Which college football teams will dominate in 2016?

Which teams will have value in the market for win totals?

It might seem difficult to answer such questions before the season begins. College football relies on the ungainly actions of hormonal young men. Throw in the randomness of a bouncing football, and it seems unpredictable.

However, it is possible to make accurate preseason college football predictions. My preseason rankings come from a regression model that considers team performance, turnovers (both over the past four seasons) and returning starters.

The visual shows the top teams, while the list at the bottom gives all 128 bowl subdivision teams.

How to construct a simple preseason model

For team performance, I use my college football team ratings. These numbers come from taking margin of victory in games and adjusting for strength of schedule with my proprietary algorithm.

Team performance tends to persist from year to year, as Alabama and Rice will never trade places in the college football hierarchy. Hence, the four years worth of team ratings makes up the most important input into the model.

While turnovers can greatly impact a team’s rating, turnovers tend to be random from year to year. If a team has 20 more take aways than give aways during the season, they most likely over performed in their rating. The model uses turnovers to adjust this rating down to better estimate the true strength of the team.

Finally, teams with many returning starters tend to perform better the following season. When only 6 starters return due to early exits to the NFL draft (Ohio State in 2016), we expect a dip in team performance.

How well does the preseason model predict games?

The regression model doesn’t account for every factor in evaluating a college football team. For example, it fails to consider whether the starting quarterback returns for this season.

Despite these flaws, the preseason model picked the winner in 73.3% of games during the 2015 season. This only includes games between two bowl subdivision teams, excluding the cupcake games with FCS teams.

Don’t expect the model to work quite that well again. The firing of Baylor coach Art Briles alone might screw up its predictive ability, and I always encourage you to make subjective adjustments based on situations.

However, the model should be solid in 2016. Over the past three seasons, the preseason rankings has predicted the winner in 71.7% of games (1519-599 with no predictions in 144 games).

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Let’s look at 3 stories based on these preseason rankings that jump out at me.

Michigan vs Ohio State

In August of 2015, Ohio State was the toast of college football. Urban Meyer’s team had won the first playoff, and the preseason chatter revolved around his success on the recruiting trail.

Then in the most inexplicable game of 2015, Ohio State lost to Michigan State, a team without star QB Connor Cook. The loss cost the Buckeyes a spot in the playoff, and then 10 Buckeyes got drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft.

In contrast, Michigan had all kinds of question in August of last year (2015). They were coming off a 5-7 season, and all hopes rested on incoming coach Jim Harbaugh.

Michigan ended the season with a surprising 41-7 win over Florida during bowl season. Harbaugh crushed it on the recruiting path, landing top recruit Rashan Gary and a top 5 class.

Now, heading into 2016, many believe that Michigan is a much better team than Ohio State. There are numerous reasons to doubt this.

Ohio State beat Michigan in the Big House 42-13 last season.

Ohio State’s recruiting over the past four years has outpaced Michigan according to my numbers.

Michigan has questions at QB and offensive line heading into 2016.

Ohio State has to replace many starters, but one of them is not QB J.T. Barrett.

My preseason model has Michigan a slim half a point ahead of Ohio State. It’s too close to call, and Michigan travels to Columbus to play the Buckeyes this year.

Stay tuned for my Big Ten East win probabilities.

Can LSU contend for a national title?

Last year, Les Miles almost lost his job. LSU lost three straight SEC West games, and the Mad Hatter looked like a goner.

The LSU administration then suddenly changed course, announcing they would retain Miles after an LSU win over Texas A&M. This might actually make sense, since Miles has averaged over 10 wins per season despite playing in college football’s best division.

Now, LSU checks in at 3rd in my preseason rankings, a clear contender for the SEC West and playoff spot. Let’s look at the top reasons.

Leonard Fournette

9 starters back on both sides of the ball

The hiring of coordinator Dave Aranda, whose defense at Wisconsin ranked 12th, 16th and 12th over the past 3 years in my yards per play adjusted for schedule

Did I mention Leonard Fournette?

There’s only one problem, and he’s the guy taking snaps from the center. QB Brandon Harris completed a meager 54% of his passes last year, allowing defenses to key on Fournette in critical games.

Harris looks like a stumbling block for this team. However, he did have off season surgery to fix a sports hernia that might have affected his play late in the season.

Also, Les Miles has had success without a star QB. LSU played in 2013 BCS title game despite the maybe average play of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee at QB.

Florida State vs Clemson

It seems like Clemson should be ahead of Florida State heading into the 2016 season.

Clemson beat Florida State on their way to the national title game against Alabama. Despite the 5 point loss against Bama, you could argue Clemson should have won. They dominated the line of scrimmage but couldn’t overcome blown coverages in the secondary.

However, my preseason ranking like Florida State, as the Seminoles rank 2nd over Clemson at 5th. The returning starters variable plays a critical role in this rank.

Florida State has 17 returning starters, which includes star running back Dalvin Cook. In contrast, Clemson returns only 12 starters. In addition, the Tigers had heavy attrition in the secondary, including 3 players that got drafted by the NFL.

In addition, Clemson beat Florida State by 10 last year. However, Florida State had more yards per play than Clemson, an indication of a fairly even game. The Seminoles couldn’t overcome a 2 for 12 rate in converting third downs.

However, Clemson might have the trump card. They bring back Deshaun Watson, the best quarterback in the nation. Florida State is still deciding between returning starter Sean McGuire at QB or a few younger players.

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In addition, you get a sample of my college football predictions usually only available to paying members of the site. In 2016, these numbers correctly predicted the winner 76.2% of games.

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Full college football preseason rankings

1. Alabama, 21.2

2. Florida State, 19.3

3. LSU, 17.3

4. Clemson, 16.3

5. Oklahoma, 16.2

6. Stanford, 15.7

7. Tennessee, 14.8

8. Mississippi, 13.2

9. Michigan, 12.6

10. Texas A&M, 12.3

11. Ohio State, 12.1

12. Arkansas, 11.8

13. Notre Dame, 11.8

14. Louisville, 11.3

15. Baylor, 11.3

16. Georgia, 11.0

17. Oklahoma State, 10.8

18. Oregon, 10.7

19. USC, 10.4

20. North Carolina, 10.1

21. TCU, 9.9

22. Wisconsin, 9.8

23. Mississippi State, 9.5

24. Utah, 8.9

25. Nebraska, 8.7

26. Washington, 8.6

27. Brigham Young, 8.6

28. Florida, 8.3

29. Michigan State, 7.9

30. Washington State, 7.3

31. Virginia Tech, 7.2

32. Auburn, 7.1

33. Pittsburgh, 6.7

34. South Carolina, 5.9

35. West Virginia, 5.8

36. Iowa, 5.8

37. UCLA, 5.6

38. Arizona, 5.5

39. Texas, 5.4

40. Miami (FL), 5.2

41. Houston, 5.2

42. Texas Tech, 5.0

43. Penn State, 3.9

44. Vanderbilt, 3.7

45. Memphis, 3.6

46. Toledo, 3.5

47. Georgia Tech, 3.4

48. Cincinnati, 3.4

49. Boise State, 3.4

50. Kansas State, 3.3

51. South Florida, 3.2

52. Missouri, 3.0

53. Arizona State, 2.6

54. Temple, 2.6

55. Boston College, 2.5

56. California, 2.1

57. Georgia Southern, 2.0

58. Northwestern, 1.9

59. North Carolina State, 1.9

60. Minnesota, 1.8

61. Navy, 1.3

62. Western Kentucky, 1.3

63. Iowa State, 1.0

64. Syracuse, 0.9

65. Northern Illinois, 0.7

66. San Diego State, 0.6

67. Indiana, 0.5

68. Western Michigan, 0.3

69. Bowling Green, 0.0

70. Air Force, -0.3

71. Connecticut, -0.3

72. Virginia, -0.5

73. Wake Forest, -0.6

74. Utah State, -0.6

75. Duke, -0.6

76. Purdue, -1.2

77. Colorado, -1.2

78. Maryland, -1.3

79. Marshall, -1.5

80. East Carolina, -1.8

81. San Jose State, -1.8

82. Tulsa, -2.2

83. Kentucky, -2.3

84. Rutgers, -2.4

85. Appalachian State, -2.4

86. Central Michigan, -2.4

87. Oregon State, -2.7

88. Illinois, -4.2

89. UCF, -5.5

90. Arkansas State, -5.7

91. Army, -5.9

92. Middle Tennessee State, -6.6

93. Louisiana Tech, -6.7

94. SMU, -6.9

95. Nevada, -7.0

96. Ohio, -7.5

97. Colorado State, -7.9

98. Florida Atlantic, -7.9

99. Troy, -8.0

100. Southern Miss, -8.0

101. Kent State, -8.1

102. Ball State, -8.6

103. Georgia State, -8.9

104. New Mexico, -9.1

105. Wyoming, -9.2

106. Louisiana Lafayette, -9.3

107. Hawaii, -9.4

108. Rice, -10.1

109. Buffalo, -10.3

110. Tulane, -11.0

111. Kansas, -11.4

112. UNLV, -12.0

113. Akron, -12.5

114. Fresno State, -12.6

115. South Alabama, -12.7

116. Old Dominion, -13.9

117. Miami (OH), -14.3

118. Florida International, -14.4

119. Louisiana Monroe, -14.8

120. North Texas, -15.2

121. Eastern Michigan, -15.2

122. UTEP, -15.9

123. Idaho, -16.0

124. Massachusetts, -16.6

125. UTSA, -17.4

126. New Mexico State, -18.8

127. Texas State, -20.9

128. Charlotte, -24.0