ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield, custodian of the SweetSpot blog, recently pointed out a remarkable statistic: in exactly one fewer plate appearance, David Ortiz struck out 62 fewer times in 2011 than 2010. Incredibly, there is very little precedent for such a decline.

Besides Ortiz, only one other player in baseball history struck out 62 fewer times in consecutive 500 PA seasons (within a band of +/- 10 PAs between the two years). In 1975, Jeff Burroughs led the American league with 155 strikeouts, but managed to trim that total to 93 in 1976, despite coming to the plate nine more times, which actually makes his accomplishment more impressive. Otherwise, only six other players experienced a decline of at least 40 strikeouts from one 500 PA season to the next.

Players With the Largest Strikeout Decline, 1901-2011



Note: Includes only a comparison of consecutive 500 PA seasons within a +/- 10 PA band.

Source: fangraphs.com and priority calculations

In terms of strikeout rate (K/PA), Ortiz’ 2011 decline of 10.2% ranks as the second most impressive improvement in consecutive 500 PA seasons. The only other drop off above 10% was turned in by Mark Belanger, who went from 114 strikeouts in 1968 to 54 in 1969. Because Belanger’s decline was accomplished in 63 more plate appearances, his 12.4% improvement easily outdistances even Ortiz’ steep drop-off.

Players With the Largest Strikeout Rate Decline, 1901-2011



Note: Includes only a comparison of consecutive 500 PA seasons.

Source: fangraphs.com and priority calculations

Now that we’ve established that Ortiz’ decline was historic, the next question is how did he do it? Considering the high year-to-year correlation of a player’s strike out rate (h/t fangraphs’ Bill Petti), the chances of such a large decline being random isn’t very likely. So, Big Papi’s improvement suggests he either benefited from a more favorable distribution of his at bats or made a significant adjustment to his approach at the plate.

My first guess was Ortiz may have either faced fewer lefties or simply had a much better season against them, but neither was the case. Not only did Ortiz have one fewer plate appearance against left handers in 2011, but the declines in his strikeouts were the same for both righties (43.1%) and lefties (42.1%). So, the Red Sox’ DH didn’t benefit from a more favorable platoon split.

David Ortiz’ PITCHf/x Data, 2010 vs. 2011



Source: fangraphs.com

The first hint about an explanation comes from an analysis of Ortiz’ PITCHf/x data. The one number that jumps out is the significant increase the rate of contact Ortiz made (Contact%), especially on pitches out of the zone (O-Contact %). As a result, Ortiz’ swing and miss rate (SwStr%) also declined to the lowest level since joining the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Ortiz saw 210 fewer pitches and faced 46 fewer two-strike counts, thanks in large part to 35 more at bats of two pitchers or less (including 26 more outcomes on the first pitch).

David Ortiz’ Batting Count Data, 2010 vs. 2011



Source: baseball-reference.com

Although the natural inference would be to assume Ortiz’ strikeout decline was due to a more aggressive approach, the percentage of balls he offered at was relatively unchanged. Rather, it seems as if pitchers were being more aggressive earlier in the count (perhaps because of the perception that Ortiz’ bat speed was slowing). In 2011, Ortiz saw a first strike in 56.9% of his at bats, an increase from 49.5% the year before. So, if aggression is a factor, the onus is at least as much on the opposition.

Having 46 fewer two-strike counts is a big reason why Ortiz’ K-rate declined so precipitously, but it isn’t the only factor. After all, with two strikes, Big Papi’s K-rate declined from 42.7% in 2010 to 28.2% in 2011. What’s more, he also hit much better with two strikes, increasing his OPS in the split from .686 to .804 (for an sOPS+ of 208). In other words, Ortiz was simply a much better hitter in 2011.

David Ortiz’ Strikeout Rates, 2000 to 2011



Source: fangraphs.com

Perhaps more important than how Ortiz was able to avoid striking out in 2011 is whether he will be able to repeat that performance in 2012. It might seem like a difficult task for a big slugger like Ortiz to maintain such a low strike rate, but a look at his career rates suggests 2010 may be the real outlier. Although Ortiz has had success while striking out at higher rates, the DH’s continued ability to avoiding going down on strikes could dictate the level of his performance in 2012, making his contact rates a bellwether Red Sox fans might want to monitor during the season.

Start Spreading the News! Twitter

Facebook

Reddit

More

Google

Email



LinkedIn

