As I write this, the first 62 percent of votes from the Iowa caucuses are trickling in. Things might change, but in my experience it’s unlikely the results will change very much. Here is what we can learn from Monday night’s debacle:

When I was Democratic Party chairman in 2000, the secretary of State developed a plan for five regional primaries, 10 states each, to be held in the first five months of the year. Each region would rotate its place each presidential election. So, for example, the region that was first in 2024 would be fifth in 2028. I endorsed that plan over 24 years ago. So maybe I was wrong. It looks like Iowa will bring along changes, just not the ones we expected.

Edward G. Rendell was the 45th governor of Pennsylvania. He is a former mayor of Philadelphia and former district attorney in that city. He served as chairman of the Democratic National Committee during the 2000 presidential election. Follow him on Twitter @GovEdRendell.