OVER the past few summers—when the paths are clear and the seas calm—Syria has churned out high numbers of migrants and refugees. But this year has seen the greatest outflow yet. The latest UN figures obtained by this newspaper (as yet unpublished) show that Syria’s population has shrunk to just 16.6m, down from a pre-war level of around 22m. With 4m UN-registered refugees abroad, at least 1m more unregistered and 7m internally displaced people, more than half the country’s population has been forced to move. UN officials think the number could be significantly higher than that, since estimates of the pre-war population vary widely. One indicator of this is satellite images of night-time electric-light intensity (evidence of human activity) which has fallen over 80% since the start of the war. Up to 250,000 people have died over the same period.

Those leaving cite several motives for moving now. Syria’s war is intensifying: the number of armed incidents rose from 4,000 in January to 6,000 in August, according to a data agency with scores of monitors on the ground. Some are fleeing Islamic State (IS) though many more are leaving from rebel-held areas that are being attacked by President Bashar Assad’s regime. Yet none of the four main countries hosting Syria’s registered refugees—Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq—recognises them as such. This means that they are unable to work legally. And by their own accounts, hostility towards them is rising. Small wonder Europe seems a more welcoming prospect.

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