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Trae Young (1.1)

Oklahoma’s star point guard is my #1 player at this position and, frankly, it’s not even close. Young leads the NCAA in points and assists per game and he’s carried a poor roster to a very likely tournament berth. His play has slipped some of late, but he’s got a weight on his back like no player in recent memory and still looks the part of a potential superstar at the next level. Let’s breakdown why:

Offense

The key to Trae’s game is his ability to pull up on a dime from deep NBA range. From the NBA 3pt line and beyond, he’s attempted a mind-boggling 168 shots, hitting 37.5% of them. The combined volume and efficiency of Trae’s shooting is unprecedented at the college level, even including upper-classmen. It’s very possible that Trae is able to eventually develop an iteration of the game-breaking gravity that makes Steph Curry so unique and the Warrior’s offense significantly better the moment he steps on the court. We’ve gotten a taste of that possibility at the college level, where Trae has leveraged his gravity well. He’s able to get to the rim at will, where his excellent touch (26/51 on floaters) and consistent ability to draw fouls (0.477 FT rate) allows him to overcome his lack of size and explosiveness to remain efficient.

Trae possesses an exceptional handle that allows him to get wherever he wants on the court and create the space he needs to get his shot off. He averages 1.1 points per possession on Isolations which is in the 91st percentile in college basketball. He’s also shot 151 shots off the dribble, averaging 1.093 PPP which again puts him in the 91st percentile. Just 10.3% of Trae’s makes at the rim, 23.4% of his made 3s and literally 0% of his made 2pt jumpers have been assisted, while his usage has him limited to just 48 shots off the catch despite averaging 1.375 PPP on those possessions (93rd %). Still, for all the burden he carries as the only creative player on his team, Trae has been able to consistently generate efficient shots for himself, something that bodes extremely well for the inevitably lower usage he’ll enjoy at the next level.

That’s not to say Trae doesn’t have his flaws and will just easily translate his 32.1 PTS/40 to the NBA. His finishing at the rim is still suspect (49.4%) and his low release point raises some questions about his ability to get his shot off against better defenders, but if his floater touch suggests the potential finishing improvements we’ve seen in other guards, he should have no problem becoming an efficient 3-level scorer.

Steph Curry is Trae’s most common comparison and for good reason. Steph changed the game with his ability to open the court beyond the 3pt line and no one has mirrored his skill set to this point better than Young this season. But I think I’ve come around to the notion that Trae’s better avenue to success falls more in line with Steph’s original comparison: Steve Nash.

Nash was someone that could hit a 3 off the dribble and score efficiently with greater volume that he’s sometimes given credit for, but he’s best known for being the conductor of some of the greatest offenses the league has ever seen. Despite Trae’s scoring prowess, I still view him as a pass-first point guard. He’s likely to be a more aggressive scorer than Nash was, but I still think he’s someone that will leverage his gravity and scoring threat to create for others more than himself. Trae may be averaging 6 TOV/40 but his 10.3 AST/40 gives him an AST:TOV of 1.72 which is better than Nash’s career best of 1.67 in his senior year at Santa Clara. Both have aggressive passing styles that lead to some bad giveaways, but that style also unlocks a higher level of offensive success and I think Trae has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Nash and Curry to eventually lead one of the league’s best offenses. It’s hard to bet on someone becoming as great as those two HoFs, but I think Trae’s elite passing and shooting ability leave little room for less talented comparisons.

I’ll wrap up the offensive breakdown by quickly discussing Trae’s off-ball value. As I noted before, Trae is extremely proficient on catch and shoots. He’s also averaging 1.318 PPP (92nd %) on his off screen opportunities but he’s had just 22 of those due to the limitations of his supporting cast. When you account for the difficulty of the shots that make up an abnormally large portion of Trae’s attempts from 3 and look at the excellent efficiency he’s shown when he gets the chance to get a good look off-ball, it’s pretty apparent that Trae will flourish in a system that gives him a more reasonable usage and lets him earn easier shots. I’m not sure you want to take the ball out of his hands too often, but he’s not someone that will require high usage to be effective. Lazy narratives be damned.

Defense

I’ll keep this brief because defense is such a minor part of point guard value.

Trae has poor defensive tools all-around and that’s not going to change. I’m really not sure there’s any avenue for him to become a positive on this end of the ball. So, what’s key here is the degree to which Trae potentially hurts his team. Will he be a complete sieve like Isaiah Thomas? Will he compete hard off-ball and actually become a positive defender like Steph? My guess is somewhere in between. If you give him a big benefit of the doubt, due to his usage, and look for signs that he’s willing to try defensively, Trae has moments that give you hope. He’s not shutting anyone down but if he can make the right rotations, make quick decisions and fight through screens, he’ll avoid hurting his team to such an extent that it negates some of his offensive value. His high BBIQ, fairly quick feet and team-first mentality are enough for me to feel decent about him as only a slight negative, but I understand any concerns that he may really hurt his overall value with his performances on the less glamorous end of the court.

Projection

Given the skills that seem comfortably translatable (scoring and passing), I’m confident Trae’s floor is at least a valuable scorer off the bench. Somewhere in the vein of Lou Williams. More optimistically, I believe Trae has it in him to reach the heights of Nash and Curry. Does that make him a guaranteed 2-time MVP? Of course not. But when you look at what he’s doing and the age he’s doing it at, he has all the time in the world to develop the way those two legends did. At his ceiling, Trae is someone that runs an all-time great offense with his gravity and creation opening up efficient shots for every member of his team: an elite primary initiator.

To reach that ceiling, I’d like to see Trae avoid the likes of Memphis, Dallas and Sacramento because of the existing PG competition. Orlando seems a likely destination but their track record for developing talent is poor to say the least and you have to wonder how big of a burden they would place on him from day one. The remaining options — Cleveland, Chicago, Atlanta and potentially New York — seem more ideal for Trae. In Chicago and Atlanta, Trae will have some existing competition for the starting job but he’s far more talented than Kris Dunn or Dennis Schroder. Hoiberg and Bud are good offensive coaches that could get Trae moving off-ball and each team gives him a strong PnR threat (Markkanen and Collins). On the Cavs, Trae will either join a fan of his in LeBron James or take over the as the future of the franchise. I’m not as excited by the possibility of him being stranded in Cleveland without The King, but LeBron staying and helping Trae develop is as fun an option as it gets. In New York, Trae would play next to Frank Ntilikina — who would do a lot to help hide Trae on defense — and Kristaps Porzingis — a potentially unstoppable PnR partner. None of this is to say Trae is particularly fit-dependent, but obviously opportunity and environment are big factors in player development and Trae isn’t an exception to that.