Ben Stokes’s chances of making a dramatic return to England’s Ashes squad appeared to suffer a major setback on Wednesday when police referred his assault case to the Crown Prosecution Service.

Stokes flew to New Zealand on Monday in a move that seemed to give him the best chance of an Ashes return for the third Test at Perth which begins on 14 December, provided the legal case and any cricketing suspension went his way.

A quick comeback looks a distant prospect after Avon & Somerset police asked the CPS for “charging advice” having concluded its investigation into an incident outside a Bristol nightclub in the early hours of 25 September in which they say a man had his eye socket fractured.

When met by his parents at Christchurch airport, Stokes had said he was looking forward to some family time and “working on my golf swing”. But behind the scenes the provincial side Canterbury were holding a board meeting to decide whether to sign the suspended all‑rounder on a short-term deal.

Though still unavailable for England selection following his arrest, Stokes is trying to get himself in the best possible physical shape. But the chances of him playing Ashes cricket appear to have receded and it may be the one-day series in January is a more realistic target – although even that is understood to hinge on the CPS dropping his case.

A criminal solicitor with nearly two decades of experience told the Guardian that the police’s decision to ask for charging advice is a setback as the player’s case has moved to the next stage when the police could have decided there was insufficient evidence to proceed.

It will now be up to the CPS to decide how to move forward. Usually it takes several weeks to make such a decision. However the solicitor said in certain high-profile cases, decisions can be made in one or two weeks.

The ECB has refused to comment on the police’s decision, or Stokes’ playing chances.

In its statement Avon & Somerset police said: “A 27-year-old man suffered a fractured eye socket in the incident on Queens Road, Clifton. A 26-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of causing actual bodily harm and was later released under investigation. We have passed a file to the Crown Prosecution Service and are now seeking charging advice.”