Former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to be the butt of several digs from other candidates at the first Democratic presidential debate of 2019. | Sean Rayford/Getty Images 2020 democratic debates 'The whole thing is a wild card, let’s be honest' Here's what 20 Democratic insiders are looking for in the first debates.

Will Bernie Sanders burn down the stage? Will Joe Biden be able to fend off a barrage of attacks? Will the 1-percenters throw bombs at their rivals to get attention, or play it safe in their first introduction to a national audience?

Even the most plugged-in Democrats have no idea what to expect from the first debates of the 2020 campaign, which kick off Wednesday at 9 p.m.


“The whole thing is a wild card, let’s be honest,” said Dan Sena, former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Politico interviewed nearly 20 Democratic elected officials, party chiefs, labor leaders, activists and operatives, including several in early primary states, to find out what questions they’re looking to have answered once all is said and done Wednesday and Thursday nights. Here’s what they told us.



Will the candidates defy predictions and play nice?



The overarching question on the minds of Democratic insiders is how candidates attack — and handle attacks by — their opponents. They expect Sanders, who has already bashed Biden for supporting the Iraq War and free trade deals, to take more swipes at the front-runner. But he’s hardly alone.

They predict Biden could be on the receiving end of subtle and not-so-subtle hits from everyone from Pete Buttigieg (on “generational change”), to Kirsten Gillibrand (over his Hyde Amendment flip-flop), to Kamala Harris (for his comments about working with segregationists in the Senate).

“He’ll probably be the second-most popular name used in the debate after Trump,” said Douglas Herman, a California-based strategist. “People are starting to get comfortable contrasting themselves with Joe Biden.”

But there’s also another school of thought going into the debate: That some of the more viable candidates will be driven primarily by the imperative to “do no harm” and therefore resist launching attacks. Since it’s only the first debate, advisers to several campaigns said they’re far more focused on ensuring their contender make a good impression in the seven to 10 minutes of speaking time they expect to have than on squandering it talking about somebody else.

But the incentives are different for the low-polling candidates. A memorable moment on Wednesday or Thursday night could determine whether they qualify for later debates. For them, going after Biden or Sanders will probably be a lot more tempting.

If the field does mostly play nice, the expected Biden pile-on could turn out to be a boon to the former vice president, allowing him to keep up the contrast he’s trying to project with President Donald Trump. A sharp attack line on Trump by the front-runner (triggering a Trump tweet in response?) could end up being a big story line. Others like Sanders, Buttigieg and Harris risk giving Biden that running room if they don’t forcefully confront him.



Who projects best as someone who can stand up to — and defeat — Trump?



Viral moments aside, bottom line Democrats want a candidate they’re confident can beat Trump. They admit it’s tough to put a finger on exactly what that means, but think they’ll probably know it when they see it.

“I’m looking for whether people can go nose to nose and toes to toes with Donald Trump,” said Troy Price, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. “It’s about message. It’s how they’re carrying themselves on the stage. It’s looking to show that they can be a good contrast with Donald Trump.”

Todd Rutherford, leader of South Carolina’s state House Democrats, said one of his key criteria for a Trump vanquisher is someone who “would do well in the black barbershop.”

“It’s being quick-witted. It’s taking the facts and wrapping them in punchlines,” he said. “It’s somebody that take hits and responds not necessarily with ad hominem attacks, but certainly with attacks that make their point.”



Which of the candidates could make it in Hollywood?



With sitting senators and former governors wading in the bottom of the polls, many candidates are desperate for a viral performance.

Democrats said they can’t wait to see what they do to try to stage their “breakout moment.”

“It is a remarkable dance that particularly those polling below a few percent are going to have to perform,” said Scott Mulhauser, a former aide to Biden. “You have a limited number of minutes to make your case and stand out, but you have to do so in a way that is not too forced or unnatural.”

Intentionally setting out to appear genuine and natural: It’s not an easy thing to pull off. But if they can manage to do it, Julián Castro, Michael Bennet and Andrew Yang — yes, Andrew Yang — were named by Democrats as lesser-known candidates who might catch fire in front of a national audience.



What kind of media treatment will the female candidates get?



The media’s coverage of the 2016 election left an especially big dent in the psyches of Democrats. Now, party leaders, elected officials and operatives are hyperfocused on how journalists will report on the debates.

“I’ll be closely monitoring the media coverage surrounding the debate and candidates,” said Carolyn DeWitt, president of the youth voting organization Rock the Vote. “Media companies played a major role in setting the tone and shaping [the] narrative during the 2016 election.”

Democrats, unsurprisingly, are not optimistic. They suspect the debate moderators will give the top-tier candidates much more time to speak than lesser-known hopefuls. They believe the press will anoint two or three candidates as the winners. And they’re skeptical that journalists will resist the urge to analyze the two nights through the lens of personality.

Women, in particular, worry that the female candidates won’t be treated fairly.

“Do people say so-and-so was too shrill and she didn’t seem likable, or have we learned our lesson from 2016?” asked Karen Finney, a former spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. “I’m looking for what language is used to describe women’s ideas.”



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Which pet causes do they push?



The party’s base is increasingly looking for 2020 candidates to prove they’re genuinely committed to an issue and not just paying lip service — by using the bully pulpit to shame corporations, for example, or unionizing their own campaigns. That means using their speaking time to talk about their pet issue — immigration, climate change, income inequality, “Medicare for All,” racial justice, you name it — regardless of what question they’re asked.

How candidates devote their precious minutes in the spotlight will offer a window into what they might prioritize in the White House, activists say.

“If Democratic presidential candidates do not see fit to discuss climate change in the 8½ minutes they have on the debate stage, then why should I trust them to dedicate an even more precious resource, which is the legislative calendar, to that issue?” asked Sean McElwee, co-founder of the liberal think tank Data for Progress. “Anyone who doesn’t talk about climate change should be considered dead on arrival for progressive Democrats.”



Who nails the aftermath?



The days after the debates might be as important as the debates themselves.

The 48 hours after they end will offer a whole new list of metrics by which to judge the field: How much money did they raise? How many volunteers held watch parties for them? How often did Facebook users share clips of their performances?

The figures will help assess not only how the candidates resonated with voters, but their level of grassroots support. They’ll also serve as a test of whether the Democrats are running campaigns prepared to take their best seconds, package them for social media, and raise money off them.

“If you suddenly have your moment, do you have the staff, the resources, the capability to keep it going? Do you have validators in Iowa and New Hampshire?” asked Kelly Dietrich, founder of the National Democratic Training Committee. “If you don’t, then OK, great. I hope you frame the nice articles about you in the office.”

Christopher Cadelago contributed to this report.

