Minxin Pei says the Communist Party of China (CPC) is “responsible” for the current “calamity,” due to its penchant for secrecy in times of crisis. The leadership has been widely criticised for being slow to acknowledge the severity of the deadly coronavirus, and is facing demands for greater transparency in their disclosures about the disease. The full-blown crisis may be one of those "black swan events" Xi Jinping warned about a year ago, that could destabilise the CPC’s 70-year rule.

The author says “China seems not to have learned its lesson” from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002/2003, which killed more than 800 people and infected more than 8,000 worldwide. The CPC is repeating the same mistake and its “pathological secrecy” has been getting in the way of its ability to confront the coronavirus, hobbling the “authorities’ capacity to respond quickly” to its outbreak and contain it sooner.

Despite “important differences” between today’s coronavirus outbreak and the SARS epidemic – “including far greater technological capacity to monitor disease” – they may show the CPC’s “habit” of withholding information in common. Although “the first case was reported on December 8, the Wuhan municipal health commission did not issue an official notice until several weeks later,” and its “officials have downplayed the seriousness of the disease and deliberately sought to suppress news coverage.”

There had been “tighter control over the Internet, media, and civil society.” Wary of letting fear run rampant, police have worked meticulously to control the narrative about the virus, harassing people for “spreading rumors” about the disease. Misleading information – “no evidence that the new illness could be transmitted among humans, and claimed that no health-care workers had been infected” – and the “systemic cover-ups of scandals and deficiencies” do “reflect poorly upon the CPC’s leadership.”

Instead of “doing what is necessary” the propaganda machinery is moving into overdrive to protect Xi’s reputation. The president has always sought to cultivate an image as a beloved “People’s Leader.” He met World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Tuesday. Initially he told Tedros that he “personally directed” the response to the outbreak. But later, state outlets quoted Xi saying that his administration was “collectively directing” the response.

Critics said if Xi was fully confident of a victorious outcome against the disease, why not put himself in charge and reap all of the credits? Popular faith in Xi, who had abolished the term limit and consolidated power, portraying himself as China’s strongest leader since Mao, could “evaporate” if the situation worsened dramatically.

It would be a political catastrophe if the virus would continue spreading to major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. The word “Chernobyl” has been on people’s mind recently. The Kremlin’s ineptitude to deal with the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown in 1986 is widely seen as hastening the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The author says “the Chinese government’s attempts to protect its image proved costly, because they undermined initial containment efforts.” What he sees as a “tragic” chapter of the current ciris is that “there is little reason to hope that next time will be different. The survival of the one-party state depends on secrecy, media suppression, and constraints on civil liberties.”

Although Xi “demands that the government increase its capacity to handle ‘major risks,’ China will continue to undermine its own – and the world’s – safety, in order to bolster the CPC’s authority.” For years China has proved unable to address the health risks that experts have long warned could lead to an outbreak just like this one. The gulf between autocratic leaders in Beijing and local officials who run the country day-to-day, is the core conundrum in how a highly centralised system works.