Tonight’s election has been crushing for Labour: Boris Johnson has won the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher and dozens of the opposition’s MPs have been ousted.

Labour lost seats across the north and midlands: but when you delve into the figures, what is interesting is why.

There is a narrative that voters in these places abandoned Labour – that is only partly true.

Not all the results are in, but looking at the dozen or so Tory gains from Labour in Leave areas we have so far, there is almost always a pattern.

In 2017, Theresa May’s strategy in these seats nearly came off; the Tories surged. But she was stymied then by one thing – Labour also managed a 2017 surge of its own in these areas.

Election night 2019: In Pictures Show all 36 1 /36 Election night 2019: In Pictures Election night 2019: In Pictures First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, takes a selfie with some her newly elected MP's at the Glasgow count Getty Election night 2019: In Pictures Prime Minister Boris Johnson gestures after speaking AP Election night 2019: In Pictures A police officer breaks up a fight while Hayes and Harlington MP John McDonnell speaks Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Liberal Democrat candidate Luciana Berger reacts as she loses the Finchley & Golders Green constituency in north London PA Election night 2019: In Pictures DUP MP for Upper Bann Carla Lockhart with her son Charlie at Meadowbank Sports Arena as counting begins PA Election night 2019: In Pictures Labour's John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor speaks after winning his constituency seat following the count declaration at Brunel University in Uxbridge, London AP Election night 2019: In Pictures Liberal Democrats candidate for Edinburgh West, Christine Jardine retains her seat at the Royal Highland Centre, Edinburgh PA Election night 2019: In Pictures Theresa Villers after she was re-elected as MP for Chipping Barnet at Allainz Park, London in the 2019 General Election. PA Photo. Picture date: Friday December 13, 2019. See PA story POLITICS Election. Photo credit should read: Jacob King/PA Wire Jacob King PA Election night 2019: In Pictures Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon takes a photo with party members at the SEC Centre in Glasgow after the declaration in her constituency in the 2019 general election, Friday Dec. 13, 2019. An exit poll in Britain's election projects that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party likely will win a majority of seats in Parliament. That outcome would allow Johnson to fulfil his plan to take the U.K. out of the European Union next month. (AP Photo/Scott Heppell) Scott Heppell AP Election night 2019: In Pictures The DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly reacts to losing the Belfast South seat at the Titanic exhibition centre, Belfast, for the 2019 General Election. PA Photo. Picture date: Friday December 13, 2019. See PA story POLITICS Election. Photo credit should read: Liam McBurney/PA Wire Liam McBurney PA Election night 2019: In Pictures TOPSHOT - Carrie Symonds, partner of Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative leader Boris Johnson, holds their dog, a Jack Russell-cross named Dilyn, as she arrives at the count centre in Uxbridge, west London, on December 13, 2019 while votes were counted as part of the UK general election. - Prime Minister Boris Johnson's ruling party appeared on course for a sweeping victory in Thursday's snap election, an exit poll showed, paving the way for Britain to leave the EU next month after years of political deadlock. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP) (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images) OLI SCARFF AFP via Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures TOPSHOT - Party activists keep an eye on proceedings as ballot papers are sorted at the count centre in Bishopbriggs, north of Glasgow on December 12, 2019. - Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on course for a decisive majority, exit polls indicated after voting closed in Britain's general election on Thursday, paving the way for Brexit. (Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP) (Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images) PAUL ELLIS AFP via Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures DUP leader Arlene Foster watches on as Sinn Fein candidate John Finucane is declared the winner of the north Belfast seat over DUP candidate Nigel Dodds in the Belfast count centre at the Titanic Exhibition centre on December 13, 2019 in Belfast, United Kingdom. The current Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the first UK winter election for nearly a century in an attempt to gain a working majority to break the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit. The election results from across the country are being counted and an overall result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning. Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Ballots in a tray labelled Jo Swinson, Liberal Democrats candidate for East Dunbartonshire, are seen at a counting centre for Britain's general election in Bishopbriggs, Britain REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures Sinn Fein's John Finucane, the winning candidate in the Belfast North seat, with Party Vice President Michelle O'Neill and President Mary Lou McDonald, celebrates at the count centre, Titanic Quarter, Belfast, Northern Ireland REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon smiles as she arrives at the SEC Centre in Glasgow for the declaration in her constituency in the 2019 general election, Friday Dec. 13, 2019. An exit poll in Britain's election projects that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party likely will win a majority of seats in Parliament. That outcome would allow Johnson to fulfil his plan to take the U.K. out of the European Union next month. AP Election night 2019: In Pictures Conservative Party MP Dominic Raab being congratulated by Baron Badger after being re-elected to serve the constituency of Esher and Walton at Sandown Park Racecourse in Surrey at the 2019 General Election. PA Election night 2019: In Pictures Conservative Party parliamentary candidate Jacob Rees-Mogg makes his way to the stage at the Sports Training Village, University of Bath, on December 13, 2019 in Bath, England. The current Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the first UK winter election for nearly a century in an attempt to gain a working majority to break the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit. The election results from across the country are being counted overnight and an overall result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning. Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Britain's Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson speaks on stage after losing her seat at the East Dunbartonshire count centre in Bishopbriggs, north of Glasgow, on December 13, 2019 after votes were counted as part of the UK general election. AFP via Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Bobby Smith, a political and fathers' rights activist and founder and leader of the 'Give Me Back Elmo' party, left, and Independent candidate Count Binface stand either side of Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson wait for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency count declaration at Brunel University in Uxbridge, London, Friday AP Election night 2019: In Pictures Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, with wife Laura Alvarez, talks to workers as he arrives for the count at Sobell Leisure Centre for the Islington North and South constituencies for the 2019 General Election. PA Election night 2019: In Pictures Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party, visits the vote count in his Islington North constituency on December 12, 2019 in London, England. Corbyn, who has held the Islington North seat since 1983, is expected to step down as leader if his party is dealt a decisive defeat by the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The Prime Minister called the first UK winter election for nearly a century in an attempt to gain a working majority to break the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit. The election results from across the country are being counted overnight and an overall result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning. Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Labour Party candidate Sharon Hodgson speaks after is announced as the winner for the constituency of Washington and Sunderland West at a counting centre for Britain's general election in Sunderland, Britain REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn arriving for the count at Sobell Leisure Centre for the Islington North and South constituencies for the 2019 General Election. PA Election night 2019: In Pictures Labour candidate for Walthamstow Stella Creasy carries her baby daughter as she speaks after winning in Britain's general election in Waltham Forest Town Hall, Walthamstow, Britain REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures The first ballot boxes for Belfast North are brought into the count centre in Belfast on December 12, 2019 to be counted for the UK general election. - Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on course for a decisive majority, exit polls indicated after voting closed in Britain's general election on Thursday, paving the way for Brexit AFP via Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Independent, Count Binface poses for a photograph as he waits for the results in the count centre in Uxbridge, where Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative leader Boris Johnson hopes to hold his seat, in west London, on December 12, 2019. - Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on course for a decisive majority, exit polls indicated after voting closed in Britain's general election on Thursday, paving the way for Brexit. AFP via Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Ballot boxes are emptied during the count at Northumbria University's Sports Central in Newcastle for the 2019 General Election PA Election night 2019: In Pictures Ballots are tallied at a counting centre for Britain's general election in Brighton, Britain REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures Ballots arrive at a counting centre for Britain's general election in Esher, Britain REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures General Election 2019 - Election count at Meadowbank Sports Arena, Magherafelt for Newry & Armagh, South Antrim, North Antrim, Upper Bann, East Londonderry, Foyle, Lagan Valley and Mid Ulster. Election night 2019: In Pictures A woman wears a rosette with the name of independent candidate Joe Bousfield on it as ballots are tallied at a counting centre for Britain's general election in Hartlepool, Britain REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures An exit poll from Thursday's election is projected onto Broadcasting House in London, Britain, December Jeff Overs/BBC via REUTERS Election night 2019: In Pictures The broadcaster's exit poll results projected on the outside of the BBC building in London shows Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party predicted to win 368 seats and a majority (L) and Jeremy Corbyn's opposition Labour Party to win 191 seats, as the ballots begin to be counted in the general election on December 12, 2019 AFP via Getty Images Election night 2019: In Pictures Ballot boxes are opened at Meadowbank Sports Arena in Magherafelt, Co Londonderry, as counting begins 2019 General Election. 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Darlington is a typical example of this: the Tories jumped from just 14,479 votes in 2015 to 19,401 votes in 2017 – enough to have taken the seat in 2010 or 2015. But because Labour also jumped from 17,637 votes in 2015 to 22,681 in 2017, Labour held firm. This was higher than Labour’s votes in 2005 or 2001.

What happened in Darlington in 2019 is that Labour’s 2017 bump unravelled: they were back down to 17,607, about what they won in 2015 and higher than 2010. The Tories went up a bit, to 20,901, but the victory was delivered by a combination of Labour’s 2017 bounce unravelling and the Tories sustaining their big 2017 gains. What has not happened is vast numbers of voters abandoning Labour in any unprecedented historic scale.

You can see similar patterns in seats all over England and Wales: in Leigh, Labour won more votes in 2017 than in any election since 1997, but this unravelled in 2019 and a Tory surge of 5,000 votes took the seat off them. In Vale of Clwyd, another Tory gain, Labour’s 2019 result was broadly comparable to 2001 and higher than any other election since, excepting 2017. But the Tories put on 3,000 votes in 2017, which they, unlike Labour, kept in 2019.

Similar patterns emerge in Stockton South, Bishop Auckland, Bolton North East, North West Durham, and many other places: the story is one of a Tory surge, often sustained from an initial one in 2017, rather than a complete Labour collapse of anything other than extra voters gained in 2017. In some cases, the Labour share is marginally lower than the historic average since 1997, but this is not a defining factor: in most places it is more or less the same. What’s changed is the Tories are well up.

If we look at the overall vote shares of the parties, this is actually fairly obvious. Labour seems to be heading for around 33 per cent of the vote – not far down on what it won in 2005 when it won a majority (35 per cent) and better than it won in 2010 and 2015, but lower than 2017. But Boris Johnson’s Tories appear to be on course for a historically huge share of the vote.

There are some implications of this. One is that the idea that voters have somehow historically “abandoned Labour” in its traditional heartlands – any more than they did in 2005, 2010, or 2015 –is not really correct. Rather, in most cases, a temporary boost that Jeremy Corbyn won in 2017 has unwound. More research will be needed to understand better why this happened in 2019 compared to 2017 – it may have been that negative stories about Jeremy Corbyn stuck more. But the fact that these losses are overwhelmingly in Leave areas, while Remain areas stood firm or even were added to Labour’s collection, suggests there is some kind of Brexit connection. Labour went into the election promising another referendum and the Tories hammered home the message that the party wanted to “block Brexit”.