Bill Glauber

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

It's Wisconsin. Of course the race for governor is a dead heat.

With Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll showing Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democrat Tony Evers tied at 47 percent each among likely voters, the stage is now set for a frenetic closing sprint leading to the Nov. 6 election.

"Well, it couldn't be any closer," Marquette poll director Charles Franklin said. "We had exactly the same number of respondents picking each side."

Libertarian Phil Anderson was at 3 percent and only 1 percent did not know who they would vote for.

"This race could tip in either direction based on our data," Franklin said.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin led Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by 54 percent to 43 percent.

And in the attorney general's race, Republican incumbent Brad Schimel led Democrat Josh Kaul, 47 percent to 45 percent, within the survey's margin of error.

Franklin said the governor's race "has been close in most of our polls. So I'm not surprised to see a close race. But one that is essentially dead tied is a pretty unusual outcome."

Franklin said "both campaigns are deeply focused on how you get those voters who support you to the polls."

"How could that change in the last week? Some people could break, though we don't have many undecided voters," Franklin said. "Some people, probably independents, could shift. But I'd be surprised if we see a really big change. I've been surprised before. But this last week may be a game of inches, maybe millimeters to get the advantage."

Marquette's final 2016 poll showed Democrats Hillary Clinton and Russ Feingold ahead in races for president and U.S. Senate, respectively, but in the end, the winners were the Republicans, President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.

Going inside the latest numbers, Walker was viewed favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 49 percent while Evers was viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent, with 17 percent not having heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Among registered voters, 50 percent approved of the job Walker was doing as governor and 46 percent disapproved.

Breaking down the race by demographics, Walker had a 19-point advantage with white male non-college graduates while Evers had a 12-point advantage among white female college graduates. Evers had a 5-point advantage among white female non-college voters, while Walker had a 5-point lead among white male college graduates. Evers also led among nonwhite and Hispanic voters.

Ninety-six percent of Republicans support Walker and 93 percent of Democrats support Evers. Among independents, Evers led Walker by 7 points.

In the U.S. Senate race, Baldwin was plus 6 on her favorable numbers, with 49 percent having a favorable view of the first-term senator and 43 percent an unfavorable view.

Vukmir was underwater, with 33 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable and 24 percent unable to form an opinion.

Among registered voters, 45 percent approved of the job Baldwin has done, and 40 percent had an unfavorable view.

Baldwin led all demographic groups in the Senate race, except among white male, non-college voters who supported Vukmir by 13 points.

Vukmir was backed by 91 percent of Republicans and Baldwin was backed by 97 percent of Democrats. Independents broke to Baldwin by 22 points.

In the attorney general's race, the public is still getting to know the candidates. Forty-five percent couldn't form an opinion about Schimel, who is in his first term, and 72 percent couldn't form an opinion on Kaul, who is making his first run for political office.

Schimel led by 20 points among white non-college men, while Kaul had a 10-point lead among white female college voters.

Schimel was supported by 89 percent of Republicans, Kaul was backed by 87 percent of Democrats and Kaul had a 3-point lead among independents.

Top issues

When it comes to the most important issue in the state, 25% picked health care coverage, with the economy and K-12 education tied at 20 percent and roads in fourth place at 12 percent.

And if you're wondering why all the candidates are engaged in fierce debates over pre-existing conditions, here's the reason why: 82 percent said it was very important to have pre-existing conditions coverage for health insurance.

By 55 percent to 40 percent, a majority of registered voters said the state was headed on the right track. That's usually a good sign for an incumbent governor.

On teacher pay, 58 percent said pay and benefits should be higher, 32 percent said pay is about right and 4 percent thought there should be cuts.

Asked the top priority for improved education outcomes, 28 percent pointed to improved parenting and 25 percent to adding more resources. School choice was third at 12 percent and better teaching was fourth at 11 percent.

On roads, 59 percent were opposed to raising the gas tax to spend on roads, while 36 percent said they were in favor of raising the tax.

On the state providing subsidies to bring Foxconn Technology Group to Racine County, 41 percent said it will be worth the cost, 40 percent not worth it, while 18 percent didn't know.

Forty percent said the state has done either a lot or a fair amount to address the opioid crisis while 50 percent said the state had done only a little or nothing.

Forty-seven percent approved of the job being done by Trump and 50 percent disapproved.

The survey of 1,400 registered voters was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Of the 1,154 likely voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The composition of the entire sample, including leaners, was 47 percent Republican, 45 percent Democratic and 7 percent independent. Among likely voters, it was 46 percent Republican and 47 percent Democratic.

RELATED:Early voting hits midterm record in Wisconsin

VOTER GUIDE:Voter guide: Here's what you need to know about Wisconsin's Nov. 6 general election

RELATED:A study in contrasts: Tammy Baldwin and Leah Vukmir battle for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin

RELATED:Lessons learned from presidential bid launched Scott Walker on quest for third term

RELATED:Tony Evers seeks a new life a decade after nearly losing his own to cancer

POLITIFACT: Fact-checking Tammy Baldwin and Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate

POLITIFACT: Fact-checking the candidates for Wisconsin governor

ELECTION LIST: See all of the races on Tuesday's ballots