The Global Fight

There is a Western or even worldwide contest between Trumpists and progressives. The stakes are extraordinarily high. The global liberal order, an open and rule-based system based on free trade and international institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, the UN and the EU, has helped to deliver peace and security since 1945. But Trumpists want to bring this order crashing down.

July 1 was a somber day in Britain, not just because of the Brexit vote, but also because it was the centenary of the Battle of the Somme in World War I, when British troops were ordered to march across no man’s land into a hail of German machine gun fire, and 57,000 British soldiers were killed or injured on the first day alone. The Somme is a reminder of life in Europe before the liberal order.

Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections in November wouldn’t just represent a sea change in American politics; it would also encourage Trumpists everywhere. Nativists throughout the West would believe they have captured the zeitgeist, and that this is their moment. Trump’s triumph would provide a model to emulate. And if President Trump managed to sharply reduce U.S. immigration, it could trigger similar responses in other countries in a populist domino effect.

The rise of Trumpism is a defining challenge for progressives. The left is used to debating the right on the traditional conservative triad of a strong military, social conservatism, and tax cuts. But Trumpism represents new and politically dangerous terrain. It taps into nationalism, the most powerful motivating force in modern political history. It offers a potent emotional appeal to communities that feel ignored. Whereas the center-left can seem managerial and technocratic, Trumpists speak to the heart. And they shouldn’t be underestimated. They outmaneuvered the left in both Britain and Finland. Trump claimed the Brexiters “put the United Kingdom first, and they took their country back,” adding, “we’re going to do the exact same thing on Election Day 2016 here in the United States of America.”

But the Trumpists also have weaknesses. They can win power—but they don’t know what to do with it. After the Brexit decision, the leaders of the Leave campaign seemed dazed and confused, and had no plan for what should happen next. The most famous Brexiter, the wild-haired Conservative MP Boris Johnson, had long wanted to be prime minister (a step toward his childhood aim of becoming “world king”). But when British Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation, Johnson’s campaign to replace him quickly fizzled out. Johnson was recently appointed foreign secretary and many people are extremely skeptical about his credentials—“a liar with his back to the wall” was the French foreign minister’s description of Boris.

Similarly, after the Finns Party entered the government in Helsinki, they hemorrhaged support, and polls suggest their backing is down to 10.7 percent. The Finnish populists found that governing is a lot harder than campaigning. Wrestling with complex issues like the Greek bailout and the struggling economy, and making inevitable compromises, the Finns Party couldn’t live up to their grand slogans and promises.