Todd Spangler

Detroit Free Press

Trump continues to eat into Clinton's once-safe lead in Michigan

Poll shows competitive race heading into last weekend before election

Clinton still ahead, with signs of support among women, African Americans

Hillary Clinton is hanging onto a narrow 4-point lead over Donald Trump in Michigan heading into the last weekend before Tuesday’s election, with a new Free Press poll showing clear momentum for the Republican nominee in a state that several weeks ago was believed all but decided for the Democrat.

The poll, done exclusively for the Free Press by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, shows Clinton’s support steady at 42% — up a point from where it was late last month. But it also clearly shows Republicans and some independents rallying around Trump in the waning days of the campaign season, with his support up four points from two weeks ago to 38%.

Meanwhile, the number of undecided voters — 13% — remains extraordinarily high for this late in an election cycle, speaking to the high unfavorable marks voters give both major party candidates. Should they break for Trump on Election Day, it could be decisive, though with that high a number this late in the campaign it could indicate many will sit out this race altogether.

►Free Press 2016 Endorsements:The full list

“Half of them I think are going to end up not going to the polls,” said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn. “A lot of them are not motivated to vote.” The new poll showed Trump’s surge of support not coming from undecided voters or from voters switching from Clinton, but from those who had previously voiced support for Libertarian Gary Johnson. As the election approaches, Johnson’s support fell from nine points two weeks ago to five points now.

EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 likely voters between Tuesday and Thursday for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means that while the poll showed a lead for Clinton in Michigan — which hasn’t turned for a Republican nominee for president since George H.W. Bush in 1988 — the state could well be in play on Tuesday, depending on whose voters turn out.

►Voter Guide: Hear what the candidates have to say

►Related: Mike Pence stops in Lansing during final election push

Before the March Democratic primary, polls done for the Free Press and other news organizations showed a clear, double-digit lead for Clinton over her rival for the nomination, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. But Sanders was able to capitalize on low turnout in traditional Democratic areas like Detroit to take a narrow — and surprising — victory over Clinton in Michigan, leading to plenty of Democratic jitters about what could happen Tuesday.

Certainly both campaigns have been treating Michigan as important recently. Clinton was in Detroit on Friday for a get-out-the-vote rally in Eastern Market, and important surrogates for her have been in town most of the week, including her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Trump visited Grand Rapids and Warren earlier this week, and his children and running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, have been here as well. Both campaigns are advertising in Michigan, too.

If Trump could turn Michigan — which has always been among his targets as he went after disaffected, white, working-class voters in the Rust Belt — it could help him broach Clinton’s firewall of traditionally Democratic-voting states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A win in any of them, coupled with wins in North Carolina, Nevada or New Hampshire, could help turn the tide for the Republican nationally.

Real Clear Politics, a website that aggregates and averages out poll data, gives Clinton a 5.4-percentage-point lead in Michigan, counting the new Free Press poll — but that is a vast improvement for Trump given that Clinton's lead on the site was a whopping 12 points on Oct. 20, after Trump had been hurt by poor debate performances against her and an old "Access Hollywood" tape was released with Trump talking about his being able to kiss women and grab their genitals without their consent because of his celebrity.

As that controversy has faded from view, Trump's numbers have rebounded in battleground states, including Michigan, and nationally, though Clinton still holds small leads in Florida, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. The website FiveThirtyEight.com, which analyzes polling data, showed her with a 66% chance of winning the presidency Tuesday, but noted that if polls are only slightly off across the U.S., Trump could win.

Still, there was much for Clinton to be heartened by in the new Free Press poll. Her voters still tended to be more enthusiastic than Trump's on a scale of 1-10, and she continued to maintain a lead — albeit, a shrinking one — over Trump with younger voters, ahead 39%-36% among voters age 18-34. Among black voters, her margin grew substantially to 92% compared with 88% two weeks ago, as the number of undecided voters shrank.

She also continued to beat Trump not only among college educated voters — 42%-36% — but among those with a high school diploma or less education, 45%-34%. Trump had widely been expected to win among the latter. She also maintained sizable leads among labor union members and labor households overall.

Trump, however, has eaten into her lead in metro Detroit, the most populous part of the state, which she now leads 48%-35% compared with 50%-26% two weeks ago, when her overall lead in the state was seven points. That was before FBI Director James Comey announced that the agency would look into new e-mails found on a computer server belonging to former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, the husband of one of her top aides.

Clinton still holds a 61%-15% lead over Trump in Wayne County, but is now trailing him 41%-31% in Macomb, long considered a spot where Trump could attract disaffected, white, working-class voters. Perhaps more ominously for Clinton, her lead was down to 41%-37% in Oakland County, 10 points off what it was in late October. In Detroit, she led Trump 92%-2% with 3% undecided — but most pundits believe that turnout in the city will be key to her chances.

Outstate, Trump leads — but only slightly — by 40%-38%.

Trump also held a similar 40%-36% lead among men statewide, a point up from two weeks ago, with 15% undecided. Among women, Clinton still had a commanding 11-point lead, 47%-36%, though that was down from 15% in late October. Twelve percent of women were undecided.

Among the 20% of voters who said that they had already turned in their absentee ballots, Clinton held a slight edge, 41%-37%. But a large share — 17% — declined to share who they voted for.

The poll showed Clinton getting 83% of the support from the 42% of respondents who self-identified as Democrats, with Trump getting 80% of the support from the 36% of those who described themselves as Republicans. That was a five-point increase for Trump among Republicans, while Clinton's share of Democrats increased by a point.

Among the 19% of those surveyed who identified as independents, Trump led 32%-21%, compared with a virtual 26%-25% tie two weeks ago. Undecideds among independent still remained sky high, however, at 33%.

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.