The idea behind AVR is straightforward: When a voting-eligible person visits a government office like the DMV, they are automatically added to the voter rolls—unless, of course, they choose to opt out. At the time of our study, seventeen states plus the District of Columbia had approved AVR laws (several more have passed AVR in recent months). AVR was credited with boosting turnout in 2016 and lauded for expanding voter rolls ahead of the 2018 election—but again, no research has rigorously examined this claim.

Our study asked whether living in an AVR state increased an individual’s probability of voting. We used logit and linear probability (OLS) models to estimate turnout in AVR states compared to non-AVR states, drawing on data from the Census Current Population Survey (CPS) Voter Supplement. To get at the effect of AVR laws on specific age and income groups, our models interacted an individual’s age and/or income with AVR laws. We also controlled for a range of potentially confounding factors such as an individual’s race, gender, family income, and education, as these are all known to affect the probability that someone turns out to vote. We also adjusted for election characteristics, such as whether a state had a U.S. Senate or gubernatorial election.

Our research found that AVR is, indeed, associated with increased turnout. The overall effect, while statistically significant, is modest. On average, individuals in AVR states are about 1 percentage point more likely to vote, holding constant potentially confounding demographic factors, election characteristics, and other voting laws.

Yet this average effect obscures a much larger relationship between AVR and turnout among two demographic groups: youth and low-income people. People between 18 and 24 who live in AVR states are 6.3 percentage points more likely to turn out. By contrast, AVR is not associated with increased turnout, potentially even a modest decrease in turnout among people over 65. Similarly, the likelihood of turnout among the lowest-income individuals is 4.0 percentage points higher in AVR states. For the highest earners, however, AVR is unrelated to turnout (a coefficient of -0.2 percentage points).