Congress seems poised to ignore the basic aspects of governing and focus on 2012. | AP Photos On the Hill, the worst is yet to come

Forget about landmark legislation or even a budget deal. And all those votes on the floor? Most will be meant to influence the November elections.

Welcome to the second session of the 112th Congress, when a divided and unpopular group seems poised to ignore the basic aspects of governing and turn the House and Senate chambers into full-time campaign stumps.


The bar is so low that “even a hard-charging fast-digging mole” couldn’t find it, as Sen. Joe Manchin puts it.

“The gridlock we’ve seen is because of the election cycle, so just think of the election year,” the West Virginia Democrat said grimly. “If you think this is bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet.”

After all of last year’s drama — the near government shutdowns, the debt default crisis, the failed supercommittee — few expect substantive legislation to land on President Barack Obama’s desk in the middle of a polarizing election campaign.

“I’m not optimistic,” said Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Senate Democrats are already talking about scheduling votes to put the eventual GOP nominee in an awkward spot, forcing him to choose between the unpopular congressional wing of his party and more moderate, independent voters. Mitt Romney, for instance, could be forced to take positions on immigration measures backed by Hispanic voters but opposed by his conservative base, as well as populist-tinged economic proposals spending federal dollars to create jobs for first responders and teachers, Democrats say.

House Republicans, in the meantime, want to push proposals to expand energy production and other issues that resonate with wide swaths of the public but divide Obama and his base. They say there is no shortage of anti-regulatory proposals aimed at portraying the Obama administration as harmful to the business community.

“The more you get into the presidential campaigns, the more the Senate becomes an echo chamber for the presidential race, it seems,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). “So that is a negative factor.”

There is a brief window to pass legislation this year — in order to clean up the mess left over from last year. And the major deal-cutting may wait until the elections are over and for the end-of-the-year lame-duck session, since both the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts to defense and other programs will take place in January 2013 if Congress doesn’t act.

But Congress faces much more immediate deadlines.

Before the end of this month, Congress will have to deal with an extension of Federal Aviation Administration programs in order to avoid a partial shutdown of that agency. Before the end of February, Congress expects to pass an extension of the payroll tax break to avoid seeing taxes go up for 160 million workers, as well as seeing unemployment benefits lapse and reimbursement rates increase for physicians who service Medicare patients. And by the end of March, it’ll be time to extend funding for transportation programs or risk seeing the highway trust fund go bankrupt.

Beyond the other housekeeping items — a symbolic vote to raise the debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion and extend expiring business and individual tax breaks — both sides will quickly shift to election-year footing in an attempt to bolster their chances at the polls in November.

“I think it’s going to be very difficult because if this year is any indication, next year’s going to be worse,” Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said in an interview at the end of December.

In 2011, Democrats in the Senate refused to unveil a budget and they don’t plan to this year either, opening them up to charges of abdicating their responsibilities. But Democrats would rather be tagged with shirking their duties than pushing forward a controversial plan like the House Republicans appear likely to do.

Last year, the House GOP unveiled a budget by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that fundamentally transformed the Medicare program for future beneficiaries, a plan that opened them to Democratic accusations that they were seeking to end the entitlement program. And this year, senior House officials said, they may do the same.

“Sometimes in election years there are openings, and I think you gotta keep working hard and try to accomplish whatever you can and not really assume that just because it’s a political year nothing will get done,” said an optimistic Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.), who chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee. He said “fundamental” tax reform will be a focus of his panel.

It’ll be harder for Republicans to enact deeper spending cuts this year. They agreed to overall spending levels of $1.047 trillion in 2013 in last year’s debt ceiling agreement. And Congress’s ability to push through a giant spending bill in December puts off any threat of a government shutdown until the new fiscal year begins in October, meaning there will be far less leverage for Republicans to enact an anti-spending agenda.

House Republicans know they have problems in 2012 since they want to secure some more accomplishments before the November elections.

Rank-and-file lawmakers are frustrated with the progress the party has made on jobs, and leadership aides spent a good deal of time over the winter recess attempting to craft a message and strategy to show — even if only politically — that they are trying to make progress with Democrats controlling the White House and the Senate. One of the first measures the House GOP will take up — the American Energy & Infrastructure Jobs Act — calls for greater oil drilling and using the revenues to fund repairs to roads and bridges.

House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) spent his winter recess calling 10 members each day to try to head off any land mines over the payroll tax holiday, an issue that tripped up their party at the end of last year.

In private conversations over the break, the party has been desperately trying to avoid traps — such as passing new measures that Obama or Democrats could use against them in the campaign.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a member of GOP leadership, said the window for substantive legislation will be open for the first few months of the year and then “everybody will get their running shoes on.”

“I think once we have a nominee, that race sort of starts eclipsing a little bit of what’s happening around here,” he said. “Maybe that creates a better atmosphere for getting things done around here.”

Asked if he really believed that, Thune conceded: “No, I don’t. I’m just channeling something here — wishful thinking, I suppose.”