The two clubs that finished either side of the Lions at the bottom of the 2016 ladder, Fremantle and Essendon, might as well have done so with an asterisk, the Dockers surely better than their miserable 16th indicated, and having recruited well, the Bombers set to welcome back half a senior team. I reckon predictions of Hawthorn's imminent demise are very premature as well, Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis are big losses but replacements Jaeger O'Meara and Tom Mitchell are very handy inclusions, and, fingers crossed, Jarryd Roughead is the biggest wildcard of the lot. Only one of last season's top eight – North Melbourne – looked well off the pace by the end, but you'd be brave indeed to insist definitively they cannot make next year's final eight. They're one of 10 candidates for whom quite rational finals cases can be mounted, the best and worst of them separated perhaps by only a couple of goals, and for whom the difference might only be a stroke of good or bad fortune. It's a traffic jam of contenders. Let's examine their CVs.

NORTH MELBOURNE: Sure, it's the end of an era with the departure of the veterans, but the new one gets a decent kick-start through the addition of a smart small forward or mid in Nathan Hrovat and a handy running defender in Marley Williams. Shaun Higgins, a massive loss when injured last season, is a big "in" as well. Mason Wood and Ryan Clarke are good prospects and there are still plenty of kids yet to be given a go. Could be time for Brown, McDonald and Daw to shine. ST KILDA: In the throng of teams around the finals mark, the Saints are arguably the most exciting prospect. They flew home in 2016 with eight wins from their last 11, and have a clutch of exciting types entering their prime led by Jack Steven, Seb Ross, Mav Weller, Tom Hickey and Tim Membrey. The forward set-up is a lot more potent now, the perhaps questionable defence will be bolstered significantly by Jake Carlisle and Nathan Brown, and Koby Stevens and Jack Steele help the midfield depth. Set for a serious crack at the top eight. PORT ADELAIDE: The Power are an enigma, no doubt, their best, as displayed in away wins over Collingwood and North Melbourne last season, still impressive. Mentally fragile, though, and when confidence slips their ball movement is like treacle. The forward line still looks a bit thin on the key forward front, too. But when the Power were at their peak in early 2014 it was small to medium-sized forwards who did much of the work. They get a good one of them back now in Angus Monfries, along with Paddy Ryder. Not without a decent show. MELBOURNE: Along with St Kilda, the Demons are leading the "new guard" of finals contenders, and perhaps not before time. They were close enough in 2016, there's a new coach in Simon Goodwin, and their list demographics look particularly good, only two of last season's best and fairest top 10 – Nathan Jones and Bernie Vince – falling into the veteran class. There's two great pick-ups in Jordan Lewis and Michael Hibberd, and effectively another in Jake Melksham. Couldn't be better-placed for a September tilt. COLLINGWOOD: Plenty of mixed messages out of the Lexus Centre with a decent stockpile of young talent but now also a significant band of trade-ins. Did finish 2016 OK, with five wins in their last 10 and three losses by not much. Personnel? Chris Mayne and Daniel Wells are big "ifs", and the Pies' defensive stocks could be thin. But given a clear run, their midfield stocks are good, Will Hoskin-Elliott an important addition, while a fit Jamie Elliott up forward makes a huge difference. Every chance they'll be around the mark.

RICHMOND: This year was a stinker, but it was still preceded by three consecutive finals finishes. That capability doesn't just vanish. And while Brett Deledio is a big loss, there's an argument two solid midfield pick-ups in Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy more than cancel it out. They could also allow Dustin Martin a more damaging role up forward, where lack of firepower is an issue. Need a good start to avoid obvious heat on Damien Hardwick, but overall their draw is one of the more negotiable. Could surprise if things go right. CARLTON: A massive list turnover, nearly 30 players strong over two off-seasons, means there's much learning to be done. And with a list much younger, a stack of veterans having departed. The positive is Brendon Bolton is a great football teacher and a fair chunk of the youth (the swag of players from GWS) already have significant AFL experience. That means improvement could come more quickly than some imagine. A fit Marc Murphy makes a big difference, and there's plenty of key position potential in attack and defence. GOLD COAST: A six-win season wouldn't ordinarily suggest finals were reachable the following year, not to mention the loss of leading midfielders Prestia and O'Meara. But while the Suns' best was rarely seen in 2016, injuries were a big factor. Given a better run, not to mention a decent influx of talent via the draft and trade-ins Jarrod Witts, Michael Barlow, Jarryd Lyons and Pearce Hanley, there's enormous upside. Having relinquished the captaincy, Gary Ablett will be keen to prove a point. Don't discount from September. FREMANTLE: An amazing slide saw a preliminary finalist of 2015 finish 16th with only four wins. Was it an aberration? It's still hard to believe the Dockers won't bounce back at least part of the way back up the ladder. A fit Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands will help no end, and like the Suns, there's considerable talent coming in via Joel Hamling, Brad Hill, Shane Kersten and Cam McCarthy, two very capable goalkickers, a premiership defender and some midfield pace. Can Ross Lyon release the defence shackles? Nothing to lose in doing so now. ESSENDON: A big "if" about the 10 players coming back into the fold and the impact of a year out. But there's no denying on paper at least this is a list that should have top eight aspirations. It's the Dons' midfield that gets the biggest boost, seven of those 10 on-ballers to go with a new star in Zach Merrett, and "finds" like Parish and Fantasia. There's two All-Australian key defenders in Cale Hooker and Michael Hurley, both also potential key forward to help Joe Daniher. Finals simply have to be on the agenda for the Dons.