FULL DRAW 🖨

** Tsonga is out, to be replaced by a lucky loser.

Full Printable Draw PDF 🖨 (Singles)

Full Printable Draw PDF 🖨 (Doubles)

DRAW TL;DR

Top Half - QF’s If Seeds Hold

🇷🇸 Djokovic vs Del Potro 🇦🇷

🇨🇭 Federer vs Thiem 🇦🇹

Bottom Half - QF’s If Seeds Hold

🇩🇪 A.Zverev vs Tsitsipas 🇬🇷

🇪🇸 Nadal vs Nishikori 🇯🇵

PROJECTED PATHS FOR TOP 4

Djokovic (1) (Top Half)

R1: Bye

R2: Dimitrov/Fritz

R3: Cecchinato/Schwartzman

QF: DelPotro/Kyrgios/Cilic

SF: Federer/Thiem/Fognini

F: Nadal/Zverev

Summary: Tough-ish draw on paper. Dimitrov is very short on form but always a threat if he shows up (and beat Djokovic in Madrid, for the first time, back in 2013). Cecchinato or Schwartzman (in poor form) could be somewhat difficult, but I’d expect Djokovic to come through pretty routinely. Novak’s quarter final opponent is probably one of the better ones out of the top guys, especially given Del Potro’s complete lack of matchplay this year, Kyrgios’s apparent dislike of clay and Cilic’s poor form. But that’s where Djokovic’s luck runs out. The Serb will likely face one of the two clay form players (Thiem/Fognini) or Federer in the Semi’s. Not ideal for Novak, but it would still be surprising to see anything less than SF’s from him.

Federer (4) (Top Half)

R1: Bye

R2: Gasquet/Davidovich Fokina

R3: Monfils/Goffin

QF: Thiem/Fognini

SF: Djokovic

F: Nadal/A.Zverev

Summary: A path that looks like a bit of a nightmare starting with the quarters. The one silver lining is that Federer can at least ease himself back into clay court matchplay vs a struggling-for-fitness/matchplay Gasquet, or a very inexperienced (and possibly fatigued given his run in Estoril) Davidovich Fokina. If Monfils makes it through to R3, that could be a nasty early test for Federer, however it’s not certain that Monfils is 100% fit after his achilles injury that put him out of Indian Wells. Things only get tougher from there for Fed, barring some huge upsets in his quarter and half.

Zverev (3) (Bottom Half)

R1: Bye

R2: Ferrer/Bautista Agut (RBA)

R3: Coric/Pouille/DeMinaur

QF: Tsitsipas/Munar/Khachanov

SF: Nadal

F: Djokovic/Federer/Thiem/Fognini

Summary: OK draw, although with Zverev’s current form, he could probably be upset by a Bye. RBA or Ferrer in Rd 2 could be interesting (Ferrer possibly playing his last match), but if Zverev can find at least part of his game (big ‘if’) he should come through against either on this surface. Zverev’s most likely R3 opponent would be Coric (Pouille currently playing challengers to gain confidence after a woeful past few months, and De Minaur playing just his 2nd match since coming back from injury), which would be a battle in current form. Zverev should like his QF opponents relative to other quarters though, with Tsitsipas the most intriguing by far of all those potential matchups. The German is defending title points here (1000pts), but given his recent performances it’s tough to say whether he’ll crash out in the 2nd Rd, or if he’ll finally string some momentum together after a slow start to the season.

Nadal (2) (Bottom Half)

R1: Bye

R2: Auger-Aliassime

R3: Kohlschreiber/Basilashvili/Tiafoe

QF: Nishikori/Wawrinka/Medvedev

SF: A.Zverev/Tsitsipas

F: Djokovic/Federer/Thiem

Summary: Apart from a very intriguing potential Rd 2, this is a good draw for Nadal. An early match vs Auger-Aliassime would be fascinating, although the young Canadian has to make it past his slightly older compatriot (Shapo), and FAA hasn’t yet beaten Shapovalov on the main tour or at Challenger/Futures level. Things heat up at the QF stage, with a potential meeting vs Nishikori (who nearly beat Nadal in the final here in 2014), Medvedev (one of the form players this clay season, or Wawrinka (who’s a bit of a wild card at the moment). Nadal should be very pleased to see Zverev or Tsitsipas as a potential SF opponent instead of Federer, Thiem, Fognini etc, who are all on the other side of the draw. If Nadal picks up where he left off vs Thiem in Barcelona, anything other than a final+ would be surprising.

EARLY MATCHES TO WATCH OUT FOR 🔥

🔥 - Potentially Good

🔥🔥 - Potentially Great

🍿 - GRAB THE POPCORN

—

Rd 1’s:

Schwartzman vs Cecchinato 🔥🔥

Kyrgios vs Struff 🔥

Auger-Aliassime vs Shapovalov 🍿

Coric v Pouille

Fognini vs Edmund

Ferrer vs Bautista Agut (RBA) 🔥 (possibly Ferrer’s last match)

Munar vs Khachanov

Pella vs Medvedev 🍿

Basilashvili vs Tiafoe 🔥

—

Rd 2's (possible):

Djokovic vs Dimitrov 🔥🔥

Federer vs Gasquet/Davidovich Fokina 🔥

Cecchinato vs Tsonga 🔥🔥

Cilic vs Kyrgios 🔥

Monfils vs Goffin/Fucsovics

Coric vs De Minaur

A.Zverev vs Ferrer/RBA 🔥

Nishikori vs Simon 🔥

Medvedev vs Wawrinka 🍿

Nadal vs Auger Aliassime 🍿

—

Rd 3’s (possible):

Djokovic vs Cecchinato/Tsonga/Schwartzman 🔥

Kyrgios/Cilic vs Del Potro

Federer vs Monfils 🔥🔥

Fognini vs Thiem 🍿

Tsitsipas vs Munar 🔥🔥

Coric vs Zverev 🔥

Nishikori vs Wawrinka/Medvedev/Pella 🔥

PLAYERS REACT TO THEIR DRAW

— Medvedev checking out his path to the Quarter-Finals:

Rd 1: Pella

Rd 2: Wawrinka

Rd 3: Nishikori

QF: Nadal

—

Tsitsipas realising he probably won’t have to play Medvedev:

TFW when you have to pick a quarterfinalist out of this lot, so you end up choosing Kyrgios on clay:

— Federer and Thiem watch the draw unfold.

— Incoming Rd 2?

Most of the players on tour when they realise they may have to retire Ferrer in his last ever tournament:

— Bautista Agut:

— Federer and Nadal going for yet another “coffee” to talk about the “state of tennis”.

PREDICTIONS

Quarter-Finals

🇷🇸 Djokovic vs Kyrgios (this is v questionable) (H2H: 0-2) (1st Meeting On Clay)

Prediction: Djokovic in 2

🇨🇭 Federer vs Thiem 🇦🇹 (H2H: 2-3) (Clay H2H: 0-1)

Prediction: Thiem in 3

🇬🇷 Tsitsipas vs Coric 🇭🇷 (H2H: 1-0) (Clay H2H: 1-0)

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3

🇪🇸 Nadal vs Wawrinka🇨🇭 (H2H: 17-3) (Clay H2H: 7-1)

Prediction: Nadal in 3

Semi-Finals

🇷🇸 Djokovic vs Thiem 🇦🇹 (H2H: 5-2) (Clay H2H: 2-2)

Prediction: Thiem in 3

🇪🇸 Nadal vs Tsitsipas 🇬🇷 (H2H: 3-0) (Clay H2H: 1-0)

Prediction: Nadal in 2

Final

🇪🇸 Nadal vs Thiem 🇦🇹 (H2H: 8-4) (Clay H2H: 7-4)

Prediction: Thiem in 3

(A Djokovic vs Nadal final probably more likely)

Bonus: Why Federer Chose Madrid For His Clay Comeback.

Serves are simply more effective In Madrid (due to 667m of altitude).

Over the last 7 years (2012-2018), Madrid had:

The highest Ace Rate avg

The lowest Return Pts Won avg

The lowest Breaks Per Match avg

These figures may be a more reliable indication of court speed, or more accurately 'serve/return friendliness', than the Court Pace Index (which has Madrid as as slow, or slower, than the other clay events).

Of course, Roger may just like visiting the Prado ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You can see all of this broken down in TheRacquet court speed data.

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GAME, SET & MATCH👋

— The Racquet is created, and written, by Matt.

— You can find me on Twitter here.

See you on Monday for the start of the Madrid Coverage! 🙌