Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin meet on Saturday in Vegas (Picture: Getty Images)

Rarely are boxing fans treated to a true 50-50 contest at the highest level, but it really feels like Gennady Golovkin vs Saul Alvarez this weekend is completely in the balance.

This middleweight scrap has been talked about for years, and it has been loudly called for over the last two. It has been a frustrating wait for fight fans, but GGG and Canelo look to have come together at the perfect moment in terms of it being a truly level contest.

Forget Floyd Mayweather v Conor McGregor: Gennady Golovkin v Saul Canelo Alvarez is the real fight of the decade

Of course, this is more of a positive for the Mexican than it is for the Kazakh. Any time up until the last 12 months, Golovkin would be going into this bout as the runaway favourite, but things have changed recently.



GGG has looked more vulnerable in his last two fights than he ever has before, whilst Canelo has appeared to be improving. Golovkin may be just past his peak at 35-years-old, Alvarez may well be right at his zenith at 27.


It could scarcely be a more intriguing and appealing contest, and here are three possible outcomes for the mega-fight in Las Vegas.

Gennady Golovkin has knocked out 33 opponents (Picture: Getty Images)

Golovkin via knockout

Much has been made of GGG not being able to stop his last opponent, but let’s not forget he stopped his 23 previous foes. Danny Jacobs may be the freshest in people’s minds, but he could well be an anomaly, not a change to a long-standing pattern.

Golovkin carries crippling power in both hands and his range of methods to stop an opponent is incredible.

He can do terribly damage to the body or head with single shots, as he showed against Matthew Macklin and Marco Antonio Rubio respectively. The latter with a unique overhand left to the top of the head which demonstrated his superb arsenal.

He can wear opponents down with his sustained power attack, as he did to Martin Murray, or he can simply break bones in a man’s face, as he did to Kell Brook.

GGG has frightening power in his right and left hands (Picture: Getty)

Jacobs may have avoided the fate of an early night, but you can never rule out the possibility of a Golovkin knockout. He has finished off 33 of 37 opponents within the distance, and although Canelo has never been stopped, he could easily be number 34.

In this case, a late stoppage seems more likely than one in the early rounds. GGG will be cautious early on as he respects Canelo’s power and because of the huge stage he is competing on.

He will plan to use his superb jab to keep control of the Mexican, frustrating him and opening up gaps later on as Canelo makes mistakes. It often only takes one shot from GGG and it is all over.

Saul Canelo Alvarez is heavy-handed, but his knockouts have largely come against smaller men (Picture: Getty Images)

Canelo via points

If Alvarez is going to win it looks likely to be thanks to the judges’ scorecards.

With 34 knockouts from 49 wins he is hardly short of knockout power, but against a bigger man with an iron chin, Canelo will likely have to take this the distance to pick up the win.



In truth, the majority of Canelo’s knockouts came against smaller opponents nowhere near the standard of Golovkin. His last 11 fights have been against high calibre opposition, and he has stopped just five of them, losing once to Floyd Mayweather.

This weekend he fights a bigger man in GGG and he was not capable of stopping a bigger man in Julio Cesar Chavez last time out, despite being the better boxer by an enormous margin.

Alvarez can win on points, though, and has a good chance of doing so.

Canelo Alvarez is an excellent body puncher (Picture: Getty Images)

His chances are based around avoiding the Golovkin jab. If he can slip that shot, get inside it, move his feet well (which isn’t necessarily his strongest suit) then he can get inside and work – throwing uppercuts and body shots, both of which he is exceptional at.

If he can do this consistently then he should be able to tire the older man down and come on strong in the late rounds. With the crowd likely to be in his favour and roaring him on, the judges could well be swayed towards him.

Canelo has had favourable scorecards in Vegas before, specifically against Austin Trout and Eris-landy Lara, and even in defeat to Mayweather he was incredibly awarded a draw on one card.

The judges like him there, and a close fight is more likely to swing his way.

Could Canelo vs GGG end level? (Picture: Getty Images)

Draw

Never a likely outcome, but the draw is certainly not out of the question this Saturday, as the rela-tively short odds of 20/1 suggest.


Canelo will follow the Jacobs blueprint and try and frustrate Golovkin, making himself difficult to land clean on and keeping away from that terrifying right hand as much as possible.

The Mexican is always capable of some very eye-catching punches and chooses them extremely well, so the judges will like what they see from him, at least in spells.

In Golovkin’s favour is his punch output which is much higher than Canelo’s and with his come-forward style, which will cut off the ring and see him throw a lot of jabs, he could well attract the judges’ attention.

It is also hard to see Golovkin making some sort of impact with his outrageous power. Jacobs avoided a knockout but he was put down in their fight and that is a crucial 10-8 round in the Kazakh’s favour if he can do the same in Vegas.

However, as mentioned, there may just be a slight leaning towards the Mexican in Sin City, which could redress the balance.

It could be exciting, it could be controversial, it could be a draw.

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