This is part of a series of posts tracking each team’s Elo rating, which changes week-to-week based not only on the outcome of their game but on the rating of their opponent. To learn more, read the post for Weeks 1 and 2.

1st to 10th

T-1. Bengals 546

T-1. Cardinals 546

3. Ravens 533 (+16)

4. Cowboys 532 (+15)

5. Chargers 531 (+13)

6. Lions 530 (+14)

7. Texans 528 (+16)

8. Eagles 527 (-19)

9. Seahawks 516

10. Broncos 514

I was really rooting for the Eagles to beat the 1-2 49ers Sunday so that we’d have a clear number one. Unfortunately the 49ers were determined to make this week’s post more boring, coming back against the Eagles in the second half and leaving two teams who had a bye week still tied for first. As punishment for letting me down, and for coming from a perfect record to lose to a team that was 1-2, the Eagles lost as many points as any team this week.

The Ravens beat the 2-1 Panthers to get a bigger jump than most teams that went from 2-1 to 3-1, becoming the highest-rated team that isn’t undefeated. They took this crown from the Chargers who won but got fewer points, having beaten the Jaguars. The Cowboys also beat a team with a losing record and got a smaller jump. The Texans beat the 2-1 Bills to rise the same amount as the Ravens but were coming from a somewhat lower rating.

The 2-1 Seahawks and Broncos follow, though they could have as easily been rounded down to the section with the 2-2 teams. Ratings are getting more and more spread out as the number of possible records increases, due both to having more games in the books as well as the fact six teams had a bye week. Consequently, the groupings are becoming more arbitrary.

The Cardinals face the Broncos next week and the Bengals face the 2-2 Patriots, so if both teams win, the Cardinals will get more points and move into sole possession of first place.

11th to 23rd

11. Giants 504 (+16)

T-12. 49ers 503 (+19)

T-12. Chiefs 503 (+17)

14. Packers 502 (+17)

15. Colts 501 (+16)

T-16. Bears 500 (-17)

T-16. Vikings 500 (+18)

T-18. Bills 499 (-16)

T-18. Patriots 499 (-17)

T-20. Dolphins 498 (+15)

T-20. Panthers 498 (-16)

T-20. Steelers 498 (-19)

23. Falcons 497 (-18)

The 49ers rose as much as any team but it wasn’t enough to surpass the Giants, who beat the Redskins and are still first among teams with two losses. Losing to the 1-2 Chiefs made the Patriots fall to just a point below 500. The Pats are as lucky margin of victory doesn’t matter as the Buccaneers were last week and the Redskins are this week.

Handing the Buccaneers their first win of the season made the Steelers fall as much as the Eagles, but it wasn’t enough to be last among 2-2 teams. That’s the Falcons, who dropped several more points losing to the 1-2 Vikings than they gained beating the 0-2 Bucs in Week 3.

24th to 32nd

T-24. Browns 484

T-24. Rams 484

26. Buccaneers 472 (+19)

27. Saints 470 (-15)

T-28. Jets 469 (-14)

T-28. Redskins 469 (-16)

T-28. Titans 469 (-16)

T-31. Jaguars 439 (-13)

T-31 Raiders 439 (-15)

The Browns and Rams are the Seahawks and Broncos of the basement, falling a step behind (except behind in badness) because of their bye week.

The Buccaneers are the only team that won in Week 4 that’s still here. They got their first win of the season and tied the 49ers for the biggest increase of Week 3, beating the 2-1 Steelers in their first win of the season, on the back of Mike “Literally The New Tom Brady” Glennon’s last-minute game-winning drive. This put them first among the 1-3 teams.

The Jaguars and Raiders are the Bengals and Cardinals of the basement as the only the winless teams left, except more so, because they didn’t have a bye week. The 30 point gap between the Jets/Redskins/Titans and the winless Jaguars and Raiders is the largest between any two positions. While the Jags couldn’t raise their Bortles high enough against the Chargers, they finally lost to a team that’d won games this season (unlike their Week 2 and Week 3 opponents), and losing to a high-rated opponent softened the fall a bit compared to the Raiders, who lost a couple more points, tying them for last and preventing the Jags from having sole possession of the slot for two consecutive weeks.

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