James Morris says trivial debate has let Jeremy Corbyn ‘emerge as leading light’ and candidates should address major issues such as immigration and growth

The Labour leadership candidates have largely addressed “petty” third-tier issues and have not shown how they can rebuild trust on growth, spending, national identity and immigration, Ed Miliband’s lead pollster, James Morris, has said.

His report warns that the electorate will be expecting to hear policies from the successful candidate immediately on these critical areas as opposed to lower order issues such as rail nationalisation or free schools.

He argues: “The pettiness of the initial leadership debate let Jeremy Corbyn emerge as the leading light, the only candidate setting out a programme for the future – albeit a throwback to the past.”

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Miliband has refused to intervene in the election process, even to encourage a range of Labour voters to register to become party supporters to have a say in the leadership. But the advice from Morris about voters’ concerns will reflect thinking inside part of the former leader’s office.

Newly released data cited in the report published by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, the firm Morris works for, includes:

65% of voters have serious concerns that Labour would borrow more than Britain can afford, including 63% in Scotland.



64% have serious concerns that Labour are too soft on immigration, including 61% in Scotland.



Half of English people have serious concerns that Labour “put people from other countries before the interests of England”.



By 74% to 15%, voters prefer parties offering “concrete plans for sensible change” to parties offering “a big vision for radical change”.



Commenting on the leadership campaign so far, Morris says: “Watching leadership candidates debating issues like rail nationalisation is akin to watching candidates for England football manager squabbling over who is the best left-back in the championship. Right or wrong, it doesn’t much matter.



“Instead of picking at third-tier issues, Labour should focus on three things: a clear purpose, economic trust and rehabilitation on immigration and identity.”

Drawing on his polls over five years and focus groups, Morris urges the party to have an open mind about its key vulnerabilities with the electorate, and not to resort to wishful thinking.

He says Labour should try to retain aspects of “Milbandism”, including the idea of an economy that grows because everyone has a stake in its future – a concept Hillary Clinton is adopting in her presidential campaign in the US.

Immigration, he says, is “a vortex, sucking in concerns about access to public services, jobs, crime, welfare and basic governmental competence”. Seventy-three per cent of voters think it is “essential to reduce the number of migrants coming to Britain” with only 13% disagreeing.

By 63% to 20% voters think Labour should be tougher on immigration rather than more positive about its benefits. Tackling this issue starts with the party genuinely empathising with legitimate concerns, the report says.

Morris says that although Miliband was right to criticise aspects of the previous Labour government he did not choose the right issues to set out that distance.

He says that by September 2010 the die was almost cast since, by 50% to 28%, voters thought Labour should be ashamed rather than proud of its record in government. Fighting the 2015 general election on the basis that 1997-2007 was successful was never a recipe for success, Morris argues.

His intervention came as the Labour MP Jon Cruddas warned that Labour is nearly as toxic in the south of England as the Conservatives are in the north. In his study into why Labour lost, Cruddas said he had found 42% of voters in the south said they will never vote Labour, compared with 43% of voters in the north.

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“The full significance of this for Labour lies in the fact that it must win 27 seats in the south to gain a majority of one on a uniform national swing,” he wrote in a blog post for the New Statesman.

The gap in “toxicity” between Labour and the Tories has also closed slightly since 2011, he said, with 36% of the overall electorate now saying they will never vote Labour and 38% saying they will never vote Conservative. He said the perception of Labour as toxic was most marked among the retired, with 45% saying they would never vote Labour.

“Unless Labour detoxifies its brand with the grey vote it will find it all but impossible to win a majority again,” Cruddas said. His review also found that, overall, voters do not back an anti-austerity message but instead believe the country must live within its means and make cutting the deficit its top priority.

Cruddas was policy chief under Miliband and nominated Corbyn for the leadership, although he has said he would not vote for the Islington North MP.