Jolimont. Friday. Around 6:45pm. If you’re there, chances are you’ll find yourself drawn in by the inescapable aura of hope and expectation that characterises finals football in Melbourne.

More likely, however, is that you will be a part of it. Donning either a Richmond scarf or a Geelong guernsey, you’ll be balancing a meat pie and a hot jam doughnut in your hands, conveniently using the ‘football experience’ as an excuse for your stress eating.

Why?

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Because after the pre-finals bye and two weeks of jeering the Melbourne supporters – who have been bearable for the first time since March – in your office, in a little over an hour your team will be playing in a match that means a lot more than a berth in a preliminary final.

For two teams whose records in September over the last five years have been far from polished, the loser will feel the ramifications more acutely than just having to line up again the following week.

Since their 2011 premiership in Chris Scott’s first season as coach, Geelong has won a grand total of two finals. That sounds respectable, even enviable for many teams in the competition. However, they have lost seven September clashes in this period.

Bundled out in straight sets in 2014 and losing two out of three finals played in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Geelong’s recent finals record is sub-par for a team that has finished in the top two in eight of the past eleven seasons.

Putting on a hypothetical cap and assuming Geelong lose, their most likely opponent in week two of the finals would be a rampaging Sydney, assuming the favourites get up against the Bombers. Not only a serious contender to replicate the Bulldogs’ efforts of winning the premiership from outside the top four, the Swans are also a side that has comfortably beaten Geelong in their last three encounters. Therefore if Geelong lose on Friday, another straight-sets exit looms.



For sentimental value, too, this season sees the end of an era, with Tom Lonergan and Andrew Mackie both set to retire at the conclusion of the Cats’ September campaign. It will leave only Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan, Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor from the 2011 premiership team. The Cats will be looking to prolong the career of two champions for as long as possible.

Moving to their opponents, Richmond enter the first week of the finals with a small win on the board. The fact that this match is rightly being played at the MCG, despite being a Geelong home game, means a passionate and bloodthirsty Tiger Army will be able to pack into the home of football.

In terms of consequence, September stalwart Chris Judd wrote of the scars of recent finals for Richmond, who have not won a final since 2001. Losses in 2013, 2014 and 2015 will inevitably weigh heavily on the minds of the Tigers, especially as they enter their 2017 campaign with a double chance.

What’s more, Richmond enter this finals campaign with All Australian captain Alex Rance headlining their defensive structure and have all-but-secured Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin bursting out of the midfield. There are no excuses this time around.

Let’s turn again to the hypothetical Sydney factor should Richmond lose. The Tigers have a better record against the Swans than Geelong do, having won three of the last five – their most recent encounter was a narrow win to Sydney in Round 13.

Regardless, Sydney’s might and September prowess would see them enter a semi-final as favourites, and a straight-sets exit would all but confirm Judd’s suspicions of Richmond’s finals wobbles.