With no economic achievement to speak of, it will be fascinating to see how the urban middle class, the most important pillar of Narendra Modi's personal support, will react in Lok Sabha election 2019

Narendra Modi is the most talented politician of our times, not just in India but also farther afield. It is not easy to come up with names of elected leaders who are as popular as him. I can think of Russian president Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey, who are somewhat similar. I do not understand the politics of those nations to any great extent, but I do know that the support enjoyed by them is similar to Modi's in one sense. The leader in each of three instances is more popular than the party because he has broadened the traditional base.

Modi regularly polls an approval rating of over 70 percent. I recognise that such polls are inaccurate and to a large extent unscientific, but even so, the consistency with which he achieves this is remarkable given that his party has only ever got 31 percent of the all-India votes at its peak, which was in 2014. Anecdotal evidence, meaning the people I speak to about this, also confirms that he is a popular leader.

If we examine the case of Modi, we can discern the following types of people who are attracted to him and his style of politics. The most important is his base of the upper caste, middle class, and urban voters. The way BJP swept the cities in Gujarat confirms this analysis: even when the party's policies are failing in the rural and semi-rural areas, it is this base that remains firmly behind BJP, and to a larger extent, Modi personally.

The reasons for this support are several. The middle class is convinced that this country is run poorly and needs to be straightened out through radical actions. The idea of a strongman coming in to do this has always found appeal in this section, and as someone who is almost 50-years-old, I can report that this has been the case for at least three decades. This perspective, of course, is reductionist and simplistic, but I don't want to discuss that today.

The anti-reservations stance of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and its Brahminised view of culture are in alignment with how this group broadly sees the world around them. This community is highly nationalistic (they are the people who flock to the events that Modi holds with the Indian immigrants when he's abroad), which fits in with the posture of BJP. The powerful nationalism means that they are almost totally brainwashed on issues related to Pakistan and China. Fortunately, this missing ability to engage with complexity also falls into place with BJP's outlook.

Economically, this is the community that depends on high GDP growth, an expansion of white collar jobs, investments in modern infrastructure (for example, bullet train over rural roads and airports over state transport buses).

It is not easy to generalise on the matter of minority rights. However, while accepting that the dislike for minorities is something all South Asian communities have, an excess of violence will trouble this community, if only it clashes with their perceptions about India. The pure idea of 'secularism' does not appeal to them to any large extent and this is essentially a construct. Not many Indians vote for secularism.

Being middle class, and therefore, salaried for the most part, this group sets great store by 'merit' and is attracted to Modi because he is self-made unlike dynastic Rahul. The second category of Modi supporter is the regular BJP supporter, who gravitates towards the party because he comes from the dominant caste that supports the party, like the Lingayat in Karnataka, the Patidar in Gujarat and the Rajput in Rajasthan. The third one is the Indian who is attracted to Hindutva and believes that the enemy is internal and needs to be sorted out before India progresses.

I don’t think either of the latter two categories is particularly important or interesting for this argument because they will remain with BJP no matter who the party is led by, whether it's Modi or someone else. They support BJP now and will continue doing so in the future as well. It is the charisma and belief in Modi as an individual with the ability to deliver that separates the first category from the others.

We have all of 2018 before us, the last full year before the General Elections to Lok Sabha. The data is in on Modi's economic performance: he's a flop. Manmohan Singh has pointed out that Modi will be unable to match the average rate of growth delivered by Singh over a decade. In the corporate world (which loves Modi), where the chief executive is judged by quarterly results, Modi would have been fired. To me, the important data point is this: in 2009 the world's economy contracted because of the financial crisis. Today it is booming and growing at 3 percent. But even in this environment, India's growth has declined. This is because of the deliberate slowing down induced by eccentric actions like demonetisation.

This failure will influence Modi and BJP negatively when they prepare the pitch for the 2019 elections. There is no economic achievement to speak of (when was the last time you heard the 'fastest growing nation' line?) and I don't think there will be a positive campaign like the Achche Din type of 2014. It will be vicious and divisive. As an Indian, it will be depressing. As a writer and observer of our society, it will be utterly fascinating to see how the first category, to me the most important pillar of Modi's personal support, reacts to it.