With the Sounders currently sitting at 8 points after 10 games and an uneasiness amongst the fans about our playoff chances, I wanted to take a deeper look into the Sounders' current situation. To do that, I decided to contextualize our current circumstances by analyzing our previous two seasons, concentrating on the start of each season to the end of May. From there, I move on to how the team approached the summer transfer window, looking at the additions they made and their impacts on the team going forward. Using this information, I will then be able to better discuss and explain the state of the Sounders today.

In March 2016, everyone felt good about the Sounders, coming off another successful season that ended in a shootout against FC Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. The Sounders had just added left back Joevin Jones and forward Jordan Morris to their ranks and everything was good in Sounderland. Fans were quite excited to see Morris, the young star coming off of a college career with an NCAA Championship and multiple national team caps. Then, just ten days before the season began, disaster struck, and Obafemi Martins was transferred to Shanghai Greenland Shenhua FC. With this move, the identity of Sounders soccer for the previous two seasons, the fun, exciting soccer where Dempsey and Martins broke down defenses with their quick backyard style of play, was broken up. No more would there be Obaflips gracing the field of CenturyLink. In three years in Seattle, Martins had amassed 40 goals and 23 assists over 72 games, and with his absence leaving a gigantic hole in the lineup, the team struggled massively. The Sounders ended the month of May with 13 points and a record of 4-1-7. The team averaged 1.08 pts per game, 0.84 goals per game (11g), and 1.15 goals against per game (15ga). The fanbase struggled to cope with this new sensation of near failure, and people openly conjectured in May if Seattle had reached a point where the season was unsalvageable. By mid-July when the summer transfer window opened, things had not improved. After 17 matches, the Sounders were averaging 1.0 pts per game, 0.88 goals per game, and 1.17 goals against per game. Recognizing the lack of offensive production, GM Garth Lagerwey brought in star midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro. Energized by their new Uruguayan midfielder, the Sounders stormed through the rest of the season. Seattle finished the final 17 games of the season with 31 out of 51 possible points, averaging 1.82 pts per game (82% increase), 1.76 goals per game (100% increase), and 1.29 goals against per game (10% increase). The Sounders would end their season with an MLS Cup win off the back of Stefan Frei against what many called an unbeatable Toronto side. Miraculously, the Sounders had turned a bleak, hopeless season into one of the most historic MLS had seen to date.

Coming fresh off their MLS Cup win, the Sounders and their fans were rearing to go heading into the 2017 season. After signing some depth options in Henry Wingo, Jordy Delem, Will Bruin, Harry Shipp, Nouhou, and Gustav Svensson, the roster looked strong, with the notable exception of right back. Brad Evans was expected to take over the position, but spent the season battling injuries, leaving no clear starter. Just like the season before, the Sounders would struggle through their first three months. Seattle entered June with 16 pts and a record of 4-4-5. The team averaged 1.23 pts per game, 1.53 goals per game (20g), and 1.23 goals against per game (16ga). Again the situation would not improve before the summer transfer window. The Sounders entered the window after 19 games with 24pts and a 6-6-7 record, averaging 1.26 points per game, 1.63 goals per game (31g), and 1.15 goals against per game (22ga). However, Lagerwey once more recognized the teams weaknesses, bringing in right back Kelvin Leerdam, left winger Víctor Rodríguez, and depth pieces Lamar Neagle and Calum Mallace. With their newly cemented back four, the Sounders would go on another miracle run, looking once again like title contenders. Seattle finished the last 15 games of the season with 29 of 45 possible points, averaging 1.82 pts per game (increase of 48%), 1.73 goals per game (increase 6%), and an absurd 0.67 goals against per game (decreased 42%). The Sounders dominated their way through the Western Conference Playoffs, but ultimately lost to Toronto FC in a rematch to retain the MLS Cup.

Fans were disappointed with the loss in Toronto, but looked forward to what the 2018 season would bring with CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) starting in February. While the likes of LAFC and Atlanta spent big in preseason, signing designated players such as Carlos Vela and Ezequiel Barco, Seattle quietly went about their business without much fanfare, adding roster depth in Waylon Francis, Magnus Wolff Eikrem, Alex Roldan, Handwalla Bwana, and Jordan McCrary. These signings did little to calm the rising concerns of lack of depth at both center back and specifically striker, with Jordan Morris's form a big question mark after struggling in 2017. Then came the fateful night of February 22nd as the Sounders traveled to Panama for a CCL matchup with Santa Tecla, where in the 84th minute Jordan Morris suffered a season-ending injury. Due to this injury, Lagerwey seemingly had no choice but to bring in a striker before the primary transfer window closed. Seattle would sign center back Kim Kee-hee before the window's closing, but ultimately no strikers. After 10 games and the end of May, the Sounders are currently sitting at 8 points, averaging 0.8 pts per game, 0.7 goals per game (7g), and 1.2 goals against per game (12ga). With a roster suffering from up to nine players unavailable at any given time due to injuries, suspensions, and international duty, fans fear that the Sounders may have finally dug themselves a hole that even a midseason resurgence cannot rectify. But, given recent history and Seattle's schedule going forward, I would argue that now is not the time to be hitting the panic button.

The last playoff spot in the west has gone to teams with just 46 points in the last two seasons. The opinion that the Sounders are in a worse position points-wise this season is technically true, but I would argue that the difference is inconsequential. Through 10 games last season, the Sounders had 10 points with a record of 2-4-4; that's only two more points than our current start. For the Sounders to reach that lowest threshold of 46 points, they do not necessarily have a very difficult path to follow. There are currently seven games between now and the transfer window opening up on July 10th. Those games are away to Real Salt Lake, home against DC United, away to NY Red Bulls, home against Chicago, home against Portland, away to Colorado, and away to New England. Of those games, the only one I feel is a certain loss is away at Red Bulls. From 21 points available, I believe the Sounders need only nine points for a completely reasonable shot at the playoffs. With nine more points before the transfer window, the team would only need to average 1.71 pts per game for the remainder of the season, which the Sounders have shown to be very capable of in recent years.

An In-Depth Look at the Next Seven Games

Through the first 10 games of the season, Seattle vastly underperformed their expected goal output, only scoring seven versus an expected 14, and had an unexpectedly difficult schedule. Five of the games were against top three opponents in their respective conferences. Balancing both CCL and a challenging league schedule with an injured squad would be a difficult task for any team in MLS. The next stretch of games is much friendlier to the Sounders with their opponents league league positions averaging 7th place.

The Sounders' first match away at Real Salt Lake I believe to be a winnable game. Their win in Seattle came down to a goal that was both against the run of play and goal of the week material. RSL are currently scoring 1.25 goals per game while allowing 2.0 goals per game, and with Bruin and Rodríguez playing a part in this matchup, I am confident in Seattle's chances to leave Salt Lake City with a result.

Their second match is at home against DC United, who currently sit in last place in the East. Their only away win of the season came against an equally poor San Jose, and their two away draws came in games where the opponents received first half red cards. With this game being at home, I feel safe in saying Seattle will take three points from this one, especially with an additional week to get Bruin and Rodríguez to full match fitness.

The only game I feel the Sounders would be lucky to get any result in is away against the Red Bulls. They currently sit in 4th place in the East, but with two games in hand and the league's best offense, they could find themselves in first place by this game's kickoff. They are 4-1-1 at home while outscoring their opponents 15-3.

Seattle then hosts a struggling Chicago Fire side that has the 4th worst defense in the league. I believe that the Sounders' home record since Schmetzer took over speaks for itself, and I see the Sounders getting points from this game.

To finish June, Seattle plays Portland in their second rivalry game of the season. It should go without saying that in these games anything can happen, but it is important to note that the Timbers have never won an MLS game in Seattle. So, expecting to pick up at least a point here is completely reasonable.

Then the team travels to play current last place in the west Colorado. Teams always struggle to adjust to the altitude in Denver, but the Rapids currently have the second worst offense in the league; only Seattle are worse. With players fully recovering from injury by this time, Seattle's offense will have greatly improved, giving them the edge.

In the final game before the transfer window opens, Seattle travels to Foxborough to take on the Revs. New England is a middle of the pack team in MLS this year with a mediocre 4-2-2 home record, so getting a result against them is entirely within reason.

After our previous two slow starts, Lagerwey turned teams getting 1.0 and 1.26 pts per game to teams finishing the season at 1.82 and 1.87 pts per game by filling lineup holes in the summer transfer window. These complete about-faces were not due to luck, but rather a very capable GM both recognizing the issues in the Sounders roster and putting forth the resources needed to fix them. From Lodeiro in 2016 to Rodríguez and Leerdam in 2017, all of our summer signings directly filled a need in our roster and greatly impacted our team's success moving forward. Our current season is not a carbon copy of our previous two, mostly because of the severely high number of injuries the Sounders have been dealing with. However, based on my analysis of our last two seasons and our upcoming schedule, I believe that the roster as built can attain the minimum of nine points needed from seven games before the transfer window. I also believe that all this has shown that our front office and coaching staff deeply care about our team and have earned the fans' benefit of the doubt.

The Sounders have survived through seemingly dire situations in the past, each time finding their way by addressing the team's failings. So, Is the Sky Really Falling? For the moment, I would say no. With the recent good news that Bruin and Rodríguez will likely be featuring this weekend, I think things in Sounderland will finally start to pick up. But, if the Sounders fail in the next run of fixtures to pick up the nine points that I believe they need to make the playoffs, then yes; indeed, the sky really will be falling.

Sources:

- https://www.americansocceranalysis.com

- https://www.mlssoccer.com/standings

- https://www.soundersrfc.com

- Link to Spread Sheet: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1oJeeEXsUHYml12lgmdb8OBQN5uJciIqJ