History, they say, has a way of repeating itself. Thirty-one FBS programs changed head coaches after the 2012 season and, with 10 openings by Nov. 1, it seems we could be well on our way to matching that number this year. And if we look to the past as our guide, it’s likely many of those same schools we saw change coaches in 2012-13 could appear again in 2015-16.

The hiring class of 2013 is now knee deep into their third collective seasons, nearing the 35 game mark. As such, we’ll take the temperature of each coaching tenure at this point in time with an eye toward the future.

ACC

Steve Addazio, Boston College (17-18, 8-14 ACC): The dude rode running back Andre Williams (2013) and quarterback Tyler Murphy (2014) to a pair of 7-6 seasons, ranking in the top 20 nationally in rushing both years. Both are now gone and the Eagles have plummeted to 74th. As such, BC is 3-6 despite possessing the nation’s fourth-ranked scoring defense. Like many private school coaches, Addazio will play to a system, and the results will vary depending on the depth and experience of players within that system.

Dave Doeren, N.C. State (16-17, 4-16 ACC): The progress looks good on paper – 3-9 in 2013, 8-5 a year ago and 5-3 this season with Boston College and Syracuse ahead. But here is the complete list of teams the Wolfpack has beaten under Doeren: Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Central Michigan, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida, Presbyterian, Syracuse, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Central Florida, Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion, South Alabama, and Wake Forest again. That’s a lot of cotton candy not much meat and potatoes.

Scott Shafer, Syracuse (13-20, 6-14 ACC): Shafer went 7-6 and beat Minnesota in the Texas Bowl in his first year as Doug Marrone’s replacement, and has won six times (twice in the ACC) since. This year’s Cuse team ranks 64th in scoring and 85th in scoring defense.

Big 12

Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech (17-17, 8-16 Big 12): Coaching hires often operate on a pendulum, where the new guy has to be everything the last guy wasn’t. And after Tommy Tuberville ended his awkward three-year run by bolting for Cincinnati, Kirby Hocutt went out and found the anti-Tubs: a coach who was hip, modern and, most of all, understood Texas Tech and wanted to be there. Ideally, Kingsbury would bear the torch of Mike Leach’s Air Raid legacy and mold it for the modern times. Problem is, the entire Big 12 can do what Tech does, and Tech doesn’t do what everyone else does. Turnovers have continued to haunt the Red Raiders as they attempt to climb back to the top of the Big 12.

Big Ten

Darrell Hazell, Purdue (6-26, 2-18 Big Ten): The previous numbers speak for themselves. If Purdue moves on from Hazell after this season, his hiring should serve as a case study for coaching changes in the future. After AD Morgan Burke fired Danny Hope after a 6-6 season, he chose Hazell out of Kent State, seemingly the latest product from the MAC Coaching Assembly Line. But Hazell, a long-time Jim Tressel lieutenant at Ohio State, spent just two seasons leading his own program, and the first one ended 5-7. So, essentially, Burke hired Hazell on one good season, a season in which he didn’t recruit the bulk of the roster and he happened to finish fourth nationally in turnover margin.

Pac-12

Sonny Dykes, California (11-21, 5-18 Pac-12): There was the 1-11 tear-down year, then the 5-7 rebuild year. Now, after a 5-0 start, Cal sits at 5-3 with a likely bowl berth waiting, as long as the Bears can beat Oregon State at home in a couple weeks. The defense has steadily improved – 75th in yards per play allowed after finishing in the 100’s in 2013-14, and the offense is up from 98th in 2013 to 30th in 2015. But will that continue if and when Jared Goff takes the NFL’s money this spring?

Mark Helfrich, Oregon (29-7, 18-5 Pac-12): Helfrich’s record is head-and-shoulders above his Power Five peers, and yet he’s the most scrutinized guy on this list. In taking over for Chip Kelly, Helfrich shared a Pac-12 North title in 2013 and reached the national title game in 2014. There’s been the growing pains you’d expect from a first-time head coach (not going outside the program for Nick Alliotti’s replacement is the criticism most heard of Helfrich’s decision making to date) and the dip you’d expect after a generational talent leaves the program. Helfrich has been a steadying hand at a program that values continuity and, while he has yet to lead them to that elusive national title, should keep the Ducks in Pac-12 contention in perpetuity. Is that enough for college football’s preeminent new money program?

Mike MacIntyre (10-23, 2-21 Pac-12): There’s no question the program is in better shape now than when MacIntyre arrived. None whatsoever. But there are difficulties to the Colorado job that are never going away. First, the schedule. The Buffs are 4-5, fresh off a close loss at No. 24 UCLA, and still have No. 9 Stanford, surging USC, a trip to improved Washington State and a trip to No. 13 Utah ahead. On top of that, being the Colorado coach requires you to play that schedule while convincing southern California kids to leave southern California and play for you. Can Colorado accept its lot in the Pac-12 South? Can MacIntyre?

SEC

Bret Bielema, Arkansas (14-19, 4-16 SEC): After closing last season in borderline erotic fashion, Arkansas couldn’t carry its SEC West sleeper status out of September. Bielema’s bravado is entertaining for sportswriters, and leave his fan base feeling hung out to dry when his bite doesn’t match his bark.

Butch Jones, Tennessee (16-17, 7-14 SEC): Jones has righted a lot of Derek Dooley’s wrongs, but this season – particularly early losses to Oklahoma and Florida – has written him a reputation as an aggressive and visionary brand-builder in the offseason, and something decidedly opposite of that on game day. The Vols built a lot of hype to close last season and, with a yellow-brick road in front of him to a possible 9-4 finish to this season, we’ll probably spend this off-season playing the same song on repeat. His team will no longer be young in 2016. Florida is charging hard; 2016 needs to be the time Butch cashes in some of that off-season equity and turn it into demonstrable results.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn (24-11, 12-9 SEC): Malzahn’s tenure can be split evenly into two parts, bisected by Laquon Treadwell’s broken leg. After Auburn beat then-No. 3 Ole Miss last season, Malzahn was 19-3 with an SEC championship, a national title berth and another top 10 ranking. Since then he’s 5-8 with wins over a pair of FCS programs, San Jose State, Kentucky and Louisville. So, which is it? Is he coaching’s next superstar and Nick Saban’s Antidote, or is he Gene Chizik in a vest? The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle.

Mark Stoops, Kentucky (11-21, 4-18 SEC): This story has already been written so many other times in so many other conferences. Determined to get out of the cellar, Kentucky hires what it believes to be the next best thing and plunges everything it has into being a winner. And, nearly three years later, the team is undeniably better, but its record is not.

American

Matt Rhule, Temple (15-17, 9-11 AAC): Al Golden and Steve Addazio won some games at Temple. But none had College GameDay and a primetime ABC audience on campus to see the undefeated Owls battle No. 9 Notre Dame. The defense has been great, and the offense is getting there. And best of all, Rhule seems to get Temple and enjoy being there.

Willie Taggart, South Florida (10-22, 7-13 AAC): Everything that has happened at Temple over the past three years is what I thought Taggart would bring to South Florida. What seemed like a perfect marriage of coach and program has the two in counseling two-and-a-half seasons later. The Bulls are 4-4 and close at UCF, meaning they’ll need to upset East Carolina, Temple or Cincinnati to reach Taggart’s first bowl game.

Tommy Tuberville, Cincinnati (23-11, 15-5 AAC): Tuberville has hired well and a winning program has remained a winning program. Tuberville’s tenure at Cincinnati reminds me of the Underwood marriage in House of Cards, a strategic alliance that has served both well.

Conference USA

Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech (19-16, 14-7 C-USA): Holtz won Conference USA West last season and is barreling toward another one, provided he can beat Southern Miss in the finale.

Sean Kugler, UTEP (12-21, 7-13 C-USA): Kugler is an alum that left an NFL position coaching job to lead this alma mater’s program. He appeared in a bowl game last year. Those two sentences should assuage any concerns during a 3-5 start to this season.

Brad Lambert, Charlotte (12-18, 0-5 C-USA): The upstart 49ers are still getting their sea legs in their first Conference USA season. Let’s check back in a couple years.

Todd Monken, Southern Miss (10-23, 6-15 C-USA): Did you catch that part about Southern Miss above? Yeah, after winning one game over two seasons and four games over a three-season stretch, Monken has Southern Miss at 6-3 this year and 4-1 in C-USA play. Beat Rice and Old Dominion and the Eagles are in a winner-take-all game for the C-USA West Division at Louisiana Tech on Nov. 28.

Ron Turner, Florida International (9-24, 6-15 C-USA): The Panthers are 4-5 this year after a 4-8 finish to 2014, and have Charlotte on Saturday. Which means FIU could win five games without beating an FBS team that won more than four games this year.

MAC

Rod Carey, Northern Illinois (28-9, 18-2 MAC): All Carey’s done is win two MAC West titles and one MAC championship, heading into a huge game at Toledo on Tuesday. Did you expect anything less when he was promoted to replace Doeren?

P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan (14-19, 11-9 MAC): The Class of 2013’s star pupil, Fleck has Western Michigan in contention for a MAC championship just two seasons after a 1-11 teardown year. A closing stretch of Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Toledo (the final two on the road) will provide a fantastic picture to how much substance Fleck has to match his style.

Paul Haynes, Kent State (9-22, 6-13 MAC): Playing in the MAC’s easier division, the Flashes could quite possibly finish 7-5 this season, representing a massive jump from the six total wins over Haynes’ first two seasons. But, after winning the MAC East in 2012, Kent State is still well behind Bowling Green for divisional supremacy.

Mountain West

Ron Caragher, San Jose State (13-19, 10-11 MW): Caragher left a winning situation at San Diego and walked into a tough situation in San Jose. The Spartans are 4-4 this year with BYU and Boise State waiting, mean they’ll likely need to sweep Nevada and Hawaii to finish .500.

Brian Polian, Nevada (15-18, 9-11 MW): A former assistant of George O’Leary, Charlie Weis, Jim Harbaugh and Kevin Sumlin, Polian picked Nevada as his first job, and is still working through some of the kinks.

Matt Wells, Utah State (24-12, 17-4 MW): Wells has successfully carried the torch passed to him from Gary Andersen and, some would argue, improved upon his predecessor’s work. The Aggies, once a dead end program in the middle of nowhere, are in the driver’s seat to play for the Mountain West title this season, one year after winning 10 games with four different quarterbacks.

Sun Belt

Doug Martin, New Mexico State (5-27, 2-10 Sun Belt): In January, the NCAA is set to approve new rules allowing conferences to hold a championship game with less than 12 teams. Which means the Sun Belt could vote geographic outliers Idaho and New Mexico State out of its membership if it so chooses, and commissioner Karl Benson has alluded his league may do just that. As if the record above wasn’t dire enough, there you go.

Trent Miles, Georgia State (3-28, 1-17 Sun Belt): Georgia State doesn’t have the geographic excuse New Mexico State does, and Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have removed any FCS-to-FBS excuse the Panthers could possibly use. Simply put, there’s no reason an FBS program located in downtown Atlanta should win only one in 18 conference games.

Paul Petrino, Idaho (5-26, 3-10 Sun Belt): Everything written about Martin and New Mexico State applies here.

Scott Satterfield, Appalachian State (18-14, 14-6 Sun Belt): The Mountaineers (and, to be fair, rival Georgia Southern) have shown the proper placement for cart and horse, that a winning culture must first be built before moving to FBS. Satterfield is 10-2 in Sun Belt play and four wins shy of a conference title in Appalachian State’s first season of eligibility for the crown.