Fwd: TPP/TPA letter

From:jake.sullivan@gmail.com To: john.podesta@gmail.com Date: 2015-03-03 02:50 Subject: Fwd: TPP/TPA letter

Would be best not to have this letter go forward at all. Begin forwarded message: > From: Samuel Berger <sberger@albrightstonebridge.com> > Date: March 2, 2015 at 11:45:46 PM EST > To: Dan Schwerin <dan@hrcoffice.com>, "'jake.sullivan@gmail.com'" <'jake.sullivan@gmail.com'> > Cc: Samuel Berger <sberger@albrightstonebridge.com> > Subject: TPP/TPA letter > > As I think about it, this one is even harder than Iran. Battle lines are forming. Will be read as early signal of where she's headed on the basic economic issues-- have trade agreements helped us or hurt us? Who have the helped? Do they increase gaps, or reduce them? > > Purely to frame thinking, I've listed below some of the pluses and minuses of signing the letter. > > Pros and cons of signing > > Pros: > -- She was instrumental in launching TPP negotiations. What has changed (other than the politics)? > > -- Failure of the U.S. to approve a deal, if one is reached, would be huge setback for US in Asia; undermine US leadership in the Asia/Pacific region; and guaranteeing China-centric model. > > --Supporting seems more consistent with her larger, outward looking world view, based on building partnerships and arrangements around common interests. > > --While not unchallenged, most studies show strong economic benefits to US. > > --Don't duck the issue by not signing. Absence will not go unnoticed. (Some possibility--unsure-- that being part of letter with most all former Sec/State; Sec/Defense; NSAs; many retired 4-stars is lower way to take position) > > -- What is public rationale for not signing? > > Cons: > > -- Can be used as a "wedge" issue between H and more populist wing of party. Could well be seized upon as first indication of tilt of her economic policy. > > -- Studies by progressive experts which show that job benefits of trade agreements wildly overstates and benefits go largely to big corporations. Wouldn't imagine you are geared up to rebut that argument yet. > > -- Defeating is number one priority of labor. TPP becomes surrogate against globalization". Can't vote against rise of global manufacturing, or new labor saving technologies or global communications which creates one market. Can vote against trade agreement and express frustration with middle class stagnation. > > --Fires up economic debate before you might like (but also possible -- not sure-- that some benefits to doing in group of other nat/sec notables) > > All of this doesn't answer question but may help frame it. > > White House meeting tomorrow at 5 to discuss general campaign on TPA. This will be discussed. Around all day before. > > Sandy > > > > > Sent from my iPhone > As of March 2, 2015 ASG’s Washington, DC offices have relocated to: > 601 13th St NW | 10th Floor | Washington, DC 20005 | Main Line +1 202.759.5100