It’s early in the season, but several top pitching prospects have already logged 4 starts in the 2019 campaign. Let’s look at some of those hot starts using our Strawberry Start Ratio (SSR) to point out some of the top performers thus far.

The SSR is inspired by Baseball HQ’s work on the PQS system. Basically, a pitcher gets credit for hitting certain benchmarks during the course of a start. The benchmarks for our SSR system are:

6 or more IPs Less hits allowed than innings pitched More than 5 strikeouts More than 12 strikeouts Strikeout to walk ratio is equal to or greater than 3.0 0 HR allowed

Then, the raw “strawberries” are converted into a ratio relative to the rest of the league (the SSR). A league average pitcher has an SSR of 1.0. A pitcher with an SSR of 1.10 is 10% better than the league average pitcher, as an example.

By way of comparison, Angels pitching prospect Patrick Sandoval posted a 1.44 overall SSR in 2018, leading all of the minor leaguers who made at least 15 starts last season.

Rank Name SSR GS AVG 1 Casey Mize 1.72 3 4.3 2 Jordan Balazovic 1.67 3 4.0 3 Elieser Hernandez 1.67 3 4.0 4 Ljay Newsome 1.58 4 3.5 5 Zac Gallen 1.54 4 3.3 6 Tommy Parsons 1.5 4 3.0 7 Chris Vallimont 1.5 4 3.0 8 Tyler Phillips 1.5 3 3.0 9 Matt Manning 1.5 3 3.0 10 Devin Smeltzer 1.5 3 3.0

Casey Mize – 1.72 SSR Today The Athletic’s Emily Waldon declared that Mize “has nothing left to prove in the Florida State League”: Moral of the story:#Tigers Casey Mize has nothing left to prove in the Florida State League. — Emily Waldon (@EmilyCWaldon) April 23, 2019 It’s hard to disagree with her. Mize sits easily at the top of our SSR charts because he’s just doing every little thing that you want to see your future staff ace do. He’s pitching deep into games (6.5 innings per start), he’s limiting hits and hard contact (.085 batting average against), his K/BB ratio is absurd (25:1), and he’s yet to allow a home run this season. Mize might be promoted to AA Erie by the time we wake up tomorrow. I don’t envision him having much of a problem against AA hitters either.

Jordan Balazovic – 1.67 SSR Balazovic is a tall (6’4″) Canadian (Mississauga, ON), righty who is pitching for the Cedar Rapids Kernels of the A-Full Season Midwest League. Balazovic was a 5th round prep choice in the 2016 draft by the Twins. So far this season, he’s cruising along through 3 starts (14.2 innings pitched). Similar to Mize, Balazovic’s K/BB ratio has been outstanding so far, posting a 26:3 K:BB ratio. That’s good for a 43.3% K-rate! FanGraphs Longenhagen and McDaniel summarized Balazovic like this: “He throws an unusually high number of strikes for such a lanky, young, cold-weather arm with a somewhat violent delivery, and he gets nasty vertical action on his breaking ball despite a mediocre spin rate.” So it sounds like Balazovic is a bit of an oddity, but whatever he’s doing this season is working for him. He’s repeating a season in A-Full ball again, but he’s also still only 20 years old. I think the Twins will likely move him up to the A+ Florida State League this season, but that might be a good assignment for him given the pitcher-friendly nature of the FSL.

Elieser Hernandez – 1.67 SSR Elieser was a Rule 5 pick by the Marlins in 2017, so he made his MLB debut last season, posting a 5.21 ERA in 65.2 innings of work (6 starts). He’s been dominant in his 3 AAA starts for the New Orleans Baby Cakes thus far in 2019, making me wonder if his MLB debut just came too early. This Venezuelan righty has posted a 1.23 ERA in 14.2 innings with a 27.9% K-rate in AAA in 2019. Because Elieser pitched in the MLB last season, there’s Statcast data! Here are his basics: Despite his below-average velocity and average spin rate on his fastball, Elieser still managed to limit damage via better than average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. This lines up with his pitch location chart courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net: You can see that Elieser prefers to work down in the zone with his fastball and slider, limiting damage. This also suggests to me that his fastball command might be a real weapon for him in the future. The changeup needs continued development, and will probably be the determining factor in whether he gets a rotation spot. He’s probably the next pitcher up for Miami this season. So keep your eye on who stumbles or gets hurt in the rotation. Elieser is worth a stash in deep dynasty formats or dynasty formats where you can move players up and down between the minors and your active roster.

Ljay Newsome – 1.58 SSR Newsome has already picked up one of our Farmhand of the Week awards early this season. He pitches for the Modesto Nuts of the A+ California League. The California League is generally considered one of the most hitter-friendly environments in all of baseball, but when considering park factors I like to look at this list published by Baseball America. In that article, BA’s Matt Eddy lists the park factors for each team in each league lined up with the 20-80 scouting scale. Here’s the California League: So you can see that, while the league as a whole plays up, Modesto actually has a pitching friendly environment for run scoring, HRs, and BABIP. So far this season, Ljay has made 1 start in hitter’s paradise Lancaster (2 HR allowed in 5 IP) and 3 starts between Modesto and Stockton (0 HR allowed in 19.2 IP). Ljay was a 26th round choice in the 2015 draft as a prep arm out of Maryland. His control has always been good, but his fastball has sat in the mid-80s his whole career. Until now. FanGraphs Longenhagen and McDaniel report his fastball velocity has taken a big leap: “Now, Newsome is different. He took part in an offseason velo program and now resides in the 91-94 mph range. He’s clearing his front side a little more, his two-seamer has more tail, he’s working up in the zone with his four-seamer more often, and is setting up his changeup better.” SSR is in agreement that Ljay might be a breakout pitcher to follow in 2019.

Zac Gallen – 1.54 SSR The second Baby Cake on this list. Gallen has been dominant in 4 AAA starts so far in 2019. He’s allowed 1 earned run in 25.1 IP with a 30.3% K-BB ratio. Unfortunately, the news is kind of out on Gallen already, and he’s likely getting stashed in all dynasty formats and even some deeper redraft formats as well. He came over to Miami as part of the package that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis. Sandy Alcantara, the other pitching prospect in the deal, seems to be further ahead of Gallen in terms of development. However, Alcantara has also really struggled starting at the big league level, despite a great initial outing to start the 2019 season. What’s been the difference for Gallen in 2019? Well, like Newsome, there are reports that his fastball velocity has seen an uptick. And also he’s just learning to command his full, varied arsenal. Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has credited Gallen as having a “kitchen sink approach.” He throws four pitches, each of which have the potential to be above average at varying times. It’s definitely a starting rotation profile. And if trade-mate Alcantara continues to stumble, we might be seeing how the profile plays in the MLB sooner rather than later.

Tommy Parsons – 1.50 SSR The SSR list is usually good at generating names I’ve never heard of before. Tommy Parsons is the first one of those for me on this list. Parsons hails from Columbus, OH, and was signed as a minor league free agent by the Cardinals organization in June of 2018. He went on to be named an Appy League post-season All-Star in 2018, going 5-1 in 9 starts (13 appearances) for the Johnson City Cardinals. Parsons also went 1-for-2 in save opportunities last season. Thus far in 2019, Parsons has strictly worked out of the rotation for the Peoria Chiefs, going 3-0 in 4 starts with a 0.30 ERA. On April 22, he pitched a complete game shutout against the Quad Cities River Bandits, throwing 102 pitches in the effort. His last 3 outings have went 8.0, 8.0, and 9.0 innings. Sure he’s 23 years old and pitching in the Midwest League. And his K-rate hasn’t been eye-popping (21.7% in 2019). But I’m still rooting hard for this kid who was pitching in unaffiliated ball last season to continue to have success while chasing his MLB dream.

Chris Vallimont – 1.50 SSR Big (6’5″, 220) right-hander was a 5th round selection out of D2 Mercyhurst University in Erie, PA. Vallimont has a sparkling 1.23 ERA in 4 starts for the Midwest League’s Clinton LumberKings. His success this season has been fueled by a very good 30.5% K-rate, and he’s also limited walks (7.3%) and home runs (1 HRA in 22.0 innings). It’s been a big jump from his 2018 professional debut, where he posted an ugly -2.3% K-BB ratio. Vallimont commanded a 5th round selection despite coming from a small school because his fastball sits mid-90s and he’s got the ability to dial it up a couple ticks from there. He’s reportedly worked with Driveline to improve his stuff. His high SSR rating suggests to me that he’s been able to command his arsenal well in 2019. If he can bring all that together, you’ve got yourself a nice little sleeper prospect that’s surely available in the vast majority of dynasty formats.

Tyler Phillips – 1.50 SSR This kid has just been really good so far in his professional career. Phillips has spent a lot of time atop various Baseball Farm leaderboards and got himself a nomination for our Farmhand Team of the Year at the end of last season. He seems to be picking up in 2019 right where he left off, starting again for the Down East Wood Ducks of the A+ Carolina League. He’s displayed impeccable control through 4 starts in 2019, walking just 1 batter and allowing 1 HR against in 24.2 IP. Phillips was listed on FanGraphs picks as a potential 2020 Top-100 prospect. Jeffrey Paternostro of Baseball Prospectus called Phillips overall profile “fringy at times” but also noted that his fastball is now capable of bumping 95 mph and he’s got the frame of an innings-eating, backend starter. 2080 Baseball’s John Eshleman describes him as having an “innings eating build” with a potential plus fastball but envisions him as a bullpen piece unless he develops a third offering. My personal take is Phillips deserves monitoring for development of his secondaries this season. If 1 or 2 of them come online, he can make a big leap in rankings and solidify himself as a future rotation piece. The fastball is already touching 95 and he’s obviously shown the ability to control it, even if the control is sporadic (BB% currently at 1.5%). I’m looking forward to picking up additional reports on him this season.

Devin Smeltzer – 1.50 SSR Smeltzer fits one of my favorite pitching prospect archetypes: the bespectacled funky lefty. He was a 5th round choice by the Dodgers in the 2015 draft out of San Jacinto JUCO in Texas. He was traded to the Twins organization as part of the Brian Dozier deal last summer. Smeltzer is now pitching for Pensacola of the AA Southern League, and has been dominant for the Blue Wahoos this season. Through 4 starts, Smeltzer has both a 0.72 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. His K-BB ratio is a stellar 27.3% and his FIP sits at 1.53. FanGraphs Longenhagen and McDaniel described Smeltzer as having “one of baseball’s funkiest deliveries.” Wilson Karaman of Baseball Prospectus projects Smeltzer as a likely LOOGY/middle relief option relying on his funky delivery and sweeping slider. Maybe more incredible than his performance thus far in 2019 is Smeltzer’s personal story. He is a pediatric cancer survivor. Here’s an incredible clip of him meeting Chase Utley again after Utley had signed an autograph for Smeltzer when he was a 10-year-old baseball fan going through cancer treatments: After Devin Smeltzer was diagnosed with cancer as a child, an autograph from his favorite player, Chase Utley, brightened his spirits. Now both men play for the L.A. Dodgers organization. @JoeFryer shares the story. pic.twitter.com/7rch7QYFF6 — NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt (@NBCNightlyNews) July 23, 2018

The SSR Top-200:

Rank Name SSR GS AVG 1 Casey Mize 1.72 3 4.3 2 Jordan Balazovic 1.67 3 4.0 3 Elieser Hernandez 1.67 3 4.0 4 Ljay Newsome 1.58 4 3.5 5 Zac Gallen 1.54 4 3.3 6 Tommy Parsons 1.5 4 3.0 7 Chris Vallimont 1.5 4 3.0 8 Tyler Phillips 1.5 3 3.0 9 Matt Manning 1.5 3 3.0 10 Devin Smeltzer 1.5 3 3.0 11 Tommy Milone 1.44 3 2.7 12 Taylor Varnell 1.44 3 2.7 13 Ryne Inman 1.44 3 2.7 14 Nick Ramirez 1.44 3 2.7 15 Matt Ball 1.44 3 2.7 16 MacKenzie Gore 1.44 3 2.7 17 Kris Bubic 1.44 3 2.7 18 Jean Carlos Mejia 1.44 3 2.7 19 Jake Latz 1.44 3 2.7 20 Hans Crouse 1.44 3 2.7 21 Grayson Rodriguez 1.44 3 2.7 22 Garrett Whitlock 1.44 3 2.7 23 Gabe Mosser 1.44 3 2.7 24 Eli Morgan 1.44 3 2.7 25 Darren McCaughan 1.44 3 2.7 26 Daniel Mengden 1.44 3 2.7 27 Blaine Knight 1.44 3 2.7 28 Bailey Ober 1.44 3 2.7 29 Alvaro Seijas 1.44 3 2.7 30 Alejandro Requena 1.44 3 2.7 31 Adrian Houser 1.44 3 2.7 32 Ricardo Sanchez 1.42 4 2.5 33 Joey Murray 1.42 4 2.5 34 Lucas Sims 1.38 4 2.3 35 Brusdar Graterol 1.38 4 2.3 36 Tyler Beede 1.33 4 2.0 37 Tim Cate 1.33 4 2.0 38 Tarik Skubal 1.33 4 2.0 39 Ryan Weathers 1.33 4 2.0 40 Packy Naughton 1.33 4 2.0 41 Jorge Alcala 1.33 4 2.0 42 Chase Cohen 1.33 4 2.0 43 Caleb Baragar 1.33 4 2.0 44 Beau Burrows 1.33 4 2.0 45 Austin Hutchison 1.33 4 2.0 46 Anthony Shew 1.33 4 2.0 47 Alex Fagalde 1.33 4 2.0 48 Will Stewart 1.28 3 1.7 49 Thomas Jankins 1.28 3 1.7 50 Steven Moyers 1.28 3 1.7 51 Scott Blewett 1.28 3 1.7 52 Perry DellaValle 1.28 3 1.7 53 Ofreidy Gomez 1.28 3 1.7 54 Jason Bahr 1.28 3 1.7 55 Enyel De Los Santos 1.28 3 1.7 56 Daniel Tillo 1.28 3 1.7 57 Cole Stapler 1.28 3 1.7 58 Zach Plesac 1.22 3 1.3 59 Zac Lowther 1.22 3 1.3 60 Zac Grotz 1.22 3 1.3 61 Yennsy Diaz 1.22 3 1.3 62 Xavier Altamirano 1.22 3 1.3 63 Tyson Miller 1.22 3 1.3 64 Turner Larkins 1.22 3 1.3 65 Travis Herrin 1.22 3 1.3 66 Tony Santillan 1.22 3 1.3 67 Tommy Wilson 1.22 3 1.3 68 Taylor Clarke 1.22 3 1.3 69 Tanner Tully 1.22 3 1.3 70 Tanner Myatt 1.22 3 1.3 71 Tanner Houck 1.22 3 1.3 72 Sterling Sharp 1.22 3 1.3 73 Shane McCarthy 1.22 3 1.3 74 Seth Corry 1.22 3 1.3 75 Ryan Rolison 1.22 3 1.3 76 Ryan Castellani 1.22 3 1.3 77 Rookie Davis 1.22 3 1.3 78 Ronald Bolanos 1.22 3 1.3 79 Rob Zastryzny 1.22 3 1.3 80 Reggie Lawson 1.22 3 1.3 81 Ranger Suarez 1.22 3 1.3 82 Ramon Rosso 1.22 3 1.3 83 Peyton Culbertson 1.22 3 1.3 84 Paul Campbell 1.22 3 1.3 85 Paul Blackburn 1.22 3 1.3 86 Patrick Sandoval 1.22 3 1.3 87 Nivaldo Rodriguez 1.22 3 1.3 88 Nestor Cortes Jr. 1.22 3 1.3 89 Mitchell Jordan 1.22 3 1.3 90 Michael Plassmeyer 1.22 3 1.3 91 Michael Byrne 1.22 3 1.3 92 Mason Thompson 1.22 3 1.3 93 Malvin Pena 1.22 3 1.3 94 Luis Gil 1.22 3 1.3 95 Logan Gilbert 1.22 3 1.3 96 Kyle Young 1.22 3 1.3 97 Kyle Kubat 1.22 3 1.3 98 Konnor Pilkington 1.22 3 1.3 99 Kohl Stewart 1.22 3 1.3 100 Kade McClure 1.22 3 1.3 101 Juan Hillman 1.22 3 1.3 102 JT Brubaker 1.22 3 1.3 103 Josiah Gray 1.22 3 1.3 104 Josh Winder 1.22 3 1.3 105 Jose Soriano 1.22 3 1.3 106 Jose Hernandez-Urquidy 1.22 3 1.3 107 Jordan Holloway 1.22 3 1.3 108 Jonathan Hernandez 1.22 3 1.3 109 John King 1.22 3 1.3 110 Johan Oviedo 1.22 3 1.3 111 Joey Wentz 1.22 3 1.3 112 Joey Cantillo 1.22 3 1.3 113 Joe Ryan 1.22 3 1.3 114 Joan Adon 1.22 3 1.3 115 Jesus Rodriguez 1.22 3 1.3 116 Jeronimo Castro 1.22 3 1.3 117 Jake Irvin 1.22 3 1.3 118 Jake Faria 1.22 3 1.3 119 Jackson Kowar 1.22 3 1.3 120 Griffin Canning 1.22 3 1.3 121 Gio Gonzalez 1.22 3 1.3 122 Garrett Schilling 1.22 3 1.3 123 Garrett Hill 1.22 3 1.3 124 Gabriel Ynoa 1.22 3 1.3 125 Francys Peguero 1.22 3 1.3 126 Foster Griffin 1.22 3 1.3 127 Erick Fedde 1.22 3 1.3 128 Efrain Contreras 1.22 3 1.3 129 Eduardo Vera 1.22 3 1.3 130 Dustin Beggs 1.22 3 1.3 131 Diego Cordero 1.22 3 1.3 132 Cristian Javier 1.22 3 1.3 133 Conner Menez 1.22 3 1.3 134 Cole Sands 1.22 3 1.3 135 Cody Poteet 1.22 3 1.3 136 Cody Deason 1.22 3 1.3 137 Cody Bolton 1.22 3 1.3 138 Clarke Schmidt 1.22 3 1.3 139 Chris Bassitt 1.22 3 1.3 140 Chi Chi Gonzalez 1.22 3 1.3 141 Cameron Bishop 1.22 3 1.3 142 Caleb Sampen 1.22 3 1.3 143 Bryan Sammons 1.22 3 1.3 144 Bryan Mata 1.22 3 1.3 145 Bryan Abreu 1.22 3 1.3 146 Brody Koerner 1.22 3 1.3 147 Brendan McKay 1.22 3 1.3 148 Brailyn Marquez 1.22 3 1.3 149 Brad Case 1.22 3 1.3 150 Blake Rivera 1.22 3 1.3 151 Austin Voth 1.22 3 1.3 152 Angel Rondon 1.22 3 1.3 153 Alexander Vizcaino 1.22 3 1.3 154 Alex Manasa 1.22 3 1.3 155 Alex Faedo 1.22 3 1.3 156 Adam Wolf 1.22 3 1.3 157 Wil Crowe 1.21 4 1.3 158 Parker Dunshee 1.21 4 1.3 159 Keury Mella 1.21 4 1.3 160 Dario Agrazal 1.21 4 1.3 161 Austin Gomber 1.21 4 1.3 162 Zach Haake 1.17 4 1.0 163 Williams Perez 1.17 4 1.0 164 Trey Supak 1.17 4 1.0 165 Tony Dibrell 1.17 4 1.0 166 Thomas Hatch 1.17 4 1.0 167 Thad Ward 1.17 4 1.0 168 Shane McClanahan 1.17 4 1.0 169 Sean Hjelle 1.17 4 1.0 170 Ryan Weiss 1.17 4 1.0 171 Riley O’Brien 1.17 4 1.0 172 Richelson Pena 1.17 4 1.0 173 Reiver Sanmartin 1.17 4 1.0 174 Patrick Murphy 1.17 4 1.0 175 Nate Pearson 1.17 4 1.0 176 Mike Shawaryn 1.17 4 1.0 177 Maximo Castillo 1.17 4 1.0 178 Lucas Gilbreath 1.17 4 1.0 179 Kyle McGowin 1.17 4 1.0 180 Kutter Crawford 1.17 4 1.0 181 Kevin Smith 1.17 4 1.0 182 Justin Donatella 1.17 4 1.0 183 Jhon De Jesus 1.17 4 1.0 184 Jeff Bain 1.17 4 1.0 185 Jasseel De La Cruz 1.17 4 1.0 186 James Marvel 1.17 4 1.0 187 Jake Woodford 1.17 4 1.0 188 Jake Buchanan 1.17 4 1.0 189 Emilio Vargas 1.17 4 1.0 190 Edgar Gonzalez 1.17 4 1.0 191 Dustin May 1.17 4 1.0 192 Duane Underwood Jr. 1.17 4 1.0 193 Daniel Corcino 1.17 4 1.0 194 Conner Greene 1.17 4 1.0 195 Clay Chandler 1.17 4 1.0 196 Cal Quantrill 1.17 4 1.0 197 Brady Rodgers 1.17 4 1.0 198 Blake Battenfield 1.17 4 1.0 199 Bernardo Flores 1.17 4 1.0 200 Ariel Jurado 1.17 4 1.0

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