A surge in the number of convicted terrorists released from prison is a concern, according to the security minister Ben Wallace, and will be tackled in a revamped counter-terrorism strategy to be unveiled on Monday.

More than 40% of the sentences for terrorism offences handed down over a 10-year period will have been served by the end of the year, a Guardian analysis of figures compiled by the Sentencing Council show.

Of the 193 terms issued for terrorism offences between 2007 and 2016, more than 80 will run out by the end of this year. However, the number of individuals released could be much higher as prisoners are eligible for release halfway through their sentence.



We’re seeing a large group of people who have crossed the Rubicon to becoming radicalised Ben Wallace, security minister

The analysis comes as the home secretary unveils the government’s updated counter-terrorism strategy, and officials say Britain faces a severe threat from Islamist terrorism for at least another two years.

Sajid Javid, the home secretary, will present the renewed Contest strategy on Monday with a speech in central London, a day after the first anniversary of the London Bridge terrorist attack, in which three men killed eight people and injured nearly 50. The assailants were shot dead at the scene.

Asked about the Guardian analysis on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Wallace said: “It is a concern, because what we’re seeing nowadays is a large group of people who have crossed the Rubicon to becoming radicalised.

“That is the mindset they’ve now accepted or adapted, and so we have to move resource to try and disengage, slightly different from deter them in the first place, and also it puts a lot of resource into how we effectively supervise them when they’re released back into the community.

“That’s why we’re piloting, in Contest, the multi-agency approach for some of these individuals that will see us bring to bear broader public sector agencies, and indeed even the private sector, and focus on them.”

In his speech, Javid will call for greater co-operation from business in stamping out terrorism, and tackling the “safe spaces” in which it operates: “That includes faster alerts for suspicious purchases, improving security at crowded places across the UK, and reducing the vulnerability of our critical infrastructure.”

He wants firms to raise the alarm when they spot worrying buying-patterns, or suspicious behaviour while hiring a vehicle, for example.

Quick guide British jails in jeopardy Show Hide Overcrowding The current male and female prison population is 84,255, having almost doubled in 25 years. Analysis suggests jails in England and Wales are holding more than 10,000 prisoners than they were built for, with two-thirds of prisons classified as overcrowded. Self-harm Currently at record levels, with 42,837 incidents – an average of 117 a day – documented during the year to September, an increase of 12%. Already it looks like it will be higher this year with 11,904 incidents recorded during the last quarter, equal to 130 a day. Eight inmates a day will be admitted to hospital. There is a suicide in prison every five days. Assaults Again, at record levels with 28,165 incidents documented during the 12 months to September 2017, a 12% increase. Of these, 7,828 were assaults on staff . Already at unprecedented levels, the rate continues to escalate. During the last quarter of 2017, another record high was set with assaults rising to 86 a day. Staffing numbers The Ministry of Justice is now increasing prison officer numbers following dramatic cuts. Latest figures reveal a rise from 17,955 in October 2016 to 19,925 in December 2017. In 2010 there were 27,650. Reoffending rates The number of adults reconvicted within a year of release stands at 44%. For those serving sentences of less than 12 months, this increases to 59%.

Wallace told Today that part of the new strategy would involve declassifying some information from security services about terrorist threats and sharing it more widely. “This is not about people who are the hardened attack planners, out there plotting or being active right now,” he said. “That will remain predominantly the preserve of the intelligence services and the specialist policing.”

But investigations into such people would throw up links to others in more supporting roles, he added. “That creates a large pool of people who are currently not active, but present a real challenge because they are the ones that often appear in some of the attacks that we saw last year – they have been known but have not crossed into that current activity that means we need to do something about it.”

The hope was to “broaden the system to flag up when those people are behaving suspiciously”, for example running checks when people under suspicion rent a van.

In his speech on Monday morning, Javid will say there has been a “step change” in the threat from terrorism, and draw a comparison between Islamist extremists and far-right terrorists.

“The biggest threat is from Islamist terrorism – including al-Qaida – but particularly from Daesh [Isis]. But the threat doesn’t only come from Daesh.

“Extreme rightwing terrorism is also an increasing threat. Daesh and the extreme right wing are more similar than they might like to think,” Javid will say. “They both exploit grievances, distort the truth, and undermine the values that hold us together.”

Javid will announce plans to bring forward legislation giving the government new powers to disrupt terrorist threats at an earlier stage; and to step up the pressure on tech companies to remove extremist material.

He will also reaffirm his support for the government’s much-criticised Prevent programme, which is aimed at avoiding radicalisation. The shadow home secretary, Diane Abbott, has called for Prevent to be reviewed, and claimed that it can be counterproductive; but Javid will say “misapprehensions around Prevent are often based on distortions” and he “absolutely supports” the scheme.

The Guardian analysed figures related to the number of offenders by median average sentence. The data exclude those offenders given life and indeterminate sentences. Of the 90 sentences handed down for the preparation of terrorist acts – effectively attack planning – in the decade to 2016, almost a third will have been spent by the end of this year. A further 23 will be spent in 2019.

Ian Lawrence, the general secretary of the probation union Napo, said the service was already stretched. “Our members are overworked and understaffed, resulting in enormous pressures on them to do an extremely challenging job,” he said.



“We must properly resource our probation services and bring them back in public ownership if we are to ensure a high-quality service with public protection at its heart.”