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A new effort to let Iowans virtually caucus for president could expand participation in the 2020 Democratic caucuses by almost a third, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

The Iowa Democratic Party last week announced a dramatic expansion of its decades-old caucus rules to allow people to participate even if they can’t physically be present at their precinct site at 7 p.m. Feb. 3, 2020. The party has called for a series of “virtual” caucuses, where Iowa Democrats could participate through their phones or smart devices. No matter how many people take the party up on that option, their votes would count for only 10 percent of the total.

The changes are intended to benefit people like Lori Bees, 57, a poll respondent and Waukee resident who says she would love to caucus but has problems with her knees that make it difficult to stand or navigate crowded spaces.

“Due to schedule things, I couldn’t attend" in the past, Bees said. “And now that I have the time, I don’t have the physical ability to do it. So a teleconference or something over the computer, I would definitely be very interested in participating that way.”

The poll of 803 Iowa adults was conducted Feb. 10-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by Selzer & Co.

The results show that 21 percent of Iowans say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses. Eight percent initially said they were unlikely to caucus for Democrats in person, but also say they would definitely or probably participate if they had the option to do so remotely.

All told, the results suggest 29 percent of Iowa adults expect to participate in the Democratic caucuses in 2020. Twenty-eight percent of those say they would do so remotely.

According to the poll, 49 percent of Iowans say they have participated in the caucuses at some point in their lives. Twenty-one percent have caucused for Republicans, 20 percent have caucused with Democrats, and 8 percent have caucused with both. Forty-nine percent of Iowans say they have never caucused and 2 percent are unsure.

Changes are designed to expand access

For years, critics have complained that Iowa’s caucus process disenfranchises people who would otherwise participate.

A record 240,000 people participated in the 2008 caucuses — about 40 percent of Iowa’s registered Democrats. In contrast, 78 percent of registered Democrats participated in the general election that year.

“Whether someone is a shift worker, a single parent, in the military, living overseas or experiences mobility issues — this process will now give these individuals a voice in selecting the next president of the United States,” Iowa Democratic Party chairman Troy Price told reporters last week. “The virtual caucus allows us to live up to the values of our party.”

The changes, unveiled Feb. 11, would allow Iowa Democrats to register with the state party and then receive instructions to allow them to participate in one of six virtual caucuses in the six days leading up to caucus day on Feb. 3, 2020.

People who participate virtually would have their results tabulated separately from those who participate in-person. The virtual results would be aggregated by congressional district and would account for 10 percent of the total statewide delegate equivalents, regardless of how many people participate.

For campaigns, which agonize and strategize over the “caucus math” of turning out supporters, the rule changes could present new challenges.

Norm Sterzenbach, a Democratic strategist who has been involved in shaping the new virtual caucusing procedures, said he believes campaigns will present the new option to supporters who wouldn’t otherwise attend. He said he doesn’t think campaigns will be pushing their supporters to the virtual option if they want to or can attend in person.

“A candidate who wants to be successful in the caucuses overall, in the delegate count, needs to make sure they’re successful on Feb. 3 in the room,” he said. “So they’re going to push their people to show up where possible. But there is still this 10 percent that comes from the virtual caucus, so they don’t want to give that up.”

He said those who designed the virtual option wanted to preserve the party-building aspect that has long been the foundation of Iowa’s process.

“We want to break down barriers for people to have access to the caucuses, to be sure, and to have more people participate,” Sterzenbach said. “But it’s really the stuff that happens in the room that makes this unique, and so we are hoping that people will want to participate in person.”

Who is more likely to attend a virtual caucus?

According to the poll, people who say they would probably or definitely participate in a remote caucusing option differ demographically from those who say they will show up at their precinct caucuses.

Age: Those who are younger than 35 account for 30 percent of the total number of people who say they would caucus in person, but account for 40 percent of those who say they would caucus virtually.

Income: Those with a household income of less than $50,000 account for 31 percent of likely in-person caucusgoers but 48 percent of likely remote participants.

Education: Forty-two percent of the likely in-person attendees have college degrees compared with 34 percent of potential remote participants. Remote participation is more attractive to those with no more than a high school education — they make up 34 percent of those who say they are likely to participate by phone but 19 percent of those who said they would show up on caucus night.

Party identification: Thirty-one percent of those who say they plan to go to a caucus site define themselves as independents, but the share grows to half of those who say they'll caucus remotely. Republicans make up just 2 percent of those planning to attend in person, but 11 percent of potential remote participants.

Expanded caucus options won't entice some Iowans

However, even with new access to virtual caucusing, other poll respondents said they still would not participate for a variety of reasons.

Sharon Wilson, a 54-year-old Indianola resident, said she actively follows politics and believes it is her civic duty to vote. She said she would support “a Democratic dogcatcher — I'm serious!” in 2020 if one were running against Republican President Donald Trump.

A neuro-muscular disease makes it difficult for Wilson to navigate in her own home, let alone in public, she said. She’s exactly the kind of person the Iowa Democratic Party hopes to bring into the process. But even with the option to participate in the caucuses virtually, Wilson said only that she “might” take part.

February of 2020 would be too early to commit to a presidential candidate, Wilson said.

“It’s too soon to see exactly how people stand up to criticism and ads and how much further they go into explaining what their platform is and why,” she said.

About this poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Feb. 10-13 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 803 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 803 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.