UCF has won 22 consecutive games. The Knights claimed a national championship after finishing a 13-0 season by beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl.

Some UCF fans proclaim that they want Bama.

They aren't going to get their wish. Not this year. We'll get new College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night. But last week, UCF wasn't even in the Top 10. Even if there's chaos and UCF wins out, the Knights aren't going to get into the College Football Playoff.

That didn't stop BetOnline from posting an Alabama-UCF betting line Sunday. Any wagers will be graded as no action unless the two meet in the national championship game. But the posted line, which you can actually bet, is Alabama -31.

The primary reason for the huge number is UCF's defense, which gave up 670 yards and 40 points to Temple two weeks ago.

Assuming a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, which averages 48.6 points per game, could at least match Temple's scoring. Despite some weak performances, UCF's defense ranks 45th in defensive S&P+. Alabama has faced just three teams with higher-ranking defenses: Texas A&M, LSU and Mississippi State. The Tide averaged 32.7 points per game against that trio.

But UCF's defense has not played a team with the caliber of athletes that Alabama has. The Tide likely would score in the high 40s against the Knights, or close to its season average.

UCF's offense probably is as good as any team Alabama has faced this season. But the Tide just shut out LSU and Mississippi State in consecutive games, and allowed just 7 and 10 points to Ole Miss and Missouri, respectively. Those are the two best offenses the team has faced this year, statistically.

Let's be generous and say that UCF would get between 10 and 14 points against Alabama. Even that much production would represent a poor performance, one that would give Alabama plenty of time of possession and good field position, the better to capitalize on its offensive advantage.

UCF's biggest advantage may come on special teams and in the kicking game. But special teams advantages matter most in close games.

The UCF offensive line is SEC-sized. The five starters against Navy averaged 6-foot-4, 315 pounds. They protect McKenzie Milton very well and they are ninth in the country in stuff rate, meaning that opposing defenses rarely hit ball-carriers in the backfield.

The Knights defensive line and especially their linebackers are shorter and smaller. Alabama would be able to run the ball and bully UCF late in the game with a big lead, scoring and bleeding off the clock simultaneously.

Milton is a very good college player. He doesn't have Tagovailoa's arm talent or ability to read a defense, but he has more experience and he's a better runner. The UCF running game is efficient, and Milton's dual-threat ability would allow the team to score on Alabama, maybe a few times. This is a much better offense than Mississippi State or LSU.

But UCF could not come close to getting pressure on Tagovailoa the way Mississippi State did on Saturday. The pass rush would not be effective, and the secondary is not good enough to cover Alabama's receivers. After building a big early lead through the air, Alabama could lean on a demoralized UCF defense the rest of the game with Damien Harris, Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris.

My first thought was that BetOnline's oddsmakers may be as tired of the UCF narrative as many of you, and that they were trying to make some sort of statement by posting a bit of an inflated line. But after studying the hypothetical matchup a little more, I think the line is precise.

I'd handicap this game as an Alabama win by something like 42-10 or 45-13.

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper. He's the founder of Sports Locksmith and also works full-time for MyBookie out of Costa Rica.