The 5 most important takeaways from Tennessee's primary election | Analysis

A businessman who is a political outsider or a former Nashville mayor will become the next governor of Tennessee, while the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate received a political shot across the bow.

The choices Tennesseans made in Thursday's primary will have ramifications for years to come. Here are five takeaways from the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.

Tennessee elections 2018: Results from Thursday's primary

Complete coverage: Tennessee's 2018 campaign for governor and US Senate

Republicans prefer outsider to negative campaigns from better-known contenders

One year ago, chances are if you knew Bill Lee's name it was because of his heating, ventilation and plumbing business. But the entrepreneur and farmer found a way to convince Tennessee Republicans he has the vision — if not the experience — to lead the state.

Six months ago, all political insiders expected U.S. Rep. Diane Black and Knoxville businessman Randy Boyd to battle for the nomination.

But a barrage of negative television ads from both candidates appeared to hurt Boyd and Black, leaving the door open for a candidate pushing a positive message to pull ahead.

“Some of her opponents and the outside groups started attacking Diane early. There was a, you know, regular onslaught pretty much from the beginning against her. And, you know, Bill Lee found a way to kind of come up through the middle," said Black spokesman Chris Hartline after his candidate gave her concession speech.

“You gotta give kudos to him for figuring out that strategy and getting it done at the end of the day.”

In a statement after his victory, Lee called his win "a victory for Tennesseans who want an outsider."

Black and Boyd both expressed support for Lee during their concession speeches.

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Money does not equal win in TNGOP race

Black traded on her status as a sitting House member and spent $10 million of personal money to come in — third?

Boyd pointed to the millions of dollars he brought to the state as economic and community development commissioner — and poured roughly $19 million in personal cash into the race — so he could finish almost 100,000 votes behind Lee?

Conventional wisdom says big money means more name recognition, which tends to lead to better results. But Lee cruised to victory after his campaign spent less than $7 million. Is it because his campaign ads tended toward the positive? Or maybe he didn't need to spend big because he wasn't attacked until very late in the race?

Either way, Lee won't be hurting for money as he transitions to take on ex-Nashville Mayor Karl Dean. Expect plenty of statewide and national cash to flow to a businessman who transformed from a political neophyte to the presumptive favorite to become Tennessee's next governor in a matter of weeks.

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Dean blows away Fitzhugh, marches to general election

In political parlance, this is what you call a beatdown.

Despite chatter in liberal Tennessee circles that House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh could compete on a campaign platform of expanding Medicaid eligibility and education reform, Dean coasted a 50-plus percentage point victory.

Dean pledged a clean campaign in his acceptance speech, making no reference to any Republican opponent. But Republicans were ready to take aim at him: The Republican Governors Association — led by Gov. Bill Haslam — labeled Dean a "left-wing, big-government politician" in a statement released moments after the race was called.

If Dean has any chance to win in November, he needs to convince Tennesseans he's more focused on fixing local issues than carrying any national Democratic mantel. Look for Republicans to tie Dean to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and perhaps their favorite punching bags: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Attention shifts to the Senate race

While much of the political firepower has focused on the contested Republican gubernatorial primary, anticipate much of the local and essentially all of the national attention to now shift to Tennessee's U.S. Senate race.

In the upper chamber, Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 advantage over Democrats — two independents caucus with the Democrats. The party cannot afford to lose what has been a strong GOP Senate seat in Tennessee.

Tennessee is among a handful of states seen as battlegrounds in the November midterms.

Yet Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer believes Democrat and former Gov. Phil Bredesen is leading Republican rival U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn. Polls have shown a tight race, with some putting Bredesen narrowly ahead.

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Geer found it particularly interesting that Blackburn's primary opponent Aaron Pettigrew, a heretofore unknown Wyoming transplant and professional trucker, received more than 100,000 votes Thursday night.

"It's worth noting that Pettigrew got nearly 16 percent of the vote and did not run a very visible campaign. I think Marsha Blackburn has a lot of tending to do to the Republican base, and it will be interesting to see how she does that," Geer said.

"I think it's the measure of the dissatisfaction with Blackburn, and ... Phil Bredesen has tapped into that pretty effectively," Geer said. "He's probably ahead by 5, 6, 7 points and, you know, it's going to be a battle. But if she can bring some of those Republicans home that are attracted to Phil Bredesen, it'll be a pitched battle and it'll be close."

Most contested statewide races in a generation

Tennessee voters have not had the chance to cast ballots during the same year in competitive gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races since 1994. That should translate to a deluge of dollars, tons of political ads and potentially record-setting turnout for a midterm election.

Who does that help? In theory, it might be the Democrats. The party that does not control the White House tends to fair better during midterm elections. But Tennesseans should anticipate at least one, if not several, trips from President Donald Trump to the state.

He's already visited Nashville once for Blackburn, and will likely bring Lee to any future events. While Lee is clearly less well-known than Dean, a presidential platform only helps his chances in Tennessee.

The contested races should also mean more votes in down-ballot contests. Democrats hope the projected "blue wave" translates to picking up a few seats in the state legislatures.

But they may have a harder time painting Lee as a "knuckle-dragging wingnut" — a moniker Blackburn happily adopted after saying liberals used the phrase to describe her — than a different Republican gubernatorial candidate.