Manu Lecomte 1-18-14

Miami and guard Manu Lecomte will face a tougher nonconference schedule this season, though many of its top out-of-league opponents had significant personnel losses after last winter.

(AP Photo | Jason Getz)

With nonconference basketball schedules trickling out, it's time to give each ACC program's decision-making a thorough scrubbing. Who is doing itself a service with the NCAA tournament selection committee, and who is leaving itself vulnerable? Up today is Miami.

Two seasons ago, Miami swept the ACC's regular season and tournament titles. Armed with a team loaded with fifth- and sixth-year seniors, as well as future NBA first-rounder Shane Larkin, Hurricanes coach Jim Larrañaga constructed what became a top-10 nonconference schedule.

Last year, not so much. Of course, Miami's roster was gutted by graduation, and there wasn't a real need to play a harrowing schedule. With a pair of Big 12 transfers (Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez) eligible, the Hurricanes should improve. But will their nonconference schedule reflect that looming progress?

LAST YEAR'S SCHEDULE IMPACT

Miami faced the nation's No. 179 nonconference schedule. It also lost its opener to St. Francis Brooklyn and nearly fell to Georgia Southern in its second game, so if there were faint concerns about the schedule strength of a team made up of freshmen and veteran role players, they dissipated quickly.

Some (but not many) power conference teams have an excuse to schedule cautiously. Miami did last year, and wound up just shy of the national midpoint.

MIAMI'S 2014-15 NONCONFERENCE SCHEDULE Opponent Date 2013-14 RPI 2013-14 W-L at Florida Nov. 17 1 36-3 vs. Providence (Brooklyn) Dec. 22 40 23-12 Wisconsin-Green Bay Dec. 6 58 24-7 Illinois Dec. 2 70 20-15 Eastern Kentucky Dec. 19 97 24-10 vs. Drexel (Charleston Classic) Nov. 20 132 16-14 at Charlotte Nov. 25 151 17-14 College of Charleston Dec. 30 242 14-18 Savannah State Dec. 8 273 12-19 South Alabama Nov. 28 280 11-20 Howard Nov. 14 323 8-25

PLUS ONE OF ... Opponent Date 2013-14 RPI 2013-14 W-L vs. Akron (Charleston Classic) Nov. 21 93 21-13 vs. Southern Cal (Charleston Classic) Nov. 21 176 11-21

PLUS ONE OF ... Opponent Date 2013-14 RPI 2013-14 W-L vs. Penn State (Charleston Classic) Nov. 23 114 16-18 vs. South Carolina (Charleston Classic) Nov. 23 139 14-20 vs. Charlotte (Charleston Classic) Nov. 23 151 17-14 vs. Cornell (Charleston Classic) Nov. 23 334 2-26

More helpful than you'd think: Illinois

A rematch of a 2013 NCAA tournament round of 32 game might also be the sneaky-good contest of this year's ACC/Big Ten Challenge. There are some parallels here, since Illinois took a step back last season while it had transfers sitting out. John Groce's team should be able to move back toward the top half of the Big Ten, and in a best-case scenario this might be a showdown of top-50 teams.

Not as helpful as you'd expect: Providence, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Eastern Kentucky

All three programs had excellent years last season, are extremely well-coached and have solid futures. But each will be hard-pressed to replicate what it did a season ago this winter.

Providence loses Bryce Cotton, who helped carry the depleted Friars to a Big East title. Wisconsin-Green Bay had a credible shot at an at-large bid last year, but its chances of flirting with a place in the top 50 are hurt by the loss of Alec Brown (though Keifer Sykes will remain to create havoc in the Horizon League).

Eastern Kentucky, an absolute joy to watch last season, had a rotation littered with seniors. They could all still be good, but it's doubtful any of them boost opponents' schedule strength as much as last year.

Miami might regret: The bottom third of its nonconference slate

With College of Charleston in flux after Doug Wojcik's firing this summer, the Cougars (who had the talent to be better last season) might slip even more. Toss in three bottom-100 teams from a year ago, and the Hurricanes could have some dead weight dragging them down in the strength of schedule metric.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

Larrañaga and his staff understood how to exploit the RPI formula during their time at George Mason, and they've done the same at Miami. What's happened with this schedule is curious. Miami plays a lot of teams that figure to be at least a little weaker than last year, and also finds itself in an extremely winnable exempt event in November.

The guess here is Miami winds up with an appealing record (perhaps 12-1 or 11-2?) against a schedule that won't do it much harm. The strength of the nonconference slate won't be as good as it looks based on last year's numbers, but it shouldn't be a hindrance, either.

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