Might China strike a deal to establish a military base in Venezuela? If so, what would that mean for U.S. security interests?

I ask the questions in light of Venezuelan President Nicolas 'the Mad Rabbit' Maduro's ongoing visit to Beijing. Seeking new Chinese loans to prop up his decrepit, hyperinflated economy, Maduro is in full begging mode. After all, he's run out of options. Venezuela's children are starving, and its men and women (even the most educated) are trying to find any meager employment. Many others are relying on Colombian kindness or prostituting themselves. Even Maduro and all his cronies are now feeling the pressure. That makes Hugo Chavez's successor much likelier to accept a high Chinese price for any new loans.

And that brings me back my original question: Might China want a military base on Venezuelan soil?

I think it's quite likely. The key here is that President Xi Jinping wants to displace the U.S.-led international order with his own. Where U.S. order centers on the rule of law and democratic norms, Xi's order is built on feudal submission to China in return for economic patronage. Put simply, the two orders are incompatible. But for Xi's order to prevail, he needs more than just his increasing economic influence. Xi needs a presence of power that encourages foreign governments to believe they should play ball with Beijing, not Washington. That means China's increased military presence around the world.

We're already seeing this presence develop in places like Pakistan, where the Chinese have developed a deep-water port at Gwadar. With great patience, the Chinese hope, their Pakistani presence will serve as a military and economic stepping stone to hegemony in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and far Indian Ocean.

And from China's perspective, what better place to set up the next base than in Venezuela? That nation isn't just the world's most oil-rich (a great opportunity to feed Chinese energy security), its geostrategic position offers power in the Atlantic Ocean and through the Caribbean Sea. Venezuela's proximity to Panama, for example, would give the Chinese a window to increasing influence over the Panama Canal. Possessing a range of deep-water ports such as the one at Puerto Cabello, Venezuela would offer China a pre-existing foundation with which to sustain a permanent forward-deployed or rotation-deployed fleet. While China's long-range naval forces are only now entering service in the form of the Type 055 guided missile destroyer and Type 095 attack submarines, those forces are designed to be the keys that unlock China's effective contest with America far from Chinese territory.

Would Venezuela risk U.S. ire by allowing Chinese basing rights? I think so. Maduro is already increasing his rhetoric against Washington and has repeatedly threatened Colombia. At the same time, the Venezuelan leader knows the U.S. and its allies believe he is a irredeemable despot: They want no part of a rapprochement with his regime.

So where does this leave the U.S.?

Well, ruling out military action, the Trump administration should tighten the economic screws on Maduro's regime by killing his oil exports. Simultaneously, the U.S. should continue to pressure Xi's regime on its economic malfeasance and endemic human rights abuses. And with nations like Colombia, Vietnam, and India, the U.S. should ensure that its global order wins new, albeit politically diverse, friends to sustain in the 21st century. Finally, if Xi one day does set up base in Venezuela, the U.S. should station its newest long-range sea-strike missiles on the Puerto Rican and Colombian coasts. That would deny Chinese vessels freedom of movement in the Caribbean and consolidate a new Monroe Doctrine to retain the democratic balance of power.