I still remember the excitement and optimism that I felt at the beginning of the 2019 season. I couldn't stop thinking about how Harvey and Cahill would help round off our rotation considering both had performed well in 2018, Lucroy was poised to have a bounce back season, Allen would find his form and help shut down the ninth, all of the Simmons/Fletcher double plays, and another season to witness Mike Trout in all his glory. I left Spring Training feeling even more hopeful as I had a chance to catch a few of our prospects play as well. For the better part of a decade the Angels were a bit hopeless in that we had, and what felt like, one too many albatross contracts in Hamilton, Wells, and Pujols, and a farm system that would go down in history as one of the worst farm systems, ever. Keith Law would go on to summarize our farm system as the worst he's ever seen in his eight years of work. It felt as if we were the punchline to the entire MLB, and it felt even worse because we had arguably the greatest player to play the game in Trout.

I began to feel that we were finally turning the page into a new era of Angels baseball. The MLB roster was beginning to show signs of life, and Adell headlined a promising farm system that would help supplement positional and pitching needs. My Angels fandom peak around March and April, and I started to believe that this may be the year that we can get Trout & Co back into the playoffs. Again, I felt immensely hopeful going into the season with all the new additions to the team, but as most Angels faithful know, hope would slowly turn to despair.

Harvey, Cahill, Allen, and Lucroy would go to sign for a combined 31.85 million, but only to muster a collective -1.5 fWAR. Although it may not seem bad in those terms, but their collective WAR doesn't even scrap the surface of how terrible their performances were. Cahill was signed because of his ability to keep the baseball in the yard, Harvey showed promise while with Cincy, a hitter's ballpark, Allen stated he was able to recognize issues with his mechanics and could get back to form, and Lucroy had the peripherals that suggested he could bounce back. Not a single one of those things happened while with the Angels... All but Cahill would go on to be designated for assignment, and then the organization would lose a great player and person in Tyler Skaggs. Everything together would ultimately lead to the Angels rushing a few of their pitching prospects to fill holes in the rotation. Although rushed, Canning showed some promise, but we still didn't have a rotation with a clear 1 or 2 or even a 3.

Just prior to the trade deadline, the Angels went to sweep the Dodgers in a two game series that saw them go five games over .500, which the next two series being against the Orioles and Tigers, respectively, and we looked poised for a wildcard spot. Angels would go on to lose five of those next seven games. Ausmus deemed the team to have enough "ammo" to still make a wild card push, while Eppler did not make any major trades to address one of the league's worst rotations. We knew where this would go:

*Cue Build Me up Buttercup*.

After all the things our fan base has endured during the past decade, one could argue that this would be one of the worst seasons in franchise history. The question now becomes whether the Angels are even able to compete next season? Do we have the enough talent to make the playoffs? Will Arte and Eppler waste another year of Trout in 2020 or do they crack open the check book? Will our new manager make that much of a difference? We have so many questions, and hardly any answers. We are left to read the tea leaves into what Arte and Eppler may have planned for 2020.

First, let us look at what the team will look like going into the off season, and where each of those areas rank in comparison to the rest of the league in terms of fWAR. All stats are pulled from FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Positional Needs (rank)

Catcher (27)

Garneau 0.4

Smith -0.2

Lucroy -0.3

Stassi -0.2

Bemboom -0.3

Towards the end of the season Garneau and Lucroy were DFA'd, and Eppler made a trade with Houston for Max Stassi to round out the catching. Although Stassi is not a force with a bat, he came in carrying high praise for his defensive abilities, yet we did not see much of anything during his first stint with the Angels.

By the looks of it, Catcher will not be addressed during the off-season, which is a shame considering none of them were able to provide any positive value outside of Garneau. Our new manager will have platoon of Smith and Stassi, and with both combined will only earn a little over 2 million through arbitration. Between Smith, Stassi, and Bemboom the Angels seem "set" at Catcher.

First Base (27)

- Walsh -0.2

- Pujols -0.4

- Bour -0.4

First base will continue to trot out Pujols every other day, so this leads to Thaiss/Walsh and Pujols in handling first base duties. Pujols performed better towards the end of the season, which was convenient because we no longer were in the playoff hunt, Thaiss didn't really do much with his time in the majors last season, and I had hoped the Angels would bring up Rojas in September. The issue with Rojas is that he wasn't already on the 40-man, and by placing him on the 40-man in September may mean that he would be taken off and eligible for the Rule 5 draft. In order to keep him in the system, the organization decided to not promote him. Like Thaiss, Walsh didn't seem to make much of his debut either.

I don't expect the Angels to make any changes to the current setup for first base. Again, Pujols will man first whenever he isn't the DH, and when he is, Walsh/Thaiss will take over at first.

Second Base (12)

- La Stella 2.0

- Rengifo 1.2

- Wong -0.1

- Cowart -0.1

La Stella will most likely be our starting second basemen while Rengifo is our utility back up. I don't expect any additions to be made at second unless we swing for the fences and sign Rendon, and begin shifting players around to accommodate him.

Shortstop (26)

- Simmons 1.6

- Tovar 0.0

Unless traded, Simmons will continue to hold down SS. I expect him to have a very nice bounce back season.

Third Base (13)

- Fletcher 3.4

- Thaiss 0.1

- Ward -0.3

- Cozart -0.9

Fletcher. Done. Set.

Right Field (17)

- Calhoun 2.5

Calhoun has done a fine job this season, but given that he has a 14MM option for next season I can see the Angels declining it given our other internal options in Goodwin and Adell.

Center Field (1)

- Trout 8.6

GREATEST OF ALL TIME!

Left Field (19)

- Goodwin 1.9

- Upton -0.2

- Parker -0.2

Left Field is another glaring hole, but given that Upton had missed extended time due to turf toe, I can see this area improving in 2020.

Designated Hitter (7)

- Ohtani 1.5

Set.

Outside of First Base and Catcher, I feel the Angels are absolutely set on positional players, which leads me to the next area and where I believe Eppler will be spending more on: Pitching.

There is a slight difficulty in interpreting the pitching staff's stats since we deployed an opener, which skews the numbers a bit. Angels have fared better with the bullpen then they have with their starting rotation, so I'll dive into the good before the bad. Also, I will only be including players that will may be on the roster for next season barring any trades or players that had a huge negative impact on the team.

Bullpen (16)

- Buttrey 1.4

- Robles 1.8

- Bedrosian 0.7

- Anderson 0.3

- Cole 0.6

- N.Ramirez 0.7

- J.Ramirez -0.1

- Bard 0.0

- Garcia -0.6

The bullpen fared immensely well throughout the season even though they were responsible for pitching half games. Our starters failed to go more than four innings more often than they did, which resulted in taxing the bullpen. Below I've listed how many innings the bullpen had pitched each month versus the starters, and where the innings pitched for each the bullpen and rotation rank again the rest of the league:

March/April Bullpen Starters IP 130.1 134.2 ERA 3.97 5.55 Rank 5 28

May Bullpen Starters IP 126.2 112.1 ERA 4.83 5.61 Rank 18 27

June Bullpen Starters IP 126.0 121.0 ERA 4.79 4.69 Rank 18 19

July Bullpen Starters IP 127.0 101.2 ERA 4.65 5.13 Rank 7 22

August Bullpen Starters IP 121.1 121.0 ERA 5.56 5.50 Rank 6 27

September Bullpen Starters IP 129.2 90.1 ERA 4.16 7.87 Rank 3 29

Total Bullpen Starters IP 761.2 681.0 ERA 4.64 5.64 Rank 2 30

The Angels bullpen ranked second in innings pitched with 761.2 innings, and the rotation placed in dead last with 681.0 innings pitched. Again, the numbers may be skewed because we used an opener throughout the season, but after watching most of the season I wouldn't think these numbers aren't far off. The bullpen still ranked somewhat in the middle of the pack in ERA, FIP, fWAR, etc, so it's plausible to think that the bullpen would be much more effective if the rotation were to be average at minimum. Below I've compiled where the bullpen ranked in specific areas.

Stat Value Rank ERA 4.64 20 IP 761.2 2 BB/9 3.77 13 K/9 9.03 19 WHIP 1.37 17 BABIP .292 13 fWAR 2.5 16

It's also possible for Eppler to upgrade it. The bullpen would benefit from having another capable arm to take pressure off of Buttrey, but the market isn't filled with too many shut down and proven arms. Will Smith, Tony Cingrani, and Dellin Betances could be brought on to take the bullpen to the next level, but considering how bad Allen performed last season, I wouldn't doubt if Eppler refrains from allocating money into an FA reliever. Instead I expect Eppler to make some trade or make more waiver claims, which he seems to have a knack for. Middleton will also help fortify the bullpen in 2020, so Middleton-Buttrey-Robles as our three headed beast may just be what the bullpen needs. Bullpen set.

Rotation

The bullpen has performed beyond their expectations, but the rotation was an absolute dumpster fire and that's putting it kindly. Eppler signed Cahill to 9M and Harvey to 11M, and there was some hope when the signings happened. Cahill had pitched excellent while in Oakland to the tune of a 3.76 ERA along with only serving up 8 homeruns while pitching 110.0 innings. All his peripheral stats supported his ERA, so as long as he stayed healthy he looked poised to help our team contend. Harvey had pitched well during his half season stint in Cincy. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA and again his peripherals looking solid as well. Each of these two would go on to be led a rotation that would rank in the bottom 5 in most statistical categories. Let's take a look:

Stat Value Rank ERA 5.64 29 IP 681.0 30 BB/9 3.40 26 K/9 8.46 15 WHIP 1.37 19 BABIP .289 10 fWAR 3.3 30

Further explanation isn't needed. The rotation flat out sucked.

If we have any hope at contending next year the rotation is an absolute area of need/prayer. The tragic passing of Skaggs have only made matters worse while we dealt with Cahill and Harvey completely blowing games. This meant at the time of Skaggs' passing, we had lost three spots in the rotation, which led to the early promotions of Canning, Sandoval, and Suarez. While Canning had performed well, Suarez is one that didn't find much success early on in the Majors, but did hit his stride as the end of the season progressed. Suarez attributed his struggles to Doug White, and how White would keep changing his mechanics. This ultimately led to Suarez severely under-performing last season. Barria was unable to replicate his rookie season magic, and Sandoval didn't fare very well either. Most of the young pitchers could benefit from more seasoning in the minors and used as depth.

We will get Ohtani back into the rotation in 2020, which is going to be a huge boost. Although a huge boost, Eppler is still tasked with filling out the rest of the rotation where only Canning and Heaney will be ready. Even if the Angels were to sign Gerrit Cole, I have a hard time picturing the Angels making a deep playoff with him alone.

Eppler would, at minimum, need to fill two spots in the rotation either through free agency or the trade market, and those two spots would need to be high tier starters. Something that would require a hefty contract or trade package.

Payroll

It's very apparent that the rotation should be where our "disposable" payroll goes towards, so let's look where our payroll may land in 2020 when compared to historical data per BaseballProspectus.com

Year 25-Man Opening Day 40-Man Year End Percentage of Luxury Tax Threshold 2019 $158,878,583 77.1% 2018 $166,649,999 $176,748,648 85.4% 2017 $166,375,833 $188,553,926 85.3% 2016 $164,673,333 $185,760,439 87.1% 2015 $146,341,583 $149,686,871 77.4% 2014 $154,546,500 $164,059,717 81.8% 2013 $137,271,250 $143,670,107 77.1% 2012 $151,381,000 $160,146,581 85.0% 2011 $141,755,666 $143,099,729 79.6% 2010 $121,113,867 $123,478,263 71.2% AVG $150,898,761 81.1%

I based the percentage off of the 25-Man Opening Day payroll since I am analyzing what Eppler could potentially have to work with moving into the off-season. This year the Luxury Tax Threshold sits at 208 million, which would put us around 168.7 million to start the season if we use the average percentage from this decade.

The 2019 season payroll ended at 159.7 million, and with the subtraction of Calhoun (10.5MM), Harvey (11MM), Cahill (9MM), Allen (8.5MM), Skaggs (3.7MM - I know, I'm sad to include him on here), and Lucroy (3.35MM), that would be a total of 46.05 million coming off the books. Sounds like a good amount to spend in Free Agency, right? According to Baseball-Reference, we will sit at about 115.5 million going into the off-season with only guaranteed contracts, but I've calculated a little bit more using AAV.

Mike Trout - $35.542MM

Albert Pujols - $24MM

Justin Upton - $21.2MM

Andrelton Simmons - 8.29MM

Zack Cozart - $12.67MM

Kole Calhoun (Team Option) - $14MM

Total (W/O Options) $102.16MM

Total (W/ Options) $116.16MM

Calhoun finished the season with a career high in homeruns, and worked to a 2.5 fWAR. His performance surely warrants consideration from the Front Office in picking up his option, but again given how horrible our pitching was, it is difficult to imagine Calhoun having his option picked up. Angels could opt to decline it and bring him back on a lower salary, which would give Adell more time to get some seasoning in AAA. Another option would be to decline Calhoun and have Goodwin patrol RF until Adell is ready, which I have a feeling is Eppler's plan, and Eppler can allocate that 14MM towards pitching. With these things in mind, I've assumed that Calhoun will not have his option picked up for 2020, and with the addition of 40-Man minor league players' salaries (2.25MM) and player benefits (15MM), this would put us at 119.41MM in payroll to begin the offseason.

Last year the Angels paid 13.5M in arbitration cases, so let's take a look at MLBTradeRumors arbitration projections for this off-season.

Tommy La Stella - $2.9MM

Luis Garcia - $2.3MM

Justin Bour - $2.9MM

Cam Bedrosian - $2.8MM

Andrew Heaney - $5.0MM

Hansel Robles - $4.0MM

Nick Tropeano - $1.1MM

Max Stassi - $800K

Kevan Smith - $1.3MM

Brian Goodwin - $2.1MM

Keynan Middleton - $800K

Noe Ramirez - $1.0MM

Total $27,000,000

This would put our payroll at 146.41million if all the players are tendered, and would put us under 22.29 million from our estimated opening day payroll. Technically we'd still be 61.59 million under the threshold, but considering Arte has never taken the payroll over 87%, it's doubtful he deviates from his usual spending. Although doubtful, it's obvious that Arte is not happy with how his organization has performed these past few seasons. This is evident with the team letting Ausmus, White, and Paul know that they are not going to be brought back in 2020, and this could be Arte signaling even more of an overhaul once the off-season begins.

It's also possible that not all of the arbitration eligible players will be tendered a new contract. By non-tendering under-performing players such as Garcia, Bour, and Tropeano, Arte could save additional 6.3 million.

Ohtani, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval, and Heaney would all be in competition for one of the six rotation spots heading into 2020, so Eppler would need to find a way to sign two starters with 22.29M. After looking at the numbers and the realization, Gerrit Cole most likely would be our only signing or Eppler will continue to try and cheat the system by finding low-cost high-reward type pitchers. The Angels have never signed a single pitcher to a six figure contract, but considering how badly 2019 went, this may be the year we see a contract be offered that would go well into six figures.

Gerrit Cole continues to be the most sought after pitcher along with quality arms such as Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Tanner Roark, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Alex Wood so if we're looking to make a splash then Arte going to need to open the check book.

The trade market could also be a way of filling one of the starter spots, but we've already seen how keen Eppler is in keeping the farm intact.

Trade Assets

The farm was top heavy going into the season, and 2019 saw the majority of those players graduate to the Major League roster. Players such as Canning, Suarez, Thaiss, and Sandoval will likely all have a spot on the roster next season. With those players no longer considered as prospects, let's look and see how the farm currently stands:

Rank Name (ETA) Level 1 Jo Adell (2020) AA/AAA 2 Brandon Marsh (2020) AA 3 Jordyn Adams (2022) A 4 Will Wilson (2022) RK 5 Jeremiah Jackson (2022) RK 6 Jahmai Jones (2020) AA 7 Kyren Paris (2023) RK 8 D'Shawn Knowles (2022) RK 9 Jose Soriano (2021 ) A 10 Trent Deveaux (2022) RK 11 Luis Madero (2021) AA 12 Jack Kochanowicz (2023) - 13 Aaron Hernandez (2022) A+ 14 Chris Rodriguez (2022) A+ 15 Livan Soto (2022) A 16 Hector Yan (2022) A 17 Oliver Ortega (2021) AA 18 Jeremy Beasley (2020) AA 19 Stiward Quino (2022) RK 20 Kyle Bradish (2022) A+

It's been five years since Mike Trout played in October, and our fan base grows more impatient by the day. Maybe Arte does choose to set a new records in Angels payroll, and Eppler trades the farm for MLB ready talent. Maybe Arte continues to spend as he normally does. We have so many questions, but we'll have to wait until after the World Series to get any answers.

In the meantime what are you doing with 22.29 million to help this team contend in 2020? Who would you sign using 61.59 million? Who would you tender? Who are you trading for?

You're Eppler, and I'd like to know what you'd do this offseason!



