Iowa Poll: Gap tightens between Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders

Jennifer Jacobs | The Des Moines Register

DES MOINES — The race is really on.

Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have grown in popularity in Iowa, and the gap between them has slimmed to 7 percentage points, 48% to 41%, without Joe Biden in the race, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton, long the presumptive nominee, was 8 points ahead of Sanders in the Iowa Poll in late August. Her support among likely Democratic caucusgoers has climbed 5 points since then.

Upstart underdog Sanders gained vote share, too: He's up 6 points from where he was two months ago. But he has a newly revealed vulnerability: His votes for gun rights rattle Democratic voters here.

The new Iowa Poll was conducted before Biden's long-awaited announcement Wednesday that he isn't running for president a third time. To determine results without the vice president as an option, his first-choice support (he claimed just 12%) was reallocated based on second-choice responses.

With Biden no longer a potential entrant, two contenders are left center stage to battle one on one for the Democratic nomination.

The Iowa Poll affirms what many surmised after last week's debate: Both Clinton and Sanders strengthened their candidacies, Democratic strategist David Axelrod told The Register.

"That may set up a caucus day test between Clinton's superior organization and the manifest enthusiasm of the Sanders supporters," said Axelrod.

All Democrats tested rose in their favorability ratings in the new poll, which follows the Democrats' widely watched first debate, on Oct. 13 in Las Vegas. Still, the poll offers a grim verdict for the lesser-known candidates — former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, former Virginia U.S. Sen. Jim Webb and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee — who failed to capitalize on the opportunity to gain ground.

Each barely registers support in Iowa.

Webb stepped out of the Democratic race Tuesday, saying he may run as an independent.

“The poll is a particularly stinging result for O'Malley, who began the race hoping to be the progressive alternative to Clinton, only to be eclipsed by Sanders,” said Axelrod, who was chief strategist for Barack Obama's presidential campaigns.

The Iowa Poll of 402 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 16-19. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The poll shows there was little room in the race for Biden anyway, Axelrod said. The vice president remains an enormously popular figure with Iowa Democrats. He and Clinton tie in the poll with favorable ratings of 85% each. But Biden had slipped in the horse race and was 30 points behind Clinton, a former U.S. secretary of state who would be the first female president in history.

Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator, was virtually unknown in Iowa until he began campaigning for a revolution of like-minded liberals who think the wealthiest Americans have undue influence over the federal government. He's now viewed favorably by 82% of likely caucusgoers.

Sanders has climbed steadily in every Iowa Poll this year: 5% in January, 15% in May, 24% in June, 35% in August and 41% now.

On one potential concern for Sanders, his self-label as a “democratic socialist,” 81% are not bothered.

However, the new poll shows he's vulnerable to one corrosive criticism.

“Sanders has a big problem, and it’s guns, not socialism,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer.

Sixty percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they feel less supportive of Sanders because he has voted against waiting periods and background checks for gun buyers, positions that were highlighted in the debate. Three-quarters of Clinton voters say his gun stances undermine their support for him, and 46% of his own voters agree they're troubling.

It’s a line of attack that Sanders’ campaign aides have dismissed.

“Listen, he didn’t get a D-minus NRA rating for nothing, all right?” Sanders’ top strategist, Tad Devine, told The Register last week after the debate.

Devine said Sanders has a strong record on safety legislation: He has voted to close the gun show loophole, supported assault weapons bans and pushed for mental health solutions to prevent gun crimes such as mass shootings.

The leading criticisms thrown at Clinton — about her use of a private email server to conduct sensitive government business as the nation’s chief diplomat; about whether she adequately protected the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, which suffered a deadly attack on Sept. 11, 2012; and about her delays or flip-flops on key issues — don’t hurt her with many likely caucusgoers, the poll shows.

Fully 81% said it doesn’t bother them that Clinton hasn’t been forthcoming about her home email server. Just 18% say that makes them less supportive of her.

Clinton’s delays in making policy decisions or policy flip-flops don’t bother 64%; 34% are troubled. Since she last ran for president, she has been called out for doing U-turns on same-sex marriage, the wisdom of her Iraq War vote as a New York U.S. senator in 2002, full citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally, and states’ rights versus universal federal policy on gun control.

She also was months behind her rivals in stating opposition to the free trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and to the Canada-to-Gulf-Coast Keystone oil pipeline.

Asked if the congressional investigations into Benghazi are worth the time and money, 79% of likely Democratic caucusgoers said no.

The poll shows more Democrats are getting excited about the prospect of participating in the first-in-the-nation caucuses, which take place just more than 100 days from now, on Feb. 1.

A majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they will definitely (53%) rather than probably (47%) vote in the caucuses, Selzer noted. That’s an increase of 15 points for the definite voters since August.

In contrast, a majority of Republican caucusgoers are still in the probably category (54% maybe versus 46% definite).

Both Sanders’ and Clinton’s vote shares have climbed because fewer people are uncertain about their first choice for president, Selzer said. In August, 14% were uncommitted or not sure, she said. Now, it’s down to 7%.

Women have been particularly hesitant to commit, but are now taking sides, Selzer said.

“There’s an overall better mood post-debate about Democrats because, finally, this is about issues. It isn’t about emails,” Selzer said. “The debate gave them a chance to feel good about being a Democrat.”