By Kim Young-jinThe fate of the joint Gaeseong Industrial Park in North Korea, the last thread of inter-Korean reconciliation, has been called into greater question amid soaring tension after the North’s deadly shelling of Yeonpyeong Island last week.In a confirmation hearing at the National Assembly, Friday, defense minister-nominee Kim Kwan-jin said he would propose closing the complex to President Lee Myung-bak as it could hamper the military’s ability to respond in the event of a North Korean attack.“The complex, where many South Koreans are working, could be an obstacle in mapping out military measures against North Korea,” Kim said.The remarks came as Seoul maintains a careful approach to Gaeseong, which houses 120 southern companies employing 44,000 North Korean workers.While a travel ban imposed in the wake of the Nov. 23 attack remains, some 410 South Koreans are currently allowed to go about their business at the enclave.A spokesperson of the Unification Ministry, which heads the government’s inter-Korean efforts, said earlier in the day it is monitoring the situation but not currently considering additional measures.In response to the attack that killed four South Koreans, the Lee Myung-bak administration halted aid to the North, bolstered firepower on border islands and pledged to make Pyongyang pay a “dear price” for further aggression.But analysts said earlier that for the time being, neither government appeared likely to take proactive measures on the industrial park that benefits both sides in different ways.“While taking a firm stance against the military attack, we also need to maintain some interaction between North and South Korea,” Park Young-ho, an analyst at the government-affiliated Korea Institute for National Unification, said. “Gaeseong is one way for the South to maintain contact and observe the North’s stance on inter-Korean economic relations.”Production at the complex began in 2004 after the project emerged out of the landmark inter-Korean summit in 2000 between the late President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.The scope of the project has been hampered over the years as it has been seen as a bargaining chip in disputes between the two.Activities have been particularly strained since May, when Seoul blamed Pyongyang for sinking its warship Cheonan earlier in the year, killing 46. It placed a trade ban as part of sanctions for the March sinking, which the North denies instigating.Seoul is also concerned over the interests of its businesses working in the zone, which some estimates say would take an immediate combined hit of some $1.2 billion if Gaeseong closes.Those companies are now pleading with the government to safeguard their operations as the travel ban allows only a limited amount of raw materials into the complex, hampering their production.Analysts say the North, strapped by international sanctions for its nuclear program, desperately needs the complex, which accounts for more than half of the $1.6 billion trade relationship between the countries. Some of the factories there are among the biggest employers in the communist country.Safety concernThe prospect of further aggression, which some Seoul officials anticipate, raises the question of the safety of South Koreans at the complex, which lies some 10 kilometers from the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone bisecting the two Koreas.“If North Korea carries out another provocation against the South, retaliation seems inevitable,” Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University, said. “At that point they may have to bring those working there back to the South temporarily.”Under the travel ban, Southerners are free to leave the complex but would be prohibited from returning. Supplies for the employees, but not for production, are allowed to pass into Gaeseong.In August, officials revealed that South Korea and the United States have held simulation drills on multiple occasions to prepare for possible hostage situations in the industrial area.Other reports cited defense officials as saying if a hostage situation were to occur, Seoul would rely on negotiations first but consider military action if conditions worsened.Kyungnam University expert Lim Eul-chul said the detention of South Koreans at Gaeseong appears unlikely.“Over the years of working together, the sides have built up mutual trust. Even if the situation worsens, they are more likely to be sent back to the South than detained,” he said, adding that such a move deters much-need foreign investment in the North.In April last year, a South Korean engineer was detained on charges of denouncing the North Korean regime, but his release was secured during a meeting between Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun and leader Kim.The two sides are technically at war as the 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.