Preparations for a no-deal Brexit must "intensify in the months ahead" both in EU27 capitals and Brussels, because of uncertainty about whether Theresa May can get a Brexit deal through the U.K. parliament, according to a confidential document due to be discussed by ambassadors Wednesday evening.

The two-page document, prepared by the General Secretariat of the Council and entitled "Preparing for the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the Union," discusses the EU's "preparedness" for the U.K. crashing out of the bloc without a deal if negotiations break down.

Diplomats say that preparations for a no-deal Brexit were on the agenda of the Coreper Article 50 meeting of ambassadors before the caustic Salzburg summit, where tensions between London and Brussels were on public display. “It's just because time is running short,” said an EU diplomat on condition of anonymity.

The ambassadors' meeting follows a lower-level technical meeting of diplomats on September 6 at which “delegations noted that preparedness work has to intensify in the months ahead at national as well as EU level, as uncertainty remains about the outcome of the negotiations and the ratification of a possible deal,” a copy of the document seen by POLITICO reads. This appears to be a reference to fears that even if a deal is struck, it will be voted down by the U.K. parliament.

At that earlier meeting, officials decided that “some political choices, e.g. as regards the extent to which these measures should mitigate the effect of a disorderly withdrawal, will have to be made before the Commission can provide possible answers.”

Michel Barnier "warned [diplomats] against falling into this no-deal trap by forgetting the Withdrawal Agreement" — EU diplomat

This is a reference to the decisions about when to put into action final no-deal contingency measures. "At what point we accept that there'll be no deal and we start implementing them,” said one of the diplomats. The Council document — which does not identify any specific policy areas — argues the decision on timing will be one for national capitals rather than Brussels.

The idea that there is a "go/no go" point at which no-deal plans need to be triggered in earnest is shared in London. One official with knowledge of the talks there said putting those plans into action would likely be a point of no return for achieving a deal, because it would poison the atmosphere in the talks and be an implicit admission they had irrevocably broken down. "I don’t think we want to get there because you’ll find that that will have a very negative impact,” the official said, adding that plans would have to be triggered before Christmas.

According to the Council document, EU27 officials were given a questionnaire in July by the Council of the EU in which they “identified key takeaways, notably as regards priority sectors where member states are taking or considering measures.” But diplomats say that the answers vary across the Continent as member countries have different priorities. The document states that "a number of Member States also raised contingency planning in their responses and identified in this respect priority sectors where EU-level assistance would be welcome, in one form or another.”

It adds that member countries would "benefit from early guidance from the Commission, in particular regarding the sectors in which the Commission will/is prepared to act, as this would allow Member States to target their national measures where they are needed."

The work to prepare for a no-deal scenario has been going on for months, but another diplomat said that EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has warned against falling into the trap of taking their eye off the Withdrawal Agreement to focus too much on no-deal preparations. At the meeting of Europe ministers in Brussels ahead of the Salzburg summit last week, “he warned us against falling into this no-deal trap by forgetting the Withdrawal Agreement, which is where focus should lie at this stage,” the diplomat said.