CHINA is the most populous country in the world, but is also one of the fastest-ageing. So it was with some fanfare that the National Health and Family Planning Commission announced on January 22nd that the country’s birth rate shot up in 2016. Almost 18.5m babies were born last year, an annual jump of 11.5%. The National Bureau of Statistics also announced its own figures around the same time: it said the number of births had risen 8% to almost 18m, the highest number since 2000, and the biggest annual increase in three decades. These numbers are based on a sample survey of the population, not hospital records, hence the difference. Both are valid methodologies, and confirm the same trend. The spike comes on the heels of the country scrapping its long-standing one-child policy, though the number of births was already creeping up following a relaxation of the rules in 2013. The change in policy seems to have had an impact: some 45% of newborns last year were second children, compared with 30% before 2013. The commission estimates there will be 17m-20m births a year until 2020. Government officials now eagerly project that the rising birth rate could add 30m more people to the workforce by 2050.

At first glance, this sum sounds enormous: it is roughly the entire population of Peru. Nonetheless, in the Chinese context, it is still probably insufficient to cure the country’s demographic woes. When the one-child policy was introduced in 1979, a third of the population was under 15. The number of people of working age soon swelled as they entered the labour market. But it peaked in 2013, and today the country is greying. One in ten Chinese is now 65 or older. By 2050, pensioners will number around 370m and account for more than one-quarter of the population. This places a bigger financial burden on the dwindling share of workers who must support them.

Although the latest figures are flattered by comparison with the recent past, they look far less impressive in a broader historical context. China’s birth rate was roughly the same in the 1990s, and significantly higher around its 1980s peak. Unfortunately, it will take more than ending legal restrictions for the country to accelerate the recent improvement. A survey conducted in 2015 found that three-quarters of Chinese said they did not want a second child mainly because of the expense and lack of support. The commission suggests that the government introduce child-friendly measures like tax breaks and prolonged maternity leave for families with two children. Whether such initiatives persuade Chinese who have been brought up to have one child to consider another is yet to be seen.

Clarification: A previous version of this story said that the National Health and Family Planning Commission announced a figure of almost 18m births in 2016. The number cited in fact came from the National Bureau of Statistics. The Commission’s own figure, of 18.5m births, was announced at around the same time. The post was updated on January 25th.