Coach K is going for 1,000 wins, his protege Mike Brey is coming to Raleigh for a big game for both teams and North Carolina is hosting a Florida State team that is…a basketball team? What more could we even hope for this weekend?

FLORIDA STATE (10-9, 2-4) AT NO. 15 NORTH CAROLINA (15-4, 5-1)

Time: 2:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

So, North Carolina is playing pretty well. But the Tar Heels are playing well when they are taking – and making – good shots. They are still a little turnover-y (they’ve had been above 18 percent in two of their last three games) and had two of their three lowest offensive rebounding percentages in the last three games. But again, the good shots thing – that’s a good thing. Florida State is not playing so well. But they are getting to the line and doing a good job defending two-pointers. So there’s that. If they do that against UNC, plus take care of the ball, I mean, maybe? Yeah I’ve got nothing.

PTP-ERS

Montay Brandon. Florida State’s junior guard is having a really nice season, posting an eFG percentage of 58.2 percent (133rd nationally), avoiding fouls and adding an insane free-throw rate (71.2, 52nd nationally). Last year in just one meeting with North Carolina, he had 18 points on 6-of-8 shooting (6-of-8 from the foul line) in a loss. He’s shooting a ridiculous 60 percent from two, and just high enough from the line to make them count (67.6 percent). North Carolina had trouble slowing him down on drives then; the Tar Heels still at times struggle with quick guards and he could have a big afternoon on the glass and from the foul line.

Marcus Paige. Yes, Marcus Paige. Does North Carolina need Paige to have a big scoring game to beat Florida State? No. But will it need Paige to play well in his overall floor game? Yes. Because he didn’t for the second half against Virginia Tech (his ORtg of 75 was his lowest of the season) and that’s what North Carolina needs from him. Not points. Not three’s, although those are nice. It needs the 17 assists to three turnovers he posted in the games in between. He had 12 at Wake Forest, but he more importantly had eight assists to three turnovers (he went 9-0 in the win at NC State). That is the Paige that North Carolina needs all the time – giving his teammates nice feeds in the post, taking care of the ball and shooting efficiently when called upon. That’s it.

TEMPO-FREE

Through six games in ACC play, Roy Williams-coached North Carolina teams have been 5-1 five times before this year (this is the first time since 2012). The worst any of those teams finished in ACC play was 11-5 (in 2007). In fact, Williams’ ACC record after the six-game mark has been a combined 88-24 (.786; seven of those losses came in 2010) with his teams going 9-1 six times and 11-1 once (last year) down the stretch. So that’s seven of 11 years his teams have lost just one game in league play after the six-game mark. … Somehow, Florida State is 6-3 this season when turning the ball over on 20% or more of its possessions and 4-6 when it turns it over less often than that. Florida State’s last five wins dating back to Dec. 20 have come when they turn it over 20 percent of the time or more.

NARRATIVES

Florida State Win: Well OK then...

Florida State Loss: Well that was pleasing to the eyes said no one

North Carolina Win: Right now Carolina is all like

North Carolina Loss: Wait…what?

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 83-67. Tar Heel train keeps rolling. I would’ve had a little bit more pause if this were at Florida State, though, just because that’s a weird place for UNC (and other teams) to play. But, alas.

SUNDAY

NO. 5 DUKE (16-2, 4-2) AT ST. JOHN’S (13-5, 2-4 BIG EAST)

Time: 2:00 p.m.

TV: FOX Sports 1

#ANALYSIS

ZONEZONEZONEZONEZONEZONEZONE-MG!

Sorry. OK, so I would be doing Krzyzewski a disservice if I acted like this game is a bigger deal to him or his players in terms of going for 1,000 wins, mostly because of the way Quinn Cook practically rolled his eyes and laughed when asked about all the milestones they have to deal with (SO SORRY FOR YOUR INCONVENIENCE QUINN!) when it comes to Krzyzewski. He was kidding, and so am I. But you know what is a big deal? ZONE-MAGEDDON, that’s what! Guess what guys; we’re going to see it again. Because St. John’s shoots 31.2 percent from three. So don’t go crazy when you see it. You’ll see it. St. John’s doesn’t even rebound offensively all that well in a way that would cause Duke to go away from it. St. John’s is pretty good on defense, though, and blocks a lot of shots. So Duke is going to have to play a solid enough zone to keep St. John’s guards out of the lane while also getting – and hitting – good shots on the other end.

PTP-ERS

Justise Winslow. So, remember that whole confidence thing? Through a combination of injuries and just a lack of need, Winslow – the physical freak of a freshman – hasn’t gotten his yet since the losses to NC State and Miami. He seemingly tweaked his shoulder against Miami, and Krzyzewski mentioned a rib issue as well after the Pitt win on Monday (he tweaked it again in that game). But he’s had some time to rest, and one would think he’ll heal up a bit (he came back into both games). He’s shooting 7-of-29 in Duke’s last four games and 5-of-15 from the foul line. Oh, and four assists to six turnovers. Not great. He’s the ex-factor for Duke, and if he’s not right, it won’t matter in this game but it might again soon.

D’Angelo Harrison. Speaking of guys playing with injuries, the senior guard – a contender for Big East Player of the Year and steadily climbing the St. John’s career scoring list – has a strained calf and it has showed in the last few games. He’s shooting 5-of-28 from the field in that span and had his two worst ORtg’s of the year. But it all goes through him. And Duke’s defense loves to cut the metaphorical head off of the snake of its opponents. Harrison is that head. But Duke, at times, has struggled with guards who get into the lane and Harrison has an excellent free-throw rate and fouls-drawn rate. So if he’s healthy, Duke must play that zone or man or whatever the heck they’re playing very effectively to limit an already-hobbled Harrison. He’s played well in St. John’s wins and losses, but he’s also been their best player and, again, that’s what Duke teams do when they’re at their best - take away your best player.

TEMPO-FREE

One reason Duke’s defense was better in the earlier part of the season is that it forced turnovers at a high rate; 12 of Duke’s first 13 opponents this year turned it over on 18 percent or more of their possessions (Wisconsin was the only exception). Eight were over 20 percent. In the last five games, though, Duke’s best turnover percentage by an opponent was Pitt’s 17.7 percent. Three of their last five opponents have been at 15.2 percent or better. … St. John’s might be ranked pretty high in Ken Pom, but the Red Storm does not have one win this season over a team in the top 50 of his rankings and just four in the top 100 (two have come in the last week or so; St. John’s is now 4-5 vs. the top 100 and 8-0 versus everyone else).

NARRATIVES

Duke Win: Have a moment to yourself for this one, Coach. Like, at least something like this. Even if it’s only in your mind.

Duke Loss: This just seemed….fitting somehow. And also, painful.

PREDICTION

Duke, 77-68. And it won’t be that close.

NO. 8 NOTRE DAME (18-2, 6-1) AT NC STATE (13-7, 4-3)

Time: 6:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

So something tells me that at this point, NC State fans would not mind if that win-lose-win-lose pattern continues, at least for one more game. Here’s the thing – NC State defends very well in the halfcourt usually, and they did a great job containing Miami’s guards. But man alive are they going to have to be really good offensively if they’re not going to force turnovers, because most ACC teams are going to find ways to score at some point no matter how good your defense is. Notre Dame does not turn it over very much at all, but the Irish are going to find a way to score. So NC State is going to have to find a way to keep up. These cold stretches that have plagued it in the last three games, really, aren’t going to work in this one. Notre Dame has the No. 1 offense in the country. With a bullet. But the defense is 152nd. So score. Points. Make. Shots.

PTP-ERS

Zach Auguste. It’s going to be Notre Dame’s recently-returned center versus a whole pack of big men. His 20 minutes against Virginia Tech were his most since Jan. 10, and his 16 points were his most since he had 18 in the win at North Carolina. Like this game, he was going against a team with a lot of size and the way Notre Dame used him, both on cuts and on pick and rolls, etc., was beautiful. But he’s a game-changer for them, and his mere presence alone is helpful. Still, nothing is easy about scoring on NC State’s bevy of big men, and he’s going to have to stay on the court to help his team lest they have to use the 6-5 Bonzie Colson at center again.

The bigs. Yes, all of the bigs. All of them. NC State is going to have to exploit its size advantage against the Irish, which will be considerable. In three of the last four games, probably, multiple NC State big men have had nice games. At Miami, it was Abdul-Malik Abu’s career-high 19, but Kyle Washington added eight big ones. But BeeJay Anya three turnovers in 20 minutes and Lennard Freeman was 0-for-3. At Florida State, Washington had eight, Freeman and Anya each had seven and Abu was a non-factor. Anyway, it doesn’t matter which big it is, or bigs – they have to show up and play well. That simple.

TEMPO-FREE

Notre Dame’s V.J. Beachem had a rough game against Virginia Tech, shooting 0-of-10 from the floor (0-of-3 from 2, 0-of-7 from 3). Everyone else on his team didn’t, though - they combined to shoot 17-of-30 from two and 12-of-19 (!!) from 3. … You want to know how simple it is for NC State to win games? I’ll tell you. They’re now 12-2 on the season when posting an OE over 100 and 1-5 when they do not hit that mark. And some of the losses – two, in fact – have been close, as was the lone win. So yes, the margin of error is thin but the result remains the same. Take care of the ball, shoot it well and be efficient and the defense will take care of itself.

NARRATIVES

Notre Dame Win: Oh yeah any more questions now jerks

Notre Dame Loss: Wait is this bad is this OK or is this disappointing? I mean Duke did lose there but North Carolina won there and by transitive doesn’t that mean Notre Dame should win there too

NC State Win: YOU DID IT WOLFPACK

NC State Loss: Can only be so mad about a loss like this and the team tried their hardest and leave them alone this league isn’t easy

PREDICTION

Notre Dame, 79-73. No offense to the Wolfpack intended here. This is more a compliment to the beautiful Notre Dame offense. It will not surprise me a bit if NC State pulls this one out at home, though.

__

SATURDAY

WAKE FOREST (9-10, 1-5) AT CLEMSON (10-8, 2-4)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Here you go, Wake. Now is your chance. The schedule has eased up a bit – four of Wake’s first six ACC opponents were top 50 in Ken Pom, and three were top 13 – so now it’s time to show you’ve made the next step and win an imminently winnable ACC road game. As for Clemson, I don’t even know what to do with you. Like, what are you doing. Look, Clemson is a tough place to play although not, seemingly, for a scuffling Florida State team, but whatever. Wake’s got to get the shots it wants and make things tough for Clemson in the paint. Make Clemson shoot – and make – jump shots. If they do, hey, tip your hat. But Wake has to defend better than its been defending. And Clemson, you just…I mean, seriously, how do you beat the crap out of Syracuse at home and then lose to Florida State at home mere days later? You know what? Forget it.

PTP-ERS

Codi Miller-McIntyre. It’s happening kind of slowly, but it’s happening – the junior point guard is becoming the kind of force he always seemed like he could be in flashes. In the last two games – both losses, but still – he’s averaged 22 points on 15-of-31 shooting (3-of-7 from three), adding 11-of-19 free throws. Oh, and 6.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists. He was dominant when he got room to drive against North Carolina and drew fouls seemingly at will. He’s not a great free-throw shooter (58.9 percent) or three-point shooter (28.9 percent) but hey, he’s drawing fouls, and he’s tough to guard on drives.

Demarcus Harrison. Clemson’s designated sharp-shooter – as much as anyone can be for the offensively-challenged Tigers – has been anything but lately. In the last three games, Harrison is 1-of-9 from 2 and 4-of-14 from 3 (3-of-23 overall). That’s, um….well, it’s not good. He’s seeing over 20 minutes a game, he’s not getting a ton of steals or rebounds or even assists oh and also he’s turning it over too much now (he has five in the last two games alone). So I mean, if you’re going to be out there, have a positive contribution.

TEMPO-FREE

Wake’s defense was somewhat respectable earlier this season, holding nine of its 13 non-conference opponents to under 100 in OE. But in ACC play so far, including a Dec. 6 loss at NC State, Wake has allowed all six opponents to crack the 100 mark in OE, including allowing 110 or higher to three of its last five opponents. … Clemson remains one of the weirdest teams ever. The Tigers have four wins over Ken Pom top-100 teams but losses to four teams ranked 140th or worse, including most recently against Florida State, which was Clemson’s worst Ken Pom loss since Dec. 1. And it was just after pounding a team ranked over 80 spots ahead of FSU in Ken Pom at home. So go figure.

NARRATIVES

Wake Forest Win: AN ACC ROAD WIN WHAT I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH MY HANDS

Wake Forest Loss: Opportunity to build momentum wasted but hey still going in the right track right right RIGHT?

Clemson Win: I don’t know anymore.

Clemson Loss: If only Clemson were this adorable when it failed.

PREDICTION

Clemson, 61-56. Because I think Wake will and should win. This is what it’s come to between us, Clemson.

MIAMI (13-5, 3-2) AT SYRACUSE (14-5, 5-1 ACC)

Time: 4:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

#ANALYSIS

Miami won at Cameron, so they’re not going to be afraid of this one. Also, they’ve watched tape at Syracuse. That’s scary for different reasons. I kid. (Sort of.) Miami is comfortable at a slow pace, can make three-pointers and doesn’t turn it over much. All of those things are good against Syracuse. Whether Miami can do all of those things is a different story. And man for the love of all that is holy does Syracuse need to start making shots.

PTP-ERS

Tonye Jekiri. I feel like I’ve already picked him twice this year, and that might be two times too many. Because he’s not a huge part of Miami’s offense. But he is Miami’s only real size right now, because I’m not ready to count the still-raw Ivan Cruz Uceda. He’s going to be needed against Syracuse’s big man, though, on defense – one of the best in the ACC in Rakeem Christmas. If he gets in early foul trouble, Miami could be in trouble, too.

Rakeem Christmas. Speaking of the big fella, he could have a huge afternoon. Miami’s going to struggle against teams with opposing big men – even in the win over Duke, it’s not like it limited Jahlil Okafor consistently – and Christmas has been downright dominant at times this year, though he got into some foul trouble against Boston College and was like yeah teammates I’ve been carrying you jerks all year, why don’t you handle this one on your own? And they were like OK I guess. And so they did. But Rakeem can’t get in foul trouble in this one. Well, he can, but he’d better stay on the court.

TEMPO-FREE

After a stretch where its defense struggled, Miami has now held three of its last four opponents to an OE of 99.5 or worse; NC State had a 96.9, which was the Wolfpack’s third-worst of the season. … This will be Syracuse’s first game against a Ken Pom top 100 (like, inside the top 100) opponent since Dec. 20 at Villanova. Talk about a fortunate start to ACC play for the Orange. … Last year at Syracuse, Miami only fell by four points in a 49-possession game, the slowest played by either team all season last year.

NARRATIVES

Miami Win: BIG WIN BIG WIN BIG WIN

Miami Loss: ACC MEATGRINDER

Syracuse Win: Syracuse is all like yay we’re still good at basketball

Syracuse Loss: Syracuse fans, officially now:

PREDICTION

Syracuse, 62-58. I’m not ready to trust you yet, Miami. I want to.

SUNDAY

NO. 2 VIRGINIA (18-0, 6-0) AT VIRGINIA TECH (8-10, 0-5)

Time: 1:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

I know that Virginia fans – some of them, anyway – are terrified of this game. Unless they’re terrified that their vision will be damaged irreparably by watching it, then they have nothing to worry about. Virginia Tech is still without its leading scorer, and may be again this Saturday. But it probably won’t matter anyways. Buzz Williams continues to sweat and toil and jump on the sideline, while Virginia just continues to basically be the Swamp of Sadness from the Neverending Story, sucking Atreyu’s horse (or its opponents) down into the black nothingness. Little do they know that Virginia Tech is already there. But like Atreyu, they continue to pull helplessly at the reins as they cry out in anguish. (Sorry, spoiler alert.)

PTP-ERS

Justin Anderson. No one loves Virginia’s junior wing more than I do. But he’s been a bit off the last two games by his standards, shooting 2-of-9 from two and 1-of-6 from three (3-of-15 overall). He also has a total of three rebounds. Of course, he also has five assists and no turnovers, and he’s hit some big buckets. But it would be nice for the ‘Hoos to get him going again. And not just for my ACC fantasy team.

Satchel Pierce. Because I have to pick someone. But the 7-foot freshman has seen a lot more time since Joey Van Zegeren’s suspension, and he’s responded pretty well. He’s got some skill, but not in a way I can quantify with statistics. So you’ll just have to take my word for it. He did have six points and four rebounds (all offensive) against Louisville, so that’s something.

TEMPO-FREE

OK, so what Virginia did to Georgia Tech was basically the equivalent of the scene with the curb in American History X and that is all the detail I’ll give so as not to spoil anyone. I can’t even type that without getting grossed out. Georgia Tech shot 12-of-37 from INSIDE the three-point line (32.4 percent), 0-of-12 from three (um, yeah, that’s zero percent) and 4-of-8 from the foul line. Oh, and 10 turnovers in a low-possession game. Their 53.0 OE was their worst of the Ken Pom era and only the second time they’ve been below 60 in that span. … Virginia Tech did hold North Carolina to a 99.8 OE, the second-lowest by a Virginia Tech major-conference opponent this year and lowest by far in ACC play.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win: As expected.

Virginia Loss: YOU HAVE LET EVERYONE DOWN AND YOU ARE THE WORST

Virginia Tech Win: WOOOOO

Virginia Tech Loss: Like I said. Swamp of sadness.

PREDICTION"

Virginia Infinity, Virginia Tech 0. (Not really. We’ll go Virginia, 72-49.)

BOSTON COLLEGE (8-9, 0-5) AT GEORGIA TECH (9-9, 0-6)

Time: 1:00 p.m.

TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

SOMEONE HAS TO GET A WIN! Who’s it gonna be? And which team is going to find a way to lose the game, since both have throughout ACC play? There’s really not much to say about this one, is there? Both have had their struggles on offense and defense. Neither can really shoot from distance all that well. Both have found ways to lose games. And someone will have to win this one. SO BUCKLE UP EVERYONE

PTP-ERS

Charles Mitchell. I mean, you have to go with the only player who had an ORtg over 100 against Virginia, right? That is miraculous enough in its own right. But Georgia Tech is going to need his size and rebounding. He played just 16 minutes against the Cavaliers and made 3-of-4 shots and grabbed three boards. Why he’s not playing more, I"m not sure, but hey, it’s not like anything was really working.

TEMPO-FREE

Georgia Tech's historically bad OE put the Yellow Jackets dead last in ACC-only OE - a 90.0. There are only three other teams in the ACC below 100 on average. … Boston College finally hit a few three-pointers against Syracuse! Only problem was, they hit just 6-of-22 two-point baskets. SIX OF TWENTY-TWO.

NARRATIVES

Boston College Win: Very meaningful indeed

Boston College Loss: Can’t possibly have a moral victory against a team that only gets moral victories themselves, can you, Eagles?

Georgia Tech Win: Good for you guys you did it

Georgia Tech Loss: Georgia Tech fans:

PREDICTION

Georgia Tech, 63-60. I guess.

NO. 10 LOUISVILLE (15-3, 3-2) AT PITTSBURGH (13-6, 3-3)

Time: 4:00 p.m.

TV: CBS

#ANALYSIS

So…if Louisville is not going to force turnovers (it didn’t against Duke, and Pitt has been even better in ball security in league play), at a certain point, it’s going to have to make shots. Pitt is no great shakes on defense, but neither was Duke entering that game. And yet the zone Duke showed so befuddled Louisville that it missed a multitude of open shots. Louisville’s not going to beat many teams if it’s shooting like that. Sometimes, it really is that simple.

PTP-ERS

Montrezl Harrell. There’s no question that the 6-8 forward is a great player. But he’s been a relative non-factor in the last four games or so, ending 20 percent of Louisville’s possessions or less when he was on the court (including a season-low 16 percent against Duke) and scoring 36 points in that four-game span. He didn’t often get the ball in the flow of the offense, as the Louisville Courier-Journal’s Jeff Greer points out. He’s going to have to, as Pitino said, be Kenneth Faried while also posting up a bit more. But either way, Louisville needs him to get more touches in a bad way.

James Robinson. So, listen, buddy. I know you have to shoot sometimes. But maybe…not as much? Robinson is 5-of-27 in the last four games and 0-of-8 from three. So yeah, that’s not great. Pitt is 2-2 in that span. He’s Pitt’s junior point guard, and even though as Russell Westbrook correctly points out, that doesn’t mean pass guard – maybe it should for him? Entering the Duke game, Robinson had 46 assists to 14 turnovers in his last 11 games. He had three assists to three turnovers against Duke; against Louisville’s pressure, he’s going to have to take care of the ball and move it well.

TEMPO-FREE

After holding all of its 2014 opponents to under 100 in OE, Louisville has allowed four of its five January opponents to go over 100; the one exception was Clemson (85.6). … After some offensive struggles to start ACC play – an 87.7 OE against NC State and a 94.0 against Boston College – Pitt has now gone over 100 in four straight games; Pitt would have been higher against Duke if not for a 17.7 percent turnover rate, its highest since Dec. 23.

NARRATIVES

Louisville Win: LOUISVILLE IS BACK

Louisville Loss: No but seriously

Pittsburgh Win: Party time

Pittsburgh Loss: “Pitt” and “pain” are each four letters and each start with “p” that can’t be a coincidence

PREDICTION

Louisville, 71-64. An eight-day break, with a Hall of Fame coach at the helm? They’ll get right.

Last week: 11-3 (11-3 ACC)

Overall: 36-7 (36-7 ACC)