Activision Blizzard Inc. reports first-quarter results after the close of trading Thursday. Shares of the Call of Duty publisher are up nearly 44% since the start of the year, driven by optimism over the rising tide of digital sales in the industry. Here are the key points to watch:

EARNINGS FORECAST: Activision is expected to report a profit of 21 cents a share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, down from 23 cents a year earlier. The numbers exclude certain items Wall Street and the company don’t consider...