The U.S. crude-oil benchmark resumed its slide Tuesday — dragging Canada’s currency down with it.

And it could weaken further on Wednesday, when many market strategists believe the Bank of Canada will cut its overnight rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.25%.

The U.S. dollar USDCAD, +0.21% rose to C$1.4576 Tuesday, its highest level against its Canadian rival since early 2003. So far this year, the dollar has risen by 5.2% against its Canadian rival — distinguishing the loonie as one of the worst-performing resource currencies of the past few months.

The loonie’s recent underperformance is largely due to a march of disappointing data about the Canadian economy — including troubling readings on employment growth, consumer prices and manufacturing sales. This weakness suggests that Canada’s economic growth in the fourth quarter undershot the BOC’s latest projections, released at its October policy meeting.

“They’ve maintained a fairly upbeat, optimistic outlook on the economy, and it’s difficult to see how that optimism is being sustained in the face of obvious weakness in the domestic side of the economy,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.

Though the BOC did cut the overnight rate twice last year, the rosy projections and cautious optimism expressed by Canada’s central bank suggest it has underestimated the threat posed by persistently weak oil prices. Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. might take the opportunity to show that they’ve had a change of heart.

The international benchmark for oil, Brent crude UK:LCOG6, has fallen more than 22% so far this year, while West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, CLG26, was down 20% over the same period.