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Alabama has the highest rate of conceal-carry permits in the country, but the research is mixed about whether that makes residents safer.

Nearly a half-million Alabamians are licensed to carry concealed guns, according to records requested from every county by AL.com.

That is more than 12 percent of the state's adult population, which likely places it No. 1 in the entire nation.

AL.com compiled pistol permit data from all 50 states. Much of it came from the Pennsylvania-based Crime Prevention Research Center. In some cases, more recent data came from state governments. In most cases, the statistics are from within the last year, but the precise dates vary.

Still, a fairly comprehensive snapshot emerges. It appears only Utah has more conceal-carry licenses per capita than Alabama. But it is one of a handful of states that issue licenses to non-residents. Take those out, and Alabama is No. 1. South Dakota, which also exceeds 12 percent of the adult population, is close.

AL.com gathered records from all over the state to answer the question: Do all these guns – and permits to carry them hidden – make Alabama a safer place?

Birmingham close call

While economists and criminologists cannot agree on what the pistol permit statistics tell about crime, many Alabama permit holders have no doubt that concealed weapons reduce crime.

Birmingham resident Ronald Martin recalled an incident in the 1980s when he was stopped at a traffic light in downtown Birmingham at night.

"Had a car in front of me and a car behind me, and two guys approached from the driver's side," he said.

With no air conditioning, Martin said, he had his window rolled down. The men reached in and tried to grab him.

"I pulled the gun," he said. "They saw the gun and ran away."

Martin said it is the only time he has ever had to draw his gun on someone, but he added that having the conceal-carry permit gives him peace of mind.

Permits nationwide

John Lott ... says research shows guns make places safer.

John Lott, president of the Pennsylvania-based Crime Prevention Research Center, said conceal-carry rates vary wildly among the states based on differences in the number of people who own guns in the first place and vast differences in the laws.

For instance, some state laws dictate that authorities "shall issue" a permit to anyone legally able to possess a firearm. Alabama joined that group last year. A handful of states do not even require permits to carry concealed guns. On the other hand, some states make it nearly impossible to obtain licenses. Hawaii, for instance, has just 183 permit holders.

Lott pointed out that Illinois, which recently became the last state to allow people to carry concealed guns, charges $150 for a license and requires 16 hours of training.

"The laws vary dramatically from state to state," he said. "That has an enormous impact."

But Lott said the national trend is clear. "The number of permits have just been exploding."

Patterns hard to detect



Alabama may be heavily armed, but a fierce debate has been raging for years over whether conceal-carry rates affect crime.

AL.com gathered the number of active pistol permits for 63 out of 67 counties. (Four didn't respond despite repeated requests). But a statistical examination of Alabama's county-by-county permit rates does not turn up any correlation with rates of serious crime. These offenses consist of homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny theft, motor vehicle theft and arson.

Higher rates of concealed carry don't seem to make one Alabama county safer than another, nor do they make a county less safe.

There are high-crime counties that also have high rates of pistol permits. Take Etowah County. It ranked sixth in Alabama in 2013, with 4,825 serious crimes per 100,000 residents. Yet Etowah is also 14th for concealed carry, with 15 percent of adults licensed to carry.

On the other hand, Dallas County has the second-highest crime rate in the state – 5,743.56 serious crimes per 100,000 residents – but ranks in the bottom 15 in pistol permits with just 11 percent of adults licensed to carry.

In fact, it is hard to find any patterns in data. How to explain that only 12.3 percent of Jefferson County adults have pistol permits, while the percentage is 18.4 in neighboring Blount? Or that rural Morgan County has a pistol permit rate of 8 percent but in rural Washington County, it is 20 percent?

The concealed carry rates don't even track with the rate by county of fatal gunshots, whether homicide, suicide or accidental.

AL.com found a very weak connection on voting patterns, country living and race. In general, counties that President Barack Obama carried have lower rates of pistol permits than counties where he bombed. More rural counties and those with a high percentage of white residents had more permits. These relationships are statistically significant but weak, each accounting for less than 10 percent of the differences between counties.

More guns, less crime

Lott, the economist who runs the Crime Prevention Research Center, said comparing one jurisdiction to another is the wrong way to measure the impact of conceal-carry permits on crime.

"The problem is that there are so many things that can vary," he said.

Lott noted that many factors influence crime rates – policing, demographics, education and economics. "The only way you can really disentangle that is to follow all of those places over time," he said.

Lott has made a career out of arguing that lower crime rates flow from increasing the availability of guns and easing the restrictions on carrying concealed. He detailed it the 1998 book "More Guns, Less Crime," which he has updated in the ensuing years.

But he also has been a lightning rod for critics who have accused him of aligning too closely with the National Rifle Association, using faulty data and ignoring information that would alter his conclusions. He offers similar criticism of his rivals.

Other researchers who have reached different conclusions have questioned some of Lott's methodologies. A 2005 report by the National Research Council of the National Academies of Sciences concluded that "with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates."

Ladd Everitt, a spokesman for the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, said that report and others indicate that Lott's work should be viewed with suspicion.

"Lott, to some extent at least, has been discredited," he said.

Everitt said lax pistol permit laws increase the number of armed people and boost the potential that disagreements can turn deadly. He rejected the argument that society has nothing to fear from law-abiding citizens – the folks who are most likely to comply with gun regulations.

"I think that's based on the mistaken assumption that the world is divided into good guys and bad guys," he said. "Almost all of us are shades of gray."

'Law enforcement can't be everywhere

Edward Ellliott, who lives in DeKalb County, said he has had a pistol permit for years – dating back to his days years ago working as a sheriff's deputy in Mobile County.

"I got in the habit there of not even answering the door without a pistol in my back pocket," he said.

Elliott said he eventually moved back to his native DeKalb. He said his wife recently got a pistol permit so she could have a gun in her car driving to and from work. But he said she stopped carrying it after accepting the responsibility of pick up her grandchild from school. She did not want to forget to leave the gun at home and have a problem with having a firearm on school property.

Elliott, 75, said he believes high conceal-carry rates make the state safer.

"I think all households should be able to protect themselves," he said. "Law enforcement can't be everywhere."

No one knows

John Donohue, a Stanford Law School professor who has been critical of Lott's pro-gun work, is cautious about making sweeping pronouncements. He said there is a correlation between more concealed guns and higher rates of aggravated assault, although he added that he cannot say for sure the more concealed weapons actually cause assaults to rise.

John Donohue ... Stanford professors says effect of guns on crime is neutral or negative.

For most offenses, he said, his research indicates that conceal-carry laws have no effect.

"It turns out to be a tougher nut to crack than one might think. ... We can't say that much, unfortunately," he said.

Donohue said that he believes that Lott mistakenly concluded that right-to-carry laws cut down on crime because that states that saw the biggest increases in the late 1980s and 1990s tended to have big cities with restrictive gun regulations. But Donohue said those places also suffered the worst impact of the crack cocaine epidemic.

One of the central premises of the deterrence argument is that criminals are reluctant to take on victims they believe are armed. He said the opposite is just as plausible. Perhaps criminals are more likely to arm themselves – or pull the trigger – when they think the victims have guns.

"Probably, the criminal will shoot you quicker in Alabama than in New York City, where they're not expecting you to have a gun," he said. "The NRA tends to think of things in terms of checkers, but criminal will think in terms of chess."

Carrying 'because I can'

In Limestone County, resident Tom Griffs said deterrence is a matter of common sense.

"I think that's been proven," he said. "Crooks who don't care about any law ... if they think people are carrying guns, they won't mess with them."

He said he has been carrying for 15 years.

"60 percent (self-protection), 40 percent because I can."

Pistol permits across America



Here is a map showing the percentage of adults in each state with conceal-carry permits. Much of the information comes form the Crime Prevention Research Center. Some numbers came directly from the states. The rate for Utah, which issues permits to non-residents, includes only the portion issued to residents. Click on any state to see how many permits it has. (NOTE: Vermont does not require or issue conceal-carry permits).