Hopefully, if you are reading this final 2016 installment of “Pick Your Spots” it means you are still in contention for your league title. If not and you are still trying to win every week, well you are the kind of owner I want to play with. If you are in a Roto League you still have two and a half weeks to try and clinch, but if you are hoping to move the pitching needles at this point in the season you better make EVERY start count. If you are in a H to H league this should be your championship week, making Sunday 9/18 D-Day. If your champ is decided the last two weeks of the regular season, I feel bad for you, and you could throw darts at the available pitchers as well as I could.

Writing about spot starting this season is the most fun I’ve had since I began writing about Fantasy Baseball many years ago. I learned so much along the way that I managed my own pitching, in all my leagues, far better than I ever had. It has been a challenge, often tedious, but what is more gratifying than predicting an outcome and then watching it happen as you imagined. After the first half I said my goal was to get my success rate up to 70% from 60%. After this coming week I’ll find out if I made it. I’m happy with that number considering what we are working with for pitchers in the less than 50% owned arena. Hopefully you did even better.

As I said at the beginning, if I helped one person this season either win a league or learn a new skill this was worth it. If not, I sure had fun and learned a lot myself. Thanks for reading this season, especially those of you who follow me, and we’ll hopefully do it again next year.

As for this season:

NOTE>> If this is your championship week, remember to keep a close eye on pitchers scheduled for Saturday or Sunday. A rain out, shut down pitcher, or strategic rotation shuffling could cause you to lose a start or gain an unpredicted start. The lost start can destroy you if you don’t have an alternate, but the extra start is just as important. It could put you over a limit with penalties or just be a bad match up that might scuttle the ratios you are trying to protect. Don’t snooze.

On a related note: Any rotation changes now could move up or back any SP on this list. Check your lineups every day. What you set today may change by Tuesday.

Two weeks ago I asked “Are you counting on Jose Fernandez for the next 4 weeks?” Sure enough the Marlins are talking about shutting the franchise pitcher down soon. You need to know about that if you are an owner clawing and scratching for a title. Some other pitchers in the same boat are Michael Fulmer, SP, DET who will likely top out at 180 innings or so after 124 last season, Sean Manaea, SP, OAK, Jameson Taillon, SP, PIT, Reynaldo Lopez, SP, WAS who has never thrown more than 100 innings in any pro season, Julio Urias, SP, LAD, Vince Velazquez, SP, PHI whose cap (Per our friend, and pitching guru, Scott Boras) is between 150-160, he has 131 now, and finally, every SP on the Mets not named Bartolo Colon. Those are just some of the potential shut downs. Here is a good reference: pitcherlist.com: The Mega Innings Shutdown Article

Trivia Question: What NL East starting pitcher, now owned in 84% of Fantrax Leagues, leads his team in Starts, Innings Pitched & Wins for the 2nd season in a row, and hit his first MLB HR in 2016? (Hint: It is not Max Scherzer, he has one less start than Tanner Roark) Answer Below.

Lets do it: I’ll pick my favorites from the under 50% owned group, and I’ll discuss their September availability as one of the factors to compare. If you want an opinion between any two or more email me at joseph.iannone021@gmail.com and I’ll give you my take. Or visit my thread on Reddit which is active all day Sunday on the fantasybaseball Sub Reddit. Percentages listed are from Fantrax, so an over 50% owned pitcher might make the list if they are lower in ESPN, CBS, etc.

SPOT STARTS: Yes we’re going conservative here. If you want flashier names wait till Spring. However there are a lot of choices this week, especially the two start variety.

MUST START/MUST PICK UP! Tom Koehler, SP, MIA (61.6% owned) @ PHI, FRI: Koehler is the consummate spot starter and a frequent flyer on both of my lists. Two weeks ago I recommended him. Last week I had him on my Do Not Start List against the Dodgers in Miami and he gave up 4 ER in 5 IP. This week he has a dream match up against the Phils in PA. This is a must pick up, must start across the board. The Phils are hitting .214 over the past 23 games, averaging 2.78 runs per game during that stretch. They hit .235 vs right handers and .222 at home for the season, and so far are hitting only .237 in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Koehler is capping what will surely be the best season of his mostly consistent career. His ERA for the 2nd half is 3.41 (3.29 since Aug 1). The best reason to start him though is that he has a 1.29 ERA in 4 starts vs the Phils (1.80 in Philly). He also wins for the season’s best family picture, he proposed to his wife at home plate before a game.

Koehler is the consummate spot starter and a frequent flyer on both of my lists. Two weeks ago I recommended him. Last week I had him on my Do Not Start List against the Dodgers in Miami and he gave up 4 ER in 5 IP. This week he has a dream match up against the Phils in PA. This is a must pick up, must start across the board. The Phils are hitting .214 over the past 23 games, averaging 2.78 runs per game during that stretch. They hit .235 vs right handers and .222 at home for the season, and so far are hitting only .237 in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Koehler is capping what will surely be the best season of his mostly consistent career. His ERA for the 2nd half is 3.41 (3.29 since Aug 1). The best reason to start him though is that he has a 1.29 ERA in 4 starts vs the Phils (1.80 in Philly). He also wins for the season’s best family picture, he proposed to his wife at home plate before a game. ***Two Starts***R.A. Dickey , SP, TOR (51% owned) Vs TB, MON & @ LAA, SAT: UPDATE > The Blue Jays announced this morning that Dickey’s Tuesday start vs TB would be skipped. Not sure if thart affects the SAT start in LAA . Sure, there may be more glamorous choices out there, but the time to wow your league-mates has long passed. Now it is time to win or go home, and you need some safety net. There is not much more conservative a pick if you need innings than Dickey. He is on a contender in a pennant race, he is not in danger of being shut down, and he will likely not hurt you much in any area. He’s only given up more than five ER four times this season, and never more than six. His August ERA was 3.41, and if you add in his one September start it would be just over 4.00. He also gets to dodge all the high powered AL East offenses this week with match-ups vs the light hitting Tampa Rays and LA Angels.

Sure, there may be more glamorous choices out there, but the time to wow your league-mates has long passed. Now it is time to win or go home, and you need some safety net. There is not much more conservative a pick if you need innings than Dickey. He is on a contender in a pennant race, he is not in danger of being shut down, and he will likely not hurt you much in any area. He’s only given up more than five ER four times this season, and never more than six. His August ERA was 3.41, and if you add in his one September start it would be just over 4.00. He also gets to dodge all the high powered AL East offenses this week with match-ups vs the light hitting Tampa Rays and LA Angels. Tyler Chatwood, SP, COL (55% owned) Vs SD, FRI: I recommended him last week in SD and he did not disappoint, giving up one run in 6.2 IP for a Win. In three starts vs SD this season he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Yes, this is in Colorado, but it is also Tyler Chatwood, and the Padres do not have a lot of power. He is not a dominating strikeout pitcher (16.1%K Rate, 6.2/9), and he also walks a few too many batters (10.4% BB Rate, 4.0/9), especially for a pitcher living in the mountains for 81 games. In fact his 1.50 K/BB ratio is absurdly bad for a pitcher who has already won 11 games in 2016. In 24 starts this season he has only given up five runs or more four times. His 3.94 ERA is well supported by a 4.26 FIP and a .287 Babip against. For you WAR buffs he is at 3.2 for the season so far. He has a minuscule 1.8% HR rate, mainly due to an obscene 1.37 GB/FB ratio.(Lg avg is .83) & an insane 1.82 GO/AO ratio (Lg Avg is 1.11). Not sustainable you say? His lifetime (5 years, almost 500 innings pitched) HR Rate is 2.1% and his lifetime GB/FB ratio is 1.18. (GO/AO 1.80 Lifetime) He has 12 Quality Starts so far and has pitched as well at home as on the road. The Padres are hitting a woeful .227 against right-handers this season, and also .227 away from Petco, and have batted a weak .214 as a team over the past month against all pitching. I will say that the Padres are hitting over .300 in six games at Coors this season, but that is against all Colorado pitching. They have not figured out Chatwood yet.

I recommended him last week in SD and he did not disappoint, giving up one run in 6.2 IP for a Win. In three starts vs SD this season he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Yes, this is in Colorado, but it is also Tyler Chatwood, and the Padres do not have a lot of power. He is not a dominating strikeout pitcher (16.1%K Rate, 6.2/9), and he also walks a few too many batters (10.4% BB Rate, 4.0/9), especially for a pitcher living in the mountains for 81 games. In fact his 1.50 K/BB ratio is absurdly bad for a pitcher who has already won 11 games in 2016. In 24 starts this season he has only given up five runs or more four times. His 3.94 ERA is well supported by a 4.26 FIP and a .287 Babip against. For you WAR buffs he is at 3.2 for the season so far. He has a minuscule 1.8% HR rate, mainly due to an obscene 1.37 GB/FB ratio.(Lg avg is .83) & an insane 1.82 GO/AO ratio (Lg Avg is 1.11). Not sustainable you say? His lifetime (5 years, almost 500 innings pitched) HR Rate is 2.1% and his lifetime GB/FB ratio is 1.18. (GO/AO 1.80 Lifetime) He has 12 Quality Starts so far and has pitched as well at home as on the road. The Padres are hitting a woeful .227 against right-handers this season, and also .227 away from Petco, and have batted a weak .214 as a team over the past month against all pitching. I will say that the Padres are hitting over .300 in six games at Coors this season, but that is against all Colorado pitching. They have not figured out Chatwood yet. ***Two Starts*** Tyler Anderson, SP, COL (64 % owned, why is he still free in 36% of leagues) @ AZ, MON: This 26 year old lefty would be one of my favorites for ROY if he had more than 16 starts through today. His 2 start designation is in red because he is playing in Arizona (hitting .227 over the past 2 weeks) Monday, and depending on what service you believe is starting home vs SD on Sunday. Some services list Chad Bettis for Sunday and they have been using the six man rotation of late. Like I’ve been saying for weeks, don’t box yourself into a corner on the Sunday of your Championship Week. If you need a start next Sunday and are not sure he is pitching, find an alternate or plan B, and don’t wait until Saturday to do it. Anderson has fashioned a 3.35 ERA (3.16 the past month)and 1.200 WHIP supported by an FIP of 3.69 & a .303 Babip. He has done this with a sparkling 1.20 GB/FB rate, 23% line drive rate where the league average is 26%, and a 2.7% HR rate. (1.0 per 9 IP). Those numbers and his 7.8/2.2 K/BB are stellar for a rookie, especially one who play half his games at Coors. You might think most of those starts must have been on the road, but in fact 11 of his 16 starts are at home where he has a 3.04 ERA and has given up 7 HR in 71 Innings Pitched. Could the wheels fall off when he wakes up next Spring? Sure, but all we care about is next week.

This 26 year old lefty would be one of my favorites for ROY if he had more than 16 starts through today. His 2 start designation is in red because he is playing in Arizona (hitting .227 over the past 2 weeks) Monday, and depending on what service you believe is starting home vs SD on Sunday. Some services list Chad Bettis for Sunday and they have been using the six man rotation of late. Like I’ve been saying for weeks, don’t box yourself into a corner on the Sunday of your Championship Week. If you need a start next Sunday and are not sure he is pitching, find an alternate or plan B, and don’t wait until Saturday to do it. Anderson has fashioned a 3.35 ERA (3.16 the past month)and 1.200 WHIP supported by an FIP of 3.69 & a .303 Babip. He has done this with a sparkling 1.20 GB/FB rate, 23% line drive rate where the league average is 26%, and a 2.7% HR rate. (1.0 per 9 IP). Those numbers and his 7.8/2.2 K/BB are stellar for a rookie, especially one who play half his games at Coors. You might think most of those starts must have been on the road, but in fact 11 of his 16 starts are at home where he has a 3.04 ERA and has given up 7 HR in 71 Innings Pitched. Could the wheels fall off when he wakes up next Spring? Sure, but all we care about is next week. ***Two Starts*** Matt Boyd, SP, DET (44% owned) Vs MIN, MON & (TBA) @ CLE, SAT: Boyd is on a roll as 4 of his last 5 starts are QS in which he has 2.32 ERA. This choice is more about how he is pitching than his match up with the Twins who

are fairly neutral when it comes to the major splits. There is some risk, as Boyd’s 3.89 ERA is backed up by a 4.62 FIP and a .276 Babip, so he may be pitching over his head, though he does have a nice 7.7/2.8 K/BB. His main Achilles is a very low GB/FB rate helping lead to a 4% HR rate which could hurt him at home. Some services list him as the SP Saturday in Cleveland and some list it as TBA, but that would be his turn. Again, don’t put all your eggs in that 2nd start, especially if the Indians have not clinched yet and are still all in.

Boyd is on a roll as 4 of his last 5 starts are QS in which he has 2.32 ERA. This choice is more about how he is pitching than his match up with the Twins who are fairly neutral when it comes to the major splits. There is some risk, as Boyd’s 3.89 ERA is backed up by a 4.62 FIP and a .276 Babip, so he may be pitching over his head, though he does have a nice 7.7/2.8 K/BB. His main Achilles is a very low GB/FB rate helping lead to a 4% HR rate which could hurt him at home. Some services list him as the SP Saturday in Cleveland and some list it as TBA, but that would be his turn. Again, don’t put all your eggs in that 2nd start, especially if the Indians have not clinched yet and are still all in. ***Two Starts***Miguel Gonzalez, SP, CHW (25.2% owned) Vs CLE, MON & @ KC, SAT): Like Tom Koehler, Miguel is enjoying what will likely shake out as his best season to date, and that at the age of 32. I admit I’m late to this party, but if you need 2 starts this week, and he is out there, jump on. His 3.81 ERA & 1.307 WHIP are decent enough to keep a job in the AL even if not on your roster, and are supported by a 3.85 FIP & .300 Babip. His 6.8/2.7 K/BB is one reason he will always be on the wire for you, again good enough for the AL but not ownable. His peripherals are amazingly consistent, so why the better results in 2016? His GB/FB rate is mostly unchanged, but his HR rate of 2.2% is down from a lifetime 3.5% in 4 seasons in Baltimore. His HR/FB rate of 5.7 is half of what it was in Baltimore. Coincidence? Probably not. He gets a Cleveland team who is hitting only .237 (4.05 Runs per game) away from the Lake (where they are averaging 5.75 runs per game) & only .238 in Chicago. They are hitting about 10 points less vs righties than lefties and hitting .242 the past week. The Royals as a team have gotten hot, but they only hit .249 in August and are hitting 15 points worse vs righties than lefties.

Like Tom Koehler, Miguel is enjoying what will likely shake out as his best season to date, and that at the age of 32. I admit I’m late to this party, but if you need 2 starts this week, and he is out there, jump on. His 3.81 ERA & 1.307 WHIP are decent enough to keep a job in the AL even if not on your roster, and are supported by a 3.85 FIP & .300 Babip. His 6.8/2.7 K/BB is one reason he will always be on the wire for you, again good enough for the AL but not ownable. His peripherals are amazingly consistent, so why the better results in 2016? His GB/FB rate is mostly unchanged, but his HR rate of 2.2% is down from a lifetime 3.5% in 4 seasons in Baltimore. His HR/FB rate of 5.7 is half of what it was in Baltimore. Coincidence? Probably not. He gets a Cleveland team who is hitting only .237 (4.05 Runs per game) away from the Lake (where they are averaging 5.75 runs per game) & only .238 in Chicago. They are hitting about 10 points less vs righties than lefties and hitting .242 the past week. The Royals as a team have gotten hot, but they only hit .249 in August and are hitting 15 points worse vs righties than lefties. ***Two Starts*** Jose Urena, SP, MIA (15.8% owned) @ ATL, MON & @ PHI, SUN: . Urena keeps on spitting out Quality Starts with nothing more than Major League replacement level peripherals.He has two great match ups next week. The Philly start is a must start. See Tom Koehler up above. Not For the Faint of Heart: Every one of these guys has at least one primo match up. Update: The Marlins moved Urena up to start today (Sunday) VS LAD, His Sunday start vs PHI was changed to Saturday as well

Matt Garza, SP, MIL (21% owned) @ CIN, TUE: His last two starts were Quality Starts and he has only given up two earned runs in his last 18 innings pitched.

His last two starts were Quality Starts and he has only given up two earned runs in his last 18 innings pitched. Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL (53.2% owned) Vs MIA, TUE: Three QS in a row and 19 K’s in 19 IP. Still a work in progress but shows dominance at times.

Three QS in a row and 19 K’s in 19 IP. Still a work in progress but shows dominance at times. ***Two Start Pitcher***Dillon Gee, SP KC (22% owned) Vs OAK, TUE & Vs CHW, SUN: Yes, he is still Dillon Gee but has QS in 3 of last 4 starts and only 3 walks in last 32 innings pitched.

Yes, he is still Dillon Gee but has QS in 3 of last 4 starts and only 3 walks in last 32 innings pitched. Chad Kuhl, SP, PIT (38.9% owned) @ PHI, THU : He had some trouble against the Cards last week, giving up 2 ER on 4 H and 3 BB in only two innings, but as long as he is healthy he has a good match up this week in Philly. Five of his prior six starts had been Quality Starts.

He had some trouble against the Cards last week, giving up 2 ER on 4 H and 3 BB in only two innings, but as long as he is healthy he has a good match up this week in Philly. Five of his prior six starts had been Quality Starts. Derrek Holland, SP, TEX (52% owned) @ HOU, TUE: Three QS in first three starts after DL but then got hit around by Seattle. Tread carefully.

Three QS in first three starts after DL but then got hit around by Seattle. Tread carefully. Chad Bettis, SP, COL (48.5% owned) Vs SD, SUN : This may or may not happen depending on scheduling. His last start was a 9 inning 2 hit shutout Vs SF at Colorado.

: This may or may not happen depending on scheduling. His last start was a 9 inning 2 hit shutout Vs SF at Colorado. Luke Weaver, SP, STL (53% owned) @ SF, FRI: Went from 31% to 53% owned since last week. Make sure they don’t talk about innings limits cutting him short.

Went from 31% to 53% owned since last week. Make sure they don’t talk about innings limits cutting him short. Clayton Richard, SP, SD (10.3% owned) @ SF, TUE: In 5 starts since joining rotation he has given up 3 runs in 30 innings pitched with 23 K’s. The only HR were 2 solo shots in his first game.

In 5 starts since joining rotation he has given up 3 runs in 30 innings pitched with 23 K’s. The only HR were 2 solo shots in his first game. Andrew Cashner, SP, MIA (45.2% owned) @ ATL, TUE: Still getting his sea legs under him but manhandled the Phils last time out with no runs and 9 K’s in 5.1 IP. Should be fine against the Braves.

Still getting his sea legs under him but manhandled the Phils last time out with no runs and 9 K’s in 5.1 IP. Should be fine against the Braves. ***Two Starts***Matt Wisler, SP, ATL (38.6% owned) Vs MIA, MON & VS WAS, SUN: Two QS in a row totaling 2 runs. Struck out 10 Vs SD in last start. Says he is ok after side discomfort but check on TUE.

Trivia Question Answer: Senor Colon (Durability IS a skill set, esp this time of year)

NOTE: Teammate Noah Syndergaard does have 2 more innings pitched but this is my quiz so I’ll make an exception.

DO NOT START:

Alex Cobb, SP, TB (% owned) @ TOR, WED: He pitched well vs TOR at home in his 1st start back. Do you want to push your luck in Toronto?

He pitched well vs TOR at home in his 1st start back. Do you want to push your luck in Toronto? Matt Andriese, SP, TB (41% owned) @ BAL, SAT : He was a Do Not Start last week and sure enough gave up 7 runs against these same Orioles in Tampa. And do we think he’ll do better against them in Baltimore?

He was a Do Not Start last week and sure enough gave up 7 runs against these same Orioles in Tampa. And do we think he’ll do better against them in Baltimore? Kendal Graveman, SP, OAK (61%owned) @ TEX, FRI: Graveman has become a roller coaster ride, alternating shutout ball with clunker ball every other week. How does an extreme ground baller (2.35 GB/FB rate) give up so many HR(1.2HR/9IP) Texas is not the place to do research on that if you are in contention for your league.

Graveman has become a roller coaster ride, alternating shutout ball with clunker ball every other week. How does an extreme ground baller (2.35 GB/FB rate) give up so many HR(1.2HR/9IP) Texas is not the place to do research on that if you are in contention for your league. Luis Cessa, SP, NYY (28% owned)@ BOS, FRI: Cessa’s ownership has soared from almost nothing to 28% (including many of my teams) in a few weeks, and rightly so as he was nails against Baltimore, Kansas City and Toronto. At Boston during a pennant race – I’m not saying he won’t do well, but if your season is riding on it there are less volatile chances you could take in what could be one of your most important starts of the season.

Cessa’s ownership has soared from almost nothing to 28% (including many of my teams) in a few weeks, and rightly so as he was nails against Baltimore, Kansas City and Toronto. At Boston during a pennant race – I’m not saying he won’t do well, but if your season is riding on it there are less volatile chances you could take in what could be one of your most important starts of the season. ***Two Starts***Bryan Mitchell, SP, NYY (7% owned)Vs LAD, MON @ BOS, SAT : Interesting pitcher if you are a Yankee fan, and he did well in his first start against Toronto the other day. But in Boston, in late September, I’ll pass.

: Interesting pitcher if you are a Yankee fan, and he did well in his first start against Toronto the other day. But in Boston, in late September, I’ll pass. ***Two Starts***CC Sabathia, SP, NYY (52% owned)Vs LAD, TUE @ BOS, SUN: If this were June I might start CC there as he has pitched some gems in Boston. But, next Sunday may be the day that decides your league championship. Do you want CC, in Boston during a pennant race to be your last hope?

Closer Merry-Go-Round: See you next season.

*”CLEW” = Closer En Waiting

** IRS + H = Inherited Runners stranded plus Holds

See you next YEAR. Thanks for reading.

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