Ten mid-majors with potential to write Cinderella stories

Scott Gleeson | USA TODAY Sports

When Loyola (Chicago) replaced Creighton in the Missouri Valley Conference two years ago, coaches knew the rumblings would come.

"When we lost Creighton to the Big East, the question was, 'Can the Valley sustain a national footprint outside of Wichita State?' Some will say we haven't. I think we have and will continue to do so," Illinois State coach Dan Muller says.

"The story line has been that we're all chasing Wichita State now," Loyola (Chicago) coach Porter Moser said.

And rightfully so. The Shockers are coming off a Sweet 16 finish, which was preceded by a one-loss campaign and a Final Four appearance the year before that. Coach Gregg Marshall turned down the head coaching job at Alabama in the offseason, and Wichita State enters 2015-16 projected as a top-15 team.

But Wichita State, much like Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, is far from a typical mid-major program these days. "If you look at what they've done in the NCAA tournament, nobody considers them a Cinderella anymore," Moser says.

But before Wichita State or Gonzaga became national contenders, they had to put on the glass slipper.

"The difference between Gonzaga and Wichita State is that the Valley has better all-around teams than the West Coast," Muller says. "And we have more teams with potential to win in the (NCAA tournament)."

That's if they can get there. Last season, the West Coast and Missouri Valley were the only mid-major leagues to receive multiple at-large bids into the NCAA tournament. Such plights illustrate the dilemma for schools playing in non-power conferences trying to squeeze into the field of 68: win the conference tournament, or don't expect to go dancing.

Illinois State knows all too well. After upsetting Wichita State in the semifinals of the MVC tournament last season, Muller's group led Northern Iowa by 14 points at halftime of the championship game before falling to the Panthers and settling for the National Invitation Tournament.

"At the end of the season, we were playing our best basketball," Muller says. "For 40 minutes, we were better than Wichita State. And for 20 minutes, we were better than Northern Iowa. Both those teams were in the top 10 during points of last season."

Such is the case for many schools with giant-slaying capabilities. Winning in the NCAA tournament isn't the hard part — it's getting there. And that can prove tricky for regular-season stalwarts among the mid-majors. Without conference tournament championships, we wouldn't have seen the magical wins against power-conference teams of Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, Mercer in 2014 and Georgia State in 2015.

Here's a look at 10 mid-majors, starting with the strongest crop from the Missouri Valley, that have the most potential to script Cinderella stories in 2016.

(Note: Ten conferences were not considered for this mid-major list. They include the seven power conferences — American Athletic, Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, Pac-12 and Southeastern — as well as the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West and Conference USA. Preseason Top 25 teams Gonzaga and Wichita State were omitted from consideration.)

Illinois State (22-13, 11-7 Missouri Valley)

The Redbirds have the best shot at taking down Wichita State, returning the bulk of their roster despite the transfer of big man Reggie Lynch to Minnesota. Last season, injuries kept this team from really making noise. There will be opportunities to do that with non-conference clashes against Kentucky and Maryland. Senior guard DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell (12.8 ppg) is an explosive inside-out scorer, and junior point guard Paris Lee provides stability on offense and creates turnovers on defense. "I thought we were right there last year, and we'll be right there again," Muller said.

Evansville (24-12, 9-9 Missouri Valley)

This could be the best team coach Marty Simmons has assembled since taking over the Purple Aces in 2007. Typically, Evansville is a middle-of-the pack MVC squad, but there's potential for this team to step into the contender mix. Two players in particular make Evansville a force. D.J. Balentine (20.1 ppg) is a guard who can score at will, and Egidijus Mockevicius is the Valley's top big man. In most instances, a Cinderella team isn't necessarily the conference's best team, but the most dangerous (i.e., Dayton in 2014).

Loyola (Chicago) (24-13, 8-10 Missouri Valley)

Moser previously coached at Illinois State but was fired before his fifth year with the program in 2007, a missed season he thought was necessary for his ambitions — lifting the Redbirds from the bottom of the MVC to the top — to meet fruition. Now he's getting a fifth year at Loyola (Chicago), a program he's resurrected by leading the Ramblers to their first postseason appearance in 30 years. Loyola won the College Basketball Invitational, which Moser thinks will be a springboard for his returnees: "Winning five games helped us create a postseason culture that we'll want for the NCAA tournament." The Ramblers bring back eight of their top nine scorers, led by junior guard Milton Doyle (11.4 ppg).

Central Michigan (23-9, 12-6 Mid-American)

The Chippewas return nine of their top 10 performers, including all five starters from last year's regular-season champion MAC squad. And they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder after falling in the MAC tournament title game. Point guard Chris Fowler (16.2 ppg, 6.1 apg) is this team's engine. Keno Davis has created a winning culture that's centered on three-point shooting — CMU ranked third in the nation last season with 10.1 treys per game. What could stand in this team's way of an NCAA run could be its conference foes. The Chippewas should handle the West Division easily, but Akron and Buffalo from the East Division could be tough outs in the conference tournament, likely the team's only path to the Big Dance.

Valparaiso (28-6, 13-3 Horizon League)

Valparaiso coach and former player Bryce Drew might as well be the godfather of Cinderella considering his shot to stun Mississippi in the 1998 tournament. But his Crusaders have yet to stir up the same magic in two trips to the NCAA tournament in the last three years, including a three-point loss to Maryland in March. This could be Valpo's season for a storybook campaign, with all the pieces in place. That starts with Horizon player of the year Alec Peters (16.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg). Guard play also will be strong, as Tevonn Walker could take another step. If Valparaiso gets to the NCAAs for the third time in four years, this could be the charm.

Pepperdine (18-14, 10-8 West Coast)

Virtually every player is back for a team that knocked off Brigham Young and Saint Mary's and only lost to Gonzaga by two last season. Stacy Davis (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg) is the Waves' primary force. The defense is smothering, particularly on the perimeter, where they limited opponents to 27% shooting. Coach Marty Wilson has steadily improved Pepperdine each of the last four seasons. The stage is set for the program to break through.

Stephen F. Austin (29-5, 17-1 Southland)

Coach Brad Underwood's team upset Virginia Commonwealth in 2014 and nearly did the same thing to Utah in March. The Lumberjacks might be back in the mix as long as they get to the NCAAs. An offensively potent Northwestern State team might be the only roadblock. Southland player of the year Thomas Walkup (15.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg) is back alongside a veteran cast. Joining the Lumberjacks will be Lasani Johnson, the son of former NBA star Larry Johnson. If Stephen F. Austin again reaches the field of 68, it will be as dangerous as ever.

Louisiana-Lafayette (22-14, 13-7 Sun Belt)

Last season's Sun Belt representative, Georgia State, pulled off the biggest upset of the NCAA tournament in ousting Baylor behind the father-son star power of Ron and R.J. Hunter. Louisiana-Lafayette, the 2015-16 Sun Belt favorite, will be better than that team. That's in large part because forward Shawn Long decided to bypass the NBA to stay for his senior season. Long averaged a double-double last season (16.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg) and figures to be even more dominant this season. The Ragin' Cajuns bring back seven of their top eight players, including three stellar guards in Jay Wright, Kasey Shepherd and Hayward Register. They'll be tested early, playing at Miami, Alabama and UCLA in the non-conference schedule.

California-Irvine (21-13, 11-5 Big West)

The Anteaters, playing in their first NCAA tournament last season, almost became a Cinderella in a narrow 57-55 loss to Louisville in the opening round. No matter. The nucleus is back, and there's a path to get back to the NCAAs. Mamadou Ndiaye (10.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) stands 7-6 and gives the Anteaters a unique asset, and if he can avoid the injury bug in 2015-16, he should blossom as a junior. Alex Young (9.4 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Luke Nelson (10.5 ppg) return in the backcourt and welcome Spencer Rivers, Los Angles Clippers coach Doc Rivers' son.

Yale (22-10,11-3 Ivy League)

The Bulldogs tied for first place in the Ivy League before losing to Harvard in a playoff game that could have led to the program's first trip to the NCAA tournament since 1962. That sour ending likely served as motivation for this group. Justin Sears, last year's Ivy League player of the year, is the key returner. Role players will have to develop into larger roles, but the nucleus and spirit are there as is a veteran coach in Johnny Jones.

Honorable mention: Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), Brigham Young (West Coast), Princeton (Ivy), Columbia (Ivy), Harvard (Ivy), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Hofstra (Colonial), Iona (MAAC), Akron (Mid-American), Buffalo (Mid-American), Lehigh (Patriot), Grand Canyon (Western Athletic), South Dakota State (Summit), Stony Brook (America East), Chattanooga (Southern), Coastal Carolina (Big South).

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