Chastened Assad faces up to reality By Jim Muir

BBC News in Beirut Published duration 5 August 2015

image copyright Getty Images image caption President Bashar al-Assad admitted to reduced ambitions

Like his father Hafez before him, the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, has proven to be a ruthless survivor who will do whatever it takes to keep himself and his ruling circle in power.

But recent months have seen him acknowledge that he is living in straitened times and will have to reduce his ambitions if he is to avoid a collapse.

Assad's recognition of reality began after a string of defeats in the early spring, including the loss of a second provincial capital, Idlib in the north-west.

In early May, the president made a rare public acknowledgement of the setbacks. But he dismissed them as the ups and downs of a long-term war in which there were hundreds of battles, some won, some lost.

Since then, more battles were lost. The militants of so-called Islamic State (IS) stormed across the desert and captured the important town of Palmyra and nearby oil and gas fields north-east of Damascus later in May, facing little resistance.

Now Assad's tone has changed, and become yet more realistic.

In a televised speech on 26 July, he admitted that his forces suffered a chronic manpower problem, and that the rebels were getting increased support from their Saudi, Qatari and Turkish backers.

image copyright Reuters image caption Rebel fighters celebrate driving government troops out of Idlib

Syria, he said, would have to prioritise, and give up some areas rather than risk allowing key positions to collapse.

His Iranian and Hezbollah allies have been urging him to retrench, because they can't help him control the whole country.

Already the regime holds barely a third of Syria's landmass, though it is the most "useful" bits containing most of the big cities, the coast and more than half the population.

The militants of IS are reckoned to hold about 50%, much of it desert.

A motley array of rebel factions dominated by Islamists, including the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, hold other areas in the north and west, while "moderates" control some of the south. And the Kurds have carved out an enclave along the northern border with Turkey. It's a five-way split.

Assad clearly expects to have to give more ground in order to retain the core - Damascus, Homs, Hama, and the Latakia coast at a minimum.

image copyright AP image caption Peace envoy Staffan de Mistura had a gloomy prognosis for the future

That could mean having to give up the half of Aleppo he still controls - Syria's biggest city - as well as Deraa in the south. Some expect him to lose Hama too.

Is that to be Syria's fate, divided into warring entities, in constant friction, or perhaps relapsing into a messy and unstable coexistence?

De facto partition is not just a possibility, it is already there. The question is whether Syria can somehow be reunited.

The special peace envoy, Staffan de Mistura, was not optimistic when he reported back last week to the Security Council on his two months of talks with many of the players in the Syria game.

He spoke of the "risk of a multi-generational conflict that, with each passing month, reduces the prospects of ever restoring Syria as a unified state".

image copyright AP image caption President Hafez Assad was a hardliner

His proposal for parallel working groups tackling four Syrian issues raised little hope for serious progress - he admitted that he had felt obliged "to seek out even the remotest possibilities for a political solution, even if sadly the logic of assuming a military victory continues."

It is the rebels who currently have the whiff of victory in their nostrils, while Assad is busy battening down the hatches to survive.

The Americans, Saudis, Turkey and Qatar are now working together much more seriously in support of rebel groups, supplying them with TOW missiles and plenty of money.

There are many potential scenarios, including a rebel victory, although that is something the Americans have never wanted as it would open the way for an Islamist takeover - "black flags flying over Damascus".

A US-steered peace process would likely kick in at the point when the rebels seriously threaten the regime enclave.

The deal would be a truce between four of the five entities - regime, mainly Islamist rebels in the north, "moderate" rebels in the south, and the Kurds - and perhaps some kind of federal arrangement. And they would unite to drive out IS from its eastern strongholds, with western support.

image copyright AP image caption The IS flag has been hoisted on top of the castle in Palmyra

Iran might back a settlement which would leave the Syrian state structure in place, securing Tehran's strategic investment - but minus Assad and his circle, with Iran engineering his removal.

"I can't imagine any scenario under which Assad could survive in the long run - but that doesn't mean he won't cling on desperately, even if Iran and the Russians want him out," said a well-placed diplomat.

"But a phase is ending, and things have to change. He has no more rabbits left in his hat."

Bashar al-Assad:

Born on 11 September 1965, the second son of President Hafez al-Assad.

Graduated from the College of Medicine of the University of Damascus in 1988, intending to pursue a career in this field.

Between 1988 and 1992 he specialised in ophthalmology at Tishrin military hospital in Damascus, before going to London to pursue further studies.

After the death of his older brother, Basil, in a high-speed car crash in 1994, he was hastily recalled from the UK and thrust into the spotlight.

Entered the military academy at Homs, north of Damascus, and rose through the ranks to become an army colonel in January 1999.

In the last years of his father's life, he emerged as an advocate of modernisation and the internet, becoming president of the Syrian Computer Society.

He was also put in charge of a domestic anti-corruption drive, which reportedly resulted in prominent figures from the old leadership being put on trial.

Became president following his father's death on 10 June 2000.

In his inaugural address, Mr Assad promised wide-ranging reforms, but the so-called Damascus Spring was short-lived. It is thought reform was stymied by the old guard loyal to his father.