MIDDLEBURY, Vt. — How does the most liberal state in the country end up with a Republican governor apparently cruising to re-election this year?

Ask his Democratic opponent, Christine Hallquist — she voted for him in 2016. "So I get it," she said in an interview over lunch in this quaint college town.

But Hallquist, who would become the nation’s first transgender governor if she wins Tuesday, says she now realizes Gov. Phil Scott is "a wolf in sheep’s clothing" who doesn't live up to the independent image he projects, citing his vetoes of bills to raise the minimum wage and enact paid family leave, and alleged outsourcing of political dirty work to others.

The only problem with that message may be getting her fellow Democrats to listen. In a state that voted for Hillary Clinton by an almost 2-to-1 margin, a recent poll shows the Republican incumbent leading Hallquist 42 percent to 28 percent, with 22 percent undecided.

"Phil is distancing himself from the Republican Party because he won't get elected if he gets tied to the Republican Party, but he's following the exact same tactics as the Republican Party," Hallquist said. "That's what I keep telling folks — stop listening to his words and look what he’s doing."

Even if the "blue wave" materializes on Election Day, it appears unlikely to wash out popular GOP governors in some of the bluest states in the country. That's because they have effectively used both their overwhelmingly Democratic legislatures and President Donald Trump as foils.

Political handicappers now give Democrats a better chance at winning governor's races in Oklahoma, South Dakota and Georgia than they do in states like Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland.

"Republicans cracked the formula for winning in and successfully governing blue states," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the Cook Political Report.

But Vermont may end up with one of the oddest results anywhere Tuesday night by simultaneously re-electing its Republican governor and a self-described Democratic socialist senator in Bernie Sanders with many voters likely opting for both.

And a state that prides itself on being the first to enact civil unions and gay marriage by legislation might miss a chance to make the next chapter of LGBTQ history after Hallquist struggled to even raise enough money to run a TV ad.