Mitt Romney will become the 45th president, the author says. | JAY WESTCOTT/POLITICO Why Romney will win

Our two-year quest to elect a president will (mercifully) conclude next Tuesday. No more campaign stops in Ohio, no more 30-second attack ads, no more fundraising letters — well, those letters are likely to keep coming. But a cold, hard reading of the most important trends and numbers tells us that Mitt Romney will be elected America’s 45th president. Here are the reasons why.

The composition of the electorate favors the GOP: Polls by both Gallup and Rasmussen predict a partisan electorate modeled more closely after 2004 than 2008. In 2004, the GOP’s edge among self-identified Republicans and the larger category of “lean Republican” carried George W. Bush to a narrow win. In 2008, Democrats held a large partisan edge (Gallup plus-12, Rasmussen plus-7), and then-Sen. Barack Obama coasted to victory. While it was not uncommon for surveys earlier this year to find Democrats’ partisan edge approaching double digits, both pollsters now see an electorate evenly divided between the parties with a slight edge to the GOP due primarily to heightened Republican voter intensity. Other surveys still show an edge to Democrats, but the margins are down to 3 or 4 percentage points.


In addition, surveys by the Tarrance Group find Romney with a double-digit lead among independents , a group vitally concerned about the economy and job creation, precisely the Romney closing message in the campaign. For that reason, Tarrance partner Ed Goeas feels that this Republican advantage could actually grow as Election Day approaches, resulting in a potentially larger GOP victory than is now being forecast.

The GOP ground game rivals the Democrats’: This is a surprising finding of two national surveys (ABC-Washington Post and NBC-Wall Street Journal). The number of households that report being contacted by the respective campaigns is virtually even. It was generally assumed that Obama would outperform his poll numbers because of superior organization, but that may not be the case. A wave of intensity and enthusiasm is powering one of the strongest Republican voter contact programs ever. Given the president’s deficit in the national polls, this can mean only bad news for Obama .

Romney is winning on the key issues: While Americans find Obama better able to handle most issues (abortion, Medicare and education) and more in touch with them on key personal qualities (support for the middle class, likeability, etc.), Romney scores convincingly on the most important economic issues. The recent NBC-WSJ survey finds Romney leading on only three issues: handling the economy, reducing the deficit and creating jobs. These are also the issues that matter most to the overwhelming majority of Americans. Romney was able to hit Obama on the economy time and again in the debates, and the message has apparently hit home. If this election is “about the economy, stupid,” Romney is in very strong shape.

Romney has momentum: Momentum in politics is hard to describe, but real. It relates to people’s expectations, the tone of news coverage, the size of crowds and what is being talked about generally — and Romney’s prospects and expectations are clearly on the upswing. Prior to the first debate, Obama led national surveys by 3 to 5 percentage points. Today, Romney continues to maintain a narrow but real national lead. Growth in Romney support by just a couple points could put him over the top in most battleground states.

Support for a challenger running against a besieged incumbent normally exceeds poll numbers: No one thought Ronald Reagan would win 44 states and a popular vote majority against two opponents in 1980, or that Bill Clinton would defeat President George H.W. Bush as easily as he did in 1992. Last-minute deciders, though relatively few in number, are more likely to cast ballots for the challenger, thus expanding razor-thin leads into larger victories on Election Day.

There are still many factors that can affect this closest of elections. But the most likely outcome is for Mitt Romney to ride strong public dissatisfaction with the president’s handling of the economy to victory on Nov. 6.

Frank Donatelli is chairman of GOPAC, an organization dedicated to educating and electing the next generation of Republican leaders.