How important will the student vote be at the 2015 election? According to a recent report by the NUS, 191 constituencies have a student population large enough to overthrow the majority that the current MP gained in 2010.

But some student votes could be more important to the election result than others. Those living in closely-fought marginal seats are likely to hold the most sway over the 2015 result.

Other factors could also play a big part, such as as a collapse in national support for the Liberal Democrats, or a surge in support for Ukip, the Green party, or the SNP.



The following 10 universities are home to the student voters we think could be the most influential on May 7.







1. University of Warwick



Constituency: North Warwickshire



Result in 2010: Conservatives gained the seat from Labour with the third smallest majority of the election – just 54 votes.

What’s the story? Warwick students have been in the news recently after a campus demonstration calling for an end to tuition fees was raided by police. Three students were arrested, and police were accused of excessive force after using pepper spray and a Taser – sparking further protests against police on campus.



If the students’ political engagement converts into votes at the ballot box, it’s easy to see them handing Labour back a seat it had previously held for 18 years. Coventry University is also close by, and the strong student population living over the constituency border – in the marginal of Coventry South – could also be crucial come polling day.



2. Cardiff University

Constituency: Cardiff North



Result in 2010: the Conservatives gained the seat from Labour by a whisker – winning by 194 votes.



What’s the story? With students from both Cardiff and Cardiff Metropolitan University living in the constituency, Labour will be hoping that the student vote will help them wipe out the tiny Tory majority.



3. University of East Anglia

Constituency: Norwich South



Result in 2010: The Lib Dems gained the seat from Labour’s then home secretary, Charles Clarke – with a majority of 310 votes.

What’s the story? Number six on Labour’s list of target seats for the 2015 election, Norwich south is home to the University of East Anglia.

No strangers to political engagement, UEA students most recently made global news after launching a campaign to save water by peeing in the shower.



In 2010, Norwich South was considered a true three-way marginal between the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour. But the Green party also polled strongly, and if enough eco-friendly students turn up at the ballot box they, could create one of the only four-way marginals at the 2015 election.

Following the Scottish Referendum, Edinburgh students are as politically energised as ever and set to make a difference in May.

4. University of Edinburgh

Constituency: Edinburgh South

Result in 2010: Labour narrowly beat the Lib Dems by 316 votes.



What’s the story? Young people bucked the trend of being a low-turnout demographic at the Scottish referendum. As many as 68% of 18- to 24-year-olds voted – a much stronger showing than the 51.8% that voted at the 2010 election.

The main University of Edinburgh campus is in the Labour safe seat of Edinburgh East. But the tight marginal of Edinburgh south is also close to the university (and nearby Edinburgh Napier University) giving the newly politicised Scottish youth its best chance of making a difference in May.

Labour won the narrowest of majorities over the Lib Dems in both 2005 and 2010, but this time around will face more of a threat from the SNP and Conservatives.

5. Lancaster University

Constituency: Lancaster and Fleetwood

Result in 2010: The Conservatives managed a majority of a mere 333 votes over Labour.



What’s the story? In 2010, the third-placed Lib Dems gained almost 20% of the vote, due in part to a strong showing from the students and university staff. With the Lib Dem candidate unlikely to poll so well this time around, the seat may well go to the candidate who can persuade the lion’s share of students to vote for them.

6. University of Wolverhampton



Constituency: Wolverhampton South West



Result in 2010: A two-horse race resulted in the Conservatives gaining the seat from Labour with a majority of just 1.7% – or 691 votes.



What’s the story? The University of Wolverhampton has over 20,000 students. Even allowing for those who don’t live in the constituency, or won’t be registered to vote, that should still be enough for students to have a crucial impact in such a tight marginal.



7. University of Cumbria



Constituency: Carlisle



Result in 2010: The Conservatives won by 853 votes, gaining a seat that Labour had previously held since 1959.



What’s the story? Formed in 2007 from the Cumbria Institute of the Arts, St Martin’s College and Cumbria campuses of the University of Central Lancashire; this new university is also home to a student population that could be crucial at May’s election.



8. University of Sussex

Constituency: Brighton Pavilion



Result in 2010: The Green party gained its first seat with a majority of 1,252 votes.



What’s the story? The University of Sussex is home to one of the most politically active student bodies in the country. Past action has included major demonstrations against the “privatisation” of the university, and most recently a protest in Sainsbury’s – staged after a staff member ejected two lesbians for kissing in the aisles.



The Green party is the only major political party to back the recent campaign for free higher education, so in theory it’s a natural choice for student voters. Brighton Pavilion is the party’s only seat and will be closely contested in May.

Political blogger Iain Dale recently predicted a narrow Labour gain – but with a little help from the increase in national support for the Greens, and potentially students at both the University of Sussex and Brighton University – Caroline Lucas could well hold her seat.



9. University of Bristol



Constituency: Bristol West

Result in 2010: The Liberal Democrats defeated Labour by a comfortable margin of 11,366.

What’s the story? Despite looking, on the face of it, like a Liberal Democrat safe seat, Bristol West actually makes for one of the most interesting political battlegrounds this election.

A collapse in national support for the Lib Dems has led Labour to fancy its chances of squeaking the seat in May. But after the last local council elections gave the Green party the most votes, the New Statesman tipped the seat as the most likely to give the party its second MP.



As with the Green’s current seat in Brighton Pavilion, over 20% of the electorate are students. However, a change to election registration could scupper the Greens’ chances: students now have to sign up individually rather than relying on a household registration. This could mean fewer of them are registered to vote.

While some universities brought in electronic enrolment systems, the University of Bristol did not, and its students will have to register themselves. So while they could decide the seat – much will depend on how many of them are signed up in time.

10. University of Sheffield



Constituency: Sheffield Hallam

Result in 2010: A Lib Dem win by 15,284 votes at the last election should make this seat as safe as they come. But hold your horses...



What’s the story? The constituency is held by deputy prime minister Nick Clegg. Previously a hero among the young for pledging to oppose any increase in tuition fees, he left students feeling angry and betrayed after he voted in favour of the coalition’s proposed increase to a £9k cap. A limp attempt to apologise did nothing to rebuild bridges.



While both the University of Sheffield and Sheffield Hallam University are technically based in the Sheffield Central constituency, there are plenty of students living in Sheffield Hallam – around 15% of the total electorate.

A front page story in the Times at the end of 2014 suggested that Labour are planning to “decapitate” Clegg. And with the support of students, it might just manage it – a recent poll gave Clegg a lead of only three points over the Labour candidate, Oliver Coppard.



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