The Kerala floods in 2018 claimed the lives of over 500 people | Photo Credit: PTI

Key Highlights A recent study uncovered that dew point temperature -- the temperature at which air gets “saturated” with moisture – has risen significantly in the period between 1979 and 2015 The fact that reservoirs are full means that the country will not have to worry about water scarcity at least for another year Between June 20 and June 26, Mumbai had only received 8.4mm of rainfall translating to a deficit of 95%. However, the final week of June saw five straight days of heavy rainfall that caused severe flooding As climate simulation models improve in their sophistication, we can, of course, expect to uncover and predict to a greater certainty, the extent and nature of effects that anthropogenic heating is likely to cause

With the Bihar government declaring a ‘red alert’ in the state due to severe flooding, you may have, probably intuitively, noticed the drastic increase in such flood events over the last few years. Extreme precipitation events have, indeed, become more commonplace, especially in the latter half of the last decade, and the latest reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warn with ‘high confidence’ that the situation is likely to only get worse.

To witness how the intensity and frequency of weather events have multiplied lately, one only needs to look at the latest monsoon figures between June and September. The Central Water Commission, an organisation under the Ministry of Jal Shakti, releases a weekly bulletin outlining the reservoir levels across the country. On August 1st, it issued a bulletin showing that water levels in reservoirs were 20% below what they typically should be at the time of the year. However, only two weeks later, reservoirs were nearly full, with the organisation reporting them to be at 125% of normal storage.



Warmer temperatures, heavy rain

Between the two weeks, India experienced heavy rainfall in intense spurts – a phenomenon several experts attribute to the effect of anthropogenic heating of the climate. Heavy rainfall is caused when there is a depression in the atmosphere. Depression is simply an area of low pressure and is caused when air is warmed up and rises. As the warm air rises, the vacuum it leaves below is filled with colder air rushing in. The rising warm air eventually cools, condensing the water vapour stored within it, leading to precipitation.

A recent study uncovered that dew point temperature -- the temperature at which air gets “saturated” with moisture – has risen significantly between the period of 1979 and 2015. More specifically, with every 1-degree increase in temperature, the study discovered a 6% increase in the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water. As such, dew point temperature can be viewed as a measure of humidity and is widely regarded as a better predictor of extreme precipitation events than the surface air temperature.



If it rains, it'll pour

The findings of the study confirm what India is currently witnessing - Climate Change is here and its unpredictability is going to make matters worse. The country is beset with a problem it did not anticipate or is prepared to deal with currently. The fact that reservoirs are full means that the country will not have to worry about water scarcity at least for another year. However, there were, in fact, fears of the monsoon ending with a rainfall deficit, owing to the severe droughts across the country. For instance, between June 20 and June 26, Mumbai had only received 8.4mm of rainfall translating to a deficit of 95%. However, the final week of June saw five straight days of heavy rainfall that caused severe flooding. The devastating floods in Kerala in 2018 which took the lives of 500 people, were also preceded by a long period of drought.

The pattern is quite evident and global rainfall data confirms this as well. It shows that although the number of days with rainfall is falling, the intensity of rainfall (10-15cm per day or more) is increasing. Reports indicate that globally, approximately half of all annual precipitation took place across just 11 days.

As climate simulation models improve in their sophistication, we can, of course, expect to uncover and predict to greater certainty, the extent and nature of effects that anthropogenic heating is likely to cause. However, there is already plenty of confidence in the current models, and unless India ramps up its efforts to implement adaptation and mitigation measures, ease the rate of unplanned urbanisation, and restore desertified land, the consequences of a warming climate will prove to be devastating to lives and livelihoods.

The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way represent those of Times Network.