Poll: Will anti-Congress mood cause another 'wave' election?

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President Obama's job approval rating is 50% or higher in 16 states and D.C. Roll over each state to see how each rated Obama. The darker the shade of the state, the higher his overall approval rating. Source: Gallup

WASHINGTON  Another "wave" election that could dramatically change the capital's political makeup may be building, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

Only 24% of those surveyed say most members of Congress deserve re-election, the lowest percentage since Gallup began asking the question in 1991. Fifty-six percent say their own representative deserves another term, similar to the levels just before tumultuous elections in 1994, 2006 and 2010 that changed control of the House or Senate.

And a majority of Americans, 51%, say President Obama doesn't deserve re-election; 47% say he does. Obama bests an unnamed Republican presidential candidate by 49%-45%, though he remains below the 50% threshold.

"Is there substantial dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, with the way things are, with the people in charge? The answer to that is yes," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, who has written about the prospect of a fourth sweeping election in a row in which one party loses at least 20 House seats.

Less clear is whether voters are ready to blame one party or the other, another ingredient of a "wave." And Election Day is 15 months away, plenty of time for the political landscape to shift.

"These numbers don't say Obama is going to lose," he adds, "but as long as you have a majority of people who are disapproving and you have the president sitting only in the upper 40s, he's still at great risk."

In the GOP contest to challenge Obama, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney continues to lead the field, at 24%, but a potential candidate who hasn't entered the race yet is in second place.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is exploring a presidential campaign, ranks behind Romney at 17%. Texas Rep. Ron Paul is third at 14%, followed by Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 13%.

No other contender breaks into double digits.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is at 7%, businessman Herman Cain 4%, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty 3%, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman 2% and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum 1%.

Perry narrowly leads Romney among Tea Party supporters, 23% to 22%. Bachmann claims 19% of backers of the Tea Party movement.

The poll of 1,319 adults Thursday through Sunday has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

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