A belated Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Seeing as this column was written before the Turkey Day games, I’m going to need you to delete as appropriate from the following two options:

‘Wow, what a great set of games yesterday. Who knew that Kirk Cousins could also kick field goals?’

Or:

‘The less said about yesterday’s games the better. Still, pretty amazing to see Kirk Cousins land a punt inside the 20.’

When you’re done with that, please join me in congratulating davelewis9, DrUHomes and YorkiePoo on becoming the only three players to predict all six games correctly in week 11. And then get on with making your picks for our latest round of games:

San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

The Chargers have scored the second-most points of any team in the league, and yet they occupy last place in the AFC West. The Texans have scored the fourth-fewest points of any team in the league, and yet they lead the AFC South. Of course, those numbers don’t tell the whole story but they might tell us more than simple win-loss records. Fourth-quarter collapses have cost San Diego dear, but this team has not lost any game by more than one score. The loss of defensive tackle Brandon Mebane to a torn biceps is significant, but offset part by the returns of safety Jahleel Addae and linebacker Denzel Perryman during the bye week. Houston’s perfect 5-0 home record does give me pause, but in the end I just don’t fancy Brock Osweiler’s chances of keeping up with with Philip Rivers.

Chargers to win

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

The Bengals could hardly be in any worse shape as they enter the last chance saloon. At 3-6-1, they are not yet out of contention in the AFC North – where no team is better than 5-5 – but a loss to division leaders Baltimore would just about do it. This was probably not the idea moment, then, for Cincinnati to lose both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard to injury. If there is one thing going for the Bengals, it is that they have dominated these rivals in recent match-ups – winning five straight head-to-heads. And the Ravens are not exactly flying right now. After opening the season 3-0, they have won just two of their last seven – and one of those was against Cleveland. Still, it is hard to move past the fact that Marvin Lewis and his staff were struggling to get the Bengals’ offense going even with a full set of weapons at their disposal.

Ravens to win

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

How many ways have the Cardinals found to shoot themselves in the foot? From botched snaps on last-minute field goals, to blocked punts and kicks (sometimes in the same game) they have consistently found ways to lose games they should have won. In Minnesota last weekend, they mostly outplayed the Vikings, but wound up suffering a six-point defeat after giving up touchdowns on both a 100-yard interception and kickoff return. There is still the seed of a good team in there somewhere. David Johnson has been possibly the most impressive back in the league, thriving despite a porous offensive line, and the defense is giving up the fewest yards of anybody. If they could put it all together, they would be capable of beating Atlanta. But will they? Of course not.

Falcons to win

Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)

The image of Luke Kuechly exiting the field on a cart, slumped forward with tears in his eyes, during Carolina’s win over New Orleans last Thursday was harrowing for reasons that go far beyond wins and losses. Nevertheless, from a sporting standpoint, his presumed absence this weekend – and it would be an astonishing development if he did emerge from the league’s concussion protocol to play on Sunday – will damage the Panthers immensely. The team’s sacks leader, Mario Addison, is also expected to miss out after suffering a foot injury in the same game, and cumulatively that is a lot to lose in a showdown with one of the NFL’s more potent offenses. Throw in the fact that the Panthers’ formerly reliable running game has ground to a halt in recent weeks, and a tall task starts to look unscalable.

Cam Newton and the Panthes have a tall task against the Raiders. Photograph: Jeremy Brevard/USA Today Sports

Raiders to win

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (Sunday 8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am GMT)

Was that a blip, or a warning sign for Kansas City? Many had questioned whether the Chiefs were as good as their record suggested – they now sit at 7-3, despite ranking in the bottom-third of the league for both total offense and total defense – but few expected them to lose at home to Tampa Bay. This team has traded heavily on its ability to generate turnovers, but the Broncos are not far behind on that front, and will be boosted by the return of Aqib Talib. The cornerback has three interceptions in seven starts, although his impact on Denver’s secondary runs much deeper. When he plays this season, the Broncos give up an average of just 175 passing yards per game. When he doesn’t, that figure rises to 255.7. The Chiefs were never likely to air it out at Mile High Stadium, but given that they have not fielded a 100-yard rusher since week six, they cannot rely entirely on the ground game, either.

Broncos to win

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (Monday 8.30pm ET/Tuesday 1.30am GMT)

After four consecutive defeats, the Packers travel to face a Philadelphia team that has a perfect 4-0 record at home. Are there any reasons to believe that they turn things around at the Linc? Maybe. One of Green Bay’s greatest deficiencies (admittedly, out of many) during this recent slide has been a shabby pass defense, but even this banged-up and bumbling secondary is unlikely to be carved apart by the likes of Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham. It is also true that, despite decidedly uneven performances, the Packers have continued to put points on the board. With both of the Eagles’ top two running backs’ hindered by injury, I’m not sure that they are equipped to do the same.

Packers to win