Author: Josh Oremland

College football in Tempe, Arizona has been quite a roller coaster ride over the last half decade. The hiring of head coach Todd Graham after the 2011 season brought about needed change for the Sun Devils. Graham with his notably aggressive defensive style took ASU for an 8 win 2012 season before winning the PAC 12 South division in 2013, just his second with the team. Consecutive 10 win seasons in 2013-2014 made ASU a PAC 12 powerhouse and a national contender (ASU was ranked #6 in the nation a few weeks before the end of the 2014 season).

Before the 2015 season, Graham raved about his football team. Mike Bercovici, the hero at the Coliseum for the popularly known “Jael-Mary,” was about to have his chance as the featured QB of a traditionally prolific offense. ASU’s Sun Devil Stadium was in the midst of a multi-million dollar renovation to the grandstands and the player facility. Even ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit picked ASU to make the 2015 College Football Playoff (man, was that a horrible call). That was the last time the media (and the country) would hear of ASU’s “powerhouse” status. That season, along with the next, ASU would fail to break .500 both in- and out-of-conference while posting some horrific numbers on both sides of the ball.

Todd Graham’s time in Tempe has come and gone. We’ve seen the best of Coach Graham and possibly not even the worst. This season only sees a less-than-convincing win at home over New Mexico State against losses to San Diego State (home) and Texas Tech (away). ASU comes into PAC 12 play 1-2 and playing quite possibly its worst defense. Vegas has taken note, as ASU opens as a 14.5 point underdog at home to #24 Oregon. I certainly hope the coaching search has begun for Athletic Director Ray Anderson.

I am a recent graduate of Arizona State and a lifelong football fan. I’ve seen 2 great seasons of ASU football along with 2 underwhelming seasons. I’ll never forget watching ASU in-person clinch the PAC 12 South with a nail-biting win against UCLA at the Rose Bowl in 2013, and I’ll never forget the entirety of the Notre Dame game, where Sun Devil Stadium hosted its first top-10 vs. top-10 matchup in decades. But as a fan, there are many things that frustrate me too: 1) watching a home game in a half-empty stadium, 2) watching my team make the same mistake over and over again knowing there’s nothing I can do to stop it, and 3) that feeling when I know my team is just simply not good. Every fan has experienced any combination of these at one time or another (even Alabama fans…probably), and these are the signs that tell me that it’s time for a major program change.

In this op-ed, I hope to construct and defend the argument that Todd Graham needs to be fired from ASU, if not now, then at the end of this already-dismal season. I will support my arguments with copious statistics along with my own insight from seeing most of these games first-hand. Please remember that this is my own opinion (although I know it’s shared by quite many) and that I’m doing this is because I’m passionate for my team to be great again. I’ll say it now, and I’ll say it again at the end: I truly respect all Todd Graham has done for the ASU football program. He made the Sun Devils nationally relevant, something no coach can easily do for any team.

General Information:

Offensive Team Stats:

Defensive Team Stats:

I will refer to the 3 tables seen on the previous page quite a lot in this article. The upper table is general season information, including records, key victories, ranking info, and the starting QB(s) for each season. The latter is quite important because it shows continuity in the position, as well as where some seasons went wrong. The middle table has the team stats for the offense over the 2012-2017 seasons (I include this season’s stats to help strengthen my argument despite its partiality). The lower table has defensive statistics quite similarly. The appropriate stats are followed by the associated ranking in FBS (120-130 teams depending on the season). While these tables alone tell quite a story of Todd Graham’s career at ASU, I hope to supplement those numbers with further qualitative information.

After a 6-7 final season under Dennis Erickson, Graham earned himself and his team an 8-win first season in 2012 (including a bowl win against Navy) posting top 25 numbers in points scored per game, total offensive YPG, and rushing YPG, while his defense was stellar against the pass. It’s unbelievable that in Graham’s first season, he posted the third best defense against the pass, when just a few years later, ASU would be dead last in FBS. Winless against the AP top 25, there was plenty of room for improvement.

The 2013 season began with ASU on the outside of the top 25 looking in. A home victory against the Wisconsin Badgers (albeit controversial thanks to a Joel Stave ‘kneel-down’) finally elevated ASU into the AP top 25 (recall the CFP did not begin until 2014). ASU then dropped out of the AP poll the next week, following a road loss to highly ranked Stanford, but regained the status after beating ranked Washington in Tempe. The remainder of the weeks found ASU ranked, with ASU’s biggest win coming in Pasadena to clinch the PAC 12 South. ASU missed a second trip to the Rose Bowl stadium that year after an unfortunate loss to Stanford in the PAC 12 Championship.

The 2014 season saw ASU ranked all but just one week out of the entire season (between a home loss to UCLA and a road victory at the L.A. Coliseum). The signature wins of the year included an OT win over #18 Utah and a shootout win against #8 Notre Dame, both at home. ASU’s amazing season came down-to-earth after a choke in Corvallis to Oregon State while ranked #6 in the nation, and a loss in Tucson two weeks after that to lose the division.

ASU was a combined 7-4 against top 25 teams from 2013-2014. In those seasons, ASU posted top 40 numbers in offensive yards per game, along with passing and rushing YPG (with the exception of rushing YPG in 2014). QB Taylor Kelly was a dual threat player in a shotgun zone-read scheme that seemed to fit his playing style nicely. DT Will Sutton, LB Carl Bradford, DB Damarious Randall, WR Jaelen Strong, and RBs Marion Grice and D.J. Foster headlined these successful ASU squads. The turnover margin was an excellent +1.1 per game; it’s easy to win games with an extra possession on average.

Between 2013 and 2014, the defense really started to show signs of regression. Defensive ranks dropped by as few as 9 spots and as many as 45 spots in 2014. While player turnover was a factor, this can also be attributed to Todd Graham’s several-years’ experience at ASU, meaning that PAC 12 teams that had played him multiple times were beginning to game-plan more efficiently. In 2014, ASU was 106th in passing yards allowed per game, and the Sun Devils were allowing 5.6 yards per play, a pretty large number considering that’s two plays for a fresh set of downs.

After a bowl win against Duke at the end of 2014, it was Mike Bercovici’s turn in handle the reigns at QB for ASU. Berco earned his respect after starting several games in Kelly’s absence in 2014, including the famous Jael-Mary against USC, where he won his first career start just a few miles from his hometown. Bercovici was more of a pure passer than Kelly (who was more apt to run the ball), and this showed quite clearly.

As I mentioned, Graham talked up the 2015 squad more so than any of his past teams. ASU had a confident, proven QB, along with several key offensive skill position players remaining. They were ranked #15 in the preseason AP poll. The problems: the O-line was almost completely brand new, the defense was missing many key players in key positions from the past (DB Demarious Randall was a big loss in the passing game), and ASU continued to run an offensive scheme that was not best suited for Bercovici. All of these factors showed up week 1, playing against a newly revamped Texas A&M squad in a “neutral” NRG Stadium in Houston. I was in attendance for that game, and it took little time for future #1 pick DE Myles Garrett to wreak havoc on ASU’s new O-line. With the defense letting up occasional big plays, ASU was easily outmatched by A&M and lost by double digits. This was the last time ASU has been ranked in the top 25.

The rest of the 2015 season was “highlighted” by extremely poor pass defense along with an inefficient offense. ASU was 127th in passing yards allowed per game (out of 128 FBS teams). Don’t be fooled by the top 20 rushing defense, teams knew they could pass on the Sun Devils and be extremely successful. And the yards per play average? Up to over 6 yards per play. The offense, on the other hand, was out of the top 30 in points per game and rushing YPG. One criticism I have (in hindsight) that year was RB D.J. Foster moving to WR. Foster’s best role in the ASU offense in 2013-2014 was a change of pace/receiving-type back, and he was fairly undersized for a receiver. He just did not get enough touches overall in the season to be super effective. The best WR to play for the Sun Devils that year was UCLA transfer Devin Lucien.

I already highlighted the Texas A&M game in 2015; let me also highlight a few more significant contests. Miscues cost ASU big against USC in Tempe; I remember a dropped deep, wide-open TD by Kody Kohl and a 14 point swing right before halftime as a near-ASU score was fumbled and taken the other way for six. Somehow the following week, ASU went to UCLA, then ranked #7 (the Bruins finished the season unranked), and won, highlighted by the Kalen Ballage famous “scrum run.” That game was the last time the Sun Devils have defeated a ranked opponent (0-3 since). Later in the year, with the season already well out of hand, the Oregon Ducks came to town. It took a miraculous 4th down touchdown pass for Oregon to force OT, and the Ducks ended up winning in 3 OT. But here’s how that happened: after a controversial touchdown for the Ducks who got the ball first in the third OT (2 point conversion failed), ASU had 1st and goal from the 2 yard line. Already rushing for over 6 YPC that game, Graham proceeded to call two slant routes in a row, the first of which was broken up, and the second of which was intercepted to end the game. Play calling and inability to finish plays cost the Devils that game. Another thing to note, ASU allowed touchdowns of 64, 39, 100, 62, 8, 25, 1, and 20 yards that game (yeah it was quite the shootout). The alarming aspect is the number of 20+ and 40+ yard plays that were allowed (and those were just the TD lengths). That theme began in 2015 and still continues today.

In 2015, for the first time in the Graham era, ASU allowed over 30 points per game on defense, and the point differential per game was almost negligible. Graham’s previously acclaimed defense showed massive holes and vulnerabilities, but no subsequent adjustments were seemingly made.

The next year (2016) saw ASU let up nearly 40 points per game (scoring only 33 on offense) and 7.1 yards per play. That’s an astonishing figure especially when considering ASU started 4-0 that season with notable wins over Texas Tech and Cal. Can you think of a way to win a football game when your defense allows that many yards on average? I dove into the stats a bit more for the 2016 season and picked out the number of 20+ and 40+ yard plays allowed by the ASU defense/special teams (recall that 40+ yard plays are included within 20+ yard plays too):

Opponent/Result 20+ Yard Plays 40+ Yard Plays Northern Arizona (W 44-13) 6 1 Texas Tech (W 68-55) 6 3 @ UTSA (W 32-28) 5 1 Cal (W 51-41) 9 2 @ USC (L 20-41) 7 3 UCLA (W 23-20) 6 4 @ Colorado (L 16-40) 4 2 Washington State (L 32-37) 4 2 @ Oregon (L 35-54) 10 4 Utah (L 26-49) 7 3 @ Washington (L 18-44) 5 4 @ Arizona (L 35-56) 8 6 Total 77 35

ASU did not go a single game in 2016 without allowing at least 4 plays of 20+ yards and 1 play of 40+ yards. Of the amount of 20+ yard plays allowed, almost half of them spanned at least 40 yards. This is corresponding to a defense that misses assignments, blows coverages, and (most importantly) cannot tackle. I can’t even begin to explain how many of these plays were due to poor tackling (I specifically recall a JuJu Smith-Schuster screen pass that went 40+ for that reason). Many of these long plays allowed were from passes that weren’t necessary long throws.

The misleading 57th ranked rush defense of 2016 surely is a result of more teams successfully passing the ball. ASU would have had an even better ranked rush defense had they not allowed 511 rushing yards in their final game at Arizona (a game in which I’m still utterly shocked Graham wasn’t fired after). That just goes to show that the teams that committed to their game plan against Graham’s defense scored dozens of points and gained hundreds of yards at ease.

Injuries also plagued ASU at QB in 2016. Manny Wilkins, another dual threat best known for his hurdles over defenders, was hurt pretty early in the season, and ASU failed to produce a competent backup. Overall, 2016 was a dismal season in Tempe. Kalen Ballage was without doubt their best player, and N’Keal Harry was a rising star. But after posting the outright worst passing defense in the country and the near-worst total defense, you would think Todd Graham would make some extremely necessary adjustments for 2017. His system showed promise in his early seasons but had since been more than compromised.

So far in 2017, ASU is 1-2 with an opening win against NM State and losses to San Diego State (currently ranked) and at Texas Tech. Wilkins is putting up effective QB numbers, but the rest of his team is not helping out. ASU is averaging under 100 rushing yards per game while allowing over 500 yards of total offense per game. I understand these numbers are inflated due to the lack of games, but this is by no means an improvement against the weaker part of the schedule (PAC 12 play begins this weekend). Consider this – 124th to 118th in points allowed, 127th to 122nd in total yards allowed, last to 125th in passing yards allowed, and 57th to 91st in rushing yards allowed – are not truly improvements. Furthermore, in these 3 games, ASU has allowed 6, 5, and 8 20+ yard plays to go with 1, 2, and 1 40+ yard plays. You’d have to go back to at latest the 2015 season to find a game where ASU hadn’t allowed a 40+ yard play! This just confirms the continued regression of this defensive scheme run by Coach Graham. I mean, come on, 8 yards allowed per play so far this season? He has had several seasons to fix the problem; now he’s staring down the barrel of a third consecutive losing season in Tempe. That will not be tolerated by Ray Anderson, by the players, and by the fans.

As I mentioned in the intro, I have nothing but respect for Coach Graham. I have him to partially thank for some amazing football games I’ve attended. But I’m simply saying that his time in Tempe has come to a grinding halt. While the offense has put up points fairly consistently over his tenure (always 33+ per game), the defense has had its peak in his early years when offenses didn’t know what was coming. The blitz-heavy Graham scheme has worked against some opponents on some plays (produced over a dozen pick-sixes in his tenure), but this has not been the case over the last 3 seasons. Coach Graham has refused/failed to change his ways and adapt to his new players, the ones that he himself recruited, by the way. I can’t remember the last time Sun Devil Stadium was completely full, even after reducing the grandstands by thousands of seats. It’s time for a change in Tempe, but who can fulfill the next role as head coach of the Arizona State Sun Devils? ASU deserves a household name. Interestingly, in 2011, before they hired Graham, ASU offered the job to one Kevin Sumlin…

Stats and information provided by ESPN, PAC 12, and sports-reference.