Republicans started the election cycle with designs on expanding their Senate majority, but the GOP's candidates are far behind Democrats in fundraising going into 2018.

The numbers are stark: No Republican running for a Democratic-held seat raised more than $1 million from contributors in the fourth quarter of last year, but two Democrats running for seats held by Republicans did. By contrast, of the 10 vulnerable Democrats up for reelection this year in states President Donald Trump carried in 2016, all but West Virginia’s Joe Manchin raised more than $1 million.


Dean Heller of Nevada, the only Republican seeking reelection in a state Hillary Clinton won, raised just $821,000 —an amount that his likely Democratic challenger nearly doubled.

Republicans think the passage of the new tax law last year can change their fortunes and are confident they’ll have enough money in the bank to contest seats across the map this November, but the fundraising news is grim across the 2018 Senate map. Two of the big Democratic outside groups charged with helping the party win Senate seats, Senate Majority PAC and Majority Forward, outraised the Mitch McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation by a narrow margin in 2017.

“I think people should be concerned, but not panicking,” said Rob Jesmer, a former executive director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Let’s see what happens with a full quarter after tax reform.”

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Only five Republicans running for Senate brought in more than $1 million in the fourth quarter: Indiana businessman Mike Braun, who loaned his Senate campaign $1.75 million; Michigan businessman Sandy Pensler, who gave his campaign a whopping $5 million; Rep. Martha McSally in Arizona; and Rep. Marsha Blackburn and former Rep. Stephen Fincher, who each pulled in large sums to lift their runs to replace Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.).

On the other side, Democratic senators in states Trump won are amassing large war chests. Claire McCaskill has $9.1 million on hand as she prepares to run for reelection in Missouri. Her likely GOP challenger, the much-hyped state Attorney General Josh Hawley, has just $1.2 million on hand. Indiana's Joe Donnelly has $5.3 million in the bank, while all three of his challengers have around $2.4 million each — and are likely to spend much of it bashing one another ahead of a May primary.

In Pennsylvania, a state where Trump broke through last cycle, Bob Casey has $8.6 million in the bank. His highest-profile challenger, Rep. Lou Barletta, raised just $500,000 and has around $1 million on hand.

Even when Republicans have good quarters, like McSally’s $1.1 million haul in the race to replace retiring Republican Jeff Flake, they find a Democrat bringing in more: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema raised $1.6 million and has $5.1 million on hand — and unlike McSally, she isn’t facing a contested primary.

And despite being out of the majority, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised $54 million in 2017, to the NRSC’s $41.5 million, with the latter group going five months in a row spending more than it raised before December’s $3.4 million haul broke the streak. The failure of health care reform in Congress crippled donations during the later half of the year, and the committee entered 2018 with a massive $9.5 million in debt, more than any House or Senate campaign committee this century. (The DSCC is free of campaign debt but has a mortgage on its headquarters: a $5 million rowhouse near the Capitol.)

“The NRSC set a record for its best off-year fundraising of all time in 2017," said spokeswoman Katie Martin. “To anyone who may criticize the debt left from the previous cycle, please note that the committee successfully used those resources to keep the Senate majority [in 2016] and ensure a conservative was confirmed to the Supreme Court."

Republicans have repeatedly suggested tax reform would solve their fundraising woes. The NRSC said frustration with a lack of legislative progress caused millions in donations to disappear over the summer, as the Senate failed to repeal Obamacare.

Democrats see these as excuses.

“From nasty primaries, to second-tier candidates, and an enthusiasm gap that helped them lose a Senate seat in Alabama, it is a choose-your-own-adventure situation when explaining these disastrous fundraising numbers,” Senate Majority PAC spokesman Chris Hayden said.

But there are signs Republicans could be in for a windfall in the opening months of 2018. GOP donors and fundraisers interviewed by POLITICO in the wake of tax reform were thrilled by Congress' action, which they hope will rev up voters and set the stage for more legislative victories in the year ahead.

“We’ve been enthusiastic about the tax bill,” Dallas-area donor and fundraiser Doug Deason. “Congress did a great job.”

Deason was, until recently, a vocal critic of Republicans in Congress, and in the Senate in particular. He led a group of donors in Texas to halt donations to Republican candidates last fall, which included canceling scheduled fundraisers for candidates. Deason and his father, businessman Darwin Deason, have resumed giving to candidates and plan to give “a lot of money” to groups selling tax reform to the public, Doug Deason said.

Republicans are increasingly dependent on these groups. The NRSC has taken a back seat to free-spending outside groups, including Senate Leadership Fund, which spent $85 million on independent expenditures to the NRSC’s $40 million last cycle. The Koch brothers network, which typically spends tens of millions on Senate races through its Freedom Partners Action Fund, announced last week it would spend $400 million this cycle on policy and politics. And GOP operatives remain confident major donors will pull through to fund outside groups to provide air cover in any competitive races.

“It’s hard to find an example of a Senate candidate who lost because of a lack of money,” Jesmer said.

