Attention is on North Korea to see whether

China will send a high-level official in time for late leader Kim Jong Il’s birthday [February 16th] celebrations scheduled for today and tomorrow.

Following a visit from Beijing’s Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin last year to this event,

high-level diplomatic exchanges between the two countries have ground to a

halt.

The unraveling of the once tightly-knit

relationship, commonly referred to as a blood alliance, began in 2013, when

North Korea conducted its third nuclear test in February. Also, the purge of

Pyongyang’s Jang Song Thaek, who was known for his

close ties with China, further drove a wedge between the two countries.

South Korea’s

Ambassador to China Kwon Young Se recently said in an interview with South

Korean media, “It’s not only

Chinese scholars, but party members that say relations between the North and

China are no longer the same, and that they have become more alienated.”

With this change in ties, Pyongyang has

recently been reaching out to Moscow in lieu of Beijing and speeding up

economic cooperation, as evidenced by the joint development project to connect

North Korea’s port Rajin with Russia’s Khasan currently underway.

Also, Moscow has extended an invitation to

leader Kim Jong Eun for the 70th V-Day event in May to celebrate the country’s victory in World War Two. The leader is said to have given a “positive response” to this, adding weight to

speculation that relations are maturing between the two countries.

In light of these developments, some

analysts believe China will make efforts to counterbalance the ties between

Pyongyang and Moscow by working to improve ties with the North again. The

perfect occasion would be to send a high-level official to Kim Jong Il’s birthday celebration. Rumors that Party secretary Choe Ryong Hae,

widely seen as among the most high-ranking officials in the country, will visit

China fall in line with this current view.

China’s foreign

ministry spokesperson, Hong Lei, in a press release on January 8th, Kim Jong

Eun’s birthday, said, “We hope

to improve the traditional, friendly, cooperative relations with North Korea,

based on the principle of succeeding traditions, aiming for the future, holding

good relations with neighbors, and enhancing cooperation.”

These principles [of 16 characters in

Chinese], previously the foundation for North Korea-China relations,

disappeared last year only to reemerge this year, leading experts to believe

Beijing is signaling that it is willing to improve relations.

However, others caution against such

liberal interpretations. They also assert China would not send an envoy to the

North on Kim Jong Il’s birthday without Pyongyang

making any progress in denuclearization.

“The 16-character principle, which

resurfaced this year, leads me to believe there will be some kind of change

this year,” Lee Tai Hwan, Head of the Regional Studies

Department at The Sejong Institute said in an interview with Daily NK. “But this doesn’t mean that China will

completely reset its relations with the North different from last year.”

“The move [referencing the 16-character

principle] may simply be a gesture to feel out the North,” he added. “There has even been mention of a

Pyongyang-Beijing summit, but that’s an overstatement;

they aren’t likely even send a high-level official to

Kim Jong Il’s birthday events,”

he added.