The runup to this year’s Grammys began with some happy surprises. After years of criticism that the awards were too white and too bland, the nominations arrived top-loaded with dynamic artists of color, following the streaming-driven success of hip-hop, R&B, and Latin music on the charts. Even the title of Spotify’s most-streamed artist of 2017 couldn’t earn Ed Sheeran a nod in one of the Big Four categories (Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist). Could the Grammys be… changing?

In many ways, though, the song remains the same. Women are underrepresented in the top categories this year—unsurprising considering that fewer than one tenth of Grammy nominees in the last five years have been women. Major labels still predominate the awards; indie star Sufjan Stevens is nominated for an Oscar, but it’s still tough to imagine him onstage for “Music’s Biggest Night.” When within hip-hop, which the Grammys seem to be making more of a priority in the top categories, perhaps it’s more about expectations being lowered than in their choices being adventurous. I mean, even Tribe were overlooked for their stunning 2017 comeback.

Grammy mind-reading is especially tricky this year thanks to various rule changes, such as online voting and a dedicated rap committee. Never mind that, though: Here’s a rundown of who’s likely to take home the key awards and who we think is actually most deserving of them (within the nominees, at least).

Album of the Year

Childish Gambino: “Awaken, My Love!”

JAY-Z: 4:44

Kendrick Lamar: DAMN.

Lorde: Melodrama

Bruno Mars: 24K Magic

Will Win: 24K Magic

Should Win: DAMN.

JAY-Z claimed the most nominations of anyone this year (eight), but that’s usually a poor guide as to who will take home the Grammys’ top honor. Kendrick Lamar, who had the most culturally defining and critically acclaimed album of 2017 with DAMN., makes the strongest case. After defeats in previous years by Macklemore and Taylor Swift, a Kendrick victory also would nicely cap the show’s “we’re relevant” now redemption story. But Lorde is already a Grammy favorite, and the presence of Childish Gambino, AKA film and TV star Donald Glover, could be an X factor. But when in doubt, remember that this is the Grammys. Bruno Mars’ mix of musicianship, showmanship, and crowd-pleasing corniness could ultimately carry the day. Never mind that 24K Magic was relatively, ahem, lackluster.

Record of the Year