1Q Fundraising

Be sure to keep our Senate fundraising roundup handy, since we update that as new numbers come in. As per usual, we'll have a House roundup after reports are due at the FEC on April 15.

● AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D): $2.5 million raised, $6.7 million cash-on-hand

● PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc): $2.2 million raised, $10 million cash-on-hand

● SC-Gov: Kevin Bryant (R): $22,000 raised, $183,000 cash-on-hand; Yancey McGill (R): $8,000 raised, $400 cash-on-hand

● AZ-09: Greg Stanton (D): $500,000 raised, $850,000 cash-on-hand

● CA-10: Josh Harder (D): $350,000 raised, $800,000 cash-on-hand

● CA-25: Katie Hill (D): $400,000 raised, $500,000 cash-on-hand

● FL-12: Chris Hunter (D): $242,000 raised

● KS-03: Sharice Davids (D): $125,000 raised, $100,000 cash-on-hand; Brent Welder (D): $240,000 raised, $340,000 cash-on-hand

● KY-06: Jim Gray (D): $793,000 raised, $825,000 cash-on-hand

● MN-02: Angie Craig (D): $520,000 raised, $740,000 cash-on-hand

● NY-19: Antonio Delgado (D): $460,000 raised; Gareth Rhodes (D): $240,000 raised, $700,000 cash-on-hand

● PA-10: Eric Ding (D): $170,000 raised (in one month)

Senate

● MS-Sen-B: Former Democratic Rep. Mike Espy, who went on to serve as Bill Clinton's secretary of agriculture, confirmed on Friday that he would run in the November special election. Espy said back in March that it was his "strong intention to run," but he didn't make it official until now.

Meanwhile, Lee County Democratic Party Chairman Jamie Franks, a former state representative, has announced that he will not run in this special election. Franks said late last month that he wouldn't run against Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton, who kicked off his own bid a few days later.

● OH-Sen: A new analysis from USA Today suggests that Republican Rep. Jim Renacci may have engaged in a so-called "straw donor" scheme to funnel money from his House campaign account to his gubernatorial campaign fund, prior to dropping his bid for governor and switching to Ohio's Senate race in January. Under state law, Renacci was only permitted to directly transfer $13,000 from his House committee to his gubernatorial committee, which he did last June. That, however, still left some $300,000 stuck in his House account.

As USA Today observes, though, Renacci also donated money from his federal account to a number of Republican House colleagues around the nation, eight of whom then made comparable donations (totaling $26,700) to Renacci's gubernatorial campaign "within weeks or even days of Renacci's initial contribution." Renacci denies any such agreement, though ethics experts suggested that such an arrangement could violate Ohio's ban on straw donations. However, those same experts also agree that proving such a scheme would be almost impossible.

Oddly, this isn't the first time Renacci's name has gotten caught up in a story like this. In 2012, wealthy businessman Ben Suarez was accused of using his employees as straw donors to direct $200,000 in campaign contributions to Renacci, who was seeking re-election at the time, and Republican Josh Mandel, who was running for Senate that year (and in fact was the candidate Renacci replaced earlier this year when he swapped races). At a jury trial in 2014, Suarez was ultimately found not guilty of violating campaign finance laws, but he did receive a 15-month prison sentence for tampering with a witness in the case.

● TN-Sen: Candidate filing closed Thursday for Tennessee's Aug. 2 primaries, and the state has a list of contenders here. The Volunteer State is the only state that holds primaries on a Thursday: It's been on Thursday since the state's first constitution was drafted in 1796, and no one knows why. Note also that unlike in most other Southern states, there is no runoff here except in the special election for mayor of Nashville, which we'll be discussing below.

Rep. Marsha Blackburn already looked like the clear GOP primary frontrunner before this weekend, but she’s all but certain to be the nominee now that wealthy businessman Darrell Lynn has been removed from the ballot by the state party. That move came because last year, the party voted to change their bylaws to require that all primary candidates meet their “bona fide” standards. Anyone who wanted the GOP nomination needed to have voted in three of the last four federal or statewide primaries, and they also needed to be active members of the party. On Saturday, the state party leadership voted that Lynn and six other Senate candidates didn’t meet this bona fide standard: Lynn said hours later that he accepted the decision.

While Lynn didn’t seem to have many influential allies, he had previously bragged that he can spend at least $5 million of his own money for his campaign and recently suggested he could double that investment. So while he always seemed like a longshot against Blackburn, she’ll at least be relieved that she won’t need to worry about him being a distraction. Rolando Toyos, an opthalmologist whom we’d previously mentioned, was also ejected, but he didn’t seem to have the money to mount a serious bid anyway. Blackburn now has just two primary foes, both of who appear to be just Some Dudes.

Donald Trump carried Tennessee 61-35, but Democrats were excited when they recruited former Gov. Phil Bredesen. Bredesen, who faces no serious primary opposition, won re-election as governor 69-30 in 2006, a contest where he carried every single county in the state. There haven't been many polls, but most of the numbers we've seen show Bredesen competitive with, if not outright leading, Blackburn. However, Republicans haven't started airing ads against him yet, and his big task will be to remain popular while Team Red connections him to the national Democrats most Tennessee voters have turned against.

● WI-Sen: WPA Intelligence takes another look at the August GOP primary for businessman Kevin Nicholson and gives him a 45-27 lead over state Sen. Leah Vukmir. Back in December, Nicholson released another WPA survey that gave him a smaller 30-23 edge in the contest to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Vukmir and her allies have not released contradictory data.

Nicholson has benefited from millions of dollars' worth of ads from a group funded by billionaire Richard Uihlein, while the John Bolton Super PAC (which presumably will need a new name soon) has also spent heavily for him. But Vukmir also has a billionaire ally in Diane Hendricks, and the Hendricks-financed Wisconsin Next PAC has now launched an opening $575,000 TV buy.

The ad invokes the 2011 protests against GOP Gov. Scott Walker's anti-labor law as the narrator declares how Vukmir and Walker refused to be intimidated by "union thugs." She praises Vukmir for having "led the fight and passed Walker's bold plans to rein in the unions," and touts how Walker called her "a great leader." The governor has not taken sides in the primary, but his wife and son both support Vukmir.

Gubernatorial

● CA-Gov: Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis has endorsed Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom ahead of the June 5 top-two primary. Solis previously served in the higher-profile position of U.S. labor secretary under Obama, and while one might think being a county legislator would make her relatively obscure in such a large state, each Los Angeles County supervisor district actually covers a hefty 2 million people, which is three times the size of a congressional district.

● CO-Gov: Wealthy former state Rep. Victor Mitchell is up with a new spot as part of his overall opening $1 million ad buy ahead of the June GOP primary. Mitchell tells the audience to look at California as an example of what happens "when you put career politicians in charge."

As headlines pass saying the Golden State's crime and traffic are bad, Mitchell says that they also "have the worst quality of life in American, the highest income taxes, mountains of crushing regulations, [and] lawless sanctuary cities." He pledges not to let career politicians turn Colorado into the new California, and implores the audience to check out his website.

● CT-Gov: The Waterbury Observer reports that Republican Jim Smith, who recently retired as CEO of Webster Bank, will announce a campaign in the week of April 9. Smith confirmed his interest in the race to Hartfordbusiness.com, though he said was still "rapidly completing a serious analysis of what it would take to win the nomination and the ensuing election," and would decide soon.

Smith's old company, which was started by his father, has $25 billion in assets, so he may have the wealth or connections to raise a serious amount of money. Smith also recently led the Commission on Fiscal Stability and Economic Growth, an independent group of business executives that made recommendations to the legislature about how to fix the state's budget.

But neither party has embraced their proposals to reduce income taxes while raising sales taxes, reduce annual operating expenses by $1 billion, put tolls in place, and end collective bargaining for benefits; Smith's would-be primary rivals also used a recent debate to bash the Commission's ideas. Smith's own Republican bona fides also aren't very strong, since he only switched his party registration last month from the Independence Party to the GOP.

● GA-Gov: Former state Rep. Stacey Evans is out with her first ad ahead of the Democratic primary. The spot features Evans detailing how she grew up in poverty in Appalachian Georgia, but because of Georgia's HOPE scholarship, she was the first in her family to go to college. Evans says she "led the fight" in the state legislature to restore funding for the HOPE scholarship after Republicans cut it in 2011.

● MI-Gov: In a stark violation of the First Law of Campaign Advertising, the opening seconds of Lt. Gov. Brian Calley's newest TV ad repeat an attack that allies of his GOP primary opponent, state Attorney General Bill Schuette, lodged against him in a recent spot of their own. An incredulous narrator asks, "Bill Schuette's comparing Brian Calley to Jennifer Granholm?"—as in, Michigan's last Democratic governor. Why Calley would want to remind viewers of this accusation is beyond comprehension (he even features a photo of Granholm!), though at least he didn't reiterate the claim made by Schuette's super PAC that he was instrumental in helping Granholm pass a tax hike.

Calley's ad then tries to show why that comparison is bunk, noting that term-limited Gov. Rick Snyder has endorsed Calley (how could he not?) while claiming that Calley "created over 500,000 jobs" with Snyder. Finally, the narrator pivots to attacking Schuette, calling him a "trust-fund baby who's also gonna pocket four government pensions," has "never really had a real job," and "has been running for office since 1984."

● TN-Gov: GOP Gov. Bill Haslam is termed-out, and four noteworthy Republicans are competing to succeed him. (And so is Basil Marceaux, one of 2010's favorite Some Dude candidates.) Rep. Diane Black, the former House budget chair, and businessman Randy Boyd, a former Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, have led in the few polls we've seen. But state House Speaker Beth Harwell and former Higher Education Commission member Bill Lee are also both well-funded and have the resources to get their names out.

If Harwell or Lee do pick up support, Boyd could end up as the beneficiary. Black and Harwell both represent seats in Middle Tennessee, while Lee built his business in the region and has stared in local ads for the company for years (and didn't actually stop appearing in those spots for the Lee Company after he entered the race). But Boyd is one major candidate from historically red East Tennessee (the Knoxville Zoo's Asian animal habitat is named for him and his wife), so his best path to victory may be doing well at home while the Middle Tennessee vote is split. But one wild card is West Tennessee, which doesn't have a credible local candidate on the GOP primary ballot.

Democrats also have a competitive race. Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean had a $1.8 million to $682,000 cash-on-hand lead over state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh as of mid-January, and he likely begins the race with far more name recognition. However, Dean also has made some enemies during his time as mayor of what is now the state's largest city. Dean, who has characterized himself as "unabashedly pro-business" and praised Haslam a "very good governor," did not have a good relationship with labor. Fitzhugh, who hails from a rural West Tennessee legislative district, has aligned himself more with traditional Democratic groups like unions.

House

● CA-44: On Thursday, Compton Mayor Aja Brown announced that she was dropping her surprise bid against Rep. and fellow Democrat Nanette Barragan, though her name will still be on the June ballot. Brown said she was exiting the race because she was pregnant; her decision also came shortly after the state controller's office released an audit that was deeply critical of the city's financial management. Barragan now faces no serious opposition in this safely blue seat.

P.S. Actress Stacey Dash also recently ended her GOP campaign, though her name will also stay on the ballot. Thankfully, this means we'll be spared a lot of bad "Clueless" and "Straight Outta Compton" jokes this year.

● IA-03: EMILY's List has endorsed businesswoman Cindy Axne in the three-way June Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Young. Axne became the only woman in the contest after businesswoman Theresa Greenfield failed to make the ballot. Axe faces insurance company owner Eddie Mauro, who hails from a prominent family in South Side Des Moines, and longtime political consultant Pete D'Alessandro, who has the support of Bernie Sanders.

● KY-06: Lexington Mayor Jim Gray is out with a month-old poll from The Mellman Group of the May 22 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Andy Barr. They give Gray, who represents the district's largest city and was the 2016 Senate nominee, a huge 52-19 lead over retired combat pilot Amy McGrath, while state Sen. Reggie Thomas takes 6. Gray and McGrath, who are both very well-funded, have each started airing ads in the weeks since this poll was conducted.

● MI-11: Democratic state Rep. Tim Greimel has picked up endorsements from four more labor groups, including the state SEIU, for the August primary for this competitive open seat.

● NY-24: Juanita Perez Williams, the former top attorney for the city of Syracuse, has officially jumped into the Democratic primary for New York's 24th Congressional District following recent widespread reports that she would do so. Perez Williams' entry into the race sets up a primary battle with Syracuse University professor Dana Balter, who had previously earned the endorsements of all four local county Democratic Parties but has had trouble raising money. The winner will take on GOP Rep. John Katko in this 49-45 Clinton seat.

● NY-25: Former TV journalist Rachel Barnhart says she has gathered enough signatures to make the Democratic primary ballot to replace the late Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter, but she has yet to decide whether she'll actually run. Barnhart has said she'll make an announcement about running in the next few days, but it seems quite likely that she'll jump into the primary for this safely blue Rochester seat.

● PA-06: While there has been some talk that local Republican leaders could try to run a write-in candidate in the May primary, Chester County and Pennsylvania GOP Chairman Val DiGiorgio recently told the Philadelphia Inquirer that they were supporting little-known attorney Greg McCauley "enthusiastically and wholeheartedly." DiGiorgio added that county GOP wanted to make sure they vetted McCauley.

This suburban Philadelphia seat became open at the end of March when GOP Rep. Ryan Costello announced he would retire after the filing deadline. This left McCauley, who was running a low-profile primary challenge against Costello, as the only Republican on the ballot. Unless McCauley proves to be a considerably stronger candidate than anyone expects, it's extremely hard to see Team Red beating businesswoman and Air Force veteran Chrissy Houlahan in the general election for this 53-43 Clinton seat.

● PA-13: Dermatologist John Joyce is up with what we believe is the first TV ad in the very crowded May 15 primary for this safely red rural seat. The spot stars the candidate's wife arguing that Joyce is a guy who keeps his word and will "protect Social Security and Medicare" (now that's something we haven't heard in a GOP ad in a while!). Joyce is then shown treating patients as he pledges to fight for "you, not the special interests."

● TN-02: Longtime GOP Rep. Jimmy Duncan decided to retire last year, and the Office of Congressional Ethics recently announced that he may have inappropriately used at least $100,000 in campaign donations. Duncan was elected to succeed his late father, so for the first time since 1965, this area won't be represented by a Duncan.

However, a much longer-streak is all but certain to continue. The last time a Knox County-based House seat elected a Democrat was in 1852, before the Republican Party was even formed. In fact, this seat has had a congressman from the nativist Know Nothing Party more recently than that! Team Red isn't worried about losing this 65-30 Trump seat anytime soon.

Eight Republicans are running, but only three of them look like they'll have the resources to mount a serious bid. Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett, who was preparing to challenge Duncan before he retired, likely starts out with plenty of name recognition: A little more than 60 percent of this seat is in Burchett's Knox County and the entire district is in the Knoxville media market.

Burchett won re-election in 2014 with no opposition, but he drew some unpleasant headlines in December when Knoxnews.com reported that the FBI was asking them questions about Burchett "about issues ranging from possible tax evasion to potential bribery and a county contract." There don't appear to have been any public developments since then, but if this story remerges before August, Burchett could have some trouble. The other two candidates to watch are businessman and Young Republicans National Federation chairman Jason Emert and state Rep. Jimmy Matlock, both of whom did some self-funding in 2017.

● TN-04: GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais' only primary opponent in this 69-27 Trump seat had exactly zero cents in the bank at the end of 2017, so for once, he has nothing to worry about. That's a big change from four years ago, when he looked completely doomed after voters learned that while he was a practicing physician, he had engaged in affairs with several of his patients and tried to convince one to get an abortion. But DesJarlais pulled off a miraculous 38-vote win and turned back another well-funded challenge 52-43 last year, and enough voters seem to have forgiven and forgotten about his transgressions that no one of any stature is taking him on this time.

● TN-06: GOP Rep. Diane Black is leaving this 73-24 Trump Middle Tennessee seat, which includes part of the Nashville suburbs and more rural areas, and Team Red should have little trouble keeping it. Six Republicans filed to run, but only three of them look credible.

Businessman John Rose, who among other things has helped operate the Tennessee State Fair over the last few years and served as the appointed agriculture commissioner in 2002, has been doing some serious self-funding, but he's also taken in plenty of cash from donors. State Rep. Judd Matheny has had a much tougher time raising money. Matheny, who said he was willing to run here even if Black sought re-election, is probably best known for trying to ban the practice of Islamic religious law in Tennessee in 2011, and for driving his car in to a flower shop in 2014. Matheny, who did not injure anyone in the latter incident, said that his dog had jumped into the front seat, and he tried to brake but mistakenly instead hit the gas.

Former Chancery Court Judge Bob Corlew, an Army veteran and past president of the well-known service organization Lions Club International, entered the race in January, months after his two main rivals. But Corlew is better known for his involvement in a 2010 lawsuit that generated international attention. When members of the local Muslim community sought to build a new Islamic center in the city of Murfreesboro (which is located in the neighboring 4th District), a group sued the Rutherford County planning commissioners who had approved it.

The suit argued that those behind the center hadn't given the public enough notice before their plan was approved, but there was little question that those seeking to block the center were motivated by Islamophobia. Corlew accepted the argument of the center's opponents, but he was later overruled by higher state courts. The center ultimately did get built in 2012, though it was repeatedly the target of vandals and arsonists for years, from the moment ground was first broken.

● TN-07: Sometimes, good things happen to bad people. State Sen. Mark Green is running to succeed Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn in this 68-28 Trump Middle Tennessee seat, and he faces no GOP primary opposition whatsoever.

Green made national news last year when he was nominated by Donald Trump to serve as secretary of the Army, but he had to withdraw after too many senators objected to his Islamophobic and transphobic history. And it is a long history: Just last year, Green told a group of tea partiers that he "will not tolerate" teaching the "pillars of Islam" in textbooks, and he told a man who raised fears of armed violence from people who "don't belong here, like Muslims in the United States" that he'd asked a "great question."

In the legislature, Green also sponsored a bill that would have allowed healthcare practitioners to refuse treatment to LGBT patients, and he pushed a measure to force transgender students to use the school bathroom matching their legal gender, explaining he had a responsibility to "crush evil."

However, while Green didn't get to lead the Army, his failed nomination only elevated his profile at home. Green had dropped out of the governor's race to accept Trump's appointment, and while he decided not to get back in, he thought about challenging Sen. Bob Corker in the primary. But after Corker retired and Blackburn jumped in, Green ran here and secured the support of the anti-tax Club for Growth. A few other Republicans talked about running, but when the dust settled, Green had the field to himself.

● TN-08: Last cycle, David Kustoff won a crowded a 13-way GOP primary 27-23 against former Shelby County commissioner George Flinn, a wealthy radiologist and perennial candidate, and at some point, Flinn decided to seek a rematch. But while Flinn seems to have no qualms about spending loads of his own money on failed campaign after campaign, it's tough to see him beating Kustoff, who doesn't seem to have made any enemies in this 66-31 Trump West Tennessee seat.

● TX-21: The legendarily awful Rep. Louie Gohmert has endorsed Chip Roy, a former chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz, in the May 22 GOP primary runoff. Roy faces perennial candidate Matt McCall, whom he outpaced 27-17 in the first round in March.

Mayoral

● Nashville, TN Mayor: Megan Barry resigned as mayor in March as part of a plea deal for felony theft related to an affair with the former head of her security detail, and a nonpartisan special election for the final year of her term has been set for Aug. 2; if no one takes a majority, there will be a September runoff. Vice Mayor David Briley, who like Barry is a Democrat, took over as acting mayor, and he quickly announced he would run in the special. Briley, who identifies as a progressive, also has the support of the influential Nashville Business Coalition, which did not support him during his failed 2007 bid.

Thirteen other candidates filed to run here, and this is a tough field to handicap. The only other current elected officials are state Rep. Harold Love and At-large Councilwoman Erica Gilmore, whom The Tennessee's Joey Garrison describes as "among the city's top African-American political leaders." Also in the race are retired conservative radio host Ralph Bristol; businessman Roy Dale, a conservative who left the Council in 1999 and says he's not sure if he'll stay in the race; Carol Swain, a conservative former Vanderbilt University law professor and CNN talking head; and local NAACP leader Ludye Wallace, who left the Council in 1995 and is currently suing to move the election to May but also says he's not sure if he'll stay in.

Grab Bag

● Deaths: Inveterate Congress watchers probably know Democrat Daniel Akaka best for being the alphabetically first Senator for decades; every roll call would begin with "Mr. Akaka ..." Akaka, who died on Thursday at the age of 93, was a workhorse Senator during his 23 years of Senate membership (from 1990 to 2013), not seeking the spotlight but working diligently on Hawaiian causes and veteran's issues. Akaka, who served during World War II in the Corps of Engineers, was the Veterans' Affairs committee chair from 2007 to 2011.

Akaka's best-known piece of legislation, however, never saw passage after years of trying. The "Akaka Bill" proposed federal recognition for Native Hawaiians, in a manner similar to an Indian tribe; he was, however, able to secure funding for new Native Hawaiian education and health programs. Akaka, who is of Hawaiian and Chinese ancestry, is the only Native Hawaiian to have served in the Senate.

Despite his long service in Congress (23 years in the Senate, and 13 years in HI-02 before that), Akaka came rather late in life to politics, first winning office in his 50s. He spent much of his early adulthood as a teacher and then principal, and then he worked in appointed state and federal government positions on education policy before successfully running for the House in 1976.

Akaka was appointed to the Senate in 1990 upon the death of Spark Matsunaga, then he faced a special election later in 1990 where he narrowly defeated Republican Rep. Pat Saiki. However, he was easily re-elected three more times after that. Despite his lengthy tenure, he was Hawaii's senior senator for less than a month, in the period between Dan Inouye's death and his own planned retirement.