Greater New York appears likely to avoid the worst of Hurricane Earl, churning up the East Coast. But the possibility of a major hurricane striking the area has long concerned local disaster specialists whose job it is to imagine, and prepare for, the worst.

Were a major hurricane--a Category 3 or higher--to make a direct hit, those experts envision massive destruction in New York City and Long Island ( here's a YouTube video if you're really curious).

Worse, experts say they fear that no one would take warnings seriously, even with a storm headed their way. People in the region, especially those who've been through a bad nor'easter, think they know the worst of what Mother Nature can deliver. But even a minor hurricane that lands in the wrong spot at the wrong time would bring destruction far worse than the region has ever seen.

"When people ask me what the biggest risks to New York are in a hurricane, I say 'New Yorkers,'" said Nicholas K. Coch, a professor of Coastal Geology at Queens College. "They think they're immune. They've survived terrorist attacks and blackouts, and they think hurricanes can't happen here, but they've never seen what one can do."

Long Islanders who endured Hurricane Gloria in 1985saw sustained winds of 100 miles per hour and recall widespread flooding, but they largely forget that the storm weakened before its arrival and made landfall at low tide--factors that spared the island from a severe storm surge.