8.03am GMT

Good morning and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the papal conclave that is choosing the next pope.

The Vatican conclave began yesterday with the 115 cardinals who will decide which of their number becomes the next head of the Catholic church locking themselves in the Sistine Chapel to begin their deliberations.

A puff of black smoke yesterday evening indicated they had not yet chosen a pope. White smoke would have meant a new pontiff had been picked.

Black smoke from the first vote of the conclave in the Vatican City yesterday. Photograph: Camilla Morandi/Rex Features

The cardinals will probably have two ballots this morning, followed by a puff of smoke to reveal whether a decision has been reached, followed by another two ballots and another puff of smoke this afternoon.

But if a decision has been reached, white smoke could billow out above the Sistine Chapel at any time.

A two-thirds majority – 77 votes – is needed for outright victory.

You can watch the scene in St Peter’s Square live here. It looks a bit rainy again.

The favourite remains Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan, with Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer in second place. But in truth no figure goes into the conclave with the kind of strong prospects Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger had when he became Pope Benedict XVI in 2005.

Here’s today’s rough schedule:

5.30am GMT-6.30am GMT: Breakfast at St Martha’s House, the residence inside the Vatican walls where the cardinals eat and sleep cut off from the outside world for the duration of the conclave.

6.45am GMT: Departure for Apostolic Palace.

7.15am GMT: Mass in the Pauline Chapel.

8.30am GMT: Prayers and voting in Sistine Chapel. The cardinals can vote twice in the morning. If they have not elected a pope after two votes, black smoke will emerge from the chimney on the roof of the Sistine Chapel. If they have elected a pope, white smoke will emerge after either the first or second ballot of the morning session. Therefore, morning smoke can be expected any time between about 9.30 am and 11.30 am.

11.30am GMT: Departure for St Martha’s.

Midday GMT: Lunch.

3pm GMT: Departure for Sistine Chapel.

3.50pm GMT: Prayers and voting in Sistine Chapel. The cardinals can vote twice in the afternoon. Again, if they have not elected a pope after two votes, black smoke will emerge from the chimney. If they have elected a pope, white smoke will emerge after either the first or second ballot of the afternoon session. Therefore, afternoon smoke can be expected between about 4.30pm and 6.30pm.

6.15pm GMT: Vespers in the Sistine Chapel.

6.30pm GMT: Departure for St Martha’s.

7pm GMT: Dinner.

If no pope has been elected by Friday, the cardinals will hold a day of prayer and reflection on Saturday before resuming their conclave on Sunday.

We’ll have full coverage as long as the conclave lasts here.