Dr. Hussein Tahiri | Special to Ekurd.net

The West has often underestimated the power, ability and canniness of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The regime has been able to withstand over three decades of sanctions by the West and stretch its muscles throughout the Middle East to become the great power of the region. Difficult as it may be for the West to admit, Iran has become a key regional player and must be engaged to untangle regional crises. Iran is currently playing a significant, though negative, role in the Middle East without an effective opposition; it is a key player in crises occurring in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria.

As a long-time ally of the Syrian regime that provides them with direct military and political support, Iran proved itself as a trusted ally and sent a signal to others in the region that it will not abandon them in the face of adversity; regardless of the price they may pay.

Iran’s heavy involvement in Syria has prevented the fall of the Assad regime so far. Previously on the verge of collapse, the regime has been able to resist the opposition and their foreign backers thanks to the Iranian skilful strategies, and is now gaining the upper hand. Iran has been able to outmanoeuvre its rivals in Syria through a range of strategies:

1. Iran orchestrated the handover of Kurdish territory to the People’s Protection Units, YPG, which is a military wing of the Democratic Union Party, PYD. The Syrian regime forces were unable to control large territories, so one of the first moves was to transfer the control of Kurdish populated areas to the YPG on the condition it does not allow the Free Syrian army and other opposition groups to use their territories against the regime. This enabled the regime to concentrate its forces in areas that posed existential threat.

Iran and Assad are well aware that when the opposition groups were subdued, the Kurds would be an easier target. They could either be won over with a level of autonomy, or suppressed. The Syrian regime has already asked the YPG to hand back the suburbs of Aleppo the regime transferred when the opposition groups were evacuated from the city. It is more likely that the regime will ask the YPG to hand over other territories when the opposition groups were defeated.

With Russia’s blessing, Iran and the Syrian regime have already allowed Turkey to attack the YPG forces inside Syria to weaken them and provide an opportunity for the Syrian forces to take over the Kurdish areas more easily when they decide to act.

2. It was widely reported that Iran and the Syrian regime both directly and indirectly assisted hard-line Islamist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, ISIL, and al-Nusra Front (an al-Qaeda affiliated group) to emerge as powerful groups within the opposition, enough to be considered as an alternative to the regime. They knew the West’s sensitivity towards these groups and were conscious that if it comes to choose between the Assad regime and terrorist organisations, the West would opt for Assad. When the ISIL and al-Nusra gained enough power to be seen an alternative for the regime, the West backed down and opted for the status quo. Therefore, the West refrained from direct military involvement in Syria.

3. Iran turned the crisis in Syria into a sectarian conflict. Iran presented the Syrian war as a conflict between the Sunnis and the Shi’ites. Saudi Arabia and Turkey played in the hands of Iran by leading the Sunni camp. Thus, Iran was able to mobilise the Shi’ites in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon to rush to the assistance of Assad who belongs to the Alawite sect that is considered to be a branch of Shi’ism. The Syrian regime was suffering from manpower and the Shi’ite militias from other countries greatly added to his force and so its resistance against the opposition.

4. Iran convinced Russia to enter the war on behalf of the Assad regime which changed the balance of power in favour of the Syrian regime. Since Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict, the opposition has been on the retreat. Russia has also become a counter balance to the United States and other Western countries seeking regime change in Syria. This has also granted the Syrian regime diplomatic protection in Security Council, and in international negotiations more broadly.

5. More importantly, thanks to Iran’s skilful strategies, Assad’s enemies are fighting for him. The United States that once was looking for a pretext to intervene in Syria to topple the regime is now engaged in fierce fighting, through the YPG, to defeat the ISIL. Turkey, once was considered Assad’s sworn enemy, has entered Syrian territory to clean ISIL from Syrian border towns. This has allowed Assad and his backers to focus on suppressing the opposition groups that are backed by the United States and Turkey.

6. By using Turkey’s sensitivities towards the Kurdish issue, Iran and Russia have been able to bring Turkey into their alliance. Through successfully isolating Turkey, a NATO member, from the United States and Europe, they have made Turkey more vulnerable and more exposed to Iranian and Russian pressures. Once the fiercest opponent of the Assad regime, Turkey is now accommodating it.

In addition, Iran and Russia have been able to sideline the United States and Europe by bringing Turkey into their alliance and starting a tripartite initiative to resolve the Syrian conflict without Western input. Iran was willing for this initiative to be seen as a Russian and Turkish proposal so as to secure the United Nation’s Security Council approval. But in effect, Iran was the key player in developing this peace initiative; without the consent of Iran, there could be no ceasefire or peace in Syria.

Thus, Iran’s strategies to save the Assad regime can only be described as brilliant. Those who discount the Iranian regime as clerics with no understanding of diplomacy and politics, who ignore the resilience of the regime and its diplomatic prowess should think again. Iran’s intervention in the region can only be prevented through a better understanding of its strategies and tactics.

Dr Hussein Tahiri is a commentator on Kurdish and Middle Eastern affairs, and his contributions in this sphere are regularly published in Australian and international media. He is currently an adjunct Associate Professor at the Centre for Cultural Diversity and Wellbeing at Victoria University, Australia. Dr. Tahiri is a senior contributing writer for Ekurd.net.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

Copyright © 2017 Ekurd.net. All rights reserved

Comments

Comments