0-2. Again. It’s becoming almost a habit for the Saints to dig themselves a hole early in the season. For 3 of the past 4 years now, the Black and Gold have lost their first two games. This team is undoubtedly more talented than an 0-2 basement-dweller, but at this stage it’s difficult to truly know the extent to which they have underachieved to open 2015. The Saints have offered more questions than answers on the field so far this year.

Unfortunately for the Saints the schedule doesn’t offer any respite this week, with a tough road trip to Charlotte to face the NFC South Champion Panthers. We hammered home the importance of divisional games last week (before the Saints duly laid an egg against the Bucs). That result makes this weekend’s game against Carolina even more pivotal. The difference between 0-3 (0-2 in the division) and 1-2 (1-1 in the division) cannot be understated. Week 3 games don’t get much bigger than this.

Read on below for our New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers matchup preview, where we highlight 3 reasons why the Saints can beat the Panthers (and indeed 3 reasons why they can’t), finishing up with our summary “BoiLa’s take” on the matchup on either side of the football.

The BoiLa’s Snapshot – The Carolina Panthers (in two paragraphs or less): Carolina won back-to-back NFC South titles in 2013 and 2014, and have started a perfect 2-0 in 2015 on their quest for a hat-trick. Admittedly, the schedule Gods were somewhat kind to the Panthers this year, gifting them two soft AFC South opponents to open the season (@ JAX and vs HOU). A “chip shot” schedule perhaps, but to Carolina’s credit they duly converted without ever really breaking out of second gear. In theory, the Saints should give the Panthers their sternest examination to date this week. The Panthers road to victory in weeks 1 and 2 has been laid largely by their suffocating defense. Carolina have one of the best front 7s in the league, with a well-rounded stable of defensive linemen utilised in heavy rotation and an elite linebacking corps patrolling behind them. They will regularly stack the box, forcing teams into frequent “and long” situations. Indeed, the Panther D has held their opponents to just 26% on 3rd down so far this year – a key ingredient to their success. On the offensive side, we are of course more than familiar with Cam Newton. The Panther offense is a slightly different proposition this year, though, having lost #1 WR Kelvin Benjamin to a season-ending knee injury in Camp.

THE PANTHERS OFFENSE by the numbers: 2.5 – YPC for Jonathan Stewart on carries “between the tackles” in 2015. 24 – Number of rushes by Cam Newton in 2015. Highest amongst all QBs. 53 – Cam Newton’s pass completion % in 2015. 2nd lowest of all QBs. 6 – Drops by Panthers receivers so far in 2015. 4th highest in the NFL.

THE PANTHERS DEFENSE by the numbers : 26 – 3rd down conversion % of the Panthers’ opponents so far in 2015. 2nd lowest in the NFL. 13 – Average points per game of Carolina’s opponents so far in 2015. 2nd Lowest in the NFL. 197 – Rushing yards given up by the Panthers defense against the Saints in 2014. 31 – QB hurries by the Panthers D through their first two games this year.

3 REASONS WHY THE SAINTS WILL POUND THE PANTHERS

1. Saints defense should be at close to full strength (finally)

Positive soundings from Metairie so far this week regarding the health of not one, not two, but three key cogs on this Saints defense. All three of Jairus Byrd, Keenan Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe have been dressed out at practice this week. All three players will unquestionably slot straight into the starting lineup when healthy. Having any combination of them back would represent a big boost for this defense. The injury-hit Saints D has already shown flashes of improved play this year, and should surely only improve with the return of three big playmakers.

Our sense is that, barring a shock, the #Byrdwatch will continue for one more week in Charlotte. Keenan Lewis, unquestionably the Saints #1 CB, looks a better bet than Byrd to suit up this week. The impact of having “West Bank” back on the outside cannot be understated – and he’s about the closest thing to a “leader” that this secondary has.

For us, though, it is actually LB Dannell Ellerbe who would represent the most important returning player this week. Rookie Stephone Anthony has lacked a consistent partner alongside him in the middle so far this year, with the Saints spelling the ineffective David Hawthorne and the equally ineffective Ramon Humber at WLB. Ellerbe should be a significant upgrade at linebacker if he returns as expected, especially against a Panthers offense that demands strong linebacker play (heavy use of Jonathan Stewart, heavy use of zone-read plays, and heavy use of Greg Olsen).

2. Panthers O-Line has struggled in run blocking so far this year

For back to back weeks, the interior of the Saints defensive line has failed to “win” the battle in the trenches. Last week in particular, John Jenkins and Akiem Hicks were dominated in the running game, allowing the Bucs to gain easy yards up the gut. Over the first two weeks of the season, per PFF, the Saints have allowed Andre Ellington and Doug Martin to combine for 15 carries and 66 yards “between the tackles”. That’s comfortably over 4 YPC, and has played a big part in allowing both the Cards and the Bucs to set up manageable 2nd/3rd and short situations after strong first down gains.

This week, in theory, it looks like the Saints should have a little more joy in the trenches (at least against the run). Carolina’s interior offensive line has struggled mightily to open up running lanes for Jonathan Stewart so far in 2015. Per PFF, Stewart is averaging just 2.5 YPC “between the tackles”. It isn’t just a case of “big” Vince Wilfork and the powerhouse Houston line skewing the numbers in week 2, either. The Panthers run blocking was actually worse against the much-maligned Jags defense in week 1, with Stewart having 9 carries for just 15 yards up the gut.

It will be interesting to see how the Saints line-up to counter Stewart on obvious rushing downs this week. Akiem Hicks was unceremoniously benched in last week’s game for fast-improving rookie Bobby Richardson. We had flagged Richardson as a strong performer in weeks one and two, and Payton has singled #78 out for praise this week. It may be that Richardson is in line to see even greater playing time this week to try to shore up the Saints line, perhaps even breaking into the starting lineup. One thing is for sure though – John Jenkins simply has to play better at NT this week.

3. Panthers are weak at WR

The Saints secondary has faced two highly talented WR corps so far this year. The Cardinals (with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd). And the Bucs (with Mike Evans, Vince Jackson and Louis Murphy). The Panthers are, on paper at least, the “weakest” WR corps that the Saints have faced to date.

With danger-man Kelvin Benjamin sidelined, it is veteran Ted Ginn Jr that leads the Panthers receiving corps in 2015. Although Ginn is “highlight reel”-friendly, he is hardly a dominant #1 receiver, and has always had his struggles with drops. Indeed, Ginn already has 3 drops through the first 2 games of 2015 (only NYG’s Preston Parker has more). Corey “Philly” Brown lines up alongside Ginn on the outside, forming a duo for whom “speed” is the key (and some would say only) attribute. Much like Ginn, Brown can hardly be described as sure-handed. In the preseason alone, he dropped 2 sure TD passes, but has at least managed to avoid a regular season repeat to date.

The slot is usually reserved for reliable Jerricho Cotchery, but the former-Jet suffered an ankle injury against Houston last week and is considered doubtful for Sunday. If Cotchery misses out, long-striding 6’4 rookie Devin Funchess and former Alabama wideout Kevin Norwood will round out the Panther WR corps on Sunday. We will be disappointed if the Saints CBs, particularly with Keenan Lewis potentially returning, are unable to win the “one on one” match-ups on the outside this week against such a lightweight and inexperienced group.

3 REASONS WHY THE SAINTS WON’T POUND THE PANTHERS

1. The Saints O-Line is overmatched by the Panthers front 7

The Panthers group of defensive linemen is far superior to anything the Saints O-Line has faced so far this year. The trio of DT Kawann Short and DE’s Charles Johnson and Mario Addison combined for 24 sacks alone last year, and all three represent dangerous pass-rushing threats. Powerful DT Star Loutelei has participated in practice this week and looks set to return in some capacity on Sunday, albeit perhaps on a limited snap count. DT’s Dwan Edwards and Kyle Love and talented DE’s Kony Ealy and Wes Horton will also see rotational playing time.

In behind the strong defensive line, the Panthers boast one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL. The duo of Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis would start on almost every other team in the league. Rookie LB Shaq Thompson received rave reviews coming out of Washington, and has started the regular season well for Carolina. The Panthers D has 6 sacks already this year, has held opponents to just 3.6 YPC, and (according to PFF) has generated a staggering 31 QB hurries.

Whichever way you look at it, the Saints offensive line simply has to play better this week. A lot better. The plus side for the Saints is that they are highly familiar with this Carolina front 7. Zach Strief and Terron Armstead matched up on Johnson and Addison/Ealy with decent effect in the equivalent fixture at Bank of America Stadium last season, with Strief in particular absolutely stone-walling Charles Johnson on that occasion. The Panthers fared better in the Superdome two months later, of course, but were greatly assisted by an early Armstead injury which thrust flat-footed Bryce Harris into the lineup. Harris promptly gave up 8 QB hurries to the feasting Panthers in his ill-fated cameo.

The Saints are offered a glimmer of hope this week by the fact that Luke Kuechly is doubtful due to a concussion suffered in week 1. Solid but unspectacular back-up AJ Klein will deputise if Kuechly cannot go. Klein is no slouch, but he’s also no Luke Kuechly. The Black and Gold shouldn’t break out the champagne quite yet, though – Carolina played without Kuechly last week against Houston, and still held the Texans to just 61 yards on 23 carries.

2. The read option is likely to cause problems for the Saints D

Watching the tape of Carolina’s wins against Jacksonville and Houston, one thing that is clear is that the lack of true targets in the receiving game has caused difficulties for the Panther offense at times. Cam Newton‘s completion pct of just 53% is one of the worst in the league, with opponents keying in on TE Greg Olsen to take away Newton’s primary read on many plays. In response, Ron Rivera has given Newton greater freedom to make plays with his feet this year, in order to keep the opposing defense honest. And it has largely worked – Newton has carried 24 times (highest amongst QBs) for 111 yards (also highest amongst QBs).

The Saints’ play against “read option” style offenses was mixed last year. They largely did a good job of controlling and containing Newton in the game in Charlotte (where Newton rushed for only 43 yards and went 10/28 passing) and similarly of containing Colin Kaepernick the following week in the Superdome (just 24 yards rushing). However it was more a struggle for the Saints D when Carolina returned to New Orleans in December, with Newton rushing for 83 yards and a TD.

Although 2014 performance offers some clues, we need to bear in mind that it is a rather different looking Saints D that lines up against Newton this year. In 2014 OLB Parys Haralson was a key component of the defense against “read option” style offenses, using his veteran savvy largely to good effect on the edge. With Haralson no longer in the 53, they’ll need their young D to step up this week. Rookies Stephone Anthony and Hau’oli Kikaha and “in the box” safety Kenny Vaccaro will have a big part to play in the stopping zone-read plays – especially Kikaha, who the Panthers are likely to test early. Scouting reports on Kikaha flagged his ability to diagnose and defend against the read-option as a potential weakness. That said, those same scouting reports also suggested Kikaha would be nothing more than a situational pass-rusher in the NFL. His performance has far exceeded those reports to date, but his ability against zone-read plays remains untested. The Saints do at least have a more experienced alternative on the edge, in the form of talented athlete Kasim Edebali, if Kikaha struggles.

3. Drew Brees…

Obviously the key mainstream “storyline” in the run-up to this week’s game is Drew Brees and his rotator cuff. Brees was encouragingly a participant in practice on Thursday (albeit only “limited”), and all soundbites from Metairie have been positive since the initial scare-stories earlier in the week. The most encouraging sign for us at this stage is that Vegas seems to be banking on Brees playing. They are happily taking bets on the Panthers as a slim 3 point home favorite despite the uncertainty over #9. That line clearly anticipates Brees starting – and Vegas isn’t in the business of getting these things wrong.

If Brees does go – and we’re expecting him to at least start the game on Sunday – his ability to throw downfield will be tested early by Carolina. Rivera will likely stack the box with 8 or 9 defenders in an attempt to take away the run and force Brees to beat them. Last week against Tampa, Brees was effectively unable to throw further than 10 yards downfield without losing all velocity and control. We will know very quickly this week whether Brees truly is “healthy” – and it would be classic Brees/Payton to dial up an exclamation point “shot” play early (perhaps even on the first snap) if the Panthers do just fill the box.

Even if Brees is not at full-health, or the Saints rely on Luke McCown under center, there is still some hope for the Black and Gold. The Saints ambushed the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium last year, pounding them into submission with a run-heavy attack. Sean Payton’s offense ran the ball 37 times in that game, grinding out 105 tough yards and 3TDs, often against a congested 8 or 9 man box. That kind of attack is reliant on the Saints offensive line winning in the trenches, of course, which will be an uphill battle based on what we’ve seen to date in 2015.

Saints Defense v Panthers Offense – The BoiLa’s Take “Expect a heavy dose of Jonathan Stewart early in this one, as Carolina try to capitalise on the potentially soft New Orleans interior defensive line. Stewart victimised the Saints last year. Cam Newton will also see carries, as the Panthers seek to exploit any weakness against the “read option” in this inexperienced Saints D. If the Saints can find a way to stop the run and contain Cam, though, they have a good chance of faring well against this Panther offense. The talented Saints secondary – potentially welcoming back Keenan Lewis – should be able to get the better of the Panther receivers. All that will leave is TE Greg Olsen, who will likely be covered by a combination of Kenny Vaccaro and the linebackers. Vaccaro has looked better in 2015, but the Olsen assignment would represent his toughest test yet.”

Saints Offense v Panthers Defense – The BoiLa’s Take “The Saints offensive line simply has to play better this week, to give the Saints a chance of leaving Charlotte with the W. They face their sternest test to date against a dangerous Carolina front 7. If Brees does get the start, all eyes will be on #9. The Panthers are likely to stack the box early to take away short passes and force Brees to test his arm. In the circumstances, Sean Payton would no doubt love to emulate the “ground and pound” of the Saints last trip to Bank of America Stadium, where they rushed 37 times on route to a 28-10 victory. There was an element of surprise about that gameplan, however, and especially given Brees status it seems unlikely the Saints will be able replicate that on Sunday against a crowded box. An improved O-Line performance will give the Saints a chance. If the O-Line fails to improve, though, it will not matter a great deal who is under center.”

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Following the game on Sunday we’ll be grading each players performance using our color-code grading system. If you’ve never seen our grading before and want to know what you can expect, then feel free to check back through all of our Saints grades in the Player Grades Archive.

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