Fantasy Football — Week 16 Over/Under Valued Players

No clever title this week

Housekeeping:

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Key PPR findings this week:

QB:

Josh Allen/ Lamar Jackson — The algorithm can’t quit these two guys. Let’s dive into some data!

Josh Allen can go first. The first image below shows the points for Buf QB vs. the points against for NE, the bottom part of the image is those values smoothed. The second image below shows Josh Allen’s stats. DET looks like an outlier in his recent performance (DET is also the best defense against mobile QBs). If Allen gets back to his ~100 yard rushing ways, the points will come. The second image also shows no decline in overall attempts, which tells me he should get the opportunity to put up the rushing points.

Lamar Jackson: There isn’t a lot to dislike about the first graph below; passing yardage is the only concern I have. We have Jackson as our number one QB again this week, and I think it is justified. It is a considerably risky play though, given the passing yardage numbers. The second graph shows us how LAC is doing against QBs. Recently, they haven’t been doing good, at least against traditional passing QBs so that gives me some hope.

Russell Wilson — At the time of writing, we have him projected at 15 points. I would feel way better about that number if KC hasn’t been giving up 20 points to QBs all season (first graph below). Russell Wilson has generally performed well all season. I think the AI is too low on him; if I only had the charts below, I’d predict ~20 points, the AI looks at over 8,000 data points so what do I know?

RB:

Dalvin Cook- Hype. Last week we had Cook as our second highest ranked RB which worked out well so I can’t throw immediate shade our projections as our highest rated RB this week. The first graph gives me a little pause about the matchup. DET’s two recent performances were against teams with mid/low tier passing QBs, so DET just needed to stop the run, MIN doesn’t have that issue. The biggest concern about last week was the timeshare with Murray continues (second image below).

Mark Ingram — I like where he is ranked and projected this week. The first image shows his recent stats, and the second image shows his matchup. Ingram’s limited use in the passing game limits his upside in PPR If you combine Ingram’s limited use in the passing game with PIT trending back to under 20 points for opposing RBs, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of room for him and Kamara to score a ton of points.

Jordan Howard — Is back to averaging 18ish attempts over the last two games. For some reason, we have him with receiving yards but no targets but his lack of use in the passing game limits his upside in PPR (first image below). The AI has both Howard and Cohen around 9 points this week, which is probably a little low at first glance. After looking at this matchup, SF is giving up over 20 points a game to RBs, so our split of ~9 seems on par with what the defense has been giving up (second image below). In addition, SF is giving up quite a bit of yards on the ground, which is where Howard has value (third image). We just released upside predictions for each player on our site and Howard’s is projected at 20 points. Based on his matchup, I like the chances of him getting to his upside projection.

WR:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling — The AI could be showing MVS some matchup love after the Jets got torched by Houston last week. MVS hasn’t done anything in recent weeks to warrant where we have him so I’d consider him a highly speculative play based on the matchup.

Willie Snead — I feel our rankings are reflecting his recent uptick in targets (first image below). While Lamar Jackson hasn’t been lighting it up in the air with yards; he has been throwing the ball 20+ times a game. Snead appears to have emerged as a safety net for Jackson. Snead has been leading the team in targets over the past two games as well. Our rankings reflect a high chance he scores this week, which will ultimately end up determining if we are correct or not.

Adam Thielen — Our current projections are giving me Deja Vu from DeAndre Hopkins last week. For better or worse, the AI makes judgments without worrying about the person and won’t artificially put someone as number one because they SHOULD be the best. That being said, the overall performance of WRs on MIN has been trending down (first graph), and Thielen appears to be human because of that trend (second graph). Our projections have Dalvin cook as the top player this week; if that holds, you could see MIN feeding the ball to Cook and Murray while Thielen is left to starve. Because I am a human and I watch football, I know there is a real chance Thielen could end up the number one player and Cook could be starved.

My Take: We’re probably too low on Thielen this week because it’s Thielen, dude is excellent. There is a concern with MIN new offense coordinator and an unknown game plan for this week against a surprisingly good DET defense. In weekly leagues, you are starting him. In DFS, if ownership is low, I’ll start him, if it’s high, I’m staying away.

TE:

Eric Ebron — I’m sorry for recommending him last week. I stand by the analysis on the recommendation. The AI did a significant market correction this week, which may be an overreaction. The first image below shows the matchup. The Giants have been stout against TEs this season, except two games against the Eagles. If we couple that with the poor performance against Dallas, another great defense against TE, I can justify the projections from the AI this week.

PPR: