One of the biggest keys to winning in the NFL is converting on third down on offense and getting off the field on third downs on defense. This isn’t an overly controversial take as the best teams in the NFL typically do a good job of extending drives on third down.

In 2017, the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles had the two highest-third down conversion rates in the NFL, according to Team Rankings. It wasn’t a coincidence that those were two of the best teams in the NFL and met each other in the NFC Championship game. The great teams win on this down in the NFL. Period.

The Raiders finished 11th in third-down conversion percentage, converting more than 40 percent of the time. A very solid number for a relatively young squad.

However, Derek Carr struggled to convert on third downs. According to Warren Sharp’s 2018 Football Preview, Carr converted third downs into first downs just 35 percent of the time, well below league average. Here is a breakdown of Carr’s raw passing statistics on third down by distance:

As you can see, Carr’s passer rating on third down came in at just 82.1. Compare that to the rest of the quarterbacks in the league and you can see that he produced only at an average level last season.

Carr and the Raiders were very successful at converting third downs within seven yards (55% conversion rate) but struggled outside of that. According to Warren Sharp, the Raiders converted just 31 percent of the time from 8-10 yards out on third down and just nine percent of the time on 3rd and 11+. Most quarterbacks struggle when asked to convert long third downs, but it was a real problem for the Raiders last season.

Could that be due to Carr’s lack of faith in his offensive line? Possibly. It might also be attributed to Cooper’s down year. But whatever the problem was, the Raiders need to get better at converting longer third downs this season if they want to be considered one of the best offenses in the NFL. Hopefully, Jon Gruden will have some of the answers. If not, it could be another rough year for the Raiders and their fans.