The old Queens has gone the way of Marie Antoinette.

It was impossible to conclude otherwise after upstart public defender Tiffany Cabán edged Borough President Melinda Katz, the Democratic county organization favorite, on primary night to become the borough's next district attorney. If her lead survives the recount, it makes it virtually certain that Cabán—with her program of sex work decriminalization, non-prosecution of drug and quality-of-life infractions, and a "holistic, trauma-informed approach" instead of incarceration for violent criminals—will succeed law-and-order D.A. Richard Brown, who passed away in May.

The tectonic plates under Queens have been shifting for years, as creative class professionals pour into the borough's western provinces while generational homeowners depart its eastern reaches for Long Island or sunnier climes. Cabán's triumph is arguably another aftershock of the political earthquake that claimed the career of Rep. Joseph Crowley a year ago.

But, picking through the wreckage, clear winners and losers emerge.

WINNERS:

1. Socialists: Not since Mao Zedong's troops crossed the Jinsha River into Tibet have leftist forces inflicted such a series of catastrophic defeats upon an ancient political order. First came Crowley's defeat last year. Then the bridling resistance that fought off a planned Amazon office campus for Long Island City in February. And now Katz's loss. The nucleus of these political revolts is the Democratic Socialists of America, a one-time fringe group that advocates public ownership of many sectors of the economy, and now sets the agenda for more mainstream organizations like the Working Families Party and Make the Road.

Twitter may not be real life, but DSA appears to have translated its fevered social-media engagement into news coverage, endorsements and, finally, votes.

So far, this movement has shaped political rhetoric and even policy without acknowledging its own contradictions. For all its populism, it is only so popular—and for all its emphasis on racial and social justice, its supporters are disproportionately white and educated. Polls show New Yorkers overwhelmingly supported the Amazon project. Cabán's victory, however impressive, was delivered by 39% of the 12% of Queens Democrats who voted. More than half of voters favored more moderate options in Katz and former Judge Gregory Lasak. And the 31-year-old won through strong turnout in the gentrified enclaves on the western end of the borough; working-class and middle-class communities deeper in Queens largely favored the other candidates.

But for now, their army is on the march, and no politician can afford to ignore them.

2. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Cabán's victory has established the freshman representative and DSA member as the undisputed queen of Queens: No elected official in the borough can claim similar sway. In fact, AOC may be the most influential politician in any borough, and possibly the state, given that a string of her preferred candidates also won state and local posts last year. Rumors about her ambitions abound. Will she run for mayor in 2021? Challenge Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer or Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand? Stoke revolution from within the House Democratic conference? Given that Gov. Andrew Cuomo endorsed and raised money for Katz, not even the self-declared "Queens boy" governor can afford to ignore the Bronx-born and Westchester-reared congresswoman.

Not yet 30, Ocasio-Cortez has plenty of time to decide on her next move. Expect Democrats to court her endorsement and borrow her slogans for the foreseeable future.

3. Finance: Eight years after Occupy Wall Street, banks and hedge funds are no longer the left's preferred foil in New York City.

"Real estate—more than finance—has become the great 'enemy of the people,' because it's the best target that politicians have," veteran Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf told Crain's in the run-up to the vote. "It's hard to get people angry at a mutual fund manager, but everybody gets angry at their landlord."

Cabán's fundraising seems to prove this. While democratic socialists pilloried Katz for taking real estate cash, the insurgent's receipt of major donations from multiple Wall Street-linked figures went all but unnoticed. Her campaign collected $30,000 from Goldman Sachs and Fortress Investment Group alumnus Michael Novogratz and $10,000 from Paloma Funds and New China Capital Management founder Donald Sussman. The son of TPG Capital founder David Bonderman and the daughter of Renaissance Technologies' James Simons chipped in $38,505 and $38,000, respectively. Another $10,000 check to Cabán came from David Roberts, senior managing partner of the investment firm Angelo Gordon.

"I spend a lot of my time in criminal-justice reform and she is at the forefront of district attorneys (or would be in her case) who will use the office to help bring about a saner system," Novogratz wrote in a tweet to a Crain's reporter. "What we have now is expensive, inefficient, and totally unfair and inhumane."

If the city's money-movers are willing to embrace social and racial progressivism, it appears they can still wield influence in an increasingly left-wing Democratic Party.

4. Comptroller Scott Stringer: The mild-mannered Manhattanite, with his technocratic title and roots in the old Democratic clubs of the Upper West Side, is an odd fit with the Marx-inflected rhetoric of the DSA and its acolytes. But endorsing Cabán was not the first political gamble to pay off for the city fiduciary: Last year he became one of the first elected officials to back challengers to members of the state Senate's defunct Independent Democratic Conference, which had maintained a power-sharing agreement with the chamber's Republicans. In so doing, he's outflanked more cautious rivals in the 2021 mayoral race and built bridges and even beachheads in the Bronx and Queens. Stringer is not assured of collecting on his investments, as DSA may field its own candidate for Gracie Mansion. But unlike other establishment politicians, the comptroller looks savvy rather than scared, and has gained at least as many new friends as enemies.

5. Low-level offenders: The "broken windows" policing of the 1990s and 2000s is now in shards. A court decision severely curtailed stop-and-frisk near the end of the Bloomberg administration and Mayor Bill de Blasio whittled it down further. Then criminal enforcement of marijuana possession, loitering, public urination, fare evasion and other small infractions was scaled back. The heavy-handed Brown was one of the last figures of the era of crime and punishment. Cabán's accession to his job marks a new era in which even sex workers and violent offenders needn't fear an encounter with the law.

LOSERS

1. Real Estate: The last 12 months for landlords and developers have probably felt more like 12 rounds for an aging fighter. They lost invaluable Democratic allies in Crowley, the IDC and the Republican state Senate majority in 2018, then suffered the imposition of costly new emissions standards and tough rent laws this spring and now the defeat of Katz—a friend since her days chairing the City Council's Committee on Land Use. Not only did cash flow into the borough president's campaign from figures and entities tied to Rudin Management, Related Companies, A&E Real Estate and others, but the brokerage Corcoran Group emailed its employees Monday that a Cabán victory "could severely stunt our business." Yet Katz saw all this once-valuable support weaponized against her. Real Estate Board of New York President John Banks may have planned his exit months ahead of his retirement announcement Wednesday morning, but the timing was apropos coming hours after Katz's defeat. The industry has more fights ahead and few friends to rub its shoulders and dab on Vaseline. In the present dynamic, where New York's swelling population competes for scarce housing near transit hubs, the crowd is not on their side.

2. Rep. Gregory Meeks: In the first test of his clout since he took over the county organization's leadership from Crowley earlier this year, not only did Katz lose, but Meeks failed to deliver high turnout in his crucial Southeastern Queens district—or stop a fair number of his constituents from defecting to Lasak. Perhaps even worse, the machine lost its grip on the courts, the historic redoubt of county power. Longtime Bronx attorney Lumarie Maldonado Cruz trounced the Meeks-backed Wyatt Gibbons in a Queens-wide race for Civil Court judge, earning almost 60% of the vote. Not only has the ballast of the Democratic vote shifted to Ocasio-Cortez's western Queens seat, but Meeks can hardly promise to protect his incumbents in the 2020 elections.

3. Mayor Bill de Blasio: Running for president as a nationally watched fight for district attorney played out in his own hometown, the mayor remained neutral as rivals like Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Brooklyn Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed the insurgent—enhancing their bona fides with progressive voters and leaving de Blasio to appear like a cautious, calculating politician. The mayor may have ridden a wave of liberal sentiment into Gracie Mansion, but he's been chasing the wake of more intrepid figures ever since. He backed Crowley over Ocasio-Cortez in 2018, sat out the heated primary contests for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general and only backed a few of the anti-IDC challengers. His eyes always on national opportunities, he ignores or avoids them at home. And that is one reason he has failed to attain the national prominence he has sought for years, and why his presidential dreams are likely doomed.

4. Bail bondsmen: It's the dealers in get-out-of-jail cards whose business will likely take the biggest hit from Cabán's policies. The candidate promised at her victory party to keep as many people out of detention as possible. Reduced low-level criminal enforcement means fewer low-income people in need of a loan to escape a cell. This may save the city some tax money and boost economic productivity, as fewer work hours are spent behind bars, but it will likely cripple the bond industry.

5. Tabloids: There was a time when the outer boroughs counted on the two papers for guidance in electing their officials. The Daily News and New York Post both endorsed Lasak, who earned enough votes to finish a distant third yet cost Katz the election by splitting the establishment vote.