Colorado Governor 2018 Democrat Primary Election Survey Release

Today Magellan Strategies released the findings of a survey of 410 Democrat and unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in the 2018 Colorado Democrat primary election. The interviews were conducted from March 20th to 23rd, 2018. The interviews were completed using live interviewers, and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.84% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey results were slightly weighted to reflect the demographics of past Democrat primary elections in Colorado. Key Findings

Congressman Jared Polis currently leads the field for the Democrat nomination for Governor with 27% support followed by former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy with 23% support. Former state Senator Mike Johnston is third with 8% support, Lt. Governor Donna Lynne has 5% support, 1% support a generic “other” candidate and 36% of Democrat primary voters are undecided.

In the Democrat primary for Attorney General, State Representative Joe Salazar currently has a commanding 29-point lead over former Obama Justice Department official Phil Weiser, 34% to 5% respectively. Rounding out the field is federal prosecutor Amy Padden with 5% support, defense attorney Brad Levin with 4% support and 51% of respondents are undecided. Observations of the Colorado Governor Democrat Primary Ballot Test Since January, the conventional wisdom among political observers in Colorado was that Jared Polis was the likely front runner in the Democrat primary for Governor. The results of this survey change that story, with Cary Kennedy emerging from the pack of Polis challengers. It appears Cary Kennedy has built some momentum from her victory in the preference polls taken at the March 6th Democrat precinct caucuses, defeating Jared Polis 50% to 32.5%. Looking closer at the ballot test results by voter subgroup, we find among male voters Jared Polis leads Cary Kennedy by an 11-point margin, 31% to 20% respectively. Among female voters it is a statistical tie, with Cary Kennedy leading Jared Polis by 1 point, 25% to 24% respectively. However, female voters historically contribute about 60% to the total votes cast in a Democrat primary election in Colorado. Another observation is Jared Polis holds a 23-point lead over Cary Kennedy among unaffiliated voters, 30% to 7%. However, it is important to note that the survey interviewed only 51 unaffiliated voters and that measurement has a margin of error of +/- 13.8%.

Colorado Governor Democrat Primary Candidate Image Ratings

It is notable, but not surprising, that none of Democrat primary candidates for Governor have a negative image rating. However, the early period of the primary campaign is ending and the time to put money to work is just around the corner. A measurement of name recognition is perhaps more relevant. At this time, the most well-known Democrat candidate for Governor is Jared Polis, with 62% of respondents having an opinion of him and 73% having heard of him. Cary Kennedy is the second most well-known candidate, with 45% having an opinion of her and 56% having heard of her. The other two candidates in the race, Mike Johnston (60% never heard of) and Donna Lynne (71% never heard of) have a lot of work to do introducing themselves to voters.

Observations of the Colorado Attorney General Democrat Primary Ballot Test

State Representative Joe Salazar currently leads the three other candidates in the Democratic nomination for Attorney General by 29 points, with 51% of likely voters being undecided. For many political observers in Colorado, this ballot test finding will generate questions about how well informed Democrat primary voters are about Joe Salazar. It is reasonable to wonder if Joe Salazar’s support is based upon a misperception that he is former U.S. Senator Ken Salazar, or his brother former Congressman John Salazar.

However, regardless of any misperceptions about voters knowing who Joe Salazar is, the state legislator has a very strong image rating. Among all respondents, 44% have a favorable opinion of him and only 5% having an unfavorable opinion of him. The other three candidates for the nomination are completely unknown, with an average of 80% of respondents having never heard of any of them. The bottom line is it will be very difficult and expensive for any of the opposing candidates to clarify who Joe Salazar is and then convince them they are the better choice.

Top Issue Priorities Democrat Primary Voters Want Addressed

Conclusion

At this early stage of the campaign Cary Kennedy has succeeded in making herself the alternative to Jared Polis and potentially the front runner in the nomination for Democrat Governor. The next test of support for her campaign and the other candidates will be at the Democratic state assembly on April 14th. However, there are millions of dollars about to be spent by several campaigns. They will be introducing themselves to primary voters and making their best arguments why they should be the nominee for Governor. For Colorado political observers, it will be very interesting to see the twists and turns of this primary through Election Day on June 26th.

Survey Commissioned By

This survey was fielded and paid for by Magellan Strategies. We are not working with any candidates, individuals or independent expenditure committees with an interest in the 2018 Colorado Democratic primary for Governor. For any questions regarding the survey findings or methodology, please contact David Flaherty by calling our office at 303-861-8585 or email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Survey Sample

The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered Democrat or unaffiliated voter.