Paleologos on the poll: In a close election, the 'unfaves' will matter

David Paleologos | Special to USA TODAY

Democratic and Republican front-runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have broken above the 50% mark — but unfortunately for them, the 50% barrier is their personal unpopularity among general election voters.

Clinton’s unfavorable rating stands at 54%, while Trump’s is 60%, according to the Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll of likely general-election voters. If they become their party’s respective nominees, the poll tells us that a majority of the country’s voters does not see either candidate as acceptable, which means that the race for president may come down to which candidate voters view as the lesser of two evils.

Analysts will no doubt focus on the voter groups that typically swing an election — independents, moderates and voters in battleground states. But if Clinton and Trump are the nominees, the race may ultimately come down to the voters who dislike both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump (the “unfaves”) and yet still plan to vote next November.

The Suffolk University/USA TODAY survey identified 211 “unfaves” out of 1,000 respondents. They disliked both Clinton and Trump. While this group carries a higher margin of error (+/-6.75 percentage points versus +/-3 percentage points overall), it is the intersection of the Clinton 54% unfavorable and the Trump 60% unfavorable. This unique mix of voters prefer candidates such as Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush and Bernie Sanders. Their mantra is “ABCT” (Anybody but Clinton or Trump), and they all disdain the other party’s nominee and share a dissatisfaction with their own party’s front-runner.

Dig a little deeper into the crosstabs and you enter the land of micro-targeting bliss. When the “unfaves” were asked which candidate they disliked more — Clinton or Trump — 45% said they disliked Hillary Clinton more, 42% said Trump, and 13% were undecided.

This is particularly interesting given that these unfaves are disproportionately conservative, with 51% saying they would vote in a Republican primary, 18% in a Democratic primary, and 23% saying they would skip the primaries altogether. They are disproportionately Republican, because Trump is more disliked within his party (32% unfavorable among Republicans) than Clinton is within her party (14% unfavorable among Democrats). The result is a lot more people dislike both and will especially test Republican Party loyalty. Among independents, Clinton and Trump’s unfavorable ratings are nearly identical, hovering at 60%

If the unfaves are pushed to choose between Clinton and Trump, they choose Trump over Clinton 45% to 36%, with 14% undecided, breaking along party lines. But independent unfaves lean toward Trump 45% to 38%, with 9% undecided. Clearly too close to call.

This Trump-Clinton discussion is premature, as we are still eight weeks away from the Iowa caucuses and there is a chance that either or both may not make it through the nomination process. But the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of likely voters showed dominance for both Clinton and Trump.

Among the Democratic primary voters, Clinton led Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 56% to 29% while running up wider margins among key voting groups like women (62% to 19%), Southern Democratic primary voters (60% to 20%) and non-white voters (66% to 20%).

Trump’s lead among Republican primary voters was less commanding, but he’s still the clear front-runner and is forcing his GOP opponents into fighting among themselves as time passes. Trump (27%) led Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who had 17%, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., at 16%, while neurosurgeon Ben Carson had 10% and all other GOP contenders were in single digits.

When Clinton was pitted in head-to-head comparisons against Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson among the 1,000 likely general-election voters polled, all of the results were within the poll’s statistical margin of error: Clinton led Trump 48% to 44%, led Cruz 47% to 45%, led Carson 46% to 45% and trailed Rubio 48% to 45%. Bottom line: In a close election, these unfaves will matter.

If Trump were to make a third-party bid for the presidency, 68% of those who would vote for him in a Republican primary or caucus said that he would still get their vote as an independent, while 18% of Trump primary voters would not stick with him, and 11% were not sure. That scenario, however remote, is a huge problem for the Republican Party and could hand the White House keys to Clinton.

David Paleologos is director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.