Pepe, Bruno Alves and Coentrão

With the arrival of the New Year comes the anticipation of great things ahead for the Portuguese National Team. Despite the U20 and U21 squads failing to obtain silverware in the summer of 2015, there is an ever-growing belief that this generation could end Portugal’s long wait for a major tournament trophy. But of course, Portugal’s “old guard” still has a point to prove as well. Cristiano Ronaldo, João Moutinho, Fábio Coentrão, and Pepe are the backbone of a squad that is only in the initial phases of rebuilding. But what combination of players, young and old, look most likely to shine next summer in France?

Seleção correspondent Nathan Motz has spent the last four months observing Portuguese talent in Spain, Germany, France, Turkey, and of course, Portugal. Join him as he assesses the individual performances of key players during the first half of the 2015-16 season in a three-part series beginning with a look at Portugal’s goalkeeping and defensive options.

As is the case every time Portugal qualify for a major tournament, it is an inevitable reality that not every player will be selected to compete in France, even some who have played quite well for their club sides. Hence, this review will focus primarily on those players who have the best opportunity for selection, especially those that already have some experience playing for Portugal.

Though purists will often demand that more emphasis be placed on those players who are in the best form for their respective clubs, experience with the Seleção usually matters more. Even so, it is a commonly held belief, at least among fans, that young players should be given opportunities even at the expense of older but diminishing talents.

Therefore, it is prudent to point out here that this idealized method of player selection is not congruent with how modern football managers choose their squads. Team strategy, individual player performance evaluated in context, the player’s tactical utilization at their host club, maturity, durability, and other factors are of far greater significance than priming the next generation. This is especially true in the build-up to a major tournament, which means that those players who have already featured regularly for the Seleção will always have more of an advantage, regardless of how fans may feel about that.

Goalkeeper

With this in mind, we begin the individual analysis by considering Portugal’s options at goalkeeper where at this point it seems unreasonable that Rui Patrício should lose his starting position. Under Jorge Jesus, Rui Patrício has allowed only 7 goals in 14 matches with 7 clean sheets in the Liga NOS. But against Europa League opposition, Patrício conceded 11 goals in 6 matches. The case could be made, however, that Sporting’s back-four may have hurt Patrício statistically, especially when you consider the example of their defeat during Champions League qualifying against CSKA Moscow. Sporting had the tie won at halftime of the second leg in Moscow when Teo Gutierrez put them up 3-1 on aggregate only for the Russians to tear them apart in the second half. This result, and others like it in the Europa League, offers some context that seems to indicate that Sporting’s defence might be more to blame than Patrício himself. Elsewhere, Beto’s knee injury has all but taken him out of the picture, while Anthony Lopes looks to be the best option as a substitute having allowed 34 goals in 25 total matches with 10 clean sheets for Olympique Lyonnais so far this term.

Patrício, while not a game-changer perhaps, remains a solid performer and our best option at keeper with one caveat: he needs a strong defence in front of him.

Fullbacks

In this category, there exists a diversity of options at various levels of career development all across Europe. Beginning in the English Premier League, Cedric Soares will fancy his chances of securing at least a substitute’s role after making 16 appearances in all competitions in his first season in England. Though not always a first choice for Southampton, Cedric has generally performed well, but lacks the full range of attacking threat of some of Portugal’s other fullback options. To be fair, the rampaging fullback model is not in as high demand in the EPL as it is in other leagues. At Southampton, his role is therefore more subdued than it would be if he were plying his trade in Spain, for example. Ultimately, Cedric’s opportunity may depend on whether Fernando Santos wants an attack-minded threat or a defensively sound option at right back. But considering that there are other options at right back capable of bombing forward and delivering crosses with greater effect, Cedric will likely have to settle for a substitute role if he maintains his current form.

In Spain, João Cancelo has had a most impressive season at Valencia thus far, playing in 20 matches (including Champions League competition) scoring twice, and notching three assists. His overall play, however, is what really sets him apart. Young and with pace to spare, Cancelo regularly demonstrates his desire to break free down the left, often after emerging the victor in 1-v-1 contests. Cancelo’s speed enables him to recover defensively even after supporting the attack, and he is every bit as proficient with his crosses into the box as he is with the ball at his feet. After assessing his overall ability, considering his age and the La Liga and Champions League opposition he regularly faces, I would rate him so highly that only Fábio Coentrão and Vieirinha get the nod ahead of him for a starting eleven berth for the Seleção. At the very least, he should have a leading role to play at the Olympics in Brazil if he stays healthy.

Coentrão, despite rumours to the contrary, has looked very sharp for Monaco, but has struggled with some injuries this season that have limited his playing time. The impact that he has on the Ligue 1 club is substantial, however, as he has already scored twice and recorded an assist in 11 total matches. Against Marseille, Coentrão almost single-handedly won a vital point for Monaco by creating two of their three goals as well as wreaking havoc down the left wing in support of the attack. In spite of his injuries, Coentrão has shown this season that he still possesses the all-important blend of physical endurance, a relentless work ethic, and tactical intelligence. As it appears more and more likely that Cristiano Ronaldo will be employed as a number 9 for Portugal, Coentrão’s responsibility to support the attack grows ever-more crucial.

The former Benfica man is in his prime, and if healthy will be a lynchpin for the Seleção, just as he was at Euro 2012.

Staying in France, two other options for Fernando Santos to consider are Ricardo Pereira and Raphael Guerreiro. Both are versatile players and often feature at both fullback and on the wing for their clubs. Pereira has been called up before by Santos, but not as regularly as Guerreiro, who continues his relatively good form at Lorient. Even so, the image of both of these players may be hurt by their age and their lack of participation in continental competition (i.e. UEL or UCL). In years past, this might not be significant, but there are now other options at their position who compete in higher-tier competition such as Cedric and Vieirinha (Wolfsburg). The good news for Pereira is that he should have an opportunity to impress at the Olympics in Brazil whether in defence or as an attacking midfielder.

Speaking of Vieirinha, the 29 year old, despite missing 8 matches through injury, has scored two goals and chipped in three assists for Wolfsburg already, including the finishing touch on an elegant team movement against Manchester United to secure a knockout round berth. Vieirinha was used primarily as a right back last season, but has been played more commonly on the right wing since returning from a muscular problem in October. There is some doubt as to how well this postures him to find a place in Santos’ final lineup since two of Ronaldo, Nani, Quaresma, Danny, Gelson Martins, and Bernardo Silva will likely have the wing positions locked down. Nevertheless, he remains one of the few Portuguese players at any position that will still be playing Champions League football in the New Year. If he maintains his current form, he will certainly be in France with the Seleção in some capacity.

Meanwhile, Eliseu, despite being the target of most fans’ derision, has played consistently enough for Benfica that he will likely remain in contention for at least a substitute role. His teammate, Andre Almeida, is the only other capped fullback (outside of the injured Nelson Semedo) that might realistically be in contention for Euro 2016, but his inclusion would almost certainly be as a substitute. The 25 year old has 3 assists this season in 15 matches, including UCL appearances. Antunes has contributed 2 goals and an assist for a Dynamo Kyiv side that progressed out of a tough UCL group, but his inclusion appears unlikely as Santos has not called him up since the meaningless friendly against Cape Verde in March 2015.

Centrebacks

As for Portugal’s options at centreback, Santos appears to be opting for the steady hand of experience with 37 year old Ricardo Carvalho and 32 year old Pepe the front-runners for a place in the starting lineup. Of the two, Pepe has been less consistent this season with Raphael Varane providing stern competition for a place in Real Madrid’s starting eleven. But his tactical discipline is clearly valued by Benitez to balance out the more free-ranging style of Varane or Sergio Ramos. If he does start alongside Ricardo Carvalho, their positional awareness will be crucial as both lack recovery speed. Ideally, two centrebacks with contrasting strengths offer greater value, but Santos has yet to employ a younger, more mobile option except in friendly matches.

Bruno Alves and José Fonte have also played consistently enough to be considered. Fonte in particular has had a strong season yet again, even showing his goal-scoring threat in the recent match against Arsenal by outmuscling his marker and heading in a corner in the 4-0 drubbing of Arsene Wenger’s men. Luís Neto and Paulo Oliveira both have an outside chance to make the squad if injuries or an unexpected loss of form occurs. Neto will also be playing UCL football in 2016 while Oliveira’s odds are hurt by his lack of experience with the Seleção and Sporting’s exit from the UCL. Still, strong performances for Sporting in the UEL will likely see him called up for the Olympics in Brazil. At 34, Bruno Alves has accumulated 21 appearances for Fenerbahce and looks on track to become at least a reserve option.

In summary, Portugal’s defence should be fairly strong on the outside of the pitch where several versatile fullbacks are playing relatively well across Europe. If we safely assume Coentrão is fit to play LB at Euro 2016, it is likely that a more defensive option will be employed at RB. But the 4-3-3 depends upon strong play from the wing, and if Ronaldo becomes our central striker, our wingers alone might not be able to sustain the offensive threat necessary to overcome stubborn defences.

Furthermore, and with all due respect to Pepe and Carvalho, the centre of our defence will be a concern heading into Euro 2016. Aside from José Fonte perhaps, there is a real speed deficit that offers little confidence when you consider the strikers that they may potentially face at this tournament. For example, if Portugal wins its group, a clash with Belgium and Romelu Lukaku or Christian Benteke awaits, and these are strong, mobile finishers that may make our older centrebacks look cumbersome. Meanwhile, younger players like Neto or Paulo Oliveira simply have not been given the opportunity to become viable options for the Seleção. Other alternatives, such as Tiago Illori, have dropped off the radar entirely at this point. Illori’s loan deal at Aston Villa was a resounding failure with zero appearances and a decision by club management to send him back to Liverpool early.

Based on the current form of Portugal’s defenders, expect Santos to continue his conservative, defensive posture. This also makes sense considering the attacking players that Portugal has at its disposal, who are mostly built for smash-and-grab style raiding as opposed to more patient, possession-based attacks that wear down the opposition. All of this favors a fullback set in the mold of Fábio Coentrão and physical centrebacks that possess an aerial threat on set pieces. The latter part of this equation could become a problem if Carvalho or Pepe are unable to continue their good form, and as is the case in other areas of the pitch, this tournament looks to have come just a little too soon for Portugal's youth to confidently take over.

Stay tuned for the next part in this series which will examine Portugal’s midfield talent from Bernardo Silva and João Moutinho to Nani and Ricardo Quaresma. Happy New Year!

by Nathan Motz