His largest share in both 2008 (44.9 percent) and 2012 (42.9) came from Cherokee County. Second-largest came from Okmulgee County (43.8 in 2008; 41.9 in 2012).

But both of those counties are trending down for Democrats, going back over several election cycles.

Muskogee County gave Obama 42.5 percent in 2008 and 42.6 percent in 2012, so its trend line is largely flat, especially extended back several more cycles.

Thus, the two counties that gave Obama at least 40 percent of the vote twice and have upward (albeit slight) trend lines are two counties that have not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 — Comanche County and Oklahoma County.

But there is at least one other factor: Do Oklahoma voters consider Hillary Clinton to be more like Obama or like 2014 Democratic gubernatorial candidate Joe Dorman?

Dorman also won five counties, but only Cherokee County was one in which Obama received at least 40 percent of the vote.

In Coal County, which Dorman won with 53.5 percent in 2014, Obama received only 27.5 percent two years earlier.

If Oklahoma voters think Clinton is more like Dorman, she might do better in one of the rural counties that were once Democratic strongholds.

If they think she’s more like Obama, her best bet, unlikely as it seems, might be Oklahoma City.

Randy Krehbiel 918-581-8365 randy.krehbiel@tulsaworld.com Twitter: @rkrehbiel

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