No one should be so confident or so reckless as to predict the best-picture winner nearly a year in advance, but here at the Little Gold Men podcast, we are willing to accept that risk. On this week’s episode, Decider’s Joe Reid joins Mike Hogan, Katey Rich, and Joanna Robinson to take a look at the contenders in the year ahead—at least, the ones we know about already. Recent Oscar winners Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins will be back in the hunt together again, elbowing their way against fellow winners like Alfonso Cuaron, Ang Lee, Steve McQueen, and Martin Scorsese. There’s one movie called Boy Erased and another called Beautiful Boy, and both star actors from Lady Bird. Three recent best-actress nominees—Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie, and Emma Stone — will be playing royals. Rami Malek will be playing Freddie Mercury, the lead singer of Queen. There‘s a lot to take in!

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, we also have to take stock of our bold predictions from this time last year, when Dunkirk looked like a solid best-picture contender, but then again, so did Detroit. Listen to last year’s episode here for even more bold and/or foolish predictions, from high hopes for The Glass Castle to some dead-on predictions on behalf of Gary Oldman, Mary J. Blige, and Frances McDormand. And then listen to this week‘s episode below, where we reckon with those choices, and kick ourselves repeatedly for not even mentioning Get Out.

Here, for the record, are the absurdly early best-picture predictions made in this episode:

Boy Erased ( Richard Lawson )

) If Beale Street Could Talk (Joe Reid)

Mary Queen of Scots (Mike Hogan)

Beautiful Boy (Joanna Robinson)

Untitled Dick Cheney Project (Katey Rich)

You can also find this week‘s Little Gold Men on Apple Podcasts, where reviews and ratings are much appreciated!