Gregg Popovich: Spurs (and Tim Duncan) not going away

Sam Amick | USA TODAY Sports

The Western Conference logjam would have been bad enough if the defending NBA champs had looked like themselves from the start.

But no, Gregg Popovich and his San Antonio Spurs just had to start slow, just had to have all those injuries that made them look so mediocre and put them in the back of the unreal playoff race in which the fourth-place Portland Trail Blazers and seventh-place Spurs entered Tuesday separated by only two games. And now, with the Spurs having won 11 of their past 15 games and Popovich declaring that they're only getting started, there's this frightening possibility for the rest of the West: This Tim Duncan-led version of the Spurs that has been dominating for most of 18 seasons now may not be nearing its end after all.

Despite the prevailing thought around the league that this season would likely be 38-year-old Duncan's last, Popovich doesn't see it that way because — stop us if you've heard this before — of how well his beloved big man is playing. The two men won't truly know until they discuss the matter this summer, like they did last offseason, but Popovich isn't planning the retirement party just yet.

"No matter how (the season) ends, I think Timmy is going to look at (retirement) again," Popovich told USA TODAY Sports on Tuesday. "And if you ask me, my guess is that he'll go for another one because he has been so consistent this season.

"It's just consistent stuff: another double-double, over and over and over again. Because of that, I think in his mind that if it continues through the rest of the year, I think he'll say, 'I'm going to go another year and see what happens.' Because what he has told me is that the minute he feels like he's a hindrance to his team or he's not on the positive end or helping him, he's going to walk right off the court. It might be during the third quarter of a game.

"He's not going to hang on to finish a contract or make the money or have the notoriety that you know he doesn't give a (expletive) about. So the way he's playing now, he's going to look in the mirror and say, 'Hey, I'm doing all right.' "

If anything, Popovich said, he could wind up walking away before Duncan. Popovich signed a five-year contract extension last summer, but admitted that the length was a product of owner Peter Holt's desires more than it was his own.

"It's a five-year contract, but the chances of staying for five years I don't think are very good," Popovich said.

No matter when Popovich walks away, his legacy is secure. Not only has he won five championships during nearly two decades of success while championing a selfless style of basketball that is widely revered, but he also is three victories away from becoming the ninth member of the NBA's 1,000-win club. (He'll have the second-best winning percentage of that group once he's there, bested only by Phil Jackson.) The truth for Duncan and Popovich both, it seems, is that the annual soul-search during the summer will determine their respective basketball fates like it always has.

In the here and now, Popovich knows this much: Duncan still playing like Duncan is an absolute game-changer.

Despite the debate about whether Duncan deserved to be selected by the coaches as a Western Conference All-Star reserve, it's indisputable that he has had yet another All-Star caliber season. Not only has the 15-time All-Star averaged 14.5 points, but he also has done so with invaluable efficiency (as the fifth-best scorer among players taking fewer than 12 shots a game). Not only is he averaging more rebounds per game (10.0) than he has since the 2009-10 season, but he also has anchored a defense that — despite significant injuries to point guard Tony Parker, small forward Kawhi Leonard and others — is the fifth-best in the league (99.9 points allowed per 100 possessions).

"This year has been a tough one," said Popovich, whose team lost eight of 11 games at one point and was 19-14 entering New Year's Eve. "We had an amazing schedule, a very tough November and December and we were very injured. So it knocked the hell out of us, to where we're now just starting.

"I told them the other day, I said, 'We're starting the season. We finished training camp and we're in our seventh or eighth game right now trying to get ready. The season is over half done, and we're just rounding into some kind of shape.' So it's been difficult."

Yet here they are, posing a threat yet again at a time when no one in the West would argue if they finally rode off into that San Antonio sunset.

"Who knows what's going to happen?" Popovich said. "There's probably six or seven teams (in the West) that could win the championship, because no one's that great. The only one that really looks different is Golden State, and I think Memphis is playing their (butt) off too. Those two teams. But other than that, anybody can get (the championship). As difficult as the circumstances have made this season for us, without (Duncan) we would be 10th or 11th in the West. There's no doubt in my mind.

"Manu (Ginobili) is not having a great year. Tony has had a really spotty year — he has been injured a lot. Kawhi Leonard has been out most of the time, with his eye in the beginning and then with his hand. He is just basically starting his season. (Reserve point guard) Patty Mills came back in January after the shoulder (injury), and he's not back in it. (Center) Tiago Splitter is not having a great year so far. (Reserve guard Marco) Belinelli has been out, so it leaves one guy: Duncan. He is the guy who has carried us."

This season, and perhaps beyond.