FOR decades those with any ambition in Nova Scotia, the most populous of Canada’s four Atlantic Provinces, have had to head west in search of work. But instead of following friends to the Alberta oil patch, Sarah Snow, a 31-year-old single mother, plans to stay at home in Halifax, Nova Scotia’s capital, when she graduates next year as a welder. It is not just that “you can’t smell the ocean out there,” as a friend put it. It is also that, after almost a decade of economic stagnation, Nova Scotians spy a boom.

Energy giants like Royal Dutch Shell and BP are spending more than $1 billion looking for oil in deep waters. The electric utility is backing a big power project linking Nova Scotia with Newfoundland and Labrador. In 2011 Canada’s government chose a local shipyard, Irving Shipbuilding, as the preferred contractor to supply the navy with 15 frigates and up to eight Arctic patrol boats worth perhaps C$25 billion ($25.4 billion).

In a city that has been a naval base for more than 250 years—Captain James Cook supervised the building of the original naval yard—the promise of at least three decades of shipbuilding work, creating thousands of well-paid jobs, is particularly welcome. Some hope that Nova Scotia could eventually shed its status as a “have-not” province, meaning it receives transfers from the federal government each year to pay for public goods and services. House prices in Halifax have risen by almost 9% in the past 12 months.

The euphoria looks premature. Oil has not yet been found. The power project, which involves a hydroelectric dam in Labrador and over 1,000 kilometres (625 miles) of transmission line (210km of it underwater), could prove too costly. And Irving Shipbuilding is still negotiating the terms of the naval contract.

Canada’s Conservative government has already changed its mind once about what ships it wants for the Arctic; jousting between the navy and the coastguard could prompt it do so again. Even if a contract is signed, it may not be proof against a change of government. In 1993 a Liberal administration cancelled a C$4.8 billion contract awarded by its Conservative predecessor to replace ageing Sea King helicopters (still flying today).

But even if some of Nova Scotia’s grander hopes are dashed, opportunities are opening up nearby. Offshore oil, onshore mining, and the planned dam have created a mini-boom in nearby Newfoundland and Labrador, just a ferry ride across the Cabot Strait.