After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, there’s a saturating fear of projecting elections. Nearly three years into his presidency, and with one year left in his first term, there are multiple potential outcomes for the 2020 elections. But the scenarios aren’t created equal and don’t have the same chance of taking place, and they will have a profound impact on policy in the future.

Even though predicting anything to do with Trump might seem like a risk because of how typically damaging stories don’t seem to impact his standing, the president is a historically unpopular figure whose job approval rating has been static for months. More voters have disapproved than approved of his job performance since about a week after he was inaugurated, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, and his approval rating has been between 41 and 44 percent for most of the past year and a half.

Trump remains incredibly popular with the Republican base, however, and the GOP has transitioned to primarily embracing a person more than a conservative ideology. That could eventually create a messy transition of power, but for now, it gives the president a high electoral floor as Republicans rally to his cause.

Meanwhile, without the White House and a clear leader, Democrats are battling for the heart and soul of their party in the presidential and congressional primaries. Whether that battle ends with a nominee from the party’s most liberal wing or one closer to the middle — and how long bad feelings in the losing side’s camp linger into the fall — may go a long way towards determining the odds of a Trump defeat. Still, amid the infighting, Democrats have a powerful common mission: preventing Trump from winning a second term.

The 2020 elections were already difficult to project, considering the closeness of the 2016 presidential election and narrow Republican majority in the Senate, but impeachment has thrown a new wrinkle into the cycle. Impeachment is a wild card: If independent voters believe Trump’s argument that it’s an abuse of congressional power driven by petty politics, it could drive up his vote in a way that a campaign with unprecedented financial resources might not.