When Barack Obama came to office, it was in the middle of horrible financial turbulence, and it was his plan to continue on the bailout path started by his predecessor George W. Bush.

So he picked an uncontroversial character who knew Wall Street and the bailouts inside and out: Tim Geithner.

But less than a year later, with the crisis fading from memory, Geithner's fog-of-war decisions have turned him into a lame-duck piñata. Sometime before the next mid-term election, Geithner will be out, and Barack Obama will have to pick a replacement.

Qualified replacements must know international finance, be prepared to sell lots of bonds to the Chinese, and be completely untainted by Wall Street and the bailout.

In fact, there's a good chance, Obama will select someone of the pre-Hank Paulson variety. Remember, Treasury secretaries didn't always come from Wall Street. Bush had both a rail and an aluminum exec in the slot prior to the former Goldman Sachs CEO. Such a move, from someone in real industry, rather than the money industry, will go down very easily.