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Four years ago, in December of 2015, there was only one Republican candidate polling above 30%, while most of the rest of the field was polling under 18%. By April 22nd, 2016 (Earth Day), Governor Kasich had peaked at 22% in the polls and Senator Cruz was just above 30%. The question is if Governor Kasich and Senator Cruz had teamed up, would someone else have been their party’s nominee? The answer is no, at least not in April, which is very late in the primary. What if all of the Republicans, except the frontrunner, teamed up in December 2015? Would the 2016 Republicans Primary have had a different result? Maybe, but which candidate would they have rallied around? And, how would they get so many candidates to agree on whom?

The 2020 Democratic Primary race is fundamentally different. It isn’t difficult to compare the field of candidates in the 2016 Republican Primary to the field of candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary. It is difficult to compare the dynamics though, because a troll hijacked the 2016 Republican Primary. There was never an opportunity to really consider a Moderate versus Tea Party versus Libertarian dynamic in the 2016 Republican Primary. Had there not been a troll on stage, the 2016 Republican Primary would have been a useful case study for 2020 Democratic candidates.

One of the greatest fallacies of American politics is that we have a two party system. People forget the two laws of thirds that exist in the United States. In any given election, one third of eligible voters will vote for a Republican, one third for a Democrat, and one third will either vote for a third party or not vote. Likewise, a third of Americans identify as Republicans, a third identify as Democrats, and a third identify as Independents or something else. In reality, America’s political system is more like a dormant multiparty system that presents as a two party game.

Perhaps our elections are most like bowl games in college football. There are the two teams on the field, and then there is the crowd. Some people are there for one team, some people are there for the other, and some people just want to enjoy the game regardless of who is playing. And, having the crowd on your side is a distinct advantage, though it doesn’t always guarantee a win. Maybe our Primary process is more like the NCAA college basketball tournament.

In any case, the 2020 Democratic Primary is either going to be determined by a brokered convention or a handful of prominent candidates dropping out early before Super Tuesday. The field is too big with too many viable candidates to reasonably expect Super Tuesday to determine the Democratic nominee as it has in the past. Keep in mind that Super Tuesday includes the home states of six of the current 2020 Democratic Presidential candidates. Imagine if Senator Bennet wins Colorado, Senator Klobuchar wins Minnesota, Secretary Castro wins Texas, Senator Sanders wins Vermont, Senator Warren wins Massachusetts, and Tom Steyer wins California all on the same day. This probably won’t happen, because some of those candidates are not necessarily the strongest candidates in their home states, and some of them are polling so low nationally that we’d hope at least a couple of them would drop out before Super Tuesday.

We have to assume that some of the 15 Democratic candidates currently in the race right now are only in it for one of three reasons — A) to raise money and issue awareness for the party, B) to play defense for another candidate and occupy media space, or C) to position themselves politically and sell books. There are eight candidates polling so low that they haven’t been invited to the December debate, so they can’t possibly see a path to victory.

Although, there are some very good reasons for low-polling candidates to stay in as long as they can. One reason for some low-polling candidates to stay in the race is age. Of the four highest polling candidates, three are at least five years past the age of retirement, and one is barely old enough to run for President. Age (in either direction) doesn’t really have any implications on the quality of their policies and leadership ability, but age does play a role in the volatility of a campaign and potentially a Presidency. Health moments and age-related gaffes could change the dynamic of the race very quickly, especially if the media focuses on those moments. So, a wait-and-see strategy is not completely unreasonable for low-polling candidates as frustrating as that may be for the higher-polling candidates.

There is also good reason for the Democratic Party to encourage extremely low-polling candidates to stay in the race. It is conceivable that there could be dozens more candidates that would take up less than 1% of real estate in the polls, but would take up considerably more real estate in the minds of the American public. Imagine if there were Democratic Presidential candidates from every state doing stump speeches and pushing ideas forward. The Democratic Party could develop a much deeper bench for future elections and reach millions of voters where they are. In the age of content wars, it would make sense from a marketing perspective for every primary in the future to be crowded.

It might be time, however, for the top six to twelve candidates to start making deals and alliances. There are only two logical strategies at this point. The first is for candidates to simply run their respective races and prepare for the very real possibility of a brokered convention. The second strategy is to create a publicly viewed alliance. There are likely already some informal alliances that have been formed behind the scenes. It is also conceivable that the exits have already been planned.

“All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players; They have their exits and their entrances.” — William Shakespeare

In the age of superhero movies, it is hard not to view the 2020 Election as an epic battle for the future of humanity. There are obvious parallels with the Marvel Cinematic Universe. We all know who Thanos is in this analogy. Vice President Biden would probably be Captain America. Senator Sanders would probably be Iron Man. Senator Warren would be Black Widow. Andrew Yang would be Vision. Mayor Buttigieg would be… the Winter Soldier maybe? In any case, we are probably at the point in the 2020 story line where we start to see two teams forming in the race for the nomination.

What if the current field of Democratic Presidential candidates were to start forming publicly visible alliances? Who would team up? If you were to put candidates on teams based on where they stand on issues, it would probably make sense to have Vice President Biden, Senator Klobuchar, and Mayor Buttigieg come together as one unit, and Senator Sanders, Senator Warren, and Andrew Yang come together as another unit. Those would likely be the teams if an “invisible hand” made the teams and only if the teams were made in a single moment. There is another issue of timing.

In reality, there is no way four top tier candidates would all drop out in a single coordinated announcement, though that would be a very powerful message. More likely would be one prominent candidate dropping out in one month, and then another in the next month, and so on. There is a clear first-mover advantage to forming publicly visible alliances though.

Let’s pretend Senator Sanders, Andrew Yang, Congresswoman Gabbard, Tom Steyer, and Marianna Williamson all drop out on the same day and endorse Senator Elizabeth Warren. At that moment, Senator Warren would become the candidate with the most support, and she’d also become a target. At that point, it would become a 3-way race between Vice President Biden, Senator Warren, and Mayor Buttigieg. Senator Warren would then be in a position to make a deal with Mayor Buttigieg. The young Mayor Buttigieg might be willing to drop out and endorse Senator Warren if she were to agree to him being the Vice President. Mayor Buttigieg is young, so it would potentially mean 16 years of Mayor Buttigieg in the White House, which must to be appealing to Mayor Buttigieg.

Senator Sanders has made it clear that his campaign is not about him, but rather us. He is probably the only top tier candidate that has the humility to drop out for the good of the country. At this point, it is possible that any of the four highest polling candidates could win the nomination, but in a brokered convention and with super delegates still having significant power in the party, Vice President Biden or even Mayor Buttigieg might have the upper hand.

On the other hand, if Vice President Biden were to drop out and endorse Mayor Buttigieg, while Senator Sanders and Senator Warren continue to split the progressive vote, then that might lead to Mayor Buttigieg getting the nomination. From a game theory perspective, Senator Sanders, Senator Warren, and Mayor Buttigieg have no incentive to drop out and endorse Vice President Biden. And, Vice President Biden has no incentive to drop out and endorse any of them. Gender is also at play, because there is a desire within the Democratic Party to have a woman on the ticket. Senator Warren is the only woman in the top tier of the polls, so she will likely not drop out. It really has to be one of the three men — Vice President Biden, Senator Sanders, or Mayor Buttigieg.

January is usually when most low-polling candidates drop out, so we will likely see the 15-candidate field of Democrats diminish significantly in the next few weeks. The debate stage in January will likely include even fewer candidates as well. We will likely see the bifurcation in the Democratic Party even more pronounced than we already have. This Primary will be an illustration of the Prisoner’s Dilemma exercise in economics. It seems apparent that the humility of one of the top four candidates will lead to the most optimal outcome for the country, which is an uncontested Democratic Primary. A bold move early on in the race might be what it takes to win the nomination without the influence of the super delegates coming into play. Game theory has never been more relevant in modern American politics.