DreamHack: Cluj-Napoca - group stage predictions

Disclaimer: Keep in mind that these are merely predictions and should not be used as a guideline for betting on GosuGamers or on any other site. The statements here originate from statistics and previous matches and can thus not be held evidential for the win or loss of a team. The author as well as GosuGamers.net hereby distance themselves from any responsibilities in regards to betting losses.

Before the actual predictions, here are some points that should be discussed.

Some thoughts regarding fnatic

Just two months ago every prediction would have gone in one simple way and in every tournament there was one single team that was constantly named as the favourites. Team Fnatic have wrapped up their third major win at ESL One Cologne, showing a dominant performance as ever and crushing their every enemy. There was no enemy in sight who was considered to actually be strong enough to take on the Swedish powerhouse on a long term.

That was until now.

In a previous feature that discussed some questions leading into PGL Season 1 Finals, we already mentioned that Fnatic looked a bit shaky recently. And in fact they have dropped several big tournaments/finals lately, including PGL S1 against Team SoloMid, GFinity Champion of Champions against Team EnVyUs, and ESEA Dubai Invitational against Virtus.Pro.

A strong uprising is taking place right now

So while Fnatic have struggled, other teams have advanced to unforseen heights in their respective performances.

TSM have seemingly broken their curse of losing in finals, winning the PGL Season 1 Finals, advancing to be the number one team in the GosuGamers team rankings. It looks as if they have finally managed to harmonise and let their individual skill complement their overall power as a team.

Only Team EnVyUs were capable of shutting down the Danish top-team. At DreamHack London they did that in a convincing 2-0 fashion. EnVyUs had a real rush to the top, leaving behind their consistency issues as they acquired both kennyS and apEX and really brought them to shine. After losing out against Fnatic at the finals of ESL One Cologne, they have now beaten them in a stunning best-of-five at GFinity Champion of Champions. They now – of course – are a clear favorite, but similarly to Cloud9, who made a stunning summer-run, there can always come a point at which their performance drops again. There is just no evidence that the French Team can or will hold up their impressive show in the long run.

Another team who has been biting their nails off trying to beat Fnatic is Virtus.Pro. The Polish team has also had a little uprising. Of course they have been at the top section of the CS:GO food chain now for a long time and at the time of their forming, they led the field winning EMS Katowice 2014 instantly, but ever since they have struggled to retain that definitive top position in front of all the competition. Just recently, they beat Fnatic in Dubai quite convincingly, ascertaining the fact that they can really be on point in regards to their performance.

The “fall” of a star

Be honest, after this title you will already have expected a paragraph about the rough time that Ninjas in Pyjamas have had in the past months. At least everybody calls it a rough time.

The reasons for that are some recent failures, most notably the fact they did not even get into the semifinals of ESL One Cologne. At least everybody calls it a failure.

Let us just point out, however, that there is no equal value for getting into a semifinal. This is to say that some have to face tough enemies to get there while others really do not have to struggle at all, as they are grouped with far less challenging teams. And let us be honest, it is no failure nor shame to drop against Virtus.Pro, even less since they were really on point at that event. Of course some losses in league games like ESEA can be held against the Swedish team, but these are barely comparable being online matches that occur once in a while and are most definitely not treated with the same respect and preparation as a real LAN event.

So no star has fallen here yet and every voice in support of NIP is a positive factor that can help the Swedes reclaim their position as a top team.

One factor in particular is very challenging about the group stages and makes it significantly more complicated to give substanciated and objective predictions, namely the best-of-one format. Having a bad day, making simple mistakes, these can totally ruin games and there will be no second map to make the comeback. But nonetheless the matches are predictable to some extent, so let us dive into it…

In the first group we have two clear favourites, but nonetheless two opponents that can potentially cause quite an upset. Fnatic are of course highly favored in their match against Vexed Gaming, as well as Cloud9, who should be able to take out Luminosity. The Elimination match, however, is more interesting. If Vexed can put up the fight they did in the qualifications at Stockholm, where they took out HellRaisers to claim their spot in Cluj, they should be able to succeed. In the end it should not matter, because whoever wins should, theoretically, then be stopped by either Cloud9 or Fnatic. Some might actually disfavor the Swedes in the matchup of the latter two and looking at their past, this might not seem all too wrong. Cloud9 have assumed a form in which they could take out Fnatic, especially with them looking weakened recently this might actually be doable. Nonetheless it is Fnatic and Cloud9 who are expected to move out of that group.

One team of Group B should be highlighted as the team that will most certainly go through unscarred. TSM have maintained a beautiful level of gameplay in the last month and in contrast to other tier 1 teams, they have not actually had a performance drop inbetween. FlipSid3 should be no match for them. The other two teams of that group, however, are not that easy to predict. The recent addition of Joakim ''jkaem'' Myrbostad to Gamers2 has introduced a random factor into the calculations. There are always various issues after a player has been replaced in a team. Nonetheless he could prove to be an excellent asset. Mousesports unfortunately have not been looking strong recently. There are too many sub top-10 teams they have lost against in the recent past. But this does not eliminate the predictions, since FlipSid3 are – or should be – capable of taking either one of the teams down. Nevertheless, if the Germans or the multinational team that is Gamers2 manage to tap into their highest levels of play, they could potentially be rewarded with a place in the playoffs.

Team Liquid were happy to attend a major event, but now it looks as if they have been placed in a rather unfortunate group. The odds are not really in their favor, considering they will have to fight against Virtus.Pro and probably lose. In the elimination match they will be put up against either NIP or Titan, two very strong teams. Though the Ninjas have dropped a little in their performance, they are still capable of going “vintage”. On the other hand there is Titan, a team that almost took out Natus Vincere at the group stages of ESL One Cologne. Their strongest performance can definitely eliminate the top teams, as seen just recently in the ESEA Pro League against Team EnVyUs. It remains fairly questionable who will come out on top of this matchup, but no matter who wins, a rematch is likely to happen. The winner’s match of Group C should go in Virtus.Pro’s favor and Team Liquid will probably not stand a great chance against either of the remaining teams, which means that NIP and Titan will likely be playing again in the decider match. One of them is expected to advance to the playoffs alongside the Poles.

The last group features two strong opponents that – after Cologne – are bound to rematch. Back at the last major, EnVyUs kicked Na’Vi out in just the quarterfinals. As Team EnVyUs are expected to win against Dignitas and Natus Vincere should be able to take out The North American Counter Logic Gaming, they will clash again, but this time with a French team that has evolved significantly since. EnVyUs have really improved and the Ukrainians will have to put up a real show to prevent themselves being forced into the decider matchup. Then again, they will have the chance to advance as both Dignitas and CLG should not be too much of a dangerous enemy. CLG has not been competing against European teams since the qualifier and Dignitas have actually stated that they will not be going into the major with vast expectations, due to their recent roster changes. To sum it up, EnVyUs will have a more or less easy path to the playoffs and Na’Vi could potentially get upset by either CLG or Dignitas, but will probably advance as well.

Some further thoughts on the playoffs

Predicting the playoffs is a tough task to do. It is unknown how the teams will be placed against each other, so there are no definitive matchups to analyse. All that can be brought up are the teams’ individual chances against each other.

Fnatic are still capable of taking the Champions title, meaning they are not entirely out of the favourites role maintaining the potential to beat every single other team. They have done it before, perhaps they will do it again.

Cloud9 will have a tough task ahead of them. Their summer spirit seems to have been long gone, but if they can find that play style again, if they get their entries, if they can hold their sites, they will stand a chance against all other teams.

TSM are clear favourites. Looking at their recent results, they have the potential and tailwind to crush all other teams, except for one. If they were to play against Team EnVyUs in the early finals, they could potentially get knocked out. They have not won a single match against the Frenchmen and it seems that these guys are their ''Achilles heel''.

Virtus.Pro are an interesting team to look at. Currently at fourth place in our team database, they have had their wins against all top teams, but recently more losses overall. Of course these statistics come from online matches and in light of the soon-to-come major, they may not really have focused on these league games. Their tournament performances, however, indicate a possible second major win, bearing in mind their beautiful run at the Dubai Invitational against TSM and fnatic.

The Ninjas have lost a part of their fomer spirit. They have not played much worse or dropped their spot as a tier 1 team, but there are just too many teams that are more likely to win the major. It should, however, not be ruled out that they make a huge comeback. The potential is there, it just needs to be channeled correctly.

After the sad finale in Cologne, the Frenchmen of EnVyUs are more than happy to get another chance. And this time it might work out. Every team has been beaten by EnVyUs so far, although they have lost some matches again recently. You never really know what to expect from their team but, hypothetically, if they play on point, they are the lone favourites for winning the major.

Natus Vincere have overall been playing well in the last month. If you look at their recent match history there are a lot of wins which are actually against tier 2 teams. They are not guaranteed to be able to take out the “big boys”, although they have done before.

That said, there really is no perfect prediction to make for the upcoming major. There has never been a time in which so many teams have been considered potential successors for the title that Fnatic currently hold. A lot of teams have broken through recently and shown that they are capable of doing so much, therefore there isn't any substantial evidence that any legendary team will be claiming the Champions title.