But the Cardinals must first get past the division-rival Seattle Seahawks again, who are the third choice to win the Super Bowl per ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index.

ESPN's NFL Football Power Index (FPI) for 2016 debuted today. A look at who FPI has as favorites for Super Bowl LI: pic.twitter.com/rJSa7yws8i — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 30, 2016

Despite losing running back Marshawn Lynch to retirement, the Seahawks still have an quality roster. Quarterback Russell Wilson caught fire towards the end of the season and is in full control of an offense that averaged the fifth most points per drive (2.32) last season. On defense, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas anchored a secondary that allowed a 79.6 passer rating against (No. 6 in NFL), while the defense as a whole allowed the fewest points per game (17.3) in the NFL.

Using the point spreads released by CG Technology for the first 16 weeks of the season (Week 17 is excluded due to increased uncertainty in those games caused by the upcoming playoffs, so each team is given a 50 percent chance of winning for the purposes of this article) in Pro Football Reference’s win probability formula shows us this is a two-team race, with the Seahawks edging out the Cardinals for division supremacy.

According to Football Outsiders’ estimated wins, the Rams should have won eight games in 2015, one fewer than their actual record (7-9), so it is unlikely they make a significant jump that allows them to contend with either Seattle or Arizona this year. We are more likely to see the Rams kick off their stint in Los Angeles with another losing season — their fifth in a row, all coinciding with the hire of Coach Jeff Fisher.

The San Francisco 49ers won one more game than estimated, so not only would they need to be lucky again — as lucky as a team can be to win five games — they will need one of their two starting quarterback options to vastly improve for new coach Chip Kelly: Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert ranked No. 26 and No. 30, respectively, among 33 passers qualifying to be included n ESPN’s QBR rating. Instead, the 49ers will almost certainly miss the playoffs for the third year in a row.