Oldham West & Royton has been an extremely safe Labour seat since it was first contested in 1997. The closest it has ever been was in 2010 when the late Michael Meacher held with a 9,352 majority. His passing earlier this year has led to the first by-election of this parliament set for Thursday 3 December. On the face of it, this is an extremely dull contest with an obvious winner. But, make no mistake, UKIP can win.

The talk on the ground has been that Labour are in trouble but would have enough to hold on for quite a while. It would be a lot closer than the talking heads were predicting but they would get over the line. The Paris attacks on Friday night though coupled with Jeremy Corbyn's response has opened the door for UKIP.

Isabel Hartman writes in The Spectator about how Labour are going down with white working class voters. Not to spoil the story but the answer is 'not well'. A lot of people are scared and when they are scared they don't just drift right, they bolt right. UKIP received over 20% in nine out of the 11 wards in the 2015 council elections. Labour performed significantly better, but UKIP have a base to work from and that shouldn't be overlooked.

On Labour's side is a very large Asian community in this constituency, 24.6% of registered voters identify as Muslim and that is the 19th highest of any constituency in the country. This community you'd fully expect will come out for Labour and very strongly. The problem Labour face is their isn't much of a Lib Dem or Green base to squeeze. UKIP have a significant Conservative vote to win over.

By-elections are strange creatures. Whoever saw George Galloway's Respect win in Bradford East in 2012? He didn't just win, he got over 50% of the vote in an extremely safe Labour seat. In the Heywood & Middleton by-election last year, UKIP polled 19% behind Labour five days out from election day. When it came to the actual votes though they were just 2.2% down.

UKIP used the murder of Middleton-born Lee Rigby by two men citing Islam as their primary motivation as a big part of their by-election campaign there. They made people fearful and they have every opportunity to do something similar in this by-election, which resembles that one closely.

This will come down to whether the politics of fear can beat the politics of Jeremy Corbyn. This should be a slam dunk for the new Labour leader, a chance to show his worried MPs that he can win the tough elections. If he can't hold a safe Labour seat then the talk of a Christmas coup will get very loud indeed. It is already all but open warfare within the parliamentary Labour party, a loss here and all bets are off.

The Betfair Oldham West & Royton market has Labour at [1.22] which is just way too short. UKIP are currently trading at [5.1] and that is tremendous value. The power of fear is a formidable one in elections and even more so in by-elections. UKIP are still the protest party of choice for many and protest parties win these types of contests.



Recommended Bet

Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election at [5.1] on the Betfair Exchange.