Thanks to Davis Hsu — it’s becoming a lot easier to look at the challenge facing the Seahawks this off-season…

so-Seahawks have about $18M to play with for UFA over $2M (have 7 UFA ~ earn over $2M- Okung, Sweez, Kearse, Mebane, Rubin, Irvin, Lane) — DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) January 22, 2016

Hsu also calculates the Seahawks will need to save $4-5m for the rookie class and $5m to re-up the four restricted free agents. The $18m also includes having addressed special teams needs.

Pete Carroll made it clear in his end of season press conference that he wanted to keep the team together. They won’t be able to keep everyone, of course. So the first question to consider is — who’s the priority?

They want to try and create a consistent O-line in 2016. If they let Russell Okung walk, they face the prospect of starting Garry Gilliam at left tackle or a rookie. Either way you’re taking a chance.

J.R. Sweezy didn’t have a great 2015 season but he performed well enough to earn praise from Pete Carroll in the two previous seasons. How much of his performance was effected by the overall struggles of the O-line? And if Okung departs, can they afford to lose their two most experienced linemen?

Bear in mind, if there’s only $18m available — there isn’t really the cash to go and bring in any other moderately expensive veteran offensive linemen.

So keeping Okung and Sweezy is the priority, right?

Possibly not.

Keeping one or both and upgrading other positions on the line (eg left guard) would be the best way to retain some level of consistency so there’s little chance of any growing pains going into 2016. But if it costs $8-9m APY to sign Okung and $4-5m to keep Sweezy — there’s not much left to sign your other free agents. With a strong looking O-line draft coming up — it might be an area they once again try to rebuild.

We recently discussed the possibility of Phil Loadholt being an option for the Seahawks if he’s a cap casualty in Minnesota. After missing so much time through injury he might only command a modest salary. He could add some tackle competition and he has the size they like at left guard and right tackle.

If they’re comfortable with Mark Glowinski at right guard (he played well in week 17 but it is only one game) they might be prepared to move on from Sweezy. Likewise their faith in Gilliam to adapt to the left side might tempt them to allow Okung to depart.

If they both leave you still have $18m to try and keep Rubin, Irvin, Mebane, Lane and Kearse.

Mebane and Rubin might be willing to take around $3-4m. That would constitute a raise for Rubin ($2.6m) and a drop for Mebane ($5.7m). It’s unlikely Mebane, who turned 31 on January 15th, would command $5m anywhere else.

Kearse is an interesting case. Doug Baldwin’s second contract in the NFL paid him $4.3m APY and he signed that deal aged 25. Kearse is 26 in February. Unless he gets a really tempting offer elsewhere — a similar three-year contract paying him $3.5-4m APY makes sense. I’m not sure they’d prioritise keeping Kearse over others — but if the money is available it’s worth keeping a player who just makes big plays.

Bruce Irvin is hard to work out. The Atlanta Falcons only have $19m total cap to play with and might not have the cash to throw big money at Irvin. If he wants to be an edge rusher, they also just drafted Vic Beasley. Are they really willing to carry two undersized speed rushers?

There are other potential suitors of course. The Raiders might be willing to play him at DE/LEO and they have plenty of free cap ($60m). The Chicago Bears are rebuilding their defense and have $54m to play with. He’d play OLB in the 3-4 in Chicago.

Age could be an issue (Irvin turns 29 this year). With at least a couple of good years left though he might get an offer too tempting for the Seahawks to match.

If you only re-sign Rubin, Mebane and Kearse you might have as much as $7-8m to spend on Jeremy Lane and any other business you want to do. And that brings us to perhaps the biggest dilemma.

The Seahawks really suffered on defense with Cary Williams in the line-up and the improvement was obvious when he was replaced by Lane and DeShawn Shead. Tharold Simon is set to return and they also seem to like the younger players at corner. Tye Smith for example received a red-shirt year and could push for playing time next season. It’s a risky strategy though — especially with diminished depth in the secondary these days.

Lane is a talented player with the ability to play outside and in the slot. He’s likely to receive a fair bit of attention in free agency. And while he won’t get $10.5m APY like Byron Maxwell, he might get more than we expect.

The best case scenario for the Seahawks is a one or two year deal with the chance to be a starter and really enhance his stock. He’s only 25 and Maxwell received his new deal approaching age 27. It’s not totally out of the question but it’ll only take one team being seriously interested to make it a pipe dream.

They might need to commit here. We could be talking $6-8m APY. And it might be too much. Yet overpaying to keep a good corner and avoiding further issues there next season might be worth it.

That wouldn’t leave much room to do anything else. A deal for Olivier Vernon or Alex Mack would be out of the question. Ask yourself though — would you rather have either player instead of Jeremy Lane? What gives the Seahawks the best chance to win in 2016? Not needing to replace Lane, adding Vernon as a rotational pass rusher or upgrading from Patrick Lewis to Mack?

Of course, if they let Kearse walk they would have enough room to possibly bring Vernon in on a Michael Bennet style contract if his market is lukewarm. Jabaal Sheard is earning $5.5m APY with the Patriots on a two-year deal. His first year cap hit was $4m. Vernon for Kearse? That’s a different story. But there’s nothing to suggest Vernon won’t get bigger offers.

The big counter to this could be Carroll’s comments on the pass rush when asked last Monday. He said he hoped to find some help there — but then said it’d depend on the options in the draft. It’s perhaps another indicator that any big moves in free agency are unlikely — especially if they want to try and keep a large pool of UFA’s together.

Perhaps I’m overestimating the value of the players? Maybe Lane only commands $4m APY, Kearse $2.5m, Mebane and Rubin in the $2.5m-3m range. Maybe. The rest of the NFL isn’t exactly disinterested in Seattle’s free agents though. Look at the deals for Maxwell, James Carpenter and others.

If they sign Lane, Rubin and Mebane (and maybe Vernon, if the stars align) — the draft needs would be pretty clear. They’d need at least a couple of offensive line picks and a linebacker to replace Irvin. They could add a receiver later on to compete with Kevin Smith and Kasen Williams. They will probably look to draft a running back plus further depth on the D-line and at corner.

Signing a veteran O-liner like Loadholt (there will be alternative options) to a modest deal would take some of the pressure off. They’ve done something like this before (signing Eric Winston to compete with Justin Britt). On that occasion it was security against Britt being able to nail down the starting role. Here it would allow them to go into the draft with a little more flexibility — even if they’d probably have to add at least two more linemen in the draft.

It’s also worth nothing they can offer pay rises/contract extensions to the likes of Doug Baldwin and Michael Bennett without increasing their 2016 cap hit.