The NFL Playoffs are upon us, and Wild Card weekend features exciting rematches and great match-ups. Only one team is favored by more than 3 points (Bears), which means this weekend should be filled with toss-ups and close games. Given this, I decided to run simulations of all four games to see which teams may be overvalued or underrated.

For the simulations, I used strength of schedule adjusted points scored and allowed per game for each team. Then, I averaged the expected performance of one team’s offense and the other team’s defense to arrive at a projected score for each team. Using a 10% home field advantage, I simulated each match-up 1000 times. Here are the results:

Colts @ Texans (-1) T: 48

Game:

Colts Texans Average Score 22.2 23.4 Chance of Winning 45.5% 54.5% Chance of Covering 49.2% 50.8%

Totals:

Average Total 45.6 Chance of Over 41.8% Chance of Under 58.2%

Value Picks:

Total Under 48

Seahawks @ Cowboys (-2) T: 43

Game:

Seahawks Cowboys Average Score 22.2 22.9 Chance of Winning 45.7% 54.3% Chance of Covering 56.2% 43.8%

Totals:

Average Total 45.1 Chance of Over 57.5% Chance of Under 42.5%

Value Picks:

SEA +2

Total Over 43

Chargers @ Ravens (-3) T: 42

Game:

Chargers Ravens Average Score 21.2 23.5 Chance of Winning 40.0% 60.0% Chance of Covering 51.5% 48.5%

Totals:

Average Total 44.7 Chance of Over 58.5% Chance of Under 41.5%

Value Picks:

Total Over 42

Eagles @ Bears (-6) T: 41

Game:

Eagles Bears Average Score 19.8 24.3 Chance of Winning 34.6% 65.4% Chance of Covering 54.6% 45.4%

Totals:

Average Total 44.1 Chance of Over 60.8% Chance of Under 39.2%

Value Picks:

Total Over 41

Eagles ML +235

Summary:

These simulations prove that all four match-ups will likely be very close and could go either way. The simulations favor the home team in all four games, but favor the away team with the the spread in 3 out of 4 games (Texans). Additionally, they only found value in one spread (SEA +2) and one straight up pick (Eagles +235). Where the simulations found the most value was in the O/U, where there was value in every game. 3 out of four simulations favored the over, while one favored the under (IND @ HOU). All told, there are 6 value picks this weekend:

IND @ HOU Under 48

SEA +2

SEA @ DAL Over 43

LAC @ BAL Over 42

PHI @ CHI Over 41

PHI ML +235