The number of patients with confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario ICUs continued to grow over the past week, but at a slower daily growth rate than the week before, according to provincial data.

Experts say that’s a good sign but warn that it’s too early to tell what effect social distancing and other measures are having.

The data, distributed to hospitals across the province by Critical Care Services Ontario, a provincial agency set up to help the health-care system better manage critical-care resources, shows that between March 30 and April 5, the number of patients with COVID-19 in intensive-care units across the province grew at an average daily rate of 12.1 per cent. The week before that, the average daily growth rate was 43.4 per cent. As of Sunday, there were a total of 216 patients with COVID-19 in ICUs across the province, according to the data.

“What we’re seeing in the ICU is the tip of the iceberg. It’s what we call a lagging indicator, which means it’s like these are infections that happened weeks ago,” said Dr. Jeff Kwong, a family doctor and an epidemiologist at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at U of T. He noted that some people who were infected were bound to become severely ill; now, they are showing up at hospitals.

“The question is, how many more of these people are out there that are destined to end up in the ICU that just haven’t shown up yet?”

The April 5 data, which is not released publicly but shared online by some doctors and with The Star, shows the number of ventilators in critical-care units has increased nearly 50 per cent from the end of March. There are now nearly 2,000 beds with ventilators, up from about 1,300 last week.

“The province is hard at work to add even more capacity in anticipation of increased hospitalizations that require admission to ICU. This work will continue over the coming days and weeks, as Ontario receives more of the ventilators ordered and prepares for the expected peak in demand,” said Hayley Chazan, a spokesperson for Health Minister Christine Elliott.

She noted that while the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in ICUs has for several days trended below the “best case” modelling by the province, officials are preparing for these numbers to increase.

“To that end, it remains as critical as ever that Ontarians continue to heed the advice of public health officials to stay at home and avoid close contact with others.”

On Friday provincial health officials warned that there could be as many as 1,600 deaths from COVID-19 in Ontario by the end of April if more stringent measures aren’t taken to reduce the spread of the virus. Models released by the province’s COVID-19 Command Table show that death number could be reduced to 200 if “full future interventions” are taken. The projections also show that even in a best-case scenario, the province will need another 900 ICU beds before the end of the month to meet demand.

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“Everybody should take reassurance from the fact that our public health measures so far have made a significant difference and we need everyone to stay focused in the weeks ahead,” said Dr. Peter Donnelly, president and CEO of Public Health Ontario, at a press conference where the projections were revealed Friday. “So stay home, stop the spread and stay safe.”

Dr. Anna Banerji, a communicable-disease expert and professor at the Dalla Lana School, said it is “too early to see the trend” of whether social distancing is working, even with a decreased growth rate in the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs.

She warned that if social distancing measures are loosened too soon, the growth rate of the number of people with the virus in ICUs could increase again.

“What is it going to be like when we stop the physical distancing … or as the weather gets better, as more people get restless and more people want to go out to the park or beach?” Banerji said. “When you have a whole population of people who are not immune, the virus can spread. That is why it’s important to keep the physical distancing in place for now.”