Relax: Donald Trump will soon be in White House. I know, I know – but whatever else you may think about Donald J Trump, he is not going to pick any fights with Russia. The threat of a second Cold War, and with it the risk of a slide into a Third World War, has receded. Indeed, it is next to impossible to envisage it.

Under a President Hillary Clinton, however, that Third World War would have been an all-too-possible – even likely – scenario. She would have continued the policy of the Obama administration in which she served. That comprised ineffectual posturing against the Russians, alternately placing sanctions on them (over Ukraine and Crimea) and then trying to negotiate and cooperate with them instead (over Syria), neither to much effect.

America’s relations with the world’s other nuclear superpower matters, and the whole world needs someone who can make them work. Trump was always much more likely to do that than Clinton, and that realisation played some role in his victory.

America doesn’t want a scrap with Russia. Clinton would have ramped up the rhetoric, laid down the ultimatums, issued the demands. Either she would have ended up in some sort of confrontation, probably fought by proxy by hapless others, or else suffered a humiliating climbdown, a re-run of the Cuban missile crisis but with a much less happy ending. There was also that outside chance of mutually assured destruction of Planet Earth. That’s now evaporated, and that’s why we can breathe a sigh of relief.

World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Show all 29 1 /29 World reaction to President Trump: In pictures World reaction to President Trump: In pictures London, England AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures London, England Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Manila, Philippines Getty Images World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Manila, Philippines Getty World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Mosul , Iraq Getty World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Manila, Philippines AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures New Delhi, India Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Karachi, Pakistan EPA World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Jakarta, Indonesia Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Lagos, Nigeria AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Kabul, Afghanistan AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Jerusalem. Israel Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Moscow, Russia Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Seoul, South Korea AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Lagos, Nigeria AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Peshawar, Pakistan EPA World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Jakarta, Indonesia Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Hyderabad, India AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Kolkata, India AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Sydney, Australia Getty World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Sydney, Australia AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Aleppo, Syria Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Mexico City, Mexico AP World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago Reuters World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Jerusalem, Israel EPA World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Baghdad, Iraq Rex World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Gaza Strip, Palestinian Territories Rex World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Tokyo, Japan Rex World reaction to President Trump: In pictures Mexico City, Mexico Getty

So, Trump the Peacemaker? Why not? Diplomacy, despite appearances, is about more than platitudes and polite cocktail parties. It is about identifying vital national interests and pursuing them. It is about doing deals.

Even Donald Trump’s worst enemy (and there is some stiff competition for that accolade) would concede that he is a deal maker. He enjoys a deal. He is none too fussy about who he deals with, either.

Which brings us to Vladimir Putin. The importance of personal political chemistry is often overstated in international affairs, but it has a role.

Plainly, there are some intriguing parallels between the President-elect of the United States and the President of the Russian Federation. Both men lead nations that are concerned about economic failure and a perceived loss of prestige. President Putin never ran on the slogan “Make Russia Great Again”, but he might as well have. Both are oddly thin-skinned and surprisingly sensitive to slights, personal and national. Both have a self-image of being tough realists.

What’s more important right now, however, is that both agree that Isis is a greater threat to both their nations than they are to each other. Trump seems content to allow Russia to pursue its own interests, in its own way, if it leaves America alone. The feeling is mutual. It might be too strong to suggest America and Russia forming some kind of strategic partnership, but it is no longer as outlandish an idea as it might have seemed even a few months ago.

Putin: Russia ready to restore US relations after Trump win

To borrow a phrase of Margaret Thatcher’s about Mikhail Gorbachev, Vladimir Putin is a man Donald Trump can do business with. Secretary Clinton wasn’t able to get along with Vladimir, personally or politically. That’s the point and that’s the difference.

Trump is no dove, but he is no warmonger either. He will smite America’s avowed enemies, especially militant Islamist terrorism, but he will not start “wars of choice”. He wants to look after America’s veterans, not create many more of them. He recognises that America is war weary.

This is not new: before 9/11 and the adventure in Iraq changed everything, George W Bush was elected on an “America First” policy, a reaction to Bill Clinton’s interventions in Kosovo, Bosnia, Somalia and the Middle East. It is, similarly, one reason why Barack Obama succeeded George W Bush, after that disastrous war of choice in Iraq yielded no discernible benefit to anyone.

There has always been a tussle between America’s conceptions of her national interests being pursued in a global role, whether protecting the world from communism or intervening in humanitarian wars, and the much older tradition of isolationism. A century ago Woodrow Wilson wanted America to guarantee the borders of Europe after the Great War, with an explicitly moralistic agenda attached. His ambitions came to nothing, but after 1945 they were fulfilled, big time. There is scarcely a plot of land on Earth where Americans haven’t died or stood guard to defend other people.

Loading....

Is the tide turning back to isolationism? A new kind of Pax Americana?

Some decades ago President Kennedy declared that his nation would “pay any price, bear any burden” to defend freedom anywhere in the world. As Donald Trump might quip: “Not true any more.” America has neither the money nor the will to play the global cop.

When Trump suggested during the campaign that America’s European allies could do more to pay for their own defence, it caused a furore. Europeans could not believe anyone would question the Atlantic alliance. It was the same resentful, spiteful sense of entitlement that has propelled Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel to lace their “congratulations” to Donald Trump with poisonous insult. They really don’t like this supposedly uncouth guy. Tough.

Donald Trump's most controversial quotes Show all 14 1 /14 Donald Trump's most controversial quotes Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Isis: "Some of the candidates, they went in and didn’t know the air conditioner didn’t work and sweated like dogs, and they didn’t know the room was too big because they didn’t have anybody there. How are they going to beat ISIS?" Getty Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On immigration: "I will build a great wall — and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me —and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words." Reuters Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Free Trade: "Free trade is terrible. Free trade can be wonderful if you have smart people. But we have stupid people." PAUL J. RICHARDS | AFP | Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Mexicans: "When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists." Getty Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On China: "I just sold an apartment for $15 million to somebody from China. Am I supposed to dislike them?... I love China. The biggest bank in the world is from China. You know where their United States headquarters is located? In this building, in Trump Tower." Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On work: "If you're interested in 'balancing' work and pleasure, stop trying to balance them. Instead make your work more pleasurable." AP Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On success: "What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate." Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On life: "Everything in life is luck." AFP Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On ambition: "You have to think anyway, so why not think big?" Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On his opponents: "Bush is totally in favour of Common Core. I don't see how he can possibly get the nomination. He's weak on immigration. He's in favour of Common Core. How the hell can you vote for this guy? You just can't do it." Reuters Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Obamacare: "You have to be hit by a tractor, literally, a tractor, to use it, because the deductibles are so high. It's virtually useless. And remember the $5 billion web site?... I have so many web sites, I have them all over the place. I hire people, they do a web site. It costs me $3." Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On Barack Obama: "Obama is going to be out playing golf. He might be on one of my courses. I would invite him. I have the best courses in the world. I have one right next to the White House." PA Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On himself: "Love him or hate him, Trump is a man who is certain about what he wants and sets out to get it, no holds barred. Women find his power almost as much of a turn-on as his money." Getty Images Donald Trump's most controversial quotes On America: "The American Dream is dead. But if I get elected president I will bring it back bigger and better and stronger than ever before and we will make America great again." GETTY

They, or more likely their successors, will have to deal with him with respect and with gratitude for all America has done to deliver and guarantee their freedom so many times. It is not unreasonable for Nato allies to be asked to pay their subs if America is asked to risk shedding its blood (again) in return. Crucially, if Europe wants Putin to keep his paws off the Baltic republics and Eastern Europe, then Europeans will have to be a bit more responsible and respectful to The Donald.

The contempt that many in Europe hold for America is as bottomless as it is unfathomable. It will not serve Europe, that is the European Union, well. It will, as an interesting side-effect, only make Trump even better disposed to the post-Brexit UK. Every cloud, eh?

Trump the Peacemaker, we must hope, will be inclined to do some unlikely deals elsewhere. In Pyongyang, for example. I doubt whether Kim Jong-un is much bothered about Trump’s “locker room talk”, attitude to personal taxation or anything else he may have done. On the “Nixon Goes to China” principle, Trump might also be intrigued by the possibility of pulling off the ultimate deal with the hermit king of North Korea.

In Tehran, in Beijing, in Havana, in Ankara, in Riyadh, in Tel Aviv, there are hard-nosed men (usually), friends and foes alike, waiting to do business with him on the right terms. Drained of any ethical content – and we will have to face up to that unpleasant fact – American foreign policy will be about the pursuit of the American national interest, which usually in fact means peace.