When Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted a dinner for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh brass at his official residence on June 14, the discussion revolved around the growing unrest among Dalits, farmers and tribals across the country and how the Opposition was painting an anti-Dalit image of the BJP. Modi stressed on how the party and parivar had to work harder to get the message across to the poor, including Dalits and tribals, about the work done by the Centre for them through schemes like Jan Dhan, Mudra loans, Ujjwala cooking gas and the many insurance plans including the latest, Ayushmann Bharat. Before they left, he told the pracharaks: "Our biggest challenge is to defeat the efforts of the Opposition and anarchist elements who want to divide society by inciting caste passions."

The RSS pracharaks were of much the same mind. In fact, they sensed trouble much before the prime minister expressed his concern that evening. On the first day of 2018, violent clashes had erupted at Bhima-Koregaon, a tiny village near Pune in Maharashtra, during a commemorative event organised by a Dalit organisation. It spread to several parts of the state. In April, the country witnessed protests and clashes in many states following a Supreme Court ruling diluting the provisions of the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. There have been other major protests, in Tamil Nadu's Tuticorin against a polluting industrial plant; in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh where tribals have launched the Pathalgadi movement with villagers declaring the sovereignty of gram panchayats.

All these protests are of the sort that India has taken in its stride in the past, the great churn of democracy in play, as it were. But for the ruling BJP, and particularly its spiritual alma mater, the RSS, there's a sinister pattern to it all. The Sangh parivar does not see these as isolated, spontaneous protests. They believe these events are being fuelled by "anti-national elements" such as the Maoists, Islamic extremists, Christian missionary organisations et al, with the backing of the Congress and other political parties inimical to the Sangh. The primary objective of these forces, they maintain, is to destabilise the Modi government, prevent it from getting a second term. They say it's a well-planned conspiracy to divide Hindu society on caste lines.

This is the narrative the RSS and BJP want to weave in their campaign for the 2019 general elections-the alleged divisive politics of the Opposition versus the transparent, nationalist government of Modi. It is the core of the Sangh parivar's new blueprint to secure a victory in 2019, and with it, a second term for the Modi government.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and BJP's Amit Shah at a Delhi function. Source: Pankaj Nangia/Mail Today

June has been a good month to test whether the plan has any traction. It's already in play with the Maharashtra police arresting some "urban Maoists" in connection with the Bhima-Kore­gaon violence. Then came the incident where deceased Dalit scholar-activist Rohith Vemula's mother claimed the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) had reneged on its promise of a Rs 20 lakh house for the family. BJP leaders lost no time in claiming a conspiracy. It's a different matter that the din drowned out her statement the next day when she withdrew the charge against the party.

But this RSS-BJP narrative is also about the realisation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal charisma and the organisational power of the Sangh may still not be enough for the party to cross the line in 2019. The chink in the armour is visible to the Opposition too, hence their counter-narrative discourse around the RSS. "Jitne bhi Hindu dharamwale aatankvadi pakde gaye hain, sab Sangh ke karyakarta rahe hain (all the Hindu terrorists who have been caught have a Sangh background). This ideology spreads hate, hate leads to violence, which leads to terrorism," Congress leader Digvijaya Singh told reporters in Jhabua in Madhya Pradesh on June 18.

This sudden attack on the RSS, within a week of Congress president Rahul Gandhi pleading not guilty in a defamation case filed against him by the organisation, was not just a retaliatory statement. It is also part of a planned strategy. Buoyed by the growing unity among Opposition parties and the victories in several bypolls, the Congress sees a tear in the supposed invincibility of PM Modi and BJP president Amit Shah's election management skills.

But between this dream of stopping the Modi juggernaut in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and reality stands one mighty force-the RSS. Rahul identified this force way back in July 2017 when he said in Delhi: "Why give Modi undue credit? It is the RSS that has propped him up. He is just a byproduct. It is no longer about Modi but whether this country can have RSS ideology in its daily governance."

The fact that Modi met the RSS brass twice in a span of three days in June is a clear indication that the organisation will play a pivotal role in 2019. The RSS's electoral influence was on display in Tripura when the BJP uprooted a two-decade-old Left government. Five years ago, the saffron party did not have a single MLA there, but things changed after hundreds of RSS pracharaks from Maharashtra descended on the state, spreading the network to the remotest corners.

There have been media reports pointing out that the RSS is unhappy with the functioning of the Modi government in some areas. But the reality for now is this: both sides need Modi to get another term. A source close to BJP organisation secretary and RSS pracharak Ram Lal says the constant attacks by Rahul have brought the RSS and BJP closer. "No party can come to power with just negative campaigning. Rahul's entire plank is negative. It is bound to help us in the long run," he says.

Rahul Gandhi with Opposition leaders at Karnataka CM H.D. Kumaraswamys swearing in. Source: PTI

Of late, the RSS has perhaps faced one of the most sustained attacks on it by Left-liberal forces. As Arun Kumar, national head of the RSS publicity wing, puts it, "The fight is no more between the country's political parties but between us and the forces who, by hook or by crook, want to defeat the Sangh and see the Modi government out in 2019."

The Congress pooh-poohs such charges, claiming the BJP is trying to find excuses to cover up its failures. "In fact, destabilisation, deception and diversion are intrinsic to PM Modi's agenda," says Randeep Singh Surjewala, Congress communication in-charge. "In the last four years, the entire ecosystem of the BJP and its governments (in the states) has been built around religion and caste-based faultlines. People have seen through these tricks. Is it any wonder that the BJP has lost every Lok Sabha byelection in the past two years? This is a prelude to what will happen in 2019."

The RSS is now gearing up to take this 'challenge' head on. At a three-day 'manthan shivir' in Surajkund attended by the BJP party brass, RSS sar karyavah (general secretary) Bhaiyyaji (Suresh) Joshi warned that indifference towards grassroots workers would cost the BJP. A key deduction was that the BJP lost some of the recent byelections because the cadre "remained silent". Ram Lal has been asked to prepare a report card of Lok Sabha MPs. Tickets will be distributed based on it and, if sources are to be believed, nearly a hundred MPs will be replaced. Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh could be the states where the maximum numbers get the axe.

Another significant move has been the month-long Sampark for Samarthan programme, an outreach mission where senior leaders meet "influencers" from various walks of life. It's actually an extension of an earlier 2005 RSS programme, the Vishesh Sampark Abh­iyan. Nearly 5,000 eminent people were contacted under that. RSS insiders say inviting Pranab Muk­h­erjee to Nagpur should, then, not be seen as an isolated incident. It's been part of a decade-long process to present the RSS in the right light to the people of India.

Mukherjee's presence at its headquarters must have been sweet for the Sangh, given his antecedents as a Congress veteran, and the fact, well known in Congress circles, that Rahul has been meeting him at least once a month since last July to seek advice. He has even publicly claimed that he considers the former president one of his political gurus. Now that the guru has declared the RSS founder K.B. Hedgewar as a "great son of Mother India", the Sangh is understandably mirthful.

BJP chief Shah has now asked 4,000 party leaders across the country to reach out to 25 eminent people each in an effort to connect with 100,000 people by June 30. Shah himself has met disgruntled ally, the Shiv Sena's Uddhav Thackeray; Union environment minister Harshvardhan met Delhi Archbishop Anil Couto, who had written a letter apprehending a "turbulent political atmosphere" that could lead to a subversion of the Constitution; and Assam chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal met Left intellectual Hiren Gohain, who had openly appealed to the people of Assam in 2016 not to vote for the BJP.

THE DALIT CHALLENGE

The biggest blow the emerging rain­bow anti-BJP alliance has dealt to the parivar is on the Dalit front. According to the RSS, the riots in March in response to the Supreme Court ruling were of the Opposition's making. They stress that this has happened despite the Modi government's vocal opposition to the 'dilution' of the SC/ST atrocities law and its many Dalit empowerment policies such as Stand Up India, and new provisions in the Dalit atrocity law (number of punishable acts is now 47). It's common knowledge that the intensity of the riots and the violence that accompanied them caught the party as well as the Sangh parivar off guard. Worse, the BJP's own Dalit leaders such as Udit Raj turned against it.

Many of these leaders have also been trying to arm-twist the party for personal gains, sources say. Modi and Shah made a strategic mistake in not giv­ing senior Dalit leader Udit Raj a ministerial berth. On the other hand, its own Dalit leaders from the RSS ranks like Union social justice minister Thawarchand Gehlot have proved ineffective in neutralising the Opposition's anti-Dalit charge against the BJP.

But the worst damage for the BJP on this front has been the national resurrection of Mayawati, just a year after she and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had been wiped out in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assem­bly polls. Says RSS ideologue and commentator Rakesh Sinha, "The RSS-BJP need to re-examine their Dalit position because their enemies have been able to paint them as anti-Dalit. Within the Dalit samaj, there is a clash between the 'neo class' and the conventional leadership. Perhaps the Sangh parivar needs to strategise and engage with the neo-Dalit class."

THE DALIT RECOVERY PLAN

The RSS has been making moves to stage a recovery among the Dalits, one model being the apparent saffron recovery in the Chambal region in MP which saw extreme Dalit violence after the SC judgment in March. But within two months, RSS leaders claim their cadre brought the situation around by going from village to village and holding 'social harmony meetings' to heal the wounds.

Meanwhile, the Sangh's larger Dalit outreach is being spun around a claimed-if hotly contested-kinship with Dalit icon B.R. Ambedkar who, before he died, the RSS says, was impressed by the Sangh's views on a 'casteless society'. The plan is to put out Ambedkar's 'true views' through printed literature and talks to remove what the Sangh perceives as the 'anti-Dalit image' its enemies have created.

As proof of this, Kishore Makwana, a Gujarat-based Dalit scholar cites a book written by late RSS ideologue Dattopant Thengadi, Samajik Kranti ke Marg par Dr Ambedkar ka Padarpan. Thengadi was close to Ambedkar and among his principal camp­aigners in the 1954 Bhandara Lok Sabha polls the latter contested and lost. He writes: "Babasaheb told me that he agreed with the social objectives of the RSS movement but felt that its growth was too slow. He said he could not wait so long for the social revolution, nor could he leave his people at the mercy of the Marxists. He had to act fast on his own."

However, other Dalit scholars of repute dismiss the recent political manoeuvres as an attempt by the RSS to misappropriate the legacy of Ambedkar. Prakash Ambedkar, his grandson and president of the Bharipa-Bahujan Mahasangh, has declared that Babasaheb stood against everything the RSS propagates today. "When Ambedkar himself converted to Buddhism, when he was against Hindu practices his whole life, how can one even debate Ambedkar with the RSS?" Dalit thinker Chandra Bhan Prasad said in an interview.

Meanwhile, the RSS's 'inclusive programmes' continue, one of which seeks to ensure 'one temple, one water source and one funeral place' in every village to end untouchability. However, a series of incidents of atrocities against Dalits, which got national attention-from the flogging of Dalits in Una to the suicide of Dalit scholar Vemula to protests in Mumbai over the demolition of the iconic Ambedkar Bhavan-has seriously damaged the BJP's image among Dalits. The actions of some BJP leaders have added fuel to the fire. If the UP unit vice-president Dayashankar Singh compared Mayawati to a prostitute, scheduled caste people in UP's Kushinagar district were given soap and shampoo by the local administration to clean themselves ahead of a visit by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

On April 6, Modi asked BJP MPs and ministers to spend time in places with more than 50 per cent SC population. The programme 'Gram Swaraj' turned into a farce, when UP cabinet minister Suresh Rana who had visited a Dalit family in Aligarh for a symbolic meal, had the food delivered by a caterer. "The exercise is more like humiliating Dalits. This is doing more harm to the party," Udit Raj said in an interview.

A lot of the anger among Dalits also stems from the BJP's intolerance of cow slaughter and the rise of gau raksha vigilante groups. A large number of Dalits are associated with the leather and leather products industries and activities such as skinning of cattle. The violent environment has left many jobless and insecure.

A TRIPLE TEST

Before 2019, the BJP faces a triple test of assembly elections, in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In MP, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government battles anti-incumbency and a revamped Congress under old warhorse Kamal Nath. RSS insiders say Congress unity in the state is the strongest it has been in 15 years. The party is trying to capitalise on the farmers' distress but the BJP says it has a strategy to counter this. "The Congress is exposing itself...its divisive role in the Mandsaur agitation resulted in the deaths of farmers in police firing. Exposing the Congress will be a major part of our electoral strategy," says BJP state organisation secretary Suhas Bhagat.

In Rajasthan, the RSS believes the BJP is on the back foot, crippled by multiple factors such as strong caste groups turning against it, lack of internal unity in the party and poor implementation of some government policies. The humil­iating defeats in three bypolls have alr­eady left the party brass nervous. But even now, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and Shah have not been able to settle their differences over selecting a state unit president, though elections are just five months away. "The combined might of the BJP and RSS cannot make people forget the misrule of the Raje government. The people are with us," says Rajasthan Congress chief Sachin Pilot.

The RSS also has to tackle two more 'troublemakers' in MP and Rajasthan-Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani. Patel has been campaigning in the Patidar-dominated areas of Madhya Pradesh and Mewani has been active in the Dalit-concentration areas of Rajasthan.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has visited Chhattisgarh twice in the past six months, proof of the Sangh's focus on the state. What worries the RSS is the reported involvement of the local church and Maoist elements in the Pathalgadi movement (see The Tribal Uprising). In a sort of declaration of independence agitation, tribals in some villages have put up plaques, painted in green and white, declaring the gram sabha as the only "sovereign authority" under the provisions of the Panchayats (Extension of Scheduled Areas) Act (PESA), 1996. They don't allow officials to enter their villages. The plaques say that laws enacted by Parliament are not applicable in scheduled areas where the gram sabha is supreme.

The Sarva Adivasi Samaj, an umb­r­ella body of tribal groups, claims the movem­ent was launched because tribals felt cheated over the improper implem­en­tation of laws meant to protect their interests. "The BJP and RSS are trying to find excuses to paper over their inaction on tribal welfare. The agitation is driven by the villagers, there is no external element," says Congress in-charge of Chhattisgarh P.L. Punia.

RSS-BJP RELATIONS

One reason why RSS-BJP relations are better now than during the Vajpayee years is the fact that Shah himself is a hardcore RSS man and it is he who deals with the Sangh brass on behalf of the party and government. Another reason is the Modi government has always heeded-if not necessarily complied with-the demands of the parivar affiliates.

Shah has even been able to justify to the RSS leadership the 'defection politics' he plays to capture power in the states as part of a larger ideological battle. But the biggest thing going for this symbiotic relationship is the "unparalleled transparency of the BJP government", which has left a deep impression on the RSS brass. Modi and Shah have led from the front in this, the former by providing a clean administration, and the latter with his austerity as party president. Shah avoids travelling by chartered flights and stays in party offices or circuit houses while on tour, setting an example in a party that was increasingly getting sucked into the five-star culture.

This has made the RSS leadership overlook complaints of senior BJP leaders that Modi and Shah don't allow them any role in decision-making. Bhaiyyaji Joshi was in Delhi recently talking to many of them, including Union home minister Rajnath Singh, foreign minister Sushma Swaraj and roads and highways minister Nitin Gadkari. Many ministers were unhappy with the duo's autocratic style of functioning. One major sore point was the two didn't even call a parliamentary board meeting to discuss the distribution of Rajya Sabha tickets to over two dozen candidates in March.

RSS AND GOVERNANCE

The RSS may have refrained from interfering in the day-to-day functioning of the Modi government, but it has made its stand clear on important issues. RSS insiders say, barring a few friction points, the Sangh is largely satisfied with the Modi government's policies. However, when it comes to their execution, the RSS had issues with the BJP government. For instance, the RSS believes the GST implementation could have been much better and the government could have avoided antagonising the middle class and small traders, who played a key role in the BJP's victory in 2014.

Another area where the RSS found the government underperforming was Kashmir. On June 16, when PM Modi met the RSS brass with his colleagues, the Kashmir situation was discussed at length. It was here that the decision to part ways with the PDP was first taken. This is not the first time the RSS has intervened in Valley affairs. A key demand of theirs has been the deportation of the 'illegal' Rohingya refugees in Jammu. The BJP-PDP government's silence on the issue had angered the RSS. In March, sah sarkaryavah Manmohan Vaidya had visited Jammu and expressed his displeasure to the BJP ministers in the state, saying they had failed to take up the cause of the Hindu population in Jammu.

Two more areas of concern are the privatisation of Air India and salary hikes for anganwadi workers. Sangh affiliate Swadeshi Jagran Manch and Bhagwat himself want to ensure Air India is not sold to a foreign firm. The government's labour reforms have also earned flak from the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh. In the farming and agriculture sector, implementation of the crop insurance scheme and the minimum support price for crops are issues that the RSS has taken up with the BJP.

On the foreign policy front, the RSS is, on the whole, happy with the way Modi has handled China, enhanced India's standing on the world stage by making the United Nations accept his suggestion of an International Day of Yoga on June 21 and boosted India's soft power by engaging NRIs. The RSS still wants a long-term doctrine for Pakistan because of the country's unstable political nature while the prime minister's recent meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin allayed concerns that India wasn't leaning too much on the US and counterbalancing ties were being explored with Russia.

A YOUNGER, INCLUSIVE SANGH

In May, BJP and RSS leaders met to prepare a blueprint to counter the Left-liberal narrative of various current political incidents. Participants at the meeting included Shah, RSS joint general secretary Krishnagopal, party leaders Ram Madhav and Ram Lal, HRD minister Prakash Javadekar and culture minister Mahesh Sharma. Javadekar and Sharma were given clear instructions to nurture a crop of articulate writers who can put forward the Sangh's views clearly and also publicise the BJP government's work for Dalits and farmers, and in conflict-ridden regions such as the Northeast and J&K.

Two more brainstorming sessions were held with eminent writers at Delhi's Indira Gandhi National Centre for the Arts to create a strong "right-wing intellectual ecosystem". Another such meeting was held at the Nehru Memorial Museum & Library (NMML), which was attended by some of the country's top artists and a few PMO officials.

The RSS has also resorted to several experiments in its functioning in recent times. For example, it has dropped its insistence on attending daily shakhas keeping in mind the demands of nuclear families. Instead, it is now promoting weekly milans (get-togethers) for youngsters and monthly milan programmes for seniors. "The idea is to ideologically connect them with the RSS," says Hitesh Shankar, editor of the RSS magazine Panchjanya.

Interestingly, a significant change was witnessed at the recent Rashtriya Pratinidhi Sabha at Nagpur. The sabha is a meeting of around 900 elected RSS representatives held every three years. In 2015, the majority of attendees were between 50 and 60 years. But this year, over half the members were in the 25-40 age group. Says Prafulla Ketkar, editor of Organiser, the RSS's English magazine, "The RSS profile is becoming more and more representative of the demography of India."

Despite all this, the RSS still faces a perception battle, mostly on account of several unruly "fringe elements" who swear by Hindutva and continue to dispense their brand of vigilante justice in the name of gau raksha and suchlike. The RSS and Modi have not done enough to rein in these elements. How the two forces deal with the perception paradox will be key in determining the results of 2019. In 2014, the RSS, for the first time, officially took part in the BJP's election management. Next year will see a repeat of the joint exercise. The battle is no more just electoral, it will be fought on ideological lines as well. What remains constant is the old warhorse-Narendra Damodardas Modi.