Giancarlo Stanton might get traded before the trade deadline. He doesn’t want to stick around for a full Marlins rebuild, and Jeffrey Loria might be interested in limiting future payroll commitments to increase the value of his franchise, which he’s likely to sell. Seems to me that the Marlins would be worth more with a recognizable star like Stanton than without, but I’m not an economist. There’s a non-zero chance he’s dealt.

He’s also the kind of player the Giants would love to have — young and marketable, with the kind of power that even AT&T Park can’t contain. So this might not surprise you:

News : Teams are calling Marlins on Stanton. Belief is he may be willing to waive no trade clause. Showing most interest : SF Giants — Craig Mish (@CraigMish) July 15, 2017

It’s worth noting a couple things. First, Henry Schulman has talked to someone who says it’s not true. Second, it’s not entirely clear if the Marlins are even remotely interested in trading Stanton. So we’re already in the realm of speculative fiction, and it’s just going to get murkier and murkier from here.

Before we assess the likelihood of a trade, I would like to offer a simple thought exercise: If Giancarlo Stanton were magically granted free agency this offseason, would the Giants consider signing him to a 10-year, $295 million contract this offseason?

I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t.

Would they claim that kind of contract on waivers? Nope. It’s hard to imagine the Giants committing that kind of money, considering they have $114 million already committed for the 2020 season, which is the largest committed future payroll in baseball. It’s not the kind of roster than can absorb a $30 million-per-year player Consider this possible roster in 2020:

Buster Posey (age 33)

Brandon Belt (age 32)

Brandon Crawford (age 33)

Jeff Samardzija (age 35)

Mark Melancon (age 35)

Johnny Cueto (age 34)

Giancarlo Stanton (age 30)

The Giants would have to fill in the other 18 roster spots while spending about $70 million, or about $4 million per player. If all of the above players were still in their 20s and the Giants had been adept at finding everyday players and quality starting pitchers in the minors lately, I could almost see it. As is, how many of those guys will still be playing at a high level? I’ll also bet at least a couple of those players would be hurting the Giants in 2020, not helping them.

The Giants are hosed financially when it comes to a mega-contract like Stanton’s. They have so much invested in the infield (and these numbers don’t include what Joe Panik might get in arbitration), and that’s before you get to a possible Madison Bumgarner extension. If they would possibly commit to a $140 million payroll years before the season occurs, they would do it for Bumgarner first. It’s hard to think of a player who would be less likely for the Giants to absorb, really.

And that’s if they could get him for free. The Giants might respond to “here, take this Giancarlo Stanton, and all we ask for is a positive Yelp review in return,” with “no thanks.” When it comes to actual prospects and young players? It’s nearly impossible to see how that would work out.

The Giants wouldn’t have the prospects to compete with other teams if they needed to. The Giants should be careful with their prospects, considering that younger, pre-arbitration players would ease the burden of that future payroll commitment.

The counter-argument is a good one, and it goes like this: It’s Stanton. Literally Giancarlo Stanton, a baseball titan who is exactly the kind of player the Giants need right now. Don’t worry about future payrolls. Don’t pinch pennies. This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to pounce on an All-Star in the middle of what might be an Hall of Fame career.

You can’t spell Giancarlo Stanton without Giants Carlonton, after all.

The counter to the counter-argument, though, is that Stanton has averaged 476 appearances over his career because of injuries, and this deal would go through his age-37 deal. And that’s if he doesn’t opt out in three years. While he’s a dinger monstrosity who would make the Giants better, that doesn’t have to be the case in a few years, when his body will likely be breaking down more and more.

And if his defense is this rough, when he’s just 27, it’s hard to see him aging gracefully in that department, too.

What I keep coming back to, though, is the salary. If the Giants wouldn’t be interested in giving a double-Zito contract to a single player in free agency, I’m not sure why they would trade for one, even if that player happens to be exactly what they need. Stanton makes a lot of baseball sense. I’m just not sure how much real-life sense he makes for a team that has to be a little nervous about how much money they’ve already committed for future rosters.

It’s a nice thought. But that’s all it will be, I’m guessing. There’s a Giancarlo Stanton rumor, and involves the Giants. The excitement will probably end there.