Full health seems to be a dream that will never materialize for the Duke Blue Devils. Amile Jefferson will be sidelined thanks to a bone bruise in the same foot that forced him to miss most of last season. On the bright side, Chase Jeter may return to the rotation after missing the last two games thanks to a back issue. Duke will need every man ready as they travel to Tallahassee to take on #9 Florida State.

The Seminoles have been a surprise team this year, climbing all the way from unranked to the top 10 thanks to stellar play from the wings. Dwayne Bacon has sizzled in his sophomore year averaging 18 points per game in only 27 minutes a night. He's flanked by star freshman Jonathan Isaac, a former 5-star recruit, and Xavier Rathan-Mayes, the leading assist man.

Keys to the Game

Control The Tempo - Florida State loves to push the ball up court because of their advantage in athleticism on the wings. The Seminoles have the 14th fastest offense in the country and tend to take more transition shots than their opponents. The reason this is so crucial to the game is because Duke's achilles heel is their transition defense. Duke ranks 297th in effective field goal percentage defense against transition offenses. If Duke can't get back against Florida State's offense, it could be a very long night of layups for the Blue Devil defense. In fact, if you look at eFG% transition offense rankings, Duke's two losses came to the #1 offense (Kansas) and #20 offense (Virginia Tech). Florida State ranks 35th.

Rebounding - Florida State is the 2nd biggest team in the country, yet, they've been considerably weak on the glass. While they clean up second chances well enough, their defensive rebounding leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 208th in the country. Duke needs to take advantage of this by having Giles and Bolden consistently crash for putbacks and second chances. They'll need every possession they can get against Florida State.

Fouls to Give - This would be a bold strategy but Florida State is a weak free throw shooting team and Duke DOES have some depth they could use to foul the Seminoles on fast breaks and make them earn it at the line. Using White, Vrankovic, and Jeter as 15 extra fouls could mitigate the risk on Giles and Bolden, while protecting their transition defense weakness a little. Specifically, fouling Rathan-Mayes in transition would help because the electric guard only shoots 62% from the line. As a team, FSU is 146th in the country at 71% from the charity stripe.

Prediction

Duke 81

FSU 85

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