Pretty good for an economy where exports have declined and private investment remains weak

How much will India grow by in 2015-16?

7-7.75%

Next year, 2016-17?

7-7.75%

Is that the fastest India can grow?

No. India’s long-term potential is 8-10% real rate of GDP growth. But the state of the global economy will weigh on the country’s ability to achieve it in the medium term when 7-7.5% will be the norm.

What has India done to boost growth?

It has tackled corruption; reformed its foreign direct investment policy; made it easier to do business in the country; increased public investment; launched a powerful crop insurance scheme; controlled inflation; worked on the cause of financial inclusion; restructured the power sector; and worked on removing some subsidies.

Why then are people so negative?

Maybe because they don’t realise that the sum is greater than the parts. And maybe because there have been disappointments.

Such as?

The inability to pass the Goods and Services Tax legislation. Not divesting as much as expected. Not moving fast enough on the next stage of removing subsidies. And the continuing stress on bank and corporate balance sheets

What can India do to get to the next stage of growth?

Become pro-entrepreneurship by becoming pro-competition. Invest in health and education. And not ignore agriculture which is still very important

In conclusion?

There are reasons for hope. Competitive federalism has made states pro-business and reformist. There is a growing realisation that good economics is good politics. There is always hope that GST will be passed. The sweet spot is still there.

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