by Aaron Schatz

A bit of a close call in their final game isn't enough to drop the Seahawks out of the top spot in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, making Seattle our top team for 2012. Denver and New England had convincing wins in the final week and move a bit closer to Seattle, but still rank two and three. San Francisco is fourth, and Green Bay rounds out the top five.

Each year, we go through and look at how the best and worst teams of the year fit in among all the teams which have DVOA ratings; right now, that goes back to 1991. Perhaps what's most remarkable about this season is that three different teams end up in the all-time DVOA top 12. When I announced this on Twitter, one follower responded that none of these teams really seems like an all-time top ten team. That seems true, and I wonder why that is. Some of it may be that Seattle stuffed so much of its value into three games, but that's not true of Denver or New England.

BEST TOTAL DVOA, 1991-2012 Year Team DVOA 1991 WAS 56.9% 2007 NE 52.9% 2010 NE 44.6% 1996 GB 42.0% 1995 SF 40.0% 2012 SEA 38.3% 2004 PIT 37.6% 2012 DEN 36.6% 2010 PIT 35.4% 1992 DAL 35.1% 2012 NE 34.9% 2004 NE 34.2%

Honestly, if you compare this year's best teams to some of the other great teams of the last 20 years, they look pretty good. The 1992 Cowboys, for example, went 13-3 and outscored opponents by 166 points. That's often considered the best of the three Cowboys teams that won the title. Well, the Broncos just went 13-3 and outscored opponents by 192 points. The Patriots went 12-4, the same as the 1993 Cowboys and 1995 Cowboys, and outscored opponents by 226 points, far more than either of those Cowboys teams.

The 1992 Cowboys lost to Philadelphia 31-7 in Week 5. The 1994 49ers lost to Philadelphia 40-8, coincidentally also in Week 5. The 1996 Packers lost to Dallas 21-6 in Week 12. That's three of the best teams of the 90's, and each one had at least one loss by two touchdowns. But Seattle, Denver, and New England combined for zero losses of more than two touchdowns. In fact, the only double-digit loss by any of those three teams was when New England beat Denver 31-21.

These are legitimately great teams, in part because they are so well-balanced. Seattle ended up ranking in the top four in offense, defense, and special teams. Denver (and San Francisco as well) ranks in the top five in both offense and defense, although the special teams are a little lower. The Patriots are known for being much better on offense than on defense, but even their defense ended up 15th in DVOA this year. Is that partly because they have so many turnovers? Sure, but FO metrics don't exactly overdose on the value of turnovers. We know that they are more variable than yardage totals.

The other remarkable thing about both Seattle and Denver is the improvement. Seattle was 19th in DVOA last year; Denver was 24th even though the Broncos snuck into the playoffs. That means that both Denver and Seattle make the list of the best year-to-year DVOA improvements we've ever measured. Denver is second behind only the 2010 Lions, while the Seahawks are fourth.

Best Year-to-Year DVOA Improvement, 1991-2012 Year Team DVOA Y-1 Rank DVOA Rank Change 2010 DET -51.6% 32 -1.1% 18 50.5% 2012 DEN -11.8% 24 36.6% 2 48.3% 1999 STL -9.9% 20 34.0% 1 43.8% 2012 SEA -1.5% 19 38.3% 1 39.8% 1999 OAK -18.3% 27 21.2% 3 39.5% 2000 NO -40.3% 31 -0.9% 19 39.4% 2004 PIT -1.6% 19 37.6% 1 39.1% 2004 BUF -7.3% 23 31.3% 3 38.7% 2008 CAR -20.6% 26 18.0% 6 38.6% 2007 TB -19.7% 28 17.8% 8 37.6%

Readers know we've been tracking how well the best 2012 teams rank in DVOA for a few weeks now, not only for total DVOA but also for each unit. In the end, the 2012 Patriots don't end up on the list of the top dozen offenses ever. The Bears defense and the Ravens special teams don't end up ranking as highly as we expected a few weeks ago, but they do make the all-time lists:

BEST DEFENSIVE DVOA, 1991-2012 x BEST SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA, 1991-2012 Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 1991 PHI -42.4% x 2002 NO 12.2% 2002 TB -31.8% x 2007 CHI 11.2% 2008 PIT -29.0% x 1994 CLE1 10.1% 2004 BUF -28.5% x 1996 CAR 9.8% 2008 BAL -27.8% x 2009 CLE 9.7% 2012 CHI -26.8% x 1998 DAL 9.2% 2009 NYJ -25.5% x 2012 BAL 9.0% 2000 TEN -25.0% x 2001 PHI 8.9% 2003 BAL -25.0% x 1997 DAL 8.9% 1991 NO -24.5% x 2000 MIA 8.8% 2000 BAL -23.8% x 2005 BUF 8.8% 1995 SF -23.7% x 2004 BUF 8.7%

On the other hand, we've got the Indianapolis Colts, otherwise known as "the worst 11-5 team in NFL history." I don't mean to take anything away from the Colts' big win over Houston yesterday. The Colts get 54.3% DVOA for that game, by far their best single-game DVOA of the season. It was enough to raise them up almost five percentage points, and they went from 28th to 25th. But this is still the worst 11-5 team ever. The Colts have -16.0% DVOA, making them the first team to ever go 11-5 with a DVOA below -10%. The only other teams to go 11-5 with negative DVOA were the 2000 Vikings (-6.3%), the 2004 Falcons (-4.8%), and the 2005 Bears (-0.9%). In fact, even if they had lost to Houston on Sunday, the Colts would be the first team to ever go 10-6 with DVOA below -10%.

Would you prefer simple points scored and allowed to complicated DVOA? OK, well, the Colts were the first 11-5 team ever to be outscored by their opponents, 387-357. The difference between the Colts' regular winning percentage and Pythagorean winning percentage, .238, is the second-highest since the AFL-NFL merger. The only team with a bigger gap was the 1992 Indianapolis Colts, who went 9-7 despite being outscored 302-216. That Colts team had a -27.2% DVOA. They were 1-15 the year before and 4-12 the year after. I have a feeling that the 2013 Colts won't be that bad, because they're going to get improvement from their young quarterback and they'll draft a lot of talent on defense, but their luck will regress even if their Luck does not. The Colts are also unlikely to play the league's easiest schedule again.

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The Colts do not have the worst DVOA of any playoff team ever. Three teams were worse: the 2004 Rams (-27.2%), the 2010 Seahawks (-22.9%), and the 1998 Cardinals (-17.1%). All three of those teams won their first playoff game anyway.

The flip side of the Colts would be the Detroit Lions, who went 4-12 despite finishing 16th in DVOA. The Lions had 6.4 Pythagorean wins, and went 3-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Despite the yardage totals of Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, this year there really weren't any players who came close to any DVOA or DYAR records. We'll look at the best and worst players in a Quick Reads article tomorrow.

All stats pages should now be updated (or, at least, will be in the next few minutes) including snap counts and the FO Premium database. Loser League results will be updated with the winner announced on Wednesday afternoon.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through the entire 2012 regular season, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST WEEK represents rank after Week 16, while LAST YEAR represents rank in 2011.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK LAST

YEAR W-L WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 SEA 38.3% 1 19 11-5 46.6% 1 18.5% 4 -14.1% 4 5.7% 3 2 DEN 36.6% 2 24 13-3 41.4% 2 22.1% 2 -13.8% 5 0.7% 13 3 NE 34.9% 3 3 12-4 37.5% 3 30.8% 1 1.3% 15 5.5% 4 4 SF 29.9% 4 6 11-4-1 24.1% 5 17.0% 5 -14.3% 2 -1.5% 20 5 GB 26.6% 5 1 11-5 24.2% 4 19.5% 3 -7.3% 8 -0.2% 18 6 CHI 20.5% 6 15 10-6 15.7% 8 -10.9% 26 -26.8% 1 4.7% 6 7 NYG 13.5% 9 12 9-7 9.5% 10 12.9% 7 1.4% 16 2.0% 10 8 BAL 9.8% 8 7 10-6 8.3% 11 3.0% 13 2.2% 19 9.0% 1 9 WAS 9.6% 11 21 10-6 18.1% 6 15.3% 6 1.8% 17 -4.0% 27 10 ATL 9.1% 7 8 13-3 2.4% 13 6.1% 12 -2.9% 12 0.1% 16 11 HOU 6.6% 10 5 12-4 -3.0% 19 0.1% 16 -14.2% 3 -7.7% 32 12 CIN 6.1% 13 17 10-6 18.0% 7 -1.8% 17 -3.8% 10 4.1% 7 13 CAR 5.5% 12 20 7-9 10.9% 9 7.1% 10 -3.1% 11 -4.8% 29 14 MIN 2.0% 16 29 10-6 -1.5% 17 0.3% 15 3.1% 21 4.7% 5 15 STL 1.1% 17 32 7-8-1 4.3% 12 -4.7% 21 -9.2% 7 -3.4% 26 16 DET 0.2% 15 11 4-12 1.3% 14 12.3% 8 7.0% 24 -5.1% 30 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK LAST

YEAR W-L WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 DAL -0.4% 14 14 8-8 -0.4% 16 6.1% 11 6.7% 23 0.2% 15 18 PIT -1.0% 18 4 8-8 0.6% 15 -3.8% 19 -2.9% 13 -0.1% 17 19 NO -5.2% 20 2 7-9 -1.8% 18 11.9% 9 14.8% 32 -2.3% 23 20 TB -6.6% 21 30 7-9 -9.1% 23 0.6% 14 3.0% 20 -4.3% 28 21 MIA -7.3% 19 18 7-9 -12.1% 24 -8.4% 22 -0.6% 14 0.4% 14 22 SD -9.1% 22 16 7-9 -7.0% 22 -10.1% 24 2.0% 18 3.0% 8 23 BUF -12.2% 24 23 6-10 -6.9% 21 -4.3% 20 10.6% 27 2.7% 9 24 CLE -13.5% 23 25 5-11 -6.6% 20 -15.1% 27 4.5% 22 6.1% 2 25 IND -16.0% 28 31 11-5 -14.0% 25 -2.9% 18 14.0% 31 0.9% 12 26 ARI -16.3% 26 28 5-11 -23.4% 27 -31.0% 32 -13.5% 6 1.1% 11 27 NYJ -17.9% 25 10 6-10 -18.2% 26 -20.6% 30 -4.2% 9 -1.5% 21 28 PHI -22.7% 27 9 4-12 -27.3% 30 -10.8% 25 9.4% 26 -2.6% 24 29 OAK -27.8% 29 22 4-12 -26.2% 29 -9.6% 23 12.5% 29 -5.8% 31 30 TEN -29.3% 31 13 6-10 -23.6% 28 -20.5% 29 7.4% 25 -1.4% 19 31 JAC -33.0% 30 27 2-14 -29.6% 31 -18.3% 28 11.7% 28 -3.0% 25 32 KC -40.4% 32 26 2-14 -39.8% 32 -25.1% 31 13.2% 30 -2.1% 22

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. 2012 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed. Please note that this is based on the new formula introduced last year which changes the exponent of the Pythagorean formula based on the offensive environment of each team's games.

represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed. Please note that this is based on the new formula introduced last year which changes the exponent of the Pythagorean formula based on the offensive environment of each team's games. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA W-L NON-ADJ

TOT VOA ESTIM.

WINS RANK 2012

SCHED RANK PYTH

WINS RANK VAR. RANK 1 SEA 38.3% 11-5 30.6% 13.0 3 5.1% 4 12.5 3 14.3% 21 2 DEN 36.6% 13-3 38.8% 14.7 1 -6.8% 31 12.5 2 7.7% 4 3 NE 34.9% 12-4 37.6% 13.4 2 -2.9% 21 12.7 1 11.8% 11 4 SF 29.9% 11-4-1 24.0% 12.5 4 6.3% 3 11.4 4 21.7% 31 5 GB 26.6% 11-5 18.8% 11.8 5 2.2% 9 10.5 7 16.3% 27 6 CHI 20.5% 10-6 18.2% 11.0 6 2.8% 8 10.8 6 12.6% 12 7 NYG 13.5% 9-7 12.3% 9.5 8 2.1% 10 10.2 9 33.5% 32 8 BAL 9.8% 10-6 11.6% 9.2 9 -1.0% 16 9.4 11 15.6% 24 9 WAS 9.6% 10-6 13.7% 9.9 7 -0.7% 15 9.2 12 8.5% 5 10 ATL 9.1% 13-3 14.7% 9.1 10 -4.3% 27 11.2 5 13.7% 17 11 HOU 6.6% 12-4 14.7% 8.3 14 -4.0% 26 10.2 8 14.0% 18 12 CIN 6.1% 10-6 12.1% 8.7 13 -5.6% 29 9.9 10 14.0% 19 13 CAR 5.5% 7-9 5.0% 8.8 11 0.8% 13 7.8 18 13.1% 13 14 MIN 2.0% 10-6 -0.3% 8.8 12 4.9% 5 8.8 13 7.6% 3 15 STL 1.1% 7-8-1 -6.3% 8.1 15 9.6% 2 6.6 22 9.9% 8 16 DET 0.2% 4-12 -5.7% 7.6 18 4.1% 6 6.4 23 5.3% 1 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA W-L NON-ADJ

TOT VOA ESTIM.

WINS RANK 2012

SCHED RANK PYTH

WINS RANK VAR. RANK 17 DAL -0.4% 8-8 -4.6% 7.9 16 4.0% 7 7.4 19 6.9% 2 18 PIT -1.0% 8-8 5.5% 7.4 20 -5.2% 28 8.7 14 14.5% 23 19 NO -5.2% 7-9 -3.3% 6.4 23 2.0% 12 8.2 15 14.1% 20 20 TB -6.6% 7-9 -3.6% 7.8 17 -1.2% 17 7.9 17 13.6% 16 21 MIA -7.3% 7-9 -4.9% 7.6 19 -1.9% 19 7.1 21 16.1% 25 22 SD -9.1% 7-9 -4.5% 6.6 21 -6.6% 30 8.0 16 9.3% 7 23 BUF -12.2% 6-10 -13.7% 6.5 22 -3.3% 24 5.7 25 16.5% 28 24 CLE -13.5% 5-11 -8.3% 6.2 25 -2.4% 20 6.1 24 11.5% 10 25 IND -16.0% 11-5 -9.7% 6.2 24 -7.4% 32 7.2 20 11.4% 9 26 ARI -16.3% 5-11 -27.7% 4.8 27 10.7% 1 4.8 27 16.1% 26 27 NYJ -17.9% 6-10 -15.9% 5.6 26 0.1% 14 5.3 26 17.6% 29 28 PHI -22.7% 4-12 -26.6% 4.5 28 2.1% 11 3.9 30 13.4% 14 29 OAK -27.8% 4-12 -23.5% 3.7 29 -3.9% 25 4.1 29 14.4% 22 30 TEN -29.3% 6-10 -28.3% 3.3 30 -3.0% 22 4.6 28 20.2% 30 31 JAC -33.0% 2-14 -29.7% 2.7 31 -3.3% 23 3.3 31 8.8% 6 32 KC -40.4% 2-14 -44.0% 2.3 32 -1.5% 18 2.5 32 13.4% 15

(Note: Although this post is titled "Final DVOA Ratings," unofficial postseason ratings will continue each Monday through the playoffs. Also, play-by-play changes made over the next few weeks could result in some small changes to these final ratings.)