Sydney's flag chances ballooned out to $11 only a couple of weeks ago, and they're still at a longer price than Hawthorn, West Coast or Fremantle. Only the desperately foolish won't be giving Sydney a decent shot of pulling off a finals upset when they take on Fremantle in Perth next week. For this is familiar turf indeed. Three times already in the 2000s, the Swans have managed to win qualifying finals on the road against heavily favoured opponents. They did it against Adelaide three years ago en route to a flag, against West Coast in 2006, and against Port Adelaide in 2003. But this is also about a lot more than hunches and history. It's about the Swans' very effective addressing of issues that only a month ago seemed destined to have them playing the role of finals also-ran. Sydney could manage only seven goals in each of those pummelings at the hands of Hawthorn and West Coast. A fortnight later, against Geelong, they kicked just nine. But the road to scoreboard redemption has been rapid and ominous.

The Swans' 20-goal tallies in each of their past two wins over Greater Western Sydney and St Kilda were by some margin their highest scores of the season. In round 17, against Adelaide, they booted 17. And it's where the goals are coming from that is no less significant. To be able to compete with the likes of the Hawks and Eagles, coach John Longmire simply had to make the Swans' forward set-up more multi-dimensional. He's managed to do so with some impact. After the round 17 loss in Perth, Sydney ranked a dismal 11th for points scored and an even more lowly 13th for number of individual goalkickers per game. In the five games since, the Swans have stood second for points scored and are outright leader for numbers of goalkickers, having averaged more than nine per game. The scoreboard impact statistic (both points scored and assisted) is a very good gauge here. After 17 rounds, Sydney had just four players – Lance Franklin, Kurt Tippett, Ben McGlynn and Isaac Heeney – averaging double figures for the statistic, and McGlynn and Heeney's numbers were based on small-game samples.

In the last five games, however, no fewer than 10 Swans have managed double-figure tallies. Franklin, leader for scoreboard impact over both periods, has a lower tally for rounds 18-22 than previously, but the more even contribution to the scoreboard now has Sam Reid and Jarrad McVeigh featuring prominently, while Kieren Jack and Tom Mitchell have both doubled their output. Sydney have cleaned up their efficiency in the forward 50, are clunking a lot more marks (their ranking having jumped from 11th to second) and are scoring a lot more points from forward line stoppages. In terms of player availability, things look a lot healthier, too. Franklin and Gary Rohan returned last week, McGlynn is a chance to play only his second senior game since round nine, and even Luke Parker, all but discounted after breaking his fibula, has his cast off and is an outside chance to play in week two of the finals. After what at times has been a difficult season, the planets appear to be aligning once again for the Swans. The question remains, though, why should we be surprised? It is September, after all, and when it comes to football in spring, Sydney is just another byword.