Moore's Law CPU Power Doubling Rate Slowing

Making computer circuits smaller is essential for making them faster and more powerful. But the size of conducting lines in integrated circuits has gotten so small (14 nanometer in Intel's most advanced wafer fabs) that it is getting much harder to shrink their sizes smaller. Therefore Intel says the rate at which computer power is doubling has slowed to a 2.5 year period.

This matters a great deal for the rate of economic growth. Each doubling in computer power enables more uses of computers to boost productivity in more ways. This slow down in the rate of doubling will slow the rate of productivity increases. Eventually (likely in the next 10 years) the Moore's Law doubling rate will stop. A major driving force of rising productivity which ran for decades will come to a halt. I think

Can advances in computer hardware design still make a big difference once Moore's Law runs out of steam? Possibly quantum computing will step in to boost computing power to far higher levels. I find that hard to judge. What seems more certain: complex algorithms implemented in circuits that take the place of Von Neumann architecture CPUs for an increasing list of specialized purposes.

Another technology seems more certain to become a big source of productivity increases: CRISPR for genetic editing. The fast development of customized plants and animals will likely cause revolutions in agriculture, textiles, drug development, and cell therapy development. A biotech revolution could replace the computer revolution as the next big driver of technological advance.