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Much remains uncertain about the chaotic events of the past day, including the origins of the plot against the government. But it seems the coup was ill-executed from the beginning, starting with the delivery of its message. All the opposition parties in Turkey’s parliament, despite their loathing of Erdogan, rallied to the cause of the elected government and civilian rule. Most of the main branches of the military and security services remained in Erdogan’s camp.

Now, the crackdown has commenced. Nearly 3,000 military personnel have been arrested, according to a statement from the prime minister. Senior officials, including Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, say the “putsch” was led by a clique within the military outside the chain of command.

“The situation is completely under control,” Yildirim said at a news conference on Saturday. “Our commanders are in charge.”

Sources in the Turkish president’s office point to the secretive Gulen movement, led by an aging Islamic cleric who lives in Pennsylvania, as the main perpetrator. They claim that the leading military officers involved knew they would be sidelined by a purge of Gulenists in the ranks in the coming weeks and had to act fast. The Gulenists have vociferously denied involvement.

What happens next is unclear, but experts are concerned that Turkey’s already troubled democracy is in for a rocky ride.

“There was no good outcome,” said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “If the coup had won, the state will be oppressive. If Erdogan wins, it will still be oppressive, because now there’ll be a witch hunt.”