Lock-In | Timing | Info | Resources | Research team | Disclaimer

Choices

This map shows sea levels locked in by different amounts of carbon pollution, according to recent scientific research. If we burn enough fossil fuels to heat the planet by 4°C—continuing a path of unchecked pollution—we could drown coastal cities worldwide. If we make a rapid transition to a global clean energy economy and achieve the main goal of the Paris Agreement, limiting warming to 2°C, some cities will be saved. If we go faster and further to achieve the most ambitious Paris goal, 1.5°C, the outlook improves dramatically. Still, it is sobering to map the challenges following after 1°C of warming, a level we have just passed.

According to Climate Central’s analysis, 470 to 760 million people (central finding, 627 million) live on land that would be condemned by 4°C warming. The number drops by more than half for 2°C, and more than half again for 1.5°C.

These two efforts evaluate how much warming we can currently expect in light of the national pledges made at Paris and the policies developed since then.

Lock-in

Sea levels don’t respond instantly to warming, just as an ice cube doesn’t melt instantly when you take it out of the freezer. But it does melt, and they will respond.

Once carbon pollution enters the atmosphere, the genie is out of the bottle. It continues heating the planet for thousands of years. That is why scientists talk about locked-in or committed warming and sea level rise. The more we pollute, the more we lock in. The less we pollute, the more places we save. That is what this map is about. Which future and legacy will we choose?

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Timing

How long will sea level rise take? That’s harder to say. Recent research says that without cutting carbon pollution, we could see more than 6 feet (2 meters) this century. And reach 20 feet (6 meters) the next. T hese numbers are bigger than most scientists expected just a year ago.

Then again, Earth is heating up faster than it has in tens of millions of years—so it is difficult to know exactly what to expect. Since we have already warmed the planet more than 1°C, many feet of sea level rise are already in the pipeline beyond what we see today.

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More information

Mapping Choices presents a split-screen view of some of the same maps shown here, for comparing scenarios. From Mapping Choices, click on “Learn About This Map” for more detailed information about the science and sources behind both Mapping Choices and this map. They come from the same research. Here are a few of the main points:

Most of the sea level rise mapped here comes from the melting and decay of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

The sea levels shown in this map come from the center of a range of scientifically assessed possibilities; the true outcome could be more or less severe.

The elevation data used inside the United States is compiled by NOAA and has high resolution and accuracy.

The elevation data used outside the U.S. has much poorer resolution and accuracy. On average, it lists elevations that are too high, leading to maps that show less danger from sea level rise than they should.

Graphical map tiles are by Stamen Design, under CC BY 3.0. Map data by OpenStreetMap, under CC BY SA.

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More sea level resources from Climate Central

Risk Zone Map shows near-term sea level rise and coastal flood threats.

Risk Finder includes projections, analysis, and downloadable graphics and reports for every coastal city, county, and state -- and more -- in the contiguous U.S.

Surging Seas collects these sea level resources and more.

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Research team

Benjamin Strauss and Scott Kulp of Climate Central led and conducted the research behind this project, in collaboration with Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research.

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General disclaimer & legal terms of use

The purpose of this web tool is to provide a picture of post-2100 sea level rise threatened by different levels of carbon pollution, in order to inform public and policy dialogues about energy and climate. It is not meant as a planning tool or as a prediction for any precise location. All data and maps are provided “as is” without any warranty to their performance, accuracy or suitability for any particular purpose. All risks associated with any results, decisions and/or performance of the data made available on this website are borne entirely by the user. For more information visit Disclaimer | Terms of Use.

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