BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi

Two analysts from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch have studied data from Lok Sabha elections over the past 40 years to conclude what pollsters often share as conventional wisdom: that a high voter turnout is likely to be a vote for change.

The analysts, Jyotivardhan Jaipuria and Anand Kumar, say they have found that voter turnout in general elections in India has gone up by over 4 per cent only on three occasions over the last 40 years. Twice, it resulted in a change of government at the Centre.

The once that it did not was the 1984 elections, which saw a high turnout, but saw the Congress returned with a bigger majority. "The third instance was the emotional election post the assassination of Indira Gandhi which saw Rajiv Gandhi getting elected. So high turnout has been accompanied by a more emotive electorate," the two analysts said.

In the five phases of polling held so far in these general elections, voter turnout has averaged 68 per cent as compared to 58 per cent across the whole election in 2009, according to Election Commission data. That, say the Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts, could indicate an advantage for the BJP and its national alliance, the NDA.

However, polling has only taken place for 232 Lok Sabha seats so far. Another 311 seats will go to the polls across four phases between April 24 and May 12. Votes will be counted on May 16.

TV Mohandas Pai, chairman of Manipal Global Education and former director of Infosys, told NDTV on Monday, "The voter turnout is up by 10 per cent across India and the message there is for change, for something new... Will it result in a BJP government, a Khichdi government of all kind of other parties coming together? I don't know, but certainly there's change in the air and that is very good."

(Watch the full interview here)

After the conclusion of the biggest phase of elections on April 17, the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi tweeted, "Large turnout in the phases held till now shows Congress' departure is certain! Focus must now be on electing a stable & strong Govt."

Most opinion polls have predicted that the BJP will be the single largest party. However, Indian elections are notoriously hard to forecast. Opinion polls wrongly predicted a victory for a BJP-led alliance in elections in 2004 and underestimated the Congress's winning margin in 2009.

The Bank of America analysts also noted that the voting percentage is going up secularly, partly led by a younger population and partly by greater awareness created by the Election Commission.

"The last Lok Sabha election too saw a 2 per cent rise in voter turnout. If we look at the state elections over the past five years, most of them have seen a higher voter turnout relative to that in the previous elections... So part of the increase in voter turnout may just be a natural phenomenon," the analysts said.