OK, it's time for a quiz.

Each of these teams sees its offensive DVOA drop in the fourth quarter: Green Bay, Houston, New England, and Pittsburgh. Can you put them in order from the team with the biggest drop to the team with the smallest drop?

While you work on that, here's the mailbag question from today's DVOA discussion thread.

Paul M.: If there was a "First Three Quarters" DVOA, I would think the Packers would dominate and begin to show they are more of a historically dominant team than they are currently credited for, but then again that would discount some teams (any one in particular that comes to mind??? Hmmmm..... maybe they play in the Mountain Time Zone??) and their ability to rally late.

Nat: Aaron, could you publish the rankings/numbers for "First Three Quarters" DVOA? ... In theory, this all-but-late DVOA should avoid the prevent-defense, garbage time, hail-mary, shut-the-offense down, play-the-backups issues -- while still being a large enough sample to characterize each team pretty well. Pretty please?

OK, so, first let's answer the quiz question above. The answer, in order from biggest drop to smallest, goes: Pittsburgh, Houston, New England, Green Bay.

Didn't expect that, I bet?

An idea that came up in the DVOA discussion thread today is that the Packers take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, and that's the biggest reason they don't have a historically dominant DVOA that compares with teams like the 2007 Patriots and 1998 Broncos. Well, if DVOA is to believed, this is simply not true. In general, compared to this year's other top offenses, the Packers don't drop off much in the fourth quarter. This week against the Raiders was a dramatic exception, with the Packers putting up 33.4% DVOA in the first three quarters and then -155.4% DVOA in the fourth quarter (on only eight plays, compared to 53 plays in the first three quarters).

Actually, the offense which drops off the most in the fourth quarter is Miami, which is slightly above average for three quarters and then the worst offense in the league in the fourth quarter. Apparently, the Dolphins take their foot off the gas even when they are losing the race. And of course, we know which team improves the most in the fourth quarter.

TEAM Q1-3 OFF RK Q4 OFF RK DIF MIA 7.1% 14 -38.4% 32 -45.5% PIT 28.8% 4 -16.0% 27 -44.8% HOU 25.7% 5 -4.2% 24 -29.9% CHI -2.3% 21 -25.5% 29 -23.2% NE 41.0% 1 19.1% 8 -21.9% SD 19.7% 7 -0.7% 19 -20.5% STL -22.1% 31 -36.9% 31 -14.9% CIN 9.0% 10 -3.4% 23 -12.4% KC -16.0% 29 -26.6% 30 -10.6% GB 37.2% 2 26.9% 3 -10.4% BAL 10.8% 8 4.5% 14 -6.3% BUF 6.6% 15 0.6% 17 -6.0% OAK 2.8% 18 -1.7% 20 -4.5% DET 7.2% 13 3.3% 16 -3.8% ATL 10.1% 9 7.0% 13 -3.1% WAS -8.5% 24 -10.4% 26 -1.8% TEAM Q1-3 OFF RK Q4 OFF RK DIF SF -2.0% 20 -3.2% 22 -1.2% CAR 19.8% 6 19.6% 7 -0.2% MIN -2.5% 22 -1.8% 21 0.7% JAC -22.1% 32 -19.0% 28 3.1% PHI 6.3% 16 9.6% 11 3.3% NO 32.4% 3 37.2% 1 4.9% IND -15.7% 28 -9.9% 25 5.8% CLE -9.9% 25 -0.1% 18 9.8% DAL 8.8% 12 19.8% 6 11.0% TEN 4.6% 17 18.9% 9 14.3% TB -8.3% 23 7.6% 12 15.9% NYG 8.9% 11 30.2% 2 21.3% NYJ 0.7% 19 23.5% 4 22.8% ARI -19.9% 30 3.8% 15 23.7% SEA -12.6% 26 13.7% 10 26.2% DEN -12.9% 27 22.8% 5 35.6%

Actually, Green Bay seems to take its foot off the gas more on defense; its defense would rank 17th if we didn't include the fourth quarter. But San Francisco and New England see their defensive DVOA ratings decline even more in the fourth quarter than Green Bay's.

TEAM Q1-3 DEF RK Q4 DEF RK DIF CAR 9.1% 24 42.7% 32 33.6% SF -20.9% 2 9.9% 20 30.8% PHI -3.0% 10 23.8% 29 26.8% NE 8.0% 21 32.9% 31 24.9% NYG 4.4% 16 28.0% 30 23.6% MIA -5.6% 8 15.8% 23 21.4% SD 8.6% 22 21.8% 28 13.2% GB 5.7% 17 17.7% 25 12.1% MIN 8.8% 23 20.2% 26 11.3% DET -10.1% 5 -1.9% 13 8.3% WAS -0.6% 12 7.2% 17 7.8% ARI 6.7% 18 14.2% 22 7.5% BUF 13.1% 29 20.4% 27 7.2% DAL 1.6% 13 8.8% 19 7.1% HOU -10.0% 6 -3.8% 11 6.2% BAL -22.2% 1 -18.0% 2 4.2% TEAM Q1-3 DEF RK Q4 DEF RK DIF TB 13.0% 28 16.1% 24 3.1% NYJ -12.9% 3 -10.5% 8 2.5% OAK 7.0% 19 7.5% 18 0.5% JAC -10.6% 4 -11.6% 7 -1.0% TEN 2.4% 15 -0.4% 15 -2.8% NO 17.6% 31 12.7% 21 -4.9% STL 11.4% 27 5.0% 16 -6.4% DEN 7.1% 20 -1.2% 14 -8.4% CHI -7.1% 7 -16.9% 4 -9.8% SEA 2.2% 14 -10.5% 9 -12.7% PIT -0.8% 11 -17.6% 3 -16.8% CLE 13.8% 30 -4.8% 10 -18.6% ATL -3.1% 9 -22.6% 1 -19.5% KC 10.7% 26 -13.9% 6 -24.6% CIN 10.5% 25 -15.9% 5 -26.4% IND 25.1% 32 -2.1% 12 -27.1%

Here is what the overall ratings would look like if we just included the first three quarters -- except in special teams, where frankly I'm too lazy right now to go do a whole new set of "first three quarters" special teams ratings.