In their “New” swap situations who will rises to the top or be released like the chickens.

Lesu

Wentworth – She is the queen of this tribe. She has Wardog and Lauren in her back pocket with an obvious target in David. Kelley is sitting pretty right now for when they go to tribal next episode. Her allies are so loyal that she has no chance of going home on this tribe. Overall, Wentworth’s risky gameplay on Manu paid off. Lauren – I think the promo is trying to fool us since Lauren is Wentworth’s most loyal ally and she will not flip on the only person she fully trusts. Lauren managed to survive while sick and still be the best in that challenge for Lesu. Lauren also has an idol that she correctly did not play. Lauren is being set up for an underdog arc based on her not giving up while sick and getting a new dimension outside of her bond with Wentworth. Overall, Lauren is looking great right now. Wardog – Wardog made the correct decision for him last tribe but I am not sure about his choice to target Lauren next vote. He is way more loyal to Wentworth than she is to him. I could see Wardog ironically being betrayed by a close ally like what he did to Chris. Also, He is the third in that trio so if they lose when they are down to three, he is done. Overall, Wardog is in a decent spot but he could be exposed due to his plan in the preview. David – Not a great week for David. He has to start over on a new beach, loses the challenge and his closest ally. David is obvious next vote on that tribe unless someone screws up hard. David is a dead man walking to extinction currently. Overall, David is dead unless Wardog’s plan blows up.

This is a legendary disaster tribe. I hope Wardog goes so we can call it the domino tribe as u/punsrpunsrpuns describes the Manu domino theory. Their theory was that the person who betrays the last person voted out becomes the new target. Link to that post : https://www.reddit.com/r/survivor/comments/b12xxs/manu_domino_theory/

Manu

Victoria – She is in a great spot right now. She is aligned with the original Kama and is also in the majority as a woman. She has multiple options if they go to a vote. She can stick with Gavin and Eric or make a girl’s alliance with Aubry and Wendy. Going forward she is probably the safest member of Manu currently. Overall, She has been playing a strong game for someone who has never been to tribal. Aubry – Aubry is in the same position and has an idol. The only reason she is below Victoria is due to Victoria having a better social game currently. Aubry has almost fully recovered from that episode 2 debacle and now has some wiggle room. She benefited from the swap more than anyone. Overall, Aubry is now a force in this game. Gavin – He has been quiet recently which does not sit well for his chances but I think he is safe for the next vote since the girls are talking about specifically Eric in the promo. As a Kama member, he has the majority and an easy target. Overall, Gavin is safe but I don’t know about his chance of winning. Eric – He is purely here due to the promo. If something flips on Manu, it’s gonna flip on him. Eric does have a loyal partner in Gavin and a connection to Victoria and somewhat Aubry. Overall, Eric is safe if tribe lines stay separate. Wendy – Wendy has been a great character but a bottom tier Survivor player. She is already in the bad graces of her new tribe as the sole member of Manu. In addition to that, she let the chickens free. Wendy has been a dead girl walking for the past three episodes but Wendy somehow makes it through. Wendy is the obvious boot unless the promo comes to fruition. Overall, Wendy is probably the next boot.

This tribe seems lopsided but I think that they could have an interesting tribal if they lose.

Kama

Ron – Ron played really smart with the whole distract Joe maneuver. Ron seems to have a great social game since he was the person Joe wanted on his side. Overall, Ron is in the best spot on “New” Kama. Julia – She did something this week! She played her part in the bag raid and seems to be good with everyone. Overall, She is not winning but she is a good spot. Julie – The peeing queen! Seriously, she has two confessionals involving peeing. She is doing so well that being an older woman on a smaller tribe does not seem to affect her position. Overall, Good spot but needs more content. Aurora – Aurora’s whole edit is that she likes Joe. Aurora could be in danger as a back up target and she is not as much of an asset as Joe in challenges. Aurora could be in a tight spot. I don’t think she will be booted over Joe since they know Joe does not have an idol but she is not in the majority. Joe – Joe excels on small tribes since he is such a competitor but not this tribe. Joe is on the bottom of the tribe but his strength might carry him to the merge. If they lose Joe is done since they know he is vulnerable. Overall, he is in a tough spot but he could keep winning tribal immunity.

Kama is the least interesting tribe and I don’t see them losing anytime soon.

Extinction

Chris – Chris did not get a warm welcome but he eventually won them over. Chris got a great confessional about failure and it seems like they’re trying to set up a remdemption arc for him. He is the stronger person there by far so he is the frontrunner to win a challenge to get back in. I feel good about him. Rick – Rick is not getting a warm welcome next episode. Rick is likable so if they vote someone back, he could have a shot. If it’s challenge, Chris will smoke him. Overall, I could see Rick as a long time resident of Extinction. Reem – God she was bitter about Chris. This was hypocritical since Keith betrayed her and she welcomed him with open arms. I see Reem staying around just to make everyone miserable and out of spite. I don’t see her quitting but I don’t see her getting back in. Keith – Keith was also very bitter. I put him last since he is the most likely to quit of the current group and he is not winning the challenge back. Overall, I see Keith quiting after the first oppurtunity to go back.

The purple players of the week will be most of the new Kama tribe since they did not even get a single shot showing them in the Next time promo.

The next boot will be either Wendy, Eric, David, Wardog or Joe but, this is a double episode so, two people are going to Extinction.

The double episode, like last time, will be two separate blog posts.

Grab our stuff and head back to camp!