Nuclear Iran Bet Update By Bryan Caplan

John Podhoretz engaged my proposed nuclear Iran bet on Twitter. Highlights of the exchange:

@bryan_caplan I’ll bet you but why such long odds? — John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) July 28, 2015

.@jpodhoretz I propose long odds because you claim very high confidence (“effectively ensures”). I don’t. — Bryan Caplan (@bryan_caplan) July 28, 2015

@bryan_caplan Already hedging your bet and there isn’t even one! Bock bock bock! — John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) July 28, 2015

.@jpodhoretz I’m not too chicken to admit my ignorance. Are you? — Bryan Caplan (@bryan_caplan) July 28, 2015

@bryan_caplan I’m too bored to play Twitter with you — John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) July 28, 2015

.@jpodhoretz Betting is a great substitute for fruitless argument. Sign here and the bet is on. — Bryan Caplan (@bryan_caplan) July 28, 2015

My offer remains open. And I’m happy to negotiate the terms. O ye of great knowledge, come take my money!