Outlook: Last year’s Mississippi State Bulldogs were not demonstrably different, roster-wise, than the 2017-18 version that went to the NIT Semifinals, but last year’s team made the NCAA Tournament as a 5 seed. MSU ranked 18th in the country in minutes continuity, a measure of how similar a team is year-over-year, and the team’s defense was actually slightly worse than the NIT version. So what led to such a stark(ville) improvement? Why, three-point shooting, of course! Mississippi State went from 329th in the country in 3P% (31.5%) to 34th (37.7%), and in a competitive sport with thin margins, that made all the difference.

Unfortunately, the four best shooters are off to the professional ranks, including stretchy big man Aric Holman, leaving just Tyson Carter and low-volume Nick Weatherspoon to threaten from deep, leading to cramped floor spacing and a generally greater struggle to put the pumpkin in the basket. Ben Howland is high on seven-foot Dutch freshman Quinten Post’s perimeter shooting, though I’m incredibly hesitant to believe he’ll play him unless he proves up to speed defensively and on the boards.

That means Howland will likely turn back the clocks to the days of his hyper-physical defenses from early in his UCLA tenure, when the Bruins ranked in KenPom’s top five in AdjDE for three consecutive seasons. Expect most lineups to feature two true bigs, with any “small” lineups still featuring the 230-pound Robert Woodard putting the “power” in power forward. Even if Woodard plays more at the 3, Howland has a four-man rotation in the front court, with obvious breakout star Reggie Perry and fellow returning starter Abdul Ado likely to open games.

Perry won the MVP for his efforts in Team USA’s FIBA u19 run to the gold medal this summer, and when you pair that with his production down the stretch last season, it doesn’t take much foresight to see him averaging close to a double-double. His biggest hindrance to that might actually be his teammates, as Ado, Woodard, Siena transfer Prince Oduro, and little-used senior EJ Datcher will be fighting wars among themselves for boards. The latter two each have Grand Canyon-sized holes in their games that will limit their playing time, though (the environmental feature, not the school). Oduro was the worst free throw shooter in college basketball two years ago (not hyperbole – 33% on 123 attempts), while Datcher has been a walking foul in the limited minutes he’s graced the floor.

Of course, I previously failed to mention the other statistical area where the 2018-19 Bulldogs showed marked improvement, going from “very good” to “borderline elite”: offensive rebounding. Perry is a bruising force with a non-stop motor, abusing smaller or sleepier bigs for repeated second chances, and again, the three bigs around him (plus Woodard) will declare war on the paint on a nightly basis.

The primary concerns about Mississippi State lie with creating quality shots with any kind of consistency. The ‘Dogs relied heavily on Lamar Peters and Quinndary Weatherspoon, and the remaining guard tandem – Carter and younger ‘Spoon – haven’t shown the same kind of offensive ability. Howland will hope one of the freshman guards – Iverson Molinar or Devin Butts – can step in and deliver some creation, whether that be in iso or pick-and-roll settings, or the offense will become a glorified form of “volleyball on the glass.” Molinar has picked up some hype in the offseason, displaying extreme vertical bounce, and if he’s ready to help generate shots, the Bulldog ceiling raises a little bit.

Even without Q-Spoon and Peters, the perimeter defense will remain stout. Howland plays all man-to-man and loves to extend his athletic guards, and this ball pressure makes it difficult for opponents to get into their sets. Woodard and ultra-lanky freshman wing Elias King (actually the highest-rated recruit) will have the athleticism to complement Nick ‘Spoon and Carter, and with plenty of shot-blocking behind them, they can gamble a little for steals and easy baskets going the other way.

Bottom Line: The ceiling is lower than last year’s squad because scoring in the half court will be a chore, but the gigantic front line and a tenacious defense should keep the Bulldogs in the middle of the SEC pack. If the shooting tumbles all the way back to 2017-18 levels, though, the sharks are circling beneath them in the standings, ready to pounce on a potentially available NCAA bid.

9. Mizzou

Key Returners: Mark Smith, Jeremiah Tilmon, Torrence Watson, Javon Pickett, Xavier Pinson

Key Losses: Jordan Geist, Kevin Puryear

Key Newcomers: Dru Smith (Evansville), Tray Jackson, Mario McKinney, Kobe Brown

Lineup: