U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds the edge in a hypothetical 2018 re-election campaign against Gov. Rick Scott, according to a University of North Florida survey of 973 registered voters.

A UNF political scientist called the lead meaningful, even as Scott, twice elected as the state’s Republican governor, has started past campaigns with unenviable poll results before eking out narrow wins.

Nelson, a three-term Democrat, beats out Scott 44 percent to 38 percent, with 12 percent of voters undecided.

"Even though it’s very early in the 2018 election season, Nelson’s six-point lead is meaningful," said Michael Binder, director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory. "This race is going to get national attention and Rick Scott’s alliance with Donald Trump will likely factor into this election’s outcome next year."

Nelson’s advantage seems to stem in part from a relatively favorable job approval rating among Florida voters: 42 percent approve of his job, with 28 percent disapproving. That net positive rating of 14 points is much better than Nelson’s Republican counterpart, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, and President Donald Trump, who are both under water with voters. Fifty-one percent of registered voters disapprove of Trump’s administration so far, with 44 percent in support.

Rubio won re-election in November, but voters haven’t warmed to him much: 48 percent of voters disapprove of how he’s handling his job, while 40 percent like him.

"Trump’s soft job-approval numbers could have huge implications during the midterm races, just ask all the Democrats that lost in 2010 when Obama’s numbers were the lowest they had been to that point, and Republicans that ran in 2006, when Bush’s popularity was plummeting," Binder said.

Scott is a former health care executive — a source of past controversy for him but also the genesis of his enormous personal wealth, which he has deployed in his gubernatorial campaigns to overcome opponents who were initially more popular.

The poll, conducted Feb. 13-26, has a 3.14 percent margin of error.

One of Trump’s marquee policies faces a skeptical electorate in Florida. Fifty-one percent of voters do not support his executive order banning travel to the U.S. by citizens of seven Muslim-majority nations. Forty-six percent of voters approve of the ban.

Trump is also personally polarizing among voters. While 28 percent of voters "strongly" approve of his administration, 44 percent of voters "strongly" disapprove.

The UNF poll also asked voters about a divisive question surrounding the rights of transgender people. Sixty-two percent of registered Florida voters don’t think using the same bathroom as a transgender person would make them uneasy. And the overwhelming majority—79 percent—don’t think transgender people are a sexual threat to children and women.

Opponents of laws that expand civil-rights protections to gay and transgender people have often used the bathroom issue as a rhetorical argument. It apparently doesn’t have much traction in the Sunshine State.

"Hopefully, findings like these can change the way the debate over the rights of transgender people is presented in the media," said Curtis Phills, a UNF associate professor of psychology. "Too often, which bathroom a transgender person uses is presented as controversial when, in fact, most people aren’t concerned."