Good morning and welcome to my weekly weather report on the immediate past, present and future of weather in the Bayou City.

PAST

Houston’s had a really consistent run of cold weather during the last three-and-a-half months.

We can pinpoint the beginning of the cold spell to Oct. 6, 2013. The day before the high temperature was 93 degrees (shudder).

Since then the temperature hasn’t risen to 90 degrees or higher, and 64 out of 105 days, or 61 percent, have recorded below-normal temperatures. October, November and December have all had monthly average temperatures below normal, and it’s looking very likely that January will join them.

In short, while it hasn’t been an extremely cold winter, it has been consistently cold since early October.

Anyway, let’s do the numbers for last week.

Date High Temp. Low Temp. Average Departure Rainfall Monday 71 45 58 +5 0.24 Tuesday 70 35 53 0 0.00 Wednesday 59 36 48 -5 0.00 Thursday 70 33 52 -1 0.00 Friday 63 39 51 -2 0.00 Saturday 69 32 51 -2 0.00 Sunday 69 41 55 +4 0.00 Average 67.3 37.3 52.7 -0.1 0.24 (tot.)

PRESENT

This week’s weather will start out with some foggy areas, but that will burn off later this morning under partly sunny skies.

The region also will see rising humidity levels today, under the influence of a southerly wind. High temperatures today should rise into the mid-70s today before the next cold front moves through tonight, say forecasters with the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service.

The front will bring highs on Tuesday through Thursday down in the 60s, and Wednesday morning will be chilly, with lows in the mid-30s.

Last week I called attention to the possibility of a very cold end to the month of January in the upper Midwest, and it looks like that will come to pass. And while some of the Arctic air will filter into Texas, it appears unlikely that the city will see lows in the low 20s like it did earlier this month.

This core of very cold air will reach the upper Midwest by Tuesday, with temperatures more than 30 degrees below normal across parts of Minnesota and Michigan.

It’s not clear how far this Arctic air mass will push into the southern United States, including Texas, but a front should reach the Houston region on Thursday.

Of interest is the fact that while the air will be cold, there should be some moisture remaining in the atmosphere after the cold front. This could allow for the possibility of some freezing rain or sleet on Thursday night, especially to the north of Houston, but possibly in the city itself. Lows on Friday morning should be below freezing for parts of the metro area.

The atmosphere should dry out by Friday. The day itself should be quite cold, with highs only rising into the 40s.

By the weekend, in the wake of the front, temperatures should climb into the upper 50s on Saturday and mid-60s on Sunday, with lots of sunshine.

FUTURE

Are you wondering when winter will end?

Well, we’re not there yet my friends. Although Houston passed the historical peak of winter in early January, the city has often received very cold weather in February, too.

The average date of the last freeze at Bush Intercontinental Airport doesn’t come until March 1. It’s a little earlier for Hobby Airport, which is closer to the coast and a good proxy for locations to the south and southeast of downtown Houston. The average date of its last freeze is Feb. 8.

SUMMARY

My rating scale for this week’s weather goes from 0 to 28, the number of shots under par Spring golfer Patrick Reed ended his round Sunday at the Humana Challenge, winning the PGA Tour event.

My number: 21.

Finally, if you want several daily updates on weather, please “like” my SciGuy Facebook page. It’s the best place for multiple daily updates on our weather, delivered right to your news feed.

FINE PRINT

As always, thank you to the fine professionals at the National Weather Service for the information and data that make this weekly blog entry possible. Also, bear in mind there’s always uncertainty in weather forecasting, particularly the timing and intensity of precipitation.