The numbers game

Champion Data supplied seven key stats that generally determine team success in the AFL. As a simple overview to start with, here's how the 17 premiers ranked on those seven measures, both in the season they won the flag and compared to the other premiers.

Delving into the numbers

Points for and points against are two of footy’s simplest measures, but also two of the most effective. Ultimately football is about kicking more points than your opposition. The mantra that “defence wins premierships” is time honoured, and for good reason. No premiership team this century has won the flag without being in the top five for defence. That is in contrast to attack. While clearly it helps to be able to score freely - 13 of the premiers have ranked in the top two in this category - Sydney in 2005 and the Western Bulldogs in 2016 show that it is possible to fare relatively poorly in attack, yet still succeed.

Essendon averaged more than 130 points a game in 2000, 13 points more than any other premier, while the Hawks of 2015 were the most miserly.

This chart shows that some clubs (Essendon, Geelong) built premierships on huge average winning margins. In contrast, the Swans were the third-worst attacking side in 2005, averaging just 86 points a game, but were helped by having the best defence. It showed in the grand final, as they kept West Coast to just seven goals. Fittingly their flag was sealed with a defensive grab, Leo Barry’s unforgettable pack mark in the dying second.

Vital grab: Leo Barry in the 2005 grand final.

The 2016 Dogs finished 12th for attack, and still only third for defence. Of course they broke all the rules anyway, finishing seventh after the home and away season before going on a barnstorming run through the finals. With their attacking woes, the Dogs’ success was built on territorial dominance. They rank fifth among the 17 premiership teams for inside 50 differential, and second of those teams for contested possession differential, with their manic intensity a hallmark of their game. That they have dropped off in this area in 2017 has been a key reason behind their fall to mediocrity. An effective way to compare between premiers on both for and against is to use a scatter plot. Where you want to be here is in the top right. Clubs there rank highly for both attack and defence. If you’re in the top left or bottom right, you’re good at one and not the other. Bottom left you’re poor at both - well, relative to other premiers that is.

Two Geelong teams appear the best balanced between attack and defence.







Winning the hard ball

Contested possession. What football is all about? Well maybe for some. As already mentioned, the Bulldogs were brilliant in this area. So too were Geelong’s sides of 2007, 2009 and 2011. In all three of those years the Cats ranked top three for contested possession differential, and they take out three of the top seven spots amongst premiers.

West Coast’s 2006 premiership may have been won by just one point over Sydney, but their contested possession differential is the best of any premiership side.

The Brisbane Lions team that went back-to-back-to-back from 2001 to 2003 weren’t quite as strong in this area as the Cats, but they weren’t exactly weak. Renowned for their big bodies, the Lions twice finished fourth for contested possession differential, and were seventh in 2002, a year in which they narrowly beat Collingwood in the grand final. So that accounts for two of the three dynasties of this century, but what of the other? Hawthorn - who won the flag in 2008 and then three years in a row from 2013 to 2015 - did things differently. Contested ball was never their strong point. They actually lost contested ball on average in 2008, finishing 11th in this category in the year they stunned the Cats in the grand final - and were eighth, fifth and ninth in their three-peat seasons. Not terrible, but nothing special. So what was it that made the Hawks great then? Hawthorn’s reputation was built on sublime ball use. Once they got the footy, they made you pay.

Ruthless at cashing in: Matt Suckling celebrates a goal during the 2015 grand final.

Punishing your mistakes

The key stat for the Hawks is points-from-turnover differential. In each of their premiership seasons they ranked either first or second in this area. They also finished in the top two for inside 50 differential in all of their premiership seasons. Perhaps most importantly, the Hawks saved some of their best football for grand final day, with their crushing defeats of Sydney and West Coast in 2014 and 2015 respectively the most telling examples.

This statistic was unavailable for Essendon 2000 and Brisbane 2001.

Also worth noting: Collingwood in 2010. The Magpies took forward pressure to another level with Mick Malthouse’s “box,” and it shows, with the Pies ranked No. 1 of the 17 premiership teams for points from turnover differential.

Brent Macaffer goals during the 2010 grand final replay.

Field position vs making use of it

Some teams - like the Dogs and Geelong in 2011 - built their flag on dominating field position. Others just made sure that when they did get the ball in the forward 50 they scored points. Port Adelaide won the flag in 2004 despite having on average just two more inside 50s than their opponents throughout the season. The higher teams are on this chart, the better they were at getting into the forward 50. Those furthest to the right were most efficient at scoring when there. Again, top right means you are good at both, and you can see Essendon in 2000 were particularly deadly.

The Bombers, Magpies and Cats of ‘07 were good at getting into the 50 and scoring goals once they were there.







See the Bombers fly up, up

When it comes to the data, three teams stand seemingly apart from the pack. The first of those is Essendon 2000. They came within two kicks of a perfect season, winning every game bar an 11-point loss to the Western Bulldogs in round 21. They even barged their way through the finals, beating the Kangaroos in an elimination final by 125 points before winning the grand final by 10 goals over Melbourne.

James Hird, back when he could do no wrong.

Unfortunately Champion Data cannot provide information about scores from turnovers and clearances differential until 2002, but in most categories about which we do have stats, the Bombers are among the best. Of the 17 premiers they ranked first for points scored and inside 50 differential, second for percentage of score inside 50 differential, and third for contested possession differential. They were far and away the best side of the season, and have to be at the pointy end of any discussion about the champion single-season team this century.

Cat power

The other two data standouts are both Geelong teams. The Cats of 2007 placed in the top six of the 17 premiership sides in all the stats in question. Geelong lost just four games that season, and just one after round five, sunk by a late goal against Port Adelaide in round 21. The Cats turned the tables on the Power in devastating fashion when it counted though, winning the grand final over Port by a record 119-points. Geelong didn’t have a noticeable weakness that season, as evidenced by the fact they had no fewer than nine players in the All-Australian team. They also produced the Brownlow medallist (Jimmy Bartel), the Rising Star winner (Joel Selwood) and won the VFL premiership for good measure. This was a special side.

Jimmy Bartel ruffles Gary Ablett's hair, back when Gary Ablett had hair.

The Cats’ 2011 team also rates very highly in all categories. While they didn’t finish atop the ladder, Geelong of that season only dropped three games, and were the only side to beat reigning minor premiers Collingwood - doing so three times - most importantly on grand final day. The Cats’ achievement perhaps deserves more credit because they beat a Pies side that had just completed one of the most extraordinary home and away seasons on record, as well a highly competitive Hawthorn side on their way to great things.

Some things you can’t measure