More than ever, the sixth man award seems to favor hired guns.

ESPN Forecast: NBA Awards These NBA postseason award predictions are powered by ESPN Forecast.

The list of recent winners includes Jamal Crawford (twice), J.R. Smith and Jason Terry, and this season the front-runner is straight from central casting: Lou Williams, an old-school shot hunter.

Lou Williams

Toronto Raptors

Should win: 33 percent

Will win: 42 percent

Only 42 percent of our panelists think Williams will win, but that puts him far ahead of any other candidate. For a franchise that has had only five All-Stars and few award winners, this one will be sweet, Lou.

Isaiah Thomas

Boston Celtics

Should win: 24 percent

Will win: 18 percent

This sixth man is a one-man offense, and often scintillating. Had Thomas been with the Celtics all season, this might be his award to lose, and maybe he'll win it after all. But getting traded at midseason is usually not something players put on their résumé.

Jamal Crawford

Los Angeles Clippers

Should win: 9 percent

Will win: 19 percent

The defending Sixth Man of the Year has continued to display a knack for making difficult shots, but not enough of them this season -- he's down to 32.7 percent on 3-pointers.

Andre Iguodala

Golden State Warriors

Should win: 16 percent

Will win: 9 percent

Iguodala, the unsung Pippen of his generation, might be a bit overqualified as a sixth man, but that's one more thing that makes the Warriors so great.

Rudy Gobert

Utah Jazz

Should win: 7 percent

Will win: 3 percent

Gobert has the rare hat trick of showing up on three awards pages: Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player and Defensive Player of the Year.

Others receiving votes

Taj Gibson, Manu Ginobili, Nikola Mirotic, Patrick Patterson, Marreese Speights, Rodney Stuckey, Mo Williams, Brandan Wright.

Click below to see ESPN Forecast's 2014-15 award picks: