So this is how it feels when the S&P 500 SPX, -1.11% breaks below its 200 day-moving average. Since I have trouble remembering if I washed my hair in the shower before I’m done with that same shower, it’s easy to forget what it was like when stocks were last at these levels about two years ago.

But suffice to say, more bad than good things happen in this zone. Dating back to 1933, the S&P has traded above the 200-day moving average 68% of the time. During those periods, it has risen by an annual rate of 11.3%, according to Eddy Elfenbein of the Crossing Wall Street blog. The 32% of the time spent below that number has resulted in a yearly loss of 1.1%.

“This is a good example of a dumb rule that works for complex reasons,” he wrote. “The complexity part is that the stock market does show momentum. Changes in the market are not normally distributed. Good times tend to lead to good times. Bad times lead to more bad times. The hard part, of course, is spotting when the trends change.”

If you want to build a case for a bull-trend shift, it’s not hard.

The S&P 500 just endured its worst three-day stretch in three years. Oil is bubbling around four-year lows. The greenback is running out of juice. Gold is showing occasional signs of life. Small caps are getting smaller. The volatility gauge, while still around historical norms, is popping.

The factoids are piling up like a steaming mound of bear dung. Throw it all into an environment where hazmat suits and facemasks are quickly becoming the trendy fall fashion, and it could be a whole lot worse. Despite all the weakness and uncertainty, the market hasn’t been down four days in a row yet this year. That’s a pretty amazing stat. Worthless, but amazing.

Today, the “little market that could” will give the streak another go, though early signs point to a strong start. Regardless, the trend has bulls on edge as we dig deeper into October.

Jeff Carter of the Points and Figures blog chewed on all the negative headwinds the market has to deal with, but says it’s already baked in to current levels for the most part. Except one thing.

“Government doesn’t always do what’s best for you. It does what’s best for government,” he said. “The Ebola scare will continue, and the market will continue to get spooked. As soon as things get under control, the market will stabilize. Until it does, keep your head down and stay long the VIX!”

Oh, right. That.

Key market gauges

Futures on the Dow US:YMZ4 and the S&P US:ESZ4 are cautiously up, following Wall Street’s rout and a brutal day on the Nikkei NIK, +0.17% , which fell more than 2%. Europe SXXP, -2.86% is flat after selling off on some bad sentiment news out of Germany, which also cut its growth forecast Tuesday. Gold GCZ24, still has a little momentum, while the dollar DXY, +0.41% is up slightly. Treasury prices US:10_YEAR , meanwhile, are up, up and away.

Earnings

A big week of earnings gets started this morning with a trio of financial heavies. J.P. Morgan Chase JPM, -0.21% results surfaced on the Internet way early. The bank posted a profit of $1.36 and revenue of $24.2 billion and shares are down about 0.5% in premarket trading. Citigroup C, -1.47% and Wells Fargo WFC, +0.08% also reported and shares of both are up a bit.

Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +1.36% is up after a profit beat and a raised outlook.

The tech highlight comes from chip giant Intel INTC, -0.85% after the bell. Read why Brian Gilmartin says financials will help the market this week.

The schedule really starts heating up Wednesday, when Bank of America BAC, -0.55% , Netflix NFLX, -0.05% and eBay EBAY, -0.06% report. Google GOOG, -2.37% and Goldman Sachs GS, +0.01% hit on Thursday while Morgan Stanley MS, -0.33% brings up the rear on Friday.

The quote of the day

“I honestly believe it’s getting better. It’s never been less expensive, it’s never been more transparent and the vast amount of information has made it easier for investors to make smart decisions. And I think it’s only going to keep getting better.” — Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche on the state of the financial-services industry.

The buzz

Ebola-related stocks continue to be a bright spot in this retreating market. Shares of hazmat-suit maker Lakeland Industries LAKE, +1.18% are up 16% premarket after surging 48% in the prior session. Similar action in facemask-maker Alpha Pro Tech APT, +0.63% , which is up another 12% early. Read why investors might lose their shirts on this one.

Then there’s microcap Versar US:VSR, which is up 54% premarket. This company also makes hazmat suits in addition to mobile decontamination shelters. Ebola bubble?

The fear is spilling over into airline stocks, which are getting absolutely hammered lately. Keep an eye on the likes of Delta DAL, -3.29% , American AAL, -3.22% , Southwest LUV, -1.41% and United UAL, -3.61% for any signs of a rebound. Check out how ugly this chart of the past five days is.

The chart of the day

“The cheap thrills of a Halloween horror flick. The ecstatic squeals from your four year old on Christmas morning. The pleasures of indoor plumbing... And along those lines: Stocks drop — when the Fed turns the spigot off.” That’s the gist of what Erik Swarts is illustrating with this chart posted on the Market Anthropology blog. The end of quantitative easing is a known known, of course, but that doesn’t stop it from being Groundhog Day all over again, he said.

“The simple fact remains: Since January 2009, all of the equity market gains have taken place during the weeks in which the Fed purchased Treasury bonds and mortgages,” Swarts explained. “And conversely, the stock market has declined during the weeks in which it has not.”

The call of the day

Voices of those adding to their positions, or establishing new ones, are understandably getting drowned out by the sound of the vacuum sucking the spirit from the bulls. That’s exactly why Georgetown professor and former Wall Streeter Salil Mehta is getting back in the game. “People now are selling stocks. It’s too late; the price has already fallen,” he said. “Just as easily, the same people will buy them back too late, after a rebound in the financial markets.” Out of the market for much of the year, Mehta says he’s been sleeping great. That could be about to change, of course.

“My plan at the end of February was to always pick up a little more risk in the portfolio, at a later time. That time happens to be now as relative fear permeates the streets,” he said in a blog post on Statistical Ideas. “There is more comfort now that we are no longer chasing lemmings unaware of where the cliff is, but we now seem to be somewhat beyond that.” Read about how Goldman Sachs says to play this market.

Random reads

Finally, Chris Brown drops some truth on Ebola.

Remember the idea of colonizing Mars within a few years? Scratch that. MIT says no.

Battling the lionfish invasion... by training sharks to eat them.

Relax, everybody. Kim Jong Un appears to be just fine.

That funny Italian guy is making a strong push to bring the lira back.

Penelope Cruz is named the “Sexiest Woman Alive”. Gawker follows up with a saucy NSFW headline and critique.

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