SNP voters must weigh the risks of lending their votes to the Greens or Rise, according to top pollster John Curtice. The politics professor says giving both votes to the SNP may be a waste of time in five of Scotland’s regions, if polls stay as they are.

But he warns if Labour’s vote improves, then lending votes to other parties could risk the SNP’s overall majority.

Writing exclusively for The National on the battle for the regional or “second” vote, Curtice says if polls predicting the SNP win 66 of Scotland’s 73 constituencies are correct, then it could mean, under the system of proportional representation used in Holyrood elections, the party would only pick up list MSPs in the North East, the south of Scotland, and the Highlands and Islands.

“There is no guarantee that the SNP’s current standing in the polls of 50 per cent or more will necessarily sustain itself through to polling day,” Curtice writes. “If its lead over Labour were to narrow, then its tally of constituency seats would fall, leaving it reliant on list seats to secure an overall majority.”

Curtice, who was hailed as the only pollster to correctly predict the outcome of last May’s General Election, also says current polling suggests “neither Rise nor Solidarity appear to be in that position” to have enough votes to win an MSP.

He also warns that the polls may be “overestimating Green support”, as when people are asked how they would vote on the second ballot paper some respondents “name the party which is their second preference when in practice they will not vote differently on the two ballots”.

A spokeswoman for the SNP said they were “campaigning right across the country to ensure the best possible result in May. The party isn’t taking anything for granted and will continue to work hard to secure voters’ support in both the constituency and regional votes.”

A spokesman for the Scottish Greens said they would work “constructively” with the SNP but also provide a “healthy challenge”.

“This election is about the future direction of Scotland. If people want a bolder Holyrood that pushes the Government beyond its comfort zone, they should vote Scottish Greens wherever they see it on their ballot papers.

“With our strong polling, surging membership and team of highly credible candidates led by Patrick Harvie, we’re in a great position to achieve a record result and deliver the fresh thinking our Parliament deserves. Scottish Greens have shown we can work constructively with the SNP on shared principles such as independence, but we also provide a healthy challenge when bolder decisions are needed on issues from fracking to rent controls.”

A spokesman for Rise said it was no surprise his party was not doing better in the polls: “Rise is a new force in Scottish politics, and we are just beginning to build a national profile, so it’s not surprising that at this early stage in the election campaign we haven’t yet made much impact in the polls. But as the May vote approaches, we are confident that will change. “

The spokesman promised: “A contingent of Rise MSPs at Holyrood will keep the pressure up for a second referendum, and help push the Parliament in a more radical direction, particularly on issues of low-pay and inequality.”

Tommy Sheridan from Solidarity said a second vote for the SNP would be a “wasted vote that actually helps the Unionists”.

“If the Yes community vote SNP first vote and Solidarity or another pro-indy party second vote we will maximise the number of indy MSPs and minimise the Unionist influence. It is a perfect storm for the Yes family. It is the best way to use the electoral system.”

Sheridan continued: “We have a chance to wipe out the red, blue and yellow Tories from Holyrood. Don’t blow it.

“The cause of independence is bigger than any party. Put cause before party.”





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