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Actually read this version - thoughts welcome!

From:ntanden@gmail.com To: john.podesta@gmail.com, jp66@hillaryclinton.com Date: 2016-01-13 01:44 Subject: Actually read this version - thoughts welcome!

Hillary I wanted to send you a note with some thoughts. I believe you are going to win the Democratic nomination, even if you lose Iowa and New Hampshire. But how you react to those losses, if they occur, will very much shape the outcome of the race. I was in New Hampshire a few weeks ago campaigning and the single hardest issue people raised to me was the notion that you are going to win the Democratic nomination, so there’s no problem sending a message to the system in voting for Sanders. In tonight’s NYT CBS poll, most Democrats still think you are going to be the nominee. So voting for Sanders is a ‘free’ vote to register their anger at the establishment. That of course will change if he wins Iowa. Faced with him as a real potential to be the nominee, I believe people will be scared; particularly with Trump or Cruz as the alternative. They will then look at you anew. You will optimize that moment if you respond to that loss well, with grit and grace. In every race you’ve run, people need to see in - one form or another - that you actually bleed. It is when you get knocked down or take the punch that they get their measure of you and come to your side. You never win ahead. In 2000, we were running basically even until Lazio harassed you to sign his pledge; and Democrats moved decisively in your favor. It also happened in that moment on election eve in 200: that was about you telling people that you are running for them in deeply personal terms – you take these licks because you want to make their lives better. It was also when we started winning for good in 08: in Ohio in your victory speech where you said you get knocked down but you get back up and your victory was for all those Americans who do the same. And even in this race, when Democrats saw you with poise, calm and grace bear the 11 hour Benghazi committee kangaroo court they moved decisively for you. In each of these cases you are taking some real licks. And that is why I think this moment is so important. You can make this race about them. Or you can make it about you and Bernie. I worry that the current hard contrasts with Sanders is driving a notion that you are the establishment candidate; because that is what establishment candidates do – they attack. In this way, the contrast feeds the narrative of their campaign. Just as it did 8 years ago with Obama. However, if instead of responding to the changing race with attacks you take an alternative step: you strip down your core message to an economic one where you are hearing the struggles of folks in Iowa and NH and you are going to fight like hell to make their economic lives better. And if you do lose Iowa, then you have an opportunity to say you've been knocked down, but you are getting up to fight for this nomination. Because you hear them (as you said in New Hampshire 8 years ago). You hear them and you will fight for them. We have done lots of work on trust in government. The level of anger amongst everyone is high. The key takeaway is people are so disappointed in Washington that it is radicalizing them. How you act is more important than what you promise because there have been so many promises broken. And they can see how you act. That is why the manner in which the campaign is conducted is so important. I hope this is helpful.