October 10, 2018 - Women Lift Lamont In Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Murphy Up 15 Points In U.S. Senate Race

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A 22-percentage point lead among women in the Connecticut governor's race gives Democrat Ned Lamont a 47 - 39 percent likely voter lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski, with 11 percent for independent candidate Oz Griebel, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





Women back Lamont over Stefanowski 53 - 31 percent, with 13 percent for Griebel. Men tip Republican 46 - 41 percent, with 9 percent for Griebel. This is the first survey of this race among likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.





Lamont tops Stefanowski 87 - 3 percent among Democrats, with 9 percent for Griebel. Stefanowski leads Lamont 90 - 2 percent among Republicans, with 5 percent for Griebel. Independent voters go 42 percent for Lamont, 36 percent for Stefanowski and 18 percent for Griebel.





With 27 days to go, 21 percent of Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind.





Connecticut likely voters don't like their candidates very much, giving Lamont a divided 44 - 45 percent favorability rating and giving Stefanowski a slightly negative 39 - 44 percent. For Griebel, 72 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.





"Ned Lamont is ahead in the Connecticut governor's race, but with 27 days to go, Bob Stefanowski is within striking distance," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.





"The number one issue for Connecticut voters is the economy, and Lamont wins decisively among those voters. Voters also say, however, that the most important quality in a candidate for governor is the ability to bring needed change, and among those voters, Stefanowski wins big."





The economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, 31 percent of Connecticut likely voters say, while 26 percent cite taxes and 24 percent list government spending, with 13 percent for education.





In electing a governor, 30 percent of Connecticut likely voters most want someone who will bring needed change, while 21 percent want someone who shares their values. Another 18 percent want someone who cares about average people and 15 percent most want a governor who is honest.





Supporting a candidate who shares their opinion of President Donald Trump is important to 65 percent of likely voters, 78 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of independent voters. Only 35 percent of voters say it's important to their vote if a candidate shares their opinion of Gov. Dannel Malloy.





Connecticut likely voters disapprove 59 - 39 percent of the way President Trump is doing his job.





Voters disapprove 69 - 23 percent of the job Gov. Dannel Malloy is doing.





"In deciding which candidate to support, President Donald Trump is a more important factor for voters than Gov. Dannel Malloy, although both men appear to be doing damage to their own parties," Dr. Schwartz said.





U. S. Senate Race





In Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Chris Murphy leads business owner Matthew Corey, the Republican challenger, 57 - 42 percent among likely voters. Sen. Murphy is ahead 95 - 4 percent among Democrats and 57 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Corey 96 - 4 percent.





Ten percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind.





Voters give Murphy a 58 - 37 percent favorability rating. For Corey, 57 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.





From October 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 767 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Bob Stefanowski the Republican, and Oz Griebel running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ned Lamont the Democrat, Bob Stefanowski the Republican, or Oz Griebel running as an independent candidate?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Lamont 47% 2% 87% 42% 41% 53% 52% 30% Stefanowski 39 90 3 36 46 31 36 55 Griebel 11 5 9 18 9 13 9 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 3 1 4 3 3 3 2 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Lamont 37% 49% 43% 62% Stefanowski 53 34 43 23 Griebel 8 13 11 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 2 3 3 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q10 Govt Econ Taxes Spend Eductn Lamont 53% 30% 30% 82% Stefanowski 37 58 46 3 Griebel 6 10 19 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 4 2 4 3 MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY IN HOW TO VOTE Q11 Shares Bring Good Honest Values Cares Change Leader Lamont 51% 59% 71% 23% 46% Stefanowski 30 32 16 66 28 Griebel 13 5 11 9 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 1 2 4 IMPORTANCE OF GOV CANDIDATE SHARING OPINION ON TRUMP Q12.... MALLOY Q13... Imp NotImp Imp NotImp Lamont 59% 25% 33% 54% Stefanowski 30 54 57 29 Griebel 8 18 7 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 3 4 3 3

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS............................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1....................... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1............. Tot Lamont Stefanowski Griebel Mind made up 78% 82% 85% 32% Might change 21 17 14 63 DK/NA 1 1 1 5

2. Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 5% 83% 34% 39% 49% 50% 26% Unfavorable 45 86 10 50 51 40 39 61 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 5 15 9 9 9 10 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 34% 47% 40% 56% Unfavorable 56 39 48 37 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 9 7 REFUSED 1 4 2 -

3. Is your opinion of Bob Stefanowski favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 39% 87% 6% 36% 48% 30% 35% 52% Unfavorable 44 3 74 44 38 50 51 29 Hvn't hrd enough 16 9 19 18 14 18 13 18 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 2 2 1 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 51% 32% 42% 28% Unfavorable 34 50 42 49 Hvn't hrd enough 14 16 15 21 REFUSED 1 1 1 2

4. Is your opinion of Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 18% 14% 16% 23% 16% 19% 18% 15% Unfavorable 8 15 6 7 10 7 10 7 Hvn't hrd enough 72 69 76 69 72 73 69 77 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 14% 20% 17% 21% Unfavorable 12 6 9 5 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 72 74 REFUSED 2 2 2 -

5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Murphy the Democrat and Matthew Corey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Chris Murphy the Democrat or more toward Matthew Corey the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Murphy 57% 4% 95% 57% 49% 65% 61% 41% Corey 42 96 4 39 50 33 37 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 1 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Murphy 43% 64% 53% 71% Corey 55 34 45 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - DK/NA 2 1 1 1

5a. (If candidate chosen q5) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q5.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q5 Tot Murphy Corey Mind made up 90% 92% 88% Might change 10 8 12 DK/NA - - -

6. Is your opinion of Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 58% 9% 91% 59% 54% 62% 62% 45% Unfavorable 37 87 4 34 43 30 32 51 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 4 7 3 7 5 3 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 - - WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 48% 63% 56% 68% Unfavorable 48 31 40 24 Hvn't hrd enough 3 5 4 7 REFUSED - - - 1

7. Is your opinion of Matthew Corey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 25% 61% 4% 20% 30% 20% 20% 35% Unfavorable 15 4 26 10 15 14 16 10 Hvn't hrd enough 57 34 67 68 52 63 61 53 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 31% 21% 26% 22% Unfavorable 14 13 14 15 Hvn't hrd enough 52 64 58 60 REFUSED 2 1 2 3

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dannel Malloy is handling his job as governor?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 23% 2% 43% 21% 20% 27% 26% 15% Disapprove 69 98 44 72 75 63 67 82 DK/NA 7 1 13 6 5 10 8 2 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 18% 26% 22% 33% Disapprove 79 66 73 54 DK/NA 3 8 6 13

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 89% 2% 41% 48% 30% 33% 55% Disapprove 59 10 95 57 50 68 66 44 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Approve 51% 31% 42% 30% Disapprove 48 67 57 66 DK/NA 1 2 1 4

10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, government spending, transportation, or education?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 31% 29% 32% 28% 33% 28% 33% 33% Taxes 26 38 18 27 26 27 22 32 Government spending 24 31 17 30 26 23 23 29 Transportation 3 - 5 2 4 1 4 - Education 13 1 26 10 8 18 16 6 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 1 2 2 2 - DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Economy 33% 32% 33% 27% Taxes 26 25 26 29 Government spending 28 22 25 22 Transportation 3 2 2 4 Education 8 16 12 18 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 2 1 1 -

11. Thinking about who to vote for in the election for governor, which of the following is most important to you: is it someone who is honest, someone who shares your values, someone who cares about average people, someone who would bring needed change, or someone who has good leadership skills?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Honest 15% 15% 17% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% Shares values 21 23 26 16 20 21 28 13 Cares about people 18 6 26 20 16 21 13 21 Bring change 30 45 18 30 30 30 29 33 Good leader 12 10 11 16 14 11 12 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 2 - - 1 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 4 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Honest 15% 17% 16% 13% Shares values 22 23 22 16 Cares about people 14 18 16 28 Bring change 31 30 30 31 Good leader 13 11 12 13 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - DK/NA 4 1 3 -

12. Is supporting a candidate who shares your opinion on President Trump important to you in the election for governor, or is that not important?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Important 65% 58% 78% 61% 60% 70% 65% 67% Not important 35 41 22 39 40 29 34 33 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 1 - WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Important 60% 72% 66% 60% Not important 40 28 34 40 DK/NA - 1 - -

13. Is supporting a candidate who shares your opinion on Governor Malloy important to you in the election for governor, or is that not important?