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All told, Manitoba is projected to receive $3.965 billion in major transfer payments from Ottawa this year – which includes the Canada Social Transfer – up from $3.675 last year. That will add an extra $290 million to provincial coffers, a 7.9% increase over last year. It’s a big chunk of change.

When you consider Manitoba receives the highest per capita transfers of any province west of New Brunswick (yes we get more than Quebec), Manitoba has little to complain about when it comes to getting its share of the fiscal pie.

The question now is, what will the Pallister government do with this mini windfall? Some of it will get eaten up in normal cost increases. But that should only be a very small portion. If overall spending goes up 3% this year, for example, then government should only need about $6.5 million of the $217 million increase in equalization to cover rising costs. Unless Manitoba’s economy ends up being a lot more sluggish than expected, which would cause a drop in own-source revenues, the vast majority of the extra equalization money should go towards reducing the deficit.

In other words, if Friesen introduces a budget next month with a core government deficit any larger than $400 million, it would be a major disappointment. The 2016-17 core government deficit was $697 million. If government can’t shave $100 million off that – out of a $14-billion budget – plus another $200 million from the equalization increase, someone’s not doing their job.

And that’s not including any additional revenues from a proposed carbon tax – which the Tories should immediately cancel – or a new expected marijuana tax.

The Pallister government inherited an $865-million deficit from the former NDP administration. With this unexpected influx of cash, there’s no reason that couldn’t be more than cut in half to $400 million in the 2018-19 budget.