The arrest of the mayor of Caracas is a sign that the regime will do whatever it takes to hold on to power

LATE on the afternoon of February 19th a large group of armed men, some with their faces covered, burst into the offices of Antonio Ledezma, the mayor of Caracas, on the sixth floor of a tower block in the normally quiet district of El Rosal. Some carried assault rifles, others side-arms and at least one had a riot shield. They smashed the glass door to his office with a sledgehammer and, according to eyewitnesses, responded with expletives to Mr Ledezma’s demand for a search warrant.

Outside was a fleet of vehicles worthy of an action movie, including black Hummers and other late-model SUVs. The mayor’s lawyer put the number of men involved in the operation at around 80. Barack Obama sent fewer soldiers to kill Osama bin Laden. Punching the struggling mayor several times, they hustled him out of the building, firing shots into the air to disperse a crowd that tried to prevent the arrest. In the early hours of the morning Mr Ledezma was finally allowed a phone call, in which he revealed that he was being held at the headquarters of the SEBIN, Venezuela’s state security police, which answers to the president, Nicolás Maduro.

In a rambling television address Mr Maduro said the mayor had been arrested for “crimes against the peace and security of the nation and against the constitution.” The accusation is that Mr Ledezma was part of a conspiracy to mount a coup against Venezuela’s leftist regime, the latest of a dozen alleged plots against the president. In reality, the military-style operation against the mayor may well be a signal that a regime that is losing its grip means to hold on to power by force.

In a democracy, Mr Maduro would have little hope of surviving as president past next year. The government’s ruinous economic policies have caused shortages of basic consumer goods and medicines and a sharp rise in inflation and poverty. Its approval ratings are below 20%. It faces long odds against winning a parliamentary election due later this year. Under the constitution, that could be followed by a referendum to recall the president. It is the government’s fear of this scenario that lies behind recent attacks on opposition leaders, including Mr Ledezma, believes Jesús Torrealba, the secretary-general of the Democratic Unity alliance (MUD), a grouping of opposition parties.

Mr Ledezma, twice elected mayor of metropolitan Caracas with more than 700,000 votes, is no stranger to strong-arm politics. Within days of his victory in 2008 over the government candidate, city hall was occupied by armed supporters of the then-president, Hugo Chávez. Later he was stripped of most of his authority; a pro-government official was appointed to exercise it. Shorn of 95% of his budget and working out of rented offices, the mayor nonetheless won re-election in 2013.

Last year, with María Corina Machado, an independent member of parliament, and Leopoldo López of the opposition Popular Will party, he launched “La Salida” (the way out), a plan to force Mr Maduro’s resignation through street protests. Several months of clashes in Venezuela’s cities left 43 people dead. Mr López has been held in a military jail ever since. The protests split the MUD into radicals and moderates. The deepening of Venezuela’s crisis has lately brought them closer together.

The coup that Mr Ledezma was supposedly plotting involved sending a light military aircraft from some (unspecified) foreign country to bomb the presidential palace. “Almost all the leaders” of the MUD knew about the plan, Mr Maduro claimed. A full-page advert in the country’s only remaining national opposition daily, El Nacional, taken out last week by Mr Ledezma, Mr López and Ms Machado, was the signal for the coup to go ahead, Mr Maduro insisted.

The advert was a manifesto arguing for the establishment of a broadly-based, transition government. Analysts have observed that coup-plotters rarely signal their intentions with newspaper advertisements and then wait around to be arrested. Mr Ledezma and Ms Machado--along with other opposition leaders--have ridiculed Mr Maduro’s allegations.



Venezuela’s judiciary and prosecution service take their orders from the government. Mr Ledezma, who will be 60 in May, is likely to be charged and then--if the López case is any guide—imprisoned during a trial that will end with a sentence intended to instill fear in other dissidents.

The government may hope that the spectacular arrest of one of the opposition’s leading figures will spark violent demonstrations like last year’s. They helped produce a temporary upturn in Mr Maduro’s plummeting poll figures. Mr Torrealba has warned the opposition against falling into that trap. But there is a risk in responding too timidly. If that happens, opposition supporters, many of whom are already sceptical that the government can be voted out of power, may be harder to mobilise at election time.

That is, if the elections take place at all. Some commentators believe that the government is prepared, if all else fails, to declare a state of emergency and suspend the constitution. Evidence is growing that it will do whatever it takes to hold on to power.