Ted Cruz is the first Republican presidential candidate out of the starting gate, but GOP insiders in Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly skeptical of the first-term Texas senator’s chances of being the eventual nominee or succeeding in the general election.

This week’s survey of The POLITICO Caucus — a bipartisan group of key activists, operatives and thought leaders in New Hampshire and Iowa — reveals grave concerns about Cruz’s electability. And after eight years in the wilderness, most Republicans want a nominee who can win.


Not one of the 100 respondents believes that Cruz would win the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary if they took place this week, though there is widespread agreement that he is much better positioned in the Hawkeye State than the Granite State. And nine out of 10 Republican insiders in the early states believe Ted Cruz couldn’t carry their state — both Iowa and New Hampshire are swing states, though relatively small electoral-vote prizes — against Hillary Clinton in the general.

Launching his candidacy on Monday at Liberty University in Virginia, the senator tailored his roll-out toward the evangelicals who powered Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee’s victories in the past two Iowa caucuses. But most insiders believe Cruz will ultimately pose the biggest problem for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who will kick off his own campaign on April 7.

“Announcing first is an advantage in that he was able to fill a news vacuum for a few days,” said an uncommitted New Hampshire Republican, who — like everyone else — completed the questionnaire anonymously in order to speak candidly. “He’s a tremendous orator with great stage presence … However, he’s still Ted Cruz — a polarizing person who is more interested in making headlines than making policy.”

Here are six takeaways from this week’s edition of The POLITICO Caucus:

Cruz is a deeply polarizing figure — among Republicans.

Most GOP insiders believe that Cruz’s push to defund Obamacare — which made him a household name and led to a federal government shutdown in October 2013 — is more a negative than a positive.

“The shutdown made him infamous to most and loved by a vocal few,” said a New Hampshire Republican.

“His supporters see his fight as a badge of honor,” said an Iowa Republican. “Undecided caucusgoers will likely see his shutdown strategy as a major blunder.”

The senator’s outspokenness makes him the “fighter” in the 2016 field, several said, but they fear it will sour independents from ever backing him down the road.

“His fighter mentality will play well with conservative activists and those who listen to talk radio,” said an Iowa Republican, “but it’s not like he has scored any real accomplishment on rolling back the Affordable Care Act.”

“Ted Cruz has a legislative record that has no positive accomplishments,” said another. “He will be in a field with many people that can point to positive accomplishments, either as governors or senators.”

“He is the reason Democrats can call Republicans ‘the Party of No,’” said a third Republican.

“He has become a poster child for congressional dysfunction,” said a fourth.

Pressed by Fox News’ Megyn Kelly this week on what he’s accomplished as a senator, Cruz argued that he has not been a backbencher in the Senate. “What I’ve tried to do is lead on the great challenges of the day,” he said, “whether it’s stopping Obamacare or stopping the out-of-control debt, or stopping executive amnesty or defending our constitutional rights or standing with Israel, or stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons.”

Those who see Cruz’s crusade against Obamacare positively say that he showed the courage of his convictions and can’t be portrayed as a typical D.C. politician.

“Doing the right thing, even if you don’t succeed, will win you points,” said a New Hampshire Republican.

“The intelligentsia is annoyed, but real people are hungry for it,” said another.

An Iowa Republican noted that Cruz “repelled many” but “propelled his base to actively proselytize.” Another explained that Obamacare remains toxic among caucusgoers: “Someone who bravely and with clarity speaks out against it will gain much.”

But one New Hampshire Republican noted that Cruz was the only likely 2016 candidate with whom local GOP candidates did not want to appear in the run-up to last fall’s midterm elections. The 44-year-old did just one campaign swing through New Hampshire, for congressional candidate Marilinda Garcia.

Ted Cruz’s lousy caucus numbers

Cruz’s visit in the days before the GOP primary in the state’s Second Congressional District — the more Democratic of New Hampshire’s two seats — helped propel Garcia to the nomination. But the Republican says it hurt Garcia in the general election against Democratic Rep. Ann McLane Kuster.

“The Democrats promptly used the trip in ads and used Cruz as a vehicle to successfully drive home the ‘extreme’ narrative against Garcia,” this Republican said. “It was a net loss to be seen alongside Cruz in 2014. His name and reputation are both toxic.”

Cruz has a much better shot of winning Iowa’s caucuses than New Hampshire’s primary.

Nearly two-thirds of Iowa Republican insiders believe Cruz can win the caucuses, compared to just 14 percent of New Hampshire Republicans who said Cruz could win the New Hampshire primary.

Iowans of both parties mostly agree on what the Cruz path to victory there looks like. As one Republican put it, “First, consolidate the evangelical right along with portions of the Liberty movement who think Rand’s too wishy-washy and, second, excel in the debates.”

“He will need to be the last conservative standing,” said another. “In 2012, Santorum won the Iowa caucuses because he was the last conservative to catch fire. If Scott Walker, Santorum, Huckabee, etc. don’t have staying power, and Cruz can manage to light a fire, then he can win.”

A third Republican thinks its unlikely but possible that Cruz wins the caucuses: “He’d have to grab a clear majority of evangelicals, sweep the hawkish, non-libertarian tea partiers, and hope the congestion in the race occurs in the establishment lane of [Marco] Rubio, Walker, [Jeb] Bush and [Chris] Christie.”

The most common suggestion for Cruz is that he should focus on Iowa as much as possible. “He really needs to live in the state of Iowa,” said a fourth Republican, “so much that he knows that the chicken is way better than the pizza at Pizza Ranch.”

Only eight insiders in New Hampshire said Cruz could win the Republican primary, and all but two of them mentioned Pat Buchanan as a reason why. If the controversial former aide to Richard Nixon could upset Bob Dole in 1996, they argue, Cruz certainly could beat a favorite of the establishment.

“It’s very unlikely, but yes, it’s possible if the mainstream vote splinters, he consolidates the tea party/hard right vote (say, 25 percent of the total), and he times it perfectly,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “That is what Buchanan pulled off in 1996. But if he’s a threat to win two weeks out, a ‘Stop Cruz’ movement will kick in.”

A handful of people who said Cruz could not win in New Hampshire volunteered, with no prompting, that the state has changed a lot in the 20 years since Buchanan won there. Some noted there are not enough religious conservatives in the Granite State to sustain Cruz, and others pointed to the state’s open primary as a reason the Texan won’t win there.

“Long gone are the days of the mid 90s of Pat Buchanan dominating the GOP presidential primary,” said a Republican. “In New Hampshire, independent voters outnumber Republicans or Democrats, and they can vote in either primary.”

“Assuming no credible challenger emerges to Hillary Clinton, independents will decide this thing, and they’re going to want to make their vote count and pull a GOP ballot,” said another.

“Not going to happen,” said a third New Hampshire Republican. “No way, no how.”

Paul is hurt the most by Cruz’s presence in the field.

Asked from which candidate Cruz draws most, twice as many insiders chose Paul over anyone else. Huckabee and Santorum were tied for second, since the Texan will work to win over social conservatives. Rick Perry, because he’s from Texas, and Scott Walker, because some think it’s a race between Jeb Bush and one leading alternative, tied for fourth.

“Ted Cruz’s path to victory is for Rand Paul not to run,” said an Iowa Republican. “That being said, three supporters of Ron Paul have endorsed Cruz.”

“If Rand stumbles as the champion of the liberty voters, and Cruz excels with the social conservatives and becomes the winner of that micro-contest, he has a pathway to cobble together a finish in the high 20s, which could theoretically win the Iowa caucuses,” said a second.

A New Hampshire Republican thinks Cruz won’t ever win the primary but might become a spoiler. If he prevailed in Iowa, perhaps he’d get a 7-to-10-point bounce in the polls. Much of that would come from Paul, and that could keep the Kentuckian from winning New Hampshire.

“He loses to Cruz on charisma and passion,” another Granite Stater said of Paul.

Enrolling in Obamacare has not conveyed the message Cruz hoped.

Cruz told the Des Moines Register this week that he would “presumably” sign up for insurance through the federal health care exchange after his wife took a leave from her job at Goldman Sachs, which set off a firestorm. Democrats charge hypocrisy; Republicans wonder why he wouldn’t buy private insurance or use a COBRA plan. Cruz said he would not take federal subsidies, but now his aides say he is still exploring all of his options.

Several Republicans wondered aloud about the backstory behind this tactic. “The Cruz campaign should have seen that coming and been prepared,” said one GOPer in New Hampshire. “The stagecraft and timing of the announcement was top notch; the handling of the Obamacare enrollment was worse than amateurish.”

An Iowa Republican said Cruz’s fight to repeal the law is positive: “But it is quickly outweighed by his decision to go on the exchange to enroll in Obamacare. It is the height of irony. But I’m sure he’ll wear it like a badge of honor.”

Democrats cite Cruz’s announcement as proof that health insurance is more affordable on the Obamacare exchanges than outside of them. Many argue that it damages his credibility.

“New Hampshire has experienced a high ACA enrollment rate, and while a majority of New Hampshire citizens were frustrated by the rollout, those who now have health care coverage do not want to see it taken away,” said a Democrat. “The real question is: What would Ted Cruz do to address the issue? Saying no or taking funding away is not a solution.”

Most early-state Democrats want Hillary to back up Obama on Israel.

The Obama administration has been harshly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in the week since he won reelection. Unsurprisingly, 90 percent of Republicans think Hillary Clinton should distance herself from the White House on the issue. But two-thirds of Iowa Democrats and four-fifths of New Hampshire Democrats think the former secretary of state should stand firm with the president.

There is deep frustration on the left with Netanyahu, most recently over the way he used fear-mongering about Arab turnout to gin up conservative voters with an Election Day video.

“Netanyahu was the one who decided to politicize U.S.-Israel geopolitics for his own domestic political gain (or accepted John Boehner’s offer to do so),” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “I can see no upside for Hillary or any Democrat in fostering a relationship with Bibi. He clearly can’t be trusted.”

“She has to stand with Obama on this because he is right, and also because Netanyahu has shown himself to be a classically shifty politician who just says what he needs to be elected,” said a second.

“Very tricky issue here,” said a third, “but from a purely domestic political standpoint: As long as there is clamor for Warren or someone else in liberal base world, she needs to hem as close to President Obama as possible.”

While supporting Israel under any circumstances is a priority for some key Democratic donors, early state insiders say that the issue does not pack as much of a punch at the grassroots level.

“Most Iowans have never heard of AIPAC,” said a Democrat there. “Israel is not an issue that motivates many Iowa Democrats or Republicans.”

“She should not wade into the fray at all,” said another. “This is Obama’s story. It will fade, and then she can write her own story.”

“I feel we’ve finally hit a watershed moment in American politics where, at least on the Democratic side, it will be acceptable, even advantageous, to say no to Israel,” said a third.

A few Democrats think she should publicly disagree with Obama. “She needs to find ways to separate herself from Obama; this is a natural one given her background,” said an Iowan. “She needs to be proactive, not reactive,” said another.

And some Democratic activists urged Clinton to just say whatever she really thinks, rather than thinking through how various stakeholders might respond. “You might be surprised how much voters will like such refreshing behavior,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

Seven in 10 Democrats don’t think Joe Biden would have a shot if he challenged Hillary.

Clinton is poised to enter the race soon, and she still appears unstoppable in her quest for the Democratic nod. But chatter continues about who might be credible enough to create a real race.

The vast majority of Democratic insiders, including most of those uneasy with Clinton, do not think Vice President Joe Biden is the man to do it. “The belief that Vice President Biden can’t beat Secretary Clinton is already baked in here among activists,” said an Iowan. “He has a small and loyal corps of support, but the unaligned Democratic activists in Iowa will break for Clinton or, possibly, a fresh face.”

“Vice President Biden is extremely well liked by Iowa Democrats,” said another. “There is no excitement around him though, it is a struggle to build crowds for him, and he is viewed as a great leader, but not the standard bearer to lead the party forward.”

“I would like to see Joe Biden exit the stage with dignity, not getting crushed by Hillary Clinton in the caucuses,” said a third.

A New Hampshire Democrat said the fondness for Biden is authentic, but that his Senate voting record — especially with respect to Wall Street, credit card companies and bankruptcy “reform” — won’t galvanize progressives.

“He would have real issues appealing to the 30 percent constituting the left wing of the party, the wing that is more likely to vote for someone other than Hillary Clinton,” said the Democrat. “So I don’t see where he gets his votes from.”

Clinton’s ability to break the ultimate glass ceiling also insulates her from another stiff challenge.

“Activists and core Dems are ready for a woman, or at least the right woman,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “Much as I love Biden, he is now past his prime in electoral terms.”

Biden finished fifth in the 2008 Iowa caucuses with just 1 percent. He withdrew before New Hampshire, but his name remained on the ballot: He got a total of 638 votes, or 0.22 percent.

But that was eight years ago. “He’s the sitting vice president and is well liked in Iowa,” said a Democrat there. “And you can’t win if you don’t play!”

“People forget that liberals will only vote in the New Hampshire Democratic primary — independents are likely to vote GOP — so if Biden embraced the left lane and became Populist Uncle Joe, then yes, he would have a legitimate shot … albeit as an underdog,” said a Democrat there.

“It’s certainly a hell of a bank shot,” said another Granite State Democrat, “but he’s got to be taken seriously.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.