Rockets general manager Daryl Morey left the door to the free-agent market open just a crack.

The Rockets are "probably likely" to stick with their plan to remain above the salary cap and spend the free-agency period putting the band back together by signing many, if not all, of their five free agents.

Morey did say there are "possible opportunities we have to explore that are bigger. But I think they're unlikely."

Those unlikely "possible opportunities" are enough for the Rockets to do some big-game hunting when free-agent season opens Wednesday, but without the confidence of the past two summers.

This summer's top free-agent targets - big men LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love - are considered much greater long shots than the top players of the past two offseasons that had the Rockets in the middle of the annual free-agent frenzy.

Two years ago, the Rockets landed the top free agent - center Dwight Howard. Last summer, they chased Carmelo Anthony and were on the brink of a deal with Chris Bosh. When the free-agency season opens this year, they are expected to make the customary run at the top free agents but will go in knowing the likelihood of coming away with a third headliner to team with Howard and James Harden is less likely than the possibility of locking up their own players.

That process actually begins Tuesday - the deadline to make qualifying offers to Pat Beverley and KJ McDaniels, making them restricted free agents and giving the Rockets the right to match any offers they receive.

Corey Brewer, Josh Smith and Jason Terry will be unrestricted free agents.

As long as the Rockets keep their rights to their own free agents, they would be considered to be over the salary cap and would have a mid-level exception (worth $5.464 million) to spend.

Targeting a Spaniard

Morey has been clear he will make another run at point guard Sergio Llull, 27, his 2009 second-round pick who has since starred in Spain.

Reports in Spain have had the Rockets offering far more than the mid-level exception, but to do that they would have to move far under the salary cap, a step they are unlikely to take to get Llull because it would likely cost them so much of last season's rotation.

If the Rockets stay over the cap and use most or all of their mid-level exception on Llull, they could be in a good position to bring back their free agents. They have early Bird rights on Brewer, allowing them to spend up to $8.2 million to sign him over the cap. They have full Bird rights on Terry, allowing them to exceed the cap as necessary to sign him.

Smith and McDaniels would be tougher. The Rockets will be limited to a much smaller offer for Smith than he might receive elsewhere (though he also will be paid by the Detroit Pistons, potentially making him willing to stay where he's happy). McDaniels, who smartly signed just a one-year deal as a rookie second-round pick, dramatically outplayed his draft position with the Philadelphia 76ers and could receive offers. If McDaniels does not sign the Rockets' qualifying offer, they would have to use some of their mid-level to keep him.

All of that could depend on if they get in the chase for one of the star free agents.

If the Rockets were to land Aldridge or Love, they would have to do some major maneuvering to carve out the cap room (barring an even more unlikely sign-and-trade arrangement) and likely would lose most of their own free agents.

A high price to pay

To create that kind of space, they would almost certainly have to deal Trevor Ariza, who is the third-highest-paid Rocket after Howard and Harden, without taking back corresponding contracts and renounce their rights to most of their own free agents.

They could keep their rights to Beverley while opening the cap room because his cap hold - the number assigned to a free agent that counts against the cap - is so small. But to open enough cap room for a third high-paid player, the Rockets would have to renounce their rights to Brewer, Smith and Terry, with Brewer and Smith certain to receive offers in excess of the minimum the Rockets could offer if they gave up their rights.

Back to reality

The more likely course is the Rockets will stay over the cap to keep their own players. They won't worry if they miss with a home-run swing on a pitch in the dirt, having gone for top free agents unsuccessfully and taken the criticism that followed. That makes them willing again to try "possible opportunities" that are "probably likely" to send them back to their own roster.

"I think you always go into the offseason hoping to have a stronger team next year than the year before," Morey said. "We said that last year. Even though there were a lot of ups and downs and twists and turns along the way, we thought we'd have a stronger team going into the playoffs and we did.

"We had a stronger team going into the playoffs, and we'll try to have an even stronger team going into the next playoffs."