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“Campaigns matter.”

It is probably the shortest adage in politics. And one that everyone takes as gospel.

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Maybe we shouldn’t.

We think campaigns matter because political parties can win or lose based on what happens during the relatively short period of an election campaign.

Consequently, we think politicians are justified in pouring oodles of money and effort into winning over voters.

However, a new mega study by a couple of American political scientists is raising doubts about the wisdom of politicians spending so much time and treasure trying to change the minds of voters, whether it be through TV advertising, phone calls or good old door-to-door canvassing.

“Our best guess is that it persuades about one in 800 voters, substantively zero,” conclude the authors, Joshua Kalla at Berkeley and David Broockman at Stanford. “Our argument is not that campaigns do not influence general elections in any way, but that the direct persuasive effects of their voter contact and advertising in general elections are essentially zero.”