Even with its ability to export, the U.S. refining industry is not operating at peak capacity. It is currently running at a rate of 84.7 percent, but the picture for the industry could also change in coming months as the east coast continues to see refineries shut down. Two big closures are pending in the Mid-Atlantic for 2012.

“One reason the U.S. is exporting more gasoline is that ethanol has contributed more fuel supply so refineries have a surplus of gasoline made strictly from crude oil,” Lipow said.

Some of the reduction in gasoline demand could be coming from conservation and more efficient engines.

Interestingly, the U.S. in October exported nearly 10 percent, or 93,000 barrels a day of its ethanol, which was being produced at a near-record level of 906,000 barrels a day. One country receiving some of those imports was Brazil, a leading producer and consumer of ethanol.

Kilduff said the drop in consumer gasoline consumption is a longer term trend but the continued decline is worrisome and reflects a weak economy. “Even (the weekly report) which should have captured the holiday driving season was showing 8.6 million barrels (gasoline consumed), which is low for this time of year,” he said.

Lipow said he does not anticipate gasoline prices will keep dropping, but he said the price at the pump may be more directly influenced by the price of crude oil in the coming year.

“They’ve (refiners) satisfied demand and exported the balance. It’s all going to depend on the crude price because in 2012, you have declining demand and adequate refined supply,” he said.

“Especially in 2012 to watch, you can imagine that the exports of distillates is going to be a political issue. We’re even exporting ethanol fuels,” he said.

Gasoline prices currently average $3.26 a gallon nationally, according to AAA. In July, regular unleaded gasoline hit an average high of $4.114 and was at $3.071 at this time last year.

Diesel fuel hit a high of $4.845 this summer and is now averaging $3.824 — well above the price at this time last year of $3.315 per gallon.

Follow Patti Domm on Twitter: @pattidomm

Disclaimer