Wave goodbye to the nine to five, and say hello to virtual enterprise

Within a decade millions of workers will be at home juggling their careers with caring for children and older relatives, Britain's leading management institute forecast yesterday.

Dreams of a future when technological advances would liberate us from the daily drudge and allow more time for leisure appear to be fading, with futurologists predicting less talk about "work-life balance" and more about "work-life integration".

A report on the nature of employment in 2018 predicts an exodus from the traditional workplace caused partly by environmental pressure to reduce the carbon footprint of commuting and partly by the demographic pressure of an ageing population, with fewer employees able to avoid looking after older relatives, leading to a blurring of boundaries between family and career.

In a list of scenarios drawn up by the Chartered Management Institute and launched at a seminar in London yesterday by Sir John Sunderland, chairman of Cadbury Schweppes, companies were warned to prepare for a range of more remote possibilities, including a world under cyber attack, the use of holograms for communication between staff, and controlling employee behaviour by implanting microchips in their brains. More probable scenarios included a polarisation of businesses, with large corporations consolidating global control and becoming more powerful than the governments of some big countries.

But there would also be a proliferation of "virtual" companies, often small community-based enterprises without conventional business premises.

These enterprises would have to compete for employees, who will become more footloose and less inclined to work for an organisation that does not allow individuals to tailor the working day to meet their personal requirements. "Organisations will have to address the growing power of the employee," the report said.

Whether or not workers enjoy this extra flexibility, they will not be allowed to cling to traditional patterns of employment. "On all levels there will be a move towards upskilling and multi-skilling ... Employees will be required to be more flexible with regard to organisational needs," the report said.

This may mean workers abandoning traditional shifts. People may work from home on assignments during specific time slots, or be available on call when work needs to be done.

They will communicate by high-speed broadband, perhaps supplemented by hologram technology permitting virtual presence at meetings.

Many talented people would become "multi-employed", some working for a day or two a week in "third place locations" outside their organisations or home office.

As work becomes more project-based, people will need to use specialised services to market themselves for individual ad hoc projects.

Managers will have to create multicultural work teams, operating remotely, combining the skills of older and younger workers. As social changes from the past 30 years take root, women will move into higher management positions. Emotional intelligence and the ability to appreciate people's values as much as their technical competencies will be seen by recruiters as increasingly important.

Futurologists may have predicted some of these changes, but the institute said its report was the first attempt by captains of industry and commerce to predict how their organisations may look 10 years in the future.

It said collaborative working would become so important that companies should consider abolishing positions and job titles. "Instead each employee should be seen as a valuable resource, to be employed according to specific organisational needs."

Companies would come to regard wisdom as a valuable resource. Some would try to nurture an organisational memory by arranging rituals and storytelling, and listening to the accounts of long-term employees.

The institute put findings from the report to more than 1,000 senior executives. It found 74% expected "virtual teams of employees", working at a distance from each other, to become the norm by 2018.

About 64% thought talented people would become "multi-employed," 59% said job hopping would be commonplace and 56% said most routine tasks would be automated.

Two-thirds of the executives expected global corporations to exert more influence than governments. Almost as many forecast an increase in customer participation in business decisions and the creation of products with longer life cycles to meet environmental concerns. There was less support for the futurologists' technological projections. Only 31% expected to communicate with staff by hologram and 12% thought companies would enhance the capabilities of staff by implanting microchips in their brains.

Mary Chapman, the institute's chief executive, said: "Looking ahead 10 years, it is clear that the successful organisations will be those who can do more than embrace change - they will anticipate, identify and drive it ...

"A greater degree of emotional intelligence will be required by managers and leaders so they can understand how people work and their likely reaction to change. They will also need to shift from today's input-driven approach to a focus on output, achievement and a better integration between work and personal lives."

Brave new world: Surprise scenarios for the future

Businesses are urged to prepare for 16 "surprise scenarios" that could change their future. The report acknowledges these may not be the most accurate predictions of the world in 2018, but says businesses should be ready for possibilities including:

A brain-enhanced world

By 2018, businesses will routinely use microchips to enhance employees' abilities. Chips will be implanted in brains to enhance memory or knowledge, but may also monitor and control behaviour. Companies should think about the use and misuse of such technologies.

A world ruled by employees

Successful organisations will realise their strength lies in their workforce. Shareholders will lose their right to all the profits and companies will hand power to employees. Many organisations will be designed as "guilds" whose mission is to support employees. "This development may spread slowly or suddenly through angry protest," the institute said. Managers should prepare by rethinking business and "managing power structures prudently".

A world under cyber attack

Terrorists will attack the internet and computer systems, halting work globally with a virus that diffuses through corporate firewalls, deleting huge quantities of business data. Safety measures turn out to be insufficient - businesses lose organisational memories, intangible assets and intellectual property. The institute said companies should prepare red-alert detection systems to raise a "virtual dam" against attack. Multiple back-ups in intellectual property banks are recommended.

A world run by robots

Robots with artificial intelligence will be put into management positions. They will not necessary have heads and arms. Software decision-making - already used in financial management - will increase dependence on systems. "Regular updates on such developments and building up a knowledge base about the use and misuse of them may be an appropriate precaution," the institute said.

A world without the rat race

Young people will refuse "meaningless jobs" on a mass scale. They will choose ethical careers and not the rat race. The institute said: "This may tiptoe into the world of work, or it may ... explode into an angry protest movement against the establishment." Managers might avert the revolution by sharing power with the younger generation.