The costs of leaving the EU are much milder than scaremongerers suggest

It’s in the overwhelming interests of both the UK and EU that Brexit is carefully managed, accompanied by a transition period and a free trade agreement. But the terms of our departure will not make or break our economic destiny.

The company I work for, Next, is one of the UK’s largest traders. We move over £4 billion of stock around the globe and cross most of the world’s customs borders. We have taken steps to ensure we have the administrative systems and legal structures needed to allow the business to continue to run smoothly – deal or no deal.

We have set up bonded warehouses, which allow us to defer customs payments until goods are distributed to shops and customers. That means goods can move across customs borders and between bonded facilities, without incurring duties.

Our preparations mean there will be little or no direct impact on our trading operations or costs, even from no deal Brexit. But there are two caveats. First, tariffs on EU imports represent a real threat to consumer costs.

In November, I hope Philip Hammond will confirm that Brexit will not be used as an excuse to raise customs revenues. This would deliver business certainty and allow consumers to breathe a sigh of relief. Rebalancing tariffs, using the increased revenues from EU goods to reduce overall tariff rates, would ensure consumers are no worse off.

Second, disruption at our ports is the single biggest threat Brexit poses to our economy. It is mitigable and government should be tackling this challenge with vigour. There is a superstitious reluctance to earnestly prepare for no deal. It is as if officials fear that, by preparing for it, they might somehow make no deal happen.

The measures mooted at present to keep ports moving are essentially trying to perform today’s procedures in greater volume. Instead, the Government needs to reform customs procedures, removing work our ports that could be done elsewhere.

Unlike the collection of customs at ports, VAT is not collected by officials standing at our tills. We pay VAT through monthly self-assessment and Government trusts business to collect £125 billion in this way. Surely we can collect £3.5 billion of customs revenue in the same way? This innovation, along with other measures, could radically alleviate pressure on ports.