Graph #1: The Federal Funds Rate and its High-Side Trend since the Peak

One of the arguments for raising interest rates is that we need rates high enough that they can be cut when the next recession comes.It seems to me anyone who makes that argument ought to admit in the same breath that it's raising interest rates that brings on recession. I don't know what to do about that, other than dismiss both the argument and the admission.But I do know that the argument has been made. So suppose we take it at face value and say: Okay, how high do we want the interest rate to be? (Talking about the policy rate here, the Federal Funds rate.)How high do we want the Federal Funds rate to be? I don't know the answer. But here's another question:How high can rates go before they create another recession?I don't know the answer to that one, either. But I know how high rates have been in the past. And I know that the trend of rates has been downhill since 1981.And I'm pretty sure that the policy rate going up during 2004, 05, and 06 is what created the crisis of 07 and the recession of 08. Almost like the good old days (the 1970s) when the Federal Reserve created recession after recession on purpose to bring inflation down. And I'm pretty sure also that the policy rate going up, not in 1994 and 1995, but in 1999 and 2000 is what created the recession of 2001.So when I make my interest rate trend line, I will omit data points for the peaks before the 2001 recession and the 2008 recession. Because I don't want to show what we have to do to create another recession. I want to show what we have to do to NOT create another recession.Here's the graph:Looks like the Fed can safely raise interest rates to about 2%.