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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ATHENS 001505 SIPDIS EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2014 TAGS: PREL, PARM, MARR, GR, TU, TURKEY SUBJECT: CONTINUED GREEK ANGST, BUT POSITIVE NUMBERS ON AEGEAN AIRSPACE ISSUES REF: ANKARA 2891 Classified By: Amb. Charles P. Ries. Reasons 1.4(b/d) 1. (C) Summary. Senior Greek officials continue to express concern about the level of Turkish air activity in the Aegean. At the same time, statistics recently released by the MOD paint a more positive picture of the actual situation in the region. Greek officials insist that, the content and tone of this briefing notwithstanding, there has been no change in Athens, Aegean policy. Nevertheless, we intend to capitalize on this relatively good news to urge the Greeks to break out of the Aegean stalemate. End summary. FM Focussed on Quantity, Not Quality ------------------------------------ 2. (C) Reviewing the PM's May 20 meeting with the President, FM Molyviatis reiterated to Ambassador May 25 the Greek argument that high Turkish sortie rates in the Aegean made it increasingly difficult for the Greek government to defend its cooperation with Turkey in other areas, including the EU. Molyviatis emphasized that Turkey did not need to send 40 aircraft a day across the disputed airspace to make its political point; they could, he insisted, send one flight a week and accomplish the same purpose. If the Turks pursued a less inflammatory policy in the Aegean, he suggested, there would be much more sympathy for Turkey in Greece. 3. (C) Ambassador questioned whether Greece drew a fine enough distinction between Turkish airspace violations and Turkish non-notifications of the FIR, reminding Molyviatis that the U.S. did not file FIR notifications either. It was important for Greece to be on solid ground when it reckoned up the number of "violations." Molyviatis acknowledged that there was a legal difference between violations of the six-mile limit versus FIR notifications. He admitted that the Greek nouns for "violation" ("paraviasi," used for intrusions into national airspace) and "infringement" ("paravasi," used for flights in the Athens FIR) are nearly indistinguishable, even to Greeks. Ambassador suggested Greek credibility with partners would be helped if they made an issue only of Turkish violations with six nautical miles of Greek territory, where the numbers are much smaller and international law is clearer. MOD Statistics Paint a (Relatively) Positive Picture --------------------------------------------- ------- 4. (SBU) Meanwhile, two prominent pro-government newspapers reported on a Ministry of Defense briefing on Turkish air activity in the Aegean that was given to journalists accompanying MOD Spiliotopoulos on his May 30 visit to the Greek air operations center in Larisa. Despite negative headlines (e.g., &Confrontation in the Aegean8 and &Provocations by the Numbers8), the content of the articles was strikingly positive. Both articles avoided the word "infringement" (paravasi) when discussing Turkish flights in the Athens FIR, using instead the more neutral term "incoming aircraft" (eiselthonda aeroskafi). (Asked about this apparent effort to tone down the rhetoric, MOD staffers insisted that the tone of the articles was the result of editorial decisions and not a change or softening of the government's stance.) Additionally, by breaking down statistics on Turkish violations of Greek airspace into two categories -- flights within 6 nautical miles of Greek territory and those that penetrated to between 6 and 10 nautical miles -- the MOD briefing tacitly accepted the fact that the Greek definition of its national airspace is disputed. Finally, the MOD briefing compared 2005 figures with those from 2003 (i.e., discounting statistics from 2004, when Turkey reduced its Aegean profile as an Olympic goodwill gesture), revealing what even officials at MOD and MFA admitted was a positive trend. 5. (C) The Greek MOD figures claim there were 1625 Turkish violations of Greek airspace during the first five months of 2003; the figure for the corresponding period in 2005 was 830. Equally significant, the Greek figures show that the majority -- almost 60 percent -- of reported violations in 2005 occurred between six and ten nautical miles from Greek territory (i.e., beyond what Turkey and most other countries recognize as Greek airspace). This marks a signficant change from 2003, when the Greeks claimed that 75 percent of Turkish aircraft that violated Greek airspace flew within 6 nautical miles of Greek territory. The MOD figures also show a remarkable decline in the number of "mock dogfights" between Greek and Turkish jets over the Aegean. According to Greek statistics, in the first five months of 2003, Greek and Turkish jets were involved in 593 mock dogfights; in Jan-May 2005 this had dropped by 80 percent, to 106. In a briefing for journalists, MOD officials credited this drop to a decision by the Turkish General Staff to order its pilots to be cautious and avoid potential accidents. Turks Sending the Same Message in Athens, Ankara --------------------------------------------- --- 6. (C) Turkish embassy political officer Hakkan Abaci gave poloff the same message as the one reported reftel. The Turkish government genuinely wanted to solve Aegean issues with Greece, he said, but was frustrated that its decision to notify NATO (and thus, effectively, Greece) of flights in the Athens FIR had yielded no positive response from Greece. Instead, the Greek Air Force used the information to intercept Turkish jets and the Greek government continued to attack these "FIR infringements" in the media and in discussions with other countries. Ankara was still mulling this policy change, Abaci emphasized, and had not discussed the matter with Greece. When pressed, Abaci (who will take over the Aegean air/sea portfolio at the Turkish MFA this fall) said he was not suggesting that the United States play a role in Aegean airspace issues or inform the Greek government of the possible change in Turkish policy. Poloff commented that a change in Turkish notification policy would cede the high ground Ankara currently had on the subject and undermine Turkey's stated goal of resolving Aegean issues. Asked whether the tone of the news coverage of Defense Minister Spiliotopoulos's trip to Larisa would help, Abaci said Ankara would undoubtedly first wait to see if a pattern developed. Comment ------- 7. (C) By raising Aegean issues with the President on May 20, PM Karamanlis has invited our comments on this longstanding dispute that diverts Greek military resources from more important NATO or coalition operations and which could, in the event of an accident during mock dogfights, lead to a crisis between two NATO Allies. In many ways, Greece has created the problem for iteslf by dramatizing the lack of FIR notice while pocketing the NATO flight plans. We will use the ammunition provided by these latest figures released by MOD to encourage the Greeks to ratchet down their rhetoric, focus on six-mile airspace violations, and look for ways to further Greece's long-term goal of improving ties with Turkey, rather than score short-term points in a no-win game. RIES