Rona Ambrose Declines To Run For Conservative Leader (With Analysis!)

Rona Ambrose, the polling leader and presumed frontrunner for the leadership of the Conservative Party Of Canada, has declined to run for the leadership. As first reported by LaPresse, Ambrose, has declined to run for the job, which opened up after revelations about the misuse of party funds led to Andrew Scheer resigning, after failing to do so over the October 21st election result. For Ambrose, a Harper-era cabinet minister who led the party on an interim basis after Stephen Harper’s resignation before Scheer won the leadership, the decision in 2017 to step aside from her Calgary-area House of Commons seat signaled her desire to live her private life.



Ambrose was thought to be a frontrunner because of her ability to both win the West as an Albertan and win over more moderate members, and voters, who don’t want another pro-life, anti-gay marriage leader. Questions about Ambrose’s prospects, including from LeanTossup, were around whether her post-Parliament life – her working for the Canadian government in an advisory role on the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations, and her narrow endorsement of the incumbents on that file, would cost her. It’s possible those calculations weighed into her decision not to run.



Amongst Ambrose’s supporters were Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and former Sasky Premier Brad Wall. Ambrose’s last act as a Parliamentarian was to push through a Private Member’s Bill to enforce anti-bias training for members of the judiciary in Canada after stories of judges making sexist remarks at alleged victims of sexual assault made headlines.



For the Comservative Party, Ambrose was the ultimate choice for leader – a westerner who could go to the suburban Ontario seats they need to win back and speak a language on social issues they could vote for. She was the best chance to prove the proposition laid out on this site two weeks ago wrong – that the Tories have lost the next election already. As the author of that piece, I feel much better about my prospects of that piece being right with another Tory not named Rona Ambrose in the leadership. Ambrose’s decision clears the moderate lane for Peter MacKay, but the diverse coalition she could command – social conservatives who are fine with her over her good voting record and moderates who wanted her as the most electable candidate in the general election – will go to both MacKay and Pierre Poilievre, or Skippy as he is non-affectionately called. This throws a huge wrench into the leadership race, and opens the door for a Michelle Rempel candidacy in a similar lane – woman, Albertan, right wing but able to come across as non-threatening on abortion and gay rights – although what evidence we have so far is that Rempel has limited traction.



The Liberals are waking up elated this morning – the best potential Tory candidate just took a pass on the race. Justin Trudeau and co will be amazed at their luck – if anyone was going to be able to take them out in the next election, it was going to be Ambrose. Their chances of reelection just took a marked increase.



All in, Ambrose’s decision has changed the dynamics of Canadian politics – and probably, if not certainly, officially ends a political career. To one of the bright spots of the Tory government, and an honourable and decent member of the House of Commons, we at LeanTossup wish Rona Ambrose well in her continued retirement from politics. How the pieces fall now that she is gone is up in the air – but for now, the Tories just lost their best chance at beating Justin Trudeau and Skippy, Rempel, and MacKay all just gained their best chance to become leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.