Updated: Two changes have been added to this article:

The TTC has confirmed that they have now entered into a lease for temporary warehouse space.

The “subway service resiliency” item was supposed to involve providing more service on Line 1 YUS and Line 2 BD. In fact the service frequency has not changed since January 2015 when this funding was announced, and no trains (i.e. no extra operating costs) were added to the schedules.

Back in January 2015, newly-minted Mayor John Tory summoned Toronto’s media to an outdoor press conference at a windswept schoolyard. The purpose? To announce his mea cupla, that he was wrong in his campaign against added transit funding.

“It was not until the transition period after the election that I was fully able to comprehend and see put in front of me, all the facts as to the scope and extent of transit cutbacks imposed by the previous administration.”

The Mayor would fix this with an infusion of $135 million, restoration of services, and a new fare policy – free rides for children. This “investment” in better transit service comes up time and again when Tory is challenged about his budget policies.

But where did the $135 million actually go? Did all of that money actually find its way to service riders can enjoy? The TTC’s news bulletin outlines the announcement and further details are in the TTC 2015 Operating Budget report. [See pp 6-8 and 14-15]

With budget approval coming in mid-winter and many of the changes planned for mid to late 2015, the initial cost of any improvement is less than the full-year expense. This allows a big promise to come in “year one” without the need to actually spend big money until “year two”. However, that year two money never showed up in the TTC’s budgeted subsidy.

TTC Costs for 2015 Improvements Item 2015 Part 2016 Full Year Cost Year Cost ($ m) ($ m) Ten minute network 3.7 11.3 All door boarding 3.4 5.6 Reduce off-peak wait times/crowding 3.2 9.9 Subway service reliability 2.8 2.8 All day, every day service 1.7 5.5 Subway service resiliency 1.0 1.5 Express bus network .9 2.7 Route and station management reviews .9 2.0 Expanded blue night network .8 2.4 Station supervisors .8 2.3 Purchase of 50 new buses 13.9 12.0 Leased garage setup 3.3 Warehouse and interim garage leases 2.5 30.2 Subtotal 38.9 88.2 Free rides for children 5.4 7.1 Total 44.3 95.3

In 2015, the TTC’s budgeted subsidy rose to fund the in-year cost of the new services except for the free children’s rides which were funded within the overall fare changes. There was no added City subsidy for this policy, despite the Mayor’s taking credit for it.

However, the TTC’s budgeted subsidy in 2016 only increased to $494.6 million, far short of the amount needed to pay the full-year cost of the 2015 changes. On top of this, more improvements were approved for 2016, although the lion’s share of their cost would come in 2017.

TTC Costs for 2016 Improvements Item 2016 Part 2017 Full Year Cost Year Cost ($ m) ($ m) Bus service reliability 2.0 5.8 Subway service reliability 0.9 2.6 Early morning subway service 1.1 3.0 New/enhanced bus service 1.7 4.9 Total 5.7 16.3

For 2017, Mayor Tory proposes a 2.6% reduction in the subsidy. If this is implemented, the 2017 subsidy would drop to $481.7m, only $41.6m more than the level in the last year of the Ford administration. Relative to that year, the City’s “investment” in transit improvements is much less than the announcement might claim.

TTC Operating Subsidy ($ m) Budget Change From 2014 2014 (Last Ford year) 440.1 2015 (First Tory year) 478.9 38.8 2016 494.6 54.5 2017 (proposed 2.6% cut) 481.7 41.6 Cumulative total 134.9

The TTC faces costs not just for new and improved service, but for inflationary increases and these affect the entire expense budget of $1.7 billion, or $17m for every 1%.

Although the TTC received its subsidy in 2015 including money for the listed improvements, some non-service items did not move forward. There has been no progress on acquiring a leased bus storage facility, and this is responsible for severe overcrowding at existing garages. No mention of this scheme was made during the bus fleet plan presentation at the TTC Budget Committee meeting on September 6. Similarly, the proposed consolidation of warehouse space has not taken place, and it is unclear when any spending related to it will happen.

Updated September 8 at 9:47 am: The TTC’s Brad Ross advises:

“… we have leased a warehouse in the Unilever property for the next 7 years to tide us over while we determine the long term warehouse strategy for the TTC.”

This means that most of the $36m ($5.8m 2015, $30.2m 2016) in proposed “investments” did not actually occur.

The 50 bus purchase that had been timed for 2015-16 was actually completed in 2015, and all of its cost was paid out in that year. This absorbed the shortfall in spending on the proposed leases in 2015, but there is still that $36m unspent from the claimed investments.

Updated September 8 at 10:21 am:

The “subway service resiliency” was supposed to improve subway service:

Subway Service Resiliency: $1.0 million. Two additional peak period subway trains will be added on each of Lines 1 (Yonge-University-Spadina) and 2 (Bloor-Danforth) to improve service reliability.

In fact there has been no change in the scheduled service on Line 2 Bloor-Danforth. On Yonge-University, some “gap trains” (spare trains used for service adjustments) have been converted to scheduled trains, but the total number of trains in service and the scheduled frequency are the same as in early 2015. The recent extension of AM peak short turn service north to Glencairn was accomplished with 3 new trains and 1 reassigned gap train.

Line 1 Yonge-University-Spadina Service Trains Gap Trains Jan/15 Aug/16 Sep/16 Jan/15 Aug/16 Sep/16 AM Peak Trains 46 48 53 4 2 1 AM Peak Frequency 2'21" 2'21" 2'21" PM Peak Trains 49 51 51 2 0 0 PM Peak Frequency 2'31" 2'31" 2'31"

Line 2 Bloor-Danforth Service Trains Jan/15 Sep/16 AM Peak Trains 45 45 AM Peak Frequency 2'21" 2'21" PM Peak Trains 42 42 PM Peak Frequency 2'31" 2'31"

John Tory talks a good, if somewhat repetitive, story about how he rescued the TTC from the Ford-era cuts, but in fact the amount of new money his administration has put into transit operations is quite small. Improvements, such as they are, have been funded at least as much by cutbacks in overall TTC budgets and by fare hikes.

Much of the $135 million exists only as a line in a press release.