Peter Dutton unintentionally revealed a nagging failure in Australia's hardline border policy last week.

The Home Affairs Minister had been asked a Dorothy Dixer in question time on the "importance of a strong, consistent and well-developed border-protection policy".

Mr Dutton started: "Everybody knows in this country that the Government needs to keep control of its borders."

So far so good, Minister.

He went on: "And people know that when Mr Howard left office in 2007 there were four people in detention, including no children."

Mmmm. This is where it's interesting, because comparisons aren't always helpful.

There are between 40 and 50 children transferees on Nauru, Manus or elsewhere in Papua New Guinea ( Supplied: World Vision )

If the Howard government is its measure of success, the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government has done one thing brilliantly, but struggled at another.

Operation Sovereign Borders has worked tremendously well in stopping the boats. Indeed, Labor has vowed to retain it should it win next year's federal election.

But with the maritime gate now firmly shut, it's what's been done with those who got through where the Government's struggling.

And this is why Mr Dutton's citing of John Howard's record should ring alarm inside the Coalition, because this is where the Government is now feeling political heat, including from its own MPs.

Operation Sovereign Borders has now run almost as long as the Howard government's so-called "Pacific Solution".

Under Mr Howard, 1,637 people were detained on Nauru and Manus between 2001 and 2007. The combined offshore detention population peaked at 1,515 in February 2002.

The Howard government practically emptied its offshore detention centres in six years. ( ABC TV )

Since the implementation of Operation Sovereign Borders, the combined offshore detention population peaked at 2,450 in April 2014.

As of now, there are about 1,240 transferees on Nauru, Manus or elsewhere in Papua New Guinea. This includes between 40 and 50 children on Nauru.

So whereas the Howard government practically emptied its offshore detention centres in six years, the current Government has only managed half the task.

And that was the shrewd nature of the Howard government approach: it combined uncompromising policy and harsh public rhetoric with a below-the-radar effort to shift detainees out of Manus and Nauru.

It must be said that when the Tony Abbott-led Coalition won power in 2013 it wasn't just dealing with the Nauru and Manus caseloads, it was dealing with 17 full-to-the-brim detention centres that had been reopened by Labor — many in the 12 months prior (an astonishing 25,173 people arrived on 403 boats in 2012-13 alone).

The Coalition also adopted Kevin Rudd's July 2013 declaration that, "any asylum seeker who arrives in Australia by boat will have no chance of being settled in Australia as refugees", adding to the complexity of its task.

The fact there are dozens of children on Nauru is seen as an abhorrence to the majority of the community. ( AAP: Department of Immigration )

But as the focus is now on how the Government plans to clear Nauru and Manus, it's important to understand how the Howard government did it.

Of the 1,637 people kept by the Howard government in offshore detention, 483 voluntarily returned home (including 420 of the 786 Afghans) and one died on Nauru (also an Afghan).

And of the 1,153 people who were resettled, 705 were eventually brought to Australia and 401 were taken in by New Zealand (including 208 of the 433 asylum seekers rescued by the Norwegian freighter MV Tampa in August 2001).

That is, 96 per cent of the asylum seekers who arrived during the 2001-07 Howard years, and who didn't return home, ended up living in Australia or the Land of the Long White Cloud.

Of the rest, 21 asylum seekers were resettled in Sweden, 16 in Canada, six in Denmark and four in Norway.

The Coalition has discovered to its detriment that the public has only so much tolerance for harsh policy done in its name.

And the fact it's been so slow in reducing the numbers has contributed to the issue becoming a nasty political pinch point. The fact there are still dozens of children on Nauru is seen as an abhorrence to the vast majority of the community.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison could be facing his toughest challenge yet. ( Nicholas Haggarty )

The Coalition may have been marked up in the past for having — and continuing to have — a tough approach on border protection, but it is being steadily marked down for allowing effective indefinite limbo for hundreds of people, even if this uncertainty has encouraged 823 people on Nauru and Manus to return home.

The 1,240 transferees on Nauru and Manus, most of whom are refugees, may be of contested legal responsibility according to the Government (although not according to the UNHCR) but the changed community sentiment on the issue indicates Australians believe they are very much our moral responsibility.

And with history as a guide, many of those people still languishing on Nauru and Manus might eventually have to be brought to Australia or New Zealand.

Some of this is happening anyway. Not to New Zealand, despite the longstanding offer from our Tasman neighbour to take 150 a year.

But hundreds of people have been quietly transferred to Australia from Nauru, sometimes under Federal Court order, and will likely never return.

Even if the United States takes its full complement of 1,200, as agreed between Malcolm Turnbull and Barack Obama, there would still be 400-odd people needing resettlement.

File photo shows Nibok refugee settlement on Nauru, September 4, 2018. ( AP: Jason Oxenham )

In recent weeks there have been signs the Government has realised public patience is wearing thin.

In the past fortnight alone, as many as 30 children have been brought to Australia from Nauru along with their families to live in community detention.

The Government is refusing to give precise numbers, but refugee advocates say there are still about 40 children on Nauru, down from 77 in mid-October (and 137 in May).

Perhaps this is what Scott Morrison meant when he said last week he would "work quietly and methodically" when it came to getting people off Nauru.

For a Prime Minister with an expertise in marketing, this could be his toughest challenge yet: projecting a message of unrelenting deterrence to the people smugglers while also acknowledging an electorate no longer tolerant for what looks like their indefinite island detention.

Loading...