“That being said, there is some truth to the story that there was friction between Sanders and some in the black community. Besides leading the field in support, he also has the highest unfavorables with 14% of black Democratic women feeling negatively toward him. Now the key question is, will Sanders’ support with black Democratic women erode now that Biden has entered the race.” added Kawecki.

Oldest Candidates Leading Polls

Mirroring the results of other recent polls, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden lead the pack both in terms of support and age, being the two oldest of the more prominent candidates. Only former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel, polling at 1.6% is older. First elected to the U.S. Senate in 1960, and serving until 1981, Gravel will be 90 years old on Inauguration Day 2021.

“Obviously, experience can factor into voter preference, but it may also be that, as are part of their personal brands, Bernie and Biden are connecting at a more emotional, authentic level.” said Tom Frederick, a Senior Analyst with VoterLabs.

A Surprising Level of Support for Trump

Interestingly, 29% of respondents had a favorable or neutral opinion of Donald Trump. Of those polled 16% responded that they “really like him” or “he’s okay”, with an additional almost 13% unsure or undecided, a much different picture than the one portrayed in most media.

“Trump’s numbers with black Democratic women show that his populist message still resonates with many. Given that Sanders also has a heavily populist message, and is currently enjoying strong support in this community, Trump’s numbers shouldn’t be that surprising.

“It’s also important to remember that Hillary Clinton badly underperformed with this group in 2016. Turnout among black Democratic women dropped from around 68% in 2008 and 70% in 2012, to about 64% in 2016.

“I think the take away here is that, to avoid a repeat of 2016, an emotionally resonant populist appeal, delivered in a way voters deem authentic, will be key to turning out this crucial Democratic constituency.“ said Walter Kawecki, the firm’s founder and CEO.

“The 2020 presidential contest may well hinge on whether black Democratic women turn out or stay home. Failure to maximize turnout among this potentially pivotal segment of the Democratic coalition could prove disastrous for the party’s nominee. Trump’s number show that Democrats should take this seriously.” added Kawecki