Insiders say Ryan's budget won't be much different than last year's. Ryan floats change to Medicare plan

Paul Ryan’s budget will show how Republicans can balance a budget that’s trillions of dollars out of whack. But the most significant unresolved issue comes down to a minuscule number: one year.

Ryan — the House Budget Committee chairman — has privately been floating the idea of allowing his changes to Medicare to kick in for Americans younger than 56. In previous budgets, those 55 and older were exempted from his plan to turn Medicare into a premium-support — or voucher — program.


It might not seem like much of a distinction — and it doesn’t help Republicans achieve their stated goal of balancing the budget in 10 years.

But it has sharp political teeth.

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Republicans have been arguing for two years that their plans wouldn’t affect Medicare coverage for anyone older than 54, and Democrats will surely pounce on any change as Republicans breaking faith with their own pledge to seniors. The Ryan budget served as a favorite battering ram for Democrats against Republican candidates on the campaign trail.

Ryan, according to Republicans familiar with his pitch, wants to take a stand on a program they say doesn’t have a future for the next generation of retirees if major reforms aren’t made soon. If the GOP gradually makes the argument to change the program incrementally, they hope the public will begin to accept it.

Republican leaders just want to pass a budget, and they’ll most likely back whichever plan eases that path.

( Also on POLITICO: House GOP rolls out stopgap spending plan)

The Wisconsin Republican plans to roll out the outlines of his budget Wednesday in a pen-and-pad session with reporters, and the age issue is one of only a handful of unresolved questions remaining. Also in the Ryan budget: a filibuster-proof pathway toward tax and entitlement reform — a process known as budget reconciliation. It’s the way Republicans think they’ll be able to jump-start a grand deficit compromise with Senate Democrats and Obama.

Balancing the budget in the next decade will be markedly easier, given the sequester’s spending cuts and the fresh injection of new governmental revenue at the beginning of 2013.

The truth, insiders say, is the new Ryan budget isn’t much different than last year’s — or the one from the year before.

“It’s not going to be that much different, except for the fact that it will balance in 10 years,” Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told POLITICO in an interview.

GOP leaders acknowledge the budget has potential downsides: It requires deep cuts to achieve balance in the next decade. But they think they will pass the spending blueprint easily.

It’s a telling test for the GOP, one that pits ideology against pragmatism and also underscores how far the center of gravity in the House Republican Conference has shifted to the right in just a few years. When Ryan first started talking about changing Medicare, many of his colleagues thought he was leading them on a kamikaze mission. Now, they’re arguing over whether it would be better to exempt nine years or 10 years’ worth of people from the changes, even though the plan has no chance of becoming law.

In a sign of how far the party has drifted to the right: The Republican Study Committee — the party’s conservative bloc — might not pen its own budget this year, as it customarily does. The group is “not going to make any final decision until we see what the House Budget Committee comes out with,” said RSC Chairman Steve Scalise.

“Our objective from the beginning has been to have a budget that balances in the 10-year window and then to have bold policies behind it that actually reform government and actually allow us to get our economy back on track,” Scalise said in an interview.

But raising the age to 56 could put a lot of House Republicans in a bad spot.

“I don’t like it,” said Illinois Rep. Randy Hultgren. “I’ll listen to anything. My preference probably would be for it to stay where it’s at, 55, but I want to hear what Chairman Ryan has to say and why he thinks it’s important to move it up a year.”

If moderates peel off, conservatives — emboldened by Ryan, personally, and his policy prescriptions — could help make up the difference.

“Will it be a tough vote? Yeah, budget votes are always tough,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who is on the Budget Committee and counts votes for GOP leadership. “But I think we’ll get there. And I think the [House GOP Conference] wants us to get [to balance] in 10 years. But you’re going to be attacked no matter what you do. … So most of these attacks we’ve dealt with before, and you do have the clarity that this gets to balance in 10 years, CBO certified. So I think that’s a good place to be.”

Kevin Smith, a spokesman for Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), said, “Chairman Ryan is working closely with the leaders and our members to craft a balanced budget that will help create jobs and grow the economy.”

Ryan spokesman William Allison said, “Chairman Ryan has made clear that the House Budget Committee will advance a responsible, balanced budget. Every family must balance its budget, and Washington should too. We invite the president and Senate Democrats to join us in this common-sense goal.”

“With respect to Medicare, House Republicans will again put forward a real solution to protect and strengthen Medicare for current seniors and future generations,” Allison said in an emailed statement. “His reforms ensure no changes for those in or near retirement, a sharp contrast to the real harm inflicted on seniors by the president’s health-care law.”

It also proves another test for Boehner, McCarthy, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.). Republicans have relied on Democratic votes for much of the 113th Congress, using the minority to pass the Violence Against Women Act, an increaseof the debt ceiling and other measures.

Democratic leaders are concerned that as many as 20 to 30 of their members will cross the aisle and vote for a GOP-authored funding bill that keeps the government open beyond March 27.

But Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her top lieutenants have no such fears about the Ryan budget.

“I can’t see any Democrats voting for the Ryan budget,” said a top House Democratic aide on Monday. “I don’t anticipate we’ll lose anyone.”

John Bresnahan contributed to this report.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated the age group for which the Medicare change would take place.

CORRECTION: Corrected by: David Cohen @ 03/05/2013 01:00 AM CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated the age group for which the Medicare change would take place.