Keep in mind, it’s not just the Trump nomination that he botched. In recent years, he has gotten Super Bowls wrong, the Oscars wrong, the 2014 Scottish independence referendum wrong and the 2015 U.K. elections wrong.

We all make mistakes, of course. The difference is that Silver’s entire raison d’etre — and he has been wildly celebrated for this — rests on his ability to make picks. But really, his track record for the last, I don’t know, four years, is spotty on some pretty big things. Now, if Silver were known for his flowery prose or for cultivating terrific sources on the House Budget Committee, we might forgive him for botching a big prediction. But this is his bread and butter. This is what he does. To paraphrase “Thank You For Smoking,” Michael Jordan plays ball, Charles Manson kills people and Nate Silver gets predictions right. (Except, of course, Manson didn’t technically murder anyone — and Silver doesn’t always make good picks. Perception is reality).



[Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?]



I know what you’re thinking. This is when you school me on understanding the concept of a probability, right? Look, I get that sometimes the unlikely actually happens. Sometimes it rains when there’s only a five percent chance of showers. This excuse also works as a cop-out — a sort of get-out-of-jail-free card that allows you to get credit when things go right, but avoid blame when they don’t. This is like when Jon Stewart or Rush Limbaugh messes up and then get to claim they are mere “entertainers.” If your local meteorologist says there’s just a five percent chance of snow and then the biggest blizzard of the century destroys your city (an apt Trumpian analogy), it’s a pretty good bet that weatherman will lose his credibility, if not his job.

Schadenfreude