Alabama voters will decide March 3 whether to move from an elected state school board to one appointed by the Governor. A yes vote on Amendment One sends the elected state school board home. A no vote keeps the board in place.

Supporters of the amendment say one reason to change is because most states in the top 10 on the Nation’s Report Card, where Alabama ranked dead last in math and near last in reading, have appointed state school boards.

So AL.com looked at those top 10 states on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), a test given to a sample of students in the 4th grade and 8th grade in each state every other year in reading and math. We looked to see if there were any differences among elected and appointed boards. And there are.

First, some caution: NAEP experts say there is no way to connect any one policy decision (like who governs the schools) to success on the NAEP. Experts also caution against ranking the states.

We are doing it here because Alabama’s low ranking on the NAEP is one of the main talking points that supporters of Amendment One use to argue for an appointed state school board.

Looking at only the top 10 states for each grade and subject area, states with appointed boards have an edge over elected boards, particularly where math is concerned, and not simply because there are more appointed boards than elected ones. But getting a top ranking on the NAEP isn’t something that happens just because you have an appointed board.

And before you ask, yes, there is a weak correlation with how much money is spent to educate students and where states rank on the NAEP, but there are exceptions. For example, see Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida, all of whom are ranked higher and spend less per student on education than Alabama.

And while NAEP rankings are lower in states with higher levels of student poverty, there are exceptions. For example, again, see Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida, all of whom are ranked higher and have higher levels of student poverty than Alabama.

The series of maps below show NAEP rankings, shown by the number, and the method of choosing a state school board shown by color. Green shades indicate an appointed board, blue shades indicate an elected board. Gray indicates the state has no governing school board. Yellow and orange indicate the state has a combination of appointed and elected state school board members.

The Department of Defense schools (ranked in the top 5 in all areas) and the District of Columbia (ranked in the bottom 10 in all areas) are not included on the map.

Here’s 4th grade math. Click here for an interactive version.

The map shows the type of state school governance by color and the state's ranking on the 2019 NAEP 4th grade math results.

Here’s 8th grade math. Click here for an interactive version.

The map shows the type of state school governance by color and the state's ranking on the 2019 NAEP 8th grade math results.

Here’s 4th grade reading. Click here for an interactive version.

The map shows the type of state school governance by color and the state's ranking on the 2019 NAEP 4th grade reading results.

And here’s 8th grade reading. Click here for an interactive version.

The map shows the type of state school governance by color and the state's ranking on the 2019 NAEP 8th grade reading results.

Here’s a link to a list of states, complete with rankings in each area on the 2019 NAEP test. As always, the list is best seen on a large screen.

It’s one thing to look at the map, and it’s another to do the data wrangling to see if one type of board outshines the other.

The wrangling helps determine whether elected and appointed state school boards are represented in the top 10 and bottom 10 in the same proportion they exist across the country. This is an overly simple way to look at it, but it is a place to start. Focusing only on states, neither Department of Defense nor the District of Columbia schools were included in this analysis.

For example, given that 36 out of 50, or 72% of the total, state school boards are appointed, all things being equal, you’d expect to see 7 in the top 10 and 7 in the bottom 10. And because one in 10 state school boards are elected, you’d expect to see 1 in the top 10 and 1 in the bottom 10.

Focusing only on states, neither Department of Defense nor the District of Columbia schools were included in this analysis.

So what does the data show? Looks like appointed state school boards have the edge over elected ones.

If you isolate the top 10 states in each grade and subject combination, eight of the top 10 have appointed state school boards in both grades in math and in 4th grade reading.

However, only 6 of the top 10 states in 8th grade reading have appointed state school boards (fewer than would be expected) while two of the top 10 have elected ones (more than you’d expect to find).

What about the other end of the rankings? Appointed boards again come out looking better.

In both grades and subject levels, there are fewer appointed state school boards than you’d expect to find in the bottom 10.

Two of the bottom 10 states in both grades in reading and in 4th grade math have elected boards (20% of the total in the bottom 10), which is more than you’d expect to find.

Related: Alabama school board member threatens lawsuit if Amendment One passes

Also worth a look are the four states that have no governing state board of education. Two of those states, Minnesota and Wisconsin, have top 10 rankings in 8th grade math and Minnesota is in the top 10 in 4th grade math. Wisconsin also appears in the top 10 for 8th grade math. That’s more than you’d expect to find at the top, given there are only four in the entire country.

What happens if you look at, say, the top 20? In that case, elected state school boards do well in both grades in reading and in 8th grade math. Appointed boards shine in 4th grade reading.

And states with no state school board do well in math at both levels.

Of course, NAEP scores—and any student outcome measures—are affected by much more than how the state school board is selected.

So, depending on whether you’re looking at the top 10 or the top 20, appointed state school boards either shine or not, respectively.

Any form of governance is only as good as the people doing the governing. Asking voters to approve Amendment One is a way to replace all of the state board members at the same time.

While Gov. Ivey has said this effort isn't about any particular board member, it isn't lost on this observer that the past few years have been particularly full of turmoil for this particular elected state school board.

One thing is for certain: Alabama voters will have the final say. And whether Amendment One is voted up or down, there will still be a lot of work to do—beyond the choice of state school board members—to improve Alabama’s NAEP rankings and student outcomes.

Related: How to find and read your school’s report card

AL.com used information from the National Association of State Boards of Education and the Education Commission of the States for information on which model of governance is used in each state.