#Trump — A more Nationalistic Foreign Policy

That might not necessarily be a bad thing, in Republicans point of view, as can be seen from his campaign.

There have been a lot of statements from the Republican presidential candidate. His focus has been on immigration as well as the economy. Mexico is one of his focal points in the primaries and caucuses during the election. A part of his most famous speech is:

“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” — Donald Trump

Trump still see Mexico as a ‘third world country’ who is dominated by drug cartels and desperate immigrants, however, what would his presidency mean for Mexico? In my opinion; Nothing at all. As I see it, Mexico is one of the rising economic stars in the next decades and it will soon be America’s new prime trading partner.

Mexico is today the largest trading partner for Texas and as well as the entire American Southwest when looking at exports and soon imports as well.

The presidency is very weak domestically and if the new president tries to stop the flow of trucks across the border, the two largest states in the union will protest like America has never seen.

Then what about the wall? In my opinion: The wall can be built, but what is the purpose? There is today more Mexican nationals going back and a wall would then keep them in the US. The trucks will pass through the wall anyway. This is the reality.

The “wall” is more an idéa and a statement about nationalism. The idéa is that Donald Trump is going to protect us from “the others” and disrupt global free trade to bring back jobs to America.

Free trade is something that democratic candidate Bernie Sanders has limited love fore as well when looking at the TPP and NAFTA.

I believe that the anti-free trade is a fall out of the economic disparity in the United States due to the fact that the middle class is disappearing. However, Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump has opposite views when it comes to inclusion v.s. exclusion of immigrants.

In the end, it does not mather. Free Trade and the dependency on exports has already started its descent globally. You can see this in Russia, China and soon Germany as well. Exporters are dependent on their customers while the customers can buy from whomever they want. A domino effect then starts rolling when a country’s exports declines and the country may go into recession. America, as a low exporter, does not have these problems.

Will the relationship with Mexico even change? As I see it; The president has very little power where nothing can be dune without the Congress’s support. If you have Texas (R) and California (D) against you, you’re not going to accomplish anything. The relationship would probably continue on the way it has been, just with more drama from the Donald.

China is another country he has focused on. In my opinion; China is not the same today as 10 years ago. China is now in a transition from a high-growth/low-wage to a more normal economy. A rich coastal region with ethnically Han Chinese and a poorer interior with other ethnicities has historically lead to a fractured country and regionalism. China may, therefore, start to fracture into smaller countries in the future in my view.

Trump has a back to the future mentality when it comes to international affairs and the global system.

Mr. Trump may not understand the realities of today’s world, but, his message about “America must look at its self-interest”. This is in line with my forecasts about a maturing the United States and the balance of power strategy.

Conclusively: