Rossi’s spike in support came largely from women, who broke sharply for him over the weekend (see the gender breakdown in the chart below). Where Schrier had a small lead among women before Saturday, Rossi now leads by 14 percentage points among 204 surveyed women. He leads by 7 percentage points among the 196 men surveyed.

Rossi is doing best among “perfect” voters, who participated in four of the last four elections, as well as with “marginal” voters, who participated in just two of the last four. His performance with the latter suggests that if these numbers hold his chances of winning will improve as turnout increases.

The results also show that the race may still be in flux. According to the polling conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, the raised enthusiasm for the Republican candidate has cooled slightly from his red-hot 24-point advantage over the weekend. But on those days, Rossi’s advantage was still a sizable 10 points. “The question is, did we happen to be in the field and catch this blip that will even out over time or has there been a real shift there that has fundamentally altered the race?” said Elway. “We can’t know that yet.”

The polling conducted prior to the Kavanaugh confirmation looked similar to other recent surveys of the district. Just two weeks ago, a New York Times poll gave Schrier a 1-point advantage. An AARP survey of voters over 50, conducted in mid-September, gave Schrier a similarly thin advantage. Those polls make the huge swing of the Crosscut/Elway Poll something of a shock, which Elway concludes is evidence of the race’s volatility.

The apparent impact of the Supreme Court hearings on the race is not surprising when considering what the pollster found was top of mind for voters in a concurrent statewide poll: 44 percent said the Supreme Court was the most critical issue, more than any other topic. Healthcare — an issue the Democrats and Dr. Schrier have run on — was second, with 39 percent of voters saying it was the most critical.

Immigration, tax policy, the environment and trade followed, in that order.

47 percent of respondents said it's "important" or "better" to keep Republicans in control of congress. 37 percent said the same for Democrats.

For Democrats, winning the 8th — an unshapely district that snakes from parts of southern Pierce County, across the Cascades and north to Leavenworth — is part of their strategy to wrest control of the U.S. House of Representatives from Republicans. A suburban-heavy district, its residents have split their votes between the Democratic presidential nominee and the Republican congressperson dating back to Bill Clinton in 1992, a trend the Democrats would like to end, in their favor.

To flip the district, though, they will have to compete with history: since its creation in 1983, the district has sent only Republicans to congress.

Democrats became more hopeful this cycle when seven-term incumbent Dave Reichert announced his retirement, flinging the race open. Nearly every political tracker lists the race as a toss-up, with some, like Politico, listing it as leaning toward Schrier.

But Rossi is so well-known in the district — thanks to his time as a state legislator and his failed campaigns for Governor and U.S. Senator — he has many of the advantages of an incumbent. Schrier, on the other hand, is still relatively unknown.

Although Rossi’s support dropped some as the frenzy around the Kavanaugh hearings quieted, the fallout from the Supreme Court fight has local Republicans feeling confident.

“That is one race that was close before (the Supreme Court hearings) and now has moved toward a safe campaign for Dino Rossi,” said Republican political consultant Alex Hays, who was unaware of the new poll numbers at the time of our interview.