New York (CNN Business) Welcome to an election-year economy with a new tension for investors: the threat of escalation with Iran.

Stocks and oil stabilized overnight, but the 2019 stock market rally has stalled until it becomes clear when and how Iran will retaliate. Bond yields are well below 2% and gold sits at nearly a 7-year high , both signaling that fear still prevails.

Wall Street analysts are gaming out scenarios ranging from a short and quick military response to cyber-attacks, harassment of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and terror attacks by proxies. (No one predicts a conventional war.)

History shows us that unexpected terrorist and military conflicts ranging from Pearl Harbor, the Cuban Missile Crisis, 9-11 and others typically cause a sharp market response, then consolidation, then recovery. Wall Street veteran Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, has charted market reaction to such shocks and finds, over time, markets tend to recover unless the shock brings a global recession.

"Chances are this decline will represent yet another reason to buy than bail," he says.

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