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ANALYSIS: Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has compiled just 12 starts in his young career, was not a highly-touted fantasy prospect and has the misfortune of playing for one of the worst teams in baseball. However, through those starts, he has shown the potential to become a high-floor back-end or even middle-of-the-rotation starter for fantasy players. Through eight starts this season, Mahle has posted a respectable 3.86 ERA with an 8.93 K/9 ratio and a 3.05 BB/9 ratio.

Mahle brings to the table a solid fastball (average speed 93.5 MPH) which he relies heavily upon, throwing it 67.5% of the time. He also has a changeup and slider, but only throws those about 31% of the time combined. Mahle will need to learn to mix in his secondary pitches in order to be effective later in his starts. He has averaged under 6 innings pitched per start, largely due to the massive 14.04 ERA he has allowed to lineups the third time he faces them.

So if Mahle has so much to improve on, why should you go pick him up? It is expected that any 23-year-old would have more to learn about pitching in the big leagues but Mahle has still been productive with his raw stuff. Once he develops it further, he could break out for fantasy owners, and with consistent starting pitching hard to come by on the waiver wire, he’s worth the gamble for a roster spot. Mahle is expected to have a two-start week, with a favorable matchup at the Giants (May 15) and a tougher matchup at home against the Cubs (May 20). He is a low-cost investment that could pay a big return for fantasy players this week and for the rest of the season.