Summer is Ebbing, but the Federal Liberal Lead is Not

Conservative message having no effect on Trudeau

Toronto, August 24th– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ amongst 1150 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, four in ten (42%) say they would support the Liberals. More than a third (35%) say they would support the Conservatives, and just over one in ten (14%) say they would support the NDP.

The Green party (4%) and the Bloc Quebécois (4%) follow behind, with ‘other’ parties securing (1%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 65 and over (65%), female (48%), earning $100,000-$250,000 (50%), living in the Atlantic provinces (56%), and have a college/university (44%) or post-graduate (44%) degree.

Respondents most likely to support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (44%), male (44%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (35%), $60,000-$80,000 (35%), or $80,000-$100,000 (37%), and living in Alberta (57%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 35-44 (18%) or 55-64 (14%), living in British Columbia (21%), and have a post-graduate degree (22%).

Liberals to increase majority

If an election were held today, the Liberals would increase their majority, with the Conservatives winning 105 seats, the Liberals 211, the NDP 16, the BQ 5, and 1 for the Green.

Trudeau approval stable

While Trudeau’s net favourable score is stable over the summer. Almost half (49%) say they approve of his performance so far, while just over four in ten (42%) say they disapprove. His net favourable score remains +7.

Only a small proportion of voters (10%) say they do not know.

Andrew Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (25%) of voters and disapproval at the same proportion (26%). His net favourable score is -1. Andrew Scheer has failed to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost half (48%) saying they do not know.

Tom Mulcair sees an approval of more than a third (36%) and his disapproval is just under 3 in 10 (29%), though over a third (34%) say they do not know about his performance. His net favourable score is equal to Justin Trudeau at +7.

Trudeau still seen by plurality as the best PM

Almost 4 in 10 see Justin Trudeau (39%) as the best PM. Andrew Scheer is seen by fewer than 2 in 10 (18%) as the best PM, and Tom Mulcair is favoured by only 1 in 10 (10%).

“For the most part, the numbers for both the leaders and their parties have remained consistent throughout the summer. As the start of the fall legislative session nears, we may expect some upheaval in these numbers as MPs get back to work, but for now Justin Trudeau holds a favourable edge over both his main rivals,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.