BEFORE the season if you had to pick just one team to make finals, it might have been Sydney.

Now a stunning Swan dive looks set to cause them to miss September for the first time since 2009.

There are four rounds left in the home and away season, so we need to look at how every team is shaping up.

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Finals Week 1

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw and which clubs could be in trouble based on a tough last month?

Here’s what we think will happen.

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES

First Qualifying Final (1 v 4): Richmond v GWS Giants

First Elimination Final (5 v 8): Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Second Elimination Final (6 v 7): Geelong Cats v Hawthorn

Second Qualifying Final (2 v 3): West Coast Eagles v Collingwood

PROJECTED LADDER

Every team’s run home is analysed below. They are listed in their current ladder order.

THE CONTENDERS

1. Richmond (14-4, 137.8%)

Remaining games: Geelong Cats at MCG, Gold Coast Suns at MS, Essendon at MCG, Western Bulldogs at MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 17th-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 89.5, one top 8 opponent, one game out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record (1994-2016): 100%

THE minor premiership is essentially secured for this Richmond side, thanks to losses for West Coast and Collingwood in Round 19. The latter was of course inflicted by the Tigers in their now-traditional run-away-in-the-fourth-quarter style. A lead of a game and percentage should be easily enough to stay above the Eagles. While Geelong challenged Richmond as much as anyone has at the MCG earlier this year, we’re still tipping the reigning premiers, and Essendon may be in form now but let’s remember how comprehensively the Tigers smashed them in Dreamtime at the ‘G. The most interesting part of Richmond’s home and away season from here is who they face in week one of the finals. You’d happily pick them against Port, but GWS or Melbourne could provide a bit of a test if they make the top four - the Giants being in such good form recently and the Demons having the potential, at their best, to challenge almost anyone.

Fox Footy’s projection: Four wins, finishing 18-4 (first on percentage)

2. West Coast Eagles (13-5, 121.3%)

Remaining games: Fremantle at OS, Port Adelaide at AO, Melbourne at OS, Brisbane Lions at Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 103.43, two top 8 opponents, two games out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 100%

MAYBE North Melbourne would have won anyway, but the swing from a West Coast side with Josh Kennedy and Luke Shuey to one without them can’t be understated. Per the AFL Player Ratings’ measure of team quality, West Coast’s selected side for Sunday was not one of the best eight in the AFL. Admittedly, it was still measured as better than North. But the point is that we shouldn’t be too worried about the Eagles based on this past weekend’s loss. Well, maybe a little worried - simply because the risk remains that they’ll drop into third and an away qualifying final. They have a reasonably tough last month - when your easiest game is either the Derby or the resurgent Lions in Brisbane, you’re in a little bit of strife. And Collingwood’s draw is probably easier. If the Pies get past Sydney this weekend, you’d tip them to reach 16 wins by season’s end; West Coast then can’t afford a slip-up, or else they’d risk dropping below them.

Fox Footy’s projection: Four wins, finishing 17-5 (second)

3. Collingwood (12-6, 118.1%)

Remaining games: Sydney Swans at SCG, Brisbane Lions at ES, Port Adelaide at MCG, Fremantle at OS

Remaining fixture difficulty: 14th-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 99.08, one top 8 opponent, two games out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 100%

FOR the second time this season, it feels like we’ve come out of a game where Collingwood lost to Richmond with more belief in the Magpies than we had before the game. It was a valiant effort, and with Sydney and Port Adelaide continuing to be unimpressive, you’d favour this Pies side to win all four games left on its fixture. We do need to sound some warnings though. Collingwood is actually only a game and 8.2 per cent above the ninth-placed Swans - it’s crazy how tight this ladder is - so they can’t afford a sudden drop in form. A loss to Sydney this week could see the Pies very realistically drop to seventh or eighth, although still with a strong chance of returning to the top four. And then there are the injuries. It’s fair to ask whether this team could have contended for the flag if it hadn’t suffered such a horror run of them - certainly their chances would be improved, although we probably still wouldn’t tip it. That’s sort of how sports go, though; usually the best teams in any given season, in any code, are lucky with injuries. That’s where depth comes in, and the Pies have shown they have quite a bit of it in 2018.

Fox Footy’s projection: Four wins, finishing 16-6 (third)

4. Port Adelaide (12-6, 116.2%)

Remaining games: Adelaide Crows at AO, West Coast Eagles at AO, Collingwood at MCG, Essendon at AO

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 110.13, two top 8 opponents, one game out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 100%

THE Power aren’t out of the woods, even with that 100% sitting right above this paragraph. Last week, we were predicting Port Adelaide to be the first team to miss finals from 12-6, given we expected them to beat the Western Bulldogs, as they did. But Sydney’s upset loss to Essendon means the Swans are now below Port in the pecking order. The Power need at least one win from here, but none of their games are easy at all. The Showdown is a big chance, although we like how the Crows have been playing recently. West Coast should be better than it showed on Sunday in a couple of weeks’ time - injuries should have less of an impact. Collingwood should be favourites at the MCG. And then there’s Essendon, who could decide the top eight. For now it looks like they have knocked Sydney out of September; the result in Round 23 could still see Port out and the Swans back in. The game being at the Adelaide Oval might be enough for the Power.

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 13-9 (eighth on percentage)

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5. GWS Giants (11-6-1, 113.6%)

Remaining games: Carlton at ES, Adelaide Crows at UNSW, Sydney Swans at Spotless, Melbourne at MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 99.5, one top 8 opponent, two games out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: N/A due to draw (100% from 12-6, 90.6% from 11-7)

SATURDAY’s win over St Kilda wasn’t as impressive as some of GWS’ other recent results, but it means Leon Cameron’s side has now won seven of its last eight, losing only to West Coast in Perth. We sometimes overstate the idea of momentum, or needing to have great form leading up to September - having great form IN September is a different thing entirely and much more important. But the Giants are inarguably playing well at a crucial time of year, which is worthy of praise. They should beat Carlton, aka The Home For GWS Misfits, this week and move to 12 and a half wins. From there one more will secure them a September place. They can still reach as high as third, you’d think, if Collingwood slips up; we’re still saying fourth is most likely especially with only a wobbly Port now blocking them from the double chance.

Fox Footy’s projection: Three wins, finishing 14-7-1 (fourth)

6. Melbourne (11-7, 127.3%)

Remaining games: Gold Coast Suns at MCG, Sydney Swans at MCG, West Coast Eagles at OS, GWS Giants at MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 102.38, two top 8 opponents, one game out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 90.6%

BECAUSE Adelaide isn’t actually in the top eight, Melbourne doubters can still derisively point to the team’s winless record against sides in the finals places. But a win over a Crows side that is better than its record suggests, in Adelaide, is still very good. And it was crucial, because now Melbourne looks very likely to be at 12 wins before the defining three weeks of their season. Let’s assume they’ll beat Gold Coast - Carlton did, after all. At that point, the entire year might come down to Round 21’s clash with Sydney, which is probably the easiest game of the Dees’ last three. The Swans’ form fade has come at an ideal time for Simon Goodwin’s side. Win that game, and that’s 13, with a very good percentage. That should almost certainly be enough for finals footy. It’s close, guys and girls.

Fox Footy’s projection: Three wins, finishing 14-8 (fifth on percentage)

7. Hawthorn (11-7, 122.7%)

Remaining games: Essendon at MCG, Geelong Cats at MCG, St Kilda at ES, Sydney Swans at SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 11th-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 102.18, one top 8 opponent, one game out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 90.6%

HAWTHORN would have had mixed emotions during Essendon’s Friday night win over Sydney. The positive is of course that the Hawks are now above the Swans on the ladder; and if you look at Sydney’s run home, there’s every chance that stays that way. The negative is the Hawks play the Bombers this week, and the latter is in some pretty solid form right now. We’ve been picking Hawthorn to finish on 13 wins for a little while now, and part of that was banking on wins against Essendon and St Kilda (that’s not to say that the Hawks can’t beat Geelong or Sydney, especially the latter now, just that they were less likely things to happen). You can’t bank on beating the Bombers at this point, and so suddenly this is a crucial fixture for Hawthorn’s season. Win and the path to September remains pretty clear. Lose and suddenly they would probably need to beat one of their recent rivals to play finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: Two wins, finishing 13-9 (seventh on percentage)

8. Geelong Cats (11-7, 120.3%)

Remaining games: Richmond at MCG, Hawthorn at MCG, Fremantle at GMHBA, Gold Coast Suns at GMHBA

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 101.38, two top 8 opponents, no games out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 90.6%

FOR a while there, it looked like Geelong was set for a very scary last month of the season. Brisbane took it to the Cats for quite a bit of their clash on Saturday, yet Geelong prevailed thanks to the continued All-Australian form of Tom Hawkins. You can now split the Cats’ remaining four games into two blocks. In the latter block, home games against Fremantle and Gold Coast, they really shouldn’t lose. If Geelong can’t get to 13 wins based on those two fixtures, they probably don’t deserve to play finals anyway. The former block is more interesting. We wouldn’t tip Geelong to beat Richmond, but they’re as good a chance as anyone right now. If they do, suddenly the Cats are a flag contender. The Hawthorn game should determine seeding for both sides, and could cost one of them finals if they slip up elsewhere too. And obviously it’ll be close, because it’s a Geelong v Hawthorn game, and legally those teams are required to have the result in the balance late in the fourth quarter. Did you not hear about Parliament passing that bill?

Fox Footy’s projection: Three wins, finishing 14-8 (Sixth on percentage)

9. Sydney Swans (11-7, 109.9%)

Remaining games: Collingwood at SCG, Melbourne at MCG, GWS Giants at Spotless, Hawthorn at SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest (opponents’ average percentage 120.43, four top 8 opponents, one game out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 90.6%

WE saw last week that 97% of 11-6 teams, from 1994 to 2016, played finals. We thought that Port Adelaide would join the 3% in 2018; now it appears it could be Sydney. It’s not as if losing to Essendon is a major disappointment in itself; the Bombers are playing very good footy at the moment. But it was probably the Swans’ easiest game left on the fixture - either that or Hawthorn in Round 23. And they lost. And now Sydney simply must win two of its last four, at a bare minimum, to make the eight. Their percentage is the worst of the top ten and their remaining draw is the hardest in the competition. We’ve said a few times this season that we think most believe in Sydney simply because they’re Sydney. They have an aura. They have Buddy. They’ve earned our respect. But respect doesn’t make it easy to beat two or three top eight sides in a month, and that’s what Sydney has to do right now. This is happening, people. Are they even allowed to put on a finals series without the Swans? Has anyone checked the AFL by-laws on that?

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 12-10 (10th on percentage)

10. North Melbourne (10-8, 110.6%)

Remaining games: Brisbane Lions at Gabba, Western Bulldogs at ES, Adelaide Crows at AO, St Kilda at ES

Remaining fixture difficulty: 18th-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 83.53, no top 8 opponents, two games out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 81.1%

SUNDAY’s win over West Coast means North Melbourne is well and truly still in the finals race. After all, they’re on 10 wins and play the easiest fixture of any team to end the season. But we’re not yet believers. They did very well to win at their Hobart fortress but that wasn’t West Coast at its best. Plus, we think the Roos’ two remaining interstate trips could result in losses - and even if they only drop one game from here, that might be too much. Brisbane is a tough task at the Gabba and Adelaide should be even tougher than that in Adelaide. But North can easily prove us wrong. All they have to do is beat the teams below them and a finals spot is theirs - they’re not missing on 14 wins without some ridiculous set of circumstances. That may not show they’re actually a threat in September, but getting there would obviously be a massive accomplishment for a team many picked to claim the wooden spoon.

Fox Footy’s projection: Two wins, finishing 12-10 (ninth on percentage)

11. Essendon (10-8, 102.8%)

Remaining games: Hawthorn at MCG, St Kilda at ES, Richmond at MCG, Port Adelaide at AO

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 113.1, three top 8 opponents, one game out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 81.1%

CAN we pump the brakes a little bit on the Essendon train? (As someone who used to live on the Craigieburn line, we know that’s possible.) Yes, the Bombers’ season is still alive, but they’re still a win and a massive amount of percentage out of the top eight. Even getting to 13 wins might not be enough for this team to play finals, because of its percentage, and to get to 13 wins they have to beat at least two current top eight sides. Hawthorn, St Kilda and Port Adelaide (even in Adelaide) are all winnable games for the Bombers, yes. Their best hope is one of Hawthorn, Melbourne or Geelong - the first two seem most likely - collapsing and only finishing with 12 wins. That’s possible. But the Essendon finals case relies on quite a few stars aligning. Probably a few too many.

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 11-11 (12th)

12. Adelaide Crows (9-9, 98.3%)

Remaining games: Port Adelaide at AO, GWS Giants at UNSW, North Melbourne at AO, Carlton at ES

Remaining fixture difficulty: 10th-hardest (opponents’ average percentage 100.73, two top 8 opponents, two games out of home state)

Percentage of teams making top 8 from current record: 31.6%

LOSING to Melbourne likely eliminates Adelaide from finals contention, because as discussed above with Essendon, 13 wins and a not-very-good percentage looks unlikely to be enough for a finals place. The Crows can certainly get to 13 wins, although you’d think they’d lose at least one of their next two - we think they drop the game in Canberra to GWS. If they win those two games, and Melbourne, Hawthorn or Geelong start dropping games they shouldn’t, we can re-evaluate. As it is, we can’t see the Crows making it.

Fox Footy’s projection: Three wins, finishing 12-10 (11th on percentage)

ELIMINATED

(Fremantle is mathematically alive but would need to win all four games and see Geelong/Hawthorn/Melbourne lose all four and give up a percentage gap of more than 40. They're done.)

13. Fremantle (7-11, 80.3%)

Remaining games: West Coast Eagles at OS, Carlton at OS, Geelong Cats at GMHBA, Collingwood at OS

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 8-14 (13th)

14. Western Bulldogs (5-13, 70.2%)

Remaining games: St Kilda at ES, North Melbourne at ES, Carlton at ES, Richmond at MCG

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 6-16 (15th on percentage)

15. St Kilda (4-13-1, 75.7%)

Remaining games: Western Bulldogs at ES, Essendon at ES, Hawthorn at ES, North Melbourne at ES

Fox Footy’s projection: One win, finishing 5-16-1 (16th)

16. Brisbane Lions (4-14, 89.8%)

Remaining games: North Melbourne at Gabba, Collingwood at ES, Gold Coast Suns at MS, West Coast Eagles at Gabba

Fox Footy’s projection: Two wins, finishing 6-16 (14th on percentage)

17. Gold Coast Suns (4-14, 64.7%)

Remaining games: Melbourne at MCG, Richmond at MS, Brisbane Lions at MS, Geelong Cats at GMHBA

Fox Footy’s projection: No wins, finishing 4-18 (17th)

18. Carlton (2-16, 62.5%)

Remaining games: GWS Giants at ES, Fremantle at OS, Western Bulldogs at ES, Adelaide Crows at ES

Fox Footy’s projection: No wins, finishing 2-20 (18th)