Donald Trump’s refusal to say he’ll accept a loss on Election Day has raised a jarring possibility: that Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell, the nation’s top two elected Republicans, will have to do it for him.

Just don’t expect the House speaker or Senate majority leader to step in before they absolutely have to.


The continued silence from Ryan and McConnell in the face of Trump’s stunning pronouncement at the final presidential debate Wednesday speaks volumes about the leaders’ immediate strategy: Avoid Trump and his erratic rhetoric at all costs, and do whatever they can to protect their candidates from having to respond to the nominee.

But if Trump actually refuses to concede a loss on Nov. 8, it will be hard, if not impossible, for Ryan and McConnell to maintain that stance.

“I think it’ll be a huge problem then. I think both the speaker and Mitch McConnell would have to come out very, very strongly in support of the result,” Rep. Reid Ribble (R-Wis.), a retiring member who is close to Ryan, said Thursday. Ribble opposes Trump.

Ryan (R-Wis.), and to a lesser extent McConnell (R-Ky.), have far better odds at holding their chambers than Trump does of winning the White House. But the nominee’s defiant remarks at Wednesday’s debate and reiterated Thursday — that he’d wait to see the election results before deciding whether he’s willing to concede — aren’t helping the GOP’s down-ballot prospects.

“If (Trump supporters) believe that the election is rigged and their vote doesn't matter, why would they make the effort to vote and encourage their friends to vote?” asked Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), an outspoken Trump critic.

Added a Republican strategist involved in congressional races: “It’s the worst possible [get-out-the-vote] message in the world.”

McConnell is not expected to speak about the matter any time soon, though he does have a public event in Louisville on Friday where he could conceivably address it. Likewise, Ryan’s office would not comment Thursday on Trump’s refusal to say he’ll accept the results of the electoral process, referring instead to a days-old statement issued by a spokeswoman last weekend saying, “The speaker is fully confident the states will carry out this election with integrity."

The thinking among Republicans is that Trump’s assertion that he will keep the nation “in suspense” about whether he’ll accept the outcome will dissipate if he loses handily, as polls currently suggest. Or that everyone in the party will pile on Trump, once again casting the bombastic mogul as an outlier in the GOP.

“Unless there is some outrageous conspiracy that undermines the integrity of the process, I am sure leading Republicans would accept the legitimacy of a President Clinton,” said one Republican lawmaker close to House leadership.

“The guy was going to embarrass himself and his party in this election long before he stopped respecting the results,” said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff and campaign manager to McConnell. “It’s one thing to refuse to concede the election before ballots are cast. It’s quite another if he actually disrupts the peaceful transfer of power. The latter would draw quick and decisive condemnation from everyone.”

When Ryan told House Republicans two weeks ago that he’d would no longer defend Trump, he drew swift condemnation from the nominee as a “weak and ineffective leader.” A Morning Consult/POLITICO poll showed that 44 percent of Trump backers want Ryan replaced, an apparent side effect of the speaker’s break from Trump.

McConnell, befitting his cautious nature, has studiously avoided any hint of a public clash with Trump since a book tour this spring in which he implored Trump to be more “boring.” The Senate GOP leader has maintained that posture this week as Trump has stepped up his claims of a conspiracy to deny him the election.

“I frankly don’t expect [McConnell and Ryan] to have to” speak out on the rigged election claims before the election, said Flake. “I don’t think they feel it’s necessary and I don’t blame them. If they had to come out and make a statement every time Donald Trump went off the rails they wouldn't have time for anything else.”

The GOP leaders know they can’t keep their majorities if Trump voters stay home en masse, yet their candidates in blue states and swing House districts need distance to have a shot with independent voters. The view from the leadership offices is to comment only on what they can control — in other words, not Trump.

Senior Republicans said McConnell’s calculation is once again aimed at letting his vulnerable members and candidates find their own way rather than react to McConnell either bashing Trump or defending him. Republicans are now painfully divided into factions of those opposing Trump’s candidacy and those supporting him through gritted teeth.

Democrats say McConnell is shirking his responsibility as a leader to speak out.

“Sen. McConnell's attempts to skulk around and hide from his responsibility to his country are shameful and unbecoming of someone who wants to be a national leader. At long last it is time for him to finally stand up and do what’s right,” said Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in an emailed statement.

Several Republican sources told POLITICO they don’t expect Trump to cause a post-election ruckus, figuring he’ll likely lose by a lot and people will move on. Still, that sounds like wishful thinking to some in the GOP; one Republican lawmaker said he was certain Trump “will create some drama in November and December.”

Some Republicans in tough Senate races who’ve shied away from challenging Trump for much of the year are speaking out against the nominee’s declaration that he’ll respect the election results — if he wins.

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who opposes Trump, said, “Donald Trump needs to accept the outcome.” Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, who’s avoided saying whether he supports Trump or not, called the GOP nominee’s comments at the debate “irresponsible,” according to The Associated Press.

And a spokesman for embattled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who still supports Trump, said that “Ron believes we need to respect the results on Election Day.”