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Maxime Bernier believes the Conservative leadership contest has become a two-horse race.

“I think so,” he concedes. “I am looking to Kevin O’Leary as an opponent and waiting to see his platform.”

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At a rally in Ottawa this week, Bernier’s chief organizer, Ontario MP Alex Nuttall, said he believes the campaign will sign up 30,000 new members by the time eligibility to vote in the May election is cut off in just under three weeks.

In an interview, the long, lean member from Quebec’s Beauce region said the campaign has signed up around 10,000 members — a significant number, given the existing membership is under 100,000, but a far cry from the huge influx Nuttall pledged.

What is clear, though, is that the second act in Bernier’s political career has already exceeded expectations — he is signing up new members at a rate matched only by O’Leary; he is neck and neck in most polls with the reality TV star; he has raised more money than anyone else, according to official figures; and, he is in the top three in terms of caucus endorsements, with the backing of six MPs.