WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With the economy still suffering from a mild case of recession and the trauma of high energy prices, it's time for the periodic checkup with Dr. Ben.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday to talk about what to do about this sick economy.

The patient is demanding instant relief, but the doctor knows the only cure for what ails the U.S. economy is time. Chairman Ben Bernanke and the rest of the FOMC have done all they can do by slashing overnight lending rates down to 2.0% and by providing unprecedented doses of cheap money to the comatose financial system.

The FOMC is expected to keep its target rate unchanged but to alter its statement to indicate that the weak economy is the chief worry in the short run, while the risks of higher inflation remain elevated.

"The majority of FOMC members is now a bit more concerned about growth and a bit less concerned about inflation," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs.

The patient isn't out of the woods quite yet, the doctor will say. Let's give it time.

Energy eases price concerns

With energy prices coming off of their highs, the Fed can focus more on the economic outlook, which has worsened.

Although the economy did bounce back to a 1.9% growth rate in the second quarter due to the rebate checks and to still-strong exports, there is no evidence that the rebound is sustainable, Hatzius wrote. He expects the economy to stall in the last three months of this year and the first three months of 2009.

"I suspect that the Fed staff has a similar forecast," he said.

The jobs report for July was very weak beneath the surface.

"Employers are aggressively cutting back their employees' hours," Hatzius said. He added that many people are clinging to jobs that are providing them less and less income.

It was only the rebate check from the IRS that kept spending growing in the second quarter, he said.

Income numbers on tap

The slowdown in income growth will be seen in the week's data. On Monday, the Commerce Department will report on income and spending numbers for June. Since we've already seen the quarterly numbers through June, the monthly figures won't attract too much market attention.

Personal incomes are projected to fall about 0.2% in June after a huge 1.9% increase in May, according to a survey of economists conducted by MarketWatch.

Again, the May bump was attributed to the rebates. "Rebate checks continued to be paid out in June, but the total amount distributed declined, pushing down the monthly growth rate," said economists for Barclays Capital.

Consumer spending likely increased 0.4% in nominal terms, but fell slightly in real terms after adjusting for higher prices. Spending on durable goods has fallen, and spending on services is very weak.

The inflation figures in the June spending report won't be pretty, with the surge in food and gas prices. But core prices (which exclude food and energy) should show a modest 0.2% gain in June, which would push the increase in the past year up to 2.2% from 2.0% in May.

The rest of the data schedule is light, with only third-tier indicators on tap.

The Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index is likely to stay below the 50% breakeven line at 48.1%, our survey suggests.

Productivity probably increased at a 2.7% annual rate in the second quarter, a result of modest job cuts and slow output growth. Unit labor costs, a key measurement of inflationary pressures from labor, should rise 1.5%, "subdued by most standards," according to economists for Credit Suisse.