We’re staying in California at the beautiful Pebble Beach resort for yet another multi-course event. This week they will be playing on 3 different courses before a 54-hole cut, then playing on Pebble Beach again for the final round. There will be a smaller cut than normal as only the top 60 and ties will play on Sunday instead of the standard top 70. Getting 3 rounds before the cut makes punting cheap players a bit more of a viable strategy and you’ll want to focus a bit less on cut makers and more on birdie/eagle makers who will score the most DK points. The field is star-studded and deep with talent so players’ salaries will be very different than weeks prior. Don’t get too carried away with week to week changes in salary, remember to relate it to the strength of the field.

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Course 1- Pebble Beach Golf Links

Pebble is a 6,800 yard par 72 but don’t let it’s short yardage fool you into thinking it’s a short player’s course. It has a slope rating of 145 and many holes run along the rocky cliffside near the water. Many holes have insanely large fairways that give a huge boost to the raw bombers with little accuracy, but some holes require extra care to avoid splashing into a double bogey. The par 5s are very tricky including one of the hardest holes on the PGA Tour- hole 14. It has an insanely sloped green and surrounding area which can potentially turn small mistakes into huge frustrations. The oceanside #18 will have the more aggressive players hitting over water twice. On top of all of this the greens are the smallest on the PGA tour so Proximity and Greens in Regulation will be key at this course. Sand Save % may also be key with the desert environment and the greenside bunkers around the small greens. Remember they’ll be playing here twice.

Course 2- Spyglass Hill

The 6,900 yard par 72 Spyglass Hill plays the hardest of the 3 courses and has an even bigger slope rating than Pebble at 148. It starts as a links-style course surrounded by desert then goes deep into the woods. The fairways are narrower and have some sharp dogleg bends. In contrast to Pebble the greens are rather large. It’s one of the hardest courses on the PGA Tour and the more aggressive players could find themselves in real trouble if they end up in the dunes or the woods.

Course 3- Monterey Peninsula

Unlike Spyglass and Pebble, Monterey is a par 71. It’s similar in length at 6,800 yards but a bit less slope rating at 133. Weather- particularly wind- will be key here as it’s not as protected by large trees as the other two courses. It’s sort of similar to Pebble in having large fairways with plenty of water hazards. The greens are really tough- like all of the courses here- so Putting is very important to look at.

High End Plays

Jordan Spieth $12,300

Any time Spieth plays he deserves a long look and I’m definitely okay with spending up on him this week. He’s playing better than anyone and has fantastic course history. Despite the strength of the field he’s still a 6/1 favorite to win and he has the elite putting needed to navigate these greens.

Jason Day $11,800

Matsuyama proved last week that missing a cut the event before isn’t that big of a deal. Given his MC was most likely due to the flu I’m not worried about it at all. Day is the only guy in Spieth’s league right now and his course history is great as well. He led the Tour in Birdie or Better % last year by a significant margin and his elite distance will help him navigate Pebble.

Dustin Johnson $11,400

DJ is the king of this course with 5 top-5 finishes in 8 tries along with a T7. This kind of course history speaks for itself, he’s a core play for me.

Brandt Snedeker $11,100

I know I’ve listed the top 4 guys in salary here but Brandt has won here twice in 3 years so I can’t not mention him- especially given his lights-out current form. Other than his 2 wins his course history is pretty lackluster but when he’s on here, he’s on. He’s an elite putter and his accuracy should keep him out of trouble. I’d say focus on Snedeker and Spieth in cash games with Day and DJ being more for GPP. (Actually DJ in both, c’mon)

Jimmy Walker $10,700

After a win in 2014 Walker broke his streak of 4 straight top 10s with a measly T21. Walker is in crazy good form right now and you should keep using him. Consider him your replacement for Charles Howell III this week as your free space.

J.B. Holmes $9,800

J.B. was absolutely crushing the ball last week averaging 327 off the tee and given the success of bombers in years past he should be primed for plenty of birdies and eagles. He’s fresh off 2 T6 finishes and came in 10th here last year so he makes for a great gpp play.

Kevin Na $9,200

Current. Form. Na is continuing his run from last year as a cut-making monster and is a fantastic cash game play. I’ve noticed Na is very similar to Phil in his ability to get out of tricky situations with creative scrambling and he’s a beast out of the sand. This was one of his rare missed cuts from last year but the 3 years prior he finished T4, T22, and T5 so I’m not terribly worried about it.

Mid-Range Plays

Bill Haas $8,200

Bill hasn’t played here since 2006 but I think this is the kind of event he’d fare well at. He was off to a terrific start to the season until a hiccup at Torrey Pines. A lot of people were on him that week so expect recency bias to lower his ownership percentage in gpp. He’s usually a great winter season player and he’s one of the best players out of the sand. On top of this, his Vegas odds stick out compared to others in his price range by quite a bit.

Russell Knox $8,000

Knox had a very good fall season including a win at the WGC followed by a 2nd place finish at the OHL Classic, but that was a while ago and he may have fallen off of people’s radar by now. He leads the tour in Greens in Regulation and he’s generally a solid cut-maker. Again Vegas backs me up here.

Matt Jones $7,800

Jones is the kind of player I’m looking for in gpps this week. He’s long off the tee, has a high birdie or better %, good Vegas odds, and he’s proven he can go low here with a T7 last year. He’s made 7/8 cuts here but keep him as a gpp play because he’s almost at the bottom of the PGA in Proximity right now which may be a problem at Pebble.

Bryce Molder $7,700

Fresh off a T6 last week, Molder could very well keep it going here. He’s made 6 straight cuts including 3 top 10 finishes and a T12. Good stuff.

William McGirt $7,400

McGirt is having a nice start to the year with 5 top 30 finishes in 6 events. He hits a solid 73% of greens, has great tee to green stats, ranks 34th in proximity, and hits birdies at a 26% rate so he makes for a statistically sound pick at his salary.

Kevin Streelman $7,300

Streelman’s nice little run ended last week with a missed cut and he missed the cut here last year. Despite these facts, his Vegas odds stick out considerably compared to everyone else in his range. Last week we had a very similar situation with Chappell and he ended up missing the cut, but usually it’s a pretty smart move to take guys Vegas has been favoring because, well, money talks.

Chesson Hadley $7,200

He’s been pretty garbage this year-unlike last year-but he’s come T10 here in his only 2 appearances so that’s obviously worth a mention. Worth a sprinkle in gpp.

Sean O’Hair $7,100

O’Hair usually isn’t a cash play but he’s made 7 straight cuts here and usually places upwards of 30th. He’s long off the tee with a solid putter so his success here isn’t too strange. I like him a lot and Vegas certainly agrees.

Jerry Kelly $7,100 (fade)

I get that Kelly has been really solid this season but 5 straight missed cuts should speak for itself here.

Pat Perez $7,000 (fade)

Think of Perez as the opposite of Kelly. Perez has insanely good course history here with 2 straight top-10 finishes. I still wouldn’t touch him because he’s clearly 100% off his game right now. He’s missed 7/8 cuts this year to start the season when usually he’s similar to Walker and Howell III as a guy who plays very well early on.

Value Plays

Lucas Glover $6,600

One missed cut and his salary falls through the floor. Weird considering he’s hitting a whopping 77% of greens and has been driving the ball with both distance and accuracy.

Spencer Levin $6,600

Yes Levin has missed 3 straight cuts but his course history here is pretty nice with a T4, T9, and T14 in his last 6 starts. His Greens in Regulation % is still pretty good so tack him onto the bottom of a few gpps.

Alex Prugh $6,600

T10 here last year and he flashed great tee-to-green skills throughout the 2015 season. He hasn’t played in a while so there may be a rust factor but at this price why not?

Greg Owen $6,500

Another play similar to Chappell last week where the odds compared to pricing stick out like a sore thumb. Owen is near tops in the league in SG: Tee to Green and Greens in Regulation. He has 3 top 10 finishes here and is in fairly decent form so he’ll probably be my top punt play of the week.

Richard H. Lee $6,500

This guy is a mystery, he hasn’t officially played on tour since 2010 but played here as an amateur from ’12-’14 and posted all top 15 finishes in that span. Vegas is not really feeling him with 430/1 odds but it’s worth a shot in gpp.

Steven Bowditch $6,400

Bowditch’s course history here screams gpp play. He either misses the cut or posts a top 20 finish. Bowditch does 2 things very well and both of those things are going to be big here- long driving and sand play. Bowditch has been struggling lately with his driving accuracy so Pebble could be the kind of course to help him turn it around.

Charlie Beljan $5,900

Crazy cheap for a guy who finished T3 here last year but not surprising given he’s 0/8 in cut-making this year. Luckily he’s guaranteed 3 rounds of scoring and he’s the kind of guy who can definitely score. He is one of the longest hitters on tour so he can attack those coveted 8 FP eagles on the par 5s. He makes birdie 20% of the time so even if you know he probably won’t make the cut he still makes for a great salary relief play.