Following the Week 5 EU LCS match between Giants Gaming and H2K-Gaming, G2 Esports AD carry Jesper “Zven” Svenningsen joined the analyst desk to break down the games. The topic inevitably turned to the looming Intel Extreme Masters Grand Final in Katowice, Poland.

“Do you agree that if we don’t get at least two European teams in the semifinal, it would be a huge disappointment?” EU LCS caster Martin “Deficio” Lynge asked Zven.

“Having expectations for yourself that’s going to make you let down when you don’t win,” Zven said after he, Deficio, and Eefje “Sjokz” Depoortere discussed G2’s cockiness and failures in 2016.

Deficio let Zven off easily. Despite insisting that, given the circumstances of Katowice and the lack of high level teams from regions outside LMS, he still hesitated to predict a win for Europe’s best team.

“I expect them at least to make it to Top 4, and I’m gonna say, they’re going to make it all the way to the final.”

The reality of the situation is that just making the final would not be enough for G2 Esports at this point — or any European LCS team attending the event in Katowice, for that matter. With Flash Wolves struggling to execute strategies other than ones that sacrifice side lane advantages for mid lane leads, and only the eighth and tenth place teams for LCK in attendance, the EU LCS has no excuse to not take first at the IEM Season 11 World Championship.

In the short exchange between Deficio and Zven, the desk strove to remove the pressure from G2. G2 gained a reputation for choking in their only two international events: the 2016 MidSeason Invitational and the 2016 World Championship. Disastrous “vacation” announcements and nursery rhymes criticizing Luka “PerkZ” Perković resonate more strongly with G2 ESports than expectations for success.

But it would be dishonest to let G2 off easily this time. Though they have flopped at all the international events they’ve attended, appearing uncoordinated or failing to play well around their jungler, G2 have still blown through their competition in Europe. After a 2-0 victory over previously undefeated Unicorns of Love, G2 cemented themselves at the top of the EU LCS. They haven’t lost a domestic match in over a year.

IEM Katowice cannot just be a break from LCS for the European teams in attendance. After two consecutive years advancing to World Championship semifinals and victories at California-based IEM Final qualifiers, it’s unacceptable for the best team in Europe to consistently fail to impress internationally, even at an event almost no one will “take seriously.”

Holy I didnt even realize ROX was at IEM, how clueless of me. I said KDM would win earlier, I guess theyll have to settle for second — Nick De Cesare (@LSXYZ9) February 19, 2017





One of the easiest ways to correctly predict outcomes of international tournaments is to simply say the highest ranked Korean team will win. It’s often difficult to see past stylistic differences across regions and decide which method is optimal or which will beat another. Judging players against steeper or poorer competition sparks heated debate.

The reticence to predict a European victory doesn’t just come from G2’s underwhelming international performances. Even with only eighth or tenth place LCK teams in attendance, League of Legends analysts will almost always default to predicting a Korean victory. While some analysts have genuinely analyzed the games and concluded a Kongdoo or ROX victory as the logical outcome, others may hesitate to predict a win for a European team even if they decide it’s most likely.

Many like to reference historical examples like KT Rolster Bullets in 2014, who eventually placed 5th-8th place in Champions Korea Spring and won Intel Extreme Masters Katowice in the same split. With similar placement, SK Telecom T1 K also won All Stars, or the first iteration of the MidSeason Invitational that year.

That hasn’t consistently happened since 2014. In 2015 at Katowice, GE Tigers, the first place LCK team, were eliminated by last place LPL squad Team WE. Later that year, the rebuilding Jin Air Green Wings dropped to North America’s Counter Logic Gaming.

In last year’s IEM, SK Telecom T1 didn’t come into the IEM World Championship from a dominant position within the LCK. SKT did, however, go on to win LCK Spring split after overcoming their competition in Poland. In the same tournament, Challenger team ESC Ever won a single match before elimination. Longzhu Gaming had disastrous matches against Oceanic Wildcard team Chiefs before being eliminated by Flash Wolves.

Story continues