By Ryan Dunleavy | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The solution to the Giants' half-rebuild might be Jon Gruden. Or rather his next discard.

The Giants tried to win in the present with moves around quarterback Eli Manning in 2018, and it is not working.

If they replace Manning with a rookie or in-house 2018 fourth-round pick Kyle Lauletta, it will be counterproductive to moves made in free agency and the NFL Draft from 2016-18.

And the projected free agent options won't make any general manager salivate.

But ...

Don't Edit

Warren Little | Getty

What if the Raiders move on from Derek Carr?

Don't laugh. The Raiders already traded their best defensive player (Khalil Mack) to the Bears and are said to be shopping both 2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley after he did not take a snap at cornerback in Week 6 and top wide receiver Amari Cooper.

It seems Gruden's plan in his first year as a $100 million head coach is to blow up a team that won 12 games in 2016 and put his own fingerprints on a rebuild.

Carr might not fit the bill.

Don't Edit

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com reported there is talk among NFL general managers that Carr could be come available in 2019. Only 16 months after the Raiders finalized a contract extension for five years and $125 million, Carr could be the answer to the Giants' needs.

Carr, 27, is young.

He is a three-time Pro Bowler.

He led the Raiders to a playoff berth (but he only is 29-39 as a starter in his career).

He knows how to survive a beating -- a requirement behind the Giants offensive line until further notice -- as the Raiders allowed 10 quarterback hits, including six sacks, in Week 6 before heading off late for a medical evaluation. He tried to fight his way back in the game and is not expected to miss a start.

Carr makes sense for the Giants. And the win-now Giants make sense for the former 2014 second-round draft pick.

So, how could a marriage happen? Let us explain.

Don't Edit

Contract details

If the Raiders traded Carr, his bonus money would accelerate into their salary cap. The new team, the Giants in this case, would be responsible for his base salary. Here are those numbers, according to spotrac.com and overthecap.com:

2019: $19.9 million

2020: $18.9 million

2021: $19.525 million

2022: $19.777 million

Don't Edit

Michael Wagaman, AP

But Carr's extension includes a potential out after the 2018 season that turns it into a two-year deal worth $47.675 million.

By cutting Carr after the season, the Raiders would save $15 million against the cap and take on just $7.5 million of dead money in 2019 instead of a $22.5 million salary cap hit. Same numbers apply for a trade.

If the Raiders stick with Carr in 2019 and move on later, the dead cap would be $5 million in 2020, $2.5 million in 2021 and no dead cap in 2021.

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Split between Jon Gruden and Reggie McKenzie further evidenced in Raiders shopping of recent top picks: https://t.co/T29jLIyIqX — Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) October 14, 2018

Don't Edit

Won’t matter - Raiders won’t be picking one. 9ers/Cards/Giants are way worse. No clue what Gruden will do with Carr. My guess is he trades him to the Giants for their 2nd rounder https://t.co/513iRXObje — John Middlekauff (@JohnMiddlekauff) October 13, 2018

Don't Edit

Does he fit with Pat Shurmur?

Giants coach Pat Shurmur prioritizes completion percentage above all other quarterback traits. Carr is a 62.3 percent passer for his career, but he is completing a career-high 71.7 percent of his throws in 2018.

But Shurmur loathes turnovers even more than most coaches. Carr has thrown a career-high eight (compared to seven touchdowns) already this season, which is two more than he had on 560 attempts during 2016. He has never thrown more than 13 interceptions in a season, always with at least nine more touchdowns than interceptions.

At Fresno State, Carr ran a quick-throw offense where he was a point guard distributing the ball to receivers in space. Carr also has pocket mobility -- he is not a dual threat but he can extend plays -- that fits with Shurmur's scheme, especially if he wants to incorporate bootlegs and other rollouts.

Don't Edit

Kathy Willens | AP

Family tie to Giants

Carr is the younger brother of former No. 1 overall draft pick, David Carr, who spent fours seasons over two stints with the Giants as Manning's backup (2008-09, 2011-12). He was cut n August 2013.

The elder Carr's career was ruined by the lack of an offensive line with the expansion Texans in 2002. He went 22-53 in 75 starts over five years with the Texans.

The younger Carr can call his brother for an educated opinion on the New York market and playing for the Mara/Tisch family ownership group.

Don't Edit

10 things we want to hear from Giants right now

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Marc Serota | Getty

Market value

The Raiders traded Mack -- a Hall of Fame-caliber linebacker -- a 2020 second-round pick and a conditional 2020 fifth-round pick to the Raiders for a 2019 first-round pick, 2020 first-round pick, 2020 third-round pick, 2019 sixth-round pick.

The Raiders reportedly want a first-round draft pick for Amari Cooper.

The Mack trade is emptying the reserve, but general manager Dave Gettleman has proven during his time as general manager of the Panthers and the Giants that he is not afraid to trade draft picks.

Theoretically, a quarterback should cost more than a linebacker or receiver, but that might not be the case with Carr because teams know the Raiders could release him with no return value. Plus, Carr does not rank within his position group anywhere near Mack does as a pass-rusher, also a premium need.

Don't Edit

On the quarterback market:

The Eagles reportedly turned down an offseason offer of a second-round pick offer for Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, who is their backup quarterback.

The Saints just traded a third-round pick to the Jets for a backup quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) and a sixth-rounder.

The Patriots traded backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to start for the 49ers and received a second-round pick in return.

The Bills acquired a third-round pick from the Browns for their starter Tyrod Taylor after he led the team to its first playoff appearance in nearly 20 years.

Don't Edit

Giants' 2019 draft assets

1st round: Giants own their own pick

2nd round: Giants own their own pick

3rd round: Giants do not have a pick (Sam Beal picked in NFL Compensatory Draft)

4th round: Giants own their own pick, projected compensatory pick by overthecap.com*

5th round: Giants own their own pick

6th round: Giants own their own pick

7th round: Giants own picks originally belonging to Rams (Alec Ogletree trade) and Vikings (Brett Jones trade) but not their own pick (Riley Dixon trade)

Here is a closer look at how the Giants' 2019 NFL Draft shakes out

Don't Edit

Steven Ryan | Getty

How to fit Derek Carr in 2019 salary cap?

Manning is signed through the 2019 season at a cap hit of $23.2 million.

If the Giants released him, they would save $17 million with only $6.2 million of dead cap. So the Giants could create almost all of the space needed to fit Carr into the 2019 cap just by releasing Manning.

The rest of the money is easy to create. The writing is on the wall to release running back Jonathan Stewart, who has a cap hit of $3.1 million with only $250,000 of dead money, leaving $2.625 in savings.

Then the Giants just have to make other moves equal on both sides of the ledger to fit other free agents and draft picks.

Manning told NJ Advance Media in July that there had been no talk with the Giants of an extension -- he re-signed for four years and $84 million in September 2015 -- and his play certainly hasn't warranted negotiations.

Fitting Carr in the 2020-22 salary caps could be trickier.

Don't Edit

How many more winnable games do Giants have?

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

John Munson | NJ Advance Media

How do the Giants fit Carr beyond 2019?

The Giants have several key cap decisions coming up:

DE Olivier Vernon: The Giants could release Vernon for $11.5 million in savings and $8 million in dead cap in 2019. He is signed through 2020, which would open cap space down the road. He is their best pass-rusher but has battled injury problems.

SS Landon Collins: The Giants must decide whether to sign the two-time Pro Bowler to a long-term extension probably in the range of $10-12 million per year, franchise tag him for about $12 million for one year or let him walk away. He might be their best defensive player.

Don't Edit

CB Janoris Jenkins: The Giants could release Jenkins for $7.75 million in savings and $7 million in dead cap in 2019. He is signed through 2020, which would open cap space down the road. He is their best ball-hawking cornerback, though his effort has been questioned at times.

LB Alec Ogletree: The Giants could release Ogletree for $6.5 million in savings and $5.25 million in dead cap in 2019. He is signed through 2021, which would open cap space down the road. He is their best linebacker and possibly their most important leader on either side of the ball.

LT Nate Solder: The Giants just signed Solder to a then-record offensive line contract seven months ago. He could be released in 2020 for $9 million in savings compared to $8 million in dead cap.

Don't Edit

Of those possibilities, the most likely to go is Vernon, especially in a situation where the Giants swap Carr in for Manning. The 2019 NFL Draft is filled with defensive linemen at the top of the board.

If the Giants do not need to use their first-round pick on a quarterback like Oregon's Justin Herbert, they can follow Gettleman's Gold Jacket test and look for a potential future Hall of Famer at a position that he greatly values and has a deep history with the Giants.

The names to know are Ohio State's Nick Bosa, Houston's Ed Oliver and Clemson's Clelin Ferrell.

Don't Edit

NJ Advance Media

Conclusion

Remember these words spoken by Gettleman in April:

"As the GM, I walk a tight line. I have to look at the short term and I have to look at the long term, and that is the tightrope that I walk. I have to take all that into consideration in making decisions, whether it is the draft, whether it is unrestricted free agency, whether it is trading for an Alec Ogletree. You have to think about it."

If he wants to continue to live in the middle ground between totally starting over -- he is 67 years old and wants to win now -- and trying his hand at aging veteran (whether with Manning or someone similar) then Carr could be the right combination of age and experience not available elsewhere.

Don't Edit

The Giants might have to make that kind of move to keep temperamental receiver Odell Beckham from feeling like he is wasting his prime and potentially ruining the confidence of an inexperienced quarterback learns the NFL. That's how Terrell Owens used to wear out his welcome fast.

If Carr is a free agent, he should be the Giants' No. 1 target. If he is available for trade, the Giants need to at least call to find out if a second-rounder in 2019 and a later pick in 2020 can get the job done.

The question that needs answering from Gettleman and his scouts, however: Was Carr's 2016 season a sign of his potential or a fluke?

Don't Edit

Don't Edit

Where are they now? Tracking Giants cut since preseason ended

Don't Edit

NJ Advance Media

PODCAST: Where do Giants go from here?

Ryan Dunleavy can be reached at rdunleavy@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @rydunleavy.