We live in exciting times. It's my belief that "you personally" will most likely die of starvation or conflict between 2040 to 2075. You will experience a collapse of human civilization, a 90% die-off of humans, a destruction of the ecosystem, a loss of access to mined and drilled resources, and a dark age from which your descendent's will not reemerge.

If your kids survive to 2100 they will have been cannibals and will live like 17th century serfs -- no electricity, no running water, no schools, no medicine, and life will be short, nasty, and brutish.

Your first task in preparing for this tour is to decide if I have any good reasons for believing this.

a) If you think I don't, for example, technology will solve all my worries, then

your view of the future means we don't have to change civilization's course.

b) If after investigation, you find that I have good reasons, your second task is to

use what you have learned about how civilizations develop to

chart a different course.

Preparation for Tour (grasping the problem and solution)

VIEW 5 videos (30 min)

Losing Our Energy Slaves 10 min decreasing energy predicts collapse

Underestimating Overpopulation 9 min too many people for sustainability

How civilizations collapse? systemic feedback predicts collapse

The Scarcity - Conflict death spiral (4.2 min)

The system trips the death spiral (1.4 min)

Human behavior trips the death spiral (5.3 min)

(first three parts of Overpopulation Means Civilization Collapse

a 10 part series-- later parts not required preparation)

READING 40 minutes

SKIL Note 80 ==> "100 times Too Many People"

"Too many people and what can be done about it" (1000 words)

SKIL Note 100 ==> A Sustainable Civilization

What does a sustainable civilization look like. (5000 words)

(if you want more? see SKIL notes 80-105 click here)

Tour Group Activities

How much change sustains the best of human civilization?

How Much Degrowth is Enough? 15 min

based on available energy

How much population decline saves civilization? 6.3 minutes

based on peace and soil preservation

How to implement change

The Human Predicament and What to Do About It 10 min

Change the Course invite video 12 min

What is the path forward to deal with the predicament?

Unwinding the Human Predicament

working paper for discussion if there is time

Testing the viability of a proposed civilization's design

Sustainable Civilization Analysis 10 min

Sustainable civilizations require that human behavior be driven by abstraction

What Collected Behavior Creates Sustainability? 22 min

Jack Alpert alpert@skil.org www.skil.org 913 708 2554