Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Keston Hiura, 2B

Background: Despite being a bit overlooked coming out of Valencia High School, Hiura, who was not drafted or as heavily recruited when compared to other top prospects, has earned a litany of awards and recognitions. The 5-foot-11, 190-pound infielder/outfielder started making waves as soon as he stepped on campus. In 56 games for Head Coach Mike Gillespie, the then-true freshman slugged an impressive .330/.392/.520 while leading the squad in doubles (18), triples (2), and RBI (52). He also finished second with seven homeruns. Louisville Slugger and the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association named him to the First Team Freshman All-America. He was voted Big West Freshman Player of the Year and First Team All-Big West. Hiura continued that torrid approach at the plate for the Wenatchee AppleSox in the West Coast League during that summer as well, hitting .356/.439/.623 with another 33 extra-base hits (21 doubles, six triples, and six homeruns). Hiura, more or less, maintained status quo during his sophomore campaign as well: he batted .358/.436/.539 with 12 doubles, two triples, seven homeruns, and a career high six stolen bases. That production earned him a spot on Team USA that summer as well, where he hit .289/.356/.553.

Last season, to put it frankly, Hiura posted ridiculous, video game-esque offensive numbers: in 261 plate appearances, the 5-foot-11, 190-pound infielder battered the competition to the tune of .442/.567/.693 with career highs in doubles (24), homeruns (eight), and stolen bases (nine). On an interesting side not of sorts: Hiura was plunked 10 times last season, bringing his career total to 28.Milwaukee grabbed the toolsy prospect in the first round, ninth overall, last June and sent him to the Arizona Summer League – which lasted all of 15 games – before bumping him up to Low Class A. Hiura hit an aggregate .371/.422/.611 with 14 doubles, seven triples, and four homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 77%.

Projection: Well, that’s one helluva start to a career, isn’t it? Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the UC Irvine product before the draft last season:

Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2016, here’s a list of Division I prospects that have batted at least .400/.550/.650 in a season (minimum 250 plate appearances): Justin Miller (SE Louisiana).

If the season ended today, Hiura would be the second name on that list – with the added asterisk that the UC Irvine slugger has faced off against far superior competition. Offensively, there’s really nothing to not like about Hiura: he succeeded at every stop of his collegiate career; he hits for average; runs a little bit; has solid-average power; and his plate discipline has grown by leaps and bounds during his junior season. After posting a combined 85-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his first two seasons, he’s currently sporting an impressive 38-to-50 mark through his first 54 games in 2017. Defensively, well, that’s another story. He simply doesn’t have a set position. Hiura has seen some action at second base and in center field in the past, but he’s spent the majority of the time at DH this season. The bat, though, will likely play at any position in the outfield and could be an above-average force at second or third bases. Finally, consider the following comparison:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG ISO SB CS BB% K% Keston Hiura 758 0.367 0.461 0.573 0.206 16 12 12.14% 16.23% Ian Happ 718 0.338 0.463 0.552 0.214 56 18 17.83% 16.16%

Happ, the ninth overall pick out of the University of Cincinnati in 2015, put together a similar career triple-slash line, though he walked more frequently and showcased better speed. But if Hiura becomes 90% of Happ, any team that drafts the California native should be pleased.

Expect Hiura to go somewhere between picks 12 and 25 with a peak as a .300/.340/.410-type hitter.”

Coincidentally enough, as luck would have it, Happ and Hiura were both chosen with the ninth overall pick. Huzzah! He’s looking like a potential polished, fast-moving bat who could remind some of Rickie Weeks’ peak.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP

Background: Despite being a non-traditional baseball school, St. Mary’s College of California has churned out more than a few interesting prospects in recent seasons. Kyle Barraclough was a seventh round selection in 2012 by the St. Louis Cardinals. Martin Agosta was a second round pick of the San Francisco Giants the same year as well. And we can’t forget about 2012 supplemental first round pick Patrick Wisdom, also by the Cardinals, and, of course, former veteran big leaguer Mark Teahen, who appeared in 831 total big league games. But it’s Burnes, a 2016 fourth round pick, who could become the most successful alumni from the school since Von Hayes. Standing a well-built 6-foot-3, and 205 pounds, the bespectacled right-hander has already spent significant time in the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, and passed with flying colors. Burnes opened last year up on a tear in the Carolina League, posting an absurdly dominant 1.05 ERA across 10 starts. Milwaukee’s player development czars bumped the big righty up to the Southern League in early June. And Burnes, the 111th overall pick, continued to dominate for another 16 starts. When the dust settled, he tossed 145.2 total innings, posting a 140-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to tallying an aggregate 1.67 ERA.

Projection: Raise your hand if you saw Burnes’ dominant season on the horizon. Because, frankly, I sure as hell didn’t. Burnes finished the year with the third lowest ERA among all minor league arms with 100 or more innings last season, trailing only Jon Duplantier and Merandy Gonzalez. And his stellar 2.40 FIP was good for the fifth lowest mark. So how’s his production last season in Class AA stack up against his peers, historically speaking? Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 20156, here’s a list of 22-year-olds to post at least a 24% strikeout and a walk rate below 6% in the Southern League (min. 75 IP): Kris Medlen.

A pre-injury riddled Medlen looks like a reasonable comp: a solid mid-rotation arm with some slight potential to peak as a solid #2. Burnes offers a solid ability to miss bats, generates a bunch of action on the ground, and showed impeccable control/command last season. Throw in a big frame and a history free from injury, and the future looks awfully bright for young right-hander.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

3. Freddy Peralta, RHP

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Among all minor league arms with at least 100 innings pitched last season, Peralta’s strikeout percentage, 33.4%, was the second best total, trailing only A’s uber-prospect A.J. Puk. Peralta, who was 21 last season, was a year younger than Puk. Fun Fact Part II: The last time a pitcher 21-years-old or younger topped the 33% strikeout percentage in a season was St. Louis’ Alex Reyes, who is still widely regarded as one of the top arms with rookie eligibility remaining. Needless to say, but I will any way, when it comes to generating swings-and-misses, Peralta was as dominant as we’ve seen over the past several years. The 5-foot-11, 175-pound right-hander split time between Carolina and Biloxi, throwing a career best 120 innings with a whopping 169 strikeouts and 62 free passes.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about the Dominican-born right-hander in last year’s Handbook:

“Peralta’s work in the Florida State League skewed his overall production rather greatly. But it’s important to remember that: (A) he had three straight years of sub-60-inning workloads and while 82 innings doesn’t seem like a large amount, it does represent a 44% increase; and (B) he had an inconsistent schedule at the end of the year. One thing to consider: among pitchers with at least 60 innings in either Low Class A league, Peralta finished with the fourth highest strikeout percentage (30.8%). He’s still a bit of a wild card due to his lack of experience, but he has the potential to turn a lot of heads in the next year or two.”

Yeah, I’d qualify that as a head-turning season. The lone pock mark on an otherwise dominant year was his spike in his walk rate last season, going from 4.0 BB/9 in 2016 to 4.7 BB/9. Consider the following:

Here’s a list of 21-year-old pitchers to post a 31% or better K% and a 10% or greater BB% in the Southern League (min. 40 IP): Jacob Faria.

Faria, by the way, turned in a strong, strong performance during his debut in the big leagues last season. But unlike Peralta, his control was significantly improved both before and after his stint as a 21-year-old in the Southern League. I like Peralta – a lot. He struck out eight or more hitters nine times last season. Of course, on the other hand, he walked three or more 11 times. He’s a high risk, high reward prospect. He could just as easily ascend into above-average #2 arm and just as quickly get pushed into a relief role. Go. Big. Or. Go. Home.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

4. Phil Bickford, RHP

Background: Well, that sucks. The former twice-drafted first round pick looked poised as a potential late-season call up to Milwaukee heading into 2017. Bickford, who was drafted with the 10th overall pick by the Blue Jays coming out of high school and heard his name called as the 18th selection two years later by the Giants, got popped – and was subsequently suspended – for a second positive test for a drug of abuse. Then he got sidelined – again. This time, though, as the result of injury. He was struck on the pitching hand by a line drive during an extended Spring Training game at Maryvale Baseball Park. The injury forced him under the knife after x-rays revealed fractured metacarpels in his ring and pinky fingers. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-hander did make it back to action in early August, throwing six games with the club’s Arizona Summer League affiliate. He tossed 17.0 innings, recording 16 strikeouts and 10 walks.

Projection: Getting popped for a drug of abuse is foolish. Getting popped twice is stupid. Baseball careers only extend for so long, for the lucky ones. Why inhibit your potential paycheck by smoking a doobie? All-in-all, it was a completely lost season for Bickford. Here’s what I wrote about him prior to the 2015 draft:

“A rare breed, Bickford offers up the perfect trifecta of youth, power, and control. And while his swing-and-miss ability this season puts him in some elite company – he’s averaging a smidge over 17 punch outs per nine innings – it’s important to add some proper context. Current Chicago Cubs farmhand – and former third round pick – Donn Roach, owner of a fringy upper 80s fastball, fanned 142 in 111.1 innings during his lone season at Southern Nevada. Roach also fanned 22 in just over 40 innings of work at Arizona during his freshman season. With that being said, Bickford is one of the better, more promising arms in the class – one that could potentially move quickly through the system despite his relative youth. [He’s a] solid #2/#3-type ceiling.”

I’ve been loudly touting his ability for years now. As long as he can get the hell out of his own way, which some can’t, Bickford has a lot of big league potential in his right arm. I expect him to have one helluva bounce back season in 2018. With respect to his work in Low Class A two years ago, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of 20-year-old pitcher that posted a strikeout percentage of at least 28% and a walk percentage below 7% in the Sally (min. 60 IP): Phil Bickford.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019

5. Brandon Woodruff, RHP

Background: Woodruff took me on a bit of an analytical roller coaster over the past couple years: I went from having him as a potential second or third round pick to – somehow – lasting until the 11th round; he floundered for his first two seasons in the low minors and then, somehow, figured it out in 2016 and blitzed through the rest of the minors before making eight solid starts in Milwaukee. Despite having his 2017 temporarily derailed by a hamstring injury, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound right-hander out of Mississippi State University made 16 starts with the Colorado Springs Sky Sox, posting a 70-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 75.1 innings of work. He finished with a 4.30 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, and a 3.46 DRA (Deserved Run Average). He also tossed another 43.0 innings with the Brew Crew as well, averaging 6.7 strikeout and 2.9 walks per nine innings with a 4.81 ERA.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Woodruff heading into the 2014 draft:

“Very similar to that of former Oklahoma State right-hander Jason Hursh, who was nabbed by the Braves in the first round last season despite missing significant time due to Tommy John surgery. Woodruff is another lively armed pitcher that could find his name being called somewhere between rounds 2 and 3. He’s going to have to be brought up to speed slowly, but there’s some big league rotation potential here. The control will eventually bounce back after this season; granted, it couldn’t get much worse. And in limited time he’s shown a pretty good ability to miss bats. Complete wild card, though. If everything breaks right, he – maybe – could develop into a #3/#4-type arm. But if his control/command continues to flounder in the below-average range than he’s likely looking at an eighth inning role. Again, health is going to be a concern moving forward.”

Well, everything has broken the right way for Woodruff. And he’s ready to step in and chew some serious innings for Milwaukee as a mid-rotation caliber arm for the next, oh, eight years. Consider the following:

Heaney, Humber, Oberholtzer, and Eickhoff have all had at least one big league season in which they accrued 1.7 fWAR.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

6. Taylor Williams, RHP

Background: It’s been a long, often times arduous couple of years for the former Kent State ace. For those counting at home, it’s been 954 days to be exact. Williams, a 2013 fourth round pick out of KSU, went nearly three full years in between minor league appearances thanks to a troublesome elbow injury that eventually forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery. But Williams, who last appeared in High Class A in 2014, quickly made up for lost time. He jumped straight up to Class AA, the minors’ toughest challenge, to start 2017. And he finished it with a five-game cameo in Milwaukee. When it was all said and done the 5-foot-11, 195-pound right-hander tossed 46.2 innings with the Biloxi Shuckers, fanning a remarkable 57 against 21 walks. He finished his minor league campaign with a 3.09 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.95 xFIP, and a 4.10 DRA (Deserved Run Average). As for his work in Milwaukee, Williams, simply, continued to impress: 4.2 IP, four strikeouts, two walks, and one earned run allowed.

Projection: The human spirit is a wonderful thing, isn’t it? Williams undergoes a major arm surgery – granted, one that’s been perfected over decades of practice – and subsequently goes over 900 days between appearances. Within months of returning from the injury, he breezes through the Southern League and spends several days in Milwaukee. Here’s what I wrote about him heading into the 2013 draft:

“The data’s exceptionally limited – good, but limited. And there are not too many DI hurlers that can match his ability to miss bats and pound the zone. But the problem will come down to size, where teams shy away from sub-6-foot right-handers, particularly starters. He’s probably headed for the third round or so, but he’s going to be a steal – if the drafting team keeps him in the rotation.”

Well, he lasted a round longer than I expected, but he certainly looks the part of a draft steal. Milwaukee did well in limiting his workload last season, and it looks like they’ll give him a shot to develop into a starter; his first 15 appearances last season were starts, though he was limited to fewer than four innings in each of his appearances. He has some mid-rotation caliber potential. But if he’s relegated to a relief role, he’s going to be a dominant late-inning arm.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

7. Tristen Lutz, CF

Background: James W. Martin High School has churned out some impressive talent throughout the years: Nate Karns, 1998 AL Rookie of Year Award winner Ben Grieve, Matt Blank, and, of course, Todd Van Poppel, arguably one of the most hyped pitching prospects in history. Milwaukee plucked the 6-foot-3, 210-pound outfielder in the first round last June, 34th overall, and signed him a deal worth about $350,000 above the recommended slot bonus. Lutz promptly responded with an impressive debut in both stateside rookie leagues: in 40 games, he slugged .311/.398/.559 with five doubles, four triples, and nine homeruns. He also swiped three bags in seven total attempts. Lutz’s overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 37%.

Projection: Fairly impressive debut for the incoming prep player. Lutz showed a decent eye at the plate, solid contact skills, and plenty of power potential. Per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach for Lutz. But things should be very interesting for Lutz and the Brewers next season. One final thought: don’t be surprised to see him shift into a full time corner outfielder spot in the very near future.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

8. Marcos Diplan, RHP

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Diplan, along with 19-year-olds Triston McKenzie and Roniel Raudes, were the only three qualified pitchers under the age of 21 in the Carolina League last season. Fun Fact Part II: Diplan finished the year with the eighth best strikeout percentage, 21.3%, in the league last season. The rail thin right-hander made a career high 22 starts with the Carolina Mudcats last season, along with four relief appearances, throwing 125.2 innings of work. He recorded 119 strikeouts against a hefty 71 free passes. He finished the year with an unsightly 5.23 ERA, a 4.48 FIP, a 4.27 xFIP, and a 5.76 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his career, Diplan is averaging 9.1 strikeouts and 4.5 walks per nine innings with a 3.64 ERA.

Projection: The 6-foot, 160-pound right-hander out of Santiago, Dominican Republic, has as much potential as any arm in the Milwaukee system. But it’s going to come down to his ability – or inability – to consistently find the strike zone. Consider the following:

Only one of them – Henry Owens, who recently his the waiver wire – walked more than 10% of the hitters they face – a la Diplan. There’s some interesting arms sprinkled in the group – Duffy, Rondon, and Delgado – but, surprisingly, missing that amount of bats in the Carolina League at a young age isn’t a lock for stardom. Diplan is another high risk, high reward arm. He’s also another candidate to move into a relief role if things don’t work out.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

9. Troy Stokes Jr., LF

Background: Taken 75 picks after Milwaukee grabbed fellow prep prospect Jake Gatewood in the 2014 draft. Stokes, however, has become the type of prospect many envisioned Gatewood developing into. Standing a Mighty Mouse-esque 5-foot-8 and 182-pounds, Stokes maintained status quo as he moved up to the Carolina League and eventually the Southern League last season. The former Calvert Hall College High School alum batted an aggregate .251/.341/.447 with career bests in nearly every single offensive category, including: doubles (28), triples (5), homeruns (20), and stolen bases (30). The speedy little outfielder also posted another strong walk rate as well (10.9%). Stokes’ overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 24%, the second best total for his four-year career. Stokes is sporting a career .260/.357/.410 triple-slash line, belting out 70 doubles, 12 triples, and 29 homeruns to go along with 95 stolen bases in 330 total games.

Projection: Stokes is equipped with a fairly strong arsenal of tools: patience, speed, and power. And he’s consistently been a well above-average offensive performer at each level too. Defensively, he’s been average, maybe a touch below according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, there’s been one player to post a walk rate above 10%, a strikeout percentage between 16-21%, and an ISO between .190-.210: Marcus Semien, who owns a 96 wRC+ in 484 career big league games with a speed/power/patience package.

Semien comp seems pretty reasonable as a ceiling. Stokes looks like starter on a non-contending team. Or a strong, well above-average bench option. I like him. He has a Scrappy Doo vibe about him.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

10. Lucas Erceg, 3B

Background: One of the better sophomore showings in Division I baseball in 2015, Erceg slugged a robust .303/.357/.502 with 11 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns for the University of California. But the lefty-swinging third baseman ran into some academic issues which forced him to transfer to Menlo College, a NAIA school in Atherton, California. And, of course, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound slugger had a field day – or year – against the inferior pitching, battering the competition to the tune of .308/.351/.639 with 15 doubles and 20 homeruns in just 56 games. Milwaukee grabbed the California native in the second round two years and set him loose on the Pioneer and Midwest League. Like Godzilla mowing down sandcastles, Erceg posted an impeccable .327/.376/.518 with 17 doubles, four triples, and nine homeruns. The front office bumped Erceg up to the Carolina League for 2017. He responded by batting .256/.307/.417 with 33 doubles, one triple, and 15 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by 2%.

Projection: While the overall numbers seem rather blasé, especially for a polished collegiate hitter squaring off against High Class A, let’s take a closer look. Erceg got off to an atrocious start last season, hitting a putrid .204/.244/.335 through his first 41 games. But something seemed to click for the former second round selection near the end of May; he slugged .283/.337/.459 over his final 86 games in the Carolina League, posting an impressive 123 wRC+.

Given his success in college, specifically during his sophomore season, coupled with the aggressive promotion up to High Class A, I’m more inclined to buy into his production over the final 86 games. So let’s focus on that. Consider the following:

Player Age LGE PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Lucas Erceg 22 Carolina 362 7.50% 17.70% 0.176 123 Brent Morel 22 Carolina 526 7.20% 12.50% 0.173 118

Morel was a well below-average big league hitter, stringing together a career 60 wRC+ mark in 220 MLB games. It seems like a reasonable enough comparison. Erceg has above-average power, a questionable eye at the plate, and decent defense. Right now, he looks more like a reasonable bench option or a potential starter on a non-contending team.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.