Reds seek optimism entering season's second half

Now that the euphoria of the All-Star Game is behind them, the Reds return to the regularly scheduled portion of their season.

Let's just say there doesn't appear to be a lot of euphoria in the coming episodes.

When we last left the Reds, they had lost two straight to the Miami Marlins by the combined score of 22-5. The final loss before the break featured a cooler-tipping tantrum by ace Johnny Cueto. The game was followed by team meeting.

There were rampant rumors at the All-Star Game that manager Bryan Price would be replaced by Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, maybe as soon as Wednesday.

Team owner Bob Castellini shot those rumors down to the Enquirer's Paul Daugherty. Price remains the manager, but you've got to think changes are coming as far as players.

The question now seems to be just how far the changes will go.

Cueto is a free agent after this season. He is the No. 1 trade commodity. Mike Leake, Manny Parra and Brayan Pena are free agents as well after this season.

Aroldis Chapman is a free agent after 2016. That is true of Marlon Byrd as well. Jay Bruce is signed for 2016 with an option for 2017.

Todd Frazier, the star of the All-Star experience, is controlled two more years as well. Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has said he will not trade Frazier, but you have to think all of the others are on the block.

"The thing that makes it tough for the Reds is the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs are all going to be really good for at least a few years," said former Red turned ESPN analyst Aaron Boone. "The Reds can't just be pretty good and hope to contend."

Trading Cueto, Chapman, Leake and Bruce would bring a haul of prospects to infuse some talent into the upper reaches of the farm system, where the Reds are thin - especially on the offensive side.

Free agent players tend to have less value these days than they did in the past because, under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the team that trades for them no longer gets draft-pick compensation if they leave as free agents.

Jim Bowden, the former Reds' general manager now an analyst on XM Radio and ESPN, think Cueto is a special case.

"They're not going to sign Johnny Cueto," Bowden said. "You've got to take the best deal you can possibly get when you can. He's healthy. He's pitching great. You're never going to get a higher value. Every time he goes out there's risk. The sooner you get the right deal, you've got to go.

"I think they're going to do better than everyone else thinks. Even though he's a rental, he's the only one out there who can pitch Game 1 and Game 7. I think someone is going to pay the price. It might only be one team. But somebody's going to pay the price and the Reds are going to do really well.

"I'd say the same thing with the other free agents."

Bowden and a lot of baseball people think the time to move Chapman is now. Because he is not a free agent, his value is much greater.

"You've got to go out and see what's there because you don't want to be in the same boat (as you are with Cueto) a year from now," Bowden said. "(Chapman) you control. We saw what (Jeff) Samardzija brought last year with (Addison) Russell and (Billy) McKinney."

The Cubs got infielder Russell, the No. 3 prospect overall on Baseball America's list, and outfielder McKinney, No. 83 on BA's list, for Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

"And you listen on everybody else," Bowden said.

The Reds' ability to rebuild is limited by the contracts on the books to players like Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips and Devin Mesoraco.

The club is committed to $82 million in payroll next season and $66.5 million the following year.

A fire sale will likely make for a long summer. The Reds are 39-47 with Cueto and Leake in the rotation. They would be replaced by rookies most likely giving the Reds a rotation where Anthony DeSclafani, a player in his second full year in the majors, is the most experienced starter.

The players know changes are coming.

"We've just got to keep winning series," Frazier said. "We can't be thinking about what's going to happen or anything else. We've got to worry about that day. We've got to worry about Friday. When the next day comes, we'll worry about that. But we've still got some fireworks left. Hopefully, we'll show it here in the second half."