The failed coup in Turkey and the reaction by the Erdogan government has signaled what should be fundamental shift in western foreign policy toward Turkey. Erdogan’s push for a total dictatorship is coming to fruition and the west is paying lip service to its own protests. I will not try to workout on these pages whether or not Erdogan was behind the coup attempt or whether it was a planned action by a group in the military, because the response by Erdogan would have been the same, the death of democracy in Turkey. It is the final reaction of the rest of the world to Erdogan that is most important.





The loss of press freedom in Turkey has been a slow but inexorable march. The coup only hastened the end of a free and open press. The destruction of academia in Turkey is a necessary move by Erdogan to ensure the end of free speech and civilian opposition to the government. The dismantling of the military is the last step in fulfilling Erdogan’s dream of total control. There is nothing new about what is happening. It is not a sudden decision of Erdogan to pursue a more Islamist agenda and abandon democracy. In September of 1994, as Mayor of Istanbul he promised to turn all schools in Islamic “Imam Hatips” and later declared himself a “servant of the Shariah.” He stated “Democracy is like a streetcar, you ride it until you arrive at your destination and then you step off.” It is clear he has arrived at his destination.





Erdogan does not confine his desire for power or influence to Turkey. He has filed hundreds of court cases against critics and journalist outside of Turkey, who he considers have insulted him. The most recent was a call to ban a poem by German comedian Jan Boehmermann that mocked him. Unfortunately, under section 103 of the German criminal code it does make it a crime to insult the head of a foreign government and Erdogan won a partial victory.





Then came the coup and set up a whole new avenue for Erdogan to move down. In this case he is moving against an old friend turned critic, Fethulla Gulen. The Gulen movement has been a thorn in the side of Erdogan for years and he is now claiming that Gulen, with or without US support, was the leader of the coup plot and is demanding his extradition. To make matters worse the US Secretary of State John Kerry said immediately that he looked forward to receiving the request. While there is little doubt that at least some of the coup plotters where followers of Gulen it is highly doubtful that Gulen himself had advanced knowledge of the coup and has come out publicly against it. Facts however have never been a major stumbling block to Erdogan’s thought process.





Immediately following the coup attempt the Turkish government shut down the Incirlik air base and restricted use of Turkish air space which stopped US air support to counter-terrorist activity in Iraq and Syria. Which in other words also ended air support to the Kurds’ fight against ISIS. The concern now for the US is if Erdogan is going to hold Incirlik hostage until the return of Gulen. It appears right now that will be the case.





Based on everything Erdogan has done since the coup and seeing that he will continue to keep the west captive to outdated beliefs, Turkey is democratic and a solid member of NATO, it is time to accept that timelines have shifted. I have in the past cautioned the Kurds against a precipitous move toward independence based on the Wests in general, and the US in particular, penchant to refuse to accept change, especially when it comes to new countries. Now however it may just be time to move forward. The Kurds must offer to the west that which they will lose with Turkey, a stable democratic country within the region and a location for western forces to launch counter-terrorism strikes. While the west continued to see Turkey as an ally the one important piece of the puzzle continued to be missing for the Kurds, western acceptance. Should the Kurds fail to garner support now, the prospects for Kurdistan will become tougher. As Iraq collapses and Syria becomes mired in a never ending war Turkey, under the lead of the new Sultan, will move to reestablish the Ottoman Empire. If this seems farfetched see Russia in Crimea and Ukraine.





Many will argue that the KRG is not a democracy and will support factions in the region to push their own agenda and this will be counterproductive. The US and Europe are currently embroiled in political upheavals of their own which makes it difficult to see what is happening in the Middle East, but the Kurds can present a united front that will force the politicians to see and move. The Kurds have friends in the west who are willing to help but need a strong united Kurdish nationalist movement to point to. This is a small window and will be shut soon. It is time to move.





Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.





The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.