A political earthquake is rumbling in the Central Valley over water, and it could cause a real tsunami for the Democrats in the 2010 elections if they don't handle it well.

That's the message I'm getting from my Blue Dog Democrat friends in farm country.

Rep. Jim Costa, D-Hanford (Kings County), told me unemployment in his district is running at 35 to 45 percent. The once-fruitful federal farm subsides are drying up and so is the water, with people blaming the Democrats on both counts.

The perception is that folks like Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, and environmental activists are orchestrating a policy out of Washington that says "yes" to water for the delta smelt and "no" to water for crops. Anger over putting fish before jobs in these lean times is running as strong as any anti-war, anti-Enron feeling we had up here in the Bay Area during the Bush years.

Not only could the fish fight lead to a split within the Democratic Party, it could also be just the issue Republicans are looking for when the environmentalists' best friend in the Senate, Barbara Boxer, faces re-election in 2010.

Speaking of the 2010 races, I called Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Campbell to invite him to the Willie Brown Institute breakfast Nov. 3.

He was at a Denny's somewhere in the valley, having breakfast with a would-be supporter.

"Now let me understand this," I said. "You're in a Denny's for a one-on-one? How important can that person be if you're in Denny's?"

I had to compliment him, however. Whatever you think of Tom's politics, he is the only candidate for governor who has clearly spelled out his agenda for the state. The rest are still talking in feel-good generalities.

I took a walk through downtown Thursday night and once again was reminded what a fascinating city San Francisco is.

I started off down around the Embarcadero, where there were more homeless than I could have imagined camping under the freeway ramps. But they were all arranged in order, as if they were condo owners or something.

Over on Market Street, where the brick sidewalks were still wet from being washed and reflecting the light, I struck up conversations with security guards and the like. All the while I kept my cell phone open - just in case.

As I passed by two ladies of the night, one asked me, "Who you talking to?"

"My buddy at Central Station," I replied, and with that they were gone.

I don't know about you, but I've absolutely had it with this laptop business.

I was leaving the restaurant at W recently and there were four people having breakfast at a table, each one with a laptop.

I went into Starbucks and everyone in the place was staring at computer screens. Not one soul was talking. It was as if they were all isolating themselves from the outside world.

I decided to sit next to one guy and see what he was looking at. He wasn't checking anything. There was not a damn thing on that screen.

The new hot spot has opened, or should I say reopened. It's the Quince on Pacific at Montgomery. It is at least twice the size of the old one, but the food and service are as impeccable as ever, right down to the marble butter dishes.

As I told the owner, Lindsay Tusk, "You did the ultimate remodel. You have a new house in an old kitchen."

Dick Blum was there working the place, as if he were the politician in the family.

I got into a cab the other night and the first thing the driver wanted to talk about was Mayor Gavin Newsom naming his baby Montana.

"It could have been a lot worse for the little girl," the cabbie said.

"He could have picked Idaho."