RGJ Poll: Biden remains Democrats' favorite in Nevada, but Sanders gaining

Former Vice President Joe Biden's long-standing lead in Nevada may be starting to evaporate, with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders now polling within a point of the frontrunner, according to a recent Suffolk University/Reno Gazette Journal survey.

Of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers surveyed in the poll released Tuesday, 19 percent indicated support for Biden and 18 percent supported Sanders, who overtook U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren for second place. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Warren saw the single greatest decline in support since the last RGJ poll in September, slipping from 19 percent to 11 percent.

As Warren's popularity dropped, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer each saw a surge of support among those polled. Both men jumped from 3 percent in the September poll to 8 percent in the most recent survey.

Buttigieg has been polling well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the states holding the first two nominating contests in the country. Steyer has been a ubiquitous advertiser in Nevada and has visited more than any other candidate, according to the Nevada Independent's candidate tracker.

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Tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar each polled at 4 percent. U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, who dropped out of the race Monday, polled at just 2 percent. Former U.S. Rep. John Delaney and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard garnered 1 percent, with former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick coming in with just 0.4 percent.

The Nevada caucus—the third nominating contest in the nation and first in the West — is Feb. 22. But according to the poll, more caucusgoers may take advantage of the party's early voting option rather than attend on caucus day. Sixty percent of those polled said they planned to early vote between Feb. 15-18.

With just under five weeks to go, Democratic caucusgoers have plenty of time to change their mind. In fact, nearly 45 percent of those polled said they could very well do just that before caucus day.

Rebecca Clark, 40, of Sparks, is one of those Democrats who said she might change her mind, saying anything can happen between now and caucus day. For example, she said she supported Biden until a blood vessel ruptured in his eye during a climate change debate. The incident left her concerned about his health.

"Things can change quickly," she said. "I was behind Biden and then that happened on live TV and I thought, 'Oh, great.'"

Clark now supports Buttigieg, saying the other candidates are either too old or idealistic for her liking. She wants someone who can beat Trump and who can see their proposed policies into reality.

Further complicating crystal ball prognostications, 22 percent of surveyed Democrats said they remain undecided in the race.

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Issues weighing heavily on Nevada caucusgoers' minds include health care, climate change and the economy, according to the poll.

Of those polled, 85 percent said it's important to them that the nominee support higher taxes on the very wealthy; 83 percent said it's important the nominee support Medicare-for-all; 75 percent said it's important the nominee support free higher education and 73 percent said it's important the nominee support the Green New Deal.

Although Democratic presidential candidates have visited the state more than 140 times, only 20 percent of Democrats polled said they have attended a candidate's event. But 75 percent said they plan to watch Tuesday's televised debate in Iowa.

Far more Democrats polled said they would rather see a nominee who can beat President Donald Trump than a nominee who reflects their priorities and values.

And in the days following the military attacks traded between Iran and the United States, 44 percent of Democrats surveyed said they opposed "powerful economic sanctions" against Iran.

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Anjeanette Damon is the government watchdog reporter for the RGJ. You can reach her at adamon@rgj.com or follow her on Twitter @AnjeanetteDamon. If you care about shining a bright light on decisions made by your elected officials, please consider subscribing to the Reno Gazette Journal.