Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.

But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.

Appearing via videolink, and drinking from a Keep Calm and Carry On mug, Prof Ferguson said: “We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in the epidemic, in that, by the end of the year what proportion of people who died from covid would have died?

“It might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or have underlying conditions so these are considerations.

“Fatalities are probably unlikely to exceed 20,000 with social distancing strategies but it could be substantially lower than that and that’s where real time analysis will be needed.”