EXCLUSIVE POLL

UK voters favor no-deal Brexit over Jeremy Corbyn as PM: poll

Just 18 percent of voters back the leader of the opposition to become prime minister.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn | Robert Perry/Getty Images

LONDON — Voters are more opposed to the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister, than Britain leaving the European Union without a deal, according to exclusive polling for POLITICO.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s “do or die” pledge on Brexit is striking a chord with many voters, who now back a return to the ballot box in a general election to break the political impasse.

The POLITICO-Hanbury snap poll conducted as parliamentary drama was unfolding in Westminster on Tuesday evening and Wednesday suggests the prime minister’s uncompromising Brexit strategy is playing well with voters who want to see Brexit delivered by October 31. That could pay electoral dividends for Johnson, if he succeeds in his call for an election. The prime minister’s attempt to gain parliamentary approval for an early election failed on Wednesday evening.

But with an imminent election seemingly still highly likely, the poll results will be seen as a positive signal in No. 10 Downing Street. They suggest that the strategy of taking a tough stance against Tory opponents and pursuing an election to bring about Brexit by October 31 has a chance of paying off.

While 43 percent of respondents said Corbyn as prime minister would be the worst possible outcome, just 35 percent said a no-deal exit would be worse. About one-quarter said they are both equally bad options.

Only 39 percent of voters are optimistic about the U.K. leaving the EU without a deal.

One in five potential Conservative voters said opposition to Corbyn was their primary motivating factor in the way they voted. Asked who would make the best prime minister, 40 percent of the 995 people polled by Hanbury opted for Johnson, with just 18 percent favoring the leader of the opposition.

Although respondents backed an early election in October — with 46 percent in favor and 36 against — the poll suggests that going to the country would be a gamble for the prime minister. The Conservative Party’s lead is only a slim 7 percentage points over Labour — a similar margin to the one former Tory leader David Cameron had in 2015 when he won a tiny majority. It puts the Tories on 33 percent, Labour on 26 percent, the Liberal Democrats on 17 percent and the Brexit Party on 14 percent.

Only 39 percent of voters are optimistic about the U.K. leaving the EU without a deal, compared with 41 percent who are pessimistic.

A Brexit election

Something in Johnson’s favor though, the poll suggests, is that he is unlikely to face a repeat of the 2017 campaign that deprived Theresa May of her majority in the House of Commons. In that contest, Corbyn’s Labour Party successfully shifted the election narrative from Brexit to domestic issues like the NHS and school funding.

With Brexit now dominating the political agenda, it now looks unavoidable that an early election would be fought primarily on that ground. Only 8 percent of voters said their vote would be motivated by investment in public services. In contrast, 17 percent said their primary focus is delivering Brexit on October 31 and 11 percent on revoking Article 50 and remaining in the European Union.

Securing a second referendum on the U.K.’s membership of the European Union is lower on people’s priority list (with 7 percent), suggesting more voters see a general election as the route out of the current impasse.

HYPOTHETICAL SECOND BREXIT REFERENDUM POLL OF POLLS

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October 31 Brexit deadline divides opinion among voters. When offered the opportunity to choose multiple options, almost half (42 percent) of respondents see it as “an attempt to stop parliament from blocking no deal.” Forty percent see it as an “attempt to deliver Brexit.” Thirty percent said it is an “attempt to end the Brexit stalemate.” Nineteen percent said it is a “normal part of government.” And 16 percent see it as “an illegal coup.”

This article is part of POLITICO’s premium Brexit service for professionals: Brexit Pro. To test our expert policy coverage of the implications and next steps per industry, email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.

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