When ol’ boy starts to fly, like a blur speeding by, that’s Amari….

When the world sees you shine and make Eagles DBs whine, that’s Amari…

Is Amari Cooper one of the best wide receivers in the NFL? That’s the fundamental ask when it comes to how many quarters the Dallas Cowboys are going to have to dig out from the couch cushions to ink their new No. 1 receiver to an extension.

Was Cooper Worth The Trade?

On the surface, the answer is yes.

The Cowboys acquired him and then their offensive production ramped up. Everyone could see the improved level of confidence in quarterback Dak Prescott, and Dallas went on to win seven of nine regular-season games with him after only winning three of seven before him. Cooper, a change of offensive line coach and added experience for younger guys were the only differences.

Below the surface, there is more to consider, though.

Draft picks are overvalued in most circles, but there is still one irrevocable tenet. It is the best way to gain high-level, retail production for wholesale prices.

First-round rookies come with 80 potential games (16 games, five seasons) of extreme value for low costs. For a team with the Cowboys’ track record, it’s even less a lottery than what franchises are gambling with.

Seven of Dallas’ last nine first-rounders have been named to AP All-Pro teams; the highest honor for excellence at a given position. When in their hands, Dallas’ first-round picks are appreciably more valuable than every other team’s.

The Cowboys traded one away for talent they believed was still present in Cooper, but for only 25 games of it. In any light, those 55 games of cheap labor is a serious sacrifice, and that’s without acknowledging the fact Dallas is having the new deal conversation right now, after just nine games.

Cooper’s $13.9 million 2019 salary is a huge cap hit, and working out a long-term deal now instead of later helps the team stock more talent right now as it will likely bring down his cap hold.

When the Cowboys acquired Cooper, two things were clear.

One, Dallas was desperate, giving away a first-round pick for a year-and-a-half rental player. Two, it was going to have to sign him to an extension no matter what, based on the price paid. Many observers, myself included, did not think Cooper was worth a first based on talent alone. After two Pro Bowl seasons, he was struggling in Oakland and there was talk about his attitude and effort.

The idea Dallas traded a first for him was acceptable, because of how putrid the team and specifically their offense was.

The Cowboys misstepped in the offseason. They swung and missed (thankfully) in trying to acquire Sammy Watkins in free agency, coming up short on their offer of $15 million per season (more on that later). They then absolutely fumbled the Dez Bryant situation a week before the draft. When Jason Witten shocked the world and retired a week later after the first round, the team had egg on their face.

Despite declining skill level, Bryant and Witten were fixtures for young quarterback Dak Prescott. The front office tried to sell the idea the team was better off not having those veterans demanding targets from their QB, but it was a total load of bull.

The Cowboys weren’t prepared for the season, planning to have diminutive slot demon Cole Beasley playing on the outside and giving Tavon Austin 24 touches a game. It was a snow job by the brass and Dallas paid for it in losses and an erosion of public confidence in its QB.

They did that and they had to own it. It wasn’t on purpose, but their choices contributed heavily to the result. So they were implored with having to find a way to fix it, and Oakland’s season-long fire sale was the elixir Dallas desperately needed.

And it worked.

Regardless of whatever the overall picture is, for the snapshot of the 2018 season, trading away a future lottery ticket for immediate help was worth it.

Evaluating Cooper’s Worth

If Cooper’s stats and circumstances frame him as on par with the league’s best, then he deserves to be paid as among the league’s best. But do they?

On the surface, the answer is no.

Here’s a look at Cooper’s reception, yardage and touchdown ranks over his four-year career.

Amari Cooper Year-by-Year NFL Ranks Season Recs Yards TDs Yds/Rec DVOA 2015 33rd 20th 29th(tied) 27th 50th 2016 17th 8th 36th(t) 28th 28th 2017 48th 52nd 19th(t) 29th 68th 2018 27th 21st 16th(t) 40th 27th

On the surface, the answer is clearly no.

Out of the four standard categories, Cooper found himself inside the top 10 just once out of 16 opportunities, in the top 20 just five times total.

Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) is a Football Outsiders proprietary metric that considers raw numbers within the contexts of opponent strength and game situation. It’s a worthwhile effort to quantify the true worth of a player. Cooper never ranked above 27th.

Along these lines, he doesn’t have much of an argument to be paid alongside the likes of Odell Beckham, Jr., Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and the forthcoming Julio Jones new deal.

Yeah, but all stats aren’t created equal

The standard and clearly viable response to Cooper falling short in these comparisons is that he doesn’t see nearly the level of opportunities as these other players do. Cooper saw just 107 targets last season, and his career high was 132 in 2016.

His 76 targets with Dallas through nine games puts him right on pace with that high.

The other guys are routinely seeing between 150 and 180 targets a season, with Jones getting an obnoxious 203 once. In an exclusive interview with our Catch This Fade podcast, Cooper spoke to this:

“I think that’s something you have to earn. For example, when I first got to the Cowboys I was catching a lot of passes on third down, and we were converting, moving the chains. So on third downs, they started throwing me the ball more. It’s the same way with the targets.

“I think I’ll see the target increase, definitely, like those guys, but I’ve always been the type of player that I never needed that many targets. You give me five, six targets, I’m gonna make something happen out of it.”

Still, though, Cooper’s never turned in a 1,200-yard season and never secured more than seven touchdowns in a single campaign. That has to be factored in when his agents will try to claim he deserves to be paid among the big boys.

His agent will counter with the numbers and projections for Cooper since he joined the Cowboys in 2018. He was a top-10 receiver after joining the Cowboys, though not a top-five one. In the nine games he played for Dallas, he was among the best in the game.

Cooper ranks from Week 9 through Week 17 of 2018 regular season

Targets: 8th (76)

Receptions: 8th (53)

Yards: 9th (725)

Touchdowns: 4th (6)

Among players with at least 45 targets over those nine weeks (five per game), Cooper ranks seventh in yards per target at 9.54.

These numbers project to a 94-catch, 1,289-yard, 11-touchdown season over 16 games.

Of course, fans and Cooper expect even more from him moving forward, simply by nature of his lack of experience with Prescott when thrown into an offense midseason without any of the normal offseason and training camp work to build a relationship.

“With the timing routes, it was more mental.. so I had to kind of watch how he threw certain routes on film and kind of adjust my game to it. As opposed to actually doing it and getting a lot of repetitions in with those timing routes, because I didn’t have the opportunity to do it.

“I think once we have more repetition under our belt we’ll be more lethal than we were last season. It can only go up from here.”

Granted, the opposite holds true. Cowboys opponents, especially divisional ones, didn’t have a book on how to defend Dallas with Cooper in the fold. At the most, other NFC teams had seen him with Oakland once.

That level of surprise certainly worked in Dallas’ favor, as much as not being able to spend months working on timing went against them. In other words, while Prescott and Cooper will be more in tune in 2019, their opponents will also be better equipped with a plan to stop them. His projections very well could be his ceiling despite improved rapport.

Still, Dallas would kill for a No. 1 receiver with those projected statistics, especially in a run-first offense (if that continues to be the case under new OC Kellen Moore), when considering two factors.

First, Cooper is a clear standout among recent first-round picks at the position, dwarfing all others in yardage and touchdowns. So while he isn’t on par with the league’s best just yet, he’s atop those who came in with him and those who have followed.

Second, when comparing him to how the league’s best WRs started their careers, he isn’t far off.

Cooper vs Star WR’s first 4 years, with ranks WR Targets Receptions TDs Yards Yds/Target Cooper 465 (5) 278 (5t) 25 (4) 3,908 (6) 8.4 (5) Brown 416 261 15 3,561 8.56 Beckham 498 313 38 4,424 8.9 Hopkins 561 317 23 4,487 8.0 Jones 445 278 26 4,330 9.7 Evans 579 309 32 4,579 7.9 Hilton 494 283 24 4,413 8.9

Cooper may be far behind when it comes to rankings from 2015-18, but he’s close to the top guys when it comes to early-career performance.

His problem here is that he’s never had the breakout season the others have had that certainly played a role in their negotiations.

Top-Paid WR’s Career Highs Before Deal WR Targets Receptions TDs Yards Cooper (2019?) 132 (7th) 83 (6th) 7 (tied 6th) 1,153 (7th) Brown (2017) 193 136 10 1,834 Beckham (2018) 169 101 13 1,450 Hopkins (2017) 192 111 11 1,521 Jones (2015) 163 104 10 1,593 Evans (2018) 173 96 12 1,321 Hilton (2015) 139 82 7 1,345

The calendar years listed is the offseason prior to a new deal being signed.

So what is Cooper worth?

If we concede Cooper is below the career beginnings of the game’s best receivers and well below where they are currently, perhaps there are more worthy comparisons.

Here’s a look at Cooper compared to the next tier of receivers – players with around five years of experience who have inked recent deals.

Cooper vs Young, Tier 2 WRs first 4 seasons WR Targets Receptions TDs Yards New Deal AAV Cooper 465 (2) 278 (4) 25 (3) 3,908 (3) TBD Watkins 346 (6) 192 (6) 25 (3) 3,052 (5) $16M Landry 570 (1) 400 (1) 22 (6) 4,038 (1) $15.1M Cooks 429 (4) 280 (3) 27 (1) 3,943 (2) $16.2M Adams 398 (5) 237 (5) 26 (2) 2,811 (6) $14.5M Diggs 440 (3) 302 (2) 24 (5) 3,493 (4) $14.4M

Interestingly, the group of young No. 1’s are all in the relatively same ballpark when it comes to touchdowns, though there are wild fluctuations in the other categories.

The deal Watkins signed with Kansas City last season is absolutely mind-boggling when looking at these numbers, especially from the perspective that he’s being utilized as their No. 2 receiver and No. 3 passing game option.

Failing to have even 200 career receptions in his first four seasons, he’s a clear outlier in this comparison.

As for the rest, Rams wideout Brandin Cooks seems the best of the group, followed by Jarvis Landry of the Browns. Cooper seems to slot around third, just above Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs, with Green Bay’s Davante Adams in fifth.

With the increase in the total cap from 2018 to 2019, Cooper should rightfully inch just above Landry, but still not approach Cooks.

We estimate Cooper’s deal to be worth $15.3 million per season.

We project Dallas will give him a five-year deal, like it gave Dez Bryant in 2015. At the time, Bryant was going to be 27, turning 28 in the middle of the season. Cooper is going to be 25 for the entirety of the 2019 campaign.

Age-wise, the investment seems smarter this time around.

As for guaranteed money, there’s no way Cooper’s agent will let him come in behind Watkins $30 million. Looking at Cooper’s fifth-year option pay for 2019 as $13.9 million, and loosely projecting a 2020 franchise number for wide receivers at $18 million (2017: $15.6M, 2018: $16M, 2019 projection: $17.1M), we’ll give Cooper $32 million in guarantees over his five year deal.

Update 2/26/19: Change of heart. After reviewing the guaranteed money both Cooks and Landry got last season, we’re going to guarantee Cooper’s third year salary as well.

Our NEW Projection: 5 years (total), $76.5 million with $48 million guaranteed.

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