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Because of the difference in populations, it takes significant transfers from the smaller, richer provinces in order to have a material per capita impact on the more populated poorer regions. Meanwhile the larger, poorer regions (in Canada’s case, Quebec in particular) can control through their political voting power the size of the transfers they wish to extract from the smaller, richer region. In these arrangements, conflict arises when the smaller, richer region feels as if the benefits from being part of a federation are outweighed by the cost of serving as a largely powerless cash cow.

This could feasibly become the case for Alberta, which is called on to provide other provinces with massive wealth transfers, even as other provinces have worked to hurt Alberta’s economy both through past policies — such as the National Energy Program — and recent ones, such as B.C. and Quebec’s opposition to allowing Alberta oil to be transported for export through their provinces. Even with the federal commitment to building the Trans Mountain pipeline (while B.C. attempts to block it and Alberta considers retaliatory measures against B.C.), Alberta as well as Saskatchewan feel their prosperity is being existentially threatened. Investment is stymied by stifling federal policies, including cumbersome regulatory processes, clean fuel standards and looming tanker bans.

Unfortunately Canada, notably, lacks formal institutions that provide small regions like Alberta with proper federal representation, such as an elected and powerful Senate, as exists in the U.S. and Australia. But several actions taken by both federal and provincial governments could still help avoid a looming constitutional crisis arising from conflict of claim. Much of the accommodation will need to occur using federal-provincial co-ordination mechanisms.