Corey Anderson (-210) Jan Błachowicz (+190)

Corey Anderson (6'3", 79" reach, 30 years old, Mark Henry)

Things I like:

Corey Anderson’s best attribute is his cardio. I don’t think I've ever seen him get tired.

Every time I watch a Corey Anderson fight the announcers say how hard he works. Anderson seems to be very dedicated to his craft.

Anderson has a college wrestling background and brings that skill set into the octagon.

Anderson is a capable boxer. Earlier in his career I noticed Anderson stringing punches together in combinations. Recently, he likes to use his boxing to get in close to find the clinch against the fence. When his opponent is hurt, he’s accurate with his punches.

Anderson utilizes movement to avoid being hit. Mark Henry guys like a lot of movement, look at Frankie Edgar.

Anderson isn’t a high level jiu jitsu practitioner. When he takes his opponent down, he doesn’t look to take his opponents back. He chooses to wrestle ride them and make them carry his weight. Kamaru Usman is similar. I like this because Anderson is terrible at taking his opponents back. His opponent will always stand up and shake him off. Knowing what you aren’t good at is an important skill.

Things I don’t like:

Corey Anderson does not have a good chin. This is a huge red flag. If you’re a gambler, don’t bet on him, he could lose in a flash at any point. He has been rocked and saved by the bell a weird amount of times.

He can be hit. I’m not in love with Anderson’s striking defense. More specifically, he leaves his hands down when exiting the clinch.

He doesn’t carry much power in his hands. I know he KO’d Johnny Walker but I think that’s an anomaly. I can’t find evidence in any of his recent fights to suggest Corey Anderson carries power.

He doesn’t present much of a kicking threat. He has a one dimensional striking approach, boxing.

He’s heavy on his lead leg, he can be susceptible to calf kicks. The Gian Villante and Ilir Latifi are the best examples of that.

Corey Anderson’s wrestling is not dominant, he found the clinch with Johnny Walker and immediately was turned against the fence.

His movement can be sporadic, he can move for the sake of moving. He cut the angle for Jimi Manuwa which led to him being knocked out.

Jan Blachowicz (6'2", 78" reach, 36 years old, trains in Poland)

I actually did a pretty decent job talking about Jan Blachowicz for his fight with Jacare in Brazil. I encourage you to read it.

Things I like:

Blachowicz’s left hand is his best attribute. His left jab controls distance and helps him fight long. His left hook carries power.

He’s most effective as a counter striker. Jan fights well moving backwards and has excellent timing. I actually like Blachowicz’s technique more moving backwards.

Blachowicz’s left kick from the southpaw stance is very capable of ending the fight. From the southpaw stance his body kick is aimed at your liver. If Jan connects with your head it’s lights out. Jan also carries power smashing both of your calves.

Blachowicz is very hard to be taken down from the clinch against the fence. Jacare tried and failed and Rockhold tried and failed.

Blachowicz doesn’t get enough credit for being so big. Blachowicz is a big light heavyweight and carries big light heavyweight power.

Jan has worked on his takedown defense since his debut in the UFC and he now has very good takedown defense.

On the ground, specifically off of his back, Blachowicz is a legit black belt in jiu jitsu. He’s really good at throwing up arm bars and triangles.

Blachowicz has a very good chin. I don’t think he’s ever been knocked out. In the Thiago Santos fight he lost by stoppage but didn’t lose consciousness. The guy got clipped by Thiago in round 3, no shame in that.

Blachowicz switches stances throughout the fight. This gives his opponent another look to prepare for.

Things I don’t like:

Cardio. These fighters have fought before. Jan lost because he gassed out after 3 minutes. I watched every one of his fights to see if he made an improvement. I believe he has but Jan’s cardio is a big issue heading into this fight.

Blachowicz likes to fight moving backwards. He’s very good at it because his timing on counterpunches is excellent, but fighting backwards is tiring. Muhammad Ali ran miles backwards because it was harder.

Because Blachowicz likes to fight backwards he’s susceptible to being clinched against the fence. Corey Anderson is interested in that position.

When Blachowicz has his opponent hurt, his instincts are jiu jitsu submissions. Blachowicz is a legit black belt but sometimes when you have your opponent hurt, finishing with strikes is the better route.

Blachowicz’s right hand can be looping when he is the aggressor. His counter right hand is straight and pure, but Blachowicz will throw a looping right that isn’t effective.

Blachowicz is a mutant on the ground. For a guy who is so good on the ground he doesn’t make much of an effort to take the fight there. If Blachowicz mixed in some takedown attempts it gives his opponent something else to worry about and gives him an opportunity to use his black belt.

Prediction

The poster says “Anderson Blachowitz 2". What I saw in the first fight was Blachowicz winning the first 3 minutes of the fight and preoceeding to gas out. Anderson spent the next 12 minutes putting a hurt on Blachowitz. That was Blachowitz’s 2nd fight in the UFC and 1st fight in America. He’s talked about the importance of acclimatizing himself to different environments because he travels from so far away (Poland). I have seen Jan pace himself and last in 5-round fights. 5-rounds in Brazil with Jacare Souza is not an easy fight and Blachowicz finished that 5th round throwing good punches at Jacare. Blachowicz has prepared for 2, 5-round fights but Anderson’s cardio is a very real threat for Jan. After watching that 1st fight I didn’t think Blachowitz had a chance in this rematch. I have seen an evolution to Blachowitz’s game that says his cardio is good enough to compete with Corey Anderson in America.

I like to analyze the strength/weakness relationships between fighters. The 2nd strength/weakness relationship that stands out like a Neon sign in the dead of night is Jan’s power and Corey’s chin. Corey Anderson has been hurt and saved by the bell a weird amount of times. Shogun rocked him and he was saved by the bell, OSP rocked him and he was saved by the bell in the 1st round before being finished with a head kick in the 3rd round, Giane Vilante KO’d him in round 3, Jimi Manuwa KO’d him in round 1, Glover might’ve caught him, and Ilir latifi rocked him. This is a trend, Corey Anderson gets hurt in fights. It might not be a “weak chin” but Jan Blachowicz is not the guy you want to fight when you have a habit of being hurt by strikes.

Corey Anderson does not have power in his hands, he will not hurt Jan on the feet. He KO’d Johnny Walker and people think he’s got power. What’s that Stockton Proverb?…“He’s selling you wolf tickets, folks.” There’s no evidence Corey Anderson is a power threat on his feet beyond the Johnny Walker fight.

Corey Anderson’s wrestling isn’t good enough to take Blachowicz to the ground. He clinched with Johnny Walker and Johnny Walker promptly reversed it. I don’t see how Blachowicz gets taken down in this fight. He will be clinched against the fence because he likes to counter and fight backwards, but there’s no evidence Corey Anderson is going to dictate this fight with his wrestling. And I’ll tell you another thing, if Jan is taken down, he’s really good at throwing up triangles and arm bars. Jan’s a black belt in jiu jitsu, and Corey isn’t good at jiu jitsu. I don’t see Corey’s wrestling being effective in this fight.

We are looking at a stand up kick boxing match with loads of clinching against the fence. Corey Anderson will be doing a lot of movement on the outside, but when he closes the distance Jan’s a real threat to counter punch him. Anderson’s cardio is a very real threat to Jan in this fight, but I kinda think Jan is going to have a lot of success on the feet and could put Anderson down with a left high kick.

Betting

Jan Blachowicz (+190) seems silly to me. It seems like people watched the 1st fight and figured the same thing will happen. Jan has done enough to show his cardio will allow him to compete with Corey for 5 rounds and Blachowicz is the better fighter. I also cannot ignore that Jan Blachowicz carries a ton of power and Corey Anderson is hurt a lot.

Jan Blachowicz Wins (+190)

Jan Blachowicz Wins by Knockout (+500)

Michel Pereira (-165) Diego Sanchez (+145)

Michel Pereira (6'1", 73" reach, 26 years old, Brazil)

I saw Michel Pereira in UFC Rochester. He was profusely crying for the entirety of his walk to the octagon. I’m not sure what the referee is supposed to do when he points to the fighter and says, “Are you ready?” and the dude is profusely crying. One thing I want to make very clear, Pereira is not a joke. He will do backflips, rolling thunders, and will dance his way to the octagon but he is not a joke. He KO’d Danny Roberts that night in Rochester, I can’t believe he’s only 26 years old, but he’s not a joke.

Things I like:

Michel Pereira is the biggest 170 lbs fighter I have ever seen. Size matters in MMA and Pereira has it.

Pereira features a stabbing front kick. This kick hurt Danny Roberts to the body.

Pereira has a nice flying knee and uses it often. One of the reasons he uses the flying knee so well is because it’s a deterrent for his opponent to wrestle.

Pereira has a lot of power in everything he throws but his counter right hand was on display in Rochester.

The last time Pereira walked to the octagon he did a choreographed dance with his coaches. His acrobatic routine inside of the octagon is choreographed too. You will see him kick off the octagon fence looking for a superman punch, but what he’s really looking to do it run at his opponent with speed, stop right before he gets to his opponent hoping his opponent will freeze up so he can deliver a KO flying knee. Honestly, it’s a good technique.

Things I don’t like:

Cardio. Pereira has shown he has about 3 minutes of fight in him. The next 12 minutes, he’s a severely diminished fighter.

His rolling thunder move is useless.

He will do a backflip at some point and that will be useless.

Pereira wastes a lot of energy dancing before the fight starts. This guy is entertaining, but he wastes a lot of energy.

I took a deep dive on this guy before his fight with “Boondock” Connelly. Watching the Duško Todorović fight in Serbia our boy Pereira may have actually taken a dive. He probably realized Duško Todorović was going to give him a tough fight after his initial burst of energy and figured it wasn’t worth the pay check. I don’t blame him, but what happens if times get tough against Diego Sanchez?

Diego Sanchez (5'10", 72" reach, 38 years old, trains by himself)

I love diego Sanchez, he’s the Ultimate Fighter Season 1 winner. When it comes to fighting, only Diego Sanchez can light Diego Sanchez’s path. I don’t even think Diego has cornermen anymore, in his last fight I believe he brought hit life coach to the octagon. The man walked to the octagon repeatedly chanting the word “Yes.” People think Pereira is nuts for doing backflips in the octagon, I think Diego is going to counter by doing cartwheels. I’m so excited for this fight.

Things I like:

Diego has that crazy gene where you don’t get tired, don’t feel pain, and never give up. You will need to remove Diego from his consciousness to stop Diego from fighting. I can’t stress this enough, he was literally foaming at the mouth moments before his last fight.

Diego has a black belt in jiu jitsu under Saulo Ribeiro. He also has a background in wrestling. Diego is at his best when he’s using his wrestling and jiu jitsu to maul his opponent into fatigue.

Things I don’t like:

Diego is the Ultimate Fighter Season 1 winner. He is an OG in the fight game, he’s beaten Nick Diaz. If you want to watch a good fight, watch Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida. The problem is, when you fight for that long, your ability to be separated from your consciousness becomes easier and easier. Diego’s ability to take a punch just isn’t there anymore.

Diego is at his best when he’s on the ground winning grappling exchanges. In his fight with Craig White, he was nearly knocked out on multiple occasions from upkicks. I’m pretty sure he went out and came back in that fight. His chin isn’t there anymore and upkicks are a very real threat to him.

Diego gets hit a lot. He gives up size and reach at 170 lbs and straight 1–2 combinations down the middle are a real problem for Diego.

Watch Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida, Diego LOVES fighting. He’s loves it too much. He’s always willing to engage in wild striking exchanges. More often than not he will be separated from his consciousness in those exchanges.

Prediction

I always try to analyse strength weakness relationships when trying to predict a fight. There are 2 that are evident. Michel Pereira is a very large 170 lbs fighter, I wouldn’t be surprised if he missed weight. Pereira brings acrobatic antics to the octagon but don’t be fooled, he hits like a truck. Diego will not be able to take a clean right hand from Pereira. Inversely, Pereira has terrible cardio and Diego will never get tired. But, Diego will need to have success with his wrestling to survive the 1st round before his cardio advantage can take effect. Pereira features a very nice flying knee that is designed to KO an opponent that shoots on him. Having said that, Pereira likes to move backwards to set up his acrobatic moves. “Boondock” Connelly took advantage of that fact to clinch on to a single leg while Pereira was moving backwards. Diego will be a problem for Pereira if he clinches on a single leg. Another thing Pereira likes to do is ground his opponent and back flip on top of his opponent. Yes, you read that correct. If Pereira thinks he can shoot a double on Diego, there is a good chance he will be swept and 0% chance Diego will be backflipped on.

I love everything about this fight, if you have a buddy who watches fights here and there, tell them to tune in for this one. The most likely scenario is Michel Pereira KO’s Diego Sanchez in the 1st round. But, I’ll tell you what, if Diego is still fighting at the 2 minute mark of round 1, this thing is going to get exciting.

Betting

I said in my UFC Vancouver blog, I will never bet on Michel Pereira as a favorite. I like him as a UFC fighter, he brings entertainment, but his style is not conducive to winning. Diego Sanchez isn’t really a finisher. Diego’s game revolves around finding top position and delivering relentless pressure with ground and pound. His goal is making you fatigued. Michel Pereira has already quit. I’m pretty sure he took a dive against Duško Todorović in Serbia when he realized he was going to be in a tough fight. He then went to Korea and fought 2 portly Korean dudes who had no business fighting. This is where he went viral doing silly stuff like jumping off the turnbuckle on to his opponent. My point is, if this fight goes Diego Sanchez’s way, Diego is going to be on top of Pereira hitting him like a banshee. If he gassed out against “Boondock” Connelly, Diego will finish him in the 3rd round. The prop for Diego Sanchez winning in round 3 is (+2000), you’re probably going to lose, but that’s a good bet.

Diego Sanchez Wins in Round 3 (+2000)

Montana De La Rosa (-170) Mara Romero Borella (+150)

Mara Romero Borella (5'6", 67" reach, 33 years old, American Top Team)

Ms. Borella has been suspended from athletic competition for 64 years by the Italian Sports commission. Apparently, she got mixed up with slangin’ dope over in Italy and got caught. Thankfully, she’s in America now. As long as she complies with USADA guidelines…She can fight.

Things I like:

Her top jiu jitsu game looks awesome. She keeps her body tight with her opponent, space is waste, and systematically works to better positions until she chokes her opponent out. This is her best attribute.

She is pretty good at finding the body lock to take her opponent down. She can slip a punch and find the body lock and also find the body lock from the clinch.

When she doesn’t ground her opponent she can find the thai clinch and send a knee up to her opponent’s face efficiently.

She will counter a right kick with a right hand punch.

She throws a calf kick when it’s there.

She manages striking distance well. She isn’t caught often with punches from her opponent.

Things I don’t like:

In her last two fights she has significantly slowed down. She looks to have a cardio issue. When she fatigues her cage fighting abilities significantly diminish.

She needs to find the body lock to take her opponent to the ground. I haven’t seen a successful double leg shot or single leg shot.

She is a one dimensional striker. She's a boxer and relies on her right hand. Tyron Woodley and Claudia Gadelha are one dimensional but have right hands that can dictate a fight. Her right hand doesn’t dictate a fight.

When she fatigues she’s a fighter that doesn’t present an offensive threat and is there to be hit/finished.

Montana De La Rosa (5'7", 68" reach, 24 years old, Genesis BJJ)

Montana De La Rosa’s husband is Mark De La Rosa. He’s a UFC flyweight also fighting on this card. Kind of an interesting dynamic, I believe they are the first husband and wife combination to fight on the same UFC fight card.

Things I like:

Montana is very good at jiu jitsu. Her husband and her train at Genesis BJJ in Texas. She’s very capable of ending the fight by submission.

Montana has a background in wrestling. She uses her wrestling to bring the fight to where she wants it, on the ground.

I like that she is young. This is the age where you improve, and she needs to improve her striking.

Things I don’t like:

I don’t like her striking. She seems like a grappler who is learning to strike and hasn’t become a striking threat yet in the octagon. She struggled to outbox Rachael Ostovich with a 5" reach advantage.

Rachael Ostovich and Andrea Lee hit her with big punches. Her striking defense isn’t stellar either.

She doesn’t use many kicks, her striking is one dimensional.

Prediction

On the feet this is a 50/50 fight. Neither girl has formidable striking. Both girls will be looking for opportunities to take the fight to the ground. Borella is a little more physically imposing and has a strong positional top game. She will be looking to find that body lock from the clinch. De La Rosa is better at jiu jitsu and is more of a submission threat on the ground, she will also be looking to take this fight to the ground. De La Rosa has a little better cardio, but Borella trains at ATT, the best gym in the world. I would imagine De La Rosa wins a decision here. She is better at jiu jitsu and that could be the difference in this fight. But, let me say this, De La Rosa’s husband is fighting and will most likely lose in his fight earlier in the night. Imagine the mindfuck if Mark De La Rosa is KO’d 2 hours before she's supposed to make the scariest walk in the world. Imagine if the person you loved, worked so hard for something and just went out and failed in front of 30,000 people. Now imagine that same situation but the person you love also got knocked out right after they failed. She’d be more rattled than Israel Adesanya is right now.

Betting

I wouldn’t bet De La Rosa here. If you wanted to take a shot at De La Rosa winning in round 3 because she has the better cardio, I wouldn’t blame you. If I was forced to pick a side, I think I’d take the Italian at +145. She might force a stand up fight with her wrestling and may win. When I heard Darren Till got drunk and stole a taxi my initial thought was, “that’s a man that believes in himself.” Hunter S. Thompson said,

“The Edge…There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.”

I’ll tell ya what, like it or not, it takes takes some moxy to traffic dope over in Italy. When push comes to shove, the Italian girl has a little edge to her, I’d take her if all things were equal.

Pass

Unfortunately, I only had time to research 3 fights this week. The Fight Guy took The Fight Girl Rumba dancing on Valentine’s Day instead of researching Dequan Townsend vs. Devin Clark. Shame on me.

Devin Clark Dequan Townsend

Devin Clark

Will be posting more fight breakdowns shortly