Paul Goldschmidt has been a fantasy stalwart for the better part of six seasons. His 162-game average is .295/106/30/106/20. There’s something satisfying about Goldy having the same number of runs and RBI but also the clean 30 HR, 20 SB average. That 162-game average is the definition of a five category fantasy stud. The news of the humidor managed to drop Goldschmidt’s average draft position from around fourth overall to between 10-14 overall. That’s a still a first round pick in most cases, so owners are growing tired of this sluggish start. So, what’s wrong with Goldschmidt? Is his performance a result of the humidor or are there more factors at play here?

At this point in the season, we can’t ignore Goldschmidt’s poor numbers at home and immediately blame the humidor. I can’t deny that the humidor at Chase Field is playing a huge roll in suppressing power. In 2017, the Diamondbacks averaged 1.51 home runs per game at home; thus far in 2018, Diamondbacks hitters have averaged 0.68 home runs per game at home! How about on the road? To date in 2018, the DBacks have averaged 1.53 home runs per game, or 225% more dingers on the road. Not surprising, the DBacks are slugging .737 on the road and only .645 at home. Goldschmidt is feeling it more than anyone, here’s his home/road splits this year.

AVG OBP SLG BABIP HR K% BB% Home 0.140 0.321 0.209 0.231 0 31.2 19.3 Road 0.294 0.351 0.559 0.372 4 28.4 8.1

Yeah, that’s bad. The main effects of the humidor will add weight to the baseball by adding moisture to the ball and will decrease exit velocities. Lower exit velocities and heavier baseballs is going to significantly reduce the distance balls travel, relatively speaking. Hmm, I guess science is winning out on this one.

With this information, let’s compare Goldschmidt’s exit velocities between 2017 and 2018. His average exit velocity is down 2.2 mph from 2017 (91.4 mph) to 2018 (89.2 mph). That’s certainly concerning, but the majority of that may attributed to the effect of the humidor, especially since the Diamondbacks have played nine more games at home than on the road so far this year. However, his exit velocity against fastballs is down a whopping 4.2 mph this year. Goldy typically mashes fastballs, his slugging against fastballs in 2017 was .660; in 2018 it’s down to a still solid but un-Goldschmidt like .487. While the humidor is clearly having an effect on Goldschmidt’s production, his struggles actually started in the 2nd half of2017. His increased swing and miss rate and decreased hard contact began in late June of 2017, save for the month of August.

Keep in mind Goldschmidt sees a much higher percentage of fastballs (red line) than any other pitch type. The bump up in swing and miss% on the fastballs is more dramatic than the graph shows.

An incredibly hot month of August partially masked a sub-par 2nd half for Goldschmidt. The struggles and poor approach from July and September of 2017 mimic Goldschmidt’s 2018 to date. Since July of 2017, Goldschmidt is riding a 4.5 month stretch of poor exit velocity and increased swing and miss rate with only one positive month within that timeframe. Yes, Goldy’s SwStr rate has increased 1.3% since 2017, but that’s not all that concerning and doesn’t explain the nearly 8% jump in his strikeout rate. The real culprit is the first-pitch strike percentage which currently is 69% (nice). That’s a 10% increase from 2017 and 11% over his career F-Strike%. When a pitcher can get ahead that often, it puts the hitter, Goldschmidt in this case, at a disadvantage. Goldschmidt’s patient nature has kept a strong walk rate but at the expense of everything else.

His current patient/”wait for his pitch” approach is clearly not working as pitchers continue to attack him early in the count. He needs to adjust and be more aggressive on first pitch fastballs. Goldschmidt has had the most success in his career, like most hitters, against fastballs. The difference in 2018, instead of pitchers working from behind in the count grooving fastballs on 2-0, 3-1 counts, they are now getting ahead 0-1 and can now throw off-speed/breaking pitches putting Goldschmidt at a disadvantage.

I took a quick inventory of instances in both 2017 and 2018 where Goldschmidt was in an unfavorable count of 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, or 2-2. In 2017 he was in an unfavorable count just under 42.6% percent of the time. In 2018, he’s been in an unfavorable count 49% of the time. Typically batting average takes a jump of over .100 points and slugging is about .300-.400 points higher in favorable counts. That’s an old article but it’s principles remain the same as today.

Continuing with his plate discipline or lack thereof (yes there’s more), you can see that his zone contact (which is contact percentage on balls swung on in the zone) is down 5%. The league average for Z-Contact is near 83%, Goldy’s Z-Contact is at 75.5%; it’s odd to see him that far below the league average. What’s interesting, is his O-Contact (contact on balls swung on outside the zone) is the same as last year and in year’s past. What this essentially means other than he’s making less contact, a higher percentage of balls he’s making contact with are out of the zone.

Again, the results bare this out. Goldschmidt’s career BABIP is an incredible .354; in 2018, it’s an even .295. In addition to the contact outside the zone, his infield fly ball percentage is up to 11.4% and his soft contact is more than double what it was in 2017 (22.0% in 2018 vs 11% in 2017). Again, this justifies a decrease in BABIP among other statistics.

It’s not all doom and gloom; xStats paints a little bit brighter picture with some of the underlying numbers. xStats shows both his high-drive percentage remains strong and poorly-hit balls are down 5% from previous years and currently half of the league average. So, that’s where there should be some positive regression but it’s not enough data to show that Goldy is the same player he’s always been.

Do you want more bad news Goldschmidt owners? Do you know how well (poorly) Goldy has performed against right-handed pitchers in 2018? No, well I’ll tell you. He’s hit .174 with 1 HR and 40 strikeouts against righties this year. That’s nearly a 32% K rate and a .277 BABIP, which doesn’t scream significant positive regression. Goldschmidt is a career .284 hitter against right-handed pitching. Luckily for him, he’s still murdering (not literally) left-handed pitchers.

As I approach 1200 words on why Goldschmidt owners should be panicked, save for the small xStats blurb, the question remains, what to do with Goldy? As I mentioned, you drafted Goldschmidt as your first round pick, you can’t just sell him for a top 75 player or lower. At that point you’re taking a complete loss because you’ve got next to nothing from him this year. I’m at least somewhat optimistic that the veteran All-Star can make the necessary adjustments to improve on his poor start to 2018. However, those approach changes I discussed are required before I am confident that Goldschmidt will post top 10 numbers at the position. With those adjustments, owners can at least feel confident the partially salvage the season even if the net result is not what was expected on draft day.

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