This article is more than 6 months old

This article is more than 6 months old

This article is more than 6 months old

On the most consequential voting day of the Democratic presidential election cycle so far, no prize glitters quite like California.

California primary: what to know before the most populous state votes Read more

A treasure trove of more than 400 delegates, California may not be the kingmaker – or queenmaker – as some residents had hoped it would be, but the state will almost certainly play a major role in determining the nominee.

“Let me tell you something that you already know,” Bernie Sanders said to more than 15,000 supporters at a rally in downtown Los Angeles on Sunday. “The candidate who wins in California has an excellent chance to win the Democratic nomination.”

And this is new for the state.

For years, the nation’s richest and most populous state, with more than 20 million eligible voters, has been an afterthought in presidential primaries. Late in the calendar, its contest often arrived after candidates had clinched the nomination. Now California will hold contests alongside 13 other states on Super Tuesday.

Sanders appears poised to win a significant share of the delegates on offer. Propelled by majorities of the state’s Latinos, young voters and liberal voters, the Vermont senator has a commanding lead over his rivals, with nearly double the support of his nearest rival, Elizabeth Warren, according to a poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.

The primary voters here are more Latino and more liberal – it's tailor-made for a candidate like Sanders Mark Armour

“California is Sanders’ to lose,” said Mark Armour, a veteran Democratic strategist based in Los Angeles. “The primary voters here are more Latino and more liberal – it’s tailor-made for a candidate like Sanders.”

California’s 415 pledged convention delegates will be distributed only to candidates who earn at least 15% of the vote either statewide or in one of its 53 congressional districts. In the Berkeley poll, only Sanders and Warren cleared the threshold statewide.

But the race has shifted dramatically, former vice-president Joe Biden seeking to establish himself as the moderate alternative to Sanders after a commanding victory in South Carolina on Saturday.

Three candidates have dropped out: Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana Pete Buttigieg and the California billionaire Tom Steyer. Klobuchar and Buttigieg, moderates who appeared likely to win delegates in the congressional districts, immediately endorsed Biden. But Warren could also benefit from their departures, particularly among college-educated voters and women.

On Tuesday, former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg will appear on the ballot for the first time. Bloomberg has poured millions of dollars from his personal fortune into advertising in California’s expensive media markets, an investment no other campaign came close to matching.

'Zombie votes': what happens to early ballots cast for Democratic dropouts? Read more

The Berkeley poll found that Bloomberg more than doubled his support in the state by pulling moderate and older voters away from Biden. But the former vice-president, who has dropped off significantly in California, is hoping for a reversal of fortunes. In an 11th-hour push, he will spend Super Tuesday at events in the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

“There are clearly a lot of voters who are older, more moderate or even somewhat-liberal that are looking for an alternative to Sanders,” said Ruth Bernstein, an Oakland-based Democratic pollster. “But no one candidate right now seems to be getting all of that support.”

With only 72 hours between South Carolina and Super Tuesday, political strategists say there is precious little time to change the trajectory of the race.

Complicating the picture further, a significant portion of California Democrats have already voted. Millions were sent their ballots on 3 February, the same day the Iowa caucuses descended into chaos as organizers tried to tally the results of 176,000 participants.

If Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden reach 15% statewide, it would be a massive blow to Sanders Michael Trujillo

Paul Mitchell, whose campaign research firm, Political Data, tracks ballots as they are returned, said roughly 40% of voters have already cast their ballot. Based on voting data and polling, he estimated that as many as 800,000 Californians voted for one of the three candidates who left the race.

While California alone will award more delegates than the four early states combined, the share of voters who have already returned their ballots suggests many were watching the early contests.

“Anecdotally, we’re hearing a lot of California voters say, ‘I’m waiting until after Nevada or South Carolina because I’m having a really hard time making a decision,” Bernstein said. Biden is likely to benefit the most from a shrinking field, she added, but any boost he gets in the state must be large enough to overcome a potential deficit from the ballots already cast.

Perhaps the real battle is for second place. In a Suffolk University/USA TODAY of California primary voters, Bloomberg earned 16% with both Biden and Warren falling just shy of the 15% threshold.

Biden wins backing of former rivals Klobuchar and O'Rourke at Dallas rally Read more

If the race is close, it could take several days or even weeks to tally the results. Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist based in Los Angeles who worked on Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, said the state of the race on election night could look dramatically different than the final result if voters break late and rally round Warren or Biden.

“If Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden reach 15% statewide, it would be a massive blow to Sanders’ delegate lead,” he said.

California is perhaps most consequential for Warren, who was once the candidate to beat. After a series of disappointing performances in the early states, California, where Warren is getting help from a super pac fundraising committee, represents one of the best chances for Warren to bank delegates and prove she is still a force.

At an outdoor rally in Los Angeles on Monday night, the Massachusetts senator struck a note of defiance.

“We find ourselves barreling toward another primary along the same lanes as 2016: one for an insider, one for an outsider,” she said. “Democratic voters should have more choices than that. America needs more choices than that.”