Theresa May has promised MPs the chance to reject a no-deal Brexit and, if they do so, a chance to extend the UK’s date of departure from the EU, in a series of votes set for mid-March. But how will the votes play out?

12 March - MPs vote again on May’s deal

The prime minister has said she will bring her deal back to the House of Commons by 12 March with new assurances from the European Union about the temporary nature of the Irish border backstop.

May said the government was seeking “legal changes that are required to guarantee that the Northern Ireland backstop cannot endure indefinitely”. These could be attached to the withdrawal agreement and included in new assurances in the political declaration on the future relationship, which is not legally binding.

The attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, is to visit Brussels this week to continue negotiations.

It is still possible that Eurosceptic MPs could vote down May’s deal unless she reopens the text of the withdrawal agreement to remove the backstop entirely and replace it with alternative arrangements, something the EU has said it will not agree to.

It is also unclear whether the prime minister’s supply and confidence partners, the Democratic Unionist party, are prepared to back the changes May is seeking. If she fails to win the backing of both groups, it is likely her deal will be voted down again.

13 March - MPs vote on whether to leave without a deal

May said on Tuesday that if the government had not won a meaningful vote by 12 March it would table a motion for a vote the following day, asking MPs if they support leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March.

“The United Kingdom will only leave without a deal on 29 March if there is explicit consent in this house for that outcome,” the prime minister said.

It is unclear how the government would whip on such a motion, though dozens of cabinet ministers and ministers would be likely to resign and rebel if they were whipped to support a no-deal Brexit. If the government whips against the motion or gives a free vote, only be a small number of MPs are likely to vote in favour of no deal.

May has also committed to tabling another neutral motion on the future of the negotiations, which MPs will be able to amend, similar to the one being tabled this week.

14 March – MPs vote on whether to extend article 50

If MPs reject a no-deal Brexit, the prime minister will give them a vote on 14 March on whether the government should “seek a short, limited extension to article 50” which could then be negotiated with the EU. Should MPs vote for the extension, the government would legislate to change the exit date.

May said her pledge to hold these votes would fit the timescale laid out in Yvette Cooper’s private member’s bill aimed at preventing no deal. Some ministers had threatened to resign in order to back the Labour MP’s bill.

The prime minister said she did not want article 50 to be extended: “Our absolute focus should be on working to get a deal and leaving on 29 March.”

She also expressed concerns that an extension beyond the end of June would mean the UK taking part in the European parliament elections and that a short extension “would almost certainly have to be a one-off.”

“If we had not taken part in the European parliament elections, it would be extremely difficult to extend again, so it would create a much sharper cliff edge in a few months’ time,” she said.

Again, it is unclear how the prime minister would whip on that motion. If she whipped her cabinet and ministers in favour of extension, it would be likely to prompt resignations.

It is likely, however, that the motion extending article 50 would pass, given it would be certain to have substantial support from both the Conservatives and the opposition.

What happens if none of the votes pass?

Parliament would be in deadlock, though it is possible MPs would bring forward their own options – for a second referendum or revoking article 50 – in order to avoid the default option, which is to leave the EU with no deal on March 29.