In a development that experts previously believed to be a scientific impossibility, this upcoming New Year's Eve promises to be even more miserable than the calendar's worst holiday usually manages to be thanks to a cruel, record-breaking cold snap hovering over about one-quarter of the continental United States. Most of the Great Lakes region remains buried in snow, and in Massachusetts, frozen sharks are now turning up on otherwise-deserted beaches. The Times Square Ball Drop is still set to go forward, but as if you needed any more reasons to steer clear of Midtown on Sunday, forecasters are predicting an overnight low of around 10 degrees.

Never one to miss an opportunity to make a news story about himself, Donald Trump fired up the Twitter machine on Thursday and put his trademark spin on the same bit of sage meteorological analysis proffered by your embarrassing second cousin on Facebook every time a blizzard hits: Boy, for all I hear about global warming these days, it sure is cold out, innit?

Admittedly, neither arguing with simpletons nor engaging with trolls is ever a prudent use of time, and taking Donald Trump's musings on the merits of climate science too seriously risks doing both of those things. Nonetheless, on the off-chance that anyone with whom you regularly interact still wonders how the planet can be getting warmer when the weather around them is getting colder, I have prepared this helpful, concise, and totally even-keeled explainer.

How can global warming be real? Look at all this snow!

Oh, for God's sake. [Grits teeth, closes eyes, counts slowly to 10] Okay! "Global warming" does not mean that human activity has transformed the planet into a season-free perpetual desert. The term refers to temperature changes that might seem slight, but that nonetheless have a profound effect on this delicate global ecosystem. A warmer planet means warmer oceans, and warmer oceans mean more moisture in the atmosphere, according to actual scientists. For most of the year, this means heavier rains than usual. But when it gets cold, all that excess moisture returns to Earth in the form of—you guessed it—gobs of road-enveloping, flight-canceling, week-ruining snow.

I dunno, man. Sounds like if the air is warmer, the snow should be melting before it hits the ground.

[Inhales deeply, bites lip to keep from screaming, presses on] That's not all, either. The intensity of a Nor'easter depends in part on the contrast between the temperatures of the colliding Arctic air masses and Gulf Stream ocean waters that create each one. Climate change leads to heavier-than-usual precipitation, yes, but it also causes the mechanism that delivers all that snow to your neighborhood to become more dangerous, too.

Alright, but even if there are big snowstorms now, won't they stop eventually, if global temperatures continue to rise as you claim they will?

Yes! Yes they will! [Chuckles in surprise and delight] I'm so glad you realize that! This is a key fact to understand about climate change: As temperatures move out of optimal snowfall ranges, big-ticket blizzards will probably become fewer and far between, but the moisture that composes those blizz—

So, doesn't that mean that global warming is actually a good thing?

No. [Balls both fists in rage, looks to the sky for help that I already know will never arrive] It just means that as densely-populated areas around the world continue to be swallowed by ever-rising oceans at alarming rates of speed, you will have fewer snow days to plan your big move inland.

I dunno, man. It's really cold outside right now.

[Sighs defeatedly] Happy New Year to you, too, Administrator Pruitt. The frozen sharks send their regards.