With the 2020 Taiwan presidential race now an all-but-foregone conclusion, attention is now focussed on the legislative races being held concurrently. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is angling to keep their legislative majority, which they may or may not keep. The party knows from hard experience during the presidency of their own Chen Shui-bian, when an opposition coalition of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People’s First Party (PFP) made life difficult for the party and the president’s agenda.

I’m of the opinion they will keep their majority and will win roughly the same number of seats they hold now, plus or minus a few–but there are enough uncertainties the DPP can’t afford to be complacent.

The legislative races

The legislature has 113 seats, of which 73 are geographical districts, 34 appointed proportionally by parties from their party list and 6 reserved for indigenous Taiwanese. In past elections the bulk of the party’s attention would be on the district races, but this year the party list is getting more attention than in past elections. Normally dull lists of academic worthies and political heavyweights, the KMT this time packed their party list with older, politically connected men and, most controversially, some candidates considered by the public as being loyal to Communist China.

Most controversial on the list is retired lieutenant general Wu Sz-huai (吳斯懷), who–for example–went to the PRC and attended a speech by Chairman Xi Jinping, and was observed to have stood for the national anthem (it’s unclear if he sang along). He’s also appeared on TV giving advice to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on how to defeat Taiwan’s close partner the United States in a war, among other actions that call into question his loyalty to the nation.

To almost everyone’s dismay–including within the KMT–he was put at number four on the party list, which is widely considered “safe” as the proportion of the vote the KMT gets in even the worst of elections for the party is well above the votes needed for him to enter the legislature. Once in the legislature he will have access to sensitive government documents, a point on which his critics are heavily focused.

This has catapulted the deeply unpopular KMT party list into a campaign issue for the DPP to use on the stump. DPP legislative candidate Enoch Wu (吳怡農) was among those who popularized a cross-party campaign to try and encourage voters to vote for any party list except the KMT’s, hoping to bring the total number of votes to below 1.59 million or less to block Wu Sz-huai from getting a legislative seat. It’s a long shot, but the campaign itself is good for mobilizing the party faithful of the DPP and the smaller parties also backing the campaign.

The DPP’s front lines

So this time the campaigns in each local district will come with a heavy dose of campaigning on the party list. With only a few weeks left, where is the DPP concentrating their firepower? Not having access to their ad buys, or lists of smaller activities, let’s see where they’re sending the big rally road shows. From the Taipei Times:

For the final two weekends of December, the DPP will concentrate on Taipei and New Taipei City, with Vice President Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) and Lai riding in motorcades on Dec. 22, in a push for DPP legislative candidates, said a DPP insider who declined to be identified.

For weekend of Dec. 29, the party would focus on DPP legislative candidate Enoch Wu (吳怡農) in Taipei’s third electoral district, with the theme of “Down with Wu Sz-huai (吳斯懷) to safeguard Taiwan.”…

DPP officials set the final stretch from Jan. 1 to 10 as the “golden week,” when it is to organize rallies across all cities and counties in Taiwan, starting in Hsinchu City (on Jan. 1); Pingtung County (Jan. 2); New Taipei City (Jan. 3); Yunlin County, Changhua County and Taichung (Jan. 4); Taoyuan, Tainan and New Taipei City’s Sinjhuang District (新莊, Jan. 5); and Changhua, Yunlin, Yilan, Nantou and Hsinchu counties, as well as Taoyuan and Keelung (from Jan. 6 to 9).

On Jan. 10, the day before the elections, the party is to hold rallies in Kaohsiung and Taipei, with some adjustments likely depending on planning, officials said.

What immediately jumps out as being different than what they’ve been doing the last few months: visiting Taichung constantly. Going forward Taichung will only be targeted once. True, the January 4 rally is a Saturday, but that’s the only visit between now and the election January 11.

Taichung is usually considered a key swing city, and is the second largest city, so this is a little surprising. It’s possible they think they’re already solid in Taichung, or they think the races in Taichung are all pretty much set in stone, or they feel they’ve covered Taichung enough in the last few months…but it interesting this normally key battleground is getting so little love from the DPP after months of fawning over it.

DPP on the offensive

If Taichung is usually considered a key swing city, Changhua has been so reliable in picking the eventual winner in the presidential race (and there is a high correlation between legislative and presidential votes historically in Taiwan) that there is an expression “win Changhua and win all under heaven (得彰化得天下)”. That they are hitting Changhua twice suggests they feel they are under threat there, in spite of the DPP saying their candidates are all either ahead or close in the polls (link in Chinese).

The DPP won three of four seats last time, but Changhua historically is more pan-blue than pan-green. The DPP is insisting–with both the president and party chair recently emphasising this–that if they win a “home run” clean sweep of all four seats in Changhua, that will ensure they keep a majority in the legislature (link in Chinese). Trying to convince local voters their votes matter is a standard challenge, but the party does seem to view those four seats as an important key in forming another majority.

Taipei and New Taipei are high on the list as well, both of which lean toward the KMT traditionally. Taking on the KMT so heavily in those cities, but going light on traditional battleground Taichung, smells like the DPP is not only highly confident–they’re aiming to bring the battle to the KMT on their turf.

History repeats itself, again?

If they are successful in making big inroads in KMT stronghold cities, that would be an impressive feat, and an interesting blast from the past. Originally when the DPP emerged from the “outside of the party” activist coalition (黨外) fighting against the KMT-led government during the martial law era, they were strong in the north and in urban areas–the exact opposite of what it has been in more recent years, where they have been strong in the south and rural areas. There are good reasons to suspect a shift is underway once again as the DPP has become increasingly led by well-educated, urban and socially liberal leaning technocrats, while the KMT has recently been campaigning on more socially conservative issues popular in what has been the DPP’s heartland for almost a generation.

(Feature photo by Alex Young)