Each week begins with a starter pistol and command: back to the frenzy, and keep it dumb. First out of the gate was Drudge with some saucy news: Christine Ford, accuser of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, got terrible reviews on Rate My Professors. Oh, wait, those reviews were for a different Christine Ford, Christine A. Ford, of a different school. We meant to slander Christine B. Ford. Never mind. But here’s a different story. Christine B. Ford is just angry that Brett Kavanaugh’s mom ruled against her parents in a foreclosure case 22 years ago. Oh, wait, she dismissed the foreclosure case. Never mind.

Meanwhile, on the other partisan side, Kevin de Léon, vying to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein, has berated Feinstein for an alleged “failure of leadership” over keeping Ford’s letter private. (Forget that Ford herself had requested this.) Then there was the CNN legal analyst who indicated that Kavanaugh, simply by hiring a lawyer, must be guilty of something. (That should make jury duty easier.) Then there were the thousands of condemnations of anyone who would dare question the timing. (Hey, eleventh-hour objections happen all the time. Haven’t you seen the “speak now or forever hold your piece” scene in Four Weddings and a Funeral?)

Moving on. Let’s sidestep any speculation over whether the incident happened as described. (Disclosure: I believe it did, but I have no more evidence than you.) Let’s also skip the debate over whether, if it did happen as described, it should disqualify Kavanaugh from the court. (You know all the arguments. Just mind the implications.) Let’s furthermore skip the debate over whether, even if Kavanaugh should be forgiven a teenaged offense of over 30 years ago, he should be blamed for lying about it today. (Yes, he should—but, unless we know that he’s lying, the discussion is pointless, surely.) Let’s instead consider what the latest developments mean for the various players: Kavanaugh, Republicans, the White House, and Democrats.

For Kavanaugh, it’s going to be a horrible couple of weeks. Next Monday, he and his accuser go back to the Senate to testify some more. He currently denies the accusation, either because it’s false or because it’s true and not provable. Either way, he can’t back out. That would look like guilty behavior. He must stay in the game until his allies tell him to quit. While he can be thankful that two women whom he dated—one in high school, one in college, both named Maura—have emerged to say he was above reproach, that’s just another note amid a din. Republicans are more focused on running the numbers. Unbending support or a journey to the wood chipper? They’ll see what the cost-benefit analysis yields. It’s an unsentimental business. Sorry, pal.

For expedient Republicans, these calculations are intricate. The G.O.P. already struggles with a gender gap—millennial females seem to find it as attractive as DDT—that it doesn’t want to widen. Republicans must therefore try to be gentlemanly toward Ford in a way they weren’t toward Anita Hill, whom they accused of perjury and much else, damaging themselves in the process. But they also know their voters want Kavanaugh confirmed. So it becomes a matter of swing voters versus base. If, in the eyes of swing voters, Brett Kavanaugh represents drunken sexual assault, then he might be too toxic for the Republican brand, even if he’s innocent. If, in the eyes of the base, he represents Republican steadfastness amid unfair attacks, then he’s a must-seat justice, even if he’s guilty. It’s a toughie. Fairness, of course, has nothing to do with it. For now, Republicans are likely to go easy on Ford but hard on the Democrats, accusing them of orchestrating the effort. (Mitch McConnell has already taken that tack.)