Britain stands to lose around half a billion pounds of annual European science funding in the event of a no-deal Brexit, jeopardising research into cancer and other health treatments, new figures reveal.

The UK receives €1.28bn (£1.15bn) every year from Horizon 2020, the EU’s funding programme for science and innovation.

The nation would lose around 45 per cent of the cash, and its ability to influence key European projects, in a no-deal scenario, according to analysis by the Scientists for EU group.

The government had previously attempted to reassure scientists by claiming they would still have access to EU funding under ‘third country’ rules, in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

But following the publication this week of their plans for a no-deal Brexit, the government has updated advice to scientists to concede funding from the EU would be lost.

“Third country participation does not extend to some Horizon 2020 calls”, the advice now reads.

That line updated a report published at the beginning of August which said: “In a no-deal scenario, UK researchers and businesses would be able to apply to, and participate in all those Horizon 2020 calls open to third country participants from the date of exit.”

Without full membership of Horizon 2020, the UK would lose access to money from the European Research Council (ERC), Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) and SME Instrument grants, which are not available to “third countries”.

The revelation comes after leading scientists voiced concerns about a chaotic exit from the EU and declared their support for The Independent’s Final Say campaign, calling for a referendum on the final Brexit deal.

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The highly prestigious ERC and MSCA make up the biggest chunk of funding from the EU, and losing them would be a major hit to the UK’s scientific community.

Professor Lisa Bortolotti, of the University of Birmingham, and whose mental health research spans psychology, psychiatry and philosophy, said that without the programmes, “projects like mine could not be pursued in the UK”.

“Losing ERC funding is mad,” she added.

Olivier Stephan, who coordinates grants at the Francis Crick Institute, said the ERC drives some of the country’s most important science, citing its work fighting cancer.

While, he said, the institute was working on the basis ongoing grants are safe, there are fears for the future of British scientists and the country’s ability to attract foreign talent.

On top of a hit to UK science, the SME Instrument programme provides £143 million to small, innovative UK businesses, funding around 17 per cent of their research and development.

The government has said it will step in to replace any lost funding if necessary, but the effects of third country status go deeper than monetary value, according to some experts.

“Throughout my career I have had many, many grants, but none as transformational as the ERC grants,” said Professor Carlos Frenk, a cosmologist at Durham University. “Access to these grants to a very large extent determines where the very best researchers in the world want to go.”

“In short, it’s a mess,” said Dr Mike Galsworthy, programme director at Scientists for EU.

Besides the “chilling effect” the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is having on grant applications and hiring in the sector, he noted people who received EU grants were having to register with the government “just in case”.

Dominic Raab: Government ready to deliver no-deal Brexit

“So it’s devastation if it does happen, and just lesser damage, red tape and waste if it doesn’t,” he said.

According to Scientists for EU, third country status would also mean UK researchers in European projects could no longer take leading roles, as the EU will not be willing to put them in charge of the money.

That is why Dame Anne Glover, president of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, says it is essential the government arrives at some kind of deal.

“If that doesn’t happen, there is a danger of us being a sort of lame duck, just looking at what the opportunities are and trying to become partners in research consortia without driving anything,” she said.

Despite assurances, Dame Anne said she felt “we are really no further forward” with understanding the status of science after Brexit.

“In March next year if there is no deal, the EU is not going to scrabble around to help researchers in the UK,” she said.

“There may be an accommodation reached for a period of time, but there will be a hiatus, and research does not work well with a hiatus.”

Professor Frenk added, unlike some of the predicted effects of a no-deal Brexit, the loss of scientific funds would not change the country overnight.