Iowa Poll shows big Clinton lead, but also some worries

Hillary Clinton shouldn't worry that a string of possible controversies will hamstring her in the Iowa presidential caucuses, but many Democrats fear the disputes could hamper her in the general election, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll suggests.

At least 70 percent of likely Democratic Iowa caucusgoers say they aren't bothered by any one of three issues that Clinton opponents have pushed as controversies. The issues are her use of a private email server instead of a government account when she was secretary of state; her handling of the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, and its aftermath; and foreign governments' donations to the Clinton Foundation.

But 66 percent of the likely Democratic caucusgoers say they think at least one of the three issues could hurt Clinton in the general election if she becomes their nominee, the poll shows.

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Clinton continues to hold a commanding Iowa lead among possible Democratic candidates for president, the poll shows. A whopping 57 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say she would be their first choice for president. That's one point higher than Clinton scored in an Iowa Poll conducted in late January, which was more than two months before she formally launched her campaign.

Almost three in four (72 percent) say Clinton is their first or second choice.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has replaced fellow populist Elizabeth Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, as the leading contender to Clinton among Iowa Democrats, the poll finds. Sixteen percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say Sanders would be their first choice for president. That's up from 5 percent in the January poll.

Poll participant Mary Patrick, 76, of Des Moines leans more toward Sanders than toward Clinton, but she doesn't think he has much chance of beating her for the nomination.

"I'm not ready for Hillary," Patrick joked in an interview, riffing on one of the Clinton campaign's slogans.

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Patrick, who is a retired religion teacher at Grand View University, sees Clinton as too open to corporate influences. She wants Clinton to feel pressure from the left, and she sees Sanders as best able to provide it. Clinton "really needs someone who would be a sparring partner" to sharpen her before the general election, Patrick said.

Patrick supported Barack Obama over Clinton in the 2008 caucuses, but she expects Clinton to be the 2016 nominee, and she would support her in the general election. When asked if she saw any realistic Democratic alternative, she replied, "I don't know. Who would it be?"

Trailing Clinton and Sanders among other possible contenders are Vice President Joe Biden at 8 percent, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb at 2 percent each. If first and second choices are combined, Biden, who hasn't committed to running, ranks higher than Sanders, at 39 percent vs. 29 percent.

The poll, conducted May 25-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus of minus 4.7 percentage points for questions involving likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Sanders gains ground, is viewed favorably

Sanders' support is notable but could be fleeting, said Steve McMahon, a Washington, D.C., political strategist.

"It's not a statement of support for Bernie Sanders as much as it's a proxy for a progressive alternative" to Clinton, he said. A few months ago, many of the same liberals were pining for Warren, he said. "It could be Martin O'Malley or somebody else next month."

Warren, who was at 16 percent in the January poll, has repeatedly said she isn't running for president. The poll didn't include her name this time in a list of possible Democratic contenders.

Thirty-seven percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers in the new poll say Warren better represents their political beliefs than Clinton, up 11 percentage points from January, and 26 percent say Sanders better represents their beliefs than Clinton.

Sanders, a self-described socialist, has gained attention recently by formally announcing his candidacy and continuing his travels to Iowa, yet 41 percent of poll respondents don't know him well enough yet to rate their feelings toward him. The ratings he does get are tilted heavily to favorable, 47 percent, compared with 12 percent unfavorable. (Clinton rates 86 percent favorable, 12 percent unfavorable and 2 percent not sure.)

Kevin Geiken, a Des Moines political consultant, said Sanders can be an appealing candidate to liberals who want to see someone stand up for their ideas. "They are still holding strong on their ideology," he said. "…They're saying, 'Screw the winnability factor, we're just going after Sanders, because he says what we want a candidate to be saying.' "

Independents aren't as enamored with Clinton as other likely Democratic caucusgoers are. A minority of independents, 39 percent, pick Clinton as their first choice. But no one else among the announced and potential candidates has captured their support either. Just 20 percent of independents choose Sanders.

McMahon said the 43 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers who don't pick Clinton as their first choice probably include some people who dislike her and others who just aren't ready to see any candidate handed the nomination.

It's as if they're at a restaurant, he said. "They don't want to be told what to eat. They want to be handed a menu so they can pick what they're having for dinner."

Some Clinton backers remain open to others

Poll participant Cody Lowe, 25, of Council Bluffs said he supports Clinton because of the experience she and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, would bring to the White House. But he also wishes she had stronger challengers in the Democratic nomination race.

"I think it would be more beneficial for it to be competitive, instead of lopsided like it looks like it's going to be," said Lowe, who is a law student at Creighton University.

Lowe said he isn't bothered by the purported controversies critics have raised against Clinton, but he thinks some of them might hurt her if she becomes the Democrats' nominee. Republican-leaning media outlets will talk ceaselessly about them, including Clinton's use of a private email server when she was secretary of state, he said. "I think if they keep pitching that, some people might pick it up and run with it."

Poll participant Maria McDonald-Overturf of Cedar Rapids also supports Clinton. McDonald-Overturf, 42, who is a stay-at-home parent, said she backed Obama over Clinton in the 2008 Iowa caucuses. She is impressed with the experience Clinton has added to her resume, and she likes Clinton's focus on children's and women's issues.

However, McDonald-Overturf is willing to consider other Democratic candidates.

"I'm familiar with some of their names, but I don't know much about what they represent," she said.

McDonald-Overturf said she is a bit concerned that some of the controversies around Clinton could hurt her in the general election. The one that sticks out for her is the dispute over whether Clinton did enough to prevent the 2012 attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi and whether she was truthful about it afterward.

McDonald-Overturf's husband served in the Afghanistan war with the National Guard, and she's sensitive to questions about how the Benghazi terrorists managed to kill four Americans. Although she doesn't think Clinton did anything wrong, "it does give me some concern that there might have been some kind of cover-up," she said.

Patrick, the Des Moines poll participant, isn't personally bothered by the controversies around Clinton, but she thinks Benghazi might cause her grief among general election voters. "You throw enough mud, and some of it sticks," she said. "That's why you throw mud."

Many Republicans see Clintons as unethical

The poll offers evidence that the controversies could cause Clinton more harm in November 2016 than on Feb. 1, the scheduled date of the Iowa caucuses.

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers, 71 percent say they think the controversies around the Clintons are "just a bad rap." But among likely Republican caucusgoers, 84 percent believe the controversies show a pattern of unethical behavior by the Clintons.

McMahon, the Washington political strategist, said he doubts the purported controversies will have much effect on Clinton, because most Americans have already decided how they feel about her, one way or the other. Other, lesser-known candidates would have a harder time withstanding so much negative publicity, he said.

Geiken, the Des Moines consultant, said he's hearing the most concern among Democrats about the controversy over Clinton's use of a private email account instead of her official State Department account. That dispute could have some legs if it reinforces an image of someone who believes she's above rules that apply to other people, he said.

COMPLETE POLL RESULTS:

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 437 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state's voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.