The costliest impact of climate change in Europe this century is likely to be on human health – and in particular heat-related deaths – according to a new economic assessment by the EU Joint Research Centre, the European Commission’s in-house science service.

The study looks at the impact of a 3.5C rise in global average temperature from pre-industrial levels – an increase expected if no concerted international action is taken. The official target is to limit the rise to 2C by cutting greenhouse gasses.

Heat-related deaths in Europe could reach 200,000 a year with a 3.5C temperature rise, according to the study. The economic cost of premature mortality caused by global warming is estimated at €120bn a year. This exceeds the impact on coastal infrastructure (€42bn) and agriculture (€18bn).

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The total cost to Europe of unrestrained global warming is put at €200bn a year, though the JRC researchers warn that this figure considerably underestimates the dangers.

It neglects some effects – including lost biodiversity and ecosystem losses – which cannot be monetised, and it ignores the possibility of more severe changes if we pass climate “tipping points” such as Antarctic or Greenland ice melting more quickly than expected.

A striking finding is how unevenly the impacts are distributed. Southern Europe would bear 70 per cent of the burden; Scandinavia and the Baltic region, just 1 per cent.

The only net positive effect the study measured is on energy demand. Overall EU demand would fall by 13 per cent with a 3.5C temperature rise, mainly because less winter heating would be required. Only southern Europe would have to spend more because the need for additional summertime cooling would outweigh the reduced heating.

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