by Wayne Friedman , October 7, 2015

Some 50% of adults under the age of 32 won’t pay for a traditional pay TV subscription service in 10 years. But overall TV consumer cord-cutting will only rise modestly.

A report from Forrester Research says those 18 to 31 will increasingly be dropping or avoiding a pay TV subscription package in the coming years. By 2025, half of those consumers will have either “never” had a TV package (35%) or “cutting” the TV packages they had (15%).

Still, overall cord-cutting has only climbed to 6% of the population currently, says Forrester, and it will stay below a 15% ceiling. Forrester cautions that “rumors of the death of pay TV are greatly exaggerated.” People get tremendous value from those services.

By the end of this year, Forrester says 65% of those 18 to 31 will have a pay TV service, 25% have never have one, and 10% will be cutting a TV service they have or have already done so.

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This compares with older TV consumers this year -- 32+ -- where 80% of this group has a pay TV service, 15% who never have had one; and 5% who will be cutting it or have already done so.

Looking at pay TV packages overall, Forrester says 18% of the U.S. population has never had a traditional pay TV service. Forrester surveyed over 35,000 Americans in April 2015 ages 18+.