The questions from skeptical lawmakers come in rapid fire — but Rep. Paul Ryan, they say, always seems to have a ready response.

What would President Barack Obama’s trade deal mean for steelworkers in the Rust Belt? How would it affect agricultural interests in the Midwest? Most commonly, House Republicans need to be convinced this isn’t simply a power grab by a president they don’t trust.


Over the past several months, the Wisconsin Republican has worked — almost single-handedly, and quite stealthily — to build support to give Obama additional authority to negotiate a massive trade deal with Pacific Rim nations. It’s one of the most aggressive, meaningful — and risky — legislative efforts of Ryan’s political career. More than perhaps any leading House Republican, he is taking ownership of the issue — and failure is still very much a possibility.

The Senate is almost certain to clear the so-called trade promotion authority legislation before its Memorial Day recess at the end of the week. When the bill reaches the House, Capitol Hill insiders are predicting one of the toughest legislative battles of the Obama era.

Trade politics scramble ordinary legislative coalitions, making this whip operation tough and unpredictable. More than 150 Democrats are vehemently opposed to the trade bill despite the push by a president of their own party. And Republican leaders like Ryan are working to close ranks behind the Democratic president they tried to unseat.

In many ways, it’s what Ryan’s been waiting for: the chance to put his imprimatur on the Ways and Means Committee, the top-notch panel on which he has served for many years.

If he’s successful, it will be a legacy-burnishing accomplishment. If Ryan fails, it matters little whether Democrats and Republicans are to blame. Ryan’s detractors are sure to relish in an I-told-you-so moment months in the making. While he’s universally known as a policy wonk, some Republicans privately wonder whether Ryan has the vote-counting acumen to get complex legislation through the House.

“I just think it would be a big mistake for our country if we were to fail to do this,” Ryan said in an interview Tuesday, speaking broadly about trade promotion legislation. “I think this would be a punctuation mark on the declining narrative of America and we should not have our fingerprints, as Republicans, on anything that makes it look like we’re in decline. Trade is very important, it’s about time that this administration gets around to it. Forget our party, this is important for our country.”

In an almost cruel turn of events, Ryan’s prospects for success hinge partly on the president who defeated him and Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. With House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) against the legislation and her deputy, Steny Hoyer of Maryland, all but silent, the president is now leaning hard on the Congressional Black Caucus to support the effort, with little appreciable success.

Asked how many votes Democrats need to provide, Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said, “more than they have now.”

The task is so important, Ryan has taken it upon himself to personally court and count votes. | Getty

Ryan’s task is so important, and the issue so weighty, the 45-year-old has taken it upon himself to personally court and count votes. Unlike some committee chairmen who write legislation and dump it in leadership’s lap, Ryan and Speaker John Boehner’s close ally, Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), have been running a makeshift whip operation that’s already secured more votes than many were expecting.

Some senior Republicans privately say Ryan has a better handle than anyone in Washington on whether Obama’s top legislative priority has a prayer of passage.

Passage is, of course, far from certain. Democrats boast fewer than 20 public supporters, and Republicans believe Obama’s party will need to produce in the neighborhood of 30 yes votes. There’s concern that lawmakers will head home for the recess and hear from constituents that the trade deal should be scuttled. That’s why Ryan’s cautious optimism clashes with some pessimistic Republican insiders who believe passage of TPA is a pipe dream.

For months, Ryan himself kept track of the vote count. GOP leaders only recently got intimately involved.

This week alone, Ryan met with the House GOP’s whip team on several occasions. He also huddled with more than a dozen undecided lawmakers to try to bring them on board. On Thursday, Ryan will speak to a special meeting of all House Republican lawmakers about trade policy before they head home for recess.

Ryan’s ad hoc whip operation is now working in tandem with Scalise’s team, sharing vote counts and targeting members who need more convincing. In an interview Tuesday, Scalise said he and Ryan are working together “very closely.” Scalise’s whip team has surveyed the entire GOP Conference, and the Louisiana Republican and Ryan worked together to figure out with whom they need to spend time talking, Scalise told POLITICO.

Ryan hasn’t just been working fellow lawmakers. He’s also trying to keep outside conservative groups like Club for Growth and The Heritage Foundation neutral — if not supportive — on the trade bill.

Club for Growth President David McIntosh is “confident in Chairman Ryan as being a strong free trade advocate, as well as for his principled opposition to China currency provisions,” according to the group’s spokesman, Doug Sachtleben. The club has signaled support to Capitol Hill for TPA, but it remains opposed to a separate bill to provide aid for workers displaced by trade, as well as to China currency measures. Ryan said he understands the group’s position but said the trade assistance measure is “necessary to get it passed.”

The Heritage Foundation is less supportive.

“TPA has gotten bogged down in the politics of protectionism and welfare spending,” said Terry Miller, director of the foundation’s Center for Trade and Economics. “Congress needs to tell the president to negotiate trade agreements that reduce tariffs and nontariff barriers to trade. Nothing more and nothing less. Anything else is likely to do harm rather than good.”

Ryan has also turned to the business community for cover when lawmakers were concerned about issues surrounding transparency of what’s included in the deal, as well as immigration and congressional authority. Kevin Madden, who represents the Business Roundtable-led Trade Benefits America Coalition, said Ryan has been “unrelenting in engaging members.”

“He is an authentic expert on this with many members,” Madden said. “They feel much more assured when they are actively talking to Chairman Ryan, or Tiberi or House Ways and Means Committee staff because they have such a deep knowledge of this issue.”

Perhaps Ryan’s tallest task in the Capitol has been to tamp down concerns on the right that the legislation would hand Obama a measure of unfettered power. Ryan has been making the case that the legislation actually gives Congress more of a say than it has now.

“What Paul is trying to do is help them understand the difference between this agreement and the agreements of the past,” said Rep. Diane Black (R-Tenn.), a member of Ryan’s Ways and Means Committee who supports his efforts. “Congress really does have more authority in this bill than what the House has had in the past.”

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