Whatever they say, the Liberal Democrats must prepare to be next election kingmakers

Whatever they say, the Liberal Democrats must prepare to be next election kingmakers

The Lib Dems have been polling alongside the Conservatives and Labour

Today Sky News hosted a head-to-head debate for the "other leadership contest", between the two candidates hoping to lead the Liberal Democrats.

Jo Swinson and Sir Ed Davey may not have the box office billing of the Johnson-Hunt battle for Number 10, but this matters because the Lib Dems are - against all expectations - actually vying with the Conservatives and Labour in the polls.

One former adviser said their poll ratings "are so high we're all getting nosebleeds", and they want a leader who will keep them at that altitude, in the game of what increasingly looks like four-party politics.

Image: The Lib Dems only have 12 MPs

Lib Dem activists, who have spent the past four years licking the wounds of coalition, hope the right leader can finally help them mobilise the 48% of Remain voters, who have eluded them since the referendum.

So how do the two shape up?


On policy there is little difference. Both contenders say this is a good-humoured contest among friends and that ideologically this is not a battle for the soul of the party. Anyhow, Lib Dem members, not the leader, set the policies.

The key differences here are about style and strategy.

Jo Swinson, at 39, a business minister in the coalition government, has relative youth, enthusiasm and a record as a strong media performer, which she is pushing as a trump card.

Small parties need to get noticed and as one long-serving Lib Dem told me, even in the halcyon days when they had 63 MPs, it could still often be a struggle to get on television.

Image: Jo Swinson is keen to work cross-party

Ms Swinson is also keen to work cross-party, having been a regular spokesperson for the People's Vote campaign and active in the behind-the-scenes work around the defection of Chuka Umunna and the other Change UK MPs who may yet join the fold.

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Tom Brake, a Lib Dem MP who supports her, said: "She's been proactive in cross-party campaigning and I'm backing her because in this parliament and future parliaments, that's how we are going to get things done."

Analysis by party pollster Mark Pack puts her as the favourite with the party's 107,000 members.

Sir Ed Davey, a former energy secretary in the coalition, has the heft of having served in cabinet and as a former energy secretary is campaigning on climate change. His supporters say he is strong on detail and could take a Tory leader to task.

His approach to working with other parties is seen as more tribal. But of the two, he is the more aggressive defender of his party's record in coalition.

Image: Ed Davey was a cabinet minister during the last coalition government

While Ms Swinson has publicly recanted that the Lib Dems went too far in allowing welfare cuts and the "hostile environment" for migrants, Sir Ed has not - even though some Lib Dems have urged him to - expressed regret about any aspect of the coalition's record.

The immediate aim for the party's next leader is to build support among Tory and Labour MPs for a second referendum; and prepare for the possibility for a snap election.

The party's resurgence in the recent local and European elections, gaining 700 councillors and forming the second largest bloc of MEPs, has been impressive.

Jo Swinson raised the stakes this weekend by batting off questions about whether the party would be a kingmaker, saying they may end up winning a general election with a recent high water mark of 30% in a YouGov poll.

It's a heady thought for Lib Dems who have endured a hard slog over the past few years.

But the fact remains that they have only 12 MPs and a lot of ground to recover. If the country is headed for an election, they will face difficult questions about alliances.

Image: Chuka Umunna defected to the party from Change UK

What was clear from the answers this morning is that neither of the hopefuls are remotely minded to prop up a Jeremy Corbyn government, even though the Labour leader has now halfheartedly committed to a public vote.

When asked, Ms Swinson said: "Absolutely not, Jeremy Corbyn is a Brexiteer and a danger to our country". Ed Davey replied: "I simply wouldn't trust a change in his public position on Brexit. He's moving the party to the far left and that's a danger for our economy."

The Lib Dems privately admit that its narrow party interest - in terms of winning seats - is for Labour to keep its current fudge on Brexit and allow the Lib Dems to hoover up Labour votes and possibly a few more seats.

How Labour's position shifts is therefore key for the Lib Dems.

Image: Jeremy Corbyn faces pressure from some to take a stronger stance on another referendum

The pressure is pilling on Mr Corbyn to change position by not only backing a second referendum on any deal, but also campaign to remain in the EU.

Change could be foisted on him at the party conference or a new leader could take the party in a more explicitly pro-EU direction.

One Lib Dem veteran of the coalition period said: "Ruling out a future coalition is a no-brainer; the scars run very deep. But ruling out a looser arrangement, like confidence and supply is madness. If there's another hung parliament, it won't hold."

I understand senior Lib Dems are discussing two red lines for a future arrangement with another party - support for a second referendum, and a big prize - a change in the voting system to bring an end to first-past the-post.

A former adviser said: "We've gone in the last couple of months from how in God's name do we survive, to what can we do? And who do we work with to make it happen."