As of May 21, bitcoin price volatility touched its lowest level since the start of 2015. If historical trends surrounding periods of low volatility are reliable indicators, bitcoin markets may be poised for notably larger price moves in the coming weeks.

For the purposes of the analysis, we looked at 30-day realized volatility. Since bitcoin markets crossed through the rare <25% threshold yesterday, we analyzed all similar periods since Jan 2014. Over that time, there have been three unique instances of XBT volatility falling below 25% (2013 had one instance), as shown in the chart below.

Outsized Price Action Following Low Volatility Periods

Notably, the average number of days until volatility rises beyond 25% was 6, indicating these periods rarely last long. Perhaps more importantly, after initial entrance of a low volatility period, the 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-day price changes were sizably higher compared to the overarching dataset.

Seasonal Volatility Trends

Interestingly, this low volatility period appears to be bucking the usual seasonal trend. As visible in the chart below. 2013 and 2014 saw a consistent pattern of rising volatility at the beginning of Q2, with relative stability in Q3. That curve appears to have shifted forward this year, given the increased price stability since the start of 2015.

View live data on TradeBlock Markets.

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