The horizon of the next federal election is coming into view now and, looking over the political landscape, we can see now how the world has turned since 2011.

Using an unusually large random probability sample (4,134 Canadian adults) — covering the on- and offline segments of Canada’s population, as well as both those who rely on landlines and cell phones — we can chart where voters are right now. Our data also provide methods for analyzing voter mobility since the last election.

(SEE CHARTS BELOW)

With the Liberals at around 36 points, the Conservatives at roughly 27 and the NDP with 22, voters are in a profoundly different place than they were when the Conservatives won their majority in 2011. Both the New Democrats and Conservatives have bled support to the reinvigorated Liberal Party.

There’s a third leg to the stool, however, and it helps explain how the Liberals have jumped to almost twice their support in 2011: the return of those who didn’t vote in 2011. We’re guessing these are discouraged, erstwhile Liberal supporters who could not summon any enthusiasm for the Ignatieff ticket.

So are the Liberals under Justin Trudeau re-establishing themselves in the once-coveted political centre? There is some evidence that this may be the case. There’s another interpretation, one less favourable to Liberal prospects: Much of their new support may be due to ‘arriviste’ supporters deserting from both the left and right — meaning there are some internal tensions in this new Liberal constituency. The emotional engagement required to retain them, and to get them to actually vote, might not yet exist.

Recent federal elections have been won and lost through the dynamics of emotional engagement and turnout. These factors have strongly favoured the Conservatives in the past — but this is a different landscape for the Harper administration, and the party’s political capital is running quite low.

There are some clear patterns here which suggest signal — rather than noise — is driving the trajectories. The clearest pattern is the Liberal rise, which begins with Trudeau’s arrival as party leader and has been climbing pretty steadily since.

The Liberals surpassed the Conservatives a year and a half ago. This is not a honeymoon period, not a blip of the sort Michael Ignatieff enjoyed after his convention win and during the prorogation brouhaha. The NDP and Conservatives both have been on the skids for some time now, and the Liberals have been picking up the marbles.

Turning to the demographic patterns underlying these movements, we see some interesting patterns. The Conservatives dominate the Prairies, while the Liberals lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. More astonishing, however, is the sizeable lead that the Liberals have built up in Ontario. The Liberals also have a small lead in British Columbia but, given the rather unpredictable nature of the province’s political climate, it would be unwise to place odds just yet.

The Liberals lead across all age groups — including youth, where they previously struggled to make headway. The Conservatives, however, enjoy a comparative advantage among seniors — a major advantage, given that seniors tend to be the most reliable voting demographic in the country. The Conservatives do quite well with men and poorly with women; the party likely would be reduced to third place in an alternate reality where voting was restricted to women. As usual, the Liberals lead quite handily among university graduates and they enjoy a sizeable lead with new Canadians.

Throughout the 1990s, it was rare to see confidence in national direction drop below 70 points. It now stands at 40 per cent. Confidence in federal direction — which used to be twinned with national direction — is just over 34 per cent. These are very daunting numbers for any incumbent government and they indicate deep pessimism about the future and a growing consensus that stagnation has replaced progress for most Canadians.

Trudeau’s disapproval rating has been rising at an alarming pace. As more Canadians become familiar with him, their attitude toward Trudeau seems to lean toward disapproval.

These very poor grades, coupled with even poorer marks for democratic trust, pose profound challenges for the unpopular Stephen Harper government — already afflicted by the voter fatigue that tends to infect even the most popular governments over time. The Conservatives still enjoy the support of a unified base but, increasingly, it appears that won’t be enough to offset these other challenges.

Our rather basic issue tracking indicator shows that the economy continues to dominate the public mind — much as social issues like health care dominated a decade ago. This shift has favoured the Conservative party, but it remains to be seen whether a growing sense of dissatisfaction with economic growth can be played against the government by the Liberals and the NDP.

We now see social issues trending upward to tie with the economy as an election issue, which may reflect growing concerns about income stagnation and highly stratified growth at the very top of the income ladder. The decline in concern about fiscal issues (taxes and deficits) is linked to a growing belief in the public mind that austerity and minimal government have not been the promised prescription for prosperity. On the other hand, the fairly low number for ethics and accountability as an election issue suggests that concerted Opposition attacks on Senate spending and related matters have not gained much real traction — and that the opposition parties might want to focus their attention elsewhere in the coming year.

In a world where trust in politicians is sliding into single-digit territory, Canadians don’t seem to care much for any of our leaders. There is, however, a fairly clear lean against Stephen Harper; only 27 per cent of respondents said they approve of the way he’s been doing his job — which ties with his popular vote support. Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair are basically tied in approval ratings, at 41 and 40 points respectively. Mr. Mulcair has a higher number of people declining to express an opinion about his performance but a lower number of people saying they have a negative view of him; the reverse is the case for Mr. Trudeau.

The Liberals should take warning, however: Despite the party’s recent good fortune, Trudeau’s disapproval rating has been rising at an alarming pace. As more Canadians become familiar with him, their attitude toward Trudeau seems to lean toward disapproval.

Since none of the parties are clearly in majority territory (although the Liberals are knocking on the door, particularly with their lead in Ontario and Quebec), we decided to have a look at the coalition issue. Two things are clear.

First, a large majority would prefer a coalition government to a return to the polls if the Conservatives win a minority in the next election. Less than one in four would want to see Conservatives go it alone — which suggests the bar has to be set pretty high — around 14 points higher than where the Conservatives are stuck right now.

Second, the preferred option is some form of Liberal-NDP coalition — with an overall expression of indifference as to who should lead. This suggests that, even though Justin Trudeau has the high ground right now, much of the politically promiscuous progressive vote might switch to the NDP if Trudeau stumbles — and for about half of all voters, a progressive coalition of any stripe is preferable to a continued Conservative government.

Frank Graves is the founder and president of EKOS Research.

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A note on methodology:

This study was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cellphone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cellphone, as well as cellphone-only households and landline only households.

This methodology is not to be confused with the increasing proliferation of non-probability opt-in online panels which have recently been incorrectly reported in major national media with inappropriate margin of error estimates.

The field dates for this survey are March 27-April 3, 2014. In total, a random sample of 4,134 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 3,504 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.