Jennifer Jacobs

jejacobs@dmreg.com

Democrat Bruce Braley has been flying under the radar for the 14 months he's been in the U.S. Senate race, working more on fundraising and wooing activists than cementing his overall image to statewide voters, Iowa politics watchers say.

It can be a wise strategy for a candidate to lie low and scoop up campaign cash while the opposing party fights it out in a primary, said David Yepsen, who wrote about Iowa politics for 34 years.

Problem is: Now Braley's had his big introduction, and it wasn't the one his campaign wanted.

"He won't hear the end of this," Yepsen said.

Braley's campaign strategists say the candidate knew he was being videotaped at the private fundraiser when he made the remark that has the political world buzzing, describing Chuck Grassley as "a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school." They think the GOP is seriously overhyping the videotape, and that it will backfire.

"I think they're overplaying it like they overplayed Obamacare," Jeff Link, a senior adviser for Braley's campaign, told The Des Moines Register. "When most voters hear 'Obamacare,' they essentially tune it out because it's become the proxy for negativity."

Republicans admit they're milking this controversy, employing everything from bumper stickers and Burma Shave-style signs to robocalls and TV advertising campaigns to damage Braley's bid to replace retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin.

The GOP's headlong rush to capitalize on the incident stems in part because Braley has looked so dominant. Just two days before the video was widely publicized, statistical guru Nate Silver gave Braley a 75 percent chance to win the race.

"This gaffe shows the extent to which the perception of a race can change on the drop of a dime," said Brad Dayspring, a strategist for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

IOWA POLITICAL GAFFE HALL OF FAME: 9 notables errors | Text version at DesMoinesRegister.com/politics

Big effort invested in pursuing gaffes

Hunting for gaffes has become an increasingly serious and high-stakes political pursuit.

Though Braley's campaign events are open to the media and are often promoted to the public in advance in local news outlets, GOP operatives pointed out that his Iowa schedule hasn't been published anywhere online, making it more difficult for Republican trackers to find him.

When videocamera-carrying trackers have managed to catch up with him, his aides have kicked them out on at least 27 occasions, according to a list provided to the Register by trackers with Priorities for Iowa and America Rising.

"Of all the Senate races in the country that we have been tracking, Braley has been the most secretive and most averse to cameras," said Tim Miller, a co-founder of America Rising, the conservative group that discovered the video of Braley's Jan. 23 remarks and released it widely last week.

"Braley's strategists might think they are protecting their candidate from himself by keeping him under wraps, but all that does is raise the stakes each time he does speak, which amplifies mistakes," Miller said.

But this so-called scandal proves the campaign's instincts were right to avoid videographers who examine Braley's every word for a chance to jump all over him, his aides said.

"It's just the reality of all these trackers. At some events, we may not convince a reporter to show up, but we'd have three or four trackers," Link said. "That's why the Republicans don't publish their schedules either."

The Braley campaign said their tracker, too, has been barred from GOP U.S. Senate candidates' events, including three Joni Ernst events, two Mark Jacobs events, three Sam Clovis events and two county party events.

Gaffes damaging if seen as pattern

Some say rival campaigns overemphasize gaffes, which are exaggerated by media coverage that should be focused on more serious matters.

What's worse than a silly gaffe is a stupid statement or action that a candidate should be held accountable for but is not, said Herb Strentz, a former dean and retired journalism professor at Drake University.

"(Republican U.S. Rep. Steve) King leads the field in that, and (Gov. Terry) Branstad is Mr. Teflon for saying dumb things like creating 200,000 new jobs, raising incomes 25 percent and restoring respect for the judiciary … and not being held accountable," Strentz said.

And even worse is the shallowness of journalism that just won't let go of an issue — regardless of how trivial it is, Strentz said.

Gaffes are sometimes more manufactured than an outright mistake or misstatement, said University of Iowa politics professor Timothy Hagle.

They do the most damage, experts said, when they're a window into what's perceived as some truth about a candidate's character, reinforced by similar incidents that show a pattern of behavior that brings into question the candidate's fitness for office.

Republicans in 2006 and 2008 campaigned against Braley, a four-term congressman from northeast Iowa, by saying he'd be a spokesman in Congress for trial lawyers. Now Braley, in front of a camera, personally confirmed it, GOP operatives said. He told the trial lawyers at the Jan. 23 fundraiser that he'd be "your voice."

"Braley's comments reveal that Democrats have a flawed candidate with the propensity to make mistakes, which we've long thought," said Dayspring, of the NRSC. "Braley has a history of saying insulting and tone-deaf things."

Republicans say their evidence includes Braley's remark in October 2013 about the lack of towel service at the U.S. House gym during the government shutdown, and the way he pointed out an Affordable Care Act critic's lack of an advanced degree, going after her credentials in a 2009 subcommittee hearing like a lawyer discrediting a witness on the stand.

Braley staffers see incident as a bruise

But Braley's strategists said one of the reasons his backers find Braley refreshing is that he will speak off the cuff. It's part of his confidence as a litigator that he thinks he can speak well, reason well and win people to his side.

Link acknowledged that some Democrats predict Braley will now be more guarded.

But he said: "The best advice is always to ask someone to be themselves, and I think when Bruce shows his true colors, it's a big win for him. He is a genuine person. He is likable, and the more we get that across, the better off we're going to be. I think he'll continue to be himself."

Braley's backers believe the gaffe is a bruise, not a decapitation, but Republicans compared his predicament to errors by Mitt Romney — an extraordinarily successful businessman who had a lifelong history of caring for others with no expectation of anything in return. But his opponents defined him as a self-centered opportunist who shattered workers' lives and cared only about the rich.

Despite having the wind at his back with a fretful economy, he was undone in Iowa and elsewhere in part because of a caught-on-video remark about the 47 percent of Americans he said believe they're entitled to government help.

"I think we put on a good face after the 47 percent video came out," said Miller, who worked for the Republican National Committee at the time, "but it's wrong to think Romney's aides weren't concerned about the impact. I'd imagine the Braley camp is privately quite concerned about the unappealing public image their candidate is cultivating, and if they aren't, they are underestimating how bad he's come off at their own peril."

Democrats argue Romney's words were far more denigrating and mean-spirited than Braley's.

Roll the clip reel: "My job is not to worry about those people," Romney said of the 47 percent of Americans he described as dependent upon government. "I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

In Braley's case, his aides told the Register, he knew he was being videotaped.

"No hidden camera," campaign spokesman Jeff Giertz said.

Apology sincere, Braley camp says

Link said Braley was simply describing his own background, in which he takes pride, as well as describing Grassley's background, in which Grassley takes pride.

But Braley doesn't take this lightly: He has apologized, and he was sincere, Link said.

Republicans said they doubt the sincerity of Braley's apology because instead of focusing on contrition, he used his statement to take a gratuitous shot at GOP rival Mark Jacobs.

Link noted that Republicans have wrongly predicted Braley's demise before, like last fall, when they said the rocky start-up of the Affordable Care Act website was going to be the defining issue that Braley would never be able to overcome.

Now that 6 million people are enrolled, that criticism has died down, Link said.

"News moves so quickly," Link said. "Ten issues could pop up between now and the election — and some might revolve around Bruce, some might revolve around Mark Jacobs and some might revolve around Joni Ernst."