Hey there, everyone! Welcome (or welcome back if you’ve been here before) to my blog! It’s a special day as I’m here to share my thoughts on the 14 new castaways — and 4 returnees — who will do battle for Survivor’s 38th season, entitled Edge of Extinction!

First off, I should introduce myself for those of you who don’t know me! I’m Austin, I’m 21, and I go to the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor where I’m finishing my last semester of undergrad (eep!) majoring in Asian Studies focusing on Japanese! I’m also involved with UMich’s very own college Survivor series, Survivor Michigan, which you can check out here! We’re airing our first season right now, and I played on our third, so I was able to put my Survivor Blogging knowledge into practice! I have to give a MASSIVE shout out to you guys if you’re reading this!

Anyways, this season is special because of its titular twist: After someone is voted out, they have one more choice to make. They can either head to Extinction Island, a desolate island with little resources, and await their chance at re-entering the game, or they officially end their Survivor journey like normal and head to Ponderosa. It’s a fascinating twist — do you press on knowing that the road will be physically and mentally tougher than normal Survivor camp life? Or, do you forego the struggle and accept your elimination? I have a feeling that most, if not all, of the eliminated castaways will find themselves on Extinction Island during the course of the season, but as to how many will stick it out to the end there, my expectations are a lot lower!

Let’s get on with why you’re here! This post, the first of the season, is a little different from the rest of my usual posts as it’s just a cast assessment and not power rankings (the latter of which I’ll get into next week!). Today, I’m basically going to be going through each of the 18 Castaways and offering my thoughts on how I think they’ll do in the game — Who will they align with? Who will they butt heads with? Will they be great strategically? Will they go far? Can and will they win? It’s fun, because I’m usually super-duper flat-out wrong. Though I’ve had some successes in the past (I’m 2 for 6 on Winner Picks as of David vs Goliath…), this is all conjecture. The especially interesting thing with Edge of Extinction is that someone voted out in the first Tribal Council could very well end up still in the game on Extinction Island closer to Day 39… so an extra factor I’m using with my Cast Assessment this season is whether I think people will tough it out on Extinction should they find themselves there, or are they more likely to tap out? My predictions are more along the lines of when they’ll be voted out, so just keep that in mind! So, without any further ado, here are my thoughts on the Castaways (in alphabetical order by Tribe)!

Let’s begin with the Manu Tribe, wearing blue!

CHRIS UNDERWOOD

25 / Greenville, SC / District Sales Manager Chris seems to be this season’s ‘surfer dude’ archetype and I definitely think he will use those kinds of qualities to get far in the game. He’ll be sociable, a physical asset, and a provider for the Tribe. If he finds himself on Extinction, I imagine that he will be pretty adept at weathering the harsher conditions. He’s a superfan of the show and the fact that he’s a manager for a door-to-door sales company is will couple together to make him skilled at persuasion. He also was a dive instructor before that, so that’s another big asset he can use. Looking at Manu, he’s going to be one of the more physical players, but he has to make sure he balances the three pillars of social, strategy, and physical. He’s going to come across probably like Joe did on his first season — the Golden Boy — so he has to be able to subvert that ASAP. Do I think he can? Yeah, I’m feeling good about Chris!

PREDICTION: Early Merge (12th-11th)

DAVID WRIGHT

44 / Sherman Oaks, CA / Television Writer

The first of our four returning players is none other than David from Survivor Millennials vs Gen X! After a very strong 4th-place performance his first time out in Fiji. I can’t wait to see how David adapts to a new set of players. He’s going to come in to this with a huge target on his back because he is known for his strategic aptitude and his endearing growth arc. He’s going to have to make the newbies thank he isn’t as big of a threat than he is — especially compared to his fellow returnees, Joe, Aubry, and Kelley. David has done a lot to prepare for this season, from practicing every puzzle ever done on Survivor, to practicing how to copy the Survivor font by hand so he can make a fake advantage! I think David is going to enter this season with way more confidence than he had on Day 1 of MvGX and hopefully the rest of Manu can feed off of that. I think that David is going to be just as lovable as he was in his first season. Do I think he’ll make it to Day 38 again? Probably not. Could he last a while on Extinction? Definitely. This makes it harder to place David… so I’m going to kind of average the two extremes out here.

PREDICTION: Early Merge (12th-11th)

KEITH SOWELL

19 / Durham, NC / Pre-Med Student Keith joins a legendary cohort of under-20 Survivor contestants… will he live up to that? I hope so! Keith is an energetic Pre-Med student at Duke — so you know he’s smart. He’s another big fan (a trend this season!) and I think that’s going to be his double-edged sword. He seems like he’s going to try to play hard, but I think that everyone will catch on to that. Another aspect to Keith that I find fascinating is his religious background — I think that will be an asset for him as we’ve seen it be for others in seasons like Redemption Island and South Pacific. In other words, I think that if Keith finds himself on Extinction, he will be able to find the strength to push forward. He can definitely play up how he’s 19 and people can take him under his wing, and wait for the time to strike. I’m really excited to see how he fares!

PREDICTION: Mid-Merge (10th-7th)

KELLEY WENTWORTH

31 / Seattle, WA / Marketing Manager QUEEN KELLEY WENTWORTH IS BACK AND YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT, BABY!!! Wentworth was my winner pick in Cambodia (the season before I started this blog) and you better believe that I’m going no-holds-barred again. So, there you have it — no long, drawn-out wait. Kelley is my winner pick, sorry to the newbies. Kelley had a fantastic two-season arc, from being Pre-merge in San Juan Del Sur to a dynamic fourth-place finish in Cambodia. We’ve seen people like that succeed before, and I see no reason why she can’t do this. She’s going to have a MASSIVE target on her back (remember her EPIC blindside of Savage, or when her Idol created the first no-vote scenario in Survivor history?), but I think that you have to look at the stats. In mixed returnee-newbie seasons, returnees usually go the distance. I think that people are going to try to use Wentworth as a shield, but she’s going to play into that and people won’t notice that her game is evolving. I think that we’ve got another third-time’s-the-charm story on our hands! I could totally be wrong and Wentworth will have a heartbreaking ending to her third time out (sound familiar? Take a look at Game Changers…), but I’m going with my gut!

PREDICTION: Final 4 (Winner Pick!)

LAUREN O’CONNELL

21 / Waco, TX / Student Lauren is another player that going into this season I’m really looking forward to seeing play. At the time of playing she had just graduated Baylor University and is originally from California, and the fact that she’s 21 is going to put her on the younger side of the cast, but I’m so excited to see how that factors in to her gameplay. I love seeing how people my age will fare on Survivor and this is no different. Lauren has a lot of strengths going into this season — she’s smart, strong, and sociable. She was a D1 athlete, so I think that she is going to give it her all in challenges. I get the vibe from Lauren that she’s going to have a lot of grit to her game, and if she ends up on Extinction she will have the resilience to press on when the going gets tough. I think people are going to underestimate her at first, but when she turns on the heat, people are going to get burned.

PREDICTION: Late Merge (6th-5th)

RICK DEVENS

33 / Macon, GA / Morning News Anchor OHHH YEAAAAAAH! I love Rick. He’s larger-than-life, a massive fan of the show, and seems like a great guy with a big heart. I think he’s going to be able to use his skills as a news anchor to enthrall people of all sorts and people are going to really love being around him if he isn’t too exuberant and doesn’t tone down his energy enough. I think that he’s going to stand out on Manu, but if he can lean into that and use his career skills as an asset, he can get people in his corner quickly and find himself in a power position. I have really high hopes for Rick — I don’t see him tapping out of Extinction unless he absolutely has to, and I think that people are going to love having him around and will make camp life and the game a lot more fun.

PREDICTION: Final 4

REEM DALY

46 / Ashburn, VA / Sales Reem is someone who I can’t really get a great read on. She’s a superfan who’s watched the show from the beginning, but she says she has a big mouth and isn’t a good liar. I’m worried that that will come back to bite her. She seems like TV gold and will tell it like it is and not care what people think. I don’t think that’s going to help her in the game, but I think that people could latch onto her to have someone to draw some heat away from them. She seems like she’s going to be able to get along with most of the people on her Tribe, and I’m really excited to see how she does — because I see her going either out early or deep.

PREDICTION: Early Pre-Merge (18th-16th)

DAN “WARDOG” DASILVA

38 / Los Angeles, CA / Law Student/Former Military Brace yourselves… Wardog is coming. Yes, this guy calls himself Wardog. Is it a bit much? Yes. Do I love it? Also yes. He’s a New Yorker who is currently in LA, and one of the big things you notice is that he looks a lot like some former Survivors also from the Northeast… namely Tony Vlachos, Domenick Abbate, and Joe Mena. They might see some Ben Driebergen (a fellow veteran) in him. People are going to see Wardog and think he is a carbon copy of them… but Wardog thinks that he’s not like them and that the ‘Dan’ and ‘Wardog’ sides will blend together. I think that he is going to have to work his tattoos off to make sure he isn’t targeted early on, and have a good set of contingencies to be able to make it deep. Do I think he’ll be successful? No. But, with Extinction in play… he can tough it out there and possibly win his way back in. Maybe I’m wrong, and he will do really well at connecting with his Tribemates, but I’m not super confident in Wardog’s game. I’m confident that he will be a blast to watch, but I don’t see him winning. Sorry dude!

PREDICTION: Late Pre-Merge (15th-13th)

WENDY DIAZ

25 / Bell, CA / Small Business Owner Wendy is awesome. The blue hair, spunky personality, and lightning-fast hyper vibe is just so endearing. I think she’s going to stand out on her Tribe and people are going to fall in love with her enthusiasm. However, they will only see the side of Wendy they want to see — she sees herself as a ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’, and I definitely think that she has that potential. She seems so funny and bubbly and I think that when the game hits its rough patches, Wendy will have the optimism and drive to motivate everyone to keep fighting as well. However… I also think that she might stand out too much, and could potentially be an easy target on Manu. I hope I’m wrong and that we see Wendy go a lot deeper in the game than I’m predicting!

PREDICTION: Early Pre-Merge (18th-16th)

That’s what I think about Manu — next, here’s Kama, wearing yellow!

AUBRY BRACCO

32 / Los Angeles, CA / Marketing Director I’m gonna be honest, I didn’t expect to see Aubry back so soon.. but I’m so happy she is. I love watching Aubry because I find her so relatable! We last saw her on Survivor Game Changers, where she placed fifth despite never really being in a great position, and her first go-around was in Kaoh Rong (the first season I covered on my blog!) in which she placed second. Could this be the season where Aubry finally wins? It’s definitely possible. Though I have Wentworth as my winner pick, I can totally see Aubry doing just as well if not better than her previous two seasons. I think where Aubry will struggle is navigating the target she’ll have developed due to her success and strategic acumen, but I think that her more subtle game the last time she was in Fiji will actually help soften that a bit. I think if Aubry plays a lot more like she did in Kaoh Rong, she do some great things. Though she could also just as easily find herself voted out early for being a giant threat, I think she will be able to stick it out on Extinction for the chance to get back in the game. We’ve seen Aubry have some clutch challenge performances in the past… so I’m pretty confident in Aubry!

PREDICTION: Late Merge (6th-5th)

AURORA MCCREARY

32 / Orlando, FL / Divorce Lawyer So… full disclosure — Aurora was going to be my winner pick… but in true Austin fashion I kind of changed at the last minute to Wentworth. But, I still am seriously rooting for Aurora and if she does win, I’ll eat my words in a few months! I love Aurora because she’s feisty, tough-as-nails, and hilarious. I see a lot of Tyson in her, and he’s one of my favorite winners. I think her career as a Divorce Lawyer will come in handy — dealing with angry people for a living will help with the different personalities she’ll encounter in the game. I’m a bit worried about her getting into arguments with people — she said that’s a weakness of hers — but, I think that she knows who she is and how she needs to act in-game to make sure that she doesn’t get on anyone’s bad side. She might be a villain, but she could definitely be a likable villain. I think she’s going to be able to handle whatever the game throws at her, and I think that if she can keep a clear head and play smart, she will go far.

PREDICTION: Final 4

ERIC HAFEMANN

34 / Livermore, CA / Firefighter Eric is someone who… I don’t have a great read on. He seems… normal. That’s something that could definitely help and hinder him. As a firefighter he has that statistic going for him (we’ve had two firefighter winners before, and plenty of high-placing firefighters!). I think that he doesn’t take himself too seriously which is going to help him, but I also think it could rub people the wrong way. He reminds me a lot of JP from Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers, a fellow firefighter who felt a lot more removed than his competition. So, I kind of think that’s the kind of character we’ll get from Eric. I like him, and I look forward to see how he does — because I really don’t know what to expect from him! I don’t see him going too far, but I could be totally wrong!

PREDICTION: Late Pre-Merge (15th-13th)

GAVIN WHITSON

23 / Erwin, TN / YMCA Program Director Gavin got married… two days before heading out to Survivor? Wow. That’s pretty cool. I’ve gotta say, I did not expect his accent! But, I think he’ll be able to lean into the country boy stereotypes and use his superfan knowledge to play hard when people least expect it. He’s super likable and I love his story. I hope that he makes it to the Loved One’s visit so he can have a mini-honeymoon with his new wife! I think he’s going to excel socially and strategically. He’s got a lot of heart and if he does find himself on Extinction, he will have so much motivation to push forward. Not sure if he’ll win, but he’s going to dig deep when it counts and kick some butt.

PREDICTION: Mid-Merge (10th-7th)

JOE ANGLIM

29 / Ogden, UT / Multimedia Artist “Third time’s the charm, baby!” Joey Amazing is back. This is the second season I’m writing about Joe on the blog, and I’m so excited. Joe is a lot of fun to watch and I think that this is the season where he will really excel. Extinction is the perfect sort of twist for him to really show his skills. A lot’s change for Joe since Cambodia. He’s now living in Utah with his girlfriend, Sierra Dawn Thomas (who we last saw in Survivor Game Changers), and is sporting a nifty stache (also approved by Sierra). I’m so excited to see how Joe does this season, because I think that he will be able to get along really well with the people on his tribe, help them win challenges, and provide for them — all the while, fine-tuning the strategic potential that he has shown to have. A lot of people in his archetype often have glimmers of strategic acumen and fail to deliver. I think that Joe can take some pages from Sierra’s book in Game Changers and make some moves that push him through to the end — and if he finds himself on Extinction, he can push through there as well. We saw him give the extent of his physical capability in Cambodia, and I expect that he will throw his all into the game again here. There is no reason why Joe won’t go far this season and I am looking forward to him hopefully doing it with some great strategy to back it up.

PREDICTION: Final 4

JULIA CARTER

24 / Bethesda, MD / Medical Assistant Julia seems a lot of fun and I’m really excited to see her play! I think that her story is really powerful — after Survivor she plans to start medical school and she has a personal connection to the show from watching with her late father, and that will help her connect with her fellow Tribemates. I think she’s going to excel at the social and strategic sides of the game — or at least she thinks that. I’m really curious to see how she does if she ends up on Extinction. She seems like she’s got the right mindset to go into the game with, so I think that no matter what Julia will be a really exciting player to watch!

PREDICTION: Mid-Merge (10th-7th)

JULIE ROSENBERG

46 / New York, NY / Etsy Shop Owner After applying for 17 years to get on the show, Julie is finally on Survivor! Julie is definitely a superfan and I’m really interested to see how she plays. She reminds me a lot of Brendan from Ghost Island… and I think she’ll probably end up in a similar spot. She seems like a lot of fun, but I can totally see her just ending up in a position where she won’t be able to connect with her Tribemates. We’ll see. If she ends up on Extinction I definitely see her sticking it out since she’s a huge fan — but I think people might underestimate just how hard it will be. I ultimately don’t have the best read on Julie, but I think that like everyone else I’m still on the fence about, she will definitely surprise me!

PREDICTION: Early Pre-Merge (18th-16th)

RON CLARK

46 / Atlanta, GA / Founder, Ron Clark Academy Buckle up everyone, I think we’re in for a real treat. Ron Clark, founder of the school that bears his name, is hilarious. I think he’s going to play hard and play fast and that will get him in trouble super quickly, and I definitely see him ending up on Extinction. I think he is going to be super endearing and so lovable, but make a boneheaded move at some point and that will see his torch snuffed. I think that if what I’m predicting is true, he can definitely go far despite being voted out. He’s going to do whatever it takes to win, and he’s going to have a lot of motivation — support from his students seems to be a big thing he’s going to use — to keep moving forward no matter how tough it gets. I may have Ron going out early, but that doesn’t mean he won’t go far thanks to Extinction!

PREDICTION: Late Pre-Merge (15th-13th)

VICTORIA BAAMONDE

23 / Bronx, NY / Waitress I LOVE Victoria. She is deceptively smart — valedictorian of her college, yet a waitress, and seems unassuming at first. She is going to be able to pull her weight, connect with her Tribemates, and strike when the iron is hot. She’s young, but she’s not going to come in with youthful naivete. I think she’s hilarious and spunky — I bet she will find some kindred spirits in Aubry and Aurora. She reminds me a lot of Michele from Kaoh Rong (my favorite winner ever!) and so I’m really pulling for Victoria to do just as well. I don’t have her in my top 4, but I can totally see her making it to the end.

PREDICTION: Mid-Merge (10th-7th)

And that’s that! My overview of my thoughts on all 18 Castaways for Survivor: Edge of Extinction! I’m PUMPED. The twist seems interesting, the buffs are GORGEOUS, and the cast seems like a lot of fun! I hope you all are just as excited as I am!

Survivor returns with its premiere episode, “It Smells Like Success on Wednesday, February 20th at 7 PM Central, 8 PM Eastern! I definitely agree, this season smells like it will be successful! (Side note: Can we please get someone to invent smell-o-vision? Think of the immersion capabilities!)

I’ll see you all next Sunday, February 24th, for my first week of Power Rankings, where I’ll assess each remaining Castaway and rank them within their Tribes based on who has the most power, and who’s most likely to get eliminated next!

Thanks so much for reading, and if you want to stay updated on the goings-on of the blog, or find out more about me personally, follow me on Twitter!

-Austin