While elements such as nickel, lithium and manganese have important roles to play in various popular battery chemistries, cobalt is the critical mineral concerning many industry experts.

The reason for this is the nature of its source, with over 50% of the world’s supply mined in conflict-stricken Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

With rechargeable battery electrodes being the primary use for cobalt, recent instability in the DRC has been unnerving.

Last week there were several reports of violent outbreaks and on Friday the border crossing between DRC and Zambia was closed for 24 hours by the Zambians to prevent trouble spilling over into the country.

To add to the already concerning story, Mo Ke, chief analyst at RealLi Research, said at the 2016 Argus Battery Metals Conference last week in Beijing that there would "probably be a shortage next year", thanks to a combination of increasing demand and restricted supply. Some commentators, such as Ian Pringle, managing director of Bayrock Materials and Pacific Basin Bluestone, thinks that this is an understatement.

Reuters reported in mid-2016 that cobalt prices would likely rise around 45% by 2020 as stricter emissions controls push global demand for electric vehicles (EVs), the news agency calling it "a stampede for cobalt".

World cobalt supply by country (Source: USGS)

China’s green growth driving demand

China, the world’s biggest polluter, is also trying to establish a market for new energy vehicles with China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (CMIIT) decreeing that by 2020 there shall be 5m accumulated New Energy Vehicles or NEVs in China. However, according to Yuan Gao, CEO of Pulead Technology Industry Co. Ltd, insiders are expecting more than that with the current rate of NEV production.

The term NEV is a something used in China to refer to any vehicle that can plug into an outlet. This means pure EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are included in this category, while some hybrids, like Toyota’s Prius, aren’t.

As if this wasn’t already a large enough market, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, has been quoted as saying that stationary storage is "something I think will probably be as big as the car business long term".

China is leading the charge with EVs and electric buses (Wikimedia)





Need for cobalt in battery chemistry

