Mobile users can see a graphic breakdown of available parking here.

Years ago, St. Paul officials said there would be parking aplenty when the St. Paul Saints came marching in. The upcoming opening of the minor league team’s new CHS Field ballpark will bring with it more than 2,000 cars, analysts and Saints officials say.

Over the past month, city officials have offered the same assurances.

“Plenty of parking,” said Brad Meyer, spokesman for the city’s parks department, which owns the field.

“Plenty of parking,” said Hilary Holmes, a planner with city’s Department of Planning and Economic Development.

But many residents of the area — once touted for its increasingly occupied highrises, a residential revolution that would reshape and strengthen the city from within — worry they’ve heard it all before.

Years ago, they remember city officials flashing old, outdated maps showing parking plans that were hopelessly optimistic.

A Pioneer Press accounting of Lowertown’s lots, public and private, reveals that yes — while “plenty” is definitely pushing it — there will be just enough parking in Lowertown to accommodate Saints fans and employees, provided no other large events are going on.

Venture a couple of extra blocks into the downtown’s office core — a six-block walk to the stadium — and the problem becomes moot: Several large lots sit almost entirely vacant in the evenings.

Untested promises about light rail notwithstanding, Saints fans wanting to drive to games are likely to find a spot within a 10-minute hike of the stadium.

But many Lowertown residents remain nervous about their all-but-inevitable lifestyle change. Street parking is already snapped up five minutes after 5 p.m. The costs of parking contracts have skyrocketed over the past year, in the shadow of the stadium’s construction. One large lot was torn down to make way for home plate. Rather than take on new evening contracts, some facility lot owners are taking a wait-and-see approach until this whole stadium thing shakes out.

Others complain the city is putting the Saints’ interests ahead of theirs: One condo association received an $800,000 settlement from the city after losing their lot entirely. Several members bought parking at the nearby Farmers’ Market lot, only to get a letter saying they would be kicked out again — their contracts voided to accommodate, in part, Saints suite ticket holders.

After a recent outcry, the city notes it’s now negotiating with those residents — to park on days the Saints aren’t playing.

There’s one thing most parties agree on: Lowertown, like it or not, is starting to acquire a big-city feel.

A TIGHT FIT ON GAME DAYS

First, the numbers: Saints and city officials have long estimated a 3:1 ratio of fans to cars, based on past attendance. Thus, a 7,000 capacity game at the new CHS Field equates to roughly 2,300 cars. Saints officials say there are roughly 150 employees as well.

Yes, there are variables. How many will use light rail instead? How many will bike? How many living and working downtown — already parked — will simply walk to the game? To date, those totals remain untested.

The accounting of the lots in Lowertown, based on numbers provided by individual lot owners, shows a conservative estimate of slightly more than 2,600 available evening spaces in Lowertown, with roughly 360 of those under negotiation between the Saints and other parties as of last week. Those totals don’t include street parking (largely taken in the evenings), and a smattering of tiny lots in the area.

The most spacious option — the Lowertown Ramp at 316 Jackson St., with an estimated 800 available spaces — is roughly four blocks from the field. A Pioneer Press reporter walked through the ramp multiple times in the evening to find it overwhelmingly vacant.

Based on a recent, though preliminary, analysis, the city’s Department of Planning and Economic Development estimated there are 3,000 open spaces in Lowertown, with a 70 percent vacancy rate in the evening. That’s 2,100 spaces.

Go three blocks past Lowertown’s borders, and you encompass the Capital City Plaza, Kellogg Square, the Victory and Lawson ramps, and the U.S. Bank and Alliance Bank buildings, all with hundreds of additional spaces, and largely empty in the evenings.

The bottom line: If Saints fans drive to Lowertown alone, it will be a tight, and likely uncomfortable, fit. If they are willing to hike a couple of extra blocks, or — as city officials hope — take light rail, it won’t be.

RESIDENTS CONCERNED

Despite assurances by the city, many Lowertown residents still are nervous, and some parking lot owners remain in a holding pattern.

“I think it’s a safe statement that everybody is unsure what’s going to happen,” said Jack Hoeschler, an attorney representing D Oren B LLC, owner of the Dart parking space on the eastern border of the stadium. “In a year or two, things will likely shake out.”

Steve Johnson, property manager of the 208-space “Stadium Ramp” at 255 E. Sixth St., says he’s getting a lot of calls from Lowertown residents looking for monthly contracts.

But he’s held firm at 45 contracts and now has resorted to a waiting list. With the stadium, he says, “we really don’t how that’s going to play.”

Numerous interviews with Lowertown residents and property managers reveal the same uncertainty.

“The residents that have lived down here are very concerned,” said Nikki Longie, property manager of Lowertown Commons and the Parkside apartments, which together are home to about 300 Lowertown residents. “They (city officials) are cutting it really close.”

Back when the new Saints stadium was slated for Lowertown, some residents expressed concerns about parking. In a letter to constituents in April 2013, Mayor Chris Coleman said studies had shown time and again that there would be ample parking.

“We’ve asked several experts to examine the impact of the ballpark on Lowertown parking supply,” Coleman wrote. “In fact, a recent study shows there is as much as four times the amount of parking required to accommodate fans.”

He added that the new light rail would bring “thousands of fans to the ballpark,” though he didn’t give a timeframe for those thousands.

A parking committee — under the auspices of CapitolRiver Council — was created, disbanded and created again to look into parking issues. Those attending the current committee’s meetings remember the numbers city officials put forward years ago.

“It turned out their numbers were many years old. … Some significant percentage of these maps showed lots that were out of business,” said Tom Erickson, who now chairs the parking committee and owns the Allen Building, a residential space a block from the stadium. “They really didn’t have an idea as to what the parking situation was really like.”

City officials dispute that: Director of planning and economic development Jonathan Sage-Martinson said a 2013 environmental assessment showed 6,842 spaces within six blocks, with all of those spaces still valid.

Still, Sage-Martinson said he wasn’t around at the time and wasn’t sure whether that was the map presented to residents.

People grew more concerned when the Gillette Building — and its nearly 400 surface spaces — was torn down to make room for the stadium’s home plate.

To get a grip on the downtown parking situation, the city in August 2014 hired Nelson/Nygaard, a Boston-based transportation consultant, for $90,000. Its report is expected to come out next week.

Some question the usefulness of a parking study contracted in the midst of a debate over CHS Field’s effect on St. Paul and released less than a month before the Saints’ opening day.

“It’s so late now, what difference does it make?” said downtown building owner John Mannillo, who frequently attends the parking committee meetings.

Sage-Martinson said a previous study had been done on the stadium issue alone — showing results similar to the 2013 assessment — and the upcoming study was meant to address both short and long-term parking issues for all of downtown, stadium included.

“It (the Saints’ arrival) will be an interesting experience,” said Ron Nelson, president of the Market House condo association, a Lowertown building adjacent to the ballpark that until recently had been embroiled in a legal battle with the city over parking.

“There’s certainly much concern in the neighborhood over it. I’d like to try to keep happy thoughts over it. … But I anticipate actually the first year being kind of painful.”

Longie noted that many of her residents have been put on a waiting list at the nearby Union Depot lots.

“We are begging them to give spots,” she said.

Jean Krueger, Ramsey County’s real estate manager, confirmed that the county was holding the rest of the spaces to allow for Lowertown event parking.

Is it a matter of expectations? Some say that for a city St. Paul’s size, residents should start getting used to these types of issues.

“Nobody in St. Paul likes to walk. … If they can’t pull up right next to the restaurant, they’re not happy,” said developer Dave Brooks, who owns the Alliance Bank Center at 55 E. Fifth St. “St. Paul has just got to get in a different mindset.”

The prices at Brooks’ ramp are indicative of others in the area: Over the past 18 months, monthly contracts have gone from $75 to $150. Nelson, the Market House president, is hunting for a new space. “I mean, I can’t blame anybody for charging what the market will bear; it’s just painful to experience it,” he said.

TEMPEST IN A PARKING LOT

The best recent example of the balancing act among the city, Saints and Lowertown residents was on display at this month’s meeting of the CapitolRiver Council’s parking committee.

A heated debate erupted over a small, 120-space lot — at the Farmers’ Market — directly in front of the stadium’s downtown entrance.

Several residents of the nearby Market House, who lost their lot to CHS Field’s construction, were upset. Months ago, they received an $800,000 settlement from the city — $9,000 apiece to cover the prices paid for their spaces, with the remainder going to the condo association for maintenance or upgrades to the building.

But they still needed a place to park. A few retained monthly evening contracts at the Farmers’ Market lot.

In February, they received a letter saying they would have to vacate by May 1. The spaces would have to be made available for Saints games.

Particularly irritating to attendees was the fact that 50 of the spaces would be reserved for Saints ticket holders and suite owners.

“Why make it more convenient for box holders than people who live downtown?” one resident asked city officials.

Jack Gerten, who manages the Farmers’ Market for the city, said he was trying to balance the needs of residents, potential area business patrons and the Saints.

“Lowertown’s coming alive, but unfortunately, there’s consequences,” Gerten said.

City parking manager Gary Grabko added: “The development happening, private and public, has totally changed the parking situation … especially in Lowertown. That’s the reality of the problem.”

It wasn’t enough.

Market House resident Matt Gross asked repeatedly why the condo building’s tenants, as well as others in the area, couldn’t keep their contracts.

“The Saints want preferential parking for ticket holders,” Grabko said.

In the audience, building owner Mannillo leaned over to Saints lobbyist Julian Loscalzo.

“They’re throwing you under the bus,” Mannillo muttered.

“Yeah, I know,” Loscalzo replied.

Minutes later, Loscalzo braved the crowd, frequently raising his hands in a placating manner.

Pressed repeatedly by Gross as to why the Saints didn’t “let” residents keep the lot, Loscalzo said, “If the city should decide not to lease that space, we would find another place to park,” though he added, “We would prefer to be there.”

Pressed again, Loscalzo concluded, “We’re not without sin on this one.”

Grabko said the city was under negotiations for a cheaper monthly contract — one that allowed residents to stay in the lot, except for Saints games.

After some debate, those at the meeting voted to remove a paragraph from a resolution calling the city “tyrannical” in its dealings with residents.

Asked for comment several days after the meeting, Sage-Martinson said: “The Farmers’ Market is primarily an event space. … The numbers of events now has expanded.

“Clearly for us, having this ballpark downtown is an economic tool for downtown, and we want it to be successful as an economic tool for downtown,” he added.

Regardless of the tension and uncertainty and the complaints about process, most Lowertown residents interviewed for this report said they were excited by the Saints’ arrival.

“When you’re used to something, it’s a lot harder to go backwards. You kind of get spoiled over here,” Lowertown Commons property manager Longie said. “We are excited about the happenings, about the Saints being a part of the neighborhood, bringing more life to the neighborhood.

“We just want to make sure the city is covering their bases, and they are aware there is a parking problem.”

Tad Vezner can be reached at 651-228-5461 or follow him on Twitter @SPnoir.