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From snow to smoke in four days; from boom to bust in a stockbroker’s heartbeat. You could not find better images for the unpredictability of Alberta and Calgary.

Politics at least may seem stable — we’ve got a majority NDP government, you know — but on the ground it’s a bubbling cauldron, both in the Calgary-Foothills byelection and the federal campaign.

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Here’s the key fact: Since West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil traded at an average of $93 US a barrel in 2014, the Alberta treasury is on course to lose $7.8 billion in revenue, should oil linger in the $40-per-barrel range for a full year.

Every one-dollar drop costs the government $148 million. A 10 per cent slide in natural gas costs $31 million. This is somewhat mitigated by the weak dollar, which brings in $61-million extra for each penny of value lost in the loonie.

The full revenue losses over calendar 2015, or budget year 2015-16, can’t be known yet. But it’s clear we will be short many billions of dollars from revenue levels seen when oil sold above $90 for four straight years, beginning in 2011.