Unrest across the country appears to have multiple causes. What exactly sparked it, and where it will lead, remains unclear

It takes bravery, perhaps incaution, to forecast what will unfold in the year ahead. It would be true folly to predict what will happen in Iran in the coming hours and days. The protests, which reached their fourth day on Sunday, quickly spread across provinces to become the largest since the huge pro-reform rallies of 2009’s green movement. There have been unprecedented calls of “Death to [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei”, the supreme leader, and even reports of people lauding the monarchy toppled in the 1979 revolution. Other chants have attacked Tehran’s geopolitical ambitions: “Let go of Syria, think about us.” It is Iran’s growing heft in the region, and the sharpening of its rivalry with Saudi Arabia, that makes internal turbulence more significant than ever.

The brutal repression of the green movement weighs heavily on people’s minds. The interior minister warned that those who disrupt public order will “pay the price”; the Revolutionary Guards have threatened an “iron fist”; two protesters have died; some social media apps have been blocked.

Iranians chant ‘death to dictator’ in biggest unrest since crushing of protests in 2009 Read more

But very little about this wave of protests is clear. No one is sure how they started and spread, or which of the multiple demands have most force. It is impossible to know where they are heading. The deep intra-elite fissures – reflecting differences of ideology, policy and personal interests in finance and power – contribute to this uncertainty. Reformists are especially suspicious that the unrest began in Mashhad, home of Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline cleric defeated by Hassan Rouhani in last May’s presidential elections, and that “Death to Rouhani” chants were prominent there. The authorities’ initially limited response and the fact that these events have, unusually, received domestic press coverage have added to the questions.

Many of the early slogans reflected grievances over high unemployment and food prices, corruption and inequality. The nuclear accord of 2015 has failed to deliver the material improvements promised – sanctions remain a major cause of economic woes, though domestic policy plays its part too. Protesters appear to be largely working class; in 2009 they were more middle class. The unrest appears leaderless, with relatively few chants backing Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who led opposition then and are now under house arrest.

Donald Trump, still threatening to rip up the nuclear deal, tweeted gleefully: “Oppressive regimes cannot endure forever.” Plenty have seized on these events as proof that the regime change they want is imminent. But viewing them through the lens of wishful thinking in Washington will not help us gauge protesters’ motivations or levels of support for their various demands.

This is a test for President Rouhani, who won votes not only by promising economic improvements but also because he was considered a moderate. On Sunday he said that protests were legal, institutions should allow criticism, and state television should reflect different opinions, while adding that people should focus on solutions, and that their actions should not lead to violence or damage public property. Will the unrest peter out, will he achieve a peaceful resolution – or will there be the kind of crackdown Mahmoud Ahmadinejad oversaw in 2009? These protests will be causing anxiety across all camps. And they are likely to exacerbate and be exploited in Iran’s internal conflicts.