He just ran a 61:20 time trial

Several marathon studs have looked vulnerable recently



Mo Farah is still unbeatable

He doesn’t want a repeat of the Beijing 10k final

He'll be 30 this May

No American has ever won an Olympic medal in both the 10k and marathon

The closing speed isn’t what it used to be

Marathons without pacers are accessible

It’s been 44 years since Frank Shorter won gold in Munich





Photo: ImaHeÂ’ll be 30 this MaOr perhaps more importantly, Rupp will be 34 in 2020. This is likely to be past his ideal marathon prime. Yes, there are outliersÂ— Meb Keflezghi has been great into his late 30s and beyond Â— but this is the age that Rupp should be attacking the marathon since the focus has always been on winning gold. Only one man (37 year-old Carlos Lopes in 1984) in the last 11 Olympic marathons has won at an age older than 33.

This is supposed to be the time of year when running news slows down. After all, Foot Locker was Saturday, NCAA XC has been over for three weeks, and most pros are quietly preparing for 2016. With less than two weeks until Christmas, the running schedule generally falls in line with the holiday break. Generally.But of course, exceptions are made when Galen Rupp goes and trots a 61:20 half marathon in a Mom-and-pop road race. A half marathon that, conveniently, was USATF sanctioned as an Olympic Trials qualifier just days before the race. Never before has the Foot Traffic Holiday Half generated so much traffic.Now, the greatest 10,000m runner in U.S. history can run in said Olympic Trials, if he (in coordination with Coach Salazar) so chooses. “I’m keeping my options open,” said Rupp to The Oregonian’s Ken Goe on Sunday, which is exactly the type of answer you would expect from the 29-year-old at this point. Even if the plan is to make his 26.2 debut in Los Angeles on February 13th, Rupp wasn’t going to qualify and announce on the same day. Not his style.A big point of contention is whether or not Rupp would spurn a six-figure appearance fee from New York, Boston, etc. to debut at the Trials. Several high-profile Americans— Shalane, Kara, Meb— have cashed in with their debuts, but Rupp would likely miss that payday by running his first marathon in Los Angeles on February 13th. People just don’t debut at the Olympic Trials. But in my view, a medal opportunity would take priority for Rupp over monetary gains. Gold around the neck is superior to gold in the bank per the Nike Oregon Project, and if they think the time is right, a huge check would not keep Rupp and Co. from the Trials.In all likelihood, no decision is set in stone right now. The plan with Rupp has been for a move to the marathon after 2016, but the fact that he ran this race when he could’ve just simulated the effort in training without all the hubbub shows that the plan might actively be changing. I’ll get into the reasons why below.But while we wait for a yay or nay from Rupp camp, let’s take a look at why the marathon route would make sense for him right now. Of course, I’m taking the liberty of putting the cart way before the horse and assuming he would make the Olympic team, but just play along. Even in what would be his debut, the owner of an Olympic silver medal and a 26:44 10k PR figures to make more than a smooth transition to 26.2.Here are nine reasons that Rupp should focus on the Olympic marathon in 2016:It may not jump off the page at first since his PR (from nearly 5 years ago) is 50 seconds faster, but running as fast as he did without competition is outstanding. When Rupp ran 60:30 in 2011, Mo Farah and former World Cross champion Gebregziabher Gebremariam finished just ahead of him in the New York City Half. Sunday was him and a guy on a bike for 13.1 miles, and he ran the second-fastest time by an American in 2015. And of course, he did a workout afterwards, per usual. The fitness is there with less than two months until the Trials.Outside of shoeless Eliud Kipchoge , several of the biggest names in the event have struggled of late. World record holder Dennis Kimetto has DNF’d his last two marathons while 2:03 man Wilson Kipsang DNF’d at Worlds and was just fourth in New York. Two-time Boston champ Lelisa Desisa was seventh at Worlds, and a distant third in New York. Defending Olympic champ Stephen Kiprotich was just sixth at Worlds. The list goes on. While Farah and Kamworor appear to have the top two spots in the 10k locked down, the marathon, by contrast, isn't as daunting. It’s not clear who the Kenyans will send to Rio, but a softened East African presence should be attractive for Rupp when looking towards the 26.2 distance.1:48 in the last two laps of the 5k at Beijing. That’s just silly. Rupp knows that his teammate still guards the gold medal door in both the 10 and 5, and this might be his biggest reason for gravitating towards 26.2 sooner than originally planned. He’s already won silver, and that’s the best possible scenario in 2016. A race without Farah is a race that’s actually winnable. Rupp was dejected after coming up short in the 10k this summer. He hung tough for 24 laps in a race that was quick by championship standards, but when the bell tolled, he had used up all his reserves. Farah closed in 54 while the American stumbled home in 61 seconds with nothing to show for his labor. “I just ran hard the whole way,” a frustrated Rupp would say afterwards, seemingly at a loss for words.I was there. He ran a brilliant race, but he just didn’t have that pop in the last lap like he had in 2012. Does Rupp really want to do this all over again in Rio?Or perhaps, more importantly, Rupp will be 34 in 2020. This is likely to be past his ideal marathon prime. Yes, there are outliers— Meb Keflezghi has been great into his late 30s and beyond — but this is the age that Rupp should be attacking the marathon since the focus has always been on winning gold. Only one man (37-year-old Carlos Lopes in 1984) in the last 11 Olympic marathons has won at an age older than 33.Not just in one Olympics, but altogether. Rupp already has the silver from London, and a marathon medal in Rio would further establish him as the greatest distance runner in U.S. history. Remember how important records are to the whole NOP mission statement? This would cement the legacy. A move to the marathon now before Farah and Kamworor go to the roads ups his chances.The Beijing 10k wasn’t the only example. Rupp’s closing speed was also suspect in the US 5k final—he almost didn’t make the team, and most glaringly, at the mile at the Flotrack Throwdown as Rupp was out-kicked by Peter Callahan, Colby Alexander, and Hassan Mead. No disrespect to those guys, but do you think Mo Farah would lose to two unsigned post-collegians as well as the 10k specialist Mead?Just look at who won the World Championship marathon. Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, he of 19 years, wasn’t on anyone’s radar heading into Beijing, but he walked away with a 40-second victory. Such is the nature of a championship marathon, as pacers are gone which brings more than just the sub-2:05 guys into contention. Perhaps Rupp watched his former Oregon Project teammate Luke Puskedra finish fifth in the pacer-less Chicago Marathon and his imagination ran wild at the thought of this sort of scenario playing out in Rio. That’s not to say that he can’t hang when the pace starts to get hot, but Rupp should like his chances if the real racing doesn't begin until 10k to go.We’ve waited long enough since an American stood atop the Olympic podium in this storied race. The odds are still pretty long, but a 2016 version of Galen Rupp might just be the best bet for the foreseeable future.