Just when you thought The Fed's credibility could not drop any further... it does. For the first time since the financial crisis, the market now sees a greater probability of a rate cut than a rate hike... for the next year.

As rate-hike odds collapse...

In fact, "bets" on an eventual dip into NIRP have surged to record highs, and we suspect even higher today...

[the chart shows the cumulative open interest in par calls on eurodollar futures contracts that expire in 2016 and 2017 - basically options on short-term interest rates with a strike price of zero, such that they pay out if the Fed takes rates negative]

It would appear that The Fed is going to need some new dots...