain on the air, even running two-minute ads and new radio ads. Meanwhile, most of what we have seen from McCain has come from national cable buys. That is not a recipe for success in a state that no one thought we’d be talking about this late.”

McCain has not visited the state since June, when he met privately with evangelists Billy and Franklin Graham. There are no immediate plans for McCain to return to North Carolina, according to Brent Woodcox, a spokesman for the state Republican Party.

"Certainly we would love to see the senator in the state," he said. "But with 30 days left, the campagn has to make the decision on where to go."

Palin’s trip Tuesday to East Carolina University in Greenville for a rally shows the campaign, which has also increased its ad buys in recent weeks, is beginning to make a stronger push in the unexpectedly competitive state.

McCain advisers said they expect North Carolina, similar to other GOP states where Obama is competitive, will go with the Republican nominee at the end of the day because the Democrat is out of step with voters.

“One of the strategic decisions our campaign has made is to let Mr. Obama spend his resources in there to the point that we got closer to the election,” McCain senior advisor Greg Strimple said. “These are states with conservative voting constituencies where you have the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate running on the top of the ticket. … I believe he is going to have a hard time winning votes and I think it will be money he has spent in vain.”

Obama chief strategist David Axelrod countered, “I am happy to have them wallow in their self confidence.”

Woodcox acknowledges that the race is competitive, but said that the GOP retains the edge because it knows how to win statewide races there.

“The events nationally have an effect on how the race plays in North Carolina and there has been a lot of up and down since the convention, gaining momentum and losing,” Woodcox said. “We may still see two or three up-and-down, game-changing moments. I still think we can feel confident because of our past experiences.”

But the Obama campaign, which political observers say is waging the most organized Democratic bid here since Bill Clinton’s 1992 effort—when he fell just 20,000 votes short of victory, out of two-and-a-half-million cast — is drawing its confidence from a mix of factors.

Obama already built a statewide political network during the North Carolina Democratic primary, which he won by 14 percentage points despite a serious effort from Hillary Rodham Clinton.

North Carolina voter rolls gained more than 600,000 new registrants this year, with almost half choosing the Democratic Party and one third registered as independent. Of the state’s 6 million voters, 45 percent are Democratic, 32 percent are Republican and 22 percent are independent.

A surge in population over the last 20 years in the metropolitan areas has reshaped the electorate, as well.

“They don’t necessarily fit the old pattern, or at least the old pattern isn’t imbedded in their head,” Guillory said. “And so there are a lot of persuadable voters out there, and that’s why this state has been more competitive. It isn’t the old South, or the more rural part of the state that has become more competitive. It’s these surging metropolitan areas that make this state more competitive.”

As the momentum has shifted in Obama’s direction over the last two weeks, state political experts are just beginning to consider the real possibility of North Carolina as decisive on Election Day.

“Someone asked me the other day, ‘Do you really think at the end of the day that North Carolina voters will vote for an African American?’ I’ve got to tell you, I think the worse the economy gets, the less race matters,” said Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina Democratic political consultant. “The economy changes the dynamics so much that people don’t care what race, or creed, or gender you are. If the economy is in such decay, they’re going to want somebody who can make a change.”