Detroit Pistons: Solving the greatest 'What ifs' of the 2010s

Marlowe Alter | Detroit Free Press

Show Caption Hide Caption Crucial 'What if' moments of the decade in Detroit sports Our Detroit pro teams had plenty of “What if” moments in a mostly disastrous decade. Here are a few favorites for Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Lions.

If the 2000s were a “Decade of Dominance” for Detroit’s four pro sports teams — three of the four made their respective championships, and the Lions … well, they held onto the annual Thanksgiving game — then the 2010s were pretty much the complete opposite. Call it the “Decade of Despair,” if you will. (Or just another 10-year span, if you’re talking Lions).

For the first time since the 1970s, no Detroit pro team won a title, and the Tigers’ 2012 World Series trip — in which they scored six runs in a four-game sweep — was the lone championship appearance for the Big Four. (Indeed, the Red Wings were the only team to win a playoff game in the second half of the decade, and even they didn’t make it out of the first round during that span.)

As the close of the decade (mercifully) approaches, we here at the Freep figured that, rather than look back at the highlights and lowlights that were, we’d look at what COULD have been.

All four of Detroit’s pro teams had their “What if?” moments, turning points in a mostly disastrous decade. Here, then, is a look at our three favorites for the Pistons:

Read more greatest "What ifs" of the decade:

• The Ebron draft and more Lions unfortunate calls

• Letting Yzerman go and Red Wings free-agent blunders

• Tigers: The Big Papi slam and a trade that wasn't

July 10, 2013: What if the Pistons passed on Josh Smith?

What happened: In one of the worst NBA free-agent signings in recent memory, then-president of basketball operations Joe Dumars gave a four-year, $54 million contract to Josh Smith on July 10, 2013.

On merit, Smith was deserving of the deal going into his age-28 season. He filled up the box score, averaging 15.3 points, eight rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.3 steals in nine years with the Atlanta Hawks, morphing into an athletic two-way forward. His weakness was his shooting from anywhere besides near the rim, making him inefficient.

The Pistons already had two young big men in Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond — Monroe was playing out of position at power forward after playing center exclusively for two seasons before Drummond was drafted — so naturally they went after Smith, forming a gigantic, wacky front line of non-shooters. This forced Smith to play small forward. He had played at least 90% of his minutes at the “four” in four of the previous six seasons, according to Cleaning The Glass, but that didn’t deter Dumars.

Immediately, the signing was panned by some as a “terrible fit.” But even the naysayers couldn’t have predicted how awful it truly was.

Though Smith led the team in scoring at 16.4 points per game in his first season, the Pistons were a horrendous shooting team — 29th in 3-point shooting percentage, 27th in 3s made, worst in free-throw shooting — and the defense was bottom five. Smith shot 26.4% from beyond the arc while throwing up 3.4 3-point attempts per game, second most on the team.

The mismatched trio started 76 games together as the Pistons went 29-53. First-year coach Maurice Cheeks was fired at midseason. Dumars predictably lost his job after the season.

Twenty-eight games into his second season in Detroit, Smith was waived, and his contract was stretched by new president/coach Stan Van Gundy. The deal has counted $5.3 million against the team's salary cap for five years, and finally comes off the books this summer.

But what if ... the Pistons had a different plan that summer? They could have used the money earmarked for Smith to lure a true small forward in Andre Iguodala, who signed for $48 million over four years with Golden State, after he turned down more money elsewhere. Dumars acknowledged talking to Iguodala, but said Smith's "versatility" made him the top priority. "He's a 6-9, athletic forward who can play both positions and at both ends of the floor," Dumars said after the signing.

Perhaps if the Pistons had aggressively pursued Iguodala, they might have been able to snatch him. Just as athletic as Smith, Iguodala was a better perimeter defender, passer and shooter, and went on to win three NBA titles in five Finals appearances with Golden State as an elite role player. It probably wouldn't have been enough to save Dumars' job, but the Pistons would have been far better off for the future with Iguodala, a smart, unselfish, complementary player on a tradeable contract.

And if he was so consumed with adding Smith, Dumars could have had the foresight to trade one of his two young bigs. Dumars turned a blind eye to signs that the NBA was changing dramatically, with the explosion of 3-point shooting and quick pace negating the value of slow-footed big men who either couldn't shoot or defend. Monroe suddenly became a dinosaur, and now at 29 years old, is playing in Europe.

June 22, 2017: What if the Pistons drafted Donovan Mitchell?

What happened: The Pistons were deciding between two sophomore collegiate prospects when they were on the clock with the 12th overall pick in 2017: Luke Kennard or Donovan Mitchell.

Both were guards, but they were dissimilar players. Kennard was a sweet-shooting, crafty shooting guard out of Duke, billed as perhaps the draft’s best shooter. Detroit reportedly had him 12th on their draft board.

Mitchell, a charismatic combo guard, had a less consistent jumper but played tough defense, had a gigantic wingspan and was an incredible athlete out of Louisville, garnering Dwyane Wade comparisons. Detroit had him 13th on their board.

Mitchell thought he “aced the test” in a predraft workout with the Pistons.

But the Pistons, coming off a disappointing 37-45 season and one of the NBA's least prolific 3-point shooting teams, opted for the promise of better shooting and took Kennard — the opposite of their decision two years earlier when they took Stanley Johnson over Devin Booker. They got it wrong in both instances.

The determining factor for Van Gundy was Kennard’s collegiate body of work, which was better than Mitchell's.

At the time, it was widely thought the Pistons went with the safer pick in Kennard. Mitchell had more upside but perhaps a greater chance to flop without a defined skill to rely on.

Though Kennard is a nice player — he has taken a little leap this season, starting and averaging 15.8 points per game with 4.1 assists on 40% 3-point shooting — and probably a starter on a decent playoff team, Mitchell immediately blossomed. He averaged 20.5 points per game and carried the Utah Jazz to an upset playoff series win as a rookie with smooth ball-handling, luscious jumpers off the dribble and highlight-reel dunks.

The decision is part of the reason why Van Gundy is a TV analyst nowadays.

In Year 3, Mitchell is averaging 25.3 points per game and has made Utah a perennial playoff team in the tough Western Conference.

But what if ... the Pistons had taken Mitchell? It’s tough to say how quickly Mitchell would have developed in Detroit, since Utah was desperate for shot creation after the departure of Gordon Hayward that summer.

Perhaps Van Gundy still makes the trade for Avery Bradley a few weeks later, and Mitchell comes off the bench to begin with. Eventually his talent would have shown through. And December injuries to Bradley and Reggie Jackson would have opened the door for Mitchell to take the reins offensively and probably kept Van Gundy around for the final year of his contract.

The Pistons finally would have had the star they craved to drive them off the mediocrity treadmill, Van Gundy could have built his offense around a Mitchell-Drummond pick-and-roll, and Little Caesars Arena would have buzz nightly watching Mitchell splash 3s and soar in for dunks. The Pistons would be a playoff team, and with a few other savvy moves, could win a postseason series for the first time since 2008.

Even more, a trade for Blake Griffin wouldn't have been necessary, which ties into the final scenario.

Opinion: Pistons passing on Donovan Mitchell isn't like Darko Milicic. It's worse

Jan. 30, 2018: What if the Pistons never made the Blake Griffin trade?

What happened: The Pistons were 22-26 and had lost eight straight. They had lost Jackson in the final week of December to a bad ankle sprain.

Van Gundy’s future — he was in Year 4 of his five-year contract — complicated the franchise's direction and kept the pressure on. Therefore, backed by owner Tom Gores, the president/coach made what was billed by some as a desperate move to make the playoffs by dealing for the 28-year-old Griffin.

After years of searching for a star, Gores and Van Gundy finally had one. But it came with great risk due to Griffin’s injury history and massive contract: Griffin was in the first year of a 5-year, $171 million deal, further locking up the Pistons’ already flooded cap sheet.

In return, the Los Angeles Clippers received Tobias Harris, who was having the best season of his career, Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, a top-4 protected first-round pick (it ended up at No. 12) and a second-rounder.

But the Pistons didn't make up ground in the race for the eighth seed, going 11-14 with Griffin playing just ok, until he sat out the final eight games of the season. The Pistons missed the playoffs by four games, going 39-43. Van Gundy was fired and a new administration was brought in.

Griffin was phenomenal last season, and earned third-team All-NBA honors, though he finished the season playing with an injured left knee. The Pistons were the eighth seed and were swept by Milwaukee, extending their playoff losing streak to a record 14 games. Griffin had offseason surgery that caused him to miss the first 10 games this season. He has been diminished since returning, and has one of the least tradable contracts in the league, with two years and $75.5 million remaining on his deal after this season.

And as some predicted, the Pistons have been unable to surround Griffin with the requisite talent to move up in the Eastern Conference, capping their ceiling as a middling playoff team.

A year later, the Clippers are one of the favorites to win the NBA title, thanks to the Griffin trade. They turned Harris into essentially three first-round picks from Philadelphia and two seconds (both of which are the Pistons'), and then a few months later, used their stash of newfound assets plus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — whom they acquired using the Pistons’ first-round pick — to pluck Paul George from Oklahoma City and lock in a free agency commitment from Kawhi Leonard.

But what if ... the Pistons passed on the deal? The Pistons likely would've gotten a minor asset for Bradley in a separate deal or just let him go in the offseason. They still miss the 2018 playoffs, and Van Gundy still is fired in the spring.

But, most importantly, the Pistons keep their 2018 first-round pick, and needing a reboot at point guard, they outmaneuver the Clippers (picking one slot behind them) to draft Gilgeous-Alexander.

Let's say Harris continued his ascent with the Pistons — as he did with the Clippers after the trade. Under a more prudent approach from the Ed Stefanski-led front office, Detroit could have been the team getting a big haul from the 76ers for Harris at the 2019 trade deadline.

The same deal would have worked: The Pistons receive Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala as salary filler, with rookie guard Landry Shamet, Philly’s 2020 first-round pick (protected 1-14) and Miami’s 2021 unprotected first-round pick for Harris and Marjanovic. Detroit gets its 2021 and 2023 second-round picks back too.

One drawback: The Pistons don't make the playoffs last season. Even that knocks four losses off their playoff losing streak!

Without Griffin's contract on the books, the Pistons also would have been able to get into last summer’s free agency-feeding frenzy if need be, with the contracts of Chandler and Muscala expiring.

The Pistons’ future would look bright in this scenario, no tanking needed. They'd have Gilgeous-Alexander (averaging 19.8 points as a 21-year-old in his second season), a deadly shooter in Shamet, all sorts of flexibility on their cap sheet and a trove of future assets to trade for the next unhappy star if they wanted. They’d be set to have an extra first-round pick in each of the next two drafts.

Combine that with Kennard, Sekou Doumbouya, Christian Wood and Bruce Brown, and the Pistons would have an exciting, young, athletic nucleus to hopefully produce the next great era of Detroit basketball.

Instead, Gores and the Pistons will have to look in the mirror and accept the inevitable rebuild is coming. But in part because of the gamble for Griffin, the road back to contention is further away and far more tedious.

Seidel: The 2010s sucked for Detroit sports, but here's why it'll get better in 2020s

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