After Sergio Aguero returned a deflating 4 point haul in the 1st game of the weekend, things improved significantly, bar the odd disciplinary problem (Sadio Mane, we’re looking at you), as our recommended XV romped home with 71 points, a whopping 32 points above the average score for the gameweek.

Harry Kane (13 points), Marko Arnautovic and Gylfi Sigurdsson (9 each) were the main contributors, whilst our 4 defensive starters all returned clean sheets. With the Premier League returning to its full complement of 10 fixtures this weekend, read on as we analyse the bookmakers’ odds to help you make those all important squad decisions…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Swansea 2.1 48% Tottenham 2.25 44% Man City 2.45 41% Chelsea 2.45 41% West Brom 2.5 40% Newcastle 2.62 38% Watford 2.8 36% Leicester 2.9 34% Southampton 3 33% Liverpool 3.1 32% Stoke 3.25 31% Crystal Palace 3.4 29% Norwich 3.6 28% Sunderland 3.8 26% Everton 4 25% Arsenal 4.2 24% Man Utd 4.8 21% Aston Villa 5 20% West Ham 5.5 18% Bournemouth 6.5 15%

The hosting of toothless Aston Villa, the lowest scorers in the division with 22 goals to their name (6 less than any other side and an average of just 0.7 per game), sees Swansea top the bookies defensive rankings for Gameweek 31 with a 48% chance of a clean sheet. With a respectable 3 shutouts in their last 6 outings at The Liberty, the Swans will be confident of putting another nail in the coffin of a side that have notched just twice in their last 5 games. Bonus point magnet Ashley Williams is selected for our squad, whilst Lukasz Fabianski gets the nod between the sticks.

Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham (44%) rank 2nd for this round of fixtures courtesy of home clash with Bournemouth on Sunday afternoon. Spurs have the best defence in the league (24 goals conceded) and will hope to add to the 6 clean sheets already accrued at White Hart Lane this term, given that Eddie Howe’s men have blanked in 3 of their last 6 road trips, including in 2 of their last 3 visits to the capital. With rotation in the fullback areas still a concern, we stick with the attacking threat (3 goals, 3 assists) of Toby Alderweireld as our choice from the Lillywhites back 4 and double up with fellow centre back Kevin Wimmer.

Premier League big boys (on reputation at least) Manchester City and Chelsea (both 41%), along with West Brom (40%), complete the top 5 defensive teams this time round. City entertain fierce rivals United on Sunday, with the Sky Blues keeping back-to-back clean sheets in the league and having kept the Red Devils at bay in 3 of the last 4 derbies. Bacary Sagna’s raids down the right hold promise and he is our selection from the Citizens rearguard. Guus Hiddink’s men have a London derby of their own to contend with as they welcome West Ham to Stamford Bridge on Saturday. With the Blues conceding exactly 1 goal in each of their last 5 games, and the Hammers only failing to score in 1 of their last 6, the attacking instincts of Branislav Ivanovic may be required if he is to deliver a meaningful points return. In the Midlands, 3 clean sheets in 6 at The Hawthorns mean West Brom will be positive about their fortunes against a Norwich side who have scored just 1 goal in their last 6 away games. Ben Foster satisfies our squad selection requirements here as backup goalkeeper.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Aston Villa (20% – away to Swansea), West Ham (18% – away to Chelsea) and Bournemouth (15% – away to Tottenham) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Harry Kane 1.91 52% Sergio Aguero 2.15 47% Bertrand Traore 2.38 42% Romelu Lukaku 2.4 42% Alberto Paloschi 2.62 38% Odion Ighalo 2.62 38% Jamie Vardy 2.62 38% Olivier Giroud 2.62 38% Dele Alli 2.87 35% Gylfi Sigurdsson 2.88 35% Graziano Pelle 3 33% Aleksandar Mitrovic 3 33% Oscar 3 33% Salomon Rondon 3.1 32% Daniel Sturridge 3.2 31% Yaya Toure 3.25 31% Alexis Sanchez 3.25 31% Jermaine Defoe 3.3 30% Riyad Mahrez 3.5 29% Mame Biram Diouf 3.6 28% Anthony Martial 3.75 27% Roberto Firmino 3.75 27% Patrick Bamford 3.75 27% Marko Arnautovic 3.75 27% Emmanuel Adebayor 3.75 27% Ross Barkley 3.75 27% Georginio Wijnaldum 3.8 26% Benik Afobe 4 25% Dusan Tadic 4 25% Wahbi Khazri 4.33 23% Rudy Gestede 4.33 23% Stephane Sessegnon 4.33 23% Nordin Amrabat 4.33 23% Yannick Bolasie 4.33 23% Emmanuel Emenike 4.33 23% Josh King 4.5 22% Nathan Redmond 4.5 22% Dimitri Payet 4.6 22% Scott Sinclair 5.5 18% Jesse Lingard 6 17%

Tottenham striker Harry Kane tops the bookmakers’ attacking hierarchy this weekend with a 52% chance of finding the back of the net as he welcomes Bournemouth to North London. A brace against Aston Villa last Sunday saw Kane move into the lead in the race for the Golden Boot on 19 goals (tied with Jamie Vardy) and, having also scored a hat trick against the Cherries in the reverse fixture back in October, the England frontman straps on the captain’s armband for our troops this weekend.

Joining Kane up front will be fellow Golden Boot chasers Sergio Aguero (47%) and Romelu Lukaku (42%). Aguero, who scored 3 against United in the league last season, goes into the derby 3 goals behind Kane and Vardy and will certainly fancy his chances with Louis van Gaal’s charges conceding in 5 of their last 6 games away from Old Trafford. Lukaku, meanwhile, trails the England duo by just 1 strike, and goes into his home encounter with Arsenal, who are conceding 2 goals per game recently (8 in 4), having notched 5 times in his last 4 outings.

The 1st midfielder to make our squad for Gameweek 31 is Chelsea’s Bertrand Traore (42%). The Burkina Faso forward, who has 4 goals in his last 6 appearances, despite the majority of them coming from the bench, should replace the suspended Diego Costa up front for the Blues, furnishing Fantasy Football managers with an out-of-position prospect as a result. With penalty duties in his locker, teammate Oscar (33%) joins Traore in our midfield this week.

Joining the Chelsea duo and completing our midfield foursome are Gylfi Sigurdsson (35%) and Yaya Toure (31%). Icelandic playmaker Sigurdsson has been instrumental in Swansea’s upward momentum away from the relegation battle, bagging 7 in 11 since the turn of the year, and faces Championship-bound Aston Villa on Saturday. With the Villains losing 5 on the trot, and conceding over 3 goals per game during that run, the Swans’ set-piece specialist could certainly be in for a profitable afternoon. Ivorian powerhouse Toure will be hoping to add to the 7 goals he has scored this campaign in the aforementioned Manchester derby, with United on the wane defensively (1 clean sheet in 5). Josh King (22%) gains a place on our bench, with his budget friendly price allowing us to splash the cash in other areas. The 24 year old Norwegian has netted in each of his last 2 outings, but faces a tough task this weekend at White Hart Lane.

Other viable options for the midfield positions include Spurs’ unearthed English gem Dele Alli (35%), Chilean livewire Alexis Sanchez (31%), Algerian magician Riyad Mahrez (29%), Liverpool’s form Brazilian Roberto Firmino and Austrian bad boy Marko Arnautovic (both 27%), but they all miss out on our recommended XV due to budget and/or squad selection restraints.

The Gameweek Squad

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Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.