This article is more than 6 years old

This article is more than 6 years old

There is a “clear link” between climate change and bushfires, with the current New South Wales fires influenced by a rising frequency of hot, dry days, according to the climate body that had its funding withdrawn by the Coalition government.

The Climate Council’s findings offered a rebuke to Tony Abbott’s assertion that there was no correlation between climate change and the NSW fires, which the prime minister renewed on Friday when he dismissed claims of a link as "complete hogwash".

Asked by the News Corporation columnist Andrew Bolt about the "insanity" of the reaction to the fires by the "media and outside" in connecting the fires to global warming, Abbott said: "I suppose, you might say, that they are desperate to find anything that they think might pass as ammunition for their cause.”

The Climate Council comprises an independent group of scientists and businesspeople established from the ashes of the Climate Commission, which was abolished by the government in September.

In interim findings from a 25-page report on bushfire risks due to be released in November, the Climate Council said long-term drying trends were creating conditions ideal for fire outbreaks. The council’s report explicitly links the NSW fires to climate change.

Professir Lesley Hughes, part of the council and an ecologist at Macquarie University, said: “Last summer was the hottest on record across Australia. Last September was also the hottest September on record.

“South-east Australia is experiencing a long-term drying trend. This is consistent with the IPCC special report on extreme weather, which projects an increase in the number of consecutive dry days in south-east Australia.

“When you have more frequent hot days and less rain, it increases the likelihood of extreme fire weather. The fires in NSW are being influenced by these conditions.”

Abbott has strongly opposed the view that there is a link between climate change and the bushfires, insisting “fire is part of the Australian experience”. Earlier this week, he said UN climate change chief Christiana Figueres had been “talking out of her hat” for warning that increased bushfires were a symptom of climate change.

Abbott told Bolt: “This idea that every time we have a fire or a flood it proves that climate change is real is bizarre, because since the earliest days of European settlement in Australia, we've had fires and floods, and we've had worse fires and worse floods in the past than the ones we are currently experiencing.

"And the thing is that at some point in the future, every record will be broken, but that doesn't prove anything about climate change."

Hughes said while bushfires in October were not uncommon, the “scale, scope and intensity” of the fires in the Blue Mountains and greater Sydney area were unusual.

“It is crucial for the public, emergency service workers and health workers to be able to prepare for more of this type of extreme weather,” she said.

“To deny the influence of climate change on extreme fire weather, and not take appropriate action to prepare for these changed conditions, places people and property at unnecessarily high risk.

“We encourage all participants in the current debate to base their views on the peer-reviewed scientific literature and on reliable observational data, as it is important that information be provided to people in a dispassionate and accurate way.”

The Climate Council’s interim findings, drawn from 60 peer-reviewed studies, show climate change is influencing the number of extremely warm days in Australia, as well as prolonged periods of low rainfall.

Heatwaves are becoming “more frequent and severe”, leading to an increase over the past 30 years in extreme fire weather in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and parts of South Australia.

The report warns that south-east Australia is set to experience a further increase in the number of days with heightened fire danger, stating that lengthening fire seasons will reduce opportunities for fuel reduction burning.

Professor Will Steffen, another member of the Climate Council and former executive director of the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute, said: “In Australia, climate change is influencing both the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, and may also be playing a role in the long-term drying trend in the south-east. This increases the risk of bushfires by increasing extreme fire weather.

“Climate change is making hot days hotter. It’s making heatwaves more frequent and severe.

“Australia has always had bushfires. However, climate change is increasing the probability of extreme fire weather days and is lengthening the fire season.”