Each day that passes brings us closer to the start of the college basketball season. While it may not be as imminent, the NBA draft draws closer at the same pace. That means there is no better time to do a preseason ranking of NBA draft prospects. For part 1 of these rankings, where I wrote about prospects 120–61 on my board, click here, and for part 2, where I covered prospects 60–31, click here. The non-lottery first round is always an interesting part of the draft to evaluate, and this year is no exception. Remember — I am ranking every eligible prospect, so this list has the potential to shrink a lot before next June. I will get right into the rankings, starting off with a big tier of interesting players.

Tier 6

30. Rodions Kurucs (Barcelona II)

29. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky)

28. Yves Pons (Tennessee)

27. PJ Washington (Kentucky)

26. Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga)

25. Justin Jackson (Maryland)

24. De’Anthony Melton (USC)

23. Shake Milton (SMU)

22. Emmanuel Akot (Arizona)

Rui Hachimura looks to become the first Japanese player selected in the NBA draft. Image courtesy Getty Images.

Versatility is the name of the game for every guy in this tier. You could make a case for each of these players being classified at two, even three different positions. Youth is also a theme; outside of 21 year-olds-to-be Justin Jackson and Shake Milton, every player in this tier will be 20 or younger at next June’s draft. If one thing were to impact this tier most, it would likely be playing time — there is a solid chance that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Yves Pons, PJ Washington, Rui Hachimura, and Emmanuel Akot all come off the bench for their respective teams. That means that a number of these players could end up returning to school eyeing more playing time if they think that it would benefit their stock in a weaker 2019 draft.

Rodions Kurucs seemed like he was gearing up to enter the 2017 NBA draft before withdrawing just 10 days before the event. An athletic wing who lacks a standout skill, the Latvian will receive first-round interest as long as he continues on the trajectory he showed last season. Listed at 6’8”, 200 pounds, Kurucs has the ball handling and versatility to swing between three positions as he adds strength to his wiry frame. Kurucs is at his best on offense slashing to the rim, using his herky-jerky athleticism to make his way to the cup. He is a confident outside shooter who has never been able to convert at elite rates but has solid form on his jumper. He brings exciting energy on defense, but his frame and developing IQ can lead to issues with foul trouble. He needs to improve his discipline on offense as well; he has promising passing vision but has long struggled with turning the ball over, no thanks to his inconsistent handle. In most of his skills, Kurucs has shown promise but has yet to develop any part of his game to a standout level. As a potential stash candidate, he has developmental upside. This season, teams will be watching him closely in hopes that he gets stronger and becomes a better shooter.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may not be among Kentucky’s 5 freshmen McDonald’s All-Americans, but he has the upside to be a major contributor at the college and NBA level. Gilgeous-Alexander stands 6’6” with an impressive 6’10.5” wingspan and a legitimate ability to play point guard. His ball-handling, skill in the pick and roll, and high IQ make him a uniquely oversized floor general comparable to a player like Shaun Livingston. Quicker than he is explosive, Gilgeous-Alexander is inconsistent as a finisher given his still-developing frame and lack of elevation near the bucket. While he does not get a ton of elevation on his jump shot, he is a credible threat from three-point range and will be able to shoot over smaller guards. Defensively, his elite size gives him potential, but his effort level and IQ have really disappointed at times. If he is earning big minutes for John Calipari, it will be because his effort has caught up with his tools on defense. With reserve freshman Jemarl Baker out for a few months, Gilgeous-Alexander will be relied upon even more at the point guard spot alongside fellow freshman Quade Green. SGA is a change of pace from Green, an undersized traditional point guard, and will look to show that his unique abilities are worth a flier in the first round.

Yves Pons (pronounced “eve pawns”) may be the only player in this draft who can rival Kentucky’s Hamidou Diallo in terms of pure physical tools. Pons is built like a linebacker at 6’6” and on top of that has a wingspan reported at over 7 feet. His freakish athleticism allows him to finish dunks from all angles offensively and make all sorts of plays on defense. While it came in a small sample, Pons averaged 4.3 steals and 4.8 blocks per 40 minutes at the 2017 Adidas Next Generation Tournament, showing his nose for the ball on the defensive end of the court. He should be able to switch basically everything as a defender given his elite reach and strength at just 18 years old. Even though his skill level is still developing, he already has skill as a straight-line driver thanks to his explosiveness and has shown a credible ability to shoot from outside. The Haitian-born, France-raised Pons has benefited greatly from growing up in Europe, where he has built a selfless style of play and has the sort of “extra pass” IQ that coaches look for. Still, he is quite raw in many facets of his game, particularly as a ball-handler, and needs to show that he can fill a meaningful role for a Tennessee team that projects to be among the SEC’s worst (despite a collection of promising forwards). Pons might end spending more than one year in Knoxville, but it will be hard to ignore his highlight dunks and chase-down blocks that will make their rounds through NBA draft Twitter, where Pons is a favorite.

PJ Washington will be able to fill a number of roles across various positions for a malleable Kentucky squad. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, Washington brings the requisite size and strength to defend various positions, and he may spend some time defending the center spot this season. Washington excels near the rim on both ends, using his size to make space to pull down rebounds and finish efficiently at the rim. He is also comfortable operating on the perimeter on offense, possessing solid ball-handling ability and great vision as a passer. While he has not been an elite jump shooter to this point in his career, he has workable mechanics from outside and could definitely get hot for a few games this season. Washington’s best trait is definitely his versatility, as his skillset allows to play up to 3 positions on both ends of the floor. He will have to prove himself as a shooter given the inconsistency he has dealt with and show which of his skills will translate to the NBA game. There is not a traditional archetype that Washington fills at the NBA level, and while he has a game more suited for the future NBA than the traditional one, he still will have to prove how he can be a useful player without the ball in his hands and which position he can most consistently defend. One of the most versatile players in the class, Washington will stand out on Kentucky thanks to his ability to fill any role.

Rui Hachimura was fairly unspectacular over 130 minutes as a freshman on a Gonzaga team that lost a close national championship game, but he broke out in a big way at the FIBA U19 tournament this summer as the top option for an exciting Japan squad. Hachimura is a terrific outside shooter at 6’8” and his advanced ball-handling ability also allows him to create his own shots in the mid-range, where he is very comfortable. While he has the strength finish through contact, he is not super explosive off the dribble and is more comfortable pulling up 10 to 15 feet from the cup. Hachimura is a superb rebounder, ranking 3rd in rebounds per game at the FIBA U19s and pulling down 11.7 REB/40 in limited minutes last season. His talent on the boards combined with his ball-handling makes him a terror in transition, especially as he continues to expand his promising flashes of passing vision. On defense, Hachimura is somewhat of a tweener, lacking outstanding lateral quickness and also still working on adding strength to his frame. He fits best in the NBA at the power forward spot but will likely be asked to guard a number of perimeter players this season for Gonzaga. He can use his athleticism and length to block shots from the weak side, and his length overall helps him recover when he gets beat off the dribble. Hachimura has the potential to break out as a scorer on a Gonzaga squad without a clear first option and his shooting ability, athleticism, and size are all attractive from an NBA perspective.

Justin Jackson has been a sexy pick for “top sleeper prospect” leading up to this season thanks to his switch-everything size on defense and reliable shooting ability on offense. However, those quick to stick Jackson in their preseason top-10s are getting a little ahead of themselves. While his size (6’7” with a 7’3” wingspan, 225 pounds) and three-point shooting (43.8% on 4.6 3PA/40) are very impressive, Jackson still has many questions to answer. For one, he shot just 43.8% from two-point range. Most of that was due to his ghastly mid-range shooting (28.2% on 3.7 mid-range shots per 40), which will really need to improve for him to become a more credible pick-and-pop threat. He also struggles to attack closeouts off the dribble, as his handle can get loose at times and lead to turnovers. Jackson had almost 2 times as many turnovers as assists last season, and he will really need to improve as a playmaker in order to be more useful off the ball on offense. Defensively, Jackson has the tools that you look for as a switchable combo forward, but he often had issues with off-ball and help defense IQ. He generally struggled with wild inconsistency as a freshman, so playing with less of a “feast or famine” approach will be key to his stock. When Jackson’s motor is running and he is fully engaged, he will be a tough player to slow down on both ends of the floor. He has solid instincts in many parts of the game and if he can be more productive this season could reach the high draft slot some have predicted for him.

De’Anthony Melton might have the claim to being the best guard defender in this year’s class. Ranked outside the top 200 in the class of 2016, Melton came into USC and made an immediate impact with his tenacity, length, and athleticism on the defensive end of the court. He is an absolute joy to watch on defense, playing with elite physicality and effort on the ball and staying engaged off the ball. Offensively he usually filled a glue-type role for USC, cutting for baskets, generating offensive boards (7.0 REB/40), and showing flashes of a confident jump shot. While he shot just 28.4% on 74 three-pointers, his willingness to take them is promising for his development as a shooter going forward. Even though he posted a solid 5.1 AST/40, Melton lacks advanced playmaking ability over long stretches. He will fit best as an off-guard in the NBA but can handle the ball in a pinch. His unselfishness is a welcome aspect of his play style, as he understands his own limitations as a shot creator. Andy Enfield put Melton in a number of different roles along the perimeter last season, mixing and matching him with star guards Jordan McLaughlin and Elijah Stewart, sometimes playing all three at once and sticking Melton on the opposing small forward. Melton’s defensive ability is not a question at the NBA level, but he will have to show more offensively on a USC team with big expectations.

Shake Milton embodies what Tim Jankovich has modeled SMU to be during his time as head coach of the program that I affectionately call “Three and D University”. After sending “three and D” studs Semi Ojeleye and Sterling Brown to the NBA, Milton is the next Mustang in line to get drafted. Despite standing at 6’7” with a 6’11.5” wingspan, Milton was SMU’s nominal point guard last season. He took big steps as a playmaker, raising his assists from 3.3 per 40 as a freshman to 5.1 last season. While I still think Milton fits best on the wing in the NBA, he is plenty comfortable with the ball in his hands. The other place he is most comfortable is outside the arc, as he has nailed 42.4% of his 316 three-point attempts over his college career. When Milton heats up he is pretty unstoppable; SMU went 13–1 in the 14 games where Milton hit at least 3 threes. Where he struggles is as a driver — he is just a mediocre athlete and has a hard time creating separation. Milton also struggles with general toughness on both ends of the floor, as he is too easily pushed around on defense and needs to show a higher degree of aggressiveness across the board. With the losses of Ojeleye, Brown, and glue guy Ben Moore, Milton will be the unquestioned number one option for SMU this season. If he responds with greater aggressiveness and a higher level of explosiveness, his stock could creep towards the lottery. It will be key for him to take control and not fade into the fray.

Emmanuel Akot could end up being the key glue guy for an Arizona squad that has realistic national championship hopes. At 6’7”, Akot is a legitimate point forward thanks to his awesome ball-handling ability and passing vision. The Wildcats’ lack of depth at the point guard spot could lead to Akot seeing some minutes as a backup point guard, which would provide an interesting lens through which to evaluate him. His handle allows him to make his way to the rim, where he relies mostly on his strength to finish, lacking elite explosiveness or length. He has unorthodox form on his jump shot, bringing the ball across his face, but he can convert from outside and is also useful off the ball thanks to his general cutting and roaming ability. Early on at Arizona, his calling card will be his defensive ability. His size gives him the ability to switch across three, maybe four positions and he plays with a level of tenacity matched by few 18 year-olds. Akot is a safe prospect because of his ability to do many things well, but proving himself as a shooter will likely be key to his stock. He will also need to show that his mediocre length relative to his height (6’9” wingspan) will not be a problem on the defensive end. As he might not earn a ton of run this season, he could be a multi-year college player, but his talent as a playmaker and defender is undeniable.

Tier 5

21. Bruce Brown (Miami)

20. Mitchell Robinson (USA)

19. Dzanan Musa (Cedevita)

18. Ethan Happ (Wisconsin)

17. Jacob Evans III (Cincinnati)

16. Trevon Duval (Duke)

15. Andrew Jones (Texas)

Can Ethan Happ continue to put up ridiculous advanced numbers on a reloading Wisconsin squad? Image courtesy Wisconsin Athletics.

The theme in this tier is “one major flaw”. Each of these players has something about his profile that is holding his back from being ranked inside the top 14, whether it be in regards to a specific skill, age, mentality, or something else. Even so, each of these players has a ton of talent and a definite chance at rising up into lottery territory by next June. With a growing pattern of undervalued talent being found in picks at the end of and just outside of the lottery, this will be an important tier to track.

Bruce Brown returns to Miami as one of the top sophomores in the country, although it is worth mentioning that he is the same age as many seniors, turning 22 next August. Brown has elite explosiveness and size for a combo guard and can use his strength and athleticism to finish at the rim. He has a slight hitch in his jumper where he cocks the ball to the left a bit before his release, but he improved greatly as last season went on and overall shot a promising 34.7% from three. Brown plays with an almost unmatched level of competitiveness (he models his game after Russell Westbrook) which manifests itself on defense and also on the glass (7.1 REB/40). He made strides as a playmaker last season, showing solid feel with the ball in his hands and great vision when driving, particularly as a dump passer. Brown still needs to improve his ball-handling and decision making in order to minimize turnovers if he is going to spend time as a primary creator. He also has struggled with shot selection, a product of his always-running motor that can sometimes get going a little too fast. He also really struggled shooting off the dribble, which somewhat nullifies his ability to create space with his athleticism. Brown brings lots of upside as an ultra-aggressive offensive player and a multi-positional defender who coaches will never want to take off the court. His progression as a shooter will be key to his stock, as hanging around in the low 30s from three will lead to significant questions about whether he can fill a starting role in the NBA.

Mitchell Robinson would be the number one pick in the 2018 draft if teams were trying to draft players with the strangest sets of circumstances. While spurning playing basketball college is not totally unprecedented amongst top recruits (Brandon Jennings, Emmanuel Mudiay, Terrance Ferguson, etc.), Robinson’s plan — at this point — to simply spend the year training is an odd one. Since we likely will not see Robinson play until potentially next year’s NBA draft combine, going off of his high school tape will be what teams and scouts have to do to evaluate his stock. Robinson’s physical profile stands out most, as 7’1” pogo sticks with 7’4” wingspans do not grow on trees. With a 9’3” standing reach, 233 pound frame, and outstanding athleticism, he is one of the few players in this draft who has legitimate rim protector potential at the NBA level. His high hips make it hard to imagine him switching and hedging all that much on the perimeter, but he can certainly block plenty of shots and has above-average mobility. Offensively, he is a supreme lob target, able to throw down alley-oops that other players simply cannot reach. Robinson does not mess around near the rim, slamming dunks with authority. On a per-minute basis, his production as a rebounder and shot-blocker in the EYBL was basically unmatched. He faces legitimate questions about his character and decision-making ability considering his strange saga with Western Kentucky, but his physical talent is very rare and he has a high floor thanks to his presence as a rebounder and defender.

Dzanan Musa is easy to nitpick for a number of reasons — he is skinny, his arms are short, he plays hunched over, and his shot selection can get out of control — but it is hard to ignore the fact that he is just a really good basketball player. He is incredibly talented as a shot creator and scorer all around, and although he has never shot at high percentages from three, he has solid form and unmatched confidence from out there. Musa’s ball handling ability is great at 6’9”, able to create space for his jumpers and get to the rim. He still needs to get a lot stronger in order to get knocked around less on drives, but his great floater game helps him compensate for his struggles finishing. Musa can get overly focused on scoring and freeze out teammates at times, but he has flashed nice passing vision and creativity in the past and has gotten better at not dominating the ball. He is better defensively than one would expect given his mediocre tools (6’8.5” wingspan), great at using his energy to create plays. Adding strength, particularly in his lower body, will be key to his progression on that end. Musa has always scored at a very high level on a per-minute basis and has definitely been overlooked as a prospect given the presence of fellow European prodigy Luka Doncic. His strange hunch is definitely something that is worrisome, but most of the knocks against Musa are things that are easy to improve. If he can play with better discipline and shot selection and continue to get stronger, there will not be a lot that he cannot do on the court. Not turning 19 until May, Musa has plenty of time to improve upon his flaws and show what makes him an elite-level wing prospect.

Ethan Happ might be the hardest player to find a comparison for in this entire class. His unbelievable advanced numbers put him in rare company. Since 2011, only two college players have put up a DBPM of at least 7, a TRB% of at least 18, and an AST% of at least 20: Draymond Green as a senior in 2012 and Happ as a redshirt sophomore last season. The big difference between Green and Happ is Green’s far superior three-point shooting ability, as Happ has not even attempted a three in 2 years at Wisconsin. However, it is worth noting that Green was just 2–17 from three over his first 2 years at Michigan State before shooting 37.9% on 235 threes over his last 2 seasons. Happ shot 1–2 from three in an exhibition victory over Northern Iowa, and if he can become a consistent threat from out there I will find it nearly impossible to keep him out of the top 10. He just does so many things well. Happ is an outstanding rebounder, particularly on the offensive end, and has rare ball-handling and passing ability at 6’10”. He has an amazing feel for the game and understanding of where his teammates are on the floor, able to have an offense ran through him. Happ is an awesome athlete, able to grab and go in transition and finish with authority at the rim. In the half court, Happ has a bag of tricks that he can rely on in the post and uses his ball handling ability to get to the best spots to finish. His passing ability helps to make his offense a well-oiled machine, and if he becomes a consistent three-point threat his offensive game will really have no holes. Happ is similarly outstanding on defense, where his 9.3 DBPM ranked 4th in the NCAA. Not only can he block shots and help protect the rim even given his mediocre size, but he is phenomenal at generating steals and getting out on the break. Happ was the only big man that posted a steal percentage inside the NCAA’s top 20 last season. If his shooting is real, it is hard to find a hole in his game. Even though he will be 22 by next year’s draft, his productivity level and feel for the game are so high that it will be hard to let him stay on the board for long. He is just extremely good at playing basketball.

Jacob Evans III can do just about everything that scouts look for in a modern wing. An explosive athlete at 6’6” with long arms, Evans III’s 210-pound frame gives him the ability to check multiple positions. He is great at getting into a stance, moving his feet, and using his length to disrupt shots. It is clear that the defensive-minded coaching of Mick Cronin has built a solid base of defensive fundamentals for the native Louisianan. Evans III can come up with some exciting chase-down blocks, using his long arms and athleticism to come out of nowhere for highlight plays. This is true on the other end of the floor as well, where he is a nightly poster threat for opposing defenses. He converted 68.5% of his shots at the rim last season, owning all the tools to be a high-level finisher. Evans III is also a knockdown shooter from outside, hitting 38% of his 300 attempts through 2 seasons. While he does not get to the line that often, Evans III has the necessary ball-handling ability to create his own shot, as 68% of his makes inside the arc were unassisted. When his shot is not falling, he can impact the game as a playmaker, as he has solid instincts and great decision-making ability. He had a better than 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio last season, and his vision in creating for others shows up on tape. He still needs to improve his shot selection as he can get antsy in the mid-range and needs to show up more consistently against Cincinnati’s top competition, but Evans III was quietly one of the best players in college basketball as a sophomore (20th in the country in BPM) and is young for a junior, turning 21 just days before the 2018 draft.

Trevon Duval enters his freshman season at Duke shouldering big expectations, as many have hailed him as the point guard the Blue Devils need to win another national championship. A consensus top-8 prospect in the class of 2017, Duval has the athleticism and physical profile that will get him compared to players like Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and other freak athletes at the point guard spot. At 6’2.5” with a 6’9.5” wingspan and a strong 195-pound frame, Duval has all the tools that scouts look for in being able to defend either guard spot. He has great instincts on that end of the court, able to create steals and generate transition opportunities. On a Duke squad loaded with athletes, those transition opportunities will more often than not end in highlight-type dunks. Similar to Dennis Smith Jr. last season, Duval is overlooked as a playmaker because of his hyped athleticism. While not overly experienced or polished in the pick and roll, Duval clearly has high-level vision and a great drive-and-kick ability. When Wendell Carter Jr. and Marvin Bagley III want to step outside and show off their developing three-point shots, they will be thankful that they have Duval attacking the lane and creating open looks for them. He reads the floor very quickly on offense and that is his best asset as a creator. The thing Duval needs to improve most is his jump shot. He has been consistently inconsistent from outside throughout his prep career and even though his mechanics are not broken, the shots just are not falling. Duval has the potential to see his stock slip quite a bit if his jumper looks bad and it harms the Duke offense. As the point guard of one of the nation’s best squads, Duval will be under a microscope all year long. He can shine and explode into the top 10, or he can shrink and fall into the second round.

Andrew Jones returns to Texas after a promising freshman season that was plagued by inconsistency. Jones is a toolsy combo guard, standing at 6’4.25” with a 6’6.5” wingspan and a quick first step. The numbers from his freshman campaign are not spectacular, but context is necessary. After Tevin Mack left the team, Jones was the best shooter left on a Texas squad that was suffocated by its severe lack of spacing. This killed the offense, as the piles of bricks left behind by Kerwin Roach II and Eric Davis Jr. gave defenses the freedom to zero in on Jones. He is smooth as a shooter, particularly off the dribble, and while 32.8% on 5.7 3PA/40 is not great, his 77.5% from the free throw line shows the integrity of his outside shot. He has solid body control as a finisher near the rim, converting 60.4% of his shots there through a usually-clogged lane. Jones has tons of upside on defense, using his great size and lateral quickness to hound opposing ball handlers. He has the requisite athleticism to recover when he is beat initially and the length to generate blocks every once in a while. In a draft class that is already notoriously weak in terms of point guard talent, Jones will stand out even more as a player who is reliable on both ends of the court. He still struggles with certain aspects of understanding defense, often caught watching off the ball and getting a little too jumpy at times. He will also need to make strides as a playmaker, as he can struggle to read defenses in the pick and roll. Jones needs to show better poise as a point guard as he could get rattled at times last season. Still, his tools and two-way upside make him a very intriguing bet in the mid-first round, and possibly higher if his playmaking can take a big leap forward.

Click here to visit part 4 of my board, prospects 14–1.

Rankings recap:

30. Rodions Kurucs (Barcelona II)

29. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky)

28. Yves Pons (Tennessee)

27. PJ Washington (Kentucky)

26. Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga)

25. Justin Jackson (Maryland)

24. De’Anthony Melton (USC)

23. Shake Milton (SMU)

22. Emmanuel Akot (Arizona)

21. Bruce Brown (Miami)

20. Mitchell Robinson (USA)

19. Dzanan Musa (Cedevita)

18. Ethan Happ (Wisconsin)

17. Jacob Evans III (Cincinnati)

16. Trevon Duval (Duke)

15. Andrew Jones (Texas)