Wall Street urges Hillary not to pick Warren

WALL STREET TO HILLARY: DON’T PICK WARREN — POLITICO’s Ben White: “Big Wall Street donors have a message for Hillary Clinton: Keep Elizabeth Warren off the ticket or risk losing millions of dollars in contributions. In a dozen interviews, major Democratic donors in the financial services industry said they saw little chance that Clinton would pick the liberal firebrand as her vice presidential nominee. These donors despise Warren’s attacks on the financial industry. But they also think her selection would be damaging to the economy.

And they warned that if Clinton surprises them and taps Warren, big donations from the industry could vanish. ‘If Clinton picked Warren, her whole base on Wall Street would leave her,’ said one top Democratic donor who has helped raise millions for Clinton. ‘They would literally just say, ‘We have no qualms with you moving left, we understand all the things you’ve had to do because of Bernie Sanders, but if you are going there with Warren, we just can’t trust you, you’ve killed it.’”


WORRIED ABOUT FIRST 100 DAYS — “Most big donors don’t want Warren on the ticket because she is the most accomplished anti-Wall Street populist in the Democratic Party. But many also think her presence would drive a potential Clinton administration too far to the left, poison relations with the private sector from the start and ultimately be damaging to the economy.

“A constant theme that emerged in the interviews is that executives in the financial industry believe the first 100 days of a Clinton administration could feature potential deal making with Republicans, who are likely to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives. The dream deal for Wall Street would be a combination of targeted infrastructure spending that appeals mostly to Democrats and corporate and international tax reform that could bring Republicans along. The fear is that Warren would make such a deal more difficult.” http://politi.co/28Ig8R9

BREXIT PREP: EU ON A KNIFE’S EDGE — Pantheon UK’s Samuel Tombs on Thursday’s vote: “The latest polls suggest that the result is finely balanced. There will not be an official exit poll, so the picture will emerge gradually during the night as 382 local counting centres declare results. Each centre will announce the number of ballot papers received, before counting votes for each side.

“If all goes to plan, about half of the counting centres will announce the verified number of ballot papers by 01:45 on June 24, giving an early indication of turnout. A high turnout should be good for remain. Meanwhile, half the counting areas are expected to declare results by 03:45. Urban areas will declare earlier than rural ones, so early results might overstate national support for remain. An official declaration of the U.K. result is expected ‘at breakfast time’, and the Prime Minister will talk from Downing Street shortly after.”

THE DAY AFTER — Mohamed A. El-Erian on Bloomberg View: "Here's what the world could look like on June 24 if the ‘Leave’ camp were to win … The foreign exchange markets are in turmoil, with the pound falling 7 percent to 10 percent and the euro down about 3 percent to 5 percent. Stocks also are under considerable pressure as investors try to price in greater institutional uncertainties and the coming hit to economic growth. Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his resignation, leaving his Conservative Party in disarray as it tries to figure out how to unite behind a new leader after a divisive debate in the months leading up to the referendum.

“Scotland is looking to resurrect its bid for independence. The Irish are wondering what will happen to the free transfer of goods and people between the republic and the north. The rest of Europe is stunned, and worried about a domino effect. Meanwhile, those who backed the U.K.'s exit from the European Union are trying to make sure their victory doesn't turn into defeat, especially as some parliamentarians look into procedural ways to bypass the Leave vote”

ASIA RISES AS BREXIT FEAR EASES A BIT — Reuters: “Asian stocks gained as some fears that Britain would vote to leave the European Union abated on Monday, boosting a recovery in both sterling and investors' taste for risk assets. … Three British opinion polls ahead of the EU membership referendum on June 23 showed the ‘Remain’ camp recovering some momentum, although the overall picture remained one of an evenly split electorate. …

“Global markets, buffeted this month by Brexit woes, had a breather at end of last week from a three-day suspension in British campaigning following the fatal attack on lawmaker Jo Cox, a strong supporter of Britain staying in the EU” http://goo.gl/YfR8hQ

CLINTON TO ATTACK TRUMP’S BUSINESS RECORD — WSJ’s Colleen McCain Nelson and Laura Meckler: “Democrat Hillary Clinton will target Donald Trump’s business record on Tuesday, casting the presumptive Republican nominee as self-interested and shady in an effort to undercut one of the central arguments of his campaign. … The former senator and secretary of state plans to deliver a pointed critique of her Republican rival’s economic policies and his work in the private sector, broadening her argument that Mr. Trump is temperamentally unfit for the White House, Clinton campaign advisers said.

“Tuesday’s address in Columbus, Ohio, will build on Mrs. Clinton’s recent foreign-policy speech in which she used a compilation of Mr. Trump’s own words to suggest that he is uninformed and even dangerous. ‘It really comes down to being able to show that every time Trump had an opportunity to get something for himself at the expense of someone else, he took it, in spades,’ said Jake Sullivan, the Clinton campaign’s policy chief.” http://goo.gl/6boEOw

NEW ERA FOR PLAYBOOK — Per email from POLITICO’s John Harris: “At the start of the year, it was evident that one of the publication’s big tasks for 2016 would be to identify and help launch the next generation of POLITICO Playbook. … We have found the team who is ready for this job. The inheritors of this wonderful franchise created more than nine years ago by the incomparable Mike Allen are two of our newsroom’s very best, Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman.

“Their rise into this job is a terrific POLITICO story, since these two friends and collaborators effectively grew up together, in a professional sense, in our newsroom. … They will be joined by a friendly face, Daniel Lippman, who will be a force multiplier for Jake and Anna just as he was for Mike”

GOOD MONDAY MORNING — Cleveland Rocks! What a Game 7 for the ages last night. If you missed it, well I’m sorry for you. Email me your thoughts on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Cleveland Plain Dealer post-game headline: THE CURSE IS OVER. http://goo.gl/jziCVR

PLAIN DEALER PRINT headline: “Believe It! The Cavaliers are NBA Champions.” https://goo.gl/o5NlM3

SUMMER BEGINS! — Via Mike Allen: “SUMMER officially begins with the solstice [TODAY] at 6:34 p.m. ET.

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES –Patrick Temple-West on what's next now that the SEC has approved IEX's bid to become a stock exchange -- and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. -- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].

DRIVING THE WEEK — U.K. votes Thursday on whether to say in the EU. A win for the Leave side could send markets reeling and throw an unexpected wild card into to the presidential race … President Obama on Monday delivers remarks at the SelectUSA Investment Summit at the Washington Hilton … Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Senate Banking at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday and before House Financial Services at 10:00 a.m. Wednesday … Senate Banking has its bank capital hearing Thursday at 10:00 a.m. … House Financial Services has a terrorism financing hearing at 10:00 a.m. Thursday …

TIME TO RETHINK TRADE DEALS? — Paul Blustein in POLITICO Magazine: “It is time for what the Japanese call hansei (reflection over one’s mistakes) among the Davos crowd — the corporate chieftains, business lobbyists, policy wonks and journalists who sold Washington and other world capitals on the glories of free-trade deals … Of all the messages emanating from the American electorate in the 2016 campaign, popular hostility toward trade agreements is one of the most resounding. It is also perhaps the only grievance that unites left and right. …

“Paradoxically, the upshot could be a blessing in disguise for international trade — if trade negotiators adjust accordingly and focus on what’s important, which is preserving the overall system. That means strengthening rules at the global level that keep the world safe from rampant protectionism, rather than constantly seeking to eliminate more impediments to the movement of goods and services across borders” http://goo.gl/ASljrP

EUROPE TO PUNISH U.K. IF IT LEAVES — NYT’s Steven Erlanger: “The rest of the European Union nations are looking at the possibility of a British departure from the bloc with disbelief, trepidation and anguish. But they are also preparing to retaliate. If Britons do vote in a referendum on Thursday to leave the European Union, they can expect a tough and unforgiving response, with capitals across the Continent intent on deterring other countries from following the British example, European officials and analysts said. In other words, Britain will be made to suffer for its choice. With other issues pressing, including Greek debt, the migrant crisis and terrorism, the largest and most powerful European nations will want clarity, and are not likely to tolerate a long period of post-referendum confusion. …

“Preparing for a British vote to withdraw, France and Germany are debating the immediate announcement of a joint initiative on European security, perhaps an operational command headquarters, to show, at least symbolically, that the European Union remains solid and will continue to progress without Britain. … Suggestions by British politicians favoring a departure that the rest of the European Union will give Britain more favorable terms in a new trading arrangement will be rejected out of hand by European leaders” http://goo.gl/PqDRjA

VENEZUELA IN CRISIS — FT’s Lucy Hornby in Beijing and Andres Schipani in Medellín: “China is renegotiating billions of dollars of loans to Venezuela and has met with the country’s political opposition, marking a shift in its approach to a nation it once viewed as a US counterweight in the Americas. … Venezuela is facing one of the worst crises of its 200-year history, with a collapsing economy and political deadlock stoked by the oil price slump. China, which is Caracas’s biggest creditor and has loaned the country $65bn since 2005, has already extended the repayment schedules for debts backed by oil sales.

“Beijing has also sent unofficial envoys to hold talks with Venezuela’s opposition, in the hope that if President Nicolás Maduro falls his successors will honour Chinese debts … Its recognition of Mr Maduro’s fragile position and the rising clout of the opposition, led by Henrique Capriles, is another sign that the diplomatic noose is tightening around Caracas’s socialist government” http://goo.gl/MbkcjO

FOOD RIOTS — NYT’s Nicholas Casey: “With delivery trucks under constant attack, the nation’s food is now transported under armed guard. Soldiers stand watch over bakeries. The police fire rubber bullets at desperate mobs storming grocery stores, pharmacies and butcher shops. A 4-year-old girl was shot to death as street gangs fought over food. … Venezuela is convulsing from hunger.

“Hundreds of people here in the city of Cumaná, home to one of the region’s independence heroes, marched on a supermarket in recent days, screaming for food. They forced open a large metal gate and poured inside. They snatched water, flour, cornmeal, salt, sugar, potatoes, anything they could find, leaving behind only broken freezers and overturned shelves. And they showed that even in a country with the largest oil reserves in the world, it is possible for people to riot because there is not enough food.” http://goo.gl/9lC3cQ

WHY BRITS WANT TO LEAVE — WP’s Griff Witte: “[I]f the pro-E.U. forces are able to stop Brexit, as the U.K. departure is popularly known, it will not be for any love of Europe among the people of Britain. To Britons, Europe remains a place apart — a landmass off in the hazy distance where invasions are hatched, crises are brewing and bureaucracy is born. Even here in Dover, where France is visible on a clear day and the shops accept euros from the day-tripping tourists, there’s no sense of shared identity with the continentals. …

“That lack of emotional attachment to Europe — and indeed the hostility that some feel — helps explain why the country’s citizens might be eager to leave even amid the overwhelming consensus of experts that a departure could be economically, politically and strategically disastrous. It also underscores why the campaign to keep Britain in the E.U. has been so relentlessly negative.” https://goo.gl/qMCH2w

TRUMP WANTS TO TAKE KEYSTONE PROFITS — POLITICO’s Elana Schor: “Donald Trump's vow to resuscitate the Keystone XL oil pipeline in exchange for a share of its profits has a glaring problem: It risks running afoul of laws against government takings of private property. And even supporters of the project warn that it risks hurting relations with Canada, the nation's No. 1 oil supplier.

“That proposal may mesh with Trump’s famous fondness for the “art of the deal,” but it’s not what GOP lawmakers called for in their multiple attempts to approve Keystone over President Barack Obama's resistance. They simply wanted to grant developer TransCanada’s permit request, without making any cash grabs, just as regulators routinely do for countless other energy projects” http://goo.gl/7f983X

JUSTICE EYES ANTHEM DEAL — WSJ’s Liz Hoffman, Brent Kendall and Anna Wilde Mathews: “U.S. antitrust regulators have privately expressed concerns about Anthem Inc.’s $48 billion proposed acquisition of Cigna Corp., and are skeptical that the health insurers can offer concessions that would fully preserve competition in the industry … Company representatives met June 10 in Washington with Justice Department staffers and representatives of more than a dozen state attorneys general …

“At the meeting, government officials outlined their worries about combining two of the nation’s top health insurers … Merging companies sometimes can win government approval by offering to sell assets or agreeing to other restrictions on their operations, but government staffers told the companies they weren’t optimistic Anthem and Cigna could offer satisfactory fixes … [T]he department hasn't yet made a decision on whether to sue to block the deal” http://goo.gl/F8WNdy

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR —

FDI REPORT — The Organization for International Investment (OFII) is putting out a report Monday ahead of the Commerce Dept.'s SelectUSA Summit. Per release: “As this new data show, global investment supports more than 24 million U.S. workers. While there is certainly growth generated in economic hot-spots like Silicon Valley, the locations where global investment is having the biggest impact on U.S. workers are in states like North Carolina, Indiana, New Jersey, Michigan and Kansas.” http://goo.gl/urfhFC

NEW THIS A.M.: ECON POLL — Per a USA Today/Wells Fargo poll out overnight: “One third of Americans feel positive about real economy conditions in their local communities, and believe their local economies are doing better than the overall US economy. About 43 percent of respondents rate their local economic conditions as good and many also perceive the economy as stable. A majority of Americans feel very good/good (46 percent) about their current personal financial situation, and 43 percent expect their personal financial situation to get better over the course of the next year”

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