We are less than three days away from the Survivor: Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers premiere. For any Survivor fan, this feels like when you’re a kid and it’s Christmas Eve. We are so close to opening those presents but yet still so far away. Hopefully when we actually get to opening those gifts, it doesn’t end up being a rotten orange.

Mercifully, with the massive online community in which Survivor is enveloped, we have gotten plenty of pre-game material to tide us over. These fans are crazy for the show but having just finished following yet another season of Big Brother, online Survivor fans feel positively normal. There is still some stuff left to come. For example, Josh Wigler’s First One Out podcast series will conclude after the premiere with an in-depth interview with the first boot and Corinne Kaplan’s brutal cast assessment should be out early this week on RHAP. That said, most of the pre-season material has by now come out.

Having gotten the chance to really get to know this cast, or at least as much as we can know from a few interviews and CBS bios, it has given everybody the chance to theorize how everything may play out on the island. We know for sure that JP is so uninteresting that he may be the most interesting players on the cast, or things like that. We know that Alan Ball is a fan of repetition and that his way of speaking actually makes him sound bad-ass. We also know that Simon Nguyen is coming for Corinne’s wig in the form of her spot as the go-to person for negative first impressions.

Given that we have a lot more information to go on than we did even a few weeks ago, some things may have changed in terms of how these players are perceived. At this point in the game, everybody is really trying to pinpoint two things: the winner and the first boot. One will be showered with glory and fortune, the other will go home with a little less pride than before.

Now that I’ve read and listened to everything that was made available to me, I am ready to make some real predictions. Picking out a single first boot is tough and an often impossible task. In that stead, I have decided to look at each tribe individually and tell you who I see as that tribe’s first casualty should they be the ones to attend that dreaded first tribal council.

It might be important to note that one of the twists this season is a one use super idol. It will be hanging out at the marooning and one player is going to stumble upon it like Jessica Lewis and Sierra Dawn-Thomas did with their legacy advantages. The way it will work is like the Tyler Perry idol from Cagayan which is basically just the God Idols that Terry Deitz and Yul Kwon both once held. If the player who finds the idol happens to be part of a winning tribe in that first immunity challenge, said player must gift it to somebody on the losing tribe. It’s impossible to predict where that idol might ultimately end up so consider these predictions as if this thing doesn’t come into play during tribal.

Heroes Tribe

This is the tribe I am least worried about in the early days of the game. They will be hard working and thus should have resources early. That means they might be better rested and slightly more nourished than the other two tribes when it comes to competing. In this game, any sort of edge like that can pay huge dividends.

Not only is this tribe hard-working, they have a bunch of muscle too. They have a former Olympic swimmer who should still be competent in the water even if she is a good ways away from her days competing. If they have one or two people who can complete puzzles with relative ease, they should all be good to slide by until a tribe swap. My bet on the puzzle person would be Chrissy Hofbeck who is not as beefy as the rest of her tribe but is an extremely intelligent woman. She could be the anchor that helps clinch the wins for this otherwise physically imposing tribe.

Should the unexpected happen and the Heroes find themselves at tribal council on day three, I think everybody needs to be worried about Katrina Radke. She does bring some worth because of her past as an Olympian in the water but Katrina is definitely an odd duck. Most people’s first read of her is that she is kind of weird or out there and that includes some of the members of her tribe.

Chrissy Hofbeck (Actuary, Heroes Tribe): I know we all want to be individuals and I praise her for coming out with her individuality. But individuality in a game of Survivor, they don’t necessarily go together. You gotta play the game. JP Hilsabeck (Firefighter, Heroes Tribe): Another older girl. She has her haircut. She looks like she has herself together, by the way she carries herself, and things like that. Maybe she’s someone to watch out for, always playing the game, and things like that. Hopefully she doesn’t play the game too hard. Alan Ball (NFL Player, Heroes Tribe): She’s a wildcard. Oh, she’s a wildcard. She is a wildcard. She is different in every sense of the word. You can tell she’s older than me. She’s a wildcard. She doesn’t have that mom look to her. She looks more like after she leaves here she’s going on a backpack trip through I don’t know where, but she has that adventurous look about her. Yeah, she’s a wildcard to me. I think she’s going to be a spark. She’s going to be a spark. Ben Driebergen (Marine, Heroes Tribe): She’s the therapist or yoga instructor. She’s got rocks and stuff on her hands, or beads, or whatever the hell they wear. And she really observes people, you know what I mean? She was doing yoga out on the beach. So, I know she’s into that spiritual kind of stuff. I don’t know. I need to talk to her. People that are into that kind of stuff are really in depth and aware of their surroundings and what’s going on. Or at least they think they are. Ashley Nolan (Lifeguard, Heroes Tribe): She’s got the bright colors going on. She’s got this crazy smile all the time. I don’t know what she does. She reminds me of an aerobics instructor or something like that. … Behind that smile and crazy eyes, there might be some tactics that I might want to know about, you know? She might be a good one to actually keep on my team.

Based solely on the first impressions, Ashley would probably be out the door before Katrina as she’s been giving off bitchy vibes. Still, once they actually start playing the game, Ashley’s physicality will be important. Katrina is still in the midst of recovering from a car accident and is an older woman. Those are not good for her, especially in combination.

In a scenario where Katrina does become the target, it would be tough to escape without use of the super idol. Chrissy might be sympathetic to the cause but would also be happy it isn’t her. It’s just tough for me to visualise any of those guys being willing to work with Katrina, even if stranger things have happened.

Healers Tribe

This is another fairly stacked tribe. They have some good brain power, some obvious physical prowess and on paper, they should be well-rounded. I am saying this about these two tribes fully aware that in a few days, I am probably going to made to look like booboo the fool but I can just deal with that when it happens.

In the event that the Healers do end up going to meet Jeff on day three, I think that Mike Zahalsky is the primary mark on the tribe. There are multiple ways the superfan archetype character can play out on any given season.

They can be seen as useless, weak, and disposable like John Cochran in South Pacific. They can take the reins thanks to their strategic mind and social game like David Wright, Todd Herzog or John Cochran 2.0 in Caramoan. Finally, they can flame out because of their inability to perform in challenges and their lack of social integration at camp like Ryan Shoulders. At gunpoint, ask me to classify Mike in one of those categories and I would have to throw him in with Skinny Ryan.

Sorry Mike.

Not only that, his tribe sees Mike as somebody who is already scheming and plotting, mostly because he has been giving out that vibe.

Joe Mena (Probation Officer, Healers Tribe): I call him David 2.0. I think he knows the game, very social, very likable. Roark Luskin (Social Worker, Healers Tribe): He’s the one who’s constantly asking for time. And I’m like, “You’ve got to chill.” And all of us are writing in notebooks. For me, I’m just recording the experience. I want to remember whom I spoke to, what happened. The air, whatever. I just want to remember all of it. And he’s writing, “When will the games start? When will we play?” I’m like, “Dude, just chill.” And I had a feeling he was going to come in so hot. He’s going to come in so hot. And I’m a little worried for him. Yeah, I could see him being somebody I would want to trim early. Desi Williams (Physical Therapist, Healers Tribe): He actually has a lot of weird tics. So we were at the table, just kind of sitting around. We can’t talk to each other, so we’re literally just sitting, watching each other, and out of nowhere, he just starts laughing. And he’s writing in this notebook. He’s not listening to anything, he’s not reading anything; he just, like, bursts out in laughter. So I don’t know if that’s an intimidation strategy or if he’s writing jokes in his book and just thinking of something really funny. I’m not sure what’s going on in that notebook of his. But even though he has these weird tics, I like him. I’m drawn to him. He also likes to be around people. I think he certainly is yearning for some type of companionship. Jessica Johnston (Nurse Practitioner, Healers Tribe): He’s a brainiac. I can tell he is a brainiac. He’s quirky, he’s funny. I think he’s probably kind of clumsy, but he’s a good thinker, so I want to get into his head and have him help me. Cole Medders (Wilderness Therapy Guide, Healers Tribe): At casting finals, he was the only one with a notebook that said, “Outwit, Outplay, Outlast” on it. And he was wearing a suit and a nice watch. And I feel like he’s the super fan who’s finally gotten his chance to come on the show and shine. And he’s going to be a really strategic player. But since we’ve been on the island, I’ve been making an effort to reach out to him and smile a lot with him and give him a heads-up and try to connect with him visually. And it’s worked pretty well. And I’d love to have him as an ally cause it’s one of those alliances that people may not see coming, and it could fly under the radar.

It’s tough when you so clearly fit into an archetype. The last full season these players had a chance to see was Millennials vs Gen X. That season was dominated in airtime by David and his from the bottom to the top. It was won by Adam Klein, a self-proclaimed “super-duper fan”. Take one look at Mike and he clearly fits the bill. At some point or another, somebody is going to have to pay that invoice and for these players, it’s going to be top of mind.

Hustlers Tribe

Ah yes, the tribe I was extremely concerned for during my cast-preview. I’m still concerned about them but maybe a little less so than before. I genuinely thought they were going to get Matsing’ed one-by-one but after really thinking about it, I can’t see that ever happening again unintentionally. That said, I do think that were I setting the Vegas odds in any given challenge, the Hustlers would always be getting the worst odds simply because they don’t match-up well against the other two tribes.

If fate does have them sitting at tribal council, deciding who will be the first one out, I think it’s going to be complicated. As has been established, Ali Elliott and Patrick Bolton have a pre-existing relationship from attending university together. They aren’t the closest friends but any kind of familiarity in this game will be welcomed. That means we should expect them to vote as a block of two, especially early on.

So right away, that gives them a huge advantage. Given that Ali really likes Ryan Ulrich, he seems like a fairly natural third in that alliance. There is no way Devon Pinto goes home early because he is by far their most physical player and the Hustlers will need as much of that as they can.

That only leaves Lauren Rimmer and Simone Nguyen. Both have some people who feel like they want to work with them and some who aren’t feeling them. Lauren gives off a cold impression early on but a lot of people seem to want her as a follower in an alliance. Simone, despite her snark in interviews, has been giving off good vibes to many, save for Ryan who is really worried about her.

Ryan Ulrich (Bellhop, Hustlers Tribe): She’s playing hard, man. She is really playing hard. Too hard, I think, at pregame. She’s smiling at everybody, just so hard until you look back. Like, you cannot look away. She’s smiling at logs, she’s smiling at trees, just in hopes that they might be in the game, you know? And I just think it’s too much. You have to cool it down a little bit. She likes to sit right on top of people… I don’t know. I don’t have a very good feeling about her. I hope she’s on my tribe so she can annoy some other people.

In the end, I think it will simply come down to a matter of strength and ability. Lauren is not going to outrun anybody but she seems extremely solid. A strong woman can be a huge difference maker in some of these tribe challenges. She also has the benefit of knowing how to fish and likely doing very well at camping and living in nature. Simone… well she won’t be as good at that stuff.

When it comes down to it, for all the talk Simone has been doing about people, I think she will be the first to go should the Hustlers lose the first immunity challenge. Think of it like Ciera Eastin being all talk in the Game Changers pre-season only to go out first when the games actually began.

Winner Pick: Ali Elliott

So we already have the pre-established relationship with Patrick which should make navigating the early days of the game a lot easier. Between the two, Ali definitely knows more about the show and its strategy and seems like she will be the one calling the shots.

Besides that, Ali is very fit but not intimidatingly so. She’s smart but not in your face about it. She’s seen a lot of Survivor but doesn’t look like the type of person who would really be into the show. In every interview I’ve heard or read with her, she comes off extremely positively and has an air about her that makes me like her. That should translate on the island as an easy way to make friends.

If I’m looking at how Ali gets to the end, I see a lot of Michele Fitzgerald in her. A very savvy social game that makes people want to keep her around. There are a lot of big fish to fry ahead of her so if she can survive to the merge, she should be sitting pretty. That’s the only part I’m worried about if the Hustlers do get decimated early but like I’ve mentioned before, the Patrick connection soothes me a lot in that sense.

So there you have it, my picks for first boots on all of the tribes and also my winner pick. Hopefully Ali does win but if she doesn’t, I just pray she doesn’t end up being the first boot thus destroying any credibility I may have built up in that last few months.