I listened to the CBS Fantasy Football Today Podcast a couple of times last week, and this was the first time that I had taken the occasion to do so in about a year. On the show, a debate opened up about Joseph Randle, who seems to have become somewhat of a polarizing figure this preseason. I don’t recall the exact nature of the debate, but it concerned Randle’s overall potential for this season.

The debate was somewhat ended (since I have only listened to the podcast once since then, the topic may have come up again and I’m not aware of it) when Heath Cummings (this isn’t the exact language but it’s approximate) argued that there haven’t been many running backs that have turned out to be successful after having less than 100 carries in each of their first two seasons.

Intuitively, the narrative makes sense. If a running back was actually talented, they would have been good enough to get at least 100 carries in one of their first two seasons: not a very high bar to cross. However, I heard that and thought, “Do we really know that?”

The basic question is, are there running backs who turned out to be successful after barely playing in each of their first two seasons?

If we can answer this question, it not only informs us about the possibilities for Joseph Randle, but it tells us about the upside for any other running back who is asked to be a contributor after seeing limited action at the start of their career.

Let’s Get to The Bottom of This

To solve our question above, I looked at all running backs since 1998 who had less than 100 carries in each of their first two seasons. My data only goes back to 1989, so if a player started their career before 1989 and played until 1998, their first season would be before the first year of our data; however, to my knowledge, I don’t know of any running backs who played in 1998 and started their careers before 1989, so we should be safe.

Once I had this list of players, I looked at the best Fantasy seasons for this group of players (i.e. the running backs who barely played their first two seasons), which you can find below. The list contains the Top 100 Fantasy seasons for players of this group.

If Heath is right, especially since our population is relatively small and only goes back to 1998, we shouldn’t recognize any of the names at the top of this list; they should be players that are irrelevant and never produced at a meaningful level.

Player Year Age Tm FantPt Ahman Green 2003 26 GNB 338 Jamal Anderson 1998 26 ATL 309.5 Michael Turner 2008 26 ATL 273 Garrison Hearst 1998 27 SFO 262.5 Ahman Green 2001 24 GNB 259.1 Ahman Green 2000 23 GNB 245.4 Robert Smith 2000 28 MIN 242.9 Peyton Hillis 2010 24 CLE 235.9 Lamar Smith 2000 30 MIA 227 Rudi Johnson 2005 26 CIN 225.8 LaMont Jordan 2005 27 OAK 224.8 Rudi Johnson 2004 25 CIN 221.8 Dorsey Levens 1999 29 GNB 215.7 Michael Turner 2010 28 ATL 215.6 Michael Turner 2011 29 ATL 213.8 Ahman Green 2002 25 GNB 213.3 Rudi Johnson 2006 27 CIN 209.3 Brandon Jacobs 2008 26 NYG 199.5 Ahmad Bradshaw 2010 24 NYG 197.9 Robert Smith 1998 26 MIN 194.8 Reuben Droughns 2004 26 DEN 191.1 Ahman Green 2004 27 GNB 189.6 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2010 25 NWE 187.3 Michael Pittman 2004 29 TAM 185.7 Moe Williams 2003 29 MIN 184.9 Garrison Hearst 2001 30 SFO 184.3 Ladell Betts 2006 27 WAS 183.9 Chester Taylor 2006 27 MIN 181.4 Earnest Graham 2007 27 TAM 181.2 Garrison Hearst 2002 31 SFO 180.9 Ahman Green 2006 29 GNB 175.2 Adrian Murrell 1998 28 ARI 175.1 Jamal Anderson 2000 28 ATL 172.6 Joique Bell 2014 28 DET 166.2 Reuben Droughns 2005 27 CLE 166.1 Rudi Johnson 2003 24 CIN 164.3 Joique Bell 2013 27 DET 163.7 Nick Goings 2004 26 CAR 162.5 Lamar Smith 2001 31 MIA 162.2 Stacey Mack 2001 26 JAX 161.2 Michael Pittman 2000 25 ARI 160.8 Ahmad Bradshaw 2011 25 NYG 159.6 Mike Tolbert 2010 25 SDG 158.1 Michael Turner 2012 30 ATL 156.8 Ahmad Bradshaw 2012 26 NYG 156 James Allen 2000 25 CHI 154.1 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2012 27 CIN 151.8 Derrick Ward 2008 28 NYG 150.9 Mike Tolbert 2011 26 SDG 150.3 Chester Taylor 2007 28 MIN 149.5 Tony Richardson 2000 29 KAN 149.5 Brandon Jacobs 2007 25 NYG 149.3 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2011 26 NWE 148.6 Jerome Harrison 2009 26 CLE 148.2 Michael Turner 2009 27 ATL 146.6 Michael Pittman 2003 28 TAM 142.8 Darren Sproles 2012 29 NOR 141.1 Justin Fargas 2007 27 OAK 140.7 Brandon Jacobs 2010 28 NYG 140.2 Gary Brown 1998 29 NYG 138.9 Rashad Jennings 2013 28 OAK 138.5 Ahmad Bradshaw 2009 23 NYG 137.5 Michael Pittman 2001 26 ARI 136 Brandon Jacobs 2009 27 NYG 135.9 Derrick Blaylock 2004 25 KAN 132.5 Amos Zereoue 2002 26 PIT 132.3 Moe Williams 2002 28 MIN 131.5 Lamar Smith 2002 32 CAR 130.4 Leroy Hoard 1999 31 MIN 130.1 Sammy Morris 2008 31 NWE 129.8 Robert Smith 1999 27 MIN 129.1 Danny Woodhead 2010 25 2TM 127.6 Brandon Jackson 2010 25 GNB 127.5 Richard Huntley 1999 27 PIT 127 Leroy Hoard 1998 30 MIN 126.7 Tim Biakabutuka 1999 25 CAR 123.7 Michael Pittman 2002 27 TAM 122.5 Garrison Hearst 2003 32 SFO 119.9 Chester Taylor 2008 29 MIN 118 Brandon Jacobs 2011 29 NYG 116.9 Tim Biakabutuka 2000 26 CAR 116.8 Ahmad Bradshaw 2014 28 IND 116.5 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2013 28 CIN 115.8 Jason Snelling 2009 26 ATL 115.2 Donnell Bennett 1999 27 KAN 113.8 Shane Vereen 2014 25 NWE 113.8 Maurice Morris 2007 28 SEA 113.1 Adrian Peterson2 2007 28 CHI 112.4 Reuben Droughns 2006 28 CLE 111.7 Najeh Davenport 2007 28 PIT 109.3 Brandon Jacobs 2006 24 NYG 109.2 Richie Anderson 2003 32 DAL 108.9 Rashad Jennings 2014 29 NYG 108.5 Amp Lee 1998 27 STL 107.2 Terrell Fletcher 1998 25 SDG 107 Darren Sproles 2014 31 PHI 105.6 Stacey Mack 2002 27 JAX 105.5 Joique Bell 2012 26 DET 103.9 Richie Anderson 2000 29 NYJ 103.6 Chester Taylor 2004 25 BAL 100.8

Wow.

Not only do we recognize a lot of the names on this list, but we can also see a lot of quality players in this group.

We now know that it is possible for a running back to turn into a good player after seeing limited carries in their first two years, but we have also learned that it’s somewhat common for it to happen. It amazes me how often players come out of nowhere to have productive careers; C.J. Anderson was an undrafted free agent and is now a first or second round pick in most Fantasy drafts this year; Cameron Wake was cut by the Giants, out of football, and in the CFL, and still turned into one of the best edge defenders in the NFL at age 27. Our ability to predict the future performance of NFL players is poor, and the more we realize this, the better we will become at our forecasts.