Premier Kathleen Wynne’s minority Liberals are clinging to support in their key Greater Toronto political fortress, a new poll suggests.

The Forum Research survey found the Grits are at 38 per cent in and around Toronto, which is home to 45 of Ontario’s 107 ridings.

By comparison, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives are at 34 per cent, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats are at 21 per cent, and Mike Schreiner’s Greens are at 6 per cent.

“This is becoming like a World War I trench warfare situation,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said of the front-running Liberals and Tories.

“These two sides have hunkered down. The Tories sort of have the Liberals surrounded, but they cannot get into Mississauga . . . or Toronto,” Bozinoff said Wednesday.

Using interactive voice response phone calls, Forum polled 1,064 GTA residents Saturday and Sunday with results considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In Peel Region, 41 per cent favoured the Liberals, 28 per cent the Tories, 20 per cent the New Democrats, and 9 per cent the Greens.

In Halton Region, the Tories were at 39 per cent, the Liberals 36 per cent, and the NDP and Greens with 12 per cent apiece.

In York Region, where a byelection will soon be held to fill the vacancy left by retired PC MPP Peter Shurman (Thornhill), the Tories have 43 per cent support, the Liberals 33 per cent, the NDP 18 per cent, and the Greens 5 per cent.

In Durham Region, the Tories were at 49 per cent, the Liberals 26 per cent, the NDP 20 per cent, and the Greens 3 per cent.

Things in the city of Toronto are a bit more challenging for the Conservatives, who recently won their first seat here since the 1999 election when Doug Holyday (Etobicoke—Lakeshore) triumphed in a byelection.

Downtown and East York, the Liberals are at 40 per cent, the NDP 33 per cent, the Tories 22 per cent, and the Greens 3 per cent.

In North York, the Liberals are at 47 per cent, the Tories 31 per cent, the NDP 16 per cent, and the Greens 6 per cent.

In Scarborough, the Liberals are at 40 per cent, the Tories 37 per cent, the NDP 18 per cent, and the Greens 2 per cent.

In Etobicoke and the former city of York, the Liberals are at 42 per cent, the Tories 32 per cent, the NDP 17 per cent, and the Greens 9 per cent.

Bozinoff also polled GTA residents on their views of the three major party leaders.

The NDP’s Horwath is the most personally popular with a 43 per cent approval, 30 per cent disapproval, and 27 per cent unsure.

By comparison, Wynne has 43 per cent approval, 43 per cent disapproval, and 15 per cent uncertain.

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The Tories’ Hudak was well behind with 25 per cent approval, 50 per cent disapproval, and 25 per cent not sure.

“It’s hard to tell from this type of polling what it is causing that,” Bozinoff said of Hudak’s consistently poor showing in personal approval polls.

“But there is something there, something about him or his message — or both — that people don’t like.”

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