Is This The End of Nashville’s Run?

Heading back home trailing by two games, the Preds have their backs to the wall. Is the Cinderella story over?

The Predators trail a series for the first time all postseason. Is the hill too big to climb? (Image via chicago.suntimes.com)

If I told you two months ago that the Nashville Predators would make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, you probably wouldn’t believe me.

If I told you that they’d play the defending champs, the Pittsburgh Penguins, and hold them to just twelve shots on goal in game one, you’d have an even harder time buying it. Especially if I told you they’d lose that game.

If you watched Wednesday night’s game, you probably had more of your expectations smashed when the two teams went tied into the third period, but Pittsburgh tallied three goals in the final frame and chased Nashville netminder Pekka Rinne.

So how did the Preds come crashing back down to earth? Is their magical run coming to an unfortunate end?

In an article written just over a month ago, I discussed how the Predators opening round victory over the Chicago Blackhawks symbolized so much of what is great about the NHL playoffs and the sport of hockey. I stated that they looked to become just the second eighth-seeded team to lift the Stanley Cup if they could make it. Certainly their magical run has taken them further than most could have predicted. Nashville has become America’s sweetheart and the team everyone is “pulling for”.

What’s worked to their benefit is the fact that they’ve gotten hot at exactly the right time. It happens time and again in the NHL — teams that were once a long shot are able to string together wins and get deep into the playoffs. Nashville hoped to be able to ride that wave to a championship.

Beyond they’re undefinable ability to win games at the right time, the Preds have also benefited from some outstanding defensive play. PK Subban has been in the middle of it all, leading the defense with excellent play in his own end to go with 11 points in the 18 games they’ve played. Subban has been an excellent leader and has caught a lot of attention in this postseason, and deservedly so. Blue-liners Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm have also done their part throughout the playoffs to help make Nashville one of the most dominant defenses in contention. Simply put, when they’re at their best, the Preds defense is incredibly hard to beat.

The team’s biggest asset, however, has been goaltender Pekka Rinne. Through the opening three rounds, Rinne’s numbers were very impressive. Rinne boasted a 12–4 record with a 1.70 GAA and a .941 SV% and was easily the biggest reason why Nashville made it as far as they have.

But even in the midst of an excellent playoff run, Rinne and the Preds were tasked with taking on the defending champs. For his own part, Rinne has never been very successful against Pittsburgh, going 1–5–2 over his career with a GAA over 3 and an .880 SV%. If the Eastern Conference Final proved anything, it’s that no matter how hot you get (see also: Ottawa Senators), the Pittsburgh Penguins are a downright buzzsaw.

While they haven’t quite been the same old buzzsaw in this series, the Penguins have found ways to beat the Predators and do the one thing that even hot teams sometimes fail to do: take advantage of opportunities. This was perfectly clear in Game One, when the Penguins needed only 12 shots to score five goals and win the game 5–3. They were outplayed for much of that game, but still found ways to take advantage of space and put shots on net. Pekka Rinne had been exposed.

In Game Two, Nashville again seemed to have an opportunity to win, especially with the game tied heading into the third. Ten seconds later, Pittsburgh was on top. Three minutes later, Rinne was on his way down the tunnel. The Penguins have been the favorite throughout the playoffs, and were heavily favored even during the course of the season to do what no team has done since 1998 — win back-to-back Stanley Cups.

What’s disheartening for Nashville as they head home for Game Three on Saturday night is that not one single thing seems to have gone right for a team that has had thrilling — if often plucky — run through the playoffs. Rinne has looked incredibly soft, despite the fact that the defense seems to have done their job. Pittsburgh has made good on every opportunity and made the Predators pay for every mistake, even getting some rare odd-man rushes in the third period of Game Two. Even though Nashville has shown periods of dominance, they trail 2–0 as they head home and it simply doesn’t look good for any sort of comeback. Even when the Pens went 37:00 without a shot in Game One, they were still able to net five goals overall.

If there’s anything encouraging about the Predators performance, it’s that they have looked good enough to hang in there against Pittsburgh for portions of each game thanks in large part to their defense. But if Rinne continues to struggle, or if Pittsburgh can continue to capitalize on opportunities, then it may not matter whether the Preds can hang. The Penguins don’t need much to score. And with the way their own goalie has looked — Murray made 37 saves in Game Two —Nashville will have to work twice as hard to regain ground.

All of Smashville is hoping that their home ice can make the difference. But Pittsburgh is proving all over again the qualities that have already made them champions.