Andrei Vasilevskiy, who set numerous team records in his first full season as the Lightning’s starter, was invited to Las Vegas as a Vezina Trophy Finalist. An apparent front-runner for the award for much of the season, Vasilevskiy ultimately finished a distant third in voting behind winner Pekka Rinne and runner-up Connor Hellebuyck. In response, many Lightning fans have voiced their displeasure and incredulity at this outcome. We argue, however, that this should not come as a surprise; Vasilevskiy’s stats do not hold up under scrutiny and he was far-and-away the weakest contender of the three named finalists. Indeed, many players ranked below Vasilevskiy were likely more deserving of his Finalist position. Despite this assertion, we are pleased with Vasilevskiy’s performance this season and are very happy to have him on the team.

Which Numbers Matter?

This isn’t a particularly easy question to answer and is always the most controversial part of any piece of this nature, so let’s tackle it first. For most of this article, we’ll be using statistics from Corsica, notably data from any game state (Any) and even-strength (ES). Power play (PP) and penalty kill (PK) statistics are generally problematic as they rely on too few observations, making them unreliable (though this becomes less of an issue as the number of shots faced increases). Additionally, save percentage (Sv%), while a popular statistic, is a flawed measure of goalie success: a goalie’s ability to save a shot is largely a function of the type of shot faced and so their overall save percentage is largely a function of the types of shots allowed by their defense. Instead, we use four different metrics of goalie success: low-danger save percentage (LDSv%), a goalie’s save percentage when facing what are categorized as “low-danger” shots; medium-danger save percentage (MDSv%), a goalie’s save percentage when facing what are categorized as “medium-danger” shots; high-danger save percentage (HDSv%), a goalie’s save percentage when facing what are categorized as “high-danger” shots; and difference in save percentage (dSv%), the difference between a goalie’s save percentage and how the average goaltender would perform when facing the same distribution of shots. Goals against average (GAA) is heavily influenced by the number of shots faced and is ignored in this article, as is a measure of shutouts (SO), which are almost exclusively a function of outliers in data, and wins (W), which is not independent of the performance of a team’s skaters.

We now have a menu of eight data types (AnyLDSv%, AnyMDSv%, AnyHDSv%, AnydSv%, ESLDSv%, ESMDSv%, ESHDSv%, and ESdSv%) to consider when looking at goalie performance. To help reduce outliers and focus on goalies with a larger body of work, we limit ourselves to examining goalies with at least 1500 total minutes on ice, equivalent to 25 full games. We are happy to discuss findings when we increase this threshold but find it has little effect on our results.

How Does Vasilevskiy Perform?

We now know on which categories we wish to evaluate Vasilevskiy. How does he do? The short answer — not well. In the regular season, out of 45 goalies with at least 1500 minutes of ice time, Vasilevskiy was in the top 10 of exactly zero of the eight categories listed above. Additionally, he was ranked in the top 15 in only one (ESLDSv% — 12th) and in the top 20 in only two more (AnyLDSv% — 17th; ESHDSv% — 19th). Even when we restrict to goaltenders with at least 2000 minutes played, Vasilevskiy enters the top 10 in only one category: 6th (of 32) in ESLDSv%. At 3000 minutes, the equivalent of 50 full games, Vasilevskiy is in the top 10 (of 19) for only four categories (AnyLDSv%, AnyHDSv%, ESLDSv%, ESMDSv%).

Vasilevskiy’s relatively poor showing here is not just due to him coming in behind a rotating cast of characters. When we average Vasilevskiy’s even strength rankings, he comes in at 17th of 45 goalies with 1500 minutes played, 10th-T of 32 goalies with 2000 minutes played, and 7th-T of 19 goalies with 3000 minutes played. Certainly tied for seventh is a better showing than what our earlier evaluation showed, but it also isn’t what we’d expect from a Vezina Trophy winner.

Who’s Ahead of Vasilevskiy?

If Vasilevskiy is not leading the pack in these evaluations, who is? At 2000 minutes, the goaltenders leading (or tied with) Vasilevskiy in average even strength rankings are Sergei Bobrovsky, John Gibson, Pekka Rinne, Antti Raanta, Brian Elliott, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jonathan Quick, Tuukka Rask, Frederik Andersen, and Henrik Lundqvist. Outside of Brian Elliott (who had among the worst penalty kill stats of all goalies this season), this is excellent company, and all these goalies should be considered top-tier players. At 3000 minutes, this list shortens to Bobrovsky, Gibson, Rinne, Quick, Rask, Andersen, and Lundqvist.

Should Vasilevskiy Have Won the Vezina?

No. While Vasilevskiy performed heroically for the Lightning for much of the season, putting up a number of stellar performances and making a number of highlight-reel saves, but his overall performance was not at a level to assert that he was the best goaltender in the NHL.

Should Vasilevskiy Have Been a Vezina Finalist?

Probably not. While he certainly had a good season, Vasilevskiy’s perceived success was due in no small part to the success of the Lightning team as a whole, along with a very strong start to the campaign. In our estimation, John Gibson, Antti Raanta, and Pekka Rinne would have been a more reasonable slate of finalists, with John Gibson ultimately winning the award. Still, it’s understandable that with the Lightning’s success this season, along with Vasilevskiy’s early showing, a number of general managers deemed him worthy of the award.

Moving Forward

None of this is to say that Vasilevskiy is anything less than a great goalie. Vasilevskiy has abundant talent and performed admirably for the Lightning. He is also relatively young and has time to continue to improve his game. As he becomes more familiar with a starter’s workload and continues to improve his play, we expect to see Andrei Vasilevskiy at many more Awards shows.