Player Distribution Tool

Rather than a single ranking or dual “ceiling-floor” projection, a draft prospect’s NBA value can be seen as a range and frequency of potential outcomes. This tool aims to predict the probability of those outcomes. Player Impact Plus Minus (PIPM), created by Jacob Goldstein, is an all-in-one player metric. More on this tool and the model behind it can be found here. Player distributions should be interpreted like this: “Based on college players with similar statistical profiles, player X has Y probability distribution.” Below, a table of very subjective bins shows total probabilities of certain ranges that correlate loosely with common NBA labels. Remember, these distributions are predicting a player’s peak, defined as their best three consecutive seasons. Please consume responsibly.

Distributions are available for prospects and draftees from 2014 to 2018.



