No Covid positive cases in 2 days, Odisha officials say curve may be flattening

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Updated: Apr 17, 2020 13:44 IST

Odisha hasn’t recorded any new Coronavirus infections among 1,940 samples tested in the past two days, leading officials to believe that the state’s curve for the spread of Covid-19 is beginning to flatten.

The state’s six Covid-19 laboratories tested 1,197 samples on Wednesday, the highest number for a single day, and another 843 samples were tested on Thursday. The bulk of the tests were done using the Cobas 6800 machine at the Regional Medical Research Centre in Bhubaneswar.

Officials said the lack of new infections among almost 2,000 samples indicated the spread of the virus was limited to a few clusters in Odisha.

The director of the National Health Mission, Shalini Pandit, said that of the 1,940 samples tested, a bulk came from districts outside Khurda, which is among the 170 “red zones” in the country. Khurda alone has accounted for 46 of the 60 positive cases in Odisha.

Also read: Covid-19 cases in India climb to 13,387, death toll at 437

“The sample base had a good mix of tribal and non-tribal districts of the entire state. Since the samples from high-risk districts like the tribal areas have not tested positive, there is little possibility of getting more cases from there,” Pandit said.

She noted there were no positive cases from tribal-dominated districts such as Malkangiri and Bolangir, where none of the 500-odd samples produced a positive result.

With just 60 positive cases from 7,577 samples tested so far, Odisha has the lowest ratio (0.007) of positive cases to samples in the country. Kerala, which has recorded 394 positive cases so far, has higher ratio of 0.022.

Officials, however, said the state couldn’t afford to be complacent.

Also read: Nearly 13% of Covid-19 patients recover across India, up from last week’s 8%

Development commissioner Suresh Mohapatra said: “Though a majority of samples tested so far are negative in the state, we should not be happy thinking that the Coronavirus is defeated. We plan to conduct 2,000 to 3,000 tests a day. We will be confident only after conducting tests on a large scale.”

Odisha’s health minister Naba Das said that to scale up testing, the state will soon start “pool testing” of samples of suspected cases. Under this method, multiple swab samples are pooled together and tested.

Pool testing is done in areas with low prevalence of infections (positivity rate of less than 2%). According to the Indian Council of Medical Research’s advisory on pool testing algorithm, “polymerase chain reaction” screening of a specimen pool comprising multiple samples is done. In case a pool tests positive, then each sample is individually tested.

The Cobas 6800 machine, one of only two such machines in India, does real-time RT-PCR tests and can handle more than 700 samples in six hours.

Meanwhile, the director of public health, Ajit Kumar Mohanty, told reporters the state has already started random tests in 21 districts that haven’t been affected by the virus.

Of Odisha’s 30 districts, Covid-19 cases have been reported from only nine. Mohanty said one person in every 10,000 in each district will be tested.

Epidemiologists, however, said Odisha needs to follow the Kerala model of more tests till it can safely claim to have flattened the curve.

“As of now it’s very difficult to predict (about flattening the curve). Unless tested, the undetected asymptomatic cases will cause more harm as they would be spreading continuously for a long period,” said Nalini Kanta Tripathy, a community medicine specialist at PGIEMR in Chandigarh.

In a separate development, chief secretary Asit Tripathy asked officials to inform people in six containment zones in Bhubaneswar – Surya Nagar, Bomikhal, Satya Nagar, Sunarpada and Kapila Prasad – about the availability of essential items.

“The decision to disseminate information in the containment zones was taken after we found out people were in the dark over all that is happening around them. Also, loudspeakers should be used to update information,” said Asit Tripathy. “People with disabilities, those living alone, pregnant women and aged persons should be given priority in these clusters.”