by Vincent Verhei

As you may have heard, the Buffalo Bills made a switch at quarterback. It did not go well, nor did it last long. It's what most of the football world was talking about on Sunday, and even into Monday morning. It's a good chunk of what we were talking about too. Hardly anyone, however, is talking about the wide receiver who played against Buffalo, whose very good day was overshadowed by the Bills quarterback's very bad day. In some ways, though, that receiver's day was even more historic, and for obviously more favorable reasons.

But we'll begin with that Bills quarterback. Nathan Peterman played two years at the University of Tennessee, then transferred to Pittsburgh, where he was a two-year starter for the Panthers. In his senior year of 2016, he led the Atlantic Coast Conference in yards per pass and NCAA passer rating, ahead of future first-round draft picks Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson. Still, QBASE was skeptical of his chances for NFL success. That was partly due to the weak schedule of defenses he faced, and partly because his stats were inflated by the talents of the teammates around him. (Pitt linemen Dorian Johnson and Adam Bisnowaty were both drafted, though neither has played in a game yet -- Johnson was drafted by Arizona, but failed to make the team and is now with Houston.)

Traditional media outlets were lukewarm on Peterman too. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com noted that Peterman "will have to be mindful to drive the ball on pro level to avoid the ballhawks who are lurking at safety" and that he "has to prove he has enough arm to challenge the same tight windows he did in college." Dane Brugler of NFLDraftScout.com said that Peterman's weaknesses included "erratic ball placement" and being "guilty of panicked decisions, forcing the ball into heavy coverage." In the end, Peterman ended up going to Buffalo in the fifth round, the 171st player drafted overall and the eighth quarterback to go off the boards. The Bills themselves passed on Peterman four times to select cornerback Tre'Davious White, receiver Zay Jones, guard Dion Dawkins, and linebacker Matt Milano. Peterman made T.J. Yates and Cardale Jones expendable, but there was nothing at the time to indicate he would be anything more than a backup quarterback with some developmental upside.

Less than six months later, the Bills found themselves at 5-4. Thanks in part to a hysterically shallow pool of quality teams in the AFC, they were still making a serious push to make the playoffs for the first time this century. However, they were coming off two defeats in a row, the latter a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. Coach Sean McDermott decided it was time to shake things up, and inexplicably chose to make a switch at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor joined the Bills two years ago, and finished among the top 20 quarterbacks in passing DYAR and DVOA in both 2015 and 2016. He had slipped a bit in 2017 -- 21st in DYAR through 10 weeks, and 20th in DVOA. Should Taylor be held accountable for that decline? Consider that his top three wide receivers in 2016 were Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin. Watkins and Woods are currently plying their trade for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be listed at fourth in the league in pass offense DVOA when the new ratings come out on Tuesday evening, and Goodwin is now in San Francisco. Taylor has been left trying to piece together an offense with Jones, who has often looked lost during his rookie season; Jordan Matthews, who was deemed expendable by the Eagles just three years after they drafted him in the second round in 2014; and Deonte Thompson, a 28-year-old journeyman who was released by the Bears in October. Through 10 weeks, the Bills had caught 170 passes and dropped 20 (according to Sports Info Solutions), a drop rate of 11 percent that was one of the 10 worst in football.

Regardless, McDermott had made up his mind. Taylor was the scapegoat, and Peterman was the starter. And the results were disastrous. Four of Buffalo's first five drives ended in interceptions; the other was a 64-yard touchdown drive in which Peterman had two handoffs and no passes. The Bills then went three-and-out in back-to-back possessions, recovering a Peterman fumble in the process. Finally, Peterman was intercepted once more before halftime. When the third quarter began, Peterman was back on the bench where he belonged and Taylor was taking snaps once more. Mind you, Taylor wasn't perfect either -- he fumbled on a Joey Bosa sack, and Melvin Ingram returned the ball for a touchdown -- but he did lead three scoring drives, throwing for one touchdown and running for another. The logical decision now would be to stick with Taylor through the end of the year, but if the Bills organization were capable of making logical decisions, they would not have let five presidential elections go by without making the playoffs.

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Peterman's final statline: 6-of-14 for 66 yards with no touchdowns, no sacks, and five interceptions. That's very bad -- it's -215 DYAR, to be precise. But it's not the worst game of all time. It's not in the worst 50 games of all time. At this point, it's not even the worst game this year -- that honor still goes to Andy Dalton's four-interception, five-sack meltdown against Baltimore in Week 1. That game looks a lot better now than it did at the time; with updated opponent adjustments, it has jumped from -282 DYAR to -217, still a hair worse than Peterman's. The difference is slight enough that fluctuating baselines and opponent adjustments could push Peterman's game below Dalton's by the end of the year, but the bigger issue here is playing time. Dalton played every snap against the Ravens, while Peterman was benched at halftime against the Chargers. DYAR is a counting stat, and Dalton had more opportunities to rack up negative DYAR than Peterman did.

We can account for that by looking dividing DYAR by dropbacks. This should give us a reasonable measurement of who sucked the most in the least amount of plays. Dalton, for example, had -240 passing DYAR in 31 passes and five sacks, 36 total dropbacks. That works out to -6.7 DYAR per dropback. Peterman, meanwhile, had -213 DYAR in only 14 plays, a ratio of -15.2 DYAR per dropback that is more than twice as bad as Dalton's. In fact, it's worse than any game Dalton ever played. It's worse than any game ever for Blaine Gabbert, or Josh McCown, or Ryan Leaf, or any of the other horrible quarterbacks you could probably think of. In nearly 30 years of quarterback statistics, we only found two players who had -200 passing DYAR in a game, and also had a DYAR-per-dropback figure worse than Peterman's against L.A.:

In Week 17 of 1997, the Indianapolis Colts were playing the Minnesota Vikings and rotated Jim Harbaugh and Kelly Holcomb at quarterback in what would be their 13th loss of the season. Holcomb was worse by far, going 5-of-8 for 29 yards with no touchdowns, three interceptions, two sacks, and two fumbles. That's -231 passing DYAR in only 10 dropbacks, a breathtaking rate of -23.1 DYAR per dropback.

Again in Week 17, this time in 2006, the Chicago Bears had already won 13 games and clinched home-field advantage in the NFC, and they pulled Rex Grossman at halftime of a 26-7 loss to Green Bay. Grossman was pulled to save him for the playoffs, but his performance warranted a benching anyway: 2-of-12 for 33 yards with no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a sack. That's -217 passing DYAR in 13 dropbacks, an average of -16.7 apiece.

While Peterman was doing … that, Keenan Allen was having a big game for the Chargers. Allen is much more of a known commodity than Peterman. He had a tremendous rookie season in 2013, finishing eighth among wide receivers in DYAR and fifth in DVOA. Since then, however, he has struggled with injuries, missing 25 out of 48 games from 2014 to 2016 and never finishing in the top 20 in either DVOA or DYAR. Allen hasn't missed a game this year, but for the most part his production has leveled out at fair-to-middlin' -- 33rd with 75 DYAR through Week 10, and 44th with a -1.4% DVOA.

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And then Allen went off against Buffalo, catching 12 passes in 13 targets for 159 yards and a pair of scores, while rushing one time for 3 yards. That gave Allen 104 total DYAR, the best game by a wide receiver so far in 2017 and just the 47th 100-plus-DYAR game we have on record. There's a good chance this will be the best wide receiver game of the year. Since 2012, only one season has seen multiple 100-DYAR games (that was 2013, when there were gobs of them -- Josh Gordon, Eric Decker, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, and Marvin Jones all pulled it off). And while Buffalo is on the brink of another lost season, Los Angeles has reason for optimism, both short- and long-term. At 4-6, the Chargers are just a game behind the Ravens and Bills for the final wild-card spot, with a win in hand over the Bills. (They are two games behind the 6-4 Chiefs in the AFC West and have already lost to Kansas City, so a division title remains a long shot.) And if Allen can finally stay healthy and productive, he'll be the cornerstone of a very young group of weapons in the L.A. offense -- the Chargers' top five players in catches are all 25 or younger. That will leave the cupboard full for Philip Rivers in his twilight years, or for a younger passer if one is brought in to take over the reins.

One thing is clear though: Allen had a better day than Peterman, as the following table shows:

Keenan Allen vs. Nathan Peterman, Week 11, 2017

Total Plays Abort. Snaps Att Cmp Yds TD INT Sk First downs Failed Cmp Suc% Avg Yds Passes thrown to K.Allen 13 -- 13 12 159 2 0 -- 10 1 85% 12.2 Passes thrown by N.Peterman 15 1 14 6 66 0 5 0 4 0 40% 4.2

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Case Keenum MIN 27/38 280 1 0 0 196 186 10 LARM Keenum is the first starting quarterback this season to play the Rams and not get sacked, and just the second to not throw an interception. Along with opponent adjustments, the lack of negative plays are the biggest reasons he ranks No. 1 this week. He was very good at moving the chains -- on third downs, he went 11-of-13 for 106 yards and eight conversions. That includes eight conversions in ten plays with 7 yards or less to go, and failures with 8, 14, and 32 yards to go. 2. Drew Brees NO 30/41 377 2 1 2 174 171 3 WAS Brees was on absolute fire at the end of this game. From the point Washington took a 15-point lead with about six minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Brees completed each of the 11 passes he threw for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Only one of those completions counted as a failed play: an 8-yard gain on first-and-20. Each of his last seven throws resulted in first downs, including both scores. 3. Kirk Cousins WAS 24/32 322 3 0 2 160 166 -6 NO Brees' opponent on Sunday had a good game too, though Cousins' results at the end of the game were strikingly different. Cousins' 7-yard touchdown to Jeremy Sprinkle put Washington ahead 31-16. Cousins didn't throw another pass until the Saints had tied the game. His next three passes each resulted in first downs, on gains of 12, 10, and 19 yards, but his last two plays of regulation were an intentional grounding and a sack-fumble. Then he had three plays in overtime: an incompletion, a sack, and another incompletion. 4. Matthew Stafford DET 21/31 299 2 0 3 155 157 -2 CHI Stafford went deep early and often against the Bears, with plenty of success. Eleven of his passes traveled at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Seven of them were completed for 169 yards and a touchdown; an21 eighth resulted in a DPI and 34 more yards. 5. Philip Rivers LACH 20/31 251 2 0 1 132 132 0 BUF When the second quarter started, the Chargers had a narrow 10-7 lead. In the next 15 minutes, Rivers went 10-of-13 for 139 yards. Every one of those completions resulted in a first down, including two scores. And the Chargers were then up 37-7 going into halftime. 6. Matt Ryan ATL 19/27 195 2 0 1 131 126 5 SEA 7. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 30/44 299 4 0 3 114 114 1 TEN Add Roethlisberger to the list of quarterbacks who finished on a high note this week. In the fourth quarter, he went 7-of-7 for 59 yards and two touchdowns, with an eighth throw resulting in a DPI and a gain of 13 yards. 8. Matt Moore MIA 17/28 282 1 0 1 105 111 -6 TB Moore entered the game with Miami down 20-7. HIs last pass was a 61-yard touchdown to Kenny Stills that tied the score at 20-20, but the Buccaneers would go on to win on a late field goal (and then get another touchdown when Miami's desperate attempt at a lateral went awry). It might not have come down to that had Moore fared better in the red zone: 2-of-5 for 5 yards and no touchdowns. (A sixth red zone throw resulted in a DPI for 18 yards down to the 1.) 9. Jared Goff LARM 23/36 225 0 0 2 92 87 5 MIN The Rams tried a lot of early-downs passing, but it didn't work out very well. On first downs, Goff went 7-of-12 for just 40 yards. 10. Tyrod Taylor BUF 15/25 158 1 0 1 87 65 22 LACH I was just going to leave a picture here of Tyrod Taylor sipping tea, but since I can't find it now, I guess I'll give you some splits instead. Every pass he threw came with Buffalo down by at least 30 points, so it's not a surprise that his best results came on medium-range throws. On passes that traveled 4 to 12 yards past the line of scrimmage, he went 9-of-9 for 83 yards and a score. 11. Tom Brady NE 30/37 339 3 0 1 86 86 0 OAK Without opponent adjustments, Brady would have been the top quarterback of the week, but, you know. It's the Raiders. Brady completed each of his first 12 passes against Oakland, for a total of 91 yards and a touchdown (there was also a sack mixed in there). 12. Carson Wentz PHI 14/27 168 2 0 0 66 66 1 DAL Wentz started out hot against Dallas, completing each of his first five passes for 71 yards. And then he went into a deep, deep freeze. From that point until halftime, he went 2-of-13 for 9 yards. Whatever was going on, it got sorted out at halftime, and his good and bad plays in the second half were more evenly distributed. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 13. Mitchell Trubisky CHI 18/30 179 1 0 1 64 53 11 DET One reason the Bears were so competitive with Detroit: a lack of negative plays that put them in ultra-long-yardage. Only three of Trubisky's passes came with more than 10 yards to go for a first down, and he was actually pretty productive on those three plays: a 6-yard gain on second-and-12, a 13-yard gain on second-and-15, and a 17-yard gain on second-and-18. Trubisky's counterpart on Sunday, Matthew Stafford, had 10 plays with more than 10 yards to go for a first down, tied for most in the league this week with Marcus Mariota and Drew Brees. 14. Andy Dalton CIN 15/25 154 3 0 2 63 57 6 DEN Dalton did a lot to put himself into critical third downs. On second downs, he went 4-of-6 for a whopping total of 12 yards with zero conversions. Fortunately, he made a bunch of big plays on third downs, going 8-of-10 for 84 yards and six conversions, including all three of his touchdowns. An 11th third-down throw resulted in 15 more yards and another first down on a DPI, though he was also sacked twice. 15. Eli Manning NYG 19/35 205 0 0 0 58 58 0 KC Manning's biggest play was a 34-yard completion to Roger Lewis on fourth-and-5 that set up the winning field goal. Like most of Manning's best plays on Sunday, it came on a deep pass. Manning completed four of his seven deep passes for a combined total of 88 yards. Weirdly, aside from the 34-yarders, his other three completions gained precisely 19 yards each. 16. Ryan Fitzpatrick TB 22/37 275 2 0 1 49 51 -2 MIA A poor day on third downs: 5-of-10 for 47 yards and only two conversions, with one sack. 17. Russell Wilson SEA 26/41 258 2 1 3 29 -11 40 ATL 18. Tom Savage HOU 22/32 229 2 1 1 20 20 0 ARI Not that it was a terrible day for Savage, but it would have been even better if he had quit after his first two drives, when he went 6-of-6 for 50 yards and a touchdown. 19. Blaine Gabbert ARI 22/34 257 3 2 2 16 17 -1 HOU GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: Gabbert now has 17 passing DYAR on the season and -1,910 in his career, still below Josh McCown's total of -1,578 for the worst total passing DYAR on record. It would have been a lot closer, but Gabbert fell apart in the final quarter, going 8-of-15 for 100 yards with one sack, two interceptions, and no touchdowns. He was a top-five passer over the first three quarters of the game this week. 20. Derek Carr OAK 28/49 241 1 1 1 -9 -9 0 NE Carr's first half was miserable: 8-of-14 for 69 yards with an interception and only one first down. His first pass of the second half also resulted in a first down, but by that point the Raiders were down 24-0. 21. Brock Osweiler DEN 23/42 254 1 1 3 -50 -45 -5 CIN Not a good day for Osweiler throwing to his right: 5-of-16 for 47 yards with an interception. 22. Blake Bortles JAC 17/30 154 1 0 2 -67 -74 7 CLE Things went great for Bortles on Jacksonville's first two drives, as he went 3-of-4 for 37 yards and a touchdown. Not much went great for him after that. However, all three of his passes to tight ends worked out: a 10-yard touchdown to Marcedes Lewis, a 16-yard gain on second-and-15 to Lewis, and a 12-yard gain on second-and-10 to James O'Shaughnessy. Which begs the question: why didn't the Jaguars use their tight ends more? Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 23. Marcus Mariota TEN 22/33 306 1 4 5 -67 -83 15 PIT It's a good thing Mariota had a 75-yard touchdown pass to Rishard Mathews in this game, because he could barely do a thing in Pittsburgh territory. On the Steelers' side of the 50, he went 9-of-13 for 77 yards with three sacks and two interceptions. 24. Joe Flacco BAL 22/28 183 1 1 3 -71 -71 0 GB Flacco had 14 failed completions this week, four more than anyone else. He now has 80 failed completions on the year, eight more than anyone else. 25. Alex Smith KC 27/40 230 0 2 1 -84 -98 14 NYG Wanna know how to score nine points and become just the second team to lose to the Giants this year? It helps when you have a performance like Smith's inside the New York 40: 9-of-14 for only 40 yards and two first downs, plus a sack. 26. Brett Hundley GB 22/36 239 0 3 6 -104 -111 6 BAL We've got a lot of comments this week about guys' performance in the red zone or in opponents' territory. For Hundley, the problems actually started outside the Green Bay 40 -- you know, the other 60 percent of the field. In that range, Hundley went 5-of-11 for 53 yards with one first down, one intentional grounding, one interception, and three sacks. 27. Jay Cutler MIA 6/12 83 1 3 0 -115 -112 -3 TB Feast or famine for Cutler. Five of his completions resulted in first downs, and the sixth was a 7-yard gain on first-and-10. But half of his incomplete passes were intercepted. The Bucs had six interceptions in their first nine games, and then three in one half thanks to Cutler. 28. DeShone Kizer CLE 16/32 179 1 2 5 -116 -119 3 JAC Kizer gets a boost of nearly 100 DYAR due to opponent adjustments and still finishes this low. His first quarter was some serious nightmare fuel: sack, interception, sack, incomplete, incomplete. To be sure, he still had his struggles after that, including sack-fumbles on back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-9 for 22 yards with three sacks, two fumbles, and just one conversion. 29. Dak Prescott DAL 18/31 145 0 3 4 -141 -147 6 PHI Prescott has now finished next-to-last two weeks in a row with Tyron Smith on the sidelines. Over those two weeks, he has had the NFL's worst passing statistics by more than 100 DYAR. In the red zone against Philadelphia, he went 2-of-5 for 6 yards with no touchdowns, one sack, and one interception. On third and fourth downs, he went 3-of-11 for 25 yards with two conversions, two interceptions, and one sack-fumble which was returned for an Eagles touchdown. 30. Nathan Peterman BUF 6/14 66 0 5 0 -215 -213 -2 LACH (Click here if you are having trouble loading the image.) (Click here if you are having trouble loading the image.) (Click here if you are having trouble loading the image.) (Click here if you are having trouble loading the image.) (Click here if you are having trouble loading the image.)

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Mark Ingram NO 11 134 1 3/4 21 0 69 68 2 WAS All of Ingram's runs gained at least 2 yards, six gained first downs, four gained 10 yards or more, and two gained 30 yards or more. Fun fact: Ingram and teammate Alvin Kamara are now first and second in rushing DYAR this season. 2. Jordan Howard CHI 15 125 1 0/0 0 0 44 44 0 DET Howard's six first downs on the ground included gains of 12, 12, 16, and 50 yards. Meanwhile, he was hit for no gain or a loss just twice. 3. Leonard Fournette JAC 28 111 0 2/3 7 0 42 56 -14 CLE Fournette would be below replacement level without opponent adjustments, but he winds up third this week because stuffing the run is the one thing the Browns do very well. He had five first downs on the ground, including gains of 12 and 29 yards, while being hit for no gain or a loss five times. 4. LeSean McCoy BUF 13 114 1 1/1 12 1 42 22 20 LACH McCoy's only reception was a touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the 12. He only had three first downs on the ground, but those three plays came on gains of 27, 32, and 37 yards. He was also hit for no gain or a loss five times. 5. Duke Johnson CLE 2 10 0 4/6 56 1 37 8 29 JAC Johnson's two carries resulted in a 7-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 3-yard gain on third-and-2. His catches included a 27-yard touchdown and gains of 7 and 21 yards on second-and-5.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Mark Ingram NO 11 134 1 3/4 21 0 69 68 2 WAS 2. Leonard Fournette JAC 28 111 0 2/3 7 0 42 56 -14 CLE 3. Jordan Howard CHI 15 125 1 0/0 0 0 44 44 0 DET 4. Alfred Morris DAL 17 91 0 0/0 0 0 27 27 0 PHI Four first downs on the ground, including gains of 12, 20, and 22 yards, while being hit for no gain or a loss three times. 5. D'Onta Foreman HOU 10 65 2 3/3 15 0 28 24 4 ARI Foreman fumbled on one of his ten carries, but he still makes the top five because he touchdowns of 3 and 34 yards, plus a 10-yard gain on third-and-1.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Doug Martin TB 19 38 0 2/3 6 0 -39 -29 -10 MIA Only two first downs on the ground and one 10-plus-yard run, with 16 carries of 4 yards or less and seven resulting in no gain or a loss. One of his catches was a 3-yard loss on second-and-2.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Isaiah Crowell CLE 11 18 0 0/0 0 0 -32 -32 0 JAC This is the second week in a row the worst runner of the week has played against Jacksonville, which partly has to do with the fact that Jacksonville's run defense was terrible at the end of the year, but has been outstanding since the trade for Marcell Dareus. That said, Crowell's numbers were horrible in a vacuum: no first downs, only one successful carry (a 5-yard gain on first-and-10, his longest run of the day), and three hits for no gain or a loss.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Keenan Allen LACH 12 13 159 13.2 2 104 BUF Allen's DYAR total includes 103.5 DYAR receiving, 0.2 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 3 yards. Ten of his catches gained first downs; the other two were a 10-yard gain on second-and-11 and a 3-yard gain on first-and-10. His longest catch gained 29 yards. He converted three of his four third-down opportunities. 2. Kenny Stills MIA 7 8 180 25.7 1 59 TB Only one of Stills' catches failed to pick up a first down: a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. He had a 61-yard touchdown and gains of 45 and 26 yards, and would have ranked even higher but he fumbled on one reception (Miami recovered). 3. Antonio Brown PIT 10 13 144 14.4 3 50 TEN Only one of Brown's catches did not pick up a first down: a 7-yard gain on first-and-10. He had a 41-yard touchdown and a 23 yard gain. Like Stills, he would have ranked even higher, but fumbled on one reception (Pittsburgh recovered). 4. Rishard Matthews TEN 5 6 113 22.6 1 50 PIT Matthews had one failed reception, a 4-yard gain on second-and-14. Each of his other catches went for first downs, the longest a 75-yard touchdown. 5. Davante Adams GB 8 10 126 15.8 0 48 BAL Adams had two failed receptions: a 3-yard gain on second-and-9 and a 6-yard gain on third-and-7. His other catches each gained at least 11 yards and a first down, the longest a 33-yarder.