Come tax time, residents in Frogtown, Dayton’s Bluff, Payne-Phalen and St. Paul’s West Side may be in for some sticker shock.

Ramsey County officials have crunched the numbers, and some of St. Paul’s poorest neighbors have gained the most home value — at least in percentage terms.

Median estimated home market values were fairly low to begin with and have gone up about 10 percent in Dayton’s Bluff, Payne-Phalen and the West Side. In Frogtown, where median home values were $111,000 last year, values are up 16 percent this year.

Home values are just one of many factors that affect property taxes, but they’re an important one.

And when a neighborhood gains value at a faster clip than the rest of the city, it’s like homeowners there are wearing targets on their backs.

Under St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter’s 2019 tax levy and budget proposal released earlier this month, homeowners in those neighborhoods can expect tax increases of roughly 10 percent, or almost 19 percent in Frogtown. For Frogtown, that’s a potential tax increase of about $266.

Wealthier neighborhoods have gained much less value, at least in percentage terms, and will shoulder less of Carter’s proposed tax increase in terms of percentages.

In Summit Hill, tax increases likely are to add up to about three-fourths of a percentage point, or less than $50, even with major growth in the city tax levy. In St. Anthony Park, tax increases could add up to one-half of a percentage point, or $23.

Most neighborhoods will land somewhere in between. For a median-value home in Highland, for instance, the estimated property tax increase under Carter’s budget is 4.5 percent, or $207.

In an interview Thursday, Carter acknowledged that an 11.5 percent tax levy increase sounds sizable.

But he said that before unveiling his budget proposal this month, his office held a series of outreach events where taxpayers were invited to assemble their own, ideal version of the city budget.

He said residents sent a strong message that they felt road improvements, Parks and Rec center funding, and other “front-facing” spending items were all back-logged.

They called for “a set of investments in things that are top of mind and front-facing — things in our city that people are telling us are right in their faces, like our streets,” Carter said. “In our budget engagement events around the city, that became a common theme — weighing the cost of increasing the property tax levy with weighing a set of strategic investments that will have a tangible impact on people’s lives.”

FROGTOWN — $111K HOME BECOMES $129K

Ramsey County Auditor Chris Samuel delivered his annual “tax trends” presentation to the St. Paul City Council’s budget committee last Wednesday. In some cases, the differences in tax impacts by neighborhood and property type were eye-popping.

“You really need to take a look at your proposed notice in November to see the impact to your individual property,” Samuel said.

St. Paul’s tax base — the value of all properties combined — has grown $2 billion in the past year, with apartment buildings leading the way, thanks to high demand for rental housing.

In St. Paul, apartment values are up about 14 percent, with wide variation.

That means if property tax increases are passed along to renters in the form of higher rent, it’s renters — not homeowners — who may have to shoulder the largest share of Carter’s tax increase.

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For instance, a median-value Frogtown home valued at $111,700 in 2017 saw its value increase to an estimated $129,900 this year, a 16.3 percent increase.

In other words, Frogtown is leading St. Paul in terms of growing home values, relatively speaking. Frogtown’s home values were relatively low to begin with, so an $18,200 increase is an especially big deal.

Largely as a result, Frogtown property taxes would climb about $200, from $1,416 to $1,615 in 2019, a 14.1 percent increase.

And that’s only if the city’s tax levy — the total amount of property taxes collected by the city — stayed flat next year.

But flat is not what we’re looking at.

Carter’s proposed 11.5 percent increase to the tax levy doesn’t necessarily mean your individual property tax will climb 11.5 percent. How the tax burden gets distributed among neighborhoods and types of properties varies quite a bit because some properties are gaining value faster than others, and will make up a larger share of the city’s tax base.

With an 11.5 percent increase in the tax levy, the city portion of a Frogtown homeowner’s bill rises to $1,682, or $266, an increase of 18.8 percent.

As a result, Frogtown homeowners might want to apply for a special targeted property tax refund next year.

The special refund, which has no income restrictions, is available for homeowners if their tax bills have gone up more than 12 percent and $100 in a single year. In the example above, that refund would add up to $58.

That rebate is not automatic — you have to file for it. “We certainly push the property tax refund heavily … but it is something folks need to apply for,” Samuel said.

LESS DRAMATIC IMPACTS ELSEWHERE

Property tax impacts will be much less dramatic elsewhere. On the Greater East Side, an 11.5 percent increase to the tax levy translates into a property tax increase of 6.3 percent.

In the North End, it’s 7.7 percent. In Hamline-Midway, it’s 4.7 percent. In Merriam Park, it’s 2 percent. In Summit Hill and St. Anthony Park, property tax increases would go up less than 1 percentage point.

In Dayton’s Bluff and Payne-Phalen, in contrast, tax bills would rise 10 percent. On the West Side, the increase is 9 percent.

Big changes to those proposals are still possible. The St. Paul City Council has until December to finalize the mayor’s proposed 2019 city budget, including the tax levy, and the St. Paul School District and the Metropolitan Council will also set their own levies.

Ramsey County, which sets a two-year budget, had already indicated a 4.3 increase to its tax levy, equivalent to about $41 for a median-value St. Paul home.

In the St. Paul School District, voters will be asked to approve a referendum this November for an $18.6 million tax increase this fall. If approved, it would add $136 to the yearly tax bill of a $175,000 home.

Meanwhile, the metro area’s fiscal disparities program — which pools commercial and industrial tax proceeds from throughout the metro and redistributes them — will give St. Paul a special boost next year.

From 2018 to 2019, St. Paul’s share of fiscal disparities funding will climb from $25 million to almost $31 million, or about 22.7 percent. For a median-value St. Paul home, that’s a tax savings of about $94.