Avoiding Draft Day Traps in Your Mock Draft

Managing the mock draft database, I see a lot of mock draft picks. The good and the bad.

While the obvious joy in making a mock draft is finding that perfect player-team pairing that nobody else saw coming, and big bonus points if you knew it would happen in a draft day trade. But you know what else is really good?

Knowing what won’t happen.

That feeling you get when you look at a mock draft, and you do your best Come On, Man! Player X mocked to Team X again? And you start listing off all the reasons that pick won’t happen in your head. That’s pretty fun too. Avoiding those draft day traps that will slam 50% of the mocks in your contests.

I’m here to point to those traps and say, “Watch out, buddy. Trap there.” Consider it a public service to all you mock drafters out there who are about to chase that fool’s gold. Let me steer you toward some draft day gems instead.

Speaking of a draft day gem:

Get the app, challenge your friends to a mock draft contest, and make draft day so much better. And whatever you do… do not mock these guys to these teams. It’ll break your heart.

The 2019 NFL Mock Draft Picks Everyone’s Getting Wrong

6. Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

try instead: Ed Oliver, DT Houston

I laid it out a while ago in my mini Twitter screed, but I’ll lay it out again here. The Giants don’t draft like the draft analyst community wants them to. They’ve shown that positional importance/value doesn’t mean as much to them as it does to the other NFL teams.

Last year they passed on taking a QB in a class that was considered the strongest in many years, to take a RB (the position considered most easily replaceable, and among the deepest in last year’s class) with incredibly special traits. In addition, Eli had a better year passing this year than he did the previous year, by any metric. If they didn’t reach for a QB when the class was loaded and Eli was at his lowest, they sure won’t do it in a weak QB class, after a mini-rebound from their QB, when there are such talented players at other positions of need.

Ed Oliver is an incredibly gifted DT, with the potential to be a game-changer. Gettleman has shown a propensity for favoring the D-line in the past. And the Giants are badly in need of talent up front. What this all adds up to is the Giants passing on Haskins, if he even makes it to them at pick 6, and instead grabbing either Quinnen Williams if he happens to fall (unlikely) or Ed Oliver.

15. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Stanford

try instead: Byron Murphy, CB Washington

The Redskins already have JJAW on their team- his name is Josh Doctson. Doctson made his money by dominating at the catch point and being a jump ball artist who won 50/50 balls. Problem is, the reason he had to win those jump balls in the first place is because he never got any separation.

JJAW has the same strength and the same weakness. He plays like a basketball player would play (both his parents were pro basketball players in Europe) by just boxing out defenders and high-pointing the ball. I guess there is a place for those types of red zone targets (but not much else) in the NFL, but they rarely work out well if they can’t get open in the other 80% of the football field.

I understand that WAS needs WRs, but hopefully they’ve learned their lesson from Doctson and his 81 career catches that just hoping you can throw it up, and that your WR will jump up high to catch it, isn’t a recipe for success in today’s NFL.

On defense, the Redskins play a good amount of zone coverage, and Murphy is the ideal zone corner in this year’s class. Josh Norman’s play has slipped a bit (and they will save $8.5m if they part ways with the 31 year old this offseason) and while Stroman played okay for an injured Dunbar, both players would be massively upgraded by the addition of Murphy. I don’t think he will be available when the Redskins pick (I infamously put him pretty high in my latest mock) but he is lasting until the middle/end of the round in many other mocks.

Don’t expect him to last past Washington, if he makes it that far.

18. Greg Little, OT Ole Miss

try instead: Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma

Obviously you can tell by my alternative pick that I don’t think that targeting the O-line is the wrong move here. But it’s more the specific player, and his specific fit on this O-line (and the specific weakness of the current O-line) that I have a problem with. Let’s start with the Vikings.

Their O-line was really bad this year, but it really wasn’t the OTs that were the problem. It was the interior. O’Neill was pretty bad, but he is a rookie, and they can expect him to grow in year 2. Reiff was fine on the other side. But both Guards and the Center were really bad. They need to focus on the inside.

Greg Little and Cody Ford are both listed as OTs, and both played Tackle last season, but their pro projections are very different. Little is very athletic, and while his technique leaves something to be desired, he has the potential to be a great OT at the next level if he puts it all together. He isn’t a mauler, and his greatest asset is his potential to play against speed rushers on the edge.

Ford, on the other hand, is a mauler. He is strong and vicious, and while he has great feet that could enable him to play on the edge, he is being seen as a potential Pro Bowler at Guard.

If the Vikings are going to focus on O-line in the first round, they are most likely not going to draft another Brian O’Neill- another athletic OT who is a project on the outside, and would not do well with a move inside. They would be much more likely to focus on a player who can be a rock at Guard, but has the positional flexibility to compete at Tackle as well.

19. A.J. Brown, WR Ole Miss

try instead: Jachai Polite, DE Florida

Now I don’t want everyone to think I don’t see WR as a Titans team need here. I see it as a very real need, possibly their biggest one. But Brown is possibly the worst fit for what they need, which is someone to push those Safeties out of the box- to stretch the field vertically and make those long outside catches. There are a lot of great receivers that excel as a vertical threat, and A.J. Brown just isn’t one of them.

If I’m a Titans fan, I’m hoping for either Hakeem Butler or David Sills V in rounds 2-4. But in the first round, I am going to try and take advantage of all this pass rush talent, and find a partner to pair with Harold Landry.

Much like Byron Murphy not lasting, I don’t think Polite will fall to the Titans pick. But I also didn’t think Landry would last to the second round. And in a lot of the mocks I am seeing, Polite is available for the Titans pick. I actually think they can have a similar impact, though their games are slightly different. Landry had a great get off, but it was his flexibility around the edge that won him a rep. Polite has an even better burst I think, then uses that speed to power through and past linemen. He’s slippery enough that he kind of sloughs them off on his way to destroying the QB.

So Titans mock drafters… forget A.J. Brown. He should be limited to the slot, and has shown very little ability to get deep. He would actually draw Safeties even closer to the box, which is what the Titans are trying to avoid. Instead, give them some pass rush help in the first, with the thought that they can grab Butler or Sills V in the later rounds.

21. Deionte Thompson, S Alabama

try instead: T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa

I know, I know, I am going against my own previous advice here, when I said the Hawks will definitely be going D-line in the first. I still believe that will be the case if the right player falls to them. But with their having an unexpectedly good season and therefore drafting much later in the round, I’m afraid a really special prospect won’t be there for them.

T.J. Hockenson is also a very very special prospect, and he could be there.

You know what Seattle wants out of its TEs? Blockers. And if you can also be dynamic as a receiver, excellent. It’s why they drafted Vannett and Dissly. It’s why they brought in Dickson. It’s why when they traded for Graham, they tried to teach him to block.

Hockenson is a great receiver, clearly, but he is also a passionate blocker.

Dissly will be coming off a devastating injury next season, Dickson will be 32, and Vennett has shown nothing to convince me he has a future with this team.

But why not Deionte? Quite frankly, I don’t think he has any of the traits that made Earl Thomas possibly the greatest FS to ever play the game. His speed is seriously lacking, he doesn’t seem too interested in tackling, and he doesn’t seem to me to play with any kind of fire. The more I saw, the less I liked. But even ignoring all that… Carroll and Schneider just don’t draft DBs early.

Many non-Seahawk fans saw the LOB and just assumed the Hawks prioritized the position in the draft. They don’t. Earl went in the first, but that’s because he’s the definition of a “generational talent” and they got him. But aside from Earl, who was drafted way back in 2010, the earliest they have drafted any DB (CB or Safety) was in the 3rd round in 2017, when they started to restock their defensive backfield with Griffin, Hill, and Thompson.

They don’t draft them early. They draft them in the middle rounds, then coach them up. Unless a special talent is available. Deionte is not a special talent.

T.J. Hockenson is.

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