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Generally speaking, NFL underdogs have more value than favorites. This is due to the fact that the betting public loves betting favorites, especially winning teams, big-name teams, popular franchises and teams with star players. It’s not rocket science. If an Average Joe is going to put his hard-earned money down on a game, he wants to back the “better” team with the greater chance of covering.

However, bettors must remember sportsbooks don’t set lines in a vacuum. They know this inherent public bias toward favorites and will shade lines accordingly. This forces public bettors to take overpriced numbers.

For instance, maybe the oddsmakers crunch the numbers and their computer algorithms say the Patriots should be a seven-point favorite against the Jets. The books know they’ll be flooded with Patriots money no matter what the spread is. As a result, they’ll shade the number toward the popular side and set the Patriots at -7¹/₂. As a result, public bettors just bought an artificially inflated line while wiseguys just extracted additional value on the Jets simply due to public bias.

So this means bet every underdog, right? Not exactly.

According to BetLabsSports.com, Underdogs have gone 1,992-1,974 against the spread (50.2 percent) since 2003. Despite this winning record, you actually would have lost 75.14 units because of having to pay the vig.

Remember, in order to break even betting on spread sports (assuming standard -110 juice), you need to win 52.38 percent of your bets. This is part of why the house always wins.

Conversely, favorites have gone 49.8 percent ATS since 2003, losing 99.91 units. Long story short, underdogs have performed better than favorites over the past 17 years, but are still losing in the end.

The key is focusing on specific situational spots with underdogs.

For example, visiting underdogs (1,337-1,282 ATS, 51.1 percent, -7.21 units) perform much better than home ’dogs (644-667 ATS, 49.1 percent, -53.43 units) because public bettors overvalue home-field advantage.

Divisional dogs (756-731 ATS, 50.8 percent, -10.93 units) perform better than non-divisional ’dogs (1,236-1,243 ATS, 49.9 percent, -64.2 units) because the built-in familiarity of playing twice a season levels the playing field and benefits the ’dog.

But none of these angles compare to the ultimate edge: September dogs!

Since 2003, September dogs have gone 432-397 ATS (52.1 percent), winning +16.15 units per BetLabsSports. This is the only month where blindly betting ’dogs has been profitable.

Why is September so profitable for betting dogs? Mostly because all teams start at full strength, ’dogs are still optimistic and haven’t given up yet, and the good teams have yet to fully jell and break apart from the pack. Also, coaches have had months to game plan. This leads to tighter games and increases the likelihood of ’dogs covering and pulling off surprising upsets.

If we focus on divisional ’dogs in September we hit the jackpot. These teams have gone an astounding 165-129 ATS (56.1 percent), winning +28.18 units with a hefty 9.2 percent return on investment (ROI). They’ve produced consistent positive results for the first three weeks before tailing off in Week 4.

Week 1: 47-31 ATS (60.3 percent); Week 2: 46-31 ATS (59.7 percent); Week 3: 39-23 ATS (62.9 percent); Week 4: 18-18 ATS (50 percent).

The teams that fit the September Divisional ’Dog system in Week 1 are the Packers (+3 at Bears), Giants (+7 at Cowboys), Bills (+3 at Jets) and Redskins (+9 at Eagles).

Another hidden gem angle is buying low on divisional ’dogs in September that missed the playoffs the previous season going against teams that made the playoffs the previous year.

The betting public doesn’t have much to go off of when placing their Week 1 bets, so what do they lean on? Last season’s results. Recreational bettors overvalue last season’s playoff teams and undervalue teams who missed the postseason. This creates a perfect storm for value-minded sharps.

Teams that fit this system have gone 21-5 ATS (80.8 percent), winning +14.65 units with an insane 54.2 percent ROI since 2003. The Packers, Redskins and Giants all match in Week 1.