Huge fall since start of campaign – but re-allocation of support raises questions about who is being asked

Survation’s latest poll of Labour members’ voting intention in the party’s deputy leadership contest has shown a dramatic fall in the level of support for Establishment favourite Angela Rayner.

While Rayner polled 60% support in an equivalent Survation poll at the beginning of the contest, her numbers had tumbled by 25 points in yesterday’s poll, to just 35% – a loss of 42% of her initial support:

POLL: Labour Deputy Leadership Election



Angela Rayner: 35% (-25%)

Richard Burgon: 23% (+4%)

Rosena Allin-Khan: 17% (+12%)

Ian Murray: 14% (+5%)

Dawn Butler: 10% (+2%)



Via @Survation. — Balance of Power (@BalancePowerUK) February 28, 2020

However, the redistribution of that support raises questions. Second-placed Richard Burdon has picked up 4%, but the robotic Rosena Allin-Khan received a 12-point bump and the dour Blairite Ian Murray gained five points, with Dawn Butler gaining just two.

Given the preponderance of left-wing Labour members – even assuming the post-election surge in numbers was all returning right-wingers – a bigger swing to more inspiring left-wing candidates Burgon and Butler would be expected as Rayner’s left credentials have crumbled over the past couple of weeks.

This may suggest that right-wingers are over-represented in Survation’s samples – and consequently that Burgon and Butler are outperforming the numbers the pollster is giving them.

Certainly Burgon’s popularity has surged on the back of a string of well-received rallies and hustings – and his decision to publicly take on Rayner over her Phillips-like comments about Jeremy Corbyn earlier this week.

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