Are we looking at the wrong variables?



Tyler Cowen view of the supply side being limited by the lack of low hanging fruit may appear to fit the data and be associated with the observed stagnation and slow growth. The lack of innovative growth may be related to the evolution of the regulator bureaucracy from the EPA, etc. in all advanced countries from the 70's onward effectively killing innovations, except in the "permissionless sectors" of our economy (apps, software, IT, etc.) and not the lack of opportunities for innovation (low hanging fruit).



We live at a time in history when science and technological knowledge is exponentially increasing at about 10% or so per year. The opportunities created by this explosion of knowledge and Information is unbounded as people can reach much higher fruit "standing upon the shoulders of giants." as the tree of knowledge is much larger and growing exponentially faster. It is easy for present day people to view electricity and the IC engine as great economic drivers, while failing to even "see" the present frontiers of knowledge worrying about quantum level interactions, nano-technologies, and the basic chemistry of life. At the time when Maxwell's equations (describes all electromagnetics) were written, most people, including any economists of the time, probably didn't see the significance of electricity.



In the past, brilliant men could be a Renascence Man and know almost everything from economics to electricity, but today you can only see an insignificant part of the whole of human knowledge and opportunity. That does create a situation where small minded bureaucrats kill opportunities they can't comprehend.



Great generalizations, like the above, mean little without an example. With todays knowledge, we know that plants compete in the root zone for resources and some plants exclude weeds by out competing them in the root zone (aka the war zone). Genes from these plants could be transfered to corn and the market for Roundup would disappear. This could be done in a Garage shop with a small amount of VC funding, However, it would take a 100 million dollars and 10 years to get it approved by the regulators, so this fruit of opportunity will be left to rot. This fruit of opportunity is "low hanging" to people standing on the shoulders of giants.



How national accounting systems capture such innovation that would allow no till farming without the extra expense of Roundup resulting in lower food prices, less labor, less fuel, and failure of Monsanto (less capital) as a benefit to humanity instead of a decrease in GDP and total factor productivity is for others far more knowledgeable than me.