We've known for a while that the question of whether Donald Trump can clinch the nomination will come down to June 7, the day the last few states vote. (Even if Trump wins 100 percent of the delegates between now and then, he can't clinch.) But we didn't know 1) how many delegates Trump would have coming in or 2) how well he'd be performing at the time. A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll offers answers to both: "a lot" and "well."

The poll gives Trump a 15-point lead in the state. Even if the poorly laid plans of Ted Cruz and John Kasich had come to fruition and Kasich had vanished from the scene, Trump would still lead Cruz.

Part of the reason Trump still beats Cruz one-on-one is that Indiana Republicans think that the clumsy attempt at an alliance between Cruz and Kasich was, in short, dumb. Nearly six in 10 disapproved of the ploy, which lasted about four hours.

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With this new poll, the Real Clear Politics polling average in the state has Trump up about 4 points — but that's dragged toward Cruz by an outlier that had the senator from Texas up by 16. In seven polls conducted over the past two weeks, that's the only one to show Cruz winning.

Okay. So what does this mean for the delegate math?

Indiana is a "winner-take-most" state, meaning that whoever triumphs can expect to grab most of the delegates. Win the state, you get 30. Win any of the nine congressional districts, you get three apiece. We've seen varying results in states with similar systems. In South Carolina, Trump won by 11 points and won all seven congressional districts. Mississippi was similar. In Missouri, he won in a squeaker, taking five of eight districts. In New York, he more than doubled Kasich, the second-place finisher — but Kasich took one of the 27 districts. But that was Manhattan, literal home to much of the Republican establishment.

So let's assume Trump wins the state by 10 points and, therefore, wins all of the districts. That's a gain of 57 delegates, 100 percent of the total, well above the 56 percent or of remaining delegates that he needs clinch the nomination.

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Daniel Nichanian, delegate watcher extraordinaire, figures that Trump has 957 bound delegates at this point — people who have to vote for him on the first ballot at the convention in Cleveland. He needs 1,237 delegates to clinch and has the stated support of 34 other unbound delegates (though those people could change their minds). If Trump sweeps in Indiana, he jumps to 1,014 bound delegates — short 223.

The most recent polling in New Jersey shows Trump with a big lead, meaning we can for now assume that he'll get those 51 delegates, too. Down to 172. And if you include the unbound delegates? Down to 138. Washington, Oregon and New Mexico give out their 96 delegates proportionately, so Trump should win at least a third of those. (Probably more, since a recent poll showed him up by a lot in Oregon.)

Let's say, then, that Trump comes into California needing 100 delegates. That means that if he wins the state — polling has him up by a wide margin — he needs 87 more delegates to clinch. (This is excluding what he might win in Nebraska, West Virginia or South Dakota, mind you.) To get 87 delegates, he needs to win only 29 of the state's 53 congressional districts. And if he wins the state by 10 points, that's definitely going to happen.

Put another way: If Trump sweeps Indiana, he needs to win only about half of the remaining available delegates. Since the winner of Republican contests usually wins a higher percentage of delegates than he does percentage of the votes, that's easier than it sounds.

That narrative hinges on a few things. It hinges on Indiana going the way this new poll suggests. FiveThirtyEight's weighted average, which includes more data than just polls, suggests a closer race than this poll. So Trump may very well not sweep — or, as in nearby Iowa, he could be surprised. And if that happens, who knows what's next. Cruz could do well in winner-take-all Nebraska, next on the itinerary. The recent shift toward acceptance of Trump could recede; Trump's recent strength — perhaps partly a function of his opponents not bothering to vote in contests he was clearly going to win — could start to wobble.

But we're close to the point at which the math becomes more clear. Trump's big wins over the past two weeks combined with a big win this one makes it much easier to clinch the nomination.