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1. Bubba Thompson, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 50/60 70 50/60 65

Background: There are a few certainties in life: death, taxes, Mark Shapiro-led organizations taking safe, low ceiling players in the draft, and – of course –Texas taking the opposite route. Since 2011, the Rangers have made 12 selections in the opening round (including supplemental picks). Of those 12, nine of them have come from the high school ranks. But Thompson, the club’s first pick – 26th overall – in 2017, has as high of a ceiling as any. Measuring 6-foot-2 and 186 pounds, the McGill-Toolen Catholic High School product turned in a solid debut with the club’s Arizona Summer League affiliate two years ago, hitting .257/.317/.434 with 12 extra-base hits in 30 games. Texas, never an organization to take the cautious route with promising youngsters, pushed Thompson straight up to the South Atlantic League last season. And it proved – 100% – to be the correct call. In an abbreviated 84-game season, the gifted youngster slugged an impressive .289/.344/.446 with 18 doubles, five triples, and eight homeruns. He also swiped 32 bags in only 39 attempts. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 25%, the sixth best total among hitters under the age of 21 in the Sally (min. 350).

Analysis: Let’s get the lone red flag out of the way: Thompson’s strikeout rate, 28.7%, is concerning. But the Rangers have had success in the past with toolsy center fielders with problematic K-rates (see: Lewis Brinson). And Thompson’s is borderline red flag, not full-blown panic levels. Now let’s take a look at the things he does well: everything. Not only did Thompson make the leap from the lowest level of stateside ball up to the Sally, but he missed the first month-plus of the season and came out raking. He finished third in the league in stolen bases – despite appearing in roughly 30 fewer games than two players that bested him (Kirvin Moesquit and Yonny Hernandez). Here are his prorated counting stats over a full 162-game season: 35 doubles, 10 triples, 15 homeruns, and 62 stolen bases. Looking at his production through a historical lens, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only one other 20-year-old hitter – former Rangers’ to prospect Jorge Alfaro – posted a 120 to 130 wRC+ with a K-rate north of 25% and a walk rate below 7% in the Sally. Alfaro, by the way, owns a 98 wRC+ in 143 big league games.

And needless to say, but Thompson’s athleticism is leaps and bounds above Alfaro. There’s All-Star caliber potential lurking here.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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2. Hans Crouse, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 70 60/65 50 50/55 65

Background: Taken in the second round, 66th overall, two years ago. Texas signed the hard-throwing right-hander for an at-slot bonus of $1.45 million. Crouse was nearly unhittable during his debut in the Arizona Summer League, throwing 20.0 innings with 30 strikeouts, seven walks and just one earned run, which came off of a homer. The electric right-hander split his 2018 season between Spokane and Hickory, throwing a combined 54.2 innings with an impressive 62 punch outs versus 19 walks to go along with a 2.47 ERA. For his young career he’s averaging 11.1 strikeouts and just 3.1 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: Lightning quick arm. Electric fastball hovering around 97 mph. The 6-foot-4, 180-pound right-hander, who swings left-handed by the way, complements the plus-plus pitch with an above-average slider that flashes plus, and a decent changeup. Only entering his age-20 season, the lanky right-hander owns one of the better sliders in the minor leagues. Crouse controls the strike zone surprisingly well for a hard-throwing teenager. There’s front-of-the-rotation caliber potential here, but he’ll need to further refine his changeup. Tremendous, tremendous find in the second round two years ago.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021

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FB CB CH Control Overall 65 55/60 55 40/45 65

Background: Part of the three-player package the club received in the Yu Darvish deal with the Dodgers two years ago. Alexy, who was acquired along with Willie Calhoun and Brendon Davis, is a former late round pick of Los Angeles in 2016, signing for nearly $600,000 as the 341st overall player taken that year. Tall and lanky with a loose arm, Alexy spent the 2018 season back in the South Atlantic League after a solid showing the previous season. The 6-foot-4, 217-pound right-hander made 22 appearances with the Hickory Crawdads last year, throwing a career best 108.0 innings with an impressive 138 punch outs and 52 walks. He finished his third professional season with a 3.58 ERA.

Analysis: Despite averaging nearly 11 whiffs per nine innings in 2017, it’s not that surprising that the hard-throwing youngster found himself back in the Sally in an effort to help him hone in on the strike zone with some more consistency. And to his credit, Alexy did just that; he trimmed his walk rate down from 5.0 BB/9 to 4.3 BB/9 last season. Only entering his age-21 season, Alexy still has a bit of projection left due to his lanky frame. His fastball sits an easy 96 mph without much effort. His 12-6 hammer of a curveball flashes plus at times when he stays on top of the pitch. And his changeup, the lesser of the three offerings, shows solid arm side arm action due to arm pronation. With respect to his production in the Sally last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of 20-year-old pitchers to fan at least 28% of the hitters they faced in the South Atlantic League (min. 75 IP): Matt Moore and A.J. Alexy.

The control/command needs to continue to progress as he moves up the ladder, but it’s been trending in the right direction. And despite some higher walk rates, Alexy isn’t just a thrower only relying on a dominating fastball; he’s not afraid to throw the curveball. As CAL pointed out, there’s some Zack Wheeler/Aaron Sanchez type ceiling here.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021

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4. Cole Winn, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 65 60 50 60/65 55 60

Background: A surprise to literally no one, the Rangers opted for another high ceiling prep player in the opening round of the draft last June. The club snagged hard-throwing prep right-hander Cole Winn with the 15th overall pick, signing him to a $3.15 million deal – roughly $600,000 below the recommended slot bonus. Winn won the 2017 Colorado High School Pitcher of the Year. And after moving to California, the lanky righty was named Gatorade High School Player of the Year last season as he posted a 0.20 ERA at Orange Lutheran High School. Winn did not appear in a minor league game after signing.

Analysis: It’s easy to see the promise in Winn’s right arm. His fastball sits comfortably in the 93- to 95-mph range with late life. His changeup, a plus-pitch, is thrown with tremendous arm action and shows solid sink and fade. The change sits in the 85- to 87-mph range and had many hitters out front on it. He’ll also mix in a 12-6 curveball, another plus-offering, and an average slider. Winn also commanded the ball reasonably well, though he has a tendency to choke his changeup a bit. There’s definite #2/#3-type potential here.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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5. Tyler Phillips, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 55 60 60 60

Background: The 6-foot-5, 200-pound right-hander teamed with fellow fireballer A.J. Alexy to give the Hickory Crawdads a fearsome, dynamic duo at the top of their rotation. Unearthed in the 16th round of the 2015 draft, Phillips, the 468th overall player chosen that year, signed for just $160,000 – laughable pittance considering his dominance against older competition in 2018. In a career best 23 starts – one of them coming in High Class A – Phillips tossed 133.0 innings, recording nearly a punch out per inning (127, to be exact), and handed out just 16 free passes , two of which were in his five-inning start with Down East. For his four-year professional career, Phillips is averaging 8.5 strikeouts and only 1.7 walks per innings.

Analysis: Well-built at 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds and somehow overlooked. Phillips shows three better than average offerings: a lively 94-mph fastball that he commands remarkably well, especially in on the hands; a hard, downward biting curveball, and a Bugs Bunny-esque changeup with impressive arm action and difference in velocity. Control/command pitchers like this tend to feast off of the lesser experienced hitters in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but there’s a #4-type ceiling here. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only four 20-year-old pitchers posted a strikeout percentage between 23% and 25% and a walk percentage between 4.0% and 6.5% in the South Atlantic League (min. 75 IP); Felix Doubront, Joseph Cruz, Luis Cruz, and Christian Binford.

Doubront, briefly, was an above-average big league starter. The other three never reached the game’s pinnacle level. One gets the feeling that Texas is due to take the training wheels off. Phillips could begin to move quickly now.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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6. Brock Burke, LHP

FB CB CU CH Control Overall 60 55 55 50/55 50/55 55+

Background: One of the most underrated pieces the club received in the complicated three-team swap that involved the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays this offseason. Burke was originally drafted by the Rays in the third round of the 2014 draft. A product of Evergreen High School in Evergreen, Colorado; Burke turned heads with a phenomenal showing in the New York-Penn League three years ago. The then-19-year-old left-hander posted a 61-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61.0 innings. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound southpaw would split the following year between Low Class A and High Class A, averaging a solid 7.9 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings. Last season, Burke – once again – split time between two different levels: he made 16 appearances with the Charlotte Stone Crabs in the Florida State League and nine absurdly strong starts with the Montgomery Biscuits in the Southern League. He finished his fifth professional season with a 3.08 ERA across a career best 137.1 innings, recording a whopping 158 strikeouts against just 44 walks.

Analysis: A very promising southpaw that hasn’t received enough national pub yet. Burke challenges hitters with a lively plus-fastball – especially for a left-hander – that sinks and tails. He shows a breaking ball that very easily could be two distinct pitches because he’ll vary the break/velocity. One’s more of a traditional curveball and the other is more cutter-like. Burke – quietly – became one of the minors’ most competent left-handers last season, showing a knack for missing bats while doing things not to hurt himself. He looks like a potential #3/#4-type arm moving forward.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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7. Owen White, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 60/65 55/60 45/50 55

Background: For the fourth time in five years the Rangers grabbed prep prospects with back-to-back picks to open the draft. After snagging big righty Cole Winn in the first round, Texas opted for another projectable right-hander in the second round with Owen White, a 6-foot-3, 170-pound hurler out of Carson High School. A commit to the University of South Carolina, White signed for an above-slot bonus worth $1.5 million. White, like Winn, did not appear in an official minor league game last season.

Analysis: Dissimilar to a lot of top arms coming out of high school, White’s bread-and-butter comes from his above-average to plus-offspeed offerings. The lanky right-hander – who owns an above-average fastball which tops 96 but will likely settle in the 92-94 range – will drop a hellacious 12-6, knee bender of a curveball on hitters. His above-average change up with sits in the mid-80s, which has some room to grow, is thrown with exceptional arm speed and generates fade. White tends to pull pitches to the inside to left-handers/outside to right-handers at times. Like Winn, there’s mid-rotation caliber potential here, though the command may hinder him early in his career.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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8. Leody Taveras, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 40/50 60 60 50

Background: Taveras, the cousin of former big leaguer Willy Taveras, made waves on the international market when the Rangers signed the supremely talented teenager to a hefty $2.1 million dollar deal in 2015. The switch-hitting center fielder would make his much anticipated debut the following season as he split time between the Arizona Summer League and the Northwest League, hitting an aggregate .271/.366/.690 with 14 doubles, six triples, and one homerun. Then then-18-year-old center fielder spent the 2017 season as one of the South Atlantic League’s youngest prospects – and it showed. Taveras cobbled together a disappointing .249/.312/.360 triple-slash line, belting out 20 doubles, seven triples, and eight homeruns in 134 games. He also swiped 20 bags in only 26 attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 4% below the league average. Last season the toolsy outfielder got the call up to High Class A. And, for the most part, Taveras’ production maintained status quo. In 132 games with the Down East Wood Ducks, he batted .246/.312/.332 with 16 doubles, a career-high tying seven triples, and five homeruns. Taveras also swiped 19 bases, though it took 30 attempts. His overall production was 15% below the league average. For his three-year career, Taveras is sporting a .253/.315/.351 triple-slash line.

Analysis: It’s always difficult to get a good read on a teenage prospect playing against significantly older competition – especially if the prospect’s production is quite underwhelming. Consider the following tidbits:

Since 2006, only 43 players have appeared in the Carolina League during their age-19 season.

Of those 43 players, only 13 of them have made at least 300 plate appearances. Perhaps even more impressive: only three of those players – Cheslor Cuthbert, Rafael Devers, and Leody Taveras – had at least 500 plate appearances.

Going back to the 13 players with at least 300 plate appearances, seven of them performed above the league average mark; six of them – obviously – were below the league average mark.

Not here’s where it gets grim for Taveras:

Sans Taveras, here are the rest of the prospects to post a sub-100 wRC+ total in the Carolina League during their age-19 season: Cheslor Cuthbert, Courtney Hawkins, Jomar Reyes, and Aramis Ademan. Cuthbert’s been a well-below-average big league hitter in 930 PA. Hawkins, the 13th overall player chosen in the 2012 draft, was released by the White Sox this season. Reyes didn’t even crack the Orioles Top 20 prospects in 2019. And Ademan is a current prospect in the Cubs organization.

Taking the level of concern up a notch – Taveras failed to show any tangible progress as the season wore on. The Dominican-born outfielder’s top asset is his speed, which is a legitimate game-changer, and defense. Otherwise, the rest of the physical tools range from average (hit tool, eye at the plate) to below-average (power). The fact that he contributes on the defensive side of the ball pads his sagging status a bit, but there’s not a whole lot that differentiates Taveras and former Phillies top prospect – and current Ranger – Carlos Tocci.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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9. Chris Seise, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A 55

Background: The 29th overall pick out of West Orange High School two years ago, Seise missed the 2018 season after undergoing surgery to “clean out” his right rotator cuff. The promising shortstop hit .284/.330/.400 in his debut.

Analysis: According to various reports, Seise was ticketed to begin last season back in short-season ball after a 24-game cameo there during his debut. Here’s what I wrote about the 6-foot-2, 175-pound shortstop in last year’s book when I ranked him as the fourth best prospect in the organization:

“One helluva way to start a professional career. Seise looked unstoppable during his foray into the Arizona Summer League. In fact, consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been just 32 instances in which an 18-year-old posted a 140 or better wRC+ mark in the Arizona Summer League (min. 125 PA).

Shrinking that data range down a bit to give players enough time to make it to the big leagues, between 2006 and 2013 there were just 18 players to accomplish the aforementioned feat. Of those 18, eight of those players – Cedric Hunter, Christian Arroyo, Daniel Roberts, Franchy Cordero, Jaff Decker, Joey Gallo, Renato Nunez, and Rymer Liriano – made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach for the youngster.”

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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10. Cole Ragans, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A 55

Background: The club’s first round pick in 2016, Ragans, who was taken with the 30th overall selection, turned in a promising campaign in the Northwest League two years ago, averaging a whopping 13.7 strikeouts and an equally large 5.5 walks per nine innings. Unfortunately for the promising southpaw – and for the Texas organization – Ragans succumbed to Tommy John surgery near the end of March and missed the entirety of 2018 season. According to a variety of reports, the 6-foot-4, 190-pound lefty resumed throwing in August. Assuming everything progresses normally, he should return in the early part of 2019.

Analysis: Since there’s nothing new to report on, here’s what I wrote in last year’s Handbook:

“With respect to his work last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of pitchers to average at least 13 punch outs per nine innings in the Northwest League (min. 50 IP): Cole Ragans

Expanding the criteria a bit, since 2006 here’s a list of pitchers to average at least 12 K/9 in the league (min. 50 IP): Ragans and Pedro Araujo. Araujo, 21, was two years older than Ragans when he accomplished the feat.

Taking another step back, here’s a list of 19-year-old arms that have averaged at least 10 K/9 in the Northwest League (min. 50 IP): Ragans, Cody Reed, Justin Nicolino, and Mat Latos.

Finally, since 2006, only six pitchers have fanned more than 30% of the Northwest League hitters they’ve faced (min. 50 IP): Ragans, Araujo, Latos, Nicolino, Jared Cranston, and Javier Avendano.

Obviously, Ragans’ ability to miss bats is a premium. But his control – or lack thereof – will be the only non-injury limiting factor. A silver lining: after walking 16 across his first 17.0 innings, Ragans coughed up just 19 base-on-balls over his final 40.1 IP. He’s a potential front-of-the-rotation caliber arm – albeit one that’s several years away.”

As with nearly every case of Tommy John surgery Ragans’ control will likely regress – which isn’t good news for the young left-hander. He’s still only entering his age-20 season, so there’s plenty of time on his side. He’s high risk, high reward potential – as with nearly every notable Rangers prospect.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.