Aaaaaaand, the race is on.

In just over a year, European voters will elect a new European Parliament — and in the process help select the next president of the European Commission, the top job in Brussels. The field, for now, is wide open. There are favorites — but nothing close to a shoo-in. After all, at this point in the race the last time around, few would have predicted Jean-Claude Juncker would emerge victorious.

How does it work?

The holder of the EU’s most powerful office is not directly elected. According to the Lisbon Treaty, the bloc’s national leaders meet in the European Council to propose a candidate to Parliament “taking into account” the results of the European election.

How does it really work?

In practice, it’s a bit more complicated. To inject the selection with a jolt of democracy, the Parliament’s introduced what they call the Spitzenkandidat process, named after the long German word for “lead candidate.” Under this system, each party in Parliament puts forward a nominee who campaigns alongside its candidates in the European Parliament election. The contender belonging to the party that gets the most votes is recommended to Parliament for confirmation as Commission president.

How does it really really work?

Who knows? There's nothing legally binding about the Spitzenkandidat process, and many national governments are no fans of it, feeling it robs them of their say. That could put the two institutions on a collision course. The Council has said it will not be bound by the process. The Parliament has insisted it will reject any candidate not chosen through the Spitzenkandidat system.

What makes a good candidate?

“Multilingualism provides a clear advantage, and knowledge of the three working languages of the EU institutions can be considered quasi prerequisites,” according to the Commission’s inhouse think tank, the European Political Strategy Centre. A Commission president need not be a former leader of a country, but “executive experience is necessary given the scope of the tasks at hand. And finally, the credibility and effectiveness of the candidate will be bolstered if they are considered by the European Council as ‘one of their peers.’”

So, who’s it going to be?

If the Spitzenkandidat process is followed to the letter, the candidate of the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) is almost certain to take the top job. But given the next Commission president will be chosen by a new Parliament with a new balance of power, anything is possible. French President Emmanuel Macron is another wild card. He has not yet aligned his La République En Marche party with an existing European political party and could emerge as kingmaker, in particular if the EPP and Socialists fail to win 50 percent of MEP seats. (They currently hold 53 percent.)

And the candidates are?

Glad you asked. There are no formal candidates at this stage (parties will start selecting their candidates at congresses in the fall), but POLITICO has compiled the following list of the most viable contenders

* * *

Michel Barnier

Who? A French politician who’s done everything except lead France. Currently the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Barnier has at different times served as France’s foreign, Europe, environment and agriculture minister. He’s put on the Winter Olympics, been a two-time European commissioner and narrowly lost the EPP nomination for European Commission president to Jean-Claude Juncker in 2014.

Age on election day: 68

Pros: Broad experience at local, national and EU level politics. Man of the moment (if Brexit negotiations succeed). A proven steady hand, able to work with talents as diverse as Margrethe Vestager and Martin Selmayr.

Cons: Not from France’s ruling La République En Marche party, so may struggle to secure support from his government. Doesn’t speak German or represent a new approach to politics.

Will he run? Few in Brussels doubt Barnier is running. His grueling schedule of multiple visits to nearly all European capitals over the past 18 months and his repeated appearances at foreign and security policy events have done nothing to dispel the idea.

Chances of EPP nomination: Low

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: High

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Antonio Tajani

Who? A former journalist and Italian government spokesperson, Tajani is a monarchist (Italy is a republic) whose first European role dates back to his election as MEP in 1994. Currently president of the European Parliament, Tajani served as a commissioner during both terms of the Barroso Commission (2008-2014).

Age on election day: 65

Pros: Leads the institution that confirms the Commission president. An old-school retail politician who knows which palms to press and which egos to stroke.

Cons: Widely perceived to be lacking detailed policy vision. Reputed to have been something less than a hard worker during his two stints in the Commission. While he speaks English, French and Spanish, Tajani is much more comfortable in his native Italian.

Will he run? Tajani has a track record of running for the highest office available to him at a given moment, from mayor of Rome (2001) to Italian prime minister (2018). Opponents have a track record of underestimating Tajani.

Chances of EPP nomination: Moderate

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: High

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Enda Kenny

Who? Kenny has been an Irish MP since the age of 24, serving for 43 consecutive years. He led Ireland from 2011 to 2017, after a string of ministerial posts dating back to 1986.

Pros: Has served as Ireland’s head of government, leading the country through financial crises. Having retired from national government, Kenny (like Jean-Claude Juncker in 2014) would be free to campaign full-time. Ireland has not held a top European political office since Pat Cox led the Parliament from 2002 to 2004.

Cons: Like Barnier, represents an older generation, in marked contrast to the leader of his country.

Age at time of European election: 68

Will he run? Kenny has kept his cards close to his chest.

Chances of EPP nomination: Slim

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: High

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Jyrki Katainen

Who? An alumnus of the EU's Erasmus exchange program (he studied in Leicester, U.K.), Katainen is one of two canny former Finnish prime ministers in the running. Unusually for a European commissioner, Katainen doggedly pursued just a few flagship projects, most notably the European Fund for Strategic Investment (which he pushed through Parliament and national governments in record time in 2015), proving his ability to wade through the red tape of Brussels.

Age at time of European election: 47

Pros: The youngest viable candidate, a former prime minister, effective current European commissioner, and from a Nordic eurozone country (none of which have held the Commission presidency).

Cons: Viewed as reserved, which may be problematic when compared to Finland’s other viable EPP candidate, the charismatic Alexander Stubb. Does not speak German.

Will he run? Katainen has promised to make his decision by summer.

Chances of EPP nomination: Moderate

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: High

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Alexander Stubb

Who? A former Finnish prime minister, he replaced Jyrki Katainen. Now vice president at the European Investment Bank, Stubb is known for playing against type: An outgoing, sporty, glamorous Finn who seems more at home among a cosmopolitan crowd than among his quiet compatriots.

Age at time of European election: 51

Pros: From a eurozone Nordic country, speaks five languages, and has worked for four EU institutions, including as an MEP.

Cons: He’s not the only qualified Finn. POLITICO’s Finnish sources suggest Stubb will not try to elbow past Katainen — his compatriot, party colleague, and fellow marathon sports enthusiast.

Will he run? “If someone was asking if I’ll go back to national politics, the answer is no. But European politics is always an appealing affair to me,” he told POLITICO's EU Confidential podcast in February.

Chances of EPP nomination: Moderate

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: High

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Ursula von der Leyen

Who? A highly-regarded serving German defense minister, von der Leyen looks like a dream candidate on paper.

Age at time of European election: 60

Pros: From a big country (Germany), the biggest party (EPP), is the face of an important new EU initiative (the so-called PESCO common defense policy), speaks English, French and German fluently, was born and raised in Brussels, would be the first female Commission president.

Cons: Has not been a national leader or held another high-level European post, and other national governments will be suspicious of having both a German Commission president and a German Commission secretary-general (Martin Selmayr).

Will she run? Von der Leyen may not want to stand down from frontline national politics and give up her shot at replacing Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany. On the other hand, she is not Merkel’s preferred successor, and Merkel may find having her in Brussels is a useful way to keep her hands off the domestic crown.

Chances of EPP nomination: Slim

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: High

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Dalia Grybauskaitė

Who? President of Lithuania and a former commissioner, Grybauskaitė has gone from Soviet-era Communist Party member to steely center-right leader.

Age at time of European election: 63

Pros: Would be the first Baltic, post-Soviet and female Commission president. A highly-regarded member of the European Council.

Cons: Is required by the Lithuanian constitution to not be a member of a political party, seemingly preventing her from running for the EPP nomination. Would need to be put forward as a compromise candidate after the election in order to secure the post.

Chances of EPP nomination: None, due to internal EPP rules.

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: N/A

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Federica Mogherini

Who? The EU’s chief diplomat, Mogherini could be the youngest candidate from a major party if proposed by the Party of European Socialists. Like Katainen, Mogherini was young enough to have enjoyed the EU's Erasmus student exchange program.

Age at time of European election: 45

Pros: Already holds one of the EU’s four highest offices, from a large founding EU country (Italy).

Cons: Socialists are unlikely to win the European election, and as chief diplomat, Mogherini would either need to step down to run or would be severely limited in her campaigning.

Will she run? There are few viable or visible Socialist contenders. Of the current Socialist European commissioners, Frans Timmermans' star has waned, Maroš Šefčovič's star has only ever flickered, and Pierre Moscovici is from the wrong French party to win his government's support.

Chances of Socialist nomination: Moderate

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: Slim

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Christine Lagarde

Who? A French lawyer by training, Lagarde was brought into the French government in 2005 as a nonpartisan expert outsider to serve as minister for trade. She went on to become a highly-regarded finance minister under President Nicolas Sarkozy and managing director of the International Monetary Fund since 2011. She is consistently ranked as one of the world’s most powerful women.

Age at time of European election: 63

Pros: The ultimate globalist insider, adept at achieving consensus in difficult situations.

Cons: The ultimate globalist insider, found guilty of negligence in her handling of a government payout to a businessman while finance minister. Lagarde is not a member of the EPP and would be better suited as Mario Draghi’s replacement at the European Central Bank.

Will she run? No. Lagarde has a full-time global role and is not a member of any of the parties. Her best shot at the job is as a post-election compromise candidate.

Chances of nomination: None

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: N/A

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Guy Verhofstadt

Who? A former Belgian prime minister, he was a candidate for the Commission presidency in 2004, until he was vetoed by Britain’s Tony Blair. Verhofstadt leads the liberal ALDE group in the European Parliament and serves as the institution’s Brexit coordinator.

Age at time of European election: 66

Pros: Speaks all major European languages, has held high office for more than 30 years at both national and EU level.

Cons: Verhofstadt's Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (ALDE) is only the fourth-biggest party in the European Parliament, and Verhofstadt is a divisive figure even within his own party.

Will he run? Verhofstadt is both ALDE’s greatest strength and weakness. If Macron does not form an alliance with ALDE before the election, his chances of running are high. If the French president weighs in with a preferred candidate or offers Verhofstadt another prize in exchange for dropping out, he may stay out of the race.

Chances of ALDE nomination: High

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: None

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Margrethe Vestager

Who? The most globally visible European commissioner (for competition policy), Vestager has graced a thousand power lists thanks to her bold use of her portfolio's executive powers. She comes from a small Danish left-leaning liberal party and is admired, feared and loathed in equal measure.

Age at time of European election: 51

Pros: Charismatic, accomplished, stylish and down-to-earth. Vestager is the sort of excellent communicator that campaign managers dream of, and speechwriters fear writing for. Having Emmanuel Macron as a fan doesn't hurt.

Cons: Not supported by her own government, not from a eurozone country, and stuck in a party — the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (ALDE) that holds less than 70 of the European Parliament's 751 seats.

Will she run? Vestager is too smart to reveal her plans at this point. Her best chance is as a post-election compromise candidate.

Chances of ALDE or En Marche nomination: High

Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: None

Chances of securing European Parliament support: High

* * *

Matteo Renzi

Who? After a dizzying spell as a social democrat prime minister of Italy, Renzi crashed out of his country's top job before he turned 43, then led the PD to a terrible result in Italy's 2018 election.

Age at time of European election: 44

Pros: Dynamic centrist who refuses to take no for an answer. The sort of socialist Macron could bring into his tent.

Cons: Unfocused hyperactivity rarely leads to success in the EU's complicated bureaucracy.

Will he run? A wildcard candidate. Few expected Renzi to seize control of Italy as quickly or brutally as he did in 2014.

Chances of Socialist or En Marche nomination: Slim

Chances of party coming first in Parliament elections: Slim

Chances of securing European Parliament support: Moderate