Bottas vs Hamilton

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Bottas starts the lap faster likely due to coming off T16 on the outlap better. Note how he shifts up to 8th gear earlier which nets him time relative to Hamilton. Hamilton holds higher RPM through the sweeping right hander that is T1, but the two drivers are still fairly even through here. Bottas edges a bit further ahead through T4 as he maintains a higher minimum speed, but Hamilton’s good exit results in neither driver gaining into T6. Hamilton generally seems to get able to get on the power slightly earlier than Bottas, perhaps due to running a bit more rear downforce or different racing lines (getting the car rotated earlier can help corner exit).

Again Hamilton is stronger through the high speed stuff. Interestingly, Bottas shifts down for T9 keeping his RPM up and gets a much better exit out of T9 and through T10. Through T11-13, however, Hamilton is supreme, braking later and carrying more speed through and then onto the long back straight. He may have used less of his tyres in preparation for the final sector where traction is crucial. Bottas shifts earlier than Hamilton here and this may have affected his speed down this straight. Hamilton makes up even more time through T14 and going into T16 is actually ahead, but Bottas’ better exit allows him to take pole as Hamilton seems to have a moment coming out of T16.

Bottas vs Vettel

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Much has been made of the Ferrari straight line speed, and in this lap the time Vettel gained on Bottas in straights totals to approx 0.3s and approx 0.1s in corners. Yet Ferrari ended up 0.3s behind so where did they lose 0.7s? The obvious answer is in the corners of course, but which ones? Mercedes are faster in nearly every slow corner here but their time gained isn’t evenly distributed.

As the lap evolves, Ferrari start to begin to lose more and more time through these slow corners. They are initially fairly evenly matched through T1-4, then Mercedes gain 0.1s through T6, then 0.2s through T9-10, then 0.25s through T11-13, and 0.15s through T16. Surprisingly, they’re fairly even through T14. Tyres seem the most likely reason for this. The Ferrari’s traction in sector 1 is on par with Mercedes, but thereafter especially through T9 and out of T12 the grip just isn’t there. The final thing to note is Ferrari’s RPM in 8th gear (the two main straights into T1 and T14) just like Bahrain. It’s possible this is drag related as the RPM gap here widens as speed increases.

Vettel vs Leclerc

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Ultimately separated by 17 thousandths of a second, the two Ferrari also had a close intra-team fight akin to Mercedes but this one evolved differently with neither car getting more than a tenth ahead of the other. Leclerc taking the Hamilton approach to T1 keeping RPM high, but unlike the other front running drivers he applies consistent brake pressure throughout (exactly how much pressure is however unknown). Leclerc seems to be getting better traction for the most part, but it is marginal.

Vettel stays in 3rd coming out of T11 which allows him to attain a higher speed before T12 which nets him a tenth or so. Leclerc also stays in a higher gear in low speed turns in sector 3, possibly to manage torque better for traction as the tyres would be complaining at this point. Hard to say which is better, likely just different approaches given how close their final sector times were at 0.002s apart.

Bottas vs Verstappen

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Total time lost on straights to Bottas is approx 0.4s, indicating a clear power deficit. Time lost in corners totals to approx 0.3s and time gained 0.2s. The Red Bull and Mercedes are fairly evenly matches through the high speed T7-8 so downforce levels are likely close. Traction appears to be slightly better for the Red Bull, with the exception of the final two corners, the Mercedes possibly keeping its tyres in better shape. Note the slight blip in Verstappen’s throttle on the exit of T13 too. There is also some strange RPM variance in the Honda PU, particularly in 8th gear, excess vibrations perhaps?

Verstappen vs Gasly vs Ricciardo

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Gasly has so far struggled in qualifying against Verstappen and was almost a second off in China. His time lost to Verstappen is gradual throughout the lap but appears to stem from three key areas: braking, apex speed, and change of direction. These are signs that the balance of the car is just something Gasly is not comfortable with at the moment. Traction looks fine, perhaps better then Verstappen, though this may be influenced by Gasly’s racing line and/or being less on the limit during the corner.

Renault were best of the rest in China but still almost a second off Red Bull’s pace. While it appears as though the Renault PU doesn’t rev as high as the Honda, this is due to the longer gearing on the Renault; like for like the two PUs are fairly close in this regard. Their setup also appears to be one with significant rear wing relative to Red Bull as with DRS they gain more speed, and are also strong in traction and high speed corners like T7-8. Straight line speed on non DRS straights is also strong, particularly so if they’re running more downforce at the expense of drag as well as longer gears, so perhaps there is more absolute performance the Renault PU then it might appear.



