Show caption Cumbria will suffer the most from Brexit, according to research. Photograph: John Morrison/Alamy Economics Brexit will hit north of England the hardest, says thinktank Research by IPPR North shows northern regions are more dependent on trade with EU than the south

Richard Partington @RJPartington Thu 9 Nov 2017 07.01 GMT Share on Facebook

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Brexit will have nearly twice the impact on the economy of the north of England as it will on London, according to a new report.

Northern regions are relatively more dependent on trade with the EU than the south, research from the IPPR North thinktank found. About 10.2% of the north’s gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the value of output of goods and services, is dependent on the EU, compared with 7.2% for inner London.

The findings will prove worrying for the upper half of the country, where many areas voted to leave the EU in the referendum a year ago. The forecasts made in the thinktank’s annual assessment of the regional economy, State of the North 2017, shows how Brexit will have a major impact, especially in areas that are already struggling or stagnated.

Cumbria is hardest affected in the assessment, suffering a 13.2% hit to GDP, followed by northern Lincolnshire at 12.8%. The report suggests many northern regions are 50%-60% more dependent on EU markets for their prosperity than London.

Many Britons voted to leave the EU feeling the economic recovery since the financial crisis had failed to improve their lives, made worse by government cuts. However, commentators have argued the economic consequences of the vote weren’t always clearly spelled out or were ignored.



The IPPR North report cited one Newcastle heckler, who, when confronted with the downside of the EU vote ahead of the poll, said: “That’s your bloody GDP, not ours.”

The annual health check also finds millennials and generation Z citizens will make up over 50% of the northern electorate for the first time by 2030. Still, the region will need 2.7 million more working-age people to support its ageing population – or for people to retire later.

The report also finds more than 40% of all northern jobs are in occupations at high risk of being taken by robots or other types of automation. The report said the government should devolve further power to the north so that “northern millennials can take charge”.

Luke Raikes, senior research fellow at IPPR North, said: “They already clipped Theresa May’s wings in this year’s general election and will have no qualms in condemning the government’s watered down plans for the north of the country.”