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Under the Basel Convention, if parties can’t reach a peaceful agreement, they can take matters to the International Court of Justice. As of Wednesday, the government official said things were looking good for a resolution within weeks, not months, which “will most probably require Canada to take back the waste.” We’re probably going to miss Duterte’s deadline, though.

Photo by Philippine Bureau of Customs/File

Is the president seriously thinking of declaring war over this?

Often compared to his United States counterpart, Donald Trump, Duterte is known for his temper and casual insults. He made headlines, for example, when he called Barack Obama a “son of a whore” in 2016.

Canadian garbage is a hot enough issue in the Philippines that Duterte made its removal one of his campaign promises the same year. Talking about the trash on Tuesday, he said Canadians can “eat it if you want to,” and recommended Ottawa organize a gala reception upon its arrival.

Because of his general attitude, observers aren’t taking the calls for literal war all that seriously.

But what about some kind of trade war?

If Duterte doesn’t start a costly international arbitration process, prepare his battleships, or, for that matter, just put the garbage on a boat himself, there are other ways for the Philippines to mess with Canada. Messing with the trade relationship wouldn’t be a particularly smart one, said Carlo Dade, a trade expert at the Canada West Foundation.

The Philippines has a surplus in the goods trade — it exports $1.3 billion of merchandise to Canada, more than double the $626 million Canada sends. However, Canada is home to more than 558,000 Philippines-born immigrants, according to 2016 census data. And Statistics Canada reported last week that Canadian residents sent $1.2 billion in remittances to the Philippines in 2017, more than to any other country.