For the first time since he was elected, Donald Trump is taking his show on the road, with a trip abroad that has many observers watching nervously through their fingers — especially with visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Vatican, which host major holy sites of all three Abrahamic faiths.

Trump’s visit comes at a time when the Middle East is on a knife’s edge, with sectarian, ethnic, and ideological ground wars crisscrossing the region, and US, Russian, and other air forces launching airstrikes in attempts to tip the balance in their favor. Even the deftest, most well-informed of statesmen would be challenged to promote the US's interests and values without piercing the obscure layers of decorum that shroud public life in the Middle East.

Enter President Trump, with his penchant for unscripted moments and offensive gestures.

“There is so much subject matter that he could trip up on,” said a Dubai-based analyst for a risk-management firm, who asked that his name not be published because his firm operates in the region. “There's so much room for it to go wrong, and that seems to be amplified with this president. The potential for Trump to say something inappropriate is really high, and this is a part of the world where personal slights and loss of face are a big deal.”

Trump will be accompanied on his tour abroad by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, a former oilman with Exxon who has dealt repeatedly with the Saudis. American country superstar Toby Keith is scheduled to perform a male-only concert over the weekend, part of the hero’s welcome Trump will be given in Saudi Arabia. He will be received by King Salman and his ambitious son Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as leaders of other oil-rich Arabian Peninsula states and representatives of dozens of other Muslim states there to open a new center devoted to countering extremism.



It's a different story in Israel, where recent strains between the Israelis and the White House have filled the visit with tension and uncertainty. A planned visit to an ancient battle site has been nixed thanks to an inability to have Trump's helicopter land there. The Palestinians, on the other hand, hope to show Trump how solid their stewardship over the Church of the Nativity has been when he visits Bethlehem, in the West Bank.



At the Vatican he will meet with Pope Francis, before heading to Belgium in an attempt to reassure jittery NATO partners of Washington’s commitment to the military coalition that has been the bedrock of Western security since World War II, and a G7 meeting of the world's most powerful economies.

Everyone Trump will meet with along the way has an ask lined up for him, up to and including the pope — the Holy See will seek to convince Trump to support measures to counter climate change and to welcome refugees. The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates in particular hope to charm Trump into supporting their aim of getting the US to fight against Bashar al-Assad in Syria, while looking the other way at continued political repression in the Gulf and much of the Arab world. Israel, Trump’s second stop, hopes to convince the president to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and support — or at least ignore — the expansion of settlements in the West Bank. All of them want tougher pushback from the US against Iran’s growing influence.

Trump has done — or tried to do — business across the Gulf, most famously with an eponymously branded golf course in Dubai. Given his view of himself as a master dealmaker, analysts who spoke to BuzzFeed News predict he’ll announce tens of billions of dollars in arms and other business deals, and try to align the Arab and Israeli positions on key perceived regional strategic threats, especially Iran and ISIS.