A majority of Australians polled in the latest Guardian Essential survey said a leadership change within the Liberal party would make no difference to their vote at the next federal election.



Asked whether a leadership change would make them more or less likely to vote for the Liberal party, 18% of the Guardian Essential sample said they would be more likely to vote for the government at the next election, 13% said less likely, and 54% said it would make no difference.

Among Coalition voters, 29% said they would be more inclined to vote for the government with another leader, 16% said less likely, and 46% said it would make no difference.

The new survey of 1,836 voters also confirmed the Turnbull government was closing out the torrid 2017 political year trailing Labor by 10 points, with the opposition ahead on the two-party preferred measure 55% to 45% – meaning the ALP would easily win any election held today.

The new poll comes as the Turnbull government pushed through what is expected to be the final sitting week for the year, with parliamentary debate over same-sex marriage and new citizenship declarations from MPs dominating proceedings.

Malcolm Turnbull has attempted to use Barnaby Joyce’s victory in the weekend byelection in New England to stabilise the government’s fortunes, and the government is also continuing to pursue the strife-prone Labor senator Sam Dastyari about his dealings with Chinese business leaders, targeting him in the parliament – although Labor is attempting to return fire.

While the prime minister entered the final sitting week batting off leadership speculation, the new poll suggests Turnbull remains the top choice as Liberal leader, although his support has dropped 4% since August, and the foreign minister, Julie Bishop is only just behind the prime minister on a ranking of six contenders.

While Turnbull attracted 21% support and Bishop 19%, 15% of the sample nominated “someone else” other than the list they were given – which was Turnbull, Bishop, Tony Abbott, Christopher Pyne, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton – while 27% of the sample, the highest percentage, replied “don’t know” to the question.

Abbott, the former prime minister, who says he will only return to the Liberal party leadership if he is drafted, was favoured by 10% of the sample. Dutton, a favourite of up-and-coming conservatives, was supported by 4% and Morrison and Pyne by 2% each.

Turnbull was also the clear choice of Coalition voters, with 40% preferring him as party leader compared to 20% for Bishop and 13% for Abbott.

Given a clique in the National party has been engaged in open warfare with the Liberals and with Turnbull over the past couple of weeks as Joyce has campaigned to hold his electorate of New England, voters were asked this week whether the Liberal and National parties should continue in Coalition, orbecome more independent of each other.

In the wake of the Liberal National party’s disappointing result in the recent Queensland state election, some Nationals have been talking openly about more assertive product differentiation from the Liberals. But the poll sample was split – with 38% thinking the Liberal and National parties should continue to work together and 34% thinking they should become more independent of each other.

The view among Coalition voters was much clearer – 73% thought the parties should continue together, and 13% believed they should separate.

Given the knife-edged result in the recent Queensland poll, with voters evidently intent on lodging a substantial protest vote despite the risk of returning a minority government, and given the finely balanced parliaments in Canberra in 2010 and 2016, voters were asked for their views on which type of government they preferred.

Over half of the sample (54%) said they preferred a majority government, while 25% would prefer a government with more minor parties where no single party had a majority.

The views were skewed by voting intentions. A clear majority of Coalition voters (69%) favoured a majority government, while 48% of Greens voters preferred a government where no single party had a majority.

Voters also took a dim view of politicians resigning from their party and then continuing to sit in parliament on the crossbench, with most (51%) arguing that politicians who resigned from their party should be forced to resign from parliament.

Only 24% thought defectors should be allowed to continue in parliament.

Voters were also asked this week about sexism. A majority of respondents believed there was a lot or some sexism in the media (64%), politics (60%), advertising (60%), workplaces (57%) and sport (56%).

Women were more likely than men to think there was a lot or some sexism in all areas – but especially in workplaces (women 67%, men 46%) and politics (70% to 49%).

There have been small recorded differences in the figures since the questions were asked last January. Sexism in workplaces has dropped 4%, media has risen 6%, sport fallen 4% and schools has gone down 8%.

There is, however, a more significant change in the differences between men and women on some issues. On sexism in the workplace, the gap between perceptions of men and women increased from 12% to 21%.