BuzzFeed News understands it all comes down to 18 members of the state executive: 10 from the "moderate" faction (Malcolm Turnbull's own group) and eight from the "centre right".

Two members of the Liberal executive said that the eight "centre right" members were lining up behind their candidate, former Fierravanti-Wells staffer Hollie Hughes.

The "moderates" will need to all vote for Fierravanti-Wells (who comes from the "hard right") to save her career. But one executive member said there is "no love lost for Connie" among the moderates, and right now "it's 50-50".

Earlier this month BuzzFeed News revealed there's been a mysterious mass departure from Fierravanti-Wells's office since last year, with the senator's office sending Christmas Eve letters to former employees "demanding loyalty".

The bitter factional drama over Fierravanti-Wells's future comes just months after Malcolm Turnbull was met with laughter and jeering when he told the NSW Liberals the party was not run by factions.

"We're not run by factions, we're not run by ... well you can dispute but I have to tell you from experience we are not run by factions," he said.