Breaking Down Dan Kadar’s Latest Mock for the 2019 NFL Draft

Welcome back to Attack the Mock (believe, bruv!) where we explore and deconstruct a mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft, and talk to the analyst about their process.

We’ve attacked Ray Mencio and Ryan Dunbar, and this time we’ve got Dan Kadar, who is well known for his SB Nation work under the moniker, Mocking the Draft. Today we dive into his mock draft, which is a fun one that’s featured in our 2019 NFL Mock Draft Database (bookmark it for your brain).

Here is a link to the FULL MOCK DRAFT, so you can follow along at home.

Check it out. Get inspired. Then make your own mock draft using the MockOut app, the only place you can easily create a mock draft and challenge your friends to a mock draft contest.

Let’s jump right into it.

Micky: When you sit down to start on a new mock, how do you begin?

Dan: Generally, when I do a new mock draft, my process includes a ton of stuff. It starts with what I hear from sources about players and team interest in players — the latter more so closer to the draft. Then I consider team need and team drafting tendencies. After that I make sure the player value is good. I don’t push need unless it’s so obvious. I always go in order.

Interesting that he mentions always going in order, because that’s actually one way that I mock differently. Especially early in draft season. If there is a player-team pairing that I just have a great feeling about and need to make work, I’ll go out of order and pencil it in. I usually have 3 or 4 with every mock draft I make. Then I’ll go back to the beginning and continue the mock from there, while figuring out a way to make those 3 or 4 picks make sense.

I think I am in the minority there, though, and that 99 out of 100 analysts probably do it the (right) way Dan does it. In order, start to finish.

The first player I wanted to discuss came off the board at pick 4.







4. Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky

This isn’t a questionable pick in any way, but it caught my attention because I’ve seen a lot of this lately. I asked him about it:

Micky: One thing I’ve noticed across many mocks is that Allen is starting to emerge as the consensus second-rated Edge rusher, behind Bosa. For the majority of the season, Ferrell was considered the second best. Why do you personally have Allen as second best?

Dan: Personally I didn’t have Ferrell rated as highly except right at the start of the season. He’s a really good player, but Allen is a lot more versatile. I think there’s more you can do scheme-wise with Allen. Ferrell, to me, is pretty locked in as a 4-3 end. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but you can put Allen in a bunch of different spots. And he’s much more accustomed to dropping in coverage.

I’m glad I asked about that, because I hadn’t heard anything to date about Allen’s ability in coverage, and it’s interesting for me to hear that it is in his tool bag. What I like about Ferrell this year, and what I thought might push him up, is that he has the prototypical build of a 4-3 DE. Not many top prospects in this class fit those size requirements. I assumed Allen’s size would be a hindrance, not allowing him to hold up against the run. It’s good to hear that some like to think of what his size allows him to do (play more a more versatile role, drop in coverage) rather than what it prevents him from doing.





7. Greedy Williams, CB LSU

Micky: Greedy to the Lions is an interesting one for me. You mentioned how their biggest need is edge rusher, but have them taking Greedy. Is he that much better of a prospect than any of the remaining edge rushers?

Dan: That was a value pick for sure. When I release rankings, Greedy Williams will be in the top five. At some point when you do mocks, you have to consider absolute value for a player. So I have edge rusher as need No. 1 for Detroit, but cornerback is right behind. That ended up being value/need instead of just need.

I am personally 100% on board with the reasoning behind this pick, though not really on board with the player it’s being applied to. It sounds like Greedy is going to be one of “Dan’s Guys” and it should be a fun and bumpy ride along with him. Over the past two weeks, Greedy is mocked in the top-5 in only 4 of the 23 mocks on our database, as his stock seems to have slipped in the past month after that uninspiring Alabama game.

But it is just one game, and Greedy was a regular in the top-5 earlier in the year for a reason. This pick feels like the kind of pick (like Ward to the Browns) that nobody really saw coming, though it makes perfect sense. Especially in this case, considering the fantastic depth on the D-line. Detroit could easily grab the value player here in Greedy, then address the Edge in round 2.





16. Drew Lock, QB Missouri

Micky: Let’s talk about the… Dolphin in the room? Drew Lock. Have you taken much heat for the pick? Do Dolphins fans seem into the idea? Do you think Lock’s particular strengths would fit well in Miami? Or do you just think they need to go QB, and Lock is the best one left?

Dan: Thus far, I’ve avoided SB Nation’s Dolphins site (The Phinsider, they’re great) in case there is some heat. For me, the one position you can really force need over value on is quarterback. And I think Lock will work his way into the first round if he does well at the Senior Bowl. Sometimes though, especially this time of year, you have to make some big assumptions doing a mock draft. That might be one of them.

First off, he’s right. Phinsider is great.

As for Lock… I also think he has a great chance to go higher than everyone thinks. Here’s the thing- I think draft analysts and mock draft fans in general sneer at the idea of drafting a QB for his “tools”. I know I am guilty of it. We get a weird sense of pleasure thinking that we know playing QB is more difficult than throwing the ball hard in shorts, and requires a more nuanced scouting approach than just “his arm’s a cannon”, so why don’t those idiot GMs know? But you know, sometimes guys are drafted for their tools, and it works out. Even if they don’t cross that 60% completion threshold in college. Favre, Stafford, and Ryan were all sub-60% passers, and all fared decently. Those kinds of QBs might not go in the first round a lot, but it’s happened before, and it will happen again. Especially if Josh Allen finishes this year strong.

Mostly I like this take because it’s just a bit more fun when there is at least the chance of a couple first round QBs getting fanbases energized. If Herbert and Haskins return to school (both of whom are rumored to do so) and Kyler Murray doesn’t come out, there’s only Grier (by the way, I’m expecting Grier to be one of “My Guys”) and, if everything goes according to Dan’s Senior Bowl prediction, Lock.

Moving toward the end of the round, there was one positional ranking that had me do a double-take.





26. T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa

Micky: Skipping ahead to pick 26. I’ve started to see Hockenson creep up into some first round mocks, but only a few have him above his teammate, Noah Fant. What have you seen from Hockenson that makes you mock him above Fant? Is it more about his fit in NE, or do you think he is an objectively better prospect?

Dan: Hockenson is just the better player, in my opinion. He’s more of a complete tight end. Fant is good, but I think he’s one of those “big wide receiver” type of tight ends. Those guys very much have a spot in the NFL, but I think Hockenson is a better prospect. If New England is looking for a Gronkowski-type of tight end, I think Hockenson is closer to that than Fant.

This TE duo actually reminds me (not in a player-for-player comparison, but in their skill sets) of the 2017 TE class, where O.J. Howard was the much more well-rounded prospect, and Evan Engram carried the “big WR” label because he was so fluid and athletic. They were drafted 19 and 23, respectively, and I wonder if it had more to do with team fit than it did with who was better? If the Giants were selecting 19th and the Bucs 23rd, would the Giants have taken Howard? Or was Engram the TE-type they wanted all along?

Fant and Hockenson might end up being drafted near each other (6 picks apart here in Dan’s mock) and might end up going to teams with a preference for the specific skill set each brings, rather than one being acknowledged as the better player. I’ve gotten used to seeing Fant as the top TE for so long, it’s hard for me to imagine another TE (especially another TE from the same team) overtaking him… but a lot of analysts who I respect see Hockenson as the superior player.

After seeing him land here and talking to Dan a bit about him, I am finally open to the possibility.

Alright, time to get a move on.

Micky: Is there any team you feel like you have a particularly good read on, in regards to front office draft strategies, prospect scheme fits, size or skill requirements, etc.?

Dan: Naturally, living in Northeast Ohio, I have a much greater familiarity with the Cleveland Browns. Some teams you can figure out some positional tendencies and try and apply them. The Seahawks, for instance, are generally specific in the type of cornerbacks and offensive linemen they drafted.

Don’t I know it.

Since he’s got his finger on that Brown Pulse (gross. sorry.) I’m going to pay special attention to his Browns pick here, and for the rest of draft season. In this mock, he thinks CLE will realize that going from Joe HOF Thomas to an undrafted rookie at LT was maybe not the best decision, and make amends with the fastest riser of December (though Byron Murphy might want to have words) Cody Ford, the OT out of Oklahoma.

Thanks, Dan, for taking the time to defend your mock. You all probably already follow him on Twitter, but if you don’t… do it now. You’re missing out.

Keep an eye out for his next mock (and pay attention to his Browns pick) which you know will be there on our mock draft database (updated every day) and stay tuned for more installments of Attack the Mock.