Tony Leys

tleys@dmreg.com

© COPYRIGHT 2016, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY

Bernie Sanders might slip in the Iowa caucuses' delegate tally because his support is relatively concentrated in college towns, the new Iowa Poll suggests.

The U.S. senator from Vermont, who is favored by many young liberals, holds a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in Black Hawk County, home to the University of Northern Iowa; Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa; and Story County, home to Iowa State University. His support tops hers by 52 percent to 30 percent in those counties, the poll shows.

Those three counties account for 27 percent of his supporters, though they hold just 21 percent of all likely Democratic caucus participants, poll director Ann Selzer said.

Here’s the potential problem for Sanders: Success on caucus night isn’t judged by how many Iowans back a candidate. It’s based on how many “delegate equivalents” those supporters garner at their precinct caucuses. Each precinct elects only a certain number of delegates. So if a candidate’s supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.

MORE ON POLL:

David Redlawsk, a Rutgers University professor who studies the Iowa caucuses, said the effect could be more pronounced this year than it was in 2008, the last time Democrats had a contested presidential caucus.

That year’s caucuses were held Jan. 3, when most university students were home on winter break, said Redlawsk, who was a University of Iowa professor at the time. If they caucused, they likely did so in their hometowns, contributing to increased delegate counts for their candidates there. That mostly would have benefited Barack Obama, who was the favorite of many young voters.

This year, with the caucuses on Feb. 1 and the universities in session, students who want to go home for the caucuses could face missed classes and long drives on icy roads.

Another wrinkle this year: Out-of-state students at Iowa universities, who will have returned to campus for the spring semester, could legally register as Iowa voters and participate in caucuses in their college towns, Redlawsk said. That scenario could benefit Sanders.