Bernie Sanders is riding a wave of momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, but his performance in Sunday night’s debate failed to dislodge Hillary Clinton from her perch as national front-runner for the Democratic nomination.

That’s according to Democratic members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of leading strategists, operatives and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and the two states that will follow with nominating contests next month: Nevada and South Carolina, where Sunday’s debate was held.


“She wins anytime her opponents don't draw blood,” said a New Hampshire Democrat who, like all the insiders, completed the survey anonymously.

The debate, which also included former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, was the final clash before Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire cast the first ballots this year, and insiders split along partisan lines as to which candidate emerged stronger. More than three-quarters of Democratic insiders surveyed immediately following the prime-time forum said Clinton won the debate, compared with just over 20 percent who picked Sanders as the winner. But among Republicans, Sanders was the runaway victor: Two-thirds said Sanders won, to 20 percent for Clinton.

Most Democratic insiders felt Clinton effectively dinged Sanders with her aggressive approach to Sanders’ opposition to some stricter gun laws and his statements supporting a single-payer health care system.

“She gave as good as she got,” said an Iowa Democrat. “Sanders at times seemed unable to control his emotions.”

“The conjuring up of Bernie Sanders' voting record on several issues took a nick out of his vaunted, saintly consistency,” added a Nevada Democrat.

Republicans vigorously disagreed, arguing that Clinton did little to reverse Sanders’ surge, which has propelled him into an apparent tie in the Iowa caucuses and a significant advantage in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. (Clinton is still running substantially ahead nationally, including a 25-point lead in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday morning.)

“Hillary probably did well enough, but she just can't shake Bernie,” said an Iowa Republican. “His anger with Wall Street and campaign finance coupled with his unabashed support for a panacea of liberal ideas is just what the base wants to hear. Just as [Donald] Trump fills the vacuum for strident leadership Republicans thirst for, Bernie appeals to those on the left that have a distinct version of the way things ‘should be.’ Tonight, Bernie stuck to those ideals while repeatedly reminding Democratic voters why Hillary is a flawed candidate.”

Not all Democrats credited Clinton with the win — some argued that Sanders did well in a format where his opponent had thrived in three previous debates.

“It was a draw,” said one New Hampshire Democrat, “and in that case Bernie won because this is Hillary's strength, and tonight he went toe for toe with her.”

“All three were the best they've been,” added another New Hampshire Democrat. “Bernie owned it though.”

To bring the debate dynamics into sharper relief, insiders were asked about three specific exchanges between the two leading Democratic candidates: gun policy, health care and Clinton’s ties to Wall Street.

Vast majorities of insiders in both parties thought Clinton drew blood against Sanders on the Vermont senator’s past opposition to some stricter gun laws. Clinton cited Sanders’ past opposition to the Brady Bill and measures that held gun-makers liable for deaths using their product.

“Either Bernie has a blind spot on this issue,” said one Iowa Democrat, “or he's keeping an eye on the rear-view mirror for reelection back home.”

Even Republicans, who are typically critical in their assessments of Clinton performances, awarded this round to the former secretary of state.

“When you're explaining, you're losing,” said an Iowa Republican. “And Bernie is still explaining on guns.”

On health care, Democratic insiders felt Clinton’s attacks were effective, while Republicans were split — with some arguing that Sanders projected a more positive vision for health care policy.

“By justly questioning Sanders' commitment to the Affordable Care Act, Hillary implicitly questioned his loyalty to President Obama,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.

“On health care, Hillary is process, and Sanders is passion,” a South Carolina Republican countered.

Perhaps the sharpest clash of the night was on Wall Street. Sanders implicitly criticized Clinton for accepting campaign donations and speaking fees from financial services firms — and insiders in both parties credited Sanders with bruising Clinton while also reinforcing his strongest issues.

A number of Democrats who otherwise credited Clinton with having a strong night pointed out that she did not respond to Sanders’ implication that she received hundreds of thousands of dollars in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs.

“Bernie won by pummeling Clinton on her coziness” with Wall Street, said a Nevada Democrat. “She didn't do herself any favors by failing to respond to the Goldman speaking fee criticism.”

“Clinton didn't even respond to the Goldman speaking fee jabs that Sanders [threw] at her,” said another Nevada Democrat. “Seems like he might've caught her off-guard, and she stumbled.”

Some Democrats felt Sanders botched the attack, however.

“Bernie quickly ramped up into a frenzy,” an Iowa Democrat said. “He stepped over the line from passionately debating to ranting.”

Republicans overwhelmingly thought Sanders got the better of this exchange.

“Sanders is going to win this one every time,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “Clinton (and O'Malley) need to understand they are playing on foreign turf and work to shorten these exchanges and move on to the next question.”

Broadly speaking, some Democrats thought the debate’s focus on Sanders — he spoke for longer than Clinton, according to POLITICO’s calculations — may have backfired.

“This turned out to be a referendum on his candidacy, and not in a good way,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “He spent most of the night on defense, which in turn made him look nervous. Finally, South Carolina is not New Hampshire. A number of times the applause lines he looked like he was expecting mid-speech simply never came.”

These are the members of the POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this special post-debate survey:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Richard S. Rogers, Nick Ryan, Matt Schultz, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, William O’Brien, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Karen Testerman, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams, Ethan Zorfas

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.