(CNN) We may well be in the midst of a landmark moment in the long and controversial history of the politics of guns in America.

The murders of 17 people at a high school in Parkland, Florida, eight days ago -- and the subsequent pop-up activism of their surviving classmates -- has, at least in the near-term, changed the all-too-predictable blueprint of how the country reacts in the wake of a mass shooting.

And yet, the path to passage through Congress of anything beyond a small-bore gun control measure remains very rocky.

The reason for that is simple: Republicans -- and some Democrats -- believe/know that if they cross the National Rifle Association on the organization's priorities, there will be a political price to pay.

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