PARIS–They adore him from a distance. And now Europeans are about to get a look at Barack Obama, in person and up close.

Though the precise timetable is still being developed, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee appears poised to test his burgeoning international cachet with a tour of European capitals that is expected to extend to precision stops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Don't be surprised if you see Obama on the 4th of July in Baghdad or Kabul, with stops in London and Paris on the way back and possibly more cities as well," a Paris-based source familiar with the efforts of his advance team told the Toronto Star.

Three French government officials confirmed the anticipated arrival of Obama in separate interviews with the Star, even as President Nicolas Sarkozy saw off George W. Bush on the weekend on his last state visit to Paris.

The contrast between Obama and the sitting American president could not be greater than today, as Bush spent his swan-song swing through Europe in a state of muted apology, telling the Times of London he now regrets the combative phraseology – "Bring 'em on," "Mission accomplished" – he used to frame the early days of his project to remake Iraq.

Public opinion in Europe appears already to have consigned Bush to history's periphery with equal parts relish and relief. It looks today to Obama with a sense of awe and wonder every bit as intense as the rock-star receptions he draws stateside.

The story by numbers is 52 per cent favouring Obama compared to 15 per cent for presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain, according to respondents to a recent five-country survey of Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Russia. The poll, conducted for the Daily Telegraph, shows the French falling more profoundly for Obama, by a margin of 65-8.

Nowhere is that adulation more apparent than Paris, where "L'effet Obama" – the Obama Effect – is the stuff of animated conversation.

"Obama rings our bells because he is a black man. And also because he was among the first to speak out against the war in Iraq," said Jean-Louis Beltrand, a Paris bookseller.

"It raises my spirits just to know an Obama is possible in America today. It makes me see the United States in a much more familiar light."

Paris officials downplay the notion Obama's stay will include any major public appearances. Though one projected he would easily draw vast hordes along the Champs Élysées – "Maybe not as many as the Pope, but huge I am sure" – Obama's tour is aimed clearly at demonstrating to the U.S. electorate his potentially galvanizing effect on sometimes wayward allies.

"It is a French fact that we love `good' Americans and we love to hate `bad' Americans," said Zaki Laidi, a senior research fellow at Sciences Po, the Paris-based political studies school.

"But it is also true that this honeymoon of better relations with the United States never lasts. It never has in the past. So there is no reason to assume it will this time, even with Obama as president."

Indeed, a similar note of caution is sounded throughout the French diplomatic corps, where those familiar with the realpolitik of the trans-Atlantic relations doubt Obama will butter anyone's baguette with charisma alone.

"Once you go beyond the welcome image and style of Obama, we are not anticipating dramatic changes in the relationship with America," one highly placed official told the Star on background.

"We have already seen a warming of relations in the final phase of George Bush, a change in Washington's tone toward greater multilateralism. And the same constraints Bush faces on the key issues – climate change, soaring energy prices, the faltering economy – will still be there. America's fundamental interests will still be there as before."

A spokesperson at Obama's campaign headquarters in Washington did not respond to repeated requests for comment on his pending travels. One of the questions left unanswered was whether the campaign is wary of overselling the international Obamamania to Americans, thereby scaring away swing voters uncomfortable with the world telling them how to vote.

A senior Paris-based diplomat suggested that embedded in that question is yet another reason for Obama's extraordinary global appeal.

"You look at the mistakes the U.S. made in Iraq and how they compounded it with the failed attempt to tell the Middle East countries they all would become democracies. When the backlash came, it wasn't just American democracy that suffered the black eye. It was all democracies, including France," the diplomat said.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

"And now, topping it all, comes this moment of redemption where America provides us all with this profound lesson in democracy through these amazing primaries – and in the end, putting forward a black man who opposed the very war that started all these problems in the first place. Incredible."

French historian Jacques Le Goff, who has written extensively on the glacial pace of reforms that have made Europe what it is today, cannot help but wonder at the sheer fact of Obama's political ascendance. You sense more than a little envy in his voice when he says, simply, "Bravo for American democracy.

"I admit I am surprised," said Le Goff. "The United States is very lucky on this fundamental point of progress and change.

"The Bush presidency was a disaster in every sense. But look at them now."

Though plans are not yet in place, diplomats in Paris also anticipate a McCain journey to Europe. While the Republican generates little excitement here, many analysts expect a shift after November's election, regardless of who wins.

"It doesn't matter who the next American president is because France is not pro-Democratic or pro-Republican – France is anti-Bush," said Batélémy Courmont of the Paris-based l'Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques.

"Once Bush is gone, it will completely change the partnership with the Americans for the better. People will view it as the end of the pre-emptive, unilateral American world view that made the broader public incredibly uncomfortable."

Either way, Europe will be watching the final showdown in American politics as a spectator sport second only to soccer.

"We are fascinated to find out what Americans really want – a father figure to guide them or a prodigal son to take them somewhere else," said a senior French official.

"The father figure is usually what American democracy produces and that is certainly what John McCain represents.

"But with Obama, there is a feeling of new possibilities opening."

Read more about: