The Phoenix Rising



Chapter IV: By the Whims of the RNG

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Assessing the situation, 1456

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The Recovery of Kaffa









War on Genoa, September 1458

Mission to Recover Kaffa, 1458War on Genoa, September 1458



Uncrown. The Lord of Emperors awaits you now.



Victory over Genoa, October 1460

The Recovery of Albania



Albanian Situation, April 1461



Albanian Situation, January 1463

Interesting Times



These are the stats dreams are made of, October 1465



Returning to the City, October 1466



Constantinople is Saved, October 1466



Driving the Ottomans from the Western Balkans, February 1468

Trade for Beginners



Unlocking the 6th Trade Idea, August 1468



Trade Overview, August 1468

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Trade for Beginners Who Like Numbers



Constantinople Trade Node, October 1468

I have zero trade power from light ships in the node and 26.4 from my five provinces. Constantinople provides the vast majority of this trade power due to the province being coastal (1.5), marked as an important centre of trade (+5.0), and having the Bosphorus Toll (+10.0). My 10% mercantilism gives a 20% provincial trade power modifier, for a resulting (1.5+5+10)*1.2=19.8 trade power. This is the equivalent of 6.6 light ships (early-game light ships; later ships have more trade power) and dwarfs the contribution from my other four provinces in the node. Always keep an eye out for the estuaries, important centres of trade, and other trade bonuses: they make provinces high-priority targets. The Maximum Trade Power modifier for my trade in this node is 57.5%. This is determined by Trade Efficiency, prestige, stability, overextension/collection modifiers outside capital, and ideas. Based on 1) and 2) the Current Trade Power is calculated taking into account further minor modifiers to trade power (upstream transfers, merchant present, capital). It is 58.0. As can be seen, a hypothetical Maximum Trade Power of 100% would effectively double your trade power, while -50% would halve it. Those 58.0 determine my slice of the total Current Trade Power (CTP) for everybody present in the trade node. I have 32% of the CTP in the node and am amongst those collecting, who together make up 85% of the CTP, with the remaining 15% forwarding. That means that I control 0.32/0.85 = 37.6% Trade Power share of those collecting. (Well, roughly – the numbers shown to us are all subject to rounding, so it is unlikely that I have exactly 32% of the CTP or that exactly 85% is retained.) My income modifier is currently 20% due to my Trade Efficiency. Once I get the final Trade idea, that will give a bonus of +10% to income. As you can see, direct bonuses to Trade Income are very powerful – though not as powerful as direct bonuses to Trade Efficiency, since the latter both directly affect the income modifier and the Maximum Trade Power. The trade node has 4.59d incoming forwarded from other trade nodes and produces 3.11d itself, for a total of 7.7d to be shared out. With 85% retained, that is 6.58. (Again, rounding issues.) Thus we can finally calculate my share of the income in the Constantinople trade node: I earn 37.6% of the 6.58, which is 2.47, and to this is then added my income modifier... and an additional 10% if I have a merchant present. 2.47*(1+0.2+0.1) = 3.21 – and we are done.

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With Greece liberated, I finally have some breathing room. Not only will it now be extraordinarily difficult for the Ottoman AI to pose a serious threat to my realm on its own so long as I maintain naval dominance, I control enough income and manpower that taking losses are not immediately disastrous to my ambitions.Which are, it almost goes without saying, to reunite the lost territory of Roman Empire. As a start.That, however, is more of a long-term proposition. An immediate priority is reducing my war exhaustion.When not at war, war exhaustion declines by a gentle 0.1/month, which decline can be increased by ideas or by being Defender of the Faith. It can also be reduced at any time by direct intervention by the monarch, spending 50 DMP for a reduction by 2.I am not going to spend any of my diplomatic capital on doing that. With a small nearly homogeneous realm engaged in small wars, I can take the high war exhaustion. It may not be comfortable, but it is not a serious threat to the realm.Thus my goal for the next few years should be toengage in continuous war, while at the same time snatching up any targets of opportunity that might present themselves. Liberating the Balkans from the Ottoman grasp would be, but if it looks like it would cost me serious casualties to do so, it is definitely something that can wait.In other words, it is time to slow down and enjoy life while preparing for the next round of serious conquest.A mere two years later and bored of peace, I am offered a mission to recover Kaffa. Since I have chosen the Trade idea group, this sounds like a splendid idea. With Kaffa held by far-off Genoa, whose navy is inferior to mine, it should be a cakewalk.The Habsburg Emperor will apparently do his best to protect Genoa, but as the upstart German lacks a significant fleet and is far away, his 'protection' can be ignored.Scarcely a month into the war, Emperor Ioannes VIII Palaiologos breathes his last and is succeeded by Emperor Konstantinos XI Palaiologos (3/2/2). As expected, the change of Emperor replaces one mediocrity with another. His heir, however, I notice to my great surprise and pleasure is the 8 year old Andronikos (6/3/5).This is one of those situations where I wish I could make a monarch into a military commander, send him out to sea, and sink the ship, tragically forcing an early succession. Well, obviously not doing so before the heir reached his majority, but... Either way, there is no easy way to kill off unwanted monarchs. I will just have to hope for the best, since Konstantinos is an old man. I am sure he will make a splendid military commander, leading my armies from the front.The war to recover Kaffa ends in 1460 with Genoa giving up all rights to its Black Sea possessions. Being utterly unable to defend those possessions, it is much better off not having to worry about them. Really, the AI should thank me for providing such a helpful service. As for me, I am happy to get this foothold in the Crimean trade node. (More about this later.)I have a claim to Kaffa, granted by the conquest mission, but none for Azov. In EU4 claims provide justifications for war as well as a reduction in the AMP cost of making a province a core; The coring cost is based on the tax value of the province (20/taxvalue at this point in the beta), which is then modified for war exhaustion, claims, idea specific effects, nation specific effects, and so on and so forth.In this case Kaffa, though having a higher taxvalue than Azov, is cheaper to make core because of the claim. I immediately pay to start the process of turning them into cores. As all other provincial changes (building, missionaries, culture conversions, recruitment), this is a process that takes a considerable amount of time and will be cancelled if the province in question changes controller. In general this is no big deal, but during heavy rebellions or fierce wars, one should pay special attention to provinces currently being incorporated into the core, because having to pay the pricedue to inattentiveness while an enemy occupied the province... is not nice.Yes, this has happened to me. I was not amused. On the positive side, it sure taught me to pay attention tohostile sieges, even those in territory where I know I can flip the siege quickly should it succeed.Next up on the list of military missions is, apparently, the recovery of Albania. A quick note on missions is that you should not expect to get missions in the same order that I do, since missions are chosen at random between those I am eligible for, and there are so many Byzantine recovery missions – not to mention the generic “recover core” and “save our religious brethren” missions - that anybody playing a Byzantine game successfully is likely to end up with another sequence of missions.To return to the mission on hand, it is the mission to recover the eastern shore of the Adriatic, specifically the provinces of Ragusa, Zeta, Kosovo, and Albania itself. Just like the previous conquest missions, accepting this mission grants me a claim on the provinces involved which spares me the time needed to fabricate claims on them. It also pits me against three separate enemies that need to be beaten in three separate wars, as Zeta and Kosovo are owned by Serbia, Ragusa by Ragusa, and Albania by the Ottoman Empire.There are times I am sorely tempted to ignore the missions and just go on a conquest-spree the way I am used to, and which older readers may recall from previous games, but there is a certain amount of slightly perverted fun to be had in accepting mindless directions from the random number generator selecting from weighted missions, so three separate wars it will have to be.I decide to wait another year before kicking off the wars as that will give me time to reach the next military tech level and stockpile a few administrative points, as there is little point in conquering these provinces without having the AMP to incorporate them as cores on hand. I will attack Ragusa and Serbia with all their allies first and only when those two wars are settled, and when I deem the time is ripe, will I turn on the Ottomans.So it goes; War is declared mid-1462, and by the start of 1463 the important provinces are under siege. Fear of my fleet keeps the various allies away from the eastern shore of the Adriatic and there is nothing to do but wait for the sieges to starve out the defenders.By spring 1464 the last defenders surrender and I make peace annexing Ragusa, stripping Serbia of Zeta and Kosovo, and forcing Serbia to become a Byzantine vassal. I begin to prepare for an Ottoman war but am rudely interrupted by the death of Emperor Konstantinos XI Palaiologos in the summer of 1464; Since Andronikos is underage, a Regency Council (2/4/2) takes over. To while away the time and as I am slowly extending my trading beyond Constantinople, I begin constructing a new navy of light ships to serve me as a trading fleet.Fortunately it is a short regency; Andronikos reaches his majority the next year and is crowned as Emperor Andronikos V Palaiologos. His successor is roughly the same age – presumably a brother – named Demetrios (3/1/3). Here is hoping for a long, long, life for Andronikos and a shorter one for his nominated successor.My plan to invade the Ottoman Empire on my own time and when I felt best able to deal with the 19k western Ottoman army stationed in Edirne is rendered null and void by the Crimean decision to conquer Kaffa, putting me at war with Crimea and the Ottomans in the summer of 1466. I have my entire army, 24k, stationed in Constantinople, but am unsure whether it is capable of defeating the Ottomans' western army even standing on the defensive.Odds are in my favour that it is, but since I immensely dislike taking unnecessary risks, I decide to stack the odds even further in my favour.I thus hastily evacuate the army to Burgas while the Ottoman army moves in to besiege Constantinople, and bide my time in Burgas until my Serbian and Wallachian allies can join their forces to mine.The plains before the city run red with blood as the allied forces under the command of Vlad II Draculesti utterly defeat the invaders under Omur Cerkes. After inconclusive clashes lasting nearly two weeks, the Ottoman morale is broken and the remainder run down by cavalry, dispersing the Ottoman army and ending its existence as a unified force.With the Ottoman western army destroyed, it is time for the mopping up. I settle down to besiege all their remaining western possessions and a year and a half later, the Ottomans give in and hand over Albania, Sofia, and 97d, restoring peace to the Roman Empire. Not only have I now reconquered Albania, I have also driven the Ottomans from the western Balkans.The next mission is... the recovery of Istria. For the love of God, just point me at Anatolia already, please? No, the RNG thinks it is time to reclaim the rest of the eastern Adriatic coast, Istria, Liga, and Dalmatia – belonging at this time to Venice and Hungary. Conquest of this coast will give give me borders with Austria, Hungary, and... I will, of course, comply, because that was how I chose to play this game. But right now. RIGHT NOW. You know what, let me talk about Trade instead and leave the recovery of Istria for another chapter.With the 6 first trade ideas, I get +2 merchants, +10% trade efficiency, +25% trade steering, and +10% global trade power. With the 2 merchants that everybody but the merchant republics gets as a base, that gives me 4 merchants in total. Once I unlock the 7th trade idea, I will gain +10% trade income and another merchant, for a total of 5.But what does all of this mean in practice for the Roman Empire?Now, before I go into any details, I must urge my readers to read the excellent Trade developer diary that covers the basics.Done that? I knew it, you read it already and know it by heart. So let me jump into a few of the details that were not mentioned in that developer diary, after showing you an overview of the current trade situation:That little green pie-slice at the top next to the 4.55d? That is the indication that trade currently makes up 25% of my monthly income – anice outcome of investing in the Trade idea group. It varies from month to month as merchants move around to serve their masters' bidding, but it is generally in the 25-30% range now.Constantinople is a major trade node, as it has Crimea, Persia, Basra, and Alexandria as incoming nodes and only Ragusa as outgoing. Ragusa has incoming from Alexandria and Constantinople and outgoing to Vienna, Venice, and Genoa. Venice is one of two end-nodes (the other is Antwerp) and only has incoming, namely Alexandria, Ragusa, and Vienna.Now, one major issue is that a large part of Europe that is not located on the western coast wants Constantinople's trade. Everybody with capitals in the Frankfurt, Vienna, Genoa, or Ragusan trade nodes are right in the path from trade diverted from Constantinople. Kiev, that also feeds Krakow and ultimately Frankfurt, lives on eating Crimean trade. And, of course, Ragusa and Genoa directly feed on trade from Alexandria and can send it on to the rest of Europe. What I am saying is that unless I go on an embargo spree (which would be a really bad idea), I will have dozens of competitors in Constantinople and Alexandria nibbling away at the trade by each providing a small trade power contribution, that in aggregate is significant. As I am not playing a trade-focused game, I will just have to live with it. For now.As can be seen I have assigned my merchants to collect in Constantinople and Ragusa, while both Crimea and Alexandria have a merchant assigned to transfer trade forwards to Constantinople (notice the small red checkmarks at the Ragusa and Alexandria nodes, that are used to select the direction of trade forwarding). These are all nodes in which I have some power due to territory. I can use my fleet of light ships to gain trade power in more distant nodes – though not more distant than my trade range allows – but with my small fleet and short trade range that is not a sensible option at the moment.I do not need to have a merchant in my capital to collect trade, as the capital always collects trade, but having a merchant present there provides a bonus to income and currently I have nothing better to use him for. Once I get my 5th merchant I will place him in Venice and use my trading fleet to patrol Venice, and it will be a tough choice whether to set my merchant in Ragusa to collect or to forward to Venice, but that is for the future. Currently my light ships are unassigned to trade as I have been using them in the war.Now, why would I want to transfer trade forwards from Crimea and Alexandria rather than collecting at every node? There are two answers to that. The first is that trade that is forwarded increases in value. Alexandria currently loses 3.01 of its total 7.70 value in transfers, but the money that arrives in the three nodes it feeds is 1.46+0.51+1.71 = 3.68. The second is that you receive a penalty when collecting in trade nodes located that do not include your capital. (The third of the two answers is that I have a very respectable trade steering due to my Trade idea that gives +25% and my modestly good naval tradition, so it would be a crying shame not to take advantage of the fact that my merchants are rather good at steering trade, would it not?)Thus it is generally to your advantage to forward trade so long as it ends up in a node where you are collecting and control a significant share of the trade power. The key word here isTrade power in itself means little – the money in a trade node is divided (whether for collecting or forwarding) by the share of your current trade power out the total trade power in the trade node, and that money is then affected by national modifiers. This is even to your advantage if you are forwarding to a trade node in which you only control a small share, so long as the share is not considerably smaller than the share in the node you are transferring from. In the case of my Empire, it means that not only am I transferring trade forwards from Alexandria to Constantinople, where I dominate trade, so are several other countries that only have a small presence in Constantinople because they still earn more that way than if they attempted to collect in Alexandria. (Of course, many of those then forward the trade away from Constantinople, but you cannot have everything).It follows that sending a trading fleet to a node that has little total trade power may allow you to dominate trade in that node, while sending the same fleet to a well-trafficked node may only increase your share by a small amount. At the start of the game most provinces contribute only a tiny amount of trade power and trade value to their associated node, but as buildings of all sorts are constructed the trade power and value increases as do the value of goods. While even a small fleet of light ships is enough to gain significant influence in European trade nodes in the early game, once provinces start gaining significant development in the 16th century much larger fleets will be needed to achieve the same, as the provinces provide significantly more trade power.Of course, by that time themoney is in dominating distant trade – either by steering it directly to your capital trade node (for those so fortunately positioned) or by collecting it on the way using a large trade fleet to prevent any of it from being syphoned off by competitors.A final option to collecting money or forwarding (transferring downstream) is sending power back (transferring upstream). As an example, my merchant in Ragusa could be told to transfer power instead of collecting. As Ragusa is downstream of Constantinople, where I am collecting, he would transfer a percentage of his power upstream to be added to Constantinople's. This is the default behaviour for trade nodes in which you have power but do not have a merchant, and it is the least useful thing you can assign a merchant to apart from leaving him unassigned in my experience.Let me end these few comments on trade by showing you how Constantinople's trade income follows from these factors. I am using a composite of several screenshots to get all the tooltips on one page. (The screenshot is from the month of October so the income differs slightly from that shown above)To understand how the 3.21d is reached, follow these steps.This hopefully also answers the question of whether to assign a merchant to your capital: When you are only able to exert trade power in a few trade nodes, which is the case for most countries in the early game, you are almost always better off having a merchant stationed collecting in your capital, but once you start exerting serious trade power in several nodes and have gained a few levels of Trade Efficiency, you may be better off using him collecting or transferring power in other nodes and leaving your capital to collect on its own without the aid of a merchant.As the reader will hopefully agree with me now, the trade system, though it may seem complex at first what with the introduction of trade streams and several merchant actions, is really fairly simple to understand.With the plentiful tooltips you can go through the handful of calculations that takes trade from the realm of provinces and ships to the bottom line, the shiny ducats in your coffers, but such is not needed for the player that merely wants to be adequate at trading: observing the trade streams in his game, noticing how other nations attempt to direct them, and then doing his own best to direct them to his advantage will, pretty much, work out as expected.It is a very intuitive mini-game, so to speak, especially coming from the old CoT whack-a-mole system, and one that can pretty much be left to run by itself so long as you have set up some sensible trade power forwarding and collection.At any given time, the vast majority of trade power produced in the world comes from provinces, and this is the trade power increased by mercantilism, buttrade power, or trade power applied where you find it important, is provided by ships, and can easily overwhelm trade power from provinces once you have a large enough trading fleet. For nations that go deep into trade, it is quite common for their use of light ship trading fleets to be much more important to their total trade income than the territory they control as the game progresses and they use trading fleets to seize control of the new world trade (big prize if serious colonization has happened due to less competition) or strategic Asian trade nodes.I did not get into the price of individual goods or how much tradeeach province contributes as these are, strictly speaking, not relevant to merchant placement in the trade node system – only the aggregate trade values that make up the local production in each trade node are. If I find the patience for it, I will go through the local province production in a future chapter.