California’s birth rate hits record low following job, housing woes



Click through this slideshow to see which states are the best- and the worst- to have a baby. California's birth rate dipped to an all-time low, according to data released Monday.

Click through this slideshow to see which states are the best- and the worst- to have a baby. California's birth rate dipped to an all-time low, according to data released Monday. Photo: Michael Zamora, MBO Photo: Michael Zamora, MBO Image 1 of / 25 Caption Close California’s birth rate hits record low following job, housing woes 1 / 25 Back to Gallery

As California’s population grew to 39.4 million this year, its birth rate dipped to an all-time low amid the mounting challenges of raising a family, according to state data released Monday — a decline that some say threatens future economic growth and prosperity.

The preference for fewer kids is a trend that’s played out nationally and for at least a decade as women put off having children until later in life. But in California, the recession of the late 2000s, a lingering economic recovery and the state’s exorbitant real estate market have created fresh obstacles for young couples looking to settle down.

“It’s not like Millennials are all of a sudden different,” said Dowell Myers, a demographer at the University of Southern California’s School of Public Policy. “What’s different is they came of age at a really bad time. First, they lose their job opportunities. Second, they’ve been gridlocked by the shortage of housing.”

“It’s just been harder to get things in place before having kids,” Myers said.

The result for California was just 489,000 babies between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016 — or 12.4 births for every 1,000 people, according to the state Department of Finance. The rate surpassed the previous record low of 12.6 births for every 1,000 people set in 1933, during the throes of the Great Depression.

California’s small northern counties, which have long struggled to attract jobs and young families, logged the lowest birth rates. But coastal spots, including the booming Bay Area and the Central Coast, weren’t far behind.

Though the state figures don’t tease out birth rates by ethnicity, U.S. census data suggest the trend holds among virtually all groups. Even among the Hispanic population, among the nation’s fastest growing, women have been giving birth in decreasing numbers since 2006, when the economy began to take its turn.

California’s low birth rates are helping prolong a decade-long trend of minimal population growth. The 0.75 percent increase between July of 2015 and 2016 marks 12 consecutive years that the state has gone without a bump above 1 percent. That’s a far cry from last century’s growth, which at times soared to 3 percent or more annually.

“In the ’70s and ’80s, we were pretty much a new state, with plenty of opportunity and open land, and many people came here,” said Walter Schwarm, a demographer with the Department of Finance. “Now, we look like a state that isn’t at that point anymore. We’re a mature state.”

As with the birth rate, the number of people moving to California has done little to boost the state’s population. While the level of newcomers has gone up since the late 2000s, when the recession discouraged many from coming here, migration to California remains low by historical standards.

Between July of 2015 and July of 2016, the state gained 188,000 people through migration from another country. But it lost 118,000 people due to migration between states. In all, 70,000 more people arrived than left.

Public policy experts say there could be significant costs if California’s growth rate falls further.

The population needs to at least sustain itself, and ideally to grow modestly, to fill the state’s jobs, support its economy and pay for the social benefits of retiring Baby Boomers.

“These are your future workers, taxpayers and home buyers. It’s your future for the next 20 years,” Myers said. “And we’re not getting them.”

Myers said California’s high cost of living is largely to blame for not attracting the young families that the state needs.

“While the job market is good,” he said, “the housing market stinks.”

Pro-growth policies such as increasing the housing stock and expanding child tax credits have been proposed. So have plans to encourage immigration, especially among highly-educated foreigners. But each of these efforts comes with financial and political challenges.

Schwarm, the state demographer, said that even if the state’s biggest growth is in the past, California has plenty to lure the best and brightest.

“To a certain extent,” he said, “as long as we remain an attractive state and the jobs are here, people will come.”

Kurtis Alexander is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kalexander@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @kurtisalexander

39.4 million

California residents as of June 30, up 0.75 percent year-to-year

489,000 and 264,000

births and deaths, respectively, recorded by the state

in the last fiscal year

70,000

more people moved into California than moved out of the state in the last fiscal year.