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Whitecap is in the middle of setting its budget for 2020 and the attack on Abqaiq is likely to affect oil price assumptions for next year. Fagerheim said Whitecap is trying to “manage to the downside but expose ourselves to the upside.”

Some analysts believe the oil price response to the attack on Saudi Arabia actually understates the magnitude of the event.

To date, I’m surprised the price response is as muted as it is RS Energy Group chief economist Judith Dwarkin

“To date, I’m surprised the price response is as muted as it is,” RS Energy Group chief economist Judith Dwarkin said, noting that U.S. President Donald Trump issued a statement indicating the country would use its Strategic Petroleum Reserves.

Dwarkin said that in recent months there have been smaller-scale production disruptions following violence in Libya and elsewhere but oil markets have “hardly quivered,” but the attack on Saudi Arabia is a much higher-magnitude event.

“This seems to suggest the Saudi’s can’t protect themselves against this kind of attack,” she said, which also demonstrates “heightened possibility there could be more in the near future.”

As U.S. and Saudi officials accuse Iran of perpetrating the attack, most economists and political analysts believe there could be additional attacks or escalation in the coming months.

“I don’t think we’re anywhere near done with this event,” said Scotiabank commodities economist Rory Johnston, adding the market is now grappling with the question: “Where do we go on the energy security side?”

Johnston said that most of the perceived risk in the oil market in recent years has been focused on the demand for oil – will oil prices fall as consumers use less gasoline and diesel? The attack on Saudi Arabia re-introduces the previously overlooked risks on the supply side – what happens to oil prices if there’s a major disruption?