Amid the rumors of the Bill O’Brien’s potential sacking at the conclusion of whatever post-season run the Texans can muster, I decided to revisit a post I made some years ago regarding Rick Smith’s drafting ability.



Below you'll find my results, replete with armchair-QB commentary and factual errors, I'm sure.

If you're like me and enjoy reading draft profiles on players, I've got you covered: just click the player name to be taken straight to the player's respective draft profile!

The rest of the formatting should be fairly straightforward, but let me clarify the "Still in League?" column:

It says... BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN?! Yes (S) He's a regular starter! Yes (NS) On a roster, but not 1st string. Yes (NA) On a roster, but normally not active. Yes (IR) On a team, but placed on IR. No He's riding the couch.

The "Grade" in the tables below are based on the player’s performance while with the Texans. Improvement or regression with another team isn’t taken into consideration.

The "Objective" Grade (with objective in quotes because it's objectively based on my own individual subjective player ratings) assigns each letter grade a value, adds them together, and averages them. The problem with this grade is that one strong player (J.J. Watt or DeAndre Hopkins) can offset an otherwise garbage draft. In reality, drafting one strong player doesn't excuse 8 other horrific picks.

The Subjective Grade takes that into account. It's my "gut feeling" grade of the draft that year. Blown picks, weak/strong picks, reaches and steals, etc. is all taken into consideration with this grade.

So without any further ado, let's get into it!





BREAKDOWN:

2007 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/10 Amobi Okoye DT 2007-10 No No F- Solid rookie season, but fell off a cliff the next year. Never lived up to his 1st-round pick. 3/73 Jacoby Jones WR 2007-11 No Yes (1x) B- The most hated man in Houston after muffing a punt and contributing heavily to our playoff loss to the Ravens. 4/123 Fred Bennett CB 2007-09 No No C- Stepped in for Dunta Robinson when he was injured and was great! Regressed severely in '08 and practically disappeared in '09, though, and was cut. Probably would've made a good safety. 5/144 Brandon Harrison S 2007-08 No No D- A perplexing pick, since we really didn't have a need for another Safety. Looked passable on paper, but only lasted for one season before being cut. 5/163 Brandon Frye OT 2007-08 No No D- Was supposed to be a bit of a project. Wasn't. Never started a game his rookie season, and floated down the road the next year. 6/183 Kasey Studdard OG 2007-12 No No C+ Was a starter all of 2009, but that was his only contribution to the team. Granted, he is a 6th rounder. 7/218 Zac Diles LB 2007-10, 14 No No C This guy has been everywhere. HOU '07-10; STL, TB, IND '11; TEN '12; KC, TEN '13; CLE, HOU, CLE '14. That's six different teams. Wow.

3rd round pick Jacoby Jones was the lone talent in this draft class, which is saying something.

4 defensive players, 3 offensive players.

One Pro Bowl player, with one first-team appearance.

0/7 players still on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

0/7 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 36.8 (D+)

Subjective Grade: D-

2008 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/26 Duane Brown OT 2008- Yes (S) Yes (3x) A+ Brown has been the rock of our O-line for a long time now. While not quite the force he used to be, he’s still a top-10 RT and far and away the best linemen on our team. 3/79 Antwaun Molden CB 2008-10 No No F+ Perpetually injured, awful at coverage, and thus almost never saw the field. Had one solid season with the Patriots in '11, but has since fallen off the radar. 3/89 Steve Slaton RB 2008-11 No No C Blew up in '08, setting a franchise record for rushing yards that remained until '10. Fumbling, a neck injury, and general fatness spelled the end of his career. 4/118 Xavier Adibi LB 2008-10 No No C- A promising athlete who was thought to be a steal at the time. He wasn't. 5/151 Frank Okam DT 2008-10 No No D Another extremely promising prospect who failed to live up to his hype. Came into the draft with way too much weight. Fortunately, he was only a 5th-round pick. Accomplished practically nothing with the Texans. 6/173 Dominique Barber S 2008-11 No No C Started in '09 before being IR'd for a hamstring injury. Never came back to perform at a respectable level. 7/223 Alex Brink QB 2008-09 No No D- On the roster for days before being cut. Later re-signed to the practice squad. Then cut again. The he was re-signed. And then he was cut. Such is the life of a 7th-round QB - always on the Brink of making a roster.

Followed up a poor draft with an equally poor one. If it weren't for Brown, this draft would be a complete and total loss.

4 defensive players, 3 offensive players.

One Pro Bowl player, with one first-team appearance.

1/7 players still on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

1/7 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 46.5 (C)

Subjective Grade: D+

2009 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/15 Brian Cushing LB 2009- Yes (S) Yes (1x) A Once the undisputed rock of our defense, Cush has started showing his age. Still, he was one of the best MLBs in the league during his peak, and still has some juice left in the tank. 2/46 Connor Barwin DE 2009-12 Yes (S) Yes (1x w/ PHI) B- IR'd in '10, then converted to OLB in '12 and had a breakout season. Never returned to the same level with us, but has been doing well for the Eagles. 3/77 Antoine Caldwell C 2009-12 No No C A solid center while he played with us. 4/112 Glover Quin CB 2009-12 Yes (S) Yes (1x w/ DET) B+ An average to above-average CB-turned-Safety cut in the name of Ed "The Bamboozler" Reed. 4/122 Anthony Hill TE 2009-10 No No D- Caught Swine flu, but could only manage to catch one pass as a Texan. Was supposed to be the blocking back to complement OD, but failed. 5/152 James Casey TE 2009-12 No No B An extremely versatile and talented FB who really came into his own in '12 and '13. Played with Eagles from ’13-’14, and Broncos in ’15. 6/188 Brice McCain CB 2009-13 Yes (NS) No C- Another guy who had no business starting. Ever. Not even in the Nickel. For the position he was drafted in, though, he wasn't a complete loss. 7/223 Troy Nolan S 2009-12 No No B- Promising start to his career with 3 INTs and a sack, but as with most things in the universe, a regression to the mean came shortly after. Grade is based on his value as a 7th-round pick.

Perhaps one of Smith's best drafts. Few misses, and plenty of talent all around. We let a lot of that talent walk, though...

5 defensive players, 3 offensive players.

Three Pro Bowl players, with one first-team appearance.

4/8 players still on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

1/8 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 60.7 (C+)

Subjective Grade: B

2010 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/20 Kareem Jackson CB 2010- Yes (S) No B+ He's had his ups and downs, but all things considered he's a very good CB. By the way, click his name and read the "Weaknesses" section. Holy shit, that's some Nostradamus-level prognosticating right there. 2/58 Ben Tate RB 2010-13 No No B- Aside from a few seasons as an excellent backup for Foster (remember that two-pronged rushing attack?), Tate never amounted to much with the Browns, Vikings, or Steelers. 3/81 Earl Mitchell DT 2010-13 Yes (IR) No C+ Not a "sexy" player stat-wise, but he wasn't terrible. Just never matched his preseason form. PFF shows a precipitous drop-off after a solid ’14 season, though he was still getting snaps this season prior to his injury. 4/102 Darryl Sharpton LB 2010-13 No No D+ Never recognized his potential - or potential potential - due to being in an almost constant state of disrepair. 4/118 Garrett Graham TE 2010-15 Yes (IR) No C An overpaid middling TE that occasionally showed flashes as a receiver, Graham took his talents to Denver where he has mostly fizzled out. 5/144 Sherrick McManis CB 2010-12 Yes (NS) No C- The epitome of a "special teams" guy. Never did much of anything with us, and hasn’t done much with the Bears. 6/187 Shelley Smith G 2010-11 No No D- Never played in the regular season. Bounced around with other teams, but never stuck. 6/197 Trindon Holliday WR 2010-12 No No C Really short, really fast, really shifty, and really prone to fumbles. Cut in 2012, went to the Broncos, and was the first player to return a punt and a kick for a TD in a postseason game. Still not a good WR. 7/227 Dorin Dickerson TE 2010-11 No No D+ Dressed for a few games, but never started. But, you know, he's a 7th-rounder.

No landmark players drafted, and plenty of lackluster picks. KJax has been a consistent piece of the secondary, though, so that’s something.

4 defensive players, 5 offensive players.

No Pro Bowl players. Ice Kareem is this group's only hope, and it’s looking like that’s not gonna happen.

2/9 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

1/9 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 48.4 (C)

Subjective Grade: C+

2011 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/11 J.J. Watt DE 2011- Yes (S) Yes (4x) A+++ Undoubtedly one of the best picks the Texans have ever made. 2/42 Brooks Reed LB 2011-14 Yes (S) No B- Doesn't live up to his 2nd round pick designation, but has performed consistently and has shown flashes at times. Doing well with the Falcons now. 2/60 Brandon Harris CB 2011-13 No No F Just awful. Never came remotely close to living up to being the 60th overall pick. 4/127 Rashad Carmichael CB 2011-13 No No D- As bad as (maybe worse than) Harris production wise, but was a slightly less costly mistake 5/144 Shiloh Keo S 2011-14 Yes (NS) No C+ Spent most of 2012 getting roasted, but stepped up and performed admirably last year after Bamboozlegate. Played with Broncos and, most recently, the Saints. 5/152 T.J. Yates QB 2011-13, 15 Yes (NA) No C- The Bengal killer. Thanks for the wins, TJ. Was never a great QB, but he was adequate as a backup. 7/214 Derek Newton OT 2011- Yes (IR) No B You know, for a 7th round RT he performed about as well as you'd have expected during his "Hologram" phase. He has now appreciably improved, but still lapses back into that alternate "Wait, I'm supposed to be footballing?" dimension every so often. 7/254 Cheta Ozougwu DE 2011 No No C Mr. Irrelevant '11. He actually has 1 sack and a FF to his name! Not with us, though.

Outside the generational talent Watt, Reed, and Newton are three relatively strong players. The rest of the draft was a miss, though. Yates eked out a few wins, but the pick could’ve been used for OL depth. Keo was a disappointment overall, Harris was a stinker, and Reed was never anything more than mediocre with us.

6 defensive players, 2 offensive players.

One Pro Bowl player, with four first-team appearances.

3/7 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

2/7 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 51.8 (C)

Subjective Grade: C

2012 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/26 Whitney Mercilus LB 2012- Yes (S) No A I think Merc has finally shut up the doubters. He has now strung together two very strong seasons under RAC, and is one of the best LBs on the team. 3/68 DeVier Posey WR 2012-14 No No D- Showed some promise, exploded his Achilles tendon, and vanished from the face of the Earth. Should have never been drafted in the 3rd anyway. Plays in Canada now. 3/76 Brandon Brooks G 2012-15 Yes (S) No B+ An excellent lineman with anxiety problems. Was controversially allowed to walk this offseason to be replaced by Jeff Allen. 4/99 Ben Jones C 2012-15 Yes (S) No B Top center prospect who transitioned RG and became a starter. Was allowed to walk for Martin/Bergstron/Mancz. 4/121 Keshawn Martin WR 2012-15 No No D Was never a great receiver. Went to the Pats, caught a few TDs, and was released. Signed by the 49ers, and once again release. He’s a FA now, and will likely remain one. 4/126 Jared Crick DE 2012-15 Yes (S) No C Never lived up to the "Mini-Watt" moniker in my book. He’s been effectively replaced with Christian Covington, which is saying something. Was a consistent contributor when he was with us, though. 5/161 Randy Bullock K 2012-15 Yes (S) No D- He wasn’t a good kicker when he was with us, and he still isn’t. Thanks for that win against the Bengals, though. 6/195 Nick Mondek OT 2012-2013 No No D Literally never did anything.

5 of the 8 players selected in this draft class were allowed to walk after the 2015 season. Two of them were good, one was mediocre, and two were garbage. As with the Watt draft, Mercilus is the only redeeming quality of this draft as far as current roster impact is concerned.

2 defensive players, 5 offensive players, 1 stupid special teams player.

No Pro Bowl players. Mercilus is this group's only hope.

5/8 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

1/8 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 49.1 (C)

Subjective Grade: C+

2013 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/27 DeAndre Hopkins WR 2013- Yes (S) Yes (1x) A+ Down year this year, but Nuk is still Nuk. Here’s to hoping the FO can get a deal done this year, because the man needs to get paid. 2/57 D.J. Swearinger S 2013-14 Yes (S) No C- Could never cover with us, and was good only for his occasional highlight-reel hits. PFF has him as the 10th best safety this season, though, so… maybe it was an issue with fit? 3/89 Brennan Williams OT 2013-14 No No D Promising draft pick who never saw the light of day due to injuries. Waived after failing to heal from the dreaded microfracture procedure. Dude’s a wrestler now (see: Marcellus Black). 3/95 Sam Montgomery DE 2013 No No F There were red flags everywhere concerning his demeanor and work ethic, but we took a shot... and we failed... miserably. 4/124 Trevardo Williams DE 2013-14 No No F Promising pick that was slated to fill Barwin's spot. Was cut in ’14 and failed to latch on anywhere. Playing in Canada now. 6/176 David Quessenberry OT 2013- Yes (IR) No C- Broke his foot his rookie season in practice, and got diagnosed with cancer the next year. He was waived this year, cleared waivers, and was added to our NFI list. Could play next year, I think…? 6/195 Alan Bonner WR 2013-15 No No D Lived on the IR for a few years, and was unceremoniously cut. 6/198 Chris Jones DT 2013 Yes (S) No C Was never given a chance with the Texans, but had a decent start to his 2014 season with the Patriots. Has bounced around teams since then. 6/201 Ryan Griffin TE 2013- Yes (S) No B+ Now a consistent contributor next to Fiedorowicz, Griffin is a good-not-great TE that was well worth a 6th rounder.

Quite possibly the worst draft I've ever seen - up there with the Redskins selling the farm for RGIII. Hopkins is the only real bright spot in this draft class. Outside of the 1st and last picks of this draft, everything else was a colossal disappointment in terms of impact.

4 defensive players, 5 offensive players.

One Pro Bowl player, with zero first-team appearances.

4/9 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

3/9 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 42.9 (C-)

Subjective Grade: D

2014 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/1 Jadeveon Clowney DE 2014- Yes (S) Yes (1x) A Clowney has arrived. After a few rough seasons, we’re finally seeing his true potential. Already an elite run stopper, his pass rushing seems to improve each game. 2/33 Xavier Su'a-Filo G 2014- Yes (S) No D+ Still more of a liability than an asset, XSF hasn’t come close to living up to his 33rd overall selection. He has improved as a starter, but he’s still not there yet. 3/65 C.J. Fiedorowicz TE 2014- Yes (NS) No B- The Polish Hat has been a revelation this year. PFF ranks him 12th best TE, with his grade improving by 31.5 points between ’14 and ’16. 3/83 Louis Nix III DT 2014 Yes (PS) No F Another "promising" 3rd rounder who amounted to nothing. Continually injured during his tenure with us, he’s now on the Jags practice squad. He has still yet to record a tackle in the NFL. 4/135 Tom Savage QB 2014- Yes (NS) No C He’s probably not the Texans savior, but he is at the very least a competent backup. 6/177 Jeoffrey Pagan DE 2014-15 No No C- Picked at the top of the 6th, Pagan wasn’t highly touted by the scouts but was a good depth pick at the time. Didn’t pan out. 6/181 Alfred Blue RB 2014- Yes (NS) No B+ Blue isn’t much of a blocker, and isn’t a threat as a receiver, but is very Tate-esque in his ability to effectively spell our bell cow back. 6/211 Jay Prosch FB 2014- Yes (S) No B One of the best FBs in the league, per PFF. Prosch sees very few snaps as a rusher, but is an excellent pass blocker. Wish we used him more in short yardage situations, but whatever. 7/216 Andre Hal S 2014- Yes (S) No A Hal is the definition of "solid", which is really saying something for a 7th round pick. 7/256 Lonnie Ballentine S 2014- Yes (IR) No B- 2014’s Mr. Irrelevant. The poor guy can’t seems to keep himself off the IR, but when he plays he provides adequate depth for our secondary. Great value pick.

Louis Nix III ended up being a complete whiff, but this was an otherwise solid draft. Pagan didn’t pan out, but he only cost a 6th and was, at the time, thought to be a decent depth pick. Everyone else (save for Ballentine, perhaps) is likely to continue to contribute to the team, either as starters or solid depth.

3 defensive players, 7 offensive players.

One Pro Bowl player, with zero first-team appearances.

7/10 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

8/10 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 60.0 (C+)

Subjective Grade: B-

2015 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/16 Kevin Johnson CB 2015- Yes (IR) No A Prior to being placed on IR this year, KJo was one of the highest graded CBs according to PFF. That showed on the field, as well – he and Bouye were spectacular. The secondary’s future looks bright. 2/43 Bernardrick McKinney LB 2015- Yes (S) No A I didn’t view this as a very sexy pick at the time, but boy was I wrong. In his second year, McKinney has already replaced an aging Cushing as the rock of our LB corps. 3/70 Jaelen Strong WR 2015- Yes (IR) No C- Some (me) presumed Strong would start opposite Nuk this year, but it wasn’t so. He’s shown some big play-ability, but has thus far been unspectacular. Time will tell whether or not this was a miss. 5/175 Keith Mumphery WR 2015- Yes (NS) No C- I wasn’t a fan of this pick, and I’m still not. Mumphery is a hard worker, but doesn’t "flash" in any particular facet of the game. Could’ve probably signed him as an UDFA. 6/211 Reshard Cliett LB 2015 Yes (PS) No C According to Hard Knocks, BoB loved this guy. Seemed like another reach, but it was a 6th so it didn’t raise much concern. Off the team now, bouncing around as PS fodder. 6/216 Christian Covington DE 2015- Yes (S) No B Some slight redemption for the previous two picks. CC is a solid Crick-esque depth guy. Too small for DT, he often lines up as an end. Unspectacular, but adequate. 7/235 Kenny Hilliard RB 2015- Yes (PS) No B- Looked better than Blue and Grimes at times this preseason, but was relegated to the PS. Will likely fight for a roster spot next year.

Johnson and McKinney are two players that are likely to be integral pieces of the team for years to come, and Strong may yet come along. The rest are decent depth picks. Aside from a few odd reaches with the compensatory picks, this was a solid draft.

4 defensive players, 3 offensive players.

No Pro Bowl players. KJo may be one day. McKinney would if his role was sexier.

3/7 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

6/7 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 65.3 (B-)

Subjective Grade: B-

2016 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes 1/21 Will Fuller V WR 2016- Yes (S) No C+ Fuller started the season off hot, but has cooled off considerably. Draft pundits warned about his hands, and they were right. He has blazing speed, but so far hasn’t been a consistent impact player. Is it the QBs fault? Time will tell… 2/50 Nick Martin C 2016- Yes (IR) No B Looked solid in preseason prior to a high ankle sprain so severe it placed him on the IR for the duration of the season. If he comes back strong – and he should – he’ll supplant Mancz at center. 3/85 Braxton Miller WR 2016- Yes (IR) No D+ Everyone knew Brax would be a project, but I didn’t see anything prior to his transfer to the IR that led me to believe he’ll be anything more than a gimmicky "offensive weapon". 4/119 Tyler Ervin RB 2016- Yes (NS) No D- Literally a very slightly larger, quicker, and more athletic Akeem Hunt, minus one year experience. No idea why this pick was made, as we already had a shifty scatback in Hunt. Has not impressed at all this season. 5/159 K.J. Dillon S 2016- Yes (IR) No C Took very few snaps prior to being IR’d, but looked unspectacular when given opportunities. Still a rookie, there’s plenty of time to carve out a role. Likely won’t be a starting one, though. 5/166 D.J. Reader DT 2016- Yes (S) No B+ A very smart pick, given Wilfork’s impending retirement. Seems to improve each game. May very well end up a solid prototypical nose tackle.

It’s a bit early to judge, but so far our offensive picks this draft have been underwhelming at best. Martin may end up our starting center for the foreseeable future, and Reader may be the big, young NT we’ve wanted for years, but the rest are up in the air.

2 defensive players, 4 offensive players.

Obviously no Pro Bowl players yet. Fuller is likely this group’s only chance.

3/6 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).

6/6 players still with team.

"Objective" Grade: 52.4 (C)

Subjective Grade: D+





ANALYSIS:

When we last checked in on Rick Smith’s performance, his average "Objective" Grade was right around 50 (or a "C"), while his Subjective Grade was around 30 (or a "D").

This time around, Smith earns a 51.1 ("C") for his average "Objective" Grade, and a 47.9 ("C") for his average Subjective Grade.

The 2015 draft, which I graded as his best draft to date, really buoyed his averages. Let’s take a look at a nifty little graph that illustrates that:

As you can see, the 2009 and 2015 drafts were two of Smith and Co.’s best. Even without factoring those two drafts in (which totally isn’t fair) his "Objective" Grade still hovers around a "C".



That’s all good and well, but what about the continued narrative that Smith is a skilled 1st round drafter that falls flat on his face in later rounds? Let’s take a look:

That sure seems to confirm our fears, doesn’t it? Smith falls well short of average between the 3rd and 5th rounds, which just so happen to account for 45% of our picks. Knocking 1st round picks out of the park shouldn’t be difficult to do – you are picking from a deep pool of talent, after all. Mid-round picks are the meat of things, though, and Smith’s performance there has got me asking "Where’s the Beef?"

If you strip away the grade he’s earned for 1st round picks and look solely at his performance between the 2nd and 7th, his grade drops from around 51 to 40 – good for a D+ in case you were wondering. That seems to be more in line with the general opinion of his body of work.

Being GM isn’t just about the draft, though. Smith and his merry band of "meh" is also responsible for bringing in UDFAs after the draft. Now I’m not going to go through and grade every UDFA acquisition he’s made, but we all know the Texans have generally done well here. Currently on the roster we’ve got Mancz, Anderson, Bullough, and Bouye.



Does our FO’s propensity to land solid UDFAs make up for its shortcoming in the middle rounds, though? Would we be better off if we could actually draft decent players in the 3rd rounds and beyond? I’m inclined to say yes, but that’s just me.



And remember – for every A.J. Bouye, there’s an Ed Reed.





CLOSING:



So what say you, BRB? With rumors swirling around O’Brien’s relationship with Rick Smith, whose side are you taking? Cast your vote in the poll and let your thoughts be heard in the comments below!



Go Texans!