The United States men’s Olympic basketball team moves in cycles.

First, there is a loss: Team USA has failed to win gold three times, all 16 years apart from each other, first at the Munich Games in 1972, then at the Seoul Games in 1988, then again at the Athens Games in 2004.

Next, there is a sudden uptick in interest from superstars: After the 1988 Games, international rules changed, allowing NBA players to participate in the Olympics, and in 1992, the United States put forth the Dream Team, the greatest assemblage of basketball talent in the sport’s history. In response to the 2004 loss, America put forth a similarly great squad at the Beijing Games, the Redeem Team. Both romped to gold medals as the game’s biggest stars put the stars and stripes back on top of the podium.

And then comes a steady waning of interest, generally disregarded because the wins keep coming. Four years after the wins of 1992 and 2008, slightly fewer superstars showed up. The 1996 team still coasted, but the 2012 team nearly lost to Spain in the gold-medal match. Four years after that came squads for which superstar attendance lagged and Team USA genuinely struggled en route to gold medals. The 2000 Olympics are remembered for Vince Carter throwing down the greatest dunk of all time, but that spectacular moment just allowed us to forget a team on which Vin Baker and Allan Houston tied for fifth in scoring. Carter (and Baker and Houston) squeaked out a two-point win against Lithuania in the semifinals. In 2016, Carmelo Anthony established himself as an all-time great Olympian, but again, his highlights masked the failings of a team that trailed Australia at the half and won by only three in matchups against France and Serbia.

Twelve years after the Dream Team came the 2004 Stephon Marbury–helmed Olympic basketball team, which lost by 19 (!!!) to Puerto Rico. But that was presaged by a hilariously bad 2002 World Championship team, one that was led by 37-year-old Reggie Miller and that heavily relied on the offense of Ben Wallace. That team finished sixth at the World Championship, which, for some reason, was held in Indianapolis. Those losses ended the last cycle of Team USA basketball, or maybe began the current one.

Right now, the team seems due for a loss and a rebirth. Monday, The Ringer’s Dan Devine wrote about how Damian Lillard seemed like the sole elite talent who had yet to withdraw from Team USA’s squad for the upcoming World Cup in China. On Tuesday, Lillard dropped out. Of the 11 Americans who were named to last year’s All-NBA teams, only one, Kemba Walker, has yet to withdraw from the roster for the 2019 FIBA World Cup. Training camp invitees include Marcus Smart, Thaddeus Young, and P.J. Tucker. Presumably more players will be enticed by the opportunity to play in next year’s Olympics, but the pickings are slim.

The good news for Team USA is that no matter how many players drop out, they will still be heavy favorites to win the World Cup. Yes, sending midlevel NBA players seems embarrassing, but only one other country (Canada) can even send an entire 12-man roster of NBA players to international competitions, and the Canadians are likely to start Kelly Olynyk. Serbia seems like the biggest threat to Team USA’s title hopes, with Nikola Jokic in the middle and a squad filled with NBA-adjacent players. Greece has the reigning NBA MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, but little else. France boasts the back-to-back NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, and has 11 total NBA players, but most are fringe NBA players or developmental projects.

But I’m not sure that Team USA having a good chance of winning the World Cup is good news. The top-tier American teams of 1992 to 1996 and 2008 to 2012—the legend-laden squads that formed in response to American losses—are the best thing to ever happen to international basketball.

It is fascinating to watch all the best players in the world, side by side, in a competitive environment where they need to figure out how to work together. At its best, Team USA is an attempt to push the limits of basketball to see how good 12 players can be—and international basketball is an attempt by the rest of the world to catch the Americans. Right now, Team USA is just trying to see how untalented of a roster it can get away with. Either Team USA wins, establishing that its second-rate players are still better than anybody else’s best, or somebody else does, and the discussion becomes an indictment of America’s attrition rather than a celebration of the global growth of the sport.

As jingoistic as I get about international sports, I’d rather see the U.S. send its best team to an international basketball tournament and lose (which, to be fair, has never happened) than see the B-team win. There is nothing more boring than disinterested dominance, and when most of America’s best players sit at home and the team still wins, that’s international basketball.

I get why the big names sit out. These guys make up to $40 million per year, they all saw Paul George’s leg snap at a Team USA camp ahead of the 2014 World Cup, and they’re being asked to risk that for pride and the opportunity to win gold. Do you know how much gold they’d need to win for it to be worth $40 million? About a ton. (Seriously, gold is like $1,500 an ounce. Do the math.) But embarrassing international losses tend to motivate the NBA’s best into doing a bit of summer homework. And if Team USA keeps sending squads like this year’s World Cup team into international play, it will, eventually, lose. We’ve seen the cycle unfold before.

The question is, what part of the Team USA basketball cycle are we at? Are we at the part where an awkward, scrounged-together team gets embarrassed, generating a glorious rebirth of interest in international basketball? Or are we still in the third part, where a forgettable team scrapes together a gold-medal performance, continuing the status quo?

All I know is this: When the Olympics begin next year in Tokyo, it will be 16 years since the last Team USA Olympic basketball loss, which was 16 years after the previous Team USA basketball loss, which was 16 years before the previous Team USA basketball loss. Maybe it’s a coincidence, or maybe 16 years is just how long it takes U.S. basketball stars to forget that it’s possible to lose on the world stage.