If the ballot measures giving the city of Boulder the power to create a municipal electricity utility were decided based on Facebook “likes” and yard signs, municipalization wins in a landslide.

The real results, however, will have to wait for a tally of mail-in ballots Tuesday, and that outcome is less certain, both sides say.

Xcel Energy, which faces losing Boulder as a service area, and its allies have spent about $900,000, almost 11 times as much as the supporters of municipalization, according to campaign-finance reports.

The Boulder contest has, however, gone beyond traditional campaign techniques such as phone banks, newspaper ads, mailings and canvassing.

The battle has been fought with YouTube, Internet pop-up ads, podcasts and cable-TV ads cheap enough for grassroots groups to put a 30-second spot on “Monday Night Football.”

“There have been so many ways to get the word out and to get to so many target groups,” said Tom Plant, co-chairman of the Boulder Clean Energy Business Coalition, which supports a municipal utility.

Plant, former head of the Governor’s Energy Office in the administration of then-Gov. Bill Ritter, does a daily podcast.

Boulder voters are being asked to decide on two ballot measures. One would create a utility occupation tax — about $1.20 a month per household — to raise $1.9 million a year to finance the development of a municipal utility.

The second ballot measure gives the city the authority to create an electricity utility and issue bonds to finance it — as long as its reliability and rates are in line with those of Xcel.

The ballot initiative was at first driven by Boulder’s goal to cut its carbon emissions as part of its climate action plan. Man-made carbon emissions have been linked, in scientific studies, to climate change.

Xcel uses coal-fired power plants, a major source of man-made carbon dioxide, to generate about half its electricity.

Municipalization was seen as a way of promoting renewable energy and buttressing local control.

“The goals keep shifting, which tells me something,” said Jerome Davis, the company’s regional vice president of customer and community relations.

A big question is how much it will cost to create a municipal utility.

Consultants hired by the city have put the figure at $200 million or less. Xcel has estimated that it is more than $500 million and possibly as much as $1 billion.

Boulder officials say that if it is too expensive, the city will not pursue a municipal utility and that ballot measures just give them the option of exploring the option.

Xcel, which expects to get 30 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2018, is frustrated because the ballot gives the city a green light not just to explore the option but to create its own utility, Davis said.

“This isn’t just a discussion,” he said. “This is a takeover. They want to take over our business.”

The 46,800 Boulder customers are 3.4 percent of Xcel’s customer base and generate $114 million in annual sales.

While the issue has energized the community, a lot of people appear to be undecided, organizers on both sides said.

“It’s a complicated issue, and I think some people are just taking time,” said David Miller, chairman of the Boulder Smart Energy Coalition — which opposes municipalization over concerns about cost.

The group has received about $275,000 from Xcel.

The coalition has sent out multiple mailings and placed large newspaper ads, Miller said. It has distributed 1,000 yard signs and set up a Facebook page and paid for pop-up ads.

Citizens for Boulder’s Clean Energy Future, the main advocate for a municipal utility, has spent $32,700 but has put 1,500 yard signs into the field, according to Ken Regelson, one of the group’s organizers.

It also has been able to place ads on Comcast cable television for as little as $30 for 30 seconds.

“We are still doing canvassing, literature drops, phone banks, but it is a new world,” Regelson said.

Clean Energy Future also has a Facebook page with 1,113 “likes.” The Smart Energy Coalition’s Facebook page has tallied 457 “likes.”

Mark Jaffe: 303-954-1912 or mjaffe@denverpost.com