Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith may have won the primary for a vacant Los Angeles-area congressional seat, but that victory isn’t getting much respect.

On Thursday, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that tracks House, Senate and gubernatorial races across the country, moved the 25th Congressional District contest from its “Likely Democrat” category to “Leans Democrat,” which indicates the race is in play.

Smith, a resident of Santa Clarita (Los Angeles County), holds a 32% to 24% lead over GOP businessman Mike Garcia in the primary for the Nov. 3 election and a wider 36% to 25% margin in the contest to serve out the remaining term of former Rep. Katie Hill, who resigned last year after admitting to a sexual relationship with a campaign staffer. Votes from the March 3 election are still being counted.

But Smith is facing problems in a district that was solidly Republican until Hill beat GOP Rep. Steve Knight in 2018.

While Smith finished on top in the primary, GOP candidates currently have just under half the votes counted. Since no one received a majority in the contest to finish Hill’s term, she also faces a May 12 runoff with Garcia, an election that could provide an early look at Democratic chances in November.

That May election, with only the runoff on the ballot, was going to be a low-turnout affair even before the coronavirus virtually shut down public life in California. And history shows Republicans are better than Democrats at turning out their voters in low-interest contests.

Discussions by local election officials about eliminating all polling places and turning the runoff into a mail-only election only adds more uncertainty.

“You have to go all the way back to 1998 to find the last time Republicans picked up a House seat in California,” the Cook Political Report noted. “But Democrats are increasingly worried about their prospects in the May 12 special election.”

Democratic political types in California and in Washington won’t go on the record, but they are concerned that Garcia could finish on top in the runoff. They remain confident that the much larger turnout in November will ultimately keep the seat in Democratic hands.

But right now, Smith has more immediate concerns.

“I am currently focused on my work as a state legislator, ensuring state response to my local constituents and connecting people with essential information, services, and resources,” she said in an email. “ I will leave election decisions to our state public health and elections officials, knowing that the top priority they will consider is what is in the best interest of public health.”

John Wildermuth is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @jfwildermuth