india

Updated: Sep 02, 2019 16:27 IST

Land and sea surface temperature across the world are likely to be above average during September to November, according to World Meteorological Organisation’s seasonal update released on Monday.

This, despite the absence of full blown El Nino conditions. El Nino conditions have been borderline since October 2018 and became neutral last month.

“July 2019 was the hottest month on record, with heatwaves and other extreme weather, even without a strong El Niño event,” said Maxx Dilley, Director of WMO Climate Adaptation and Prediction Branch. “The signal from human-induced climate change has now become more powerful than that from a major natural force of nature,” he added.

Dilley’s comments on climate change came as 14th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) being hosted by India is set to begin.

“Slightly above average sea surface temperatures are most likely for the rest of 2019 and into early 2020, although remaining within ENSO-neutral levels,” the update said.

The chance of neutral El Nino conditions during September-November 2019 is estimated at about 60%, while chances for El Niño and La Niña are about 30% and 10%, respectively.

Although neutral conditions are most likely through the December-February 2019-20 season, the chance for a return to El Niño rises slightly to 35%, according to the update, which is based on forecast models and expert opinion from around the globe.

According to the Global Seasonal Climate Update, the temperature forecast for September-November 2019 leans quite strongly towards above-normal land temperature, especially in tropical latitudes. Near-average precipitation conditions are likely in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with above normal precipitation in the western Pacific and southwestern Indian Ocean extending into equatorial Africa.

“These expected anomalies, if they materialize, will have human impacts”, said Dilley.

El Nino is a climate pattern characterized by above normal sea surface temperatures over equatorial Pacific Ocean which contributes to above normal land temperatures in the tropical latitudes. El Nino years in India are linked to below normal monsoon rains and higher than normal frequency of heat waves.