Earlier this month, Mike Cassidy, a project director at Google’s high-risk research division X, woke before dawn in the Northwest Brazilian state of Piauí. It was already warm and humid. He drove for an hour to a clearing in a rural area and helped his team launch several high-altitude balloons with a payload of Internet connectivity technology—the nub of the project he directs called Loon. Then he jumped into another car to race against the balloons’ flight path, speeding along an unpaved road, dodging chickens and pigs, and finally arriving at Agua Fria, a tiny community on the outskirts of the town Campo Maior.

Cassidy pulled up to a rural schoolhouse that had never been able to receive high-quality Internet signals. (Locals sometimes climb trees to try to get a signal for their mobile phones.) The principal, who doubles as the lunchroom cook, ushered him into a classroom filled with middle-school-age kids. Within minutes, one of the balloons he’d launched that morning was overhead, enabling a teacher to get a high-speed connection on his computer. The instructor was able to supplement that day’s lesson about Portugal with Google maps and Wikipedia. Students asked off-the-wall questions—and got answers courtesy of Google. Later when Cassidy spoke to the kids, they shared their goals: One wanted to be an engineer; another, a doctor.

Cassidy has always contended that by providing the Internet to unserved areas, his project could help make those dreams achievable. A year after the project’s public launch, he’s confident that Internet service enabled by high-altitude balloons is more than a possibility. “We’ve definitely crossed the point where there’s a greater than 50 percent chance that this will happen,” he says.

Project Loon team members install a Loon Internet antenna while the schoolchildren look on. Photo: Courtesy of Google Project Loon team members install a Loon Internet antenna while schoolchildren look on. Photo: Courtesy of Google

When Google announced Project Loon on June 15 last year, a lot of people were skeptical. But Google reports that since then, it has been able to extend balloon flight times and add mobile connectivity to the service. As a result, Google’s expectations are flying even higher than the 60,000-foot strata where its balloons live.

"This is the poster child for Google X,” says Astro Teller, who heads the division. “The balloons are delivering 10x more bandwidth, 10x steer-ability, and are staying up 10x as long. That’s the kind of progress that can only happen a few more times until we’re in a problematically good place.” A year ago, balloons typically remained aloft for a few days at most, and download speeds averaged one or two megabits per second—comparable to the slowest wired Internet service.

Loon team members Chris and Cyrus set up the mobile ground station that will connect the Loon balloon signal to the Internet. Photo: Courtesy of Google Loon team members Chris and Cyrus set up the mobile ground station that will connect the Loon balloon signal to the Internet. Photo: Courtesy of Google

Since the first public test flights in New Zealand, Google’s balloons have clocked over a million and half kilometers. Increasing the crafts’ endurance has been a key challenge. One balloon expert originally scoffed at the claim that Loon balloons would eventually keep going for an average of 100 days. “Absolutely impossible—even three weeks is rare,” said Per Lindstrand, known for his highly publicized forays with entrepreneur Richard Branson. Indeed, during the first New Zealand tests, the balloons generally lasted only a few days.

Google bumped up flight durations by extensively analyzing its failures. Using former military operations people, it took pains to recover nearly every downed balloon. Google’s testing procedures also got a boost from winter’s polar vortex: Ground temperatures in South Dakota, where some of the balloons are manufactured, went as low as -40 degrees Celsius, about the same as what balloons encounter at 60,000 feet. So Google could test the inflated materials at leisure. Ultimately, Loon engineers concluded that one of the biggest factors in failure were small, almost undetectable leaks in the polymer skins that must withstand huge atmospheric pressure and up to 100 mph winds. Even a pinhole can shorten a balloon’s lifespan to a few days.

The Loon crew not only strengthened the fragile seams where leaks often occurred but took fanatic care in handling the envelopes. They used to walk on the flattened polymer in stocking feet. Now only super-fluffy socks will do. Google, being Google, tested this protocol before implementing it. Teams were created, one wearing conventional socks and the other donning fuzzy footwear. Both groups performed a rigidly proscribed line dance, as if the spread-out balloon polymers were Urban Cowboy-style dance floors. The fluffy-footed team created significantly fewer pinholes. “We’re getting the next five billion online through a line dance!” Teller says.

Google also improved Loon flight times by dramatically upgrading the altitude control system, increasing the vertical range of the balloons so they can catch more favorable winds. (Its balloons “steer” their way around the world by placing themselves in wind currents headed in the right direction.) As a result, it’s not unusual for Google to keep balloons flying for 75 days. One craft, dubbed Ibis 152 (Google uses bird species to nickname its balloons), has been aloft over 100 days and is still flying. An earlier balloon, Ibis 162, circled the globe three times before descending. (It completed one circumnavigation in 22 days, a world record.)

Illustration: Courtesy of Google Illustration: Courtesy of Google

The longer times aloft threatened to overwhelm the Loon software that adjusts the flight plans. “We didn’t have the infrastructure ready,” Cassidy says. When flights were shorter, Google could rely on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But since NOAA only supplies forecasts for 16 days out, Google now has to make sophisticated guesses using a giant database of historical wind and weather data. To plot the optimal path—one that maximizes battery life and avoids crummy weather conditions—Google’s software recalculates as often as once a minute. (During the long, speedy flight of Ibis 162, Google recalculated 8 million times.)

Google made a different kind of advance with Loon when it added the capability to send data using the LTE spectrum—making it possible for people to connect directly to the Internet with their mobile phones. (Loon’s original Wi-Fi connection required a base station and a special antenna.) Using LTE also helped Google boost the capacity of its connections. Recent Loon payloads are providing as much as 22 MB/sec to a ground antenna and 5 MB/sec to a handset.

With the advances made over the last year, Google has a clearer idea of how it might eventually make money with Loon. In addition to connecting the last few billion (and often cash-poor) Internet users, the project might serve already-connected people with fat wallets by partnering with existing providers to deliver a super-roaming experience. “It’s not limited to rural areas,” Teller says. “Even in the middle of Silicon Valley you can lose connections while driving; large buildings and hills can block the signals. Balloons can fill in dead spots.”

Cyrus, a radio engineer for Google, pre-tests a balloon’s LTE subsystem from a hotel balcony in the Piauí state capital, Teresina. Photo: Courtesy of Google Cyrus, a radio engineer for Project Loon, pre-tests a balloon’s LTE subsystem from a hotel balcony in the Piauí state capital, Teresina. Photo: Courtesy of Google

When Loon began, Teller’s biggest worry was that powerful telecommunications companies would view the project as a threat and attempt to snuff the project. But in part because LTE makes it possible for Google to interweave its service with existing mobile data networks—standard service in cities, Loon connectivity in more remote areas—the reaction has been the opposite. “Every telco wants to partner with us,” Cassidy says. Google is working with the regional giant Vivo and Telebras in its Brazil tests. It’s also working with Vodaphone in New Zealand. “They’re teaching us about what they need and how they can help,” Teller says.

Cassidy ticks off the goals for the next year: routine flights of 100 days, 100 balloons in the air at once (that’s four times the previous high), and then a full ring of between 300 to 400 balloons circling the globe to offer continuous service to a targeted area. Teller predicts that Loon may actually make enough progress to become operational, at least in the guise of a pilot program. Just where this will happen and how many people it will serve, he doesn’t say.

Not surprisingly, the Loon team is growing. Though Google won’t reveal headcounts, it allows that the muscle behind the balloon effort is comparable to other Google X projects like Glass or self-driving cars.

Still, Google seems to be hedging its bets on how to connect the world. Last April, it bought Titan Aerospace, a two-year-old company that makes high-altitude, solar powered drones that offer a non-inflatable approach to wireless Internet. (Facebook reportedly also bid on Titan; not long afterward it bought another drone company, Ascenta.). And earlier this month Google paid $500 million to acquire Skybox Imaging, a startup that makes low-cost satellites; though the orbiting payloads will be mainly used to augments its mapping operations, Google also said that the technology might eventually help improve Internet access.

Teller contends that the multi-pronged approach is not chaos but synergy. “The ethos of Google is to be loosely coupled,” he says. “If everyone is dependent on one approach, the whole system slows down.” He sees opportunities for collaboration. “Loon works with satellites as a backup system,” he says. “Titan Aerostar might need Loon’s wind data.”

Loon’s leaders acknowledge there are plenty of potential obstacles that may well pop their aspirations. But for now, Teller is optimistic. “On Loon’s two-year birthday, I would hope, instead of running experiments, we’ll have a more or less permanent set of balloons. In one or several countries, you will turn on your phone and talk to the balloons,” he says. “Yes, Loon will be offering service.”