MOSCOW — When he speaks about Ukraine at all these days, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia focuses on worthy subjects like humanitarian aid, distinctly turning down the flame underneath the political speech that erupted with the annexation of Crimea in March.

That shift over the past few weeks has led Kremlin analysts to conclude that Russia has started playing a waiting game with its once closest neighbor. The economic, political and military costs of any abrupt, armed action to keep Ukraine — or even parts of it — in Moscow’s orbit were deemed far too high. Even the sort of indirect support that NATO and the Ukrainian government accuse the Kremlin of providing to the separatists seems to be falling into disfavor.

But that does not mean that Moscow has abandoned its many goals in Ukraine, and it raises the question of whether the West will continue to allow the clock to tick away while Mr. Putin and his lieutenants pursue them.

They want to ensure that Ukraine does not join NATO, and that the country is kept as weak and decentralized as possible. And they would like to extract Russia from the mess while claiming victory in protecting the rights and the lives of millions of Russian-speaking residents in southeastern Ukraine.