Roads proposal losing big in latest EPIC-MRA poll

If the election were held today, the proposal to raise Michigan’s sales tax to fix the state’s crumbling roads and bridges, among other things, would go down by a 3-1 margin, according to a new poll.

While the results of the poll by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA represents a huge pothole for Gov. Rick Snyder and other proponents of the bill, supporters of the 1% increase in the sales tax — to 7% from 6% — point to plenty of other proposals that have been way down in the polls in the weeks leading up to an election that ended up passing with significant support.

But they’ll have a long slog to achieve a victory on May 5, according to the poll of 600 people done Saturday through Monday. Some 66% of respondents said they will vote no on the roads proposal, while only 25% said they planned to vote yes. When the people polled learned more about the proposal — including the implications of the 10 laws it would trigger — opposition increased to 70% with only 21% supporting the ballot proposal.

Further complicating matters for supporters and opponents of the measure is that turnout likely will be a key factor, and only 70% of respondents said they were certain to vote. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

“I would be amazed if they were able to turn things around at this point,” said EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn. “After hearing the ballot language and how people responded, there’s a real distrust of the government.”

Indeed, of those voting no, 32% were opposed to the tax increase, 18% didn’t like all the other things getting funded in the proposal and 9% said they distrust the government in general and Snyder, who is one of the biggest proponents of the proposal.

That advocacy is costing Snyder, according the poll. His favorability numbers have dropped since January from 54% to 46%, and his job approval numbers have gone from 50% to 47%.

And the message from Snyder and TV ads touting the proposal that the roads are dangerous and putting lives at risk doesn’t appear to be working.

“The advertising that’s been done has been a reach, and is not believable,” Porn said. “People understand there are potholes. People know there is damage to their cars, but I think they may be overplaying their hand in presenting their case.”

For those supporting the roads proposal, which would raise the state sales tax from 6% to 7% and distribute the money to roads, public education, local government, public transit and help for the working poor, the condition of the roads is the biggest factor for their yes vote. Sixty-two percent said the funding is needed and the roads need to be fixed. Ten percent said increasing funding for education is important.

Roger Martin, spokesman for the Safe Roads Yes coalition, which is supporting the ballot proposal, said polling on ballot proposals — especially for elections other than the primary or general elections — is notoriously unpredictable.

“Those of us who run campaigns for a living have learned that Michigan’s history of polling is full of ballot proposals that have predicted one thing and the opposite has happened on election night,” he said. “We have a full month to go.”

Indeed, the proposal last year to repeal the personal property tax was losing in one poll two weeks before the election by a 69%-31% margin and the ballot proposal passed by a 69%-31% margin.

When a proposal requiring a two-thirds majority vote to raise taxes was floated in 2012, the measure was winning with 53% of the vote six weeks before the election, but lost by a 69%-31% margin.

“Our first phase is about to end and we’ll be shifting to phase two,” Martin said. “What it all comes down to is turnout.”

The pro-Proposal 1 campaign has already done three mailings, three commercials and is beginning to do some robocalling targeting specific groups that support the proposal.

The anti-Proposal 1 campaign, led by the Coalition Against Higher Taxes and Special Interest Deals, is embarking on a more grassroots, person-to-person campaign, said Paul Mitchell, who is leading the coalition.

“In a week, we’ve been at 19 separate events, talking with people,” Mitchell said. “We’re not going to stop — except for the Easter holiday — providing information to voters.”

The group has made two small TV advertising buys to buttress the campaign and is urging voters to tell their legislators to come up with a better plan.

“We need to defeat Proposal 1, but we want the roads fixed and some fiscal responsibility with state tax dollars. On May 6, we can get down to the serious business of just fixing the roads,” Mitchell said.

For information from the groups, go to www.saferoadsyes.com and www.saynotohighertaxes.org.

Contact Kathleen Gray: 517-372-8661 or kgray99@freepress.com

What voters will see on the May 5 ballot

A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION TO INCREASE THE SALES/USE TAX FROM 6% TO 7% TO REPLACE AND SUPPLEMENT REDUCED REVENUE TO THE SCHOOL AID FUND AND LOCAL UNITS OF GOVERNMENT CAUSED BY THE ELIMINATION OF THE SALES/USE TAX ON GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL FOR VEHICLES OPERATING ON PUBLIC ROADS, AND TO GIVE EFFECT TO LAWS THAT PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MONEY FOR ROADS AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION PURPOSES BY INCREASING THE GAS TAX AND VEHICLE REGISTRATION FEES.

The proposed constitutional amendment would:

Eliminate sales/use taxes on gasoline/diesel fuel for vehicles on public roads.

Increase portion of use tax dedicated to School Aid Fund (SAF).

Expand use of SAF to community colleges and career/technical education, and prohibit use for 4-year colleges/universities.

Give effect to laws, including those that: Increase sales/use tax to 7%, as authorized by constitutional amendment; increase gasoline/diesel fuel tax and adjust annually for inflation, increase vehicle registration fees, and dedicate revenue for roads and other transportation purposes; expand competitive bidding and warranties for road projects; increase earned income tax credit.

Should this proposal be adopted? Yes or No.