Newspoll puts the government at 51% to Labor’s 49% on two-party preferred measure, a change from 46% to 54% in the last survey under Tony Abbott

Malcolm Turnbull’s ascension to the Liberal party leadership has put the government back in front of Labor for the first time since the Coalition’s deeply unpopular first budget.



The latest Newspoll published in the Australian on Monday night puts the government ahead on the two-party preferred measure at 51% to Labor’s 49%.

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The final Newspoll taken under Tony Abbott’s leadership had Labor with a commanding lead at 54% to 46%, so the leadership change has delivered the Coalition a five-point bounce. Labor had led the government in 30 consecutive Newspolls before the leadership change.

Turnbull also rates positively on the preferred prime minister measure, where he leads Bill Shorten 55% to 21%. A fortnight ago Shorten led Abbott as preferred prime minister 41% to 37%.

Shorten recorded an approval rating of 29% and disapproval of 54% – largely unchanged from the last Newspoll survey; while Turnbull’s approval was 42% and his disapproval was 24%.

Unsurprisingly, given he has only just returned to the Liberal party leadership, a substantial proportion of the sample remains undecided about Turnbull’s performance as prime minister – 34%.

The fortnightly survey polled 1,645 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. It was taken after Turnbull’s successful challenge to Abbott’s leadership but before the unveiling of the new ministry.

The poll bounce also follows the Liberal party’s victory in the weekend byelection in Canning, Western Australia, where the government a suffered a negative swing of 6.42%.

Appearing on the ABC’s Q&A program on Monday in advance of the publication of Newspoll, Shorten predicted Turnbull would deliver the government a bounce in the opinion polls.

He said anyone who replaced Abbott as prime minister would be marked up by Australian voters. He hoped he would have been the person to replace him, but that ambition notwithstanding, he argued Abbott’s departure was “a good thing for this country”.

During his solo Q&A outing, Shorten faced a number of questions about his past as a trade union official and about his evidence before the trade union royal commission concerning workplace deals and payments by employers to the Australian Workers’ Union.

In a separate appearance on the ABC’s 7.30, the new prime minister continued the process of resetting the government’s broad direction while declining to discuss policy specifics.

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On Monday the new ministry was sworn in and the Turnbull cabinet met for the first time.

Turnbull said on Monday evening he had learned valuable life lessons from his first stint as the Liberal party leader in opposition. “I’m wiser about people,” he said.

“I feel much more confident and centred in myself. But not in a sort of ebullient way, I just feel quietly confident and settled.

“I’m at peace with myself – and I feel that the leadership I can provide to Australia will make a difference.”