Does the Public Want Higher Taxes?

There are two ways to understand this. The first is how Bregman understands it: through polls. When asked if they want higher taxes, Americans generally say ‘yes.’ Others, like Ezra Klein, have made this same remark and used it to argue that American public policy hasn’t tracked public opinion. This populist argument is meretricious.

This is a problematic understanding of the term “public opinion.” If Americans say they want higher taxes, that does not mean they want higher taxes. It may just as well mean they’re misinformed when it comes to current top marginal tax rates, and that they feel as if they want higher taxes, when in fact, they do not.

When the question is asked in a different way — “What do you consider to be the appropriate top income tax rate?” — the answer also changes. That’s the result of this Hill poll. To quote:

Three-quarters of likely voters believe the nation’s top earners should pay lower, not higher, tax rates, according to a new poll for The Hill. The big majority opted for a lower tax bill when asked to choose specific rates; precisely 75 percent said the right level for top earners was 30 percent or below. The current rate for top earners is 35 percent. Only 4 percent thought it was appropriate to take 40 percent, which is approximately the level that President Obama is seeking from January 2013 onward.

And here are the numbers:

— 21 percent of respondents recommend a rate below 20 percent; — 17 percent recommend a rate of 20 percent; — 23 percent recommend a 25 percent rate; — 14 percent recommend a 30 percent rate; — 13 percent recommend a 35 percent rate; — 4 percent recommend a 40 percent rate; — no one recommends a 45 percent rate.

I do not claim that these results mean anything, but pundits certainly do when they claim that Americans want higher taxes. The term “higher” means a different thing to academics and laymen. When an academic like Bregman says they want higher taxes, they seem to mean that they want higher taxes than the existing rates. When a member of the lay public says they want higher taxes, they seem to mean that they want taxes to be what they currently are. Presumably, they don’t actually know the top tax rates, but they feel that top-earners aren’t paying enough. Their definition of “enough” appears to be the same as the current top tax rates.

It is disingenuous to appeal to public opinion in support of higher taxes as an academic whose knowledge of taxes isn’t just a feeling like it is for laymen. When people like Bregman and Klein say that public opinion supports higher taxes, they’re projecting their own beliefs unto the public. Public opinion is often the product of how a question is asked; it does not really exist.

Scott Sumner made this point years ago, but I cannot find the post.