Coalition says Iraqis close to taking Ramadi

Jim Michaels | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Iraq forces have surrounded the city of Ramadi and are preparing for a final assault in what will be the first significant test of American-trained forces against the Islamic State, according a senior official with the U.S.-led coalition that is supporting the mission.

Iraqi forces plan to tighten a cordon around the city to cut escape routes before launching a final operation to clear militants out of the city, according to the senior official, who closely monitors the fighting. He asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak publicly about the operation.

The official said that airstrikes by the coalition and Iraqi ground operations have severely weakened Islamic State forces inside the city. That may allow Iraqi forces to avoid a prolonged street battle with major casualties that military planners have feared.

Coalition officials declined to say when a final assault may take place. Temperatures in Ramadi and surrounding Anbar province can climb to 120 degrees in the summer and the logistics of providing enough water and other supplies to sustain a major offensive are complex.

"It's a slow, methodical, deliberate advance on the city," said Navy Cmdr. Elissa Smith, a Pentagon spokeswoman.

The Iraqis have assembled a force of about 10,000 troops, including about 3,000 trained by American advisers. The offensive force includes about 500 U.S. trained tribal fighters, the Pentagon said.

It is not clear how many militants the Iraqis will face in the city. Estimates by the coalition have ranged from several hundred to 2,000.

Despite being outnumbered, the militants' defensive posture provides an advantage: They can fire from bunkers and other concealed locations, and it will be difficult for the coalition to bombard the militants, who can hide in an urban setting. The Sunni city once had 400,000 residents, but most civilians fled when it fell to the Islamic State in May. Iraq’s government launched an offensive to take the city a month ago.

The official said military pressure seems to be causing a split between local Islamic State fighters and non-Iraqi leaders, some of whom are fleeing the city.

In June, President Obama authorized an additional 450 U.S. advisers for Iraq, mainly to assist in retaking Ramadi and the surrounding Anbar Province. The total number of U.S. troops there is about 3,200.

The U.S. troops are banned from accompanying Iraqi forces into combat, but have been training and advising Iraqi forces from large bases.

Ismael Alsodani, a retired Iraqi brigadier general who served as a military attache in Washington, said the Ramadi offensive is progressing, but has been delayed by a number of factors, including a slow response by the coalition to Iraqi requests for airstrikes.

The Pentagon has said it acts cautiously to avoid civilian casualties, but the strikes have been effective. More than 115 coalition air strikes have targeted militants in Ramadi during the past month, hammering at bunkers and obstacles that militants have built to slow the Iraqi offensive, coalition figures show.

Most ground forces used in the Ramadi offensive are Iraqi army and tribal fighters. Washington convinced Baghdad not to use Shiite militias out of concerns that they would alienate the city's largely Sunni population, Alsodani said.

But that decision could put the Iraqis at a military disadvantage, Alsodani said, since it deprives them of a significant number of troops. "It's premature to say that the operations have achieved the aims," he said.

Some analysts said coalition predictions have proven overly optimistic in the past. "Since 2003, U.S. officials have been predicting enormous successes in Mosul or Tikrit, for example, only to be humbled by reality," said Ali Khedery, a former special assistant to five U.S. ambassadors in Iraq, referring to other operations in Iraq. "In each case there has been a major setback due to Washington's fundamental inability to understand or act on the nuances on the ground."