16. Chicago Bears

Current cap space: $4,929,361

Primary free agents: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, DL Nick Williams, LB Danny Trevathan, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, QB Chase Daniel

In the end, it doesn’t really matter that the Bears have a young running back with potential in David Montgomery, or a talented group of receivers, or a great defense, or a gifted offensive mind in head coach Matt Nagy. Because when you’re albatrossed at quarterback like Chicago is with Mitchell Trubisky, all that other stuff will become more meaningless than it should be. In the offseason, the Bears hired Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator and John DeFilippo as quarterbacks coach, and announced Dave Ragone’s promotion from quarterbacks coach to passing game coordinator. Throw those guys on top of Nagy’s at times brilliant passing game schemes, and there are no more excuses for Trubisky. The Bears made an enormous, franchise-defining mistake when they moved up in the 2017 draft to select Trubisky No. 2 overall, leaving Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson on the board, and nothing has made their guy a consistent quarterback. If it doesn’t happen in 2020 with all that coaching capital, Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace will find themselves pressed against the wall.

15. Arizona Cardinals

Current cap space: $53,657,294

Primary free agents: RB Kenyan Drake, OT D.J. Humphries, TE Charles Clay, DL Rodney Gunter, DT Zach Kerr

If 2018 was the Year of Mahomes and 2019 was the Year of Lamar … well, it’s quite possible that 2020 could be the season in which Kyler Murray ascends to the top group of the quarterback pantheon. In his rookie season, Murray put up two games with passer ratings over 100 against a fierce 49ers defense, and he didn’t look overwhelmed against any defense. There’s a lot to build on there, especially since Murray looks like a natural fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Questions surround the legitimacy of Murray’s weapons, with David Johnson’s possible upcoming release and the lack of a No. 1 receiver outside of 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, and the defense is in need of retooling aside from a few key pieces. But in what should be a murderously competitive NFC West, at least the Cardinals have the game’s most important position sewn up.

14. Dallas Cowboys

Current cap space: $77,234,623

Primary free agents: QB Dak Prescott, WR Amari Cooper, DE Michael Bennett, WR Randall Cobb, CB Byron Jones, LB Sean Lee

Following an 8-8 season in which his coaching decisions were frequently and justifiably questioned, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett was cashiered after nine-plus seasons. To replace him, owner Jerry Jones hired Mike McCarthy, the former Packers head coach whose year off in 2019 put him in Pro Football Focus’ offices and hanging out with a bunch of former head coaches, trying to find an edge for his return. McCarthy has said all the right things about analytics and game theory; if that makes him more inclined to have a usable playbook longer than three pages, the Cowboys should be in decent shape, as long as they get Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper re-signed. But what if this is fool’s gold, and McCarthy 2.0 turns out to be vaporware? Dak Prescott is many things, but he isn’t an Aaron-Rodgers-in-his-prime who can erase coaching malfeasance to that level.

13. Philadelphia Eagles

Current cap space: $40,930,800

Primary free agents: OT Jason Peters, S Rodney McLeod, WR Nelson Agholor, DE Vinny Curry

The Eagles finished 9-7 last season, their second year in a row with such a record after their Super Bowl win at the end of the 2017 campaign. We’re inclined to give Doug Pederson’s team a relative pass for a couple of reasons — a running game that had Miles Sanders leading all backs with just 818 yards, and more importantly, an absolutely horrific slate of receiver injuries that resulted in Greg Ward and Robert Davis as the team’s starting wideouts in Philly’s wild-card loss to the Seahawks. Quite a step down from the ideal of DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. If the Eagles can reassemble that offense and improve on a defense that had its moments despite all the inconsistency, the Eagles could do more than just win a weak NFC East in 2020.

12. Indianapolis Colts

Current cap space: $86,162,964

Primary free agents: LT Anthony Castonzo, DL Jabaal Sheard, TE Eric Ebron, S Clayton Geathers

Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement last August left the Colts in a pickle. Expected to compete at a high level with their franchise quarterback guiding a team adeptly constructed by general manager Chris Ballard and expertly coached by Frank Reich and his staff, Indy was left with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who they knew from his 2017 season spelling the injured Luck. Sometimes it worked; sometimes it didn’t. Brissett completed 60.9% of his passes for 2,942 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions — not bad numbers, but the Colts’ passing game was almost completely missing the explosive plays needed to wrestle with the NFL’s best defenses. A 7-9 record isn’t good enough for the Colts, and Brissett may not be, either.

“Jacoby did some good things … but our passing game has to improve, unequivocally,” Ballard said at the end of the season. “The jury is still out.”

Generally speaking, when a GM says the jury is still out on a quarterback, the jury has already come back with a unanimous verdict. So watch for the Colts to take their scads of cap space (only the Dolphins have more going into the 2020 offseason) and address this with a certainty. They may have run out of Luck last year, but the Colts are in no way a falling or failing team.

11. Houston Texans

Current cap space: $55,192,117

Primary free agents: CB Bradley Roby, CB Johnathan Joseph, DT D.J. Reader, TE Darren Fells, S Jahleel Addae, RB Carlos Hyde

Last we heard from Bill O’Brien, the Texans’ head coach was coming off a historic walloping in the divisional round at the hands of the Chiefs, who shook off a 24-0 deficit and went on to break O’Brien’s team in half with seven consecutive touchdown drives in a 51-31 rout. O’Brien’s game mismanagement was somehow rewarded with more power in the organization and the title of general manager, while defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel — whose decision to play man coverage over and over against the Chiefs was highly problematic — was asked to take an advisory role, whatever that means. It’s a weird time for a Texans team with a legitimate Super Bowl window if everything goes well, but it will take a lot to recover from the way the 2019 season ended, especially with O’Brien in charge of so much.

10. Minnesota Vikings

Current cap space: (minus-$11,366,514)

Primary free agents: S Anthony Harris, S Andrew Sendejo, CB Trae Waynes, CB Mackensie Alexander

When you look at Minnesota’s list of impending free agents, you see the real problem with Mike Zimmer’s team coming into the 2020 league year. It’s not the limitations of quarterback Kirk Cousins, though that will be an issue wherever Cousins lines up under center. It’s a secondary that seriously underperformed in certain areas (the cornerbacks) and was seriously underrated in other areas (the safeties). Harris, one of the most valuable defensive players in the league, was the only player to pick off seven passes without allowing a touchdown in the 2019 season. He’s about to get Tyrann Mathieu money or more. Waynes and Alexander present more complicated problems. Waynes and battery mate Xavier Rhodes allowed nine touchdowns and had just one interception between them, and while Alexander was more consistent in a positive way, when you have a situation where you need to replace the production of two starting outside cornerbacks, and you are over the cap by more than $11 million, and you would like to retain one of the best safeties in the NFL … let’s just say the Vikings might be in for a major defensive regression in 2020.

9. Buffalo Bills

Current cap space: $80,186,963

Primary free agents: DL Jordan Phillips, RB Frank Gore, CB Kevin Johnson, DE Shaq Lawson

Given the Patriots’ possible offseason instability, the Bills are in a good position to potentially take over the AFC East. They have an outstanding defense, led by cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is the league’s best zone defender. They have a dynamic running game with the tag team of Devin Singletary and Frank Gore, though the veteran Gore may play elsewhere in 2020. The Bills also have John Brown, who might be the NFL’s most underrated receiver. And the coaching staff, led by Sean McDermott, clearly has what it takes to ascend. The primary question is whether quarterback Josh Allen can become enough of a pure passer to take that offense to the proverbial next level. A great runner and occasionally a real threat as a deep passer, Allen still struggles with accuracy and consistency, and this really came through in Buffalo’s 22-19 wild-card loss to the Texans. Allen had the ball as the primary instigator on 56 plays — 46 passing attempts, nine runs and one reception — and the only touchdown the Bills scored on the day was Allen’s 16-yard reception from Brown. If Allen isn’t able to take his game to a trusted place, the Bills will be stuck in second gear — and second place.

32-25 | 24-17 | 16-9 | 8-1