Qatar announces it will leave OPEC

Fig 1: Qatar’s Minister for Energy

4/12/2018

Qatar to withdraw from OPEC in January 2019

Speaking at a news conference in the capital Doha, al-Kaabi said: “The withdrawal decision reflects Qatar’s desire to focus its efforts on plans to develop and increase its natural gas production from 77 million tonnes per year to 110 million tonnes in the coming years.”

“They say it has nothing to do with the blockade on Qatar and that they have been thinking about it for several months now,” Bellis said, referring to a diplomatic blockade on Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates ( UAE ), Egypt and Bahrain.

Since 2013, the amount of oil Qatar produced has steadily declined from about 728,000 barrels per day in 2013 to about 607,000 barrels per day in 2017, or just under two percent of OPEC’s total output.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/qatar-withdraw-opec-january-2019-181203061900372.html

Fig 2: All liquids production with EIA data

https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/

Fig 3: Crude production and exports (Jodi data)

Fig 4: Qatari oil and gas fields (main oil fields: Dukhan, Al Shaheen, Idd el Shargi)

Fig 5: Crude, condensate and NGL production

OPEC’s Statistical Bulletin

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/202.htm

Fig 6: Oil production and consumption

Fig 7: Oil and gas production in barrels oil equivalent

Fig 8: Oil and gas production forecasts for different ultimates by Jean Laherrere https://aspofrance.org/tag/jean-laherrere/

Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics

Qatar Economic Outlook 2016

https://www.mdps.gov.qa/en/knowledge1/Publications/pages/qeo.aspx

Fig 9: Qatar’s fiscal and current account breakeven oil prices

https://www.mdps.gov.qa/en/knowledge/Doc/QEO/Qatar_Economic_Outlook_2016_2018_EN.pdf

Qatar National Bank

Qatar Economic Insight September 2018

Fig 10: Qatar’s revenue and expenditure

https://www.qnb.com/cs/Satellite/QNBQatar/en_QA/InvestorReln/Publications/enEconomicInsightReports

IMF Article IV Consultation May 2018

Fig 11: Qatar’s oil and LNG revenue and government expenditure

Note how LNG related revenue has dropped after 2015.

Fig 12: Qatar’s hydrocarbon exports vs revenue

Fig 13: Capital and current expenditure vs debt

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/05/30/Qatar-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-Executive-45915

Conclusion: When oil prices are too low even wealthy countries have problems with revenues, expenditure and debt, especially after peak oil.