Whitetail Winter 2014-15 - Joe Kennedy

UPDATE June 16: The Antlerless Deer Permit Allocation for 2015 have been released. As expected, the number of permits this year is down dramatically (20% less than 2014). We talk to Joe below about why, but for more information, please see the GNB Natural Resources site

As hunters and outdoorsmen and women, we’re all used to playing the role of “armchair expert” to anyone who’ll listen. Sit around a table at a hunting camp and you’ll hear exactly what the cause is for any number of problems. Everything from Buck:Doe ratios to “those Damned Coyotes” are often blamed for the shrinking amount of wildlife we see each fall. While we all have years of anecdotal evidence to support our tales, we need to keep in mind one of the keys to science. Correlation does not equal causation. For example: We may see a heck of a lot more does in the fall than bucks, but is that because the ratio is out of whack, or because those wary old bucks are hunkered down and earning their title of “Ghost of the Woods”?

Throughout the course of the winter of 2014/15, especially in the New Year, we’ve published several articles related to whitetail deer issues with winter. Because we’ve had such a dramatic amount of snow fall in our little piece of the world, the issues we often don’t think of; such as whether winter deer feeding programs are a good or bad thing for the herd suddenly come to the front of our minds.

In New Brunswick, Canada, we’re at the northern edge of the Whitetail’s natural range. As such, even though there are many issues facing our deer herd in the long-term, nothing comes close to affecting the short-term population of Whitetail Deer more than a severe winter.

It’s in cases like this where we like to go out and ask the true experts in their fields, those who spend their whole lives in the field and earn their livelihoods studying the science behind the issues. Today, we’re joined by Deer Biologist Joe Kennedy. For 25 years, Joe has been a Biologist with the Department of Natural Resources in New Brunswick. Joe is your man on the ground in New Brunswick, doing everything he can to manage the Whitetail population to benefit the citizens of New Brunswick. When a policy is implemented or changed in New Brunswick related to deer, such as limiting antlerless harvest to protect breeding does, Joe is responsible for those decisions.

We were lucky enough to have a few minutes to ask Mr. Kennedy about how this severe winter has impacted the wildlife of New Brunswick, and we wanted to share this information with you.

Question: Thanks for taking the time to sit down for an interview with us today Joe. We’d like to ask you a few questions about the winter of 2014/15 and the impact it has had on our deer population. We’ve given you a bit of an introduction, but is there anything you’d like to add that you think would be good for our readers to know about you?

Joe: Overall, the winter of 2015 was one of the worst winters in the past 25 years, according to our winter severity measurements. We expect over 20% of the provincial deer herd perished this winter because of the long duration of deep snow. The impact to the deer population was made worse because the winter before was also severe. Both the fawn and yearling cohorts will be reduced this year, and we will see this reflected in a reduced harvest this coming fall.

Q: In previous years, DNR would conduct aerial surveys to monitor the population of the herd in the province. Does this still occur, and can you give us an estimate of what the Whitetail Population in the province currently?

Joe: DNR still continues to assess big game populations using aerial surveys, however recent efforts have been focused on moose; deer are only recorded when they are encountered. We attempted to survey deer in northern NB this fall, but the early snows forced the deer into wintering area. Concentrated deer would affect our results, so we had to change our plans.

We use a population model to estimate deer populations for each Wildlife Management Zone. We use population structure data gathered from harvested and roadkilled deer as the basis for the model, which includes deer ages, sex ratios, fetuses per does, and mortality rates. The model is projecting a prehunt population of 72,600 deer across the province for 2015, about 30% less than the 2013 prehunt herd.

Q: As I mentioned above, one of the things we hear the most about is the Buck:Doe ratio being wonky in New Brunswick. This is based on anecdotal evidence, so do you have any idea what the true Buck:Doe ratio would be in the province?

Joe: Forest rangers handle over 2000 roadkilled deer every year, collecting age and biological data from each one, which provides excellent unbiased data reflective of the current population structure. The prehunt adult sex ratio that we observed in 2014 was about 2.2 females for every buck (2.2 F/M). The sex ratio has changed little since 2000, when it was 1.7 F/M. We feel that this is a healthy sex ratio for good fawn recruitment.

We know that hunters have a different opinion on apparent sex ratios from what they see while hunting or from their trailcams. Two factors have to be considered: a) bucks have different travel patterns than does and are less susceptible to baits, so are less obvious than female deer, and b) normally almost half of the prehunt deer herd is comprised of fawns and yearlings, so there are a lot of antlerless deer out there. However once you exclude the young, the sex ratio for deer over 2 years of age are not as skewed, with 2 adult females for every 1 adult buck. We have confidence in our sex ratios determined from roadkills because we use techniques proven by several studies that it represents actual conditions.

Q: Winter mortality is a severe issue for deer regionally. What is the worst case scenario for winter losses this year, and how do you determine and estimate winter loss?

Joe: As mentioned earlier, we expect over 20% winter deer mortality this year for the province. The mortality estimates are calculated for each Wildlife Management Zone, and the most severe zone was WMZ 5, with 38% mortality. Most of the northern zones experienced winter mortalities in excess of 25% of the herd. The severe northern winters are the main reason why several northern zone are closed to hunting.

Our Winter Severity Index, and associated mortality estimates, are calculated from a model developed in Maine. For decades, Maine Game Wardens surveyed deer wintering yards in the spring to count dead deer. Biologists also collected weather data through the winter, such as minimum temperature, wind speeds, snow depths, and sinking snow depths for deer. Researchers then related all of the weather information to the number of dead deer and developed a computer model. We now use that model to predict winter mortality, although we modified it to just use snow depths because snow depths were found to be the most influential factor impacting deer. We have 40 winter severity stations across the province where snow depth measurements are taken every week through the winter.

Q: Is there a certain part of the herd that is more heavily affected? Opponents of the Antlerless Tag claim that Mature Bucks will “run themselves ragged” during the rut trying to breed all of the does, and not have enough fat reserves left over to handle the winter. Is there truth to this?

Joe: It is widely stated that bucks can lose 25-30% of their body weight during the rut. The studies that found these results were located in the southern USA. To determine if NB deer exhibited similar trends, I looked at the measurements taken from deer roadkilled during the winter. I looked at body fat measurements taken from over 12,000 deer since 2000.

I found that body condition for male and female deer for both fawns and yearlings were exactly the same. That is to be expected because the buck deer are either too young to rut, or are just starting to rut. I did find a difference between adult male and female deer older than 2 years; male deer had 7% less fat than female deer, but were still in good condition.

However, to account for the reduced body condition in bucks during the winter, the population model we use in NB assumes that male deer will have 10% higher winter mortality than female deer. So there is truth that some bucks may be affected by the rut, but not enough that it would cause a significant change in the sex ratios. As I stated earlier, the sex ratio for adult female to male deer is fairly consistent at 2:1.

Q: Along the same lines, is it true that even healthy adult does will abort fetuses to deal with the stresses of winter? When we talk about the fawns lost to winter, do we think about how many aborted fetuses there are and what affect this will have on future populations?

Joe: Actually, this occurs less than people realize. Female deer rarely abort their fetuses. Rangers measure the health of all fetuses found in roadkilled female deer. When I looked at the 1130 fetuses taken from all females over the past 2 winters, only 16 fetuses appeared aborted, or 1.4% of all fetuses. When I looked at fetuses from just the starving females, I found that 3% of the fetuses were aborted. These figures are too small to consider in our population modelling.

Q: Antlerless Tags. Recently in an interview with CBC Radio, you mentioned that you might have to adjust or even remove the rest of the “doe tags”. Currently the majority of the “doe tags” are now in Wildlife Management Zones (such as 22 (Kennebecasis Valley) and 27 (Grand Manan)) where population control is at least a concern. Will you still consider modifying/removing them in those zones since a burgeoning population of deer there is not necessarily going to relocate into sparsely populated areas of the province? Is there any possibility of splitting/creating additional WMZs to more granularly manage things like this?

Joe: New Brunswick has 27 Wildlife Management Zones, a fair amount for a small province. The WMZs are used to manage several big game and furbearer species. We feel the current zones are adequate for managing these species while providing hard enforceable boundaries. We issue antlerless deer permits based on the individual deer population dynamics for each WMZ.

Q: Speaking of deer in Grand Manan, the deer got there in the first place by relocating deer from other areas of the program with trap and transfer programs. Any chance we could now reverse the process in KV and Grand Manan to assist with repopulation from these areas where overpopulation is a hazard and concern? Or is it simply too costly in this economic climate to undertake such a program?

Joe: We know that at least 10 deer were released on Grand Manan in the 1960’s, although deer had been on the island before this action. Deer are excellent swimmers and have naturally populated Grand Manan, Deer Island and Campobello Island. In fact, a deer swam out to Machias Seal Island this past summer!

But this question is about relocating deer. Large scale trap and transfer programs for deer are not something that DNR would consider these days, for several reasons too lengthy to discuss here. Briefly, the programs are very expensive, the mortality rates are high for deer, and the effort would need to be continual. Some areas have high deer densities because they have high survival rates and reduced mortality on the local deer. It would be impossible to remove all of the deer and to stop any from immigrating into the vacated habitat.

There are less expensive alternatives to managing urban deer by using controlled hunts, and the recent Kennebecasis Valley Deer Management Program is an excellent example.

Q: One of the good things we found during our studies of whitetail wintering is that deer in our area have adapted to handle a winter of approximately 120 days. Our winter was relatively mild until late in January, so does this give us a glimmer of hope?

Joe: No, not really I’m sorry to say. The snow was deep and lasted a long time over most of the province. We use actual deer body condition as the indicator for the severity of the winter to deer. We found that 63% of the deer had little to no body fat, or in other words, they had used up most of their energy reserves when they were travelling through the snow, and were starving. This was one of the worst winters on record for poor body condition in deer.

Q: Let’s talk about Coyotes. We all know that winter provides the best opportunity for a pack of coyotes to catch and kill whitetail. Does the crazy amount of snow we’ve encountered this winter increase the odds that more whitetail will be killed by coyotes, or do the coyotes actually struggle because of their shorter legs more than we’d expect?

Joe: Yes, it was a hard winter on coyotes too. Snowshoe hare are a large part of the coyotes diet, and it was difficult for the dogs to catch the bunnies this winter because of the deer snows. However we know that in some localized areas, coyote packs invaded deer wintering areas, where the dogs were able to run down deer that were confined to established trails. In situations like this, it is possible for coyotes to significantly impact local deer populations.

Q: We have to talk about Winter Feeding Programs. We’ve always taken the stance that people should not partake in feeding programs, especially without properly understanding the implications and responsibilities involved. That being said, some well-respected families in New Brunswick have undertaken feeding programs that have been deemed as “successful”. Can you speak briefly to what your position on feeding programs is?

Joe: Deer will quickly habituate to a new food source. Feeding stations can attract deer from great distances, change their natural seasonal migration patterns, and cause them to live in suboptimal habitat. In urban/suburban areas, we know that female deer establish their home ranges around feeding stations, give birth locally, and become multi-generational in those areas. This increased deer density may lead to several concerns: local natural food sources may be significantly browsed, including the neighbors ornamental shrubs and gardens (probably angering your neighbor!), higher potential for disease transfer, increased likelihood for deer-vehicle accidents if the feeding station is near a road (and most are), increased stress and competition among deer, attraction of predators, and reduced wariness to people, which may lead to increased susceptibility to hunting.

Also, in the case where high starch foods like corn or oats are suddenly introduced, deer are unable to tolerate the change from a woody browse diet and develop acidosis, which often kill deer. We have investigated several cases of multiple deer deaths around huge mounds of cheap bird food. We had to inform the well-intended people that they actually caused the death of the deer by giving them an improper food source. Finally, because many deer become dependent on a feeding station, any interruption in the food supply (like a mid-winter vacation) will force the deer to survive in a crowded and unnatural habitat, far exceeding its carrying capacity. In this situation, the factors listed above become magnified.

New Brunswick DNR, as well as most wildlife agencies, encourages the public to not feed the deer. It is far preferred that deer use natural foods and habitats to survive. Yes, deer will be subject to some mortality during severe winters, however that is normal and is part of their natural history and population cycles. Human intervention in this natural function may support our own self-interests, but it does not provide long-term benefits to deer populations.

Q: Again along the same lines, recently we received a photograph from a concerned reader with an active feeding program in her area. She mentions “All of their 'natural browse' within a mile, has been chewed down to just sticks. They are eating pine, spruce, and any sort of food that is being offered to them.” This photo shows an obviously unhealthy deer on the brink, but does it indicate a deer that’s suffering because of a feeding program, or in your opinion is the feeding program the reason that deer hasn’t already succumbed to the elements?

Joe: As I mentioned earlier, deer that concentrate around feeding stations also often deplete the local natural food sources. It is usually poor habitat, deer exceed the carrying capacity, and eat everything in reach. Sure, deer like this may survive the winter because of the supplemental feed, but there will be an overabundance of deer in a localized area reliant on an artificial food source. It would be better for the deer to live in their natural habitat.

Final Question: Is there anything we, as outdoorsmen and women, can do in the spring to assist the deer population recovering from winter? Should we be helping by creating mineral sites or cutting tree tops to provide natural browse for example, or simply stay out of Nature’s way?

Joe: New Brunswick deer populations would benefit the most from private woodlot owners including some management for deer habitat when they are managing their properties. We know that the majority of NB deer overwinter on private woodlots. Any consideration for maintaining deer shelter and browse when managing their woodlots would go a long way in supporting our deer herd. Natural provision of shelter and food is the best approach for managing deer habitat.

We want to once again thank Mr. Kennedy for sitting down with us for this extremely enlightening and fascinating interview. Some of the news he portrayed paints a pretty bleak picture, but it’s one that we need to know. 30% less deer in the province today than there was in 2013 at the same time is certainly not the news we had hoped for, but it’s important to raise awareness. How many times have we heard this spring already that the deer made out fine when someone sees a field with a few deer in it, or someone drives through Quispamsis and sees several? It's important that we as outdoorsmen and women raise awareness to the harsh realities facing our herd.

2015-05-25 06:08:26

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