MEXICO CITY—More than 47,500 people have been killed in Mexico since President Felipe Calderon started his military-led offensive against the drug cartels in 2006, according to new data released Wednesday by the country’s attorney general.

The latest figures show that 12,903 people have been killed as a result of the country’s drug war between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 2011 — a 10 per cent increase from the same period in the previous year.

The report showed Mexico’s northern border region to be the most violent, with Ciudad Juárez again the most violent city. But municipalities further south, such as Acapulco and Veracruz, also rank in the top 10, while states such as Quintana Roo — home of Cancun — remain on par with Canadian crime rates.

Rumours had been circulating recently that the government would no longer publish this kind of data, due to the widespread unpopularity of the ongoing military strategy. But the death toll actually exceeded the projections of newspapers such as Reforma, whose ominous “execution meter” counted 12,359 deaths in 2011.

If government estimates stay at similar rates in the final three months of 2011, the official count would exceed 17,000 — the deadliest year yet for Mexico.

The numbers didn’t surprise Mexico City-based security specialist Walter McKay, a former Canadian police officer who now maps drug war deaths across Mexico. But he cautions that the murky nature of Mexico’s drug war makes it difficult to track numbers with real accuracy.

“In one sense they give us an idea of what’s happening, so we can say, ‘Yes, there’s been more murders last year than this year,’” McKay said. “But are all of those guys narcos? Were they all executions?”

Calderón has been fending off more questions of this nature as the civilian death toll has risen. Collaboration between certain police forces and cartels, the inability of police to solve cases, and widespread accusations of torture, killings and disappearances by the army have all weakened public trust in the Mexican government.

“In Canada, we have able investigators and police who solve, especially in homicides, up to 90 per cent,” McKay said. “In Mexico, they only solve 1 per cent.”

Numbers are not the only factor influencing public opinion. As the attorney general’s report came out, so did news that two severed heads had been found in an upscale area of Mexico City, one of the least affected parts of Mexico. Torture, beheadings and massacres have become startling realities in certain regions of the country, and a major source of fear for many civilians.

As candidates start campaigning for July 1 elections, drug war policy will play a central role. José Antonio Crespo, a politics professor at Mexico’s Centre for Research and Teaching in Economics, believes Calderón’s inability to reduce the violence will keep voters away from his National Action Party (PAN). The traditionally powerful Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has been leading in the polls.

“The majority of people are reacting with the idea that the PAN can’t control the situation, which is why the PRI has so much force right now,” Crespo said. “The people want someone who can control this type of problem, who knows the country and its instruments of political control.”

Changing the course of this war on drugs, and of Mexico’s bloodied international image, will be a top priority for the next president. Though millions of Canadians continue to head to Mexico, the recent deaths of British Columbia residents Ximena Osegueda and Robin Wood have sparked debate over how safe it is.

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Despite the high numbers, McKay says tourist centres such as Puerto Vallarta, Los Cabos and Cancun remain relatively safe, as long as travellers take precautions.

“If you are a tourist and you want to see Mexico, just do the tourist thing — go to the hotel, drink at the bar, swim in their ocean, and then go home.”

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