Study Cited in Gladwell’s Outliers has insight for NHL goalies today – and the trend is getting worse

[Update: One reader noted that this is “old news” published by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers – true, but guess where Gladwell got his information? This study. And of course he doesn’t look at whether it holds true with NHL goalies or how the trend is changing. That’s what is new in here. So I added the sub-head above…because I know not everyone will read all of this!]

Several years ago I came across a research study out of the University of Saskatchewan. PhD student Lauren Sherar studied 619 boys aged 14 and 15 who participated in the Saskatchewan provincial team selection camps in 2003. The study was to be published in the Journal of Sports Sciences.

At that age, some boys have already had their adolescent growth spurt and are significantly bigger than their peers. An early bloomer could be perceived as being more talented at a selection camp, Sherar says, because their size gives them an advantage in strength, speed and endurance. (source)

[Update: One reader noted that this is “old news” published by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers – true, but guess where Gladwell got his information? This study. And of course he doesn’t look at whether it holds true with NHL goalies or how the trend is changing. That’s what is new in here. So I added the sub-head above…because I know not everyone will read all of this!]

The most significant finding was 31 of the 40 players who made the final cut were born in the first half of the year, January-June. As we classify players by age, a player born in January could be a full year older than others competing against them for a spot on a team.

Thinking about this recently, I wanted to look at NHL goaltenders to see if the trend carries through. I downloaded data on all goalies who had played at least one game in the NHL this year. There were 79 of them.

The goalies studied in 2003 would be 21 or 22 by now. Dustin Tokarski who has played two games in Tampa this year hails from Saskatchewan and was born in 1989 – he could well have been in this study. Interestingly, he was born in September – if he made that team he would have been in the minority.

As an aside Saskatechewan seems to be a good place to grow up if you want to be an NHL goalie. Six of the 79 players who had seen action this year in an NHL net are from Saskatchewan. It’s still a bonus to be from Quebec though as 12 NHLers are from Canada’s goalie-factory, including of course all three Canadian Olympians.

So how do the birthday stats hold up in the NHL?

The NHL Birthday Stats

Total CAN USA FIN SWE RUS SVK Jan-Jun 51 24 9 4 4 4 1 Jul-Dec 28 15 3 4 1 0 1

It isn’t quite the 75% / 25% split seen in the youth study, it’s closer to 65% of the NHL goalies who were born early in the year. The trend holds in most countries, except Slovakia which has too few to really be significant, and Finland, which is interesting but a one goalie swing would make it 5:3 and quite a different picture.

What’s the message?

In the original study the author encouraged coaches to consider new ways to select teams. The problem is a developmental one. The late bloomers will fall further behind. The best kids get selected for the best teams. Those teams play more, get access to better coaching, better opportunities and so forth.

One thing going for a late born goalie today is the fact that there has never been more access to good coaching, good specialty goalie coaches. It is possible that twenty years ago raw skill and size would have had a greater effect on a young goalie’s success. Still, it is concerning that not all kids will have the same chance to succeed at the highest levels simply as a result of when they were born.

Is it getting any better?

I wondered if things might be getting better lately. Perhaps we are now more open-minded and my idea about access to coaching might be apparent in the data.

I sorted the list by birth year and checked it again. I grouped the only active goalie playing who was born in the 60s (Guess who?) with the 70s and the only goalie to play in a game that was born in the 90s with the late 80s group.

70s 1980-85 1986-90 n pct n pct n pct <=6 15 56% 23 68% 13 72% >6 12 44% 11 32% 5 28%

The trend is actually the opposite of what I guessed. In the 70s, age played far less of a role than for goalies born in the late 80s. The situation is getting worse for late-born goalies. It seems that the trend toward bigger and bigger goalies at the highest levels may be filtering down to youth levels and young goalies could be selected even more for size now.

The importance of birth month is only getting more significant.