Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead over Donald Trump in a recent poll in Wisconsin. | Getty Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 9 points in Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely voters in Wisconsin, an advantage driven by increasingly enthusiastic Democrats and depressed Republicans, according to a new poll out Wednesday.

The Marquette Law School poll, considered the gold standard in Wisconsin, shows Clinton leading Trump among likely voters, 46 percent to 37 percent.

But the poll shows an interesting divergence: Clinton’s lead is larger among likely voters than among all registered voters. Clinton has a smaller 5-point advantage among registered voters, the poll shows, 42 percent to 35 percent.

In the previous Marquette poll, back in March, Clinton led Trump by 10 points among registered voters, 47 percent to 37 percent.

The same phenomenon is apparent in the closely watched Senate race. Former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold leads GOP Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters, 51 percent to 42 percent. But Feingold’s lead is smaller among all registered voters: 45 percent to 41 percent.

Polls that survey registered voters but also screen for likely voters typically show the Republican candidate doing better among those most likely to vote. But only 78 percent of Republican respondents said they were certain to vote in the new Marquette poll, compared to 84 percent of Democrats. That’s a reversal from June 2012, when 90 percent of GOP voters described themselves as certain to vote in the fall, compared to only 80 percent of Democrats.

Marquette pollster Charles Franklin warns that the likely-voter results could change moving forward. “The decision to vote doesn’t really firm up until the late summer and the early-fall campaign,” said Franklin. “At that point, the likely-voter number is a little more stable, a little more reliable.”

The poll, like others, shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders leading Trump by much wider margins than Clinton. Among those Sanders voters, two-thirds back Clinton, with just 4 percent choosing Trump. Nearly a quarter, however, say they will vote for neither candidate.

The poll was conducted June 9-12, surveying 800 registered voters and 666 likely voters. The margin of error, including both sampling error and design effect, is plus or minus 4.4 percent for registered voters and 4.9 percentage points for likely voters. The survey included one day of interviews conducted following this weekend’s shootings in Orlando, Fla.; the results on Sunday weren’t statistically different from responses earlier in the survey.