In this article I’ll dive into a potential Sharks trade for Matt Duchene. I’ll try to make this post as extensive as possible, and have therefore divided it into three sub-categories. First off, why should the Sharks trade for Duchene. Secondly, what was his previous value when he got traded to Ottawa last year. And finally, what is his current value and what type of package could the Sharks build to acquire him? If you’re only interested in what I think could be required to get Duchene, I suggest you skip to the end.

So let’s get started.

Why should the Sharks trade for Matt Duchene?

The main reason the Sharks should look into potentially trading for Matt Duchene is something I’ve brought up earlier, the lack of a proper first line centre. Don’t get me wrong, Couture is a brilliant player, but atleast in my eyes he’s a very good second line centre. He’s more of a 1b than a 1a. Perhaps you’re asking yourself, well is Duchene that much better? Looking at his stats from last year at first glance it might not look like he his. But as you dive down deeper you see that he still has the potential to be a brilliant player, perhaps even scoring at a P/PG pace. On the 5th of November last year Duchene was traded from the Colorado Avalanche to the Ottawa Senators in a 3-way trade. During his 68 games with the Senators Duchene scored 49 points. Which might seem, well, unimpressive. But he actually performed a lot better than you might think. You have to remember that when a player gets moved they don’t only change teams, city and teammates they’re also introduced to a brand new system, which might take a while for them to learn. Duchene scored only 6 points in his first 24 games with the Senators. But once he had gotten adjusted to his new team he picked up the pace, scoring 43 points in his last 44 games. And remember that this was his performance on a terrible senators team that was, and still is, a complete dumpster fire. Duchene would also help the Sharks get faster, something they in my opinion need to do especially with the recent loss of Mikkel Boedker. Duchene would be a lethal offensive weapons in the Sharks line-up while Couture would, as he usually does, carry the heavier defensive responsibility.

What was Duchenes previous value?

The trade that took Duchene to Ottawa was as I said earlier a 3-way trade between the Senators, Nashville and Colorado. The Senators traded Kyle Turris to Nashville for Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and a 2nd round pick. Ottawa then proceeded to flip this return while adding Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers a 1st and a 3rd round pick to Colorado for Duchene. So in the end Duchene was traded for a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, a 3rd round pick, three prospects and a back-up goalie. That seems very high and certainly not a return the Sharks would be able to match, but what was actually the real value of these pieces? Since we all know the value of draft picks in different rounds, let’s focus on the players only.

Andrew Hammond is quite easy to value, he is, or more correctly was, a decent back-up. In other words, he wasn’t worth that much. We all remember the amazing run he had back in the 2014-15 season basically carrying the Senators to a play-off spot but he’s never been able to replicate the success he had during those 20 or so games. During the 2015-16 season he played 24 games finishing the season with a .914SVS% and a 2.35 GAA, which is decent for a back-up goalie. But it’s been all downhill from there. In the following season he only played 6 games wrapping it up with a .837SVS% and a 4.08 GAA, effectively tanking any trade value he had left. He didn’t play a single game for the Senators during the season he was traded and only played one game for Colorado before being sent down to the AHL. So what was Hammonds value in this deal? Next to nothing.

Now onto the prospects. Let’s start off with Vladislav Kamenev. Kamenev is a russian left-winger drafted by Nashville in 2014 as the #42 overall pick. At the time of the trade he hadn’t been able to find any success with Nashville, only playing two games in the NHL without being able to produce anything except two penalty minutes. He was quite successful in the AHL however scoring 51 points in 70 games with the Milwaukee Admirals. He started the 2017-2018 season in the AHL scoring 8 points in 10 games before he was traded. After the trade he played 3 games with Colorado, without once again scoring any points, before he unfortunately broke his arm on November 16th. Basically Kamenev is your average second round pick. At the time of the trade he hadn’t really showed any clear signs of brilliance, but there’s no doubt that the potential was there.

Shane Bowers was the Senators most recent first round pick at the time of the trade being drafted #28 overall in the 2017 draft. He plays as a centre in the NCAA with Boston University where he scored 32 points in 40 games. Since Bowers was such a recent pick it’s hard to estimate his exact value, but a fresh first round pick will always be expensive. Next up, Samuel Girard. Girard was in my opinion the centre-piece of this trade. He was drafted #47 overall in the 2016 draft but exceeded all expectations. During the 2017-2018 season the 19 year old defenseman had already established himself as an NHL player with 3 points in 5 games for Nashville. After the trade he continued his fine play with Colorado scoring another 20 points in 68 games. There’s no doubt that Girard was the best player and most valuable piece in the Matt Duchene trade.

So to sum up Duchene fetched a return of one 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, a 3rd round pick, one decent prospect with good AHL numbers (Kamenev), a recent first round pick (Bowers), one NHL-ready prospect (Girard) and one goaltender that’s barely NHL-level (Hammond). Needless to say, that’s quite a haul. If the Senators are still asking for a similar package in order for another team to acquire Duchene, the Sharks GM Doug Wilson should hang up the phone immediately. However, I feel pretty confident that Duchenes value has dropped quite significantly, for a number of reasons.

What is Duchenes current value?

The most obvious reason for Duchenes value dropping is the length of his contract. After this upcoming season he’ll be an Unrestricted Free Agent, meaning that a trade for Duchene would practically be a rental. The Senators would of course have to take this into consideration and therefore lower the asking price. Secondly, as we all know the Senators are in financial troubles and heading into a rebuild, even though they were one goal away from the Stanley Cup finals in 2017. Are they prepared to give Duchene the extension he’ll want at the end of next season, and more importantly is Duchene even interested in staying with Ottawa? Considering the situation that the organisation is in at the moment I highly doubt it. When you combine these factors I see no reason as to why Duchene should be worth as much as he was when the OTT-NSH-AVS trade occured.

The Ryan O’Reilly trade last week also makes this even more interesting, as it is a decent comparable. O’Reilly is just as old as Duchene, scored two more points last year and is widely regarded as one of the best two-way centres in the league. And he was traded for Thompson who scored 9 points in 41 games for the blues (drafted #26 overall in the 2016 draft), Vladimir Sobotka (31 points in 81 games), Patrik Berglund (26 points in 57 games), a 2019 first round and a 2021 2nd rounder. It’s also important to remember that O’Reillys contract expires after the 2020-21 season making him more than just a rental which automatically increases his price in comparison to Duchene.

What kind of package could the Sharks create to acquire Duchene?

Despite all this, Duchene most certainly won’t be cheap. For starters we can assume that a potential trade would involve our first round pick in 2020. Meaning we would go two straight years without any picks in the first round (the 2019 first round pick was traded in the Evander Kane deal), which definitely makes me a bit worrisome. The trade would also of course involve some prospects. Since acquiring Duchene would make the Sharks stronger down the middle I think it makes sense for them to trade centre-prospects, such as Maxim Letunov and Dylan Gambrell.

Here’s one of the potential trade scenarios that I came up with. The Sharks send the 2020 first round pick, the 2019 third round pick, Dylan Gambrell and Maxim Letunov to the Senators for Matt Duchene. There’s also the possibility that the Senators would prefer a roster player instead of just prospects, which could make it more tricky. But I could see Tierney or Sorensen being involved in one way or another. Preferably the Sharks would put conditions on the first round pick so that it transforms into a second round pick if Duchene doesn’t resign. Perhaps you find the price high, but remember that you have to give some to get some.

In summary a trade for Matt Duchene is high risk, high reward. If he decides to walk into free agency the trade would be a complete loss, but if he chooses to re-sign the Sharks would have one of the best centre duos in the league with Duchene and Couture while simultaneously being able to keep their best prospect in Josh Norris. Do I expect a Sharks trade for Matt Duchene to happen during the summer? No, not really. Personally I think it’s more likely it’ll happen right before the trade deadline, if at all. Do I want them to make a hard push for him in free agency if they don’t trade for him? Absolutely.

But remember guys and girls, that is all purely speculation. There haven’t been any rumours surrounding the Senators actively shopping Duchene nor have the Sharks been rumoured to target him.

So those were my thoughts on a Sharks trade for Matt Duchene. Perhaps I’ve bitten off more than I can chew with this due to the complexity of the topic, but I hope you enjoyed anyway.

Emil