Much of the country faces a higher than average bushfires threat because of warm and dry conditions and low rainfall

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Fire authorities across the country are bracing for a challenging bushfire season this summer and are urging Australians to start preparing their homes, properties and evacuation plans early.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre released its seasonal outlook on Wednesday.

It warns Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and parts of Western Australia and South Australia face an above normal potential fire threat because of very warm and dry conditions and below average rainfall.

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“When we go into communities post [fires] large portions of the communities are not well prepared for the fire season and a lot of people express surprise that they were to be impacted by fires,” the centre’s chief executive, Richard Thornton, told reporters in Melbourne.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate monitoring manager, David Jones, said the outlook was grim and the fire threat would be potentially exacerbated by severe drought conditions particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin region.

“It’s not a very good outlook and will certainly be a challenging fire season,” Jones said.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Illustration: Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre

In Victoria, authorities are most worried about Gippsland, which has been struggling with record low rainfall. Some areas are still recovering from fires earlier this year, including Bunyip which lost close to 40 homes. There are also strong concerns about the state’s west where there has been good rainfall that’s increased fuel levels.

“It’s cold and it’s wet at the moment but this is the time we need to be thinking about preparing,” the Emergency Management Victoria commissioner, Andrew Crisp, said. “It’s too late when we’re actually battling a fire.”

He flagged last summer’s successful trial of night-time helicopter fire bombing would continue this year.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A bushfire burns in the Bunyip Sate Forest near the township of Tonimbuk, Victoria, 7 February 2009. Photograph: Andrew Brownbill/AAP

Bruce McDonald from the NSW Rural Fire Service noted his state had been hit with 1,500 fires so far this month and families needed to be proactive about arranging their bushfire survival plans.

“I would equate this to 2013, the conditions we are facing. In 2013 we lost 200 homes one afternoon in the Blue Mountains,” McDonald told reporters. “Preparation is the key. There won’t be a fire truck at every house.”

He said fire crews will have to adapt to low dam levels and high water restrictions, in drought-stricken parts of regional NSW, with “dry firefighting strategies”.

“In some areas we’ve been using water bombers that can get water out of rivers rather than the dams,” McDonald said.

If fire crews are using landowners’ dam water, a NSW scheme will replace it.

The fire season has started early this year in Queensland and is expected to go later than usual. Fires have already come within metres of homes on the Sunshine Coast and Bribie Island has been hit.

The state’s Fire and Emergency Service deputy commissioner, Mark Roche, said the danger zone was from Rockhampton down to the NSW border and out west to the Darling Downs, where there was a shortage of water.

Roche said last year’s early fire season was unprecedented and featured never before seen catastrophic conditions.

Emergency services in Queensland could be pressed on two fronts.

“The luxury we have in Queensland is you can have bushfires in one part of the state and cyclones in another and at times they are at the same time,” Roche said.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Aerial view of the burnt ruins of a house in the town of Marysville, north of Melbourne, 12 February 2009. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

The Tasmania Fire Service acting chief officer, Bruce Byatt, said the state’s east coast was at above average risk of large-scale fires and also he predicted early blazes. He warned holidaymakers to also factor in the bushfire threat when planning trips.

Authorities in South Australia are most concerned about the fire risk to Kangaroo Island and Eyre Peninsula.

In Western Australia, the focus will be on the state’s south as well as around the north-west coast where there’s increased fuel loads following intense rainfall from Cyclone Veronica.

Quick guide Heatwaves and climate change in Australia Show Hide According to the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO, Australia has warmed by 1C since 1910, and temperatures will increase in the future. So how will climate change affect future heatwaves in Australia? The CSIRO and BoM have compiled different models for predicting the outcome of climate change in Australia to produce a guide to how different regions will likely be affected. They found that every part of Australia will continue to experience increases in average temperature, and will have a higher frequency of hot days.

The duration of hot spells will increase in every region. In many areas in the northern half of Australia, the average number of days above 35C could increase by two to three times.

Late in the century, towns such as Darwin, Alice Springs and Broome may experience days with temperatures above 35C for about a third of the year. These higher temperatures will also result in higher evaporation, which will continue to make drought conditions worse.

The ACT is in a second year of drought and fire authorities are worried about dry conditions in high country bushland.

On Wednesday there was a total fire ban in the Northern Territory and fire crews were battling blazes at Dundee Beach, south-west of Darwin, and Lansdowne, near Katherine. A fire ban was also set to be in place on Thursday covering Darwin, Batchelor, Litchfield municipality and Coomalie Shire and the Adelaide River region.

Competition for aerial firefighting aircraft could be intense this year but states and territories are adamant teleconferencing and cooperation efforts will ensure the worst-affected areas are prioritised.