[text_output]When I was making my pre-season predictions, I was confident the Rangers would be a second-tier contender, despite their perceived lack of center depth at the time. The reason for this? I was sure the Rangers easily had a top-10 defense in the NHL, with top-5 upside. The Rangers had what I thought at the time was an upper-echelon top-4 in McDonagh, Shattenkirk, Skjei and Smith, and I thought they had a variety of options to eventually find a strong third pair between Nick Holden, Marc Staal, Tony DeAngelo, Neil Pionk, Ryan Graves and Alexei Bereglazov. At the very worst, I figured the team would at least be an average defensive unit, which still represented a significant step forward from what we saw for much of the previous two seasons.

Fast-forward to today, 30 games into the NHL season, and the Rangers are, statistically speaking at least, comfortably among the very worst teams in the entire NHL in their own zone. The eye test also aligns with the statistics for what it’s worth. As I’m typing this, I just scrolled though the timelines of a few noted “eye test” proponents that I follow on Twitter—I like to follow people with varying opinions to my own to ensure I never get stuck in an echo chamber of opinions—and all of them, as well as my own eye test, seem to agree with the notion that the Rangers have been brutal in their own zone for much of the season.

When you watch the Rangers, you see a team that time and time again leaves talented opposing forwards wide open at the top of the slot, one of the highest danger areas on the ice. You also see a team that struggles to clear the zone at times, thus allowing sustained pressure more often than they should, and one that has been weak with cleaning up rebounds in front of their own goalie. Lastly, the team far too often pinches inappropriately in the offensive zone, leading to an odd man rush the other way.

This gif here, courtesy of Brandon Fitzpatrick (do yourself a favor and follow him on Twitter), shows a perfect example of an inappropriate pinch by Ryan McDonagh during the loss to the Stars on Monday night. The puck bounces out towards the top of the offensive zone; Ryan McDonagh is at the point, with no support behind him. It’s a 50-50 play as far as who can realistically get to the puck first—McDonagh or the charging Remi Elie—and then when you also consider the puck is bouncing, it should’ve been an easy decision by McDonagh to play conservatively and back skate. Instead, he pinches in and makes a failed attempt to poke the puck back deep into the offensive zone. The puck hops over McDonagh’s stick (possibly was poked over by Elie), and Elie is off to the races with a breakaway on Ondrej Pavelec.[/text_output]

Ryan McDonagh with a brutal pinch, but as Sam Rosen just said "Welcome to the Ondrej Pavelec show" #NYR pic.twitter.com/n3gx14uxM5 — Fitz (@FitzyGSN) December 12, 2017

Is this what it feels like to watch a Sabres game? Just sloppy play by everyone, but Pavelec is keeping this one close #NYR pic.twitter.com/YrZ4rCEgmM — Fitz (@FitzyGSN) December 12, 2017

[text_output]In the following gif, created again by Fitzy from the same Stars game, we see a lazy clearing attempt by the Rangers, which is easily intercepted and kept in the zone by the Stars. Next, a Stars forward puts himself right at the doorstep of Pavs, with little resistance from Nick Holden, and positions himself in a way to easily receive a pass from the boards to deflect it on goal, resulting in a very high quality scoring chance for the Stars. This is a picture perfect example of how to NOT go about attempting to clear the puck, and how to NOT defend a forward in front of your own net.[/text_output][text_output]These sorts of plays are not exclusive to the Stars game. If you go back and rewatch the Rangers throughout the season, even in games they looked strong and won, you will see multiple instances every night of inexcusable and lazy play in their own zone, resulting in high quality scoring chances for the opposition.

Most of you reading this have watched many of the games, and are probably well aware of the fact that the team has not looked good in their own zone for most of this season. But what does the data say? One word, or onomatopoeia if we are being technical: WOOF. The analytics don’t just paint the Rangers as a bad defensive team, they paint them as one of the very worst defensive teams in the entire NHL.

According to Corsica data, through the first 30 games in the season, the Rangers are the 3rd worst team in the entire NHL in 5v5 Corsi against per-60, allowing 61.18 shot attempts per hour, better than only the injury-ravaged Ducks (63.23) and abysmal Arizona Coyotes (61.53). Do you prefer Fenwick instead of Corsi, which accounts for only unblocked shot attempts? The Rangers are also 3rd worst in the NHL in 5v5 Fenwick against per-60 at 45.91 unblocked shot attempts per hour, better than only the Ducks (40.05) and Coyotes (40.01). Do you think shot attempt metrics are garbage, and think only shots on goal matter? Good news, the Rangers rise to 5th worst in the NHL in 5v5 shots against per-60 with 32.87, in front of the Ducks, Panthers, Blackhawks and Devils. Score adjusting the data does not do the Rangers any favors either for the record, as the team still ranks bottom-6 in the NHL in each of the provided metrics.

Personally, I don’t think shot metrics paint the whole story, and that it is critical to look at shot quality-based metrics, such as expected goals and high danger chance totals, to really understand how well (or poorly) a team has performed. Bad news for me, the Rangers somehow perform even worse when you account for shot quality. Corsica’s expected goals model ranks the Rangers dead last in the entire NHL in terms of 5v5 expected goals against per-60, allowing 2.87 expected goals per-hour. As a reminder, expected goals uses a model that considers a myriad of shot characteristics to determine quality, such as shot type, distance from the net, whether it was a rebound, game state and shot angle. For context, the Ducks and Coyotes have the second and third highest xGA/60 totals, at 2.68 and 2.59, respectively. Natural Stat Trick’s 5v5 high danger chances against per-60 stat, which illustrates the amount of high quality scoring chances yielded by a team per-hour, also comfortably ranks the Rangers dead last in the NHL, allowing 13.08 high danger chances per hour.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”1184″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]One thing that I’m sure some of you are thinking is that at the end of the day, none of this matters, and the only thing that truly matters is goals against. While I’d argue that these statistics are far superior to goals when it comes to predicting future success, as far as analyzing what has already happened you do have a point (well, sort of), what truly matters are the goals allowed. The Rangers currently rank a paltry 25th in the NHL in 5v5 goals allowed per-60, but rocket up to 13th in the NHL in all situation goals allowed per-60. So, if you are looking for a silver lining regarding how the defense has performed so far, it is that they have not allowed many goals against during special teams play.

Despite the Rangers average standing in goals allowed across all situations, no matter how you slice it, the team has been not good in their own zone so far this season. However, there is reason for optimism. First and foremost, both Rangers goalies are sporting positive adjusted (delta) save percentages, which illustrates the difference between a goalie’s expected save percentage given the quality of chances faced and their actual save percentage (for more information on goalie fancy stats, check out my Beginner’s Guide on the topic). We have already established that the Rangers have comfortably been one of the worst teams in the NHL in allowing high quality scoring chances, so it is a good sign that the goalies are at least stepping up to the plate.

There is another, slightly more sarcastic, reason for optimism. The Rangers can’t perform much worse than they already have, can they? I mean, I’m sure they COULD if they put their minds to it, but realistically, the Rangers should only be able to go up from here. At the time of his benching earlier in the season, Brendan Smith was the single worst defenseman in the entire NHL in terms of expected goals against per-60 while he was on the ice. I apologize that I cannot recall his exact numbers, but I did look it up the day he was benched, and he was literally the worst defenseman in the entire NHL in that statistic among defenseman with a qualified amount of ice time. He hasn’t quite played up to his lofty performances in last year’s playoffs since, but he certainly has been better, and I anticipate he will continue to get better.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”1185″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]And then there is Ryan McDonagh, the team’s captain. He underlying analytics are paltry compared to what you’d expect from your team’s top defenseman. Currently, among the 7 Ranger defenseman that have logged at least 100 minutes of ice time, he ranks 3rd in Corsi against per-60, 5th in Fenwick against per-60, 6th in shots against per-60, 6th in expected goals against per-60, and dead freaking last in actual goals against per-60 (all data courtesy of Corsica, score adjusted and 5v5). Those number are completely unacceptable for a guy that should be the anchor of your defense, and whom some thought could be a fringe Norris competitor this year.

If I’m being completely honest, McDonagh appears to be hurt to me. He missed a few games with that abdominal injury, has been given numerous maintenance days off from practice, and clearly does not look like himself while he’s on the ice. To my eye test at least, he is not skating nearly as well as he used to, which is severely inhibiting his ability to defend. Particularly, he seems to be struggling to pivot and then accelerate, which is usually a clear red flag that something is not right with the player.

This gif here from the Capitals game on December 8, courtesy of Shayna Goldman (another must-follow on Twitter), perfectly demonstrates why I think Ryan McDonagh is not 100%. In this play, Tom Wilson blows by McDonagh by simply swinging a bit wide, and then cutting in towards the net. When Wilson swings wide, McDonagh takes a poor angle and reaches to poke the puck from Wilson. Wilson, who is no slouch skater but also isn’t Connor McDavid, seizes this opportunity and blows right past McDonagh and then cuts in on Henrik. The Ryan McDonagh of previous years probably can still catch up and prevent the scoring opportunity from Wilson, which is likely why he decided to take the initial approach he chose in the first place. However, this current version of McDonagh, who clearly is not skating like his old self, cannot catch up, and attempts a feeble poke check from behind Wilson at the last second, which ended up contributing to knocking the puck into the net.[/text_output]

[text_output]I still firmly believe that Ryan McDonagh is a top-tier defensive player in the NHL. I believe that he is playing hurt, and there is ample evidence to support this. If McDonagh can get healthy, if the previously under-performing players like Smith can continue to improve, and if the team can continue to settle into the system and roles assigned to them, then I’m confident the Rangers can at least be a league-average defense going forward. I know that is a lot of ifs, and I’ve given up hope on the defensive ever meeting my lofty pre-season expectations, but I firmly believe that there is enough upward regression likely to happen to make the team at least average defensively. If the offense can continue playing the way it has for most of the season, the goalies continue to impress, and the defense can become just average, then I’m confident this team will earn a playoff spot, and be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs.[/text_output]