Rudy Giuliani, now serving as President Trump's personal lawyer, made waves this week for offering some relief to the Russia-weary masses. Special counsel Robert Mueller, he claimed, plans to wrap up his investigation into whether Trump obstructed the Russia probe by Sept. 1. That assertion was promptly challenged by a "source familiar with the probe," who told Reuters on Monday it was "entirely made-up” and constituted “another apparent effort to pressure the special counsel to hasten the end of his work.”

Whether or not the date was fabricated by Giuliani, it's hard to imagine his public revelation of the timeline wasn't calculated. If Mueller pushes the obstruction investigation (which is only one part of his broader probe) past Labor Day, it will now look like he's dragging on, further chipping away at public support for the special counsel's work. As a consequence, Mueller's eventual findings may land with less credibility among voters primed to believe the investigation turned into a witch hunt.

In a Tuesday analysis of Giuliani's ostensible PR strategy, Politico reported on the results of a recent poll it conducted jointly with Morning Consult, tracking Mueller's favorability:



Mueller’s unfavorable rankings among Republicans hit a 51 percent peak at the end of April, a significant jump from the 28 percent who offered that opinion when contacted in mid-November. Meanwhile, his favorable rating among self-described Democrats hit its high mark at 51 percent last week — a surge from the 37 percent who reported seeing Mueller in a good light in mid-November. Independents remain on the fence, with 39 percent last week still offering no opinion on the special counsel, compared with 29 percent who see him favorably and 23 percent who see him in a negative light.



This is especially interesting given that Giuliani seems to have initially provided the Sept. 1 date in the context of the midterm elections, suggesting that an end-of-summer conclusion in the obstruction case would minimize impact at the ballot box in November. But the polarization in Politico's poll is more evidence that wouldn't be the case at all.

Nobody really knows what Mueller is going to decide in the obstruction probe. But if it's favorable to Trump, Democrats (specifically Democratic candidates) will have to grapple with that and what it means for the rest of the investigation. If it's unfavorable to Trump, the fallout from Republicans, already primed to distrust Mueller, will be significant.

Giuliani clearly senses what the poll picked up on: Mueller's waning favorability among Republicans. But even if Trump's team successfully pressures Mueller to wrap up his obstruction investigation by the fall, the conversation will almost inevitability bleed into November.