Garcia seems to embody both the triumphs and the limitations of contemporary progressivism. His strong showing in the first round of voting was a huge win, but the fact that he hasn't been very competitive since seems to suggest either an immaturity of tactics or a glass ceiling for progressive Democrats. They made an impressive early showing, but when it comes to the vote that matters, Garcia and his allies don't have what it takes to get across the finish line.

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Rahm Emanuel is, perhaps, a surprising target for the left. After all, Emanuel has devoted much of his career to screwing Republicans, though the famously profane pol would likely use a different gerund. As chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, he helped engineer his party's takeover of the House in 2006, and then served as Barack Obama's first White House chief of staff. In both roles, he irked progressives. As DCCC chair, he recruited a host of business-friendly centrist candidates, which he saw as the best way to take seats away from Republicans, but which progressives saw as the route to a squishy caucus (both arguments saw some vindication). In the White House, he was an outspoken opponent of pursuing healthcare reform, but was central in negotiations bringing the pharmaceutical industry on board.

Emanuel's tenure as mayor of Chicago has confirmed all of the left's suspicions about him. He has been far too concerned, they say, about winning the approval of wealthy donors and pursuing initiatives that appealed to well-heeled Chicagoans and downtown businessmen. He has imposed painful budget cuts (though it's likely that any mayor would have had to trim spending). As part of an aggressive school-reform program, he closed almost 50 schools, and fought the Chicago Teachers Union during a weeklong strike. Meanwhile, the city saw a huge spike in violence. The mayor cozied up to newly elected Republican Governor Bruce Rauner, and Rahm's largest single donor was a billionaire Republican financier.

By August 2014, it wasn't just motivated progressives who had turned on Emanuel. Though he had easily cleared the 50 percent mark required to avoid a runoff back in 2011—his biggest hurdle was proving he was really a Chicago resident—his approval rating slid to a dismal 35 percent. But Emanuel had a huge war chest, timed his nadir well, and got some good luck. Two of his most formidable rivals didn't run. Toni Preckwinkle, president of the Cook County Board, decided not to enter the race. Karen Lewis, the head of the teachers union, was diagnosed with a brain tumor and also decided not to run.

But Emanuel still had to contend with four other candidates, including Garcia and businessman Willie Wilson, who ultimately finished third. Despite outspending his rivals, especially on TV advertising, and despite closing the gap significantly, the mayor ended up with about 46 percent of the vote, short of the 50 percent he needed to avoid a runoff. While no one doubted he'd get a plurality of the vote, Garcia's supporters and some outside observers predicted that if Emanuel couldn't win the outright majority, he would be in trouble. A head-to-head match would allow the the divided anti-Emanuel forces to unite and it would inspire national money to flood into the race, closing the gap.