80% 56% 60% 40% 20% Share of decisions considered liberal ’40 ’50 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 ’00 ’10 ’15 80% 56% 60% 40% 20% Share of decisions considered liberal ’40 ’50 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 ’00 ’10 ’15 80% 56% 60% 40% 20% Share of decisions considered liberal ’40 ’50 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 ’00 ’10 ’15 80% 56% 60% 40% 20% Share of decisions considered liberal ’40 ’60 ’80 ’00 ’15 Note: Only non-unanimous, signed decisions in argued cases are included. | Source: Analysis by Lee Epstein, Washington University in St. Louis, and Kevin Quinn, University of California, Berkeley, using the Supreme Court Database.

The court’s decisions continued a leftward trend, one that would have probably been amplified by the addition of Judge Garland to the court.

The court issued liberal decisions in 56 percent of cases so far this term, according to a widely accepted standard developed by political scientists that considers signed decisions in argued cases. The share is only slightly lower than in the 2014-15 term, which had the highest share of liberal decisions since the court led by Chief Justice Earl Warren in the 1950s and 1960s.

Judge Garland would probably fit squarely among the liberal bloc of the court, according to an analysis of his appeals court record. (A low-end estimate would put him slightly more conservative than Justice Stephen G. Breyer, and a high-end estimate more liberal than Justice Sonia Sotomayor.)

Share of votes considered liberal (During Roberts Court) 25% 50% 75% Where scholars estimate Merrick Garland would fall Kennedy Thomas Alito Roberts Breyer Kagan Sotomayor Ginsburg Share of votes considered liberal 25% 50% 75% Where scholars estimate Merrick Garland would fall (During Roberts Court) Kennedy Thomas Alito Roberts Breyer Kagan Sotomayor Ginsburg Share of votes considered liberal (During Roberts Court) 25% 50% 75% Where scholars estimate Merrick Garland would fall Thomas Alito Kennedy Breyer Kagan Sotomayor Roberts Ginsburg Where scholars estimate Merrick Garland would fall 25% 50% 75% Share of votes considered liberal (During Roberts Court) Kennedy Thomas Alito Roberts Breyer Kagan Sotomayor Ginsburg Note: Only non-unanimous cases during the Roberts court (which began in 2005) are included. | Source: Analysis by Lee Epstein, Washington University in St. Louis, and Kevin Quinn, University of California, Berkeley, using the Court of Appeals Judicial Common Space scores.

With eight justices, some major decisions were deadlocked.

The eight-member court issued a handful of 4-4 opinions, decisions that were directly affected by the death of Justice Scalia in February and the absence of a replacement. The last time the court had a vacancy longer than this one was in 1987-88, when Justice Anthony M. Kennedy filled the seat of Lewis F. Powell Jr. eight months after Justice Powell’s retirement.

On Thursday, the court was evenly split in a case considering whether the Obama administration could shield as many as five million unauthorized immigrants from deportation and to allow them to work. The tie resulted in a major loss for the administration, affirming the lower court decision and upholding a nationwide injunction blocking the program.

Because the case was affirmed 4 to 4, no precedent was set and justice splits were not disclosed. Here is the likely lineup, based on questioning during the oral arguments and earlier votes:

LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH ADMINISTRATION CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY OPPOSED ADMINISTRATION Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY OPPOSED ADMINISTRATION LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH ADMINISTRATION Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH ADMINISTRATION Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY OPPOSED ADMINISTRATION Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH ADMINISTRATION Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY OPPOSED ADMINISTRATION Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas

Should Judge Garland have been approved by the Senate in time to weigh in on the case, he may have sided with the administration, resulting in a 5-4 decision.

In March, the court also voted 4 to 4 in a public unions case, affirming an appeals court’s decision that said that public employees who choose not to join unions may be required to pay union fees. The likely lineup:

LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH UNIONS CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY SIDED AGAINST UNIONS Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH UNIONS CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY SIDED AGAINST UNIONS Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH UNIONS Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY SIDED AGAINST UNIONS Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas LIBERAL BLOC LIKELY SIDED WITH UNIONS Sotomayor Kagan Ginsburg Breyer CONSERVATIVE BLOC LIKELY SIDED AGAINST UNIONS Kennedy Roberts Alito Thomas

In this case, the addition of Justice Scalia to the conservative bloc would have resulted in a loss for organized labor; the addition of Justice Garland to the liberal bloc would have produced the same decision but also set a precedent.

Since the death of Justice Scalia, the justices have been more likely to form consensus.

Each justice is now voting in the majority in non-unanimous cases either more than or with about the same frequency as in the past, with the exception of Justice Clarence Thomas.

Justice Kennedy maintained his position as the court’s swing justice, while three of the liberal justices — Justice Elena Kagan, Justice Breyer and Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — significantly increased their percentages in the majority.

Percentage of decisions in the majority Before Justice Scalia’s death Since Justice Scalia’s death Kennedy Kagan Breyer Ginsburg Roberts Alito Sotomayor Thomas 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of decisions in the majority Before Justice Scalia’s death Since Justice Scalia’s death Kennedy Kagan Breyer Ginsburg Roberts Alito Sotomayor Thomas 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of decisions in the majority Before Justice Scalia’s death Since Justice Scalia’s death Kennedy Kagan Breyer Ginsburg Roberts Alito Sotomayor Thomas 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of decisions in the majority Before Justice Scalia’s death Since Justice Scalia’s death Kennedy Kagan Breyer Ginsburg Roberts Alito Sotomayor Thomas 40% 60% 80% Note: Only non-unanimous cases during the Roberts court (which began in 2005) are included. | Source: Analysis by Lee Epstein, Washington University in St. Louis, and Kevin Quinn, University of California, Berkeley, using the Supreme Court Database.

Justice Sotomayor has become the most liberal justice, and three members of the conservative bloc are drifting left.

Justice ideology based on Martin-Quinn scores Nominated by a Republican Nominated by a Democrat MORE CONSERVATIVE +4 MORE LIBERAL Thomas +2 Scalia Alito Roberts +0 Median justice Kennedy Breyer Kagan –2 Ginsburg Sotomayor –4 1990 2000 2010 2015 term Justice ideology based on Martin-Quinn scores Nominated by a Republican Nominated by a Democrat MORE CONSERVATIVE MORE LIBERAL +4 Thomas +2 Scalia Alito Roberts +0 Median justice Kennedy Breyer Kagan –2 Ginsburg Sotomayor –4 1990 2000 2010 2015 term Justice ideology based on Martin-Quinn scores Nominated by a Democrat Nominated by a Republican MORE CONSERVATIVE +4 MORE LIBERAL Thomas +2 Scalia Alito Roberts +0 Median justice Kennedy Breyer Kagan –2 Ginsburg Sotomayor –4 1990 2000 2010 2015 term Justice ideology based on Martin-Quinn scores Nominated by a Democrat Nominated by a Republican MORE CONSERVATIVE MORE LIBERAL +4 Thomas +2 Scalia Alito Roberts +0 Median justice Kennedy Breyer Kagan –2 Ginsburg Sotomayor –4 1990 2000 2010 2015 term Note: Scores are preliminary and do not include cases decided after June 23. | Source: Analysis by Lee Epstein, Washington University in St. Louis; Andrew D. Martin, University of Michigan; and Kevin Quinn, University of California, Berkeley, using the Supreme Court Database.

Individual justice ideology scores, which are based on voting patterns, also illustrate the court’s leftward shift. With the exception of Justice Thomas, the conservative justice scores moved closer to their liberal counterparts.