Blackburn holds slim lead over Bredesen in Tennessee US Senate race, new Reuters poll says

Joey Garrison | The Tennessean

Show Caption Hide Caption Tennessee U.S. Senate race polls: Phil Bredesen, Marsha Blackburn vie to replace Bob Corker A look at the several polls detailing the race of Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen for U.S. Senate

With early voting now underway, a new poll released by Reuters says Tennessee's U.S. Senate race is statistically tied, a welcome sign for Democratic nominee Phil Bredesen after a series of recent polls showed a widening lead for Republican Marsha Blackburn.

The survey, released Wednesday, found Blackburn, a conservative Williamson County congressman, has support from 47 percent of likely voters, topping Bredesen, former Tennessee governor, who is backed by 44 percent.

That puts the race within the poll's 3.4 percent margin of error.

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Six percent of respondents said they don't know who they will vote for, 3 percent said they back other candidates and the remaining said they won't vote.

Early voting begins Wednesday in a race that has drawn national attention and more than $30 million in outside spending. Election Day is Nov. 6.

Blackburn has 'slight edge' in competitive race

The poll, a sample of 1,108 likely voters from Oct. 4 to 11, was conducted by market research firm Ipsos Public Affairs on behalf of Thomson Reuters and the University of Virginia Center of Politics. It was conducted online using a population-based sample of Tennessee's likely voters.

"Blackburn does seem to have a slight edge, though it is still quite competitive," said Chris Jackson, vice president with Ipsos Public Affairs, adding that Blackburn has gotten a boost as the race nationalized in recent weeks.

Still, he said the state's Republican leanings — even in a year when some have predicted a "blue wave" in favor of Democrats — give Blackburn a slight edge. Those leanings are marked by Tennessee's continued support of President Donald Trump, the poll found.

"It's a close election. (But) I think it's an election in a state where the fundamentals give the Republican an advantage," Jackson said.

A tight race: Blackburn builds big 14-point lead in New York Times poll, but Bredesen campaign says race still tight

Recent polls have Blackburn expanding lead

The U.S. Senate debate between Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen in 3 minutes The U.S. Senate debate between Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen in 3 minutes

The poll's release comes after a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College last week had Blackburn up 14 percentage points over Bredesen, an outlier from results of other recent polls.

Still, Blackburn has consistently led polling this month: a CBS poll on Oct. 7 had Blackburn up 8 percentage points, a Fox News poll Oct. 3 had her up 5 percentage points, and even an average of Bredesen internal polls released by the campaign have showed her up 1 percentage point.

Bredesen, following a campaign event in Nashville Tuesday, said he thinks the race is a dead heat that depends on voter turnout.

“This is kind of where I always thought it would be,” he said, adding that he doesn’t put too much faith in polling. “I’m just doing the best job I can of presenting my brand, my approach to this job and we’ll see what people want.”

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The recent uptick for Blackburn has coincided with the aftermath of the Senate's heated confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which hardened partisan lines and appeared to galvanize Republicans in conservative states.

Bredesen has also faced heightened attacks via negative ads paid for by outside groups that have accounted for more than twice the spending to help Blackburn than Bredesen.

The new Reuters poll found more Tennesseans — 48 percent — don't believe sexual assault allegations made against Kavanaugh than the number who believe the accusations — 35 percent. According to the poll, 51 percent of likely voters in Tennessee supported his nomination and 39 percent opposed it.

In a break from his party, Bredesen said he supported Kavanaugh's nomination — but that hasn't stopped the Blackburn campaign from criticizing the months he withheld making a yes-or-no decision.

More Tennesseans want a senator who will support Trump than oppose

Bredesen's support of 44 percent of likely voters outperforms the generic performance of Democrats in Tennessee, who are backed by only 42 percent of Tennessee voters.

Bredesen holds a significant lead among independent voters, the poll found, 59 percent to 21 percent for Blackburn.

But in a clear boost for Blackburn — who has campaigned on advancing Trump's agenda — the Reuters poll found 51 percent of likely Tennessee voters either strongly approve or somewhat approve of Trump's job as president. That's compared to 45 percent who strongly disapprove or somewhat disapprove of his handling of his job.

The poll found 55 percent of likely voters are motivated to choose a candidate who will support Trump. Comparatively, 44 percent of voters said they are motivated to support a candidate who will oppose Trump.

More: Tennessee U.S. Senate race polls: Phil Bredesen, Marsha Blackburn vie to replace Bob Corker

Of the poll's respondents, 47 percent said the country is on the wrong track, compared to 46 percent who said it is moving in the right direction. Those are more positive right-direction marks than the national average.

The state of Tennessee was viewed more favorably, however, with 54 percent of likely Tennessee voters saying the state is headed in the right direction while 36 percent saying it is on the wrong track.

In terms of issues, Bredesen got higher marks by poll participants on health care and the environment while Blackburn was viewed as the better candidate on immigration, abortion, same sex marriage and the Supreme Court.

Bredesen and Blackburn were both viewed as the best candidate to address jobs and unemployment by 40 percent of likely voters, respectively.

Of the 1,108 likely voters polled, 386 identified as Democrats, 608 as Republicans, and 73 as independents.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.