Regional polls may hold key to resolving impasse that has left Spaniards facing a third general election in just over a year

Voters in the Basque country and Galicia go to the polls on Sunday to choose their new regional governments in elections that could help bring an end to Spain’s nine-month political deadlock.

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The conservative People’s party (PP) in Galicia and the Basque Nationalist party (PNV) will be trying to hold on to office. The results in the two northern regions will also be minutely scrutinised by the main four parties in Madrid for signs of movement in Spain’s paralysed politics as the clock ticks ever more insistently towards an unprecedented third general election in just over a year.

The country has been in the hands of a caretaker government since last December’s general election, in which the PP and the acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, won the most votes but fell short of a majority. The result was replicated in a second general election in June. If no leader can find a way out of the impasse by 31 October, King Felipe will dissolve parliament and call new elections to be held at Christmas.

Efforts to break the deadlock have come to nothing, with the main political parties bickering with each other, and increasingly among themselves.



Rajoy’s party faces renewed corruption allegations while Pedro Sánchez, the leader of the socialist PSOE, is under pressure to rethink his refusal to let the PP establish a minority government. The high command of the far-left Unidos Podemos coalition is deeply torn over its future direction after failing to live up to expectations in June.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest The leader of Spain’s socialists, Pedro Sánchez, has refused to allow the conservative People’s party to form a minority government. Photograph: Andrea Comas/Reuters

The centrist Ciudadanos party is waiting to see whether it should abandon the pact it made with the PP and switch its support to the “progressive” government that Sánchez is contemplating.



Polls suggest the PP is on course to win an absolute majority in Rajoy’s home region of Galicia – a result that would strengthen his position nationally – while the PSOE and En Marea, a coalition including Podemos, are in a tight race for second place.



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A poor showing for the socialists would be very damaging for Sánchez, and a huge boost to Podemos. Antonio Barroso, an analyst at the political risk advisory firm Teneo Intelligence, said reaction in the PSOE in the event of such a result “will provide a signpost of whether there could be an internal revolt, possibly to get rid of Sánchez and change the party’s position ahead of the 31 October deadline.”

The socialist leader’s mooted plans to form a minority government backed by Ciudadanos and Unidos Podemos seem designed to show that he has done everything in his power to stave off a third election, Barroso said. A weakening Podemos could help Sánchez. “This seems to be his preferred option, especially considering that Podemos is currently undergoing an internal crisis that could potentially hurt them electorally and benefit the PSOE.”

Any last-minute U-turn on allowing Rajoy to govern would fatally wound Sánchez and help Unidos Podemos in its flagging bid to become the pre-eminent party of the Spanish left.



“The results of the June election show that Podemos’s pull has weakened significantly and subsequent polls have generally pointed to a slow erosion of its support base,” said Pau Marí-Klose, a professor of sociology at the University of Zaragoza. A strong showing in Galicia and the Basque country, however, could “re-energise the project”, he added.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest The leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, whose party has been struggling in the polls. Photograph: Kiko Huesca/EPA

Polls in the Basque country predict the moderate Basque Nationalist party (PNV) will win the most votes, picking up 27 or 28 seats but failing to secure the 38 needed for a clear majority in the 75-seat regional parliament. The leftwing separatist EH Bildu party is forecast to win 16 seats, Podemos 15 or 16, and the PSOE and PP eight each.



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Unlike in Madrid, where an absolute majority is needed for a national government, a simple majority would suffice to put the PNV back in office under the Basque system. The electoral arithmetic raises the prospect of a deal between the PNV and the PP that would bring Rajoy within one seat of an absolute majority in the national congress.



Pablo Simón, a political science professor at Madrid’s Carlos III University, said the PNV could yet backtrack on its refusal to help the acting prime minister.



“If Rajoy offers the PNV a lot of things when it comes to decentralisation and territorial reforms, it could give him its five seats, meaning that he’d get to 175,” he said.



With the PP so tantalisingly close to a majority, the PSOE would have little choice but to let one of its deputies abstain to let Rajoy form a government.



Despite the prospect of an end to the impasse, however, neither politicians not pundits are taking anything for granted on Sunday night. As things stand, Spain is fast heading towards another record-breaking visit to the polls.



“Everything has to be sorted out in October,” said Simón. “If we don’t have a government by 31 October, we’ll have a third election.”





