NBC News and MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki says the 2020 race for the Democratic presidential nomination could come down to Sen. Bernie Sanders Bernie SandersMcConnell accuses Democrats of sowing division by 'downplaying progress' on election security The Hill's Campaign Report: Arizona shifts towards Biden | Biden prepares for drive-in town hall | New Biden ad targets Latino voters Why Democrats must confront extreme left wing incitement to violence MORE (I-Vt.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg Pete ButtigiegBogeymen of the far left deserve a place in any Biden administration Overnight Defense: Woodward book causes new firestorm | Book says Trump lashed out at generals, told Woodward about secret weapons system | US withdrawing thousands of troops from Iraq A socially and environmentally just way to fight climate change MORE if support for former Vice President Joe Biden Joe BidenCast of 'Parks and Rec' reunite for virtual town hall to address Wisconsin voters Biden says Trump should step down over coronavirus response Biden tells CNN town hall that he has benefited from white privilege MORE collapses.

The perspective from the veteran political journalist comes ahead of the first primary of the campaign season on Tuesday in New Hampshire. Sanders is pulling away from the Democratic field in New Hampshire, according to recent polling, and Biden, once the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, is running in fourth place in some Granite State surveys.

The former vice president still has a commanding lead, however, in the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary, which is considered his firewall.

ADVERTISEMENT

"Of course the question is: Is the firewall still there when they get there? Because there're shades of Rudy [Giuliani in the 2008 GOP primary], 'Just get me to Florida,' and we see how that one turned out," Kornacki said of Biden in a recent phone interview with The Hill.

"I think the problem for Biden, and you're starting to see it, just with Iowa, one bad performance, and you see his numbers in New Hampshire drop," Kornacki continued. "Certainly, the possibility is really there that he puts another bad, pretty bad performance up on the board on the heels of Iowa, and you put two of those together, and I think suddenly Nevada could look different for him. And if you have three bad performances, by the time you get to South Carolina, I'm not at all confident it's going to look like what it does right now."

Kornacki also sees indicators that Buttigieg would the primary beneficiary if support for Biden collapsed.

"When I look at New Hampshire, what I'm seeing right now in the polling suggests there's a possibility here that both Sanders and Buttigieg get separation from the rest of the field," he notes. "What is looking like the beginnings of a Biden collapse in New Hampshire right now is benefitting almost exclusively Buttigieg."

"I was looking at a poll this morning where Biden's support among seniors, 65-plus, that was one of his strongest groups, collapsing and going almost all to Buttigieg. It's an interesting possibility that New Hampshire could leave you with Sanders and Buttigieg."

ADVERTISEMENT

After noting the ideological and generational differences between the 78-year-old Sanders, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, and the centrist Buttigieg, who is 38, Kornacki questioned if either can win over black voters in the South.

"Neither one of them has shown yet that they can really win over black voters, and that's where the race really goes after this," Kornacki says.

The wildcard in the Democratic race is Michael Bloomberg Michael BloombergTop Democratic super PAC launches Florida ad blitz after Bloomberg donation The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Latest with the COVID-19 relief bill negotiations The Memo: 2020 is all about winning Florida MORE, a former New York City mayor and billionaire businessman who Kornacki believes could be seen by Sanders as a "dream opponent" for the nomination.

"If it comes to Sanders and Buttigieg, I do start to talk seriously about the Bloomberg scenario and what he's trying to do," Kornacki says. "What a contrast. In some ways, I wonder if Bloomberg is Sanders's dream opponent because Sanders wants to run against the billionaire class and he can run against a billionaire.

"It's a stark contrast, ideologically. It's about as stark as you can get."

Bloomberg continues to climb in the polls, but will not be on any state ballots due to his late entry into the race until Super Tuesday in March.