Iowa Poll: Support declines for Elizabeth Warren; most likely caucusgoers shy away from ‘big changes’

Kim Norvell | The Des Moines Register

Show Caption Hide Caption Iowa Poll: Here's how the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates fared November's closely-watched poll results indicate who voters might choose for the 2020 Iowa Caucuses. A new candidate leads the pack.

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Support for Elizabeth Warren as the first-choice Democratic presidential candidate has dropped six percentage points since September, according to a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Sixteen percent choose Warren as their top candidate, a drop from 22% in September, when she led the statewide poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers. In the November poll, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads the field with 25%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden are tied for third, at 15%.

Her decline in likely Democratic caucusgoers' support comes at the same time as a a majority of likely caucusgoers (52%) say they prefer a candidate who will "advocate for policies that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes they make aren’t as big." Thirty-six percent of caucusgoers want a candidate who will "advocate for policies that would result in big changes, even if they have a lower chance of becoming law."

Plans that bring big changes in government, health care and America's tax system are the crux of Warren's campaign — and the focus of criticism from her fellow contenders. Her campaign bus in Iowa has even been plastered with the words "Honk if you're ready for big structural change!"

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The poll of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted by Selzer & Co. Nov. 8-13. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is battling with Sanders for the hearts of liberal caucusgoers. Sanders leads with those who describe themselves as very liberal, 34% to 32%.

Twenty percent of poll respondents select Warren as their second-choice candidate, leading in that category and showing an underlying strength for her. Buttigieg is the second choice of 14% of respondents, and Sanders and Biden are each at 13%.

One indication of the liberal divide: Warren is the most popular second choice for Sanders' supporters (45%), and he's the most popular second choice for hers (39%).

But she also is the most popular second choice for Buttigieg supporters (28%).

When looking at a candidate's so-called footprint in Iowa, totaling his or her first and second choice support and those who are actively considering the candidate, Buttigieg leads the field with 68 percentage points. Warren is close behind at 66%, but she has dropped 5 percentage points since September.

More coverage from the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll:

A positive for Warren: 72% of her supporters say they will definitely caucus, the highest in the field. Sanders is next at 63%; Buttigieg at 60%; and Biden at 59%.

Pam Mace, a poll respondent and 61-year-old travel agent from Burlington, said she thinks both Buttigieg and Warren can look past Republican President Donald Trump's insults and focus instead on "what they're going to do to fix our country."

"With Elizabeth, she has strength in her as far as being able to take on issues quickly. And we need a good strong president to take things on," Mace said. "Not to say that (Buttigieg) can't either."

Mace said she likes Warren's plan to abolish private health insurance in favor of "Medicare for All" and Buttigieg's plan to increase funding at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and improve veterans' access to health care. She has not made a final decision for whom she will caucus.

About this poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 8-13, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses and 502 registered Republicans who are not planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,012 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list. For the registered Republican sample, responses for the 533 registered Republican contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active registered Republicans in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the sample of 500 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, as does the sample of 502 registered Republicans. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.

Kim Norvell covers Elizabeth Warren and growth and development for the Register. Reach her at knorvell@dmreg.com or 515-284-8259.

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