Rams@Seahawks

Game Info

Kickoff: Thursday, October 3rd at 8:20 pm EST

Location: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA

Betting Odds: SEA -1.5, 49 total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX/NFL

Sleeper Spotlight: Will Dissly

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback:

Jared Goff (Start/QB1)

I’m going out on a limb and taking the under on another 68 pass attempt game for Jared Goff against the Seahawks. However, we have two very good run defenses and a tight spread, which spells shootout to me. I just hope Thursday Night Football doesn’t ruin what could be a very fun game. Goff showed last week how good this air raid could be when he threw for 517 yards and two touchdowns. Goff remains a QB1 moving forward.

Running Backs:

Todd Gurley (Start/RB2)

Malcolm Brown (Sit)

Darrell Henderson (Sit)

For the fourth consecutive week, the Buccaneers run defense shut down their opponent, this time the Rams. Todd Gurley carried the ball just five times for 16 yards but had his day saved by two touchdown runs, as well as seven receptions on 11 targets for 54 yards. Any lingering worries that we had about Malcolm Brown taking work away from Gurley should be squashed by now. Since Week 2, Gurley has handled 71% of the rushing carries and has 16 targets versus Brown’s three. Despite a tough matchup, Gurley remains an RB2 based on the workload.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:

Cooper Kupp (Start/WR1)

Robert Woods (Start/WR2)

Brandin Cooks (Start/WR2)

Gerald Everett (Sit)

Tyler Higbee (Sit)

Josh Reynolds (Sit)

Cooper Kupp now has double-digit targets in three of the Rams’ four weeks, for 46 total on the year. Kupp leads the way of the Rams trio with a 27% target share but does have the lowest aDOT (7.3) of the three. Robert Woods ranks second in both target share (22%) and aDOT (9.0), although his target share is dragged down by receiving just two targets in a Week 2 matchup against the Saints in which the Rams cruised to a 27-9 victory. Woods has a 25% target share if we remove that Week 2 game. While Brandin Cooks comes in third with an 18% target share, his 404 Air Yards leads the team. Cooks is easily the most inconsistent due to his downfield play, but he also has the highest upside/big-play ability of the three. This situation may be a little bit of a headache due to the mouths to feed, but is that the Rams have passed at the seventh-highest rate this year, there should be plenty of targets to go around. While you might be discouraged by Cooks’ 18% target share, his 31 targets put him tied for 30th most in the league. If either Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee would be out, the other tight end might be fantasy relevant, but as it is both remain desperate tight end plays for now.

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback:

Russell Wilson (Start/QB1)

The Seahawks have made it clear that they’d like to prioritize running the ball and we saw exactly what that looked like last week when they dominated the Cardinals. The Seahawks opened the second-half up 20-3 and Russell Wilson proceeded to throw the ball just eight times on their first three possessions. Once the Cardinals scored to make it a 20-10 game, Wilson threw the ball six times on the following touchdown scoring drive. The Rams have allowed the ninth fewest rushing yards on the year, so I’m expecting the Seahawks to have to lean on Wilson’s arm to keep it close.

Running Backs:

Chris Carson (Start/RB1)

Rashaad Penny (Sit)

C.J. Prosise (Sit)

This is a situation to keep our eye on, as Rashaad Penny was a participant in practice on Monday and according to HC Pete Carroll, Penny is on target to play on Thursday. If he does indeed play, I’d bump Chris Carson down to an RB2, but I still consider him startable. If we go back to Weeks 1 and 2, when Penny last played, Carson had a 65% carry share to go along with an 18% target share. That’s plenty of work to keep Carson in our lineups. Even if Penny plays, I’m leaving him on my bench for now. I want to see him healthy and getting the work before I throw him back into my lineup, especially in a tough matchup. C.J. Prosise saw his workload increase some with Penny’s absence, but with his return, Prosise will likely see his workload cut.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:

Tyler Lockett (Start/WR1)

Will Dissly (Start/TE1)

D.K. Metcalf (Sit)

Jaron Brown (Sit)

David Moore (Sit)

Tyler Lockett is the clear top option in this Seahawks passing game. He leads the team with a 24% target share and has caught an efficient 81.5% of his targets. He’s an easy start this week. Will Dissly has emerged as one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets. His 20 targets since Week 2 are tied for seventh-most among tight-ends. Dissly has had five of his targets come in the red zone, which is tied for 13th in the league. If you’re in a pinch, I could see starting D.K. Metcalf, but he’s mostly reserved to a deep league flex. Metcalf leads the Seahawks in Air Yards and has six red-zone targets, but has zero catches in the red zone. After having no targets in the first two weeks of the season, Jaron Brown has had nine targets in the last two games, good for a 12% target share. This is a situation to monitor for now.

-Rich Holman, @nextdoorFFguru