Jun 12, 2017

Last week’s historic decision by the Kurdistan Regional Government to hold a long heralded referendum on Kurdish independence from Iraq has elicited a flurry of international reactions. The vote, to be held Sept. 25, will cover disputed territories claimed by the Kurds and Baghdad alike, most notably the oil-rich province of Kirkuk.

It's always been a given that the blessings of one regional neighbor — Turkey, Iran or potential future neighbor Iraq — and that of the United States are necessary for an independent Kurdistan to be politically and economically viable. Deciphering these country’s respective responses may help shed light on where the Iraqi Kurds' bid to redraw borders stands. But reading between the lines is not always easy because often Baghdad will look to Tehran, as Washington will to Baghdad, and Ankara to all three and vice versa, as they calibrate their own positions.

As ever, the US reaction was mixed. The State Department repeated the standard line that the United States supports “a unified, stable, democratic and a federal Iraq." But it also said that it recognized the “legitimate aspirations” of the Kurdish people. Its main quibble seemed to be over the timing of the referendum, which might “distract” from the fight against the Islamic State. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi could decide, for instance, to withhold future US funds used to pay Kurdish fighters’ salaries. The other big worry is how this will affect Washington’s efforts to shore up Abadi internally ahead of critical parliamentary elections in 2018.

In private conversations, a growing number of administration officials concede that Kurdish independence from Iraq is inevitable and there is little they can do to delay the referendum. All signs suggest that Washington will likely do nothing to actively oppose Iraqi Kurdish independence, nor will it overtly encourage it, and hope that the sides will sort things out among themselves.

Unsurprisingly, the central government in Baghdad sounded far more unhappy with the KRG’s announcement. Abadi also appeared to take issue with the timing rather than with the referendum itself, a possible indication that he hopes to sustain Kurdish support for his own political calculations. Abadi said in April, “The desire of our Kurdish brothers to create a country of their own is theirs. … But holding a referendum at this time is not right as the IS war still rages, the region’s situation is not suitable and some neighboring countries believes this move poses a threat to the nation’ security themselves.”