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It’s therefore well advised that current outpourings be treated with a very jaundiced eye. The conclusion you’d get from the presentation they receive is that there’s a very close race underway, with the Liberals having clawed back a bit of the support they’d lost over a miserable winter of scandals and missteps. Depending on the pollster, they may or may not have retaken a very slim lead over Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives, who had been enjoying the fruits of Liberal troubles. Good news for the Liberals, right? Oh, and now that No. 1 sage and acknowledged guru Gerald Butts is back, who knows what could happen?

Photo by Todd Korol/Reuters

If you stand back far enough from the crowd, you might reach a very different interpretation. Justin Trudeau ascended to the prime ministership on a wave of popular excitement that surpassed anything since the first, halcyon days of his father’s leadership 50 years ago. His face was in demand for magazine covers and selfies well beyond the borders of Canada. The Liberals raised their seat count by 148, to a lead of 85 over the considerably reduced Tories, with a deluge of promises of better times, better policies and more … much more … spending. It was all to be sunny ways, my friend. Sunny ways.

They’ve had much going for them since. The economy may not be vibrant, but it’s not terrible. Unemployment is low. We’re not at war with anyone. Quebec is not threatening to separate.

Trudeau is in danger of being ousted after just four years

In the wake of their 2015 defeat, the opposition Conservatives chose Andrew Scheer as their leader. In the two years since, Scheer has had to endure much ribbing about his lack of charisma, his innate cheeriness, the fact many Canadians could join him in an elevator without a clue as to who he is. The man who placed second in the leadership race, Maxime Bernier, broke away in a snit and formed his own party, which for a time was seen as a threat. Scheer backtracked on a pledge to balance the budget within two years, blaming the Liberals for creating “an even bigger mess” than anticipated. His much-awaited climate-change plan was widely panned as all bun and no sausage.