Whether it's at the bar, card room, market or café, the most frequent political question is about Texas' favorite underdog.

"Can Beto win?"

It's a fair question, even if the facts aren't all that intriguing.

In his Senate race against incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke is shouldering the hopes of progressives and Democrats across Texas. In a year when the El Paso Democrat has become the top draw in Lone Star politics, packing community centers and auditoriums everywhere, particularly parts of the state that are bright red.

His crusade is backed by stout fundraising. For the first quarter of the year, he raised $6.7 million without the aid of political action committee money. Cruz says that total will be more than what he reports later this month.

O'Rourke is the hottest thing in Texas politics since Wendy Davis, the former state senator who ran for governor in 2014 after a filibuster that stalled an anti-abortion bill made her famous.

Though Republican Greg Abbott overwhelmed Davis by 20 percentage points, Democrats have greater hopes for O'Rourke.

Can he do it?

Sen. Ted Cruz poses for photos with supporters during a campaign event at River Ranch Stockyards in Fort Worth on April 4, 2018. (Smiley N. Pool / Staff Photographer)

Perhaps, but it's a brutal uphill battle that requires flawless campaigning and some luck.

Cruz, who takes every opponent seriously, is in a solid political position.

O'Rourke's biggest challenge is overcoming the structural advantage that Republicans have in statewide elections. The Texas Organizing Project, a progressive group that seeks to make Texas a purple state by 2022, estimates that conservatives can rely on 850,000 more voters than Democrats.

That's a staggering total that can't be made up in time for the November general election, unless a great blue wave pumps up the Democratic Party base and sweeps some Republicans away from Cruz.

O'Rourke knows that base voters alone won't deliver him a victory over Cruz, so he's planning on aggressively campaigning in all 254 Texas counties.

The large crowds he's drawing in places like Fort Worth, Garland, Plano and Farmers Branch give O'Rourke and his fans hope that he's heading in the right direction. But with the exception of the few folks (O'Rourke likes to tell stories about their frustration with the GOP at his rallies), most of the people at his events are Democrats. That's great news as it relates to adding to the base, but it also indicates how tough it is to persuade Texas voters who are hardened in their political views.

O'Rourke's supporters are hoping that an anti-Trump sentiment works in his favor in November. That could happen to some degree, but most Texas Republicans are fans of the controversial president.

"If conservatives show up and vote in November, I will win," Cruz told me last week during a stop in Fort Worth, adding that O'Rourke is too liberal for Texas.

It's still a long time between now and the November elections, and every day, Trump presents Republican candidates with potential hurdles.

The most appealing aspect of O'Rourke is his style and message. He talks to voters, not at them. He stays until the last selfie is taken. And his issues are a combination of local and national themes that impact the kitchen table, not a college course on political theory and ideology.

"Texans ask what we're going to do to make sure every one of us can afford to see a doctor, to ensure our public school classrooms have the resources they need, to get our neighbors back to work in jobs that pay above a living wage, to lead on immigration reform as the defining border state and to ensure our kids are safe in our schools," O'Rourke told me last week. "These aren't liberal or conservative ideas, they're just the ideas and goals of Texans."

O'Rourke's campaign, win or lose, will be of great use for Democrats, both in building the party and delivering voters for down-ballot candidates for Congress and the Texas Legislature.

He's either the Texas Democrats' John the Baptist, or their savior.

These days in politics, anything can happen, even in a rigid, predictable state like Texas.

If the Senate race were listed in a gambling parlor, Cruz would be the heavy favorite.

So if you're betting O'Rourke, make sure you get the appropriate odds.