CLEVELAND, Ohio - A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Democratic former federal consumer watchdog Richard Cordray and Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine in a statistical tie for the governor's race.

The numbers, if accurate, show large gains and good news for Cordray and trouble for DeWine, who as recently as several weeks ago was considered the frontrunner. It could also signify a natural shift in how the electorate feels, given there hasn't been any big news or advertising spent on the governor's race since the primary.

The same poll also showed Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci in the Senate race by a double-digit margin, in accordance with other public polling on the race.

Quinnipiac is one of the more highly respected polls in politics. The poll was taken from June 7-12. It surveyed 1,082 voters via live calls to landlines and cell phones and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points.

Cordray/DeWine

The statistical tie between Cordray and DeWine showed Cordray at 42 percent and DeWine at 40 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Part of that swing might be an increasing unfavorable rating voters have of DeWine. The longtime Ohio politician had a net approval of just 8 percentage points. Cordray's net approval was more than double that at 17 percentage points.

Cordray's lead comes even with Ohio Gov. John Kasich's job approval rating at 52 percent approve to 36 percent disapprove, though more Democrats and independents approved of Kasich's job than Republicans.

The Quinnipiac poll follows the trajectory for several other recent ones. A 1984 Society poll from late May had DeWine up by 6 percentage points while a Suffolk University/Cincinnati Enquirer poll released yesterday had Cordray up by 7 percentage points.

While it's difficult to predict exactly where the support for each candidate stands, the polls do show Cordray increasing his support in the state. The numbers were telling enough that Sabato's Crystal Ball, a political race handicapping center at the University of Virginia, switched the ratings on the governor's race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up."

"We were giving DeWine the benefit of the doubt with our rating," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball. "Recent developments and recent polling suggest it's more of a true 50-50."

Kondik said some of the changes in polling could be residual effects from DeWine's ugly primary against Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. The two lobbed bombs at each other and blanketed the airwaves with negative advertising.

Brown/Renacci

Brown led Renacci with a comfortable 17 percentage point lead at 51-34. The two-term senator also had a net favorable rating of 19 percentage points, compared with a net unfavorable rating of 4 percentage points.

Half of respondents said they had never heard of Renacci, despite him campaigning statewide for nearly a year.

Brown also had a positive job approval rating, with 55 percent saying they approved and 29 percent saying they disapproved.

Other polls have shown Brown up by similarly large margins. The 1984 Society poll from May showed Brown up by 14 percentage points while the Suffolk poll had Brown up by 16 percentage points.

Kondik also changed his race ratings for the Senate race from "Leans Democratic" to "Likely Democratic."

He said Renacci seemed like he was in trouble, and not just with the polls. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell notably left Ohio out of his races he thought were flippable and Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, secured $80 million in fall advertising in nine states -- none of which were Ohio.

"I've never gotten the sense that Republicans nationally or in Ohio, at least the people I've talked to, were super bullish about beating Brown," Kondik said.

Trump

The poll also showed waning support for Republican President Donald Trump, who carried the state by 8 percentage points in the 2016 election.

But just past his first 500 days in office, the poll showed Trump's approval rating severely diminished: 54 percent of respondents said they disapproved of the president's job while 43 percent said they approved.

However, 51 percent of respondents said they did not want to see Kasich run for president in 2020.

Yet 39 percent of respondents said Trump would not be a factor in their vote on the Senate, while 28 percent said they were voting to express support for the president and 30 percent said they were voting to express opposition.

The gender gap

The polling also showed a wide gender gap in opinion and support. Women overwhelmingly supported Cordray by 13 percentage points. Men overwhelmingly supported DeWine by 11 percentage points.

Brown's support among women was more pronounced, with more women supporting him by 33 percentage points. The gap between Brown and Renacci among men was negligible at one percent.

As for Trump, he was overwhelmingly unpopular among women, possibly driving many to currently support Democrats. In the poll, 63 percent of women said they disapproved of Trump's job in office while only 33 percent said they approved. Men liked Trump's job much better, with 54 percent approving and 43 percent disapproving.

Men and women also had some stark differences in the issues they said were important to them in the Senate election. Women and men agreed on the top four issues - the economy, health care, immigration and gun policy.

But 33 percent of women said health care was the most important compared to 23 percent of men. Meanwhile, 30 percent of men said the economy was most important, compared with 21 percent of women.

Men and women were equal at 15 percent on immigration, but 17 percent of women said gun policy was most important compared with 11 percent of men.

View the poll:

JUNE 13 OHIO GOV+BP Quinnipiac University by srichardson on Scribd