Revolutions, famously, are devoured by their children. It was characteristic of Indian socialists that they waited until senility to gobble up the caste-and-community insurrection conceived by Dr Ram Manohar Lohia in the 1950s and 1960s. There will be many stories within and around the 2014 general elections. A principal occurrence will be the earthquake that swallows the socialists. Its epicenter will be Bihar, but the perimeter of devastation will extend across Uttar Pradesh.

The last three heirs of Lohia, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav surely know in their hearts what their minds might refuse to admit. The party’s over. Ever since they first sipped power at the fountain of coalitions in 1967, one fact has been transparently clear. Indian socialists have always been far better at politics than government. Such talent should not be underestimated in a democracy. It is difficult enough to win elections even after delivering on the promise of incremental prosperity. To do so through sheer emotional arithmetic is genius.

Since that high point of emotion in 1989, when temple, mosque and caste dominated the debate, Lohia’s children have ruled Bihar with a tenacity that remains a formidable tribute to their rhetorical craft.

Their formula began to seem infallible: the Chief Minister’s loyal castes were rewarded with a stake in power, allies were kept onside with marginal benefits, and the vital Muslim vote was patched on with a debilitating concoction of illusion and fear. Muslims got prayer and tokenism; jobs went to others. Religion became the opium of the people.

Nitish Kumar’s brief encounter with glory had little to do with the quality of governance. He was the much-needed relief vessel after the Lalu shipwreck. His years in power were primarily consumed by a relentless search of sub-castes to knead into a political dividend. It was vote bank politics, but with rural banks, a low capital base and insufficient transactions. As a long-term business model, it offered little chance of success. Now that Nitish Kumar has run out of time and ideas, the alibi game has begun. It won’t work.

His problem was compounded by the disability that Indian socialism, like its cousins across the globe, simply did not have the legs to stride into the 21st century. Nor did its leaders possess the imagination to re-invent their philosophy, and adjust dogma to new demands. Its office-bearers became its pall-bearers.

Today’s voter is sick to the stomach of deceptive jargon. Politics, unfortunately, has become a malevolent word. Indians want jobs, security and empowerment through economic growth. They are equally tired of the misuse of secularism to justify corruption, dynasty and piteously weak administration. In any case, when the opening sentence of a book on Narendra Modi’s views states that secularism is the equality of all faiths before the law, when he avers in his speeches that the only religion of a politician is the Constitution of India, there is not much left to discuss apart from riots. Voters then compare facts. They know that a former Gujarat minister is in jail, while no one has been punished for the Sikh massacres of 1984 or the vicious Mumbai riots of 1992-93.

This is why Ram Vilas Paswan, who left the BJP coalition a decade ago over riots, will become a partner in 2014 and address a rally alongside Modi in Bihar. This is why America’s ambassador Nancy Powell goes with conciliatory flowers to Ahmedabad. This is why BJP is picking up new allies each week. Once Bihar changes, you might say, there is nothing left to change.

The long-term consequences are significant. For four decades, Indian socialists have denied BJP primacy in the crucial Ganga-Jamuna belt. BJP was successful in displacing socialists in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan (Lohia’s home province), but could never quite get their act together in UP and Bihar. The party touched nadir when two years ago Mulayam Singh Yadav won UP by unprecedented margins, and Nitish Kumar chose this psychological moment to distance himself from BJP, and start a flirtation with Congress. Today, instead of being wooed, Nitish has been isolated. And Lalu Yadav, who was so certain about his own resurrection and Paswan’s subservience that he began issuing ultimatums, has been hit by a thunderbolt from blue skies.

If Bihar’s personality-driven socialists cannot recover, and it does seem unlikely, then the confrontation in UP and Bihar will become a direct contest between BJP and Congress. This process might take a little longer in UP, since Mayawati remains a formidable third force, but the trend cannot be missed.

No party can achieve a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own without significant support from UP and Bihar. 2014 could be the starting point of the return journey to stable government in Delhi.