FPL Gameweek 4 is on the way and already we have seen a flurry of wildcards and points hits. The time for a cool head is now, minor surgery at this point could pay dividends as teams become more settled and fixture swings begin. I take a look at some of the transfer options you should be considering for the next few weeks.

Man City, Sterling, KDB or Aguero

You could be forgiven for having a Man City attacking triple up here. All 3 of these guys are guaranteed points. I have already written long form articles regarding Sterling and KDB. So I do not really need to cover those two in depth too much. Safe to say that Sterling is in white hot form with 5 goals in the opening 3 games, he has recorded an xG of 1.65 so has overshot that by a considerable amount. The scary thing is I see no reason why he won’t stop scoring, specially with KDB back in the fold.

Aguero is just doing Aguero things, he already has 4 goals this season and looks like he can score with any chance. Above is his shot map, what you may notice is that every shot that has hit the target has gone in. A few people have asked me can Aguero cover Sterling, and that is a really difficult question to answer.

I think that Sterling ultimately scores more points over the season than Aguero, also Sterling does not have a young hungry striker looming over him ready to take his place. I think you have just got to be smart and rotate your premiums accordingly. I think that whilst Raheem is scoring goals you stick with him. His ownership and potential captain percentage are not worth betting against… yet.

The Liverpool Wide 2

I am going to keep this one short as again I have recently written an in-depth article on Mane and Salah. Now my original plan was to bring Mane in on the wildcard, however after Salah’s heroics against Arsenal and the fact his ownership took a bit of a drop I think I will be sticking with the Egyptian.

This could have easily been the other around in a different fixture. The top shot plot is Salah’s and the bottom one is Mane. I think the fact that Salah will get pens if Milner is not on the pitch just edges it with. As far as creativity goes Salah created 1 assist and has totalled 0.42 xA, resulting in 5 shot assists for the team. Surprisingly Mane is currently outdoing his teammate. Mane has 1 assist the same as Salah however he has totalled 8 shot assists resulting in 0.98 xA. I was not aware of this until I checked whilst writing. It is something to consider and does give Mane owners hope that the Senegalese attacker can match Salah for points. I will still hold Salah for the moment but its one to keep an eye on.

Liverpool Defensive Assets

Every team has a collection of these players, in the twitter community most have at least 3 but 4 or 5 is pretty common occurrence. Whether its defenders, or the premium midfield assets, you would be a brave man to go without. Manchester City are at home to Brighton and Liverpool face a trip to Burnley. Liverpool having the trickier fixture of the two, I fully expect Burnley to test that Liverpool backline.

If Liverpool can manage the long balls that Burnley will pressure that Liverpool defence with then this could well be the first clean sheet for Liverpool this season. But just where will the threat come from in this Burnley side and is there any long term prospects from Sean Dyche’s team?

Burnley Attack

I expect that Burnley will try to go long to bypass the famous Liverpool press. The only problem with that is a certain Dutch centre half. If Burnley are going to have any kind of success then Chris Wood will need to have a very good game. Will need to use his ability to hold the ball up and win some aerial duels to build a platform for Burnley to attack from. Burnley won’t go long all the time but to push that press back a bit they will utilise the long ball. It will be whether Chris Wood can match the aerial prowess of Virgil Van Dijk.

Against Wolves Chris Wood had 2 opportunities that recorded 0.74 xG. Both were the result of long balls dragging one of the centre backs wide. I think given how big the gaps between the fullbacks and centre backs get for Liverpool there is a chance that Wood could capitalise.

The above graphic shows the amount of aerial duels Wood has won and whereabouts on the pitch that they happened.

It has been all about Ashley Barnes in the opening few games which is totally understandable. Above is Barnes shot map for the season, he has been on fire and scored four goals. At least from the 3 data points we do currently have Barnes seems the biggest threat to those Liverpool clean sheet points. Twelve shots, 7 on target, 4 goals, across 3 games, numbers even Leo Messi would be sort of ok with.

This passmap is Burnley’s from when they played Arsenal. Despite the fact they lost that match I think it is the best I have seen them play in a long time. What you will notice though is how high that defensive line is, if they do that against Liverpool I think they’ll get murdered.

FPL wise not sure I am bringing Burnley assets in for this game however looking at the above games Burnley have some good fixtures. I think that Pope will be a good option and will offer some budget keeper relief. But Barnes form may well continue whilst offering Chris Wood the opportunity to find some form.

Chelsea

It is looking like at least from an attacking sense it is the time to start planning for Chelsea assets. I tipped Mason Mount last week so I won’t repeat myself. Instead I will take a look at Tammy Abraham, I am not sure if Abraham is good enough to be a starter for a team wanting to qualify for the Champions League however he looks to be Lampard’s guy.

A double bag against Norwich it is always nice to get your first goals of the campaign. Both goals showed different sides of Tammy’s game, the first was a cool finish on the half volley into the bottom corner.

The above image shows just how far out Abraham was when he shot, keeper should do better but Abraham showed some nice dribbling technique beating the two defenders. This little flash of brilliance really peaked my interest.

Just look at those fixture for the next 11 gameweeks, they’re a thing of beauty. Kante and Rudiger are pretty close to a return and Callum Hudson-Odoi is rumoured to be targeting late September for his comeback. From an FPL perspective if you’re going to be wildcarding soon like I am then Chelsea players should be in your thoughts. Currently its between Mount and Abraham but when CHO is back I think I will get him straight into my side. With my wildcard on the horizon next week I think I will ultimately end up with Tammy Abraham but I will write an in depth wildcard strategy for the next gameweek.

Norwich

Norwich have started the season all systems go. Daniel Farke has not changed his play style and is sticking to his principles. This is fantastic news for us FPL managers, they’re going to offer us a few attacking options. Many have jumped on Teemu Pukki, the Finnish striker currently is owned by 33.9% of managers. As one in three teams now own him there could be some safety in numbers. He is proving a handful for Premier league defenders and I shall analyse some of his data, however Pukki cannot score every week (can he?) so the other options in that side may offer some differential goodness.

I think that there are two other potential options in this Norwich team whilst Onel Hernandez and Josip Drmic are injured injured. Todd Cantwell and Emiliano Buendia are very attractive options. Cantwell has recently seen a surge in ownership as a playing budget midfielder. His ownership is still sitting at 12% so still some value in picking him up even if he has seen a price rise. Buendia currently sits at 0.7% ownership which earns him the Uber differential title. But are either any good or should we just stick with Pukki, lets discuss!

Norwich on paper at least typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, and from what I seen of them so far everything is set up to get the best out of Pukki. The above passmap is from the defeat of Chelsea, as you would expect I think from an analysis standpoint at least what impresses me about Norwich is how versatile they can be with how they can attack. They can keep the ball reasonable well and play short passing but they can also shift the ball vertically if they need to and are also handy on the counter attack.

Teemu Pukki

You’re probably wondering if you need to jump on Pukki and early on in the season there is certainly no harm making transfers based on ownership. Currently in FPL the template is still forming especially with so many active wildcards early on. Pukki is an absolute animal currently statistically, 5 goals, 1 assist, xG total of 1.28 and has had 11 shots at goal, 8 of which have hit the target and 5 have resulted in goals.

Above is Pukki’s season heatmap and also his shot map for the premier league season so far. Everyone keeps saying that he cannot keep scoring every week and he won’t, but thats not to say he isn’t going to go on and have a very good season. He only has to score ten more goals in 33 games to have what would be considered a top season. I think the reality is that he will probably get closer to twenty goals now after a blistering start.

As you can see by the heatmap he is doing most of his work in the box, working the half space between the centre half and fullback very well. I really want in on the so called Pukki Party but I am going to gamble on him blanking vs West Ham and then also against Man City in the following gameweek. It could prove a dangerous strategy because if he scores he is going to go over £7m. My plan is more in hope than expectation but you never know.

All this being said there has to come a point when he slows down, you can see from the graphic above Norwich’s shots against Chelsea. 6 shots at goal, 5 on target and 2 goals. It has to regress at some point, but whilst he is white hot and has that scary sized ownership picking up Pukki as a so called shield pick is a move I can totally understand.

Buendia and Cantwell

These two currently are the creators of the team, Cantwell is a very versatile player, he even filled in a right wing-back for the last 10 minutes vs Chelsea. From an FPL perspective though Cantwell is very valuable. His price has gone up two notches to £4.7m but he currently represents a budget midfielder who is not only getting minutes but is a credible potential point earner.

He found himself in a great position for Pukki to just slot him in for a tap in. It shows that he does have the awareness to get in the box and finish moves.

The pass graphics above are very different, the top pass graphic is from the Newcastle game whilst the below one is from the Chelsea game. Cantwell recorded returns in both, basically the long and short of it is this is the budget midfielder you want. He can easily be rotated and returns points what more do you need.

Buendia is going to cost you a little bit more and comes in at £6m, he is everywhere as you can see on his pass graphic, this was taken from the Chelsea match. You are getting some goal threat with Buendia he has recorded 0.2 xG so far this season. He has had 4 shots across the 3 games with an accuracy of 75%, he is also on free kicks. It’s his creativity though that shines through, currently sitting on 2 assists with an xA of 0.82. He contributes significantly to the attack, he has 9 shot assists and is also on corners. Whilst corners only have around a 3 percent conversion rate for goals FPL is a game of inches and every little helps.

Norwich FPL Takeaways GW4

It would seem that Pukki as well as being a good source of points, is becoming a bit of a shield pick. Given Norwich’s fixtures if you have other issues in your team then gameweek 6 may be the opportune time to get him in.

Buendia has some potential in my eyes, he just may be a little overpriced. I think he will be a steady stream of points but you have some big players in that range. Mason Mount, Dani Ceballos, Harry Wilson et al may all offer better value. Cantwell on the other is someone you should seriously consider if you need a budget midfield option in your squad. He currently is the joint 5th highest scoring midfielder in the game. Obviously he won’t be there at the end of the season but if you choose your fixtures well he will chip in with points.

FPL is really hotting up now as we head into gameweek 4. Some really interesting picks are opening themselves up. Thanks for reading this article. I should mention that my plan for this week is to bring in Haller and I realise I have not written about him. Quite frankly its 00:14 in the morning and I am up at 05:30 for work so if. Ever want to get this article I had to have a cut off point lol. Anyway good luck for the coming gameweek and may your arrows be green… just not as green as mine.