While the incumbent made security the centerpiece of his reelection bid, Mr Duda, 20 years his junior, countered by putting the spotlight on economic issues.

Even as the European Union's largest eastern economy is set to grow more than 3 per cent for a second year, unemployment remaining above 11 per cent fuels sentiment that the poorer and less educated are missing out on the benefits. Between one and two million mostly younger Poles have left the country in recent years for better-paying jobs in Ireland and the U.K.

"It's a gigantic red card for Komorowski and the ruling party," Bartlomiej Biskup, a political scientist at the Warsaw University, said by phone on Sunday. "This slump in support reflects the electorate's sentiment that the ruling party doesn't listen to their needs."

Mr Duda railed against the government's decision to raise the retirement age to 67, and pledged to offset higher spending with with more revenue from large companies such as banks and foreign supermarket chains.

Voters also flocked to Pawel Kukiz, a former punk rocker running as an independent, who's relied on voluntary donations to fund his campaign. He has appealed to Poles' sense of national pride, calling emigration "an extermination spread over time."

Mr Kukiz was third with 20.5 per cent, according to the exit poll conducted by the Warsaw-based polling company Ipsos for Polish television stations.

Mr Duda immediately started courting Mr Kukiz's voters, in his post-election speech pledging to consider making some of his rival's proposals part of his policy agenda.

Mr Komorowski, by contrast, struggled to match his rival's energy on issues ranging from euro adoption to relations with Russia against the backdrop of the conflict in neighbouring Ukraine. With polls showing him as the most trusted politician in the nation of 38 million, Mr Komorowski was projected to end up with no more than 40 per cent. Mr Duda was supported by about 30 per cent of voters, according to six polls published before a blackout began Friday.


Official results will probably be announced Monday evening, Election Commission deputy chief Sylwester Marciniak told the PAP news service on Sunday. After the exit polls were released, Mr Komorowski said the results were a "serious warning" that those in power need to listen to voters more.

Mr Komorowski's slide has left financial markets relatively stable going into the vote. Zloty bonds have become more stable than Treasuries, German bunds or Czech notes, with 15-day volatility slumping to a 10-month low.

This may now reverse as the changes on the political scene are becoming increasingly realistic, according to Piotr Bujak, an economist at PKO Bank Polski SA in Warsaw.

"Poland is losing its image of oasis," he said by phone. "We'll face intensifying uncertainty about the future changes; that uncertainty will clearly impact the financial market's reaction to Poland, we will observe growing volatility."

Poland's president can veto legislation, acts as commander- in-chief of the armed forces and has say in foreign policy, while the separately elected parliament passes laws and elects a government. Whoever wins will also get to appoint two members of the central bank's rate-setting panel in the first quarter and its governor, whose candidacy needs to gain parliamentary approval, in June 2016.

The vote will set the stage for general election in October or November as Law and Justice will seek to end Civic Platform's rule, the longest for any single party since the fall of communism in 1989.

That sets up an intense campaign, according to Mr Biskup.

"The result of the second round is still an open question," he said by phone on Sunday. "We're definitely facing two weeks of a heated battle, which to be fair is still going to stretch out till the fall."

Bloomberg