Les Bowen asked a tough, but fair question to Chip Kelly the other day. Bowen asked why the offense seems to have become less effective since Kelly’s first season, 2013.

Kelly was talking about how things change from week to week, in terms of how the Eagles run their offense and how opposing teams defend them. Kelly said there was no one type of defense best suited to stopping the Eagles and that teams used a variety of methods. Kelly was pointing out that no one had figured out his offense and knew how to stop the Eagles.

Les’s question makes sense. If the offense was at its best in 2013, that sure makes it look like teams have adjusted and started to figure out Kelly’s attack.

I do think familiarity has affected the Eagles offense. The more you see something, the more you get to know it and how to deal with it. The Eagles had the element of surprise to help them in that first season. Defenses had not seen some of the things the Eagles were doing.

That said, I think that is actually a far overblown point.

There are two other keys that really stick out to me. The first is OL play. The Eagles had the same 5 linemen start all 16 games in 2013. Jason Peters was terrific. Evan Mathis had a Pro Bowl year. Jason Kelce was terrific. Todd Herremans was up and down initially, but once he adjusted to RG, Herremans played well. Lane Johnson started slowly as a rookie, but got much better as the year progressed. That kind of talent and continuity up front is invaluable.

Strong OL play is critical in Kelly’s offense. He likes to spread the field to stretch out the defense. That means fewer people in the box. If you want to do that, you need blockers who can win one-on-one battles. Kelly’s passing game is largely built on play-action passes. That means a successful running game is a must. In order to run the ball, you need OL who can block well. Kelly isn’t interested in putting together a “good enough” offense. He is looking for explosive plays and points. He wants a dynamic offense. A good OL is imperative for him.

The other huge reason for the standout offensive play in 2013 was lack of turnovers. Nick Foles did a great job of protecting the ball. He took sacks rather than taking chances. We also have to be honest and admit there was just some pure old fashioned luck. There were quite a few drops by defensive players.

The last two seasons have been very different than 2013.

2014 OL starters: original 5 + Barbre, Molk, Kelly, Tobin, Gardner

2015 OL starters: original 5 + Tobin, Kelly

The OL was really a mess in 2014 due to injuries. This year change hurt the situation, with Barbre taking over for Mathis and Gardner for Herremans. The starting 5 was different, which obviously changed up the backups.

As for turnovers, they have been a huge issue for two years now. The Eagles led the NFL in turnovers in 2014. This season they are 26th. To put things in perspective, Nick Foles only threw 2 INTs back in 2013. Sam Bradford threw 3 Red Zone INTs in the first 5 weeks of this season.

You could point out that the INTs are due to good defense (and familiarity with the offense), but I don’t think that is the case. Those were plays where Bradford forced the ball or just made terrible throws.

Bill Walsh designed the West Coast Offense back in Cincinnati in the early 1970s. He kept working on it and made it the foundation of his great Niners teams. That offense led SF to its first Super Bowl title in 1981. Bill Walsh ran the same offense in 1984 and won again. He ran the same offense in 1988 and won yet again.

Walsh made adjustments over the years, but the basic plays and principles of the offense remained the same. That offense succeed because Walsh found talent for his system and was able to coach his players to perform at an elite level. He got them to execute.

Give Kelly a stable OL and better QB play and his offense can look pretty darn brilliant again. Jimmy and Joes are more important than X’s and O’s. Especially the QB.

Scheme and playcalling are part of the equation. No one disputes that.

But the notion that teams have simply solved Kelly’s offense just doesn’t fly. There was a point in the late 1990s when it seemed like more than half of the NFL was running some version of the WCO. In 1998 Denver used a version of the WCO to help them win the Super Bowl. They beat Green Bay, who also ran the WCO. The Eagles went 3-13 and were nightmarishly bad on offense, also running the WCO.

If so many teams were running the offense, how did anyone have offensive success? Just because you know something is coming doesn’t mean you can stop it.

Sometimes it is a matter of great talent. Jerry Rice is the greatest WR of all time. He was open most of the time. And even when he wasn’t open, he could still make catches and utterly frustrate you. Rob Gronkowski is a dominant TE. You can know the ball is coming to him and he can still make the play. His combination of size, strength, skill and athleticism is remarkable. No one matches up well with him.

Other times there is just great execution. If a WR runs a precise route, there is usually going to be a moment where he is open, before the CB can react to the WR’s move. If the QB anticipates well and gets the ball out at the right time, you have a good play. Ty Detmer and Irving Fryar got the best of Deion Sanders in the game at Dallas in 1996. Clearly neither of those guys is a great talent. They executed the plays well and Fryar had 9 catches for 120 yards and a TD. Oh, and the Eagles were running the WCO. And Deion had faced Jerry Rice running many of those plays for years in the SFO-ATL series (they used to be in the same division and played twice a year).

The 2013 Eagles did have the advantage of running a new offense, but the real keys to that season were outstanding OL play and protecting the ball. The Eagles have been very inconsistent in those areas in the last 2 years and the results reflect that.

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