Most of cycling’s biggest Grand Tour stars are in Spain for the Vuelta right now, but the cream of the sprinting crop will be in Germany on Sunday instead to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The event, which almost always comes down to a bunch sprint in Hamburg, offers the fast finishers a rare opportunity to take a one-day win at the WorldTour level, though a bit of grit will come in handy at the end of a long day: hardman Alexander Kristoff won the race in 2014 with Giacomo Nizzolo and Simon Gerrans behind him, all three of them besting even Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish in the finishing sprint.

The Route

The race starts in Kiel, Germany and heads southward to Hamburg, where the route twists and turns through the city and its suburbs en route to the finish line after 221.3 kilometers. The terrain is not particularly challenging throughout, but it does include one moderately difficult climb taken a total of three times. The Waseberg, about 800 meters long with an average gradient of about 15%, usually inspires attacks and puts a few riders into difficulty, especially during the third and final ascent of the climb with about 15km to go, but in the past the race has usually come back together before the line for a (sometimes messy) sprint on a flat straightaway.

The Contenders

It’s hard to see this race coming down to anything other than a bunch kick, but at the end of 221 kilometers of racing and a probably-hectic chase to close down any late attackers, the likely sprint for Vattenfall Cyclassics glory will be a lot more than just a test of pure top-end spend. A sprint may be all but guaranteed, but predicting the winner won’t be easy.

Cycling’s “big three” sprinting stars are all making the start. Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel are in a class of their own in the pure speed department, and all three will have a chance in this race.

Greipel comes into Hamburg on the heels an excellent Tour de France, and despite his stellar July, motivation should still be high: this is Germany’s only WorldTour race, and Greipel has been on the podium a three times in the last five years without winning. At this stage in his career, he has developed the strength to handle some climbs and some distance (as evidenced by his strong work in the Classics this year), and should come into the likely sprint finish in good shape. The big question will be the potentially hectic finale. Greipel has historically struggled in challenging position battles. If he is not afraid to take a few risks, Greipel might finally nab the Vattenfall Cyclassics win he’s been looking for for years.

Marcel Kittel at peak form is probably the fastest sprinter in the world, but Kittel has not been on the level this year. This race is also considerably more difficult than he’d prefer—of the aforementioned trio of speedsters, Kittel is probably the least versatile, and could come to the finish gassed if he gets there at all. He was in the mix in the 2014 edition of the race, but could only manage a 6th-place finish. Still, he’s hungry to pick up as many results as possible after a disappointing for half of the year, and this is a prime opportunity, so he can’t be counted out.

Mark Cavendish did not come away with as many stage wins from the Tour de France as he would have liked, but he’s still had plenty of success so far this season. He was 5th in Hamburg last year, and isn’t afraid of a hectic finale even if it isn’t his forte. He will be a top favorite for the win if he can stay well-placed coming into the finale, while Tom Boonen and Julian Alaphilippe make for impressive alternatives for EQS.

In a battle of pure speed, Alexander Kristoff is a step behind the aforementioned trio of Cav, Greipel, and Kittel, but he can’t be underestimated in his attempted title defense—the one-day races are Kristoff’s territory, and he’s a proven winner in the Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s also carrying strong form right now en route to a bid for glory at Worlds. Kristoff can beat anyone under the right conditions. There should be plenty of action on the final ascent of the Waseberg, forcing some selection and making for a stressful finale, which will suit the stoic Kristoff well.

Giacomo Nizzolo has made the podium twice in the last three editions of the race, earning runner-up honors in 2014. Hamburg is a very important goal of his; his typical season routine starts with a buildup to a peak at the Giro, and then concludes with a second run at high-level success in the late-season circuit races. The motivation is there, and Nizzolo is particularly effective in hectic finishes. He’s also quite handy after a long day on the bike. In short, the conditions are perfect for Nizzolo to succeed. Converting that into an actual victory though won’t be easy, given the startlist and Nizzolo’s propensity to come up just a hair short in the big races. He’ll need everything to go right to turn a podium performance into a win.

Arnaud Démare has not had nearly the year FDJ was expecting of him, but he did win this race in 2012 and it does suit his strengths. He’s got a shot. MTN-Qhubeka has a pair of former winners on the roster in Tyler Farrar (two times the winner of this race) and Edvald Boasson Hagen. Gerald Ciolek makes the start as well. It’s tough to say who the team will back, but Boasson Hagen has been in great form of late and will have a chance if the day is particularly hectic. Greg Van Avermaet of BMC would love that scenario: if the race is hard enough to put some of the sprinters into difficulty, he’ll have a shot in a reduced bunch kick. So will teammate Philippe Gilbert, and fellow Belgian Classics star Sep Vanmarcke of LottoNL-Jumbo. Vanmarcke is building up to a strong late-season peak again after a disappointing spring.

Sam Bennett, JJ Lobato, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Moreno Hofland, Andrea Guardini, Michael Albasini, and Niccolo Bonifazio are others with a shot at glory in Hamburg.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: André Greipel

Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Mark Cavendish

Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Marcel Kittel, Greg Van Avermaet, JJ Lobato, Sam Bennett, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s Vuelta a España stage previews—stage 2 of the Vuelta is running concurrently with the Vattenfall Cyclassics!

Photo by zoer (CC).