Week 2 (at ATL) and 5 (NYJ) were pass-heavy, when adjusted for game script. Week 1 (TB) and 3 (DET) were more run-heavy than is typical for a Pederson offense. A significant proportion of 2019’s run-heavy tilt is due to the sublime Green Bay game at Lambeau when Doug passed the ball 24.2% less than what would have been expected, given the game script. This game was, by far, the most run-heavy of his head coaching career. There was reasoning behind this anomaly: Mike Pettine chose to keep his defensive personnel in dime and nickel versus the Eagles two tight end sets, allowing Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert to run block against relatively light boxes. As Jason Kelce pithily explained to Sheil Kapadia, the objective in the game was to put the defense in a bind: “Everything’s just trying to get honest numbers out of them.”

Had Pettine loaded the box with base personnel, you can be sure that the Eagles would have been pass-heavy, particularly with Goedert and Ertz on the field. Removing the unusual circumstances of the Green Bay game, the Eagles -0.5% Pass Heavy Index would rank 17th in the league. Their current league rank, in terms of pass-run ratio, is at least partly an artifact of the game-theoretical nature of Doug Pederson’s offense, which is predicated on running versus light boxes and passing versus heavy boxes.

Per the NFL ScrapR box score app created by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin, this tactic paid huge dividends. The Eagles at Green Bay had both a higher success rate and expected points added (EPA) per play in the running game, compared with the passing game.