The International Energy Agency on Friday gave its first taste of how oil markets might look in 2015, and on first reading it looks as though they should be pretty well supplied throughout the course of the year.

The agency’s confidence that non-OPEC supply can meet almost all of the projected growth in demand next year means that OPEC itself won’t need to produce, on average, any more than its current 30 million b/d ceiling.

In fact, the IEA predicts that OPEC will only need to produce an average of 29.8 million b/d in 2015 to make sure global demand is met. That is 100,000 b/d less than what the IEA sees as the “call” on OPEC for this year.

What OPEC might be expected to produce in 2015, though, is very difficult to predict.

By then, Libya may have been able to sustain its recent oil sector recovery, potentially adding 1 million b/d back to the international market.

And what of Iran? A deal with the West over its nuclear program and a lifting of sanctions against Tehran could see the return of 700,000 b/d of Iranian oil exports to add to the global mix.

On the flip-side, any disruption to Iraq’s southern oil exports — currently averaging around 2.5 million b/d — due to militant attacks would see OPEC’s production severely curtailed.

Only Saudi Arabia has the capacity to raise output to meet any shortfall left behind by Iraq.

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The IEA, meanwhile, was also quick to point out that none of its forecasts for 2015 was without risk, and that non-OPEC supply could face unexpected disruption.

“As always, political factors must be factored in,” it said, giving as an example countries where conditions are a concern, including Colombia, South Sudan and Yemen.

Colombia, it said, was a “special case.”

“We had expected growth for 2014, but the recent intensification of attacks on infrastructure in that country, as well as no sign of a near-term let-up, have made for a downward adjustment for 2014.”

Other countries could also face political problems by 2015 that are not yet on the horizon.

Outages resulting from weather, maintenance (planned and unplanned), strikes and accidents occur every year, the IEA said.

Most of the growth from outside OPEC, it said, will come from the US, Canada and Brazil.

“In 2015, North America’s contribution is forecast to be about two-thirds of the net non-OPEC supply increase,” the IEA said.

It added that some producing countries that are projected to experience declines in 2014 look set to contribute to growth in 2015, namely the UK, Vietnam, Malaysia and Norway.

The IEA made special mention of the Eagle Ford shale play in Texas, devoting a small shaded box to the continued production successes there.

“Eagle Ford is one of the most dynamic non-OPEC plays at present, with production forecast to grow by 360,000 b/d (34%) in 2014 to 1.4 million b/d,” it said.

The IEA stated that producers on the formation surpassed analysts’ expectations earlier in the year, prompting the agency to revise up its forecast for 2014 by about 50,000 b/d, based on actual data for the first five months of the year.

For 2015, production on Eagle Ford is expected to exceed 1.6 million b/d for the year as growth in new-well production slows, and the rig count stays fairly constant on the play.

1.6 million b/d is also Libya’s nominal oil production capacity, which reflects just how quickly Eagle Ford has become a dominant oil force.

There is, though, the problem of finding markets for the US shale boom production while Washington keeps in place its de facto ban on crude exports.

But as the IEA points out, at least 33% of the Eagle Ford production is actually field condensate, which — after some light processing — can actually be exported as we discovered last month.

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