Despite Donald Trump’s tweet suggesting that a US strike on Syria was imminent – and warning Russia to “get ready” – the US naval and other forces in the region suggest his rhetoric may have outpaced military readiness for anything but the most limited action.

Trump’s tweet – which he appeared to row back on on Thursday – appears to have given Syrian forces ample warning to move key assets, suggesting that any strike now would be largely symbolic and have little meaningful impact on the conduct of the war in Syria.



Crucially, there is currently no US aircraft carrier strike force in the region. This is significant as the Pentagon is likely to prefer to rely on ship-launched cruise missiles against a Syrian airspace heavily defended by recently installed Russian anti-aircraft missile systems.



US forces

Regardless of Trump’s bellicose language, the US currently does not have a US aircraft carrier strike force deployed in the Middle East. The carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, the lead vessel in carrier strike group nine, had been in the region launching strikes against both Islamic State and the Taliban but left recently after its four-month deployment, arriving in the Philippines on Wednesday.



Its replacement in the region, the USS Harry S Truman carrier group, left Norfolk, Virginia, on Wednesday and would not be able to reach the Mediterranean until early May, with its movements already being tracked by the Russian military, according to a statement to reporters from Lt Gen Viktor Poznikhir, first deputy chief of the Russian general staff’s main operations directorate.



That would leave a US guided-missile destroyer, the USS Donald Cook, which is in the Mediterranean, available for any missile strikes on Syria. The Cook is the same class of ship that was used by the US navy when Trump ordered his last – and limited – strikes against the Assad regime in April 2017 following a chemical weapons attack in Idlib.



A second US Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, the USS Porter, is also understood to be in the Mediterranean and like the Donald Cook carries an arsenal of around two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Another possibility is that missiles could be launched from US submarines, the locations of which are a tightly guarded secret.



Russian forces

A number of military and merchant vessels had been in harbour in the Russian naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, including two Kilo-class submarines. Satellite imaging suggests most of those vessels have now put to sea, leaving just one of the submarines.



That leaves unaccounted for a frigate armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, a patrol boat and rescue tug and the second submarine. Tartus, along with other bases used by Russia, is defended by the advanced S-400 missile system.



Russia’s Black Sea fleet is also in closer proximity to the Syrian coast than US forces amid reports that the fleet has been on a heightened level of alert since at least mid-March.

UK forces

The United Kingdom has six Typhoon fighter jets, eight GR4 Tornado aircraft and one air-to-air Voyager refuelling tanker based at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. According to the BBC, a Royal Navy submarine armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles was also being sent to the eastern Mediterranean.



France

France – if it joins in the strikes – is more likely to rely on its Rafale jets, which it can deploy from its home bases and refuel in flight.



Other forces

In an escalating conflict, numerous wildcards exist. These include Israel’s substantial military, which prosecuted scores of strikes inside Syria in recent years, as well as Hezbollah, which has tens of thousands of missiles in neighbouring Lebanon that could be used to target Israel. Iran, which like Russia and Hezbollah is a key backer of the Assad regime, and its forces pose a threat to any US shipping in the Gulf.

