2002

Eleven years after independence, Azerbaijan is slowly moving toward the establishment of a liberal democratic society. Vestiges of the past remain strong in a strictly presidential system of government, a powerful executive body, and an economy that has not yet completed the transition to a market economy. Azerbaijan's main problem is the unresolved conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh which results in significant social problems among refugees and internally displaced persons.

Azerbaijan’s domestic political scene 2002 is characterized by an increase in speculation about succession scenarios. President Aliyev, who is 80 years old, was in good health throughout the year, but speculation that he is planning to groom his son Ilham, currently the Vice President of the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), intensifies as the latter was given increased exposure and a heightened international role.

In August, a referendum is carried out on constitutional amendments intended to align Azerbaijan with Council of Europe (COE) standards. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and opposition leaders consider some of the amendments as positive but criticize others as intended to limit political competition and get ready for a managed succession. At the same time, membership in the Council of Europe begins to bring about dialogue between council representatives and the Azerbaijani government. Azerbaijan also joins the European Convention on Human Rights, and agrees to its obligation on the abolition of the death penalty.

2003

President Aliyev's health problems end his tenure as president. The political field radicalizes in the run up to the October 15 presidential elections. Internal splits in the government are subdued as President Aliyev's son Ilham is appointed prime minister and becomes the ruling party's candidate. The opposition's claims of voting irregularities and its refusal to accept the official election outcome result in violent clashes between opposition members and the police and army. Hundreds of opposition activists are detained by the authorities.

2005

The president maintains political and economic stability in the country, while failing to push forward a genuine democratization program or a credible anti-corruption drive. Parliamentary elections fail to meet a number of international standards.

2008

The presidential elections of October 2008 fail to meet international standards and mark another step back in democracy for Azerbaijan.

2009

A March referendum eliminates the constitutional limits for two consecutive presidential terms, paving the way for a potential life-long presidency for Aliyev. New detentions of journalists mark further backsliding of freedom of expression norms. Along with rights and watchdog groups, youth activists are under governmental pressure, with two young bloggers sentenced to prison terms on charges believed to be politically motivated. These developments are accompanied by the government’s increasing readiness to ignore the international community’s criticisms of its democratic performance.

2010

Under President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan has become more authoritarian. In November, parliamentary elections that reinforced the power of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) take place amid intimidation and repression and the routine allegations of fraud. Preelection opposition rallies in May, June, and July are quashed and dozens of participants detained.

2011

The regime begins more systematically suppressing youth and opposition activism and enforces increasingly restrictive policies around religious freedom. The government also violates property rights, especially in Baku, where residents are evicted by force and their homes illegally demolished.

2012

Azerbaijan’s regime continues to deny citizens their civil liberties and political rights. Significant oil revenues fuel presidential clientelism, strengthen the state’s security apparatus, and suppress domestic and foreign criticism of the regime.

The widely known Eurovision Song Contest, which Baku hosts in May, gives civil society actors an opportunity to draw attention to their government’s disregard for basic democratic and human rights. Independent civil society actors organize protests and awareness raising campaigns ahead of the event. The state responds with widespread arrests and new infringement of due process, despite demands by human rights organizations, European institutions, and international media that these stop. The government detains political opponents, activists, and journalists all year, mostly on bogus or overblown criminal charges. It also increases fines and jail terms for taking part in unauthorized public events.

This was all made possible by a judiciary dependent on the executive branch and a legislature in which the President’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) is the only one with more than three seats. Policymaking does not account for the public’s needs and facilitates the further consolidation of the ruling regime. Trial proceedings target dissenters and violate their legal rights. Only perfunctory intentions are made to include opposition parties in the political field. New legislation limits access to information, worsening corruption.

2013

In October, President Aliyev secures a third term in office through deeply flawed elections. The incumbent’s landslide victory was widely anticipated due to the administration’s monopoly over state resources and its ruthless intimidation tactics. However, unlike in previous elections, a wide spectrum of opposition groups—including political parties, youth movements, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)—manage to unite under the umbrella of the National Council of Democratic Forces.

The year is also marked by a series of protests in the capital and in the regions. Some of these demonstrations are organized by the opposition; others appear spontaneous, most notably the riots in the town of Ismayilli at the end of January and rallies in Baku protesting violence in the military in March. Throughout the year, the regime arrested and detained political opponents, activists, and journalists and used bogus charges against its critics.

The authorities continue to crack down on public protests in 2013, imposing high fines for participation in and organization of unauthorized protests. New legal amendments introduced in March, including NGO registration requirements, restrictions on funding, and higher fines for administrative offenses, make the day-to-day operation of civil organizations critical of the regime increasingly difficult. The free exercise of freedom of religion or belief by followers of a variety of beliefs, including the majority Islamic faith, continued to be targeted by the regime.

2014

The government uses an acquiescent court system to punish and deter criticism and its full control of the media to ensure the domination of the official narrative over alternative framings of the political situation. The government has subdued all opposition parties other than those that are in reality aligned with YAP.

Repression against perceived threats to the regime’s stability become harsher in 2014. Human rights activists, journalists, and other government critics are faced with criminal charges as well as physical and financial harassment. Bank accounts of various NGOs are frozen and many NGOs are forced to shut down operations, further decreasing the space for political discourse. Youth movements and allied bloggers are a main target. Azerbaijan’s civil society is decimated by this wave of purges and arrests. The regime rejects criticism about the repression of civil society by its allies.

2015

President Ilham Aliyev and YAP strengthen their dominance of political life. Condemning an unfair electoral system, all of the main opposition parties boycott the November parliamentary elections. YAP wins 71 seats out of 125, with the remainder of seats going to the ‘fake’ opposition, which includes 41 ‘independents’ who resolutely conform to the YAP party line. A limited number of international observers are present during the voting, as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) abstain from its usual election monitoring after Azerbaijan refuses to allow the needed number of observers in. Local observer groups report ballot stuffing and exaggerated reports of voter turnout.

Azerbaijan’s civil society faces further persecution. Anar Mammadli, the leader of Azerbaijan’s main election monitoring organization, remains imprisoned on politically motivated charges. Opposition leader Ilgar Mammadov also remains in jail, where he was subjected to torture. Some activists placed in pretrial detention in 2014 finally stand trial and receive lengthy prison sentences. Later in the year, Leyla and Arif Yunus are allowed to house arrest from prison on humanitarian grounds, but only after numerous medical emergencies and international criticism. Their guilty sentences for fraud and tax evasion remain in effect. The country’s civil society field is now monopolized by government-organized non-governmental organizations, or GONGOs.

The already dire media situation increasingly deteriorates. By the end of the year, eight journalists remain in jail. Acclaimed Investigative journalist Khadija Ismayilova is imprisoned, although she continues to smuggle out messages of resistance from prison and her colleagues outside of Azerbaijan carry on her investigations into high-level corruption in Azerbaijan. Photojournalist Rasim Aliyev is beaten to death in circumstances that suggest a political basis. Self-censorship and a lack of financial resources have become the rule among Azerbaijani media outlets. Outlets critical of the government, such as Meydan TV, are forced to broadcast from outside Azerbaijan and work with anonymous journalists inside Azerbaijan. The relatives of such reporters, as well as civil society activists, are subjected to heavy harassment and persecution within the country.

2016

Amid Azerbaijan’s growing economic problems, President Ilham Aliyev consolidates his rule through a controversial constitutional referendum in September 2016 which increase the powers of an already bloated executive while undermining accountability mechanisms and fundamental rights. Changes to minimum age requirements for political candidates feed speculation that President Aliyev is preparing the way to political tenure for his 19-year-old son, Heydar. The authorities prevent opposition activists from campaigning against the referendum and arrest dozens before and during anti-referendum protests. The legitimacy of the election is further weakened by video recordings of ballot stuffing.

2017

Autocratic rule in Azerbaijan strengthens more than ever, as state institutions take several unprecedented steps to constrain the freedom of expression, silence critics at domestically and outside the country, and repress minority communities for political gain.

President Ilham Aliyev moves to further entrench his family’s control of the state, appointing his wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, as First Vice President, thereby putting her first in the line of succession. The ripple effects of this personalization of the state are already becoming apparent: independent media outlets surmise that major attacks on their websites, which eventually led to a complete shutdown of their online presence, were instigated by Aliyeva for their coverage of her appointment.

As power becomes increasingly concentrated in the hands of the Aliyev’s family, Azerbaijan becomes decreasingly responsive to international pressure and is less occupied with maintaining any outward appearance of democratic freedoms.

After forcing essentially all independent media outlets out of the country in recent years, the government begins blocking access to their websites.

In late May, investigative journalist Afgan Mukhtarli is apparently kidnapped off the streets of Tbilisi by Georgian security services, who then transport him to the Azerbaijani border and hand him over to border guards. Despite widespread international condemnation, an Azerbaijani court sentences Mukhtarli to six years in prison in January 2018.

In September, Baku police systematically round up at least 84 LGBT people in what is mostly a series of late-night raids. The detained individuals are tortured, subjected to forced medical examinations, and compelled to inform on others in the community, or on wealthy or powerful individuals with whom they had had intimate relations. The government argued both that it had simply conducted a clean up of sex workers at the request of residents, and that the purpose of the arrests was to quarantine disease-carrying people.

2018

Aliyev is elected to his fourth term as president in an uncompetitive process amid evidence of electoral irregularities and intense pressure on the media and opposition. While opposition leader Ilgar Mammadov is released by an appeals court after five years imprisonment on politically motivated charges, other opposition actors still face arrest and imprisonment. The government continues to repress the media, blocking independent news websites and detaining and indicting critical journalists.