It is easier – far, far, far easier – for a world-class sprinter to finish a 100-meter dash in under 9.9 seconds than it is for a fight promoter to sell more than 1 million pay-per-views on a single fight card.

As of Aug. 19, there have been 202 instances of a man running the 100 meters in 9.89 seconds or less, which includes Usain Bolt’s ridiculous 9.58 seconds that set the world record in Berlin in 2009.

There have been less than 50 fight cards that have hit 1 million pay-per-view sales and less than 10 that have hit 2 million. Yet, it’s probably a safe bet that the Oct. 6 pay-per-view in Las Vegas between lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and former champion Conor McGregor, which will headline UFC 229 at T-Mobile Arena, will surpass 2 million.

The pay-per-view between YouTubers Logan Paul and KSI recorded 800,000 buys, but at $10 a pop, it generated $8 million in revenue. It’s good money, to be sure, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to most major MMA and boxing cards.

The UFC charges $64.99 for its pay-per-views. At 2 million sales, that will mean Nurmagomedov-McGregor could gross roughly $130 million in pay-per-view revenue alone.

UFC president Dana White rarely talks about pay-per-view projections and when he does, it’s usually in the most general of terms. He’ll say something like, “It’s going to be huge,” or “It’s trending as big as anything we’ve ever done.”

View photos KSI vs. Logan Paul might have sold 800,000 pay-per-view buys, but it should be considered a disappointment. (Reuters) More

But with Nurmagomedov-McGregor, White said flatly, “I am confident it will do 2 million on pay-per-view.”

Tickets for the fight sold out in three hours and will produce a near-record UFC gate in excess of $15 million. The tickets are in such demand that White himself purchased five tickets and UFC CEO Ari Emanuel bought six.

The UFC normally comps its fighters’ free tickets for its shows, but Nurmagomedov-McGregor will be an exception. Daniel Cormier, the UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champion, purchased two tickets at $7,500 apiece. And he won’t even be in the prime seats, since the top tickets that night at T-Mobile Arena have gone for $10,000 apiece.

Most of those, but not all, will be purchased by casinos for their customers.

“We’ve had some regular people pay $10,000 for a ticket,” White said. “But when I say regular people, I should say some very rich, regular people.”

Here is the kicker, though: White isn’t ruling out the possibility of selling 3 million pay-per-views. While the official number for the Floyd Mayweather-McGregor fight last year is 4.4 million and is a company record, the UFC has never promoted an MMA card that has hit 2 million. At 3 million, Nurmagomedov-McGregor would come close to doubling the biggest UFC pay-per-view shows.

White is confident of doing that on the heels of a pay-per-view boxing match between middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez on Sept. 15 that will also be at T-Mobile Arena. Their first fight, on Sept. 16, 2017, sold 1.4 million on pay-per-view and expectations are that the rematch will exceed it.

Promoters slapped an $84.99 price tag on Alvarez-Golovkin II, so it will be fascinating to see the impact it has on sales. Oscar De La Hoya is promoting Alvarez-Golovkin and was on the other end of it last year. He was second, three weeks after Mayweather-McGregor was held. Because the fights were so expensive, there was a feeling that those who bought Mayweather-McGregor might be reticent to buy Alvarez-Golovkin I.

This time, De La Hoya gets the head start with Alvarez-Golovkin II, but White is hardly concerned. It’s because he has everything a pay-per-view generally needs to sell big: Huge names, a compelling matchup, oodles of free media coverage and heavy promotion.

Because the fight wasn’t finalized until Aug. 3, the UFC didn’t get an early start on promoting Nurmagomedov-McGregor. But it will have a huge late push in the final two weeks that will work in its favor, as fans will be inundated with it as the fight draws closer.