Labor Day traditionally marks the beginning of the most intense phase of campaigning in election years. This holiday is also a good time to review the state of play in races for federal offices in odd-numbered years. Though new candidates could emerge at any time before Iowa’s March 2020 filing deadline–Patty Judge was a late arrival to the Democratic U.S. Senate field in 2016–it’s more typical for federal candidates here to kick off their campaigns by the end of summer the year before the election.

Thanks to Iowa’s non-partisan redistricting system, all four U.S. House races here could be competitive in 2020, and our Senate race is on the map–in contrast to 2016, when Senator Chuck Grassley’s re-election was almost a foregone conclusion.



U.S. SENATE

Senator Joni Ernst is favored to win a second term. All other things being equal, Iowans tend to re-elect their incumbents. The last time Iowans voted out a U.S. senator was in 1984, when Tom Harkin defeated Roger Jepsen.

Largely sympathetic news coverage also works in Ernst’s favor. No Iowa-based media organization has a correspondent on the ground in Washington since years before Ernst was elected in 2014. She has followed Grassley’s playbook for influencing reporting on her activities. As a result, Iowans rarely hear about potentially unpopular Senate votes or anything Ernst is up to, other than stories her office pushes out through news releases, conference calls with reporters, and 99-county tour stops.

National election forecasters differ about how long the odds are for Democrats challenging Ernst. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the IA-Sen race as “lean Republican,” while the Cook Political Report see it as a “likely Republican” hold.

Even so, this cycle will probably be the best opportunity for Democrats to defeat Ernst. The last three U.S. senators from Iowa to lose their re-election bids (Democrat Dick Clark in 1978, Democrat John Culver in 1980, and Jepsen in 1984) were all completing their first six-year term. Ernst has been a loyal foot soldier to President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have hurt Iowa’s economy.

Four Democrats are seeking the Senate nomination, and at at least one other is considering the race. Unlike the 2016 field, which included a three-time statewide election winner in Judge, none of the Democrats running against Ernst have held elective office before. None has high name recognition statewide.

Theresa Greenfield has the most support within the Democratic establishment and allied interest groups. Her individual supporters include:

U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who recently dropped out of the presidential race, has also endorsed Greenfield.

Greenfield is campaigning as a “farm kid with farm values” and frequently highlights her opposition to Trump’s trade war. She also has promised to fight for Social Security, which helped her make ends meet as a widow raising two young children.

Kimberly Graham was the first Democrat to declare her Senate candidacy. A first-time candidate, she is the only person in the field to back single-payer health care reform (Medicare for All) , the Green New Deal, free tuition at state colleges, and ending the electoral college. CORRECTION: Graham told Bleeding Heartland she is for a “universal, single-payer healthcare system” but doesn’t support “Medicare for All” because “Medicare reimbursement rates are currently insufficient. Also, our new system needs to cover more than Medicare currently does.” Graham is campaigning as an “unapologetic progressive” who can win with the backing of a “grassroots, people first movement.”

A few weeks ago, the National Republican Senatorial Committee took out a billboard featuring Graham on a major Des Moines street. Though the message was critical, the unstated goal was to elevate Graham’s profile and boost her in the Democratic primary by bashing her as “TOO LIBERAL” for Iowa. Like similar billboards in other states, the image featured Graham’s photo next to those of U.S. Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.

Eddie Mauro was the second Democrat to join the Senate field. He unsuccessfully challenged a Democratic state lawmaker in 2016 and finished second to Cindy Axne in the 2018 primary to represent the third Congressional district. High-profile endorsers of Mauro’s Senate candidacy include State Representatives Ako Abdul-Samad and Charlie McConkey. Greenfield, Mauro, and Graham have all advocated for stronger gun safety legislation, but only Mauro and Graham attended a recent Senate town hall organized by March for Our Lives. Mauro also speaks often of the need to fight climate change.

Retired Admiral Michael Franken declared his candidacy last week. He is the only Democratic contender who doesn’t live in Polk County, having grown up in Sioux County and moved to Sioux City upon retiring from the U.S. Navy. His first campaign video highlighted his opposition to invading Iraq in 2002, a sign he will “go against the grain in Washington to do what’s right for Iowa.”

In a September 1 telephone interview, Franken told Bleeding Heartland he isn’t worried about the late start, because he has many months to meet voters and get his message out. He added that his campaign “surpassed” their initial fundraising goal, and his initial conversations with local party leaders “have been going exceedingly well.” Franken plans to roll out a list of prominent endorsers soon.

The DSCC discouraged other Iowa Democrats from running for Senate. Greenfield’s opponents have expressed confidence that they can convince voters they would be the best opponent to face Ernst. After the DSCC endorsed Greenfield in June, Mauro said in a statement, “Democrats in Iowa want a spirited primary about the issues that affect their healthcare, jobs, their children’s education and the climate chaos that imperils our farms and communities. […] Voters deserve a United States Senator who has a real record of taking action and leading on progressive issues and who can defeat Joni Ernst, and we don’t need DC dictating to us.” Graham recently tweeted, “The establishment may discount this campaign, but I intend to harness grassroots people power and prove them wrong.” Franken commented on Twitter, “Iowa is first on deck to choose the president of the United States. We can choose our own senator.”

Republicans have a slight statewide advantage in terms of voter registration, but the largest group of Iowa voters has no party affiliation. It’s too early to guess whether prevailing national sentiment will favor Ernst or her Democratic challenger next fall.

IA-01

This district covering much of northeast Iowa, including the large cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Dubuque, will be among the top-targeted U.S. House races in the country. Outside groups spent nearly $4 million to influence the outcome in IA-01 last cycle, and the 2020 race will likely be even more costly.

I concur with the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball that this race looks like a toss-up. Some counties in northeast Iowa saw the largest swings in the country from support for Barack Obama in 2012 to support for Trump four years later. Collectively, the IA-01 counties favored Obama by 56.2 percent to 42.5 percent for Mitt Romney, but delivered 48.7 percent of the 2016 vote to Trump, compared to 45.2 percent for Hillary Clinton.

The latest official figures indicate the 20 counties in this district contain 161,221 active registered Democrats, 139,392 Republicans, and 193,371 no-party voters.

Abby Finkenauer is the second-youngest woman ever elected to Congress, having beaten two-term GOP incumbent Rod Blum last November. Click on any county on this interactive map to view the total votes and percentages for Finkenauer, Blum, Governor Kim Reynolds, and her Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell. A table showing the same county-level figures for Finkenauer and Blum is available here.