Democrat J.B. Pritzker is a strong favorite to pick up the governorship in Illinois, where incumbent GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner has trailed him by a significant margin for nearly the entire campaign. | AP Photo/Teresa Crawford Elections POLITICO race ratings: Democrats breach GOP statehouse walls Seven states — all currently led by GOP governors — are considered toss-ups.

Democrats are poised to chip away at Republican statehouse dominance in next month’s midterm elections, with wins appearing likely in some of the biggest states in the industrial Midwest.

Three GOP-controlled governorships — Illinois, Michigan and New Mexico — are expected to flip to Democratic hands, according to POLITICO’s latest race ratings .


But aside from those contests, the gubernatorial map remains remarkably fluid deep into the fall campaign. Strategists and operatives in both parties say the races in politically consequential states like Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin — all of them currently led by GOP governors — are still neck-and-neck.

Those states, along with Maine, represent the bulk of the gubernatorial battlegrounds and the difference between a fruitful or disappointing night for both parties on November 6.

According to the ratings, which reflect extensive reporting on the 36 governors’ races this year, Republicans are favored in 17 races, Democrats in 12 and the remaining 7 as toss-up contests.

The places where Republicans — who currently control 33 of the 50 governorships — are best positioned are concentrated in the Mountain States, the South and the Midwest. Democratic chances are strongest in the Northeast and on the West Coast -- with a few notable exceptions.

Republican nominees have unlikely-but-not-impossible chances to pick up a handful of solidly Democratic states, with their best shot likely coming in Oregon. The last time Oregon elected a Republican governor? 1982.

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The likely Democratic pickups

Democrats are strong favorites to pick up governorships in Illinois — where incumbent GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner has trailed Democrat J.B. Pritzker by a significant margin for nearly the entire campaign, a dynamic fueled by Pritzker’s record-shattering $147 million of self-funding — and New Mexico, where GOP Gov. Susana Martinez is term-limited.

In Michigan, where Republicans were hoping to hold the seat of term-limited Gov. Rick Snyder, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has maintained a significant lead over state Attorney General Bill Schuette since both won their August primaries.

Those three races represent Democrats’ best pick-up chances, but the party is also favored to win a number of states it currently holds that were once viewed as up for grabs. Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is a prohibitive favorite to win the open seat in Minnesota, despite the state’s lurch toward Republicans in 2016. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf is a strong favorite to win a second term over his GOP challenger.

Republicans have mounted a charge in the two New England states with Democratic governors, but Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo is leading Republican Allan Fung with three weeks to go, and Democrat Ned Lamont is favored to succeed the unpopular retiring governor of Connecticut, Dan Malloy.

Oregon is still rated as “Lean Democratic,” but it’s perhaps the GOP’s best opportunity to wrest a state away from Democrats. Polls show a close race between Democratic Gov. Kate Brown and Republican challenger Knute Buehler. Ballots are going out to Oregon voters beginning on Wednesday.

The Toss Ups

Seven races — all with Republican governors — remain too close to call, with neither party holding a significant advantage.

The biggest prize is Florida, where Democrat Andrew Gillum surged to a slight lead after his upset victory in a late August primary. Now, he’s tied in the polls with Republican Ron DeSantis, who resigned his congressional seat last month to focus on the campaign. Like the state’s big-ticket Senate race, the eight-figure contest is likely to come down to the wire, with the winning candidate prevailing by only a small margin.

In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams are locked in a close race. With a Libertarian candidate on the ballot, it’s possible neither Kemp nor Abrams will earn a majority of the vote, which would prompt a Dec. 4 runoff.

The race in Nevada is also very close, with Democrat Steve Sisolak and Republican Adam Laxalt running neck-and-neck in the race to replace term-limited GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval.

Three of the Midwestern states that flipped to President Donald Trump in 2016 also feature neck-and-neck governor’s races. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds is in danger of losing her bid for a full term to Democrat Fred Hubbell. In Ohio, the race between Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine is tied, too.

And Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker faces the stiffest challenge since he won the governorship in 2010. Both parties see the matchup between Walker and Democrat Tony Evers as a toss up.

On Republican Turf

Since Republicans hold more than 70 percent of the governorships up for election this year and are facing national headwinds, the GOP is also on defense in a number of reliably red states.

Dragged down by unpopular governors this decade, Republicans have been forced to pour national money into Kansas and Oklahoma. In Kansas, a three-way race could propel lightning-rod Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the GOP nominee, to victory over Democrat Laura Kelly. Independent Greg Orman — who was the de facto Democratic candidate in a failed run for Senate four years ago — could draw enough anti-Kobach votes away from Kelly to allow the Republican to win with a plurality of the vote.

Outgoing Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin may be the least-popular governor in the country — and it’s dogging the campaign of Kevin Stitt, the GOP nominee to replace her. Still, Stitt appears to lead Democrat Drew Edmondson.

Both bright-red states are rated “Lean Republican” — though the Kansas governorship is likely in more jeopardy.

Joining the list of “Lean Republican” states is South Dakota, where state Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton — a former professional rodeo rider who is paralyzed from the waist down — has an internal poll showing him slightly ahead of GOP Rep. Kristi Noem. But a Democrat hasn’t won a gubernatorial election in South Dakota since 1974, and only one of the past five Democratic nominees has even cracked the 40-percent mark there.

Also rated “Lean Republican” are the New England states of New Hampshire and Vermont — states with Republicans serving their first two-year terms. Both held late primaries, and the Democrats in each race have yet to gain significant traction. But the partisan orientation of each state means they both bear watching over the final weeks.

Republicans are in better position in Arizona, where Democrats had talked up their chances of ousting GOP Gov. Doug Ducey earlier in the year but have done little to boost David Garcia since he won the Democratic primary in August. Arizona moves from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican.”

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster’s bid for a first full term is also rated “Likely Republican.” The Republican Governors Association began attacking Democrat James Smith on the airwaves this week, though few see Smith mounting a major threat to McMaster.

Republicans are favored to pick up one governorship, but it isn't a takeaway from Democrats. In Alaska, Gov. Bill Walker, an independent, is trailing Republican Mike Dunleavy. Unlike when Walker won in 2014, Democrats are fielding a candidate this year — former Sen. Mark Begich — and Dunleavy is the favorite to emerge from a three-way contest.

Then there are the two blue states where incumbent GOP governors appear to be on glide paths to reelection. In Massachusetts, polls show Gov. Charlie Baker with more than a 20-point lead over Democrat Jay Gonzalez. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s lead over Democrat Ben Jealous isn’t quite so large, but Hogan still isn’t breaking much of a sweat in Annapolis this fall.