Marco Rubio has focused all efforts on winning his home state of Florida on Tuesday. | AP Photo 5 numbers that will define next Tuesday's primaries

Continuing our POLITICO feature where we dig into the latest polls and loop in other data streams to tell the story of the 2016 campaign. Here are this week's numbers to watch:

Skirmishes Friday evening between protesters and fans at Donald Trump’s rally at the University of Illinois-Chicago exposed the cleavages of Chicagoland politics: the overwhelmingly Democratic city of Chicago, and the Republican orientation of the five counties surrounding the city.

Those “collar counties” are a Trump stronghold, according to a Chicago Tribune poll out this week: Trump had a big lead in the collar counties, with 37 percent, compared to 23 percent for Marco Rubio and 21 percent for John Kasich. Together, the five collar counties — DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will — comprise about a third of the GOP primary vote in most statewide primaries.

That was Trump’s strongest area in the Tribune poll: He was at 30 percent in Cook County, which includes Chicago, and at 29 percent in Downstate Illinois.

Downstate provides about half the vote in Republican primaries, and it represents the best chance to deny Trump delegates in Tuesday’s primary. The Tribune poll has Ted Cruz running a close second in the conservative Downstate areas, at 27 percent. If Cruz can win a number of the Downstate congressional districts, he can steal some delegates, even if Trump wins the statewide vote.

If Rubio has any chance to upset Trump in the Florida primary next week, he’ll need to run up the score in his home base of South Florida, especially among Cubans in the Miami area.

A Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey, conducted for the Lakeland Ledger and WTSP-TV in Tampa, put Rubio just six points behind Trump, 36 percent to 30 percent; other polls point to a bigger Trump lead.

But the poll showed Rubio running up huge margins among Hispanic voters, with the Florida senator at 62 percent, compared to just 14 percent for Trump.

As the Michigan Democratic primary showed this week, getting the right mix of different groups of voters is essential for accurate polling — especially when one demographic group is backing a candidate to such a strong degree. Pollsters’ ability to predict the Hispanic share of the GOP primary electorate correctly — not normally a problem in Republican primaries outside Florida — will help determine their overall accuracy.

Republicans in Florida are so excited that nearly 1 million have already voted in the presidential primary, and there’s still one more day of in-person early voting to go on Saturday.

Four years ago, only 646,000 Republicans voted early or absentee, with another 1 million turning out on primary day. This time, turnout could top 2 million overall.

It’s unclear whether this reflects Trump-driven enthusiasm or a strong Rubio ground game — or both. Polls differ on which candidate holds the early-vote advantage.

On the Democratic side, more than 700,000 voters have cast ballots so far. Democrats outnumber Republicans on the voter rolls — suggesting Democratic turnout will likely lag in another swing state on Tuesday.

As both favorite-son candidates prepare to face their states’ voters on Tuesday, this much is true: Ohio Republicans like the job Kasich is doing as their governor. But Florida Republicans have soured on Rubio as he concludes his only six-year term in the Senate.

Nearly four-in-five GOP primary voters in Ohio said they approve of Kasich’s performance as governor, a Fox News poll in the state showed. That’s helped stake Kasich to a modest lead over Trump in the poll; other surveys show Trump slightly ahead.

But in Florida, fewer than half of GOP primary voters approve of the job Rubio is doing as senator, while 38 percent disapprove — perhaps a sign that attacks on Rubio’s attendance record have resonated.

And that lackluster approval rating is driving the presidential primary: Rubio leads by 12 points among voters who approve of his job performance, but he trails by 62 points among those who disapprove.

Rubio isn’t seeking a second term in the Senate. But prior to his presidential campaign, many in Florida thought he’d consider running for governor in 2018 if he didn’t make the ticket. His standing among Republicans suggests he would need to rebuild his image to win the nomination over other possible GOP challengers, like Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who left Congress to run for state office in 2010.

Bernie Sanders crowed last month after the Nevada entrance poll showed him beating Hillary Clinton among Hispanic caucus-goers, but all evidence suggests Latinos are a key part of the coalition Clinton is building as she continues to lock up the delegates necessary to win the Democratic nomination.

Her lead among likely Hispanic voters in Florida is 53 points, according to the Mason-Dixon poll, which stakes Clinton to a 45-point lead overall.

That’s similar to her margin in Texas among Latinos, according to exit polls there this month: 71 percent to 29 percent.