Queensland Premier Campbell Newman will struggle to hold on to his seat of Ashgrove at this weekend's election, new polling suggests.

The Queensland election campaign has been widely billed as the contest the LNP cannot lose.

Labor needs an enormous swing of more than 12 per cent to regain office, and it would be unprecedented for an electorate to switch back to a party it so comprehensively rejected less than three years ago.

But less than half of this swing is needed for Labor's Kate Jones to defeat Mr Newman in Ashgrove, in Brisbane's inner west.

A 7 News ReachTEL poll released late Wednesday revealed a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Ms Jones, and just 42 per cent for Mr Newman.

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Extrapolating for two-party preferred, the ALP would win with 54 per cent of the vote to Mr Newman's 46 per cent.

This unusual scenario – in which a political party retains office but loses its leader – is a reflection of the unorthodox way in which Mr Newman entered state politics.

The former Brisbane lord mayor was elected leader of the party before he even entered the Parliament, and the only seat the LNP could find for Mr Newman was the then-marginal Labor seat of Ashgrove.

Although Mr Newman eventually won the seat with a 5.7 per cent margin, there was always a question mark over his 2015 campaign.

LNP pledge $18m for Ashgrove, far less for bordering electorates

Even before the latest poll, there has been plenty of evidence the LNP was worried about the Premier's prospects in Ashgrove, with accusations he was pork-barrelling his electorate.

At the start of the campaign, Mr Newman announced his "Ashgrove plan", comprising more than $18 million worth of specific promises for upgrades of roads, sporting, recreation and school facilities in his electorate.

"This is what every member of my team will be doing over the coming days; they will also be talking about their specific local plan for each of the electorates across Queensland," the Premier told journalists on January 11.

The 7.30 program asked for the local plans from the five LNP seats bordering Ashgrove – none of them had election promises anywhere near $18 million.

The figures given to the ABC reveal promises of $6.5 million for Brisbane Central, $2.1 million for Mount Coot-tha, $1.5 million for Moggill, $1 million for Everton and $2.5 million for Ferny Grove.

Former LNP MP Chris Davis, who is now running his own anti-LNP campaign, was highly critical of the Premier's proposed spending in Ashgrove.

"I think this is a form of inducement to vote, and one has to ask where that money is coming from at what cost," Dr Davis said.

"Is Ashgrove needier than other electorates? I would suggest to you it's probably amongst the least needy, given the relative wealth of Ashgrove and ability of local Ashgrovians to raise money."

7.30 asked the Premier about the discrepancy between his promises for Ashgrove and the money being pledged in neighbouring seats.

Mr Newman declined to address the issue of pork-barrelling directly, but argued the benefits of the LNP's economic administration were being felt across the state.

"I have a strong plan for Ashgrove, but I point to the strong plans of other local members who are delivering fantastic road infrastructure upgrades," he said.

"Things like the Sunshine Coast rail upgrade that will take cars off the Bruce Highway.

"Everywhere across this state, there are vital projects that the LNP will deliver if we're re-elected, and we can fund those projects, we will deliver them, and I just say if we don't have a strong LNP government, those things don't happen."



Kate Jones strategy smart: former Liberal campaign chairman

A former Liberal Party campaign chairman says Ms Jones is running a smart campaign, keeping things as local as possible while Mr Newman talks about the big economic picture.

Ms Jones, a seasoned political campaigner, held the seat of Ashgrove for two terms under the Beattie and Bligh Governments, and was a former minister for the environment before losing her seat in the 2012 landslide.

In 2015, she has kept her media appearances to a minimum.

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"I am someone who is part of the community, who lives here and listens," she told the ABC.

She added: "As a local who lives here, this is my community, we deserve better than Campbell Newman's cuts and job losses."

Graham Young, who now runs the Brisbane-based Australian Institute for Progress, said Ms Jones was fostering an "underdog" image.

"The ALP is running a protest vote campaign, and one of the keys to a protest vote campaign is looking like you're not going to win, so Kate's running that sort of 'I'm an outsider, I'm an underdog, I'm a local, he's-the-guy-with-all-the-power' type of line, and that will work best for her in the seat," Mr Young said.

And what can the Premier do to counter this?

Mr Young said old-fashioned door-knocking of the electorate would not really help.

"If his personal vote isn't all that good, then he's got to trade on the fact that he's Premier so to a certain extent," Mr Young said.

"If that's his major asset then he's enhancing it by doing a statewide campaign rather than doorknocking all the time."