The numbers: A measure of pending home-sales jumped 4.6% in January, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. Sales were 2.3% lower than a year ago, making January the 13th straight month of year-over-year declines.

What happened: NAR’s pending home-sales index, which tracks home contract signings, registered at a reading of 103.2 in January after it touched a nearly five-year low in December. Most economists expected the January bounce. And the trade group itself said the reopening from the partial government shutdown brought an expected boost to early-year housing activity. Still, January’s reading beat the Econoday consensus forecast of a 1% increase. In January, pending sales increased in every region. They were up 1.6% in the Northeast, 2.8% in the Midwest, 0.3% in the West and a whopping 8.9% in the South.

See also:As the housing market stagnates, American homeowners are staying put for the longest stretches ever

Big picture: With a broad array of headwinds and tailwinds buffeting the housing market, sales patterns have been choppy. Contract signings usually precede closings by about 45 days, so the pending home-sales index is a leading indicator for upcoming existing-home sales reports. The Realtors expect sales of existing homes to be 1.1% lower in 2019 than last year.

What they’re saying: On Tuesday, as investors digested fresh evidence of a slumping housing market, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that he and his colleagues are weighing “conflicting signals” from the economy. That comes as some analysts are turning somewhat more bullish on housing.

“We have argued recently that existing home sales would soon have to hit bottom, and this report tentatively suggests that the worst now is over; the 50 [basis points] drop in mortgage rates since late last summer is helping,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macro.

“February existing home sales should now rebound handily and with new home sales likely to head higher too, given the rising trend in mortgage demand, the gloomy housing narrative in markets and the media is set to change quite dramatically over the next few months. The market is not rolling over, and it is not a harbinger of recession in the broader economy.”

Time will tell if the current downturn is just a pause, or the beginning of the end of the current housing cycle.

Market reaction: Homebuilder stocks ITB, +3.13% , which have roared higher this year in anticipation of a coming rebound in housing, slid Tuesday following the release of a dismal report on new construction. Shares of LGI Homes, Inc. LGIH, +4.92% , which are up nearly 30% in the year to date, fell nearly 3% Tuesday. KB Home KBH, +4.03% ’s stock, up more than 22% for the year, also declined.

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