SPRINGFIELD — Anne Miller of Citizens for a Palmer Rail Stop said her advocacy group already has more members commuting to Boston than the state thinks would use frequent rail service through the town under estimates announced Thursday.

That, she said, is without there being any trains today and with frequent traffic tie-ups on the Massachusetts Turnpike, parking hassles and expenses related to driving.

"They're missing people," Miller said Thursday at an advisory committee meeting of the Massachusetts Department of Transportation East-West Rail Study Advisory Committee.

Miller’s observation was a common one at a meeting where MassDOT planners released cost and ridership estimates for six east-west rail options. The cost estimates range from the modest $2 billion, for some improved rail service along existing tracks, up to the eye-popping $25 billion, for an electrified, high-speed rail line following the Pike.

The public will get a chance to speak out on the project at a public meeting from 6-8 p.m. Feb. 12 at the UMass Center at Springfield in Tower Square, 1500 Main St., on the second floor of the shopping mall. The advisory committee will meet again Feb. 24 in Springfield. A final report is due in May.

In general, as costs go up, so does speed and estimated ridership. The cheapest option would attract 11,500 riders a year. The most expensive would draw a quarter-million riders a year.

But that's according to state estimates that few bought into Thursday.

Ben Heckscher, co-founder of Trains in the Valley, said Amtrak draws about 20,000 riders a year in Northampton. And that was before frequent north-south service began in August 2019 with the launch of the Valley Flyer.

He said MassDOT estimates showed 60,000 riders on the whole of an east-west line in one scenario. “And Northampton has a third that many now,” Heckscher said. “The costs estimates are too high, and the ridership estimates are too low. This whole thing is skewed.”

A federal study completed in 2016 pegged the cost of upgrading east-west rail tracks at $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, Heckscher said.

MassDOT officials said their cost estimates changed because construction costs and standards have changed. The passenger estimates are based on similar projects around the country and the world and what officials know about commuting and population.

1/15/2020 -Springfield- The CTrail 1:50pm train pulls out of Springifeld's Union Station. The Springfield to New Haven CTrail line has been well received by people who commute to the Hartford area. (Don Treeger / The Republican)

MassDOT said its estimates don’t consider changes in living and working behavior induced by availability of rail. That is, the numbers don’t factor in the possibility that people will move out of high-cost Boston and commute, or that rail service will lead people to seek jobs they otherwise wouldn’t.

U.S. Rep. Richard Neal, D-Springfield, also called for the benefits of behavioral change in the population to be considered. In Washington parlance it’s called dynamic scoring and it was used in part to justify the Trump tax cuts of 2017.

In the case of east-west rail, boosters say dynamic scoring makes sense.

“The whole point of the project is to change commuting patterns,” said state Sen. Eric Lesser, D-Longmeadow. “We need to get a sense of what the benefits of this project will be. There is a cost of not doing this as well.”

State Sen. Adam G. Hinds, D-Pittsfield, said the cost of doing nothing would be further declines in Berkshire County’s population and more congestion in Boston.

“We have a chance here to completely transform the economy of the commonwealth,” he said. “This is a generational opportunity. Once in a 100 years.”

Jonathan Butler, president and CEO of the economic development organization 1Berkshire, said the region has lost 40,000 people in the last two generations.

"That's been the result of public policy decisions," Butler said. "And those same public policy decisions have concentrated wealth and population in the metro Boston area. Now we can make another public policy decision."

Another Berkshires lawmaker, state Rep. William "Smitty " Pignatelli, D-Lenox, spoke out Thursday against any options that would rely on bus service west of Springfield.

“For this to work, it has to be Boston to Pittsfield,” he said. “A bus option is not good enough.”

MassDOT said Thursday that requiring passengers to change from a bus to a train in Springfield or Worcester, or even just to change trains, makes the service less attractive. It’s called a one-seat ride and its very much preferred.

Hinds said MassDOT is missing an opportunity if it doesn’t explore the possibility of extending at least some trains 40 miles west of Pittsfield to Albany and New York’s Capitol Region, which is a whole new market and provides more connectivity with New York City.

Richard Sullivan, president and CEO of the Economic Development Council of Western Massachusetts, said east-west rail is about equity and addressing the needs of Western Massachusetts.

“No one should blanch at the cost,” he said. “Not when you look at what we spend on the MBTA. This is a transformative project that could change the character of the state forever. The benefits will be felt for generations.”

Nancy Creed, president of the Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce, wonders about the cost of a fare. Connecticut subsidizes CTrail service from Springfield through Hartford to New Haven. A one-way ticket to New Haven costs $12. The 18-month-old line just had its millionth passenger, besting expectations and spurring residential development along its path.

“What good is a train to Boston for me if the fare is $60?” she said. “No one is going to take it if it isn’t affordable for a commuter.”