Much to the chagrin of Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne, Doug Ford was just handed a major campaign talking point on a silver platter. For an incumbent fighting vigorously to edge back into the electoral relevancy, this is quite disheartening. Expect challenger Doug Ford to hammer home this wedge issue to maximum effect.

The matter in question is today’s announcement by Moody’s Investor Services downgrading its outlook on Ontario’s finances to “negative” from “stable” in light of the Liberal government‘s plan to run six consecutive multibillion-dollar deficits. Moody’s posits spending pressure will challenge the province’s ability to “sustain balanced fiscal results” over a number of years. This includes a projected $12.5 billion interest payment on Ontario’s ballooning $325 billion aggregate debt load, which shows no signs of abating.

That’s exactly the type of message overburdened Ontario tax payers don’t want to hear.

Seizing the opening, Doug Ford came out swinging. Shortly after the announcement, Ford said his party would cut the corporate income tax rate from the current 11.5 percent to 10.5 percent should he win in June. “We’re going to create the environment to make sure this province is the most prosperous province anywhere in Canada,” he said. “We’ll make sure we have the most competitive region in North America to do business.”

The goal is similar to the trickle-down economic model favored by the Republican down south: lower taxes thereby promoting job growth, higher wages and consumption. Whether it actually works or not depends on which think tank you believe.

For her part, premier Wynn attempted to stem the damage by claiming Moody’s outlook change wasn’t a credit downgrade. While that may be true in a technical sense (Ontario debt remains investment grade; aggregate interest rate payable doesn’t change), the optics look horrible. It’s yet another reminder to voters that despite high levels of taxation, the province’s finances are spinning in the wrong direction. This isn’t supposed to happen in a so-called ‘recovery’.

Either way, Moody’s declaration further antagonizes a hot button issue badgering many Ontario residents. Unquestionably, the Liberals’ (mis)handling of the economy is high-up on the list of grievances likely to influence voters on June 7th.

Recent data collected by polling giant Ipsos supports this assertion.

In late February, Ipsos conducted a poll on behalf of Global News. Potential voters were presented with a list of 25 campaign issues, and were asked to identify which three they believe were most important heading into election day. Of all the options conferred, only Healthcare (40%)—a perennial favorite—beat out the Economy (35%) as the most critical issue for likely voters. Furthermore, Taxes (34%) came a close third. Obviously, the two latter issues are inextricably tied to the hip.

Top 10 Issues For Ontario Voters

Issue % of Ontarians who rank among top 3 issues Healthcare 40 Economy and jobs 35 Lower taxes 34 Lower energy costs 29 Integrity in government and leaders 15 Debt repayment and balanced budget 15 Crime and public safety 13 Social assistance programs 12 Preventing climate change 11 Fighting corruption 10

These findings were conducted between February 15 and 19, 2018. For this survey, a sample of 802 Ontarians aged 18+ from Ipsos’ online panel was interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling. The poll has a margin of error of ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

From my estimation, it can be argued that the ruling Liberals under Kathleen Wynne have been weak on issues 1-6, as well as fighting corruption. To this day, many Ontarians talk about the $1 billion gas plant cancellation with the same disdain they do for Mike Harris’ decision to sell what’s known today as 407 ETR to a private firm for $3.1 billion over 99-year lease—a ludicrously paltry sum in the grand scheme of things. Such bad decision making doesn’t fade away quickly.

While the Liberals fare better on social issues—including climate change—the latter isn’t winning any elections, and social assistance may eventually recoil if deficits keep piling on. In short, there’s very few categories premier Wynne can claim accomplishment, which is perhaps why her campaigning seems more about slamming Ford than touting her own accomplishments.

Doug Ford and The Canadian Cannabis Trade

A Doug Ford election victory isn’t simply a matter of provincial politics. It could only have far-ranging ramifications on the cannabis trade in the rest of Canada.

We previously highlighted Ford’s stance on the sale of recreational marijuana in a piece titled Doug Ford Wants Government To Butt Out of the Cannabis Trade. Essentially, Ford is the quintessential free marketeer who favors letting private enterprise dictate the rules of engagement.

When asked by a CBC interviewer what his “plans for regulation and enforcement for marijuana when it becomes legal? Would you privatize pot stores?”, Ford retorted, “I have been open to a fair market and letting the markets dictate. I don’t like the government controlling anything no matter what it is…. I’m open to a free market and I’m going to consult with our caucus…. I don’t believe in the government sticking their hands in our lives all the time. I believe in letting the market dictate.”

Should Ford gain Queen’s Park and eventually implement his free market ideas, Ontario could provide a template on how capitalistic models works opposite government-controlled ones.

Bill C-45 shares power with the provinces in the areas of “licensing the distribution and retail sale in their respective jurisdictions”. Regarding the Bill’s definition of “retail sales”, there’s nothing in it to preclude free market (retail) involvement as long as it meets certain requirements such as limits on storefront density, proximity to schools, co-selling with alcohol or tobacco. This is backed up by Clause 69, which sets out a framework for provinces and territories to authorize the selling of cannabis such that a person could possess, sell or distribute cannabis.

Right now, most provinces plan on selling cannabis through provincially-licensed retailers. In Ontario, the Ontario Cannabis Store will own a monopoly on retail sales in the province. But should Doug Ford gain office for 4-plus years, all bets are off.

Whether that’s a good thing or bad is a matter of perspective. But one thing is assured: the retail cannabis industry will be most interested in the results.