Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards ( -8 ) – O/U: 218.5

*Projected Pace Rank: 3rd (100)

This is one of the best fantasy games of the night because of the pace and decently-priced options that go along with it. The obvious plays are the two point guards, John Wall and Ricky Rubio– with the exception of the second half in Wednesday’s game against the Hawks, Wall has been on an absolute tear of late and this is a favorable matchup, to say the least. Rubio has had at least 33 FDP in six of his last eight games and will be running at a million miles per hour in this one. It’s not the worst idea in the world to have both of them.

Brad Beal and Otto Porter are also very solid options against a team that’s giving up fantasy points by the bundle. Beal dropped a major dud on Wednesday night against the Hawks in a favorable matchup, but fantasy owners should have a short memory with him; this is yet another advantageous position for him to be in. Porter has been the main speaking point in a lot of Wizards’ interviews lately; a lot of coaches and players want him to be more aggressive with the basketball and I’m willing to bet he’ll meet their demands in this game.

It’s not the greatest matchup for Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris, but since they are favored by a large margin I think you could make a case for either one of them to be in your lineup.

For the T-Wolves, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine are great options as well. Wiggins is playing some incredible ball of late, landing mostly in the 30+ FDP range. LaVine struggled at the onset of Wednesday’s game against the Kings, but he did play 44 minutes and will continue to play almost 40 per game going forward. This isn’t the greatest matchup for him, but the up-tempo should more than make up for it.

Speaking of tough matchups, that’s exactly what lies in front of Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng tonight. I’d recommend fading both guys, especially Dieng in the track meet we’ll see.

Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons ( -2 ) – O/U: 206

*Projected Pace Rank: T-5th (97.4)

The line on this game is intriguingly low, but the Hornets have taken it to the Pistons in both meetings this season, winning by totals of 15 and 24. These teams are the current #6 and #8 seeds in the Eastern Conference, so it should be a great battle and I think there’s plenty of good value to be had on both sides.

The Pistons are usually pretty good on defense, but I think we can throw out that narrative according to Vegas. Kemba Walker isn’t nearly as good on the road as he is at home, but he is a viable option in this game tonight. Skeptics will say, “Whaaaat? He’s dropped two duds in a row!” Yes, I have no explanation for those but a player like this won’t be held down long. Walker has been just under 30 FDP against the Pistons in two meetings this season.

For a bit cheaper, Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams could be decent options. Batum is only one of four players in the NBA averaging at least 15, six rebounds and five assists this season. He’s fared much better against the Pistons this year with totals of 33.4 and 41.5 FDP against them. Williams has only double-doubled 10 times this season, but the Hornets are 8-2 when he does. He’s been quite consistent against the Pistons, scoring 28-and-change FDP in both games. Jeremy Lin has also looked really good again in his last three games. His price rose a little bit, but definitely worth a look.

I’m not particularly interested in the bigs down low for the Hornets, but Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky or Al Jefferson wouldn’t be the worst GPP play.

The Pistons have to come up with something for the Hornets since they don’t match up well with them. If I’m Stan Van Gundy, I have to continuously feed my big man, Andre Drummond down low. Because of the blowouts, Drummond hasn’t even topped 24 minutes on the court in both meetings. I have a feeling tonight will be different and he could be a decent option at center.

The rest of the Pistons have great prices to take advantage of. Tobias Harris has a great matchup and I’ll be looking for him to do big things since he’s eclipsed 30 FDP twice against the Hornets this season (once with the Magic). He’ll likely draw Williams from the Hornets on the defensive end, advantage: Harris.

Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (back in the lineup and starting) all make for decent GPP plays.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks ( -9 ) – O/U: 203

*Projected Pace Rank: T-5th (97.4)

It’s been a seasonal rite of passage to make sure that we have wing players going against the Bucks. The guys that play those positions for the Hawks are necessarily the greatest options on a nightly basis, but Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway, Jr. should see an uptick in production with this matchup.

Paul Millsap and Al Horford are the preferred options from the Hawks since the Bucks really can’t rebound all that well. Millsap’s price has come down a bit and I think we can all take advantage of this gift we’ve been granted. He dropped a dud on Monday against the Wizards, and aside from that game, has been fairly productive in eight of his last 10 games. Horford has done well against the Bucks this season, notching totals of 38.8 and 31.6 FDP.

The decision of Jeff Teague or Dennis Schroder is always a tricky one, but not tonight. Teague has had totals of 27.8 and 13.9 FDP against the Bucks this season while Schroder has notched games of 20.5 and 48.6 FDP against them. The spread is high enough to feel comfortable with rostering a backup point guard, so let it fly.

The Bucks have some difficult matchups in this contest, but Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Greg Monroe are the guys I would be targeting. The Greek Freak put up a 50-burger in his first meeting with the Hawks this season, but only (only, I know) 36.9 FDP in the second one. He’s a walking triple-double nowadays and now costs just a notch under $10K. Middleton has been at both ends of 30 this season against the Hawks while Monroe put up 48.4 FDP in the last meeting.

Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets ( PK ) – O/U: 212

*Projected Pace Rank: 6th (97.3)

The Rockets see the biggest drop in pace tonight as the Raptors come into town. James Harden had a massive 68 FDP performance in the previous meeting between these two teams. I think he’s fully capable of a similar performance since he’s been right at 60 FDP in his last two games. The Rockets are sitting just outside the Western Conference playoff Mason-Dixon line and they need him to be their everything.

I’m not in love with the price tags, but Bismack Biyombo and Jonas Valanciunas have tremendous matchups tonight. The Raptors situation is a tricky one with knowing who will get more minutes, but it seems like they want Biyombo to get more minutes. However, at that price, I’m not going to be drawn in. Dwight Howard, on the other hand, is a lot more viable at $7300 on FD. Since the pace is slowed down a great deal, I think he does damage once again on the Raptors; D-12 had 39.7 FDP in the previous meeting.

DeMar DeRozan gets the benefit of Harden’s defense and he should be one of the highest scoring shooting guards by the time it’s all said and done tonight. He hit for 35.7 FDP in the previous meeting, but I expect that total to be a lot higher tonight. Kyle Lowry is also in play, but his matchup against Patrick Beverley is one that I really wouldn’t recommend paying up for.

Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat ( -8.5 ) – O/U: 210.5

*Projected Pace Rank: 7th (95.5)

In a strange scheduling oddity, the only two teams in the NBA hailing from Florida have played each other only once this season, but will reacquaint themselves in the next 17 days meeting three times. This isn’t a traditional NBA rivalry by any stretch of the imagination, so that was more or less me just trying to hype up a shitty matchup. The Dec.26 matchup featured a much different Magic team that had Channing Frye, Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris; this was also when Victor Oladipo was coming off the bench, ugh.

I love targeting point guards against the Magic, so Goran Dragic is probably a direction that I’ll be going in tonight. There was a time when using Dragic was only applicable when Dwayne Wade was out of the lineup, but that time has certainly passed. Yes, he dropped a dud in his last game against the Spurs but he did hit for at least 36 FDP in the three games prior to that.

Speaking of D-Wade, he’s been hit-or-miss lately for a guy at his price. He’s only been around the 5x value mark in four of his last seven games, exceeding it twice. This game could potentially be a blowout and money would be more wisely spent on someone else. I would think the same has to be said for Hassan Whiteside– yes, this is a great matchup but it seems like the Heat are resting him a little more lately in preparations for their upcoming playoff run. Whiteside has only exceeded 40 points once in the last six games, so I’m going to play the statistics on this one and say he doesn’t hit value.

Luol Deng (leg) is questionable for this game, so the production may have to get spread around in a few different areas. Joe Johnson, Amar’e Stoudemire, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson are the prime candidates to pick up the slack.

UPDATE: Victor Oladipo (wrist) is QUESTIONABLE for tonight’s game. Mario Hezonja would likely get the start in that case.

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs ( -12.5 ) – O/U: 192.5

*Projected Pace Rank: 8th (93.9)

The Spurs are doing it again, resting a lot of their players- OUT for tonight are: Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Boris Diaw and Patty Mills.

OK, so this means that LaMarcus Aldridge will have a ridiculous usage rate tonight while Tony Parker sees an uptick along with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and David West picking up more minutes than usual; add Kyle Anderson and Kevin Martin into that discussion as well. I’ll update this section later when things become clearer, but for now, let’s hold off on anyone other than LMA and TP9.

The Grizzlies aren’t as undesirable as they would usually be, given this information. Zach Randolph is out tonight so JaMychal Green is the natural choice to fill in. Guys like Matt Barnes and Tony Allen are in play while Lance Stephenson could be a decent GPP play.

The outlook for this game is a mess right now, so I’ll update it closer to tip.

Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings ( -7 ) – O/U: 220

*Projected Pace Rank: 1st (104.5)

What a game to lead us into the three-game West Coast hammer tonight- the three games tipping off at 10 pm or later have a total of at least 215. Like that fat kid, Flounder, from Animal House once said, “Ohhhh boy, is this great?”

I guess we’ll start with the Kings since they’re the favorites. Rajon Rondo got back on the good foot in Minnesota on Wednesday night, scoring 25 points and dropping 12 dimes. However, you have to take his increased point total with a grain of salt since Boogie was out for that game, and someone had to pick up the scoring load and it sure as hell wasn’t Rudy Gay.

DeMarcus Cousins should be back for this game, and while the Suns are ranked 11th in the NBA, but a lot of that has to do with Tyson Chandler who is OUT tonight. Boogie was out for the last game in Minnesota and should be well rested. He’s only played once against the Suns this year and notched 47.3 FDP in that contest.

I’m not particularly fond of too many other Kings in this game, but Darren Collison could be an interesting GPP move.

The Suns have great matchups across the board tonight, but they haven’t fared that well individually against the Kings this year. However, I do think Mirza Teletovic and Jon Leuer are the best $/pt plays for their team in this matchup. Chandler will be out for this one so Leuer will probably get another start while Teletovic will see increased minutes. Also, Devin Booker is a great play, but you have to pay up a little more than I want to.

Brandon Knight has been dealing with hamstring issues and I’m a little nervous about throwing him out there in that current state.

Denver Nuggets ( -3 ) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 215.5

*Projected Pace Rank: 4th (98.2)

The Nuggets are coming off a magical win over the Sixers (hey, it’s only magical because it’s the Nuggets) where Emmanuel Mudiay hit a ridiculous shot at the buzzer. You know, he did a lot more in that game than just hit that shot- he dropped 47.2 FDP in the process as well. I tried to tell my podcast-mate, Keith Hall, that Mudiay’s recent bout of duds was attributed by the Nuggets East Coast road trip, but he wasn’t having it. I was, and it was glorious. He takes on the Lakers tonight, and while we should expect 40+, I believe 35 is feasible. DJ Augustin was more of a commodity when his price under $4K; now at $4600, the upside isn’t there for me to take a chance on.

Will Barton almost had as many turnovers as he did FDP last game- 5 TOs, 6.3 FDP. Ugh. Well, he gets a chance to take aim against the Lakers, which I’d sign basically anyone up for. I think tonight is a nice rebound game for him, and at $5100 on FD, it’s not that big of a risk.

Kenneth Faried is QUESTIONABLE tonight, so if he’s out once again, Darrell Arthur will step in and produce accordingly. He’s been hit-or-miss, but against the Lakers, he’s likely more of a hit. Nikola Jokic has been seeing just under 30 minutes of late and tonight’s matchup is a damn good one for him.

There’s no word yet on anyone sitting for the Lakers, but I could imagine Kobe Bryant would sit out against the lowly Nuggets. He’s listed as QUESTIONABLE right now, but even if he does play, I’m not interested.

If Kobe is out, I’m very interested in Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams. Both guys always seem to take a major hit in production when Kobe is in the lineup, but they ultimately flourish when he’s out. Both guys would see a very favorable matchup and that’s where I’d be looking.

Julius Randle has been a man on a mission these last two games with totals of 43.3 and 36.5 FDP. You’ll probably be able to find better options now, given all the value that’s on the slate, but he was still worth mentioning. So is Brandon Bass who does well at a bargain price.

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors ( -17 ) – O/U: 225

*Projected Pace Rank: 2nd (100.8)

The Mavs are sitting Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Devin Harris tonight so there’s a lot of value to be had in this up-tempo matchup. First and foremost, JJ Barea will undoubtedly be one of the higher owned players on the slate, for good reason. Last time out against Golden State, coming off the bench, he put up 26.1 FDP in 28 minutes. We should expect to see him get well over 30 minutes tonight. Wesley Matthews and Raymond Felton will see extended time as well.

We should expect David Lee and Salah Mejri to both get the nod in the starting lineup. Both guys are tremendous sources of value, but I would recommend only going with one of them against the Warriors. While I do expect this one to get out hand quickly, the Mavs really don’t have many other viable options left on the active roster tonight so they should expect to see a boatload of minutes.

On the Warriors side of things, I wouldn’t be shocked if one of their stars sat tonight. Now, I have no sort of information or anything on this, but it just makes sense given what the Mavs have done already. Steve Kerr has said that he wants to get his guys some rest, but also not give up the #1 seed in the West. Something to keep in mind- the Spurs game will likely be decided at around the same time the Warriors tip-off. If Kerr gets word that the Spurs somehow lost, maybe he gives his guys fewer minutes? This is the JFK conspiracy theorist coming out in me, but it something to think about.

If my JFK theories are wrong and there wasn’t a second gunman on the grassy knoll, then, of course, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green would be in for massive nights, but a full complement of minutes would not be likely. I think Harrison Barnes would likely see a couple more minutes with the second unit, just to keep him fresh, but even guys like Shaun Livingston (at least 21 FPD in three straight), Marreese Speights, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo could be viable too.

The line moved three points in Golden State’s favor to -17 once the news of three Mavs resting came out.