The original link in this thread is a study (which I’m guessing you just don’t like to read) analyzing data trends *and showing no elevated risk.*

But yes, let’s talk about trans people who commit crime. There is a longitudinal study based on actual behavior of every person who underwent gender surgery in Sweden. Their data (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016885), is not based on surveys and self-reports but actual population tracking that showed that trans-identified males retained a male pattern of criminality, and trans-identified females showed an increase in criminality when compared to other females. Specifically, it says, “regarding any crime, male-to-females had a significantly increased risk for crime compared to female controls (aHR 6.6; 95% CI 4.1–10.8) but not compared to males (aHR 0.8; 95% CI 0.5–1.2). This indicates that they retained a male pattern regarding criminality. The same was true regarding violent crime. By contrast, female-to-males had higher crime rates than female controls (aHR 4.1; 95% CI 2.5–6.9) but did not differ from male controls. This indicates a shift to a male pattern regarding criminality and that sex reassignment is coupled to increased crime rate in female-to-males. The same was true regarding violent crime.“ Please note, they’re not saying - am neither am I - that TIMs pose a higher risk than men in general. Just not significantly lower.



So that’s a broad spectrum population risk.



Let’s try another accounting based on data we have available in the U.K..



The 3-4 people in the UK who were murdered this year by a trans person is far outpacing the 0 trans people who were murdered (although the annual average risk for trans people is a little under 1 per year).



Nonetheless, we can compare to female murderers as a group. The UK has 27 females indicted for homicide in 2016 out of a total of 571 homicides. The trans rate should be almost non-existent if they followed female homicide patterns. Instead .6% of the population is committing 11% of the ‘female’ homicides, roughly 20x the expected rate.

Let’s be generous and assume 1% of the population is trans. If all women murdered at the same rate TIMs did, we’d have killed AT LEAST 300-400 people last year, in a country with a total of 571 annual homicides. Using the more conservative 0.6% population estimate of trans people, that would lead us to expect that women would kill 667 people annually - which is more than the number of actual murders that took place. How’s that for ‘bringing it to parity’? Again, we see that TIMs have a male criminal homicide pattern.

But the homicide numbers are small, so let’s compare sex offenses. This transcrime UK website (http://transcrimeuk.com/) documents 18 sex offenses committed by TIMs. UK total data of sex offenses committed by women is 264 female sex offenders last year (1.8% of all sex offenses.) That number includes transwomen, so remove 18 of those crimes from sex offenses committed by actual women. We now compare 246 women to 18 (TIM) offenses. Using the same population estimate of .6% that was used in the victim statistics for TIMs, if they committing sex offenses at the same rate as women, we would expect to see 1.4 sex offenses being committed by TIMs. So TIMs are committing sex offenses at roughly 13 times the frequency that women do. Let’s try the parity argument again - if women committed sex offenses at the same rate TIMs did, we would log 3000 offenses annually instead of 246. Again, we can conclude that trans sex offenses follow a male pattern, not a female one.

This analysis is made possible because the UK gov. publishes all their crime data here: http://cps.gov.uk/data/index.html

Annual homicides: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/compendium/focusonviolentcrimeandsexualoffences/yearendingmarch2016/homicide