REVIEWS BY SYSTEM

For each system, I’ll highlight a few features, strengths, or weaknesses. I’ve also determined which system was ‘highest’ on each player in the dataset (i.e. which system would have drafted them). From that list of players, I’ll note each systems best ‘wins’ (📈) and ‘losses’ (📉), based on the players’ surplus values measured as the difference between the actual 2019 $ value and the average projected $ value.

Big Board Mix 2019

🏆 #1 Hitter Projections

🏆 #1 Pitcher Projections

📈 Christian Yelich (+$17), Roberto Osuna (+$9)

📉 CJ Cron (-$5), Max Scherzer (-$4)

It’s tacky to crown myself the king, but the results are what they are! By both R squared and RMSE, my weighted average of systems had a strong year. The Big Board mix hit well on Yelich and his near-MVP season. It’s worth noting that the systems which average other projections (BB Mix, ATC, FG Depth) were not often the ‘highest’ on any particular player. That said, for this subset of players, the Big Board mix made very few mistakes on bad players, with CJ Cron and Max Scherzer being the “worst” misses.

Steamer

🏆 #3 Hitter Projections

🏆 #2 Pitcher Projections

📈 Austin Meadows (+$20), Gerrit Cole (+$36)

📉 Jose Ramirez (-$16), Chris Sale (-$21)

This was a fantastic result for Steamer. I continue to be impressed at how this system competes with the ‘weighted-average’ systems. The only thing really holding them back on the pitching side are the SV projections, and for some reason, Runs on the hitting side. Steamer grabbed some good breakouts last year, including Austin Meadows, and pegged the dominant season for Gerrit Cole. They were in on JoRam and Sale, but in each case, those are players that had weird, possibly injury-related issues. I’m letting them off the hook a bit for those.

ATC

#4 Hitter Projections

🏆 #3 Pitcher Projections

📈 Freddie Freeman (+$14), Eduardo Rodriguez (+$14)

📉 Robinson Cano (-$19 #LFGM), Jose Leclerc (-$7)

While the #4 and #3 finishes don’t look overly impressive, I think ATC had a very good year, as those are narrow margins between the systems near the top. Steamer and ATC are the two best public systems right now, which is why my BB Mix is basically a weighted average of the two. There are some nice buys here, including Freddie Freeman... the appearance of Robbie Cano makes me wonder if Ariel (a Mets fan) was dreaming on his Mets and had his finger on the scale for that one. It’s worth noting that the systems which average other projections (BB Mix, ATC, FG Depth) were not often the ‘highest’ on any particular player.

FanGraphs Depth Charts

🏆 #2 Hitter Projections

#5 Pitcher Projections

📈 Adam Eaton (+$7), Stephen Strasburg (+$23)

📉 Vlad Guerrero Jr. (-$11), Andrew Miller (-$9)

The hand-curated playing time hurts them, but generally speaking, the Depth Charts show just how powerful projection averaging is. A simple 50-50 mix of Steamer-ZiPS produced a strong result, as it almost always does. Depth Charts were highest of the systems on Strasburg, who put together a healthy season and carried the Nats to the ‘ship, but also Vlad Jr., who had a somewhat disappointing MLB debut. It’s worth noting that the systems which average other projections (BB Mix, ATC, FG Depth) were not often the ‘highest’ on any particular player.

ZiPS

#5 Hitter Projections

#6 Pitcher Projections

📈 Rafael Devers (+$33), Shane Bieber (+$28)

📉 Jake Bauers (-$16), Kevin Gausman (-$16)

I’m glad I did the player-by-player analysis. ZiPS was not particularly strong on either side of the ball, particularly on the pitching side, and yet Dan’s system was the highest on a number of big breakouts. Devers, Bellinger, Semien, Bieber, Verlander, and Hader were all on the ZiPS list - each of these were players that carried teams all year. Even if you wasted a pick on Bauers or Gausman, I think a ZiPS-based fantasy team might have actually been very strong!

The Bat

#6 Hitter Projections

#7 Pitcher Projections

📈 Anthony Rendon (+$25), Charlie Morton (+$23)

📉 Jesus Aguilar (-$21), Rick Porcello (-$12)

It wasn’t an impressive 2019 for The Bat, which is a shame because I came away from last year’s analysis optimistic for the system. Maybe it’s something to chalk up to the difficulty of projecting 2019 in general, and The Bat could bounce back next year. After a poor showing in playing-time projection last year, Derek just went with the Depth Charts’ playing time in 2019, which is probably a good call, although stealing the Steamer or ATC playing time might be better. Some nice buys on older players like Rendon and Morton here, but also some real duds on the vets Aguilar and Porcello. Does The Bat love playing the oldies?

FanGraphs Fans

#7 Hitter Projections

#4 Pitcher Projections, somehow

📈 Peter Alonso (+$30), Sonny Gray (+$24)

📉 Khris Davis (-$21), Kyle Freeland (-$22)

Oh the Fans. I’m not sure they’re going to exist for 2020 unless FanGraphs gets the surveys posted very soon, and that’s a bummer because they’re always entertaining in their endless optimism. Fans give you results like believing Peter Alonso is instantly going to be very good, or Sonny Gray is going to totally return to ace-status, and sometimes they are right! But usually they are wrong, and say things like Kyle Freeland is a perfectly cromulent pitcher… woops? Note that fan projections only exist for a subset of players, so the rest are filled in with Steamer projections - that unavoidably serves to improve the overall result for the Fans. But hey, they need all the help they can get!

PECOTA

🚨 Worst Hitter Projections (but #2 PA projections)

🚨Worst Pitcher Projections

📈 DJ Lemahieu (+$32), Zach Greinke (+$27)

📉 Jose Peraza (-$25), Wade Davis (-$23)

There’s always next year. For what it’s worth, I love what they’re doing with releasing the various percentile projections now. It’s interesting to see PECOTA in on both DJ and Greinke, two players whose success is built on contact management. These are two players that are criminally underrated by many projection systems. Perhaps this system is more willing to believe in sustained batted-ball ‘luck’ from season to season? But given the overall poor results for PECOTA, maybe that willingness makes the overall performance of the system worse.

THE FINE PRINT