As a member of ESPN’s SweetSpot blog network covering the Colorado Rockies, we’ve been fortunate enough to be included in the new ESPN Forecast Panel which is being used to preview the 2014 Major League Baseball season.

This year, ESPN decided to create a diverse panel of 140 people with MLB expertise to project the win-loss outcomes of each team as well as the playoff race and the various awards. In addition (available to ESPN Insider), the panel’s predictions were compared against Dan Szymborksi’s ZiPS projection system. Well, the results have been tallied and Eric Garcia McKinley and I (Richard Bergstrom) are excited to share with you how much we aligned and where we differed from the rest of the ESPN Forecast panel and from ZiPS. We will take a look at areas where Eric and I differed, then combine our two predictions into a “Zingers” projection and compare that to the ESPN Forecast Panel and ZiPS.

AL East

AL West Projections Team Eric Richard Combined Zingers ZiPS ESPN Forecast 2013 Wins Eric-Richard Difference Zingers ZiPS Difference Zingers Forecaster Difference BOS 89 90 89.5 88 90 97 -1 1.5 -0.5 TB 92 86 89 87 89 92 6 2 0 NYY 81 93 87 83 85 85 -12 4 2 BAL 80 77 78.5 84 82 85 3 -5.5 -3.5 TOR 77 78 77.5 81 77 74 -1 -3.5 0.5 Winner TB NYY BOS BOS BOS BOS

We start out with the division that we agreed on the least, the AL East. I like whatthe Yankees did and pegged them at 93 wins. The Yankees knew they wanted acenter fielder, a catcher, and a starter so they got Jacoby Ellsbury Brian McCann andMasahiro Tanaka. They’ve gotten good reports out of Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda during spring training as well. However, Eric disagrees, saying “The Yankees had agood offseason but their offensive additions barely make up for the loss of RobinsonCano. Their infield is in pretty poor shape. If Derek Jeter makes it all the way throughhis final season, his ceiling for the year isn’t much above replacement level. Not onlythat, but the Yankees will be forced to bat him either lead-off or second, lest theyface the wrath of their fans and the media. The rotation is a wild card and needs C.C.Sabathia to return to form, a quality first season from Masahiro Tanaka and MichaelPineda to demonstrate the Yankees won the trade with Seattle. Two of those threemight happen, but even so, I don’t think it will push them towards contention. Inparticular, I don’t think it will be enough to compete with the sound offense andexcellent pitching that the Tampa Bay Rays offer.”

As far as the Rays go, hey I love them, but I think the AL East is going to get even

tougher as I see the aforementioned Yankee improvement plus a deadcat bounce from

Toronto putting pressure on the rest of the divison. The Rays generally are middle of

the pack in run prevention and run scoring, particularly having a problem scoring runs

outside of their core players like Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist. I don’t know if the

development of their rookies like Wil Myers and Chris Archer is enough to

counterbalance just how much tougher the Rays will be.

The Red Sox are a bit of a conundrum, just because they did so well last year thanks

to a league-leading offense. However, I’m inclined to think they will drop some. The

latest word is Archie Bradley was demoted in favor of giving Grady Sizemore the

starting center fielder job until he pops a wheelie. No one is quite sure what Xander

Bogaerts will do, whether Will Middlebrooks will rebound to rookie form or if A.J.

Pierzynski, as reliable as he has been, will replicate Jarrod Saltalamachhia’s 2013

production. That dropoff in offense, to me, makes it more likely the Red Sox will be

closer to 90 wins than 100.

That being said, we both liked the Boston Red Sox enough where, if you averaged out

our two predictions, they would be the Rockies Zingers’ “collaborative” choice for the

division winner. For myself, there’s enough uncertainty out of the Red Sox camp where

I think they’ll regress from their 2013 win total of 97 to our 2014 projection of 89-

90ish. ZiPS and the ESPN Forecast had similar projections of 89-90 wins but definitely

think the division race is closer than Eric and I predicted.

So, though Eric and I are both undecided about the #1 team, we both felt good

enough with Boston at #2 where our averages “fell in line” with ZiPS and the ESPN

Forecaster in suggesting Boston would win the division. Compared to the field, we

were very pessimistic about the Baltimore Orioles and feel they need a breakout from

an unexpected source just to get to .500. Meanwhile each system felt the Toronto

Blue Jays would gain a few games from their poor 2013. Though we weren’t quite as

optimistic as ZiPS was to me it is indicative of how much tougher the AL East would

be.

AL Central

AL Central Projections Team Eric Richard Combined Zingers ZiPS ESPN Forecast 2013 Wins Eric-Richard Difference Zingers ZiPS Difference Zingers Forecaster Difference DET 91 92 91.5 89 91 93 -1 2.5 0.5 KC 79 88 83.5 83 83 86 -9 0.5 0.5 CLE 77 85 81 80 82 92 -8 1 -1 CHW 75 66 70.5 70 72 63 9 0.5 -1.5 MIN 71 64 67.5 68 69 66 7 -0.5 -1.5 Winner DET DET DET DET DET DET

Across the board, everyone likes the Detroit Tigers and no one thinks it is close. I dothink it will be “closer” than the field believes as I think the Tigers will miss Fielderand I think the rebuilt defense pulled their own leg, bad pun intended. I’m obviouslyvery high on the Kansas City Royals. They needed a second baseman and a leadoffhitter and got both with Omar Infante and Norichika Aoki . They also have manypotential breakout players on offense along with one of the best bullpens in theleague and league leading run prevention. By next year, the Royals could be clearfavorites in the AL Central. On the flipside, I don’t think the Cleveland Indians willmaintain their magic act though the emergence of Denny Salazar could keep themhelp.

Curiously, everyone from Eric to ZiPS is projecting a huge leap for the Chicago White

Sox and the Minnesota Twins over their 2013 win totals. Thus, I’ll happily stand in

outlier territory and think the White Sox and Twins will provide the other teams in the

division a gracious opponent to play against. If Miguel Sano had been healthy, I might

have bought in, but I just don’t know how the Twins are going to score runs. While I

like the Nolasco signing, I can’t remember the last time that Mike Pelfrey was an

answer to a question that I ever wanted to ask. Now, I do think the White Sox should

be a little better than 2013, particularly because Adam Dunn can’t possibly be any

worse (right?). Also, with Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton in the fold they do have some

developing starting pitching but I’m not sure who they will be “taking wins” away from

besides the Indians and Twins.

AL West

AL West Projections Team Eric Richard Combined Zingers ZiPS ESPN Forecast 2013 Wins Eric-Richard Difference Zingers ZiPS Difference Zingers Forecaster Difference OAK 84 92 88 89 87 96 -8 -1 1 TEX 90 89 89.5 88 87 91 1 1.5 2.5 LAA 86 82 84 81 85 78 4 3 -1 SEA 80 77 78.5 77 77 71 3 1.5 1.5 HOU 70 58 64 68 62 51 12 -4 2 Winner TEX OAK TEX OAK OAK/TEX OAK

Another muddled division producing a coinflip between the Oakland Athletics andTexas Rangers. I guess this is the season where we find out if the Texas Rangerssuccess is more due to Jon Daniels or Nolan Ryan … and perhaps, the relativeineptitude of Ron Washington . It’s hard to measure managers but the Rangers havecollapsed near the end of the season twice in a row. “On paper”, I’d prefer Texasexcept for that fact. Losing Jurickson Profat for that long definitely doesn’t helpthough I love the Prince Fielder acquisition. However they may end up missing NelsonCruz more than they thought. Oakland doesn’t really have a superstar and it can be alittle hard to tell if Josh Donaldson will remain elite or if Yoenis Cespedes will reboundfrom a pretty meh 2013. However, one advantage of not having a superstar is a betterability to ride out injuries since some other above-average no name can be thrown inthe gap. The ability to keep growing pitchers on trees. More so, they actually do agood job at foretelling the market. After the Moneyball days, they invested in defensebefore it was en vogue acquiring players like Terrence Long and Mark Kotsay . Nowthey’ve added some offense to that mix and actually, shockingly, paid money forcloser Jim Johnson . The thought process is with a “name closer”, it frees them to usetheir best relief pitchers in earlier innings when it is actually needed. Eric, meanwhile,seems to view them like I did the Tampa Bay Rays and projects them to fall back tothird place.

Pretty much everyone thinks the Los Angeles Angels will be better. Pretty much no

one thinks it will be enough. The Seattle Mariners have Cano and still aren’t projected

to break .500 by the ESPN Forecasters or by ZiPS but Eric is hopeful. They’re kind of

like a weaker version of the Royals, in a way, with some potential on offense but more

injury risk and a tougher division. Tagging wins for the Houston Astros is like throwing

a dart left handed… you can try with the best intentions and still miss the mark. I

think the Astros will be Pirates-scary three years from now and everyone thinks they

will be better this year. I don’t see them breaking 60 wins since the AL West is still

pretty tough but some predictors are more ambitious than others.

NL East

NL East Projections Team Eric Richard Combined Zingers ZiPS ESPN Forecast 2013 Wins Eric-Richard Difference Zingers ZiPS Difference Zingers Forecaster Difference WAS 90 92 91 90 91 86 -2 1 0 ATL 86 89 87.5 85 86 96 -3 2.5 1.5 NYM 74 76 75 75 75 74 -2 0 0 PHI 69 69 69 74 73 73 0 -5 -4 MIA 72 66 69 69 69 62 6 0 0 Winner WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS ATL

This is another division where every projection system is pretty much in agreement.Heck, even Eric and I agree. Everyone likes the Washington Nationals, though asSzymborski notes in an ESPN Insider article , they may be overrated slightly especiallywith their weak bench. Regarding the Atlanta Braves, some of these predictions cameout before the injuries to Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy . I’ll admit mine came outafterwards. You’d like to think a rebound from B.J. Upton has to happen andsomething better than last year’s version of Dan Uggla will help on offense, even ifit’s this year’s version of Dan Uggla . But then again, you could say the same thing formost of the Nationals offense and defense. From a runs perspective, the Nationalslost 76 runs on offense and 32 runs on defense between 2012 and 2013. The Braves,meanwhile, had a similar output on offense between 2012 and 2013 while dropping 60runs on defense. I don’t think all that Braves run prevention can be attributed to Andrelton Simmons and with the pitching injuries, I expect regression. Some call theMets a sleeper team. I will, for 2015 when Matt Harvey is back in full swing. There arejust a few too many injuries and a bit of sorting out who is a player versus who is aDud(a) to see them doing much this year.

I’m convinced the Philadelphia Phillies are following the Tampa Bay Devil Rays

playbook. Remember that one? The glory days of Greg Vaughn and Jose Canseco and

other overpaid, overold players back when the team was called “Devil Rays”? If you

don’t, don’t worry, because you didn’t miss out on much and I’m skeptical Jayson Nix

was the last piece needed to begin the new Phillies dynasty. As for the Marlins, they

should deserve to lose at this point, but hopefully whoever is in their scouting

department gets the opportunity to work with a real team. Actually, they don’t deserve

to lose but their scouting department should still get an opportunity to work with a real team.

NL Central

NL Central Projections Team Eric Richard Combined Zingers ZiPS ESPN Forecast 2013 Wins Eric-Richard Difference Zingers ZiPS Difference Zingers Forecaster Difference STL 91 92 91.5 90 92 97 -1 1.5 -0.5 PIT 85 90 87.5 87 85 94 -5 0.5 2.5 CIN 85 77 81 84 84 90 8 -3 -3 MIL 78 75 76.5 76 76 74 3 0.5 0.5 CHC 74 74 74 72 69 66 0 2 5 Winner STL STL STL STL STL STL

Another one pretty straightforward to peg from a high level. The Cardinals win thedivision as more rookies drop from the arch like Batman. On that note, I had KoltenWong as the National League Rookie of the Year and Eric had Oscar Taveras as theRookie of the Year. The Pirates should be second, the Reds third, Brewers fourth andCubs last. It’s the nitty gritty about the individual win projections that gets a littlemore foggy. The Pirates could have (and should have) done something more thisoffseason. I mean, Jameson Taillon looks great (and I hope he is because he’s on myScoresheet team), but the Pirates needed something, well, more… particularly at firstbase. Still, I think they will be closer to the Cardinals than pretty much everyprojection… and thus I toss that gauntlet and wager my first born’s old onesie. Tocounter that, everyone loves the Reds except me. I’m excited for Billy Hamilton butthe Reds lost a huge on-base piece in Shin-Soo Choo . Meanwhile, Brandon Phillips isgetting ornery and Joey Votto ’s getting the Adam Dunn treatment. There’s just a littletoo much festering there for me to even want them to surpass my expectations. Toobad no one’s wagering a toddler-sized hoodie on it.

The Milwaukee Brewers should be a lil better, just because they’ll have a lil more

Braun even if he takes a lil less juice. Everyone likes the Brewers a lil more than last

year. The Chicago Cubs are just starting to see things come together. Now, Eric and I

have both done time in Illinois so I’d like to hope some bias didn’t creep into this. The

Cubs still aren’t sure what kind of pitching that they’ve got (much less, what Starlin

Castro have got). The biggest difference is probably this… in years past, the Cubs

would have one hot rookie who had the entire hopes of the organization pinned on

him. If Mike Olt doesn’t work out, the Cubs farm system is so deep that they can go

through a Kris Bryant or Javier Baez or Christian Villanueva as an answer at third base. I don’t think

the Cubs break .500 this year, but again, wait ‘til next year!

NL West

NL West Projections Team Eric Richard Combined Zingers ZiPS ESPN Forecast 2013 Wins Eric-Richard Difference Zingers ZiPS Difference Zingers Forecaster Difference LAD 95 93 94 90 93 92 2 4 1 SF 84 82 83 86 84 76 2 -3 -1 ARI 78 79 78.5 84 80 81 -1 -5.5 -1.5 SD 79 77 78 76 78 76 2 2 0 COL 80 80 80 76 75 74 0 4 5 Winner LAD LAD LAD LAD LAD LAD

Now we’re back to our favorite division… except it’s not our division anymore becausethe Los Angeles Dodgers pwn it. Worse, it seems everyone knows it. Gone are thedays when the Dodgers argued about parking spaces instead of player salary yetremained interesting because they could develop prospects. Now, well, they have a lotand what they don’t have, they will buy. Across the board, the Dodgers are favored towin the division with no personal or prediction system projecting any team closer thanfour games. The second team is pretty unanimously the San Francisco Giants whohave a history of good pitching and have finally found some good young hitters tocompliment that. The Arizona Diamondbacks are third-ish because, well, someone hasto be there. I’m really not impressed by adding Trumbo and the D-Backs sacrificed alot of young depth in general to basically tread water. I’m not sure how ZiPS projectsa 3 game improvement and the recent injury to Patrick Corbin probably doesn’t help.Then you’ve got the San Diego Padres who get to enjoy the warm weather withplayers swinging their bats to help the fans keep cool.

And now, the Colorado Rockies. Some things to point out about how these predictions

panned out. As mentioned earlier, Eric and I did ours separately. Whether it’s a matter

of bias or expertise or appealing to our readership (please Like/Follow us!), we had

the Rockies at 80 wins and third place. The ESPN Forecasters had them dead last and

ZiPS had them tied for last. The things that could hurt the Rockies record are the loss

of Dexter Fowler and the probable regression of Michael Cuddyer as his BABIP falls

from its mile high heights. To offset that, the Rockies are replacing the hodgepodge

that served up batting practice in the 5th slot of last year’s rotation with Brett

Anderson. Nolan Arenado has the potential to explode and if Wilin Rosario can learn

how to catch (and hopefully draw a walk), I have to think the Rockies will be better in

2014 than they were in 2013. I think their chances of being an 80 win team also

increase drastically if Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray are called up at midseason.

Nowhere near contention, but a nice preamble to 2015 when Butler and Gray should

have full-time roles. Of course, the projection also has the persistent “if healthy”

disclaimer thrown on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. On the other hand, as much

as I’d like the Rockies to win it all, I find I don’t have enough straws to grasp the 90

win projection offered by our fearless owner, Dick Monfort.

Part of Eric’s belief stems from his projection that Tulowitzki will be the National

League MVP. He writes “Two things need to happen for this to take place: Tulo needs

to play at least 150 games, and the Rockies need to at least sniff contention. I think

both things will happen. Past injuries reliably predict future injuries, but I don’t think

Tulo’s recent injury woes suggest that he has any chronic issues that will keep him

out of the lineup in the future. Two years ago he played through a slight groin pull,

which eventually caused him to have surgery to remove scar tissue—lesson learned.

Last year, he broke a rib making a baseball play—nothing to be done about that.

Tulowitzki has been worth just over five wins during his last 120 game campaigns, and

I think he will demand votes with a seven to eight win season. Second, with the

possible exception of the National League East, I don’t think any NL division will be

hotly contested. I see the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Nationals comfortably winning their

divisions. However, I don’t see any teams running away with the two Wild Cards (I

picked the Braves and Pirates to win them at 86 and 85 wins, respectively). I think the

Rockies will stay in it long enough for Tulo to get votes from the lovable BBWA

curmudgeons who require it.” I’ll agree that Tulowitzki is one of the more valuable

players in the league in terms of WAR and position scarcity i.e. it’s hard to find

anyone who does what he does, much less a shortstop. However, as we see with the

Mike Trout vs Miguel Cabrera debate, WAR generally defers to who is in the playoffs.

Similar to Eric, I had the Pirates and Braves pegged as winning the Wild Card. The

difference is I had them at 90 and 89 wins respectively, meaning I think it’ll be much

tougher for the Rockies to get a Wild Card berth.

I decided to reach out to Dan Szymborski who, as I mentioned earlier, founded the

ZiPS projection system that we’ve been affectionately comparing our predictions to in

this article. Regarding the 80 win projection for the Rockies, he says “It’s not that off

base, though probably a few wins high for me. I’m skeptical of Morneau and Dickerson

and I don’t think Cuddyer matches his 2013. While I like a lot of the rotation, I’m a

little uneasy about the health of a few of the pitchers – everybody could remain

healthy and Chacin get back in May with no problems, but banking on pitcher health is

dangerous (as you probably remember first hand a few years ago when the Rockies

essentially lost everybody).” That time “a few years ago” was 2011 when the Rockies

had Jamie Moyer slated as their number two starter. I’m glad the Rockies rotation has

improved since then.

There’s also the danger that the Rockies, come July, are floating near contention and

get stuck in limboland… too close to being in the playoffs to not make a move for a

player but talent-wise, too far to expect a first half hot streak to carry over into the

second half and take them to the playoffs. Let’s face it, the Rockies don’t have a deep

farm system. If it did, virtual retreads like Franklin Morales or Justin Morneau or even

a Boone Logan could be found internally instead of externally. Thus, the danger is

being so close to contention that the Rockies deplete an already farm system even

further just to get that one player they “believe” will push them over the hump. Thus,

I hope the Rockies are much closer to 80 wins than 90 wins. Then, they can use 2014

to sort out center field, find out whether Juan Nicasio is worth keeping and try to

derive better solutions in the lineup and bullpen. Come 2015, when Gray and Butler hit

the scene, that’s when the Rockies should make their push.

Other tidbits…

Your Name Which team will win the first National League wild card? Which team will win the second National League wild card? Which team will win the American League title? Which team will win the National League title? Which team will win the World Series? Richard Bergstrom Pittsburgh Pirates Atlanta Braves Detroit Tigers Washington Nationals Washington Nationals Eric Garcia McKinley Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates Detroit Tigers Washington Nationals Detroit Tigers

Your Name Who will win the American League Rookie of the Year award? Who will win the National League Rookie of the Year award? Who will win the American League Cy Young award? Who will win the National League Cy Young award? Who will win the American League MVP award? Who will win the National League MVP award? Richard Bergstrom Nick Castellanos Kolten Wong Yu Darvish Stephen Strasburg Mike Trout Bryce Harper Eric Garcia McKinley Taijuan Walker Oscar Taveras Yu Darvish Clayton Kershaw Mike Trout Troy Tulowitzki

In the process of participating in the ESPN Forecaster’s panel, there were other little

tidbits like who actually wins the World Series and all that where we were asked our

humble opinion. The aforementioned caveats aside, Eric and I were in alignment on

the overall picture including a Tigers/Nationals World Series. It’d definitely be a neat

pitching matchup with some of the most electric arms in the game. Overall, we

disagreed most with the panel on the Colorado Rockies (+5 wins higher than the

panel), the Chicago Cubs (+5), the Philadelphia Philles (-4) and the Baltimore Orioles

(-3.5). Compared to ZiPS, they like the Diamondbacks (-5.5) and hate the Yankees (4)

more than we do.

We also differed in our rookie of the year choices. Personally, I like Nick Castellanos

because he’s handled all the position changes and Cabrera-blocking maturely and

should thrive in a regular role. Similarly, I like Wong’s chances in the NL because he

has a regular gig. As Eric points out, “My pick is riskier because Taveras doesn’t have

a place to play right now. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield is set at the moment, with

Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos, and Allen Craig. Taveras can find his way into the lineup

due to either too­poor hitting by Bourjos or if Craig or first baseman Matt Adams gets

injured (in that case, Craig would slide over to first). The other way is for Taveras’s

bat to force his way in the line­up, which is ultimately what I think will happen, and

Bourjos is the most likely to be displaced. In the end, though, can we agree that we

wish that we weren’t talking about two Cardinals rookies?”

I hope by the end of 2015 unless Butler and Gray get called up _way_ too early, we’ll

be talking about two Rockies rookies.

This was an exciting process for both of us and I hope you enjoyed this article. Feel

free to comment below and we will respond as soon as we can.