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Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region by Michael Rubin

"The Kurdish drive for independence has the potential to disrupt a Middle Eastern order that has lasted more than a century. And yet, the debate both in the United States and among Kurds continues to focus almost exclusively on questions of morality and justice, rather than on the security, diplomatic, and economic issues that one or more Kurdish states or a federation of Kurdish regions would almost immediately face. Michael Rubin examines the challenges facing the Kurds and US policymakers in a new volume titled, “Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region.”

Internal divisions will affect Kurdish political aspirations. With a population exceeding 25 million, Kurds say they are “the largest people without a nation.” However, Kurds are anything but unified. While Iraqi Kurds probably would embrace independence if given the chance, their leadership has not moved beyond a symbolic endorsement of such a vision. Meanwhile, Kurdish leaders in Turkey and Syria now speak more of confederations rather than outright independence. Despite nominally sharing an ethnic identity, the reality is much more complex, with competing political philosophies, religious diversity, tribalism, and even language undercutting any shared vision for the future or what independence would mean.

Iran, not Turkey, is the biggest impediment to Kurdish independence. Turkey has come around to Iraqi Kurdish autonomy and would most likely seek to co-opt rather than crush a Kurdish state emerging from Iraq. Iran, however, would interpret an independent Kurdish state as a threat to its own territorial integrity. Because of past Kurdish challenges and because Iran is so ethnically diverse, any discussion of Kurdish statehood raises deep suspicion inside Iran.

Creating a state is one thing; having a functioning economy is another. In theory, oil and water should make Kurdistan rich. In reality, rentier states often find themselves at an economic dead end. The Kurds will need foreign investment to diversify and expand their economy, but they face five challenges to sustained foreign investment: their continued embrace of left-of-center, if not Marxist, economic philosophy; corruption; a lack of management experience; a lack of financial infrastructure; and the lack of procedural and substantive legal tradition.