12 Pages Posted: 20 Feb 2020 Last revised: 2 Jun 2020

Date Written: February 18, 2020

Abstract

ABSTRACT

This paper uses new credible non-official sources of data to evaluate the incidence and impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China. Based on the number of reported cremations in Wuhan and on reports of possibly more accurate numbers on cases that appeared briefly on Tencent and were suppressed, we have conducted a modeling study to estimate the incidence and other parameters of the outbreak, including the potential starting time. The numbers for cumulative cases and cumulative deaths coming from the non-official data are all substantially higher by a factor of at least 6 times what is implied by the official Chinese government data. All sets of non-official data used here imply that the coronavirus outbreak began in October or late September 2019.



Funding: There was no financial support for the conduct of the research and/or preparation of the article or for the study design, the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; the writing of the report; or in the decision to submit the paper for publication.





Declaration of Interest: The authors certify that they have NO affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest (such as honoraria; educational grants; participation in speakers’ bureaus; membership, employment, consultancies, stock ownership, or other equity interest; and expert testimony or patent-licensing arrangements), or non-financial interest (such as personal or professional relationships, affiliations, knowledge or beliefs) in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.