The honeymoon could be over for Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos.

No longer is he viewed as baseball’s Boy Wonder, as he was after taking over from J.P. Ricciardi on Oct. 3, 2009. No longer is he perceived as the game’s rising star, a 32-year-old with unlimited vision and the vigour of youth. No longer is he looked upon as one step ahead, ready to re-invent the GM position.

No, it seems others have adjusted to him faster than he has adjusted to them, and after four seasons the clock on his tenure is clearly ticking. Early, he was renowned for his knowledge of all 29 competitors — what skills they sought, what players they were willing to offer. He could call GMs to discuss trades he had no intention of making, simply for the knowledge, the information. It was gold.

Whenever he needed a third wheel to finish up a trade, he knew where to go to find the missing piece. He was the ringmaster with information as his whip. It was radical, game-changing stuff.

It was just a year ago that Anthopoulos shocked the baseball world by swinging blockbuster trades with the Marlins and Mets, signing Melky Cabrera and hiring the overlooked John Gibbons to manage a group that was a Las Vegas favourite. The national media fawned over his aggressive tactics and closed-mouth approach to dealing with other teams and the public. If info leaked, it was the other guy.

Ultimately, his team fell on its face and there was little, if any, sympathy within the GM fraternity. When right-hander Doug Fister was traded to the Nats in November, Anthopoulos was surprised and indicated the Tigers surely knew he was interested, that he would have liked a last chance to bid on the talented starter. Would he have been given the opportunity two years ago? Perhaps.

One executive at the recent winter meetings indicated that other GMs now realize that when they are talking to Anthopoulos about a potential trade, it may just be information gathering. Some have become more careful in their conversations. Maybe it’s time to adjust.

In Anthopoulos’s three seasons as GM since transforming Ricciardi’s 80-82 team of 2009 into a faux-contender at 85-77 in 2010, Anthopoulos has constructed teams that have posted win totals of 81, 73 and 74. He needs a winning season in 2014 or he will likely be fired.

The fact is that since Baseball America began keeping a database on MLB GMs in 1950, only two have put up a winning record in their first season with a team followed by four straight losing records — and still kept their jobs. Anthopoulos can equal that dubious precedent in 2014.

The two who did it were Sal Bando, with the 1992-96 Milwaukee Brewers, and Jim Beattie, with the 1996-2000 Montreal Expos. Bando survived another two-plus losing seasons in Milwaukee before offering his resignation in August of 1999. He survived primarily because he was a local hero, a third baseman in the team’s glory years. As for Beattie, he stayed on through 2001 because the Expos were in the process of being contracted by MLB and nobody else wanted the job. When the commissioner’s office was forced to purchase the franchise and keep it afloat after contraction failed, Beattie was replaced by Omar Minaya, who stayed until 2004 when the Expos moved to Washington, D.C.

If the Jays do indeed post a losing record in 2014, Anthopoulos, who grew up in Montreal, could join Beattie on the short list of infamy. The irony is that Beattie was the GM Anthopoulos convinced to give a kid with no experience an internship in Expos player development, a foot in the door that led him to where he is today. Anthopoulos did not forget. Beattie is currently a Jays major-league scout and trusted adviser to the GM.

Of course, that perception of failure could all change in the next 10 months. With four months until opening day and 162 games of the regular season to follow, Anthopoulos has enough time to make necessary changes. He might start by competing hard for Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka or, failing that, signing a free agent starter such as Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Jays are not that far away from being a contender. This, after all, is a team that was odds-on a year ago, that had the country excited on the basis of huge trades with the Marlins and the Mets, bringing in a competitive payroll and big-name players. The team has not changed dramatically in terms of core personnel. That perception of failure would change with a winning record. But until then, Anthopoulos’ tenure over four seasons has been a tremendous disappointment.

How does A.A.’s record stack up against other Jays GMs over 37 seasons? That list includes Peter Bavasi (1977), Pat Gillick (1978-94), Gord Ash (1994-2001), Ricciardi (2002-09) and now Anthopoulos. He’s fallen back and needs to separate again.

In 2010, despite being forced into trading Roy Halladay and with only the Phillies as a true trading partner, Anthopoulos emerged as the first Jays GM to begin his tenure with a winning record. His passion, Canadianism, outside-the-box thinking and thirst for information on other teams’ needs made him a rock star. He is now just one of the boys, with Ash and Ricciardi, when it comes to judging his four years at the helm.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Putting Gillick aside — because his teams were basically the product of an unfair expansion draft — here are the win totals for the previous two Jays GMs after four years and five years: Ash, 301/385; Ricciardi 311/398. Anthopoulos, with 313 wins after four, needs a season of 85 victories to equal Ricciardi, the much-maligned Worcester, Mass., native who claimed upon his arrival in November, 2001 that he had come to teach Toronto fans about baseball.

Anthopoulos, like his predecessor, has found out Jays fans are knowledgeable and hard to fool.

Read more about: