Pope Francis has been a vocal critic of Myanmar’s harsh treatment of its Rohingya Muslim minority population, a cause of growing friction with western countries and the UN.

So at first glance, Monday’s Vatican announcement that Myanmar has invited him make the first ever papal visit to the predominantly Buddhist nation in November seems puzzling.

An explanation is to be found in the increasingly uncomfortable dilemma facing Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s elected leader, Nobel laureate and democratic standard-bearer. She is caught between religious nationalists and the still powerful military, which ruled for decades prior to watershed elections in 2015, and western donors, aid agencies and human rights organisations critical of her failure to end ethnic strife and implement reforms.

Clashes last Friday between the security forces and militants of the self-styled Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (Arsa) in Rakhine (Arakan) state, bordering Bangladesh, were the most lethal in recent memory, leaving more than 100 people dead. With further escalation feared, they highlighted the potential of entrenched ethnic and religious tensions in Rakhine and troublespots such as Kachin state to shatter Myanmar’s fragile democratic renaissance.

In other words, Aung San Suu Kyi needs all the help she can get, divine or otherwise.

Speaking on Sunday, the pope again condemned “the persecution of our Rohingya brothers” and called on “men and women of good faith to help them and ensure their full rights”. Like his previous interventions, the comments are likely to infuriate nationalists who maintain that the Rohingya are not Burmese but rather Bangladeshis with no right to live in the country.

Ashin Wirathu, a monk who leads the hardline Buddhist movement Ma Ba Tha, denounced the papal visit as politically instigated. “There is no Rohingya ethnic group in our country, but the pope believes they are originally from here. That’s false,” he said.

Who are the Rohingya? The Myanmar government does not recognise the roughly 1.1 million Muslim Rohingya as citizens, creating a stateless people.



In 2012, deadly clashes with Buddhists in the western state of Rakhine caused 140,000 Rohingya to flee their homes. Many have since paid people smugglers to take them on dangerous sea voyages to Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia where they are often exploited.



Extremist nationalist movements insist the group are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, although the Rohingya say they are native to Rakhine state.



Rights groups accuse Myanmar authorities of ethnic cleansing, systematically forcing Rohingya from the country through violence and persecution, a charge the government has denied.

While Pope Francis and Aung San Suu Kyi may be hoping his visit will calm tempers, marginalise the extremists and boost reconciliation, it could have the opposite effect. The military chiefs who continue to control key areas of the government’s domestic apparatus, including internal security, can be expected to portray the pope’s visit as proof of their acceptance on the international stage.

His three-day tour may give them the respectability they crave. Conversely, that could make it harder for Aung San Suu Kyi to curb brutal military counter-insurgency campaigns. She is already accused in the west of not doing nearly enough.

UN officials suggest the military’s actions may in some cases amount to crimes against humanity. But UN investigators were blocked from entering the country earlier this year. Aung San Suu Kyi has also been taken to task for inaction over continuing human rights abuses, including curbs on free speech and media, the detention of political prisoners and the blocking of aid agency access to conflict zones.

In a report published in February, the UN high commissioner for human rights accused Myanmar’s army and police of slaughtering hundreds of men, women and children, gang-raping women and girls and forcing up to 90,000 Rohingya from their homes.

Given the constitutional and practical constraints upon her, the criticism of Aung San Suu Kyi looks harsh. The resulting diminished support offered by the US and the EU is being offset by closer ties between the military and China, which wastes no time on human rights.

Previous deals with Beijing have proved controversial and unpopular among local people, but Beijing’s influence is growing as the west dithers. China’s $10bn (£7.7bn) investment in the Kyauk Pyu special economic zone is a case in point. Chinese officials say joint projects will create 100,000 new jobs in Rakhine and that increased prosperity will bring increased stability.

Aung San Suu Kyi, mindful of impoverished Myanmar’s pressing need for economic development, must strike a balance between growth and longstanding fears over embracing China too closely.

Less than two years after her electoral breakthrough, she is up against it. In welcoming the pope, she may hope to gain the support and assistance of a relatively impartial world figure who can help keep the army and her western critics at bay – and win her much-needed breathing space.