ZeroTalent Profile Joined December 2010 United States 297 Posts Last Edited: 2012-02-04 21:23:39 #1



Using SC2gears and some Excel kung-fu, I tried to answer these questions and more by looking at race win rates based on the length of the game from all games at MLG Providence. I came up with this set of charts showing what happens as the game progresses (click on the image for all the charts).







Data here:



The data does show some interesting results. But I'm not satisfied that the sample size is large enough. I'd love to repeat this analysis on a bigger dataset if there is fresher and larger replay pack lying around (coughplayhemcough).



To the Pros, Masters players, and everyone: do the numbers here line up with how you think about the game? Is Terran overmatched in the late game? Does Zerg grow stronger as the game goes on? Should you 6-pool (100% Z win rate in PvZ <5 minute games) or 2-rax every (80% T win rate in ZvT 5-10 minutes) every game? Discuss. Should Terran 2rax all day, every day? Should Zerg play for the late game in every matchup? Is TvP a race against the clock for Terran, losing whenever the Protoss gets Colossus and Templar Tech?Using SC2gears and some Excel kung-fu, I tried to answer these questions and more by looking at race win rates based on the length of the game from all games at MLG Providence. I came up with this set of charts showing what happens as the game progresses (click on the image for all the charts).Data here: MLG Providence Race/Length of Game Win Rates Note: times here use in-game time, not wall clock time. 5 minutes of wall-clock time is about 7 minutes of game-timeThe data does show some interesting results. But I'm not satisfied that the sample size is large enough. I'd love to repeat this analysis on a bigger dataset if there is fresher and larger replay pack lying around (playhem).To the Pros, Masters players, and everyone: do the numbers here line up with how you think about the game? Is Terran overmatched in the late game? Does Zerg grow stronger as the game goes on? Should you 6-pool (100% Z win rate in PvZ <5 minute games) or 2-rax every (80% T win rate in ZvT 5-10 minutes) every game? Discuss. Can we get an official definition of "all-in"? Please?

Ktk Profile Blog Joined May 2010 Korea (South) 750 Posts #2



-Providence: not all matchups really even in skill :p



-On average more >20min TvZ, ZvP and TvP than TvT matchups (maybe the TvTs were like 40 minutes long, but add em up guys) - maybe there were just fewer mirrors in general though. Actually that sounds right.



I like threads and graphs like these, but always have something to say about the data (don't stop though, for sure).-Providence: not all matchups really even in skill :p-On average more >20min TvZ, ZvP and TvP than TvT matchups (maybe the TvTs were like 40 minutes long, but add em up guys) - maybe there were just fewer mirrors in general though. Actually that sounds right. But I'm not satisfied that the sample size is large enough

Agreed



Also looking at the ridiculous increase in Z and decrease for P before 5 minutes, I'm guessing 6pool is the build against P AgreedAlso looking at the ridiculous increase in Z and decrease for P before 5 minutes, I'm guessing 6pool is the build against P

ZeroTalent Profile Joined December 2010 United States 297 Posts #3 On February 05 2012 06:32 Ktk wrote:

-On average more >20min TvZ, ZvP and TvP than TvT matchups (maybe the TvTs were like 40 minutes long, but add em up guys) - maybe there were just fewer mirrors in general though. Actually that sounds right.





I stopped at 30 minutes, and there the most common MU was TvT, TvZ was second and either ZvZ or ZvP third.



On February 05 2012 06:32 Ktk wrote:

Also looking at the ridiculous increase in Z and decrease for P before 5 minutes, I'm guessing 6pool is the build against P Also looking at the ridiculous increase in Z and decrease for P before 5 minutes, I'm guessing 6pool is the build against P



Yes, this represents 3 successful 6-pools, in the same way most of the 5-10 minute TvZ games are successful 2rax. I stopped at 30 minutes, and there the most common MU was TvT, TvZ was second and either ZvZ or ZvP third.Yes, this represents 3 successful 6-pools, in the same way most of the 5-10 minute TvZ games are successful 2rax. Can we get an official definition of "all-in"? Please?

windsupernova Profile Joined October 2010 Mexico 5272 Posts #4 Hahahaha, ZvZ oh you...



BTW by all MLG games you mean even open bracket?



Interesting data, don´t know if its really that relevant but its always interesting to see stuff like this "Its easy, just trust your CPU".-Boxer on being good at games

Hoon Profile Joined December 2010 Brazil 867 Posts #5 I thing line graphs are not the right ones to be used in this kind of analysis, specially at the end of the first one, which goes from 20+ to overall. SEn Fanclub: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=170834

ZeroTalent Profile Joined December 2010 United States 297 Posts #6 On February 05 2012 06:47 windsupernova wrote:

Hahahaha, ZvZ oh you...



BTW by all MLG games you mean even open bracket?



Interesting data, don´t know if its really that relevant but its always interesting to see stuff like this



Yes this includes the open bracket. If I used only pool play and the Sunday bracket there wouldn't be a meaningful number of games.





Yes this includes the open bracket. If I used only pool play and the Sunday bracket there wouldn't be a meaningful number of games. On February 05 2012 06:47 Hoon wrote:

I thing line graphs are not the right ones to be used in this kind of analysis, specially at the end of the first one, which goes from 20+ to overall.



Yeah ... what I wanted to do was just draw a straight line representing overall WRs. If I get a bigger dataset I'll try to make better graphs. Yeah ... what I wanted to do was just draw a straight line representing overall WRs. If I get a bigger dataset I'll try to make better graphs. Can we get an official definition of "all-in"? Please?

Paramo Profile Joined July 2008 Mexico 137 Posts #7 To me this is how balance stats should be presented, the length of game variable is really something that can say a lot. Hopefully you get a bigger sample next time =D

decaf Profile Joined October 2010 Austria 1797 Posts #8 20+ is very inaccurate :s Any chance you could do it until you reach 40+?

KimJongChill Profile Joined January 2011 United States 6426 Posts #9 I guess it makes somewhat intuitive sense, but it'd be nice to have a bigger sample size. MMA: U realise MMA: Most of my army EgIdra: fuck off MMA: Killed my orbital MMA: LOL MMA: just saying MMA: u werent loss

Mehukannu Profile Joined October 2010 Finland 421 Posts #10 Wow, nice graphs, also it is about time someone did something like this.

I just hope you manage to get bigger sample next time. I'll definitely look forward for it. =) C=('. ' Q)

ZeroTalent Profile Joined December 2010 United States 297 Posts Last Edited: 2012-02-04 22:43:28 #11 On February 05 2012 07:14 decaf wrote:

20+ is very inaccurate :s Any chance you could do it until you reach 40+?



I'd like to, but the sample size gets too small even at 30 minutes. By setting the cap at 20 minutes you get a sample that's roughly the size of the previous increments. I would need a much larger data set to go past 20 minutes.



Also by 20 minutes unless something has gone wrong, the game really ought to be in the "late game". Players' gas income is high enough to support lots of high-tier units. Neither player is really building up their economy much more. Most upgrades & tech has been completed. The game is much more about protecting later expansions, minimizing harassment damage, trading armies cost effectively, etc., than it is about exploiting timing attacks. I'd like to, but the sample size gets too small even at 30 minutes. By setting the cap at 20 minutes you get a sample that's roughly the size of the previous increments. I would need a much larger data set to go past 20 minutes.Also by 20 minutes unless something has gone wrong, the game really ought to be in the "late game". Players' gas income is high enough to support lots of high-tier units. Neither player is really building up their economy much more. Most upgrades & tech has been completed. The game is much more about protecting later expansions, minimizing harassment damage, trading armies cost effectively, etc., than it is about exploiting timing attacks. Can we get an official definition of "all-in"? Please?

K3Nyy Profile Joined February 2010 United States 1857 Posts #12 Very good indication of the strengths of each race in my opinion. Thanks for this!

Bagration Profile Blog Joined October 2011 United States 18142 Posts #13 Ha, love how winrates for Zerg is so high below 5 minutes. The good old 6 pool. Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever

TheTurk Profile Joined January 2011 United States 713 Posts #14

Thanks for putting this together. Really awesome stats.Thanks for putting this together. Starcraft is a lifestyle.

qbs Profile Joined January 2011 Poland 771 Posts #15

thx for the graph man ! late game T looks nice O_othx for the graph man ! DeMusliM !!!

Jayjay54 Profile Blog Joined November 2010 Germany 2294 Posts #16 On February 05 2012 07:24 Bagration wrote:

Ha, love how winrates for Zerg is so high below 5 minutes. The good old 6 pool.



still the best cheese, screw cannons. it's the mother of cheese. you can call it milk. or even cow. still the best cheese, screw cannons. it's the mother of cheese. you can call it milk. or even cow. Things are laid back in Unidenland. And may the road ahead be lid with dreams and tomorrows. Which are lid with dreams. Also.

Gyro_SC2 Profile Joined November 2010 Canada 536 Posts #17 With sc2gear can we know the pourcentage of win of a strategy? Can you know the unit composition at the end of each game?

dani` Profile Joined January 2011 Netherlands 2382 Posts #18 The 'Overall' at the end of the first graph kinda gives the wrong impression. The X-axis there represents time which is increasing left-to-right, while 'Overall' is simply the overall winrate, not based on time. If someone doesn't read the X-axis it seems like Terran winrate steadily goes down as time progresses, then suddenly spikes at the end.



But other than that nice data.

Primal666 Profile Joined November 2010 Slovenia 388 Posts #19 On February 05 2012 07:24 K3Nyy wrote:

Very good indication of the strengths of each race in my opinion. Thanks for this!

or current metagame or current metagame

AndreiDaGiant Profile Joined October 2010 United States 394 Posts #20 This is what i would expect. It feels like im on the clock vs zerg and protoss when i play as terran Terran Metal for the Win

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