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The conventional wisdom was that if Charest ran, MacKay would not challenge his former political mentor, the man who was leader of the Progressive Conservatives when he was first elected in 1997. Such was their relationship that when he was asked if he was interested in the PC leadership in 2001, MacKay said: “If there’s one thing I’ve learned in politics, it’s ‘never say never’. Jean Charest taught me that.”

But it appears, not for the first time, that the conventional wisdom is an ass. Both men seem intent on seeking the top job.

Photo by Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press

MacKay is said to believe that Charest might be able to win an election against the Liberals but is unlikely to have enough support in the Conservative Party to win the leadership – a point reinforced by the negative reaction on social media from Conservative partisans to the news he is likely to run.

At the same time, MacKay believes another front-runner, Pierre Poilievre, has enough support in the party to win the leadership but could not win the country – a view held by other candidates like Erin O’Toole, whose team has claimed Poilievre is unpopular with suburban women.

MacKay, a former defence, foreign affairs and justice minister, believes he is the only potential candidate who can appeal to the party rank-and-file and the broader electorate. This will irk O’Toole, who is positioning himself as the candidate with real world experience who can win in the suburbs around Toronto.

It looks as if the field is about to become crowded with progressive conservative corporate lawyers from eastern Canada, which may work to Poilievre’s advantage if the party base is looking for a different type of candidate, particularly if, as seems likely, Rona Ambrose decides to pass.