What if?

Worthless words, so often, in sports.

But it’s all we have. And this is the time of year when it doesn’t feel like a waste to invest in possibility. Even in improbability.

The Padres, it appears, are not going to be very good.


They finished 14 games below .500 last year and go forward without their slugging percentage leader and their best reliever. They have an everyday lineup that appears to be both too young and too old and a starting rotation topped by two guys who are in perpetual potential mode and another guy whose arm might fall off at any time.

At least that’s what we think.

The statistical web site FanGraphs predicts the Padres will win 74 games, tied for fifth-fewest in the National League. That is also the over-under mark for Vegas oddsmakers. It will be just 73, says USA Today’s experts.

Spend an hour on the Internet and you won’t find anyone thinking the Padres will finish higher than fourth out of the National League West’s five teams.


It is difficult to mount much of an argument

Projections in baseball are generally as true as in any sport. That is to say, there is no such thing as prophecy – especially when it comes to predicting an up-and-comer.

In preseason predictions by CBS, Yahoo! and Sports Illustrated before the 2015 season, four of 15 experts picked the Toronto Blue Jays to win the American League East, just one picked the Kansas City Royals to win the AL Central, and none of the 15 picked the New York Mets to win the National League East or the Texas Rangers to win the AL West.

Just three of ESPN’s 88 experts picked the Royals, one picked the Mets, and the Worldwide Leader went 0-for-88 on the Rangers.


It happens.

All those teams made significant upgrades at the trade deadline to help themselves. But they got themselves into position to be buyers and make a postseason run because the bulk of their pitching staffs and everyday lineups had either the type of season they were expected to have – or better.

That just doesn’t seem to happen for the Padres.

But what if it did?


What if Jon Jay, who has hit .297 or higher in four of his six seasons, is back to the 2014 form that saw him hit .303 in 468 plate appearances. What if Matt Kemp can approach his career batting average of .292 and his 162-game averages of 27 homers and 94 RBI – and do more of that damage in April and May? What if Wil Myers is healthy and does over 600 plate appearances what he did in 2013 in 373 plate appearances, which would mean something like 20 homers and 85 RBI?

Why can’t Cory Spangenberg, who hit .271 with 21 RBI, 38 runs and nine stolen bases in 345 plate appearances in 2015, take the next step? Same for Yangervis Solarte, who turned a career-high 571 plate appearances into a career-best .270 average, 63 RBI and 14 homers. And who’s to say better management of Derek Norris’ playing time won’t get him back to his 2014 level of .270 with 55 RBI and 10 homers. Or maybe better?

It might be pushing even the liberal bounds of optimism to suggest Melvin Upton will be good for anything like his long-ago peak performances. But what about even four years ago, when he hit .246, scored 78 runs and stole 31 bases? Still wouldn’t be worth the salary, but it would be better than expected.

And the pitching staff, well, it just isn’t that big of a leap to think the top of the starting rotation might actually be pretty good. Sure, it could be mediocre, or worse. But that isn’t the kind of what ifs we’re contemplating here.


Tyson Ross has averaged 32 starts and has a 3.03 ERA in his first two full seasons as a starter. James Shields has thrown at least 200 innings in nine straight seasons. Andrew Cashner has too much stuff to give up believing what he’s shown in spurts can be displayed over a season.

On the back end, is it all that preposterous to believe closer Fernando Rodney is not capable of regaining some control and approaching all-star form? (He’s due. He had 48 saves in both 2012 and ’14.)

FanGraphs projects the Padres with the worst team batting average and second-worst ERA among NL West teams. The site ranks the Padres’ hitters as third-worst in baseball based on wins above replacement (WAR) and their pitchers 14th out of 30.

But what if the Padres can put it all together?