Fantasy Football Target Analysis

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Juju Smith-Schuster lead all wide receivers in targets with 19. He was one of 17 receivers who had 10 targets or more in Week 2. Allen Robinson (0.39) and Michael Thomas (0.37) for nearly 40 percent of their respective team’s targets. DeAndre Hopkins (249), John Brown (221), and Kenny Golladay (213) were the only wide receivers with 200 or more Air Yards. Robinson (0.64) also led all wide receivers in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Robinson (1.01) also had a very high Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Other notable wide receivers with high WOPRs in Week 2 include Julio Jones (0.95), DeAndre Hopkins (0.93). T.Y. Hilton (0.82), and Corey Davis (0.80). You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I have broken down the top-114 most targeted WRs into tiers and will provide a brief analysis on a few players per tier.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 1 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT 2 19 13 121 31.1 104 2 Antonio Brown PIT 2 17 9 67 15.7 192 3 Allen Robinson CHI 2 14 10 83 18.3 129

Juju Smith-Schuster is averaging 13.5 targets per game and is currently averaging more receiving yards per game (120) than Antonio Brown (80). The Steelers have a favorable matchup this week against a Buccaneers secondary that is currently ranked 31st in opponent passing yards per game (376.5).

Brown, on the other hand, is averaging a ridiculous 16.5 targets per game this season, but currently has negative receiving fantasy points over expectation per target through two games. There is a high probability that this trend will change based on his statistical body of work.

Allen Robinson is averaging 10.5 targets per game. He has accumulated 236 Air Yards through two games which rank 13th amongst wide receivers. Robinson could go boom against a Cardinals secondary allowing 294.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 4 Stefon Diggs MIN 2 13 9 128 35.9 159 4 Adam Thielen MIN 2 13 12 131 31.1 115 4 Michael Thomas NO 2 13 12 89 30.9 82 4 Golden Tate DET 2 13 7 109 18.8 103

Adam Thielen is currently averaging 12.5 targets per game. He is very efficient with the volume posting 0.38 fantasy points over expectation per target.

Stefon Diggs is only averaging 9.5 targets per game, but is even more efficient with that volume than Thielen (0.93 fantasy points over expectation per target).

Michael Thomas is averaging 15 targets per game with a RACR of 1.19. The only receiver with more targets than through two games is Brown (34).

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Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 8 Nelson Agholor PHI 2 12 8 88 23 109 8 Davante Adams GB 2 12 8 64 20.4 117 8 Mike Evans TB 2 12 10 83 22.3 108 11 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 2 11 6 110 23 249 11 T.Y. Hilton IND 2 11 7 83 21.3 72 11 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 2 11 7 92 16.2 119 11 Demaryius Thomas DEN 2 11 5 18 6.8 127

The only receiver with more air yards than DeAndre Hopkins (423) is Julio Jones (477). He has a difficult matchup against a Giants secondary that has allowed 164 passing yards per game this season.

Demaryius Thomas is averaging 10.5 targets per game, but only averaging 40.5 receiving yards per game.

Mike Evans has been ridiculously efficient so far this season posting positive numbers as a receiver (1.19 fantasy points over expectation per target).

Quincy Enunwa is currently leading all Jets receivers in targets (21) and air yards (179) through two games. He has a favorable matchup against a Browns defense currently ranked 22 in passing yards allowed per game (263).

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 15 John Brown BAL 2 10 4 92 19.2 221 15 Amari Cooper OAK 2 10 10 116 21.6 81 15 Michael Crabtree BAL 2 10 5 56 10.6 90 18 AJ Green CIN 2 9 5 69 29.9 91 18 Will Fuller HOU 2 9 8 113 25.3 133 18 Brandin Cooks LAR 2 9 7 159 22.9 134 18 Tyler Boyd CIN 2 9 6 91 21.1 114 18 Kenny Golladay DET 2 9 6 89 20.9 213 18 Marvin Jones DET 2 9 4 54 15.4 168 18 Donte Moncrief JAX 2 9 4 34 13.4 120 18 Robert Woods LAR 2 9 6 81 14.1 107 18 Devin Funchess CAR 2 9 7 77 14.7 81 18 Julio Jones ATL 2 9 5 64 11.4 195 18 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 2 9 4 51 9.1 132

Kenny Golladay is averaging 10.5 targets per game and has the fourth most air yards (333) among receivers.

John Brown (14) has two fewer targets than Michael Crabtree (16), but is leading the Ravens in Air Yards (268).

Devin Funchess is averaging seven targets and 59 receiving yards per game, but is getting outproduced by running back Christian McCaffrey. He is averaging 12 targets and 73.5 receiving yards per game.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 29 Keelan Cole JAX 2 8 7 116 24.6 89 29 Terrelle Pryor NYJ 2 8 4 84 12.4 116 29 Keenan Allen LAC 2 8 6 67 12.7 41 29 Willie Snead BAL 2 8 5 54 10.4 62 33 Sammy Watkins KC 2 7 6 100 19.1 87 33 Jarius Wright CAR 2 7 5 62 17.2 56 33 Tyler Lockett SEA 2 7 5 60 17 134 33 Torrey Smith CAR 2 7 3 33 12.3 114 33 Jarvis Landry CLE 2 7 5 69 11.9 75 33 Corey Davis TEN 2 7 5 55 10.5 66 33 Rashard Higgins CLE 2 7 5 47 9.7 49 33 Taylor Gabriel CHI 2 7 4 30 8.7 49 33 Phillip Dorsett NE 2 7 5 44 9.4 77 33 Josh Doctson WAS 2 7 4 37 7.7 81 33 Ted Ginn NO 2 7 4 55 7.5 134

Corey Davis is averaging 10 targets per game and is leading the Titans receivers in air yards (179).

Keelan Cole is only averaging six targets per game with positive receiving fantasy points over expectation per target of 1.22.

Jarvis Landry has a 32 percent target share entering Week 3.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 44 Tyreek Hill KC 2 6 5 90 20 92 44 Chris Godwin TB 2 6 5 56 16.6 75 44 Laquon Treadwell MIN 2 6 2 23 10.3 45 44 Geronimo Allison GB 2 6 6 64 12.4 46 44 Paul Richardson WAS 2 6 4 63 10.3 104 44 Cooper Kupp LAR 2 6 6 63 12.3 6 44 Brandon Marshall SEA 2 6 4 44 8.4 57 44 Kamar Aiken PHI 2 6 5 39 8.9 33 44 Randall Cobb GB 2 6 4 30 7 22 44 Courtland Sutton DEN 2 6 1 9 1.9 125

Courtland Sutton is averaging 5.5 targets per game, but has accumulated 192 air yards.

Tyreek Hill has only been targeted 15 times this season with an aDOT of 16.5 yards.

Geronimo Allison (14) has nearly as many targets as Randall Cobb (16).

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Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 54 Chris Hogan NE 2 5 3 42 19.2 34 54 Dede Westbrook JAX 2 5 4 83 17.7 17 54 Calvin Ridley ATL 2 5 4 64 16.7 33 54 Albert Wilson MIA 2 5 3 37 13.5 66 54 James Washington PIT 2 5 1 14 8.4 127 54 Deonte Thompson DAL 2 5 4 33 7.3 77 54 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 2 5 3 28 5.8 50 54 Christian Kirk ARI 2 5 4 27 6.7 21 54 Sterling Shepard NYG 2 5 3 24 5.4 54 54 Cordarrelle Patterson NE 2 5 3 18 5.3 -8 54 Robby Anderson NYJ 2 5 3 27 3.7 48

Larry Fitzgerald is only averaging 7.5 targets per game which is well below his career average of 9.4.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 65 DeSean Jackson TB 2 4 4 129 22.9 87 65 Antonio Callaway CLE 2 4 3 81 17.8 68 65 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 2 4 4 96 13.6 80 65 Taywan Taylor TEN 2 4 3 32 12.2 9 65 Pierre Garcon SF 2 4 4 57 9.7 48 65 Jamison Crowder WAS 2 4 2 8 5.7 44 65 Danny Amendola MIA 2 4 4 32 7.2 18 65 Jakeem Grant MIA 2 4 2 27 5.2 17 65 Jordy Nelson OAK 2 4 2 30 5 42 65 Martavis Bryant OAK 2 4 4 30 7 9 65 Rishard Matthews TEN 2 4 2 8 2.8 -1 65 John Ross CIN 2 4 1 8 1.5 25 65 Andre Holmes BUF 2 4 0 0 0 97 65 D.J. Chark JAX 2 4 1 13 0.3 17

DeSean Jackson has caught all nine of his targets through two games.

Jakeem Grant is leading the Dolphins receivers in targets (11) and air yards (133).

Jamison Crowder is averaging 4.0 targets, 2.5 receptions, and 20 receiving yards per game.

Rk Name Team Wk TAR REC YDS PPR Air Yards 79 Seth Roberts OAK 2 3 3 43 13.3 27 79 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 2 3 2 19 9.9 34 79 Anthony Miller CHI 2 3 2 11 9.1 12 79 Zay Jones BUF 2 3 2 63 8.3 73 79 Tyrell Williams LAC 2 3 3 48 7.8 17 79 Bruce Ellington HOU 2 3 3 45 7.5 34 79 Cody Latimer NYG 2 3 2 41 6.1 73 79 Jaron Brown SEA 2 3 3 36 6.6 34 79 Robert Foster BUF 2 3 2 30 5 37 79 Chester Rogers IND 2 3 3 17 4.7 3 79 Kenny Stills MIA 2 3 2 17 3.7 20 79 Cole Beasley DAL 2 3 2 13 3.3 28 79 Chris Moore BAL 2 3 2 9 3.1 16 92 Tavon Austin DAL 2 2 2 79 17.4 91 92 D.J. Moore CAR 2 2 1 51 12.8 84 92 Mike Williams LAC 2 2 2 27 10.7 27 92 Chris Conley KC 2 2 2 17 7.7 12 92 Dante Pettis SF 2 2 1 35 4.5 32 92 Ryan Grant IND 2 2 2 30 5 20 92 Tim Patrick DEN 2 2 1 26 3.6 16 92 Ryan Switzer PIT 2 2 1 14 2.9 11 92 Mohamed Sanu ATL 2 2 2 19 3.5 5 92 Tajae Sharpe TEN 2 2 1 14 2.4 30 92 Allen Hurns DAL 2 2 1 9 1.9 7 92 Adam Humphries TB 2 2 1 8 1.8 0 92 Michael Gallup DAL 2 2 1 5 1.5 39 92 Shelton Gibson PHI 2 2 0 0 0 52 92 Trent Taylor SF 2 2 0 0 0 2 92 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 2 2 1 -1 0.9 -1 108 Kendrick Bourne SF 2 1 1 4 7.4 5 108 Demarcus Robinson KC 2 1 1 3 7.3 3 108 Marvin Hall ATL 2 1 1 30 4 21 108 Tre’Quan Smith NO 2 1 1 18 2.8 18 108 Terrance Williams DAL 2 1 1 12 2.2 6 108 Josh Bellamy CHI 2 1 1 6 1.6 -1 108 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 2 1 1 3 1.3 3

Kelvin Benjamin is leading the Bills in targets with 11 and has accumulated 229 air yards, but has not had success converting them into receiving yards.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. Next week I will incorporate a receiver’s target volume not only for the current week, but also for the season. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

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