The midterm elections will not be decided by polls in June.

Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Chuck Schumer on Election Night 2006. Citation: Getty Images

A common tendency of liberals is to worry. Liberals fear that every political fight will end in loss or betrayal — election night 2016 or Bill Clinton-endorsed welfare reform. Democratic representatives are spineless and ready to capitulate at a moment’s notice, and polls suggesting favorable outcomes are frequently wrong. Nearly every election and political showdown is viewed through this lens, and the 2018 midterm election is no different.

For months, liberals have glommed onto every possible negative news story to explain why Democrats may not win control of the House in November 2018. They wrote and shared stories about the tendency of millennials not to vote. They noted the power of negative partisanship, implying that Donald Trump’s voters would be enthusiastic because they wanted to defeat their opponents. Some worried about California’s two-tiered primary system locking out Democratic candidates — until it didn’t. Perhaps the most common source of Democrat worries has been the narrowing of their lead in the generic ballot, a type of poll about whom voters would like to see take charge of the House. While that tightening has also shifted in recent weeks, the Democratic advantage in the generic ballot is currently lower than it has been in earlier elections with strong Democratic victories.

What is the point of worrying so much about the November elections, and should the generic ballot be a real source of consternation?

Liberal anxiety about historic elections is not new. Consider the 2006 midterm elections. Democrats might reasonably have been optimistic. They were facing an unpopular president, George W. Bush, after the disastrous response to Hurricane Katrina and in the unfavorable position of his second midterm, a “six-year itch” election that has historically turned against two-term Presidents’ parties. But here is how Slate’s election tracker summarized the situation on the morning of the election: “The contest to control the U.S. Senate may well come down to a photo finish, although the Democrats now face the tough task of sweeping all four remaining tossup races to win.” Five days before that election, a Salon writer feared that it might be stolen from the Democrats through manipulation of electronic voting machines. Several other writers worried about the possibility of Republicans outdoing Democrats at get-out-the-vote efforts and microtargeting, all possibly leading to a Democratic loss. Despite all of these worries, the Democrats swept the 2006 election, capturing five Senate seats, 31 House seats, and control of both houses of Congress.

There are numerous reasons for Democratic skepticism in the run-up to any election. While demographics may be swinging in their direction, Democrats do have a turnout problem in both midterm and general elections. “The Democratic Wave May Depend on Millennials Becoming Unusually Motivated to Vote,” predicted the headline of a New York article by Ed Kilgore. Election anxiety may motivate disaffected or apathetic voters who will stay at home if they think that their candidate will win regardless. Such messaging may be more necessary in generally low-turnout midterm elections.

But constantly focusing on the prospects of defeat may have the opposite effect of depressing voter turnout. Democrats often mock Republicans for their certainty of victory, most famously Karl Rove on election night in 2012. But confidence clearly does not depress turnout in the case of Republicans, who frequently turn out a larger percentage of their base than Democrats. Even though they are sometimes more confident their team will win, Republicans still want to be a part of that team by voting.

Democrats need to be vigilant, continuing get-out-the-vote efforts and pushing back against Republican messaging. But they also need to be realistic about their chances. The Democrats only need to gain about 25 seats to win back the House, and the party in opposition has captured at least 25 seats in 15 of the past 27 midterm elections. Victory will be supported by both historical precedent and the hard work of campaigning, volunteering, and going to vote. Worrying about the generic ballot will win liberals nothing.