Jones Becomes a Legend and Multiple Tickets Punched

Murray State became the first team to punch a ticket to the NCAA Championship tournament when they knocked off Belmont 68-51 on Saturday. On Sunday, Carlik Jones of Radford sent his team to the tournament in the best moment of March, so far, with a 3-pointer as time expired to beat Liberty 55-52. The other mid-major teams advancing to the championship tournament were Lipscomb knocking off A-Sun favorite Florida Gulf Coast, and Missouri Valley Conference one seed Loyala-Chicago, defeating Illinois St.

Just because the weekend is over doesn’t mean The Dance has stopped giving out tickets to the big one. (6) Fairfield and (4) Iona meet at 7:00 to determine the MAAC champion, in a conference tournament that saw all the top-seeds eliminated by the semifinals, and at 9:00 the top two seeds in the Southern Conference – (1) UNC Greensboro vs. (2) East Tennessee State meet for an auto-bid. Either of these teams will be popular upset picks in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but only one of them will be going, despite both having really good seasons.

Predicting the Seeds of Mid-Major Auto Bids

As mentioned, four mid-major teams have already earned their way to the NCAA Championship. For some of these teams, that’s the dream come true, but of course, they hope they aren’t getting ready to wake up yet. Fan bases want to avoid two things if they can help it come Selection Sunday, facing a play-in game, or being a 16-seed in general. These seeding predictions are likely to change daily. For example, either a conference 4 seed or 6 seed in Iona or Fairfield will be going dancing after tonight, meaning the seeding of lower seeded teams will look different come this time tomorrow. Still, it’s a fun exercise to predict the future, so predict is what we will do.

Murray State (26-5, 16-2) – Most bracketologists have Murray State in the 12-14 range. Wherever they fall, they will be a tough test for any team that draws them in the first round. The Racers have the longest current winning streak – at 13 straight – in all of the land. Better yet, they have Jonathan Stark, their senior guard leader, averaging 21.8 points a game. It’s possible for them to move-up if teams like Vermont and New Mexico State fall in their conference tournaments.

Radford (22-12, 12-6) As of this moment, Radford is partying like it’s 2009 (their last tournament appearance) but like that tournament, it’s looking like a 16-seed, for now. The Big South Conference is 25th of 32 in conference RPI rankings, so there’s some room for improvement – but not much – if worse teams from worst conferences make it. What Radford has going for them is one of the better defenses in the nation, giving up only 64.4 points per game. What they don’t have going for them is their inability to score the ball, coming in at 313th in the nation at 67.4 a game. Radford will need to hope for chaos in other conference championships – a Fairfield win tonight would be a start – in order to perhaps get up to the 15 line.

Lipscomb (23-9, 10-4) Lipscomb played the best basketball down the stretch in the Atlantic Sun conference, and parlayed that into a win over the conference favorites, Florida Gulf Coast. What that means for them, unfortunately, is most likely a 16-seed. Unlike Radford, I really don’t think they have much room for improvement. They come from one of the weaker conference (29/32 conference RPI). But, also like Radford, there’s some reason for hope if all heck breaks loose and some sub .500 teams make crazy runs, which has happened before. Lipscomb can score the ball, averaging 82.6 points a game, and is also playing their best ball of the season. But, they need some work to get off the 16 line.

Loyala-Chicago (28-5, 15-3) The Ramblers are a mid-major team with some teeth. They’ve been hanging around the “others receiving votes” category in the polls for a month and were even starting to gain some traction as an at-large bid should they fail in their conference final. Well, no worry there, as they cruised to a victory and an auto-bid this past weekend. The Missouri Valley Conference as a whole is one of the more competitive leagues in the nation, with a conference RPI of eight out of 32. That may sound surprising to some, and that’s probably why bracketologists are confused on where they will fall on Selection Sunday. 10-12 seems like a safe bet here. They are a team nobody wants to be paired up with in the first round, as they play the 5th best defense in the country. They are a junior and senior heavy team, and all their starters are averaging double-figure scoring this year. Honestly, they could be one of the rare higher seeds that are actually the Vegas favorite to win their first round game.