Poll: Donald Trump still on top as outsiders Fiorina, Carson rise

Susan Page and Paulina Firozi | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has strengthened his lead at the top of the USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll while two other outsider candidates, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, have gained ground over rivals with electoral experience.

Jeb Bush, who was second to Trump two months ago in the USA TODAY survey, has tumbled to single digits and fifth place. The third-place finisher last time, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, suspended his campaign this month.

"Unfortunately, I'm leaning toward Trump, only because he's a non-political figure," said Ginger Mangam, 58, a customer service representative from Little Rock who was among those surveyed. Asked about his lack of electoral experience, she replied, "I don't think it's a problem; I think it's a message."

Anthony Edelen, 37, a small-business owner from Vermillion, S.D., likes what he hears from Trump and Fiorina. "I just want somebody who is going to move our country in a direction different from where it is currently," he said in a follow-up interview.

The shifting landscape underscores an electorate that is fed up with politics-as-usual and willing to embrace contenders who promise to shake things up. Some presidential hopefuls with significant political experience — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham among them — have failed to gain traction and score at 1% or below, a standing that may make it harder for them to raise money and command a spot on stage in televised debates.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has risen to fourth place, backed by 9% of those surveyed.

The poll of 380 likely Republican primary voters, taken Thursday through Monday, has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points. The full sample of 1,000 likely voters has an error margin of +/-3 points.

Some political analysts, including those in the latest USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings, see Trump as beginning to lose ground while scrutiny on him as a potential president intensifies. Still, he continues to lead the field at 23%, up 6 points from the survey in July. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, and Fiorina, an ex-CEO, tie for second at 13%, both big jumps from the last poll. That means about half of the GOP electorate back candidates who have never served in elective office.

No other candidate breaks into double digits. Rubio is at 9%, Bush at 8%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 6% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2%. Not a single respondent backs former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum or former New York governor George Pataki.

"I support Donald Trump because ... he's the only one that has what it takes to stand up to people," declared Nina Neece, 56, of Turlock, Calif. "He's not afraid of offending anybody."

Jordan Penegor, 21, a barista from Reno, follows Carson on Facebook and likes what she reads. "He's not a politician, so he doesn't look at the political views," Penegor said. "He just looks at helping the American people as a whole."

The poll does spot some potential problems for Trump. Among all those surveyed, Americans by more than 2-1, 61%-27%, have an unfavorable opinion of him. In contrast, Carson is viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 32%. Fiorina has a net favorable rating of 38%-32%.

When those surveyed were asked to volunteer one word to describe Trump, the most frequent response was "idiot" or "jerk." For Fiorina, the most frequent response was "smart."

"It has now come down to the GOP 'gang of six,' " says David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. That would be Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Bush and Cruz. "These six contenders swallow up nearly three-quarters of the Republican vote."

The unconventional candidates benefit from broad dissatisfaction with the nation's course. Six in 10 say the country is on the wrong track, and just 30% say the Democratic and Republican parties do a good job of representing Americans' political views. A 53% majority say a third party or multiple parties are necessary.

Most Americans say it's not possible for a Muslim to be elected president, an issue that arose when Carson expressed skepticism on NBC's Meet the Press about whether an observant Muslim could meet the job's constitutional requirements. By 53%-39%, those surveyed say a Muslim couldn't be elected. By 49%-40%, they say they would vote for a qualified Muslim themselves.

What about the inaccurate assertion that President Obama is a Muslim? One-third of Republicans say he is.