As 2019 and the next general elections loom over the horizon, a wave of possibilities is rippling through the political space. BJP believes it will come to power again. Congress thinks it can successfully storm the BJP citadel.Strong regional leaders are convinced they hold the key to New Delhi in 2019. There is talk of a non-BJP, non-Congress third front. Nothing activates politicians more than the whiff of power. It is full season for every form of political machination.At this stage, BJP appears the strongest party. Its strength is three-fold: a leader, an ideology, and a cadre. But with all of this, BJP tacticians know that the magnitude of victory in 2014 may be difficult to replicate.In the states – largely confined to the Hindi heartland – where the party garnered near saturation seats, there is an undeniable erosion of support. This was evident in the recent assembly elections in Gujarat where, although BJP won, it faced a far more robust challenge from Congress.BJP is likely to face the same challenge in Rajasthan, where in 2014 it had won all 25 seats. The margins with which BJP lost Rajasthan by-elections this January are a pointer to this. Pressures of anti-incumbency could operate in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Haryana too.In the key state of UP, where BJP got an unbelievable 71 out of 80 seats in 2014, the tally could change dramatically in 2019 if the opposition – SP, BSP and Congress – comes together. In Bihar BJP will gain with its alliance with JD(U), but the strength of RJD’s Muslim-Yadav combination cannot be written off.In Bengal – where Mamata Banerjee reigns supreme – and in Odisha – where Naveen Patnaik is still dominant – BJP could gain marginally, but not in numbers that can compensate for what it could lose in its principal catchment areas. South of the Vindhyas CPI(M) is likely to retain its hold over Kerala, the sole state in which it is now in power. Forthcoming elections in Karnataka are crucial, but political pundits are divided on whether BJP will be able to oust the incumbent Congress party.In Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana the situation is evolving, and a lot will depend on which party makes the right alliances. In Maharashtra an alliance between Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Congress – with some support from BJP’s disgruntled ally Shiv Sena – could pose a challenge to the present BJP government.In sum, therefore, BJP could well find that the tsunami of 2014 has ebbed somewhat by 2019. If not merely posturing for greater negotiating strength in case BJP’s tally is significantly reduced, angry allies like Shiv Sena and BJP could be an additional liability.But, it is hardly time for opposition to celebrate. The X factor in all of this is BJP’s organizational strengths. The party is a relentless electoral machine with a drive to power that is unmatched. Nobody should underestimate the energy, planning, and instruments it can bring to play to win an election, and its stunning performance in just held elections in Tripura and Nagaland is testimony to that.The much bigger challenge that 2019 poses is for the Opposition. If it believes that it can come to power merely by riding on discontent against BJP, it is living a pipe dream. What the people of India will look for when they cast their vote is whether a credible national alternative exists or not. Merely a conglomeration of parties, without a convincing narrative of governance and promise of cohesive functioning, will not sway the voter away from BJP.Congress, which could emerge as the single largest party within the current opposition, must acquire the organizational rigour to micro-manage elections, and the maturity to build alliances with other parties on a proactive, timely and accommodating basis, unlike the ad hoc, last minute SP-Congress alliance in the last UP assembly elections. A third front is improbable, and if formed will be without a binding ideology, only a political brokerage firm in case of a hung verdict.Regional satraps may do well in their bastions, but can they come together in a national alliance? For instance, can opposition parties agree to just one basic goal, that across India, they will endeavor to put up only one candidate against BJP, so that the opposition vote is not divided? This requires painstaking and sustained effort, of which little can be seen thus far. Occasional supper meetings without the requisite follow-up will just not do.It appears at present that opposition is banking more on rhetoric and less on a national strategy. In addition, it is riddled with too many larger than life egos. Chanakya taught us that adverse positions can be reversed by tactical planning. I doubt, though, if many in opposition have read Chanakya. If BJP wins 2019 it will be largely due to the fragmentation, lack of vision and organizational weakness of the Opposition.The writer is an author and member of JD(U).