

The short answer is A LOT.

As Goldy's slump has gone on, some people have even questioned whether or not the team would pick up his 14M option for 2019. However even in a worst case scenario I can't imagine the team does not pick up that option. That said the possibility of an extension seems to be dwindling day by day. Previously the questions seemed to center mostly around whether or not the D Backs could afford to extend him. Some, such as myself, were always wary of a Goldy extension because committing to a 32 year first baseman long term is just not going to work out most of the time, even for a player of Goldy's caliber.

Previous to 2018 there seemed to be little doubt that Goldy would easily get over a 100M contract, and probably was in line for something considerably more than that. But now ? You really have to wonder just how much he has cost himself with this slump.

Below are 3 scenarios, Best Case, Moderate Case, Worst Case:

BEST CASE:

Over the next 100+ games he regains his stroke, hits for good average, and power. This would be great for the DBacks and might help them stave off total team collapse . The below best case rest of season projection is actually better than the ROS projections you'll find Fangraphs. But even with that kind of resurgence, the final line is still a .250 Batting Avg and a low .800 OPS. In this scenario, he would need a monster 2019 to convince teams he wasn't declining. If he just repeated the best case 2018 final line showed here in 2019, then I think the best case is he gets a 4 yr, 80M deal for 2020-2023. This is very optimistic . Also it would be an interesting debate as to whether the team should make a Qualifying Offer.

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS YTD 48 203 172 27 34 8 2 5 13 28 64 .198 .320 .355 .675 Best Case 106 448 380 70 105 20 4 20 67 62 110 .276 .387 .508 .895 Final Line 154 651 552 97 139 28 6 25 80 90 174 .252 .366 .460 .826

MODERATE CASE:

Paul has a moderate bounce back over the rest of the season, but his final line is still a disaster for him AND the team. Repeating the moderate line in 2019 probably means he gets a FA deal of 2-3 years, 12-15M per year at most. If he repeats the FINAL line in 2019, he is looking at a 1 year deal in 2020 for whatever he can get.

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS YTD 48 203 172 27 34 8 2 5 13 28 64 .198 .320 .355 .675 Moderate 106 448 380 60 95 18 3 15 55 58 134 .250 .359 .432 .791 Final Line 154 651 552 87 129 26 5 20 68 86 198 .234 .347 .408 .755

WORST CASE:

The worst case is he is already in steep decline, finishes the season little better than he is right now. I still think they pick up the option, but after 2018 he would need to somehow show that it was a complete fluke and bounce back in a major way in 2019. Otherwise he would probably be going the Mark Reynolds route and hoping for a team beset with injuries to pull him off the scrap heap.

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS YTD 48 203 172 27 34 8 2 5 13 28 64 .198 .320 .355 .675 Worst Case 106 448 380 45 85 15 2 10 40 53 141 .224 .327 .353 .679 Final Line 154 651 552 72 119 23 4 15 53 81 205 .216 .325 .353 .678

This is all very sad. Goldy has been a model citizen, and great ambassador for the game, and by all accounts is a high character human being. But baseball is a tough business, and it's very much a "what have you done for me lately" type of world. As I've repeated twice, now for a 3rd time, the team will pick up his option. But beyond that they don't have any obligation to suffer financially and performance wise on the field if Goldy can't right his ship.