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The Philippines suffered from catastrophic flooding from last week’s assault by Tropical Storm Ketsana bringing death to at least 277. Most of the flooding problems were in and around Manila and Luzon but other parts of the country received very heavy rainfall. The armed forces of the Philippines are being mobilized as the island nation is now bracing for the impact of a much much stronger storm. Typhoon Parma is now forecast to strike the northern provinces of the Philippines by Friday. It is rapidly increasing in strength and is forecast to possibly become Super Typhoon Parma as it moves across the northeastern portion of the Philippines. At that time, winds are expected to be at 125 kts with gusts to 140 kts. That converts to maximum sustained winds of 145 mph with gusts to 160 mph. That would be equivalent to a category 4 hurricane. As of 12Z Oct 1, the storm had a very low central pressure of 933 mb.

On the one hand, these provinces are some distance from Manila and the storm was forecast to move relatively quickly. That would mean that the country has very little time to prepare. While the initial landfall is away from Manila and Luzon, the mountainous parts of the country will enhance the rain potential and mudslides will be problematic. What is troubling is that the latest forecast track has changed. Previously, the forecast suggested an even stronger typhoon brushing along the northeastern provinces before heading to Taiwan. The storm has encoutered some dry air intrusion and that is the reason for the lower forecast intensity. But, the steering has been altered and now the storm is expected to slow down and kinda wrap around the northern tip of the Philippines. Should this happen, rainfall throughout the northern half of the island nation will be quite extreme. Potentially, this could make a terrible disaster even worse. Further, if Typhoon Parma develops fully, it will be heading toward the maximum destructive potential sporting an emormous storm surge. I’m not certain of the topography of the shelf and coast but I would say a surge of 10-20 feet would not be out of the question.

WTPN33 PGTW 011500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

REMARKS:

011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.0E.

TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED AN AREA OF INCREASED

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH, CAUSING PARMA TO WEAKEN TO TYPHOON

STRENGTH. FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY REMAIN CONSISTENT, WITH

LANDFALL OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 48

AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AND NORTHERN SOUTH

CHINA SEA THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS

29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.

REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY

UPDATES.//

1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 016

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

011200Z — NEAR 13.1N 128.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 128.6E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z — 14.3N 126.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z — 15.6N 124.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

—

36 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z — 16.7N 123.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS

—

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

031200Z — 17.9N 122.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS

—

72 HRS, VALID AT:

041200Z — 19.2N 121.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS

—

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

—

96 HRS, VALID AT:

051200Z — 19.5N 120.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS

—

120 HRS, VALID AT:

061200Z — 19.4N 119.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WDPN33 PGTW 011500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR

16//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS

TO A TYPHOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES (AS

SEEN IN THE 011200Z SOUNDING FROM RPMT) IN THE MID LEVELS HAS CAUSED

EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, LOWERING DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO 5.5 WITH RJTD REMAINING AT 7.0.

THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR (20 T0 30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE

NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS CAUSED A LOSS OF DEEP

CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER

VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING

TO RECOVER. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN

PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN LUZON.

3. FORECAST REASONING

A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE

THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.

B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE

NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE

CROSSING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL

RECOVER INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO

SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE OUTLIERS OF THE

GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS MODELS. GFDN TAKES A MORE WESTERLY COURSE INTO

CENTRAL LUZON BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 48.

GFS AND JGSM NEITHER MAKE LANDFALL, WITH JGSM TURNING NORTH-

NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 12 AND ASSUMING A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AFTER

TAU 48. GFS TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 24, AND RECURVES

AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINING NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, TCLAPS, WBAR,

EGRR AND ECMWF) MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE BIFURCATING. WBAR

AND TCLAPS TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT, WHILE NOGAPS, EGRR

AND ECMWF TURN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT

CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN LUZON’S TOPOGRAPHY. ONCE IT

CROSSES INTO LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL REMAIN AT STRONG TYPHOON

INTENSITY. DURING THIS PERIOD, TYPHOON PARMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS

FORWARD MOTION AS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AND

POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) COMMENCES. AVAILABLE

NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 AS

DISCUSSED ABOVE. AFTER TAU 72 THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW, WITH

THIS FORECAST FAVORING THE NOGAPS, EGRR AND ECMWF SOLUTION OF A

TURN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR TY 19W

REMAINS COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TY 20W TO THE EAST

AND INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH (THE SOURCE

OF THE BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE).//

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