Why you’re wrong about how the Wallabies and Lions will play

Here’s the script: Warren Gatland is bringing a “Wales plus others” British and Irish Lions side to Australia to play “slabs of meat” style conservative kick & crash rugby. Robbie Deans’ Wallabies will counter this by using the oodles of x-factor talent just falling out of Australian rugby to deliver the “smart, creative running rugby” that Bill Pulver has demanded, to win the Lions series in style.

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

How do we know this? Well it’s obvious if you look, and with the help of Scott Allen – who will be serving you up the evidence over the coming weeks – let us show you how.

A DINGO DOESN’T CHANGE HIS SPOTS

Maybe it’s because the recent success of Australian Super Rugby teams has been based around attacking playmakers like Quade Cooper and Christian Lealiifano that supporters and pundits refuse to believe that the Wallabies will return to their defence-led gamplan that delivered just one try per test last year. Just this weekend, Matt Burke wrote about a Wallaby backline with Cooper and Lealiifano at 10 and 12 respectively. Eddie Jones expects Quade Cooper.

It must be wilful blindness, because Robbie Deans could not have been clearer – according to his plans, these two players will not play against the Lions.

For a start, Cooper isn’t even in the squad. FACT.

Forget this rubbish about the “Logistics camp” not being final, we now know that the Wallabies discussed gameplans and strategies over those days. This is the exact meeting you would have to have your fly-half at. Deans’ media is now briefing that Cooper will be looked at when he plays for Queensland against the Lions. Can you imagine him being given the key Wallaby playmaker role then, with just two weeks to go before the first test?

As for what gameplan Deans feels works, here’s what he said to Brett McKay after the Wallabies’ tight series win against Wales series last year, as they moved into the Rugby Championship:

“There was a lot of discussion around Pat McCabe last year; well, our attack in the Tri-Nations was the best it’d been in ten years, and it was superior to the All Black and Springboks and hence we won the title.” “Some of the viewing public prefer the visible ‘X-factor’ stuff but it’s a team game and that doesn’t cut it against teams of substance.” “If you recall the fixture at Eden Park [the first Bledisloe Test of 2011; Cooper played 10, O’Connor on the wing, Beale at the back], we didn’t stick to the script and we played very laterally, we kept going to the edges, and we disrespected our opponent so that ‘play, play, play’ mentality and approach doesn’t cut it. So you’ve got to have blokes who ask of the defence, you’ve got to engage them and you’ve got to ask enough of them to sap them in order to profit.”

Here’s what Deans said recently on Rugby HQ:

“The Lions series is going to be brutal – it’s going to be a war of attrition.” “You’ve got to have people working hard, asking of your opposition, being physical on every occasion when you meet them, making their momentum as difficult as possible and then creating momentum yourself when you have the ball.”

Deans has only left Pat McCabe out of the Wallaby line-up since 2011 because of injury. As Inside Centre he will be teamed with either James O’Connor or Berrick Barnes at 10. Their jobs will be to take/crash the ball to the line, hit the deck and recycle for a Timani-style lump to take the next hit up. Repeat ad nauseam, or until the opposition concede a penalty (see last year’s tapes).

What about Bill Pulver’s demand “smart, creative, attacking running rugby”? Quite simply, Deans won’t care. It’s clear how Deans thinks he can win international rugby matches. He either beats the Lions with it and keeps his job to 2015, or uses it to get his next gig. Those employers won’t give a stuff what kind of rugby the Wallabies played, as long as they won.

GATLAND’S BLUFF

The other assumption that’s being made is that this Lions team will deliver a slightly tougher version of what Wales dished up to the Wallabies last year – big on bash and barge, low on penetration. It’s a pretty key assumption, as Robbie Deans’ plans revolve around being able to control it.

Is this a reasonable expectation, or should we maybe look to another team’s style?

Look at this photo of the 2009 Lions coaching staff (and captain):

Gatland, Howley and Rowntree are all on the 2013 staff. The 2009 Lions scored seven tries in three matches against the World Champion South Africans. At times they played with breathtaking pace and the centre pairing of Roberts and O’Driscoll was anything but pedestrian.

Scott Allen will give you more detail on this over the coming weeks, but based on what Gatland and his men almost achieved with a remarkably similar cohort of players in 2009, why wouldn’t we expect to see elements of this again?

Through the mind games, Warren is already pushing Robbie in a direction that suggests he wants Deans to expect a “brutal war of attrition”. By highlighting the talents of Quade Cooper and George Smith, he entrenches Deans further into sticking with his conservative selections. Two and a half tries to one per match will suit Gatland just fine.

What’s fascinating is that this is history repeating itself. The 2001 Wallabies will tell you that they underestimated the Lions attacking capability when they were rolled four tries to two in the opening test. That World Cup-winning team had the ability to adapt its game in time to take a dramatic series win. Will this team?