Bad news should wake up Obama, experts say

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., right and Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., left and Pastor Rick Warren, greet parishioners during a non-debate forum moderated by Warren at the Saddleback Church in Lake Forest, Calif. on Saturday Aug. 16, 2008. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel) less Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., right and Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., left and Pastor Rick Warren, greet parishioners during a non-debate forum ... more Photo: Richard Vogel, AP Photo: Richard Vogel, AP Image 1 of / 3 Caption Close Bad news should wake up Obama, experts say 1 / 3 Back to Gallery

It's not panic time - yet - but some Democrats watching Barack Obama say his campaign should have gotten a wake-up call this week, not only from his appearance with John McCain at the Saddleback Church but from a major poll suggesting he no longer leads his GOP opponent.

At the Saddleback forum with Pastor Rick Warren on Saturday in Orange County, the Republican presidential candidate delivered on-the-money messages and answers so effective they were "scary to me," said George Lakoff, a renowned author and UC Berkeley linguistics professor who has studied how the human brain absorbs and processes messages.

Lakoff, whose work has helped shaped numerous Democratic candidates' campaigns, said that "right through the motivational campaign theme, they were doing everything right."

By contrast, Obama was "overconfident ... and certainly not prepared" before the evangelical audience with definitive answers to clearly explain to voters his world view, values and vision, Lakoff said.

Lakoff isn't alone in his assessment that Obama needs to step up his game, hone his message and sharpen his contrasts with McCain as he heads into the final sprint after next week's Democratic National Convention in Denver.

A national poll released Wednesday by Reuters/Zogby showed McCain beating Obama 46 to 41 percent, an advantage that also shows that voters now see McCain as stronger on economic issues. The latest poll erased the strong seven-point advantage held by the Democrat just last month. Other polls had the race statistically tied.

Moreover, some recent polls indicate that some red states that Democrats had hoped they could flip to blue - like Indiana and Virginia - are tacking back slightly to McCain.

The latest polls show that even with gas prices rising precipitously under a Republican administration, the candidates are unusually close on whom Americans trust to deal with the issue.

Sharper message needed

Some Democrats - Lakoff included - say it's clear Obama needs to sharpen his message and get tougher on beating back attacks from McCain's campaign, which has suggested that Obama is elitist and even unpatriotic.

"John McCain is jujitsuing Obama's strengths," said one leading California-based Democratic strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of his work with a nationally known party figure.

The strategist said many Democrats witnessed their candidate's performance at the Saddleback forum with "a feeling of vague nausea" because "the stature gap (between Obama and McCain) widened dramatically in the mind of any viewer who watched."

Lakoff, a progressive academic often cited for his views on the importance of "framing the debate" in politics, said the discussion at the Lake Forest evangelical church provided an unusually clear window into the two candidates' strengths, including how effective they are heading into upcoming debates and the final sprint of the presidential race.

Two examples from Saddleback that Lakoff and others said underscore Obama's troubles:

-- McCain - asked his reason for running for president - confidently outlined a strong message of "country first," urging service to America. That idea, dominant in McCain's message and the theme of the GOP convention, showed that McCain Republicans have "figured out the formula" of effective campaign communication - and brilliantly melded ideas touted by both Presidents Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy.

-- Obama, in contrast, delivered a far more nuanced plea for empathy and building bridges across party lines instead of a more direct answer - telling voters what those values would mean specifically "to your children, your future, your environment," said Lakoff.

With just days until the Democrats head into their convention, the tough assessment by Lakoff, author of "The Political Mind: Why You Can't Understand 21st-Century American Politics with an 18th-Century Brain," might spark some panic among Democrats.

Even some Republicans agree that the forum should be a dose of very tough medicine for Obama.

"The nature of the campaign is changing less than a week before the convention starts," said Sacramento-based GOP strategist Patrick Dorinson, who also saw the Saddleback forum as a seminal moment. "Obama felt he was sitting with Dr. Phil, and he was trying not to offend anybody. McCain seemed to understand he was running for president ... his answers were more direct and aimed at the electorate."

"The primaries are preseason; you can make mistakes. But now we're into the first game that really counts," Dorinson said. "Obama's folks are reading their own press clippings too much - and they've got to understand they're in a dogfight."

Time to revamp

Barbara O'Connor, professor of political communication at Sacramento State University, agrees with Lakoff that "Obama's message of change needs to be revamped."

"Change toward what end?" she asks. "The party is very bad at labeling things that provide an umbrella for other positive memories. Democrats tend to mush around and don't give people slogans like 'Morning in America,' " which Reagan used to evoke a feeling of hope and promise in the country.

But she takes issue with some of Lakoff's tougher assessments of Obama's performance at Saddleback, a forum before evangelical voters that from the start constituted a challenge for Obama.

"When you talk about religion and faith-based values, you have to be nuanced. ... I thought he was really earnest, trying to explain who he was to an audience that largely disagreed with him. These weren't his guys."