Iowa Poll: Race is tight, unsettled in Democrats' 3rd Congressional District primary

William Petroski | The Des Moines Register

Show Caption Hide Caption Iowa Poll: Mauro, Axne neck and neck in 3rd district Eddie Mauro and Cindy Axne lead Pete D'Alessandro in a tight race at the top of the Democratic primary in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District.

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The race for the Democratic Party's nomination for Congress in Iowa's 3rd District remains up for grabs as the June 5 primary approaches, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

The poll shows a tight contest between Eddie Mauro of Des Moines and Cindy Axne of West Des Moines, while Pete D'Alessandro of Des Moines is in a distant third place. But with only weeks to go before the primary, many Iowans say they have not yet made up their minds.

Thirty-six percent of likely voters surveyed say they are undecided.

Quiz: Which 3rd District candidate do you agree with most?

The 3rd District race for Congress is expected to be one of the more competitive in the country this year as Democrats try to regain control of the U.S. House. While Republican U.S. Rep. David Young won the district handily in 2016, Democrats believe a surge by their party this year could sweep him away. Young, from Van Meter, is currently serving his second term.

The Iowa Poll, conducted May 13-16 by Selzer & Co., included 400 likely Democratic Party primary voters in the 3rd Congressional District, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. The poll included Iowans who say they will definitely vote or have already voted early in the Democratic primary.

The 3rd District covers 16 counties in southwest Iowa, and it includes the cities of Des Moines and Council Bluffs.

Mauro, a well-known high school baseball and football coach who heads a wholesale insurance business, has support from 27 percent of likely voters. Axne, a former state government official who operates a digital design firm, has 26 percent. D'Alessandro, who directed U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign in Iowa, has 11 percent.

'In flux'

Several poll respondents interviewed by the Des Moines Register said they were still in the process of learning about the three Democratic candidates, who have spent months speaking at forums throughout the district and visiting communities to shake hands and listen to voters.

Just 18 percent of likely primary voters say their mind is made up, while a whopping 82 percent say they still could be persuaded to support someone else as their first choice.

Nancy Eklov of Ankeny, a retired business consultant, said she listed her first choice as Axne when she was surveyed for the Iowa Poll, but she didn't know a lot about the other candidates at the time.

"I tend to vote for women when I don’t know where they stand on everything, and I heard enough of what she said that I believed that (Axne) was my kind of Democrat," Eklov said. "I have now heard more from Mauro, and I very much like what he says, so I am very much in flux now."

Poll respondent Bill Stammerman of Dallas Center is a semi-retired teacher who serves on the Dallas County Democratic Party Central Committee. As a Catholic, he said he's supporting Mauro, who formerly coached at Dowling Catholic High School. He also liked one of Mauro's baseball-oriented television commercials that supports affordable health care.

"I don't think he's a polished politician," Stammerman said.

Respondent Sandy Gracey, a hair stylist from Norwalk, said she listed D'Alessandro as her first choice.

"I believe he was endorsed by Bernie Sanders, and I guess that was the one factor that made me think he might be a good choice," Gracey said.

Demographic differences

The poll shows that Mauro draws support from middle-aged voters, ages 45 to 64, those with some college education and self-identified independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary.

Axne leads with self-identified Democrats, and with those ages 65 and over. Both of those groups tend to be reliable voters, especially in low-turnout elections.

None of the Democratic candidates is well known in the district. More than half of district voters say they do not know Axne or D'Alessando well enough to form an opinion, and 46 percent say they do not know Mauro well enough to do so.

Under Iowa law, a primary candidate must secure at least 35 percent of the vote to win a party's nomination. If the 35 percent threshold isn't met, the nomination is determined by a party convention. That's what happened in 2014, when Young won the Republican nomination for the 3rd District seat and was eventually elected to Congress.

If D'Alessando does not surge, the poll indicates it is unlikely the Democratic contest will be decided in a convention, said J. Ann Selzer, president of the Selzer & Co. polling firm. If the race does end in a party convention, any of the three candidates would be acceptable choices, a majority of voters say.

More Iowa Poll:

Both parties like their chances

Troy Price, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said Young was elected and re-elected in years that were good for Republicans. But he senses that Iowans are fed up with what's happening in Washington, D.C., which he believes is creating an opportunity for Democrats to win the 3rd District seat in November.

"With the three candidates that we have running in the 3rd District, I have seen them every week where they are out in some communities that may not have seen a Democrat in the last few years. They are out there engaging people and talking about their concerns and their issues. I feel really good," Price said.

Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, said the conventional wisdom from Republicans — as well as his Democratic friends — is that the Democratic Party lost its best candidate for the 3rd District campaign when Des Moines businesswoman Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough signatures to place her name on the primary ballot.

Two political analysts — The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball — both rate the 3rd District campaign as leaning Republican.

Young has regularly returned home since he's was elected four years ago, visiting all 16 counties in the district at least once a month to attend various meetings and to talk with people, or to simply attend high school basketball games and other community events.

"David is putting his heart and soul into this job, and he believes in what he is doing," Kaufmann said. "I believe it will pay political dividends for him as well."

Campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show that Mauro had raised $513,000 through March 31 — including a loan from himself of $300,000. Axne had raised $419,000 — including $17,000 she lent her campaign. D'Alessandro had raised nearly $236,000.

Young, who is unopposed for the GOP nomination, had raised $1.2 million.

More: Iowa Poll: Hubbell leads in fluid Democratic primary race for governor

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted May 13-16 for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 Iowans ages 18 or older in the 3rd congressional district who say they will definitely vote or have already voted early in the Democratic primary this June.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,326 households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Of the 400 likely voters interviewed, 143 3rd district respondents were pulled from the statewide poll; the remaining 257 respondents were collected via a 3rd district oversample. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the subsample of 400 likely Democratic primary voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.