Minn. 172 Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Ted Cruz. Alaska Republican Primary Contests 71 Tenn. 16 Okla. circles are sized by number of Delegates RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Donald J. Trump appears to fare best in an unusual mix of states in the South and the Northeast. Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. If Marco Rubio can survive Super Tuesday, moderate states will probably give him an edge later on. Virginia Md. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. Minn. 172 Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Ted Cruz. Alaska 71 Republican Primary Contests Tenn. 16 circles are sized by number of Delegates Okla. RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Donald J. Trump appears likely to fare best in an unusual mix of states in the South and the Northeast. Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. If Marco Rubio can survive Super Tuesday, moderate states will probably give him an edge later on. Virginia Md. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. 172 Republican Primary Contests Minn. Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Ted Cruz. 71 Alaska 16 Tenn. RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS circles are sized by number of Delegates Okla. Donald J. Trump appears likely to fare best in an unusual mix of states in the South and the Northeast. Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Ariz. S.C. Ind. Ala. Wash. Wis. Ky. Neb. Iowa Mt. Nev. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.H. N.M. Ore. Utah Ohio Mich. N.Y. Texas Penn. Mo. California Md. Virginia Illinois R.I. Vt. N.J. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Conn. Mass. If Marco Rubio can survive Super Tuesday, moderate states will probably give him an edge later on. Republican Primary Contests RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS MN Donald J. Trump appears likely to fare best in an unusual mix of states in the South and the Northeast. AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA If Marco Rubio can survive Super Tuesday, moderate states will probably give him an edge later on. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Republican Primary Contests RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Donald J. Trump appears likely to fare best in an unusual mix of states in the South and the Northeast. MN AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA If Marco Rubio can survive Super Tuesday, moderate states will probably give him an edge later on. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Colors show the proportion of Republican voters in each state who are estimated to be “very conservative.”

The New Hampshire primary typically features one of the most moderate Republican electorates in the country, and it has a reputation for offering strong showings to relatively secular and iconoclastic candidates like John McCain in 2000, Jon Huntsman in 2012 and now John Kasich. Conservative candidates can count on better opportunities later; moderates like Mr. Kasich might find that New Hampshire is as good as it gets.

Donald Trump

There is little precedent for how a candidate like Donald Trump can go from New Hampshire to the nomination, mainly because there has never been a candidate quite like him. His support is broad, and it spans many of the traditional ideological and demographic divides that usually define the geography of primary contests. He won virtually every demographic group in New Hampshire.

Minn. Donald Trump could perform well in South Carolina and many Super Tuesday states. Alaska Donald Trump’s Key States Tenn. Okla. Mr. Trump’s best state is estimated to be West Virginia, followed by New York. RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Highlighted states are where Mr. Trump is most popular among Republicans, often in areas with high levels of racial resentment. Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. Virginia Md. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. Minn. Donald Trump could perform well in South Carolina and many Super Tuesday states. Alaska Donald Trump’s Key States Tenn. Okla. Mr. Trump’s best state is estimated to be West Virginia, followed by New York. RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Highlighted states are where Mr. Trump is most popular among Republicans, often in areas with high levels of racial resentment. Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. Virginia Md. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. Minn. Donald Trump could perform well in South Carolina and many Super Tuesday states. Alaska Donald Trump’s Key States Tenn. Highlighted states are where Mr. Trump is most popular among Republicans, often in areas with high levels of racial resentment. Okla. RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Ariz. S.C. Ind. Ala. Wash. Wis. Ky. Neb. Iowa Mt. Nev. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.H. N.M. Ore. Utah Ohio Mich. N.Y. Texas Penn. Mo. California Md. Virginia Illinois R.I. Vt. N.J. Conn. BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Mass. Donald Trump’s Key States RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Donald Trump could perform well in South Carolina and many Super Tuesday states. MN AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Highlighted states are where Mr. Trump is most popular among Republicans, often in areas with high levels of racial resentment. Donald Trump’s Key States RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Donald Trump could perform well in South Carolina and many Super Tuesday states. MN AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA BLUE STATES HAVE MODERATE PRIMARY VOTERS Highlighted states are where Mr. Trump is most popular among Republicans, often in areas with high levels of racial resentment.

But Mr. Trump appears to fare best in the South, Appalachia and the industrial Northeast, according to data from Civis Analytics, a Democratic firm. Mr. Trump’s best state is West Virginia, followed by New York. He fares worse farther West, in traditionally Republican areas where measures of racial resentment are lower. South Carolina, where Mr. Trump leads in the few polls conducted so far, and the Southern states on Super Tuesday should represent a strong opportunity for his campaign.

Marco Rubio

The results in New Hampshire were not good news for Mr. Rubio, who finished fifth. New Hampshire was not supposed to be a particularly difficult state for him – although the large number of mainstream conservative candidates helped split his potential supporters to a far greater extent than in Iowa.

Minn. Mr. Rubio and other mainstream Republicans will have a big hurdle to clear on Super Tuesday, which includes many conservative and religious states. Alaska Marco Rubio’s Key States Tenn. Okla. Kansas Highlighted states have more highly educated voters, who are more likely to vote for moderate candidates. Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. Even if Mr. Rubio loses most early states, he could be in a good position for a comeback by winning Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Virginia Md. Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. Minn. Mr. Rubio and other mainstream Republicans will have a big hurdle to clear on Super Tuesday, which includes many conservative and religious states. Alaska Marco Rubio’s Key States Tenn. Okla. Kansas Highlighted states have more highly educated voters, who are more likely to vote for moderate candidates. Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. Even if Mr. Rubio loses most early states, he could be in a good position for a comeback by winning Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Virginia Md. Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. Minn. Alaska Tenn. Marco Rubio’s Key States Highlighted states have more highly educated voters, who are more likely to vote for moderate candidates. Okla. Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Ariz. S.C. Ind. Ala. Wash. Wis. Ky. Neb. Iowa Mt. Nev. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.H. N.M. Ore. Utah Ohio Mich. N.Y. Texas Penn. Mo. California Md. Virginia Illinois R.I. Vt. N.J. Conn. Mass. Even if Mr. Rubio loses most early states, he could be in a good position for a comeback by winning Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Marco Rubio’s Key States Highlighted states have more highly educated voters, who are more likely to vote for moderate candidates. MN AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA Even if Mr. Rubio loses most early states, he could be in a good position for a comeback by winning Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Marco Rubio’s Key States Highlighted states have more highly educated voters, who are more likely to vote for moderate candidates. MN AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA Even if Mr. Rubio loses most early states, he could be in a good position for a comeback by winning Florida, Illinois and Ohio.

Mr. Rubio’s biggest challenge is the sheer number of relatively mainstream conservative candidates, like Jeb Bush and Mr. Kasich, not the potential breadth of his appeal. Any of them could eventually emerge as the strongest establishment candidate. Whoever it is will have a big hurdle to clear on Super Tuesday, which includes many conservative and more religious states.

But if a mainstream Republican emerges and survives Super Tuesday, he will have ample opportunities to make a comeback later in March, including critically important primaries in Florida and Ohio. The schedule becomes even more favorable in April and May, when the primary season turns to the delegate-rich moderate and well-educated states along the coasts, including New York, California and New Jersey.

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz fared well in Iowa, and poorly in New Hampshire. It’s not a surprise: He excels among self-described “very conservative” voters and struggles among everyone else. To the extent he even holds modest strength among less conservative voters, it’s among evangelical voters. They’re underrepresented in New Hampshire as well.

Minn. Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Ted Cruz. Alaska Ted Cruz’s Key States Tenn. Highlighted states have the highest numbers of evangelical voters, a key voting bloc for Mr. Cruz. Okla. RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. Mr. Cruz faces an uphill battle in April and May. Virginia Md. Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. Minn. Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Ted Cruz. Alaska Ted Cruz’s Key States Tenn. Highlighted states have the highest numbers of evangelical voters, a key voting bloc for Mr. Cruz. Okla. RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Kansas Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida Arizona Ind. S.C. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Nev. Iowa Mt. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.M. N.H. Ore. Utah Michigan Ohio N.Y. Texas Pa. California Mo. Mr. Cruz faces an uphill battle in April and May. Virginia Md. Illinois R.I. N.J. Vt. Conn. Mass. Minn. Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Ted Cruz. Alaska Ted Cruz’s Key States Tenn. Okla. Highlighted states have the highest numbers of evangelical voters, a key voting bloc for Mr. Cruz. Kansas RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Georgia Me. N.C. Idaho La. Ark. W.V. S.D. Miss. Florida S.C. Ariz. Ind. Ala. Ky. Wash. Wis. Neb. Iowa Mt. Nev. Hawaii Feb. 1 9 20 23 March 1 5 8 15 22 April 5 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 June 7 Del. N.H. N.M. Ore. Utah Ohio Mich. N.Y. Texas Penn. Mo. California Md. Virginia Illinois R.I. Mr. Cruz faces an uphill battle in April and May. Vt. N.J. Conn. Mass. Ted Cruz’s Key States RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Mr. Cruz, but later states are less favorable. MN AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA Highlighted states have the highest numbers of evangelical voters, a key voting bloc for Mr. Cruz. Ted Cruz’s Key States RED STATES HAVE CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY VOTERS Conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Mr. Cruz, but later states are less favorable. MN AK TN OK KS GA ME NC ID LA AR WV SD MS FL AZ SC IN AL WA WI NE KY NV IA MT HI Feb. March April May June DE NM OR NH UT MI OH NY TX PA MO CA MD VA IL RI VT NJ CT MA Highlighted states have the highest numbers of evangelical voters, a key voting bloc for Mr. Cruz.

For Mr. Cruz, the challenge is to build a large enough coalition of “very conservative” and religious voters. If he can do so, he can compete in a host of Southern states with far more moderate voters than in Iowa but with large numbers of evangelicals.