Redistricting could aid GOP frosh

Congressional redistricting efforts are just getting under way — new maps for Iowa, Louisiana and Arkansas were approved by their respective state legislatures this week — but certain political factors influencing the process already are emerging, House elections guru David Wasserman said Friday. Wasserman, the House editor for The Cook Political Report, gave a briefing on the process to the newsletter’s subscribers.

The bad news for Democrats, he said, is that perhaps 50 House Republican incumbents, many of them freshmen, will get a boost from the new state maps — notably in such states as New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio. And he said that the biggest GOP gains could come in North Carolina.


But he added that Democrats will have opportunities in states where they retain political control, particularly Illinois. Wasserman predicted Democratic gains in California, though he said many experts predict that the state court will supplant the new bipartisan commission in drawing the final map. And he said that a Florida law approved by voters last November could boost Democratic legal challenges, even though Republicans control the state Legislature.

Experts from both parties who joined Wasserman’s discussion mostly accepted his bottom-line conclusions, though they cautioned that plenty of uncertainties remain on the redistricting playing field.

Wasserman previews the congressional redistricting outlook across the nation in his 222-page book, “Better Know a District,” self-published by The Cook Political Report, in which he predicts a political wash between the two parties when the maps are completed. But the bruising battles will place heavy demands on both parties — including coordination with state legislators, map-making skills and legal defenses, Wasserman suggests.

Wasserman details the five “new frontiers” of redistricting: changing demographics, especially the sharp spike in Hispanic population; the availability of new technology that breaks down barriers to political outsiders; reforms in key states; heavy Republican control of state legislatures and the uncertain role of the Democratic-controlled Justice Department.

With creative use of his own map-drawing applications and detailed profiles of the likely politics and mechanics in each state, Wasserman assesses redistricting prospects and offers alternative plans. Although he cautions that the maps are “highly speculative,” his profiles likely will be a resource for many state legislators.

Wasserman, 26, is a protégé of University of Virginia political science professor and elections expert Larry Sabato.

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