But the ground has given way and things aren't looking good: it's treading air as the yawning maw of electoral defeat grows ever wider below. "It's certainly not panic and it's certainly not despair. But there's a sense of brooding anticipation," the party hardhead says. "This is a new world order and Labor needs to adapt to it." But how? How does Labor to respond to the Turnbull challenge? Robbed of their greatest electoral asset – Tony the Terrible – how do they take on Malcolm the Marvellous?

First thing's first: they won't be changing leader. At least, that's what everyone says now. Despite Bill Shorten's dismal poll results last week – only 17 per cent of Australians believe he'd make the better prime minister – frontbenchers and backbenchers alike appear to have zero appetite for more leadership drama. "I'd rather lose than start with that shit again," says one marginal seat MP. There are a number of compelling reasons not to change. Many point to the new party rules that make it much harder, though not impossible, to tear down a leader; others say a switch would break faith with the rank-and-file who took part in the leadership vote in 2013. But the most compelling reason of all? There's no one to replace him.

No one really seems to believe that Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek or Chris Bowen would do any better against Turnbull. "It's not as if there's Barack Obama or Bob Hawke waiting in the wings," says the Looney Tunes MP. Shorten it is then. So what's his strategy? And does he have the right team in place to execute on it? To some extent, that depends on Turnbull. He's enjoyed a seven-week honeymoon in large part because he hasn't really done much yet. But sooner or later he has to start making decisions – and that usually means disappointing or alienating people along the way. Queensland MP Graham Perrett agrees.

"When people start chomping down on the stuff Turnbull commits to, we'll see what happens," he says. "At the moment there just seems to be a lot of relief out there that he's not Abbott." If Turnbull sticks to the Abbott agenda Shorten will ramp up his "Abbott in a better suit" attack. If he deviates, Shorten will do everything he can to exploit the resultant party room divisions – particularly on those vexed issues like climate change and gay marriage. There will be more personal attacks on Turnbull too. While there's general agreement last month's Cayman Islands attack fell flat it certainly won't be the last we hear about Turnbull's wealth. Strategists admit they went "too hard, too early" on the wealth issue and should have waited until the honeymoon ended. But they still believe there's plenty of mileage to be made in painting Turnbull as an out-of-touch rich guy, an arrogant toff who doesn't get the common man.

But that won't be nearly enough to turn the electoral tide. Policy is a big part of the puzzle. While 2015 hasn't really been the "year of ideas" Shorten promised us, Labor is now putting out policies on a regular basis. In journalistic terms most of them fall into the "worthy but dull" category – sensible but not exactly sexy. The big ticket policies will come as the election draws closer. They'll need to capture the public's attention but also set up a genuine contest of ideas because Shorten needs something to fight for; and let's be honest, he'll never win a pure personality-based campaign against the charismatic Turnbull. Shorten also needs the right team around him. He recently made some minor changes to his frontbench but behind the scenes a bigger shift has been taking place.

Most notably, he has a new chief of staff: Queensland campaign whiz Cameron Milner. While he's only been in the role a couple of months sources say he is already implementing major changes in the way Shorten's office – and the opposition more broadly – runs. He has also moved to put Labor on a campaign footing. "Cameron has shaken it up a lot. It's a much better operation now than it was a couple of months ago, much sharper," says one MP. Communications director Kimberley Gardiner and senior press secretary Ryan Liddell are also influential voices in Shorten's office. Both are well respected in the party and out. Policy director Amit Singh is strong on economic policy and strategy director Ian McNamara is a tough player well-schooled in the dark arts given his NSW Right pedigree. Outside Parliament House, Shorten also takes regular counsel from former prime minister Paul Keating, former Rudd and Gillard government minister Greg Combet and union legend Bill Kelty.

But will any of it matter? No matter how good Shorten's strategy and team the brutal truth is that as things currently stand the only person that can really defeat Turnbull is Turnbull – if he self-destructs the way he did in 2009 Labor might stand a chance. But surely even Shorten himself knows that's unlikely. And as Wile E Coyote could attest, you can only tread air for so long; ultimately, gravity always gets its way. WHO'S WHO FOR BILL SHORTEN: Chief of staff – Cameron Milner

Communications Director – Kimberley Gardiner

Senior Press Secretary – Ryan Liddell

Policy Director – Amit Singh

Strategy Director – Ian McNamara

Outside counsel: Paul Keating, Greg Combet, Bill Kelty POLL SHIFT – BEFORE AND AFTER THE TURNBULL CHANGE

Based on two most recent Fairfax-Ipsos polls

AUGUST

Two party-preferred

Coalition 46 – Labor 54 Preferred PM

Tony Abbott – 39%

Bill Shorten – 45%

OCTOBER

Two party-preferred

Coalition 53 – Labor 47 Preferred PM

Malcolm Turnbull – 67%

Bill Shorten – 21%