Shootouts, puck luck, fatigue, Slava Voynov….all have been thrown out there as reasons why the Los Angeles Kings are now in month two of their vacation, while two of their closest rivals are playing for the right to go to the Stanley Cup. Of course there is some real validity in those reasons & yes, most observers would agree that the Kings could/should still be playing. However, the core of truly talented & extremely clutch players did not deliver consistently enough & more importantly, collectively enough in 2014-15. In particular, the data would suggest that Anze Kopitar’s dip in production was a main culprit in the team’s disappointment this season.

You need your best players to be your best players. It’s a cliche but the Kings success over the past few seasons & embarrassing failure in 2014-15 prove that this cliche is indeed very true.

Is there an advanced stat to prove the sudden drop in production from the core of the Kings between a Stanley Cup winning season & a season in which the Kings were worse than the Calgary Flames!?! Of course there is, silly.

Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus developed an objective process to determine who really are the NHL’s best players. It’s known as Goals versus Threshold (GVT) & it’s eerily valid. Ask anyone who the best player in the NHL is & they instantly say Sydney Crosby (well, Kings fans say Drew Doughty — but stay with me here). In Hockey Abstract, basically a hockey analytics bible, Rob Volloman points out that from the 2008-09 season through the 2012-13 season, Crosby was by far the leader in GVT. Volloman wrote, “In terms of GVT per game, which more closely evaluates talent alone, nobody is within even 10% of Crosby & only Alex Ovechkin is within 30%.”

Ok, so there’s some validity here — now what is this GVT & how does it apply to the Kings?

Reggie’s House, a Penguins blog, most clearly explained this stat in a series of posts on advanced stats back in 2013.

GVT is perhaps the single most invaluable statistic for any sport is the relative value of a starting player over his (or her) replacement. In baseball this statistic is known as VORP, Value Over Replacement Player, and essentially in both hockey and baseball it tabulates how much a given player contributes compared to a fictitious, replacement player: in GVT this player is equivalent to the league average productivity of all players at a certain position. As Tom Awad, the creator of GVT asserts, “GVT… is calculated in goals. This is fundamental: goals, not wins, are the basic building blocks of hockey games.” Basically, it’s only by scoring goals and preventing goals that your team actually earns a win, and as such your ability to contribute to that measure sets you above or below the average. “Offensive GVT is extremely straightforward: it measures a player’s contribution to scoring goals. Offensive GVT is based on goals and assists scored above what a replacement-level player would have done with the same ice time.” Although this might seem ridiculously complex all you really need to take away is that any player with a positive GVT is a better than “average” player, and anyone with a negative number is not. For example, Geno’s (Evgeni Malkin’s) GVT from last year was 27.8 or in other words his measurable statistics are almost 28 times better than the league average.

So, we have a statistic that is designed to measure who the best hockey players are & ostensibly to provide you with some facts as you debate which two players are better — Crosby or Ovi? Tyler Johnson or Vladimir Tarasenko? Anze Kopitar or Jeff Carter? Or even more relevant to the Kings going forward — Anze Kopitar or Tyler Toffoli?

Let’s begin with overall GVT. For some context, here is a list of the top ten players from the 2014-15 season (all stats comes from Vollman’s Hockey Abstract site — not to be mistaken with his book analytics bible that I’m currently devouring.

Player GVT Tyler Johnson 22.1 Max Pacioretty 21.6 Jamie Benn 21.5 Vladimir Tarasenko 21.3 Rick Nash 21 Alex Ovechkin 20.8 Tyler Seguin 20.5 John Tavares 19.9 Sidney Crosby 19.6 Jonathan Toews 18.9

There’s your baseline of excellence & it’s hard to argue against the idea that these are ten of the best players from the 2014-15 season. If anything, it foretells the Conn Smythian success of Tyler Johnson in the playoffs so far.

How about the Kings? Here is the overall GVT of the Los Angeles Kings from 2013-14 & also 2014-15 so trends can begin to be seen. Note: I didn’t include David Van Der Gulik, because quite frankly I have no idea who he is.

Player GVT (2013-14) Player GVT (2014-15) Anze Kopitar 20 Jeff Carter 13.9 Drew Doughty 11 Tyler Toffoli 13.1 Jeff Carter 10 Drew Doughty 11.1 Alec Martinez 10 Anze Kopitar 11.1 Slava Voynov 9 Jake Muzzin 10.3 Justin Williams 9 Marian Gaborik 10.2 Tyler Toffoli 8 Brayden McNabb 8.0 Dwight King 7 Alec Martinez 7.8 Marian Gaborik 7 Justin Wiliams 7.7 Jake Muzzin 7 Andrej Sekera 7.4 Robyn Regehr 6 Trevor Lewis 6.7 Willie Mitchell 5 Robyn Regehr 5.7 Matt Greene 4 Tanner Pearson 4.7 Jarret Stoll 4 Dwight King 4.3 Mike Richards 3 Matt Greene 3.7 Dustin Brown 3 Jamie McBain 2.5 Jordan Nolan 2 Kyle Clifford 1.7 Trevor Lewis 1 Jarret Stoll 1.5 Tanner Pearson 1 Dustin Brown 1.3 Linden Vey 0 Andy Andreoff 1.0 Kyle Clifford 0 Nick Shore 0.8 Andrew Campbell 0 Jordan Nolan 0.5 Colin Fraser -1 Slava Voynov 0.4 Jeff Schultz 0.4 Mike Richards 0.2

As you can see, Kopitar had an elite season in 2013-14 & then his play noticeably dipped last season. Also, only Carter & Toffoli are anywhere near the elite production of the league’s top 10. But I don’t want to dwell too much here because as Vollman states, “The best player might not have the highest overall GVT because that would also require the opportunity to play the most games & get the most ice time. However, the best player would most certainly be among the leaders in GVT per season (GVT/82), or better yer, GVT per 60 minutes of play (GVT/60).” That would explain why someone like Tanner Pearson ranks pretty low or even the dismal numbers for Mike Richards given the stretch he played in the AHL…right?

Here are the GVT per season leaders for this past season (with a minimum of 56 games played).

Player GVT/Game Tyler Seguin 0.29 Tyler Johnson 0.29 Vladimir Tarasenko 0.28 Max Pacioretty 0.27 Patrick Kane 0.27 Pavel Datsyuk 0.27 Rick Nash 0.27 Jamie Benn 0.26 Kevin Shattenkirk 0.26 Mark Giordano 0.26

Once again, an elite list of NHL players which now accounts for players like Kane, Datsyuk, & Giordano who missed extended parts of the season due to injury.

Now for the Kings, once again with the past two seasons represented.

Player GVT/82 (2013-14) Player GVT/82 (2014-15) Anze Kopitar 0.25 Tyler Toffoli 0.17 Marian Gaborik 0.17 Jeff Carter 0.17 Alec Martinez 0.16 Marian Gaborik 0.15 Jeff Carter 0.14 Anze Kopitar 0.14 Drew Doughty 0.13 Alec Martinez 0.14 Tyler Toffoli 0.12 Jake Muzzin 0.14 Slava Voynov 0.11 Drew Doughty 0.14 Justin Williams 0.11 Brayden McNabb 0.11 Matt Greene 0.10 Tanner Pearson 0.11 Dwight King 0.10 Andrej Sekera 0.10 Jake Muzzin 0.09 Jamie McBain 0.10 Robyn Regehr 0.07 Justin Williams 0.10 Willie Mitchell 0.07 Trevor Lewis 0.09 Jarret Stoll 0.05 Robyn Regehr 0.09 Mike Richards 0.04 Slava Voynov 0.07 Dustin Brown 0.04 Andy Andreoff 0.06 Tanner Pearson 0.04 Dwight King 0.05 Jordan Nolan 0.03 Matt Greene 0.05 Trevor Lewis 0.02 Jeff Schultz 0.04 Linden Vey 0.02 Nick Shore 0.02 Kyle Clifford 0.0 Kyle Clifford 0.02 Colin Fraser -0.02 Jarret Stoll 0.02 Andrew Campbell -0.03 Dustin Brown 0.02 Jordan Nolan 0.01 Mike Richards 0.0

Agan you see Kopitar’s production go from elite to — not so much. While someone like Tyler Toffoli clearly made that next step towards being elite last season. The ‘eyeball test’ proved that & the fancy stats do as well. You can also get a better gauge of the impact the team felt due to losing players like Slava Voynov (given his production last year) & Tanner Pearson (whose progress mirrored Toffoli). There are also two very expensive under-performers hogging the bottom of this year’s list (and I’m not talking about Jordan Nolan). Mike Richards — 0.0

Lastly, let’s see the GVT per game probably the truest assessment of talent that this statistic can provide. The top ten from 2014-15.

Player GVT/60 Tyler Johnson 1.00 Vladimir Tarasenko 0.94 Rick Nash 0.91 Roman Josi 0.90 Tyler Seguin 0.89 Justin Faulk 0.87 Nikita Kucherov 0.87 P.K. Subban 0.85 Pavel Datsyuk 0.84 Max Pacioretty 0.84

Tyler Johnson had a Sydney Crosby kind of year. From 2008-2013, Crosby’s GVT/60 was .99, this season Johnson bettered even that. Also you can see why many felt like Roman Josi outperformed Shea Weber this season.

The Kings….

Player GVT/60 (2013-14) Player GVT/60 (2014-15) Anze Kopitar 0.72 Tyler Toffoli 0.71 Alec Martinez 0.60 Jeff Carter 0.57 Marian Gaborik 0.59 Marian Gaborik 0.52 Tyler Toffoli 0.56 Tanner Pearson 0.51 Jeff Carter 0.44 Drew Doughty 0.48 Matt Greene 0.39 Jamie McBain 0.45 Dwight King 0.38 Anze Kopitar 0.43 Justin Williams 0.38 Brayden McNabb 0.43 Drew Doughty 0.31 Alec Martinez 0.42 Slava Voynov 0.29 Trevor Lewis 0.39 Jake Muzzin 0.28 Andy Andreoff 0.39 Robyn Regehr 0.23 Justin Williams 0.36 Willie Mitchell 0.20 Jake Muzzin 0.36 Tanner Pearson 0.20 Andrej Sekera 0.28 Jarret Stoll 0.19 Robyn Regehr 0.25 Jordan Nolan 0.17 Dwight King 0.22 Mike Richards 0.15 Slava Voynov 0.17 Dustin Brown 0.14 Matt Greene 0.17 Trevor Lewis 0.09 Jeff Schultz 0.16 Linden Vey 0.08 Nick Shore 0.13 Kyle Clifford 0.02 Kyle Clifford 0.12 Andrew Campbell -0.16 Jarret Stoll 0.08 Colin Fraser -0.16 Dustin Brown 0.06 Jordan Nolan 0.05 Mike Richards 0.02

Has Tyler Toffoli really ascended that far? Should we begin to consider him as the Kings most important player not named Jonathan Quick or Drew Doughty? Both Toffoli & Carter carried the team in 2014-15 & had to do it without the elite level play that Kopitar has displayed in the past. Players like Toffoli, Carter, Tanner Pearson, Drew Doughty, Trevor Lewis, & even the Kings secret weapon Jamie McBain saw their play improve in a failed season. Yes, players like Richards, Brown, Alec Martinez, Marian Gaborik, & Jarret Stoll saw their play regress this season but the one startling constant on all three GVT lists provided is Anze Kopitar.

Kopitar is an elite talent that has been the catalyst of so much of the Kings success over the years. He is, along with Doughty, THE foundational player of this organization. When his play dips the team struggles to win consistently. Imagine if Kopitar could have replicated his play from last year & you coupled that with Toffoli’s season. Maybe that will happen next season. Kopitar has played tons of hockey with very little rest over the past three seasons (I don’t think he ever left the Sochi ice in the Olympics). He turns 28 this summer which means he has either reached his peak or is about to. Regardless, so much of the Kings fate next season will fall on the shoulders of Anze Kopitar & now Tyler Toffoli as well- it will be their ability to play at an elite level that may ultimately determine the team’s fate in 2015-16.