MONTREAL—It has been more than a decade since voters have had to ask themselves which of the federal leaders they believe would best defend federalism in a Quebec referendum.

With the ruling Parti Québécois leading in voting intentions and a Quebec election widely assumed to be in the works for the first part of 2014, that could be about to change.

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The numbers may not look promising for the sovereignty movement but the window for achieving Quebec independence in their lifetime is closing on a generation of veteran sovereigntist warriors.

If she won a majority, Premier Pauline Marois would be under tremendous pressure to marshal the resources of her government for another referendum. It is not a possibility that responsible federal politicians could afford to ignore. Here is an early look at some of the strengths and weaknesses of the three main federal leaders on offer.

At first glance Stephen Harper would seem to be the answer to referendum prayers of sovereigntist strategists. No recent prime minister has been so consistently unpopular in the province and his Quebec team is abysmally weak.

Yet over the past eight Conservative years support for sovereignty has flatlined at around 40 per cent.

It may be that the prime minister simply happened to be in the right place at the right time. Or that the sovereignty numbers would be even lower under a federal government that truly connected with Quebec.

But the evidence does not suggest that Harper — notwithstanding his policies — is driving Quebecers into the sovereignty camp.

Of the three leaders Thomas Mulcair is least polarizing in Quebec. He is also the leader that the provincial Liberals who would lead the federalist camp in a referendum know best. As opposed to his rivals who saw little or no action in Quebec in 1995, Mulcair, as a Liberal MNA, spent the last referendum in the trenches.

His contention that if a simple majority of Quebecers voted yes to a clear question, Canada would have to contemplate the province’s departure from the federation is the official position of the federalists in the National Assembly.

But while the NDP leader is more squarely in the Quebec referendum mainstream that his rivals he has yet to sell the rest of the country — including some fellow New Democrats — on his take on the rules of a plebiscite.

In a general election that revolved around the Quebec/Canada theme, the Trudeau name would almost certainly help seal the connection between the Liberal party and the unity issue in the minds of many voters.

But a referendum narrative that sells well in the rest of Canada is not necessarily one that would serve federalism well in an actual referendum.

In 1995 Jean Chrétien had to part ways with Pierre Trudeau on the distinct society issue to restore some desperately needed momentum to the federalist camp.

Justin Trudeau’s more promising potential contribution to the debate in Quebec may ultimately be something other than his iconic last name or his party’s constitutional track record.

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One of the interesting features of the polls on the PQ’s secularism charter is that it is less popular with the younger voters than with the over-40 crowd. Of the three federal leaders Trudeau may be best-placed to frame the sovereignty debate as the lost cause of an aging generation.

Between now and the 2015 federal election the advent of a majority PQ government — even absent of a specific referendum plan — could help Trudeau’s Liberals consolidate the lead they currently enjoy in Quebec.

A boost to sovereigntist morale in the shape of a PQ election victory could translate into a boost for the Bloc Québécois in 2015 — at the expense of the NDP. And if they believed that a referendum was looming, few Quebec federalist voters would pick Harper to lead them through the minefield.

But in the rest of Canada it remains to be seen whether voters fatigued with referendum politics would seek the federal leader most likely to mend fences with Quebec or the one most likely to bring closure to the debate in whatever shape it might take.

Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

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