Greece have very slim shot at Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs



Despite a slim chance, Greece still have mathematical hopes of qualifying for the EURO 2020 playoffs via the UEFA Nations League set up. AGONAsport’s Sarantos Kaperonis takes a look at the two scenarios that will send Greece to the playoffs.

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With the introduction of the UEFA Nations League, the qualifying process for UEFA EURO 2020 is a complex one. The qualifying path itself is straightforward as EURO 2020 qualifying consists of 10 groups, each with five or six teams, with the top two teams from each group qualifying for next summer’s main event. However, 24 teams will compete at EURO 2020 and the final four spots will be awarded to the four playoff winners. Discovering which teams will compete in the playoffs is a method that requires lots of pen and paper.

The EURO 2020 qualifying playoffs

The playoffs will consist of 16 teams, with just four winners, and are directly tied to the final rankings of the inaugural UEFA Nations League that took place last fall (September - November 2018). Unlike previous editions, the participants of the play-offs will not be decided based on results from the qualifying group stage.

The sixteen teams will be divided into four paths, each containing four teams, with each play-off path featuring two single-leg semi-finals, and one single-leg final. The four play-off path winners will join the twenty teams which have already qualified for UEFA Euro 2020. The matches will take place on 26 and 31 March 2020.

The 16 teams will be selected based on their performance in the 2018–19 UEFA Nations League. Each league will have its own play-off path if at least four teams are available. The Nations League group winners will automatically qualify for the play-off path of their league. If a group winner has already qualified through the conventional qualifying group stage, they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team in the same league. However, if there are not enough teams in the same league, then the spot will go to the next best team in the overall ranking. However, group winners cannot face teams from a higher league (an important stipulation for Greece in scenario two).

UEFA Nations League Rankings - League C

Since Greece finished third in Group B of League, Greece sit 33rd in the overall UEFA Nations League rankings.

25. Scotland

26. Norway

27. Serbia

28. Finland

29. Bulgaria

30. Israel

31. Hungary

32. Romania

33. Greece

Despite Greece holding a poor position in the UEFA Nations League rankings, there are still two scenarios that see Greece claim a spot in the Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs. Many unlikely things needs to happen for the national team to squeak their way into the playoffs, however mathematically chances are still there

Greece Qualify for EURO 2020 playoffs - Scenario 1

The first of two scenarios that sees Greece qualify for the EURO 2020 qualifying playoffs is if:

Norway or Romania (are in the same qualifying group), Serbia, Finland, Israel, and Hungary all qualify for EURO 2020 via the EURO 2020 qualifying process.

How would this pan out for Greece? Well, there are four playoff spots available to teams in League C of the Nations League. Currently, the four League C group winners, Scotland, Norway, Serbia, and Finland hold a ticket to the EURO 2020 qualifying playoffs from League C. However, each team mentioned above that qualifies for EURO 2020 directly from the qualifying process will allow the next best team from League C to take their place in the playoffs.

Scotland will not qualify for EURO 2020 via the direct qualifying process and thus are assured a place in the playoffs. Thus three League C playoff spots remain.

Norway and Serbia are still able to qualify directly from their respective groups while Finland are in pole position to qualify for EURO 2020. If all three teams mentioned above qualify for the main event from the qualifying process, they would be replaced by Bulgaria, Israel, and Hungary (in that order) for the EURO 2020 playoffs.

Bulgaria cannot qualify directly, thus two playoff spots remain. Israel can still qualify, although they seem the least likely of the bunch to qualify.. If they do, their place will be taken by Romania, and if Hungary also qualify (are currently second in their group), then Greece will steal the final playoff post in League C. Note: Norway and Romania are in the same qualifying group so if either one of these teams qualify, it will be beneficial for Greece.

This would mean that Scotland, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece will makeup the Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs of League C and will fight for one ticket to Euro 2020.

Norway/Romania (Group F): Currently Romania sit in third place with 14 points while Sweden are second with 15 points. Norway are third with 11 points. In matchday nine, Romania will host Sweden in a key fixture while Norway host the Faroe Islands. In matchday 10, Norway travel to Malta, Romania travel to Spain, while Sweden host the Faroe Islands. At the end of the day, Greece need Norway or Romania to finish in second place ahead of Sweden.

Serbia (Group B): Currently, Serbia sit in third with 10 points, one point behind second placed Portugal. Serbia will need all six points when they host Luxembourg and the Ukraine in the final matches while Greece will need a Portuguese slip up at home to Lithuania or away to Luxembourg - a lot to ask for from Fernando Santos’ men.

Finland (Group J): Finland can clinch second place when they host Liechtenstein on matchday nine as they hold a five-point lead over third-placed Armenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Israel (Group G): Israel are in a three-way tie for third with 11 points while Austria sit comfortably in second with 16 points. Austria host Skopja on matchday nine and travel to Latvia on matchday 10 with a win in either fixture clinching their place to EURO 2020. Israel host Poland and Slovakia in their final fixtures.

Hungary (Group E): Hungary sit in second place of Group E with 12 points while Slovakia and Wales trail by two and four points, respectively, with both nations having a game in hand. On matchday nine, Slovakia travel to Croatia while Wales travel to Azerbaijan - Hungary have a bye. On matchday 10, Hungary travel to Wales and Slovakia host Azerbaijan.

Greece Qualify for EURO 2020 playoffs - Scenario 2

If the unlikely scenario one does not occur, there is another scenario that will see Greece qualify for the EURO 2020 playoffs. All four must occur below:

In Group B, Serbia must finish ahead of Portugal In Group C, Northern Ireland must finish ahead of either Germany or Holland In Group D, Ireland and Denmark must remain above Switzerland In Group E, Hungary and Slovakia must surpass Croatia All the remaining teams that are currently in the top two of their group, remain in the top two and qualify for Euro 2020 (Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Turkey)

How does this pan out for Greece? Well, the key is the stipulation that a Nations League group winner cannot play against a team from a higher league (see above) in the playoffs. With the above results, League A’s playoff path will consist of Portugal, Switzerland, Croatia, and either Germany or Holland. Iceland will be the only eligible team from League A to play in the playoffs, however, they cannot play in a lower League’s playoff (B-D), because these three League paths contain a Nations League group winner.

As mentioned above, if a team that has qualified for the playoffs via the Nations League, but has already secured a place at Euro 2020 via the qualifying process, the next best team from that League will enter the playoffs. If no team is available from that League (have already qualified for Euro 2020), the best team in the overall Nations League ranking will take the respective team’s place. With the above scenario, the League B path would only have two League B teams in the playoffs, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Wales. Iceland from League A would be the next best team in the overall ranking to enter the League B playoff system, however since they are competing in a League A and Bosnia are a group winner from a lower League, then Iceland cannot join League B’s playoff path.

As a result, the next best teams from League C will be selected to join the League B playoff path. With the above scenario, Scotland, Norway, Bulgaria and Israel would play in the League C playoff, Finland and Hungary would qualify for Euro 2020 directly, meaning the next best two League C teams, Romania and Greece, would be moved up into the League B playoff path with Bosnia and Wales.

Serbia (Group B): See scenario one.

Northern Ireland (Group C): Northern Ireland are currently third in their group with 12 points while both Holland and Germany are tied for first with 15 points. Northern Ireland host Holland on matchday nine while Germany host Belarus. Northern Ireland will have to defeat Holland by two or more goals to have the head-to-head-tiebreaker over Holland (lost first game 3-1) before having a difficult task away to Germany on matchday 10. Holland host Estonia on matchday 10.

Ireland/Denmark (Group D): Both Ireland and Denmark lead the group with 12 points while Switzerland are point behind in third place. Ireland, however have played one extra game. On matchday nine, Denmark host Gibraltar, Switzerland host George, and Ireland have a bye. On matchday 10, Switzerland travel to Gibraltar while Ireland and Denmark clash in Dublin.

Hungary/Slovakia (Group E): See scenario one

The scenarios above are highly unlikely, but the fact that there is small mathematically hope keeps Greek fans attentive across Europe in these final qualifiers.

As a side note, Greece’s final game against Estonia in the 2018 UEFA Nations League was not so indifferent after all, as many had thought. In fact, the loss to Estonia in the Nations League finale is currently keeping Greece out of contention for a Euro 2020 qualifying playoff spot. Had Greece simply drawn (not even won) Estonia on the final matchday, the Ethniki would have claimed second place in the group, had a Nations League ranking of 31 (instead of 33), and be in a great position to qualify for the Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs.



