NICOLA Sturgeon has warned a “weary and frustrated” public against flouting lockdown rules as statistics revealed an increase in road traffic and signs that more elderly people are taking bus trips.

The First Minister issued the plea as she cautioned against hopes that the restrictions to suppress the spread of coronavirus could be lifted “in any meaningful way” after next week’s lockdown review deadline, on May 7.

Ms Sturgeon said that the measures appeared to have reduced transmission of the virus in the community “very significantly”, with the reproductive number now believed to be below one.

The ‘R number’ refers to the number of people each infected person passes a virus on to.

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Ms Sturgeon said: “Before lockdown we think it was above three so that is real and very positive progress, and that matters.

“With the R number below one that means that every 100 people with the virus will pass it on to fewer than 100 people, and so on. The total number of cases will gradually decline.

“We do think that is happening now. However, we are not confident that the R number is very far below one yet.

“That means easing up on restrictions now, either formally by Government or informally by people becoming a bit less compliant as we all get increasingly weary and frustrated, will quickly send it back above one.”

It came as Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, said current estimates put the UK’s R number between 0.6 and 0.9.

However, he said it could be higher or lower than that range in different parts of the country.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, returning to lead the daily Downing Street briefing for the first time since he was diagnosed with Covid-19, also urged the public to stick to the rules.

“It is vital that does not fray and we don’t see people starting to disregard what we are saying,” he said.

Ms Sturgeon pointed to evidence that there had been an increase in people travelling in Scotland in recent days, with road and free bus travel up.

The National Concessionary Travel Scheme applies to anyone over 60 and some disabled people, but nearly 90 per cent of card holders are older Scots.

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Over 70s, especially those with chronic conditions, are among the groups who have been asked to stay at home during lockdown.

The number of people using concessionary transport increased by almost 17% last week, said Ms Sturgeon.

And while car traffic on major roads is a third of what it was pre-lockdown, Ms Sturgeon said this was 5% higher this week than last week. There had also been a 10% increase in cars using some town and city routes.

“Both of these are from low starting points but they are a source of concern to us right now,” said Ms Sturgeon, as she urged to public to consider whether they were sticking as strictly to the lockdown guidance now as they were a few weeks ago.

She added: “Was your journey really essential? You might think it is only you making an extra journey, and it is only one trip.

"And you might feel you deserve it after weeks of restraint. Believe me, I really understand all of that.

“But all of it adds up. And if everybody starts easing off, the virus will quickly take off again and it will have devastating consequences for all of us.”

She said it is too early to introduce a ‘bubble’ scheme which was previously suggested as a way of allowing people to see a small group of around 10 chosen friends and family from outwith their household.

“Anything like that right now might edge us over the crucial one number,” said Ms Sturgeon.

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The First Minister pointed to the experience in Germany, where a relaxation of social distancing measures from April 20 has been blamed for a spike in the R number.

On Tuesday, the head of the Robert Koch Institute, Lothar Wieler, said it had risen from around 0.7 to 0.96 since lockdown was eased.

Germany allowed small businesses to open earlier this month, with the use of cloth masks now mandatory on public transport and, in most regions, in shops.

Smaller stores, car and bicycle dealers and bookshops were also allowed to re-open on Monday and other public spaces, including museums and zoos, have now been granted permission to resume operating from today provided they can fulfill social distancing and hygiene requirements.

Germany’s testing regime was credited with helping to keep its death toll from coronavirus comparatively low compared to Spain and Italy, which have also eased their lockdown measures.

Ms Sturgeon said she will provide an update tomorrow on the Scottish Government’s progress to expand testing capacity, including the number of tests being performed and plans to expand the regime.