A $1-billion increase in costs to rehabilitate the Gardiner Expressway and uncertainty over federal funding has raised the possibility of reopening the controversial council decision to rebuild the eastern section of the highway instead of tearing it down for less than half the cost.

The sudden increase, from $2.6 billion to a now-estimated $3.6 billion to repair the entire expressway was quietly released halfway through a staff report Thursday. That report landed just ahead of Mayor John Tory endorsing the idea of tolling both the Gardiner and the Don Valley Parkway.

Rebuilding the 1.7-kilometre section east of Jarvis St., as approved by council in March, has increased by $468 million, staff say. It is now estimated to cost $1.4 billion for the so-called “hybrid” option.

That “gargantuan cost” will be hard to justify, critics of the hybrid plan said Friday.

“I call that sticker shock,” said Councillor Joe Mihevc. “You want it? You really want it? And you turn over the price tag and you say, ‘Oh, ouch. Maybe I shouldn’t be looking in this direction.’

“I think that’s the moment that we’re at.”

Tearing down the Gardiner East, or the “boulevard” option as it became known, was originally estimated to cost just $461 million. There was no updated cost projection for that option in Thursday’s report, but according to a city spokesperson it is likely to have increased as well.

Relative to the hybrid option, the boulevard has been less than half the cost.

According to the staff report, there are several reasons for the sudden cost inflation.

The initial estimate for the hybrid was for a “base case” design, and has been further refined since council approved a specific alignment, resulting in a higher cost. The original estimate for the entire rehabilitation also didn’t include some costs associated with financing, project management, additional material, and increased scope, which staffers have since identified.

The new $3.6-billion estimate still doesn’t include the cost of public-realm improvements east of Jarvis, estimated at $60 million.

Compounding the problem of the higher price tag are questions about whether the federal government will contribute funding.

Last year, the plan presented to council stated that if the Gardiner rehab was designed as a public-private partnership (P3) it would “pre-qualify” for federal funding of up to one-third of the cost, or $820 million.

But according to the city report, that funding hasn’t been secured.

Brook Simpson, a spokesperson for federal Infrastructure Minister Amarjeet Sohi, confirmed that the city submitted an application to P3 Canada, which was created under the previous Conservative government. The new Liberal government is in the midst of rolling out its own infrastructure funding plans, and “the consideration of new projects under P3 Canada was paused,” Simpson said.

“The associated funds are now available as part of our long-term plan which includes a dedicated $10-billion stream for trade and transportation. If the City of Toronto wished to submit a request for funding under our new plan, we would consider it.”

Speaking on CBC’s Metro Morning on Friday, Tory suggested the city couldn’t rely on Ottawa pitching in for the Gardiner.

“We had thought we were going to get some money from the federal government under programs in place with the previous government and that program seems to have kind of gone away,” he said. “We’re being prudent in saying we may have to pay for that.”

In an emailed statement, a spokesperson for Tory said his office had been in contact with Sohi’s office about applying for new funding, however. She also signalled that the mayor would oppose reopening the Gardiner debate.

“The mayor has a plan to toll the Gardiner and DVP to pay to build the largest transit and infrastructure expansion in the city’s history. Tolls will not work if we sever the continuous connection between the Gardiner and the DVP,” wrote Amanda Galbraith.

Councillors who supported the boulevard argued the cost of keeping the highway did not justify saving a few minutes on the future commutes of just 5,200 people who travel west during the rush hour, according to city data.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

And if tolls work as they are meant to by alleviating congestion, more people would be deterred from taking the Gardiner — meaning the cost to rebuild the hybrid will have increased, while the number of people it benefits declines.

A suggested $2 toll, which Tory said he used as just an example, would raise close to $5 billion over 30 years, according to a staff report. After paying for the new cost of the Gardiner rehabilitation, there would be about $1.4 billion for transit. That leaves little for projects already on the books.

Council procedures allow revisiting a debate if significant new information is introduced, which some argue a $1 billion increase in costs certainly is.

Read more about: