New Delhi: While Lok Sabha elections may be a year away, the Upper House of Parliament will see an electoral battle this Friday. The elections and counting of votes for 58 Rajya Sabha seats, which fall vacant in April, will take place on Friday. The BJP has 15 chief ministers and is a part of the ruling coalition in 21 states. The party plans to make full use of its overwhelming numbers in the Rajya Sabha polls, in which MLAs form the electorate.

In August last year, the BJP overtook the Congress to become the single-largest party in the Upper House. 58 Rajya Sabha seats, in addition to one seat in Kerala which fell vacant last year, will go to polls this week. News18 crunched the state-wise numbers and this what the Rajya Sabha will look like after Friday.

THE FORMULA

The value of each MLA’s vote is 100. The total number of votes required for a candidate to get elected to the Rajya Sabha is [(Number of MLAs X 100) / (Vacancies + 1)] + 1

Take UP, for instance. The state has 403 MLAs and a total of 10 seats will fall vacant in 2018. So the number of votes needed is [(403 X 100) / (10+1)] + 1 = 3,664 votes

In Goa, the assembly has 40 members and its one Rajya Sabha seat will be vacant this year. So the formula for Goa would be [(40 X 100) / (1+1)] + 1 = 2,001 votes

Uttar Pradesh (10 vacancies): 10 seats from the state will be vacant in 2018 and the BJP are in a comfortable position. A candidate from UP will require the support of 37 MLAs. With 311 MLAs in 403-member assembly, BJP is assured of at least eight seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP) with its 47 MLAs will be able to send a single member to the Upper House. However, if the factionalism within the SP refuses to die down till next year, the SP faces the risk of losing that position. It may then require the help of its alliance partner Congress (7 MLAs). The Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (19 MLAs) will not be in a position to elect even a single MLA, even if they were to join forces. In that eventuality, the BJP will walk away with nine of the 10 vacant seats. However, if the Congress, BSP and both factions of the SP were to come together, they will be able to elect one more combined member to the Rajya Sabha, reducing the BJP to eight MPs. The BJP’s alliance partner, the SBSP, has four seats in the assembly and after being miffed with the ruling party, has stayed non-committal about who it will support.

Bihar (6 vacancies): Six of Bihar’s 16 seats will go to polls this Friday. The JD(U) has 71 MLAs, the BJP has 53 and the single largest party is the RJD with 80. The total votes required to send a candidate to the Rajya Sabha is 3,472 or support from at least 35 MLAs. The JD(U) and RJD are in a position to elect two members each on their own respective strengths. The BJP can elect just one MP on its own. The Congress (27 MLAs) will be able to elect an MP with the surplus vote of its alliance partner RJD. The battle in Bihar is a balanced one and the NDA, UPA would each win three of the six seats.

Maharashtra (6 vacancies): The number of votes required for a candidate to represent Maharashtra in the RS is 4,115 or the support of at least 42 MLAs. Individually, the BJP can elect two MPs and the Shiv Sena can elect one. If the alliance votes together, they can strategically use each other’s surplus votes to elect a fourth member from the NDA. If the Shiv Sena chooses to break ranks within the alliance, this would open up one seat for a contest. The Congress has just enough numbers (42) to elect one MP while the NCP (41) is one short. Congress will not have any surplus votes left to help the NCP, which may have to depend on smaller parties or independents.

West Bengal (5 vacancies): To be elected to the Rajya Sabha from West Bengal, a candidate will require the support of 50 MLAs. The Trinamool Congress has a brute majority in the house and with its 213 MLAs, it will be able to send at least four MPs to the Upper House. The second largest party in the house, the Congress, is far behind the TMC with 42 MLAs. The Congress has 42 MLAs, just short of the required number to elect an MP. It will require the help of either TMC’s balance 13 votes or the CPM’s 26 MLAs.

Madhya Pradesh (5 vacancies): Five of MP’s Rajya Sabha seats will go to polls on Friday. To be elected, a candidate needs support from 39 MLAs. The BJP has nine more votes than the required number to win four out of five seats. The Congress, which has 58 MLAs, can easily drum up the numbers for the fifth seat.

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