Over the past week, weather fanatics across New Jersey have had high hopes that they will wake up Christmas morning to a light blanket of snow on the ground.

With weather guidance models flip-flopping each day, it's still uncertain whether snow will fall on the Garden State on Christmas Day. Some models are projecting light snow in the early-morning hours on Dec. 25, and others are projecting rain.

If the rainy forecast holds up, this will be the eighth straight year that most of New Jersey has not had a white Christmas.

UPDATE (10 a.m. Friday): Computer guidance models are starting to be more consistent, so the odds of getting a white Christmas this year have gotten better -- at least for the northern half of New Jersey. The National Weather Service is now predicting 2 to 3 inches of snow could fall in northwestern sections of New Jersey from late Christmas Eve through early Christmas morning, and 1 to 2 inches of snow could fall in north-central counties like Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Middlesex and western Monmouth. Even New York City could get 1 inch of snow on Christmas morning, although rain could mix with the snow.

Here's the latest snow forecast for New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, as of Friday morning, Dec. 22. (National Weather Service)

So, when was the last white Christmas, you ask?

The last Christmas with 1 inch or more of snow on the ground across most of the state -- either freshly fallen snow or lingering snow from an earlier storm -- was back in 2009, according to climate records from the National Weather Service and New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson, whose office is based at Rutgers University.

The driving force in 2009 was a big storm that dumped nearly 2 feet of snow in southern New Jersey and 10 inches or more in central and northern New Jersey five days before Christmas. When Dec. 25 arrived that year, the ground was still covered with anywhere from 3 inches to 14 inches of snow.

Worth noting

Since New Jersey is packed with 565 towns and has different climate conditions in each region because of the varying terrain, ocean influences and atmospheric flow patterns, people in a few locations experienced a white Christmas more recently than 2009.

On Christmas Day in 2012, a handful of towns in northern and western New Jersey had 1 to 2 inches of snow on the ground, and on Christmas Day in 2013 two climate stations in northwestern New Jersey reported 1 inch of snow, but there was no widespread snow across the state.

Whether those two years can be classified as "white Christmases" for New Jersey is up for debate, but residents in some towns did have conditions that met the National Weather Service's definition of a white Christmas. (One inch or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25.)

Historical probability of a White Christmas. 🎅🎄 pic.twitter.com/ebXgyia4gJ — Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) December 11, 2017

Close calls

During the past 10 years, the Garden State has had several close calls with storms that almost arrived in time for Christmas Day but ended up hitting too early, too late, or when temperatures were too warm to produce snow.

Here's a look at the weather conditions that were reported on each Dec. 25 from 2016 back to 2007 at New Jersey's two major climate sites monitored by the National Weather Service: Newark Liberty International Airport and Atlantic City International Airport.

What you will find is something that's not a surprise to climatologists: A white Christmas is a rare event in New Jersey.

A white Christmas in the Newark region is a rare event. Pictured is a big snowstorm that hit New Jersey's largest city in late December 2000, after Christmas. (Aris Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media)

NEWARK CHRISTMAS STATS

Dec. 25, 2016: No snow

Note: 3.0 inches of snow fell on Dec. 17, but temperatures were in the 40s, 50s and low 60s heading up to Christmas Day. So there was no snow on the ground on Dec. 25.

Dec. 25, 2015: No snow

Note: New Jersey had record-breaking warm temperatures that December, with Newark averaging 13 degrees above normal. Newark got only 0.3 inches of snow the entire month, and it fell on Dec. 28 and Dec. 29. It was 71 degrees on Christmas Eve and 63 on Christmas Day that year.

Dec. 25, 2014: No snow

Note: Newark got a trace of snow on Dec. 20 and a trace on Dec. 21, but no snow on Dec. 25.

Dec. 25, 2013: No snow, but a close call!

Note: Newark had four small snow accumulations in the first three weeks of December 2013, a trace of snow on Christmas Eve and a trace of snow on Dec. 26, but nothing on the ground on Christmas Day.

Dec. 25, 2012: No snow, but a close call!

Note: Newark had a trace of snow on Dec. 22, a trace of snow on Christmas Eve and 0.4 inches of snow on Dec. 26, but no snow on Christmas Day - just 0.02 inches of rain.

Dec. 25, 2011: No snow

Note: Newark had no snow in all of December 2011, with temperatures averaging 6 degrees above normal throughout the month.

Dec. 25, 2010: No snow, but a close call!

Note: Newark had a big snowstorm on Dec. 26 into Dec. 27, with 17.7 inches of snow on Dec. 26 and 6.5 inches of snow on Dec. 27.

Dec. 25, 2009: No fresh snow fell that day, but there were 4 inches of snow on the ground in Newark. So technically, it was a white Christmas!

Note: Records show the snow that was on the ground on Dec. 25 came from a massive snowstorm that hit the region on Dec. 19 into Dec. 20.

Dec. 25, 2008: No snow, but a close call!

Note: Records show Newark had 2 inches of snow on the ground on Christmas Eve, from three small snowfalls earlier in the month - Dec. 19, Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 - but no snow on the ground on Christmas Day in 2008.

Dec. 25, 2007: No snow

Note: Newark had a trace of snow on Dec. 26.

Atlantic City has had only one white Christmas in the past 10 years, but several close calls. (Lori Nichols | NJ Advance Media)

ATLANTIC CITY CHRISTMAS STATS

Dec. 25, 2016: No snow

Note: Only a trace of snow fell in Atlantic City the entire month - a bit on Dec. 15 and a bit on Dec. 17.

Dec. 25, 2015: No snow

Note: Atlantic City received no snow at all in December 2015, an abnormally warm month where the temperature averaged more than 13 degrees above normal.

Dec. 25, 2014: No snow

Note: Only a trace of snow fell on Dec. 8 and 0.4 inches fell on Dec. 11. Atlantic City had no more snow the entire month.

Dec. 25, 2013: No snow, but a close call!

Note: Atlantic City had three minor snow accumulations in the first three weeks of December 2013 - a trace, 2.1 inches and 1.0 inches, but nothing on the ground on Christmas Day. The city had a bit of rain on Dec. 23 and again on Dec. 24, so the moisture was in place but temperatures were too warm to support snow.

Dec. 25, 2012: No snow, but a close call!

Note: Atlantic City had only a trace of snow the entire month - on Dec. 22 and almost a quarter-inch of rain on Dec. 24 and 2.6 inches of rain on Dec. 26. If the temperatures had been colder, the city could have had a white Christmas.

Dec. 25, 2011: No snow

Note: Atlantic City had only a trace of snow in all of December 2011, with temperatures averaging about 6 degrees above normal throughout the month. The only snow was a trace, on Dec. 17.

Dec. 25, 2010: 0.1 inches of snow - very close call!!

Note: Some people would consider 0.1 inches of snow a white Christmas, but it falls short of the weather service's standard of 1.0 inches or more. Also worth noting: Atlantic City had a big snowstorm on Dec. 26 into Dec. 27, with 18.4 inches of snow on Dec. 26 and 1.6 inches of snow and freezing rain as the storm winded down on Dec. 27.

Dec. 25, 2009: No fresh snow fell that day, but there were 5 inches of snow on the ground. So technically, it was a white Christmas in A.C.!

Note: Records show the snow that was on the ground on Christmas came from a massive snowstorm that hit the region on Dec. 19 into Dec. 20. The city got 11.4 inches on the 19th and 0.7 inches on the 20th. Bad news for snow lovers: Heavy rain and mist washed all the remaining snow away the day after Christmas.

Dec. 25, 2008: No snow

Note: Records show Christmas Day was warm that year, with a high of 63 degrees and light rain. Atlantic City had only 0.3 inches of snow the entire month of December, and that was on Dec. 6. A trace of snow fell on Dec. 31.

Dec. 25, 2007: No snow, but a close call!

Note: Atlantic City had almost a third of an inch of rain on Dec. 26, so it was a close call in terms of moisture and timing.

Note: This post was updated on Dec. 19, 2018 to fix a glitch that prevented a photo from loading.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.