With the FIBA World Cup in full swing and training camp around the corner, meaningful basketball is in the air. Over the next 6 weeks, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weakness heading into the first season of the 2020s.

Up next is the Boston Celtics.

2018-19 Finish: 49-33, 4th in East

Who’s in: Romeo Langford (14th pick), Grant Williams (22nd pick), Carsen Edwards (33rd pick), Tremont Waters (51st pick), Tacko Fall (un-drafted free agent), Kemba Walker (free agency), Enes Kanter (free agency), Vincent Poirier (free agency, international)

Who’s out: Kyrie Irving (BRK), Al Horford (PHI), Terry Rozier (CHA), Marcus Morris (NYK), Aron Baynes (PHX), Guerschon Yabusele (released)

Starters

PG – Kemba Walker

SG – Jaylen Brown

SF – Gordon Hayward

PF – Jayson Tatum

C – Enes Kanter

Bench: Marcus Smart, Romeo Langford, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye, Robert Williams, Carsen Edwards, Brad Wanamaker, Daniel Theis, Vincent Poirier

Sneaky Breakout Candidate: 30 year-old point guard Brad Wanamaker displayed a steady presence in his first taste of NBA action last season. Given the lack of point guard depth, Wanamaker should get a good shot as a backup show runner for the Celtics.

What Happened Last Year?

Expectations were high following a dazzling 2018 postseason run and the impending return of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, but the Celtics struggled mightily to gel throughout the 18-19 season, finishing with fewer than 50 wins and flaming out to Milwaukee in the Eastern semis. Buzz arose surrounding locker room issues all year, and it seems like all parties involved were in favor of Irving bouncing for Brooklyn in free agency, despite his verbal commitment to stay before the season.

2019-20 Analysis

Everything seemed to have been built for the 2019 Celtics to be ground zero of a dynasty, but as we’ve seen numerous times in the last few seasons, trying to predict the NBA is about as pointless as the league’s tampering rules. The past is the past, and the Celtics have pivoted toward a new path quickly and efficiently.

Kemba Walker is not a better player, or asset, than Kyrie Irving, but he’s still an All-NBA caliber point guard in his own right, and has proven to be a much less volatile locker room presence throughout his time with Connecticut and Charlotte. Kemba does a lot of similar things to Kyrie; he can pull up from anywhere and has the slippery ball handling that requires so much attention from defenses. Kemba performed better in pick and roll situations when compared to Kyrie (Kemba ranked in the 90th percentile in pick and rolls, compared to Irving in the 85th, per Second Spectrum), on nearly double the volume (11.8 possessions per game vs. 6.6, per Second Spectrum), with a greater offensive load and far, far worse teammates. Brad Stevens’ offense has proven to be a stimulant for point guard production, and given Kemba’s shooting capability off the bounce and the catch, he should have no problem generating 80-90% of Irving’s production from the last 2 seasons.

The loss of Al Horford might wind up being more impactful, especially considering they weren’t able to replace him with an all-star caliber player like they were with Kemba. Horford’s high post playmaking was a catalyst of Brad Stevens’ offense, and his sound defensive fundamentals and versatility have caused headaches for Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner over the past two postseasons. There’s no way to really get around how important he was for Boston, even if it’s a logical decision to not lock down a 33 year old with potential knee issues for 4 years. They were, however, able to sign Enes Kanter for the room exception. Kanter’s defensive deficiencies have been broken down in excruciating detail at this point (his work against the Warriors in the West Finals was especially gruesome), and the drop off from Horford will cause headaches for Celtics fans (What the hell even is this?). Still, Kanter is not a completely useless player. He’s a beast of a rebounder on both ends, which was a major issue for Boston last season; the Celtics ranked dead last in contested rebounding percentage last season, per Second Spectrum. He’ll also score efficiently out of the post, adding a much needed wrinkle to the Celtics’ perimeter-oriented offense. Daniel Theis and Vincent Poirier should be able to hold their own as the second and third string centers, and hey, maybe Tacko Fall will actually be playable, but the Celtics should look to be active in the trade and buyout markets if an additional quality big man becomes available.

The Celtics’ bread and butter lies in their wing talent. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown return from China looking to cement themselves among the cream of the crop of wings in the East. Tatum and Brown both seemed to struggle to mesh with all of the talent Boston brought last season, and may be the biggest benefactors of Kyrie Irving’s departure. Tatum’s FIBA World Cup run was cut short by an ankle injury, but in the games he did play, he looked more polished as a playmaker and a defender, even running as a stretch 5 at points for USA’s center-depleted squad. Brown shined throughout the tournament, proving to be one of the most reliable players for the United States. Brown is looking for a big contract, either now or next July. He’s in position now to embrace the opportunity and show that he is more than just another 3&D wing. Marcus Smart returns from China as well for his 6th season with Boston, coming off the best offensive season of his career. Smart went from “the worst volume three-point shooter in the NBA” to a suddenly perfectly fine shooter last season, and expanded his skills as an initiator. We know he’s going to bring it every night defensively. If Smart’s shooting wasn’t a fluke (I don’t think it was), he’ll continue to be one of the Celtics’ 2 or 3 most important players.

The X-factor for the Celtics, of course, will be Gordon Hayward. Hayward’s struggles in his first season back from a gruesome leg injury were well documented. Hayward is taking up $65 million of the Celtics cap space in the next two years. If he can’t return to even 75-80% of his 2017 self, the Celtics’ ceiling shrinks severely. There’s reason to be hopeful for Hayward. He’ll have the chance to act as the main facilitator for Boston next year, a role that he should feel more comfortable with in his second season in Boston’s offense. He doesn’t need to be an all-star; if Hayward can just prove that he can still be a high-level starter, it’ll do wonders for the Celtics 2020 hopes.

Off the bench, rookies Romeo Langford and Grant Williams should get a shot to prove themselves in their rookie seasons. Langford still has to add polish to his game on both ends, but one area of his game that could help Boston is his ability to draw fouls. The Celtics’ ranked dead last last year in free throw rate per NBA.com, and Langford took over 6 free throws a game in his freshman season at Indiana. Williams was touted as one of the most-NBA ready prospects in his class. He’ll likely thrive as a small-ball 5 in the NBA, with his ability to run the offense out of the post and his knack for being in the right place on defense. Williams will need to improve his mobility and continue to build on his outside game, but there’s definitely a little Al Horford in his game. I’d be shocked if he isn’t able to contribute right away in the NBA. Carsen Edwards will probably spend a lot of time in Maine, but he’s still bound for at least a couple nights of electrifying shooting off the bench. I desperately hope Tacko Fall plays at least 10 total NBA minutes next season.

Record Prediction: 48-34

The Final Line: The Celtics ceiling isn’t as high as it’s been in past seasons, but a fresh start with new faces should create a much more enthusiastic basketball environment. They’re still in dire need of some size, but the Celtics perimeter talent and organizational infrastructure is too good for them not to make waves in the Eastern Conference.

~ Q