Welcome to Week 8 (5/22 to 5/28). It finally stopped raining in the Northeast, but the rainouts keep coming as storms hit the upper midwest and Southeast this week. As I am writing this Saturday night the Twins-Royals were rained out in Minnesota and the Cubs-Brewers were rained out in Chicago. The Cubs-Brewers pitchers were pushed back a day and the game rescheduled for July, so if you had starters for Sunday they probably are now pitching Monday. Good, if you have them next week as two-start pitchers but bad if you needed Sunday’s start. The Twins & Royals are doubling up tomorrow and all four pitchers originally scheduled for the weekend will get their starts, likely against watered down lineups (no pun). But that is not all, Washington at Atlanta is in a rain delay with Atlanta up 3-2 in the 6th. Those two starters are likely done for the night even if the game resumes. Like I said last week, rainouts and rain delays waste valuable starts. Rainouts wreak havoc on pitching plans and if you don’t keep up with them and make the necessary changes you will have a bad week.

Many leagues have limits on the number of starts a team can use in a scoring period, the number of transactions (add/drops) for the period, and the number of SP that can be on the healthy active roster at any given time. Some leagues charge transaction fees. I reference “wasting starts” because the rain-induced rotation movement may count toward your transaction and roster limits and may cost some extra money. The worst case scenario is having a starting pitcher on your roster that goes three or so innings before the game is delayed or canceled due to rain. That happened twice last week, and not only wastes a transaction but burns a useless start as well as the counting stats. Plus the pitcher will not come back until his next scheduled start five days later. All one can do is be sure to check in often to see how your particular teams are affected by weather and make whatever adjustments you can within the limits of the league. Summer will be here soon.

Another thing I talked about last week were the many pitchers that are either out for a while with serious injuries or rotating on the new 10-day DL treadmill with minor ones. Next week we should get back Ian Kennedy and possibly even David Price. This week we got back Rich Hill, Sean Manaea, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Sanchez. James Paxton and Brandon McCarthy should not be too far behind, but we will still be without the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels, and King Felix for the foreseeable future.

Pitchers seem to be dropping so fast that most leagues don’t have enough DL spots to accommodate them all. Roster limits force tough decisions which are a good thing for competitive league balance and owner skills, but this season is past capacity already. I think it is a combination of pitchers being more injury prone, but also the abundant use of the new in 2017 10 day DL rule that has MLB teams easing their own roster limitations at the expense of our fantasy limitations. In light of the 10 day DL rule, I recommend any owners who have 2 to 4 DL spots to petition the League Manager to increase the number of DL spots to whatever is appropriate for that format. Most good LM’s won’t change rules or settings once the season starts, and rightly so, but at least it will be in place for 2018. don’t feel victimized by the new rule. Fix it.

What to expect in 2017: (If you read this part in last week’s article, skip down to week 8.)

Criteria Used: Platoon splits, LH/RH, Day/Night, Month, Half, stadium splits, team batting against splits, metrics like GB/FB rate, K & BB rates, Babip, wOBA, FIP, Trends, etc. Sources are Fan Graphs, Baseball Reference, Fantrax, ESPN and more.

Pitchers from the under 50% ownership group – I’ll list three or four pitchers, less than 50% owned who I believe are primed for a good start the following week, or better yet two good starts. I will make my decisions based on matchups, splits, recent trends and my own gut, which is not a measurable stat but gets me by pretty well.

Not for the faint of heart, pitchers from the abyss- I’ll list two or so pitchers that are less than 20% owned and look like a good choice based on the above criterion.

DFS Ace to avoid – This is great for both DFS, Roto, and to some extent H2H leagues and points leagues. Just because a pitcher is on your roster does not mean you are required to put him out there in a bad match-up. I’ll bet the guy who won your league last season knew when to sit down his Ace. If you are a DFS fan, I don’t have to tell you what happens when the Ace you spent 20% of your budget on gets bombed in the 2nd inning.

Match-up of the Week: If I see a match up that is too good to pass up, I’ll present the starter and explain why he should be in your lineup.

WEEK EIGHT – May 22 through MAY 28, 2017: We are starting to see the call-ups start trickling in. Some are journeymen minor league starters who either have some MLB experience or are generally considered ready though not quite good enough to make a rotation out of Spring. The studs are often still waiting for the Super Two deadline to go by usually in early to mid-June.

This Week’s Trivia Question: Two parts, answer below. In a 2012 study, Maury Brown measured how many days from April 1 to September 30, on average, would have caused rainouts in MLB cities over a decade. Not actual rainouts as many stadiums have domes, but days that would have been rainouts had the team been home and roofless. The two FL teams were 1st of course and the five CA and one AZ teams were last also of course. A. What team after FL had the MOST rainout days and B. What team had the least after the CA and AZ group? The answers are below and may surprise you.

Spotters from the <50% owned crowd:

***TWO START PITCHER***JC Ramirez, RHSP, LAA (14.9% owned in ESPN, 49% FANTRAX) @ TB MON 5/22 & @ MIA SAT 5/27 What do I have to do?: Ramirez’ ownership in Fantrax jumped from 8% to 55% in three weeks but now seems stuck at 49% after his less than spectacular Week 6 start vs Det. Every week I find a pitcher or two this under owned and don’t understand why. All he does is keep on tossing quality starts and racking up great K/BB rates. He is still RP Primary, so if your league has roster limits by primary position, a reliever primary who is tossing QS is quite valuable. Last week I recommended him against the White Sox at home and he did not disappoint, spinning 7IP and giving up 2ER on 5 H, no BB, and 1 HR. He only struck out 2 this week but did not give up any walks and this was the 3rd start in his last five where he went seven full innings pitched and logged a Quality Start. He still has not reached 100 pitches in a start yet, and that type of efficiency should get him to 8 or 9 innings as the season goes on. Next week he is a two-start pitcher, first at Tampa. Tampa is actually pretty hot right now so I’m not saying this is a slam dunk. They are 2nd in homers, 4th in runs, and 1st in walks in the AL but also are 1st in MLB in strikeouts. They are hitting .235/.738 at home which is about 50 points lower than their OPS on the road. Next, they are @ Miami, who are 12th in the AL in runs and batting .232 at home which is 40 points lower than on the road. Against righties, they are hitting .250 but with only a .696 OPS. In their last 6 games, they are hitting .213/.629 with only 11 runs in 6 games. This will mark the 4th week in a row he is on my spotting list. If you are in one of the 50% of leagues where he is still unowned, what the hell are you waiting for?

***TWO START PITCHER***Mike Foltynewicz, RHSP, ATL (12.3% owned ESPN, 64% owned Fantrax) Vs PIT MON 5/22 & @ SF SAT 5/27: Folty spent some time on this list early in the season until his ownership was up to almost 70% and I stopped writing about him. Then he got blown away by the Cards giving up 7 runs in 4 innings and his ownership dropped like a rock. I think that was premature as it was his only bad start so far in 2017. He’s only 25 and we have not seen his best stuff yet in the MLB, though it could be another year or so away. Since that blowout, Folty netted two identical 8-4 wins vs the Toronto Blue Jays and at Miami against the Marlins last week, both of them quality starts. That gives him QS in 5 of his last 6 starts and raised his ownership back up to 64% in Fantrax. Walks are his biggest blemish now as he has walked 14 batters in his last 17 IP over three games. He is above my threshold for inclusion but I added him for all you folks in the 36% of leagues where you will find him sitting on your wire. You know you could use him with all the injuries to pitchers so far in 2017. Next week he is home in Atlanta vs the Pirates on Monday and will travel to San Francisco to face the Giants on Saturday 5/27.

***TWO START PITCHER***Jordan Montgomery, LHSP, NYY (12.2% owned ESPN, 53% owned Fantrax) Vs KC TUE 5/23 & Vs OAK SUN 5/28: Once again Monty was one mistake pitch away from hurling a very good game, giving up a 3 run HR in the 5th inning of a game in Kansas City. Prior to that, he had only given up 2 runs in the game. Overall he is 2-3, 4.81 ERA and 1.398 WHIP with a nice 37k/39.1 IP. Walks have hurt him, as he has 18 in his 7 starts. Next week he gets the Royals again, this time at home, while the Royals are hitting .214 away from Kaufman. The Royals are dead last in the AL in R, BA, and OPS, 14th in HR and hit .216 vs lefties with a .589 OPS. Oakland meanwhile is hitting.249/.695 vs lefties and .228/.685 away from Oakland. They are 13th in the AL in BA and runs, and 2nd in strikeouts. I think Monte will shine in front of the excited home crowd.

Zack Godley, RHSP, AZ (39.7% owned ESPN, 48% owned Fantrax) @ MIL FRI 5/26: Godley has a start Sunday (today) @ San Diego and should be universally owned, even if only as a spot starter for that game. I’ll wait here while you go check your waiver wire to see if your league is one of the 52% of Fantrax Leagues who forgot about him. No, don’t finish the article first, he’ll be gone. Hurry up, I’ll wait right here for you. Godley struck out seven and allowed just one earned run in 6.2 innings against a tough Detroit lineup in his last start. He has 12 strikeouts in 12 innings, with a 2.25 ERA, and gets to face the Braun-less Brewers in MIL. The Brewers bats are hitting .238 on the season with Braun. MIL is hitting .208 at home and .229 vs righties as well as .229 for the past two weeks. They are 2nd in runs, 1st in HR but also first in strikeouts in the NL.

Jesse Chavez, RHSP, LAA (9.8% owned ESPN, 36% owned Fantrax) @ MIA FRI 5/26: Jesse will face the Marlins in Miami like his teammate JC Ramirez. They are 12th in the AL in runs and batting .232 at home which is 40 points lower than on the road. Against righties, they are hitting .250 but with only a .696 OPS. In their last 6 games, they are hitting .213/.629 with only 11 runs in 6 games. In his last 7 games, Chavez is one out away from 5 QS. His last start was one of his most efficient, going 7 IP on 103 pitches with 5 hits and 1 walk. He may not have the most electric stuff but he seldom puts ducks on the pond or gives up many HR, averaging about 2 walks and 1 HR per game. If Ramirez is already owned, why not give Chavez the ball.

Not for the faint of heart. Pitchers from the abyss:

Jose Urena, RHSP, MIA (4.1% owned ESPN, 27% owned Fantrax) @ OAK TUE 5/23: Oakland is hitting.232/.725 vs righties and they are 13th in the AL in BA and runs, and 2nd in strikeouts. Urena, in the meantime, has compiled a 1.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. In his three 2017 starts he is 1 out shy of 3 QS, however his 9/6 K/BB in 17.2 IP is not going to cut it long term. Right now Urena is a pure matchups guy, and this is a good matchup. However, if he is sent to the pen at some point this season, don’t follow him. His upside is limited as a pitch to contact player.

Jeff Hoffman, RHSP, COL (.9% owned ESPN, 30% owned Fantrax) @ PHI MON 5/22. Hoffman is doing well to squelch homers in Colorado but now gets to take a break in Philly. They have very little power vs RH pitchers with a slugging percentage 60 points lower than vs lefties. The Phils are 17th in wRC+ (107) in the MLB. In his last start, May 11 vs the Dodgers, Hoffman went 5.1 IP giving up 3 runs on 6 hits, 1 HR, 2 walks and a nice 8 K’s. That was at home in Coors. This will be in Philly, and worth a shot.

Matt Cain, RHSP, SFG (16.1% owned ESPN, 37% owned Fantrax) vs ATL FRI 5/26: I’m loving the Cain resurgence this season, even with a couple of bumps in the road. In 6 of his 8 starts, he has given up 2 runs or less. The Braves are 13th in the NL in HR and only 10 of their 41 HR have come vs righties. Their OPS vs righties is 70 points less than lefties plus he gets them in the pitcher paradise by the Bay. Don’t look now but 1/3 of the way into the season and Matt Cain is one good start away from having an ERA in the three’s. (4.04 right now). Yeah, it has been a while, but you have to have a good memory. Skill sets tend to stay after injuries even if they lay dormant for a few seasons. No, he will never lead the league in K’s or ERA, but you can have him for free in most leagues.

DFS PLAYERS: You may want to rethink starting him:

Jason Vargas, LHSP KC @ NYY MON 5/21: I hope you did not listen to me last week when I suggested Vargas at home vs the Yankees. Vargas was pitching filthy before that game, sporting a 1.01 ERA and .918 WHIP. He was 5-1 with a 39/8 K/BB in 44.7 IP. Vargas had the best K and Walk rates of his career. Split wise over his career May has always been his best month and his home ERA is a full run and a quarter lower than his away since he’s been in KC. Last week I said, “Yeah, Sell High before June 1!” I hope you did. Now it is probably too late. The Yanks had their way with him scoring six runs in four innings and he gets them again, this time in the friendly hitting confines of Yankee Stadium.

Matt Harvey, RHSP, NYM vs SD TUE 5/23: Harvey burned me last week in DFS. I know, shame on me, but it looked like he had a cake matchup facing the Braun-less Brewers in Milwaukee. He gave me a 5/5/5, as in IP, ER, BB. I finished 11 points outside the money, and the difference was the 12 point spread between Harvey and Ervin Santana who was the same price pre-game. The Brewers are far more formidable than the Padres making this game look enticing, but Harvey is just not right. And I am a slow learner. And in case you think it may be a minor adjustment, his BB/9 is 4.1, and his HR /9 is 1.8, neither of which are sustainable in the MLB if one wants a roster spot. This is all backed up by his 5.50 FIP. I invested in him in 2017 thinking I was getting good deals drafting him in the mid rounds and for less that $10 in auctions, making me have no choice but to think he will turn it around, and I think he will. But his biggest injury to date is the one to his big ego, and I don’t know if a trainer or pitching coach can fix that. Get your head out of your ass Matt.

DFS PLAYERS: Match-ups of the week: I have two for you this week:

Stephen Strasburg, RHSP WAS vs. SD FRI 5/26: It does not take deep analysis to understand how bad the Padres lineup is, even away from PETCO.

Michael Pineda, RHSP NYY vs KC MON 5/22 & vs OAK SAT 5/27: Pineda seems to have found it, whatever it was he was missing the past couple of seasons. I’d use him in either of these games next week, or why not double down and use him in both. His 10.51 K/9 is in line with his career as is his 28.8 K%, but his 4.2 walks percent is about half what it was last season. His 3.42 ERA and 1.035 WHIP are his best since his phenomenal rookie season, the one that the Yankees bought into so many years and surgeries ago. The biggest difference may be his silly 1.75 GB/FB rate which coupled with his K/BB rates make him look like Johan light. Some have lost faith in Pineda over the years. But his ball girl has not, and neither have I. I think he will force the Yanks to sign him after this season. Oh, and he gets the two worst lineups in the AL to pitch to next week.

Trivia Question Answers: Believe it or not, the city with the least rainout days over that decade was the Seattle Mariners. The most? The Kansas City Royals. I was sure it had to be the Yanks!

Thanks for reading and good luck in week eight, especially with your pitching. If you have a question about these or any other SP match-ups next week don’t hesitate to leave a message in the comments, write me, or check out my “Pick Your Spots” thread every Sunday on the /r/fantasybaseball Sub-Reddit where I’ll talk starting pitching all day.

joseph.iannone021@gmail.com @JoeIannone2 Twitter

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(Click the RED link to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join guest host Andrea Lamont, and Kyle Amore live on Monday May 15th, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #87 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will be previewing the coming week’s key matchups and discussing key fantasy information.

Our guest this week is Lenny Melnick. Lenny is fantasy baseball pioneer, current FSWA Hall of Famer, and the host of his daily podcasts on lennymelnickfantasysports.com Mon-Fri at 9am EST. He also co-hosts a show every Sunday morning from 7-10am EST with Craig Mish on the fantasy sports station on Sirius.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join Corey D Roberts, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday May 21st, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #88 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will be previewing the coming week’s key matchups and discussing key fantasy information.

Our guest this week is Kevin Bzdek. Kevin is a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com. His articles focus on bullpens and publish every Friday.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

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