When Norman Borlaug won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 he thought it was a hoax, although the award was richly deserved. The American agronomist had spent the preceding two decades bringing food security to Mexico, India, and Pakistan with high-yield, disease-resistant strains of wheat, progressive agricultural techniques, and new approaches to irrigation. His so-called ‘Green Revolution’ delivered handsomely. Within half a century, Borlaug and his acolytes had halved the area of agricultural land required to feed a single person while increasing global agricultural production by up to 300% using only a 12% increase in land.

His secret was to breed dwarf varieties of wheat that grew with short, strong stems. The wheat cultivars that proliferated previously developed with long, spindly stalks that collapsed and withered under the weight of bulky seed heads engorged from the liberal application of mineral fertilizer.

He also depended largely on the development of monocultures — vast areas of land given over to a single crop variety. These high-yield crops were inundated by irrigation and chemical pesticides. We now know that his methods were damaging to the biosphere, but at the time they were necessary; they saved many millions from certain starvation.

Borlaug was well aware of these shortcomings and warned in his Nobel Laureate speech that his innovations would not have lasting effects. “The Green Revolution has won a temporary success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation;” he said, “it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will be ephemeral only. Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the ‘Population Monster’.”

“…Since man is potentially a rational being, however, I am confident that within the next two decades he will recognize the self-destructive course he steers along the road of irresponsible population growth…”

Borlaug may have been overly trusting of mankind’s rationality. In the four decades since his speech, global agriculture has come to be defined by nutritionally-depleted, eroded soils, deforestation, run-off pollution, eutrophication and wasteful use of water sources, pesticide-resistant plagues, and a crippling of biodiversity. Some estimates suggest we may only have 60 good harvests left in our topsoil and our natural flora and fauna are disappearing at an alarming rate; some 17,315 species of mammals, birds, plants, insects, coral, fungi, and others are now teetering on the verge of extinction according to the IUCN. Simultaneously, the human population has almost doubled.

Our current food production systems serve to feed the profits of a small handful of giant multinational corporations whose monopolistic practices focus on growing a few genetically uniform monocultures. Meanwhile, most of the world’s 2.5 billion rural subsistence farmers lack secure access to the land and resources that sustain them.

Frustratingly, much of the damage wrought by our globalised food supply occurs without reward. Up to 50% of the food we produce is wasted. Current production would be sufficient to feed a population of almost 14 billion people, but nearly a billion live in starvation while 1.5 billion adults now suffer from ‘diseases of excess’ (the world population of diabetics now exceeds the total population of the US). The rate at which we consume is also doing us harm and our lust for animal flesh has incubated a new generation of superbugs resistant to conventional antibiotics.

Qay’s theory suggests that the best way to deal with this is to continue as we are, to keep producing more; more high- yielding crops produced on more land to feed more mouths. But, as Borlaug and Malthus predicted, yields have reached their peak. The four crops on which the global food supply depends — wheat, rice, maize and soybean — no longer show signs of game-changing increases in production despite technological and biochemical interventions. There will not be a second green revolution for these four crops and addressing the global food problem requires a new set of solutions; ecological diversification is key.

This is not the only change required to bring longevity, stability, and equity to our food systems; access to the resources upon which our means of sustenance depends must be increased for individuals and communities to achieve sovereignty over their food supply. Political, corporate, logistical, and consumer systems all require rethinking and rebalancing to work in harmony with the ecosystem. It’s time to find the methods and means to make Borlaug’s temporary solution permanent.