[Blog] Fundamentals: Interpreting and Applying Meta Data

Est: 15 Min Read

Zdravstvuyte comrade and comradeettes, its me its your best friend its CanYouSayG, and youre reading the CanYouSayBlog, where we learn how to be a better cardfighter.

Today we are continuing our series on fundamentals, where we go over some of the core concepts in Vanguard. For veterans of the game you may know many of the concepts we are discussing, but it is always beneficial to review your fundamentals!

Charts, Graphs, Percentages and Pies. What do they all mean to me? To newer players, a lot of this information may be confusing, as if the data is only telling you to play one specific deck, but this would be far from the truth. So if they're not telling you to play this specific deck, what do these graphics tell you?

Today we will be going over meta data, and how to apply them to your tournament preparation. When aiming to win tournaments, learning the game may not be enough, you must also master the tournament environment in more ways than one.

What does meta mean

We will be starting off with what the word “meta” even means. The word is thrown around in discussion, and it often does not mean what people mean it to, sometimes as a derogatory term.

Metagaming is “ any approach to a game that transcends or operates outside of the prescribed rules of the game, uses external factors to affect the game, or goes beyond the supposed limits or environment set by the game.”

Well that's a lot of words, but what does it really mean? In short, metagaming is using factors outside the fight itself to gain an advantage. The word “meta” stems from this, meaning anything from popular, strong, overpowered, weak, counter build or counter play to the top decks, plain disdain, or anything in between. This is why you should avoid ending discussion with one word “meta”, and instead delve deeper into how to optimize your winning: if you don’t understand what you're dealing with, how can you beat it?

Deck Choice, Deck Build, Knowledge of popular decks and Popular deck builds and playstyle are the most common ways players metagame to gain an advantage, and we will be going over today how to utilize and interpret different forms of metagame data, predicting what decks you will expect to face and how to develop your skill in playing against these decks.

Popular deck vs Powerful deck

The key point behind understanding the game environment and therefore learning how to metagame is the concept of the popular deck versus the powerful deck. When trying to predict what sort of decks you will be fighting against, one of these is far more important than the other.

Popular and Powerful. In a tournament scene, wouldn't they be the exact same thing? People do want to play the best deck right?

Well, logically yes, but actually no.

See, while a decks power in itself is only affected by new cards coming out for the deck, a decks popularity in itself is affected by many factors, both in game: counter strategy rising, options to counter the strategy, and out of game: newer decks being released, the deck itself not being as fun to play, the art style not being liked by non fans of the deck, difficulty in deck construction or acquiring cards, and opportunity cost of picking one deck over the other. A new deck B coming out does not make deck A weaker, somehow, the new deck changes the environment, and potentially makes deck A less suited towards surviving in that environment.

A deck may be still as powerful as before, but a decks power is just one factor in deciding how popular a deck will be. Any of the other factors will play into how many people choose to take that deck into the tournament, and by extension, how often you will have to face it in your rounds.

People will play what people want to play.

This point in predicting what people will bring to a tournament is exactly what it says on the tin: that people will play what people want to play. The simpleton answer would be “meta”, but admitting, accepting and understanding that every opponent you face is an individual, making their own individual choices as to what deck to bring will allow you to see how different mindsets and thinking shape what people choose to bring, and allow you to predict what decks you will be actually facing.

Not everyone chooses to abide by what the consensus thinks is the best deck, and some players choose to play rogue decks, choosing surprise and mastery of their choice over deck power. Other players would choose to play the newest deck on the market, looking to play a strategy that there are fewer counters to. Other players do not have the means to acquire the best deck and therefore must play what they have, or builds that are not ideal.

Just from these few examples we can see how the market price of cards and how fast players can acquire them will shape a tournament environment. Add on to that player preference for their favorite clans or units, as well as less players being able to see what the immediate “best” deck is, and not every player even wanting to play for the win, many comfortable to play their favorite deck as long as they have fun, and you will have a better view of what the play environment will be.

Realize that a limited subset of players will only play the top decks, and that not everyone will focus entirely on winning, but all of them are players you must defeat on the way up to the top of a tournament.



Tier Lists

One of the common and controversial forms of data in Vanguard are Tier Lists.

Tier lists list several decks that are currently available for pick and try to rank them according to the creators experience and insight, stating some decks as better or worse than others. However, tier lists come in multiple forms, and definitions for what makes a tier and more importantly, what separates a tier are just as nebulous. In fact, “Tier 1” could mean either the bottom rung of decks or the top rung of decks, depending on whom you ask!

The fatal flaw with individual tier lists is that they are each the creation of different people, with different experience and different insight, and varying definitions of what is and is not the definition of each tier. One person would rank the top tier as “3” while another would break them down into “2.5” and “3”, and yet another would not see the need to break down the tiers and instead place them into “A” together, while yet another would split them further due to other factors.

So if they're just one persons opinions, what am I supposed to be looking at?

To interpret tier lists you want to be looking at multiple tier lists and multiple peoples opinions with an open mind. Instead of looking at only one and taking that as the be all and end all, you must look at multiple peoples opinions and see the trend between them. What decks are staying higher on the tier list? What decks are consistently rated highly? What deck do you know of that can beat the top decks is repeatedly rated lower?



Each tier list is one persons picture of what they think the environment looks like, and by looking at the trend, we can come to understand better what the majority of people think the better decks of the play environment are. These opinions become exchanged, developed, and more opinions rise showing what people think are the better decks. This plays into the decks popularity, shaping what people think is the best deck around and encouraging players to buy into those decks and play them.

Instead of looking at only one and taking that as the be all and end all, you must look at multiple peoples opinions and see the trend between them.

If other players share their opinion, players are more likely to play those decks, getting the boost in confidence in their deck from players around them.

Amount topping vs Amount Played

Lets have a look at these few graphics. What do you see?

Source: WCC VGCS, HK VGCS, Dexander.blog

Do follow Dexander to keep up with what decks have topped over a season!

These show meta game data: How many of each deck were played, what percentage of these decks were played at the event, what topped the event, and finally how many events each deck type topped over a format or season.

So which is the most important picture?

The answer is all of them. Both information on how many of each deck were played or their percentage, as well as what topped events are important in forming a picture of what you will expect to go up against, and therefore your own choice of deck, playstyle, and build. Each chart shows different information and they should be interpreted together to come to the conclusions you need

First lets start with the clan distribution for any given event. By studying these charts you can see a trend in popularity of each deck, and more importantly, if any decks you don’t know well are played. Remember that in a tournament you will be facing not only the “strongest” decks, but a wide array of strategies and play styles. The clan distribution chart is a way to gauge what sort of decks you will be facing, as it is the reflection of how popular each clan is.

Be prepared to face against all of the clans that you see, knowing that the more popular a deck is, the more likely you will face it, and therefore it is worth practicing against. The less popular a deck is, the less developed the strategies and builds tend to be, hence making facing them easier. The more popular a deck is, the strategies and counter strategies also exist and are more developed.

Next up we will be looking at an example chart of what decks are topping.

Example chart from Dexander.blog

Example Chart for WGP 2019 Qualifier within Japan, showing both amount played and popularity (outside pie), as well as top cut (Inside pie)

Of all the events of a season, these charts shows what decks top tournaments. These charts are important because they show the stronger decks and how they win against other decks. Do remember that the more popular a deck is, the more it is played, the more likely it is to top an event because of sheer number of players, hence correlation with clan distribution is equally important. A deck that tops just as often as it is played is just as relevant in your research into what are the strong decks as a deck that tops and is played often.

This is “conversion rate”, or what percentage of the players that played a deck top. Powerful rogue decks are the decks that have a very high conversion rate but very low played rate, allowing them to continue to top due to opposing players not being experienced in how to combat the deck.

Example: Conversion Rate for clans in WGP 2019 qualifiers within Japan

Additionally, a chart of what decks are topping are a reflection of what decks you can expect to fight in the higher tables or top cut, as well as what the competitive subset of players whom change deck to aim to use the strongest deck will tend to use.

Once again we see between these two graphics and information how deck popularity and power are important in your planning, giving you insight into what different types of players will be using and when you will have to fight what decks.

How results affect popularity

Its important to keep in mind how results shift popularity of decks. A previously popular deck can fall out of favor if they do not continue to top and bring out results, just as newer decks can prove to be the strongest very quickly. Players whom are looking for the top decks will be most likely to move their decks because of this, quickly moving to these top decks, while less competitive players will see the results and also gain confidence in the deck, moving towards it. As a format progresses you can expect players to transition more and more towards using the decks that top most, so do factor that in when you are predicting the upcoming tournament environment.

Tournament Structure: Don't build to win more, build to win more often.

Now that we have a better understanding of what decks we will be facing and how often we will be facing them, lets move on to thinking about how to tackle the tournament environment.

The first mindset to have is that in a tournament, you want to be winning as many games as you can. As such, you should be thinking about how each deck faces up against the popular decks, and how each deck faces up against the powerful decks. In a tournament, it doesn't matter how you win or lose, it only matter if you win or lose.

As such, instead of building your deck to be conditional or only good against certain decks, you must try to build your deck to be able to accommodate both the popular decks you expect to fight in swiss rounds as well as the top tables. Also, once your deck reaches a point of consistently beating one deck type, instead of focusing entirely on that matchup, consider other matchups as well.

If you expect the tournament environment to have a 30% presence of a certain deck, you have to make sure your deck is able to accommodate for that, playing more countermeasures to that deck than a 2% of a different deck. Even if that deck is not considered one of the top strongest decks, not being prepared for that matchup will result in you losing to it much earlier in the tournament, maybe never making it to the top tables.

Don’t build to win more, build to win more often.

Thinking about countering the best deck and popular decks

When you want to think about countering the powerful and popular decks, you have to look into both card selection, these decks game play, as well as your own play style. When looking into the popular decks, you want to be looking at their game play and trying to identify their weakness.

This is why a lot of players enjoy watching fight videos or opinion content, in order to acquire insight of other people’s experience with the deck, and to potentially identify weaknesses.

Are they reliant on counterblast? How much counterblast do they need each turn? What are their key parts and is there any way for your deck to retire them? What are their offensive and defensive options? If you don’t have any front row, does that affect their play? How fast can they assemble their parts? What should I be keeping my sentinels for? How will you be guarding most of their attacks?

These are some of the questions you should be asking yourself when looking at the popular decks, as well as how your deck can achieve these results.

What can I change in my deck to make it better at counterblast starving this clan?

What can I change about my playstyle to only give one counterblast to the opponent each turn?

My clan has this one card that allows me to retire front row, but at a heavy cost. Is it worth it to play to improve my matchup against this clan?

That clan has very poor defense. Is there a way to change my deck plan to improve its speed to capitalize on that?

Oh, that clan has to minus itself to do its combos if I don’t have a front row rear guard. I wonder what units my clan has that can evacuate units from the board after attacking?

I know that clan will be using a high power three critical attack on turn four or five. Better save my sentinels for that.

Well that deck certainly tries to win off of many attacks that are only 5k or 10k to guard. What cards are available to me that allow me to gather a lot of extra 5k or 10k shield?

By using tournament data, you can identify what decks are popular in the tournament scene, but just knowing means little if you do not think about how to beat or counter those strategies.

Different places have different environments

While travelling to an area that is not local to you, its important to try to predict the tournament environment as well. Not all tournament environments around the world are the same, and decks that are considered popular and powerful can vary wildly from area to area. There is no point planning to fight against multiple of Clan A if the environment you are travelling to has a large amount of Clan B instead. Player preferences vary from area to area, and its important to keep this in mind when trying to predict the play environment.

Conclusion

Today we discussed several points to consider when thinking about metagame data, and how to interpret those points. Differentiating the popular and powerful decks and understanding both are key to success in tournaments, and preparation in the form of learning up those decks and maneuvering your deck to manipulate those weaknesses is the key to success with your deck.

Perhaps now you have a renewed understanding of how to approach the charts and data you come across in your research, as well as the ways to apply this knowledge and interpret it.

That’s all for today folks I hope you enjoyed the read. Be sure to join us back later this week as discuss the Neo Nectar updates from VEB14: The Next Stage. It will be a very long article so thus will be broken up into multiple parts. Be sure to check it out!

If you're new to the blog and want to read more about some of the fundamental concepts of Vanguard, be sure to click here for our series on Fundamentals.