By examining evidence of rainfall in Belize over the past four centuries, British researchers have concluded that hurricane landfalls have gradually moved northward.

That signals an increased threat to the Northeastern U.S. coastline, which typically had experienced only sporadic major hurricanes over the centuries, they said.

But the expansion of swaths of the atmosphere driven by increasing carbon dioxide emissions may make the Northeastern states vulnerable to more - and increasingly powerful - hurricanes, they concluded.

Researchers first reconstructed rain patterns for the western Caribbean dating back 450 years by analyzing the chemical composition of a stalagmite collected from a cave in southern Belize, Central America.

They found clear evidence that hurricane landfalls there had gradually decreased over the centuries. Yet when they compared that evidence to written historical documents for regions just slightly to the North - including Florida and Bermuda - they found the actual number of hurricanes generated in the equatorial Atlantic hadn't declined.

Instead, hurricanes that began in the Cape Verde region were making landfall further to the North, they determined.

The researchers, geologists from Dunham University, cited Hurricane Sandy as a perfect example of the increasing threat posed to the Northeast by hurricanes.

The study's lead author, Dr Lisa Baldini, in the Department of Geography, Durham University, said: "Our research shows that the hurricane risk to the Northeastern coast of the United States is increasing as hurricanes track further north.

"Given the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy it is important that plans are put in place to protect against the effects of similarly destructive storms which could potentially occur more often in the future," said Lisa Baldini, the study's lead author.

The study, published in Scientific Reports, noted that natural changes in ocean temperatures trigger shifts in hurricane paths. But they noted the decrease in Western Caribbean landfalls sped up dramatically just as industrialization took hold.

"Since the 19th Century this shift was largely driven by man-made emissions and if these emissions continue as expected this will result in more frequent and powerful storms affecting the financial and population centres of the Northeastern United States," Baldini said.

Even as the research was published, however, Hurricane Otto set its sights on a Western Caribbean landfall, the National Hurricane Center said. The expected coastal area impacted would likely be in Nicaragua or Costa Rica.

It is the latest hurricane on record to form in that region.

The hurricane poses no threat to the United States.

#Otto is the latest #hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea, eclipsing the record of Martha 1969. More: https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/121ZETjpAf — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 22, 2016

The Belize research was funded by the European Research Council; the National Science Foundation; the Alphawood Foundation; the Schweizer National Fund, Sinergia; and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research.

Kathleen O'Brien may be reached at kobrien@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @OBrienLedger. Find NJ.com on Facebook.