38 Pages Posted: 26 Feb 2020 Last revised: 18 Mar 2020

Date Written: February 25, 2020

Abstract

可以發現，中國版本的這篇文章：http://ssrn.com/abstract=3555938.



To understand great disparities in disease outcomes between CIVID-19 patients, we explore infection and host responses in kinetics. From existing data, we deduced a model that the lungs are damaged by rapidly rising flow resistance as a result of retaining white blood cells in lung tissues. The retention of white blood cells is initially triggered viral infection but aggravated by injuries caused by low temperature. Lungs are initially damaged by fluid leakage, rapidly followed by extruding blood into alveolar spaces. The step of blood extruding is predicted to take place in a very short time. Our simulations show that as little as 0.1% retention of white blood cells in the lungs can lead to their failure in 5 to 10 days. The small degrees of imbalance implies that this imbalance could be corrected by a large number of factors that are known to reduce flow resistance. The model implies that the top priority is maintaining blood micro-circulation and preserving organ functions in the entire disease course, especially after the virus has spread the whole lungs. From exploring a large number of hypothetical infection modes, we propose preventive, mitigating and treatment strategies for ultimately ending the pandemic. The first strategy is avoiding exposures that could result in widespread damages to lungs and taking post exposure mitigating measures that would reduce disease severity. The second strategy is reducing death rate and disability rate from the current levels to one tenth for infected patients by using multiple factors health optimization method. The double reduction strategies are expected to generate a series of chain reactions that favor mitigating or ending the pandemic. Some reactions include a big reduction of the amount of viral discharges from infected patients into the air, the avoidance of panic, chronic stress and emotional distress, and cross-infections which are expected in quarantines. The double reductions would have a final effect of ending the pandemic.





Funding: The author(s) declared that no grants were used in support of this research project.



Declaration of Interest: None.