Victor Orban: Walking on a Tightrope Between EU and Russia

The two visits sparked a new controversy in the EU and fueled more domestic protests, with the opposition claiming that Victor Orban has chosen to abandon European values and make his stake on a “pivot to Russia” policy.

Alexander Domrin, Professor at the Higher School of Economic, Horvath Gabor, Foreign Editor, Népszabadság paper, Budapest.

What is your take on Victor Orban? Is he indicative of a new type central European leader that is trying to straddle between Brussels and Moscow?

Alexander Domrin: Indicative is probably the most important word in your question. We should consider Orban and the situation in Hungary in a broader context. We can see this growing feeling mainly in the Eastern Europe, but not only in the Eastern Europe, that those countries of Europe have surrendered too much sovereignty to the EU. There is a growing force of the so-called euroskeptics. I consider it to be really indicative.

Senator McCain called Victor Orban neo-fascist. It shows growing irritation and displeasure of the guy who is going his own way. What is the American role in that? To what extent they can interfere to make an alleged naughty boy to be an obedient student?

Andrew Korybko: First of all, I’d like to address the role of John McCain. He is in a way the American military and political establishment’s pit-bull. I mean, he growls and the dogs of war and conflict usually follow. We saw what happened in Syria, see what happens in Ukraine. And Ukraine is kind of interesting, because the real neo-fascists, if one is going to use those terms, are residing in Kiev and not in Budapest.

Yes, the US does want to construct Europe in its own image. And when things don’t work, it seeks to deconstruct using a type of hybrid warfare, in the sense of a colour revolution or the threat thereof, to try to intimidate the political leaders. We see what is happening in Budapest right now. Yes, there are some legitimate grievances against Victor Orban, but the fact that the protests that had originally been about an internet tax, for example, are now taking on a pro-liberal democracy, pro-EU radical slant, in my opinion, it shows that there is kind of a shadow of Maidan there. And I would not exclude external, at least managerial influence, at the very least, in these events.

Alexander Domrin: What I know about Senator McCain is that if he calls somebody black, it actually means that this person is white and vice versa. It is easier for the US to control the situation in Europe through the EU. If the EU starts falling apart, it would be a nightmare for some people in Washington DC. And that is why a strong national leader like Orban creates so much irritation in Washington. But in this respect America contradicts itself, because – are we serious about democracy? If the Hungarian people elected this party and this national leader in the free and fair democratic elections, why do you Mr. McCain is so unhappy about it?

What are your thoughts on Mr. Orban and the feasibility of this balancing act that he seems to be engaged in?

Horvath Gabor: First of all, he is not that popular in the country. It is true that he did win the elections last year, but he won by his own rules set by him and his party. As for the elections being free and fair…well, probably, free, yes. Fair, probably not.

Do you think that the current protest movement against Victor Orban could look like a Hungarian Maidan?

Horvath Gabor: No, not at all. There isn’t any violence and even the demands are pretty mild, compared to Maidan. What makes them similar is the driving force – a huge penetration of corruption into the high echelons of power. That could be the way to compare to the Ukrainian situation, but all the other parallels are nonsense.

What do you make out of Chancellor Merkel’s recent visit and the upcoming visit of President Putin?

Horvath Gabor: It is very interesting, to tell the truth, because Orban has been isolated for a while now and Angela Merkel’s visit was really a breakthrough for him. He handled it not too well, I should say. He did allow some contradictions to emerge, he was not too polite and the Chancellor was quite open about her criticism.

The situation is pretty interesting, because there is an understanding between the European politicians that they do not engage in bilateral talks with Putin, unless the situation in Ukraine improves. Orban breaks this agreement and there is going to be some fine balancing act again.

Let’s look at economy. Victor Orban visited Moscow last year and Moscow gave a loan on developing the atomic industry. And now, as I understand, we are expecting the singing of a new gas deal. What are the interests of Hungary in this gamble?

Horvath Gabor: Trade is very important, of course. Hungary has a trade disbalance with Russia at about $5 billion a year. This is a huge gap in the Hungarian budget, of course. We’d very much like to get a long-term deal on the import of natural gas from Russia. Hungary is also stricken by the Russian sanctions against the EU. We cannot export the usual agricultural products to Russia. So, there are a lot of things to go through with Vladimir Putin.

It is also interesting that the return of this last year’s visit by Orban to Moscow comes at a very-very sensitive moment when the EU leaders are trying to strike a deal in Ukraine. So, that is also going to be one of the very important topics. Of course, Hungary is interested in trade with Russia, but so does everybody else in the EU. So, that will be an easy point without the political impediments.

In 2010, shortly after the elections I remember Victor Orban came up with quite a controversial speech. He said: “We don’t want to be the second great Europe. We don’t want to be the second-class passengers”. Now Greece is also telling Brussels that – we don’t want to be the outskirts of Europe, we want to have a chance to develop. Don’t you think that Victor Orban triggered that debate which we now see in full swing?

Horvath Gabor: The desire to have the standard of living of the inner circles of the EU, everybody wants to live like the Germans or the Danes. Of course, it is very difficult to accomplish. The desire is there, but there is the lack of perspective. I don’t think that Orban was the first one to formulate those desires, and he is certainly not going to be the last. And it is very interesting to compare the democratic foundations of the Greek Syriza Party, which is a very democratic party, and the lack of democracy in Orban’s own party. So, there is a limit to the parallel.