The receding odds of conflict reflect the fact that negotiations have resumed--with the next round of talks starting in Baghdad on May 23. Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the six nations bargaining with Iran, said she aimed to secure "the beginnings of the end" of the dispute. The United States is reportedly willing to ease some sanctions in exchange for a suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment program.

Meanwhile, in Israel, Shaul Mofaz, leader of the centrist Kadima Party, joined Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition. Some analysts see the move as enhancing the odds of war by creating a national unity government to rally Israelis around a strike. But Mofaz has criticized Netanyahu's handling of Iran, and described an early Israeli strike as potentially "disastrous."

What is the effect of the 2012 U.S. presidential election on the chances of war? One argument is that Israel may strike before the election because Obama will face intense political pressure from Republicans to back America's ally. Alternatively, Obama may restrain Israel from attacking Iran until after the November vote, to prevent an escalating conflict from imperiling his reelection.

According to our panel, the upcoming election will not have a decisive effect on the odds of war. The panel predicted a 19 percent chance of conflict in the six months before November. Compared to the overall 37 percent chance of war in the next twelve months, this means there is a roughly equal chance of a strike before and after the election.

For a second month, the Iran War Dial suggests a dovish ascendency in the Middle East. This spring Greece may be unraveling but there is cautious optimism about the Persian puzzle.