“I’ve just seen a Snorlax!”

As John McDonnell rose to reply to the Philip Hammond’s Autumn Statement, many Labour MPs preferred to tweet on their phones. This sums up the attitude of many of them to the Leadership of Corbyn and McDonnell. Rather than listen to what the Shadow Chancellor had to say and put out the “Labour Line” on the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, they preferred to state their individual point of view for public consumption.

Why? It is because they still have absolutely no confidence in either Jeremy Corbyn or John McDonnell to offer coherent leadership to either oppose the Tories (on Brexit or anything else) or lead Labour to a General Election victory. At the moment, they are in a state of “acceptance” that Corbyn will remain Labour Leader until either a General Election is called or a sufficiently large crack appears in the Corbyn Coalition (e.g. Clive Lewis on Trident) to oust him before 2020. The main priority for these Labour MPs is, obviously, to try and keep their seats when the impending General Election rout comes and that means, effectively, standing as “Labour Independents” in all but name. That means keeping control of the “machine” of the CLP, making the right anti-Tory noises about particular issues and hoping that a combination of the “Labour Brand” and their individual vote will mean they hold on. So, don’t expect to see many photos of Jeremy Corbyn on their Election Leaflets. It also means that on the most immediate political problem the UK faces, Brexit, there will be individual responses from these MPs rather than a unified, coherent Party one.

One main reason for this is that the present Labour Leadership has, and is unlikely to have, any coherent reponse to Brexit.

“Article 50 has to be invoked now.”

On Friday, June 24th, at just after 7.00am, Jeremy Corbyn stated on live television, “Article 50 has to be invoked now so that we negociate an exit from the European Union.”

On November 5th, Jeremy Corbyn said Labour would block Article 50 if Theresa May didn’t accept Labour’s “bottom line”.

Next day, this was “clarified” by Labour’s Deputy Leader, Tom Watson, who stated that Labour would not block Article 50. The piece continued to say -

A source close to Mr Corbyn told the Telegraph: “We won’t be seeking to block Article 50, only amend or influence the government’s negotiating terms if they do not meet our red lines. “Our support for invoking article 50 is unconditional, but we would seek to amend or influence the government’s negotiating terms.”

By November 15th, the Labour Leadership had gone into full “Optimistic Brexit” mode. John McDonnell now saw “enormous opportunities” and continued “it is time to be more positive about Brexit”. Why, he was so positively optimistic over Brexit, he even believed that Labour could exert “moral pressure” on the Tories over workers’ rights! This enthusiastic embrace of Brexit did not go down very well with Keir Starmer.

So, what’s the problem, you might ask me? There is a coherent Labour Brexit policy after all. Namely Labour will not “go against the will of the British people”, will not oppose Article 50 being invoked but, at the same time, will seek to defend workers’ rights and work on policies for a Labour Government in a post-Brexit UK.

There is, however, one matter which is sure to tear apart this Brexit “consensus” between the Left and Right of Labour.

Immigration.

On September 28th, Jeremy Corbyn gave his views on immigration, even in a post-Brexit UK. As The Guardian reported -

The Labour leader is expected to use his speech to promise a Labour government will not “sow division” by promising to cut immigration.

The same piece continued -

The Leeds West MP, Rachel Reeves, told a fringe meeting on Tuesday that her constituency was like a “tinder box” and voters’ concerns about immigration and lack of control over their lives could “explode” on to the streets if they remained unaddressed.

Does anyone seriously believe that Jeremy Corbyn will change his positive views on immigration whether Labour takes an anti-Brexit view or a pro-Brexit one? Immigration is the issue that many Labour MPs in the North of England see as giving a helping hand to UKIP. It is why they will go along with Brexit and hope for the best. If anti-immigration Labour voters can be reassured about numbers and control in a post-Brexit UK then the UKIP threat can (perhaps) be seen off these MPs rationalise.

It only needs one interview and/or Leader’s Debate in a General Election for the inconsistancy of a pro-Brexit, pro-immigration Labour position to be highlighted. It would simultaneously alienate both pro and anti EU voters with an electoral “scissor effect” as Labour voters moved towards Parties with a more consistent, logical pro or anti EU position. As I said at the start, this will lead Labour MPs to adopt “Labour Independent” manifestos in a General Election in order to retain their seats. Labour’s internal “truce” will shatter at the first General Election Jeremy Corbyn interview.

Soft Brexit or Hard Brexit?

One thing that we in the UK have to understand is that it is not our choice whether we have a “Soft Brexit” or a “Hard Brexit”. The terms of our departure will be negotiated by EU27 and then we will be told what they are.

At the moment, it looks more likely to be a Hard Brexit, a very Hard Brexit. As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform wrote on November 21 -

Some Britons expect the Germans and Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, to safeguard their interests in the forthcoming negotiations. That is probably a mistake. The Germans have adopted a harsher position since the summer. They know that a hard Brexit would be somewhat injurious to their economy, but they think the British would suffer much more. And German leaders think that what matters most is keeping the 27 together and protecting the institutional coherence and integrity of the EU. They follow the French in thinking that if Britain was allowed ‘to have its cake and eat it’, by restricting free movement but staying in the single market, Marine Le Pen would benefit. She and other populists could point to the British and say that they were doing fine outside the EU.

This was surely the reasoning of French Socialist President, Hollande, when he backed a Hard Brexit.

Before we have the French Presidential election with Ms LePen though, we have the re-run Austrian Presidential election taking place on Sunday December 4th between the far right Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer and the Independent Alexander Van Der Bellen. Opinion polls have them at neck and neck. Hofer has stated there may be circumstances where Austria would have a referendum on EU membership.

Without a doubt, a win for Hofer would be another ominous sign of far right sentiment rising throughout the EU. It would give yet another boost to the Presidential campaign of Marine LePen.

It would also be another reason why the leaders of EU27 would be less likely to give a “Soft Brexit” to the UK.

Remain.

Labour must be a Remain party and Article 50 must be opposed.

Vote Leave was built on lies (e.g. £350 million more for the NHS) and Brexit is already going to ensure that austerity continues for the forseeable future. If Article 50 is invoked in March 2017, as Theresa May intends, then there will be more economic disruption as the uncertainty of negotiation starts. Let the Tories carry the responsibility for this economic chaos.

For those concerned about the effects of immigration on housing, schools, services etc, more resources are needed to help those areas cope. That is one thing the Left and Right of Labour can unite on. There is, however, one thing to be sure about, a Hard Brexit will lead to the migration of jobs to other countries.

Any Brexiteer who says we can pick and choose from the “Four Freedoms” (see below) is lying. As EU Council President Donald Tusk said on October 13th, they are non-negociable.

The choice is therefore “Hard Brexit” or “No Brexit”. The latter is the choice Labour should take.