Shocking Quarter-Season Statistics Likely To Improve

Entering Week 5, most teams have already played a quarter of the season. While we can start to try to figure out what will stick from the first four weeks of the season, there are still a number of things that will change between now and the end of the year.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few shocking statistics from the first quarter of the season, how they’re likely to change, and what it means for the teams involved.

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Philadelphia’s Sack Rate

The Philadelphia Eagles had a lot of turnover on the defensive line, but despite the losses of players like Michael Bennett and Chris Long, the Eagles stayed deep at the position. The Eagles believed they had a deep enough rotation on the edge and the interior that a pass rush could still be generated. But then injuries occurred and more losses were felt. Free agent signing Malik Jackson was injured in Week 1 and is now on injured reserve. Timmy Jernigan is out for multiple weeks with a broken foot.

With those injuries, Fletcher Cox has been given less help than expected in the middle of the line and that has put a lot of responsibility on the edge rushers to generate the pass rush. Through four weeks, the Eagles only have a 1.7% sack rate, which is the lowest in the league.

However, that isn’t likely to last long. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles are fifth in defensive pressure rate with pressure on a third of opposing drop backs. Philadelphia also ranks sixth in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate metric, which measures how often a team wins a pass rush snap within 2.5 seconds.

What is perhaps a positive sign that might not sound like one is there is no standout pass rusher by win rate. It’s not like the Eagles are reliant on just one player to create pressure. Brandon Graham is the closest to that with a 14.8% pressure rate per SIS. That is fifth among DE/LB with at least 100 pass rush snaps this season.

It’s a rate also tied with Vinny Curry, who is the third rusher in the rotation and has played just over a third of the Eagles’ defensive snaps. If there’s a bit of a disappointment so far, it’s Derek Barnett, who has played around 75% of the defensive snaps but has a pressure rate of 8.5%, which is 24th of 33 DE/LB with at least 100 pass rush snaps.

Still, the Eagles as a team have been able to create pressure and sooner or later those pressures are going to turn into sacks without much else changing in the process.

Aaron Rodgers’s deep ball

There is still a disconnect somewhere in the Green Bay Packers offense. This still remains a team that starts out well then gets progressively worse as the game goes on. Per Football Outsiders, the Packers have the third-best offensive DVOA in the league in the first quarter. That drops to 10th in the second quarter, 18th in the third quarter, and 27th in the fourth quarter.

Some of this can be put on the quarterback play once the scripted plays are over. Aaron Rodgers is just 15th in QBR, 18th in passing Expected Points Added, and 23rd among 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in positive play rate, per SIS.

Part of this is a lack of connections on deep shots. Not all of that can be placed on the quarterback, though. Per SIS charting, Rodgers has been on-target on 74.1% of passes thrown 15 yards or more past the line of scrimmage, which is tied with Dak Prescott for the highest on-target rate of those passes among 34 quarterbacks with at least 10 deep attempts. However, Rodgers’s completion percentage on those throws is only 44.4%. Compare that to Prescott’s which is 59.3% on the same rate of catchable passes.

That 29.7% on-target to completion rate difference is the second-highest among those qualified quarterbacks, behind only Josh Rosen. Rosen hasn’t been incredibly accurate on those throws (his 47.8% on-target rate ranks 28th) but he’s still been better than his 17.4% completion rate would suggest.

If the Packers can connect on a few more deep passes for big plays — and the numbers suggest those opportunities are there — it could instantly open the offense up. It’s a good bet that more of these throws will be completed in Green Bay throughout the remainder of the season and that could be trouble for the rest of the league.

Cowboys defensive interceptions

With all the attention given to Dallas this season, the smallest bit of it has focused on the secondary. Even in the long-term contract discussions that revolved around Demarcus Lawrence, Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, and Amari Cooper, cornerback Byron Jones was always the last name brought up. Jones has quietly become one of the league’s better cornerbacks and he’s currently 14th among 67 qualified cornerbacks in yards allowed per play. He’s a big part of a Dallas secondary that has gone under the radar. The Cowboys currently rank eighth among defenses in Adjusted Yards allowed per pass attempt.

Through all that, though, the Cowboys have not been able to force many turnovers. Dallas has just one interception on defense and its 0.6% interception rate is tied for the third-lowest in the league, behind only the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos, two teams with zero interceptions.

It’s not as if Cowboys cornerbacks have just been getting beat without a chance on the ball. Dallas ranks fifth in passes defensed with 20. That’s more passes defensed than the New York Giants (15), who somehow lead the league in interceptions with five.

The Cowboys have also been charted with four dropped interceptions by Sports Info Solutions. You could say there is a reason defensive backs play that position and wide receiver, but it’s just as likely with the number of opportunities Cowboys defenders have been given, those chances are eventually going to turn into interceptions.

Dallas has already been a good defense without picking off passes and once those start coming, the Cowboys could really do some damage as a team. Right now the Dallas offense is third in both yards and points per drive, despite having the third-worst starting field position among offenses. More interceptions will help out the defense, but will also give this offense more short fields to work with.

Baltimore’s play-action success

Entering the season, the Baltimore Ravens were believed to be an offense structured around running the ball and beating teams on play-action. Some of that has been true. The Ravens are first in rushing DVOA through four weeks while Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson rank second and third in rushing EPA among all players.

Baltimore is also using a heavy dose of play-action in the passing game. Their 30% play-action rate is sixth among all teams. What is surprising is how the play-action pass hasn’t been as effective for the Ravens as many expected it would be. Baltimore has averaged just 6.1 yards per play on play-action passes, which ranks 26th in the league, per Football Outsiders. But the Ravens are first in yards per play on non-play-action passes with an average of 8.6 yards.

After all the discussion of Lamar Jackson’s ability as a drop back passer, not only are the Ravens succeeding there, they’re the best in the league on straight drop backs. That should give confidence in the eventual improvement on play-action. Jackson also averaged 9.1 yards per attempt with play-action last season, per SIS, so it’s not as if he has struggled there previously.

The Ravens are still going to use a play-action-heavy game plan and it’s hard to imagine based on previous PA success and the current success on straight drop backs that the Ravens won’t get that part of the passing game clicking. Once they do, an offense that already ranks sixth in passing DVOA is going to be even harder to stop.

Odell Beckham Jr.’s receiving production

No unit got more hype in the offseason than the Cleveland Browns’ offense. The development of Baker Mayfield mixed with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. in Freddie Kitchen’s offense was supposed to turn the Browns into legitimate contenders. That idea had a rough start for the first three weeks and then got back on track in Week 4.

But even as the Browns started to find their footing on offense, they did so without Beckham being heavily productive. Through four weeks, Beckham is 12th in targets, 28th in receptions, and 18th in receiving yards. He’s gotten into the end zone just once, on a long slant, catch, and run against the New York Jets that looked like he was back with the Giants.

Despite the raw numbers not being where many would have hoped, the opportunity is still there. That target number shows the Browns are still working to get Beckham involved and those passes have come in meaningful areas of the field. Per Next Gen Stats, Beckham is 15th among wide receivers and tight ends in the percentage of team air yards. That’s a metric that combines how deep and how often players are getting targeted in the structure of their offense and is a good predictor of future performance.

Success in other areas of the passing game will help Beckham, too. In this week’s 1st and 10, we noted how the Ravens completely sold out to stop Beckham, playing closer to him off the line than any other Browns receiver and doubling him when possible — one instance led to the open Ricky Seals-Jones touchdown catch.

With more weapons producing, not every team is going to focus that hard on Beckham and when better opportunities come along, he’ll be able to take advantage. Even in a worst-case scenario, he’s always a danger to take a simple slant to the house on any play.