Malloy, Snyder, Corbett, Quinn, Brownback and LePage face tough reelection races. | AP Photos Incumbent govs fear wipeout

As many as a dozen incumbent governors are fighting for their political lives five weeks out from Election Day — a list that includes the chief executives of states as red as Kansas and as blue as Connecticut as well as several top presidential battlegrounds.

The unsettled gubernatorial landscape has drawn a fraction of the attention of the seesawing battle for the Senate. Yet the state of play is dramatic in its own right: The fate of big-name Republicans such as Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, Florida’s Rick Scott and Michigan’s Rick Snyder are all on the line, and Democrats such as Colorado’s John Hickenlooper and Illinois’ Pat Quinn are locked in tough reelection races that could go either way.


The number of vulnerable state chief executives this year is striking considering how hard it is to beat an incumbent governor: Since 1960, four out of five incumbents, on average, have won reelection. Only two incumbents were defeated in 2010, a wave year, and none lost two years ago.

Republicans currently control 29 governorships; Democrats hold 21. A difficult map makes it unlikely Republicans will control more than 31 governorships in a best-case scenario; 26 or 27 appears to be the floor. One Democratic governor, Hawaii’s Gov. Neil Abercrombie, already went down in a primary last month. (The loss actually boosted Democrats’ hopes of holding the seat.)

Based on recent polling and developments on the ground, as well as conversations with key operatives involved in the races, this is POLITICO’s look at the 10 governors most likely to go down in November, in order of likelihood that they will.

1. Pennsylvania

More than any other race on our list, this one’s all but over. Three polls this month have shown Democrat Tom Wolf up 20 or more points over Republican Gov. Tom Corbett, who has been on the defensive over everything from his handling of the Penn State/Jerry Sandusky case when he was attorney general to funding cuts for higher education, to name just a few. Though Corbett is assumed to be done, it will still be a prize for Democrats to take back the Keystone State.

2. Maine

Republican Gov. Paul LePage, a tea party favorite, won a four-way race in 2010 with 38 percent of the vote. He’s a polarizing figure whom Mainers either love or (more often) hate. Still, independent candidate Eliot Cutler threatens to play the spoiler, as he did in 2010. A Portland Press Herald poll published Sunday showed Democratic Rep. Michael Michaud ahead by 2 percentage points over LePage, with Cutler trailing far behind at 12 percent. The state’s independent senator, Angus King, recently endorsed Cutler, but it’s not clear that generated any kind of bounce. If Cutler gets more than 20 percent, LePage can win.

3. Connecticut

Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy squeaked into office in 2010 and is now locked in a tight rematch with Tom Foley, a moderate Republican and former ambassador to Ireland.

Malloy raised taxes and cut union benefits, upsetting independents and alienating labor. Now he’s struggling to consolidate the Democratic base.

A Quinnipiac poll earlier this month put Foley up 6 points. Insiders say that’s probably generous — it’s still a blue state — but Malloy is clearly on the ropes. Democrats are trying to disqualify Foley by attacking his private equity record and his call to repeal gun control laws passed after the Newtown, Connecticut, school massacre.

4. Illinois

Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, an old-school machine politician, has looked vulnerable for years. After succeeding the impeached Rod Blagojevich, he almost lost in 2010. This time, he managed to scare off potentially serious primary challengers, including former White House chief of staff Bill Daley and Attorney General Lisa Madigan.

But tax hikes and budget cuts enacted on his watch have taken a toll on Quinn’s popularity. Republicans are also attacking him over reported investigations into hiring at the state transportation department and an anti-violence program. The state still has financial problems, even after Quinn canceled contracts with public employee unions.

Republican Bruce Rauner, a first-time candidate, has his own issues: He’s been hammered for his venture capital background and forced to defend his wealth.

A recent Chicago Tribune poll showed Quinn up 11 points among registered voters, but no Democrat on the ground believes that’s the case. More likely, informed observers say, the race is within the margin of error.

5. Kansas

Republican Gov. Sam Brownback came into office promising to turn the state into a conservative laboratory. He enacted deep cut taxes but has had to slash spending when new revenue didn’t materialize. The state’s credit rating has taken a hit and large budget shortfalls remain.

An FBI investigation of fundraising and lobbying activities of some Brownback associates hasn’t helped, either.

Paul Davis, a Democratic leader in the state House, has a mid-single-digit lead in the past four polls, which also show small numbers of undecided voters. Davis recently got hit by revelations that he was in a strip club whose owner he represented as a lawyer during a 1998 meth bust, but he was never charged with any crime. Davis is still drawing sizable support from moderate Republicans despite GOP efforts to tie Davis to national Democrats. But it’s still Kansas, and he’ll probably need everything to break his way down the homestretch.

6. Michigan

With his moderate mien and “one-tough-nerd” persona, Republican Gov. Rick Snyder has gotten a lot of credit nationally for working to turn Detroit around through a managed bankruptcy and get the state back on strong financial footing.

But he has not run a particularly aggressive campaign, while former Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer has. Labor despises the governor because he signed “right to work” legislation, and millions of dollars in ads have accused him of cutting education and raising taxes. Snyder denies these charges, but he was slow to respond. In a sign of overconfidence, Snyder for months has refused to debate Schauer. (The governor recently agreed to one joint town hall meeting with Schauer, but his campaign is adamant that it is not a debate.)

Most polls show Snyder ahead, but narrowly. Schauer in some polls is winning only about three-quarters of African-Americans. Democrats hope a late visit from Barack Obama helps get them over the top in this blue state.

Recognizing that many voters don’t personally sense that their economic situation has meaningfully improved, Snyder slightly tweaked his messaging two weeks ago from calling Michigan “the comeback state” to saying that it is on “the road to recovery.” He says in one ad on TV, “You might not feel it yet, but you will soon.”

7. Florida

The epic showdown between Republican Gov. Rick Scott and his now-Democratic predecessor Charlie Crist will probably be the year’s most expensive race and its truest toss-up.

Tens of millions of dollars in attack ads have taken a significant toll on Crist’s image, but Scott’s numbers are weak, too. Trying to reverse that, the multimillionaire governor aired an ad recently showing him taking a walk on the beach with his high school-sweetheart wife, as they tell their rags-to-riches life story.

Crist, who needed to shore up a Democratic base that was leery of him, has been vocally supportive of the president and Obamacare. He’s recycling attacks against Scott in 2010 about Medicare fraud committed at hospital giant HCA when Scott was its chief executive.

A Quinnipiac poll last week showed the race essentially tied — Scott 46, Crist 44. Crist’s favorable-unfavorable numbers were 41-46, Scott’s 42-48. And neither is seen as honest or trustworthy.

8. Wisconsin

Republican Gov. Scott Walker remains vulnerable, but he seems to have opened a very narrow lead over Democratic challenger Mary Burke among the people likeliest to vote. He beat back a recall attempt in 2012 by 7 points, but Wisconsin tilts blue and the left loathes the incumbent as much as ever. Walker promised 250,000 private-sector jobs would be created during his first term; about 100,000 have materialized. With his eye on a 2016 presidential campaign, Walker has not moderated his position on a single issue. And he’s been dogged by the back-and-forth about the so-called John Doe investigation into coordination between one of his advisers and outside groups.

Walker has worked to make Burke unpalatable to the roughly 6 percent of swing voters in the race. He has hammered her over his predecessor Jim Doyle’s jobs record (she was the Democrat’s Commerce secretary), outsourcing at Trek Bicycle (where she worked as an executive) and plagiarism in her jobs plan (which she has blamed on a since-fired consultant).

This is a classic base election. Walker is focused on turning out his supporters, while Burke’s challenge is motivating African-American and young female voters to show up at the polls without Obama on the ballot. She has been a prolific fundraiser, but national GOP donors are expected to step up in the final weeks to get a conservative icon across the finish line.

9. Colorado

Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper wins the “who would you want to have a beer with?” test, but he’s been hampered by his mishandling of a series of issues.

Most damaging is the case of Nathan Dunlap, who murdered four Chuck E. Cheese employees in 1993. Hickenlooper has reversed his support for the death penalty since first running for governor, so he gave a temporary reprieve last year to the convict on death row. With the Republican candidate promising to go forward with capital punishment if he wins, Hickenlooper recently threatened to grant clemency if he becomes a lame duck, provoking a backlash from one victim’s family.

Working to Hickenlooper’s advantage is that Colorado for the first time this year will mail every voter a ballot. This is expected to boost Democratic base turnout, particularly among Hispanics and young people.

With the exception of one outlier that showed Republican Bob Beauprez up 10 points, the past seven polls have shown a race within the margin of error. But Democrats express confidence because a majority of people think the state is going in the right direction and unemployment has fallen from 9 percent to 5 percent since Hickenlooper took office.

10. Georgia

Republican Nathan Deal faces a spirited challenge from state Sen. Jason Carter, grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. Democrats have attacked Deal over his record on ethics, education and the economy.

Public polls show a tight race, with Deal in the mid-to-low 40s.

The reason Georgia is so low on the list is that a runoff will occur if no candidate gets to 50 percent in November. Democrats might be able to drive high numbers of blacks and Latinos to vote for Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn and Carter in November, but it would be difficult to get low-propensity voters to show up again for a Dec. 2 gubernatorial runoff and a Jan. 6 Senate runoff.

One plausible scenario, in other words, is that Carter gets more votes on Election Day but loses in the lower-turnout runoff.

Wild cards

Republicans are expected to hold on in these races, but they’re on our watch list:

Alaska

Republican Gov. Sean Parnell is in trouble after the Democrat and independent candidate teamed up on a unity ticket earlier this month. The Democratic state committee voted to allow the switch, and a judge just upheld the partnership. Polling the last frontier is notoriously difficult. The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling had the unity ticket up 4 points in a poll last week, prompting Parnell to release his own internal that has him up 5 points.

Idaho

Republican Gov. Butch Otter, seeking a third term, faces a challenge from Democratic self-funder A.J. Balukoff. The conservative base is divided because Otter created a state-based health care exchange under Obamacare. His stated goal was to keep the federal government out of Idaho’s business, but conservatives saw it as apostasy. Otter, a former congressman, won a four-way May primary with 51 percent. What little public polling there is shows him up double digits, so this race is a sleeper. But the governor still must find a way to overcome the fatigue that comes with holding office for three decades.