Mark Twain popularly wrote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” If 25 games into a 150-match soccer season sounds like too small a sample size to draw sweeping statistical conclusions, well, you’re probably right

But when reframed as the midway point of the North American Soccer League’s 50-game spring season sprint, it’s a good time to tease out some (surprising) trends.

NASL Spring Season Standings (thru 25 games) P Team Pld Pts 1 New York Cosmos 5 11 2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 5 8 3 Fort Lauderdale Strikers 5 7 4 Atlanta Silverbacks 5 7 5 Jacksonville Armada FC 4 6 6 Carolina RailHawks 5 6 7 Indy Eleven 4 6 8 FC Edmonton 4 5 9 Ottawa Fury FC 5 4 10 Minnesota United FC 4 3 11 San Antonio Scorpions 4 1

Fixture picture

Each of the NASL’s 11 teams enjoy one bye week over the course of their 10-game spring season. Thus, six teams have played five games while the other four have played only four.

Beyond the current point tally, an instructive factor in predicting the ultimate spring season outcome is assessing each team’s completed and remaining strength of schedule.

I totaled the cumulative points of each team’s completed and upcoming opponents this NASL spring season, then divided those two numbers by the number of completed and remaining games on that team’s schedule. This yields an average points per opponent (PPO) for the completed and remaining spring season fixtures on each team’s schedule:

Team Average PPO to date Team Average PPO remaining Atlanta Silverbacks 6.8 Minnesota United 7.17 Ottawa Fury 6.8 San Antonio Scorpions 6.67 Fort Lauderdale Strikers 6.6 Jacksonville Armada 6.17 New York Cosmos 6.4 FC Edmonton 6.17 Indy Eleven 6.25 Tampa Bay Rowdies 5.8 Carolina RailHawks 6 Carolina RailHawks 5.6 San Antonio Scorpions 5.75 Indy Eleven 5.5 FC Edmonton 5.5 Ottawa Fury 5.2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 5.4 Fort Lauderdale Strikers 4.8 Jacksonville Armada 5.25 Atlanta Silverbacks 4.6 Minnesota United 4.5 New York Cosmos 4.2

Some results are not surprising: for the instance, it figures that the Cosmos’ average remaining PPO would skew lower since they don’t have to play themselves, just as the Scorpions’ remaining PPO would skew higher since they don’t get the statistical benefit of playing themselves.

Still there are a few notable observations. First, even though the Cosmos, Strikers and Silverbacks have three of the four toughest schedules to date, they currently occupy three of the top four positions in the NASL standings. This combined with the fact that their remaining average PPO are the three lowest in the league bodes well for their spring season stretch runs.

On the other hand, Minnesota United’s next-to-bottom position in the NASL standings comes despite having the lowest average PPO to date by a wide margin. And having the highest remaining PPO isn’t a good harbinger for the Loons.

Ottawa Fury fans can take some heart that their slow start has been partly affected by having the toughest schedule to date (along with Atlanta). Moreover, not only is the Fury’s remaining spring schedule statistically easier, but the team also begins a three-match homestand this weekend.

Jacksonville Armada supporters rightly excited over their team’s solid start should note that it has come with the second-lowest average PPO to date. Conversely, the Armada’s six remaining matches carry the third-highest average PPO in the league.

Common draw

NASL Commissioner Bill Peterson repeatedly describes the league’s compressed spring season schedule as a “sprint.” Since the league instituted its split regular season format in 2013, the prize for winning this springtime race is a berth in the league’s postseason championship rubric du jour.

Part of the stated hope of this spring sprint is encouraging teams to strive for victories—and the three points that come with them—in every game instead of settling for strategic single-point draws.

NASL Spring Season Total Draws % of Draws Total Goals GPG 2015 11 44 63 2.52 2014 4 16 68 2.72 2013 6 24 76 3.04

In 2013, each of the league’s seven teams played a 12-match spring season. Over the first 25 games that spring, there were only six draws and teams tallied a total of 76 goals. However, the two-team Soccer Bowl final comprising only the spring and fall season champions that year left a bitter taste in the mouths of coaches, players and owners throughout the league. Indeed, the two teams with the best overall records over the entire 2013 regular season—the Carolina RailHawks and Tampa Bay Rowdies—couldn’t receive a postseason pass.

The following year, the league adopted the new 4-team postseason playoff format now comprising the spring and fall season champions, plus the two additional teams with the best overall records across the regular season. However, this change was adopted just over a month before opening weekend, and in 2013 each of the 10 NASL clubs played just a 9-game spring schedule. With coaches and players still in a 2013 mindset, there were only four draws over the opening 25 games 2014, although the total goals scored decreased to 68.

However, this year there have been 11 draws over the opening 25 games of the NASL spring season, 44 percent of all matches. The total goals scored is down to 63.

While increased parity is always a usual suspect, the league’s competitive balance is similar to previous seasons. Instead, it appears the league’s coaches have modulated toward a long-range approach, happy to compete for the spring title if possible but also cognizant of the importance of finishing high enough for a berth in the 4-team postseason playoffs. Dropping points in search elusive road wins not only jeopardizes your position in the league standings, but it can also wreck your goal differential, the first tiebreaker for teams tied on points at the end of the regular season.

Quick figures

Top goalscorers: Omar Cummings and Nacho Novo - 3 each

Leading assists: Lance Laing, Georgi Hristov and Walter Restrepo - 3 each

Most points: Lance Laing - 7

Number of goals allowed by New York Cosmos thru five games - 1

Number of goals allowed by San Antonio Scorpions thru four games - 9

Number of goals allowed by Scorpions over 27 games in 2014 - 24

Most fouls (87) and yellow cards (18) - Tampa Bay Rowdies

The Fort Lauderdale Strikers have been shutout twice in three home matches, while scoring five goals in their two road matches.

Only three points separate second-place Tampa Bay and eighth-place FC Edmonton

Taking attendance

NASL Attendance thru May 3, 2015 G Total Average Jacksonville Armada 2 24,311 12,156 Indy Eleven 2 21,048 10,524 Minnesota United 1 9,233 9,233 New York Cosmos 2 17,829 8,915 Ft. Lauderdale Strikers 3 21,869 7,290 Tampa Bay Rowdies 2 12,470 6,235 San Antonio Scorpions 2 12,028 6,014 Atlanta Silverbacks 3 14,063 4,688 Carolina RailHawks 3 13,721 4,574 Ottawa Fury 2 8,116 4,058 FC Edmonton 3 7,829 2,610 NASL TOTAL 25 162,517 6,501 2014 NASL Average Attendance 5,566



*attendance numbers courtesy kenn.com