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Re: Guidance: Exxon and Venezuela

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 1733427 Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00 From marko.papic@stratfor.com To analysts@stratfor.com

Re: Guidance: Exxon and Venezuela





I am on CANVAS contacts... will email them, although someone should really

try to meet them in person. They were VERY eager to meet us in person last

time I talked to them (dec/jan) and are still eager to meet us in DC.



----- Original Message -----

From: "Peter Zeihan" <zeihan@stratfor.com>

To: "Analyst List" <analysts@stratfor.com>

Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:37:44 AM (GMT-0500) America/Bogota

Subject: Re: Guidance: Exxon and Venezuela



btw -- for those who don't know what CANVAS/Otpor is.....



http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venezuela_new_player_mix



scott stewart wrote:



I'm with Peter that this is far too slick for the Administration and am

also intrigued by the timing of this related to the spinning up of

CANVAS in Venezuela. It seems to fit timing-wise.



Any way we can chat with the CANVAS folks?







-----Original Message-----

From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com

[mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Peter Zeihan

Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:14 AM

To: Analyst List

Subject: Re: Guidance: Exxon and Venezuela



no argument that that the media portrayal of Chavez has picked up



non-ME State has been bled dry in the past five years so i doubt this

is originating there



but remember Otpor? -- media manipulation is one of their specialties



and yes -- it can hurt -- the question is will the final case find for

Exxon -- if that happens it opens up the floodgates



i think ur right that the key thought is "in their spare time" -- this

is too slick and subtle to be US style (certainly not State) -- i

really think Otpor is involved (maybe even in the middle if it)



As to exxon's motivation, this is my biggest point of disagreement --

based on whose numbers you use the CN project is worth $1-$4 billion

-- that's worth going to court for -- most MNCs don't sue because

there are no assets to go after (they're all in country) -- that is

not the case for PDVSA which has substantial intl assets, ergo the

suit -- while i'm sure Bush and Co are egging them on, i see no reason

why Exxon wouldn't have done this anyway



Next steps: Exxon's case will probably be coming soon -- all the legal

and diplomatic groundwork is already laid



for the US is it enough to get rid of Chavez the person? or do you

think the US'd want to bring down his whole circle?



George Friedman wrote:



Been thinking about this. We have seen measurable, but not yet

significant, opposition to Chavez in Venezuela in the past months.

There's a sense in the U.S. media that he's topped out. Media

doesn't know shit about Venezuela. They are getting this stuff from

State Department and NSC backgrounders. Ever since he lost the

constitutional amendment, someone has been creating an aura of

decline. There was huge bad press on the Venezuelan extraction of

the hostages in Colombia. It wasn't all that screwed up. Someone

really good orchestrated the media on that, making it look like he

was taken by FARC, the story on the kid in the foster home. The

whole thing could have been made to look like FARC was a lot more

humane than anyone thought, but it was spun to look like Chavez was

the devil. That was neatly done and whoever did it was good.



Last fall Exxon sues Venezuela. They did not do this without

coordinating very carefully with the White House. This was not

simply a business decision. Exxon would much rather slide through to

another deal than cause a confrontation. That's the way they work.

But here they are, kicking off a nasty fight deliberately, including

a move by Chavez to scare their shareholders. They didn't think of

this themselves. They had more than top cover. Someone encouraged

them.



Chavez has some good lawyers in New York, but once the suit was

filed, the judgment was inevitable. Exxon knows that Venezuela will

delay implementation of the judgment for an eternity. Chavez hit

back with the only thing he could, cutting off sales to Exxon.

Peter's shown that that doesn't mean anything.



I am getting an interesting feeling here. I think the

administration, in its spare time, is maneuvering Chavez back

against the wall. Exxon took a shot at them that I think actually

can hurt. They came back with a response that basically doesn't do

squat. It was their only call.



Theory: the U.S. is trying to destabilize Chavez. Some time around

the election, the U.S. switched from benign neglect to active

information warfare and the Exxon deal is part of it. The U.S. is

trying to throw him off balance and give space for the opposition to

regroup and form.



I don't know that this is true, but Exxon doesn't make moves like

this without close consultation. I also suspect the judgments can

cause real heartburn for the Venezuelans. And his response is

exactly what the administration would have wanted. It looks like

he's nuts but does us no harm.



This would mean that Exxon would start getting even more legally

aggressive, other lawsuits would be filed in a flurry, and Chavez

would get more shrill. The press will be spun to see Chavez as going

nuts. Then an opposition leader would emerge. It would not be the

old guard. It would be someone from inside his coalition who isn't

close to him but can't be touched by him.



Who is that guy. Find him, and then we can walk back the cat, if

such there be.



George Friedman

Chief Executive Officer

STRATFOR

512.744.4319 phone

512.744.4335 fax

gfriedman@stratfor.com

_______________________



http://www.stratfor.com

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

700 Lavaca St

Suite 900

Austin, Texas 78701





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