A well-sourced article in the leading German news magazine Der Spiegel reports that Jean-Claude Juncker is set to make a major intervention in the referendum next week. They say Cameron made an extraordinary deal with Juncker whereby the Commission would keep quiet during the campaign, on the condition that he could intervene in the last few days if the polls had Brexit ahead:

“Juncker had to promise British Prime Minister David Cameron that the EU executive branch would stay out of the Brexit debate… Juncker only managed to convince Cameron to give him a small loophole: If Brexit supporters have a clear lead in polls in the week prior to the June 23 referendum, the Commission president will be allowed to make his voice heard. That, of course, would be too late to significantly shift public opinion, but it would mean that Juncker could not be accused of having done nothing to prevent a Brexit. Under no circumstances does Juncker want to go down in history as the first Commission president to preside over a member state departing the EU.”

The report also confirms Guido’s story from last month that the PM has asked Merkel to stay out of the campaign:

“an appeal from Cameron that Chancellor Angela Merkel stay out of the referendum debate. Even comments intended to provide support are not helpful, the Chancellery was informed”

So what’ll it be, a Scottish-style “vow” to the British people from cognac-swilling Commission chief? That should push Leave over the line…