Photo by Mike Mulholland | MLive

A riveting article

By Evan Woodbery | ewoodber@mlive.com

SEATTLE -- Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander was seated at a card table in the middle of the visitors’ clubhouse at Safeco Field.

His eyes were riveted to his phone.

“Are people talking about this?” he asked no one in particular.

He turned to a group of reporters in the clubhouse: “Are people writing about this?”

Verlander was meticulously reading a long piece published last week in The Ringer that seems to lend some credence to what had once been only a conspiracy theory: The composition of the baseball is at least partially responsible for the dramatic uptick in home runs that began in 2015 and has grown even more pronounced this year.

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Different views

For Verlander, this was a Eureka moment, but it echoed what he’d long been saying.

Teammates were less impressed. Michael Fulmer, seated nearby, said he didn’t need to read the article. “I’m listening to it every day,” he said, nodding to Verlander.

Second baseman Ian Kinsler was also unconvinced: Pitchers are throwing harder, thus balls are going farther, he said. Ipso facto.

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Photo by Michael Dwyer, Associated Press

Growing, growing gone

Why have the number of home runs increased so dramatically in the last two years?

Many thought the explanation was simple: You get what you incentivize. Home run hitters are rewarded, so more players like J.D. Martinez and Yonder Alonso are changing their swings to hit more fly balls. Throughout the minor leagues, guys with pop are developed and promoted more quickly. That trickle-up effect is reaching the big leagues.

It’s the same reason big-armed power-pitchers with high K rates are flooding the big leagues: It’s simply what teams want.

But Verlander and others were never completely satisfied with that explanation. The growth in long balls has never leveled off. In fact, it’s seemingly growing each day.

Over the weekend, MLB teams hit 153 home runs in 46 games from Friday through Sunday, the most in a three-day span in baseball history, according to Elias. The previous high was 141 home runs in 2016. Before that, the most was 135 in 2000.

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The eye test

“The old eye test is the best thing to go by,” Verlander said. “Guys that have been around this game for a long time, you see balls leaving the yard that probably shouldn’t be.”

The no-doubters still exist, when the pitcher looks dejected from the moment the ball leaves the bat. But there are also homers that come off the bats looking like routine fly balls, Verlander said.

The article provided some concrete evidence for his hunches.

“It's just kind of scratching the surface,” Verlander said. “If it is true, I wish MLB would just say, 'Yeah, we wanted more offense.' But the explanation of why home runs are going out at such an extreme rate...I think people just want answers to that. Specifically pitchers. I don't think hitters mind too much.”

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Photo by Duane Burleson, Associated Press

It's in the seams

Verlander believes the seams are noticeably lower than they were a few years ago, and the article provided evidence to back him up.

"The newer balls have...lower circumferences and seam heights, which would be estimated to add an average of 7.1 feet to their distance, equivalent to the effect we would expect to stem from a 1.43 mph difference in exit speed," Ringer author Ben Lindbergh wrote.

Other studies have supported the idea that lower seams mean longer fly balls and thus more home runs.

"A 2013 study sponsored by the NCAA found that lowering the seam height from the NCAA balls' then-standard .048 inches to .031 inches (thereby reducing the drag effect of air resistance) made a ball with the speed and trajectory of a typical home run fly 20 feet farther on average," Lindbergh wrote.

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Pace of play

The conventional wisdom has always been that fans love home runs. So even if MLB were juicing baseballs, it was perhaps a benign attempt to increase interest in the game, right?

There’s only one problem with that idea.

“Fans love home runs. I like three-run home runs by our players, personally,” said Tigers manager Brad Ausmus. “But baseball also wants to curtail the length of games, and more offense does not go along with that."

Are there juiced balls? Ausmus was noncommittal.

“I don't know if the balls are juiced or not,” he said. “I know the balls are flying, or seem to be flying.”

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Photo by Mike Mulholland | MLive

On his soapbox

Verlander had an audience on Monday, and he wasn’t done.

If the commissioner really wants to speed up the game, he'll look into the epidemic of sign-stealing, Verlander said.

This isn’t the innocent sign-stealing of yore. This is high-tech stuff, involving team video departments and even code-crackers.

“We don't have somebody, but I'm sure teams have a person that can break down signals and codes and they'll have the signs before you even get out there on the mound,” Verlander said.

“It's not about gamesmanship anymore. It used to be, 'Hey, if you can get my signs, good for you.' In the past, if a guy on second (base) was able to decipher it on a few pitches, I guess that was kind of part of the game. I think it's a different level now. It's not good.”

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A screeching halt

So how does sign-stealing affect the pace of play?

“The game comes to a screeching halt when guys get on base, and specifically when guys get in scoring position on second base,” Verlander said. “The signs have to be more advanced than they ever were before.”

“Those 1-2-3 innings go pretty quick. It's when guys get on base: Pitchers picking off and stepping off, managers giving signs to the catcher, catcher giving the signs to the pitcher. All these things take place and that's where the lull is. I think there's a lot of extra space in that area we could tighten up.

“I have much more advanced signs now. I have fallback signs for my fallback signs. There's a lot of stuff happening that makes it pretty easy to get off rhythm with the catcher or maybe throw the wrong pitch or have to say, 'Hold on, let's talk about this, because we're not on the same page.'”

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Photo by Ross D. Franklin, Associated Press

What's the solution?

Verlander has two action items, one easier than the other:

MLB should come clean about any changes to the baseball (for what it's worth, MLB has long denied making alterations to the baseball to impact offense) so there can be a debate about whether those changes are healthy or whether home runs have reached a tipping point.

MLB could shave significant time off ever-lengthening games by cracking down on sign-stealing.

For the latter problem, technology could be one answer. Ausmus suggested an earpiece that allows the manager and catcher to communicate, as in the NFL. It wouldn’t solve anything, but would at least speed up one step in the multi-sign process with runners on base.

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Leading a crusade

A handful of teammates were lounging languidly on a couch watching the College World Series while Verlander held court on Monday. They watched with curiosity, but not as much enthusiasm as Verlander.

In fairness, most of them were hitters.

This is a pitchers’ crusade and Verlander is happy to preach the gospel.

“Go out and write!” he yelled with a smile as reporters filed out of the clubhouse.

Will MLB be listening?

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