Sunday marks The Walking Dead’s fourth mid-season finale, and we know how things work on AMC’s zombie series. Someone is going to die. In fact, it’s possible that more than one major character may die. The Governor is expected to attack the prison (likely in a tank), and that sort of move doesn’t come without casualties. There will almost certainly be several minor characters who die in the mid-season finale, as well, including a few from The Governor’s new camp. But which major character (or characters) is the most likely to die? Let’s investigate the likely possibilities.

5. Maggie — There’s no real reason for Maggie to die at this point, and it would be dumb for Scott Gimple to kill her off since she’s one of the most popular characters on the show. Nothing this season has in any way foreshadowed her death, nor has her character’s utility been exhausted. However, she’s one of the featured guests on this week’s The Talking Dead, and The Talking Dead has a history of booking guests on the episode after their characters die. Fortunately, there’s also a “mystery guest,” which is the more likely person to die. I hope.

4. Tyreese — Tyreese has been on The Walking Dead since the season three mid-season finale, and that’s a long time for a black male character in a series that likes to kill off black male characters. With Bob Stookey around, can the The Walking Dead carry two token black guys? Besides that, Tyreese may have already exhausted his utility: Chad Coleman is a great, warm, and affectionate actor, but they haven’t really taken advantage of that. Tyreese has been in a depression since his girlfriend died. He’s already put himself in danger a couple of times, so there’s no reason to think he won’t try to sacrifice himself again when The Governor attacks. Plus, if the show wants to bring Carol back at some point in the second half of the season, it would be much easier without Tyreese around, since he’ll want to kill her.

3. Judith — If Scott Gimple wants to get maximum devastation out of the mid-season finale without actually killing off a necessary character, it makes sense to let Lil Ass Kicker go. In the early part of the season, in a scene with Michonne, we saw enough of Judith that it would break our hearts to see her die (and a zombie Judith would probably be too much to handle). Moreover, if there’s any possibility of The Governor actually taking over the prison during the attack, the easiest way to cripple Rick is probably through Judith. Narratively, Judith is also dead weight: She ties up Beth’s character (who is always on babysitting duty), which prevents her from growing. Moreover, Andrew Lincoln warned of a painful mid-season finale for his character, and the death of Judith makes more sense than the death of Carl.

2. Hershel — It’s time. Hershel was already supposed to die at the end of season two. Hell, he probably should’ve died during the infection. He had his hero moment in episode five, and showrunners love to kill off characters after they’ve had heroic turns. What else has Hershel got left to prove? The Greene family has been resilient, but it’s probably time they lost one member of that clan.

1. The Governor — I mean, come on. He has to, right? He should’ve died at the end of season three. However, they gave him two episodes to redeem his character, before once again dooming him to his fate as The Governor, illustrating how history repeats itself. What else is left for The Governor? If he takes over the prison, then we just see another repeat of Woodbury, and it’s not narratively sustainable for a mad man to be in charge. Plus, despite protestations to the contrary, David Morrissey is not going to have time to play the role once he’s the lead on his new AMC series. It just makes sense from both the character and the actor’s perpective to kill off The Governor.