With the final international break now done and dusted, we return to thick and fast helpings of Premier League action as we approach the business end of the season. Read on as we analyse the clean sheet and anytime goalscorer odds in order to help you with your transfer decisions, squad selection and captaincy dilemmas for Gameweek 30.

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Chelsea 1.67 60% Man Utd 1.87 53% Tottenham 2.21 45% Watford 2.4 42% Swansea 2.4 42% Southampton 2.45 41% Liverpool 2.59 39% Leicester 2.7 37% Hull 3.4 29% Man City 3.85 26% West Ham 3.9 26% Middlesbrough 4.15 24% Stoke 4.4 23% Sunderland 4.6 22% Arsenal 4.85 21% Burnley 5.5 18% Everton 6 17% Bournemouth 6.5 15% West Brom 7.5 13% Crystal Palace 8.4 12%

A home game against Crystal Palace sees Chelsea top the bookies’ defensive rankings, with Antonio Conte’s men afforded a 60% chance of keeping a clean sheet on Saturday afternoon. The Eagles have blanked in 3 of their last 5 on the road, giving the Blues the perfect opportunity to add to the 7 home clean sheets they have already accrued this term. Marcos Alonso, with all his attacking potential, is once again our pick from the Chelsea defence.

With West Brom failing to score in 4 of their last 7 away games, Manchester United (53%) will be looking to make it 3 clean sheets in 4 at Old Trafford. David de Gea offers a reliable pair of hands between the sticks and takes his place in goal for our squad.

Tottenham (45%) rank third for the gameweek ahead of their trip to Turf Moor. Whilst the fixture may seem easy on paper, Burnley have only blanked twice at home this season, so Mauricio Pochettino’s men may not have things all their own way on Saturday. Still, Ben Davies, with Danny Rose still sidelined, offers value and attacking threat, and makes our starting XI as a result.

Watford and Swansea (both 42%) tie for fourth this weekend, and with both sides offering defenders for £4.5m, we opt for Alfie Mawson, who has notched an incredible 4 goals in his last 10 Premier League games. The Swans host Middlesbrough, who are goalless in 4 on their travels, on Sunday.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Stoke’s budget shot stopper Lee Grant (£4.0m – 23%) as our backup keeper, with Southampton’s Jack Stephens (£4.0m – 41%) and Sunderland’s Donald Love (£4.0m – 22%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Bournemouth (15% – away to Southampton), West Brom (13% – away to Man United) and Crystal Palace (12% – away to Chelsea) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Diego Costa 1.78 56% Sergio Aguero 2.2 45% Marcus Rashford 2.3 43% Eden Hazard 2.35 43% Shane Long 2.38 42% Son Heung-Min 2.55 39% Fernando Llorente 2.55 39% Troy Deeney 2.55 39% Vincent Janssen 2.62 38% Jamie Vardy 2.62 38% Alexis Sanchez 2.7 37% Sadio Mane 2.7 37% Romelu Lukaku 2.75 36% Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2.75 36% Roberto Firmino 2.8 36% Divock Origi 2.88 35% Abel Hernandez 2.9 34% Dusan Tadic 2.9 34% Nathan Redmond 2.9 34% Pedro 2.95 34% Dele Alli 3 33% Philippe Coutinho 3 33% Jermain Defoe 3.1 32% Andy Carroll 3.15 32% Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.3 30% Christian Eriksen 3.4 29% Paul Pogba 3.4 29% Willian 3.45 29% Riyad Mahrez 3.45 29% Theo Walcott 3.6 28% Alvaro Negredo 3.75 27% MBaye Niang 3.75 27% Andre Ayew 3.8 26% Raheem Sterling 4.1 24% Joshua King 4.2 24% Leroy Sane 4.2 24% Rudy Gestede 4.2 24% Marko Arnautovic 4.4 23% Kamil Grosicki 4.4 23% Benik Afobe 4.5 22% Andre Gray 4.5 22% Kevin de Bruyne 4.5 22% Manuel Lanzini 4.5 22% Peter Crouch 4.5 22% Salomon Rondon 5 20% Sam Vokes 5 20% Christian Benteke 5.25 19% Etienne Capoue 5.6 18% Ross Barkley 6.3 16% Adnan Januzaj 6.5 15% Nacer Chadli 7.5 13% Robbie Brady 7.5 13% Tom Carroll 8 13% Wilfried Zaha 10.5 10%

Diego Costa tops the bookies’ attacking ranks, and dons our captain’s armband, for Gameweek 30, with a 56% chance of finding the net against Crystal Palace. The fiery Spaniard has produced attacking returns in each of his last 4 home games (3 goals, 2 assists), with Sam Allardyce’s men conceding an average of 1.86 goals per game away from home this term – the 6th worst travelling defence in the league.

Sergio Aguero (45%) and Marcus Rashford (43%) join Costa in our front 3 this weekend ahead of games against Arsenal and West Brom respectively. The explosive Argentine has produced attacking returns in 3 of his last 4 (2 goals, 1 assist) and faces an Arsenal side in disarray – the Gunners have conceded an average of 2 goals per game recently (12 in 6). Rashford, meanwhile, is expected to deputise for the suspended Zlatan Ibrahimovic up front for United. The Baggies have only managed 1 clean sheet away from home this term, all the way back on the opening day of the season.

In midfield, Eden Hazard (43%) attracts top billing as we double up on Chelsea’s attacking assets ahead of their game against Crystal Palace. The Belgian superstar has produced fantasy returns in 4 of his last 5 outings (2 goals, 2 assists). Heung-min Son (39%) joins Hazard in our midfield, with the bookies’ rating him highly due to his OOP prospects – the South Korean is current playing up front for Tottenham in the absence of Harry Kane.

Two derby participants complete our starting XI for Gameweek 30 – Liverpool’s Sadio Mane (37%) and Southampton’s Nathan Redmond (34%). 3 goals and an assist in his last 3 home games bode well for the Senegalese speedster ahead of the Merseyside derby at Anfield on Saturday lunchtime. Redmond, meanwhile, bagged a brace against Watford back in Gameweek 27 to remind us of his explosive, if inconsistent, potential. South Coast rivals Bournemouth have conceded 12 goals in their last 4 away games, highlighting Redmond’s appeal this weekend. Etienne Capoue (18%) once again completes our squad with his £4.5m valuation vital for our budget.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Alexis Sanchez (37%), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (36%), Roberto Firmino (36%), Dusan Tadic and Pedro (both 34%), but they all miss out on our squad due to budget constraints.