The latest reports by the International Panel on Climate Change and the national Climate Assessment have finally begun to recognise both the immediacy and scale of the problems associated with climate change. What is perfectly transparent is that climate change experts have consistently erred on the side of caution when making predictions. It is becoming increasingly clear that the climate is warming rapidly and that we can expect average global temperature rises of around 5 degrees by the end of this century but also that we could experience the 2 degree rise by 2030, the limit it always been assumed with which we could cope.

Scientists have seriously underestimated the scale of the problem and failed to produce models which take into account all the potential positive feedback effects, the vicious circles which will exacerbate the temperature rises. For example. global vegetation, which acts as a carbon sink, will die back as temperatures rise, releasing carbon back into the atmosphere and causing further temperature rises. Warming oceans will release carbon stores resulting in further temperature rises. The polar ice caps reflect a great deal of the suns rays, but as the temperature rises, the ice melts and does not reflect so the temperature rises further. The oceans have absorbed about 50% of the carbon released through the burning of fossil fuels, resulting in an increase in the acidity of the oceans threatening the delicate balance necessary for life. We are losing coral reefs at twice the rate of tropical rain forests. Our oceans could very quickly and very easily simply die.

No longer is climate change an issue we can shut away in the back of our minds as an unfortunate legacy we are leaving our children and grandchildren. Perhaps technology will have made sufficient advances by then that they will be able to cope. Perhaps we will have all moved to Mars. We have now passed the of 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the highest levels in 800,000 years. We seem to be heading inexorably towards 450ppm when we actually need to achieve 350ppm if we are to stand any chance of halting or reversing the current trends. Above all it must happen quickly. Europe needs to double its targets for emissions cuts from 40% to 80% by 2030. The window of opportunity is very small; it takes time to put renewable energy options in place at a time when the public appetite for such projects is waning.

The world is far too much in love with consumerism to give up on our current standards of living. Emerging economies are racing to catch up with the affluent West and no amount of preaching “do as we say, not as we do” will deter them. Radical sacrifices simply will not happen and western democracies with short term political horizons will not elect governments on a ticket to dramatically reduce quality of life. It is demonstrably possible to power our economy using renewable energy as shown in the laudable Zero Carbon Britain report from the Centre for Alternative Technology in Wales. However, no amount of campaigning will convince the British population to give up their cars, dramatically change the way we farm and eat, and accept wind and solar farms on every hilltop. The Obama Administration took one look at the forecasts and accepted that there was little that could be done, what could be done was electoral suicide and that the timeframes were such that, with a little gentle rhetoric and token gestures towards sustainable energy, history would not judge them. David Cameron and the Conservative Party, faced with the same scenario decided to “ditch the green crap”.

Humankind is sleepwalking towards a cataclysmic disaster within our lifetimes. Rising temperatures and sea levels, flooding and extreme weather patterns will dramatically affect a wide band around the equator, encompassing some of the most populous nations, making it wholly uninhabitable. Climate change migration away from the tropics will become a universal problem of an unprecedented scale which current national borders will be unable to stem. Food shortages not seen since the Middle Ages will force vast populations to move creating ugly conflict with people armed with modern weapons. Given these pressures, human nature is perfectly capable of finishing the job. The invasion of areas still capable of food production by 4 billion hungry people will inevitably lead to a breakdown of all social systems. In a recent interview, the President of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim predicted that battles over food and water will break out in the next five to ten years as a direct result of global warming and climate change. Global inequality will lead to political conflict and increased violence. Poverty, migration and hunger are the drivers of turbulence and war.

The destruction of the world’s ecosystems could ultimately lead to mass extinctions, but it may be a slow, painful process. There have been at least five mass extinctions in the last 540 million years. The most recent, the Cretaceous- Tertiary, accounted for the dinosaurs, while the Permian mass extinction wiped out 96% of all species on Earth. The destruction of the oceans, the loss of significant areas of food production and water security will threaten life on Earth.

How can we survive this nightmare scenario? The post nuclear conflict bunker strategy where the great and the good are protected from the blast and survive underground for a few months until the worst of the fallout has dissipated is wholly inadequate. Storing tins of food and bottled water will not last long enough and the scenario fails to take into account that the population left at ground level will not have been extinguished in a single fire ball. Modern survivalists plan for short term scenarios and concentrate on personal safety and security. In an increasingly lawless and violent world, food and water will become the only currency. For mankind to survive such a mass extinction will be extraordinarily difficult and will require some radical thought and brave planning.

Over the next few weeks and months, this blog will examine the challenges which will need to be overcome for us to survive. How will we survive the apocalypse? How do we avoid mankind destroying itself? How can we survive such harsh climate conditions? Who will survive? Where and how will we live? How will we eat and drink? What sort of society would we like? What sort of society will result? This is not a plan to survive the next few months before we can return to normality in some post-apocalypse film set. It is a plan for humankind to survive for the next ten thousand years.