On July 7th, 2020 Jair Bolsonaro, president of Brazil, announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19. Jair Bolsonaro, who had long downplayed the effects of COVID-19, and has often refused to wear masks, has led one of the most disastrous attempts in the world to combat COVID-19. Bolsonaro might want COVID-19 to magically dissapear, but this grants neither Brazil nor Bolsonaro protection from disease. Brazil has so far recorded 1.8 million cases of COVID-19, and has recorded 70,000 deaths. However, Brazil has only conducted 4.5 million tests, on a per capita level lower than testing levels in Palestine or Nepal. Nearly one third of all COVID-19 tests have been positive, suggesting dramatic undercounts in the number of cases and deaths. Worse, the Brazilian government is actively hampering the accurate collection of data, with the government attempting to discontinue publishing cumulative counts of COVID-19 cases. Although the Supreme Court stopped such actions, it is likely the government is taking other steps to mask the true number of COVID cases. Nevertheless, more people have died from COVID-19 over the last week than in any other country in the world. Despite all of this, Jair Bolsonaro, has time and time again called for Brazil to re-open the economy, the cost in human life be damned.



Unsurprisingly, the failures of the government response have made Jair Bolsonaro exceedingly unpopular among ordinary people. Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have fallen to 32% since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. Bolsonaro has found himself politically isolated. An alliance of state governors of all ideological stripes have attempted to impose lockdown policies. Bolsobaro has lashed out against the supreme court because it is currently investigating Bolsonaro and his family on charges of illegally interfering with the appointment of police and holding rallies that undermined democratic values, charges that may form the base of impeachment procedings. Congress has attempted to govern in the absence of leadership from the president, and his alliance with centrist parties necessary to govern is falling apart. The shambolic governance of Brazil is epitomized by Bolsonaro’s decision to fire two Ministers of Health for being too worried about COVID-19. Bolsonaro, a former captain in the Brazilian army, has decided to rely upon the military for support. One third of his cabinet have served in the military, and his current vice president is a retired general. Moreover, Bolsonaro has rallied his far right base to call for a military coup to wave aside all those standing in Bolsonaro and his desire to open the economy unconditionally. Although fears of a military coup are largely overblown, Bolsonaro’s misrule is causing long lasting damage to Brazil’s democratic foundations.



Brazil is currently facing an economic crisis just as severe as its political crisis. The World Bank is currently projecting the Brazilian economy to shrink by 8% in 2020, and for the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 to reduce Brazilian GDP by 10.2%. The economic crisis is coming just as Brazil is recovering from a severe recession in 2015 and 2016. Brazil is an overwhelmingly poor country, with 20% of the population surviving on less than $5.50 a day. 41% of Brazilians work in the informal sector, where it is all but impossible to work remotely, and individuals receive no income if they do not work. People will starve if they are not allowed to return to work. At the same time, Brazil is facing a fiscal crisis. Federal tax revenues have plunged 29%, while the states worst hit by COVID-19 seeing even steeper declines. At the same time, borrowing from abroad is complicated by massive capital flight. Neither the state or the national government has the ability to fund the massive social support necessary to make it feasible for ordinary Brazilians to stay home without facing extreme deprivation. As a result states, including Rio De Janeiro and Sao Paulo, have reopened their economies even as COVID-19 rages as badly as before. While many of these problems are beyond the scope of Bolsonaro’s power, his unerring ability to make everything worse, means that Brazil is navigating the crisis with some of the worst leadership in the world.