Ferrari driver can wave goodbye to his slim title chance if he fails to bring Mercedes rival’s roll to an end at the Japanese GP

Last season the Japanese Grand Prix played host to the dramatic conclusion of a trilogy of races that left Sebastian Vettel’s title hopes shattered and Ferrari shell-shocked.

So strong for so long in the Formula One championship, the German was forced to endure a torturous collapse as Lewis Hamilton took a huge lead at Suzuka. The Mercedes driver sealed the title two races later in Mexico. Now back in Japan, Vettel is once again barely clinging on to his challenge, an experience that will be all the more painful second time around.

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He had led the title race last year until the 13th round at Monza but he came to Suzuka on the back of a misjudgment in Singapore that caused him to crash and an engine replacement in Malaysia that forced him to start at the back from where he could manage only fourth place. By Japan he was 34 points in arrears. Nothing short of victory was required but an almost unheard of misfortune sealed his fate. A spark plug failure ended his race after four laps, Hamilton won and took an almost unassailable 59-point lead.

Vettel’s position is now, if anything, even worse. The pressure is greater and Hamilton is in the form of his life. He holds a 50-point lead, accrued over five wins from the past six races against a stronger Ferrari car. Even now, in his 12th season and with four titles, Hamilton has perhaps surprised himself with his ascent to another level in the mastery of his craft.

“I am really happy. When I look back at a lot of these races I couldn’t have hoped for better performances,” he said. “There have been some real dream experiences, races where I would dream of performing at those levels. That’s what I live for.”

Vettel took the disappointment last season well. He admitted Ferrari could not keep up with Mercedes in the final third of the title race so knew the odds were against him. Now there is no such comfort. What has made Hamilton’s run so exceptional is that he has achieved it against a driver who had the advantage of a quicker car. Hamilton has executed almost to perfection but Vettel and Ferrari, with their best shot at the championship in a decade, have been left to rue errors that are likely to leave them empty-handed.

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Hamilton’s form has allowed no breathing space and the past six races make for painful reading at Ferrari. Hamilton’s run in Germany, to win in the rain from 14th, was huge and in contrast to the mistake that led to Vettel crashing. Pole in the wet in Hungary proved vital to the win in the next round for Hamilton who, when then outpaced at Spa, ensured he minimised the damage with second place.

At Ferrari’s home race at Monza Vettel crashed into Hamilton, who was passing him. The German’s spin meant he finished fourth as Hamilton took the flag. Then in Singapore, where a Ferrari fightback was expected, Hamilton simply turned the screw. His qualifying lap at Marina Bay was possibly the best of his career and unmatchable. He converted it to a win and it was followed by another in Russia when Mercedes opted to ensure Vettel was shown no quarter by employing team orders.

Always strong in the second half of the season, this run has been far from solely down to Hamilton. The team have had to develop and work harder and better than ever. They go into the Japanese Grand Prix, which Hamilton has won four times, including three in the past four years, with a car that appears to have nosed ahead of the Ferrari for the first time since the British Grand Prix.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Lewis Hamilton said he ‘did not know I was going to improve the way I have this season’. Photograph: Clive Mason/Getty Images

“You have hopes you will improve and most years you get better and better through the year,” Hamilton said. “I didn’t know I was going to improve the way I have. The communication with my team has got better, the strategy gets better.”

Vettel must be aware the game is all but up. Once again in Japan, a race he too has won four times, he must take the flag to keep his faint hopes alive and even then the mathematics point to Mexico City once more bringing the curtain down.

He is having to take what he can from this glorious Suzuka circuit, the spectre of the big picture perhaps just too much to bear. “I don’t like the now or never approach,” he said. “I don’t think there’s much sense in that. No, I think you attack every weekend, every weekend is different, the track is different, the circumstances are different.

“I love this track, it’s my favourite track, so I’d better enjoy it and not spoil it by starting to count the things that are against me and focus on the things that are working for me.”

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The difficulty is that of late so little has been going his way and if there was any pleasure to be had in practice it was Hamilton and Mercedes who were savouring it. He was the quickest driver in the morning and afternoon, with Vettel almost a second down in both sessions. There was a distinct impression that, as in 2017, Japan heralds the beginning of the endgame for Hamilton.

“We just want to get it done,” he said. “You want to get the championship whenever you can. As long as you cross the finish line in the lead that’s really all that matters.”