Brian Lyman | Montgomery Advertiser

Wochit

Alabama is on the edge of losing a congressional seat for the first time in 50 years. State officials are hoping an improved count of people in the state could alleviate population trends running strongly against the state.

Under projected population estimates for 2020, Alabama — with an aging population and a relatively low amount of migration into the state — would be allocated six seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, down from the current seven. An undercount would not only threaten the existence of that seat; it could also affect federal funding for services critical to Alabama, including Medicaid.

“I would tell you that that’s something, trying to get that number up participation rate significantly,” said Kenneth Boswell, the director of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) and chair of Alabama Counts, which will lead efforts to boost the state’s Census response.

Every state is guaranteed under the Constitution to get at least one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Since 1941, Congress has apportioned the remaining 385 seats using a formula that prioritizes each seat based on population. States move in and out of the seat list until the 435th and last congressional seat is handed out.

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“It is a constantly rotating circumstance to create these priority values, to say which state has next priority to get the next seat,” said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, a Virginia-based firm that estimates congressional apportionment. “That’s a constantly rotating circumstance. It lets you go up to 435.”

Using 2017 population estimates, Election Data Services estimated that Alabama would lose a seat after the 2020 Census. The organization estimated that to hold onto its seventh congressional seat, Alabama would need the lottery to go up to 439 slots, or four places beyond the current cut off.

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EDS stresses that these are projections, and that unexpected events can affect population counts.

Alabama’s chief problem is that its population growth is sluggish. The state population increased just two percent between 2010 and 2017, according to U.S. Census estimates. While Alabama's birth rate is roughly equal to the nation's, the number of people moving into the state is lower than average. Alabama's mortality rate was also significantly higher than the nation's between July 2017 and July 2018, with the Census estimating 10.9 deaths per 1,000 in Alabama, the second highest rate of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Some areas, notably Huntsville; some suburban counties and the college counties of Tuscaloosa and Lee, are seeing significant growth. But population is either stable or shrinking in state’s other major urban counties, including Montgomery. Rural counties, especially in the Black Belt, have seen significant losses. Macon County’s population is estimated to have fallen almost 13 percent between 2010 and 2017.

By contrast, Texas’ population increased jumped 14 percent between 2010 and 2018, while Florida's grew 13 percent during that time. Both states are expected to gain congressional seats. Alabama has not lost population, but Brace said if the state's growth lags behind others, it could be vulnerable to the loss of a seat.

“The relationship in terms of population growth is not only how it relates to your population growth in Alabama, but how it compares to other states,” Brace said. “If the other states are growing a little bit more, you guys are on the outs.”

The Census count will also affect Alabama’s access to federal funding, which the state depends on to keep health care and social services going. Census counts play a major role in determining funding for programs like the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), as well as block grants for education. But Michael Li, senior counsel for the Democracy Center at the Brennan Center at New York University, said losing a member of the U.S. House of Representatives could also reduce Alabama’s ability to secure those funds.

“If you lose the congressional seat, you’re losing one person who sits on the committees,” Li said. “You lose some level of seniority, depending on who gets cut. That will have some impact as well.”

Election Data Services

Losing a seat could also mean a demolition derby among Alabama's congressional delegation. The state last lost a congressional seat after the 1970 census, though the death of U.S. Rep. George Andrews in 1971 pre-empted a potential political smash-up. His widow, Elizabeth Andrews, won a special election to finish Andrews’ term the next year – the first woman elected to Congress from Alabama – but chose not to seek a term in her own right.

Alabama Counts is scheduled to present a plan to maximize Census participation by next August. Challenges for census-takers generally involve reaching undercounted populations, including communities of color and lower-income areas. The 2020 Census will also try to do most of its counting online, which could add to the difficulty in reaching rural areas with less access to broadband.

Boswell said he expects the state to pursue a “grass-roots” campaign, with approaches tailored to individual parts of the state. Above all else, Boswell said, the state had to stress that the Census gathers information for strict statistical purposes.

“I know in my former life as a mayor, there was a genuine distrust of the federal government,” he said. “The information that’s being asked has nothing to do with financial connections or personal questions.”

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall has also joined a lawsuit that seeks to exclude undocumented individuals from census counts. If successful, the move could reduce the population increases of states like Texas and Florida and improve Alabama’s chances of holding on to its current congressional seats. But it could also mean Alabama’s estimated 180,000 undocumented residents would not be counted, which could increase the chances of losing a seat.

“It’s playing with fire in some ways,” Li said. “If you have an undercount In Texas, you’re going to have an undercount in Alabama.”

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Li and Brace did say that a concerted state effort to ensure as wide a count as possible could help save Alabama’s congressional seat, in part because it’s a borderline situation. But, Brace said, other states are pushing hard to ramp up their efforts.

“If other states that are conceivably on the bubble put in more effort, you might still be position of losing,” Brace said. “You are competing against other states.”

Boswell, however, cited his own experience as mayor of Enterprise. Before the 2010 U.S. Census, he said, he encouraged a high response rate by emphasizing the potential loss of public funds, as well as the opportunities an accurate count would create for business in the area.

“I did through two ways,” he said. “Fear and greed.”