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July 17th, 2007

I’ve been trying to think about some of the possible repercussions of a U.S. strike on Iran. All the usual ones came to mind: economic collapse, panic in the energy markets, possible nuclear war etc. But I came up with a different scenario. I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere.

I thought that an attack on Iran would give every America-hating insurgent, in every energy producing country, a GO SIGNAL.

Think about it.

Russia. Mexico. Nigeria. Saudi Arabia.

Some of the biggest energy exporters face extremely serious asymmetric warfare threats. (See: Above Ground Factors.)

This is just a guess, but when the United States / Israel attacks Iran, insurgents everywhere might see that as an opportunity to deliver a kill shot to the United States via the energy vector. If the U.S. is stupid enough to shoot itself in the foot like this, lots of energy infrastructure bombers, if they’re smart, would seize that opportunity to magnify America’s problems.

Hugo Chavez might simply refuse to send oil to the U.S. in sympathy with everyone else who hates the U.S., and in solidarity with Iran, which is an ally of Venezuela.

Oh yeah, there’s probably a thousand other weird ways it could go, none of them good.

I’ve seen idiot executives in corporations behave like the Bush administration. They interpret a 2% chance of success as a sure thing. Meanwhile, those of us involved with the actual operations of the enterprise brace for impact, or simply run away before the rusty calliope starts throwing pipes. Psychopaths don’t listen to reason.

If I know these things, sitting here in my underwear, I’m damn sure that analysts somewhere are trying to tell these bozos, “If you try to fire the gimp out of the cannon at such a steep angle, it could knock the main pole out from under the big top.”

Cheney would respond with something like, “Never mind all of that negative, defeatist talk. Let’s focus on that 2% chance of success some more.”

At this point, some puffed up general would begin a presentation on nuclear weapons.

War | Posted in Energy Top Of Page