One common reaction to the latest match-fixing scandal in Korea’s StarCraft 2 esports scene was simply “Oh wow! Again?” For a game once referred to as “Korea’s national sport”, today, it seems like“Korea’s bad habit.” Reports have gone as far as connecting the uncovered match-fixing ring to the Korean mafia, and police ultimately arrested around a dozen people. Some commentators are calling it the nail in the coffin of the franchise—a franchise that many acknowledge is largely responsible for reviving the esports scene and paving the way to the vibrant scene we know and enjoy today.

I disagree. StarCraft is far from dead. But that doesn’t mean it’s in perfect shape either. The upcoming release of the game’s final expansion, Legacy of the Void, will undoubtedly expand the game’s lifespan for a few years. And Blizzard has additionally promised that the game’s current staff will remain on board following the expansion’s release. However, with waning interest in the game’s competitive scene after years of Korean dominance and poor support for other regions—coupled with Blizzard’s involvement in multiple other esports franchises like Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm, and Overwatch—and it’s hard to see how StarCraft plans to be around after the LotV hype bubble bursts.

If we really want to know what lies in Starcraft’s future, first, we must look to its performance thus far.

One of the most telling figures to look at is the game’s yearly prize money. Following the game’s release, prize money spiked up in 2012 to $3,750,000. But then, it fell, to less than $2,500,000 in 2015 (excluding the last months of 2015). At best, it will reach the same number like 2014, which still is far from where it was the years before, and even further from its competitors. Even if you factor in the original StarCraft and the small competitive scene that remains for it, the franchise is going downhill.

The game’s player base has also suffered. The number of active pro-players is significantly lower compared to other esports titles. One thing to consider is that StarCraft is a 1v1 game, where it’s popular concurrents are team based. However, just looking at the game itself, the player base trend is pointing downwards. This is not counting the casual players of course, where we actually witness an increase that might be initiated by the hype towards Legacy of the Void (Common knowledge is that half of the game’s players only participate in noncompetitive modes like the game’s solo campaign). It also didn’t help that many of the most famous StarCraft pros turned their back on the game or retired.

There is a rule of thumb which goes like this: a healthy player base leads to a healthy esports scene, because many players follow the pro-scene for several reasons. With this in mind, an increase of total active users might resurge StarCraft esports. But a popular esports title needs a second pillar to be relevant too: regular and valuable tournaments and/or leagues. Our third chart shows what happened in terms of tournaments in the last five years. To cut it short, it is less than where it’s started, but stabilized on a lower level.

While the overall diagnosis to date looks bad, there is still hope. There is a positive correlation between the number of casual players and the tournament viewers, which is essential to get StarCraft working again. We also might see some popular pro-players who left the scene think about a comeback for Legacy of the Void.

Last but not least, there is the lesson of Counter-Strike. Just a few years ago, Counter-Strike laid down in coma too with certain death proclaimed by many. And look where it is now: back on top of the esports scene

All StarCraft needs to raise from its sickbed is the treatment Valve applied to CS:GO. Blizzard needs to use a new way to monetize the game. In times where free-to-play dominates the market, adding virtual goods would be a start. The most successful esports titles to date are working this way—why should StarCraft be any different?

But more on that later.