What Sunday's vote in Mexico could bring

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution favors spending to tackle social ills, such as keeping youths away from gangs. Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution favors spending to tackle social ills, such as keeping youths away from gangs. Photo: AP Photo: AP Image 1 of / 3 Caption Close What Sunday's vote in Mexico could bring 1 / 3 Back to Gallery

MEXICO CITY - Some 50 million Mexicans go to the polls today in an election expected to return the presidency to the political party that undemocratically ruled the country for most of the last century.

Opinion polls give Enrique Peña Nieto, candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) a double-digit lead over his closest rival, leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Josefina Vazquez Mota, candidate of President Felipe Calderon's conservative National Action Party, trails a distant third.

Whoever wins will contend with murderous gang warfare and lackluster economic growth that has kept nearly half of Mexicans in poverty.

Here are five things to look for as a new leader takes over for a six-year term.

What will the election mean for Texas and the United States?

Peña's economic and security policies largely mirror those of Calderon and his immediate predecessor, Vicente Fox, who also hails from the conservative and pro-business National Action Party.

More Information Calderon fears for life in Mexico MEXICO CITY — In meetings, President Felipe Calderon has been telling guests that he and his family are likely to leave Mexico to live abroad after his term expires in December. It will be too dangerous to remain, he warns in private conversation, because powerful drug mafias might come after him. For the commander-in-chief of Mexico's U.S.-backed drug war to suggest he has not provided enough security to live in his country is a stunning revelation - and may be seen as either an admission of failure or evidence of just how hard he has fought and how far Mexico needs to go. A spokesman said Calderon is "considering a variety of options both at home and abroad . . . to contribute to finding solutions to global problems."

All three leading candidates have vowed to improve upon Calderon's campaign against organized crime and drug trafficking. But they each have said they would keep the military in the streets until civilian police are capable of providing security.

Peña has said he wants a partial privatization of Mexico's petroleum and electricity industry - which would be good news for Houston-based energy companies. But sweeping energy reforms will depend on the ability of the winner to manage Congress, which has opposed efforts to open up the energy sector to American investment.

Will violence decrease along the U.S.-Mexican border?

In the short run, probably not.

But all three contenders have said they will tinker with Calderon's military-led strategy against the gangsters. Perhaps those adjustments will work.

Both Peña and Lopez Obrador tend to emphasize more social spending to wean youths from the gangs.

Vazquez, like Calderon supports such spending as well, but goes stronger on rooting out official corruption and keeping military pressure on the gangs.

With Ciudad Juarez's violence in substantial decline, any borderland strategy is likely to focus on Monterrey and the cities bordering South Texas - no matter who wins.

How close will the vote be?

Opinion polls published last week give Peña as much as a 16-point lead over Lopez Obrador, aided by a sweep of all northern Mexico.

"It's a wipeout," independent analyst Federico Estevez said of Sunday's balloting and Peña's advantage. "The question really is sort of between whether it's humongous or so-so."

Would a Peña win mean he could make serious policy changes?

That will depend on Peña's final vote tally and the coattails he provides in congressional and state races. The PRI and allied splinter parties are likely to win a majority of congress. But they'll need to make deals with opponents to win the two-thirds support of Congress and Mexico's 32 states for constitutional changes.

If Peña wins less than 40 percent of the vote, something many analysts consider possible, his political maneuverability will prove more limited.

Calderon won the presidency six years ago with only 36 percent, which sharply curtailed his ability to get his policy proposals through Congress.

An only so-so margin would give Peña less leverage to battle with opponents in Congress, and he'd be less able to impose his will on the nation's 32 mayors - most of whom are from his party but will jealously defend the power acquired since the PRI lost the presidency 12 years ago.

Will a Peña win mean a return to the often autocratic way the PRI ruled for 71 years until 2000?

Opponents claim and fear that it will. But Peña has strongly praised Mexico's democracy in his speeches.

And many analysts argue that the country now has adequate checks and balances to prevent that from happening.

Though the PRI continues to dominate Mexican politics, voters have shown a willingness to throw its politicians - as well as those from other parties - out of office if they don't measure up.

dudley.althaus@chon.com