Larry J. Sabato is university professor of politics and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which publishes the online, free Crystal Ball politics newsletter every Thursday, and a contributing editor at Politico Magazine. His most recent book is The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy.

Rick Perry isn’t the only one who’s had “oops” on his lips. All of us who try to predict election results never fail to be slack-jawed as some of the returns come in.

On the evening of Nov. 4, political experts will once again be astonished by at least a few of the outcomes—either the identity of the winner or the size of the victory. Despite all the polling, modelling, research, solid intelligence and keen prognostication existing today, there will still be surprises on election night that confound us and challenge what we thought we knew.


They wouldn’t be shockers if we could identify 2014’s bombshells months in advance, so your guess is as good as mine. But they have occurred every election year, and hindsight is perfect. Can we get some hints about this November by examining the surprises of yesteryear?

We’ll stick to statewide general elections for Senate and governor, even though there are plenty of eyebrow-raising results in party primaries (Sen. Dick Lugar’s loss in 2012), off-season special elections (Scott Brown’s triumph in early 2010) and U.S. House races (a good half-dozen of them every election year). But these are somewhat different animals. Turnout can be low or skewed to one side more easily, and reliable public polling may be less frequent or nonexistent.

Take a glance at the chart below of 30 upsets that occurred in the last six national elections, 2002 to 2012. (Did we miss any? Email us at [email protected] and we’ll cite them in the Crystal Ball.) Some of these are more stunning than others, but in every case, much of the political intelligentsia either thought the winners wouldn’t make it across the finish line—at least at this point in the election (mid-September)—or that the final outcome would be considerably closer than it turned out to be.

The chart also suggests some reasons—more art than science—for each upset, from gaffes and scandals to the president’s unpopularity and everything in between.

November Surprises

Year State Office Winner % Loser % What happened? 2002 MN SEN Norm Coleman 49.5% Walter Mondale 47.3% Death of Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) in plane crash 12 days before election, last minute substitution of ex-VP Mondale (D). Reason for outcome: 8 MO SEN Jim Talent 49.8% Jean Carnahan (I) 48.7% Death of Democratic nominee Gov. Mel Carnahan in Oct. 2000 plane crash but elected over Sen. John Ashcroft (R) anyway in 2000. Widow Jean Carnahan (D) appointed to seat, lost to better pol, Rep. Talent (R). Reason for outcome: 1, 5, 8 NJ SEN Frank Lautenberg 53.9% Doug Forrester 43.9% Sen. Robert Torricelli (D) stepped aside Sept. 30, 2002, because of scandal allegations and impending loss; last-minute sub, ex-Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), wins. Reason for outcome: 7, 8 MD GOV Robert Ehrlich 51.6% Kathleen Kennedy Townsend 47.7% Lt. Gov. Kennedy Townsend (D) flopped, Rep. Ehrlich (R) became first GOP MD governor since Spiro Agnew in 1960s. Reason for outcome: 1 OK GOV Brad Henry 43.3% Steve Largent 42.6% Gary Richardson (I) won 14.1%; cockfighting ban referendum drew large turnout of D rural voters, who backed Henry. Reason for outcome: 3, 8 2004 SD SEN John Thune 50.6% Tom Daschle (I) 49.4% Bush reelection landslide in SD helps Thune beat Senate Minority Leader Daschle. Reason for outcome: 5 NH GOV John Lynch 51.0% Craig Benson (I) 48.9% Unpopular Benson first one-term governor seeking reelection to lose in 78 years; Lynch support mirrored that of Democratic POTUS nominee John Kerry in NH. Reason for outcome: 1, 5 2006 MO SEN Claire McCaskill 49.6% Jim Talent (I) 47.3% Democratic wave, deep Bush unpopularity. Reason for outcome: 4, 6 MT SEN Jon Tester 49.2% Conrad Burns (I) 48.3% Democratic wave, deep Bush unpopularity, and Burns' gaffes. Reason for outcome: 1, 4, 6 OH SEN Sherrod Brown 56.2% Mike DeWine (I) 43.8% Democratic wave, deep Bush unpopularity. Reason for outcome: 4, 6 PA SEN Bob Casey, Jr. 58.6% Rick Santorum (I) 41.3% Democratic wave, deep Bush unpopularity; Casey wins landslide over two-termer Santorum. Reason for outcome: 1, 4, 6 RI SEN Sheldon Whitehouse 53.3% Lincoln Chafee (I) 46.3% Tough primary, Democratic wave, deep Bush unpopularity cause liberal Republican Chafee to lose. Reason for outcome: 2, 4, 6 VA SEN Jim Webb 49.6% George Allen (I) 49.2% Democratic wave, deep Bush unpopularity, plus Allen's "macaca" controversy. Reason for outcome: 1, 4, 6 2008 MN SEN Al Franken 42.0% Norm Coleman (I) 42.0% Dean Barkley (I) wins 15.2%, may have pulled more from Coleman; Obama margin in state; lengthy recount gives Franken 312-vote win. Reason for outcome: 3, 4, 5, 8 NH SEN Jeanne Shaheen 51.6% John E. Sununu (I) 45.3% Obama and party sweep; GOP factionalism. Reason for outcome: 2, 4, 5 NC SEN Kay Hagan 52.7% Elizabeth Dole (I) 44.2% Dole's frequent absence from state, plus Obama won NC. Reason for outcome: 1, 4, 5 OR SEN Jeff Merkley 48.9% Gordon Smith (I) 45.6% Blue tide in 2008 swept Smith out of office. Reason for outcome: 4, 5 2010 AR SEN John Boozman 57.9 Blanche Lincoln (I) 36.9% GOP wave, Obama unpopularity, Democratic division from primary challenge to Lincoln. Reason for outcome: 2, 4, 6 CO SEN Michael Bennet (I) 48.1% Ken Buck 46.4% Bennet survives thanks to Buck's gaffes and his conservatism. Reason for outcome: 1 IL SEN Mark Kirk 48.0% Alex Giannoulias 46.4% Even Obama's IL succumbs to GOP wave. Reason for outcome: 1, 2, 4 NV SEN Harry Reid (I) 50.3% Sharron Angle 44.5% Reid survives thanks to Angles gaffes and her conservatism. Reason for outcome: 1 PA SEN Pat Toomey 51.0% Joe Sestak 49.0% Sen. Arlen Specter switched parties but lost Democratic nomination to Sestak. Toomey rode GOP wave to narrow win. Reason for outcome: 2, 4, 6 WI SEN Ron Johnson 51.9% Russ Feingold (I) 47.0% GOP wave drowns three-termer Feingold. Reason for outcome: 4, 6 ME GOV Paul LePage 38.1% Eliot Cutler 36.4% Liberal independent and Democrat split 55.5% of vote, yielding Tea Party/GOP win. Reason for outcome: 3, 4 2012 IN SEN Joe Donnelly 50.0% Richard Mourdock 44.3% Mourdock ousts six-term Sen. Dick Lugar (R) in primary, but Mourdock’s gaffes produce Democratic win despite Romney victory in IN. Reason for outcome: 1, 2 MA SEN Elizabeth Warren 53.7% Scott Brown (I) 46.2% Miracle 2010 winner Brown falls to overwhelming Obama margin. Reason for outcome: 4, 5 MO SEN Claire McCaskill (I) 54.8% Todd Akin 39.1% McCaskill ripe for defeat, but Akin's gaffe about rape gave her second term. Reason for outcome: 1, 3 MT SEN Jon Tester (I) 48.6% Denny Rehberg 44.9% Rehberg proved a dud in this race, reelecting Tester despite solid Romney victory in MT. Reason for outcome: 1, 3 ND SEN Heidi Heitkamp 50.2% Rick Berg 49.3% Despite Romney rolling in ND, Heitkamp narrowly wins as superior candidate against first-term Rep. Berg Reason for outcome: 1 VA SEN Tim Kaine 52.9% George Allen 47.0% Newly blue VA voted Democratic for POTUS and Senate, again just like in 2008. Reason for outcome: 4, 5 WI SEN Tammy Baldwin 51.4% Tommy Thompson 45.9% Ex-Gov. Thompson lost his once-magic touch; solid Obama win elects Baldwin. Reason for outcome: 1, 4, 5

Reason for outcome 1. Poor candidate/candidate gaffes (15)

2. Party factionalism (6)

3. Independent/Third-party candidacy (5)

4. Party wave election (18)

5. Presidential popularity/high job approval/coattail (10)

6. Presidential unpopularity/low job approval (9)

7. Scandal (1)

8. Bizarre circumstances (5)

Three of the last six elections (2006, 2008 and 2010) generated classic party waves, and a tidal sweep for one party or the other substantially contributed to nearly two-thirds of the winners of the 30 contests listed. Of course, each tide mainly pulled in candidates who had run superior campaigns and already positioned themselves to take advantage of a wave. Republicans still hope for a big wave in 2014, though— as I’ve argued previously—there is none yet on the horizon. The likeliest outcome in the Senate is that the Republicans win by a seat or two mainly because the party has an extraordinarily good map with a large majority of the competitive races being held in red states. (To qualify as a real wave, an election should have one party winning substantial territory normally dominated by the other party.) As for governorships, they are also subject to national forces, but these elections are naturally state-centric and more idiosyncratic; there will be switches and surprises in both parties’ directions.

In explaining past upsets, a candidate’s weaknesses are just as important as strengths—maybe more so. Nominees who were inclined to gaffes created opportunities on which their opponents capitalized. Women’s reproductive expert Todd Akin (R-Mo.) was the most prominent 2012 example. So far at least, Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) has made 2014’s most meaningful blunder, by virtue of his so-called “ farmer insult” in a farm state, proving campaign trail mistakes belong to no single party—but Braley is now slightly leading his Republican opponent, Joni Ernst, so it may not matter.

We’re just beginning the intense round of debates; each and every forum is an opportunity for a campaign-ending misstep— just ask Richard Mourdock. In addition, politicians often save some damaging research findings about the opponents until the final weeks of the election—although unexpectedly, just one race on my list, the 2002 Senate contest in New Jersey, featured scandal as a principal factor in an upset. Sen. Robert Torricelli (D) withdrew at the end of September after receiving illegal contributions from an individual with ties to North Korea. In a controversial move that had to be approved by the state supreme court, Democrats substituted former Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who then defeated Republican nominee Doug Forrester. Polls showed that Forrester would likely have beaten Torricelli, so Republicans insisted they had been robbed of a Senate seat.

Presidential coattail in White House election years is a factor in about a third of the upsets I’ve listed. Coattail is a shorthand way of summarizing the party base’s excitement and willingness to turn out and cast ballots for all candidates of the president’s party (or that of a non-incumbent White House nominee). President George W. Bush was a major factor in one 2004 race, the tight South Dakota face-off between then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) and former Rep. John Thune (R), which the latter won. President Obama clearly assisted the victories of nine Senate Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Another third of these examples exhibits the flip side of presidential coattail, when the incumbent president is unpopular at midterm, thereby costing his party some offices. Six Republican senators in 2006 lost their seats in large part because of President Bush’s low job approval ratings. It was President Obama’s turn in 2010, as Obamacare and other controversies contributed to the loss of six Democratic Senate seats, in addition to Scott Brown’s win. Republicans are again counting on Obama approval numbers in the low 40s (and low 30s in some states with hot Senate races) to produce turnovers in 2014.

Factionalism is a recurrent theme in many state parties, and the battle between the establishment and the Tea Party wings has made the GOP more vulnerable on this score of late. Usually, fratricidal divisions can be smoothed over for the general election, but occasionally the rifts are too deep, so electoral disaster occurs. After Mourdock defeated Senator Lugar in the 2012 Republican primary in Indiana, many Lugar voters never came on board for the aforementioned nominee Richard Mourdock—understandable since he proved a clumsy, tone-deaf candidate who unwisely opined on pregnancy from rape as “something God intended.” The result was a switch to the Democrats, with Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) gaining a six-point edge over Mourdock even while Mitt Romney was taking the state over President Obama by a 10-point margin.

We can see factionalism operating in a number of states this year, but perhaps none so boldly and unexpectedly as in rock-ribbed Republican Kansas. Incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback (R) alienated many members of his own party by targeting some moderate GOP legislators for defeat, and he enraged Democrats and less conservative Republicans with deep tax cuts that have had a serious impact on state government. Although the GOP is dominant in Kansas and thus Brownback might be able to secure a second term in the end, he is struggling and is no better than tied at the moment with Paul Davis, the state House minority leader.

On the Senate side, veteran Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts (R) couldn’t even muster 50 percent in his primary against a Tea Party political novice weighed down by plenty of baggage. Now he faces a general election contest with a well-funded independent, Greg Orman. The Democrat in the contest, Chad Taylor, tried to drop out in early September, and may still win the court battle to have his name removed from the ballot. Whatever happens, his action has clarified the choice for voters. It isn’t obvious which party a Senator Orman would caucus with—he’s said he’ll caucus with the majority party if that party already has a clear majority without him, but he’s less clear on what he would do if he’s the swing member of the Senate—but national GOP money is being diverted to rescue an incumbent senator who should have been able to consolidate support, but hasn’t. For the moment, Kansas Republicans are as divided as any state GOP in the nation, and that’s not a good place to be just weeks before Election Day.

Another instance of Republican factionalism can be found in the Frontier State. Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell (R), who thought he was secure in his reelection bid, now has a real race. An independent candidate with Republican roots, Bill Walker, formed a fusion ticket with Byron Mallott, who had been the Democratic gubernatorial nominee but agreed to run as Walker’s lieutenant governor. Some polls have Parnell in trouble against this bipartisan combo, though Walker has gotten off to a rough start.

If Orman and Walker win their elections, expect more moderate, hybrid tickets where one of the two major parties might not have a formal nominee in 2016.

Factionalism can be a problem for Democrats, too. It cost the party the Maine governorship in 2010, and possibly will again. Tea Party Republican Paul LePage won the statehouse with just 38 percent of the vote, while two much more liberal candidates together accumulated 55 percent. Eliot Cutler, a former Democrat running as an independent, took 36 percent and the official Democratic nominee, Libby Mitchell, received 19 percent. (Another independent got 5 percent.) Although 2014’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Michaud, who currently represent’s Maine’s 2nd congressional district, may rate as a slight favorite, he faces both Governor LePage and Cutler—a recipe for another close, plurality election.

Finally, totally unforeseen circumstances occasionally intrude in a campaign season, transforming reality. In addition to the Torricelli withdrawal mentioned earlier, the campaign of 2002 featured three more elections in this category. Two were the consequence of terrible tragedies. Just 12 days before the election, two-term Sen. Paul Wellstone (D), his wife, daughter and five others were killed in the crash of a small plane taking him to attend a funeral in Minnesota. Grieving Democrats scrambled to nominate a replacement, and they chose former senator and Vice President Walter Mondale—a well-qualified selection but someone who had been out of office since 1981 and had lost all states but his own in the 1984 presidential contest. Wellstone had been thought to be narrowly ahead of Republican nominee Norm Coleman, but Coleman won the election against Mondale by two points.

Another small plane crash two years earlier had killed Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) of Missouri as he was campaigning against Sen. John Ashcroft (R) for a Senate seat. Democrats nominated the widow, Jean Carnahan—although her husband remained on the ballot and she was actually appointed by the new governor after Ashcroft lost to a dead man in November. The sympathy factor had faded by 2002, and Carnahan herself was not the politician her late spouse had been; she lost the seat to Republican Rep. Jim Talent in 2002.

Then there’s perhaps the only statewide election ever tipped by the issue of cockfighting: the Oklahoma’s peculiar 2002 gubernatorial contest between Democrat Brad Henry (D) and Republican Steve Largent (R). That’s right, cockfighting: Largent, a former congressman (he resigned to focus on his gubernatorial campaign) and ex-professional football player, was judged the clear favorite in this very conservative state, but a referendum to ban the blood sport of cockfighting was on the November ballot. While the referendum won by 12 points, it lifted turnout in the heavily rural and southern Democratic counties in eastern Oklahoma. At the time, conservative Sooner Democrats often stuck with their party for offices below the presidency, and Henry carried this area handily. The Democrat received just enough of a turnout boost to edge Largent by less than one point. An independent candidate, Gary Richardson, won a substantial 14 percent and took votes disproportionately from Largent.

Independents cost several other listed candidates an election. Sometimes it can be a Libertarian drawing disproportionately from the Republican nominee; GOP analysts believe that was the case in Montana in 2012, when Libertarian Dan Cox got 7 percent while incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) won a second term over Republican Denny Rehberg by less than four points. (Romney took the state in a landslide but provided little or no coattail.)

On a few occasions, independents fare even better. Dean Barkley, an ally of independent ex-governor Jesse Ventura, who appointed Barkley to fill out the remaining two months of Paul Wellstone’s Senate term in 2002, garnered 15 percent (437,505 votes) in the 2008 Senate election. This was the year when Democrat Al Franken ousted Sen. Norm Coleman by a mere 312 votes, so Barkley was a big factor in the race ( exit polls indicated that Barkley hurt both major party candidates, but probably Coleman a bit more).

With seven weeks to go before this year’s election, there’s plenty of time for bizarre circumstances to develop again, as well as additional candidate gaffes and more factional in-fighting that can turn contests upside down in a hurry. While this is looking like a fairly typical midterm election, one that will be tilted somewhat to the out-of-power White House party due to Obama fatigue, it may not turn out to be so cut-and-dried.

It’s always wise to remember that electorates can be fickle. Conditions can change suddenly. And radically and candidates operating on too little sleep may find their tongues disconnected from their brains. All this, and more, will produce the upsets of 2014 that we’ll talk about for years to come.

And if the 2014 results turn out to be cut-and-dried, with no surprises despite this history lesson, well then … oops.