Rhino horn is often powdered and sold as a cure for anything from a cold, to cancer, to improving sexual performance, in countries including Vietnam and China. Credit:Andy Rain And though there has been a marginal reduction, there are other factors to consider. Firstly, because of the vastness of Kruger – 20,000 square kilometres, an area the size of Israel or Wales – it is impossible for the authorities to find all the carcasses and it is an accepted view that the kill numbers could be understated by up to 20 per cent. Secondly, as anti-poaching methods improve in Kruger, the poachers will move elsewhere to find rhinos. So, as the numbers go down in Kruger, they soar in other reserves such as KZN/Ezemvelo and North-West Parks. Tens of millions of dollars have been spent on anti-poaching measures and yet the total number of rhinos killed stubbornly refuses to come down. An example is the Warren Buffett Foundation, which has donated more than $US25 million to the anti-poaching campaign. But the enormity of the task of the Kruger Park rangers is immense. The border with Mozambique, where most of the poaching has originated in the past eight years, is approximately 360 kilometres long; the poachers are well-skilled in bushcraft, and more than 15 groups of poachers will be in Kruger on any given day. And there is still widespread corruption that takes the form of rangers – and other park staff – being bribed for information about the exact whereabouts of rhinos in the park.

It is impossible for the authorities to find all the rhino carcasses left behind by poachers and it is an accepted view that the kill numbers could be understated by up to 20 per cent. Credit:Brent Stirton Making the task even harder is the lifting of the ban on trade of rhino horn. The ruling by South Africa's highest court in April, which legalised domestic trade in horn, has raised emotions across the globe. It has been seen by many as a decision that could hasten the extinction of rhinos in the wild. "This is the death-knell for rhinos," said one delegate from the October 2016 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora. Enter John Hume, the largest private owner of rhinos on the planet. Hume, an avowed conservationist, has more than 1500 white rhinos at his property outside Johannesburg. His stated goal is to have enough rhinos to ensure 200 more are born each year. The tipping point – where the rhino kill rate exceeds the rhino birth rate – has long been reached. Credit:Beverly Joubert He dehorns all his rhinos in the hope that a dehorned rhino will not be attractive to poachers. Unfortunately, this does not always work – two of his dehorned rhinos were killed a few months ago. And this is despite Hume spending about $2 million on security every year.

Hume stashes his rhino horns in bank vaults around Johannesburg and Pretoria – conservative estimates put his cache at more than five tonnes. He is planning two auctions of rhino horn in coming months – online and a public auction – which are only possible as a result of the court's decision to legalise the trade in rhino horn. He has previously voiced his support for the trade to be legalised. "It's not the demand for rhino horn that's killing our rhino, it's the way that demand is currently supplied," he told London's Telegraph in 2016. "Up until 2008, we had no rhinos being poached in South Africa because demand was being supplied by legal sales from live rhino. Then they banned that trade and those sales were mirrored by rhino poaching deaths in Kruger National Park." The rhino's horn grows back, which means rhinos can produce more in their lifetime than those that are slaughtered by poachers, he says. Hume's auctions will infuriate those who oppose the trade, but it will also shed light on who actually buys the horn. Bear in mind that this trade in rhino horn is only permissible within South Africa, so who are the likely buyers? Certainly, some investors and collectors, but who else? People with intent to sell to international crime syndicates? The pro-trade block – mainly in South Africa – are convinced that this will drive down the price of illegally traded horn, currently sitting about $US70,000 per kilogram.

Rhino horn is often powdered and sold as a cure for anything from a cold, to cancer, to improving sexual performance, in countries including Vietnam and China. Those against the legal trade in rhino horn believe this will actually accelerate the demise of rhinos in South Africa – poachers will increase their activities as they bank on the extinction of the species. I have long held the view that the war on poaching will not succeed through the barrel of a gun. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been directed against poaching in the past five years and yet more than 5000 rhinos have been killed in the same period. This number is purely not sustainable. The tipping point – where the rhino kill rate exceeds the rhino birth rate – has long been reached. Another disturbing statistic is the number of poachers who have been killed during their incursions into Kruger and other parks. Estimates are that as many as 300 poachers have been killed in the past three years. Certainly, many of these poachers are driven by greed but the higher number is those who are killed trying to earn a living. Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world. Similarly, on the western side of Kruger, in communities such as Acornhoek and Bushbuck Ridge with hundreds of thousands of people, unemployment reaches almost 50 per cent of the population. It is my firm belief that the war on poaching will not succeed. The staggering amounts of money at stake are too great and, in terms of risk, shooting rhinos is very low for the crime syndicates who fuel the trade. They also believe that life in Africa is very cheap and that there is a never-ending supply of potential poachers who will risk their lives to get a piece of the action.

The only way to at least slow the poaching rate is to engage such communities. A few years ago, I met with the South African High Commissioner to Australia, Her Excellency, Koleka Anita Mqulwana, who told me: "The communities have no connection to wildlife – they see no value. It is the same with trees. My people have no connection with trees – they see them as sources of light, of warmth and for cooking. So they cut the forests down." She is right. Local communities need to be educated to understand that animals such as rhinos and elephants are worth more to them alive than dead. This is a huge task and, unfortunately, it will take a generation or more. It will be too late. Ray Dearlove is the founder of the Australian Rhino Project, a not-for-profit organisation committed to assist in the preservation of the rhinoceros species.