14:43

Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Standard Life Investments, has just published a note about the implications of a Trump or Clinton victory.

If Hillary takes the White House the Lawson says the status quo will be maintained. There’ll be gridlock in Washington but the economy will maintain its slow but steady recovery, and the Federal Reserve could hike borrowing costs next month.

He writes:

“ In this ‘status quo’ outcome the combination of a healthier economy and reduced policy uncertainty should allow the Fed to recommence normalising interest rates at its December meeting, though the pace of rate increases will remain gradual.”

But if Trump wins...



“Donald Trump’s election would introduce more uncertainty to the outlook for government policy, economic activity and the Fed, though those risks are not all to the downside. Initially, considerable market volatility is possible but it is actual policy decisions that will dictate the trajectory for the economy.”

Lawson is betting Trump’s tough trade talk is largely hot air and if he cuts regulation on the finance, energy, telecoms and healthcare sectors, that could boost earnings.