InsiderAdvantage/Fox5/Morris News “SuperPoll”; Deal Leading Carter 47%-to-40%; Obama Approval at 41%

An InsiderAdvantage “SuperPoll” of 1,349 registered likely voters in the November race for governor of Georgia shows Nathan Deal building a lead in the contest, and also shows President Obama’s approval rating in Georgia mirroring his rating nationally. The poll of telephone and online respondents was conducted with our research partners OpinionSavvy June 24-25. It is weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7% Crosstabs at the bottom of the page.

In the race for governor, the results were:

Nathan Deal: 47%

Jason Carter: 40%

Andrew Hunt: 3%

Undecided: 10%

President Obama’s job performance rating in Georgia:

Approve 41%

Disapprove: 58%

Undecided: 1%

InsiderAdvantage/Fox5 Political Analyst Matt Towery:

“Governor Deal was at one point earlier this year in rather deep trouble in his race against Carter. We were the first pollster to show Carter actually leading Deal earlier in the year. As I have noted before, that was mainly due to the disastrous state response to the snowstorm of last winter.

“But Carter’s camp has chosen to concentrate on rather bland introductory TV commercials that are actually losing him points in the contest. The Carter effort has turned into a typical campaign for a Democratic nominee which, if it continues, will consolidate Deal’s lead and make it extremely difficult for Carter to gain traction with attack ads later in the campaign.

“Carter’s problems don’t end with a poor campaign strategy. Both he and Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, Michelle Nunn, are saddled with an immensely unpopular Democratic President Obama as their party mate. Nunn will have a greater difficulty distancing herself from Obama, given that the issues in her race are federal and relate directly to the president. However, Carter’s failure to take on Deal’s weaknesses straight out of the gate, combined with the unpopularity of the president, might spell doom for his effort too.

“Losing ground in the polls while running advertising is a very bad sign. The best Carter could likely hope for would be to keep Governor Deal under 50% (plus one vote), as required to win, and force him into a winter runoff. But looking at Carter’s lack of success in currents ads and strategic blunders on major votes during the last legislative session, it seems unlikely right now to imagine the Carter campaign pulling off such a scenario,” said Towery. More at www.insideradvantage.com

IA Fox Morris June Gov. poll crosstabs