NFL DFS Bargain Bin: CINCINNATI, OH - AUGUST 09: Joe Mixon #28 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs into the end zone for a 24-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter of a preseason game against the Chicago Bears at Paul Brown Stadium on August 9, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

The goal of this series is to arm you with enough information for you to confidently decide between two players with similar PPR ADP’s. Today in our Fantasy Football Debate, we break down Jerick McKinnon vs Joe Mixon.

You’ve made your 1st selection in the draft. The 2nd round is taking shape rapidly. You’ll be up soon. It’s all good. No worries, right? You want a back there’s 4 guys on your radar. Jordan Howard, Christian McCaffrey, Jerick McKinnon and Joe Mixon. Just two picks until you’re up, hopefully one of these guys in front of you does you a favor and drafts a QB.

Fast forward 39 seconds…in rapid fire succession Jo-Ho and CMC are gone. What happened? Everything was all good just a minute ago. All of a sudden your confidence has morphed into apprehension. Your visions of McCaffrey catching a hundred balls or Howard toting the rock 20+ times a week late in the season turned out to simply be pipe dreams. What are you gonna do? You are on the clock!

Jerick McKinnon and Joe Mixon are the next two RB’s on your board. Do you know enough about these two to confidently choose between them? If you aren’t in any dynasty leagues chances are you have a lot of question marks about these two guys.

You know Mixon is the lead back in Cincy. You know he’s talented. Was his rookie season an accurate depiction of what type of player he is? Are the Bengals any good? You know the 9ers paid Jerick McKinnon RB1 money. You know that he’s a great pass catcher. Can he shoulder the load as the lead back in San Fran? Is he even big enough to? All valid questions. No worries. I got your back.

Fantasy Football Debate – The Case for Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon. Who is he? Above all else Jerick McKinnon is an amazing athlete. At Georgia Southern he started games at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and corner back. If you are a college football fan you may remember McKinnon rushing for over a hundred yards in a game when Georgia Southern beat Florida 26-20 in 2013. McKinnon’s touchdown in the final minutes of the game was the nail in the coffin. That game marked the first time the Gators ever lost to a lower division team. McKinnon finished his college career with over 4000 all-purpose yards and 42 touchdowns. While playing corner he picked off 2 passes to add to his legend at GS.

McKinnon or “Jet” as teammates call him put on a show at the combine. His 4.35 and 4.38 unofficial times in the 40 proved his nickname was for real. Those numbers are impressive but not as impressive as the 32 reps he put up while bench pressing. A record among RB’s that stands to this day. To put that feat into perspective, Saquon Barkley finished with 29 reps. The average was 17 reps among RB’s. Prior to my research for this article I had no clue McKinnon had this type of strength to go along with his elite speed. The Vikings liked what they saw and drafted McKinnon in the 3rd round of the 2014 NFL draft.

Two years into his career McKinnon averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 165 attempts. He caught 20+ balls both seasons. His rushing efficiency dropped in 2016 behind a banged up, make shift Minnesota offensive line. He came close to equaling his career total in attempts and receptions with 159 and 43 respectively but his yards per carry dropped to just 3.4.

He didn’t do enough in the eyes of the Vikings brass. In the off-season they signed Latavius Murray and traded up to draft Dalvin Cook out of Florida St. in the 2nd round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

Dalvin Cook won the job as a rookie and came out of the gate on fire. After 74 carries over the course 14 quarters Dalvin Cook amassed 354 yards and scored twice. Unfortunately his season was cut short when he tore his ACL in the 3rd quarter of a week 4 game against the Lions.

Once again Jet was called on to assume a bigger role in the offense than was expected of him heading into the season. A situation he was familiar with. He finished the season with his 2nd straight 150+ carry season. Once again he failed to average over 4 yards per carry. He finished averaging 3.8, a number consistent with teammate Latavius Murray who averaged 3.9 yards per carry on his team leading 216 carries.

Jet did not disappoint in the passing game. In fact he excelled. When the season was over and the final numbers were tallied McKinnon was on the field for less than 50% of all Viking RB snaps yet he still finished with 51 catches. His 114 receiving yards in week 14 were good enough to rank 3rd among RB single games in 2017. Only Gurley’s 158 and Chris Thompson‘s 150 were better.

What McKinnon did in 2017 on the surface will not WOW you. Less than 1000 combined rushing and receiving yards. Just 5 total touchdowns. Less than 4 yards per carry on 151 attempts. Nothing special, right? When you dig a little deeper, consider the issues with Minnesota’s offensive line, consider his efficiency as a pass catcher and take into account the rare combination of speed and strength he offers, Jerick McKinnon in a Kyle Shanahan offense is an exciting prospect.

Obviously I didn’t mention Shanahan for no reason. If you made it this far then you’re savvy enough to already know McKinnon is no longer a Viking. He’s a 49er. I honestly can’t think of a better situation for him to have landed.

The 9ers let Carlos Hyde (last year’s RB11) pursue free agency. He signed with Cleveland. The 9ers also did not address the RB position in the draft. McKinnon joins Matt Breida and recently acquired former Shanahan lead back Alfred Morris to form the most likely trio of RB’s San Francisco will break camp with. The Morris signing is due to question marks surrounding Breida. I don’t think he poses a threat to McKinnon’s work load.

Kyle Shanahan’s track record with running backs should have more people talking about him as an offensive mastermind. Shanahan’s last 3 seasons have produced the RB11 (Carlos Hyde), RB6 and RB1(Devonta Freeman). His tenure in Atlanta turned Tevin Coleman and Freeman into a nasty backfield duo behind Matt Ryan who had a career year under Shanahan in 2015. Previous to his time in Atlanta he designed a Redskin offense that turned 6th round pick Alfred Morris into a 1600+ yard back and made pre-injury RGIII nearly unstoppable. Going back even further some of Arian Foster‘s best seasons were when Shanahan was his O.C. in Houston. If there’s a coach who consistently gets the absolute best out of his RB’s it’s Kyle Shanahan.

Fantasy Football Debate – The Case for Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon enters his 2nd season as 21-year-old with a laundry list of question marks to go with his equally long list of physical attributes. If you play dynasty football you’re well aware of Joe Mixon’s potential. If you don’t, Mixon is most likely a player that unless you’re a Bengals fan, you didn’t see too much of last season. That’s OK, I got you.

Joe Mixon draws a lot of comparisons to Le’Veon Bell. Both guys are 6’1″, both weigh around 225 pounds and both have great hands. They also share a tweener body type that looks like a mix between a running back and a wide receiver.

Mixon finished 2017 as the RB30. He played in 14 games where he totaled 626 yards and 4 touchdowns on 178 carries. That boils down to an unimpressive 3.5 yards per carry. More concerning realities from Mixon’s 2016 campaign were his lack of breakaway runs. Mixon had just two runs of 20+ yards and only 5 carries of 15 yards or more. Father time, Frank Gore had 7 runs of 15+ for comparison.

In the passing game he was targeted 34 times. He caught 30 of those targets. His 88% catch rate was good enough to rank him 2nd among RB’s with at least 30 catches. Dion Lewis led the league with a 91% catch rate.

The Bengal offensive line was not good in 2016. They ranked among the league’s worst. In an attempt to improve in 2018 they traded with the Bills for left tackle Cordy Glenn. Glenn, who’s been plagued with injury will be an improvement if he can stay on the field. A healthy Tyler Eiffert will provide a much-needed run blocking boost from the TE position.

Cincy didn’t stop there. In the draft they killed 2 birds with 1 stone when they drafted Billy Price in the 1st round. Price should step in and be an immediate upgrade at center. The fact that he played college ball at Ohio St. will make Price a fan favorite and put more butts in the seats. Getting butts in the Paul Brown Stadium seats as of late seems to be more important than winning in Cincy. At least that’s what my die-hard Bengal fan/ childhood friend believes and I don’t think he’s alone.

By now I think it’s safe to say the Marvin Lewis experiment has run its course, drove back to the starting line then ran its course again with the Bengals. Never the less, Coach Lewis’ last 1000 yard back was “The Lawfirm” Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Green-Ellis rushed for 1094 yards in 2012. Needless to say Bengal fans have high hopes for Mixon to end that five year drought.

Jeremy Hill is gone. He’s in New England. This is the best possible scenario for Mixon. Hill’s departure open’s up the backfield for Mixon. Mixon stands to command the bulk of the carries in 2018 and all the goal line work. As a fantasy owner, that’s great news. More touches = more points.

A good Mixon sample to pull from is weeks 8-12 last season. Hill went down with an injury and the Mixon show began. Over that 5 week span Mixon averaged 16 touches per game. Thats 3 touches higher per game than he was averaging when Hill was healthy. He didn’t necessarily silence the critics during those 5 games but he flashed in some spots and proved he could shoulder the load.

Gio Bernard and Mark Walton are the backs that will spell Mixon and steal some 3rd down opportunities from him. Bernard and Walton are very similar backs. Neither one projects to affect Mixon’s touches on 1st and 2nd down. Knowing what we know about Mixon’s prowess in the passing game he should be the team’s #1 option on 3rd down as well.

That makes Joe Mixon a 3 down back. We all know the value that distinction holds in fantasy football. Again, more touches = more points.

Fantasy Football Debate – The Verdict

I gotta admit when I went into researching for this article I was completely on the Joe Mixon train. The more I read about McKinnon the more I liked him. Unlike my prior Fantasy Football Debate articles where I was confident that either choice would live up to their ADP I’m not as sure about this one. Both players have amazing athleticism and potential. Put either one of these guys behind Philly’s offensive line and I think they both put up RB1 numbers.

That leads to the comparison of offensive lines. Cincy vs San Fran. Advantage San Fran. The Bengals did make moves to improve their O-line but what they did doesn’t match what the 49ers, who already had the better line did.

Like the Bengals the 9ers leveled up their line through free agency and the draft. They added an upgrade at center in Weston Richburg who played for the Giants last season. In the draft they selected a mountain of a man. 6’8″, Mike McGlinchey out of Notre Dame. Shanahan looks for both players to make an immediate improvement on the O-line.

Maybe the most convincing factor regarding who you should choose here is the man himself, the RB whisperer, Kyle Shanahan. His track record with RB’s that he’s been around is undeniable. The guy has a knack for finding a way to maximize the position.

The 49ers reached out to Jerick McKinnon, brought him in and paid him well. He’s a big part of their plans this season. The injury he suffered in an early pre-season game turned out to be a calf sprain. He will be ready for opening kickoff. San Francisco is a rising team in the NFC with some exciting pieces in place. Taking that into consideration. Comparing their situation with the Bengals who are trending in the opposite direction or at the very least not much better or worse than their mediocre 2017. In a surprise victory I can confidently declare when faced with the choice between Joe Mixon and Jerick McKinnon.

Jerick McKinnon is the player you should draft.

Stay tuned for the next Fantasy Football Debate coming Thursday.