A useful rule for the Trump era is, listen to what the man says – and then believe the opposite. On that logic his tweet of self-congratulation in the early hours, praising himself for his “tremendous success” in Tuesday’s midterm elections surely suggests abject failure. And there is plenty of evidence to support that conclusion.

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He has suffered a direct rebuke from the voters: if not a knockout blow, then at least a hard slap to the face. The raw numbers of the popular vote show Americans chose Democrats over Republicans by a margin of around 8%. Were it not for the warped electoral map, with so many House districts gerrymandered to favour Republicans, Democrats would now be celebrating a landslide victory. As it was, they gained enough seats to take control of the House of Representatives – and, for all the commentary, that is the central fact of these midterm elections. It’s easy to forget, but Donald Trump did not just win the presidency in that shock night back in November 2016: his party also won control of both houses of Congress, handing Trump unchecked power. That era is now over.

No longer will he be able to drive through his agenda, whether on tax cuts or immigration policy. Even more important, from now on there won’t be Republican enablers in charge of the key House committees, sycophants prepared to ignore evidence of corruption in the Trump administration or of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. Instead, Trump will face a hostile body armed with one of Washington’s mightiest weapons: the subpoena. Democrats can demand to interrogate witnesses and see documents, surely starting with Trump’s tax returns.

Donald Trump's unchecked hold on power has come to an end | Richard Wolffe Read more

Democrats will be cheered by that turnaround and there is more for them to celebrate. They were competitive in Republican bastions like Texas and Georgia. They quietly won senate seats or governorships in midwestern states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin whose defection to the Republicans gave Trump his victory two years ago. They stirred and mobilised a base that turned out in record numbers, boosted by a new generation of candidates whose diversity reflected the nation they sought to represent. The new House will include more people of colour and, for the first time, getting on for 100 women. That figure is, of course, laughably low, but it’s still progress.

And, most striking of all, they saw Republicans lose even while the economy is booming, with unemployment at just 3.7%. According to exit poll data, 68% of Americans rate the economy as “good”, with only 31% calling it “poor”. Usually, that would spell victory for the president and his party. That Republicans could lose in such a hospitable climate – that 56% of those surveyed could say they believe the country is on the “wrong track” – points to what Vox’s Ezra Klein rightly calls a “profound political failure on Donald Trump’s part”. His lies, his bigotry, his divisiveness are all acting as a drag on Republicans, bringing them down when they should be basking in popularity.

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Yet, for all that, these results are not the unambiguous repudiation of Trumpism that many hoped for. Republicans gained seats in the senate. Yes, the map favoured them and yes, that success is partly a function of an electoral system that allowed Republicans to win just 32m votes in senate contests, compared with the Democrats’ 42m, and still come out ahead. But it gives Trump just enough cover for him to brag that where he campaigned, his party won – that he’s not lost his winning touch.

It also means that, while Democrats in the House can launch investigations, Republicans in the Senate can keep appointing judges. Trump retains the power to put a third justice on the supreme court, as well as packing lower benches with reliable conservatives who will be in place – making decisive rulings on civil rights and the like – for the next 40 years. That could prove Trump’s most lasting legacy.

What’s more, Democratic success could perversely help Trump. He can use the newly Democratic House as a punchbag and whipping boy. Come 2020, and what many predict will be a slowing economy, he will have an obvious target for blame. Not just the media, which he’s had to rely on since 2016, but the Democrats thwarting his will on Capitol Hill. If it weren’t for Nancy Pelosi and her gang, he’ll say, everything would be just great. Tuesday’s results have handed him an alibi for his own failures.

America has stepped away from the brink. But there is more work to do | Jill Abramson Read more

Glass half-empty progressives will also lament the fact that even criminal indictments and the most florid racism were no bar to election for several Republicans. Or that a compelling African-American candidate like Andrew Gillum was rejected in Florida. It seems the well-documented voter suppression efforts – keeping large numbers of black voters off electoral rolls – paid off for Republicans.

A new Democratic dawn is perennially predicted in the so-called sunbelt states – one that might compensate for losses in the old rustbelt – but Tuesday made clear that Democrats will have to wait for that a little longer. Meanwhile, the party continued its decline in heavily rural states such as North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana. Trump will be particularly pleased that Republicans maintained their hold of governors’ mansions in Iowa, Florida and Ohio – where they can have a useful influence in those battleground states when he seeks re-election in 2020.

The headline on these results remains clear: Trump lost, even when the economic sun was shining. But the outlook is not as gloomy for him as some of his opponents, including those far beyond the United States, hoped. He lives to fight – and lie – another day.

• Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist