Here's John Tavares' dilemma: In the eight seasons and counting since the Islanders drafted him first overall, he's served dutifully as the franchise's face and captain, quickly realizing the preordained NHL stardom cast upon him at 17 . It's the Islanders who haven't always held up their end of the bargain. And while Tavares insists that doesn't change his desire to remain in Brooklyn (or Long Island, or Belmont, or wherever the team winds up next ), he so yearns for a Stanley Cup.

The rest of the NHL has been watching.

MORE: How a John Tavares deal could work in Toronto

Tavares, owner of the league's friendliest contract, signed in 2011, is due a major raise. That it didn't arrive July 1, 2017, was mildly disconcerting. He and the front office preached about getting "something done as soon as possible" at season's end after the Islanders missed the playoffs for the fifth time in Tavares' career. And speculation about the 2018 free agent class topped by a 27-year-old Tavares only intensifies as weeks pass without a long-term deal.

Increasingly, it sounds like negotiations are headed down the same path as counterpart Steven Stamkos. The Lightning captain, of course, spent the 2015-16 season dealing with rumors he would bolt for his hometown Maple Leafs and a boatload of cash. After a high-profile courting process, he elected to stay put in Tampa two days before free agency.

Stamkos said he felt it was his best shot at winning a Cup for the first time. But does Tavares feel the same way?

The Islanders and GM Garth Snow know Tavares is key to any championship shot, but haven't done well coloring around him.

MORE: John Tavares, James van Riemsdyk's best fits in 2018 free agency

This summer, Snow acquired Jordan Eberle to play on Tavares' wing and paid a king's ransom of draft picks to ensure the expansion Golden Knights wouldn't poach top talent from the lineup that might impede the team's ability to win now. He got those picks back and then some in exchange for defensive stalwart Travis Hamonic, but they'll be for naught if not flipped for another difference maker before the season, like the Avalanche's Matt Duchene.

All of this is part of the Isles' pitch to convince Tavares to sign a long-term extension in New York. And that in doing so, he's better suited to win — sooner and later — than he would be in Toronto, Montreal, Detroit, Tampa Bay, et al. But that's where things get murky for everyone involved.

The bar was raised for star players when Connor McDavid signed his $100 million ($12.5M AAV) extension with the Oilers.

McDavid led the NHL in scoring and won his first MVP at the tender age of 20, so he's an exceptional case. But he left money on the table. What does McDavid's monster contract mean for a player of Tavares' ilk who hits the open market in his prime? The Islanders' offer has been rumored to exceed $10 million per year, but Tavares could conceivably approach $12 million in a bidding war. Is he worth the money in the salary cap era? If so, who's doing the bidding?

MORE: John Carlson overlooked, undervalued among 2018 free agents

Toronto's situation is vastly different since its pursuit of Stamkos, altered by the instant stardom of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner.

It may no longer make financial sense for the Leafs to throw an expensive homecoming for Tavares, an Ontario native, with the kids due big-money extensions in the next two years and another $18.75 million committed to 37-year-old Patrick Marleau. Tavares has done his best to squash those rumors anyhow.

The 2018 unrestricted free agent class has already lost some of its luster with the likes of Carey Price (eight years, $84 million), Cam Fowler (eight years, $52 million), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (eight years, $56 million) and Martin Jones (six years, $35.5 million) inking big extensions. That's the top two goalies and top two defensemen.

Below is a primer for every projected UFA next summer, ranked and sorted into tiers behind the undisputed No. 1.

The class likely will look different come July 2018. How much different will be up to Tavares.

Money makers



3. John Carlson, D, Capitals ... Washington will do its best to keep Carlson. But this top-pair, right-shot defenseman projects to hit a slim market at 28. You do the math.





6. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Maple Leafs ... If Kane and Atkinson re-sign, van Riesmdyk stands to become the most sought-after scoring winger next summer.

7. Ilya Kovalchuk, LW, KHL ... Never mind he'll be 35. Kovalchuk's proven history of scoring goals in the NHL entices. It'll draw a bidding war.



9. James Neal, LW, Golden Knights … Neal figures to lead Vegas in scoring when he's flipped at the trade deadline, then reap the rewards in free agency.

10. Rick Nash, LW/RW, Rangers ... No longer a dominant force but Nash, 34 next summer, is still plenty capable. A strong 2017-18 will earn him one last big payment.

11. Paul Stastny, C, Blues … Health is always an issue, but Stastny, 31, is reliable when on the ice. He hasn’t played 75 games in a season since 2011-12.











Wild cards

17. Joe Thornton, C, Sharks … The future Hall of Famer may well run out of gas before July 1, 2018. Maybe not. He'll turn 39 the next day.



19. Mike Green, D, Red Wings ... Green's best days are behind him, but he'll top 35 points with ease for a team that can shelter his defensive deficiencies.



22. Ian Cole, D, Penguins ... If Cole replicates his 2016-17 production, he'll be due a big payday from the Penguins or another team.

23. Tyler Bozak, C, Maple Leafs ... Bozak is nothing flashy but could command a high price tag with another 50-point season.

24. Jack Johnson, D, Blue Jackets ... Johnson, 30, enters 2017-18 a motivated man. This contract, his last shot at a big payday, follows a very public bankruptcy saga.



26. David Perron, LW, Golden Knights ... Premium top-six minutes await in Vegas. Perron has the talent to take advantage in a contract year.

27. Toby Enstrom, D, Jets ... Enstrom is likely an odd man out on Winnipeg's crowded blue line. At 33, he'll still have something to give another team.



29. Patrick Maroon, LW, Oilers ... Maroon will have Connor McDavid to thank for whatever massive overpayment comes his way in 2018.

30. Michael Grabner, RW, Rangers ... Grabner recaptured his long-lost scoring touch in 2016-17. If he tops 25 goals again, someone will pay him.

Best of the rest

31. Andrew Cogliano, C, Ducks

32. Lars Eller, C/LW, Capitals

33. Leo Komarov, C, Maple Leafs

34. Jonathan Bernier, G, Avalanche

35. Jannik Hansen, LW, Sharks

36. Dan Hamhuis, D, Stars

37. Jaroslav Halak, G, Islanders

38. Kris Versteeg, LW, Flames​

39. Tomas Plekanec, C, Canadiens

40. Chris Kunitz, LW, Lightning

41. Valtteri Filppula, C/LW, Flyers

42. Eddie Lack, G, Flames

43. Luca Sbisa, D, Golden Knights

44. Thomas Hickey, D, Islanders

45. Andrej Sustr, D, Lightning

46. Chris Stewart, RW, Wild

47. John Moore, D, Devils

48. Antoine Vermette, C/LW, Ducks

49. Erik Condra, RW, Lightning

50. ​Lee Stempniak, RW, Hurricanes

51. Brayden McNabb, D, Golden Knights

52. Matt Read, RW, Flyers

53. Chad Johnson, G, Sabres

​54. Luke Schenn, D, Coyotes

55. ​Jussi Jokinen, LW/RW, Oilers

56. Ondrej Pavelec, G, Rangers

57. Michael Hutchinson, G, Jets

58. Alexei Emelin, D, Predators

59. Carter Hutton, G, Blues

60. Matt Calvert, LW, Blue Jackets

61. J.T. Brown, RW, Lightning

62. Erik Gudbranson, D, Canucks

63. Cam Ward, G, Hurricanes

64. Mark Letestu, C/RW, Oilers

65. Brandon Manning, D, Flyers

66. Joe Colborne, C/LW, Avalanche

67. Shawn Matthias, C/LW, Jets

68. Kari Lehtonen, G, Stars

69. Eric Fehr, C/RW, Maple Leafs

70. David Desharnais, C, Rangers

71. Magnus Paajarvi, LW, Blues

72. Joel Ward, RW, Sharks

73. Jason Garrison, D, Golden Knights

74. Antoine Roussel, LW, Stars

75. Nicolas Deslauriers, LW, Sabres