Fantasy Football — Week 14 Over/Under Valued Players

Leonard Fournope

Housekeeping:

When our site is up, you can see our full rankings, customize the scoring to match your league and see a ton of other stats about the players. It’s only $5 a month during the NFL regular season. Click this link to sign up. This month is the last month we’ll charge this season.

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Here is what we’re doing in this post:

I am reviewing the top and bottom five difference in points between ESPN and our AI at each position. There are two main reasons I find this valuable :

The players that have a high variance represent either upside or downside risk depending on who’s ranking you think is more accurate. Looking at multiple different rankings put together by different companies could lead to better decisions. In theory, ESPN’s builds their model differently then our model is created (this is probably true, but we don’t have insight into their methods). It’s DIY ensemble learning.

Key PPR findings this week:

QB:

Cam Newton and Mitch Trubisky — Both of these two are coming back from an injury. I wrote an article earlier in the year about players coming back from injury and the impact on their fantasy points. The link is here.

I’ll start with Newton. The first graph below shows his stats this year. That’s pretty impressive. The second graph shows recent stats about the Browns. They’ve been pretty good against the pass recently; they did play the Bengals and Texans, the result from the Texan’s game is more impressive.

My Thoughts: Cam Newton might make me look silly, and if you have him, you are starting him. In DFS, I am avoiding him for two reasons:

He is injured The Browns have been playing better

Mitch Trubisky: The most significant risk is his health. Below are his stats. I think we are too low on him. Moving on…..

Aaron Rodgers: I can’t believe I have to write about him, but here we are. The first graph shows why I think we are lower on him. ATL’s pass D hasn’t been as trash as advertised. The past four games were against the Browns, Cowboys, Saints, and Ravens. They still appear to be prone to passing TDs. The second graph contains Rodger’s stats. What sticks out most, the five games from last year, Rodgers was averaging over 300 yards passing while this year has been much more volatile.

My Thoughts: We 100% could look silly with having Rodgers so low. There is data to support a bearish view on his performance this week. In the end, you are 100% going to start him if you own him, but I might stay clear in DFS.

RB:

I am going to be direct in this section to save words. I’ll call it lightning round.

Nick Chubb: He has a tough matchup (first graph below), a >10 yards per catch the points has been supporting his recieivng points (that seems unsustainable over the long run, the second graph shows this). The Browns need to keep it close for him to outperform his projections.

David Johnson: If I told you Arizona had 182 rushing yards last game (first graph), you almost certainly would think David Johnson would have over 100 of those yards. He didn’t (second graph). It’s hard to be excited about him this week because of his inconsistent performance.

LeSean McCoy: He has been averaging just over 8 points over his last three games. The Jets are bad against the run and Buffalo has been rushing a ton (first graph below). The problem, those rushing yards are from MVP candidate Josh Allen (second graph below). The path to McCoy getting to his projections is through touchdowns which have a randomness to them.

My thoughts: I might take a filer in DFS if his price is low enough and usage is projected to be low. In weekly leagues, if you have someone who has been averaging more than 8 points a week, I’d roll with them, if you need a lottery ticket, McCoy has the potential to be that against the Jets.

WR:

Odell Beckham (HE IS OUT THIS WEEK, I’LL LEAVE THIS IN HERE BUT DON’T START HIM): Our projections don’t include the chance he might throw for another TD. Beckham is going to get a ton of targets which is great (first graph below), he hasn’t had a lot of success catching those passes. I don’t have good insight into why his total catches are so low; it could be an Eli Manning problem. Overall, the Redskins are a mess at QB which should provide ample opportunity for the Giants to put up points. We are probably too low on Beckham.

Devin Funchess: I don’t see stats that warrant projections above 10 points (first graph below). I won’t comment on his matchup (scroll up and look at the charts for Cam Newton). Funchess has seen a snap count decline recently, while DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel have stayed consistent (second graph below). Out of all WRs on the Panthers, his target share has been inconsistent over the last few weeks (third graph). I’d stay away this week.

TE:

Zach Ertz — We are the outlier this week for sure. The potential to put up 26 points is there and is achievable if you think the Eagles will put up 30 points (first graph below). What makes this an outlier, the quality of the Dallas defense (second graph). The third graph shows me Dallas can give up big points to the TE position.

My Thoughts: Use our projections as an upside for Ertz, the Eagles offense has been inconsistent this year and Dallas is a good defense, even if prone to getting lit up by TEs.

PPR: