When Western political leaders meet with their counterparts in Central and Eastern Europe, all they want to discuss is the crisis of democracy and the erosion of the rule of law. However, priority for the latter is the demographic crisis and depopulation of their countries.

Andrej Plenković, the prime minister of Croatia, who currently holds the rotating EU presidency, described the depopulation as an “existential problem for Europe” during his recent meeting with new European Council President Charles Michel.

Can there be a connection between the twin crises – democracy and demography? Rather than view the increasing illiberalism in Central and Eastern Europe as the inevitable return of atavistic nationalism and authoritarianism, it may rather be understood as something new: an attempt to preserve the power of shrinking ethnocultural majorities in the face of a declining population and a growing is migration. The UN estimates that since the 1990s, Eastern European nations have lost about 6% of their population, or about 18 million.

In 1939, almost one-third of Polish residents were not ethnic Poles (there were significant German, Jewish, Ukrainian, and other minorities). Today, ethnic Poles are over 95% of Polish citizens. Over the course of this century, this trend began to reverse. What political historian Joseph Rothschild calls a “return to diversity” is becoming increasingly apparent.

In order to manage this “diversification”, Central and Eastern European societies will have to forget what many still consider to be the greatest lesson of the 20th century – that ethnic and cultural diversity is less of an advantage and more of a threat to security.

In a democracy, numbers matter. As they change, so often does political power change. Central and Eastern Europe witnessed a version of this phenomenon. Millions of people have moved, mostly to the west, and the liberal political forces have seen their influence decline significantly as a result of a large number of their constituents being among those who chose to leave.

Contrary to popular belief, the new illiberalism is not based on a political promise to maintain tightly closed borders. For example, in 2017, Poland, whose government is fiercely opposed to Brussels’ refugee policy, issued more visas to foreign migrant workers than any other EU Member State.

Rather, liberalism promises sovereign control over who can participate in politics – it reserves the right to distinguish between citizens and non-citizens within states. Foreigners are free to come and work, but they will never be allowed to have any significant say in the political process. This is an option, though not as dramatic in size and scope, of the way the Gulf states treat migrant workers. Everyone is welcome to work but not to enjoy the benefits of citizenship.

Obviously, maintaining the power of the ethnic majority in diversifying societies has its cost. Creating a two-tier society and the resentment it inevitably provokes is the most obvious consequence. The emergence of a politically deprived youth is another, less obvious result. Young people are currently a relatively small group in Central and Eastern Europe due to their low birth rates and high emigration rates.

This creates the risk that older generations, overrepresented in the political system, who rightly consider themselves to be the biggest victims of the post-communist transition (with their low pensions and ruined careers), will block investment in the future. This may cause further displacement of young people. Governments, therefore, face a dilemma: how to persuade senior citizens to sacrifice themselves for the future of their country, even if they suspect that their children or grandchildren will live elsewhere.

The exclusion of immigrants from the political process within a few decades can lead to a situation where most working people are not eligible to vote, while most voters are retired. For such a system to work, either democracy will lose its importance or the regime will become less democratic.

In 1953, after the violent suppression of anti-communist protests in East Berlin, Bertolt Brecht wrote a poem called “The Decision”, in which he sarcastically asked if it would be “easier” for governors to “dissolve the people and choose another” Because of today’s illiberal political leaders, Europe is facing its Brecht moment.