Welcome to another Monday and another sneak peek into some of the VIP Insider content! We are back in the swing of things with player content and some strategy articles in the hopper. Keep checking in for future postings, and as always get in the VIP Insider Slack Chat, which is where you find Keith helping advice most often during the week.

For the 2015-16 NBA Season, DFS Army NBA Insider Membership Includes…

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Click here to find out how to register for an NBA Insiders VIP Plan and Get Keith’s Picks and Projections Monday – Saturday the rest of the season for slates containing 5 or more games.



****Reminder….All picks can change leading up to 7 pm ET as we get more news opening up****

After glancing at the Morning Briefing, I hope you have some targets picked out that appear to be in successful fantasy producing spots. Let’s roll out the position picks for each position, along with some bonus picks at the end. These are picks Keith likes for a variety of reasons. They are not necessarily the “top option on the board,” “chalk options,” “highest scoring,” “GPP only,” or whatever other moniker you want to assign. These are Keith’s favorite options when combining all of these factors….

The graphics you are looking at is a rolling 30-day snapshot indicating average performance above/below expected points along with a percentage of times said player has exceeded projections. The blue line indicates fluctuations in salary over the same 30-day time frame. The bar graph shows how far above/below a particular date resulted vs expected production.

Now, your starting 5….

PG – Jrue Holiday ($7400)

15 gm slash line – 35 FD ppg – 18.7 pts/3.4 reb/7.5 ast – Jrue Holiday could easily be the highest owned player tonight. Eric Gordon is out, and we’ve seen without him in the lineup that Holiday is capable of playing very very well. The best part about it is we get to target 2 positions on the Kings tonight with one player since Holiday gets time at both PG and SG. His price has taken a small hit due to recent play where he has failed to bring the traditional “5X value” in all of his last 8 contests. However, to show his ceiling, Jrue tallied 52 fantasy points as recently as Feb 8 with just 27 minutes of play. The dude has it and tonight he gets the start where we should see minutes into the 30s with confidence.

SG – Nicolas Batum ($6500)

15 gm slash – 29.7 FD ppg – 12.9/6.5/5.5 – Nicolas Batum has seen his price drop recently, which shouldn’t scare you considering what his upside is. In the first meeting of these two teams, Batum had 17 pts and 6 rebounds. with 3 ast and 2 blks for us to get someone with 40+ upside under 7k, it’s almost criminal if you don’t take a serious look at him in both cash and tournaments. Over the past month, per Fantasy Labs, Batum ranks in the 88th percentile in ceiling production and 90th percentile in holding his floor.

Let’s play a game. I will give you 3 players at virtually the same price (2 at $6500 and 1 at $6600). You tell me who you’d pick. The first number is the “floor” and the second number is the “ceiling.” Ready? a) 19/43. b) 14/42. c) 20/46. Congratulations, I know you picked player C and that is Batum.

SF – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($8700)

15 gm slash – 43 FD ppg – 19.2/9.1/5.7 – Giannis has been a man among boys. Even after a slow start yesterday, he still posted his third triple double in the last 7 games and was only one rebound shy of having a fourth against Minnesota. Speaking of his last 7 games, his game log shows FD totals of 67, 62, 36, 62, 30, 40, and 70. That’s pretty much ballin’ out. With MCW out for the season, keep riding the price up because his usage rate skyrockets and allows us to capitilize on the discount we’re getting right now. If you dive just a little deeper, you will quickly see how balanced his production is. For a guy scoring 60+ FD pts routinely, he is only averaging 19 real ppg. To hit those heights, one needs to contribute everywhere. The Greek Freak does just that with no MCW……giving him a solid floor of around 30 FD pts.

PF – Jabari Parker ($6000)

15 gm slash – 29.1 FD ppg – 17.7/6.1/2.4 – Jabari is in a very similar situation to Giannis. He’s been more active around the basket and that has allowed him to see more consistent playing time. It doesn’t hurt that the Bucks are playing at a faster pace than normal which has suited Parker’s skill set more. Looking at usage stats, Parker actually sees the biggest post all-star break jump when MCW is not on the floor. It seems weird, but numbers don’t lie (RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool). His price refuses to come up much and he hasn’t missed 5X value but twice in his last 7. Across the same 7 games, he crossed north of 40 twice, also…….once testing 50 with a score of 47.30 FD pts.

C – Pau Gasol ($9200)

15 gm slash – 41.7 FD ppg – 18.2/11.2/5.6 – Pau is about the only Chicago Bull I would trust completely for cash games. Even when they weren’t playing well, Pau has been a very solid player. He only WOW’s you about once a week, but he’s about as consistent as they come. With Center being the deepest position tonight, it’s a very real possibility that Pau will go underowned tonight in tournaments. Not a lot of bigger men toss the ball around and tally assists like Pau does. While averaging a double-double across his last 15 games, he adds a ridiculous 5.6 assists. This gives him a very safe floor to go along with 70 FD pt upside (which we’ve seen). His last 5 games have been a bit erratic, but he just torched HOU for 57 FD pts and draws another pretty cushy matchup in MIL tonight.

Stud of the Night – Anthony Davis (NOP – PF) Anthony is the cheapest of all the studs and gets a beauty of a fantasy matchup against the Kings at home. Alvin Gentry said this morning that they wanted to get Davis the ball more. Hmmm…..that’s a very interesting scenario….wonder what the outcome could be? I remember Kevin telling us during NFL season to listen when a player bitches about getting the ball AND when a coach says they will be feeding a player the ball more. Remember back to a Miami Dolphin game and how Lamar Miller surprised the uninformed? I’m getting a little deja vu here…..

Value of the Night – Jerryd Bayless (PG – MIL) Ya i know….there’s a theme here….but as of right now, there isn’t a ton of great value on the table. His ceiling is only about 30, and his floor is low, but he’s going to get the minutes with no MCW and with Giannis and Parker handling the ball more. Bayless is left to get open and take jump shots. This is clearly a stackable game tonight.

GPP of the Night – Greg Monroe (C – MIL) Monroe get’s the best matchup of the night at the position and will probably be the lowest owned. Even though he’s coming off the bench, he get’s the minutes still and I have no problem paying that price for a bench player against a horrendous Bulls front court with one of the largest negative rebound differentials in the league. If Pau doesn’t get the ball, it seems the Bucks will. I’ll take my chances with the other big dude on the court sniffing them out.

“Brass Balls” Fade of the Night – LeBron James (PF – CLE) It’s not that LeBron isn’t playable. It’s that out of everyone, he’s the one I like the least….I would rather pay down for AD, or up for Boogie or Steph…..Out of all of the 9800 and above guys, I think LeBron scores the least. Unless of course, Kyrie is out….then it’s going to be tough to fade him.

As always, Keith will be available in the Slack VIP Channel to update you on injury news, and how to pivot if need be….make sure to join in the conversation. He’s always open to answering questions, but if you are going to ask if you should play “Player X” over “Player Y” make sure you check the rankings on the cheat sheets before asking unless news has come out that could possibly change the situation. Thank you!

Cheat Sheets are condensed….remember, there will be players that are not on this sheet that go off. The goal here is to not overload you with a lot of combinations. Sure, I can put in 15 PG’s and 10 PF’s. And then say, “the winning lineup was on the Sheet” but that doesn’t help us. I’m giving you options at varying price points, so you can build varying types of lineup. I feel the last two months of the season, we will have better success by choosing from a smaller pool. Dismissed!

Google Sheets

NBA Cheat Sheet

NBA Cheat Sheet DK PDF

NBA Cheat Sheet FD PDF