Applies the tools of complexity science? To what? To these guys?

The Great Transition by Mauro Bonaiuti, an economist at the University of Turin in Italy. Bonaiuti’s book applies the tools of complexity science to diagnose the real dynamic and implications of the global economic crisis that most visibly erupted in 2008.

Of the near infinity of examples I could cite to back up that statement, I will choose one. It's called The End of Endless Growth: Part 1 (Vice, January 1, 2015). The article, which is by Nafeez Ahmed, serves up some pretty standard doomer stuff, the main source of which is—

I see that human nature did not change when the clock struck midnight on December 31st

I will skip the doomerish biophysical blah, blah, blah and get right to the Flatland bullshit complexity science.

Civilization is thus undergoing a huge, momentous phase shift as the current form of global predatory capitalism crumbles beneath the weight of its own mounting unsustainability. As this process unfolds, it simultaneously opens up a range of scenarios for new forms of society, within which there is an opportunity for “a great transition towards new institutional forms” that could include greater “democratic self-government of communities and their territories.”

Greater democratic self-government of communities and their territories.

Hmm... Does he mean this might happen on Earth? This is not a description of the future on the planet we're living on.

Despite the very real disru​ptions this phase shift entails, many of which have been explored in depth here at Motherboard (the unprecedented spate of global unrest being a major example), the Italian economist is cautiously optimistic about the potential long-term outcomes.

Cautiously optimistic? What does "complexity science" teach us?

“When the framework changes, as the sciences of complexity teach us, there will be other forms of economic and social organization more suited to the new situation,” Bonaiuti wrote. “In particular, in a context of global crisis, or even stagnant growth, cooperation among decentralized, smaller scale economic organisations, will offer greater chances of success. These organizations can lead the system towards conditions of ecological sustainability, more social equity and, by involving citizens and territories, even increase the level of democracy.”

Perhaps that picture I included above was insufficient to make my point about complexity science.

Let's try again.



ecological sustainability, more social equity, increased levels of democracy

Here comes the "post-growth economics."

Bonauiti uses the term “degrowth” to describe this new framework, but degrowth does not simply mean no growth, or even negative growth. It actually entails a new science of “post-growth economics” in which the obsession with measuring material accumulation as the prime signifier of economic health is jettisoned. This perspective recognizes that endless growth on a finite planet is simply biophysically impossible, literally a violation of one of the most elementary laws of physics: conservation of energy, and, relatedly, entropy.

Relatedly, entropy? Yet another Doomer has not read Tim Garrett, or has not understood him.

If Bonauiti is right, then even as conventional economic tools turn out to be increasingly impotent, we should expect to see more and more signs of this changing framework, and with it, the emergence of potential new forms of economic and social organization that work far better than the old industrial paradigm we take for granted. And that’s exactly what’s happening.

And that's exactly what's happening?????

Where is it happening? In Nafeez Ahmed's Flatland brain? This turns out to be the correct answer.

In an upcoming installment of this column, I’ve rounded up five major “revolutions” which are already undermining the old paradigm and paving the way for viable alternative approaches: the information revolution, the energy revolution, the food revolution, the finance revolution, and the ethical revolution. The big shifts constituted by these revolutions are developing disparately, tentatively, and often incoherently—but despite that, they are evolving inexorably, and in coming years will be increasingly difficult to contain and co-opt. All of them involve an increasing dispersion of power to people and communities, away from traditional centralized hierarchies of control. As they accelerate and begin to interact, the opportunities for transition will also open up.

You can read about these exciting "revolutions" happening right now! Here's Part 2.

Not that any of this revolution stuff is going to be easy

That’s not to say any of this will happen in a simplistic, easy-peasy manner. Bonauiti identifies four potential scenarios for the future, and one of them involves “collapse”—which somewhat speaks for itself. Those who benefit from the old paradigm are likely to resist the most. Quite literally, the future of our species and the planet will be defined by the entirely unpredictable way people everywhere might respond to the reality of change, whether through resistance, disbelief, apathy, engagement, adaption, or action. So welcome to 2015: a year when our choices could determine the future of the planet.

Yes, 2015 promises to be a Big Year In Flatland.

But so was 2014. In fact, it was a record-setting year for rhino poaching.

And so was 2013. And so was 2012 [images below]. And so was 2011. And so was 2010.

... you get the idea.