Wild Predictions for the 2017 Cubs

Why be reserved when you can be outlandish?

Photo by Jim Schabacker via Flickr

One of the greatest things about being a fan of the Chicago Cubs, especially in the Joe Maddon era, is that anything can happen. Cubs fans have learned to expect the unexpected.

In 2015, nobody expected the Cubs to make the National League Championship Series. A great deal of the Cubs’ success in Maddon’s first season at the helm was due to unusual managerial tactics. Among those was Maddon inserting the starting pitcher into the eighth spot of the batting order.

Another was replacing long-time starting shortstop Starlin Castro with rookie Addison Russell in the middle of the season. In fact, it wasn’t just a replacement. They literally switched positions. Castro would contribute to the team’s surprise Wild Card berth and upset of the rival St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series as a second baseman, the same position Russell played regularly upon being called up to the big leagues that season.

In many senses, Maddon played 2016 much more conventionally. The pitcher actually went back to hitting ninth. Addison Russell held the starting shortstop job throughout the entirety of the 2016 season, starting 141 of a possible 162 games.

Yet the results were somehow even better than in 2015. The Cubs went from winning 97 games and securing the second Wild Card in 2015 to winning 103 and, in case you hadn’t heard, their first World Series in 108 years. Expect the unexpected.

Of course these Cubs will never again pull off anything as monumental as winning the franchise’s first World Series in over a century. The unexpected will have to come through somewhat menial accomplishments (comparatively). I’m betting on nine such things in 2017 (because it is such an integral number for baseball — nine players on the diamond defensively and nine innings in a game).

9. Javier Baez starts 25-plus games at 3 different positions

As unlikely as this prediction may seem at first blush, it’s actually not quite an Anthony Rizzo-sized stretch. Last season, the NLCS MVP started 38 games at second base, 36 at third base, and 21 at shortstop. Considering Addison Russell is nursing a sore back currently, Baez could get a head start at shortstop, and easily get over the 25-game hump before the other two positions.

Javier Baez proved a year ago he can play great defense at any position on the infield (Photo courtesy of quiggyt4).

Some of this, of course, relates to the positional versatility of other players on the roster. If the 2017 regular season is anything like that of 2016, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber will rotate starting games at the corner outfield positions, meaning Baez will get plenty of time at the hot corner and at second base, where he became a fixture in the postseason a year ago.

It’s also somewhat dependent upon Baez continuing his unexpected plate discipline from a year ago when he cut down on his K rate — 24.0 percent in 2016 compared to 30.0 percent in 2015, down from an incredibly high 41.5 percent in his 2014 rookie season. As good Baez’s glove is, he needs to keep his K rate manageable to maintain his spot in the starting lineup.

8. Pitcher hits eighth more than in 2015

Joe Maddon penciled his starting pitcher into the eighth place in the batting order 133 times in 2015. Interestingly, according to baseball-reference.com, he never did in 2016. Not one time.

If Spring Training is any indication, he certainly won’t repeat that trend in 2017. Will he possibly match 2015? Much like the aforementioned Baez prediction, at first blush it would seem almost impossible.

One does need to consider that the Cubs will play eight games in American League parks. That leaves 154 games which Maddon would be required to pencil the pitcher into the batting order. Simple math shows there are 21 opportunities for Maddon to pencil the pitcher into the eighth spot to get over that 133-game hump.

Maybe he will take some but not all of those 21 opportunities to have the pitcher hit in the more standard ninth spot. Maybe he’ll ditch the pitcher hitting eighth early in the year. Maybe he’ll double down and do it every game the pitcher is required to hit. Much of it is based on how often he has Kyle Schwarber lead-off. We turn to that next.

7. Kyle Schwarber will be the perfect lead-off hitter

Traditional baseball theory says anyone but Kyle Schwarber should hit lead-off for the 2017 Chicago Cubs. Maybe traditional baseball theory will win out in the end, but the Cubs are anything but traditional. Joe Maddon, with the help of the Cubs’ analytics department, pushes the limits of baseball strategy.

Going into 2017 the Cubs are relying on “Bam-Bam”/”Hulk”/Kyle Schwarber to lead-off (Photo courtesy of Arturo Pardavilla III).

The most recent development is hitting a 235 lb. catcher/left fielder in the first spot in the order. Without going too far in-depth to Maddon’s thinking, it makes sense on some fairly basic levels.

If Schwarber, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo are the Cubs’ three best hitters, hitting them 1–2–3 makes sense. They are. Check.

In the closest thing we have to a full Major League season for Schwarber, he got on base at a .355 clip. In 51 postseason plate appearances, his OBP is .451. Admittedly, it’s a very small sample size, but there’s good reason to think Schwarber will get on base at something close to a .350 clip. Check.

Getting back to a semi-traditional approach to hitting lead-off, few guys have the plate discipline of Schwarber. He sees a lot of pitches. He rarely swings at pitches out of the strike zone. He makes the pitcher work hard. That’s what you want out of a lead-off hitter. Check.

6. Carl (C.J.) Edwards Jr. becomes the Cubs’ 3rd most valuable pitcher

Carl Edwards Jr., or C.J. Edwards, has already become a very valuable pitcher for the Cubs. Late in 2016 Joe Maddon relied on him in close games and tight situations. He even became something of a de facto closer at times.

For the most part, he handled that role quite well. With Wade Davis entering the season a question mark, Edwards’ role early in the year could be much the same. If Davis does struggle as he has in the spring, Maddon will not hesitate to use Edwards to get key outs.

Where Edwards may become valuable is if the Cubs continue to blur the line between starter and reliever. It won’t happen full bore in 2017, but baseball is headed for a day when there will be virtually no distinction between starter and reliever.

Edwards, classically built to be a starter, but extremely effective as a reliever, will be a key piece in this evolution. He may become the first pitcher to start a game and end one in the same week (without it coming at the end of the year to clinch a postseason spot, or clinch a postseason series).

Edwards can pitch at any point in a game and do so effectively. As this becomes more and more the norm, his value will become obvious to anyone watching and willing to accept this new reality in baseball.

5. Cubs win more than 103 games in 2017

Using the super handy Win-Loss Pythagorean model from baseball-reference.com, you learn the Chicago Cubs underperformed their expected win-loss ratio in 2016 by four wins. Considering they had the best record in baseball with 103 wins, that’s quite startling. ESPN had them with an even higher expected win total of 109.

Rarely does a team win over 103 games and underperform — they were supposed to win 107 games according to the more reliable model. They probably will not register 107 expected wins again, but they should come close.

Joe Maddon and the Cubs’ analytics department believe the team should score more runs in 2017. Considering the team was somewhat unlucky in close games — they were 22–23 in one-run games when .500 is actually about what you’d expect — the Cubs would have won 107 with slightly more luck.

Reason has it they will be slightly luckier in 2017, because they seemed to ride a lot of luck in 2015 to a Wild Card berth, had little luck in 2016 and still won the World Series. 2017 is an odd year, which means more luck, right? You can predict luck, right?

Kris Bryant has one of the prettiest swings in all of baseball. It should earn him many Silver Slugger awards before he’s done (Photo courtesy of Ash Marshall).

4. Kris Bryant wins the Silver Slugger Award

One of the most unfathomable Cubs-related news items from the 2016 season is that Kris Bryant, yes, that Kris Bryant, did not win the Silver Slugger Award at third base. Granted, the winner at third base in the National League, Nolan Arenado, was quite a worthy selection.

However, we’re talking about Kris Bryant, yes, that Kris Bryant! The same guy who won the National League MVP! The same guy who, at times, carried the Cubs on his back through the postseason. The same guy who was second in WAR to only Mike Trout.

In 2017 expect Bryant, who escaped the dreaded sophomore slump, to improve once more. Some will ask, “How can he improve more?” The answer seems to come in the fact that he’s only 25 years old. Yes, he probably peaked a little bit earlier than many athletes, but he still hasn’t entered his prime.

He is near it though. As hard as it is to imagine, Bryant finished last season one home run away from the vaunted 40 home run club. Interestingly, most projection systems have Bryant finishing well short of the mark in 2017. Projection systems, however, are conservative by nature and it is fair to believe Bryant will beat their modest predictions for his season.

Generally, it is thought that it takes 1,000 plate appearances for a hitter to get really comfortable at the Major League level. It is similar to Malcolm Gladwell’s theory that it takes 10,000 hours of experience to become an expert in a given task.

Bryant surpassed that by August of last season. If you add in his postseason experience, Bryant has around 1,500 plate appearances at the big league level. This means he should be in for his best offensive season yet. Hopefully it leads to…

Kris Bryant — the shoulda been MVP of the 2016 World Series — celebrates the Cubs’ 1st title in 100 years (Photo courtesy of Travis).

3. KB also wins World Series MVP

Pretty much the only thing wrong with the 2016 World Series, aside from all the gray hair it gave even the youngest of Cubs fans, was the fact Kris Bryant didn’t win World Series MVP.

Considering the 2016 World Series was basically an either/or proposition — when one team won, they dominated — Bryant makes sense. Looking at the game-by-game log, Bryant scored all six of his runs in Cubs wins. Both of his home runs came in Cubs wins. Most of his walks came in losses, but most of his hits came in wins.

In other words, as Bryant went in the World Series, so the Cubs went. That’s the definition of Most Valuable Player. Considering the same was true in the regular season, it should have been obvious that Bryant was the most valuable player for the Cubs in the World Series.

Now, for Bryant to earn one of the only awards he is yet to claim, the Cubs must first return to the World Series. That won’t be easy, but the Cubs are statistically the most probable team to get there in 2017.

If the Cubs make it and subsequently win, it will likely again be because Kris Bryant leads them to the pinnacle of the sport.

2. Cubs become first to win back-to-back World Series since Yankees in 1998–2000

I’ve already established that the Cubs ought to win more than 103 games. Doing so will certainly get them into the postseason. It’s a pretty well-known fact that the baseball postseason is mostly a crapshoot. Sometimes the best team wins it all, but so often they do not.

Coincidentally, it’s been since 1998 through 2000 — back-to-back-to-back — when a team has repeated as World Series champion. The closest thing since is the every-other-year run of the San Francisco Giants in 2010, 2012, and 2014.

The other franchise to do something similar in that stretch of time is the Boston Red Sox, winning thrice in a decade’s time after breaking their “curse”.

Why will the Cubs be the next team to pull off the true back-to-back?

I’ve already established that they are projected to be better than a year ago. They should have more luck than they did a year ago in winning 103 games and the World Series. Winning a World Series requires skill and luck. The Cubs would seem to fit that bill pretty well.

That’s my highly scientific logic for why the Cubs will repeat.

Cubs fans hope to see Jason Heyward on base quite a bit more in 2017 (Photo courtesy of Julie Fennell).

1. Jason Heyward lives up to his contract

Anyone paying attention to the Cubs over the last year-plus knows Jason Heyward has not lived up to the expectations naturally placed upon him due to signing an eight-year, $184 million contract. Great glove work is important and a large part of why the Cubs signed him to said deal. With that much money going to one player, excellence at the plate is also expected.

No one should expect him to hit 30-plus home runs. He simply isn’t that kind of hitter. He’s supposed to be a high contact, high on-base guy. Basic probability suggests the more a player makes contact, the more often he will find some holes and get on base. BABIP can go against him for a stretch, but eventually that tends to even itself out.

That’s what Heyward needs to focus on in 2017. Put the ball in play. Stop swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. Take more walks.

If he does that, Heyward will improve mightily at the plate and make more of an impact offensively. Doing so, combined with his incredible glove, will help him live up to a contract almost impossible to live up to.

For many, that would be the ultimate encapsulation of expect the unexpected.

Will Osgood really loves Jake Arrieta. You can find him on Twitter here.