NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Be thankful you’re not an oil minister attending the most intensely watched meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, on Thursday.

The world’s heavyweight oil producers are facing a Catch-22. If the 12-member oil cartel cuts oil production in a bid to lift prices, it will likely encourage U.S. shale producers to continue ramping up production that’s contributed to a global supply glut. If OPEC continues to pump away, oil prices are likely to continue to fall.

Here’s a breakdown of what OPEC might do and how markets might react.

No change

Saudi Arabia is seen as the linchpin of global oil production and oil watchers widely suspect that the kingdom has no desire to trim production. Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to cut has spawned numerous conspiracy theories, but the central idea is that Riyadh is eager to keep pressure on North American shale producers who have helped flood the world with oil but who face much higher breakeven production costs.

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If that happens, oil is likely to see another push lower, strategists said. ICE Brent futures UK:LCOF5 could test $75 a barrel, while Nymex WTI crude CLF25, could test $70 in the aftermath, said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com. Longer term, strategists see WTI crude testing prices closer to $60 a barrel.

Small cut

OPEC countries produced nearly 30.7 million barrels a day of oil in September, according to the International Energy Agency, more than a half million barrels above its existing ceiling of 30 million barrels a day. If the cartel does agree to cut, the most likely scenario would be an agreement to merely stick to the existing ceiling.

That would likely be enough to provide some near-term support, said Robert Yawger, director of oil futures at Mizuho Securities, in a phone interview. “The market has a history that shows any time OPEC has cut, every single time the market has traded higher, I don’t think this would be an exception,” he said.

But upside would likely be limited, he said.

Big cut

So what would it take to give oil prices a substantial lift? An agreement to drop the ceiling to 29.5 million barrels a day or below would set the stage for a bigger rally, Yawger said. That would particularly be the case if the agreement was accompanied by strong statements in support of the deal by a wide range of OPEC members.

Only 1 of world’s 5 largest oil producers is an OPEC member BP, Capital Economics

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said a cut in OPEC production to 29.5 million barrels a day or less would likely be sufficient to push Brent prices back to a range of $85 to $90 a barrel.

The bad news for OPEC is that even if members do agree to a significant cut, it would only encourage U.S. and other North American producers to keep pumping, while also providing them with a further opportunity to hedge against future price falls, the Goldman analysts wrote.

‘Going rogue’

Finally, the meeting could see producers fail to come to an agreement. Desperate producers, such as Venezuela and Nigera, which are facing tough fiscal strains due to falling oil prices could opt to “go rogue” and cut production on their own, wrote Brooks.

In such a scenario, the impact on the oil price is harder to predict, Brooks said.

“If more members decide to cut production unilaterally, then we could see the oil price fall, whereas, one or two producers cutting production may not have much impact on the oil price,” she wrote.