Given the size of the Democratic majority, an Obama administration is also likely to impose stricter environmental regulations and place higher taxes on oil companies than the Bush administration did. -- JAD MOUAWAD

TRADE: Cooperation Fades, Protectionism Rises

What consensus there was on international trade seemed to evaporate with the failure of world trade talks this summer. Indeed, with the world on the brink of a global recession, led by the United States and Europe, the fear of a rise in protectionism grows.

The first test of sustaining international cooperation will come on Nov. 14 and 15, long before Mr. Obama takes office. Leaders from 20 major countries will gather in Washington with President Bush to embark on an effort to rewrite international financial regulations  an undertaking some liken to a latter-day Bretton Woods conference.

Whether or not he attends, Mr. Obama will cast a long shadow.

In short order, the recession and a likely spike in unemployment are sure to put him under pressure from union supporters, as well as Congressional Democrats, to take a tougher line on trade.

“China is the issue that should be part of Obama’s trade policy right away,” said Thea M. Lee, the chief economist of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. “Part of it is sending a strong message to the Chinese government that the U.S. is not willing to tolerate currency manipulation and violation of workers’ rights.”

But China’s economy is slowing, making its leaders even less receptive to demands to allow their currency to rise. The United States will also need the Chinese to buy a good chunk of the debt being run up by the bailout of banks and housing.

It is also unclear whether Mr. Obama will pursue a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he discussed in the hard-fought primaries.

“He parsed his answers in a way that suggests he understands the importance of global trade,” said Hank Cox, a spokesman for the National Association of Manufacturers. -- MARK LANDLER