New Democratic Party Leader Tom Mulcair should have two years to rebuild the party’s fortunes before being replaced, but that could come sooner if he does poorly in next week’s leadership review, says one of Canada’s most powerful labor leaders.

“The reality is that we are sitting at 11.7 per cent in the polls today. I would suggest to you if we are sitting at 11.7 per cent two years down the road, the discussion will be much different,” said Jerry Dias, president of Unifor which will have 30-40 voting delegates at next week’s NDP convention in Edmonton, at which Mulcair will be subject to a leadership review.

“If the leader can’t move the polls beyond 11.7 per cent then we’re going to have to do something dramatically different, that’s for sure.”

The NDP’s next policy convention and leadership review in 2018 is not too late before the next election, scheduled for 2019, to choose a new leader, he added.

“If you take a look at the history of provincial leaders, a year or a year, a year and a half, has given leaders a long time to establish themselves so I’m not concerned about that at all.”

Dias warned NDP delegates against making a “snap decision that ends up being a bad decision” about Mulcair’s leadership in Edmonton next week.

“The labor movement and the progressive left ought not to make a decision so quick after the last federal election. People need to take a breath. We need to have good conversations. We need to have a clear head while we make long term strategic decisions.”

Unlike other federal political parties, labor unions play a significant role in the NDP as well as its conventions, sending large numbers of delegates. Dias said Mulcair is polling well with labor leaders.

“A lot of the labor movement is supporting Tom but you will find that the labor movement is quite unanimous in that the discussions, the real discussions, will happen after Edmonton.”

However, Dias warned that a re-evaluation of Mulcair’s leadership could come sooner than 2018 if the results of next week’s leadership review vote are disappointing.

“If he doesn’t get a good vote next week then he has to give some serious consideration as to what his political future is.”

Dias’ comments outside the Broadbent Institute’s Progress Summit come a week before an estimated 1,500 NDP delegates are to descend on Edmonton for a policy convention and a mandatory leadership review. As the summit kicked into high gear Friday, the future of the NDP and of Mulcair dominated the chatter in the corridors.

They also come a day after an EKOS poll for iPolitics showed the NDP is standing at 11.7 percent support among Canadians, a level that EKOS president Frank Graves said is the lowest level of support his polling firm has seen for the NDP since 2003.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is at 42.1 per cent while the opposition Conservative Party is at 31.7 per cent. Elizabeth May’s Green Party garnered 6.4 per cent support.

Mulcair, however, told reporters he is up for the challenge.

“I don’t take anything for granted,” said Mulcair, pointing out he is the only Canadian political leader who faces a leadership review at every party policy convention.

“I have worked tirelessly since the election to listen to our members across the country and apply the lessons going forward. That’s all I can do,” he said, adding the rest is up to NDP delegates.

Mulcair praised the post-mortem on the NDP’s 2015 election campaign released Friday, which analyzed how the NDP went from the prospect of forming a government to third place in the House of Commons within the course of the campaign.

“I can guarantee you that every single one of those recommendations is welcome and will be put into effect,” Mulcair said.

Sentiment among those attending the Summit, however, appeared to be mixed when it came to whether Mulcair should continue to lead the party.

Longtime members of the NDP say privately that the risk to Mulcair’s leadership will be far greater in 2018 than it will be next week in Edmonton. At the moment, they say there is no obvious successor on the horizon and three and a half years before the next election.

Among those willing to speak on the record, reaction ranged from support for Mulcair to a wait and see approach.

Former MP Andrew Cash, who was among those swept aside by the Liberal wave that washed over the Toronto area, is among those who won’t say whether or not he will support Mulcair next week.

“I think that when we meet in Edmonton next week we’re going to have a big conversation and I think that it is going to be an interesting one. We’re going to see, we’re going to hear what Tom’s vision for the future of the party is and I think at that point folks are going to decide whether that’s where the party should go.”

Former MP Hoang Mai was also being tight lipped, saying he did not yet know how the delegation from his riding south of Montreal were going to vote.

“It will be up to the members to decide,” he told reporters. “Mr. Mulcair was really there when it was important, when I was an MP he really worked very hard for us. We will see. I am also eager to see on the election result whether we have learned from our mistakes.”

NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice said he understands why some people are frustrated and angry when they had hoped to form government but “at the moment Tom Mulcair is our leader” and he supports him.

“We had hoped to form a government – that is true. But Mr. Mulcair is a strong leader and the caucus is behind him.”

Former MP Rosane Doré Lefebvre, defeated in the riding of Alfred Pellan north of Montreal, said she is sensing support for Mulcair.

“I think it will go well. It will be interesting to see what will happen at the convention next week but I am confident he will win the vote,” said Doré Lefebvre who will be at the convention.

“I’m voting for Tom. I think he is the right person to lead our party in the next election.”

John Horgan, leader of British Columbia’s provincial NDP says he won’t be in Edmonton next week but he supports Mulcair, pointing out that the increase in the number of federal NDP seats in B.C in the last election augurs well for his party’s chances in the next provincial election.

“What we saw in British Columbia was gains in the interior, we saw gains on Vancouver Island. So from my perspective going into a provincial campaign in just over a year, I’m delighted to have beachheads in the Kootenays, beachheads in the interior and that is the result of Tom Mulcair’s leadership.”

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