It would, perhaps, be the defining irony of Arsène Wenger’s uneasy relationship with Chelsea if it turns out that when he finally devised a way of beating them it provoked a tactical shift that won the Blues the title. Since Chelsea switched to a back three when 3-0 down at half-time at the Emirates, they have conceded only once, winning seven Premier League games in a row. They passed one major test by coming from behind to beat Tottenham last week but on Saturday represents an even more severe examination as they go to Manchester City.

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Pep Guardiola against Antonio Conte: the intense brooder against the manic extrovert, two men obsessed by tactics. Conte spends up to an hour a day working with his players on shape; Guardiola is a perpetual tinkerer, forever adjusting positions on the pitch looking for the best disposition to expose the opposition’s weakness. And, implausible as it may have seemed in the first month of the season, it feels as though it is City who need to adjust, that Chelsea have a balanced formation, confidence and momentum and that it is up to Guardiola to disrupt it.

Guardiola’s instinct is always, as he often says, to be bold. He is not someone who naturally looks to contain or frustrate. He will take the game to Chelsea, not just because City are at home but because that is how he believes football should be played.

Chelsea’s two worst performances of the season, at home to Liverpool and away at Arsenal, came against opponents who pressed them early and attacked with pace. City naturally do that. It is true the Liverpool and Arsenal matches came before the shift to the back three but Tottenham showed in the first half last Saturday that Chelsea can be rattled, as most teams can, by a hard and high press.

The advantage City have over Spurs, particularly when it comes to facing Chelsea, is they have natural attacking wide men. Raheem Sterling went off during the second half against Burnley but should be fit to take his place on one flank with either Nolito or Leroy Sané on the other. Whether it is Sterling on the right and Nolito on the left, or Sterling on the left and Sané on the right, City have pace and aggression that can attack any space behind the wing-backs. Marcos Alonso and, particularly, Victor Moses have excelled in those roles in recent weeks but neither has faced a defensive test of this magnitude. And if Chelsea’s wing-backs are defending, or at least looking anxiously over their shoulders, then they will be less able to link up with Pedro and Eden Hazard in the inside-forward positions.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Raheem Sterling went off injured against Burnley but should be fit to take one of Manchester City’s wide attacking positions against Chelsea. Photograph: Gareth Copley/Getty Images

City also use inside-forwards but how they deal with Chelsea’s will perhaps govern the shape of their own midfield. Guardiola has used two basic systems for his five rearmost players this season: a back four protected by a deep-lying midfielder or a back three protected by two. Even with the back-four option, in possession, he likes to operate a 3-2 shape. Initially he achieved that by having the full-backs tuck in but in the absence of those as comfortable on the ball as Philipp Lahm and David Alaba, Guardiola had John Stones step up.

The classic Cruyffian theory is to have one more defender than the opposition have forwards, which would mean using two centre-backs – that is, a back four – and giving the full-backs the licence to push on, increasing the pressure on Chelsea’s wing-backs. The danger in this instance, though, is that leaves Fernandinho, as the holding midfielder, caught between Pedro and Hazard.

It may make more sense to use two deep-lying midfielders in Fernandinho and Ilkay Gündogan. Guardiola in recent weeks has taken to fielding more of a 4-2-3-1 and he has the option of bringing in Fernando, who played at Tottenham in October, or Yaya Touré. The question is what advantage the full-backs confer against this Chelsea system; it seems to make more sense to use two deep-lying midfielders with a back three behind them. Nicolás Otamendi can pick up Diego Costa, with either Aleksandar Kolarov or Stones pushing up to help deal with Pedro and Hazard as required and the other acting as a spare man. That has the additional advantage of getting an extra passer into the team.

With Gündogan and Fernandinho together at the back of midfield City should be able to control possession. Fernando’s comparative lack of quality on the ball was shown up at Spurs, while there must still be a doubt as to whether Touré has the energy for a game of this intensity. That then leaves Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva to operate as free No8s, posing just the same problem to N’Golo Kanté and Nemanja Matic that Pedro and Hazard will be causing Gündogan and Fernandinho. The significant difference is City should have the bulk of the possession and will have more attacking wide men.

That suggests City have an edge but so long as Moses and Alonso can stand up to the defensive challenge, it really means nothing more than they will have more of the ball. The question then is whether a defence who have proved susceptible to counterattacks all season can deal with Chelsea on the break.