2020 Mississippi Primary Prevew

Tomorrow is the downballot primary in Mississippi and a number of presidential contests. Poll closing times are as follows in ET:

8 – MI, MS, MO || 10 – ND (Dem only) || 11 – ID, WA* (WA is Vote By Mail) || Midnight – HI (GOP only)

MS-Sen: Atop the ballot are the primaries for the Senate seat, which are not seriously contested.

Cindy Hyde-Smith

Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is seeking a full term. A former Democratic legislator from the rural south-central portion of the state who switched parties in 2010, Hyde-Smith was then elected Ag Commissioner as a Republican in 2011, and served two terms in that office before her 2018 appointment. Hyde-Smith has been a backbench mainstream establishment conservative in the Senate, with her tenure capped by an 8-point win in the special election runoff two years ago.

Mike Espy

Ex-Rep. and 2018 nominee Mike Espy (D) is once again Hyde-Smith’s rival. Espy was a congressman from the poor, majority-black Delta region in the 80s before a turn as Clinton’s first Ag secretary in the early 90s. He has good name recognition and establishment support in the state, re-energized by his closer than expected loss two years ago. Espy also has strong appeal to Black voters, as he is only the second serious Black top-level statewide candidate in recent memory. However, he has a significant liability in that he was forced out of his cabinet post over major corruption issues, including an indictment for accepting illegal gifts. An establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, Espy performed decently in 2018 at energizing black and Dem turnout. This year, he has so far had mediocre to good fundraising of a little under a half million.

The 2018 special election race was relatively close, but there is reason to think that Espy is unlikely to have better luck this cycle. The special election last year was oddly-timed, which gave the media a chance to focus on the race – and go all-in for Espy by using some minor Hyde-Smith gaffes to paint her as racist (while also studiously ignoring corruption scandals in Espy’s past). While Hyde-Smith’s political skills are not great, she retained essentially unanimous GOP support. Espy is a more credible candidate than average for Mississippi Dems given the anemic state of the Dem bench, but with Trump on the ballot and Hyde-Smith having two more years of incumbency, it seems unlikely he can garner the requisite crossover support to pull the upset. Thus, Hyde-Smith seems a prohibitive favorite to hold the seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

MS-4 (R): MS-4 is an R+21 seat covering the state’s southeast, including the entire Gulf Coast region, the Hattiesburg and Laurel areas farther north, and a large amount of surrounding rural territory.

Steven Palazzo

Incumbent Steven Palazzo (R) is seeking a sixth term. He is an accountant by trade and has generally leaned toward the antiestablishment side of the GOP caucus in his decade in the House. However, more notably for this contest, Palazzo is one of those sort of strange cases of a backbencher who has no obvious vulnerability but has yet never quite managed to lock down his district. Palazzo has retained strong establishment support, but his fundraising has been mediocre by incumbent standards at under a half million. He is facing three primary opponents this year.

Robert Deming

Biloxi councilman Robert Deming (R) has served seven years on the council for the Gulf Coast city of 45K, including a rotation as Council President. Deming has raised little from donors, but has self-funded $100K for a mediocre warchest overall. He is running as an antiestablishment conservative. While he could have some name recognition and connections from his time in local office, Deming has so far not translated those connections into significant institutional support.

Carl Boyanton

Businessman Carl Boyanton (R) owns a regional fruit and vegetable produce wholesaling company. Boyanton has not fundraised from donors, but has self-funded $150K for a mediocre warchest overall, making him the best-funded of Palazzo’s challengers. He is running as a staunchly antiestablishment conservative. However, he entered the race late and has little prior name recognition or institutional support.

Congressional staffer Samuel Hickman (R) has worked as an aide to Palazzo’s delegation colleague Rep. Trent Kelly (R). Hickman is running as the most establishment-friendly conservative in the field. However, his fundraising does not seem to be enough to run a serious campaign.

Overall, Palazzo looks like the clear favorite in the race and is probably more likely than not to win in one round. However, with low turnout likely (Mississippi has open primaries and no party registration, and there is a decent likelihood a substantial number of Rs cross over), it is possible that his three rivals could hold Palazzo to a runoff. Deming and Boyanton would seem to have roughly equal chances to advance to a second round if one is triggered. Democrats are not contesting this seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

Leaving Mississippi, there is also a mayoral election to discuss this week.

Tempe-Mayor (LRTT): Tempe is a fast-growing inner suburb east of Phoenix with a population of 190K. The city has long been dominated by the main campus of Arizona State, as roughly a quarter of the population consists of students at the massive university. The city is roughly 65% White, 20% Hispanic, and 5% each Black and Asian. Outside of the Campus area at the city’s northern end, the city is relatively homogeneous, with the dominant demographic being upscale white moderate to liberal suburbanites; the city’s PVI of D+9 is liberal-leaning but more moderate than you might expect for a college town. Two candidates are facing off for the Mayoral seat, both Dems, in a Louisiana Rules Top Two format.

Incumbent Mark Mitchell (D), son of former Mayor and 2000s-era ex-Rep. Harry Mitchell (D), is seeking a third term. Mitchell straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, generally a mainstream liberal on economics and bold progressive on cultural issues. His eight years as mayor have generally been regarded as successful in stewarding continued growth in the city. Thus, it was at least a modest surprise when he received a credible challenger this year.

Ex-councilman Corey Woods (D) served eight years on the council before retiring in 2016. Woods, who now serves as an executive at a network of charter schools run by ASU, is of African-American descent. The differences ideologically between Mitchell and Woods are slight, but Woods seems to be marginally more centrist and more clearly in the establishment liberal lane. Woods’s signature issue is advocating for an expansion in the city’s affordable housing stock. He has poached a significant amount of establishment support, though the majority of establishment forces remain behind Mitchell.

Overall, incumbency seems likely to leave Mitchell a marginal favorite, but Woods is a serious challenger who could have a real chance to pull the upset.

There is also a single legislative special today. MI-LD-34 is a Black-majority D+35 seat covering the majority of the city of Flint, including all its north and east sides and parts of its south and west sides (but not areas around downtown). Cynthia Neeley (D), wife of the former incumbent, now-Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D) is a prohibitive favorite in the general over 2013 State Senate candidate Adam Ford (R).