Liberals, like Jeff Merkley, may cause as many headaches for Senate Republicans as tea partiers caused Democrats in the past four years. Liberal 'hell no' caucus rises

The defeat of the Keystone XL pipeline in the Senate marked a major show of muscle for next year’s new hell-no caucus: liberals.

Liberal Senate Democrats united to block the controversial project, even though their imperiled Democratic colleague Mary Landrieu of Louisiana begged them not to at a Democratic Caucus lunch on Tuesday afternoon.


It was a remarkable move for a group that has stood behind Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) over the years, as he sought to protect vulnerable moderates, like Landrieu and some of her now-ousted colleagues, from taking tough votes on divisive environmental, health care and social issues.

But red-state Democrats like Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mark Begich of Alaska are on their way out, and liberals like Jeff Merkley, Bernie Sanders and Sheldon Whitehouse — with Elizabeth Warren leading the way on messaging — may cause as many headaches for Senate Republicans as tea partyers caused Democrats in the past four years.

( Also on POLITICO: Greens take Keystone protest to Landrieu's home)

“I will use whatever tools I have as a senator to protect the environment,” said Merkley, a liberal from Oregon.

Asked if he could ever envision himself performing a Rand Paul-style talking filibuster in the Republican Senate, Whitehouse of Rhode Island replied: “Oh, of course. We will have more tools in the minority than we had in the majority.”

Progressives are girding for battle with Republicans over campaign finance law, consumer protections and women’s health care. But the early battle lines appear increasingly drawn around environmental policy, where Democratic centrists may defect from leadership in next year’s Senate and help Republicans pass legislation strongly opposed by liberal senators.

“They actually want to tear down environmental protection and regulation in every public comment that I’ve heard a Republican make. Clearly, there’s a challenge coming. And we have to be prepared to meet that challenge,” Whitehouse said. “With respect to climate, you can’t just go back and fix it and make it right with whoever was hurt by some stupid policy.”

Still, liberals’ Keystone victory is likely to be short-lived. Next year, Republicans could boast as many as 54 votes in the Senate if they defeat Landrieu, and combined with centrist Democratic supporters from red and purple states Keystone’s eventual passage seems assured. But the Keystone vote is only the beginning of a slew of votes next year on Republican proposals likely aimed at increasing U.S. energy production and rolling back regulations the GOP finds burdensome — votes sure to provoke a fight with Senate liberals.

( Also on POLITICO: Protesters bring 'pipeline' to Landrieu's front yard)

With Republicans able to steamroll Democrats in the House with a historic majority, next year’s Senate Democratic minority becomes the last line of congressional defense for liberals and progressives. And as the GOP plans its agenda, members of the party’s left wing are vowing that there’s still fight left in them despite their diminished influence: If provoked, they say they are ready to use Senate procedure to fight the majority’s agenda tooth and nail.?

Indeed, Whitehouse and other progressive senators said that while other economic and social issues worry them, they don’t believe the damage that Republicans could do by unwinding environmental regulations can be undone. Given that sense of urgency, climate change may be the issue that draws the strongest challenge from an increasingly influential bloc of Senate liberals as Republicans prepare to take both chambers of Congress for the first time in eight years.

The concerns among Democrats as they brace for Republicans to set the Senate agenda range much more broadly than solely green and environmental issues. Merkley mentioned campaign finance and weakening the regulations instituted by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

“Social Security and Medicare, the environment, education. There are going to be lots of opportunities for them to show their true colors,” said Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.).

( Also on POLITICO: Keystone bill comes down to … Durbin?)

And even some of the avowed centrists who are seeking to move bipartisan legislation on infrastructure and energy policy say there are going to be issues where they are prepared to loudly confront the GOP majority.

“I’m not going to be part of sitting down if the Republicans are trying to roll through legislation that I fundamentally disagree with,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who voted against Harry Reid as Democratic leader. “I’m not going to let them defund Planned Parenthood, for example … they might try to do this as an appeasement to their base.”

The best news about a Republican majority in the Senate is that the Republican minority is now gone. They were just a god-awful minority.”

But McCaskill is with Republicans on Keystone, as are a number of Democrats who will return next year in the minority. As the first major, divisive post-election vote, the movement on Keystone is bringing out strong rhetoric from environmentalists who fear this is only a preview of the stiff headwinds they will face next year.

“The idea that people are supporting a project that will significantly increase carbon emissions is totally insane. It’s an absurd proposal,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with the Democrats and is perhaps the most liberal member of the Senate. “Obviously, I will disagree with Republicans on virtually every issue, but on this issue of climate change, the Republican position is an embarrassment to the American people.”

How all this plays out depends entirely on what direction the GOP takes in January. The Republicans have long staked out Keystone as one of their first priorities next year, but McConnell has also vowed to challenge the Obama administration’s proposals for regulating and limiting emissions from coal-fired power plants.

And Republicans consistently have preferred to “streamline” environmental regulation for infrastructure projects — an issue that will come up when Congress has to pass a new transportation bill by the end of May. But Republicans could also seek a less confrontational agenda out of the gate, focusing on small-bore policies previously passed by the House, like repealing Obamacare’s medical device tax and broader ideas like tax reform that are less ideologically divisive.

While they expect plenty of fights with Democrats next year, GOP leaders are downplaying the potential for a new emboldened Democratic minority to derail their priorities and turn the Senate into two more years of failed procedural votes and long hours of boring, empty quorum calls.

John Cornyn is pictured. | AP Photo

“It’s actually going to be much better than some people think. Because there is an enormous appetite on the Democratic side to actually be relevant,” said Senate Republican Whip John Cornyn of Texas. “I don’t expect anybody to give up their ideological convictions overnight, but I’ve had several conversations with some pretty liberal Democrats. … They said: ‘We can choose to govern in the center and we can try to find some common ground.’ I think that’s going to happen.”

With the goal of passing sweeping climate-change or environmental-protection legislation no longer possible, liberal Democrats are instead eyeing a long game: knock down GOP proposals that they disagree with when they can hold the line against 60 votes. If they can’t, rely on President Barack Obama to quash them with his veto pen. And hold the line until 2016, when Democrats hope to retake the Senate majority and litigate climate change in the presidential race.

“On climate, it’s unlikely that we’re going to be able to find a middle ground given the rhetoric we’ve heard during the campaign. So it’s very likely to be a fight,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who won a contested Senate primary by running to the left. “But it’s very likely that we legislatively play everything to a tie. … Then, in the next election cycle, the voters can decide whether they want to move backwards or forward.”

Even as they vow to fight Republicans at every turn on issues that fundamentally divide liberals and conservatives, left-leaning Democrats insist that they will not do so seeking retaliation against a Republican minority that stymied their economic, environmental and social priorities for so long with filibusters and delay. Those days, they insist, are gone — leaving liberals to somehow find a balance between fighting for their convictions and not drawing the same charges of obstruction that have dominated Democratic messaging for years.

“The best news about a Republican majority in the Senate is that the Republican minority is now gone,” Whitehouse said. “They were just a god-awful minority.”

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