“Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution…. Hence one must panic individually in order to avoid systemic problems.” Nassim Taleb

When SARS happened, we had a very limited view of what other parts of the world thought. After all, in 2003, the popular smartphones were candy bar phones from Nokia and the only place to digitally broadcast our mundane personal mumblings was … Friendster.

Movie of the Year, 2003

This time it is different.

The most educational thing during this current coronavirus scare was how different we in Hong Kong react to this threat versus other parts of the world. We in Hong Kong panicked. Almost everyone is wearing masks at all times (those who are not wearing it are mainly caucasian …). We are hoarding everything.

Listening to the media in other parts of the world, I was surprised by how obsessed they were with averages and data, from fatality rates to R0s to the Spanish flu. They cared deeply about “knowing the facts” and so-called rationality. The only fact we learned from SARS was when a new virus was manifesting, there’s only data and no facts. Trying to gather “facts” while the virus was blowing up was like trying to measure the top speed of a race car in the midst of acceleration.



Premature data could lead us to miss the uncertainty and significance of variances in statistical averages. For instance, the global fatality rate of SARS was 9%. Yet, for Hong Kong, it was 17%. Had we reacted solely on the global fatality rates, we probably would have ended with a lot more deaths. Variances were dynamic and dramatic, and the potential consequences were catastrophic.

In the most simplistic term:

Fatality Rate = ( [ how many ] X [ how fast ] INFECTED) Minus ( [ how many ] X [ how fast ] TREATED)

One of the reasons why Hong Kong suffered during SARS was how rapidly the virus transmitted and then overwhelmed and compromised our medical systems. In fact, 17% of HK’s infected SARS cases was medical staff. The sudden rise of suspected cases sent people panicking and many stormed the hospitals. This was a new virus, and the symptoms were very non-descriptive (fever, coughs …) and there were no effective screening tests and no known cure/vaccine. Furthermore, our understanding of its incubation period and mode of transmission was severely incomplete. As a result cases took long to diagnose, treatments were experimented on the fly, hospitalization periods were long. Queues at hospitals backed up, medical staff started to get sick, medical supplies started to run short, hospitals ran out of space … It spiralled really really fast.

That’s why we realised we knew nothing- No statistics, studies, trends, data, so-called facts, saved us from surprises after surprises:

1) In the beginning of SARS, we were told perhaps the virus could not spread person-to-person. It was believed that we should only avoid live-stock and animals, similar to what we have learned from the bird flu. “Handshakes and hugs are okay.” We were assured.

🙅🏻‍♂️

We didn’t appreciate the wrath of the term “bio-aerosol,” that viruses liked to hitch a hike on aerosols, that having hotpot in a small room was a clusterfuck of flying aerosols. We also didn’t realize how horrifying sneezes actually were.

The image that was seared into every Hong Kongers’ consciousness

2) We were told the likelihood of transmission from contaminated surfaces was low.

🙅🏻‍♂️

We didn’t know the virus could stay alive for days on surfaces (up to 9, per some studies.) So any door handles, elevator buttons, high-fives, stools at Starbucks, everything, became new villains, and that it was impossible to wash our hands enough to combat everything that we would inevitably touch. (Hence our passion for luxuriously applying sanitisers on everything.)

3) We then thought, oh well, we should just stay home, and we would be okay.

🙅🏻‍♂️

In March of 2003, in a matter of 8 days, 190 cases were reported from one single apartment block in a busy residential area. We realised we didn’t know the virus could get to us through poop, air vents, and toilet pipes. It was then discovered that our bathrooms could be filled with SARS-Ridden-aerosols, brought to us by our neighbours who were battling diarrhoea in their own toilets. We learned it didn’t matter if we had ventilation fans on. Many of us subsequently became experts on how U-shape toilet pipes functioned and maintained. Oh, we also added another new phrase to Hong Kong’s collective dictionary- “fecal– oral.”

Translation: Poop, SARS, #FML

4) We were told face masks wouldn’t protect us from getting infected, that they were only useful in preventing the spread of the virus. So if you weren’t sick, no need to wear it.

🤷🏻‍♂️

The advice itself was not wrong, but turned out we might not know when we were sick and contagious. We didn’t realise an infected person could be contagious even during incubation. We also didn’t realise how long the incubation period could be (14 days, some said more.) Great. We could all be walking around, talking, spitting a little, spreading the virus.