With the backing of the presidents and chancellors, Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott made a big bet at the start of the 2010s.

Scott wagered the conference’s present and future on the value of independence, eschewing a partner for the Pac-12 Networks and establishing coterminous expiration dates for all media contracts.

The Tier One deals with Fox and ESPN … the Pac-12 Networks’ deals with Comcast and others — they would all expire at the same time.

In the spring of 2024, the rights to every Pac-12 football and men’s basketball game will be available on the open market, to whatever linear or digital media entity offers the best deal.

The strategy has been criticized repeatedly over the years — in particular, the rejection of a partner for the Pac-12 Networks, which has resulted in unexpectedly limited reach and low revenue.

But Scott has maintained throughout that his approach would be proven correct over the long haul, that full ownership of the Pac-12 Networks and coterminous expiration of the rights — all of it placed on the negotiating table together — would result in a jackpot for the conference.

The end game remains TBD.

Nobody knows exactly how the media landscape and market for live sports will unfold three or four years from now.

Nobody knows which new entities will join the fray or which legacy companies will still have the interest.

Scott’s optimism has been reported frequently, both here and elsewhere.

“By the time our rights come up,” he told the Hotline last summer, “we are predicting that not only will streaming services be important bidders for our rights, but there (are) going to be other players — some of the technology companies, and others that we can’t even name today, are going to be bidding for our rights.”

But we cannot (and should not) wholly ignore the other potential outcome:

That Scott’s strategy will backfire, leaving the Pac-12 at a momentous disadvantage in media reach and revenue compared to its peers — a hole so deep that it threatens the conference’s long-term Power Five status.

Were we to game out a scenario that could lead to a DEFCON One situation for the conference, the first step in the sequence would look something like this:

ESPN goes all in with the SEC.

And that, as we learned recently, is exactly what’s happening.

Five days before Christmas, the SportsBusiness Journal reported that CBS would walk away from the SEC ‘Game of the Week,’ paving the way for the property to move to ESPN.

CBS has been paying $55 million per year to the SEC.

The real value of the package is believed to be in excess of $300 million per year.

Yep, $300 million for about 15 games.

The SEC made it clear to CBS that it would explore other opportunities — namely, ESPN — when the contract expires after the 2023 season.

Whether CBS ends the contract prior to the expiration date isn’t known (at least publicly) at this time, but by the fall of 2024, if not sooner, the SEC will have one broadcast partner: ESPN.

If you thought the most influential network in college sports was SEC-heavy now, just wait.

The financial implications for the Pac-12 are obvious:

The SEC currently distributes approximately $44 million annually to each school.

If we estimate $325 million annually for the SEC ‘Game of the Week’ package, the net gain for the conference (over the current CBS deal) is $270 million.

Or an additional $19 million per school per year.

That would push the SEC’s annual campus distributions to about $63 million — more than the Big Ten’s current Brinks truck delivery ($52 million per school) and approximately double what the Pac-12 currently sends home to each of its 12 members.

And there’s this: The Big Ten’s Tier One deals with Fox and ESPN expire in 2023, one year before the Pac-12’s rights are up.

We should expect that $52 million per-school figure in the Big Ten to increase substantially.

In other words:

Even if the Pac-12 were to receive a whopping 50 percent annual increase in media rights from its next deal(s), it would still lag far behind the SEC and Big Ten in annual take-home pay.

That money is used for facilities, for student-athlete welfare services, for coaching staff salaries and to manipulate non-conference schedules (i.e., buy games) to create the best chance for success.

(The Hotline sketched this all out in the spring, by the way.)

Given the sequence of upcoming negotiations, it’s not unreasonable to wonder how much cash ESPN and Fox would have available for the Pac-12 after the mega-deals with the SEC and Big Ten.

But the DEFCON One situation for the Pac-12 isn’t limited to a potential cash squeeze.

Because the SEC isn’t moving to ESPN just for the money.

Nope, the SEC understands the value of exposure — of providing its greatest export with access to all Disney-owned media outlets.

And you had best believe Disney will make whatever adjustments are necessary once it owns every last shred of SEC football.

The conference already has a Tier One deal with ESPN, and the SEC Network is owned by ESPN.

Add the ‘Game of the Week’ package, and the SEC and ESPN — which means the SEC and Disney — will be one in the same.

Expect to see SEC football all over ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU and ABC.

Expect to see kickoffs across all the viable broadcast windows, from 12 p.m. Eastern through 9 p.m. Eastern (which is 8 p.m. on some SEC campuses).

Expect to see more than one SEC game on ABC — yep, doubleheaders on broadcast TV.

(Heck, we might even see SEC-theme rides at the Disney parks, like Geaux-cart races or maybe the Houndstooth Hatterhorn.)

Disney isn’t spending $300+ million to acquire a single game each week because it wants that game.

It’s envisioning a 12-hour, multi-network, linear-and-streaming, everywhere-you-turn blast every Saturday for 15 Saturdays, plus whatever it can leverage from the land of ‘It Just Means More’ for the remaining 350 days.

And that’s a problem for the other conferences.

If the SEC gobbles up more ESPN and ABC broadcast windows during prime Eastern/Central viewing hours, there are fewer opportunities for the Pac-12.

When Scott takes his football inventory to the open market and asks ESPN for a bid, the answer just might be: Sorry, we’re booked up every afternoon and evening, but there are plenty of 10 p.m. Eastern options for you.

In that case, the Pac-12 could turn to Fox and inquire about the mid-day windows on FOX and FS1 that it occasionally occupies under the current contracts.

(Or about a few slots on Big Noon kickoff at 9 a.m. Pacific.)

Take another step in our hypothetical exercise, and here’s where the Pac-12’s strategy could backfire:

What if the SEC/Disney death-do-them-part vows suck up so much money and oxygen that a recalibration unfolds across the Power Five media world?

What if it forces a doubling down of partnerships?

We can envision the pairings:

*** ESPN would allocate remaining resources to the ACC, because it has a Tier One deal with the conference and owns the ACC Network.

*** ESPN might also move arm-in-arm with the Big 12, because it has a Tier One deal with the conference and owns the Longhorn Network and just signed a football/basketball streaming agreement with the Big 12.

“We appreciate the continued collaboration with our friends at the Big 12 Conference and their commitment to innovation,” Burke Magnus, ESPN executive vice president, said at the time.

“This enhancement to our rights agreement reflects an ongoing desire to give Big 12 fans access to their favorite teams and hundreds of more contests, while embracing the power of technology and the expanded nature of sports consumption with ESPN+.”

When ESPN (reportedly) went to the Pac-12 last fall to cut a deal that would deepen the partnership, the conference took a hard pass.

It wanted to remain unaffiliated for the 2023-24 negotiating window.

*** As for the Big Ten, well, that one’s easy:

Fox has a Tier One deal with the conference and has bet Big Noon on the conference and owns a majority stake in the Big Ten Network.

There is only one conference whose partnership with ESPN and/or Fox runs no deeper than its Tier One deal or no longer than 2024.

One conference that has bet entirely on itself.

If ESPN’s all-in with the SEC limits available cash and broadcast windows and prompts Fox to counterpunch by going all-in with the Big Ten, only one conference is untethered.

Suddenly, the Pac-12’s strategy that independence would bring leverage unfolds in reverse: Independence would bring isolation.

Even in that scenario, you might argue, there would be options beyond Fox and ESPN.

The conference could partner with Warner or NBC or CBS, with Amazon or Apple, with Facebook or Netflix, even with DAZN — a barrage of options might exist.

Except the new media giants, especially Amazon, have been “professional tire kickers” with regards to sports rights, as one source explained.

Even if Apple showed real interest in the Pac-12 — something more than ‘preliminary talks‘ — the premium football games would have to be sub-licensed to a mainstream outlet like ESPN or Fox.

And that, of course, would require those networks to devote resources (money and broadcast windows) to the conference.

But on a broader scale, imagine a college football world in which the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC are foundational pieces of the ESPN and Fox content plans (linear, streaming, morning, noon and evening).

And imagine the Pac-12 at its own table with Turner or Apple or Amazon.

Think the three-hour time difference is a problem now?

Think the Time Zone issue undercuts income and eyeballs … that it makes everything just a wee bit more challenging.”

If the Pac-12 isn’t a key piece of the ESPN and Fox football packages, the conference might as well be on Hawaiian Time.

At least, that’s our view of it.

Admittedly, we might be wrong — we could very well be all wrong.

Maybe the Pac-12 media strategy will prove as shrewd and lucrative as Larry Scott believes.

Maybe the SEC/ESPN partnership isn’t the revenue-and-reach double-whammy that it initially seems.

Maybe the gathering clouds aren’t as dark as they appear.

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