This is part 2 of my trade deadline preview for the Celtics. Check out Part 1 for a general overview and team goals. This post will focus on the players currently on the roster.

Nothing in life is free, so before we delve into potential trade targets for the Celtics we should look at the current roster and how each player’s value to the Celtics compares to their value to the rest of the league. I’m going to break this down into a few categories of players and highlight one in each.

Untouchables: None

The Supreme Court has ruled that every trade deadline preview has to take a stand on if a team has any “untouchables.” Marcus Smart is untradeable from my heart.

Core Pieces: Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk

No one is untouchable, but these five players’ combination of production and team control means you’re unlikely to shift any without getting back a potential All Star. Smart has the most upside but Crowder probably has the best trade value because of position scarcity.

Jae’s name has come up in a lot of trade speculation because he would likely be part of the asking price for a top-20 player like Blake Griffin. Crowder received some buzz as an All-Star honorable mention and at 25 years old he may still have room to grow; it’s also possible that his value is at it’s peak right now. A responsible front office has to wonder if he’s really the 35% shooter from three we’ve seen this season or the low-30% shooter he was on his first 500 NBA attempts. His team friendly five year deal means trading him for a player with only a year left on their deal would be a big risk, but for any established star player in their prime and sitting on a deal longer than that you would have to make the move.

Isaiah has more value to the Celtics than I think he would to almost any other team. Players in that situation aren’t often traded. Kelly will be a player that many teams ask about, but with three seasons of evidence that he makes Boston’s offense hum he’s in the same spot as Isaiah. I think he’s significantly more likely to be moved than IT4, but if he is it means the Celtics made a major splash.

Off the top I need to admit my personal bias against Avery’s game. I just don’t particularly like it (could there possibly be a worse week to admit this after Friday’s win?) and think that what he excels at is easy to see but not all that valuable.

I know the front office and coaching staff value him highly, but I’ve always come down closer to where the advanced stats are in thinking that he’s an about league average player. A player who gives average per minute production but in heavy minutes at a below market rate is still a good thing. There are a lot of players who can give you what Avery does for 15 minutes a night but not for 30, and teams waste a lot of money trying to figure out who is able to make that transition.

The interesting thing to me is that his profile across the league appears to be greater than his production may warrant. That means that if a strong sellers’ market develops, and the Celtics aren’t able to get the right price on a “get better” trade, it would be smart to keep your ears open for offers. If a team is willing to do something really stupid, and that happens relatively frequently, the Celtics should at least consider moving someone like AB. The team goals this season are not so high that they should close off those avenues without even considering them; even if it would be very disappointing from a fan perspective to see the deadline play out like that.

Decision Time: Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller

Both Jared and Tyler are restricted free agents in waiting. The team has had success retaining their RFAs on team friendly deals but, as the roster crunch builds and frontcourt minutes are shortened in favor of small ball, it’s difficult to see both players being on the team next season. Tyler’s resurgence over the past week could be “showcasing” for the deadline but it may also have re-opened Brad Stevens’s eyes to value of having a dynamic rim-runner on the court with the second unit. After spending most of the season on the bench, Tyler would be within his rights to look for greener pastures this offseason and he seems like one of the most likely Celtics to be moved before the deadline. His emergence in the rotation in the past week always bears watching though.

It’s rare that any team fighting for home court advantage would have doubts about their 23-year-old starting center but Sully is destined to always be a divisive player. Half the fan base (at least) swears that he’s an unreliable, lazy, overweight and not worth spending any time on. The other half points out that he’s now in his second straight season in the top-20 for real plus-minus among centers and that starting centers don’t grow on trees. (They grow on vines in the Baltic States, in case you’re wondering.)

If the front office falls more in line with that first group, and isn’t willing to match his free agent price, then it’s time to move him on and recoup what value you can. If an eight-figure salary is in the budget than Sully keeps his spot in the starting rotation and you happily roll on. Personally I’ve always loved Jared’s combination of rebounding, passing, and effective (but unattractive) defense. His shooting has cratered this season but his rebounding has surged and he’s shown an ability to fit in with multiple units. My hesitancy with trading Jared would be that he seems to be unloved across the league and that could mean offers are harder to come by than they should be. If that’s the case they could retain him on the comparative cheap and lock in yet another long-term below market deal.

Valuable Options: Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Evan Turner

I was tempted to make ET untouchable just for his quotes. Realistically, unless the team needs a $3.5M contract to make a much larger deal work, it’s hard to imagine any other franchise valuing Evan as much as we currently do. He’s similar to Isaiah in that respect. ET and IT, together forever.

Much of the talk around Amir Johsnon and Jonas Jerebko centers on their 2016-17 non-guaranteed deals. I think that’s unfair to both, who have played important roles on this season’s team and are well worth what they’re scheduled to be paid next year. The fact that the team can only carry 15 players means that at least one probably won’t be back but the structure of their deals means that you can postpone those decisions until after the deadline without losing all their value.

I may go against the grain on these two but I think The Hick from Swedish Lick is more likely to be on the roster next season than Amir is. For all Amir has helped this team, an argument can be made that Tyler Zeller is a better long-term fit and that Johnson’s minutes could be reallocated among other players without taking too much of a hit. Reliable, defensive minded, roll-men can be found more easily than 6’10” forwards who can shoot 40% from three and switch on defense.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team has taken off as Jonas’s minutes have increased and been taken only at power forward. Of all the Celtics’ forwards he’s the easiest to fit into a lineup combination because he has a rare ability to both stretch the floor and hit the boards. This season there are less than 20 players taking at least 30% of their shots from three, making those threes at an above average clip, and grabbing over 10% of available rebounds. His drop in usage rate and increase in turnovers isn’t great, and has led to career low advanced stats, but as a power forward he’s a great role player. A lot of those bad things came as a small forward where he’s an NBA scrub.

The challenge at this deadline is that he’s also the Celtics’ one mid-sized contract not associated to one of the players at the top of this post. If one of your priorities is to acquire a backup small forward (and that need is why Jonas played there in the first place) then you might find yourself needing a $5M contract to make the numbers work. Part of why it’s so hard to find a good deal for the Celtics in that market is that Jerebko is more valuable than the player you’re likely to get, but to use anyone else’s deal means having to package multiple players. If Jonas is still on this team in March I suspect he’ll also be on it in 2017, but I don’t know if he’ll make March.

Second Draft: James Young, Terry Rozier, R.J. Hunter, Jordan Mickey

Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux of the Dunc’d On Podcast often talk about how draft picks are more valuable than the players taken with them if those players don’t make an immediate impact. For all that Celtics fans salivate over Jordan Mickey’s D-League highlights, to the rest of the league he’s a second round pick with six total NBA minutes. Look at the rest of the D-League All Stars and realize that you’d laugh if the fans of a team owning the rights to any of those players told you that they were something special.

Teams are willing to take risks on young players like this but you have to put aside your personal attachment to properly evaluate them. Terry Rozier was probably over-drafted and in his limited minutes this season has looked completely lost. R.J. is a shooter making less than 25% of this threes. Teams will see value in their upside but all of these players are likely worth around a very low 1st round pick.

The least loved of the four is the one who always interests me the most. It’s rare for a wing player to break into the league as young as James did. Of the few who have, ones who get big minutes early become stars and ones who don’t still become role players. With the league downsizing there simply aren’t enough competent wings so even ones who only rise to that level will be making $10M/year in the future.

Young’s 538.com CARMELO comps are telling. Xavier Henry, CJ Miles, Martell Webster, and J.R. Smith were all terrible in their first few years before starting to put it together in their early 20’s. Henry’s career was ended by injury as he was establishing himself in as similar class to the rest of that group. For pure positional value, I would give up Young and Mickey last from this group.

Salary Fodder: David Lee

From the moment Danny Ainge flipped Gerald Wallace for Lee I said that it was more about money than talent. Gerald had a hefty $11M contract but for a team trying to keep all avenues open in acquiring a star player, more is better. Lee’s $15.5M contract allows you to take back more salary in return and star players are generally getting paid rather well. Possibly more important than straight 1-for-1 contract matching, Lee’s additional contract weight could allow the Celtics to eat another team’s bad contract along with a star, making it financially beneficial for a trade partner.

Trading primarily for a player’s contract doesn’t mean you shouldn’t also see if that player still has any of the skills that got them the deal in the first place. Coach Stevens gave Lee enough run to show what he could still do, and the answer was “put up some empty stats.” Lee become the focus of many fans’ ire, and was given way too much attention by the national media, but the experiment probably cost the team about one win in the aggregate.

If Lee’s deal ends up being the salary makeweight in a major deadline move it will seem worth the investment. If not, there’s a possibility that he could be shifted to a team under the cap but my guess is that a few cheapskate teams hovering over the luxury tax will sell off future assets to duck the tax and eat up that available space. The Celtics don’t have a history of making pure cost saving moves so it may be hard to find a new home for Lee if it isn’t part of a larger trade. If David Lee is still a Celtic on February 19 the team will offer him a buyout and both sides will move on.

Check out Part 3 of the Trade Deadline Primer where I look for targets and propose trade structures that will infuriate the fans of other teams