NDP consolidates hold on first place

Nearing majority, with stronghold in BC

TORONTO June 23rd, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1268 Canadian voters, well more than a third will vote NDP if a federal election were held today (36%), while just more than a quarter would vote either Liberal or Conservative (28% each). This represents a slight increase for the NDP since last week (June 16 - 34%) and relative stability for the other two parties. The Green Party is reduced to very few votes (2%), as is the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or other parties (1%).





The NDP vote is common to the youngest (41%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 41%), in the prairies (40%) and, especially, in BC (54%) and among those with a degree (43%) or higher (41%),

The Liberal vote is characteristic of the wealthier ($80K to $100K - 31%), the Atlantic provinces (41%), Ontario (32%) and the best educated (31%).

The Conservative vote is higher among the oldest males (32% each), the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 32%), in the prairies (34%) and Alberta (41%), those with kids (32%) and those with some college (36%).

In Ontario, the three parties are tightly tied (Conservative - 32%, Liberal - 32%, NDP- 33%), in Quebec, the NDP has a clear lead (NDP - 36%, Liberal - 25%, Bloc - 20%, Conservative - 17%). In Alberta, while the Conservatives have a solid lead still (41%) the Liberals (27%) and the NDP (28%) are closing in for second place. In BC, the NDP dominates (NDP - 54%, Conservatives - 21%, Liberals - 20%). In Atlantic Canada, while the Liberals still lead (41%), the Conservatives are close in second place (32%), followed, distantly, by the NDP (24%).

Of note, close to 3-in-10 past Liberal voters (2011) will vote NDP this time around (29%) and this is a reversal of the pattern we have seen for the past two years, where about 3-in-10 past NDP voters would switch to the Liberals.

NDP Minority seen

If these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would take 149, 21 short of a majority, but up 20 since last week, while the Conservatives would take 116 and the Liberals would be limited to 65 seats. The Bloquistes would take 3 seats and the Green Party would keep their leader’s seat.

Conservative Party is second choice of few

One half of Liberal supporters pick the NDP as their second choice (48%), and a similar proportion of NDP voters say the Liberals are their second choice (43%). Close to one fifth of Liberals pick the Conservatives second (17%), while about one tenth of New Democrats do (10%). One quarter of Conservatives pick the Liberals second (25%), and just fewer pick the NDP (19%). Of note, the Green Party is the second choice of a significant minority of Liberals (16%) and New Democrats (23%).

In total, the NDP have a ceiling of 58% of the vote (first plus second choice), the Liberals have a ceiling of 51%, and the Conservatives, just 37%.

Leader favourables stable; Mulcair on top

Stephen Harper has the approval of 3-in-10 voters (30%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative but stable-31. Tom Mulcair continues to enjoy the approval of one half of voters (50%) and his net is a very positive +25. Justin Trudeau has the approval of about 4-in10 (38%) and his net is a neutral -3.

NDP, Conservatives tied in expectation of victory

Roughly equal proportions anticipate a Conservative (29%) or an NDP (27%) victory. Just fewer expect a Liberal victory (25%). Conservatives are more certain of their party’s victory (80%) than are Liberals (64%) or New Democrats (61%).

"The movement in the NDP’s favour is slow, but it’s gathering momentum. They’re firmly in first in Quebec and BC and at parity in Ontario, which are three of the four biggest provinces. There is very little downside to the NDP voter profile, and Mulcair is more popular than his party, while Trudeau and Harper trade at about their parties’ favourability. Even in the expectation of victory, which tends to be a lagging measure, we see the NDP have caught up to the Conservatives," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.