Will 2017 be the year we finally see the E46 M3 value increase significantly? According to a recent Road & Track article, the BMW E46 M3 is on the list to be one of the 10 cars that will “skyrocket” in value. We saw the E30 platform skyrocket in price so that means the E36 and E46, respectively, is next in line! But don’t get too excited.

If you think about why certain cars all of a sudden have a surge in value and if you have a little bit of marketing knowledge, you’ll understand value is triggered by demand. Well, at least it’s a huge part of it. So what causes demand on older cars all of a sudden?

Let’s take a look at the classic example. The MKIV Toyota Supra. Why did demand go up? Well, the production number is one factor and the Hollywood-hit movie The Fast and the Furious was a huge factor. The E46 M3 doesn’t have a production number low enough to spark any positive value forecasting nor does it have a Hollywood-hit movie.

Price Trend

If you take a look at the price trends for the E46 M3, you’ll find it to be generally on the decline according to CarGurus.com. There is a spike for whatever reason on 12/19/16, but to me it just seems like an outlier.

Production Numbers

Okay, what about the production numbers? It’s an M3! It has to be rare! Well, not really. Take a look at the information below via and see the comparison between the E30 and E46. Information via bmwmregistry.com.

BMW E30 M3 Production Data – Standard Models

Production Code Units Year Start Year End Spec AK01 5,187 1986 1989 Europe AK03 5,300 1987 1990 North America AK05 4,585 1986 1989 Europe AK05 1,512 1989 1990 Europe

BMW E46 M3 Production Data – Standard Models

Production Code Units Year Start Year End Spec Gearbox Body BL91 16,038 2000 2006 Europe 6MT Coupe BL91 7,800 2000 2006 Europe SMG Coupe BL92 12,510 2001 2006 Europe 6MT Coupe BL92 5,855 2001 2006 Europe SMG Coupe BL93 26,202 2001 2006 North America 6MT Coupe BL93 10,851 2001 2006 North America SMG Coupe BL95 (CSL) 841 2003 2003 Europe 6MT Coupe BL96 (CSL) 542 2003 2003 Europe 6MT Coupe BR91 4,822 2001 2006 Europe 6MT Convertible BR91 3,039 2001 2006 Europe SMG Convertible BR92 7,234 2001 2006 Europe 6MT Convertible BR92 3,754 2001 2006 Europe SMG Convertible BR93 17,577 2001 2006 North America 6MT Convertible BR93 8,796 2001 2006 North America SMG Convertible

A total of 5,300 E30 M3 models were produced for North America while a total of 63,426 E46 M3 models were produced for North America.

Verdict

We’re gonna compare apples to apples and compare the production numbers only. It took almost 30 years for the E30 M3 to skyrocket in value. At that rate, the E46 M3 will have it’s chance in 2031. Of course, that’s a soft-wool blanket statement, but with the production of the E46 being 12 times as much, I think the blanket is going to stay cold for a while. Maybe if you have a dime-piece sought out trim like an Alpine White with Cinnamon interior and 6MT transmission you might get lucky, but if you’re still optimistic about the general demand going up just hope for the continued owner-abuse of VANOS systems and failed rod bearings to eliminate more E46 M3’s on the road and accelerate the inflation process.

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