Yes, it is true that Romney has won the campaign: compare his polling now and in the summer. And it is true that many Americans I meet seem to be switching furtively from voting for Obama in 2008, to supporting Mitt Romney today. But as we go into the final straight, it is pretty clear that Obama has the momentum. He had a good storm, and if you really want to see what is going to happen, you need to look at where the betting is. Betfair is good at predicting two-horse races (I speak from experience) and at this late stage Obama is pulling away. He is four to one on, while Romney is five to 16 against ; and those figures represent people’s personal financial commitment – about $23 million has been wagered on Betfair alone – rather than the inconsequential opinions they offer to pollsters.