This post is part of our Guide to Bayesian Statistics and is a chapter in the book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way!

One of the most memorable errors in statistical analysis is a scene from The Empire Strikes Back! Han Solo, attempting to evade enemy fighters, flies the Millennium Falcon into an asteroid field. The ever knowledgeable C3PO informs Solo that probability is not on his side:

C3PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1!

Han: Never tell me the odds!

Here's the scene for those who haven't seen it or may have forgotten.

Superficially this is just a fun movie dismissing "boring" data analysis, but there's actually an interesting dilemma here. Even the first time you watch Empire you know that Han can pull it off. But, despite deeply believing that Han will make it through, is C3PO's analysis wrong? Clearly Han believes it's dangerous, "They'd have to be crazy to follow us." None of the pursuing tie fighters make it through, which provides pretty strong evidence that C3PO's numbers are not off. So what are we missing?