State elections in Saxony and Brandenburg are the party’s first test in former East Germany – and it is on course to make big gains

Crucial elections in two eastern states of Germany could be about to change the political direction of the country, with polls showing the potential of the far right to emerge as the strongest force.

Five million Germans are eligible to vote on Sunday in Saxony and Brandenburg in election battles that could have a resounding impact on the federal government in Berlin and have been fuelled by debates on the success and failures of German reunification, with the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall coming this autumn.

The anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) faces its first real electoral test in the region. At the last state election, five years ago, the party was just a year old and lacking clout.

Today, two years after entering the national parliament for the first time, buoyed by its opposition to the arrival in Germany of almost 1 million refugees during the crisis of 2015, it has made sizeable gains. According to final polls, the AfD is expected to receive around 24.5% support in Saxony, and 21% in Brandenburg, the state that encircles the capital, Berlin.

The parties that have uninterruptedly dominated the region’s politics since reunification in 1990 – the Christian Democrats (CDU) in Saxony and the Social Democrats (SPD) in Brandenburg – are braced for heavy losses. The latest polls show the SPD on around 22% in Brandenburg and the CDU on 32% in Saxony.

The Greens, already bolstered by a nationwide rise in the polls, are being touted as the party that could tip the balance of power. They are enjoying 14.5% support in Brandenburg and 11% in Saxony.

All parties have ruled out going into coalition with the AfD, meaning that tense negotiations almost certainly lie ahead.

Analysts agree that if the AfD tops the polls it will represent the biggest political earthquake for Germany since the end of the cold war, marking the first time a rightwing populist force has taken control in postwar Germany.

The size of the AfD’s gains after a campaign focused on appealing to – and amplifying – a collective feeling of abandonment have been most keenly felt in Saxony. There, it is expected to take half or a third of seats from the CDU, which in 2014 secured 59 out of 60 constituencies.

Its election slogan “Vollende die Wende”, or “Complete the transition” – stealing the phrase used in 1989 to describe the change from communism to liberal democracy – is an invitation to topple the status quo just as protesters brought about the East German revolution.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Former paratrooper Andreas Kalbitz, the leading Alternative für Deutschland Brandenburg candidate. Photograph: Michele Tantussi/Reuters

“The AfD is not the cause of the upset we’re seeing, neither is it dividing society,” said Andreas Kalbitz, the AfD’s leading candidate in Brandenburg, fresh from an election rally. “The AfD is the consequence of the failure of others.”

Born in Munich, the former paratrooper settled in Brandenburg with his British wife and children more than a decade ago. His contacts with far-right sympathisers have made repeated headlines in Germany in recent months as he positions himself to oust Dietmar Woidke, who has been Brandenburg’s state premier since 2013. Those headlines continued last week when he admitted he had attended a neo-Nazi rally in 2007 in the Greek capital, Athens.

Kalbitz insists it is largely western Germans’ lack of empathy towards easterners, and the widespread perception that they plundered the east of its wealth in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of communism, that has fuelled much of the resentment among Brandenburgers.

“It has been forgotten in the west,” he said. “But people in the east have not forgotten how people came with their fast cars and closed down the businesses, so as to clear the field of competition for western businesses.”

Matthias Platzeck, who was Brandenburg’s premier until 2013, said: “Democracy here is on the precipice of a crisis. People have the overwhelming feeling that, following both the finance and the refugee crises, the state has lost control.

A succession of governments here has emphasised nice facades and flat roads, but a lot of people feel angry and lonely. They don't feel useful Günter Koll, Potsdam resident

“The AfD is exploiting this latent sense of insecurity and has the same explanation for everything: if your bus is late or a train is cancelled, some Iraqi or other must be to blame.”

The campaigns – the state of Thuringia follows on 27 October – have thrown the reunification project into sharp relief. Often presented as an unparalleled success story, which has involved an injection of more than 2 trillion euros to fund welfare benefits and infrastructure, the AfD has sought to present it as colonial-style exploitation and failure, pointing to the exodus of 1.9 million people from the former German Democratic Republic since 1990.

A recent study by the polling institute Allensbach found that 69% of Germans believed their chances for a decent life were better in “west Germany”. Only 2% said the east. Almost three-quarters of easterners said differences in lifestyle between the former east and the west were “big” to “very big”, while only 43% of westerners thought so. Analysts say this is just one indicator of a massive gulf of understanding between the two groups.

Taking a stroll through the centre of Potsdam, the prosperous capital of Brandenburg famous for its historic buildings, Günter Koll, a retired engineer, said he believed the false priorities of a string of governments were to blame for the disenchantment.

“A succession of governments here has put the emphasis on nice facades and flat roads,” the 71-year-old Potsdam native said, pointing at reconstructed baroque buildings. “That’s all well and good, but I think often they’ve forgotten the actual people. A lot of people are angry and lonely. They don’t feel useful.”

He insisted he would not be voting for the AfD, but has neighbours who would. “We’re generally less afraid of political change, as we’ve already experienced enough of it in our lives. It makes it easier for people to switch to the AfD.”