John Kasich looks to launch White House bid July 21

Ohio Gov. John Kasich plans to launch his presidential bid on July 21 in Columbus, hoping his strength in the quintessential swing state will help him win over Republican voters who aim to take back the White House in 2016.

Kasich will share his presidential intentions at his alma mater, Ohio State University, said Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the governor's 2016 effort. Meanwhile, the governor is pushing to meet a fundraising goal of $15 million by June 30, according to two people briefed on the matter, who requested anonymity because the financial figures are not yet public.

The idea of Kasich's candidacy has excited some voters and intrigued national reporters, who praise his candor and pragmatism. He's making regular trips to early-primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina, and he first visited Iowa last week. But he has been held back by the "will he or won't he" speculation that has surrounded his late exploration of a 2016 bid. On his first trip to Iowa last week, a Republican voter asked him: "If you're not a candidate, what are you, and what do you need from us?"

A July 21 kickoff would erase all doubts. Still, it would likely make Kasich the last politician to join a GOP field that already has more than a dozen official candidates. Kickoffs expected this week from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and the week of July 13 from Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker will take that number even higher.

Kasich insists a path exists for him to win the nomination if he runs. Such a path surely relies on a lackluster performance by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, along with a Kasich win in New Hampshire, where the campaign's living-room meetings remind the governor of his nine successful campaigns for Congress.

"The doubters are not experts," Kasich said last week.

"Are the believers experts?" an Enquirer reporter asked him.

"Uh, yeah, pretty much," he said.

After July 21, Kasich would have about two weeks to boost his polling numbers ahead of the GOP's first presidential debate in Cleveland on Aug. 6. Kasich's advisers hope the governor's no-nonsense style and pointed refusal to criticize Democrat Hillary Clinton will help him stand out from other, better-funded GOP candidates in a debate. Having him on the stage in his home state is essential to showing his credibility as a candidate, they argue.

But rules for the debate limit the field to the top 10 GOP candidates in an average of recent national polls. Kasich would currently miss that cut. He draws 1 to 2 percent in national polls. His showing is essentially just as poor in New Hampshire, the site of the nation's first primary election, whose pragmatic voters Kasich believes he has a chance of winning over.

"People say I have low poll numbers, and you know, I do, and I'll tell you why: because I came into this office to take care of our beloved Ohio," Kasich said Sunday on CBS' "Face the Nation." "Now I can go out and tell my story, and hopefully the polls will rise."

Kasich's polling in his home state validates one of his main campaign points. He continues to poll ahead of likely Democratic nominee Clinton, 47 to 40 percent in a matchup in this month's Quinnipiac University poll. His job approval rating in the purple state is 60 percent. He won his re-election bid in November overwhelmingly, although against a weak Democratic candidate.

"With Ohio being such a critically important state -- no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying it -- that gives Gov. Kasich a key talking point about why he should be the nominee," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.

Ahead of the launch, the governor is preparing to shoot commercials this week with Fred Davis. He's the advertising mind behind the successful branding of Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder as "One Tough Nerd" and the nixed idea to tie President Barack Obama to his controversial former pastor.

New Day for America, the contribution-limit-free nonprofit that is fundraising in support of his bid, will bankroll the commercials, storing up footage while the governor is still allowed to coordinate with the group.

Then there's the money. Kasich has devoted days' worth of travel and phone calls to drumming up financial support from donors in locales such as New York, Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta. The nonprofit has been raising money since April, aiming to collect $15 million by June 30. (Still, compare that with Bush's reported goal to raise $100 million by the same date. Recent reports indicate Bush may fall short of that sum.)

Next steps for Kasich

1. This week, Kasich will start soliciting donations of no more than $2,700 per person for his exploratory committee.

2. He must stop coordinating with his nonprofit once he says he's a candidate, or once he launches his official campaign committee -- whichever happens first.

3. He must register his campaign committee within 15 days of its launch. Exploratory donations will count as official campaign donations at that time.