Kornacki Delegate Math: Trump at 1,199; Could Use Unbound PA Delegates To Put Over 1,237

MSNBC's Steve Kornacki returns to the delegate map on the day of the New York primary.





STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC: We're going with conservative estimates, [After New York, Trump] would be sitting with 841 [delegates], Delaware looks good, Rhode Island and Connecticut and let's say he gets 100 out of those, sitting at 941 the end of the month [of April].



Indiana the start of May, let's say he loses Indiana, only gets three districts, that would put him at 950. West Virginia looks really good for him. Nebraska, winner take all, doesn't look good. Decent nights in Washington and Oregon, you put those together, he could be sitting at 1016 conservatively by the end of the month.



Takes you to the last day [June 7]. What looks good for him the last day, winner take all New Jersey. New Mexico is proportional. And California -- three for every congressional district. If you got 120 out of California, a rough estimate, 12 out of New Mexico and 51 out of New Jersey, he'd be sitting at 1199, you say he's short. We have the open convention. Here's the thing.



17 [pledged delegates] in Pennsylvania, that real number is 71. There are 54 unbound delegates in Pennsylvania. Right now, the majority of candidates running to be unbound delegates in Pennsylvania are saying publicly on the record they will go with whatever candidate wins their state. Donald Trump is leading Pennsylvania by more than 20 points right now. He could easily get the lion's share of those and that could put him over 1237, a win in Indiana could put him over 1237. A better showing in the northeast could get hi closer, there are many pathways.



JOE SCARBOROUGH: Obviously tomorrow, he could do something in an interview that would blunt any momentum. Let's say we keep going at the rate we're going right now, do you find, crunching the numbers, he rolls through the northeast, let's say the polls stay pretty consistent where they are right now, do you think it is more likely than not he gets to 1237?



KORNACKI: Yes. Much more likely. I'll go one step further. If he wins indiana, I think it's very likely at that point he gets there. Here's the other thing. If Kasich finishes second tonight and second ahead of Cruz next week, I think it gives Kasich enough life he can play spoiler in Indiana and deprive Cruz of the one-on-one shot he wants in that state. Kasich could get enough life to take enough votes from Cruz in Indiana and that's a 40 delegate swing.

Kornacki said he believes Trump could win the required 1,237 delegates before the Republican convention. If Trump wins Indiana it is very likely he wraps it up, he said.