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Associated Press

Every year, most of the top 10 freshmen are about 10 months away from the NBA before they ever step foot on a college campus. It didn't matter that Skal Labissiere and Harry Giles played poorly in their one season, because there was never going to be a second one.

But there's always at least one that comes back.

Scout's No. 8 recruit, Marques Bolden, is this year's holdover. No. 5 Ivan Rabb and No. 10 Malik Newman stayed for multiple seasons after ranking prominently in the 2015 class. 2014 No. 10 Justin Jackson stayed for three seasons. And the 2013 class had five of the top 10 players (Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Chris Walker, Kasey Hill and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson) stick around beyond their freshman campaigns.

Which high school star will keep that tradition going for another year?

It won't be any of the top four guys. Marvin Bagley III, Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba are each in the conversation for the No. 1 pick in the draft. Duke has already signed 2018 stars Tre Jones (point guard) and Cam Reddish (wing-forward), so it's unlikely No. 5 Wendell Carter Jr. or No. 8 Trevon Duval will return to Durham.

The Harrison twins were the exception to the rule at Kentucky. John Calipari's top-10 recruits almost always bolt after one year, so don't expect No. 10 Kevin Knox to be in Lexington for 2018-19. And who the heck knows if No. 9 Mitchell Robinson is going to play this year, let alone next year?

That leaves No. 6 Jaren Jackson and No. 7 Collin Sexton. It's possible both guys will play two years, but the more likely of the two is Jackson.

For starters, Jackson is entering a time-share situation in the Michigan State frontcourt. The Spartans still have Nick Ward, Gavin Schilling, Ben Carter and Kenny Goins, and Tom Izzo also got a commitment from power forward Xavier Tillman. One doesn't need to be a starter to declare for the NBA draft. Just ask 2005 No. 2 pick Marvin Williams, or, more recently, Zach Collins, Tony Bradley or Devin Booker. But it certainly helps one's profile.

More importantly, each of the top six players in this year's class is at least 6'10". Maybe a lottery team that needs a point guard will grab Sexton as a top-three pick, but even if Jackson puts up National Player of the Year numbers, he'll almost certainly be selected behind Bagley, Porter, Ayton and Bamba. The 2018 class, on the other hand, is devoid of elite power forwards, so he could be the No. 1 pick in 2019 if he plays two years.