Bitcoin is vulnerable to pervasive, overwhelming and continuous force. No idea can flourish in the shadow of unlimited government. So long as a notion threatens the dominant form of oppression, it is vulnerable.

I’m not for or against Bitcoin’s success. I’m all for the Bitcoin experiment though. Having had a long-time interest in economic history, I’m thrilled to see something this fascinating happening in my lifetime. Bitcoin has many tough hurdles ahead before it is widely used to pay NYC cab fare. Until then, it is great fun to watch.

My long-term prophecy for Bitcoin is based on the assumption that it does have value. Today it has only price, not any proven value. If it does prove to have value then some folks will amass an enormous amount of it. At that point, there will be value in the US government confiscating that value and closing down the Bitcoin dream. How? Forfeiture. The US government doesn’t even have to pass any new laws. It can just wait until individuals are accumulating material goods purchased with Bitcoin and then … take all the goods. No crime needs to be charged, no trial needs to be won. The end of the road for Bitcoin, whether it is 5 years away or 55 years away, is over night forfeiture of every item ever purchased with it. I see Bitcoin as a grass roots savings account for future politicians and despots. to take when the time is right.

I see another possible future for Bitcoin too…a long shot. If the current momentum of the Ron Paul Republicans can manage to transform the GOP into an engine for nominating and electing limited government conservatives then perhaps the resulting, simultaneous, push to limit government could allow Bitcoin to live a longer and fuller life. The point is, Bitcoin isn’t a magic shield against the real world; It does not provide “Freedom From” oppression. Bitcoin evangelists and speculators are quick to point to all the ways in which Bitcoin is impervious, technically, theoretically, culturally, intellectually, etc. Mostly though, they miss completely Bitcoins most glaring vulnerability. Force. Every idea from Bitcoin, to Christianity, to Charity and Savings is vulnerable to the force that can be brought to bear by an unlimited government.

There exists a fantasy-land where a lot of folks spend much of their time in which an idea, some idea, maybe Bitcoin? Maybe not….but someday some idea will free people from living their lives so as to deal with the consequences of other people’s choices in the past; where everyone adheres to the non-initiation of force principle and liberty is a natural, pervasive condition of the human experience.

Of course, basing one’s real world actions and priorities on the existence of a fantasy-land where the basic Mesian tenets of human action no longer apply cannot result in achieving those unrealistic, improbable outcomes.

As H.L. Mencken said, “Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable.” It is this manner of faith which tends to destroy the political effectiveness of those who are blinded by it. They seek an improbable outcome, based on the actions they choose to manifest that outcome, calling it improbable is too kind in my view.

So far Bitcoin seems most appealing to folks who see it as a way of “Going Galt”. In other words, young people with little to lose, hardly any savings and the tendency to believe that strong feelings can change the way the real world works. They may be right…but few of them seem to understand the long hard road ahead. They pin their hopes on the idea embodied in Bitcoin while exhibiting profound faith in its magical ability to secure their liberty (defined as freedom from the real world of action and consequence) reaping the rewards without doing the work in the real world. Today Bitcoin seems most loved by those whose idea of securing liberty is a good scheme. George Carlin’s bit about drugs where he described “no poke shit” as dope you just cop it, and stay high…comes to mind every time I think of these people believing a magic machine that transmutes electricity into heat and Bitcoin is going to ensure their liberty so they can get on to more interesting things.

The wide-eyed optimists who are the overwhelming majority of folks who write about Bitcoin today are encouraging to me. How many of them can be turned on to pursue constructive political behavior in the real world compared to the number who will be siphoned off in to the self-marginalized herds of futility-embracing Libertarians, Independents or unaffiliated political spectators? Probably not very many. They are best counted as a total loss to defenders of liberty for any constructive endeavors in the future.

However, their current antics and the excitement they are generating about Bitcoin attracts a world full of folks who are watching them keenly. Many of those lured in by the spectacle but not personally participating in it can be reached with sound leadership and proven examples of constructive outcomes. They are less likely to be sucked into the political futility game. Limited government conservatives need to know these people are there, know they are watching and know the futility loving herds are hoping to suck them in too.

This is no time for passivity when it comes to making the case for limiting government.