That’s probably a bit glib, but I really do think the deficit is not much of a problem so long as investors, foreign and domestic, continue to have faith in the economy. Among the ingredients in that faith are the prospects for economic growth, the ease of doing business, the predictability of legal and regulatory frameworks, the attractiveness of the culture, society and environment, and so on. Most of the old debates between Republicans and Democrats center on just which parts of that overall package should matter most.

Gail: Well, the global warming one isn’t exactly teeny. But I see your point. Go on.

Bret: The markets do worry me. People a whole lot smarter than I am on this subject, like Elliott Management’s Paul Singer, have been saying for some time that the markets are overheated. And we’ve been living in an era of near-zero interest rates for so long that rising interest rates might be traumatic for many companies and investors.

But you were asking me about the tax cuts. And I want to tell you, that $1.50 extra in my paycheck is really putting a bounce in my step!

Gail: You can buy me a coffee! Well, not at Starbucks, but maybe the guy with the cart on the corner. Tell me your post-groundhog predictions. Will we still be shivering in March? I’m kinda confident Congress will find some way to keep the country more or less in operation — but what about the Dreamers? Is there an immigration deal the president can’t screw up?

Bret: Uh-oh. The trouble with making short-term predictions is that people might just remember what I have to say. (However, like John Maynard Keynes, I guarantee you that in 100 years we’ll all be dead.)

But, anyway, here goes: I don’t think there’s going to be a deal. I think we’re going to live from one continuing resolution to the next. Both parties see immigration as a political winner for them in the fall, and so they are not going to want to bury it in the form of a compromise that leaves a lot of people in their respective bases unhappy.

Gail: The groundhog sees Congress’s shadow and gets depressed …

Bret: Punxsutawney Phil might want to cover his ears for this one: Barring a market meltdown, Democratic chances of retaking one or both houses of Congress are slipping. Trump outplayed Chuck Schumer over the government shutdown, and he’s outplaying (or out-demagoguing) Democrats on immigration, too. For immigration restrictionists, showing charity toward the Dreamers is a relatively small price to pay for building a wall and fundamentally changing the rules of the game when it comes to who gets a shot at coming to this country. His State of the Union line that “Americans are dreamers, too” pretty much sums it up.