Recently, Obama claimed he would have won the election in 2016. He says he would have beaten Trump.

The New York Times reports:

“President Obama expressed confidence that, if he had run for a third term, he would have defeated Donald J. Trump, according to an interview released Monday with David Axelrod, his friend and former adviser. “I’m confident that if I — if I had run again and articulated it, I think I could’ve mobilized a majority of the American people to rally behind it,” Mr. Obama said on Mr. Axelrod’s podcast, “The Axe Files,” referring to his message of inclusion and helping middle-class Americans.”

Trump fired back on Twitter:

President Obama said that he thinks he would have won against me. He should say that but I say NO WAY! – jobs leaving, ISIS, OCare, etc. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 26, 2016

Who’s right?

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Morning Consult did a poll on that very question.

The results were stunning. Here they are:

Trump beats Obama 45-44.

While it’s within the margin of error, the poll oversampled Democrats 35-33.6%. Plus, it oversampled women 53-47%. Both groups are more likely to vote for Obama. And Trump still won! Full poll statistics are available here (PDF).

And the poll wasn’t state-specific. Taking into account the Electoral College, Obama would have lost bigly in 2016.

Sorry, Obama.

The truth is you would have lost in 2016. Trump would have won again.

Here’s what a black pastor said about the hypothetical Trump-Obama matchup (via Varney & Co.):

Pastor Darrell Scott​ on #Obama: we’ve never seen an outgoing president behave like this pic.twitter.com/A7Sbmn5hA9 — Varney & Co. (@Varneyco) December 28, 2016

From the video:

“I don’t believe he would have done as good as Hillary Clinton did. I believe she outperformed him because Hillary could claim the positives of the prior eight years but distance herself from the negatives. Whereas, if he had run, he would have had to own both the positives and the negatives. And, I believe President-elect Trump would have had him on his heels trying to defend all of his failed policies. He wouldn’t have been able to pass the blame on to anyone else the way Hillary Clinton was able to blame Obama for the negatives but embrace the positives as if she participated in them.”

He’s right. Obama would have lost!

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