At the 2015 trade deadline, the Toronto Maple Leafs dealt away productive, penalty-killing winger Daniel Winnik:

Very excited 2 be joining the @penguins! Looking forward 2 having the opportunity 2 win a cup. It was an honour to play for the @MapleLeafs — daniel winnik (@Danwinnik34) February 25, 2015

By dealing away Winnik, the Leafs demonstrated that their newly-formed analytics department is functioning well. The return for the cheaply-signed Winnik on an expiring contract was Zach Sill (a needed roster filler), a fourth-round pick in 2015 and a second-round pick in 2016.

Signed for $1.3 million for the season, the Leafs essentially flexed their financial muscle, paying Winnik for his time in Toronto, retaining some of his salary upon his trade, and acquiring two draft picks for their troubles.

By securing multiple picks across the next couple of drafts, the Leafs are showing at least an indirect belief in the power of the Bill Belichick drafting strategy. Many picks is better than fewer picks, even if the picks aren’t premium first-round selections.

If Bill Belichick throws shoes at you before your wedding, that means he might draft you: http://t.co/95dyZIF8yc pic.twitter.com/aNbRZfOSVm — SB Nation (@SBNation) March 4, 2015

It will be years before the Leafs’ draft picks prove their worth. But the plan to secure rental-ready skaters in free agency to deal at next year’s deadline will help the Leafs and other re-building teams like the Buffalo Sabres to acquire the draft picks they need to fuel their rebuilding efforts.

Which 2015 unrestricted free agents could perform as well, and pay off as well, as Winnik? Let’s take a look.

Emmanuel Perry’s Similarity Scores

Emmanuel Perry (@MannyElk) has created a Similarity Scores calculator that is hosted at War On Ice. Using this data, players with a similar slate of enhanced stats can be easily identified.

In Perry’s own words:

“Stylistic similarities between players are not directly taken into account, but can be implicit in the players’ statistics. Contextual factors such as strength of team/teammates and other usage indicators can be included in the similarity calculation, but are given zero weight in the default calculation. In addition, the role played by luck is ignored.

The Statistical Similarity Calculator uses this calculation to return a list of the closest comparables to a given player-season, given some weights assigned to a set of statistical measures.”

So, which pending free agent skaters have produced seasons similar to Winnik’s 2014-15 season?

Name Team in 2014-15 Similar Season Last Year’s Contract Matt Cullen Nashville Predators 2013-14 $3.5 million Dustin Penner Washington Capitals 2013-14 $1.6 million Derek Roy Edmonton Oilers 2012-13 $1 million Marcel Goc St. Louis Blues 2011-12 $1.2 million Curtis Glencross Washington Capitals 2009-10 $2.6 million

*please note – the list of comparable was identified using Perry’s default setting here. The only exception is that I expanded the total number of comparables to 40.

There are a few problems with hunting down the next Daniel Winnik. First, the list of Winnik comparables among UFAs isn’t a very long one. In fact, no 2015 UFA had a “similar” season and you have to go back as far as 2009-10 to get the similar campaign from Capitals’ forward Curtis Glencross.

However, rebuilding squads like the Leafs and the Sabres (and the Oilers, Hurricanes, Coyotes, etc…) do have some relatively cheap free agent options available to plug into a lineup until trade deadline day. Let’s take a look at each of the five players who have posted Winnik-like enhanced stats seasons during the past few years.

Matt Cullen – In 2014-15, Cullen has posted a 53.3 percent Corsi For percentage, which is 1.7 percent above the Preds’ average. Yet, it was last season’s work that qualified Cullen as “Winnik-like.” His possession work remains strong in the later stages of his career.

Matt Cullen’s sons joined him at the blue line last night in honor of his 1,200 #NHL game: http://t.co/xi7oO9MxaA pic.twitter.com/kReQxMjI6h — Nashville Predators (@PredsNHL) March 6, 2015

However, at 38 years-old, Cullen isn’t a sure bet to play another season. If he does, it’s not clear that Cullen would risk signing with a non-contender if he does continue to play. Cullen is a free agent coming off of a $3.5 million contract (which is pricey) but is unlikely to seek similar cash this off-season.

Dustin Penner – Penner was often accused of being disinterested when he was in the NHL. After a year out of the league, Penner doesn’t seem likely to come back. Move along. Nothing to see here.

#Oilers game-winner courtesy @Roy9ner! https://t.co/7J20P4XZbD — Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) March 26, 2015

Derek Roy – Playing for the lowly Edmonton Oilers, Roy’s possession rate (47.9 percent Corsi For and -1.9 relative to his team) isn’t inspiring. He’s also a couple of seasons removed from posting his Winnik-like year.

But, with 31 points in 68 games played, and only 31-years-old, Roy represents enough possession and offense that Perry’s similarity score generator ranks him among Winnik comparables. After playing for $1 million this season, Roy is the cheapest Winnik-like free agent available.

#Blues Tweets: ICYMI: Marcel Goc's first goal as a Blue was a big one, too. WATCH… http://t.co/q29FMH7KFh http://t.co/xuYszLuouK — St. Louis Blues (@bluesbeacon) March 25, 2015

Marcel Goc – Goc has posted a 49.4 percent Corsi For percentage this season, which is less than one percent below the Blues’ average.

However, Goc’s role as a neutral zone stopper makes him a valuable forward for the Blues. He’s started a team-leading 40.4 percent of his shifts in the neutral zone (and a measly 27.1 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone). At 31-years-old, and with only 9 points this season, Goc is likely to demand only a cheap contract, making him an attractive option among the Winnik-like free agents.

Curtis Glencross – Let’s get the ugliness out of the way – Glencross earns $2.6 million per season and posted his season similar to Winnik five years ago. It’s possible that Glencross is too pricey and too far removed from his Winnik-like season to be a truly comparable player.

It’s also tricky to evaluate Glencross’ possession work this season after being dealt to the Capitals at the deadline. Glencross owns a 46.2 percent Corsi For mark, which is 0.1 percent higher than the Capitals average.

But with 35 points in 67 games, and a nifty 12.4 percent shooting percentage, Glencross offers some of the best offensive potential among the Winnik-like free agents. If the Capitals don’t look to re-sign the 32-year-old checker, he could be a useful free agent rental for a rebuilding team.

GOAL REPLAY: Daniel Winnik gets things started with the #Pens first goal of the game → http://t.co/C0xs312GHG — Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) March 28, 2015

Perry’s similar scores player finder unearths a number of free agent forwards who are similar to Daniel Winnik. These UFAs could be handy for rebuilding teams looking to fill out their rosters with players that will have trade value at next season’s deadline.

Cullen, Penner, Roy, Goc or Glencross can probably be signed at or below the average NHL salary ($2.58 million per year) next season based on their earnings this year. If any of the five ink a deal with a rebuilding squad, that team stands to benefit at next year’s trade deadline by netting picks and roster-fillers in return for their Winnik-like rental player.

In the end, the best Winnik-like free agent may be Daniel Winnik himself. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end too.

What do you think of the practice of signing free agents to one-year deals in the hope of trading the rental player at the deadline? Is it a wise practice for a rebuilding team? Or does the rebuilding team risk getting stuck with an unwanted older skater?