European nations set to back US opposition to move, meaning Washington does not have to exercise its security council veto

The Palestinian attempt to claim a moral victory in its bid for UN security council recognition of a Palestinian state appears on the brink of collapse as European nations look likely to back Washington's opposition to the move.

The security council is scheduled to meet on Friday to consider the Palestinian request in September to be admitted to the UN as a full member state. There is no chance of the request being approved, because the US has said it will veto any move.

But the Palestinians had hoped to claim a moral victory by garnering the support of nine of the 15 security council members they need to receive admission. Washington would then have been placed in the embarrassing position of having to kill the request.

However, diplomatic sources at the UN say the prospect of a vote is diminishing because the Palestinians appear able to muster the backing of only eight countries on the security council.

The Palestinians had hoped that Paris would provide the ninth vote after France supported admission of a Palestinian state to Unesco last week. But Paris has joined other European countries on the security council, including Britain, in planning to abstain in the vote.

"By our calculations the Palestinians can't win," said a diplomat at the UN.

"They are seriously thinking about whether or not they want this vote right now. A member of the security council has to request it. It was expected that Lebanon or South Africa would do so on Friday. But the way the numbers are stacking up, it's far from certain that's what the Palestinians now want. I'd be surprised if there's a vote on Friday. There may not be a vote at all."

The eight security council members expected to back the Palestinian bid are Russia, China, South Africa, India, Brazil, Lebanon, Nigeria and Gabon.

Britain, France and Colombia have said they will abstain. Portugal and Bosnia are also likely not to vote. Germany was expected to abstain or join the US in voting against the measure.

The Europeans have been under considerable pressure from Washington not to back the Palestinian request. The White House says that recognising Palestinian statehood pre-empts a negotiated political settlement with Israel and therefore undermines the prospects for negotiations.

Last week, Barack Obama expressed frustration to the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, over Paris's support for the Palestinian admission to Unesco by telling him that the move "weakened us".

The French foreign ministry has explained the apparent contradiction of voting in favour of the Palestinians at Unesco but planning to abstain in the security council by saying that the Palestinian initiative has no chance of succeeding because of the US veto and therefore there is no point in supporting it. It also said that the Palestinian move carried "risks of confrontation and blockage" in the Middle East.

France has reiterated a call made by Sarkozy in his speech to the UN in September for the Palestinians to be given an 'upgraded observer state' status by the general assembly instead. That option is still open to the Palestinians but they had hoped to go to the general assembly with the moral victory of a win vetoed by the Americans in the security council.

The British foreign secretary, William Hague, on Wednesday defended the UK's decision to abstain in the face of criticism that it amounted to a vote against the Palestinians and in favour of Israel.

Hague told the House of Commons that UN recognition of a Palestinian state would undermine the prospects for negotiations. He was challenged by an MP who said that Israel is not interested in a return to "meaningful negotiations" and who asked Hague when Britain's patience with the Israeli government will run out.

"I do not think the Israeli government regard me – or the position of the United Kingdom – as patient on this subject because we have spoken to them extremely frankly about what they need to do," said Hague. "Nevertheless, however frustrated we are, we all have to recognise that the resumption of negotiations is the only way to bring about the Palestinian state that we seek.

"We have to act in a way that is in accordance with that, which is why we have taken the decision we have."

The Palestinian request to the security council prompted a flurry of diplomatic activity to try and restart peace talks as Washington, London and Paris sought to avoid a showdown at the UN that they feared could compromise their efforts to forge relations with the new governments emerging from the revolutions of the Arab spring.

But a proposal by the Middle East quartet of the UN, EU, US and Russia for negotiations aimed at reaching a framework agreement by the end of next year have made little progress after the Palestinians said they would only talk if Israel halts settlement construction.

Israel responded by announcing the building of thousands more homes in Jewish settlements.