I love the Coach of the Year award, particularly in the pre-season. That’s mostly because it’s such an impossible award to predict.

In 2012, I selected Mike Mularkey as my pick. That turned out be very, very wrong, but in COTY predicting, it’s win or go home, so swinging for the fences makes sense.

In 2013, I selected Sean Payton; unfortunately for him, a playoff berth was not enough to get him Coach of the Year. That honor instead went to Ron Rivera.

In 2014, I chose … Jay Gruden. Washington went 4-12.

In 2015, I chose Dan Quinn. That looked good after a 6-1 start, but Atlanta finished just 8-8.

The reason this award is so hard to pick is because in some ways, every coach is on an even playing field in week 1. The winner of this award is the one who usually exceeds expectations the most, so there is a natural equalizer in place. Last year’s winner was Ron Rivera, again, as his Panthers went a surprising 15-1 and wildly exceeded expectations.

Below are the current odds for 2016 Coach of the Year, along with each coach’s percent chance of winning the award once you remove the vig:

Rk Head Coach Odds Vig-less Perc 1 Bruce Arians 15/2 8.9% 1 Mike Zimmer 15/2 8.9% 3 Mike McCarthy 9/1 7.4% 4 Bill Belichick 10/1 6.7% 4 Ron Rivera 10/1 6.7% 6 Pete Carroll 12/1 5.6% 6 Andy Reid 12/1 5.6% 6 Mike Tomlin 12/1 5.6% 9 Gus Bradley 18/1 3.7% 9 Jack Del Rio 18/1 3.7% 11 Marvin Lewis 20/1 3.3% 12 Todd Bowles 25/1 2.7% 12 John Fox 25/1 2.7% 14 Jason Garrett 33/1 2% 14 Adam Gase 33/1 2% 14 John Harbaugh 33/1 2% 14 Gary Kubiak 33/1 2% 14 Ben McAdoo 33/1 2% 14 Chuck Pagano 33/1 2% 14 Sean Payton 33/1 2% 14 Doug Pederson 33/1 2% 22 Jay Gruden 50/1 1.3% 22 Chip Kelly 50/1 1.3% 22 Bill O'Brien 50/1 1.3% 22 Rex Ryan 50/1 1.3% 26 Jim Caldwell 66/1 1% 26 Jeff Fisher 66/1 1% 26 Hue Jackson 66/1 1% 26 Dirk Koetter 66/1 1% 26 Mike McCoy 66/1 1% 26 Mike Mularkey 66/1 1% 26 Dan Quinn 66/1 1%

The heavy favorites are sucker’s bets, I think. After all, the 8 coaches with the best odds are all on returning playoff teams. Jacksonville and Oakland are the sexy sleeper picks this year, so no surprise that Del Rio and Bradley are tied for 9th as the first coaches of non-playoff teams.

But in my opinion, the odds here should be much flatter. So if I was a betting man, I would certainly rather put money on a coach with 50/1 odds or better. But even if I wasn’t getting odds, I think I’m still going with Bill O’Brien this year. Houston was good last year, but if Brock Osweiler hits, and Jadeveon Clowney turns into a star, O’Brien’s Texans will look very good. I think we’ll see O’Brien getting the bulk of the credit for any success in Houston this year, and he’s as good a choice as any.

Who do you like? A team like Dallas is a great bet to exceed their 2015 wins total, but that is already priced into Jason Garrett’s odds. And I don’t feel too great about any of the other teams with low wins totals from last year. As a result, I think O’Brien is my leader, though Ben McAdoo, Dirk Koetter, and Chip Kelly are intriguing picks, too. And, of course, I can’t really disagree with Vegas on liking Bradley or Del Rio as good bets to improve their team’s 2015 wins total. The problem, I think, is that the Coach of the Year voters are already pricing in improvement, so Bradley, Del Rio, and Garrett are all going to be graded on that curve.