DALLAS - Following the June 21 draft-time trade with the Atlanta Hawks that landed Luka Doncic in Dallas, there was one goal in mind: Playoff Basketball. The Mavericks, who traded their 2019 pick (top-five protected) to the Atlanta Hawks, and also signed DeAndre Jordan that summer had, in coach Rick Carlisle's own opinion, moved from "rebuilding'' to "building.'' From that point forward, in their own minds, it was "playoffs or bust.'' (Whatever "bust'' means.) That sentiment was nice, especially for the fans who had suffered through one of the worst stretches of Mavericks basketball in two decades. However, following a 123-120 Sunday night loss to Toronto that comes 49 games into their "rebuilt'' plan, Dallas is now in danger of that many would consider the worst-case scenario of both missing out on the playoffs and the 2019 lottery pick.

"Our defense has got to get more consistent from start to finish," Carlisle said after the game. "It is pretty clear. I mean, 70 in the first half is way too many and we talked about that at halftime. Some of it was turnovers and not getting back quickly enough in transition. Some of it was two or three offensive rebounding plays where we didn’t quite get the rebound and they grabbed it and threw it to a guy for a three. There are some things that are unlucky, but we have to have more force throughout the entire game. It’s as simple as that. I loved the way we charged back in the third. The starters got us off to a great start and I think we got it up to a seven-point lead. There were a couple of untimely threes that we gave up and then you are just leaving a lot to chance down the stretch.”

That's a micro way of looking at the game, which is understandable. But it's time for macro, too.

There are a few teams who have underperformed in the NBA this season. Most notably among them are teams like the Boston Celtics, the Utah Jazz, the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Lakers. Each team has its own issues, whether it be injury, inconsistency or an exposed state of having a lack of talent around their star. What separates Dallas from that group of underachievers is the refusal to alter the approach to their game plan and starting lineups, no matter how much analytical data can be presented to justify a change.

Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith have played 395 minutes together this year. opponents only score 96.2 points per 100 possessions when they're on the court.



the league's best defense (milwaukee) is giving up 103.6 this season — Tim Cato (@tim_cato) January 28, 2019

In 20 games together, the Dennis-Wes-Luka-Harrison-DeAndre combination is 8-12 as a starting group. Coming into the game, there was only one lineup (Clippers) that held a worse net rating than the minus-7.8 for the Mavs' starting five in 300 minutes together on the floor. Add that to the overwhelming data of the Mavericks being significantly more efficient and successful with Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith on the floor, and you begin to see just a glimpse of the analytics in favor shaking things up.

Only one line up (clippers) that’s played 300 minutes or more has a worse net rating than the Mavs starters at -7.8



I wonder if something new happens tonight! — Luka-Industrial Complex, Chief Lobbyist (@KirkSeriousFace) January 28, 2019

More specifically, the Mavericks continued stubborn insistence to feature Wes Matthews and Harrison Barnes in both the starting lineup and as major keys to the offensive system has left them in a precarious state of now likely being too far back to make a serious push for playoff contention, and too far ahead in lottery standing to have a realistic shot keeping their draft pick. That decision making ultimately falls on not just one, but the entire Mavs 'Triangle of Trust" ... because this "Treadmill of Mediocrity'' is something Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson know all about, too.

The over-reliance of HB and Wes on both ends of the floor has become such a hindrance to the team as a whole that even a career-best performance from Luka Doncic (in which he became the first teenager ever to record two triple-doubles in the same season with 12 rebounds, 10 assists, and a career-high 35 points) was not enough to hide the Mavericks' shortcomings. The aforementioned veteran pair combined to shoot just 6-20 from the field and 3-12 from three while contributing just two assists throughout the entire game.

Wasting a performance like that has to be painful for Carlisle, but maybe, just maybe, losing in this fashion will be enough for him to finally begin to take action toward significant change.

“He played well. but this is a team thing," Carlisle said of Luka. "Listen, down the stretch, we didn’t do a good job against their zone and that is on me. That is totally a coaching thing. I have to do a better job of preparing these guys. That is on me. I take responsibility for the loss.”

While the Mavs had multiple problems throughout the night Barnes, in particular, played a major factor in the Mavs fourth-quarter collapse, taking a rushed, inopportune shot early in the shot clock in the final two minutes, followed by missing a pair of critical free throws late in the game with his team down just four points. This is not a new phenomenon, however, as in our view he has also shown an increased "tunnel vision'' mentality throughout the season that has served as a detriment to the team's offensive flow. In short, there have been far too many possessions in which Barnes has tried to make something out of nothing to devastating effect, in lieu of making a simple pass to an open teammate, and resetting the possession.

For a team that claims to be at least in part analytic-driven, the stubborn insistence to retread the same ground over and over again, and expect different results, borders on insanity. And Given that Dallas went out of its way to hire a “strategic thinker who will help examine on-court strategy in big-picture ways'' in Bob Voulgaris, one would think they would absorb the mountains of raw data that clearly state that the way they have approached the season's first 49 games has been poor ... and institute a change.

The big question moving forward, however, is how can this be fixed?

In truth, there are quite a few avenues they could consider taking to heal their wounds. One of those solutions would be to bring Matthews or Barnes (or both) off of the bench in a less involved capacity, in favor of inserting Kleber or Finney-Smith (or both) into more prominent roles. Another would be to simplify each of their roles within the offense by decreasing the amount of freedom they are given to create off of the dribble or as freelancers, and replacing that with simpler catch-and-shoot/Doug McDermott-type roles. The more obvious and perhaps more realistic scenario though would be to structure a trade around one of, or more preferably, both players, to bring back assets in return that would fit more smoothly next to ball-handlers like Smith Jr. and Doncic.

As it stands now, the Mavericks (22-27) now have just 10 days to make those decisions to change, and try to make a push at postseason basketball, or ride out the rest of the season in hopes that their next 33 games will somehow produce different results. With their next four games coming against teams that offer winnable circumstances, which conveniently enough leads them right up to the doorstep of the February 7 trade deadline, Dallas needs to make a decision on its future before it is too late, or else they risk the worst case scenario of no playoffs and no draft pick.