As we gear up for the Baltimore Orioles’ 2018 season, I’m going to make five bold predictions of things that just might happen this year.

The Baltimore Orioles’ 2018 season isn’t all that far away, and as spring training comes to a close and we gear up for the season to start, I’m going to make five bold predictions for the year.

It’s important to note what I mean when I say “bold predictions.” These are not things that I necessarily think will happen at all. In fact, I would say they probably won’t. But, they are things that I think could happen.

So without further adieu, here are my five bold predictions for the Baltimore Orioles 2018 season.

5. Kevin Gausman bounces back and is one of the 30 best pitchers in baseball

I love Kevin Gausman, I’ve loved Kevin Gausman and the stuff he has for so long. But last year was terrible for him as he finished the year pitching to a 4.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and an 8.63 K/9 over 186.2 innings pitched.

The strikeouts were nice, but the walks and the ERA were really bad, and there was a reason for it – he lost control of his fastball. But there was a change, and it happened in the second half of the year last year. You can see it in his first- and second-half splits, as he pitched to a 5.85 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and 7.70 K/9 in the first half and a 3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 9.64 K/9 in the second half.

So what changed? The answer lies in his horizontal release point, which changed significantly last year:

Specifically what happened is Gausman moved where he was standing on the mound, closer to the first base side. This led to all kinds of success as the year went on:

Whenever I see a player make a definitive, noticeable skill change like this and it’s correlated with success, I’m optimistic that they can keep it up. Gausman did just that, and if he’s able to keep his fastball (and his split-change) under control and continue the success that he saw at the end of the year last year, he could be in for a great season.