In the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has won more states than anyone other than Donald Trump and runs second in delegates won. But is that enough to persuade the anti-Trump forces that the rebellious outsider is now their best hope of blocking the New York billionaire?

Cruz told supporters at his post-election rally Tuesday night in Houston that only he and Trump have a viable strategy to assemble the delegates needed to capture the nomination. That assertion is based on the campaign’s internal analysis of data relating to the contests ahead, as well as on Cruz’s confidence in the organizational prowess of his team and a bit of bravado on the part of the candidate.

“We believe there’s a path for two candidates after tonight who can solve this where it should be, which is among the voters,” Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said as the tallies were coming in Tuesday. “And if we’re not able to get those numbers, then we’re prepared for a convention. I think that’s less than a 50 percent chance, but there is a chance that we end up there.”

Next to Trump, Cruz has run the most successful campaign of any of the 17 GOP candidates who began the race. In the estimation of friends and adversaries alike, he also has run the most disciplined campaign. But at crucial moments, he has fallen short of the kind of performance he has needed to be more competitive against Trump.

That happened in South Carolina. It happened again in the March 1 contests, and yet again Tuesday, when Trump won at least three states — Florida, North Carolina and Illinois. Meanwhile, Ohio Gov. John Kasich won his home state of Ohio, while Cruz’s best showing came in Missouri, where he was running just 1,700 votes behind Trump as the last ballots were being counted Wednesday.

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz invited Marco Rubio and his supporters to join his campaign at a speech in Houston, Tex on Mar. 15. Primary voters took to the polls in five states: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. (Video/Reuters Photo/AP)

[What Rubio’s demise says about the GOP reboot after 2012]

Trump’s victory in Sen. Marco Rubio’s home state of Florida knocked Rubio out of the race, to the delight of the Cruz forces, but Kasich’s Ohio victory prevented the governor from suffering the same fate. The overall result was twofold: Trump widened his delegate lead over Cruz, and Cruz failed to get a head-to-head competition with the front-runner.

“The night was sort of the worst of all worlds for [Cruz] in that he couldn’t point to a Missouri, couldn’t point to an Illinois, couldn’t point to a North Carolina, couldn’t point to one or two states and say, ‘Look, I can compete with Donald Trump and win.’ So it became Kasich’s night,” said Russ Schriefer, a Republican strategist.

That is a critical problem for Cruz. His strategy is built on one major assumption, that if and when the GOP race becomes a two-candidate contest, he can beat Trump repeatedly and decisively. “Donald Trump is a high-floor but low-ceiling candidate,” a Cruz adviser said. “He does not have a path to 51 percent of the vote anywhere in America.

The Cruz camp circulated a memo Tuesday that had been prepared before the results were known. “Not only can Cruz achieve a majority of delegates before the July convention, our projections indicate the Senator has a clear and realistic path to achieve 1,262 delegates while Trump is most likely to receive a total of 827 delegates,” the memo stated.

The memo went on to state that those projections were valid regardless of what happened Tuesday night and even if both Kasich and Rubio stayed in through next week’s contests and Utah and Arizona.

Cruz’s strategy included a series of assumptions beyond the expectation of being able to dominate a two-person race. One is that Cruz can win primaries that are open only to Republican voters and not to independents. Roe noted that all but a few of the remaining 22 contests are closed.

In the three states in which Cruz came closest Tuesday, however, he won only among self-identified Republicans in Missouri while losing among that category of voters in North Carolina and Illinois, according to CNN exit polls.

Cruz’s candidacy also has been hurt by Trump’s successfully cutting into Cruz’s base of support among evangelical Christians. Up until Tuesday, Trump won more evangelical voters in 11 states, while Cruz ran ahead in three, according to exit polls. On Tuesday, Trump won a plurality of evangelicals in Florida, while Cruz won pluralities in Missouri, North Carolina and Illinois. But Cruz has won evangelicals decisively only in a few states.

[Lessons from Youngstown, Ohio]

The Cruz path also relies on success over the next few weeks in Utah and Wisconsin, while assuming a likely Trump victory in Arizona. After that, the campaigns anticipate a big day June 7, the final day of primaries, with a focus on California and its 172 delegates. Beyond that, Cruz advisers expect to “dominate” upcoming state conventions and caucuses.

John Brabender, a GOP strategist and longtime adviser to former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, pointed to what he said are flaws in the Cruz team’s assumptions. First, Trump has effectively co-opted the outsider label that was at the heart of Cruz’s candidacy. Second, Cruz has received few endorsements from party insiders. Third, Kasich claims the role of “adult in the room” and could attract more Republicans looking for that quality, now that Rubio is out.

“It is much more complicated than the scenario Cruz is trying to portray,” Brabender said.

Last week, Cruz won the endorsement of Sen. Mike Lee of Utah. Lee told reporters he expects to be the first of a string of endorsements by elected Republicans. But those could come slowly, given Cruz’s history of fighting the establishment.

“It’s an image he’s worked hard at cultivating: that he doesn’t need these people, he doesn’t need Washington, he doesn’t need the establishment, he doesn’t need his colleagues in the Senate,” Schriefer said. “Now he has to turn it around and say, ‘Maybe you guys can be helpful to me after all.’ ”

Cruz advisers reflect the same confidence the candidate exudes on the trail. “You just have to get him head-to-head, what our campaign has been about since the day after Iowa,” Roe said. “We can win pre-convention. . . . But our path is won on the battlefield.”