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The Ontario election race is heating up as a new poll shows the New Democrats gaining momentum and Progressive Conservatives losing ground.

If the election were held tomorrow, 37 per cent of decided voters in Ontario would vote NDP, up two points since last week, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. Thirty-six per cent would vote for the PCs, which is down four points since last week.

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“This [trend] has been happening for the last few weeks; the last poll showed NDP picking up and it continues to surge across the province,” pollster Darrel Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, explained. “It seems like the Conservatives reached a peak.”

He added that the Liberals continue to see trouble in the polls.

The new poll showed Liberals are still holding relatively steady in the race, with 23 per cent of the popular vote. Meanwhile, four per cent of the respondents said they would vote for another party, like the Green Party. Nearly two in 10 were unsure.

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The poll suggested that Doug Ford’s “Tory tumble” was largely due to eroding support in the 905-region of Toronto. Typically those with this area code live in some of Toronto’s populous suburbs, including Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Richmond Hill and Durham.

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“Conservatives usually tend to be strong in 905 area, and it disappeared in this poll,” Bricker said. The collapse of Liberal party support in the area is probably the reason why NDP are gaining ground in the area, he added.

According to the Ipsos poll:

The poll also said the link between demographics and vote preference is “very clear in this election.” For example, men favour the Tories (42 per cent), while women strongly prefer the NDP (40 per cent).

Bricker said women tend to lean towards the NDP because Doug Ford is not appealing to this demographic.

While more than two weeks remain before the June 7 vote, four in 10 of Ontario respondents believe that NDP leader Andrea Horwath is gaining the most popularity and momentum in this election.

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Despite the fact that the NDP continues to gain while the PCs have witnessed their first measurable stumble in the horserace, a majority (55 per cent) of Ontarians still believe the Tories will win the election, while two in 10 believe the Liberals or the NDP will win.

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Most NDP voters also don’t think the party will actually win, according to the poll. Among NDP voters, 48 per cent think the Tories will win, while 38 per cent think the NDP will take the election.

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However, a big question remains: can any of the parties can get voters to turn up on election day?

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“We know that certain groups have a stronger tendency to participate [on election day] and those people tend to be conservative,” Bricker said.

“The people who are less sure of their choice and less likely to participate are voting for the NDP. So can Andrea Horwath galvanize the support she has? A low turn out in the election will be an advantage for the Conservatives,” he added.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 18 to 21, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Ontarians eligible to vote and aged 18+ from Ipsos’ online panel was interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled.