The Vancouver Canucks signed two horrible contracts today, let’s let that part out of the way since there’s no sugar coating it.

With multi-year extensions for both Derek Dorsett and Luca Sbisa, they club elected to pay two bottom-of-the-lineup players middle-of-the-lineup money, and locked both up for the mid-term future too.

But both deals are bad in different ways. While Luca Sbisa may belong on the fringes of an NHL roster, Derek Dorsett has been a valuable 4th-line contributor, one that brings a plethora of off-ice benefits to the table as well. He’s tough, he scores, he plays with his heart on his sleeve, and he’s been an effective two-way guy in his career – you win with those types of players on your roster.

But Dorsett’s extension is still poor asset management on behalf of Jim Benning. Find out why after the jump.

When Derek Dorsett was acquired from the New York Rangers, we deemed it a “modest win” for the Vancouver Canucks. A third-round pick is a lot to give up for a player that makes a comparable two-way impact as several mid-July free agents that are available every year, but Dorsett has traditionally been the premium model of this type of grinding, bottom-of-the lineup player.

Add in the fact that Dorsett is, by all accounts, a terrific off-ice presence that’s helped young players like Bo Horvat and Ronalds Kenins transition effectively into the NHL, and you can see why he was a gamble worth making.

Quantifying Dorsett’s Impact

This season, Dorsett has set career highs in points and assists and he’s scoring at a rate similar to many 3rd liners. This is less a material improvement on Dorsett’s part however, and more due to an increased opportunity in Vancouver and a more offensively oriented role.

It’s also worth noting that Dorsett’s on-ice shooting percentage is as high as it’s ever been over an extended period of time, so it’s not wise to bet on an above average 3rd-line level of offense from Dorsett over the long haul. Dorsett has traditionally been above average offensively for a fourth liner though, and we can expect him to remain above average offensively into the near future.

On a per-minute basis though, Dorsett’s 2012-2013 campaign was actually more productive than this one (however, it was cut short due to an injury), and he took on an extreme defensive role in both New York and Columbus before he got to Vancouver:

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But hockey is a two-way game and defense matters as much as offense does, if not more. You’ve all heard the phrase “defence wins championships,” and this has been proven true to a degree in hockey, as shot suppression has generally been a slightly better indicator of long-term team level success than shot generation has. And on the defensive side of the puck, Dorsett has struggled immensely this season.

His on-ice scoring chances against are way up, shots against are way up, shot attempts against are way up, and opposing teams are also scoring goals against Dorsett at one of the highest rates of his career. This is, in turn, hurting Dorsett’s ability to play in the offensive zone as his on-ice scoring chances, shots, and shot attempt numbers have cratered too.

Dorsett makes everybody worse. @Verviticus Derek dorsett has got to be close to this pic.twitter.com/9wlFlaIBxK — Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 4, 2015

Being mindful that he is playing this season in a far less defense-oriented role, Dorsett is posting by far and away the worst defensive year of his NHL career by Steve Burtch’s dCorsi metric, and has a negative defensive impact relative to what’s been expected of a player in his role for just the second time in his seven year NHL career. This isn’t promising, especially when we consider that Dorsett’s at the age now where attrition really takes it’s toll on fourth liners.

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Bringing in offense into the equation, the difference between what we can reasonably expect Dorsett’s total Corsi to be and what it actually is this season is the 7th worst in the entire NHL, and 11th worst per 60 minutes of ice time of all players who have appeared in more than 20 games with one team.

To put it all together, Dorsett is a good offensive fourth liner that has traditionally been a very good defensive one too, but has not had that same success this season. The Canucks have been better off without Dorsett than they have been with him, but this is rather unusual given Dorsett’s track record.

He should be a positive contributor on both sides of the puck, and should be a guy that you want playing on your fourth line.

Why This Costs More than Just Cap Space

$2.65 million per season overvalues Dorsett severely.

Bottom-6 guys generally don’t have a long shelf life, and years and years of heart-on-his sleeve hockey will take it’s toll on Dorsett eventually. It usually takes it’s toll right around this point in a fourth-liner’s career too, and signs of age related decline are there for Dorsett already.

In terms of on-ice output, Vancouver has better in-organization options already available to them that should be playing ahead of Dorsett on the depth chart as it is – Ronalds Kenins, for example – and his $2.65 million/year contract is massive relative to the role Dorsett projects to fill.

When you give a guy that kind of money, you incur a massive opportunity cost that’ll prevent you from upgrading on your roster elsewhere. Adding extensions for Dorsett, Sbisa, and Tanev in recent weeks likely means that either ace penalty killer Brad Richardson or super-efficient bottom-6 goal scorer Shawn Matthias will walk in free agency, and Vancouver will not be likely to afford to replace either on the open market.

Besides, there are sure to be 4th line options available on the open market this summer that should have a similar direct impact to what Dorsett should have brought to the table this year, including Erik Condra, Marcel Goc, Dan Paille, James Sheppard, and Daniel Winnik to name just a few.

The problem with the Dorsett contract isn’t that Dorsett isn’t a player worth having – he’s the type of guy you want on your fourth line if you’re going to go places in the playoffs.

The problem is that once you start paying these guys north of $1.5-2 million per season, giving them more than two years, and signing them into their 30’s, you’re handicapping your ability to improve the areas of your roster that need the most attention. It’s an efficiency contest and you need to squeeze the most player value in under the salary cap if you want to compete for the Stanley Cup. Paying Derek Dorsett $2.65 million per season is not even close to accomplishing that.

You need cost savings on the Dorsetts of the world. You can’t be paying them a super-premium amount.

Conclusion

Maybe this is Jim Benning’s master plan. Maybe he’s not fooled by the perceived improvement over last season, and maybe he realizes that the core is getting older and there’s no one in the organization who looks ready to step up and replace Henrik Sedin or Dan Hamhuis. Maybe he realizes that the hill is still coming, and last year wasn’t close to the bottom of the trough.

In that case he’ll need warm bodies to fill a roster still, and those warm bodies might as well be of extremely strong character to help your future core players adjust to being professionals.

And Derek Dorsett is a great character guy, and he will help your futures adjust to the NHL and become consummate professional hockey players. Maybe Jim Benning sees Dorsett as a shepherd, helping the Canucks through the inevitable tough transition era from the Sedins on to the next ones.

We can only hope, because $10.6 million for Derek Dorsett won’t help the Canucks win a Stanley Cup.





