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With half the world’s beer produced by four big firms and few markets left for them to tap, the time may be right for a US$100-billion merger between the two largest, Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller.

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This mega-deal is tipped by analysts as the most likely tie-up because of the other two, Heineken is family controlled and Carlsberg is protected by a trust.

Talk that AB InBev might buy SABMiller is not new, but it paused in June 2012 when the former announced a US$20.1 billion deal to take over Mexican brewery Grupo Modelo.

Now, with AB InBev planning to return to a comfortable pre-deal debt-to-EBITDA ratio of below two next year, industry experts are betting on a combination of its Budweiser and Stella Artois brands with SABMiller’s Peroni and Grolsch. Some expect a deal within a year.

It’s more a question of when, not if

“It’s more a question of when, not if,” said a banker who has worked on drinks deals. Others, also speaking on condition of anonymity, cited AB InBev’s record as a serial acquirer and the need for a target to match or surpass its US$52 billion purchase of Anheuser Busch in 2008.