Running Back By Committee

After a bye week, the RBBC Review is back! I’ve included some new features to help you figure out which running backs in the most trying committees are the ones to roll out either in Week 10 or for the rest-of-the-season. One new component is expanding the team backfield breakdowns to include the season so far. I included these to be able to show trends in player usage. I also included weekly opponents so you can get an idea about the level of defense that a player faced and whether or not that may have led to a better than typical fantasy day.

I am still keeping the central theme of looking at the involvement a player has overall in the offense – % offense. This is more important than just the number of snaps or the number of touches a back gets. This shows how much the team is actually feeding him the ball as opposed to other players. Statistically, % offense is more correlated with fantasy points scored than Snap % or # of touches by over 10%. I also include PPR Points per 100 snaps from Fantasydata.com to help show what a back could be earning if handling the same number of snaps as another back. Without further ado…The RBBC Review Week 10!

Season Long Workhorses

Rank Player Team Played SNAP% SNAP / GAME % OFF PPR Pts 1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 8 93 63.4 40% 246.4 2 Dalvin Cook MIN 9 70 46.8 36% 208.2 3 Leonard Fournette JAX 9 89 62.4 36% 156.6 4 Le’Veon Bell NYJ 8 91 57.4 35% 117.7 5 Nick Chubb CLE 8 73 49.4 34% 151.4 6 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 8 80 56 33% 149.7 7 Josh Jacobs OAK 8 57 36.8 32% 131.2 8 Chris Carson SEA 9 73 51.9 32% 140.1 9 Derrick Henry TEN 9 60 39.7 30% 137.8 10 Marlon Mack IND 8 62 44.4 30% 105.7 11 Aaron Jones GB 9 61 40.8 28% 184 12 David Montgomery CHI 8 58 37.8 26% 99.9

I decided to expand the Season Long Work Horses out to the top-12 versus just the same handful above 33%. Expanding it out allows us to see guys like David Montgomery strarting to creap up in usage (especially after his monster game this past week). Similar to how when it was just a handful of guys, all of these twelve players are top-24 RBs and all but three are top-10 in PPR points. So, yes his price just went up, but if you try now you might be able to get Montgomery before he gets an increased workload and becomes a real “workhorse”.

Arizona Cardinals

RBBC Review

Player WK OPP SNAP% Plays Utilized % Offense PPR Pts PPR Pts / 100 Kenyan Drake 9 SF 84.2 19 33% 28.2 58.8 Chase Edmonds 8 NO 61.2 11 22% 3.3 11 Chase Edmonds 7 NYG 93.8 31 48% 35 57.4 David Johnson 7 NYG 4.6 1 2% 0.2 6.7 David Johnson 6 ATL 75.4 20 29% 28.2 54.2 Chase Edmonds 6 ATL 29 7 10% 14.7 73.5 David Johnson 5 CIN 70.1 22 29% 18.6 34.4 Chase Edmonds 5 CIN 35.1 12 16% 17.6 65.2 David Johnson 4 SEA 85.7 22 35% 21.9 40.6 Chase Edmonds 4 SEA 20.6 6 10% 3.7 28.5 David Johnson 3 CAR 86.7 20 27% 18.5 28.5 Chase Edmonds 3 CAR 12 5 7% 3.5 38.9 David Johnson 2 BAL 60 8 13% 8.4 23.3 Chase Edmonds 2 BAL 40 3 5% 3.7 15.4 David Johnson 1 DET 86.5 25 28% 25.7 33.4 Chase Edmonds 1 DET 11.2 2 2% 0.5 5

Drake is new to Arizona and has shown what he can do at least for one week. David Johnson is getting healthy and “should” back in Week 10 while Chase Edmonds might be coming back in a couple of weeks. With DJ returning, he is clearly the back to own and start. Drake should still be owned but it is going to be difficult to start him. I expect Drake to fill the role that Edmonds was occupying. Edmonds was typically around 10% of the teams’ offensive plays while DJ was typically around 30-35%. As we saw in Weeks 5 & 6, Edmonds was able to be fantasy relevant with 16% and 10% of the team’s offensive plays (respectively). Drake brings the same big-play ability to the field that Edmonds did. I like Drake as a Flex play and DJ as an RB2/Flex. You may also need to hamper your expectations for this backfield given the string of difficult matchups they face throughout the rest of the fantasy season. Arizona will only face one team currently in the top-16 in terms of fantasy points allowed to runningbacks (Cleveland in week 15) Weeks 10 through 16

Los Angeles Chargers

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RBBC Review

Name WK OPP SNAP % Plays Utilized % Offense PPR Pts PPR Pts/100 Melvin Gordon 9 GB 63.4 24 34% 25.9 57.6 Austin Ekeler 9 GB 33.8 16 23% 13.3 55.4 Justin Jackson 9 GB 7 3 4% 2.4 48 Melvin Gordon 8 CHI 55.6 11 24% 11.4 45.6 Austin Ekeler 8 CHI 53.3 6 13% 10.2 42.5 Melvin Gordon 7 TEN 53.1 19 30% 8.9 26.2 Austin Ekeler 7 TEN 59.4 13 20% 25.5 67.1 Melvin Gordon 6 PIT 59.7 12 19% 7.8 21.1 Austin Ekeler 6 PIT 45.2 9 15% 5.8 20.7 Austin Ekeler 5 DEN 65.7 19 27% 22.3 48.5 Melvin Gordon 5 DEN 45.7 18 26% 7.8 24.4 Austin Ekeler 4 MIA 71.6 23 34% 29.2 60.8 Austin Ekeler 3 HOU 65.3 16 21% 15.1 30.8 Justin Jackson 3 HOU 37.3 9 12% 7 25 Austin Ekeler 2 DET 73.1 23 34% 23.3 47.6 Justin Jackson 2 DET 26.9 8 12% 7.4 41.1 Austin Ekeler 1 IND 75 19 30% 39.4 82.1 Justin Jackson 1 IND 25 9 14% 7.1 44.4

Melvin Gordon is starting to look like the top-end fantasy running back we knew him as but Austin Ekeler is still lurking and taking touches and more importantly receptions. Gordon had his best game of the year in a suprise victory over the Green Bay Packers. It kind of looks like the first few weeks back from Gordon’s hold out were the preseason warm-up games that everyone else did in August. Interestingly enough, Gordon has had a higher PPR Pts / 100 Snaps than Ekeler in three of the five games since he as been back. He has also outsnaped and had a higher % of the Offense than Ekeler in every game since Week 6. Gordon is the back to own here and should finish inside the top-24 RBs for the rest of the season if not higher. Ekeler on the otherhand is fading from the top-10 RB talk to a Flex play bolstered by receiving and big play ability. If you still have time before your trade deadline try to flip Ekeler and another piece to sure up a weaker position as you prepare for the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

RBBC Reivew

Name WK OPP SNAP % Plays Utilized % Offense PPR Pts PPR Pts/100 Devin Singletary 9 WAS 66.1 24 39% 23 56.1 Frank Gore 9 WAS 33.9 11 18% 1.5 7.1 Frank Gore 8 PHI 29 9 15% 3.4 18.9 Devin Singletary 8 PHI 67.7 9 14% 14.9 35.5 Frank Gore 7 MIA 53.6 12 21% 7.6 25.3 Devin Singletary 7 MIA 39.3 7 12% 2.6 11.8 Frank Gore 5 TEN 50.8 16 25% 8.9 27 TJ Yeldon 5 TEN 49.2 6 9% 6.8 21.2 Frank Gore 4 NE 45.8 18 22% 10.9 28.7 TJ Yeldon 4 NE 54.2 4 5% 10.8 24 Frank Gore 3 CIN 62.8 16 21% 16.9 34.5 TJ Yeldon 3 CIN 37.2 11 14% 4.9 16.9 Frank Gore 2 NYG 59.2 21 28% 16.3 36.2 Devin Singletary 2 NYG 32.9 6 8% 11.7 46.8 TJ Yeldon 2 NYG 6.6 0 0% 0 0 Frank Gore 1 NYJ 27.5 11 16% 2 10.5 Devin Singletary 1 NYJ 69.6 10 14% 14.8 30.8 TJ Yeldon 1 NYJ 2.9 0 0% 0 0

Devin Singletary is back! But Gore isn’t going anywhere at the moment. Singletary is the back to own and start in your fantasy rosters. Yes, it does feel slightly dirty getting excited about the Buffalo Bills. But Singletary is an exciting back and with an upswing in usage we may be instore for some real fireworks to finish out the season. The only thing that could hold him back is the difficult schedule he faces in the fantasy playoffs. After two cake weeks ( the Browns and then the Dolphins in weeks 10 and 11), the Bills face only one team outside the top-12 best teams against fantasy running backs, thats the Cowboys in week 13 who are the 17th best against fantasy RBs. As much as I want Singletary to be an absolute stud to finish the year, if you are in a traditional redraft league, try to trade him after Week 11. In any league where you carry players over from one year to the next, keep Singletary!

Houston Texans

RBBC Review

Name WK OPP SNAP % Plays Utilized % Offense PPR Pts PPR Pts/100 Carlos Hyde 9 JAX 55.7 19 27% 14 35.9 Duke Johnson 9 JAX 47.1 12 17% 19.1 57.9 Carlos Hyde 8 OAK 51.8 20 24% 8.3 19.3 Duke Johnson 8 OAK 44.6 8 10% 13.4 36.2 Carlos Hyde 7 IND 40 13 20% 3.5 13.5 Duke Johnson 7 IND 60 12 18% 7.6 19.5 Carlos Hyde 6 KC 60.9 27 29% 18 32.1 Duke Johnson 6 KC 37 9 10% 13.4 39.4 Carlos Hyde 5 ATL 64.4 22 30% 12 25.5 Duke Johnson 5 ATL 39.7 10 14% 7.7 26.6 Carlos Hyde 4 CAR 47.8 17 25% 10.4 31.5 Duke Johnson 4 CAR 65.2 9 13% 9.8 21.8 Carlos Hyde 3 LAC 51.7 10 17% 7.9 25.5 Duke Johnson 3 LAC 48.3 5 8% 4.4 15.2 Carlos Hyde 2 JAX 60.6 20 30% 9 22.5 Duke Johnson 2 JAX 39.4 7 11% 3.1 11.9 Duke Johnson 1 NO 62.7 14 21% 13 31 Carlos Hyde 1 NO 37.3 11 16% 9.5 38

I was surprised to realize that the Houston Texans have the fourth most rushing yards in the league. They are beating teams with fantasy studs like CMC, Zeke, etc (basically everyone but Dalvin Cook). The Texans obviously have an effective rushing attack – the only problem for fantasy is the committee approach that is being employed. Only one time since the start of the season did the two backs combine for less than a third of the Texans offense. Contrary to the correlations described above, Duke Johnson has scored more fantasy points on a lesser percentage of the offense than Carlos Hyde over the past three weeks. However, the volume for Hyde remains promising – over the last two games Hyde has almost doubled Johnson’s number of plays used. I want both of these guys to be trade targets but the brutal schedule they have to finish out the year is not appealing. If I had to chose a back, I would go after Johnson as a cheap flex option that should get enough work in the passing game to make him worth starting on occasion.

Kansas City

RBBC Review

Name WK OPP SNAP % Plays Utilized % Offense PPR Pts PPR Pts/100 Damien Williams 9 MIN 71.7 14 23% 20.8 48.4 LeSean McCoy 9 MIN 10 4 7% 1.9 31.7 Darrel Williams 9 MIN 18.3 2 3% 0.1 0.9 LeSean McCoy 8 GB 39 13 22% 8.3 36.1 Damien Williams 8 GB 42.4 7 12% 9 36 Darrel Williams 8 GB 15.3 2 3% 1 11.1 LeSean McCoy 7 DEN 42.6 14 23% 9.6 36.9 Damien Williams 7 DEN 27.9 12 20% 2.6 15.3 Darrel Williams 7 DEN 29.5 4 7% 2.6 14.4 LeSean McCoy 6 HOU 50 10 17% 6.4 22.1 Darrel Williams 6 HOU 12.1 2 3% 6.2 88.6 Damien Williams 6 HOU 37.9 2 3% 9 40.9 Damien Williams 5 IND 55.6 13 21% 6.8 19.4 LeSean McCoy 5 IND 22.2 2 3% 2.3 16.4 Darrel Williams 5 IND 22.2 0 0% 0 0 LeSean McCoy 4 DET 45.7 15 21% 16.9 52.8 Darrel Williams 4 DET 51.4 12 17% 18.6 51.7 Darrel Williams 3 BAL 54.4 14 21% 15.9 43 LeSean McCoy 3 BAL 38.2 11 16% 23 88.5 LeSean McCoy 2 OAK 40.8 14 18% 5.3 17.1 Damien Williams 2 OAK 51.3 14 18% 8.6 22.1 Damien Williams 1 JAX 66.2 19 28% 18.5 41.1 LeSean McCoy 1 JAX 29.4 11 16% 10.3 51.5

Damien Williams finally put up a top-10 RB fantasy day but what does that mean for LeSean McCoy? Probably not much. The two will be part of a consistent RBBC for the rest of the year barring any injuries. The problem is both of these guys have had their issues with injuries. Damien Williams is the guy to own simply for upside and hopefully, you were able to buy him for cheap during his early to midseason slump. I am still not a believer in the Damien Williams though! He is just the better of some very mediocre options in Kansas City – I mean was it too much to ask for them to make a trade for an RB before the deadline just so fantasy football could be more exciting. I fear that the Chiefs are worse than an RBBC they are a “hot-hand” RBBC. The major issue being that you as a fantasy owner will have to guess each week who the “hot hand” will be. This is a game I would rather not play. If you are open to the risk, Damien Williams will have an opportunity to put up some big time numbers. However, he also has the potential to get 2.6 PPR points on 12 plays where he was the focal point.

Bonus!

Cleveland Browns

RBBC Review

This is purely projecting since there are no numbers to base this assumption on but thought it would be a fun way to close out the week. Coach Freddy Kitchens has said that Hunt will have a role in the offense. The problem is that from and NFL perspective the offense has been terrible. the Browns are 2-6 and are the third-worst team in the AFC. They are bottom ten in points scored per game. The bright spot for the offense has been the running game with Nick Chubb. Chubb has over 800 yards rushing with six touchdowns and an additional 161 yards receiving on 25 receptions. But he also has 3 fumbles over his last three games. Hunt could be eased into a third-down back type of role. He has a history as an RB that can be a dual-threat running and catching the ball. I don’t see Hunt taking full control of the backfield without an injury or the fumbles from Chubb continuing. Hunt does reduce Chubb’s ceiling but it is possible that both backs can have RB2/Flex value on a weekly basis moving forward partly because the Browns also get three easy matchups against the Dolphins, Bengals, and Cardinals over the last six weeks of fantasy.

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