Despite an onslaught of outside spending against Conor Lamb, the Pennsylvania Democrat’s small-donor base may well have propelled him to a momentous special election victory Tuesday in a race that remains too close to be called.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone by a mere 627 votes after overcoming a major disparity in outside spending to seemingly clinch a district candidate Donald Trump carried by 19 points.

Even as Saccone’s campaign seeks hope in provisional and absentee ballots yet to be counted, the result comes after conservative outside groups outspent liberal groups $10.6 million to $1.8 million on the race.

Lacking the same financial backing that outside spending groups gave Doug Jones in his Alabama special election triumph last year, Lamb relied heavily on grassroots fundraising and small-donor support to mount his attack against Saccone.

Lamb’s campaign raised $3.9 million — 50.6 percent of which came from donations of $200 or less. By contrast, small donations accounted for only 12.7 percent of the just over $916,000 Saccone received in individual contributions.

The two major party candidates spent a combined $3.6 million in the special election. Another $12.4 million was spent by outside groups on their behalf. The table below shows how that spending translated into a cost-per-vote ratio for each candidate.

Total Cost Per Vote in the Pennsylvania Special Election



*Total spending as of Feb. 21, 2018, and therefore not complete.

**Outside money includes both spending in support of the candidate and against his major party opponent.

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During the campaign, Lamb swore off corporate PAC money and had criticized Saccone for leaning heavily on “dark money” groups. 45Committee, a 501(c)(4) that does not have to disclose its donors, spent over $563,000 supporting Saccone.

Saccone’s top outside spender was the National Republican Congressional Committee, which invested over $3.5 million in the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spent just $312,500 defending Lamb against his opponent.

Nonetheless, Lamb finds himself on the brink of winning a seat in Congress — never mind that it could be a largely symbolic victory, given that redistricting in Pennsylvania means it’s likely the eventual winner would not run again for the 18th District.

But a Lamb win would certainly raise red flags for Republicans attempting to retain their congressional majority in November.



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