Disclaimer:

Texas fans who can’t stand the idea of getting their hopes up - out of fear of having them trampled again after seven straight years of fumbling around in irrelevance - either stop reading now … or go ahead, get those hopes up.

If this prediction is off, it won’t be by much.

As long as Texas stays healthy at QB, on the O-line and D-line, the Longhorns will go 12-1 this season, including a Big 12 title game victory over Oklahoma State that will send the Longhorns into the College Football Playoff.

I’m betting on Tom Herman and his staff the same way Herman has bet on himself, finding success (and success early) at every stop he’s made as a coach: Sam Houston State, Texas State, Rice, Iowa State, Ohio State and as the head coach at Houston.

The Longhorns will beat Maryland and San Jose State before announcing their arrival under Herman with an upset of USC in Los Angeles on Sept. 16.

Already a 12.5-point underdog in Vegas to the Trojans, the Texas coaching staff will benefit from USC facing Stanford on Sept. 9.

The Cardinal are loaded with 16 returning starters from a 10-win team that beat USC 27-10 last season.

Everyone is blown away by USC redshirt sophomore QB Sam Darnold - and rightfully so - after his 31 TDs, 8 INTs and nine-game winning streak to end last season, including a wild, 52-49 win over Penn State in the Rose Bowl.

But the Trojans lost their top two receivers, two starting tackles and three of their top six tacklers, including do-it-all CB Adoree Jackson, USC’s INT leader (5) and return specialist (4 TDs in 2016).

If USC struggles at all with so many Top 5 expectations - the Trojans will be exposed by Stanford, and Texas’ coaches will go to town on that film.

And let’s say, as of right now, Texas has USC’s number in meetings in Los Angeles. Hey, Live The Dream!

After beating USC, the Longhorns would then have 10 days - because of a bye Sept. 23 - to hear about how great they are as well as a likely rise toward the Top 10 before playing at Iowa State on Thursday, Sept. 28.

That game in Ames has banana-in-the-tailpipe written all over it, because Iowa State is picked by most to be battling Kansas for last in the Big 12 this season. But Iowa State has made life miserable for Texas in UT's last two trips to Ames - a 31-30 escape in 2013 and a 24-0 loss in 2015.

And Herman’s teams have shown a penchant to beat the big dogs (Herman is 6-0 vs the AP Top 25 as a head coach) while finding ways to lose against double-digit underdogs on the road.

Herman’s four losses as a head coach at Houston came on the road against teams the Cougars were favored to beat by an average of 13.8 points (at UConn +10 in 2015; at Navy +17, at SMU +22 and at Memphis +6 in 2016).

But Herman, the offensive coordinator at Iowa State under Paul Rhoads from 2009-11, knows how night games in Ames can be tricky. Texas will escape with a closer-than-you-think victory.

Then comes the gauntlet of a home game against Kansas State, OU in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, followed by a visit to Austin by Oklahoma State.

Kansas State senior Jesse Ertz is back to run Bill Snyder’s befuddling, crash-test-dummy QB run game with leading WR Byron Pringle among eight total starters back on offense.

A K-State defense that gave up only 22.3 points per game last year has some big holes to fill after losing leading tackler Elijah Lee and sack leader Jordan Willis.

In the end, I think Todd Orlando takes away the run, and the Texas offense scores enough points in Austin to beat the Purple Wizard.

Then comes the hype and hysteria that will accompany the Red River Shootout. Herman vs Lincoln Riley. The next-generation coaches whose success or failure will shape how the Big 12 is perceived for years.

Let me say, there was no bigger apologist for Bob Stoops than myself. I’ve said he was the best defensive-minded head coach at bringing in innovative offensive coordinators in college football the past 18 years. The culture Stoops established led to more Big 12 titles (10) than losses at home (9) in 18 years.

I just think Stoops’ culture takes a step back under Riley, who didn’t get to pick his own defensive coordinator, inheriting Mike Stoops.

Throw in big question marks at RB, WR and in the front seven on defense (who replaces leading tackler LB Jordan Evans?), and I can see OU losing three or four games this season. Texas pulls away for a Red River Shootout win in the Cotton Bowl.

The Big 12 Game Of The Year then takes center stage Oct. 21 at DKR, when what should be an undefeated Oklahoma State faces off against what I’m predicting will be an undefeated Texas. It will likely be a Top 5 showdown. I think a veteran Texas team - swelling with confidence at that point and playing at home - wins this one in a shootout to go 7-0.

Texas overpowers a depth-challenged Baylor team in Waco on Oct. 28 to go 8-0 and then goes on the road to TCU Nov. 4.

The Horned Frogs have owned the players on the Texas roster the past three years, outscoring UT 129-26 in that span. And a second-straight road game for Texas sets up potential for a funk that Gary Patterson’s team takes advantage of - in an overtime win - that drops Texas to 8-1.

UT then closes the final three games of the season against Kansas, at West Virginia and home against Texas Tech to finish 11-1, earning a rematch with 11-1 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game at Jerryworld on Dec. 2.

I think Texas wins the rematch in a more decisive outcome than the regular-season meeting in Austin, sending a 12-1 Texas into the College Football Playoff.

My conclusion is not based on Herman helping win a national championship as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2014 with a semifinal win over Alabama led by third-string QB Cardale Jones.

It’s not based on Nick Saban flying Herman and his Houston staff to Tuscaloosa right after Herman took over the Cougars’ program so Saban could ask Herman, “What did you see on film?” (in Ohio State’s win over the Tide in the CFP).

It’s not based on Herman going 22-4 as a head coach at Houston with a perfect 6-0 record against the AP Top 25, including resounding wins over then-No. 9 Florida State, then-No. 3 Oklahoma and then-No. 3 Louisville.

It’s not based on Herman being a part of wild first-year success at his last three coaching stops: from 2-10 to 7-6 in his first year as OC under Paul Rhoads at Iowa State in 2009; from 6-7 to 12-0 in his first year as OC under Meyer at Ohio State in 2012; and from 8-5 to 13-1 in his first year as head coach at Houston in 2015.

It’s based on Herman constantly pushing himself, his staff and his players to outwit, outthink and outlast opponents with togetherness and physical play at the core of everything.

It’s based on Herman and Tim Beck overseeing an offense run by a decisive, laser-accurate sophomore quarterback in Shane Buechele with a versatile group of receivers and backs behind a talented offensive line finally considered a team strength (for the first time since 2006).

It’s based on defensive coordinator Todd Orlando coming up with game plans at Texas with a D full of pass rushers the same way he did at Houston, when UH shut down Florida State RB Dalvin Cook (19 carries for 33 yards in 2015), frustrated OU’s Heisman finalist QB Baker Mayfield (sacked 5 times, fumbled once) and flattened Louisville Heisman Trophy winning QB Lamar Jackson (sacked 11 times last season).

It’s based on Herman’s unrelenting focus on special teams.

“If you’re a starter, you’re a starter on special teams,” Herman said. “If you need a play off for rest, that will come on offense or defense. It will not come on special teams.”

It’s based on strength coach Yancy McKnight and his staff increasing players’ back squat an average of 70 pounds, giving the team strong legs that should translate in the fourth quarter of games.

It’s based on 35 of the 44 in last year’s two-deep returning this season with only eight of those being seniors. It’s based on the closeness Herman and Co. have created within that group - using everything from basic training mind games to hot breakfasts for winners in winter conditioning and runny, powdered eggs and burnt toast to the losers.

“Tom Herman has a blueprint for success that is proven, and he doesn’t waver,” said Texas safeties coach and special teams coordinator Craig Naivar, an assistant coach with Herman at Sam Houston State from 2001-04.

One former Texas player in the NFL told me, “Let’s see how they handle winning. Because they haven’t done that here lately, and under this coaching staff, they’re about to start winning - a lot.”