by Aaron Schatz

Over the last couple weeks, Denver has built a commanding lead in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. After the games of Week 8, the Broncos' lead is even more commanding. The Broncos' total DVOA actually goes down slightly compared to last week because of changes in opponent adjustments of the teams they've played so far this year. But most of the teams directly behind the Broncos lost this past weekend. Of the top eight teams in DVOA a week ago, only Denver and Seattle won in Week 8, and the Seahawks won just barely. The Broncos still rank sixth among the best teams in DVOA history. The playoff odds report now gives them over a 30 percent chance to win the Super Bowl with no other team any higher than 10 percent.

Best Total DVOA Through Week 8,

1989-2014 Year Team W-L DVOA 2007 NE 8-0 73.6% 1991 WAS 7-0 62.8% 1996 GB 6-1 54.0% 2007 IND 7-0 48.7% 1994 DAL 6-1 48.2% 2014 DEN 6-1 47.6% 2003 KC 8-0 45.2% 2006 CHI 7-0 44.3% 1999 STL 6-1 43.2% 2013 DEN 7-1 42.9% 1998 DEN 7-0 41.9% 1990 CHI 6-1 41.1% 2009 NE 5-2 41.1%

But while Denver is clearly the best team in the NFL this year, there are huge disagreements between the DVOA ratings and conventional wisdom -- or simple win-loss records -- when it comes to the next few teams. There are five teams in the NFL right now with six wins, but Denver is the only one of those teams currently in the DVOA top ten!

So, why doesn't DVOA rate these teams highly? Let's take a look at each one to see if we can figure out what's going on.

Dallas (8.5% DVOA, 11th): Between the DVOA commentary of two weeks ago and the article I wrote last week for ESPN Insider, I've written a lot about the Cowboys recently. They fell from seventh to 11th in DVOA after their loss to Washington last night.

New England (7.0% DVOA, 12th): In the last three weeks, the Patriots have somehow gone from 10th to 11th to 11th to 12th in DVOA despite winning every week. The Patriots' actual DVOA rating did go up slightly from last week (when it was 5.7%) but they drop one spot in the rankings because a) Pittsburgh scored a zillion points on Indianapolis and moved into the top ten and b) their DVOA rating for the rout of the Bears wasn't as impressive as you might expect. The Patriots only ended up with 17.4% DVOA for this game despite winning by four touchdowns. Some of this has to do with long Chicago drives that ended up with no points. The Bears went 55 yards on their first drive of the third quarter and then 54 yards on their last drive of the game, but then both drives stalled out because the Bears were so far behind that they were forced to go for it on fourth-and-10. Because the Patriots had such a huge lead, these drives only count for about half-strength in the DVOA system, but they still come out as the Patriots allowing the opposing offense to march the ball down the field with successful plays.

The real issue with the Patriots over the course of the entire season is their schedule. Early on, you might remember that the Patriots had the best defensive DVOA in the league... or rather, the best VOA because we had no opponent adjustments yet. And we all thought their schedule had been easy, but that early in the season, you can't fully tell. (Remember, after three weeks Kansas City looked bad and Atlanta looked like a juggernaut.) Well, now we know that the teams on New England's schedule were not the teams that were being misjudged early on. We judged those teams fine. Those offenses were terrible. The Patriots' schedule so far ranks 28th overall, but the real issue is that the defense has faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. The average offense of the Patriots' eight opponents has -8.5% DVOA, which is equivalent to playing the Rams eight times. And the pass defense has had it absurdly easy. The Patriots have yet to face one of the league's top ten pass offenses, but they've played four of the bottom seven, plus a couple of teams (Miami and Chicago) which rank much higher running the ball than passing it. As a result, there's virtually no difference between the Patriots adjusted (DVOA) and non-adjusted (VOA) ratings for run defense. But if you took out the opponent adjustments for pass defense, the Patriots would go from No. 20 (10.1% DVOA) all the way up to No. 7 (-4.4% VOA).

It all changes now. Four of the Patriots' next five games come against teams ranked seventh or higher in DVOA pass offense, starting of course with the No. 1 Denver Broncos. And yet, it could be worse for the Pats. Their tough remaining schedule (the second hardest, trailing only Oakland) is almost matched by tough remaining schedules for the two teams fighting them for the AFC East title: Buffalo (fourth in remaining schedule) and Miami (sixth in remaining schedule).

Detroit (6.2% DVOA, 14th): I'm going to assume that this ranking doesn't really shock anyone. The Lions have played an even easier schedule than New England so far, ranked 29th this year. They've won two straight games by just a single point. The Lions are doing it entirely with a defense that ranks as the best of the league. They are just 26th on offense and 31st on special teams. On the other hand, you have to figure this team's performance is going to improve to get closer to its record over the next few weeks. There's no way the field-goal kicking can be as bad in the second half of the season, and the offense is likely to improve as they get skill players back healthy, especially Calvin Johnson. The schedule doesn't get any harder; in fact it gets easier, and only Washington has an easier remaining schedule by average DVOA of opponent.

Arizona (-1.0% DVOA, 18th): Yeah, this is the really confusing one. The fact is, most advanced stats methods for ranking the 32 NFL teams end up with somewhat similar results. For example, the Simple Rating System at Pro-Football-Reference usually comes out pretty close to DVOA. Not when it comes to Arizona. SRS has the Cardinals as the top team in the NFC and seventh in the NFL. We have them seventh in the NFC and 18th in the NFL.

I'll be honest -- going through the numbers, it is tough to figure out why the Cardinals are so low in DVOA. It certainly makes sense that the Cardinals aren't up high with Denver. They've been very consistent -- second in variance -- but their wins are consistently small. Their six wins have come by an average of 7.7 points, and then they're going to get dragged down by their big loss to Denver, even after incorporating opponent adjustments to reflect Denver's strength. The Cardinals only have 4.2 Pythagorean wins right now. Five of their seven games have a single-game DVOA rating between -10% and 10%. (The exceptions are the Week 2 win over the Giants and the Broncos loss.) Still, that reflects a team that maybe should be ranked eighth or ninth in DVOA. It doesn't reflect the idea that Arizona should be ranked only 18th, with a DVOA that is actually below average.

So what else is going on? It's not an issue of schedule, as the Cardinals have actually faced one of the toughest schedules in the league this year. The most obvious luck indicators aren't very strong: the Cardinals are average in "hidden" special teams value and while they've recovered more than half of fumbles, we're not talking about 80 percent. We're talking 5-of-8 (not counting muffed punts).

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One big issue that DVOA sees is that the Cardinals have been remarkably good at converting third downs, probably in a way that is unsustainable. Only 36 percent of Arizona offensive plays count as successful by FO standards, the lowest rate in the NFL. However, the Cardinals keep drives going because right now the offense ranks 26th on first down and 31st on second down but sixth on third or fourth down. Including DPI gains, the Cardinals have gotten at least 15 yards on 12.6 percent of offensive plays, which ranks ninth in the league. They've gotten at least 15 yards on 20 percent of third- or fourth-down plays, which ranks fifth in the league. DVOA prefers teams that keep the offense on schedule and the chains moving with a steady mix of both small and large gains, bceause that's generally a better predictor of an offense which will continue to have success in the future.

The bottom of our ratings also has some discrepencies between win-loss records and DVOA. The last winless team, Oakland, is not dead last in DVOA or even close. Four teams are behind the Raiders, including the 3-5 Vikings and the 2-5 Rams. Instead of Oakland, the worst team in DVOA by far is Tampa Bay. However, the Bucs still don't get close to the worst DVOA teams ever. At -43.9% DVOA, they don't even rank among the 20 worst teams ever measured through Week 8.

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Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 8 are:

QB Tom Brady, NE (24-HOUR HERO): 288 DYAR, the 16th best passing performance since 1989 (30-of-35 with 4 dropped passes, 354 yards, 5 TD).

288 DYAR, the 16th best passing performance since 1989 (30-of-35 with 4 dropped passes, 354 yards, 5 TD). LOLB Paul Kruger, CLE: 3 sacks, PD, FF, and TFL on a running play.

3 sacks, PD, FF, and TFL on a running play. ROLB Khalil Mack, OAK: 5 run tackles for a combined 0 yards, plus a QB hit.

5 run tackles for a combined 0 yards, plus a QB hit. SS Brandon Meriweather, WAS: 7 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles.

7 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles. RT Zach Strief, NO: Saints had 7.0 yards per carry and 100 percent Success Rate running right against Green Bay.

Football Outsiders versions of Kruger and Mack leave four teams that have not gotten Football Outsiders players in Ultimate Team yet this season: Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, and Tennessee. We'll try to get to those teams in the next couple weeks.

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All stats pages are now updated with Week 8 information -- or will be in the next few minutes -- including FO Premium, snap counts and playoff odds.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through eight weeks of 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 80 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. This week, we say goodbye to DAVE, our method which combines 2014 performance with our preseason projections. All numbers now represent 2014 only.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 47.6% 1 47.7% 1 6-1 31.8% 1 -17.5% 2 -1.7% 22 2 BAL 26.0% 2 26.1% 2 5-3 11.3% 7 -10.7% 5 4.0% 6 3 SEA 18.8% 4 18.2% 3 4-3 8.3% 10 -10.2% 6 0.3% 17 4 KC 15.1% 9 15.2% 4 4-3 5.1% 13 -5.2% 9 4.8% 5 5 GB 15.0% 3 14.8% 5 5-3 14.9% 5 1.8% 18 1.9% 13 6 PHI 12.4% 6 12.4% 6 5-2 -3.7% 23 -6.0% 8 10.1% 1 7 IND 11.0% 5 11.0% 7 5-3 9.7% 8 3.7% 21 4.9% 3 8 PIT 10.0% 14 10.2% 8 5-3 15.9% 4 8.4% 26 2.5% 11 9 SD 8.8% 8 8.8% 10 5-3 16.6% 3 9.2% 27 1.4% 14 10 MIA 8.8% 10 9.0% 9 4-3 5.2% 12 -11.9% 4 -8.4% 32 11 DAL 8.5% 7 8.5% 11 6-2 12.9% 6 2.9% 19 -1.5% 21 12 NE 7.0% 11 7.3% 12 6-2 7.5% 11 5.4% 22 4.9% 4 13 CIN 6.7% 13 6.0% 14 4-2-1 0.3% 16 -3.1% 12 3.3% 9 14 DET 6.2% 12 6.1% 13 6-2 -10.8% 26 -23.6% 1 -6.6% 31 15 NO 5.5% 21 5.9% 15 3-4 18.0% 2 13.7% 30 1.2% 16 16 BUF 3.2% 16 3.1% 16 5-3 -16.6% 28 -13.7% 3 6.1% 2 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 CLE -0.3% 17 -0.5% 17 4-3 2.9% 15 3.4% 20 0.1% 18 18 ARI -1.0% 15 -1.2% 18 6-1 -10.3% 25 -8.1% 7 1.3% 15 19 ATL -2.4% 18 -2.8% 19 2-6 9.1% 9 15.4% 32 3.9% 7 20 SF -3.6% 20 -3.7% 20 4-3 -3.1% 21 -4.4% 10 -4.9% 28 21 NYG -4.6% 22 -4.9% 22 3-4 -2.3% 18 0.3% 16 -1.9% 23 22 HOU -4.8% 23 -4.8% 21 4-4 -2.5% 19 -2.5% 13 -4.8% 27 23 WAS -6.5% 24 -6.5% 23 3-5 -2.2% 17 -1.2% 14 -5.5% 29 24 CHI -8.6% 19 -9.0% 24 3-5 3.3% 14 5.8% 23 -6.1% 30 25 TEN -10.6% 26 -10.2% 25 2-6 -3.7% 22 5.9% 24 -1.0% 20 26 CAR -14.8% 25 -14.7% 26 3-4-1 -2.7% 20 11.1% 28 -1.0% 19 27 NYJ -19.2% 27 -19.2% 28 1-7 -21.3% 29 1.3% 17 3.3% 8 28 OAK -19.4% 29 -19.0% 27 0-7 -16.0% 27 6.4% 25 3.1% 10 29 MIN -24.4% 30 -24.5% 30 3-5 -27.7% 32 -0.9% 15 2.4% 12 30 STL -24.6% 28 -24.3% 29 2-5 -8.6% 24 14.0% 31 -2.0% 24 31 JAC -26.1% 31 -25.5% 31 1-7 -27.1% 31 -3.9% 11 -2.9% 25 32 TB -43.9% 32 -43.7% 32 1-6 -26.5% 30 12.8% 29 -4.6% 26

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).