Sirius Founder: You’re 10 Years Too Late, Karmazin



Is it too late for Sirius XM? CEO Mel Karmazin and John Malone, whose Liberty Media (LINTA) just tossed the foundering satellite radio outfit a $530 million lifeline, clearly don’t believe so. So do the company’s long-suffering investors who continue to stand by it, though their faith has been sorely shaken.

But the same cannot be said for Martine Rothblatt, the entrepreneur who founded Sirius (SIRI) nearly 20 years ago. She feels Sirius’s chances for real success may have died years ago–dealt a mortal blow by the FCC, which delayed its launch, depriving it of the competitive advantage it might have had over MP3 players like the iPod and later free Internet radio services.

“There has been a huge growth in terrestrial alternatives,” Rothblatt told Fortune. “As we move from third-generation to fourth-generation cellular, there’s going to be ever more bandwidth available to distribute content totally via terrestrial cellular infrastructure. And that will leave fewer and fewer unique market attributes to satellite radio. Technologies have their ideal times and places, and in my opinion the better time for satellite radio was 10 years ago.”

So much for that first-mover advantage…

A grim assessment for Sirius, which had just seemed to be getting an edge on its daunting troubles. But Rothblatt has a point. Internet radio is gaining traction and once cellular networks evolve to the point where they can deliver it to cars and other devices, how can satellite compete? Howard Stern’s going to retire sooner or later…

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