The federal Tory leadership race is underway. While the filing deadline is Feb. 27, some are starting to wonder if it’s going to become a near-coronation.

Former Tory cabinet minister Peter MacKay has taken a big lead. Many current and former MPs, Senators, MPPs, MLAs and party activists are coalescing around his leadership bid. And not all of them are, like MacKay, left-leaning Red Tories.

MacKay has also been aided by other potential leadership candidates, including former Tory interim leader Rona Ambrose, Tory MP Pierre Poilievre and former Quebec Liberal Premier Jean Charest, having dropped out like flies.

This doesn’t mean other leadership candidates, like Tory MPs Erin O’Toole and Marilyn Gladu, will roll over for MacKay. But when the possibility of a political coronation begins to take shape, it can easily turn into a steamroller effect. If so, the race will almost be over before it’s even started.

Tory supporters would therefore be wise to think back to the last time one of its political leaders had a near-coronation, and how poorly that turned out.

In 1993, Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Kim Campbell declared her intentions to replace outgoing prime minister Brian Mulroney. She was well-liked by caucus, and more than half of them backed her. There was hope she would evolve into a Canadian version of former-British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.

Prominent Tories like Perrin Beatty, Pat Carney, Joe Clark and Michael Wilson all opted against running. They likely sensed a massive tidal wave toward a political coronation, and put their leadership ambitions on hold. In most cases, for good.

Campbell turned out to be a disaster. Her weaknesses became painfully obvious. She had barely any political experience, a poor understanding of economic policy, and no filter with the public or press. Her huge lead almost evaporated, and she was fortunate to beat Charest for the PC leadership.

It was even worse during the federal election. During her infamous interview with Peter C. Newman for Vancouver Magazine, she called Canadians who stayed out of the political process “apathetic SOBs,” and said she became an Anglican to keep away from “the evil demons of the papacy.”

The PCs went down from 157 seats to 2, and never recovered. Campbell lost her own seat, and resigned shortly thereafter. In her concession speech, she said, “Gee, I’m glad I didn’t sell my car.” It was the only amusing comment she ever made.

The whole scenario seems preposterous today. A rookie MP who barely won her Vancouver Centre seat in 1988 by 269 votes, and finished last out of 12 candidates in the 1986 provincial B.C. Social Credit leadership race, was briefly Canada’s 19th prime minister. But that’s what happened because of a coronation.

I’m not suggesting MacKay’s near-coronation would cause the same thing. But let’s learn a lesson from the Campbell debacle. It would better for the party — and the democratic process — if more Tory candidates, rather than less, threw their hats in the ring.

Correction - Feb.3, 2020: This article was edited from a previous version that mistakenly referred to former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher as the ‘then-prime minister of Britain’ in 1993. In fact, Thatcher held office 1979 to 1990.

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Michael Taube, a columnist/political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

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