A few notes:

NASHVILLE FOLKS: A reminder that I will be at the Nashville UofM Alumni Club’s preseason kickoff happy hour this Thursday from 5:00-7:00 at Frisky Frog’s. I will talk football and life, two things I am not good at but have watched others do for many years. This is the second in a two-part preview of the slate of Michigan’s 2018 opponents. You can find Part 1 here. h/t to Hockeybear for the header image. You have something in your teeth. Because there is no Iowa, The Rock will be assigned after Week 1.

Wisconsin

Last year: 13-1 (9-0 B1G), lost Big Ten Championship Game to Ohio State, Beat Miami (YTM) in the Orange Bowl 34-24.

Recap: I keep waiting for Wisconsin to do something.

Be bad at something. Be amazing at something. Have a fantastic protagonist, or a devious antagonist. Experience an amusing scandal (not, repeat NOT a scandal like the current Quintez Cephus thing). Have your large coach get too sensitive about a naked doppelganger schtupping a shark. SOMETHING.

No, instead, Wisconsin just keeps doing the same shit year after year. Double-digit wins. Efficient but largely milquetoast offense featuring a bellcow running back following a mammoth wall of plump yet deceptively mobile white dudes. Just enough ball-throwin’ to make native Wisconsinites uncomfortable. Stout defenses ostensibly led by a cavalcade of prettyboy linebackers but really anchored by three down lineman who could have occupied the entire Persian army at Thermopylae and sent the other 297 dudes home. Fat kicker. Big Ten West champs. Lose in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Last year, they were extra Wisconsin, which is somehow both more and simultaneously less on-brand. The defense took a step forward from “pretty good” to “on par with the best in the country,” and the Badgers went 12-0 in the regular season… before they lost the Big Ten Championship Game. Because Wisconsin.

When last we saw them: When Wisconsin had the ball, the two teams played a fantastic, competitive football game. When Michigan had the ball… Wisconsin quickly got the ball back. Michigan only surrendered 325 yards (a good chunk of which came after Michigan lost Brandon Peters and everyone kinds knew the game wasn’t gonna end well and the air left the balloon) and 17 offensive points, but only put up 234 yards and 14 points. Michigan still hasn’t won in Madison since 2001.

Alex Hornibrook: calmer than most would be under similar circumstances (Fuller)

This team is as frightening as: Running out of Pabst. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Wisconsin’s Large Adult Son offensive line might be the best in the country.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has beaten Wisconsin in 6 of the last 7 in Ann Arbor, including 2008, which still cannot be explained by Wisconsin’s greatest scientists.

Pictured: Wisconsin’s greatest scientist

When they play Michigan: OPE, SORRY MY LEFT GUARD JUST RAN YA OVER THERE. ‘SCUSE ME WHILE MY RUNNING BACK SCOOTS AROUND YA.

First game: vs. Western Kentucky, 9:00 Friday, ESPN

AFTER THE JUMP: We dream an impossible Rutgers dream.

Michigan State

Last year: 10-3 (7-2 B1G), Beat Washington State in the Holiday Bowl 42-17

Massive Disclaimer: So. Since the last time we spoke about Michigan State, That Whole Thing happened. This puts us all in an awkward spot, where we can’t ignore it (unlike, say, the leadership of an entire state university for more than a decade), but we also don’t want to minimize it by making it a part of our usual juvenile ramblings. Michigan State football has their own issues issues issues issues issues, and those are fair game, but these particular failings of the Athletic Department and the MSU leadership are too abhorrent to joke about, and I’m not nuanced enough of a writer to walk that line safely. So, for the time being, we’re probably not going to address That Whole Thing in the context of Opponent Watch. If you’re interested, I’ve posted a more detailed commentary on the procedural, moral, legal, and ethical implications raised by this entire situation. May the Sparty statue tip over, and may it fall squarely on John Engler’s underwhelming genitals.

Recap: Michigan State brought their 2-year record back up to 13-12. Which is fine, I suppose.

However, it’s still hard to look at the numbers and point out exactly *why* they were so much better. They were outgained on a per-play basis and outscored in aggregate in their ten games against Big Ten opponents and Notre Dame, yet they went 7-3 in those contests. State was led by a surprisingly awesome defense (#4 in S&P+), the best turnover margin in the Big Ten in conference play, and some sort of pact with Poseidon. But given their offensive struggles, how the hell did they win ten games?

The best explanation I have is two-fold. First, Michigan State probably wasn’t as bad as their record in 2016 (and may not have been quite as good as their record indicated in 2017), so the overall gap between seasons the two wasn’t as great as it appeared. The other explanation is a derivation of the Ewing Theory: that they ditched some talented players who were also team cancers. And while I won’t name any names, the most prominent examples rhyme with Ron Jeschke and Malik McDowell.

Michigan State returns most of the important pieces from their 2017 resurgence, including Brian Lewerke. And for a Big Ten East team, their schedule is pretty favorable: Michigan and Ohio State at home, no Wisconsin, no Kinnick.

When last we saw them: Both teams swam hard.

This team is as frightening as: Your pissed-off little brother wielding a baseball bat. He remembers your history, and he remembers it in the fighty-est way possible. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Rumors of Michigan State’s death were greatly exaggerated, especially now that State has apparently cleaned up so many of their locker room issues.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Oh, hey Jon. Whatcha doing here?

When they play Michigan: Just a hunch, but Michigan State fans will probably replay the 2015 fumble once or twice.

First game: vs. Utah State, 7:00 p.m. Friday, BTN

Penn State

Last year: 11-2 (7-2 B1G), Beat Washington in the Fiesta Bowl 35-28

Recap: Penn State was reeeeeally close to the College Football Playoff in 2017, as their two losses were by a combined 4 points. The first was a 39-38 loss to Ohio State after holding an 11-point lead with five minutes left (now, if you take a deep dive into the numbers, a win in this game would have been significantly luckier/less likely than their win over OSU in 2016, which was basically a Rube Goldberg machine triggered by a magical unicorn fart over an open flame… but at the end of the day, scoreboard is scoreboard). The following week, Penn State had a 14-7 lead and was generally controlling play against Michigan State before a THREE HOUR AND TWENTY-THREE MINUTE rain delay dropped, after which Sparty papayaballed their way to the upset. Still, they come into 2018 having won 20 of their 23 games since Michigan beat them by 39 points, which is a heck of an improvement for a team that went 32-26 from JoePa’s firing until that game they lost to Michigan. By 39 points.

People have spoken at great lengths about the turnover Penn State will have to deal with on offense this year, but that is overblown to an extent. True, Saquon Barkley is gone. But Miles Sanders is stylistically – if not Kryptonianly – similar to Barkley. They lose DaeSean Hamilton, but they return Juwan Johnson. They lose a couple of offensive linemen, but the offensive line kinda sucked anyway, at least relative to their running game success. They lose Mike Gesicki, but for as good as Gesicki was as an offensive weapon, he was equally Nerf-like as a blocker.

The real offensive turnover to watch will be the transition from Joe Moorhead to new OC Ricky Rahne. Penn State’s offense, and especially the passing offense, thrived in the two years under Moorhead. In the six years before that, they did not.

When last we saw them: Penn State beat Michigan by 29 points. Which is a lot. It’s not quite 39, of course. But it’s still a lot.

This team is as frightening as: A team that beat you by 29 points, but who you beat by 56 points in the three games before that. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Penn State’s defense was every bit as good as its offense. They surrendered the 5th fewest points per game against FCS competition of any team in the country, more than two points per game better than Michigan.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan will almost literally not face the 2017 Penn State defense. They lose their entire secondary (three of whom were selected in the NFL Draft), linebackers Jason Cabinda and Brandon Smith, and defensive tackles Cothran, Corthren, Cothrun, and Crorthrarn. Since the start of fall practice, they also lost defensive ends Ryan Buccholz and Torrence Brown to medical retirement, and DE Shane Simmons was recently spotted in a walking boot.

When they play Michigan: Tuddies will be in short supply.

First game: vs. Appalachian State, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Rutgers

Last year: 4-8 (3-6 B1G), no bowl game but HEY LOOK AT YOU GUYS WINNING GAMES.

Recap: Rutgers wasn’t good. Rutgers wasn’t even okay. But Rutgers wasn’t as terrible as they could have been.

Sure, they only won one game over a Top 113 team (a 14-12 home win over Purdue). Sure, they lost five conference games by 20+ points (which is actually MORE than in 2016). And sure, out of 130 FCS teams they ranked #126 in S&P+ offense, #128 in offensive explosiveness, #125 in passing S&P+ rating, #121 in scoring, #129 in yards per pass, #128 in yards per play, #129 in yards per game, #129 in first downs per game, #118 in 3rd Down Conversion %, #129 in plays of 10+ yards, #129 in plays of 20+ yards, #119 in plays of 30+ yards, #125 in plays of 40+ yards, and #121 in plays of 50+ yards.

BUT!

Rutgers’ defense rose from #115 to #52 nationally in S&P+. They still gave up a higher-than-the-national-average number of yards and points, and they faded down the stretch (giving up 41 and 40 points to two really bad offenses in Indiana and Michigan State). But, hey, progress! Their bend-but-don’t-break defense wasn’t great, but it was a lot better than the previous bend-briefly-and-then-break-and-then-get-orange-slices philosophy.

So, today we introduce… QUICK LANE BOWLQUEST!!!!!!!!!!

There are seven winnable* games on Rutgers’ schedule: Texas State, Kansas, Buffalo, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, and Northwestern. Win six, and you can play, like, Wake Forest or NC State. C’mon Rutgers. We believe in you**.

*for a certain definition of winnable

**no we don’t

When last we saw them: Rutgers improved their scoring margin against Michigan by an astounding 57 points compared to 2016, and gained nearly FIVE TIMES as many yards as in the previous matchup. Again: progress.

This team is as frightening as: Koopa Troopas, but when they start hopping instead of just walking. They’re better… yet still not. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: They have half of half of a team: their back seven is somewhere between “decent” and “synonym for decent.”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: You need to score points to win games, and Rutgers has scored two offensive touchdowns against Michigan in the last three years. And both of the guys who scored those touchdowns only are gone. And their leading returning wide receiver had 62 yards receiving last year. And they held Eastern Michigan to 16 points… and still lost.

God I forgot how hard it is to narrow down your Hilarious Rutgers Statistical Thing.

When they play Michigan: I hope they have that 6th win sewed up. Cuuuuuz…

First game: vs. Texas State, noon, BTN

Indiana

Last year: 5-7 (2-7 B1G), no bowl game.

Recap: Alas, poor Indiana! I knew him, dear Reader, a fellow of infinite #CHAOS, of most excellent hurry-up-no-huddle. He hath borne my Saturday noon slates on his back a thousand times, and now, how abhorred in my imagination it is! My gorge rises at it. Here hung those offenses that I have watched I know not how oft. —Where be your tunnel screens now? Your quick fades? Your mauling nimble offensive linemen? Your flashes of offensive pace that were wont to set the Big Ten Network on a roar? Not one now to mock your own crazy shootouts? Quite Debord’d? Now get you to my offensive coordinator’s chamber and tell him, let his playbook be an inch thick, to this crappiness he must come. Make him laugh at that.

There is nothing either good or bad, but Hoosiering makes it so.

In 2015, Indiana finished with the nation’s #11 offense. In 2016, that number fell to #67, but while injuries destroyed the Indiana running game, the passing game was still efficient (#23 in the country in efficiency, #2 in the Big Ten in YPA). Last year, Indiana dropped to the #97 in the nation, and their passing game was approximately equal to Michigan’s. And, if you recall, Michigan’s passing offense was not great.

I’d say hiring Mike DeBord isn’t working out, but that sort of implies there were other possible outcomes.

When last we saw them: Indiana’s offensive wetfartitude notwithstanding, Michigan and Indiana once again played a stupid, stupid game that, once again, Michigan won. Michigan completely shut Indiana’s offense down all day, and had a 20-10 lead with 4 minutes left, and somehow the game ended 27-20 in overtime. Karan Higdon ran for 200 yards on 25 carries… and John O’Korn threw for 58 yards on 20 attempts.

So, add this one to the pile of randomness we put together last year:

2009: The Tate Forcier busted shoulder helicopter touchdown game (36-33)

2010: The last-possession-is-gonna-win Denard last minute touchdown game (42-35)

2013: The Jeremy Gallon 7,000 yards receiving/Nonplussed Michigan Girl game (63-47)

2015: The Jake Rudock six touchdown double-OT game (48-41)

2016: The sno’Korn bowl

2017: The doh’Korn bowl

This team is as frightening as: Don’t make me make you The Rock, Indiana. Not you.

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: You know the old saying: it’s always hard to beat a team 23 times in a row.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana’s defense was very good, but they lose the core of their defense, both literally and figuratively. They lose tackle Nate Hoff, linebackers Tegray Scales and Chris Covington, and safety Chase Dutra. They also lose Rashard Fant on the outside. It is unlikely the Hoosier defense maintains its 2017 form.

When they play Michigan: HEY LOOK ANOTHER STUPID GAME.

First game: at (???) Florida International, 7:00 p.m., CBSSN

Ohio State

Last year: 12-2 (8-1 B1G), Won Big Ten Championship Game, beat USC (YTUSC) in the Cotton Bowl, 24-7

Recap:

Here we go. Hope this helps clarify everything said today by Urban Meyer about Zach Smith, what happened and what Meyer knew https://t.co/R6olt5eLfc — Doug Lesmerises (@DougLesmerises) July 24, 2018

“I was never told about anything. I never had a conversation about it. So I know nothing about it. The first I heard about that was last night. And I asked people back at the office to call and see what happened and they came back and said that they know nothing about it…

After now digesting it, praying on it… I think we handled it right.”

Those two statements are fundamentally irreconcilable. If you think you handled it right, why did you feel the need to lie about it? And don’t give me this “wasn’t prepared for the question” crap. When you aren’t prepared for a question, you bumble the answer in a Tim Beckman word salad. You don’t fabricate an alternate universe where you knew nothing and heard nothing and sent people out into the world to ask about this who also heard nothing. There is a legal concept known as “consciousness of guilt”: if you lie to hide it, you know you are doing something wrong.

Urban Meyer is not the reason Zach Smith beat his ex-wife. But Urban Meyer is the reason Ohio State Wide Receiver Coach Zach Smith beat his ex-wife.

“Zach Smith is the guy who beat his wife, not Urban” is a fantastic red herring. Yes, Zach Smith beat Courtney Smith. Abusers abuse. Wife-beaters beat their wives. They don’t seek permission. But Urban Meyer knew. He knew about the events of 2009. He knew about the events of 2015. And he continued to employ Zach Smith in 2012. And 2013. And 2014. And 2015. And 2016. And 2017. And 2018.

Beyond that, is there greater cover for an abuser than to be protected by your boss who happens to be the most powerful figure in the institution paying your salary? Meyer was in a position of tremendous leverage over Zach Smith. He chose instead to condone and enable his behavior. And it wouldn’t have cost Meyer ANYTHING to do the right thing. He had all the political capital in the world, and you could throw a rock in a junior high dance and hit a better wide receiver coach than Zach Smith.

Ohio State doesn’t have to fire Urban Meyer. But Ohio State can fire Urban Meyer if they want.

You never have to fire someone; even if they give you cause to fire them, you can keep a terrible employee as long as you want (see: Zach Smith had a job for six years). But you can always fire someone. “Cause” is simply a matter of damages and payouts. If Ohio State decides they don’t want Urban Meyer to be their coach anymore, they don’t need “cause.” They don’t need a report. They don’t need a conviction or a confession or a referendum. They can simply decide that the highest paid public employee in the state of Ohio apologizing for domestic abuse, covering for a domestic abuser, and lying to taxpayers, fans, and alumni about it is unacceptable. But they can also decide that winning football games is more important than any of that.

Gee, I wonder what they will choose.

When last we saw them: Just freeking once can we reach the end of this godforsaken game with a healthy quarterback.

This team is as frightening as: Getting beaten and then having BuckeyeLover4EVA18773 publicly call you a liar because something something Brett McMurphy. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Do I really have to fill out this section?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe karma exists?

When they play Michigan: Karma doesn't exist.

First game: vs. Oregon State, noon, ABC