Olivia Chow, John Tory and Rob Ford are locked in a tight early race for Toronto’s mayoralty, though Tory and Chow have much more room than Ford to improve, according to the first opinion poll since Tory announced his candidacy.

Monday’s Forum Research poll of 1,310 residents, conducted on the day Tory and Karen Stintz registered to run, gave Tory 39 per cent support, Ford 33 per cent, Stintz 15 per cent, and David Soknacki 5 per cent in a race among the major declared candidates.

Chow, the NDP MP, has not formally started campaigning; she is almost certain to register by the end of March. In a hypothetical race with Chow included, she and Ford tied at 31 per cent; Tory, the former Progressive Conservative leader, had 27 per cent; Stintz, a city councillor, had 6 per cent; Soknacki, a former councillor, had 2 per cent.

In a three-way race without Stintz and Soknacki, there was a statistical tie: Tory had 33 per cent, Ford and Chow 32 per cent.

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The Forum poll suggests Chow and especially Tory have far higher ceilings than Ford does. A full 50 per cent of respondents said they would never vote for Ford, compared with 21 per cent who said they would never vote for Chow and a mere 6 per cent who said they would never vote for Tory.

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Those figures suggest Ford will struggle to stay afloat if voters who are unhappy with him eventually coalesce around a single top challenger. A competitive slugfest between two or more challengers, however, could give the polarizing incumbent a chance to eke out a victory with less than 40 per cent of the vote.

The automated voice response telephone survey is considered accurate within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

One-night polls may be less reliable than polls conducted over several nights; this poll was conducted on a day on which Tory received heavy media coverage. Forum’s automated-poll response rate is 3 to 4 per cent.

Voting day is Oct. 27, eight months away. Ford and Soknacki have been campaigning for a month and a half. Tory and Stintz made their first campaign comments Monday morning. Chow has said only that she is “seriously considering” a run.

Tory’s Monday numbers were higher than they were in Forum’s other polls this winter. He had the highest approval rating, at 55 per cent. Ford’s approval was stable at 44 per cent. Chow’s was 51 per cent, Stintz’s 38 per cent, Soknacki’s 26 per cent.

Tory’s support was spread relatively evenly throughout the city. Chow was strongest in the old municipalities of Toronto and East York, with 39 per cent; Ford was weakest in those areas, with only 19 per cent, but stronger than both Chow and Tory in the suburbs.

Ford has fared worse in polls conducted by Ipsos Reid than polls conducted by Forum. A mid-November Ipsos Reid poll had Chow at 36 per cent, Tory 28 per cent, Ford 20 per cent, Stintz 13 per cent, Soknacki 3 per cent. In a mid-December Ipsos Reid poll, 61 per cent said they would not consider voting for Ford.

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