Theresa May ups ante by saying the only alternative to her Chequers plan is no deal

Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, bringing you the top stories of the past week in Brexitland, arranged in a way that might – hopefully – allow you to make some sense of them.

Talking of making sense of Brexit, this might help: Brexit - the final deal, a Guardian Live Event on 11 October featuring Alison McGovern the Labour MP for Wirral South; Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe; and Henry Newman, of Open Europe; and chaired by Heather Stewart, the Guardian’s joint political editor. Join them to discuss the final Brexit deal and key takeaways. You can book tickets here.

Meanwhile, if you’d like to receive the briefing as a weekly email, please sign up here. And you can catch up with our Politics Weekly podcast right here.

Finally: producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters, and it may be yours too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian supporter. Thank you.

Top stories

Two days before EU leaders sit down in Salzburg to discuss Brexit for the first time since June, Theresa May has upped the domestic ante, telling the BBC that MPs should understand the only alternative to her Chequers plan (see below) is no deal. That will only reinforce the longstanding EU27 view that Brexit will ultimately be decided in Westminster, not Brussels.

Efforts to avoid a hard border across the island of Ireland have stalled, with the UK rejecting EU proposals that would in effect keep Northern Ireland in the customs union and single market without drawing a border in the Irish Sea.

As the endgame begins, the Irish border remains Brexit’s most intractable problem. The UK’s Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, claimed talks were “closing in” on a solution, but EU diplomats said in reality they were at a near impasse.

British attempts to win approval for Chequers by going over the head of the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, to national leaders will not fly: Salzburg will have warm words for parts of the plan but will reject its key proposals on customs and common standards and insist the Irish border issue must be sorted.

Meanwhile, Michael Gove, the environment secretary and arch-Brexiter, has done his level best to raise the EU’s confidence in Britain’s intentions, saying the Chequers deal is “the best … for now” but that MPs could undo it once the UK has left.

And there was a veritable avalanche of warnings on the impact on the UK of a no-deal: the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, said it could be as bad as the 2008 financial crash; France warned it might block trains and planes from the UK; the government had bad news for drivers, passport-holders and mobile phone users; and the IMF warned of “dire consequences”, not least a recession.

What’s next?

Can Chequers last? Tory Brexiters detest it (the hardline ERG group is determined to “chuck Chequers”, calling it an insult to UK sovereignty; David Davis and Boris Johnson both quit the cabinet over it).

Labour dislikes it too, and the EU27, while welcoming some parts of it and saying it could form the basis for an agreement, has flatly rejected its core trade elements as cherry-picking and incompatible with EU principles.

Even hawkish cabinet ministers such as Sajid Javid and Gove have said only that it is the best plan right now. And with Tory remainers heartily disliking it as well, it will prove very difficult to get through parliament.

But it’s all that’s on the table. If it survives the Tory conference and October EU summit, the fact that the political declaration on the future relationship that will form part of the withdrawal agreement looks set to be brief and vague might mean a much-amended Chequers could just live on.

Best of the rest

Top comment

The Observer comes out in favour of a second vote:

For two years, we have been failed by Britain’s political class on the most important question this country has faced in decades. Neither party has been prepared to level with us about what leaving the EU might cost. The Observer appeals to all MPs: it’s not too late to put the national interest first. We are being led to the brink of disaster as we prepare to leave the EU. We must be given the chance to deliver our verdict on the terms of departure. We must have a referendum on the deal.

In the New Statesman, Paul Mason says Labour must take the plunge and back a public vote. By promising a Norway-style deal followed by a public vote, he says, the party can unite the country and move on:

Anybody who thinks the anger that fed Brexit, and the anger that would arise if Brexit were summarily cancelled, would just evaporate simply hasn’t sat in a small-town pub for long enough. The nightmare would be a Pegida-style movement, led by Ukip 2.0, operating as a political tag team with a Tory party led by the hard Brexiteers. If Act One was the referendum and Act Two the long agony of Theresa May, we need to make sure Act Three does not give star billing to Tommy Robinson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. As the chaos surrounding May’s administration intensifies, clarity on a Norway-style deal and the offer of a second vote have become indispensable for Labour to achieve what it says it wants to do: unite the country and move on.

Top tweet:

Pretty much sums up Brexit, really: