KINGMAN – The coronavirus outbreak in Mohave County is now expected to peak in the first week of May or later, county Public Health Director Denise Burley told the board of supervisors Monday, April 20.

“I know the curve has been a big topic of discussion with different groups,” she said. “I know they want to know where we are, and several of you have asked me the same questions,” she added, addressing the supervisors.





Burley said county public health epidemiologist Anna Scherzer recommended having “cautionary notes when it comes to curves.”

These are just predictions, Burley said, and things can change very rapidly.

Current models are based on very small amounts of data, she said, adding data of flu numbers show that what happens in Maricopa County doesn’t necessarily happen here.

“(Maricopa County’s) models are important to look at,” Burley said, “but sometimes our influx of flu cases is much different than Maricopa County.”

Scherzer told Burley that often Mohave County is two to four weeks behind Maricopa County, “which puts us a bit further out than I initially anticipated,” Burley said in reference to COVID-19 and previous predictions that placed the local peak around April 27.

But even if we experience a peak, Burley said, we could still experience another one.

“Our emphasis has to be on taking appropriate precautionary measures to protect ourselves from illness as a whole, not only COVID,” she said.

Arizona Department of Health Services is working with the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine to look at the modeling and hopefully the county will get some additional information from there, Burley said.

A later peak could mean a later reopening of the economy.

“I think we are in the process of developing a plan,” Burley said on behalf of her department, “and soon will be able to tell you what reopening would look like.”

The Arizona Governor’s Office emailed the board of supervisors requesting an opinion on the reopening of Mohave County.

While County Manager Mike Hendrix suggested combining the ideas of the supervisors after a consultation with Burley, Supervisor Ron Gould of District 5 said his intention is to pass his opinion directly to the governor’s office.





Deputy County Attorney Ryan Esplin praised that idea as the best way to ensure the supervisors are not breaking the open meeting law by coming up with a consensus without holding a meeting.