Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) for all practical purposes is now out of the mainstream politics, some because of its own flaws and style of politics, others due to the change in the mindset of the ruling elite towards urban Sindh, which for almost 25 years has voted for one single party as its sole representative. Will it pay off or prove counterproductive, is the key question.

Exit of once the most power governor of Sindh, Dr Ishratul Ibad, after 14 years, would also switch the power balance and now the PPP-led Sindh government is all powerful, though the ruling PML-N is trying to use Governor's Office for its future politics.

PML Senator Nihal Hashmi perhaps made the statement in haste and exposed the game-plan much before new Governor Sindh Justice (retd) Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui had even started his new assignment.

If Mr Hashmi has any sense of 'Muhajir' political dynamic, he would not have made such a statement as it would not go against Altaf Hussain but in his favour. Perhaps, that is why the federal government immediately distanced itself from his damaging statement.

While both PML and PPP, beside the establishment, apparently appear on one page in keeping the MQM out of the mainstream politics, it all depends on the policies to follow particularly towards Karachi and Hyderabad.

Can PPP be able to capitalise the situation in its favour or PML-N would try to use some of the Centre-based projects to gain politically in Karachi. However, the city issue is not merely development but of political ownership, which despite factions in the MQM revolved around 'Muhajir factor’.

Some of the decisions taken by the Sindh government in the last three years to curtail the powers of the local governments and marginalise the authority of the mayor may not help in defusing the ethnic polarization, rather it will increase the sense of deprivation.

But, a section of the ruling elite believes that the purpose for which Muhajir politics was encouraged and backed is almost over. The PPP is no more a challenging force in the national electoral politics nor Jamaat-e-Islami has any relevance in Karachi's context.

Thus, they feel that in all probabilities, Karachi may not vote for one party and it may have a divided mandate in the next general elections. The new narrative, which some powerful lobbies are trying to build as 'minus-MQM' formula, as a solution or alternative to ethnic politics, may aggravate the problem and prove counterproductive.

Former governor Sindh Dr Ishratul Ibad was perhaps the last powerful governor, and the one with some MQM background despite been ousted by the party about a year back. He has now reportedly left for Dubai, after meeting President Mamnoon Hussain and also held a meeting with Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah. The action has so far kept everyone guessing about the real cause of the change.

He was considered as the bridge between the establishment and urban Sindh, but lost his relevance after August 22, which led to another faction in the MQM, which once was united force of urban Sindh.

Who will fill this vacuum and how? Appointment of former chief justice of Pakistan Justice Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui has its own significance, but it has practically revived the Constitutional role of the governor. On the one hand, it has also brought an end to the formula evolved by former president General (retd) Pervez Musharraf to keep some power balance between the rural and urban Sindh.

MQM's 'love and hate' relationship with the establishment and successive government continued till finally it was decided after 2013 elections not to make MQM part of any coalition, either at the Centre or in Sindh.

Its not only Dr Ishratul Ibad, who had lost his relevance but also the MQM, as PML-N government has decided not to disturb any opposition governments in any province after forming the federal government without any hue and cry.

In Sindh, the PPP, which has always been in comfortable position also decided not to include MQM in the government while in the absence of any local governments till elections were held early this year, the MQM was practically kept out of mainstream politics. After split within the MQM, it also lost its political clout and Karachi targeted action hit them hard.

On the other hand, the PPP-led Sindh government, instead of trying to make inroads into the MQM strong constituencies, is taking measures which can prove counterproductive. Late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had done a lot for Karachi and perhaps was the last PPP leader who had addressed a public meeting in Liaquatabad, when he had inaugurated its Super Market, but the then opposition to Sindhi Language Bill, led by Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan, led to clear polarization of rural-urban divided, which later resulted in the formation of MQM.

Sindh government's move like marginalizing powers of the local governments and mayor Karachi, freezing of all accounts of local government departments with instructions to transfer these to the Sindh Bank, converting Karachi Building Authority into Sindh Building Authorities and some other similar actions, may not help either the PPP or the Sindh government. It would rather increase a sense of deprivation.

It appears that in the three-prone strategy, we may see the divided political mandate of urban Sindh while the PPP would further strengthen its position in rural Sindh, as none of the other national parties like Pakistan Muslim League or Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf stand any chance of even causing any dent, attempts are being made to ensure Karachi and Hyderabad would not vote en bloc.

Karachi targeted action has almost broken the backbone of the alleged MQM militancy in a much more organised operation than the one conducted in 1995. Secondly, fractions within the MQM were not only encouraged but at some level allegedly planned. They now clearly stand divided in three main factions, MQM, Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP) and MQM-Pakistan. The third move would be to ensure Karachi as a 'divided house’.

If population census, followed by delimitation of constituencies, was held in March or April 2017, one may not be surprised if Muhajirs would be in minority in the economic hub of Pakistan.

The MQM in the past once lost seven out of 20 seats in Karachi, during the MMA wave in 2002 elections but boons back in 2008 elections. In 2013 elections it almost retained its seats but the PTI made its presence felt. Unfortunately, it could not consolidated its position and eight lakh votes it got and now hope for its revival through an anti-MQM alliance, which certain quarters are working on before the next polls.

The MQM inflicted a major injury on itself when its London leadership and founder, Altaf Hussain, while ignoring ground realities, laid the foundation of another faction after his May 19, 2013 speech against party's own leadership. It later transformed into the formation of PSP, led by once party's strong faces like former city nazim Mustafa Kamal and Anish Qaimkhani.

The MQM could not recover but its leadership further committed mistake after mistake and badly misunderstood Karachi operation. Former governor Dr Ishratul Ibad was perhaps the last bridge between the MQM and the establishment. When the party distanced itself and ignored his advice and a warning from the establishment to Altaf Hussain, and paid a heavy price.

It is difficult to predict the possible electoral division in Karachi and urban Sindh, but it is most unlikely that we may be able to see a clear sole representative of Karachi. Will this vote go to the 'national parties' like PPP, PML-N or the PTI or will it be shared by ethnic and religious parties, is yet to be seen.

MQM founder Altaf Hussain may be 'down' but not completely out as yet and could still play a role at the time of next general elections but it all depends on how the ruling elite reshapes Sindh's politics and which way 'Muhajir' voters would go or decide to stay at home.

What he and others MQM factions need to realise is the fact that they are now being out of mainstream politics and have become victim of their own style of politics as well to the game plan of the ruling elite. The consequence of this outcome may not be good to this cultural, literary and politically rich province.

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang