Less than two months before the election, however, Republican pickup opportunities have withered, and Democrats have a path to increase their number of seats. If everything goes just right (including widespread Republican depression over the mess they’ve created), there is a small chance they might even sneak through to a 51-49 majority.

Cook Political Report currently identifies only five Democratic seats that are toss-ups. That means Democratic Senators like Robert P. Casey Jr. (Pa.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), Jon Tester (Mont.) and Tammy Baldwin (Wis.) have moved to safe ground. But even among those five toss-up Democrats, Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia do not look all that vulnerable. Donnelly has a 5.7 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics averages, while Manchin’s average lead is up to 8.4 percentage points. That leaves the other three Democrats — Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Bill Nelson (Fla.) and Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) — as the most vulnerable. Each of their races is a statistical tie.

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In short, Republican lack a single assured or even likely pickup.

Meanwhile, Republican problem seats are increasing. Nevada and Arizona remain problematic for the GOP. In fact, we’ve yet to see a poll where Republican Martha McSally is in the lead in Arizona. (Her embrace of Trump late in her primary may come back to haunt her.) In Nevada it’s a statistical tie between Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) and Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen.

Tennessee has become a legitimate worry for the GOP. In the most recent poll, former governor Phil Bredesen has a slight lead over Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), but the race is within the margin of error. Noteworthy, however, is Blackburn’s low appeal outside the GOP. Bredesen has 97 percent among Democrats and a 49-to-45-percent lead with independents; Blackburn has a lower level of support within her own party than Bredesen does with his (86 percent). Blackburn’s unfavorable rating (36 percent) is higher than the former governor’s (22 percent), while Bredesen’s favorable rating (61 percent) is far above hers (46 percent). She has hugged Trump too tightly, which may explain why Bredesen is doing so well among college-educated voters (54 percent to 41 percent), who are, in most every poll, very unfavorably disposed to Trump.

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If we stopped right there, the range of outcomes would run from Republicans gaining three seats (getting to 54) to Democrats gaining three (getting to 52). But Democrats have a couple long-shots — Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Tex.) is running close to Sen. Ted Cruz, and certainly has gotten a big dose of positive, earned media coverage, as well as Mike Espy in Mississippi (whom, my colleague George F. Will points out, benefits from a three-person race).

As mentioned earlier, geography works in Republicans’ favor this year. Of the six states with super-close races, Trump won in all but one (Nevada), and the two Democratic long-shots are in solidly red states. Republicans can try bragging about the economy, but until wages rise noticeably, that isn’t likely to get much traction. Democrats, in addition to anti-Trump sentiment, got lucky in two respects. With African American gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum at the top of the ticket in Florida, Nelson stands to benefit from high African American turnout. In addition, both Bredesen and O’Rourke have run excellent campaigns.

In sum, odds still favor Republicans to hold their majority, but it’s by no means a slam dunk. If they keep frittering away money and effort on doomed House seats, they may find their nightmare — losing both majorities — becomes reality in November.