The danger to chocolate comes from an increase in evapotranspiration, especially since the higher temperatures projected for West Africa by 2050 are unlikely to be accompanied by an increase in rainfall, according to business-as-usual carbon dioxide emissions scenarios. In other words, as higher temperatures squeeze more water out of soil and plants, it's unlikely that rainfall will increase enough to offset the moisture loss.

Some of the research highlighted by the IPCC 2014 report is a 2013 study headed by Peter Läderach. Läderach authored a 2011 paper giving a pretty dire forecast for cacao cultivation; the 2013 study reaches slightly less worrisome conclusions, though challenges to West Africa cacao growers remain.