The Men's Bracket Tournament View Women's Bracket »

Nate Silver is the author of The Times' FiveThirtyEight blog, which is devoted to the analysis of statistics and data in politics and other areas. He also is a basketball fan, and will be providing his insights throughout the men's tournament. The advancement probabilities displayed below reflect the chance that a team will advance to any given stage of the tournament, given games that have been played so far as well as all possible permutations of matchups that could be played for the rest of the tournament.

The principal factor in the forecasts is a composite of computer ratings. In addition, there are adjustments for injuries, the geographic location of the games, preseason ratings, and the quality of a team's performance during the tournament so far. The probabilities will be updated once per day or more often. See more about Mr. Silver's methodology at FiveThirtyEight.