SA 2018 Election Preview

Updated

When Mike Rann led the South Australian Labor Party to office in 2002, it completed a historic clean sweep for Labor. For the first time in the party's history, Labor held government in every state and territory, with Kevin Rudd's federal victory in 2007 adding icing to the cake.

By the time new Labor Premier Jay Weatherill went to the polls in March 2014, the national political map had turned conservative blue. The Federal government, four other mainland states and the Northern Territory had left the Labor fold. On the same day that South Australia went to the polls, Tasmania joined the trend by falling to the Liberal Party.

South Australia resisted the trend and in 2018 the Weatherill government faces re-election with the conservative tide having receded. The Turnbull government was narrowly re-elected in 2016, the NSW Coalition government was re-elected in 2015, but conservative parties have lost every other mainland election since 2014.

A federal shadow looms over the South Australian election again after four years of jousts between Premier Weatherill and Prime Ministers Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.

The two levels of government came to blows before the 2014 election when the Abbott government declined to increase support for the car industry. The Abbott government further aggravated South Australia with attacks on the Australian Submarine Corporation and questions over the future of naval construction in the state.

When Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, he appointed South Australian Christopher Pyne as Minister for Defence Industry to fix haemorrhaging Liberal support in the state. Securing the future of Whyalla's steel industry also attracted special federal attention.

Central to the South Australian election campaign will be power prices and the state's electricity industry. When the state's power grid collapsed on 28 September 2016, it exposed problems with both state and federal energy policy. Sitting at the end of the national electricity grid, and without significant coal deposits, South Australia has increasingly relied on renewable energy in line with federal policy, and on gas power generation made more expensive by national policy. Both levels of government have been blame shifting over responsibility for electricity prices and grid reliability.

The federal government's attacks on the Weatherill government's energy policies have not only been to help Steven Marshall and the state Liberal Party. The South Australian grid problems, plus the closure of several coal fired generators, have pushed the Turnbull government to propose changes to the national electricity market's pricing mechanism. The government has also attacked state and federal Labor policies to increase renewable electricity targets. Attacking the South Australian Labor government on these issues has electoral benefits for the Turnbull government in other states.

The Weatherill government's re-election in 2014 was remarkable. The swing against the government was 1.4% and the Liberal Party won 53.0% of the state-wide two-party vote, but Labor was re-elected. The Labor Party finished one seat short of a majority with 23 seats, the Liberal Party won 22 seats, the balance of power falling to two Independents.

Labor scrambled back to office and secured its position by bringing Independent Geoff Brock and Liberal defector Martin Hamilton-Smith into Cabinet. In December 2014 the Labor Party secured its majority by gaining the seat of Fisher at a by-election.

Four years later, Premier Weatherill faces an even tougher re-election challenge. Can he win a second election as Premier and deliver Labor a fifth term and two decades in government? Beyond the obvious policy issues, three factors are working against the government.

The first is history. In recent decades, only Queensland Labor has managed to win five elections in a row, though shorter terms delivered the Beattie and Bligh governments only 14 years in office compared to SA Labor's current 16 years. After four terms and 16 years both NSW Labor in 2011 and Tasmanian Labor in 2014 failed to win a fifth term in government. All three extended periods of Labor government ended in record defeats.

The second factor is electoral geography. The Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission (EDBC) has conducted a redistribution using the state's unique fairness provision. A repeat of the 2014 election results should deliver a Liberal victory, at least in theory. Labor needs a uniform swing of just over 3% in its favour to win the notional four seats needed for majority government.

Which is where the third factor is intriguing. Nick Xenophon's resignation from the Senate and decision to run for his SA Best Party has the potential to make the EDBC's boundary calculations irrelevant. The 2018 election will see the Labor and Liberal Parties engage in their usual seat by seat warfare in marginal seats, but both will be forced to protect safe seats under threat from SA Best candidates. In the marginal seat of Hartley, both parties will be fighting to defeat Nick Xenophon himself.

At the 2016 federal election, support for the Nick Xenophon Team was strongest in safe Liberal seats, as it had been at previous state and federal elections. Xenophon Team candidate Rebekha Sharkie won the Adelaide Hills based seat of Mayo on Labor preferences. Xenophon candidates were runners-up after preferences in rural Barker and Grey, as well as in the Labor seat of Port Adelaide.

Applying House of Representatives results to the new state boundaries reveals 11 safe Liberal state seats where Xenophon candidates finished ahead of Labor on first preferences. Only Whyalla-based Giles saw a Xenophon candidate lead a third placed Liberal. Of the 11 Liberal seats, eight recorded Liberal first preference votes under 43%, putting them in danger of being lost if Labor directs preferences to SA Best candidates.

The question is, with the focus of the 2018 election being on the record of the Weatherill government, will SA Best candidates have the same appeal to Liberal voters whose main interest may be in ridding the state of a Labor government? Will sixteen years of Labor government increase the appeal of SA Best candidates to disenchanted Labor voters?

Both major parties and the Nick Xenophon Team issued how-to-vote material with open preference recommendations at the 2016 federal election. SA Best has continued the policy at the state election, but the Liberal and Labor Parties are only issuing open how-to-votes in Hartley, the seat contested by Nick Xenophon himself. The Liberal Party has recommended preferences for SA Best ahead of Labor in every other contest.

Labor has trumpeted there are no preference deals, recommending preferences to the Liberal Party in around half of seats and to SA Best in the other half. However, the Liberal recommendations are in seats where Labor candidates are unlikely to be excluded, so Labor preferences will not be counted out. In every Liberal seat (except Hartley) where a Labor candidate might be excluded, Labor has recommended preferences to SA Best candidates.

Electoral Boundaries and South Australian Politics

Electoral boundaries and their political impact have been one of the perennial themes of South Australian politics over many decades.

Between the 1930s and 1960s under Liberal Premier Tom Playford, the state's electoral boundaries grossly under-represented metropolitan Adelaide. As Adelaide grew rapidly in the 1960s, its suburbs extended beyond the high quota Metropolitan zone, allowing Labor to gain office by capturing newly suburban 'country' seats. In the 1970s, the Dunstan Labor government abolished zones and introduced one-vote one-value electoral boundaries.

Enrolments by electorate now approach equality, but the Liberal Party has long argued that equal enrolments could still be unfair. With Liberal support in South Australian concentrated in non-metropolitan areas, the Liberal Party wasted votes in safe seats and has argued that Labor can win state elections with fewer votes.

Which is exactly what happened in 1989 when the Bannon Labor government was re-elected despite polling only 48.1% of the state-wide two-party vote. The Labor Party won 22 seats and formed government with the support of two Labor-aligned independents. The government was forced to change laws to allow for more frequent redistributions and to apply a fairness test in drawing boundaries.

As it has applied since, the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission (EDBC) tries to draw boundaries so that the major party winning the majority of the state-wide two-party preferred vote will also win the majority of the seats in the House of Assembly.

Experience has shown that the fairness provision has two problems. First, boundaries are always drawn based on past voting patterns, not the patterns at the next election. Second, as the Liberal Party keeps discovering, the fairness provision cannot stop an Independent winning a notional Liberal seat and choosing to back a Labor government.

At the first two elections conducted on 'fair' boundaries in 1993 and 1997 elections, the Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party preferred vote and formed government. The four elections since 2002 have produced Labor governments, but only in 2006 did the Labor Party record a majority of the state-wide two-party vote. The 'wrong' party has formed government after three of the last four elections.

In 2002 the Labor Party recorded 49.1% of the two-party preferred vote and finished one seat short of a majority, winning 23 of the 47 seats in the House of Assembly. The Liberal Party won 20 seats, the balance of power left with four conservative crossbenchers. The Labor Party formed government by gaining the support of Peter Lewis, a conservative independent and former Liberal MHA, who held a seat that would otherwise have been won by the Liberal Party.

In 2010 the Labor Party was re-elected to government with 26 members from a minority 48.4% of the two-party preferred vote. The Liberal Party won 18 seats and there were three Independents. The Liberal Party's failure to win resulted from the swing in marginal seats being significantly smaller than the state-wide swing. The EDBC had drawn new boundaries based on 2006 election results such that a uniform swing of 6.9% should have delivered the Liberal Party majority government. The state-wide swing was 8.4% but not uniform, with only two of the seven seats in the EDBC's target range being won by the Liberal Party. The Labor Party's campaign in the marginal seats was more effective than the Liberal Party's.

In its 2012 redistribution report, the EDBC ruled that the 2010 result was due to campaign factors. The EDBC decided that the boundaries drawn in 2008 had been fair based on past voting patterns. The EDBC argued it could not have predicted the changed voting patterns that produced 2010 result, and only minor boundary changes were made for the 2014 election.

When the 2014 election again produced a 'wrong' winner, it set in train the major redistribution that has resulted in Labor needing to increase its vote to win the 2018 election.

The 2014 Election Result.

The table below summarises the result of the 2014 election and the seats that changed party.

2014 South Australian Election

Votes

% Votes

Swing Seats

Won 455,797 44.78 +3.13 22 364,420 35.80 -1.67 23 88,600 8.70 +0.59 .. 63,575 6.25 +0.87 .. 37,955 3.73 -0.97 2 5,934 0.58 +0.45 .. 1,328 0.13 -0.92 .. 247 0.02 -0.13 .. 0 .. -1.35 .. 1,017,856 96.91 47 32,503 3.09 -0.23 1,050,359 91.94 -0.84 1,142,419 478,361 47.0 -1.4 539,495 53.0 +1.4

Seats Changing Party - 2014 South Australian Election

The two cross bench members elected were Geoff Brock in the regional seat of Frome, and former Liberal Bob Such in the southern Adelaide seat of Fisher. Shortly after the election, Such was diagnosed with a brain tumour. It was unclear whether he would ever resume his seat in parliament.

With Labor holding one more seat than the Liberal Party, there would have been a deadlock had Geoff Brock backed a Liberal government. He instead supported the Weatherill government continuing in office and was appointed to cabinet. Shortly after the election, former Liberal Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith defected to the crossbench and was also appointed to cabinet.

The government secured its numbers further in December 2014 with a narrow victory at the Fisher by-election following the death of Bob Such. The Weatherill government now had a majority with 24 seats and was backed by two independents with seats in Cabinet.

Yet the government will not take a majority to the election, the redistribution having turned four Labor seats into notional Liberal seats.

The 2016 Redistribution.

The first use of the fairness provision in 1991 produced a radical re-drawing of the state's boundaries. Subsequent redistributions tinkered with boundaries in a pseudo-scientific effort to even up the electoral pendulum and make the boundaries more responsive to electoral swings.

The Labor victory in 2014 pushed the EDBC to engage in a more radical re-draw. In parts of Adelaide the EDBC has adopt entirely new electorates in place of boundaries that had evolved over two decades.

In summary, four districts have been abolished, four created and three re-named.

The elongated north-south aligned districts of Bright and Mitchell in southern Adelaide have been abolished, replaced by the more rectangular Black and Gibson .

and in southern Adelaide have been abolished, replaced by the more rectangular and . The anti-clockwise rotation of districts through southern Adelaide results in Fisher being abolished and a new seat called Hurtle Vale being created to the south-west.

being abolished and a new seat called being created to the south-west. North of Elizabeth the district of Napier has been abolished and a new seat called King created to the east of Elizabeth.

has been abolished and a new seat called created to the east of Elizabeth. Ashford has been re-named Badcoe, Goyder is now known as Narungga, and Little Para has reverted to its former name Elizabeth.

The summary of the major political implications of the new boundaries are -

The previously Labor held districts of Colton , Elder , Mawson and Newland have become notional Liberal seats on the new boundaries.

, , and have become notional Liberal seats on the new boundaries. The abolished seat of Fisher was won by Independent Bob Such in 2014, but recorded a Liberal majority by the alternate two-party preferred count. The new seat of Hurtle Vale is a notional Labor seat. This does not take into account Labor's victory in Fisher at the December 2014 by-election.

is a notional Labor seat. This does not take into account Labor's victory in Fisher at the December 2014 by-election. The new seat of King is a very marginal Labor seat where the abolished district of Napier had been a safe Labor seat.

is a very marginal Labor seat where the abolished district of Napier had been a safe Labor seat. Lee is significantly weakened for Labor, losing Largs and Semaphore to Port Adelaide while gaining Grange and Seaton from Colton.

is significantly weakened for Labor, losing Largs and Semaphore to Port Adelaide while gaining Grange and Seaton from Colton. Morphett remains a safe Liberal seat but its margin is weakened by the changes that make neighbouring Colton a notional Liberal seat.

Three members elected representing parties in 2014 will contest the 2018 election as Independents. These are Frances Bedford (Florey, ex-Labor), Duncan McFetridge (Morphett, ex-Liberal) and Troy Bell (Mount Gambier, ex-Liberal).

The table below summarises the changes brought about by the redistribution and subsequent resignations.

2016 South Australian Redistribution - Summary of Political Impact Seats Held by Party Labor Liberal Independent Total 23 22 2 47 23 24 .. 47 20 27 .. 47 19 24 4 47

For the Weatherill government to be returned, the Labor Party need to gain four seats on a uniform swing of 3.1%.

The lesson of the last two elections is that the Labor Party has a capacity to defy calculations of the EDBC. The absence of uniform swing along with the Liberal Party's penchant for losing seats to Independents means that Labor's prospects of again winning from behind cannot be dismissed.

That is even more the case following the announcement in September 2017 that Nick Xenophon was resigning from the Senate and would contest the marginal state seat of Hartley leading his SA Best party.

In the last two decades Nick Xenophon has managed to poll between a quarter and a third of the state-wide vote. Were he to repeat that feat on 17 March, the electorate margins and swings quoted based on 2014 election results could become irrelevant.

Jobs and Power - South Australian Politics 2014-2018

Having lost the vote but won the election, Jay Weatherill set about securing his hold on power through 2014.

The defection in May 2014 of former Liberal Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to the crossbench and his appointment by Weatherill to cabinet further demoralised the Liberal Party. Another former leader, Iain Evans, departed at the end of 2014, though his resignation timing failed to convince Speaker Michael Atkinson to hold the Fisher and Davenport by-elections on the same day.

The death of Bob Such caused the Fisher by-election, held in early December 2014. The election was held several days after Defence Minister David Johnston told the Senate he would not trust the Australian Submarine Corporation in Adelaide to build a canoe. The by-election was a disaster for the Liberal Party, Labor's Nat Cook winning a nine vote victory after a 7.3% swing against the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party's Sam Duluk won the Davenport by-election in January 2015, but the result was another 5% swing to Labor.

Conservative governments in Victoria and Queensland were defeated in the same period, inducing the first motion against the leadership of Prime Minister Abbott in February 2015. Federal factors allowed the state Liberal Party to side-step blame for the by-election results.

David Johnston was dumped as Defence Minister at the end of 2014. In February 2015 his replacement Kevin Andrews announced something called a "competitive evaluation process" to assess tenders for new submarines. The announcement was viewed as an attempt to shore up Tony Abbottt's support amongst South Australian federal MPs. When Malcolm Turnbull deposed Abbott as Leader in September 2015, the shift of South Australian MPs led by Christopher Pyne was seen as critical. Pyne was rewarded by being appointed Minister for Defence Science, responsible for the eventual announcement that new submarines would be built in South Australia.

Jobs and the looming closure of the car industry continued to be the main focus of the state government, producing economics plans for northern Adelaide after the closure of GMH. The Premier surprised after the election by appointing a Royal Commission into setting up a nuclear fuel cycle industry. After two years of consultations and reports, the Commission's recommendations were quietly shelved.

The government was dogged by child protection issues involving Families SA and the Department of Education. The Royal Commission into Child Protection Systems eventually recommended the setting up of a separate Department of Child Protection. The proposal was adopted by the government despite it having previously argued for Child Protection to remain part of the Department of Education.

The revelation of patient mistreatment at the Oakden Aged Care facility in north-east Adelaide embarrassed the government and eventually saw Mental Health Minister Leesa Vlahos leave the ministry and announce she would not contest the 2018 election. Oakden was closed by the government but not before the ICAC launched an inquiry into maladministration. The findings were released during the campaign, and while critical of Leesa Vlahos and other ministers, made no findings against them.

In April 2016, Whyalla steel plant operator Arrium was placed in receivership. Coming just before the Federal election, both state and federal governments reacted promptly with a rescue package to ensure the plant would continue to operate under new owners.

The event that defined the Weatherill government's term and could determine the 2018 election took place on 28 September 2016. A severe storm struck the state, bringing down pylons connecting the electricity grid to the north and west of the state. This destabilised the grid, causing windfarms that were still generating power to disconnect, escalating the problem to the point where the interconnector to Victoria tripped, bringing down the entire state's electricity grid.

The blame game between state and federal governments was intense. Several months later, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) identified several causes, including overly sensitive protection mechanisms in some South Australian wind farms, and the lack of synchronous generation capacity in the state on the day of the disaster to keep the grid operating after the connector to Victoria had tripped.

The reactions of the Weatherill government included the building of a giant battery by Tesla's Elon Musk, the construction of a state owned gas generator, and investment in diesel back-up capacity. The software connecting solar and wind farms to the grid was upgraded, and AEMO set about examining ways to better control grids with so much renewable capacity. The Turnbull government also announced a proposal to change the pricing structure of the national grid to provide incentive for traditional power stations to produce power and ensure capacity in the network.

None of these solutions helped deal with South Australia's other electricity problem, high prices.

With the redistribution complete, both sides of politics faced a round of pre-selection disputes in 2017. Labor's Frances Bedford became an Independent after she was defeated by Health Minister Jack Snelling for pre-selection in Florey. Snelling later announced he would not contest the 2018 election, with Bedford then rejecting offers to return as Labor candidate.

On the Liberal side, Morphett MP Duncan McFetridge became an Independent after losing pre-selection. The Liberal Party also lost Mount Gambier MP Troy Bell after he was charged over a misappropriation of funds.

Steven Marshall achieved the unusual feat in recent South Australian political history of lasting a full term without being challenged for the Liberal leadership and will have his second try at becoming Premier in 2018.

After his success with the Nick Xenophon team at the 2016 Federal election, Nick Xenophon backed the formation of Nick Xenophon's SA Best party to contest the state election. His announcement in September that he would resign from the Senate and contest Hartley at the state election shook the state political scene, with SA Best polling between a quarter and a third of the vote since Xenophon announced he was leaving the Senate.

All three parties have taken turns leading in polls since Xenophon's switch back to state politics, and some pollsters have stopped publishing two-party preferred results for state polls. Nick Xenophon's tilt at Hartley induced Labor to nominate former member Grace Portolesi for the seat, making Hartley a microcosm of the three-way contest across the state.

Where the Election will be Decided

(All margins quoted below are based on ABC calculations rather than those produced by the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission.)

Central to the 2018 election will be the battle for Hartley (LIB 3.0%) in Adelaide's inner-east. Nick Xenophon's resignation from the Senate to contest Hartley has turned the electorate into a microcosm of the state's three-way tussle for office. Xenophon has chosen to contest the electorate in which he lives rather than easier prospects such as neighbouring Morialta. The sitting Liberal MP is Vincent Tarzia, elected in 2014 after defeating former Labor member Grace Portolesi, who in 2018 returns as the Labor candidate. In Hartley the bronze medallist will decide gold and silver, the preferences of the third placed candidate determining the result.

Based on Federal figures, SA Best has strong prospects in the state seats overlapped by the Federal seat of Mayo. These seats are Finniss (LIB 13.1%) where Michael Pengilly is retiring, Heysen (LIB 12.2%) where Isobel Redmond is retiring, Kavel (LIB 13.8%) where Mark Goldsworthy is retiring, and Mawson (LIB 4.2%) where Labor MP Leon Bignell is battling to overcome the redistribution. The question is whether SA Best candidates can do as well against their state Liberal opponents as Rebekha Sharkie did against former Liberal MP for Mayo Jamie Briggs.

Two other state seats that are possible SA Best gains based on Federal figures look less likely prospects. Mount Gambier (LIB 21.4%) is complicated by Liberal MP Troy Bell running as an Independent against his former party. Giles (ALP 5.2%) is calculated as a possible SA Best gain on Liberal preferences, but that may reflect strategic voting by Labor voters at the Federal election, knowing that the Xenophon Team's Andrea Broadfoot was the only candidate with a chance of defeating Grey's Liberal MHR Rowan Ramsey.

Other state seats where Federal figures reveal the Liberal vote short of 50% and the Xenophon Team out-polling Labor include Chaffey (LIB 24.0%), Morialta (LIB 12.3%), Hammond (LIB 16.8%), Stuart (LIB 20.1%), Narungga (LIB 14.1%) and Schubert (LIB 12.3%).

State-wide at the 2016 Federal election, the Nick Xenophon team polled 21.3% in the House and 21.7% in the Senate. In the House Labor polled 31.6% and the Liberal Party 35.1%. Realistically, SA Best can win a handful of seats and the balance of power if its state-wide vote can reach 25%. It must poll around 30% to do better than a few victories and lots of second places.

Analysis based on state-wide figures is complicated by SA Best only nominating candidates in 36 of the 47 electorates.

The support for Xenophon candidates looks similar to the pattern of Australian Democrat support at the 1997 state election. The Democrats polled a record 16.5% of the vote to 40.4% for the Liberal party and 35.2% for Labor and finished second in seven seats, six Liberal and one Labor.

Based on past elections, if SA Best wins the balance of power, it would be by taking seats from the Liberal Party. If this happens, the Liberal Party must gain marginal seats from Labor to avoid Labor finishing with the most seats in the House of Assembly.

Complicating the potential balance of power are three members re-contesting as Independents. Former Labor MP Frances Bedford will re-contest Florey (ALP 9.1%) as an Independent after a pre-selection dispute, as will Liberal Duncan McFetridge in Morphett (LIB 7.8%). As mentioned earlier, Troy Bell will also contest Mount Gambier (LIB 21.4%) as an Independent owing to a pending court case.

The Liberal Party must win four seats that the redistribution has turned into notional Liberal seats, each of which currently has a Labor member. Labor will also be keen to win these redistributed seats, each seat won by Labor putting the Weatherill government closer to remaining in office.

The most marginal is Newland (LIB 0.2%) in Adelaide's north-east, represented since 2006 by Labor's Tom Kenyon. Newland was one of the marginal seats that Labor successfully sandbagged against the incoming Liberal tide in 2010 and 2014. The redistribution means the seat has been notionally nudged on to the Liberal side of the electoral pendulum. It won't be an actual Liberal seat unless Kenyon is defeated on 17 March by Liberal candidate Richard Harvey.

Colton (LIB 3.9%) has recorded results a few percentage points above Labor's state-wide vote for more than a decade. It is now a notional Liberal seat after the EDBC moved Liberal voting areas in West Beach and Glenelg North into the electorate. Liberal prospects are further improved with the retirement of Labor's Paul Caica, who has held the seat since 2002. The Liberal candidate is high profile Paralympian Matt Cowdrey, while Labor's new candidate is teacher Angela Vaughan.

Elder (LIB 4.1%) is in Adelaide's inner-southern suburbs and held by Labor's Annabel Digance. Elder was a seat that defied the swing in 2014 when Digance first won the seat after defeating Liberal candidate Carolyn Habib in a campaign where Labor ran a quite personal campaign against Habib. The EDBC overturned Elder's Labor margin by moving solid Liberal voting territory into the electorate from neighbouring Waite. Digance will defend the seat in 2014, with Habib returning as the Liberal candidate. Again, Elder remains a notional Liberal seat unless the party wins it at the 2018 election.

Where the EDBC nudged Newland on to the Liberal side of the electoral pendulum, Mawson (LIB 4.2%) has been shoved about ten percentage points across the political divide. Only once since 1970 has Mawson elected an MP who did not sit on the government benches. It has been held by Tourism and Sports Minister Leon Bignell since 2006. At the last two elections, Bignell upset the calculations of the EDBC by increasing his margin as the state swung against Labor. On its new boundaries, Mawson has moved out of the metropolitan area and onto the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island. Bignell is re-contesting on the new boundaries and the Liberal candidate is Andy Gilfillan, whose father Ian was an Australian Democrat MLC. Federal results and at least one poll have indicated SA best could win the seat and the party's candidate is Hazel Wainwright.

King (ALP 0.1%) is a new seat in Adelaide's outer north-east suburbs around Golden Grove. It has been created by a complete re-alignment of boundaries in northern Adelaide that has seen the safe Labor seat of Napier abolished. The seat has no sitting member and will see Labor's Julie Duncan contest against Liberal Paula Luethen.

Hurtle Vale (ALP 1.3%) is another new seat, this time in Adelaide's outer south and in part a successor to the more Liberal leaning seat of Fisher. Labor candidate Nat Cook won Fisher narrowly at a December 2014 by-election following the death of Independent MP Dr Bob Such. It was a remarkable result, a swing of 7% towards a fourth term government. Her Liberal opponent is Aaron Duff, and one poll indicated SA Best candidate Michael O'Brien is also in the race.

Lee (ALP 1.5%) is based on Semaphore Park, West Lakes and Grange, the seat's Labor margin significantly weakened by the redistribution. Labor MP and Minister for Transport and Infrastructure Stephen Mullighan will be strongly challenged by Liberal local councillor Steven Rypp. How preference flow from SA Best's Andy Legrand could be critical.

Labor's next four marginal seats are Torrens (ALP 2.5%) in Adelaide's inner-north, Gawler based Light (ALP 4.0%) which has defied the trend at the last two elections, Badcoe (ALP 4.1%) in Adelaide's inner south-west, and Wright (ALP 4.2%) in Adelaide's north-east. Labor's sitting MPs are retiring in both Badcoe and Wright.

As well as seats where it is under challenge from Independents and SA Best, the Liberal Party must retain several marginal seats with sitting Liberal MPs.

In Adelaide's southern suburbs, Black (LIB 2.3%) will be contested by Bright MP David Spiers, and Gibson (LIB 3.7%) by Mitchell MP Corey Wingard. Both members defeated sitting Labor MPs at the 2014 election. Labor's candidate for Black is businessman Randall Wilson, with Matthew Carey the Labor candidate for Gibson.

Labor is also mounting an effort in Adelaide (LIB 3.0%) where Labor candidate Jo Chapley is attempting to defeat two term Liberal MP Rachel Sanderson. Labor is also attempting to create mischief by trying to defeat Liberal Leader Steven Marshall in Dunstan (LIB 3.6%). Labor candidate Matt Loader previously contested against Christopher Pyne in Sturt at the 2016 Federal election.

A final seat to watch is Frome (IND 9.4%), held by Independent Geoff Brock since his victory at a 2009 by-election. The seat runs south-east from Port Pirie through the Clare Valley and would normally be a safe Liberal seat. Brock's decision to back Labor and join the Weatherill cabinet after the 2014 election may count against him, but in his favour is the government largess he has been able to leverage for the local area. As in 2014, the Liberal candidate is Kendall Jackspon.

The margins for all seats are based on the results of the 2014 election, which was not contested by Nick Xenophon's SA Best. Some of the quoted margins are meaningless, especially in safe Liberal seats with a high probability of SA Best out-polling Labor and flipping the preference flows.

Even in marginal seats where SA Best finishes third, if the leakage of first preference votes to SA Best is not reflected by preference flows back to the source party, then the calculated two-party preferred margins become unreliable.

The election promises to be a complex three-way contest that will be difficult to call on election night. Even once we know the elected members, it may only be the starting point for negotiating who will form the next government.







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