Want to keep up to date on Welsh politics? Sign up and get political news sent straight to your inbox Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice Invalid Email

It was not “ shy Tories ” who put David Cameron back in Downing St in May but “lazy” Labour supporters who did not turn out to vote, according to a new analysis of the shock 2015 election result by respected polling experts.

Robert Worcester and fellow analysts report that nearly one in 10 people who had intended to vote Labour did not cast a vote in the election which saw the Conservative astonish pundits and secure a majority.

In contrast, “nearly all” people who intended to vote Conservative did vote.

The authors of a new study of the election – Explaining Cameron’s Comeback – also highlight the Tories’ success at taking seats from the Lib Dems and the SNPs’ victory over Labour in Scotland.

Roger Mortimore, Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at King’s College, London, said: “What really happened was that the Conservatives and Labour were in a draw – stalemate. Neither of them landed a punch on each other.

“But at the same time the Conservatives beat the Liberal Democrats and the SNP beat Labour.”

Pointing to the seats the Conservatives took from the Lib Dems, he said: “Those 27 gains are the difference between a hung parliament and the Conservative majority they actually got. That is why we now have a Conservative majority Government.”

Related:

On the SNP gains from Labour, he said: “Those 40 seats are the reason why unless that can be reversed [it] is very hard to see how Labour can get a majority in the UK in the foreseeable future.”

Prof Mortimore described the result in Scotland – where the SNP won 56 of 59 seats – as the “most dramatic change” seen in modern British elections.

Mark Gill, who advises governments on polling research, also gave a grim assessment of Labour’s chances of winning the next election.

He said the two key tasks facing Jeremy Corbyn’s party were to “rebuild in Scotland and take seats from the Conservatives”.

But he added: “The evidence thus far suggests the party is nowhere near achieving either of those two things.”

Describing Labour’s present position, he said: “The most generous way of describing this really is [that Labour is] in no better position than they were in in May 2015.”

'Nasty and divided'

Warning of the danger to Labour of being seen as a divided or “nasty and incapable party”, he said: “One of the key things that has changed in the public’s mind of the image of the Labour party [since] the election is many more people see it as divided. And one of the big problems the Conservatives had post-1992 all the way until David Cameron became prime minister was that they were generally seen as the nasty and divided party.

“Labour are in danger of taking at least one of those tags.”

Commenting on how the Conservatives’ fortunes could change when David Cameron stands down, he said: “All the evidence suggests he has been up until now a boost to the Conservatives. He has been able to appeal to people who would not normally naturally vote Conservative.

“He might not be so popular by the time he comes to stand down and all the history of the Conservative party is one where we are all a little bit surprised two or three years out who they actually choose as their leader.”

He added: “It’s difficult to see Jeremy Corbyn being elected prime minister in 2020. That’s not to say he won’t become prime minister...

“There is no evidence to suggest that Labour are going in the direction they need to take in order to win.”

Read more:

Plaid Cymru failed to increase its number of seats despite party leader Leanne Wood taking part in the televised leaders’ debates.

Prof Mortimore commented that while the debates gave Plaid “massive exposure in the rest of the country” it “wasn’t really new for Welsh voters to see Leanne Wood.”