Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, left, and Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., speak to reporters after working with a bipartisan group of moderate senators to find a way to reopen the government on the third day the federal shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Jan. 22, 2018. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

There are several factors in this.

The White House has dug in on the nomination with President Trump making it clear that he was 100% committed to the nomination. They’ve allowed Kavanaugh to defend himself both by releasing a very combative letter to Senators Grassley and Feinstein yesterday and clearing him for a television interview last night. This had emboldened Mitch McConnell to put his own prestige on the line in ensuring their is a vote. And I can imagine that behind the scenes arms are being twisted to vote for Kavanaugh because with full-throated support from the White House, the Senate GOP either pushes this nomination through or finds itself being used as a joke in a Trump speech.

New data points:

Y'all, after talking to a key Senator tonight, I really do think we'll all need to send thank you notes and flowers to Ronan Farrow and Jane Mayer after Kavanaugh is confirmed. One non-Judiciary Committee fence sitter is now a yes vote for confirmation. — Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) September 25, 2018

This nearly has to be Jeff Flake. Bob Corker may not be much of a senator but he’s a team player and he’s not going to stick his finger in the eye of his colleagues and friends for a few seconds of attention. Jeff Flake, on the other hand, is not much of a senator but he’d do exactly that. There is no one else on the GOP side of the Judiciary Committee who is even vaguely doubtful.

Data point number two:

Senate GOP aide says final Kavanaugh vote would likely happen Tuesday but GOP leaders need to run time off procedural clock. https://t.co/sm5X9GzlRC — Alex Bolton (@alexanderbolton) September 25, 2018

The procedural time referred to here is debate on the nomination.

The Supreme Court opens its session Monday.

We aren’t there yet, but it looks like that we may have seen the worst of this. I can’t wait until the next nomination.