Underline “resilient” in the list of adjectives that describe Austin’s strong economy, because the local boom has yet to show signs of ebbing despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, early indications of a manufacturing slowdown nationally and growing fears of a possible recession.

A key measure of the economy in the Austin metro area, called the Austin business-cycle index, grew at an annualized pace of 8.5% in July, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, a rate that has held largely steady since April but that previously hasn't been reached since late 2015. The recent growth is well above a rate of 7.2% in July 2018 and the index's long-term average of 6%.

"Generally, the numbers look quite good" for Austin, said Christopher Slijk, a Dallas Fed economist. "There is a lot of (business) activity and a lot of demand."

Worrisome trends have been on the rise nationally, however, with an ABC News/Washington Post poll this week finding that most respondents -- 60% -- consider a recession likely next year. The poll, which was conducted early this month, came as U.S. manufacturing data for August pointed to the first contraction in the sector in three years, amid ongoing trade tensions that have weighed on business confidence.

But such red flags have yet to show up in barometers of Austin's tech-heavy economy.

In its new report, the Dallas Fed actually doubled its estimate of first-quarter job growth in the Austin metro area, revising the figure to 3.6% from 1.8% initially. It also said local job growth has accelerated as the year has progressed, pegging the annualized pace at 4.6% for the three months ending in July.

New jobs in the sector that includes the high-tech industry climbed by an annualized 7.5% during the three months ending in July, while new jobs in the sector that includes retail trade increased by an annualized 8.7%. The construction industry, which has been booming in the city, registered no job gains during the period, although Slijk said the finding resulted largely from a dip in July and could prove to be a one-month data anomaly.

Overall, local job growth "appears to be pretty broad based," he said. Economic "activity has been continuing at a strong pace, and it has been continuing to propel job growth."

But a flip side of the trend -- an extremely tight local labor market -- has been plaguing local employers, and the Dallas Fed's latest report offers little hope of imminent relief. The Austin area labor force has increased by only 0.9% on an annualized basis through July this year, according to the report, compared with growth of 2.7% last year and 3.6% in 2017.

The Dallas Fed has previously chalked up the slowdown in labor-market growth to ebbing in-migration of workers from other areas of the country, which has been one of the spigots feeding Austin’s boom. The broad U.S. economic expansion appears to be enabling more people to find work in their hometowns and forego pulling up stakes for greener pastures, it said.

"The (economic) performance of Texas relative to the rest of the U.S., that edge has eroded a little bit," Slijk said Wednesday. So "the incentive for people to pick up and move to Austin and Texas is not quite as strong as it used to be."

A number of economists have warned that the trend, combined with a sub-3% unemployment rate, eventually will choke off growth in the Austin metro area because local businesses won't be able to find enough employees to raise production indefinitely. But that fear has yet to materialize, according to the Dallas Fed's latest report.