EUROPEANS will go to the polls on May 22nd-25th to select the members of the European Parliament in a ballot that will be a measure of popular support for European integration after years of crisis and, more importantly, provide a gauge of the strength of anti-EU parties of both left and right. European elections are usually minor affairs, marked by ever-falling turnout and high numbers of protest votes. But this time the election will matter more than usual and could influence—most probably indirectly—the course of the European project. Successive EU treaties have given ever greater powers to the European Parliament, to the point where it is now almost equal in stature to the Council of Ministers (which represents governments) in approving legislation proposed by the European Commission (the EU's civil service). But growing powers have done nothing to reverse the unbroken trend of falling turnout, which has dipped at every election since direct elections were instituted 1979. Nor has it addressed the perception of a "democratic deficit" at the heart of Europe. One reason is that laws written in Brussels are often complex, while power is diffuse and decisions subject to murky compromises in multiple institutions. Another factor is that the most contentious issue of recent years—when and on what terms over-indebted countries should be bailed out—has been mainly decided by national governments, not EU institutions. A third explanation is that Europe's roughly 500m citizens have little sense of common political identity; they do not make up a "demos".

The European Parliament is trying to kindle public interest by turning the ballot into a contest for the next president of the Commission, a post traditionally decided by national leaders. The leading umbrella-parties are fielding candidates known by the German name of Spitzenkandidaten, complete with a series of face-to-face debates, and have agreed that the candidate of the largest group will be parliament's choice to lead the commission. Government leaders are suspicious of the idea but have not dared halt the process. A protracted standoff over the nomination is a distinct possibility, and would lead to paralysis in Brussels. The man to beat is Martin Schulz, a German Social Democrat who is also president of the European Parliament. If he succeeds in taking over the Commission, he will have scored a remarkable personal victory, and permanently shifted power from governments to the European Parliament. However, a more politicised commission will raise questions about its role as an impartial arbiter (eg, on competition policy) and a referee between member-states, whether they be large or small, or of the left or the right.

Although the federalists may gain more influence, Eurosceptics are also bound to gain in strength. On the right they are likely to form at least three groupings: critical reformists dominated by Britain's Tories (currently known as European Conservatives and Reformists, or ECR); a more sceptical coalition dominated by Britain's UK Independence Party (currently known as Europe of Freedom and Democracy) and a new far-right alliance led by the Front National in France, the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and others. Counting those on the left, polls suggest these Eurosceptics may raise their vote from one-fifth to nearly one-third of the 751-seat parliament (excluding the ECR, the share rises from about one-tenth to one-quarter). Eurosceptics will struggle to influence legislation directly, but they will nevertheless have three subtler effects. First, their numbers will make it harder for EU institutions to argue that the answer to every problem is "more Europe". Second, they will force mainstream parties to form a grand coalition to get legislation approved, thereby aggravating the democratic deficit. And third, they will weaken and terrify many national governments, pulling them towards more Eurosceptical policies. All this may prevent Europe from enacting the reforms it so desperately needs, from deepening the single market, to promoting free trade and fixing the euro zone.

Dig deeper:

Lazy voters look no further: an online quiz will tell you which party best matches your political views (April 2014)

The flawed attempt to make up the EU's democratic deficit (March 2014)

Europe's insurgent parties may do better in 2014 than at any time since the second world war (January 2014)

