On April 15, 2009, the first known case of H1N1 flu was identified in a patient in California. Only two days later, a second case was identified 130 miles away. There was no known contact between the two cases, and attempts to trace their connections found no one in common. Later analysis suggested that the disease actually made the jump to humans in northern Mexico among workers at a farm raising pigs for an American company. However, these cases were only identified after the epidemic was underway.

There was never any opportunity to limit the outbreak in the United States, because it began in the United States. There was never any opportunity to move before the virus had begun to be spread through the community, because community spread inside the United States was already happening before anyone knew the virus existed. The day after that second case was identified, April 18, the United States reported the infections to the World Health Organization, and the fight against H1N1 had begun.

The origins of the 2019 novel coronavirus are obviously quite different. Though intelligence reports had indicated that there was an infection spreading through the city of Wuhan in November, the timeline from both the World Health Organization and researchers who have investigated the outbreak suggests that the first human-to-human transmission of the disease that would soon be named COVID-19 occurred somewhere in the early days of December, in or near the city of Wuhan. Attempts by a group of doctors in Wuhan to warn against the first known cases of that disease, followed by interference and a brief stint in jail for some of the doctors, happened around Dec. 22. The official notification to the WHO was made on Dec. 31, at a point where 44 patients were identified as being infected with a novel coronavirus.

Starting with the dates on which the outbreak was first definitively known to the United States government, this is what came after:

Day 2009 H1N1 2020 COVID-19 0 First confirmed H1N1 case in the U.S. WHO is informed of the outbreak in Hubei and of 44 known patients with a novel coronavirus 2 Proof of community spread in U.S. 6 CDC begins work on candidate vaccine 7 CDC activates emergency response center 8 Additional cases in Texas show that H1N1 is already circulating widely in U.S. 9 CDC completes genetic sequencing of H1N1 virus and publishes results 10 WHO declares world health emergency 11 President Obama declares H1N1 a national health emergency

CDC distributes 25% of antiviral drugs from national stockpile to states to prepare for treatment of local cases 12 European Union suspends nonessential travel to United States following first confirmed case in Spain China reports first death from COVID-19 13 FDA approves the first test for H1N1 virus

Federal guidelines published recommending school closures

CDC reports first death from H1N1 flu Chinese authorities complete genetic sequence for the 2019 novel coronavirus 14 WHO raises pandemic alert to level 5 Thailand reports first known case of infection outside of China 15 CDC begins shipping tests across the country, as well as to WHO and other nations 18 First test kits for COVID-19 are made widely available after development by German scientists 19 CDC announces it will report probable cases in addition to confirmed cases to ensure resources are being allocated correctly 20 Peak day of school closures; many schools dismiss early for the year 21 CDC completes early testing and publishes guidelines and dosages for using antivirals in treating H1N1

CDC passes 1,000,000 tests shipped 23 First case of COVID-19 in U.S. is a man returning from Wuhan to Washington state 25 With schools closed, widespread testing in place, and flu season waning with the onset of summer, the first wave of H1N1 cases begins a steep decline China imposes tough lockdown on Hubei Province, restricting travel and closing businesses and schools 26 CDC announces development of its own test

China begins using antibody test that can detect both active and recovered cases 30 Total U.S. deaths — 1 Total U.S. deaths — 0 31 WHO provides first shipment of 250,000 test kits to 150 countries 36 FDA approves test kit developed by CDC 38 CDC ships a total of 90 test kits 44 CDC announces an error in tests and withdraws shipments in progress 57 First case of suspected community transmission within the United States is identified in California 60 Slow spread of virus continues through summer, reaching all 50 states by June 19 First death from COVID-19 within the United States

Only three public health labs have CDC tests 60 Total U.S. deaths — 16 Total U.S. deaths — 1 61 CDC allows others within U.S. to begin development of their own tests 68 Mike Pence insists that 1,000,000 tests have been shipped

Actual number of tests conducted is less than 2,000 76 Donald Trump declares national health emergency

CDC provides first guidance warning against large gatherings 79 COVID-19 cases confirmed in all 50 states 90 Total U.S. deaths — 153 Total U.S. deaths — 2,583 97 Clinical trials of vaccine begin 100 Trump: “Light at the end of the tunnel.” 100 Total U.S. deaths — 204 Total U.S. deaths — 12,841 120 H1N1 cases increase with end of summer

CDC issues guidelines to businesses

CDC issues guidelines to schools and universities 120 Total U.S. deaths — 506 150 FDA announces approval of four different H1N1 vaccines 150 Total U.S. deaths — 1,062 165 States place first orders for H1N1 vaccines 180 Official national vaccination campaign begins 180 Total U.S. deaths — 1,655 184 President Obama issues second national emergency declaration to provide funds for vaccine distribution to states 204 Peak number of H1N1 cases reported 210 Total U.S. deaths — 2,659 229 First day without school closures since Day 13 240 Total U.S. deaths — 3,924 248 100 million doses of vaccine available 360 Total U.S. deaths — 12,469 366 H1N1 epidemic officially ends in United States 483 WHO declares end of global pandemic

What happens after day 100 on the COVID-19 pandemic is still unwritten. But it’s definitely worth noting that in the case of the H1N1 virus, the United States:

Got its test up and running within days of the first case

Distributed supplies to states even before their first cases appeared

Issued national guidance to close schools within two weeks of the first known case

Went all in on a vaccine, starting mass production of multiple vaccines even before trials began, in order to rush the vaccine to states when the second wave emerged in the fall

Provided consistent, federal guidance to states, schools, and businesses throughout the crisis

From “doing nothing” the White House, CDC, and FDA were consistently anticipating the course of the epidemic at every step and rushing production and approvals as well as information

In spite of all this, the bulk of deaths from H1N1 came after the vaccine was widely available. And it took a full year to reach a total that the COVID-19 epidemic has achieved just 43 days after the first identified case of community spread disease in the United States.