Dan Nowicki

The Republic | azcentral.com

Arizona is a too-close-to-call presidential battleground between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, according to a new statewide Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll.

The live telephone survey found Clinton, the former secretary of State, leading Trump, the celebrity billionaire, 35.1 percent to 33.5 percent among likely voters in the traditional red state, well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Third-party candidates captured another 8 percent or so: Libertarian Gary Johnson was supported by 6.9 percent; Green Party nominee Jill Stein by 1.5 percent.

Another 22.9 percent haven't decided yet.

Because people were asked concretely about what they plan to do, the poll got to the heart of how many Arizonans are undecided about the presidential race, said Eric Hedberg, senior research fellow at the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. “I think that’s the big finding: There’s still the 20 percent out there who haven’t made up their minds.”

Even when undecided likely voters were asked who they were leaning toward supporting, the results remained similarly tight, with Clinton at 39.9 percent and Trump at 36.8 percent.

The Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll is the first major independent statewide political poll in Arizona this election cycle. Unlike many polls conducted in Arizona, it used advanced survey methodology to weigh the responses for a more accurate picture of what voters are likely to do.

The close race is a departure for Arizona, which has not been a particularly competitive state over the past 70 years or so. The last Democrat to carry Arizona was President Bill Clinton in his 1996 re-election race. Before that, it was President Harry Truman in 1948.

"Looking at past voting results, you have to say that the Republican nominee has the advantage in Arizona," said Nathan Gonzales, a political analyst who edits and publishes the nonpartisan Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report in Washington, D.C. "But Donald Trump is adding a level of volatility to this election cycle that we just haven't seen before. This poll shows that there is a large number of undecided voters, including undecided Republicans, who aren't sure what they are going to do in November."

The Clinton campaign declined to comment directly on the new poll, but indicated it sees an opportunity in Arizona.

Trump's anti-illegal-immigration posture, which has included vows to deport millions, has alienated many Hispanics.

According to the new poll, Trump is viewed very unfavorably by 57.7 percent of Hispanic voters and unfavorably by another 19.4 percent, meaning a total of 77.1 percent hold a negative opinion about him.

The margin of error for the subsample of 78 Hispanic voters was plus or minus 10.2 percentage points.

Overall, Clinton is leading among Hispanic voters with 56.2 percent, followed by Trump at 15.3 percent, Johnson at 9.8 percent and Stein at 1.1. percent with 17.5 percent undecided. The margin of error for that question is plus or minus 10.8 percentage points.

"There is no doubt that Donald Trump's offensive rhetoric and harmful policies have made Arizona more competitive than before," said Marlon Marshall, Clinton's director of state campaigns and political engagement.

But Brian Seitchik, Trump's Arizona state director, countered Wednesday that voters are tired of "the same old Washington corruption and back room deals" and are ready to try someone new.

"We are campaigning hard in Arizona, and Hillary loses voters each day as more and more details emerge of her illegal pay-to-play scandal at the State Department where she traded official access for donations to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments," Seitchik said.

Johnson, a former New Mexico governor and potential election spoiler, has been at about 8.1 percent nationally, according to a rolling average of polls between Aug. 25 and Sunday tracked by the RealClearPolitics website. Stein is at 3 percent nationally.

Lynn Driscoll, 52, is a registered Republican from Tucson who remains undecided about the presidential race.

"This has been a pretty unusual race," said Driscoll, a semi-retired accountant. "Usually, I've pretty much made up my mind by this point, and I haven't."

Describing herself as fiscally more conservative and socially more progressive, Driscoll said she is "actually looking at Gary Johnson this time around."

The poll was conducted Aug. 17-31. The sample size was 704 likely voters.

The poll concluded the same day Trump delivered a hard-line immigration-policy speech at the Phoenix Convention Center and before Clinton's campaign targeted Arizona with an ad buy. It also was done before Trump reignited his feud with U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., on Sunday by attacking the state's junior senator on Twitter.

Flake has warned that Trump risks losing Arizona unless he changes the tone and tenor of his campaign and adopts more serious policy proposals on issues such as immigration.

POLL RESULTS: Presidential race | Arizona Senate race | Voter views of Ducey | Voter views of Arpaio | Marijuana legalization | $12 minimum wage | Views of immigration, border wall | Complete results and methodology

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