The enthalpy of fusion is the heat required to change a substance from a solid to a liquid or a liquid to a gas.

Most people underestimate the enthalpy of fusion with respect to the energy required to increase a substance’s temperature. However, consider the following: the energy required to melt a kilogram of ice is 333 kJ. The same amount of energy could be also be used to heat a kilogram of water from 10°C to 90°C. (Read about how that can be calculated here.)

Despite a constant addition of energy during melting, temperature remains constant, at 0°C. The addition of energy hard to observe during a state change.

I believe money is similar.

Most people’s “monetary state of mind” accepts dollars, rupees, or pesos, each of which are a messy combination of central database money, paper notes, and metal coins. Other people have transitioned to a state of mind that accepts bitcoin: a decentralized database money backed by proof-of-work.

It was difficult for early adopters of bitcoin to change their state of mind; they consumed energy studying software, economics, monetary history, and philosophy. Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin did not change. It did not change when they convinced themselves that bitcoin was not a scam. It did not change when they learned that bitcoin was secure. It did not change when they came to believe that bitcoin is the future of money. The price only changed when people took their dollars/rupees/pesos and traded them for bitcoin. The price increase only occurred after the shift in state of minds.

As bitcoin continues to live, as it continues to grow in value, as more educational and entertaining content is created, and as governments continue to diminish the integrity of flag moneys, the enthalpy of fusion from $/₹/€ to BTC continues to decrease. In other words, it is getting easier for people to change their monetary state of mind.

I suspect that the total energy that humans are transferring to the “monetary batteries” we call ‘money’ is growing steadily and exponentially. Bitcoin is just one type of money. The price of bitcoin increases in spurts as successive cohorts achieve enthalpy of fusion.

I stand by my prediction of a $12 million bitcoin in 2019. We can’t measure the amount of energy going towards changing people’s monetary state of minds. But it is certain that many of us are at the melting point. Once phase change occurs, the change in temperature will be more rapid than most of us estimate.