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Its forecast projects sales will rise to 459,400 in 2020, up two per cent from the 2019 forecast.

The national average price is expected to stabilize in 2019 at around $487,000. In B.C., Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador it forecasts the average home price will retreat, while it will continue to rise in Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and P.E.I.

The association expects the national average price to move up 0.8 per cent to $490,800 in 2020.

CREA said February sales by its members fell 4.4 per cent compared with the same month last year. That is the lowest level for the month of February since 2009 and almost 12 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.

On a month-over-month basis, national home sales in February were down 9.1 per cent compared with January for the lowest level since November 2012. It’s the biggest month-over-month drop since the mortgage stress test came into effect in January 2018.

The new stress test requires borrowers to prove that they can service their uninsured mortgage if lending rates go above a certain threshold.

The national average price for homes sold in February was $468,350, down 5.2 per cent from the same month in 2018. Excluding the Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area, two of the country’s most active and expensive markets, the national average price was just under $371,000.

“Only time will tell whether successive changes to mortgage regulations went too far, since the impact of policy decisions becomes apparent only well after the fact,” said Klump.