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There’s another message in the numbers shift. The Conservatives, more or less, seem to be weathering their hard times. But is there a drift, a falling away, from Conservatives? I think there is. And it is not because of the obvious scandals, or the campaign of determined animosity towards Harper in particular that has been a part of the political landscape since he won the Prime Minister’s office. It’s not their enemies that have worked the change. It’s — shall I say — an intimate dynamic.

Some Conservative voters are tired of their own party and its leader. Not because of the headline stories or the ruckus of the day, such as the Senate affair or the terror legislation, or the one-off spikes of controversy like Omar Khadr. These voters are still content with Harper’s stewardship, and they certainly think it better than what the Liberals or NDP would offer. But they are feeling let down. Let down by someone they still — even reluctantly — admire for at least some of his leadership.

It is because he really doesn’t give them much, and I’m not talking about programs and policies. It is the feeling that in a way he’s aloof from his own battles. That only too rarely does he intercede in debate, or in the Commons or outside articulate his side of the argument. He is at least as good a public speaker as either Mulcair or Trudeau, and many argue a better one. But only rarely does he call on this ability, evidently preferring, it seems, to let the arguments about him or his policies pass by unchallenged, or at most offer a brusque pushback or some dismissive quip (“See what happens when some people go off script?”) of dubious cleverness but obvious (and unattractive) disdain.