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It could take many months for new drugs or vaccines to beat back Covid-19. But Citigroup analysts last week offered a glimmer of hope: rapid tests for viral antibodies that could provide a path to normalcy more quickly.

Citi’s Andrew Baum and his colleagues argue that 60% of U.S. workers could be given quick, point-of-care serology tests by the end of April—95% by the end of May. Positive tests could allow up to 400,000 people who had been exposed to, and recovered from, Covid-19 to return to work, and up to 90 million by July.

How many undiagnosed U.S. cases of Covid-19 are there? Nobody knows without widespread antibody testing. Baum’s estimate: 160,000 to 3.2 million.

Serology tests use a blood sample to seek evidence that a person has produced antibodies against the virus. Those testing positive may be immune to new Covid-19 infections—though that’s unproven. The Food and Drug Administration has allowed sales of antibody tests, which are available overseas and beginning to enter the U.S., without prior approval.

Citi doesn’t go into detail as to where the tests are coming from—a key question given the disastrous U.S. experience with Covid-19 molecular testing. A few companies are making Covid-19 serology tests: Biomerica shipped samples in mid-March, while Henry Schein said it would have “at least several hundred thousand” tests ready by March 30.

Baum notes that regulators haven’t confirmed the tests’ accuracy. And someone who has antibodies to the virus may not necessarily be immune to another infection. But as a bridge to a vaccine, it might be just what the doctor ordered.

Clarification: The last paragraph of a previous version of this story misstated the implications of a positive test result. A person who has antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19 may not necessarily be immune.

Next Week

Monday 4/6

The Saudia Arabia-led Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds an emergency meeting with its non-OPEC allies, notably Russia, in an attempt to stabilize oil prices. West Texas crude had fallen by two-thirds this year through the end of March before rebounding.

Incyte webcasts a call to discuss clinical-trial data of ruxolitinib cream for the treatment of eczema.

Tuesday 4/7

Levi Strauss reports quarterly results.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February. Consensus estimates are for 6.8 million job openings on the last business day of February, compared with seven million in January.

The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for February. Last year, consumer borrowing climbed 4.5%, to nearly $4.2 trillion, still below the five-year average jump of 5.6%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank cut its cash target rate to a record low 0.25% on March 19 after an emergency meeting, hoping to stave off Australia’s first recession since 1991.

Wednesday 4/8

Costco Wholesale reports sales data for March.

Thursday 4/9

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Economists forecast an 79 reading, a steep decline from March’s 89.1 figure.

Adobe and Dow hold their annual shareholder meetings.

The BLS releases the producer price index for March. Expectations are for a 0.3% drop, after a 0.6% fall in February. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen gaining 0.1%, compared with February’s 0.3% decline.

The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 4. This past week, the DOL reported 6.6 million jobless claims for the week ending on March 28, the second straight record high.

Friday 4/10

Equity and fixed-income markets in the U.S. are closed in observance of Good Friday.

The BLS releases the consumer price index for March. Consensus estimates are for a 1.3% rise year-over-year, after a 2.3% rise in February. The core CPI is expected to gain 2.4%, matching February’s data.

The Treasury Department releases the U.S. budget statement for March. Economists forecast a $150 billion shortfall. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, and the trillions earmarked to fight the disease, the annual budget deficit was expected to top $1 trillion for fiscal 2020, which ends in September. It’s likely that the U.S. will hit a record high deficit this year, surpassing 2009’s $1.4 trillion.

Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at josh.nathan-kazis@barrons.com