The rehabilitation and civic rights of displaced groups may seem like benign welfare measures. In most places, they would be. In Jammu and Kashmir, however, this is one of the trickiest issues which Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to deal with when he addresses a carefully orchestrated public meeting in Srinagar on Saturday.

The rehabilitation and civic rights of displaced groups may seem like benign welfare measures. In most places, they would be. In Jammu and Kashmir, however, this is one of the trickiest issues which Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to deal with when he addresses a carefully orchestrated public meeting in Srinagar on Saturday.

The Pandit community, displaced from the Valley in 1990, and refugees from West Pakistan who have settled in Jammu since 1947 will both be watching with narrowed eyes when the Prime Minister speaks. While most people in the state are agog with speculation about the size of the monetary 'package' the prime minister will announce, these two communities have particular hopes.

Though neither is sizeable, both were vocal backers of Modi’s BJP during both the Lok Sabha and the assembly elections in 2014. More politically crucial, both have great support among the BJP’s core base across north India. Although the prime minister has timed his visit such that his announcements in Kashmir do not affect the Bihar elections, frustration among these two small but vital constituencies could be costly for his party.

The requirements of both communities have become intensely contentious. The Partition refugees in Jammu have lacked civic rights since 1947. They are not recognized as state subjects, and so cannot vote in assembly elections, own property, get state subsidies or certain categories of admission.

Giving them these civic rights has been an explosive political issue, since many Kashmiris view it as demographic dilution of the state’s Muslim majority. Being Partition refugees, however, they are part of the BJP’s core constituency. They expect much from Modi, and his party managers know that not responding to their expectations could become a future campaign issue against the party.

Resettlement of Pandits has already become controversial over the past few months. Leading Pandit groups have asked for special areas to be chalked out for them in the Valley. The Centre responded earlier this year by announcing 'composite townships' for them. That term was variously interpreted, and pilloried by many in Kashmir.

Several Pandits argue that, in light of the terror they experienced when they fled the Valley in 1990, they do not feel secure unless they are among a majority of their own. Most Kashmiri Muslims fiercely resist any kind of special zones, holding that Pandit families are most welcome to resettle scattered among the majority population, but not to build separate ghettos.

Mehbooba Mufti, president of the People’s Democratic Party, has taken that stand publicly. The PDP rules the state in coalition with the BJP and the much smaller People’s Conference of Sajad Lone. All three parties are straining every sinew to ensure that the prime minister’s public meeting on Saturday is a success.

Dr Jitendra Singh, Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office, and Ram Madhav, BJP general secretary in charge, both arrived in Srinagar on Friday to join in preparations. Dr Singh hails from Jammu and was a leading light of the 2008 agitations which boosted the BJP hugely in the Jammu region.

At one level, the success of all the preparations will be judged negatively – if Modi is not challenged by any slogans or flags. Hundreds of young men have been detained over the past week and curfew-like restrictions will be imposed on Saturday to ensure that no protestors get to the site of the public meeting.

Every MLA of the coalition has been given a quota to add to the audience. Sajad Lone has been the most enthusiastic about mobilizing a crowd. Srinagar is agog with talk of daily-wagers, police trainees and Special Police Officers augmenting the prime minister’s audience.

The Jammu-Srinagar highway is closed, so that vehicles bringing people mobilized by BJP MLAs have easy access. Many were brought to the Valley in buses on Friday and housed there overnight.

MLA Rashid Ahmed, who was recently in the limelight after hosting a beef party, has been arrested ahead of the prime minister’s visit. He had announced that he would receive Modi with black flags. Leaders of the Hurriyat Conference and other separatist groups are under house arrest, also since Wednesday.

Already over the past couple of days, there have been police barricades and checks on different arterial roads across the Valley. A bomb-proof BMW and several other luxury vehicles have arrived in Kashmir for the prime minister’s visit.

All this back-breaking logistical effort by the police force and the ruling coalition partners could easily come to naught if any protests were to surface despite all the repression that has been brought to bear.

An even greater source of tension for the organizers is the huge question that hangs over whether the prime minister’s announcements will satisfy the diverse array of political expectations in this currently polarized state. Such small but politically salient groups as the Pandits and the Partition refugees in Jammu could prove vital.