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This article was published 19/10/2010 (3634 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Mayor Sam Katz has a six-point lead on Judy Wasylycia-Leis as Winnipeg's mayoral race enters the home stretch, but a more committed core of support for the challenger suggests election night may be a nail-biter.

Katz enjoys the support of 38 per cent of Winnipeg voters while Wasylycia-Leis has 32 per cent, according to a Leger Marketing telephone survey commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and CBC News.

The October survey of 800 Winnipeg adults also suggests candidates Rav Gill and Brad Gross each have one per cent support, while 18 per cent of surveyed voters had yet to decide. Another six per cent refused to answer, while four per cent chose none of the above.

Leger Marketing vice-president Dave Scholz said he believes the race between Katz and Wasylycia-Leis will end up being close on Oct. 27, based on the large proportion of undecided voters as well as the fact the challenger's supporters appear to be more interested in the election.

"She has a smaller core voting for her, but it's a committed core," Scholz said in a telephone interview from his Toronto office.

Survey respondents were asked to rate their interest in the race, on a scale of one to 10. The average interest for a Wasylycyia-Leis supporter was 6.5 out of 10, while Katz supporters averaged 5.4 out of 10, Scholz said.

Furthermore, 25 per cent of Wasylycia-Leis supporters rated their interest at nine or 10 out of 10, compared to only nine per cent of Katz supporters who did so.

"Her voters are significantly more interested in this election than his voters," Scholz said.

"That means her voters are more likely to come out than his are. If there's anything to prevent them, such as bad weather or a TV show, there's a good chance he's not going to get the vote out."

Getting out the vote has long been considered a strong suit of the NDP campaign machinery. But it's not clear whether every faction of the NDP will lend its election-day support to Wasylycia-Leis, the former NDP MP for Winnipeg North.

Wasylycia-Leis has some labour support, even though both the Canadian Union of Public Employees and the Manitoba Government and general Employees Union have declined to formally endorse her.

Katz enjoys the support of a number of Conservative party organizers as well as the unions representing Winnipeg police officers and firefighters.

The spread between Katz and Wasylycia-Leis has waxed and waned in earlier polls conducted by Probe Research, Viewpoints Research and Ipsos Canada.

A Probe/Free Press poll conducted in September placed Katz and Wasylycia-Leis in a statistical dead heat.

Scholz said he does not believe Katz's current lead guarantees the incumbent a victory on Oct. 27 -- nor will he bet on Wasylycia-Leis simply because her voters are more interested.

"It's going to be close no matter what. It's going to be a matter of who comes out," Scholz said.

bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca