The FOMC passed the torch to the ECB and Draghi on Wednesday. Now it is time to see if the ECB’s actions can match Draghi’s verbal quantitative easing. All eyes will be on the Press conference following the rate decision around 8:15 ET Thursday. Viewers will be watching to see if the ECB can deliver on reducing borrowing costs to Spain and Italy and if so how will they do it. The ultimate scenario would be the ECB vowing to buy debt until yields on Italian and Spanish bonds fall to 4%. This outcome is unlikely. Rather signalling the restart SMP’s or some variation of 4 or 5 year LTRO will be the outcome. Depending on the amount of cash promised to any programs and the duration the effect on the EUR crosses could vary.

The EURUSD fell today following the release of the FOMC minutes. The pair found traction at the weekly low at 1.220. If this level is broken the cross could find support at 1.2180. Resistance still rests at 1.2330. If the pair likes what is delivered in the ECB press conference we could see a push higher towards the 1.24 reistance level. If the market is disappointed a move towards the monthly lows 1.2040 could play out.

SUP 1.2220 1.2180

RES 1.2330 1.24