According to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross there are enough positive indicators to preclude a recession in 2020.

Ross listed several items on Fox Business News’ “Mornings with Maria,” January 30, 2020 which will prevent negative markets for the duration of this year. He asserted that due to the United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement, also known as the USMCA adding up to 579,000 jobs and adding $235 billion or 1.2% to the U.S Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Other contributing items to our GDP to reach Trump’s campaign promise of 4% are: trade deals with Japan, Korea, and China; increased wages; full employment; increased consumer spending, increased consumer savings, and increased consumer confidence. Secretary Ross reinforced his point by highlighting we only realized six months of the increase in consumer spending and savings which resulted from the tax cuts and lower oil prices. He also pointed out we will now enjoy a full year of these contributors. It is important to keep in mind about two-thirds of the GDP is related to the consumer. With the early release today of the fourth quarter GDP for 2019 at 2.1%. These points support Ross’ argument.

Several contributing factors which lowered the GDP were the Boeing 737 MAX issue removed approximately .25% of GDP according to Secretary Ross. He also mentioned the United Auto Workers also contributed to a loss of the GDP.

In total all of these GDP contributors will continue to add to another year of winning.