�I see this as a winnable race,� Cianci said. �I�ve said that from the beginning.�

PROVIDENCE, R.I. � With six weeks to go before the Nov. 4 mayoral election, Vincent A. Cianci Jr. has a 5.6 point lead over Democrat Jorge O. Elorza in a Providence Journal/WPRI-12 poll. But with significant numbers of voters still undecided, the lead is far from safe.

The poll showed 38 percent of those questioned said they would vote for Cianci, 32.4 percent for Elorza and 5.8 percent for Republican Daniel S. Harrop III. But with 23.9 percent saying they hadn�t made up their minds or refusing to answer, the race is still up for grabs.

At 38 percent, Cianci, running as an independent, �is closing in on where he needs to be� to win in November, said Joseph Fleming of Fleming & Associates, which conducted the poll. But the high number of undecideds, between 18 and 25 percent in nearly every demographic group polled, gives the lesser-known Elorza, a 37-year-old college law professor who has never held public office, potential room to grow, he said.

The former mayor said Tuesday it was good to be ahead, but the high number of undecided responses showed it was still a horse race, though one he thought he could win.

�I see this as a winnable race,� Cianci, 73, said. �I�ve said that from the beginning.�

He said the results mirrored what his campaign had been seeing in its polling and what it had been hearing in the rumor mill about polls by other campaigns.

�We�re enthused,� he said. �We�re extremely happy that we have a clear path to victory.�

The Elorza campaign said it saw its own path in the results.

�The momentum is on our side,� Elorza campaign manager Marisa O�Gara said in a prepared statement. �It seems like Mr. Cianci has been hovering around 38 percent since the day he announced.�

Harrop, 60, said given Cianci�s decades in the limelight and the attention given the Democratic primary on Sept. 9, he wasn�t surprised by his numbers.

�I�m glad I�m not fourth,� he said. �But then, if you count the undecideds, maybe I am.�

Nonetheless, he said he was committed to bringing the Republican Party�s message to city voters.

�We are just getting started,� he said.

Fleming said that the race could hinge on who defines Elorza first and best.

Elorza needs to get out to a fast start, introducing himself to voters as a competent administrator who can do the job of mayor, Fleming said.

�There are large numbers of voters who don�t know who he is,� Fleming said.

Cianci, on the other hand, needs to allay concerns about his own downside and create doubts about Elorza, Fleming said.

�He has to define him now,� Fleming said.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 14-17 and involved calling 503 registered Providence voters by landline and cellular phone. Interviews were done in English and Spanish. The poll�s margin of error is 4.38 percent, meaning any of the candidates� percentages could be up or down by that amount.

Cianci, who is attempting a comeback 12 years after leaving office following a municipal corruption conviction, was strongest among independents, male voters and those ages 40-59. Elorza led among Democrats and voters ages 18-39. But in all the voter groups, anywhere from 18 percent to 25 percent said they were unsure of who they would vote for.

Among voters who said they�ve decided, many seemed set on their choice. Among Cianci supporters, 71.7 percent said they were definitely for him and 18.3 percent said there was a good chance they would change their minds. For Elorza, 74.2 percent said they were definitely committed and 16 percent said they might change their minds.

It was a different story for those who chose Harrop. Among the Republican�s supporters, 35.4 percent said they would stick with him while 48.3 percent said there was a good chance they could switch.

The poll also showed that while voters seem to know how they feel about Cianci, Elorza is more of an unknown.

Cianci, who served as mayor for more than 21 years over two runs in City Hall before going to federal prison in 2002, was rated very or somewhat favorably by 52.9 percent of those polled, while 37.2 percent saw him in a somewhat or very unfavorable light. Only 9.9 percent said they didn�t know how they felt about him.

While 45.3 percent of respondents said they had a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Elorza and 17.5 percent said they had a somewhat or very negative opinion of him, 37.2 percent responded that they didn�t know.

The numbers for Harrop, an East Side psychiatrist who has run for mayor before, were a more extreme version of Elorza�s. His very/somewhat favorable rating was 12.7 percent, the somewhat/very unfavorable opinion was 17.5 percent and �don�t know� was 69.8 percent.

Men went for Cianci over Elorza by 42.4 percent to 31.9 percent, with 5.9 percent for Harrop and 19.7 percent not sure or not answering. Cianci led Elorza among women as well, but by a much closer 34 percent to 32.8 percent, with Harrop at 5.7 percent and 28.5 percent unsure or not answering.

Among voters under 40, Elorza led Cianci 35.3 percent to 32.8 percent, with Harrop at 6 percent and undecided or not answering at 25.8 percent. But Cianci held a strong 12.7 point lead over Elorza among those ages 40-59, 43.1 percent to 30.4 percent, with Harrop at 6.4 percent and 20.1 percent not sure or not answering.

With voters over 60, one of the most reliable demographics on Election Day, Cianci led Elorza, but by only 35.6 percent to 33.3 percent and 26.6 percent undecided or not answering. Harrop was cited by 4.4 percent of that group.

Union members went for Cianci over Elorza, 44 percent to 36.3 percent, with Harrop getting 6.6 percent and 13.2 undecided or not answering.

One issue that could be a winner for any candidate was crime. Overall, 60 percent of those responding said they were �very� concerned about crime in the city while 30.2 percent said they were �somewhat� concerned. Only 7.8 percent said they were not very concerned or not concerned at all. The rest said they weren�t sure.

It carried over to the professed supporters of the mayoral candidates as well, with 92.2 percent of Cianci�s voters very or somewhat concerned about crime, 89.6 percent of Elorza supporters and 96.5 percent of Harrop�s backers.

Fleming said those numbers indicate that anyone who wants to win the November mayoral election and succeed Angel Taveras in office better have something to say about public safety.

Poll methodology: The Providence Journal/WPRI-12 poll was conducted from Sept. 14 to Sept. 17 by Fleming Associates, of Cumberland. Results are based on a telephone (landlines and cell) survey of 503 Providence registered voters, who passed two screens designed to establish their registration status and likelihood of voting in the November general election. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. For the overall sample, the margin of error is about 4.38 percent. Respondents' telephone numbers were selected using a computer generated random sample of Providence residents. To avoid under-representing young voters, interviewers were instructed to ask for the youngest person of voting age presently at home. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding off. Read all the questions and responses here.