There's been a rise in pessimism around Mariners twitter, which at first I didn't really understand. I don't think the current roster is great, and the Astros are certainly better on paper, but this is a team that won 87 games last year and hasn't lost much of anything. Instead they've added a shortstop who was worth 5 wins last year (yes, that will almost certainly come down). The outfield is younger and more athletic. And they probably aren't done yet, or at least shouldn't be. I still expect some kind of pitcher to be added.

All things considered, this team is probably about as good as it was last year. But one thing that could be a bit concerning is the offensive core of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Nelson Cruz.

Those three combined for 15.7 fWAR last season -- 6 from Cano, 5.5 from Seager, and 4.2 from Cruz. They also have an average age of 33, and back in 2015 combined for just 10.8 fWAR. Of course, 2015 was a down year for Cano, and we know he is a superstar. But is he a 6 WAR talent at age 34? Can Nelson Cruz continue to put up 4 win seasons into his late 30s as a DH? Was Seager's breakout real?

These questions are absolutely valid, as evidenced by next year's projections. Steamer pegs them to combine for just 9.5 fWAR, and depth charts isn't much better at 9.8. And projections are important, they do a good job considering they are essentially trying to predict the future. But I do think context is important, and sometimes that's missed.

I want to focus specifically on Cruz, who the systems are the most critical of, and have been for his entire Mariner career. It made sense at first: he was an older, power only, ~1.5 WAR player who suddenly started mashing. But he has since sustained that performance, and the systems haven't quite caught up.

Nelson Cruz had a 147 wRC+ last year, so I found the players who had a wRC+ between 140 and 155 in their age-36 season. I am then going to look at what that group did the following season, to get some more information on a possible decline. I am beginning at 1920, which is kind of arbitrary but I wanted a sample that was large enough to matter, without being so large that it become unmanageable. Here is that list:

Season Name PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wRC+ WAR 1943 Luke Appling 677 3 13.3% 4.3% 0.079 0.342 0.419 0.407 146 7.8 1971 Roberto Clemente 553 13 4.7% 11.8% 0.161 0.368 0.370 0.502 148 6.5 1923 Eddie Collins 632 5 13.3% 1.3% 0.093 0.360 0.455 0.453 145 5.8 1986 Mike Schmidt 657 37 13.5% 12.8% 0.257 0.280 0.390 0.547 148 5.8 1970 Hank Aaron 598 38 12.4% 10.5% 0.275 0.276 0.385 0.574 146 5.2 1993 Paul Molitor 725 22 10.6% 9.8% 0.178 0.343 0.402 0.509 144 4.8 1945 Mel Ott 532 21 13.3% 7.7% 0.191 0.303 0.411 0.499 150 4.6 1949 Tommy Henrich 502 24 17.1% 6.8% 0.238 0.266 0.416 0.526 149 4.5 1924 Tris Speaker 575 9 12.5% 2.3% 0.167 0.341 0.432 0.510 141 4.4 1982 Hal McRae 676 27 8.1% 9.0% 0.233 0.307 0.369 0.542 147 4.3 1983 Darrell Evans 611 30 13.7% 13.3% 0.239 0.278 0.378 0.516 148 4.2 2016 Nelson Cruz 667 43 9.3% 23.8% 0.268 0.320 0.360 0.555 147 4.2 1994 Wade Boggs 434 11 14.1% 6.7% 0.148 0.345 0.433 0.489 143 4.2 1924 Cy Williams 636 24 10.5% 7.7% 0.224 0.328 0.403 0.552 141 4.0 1971 Norm Cash 523 32 11.3% 16.4% 0.248 0.284 0.372 0.531 152 3.8 2000 Will Clark 507 21 13.6% 13.6% 0.227 0.337 0.418 0.546 146 3.8 1959 Gene Woodling 524 14 14.9% 6.7% 0.155 0.298 0.402 0.455 141 3.4 1972 Harmon Killebrew 532 26 17.7% 17.1% 0.219 0.231 0.367 0.450 141 3.4 2007 Jim Thome 536 35 17.7% 25.0% 0.287 0.316 0.410 0.563 150 3.4 1976 Rico Carty 628 13 10.7% 7.2% 0.132 0.314 0.379 0.442 141 3.3 1998 Eric Davis 508 28 8.7% 21.3% 0.254 0.372 0.388 0.582 151 3.2 1982 Reggie Jackson 621 39 13.7% 25.1% 0.257 0.316 0.375 0.532 145 3.0 1968 Mickey Mantle 547 18 19.4% 17.7% 0.161 0.262 0.385 0.398 145 2.8

The thing that jumps out is how elite that company is: 12 of the 23 are in the Hall of Fame (and Jim Thome could make 13 once he is eligible). Cruz is right middle of that list in WAR, which gives us a nice range. Obviously, everyone on the list was an above average player, from 2.8 WAR Mickey Mantle to 7.8 WAR Luke Appling. Also, Nelly's BABIP isn't crazy compared to the rest, and he has the third highest ISO and most home runs among them, which are nice things to note.

Now let's take a look at what those players went on to do in their age-37 seasons:

Season Name PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wRC+ Δ wRC+ WAR Δ WAR 1925 Cy Williams 375 13 14.1% 9.1% 0.191 0.341 0.435 0.522 136 -5 2.1 -1.9 1984 Darrell Evans 483 16 15.9% 14.5% 0.152 0.241 0.353 0.384 107 -41 1.3 -2.9 1924 Eddie Collins 676 6 13.2% 2.4% 0.106 0.352 0.441 0.455 137 -8 4.9 -0.9 1999 Eric Davis 223 5 13.5% 22.0% 0.147 0.319 0.359 0.403 97 -54 0.1 -3.1 1960 Gene Woodling 529 11 15.9% 7.6% 0.131 0.289 0.401 0.414 128 -13 3.5 0.1 1983 Hal McRae 654 12 7.6% 10.4% 0.151 0.333 0.372 0.462 128 -19 2.7 -1.6 1971 Hank Aaron 573 47 12.4% 10.1% 0.341 0.291 0.410 0.669 191 45 7.1 1.9 1973 Harmon Killebrew 290 5 14.1% 20.3% 0.105 0.299 0.352 0.347 98 -43 0.7 -2.7 2008 Jim Thome 602 34 15.1% 24.4% 0.258 0.273 0.362 0.503 122 -28 1.6 -1.8 1946 Mel Ott 78 1 10.3% 19.2% 0.059 0.077 0.171 0.132 -16 -166 -0.9 -5.5 1987 Mike Schmidt 613 35 13.5% 13.1% 0.255 0.286 0.388 0.548 139 -9 6.1 0.3 1972 Norm Cash 501 22 10.0% 12.8% 0.186 0.258 0.338 0.445 128 -24 1.7 -2.1 1994 Paul Molitor 516 14 10.7% 9.3% 0.176 0.355 0.410 0.518 139 -5 3.4 -1.4 1983 Reggie Jackson 458 14 11.4% 30.6% 0.146 0.254 0.290 0.340 74 -71 -1.5 -4.5 1977 Rico Carty 521 15 10.7% 9.8% 0.152 0.286 0.355 0.432 115 -26 1.3 -2.0 1972 Roberto Clemente 413 10 7.0% 11.9% 0.167 0.332 0.356 0.479 135 -13 4.0 -2.5 1950 Tommy Henrich 178 6 15.2% 3.4% 0.265 0.252 0.382 0.536 131 -18 0.9 -3.6 1925 Tris Speaker 518 12 13.5% 2.3% 0.189 0.383 0.479 0.578 167 26 6.4 2.0 1995 Wade Boggs 541 5 13.7% 9.2% 0.098 0.350 0.412 0.422 125 -18 4.0 -0.2 AVERAGE -26 -1.7

The results are pretty all over the place, which I suppose makes sense. Hank Aaron and Tris Speaker actually added about 2 wins to their game. Schmidt more or less maintained his overall value. Most everyone else declined, with Mel Ott being the most extreme case at -166 and -5.5 (though he only had 78 PA due to age and injuries, which I will touch on).

I have the average changes in wRC+ and WAR listed at the bottom -- -26 and -1.7 respectively. However, some of that is because of guys like Ott, Tommy Henrich, Harmon Killebrew and Eric Davis, who had less than 300 plate appearances due to injuries. If we remove them, the average drops move to -15 and -1.2. Of course, injury is always a possibility and can't be totally ignored. But I am interested in what he might do if he remains healthy, not what it will look like if he gets hurt.

If we apply those drops of -15 and -1.2 to Nelson Cruz, we get a 132 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR for 2017, quite a bit better than what the real projection systems have. To me, that seems more reasonable given what we know about Cruz. Interestingly, if we instead choose to include those injured players and take the -26 and -1.7, we get projections of 121 and 2.5, pretty similar to Steamer and Depth Charts.

I maintain that the former passes the smell test a bit more, but again, the projections have their reasons for what they spit out. They may even take all this into account, in addition to everything else they consider. I just thought it made some sense to compare Cruz to similar players at similar ages to see what else we can gather.

If at the time of his signing you had told me Nelson Cruz would be projected for ~2-2.5 WAR in the third year of his deal (with some other information suggesting it may be more like 3 wins) I'd have thought you had gone nutty. And yet, here we are. While we would certainly all prefer the 3 win season, something closer to 2 wouldn't be a killer, and is still more than most of us expected when Jack Z brought in another old, right-handed DH.

In all likelihood, The Trio isn't going to provide 15+ WAR again. But I'll take the over on the ~9.5 that the projection systems are suggesting.