AT THE end of 2010, Geelong lost the best player in the land (Gary Ablett) but won the premiership the next year.

Lance Franklin left the Hawks in 2013, but Alastair Clarkson’s men won the next two premierships. And despite losing Patrick Dangerfield — arguably the best midfielder in the competition — Adelaide looks like a genuine premiership chance for the first time in years.

On the flip side, the Sydney Swans may have the best key forward in the game, but their forward line has functioned worse since he arrived.

It doesn’t make sense, does it?

Round 18

In Franklin, the Swans have the leading goalkicker in the AFL, but are the second-lowest scoring side in the top eight.

Franklin kicked five goals on the weekend, but the Swans went down to the Bulldogs by four points. Sydney had five individual goal kickers while the Bulldogs had 10.

Sydney players are suffering from a mathematical paradox known as ‘Braess paradox’ when entering their forward 50. This paradox arises when there is a difference between the best decision in a particular passage of play and the best decision in the context of an entire match or season.

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In essence, if the best immediate option is often the same and you keep choosing it, you will become too predictable to the opposition and your team will perform worse overall. Sometimes the best option in the long run is to choose what might be a lower percentage or unexpected option to keep the opposition on their toes.

This is not just an armchair theory about Sydney, as Braess paradox is a proven theory and occurs in real-world situations.

Adding a shortcut to a road network can sometimes increase travel times and closing down a road can sometimes make traffic flow better. For example, closing 42nd Street in New York City in 1990 for a day actually improved the overall traffic in the area. Blocking off a road improved traffic flow.

This phenomenon is often referred to as the “overused shortcut”. In road networks, the shortcut is an actual shortcut (like 42nd Street).

But in footy, a shortcut can be a star player who offers a ‘shortcut’ to scoring a goal. Gary Ablett might be a shortcut to goal because giving him the ball will probably result in a goal sooner.

So could adding a star player to a team lead to a decrease in performance? And, conversely, could removing a star player increase performance?

Lance Franklin is the most used inside 50 target in any top eight team. Source: AAP

There is anecdotal evidence in other sports, such as the ‘Ewing Theory’ in the NBA, where superstar Patrick Ewing’s teams seemed to perform better without him.

The result of Braess paradox could be happening right before our eyes at the Sydney Swans.

Sydney is the second-lowest scoring team in the top eight this season and is being carried by the AFL’s leading goalkicker.

Franklin is the most used inside 50 target in any top eight team (23.7 per cent of kicks inside 50). That’s no surprise; you look up and see a guy with 758 career goals to his name — why wouldn’t you kick it to him?

But since Franklin’s arrival at the Swans in 2014, their average score and ability to convert inside 50s into goals has decreased, despite Franklin clearly holding up his end of the bargain.

In 2012 and 2013 they averaged the magical 100 points. However in the Franklin years, their points for average has dropped to 97, 91 and 96.

In 2012, the Swans converted an inside 50 into a goal 27.6 per cent of the time — ranked sixth in the competition. Over the past decade, the premiership team has ranked no lower than sixth in this statistic. But since the Franklin arrival, Sydney’s conversion has dropped significantly to a point where it has ranked 10th, 12 and 11th.

Sydney's Lance Franklin kicked five of his side’s 11 goals against the Western Bulldogs. Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: News Corp Australia

But the Swans are the No. 1 team for inside 50s (averaging 58 per game) and have the competition’s leading goalkicker.

This is where the idea of the ‘overused shortcut’ comes in.

It’s not that players are making the wrong decision in kicking to Franklin. But if your opponent knows you’re going to choose the ‘best’ option every time, they will respond — and that option may no longer be the best one.

Having a shortcut isn’t always a good thing if everyone knows about it.

Last year’s premier, Hawthorn, had four players kick over 40 goals. None of them were targeted more than 12.1 per cent of the time.

West Coast had a player like Buddy last year in Josh Kennedy, who was targeted with 23.5 per cent of kicks inside 50 and kicked 80 goals. But the Eagles also found 45 goals from Mark LeCras and 40 from Josh Hill.

Adelaide, the third-highest scoring team this year, has a good mix up forward. The Crows spread their inside 50 targets between Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins and Eddie Betts, who have produced 59, 46 and 63 goals respectively so far.

This season, Sydney’s second-highest goalkicker is Isaac Heeney with 17 goals, with Kurt Tippett next with 15 goals. Neither has been targeted more than eight per cent of the time. Of other top eight teams, only the Bulldogs have just one player with more than 20 goals — and their scoring woes are similar to the Swans’.

Isaac Heeney is Sydney’s second leading goalkicker. Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: News Corp Australia

So would Sydney be better off if it was less Buddy-centric?

Hawthorn from 2012 may give us the answer. In that year, Franklin missed six games mid-season with a hamstring injury. In those six games, Hawthorn scored an average of 140 points. In games that Franklin played, Hawthorn averaged 113 points.

Adelaide’s season so far could also be an example of Braess paradox. Many predicted the Crows’ demise with the departure of Dangerfield, but closing down an overused shortcut can improve overall performance.

It’s not as clear-cut when considering a midfielder, but the 2016 Crows are scoring more from stoppages, while their winning more disposals, centre clearances, disposals, effective kicks, contested possessions and inside 50s. Not bad for a team that just lost the best player in the competition.

So why have Geelong become a better team? Haven’t the Cats added a shortcut in Dangerfield?

Adding a star player only has an adverse effect when it makes a team one-dimensional and it becomes reliant on that player. It hurts them when they overuse the shortcut.

That clearly isn’t the situation at Geelong this year, but the Swans may need to get creative to get back into the premiership hunt.