Yesterday we laid out a scenario for adding expansion teams in MLB. The rules for stocking expansion teams were much friendlier in the 1990s than they were in the 1960s. In fact, you could argue if they expand again, they would cut back from the generous terms given Arizona and Tampa Bay back in 1997. But for our purposes, we’re going to copy those rules for this piece.

Existing teams can protect 15 guys in their entire organization, not just those on the 40-man roster. However, players chosen in the past two drafts plus those who signed three years ago at 18 or younger are protected. So they run no risk of losing Dominic Smith or Michael Conforto. Also, guys signed at 18 or younger in 2012 include Gavin Cecchini, Marcos Molina and Amed Rosario.

Additionally the expansion draft lasted three rounds, although the third round was only half as long as the first two. So, some MLB teams lost two players and others lost three. The Mets actually made out well in this regard as they only lost two players – Cory Lidle and Carlos Mendoza. They undoubtedly would lose someone more valuable this time around. Once a player was taken, the team could pull back three additional players.

So, who would the Mets protect in the 2014 Expansion Draft?

There are 12 no-brainers. They are: Travis d’Arnaud, Jacob deGrom, Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, Dilson Herrera, Juan Lagares, Steven Matz, Rafael Montero, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.

The assumption is that the expansion clubs would not be very interested in picking up guys on the wrong side of 30 with long-term commitments. Curtis Granderson is likely a great guy but if someone wants to assume the payments on him, it’s unlikely the Mets would try to stop them. That’s why he and others didn’t make the no-brainer list.

Nine of the top 10 prospects from Baseball Prospectus’ 2015 list for the Mets are either protected are not eligible and the final one is Jhoan Urena, who played last year in Brooklyn and is probably too far away to merit serious consideration for clubs who likely will be focusing on players ready to contribute in a year to 18 months, if not sooner.

Here are the nine guys under consideration for the final three spots on the 15-man protected list:

Jeurys Familia – a 25-year-old potential closer would be a desirable commodity for an expansion club.

Wilmer Flores – Many would consider him a no-brainer but it’s not clear he can handle SS in the majors and he loses a ton of value to the Mets if he has to play 2B or 3B.

Dillon Gee – Most teams figure to protect young cost-controlled pitching and it’s doubtful there would be a dozen major-league ready starters available better than Gee in the draft.

Jenrry Mejia – See the Familia comment. Has the advantage of already experiencing success as a closer.

Daniel Murphy – An impending free agent, Murphy’s contract status probably keeps him from being selected.

Jon Niese – If left unprotected he would likely be the first pick from the Mets. Would Terry Collins view that as a bad thing? How worried are they really about his shoulder?

Bobby Parnell – Could easily see a team gambling on him in the final round.

Matt Reynolds – It’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Mets expose both he and Flores and if one gets picked, using the other with Ruben Tejada to cover SS in the majors in 2015. Of course, they could still get someone else to come in and play the position, too.

David Wright – Some would consider it a crime not to protect Wright. But would an expansion team really risk the $107 million left on his contract?

After much hemming and hawing, the 15-man protected list is filled out with Familia, Mejia and Niese.

The expectation is that either Flores or Gee would be lost on the first round. Ultimately, the deciding factor for me was that the Mets have had so much trouble with their bullpen recently that it made more sense to protect their 8th and 9th inning guys rather than a back end rotation starter or a player who might not be able to hack it at short.

It would certainly be defensible to swap Flores for Niese with the thinking that the Mets would be able to handle the loss of a SP better. Niese gets the nod here because with Flores, there’s a chance that an expansion team goes after Gee and you can pull Flores back. In the 1997 expansion draft, the first three picks were pitchers and 10 pitchers were selected before the first nominal shortstop was taken (Andy Sheets).

Of course you could counter argue that the expansion club would not be forced to carry Flores at short and he would be more desirable as a 2B or 3B to a brand new team. Like mentioned earlier – a bunch of hemming and hawing.

The three pull backs would be whichever one of Flores/Gee remains, Murphy and Parnell. Feel free to substitute Reynolds for Murphy here, especially if Flores goes in the first round. Without knowing who went in the first round, it would be foolish to even speculate who the Mets would lose in the second round. It seems likely a team would be interested in an outfielder in his prime like Matt den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Or perhaps a minor league pitcher nearly ready for the majors like Matthew Bowman or Cory Mazzoni. It’s even possible a bullpen arm like Vic Black or Josh Edgin would be in demand.

Regardless, the depth of the Mets’ system would take a hit in this expansion draft. But for me it would be a small price to pay for getting rid of interleague play.

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