Long before coronavirus radically changed life worldwide, Elijah Nishiura planned to take courses at Brookdale Community College this summer.

The 20-year-old Red Bank resident wanted to wrap up some classes so he had the option to graduate early from Ithaca College in upstate New York, where he studies political science for most of the year.

Nishiura said he's eager to start his career and wanted to have the flexibility to graduate in the fall should he find his ideal starter job.

But COVID-19 may disrupt the options Nishiura had thoughtfully carved out for himself and leave him instead with a patchwork of questions.

Will he be on campus this fall, and should he take the semester off if he's not? If he's taking online classes, at what school will he take them? And would he still graduate early if it means he'll miss having his final senior semester on campus?

Nishiura pauses at each of the questions. He's pretty sure he knows how he'll answer those questions for himself. But he also knows the answer could be vastly different for students pursuing different degrees.

And he acknowledges how quickly and radically the coronavirus outbreak can change the landscape between now and the start of fall semester.

"Ignorance is bliss right now," he said.

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That leaves colleges and universities across New Jersey and the country trying to plan for a fall semester that could have their campuses open for business as normal, a scenario that higher education officials agree is unlikely to happen; open for online coursework only; or some variation in the middle.

Last year, about 411,000 students attended one of New Jersey's public or private post-secondary schools, according to the New Jersey Office of the Secretary of Higher Education. How many will return is anyone's guess.

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New Jersey higher education administrators are modeling a wide variety of potential decisions their students could make — skip fall semester to save money, start a new skills program to rebound from layoff sparked by the pandemic, continue with schooling but attend locally where the costs are less — and how each could impact their enrollment and tuition, often the largest driver of funding for higher education institutions.

"There are so many unknowns here that this is about flexibility," said Rabbi Aaron Kotler, the president and CEO of Beth Medrash Govoha in Lakewood, the state's largest religious college.

'Scenario planning' the fall

Monmouth University President Patrick Leahy announced a hiring freeze, postponing construction projects and issuing pay cuts for himself and other top university administrators last week as the West Long Branch private university prepares for the fall semester. Administrators are also working on a furlough program should it be needed.

Leahy called the move a protective measure to hedge against an potential impact the coronavirus outbreak and prolonged stay-at-home orders may have on enrollment, which accounts for about 90% of the university's $260 million budget through tuition payments.

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Monmouth University has been doing "scenario planning" on what any given change in the public health recommendations might have on the school.

Would students take a year off rather than take online courses if campus can't open? Would they shift to another school in a state where the outbreak is less severe? What if school can open, but students staying in dormitories have to live one to a room? What if testing is required to return, but the tests aren't available?

"There are so many variables, any one of which, in an institution like ours, affects our revenue projections," he said.

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Leahy, however, said he's confident about Monmouth University's ability to weather any dips in enrollment because of its strong financial position, including the fact the school has no outstanding debt.

"It puts us in a really positive position if we are wading into turbulent waters," he said.

Finances weigh heavy on the minds of all leaders of New Jersey colleges and universities, which lost revenue of room and board payments refunded to on-campus students sent home down to smaller revenue streams like on-campus conferences canceled and parking garages that are now empty because the outbreak, New Jersey Secretary of Higher Education Zakiya Smith Ellis said.

Like private schools, public schools also face the potential for enrollment drops.

Typically, higher educations, especially community colleges and graduate programs, see gains in enrollments during recessions as people who have lost jobs either pivot to new careers or build new skills to make them, Smith Ellis said.

But it's not clear yet if that will happen with the economic downturn the pandemic sparked, Smith Ellis said. Some potential students may be concerned about taking on new student loan debt in a time when so much of the economy is closed to slow the spread of coronavirus. Others may expect to return to their job once the economy restarts.

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Public institutions face likely cuts in state funding.The state government is also grappling with the loss of tax revenue because of the pandemic. New Jersey already froze $920 million in discretionary spending for this fiscal year and still needs to plot potentials cut in the proposed $40.9 billion budget for next fiscal year, which needs to be completed by Sept. 30.

There is some funding in the CARES Act, the federal pandemic bailout package, for higher education; however, Smith Ellis said New Jersey leaders are pushing for additional funding to help schools with the shortfalls.

No take-home transmissions

At Brookdale Community College, President David Stout is preparing for state cuts.

The Monmouth County community college is at an advantage because of its fiscal planning, he said. That means it has assets it can tap into help offset any state cuts. And it actively looks for grants that could also help.

Like Monmouth University, Brookdale is planning for three different paths this fall, one where courses remain solely online, a "miracle" situation where on-campus learning is fully open or a blend between the two, Stout said.

An opportunity to have limited on-campus learning — with social distancing safety precautions in place — can make a huge impact for certain course work.

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About 30% of the programs at Brookdale are applied sciences programs, where hands-on experience is central to student learning, Stout said. While a political science or a math class might seamlessly be taught online, the same isn't true for, say, an automotive, an arts or a welding program.

"The average student doesn’t have a transmission in their home that they are able to work on. They don’t have a kiln at home for ceramics," he said.

Brookdale faculty are creating instructional videos to show those hands-on portions while the campus is closed. Students will get "in progress" grades until the campus can safely reopen in some fashion for students to complete hands on work, Stout said.

In some scenarios, Brookdale is loaning equipment to students who might not either have or be able to purchase items on their own, such as sewing machines for fashion students or laptops for those who otherwise relied on the college's computer labs.

Stout said the school used grants as well as savings it found elsewhere such as in the snow removal budget, which wasn't needed because of the mild winter, to purchase additional equipment like laptops to loan out to students.

Gaps in technology across communities are just one of the litany of issues institutions and OSHE have had to navigate, Smith Ellis said. The pandemic revealed how many students relied on resources like the school's computer labs and its strong broadband internet signals.

"A lot of community college and commuter students don’t have great broadband at home. It’s a luxury to have strong signal," she said. "We assume everyone has a laptop at home. That's not the case for everybody."

Boosting enrollment and compassion

Some schools, however, are seeing the potential that the pandemic may boost their enrollment.

Beth Medrash Govoha in Lakewood is seeing greater interest from local students who might otherwise have been leaning toward options out of state or internationally, said Kotler, the school's president.

It's also the case for community colleges, which offer some of the same courses as four-year institutions, but at a lower price. And one of the purposes of community colleges was to offer quick workforce training courses, where students can gain new job skills in the matter of weeks and months rather than years, Stout said.

Brookdale is also preparing for an increased interest in health care programs like nursing and respiratory therapy.

Brookdale is in a strong position to help train that next generation of health care workers because of an investment it made several years earlier with its STEM and health care simulation laboratory at its Wall campus, which opened in 2017.

That will allow a greater number of students to train on simulation equipment and decrease demand for limited clinical work opportunities, he said.

Schools are also putting greater emphasis on helping students with their lives outside the classroom. Colleges and universities across New Jersey have created funds to help students through economic issues.

Monmouth University shifted staff so there are more available to help answer student questions that come into the university president's office, Leahy said. Each student also has a case manager who works directly with that student to help troubleshoot problems they face.

Kotler said he's been impressed with the compassion his faculty has shown toward students. Without a campus presence, the instructor's ability to engage students is critical, he said.

"We look at them as really carrying the water for the entire education system," he said.

Some are also calling students individually, not only to ask about their classwork but to ask about them personally and help ease any struggles they are facing.

"The students too are seeing a renewed sense of how precious time is and a beautiful focus on studies," Kotler said. "People have a heightened awareness on life."

Susanne Cervenka covers Monmouth County government and property tax issues, winning several state and regional awards for her work. She's covered local government for 15 years, with stops in Ohio and Florida before arriving in New Jersey in 2013. Contact her at @scervenka; 732-643-4229; scervenka@gannettnj.com.