This past weekend, members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (“PCs”) elected Doug Ford as their candidate to represent them in the upcoming provincial election. Campaign Research conducted a public opinion poll on Ford’s chances of succeeding Kathleen Wynne as Premier of Ontario. The results were impressive. It seems that Ford and the PCs have a opportunity to form a majority government in June.

Following Ford’s election as the PC Party Leader, the PCs achieved 43% voter intent among the electorate. Their opposition, the Ontario Liberal Party (“OLP”), had the support of 27% of decided voters. The Ontario New Democratic Party (“ONDP”) had 23% support; meanwhile, the Green Party of Ontario (“GPO”) had 5% support. Interestingly, only 11% of Ontarians were completely undecided as to whom they will vote for.

The PCs garnered strong support from men and women (Men= 46% and Women= 40%) as well as voters 35 years of age and older (Age 35-44= 40%, 45-54= 47%, 55-64= 46% and 65+= 53%). Regionally, the strongest voter intent for the PCs came from the Peel/Halton (50%), York/ Simcoe/ Durham (50%), and Eastern (48%) regions. Eastern region does not include the City of Ottawa. The OLP has strong support from younger voters (Age 18-24= 45%). Additionally, it has a lead in the Ottawa region (42%) and is now statistically tied with the PCs in Toronto (OLP=36% to PCs=37%). The ONDP trail the PCs but remain competitive in Northern Ontario (ONDP=32% to PCs=36%) and the Southwest regions (ONDP=34% to PCs=41%).

Premier Wynne’s net approval rating was -50% (Approval=19% and Disapproval=69% with 13% saying they were unsure). Andrea Horwath scored a net approval rating of +17% (Approval=36% and Disapproval=19% with 44% saying they didn’t know); meanwhile, Ford scored a net job approval rating of +6% (Approval=31% and Disapproval=25% with 44% saying they didn’t know).

Interestingly, only 4% of PC voters disapproved of Ford. Moreover, 59% of PC voters approved of Ford and 38% were unsure. 26% of OLP voters disapproved of Wynne. Of OLP voters, 58% approved of her and 16% were unsure. Only 4% of ONDP voters disapproved of Horwath. 72% of ONDP voters approved of Horwath; meanwhile, 25% were unsure. Horwath has high net approval numbers even among OLP (+18%) and GPO (+19%) voters.

“With Doug Ford as the new PC Leader, the PCs hold a commanding lead over the OLP and ONDP. The Doug Ford PCs are in dead heat with the OLP in Toronto – traditionally, a stronghold for the OLP. The PCs are set to win big in the GTA and many other regions.” – said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 x 109

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between March 12 to 14 2018, The study was conducted among a random sample from an online panel of 1,637 Ontario voters whose incentives for participation were handled by the panel provider and who were selected to reflect Ontario’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data.

A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4%, 19 out of 20 times. Data was weighted by age, gender and region in the Province of Ontario according to 2016 Statistics Canada census data. If you require more information, please contact us as it is available upon request.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"