But local pols say that when Hogan attempts to become the state’s first Republican governor to win reelection since 1954, he won’t be able to keep dodging questions—which will put him at risk of alienating either his base or the independents he won over in 2014. “When he hits the campaign trail, it’s going to be very different,” said Rich Madaleno, a Democratic state senator running for the party’s nomination. “There will be debates, candidate forums, other events. He’s going to have to start answering questions.” (He will also face harsher criticism than he did earlier in his term, when he was fighting cancer.)

Hogan’s tenuous grip on power is reflected in the same polls often cited to describe his invulnerability. A Washington Post survey in March found that 65 percent of Marylanders approve of his job performance, and yet, only 39 percent said they would back his re-election. Moreover, he’s already taken a hit since Trump took office: His job-approval rating has fallen six points since September 2016. One likely reason was his refusal to take a stand on Trump’s travel ban: 74 percent of Marylanders thought it “absolutely necessary” their governor speak out against the proposal. Hogan also wouldn’t let Attorney General Brian Frosh sue the administration over it, so the General Assembly passed a joint resolution granting Frosh that authority.

Beyond the Trump effect, Hogan has another headwind to navigate in 2018: the fundamentals of the state’s electorate. Hogan’s upset victory three years ago was due, in part, to Maryland’s historically low voter turnout. There was an 11 percent overall drop from the 2010 gubernatorial election, and just 46 percent of registered Democrats voted—an eight percent decrease from 2010. That’s unlikely to repeat next year, according to John Willis, a University of Baltimore politics professor and Maryland’s secretary of state from 1995-2003. The most dramatic decreases in voting in 2014 came in large Democratic strongholds like Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. “These are precisely the parts of the state where people are most galvanized by what’s going on in Washington,” Willis said. “There are a lot of reasons why they won’t stay home this time.”

Midterm elections usually benefit the party that doesn’t hold the White House, and Trump is likely to spur higher turnout among Democrats. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1, that can make all the difference. When Hogan won in 2014, for instance, he received 32,000 fewer votes than the total number of Democrats who voted in Maryland’s 2016 primary. If Democrats show up next year, the math won’t be there for him.