A prediction for a near normal to slightly busier than average hurricane season was released today by a leading forecaster with the caveat that April projections are notoriously shaky.

Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather isn't expecting a repeat of the double-barrelled tropical calamities of 2017 and 2018, but is seeing signs that have at least one expert spooked.

While a hurricane-toppling El Niño is predicted to govern weather patterns through summer, unusually warm pockets of ocean, and climate models showing weak wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida are similar to last year, said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Dan Kottlowski.

"I am kind of nervous with the way the shear is looking," Kottlowski said. "The thing that scares me the most, though, is there is so much warm water everywhere. I'm really concerned about that."

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Warm water supercharges hurricanes, which can deepen quickly if they get even a small sip.

"Irma, Maria, Michael, they all went over these warm segments of water and that caused them to intensify dramatically," Kottlowski said.

AccuWeather is predicting 12 to 14 named storms, including five to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

A normal season has 12 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

James Franklin, former chief of forecast operations for the National Hurricane Center, warns early hurricane forecasts are unreliable and shouldn't be used as gauge for preparation.

"There isn’t a single decision that I would change regarding my pre-season preparation, based on any of those seasonal forecasts," he said. "They are useless to individuals along the coast, or inland, in assessing their risk during the upcoming season, because they contain no information about where or how many storms will affect any particular location."

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While early hurricane forecasts are a challenge because the atmosphere has yet to make a seasonal shift, they are based heavily on whether an El Niño is expected to be present. For Florida, the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can mean a less active hurricane season with fewer of the powerhouse Category 5 tropical cyclones known to build during the peak months of August through October.

AccuWeather is forecasting that the current El Niño phase and intensity should continue right through the summer, including the most active time of the season: August, September and October.

The federal Climate Prediction Center, which will issue its hurricane forecast in May, is also giving El Niño a 60 percent chance of persisting through the summer and a 50 percent chance of making it into fall.

But El Niño is a moody operator, sometimes teasing climatologists with signs of warming without a follow-through.

That happened in 2017 when AccuWeather and CSU issued April forecasts calling for below normal hurricane seasons based on the prediction of an El Niño taking center stage.

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It didn't. Instead a hyper-active season overwhelmed the Atlantic basin with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. Three Category 4 cyclones - Harvey, Irma and Maria - hit the continental U.S. or Puerto Rico.

The April 2018 forecasts called for slightly above normal seasons, then changed tunes in August to a prediction for a below normal season as El Niño began to flirt. Again, it was a no-show, and 2018's cyclone scoreboard racked up 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

James Done, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said a climate change and a warming planet may be changing the relationship between El Niño and hurricane formation.

"We know the hurricanes derive their energy from the oceans so the warmer the oceans, the more energy they get," said Done, who has a fellowship with the Willis Re reinsurance company. "The predictions are based on the historical record and we know oceans are warmer now than in the 1970s."

The 2018 hurricane season is most known for hurricanes Florence and Michael, both of which caused enough damage and death to have their names retired from the rotating six-year list of storm names.

Hurricane Florence, which hit the southeastern coast of North Carolina on Sept. 14, caused at least 51 deaths and severe flooding across the Carolinas and Virginia.

Hurricane Michael made landfall Oct. 10 near Mexico Beach in Florida's Panhandle as a strong Category 4 storm with 155-mph winds. It was the third most intense hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous U.S. based on central pressure. At least 45 deaths are blamed on the storm, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In all, 2018 had 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

This is a breaking news story. Please check PalmBeachPost.com for updates.

Kmiller@pbpost.com

@KmillerWeather