Pennsylvania was the linchpin of Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, but it could be ground zero of Democrats’ 2018 comeback. Not only are the incumbent Democratic senator and governor prohibitive favorites to win reelection, but Democrats could also pick up as many as a half-dozen congressional seats — roughly a quarter of the seats the party needs nationwide to win back the House.

Fewer than two years after Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Pennsylvania since 1988, a new POLITICO/AARP poll shows both Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf with double-digit leads over their GOP challengers. And Democrats have a slight edge on the generic congressional ballot — which, combined with a new, court-imposed congressional-district map unwinding GOP gerrymandering, portends major gains in next month‘s elections.


The top issue for voters in Pennsylvania is health care: Nearly 3 in 4, 74 percent, say it’s “very important” to their vote in November, out-rating the economy and jobs (72 percent), Social Security (67 percent) and national security and terrorism (65 percent). For voters 50 and older, Social Security (81 percent) only slightly outpaces health care (79 percent).

In the Senate race, Casey leads Rep. Lou Barletta by 15 percentage points, 47 percent to 32 percent. Casey leads Barletta — a four-term congressman who forged his political identity as an immigration hard-liner as the then-mayor of Hazelton, Pa. — by a similar margin among voters 50 and older, 49 percent to 34 percent.

Casey is one of 10 Senate Democrats seeking reelection this year in a state Trump barely won in 2016. But like his colleagues in other Midwestern states — Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin — he is a strong favorite for reelection. (The POLITICO/AARP poll was conducted October 1-2 — during the controversial Supreme Court nomination fight of now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh — a time considered a high-water mark for Republican enthusiasm.)

Wolf, meanwhile, has a 12-point lead over former state Sen. Scott Wagner, 48 percent to 36 percent. Wagner has struggled to gain traction in his effort to unseat Wolf. The Republican released a Facebook video last week, in which he tells the incumbent, “Gov. Wolf — let me tell you — between now and November 6, you better put a catcher’s mask on your face because I’m going to stomp all over your face with golf spikes.”

With both statewide races looking less competitive, the focus in the state is shifting to congressional elections. Democrats have already started to chip away at the GOP’s domination of the delegation: In March, Democrat Conor Lamb won a special election to replace a Republican, former Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned in scandal last year.

Their chances to make further gains were turbocharged earlier this year, when the state Supreme Court ordered the implementation of a new congressional-district map. It found the old one, drawn by Republicans after the 2010 election, was a gerrymander so egregious that it violated the state constitution. In the three elections held under the old map — 2012, 2014 and 2016 — Republicans won 13 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, even in 2012, when Democratic candidates, on aggregate, won more votes than Republicans.

The POLITICO/AARP survey shows Democrats with a 3-point lead on the generic ballot among all voters, 43 percent to 40 percent. The two parties are running neck-and-neck among voters 50 and older. Currently, eight House districts are rated by POLITICO as “solid” or “likely” Democratic, while six are “solid Republican.” Another four seats are firmly in play.

Health care is dominating many of these races. Both Casey and Wolf — like Democrats all across the country — have hammered their GOP opponents on health care issues. Casey’s latest ad hammers Barletta for voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act and threatening protections for Pennsylvanians with pre-existing conditions.

It’s a marked reversal from previous election cycles, when Republicans used the then-unpopular health care law as a cudgel against Democrats. But now, the POLITICO/AARP poll shows more Pennsylvania voters support the law, 47 percent, than oppose it, 41 percent.

While Casey and Wolf — and most of the Democratic House candidates on the ballot this year — tout Obamacare’s protections, few are willing to go as far as some more liberal candidates in other parts of the country who are promoting a so-called “Medicare-for-All,” or single-payer health plan. The POLITICO/AARP finds support for a new, national health plan in which all Americans would receive their insurance from a single, government plan: 52 percent support it, while 28 percent oppose it. Among voters 50 and older, 46 percent support a national health plan, and 36 percent oppose it.

The POLITICO/AARP poll was conducted October 1-2, surveying 1,188 registered voters in Pennsylvania (toplines, crosstabs), including an oversample of 516 voters 50 and older (toplines, crosstabs). Interviews were conducted online by Morning Consult. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the overall sample, plus or minus 4 percentage points for the oversample of older voters.