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Photographer: Kerim Okten/Bloomberg Photographer: Kerim Okten/Bloomberg

Russian gas keeps the lights on in Turkey.

Over the centuries, the two nations have been sworn enemies yet also pragmatic neighbors able to set aside their mutual mistrust when economic interests were on the line.

Here's why President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's threats to break trade ties over Vladimir Putin's escalating military campaign in Syria ring hollow.

Energy

Nearly 75 percent of Turkey's energy use is derived from outside sources, with Russia alone accounting for one-fifth of Turkey's energy consumption, more than any other. Russia's Rosatom is scheduled to start building Turkey's first nuclear plant next year and the two countries are also partners on a major new natural gas pipeline, known as TurkStream, which will eventually allow Russia to send its natural gas into the heart of Europe via the Turkish-Greek border rather than through embattled Ukraine. Gazprom, the world's largest natural gas producer and a TurkStream signatory, recently announced that the project would be delayed and capacity cut. Turkey represents Gazprom's second largest market after Germany.

Trade

As far back as the 16th century, trade already flowed regularly between Istanbul — then known as Constantinople, capital of the Ottoman empire — and Moscow. At the time, the Turks exported everything from silk to precious stones while tsarist Russia sold mainly commodities such as furs. As recently as the late nineties, trade between modern-day Turkey and Russia remained fairly balanced. Putin's visit to Turkey in 2004, the first by a Russian head of state in more than three decades, marked a turning point. The year after, he hosted Erdogan at his summer retreat along the Black Sea Coast. Turkey now imports more from Russia than from any other country, including plenty of natural gas and petroleum.

Erdogan was in Moscow to open a new mosque on Sept. 23, predicting that bilateral trade would grow to $100 billion by 2020. A week later, Russian airstrikes began in support of the Assad regime with MiG jets repeatedly violating Turkish airspace.

The aggression drew a stern warning from Erdogan: "If necessary, Turkey can obtain gas from very different places. Russia should think well." But that would leave a big gap. Iran, another main energy supplier, also supports the beleaguered Syrian leader.

Tourism

Aside from its reliance on Russia for its energy needs, Turkey also looks to wealthy Muscovites to keep its hotels and vacation spots busy. Just across the Black Sea, Turkey, and especially its southern Antalya region, has long been popular among Russian tourists, attracted by low prices, sunshine and no visa requirements. Except lately their numbers have slumped amid Russia's economic crisis and the weakness of the ruble. The Turkish Hoteliers Federation estimates the number of Russian tourists may decrease by up to 1.5 million this year, leading to potential losses of $4.5 billion.

Geopolitics

Turkey and Russia's complex relations date back five centuries, with the two powers vying for influence over the Black Sea and Caucasus region. Though they last fought each other during World War I, they were on different sides during the Korean War and throughout the Cold War. Relations improved with the collapse of the Soviet Union — when they stopped sharing a border — but some tensions never disappeared. Turkey is a member of NATO, which Russia has long seen as an existential threat, and the two countries have recently sparred over Ukraine and Cyprus, as well as now Syria.

Behind all of Erdogan's bluster over Putin's next-door bombing raids, there is the underlying reality that without Russia, Turkey's economy will surely suffer.

(For more economic analysis, see Benchmark.)