In Europe, over the Aegean and in the Asia-Pacific region, interceptions are ‘almost routine’ but the sheer volume of incidents risks escalation

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

World powers are reporting surges in airspace violations and instances where aircraft are scrambled to intercept foreign jets, amid a sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia.

Nato member aircraft were forced to conduct more than 500 scrambles over Europe in 2014 – a fourfold increase on the previous year. Nearly 85% of these were to intercept Russian aircraft. This year, there have already been more than 300 scrambles, according to data provided by Nato to the Guardian. These are some of the highest numbers since the end of the cold war.

Russia alleges that Nato sorties near its borders doubled last year. Nato called the claim “deliberately vague”.

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Elsewhere, Japan has been scrambling aircraft in record numbers because of Chinese activity. Airspace violations by Turkish aircraft over Greek waters increased three and a half times last year compared with the previous two years.

Although nearly all of these interventions are described by those close to operations as “almost routine”, several incidents reveal there is a risk of escalation because of the sheer volume of incidents.

Despite the increase in interceptions, Nato will be halving the number of aircraft used in its Baltic air-policing mission later this year.

Russia v Nato

A scramble doesn’t imply a breach of sovereign airspace or military aviation rules. In fact, in most cases, there is no breach. Last year, there were 10 incursions by Russian aircraft into airspace belonging to Nato members. Eight of these were over islands belonging to Estonia (six over remote Vaindloo alone). The others were into Norwegian and Polish airspace in March and April respectively, and both lasted seconds.



There have been no incursions recorded by Nato’s 28 members in 2015. A Russian aircraft did, though, briefly enter airspace belonging to Finland, which is not a Nato member, on 26 June. While Swedish armed forces have counted nine incursions into Sweden’s sovereign airspace so far this year. The country’s airspace was breached 12 times last year. Nearly all these incursions into Swedish airspace, however, were not by Russian aircraft.

A Nato official explained to the Guardian that it was difficult to understand what motivated Russia and to know for certain if these events were provocations or could be explained by other factors such as weather.

What is clear is there has been an increase in Russian activity. In comparison with current levels of activity, there were, for example, only seven Russian incursions into Estonian airspace between 2006 and 2013.

Russian activity has included several more provocative – albeit isolated – incidents. These have included aircraft flying several times over military ships and bombers taking unconventional paths in proximity to US, Portuguese and British airspace.

But, according to Russia, this is all driven by an increase in the activities of “Nato countries and their partners” encroaching on its airspace.

A Russian government official told the Guardian that Russian air force flights, consisting mostly of training sorties in international airspace, needed to be seen within the context of “a drastic increase in the activity of foreign reconnaissance and combat planes near Russian borders”.

According to data collected by Russian authorities, and shared with the Guardian, Nato carried out more than 3,000 tactical aviation sorties near Russian borders in 2014, more than double the previous year. Nato patrols over Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia increased 3.5 times.

However, according to Lieutenant-Colonel Jay Janzen, chief of media operations at Nato’s Supreme HQ Allied Powers Europe, Russia is regularly using disinformation and propaganda to confuse the public regarding current events.

“Scrambles are launched in response to Russian activity. The sole aim is to preserve the integrity of Nato European airspace and to safeguard Nato nations from air attacks.”

He acknowledged that Nato had increased the numbers of surveillance flights in recent months, but insisted they remained “hundreds of kilometres from Russia’s borders”.



Despite the increased interactions with Russian aircrafts, Nato will be scaling back the number of the Baltic patrolling mission’s aircraft to about eight this autumn, from 16. Before events in Ukraine, the patrolling mission consisted of four aircraft. Janzen said the reduction was appropriate to the scale of the task.

There are mitigating factors at play in the surge in airspace incursions. National aviation boundaries are tight in eastern Europe, and the Ukraine conflict has heightened political sensitivities, with some capitals occasionally keen to exaggerate the risk.

The single biggest reason for the huge number of scrambles is the fact that Russian aircraft often do not abide by international conventions, western officials say.

Russian military aircraft often keep their transponders switched off and, as a result, don’t “squawk”, leaving air traffic controllers in the dark. They also do not share their flight plans.

In an analysis by the European Leadership Network (ELN) of 66 incidents, one of the three “high-risk” incidents recorded between March 2014 and March 2015 involved a near-collision between a Scandinavian Airlines 737 with 132 passengers taking off from Copenhagen and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft. This was due to the latter not broadcasting its position.

The Russian government said: “Russian pilots are training under strict orders to follow the requirements of international and national laws and rules. The flights take place over uninhabited areas, mostly open seas, without violating the state borders. Russian aircraft are constantly shadowed by Nato fighters. Russia respects all international and national restrictions imposed on such activities, and will do so in the future.”

China v Japan

Russia doesn’t only dice with European airspace. Last year, Japan initiated 943 scrambles – one incident short of the highest figure on record (in 1984). Pracically all involved Russian (473) and Chinese (464) warplanes.

In 2000, Japan was involved in only 155 interceptions. Most of the increased activity has coincided with a significant rise in China’s military spending (from less than 50bn yuan in 1990 to 850bn yuan last year), increased capabilities, and in more recent years, intensified presence and activity on land, in waters and in the airspace near Japan on the back of an ongoing dispute over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.

Of the 173 interceptions in the first three months of 2015, 57 were of Russian aircrafts compared to 114 incidents involving Chinese aircrafts.

One characteristic of China’s behaviour, according to several western aviation experts, is that its aircrafts are more “aggressive” than Russia’s.

Turkey v Greece

Half a world away from the East China Sea, another disputed area has seen an increase in airspace violations.

In 2014, Greece’s military authorities recorded 2,244 violations of Greek airspace by Turkish aircraft, three and a half times more incursions than in 2013.

This year, 1,204 violations have already been tracked by the Hellenic national defence general staff.

The vast majority of interceptions have taken place over a strip of the Aegean sea, an area disputed since the 1970s. Greece and Turkey contest the extent of Greek airspace around the islands, Athens claiming 10 miles while Ankara only recognises six.

A spike in tensions between Greece and Turkey over the Aegean dispute is not unprecedented. In 2006, a mid-air collision between Greek and Turkish fighter planes risked a crisis. A Greek pilot died in the accident. While in 1987 and in 1996, the two countries almost went to war.

A Nato official told the Guardian that the Aegean dispute was a matter for Greece and Turkey.

There has also been an increase in the number of interceptions in North America.

North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) has intercepted and visually identified Russian long-range aviation about 25 times over the past five years, or on average about five times per year. That number doubled to about 10 in 2014, with particular spikes in July and early August, which Norad believes is related to training.

A Norad official said it was important to note that, in all these instances, Russian aircraft remained in international airspace at all times.

In the two separate incidents recorded in July this year – around the south coast of Alaska, near the Aleutian islands, and off the central California coast – at no time did the Russian bombers involved enter North American sovereign airspace.

*All figures for aircraft interceptions in this piece are approximations because of security reasons





• This article was amended on 2 September 2015 to clarify that most of the incursions into Swedish airspace in 2014-15 were not by Russian aircraft.