What decks should we expect at Batstone #1 tonight?

After long months of seemingly identical standard tournaments, Hearthstone will be shaken up. Batstone #1 – organized by 2014 world champion James “Firebat” Kostesich – is a one-day event, featuring top players and streamers and, most importantly, a 13-card ban list on the standard set.

The ban list was determined through community voting (five cards) and the participating pro players (one card per player for a total of eight), and targets many of the cards considered problematic in the current metagame. The swinging Hail Mary Yogg-Saron, the powerful tempo swing of tuskarr totemic, the roulette RNG of barnes and ragnaros the firelord will all be forbidden in the upcoming tournament and the full list consists of:



Yogg-Saron, Hope's End

Tuskarr Totemic

Fiery War Axe

barnes

call of the wild

doomhammer

fandral staghelm

darkshire councilman

ragnaros the firelord

ice block

doomguard

innervate

preparation



Needless to say, that’s a lot of key cards gone from the pool, meaning the decks played tonight will be nothing like the ones used in standard tournaments. A handful of classes are waving goodbye to some of their most powerful and core mechanics, such as Druids’ ramp and Hunters’ strongest finisher.

With that card list in mind, trying to predict what decks will be brought to the tournament is an intriguing task. The immediate question to be asked, thus, is:



Which decks are the strongest?

A couple of decks aren’t really losing anything of value, so their strength is expected to grow in comparison to the former top builds. N’Zoth and Anyfin Paladin have the potential to rule Batstone #1 as no Paladin card has been scratched off and Yogg-Saron is not a minion present in those builds. In addition, two of Paladin’s worst enemies – Freeze Mage and Miracle Rogue – are essentially dead through the bans of ice block and preparation, meaning Paladins can afford to play the long, grinding game without the fear of being one-shot down from 30 health. The aforementioned late-game scenarios are also where Paladins excel above everybody else, their hero power being an unlimited source of threats, which can chip through Warrior’s armor or negate Priest’s healing ability.

Speaking of Warrior, the class remains strong even without fiery war axe. Warriors pulled off a 53% win-rate despite lacking their strongest early-game removal, which is impressive to say the least, and can still operate control builds with King's Defender and Doomsayer filling the gap left by the axe. Ness’ Malchezaar Fatigue Warrior is a good example of what a strong Garrosh deck could look like.

Tempo Mage is also in a fantastic position. The deck only lost Yogg, and that’s just one card out of 30 that’s not even a required win condition. archmage antonidas, additional Cabalist's Tome and even hard removal like polymorph against the expected control meta could easily be added to elevate the deck at Tier 1.

Example Tempo Mages from the AM Summer Championship

Topobablo’s Tempo Mage

Roofotrellen’s Tempo Mage

Abar’s Tempo Mage

Switching sides to the aggressive spectrum, Zoo is notably lacking darkshire councilman and doomguard but that likely won’t hurt it too much. As long as good and cheap minions exist and Warlocks have hand refill on a stick, Zoo will be a menace and Batstone #1 is not an exception. Zoos have been known for using sea giant and leeroy Jenkins as alternative finishers, not to mention how faster Zoo builds exist nowadays, playing lance bearer, argent horserider, demonfire and wrathguard. Without question, the loss of Councilman is a tough one but nothing to the degree of Freeze Mage losing ice block or Miracle losing preparation, for instance.

One class that has the potential to rear its head in this format is Priest, if mostly for which players have been invited. Ness and Kolento are known Priest aficionados and with a lot of the aggro decks gone or slowed down, Anduin is given enough time to resurrect his injured blademasters over and over again, asking questions every turn like “Can you remove this 4/7, and then this 4/7, and then this 4/7”.

In short:

Predicted strong decks: Tempo Mage, N’Zoth Paladin, Anyfin Paladin, Warrior

Wildcard: Resurrect Priest

So, what’s weak then?

There are obvious decks that just aren’t possible anymore, referred to earlier in this article. ice block is a key card for Freeze Mage and its ban means Tempo Mage remains the only stable Mage archetype in existence, unless StrifeCro comes up with some Control build that walks the thin line between living and dying constantly.

The lack of preparation, by the same logic, translates as the death of Miracle Rogue. Despite being neither the draw engine, nor the win condition, Preparation is a necessary card that is essential to the aforementioned draw engine and win condition, by triggering a longer chain of gadgetzan auctioneer draws or building bigger questing adventurers or Edwin vancleefs. Even with Preparation allowed, Rogue is not the most popular deck right now – no player chose it for the AM Summer Championships – so it’s appearance at Batstone #1 is unlikely.

Wrapping up the list of dead decks, here’s to Yogg Druid which has been hit thrice in all of its core places: the ramp in innervate, the tempo swings in fandral staghelm and the comeback mechanic / win condition Yogg-Saron. This affects both the standard Token builds and the MalyYogg Miracle decks, so if Druids want to be a thing tonight, they might have to explore some sort of Beast/Aggro variation. With just four decks allowed, however, it would benefit players not to do that.

The real question at the end of this feature is what’s the state of Shaman and is there a merit to playing it. Aggo Shaman has been slowed down immensely, losing a strong T3 tempo play in Tuskarr Totemic and the best source of late-game sustained damage doomhammer, which alone represents 32 potential damage over two weapons. Consequently, Aggro Shaman might’ve been robbed too much to have a future in the tournament.

The midrange and crusher decks, however, could have a place. Tuskarr Totemic is without a doubt the strongest Shaman card in standard right now and its vital to Aggro Shaman’s success, but a theoretical Midrange Shaman (whose builds rarely run doomhammer to begin with) could be found where the lack of Tuskarr Totemic is mitigated through, say, jeweled scarab which has a high chance of actually finding Tuskarr Totemic without it being included in the deck.

Of course, it’s much more likely that any Shaman decks prepared are Crusher/Concede builds. Ness won the open qualifiers on the back of a N’Zoth Crusher Shaman, which plays neither of Tuskarr Totemic and Doomhammer. In addition, Crusher Shamans are known for creating boards too difficult to deal even for heavy control decks and maximizing the value of earth elemental and ancestral spirit could be the key to success once again.

In short:

Dead decks: Freeze Mage, Miracle Rogue, Yogg Druid, MalyYogg Druid

Weak but potentially viable: Midrange Shaman, Aggro Druid

Very possible: Crusher Shaman

All questions will be answered at 18:00 when Batstone #1 will begin.