Two Indian-origin researchers from the University of Cambridge in the UK have come up with a new mathematical model that predicts a flat 49-day nationwide lockdown – or sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation extending over two months – may be necessary to prevent COVID-19 resurgence in India.

The paper by Ronojoy Adhikari in collaboration with Rajesh Singh from the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the university shows that the 21-day lockdown that the India government has imposed is unlikely to be effective and 'there will be a resurgence of COVID-19 at the end of it'.

The model is possibly the first to include "age and social contact structure of the Indian population" when assessing the impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.