Following months of hype, critical acclaim and a massive marketing campaign, Black Panther seems to have a very strong chance of breaking the Presidents Day weekend record, set by Deadpool two years ago. Meanwhile, Lionsgate and PureFlix will hope to counterprogram with Early Man and Samson.

There’s no doubt about it – Black Panther is going to be huge this weekend. Presales have been through the roof, the highest for any comic book film and the highest for any Q1 release up until this point. While some will point out that reserved seating has bolstered advanced ticketing in recent years, the numbers tell a different story; $6.94M in pre-sales alone (as of 3 days ago, meaning the real number is undoubtedly over $7M by now). That’s roughly triple the numbers of Thor: Ragnarok and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

So what exactly is the range for Black Panther? Well, the four day opening does throw things off a bit in comparisons, but Deadpool managed to top $150M back in 2016, without the benefit of 3D. With a PG-13 rating and better reviews, that number seems like a cakewalk. While some are predicting a 4 day of over $200M, I’m hesitant to go that far – mostly because the same was said for Captain America: Civil War in the days leading up to release, and that ended up opening to “only” $179M. A four day between $160-$180M seems like the most likely scenario, but I won’t be at all surprised if it goes higher.

Also opening is Lionsgate’s animated family feature Early Man. The studio is going for a more modest 2,494 theater release, and it seems as though it may struggle to hit $10M. Aardman hasn’t fared well in U.S releases as of late, with Shaun the Sheep making only $19M domestic, and The Pirates! hitting just $35M despite a budget of $55M. Reviews were strong, as expected, but the marketing has been lackluster, and attempting to capture family audiences who are already seeing Black Panther is going to be difficult.

Finally, PureFlix will open their new Biblical film Samson into 1,249 theaters. The distributor has a shoddy track record of wide releases, none of which ever made more than $21M. The PG-13 rating will prevent it from reaching younger family audiences, and the lack of marketing will likely keep it breaking out this weekend.

Predictions (Four-day)

Black Panther – $190M Peter Rabbit – $21M Fifty Shades Freed – $16.2M Jumanji – $8M Early Man – $6.7M The 15:17 to Paris – $8M

Samson – $4.5M