ST. CATHARINES, ONT.—Faced with declining poll numbers and internal grumbling about a rocky campaign, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper acknowledged for the first time that his political rivals have gained ground and are a serious threat to his re-election bid.

The Star has learned senior advisers on the Conservative campaign are taking a close look at what is not working, including reviewing a new raft of ads, and making changes to the campaign message, now pivoting to attack both the NDP’s Tom Mulcair and the Liberals’ Justin Trudeau at every turn.

Harper said Tuesday he believes he will win the most seats come election day and will win the right to form a Conservative government.

“But the reality is this is a real choice for Canadians, and an NDP government or a Liberal government are real possibilities,” Harper said.

As a result, the Conservative campaign has changed tack. Harper shifted his message in evening rallies warning voters not to test-drive or try out the other parties, saying a ballot choice shouldn’t be viewed as offering a one-term gig, rather as a “choice with lasting consequences for a generation.”

At a campaign rally Tuesday night in St. Catharines, Harper said: “People say let’s try the Liberals, let’s try the NDP, let’s try a change. What kind of change?”

He compared it to buying a lottery ticket.

“You go out and buy a 6/49 ticket and if it doesn’t work out, you throw it away, you get on with your life, but if a national government goes off course as these guys are proposing with runaway spending, taxes and debt, all of its citizens lose and we will lose for a long time.”

But even as he made his case, Harper’s own tone changed. Several verbal stumbles in a stump speech he has made at every partisan rally hinted at an unusually rattled Harper.

Earlier, he’d been forced to defend his campaign manager Jenni Byrne after a CTV report blamed her for a campaign beset by poor vetting — with two GTA candidates dumped Monday for embarrassing behaviour caught on videotape — and a tone-deaf approach to issues like the Syrian refugee crisis.

Sources told the Star there are frayed nerves and lots of griping in the highest levels of the campaign. However, other Conservatives consistently put on a brave face, saying the party is confident of a win on Oct. 19.

Nevertheless, one new advertisement debuted Monday, with the Conservative campaign acknowledging Harper’s weaknesses. It’s not quite the sweater-vest campaign advisers urged Harper to wear in 2008 to soften his image.

The ad posted online on YouTube to promote Harper’s “proven leadership” ends with an older woman saying: “Stephen Harper isn’t perfect, but when it comes to the economy — we can depend on him.”

After a campaign announcement in Mississauga Tuesday morning attended by several GTA candidates, Harper gave a passing nod to the poor poll numbers, including a Nanos poll for CTV and the Globe and Mail that showed his party in third place, saying, “I think that polls will serve to focus the mind.”

But he was clearly annoyed by a question about whether he’d ask for or ever accept Byrne’s resignation given complaints.

“Look, I’m not going to dignify those kinds of stories with a response,” Harper said.

Byrne is said to be upset by the anonymously delivered broadsides that emerged Monday night, and was not seen on the Harper campaign tour nor at headquarters Tuesday, sources said.

Though the campaign still has six weeks to run, the tight polls of recent days have raised questions about the political landscape after election day.

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New Democrat Leader Thomas Mulcair said he wants Canadians to choose his party to form government on Oct. 19, but he remains open to other arrangements.

“My priority is to defeat and replace Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. They have done enough harm as it is, and across the country there is a really strong, positive reaction to the NDP’s message for what we can accomplish together,” Mulcair said Tuesday in Dorval, Que.

Asked whether he would be interested in forming a coalition government, Mulcair said the NDP has supported that in the past as a way to boot out the Conservative government.

“We, of course, have raised that issue any number of times. In 2008, we went so far as to write a formal coalition agreement with the Liberals, but as you know, they turned up their nose on their own signature and seven years later, Stephen Harper is still there,” Mulcair said.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau says Canadians don’t want a coalition government if any of the parties fails to secure a majority on election day.

Trudeau has been cool to the idea of a formal coalition with any of his political rivals if the fall election produces a minority government.

During a stop in Amherst, N.S. Tuesday, he said Canadians don’t want one either.

“We will always be open to working with others,” Trudeau said.

“But the fact is Canadians aren’t interested in formal coalitions. Canadians want a clear government with a strong plan and come Oct. 19, that’s exactly what they’re going to get if they vote for the Liberal party” the Liberal leader said a morning stop.

But Harper is now warning voters that both New Democrats and Liberals promise Canadians a “swampland” of billions in new spending that he says the country cannot afford.

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