The U.S. Navy’s top officer has warned that Russian submarines are prowling the Atlantic Ocean at rates not seen since the end of the Cold War and that China is beginning to increase its naval activity closer to American shores. Though there has certainly been an uptick in these activities, the available evidence points to the nature of those operations, rather than the exact number of ships as being the real source of concern. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson explained his worries in an interview that Voice of America, or VOA, published on Aug. 6, 2018. It’s not the first time he has raised these concerns and he had directed the Navy to reactivate the 2nd Fleet to oversee naval operations in the northwest Atlantic in May 2018. That command will hold a formal establishment ceremony at Naval Station Norfolk on Aug. 24, 2018.

“We're talking about more [Russian submarine activity] than we've seen in 25 years,” Richardson told VOA. “Even five years ago, we wouldn't have seen anything like this,” he added regarding Chinese naval activity in the region. There is no debate that Russia is making a very public push to reinvigorate its naval operations and conduct more routine patrols in the Atlantic and elsewhere. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that the goal of this effort is, at least in part, is to enhance his country’s nuclear deterrent capabilities.

Russian Ministry of Defense Russia's Borei-class ballistic missile submarine Alexander Nevsky.

The Russians also would not have to increase their submarine activity very much for it to look impressive compared to what it was 25 years ago based on the Navy’s own reporting, according to the Federation of American Scientists. In 1993, Russia’s Navy sent ballistic missile submarines on around 20 patrols and had cruise missile and attack boats make around 15 sorties. Even in 1989, Soviet submarine activity was half of what it was between 1983 and 1984 and was steadily trending downward. As of 2008, the Russian submarine force as a whole had been averaging approximately 20 sorties a year for a decade. If that number had doubled by 2018 it would indeed be a major increase “since the end of the cold war,” but still less than the Soviet Navy’s typical operating levels in the 1980s.

“We watch all submarine activity,” Secretary of Defense James Mattis told reporters on Aug. 7, 2018, when asked about the reports. “I’m not concerned about it.” But it’s the exact nature of present Russian submarine operations that actually seems to have the U.S. military most concerned. In particular, the Kremlin has reportedly been deploying boats near undersea cables in the North Atlantic at an unprecedented rate. “We are now seeing Russian underwater activity in the vicinity of undersea cables that I don’t believe we have ever seen,” U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Andrew Lennon, who serves as NATO’s top submarine officer, revealed to The Washington Post in December 2017. “Russia is clearly taking an interest in NATO and NATO nations’ undersea infrastructure.” Russia has invested heavily in special mission submarines that experts widely believe can cut and tap these capable, which could allow them access to sensitive data or give them a means to cut off the flow of information in a crisis. In 2016, at an event the National Defense Industry Association hosted, Robin Brunner, then-Director of Science and Technology for U.S. Northern Command, used the Russian Navy’s nuclear-powered midget submarine Losharik as an example of worrisome maritime “dark targets” that were especially difficult to detect and monitor.

NORTHCOM A slide from a briefing that then-Director of Science and Technology for U.S. Northern Command Robin Brunner gave in 2016 that shows an artist's conception of Losharik as an example of a maritime "dark target."