Florida Gov. Rick Scott speaks to supporters as he makes a campaign stop at Chico's Cuban Restaurant, where he received an endorsement from the Florida Police Chiefs Association on June 14 in Hialeah, Florida. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images Poll of Puerto Ricans in Florida shows Scott better-liked than Nelson

MIAMI — Gov. Rick Scott is better-known and better-liked than Sen. Bill Nelson among Puerto Ricans in Florida, according to a new poll that spells trouble for the incumbent as this Democratic-leaning group leans toward the Republican challenger ahead of the November election.

About 75 percent have a good opinion of Scott, while just 18 percent do not, according to the poll of 1,000 Puerto Ricans in the state commissioned by Florida International University.


Only 7 percent didn’t know enough about Scott to hazard an opinion of him — a sign the governor’s seven trips to Puerto Rico and his aggressive campaigning welcoming evacuees from the island after Hurricane Maria have paid dividends.

Nelson’s numbers: 62 percent favor him, 26 percent don’t and 13 percent don’t know enough to voice an opinion, the poll shows.

Calculated another way, Scott’s net approval rating is 57 percent and Nelson’s is 36 percent among Puerto Ricans. So the Republican is running ahead of the Democrat by about 21 percentage points.

The numbers are even more striking because 57 percent of the poll’s respondents say they’re registered as Democrats; only 12 percent are Republicans. And almost 57 percent said they would vote for a generic Democrat while only 7 percent would vote for an unnamed Republican.

“This is not necessarily the best news for Democrats,” FIU professor Eduardo Gamarra — who analyzed the survey data along with his colleague, Jorge Duany — told POLITICO. “It’s not necessarily ideological. I think they thought this man [Scott] was genuinely interested in their well-being.”

The poll — which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and surveyed people in the Orlando, Tampa, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas — didn’t test a head-to-head horse race between Nelson and Scott, however, because it surveyed all Puerto Ricans in the state who have arrived both before and after the hurricane. About 75 percent of the respondents said they have registered to vote, and most plan to vote.

The poll numbers are making Democrats fret even more about Nelson’s Hispanic, and specifically Puerto Rican, outreach after POLITICO reported the depths of his struggles. In some focus groups of Puerto Ricans in Central Florida, few knew much about Nelson. Many knew and liked Scott.

That’s a huge danger for Nelson and a big advantage for Scott because, historically, Democrats have counted on the growing Puerto Rican vote in Central Florida as a counterweight to Republican-leaning Cuban-Americans in South Florida. Puerto Ricans are now the largest Hispanic group in Florida, with more than 1.1 million residents, and experts estimate about 500,000 are voters.

But Cuban-American turnout is among the highest in the state, experts say, while Puerto Rican turnout fluctuates with other non-Cuban Hispanics, who are also Democratic and whose turnout rate has historically collapsed in midterm elections. Scott won his last two elections, during midterms, by 1.2 and 1 percentage points, respectively, amid poor turnout by non-Cuban Hispanics in counties with big Puerto Rican communities.

However, Nelson has a not-so-secret weapon he can wield against Scott: the name of President Donald Trump, who is deeply disliked by Puerto Ricans over the lackluster response to Hurricane Maria. Trump urged Scott to run for Senate, and Scott raised money for Trump’s presidential bid. Focus groups showed Scott’s approval plummeting when he was tied to Trump.

Only 18 percent approve of the president, and 72 percent disapprove. His net rating is a negative 53 percent. So Scott is running 104 percentage points better than the president of his own party among Puerto Rican voters.

Jose Parra, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the Prospero Latino consulting firm, said Nelson can turn things around with Puerto Rican voters. But time is short.

“This is a solvable problem if it’s done now. If you do this two months before the election, it’s too late. We’re getting very close to that already,” Parra said. “The fact you point out that the Trump numbers are so low, it’s more than a sliver of light for Nelson, it’s a massive flash of light. But they need to act aggressively on it and act on it now.”

Parra said Nelson has a good record for most Hispanic voters and Puerto Ricans specifically, but Democrats “need to take his record and weaponize it, and they haven’t done it up until this point.”

For his part, Scott has said Nelson has failed to show up for Latinos as well as all Floridians. “I haven’t seen him around the state,” Scott said recently.

Nelson and Scott also have better numbers among Puerto Ricans than the bilingual Sen. Marco Rubio, whose net approval rating is 33 percent.

Scott, who is learning to speak Spanish and conducts Spanish-language interviews more often than Nelson, has traveled to Puerto Rico seven times since Hurricane Maria. Nelson has been there three times.

Among Puerto Ricans who’ve come to Florida since 2017, more than 37 percent have a “very good” opinion of Scott. Just over 10 percent of new arrivals share the same opinion of Nelson. New arrivals are also the most independent voters. While 57 percent of those surveyed are still registered as Democrats, that trend is declining among new arrivals. A quarter of those who migrated to Florida in the past year are registered independent — the largest group in that category.

The pollster, Gamarra, pointed out that the Federal Emergency Management Agency money supporting displaced Puerto Ricans while they look for employment is set to run out on Saturday, saying, “they will lose their benefits and no longer stay in their hotels for free.” If they are displaced again, he added, their favorable opinion of Scott could turn.

Island evacuees living in Central Florida set up a “tent city” this week in protest of the voucher program’s expiration and to demand that Scott help them with housing, the Orlando Weekly reported.

About 90 percent of those polled have received some public assistance. About 61 percent were able to find work soon after arriving in Florida. Those who have been in Florida the longest report more employment: 53 percent of those who arrived in 2017 say they were employed, and about 69 percent of those who have been in the state the longest report employment.

About 56 percent of Puerto Ricans plan to stay in Florida “indefinitely.” But almost 18 percent said they are having trouble learning English, and about 17 percent said finding work was a problem, the second-highest challenge for those polled.

The poll found that the top reason for leaving the island or moving to Florida was economic conditions or work, with 57 percent citing the tough conditions in Puerto Rico or the lure of jobs in the Sunshine State. Fewer than 11 percent cited the hurricane.

The Puerto Rican Alliance of Florida paid for the poll and, along with FIU and the Puerto Rican Leadership Council of South Florida, will present its findings on Saturday at a “Nuestro Futuro” symposium attended by representatives from business, government, academia and the media.