by Aaron Schatz

Remember all that stuff from last week about how Seattle had climbed into the all-time DVOA top five because unlike a number of historically great team, they didn't have a letdown in Week 15? Well, apparently they decided to have a letdown in Week 16 instead. Of course, Seattle was so far ahead of the rest of the league that the loss to Arizona doesn't take the Seahawks out of the No. 1 spot. It does drop them down the list of all-time great teams. Seattle now stands as the No. 8 team in DVOA through 15 games.

One of the notable trends of the past few weeks has been teams that looked like they were having historically good or bad years instead starting to regress towards the mean. For a while, we were running a WORST DVOA EVER WATCH every week. We've also talked about where Denver ranked among the best offenses ever, where Seattle ranked among the best defenses ever, and where Kansas City ranked among the best special teams ever. For the most part, 2013 teams no longer appear on the top of these lists. Right now, no 2013 team finishes in the top ten of any "best" or "worst" list for total DVOA or the three units, with two exceptions. First, as noted in the previous paragraph, Seattle is No. 8 overall at 38.6% DVOA. Second, Washington's special teams are still horrible. It's going to take one heck of a terrible Week 17 for Washington to pass the 2000 Bills as the worst special teams ever. As of right now, Washington ranks No. 2 in worst special teams ever after 15 games, at -12.9% DVOA.

As for Arizona, one of the common questions this weekend was whether the Cardinals will be one of the best teams to ever miss the playoffs, assuming that New Orleans beats Tampa Bay this weekend. The answer according to DVOA is "not even close." Right now, Arizona has 12.2% DVOA. That wouldn't even put the Cardinals on a list of the top 20 teams by DVOA to miss the playoffs since 1989. Arizona has of course been much hotter in recent weeks, and they are up to seventh this year with 18.8% weighted DVOA. Right now, that wouldn't make them one of the top 10 teams by weighted DVOA to miss the playoffs, although a big Week 17 victory against San Francisco could move them into that top 10. Arizona's offense (currently 20th) simply isn't good enough to get them near the best non-playoff teams of the last 25 years, no matter how well the defense is playing.

In particular, the Cardinals can't compare to the team that DVOA ranks as the best team to miss the playoffs in the last 25 years, the 2004 Buffalo Bills. Bills fans, I'm so sorry for drudging this up again. The Bills finished third in the league with 31.3% DVOA. They were 20th in offense, like the Cardinals, but had one of the five best defenses in DVOA history and also led the league in special teams. (This year's Cardinals are just 25th.) The Bills were also hot at the end of the season, so they were even bettter in weighted DVOA -- in fact they led the NFL at the end of 2004, with weighted DVOA of 41.6%. The Bills won six straight games from Week 11 through Week 16 by a combined score of 228-89. They scored at least 33 points in each game, but they did it with great field position and special teams, not with a great year from Drew Bledsoe. Then in the final week of the season, all they needed to get into the playoffs was a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were resting almost all their starters. Instead, Tommy Maddox and a practice squad back named Willie Parker led the Steelers to a 29-24 that sent the Bills home and continued their (still active) streak of missing the postseason.

The Bills' DVOA is a little juiced because they get opponent adjustments for playing 15-1 Pittsburgh when they really played the Steelers backups, but still, this team was really good and the fact that they couldn't pull out that last game is one of the great chokes of recent years. (I don't believe in "chokers" but I do believe in "chokes" and that was quite a choke.)

The second highest DVOA to miss the playoffs belongs to the 1991 San Francisco 49ers. It was the only year between 1983 and 1998 where the 49ers didn't make the postseason, but a six-game winning streak to end the season couldn't overcome a 10-6 recortd where all six losses came by a touchdown or less. Third you'll find the 2002 Miami Dolphins, one of three different AFC East teams that ranked in the top seven in DVOA for 2002. The Dolphins played the hardest schedule of the three, and so despite finishing third in overall DVOA, they ended up losing a three-way tiebreaker to the New York Jets (sixth) which also left out the defending champion Patriots (seventh). Fourth and fifth are two of the Dick Vermeil-era Kansas City teams. Here are the lists of the best teams to miss the playoffs since 1989 by both total and weighted DVOA:

Best DVOA to Miss Playoffs, 1989-2012 Best Weighted DVOA to Miss Playoffs, 1989-2012 YEAR TEAM W-L TOTAL

DVOA RANK THAT

YEAR x YEAR TEAM W-L WEI

DVOA RANK THAT

YEAR 2004 BUF 9-7 31.3% 3 x 2004 BUF 9-7 41.6% 1 1991 SF 10-6 26.0% 2 x 2005 KC 10-6 33.3% 2 2002 MIA 9-7 24.9% 3 x 1991 SF 10-6 31.2% 2 2002 KC 8-8 24.4% 4 x 2002 KC 8-8 26.0% 4 2005 KC 10-6 24.4% 5 x 2000 PIT 9-7 26.0% 4 2005 SD 9-7 23.3% 6 x 2009 CAR 8-8 25.2% 5 2000 PIT 9-7 22.6% 4 x 1993 SD 8-8 25.2% 4 2006 JAC 8-8 22.5% 6 x 2002 MIA 9-7 24.0% 5 1999 OAK 8-8 21.2% 3 x 1999 OAK 8-8 22.8% 2 2004 BAL 9-7 21.1% 8 x 2001 WAS 8-8 22.3% 3 2012 CHI 10-6 20.5% 6 x 2006 JAC 8-8 21.5% 4 1991 PHI 10-6 17.9% 5 x 2008 NE 11-5 21.4% 8

One other note. Although it does not reach the status of one of the top ten games in DVOA history, Philadelphia's Sunday night non-playoff clinching domination of the Chicago Bears had a single-game VOA rating of 121.9%, which means it the strongest single game this season by a hefty margin. Based on current opponent adjustments, only one other game this year had a single-game rating above 100%, when Kansas City had 104.2% DVOA in beating Washington 45-10 in Week 14.

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

This week, we complete a couple of holes in the Football Outsiders roster of elite Madden players, with a left end (the last position we had not done) and a player from the Giants (the last team we had not done).

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 16 are:

Luke Kuechly, MLB, CAR (Limited Edition): 24 combined tackles (9 solo, 15 assists)

24 combined tackles (9 solo, 15 assists) Greg Hardy, LE, CAR: 3 sacks

3 sacks Jason Kelce, C, PHI: Helped lead Eagles running game to 165 yards on 16 carries listed as up the middle or behind the guards

Helped lead Eagles running game to 165 yards on 16 carries listed as up the middle or behind the guards Mathias Kiwanuka, RE, NYG: 2 sacks, 3 QB hits, PD, FF

2 sacks, 3 QB hits, PD, FF Logan Mankins, LT, NE: Held Terrell Suggs to one sack allowed despite playing out of position

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All 2013 stat pages are now updated or will be updated in the next few minutes, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium database.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 16 weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 SEA 38.6% 1 39.5% 1 12-3 9.1% 8 -24.7% 1 4.9% 5 2 DEN 32.7% 2 25.9% 4 12-3 31.7% 1 -2.0% 14 -1.1% 21 3 CAR 26.8% 3 27.5% 2 11-4 10.2% 7 -15.3% 3 1.3% 13 4 NE 18.7% 6 23.7% 5 11-4 16.4% 4 3.4% 19 5.8% 4 5 SF 18.3% 5 23.5% 6 11-4 8.4% 10 -6.1% 10 3.8% 7 6 KC 18.1% 4 18.3% 9 11-4 3.3% 15 -6.6% 9 8.2% 1 7 NO 16.8% 7 13.5% 11 10-5 13.1% 5 -6.1% 11 -2.3% 24 8 PHI 14.8% 11 27.2% 3 9-6 23.4% 2 5.4% 23 -3.3% 26 9 CIN 14.8% 8 18.6% 8 10-5 0.8% 17 -12.5% 5 1.5% 12 10 ARI 12.2% 10 18.8% 7 10-5 -3.3% 20 -17.8% 2 -2.4% 25 11 IND 4.6% 14 -2.8% 18 10-5 5.4% 12 0.7% 17 -0.1% 19 12 CHI 4.5% 9 -0.3% 17 8-7 12.2% 6 9.6% 26 1.9% 11 13 SD 4.3% 12 7.9% 12 8-7 22.1% 3 18.9% 32 1.1% 15 14 STL 3.0% 15 14.5% 10 7-8 -7.8% 23 -4.8% 12 6.0% 3 15 PIT 1.3% 13 6.8% 13 7-8 4.8% 13 4.3% 21 0.8% 16 16 DET 0.9% 16 2.0% 14 7-8 -0.4% 18 -1.3% 15 0.0% 18 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 TB -2.1% 17 -0.2% 16 4-11 -10.7% 24 -10.7% 6 -2.1% 23 18 DAL -2.3% 19 -8.6% 22 8-7 7.9% 11 14.2% 30 4.0% 6 19 MIA -3.0% 18 0.0% 15 8-7 -0.8% 19 0.3% 16 -1.9% 22 20 BUF -3.5% 23 -6.3% 21 6-9 -12.4% 25 -14.6% 4 -5.7% 29 21 GB -3.8% 21 -10.3% 24 7-7-1 8.8% 9 13.0% 29 0.3% 17 22 TEN -6.2% 22 -5.4% 20 6-9 1.5% 16 3.3% 18 -4.4% 27 23 BAL -6.5% 20 -2.9% 19 8-7 -21.7% 31 -8.4% 8 6.8% 2 24 NYJ -10.0% 26 -9.4% 23 7-8 -17.7% 27 -4.6% 13 3.1% 9 25 ATL -10.9% 25 -17.0% 27 4-11 4.2% 14 14.9% 31 -0.3% 20 26 MIN -14.1% 24 -14.0% 26 4-10-1 -5.9% 21 11.8% 27 3.6% 8 27 NYG -17.7% 28 -11.5% 25 6-9 -20.8% 30 -8.6% 7 -5.5% 28 28 CLE -21.4% 27 -23.2% 28 4-11 -13.7% 26 8.9% 25 1.2% 14 29 WAS -25.3% 30 -23.9% 29 3-12 -7.2% 22 5.2% 22 -12.9% 32 30 HOU -29.4% 29 -37.5% 32 2-13 -19.7% 29 3.9% 20 -5.8% 30 31 OAK -33.2% 31 -34.0% 31 4-11 -17.9% 28 8.7% 24 -6.5% 31 32 JAC -39.0% 32 -24.2% 30 4-11 -29.5% 32 11.8% 28 2.3% 10

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).