14 November 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals are on track to win a substantially large majority if an election were held today.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 7961 Canadians between October 30th and November 7th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.09% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“If things stay the way they are now, Justin Trudeau could secure a majority without winning a seat west of Ontario”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberals are narrowly ahead in British Columbia, but they are over 40% in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 39.3% support (-0.1% since our last poll in July), while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 34.6% (-2.3%). The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 10.8% support (-1%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 6.8% (-0.2%). The Bloc Quebecois have 3.4% (+1%) overall, but have 14.4% in Quebec. The People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier have 3.8%.

“The Conservative vote is inefficient so Scheer will end up piling big wins in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba”, continued Maggi. “Beyond this, the Liberals have over a twelve point among women and voters under 35, as well as a six-point lead among voters older than 65.”

“It will be tough for Andrew Scheer to win when Justin Trudeau has a big lead among the largest age cohort, and the age bracket most likely to vote.”

The poll also asked whether Canadians were optimistic or pessimistic about their personal finances and the Canadian economy in general. The survey found that 59% of respondents were optimistic about the Canadian economy, with 20.3% being very optimistic.

There were similar findings regarding Canadians’ sentiment about personal finances. 62.6% were optimistic about their personal finances for the rest of the year, with nearly 25% being very optimistic.

“These numbers point to why Trudeau is doing well,” concluded Maggi. “If Canadians generally feel good about the economy and their personal finances, then they likely will not be willing to change the government.”

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