Millet

January 9, 2015



The third part of the latest Iraq public opinion poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research dealt with Kurdistan. The survey was conducted from August to September 2015 and included 2,000 respondents from all parts of the country. The general feeling was that the relationship between Baghdad and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was getting worse, at the same time the region was deeply divided along partisan lines and both KDP leader Massud Barzani and KDP official & PM Nechirvan Barzani are the most disapproved leaders in Kurdistan region.



Kurds were very pessimistic about their situation. The financial crisis due to wrong policy by leader Barzanis, the war with the Islamic State, the flood of displaced into the region because of the fighting, and the political disputes between the KDP and Gorran have all led to people questioning their situation. The economic problems especially have led to government workers, the largest part of the work force to not be paid for months, development projects have come to a halt, and the regional government is facing a huge debt none of which will be repaired soon as the KRG is oil dependent just like Baghdad meaning it has little means to adjust things when oil prices drop as they have been doing.



Partisan politics determined the views on the regional government and its leaders. KDP voters were overwhelmingly happy with President Barzani, 99%, but that was not shared by PUK voters, 31% approved, or Gorran supporters, only 7%. All groups liked the job the regional parliament was doing with 57% of KDP voters, 79% of PUK ones, and 83% of Gorran supporters approving of the legislature. When it came to the regional government ideas were more split with 89% of KDP members saying it was doing a good job, but only 52% of PUK voters and 43% of Gorran ones. The same opinions were expressed when asked which institution should have the most authority. Overall, 36% said the parliament, 33% the president, 13% the peshmerga and 7% the KRG premier. By party, PUK and Gorran voters backed the parliament, while KDP followers were for the president. The KRG has been dealing with a political crisis over whether President Barzani should be allowed to stay in office even though his term has officially expired. The KDP has responded to the dispute by dismissing all the Gorran cabinet ministers and the speaker of parliament. That is reflected in the responses about the president with hardly any PUK or Gorran voters approving of him. There is a shared opinion that the parliament is trying to do its job, while feelings are more mixed about the regional government. Gorran being kicked out of office may account for the mixed feelings about the KRG overall.



Do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing?



KDP 99% Approve, 1% Disapprove

PUK 31% Approve, 67% Disapprove

Gorran 7% Approve, 87% Disapprove



Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Kurdish parliament is doing?



KDP 57% Approve, 39% Disapprove

PUK 79% Approve, 21% Disapprove

Gorran 83% Approve, 17% Disapprove



Do you approve or disapprove of the job the KRG is doing?



KDP 89% Approve, 95 Disapprove

PUK 52% Approve, 48% Disapprove

Gorran 43% Approve, 57% Disapprove



Which institution should have the most authority over decisions?



Overall 36% Parliament, 33% President, 13% Peshmerga, 7% KRG Premier

KDP 10% Parliament, 82% president, 0% Peshmerga, 3% KRG Premier

PUK 56% Parliament, 9% President, 11% Peshmerga, 12% KRG Premier

Gorran 62% Parliament, 19% President, 10% Peshmerga, 7% KRG Premier



All of the Kurdish politicians were seen in a poor light. President Barzani had the best rating at 41% favoring him, but 46% saying unfavorable. Speaker of the Kurdish parliament Yusef Mohammed had 38% favorable and 40% unfavorable. Premier Nechirvan Barzani was at 36% favorable, 50% unfavorable. PUK leader Kosrat Rasul had 32% favorable and 49% unfavorable, while Iraq’s President Fuad Masum from the PUK received 31% favorable responses versus 45% unfavorable. Obviously, people were upset as no figure had a positive standing. That represented the partisan politics of the region and the inability of any leader to rise above those divisions and become a figure for all Kurds.



Favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following politicians?



Pres. M. Barzani 41% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable

Speaker Mohammed 38% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable

Premier N. Barzani 36% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable

Rasul 32% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable

Iraq Pres. Masum 31% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable



There were partisan divisions over whether President Barzani should have stayed in office. Overall, 39% said he should have been extended versus 51% opposing that idea. Amongst KDP voters 94% supported him getting an extension, while only 17% of PUK supporters and 4% of Gorran ones did. When asked should Barzani stay president until the war with IS is over the responses were largely the same with 45% saying he should stay in office versus 49% against. 99% of KDP voters believed he should remain president versus 16% by PUK voters and 15% of Gorran partisans. It’s obvious that these questions showed how divided the region is over Barzani.



Do you approve/disapprove of President Barzani’s extension?



Overall 39% Approve, 51% Disapprove

KDP 94% Approve, 6% Disapprove

PUK 17% Approve, 74% Disapprove

Gorran 4% Approve, 89% Disapprove



Do you think President Barzani should remain in office until the crisis with IS is over?



Overall 45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

KDP 99% Approve, 0% Disapprove

PUK 16% Approve, 77% Disapprove

Gorran 15% Approve, 82% Disapprove



Similarly there were splits over how the president should be elected. 47% said it should be by direct vote of the people, while just as many, 46% said the parliament should do it. 98% of KDP backers were for a direct vote, while 72% of PUK backers and 79% of Gorran supporters were for a parliamentary system. The KDP is for a popular vote because they have more supporters in the KRG than the other parties. In parliament however the two other parties have more power so they support giving the legislature the authority to pick the executive.



Do you want to directly elect the president of have the parliament elect the president?



Overall 47% Direct, 46% Parliament

KDP 98% Direct, 0% Parliament

PUK 19% Direct, 72% Parliament

Gorran 16% Direct, 79% Parliament



When asked about the political parties the PUK was the only one that came out with a good rating. 44% had a favorable opinion of that party versus 34% negative. The KDP had 38% favorable versus 50% unfavorable, while Gorran was at 36% positive, 45% negative. The PUK came out on top because it was supported not only by its own partisans, but a large percent of Gorran and KDP members as well. The KDP and Gorran have the biggest rivalry right now over President Barzani, while the PUK has tried to work with both of them giving it a generally positive image across the board.



Do you have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of the following parties?



PUK 44% Favorable, 34% Unfavorable

KDP 38% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable

Gorran 36% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable



Do you have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of the following parties by party followers?



KDP Voters

KDP 96% Favorable

PUK 42% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable

Gorran 24% Favorable, 55% Unfavorable



PUK Voters

KDP 18% Favorable, 67% Unfavorable

PUK 86% Favorable

Gorran 35% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable



Gorran Voters

KDP 8% Favorable, 83% Unfavorable

PUK 37% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable

Gorran 93% Favorable



On whether people thought the peshmerga was divided opinion was almost evenly split with 46% saying divided versus 50% unified. 77% of KDP supporters picked unified compared to 44% of PUK backers and 39% of Gorran voters. The peshmerga were originally created by the KDP and PUK as their armed wings. The KRG has talked about uniting those forces for decades, but the two parties still dominate them. KDP followers still believed in that united vision, while PUK and Gorran members saw the peshmerga as largely extensions of the parties.



Do you think the Peshmerga are divided or unified?



Overall 46% Divided, 50% Unified

KDP 19% Divided, 77% Unified

PUK 52% Divided, 44% Unified

Gorran 58% Divided, 39% Unified



Finally, almost all respondents were worried that the partisan divide between the parties would lead to future conflicts. 94% were very concerned about that, and that was the same response by all the different voters. The split between the parties is very wide right now with neither the KDP nor Gorran showing any signs of compromise over President Barzani’s term. For the first time in years that’s raising the question of whether the region will return to civil war. That doesn’t seem likely, especially because Gorran has no armed wing, but Kurds are worried that more civil unrest is on the horizon. Already there were protests in the province that started out over wages and services, and quickly came to be dominated by partisan divisions with demonstrators being fired upon. Those types of events are likely to happen again especially with the economic pressures growing making many people unhappy with their situation.



How concerned are you that tensions between the ruling parties will lead to internal conflict in Kurdistan?



Overall 94% Concerned, 5% Unconcerned

KDP 94% Concerned, 5% unconcerned

PUK 94% Concerned, 6% Unconcerned

Gorran 93% Concerned, 7% Unconcerned