Mike Pence has been the good soldier. He’s standing up for his boss and cleaning up Donald Trump’s messes. And he’s even holding onto a thin edge in the polls that show more people still like him than dislike him.

But Trump’s campaign is devolving, driven by one self-inflicted wound after another. And barring a sharp turnaround, Pence’s allies will need to focus on minimizing the damage by association the Indiana governor will face if he aims for a political career after Election Day.


“Mike has done a good job distancing himself from Trump even as his VP choice, and as odd as that is as a campaign dynamic, it’s showing that his principles come first, however much some think he has compromised his principles,” a former Pence adviser wrote in an email, communicating on the condition of anonymity. “When this campaign is all said and done, people on all sides of Trump in the GOP will think [Pence] did the best he could given the circumstances. And I predict most of my anti-Trump friends will at that point at least admit that trying to unite the party against Clinton by joining Trump wasn’t entirely without its merits.”

Trump’s declining poll numbers, and the way in which national Republicans are increasingly distancing themselves from the nominee, underscore the risks Pence has taken on and the possibility that his long-rising political career could be headed toward a cliff in November.

Pence, 57, left a tough but winnable race for reelection as governor to join the ticket. The Pence image — “a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order” — is one that has been carefully crafted over more than a decade in public life. But it could now be in danger as Trump’s divisive campaign continues to upend the norms of American political discourse.

“The danger for Pence is that people are going to say he sold out. They’re not going to say he’s the reason Trump lost. They’re going to say he sold out his principles to be part of that ticket,” said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics. “And if he’s viewed as someone who sold out, then he loses his base.”

This was a risk that some people close to Pence saw coming even before Trump’s latest round of controversies and declining poll numbers.

“I wasn’t disappointed [that Pence accepted]. I was gravely concerned,” Charles Lake, Pence’s former pastor, said a few days after Pence took the job. “I think the thing that’s going to happen is Mike is going to balance Trump. … Mike’s not going to become a carbon copy of Trump.”

Thus far, Pence’s positive impression with much of the public remains intact — though much of the American public remains unaware of who he is, according to a Gallup Poll out Wednesday.The survey showed Pence with a 36 percent favorable rating, a 25 percent unfavorable rating and a 39 percent no opinion/unaware rating. That net favorable of +11 that tops not only both Clinton and Trump, whose numbers are underwater, but also his vice presidential opponent, Sen. Tim Kaine, who has a 33-30 favorable-unfavorable rating.

Pence considered running for the Republican nomination himself in 2016. But being on the losing national ticket — particularly this ticket — could carry lasting damage, operatives say. No losing vice presidential candidate has gone on to win the presidency since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. And, in the last half of the 20th century, Bob Dole was the only losing vice presidential candidate who had not previously served as vice president to go on to capture his party’s nomination (Walter Mondale won the Democratic nomination in 1984 after being the losing VP candidate in 1980, but he had served as Jimmy Carter’s vice president from 1977 to 1981).

If Pence runs in 2020, as many assume he will if Trump loses, much will depend on the extent of a possible defeat and how he frames it.

“Pence is a humble guy, he’s well-spoken, he’s soft-spoken,” said Rick Tyler, a former communications director for Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign for president. “He understands humility. People like him … I think you can trust Mike to do the honorable thing,” he said.

Tyler added there may come a point when Pence has to choose whether or not to distance himself from Trump: “There’s a lot of ways to do it,” he said, noting that voters might be inclined to give him leeway given the tough spot it would be. “I just think people will understand Pence is on the ticket, he was a good soldier, he did his job.”

Be that as it may, if Trump loses, candidates in the 2020 GOP primary will be judged in part by how they handled Trump. Cruz can tout his “vote your conscience” moment at the RNC. Ohio Gov. John Kasich never endorsed the nominee. House Speaker Paul Ryan endorsed Trump but frequently rebuked him for his comments. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was an early endorser and major surrogate.

But no one will be tied to Trump as much as Pence. At the same time, he is not well-positioned to take on Trump’s mantle as bombastic populist warrior: It simply does not fit with the persona of the humble Hoosier who still refers to himself as a “B-list Republican” and eschews Trump’s penchant for belittling rivals.

If Pence doesn’t get to be vice president, he has multiple options, including possibly challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly seat in 2018.

“If I were Mike Pence and this year did not go well, I would think about the Senate seat in Indiana in 2018, that’s a definite prospect and it puts him back on the stage nationally,” Downs said. “If the end goal is still the presidency, I would be looking for something else.”

Pence, who has a deep base among evangelical conservatives, may indeed be able to argue that he provided a seat at the table for that group and did what he could to keep Trump on track. But he will likely face a crowded field , one ready for a long slog ahead. And some Republicans are already turning their eyes to that next contest.

“We need to start organizing for 2020 immediately,” Tyler said. “Because this race is over.”