Afghans will determine their own fate, says defence secretary, as MPs warns country could descend into civil war within years

The defence secretary has admitted that no one can predict what will happen to Afghanistan after British, US and other Nato troops end their frontline role there at the end of 2014, and stressed that only the Afghan people can find a lasting solution to the country's violence, corruption and lawlessness.

Philip Hammond's remarks came as the Commons cross-party defence committee warned that Afghanistan could descend into civil war within a few years and suggests that the British government's attitude towards the country is one of simply hoping for the best.

Hammond told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the UK had intervened in Afghanistan to protect its national security and had never intended to stay for a protracted period.

"Afghanistan is an incredibly complex society; a multiethnic society that was very fragmented before we started," he said. "Our ability to influence outcomes is very limited."

He defended the long deployment of British troops, saying their actions had brought about "the removal of international terrorists able to use Afghanistan as a base" and helped train the Afghan national security force, which "can and, increasingly, is holding the ring" on the insurgents.

"The sacrifices have been huge and we will never forget the sacrifice that has been made to deliver the security of Britain and our allies," he said.

"It was always clear that this could not be an open-ended intervention. We had to create the conditions where we would eventually be able to withdraw and allow the Afghans to maintain their own security so our security was protected.

"While the situation is not perfect we have come a long way to being able to deliver that objective."

The defence secretary also said it was clear that "the long-run solution to security has to be an Afghan solution; it cannot be imposed from outside". History, he said, had shown the futility of such attempts.

Asked about the committee's warnings, Hammond said it had been offered a range of views as to Afghanistan's future, which ran from the overly optimistic to the possibility of civil war.

"I completely accept nobody can say with certainty what the future for Afghanistan will be, but what I can say is that the future of Afghanistan will have to be determined by the Afghan people," he said.

Former British ambassadors to Afghanistan told the Commons committee that Nato's understanding of the Taliban was limited, that "corruption and abuse of power was intrinsic in Afghan society" and that the country's economy depended heavily on the drugs trade.

The MPs warned that the start of an Afghan-led peace settlement with the Taliban was vital to ensure the country's stability and security after the withdrawal of British troops next year. But they added that coalition forces' lack of progress in reducing violence in the country "does not augur well for improving security and economic development on a long-term sustainable basis".

The committee also criticised the government for failing to combat the perception that the pullout amounted to "withdrawal through fatigue".

Publication of the report came a day after the government announced that the last group of Royal Marines to be deployed in Afghanistan was returning to the UK. Troops from 40 Commando Royal Marines were based in the Nahr-e Saraj district. The 7,200-strong Royal Marine Corps has deployed commandos to Afghanistan 12 times since 2001, and troops from 40 Commando were the first British soldiers in the country that year, securing Bagram airfield and patrolling the streets of Kabul.

The defence committee said the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign Office took an optimistic view of the future yet gave very little information about how they planned to be involved in Afghanistan beyond 2014,

James Arbuthnot, chairman of the committee, said: "We have received starkly opposing predictions for Afghanistan's outlook, post-2014. The fact is that the UK has limited influence."

The report concludes: "We hope that Afghanistan can become a secure, prosperous and flourishing country but we are concerned that Afghanistan could descend into civil war within a few years."

Some ground may have to be given in negotiations with the Taliban but the committee stressed the importance of open and free elections and said the rule of law and human rights should not be compromised in any settlement. The committee said that all Afghan people, including women, must be involved in the peace process. If women were excluded as a consequence of negotiating with the Taliban, the progress made could easily unravel, the MPs warned.

"If the UK is to continue to provide financial and training support to Afghanistan post-2014, there needs to be a clear articulation of the areas the UK will fund and support and the outcomes it expects to achieve," the report said.

"It must be clear to those engaged in the peace negotiations that, in providing support in the future, the UK will be paying close attention to the progress on the rights of women, children and minority groups, the tackling of corruption and the furtherance of the rule of law".

The report also claimed that not enough was being done to train and equip Afghan security forces properly. Concerns remained over the capability of Afghan forces to fill the gap left by withdrawing coalition forces, particularly in terms of helicopters, close air support and logistics, the committee said.

"We are concerned that the ANSF [Afghan national security forces totalling about 350,000] will reduce its strength by over a third on current plans based on the expectation that the insurgency will have been diminished," the report adds. "The government should urge the international community to develop a contingency plan in case the level of the insurgency does not diminish".