1. Not All Mistakes Are Created Equal

Sometimes I’ll find myself writhing over the decision whether or not to mulligan my opening hand. I can think of reasons to keep, but also equally legitimate reasons to toss it back. In these kinds of situations, you’re not losing too much value either way: if a hand is truly very close between keeping and mulliganing, then either decision is not spewing percentage points towards your chances of winning the game. Keeping may give you 45% odds of victory, and mulliganing might be 47%, or perhaps 43%. In this example, if I spend time on getting better at how to make that decision, then the next time it occurs I will have increased my relative chances of winning by 2%. I’ll know when to mulligan and get 47% versus 45% chances, and when to keep and get 45% over 43%. However, in context with other mistakes that may have occurred in this particular game, the mulligan decision value might be small potatoes. It can be useful when you’re evaluating mistakes after a game to ask yourself, “How valuable was this mistake?” and prioritize fixing the root causes of those that are the most valuable. Recognizing what decisions over the course of a game could have resulted in large losses of value rather than small losses, and learning how to make those decisions better, is a good practice to take up. These types of mistakes can involve not understanding a deck’s overall game plan and deciding to race when you should have played for a long game, or even something like, “I’m not paying enough attention when I play.”

2. Cards Are Subjectively, Not Objectively, Good

Cards are only as good as how they interact with the rest of your deck. For instance, someone might take a Zurgo Bellstriker in draft p1 p1 because it sees constructed play and is therefore, “a good card.” In reality, it is likely there’s a card in the pack that will give the drafter a higher chance of winning. Bellstriker sees constructed play because it can be in a situation where all other cards in the deck are working towards the same goal, and because creating that same situation is harder to do and option-limiting in draft, its not a necessarily desirable pick. Less obviously, if you’re drafting and your deck is posed for a robust late game inevitability, a 3 mana 1/4 is subjectively a better card than a 3 mana 3/2, despite the latter being a better pack 1 pick 1 in a vacuum. Relating individual cards to an overall strategy yields a more accurate image of the value of that card, and building decks in draft or constructed accordingly increases your chances of winning.

3. Instinct is Overrated

After some amount of time, one can play a game of Magic on autopilot. This doesn’t mean that one can play a game very well, but that mechanical rules will be followed and one will have some general sense that they are making correct plays. In my experience, instinct is only as good as the basis its formed on. For example, LSV plays on instinct for the majority of a game, according to him (and I’m not meaning to imply otherwise). However, for someone who is still trying to master the game, instinct can be suicide. Instinct in Magic is your brain recognizing that it has been in a certain game situation before, recognizing what plays went right in the past, and then submitting to your consciousness that information. But the concept of what “went right,” is based on how past-you interpreted what occurred as being good or bad, and those interpretations can be wrong. If they were wrong, then operating on instinct can lead to mistakes you won’t even recognize as being mistakes, which means they will remain in your play much longer before being figured out. Asking yourself why you’re making the decisions your’re making at all times will cause you to always evaluate a situation when you’re at your most experienced, rather than with an ingrained idea of what is correct based on determinations made when you were less skilled. LSV didn’t always play on instinct, he spent years evaluating and discussing his plays before that point. At the least, instinct better serves those who’ve put in their 10,000 hours than those who consistently crush FNM, and one should “turn off,” their instinct every once in a while to keep it honed.

This was the very first article posted to this site, and as such such did not enjoy many readings. I like the article, and would like for others to have the opportunity to get value from it, so I felt it appropriate to repost. If you disagree with these concepts, please say so in the comments and let’s have a discussion! If you enjoyed the article, feel free to check out the rest of the articles and videos here, and follow the site!