Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison

Tropical Cyclones

Microwave Rapid Intensification Index

Jerry at 09/25/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 9.6% 7.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% Consensus 1.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/25/19 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 119 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 2.1% 3.8% 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 3.3% 2.2% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 15.3% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% Consensus 2.8% 5.8% 4.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/25/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 116 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.4% 13.9% 10.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.2% 5.2% 4.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/25/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 115 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 1.7% 3.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 3.8% 2.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 12.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic 0.7% 1.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus 0.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus 1.8% 4.7% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/24/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 116 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.5% 15.7% 11.9% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 0.8% 2.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.1% 6.0% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/24/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 135 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.6% 12.3% 8.9% 5.9% 0.0% 9.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.6% 7.5% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 1.5% 6.6% 4.5% 2.1% 0.0% 3.2% 4.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/24/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 146 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.8% 11.6% 8.6% 7.0% 6.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 1.2% 4.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/23/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 147 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 1.9% 3.7% 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 13.1% 9.7% 8.0% 7.8% 9.6% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus 1.5% 4.6% 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/23/19 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 155 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 5.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 0.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/23/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 159 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/23/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 162 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.8% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 0.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/22/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 166 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 1.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/22/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 159 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.8% 12.3% 8.6% 7.0% 6.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.1% 4.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 2.2% 1.6% 0.2% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 1.8% 5.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/22/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 153 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 2.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 3.3% 3.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 15.2% 10.5% 8.2% 7.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic 0.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus 1.9% 5.9% 3.8% 2.8% 2.6% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/21/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 148 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 0.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 0.4% 4.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 0.3% 0.2% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/21/19 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts MW imagery available, but does not fully cover the TC center



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.3% 18.7% 12.9% 11.3% 8.8% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 3.4% 7.2% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 3.1% 2.7% 1.0% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 3.5% 8.8% 5.5% 4.6% 3.5% 4.7% 0.9% 0.3% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/21/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 155 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.1% 19.8% 13.7% 12.0% 10.3% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 4.3% 7.7% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 3.5% 9.4% 6.4% 5.5% 4.5% 5.1% 0.6% 0.2% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/21/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 154 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 2.5% 4.6% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 4.7% 3.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 20.4% 14.6% 13.0% 11.6% 11.8% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic 4.1% 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Logistic 5.1% 6.8% 4.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.1% 2.3% 0.4% Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus 2.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus 4.6% 9.6% 6.6% 5.7% 4.9% 5.0% 4.2% 0.1% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/20/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 141 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.4% 15.7% 11.2% 10.6% 8.8% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.3% 6.4% 4.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/20/19 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 146 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 2.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.4% 1.6% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 15.8% 11.5% 10.7% 8.5% 9.8% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic 0.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic 1.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus 1.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus 2.6% 6.6% 4.7% 4.1% 3.3% 3.8% 2.9% 0.1% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/20/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 146 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 11.9% 20.4% 14.7% 11.2% 10.9% 10.6% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 5.4% 8.9% 6.5% 5.6% 2.9% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 7.0% 7.4% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 8.1% 12.2% 8.6% 5.8% 4.6% 5.9% 4.1% 0.2% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/20/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 145 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 3.2% 4.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 4.4% 4.8% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 20.9% 14.9% 11.2% 10.8% 10.7% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic 4.8% 3.9% 1.9% 5.4% 4.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.6% Logistic 5.8% 9.8% 7.3% 7.1% 3.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.5% Bayesian 4.5% 1.8% 4.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 6.7% 3.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus 4.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 0.2% Consensus 7.6% 11.4% 8.5% 6.2% 4.7% 6.0% 4.7% 0.5% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/19/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 147 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 10.4% 20.9% 14.9% 11.2% 10.8% 10.7% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 5.8% 9.8% 7.3% 7.1% 3.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.5% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 6.7% 3.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 7.6% 11.4% 8.5% 6.2% 4.7% 6.0% 4.7% 0.5% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/19/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 147 kts MW imagery available, but does not fully cover the TC center



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 11.9% 22.2% 15.6% 11.8% 11.6% 11.4% 12.4% 13.3% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 6.2% 11.1% 8.9% 8.5% 3.2% 6.5% 3.4% 2.7% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 6.5% 1.9% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 2.3% 0.1% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 8.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.8% 4.9% 6.5% 6.0% 5.4% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/19/19 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 149 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 3.0% 5.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.2% 5.8% 4.8% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 23.0% 15.9% 13.3% 10.8% 12.7% 14.0% 15.9% Logistic 7.5% 11.9% 5.3% 9.6% 8.0% 6.3% 1.4% 3.7% Logistic 7.0% 12.3% 12.3% 10.8% 3.0% 5.7% 3.3% 3.3% Bayesian 1.5% 1.7% 6.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian 2.3% 0.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus 4.0% 6.2% 5.1% 4.4% 3.6% 4.2% 2.2% 3.1% Consensus 5.8% 11.9% 10.8% 8.1% 4.7% 6.9% 6.3% 6.4% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/19/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 148 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 3.7% 5.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.3% 6.6% 5.5% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 26.7% 16.6% 13.2% 10.8% 12.7% 14.9% 17.2% Logistic 9.4% 17.5% 7.8% 13.0% 10.4% 11.6% 2.4% 7.1% Logistic 11.6% 18.1% 19.4% 14.2% 3.1% 6.2% 4.0% 3.1% Bayesian 6.0% 8.0% 16.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Bayesian 6.2% 6.6% 11.0% 0.5% 0.7% 4.4% 5.0% 0.1% Consensus 6.4% 10.3% 9.1% 5.8% 4.8% 6.4% 3.0% 5.0% Consensus 8.8% 17.1% 15.7% 9.3% 4.9% 7.8% 7.9% 6.8% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/19/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 143 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 13.1% 41.7% 27.7% 17.4% 13.5% 23.2% 17.4% 19.2% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 14.4% 28.0% 33.6% 22.0% 4.2% 10.4% 4.3% 4.3% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 4.6% 31.6% 14.7% 0.6% 0.6% 8.3% 9.6% 0.4% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 10.7% 33.8% 25.3% 13.4% 6.1% 14.0% 10.4% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/18/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 144 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 21.5% 48.8% 34.8% 22.4% 14.4% 26.1% 30.0% 20.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 35.8% 49.1% 58.3% 44.3% 10.5% 15.7% 5.3% 3.5% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 19.2% 37.3% 38.9% 3.4% 3.2% 11.5% 12.3% 0.2% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 25.5% 45.0% 44.0% 23.4% 9.4% 17.8% 15.9% 7.9% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/18/19 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 23.1% 53.1% 38.7% 25.1% 14.7% 26.8% 30.9% 23.0% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 36.6% 48.9% 53.6% 30.8% 6.7% 21.2% 10.0% 7.1% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 29.3% 22.9% 47.4% 2.5% 1.7% 19.3% 10.2% 0.6% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 29.7% 41.6% 46.6% 19.5% 7.7% 22.4% 17.0% 10.3% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerry at 09/18/19 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 3.5% 20.5% 3.3% 6.0% 2.3% 11.4% 5.6% 17.8% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 38.0% 26.0% 13.5% 11.3% 12.9% 16.6% 20.5% Logistic 13.6% 46.1% 23.1% 11.0% 9.0% 17.8% 12.1% 22.5% Logistic 25.9% 48.0% 48.3% 27.7% 8.5% 20.8% 13.2% 7.3% Bayesian 5.3% 6.4% 6.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 9.8% Bayesian 8.1% 22.1% 35.3% 1.6% 1.1% 16.5% 33.3% 0.6% Consensus 7.5% 24.3% 10.8% 5.8% 3.8% 9.9% 6.1% 16.7% Consensus 14.7% 36.0% 36.5% 14.3% 7.0% 16.7% 21.0% 9.5% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ten at 09/18/19 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts MW imagery available, but does not fully cover the TC center



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF16 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 8.2% 33.7% 21.9% 13.0% 10.8% 12.9% 17.0% 21.2% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 19.0% 43.7% 43.3% 23.9% 7.6% 20.2% 12.2% 7.7% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 3.9% 11.9% 27.5% 0.8% 0.5% 14.4% 35.2% 1.6% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 10.4% 29.8% 30.9% 12.6% 6.3% 15.8% 21.5% 10.2% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ten at 09/17/19 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII 3.0% 13.9% 3.3% 2.9% 2.1% 15.1% 6.5% 27.6% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 22.3% 15.5% 11.7% 9.3% 12.0% 15.2% 21.6% Logistic 7.4% 36.6% 19.4% 9.6% 6.9% 21.9% 12.9% 34.3% Logistic 11.9% 33.6% 28.2% 15.3% 6.5% 19.2% 13.8% 7.0% Bayesian 1.5% 4.2% 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 5.5% Bayesian 1.6% 14.1% 10.2% 0.3% 0.2% 6.6% 15.5% 1.3% Consensus 4.0% 18.2% 8.7% 4.2% 3.1% 12.5% 6.6% 22.5% Consensus 6.6% 23.3% 18.0% 9.1% 5.3% 12.6% 14.8% 10.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ten at 09/17/19 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts No Microwave Imagery Available



Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.8% 27.1% 16.7% 12.4% 9.8% 12.5% 16.9% 33.7% Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 18.8% 37.6% 35.4% 20.1% 7.2% 26.4% 12.3% 8.4% Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 5.0% 30.7% 27.9% 1.1% 0.5% 24.3% 18.7% 3.5% Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 10.5% 31.8% 26.7% 11.2% 5.9% 21.1% 16.0% 15.2% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------