Europe BEV and PHEV Sales for Q3-2019 + October

By Viktor Irle, EV-volumes

Europe sales of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) were 400 000 units during Q1-Q3. October added another 51 400 sales. Year-to-date growth stands at 39 % over 2018. The September result was particularly strong when the re-launch of popular PHEV for BMW, Mercedes and VW and Porsche, together with high Tesla Model-3 deliveries, boosted the sector to 4,2 % market share, a new record. The first half of 2019 saw a strong shift towards pure electric vehicles (BEV), 68 % for 2019 H1, compared to 51 % for 2018 H1. The change reflected the introduction of the more stringent WLTP for fuel economy ratings, changes in taxation/grants promoting more BEV uptake and better availability of long-range BEVs, including the Model-3. Many PHEV were not available due to model-changes or battery upgrades for better e-range. Since September, the PHEVs are back and were an important growth contributor.

We expect strong results for the last 2 months: The re-bound for PHEV sales continues, Tesla needs to deliver on the guidance of at least 360 000 global deliveries for the year and the Netherlands increase the benefit in kind for the private use of BEV company cars for 2020. 2019 is likely to end with a total volume around 580 000 plug-ins, which is 42 % more than for 2018. Market share can go as high as 6 % in December and is 3,25 % for the year.

Tesla leads the OEM ranking with 78 200 sales year-to-date October, a sector share of 17 %. The BMW Group came second with 70 000 units. The Tesla Model-3 is the best selling plug-in with 65 600 deliveries, clearly ahead of the Renault Zoe with 39 400 sales.

Germany and the Netherlands were the strongest growth contributors, in terms of volumes. Germany has become the largest market for plug-ins in Europe, displacing Norway to the #2 position. Norway is still the word leader in EV uptake, with a share of 45 % in this year's light vehicle sales, up 6 %-points compared to last year. Iceland comes second with 22 % so far; within the EU, Sweden leads with 10 % of new car and LCV registrations being BEVs and PHEVs.