Will the Houston Rockets get off their treadmill this season, or are they doomed to another so-so year?

Last Season’s Record: 41-41

Players Added: Ryan Anderson, Bobby Brown, Eric Gordon, Nene, Pablo Prigioni

Players Lost: Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, Josh Smith, Jason Terry

Rookies: Chinanu Onuaku, Gary Payton II, Isaiah Taylor, Kyle Wiltjer

Coaching Changes: Mike D’Antoni takes over as head coach from interim J.B Bickerstaff.

2016-2017 Record Prediction: 43-39

Team Ratings: 108.3 ORtg (8th in NBA), 108.1 DRtg (21st in NBA)

Ending their 2015 campaign with a Western Conference Finals appearance, the Rockets looked set to build on that success and contend in 2016, however, their season took an unexpected turn. Instead of contending, the Rockets just barely made it to the playoffs. The main reason for their regression is a marked drop in team defense. They dropped from the 8th best DRtg to the 21st best DRtg. Additionally, the complete breakdown of Ty Lawson’s game left the Rockets with one reliable shot creator, James Harden. James clocked in an astounding 3125 minutes and was the league leader in minutes played by almost 232 minutes, the equivalent of playing almost five extra games.

This heavy offensive burden did not go unnoticed to fans and Rockets personnel alike as Rockets owner Leslie Alexander had this to say about Harden, “Let me just chime in for a second. The guy played 42 minutes, 43 minutes a game. He had to carry the team offensively. There were guys who couldn’t shoot the ball many times, OK? He was it.” For fans, however, Harden’s burden came to light in his defensive efforts, where he became the subject of much mockery.

Luckily for Harden, this new Rockets’ offense shapes up to be completely different. The addition of Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, two efficient offensive players who surpass the losses of Terrence Jones, Josh Smith, and Jason Terry, will relieve the offensive burden. Furthermore, new Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni is widely regarded as an offensive guru who will help cultivate an increasingly efficient, varied offense.

Houston’s defense, however, is already being called into question. The exit of rim protector Dwight Howard immediately weakens the Rockets’ defense. Last season, just Howard’s presence on the floor lowered opponent’s field goal attempts at the rim by 3.6 field goals on average. His rim protection duties will be passed on to Clint Capela. Clint just finished his first full season with the Rockets, playing 19.1 minutes per game. In his time in the NBA and D-League, Capela has shown both remarkable defensive capability and potential. Standing at 6’11” with a massive 7’5” wingspan, Clint has the necessary physical tools to be a strong rim protector. Much of his rookie season, in 2015, was spent with the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, the Rockets D-League affiliate, where he was named to the All-Defensive First team.

Starting next to a defensive sieve in Ryan Anderson, Capela’s awareness and help defense will need to be elite to prevent the Rockets from being exploited in the paint. The Rockets perimeter defenders Ariza and Beverley will help lessen the load on him, but if James Harden maintains his poor defensive play, Clint will have another defensive hole to patch up. Clint’s age and inexperience indicate that this will be a period of development for both him and the Rockets, it will be accompanied by growing pains.

These defensive growing pains are what I expect to hold the Rockets back. The individual excellence of James Harden assures that Houston will have a top 10 offense, but without a strong team defense, Houston will remain at the fringes of the playoffs.