Sanders the frontrunner after big Nevada win Presented by the United States Postal Service

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Quick Fix

— Bernie Sanders won big in Nevada, solidifying himself as the frontrunner in the still unsettled race. How will the rest of the field react?

— Tom Steyer is making his return to the debate stage, qualifying for Tuesday’s debate in South Carolina, where he may be drawing votes away from a desperate Joe Biden. Some good news for Biden in South Carolina: House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn is planning to endorse the former vice president later this week.

— Two moderate Democratic House incumbents spent more than $1 million over the first six weeks of 2020 to beat back liberal primary challengers. Meanwhile, another Federal Election Commission filing last week showed Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly leading a quartet of Democratic Senate hopefuls who raised more than $1 million online in January via ActBlue.

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Days until the South Carolina primary: 5

Days until Super Tuesday: 8

Days until the March 10 primaries: 15

Days until the 2020 election: 253

TopLine

Bernie Sanders had a runaway victory in Nevada, and is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary. | Getty Images

THE THIRD STATE — Sanders didn’t just win Nevada — he won big. The Vermont senator ran away with it in the Silver State, leaving Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren (and everyone else) in the dust. As of Sunday evening, with about 88 percent of precincts (and most of Clark County, where the majority of voters live) in, Sanders was at 47 percent in the county delegate count, to 21 percent for Biden, 14 percent for Buttigieg and 10 percent for Warren.

Sanders rode a fairly large coalition to victory in Nevada, according to Campaign Pro chief Steve Shepard’s dive into the entrance polls, locking up the support of young, Latino and liberal voters to propel himself to a blowout victory.

His win established Sanders as the frontrunner in this Democratic primary race, but he’s not an uncatchable one — yet. The first three states — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — award a whopping 2.5 percent of the total pledged delegates to the national convention. But time is rapidly running out, with Super Tuesday just eight days away. After Super Tuesday, about 40 percent of delegates will have been awarded, with big prizes like Texas and California on the board. “Keep in mind that California has been voting for two weeks. Texas has been voting for five days, and the ballots dropped in Colorado weeks ago,” Chuck Rocha, Sanders’ senior adviser and architect of his Latino outreach strategy, told POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein. “We’ve already been banking all of those votes and all of those Latinos, getting their ballots, calling them, talking to them. That’s going to be a real key to our success.”

How will the remaining candidates respond to Sanders’ frontrunner status, especially on the debate stage Tuesday night? Will it be a repeat of what happened last week, where Mike Bloomberg was everyone’s favorite punching bag, or will candidates turn their fire on Sanders in an attempt to slow his momentum?

Buttigieg, in particular, seems the one most up to directly attacking Sanders. In his post-Nevada speech, Buttigieg tried to claim the anti-Sanders mantle, POLITICO’s Elena Schneider wrote, slamming the frontrunner for leading what he called an “inflexible ideological revolution.” His campaign also released a new television ad in South Carolina criticizing Sanders on health care. Warren, too, has become more critical of Sanders, NBC News’ Sahil Kapur wrote, particularly over Sanders’ unwillingness to push for the end of the Senate filibuster. Biden, meanwhile, is trying to paint his second place finish as a bounce-back moment for him, as he goes all in on South Carolina, POLITICO’s Marc Caputo reported. POLITICO’s Natasha Korecki and David Siders also have more on establishment Democrats’ freakout.

It took Nevada the better part of a day and a half to report the results, though the slow count was papered over by Sanders’ landslide victory. But there is still an Iowa-style controversy potentially looming for Nevada Democrats. Buttigieg’s campaign sent a letter to the state party alleging mistakes in the results, I wrote, with the state party largely rebuffing Buttigieg’s proposed remidies. (Buttigieg wasn’t challenging Sanders’ big win; He was instead focused on the fight for second, for which Biden leads him by a healthy margin.) But, because the winner in this race was apparent from the get-go (and not a razor-thin margin like Iowa) and called fairly early in the night, all things considered, the level of panic seems significantly lower.

— And speaking of Iowa: A recount is incoming. The state Democratic Party there announced Friday that it accepted the entirety of Sanders’ recount request and a portion of Buttigieg’s request, I reported. The recount is expected to start on Tuesday.

Presidential Big Board

Tom Steyer will return to the debate stage Tuesday night, as he potentially siphons off votes from Joe Biden in South Carolina. | Getty Images

THE DEBATE STAGE — Steyer is making his return to the debate stage. After missing out on last week’s Nevada debate, he’ll be on stage in Columbia, S.C., on Tuesday after hitting 18 percent in a CBS News/YouGov South Carolina poll released on Sunday, I wrote (and more on that poll below). Everyone who participated in last week’s debate is expected to be on stage tomorrow night as well: Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Amy Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — A big endorsement is coming: Clyburn, the dean of South Carolina Democrats, is expected to back Biden this week, Natasha, Heather Caygle, Marc and Laura reported. Earlier on Sunday, Clyburn told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos that he’d make his endorsement on Wednesday, after this week’s debate.

— Klobuchar picked up the endorsement of two more newspaper editorial boards in March-voting states: The Seattle Times and San Francisco Chronicle.

ON THE RECORD — Bloomberg said he and his company would release three women from NDAs related to alleged comments he personally made, POLITICO’s Chris Cadelago reported. More from Chris: “It’s unclear who the employees of Bloomberg LP are or what remarks by Bloomberg they complained to his company about. His statement Friday covers remarks he personally made and not the actions of other Bloomberg LP employees that could have resulted in more NDAs.”

STAY OUT — Sanders strongly condemned apparent Russian attempts to meddle in the election, after The Washington Post’s Shane Harris, Ellen Nakashima, Michael Scherer and Sean Sullivan reported that the Vermont senator, Trump and some Hill lawmakers were briefed that Russia was trying to boost Sanders. “I don’t care, frankly, who [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants to be president,” Sanders said in a statement. “My message to Putin is clear: Stay out of American elections, and as president I will make sure that you do.” However, the now-Democratic frontrunner was dismissive of the underlying reporting, blaming the timing on the story on the Nevada caucuses.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Sanders released a criminal justice-focused television ad in South Carolina. “Bernie Sanders is fighting for justice and always has,” the ad’s narrator says. “He’ll fix our broken justice system so it works for everyone, not just the wealthy.”

WEB WARS — American Bridge is launching a digital campaign in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tied to its recent $10 million television ad blitz meant to soften up Trump among white working class voters in those states. The group said it is running $850,000 worth of digital ads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (Michigan is coming later) over the next four weeks. The digital ads mirror the television and radio campaign.

— President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign has bought up some expensive online real estate. Trump’s campaign “purchased the coveted advertising space atop [YouTube,] the country’s most-visited video website for early November,” Bloomberg’s Mark Bergen and Joshua Brustein reported.

— Much of Bloomberg’s digital strategy is run through Hawkfish, a firm he founded in 2019. The Wall Street Journal’s Tarini Parti and Emily Glazer take a look inside the company: “The main task for Hawkfish is optimizing how the campaign buys digital ads and reaches voters on the issues they care about most, according to campaign aides. … Before Mr. Bloomberg announced his White House bid, Hawkfish updated available voter data that Democrats have used for years in order to make it more useful, according to people involved in the work.”

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A new South Carolina poll has the race tightening in the state. In a CBS News/YouGov poll, Biden is at 28 percent to Sanders 23 percent. Steyer is at 18 percent, Warren at 12 percent and Buttigieg at 10 percent (1,238 likely primary voters; Feb. 20-22; +/- 5.5 percentage point MOE).

— And CBS News/YouGov also ran a national poll, one of the first we’ve seen since the highly viewed Nevada debate. Sanders is at 28 percent, Warren is at 19 percent, Biden is at 17 percent, Bloomberg is at 13 percent and Buttigieg is at 10 percent (6,498 Democratic primary voters; Feb. 20-22; +/- 1.7 percentage point MOE).

— UMass Lowell/YouGov continues its string of Super Tuesday polling (all conducted pre-Nevada). In a California poll, Sanders is at 24 percent to Warren’s 16 percent. Biden was at 13 percent and Bloomberg and Buttigieg were each at 12 percent. (450 likely primary voters; Feb. 12-20; +/- 6.7 percentage point MOE). In Massachusetts, Sanders has 21 percent to home-stater Warren’s 20 percent. Buttigieg is at 15 percent, Biden at 14 percent and Bloomberg at 12 percent (450 likely primary voters; Feb. 12-19; +/- 6.1 percentage point MOE).

MONEY MOVES — The RNC has been paying Richard Walters, its chief of staff, both a salary and additional payments for “political strategy services” through a shell consulting company, ProPublica’s Mike Spies, Jake Pearson and Derek Willis reported.

— VoteVets, which has been backing Buttigieg’s campaign, hired one of Buttigieg’s former campaign fundraisers: Zach Allen, POLITICO’s Maggie Severns reported. Allan, Buttigieg’s former director of fundraising for the Tri-State area, was hired as a consultant at VoteVets after he “left the Buttigieg campaign last fall, according to two people familiar with the arrangement. Allen worked for the Buttigieg campaign as a contractor.”

Down the Ballot

THE CASH DASH — Of all the Super Tuesday House candidates who submitted pre-primary FEC reports, two stood out: Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who each spent over $1 million in the first six weeks of 2020 as they try to fend off primary challengers. Costa dropped $1.3 million as he faces a challenge from Fresno city Councilwoman Esmerelda Soria, and Cuellar spent $1.1 million for his showdown with Jessica Cisneros. Campaign Pro’s Ally Mutnick has more from the pre-primary reports (which includes contests in Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas) for Pros.

— Kelly is raking in money through ActBlue. The Arizona Democrat led the way for downballot Democrats in online fundraising in January, according to an analysis of ActBlue’s most-recent monthly filing (for Pros) from POLITICO’s Scott Bland. More from Scott: Kelly raised “nearly $3 million raised via ActBlue in January, while Kentucky’s Amy McGrath brought in $2.3 million, South Carolina’s Jaime Harrison raised $1.6 million and Maine’s Sara Gideon raised $1.4 million.” Sanders raised the most out of any ActBlue user in January — a whopping $23.3 million — and Pros can click through for more.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — The aforementioned UMass Lowell/YouGov poll in Massachusetts shows a neck-and-neck race in the Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) vs. Rep. Joe Kennedy primary. Kennedy is at 35 percent to Markey’s 34 percent. Eight percent said they’re backing another candidate and 23 percent are undecided.

— Speaker Nancy Pelosi headed to Texas to campaign for Cuellar in TX-28, The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek reported. Pelosi also headlined a DCCC fundraiser that featured Cuellar.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) endorsed a slate of women progressives, hoping to use it to set up Courage to Change, her PAC, as a progressive alternative to the DCCC. The New York Times’ Catie Edmondson reported that among the endorsed candidates is Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, who is running for the Senate in Texas. The New York Democrat did not endorse any challengers to incumbent House Democrats in this wave, however. (She had previously endorsed Cisneros and Marie Newman, who are challenging Cuellar and Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski, respectively.)

IN THE COURTS — The Supreme Court set argument dates for two cases Score readers may be interested in: a pair of cases on the legality of faithless Electoral College voters (read more here) on April 28 and one on the legality of a ban on autodialers calling cellphones brought by political consultants on April 22 (and read more here).

THE SENATE MAP — Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) didn’t seem interested in an exit ramp out of the race to challenge Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) in a special election, after Trump floated him as a potential director of national intelligence last week. “ Let me just tell you right now that I know the problems in our intelligence community, but this is not a job that interests me at this time,” Collins said on Fox Business, per POLITICO’s Quint Forgey. “It’s not one that I would accept because I’m running a Senate race down here in Georgia.”

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— FIRST IN SCORE — McGrath’s campaign argued they are locked in a tight race with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, citing a month-old internal poll in a new memo, Campaign Pro's James Arkin writes in. The poll from the Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang showing McConnell leading McGrath 43 percent 40 percent, with a libertarian candidate getting 5 percent and 12 percent undecided (802 likely voters; Jan 8-13; +/- 3.5 percentage point MOE).

THE HOUSE MAP — Republican Mike Beehler, a former executive of a Kansas City engineering firm, announced he’s challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in KS-03, per The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry. Beehler “splits his time between a condo in Florida and a house in Leawood. He said he changed his voter registration from Florida to Kansas last week.”

— A hacker with ties to former Rep. Katie Hill’s campaign was arrested “in connection with a hacking spree that disrupted the 2018 Democratic California primary that ultimately nominated” Hill, The Intercept’s Ryan Grim reported. Arthur “Dam’s wife is Kelsey O’Hara, Hill’s fundraiser during the campaign and her district director after she won office. … During the campaign, the websites of Hill’s opponents, Democrats Jess Phoenix and Bryan Caforio, who was supported by Justice Democrats, were both attacked”.

THE GOVERNATORS — New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, said he had a likely-cancerous tumor on one of his kidneys that he’ll have removed in March, NJ Advance Media’s Brent Johnson reported. Murphy said it was caught early and that he expects to make a full recovery.

WHAT’S IN A WORD? — The Republican National Committee sent some voters a “2020 Congressional District Census” in the mail — but it was actually a fundraising form. The Los Angeles Times’ Sarah Wire has more on the controversial mailer.

DON’T DO THAT — A federal judge sentenced Scott Mackenzie to just over a year in prison for his role in running conservative-themed scam PACs, the Center for Public Integrity’s Sarah Kleiner reported.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Amen, brother. The campaigns are too long.” — Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in an interview with The New Yorker.

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