How do Reds fix the bullpen?

This is the first in a periodic series looking at the questions the Reds face this offseason. First up: How do they fix the bullpen?

The first thing I would warn against is trying to do so on the free agent market. The Reds did that last offseason when they added Kevin Gregg and Burke Badenhop just before spring training began. We all know how that worked out.

Gregg was a disaster. Badenhop was decent after a horrendous start. He had a 2.52 ERA after May 20. But the Reds face a tough choice with him: Either pay him $4 million for 2016 or refuse the option and pay the $1.5 million buyout.

With little chance to compete in 2016, I would not even give out those relatively cheap free agent deals. My one caveat would be if Aroldis Chapman is traded – and he almost assuredly will be – I'd consider adding a veteran closer to a short, reasonable contract. The Braves signed Jason Grilli to a two-year, $8 million deal last year for example.

But whoever they sign to replace Chapman is not going to be as good as Chapman. So that doesn't fix the bullpen.

The Reds have to look at using some of the young arms in relief. The club always tries to turn its best arms into starters (the abandoned attempt with Chapman notwithstanding).

But some of the starters aren't going to make the rotation. Homer Bailey (when healthy), Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias are locks to be in the rotation.

That leaves Michael Lorenzen, Keyvius Sampson, John Lamb, Jon Moscot, Josh Smith, Brandon Finnegan and David Holmberg competing for two spots. All made starts for the Reds this year and showed they had the stuff to get out major leaguers – albeit not consistently enough to be successful starters as rookies.

The Reds also have top prospect Robert Stephenson and hard-throwing lefties Amir Garrett and Cody Reed. They probably have higher ceilings than any of the pitchers competing for spots in the rotation. But I see the Reds keeping them in the minors until at least May to delay their arbitration eligibility.

Bryan Price is on record as saying he sees Lorenzen as a starter. But Lorenzen, with a fastball that touches 98 mph, could really help the bullpen in '16. Finnegan has proven he can be an effective reliever. Sampson's stuff seems suited for the bullpen as well.

If the Reds want to be competitive in '16, you could make a strong argument to use all three as relievers and live with Lamb and Moscot in the rotation until Stephenson, Reed and Garrett are ready.

The harsh reality is the Reds are going to need a lot of arms to fix the bullpen. Of the pitchers who ended the year in the bullpen, who can you pencil as a sure thing in 2016?

My list:

J.J. Hoover: He was good until the innings wore him down late. He had a 1.05 ERA over a 54-game stretch.

Chapman: But the wise move is to trade him.

Pedro Villarreal and Jumbo Diaz will probably make it. Villarreal is valuable as the long man, and Diaz throws 98 and doesn't make a lot of money. Tony Cingrani's got to figure it out again. His ERA was nearly 9.00 in his last stint with the Reds.

I'd bring back Sam LeCure. But he's a free agent, so it will be his call.

The temptation for the Reds will be to bring some veteran minor league free agents and give them a chance to make the club. That can be dangerous. When guys like that have to make the team, they come in ready to go and tend to look great in spring. We've seen that from Josias Manzanillo to Gregg.

I'd rely on the young arms to fix the bullpen instead.