Every so often I’m asked to list the conservative movement’s most important recent accomplishments. One always ranks near the top: criminal justice reform.

With leadership from Republican governors and legislators and groups such as Right on Crime, conservatives have pushed to rein in runaway prison spending and adopt cost-conscious correctional policies that improve public safety. Starting 10 years ago in Texas, more than half of all states have now shifted course, changing laws to ensure that violent offenders serve hard time while those who are not a danger are steered toward less expensive alternatives that can help alter the paths of their lives and make communities safer.

Taxpayers benefit. In 2007 the Pew Charitable Trusts projected that state prisons would grow 14% over five years, costing states $27.5 billion more. Instead, the reforms have bent the curve. The state prison population is down 5%. Between 2010 and 2015, 31 states reduced both crime and imprisonment, proving that fiscal discipline and safe streets can go hand in hand.

Many of us on the right are concerned by rumblings we’re hearing in Washington and beyond. It’s disturbing that reports of isolated increases in violence in a handful of cities are fueling predictions of a looming American crime wave. There is no evidence for such predictions. The U.S. violent crime rate rose 3.4% last year, but it remains about half of what it was in 1991, when crime reached its modern-day peak.

While any uptick in crime merits our attention, we must be clear-eyed in our interpretation of the numbers and while developing an effective response. Americans are safer than they have been at almost any time in the last quarter-century, and returning to the failed policies of the past would be a costly mistake.