Pre-preseason Look Ahead: Goaltending

It has always been a hobby of mine, and most hockey fans for that matter, to predict who will fill every spot on every line before every game. Maybe it’s the years of playing NHL video games, or perhaps it’s just what helps me fall asleep at night, but I do it obsessively. Does my girlfriend care who our fourth line center will be that night? No. But I’ll tell her anyways. Why? Because that’s what fans who follow hockey religiously enjoy doing with their spare time (or all of the time). Even when Torts blended the lines after two shifts, and your line-napkins went straight into the garbage, you still made sure that line-up card was filled in before the next game. And so, with the season’s beginning quickly approaching, it’s time to take a look at who will play together for that first shift before everything gets thrown in the salad bowl.

As the preseason advances, it’ll be interesting to look back on these projections and see who’s rising and falling based on performance or injuries.

Of course, everything begins with goaltending, and for the third time in three years, the Canucks will have a new goalie pencilled in as their starter.

Predictions: Goaltending ($7.15 Million Cap hit)

Starting Goalie: Ryan Miller ($6.0 M)

It will be a sunny day in Bellingham before Ryan Miller doesn’t open the 2014 season for the Vancouver Canucks. Arguably the biggest acquisition of the off-season for the club, Miller is not getting paid $6 million per season for three years to warm the bench like poor Roberto, and nor should he.

Miller’s veteran presence will be critical to any success the team has. When Eddie was thrown into the fire last season, his inexperience painfully showed, and he was among the worst goalies in the league stats-wise following Luongo’s departure. Shit, the defence was pitiful, but Eddie’s charm doesn’t get him off the hook. Certainly, Miller’s signing was about solidifying an apparently weak position (it’s still strange saying that). There is no doubt, though, that it was as much a hockey move as it was a PR move as well, like pretty much every major move this off-season. I’m fine with that, and I’m fully aware that this is a business and there needs to be consumer confidence. What I fear is that if Miller starts to shit the bed a bit, the coaching staff will keep him in no matter how well Lack has played in previous outings. I trust the new coaching staff that they won’t do that, though. I also believe Miller won’t get the runs, at least not for long.

Miller’s stats are a good indicator of his consistency. Hell, the only obvious blemish on the resume of the 34-year-old is his time with the St. Louis Blues. I don’t want to make light of that, because the man had to perform much better on a team that was supposed to compete for the cup, but there are a number of factors that went into his poor play.

It’s no secret that he was on a terrible, terrible Buffalo team, and he faced a ton of shots. I can’t help but think that the completely polar opposite defensive system employed by the Blues had a strange effect on his play. Rather than falling into the rhythm of constant shots that he did with Buffalo, he only faced an average of 22.5 in the final 19 games of the regular season with the Blues, holding a questionable .903 save percentage. In the 40 games with Buffalo that season, he averaged nearly 33 shots per game, and held a .923 save percentage. In fact, he hasn’t had a worse save percentage than .915 since he played a ridiculous 76 games in 2007-08 (.906 %).

The regular season doesn’t matter when you can’t perform in the playoffs, and his .897 save percentage against the Blackhawks this year scares me. I mean, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews can do that in any given series against any team, as we know, but it needs to be better for any chance at success. He looked shaky at times, and downright scared of the Hawks at others. The blame can not be wholly placed on Miller, as the Blues were absolutely brutal at times, but we can only hope that this shitty experience will help Miller in his future with the team. We all know he’ll be seeing Toews and Kane in the playoffs again before his time here is done.

It will be Miller’s consistency, veteran presence, and excitement to be with a new club that wants him here that will make him successful this season, and I think he will be.

Backup Goalie: Eddie Lack ($1.15 M)

Even after just one half-decent season in the league, it seems strange to give Eddie the backup title. He has become a fan favourite, more so than any other backup that I can remember in a long time (not counting Schneid). The truth is, though, that the experience isn’t there, and as a starting goalie for a significant portion of last season, he failed to succeed. In fact, he was simply miserable at times. His decay was evident in his media presence also.

I love Eddie like everyone else, and when he was crumbling with the rest of club during 19 straight starts in this spring, I felt terrible. But I think this will be good for Lack, and I know that he will be a starter again in the league some day. Maybe he will usurp Miller in a couple of years, or perhaps he will flourish elsewhere, but he has the skill set to succeed in the league, and the poise to handle the mental portion expertly. The skill can be taught, but his mental toughness is incredible to watch.

Realistically, Eddie should get 20+ games this season. I don’t think Miller will play much more than 60, and there will be times where Eddie will simply be the better tender, and Willie will choose to go with him instead for a few games . When he wasn’t starting last year, his numbers were damn well near the top of the league. With all that he’s been through last year, I fully expect that to be the case again. Don’t get too friendly, Ryan.

Third String: Joacim Eriksson (925 K)

Canucks fans often forget about the third Swedish goalie. After the Flyers failed to sign him in 2011 (he was their 7th round pick in 2008), he became a free agent. He won the SHL championship in 2012-2013 and followed that up with an impressive season for Utica, where he put up a 2.61 GAA and .911 SV% in 52 games. It’s obvious that he’s on pace for a big season this year, and I can’t help but think he’ll see his first real action with the club this season. We can all agree that the six goal, two period shelling in Anaheim doesn’t count.

Who’s missing?

Jacob Markstrom – It feels odd saying this after believing that he was such an elite prospect for the last few years, but after watching him play, I don’t see a ton of NHL success for the kid. I don’t know if it was being brought up in the Panthers’ system, or if he’s simply not suited to play at this level, but I don’t see him lasting with the team. If we can get a decent return for him, then that’s perfect. Don’t be surprised to see him lost on waivers if we try to sneak him down, though. He’s not eligible for a demotion without being up for grabs first, and there will be teams ready to take a chance on the kid. That would free up $1.2 million in cap space, and we can use that to see if Mr. Benning can live up to Gillis’ magical waiver hunches by using the cap space on another waiver pick up. Yes, that would make the Luongo return Shawn Matthias and some cap room.

Joe Cannata – I really don’t know a whole lot about the kid, but he played 28 games in Utica last year and put up a modest .907 save percentage. At times, he was said to be the better goalie between himself and his Swedish counterpart. It would be nice to see him push Eriksson to keep both them on their toes. I can’t help but think any NHL action is far away for the 24-year-old goalie, though it’s nice to have some apparent depth in the organization.

Thatcher Demko – Some uninformed Canucks fans might have heard the name in passing this off-season and thought that the top prospect had a chance for a spot with the club. Yeah, no. It’s great to have a legitimate, even elite goalie prospect in the Canucks’ system again, but he’s very far away from seeing the NHL. A questionable U.S. World Junior Development camp, as well as impending hip surgery gives him an exactly 0% chance of making the club. He will play on Boston College this year, and I’m excited to see how he does. Despite this summer’s camp, he will be on the U.S junior team (barring an injury), and will likely be their starter. Expect Demko on the farm team in 3-4 years, and look forward to him in a Canucks uniform in about 2019, give or take.

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