Milwaukee homicides year to date fall 32% from 2018, as other crimes also drop, chief says

Homicides year to date in Milwaukee are down 32% compared with the same time last year, and other categories of crime are also on a downward trend, Milwaukee Police Chief Alfonso Morales told a committee of the Common Council Thursday.

Members of the Public Safety and Health Committee commended the department on the results.

"I will tell you, like everyone else, this is a much different feeling hearing stats and knowing what we're hearing from community members," Ald. José Pérez said. "Knowing what we're hearing from residents there is a difference, and it jives with what we're hearing when we hear those stats."

The numbers show 30 homicides as of May 31 this year compared with 44 the same time last year.

Between 2017 and 2018, for which full-year figures are available, the city saw a 17% drop in homicides, Morales told the committee.

In a city with a population of about 600,000, Morales said, there should be under 100 homicides each year. In 2018, he reported, that number was 99.

"There is no homicide that is acceptable," he said. "There is no nonfatal shooting that is acceptable. But these are the numbers, these are the goals that we like to keep and stay under."

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The department's strategy is to focus on the 10% of people who are driving crime.

"When you focus on the 10%, you're also going to find that the 10% is involved in other illegal activities," Morales said. "It could be stealing cars, it could be robberies, it could be domestic violence."

He acknowledged, too, the numbers could jump in the summer months.

"I don't want to boast these things and say Milwaukee is cured," he said. "I want to say that we're headed in the right direction."

Morales also credited research and collaborations with community organizations that provide non-law enforcement resources to address and prevent crime.

The city has seen 27% fewer nonfatal shootings as of May 31 this year compared with the same time last year. That's a drop from 181 in that period in 2018 to 132 this year.

Morales told reporters after Thursday's meeting that the city has done well bringing the numbers down in the last 12 months — a trend he wants to see continue.

"Gun violence has to drop and that's what the focus should be holistically throughout the department, looking at some of these neighborhoods and finding better ways to address the problems," he said.

He referenced economic, educational and transportation problems.

"It's not different than what I said last year: I wanted to re-establish relationships with our system partners, our intergovernmental partners and our community partners," Morales told reporters. "It holds true that if you do that, you will see results."

At the Fire and Police Commission meeting Thursday night, Morales attributed part of the lower numbers to abandoning saturation patrols.

"What we do differently is we identify the neighborhoods that have high numbers, but we don't inundate them with police," he said. "What we do is look at the root causes in those neighborhoods. That's where we call our district captains ... to come forward and assist with those problems."

Homicide clearance rate at 76% last year

The department had a 76% clearance rate for homicides in 2018.

So far this year, that number is at 94%.

"I think that goes towards the hard work of the men and women of the Milwaukee Police Department as well as the community coming forward, developing relationships with the community. ... It is a community and Police Department combating what's happening, and that leads to a higher clearance rate," Assistant Police Chief Steven Caballero said.

The clearance rate includes all homicide arrests in a given year, no matter when the crime occurred. For example, an arrest made this month counts toward this year's rate, even if the killing occurred years ago.

This means it’s possible for a police department to have an annual clearance rate above 100%, even if homicides from that current year remain unsolved.

A police department determines if any crime is cleared using guidance from FBI crime reporting standards. A case can be considered cleared even if no one is convicted or charged.

For example, Milwaukee police reported a 76% clearance rate for last year. However, by the end of 2018 only 51% of the homicides in that year had a suspect arrested and charged or a suspect who was killed.

Milwaukee's rising clearance rate is not surprising. The homicide rate has slowed this year, giving detectives lower caseloads. In addition, the department's cold case unit has been active — issuing charges in three cold cases in one week earlier this year — and Morales has reorganized the department, rebuilding support units for the homicide unit.

Vehicle pursuits jump 155% in 2018

Vehicle pursuits last year increased to 941 from 369 in 2017.

As of May 31 this year, there had been 403 vehicle pursuits.

Assistant Chief Michael Brunson said the previous policy that limited pursuits made it possible for suspects to flee police with impunity.

"The fact that we are engaging in these pursuits, we believe, has contributed to some of the decreases that we are seeing as these individuals now are being apprehended, where in the past they were able to escape," he said.

Morales told reporters after the meeting that not chasing suspects in vehicles led to a number of consequences, including a mobile drug market and increases in carjackings and vehicle thefts.

At the Fire and Police Commission Thursday night, Brunson explained the reasoning behind the increased vehicle pursuits.

"In one month alone, we had over 1,000 individuals who refused to pull over for police officers," Brunson said of 2017. "Based on that, the policy was changed."

Police also noted other data points:

There have been 29% fewer carjackings as of May 31 this year compared with the same time last year. That's a drop from 149 in that period in 2018 to 106 this year.

Memorial Day weekend this year saw one homicide and six nonfatal shootings, a drop from four and 17, respectively, last year. There were seven carjackings during that weekend in both 2018 and 2019.

The figures for rape showed an increase of 13% from 2017 to 2018, but Morales said that was due to a change in how rapes are reported, including within the school system and the inclusion in recent years of male victims in the figures. As of May 31 this year, that number showed a drop of 10% compared with the same date last year.

Fourteen neighborhoods account for more than 40% of the overall violent crime. Of those, five account for more than 30% of homicides and 12 account for more than 40% of nonfatal shootings. In those 14 neighborhoods, Morales said, there are a number of issues that require a community response. Those are places where the leadership team is also spending time, he said.

Ald. Bob Donovan commended the department, adding, "I think it's absolutely critical that the cooperation and the work with the community continues, and while we see the stats going in the right direction I would also very humbly suggest that we don't go overboard on statistics."

He said he had seen past chiefs focus solely on data when the numbers didn't comport with feelings in the community.

Paul Mozina, who attended the meeting, said even though he still has concerns about the Police Department, the numbers looked positive.

"I want transparency and clarity in the police response, but I'm also not blind or opposed to acknowledging positive things," he said.

Mozina said he hopes to see more communication between police and oversight groups and is unsure if the positive trend in numbers will continue throughout the summer.

"I would hope to see more of that community-police dialogue," he said.

"I have hopes and that's all I can say."

Contact Alison Dirr at 414-224-2383 or adirr@jrn.com. Follow her on Twitter @AlisonDirr.

Contact Talis Shelbourne at (414) 223-5261 or tshelbourn@jrn.com. Follow her on Twitter at @talisseer and Facebook at @talisseer.

Ashley Luthern and Talis Shelbourne of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.