Weeks ago, when Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac called for the southern finance ministers' conclave at Thiruvananthapuram, every other south Indian state expressed concern and willingness to participate, while Tamil Nadu government chose not to respond. The state decided to sit on it, and it comes hardly as a surprise that Tamil Nadu Finance Minister O. Panneerselvam gave it a miss on Tuesday when the finance ministers of all the six southern states came together.

A week ago, while on a hunger strike against the Centre over its failure to set up the Cauvery Management Board, Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palanisamy had said, “We will not compromise state’s rights. The state government will fight legally in all ways to ensure our rights.” His deputy and Finance Minister Panneerselvam seconded him, saying the state’s rights will be protected. A week later, on Tuesday, when the finance ministers of the southern states met to discuss state’s federalism advocacy and the implications of the 15th Finance Commission, Panneerselvam was conspicuous by his absence.

When the meeting was called by Isaac, chief ministers of other south Indian states—Siddaramaiah, Chandrababu Naidu and Pinarayi Vijayan—and DMK leader M.K. Stalin expressed their concern and the displeasure over the Terms of Reference (ToR) of the 15th Finance Commission. Stalin argued that “certain elements of the ToR will affect the very fabric of equitable and just devolution of Central tax revenues to the states. It may not be an overstatement to suggest that the fiscal autonomy of many states could be reduced to that of municipalities due to ill-conceived ToR.”

Siddaramaiah and Naidu too supported him, and Stalin’s statement was seen as a smart political move to oppose the BJP in the Centre by way of voicing the state’s rights, falling in line with DMK’s rhetoric , “maanilathil suyatchi; mathiyil kootatchi”, meaning autonomy for states and federalism in the Centre.

Taking part in the conference, Tamil Nadu’s neighbor Puducherry expressed grief.

“There is a grave injustice to the best performing states. We are penalised, while the worst performing states are being rewarded. The PM always says about cooperative federalism, but it is actually a dictatorship. The states are suffering as the Centre is taking away the power of the states. Who are you to dictate us? We know the pulse of the people. We are designing the populist schemes by knowing the pulse of the people,” said Puducherry Chief Minister V. Narayanasamy, who holds the finance portfolio.

But, Tamil Nadu choosing to stay away has raised several eyebrows at this juncture. The deputy chief minister's act may not come as a surprise for those who have been watching the Tamil Nadu government and his political activities for the past one year after the death of his leader J. Jayalalithaa. In fact, the Tamil Nadu government chose not to express its opinion on the 15th Finance Commission’s ToR.

Tamil Nadu’s decision to stay away from the meeting may be a strategic move by the state to keep the Centre happy and to show that the state is not keen to take on the Modi government. Nonetheless, the irony is that the state will lose Rs.40,000 crore between 2020-21 and 2024-25 if the 2011 population census is used as a reference.“If the 2011 population census is used as a reference, Kerala will lose Rs.20,000 crore between 2020-21 and 2024-25, while Tamil Nadu will lose Rs.40,000 crore,” said Thomas Isaac.

It may be noted that states such as Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra will lose more funds, as the ToR of the 15th Finance Commission are devolved to the northern states at the cost of those in the south. According to the statistics available with the Centre, the population in south India went up just by 85 per cent, while in the BIMARU states in north India—Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh—had gone up by 144 per cent. To be more specific, the south got back only 52 paise compared to the Rs.3.25 got back by the north Indian states for every rupee they gave to the Centre.

Again, by skipping the conference, Tamil Nadu has lost its opportunity to register its voice against the Centre along with its southern counterparts. “The conclave provided a politically significant opportunity to project a collective voice against the Terms of References of the 15th Finance Commission which are prejudicial to Tamil Nadu. It is important for Tamil Nadu to work alongside southern states in this effort as we stand to lose the most. However, the present AIADMK dispensation refuses to take a stand against the Central government, be it in Cauvery or 15th Finance Commission. AIADMK continues to be more loyal to Modi government than other state BJP units,” said Manuraj Shanmuga Sundram, DMK spokesperson.

The conclave gains importance in the background that a fire has been lit against the 15th Finance Commission from the southern states, to say how they are victimised and robbed. Tamil Nadu, being one of the major contributing states with regard to tax and other benefits like power supply from NLC, will lose its rights. The meeting was convened as the finance ministers of the southern states realised the seriousness of the matter.

When it is true that the southern states have contributed to human index and other developmental issues, the recent Finance Commission has planned to reduce the share of the southern states by way of revenue allocation. This will cause major catastrophe and various welfare schemes may come to an end due to shortage of funds. The other alarming criteria is populist schemes should be abandoned or reduced. In fact, a state like Tamil Nadu has been standing tall only because of these populist schemes, and by way of contributing more for the welfare of the people. This would take a major beating if the ToR of the 15th Finance Commission is implemented. And as a responsible finance minister, Panneerselvam, say the political observers and economists in the state, should have understood this and voiced the concerns of the southern states in a united manner. By boycotting, Panneerselvam has chosen to ignore the welfare of the state for reasons better known to him and the government.

“At a time when the state is reeling under Rs.4 lakh crore debt, skipping this meeting is a very wrong move. But the reason is obvious. Fearing Narendra Modi, the government of Tamil Nadu has taken this decision. This shows both politically and administratively the Tamil Nadu government and the ruling AIADMK are nothing but chamchagiris of Narendra Modi,” said R. Mani, senior journalist.

In his column, former finance minister P Chidambaram wrote, “the Central government has lit a fire. It should be doused before the southern flames scorch the federation.” But the irony is that the Tamil Nadu government is trying hard to douse the fire by way of skipping the meet.