Here’s something to keep in mind as we head into the weekend: If Canada in fact slipped back into a recession, it’s very likely over by now.

There’s still an if as to whether we did. And if so, it was probably mild, unless you live in Alberta. And by all accounts, it would be over and done with, with better times ahead.

Don’t take that to mean that things are great. Unemployment remains elevated, close to 7 per cent, and Canada will be lucky to eke out economic growth of, say, about 1.5 per cent this year.

As The Globe and Mail’s David Parkinson reports, the R-word popped up again this week when Statistics Canada reported that the economy contracted in April by 0.1 per cent, a worse showing than what was expected.

That means Canada has now seen four straight months of contraction. And when all is said and done, the second quarter as a whole may have been negative.

After the first quarter’s contraction of 0.6 per cent, that would fit the definition of a recession.

But remember that the second quarter ended on Tuesday, and we’re now into a second half that the Bank of Canada and private economists believe will mark a rebound.

Something to keep in mind as you stroll around the corner this weekend for a double-dip ice cream.

Derek Holt, vice-president of Scotia Economics, for one, said this week that the “worst effects” of past oil shocks have been “short-lived,” along the lines of what Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz has said was a front-loaded hit.

“As Governor Poloz notes, the benefits of lower oil prices and an improving global economy eventually take over,” Mr. Holt said.

“Patience is required. Fleeting doesn’t mean something that can be measured with the precision of the exact month, like why we didn’t see a rebound in April. The second of the year is likely to get better than the first half.”

Many other economists agree, and they’re not even sure at this point whether Canada indeed suffered a second-quarter contraction.

“We will need to see some big gains in May and June for the economy to just eke out a marginally positive reading in the second quarter of the year,” Diana Petramala of Toronto-Dominion Bank said in a report.

“This raises the risk of a second consecutive small quarterly contraction in Canadian economic activity.”

Like others, Ms. Petramala, too, sees a “strong” case for a rebound in the months ahead.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a notably harsh view of Canada’s economy, believing it contracted again in the second quarter at a pace of 0.6 per cent.

Still, its forecasters also see a pick-up in the current and final quarter, of 1.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively.

“The impact of weaker oil prices has been swift and painful,” said North America economist Emanuella Enenajor, rates strategist Ruslan Bikbov and foreign exchange strategist Ian Gordon.