Not even the most supreme optimists in Labor dreamed of this. A thumping victory, a “bloodbath” as Labor’s health minister, Jill Hennessy, put it. Labor luminaries looked not just pleased, but stunned.

A swing to Labor of around 6%, around 60 seats in an 88-seat parliament, the Coalition reduced to a rump of 20, with several still in doubt. Although the counting of prepoll votes might bring back the scale of the win a little, Labor’s early worries about being forced into minority government proved laughable.

Most stunning were the wins in Melbourne’s comfortable leafy eastern suburbs, not seriously considered to be within Labor’s grasp, and not held by the party since the glory days of Steve Bracks’ landslide in 2002. Seats like Ringwood, Forest Hill, Burwood.

Even the so-called “sandbelt” seats along the Frankston rail line, which conventional wisdom says are always tight, always marginal, hardly mattered in the end.

Before the election they were all held by Labor on small margins. Now, they are safe seats, with Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston swinging to Labor by more than 10%.

Why did this happen? The answer may be simple in one way, more complex in another. First, the simple: people support governments if they do things that improve their lives. It sounds obvious, but it can be forgotten in the drama of politics and campaigns.

As Andrews put it in his victory speech, the government has focused on the practical: upgrading hospitals, new schools, the removal of level crossings, a huge infrastructure program. People will overlook many failings if see things happening, particularly in a city like Melbourne straining under record population growth.

“We are the most progressive government in the nation,” Andrews said. “We are the most progressive state in the nation. We live our values, we keep our promises and we get things done.”

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The more complex questions are about the Coalition, which as Hennessy said on the ABC, “is at a crossroads of existentialism”.

If there are federal implications to this poll – and they can be overstated because this was overwhelmingly fought on state issues – they are about the identity crisis facing the Liberal party across the nation more than the trauma of the federal leadership change mid year. At the end of this term of government in 2022, the state Coalition would have held power for just four of the past 23 years.

The recriminations have already begun about the party’s hierarchy and direction. Former premier Jeff Kennett called for the conservative state Liberal president, Michael Kroger – a dominant and controversial figure – to resign. Matthew Guy is unlikely to remain as leader.

Guy is a moderate, but his party is increasingly divided along lines familiar in Canberra – a growing segment of the party is far to the right of the electorate, and to “play” to that segment alienate others.

Rejecting a trial of a safe injecting room after dozens of people had died of overdoses in Richmond was more ideological than responsible. The seat swung heavily to Labor.

The Coalition’s poor record on the environment – particularly its rejection of any renewable energy target – means it is out of touch, particularly in a progressive state.

Its fear campaign that crime was “out of control” came to dominate the campaign, but its rhetoric did not convince a perhaps more sophisticated electorate.

Andrews sensed that the Coalition’s tactics, as much as its policies, had been rebuffed. Victorians had “rejected the low road of fear and division and for that I am very, very proud”, he said.

For the Greens, this was a disastrous campaign, and it may well have implications across the Victorian border. It had three lower house seats before Saturday, and hoped to win two more – Brunswick and Richmond, with realistic aspirations of denying Labor a majority government.

So far, it has won none of its targets. Brunswick is too close to call, Labor has retained Richmond, and Greens are projected to lose its current seat of Northcote. Another of its seats, Prahran, may go to the ALP.

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Its campaign fell apart and, with bitter internal divisions destroying its attempt to win the federal seat of Batman last year, and its poor results in the Tasmanian and South Australian state elections, the result in Victoria is shattering.

As for Andrews, he is not universally liked, even within his own party. He can be difficult and testy. But he’s driven, and has driven this government. And after this night, he’s a Labor hero.