The USA confirmed their World Cup long-list on Wednesday, an extended squad of 50 players named with 40 set to prepare for the Pacific Nations Cup beginning next week. Canada will do the same shortly – an initial, unpublished, list of 60 players has been whittled down to 40 that will be confirmed on Monday. Those who hope to be on the plane to Japan this fall will need to fall in that group, though there may be room for an exception or two.

For the first time in Canadian rugby history, the Head Coach will have the option of selecting a fully professional squad. With 20-odd internationals playing for overseas clubs and Major League Rugby‘s eligibles pushing 50, there is little need to look at those in amateur rugby. Recent selection trends, however, suggest that a handful may still be in the picture.

Kingsley Jones has a number of key decisions to make when picking his squad, getting from both 60 to 40 and 40 to the final submission of 31. He’ll need to consider his traveling squad composition, his selection strategy for individual games themselves at the World Cup, and what to base criteria on – club form, experience, youth, and the Jones ‘seal of approval’ are all factors that weigh into inclusion.

With only 31 players allowed on the World Cup roster, versatility will also come into the equation. Injury call-ups are permanent and must be named a minimum of 48 hours before a match appearance. Add in the arduous travel to Japan and the value of utility players rises considerably.

There is also the question of whether to include any sevens players. It’s a strategy that has previously failed – see RWC 2015 – but given the lack of depth at a couple key positions, one that could be revisited. With only five games to play before the match against Italy in Fukuoka there is precious little time to re-acquaint sevens regulars with the change of tempo in XVs, but Gary Gold has seen fit to include three Eagles Sevens stars in his group and a similar number may yet appear on Canada’s list.

Jones’ primary mandate will be to defeat the Azzurri in game one. With automatic qualification to RWC 2023 potentially on the line it is a game of enormous importance. The other target will be Namibia in Kamaishi, with New Zealand and South Africa in between a chance to mix up the match day roster. It’s there that some younger players could get a run with an eye towards 2023.

Below we’ll take a look at the options in each grouping and look at selection history to see who might be in Monday’s announcement, and who might be left in the cold. Jones has been in charge since November 2017 for a total of 18 tests and there are some patterns that stand out. For the purpose of this exercise we will not be including the non-test internationals against the Argentina XV (x2) and the NZ Māori.

FRONT ROW

The main question here is whether to bring eight or nine front rowers to Japan. Most of the bigger nations will go with nine, but if there is a player who can cover multiple spots – either both sides as a prop or a prop-slash-hooker – the choice could drop to eight. Jones has previously stated his dislike for bringing three specialist hookers so the magic number is likely to be eight.

Noah Barker can cover across the front row which makes him highly valuable in a tournament situation. Rob Brouwer, Ryan Kotlewski, and Tom Dolezel can cover both sides of the scrum though none would be considered probables to make the trip.

POS NAME ST REP UN

ST = test starts, REP = replacement caps, UN = unused replacement

LHP Hubert Buydens 9 – – LHP Djustice Sears-Duru 7 9 – LHP Noah Barker 2 3 1 LHP Anthony Luca – 3 –

There looks to be an obvious hierarchy here but recent trends suggest that Barker has pushed ahead of DJ Sears-Duru, though the latter has shown better form in MLR. It seems most likely that both be named on Monday given Barker’s versatility.

The form loosehead in Canadian rugby, however, is Arrows starter Rob Brouwer. He has not featured under Jones but it would be a harsh call indeed not to select him in at least the extended squad. Whether Jones will choose to take both Hubert Buydens and Brouwer, 37 and 36 years old respectively, is another question to be answered.

Anthony Luca was in the picture 18 months ago but has since dropped out.

HO Ray Barkwill 13 1 – HO Eric Howard 3 7 – HO Benoît Pifféro 2 3 – HO Martial Lagain – 2 1 HO Noah Barker – 2 – HO Jordan Olsen – – 1

Here we see a real cause of concern for Jones. Ray Barkwill’s sudden and unexpected retirement has left Eric Howard and Benoît Pifféro as the only available hookers with any real test experience. Martial Lagain has also hung up the boots.

Rising up as a bolter is uncapped Arrows starter Andrew Quattrin. His form virtually demands inclusion and he is expected to be named in Monday’s squad. Barker’s ability to cover hooker makes him a good bet for the final 31 and likely means only two specialists will ultimately make the trip.

Jordan Olsen was a late addition to the Americas Rugby Championship squad and his only on-field appearance was a non-test against the Argentina XV. He could make the extended list if Pifféro’s work commitments make him unavailable but it seems unlikely.

THP Jake Ilnicki 10 2 – THP Matt Tierney 5 2 – THP Cole Keith 3 7 2 THP Ryan Kotlewski – 4 3

As with loosehead, there is a clear hierarchy on the right side of the scrum, or so it seems. Matt Tierney pulled ahead of Jake Ilnicki in November’s Repechage series, but his form was not as sharp during the ARC while Ilnicki is getting ready to play in the MLR Final this weekend.

Cole Keith is the odds-on favorite as third choice with Kotlewski, currently in Australia, in the mix but on the outside looking in. Dolezel looked in dominant form early in the season for the Arrows and might actually be the best scrummaging tighthead available but pulled back from Toronto in recent weeks due to work commitments and may not be available for selection.

UBC’s South African tighthead Clint Lemkus was being eyed with his residency qualifications coming through just ahead of the World Cup, but a serious neck injury ruled him out for several months and it would be a surprise to see him jump ahead of other contenders so late in the hour.

Probables: Hubert Buydens (NOLA Gold), Djustice Sears-Duru (Seattle Seawolves), Noah Barker (Glendale Raptors), Rob Brouwer (Toronto Arrows), Eric Howard (NOLA Gold), Benoît Pifféro (Blagnac, FR), Andrew Quattrin (Toronto Arrows), Jake Ilnicki (Seattle Seawolves), Matt Tierney (Pau, FR), Cole Keith (Toronto Arrows)

Possibles: Jordan Olsen (Northland, NZ), Ryan Kotlewski (Canberra Royals, AU), Tom Dolezel (Toronto Arrows), Clint Lemkus (UBC Thunderbirds)

SECOND ROW

Look for four locks to make the plane in September, with at least one ‘swing’ player able to cover both second and back row. That player could be among the group of four, or might be primarily a back row addition with Kyle Baillie the most likely in that scenario.

LO Josh Larsen 11 1 – LO Evan Olmstead 10 – – LO Kyle Baillie 5 2 – LO Conor Keys 3 6 1 LO Brett Beukeboom 3 4 – LO Mike Sheppard 3 2 – LO Paul Ciulini 1 1 –

Baillie is a certainty in the squad but most likely to be taken as a blindside flanker primarily who can also cover lock. That likely leaves room for five of the above on the 40-man roster. If Jones considers Baillie a likely starter at lock during the World Cup, it could leave room for only three others.

Despite starting only three tests under Jones, Brett Beukeboom is a front-runner particularly after his fine season with Cornish Pirates. He and Evan Olmstead can be counted to be named on Monday.

Josh Larsen has started more than any other candidate but dropped to the bench in the final ARC game and didn’t see the field, with Conor Keys instead playing all 80 minutes. Mike Sheppard started in November but let himself down somewhat in the ARC before regaining his form during the MLR season. Paul Ciulini is the heaviest lock available also showed well with the Arrows in recent weeks.

Outsiders could include the mobile Adrian Wadden, a starter in the BUCS Super League with Leeds Beckett, or youngster Matt Beukeboom, who was in Pau’s academy this past year but will move to Montauban next season. Jones rates the younger Beukeboom but has not been able to call on him until now due to injury. He covers lock or blindside flank, and could be a bolter in either group.

Probables: Josh Larsen (Austin Elite), Evan Olmstead (Newcastle Falcons, UK), Conor Keys (Rotherham Titans, UK), Brett Beukeboom (Cornish Pirates, UK), Mike Sheppard (Toronto Arrows)

Possibles: Paul Ciulini (Toronto Arrows), Adrian Wadden (Leeds Beckett, UK), Matt Beukeboom (Pau, FR)

BACK ROW

At the moment there should be considered only one certainty in Canada’s start back row come the Italy match – Tyler Ardron at No8. As mentioned Baillie is a shoe-in to start somewhere, but the debate is whether it’s at lock or at blindside flanker. There is competition at both flanker spots.

How many travel will depend, again, on squad composition. It seems most likely that five players will go in addition to Baillie, with the choice then becoming whether to take an extra lock or an extra back. Look for seven or eight to make the cut in the 40.

FL6 Kyle Baillie 7 – – FL6 Lucas Rumball 5 – – FL6 Dustin Dobravsky 3 4 1 FL6 Justin Blanchet 2 1 – FL6 Evan Olmstead 1 – – FL6 Cam Polson – 2 –

Baillie heads up the blindside group but notably it’s Lucas Rumball who has been the next-most prevalent. There are many who consider Rumball’s best spot to be No6 but with Canada he has more recently been favored as an openside. Justin Blanchet impressed in his debut run during the ARC and is a dark horse to start in Japan.

Dustin Dobravsky is probably the only forward playing club rugby that will be considered after Luke Campbell’s move to the Arrows. Though Dobravsky has been a regular for Jones, that distinction could well cost him with a number of professionals in the way.

Prior to this past MLR season Cam Polson might have been in contention as lock-blindside cover but a knee injury ended his campaign early and though he will soon be recovered, it’s likely too late to make the cut for even the Pacific Nations Cup. Olmstead prefers blindside but will be at lock for Canada.

As mentioned above, Matt Beukeboom is an outsider who could get a look on the blindside with Travis Larsen also capable of covering No6 or his preferred No8.

FL7 Lucas Rumball 9 3 – FL7 Matt Heaton 9 3 – FL7 Nakai Penny – 3 –

When Jones first took over it was Matt Heaton who controlled the starting openside spot. More recently it has been Rumball but the option also remains to start both on the flanks, which Jones has done on five occasions. Rumball missed the latter part of the MLR season with a knee injury but is expected to be back to full fitness in July.

A relative newcomer to contention is Seattle’s Nakai Penny. He made his debut as a replacement in the ARC but has been exceptional for the Seawolves, taking over as first choice and is expected to start in Sunday’s final. So impressive is his form that he should also be considered a strong possibility to get a starting opportunity at the PNC.

Last year’s national u20 captain James O’Neill has been playing club rugby with UVic and would be a surprise inclusion, as would Arrows duo Peter Milazzo and John Moonlight. Both have huge engines but realistically are behind the primary trio above.

Another longshot might be Austin openside Moe Abdelmonem. In his favor is that he offers a completely different profile to the other options, a classic groundhog with the potential to make game-changing turnovers. Playing in a losing side hasn’t helped his chances and his form did show some ups and downs which will count against him.

No8 Luke Campbell 9 – – No8 Tyler Ardron 6 – – No8 Kyle Gilmour 1 2 – No8 Dustin Dobravsky 1 – – No8 Aaron Carpenter 1 – – No8 Admir Cejvanovic – 2 –

Campbell has been the go-to man whenever Ardron has been unavailable and those two should be expected to get the call for Japan. What looked like a shoulder injury suffered by Campbell against Seattle this past weekend could open the door for Travis Larsen, Austin’s starter who is likely next in line.

Kyle Gilmour and Aaron Carpenter have both retired leaving Admir Cejvanovic and Dobravsky as the only other capped players here. Dobravsky’s chances are addressed above, while Cejvanovic has been focused on sevens and is unlikely to feature.

Probables: Kyle Baillie (NOLA Gold), Justin Blanchet (Bedford Blues, UK), Lucas Rumball (Toronto Arrows), Matt Heaton (Darlington Mowden Park, UK), Nakai Penny (Seattle Seawolves), Tyler Ardron (Chiefs, NZ), Luke Campbell (Toronto Arrows)

Possibles: Matt Beukeboom (Pau, FR), Dustin Dobravsky (Castaway Wanderers), Moe Abdelmonem (Austin Elite), Travis Larsen (Austin Elite)

HALFBACKS

As with hooker, Jones has previously expressed his hesitance to bring three specialists in the halfback positions. This means a third scrumhalf would only go if there is sufficient flyhalf cover elsewhere. The obvious solution seems to be Gordon McRorie, who has test experience at both No9 and No10.

Players who have utility value and could be seen as flyhalf options also include Patrick Parfrey, Theo Sauder, Connor Braid, and Robbie Povey.

SH Phil Mack 14 – – SH Jamie Mackenzie 3 4 – SH Andrew Ferguson 1 5 1 SH Gordon McRorie – 3 – SH Will Percillier – 2 1 SH Jorden Sandover-Best – 1 1

Barring a dramatic turn in preference, Phil Mack is the nailed-on starter here. With McRorie an odds-on favorite to travel that almost certainly leaves room for only one more scrumhalf. The most experienced options are Arrows duo Andrew Ferguson and Jamie Mackenzie. Ferguson has had the edge in MLR form but Mackenzie has been favored by Jones since returning from a two-year hiatus.

Will Percillier has been turning heads with his performances at u20 level and made his senior debut in the ARC. There are more than few tipping him to leapfrog both Ferguson and Mackenzie into the travel team. He may be left out of Monday’s group but if so, don’t bet against him being called up after the u20 Trophy in Brazil next month.

Jorden Sandover-Best is the best alternative playing club rugby but as with Dobravsky, this is likely to count against him. In this regard McRorie is an exception, with his versatility and experience making up for lack of a pro contract.

FH Patrick Parfrey 6 2 2 FH Gordon McRorie 5 1 – FH Shane O’Leary 5 1 – FH Theo Sauder 1 – 1 FH Connor Braid 1 – – FH Robbie Povey – 1 – FH Will Kelly – 1 –

The bane of selectors since the retirement of Ander Monro in 2011. Canada has gone through four Head Coaches since then and none have been able to pin down a long-term answer at No10. Shane O’Leary is the only option playing the position regularly at pro level, but it’s Parfrey who has the most starts under Jones and McRorie who was favored in the Repechage.

Parfrey utility value makes him a strong chance for the final squad of 31. He has started at flyhalf and fullback for Jones, with his best position of inside centre where he has featured most frequently with the Arrows. He is not a test-level goal kicker, however, which may count against him.

Theo Sauder is now effectively a full-time fullback, while Robbie Povey might be classified more of a fullback-slash-flyhalf now than the other way around. Will Kelly is a specialist who was in the Dragons academy but is likely one for the next World Cup cycle.

It may come as a surprise to some that Connor Braid’s only test appearance under Jones was in fact at flyhalf. He was Canada’s first choice inside centre at RWC 2015 and could be a surprise addition on Monday though he has been a sevens specialist as of late and is also nursing an injured shoulder.

There are two other sevens squad members who were in the 2015 travel team – Nathan Hirayama and Harry Jones. The latter was then selected as a fullback and is seen more as a utility option. Hirayama is a specialist, however, and some would argue still Canada’s best option at No10. His short-term transition back to XVs four years ago did not come through with flying colors, however, and recent public spats with the management might also tilt their thoughts elsewhere.

Probables: Phil Mack (Seattle Seawolves), Jamie Mackenzie (Toronto Arrows), Andrew Ferguson (Toronto Arrows), Gordon McRorie (Calgary Hornets), Shane O’Leary (Nottingham, UK), Patrick Parfrey (Toronto Arrows)

Possibles: Will Percillier (Stade Français, FR), Robbie Povey (Sale FC, UK), Will Kelly (Dragons, UK), Nathan Hirayama (Canada Sevens)

MIDFIELD

There are numerous options in the midfield and the most consistent selections under Jones might both be left out on Monday if professional status is weighted heavily. In fact Canada’s starters here at the World Cup could well be those who haven’t started at all for Jones, or at least infrequently.

The final mix for Japan could be three or four centres, depending on whether an extra lock is preferred over a back. Given the versatility of Parfrey and Braid to cover both 10 and 12, and the strong chance that DTH van der Merwe is considered at 13, the magic numbers is likely three.

CE12 Nick Blevins 11 3 – CE12 Ciaran Hearn 7 1 – CE12 Guiseppe du Toit – 6 1

When available, the preferred option at inside centre has been Ciaran Hearn, though Nick Blevins has been the most frequent. Hearn started at outside centre four years ago and could also be considered there, though it seems unlikely at this point. Guiseppe du Toit has been a frequent selection in Canadian squads but has only one test start under Jones, as a late change starter in the No13 shirt.

Perhaps the biggest chance for a sevens player to be picked is here. Braid is arguably the best candidate at No12 and has made no secret of his desire to play in both the World Cup and the Olympics. He played some club rugby for James Bay in the fall and with professional experience in XVs is a realistic candidate to make the transition. Also in his favor is his outstanding form on the HSBC circuit this season, and his goal kicking skills.

There are two outsiders who have made their case in MLR this season. The first is George Barton, the battering ram who has been starting for Seattle this season. He hasn’t featured at all under Jones but was observed in person by the coach last weekend. Also playing was Spencer Jones, who has been starting at outside centre for the Arrows but is better suited for No12. He has impressed but more likely to be seen post-RWC.

If Jones prefers a New Zealand-style playmaker at inside centre the options look to be Hearn or Braid. If the choice is to play on the gainline, it’s the experienced Blevins or the heavyweight Barton, with the latter a genuine chance at making Monday’s squad.

A wildcard could be Quinn Ngawati, another u20 standout who has jumped between league and union over the past couple years. It would be a surprise to see him in Monday’s announcement but as with Percillier, he could earn a call-up to the senior training group post-July.

CE13 Ben LeSage 10 1 – CE13 Doug Fraser 3 1 1 CE13 DTH van der Merwe 3 – – CE13 Nick Blevins 1 – – CE13 Guiseppe du Toit 1 – – CE13 Conor Trainor – 3 –

UBC starter Ben LeSage has been the most popular selection at outside centre under Jones, starting all three Repechage tests ahead of full-time pro Conor Trainor. Many expect it to be the opposite come the PNC with Trainor more experienced and seen as a greater attacking threat.

In Canada’s first three tests under Jones it was in fact DTH van der Merwe who played in the No13 shirt, the same he occupied to great effect earlier in his Canada career. Given the stack of talented wingers available and particularly the return of Jeff Hassler, the odds-on favorite for the role in Japan should be van der Merwe.

Doug Fraser has flown under the radar somewhat but has always delivered when asked. Injuries hampered his season with Austin and that, combined with Barton’s ability to cover 13 as well, likely spells the end of his World Cup hopes.

Probables: Nick Blevins (Calgary Hornets), Ciaran Hearn (London Irish, UK), George Barton (Seattle Seawolves), Ben LeSage (UBC Thunderbirds), DTH van der Merwe (Glasgow Warriors, UK), Conor Trainor (Nevers, FR)

Possibles: Connor Braid (Canada Sevens), Guiseppe du Toit (Toronto Arrows), Spencer Jones (Toronto Arrows), Doug Fraser (Austin Elite), Quinn Ngawati (Westshore)

OUTSIDE BACKS

Canada’s greatest strength in terms of depth is out wide, where a number of options are available at wing and fullback. No matter who is selected there will be quality left disappointed. It’s a good problem to have for Jones, not so much for nervous supporters.

WI DTH van der Merwe 8 – – WI Kainoa Lloyd 6 3 – WI Taylor Paris 5 – – WI Brock Staller 4 2 – WI Jeff Hassler 4 – – WI Andrew Coe 4 – – WI Cole Davis 3 2 – WI Matt Evans 2 – –

van der Merwe is a certainty, though it’s in the midfield where he could well find himself at the World Cup. Logic would dictate that Hassler and Taylor Paris are just favorites to start in Japan, but Paris was effectively dropped by Jones last year and only recalled in November when Matt Evans was injured.

Since then Paris has been first choice for Castres while Evans has struggled to keep his spot in the Cornish Pirates side. The latter should be seen primarily as a fullback for World Cup consideration with so many wingers now in the mix.

Brock Staller has won the MLR scoring title and that alone makes him an attractive figure. He has played both wing and fullback under Jones which helps his cause. Likewise Andrew Coe had started at both positions though likely falls more in the latter spot in this case.

Kainoa Lloyd has been second-choice at the Arrows behind Dan Moor, who has been one of Toronto’s form players and likely merits a recall. His only appearance for Jones was the non-test against the Māori, though he was called into training camp ahead of the Repechage series.

Cole Davis has been with the sevens program this year and looks to be out of contention for now. Justin Douglas would seem the most likely selection from that program though an unlikely choice, with similarly Austin’s Aidan McMullan lacks the experience of other options.

FB Theo Sauder 6 1 – FB Patrick Parfrey 4 – – FB Andrew Coe 3 – – FB Brock Staller 2 – – FB Taylor Paris 1 – – FB Ciaran Hearn 1 – – FB Josh Thiel 1 – –

Theo Sauder looks to be the heir-apparent to Evans as Canada’s first choice fullback but his defense has looked shaky at times. Parfrey was, for a short time, preferred by Jones, and could yet get another look, while Coe was the top prospect before Sauder emerged.

Staller can cover there but is almost exclusively a right winger for Seattle, while Hearn could be another unexpected choice there or even Hirayama. Paris did not enjoy his one and only cap at fullback and it’s frankly a mystery why he was put in that position in the first place.

Josh Thiel was given a run against Chile in the 2018 ARC and has floated around the backs since but isn’t considered a likely selection this time. UBCOB star Aaron McLelland signed for the Arrows but didn’t end up playing a single game. Like Lemkus, the New Zealander qualifies for Canada just ahead of the World Cup and has plenty of speed but short on time to make a move for a spot on the plane.

The biggest calls to be made out wide are which players to leave out. Lloyd and Coe were Canada’s starting wingers in the ARC. Will either be in the squad on Monday? It’s very, very close with the likes of Staller, Moor, and Evans the ones most at risk should the incumbents get the nod.

Probables: Taylor Paris (Castres, FR), Jeff Hassler (Seattle Seawolves), Brock Staller (Seattle Seawolves), Dan Moor (Toronto Arrows), Theo Sauder (Toronto Arrows), Matt Evans (Cornish Pirates, UK)

Possibles: Kainoa Lloyd (Toronto Arrows), Andrew Coe (Canada Sevens), Aidan McMullan (Austin Elite), Aaron McLelland (UBCOB Ravens)