Apr 22, 2014

Three simultaneous developments were still needed to clarify the Syrian regime’s orientation on what President Bashar al-Assad described as a big turning point in the course of events.

The first development was the collapse of the last pockets of armed opposition in the Qalamoun border area near Lebanon; the second development was the intensification of the mortar shelling on the capital from the nearby suburbs of Damascus; and the third development was the bombing by the Jordanian air force on April 16 of a convoy of gunmen belonging to Syrian opposition groups.

What is the link between the three developments and Assad’s claim that the events in Syria have turned? Clearly, the answer lies in that the fall of Qalamoun has protected the back of the regime’s forces in the west. The Jordanian bombing of opposition gunmen indicates that Damascus can rest assured about its southern underbelly. And the coincident shelling of the capital shows that the gunmen are in a state of siege in their last position in East Ghouta. All this can be considered a countdown that regime forces are heading to those towns, after the regime has gained control over the western border with Lebanon and is reassured about its southern border with Jordan.

In this context, it has become known that military units loyal to the regime launched an assault on East Ghouta days ago, which led to their gaining control of the town of Maliha east of Damascus. Maliha is a relatively small village, but it has strategic importance as it is located in the center of ​​East Gouta. Thus, regime units have in effect split the gunmen positions into two sections: the first is north of the capital, where two battles were expected soon against the main gunmen strongholds in Harasta and Duma, and the second is south of Damascus, starting from Jaramana down to Daraa near the Jordanian border.

Al-Monitor has received information from Syria that there will soon be developments on these fronts whereby regime forces would move to control opposition positions at these locations. According to the information, the biggest confrontation with East Ghouta will happen in Duma. However, the power balance emanating from the recent fighting, particularly since the fall of Qusair in June 2013, Yabrud in March 2014 and then the rest of Qalamoun could constitute a continuous wave of collapses in the ranks of the armed opposition in East Ghouta.