It’s funny how the accuracy of the Apple rumor mill ebbs and flows. A few months ago, we heard rumblings that Apple was planning to release the Apple Watch 2 in September of 2016, setting the stage for a nice 18-month refresh cycle. More recently, though, all signs pointed to an Apple Watch 2 unveiling set for March ahead of an April release. This scenario was first brought to the forefront by the typically reliable Mark Gurman and was seemingly corroborated by a recent report claiming that Apple Watch 2 trial production was on pace to begin later this month.

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Well, it turns out that we have some bad news for anyone who was hoping to pick up a next-gen Apple Watch in just a few months. According to a report from TechCrunch’s Matthew Panzarino, an Apple Watch 2 – complete with newer casings and improved battery life – won’t see the light of day in April, perhaps indicating that the original 18-month refresh cycle report may have been spot-on.

Now that’s not to say that there won’t be any cosmetic and otherwise minor updates to the Apple Watch. Panzarino still leaves open the possibility that Apple in March might still unveil new “design partnerships” and accessories to perhaps keep Apple Watch momentum alive and well. At the most, Panzarino writes that we might see a minor Apple Watch update with a FaceTime camera early this year, but certainly not a “full Watch 2.0.”

Bolstering the claim that a full-fledged Apple Watch 2 isn’t currently on the horizon, Panzarino touched base with Creative Strategies analyst Ben Bajarin who articulated that he’s seen no evidence emanating out of Apple’s supply chain that would signal a notable Apple Watch 2 update is in the works.

All in all, it’ll be interesting to see what type of refresh cycle the Apple Watch falls into. Perhaps Apple has learned a cold hard lesson from its experience with the iPad and now realizes that not every product lends itself to an annual refresh cycle like the iPhone.