Majority in six member states hope Britain stays in EU, but less than half think Brexit should allow access to single market

Voters in six European Union countries are overwhelmingly in favour of Britain remaining in the 28-nation bloc – but if it votes to leave, many also feel the UK should be punished by exclusion from the single market.

According to a study of 8,000 voters in Germany, France, Poland, Ireland, Spain and Sweden by the University of Edinburgh and a German thinktank, a clear majority in all six states hope Britain votes to stay in the EU.

But less than half the electorate in Germany, the EU’s largest economy, feel the UK should be allowed to continue benefiting from barrier-free trade in the single market in the event of a Brexit, a view shared by a quarter of those in France and nearly one in three in Spain.

People in Poland were the most sympathetic, with 50% supporting Britain’s continued presence in the single market after a Brexit, a view shared by 41% in Ireland, while those in Sweden are less convinced.

With Britain set to hold a referendum on its EU membership on 23 June, it remains unclear what relationship the country would have with the union were Brexit to prevail.

Support for Britain’s continued membership of the union itself is strongest in Poland, Spain and Ireland, where eight out of ten back Britain to remain. It is lowest in France, where just more than one in two (56%) want the UK to stay in.

The overriding consensus among Europe’s voters is that Britain in the EU is good for both the UK and the EU. That view is most widely held by those in Ireland, for whom the UK is its strongest trading partner. The Irish prime minister, Enda Kenny, recently warned Brexit could pose a risk to peace in Northern Ireland.

In Germany, Poland and Spain, even among those who feel EU membership is negative for Britain, 40% think Britain should vote to stay. The report’s authors said this could be because of a greater commitment towards European solidarity in these countries.

Many of those surveyed wanted to see some of the reforms negotiated last month by David Cameron adapted to their countries: most voters in Ireland and France, for example, favour reducing migrants’ access to benefits. But a majority in every country were opposed to the UK having any kind of special status.

“Our survey shows a willingness to reform the EU, but less so for an individual country to gain exceptional treatment,” said the report’s author, Dr Jan Eichhorn of the University of Edinburgh’s School of Social and Political Science.

The survey reveals that more than half of the electorate in France would also like a referendum on EU membership – the only country among those surveyed where a majority is in favour of holding a vote.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the rightwing Front National party in France, has hinted that she is in favour of a referendum as a means to renegotiate France’s status in the EU.

With just over a year before France holds a presidential election, Le Pen has led several polls in recent months, although she would fall short in all realistic run-off scenarios.

The University of Edinburgh polling suggests that a remain vote leads in all the countries surveyed. However, in France and Sweden it falls short of a majority, with some 20% of voters undecided in both countries.