But will the 2017 Legislature listen?

A major and necessary focus of the Oregon Legislature during the 2017 session must be balancing the state budget. Part of that, the Oregonian recently reported, is a $5 billion transportation wish list from Oregon’s Department of Transportation (ODOT).

On the same day, the paper also contained this unfortunate headline: “Report: Oregon far short of 2020 emissions goals”. Oregon’s carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are on track to hit 61 million metric tons in 2020, while the state’s goals call for no more than 51 million metric tons that year. (The Beaver State’s goals for 2020 were legislatively mandated in 2007, a full 13 years before.)

In other numbers, the state is set to blow our carbon budget by 20% as of 2020. Consider the scale of this: overshooting the state’s carbon budget by 10 million metric tons is the equivalent of Oregon building 2.9 new coal plants, or Oregon alone burning 10% of the 570,000 barrels of oil piped daily through the Dakota Access Pipeline.

Putting it visually shows quite starkly the the gap between the state’s goal (yellow line, below) and where we’re heading (into the red) if we don’t get back on track.

“Despite the anticipated reductions due to implementation of Oregon’s RPS and other policies, the state’s forecast is not expected to come within striking distance of either the statutorily mandated 2020 and 2050 emission reduction goals, or the 2035 interim goal that the Commission proposed in our last report.” — GWC Report

There’s good news, though. We can use this opportunity to work toward balancing two budgets: both carbon and transport.

The key takeaway from the report mentioned above, the 2017 Oregon Global Warming Commission Biennial Report to the Legislature, is this (emphasis theirs):

More action is needed, particularly in the transportation sector, if the state is to meet our longer-term GHG [greenhouse gas] reduction goals. In the 2017 session, the Oregon Legislature has an opportunity in the context of discussing a transportation funding package to prioritize policies and programs that will make material differences in the GHG emissions from transportation, and, by extension, the state’s ability to meet its legislatively adopted reduction goals. The Commission recommends that the 2017 Legislature, in addressing Oregon’s overall transportation and transportation funding needs, use the occasion to devise and adopt measures that will bring transportation GHG emissions under control and aligned with Oregon’s GHG reduction goals.

It goes on to say that we’ve done well, but must do more:

Oregon took a nationally significant step last year in committing to end coal generation serving Oregon electricity customers and in setting a new, higher standard for reliance on renewably generated electricity. We cannot rest on those achievements in 2017, but must build on them instead, most emphatically in our largest greenhouse gas-emitting sector, transportation.

Pending legislative decisions this year on transportation, forest management, and how state agencies discharge their climate responsibilities are critically important to the state making progress in a timely and meaningful way.

…

As legislators gather for their 2017 session and likely transportation legislation including a gas tax increase, their choices should be guided by both economic and environmental outcomes including these disturbing transportation emissions trends, and by the findings of the 2013 Sustainable Transportation Strategy ODOT analysis that identifies increased transit service levels, and wider deployment of Electric Vehicles (EV’s) reliant on a clean electrical grid as two critical strategies to contain those emissions.

We should thank every Oregon legislator who, last session, sponsored or supported the Coal to Clean Act, a plan to eliminate the coal-based electricity supply in Oregon and to double renewable energy to 50% by 2040.

Sadly, a key takeaway noted on page 8 of the new report is this: “Oregon’s GHG goals are not likely to be met with existing and planned actions.”

You’ve done well, but must do more.

To remind ourselves how critical this time for action is, a couple photos from the cover of the report may help. This is Mt. Hood, late August, 1984. Note the snow.

Mt Hood, Oregon, covered in snow on August 30, 1984. Photo by Gary Braasch.

And this is Mt. Hood in early September 2013. Note the sno… oh.

Mt Hood, Oregon, devoid of snow on September 11, 2013. Photo by Gary Braasch.

Those striking shots are followed by this tragic note:

The before-and-after cover photographs of Mt. Hood are from Gary Braasch, an Oregon-based international environmental photo-journalist who died in 2016 while pursuing his passion of documenting the painful progress of climate change around the world.

Oregonians and others around the world are dedicating their lives, and sometimes risking and losing them, to confront monumental challenge posed by climate change. Will Senate President Courtney of Salem and House Speaker Kotek of Portland step forward and push strong climate-focused bills this session?

We’re making good progress, but that old saying is especially apt in this case: “time and tide wait for no man”. As Bill McKibben has pointed out, Physics doesn’t negotiate, we have to act now. Regardless of how little we like our odds for success right now, they’ll never be better. We get to push for a solution during a potentially inconvenient political climate today, or accept a definitively uncomfortable physical climate tomorrow.

The New York Times reports that we’re perhaps only months out from seeing an enormous ice shelf completely break off the Antarctic peninsula . A fissure has already formed which is over 100 miles long (calling it a crack doesn’t do justice to truth: it’s 900 feet wide along most its length — big enough to be photographed in time-lapse format from space).

On the other end of the planet, the arctic is so free of ice that we’re seeing Russian oil companies scrambling to launch oil rigs in Arctic waters once covered by solid ice. USA Today reported a few days ago that global sea ice is at record lows.

CNN and others informed us 2016 was the hottest year on record since record-keeping began in the 1880s (the third year in a row that’s happened, with each one a new record and each one warmer than the one before). Indeed, consider: “16 of the 17 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000 [and we’re only 17 years into this century], according to NOAA. To put this in perspective, the last time we had a record cold year was 1911.”

Global warming is not a problem that affords us decades to deal with. If those who’ve done their due diligence researching and crafting the 2017 Global Warming Report are discovering that the Oregon’s policy actions taken to date are insufficient, we cannot wait two more years before slowly changing course.

We must take the legislative and political opportunity we have in this moment to pass policies leading to lower carbon pollution. Especially in the transportation sector, as the report calls out the increasing emissions in that area.

Oregonians deserve to know what ideas legislators are considering to deal with this bipartisan problem in 2017. Considerations should include all those in the Global Warming Commission’s report (increasing transit and electric vehicles powered by a cleaner grid). Specific ideas on those fronts could include:

When looking at how to spend public money on transportation services, programs, and projects, make emissions impact a key decision factor.

Look for ways to reduce Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT), which should drive down carbon pollution while also decreasing maintenance and construction costs (less wear and fewer lanes).

Electrification of public assets like buses, trains, and fleet vehicles.

Support increased transit service and subsidized/free youth passes to support car free habits at an early age (California’s AB-17 would do this), as well as programs like Safe Routes to Schools to increase people- and planet-healthy options like biking and walking to schools.

Perhaps most importantly, on the revenue side of the equation, the legislature should support an equitable means of pricing pollution. Even the Republicans are talking about a carbon tax and dividend system now — go figure. Some variant of that plan is one a majority of people and politicians from all ends of the political spectrum should support, as it could:

Put an effective price on carbon to send a solid market signal, letting every industry and individual find ways to reduce pollution as best they can. Put money back in people’s pocket with an annual rebate. People are then free to use it toward whatever they want: buy an annual bus pass, purchase a more efficient fridge or EV, save it for their kid’s college or just spend it on their next vacation. Take leftover money and put it toward public projects and programs like transit, weatherization programs, etc. that support those who need it most.

But of course, the best ideas in the world don’t matter unless the legislature, led by Speaker Kotek & Senate President Courtney, does it’s job. I think the Global Warming Report (p.12) concurs:

This Report, by providing timely data and recommendations, allows the legislature to in turn do its job.

Soon we’ll see if — and how quickly — Kotek & Courtney can do theirs.