Tony Abbott has conceded defeat in Warringah to independent Zali Steggall, revealing he feared his political career was over months ago but that he "would rather be a loser than a quitter".

Key points: Mr Abbott had held the seat since 1994

Mr Abbott had held the seat since 1994 He and Ms Steggall fought a brutal campaign, which Abbott called 'pretty personal'

He and Ms Steggall fought a brutal campaign, which Abbott called 'pretty personal' For live results in Warringah, click here click here

ABC chief elections analyst Antony Green called the seat for Ms Steggall less than two hours after polls closed, and Mr Abbott made his concession speech just after 8:30pm.

With 78.2 per cent of the ballots counted, Ms Steggall's primary vote was at 44.7 per cent — enough for her to claim a comfortable victory.

Mr Abbott's primary vote had collapsed, and was down more than 12 per cent.

The former PM told supporters at the Manly Sea Eagles Leagues Club he had fears for his political future after the Government lost last year's Wentworth by-election to independent Kerryn Phelps.

Over the Sydney harbour, Wentworth is again on a knife's edge, with the vote considered too close to call.

Mr Abbott, flanked by his wife Margie and sister Christine, conceded climate change had played a big role in his defeat.

"I have to say that once we had the result in the Wentworth by-election six months or so back, I always knew it was going to be tough here in Warringah," Mr Abbott told supporters.

"And I can't say that it doesn't hurt to lose.

"But I decided back then, in October of last year, that if I had to lose, so be it.

"I'd rather be a loser than a quitter."

Mr Abbott also paid tribute to Ms Steggall and wished her well, as Liberal supporters booed loudly.

He thanked his family and supporters and predicted his public life "would go on".

"Warringah is the place I live," he said.

"It's the place I will continue to serve. And I look forward to many, many more years living, working and serving in the greatest part of the greatest city of the greatest country on earth."

'A new beginning'

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume. Watch Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds 6 m Zali Steggall giving her victory speech in Manly ( ABC News )

There were wild celebrations at Ms Steggall's official event in Manly when Green called the result.

The celebrations continued when Ms Steggall appeared on stage, with her supporters, dressed in aqua shirts, chanting "Zali, Zali, Zali".

Ms Steggall said it was a win for "moderates with a heart".

"Warringah we have a new beginning for our environment," she said.

"Warringah has voted for the future.

"This is an opportunity for a new beginning in Australian politics."

She thanked Mr Abbott, who she described as a "dedicated and long-serving local member".

"Nobody can doubt his community spirit, his work ethic and his contribution to the community."

The vote was expected to be tight, however the swing was on early in the vote triggering Green's announcement.

Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos said Mr Abbott had a "certain view of the world".

"He's explained himself to his electorate and his electorate have said: 'we're not necessarily satisfied with your explanation'."

The battle for Warringah

The campaign itself was brutal and controversial.

It all began last year with the Vote Tony Out Instagram page, a social media campaign started by voters and backed by personalities such as surfer Layne Beachley.

Ms Steggall formally announced her candidacy the day after Australia Day, saying her focus was on climate-change action and accusing Mr Abbott of being "set in his ways" and unwilling to change.

Zali Steggall supporters celebrating at an event in Manly. ( AAP: Dylan Coker )

It did not take long for left-wing activist organisation GetUp! to throw its extensive resources behind Ms Steggall in a bid to help oust the former PM.

Ms Steggall repeatedly denied having any formal association with the group.

GetUp! then copped a backlash halfway through the campaign after releasing, and quickly deleting, an advertisement depicting Mr Abbott as an apathetic lifesaver eating an onion.

In response, conservative lobby group Advance Australia deployed Captain GetUp to build awareness of the organisation's "radical left-wing agenda".

Reports suggesting Ms Steggall was being backed by an "army" of disaffected Liberal voters were dismissed by Mr Abbott, who labelled the campaign against him as being "all pretty personal".

It then got very nasty.

Before a televised debate, Mr Abbott was flanked by police as climate change protesters and supporters of Ms Steggall battled to display their signs amid a throng of his own backers.

Several caricatured heads were daubed with expletives too offensive to show. ( Supplied )

Obscene posters of Mr Abbott's face adorned with expletives were put up across his electorate, sparking a police investigation.

On the other side, a mechanic in the electorate had his "Vote Tony Out" banner repeatedly vandalised.

Mr Abbott was this week criticised for his tribute to the late Bob Hawke, who he described as having a "Labor heart but a Liberal head".

The night before the election, a Liberal Party volunteer was attacked with a corkscrew after posters supporting Mr Abbott were ripped down.