6 crises that could spoil Europe’s summer

From Italy’s beaches to the Himalayas, here are the problems that could force politicians out of the pool.

A Ukrainian serviceman walks through the rubble of a destroyed building in Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region earlier this year | Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images

August is supposed to be a dull month for European politics, thanks to the long summer holidays enjoyed by many on the Continent. It rarely works out that way.

Political crises, armed conflicts and financial fires have a habit of ignoring the holiday schedules of European politicians.

When Greece tipped toward default in 2015, European leaders managed to tidy up the crisis in time to head for the beach. They couldn’t do the same for the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, Russia’s 2008 incursion into Georgia, or the early economic wobbles in August 2008 that would eventually become a full-blown financial crisis.

This year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is tempting fate by putting her election campaign (and, effectively, others’) on hold by taking a three-week hiking holiday. (Voting takes place September 24.) European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker plans to take off all of August, as he does each year. Meanwhile, the European Parliament is literally shuttered, with its president, Antonio Tajani, having told the Commission not to bother getting in touch until September. In other words, if a crisis blows up in the coming weeks, expect Europe’s leaders to hit the phones rather than assemble in Brussels.

POLITICO has assembled a list of six crises that could require poolside attention.

Poland

The situation: The Commission has already laid the groundwork for sanctioning Poland if the government moves forward with reforms the EU believes would undermine the independence of the country’s judiciary while the rest of the world is hiking, sailing or tanning.

Why it matters: EU officials no longer trust the government in Warsaw, and the judicial power grab is the latest line Brussels has drawn in the sunbaked sand.

What could happen: The Polish government moves to overrule or work around President Andrzej Duda’s veto of two controversial laws that would have given it control of the Supreme Court and allowed it to handpick the country’s judges. Or massive street protests are met with increasing punitive measures, or even force. In any of these scenarios the chances of the EU taking action increase dramatically.

The Brussels angle: Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans said Wednesday that the Commission was ready to trigger “Article 7,” the first step toward the “nuclear option” of suspending Poland’s voting rights.

Italy

The situation: For the third summer in a row, hundreds of thousands of migrants are expected to land in Europe from the Middle East and Africa. The EU has struck bargains with Turkey, Afghanistan and several African states to reduce immigration inflows or allow for new arrivals to be sent back to where they came from. And yet, the boats continue to arrive — particularly in Italy.

Why it matters: Migration is the most explosive political issue in Europe. It has the potential to sink governments and upend election campaigns in Germany and Austria.

What could happen: Another high-profile mass drowning or a deadly terrorist attack attributed to a recent arrival could inject fresh fuel into the already charged debate. The civil war in Syria could take an even nastier turn or Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could decide to escalate his faceoff with Berlin by cancelling his end of the refugee deal with the EU, risking a repeat of 2015 when more than a million migrants traveled through the Balkans to Germany and beyond.

The Brussels angle: The EU is paying it forward. Juncker has promised an extra €100 million to Italy and more EU staff to help them cope with the extra summer arrivals. Ministers also agreed to extend Operation Sophia, the EU effort combatting human and arms trafficking in the central Mediterranean until the end of 2018.

London

The situation: Theresa May’s parliamentary majority is on the verge of evaporating in the summer heat. The British prime minister is clinging to power thanks to a deal with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party. That spells trouble: If the 15 or so MPs who have told journalists they are willing to sign a letter of no confidence in her government decide to dig in their heels, she could be out.

Why it matters: If the prime minister changes so does the trajectory of Brexit — the country’s most complex peacetime political task since the winding up of the British empire.

What could happen: Under Conservative Party rules, it takes 48 MPs to force a vote on a change in leadership. That’s unlikely to happen in August; unless there’s an emergency such as a war, parliament will not be in session. But May can be weakened by the constant drip of leaks and attacks by MPs and ministers, crippling her ability to govern ahead of the Conservative Party conference in September.

The Brussels angle: The British tabloids will make for great beach reading. EU officials want a stable British government it can negotiate with, but there’s little sympathy for the Conservative Party and its habit of turning its internal fights into problems on the other side of the Channel.

Catalonia

The situation: Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia, has spent the last few months on a high-speed collision course with the Spanish state. He has said that “nothing will stop us” from holding an independence referendum on October 1 — a move the government in Madrid considers illegal.

Why it matters: One of Madrid’s responses to Catalan politicians calling for independence is to take them to court. Threatening people with jail time for asking for a vote is not a good look in a Continent that prides itself on its human rights record.

What could happen: Catalan officials are unlikely to back down — and neither is Madrid. Expect the war of words — and lawyers — to heat up as the mercury rises and the day of the vote gets closer, including mass street demonstrations of independence supporters and the possibility of armed forces on the streets.

The Brussels angle: The European Commission goes out of its way not to comment on the Catalonia issue, because any word it utters gets blown out of proportion by whichever of the two sides it offends. But what happens in Catalonia will be watched carefully across the bloc, including by the Flemish in Belgium, the Scots in the U.K. and Basques and other nationalists in Spain.

Ukraine

The situation: Fighting in Ukraine is at its deadliest levels in 2017. With France and Germany having been unable to get Russia to comply with the Minsk Agreement, Russia-backed and Russia-supporting rebels in eastern Ukraine have declared independence from Kiev.

Why it matters: That means the biggest barrier left to Russian President Vladimir Putin getting his way in eastern Ukraine as he did in Crimea is the U.S. military and administration — and it’s anybody’s guess what that might mean.

What could happen: The White House is reviewing a plan to provide arms to the Ukrainian government, the new U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker said Tuesday. That could mean a rapid escalation of the so-far-mostly-dormant conflict. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump signaled frustration with Kiev when he tweeted the same day, “Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump campaign – ‘quietly working to boost Clinton.’ So where is the investigation A.G.”

The Brussels angle: A flare-up in Ukraine is the one thing that would force officials to cancel their summer holidays. The EU’s fruitless response to Russia’s annexation of Ukraine and its unheeded attempts to stop the fighting have already undercut its claims of being an effective broker. Nonetheless, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is a frequent visitor to Brussels and will immediately turn to the EU for help if the violence ramps up.

The Himalayas

The situation: Beijing and New Delhi have launched a war of words over a disputed territory on the Doklam Plateau in the Himalayas, which is claimed by China and Bhutan. And lately, they’ve been talking about going kinetic. This week China warned India, which is backing Bhutan in the dispute, that it is willing to defend the territory “at all costs.” The government-owned Global Times wrote “India will suffer greater losses than in 1962 if it incites military conflicts.”

Why it matters: China and India are both nuclear-powered states, and increasingly they have become geopolitical rivals. Neither side would benefit from a conflict, but nor would it be easy for either of them to back down.

What could happen: The two sides have already gone to war once, in 1962 over another patch of disputed Himalayan border. Another armed conflict cannot be excluded.

The Brussels angle: (Very) concerned bystander.

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