Stephen Colbert would make a formidable third party candidate, author says. | REUTERS Colbert: Presidential kingmaker?

When it comes to critiquing modern American politics, Stephen Colbert has been less a comedian and more a performance artist. He didn’t just joke about Super PACs — he created one (“ Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow”), then raised a million bucks for it. He illustrated the absurdity of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and Federal Election Commission’s coordination rules by briefly becoming a presidential candidate, transferring his Super PAC’s control to Jon Stewart and then “not coordinating” with him.

Early in the primary process, he urged voters to attend the Ames, Iowa, straw poll and cast a vote for Rick Parry—not Perry. The Republican Party would not reveal how many “Parry” votes came in.


But Colbert’s biggest piece of political performance art may be yet to come. It could end up putting him in a position to influence the presidential election. It’s no joke.

Consider Americans Elect. Backed by hedge fund managers and we don’t know who else (they won’t reveal their donors), the group has spent millions to secure ballot access in all 50 states for a presidential candidate to be chosen in a national Internet competition. ( Also no joke.) The group’s aim appears to be to secure a centrist ticket to run as an alternative to President Barack Obama and his eventual Republican rival. It has attracted some early support — including New York Times columnist Tom Friedman. I and others have criticized the Americans Elect board for reserving to itself the power to overrule the results of the Internet plebiscite, and in response the board has indeed made it harder to overturn the popular results.

Getting a third party or independent candidate on the ballot nationally is a steep climb — since states have different qualifying rules. So Americans Elect presents a rare opportunity for such a candidate to gain immediate credibility — as well as an ability to focus on the race itself and not the battles over ballot access.

This offers an opportunity that Colbert may find too tempting to pass up.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune recently noted that Colbert surpassed (real) presidential candidate Buddy Roemer, a former Louisiana governor, as the sixth most popular “draft candidate” on the Americans Elect website — a lead Roemer has since retaken.

But it is still early in this process. More than two million people have registered on the Americans Elect website. But so far only a few thousand have expressed preferences for which candidate to draft. Many of Colbert’s fans would have ample time to register.

If Colbert pushed hard on his Comedy Central program for the Americans Elect nomination (or, if he didn’t, but if his Super PAC—retransferred to Stewart—did so), he would have a real shot at getting the most votes in the Internet plebiscite. Any registered U.S. voter who is willing to provide voter identification information (and give up the right to a secret ballot) can vote in the election, and Colbert has legions of loyal fans. Remember how they mobbed him when he made an appearance last year before the Federal Election Commission.

A Colbert candidacy is not that far-fetched. Public Policy Polling already polled a three-way race with Obama, Mitt Romney and Colbert as the Americans Elect candidate – and found Colbert would get 13 percent.

But a Colbert run could make a circus out of the Americans Elect process, and take oxygen away from other potential candidates. Jon Huntsman has recently been flirting with an Americans Elect presidential bid. Right now, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), a real GOP presidential candidate, is the highest candidate on the “draft” list. Roemer has declared interest in the Americans Elect nomination. Political analysts speculated about a possible Sen. Olympia Snowe-David Boren ticket. What would become of them if Colbert urged his followers to register and vote?

It is far from clear that the Americans Elect board would not overrule the choice of Colbert. But doing so would run the risk that any alternative candidate would lack whatever legitimacy would be created by the project. What does it say about the legitimacy of a process that could be first overtaken by a faux candidate, then overruled by an unelected board?

A faux-Colbert Americans Elect candidacy, by dooming a third party run for a different candidate, could affect the outcome of the presidential election. The reason is that third party candidates tend to help the party they are furthest away from win the election. In 2000, it was said “a vote for Nader was a vote for Bush.” Those Green-leaning Ralph Nader voters surely preferred Democrat Al Gore to Republican George W. Bush. But with that third option some didn’t vote for Gore. And Bush won.

A Paul third party candidacy would be more likely to attract voters who would otherwise vote Republican — though some of Paul’s views on marijuana decriminalization and ending U.S. foreign involvement could attract some Democrats. In contrast, a candidate running to Obama’s left, like Sen. Bernie Sanders, (I-Vt.), who is now running third in the Americans Elect draft, could help elect Romney or Rick Santorum.

Like it or not (and supporters of third party candidates hate when people say this), until this country moves to something like instant runoff voting, third party candidates can “spoil” election outcomes — leading to the election of a candidate opposed by a majority of voters. If Colbert actually ran for president? That would have to hurt Obama.

A Colbert candidacy via Americans Elect would make great television, but is playing with fire and could have real political consequences. As the NBC political director Chuck Todd said, at some point we can’t consider Colbert simply a comedian. Colbert has called himself a“play-ah.”

There may be more truthiness in this statement than people realize.

Richard L. Hasen is professor of law and political science at University of California, Irvine School of Law and author of the Election Law Blog. His book, “The Voting Wars: From Florida 2000 to the Next Election Meltdown” will be published this summer by Yale University Press.

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