For the first time, new numbers are giving Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats the lead in the federal election, along with the possibility of a majority win.

The NDP has 40 per cent support of Canadians, according to a Forum Research poll published in the Toronto Star on Thursday. The poll was conducted on Sunday and Monday.

According to the Star‘s projection, the NDP has enough support to win 174 seats in the Oct. 19 election – which would be sufficient for a majority. Currently, the party has 95 seats compared to the Conservatives’ 159 seats, while the Liberals have 36 seats.

The NDP’s gains have been at the direct expense of Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party, which has tanked since last week to 23 per cent. The Liberals are in second place with 30 per cent.

The poll was conducted following the recent revelations from former Sen. Mike Duffy’s fraud trial and the recent stock market turmoil.

“Maybe you could say it’s a perfect storm for the Tories because they’re the ones who seem to have taken this on the chin,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told the Star.

Support for the NDP is strongest in Quebec at 54 per cent, but around 40 per cent in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and British Columbia.

The party also leads in vote-rich Ontario with 36 per cent support, compared to the second-place Liberals at 33 per cent. Tory support also dropped in Ontario, down to 26 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois is not expected to win any seats in the election, the Star projects. The sovereigntist party sits just ahead of the Conservatives and is in third place behind the Liberals,

The poll is considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.