With 8 events left, we’re starting to close in on the endgame of the Dota Pro Circuit season and we’re already starting to see a few patterns and teams emerging. So, here are the top questions we can try to answer about the DPC ladder.

Question 1: Can Virtus Pro go below 8th position?

No. In fact it’s kinda impossible to push them below 7th place.

VP are on 7197 team points. There’s 27450 team points left in the season, and we divide that between each team to get them above VP it looks like this -

Can’t even get to filling up 8th place. Hm.

7th place ain’t too shabby, right?

This is ignoring the fact that we can’t distribute the points out evenly anyway, as well as any points that are wasted during the next 9 tournaments. The only thing that can kill VP going to TI8 is disbanding themselves or Canada declaring war on Russia and banning them from entering the country.

Question 2: What wins will guarantee TI8 for the top teams?

Right now, 5723 team points is the guaranteed number to reach TI8. Wins from Virtus Pro, teams in 10th or lower place or disqualified teams will lower the score threshold significantly.

At 5723 points each, 9th place can’t dig themselves out of the pit.

Team Liquid: Requires 1088 team points.

Liquid are almost there — a single win or placing 2nd at any of the 5 remaining Majors will push them over the line (2250pts or 1350pts). Winning two of the 3 remaining Minors or placing 3rd-4th twice at a Major (900pts) and seeing VP, OG or a 10th place team place anywhere just once will also give them the Invite.

Team Secret: Requires 1463 team points.

Similar story to Liquid as any Major win will instantly qualify them and any 2nd place at a Major puts them 113 points away (at this stage that’s 1 VP placing). Getting 3rd or 4th a few times should be enough to secure a slot anyway.

Newbee & Vici Gaming: Requires 3548 & 3563 team points.

These two have 3 options: Win the PGL/Perfect World Super Major for 3375 points at the end of the season, win 1 major for 2250 points and watch the required amount tick down, or see if Liquid, Secret or VP win any majors to cut down the required points drastically. To be kicked out of the Top 8 would require VGJ.Thunder, EG, Na’Vi & Mineski to win four majors or place second in a major twice, or only three of those teams going above 2175 points and then any team that’s not currently in the top 8 winning the Super Major.

Newbee and Vici’s fate are their own — as long as they score any amount of points they should go to TI8 thanks to the top three teams winning Majors they don’t need.

VGJ.Thunder, EG, Natus Vincere & Mineski — Requires 4058, 4388, 4524 & 4801 team points

Here’s where things get tricky. One of these 4 teams is near guaranteed to not make it to TI8. If you’re currently in here there’s a few things you’ll need to do, namely winning enough points to be at the top of this pack. Any Major win will give you a wide berth from the 7th-8th place dangerzone, including winning the Super Major. In addition, every placing of a team above you (VP, Secret, Liquid, Newbee and Vici Gaming) solidifies your current slot on the ladder, giving less points for the other teams to grab. It’s also important to note that any second place or Major win by a team with less than 300 points will push EG, Na’Vi and Mineski down by 1 slot, and any team with 600 points will push down VGJ.Thunder as well. The teams here are banking that there will be absolutely no upsets for the 5 remaining Majors by a rouge team and that two of the other three teams down here won’t get more Top 4 placings than they will.

Fnatic & the rest -

You have 5 chances to win a Major or place second to jump into the top 8. Fnatic also has a few other ways if EG, Na’Vi & Mineski fail to gain any more points, namely winning more Minors and getting 3rd — 4th in a few Majors.

Question 3: What would it take to stop Team Liquid or Team Secret from going to TI8?

It would require a ton of very unlikely circumstances, namely all teams from 4th to 10th getting 4260 points. Assuming that Liquid and Secret don’t win any more points, Virtus Pro starts to play RPGs and relax, and a few qualifiers happen in the correct way…

Dreamleague Minor

1st — Fnatic — 4 50 points

2nd — Newbee — 270 points

3rd — Anyone but Secret or Liquid — 135 points

4th — Anyone but Secret or Liquid — 45 points

No EG, VG, Na’Vi or VGJ.T at this event, so the last two slots can’t be used for them. Liquid and Secret fail to place in a 8 team tournament, amusing Reddit for a bit before they get back to complaining about Dota Plus bugs.

Dota 2 Asia Championship Major

1st — Newbee — 2250 points (4695 points final total)

2nd — Vici Gaming — 1350 points

3rd — VGJ.Thunder — 675 points

4th — Evil Geniuses — 225 points

Time to feed all the Chinese teams some good points. Already Newbee has overtaken Liquid and Secret, pushing them down to 3rd & 4th. But it’s a Major in China, the Chinese teams have a home ground advantage. There’s absolutely nothing to worry about.

StarLadder i-League Invitational Minor

1st — Vici Gaming — 450 points (need to win qualifiers)

2nd — Na’Vi — 270 points

3rd — Fnatic — 90 points

4th — Anyone — 90 points

EG won’t be going to Starladder as they decline to play in the NA qualifier and there can only be one China qualifier for the three teams in the rankings. Secret and Liquid will not be participating in the Europe Qualifier as they expect to do a good showing at Epicenter XL.

Epicenter XL Major

1st — Na’Vi — 2250 points

2nd — Mineski — 1350 points

3rd — Vici Gaming — 675 points (need to win qualifiers, 4675 points final total)

4th — Anyone but Secret or Liquid — 225 points

VG has all the points they need to bypass Liquid and Secret. After being invited they suddenly fail to win on stage, making them drop in the DPC rankings to 4th & 5th. Twitch is set ablaze as NAVI IS BACK is spammed all over the chatrooms.

All tournaments past this point assume we get good qualifiers for the teams.

GESC Thailand Minor

1st — VGJ.Thunder — 450 points

2nd — Na’Vi — 270 points

3rd — Evil Geniuses — 135 points

4th — Mineski — 45 points

Liquid and Secret decide not to go to this Minor in order to focus on the three majors ahead. One top 4 placing in any of the three majors will be enough to secure them TI8. Most people now point out that this is where it all started to unravel.

MDL Changsha Major

1st — VGJ.Thunder — 2250 points (5040 points final total)

2nd — Evil Geniuses — 1350 points

3rd — Na’Vi — 675 points (4664 points final total)

4th — Mineski — 225 points

At this stage Reddit starts to spam threads and memes, seeing Liquid and Secret drop to 6th & 7th with two events to go. Surely they’ll win ESL or the Super Major, says everyone! How can you choke a 4k points lead in the DPC? Even if they don’t win more points, there’s no other teams to challenge them.

ESL Birmingham Major

1st — Evil Geniuses — 2250 points (5295 points final total)

2nd — Mineski — 1350 points

3rd — Fnatic — 675 points

4th — Anyone but Liquid or Secret — 225 points.

Liquid and Secret are now 7th & 8th with one Major to go. If any of the teams in the top 8 win Liquid & Secret go to TI8. Even if a team with zero points wins the major they’ll stay in. Absolutely nothing could make them drop out… well, except for two teams.

PGL/Perfect World Super Major

1st — Fnatic — 3375 points (5204 points final total)

2nd — Mineski — 2025 points (5895 points final total)

3rd — Anyone but Liquid or Secret — 675 points

4th — Anyone but Liquid or Secret — 675 points

EE-sama pulls out the impossible, knocking out Secret in the quarter finals then winning it all to push them into the top 8. Liquid are knocked out by Mineski as well, sending confusion on Twitch chat as to what the final ladder looks like, Liquipedia servers crashing for an hour before the final results are confirmed…

Team Liquid and Team Secret do not get directly invited to TI8.