By Sriram BalasubramanianThe battle lines have been drawn in the Middle East. The ongoing tussle between Iran and Israel raised new heights with the recent terror attacks in India and Thailand involving Israeli diplomats. Since the attack took place in India, the spotlight has been further turned on in India. So what is the issue? Is war an impending scenario? I feel it’s far from it, here’s why.

IssueThe issue is simple. The Iranians feel that they need to have a greater say in global affairs due to their increasing technological might. The historical greatness of the Persian region has given further impetus for them to conquer the world with their technological and ideological powers. This sense of power was moderated during the Khatami regime but it has been rejuvenated in this current regime of Ahmadinejad. On the other hand, you have the Israeli’s who feel that in this process of taking center stage in the Middle East, one of Iran’s main targets would be the Jewish state. In addition, they also fear a full-fledged nuclear warfare in the Middle East if Iran is empowered. The Americans and the West are on Israel’s side while China and Russia are expected to back Iran. India is in a catch 22 situation.

India’s tiesIndia has very good ties with both Iran and Israel. Israel has been a longtime friend of India and is one of the largest arms dealers for India. There has also been significant trade among the countries over the past few decades. Iran, on the other hand, has deep cultural links with India over the centuries. They serve as a good strategic base for India to enter into Afghanistan and also help to even out the threat of Pakistan in the region. More importantly, they supply almost 12% of India’s oil and are a huge energy resource for the country. What should India do?The best solution for India would be to play the waiting game and not take sides. Considering the stakes involved, it might require immaculate diplomacy but that seems to be the need of the hour. The reasons are simple. Firstly, the hype about war is at best a fantasy at this stage. War in the Middle East is not going to break out because the US simply cannot afford it. With this being an election year and with a floundering American economy, Obama cannot afford to even support Israel to go to war. Israel cannot afford to go to war without the support of the Americans since nukes are involved in the battle. Second, from an Iranian perspective, this is more of rhetorical posturing to serve its own electorate. Elections are due in late February in Iran and however non transparent they are, the country needs to whip up the sentiments of its people. Such posturing would make it sound more nationalistic and give itself a more anti West perception which the Iranian electorate loves to adore. In addition, the Iranians are also aware about the situation in Syria. Any war that Iran enters into, has the Syrian equation involved in it. Syria is a major entry point for the West in case a battle begins and as long as Assad’s situation is precarious, it is dangerous for Iran to go to war since they could be invaded (Iraq on the west is easy access for the West). To sum it up, war seems an unlikely option since all major stakeholders are not in a position to go for it now.

The second reason why India should remain neutral is to reinforce our might in the global strategic sphere. The economic might of our country has skyrocketed us to a position of importance in global strategic affairs. It would be courageous for us to ensure our interests are served rather than ape what America wants. China does this all the time and its getting noted. We need to first recognize our own interests and understand that aping the West blindly is not going to further our cause of being a global player. In fact, a neutral stand would also serve as a leveraging point in the negotiating table where we can squeeze the US on the issue of jihadist groups in Pakistan that were responsible for 26/11 in return for cooperation on Iran. This could pressurise the US to take a stronger stand on Pakistan and could be an opportunity for India to utilise this scenario. Other than this, one of the basic reasons to stay neutral is the issue of oil for India.

The third reason why India should remain neutral is on the issue of oil and energy. We are dependent on Iran for oil and it is not an easy ask for India to ease out its dependency in a short span of time. Even if there is a deal worked out with the Saudi’s, it would take some period of time to align the infrastructure requirements. Further, the fact that the Iranians have agreed for a 45 percent trade in the rupee augurs well for India. It would benefit us by boosting our saggy exports since the trade is on the rupee.

In retrospect, the best solution for India now is to wait and watch. Maintaining a neutral stand has its benefits and disadvantages. Unless Iran pulls the plug on a full blown war, I think it’s wise for us to stand on the fence and handle it similar to how we handled the Syrian situation at the United Nations.

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