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By the end, his victory seemed inevitable, the fulfillment of dozens of polls predicting his win. But before that April night it was anything but. “In my circles John Tory — January, February, March — was regarded as a guy who would inevitably explode,” said Brian Kelcey, who managed David Soknacki’s mayoral run.

In interviews, senior officials from Tory’s camp, as well as players from three other mayoral teams, all pointed to that night — when Mr. Ford fled the city following reports of a second crack tape — as a crucial turning point in the race. In the weeks afterward, Mr. Tory would unveil his signature plan, SmartTrack, and begin his slow climb up the polls.

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By the time the summer ended, and the city started paying attention, he was firmly in first place. That allowed him to make the most important argument of the 2014 election. “I think everybody on the campaign agreed that the number one issue has been, let’s not have a Ford as our mayor,” Mr. Allison said. And in the final weeks, it was obvious Mr. Tory was the candidate best placed to make that happen.

John, quite frankly, I think he was flattered by it, but he certainly didn’t have the decision made

If the second crack tape was the turning point in the campaign that made Mr. Tory mayor, the first one was a catalyst for the movement that drafted him. A team of high level provincial and federal Liberals and Conservatives, many of whom had worked against each other in campaigns going back decades, began to meet informally in the summer of 2013. Their goal: find a way to replace Rob Ford. The committee met throughout that summer and into the fall in Bay Street board rooms and consultants’ offices. From the beginning it included John Capobianco, a heavyweight Conservative, Liberal organizer Bob Richardson, former Toronto deputy mayor Case Ootes, pollster Robert Hutton, former council candidate Ken Chan and a handful of others. “We all agreed that we need to get a new mayor in Toronto,” Mr. Capobianco said. “I think that” — the crack video — “would have been the catalyst for things happening.”