We at MoverDB, decided to find out what the total removals costs would be of relocating all EU citizens living in the UK and all UK citizens living in the EU back to their respective “home” countries after Brexit.

After doing some number crunching, we’ve found that the absolute minimum removals costs for relocating all people would be:

£1.1 billion total

total £304 million to move all UK citizens back to the UK.

to move all UK citizens back to the UK. £787 million to move all EU citizens back to their respective countries.

And, just to be clear, this is just the cost of moving people’s stuff to and from the UK. It does not include transportation costs for people flying/driving home.

If all 4.3 million people affected managed to find cheap flights, for an average price of £49 (one-way), it would add an additional £211 million to the costs above.

We’ll go through in detail how we arrived at these numbers below, but several caveats should be addressed first.

First, no one knows what will happen in the event of a vote in favour of Brexit. However, the scenario outlined below is extremely unlikely to happen. Some EU citizens living in the UK may be forced to return to their home country and some UK citizens may be forced to return to the UK.

Nevertheless, it will be nowhere near a complete population swap. It’s a hypothetical what-if scenario, rather than any attempt at a prediction.

That said, the costs outlined below are also extremely conservative. They reflect our own international shipping cost data, along with data from World Freight Rates (WFR).

We took the lowest estimate given by WFR for a full 40ft truckload of household goods with residential pickup & delivery and multiplied that by the estimated number of moves between countries to arrive at the numbers above.

However, if everyone had to relocate at once or within a relatively shot period of time (say within on year) costs would skyrocket. The simple reason is that there wouldn’t be enough movers and removals companies, available to handle the sudden increase in demand.

Looking at 2015, net migration to the UK was 333,000. In total, 630,000 people moved to the UK and 297,000 left for all other countries around the world.

If all the moving companies that performed these moves only focused on relocations related to Brexit, there would still be a massive gap between supply and demand.

In total, there are around 1.26 million UK citizens living in the EU, about 2X total annual immigration numbers to the UK .

UK citizens living in the EU, about . However, there are around 3 million EU citizens living in the UK, 10X the number people who emigrate from the UK each year.

EU citizens living in the UK, With hypothetical demand back to the UK more than double than normal (keep in mind that more immigration comes from outside the EU than from the EU itself) and demand leaving the UK more than 10X higher than normal (keep in mind the number above was for global emigration to all countries, not just the EU) prices would have to skyrocket. Think Uber Surge pricing on steroids.

It should also be noted, that the costs presented above do not take into account the wage and labour impact the removals industry would face after losing a large section of its workforce. With fewer people available to actually do the moves, costs would increase even further.

Finally, if you’re thinking this would not affect you. Just keep this stat in your head. Each year 7 million UK residents move home, many of them requiring a removal company.

With prices going through the roof, on expensive international moves, and fewer movers available to do them, let alone cheaper domestic moves, your cheap man & van is going to suddenly look a bit dearer.

Below we go into more detail about how we arrived at the two numbers above that make up our £1.1 billion total.

Cost of Moving All UK Citizens Back From The EU

As mentioned above there are roughly 1.26 million UK citizens currently living in the EU according to the UN.

Now obviously, many if not most people move as a family, rather than individuals. So to estimate the number of moves from each country, we simply divided the resident population by 2.3 people, which is the current average household size in the UK.

This gives us the total number of moves from which we can start figuring out costs.

The costs as mentioned above are based on a 40ft full truckload move with both residential pick-up and drop-off. To keep things simple we simply selected the rate from the capital city of each country to London. Obviously moves between more remote destinations would cost more.

Moreover, it does not include other common moving costs such as insurance, packing, taxes, etc. These costs would further add significantly to the overall price paid per move. Therefore, the numbers given below are the absolute lowest that could be paid, not a realtisic estimate of what prices would actually be like post-Brexit.

Number of moves by country:

Country UK Population Estimated Number Of Moves Spain

308,821

134,270

Ireland

254,761

110,766

France

185,344

80,584

Germany

103,352

44,936

Cyprus

84,815

36,876

Italy

64,986

28,255

Netherlands

49,549

21,543

Poland 34,545

15,020

Belgium

27,335

11,885

Sweden

24,950

10,848

Denmark

18,556

8,068

Portugal

17,798

7,738

Greece

17,679

7,687

Malta

12,046

5,237

Austria

11,013

4,788

Hungary

6,980

3,035

Finland

6,898

2,999

Luxembourg

6,559

2,852

Bulgaria

5,329

2,317

Slovakia

4,890

2,126

Czech Republic

4,795

2,085

Lithuania

3,301

1,435

Romania

3,124

1,358

Latvia

1,148

499

Croatia

670

291

Slovenia

578

251

Estonia

487

212

Total 1,260,309

547,960



Cost of moves by country:

Country Cost per move

Total Cost

Spain

£664.23



£89,186,162.10



Ireland

£279.54



£30,963,430.41



France

£258.03



£20,793,179.27



Germany

£433.98



£19,501,174.33



Cyprus

£1,539.39



£56,766,679.50



Italy

£716.47



£20,243,704.10



Netherlands

£256.73



£5,530,745.55



Poland £613.76



£9,218,408.35



Belgium

£215.18



£2,557,367.52

Sweden

£716.25



£7,769,755.43



Denmark

£492.85



£3,976,228.09



Portugal

£815.82



£6,313,027.98



Greece

£1,201.29



£9,233,741.70



Malta

£1,107.01



£5,797,844.55



Austria

£573.34



£2,745,301.49



Hungary

£644.78



£1,956,767.13

Finland

£999.78



£2,998,470.63





Luxembourg

£283.65



£808,895.80



Bulgaria

£919.67



£2,130,835.40



Slovakia

£619.49



£1,317,089.61



Czech Republic

£505.98



£1,054,858.30



Lithuania

£825.05



£1,184,126.11



Romania

£943.08



£1,280,948.66



Latvia

£852.07



£425,294.07



Croatia

£646.53



£188,337.00



Slovenia

£600.35



£150,870.57



Estonia

£995.33



£210,750.31



Total

£304,303,993.96





Cost of Moving All EU Citizens Back To Their Home Countries

The same basic assumptions have been used in the following calculations as those above. The only thing to note is that price estimates were from London to each country’s capital city.

Number of moves by country:

Country Population in UK Estimated Number of Moves Poland

853,000

370,870

Ireland

330,000

143,478

Romania

175,000

76,087

Portugal

175,000

76,087

Italy

170,000

73,913

France

170,000

73,913

Lithuania

156,000

67,826

Spain

131,000

56,957

Germany

131,000

56,957

Latvia

107,000

46,522

Hungary

84,000

36,522

Netherlands

82,000

35,652

Slovakia

80,000

34,783

Bulgaria

59,000

25,652

Greece

54,000

23,478

Czech Republic

37,000

16,087

Sweden

33,000

14,348

Denmark

27,000

11,739

Austria

18,000

7,826

Belgium

17,000

7,391

Cyprus



17,000

7,391

Estonia

13,000

5,652

Finland

14,000

6,087

Total 2,933,000

1,275,217



Cost of moves by country:

Country Cost Per Move Total Cost Poland

£611.21



£226,679,186.96



Ireland

£279.54



£40,107,913.04



Romania

£941.04



£71,600,869.57



Portugal

£812.71



£61,836,630.43



Italy

£713.38



£52,728,086.96



France

£253.40



£18,729,565.22



Lithuania

£820.04



£55,620,104.35



Spain

£660.38



£37,612,947.83



Germany

£430.27



£24,506,682.61



Latvia

£848.16



£39,457,878.26



Hungary

£640.62



£23,396,556.52



Netherlands

£253.08



£9,022,852.17



Slovakia

£616.20



£21,433,043.48



Bulgaria

£915.40



£23,482,000.00



Greece

£1,196.66



£28,095,495.65



Czech Republic

£504.19



£8,110,882.61



Sweden

£712.45



£10,222,108.70



Denmark

£488.96



£5,739,965.22



Austria

£569.99



£4,460,791.30



Belgium

£210.65



£1,556,978.26



Cyprus



£1,536.38



£11,355,852.17



Estonia

£993.08



£5,613,060.87



Finland

£997.33





£6,070,704.35



Total

£787,440,156.52



What to do if you’re worried about having to move after Brexit

First, don’t panic! Even if the UK does vote for Brexit, it won’t suddenly leave the EU. There will be a long negotiation process that would take up to 2 years. And even then, the free movement of people may remain as a condition of the UK maintaining access to the common market.

Second, if you’re eligible to vote, make sure you do so on June 23rd, 2016. And remember if voting by post, your ballot is due by 10pm on election day.

Finally, if you really want to be prepared, you can start researching international removals, moving, and shipping companies. Moreover, you may also want read more about international shipping costs and questions to ask your mover when getting moving quotes.

Please leave your thought about this research below. And if you found it interesting please share it with a friend.

Using this research: Any media outlet / website is free to republish our main findings, so long as they give linked attribution back to this page and/or MoverDB.com.