WASHINGTON  Most pundits describe this presidential election as the first "open" race since 1952, the last time a president or a vice president wasn't a serious contender. Presidential scholar Charles Jones disagrees, claiming New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has run as a "self-declared heir apparent." Clinton is doing so, Jones says, by stressing her White House experience during her husband's eight-year presidency. Jones says Clinton is one of only four such candidates in the nation's history. Jones' analysis, described in a new paper for the Brookings Institution, helps explain why the Democrats' one-time prohibitive front-runner might not get her party's nomination. The woman who is trying to make history may have fundamentally misunderstood the moment in which she ran. By stressing her experience in her husband's White House in the 1990s and by portraying rival Barack Obama as an unprepared newcomer, Clinton invited de facto incumbency and a rehash of old fights in an era in which any whiff of status quo politics is toxic. Clinton fatigue and the anti-dynastic sentiment of two decades of Bushes and Clintons in the Oval Office have been widely debated. But the value of White House experience hasn't, and Jones says it is often overrated when Americans choose their presidents, even in times of national stress. "Mount Rushmore's faces include but one president with significant White House experience before serving," concluded Jones, a professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin. He was referring to Thomas Jefferson. The other three faces on South Dakota's famous mountain were primarily known as a general (George Washington), a roughrider governor (Teddy Roosevelt), and a country lawyer (Abraham Lincoln) before they became presidents. In Clinton's favor, two of the other three "self-declared heir apparent" candidates — those citing previous White House experience as a rationale for their election — became president. Jefferson was elected in 1800 and Richard Nixon in 1968. Walter Mondale lost in 1984. But to Clinton's detriment, Jones says, "heir apparentness is no guarantee of victory even for sitting vice presidents." Furthermore, he concludes, "Political experience alone is an uncertain predictor of the quality of presidential service. Other aspects play a significant role, to include character, vision, goals, self-confidence, communication, public regard and, above all, leadership." Studying all presidential elections, Jones identified three other "heir apparent" categories: • "Affirmation," which are presidents seeking re-election. • "Endorsement," outsiders, like William Howard Taft in 1908, backed by presidents. • "Inheritance," sitting vice presidents seeking the presidency. In Clinton's defense, leadership and experience questions have been very hard to gauge in 2008. Roughly two of three Americans say the country is going in the wrong direction and disapprove of Republican George W. Bush's job performance. Yet presumptive Republican nominee John McCain runs even with Clinton and Obama in general election mockups. In a peculiar way, negative views of Bush's leadership may be feeding this dichotomy. There are deeply consequential issues driving voters this year, but with so many Americans concluding that Bush is a failed president, the leadership characteristics of his potential successors also are elevated in voter calculations. Leadership characteristics appear to be bigger problems for Obama and Clinton than they are for McCain. A Gallup Poll taken March 24-27 found that 39% of voters think Obama is not experienced or qualified enough, and 24% did not trust Clinton. While 27% said McCain's support of the Iraq War was his biggest fault, the percentages of those questioning his trustworthiness or experience did not break double digits. Jones said historians might question why Clinton emphasized her first lady experience over "a really quite impressive record as a senator." Running as an heir apparent has opened Clinton to unprecedented questions about what Jones called a "two-headed presidency." The questions came with considerable Bill Clinton baggage. For example, Hillary Clinton has had to explain qualms she said she had about the free trade agreements passed during her husband's presidency. Once signature accomplishments of Bill Clinton's presidency, the agreements have become more unpopular in a worsening economic climate, and Clinton is now calling for a "time out" on any new ones. Guidelines: You share in the USA TODAY community, so please keep your comments smart and civil. Don't attack other readers personally, and keep your language decent. Use the "Report Abuse" button to make a difference. You share in the USA TODAY community, so please keep your comments smart and civil. Don't attack other readers personally, and keep your language decent. Use the "Report Abuse" button to make a difference. Read more