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“The rate hike signal in the May statement was a mistake almost the moment it was delivered,” said Adam Button, currency analyst at ForexLive. “You can’t blame Poloz for not seeing tariff trouble coming but you can blame him for signaling clear skies ahead.”

Financial markets are split 50-50 on the chance of a July rate hike, with half expecting the bank to deliver a dovish hike — a rate increase with cautious language – and half expecting a hawkish hold — no hike but a pledge for higher rates ahead.

The rate hike signal in the May statement was a mistake almost the moment it was delivered Adam Button, currency analyst at ForexLive

Button says Poloz should use a speech and news conference on Wednesday to cut expectations for a hike, given the impact tariffs and trade uncertainty will have on Canada’s export-led economy. Recent soft economic data just adds to the case.

“Unfortunately, Poloz has cultivated a well-earned reputation for whip-sawing markets by signalling one thing and doing something else,” Button said. “The most prudent thing to do right now is to head to the sidelines but retain a hawkish stance.”

But others are not so sure, believing the bank wants to add to the three rate hikes since last July in a bid to get official rates closer to normal after years of ultra-low borrowing costs spurred a consumer debt overhang and housing boom.

What’s more, past criticism of surprise moves by the bank may mean it is reluctant to reverse course.

“It’s a tough needle to thread. If they are very close on the decision, it is more strategic to go ahead in July and sound dovish, to signal that they are basically going to do a pause after July and see how the landscape shapes up,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.