Copyright: Reuters

Given the number of variables involved, there’s no way of knowing how a given player will respond to a new club. Ineffable though the transfer market may be, there are still some trends that emerge over time, trends that might hint at how prosperous a transaction may be. During this series — Unlocking the Transfer Market — we take a look at some of those trends, and ask how they can be of use to Roberto Martinez’ Everton.

At first blush, it’s hard to envision a way in which Everton could emulate Chelsea in the Transfer Market. In matters of player trading, the only connective tissue between the two clubs develops when the London Blues make a bid for one of the Liverpool Blues’ players (see: Barkley, Ross). If Chelsea were to give Everton advice, it would begin and end with recommending a wealthy, Russian benefactor.

All clubs — Everton included — trade in two markets. One is the high-priced (relatively speaking), immediate help market, and the other is the lower-priced, preparing for the future market. It’s Chelsea’s work in the latter of these categories that could help Everton succeed in the former category.

Let’s pretend Everton’s budget this season is, in fact, £25m. Forgetting wages, agents fees, clubs needs and so on, how would you feel if their summer spending netted players who would go on to become Nemanja Matic, Tomas Kalas, Thibaut Courtois, Kevin De Bruyne and Lucas Piazon? Not bad, right? Chelsea, initially anyway, spent roughly £25m on those five players.

“Sure,” you say, “we could play the same game with our signings. Seamus Coleman only cost £60,000!”

Yes and no. The difference with Chelsea is their success rate. In the past five years, they haven’t missed with this kind of signing. While credit for that goes to good scouting, their exists certain similarities shared by all those players, as well as Romelu Lukaku, who also fits the profile but cost considerably more.

The primary connection between all these players is a simple one: they were all young and they were all among the best (that’s the important bit) in their respective leagues. Matic earned his first cap with the Serbian senior team at 18, Courtois was Goalkeeper of the Year in the Pro League at the same age, De Bruyne was 17 when he made his debut at Genk, and was in on over 20 goals at 19 and 20 years of age.

Kalas and Piazon are outsiders in this part of the discussion, but only because they caught Chelsea’s fancy at younger ages. Since then, they’ve both gone on to have significant success with Vitesse in the Erevdivisie.

The other piece of the Chelsea puzzle is that four of the six (if we are to include Lukaku into the discussion) came from the Belgian First Division. Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke, who fits both parameters, makes it five players who fit the model. While it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly how the Jupiler Pro League has churned out so many quality players in recent years, it’s safe to say it probably has something to do with Belgium’s plan to achieve complete global domination through boss footballers. Like you aren’t putting a cheeky bet on them to win the World Cup?

Of course, the red flag here is that of Chelsea’s six secondary signings, only Matic has accomplished anything at Stamford Bridge, and that was only after being sold to and bought back from Benfica. Still, Courtois and Lukaku have proven themselves against the stiffest competition Europe has to offer, and De Bruyne was sold to Wolfsburg for £18m, and has since compiled three goals and six assists in 16 Bundesliga appearances.

There are bargains to be had, as long as you’re willing to take a risk on a youngster who has proven a standout at a lesser league. Everton have already been linked with Michy Batshuayi and Maxime Lestienne from the Pro League, but who else could fit the model?

Imoh Ezekial, F, Standard Liege (20) – Ezekial reached double digits in goals and assists this season, after compiling 15 goals the season before.

Aleksander Mitrovic, F, Anderlecht (19) – In his first season in Belgium, Mitrovic finished fourth in the league with 16 goals.

Youri Tielemans, M, Anderlecht (17) – Although he only turned 17 on May 7 of this year, Tielemans made 22 appearances for Anderlecht. In October, he became the youngest Belgian to ever play in a Champions League match.

Massimo Bruno, F, Anderlecht (20) – The winger compiled 15 goals and 9 assists in 41 appearances this season.

Have we forgotten anyone? Let us know!

Next in the series: You know that thing Spurs did last summer? Don’t do that.