There goes that scare: Antarctic Peninsula cooling by almost 1 degree

Don’t panic now, but all the coal burnt in China has been cooling the Antarctic Peninsula.

For the last twenty years, The Antarctic Peninsula was the poster-peninsula for the Global Worriers as they calculate how many meters the oceans will rise when it melts, but all across it, temperatures are going down, not up.

We can knock half to one degree off:

This cooling has amounted to a 0.5 to 0.9 °C decrease in temperatures in most of the Antarctic Peninsula region, the only exception being three stations located in the southwest sector of the peninsula that experienced a slight delay in their thermal turning point, declining only over the shorter period of the past decade.

Thanks to CO2Science: The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists

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The start points matter. The cooling started after 1998, which was an El Nino, and we can see there was a similar downward slope from 1983 to 1993. As usual, with a climate graph, there are steps and stairs, and there is a trend up in the last 50 years (but probably down in the last 7,000).Whatever.

What there isn’t, most definitely, is a trend that fits carbon emissions.

Not that the media seem to mention that. Here’s The Independent, UK, March 2nd, 2017:

The Antarctic Peninsula is among the most rapidly warming areas of the planet, with temperatures having increased by almost 3C over the last 50 years.

There also isn’t a trend that fits the climate models which told us it would be the most rapidly warming place on Earth. From CO2Science — other studies also came to the same conclusion:

However, in recent years two studies have challenged this assessment. Carrasco (2013) reported finding a decrease in the warming rate from stations on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula between 2001 and 2010, as well as a slight cooling trend for King George Island (in the South Shetland Islands just off the peninsula). Similarly, in an analysis of the regional stacked temperature record over the period 1979-2014, Turner et al. (2016) reported a switch from warming during 1979-1997 to cooling thereafter (1999-2014). And now, in 2017, we have a third assessment of recent temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula confirming that the canary is alive and well!

No hockeystick happening there then.

h/t to GWPF

REFERENCE

Oliva, M., Navarro, F, Hrbácek, F., Hernández, A., Nývlt, D., Pereira, P., Ruiz-Fernández, J. and Trigo, R. 2017. Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere. Science of the Total Environment 580: 210-223.

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