It’s interesting that kos has chosen March 15 as the date on which to silence Democratic primary dissent regarding the presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton. Why is that date interesting? Because it is almost exactly the halfway point in terms of delegates awarded (50.1% of delegates will have been awarded). And at that point, we all expect Clinton to have a large lead (although how large remains to be certain).

So what does Sanders have to do to dig out of that hole? He simply has to match how well Clinton did pre-March 15. So if Clinton has won 60% of the delegates, Sanders must win 60.1% of the remaining delegates; if Clinton has won 58% of the delegates, Sanders must win 58.1% of the remaining delegates.



So what kos is actually saying is: it’s impossible for Bernie Sanders to do as well post-March 15 as Hillary Clinton has done pre-March 15. Just think about how absurd, presumptuous, and arrogant this statement is — especially from a former champion of the “50-state strategy.” Keep in mind that after March 15, there are no more Southern states — and Sanders has thus far won 56% of delegates in non-Southern states. There are whole regions of the country likely favorable to Sanders that have yet to vote (e.g. Pacific Northwest).

I put together a simple regression model (using racial factors, Democratic vote share, and Clinton-08 vote share). It predicted that if nothing were to change from Super Tuesday, Clinton would be ahead on March 16 by 60% of the delegates. This is not a particularly optimistic scenario (it assumes Sanders cannot improve at all from Super Tuesday). But even under those assumptions, it still would not be over.

After March 15, there is a string of eight Western states (largely caucuses) that look particularly strong for Sanders — my model has him winning those by 57.4%. And again, that is assuming no improvement from Super Tuesday. It is perfectly conceivable that Sanders will win these states by 62%+ — especially if he can regain some momentum by over performing in the next couple of weeks.

So what next? Sanders would have enormous momentum, coming off a string of consecutive decisive wins in the West. The media, always hoping to prolong the race for ratings, would give Sanders his own “comeback kid” narrative — who knows what might happen in that month. This would set up decisive primaries in the large remaining states, first NY, but eventually PA on down to CA. Yes, Sanders would have to win those states by large margins to make up his March 15 deficit. But even a pessimistic scenario, where he has to win 60-40 is in no way “mathematically impossible.”

kos’ edict should be seen for what it is — a clumsy attempt to shut down the primary process half-way through, in an attempt to protect the “presumptive” nominee from damage.