The use of fossil fuels, such as coal, for generating electricity fell in 2019 in the United States. Is natural gas the culprit or will nuclear power outperform them both? Fossil fuels aren't just losing popularity, they’re losing funding. Brown University announced that it plans to cut campus greenhouse-gas emissions by 75% by 2025 and halt the university’s investments in fossil-fuel extraction companies.

Fossil Fuels Decline

Tomas Kaberger, energy professor at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, provided power generation data to Reuters. The data covering more than 70% of the world’s power generation showed that for 2019 the amount of power sourced from fossil fuels dropped by 156 terawatt hours (TWh) from the year before. Could this decline mark the beginning of the end of fossil fuel reliant energy sources? If so, it won’t happen overnight. Despite recent closures and declines in demand, coal is still projected to retain the largest share of the electricity generation mix to 2035. Due to environmental constraints, low efficiency and a continued drop in gas prices compared to coal and tax policies promoting renewables more than 53 GWe have been retired.

Natural gas consumption in the United States increased by 3% in 2019, reaching a record of 85 billion cubic feet per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. With increased demand, providers face increased scrutiny for CO2 emissions. Despite rollbacks on regulations allowing companies to acquire permits with less focus on the environmental impact, members of the oil and gas industry are eager for the federal government to designate a nationwide agency that would establish cohesive emissions standards across state lines. “Attempting to follow each state’s climate and environmental laws is difficult when constructing nationwide energy infrastructure, such as a natural gas pipeline, said Alan Armstrong, CEO of Williams Companies. Jason Grumet, president of the Bipartisan Policy Center believes to get to zero emissions, a “vastly new national infrastructure is required. States don’t have the geographic or economic resources to make that happen, and they need “support at the federal policy ecosystem.”

In lieu of federal standards, individual states are setting their own climate goals. The state wants to reach 100% renewable energy by 2040, and have signed legislation to decarbonize Colorado’s economy by 90% below 2005 levels by 2050. “In the absence of federal leadership, states like Colorado have stepped up and are taking action to protect our environment and way of life,” said a spokesperson for Gov. Jared Polis. Houston-based natural gas and electric utility CenterPoint Energy unveiled a plan to reduce operational greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 70% by 2035. CenterPoint “is in the process of compiling its collective reductions against 2005 levels after a recent merger with Vectren. CenterPoint, whose base of metered natural gas and electric customers totals more than 7 million across eight states, said it “is among the first energy delivery companies to make an emissions-reduction commitment across a multi-state footprint.” How are they planning to achieve this ambitious goal? What will it mean for renewables or emissions and natural gas consumption? A CenterPoint spokesperson assured media, “More detail supporting those emission reduction efforts will be shared in the forthcoming corporate responsibility report.” It is interesting to note that the announcement comes as a growing number of municipalities, particularly in states such as California and New York, have laid the groundwork for phasing out natural gas entirely from new buildings. Will nuclear power be generated to replace natural gas?

Outside the Box

Bringing a whole new meaning to accessibility, Bret Kugelmass, mechanical engineer-turned-tech entrepreneur has plans to empower people around the world to build their own 100-megawatt nuclear power reactors. “Today, we offer reference plant schematics and a platform to compile ongoing design work. With the help of our partners and the National Labs, these drawings will evolve into a fully detailed, ready-to-build blueprint,” the project website says. Recognizing nuclear as a cleaner power source when compared to carbon emitting sources, Energy Impact Center exists to feed new technology into the nuclear startup development pipeline. But until the Nuclear Regulatory Commission welcomes open-source plans for you to build your own neighborhood nuclear power reactor, individual state legislatures are creating their own solutions.

A Pending Invitation

Will nuclear power be considered to reach climate goals? Should nuclear power be counted as a clean energy source? A member of the California Legislature from the district that includes the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant has introduced a bill that would add nuclear power to the state’s list of renewable energy sources. “Without nuclear as part of the renewable portfolio, we’re going to have tremendous difficulty meeting the state’s climate goals without a significant cost increase on electricity ratepayers,” said Jordan Cunningham, R-San Luis Obispo. Currently, California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard lists solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, small hydroelectric facilities and tidal currents. Nuclear power was excluded from the list for reasons that fuel an ongoing debate. Renewables are defined as energy derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly. In its various forms, it derives directly from the sun, or from heat generated deep within the earth. Included in the definition is electricity and heat generated from sunlight, wind, oceans, hydropower, biomass, geothermal resources, and biofuels and hydrogen derived from renewable resources. Critics say nuclear power by definition cannot be considered renewable because it leaves behind waste in the form of spent nuclear fuel that then has to be stored. Transport, storage and the issue of ‘unacceptable risk’ continues unresolved. Proponents argue nuclear energy protects air quality, its land footprint is small and while it does produces waste, it is minimal. Despite these disagreements, the U.S. is the world's largest producer of nuclear power, accounting for more than 30% of worldwide nuclear generation of electricity and 63% of the nation’s carbon-free electricity. In 2018, the US electricity generation totaled 4178 TWh (billion kWh) net, with 807 TWh (19%) coming from nuclear. There are 98 operating nuclear power reactors in 30 states, operated by 30 different power companies. Nuclear power plant operators also have to compete with low-cost gas and subsidized wind power with priority grid access. Nuclear power plant growth slowed largely because gas generation was considered more economically attractive. Now, ironically, climate concerns on the rise and the tables may turn. The industry could continue to change, switching from coal to gas to renewables. And if California passes this bill and nuclear power is granted a seat at the table, it could become a leader in ‘clean energy.’ Clean or not, Xcel Energy is hoping to clean up their act with nuclear power. The companies decision to retire coal plants and remove carbon emissions from the state’s power grid relies heavily on whether or not they can keep three Minnesota nuclear reactors operating for a few more decades.

Wouldn’t It Be Nice..

In the 1990’s government policy changes created significant growth in nuclear capacity. Soon, the same may be true in California and possible the nation. Led by the United States, Canada and Japan, the NICE Future Initiative aims to ensure that nuclear energy receives appropriate representation in high-level discussions about clean energy. Appropriate representation is by no means a guarantee of inclusion. Whether experts are for or against the idea, they seem to agree on one thing, the 32% CO2 reduction by 2030 will be impossible without at least the present level of nuclear contribution. Others are still convinced that baby steps from coal to gas to nuclear should be replaced with one giant leap to renewables. Warren Buffett has the secret to success when it comes to renewables. What differentiates Berkshire Hathaway Energy from a lot of the competition in the utility space is that it owns the means to generate, store, transmit and supply renewable power to its customers across the U.S., U.K. and Canada. This cuts out the middle men and results in cheaper electricity bills for customers. Energy professor at Chalmers University of Technology, Tomas Kaberger concluded, “It is economics driving this as low-cost renewable electricity outcompetes against fossil and nuclear power plants.”