Despite Positive Verdict, Sudbury Trial Hurts Liberals

Toronto, October 26th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 946 Ontario voters, more than half (BTM2: 51%) say they haven’t paying close attention to the Sudbury by-election trial, with almost one-sixth (14%) saying they hadn’t even heard of the trial.

More than a third (TOP2: 36%) said that they were following the trial closely, with two in ten (21%) saying that they were following it as closely as possible.

Respondents most likely to say they were following the trial closely (TOP2) include those aged 55-64 (41%) or 65+ (44+), males (41%), the most wealthy (42%), with a post graduate degree (39%), living in Toronto (46%) or the Northeast (46%), and supporting the NDP (42%) or Green (39%).

Respondents most likely to say they weren’t following the trial closely (BTM2) include those aged 45-54 (56%), females (55%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (57%) or $80,000-$100,000 (56%), with a college/university degree (55%), living in the Southwest (60%), and supporting the PCs (53%), Liberal (51%), or Green Party (52%).





Almost half less likely to vote Liberal because of the trial

When asked how the trial would change the likelihood of a Liberal vote next election, almost four in ten (BTM2: 39%) said they were less likely to vote Liberal, with a third (32%) saying they were much less likely.

A third (33%) said it wouldn’t change their likelihood of voting Liberal, while one in ten (11%) say they do not know.

One-sixth (TOP2: 16%) said the trial made them more likely to vote Liberal in the next election.

Respondents most likely to say that they were less likely (BTM2) to vote Liberal in the next election include those aged 35-44 (46%) or 65+ (43%), males (45%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (46%), $60,000-$80,000 (44%), or $80,000-$100,000 (44%), with some college/university (46%), living in the 905 (42%) or the Southwest (45%), and supporting the PCs (62%).

Of those that followed the trial as closely as possible, almost half (49%) say they are less likely to vote Liberal.

Respondents most likely to say they were more likely (TOP2) to vote Liberal in the next election include those aged 45-54 (19%) or 65+ (20%), females (19%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (20%) or $60,000-$80,000 (22%), with a college/university (17%) or post-graduate degree (20%), living in Toronto (26%), and supporting the Liberals (40%).

Of those that followed the trial as closely as possible, more than a quarter (27%) say they are less likely to vote Liberal.

Perhaps one thing heartening for the Liberals is that few Liberal supporters (7%) are less likely to vote Liberal because of the trial, while four in ten (40%) said that they are more likely to vote Liberal, and more than four in ten (43%) said their voting intention hadn’t changed in response to the trial.





Few think the trial will have a positive effect on the Liberals in the next election

Despite the best possible outcome for the Ontario Liberals, few (TOP2: 6%) see the trial as having a positive affect on their election chances, with almost half (BTM2: 47%) saying it will hurt their chances. (16%) say they do not know.

Almost a third (31%) say it will not alter their election prospects in any way.

Respondents most likely to say that the trial will be a positive for the Liberals include those earning $60,000-$80,000 (10%), with a post-graduate degree (12%), living in Toronto (15%), and supporting the Liberals (14%).

Of those that followed the trial as closely as possible, just about one-sixth (15%) said the result would be positive.

Respondents most likely to say that the trial will be a negative for the Liberals include those aged 35-44 (52%) or 55-64 (52%), males (53%), the least wealthy (50%), or earning $40,000-$60,000 (50%), $80,000-$100,000 (49%), or the most wealthy (52%), with some college/university (57%), living in the 905 (50%) or the Northeast (52%), and supporting the PCs (64%).

Of those that followed the trial as closely as possible, almost two-thirds (63%) say the trial will have a negative effect on Liberal re-election chances.

Liberal supporters are far more likely than supporters of other parties to say that the result would be positive, with almost one-sixth (14%) saying it will buoy Liberal re-election chances, while more than four in ten (45%) said it will have no effect at all. Still, almost a quarter (22%) say that the trial will effect the Liberals chances negatively.





“The Ontario Liberals could not have asked for a better outcome from the Sudbury trial, but what’s clear from the data is that, overall, the result doesn’t matter much,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The damage to the Liberals’ brand may already be done, and the longer the story stays in the news cycle, the worse it will likely be for them.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.