The Informer’s 2014 NFL Fantasy Football Preview: Volume I

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“Informer does the title for this article really say ‘NFL Fantasy Football Preview’? You do realize it is July 8th, right? I mean what in the bluest of blue hells could possibly make you want to write about fantasy football before training camps even begin?”

First of all figment of my imagination: you do realize we are only 27 days away from the first NFL preseason game, right? Which means it is exactly the right time to start writing about the National Football League.

Second and more importantly; The Informer could not go another day writing about, thinking about, or talking about NBA free agency. The Informer is not lying, if he hears one more person say the words “sources say” when talking about LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh he is going to physically harm someone (by harm someone The Informer means he is going to slam his head through his computer screen).

Seriously, when did we become a sports society that reports nonstop on topics with only the words “sources say” to back up the story? Furthermore, didn’t we learn anything from the 2014 NFL and NBA Drafts? You know where there were 1,000’s of mock drafts and sources say articles that all ended up being completely wrong about everything.

Listen, there is a reason no one wants to put a name to their “sources say”, and it is because they know the sources are full of sh*t and they are only reporting it so that Skip Bayless and Steven A. Smith have something to talk about on a Tuesday in the middle of July.

Therefore, until Carmelo Anthony actually says the words “I’m taking my talents to Laguna Beach”, or LeBron James proudly says “I will be the next great Los Angeles Lakers” (The Informer has a source who swears LeBron is leaning towards the Lakers . . . And by source The Informer means the figment of his imagination that he talks to after one too many grown up orange juices) The Informer is not going to read about the NBA, tweet about the NBA and he sure as hell is not going to waste anymore of his time –or your time– writing about the NBA.

Now to answer the original question, since The Informer is done with the NBA offseason, he has decided to move up his timeline and dive head first back into the NFL. And obviously the best way to do this is with Volume 1 of The Informer’s 2014 NFL Fantasy Football Preview.

With the idea of jumping head first into the upcoming NFL season, last night The Informer got himself an ESPN account and took part in a free standard rules auction draft. Standard rules means that all ten players in the league start with a $200 salary which has to be used to fill a 16 person roster (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Te, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, 1 Defense and 7 Bench Players). Of course, The Informer kept some notes and is ready to explain exactly what happened in his first draft of the 2014 season.



So without any further ado, here is how The Informer’s first auction team of the 2014 NFL Fantasy Football season.

(The Informer note – I have said this many times before, but it is worth repeating; if you have never taken part in a fantasy football auction draft you are missing out on one of the most fun experiences in fantasy sports. Just saying, the amount of strategy and planning that has to go in to filling your roster, along with the joy of winning a player with the highest bid is truly more fun than a fantasy player should be allowed to have. And while The Informer has nothing against the standard snake drafts, from a competitive and a fun standpoint they just do not compare with a version that allows every member to have a chance to have any player they want on their team.)

Quarterbacks: Andrew Luck ($21) and John “Football” Manziel ($1)

The Informer actually got into a bidding war for Andrew Luck and ended up paying $8 over his projected price. Normally in auction drafts The Informer would tell you to never overpay that severely, but in this case getting Luck for $21 will prove to be one of the steals of the 2014 season.

Also, The Informer thinks this is going to be the last fantasy season you will be able to buy Luck for under $30 which makes this pick that much more impressive.



As for “John Football”, The Informer could not think of a better way to use $1 then to draft a guy who may party his way out of the NFL before the season even begins.

For those that haven’t heard, along with some photos of heavy drinking floating around the internet, there is now apparently a photo of Mr. Football allegedly in a men’s room in Las Vegas rolling up dollar bill in a manner that is usually associated with snorting some sort of illegal drugs. Of course this is all according to “sources say”, but at this point it seems like “Johnny Ballgame” is walking a very fine line with his NFL future.

All “is Manziel going to snort the 50-yard line (allegedly) jokes aside, if “John Football” can keep his nose clean (pun intended) he could turn into a great back up fantasy quarterback this season (when he gets a chance he will make plays), or else we may one day look back and say this was the biggest waste of a dollar in fantasy football history.

Either way, the pick made this article better.

Running Backs: Adrian Peterson ($56), Khirby Robinson ($3), Bernard Peirce ($5), Tre Mason ($1) and Darren McFadden ($2)

The Informer’s first rule about NFL auction drafts: “No matter the cost you always buy Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.”

The Informer’s second rule about NFL auction drafts: “No matter the cost you always buy Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.”

Along with Peterson, The Informer bought Khirby Robinson who happens to be one of the main reasons the New Orleans Saints got rid of Darren Sproles in the off-season. Obviously, if the Saints are that high on the guy then buying him for three bucks is a cheap accusation with a ton of upside.

Same thing about price goes for Bernard Peirce. The Baltimore Ravens back is a cheap gamble with tons of upside considering he will be the Ravens starting RB once the NFL announces Ray Rice’s suspension for his offseason domestic incident (sources say it is going to be multiple games).

And of course, it wouldn’t be fantasy football season without The Informer wasting a few dollars on Darren McFadden.

Seriously Darren: why can’t The Informer quit you?

Wide Receivers: Calvin Johnson ($51), A.J. Green ($37), Riley Cooper ($8) and Kelvin Benjamin ($1)

The Informer really loves this group of receivers. Anytime you can pair up the two best WRs in the NFL (Calvin Johnson and “The Sickness” A.J. Green) on the same fantasy team you have to do it.

Throw in the guy who became the Philadelphia Eagles best receiver at the end of the 2013 season (Cooper) along with a six foot five rookie who is the only WR currently on his team’s roster (Benjamin) and you have a recipe for getting The Informer excited about his July fantasy football team.

Tight End: Jordan Cameron ($10) Eric Ebron ($1)

With the Josh Gordon looming suspension, the Cleveland Browns young tight end is going to become an even bigger part of this offense. Naturally, since Jordan Cameron is going to be a bigger part of the offense, The Informer was ecstatic to get him for such a low price.Honestly, The Informer thinks Cameron is the next best guy for tight ends if you can’t get Julius Thomas or Jimmy Graham at a reasonable price.



As for the Detroit Lions rookie, he is one of The Informer’s favorite early July sleepers.

Defense: Arizona Cardinals ($2)

If you are one of those people who need to waste precious fake auction money on a defense (The Informer would suggest just seeing who the Jacksonville Jaguars or Tennessee Titans play each week and picking up that squad), then buying the young feisty Arizona squad is a great way to go. Not only do they have one of the best secondaries in football, they also have Patrick Peterson and “The Honey Badger” returning punts (which means potential for special team’s touchdowns).

Kicker: Adam Vinatieri ($1)

It does not matter what month we are in, if you spend more than one dollar on a kicker you should not be playing fantasy football.

Conclusion

You may have noticed The Informer spent $159 on four players (Luck, Johnson, Peterson and Green). This strategy is what is known as the “stars and scrubs” strategy where you load up your money on four guys you know are going to give you points and then hope you strike gold with someone in the 1-5 dollar range.

From past experiences, The Informer has found that this approach is the most successful because it leads to the most stable roster as long as your main four guys stay healthy (a big if in the NFL).

The reason this approach seems to work the best is because you know who your studs are, therefore you have less tough decisions to make on who to start each and every Sunday.

For example; let’s say instead of grabbing Calvin, Cooper and one of the backup RBs for $65, The Informer decided to spread the money around to guys like DeSean Jackson ($22), Alshon Jeffery (28) and Wes Welker (15). Now instead of starting Calvin and Green every week at the WR position, you are forced to choose between three very productive WRs to go along side Green.

On paper, this sounds like a great problem to have. In fantasy football however, this is how you end up starting a guy who gives you six points one week while you have two guys on the bench who would have given you 50 points (maybe it is just me, but The Informer always starts the wrong guy).

If you instead follow the “stars and scrubs” formula you can lessen the problem to an extent (you never choose to start the wrong guy), thus leading to more consistent success in the long run.

Remember, your goal in standard leagues should be to average 90 points a week. If you get to 90 every week you will eventually make the playoffs and give yourself a chance to win some of that illegal fake fantasy money.

Well, over the course of his fantasy career, The Informer has found that the best way to reach 90 points is to have four studs that are guaranteed to give you 75-80 points on a weekly basis and then you just have to hope for 10-15 points from the other five positions. In the end, The Informer truly believes this is the best possible strategy for building a fantasy roster.

Finally, The Informer’s biggest take away from his first draft of the year is that you should not overpay for quarterbacks this season. Sure it would be nice to have Drew Brees for $38, but there are really good starters that can be had for way less making it less attractive to spend money on the high end guys. The Informer is talking about guys like Robert Griffin III who went for $10, Jay Cutler who was bought for $2 and Andy Dalton –the starting QB on one of the better offenses in the NFL –who was not even drafted. Those are all starting quarterbacks a person could have gotten for thirty dollars less than any of the top tier guys.

The Informer is not saying having Brees, Peyton Manning or Cam Newton would not be great; he is just saying when it comes to value you can pick up a lesser name who will still give you good fantasy points which in turn will let you buy higher value talent at some of the weaker positions (running back and tight ends).

And yes, The Informer is fully aware that he just told y’all it was a good idea to get into a bidding war and spend $21 on Andrew Luck and now he is telling you to not over pay at the quarterback position.

The lesson as always, The Informer drinks way too much and spends too much of his time doing fake fantasy football drafts in the middle of July.

See you all next week for Volume 2 where The Informer will show you what a non “stars and scrubs” team could look like.



P.S. – Is anyone else really freaking excited to almost have the NFL back? 57 days and counting til Week 1 my friends.