“Content is king. Content runs the world.” — Shane Mac

We sit here today, March 2017, at what could potentially be one of the most interesting periods in the history of modern technology. Companies like Microsoft, Magic Leap, and Meta are building out what may end up being the greatest transformation in computing since the advent of the iPhone. As optimistic as I am about this future, there is undoubtedly a long road ahead before this transformation comes to fruition. These companies are battling not only a litany of very real technological challenges, but also the intense struggle for social acceptance.

As we have witnessed over the past few months, the tide of public opinion can turn rapidly like it did for Magic Leap. Beyonce was not impressed by their technology, the “Beast” prototype leaked, and they’re apparently doing 1,000 things badly. What was once the most ballyhooed startup in the country, is now drawing comparisons to the failing hype machine that is Theranos. In the aftermath of Magic Leap’s bad press firestorm, they are now facing an overwhelming amount of pressure to finally release a consumer product. As they push towards their first wearable consumer headset (and Microsoft focuses in on their HoloLens 2.0) it is my hope that in these headset wars, neither company loses sight of the real key to AR: useful applications.

Leaked photo of the Magic Leap “Beast” prototype

Now this is not necessarily a revolutionary idea. Both Magic Leap and Microsoft have already invested millions of dollars in fostering partnerships and developing first generation apps, but the importance of finding hit applications cannot be overemphasized. Let’s take the iPhone as a base case for just how significant apps can be.

The iPhone was one of only three technologies that, upon first use, I immediately thought, “wow, this is the future” with the other two being The Wii and the Oculus Rift. But, as awesome as the first iPhone was the day it was released, it’s true potential as arguably the greatest technology device ever created, wasn’t realized until July 2008 when the app store was released. What was at first a great device for phone calls and internet browsing, all of a sudden became the everything-device. No matter what you wanted to do, there was an app for that. We all love our iPhones, but they’re truly indispensable because they connect us to the Ubers, Snapchats, and Spotify’s. Without these ultra-useful applications, the iPhone would be nice, but not what it is today.

Steve Jobs Announcing the Original iPhone in 2007

Now, I find it hard to imagine that there’s anyone debating me on that last point, but what is necessary to recognize is that finding killer apps is actually 100x more important for AR than it was for the iPhone. Why? Because no one wants to wear a thing on their face that is going to make them look a little nerdy at best or downright stupid at worst. If there was no such thing as an app store, the iPhone would still be a sleek looking cell phone, which people would want to carry around. Without access to apps that significantly improve people’s lives, an AR headset is merely a toy and one that might lead to social ridicule. No one will want to carry that around, let alone wear it. AR headsets will eventually reach normal eye glasses or contact lens form, but in the meantime, AR headsets have to be so useful that people are willing to wear them on their faces.

Take a look at the chart I made above. Of course, there are many different factors that contribute to product sales (including price for one), but in very simplified terms people look at how useful a product will be for them and how it will be perceived by others. Depending on your preferences, you may care about one of those factors more than the other. For example, a construction worker will care much more about a helmet’s usefulness in protecting his head than he will about whether the other construction workers think it looks cool. Conversely, a teenage boy may care more that his ripped skinny jeans look good than that they are actually comfortable to wear.

Ultimately, a product needs to be both useful and cool if it is going to appeal to the majority of people. If it is only one of those two things (useful or cool), then only a specific set of people will use it. Right now, true AR, is transitioning from the bottom left box to the bottom right box. Although it maintains a bulky form factor, it is becoming useful for a subset of specific people. Some elevator repairmen use the HoloLens and some factory workers use the Daqri smart helmet. If that’s all AR ever becomes, a tool for specific industries, it will still be a transformational technology worth billions of dollars for some companies.

Microsoft HoloLens Used for Elevator Repair

But many of us envision AR as much more than that. We see it as a true melding of the physical and digital worlds, with the potential to improve the lives of billions of people. But as I mentioned previously, this future will take time to actualize. Field of view needs to double, battery life needs to triple, component size needs to be cut by a third. While Microsoft has plenty in the bank to continue losing money on the HoloLens for years, Magic Leap has a limited amount of time before they run out of cash or investors expect returns. If Magic Leap is to succeed in the time period before form factor is truly miniaturized (which they must), they are going to have to offer irresistible applications.

At some point, if the product is so far to the right in the chart above, the bar for social acceptance becomes lower. If Magic Leap can create apps that people feel incomplete without, like Google Maps or Uber on our phones, then people won’t care if their headset makes them look a little out of the ordinary. If Magic Leap doesn’t find that AR app that creates similar amonts of value, most people won’t buy their headsets. It’s as simple as that.

I, in no way, have written off Magic Leap. In fact, I would stil bet that they are one of the leaders in AR 10 years from now. But I do think that success is predicated upon them finding at least one game changing app. While they make that final push to ready their consumer device, I just also hope they are thinking enough about what everyday people will actually want to use it for.