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Air Canada’s decision to launch its own loyalty program in June 2020 means both CIBC and Toronto-Dominion Bank will lose their primary relationship with the airline through Aeroplan.

That has investors wondering what impact the decision potentially has to erode the banks’ credit card portfolios over the next three years.

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Gabriel Dechaine, an analyst at National Bank Financial, believes the changes will be less disruptive for CIBC, although it appears to have more to lose from an earnings standpoint.

Based on an assumed five-per-cent return on assets for credit cards and $3-billion worth of balances, Dechaine estimates Aeroplan accounts for roughly three per cent of CIBC’s 2017 earnings per share.

“We do not, however, believe that investors should assume that these earnings evaporate,” the analyst said, noting CIBC retained customers after the Aeroplan portfolio was split between the two banks, likely because they are more loyal to CIBC.