Ottawa is being urged to rapidly reform its COVID-19 emergency job-loss fund after a new analysis says 862,000 unemployed Canadians will get nothing from either Employment Insurance or the special benefit during the pandemic crisis.

“A full one third of unemployed workers will fall through the cracks and receive no income support unless changes are made quickly to ensure no one is left behind,” said David Macdonald, author of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives’ analysis released Thursday.

Macdonald, the CCPA’s senior economist, said the bulk of workers left behind lost their jobs before the March 15 start of eligibility for payments under the Canada Emergency Response Benefit program, usually because they were self-employed or lacked enough hours to qualify for EI before eligibility rules were liberalized after the pandemic took hold.

Philip Ferguson, a self-employed worker not covered by the emergency package, said he will be forced to continue working on a job site where “I’m at a high risk of getting sick even when taking precautions. I am under so much pressure to pay debt, rent and expenses to continue working.”

In response to the viral outbreak that has hit transport, services and hospitality sectors especially hard, the federal government quickly established the CERB program to offer $2,000 per month for a maximum of four months to help pay for rent and groceries. Ottawa expects four million Canadians to apply for the emergency job-loss fund.

Employment Minister Carla Qualtrough has also said that the benefit could be a model for future aid programs. “This could be the impetus to really, radically simplify how people access income support from the federal government.”

The CCPA analysis says about 1.2 million Canadians were unemployed before COVID-19 started to significantly impact the Canadian economy, and they were joined by another 1.5 million in the initial round of COVD-19 layoffs. Of those who lost their jobs before COVID-19, 604,000 are not eligible for EI but also can’t get the CERB because their employment didn’t cease due to the virus.

Fourteen per cent of unemployed people (390,000) are receiving some support from EI, but less than the $500 a week others will get under CERB, the analysis finds. Macdonald notes that, based on comparable EI numbers, three per cent of laid-off workers (or about 47,000) won’t get the CERB even though they’d likely qualify, because they don’t know about the program, due to its rapid deployment. Another 175,000 workers won’t get CERB despite being laid off after the virus hit because they didn’t make the required minimum earnings of $5,000 in 2019.

The CCPA says immediate changes to the emergency program should include extending access to CERB to all unemployed persons, even if they lost their job before the onset of COVID-19; eliminating the annual earnings requirement; and topping up all present EI recipients to the CERB flat rate.

The federal government should also co-ordinate with the provinces and territories to ensure the CERB isn’t clawed back dollar-for-dollar from social assistance going to some of the most vulnerable workers, the non-profit CCPA says.

Macdonald said fulfilling the recommendations would add about $431 million in costs per week on top of the one-billion-dollar weekly price of the emergency program, but he says the focus should be on “keeping people in their homes and making sure food is on tables.” He also said indications are that the Trudeau government is “very open to tweaks to improve this program.” A spokesperson for the employment minister did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The CCPA analysis follows calls for reform to the emergency benefit from groups representing students, the disabled and seasonal workers who do not qualify under eligibility rules.

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“Whether we are undocumented, whether we are eligible for or receiving EI, or whether we are part of the gig economy, we all deserve immediate access to income supports. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from this pandemic, it’s that we can’t protect ourselves unless we protect everyone,” said Pam Frache, co-ordinator of a group called Fight for $15 and Fairness that is also calling call for 21 paid emergency-leave days for all workers during pandemics.

“Canada’s unemployed workers are sacrificing their pay in order to stop the spread of the virus,” Macdonald added. “We need to recognize that and give them the support they need to survive on the economic front lines.”