Ed Miliband’s personal ratings are miserable, and if anything are getting worse. There are two reasons why come the election next year this may not matter though - David Cameron and the NHS

Ed Miliband's personal ratings may not matter that much. At least, for now

Ed Miliband’s personal ratings are miserable. By almost any measure, from leadership to the words voters pick to describe him, across all polling firms, the numbers are poor.

Tom Mludzinski (@tom_ComRes) Leader image ratings ahead of Miliband speech at #Lab14 - statesman like, intelligent, weird? New poll for @itvnews pic.twitter.com/bL9z58sidk

The Labour leader’s ratings haven’t changed much over time either.

If anything, the numbers are getting worse.

How does Labour’s poll lead reconcile with Ed Miliband’s ratings?

While the gap has halved over the past year and a half, the Labour party still leads in the polls by about three-five points. With less than a year to the general election, it’s small, things may well change, but still, it’s a lead.

There are at least two reasons for this apparent contradiction.

The first is the Prime Minister. Ed Miliband isn’t running against Obama ‘08 or German chancellor Angela Merkel, whose approval is stably on record high levels of above 70%. He is competing against David Cameron.

Asked in a YouGov poll earlier this month which main party leader they trusted most, 40% of respondents said “none of the above”, 22% said Cameron and 16% Miliband. Asked who they would like to have round for dinner, 14% said Cameron, 11% Miliband, with “none of the above” outscoring them both, again, with 45%.

Ed Miliband is unpopular, but, even though with numbers that aren’t as bad, so is David Cameron. The next election is unlikely to be decided by charisma, personality or leadership.

The second factor is saliency of issues - in other words, which issues voters feel are most important, and which party and leader do they trust most on these specific issues.

Cameron leads Miliband on economic trust, yet when asked which issues are most important, voters score the NHS and healthcare nearly as high.

This from the latest Ipsos MORI political monitor:

On the NHS, Labour and Miliband lead.

Labour’s challenge will be to keep healthcare high on the list of issues that most concern voters.

Meanwhile, any guesses on the topic of Ed Miliband’s speech today at party conference?