BLS

These projections aren’t just a fun experiment for economic forecasters and journalists who need unfalsifiable predictions to write about. They can help college students pick their major—for example, the projected growth of statisticians augurs well for math—and shape debates about government spending.

At times, however, it seems like nobody at the highest level of government has any clue these reports exist. When President Donald Trump talks about the future of the economy, he often praises steelworkers and manufacturers. But manufacturing is the only major industry projected to decline in the next decade, and steelworkers are projected to add just 9,000 jobs in the next 10 years. That is about the same as the projected increase in drama and music professors at private colleges, an occupation that no politician considers symbolic of the American idea (sad!).

Here are the four major themes of the employment projections.

Health care will take over—or, continue its long takeover of—the economy.

The funny thing about getting old is that, outside of Christopher Nolan films, it is a one-speed phenomenon, which does not yield itself to sudden and surprising news headlines—e.g., “Scientists Stunned As Springfield’s Population Ages 10 Years in One Weekend.” But the greying of the U.S. is quietly one of the nation’s most important economic events.

Aging explains, for example, why jobs are projected to grow 50 percent slower in the next decade than they did between 1996 and 2006. It explains why, since the mid-1990s, the share of the labor force over 55 will have doubled by the mid-2020s—from 12 percent to 25 percent. It may explain the nation’s declining productivity. And it explains why the future of the economy is health care.

Health care’s statistical dominance of the emerging labor force is stunning. Of the 10 jobs projected to grow fastest by percent, five are in health care and elderly assistance. Those five occupations—personal care aides, home health aides, nurse practitioners*, medical assistants, and nursing assistants—account for almost one-fifth of the net new jobs to be created by 2026. Since it’s difficult to automate (and impossible to offshore) the tactile work of caring for a fragile elderly person, these jobs would seem resistant even to the most aggressive implications of AI and machine automation of the labor force.

It’s the end of retail … as America’s most dependable engine of job growth.

In the second half of the 20th century, American stores replaced factories as the most important place for job growth. The retail workforce tripled between 1940 and 2000. Cashier and retail salesperson are two of the most common jobs in the country. But in the last few years, as online retail has grown, retail has taken a beating, with one department store after another declaring bankruptcy.