As Oregon economists calculated their May revenue forecast, they had new figures to add in: marijuana taxes.

They estimated marijuana sales will create about $210 million in taxes through the middle of 2019.

That may sound like a lot, but local officials reached by the Statesman Journal don't expect the money to add significantly to their budgets.

The Salem-Keizer School District, for example, stands to get about $5 million.

Salem-Keizer could use the money. "Certainly, we need more resources," Salem-Keizer spokesman Jay Remy said. If there were a net increase in the amount of money they get from the state, that would be "fantastic," he said.

But Salem-Keizer’s total operating budget is $677.5 million for the 2016-2017 school year, Remy said. That includes sources like federal funds.

“That ($5 million) would equate to about four days of school,” Remy said.

Schools are meant to be the big winner from marijuana sales.

Economists estimate most of the roughly $210 million through June 2019 would go toward schools, saying $84.1 million might be in store for them.

Under current statute, the money would go toward the Common School Fund, a kind of trust fund.

The marijuana money would go toward the fund, bumping up its total value and meaning a bigger twice-yearly payout for Oregon school districts.

The State Land Board oversees the distribution of money from there, said Department of State Lands spokeswoman Julie Curtis.

"Their policy is 4 percent of the rolling three-year average value of the fund," Curtis said. "That helps smooth out the ups and downs of the stock market."

It's not like $19 million goes into the fund, $19 million goes out of the fund, she said, and the Common School Fund was not supposed to get any tax revenue until this fall.

SB 845 A, though, would change the law so 30 percent of the marijuana money goes toward the State School Fund, with 10 percent going toward the Community College Support Fund.

The bill this month made its way through the state Senate, with a public hearing and work session scheduled for May 30 at 1 p.m. in Hearing Room A in front of the House Committee on Revenue.

That would mean about $63 million going toward the State School Fund.

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Here’s a hypothetical way a little more than $5 million of that pot money could go toward Salem-Keizer School District.

Every $1 million that's added to or subtracted from the State School Fund represents about $1.50 per weighted average daily membership for students, said Michael Wiltfong, School Finance and School Facilities Director with the Oregon Department of Education.

The weighting is, for instance, for special education students and English-language learners, Wiltfong said.

There are 53,295 "weights" for the 2017-2018 school year in the Salem-Keizer School District, he said.

Multiplying 63 – the number of millions – by 1.50 equals 94.5. Multiplying that by the number of weights – 53,295 – equals 5,036,377.50.

Or just more than $5 million in theory headed to Salem-Keizer, likely over two years.

Local officials don't appear to have quite put together wish lists of what, precisely, the money will pay for in terms of more police or teaching positions.

"It's too soon to know," Remy said.

Money for police, local government, addiction programs

The state could put $42 million toward Mental Health, Alcoholism and Drug Services, according to the forecast.

Oregon State Police could receive $31.5 million in funding. In Gov. Kate Brown's recommended budget, money from marijuana is supposed to be used to "protect further reductions to the Major Crimes Section."

Drug and alcohol abuse programs through the Oregon Health Authority would see about $10.5 million.

Cities and counties could get about $42 million combined to fund their law enforcement agencies.

Salem City Hall estimates $401,100 will flow in from marijuana tax revenue in the city's proposed budget for the 2017-2018 fiscal year.

It's a small portion of the overall budget for policing the capital city.

The Salem Police Department has a proposed budget of almost $43 million over the upcoming fiscal year.

In November, Salem voted through a 3-percent bump to the 17-percent state tax on recreational weed, meaning customers here pay a 20-percent tax those purchases.

The money would go to support their general police services, said city spokesman Kenny Larson. “It’s not earmarked for any special things."

How to figure marijuana taxes

The May forecast's marijuana outlook is an admittedly rough estimate based on data from Oregon’s young recreational marijuana industry and trends in Washington and Colorado, where those sales are also legal.

Economists based their outlook on another prediction: the tens of millions of dollars already collected by Oregon from recreational marijuana sales probably won’t be distributed by the end of this biennium – the two-year period that started in 2015 and finishes this June 30.

State lawmakers lean on revenue forecasts to see how much of a financial hole they need to fill over their two-year budget. They're working right now on the 2017-2019 budget. As of the May forecast, the hole lawmakers need to fill stretches $1.4 billion deep.

Before any money from the so-called Oregon Marijuana Fund goes back out across the state, Revenue and the Oregon Liquor Control Commission must pay for their administrative costs.

An interagency agreement requires OLCC to invoice Revenue no later than Sept. 30 for the 2015-2017 biennium, according to OLCC Financial Services Director Kim Davis.

OLCC, which regulates recreational marijuana sales, doesn't yet know exactly how much money it will need from Revenue. OLCC must reconcile its books at the end of the current biennium in June, said spokesman Mark Pettinger.

Marijuana licenses and fees have generated about $8 million, Pettinger said, after the commission took out $13 million to cover start-up costs for the recreational marijuana program.

So if the OLCC ends up generating $10 million in revenue from fees and licenses, it will only ask for $3 million from Revenue, Pettinger said.

Revenue spokeswoman Joy Krawczyk said: “As soon as we get the final receipts from OLCC, we can reimburse them, cover our administrative costs and then start distributing the rest.”

Send questions, comments or news tips to jbach@statesmanjournal.com or 503-399-6714. Follow him on Twitter @JonathanMBach.