The visit of an Israeli prime minister to Washington is normally cause for the city’s foreign-policy gaze to turn toward the Middle East, but this week it is not just the crisis in Ukraine that is overshadowing the arrival of Binyamin Netanyahu at the White House.



An already awkward relationship with President Barack Obama will be further complicated by a growing sense that the traditional unity of US-Israeli political lobbying in Congress has been fractured significantly by recent disagreements over Iran and Syria.

When Netanyahu speaks at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac), on Tuesday, he will be joined by an array of Washington powerbrokers – from John Kerry to John McCain – that one European ambassador in DC says other US allies can only dream of.

But the failure of Aipac to garner enough support in the Senate to oppose the Obama administration over its nuclear deal with Iran has led to a reassessment of the fabled ability of its lobbyists to wield a veto over US policy when it comes to matters of Israeli security.

And when Secretary of State Kerry speaks on Monday, he will be pressuring Israel not just to embrace US-led peace talks with Iran and Syria, but also with the Palestinians.

Michael Kassen, Aipac’s president, opened the conference on Sunday by acknowledging how much is at stake. “We gather at a critical moment for the US and Israel,” he said. “Serious decisions about Iran and the peace process will be made over the next few days,” he said.

Aipac supporters, such as the former US senator Joe Lieberman, were unapologetic about recent efforts to temper White House enthusiasm for dealing with Iran.

“I know some people will say that Congress getting involved in this will hurt the diplomacy, but in my opinion if Congress does not get involved the diplomacy has zero chance of succeeding,” Lieberman told the conference.

Yet others say the failure to reach the 70 Senate votes needed to override Obama on Iran points to an important break from the assumption that a single voice speaks for Israeli interests in the US.

“You now have majorities of both Democrat caucuses that are not going to be pushed around by the more hawkish elements of the Jewish community, and that’s a significant shift,” said Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of J-Street, a rival lobby organisation that claims to represent both pro-Israel Americans and those more in favour of an agreement with the Palestinians.

“A large core of Democrats , significant enough for [majority leader Harry] Reid in the Senate and [minority whip Steny] Hoyer in the House to take notice, are standing up and saying, ‘No, we are not going to go along with this just because there is outside pressure; it’s the wrong policy,’” he added, in an interview.

Despite such setbacks in Congress, Netanyahu is still expected to push the Iran nuclear programme as a top priority for discussion when he meets Obama at the White House on Monday.

“Iran remains our top concern,” said a senior Israeli government official. “We made no secret of the fact we didn’t like the interim agreement, but now we’re focused on the final deal. We want to see the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear military infrastructure.”

Netanyahu will argue that international sanctions against Iran must not be eased. “Leverage is the only way to get a good agreement, so the pressure must be kept up,” said the official.

Obama, on the other hand, is set to invest personal effort in the Palestinian peace process, pressing Netanyahu to accept a framework agreement drawn up by Kerry. Obama will meet the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, later this month as part of his renewed involvement.

Recent leaks to Arab media have suggested that the Kerry agreement could include a capital for the Palestinian state in Beit Hanina, a suburb of Jerusalem, rather than in the heart of the city; Israel’s retention on its side of the border of 10 settlement blocks; the strategically important Jordan valley remaining under Israeli control indefinitely; and an insistence on Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Such a package would be unacceptable to the Palestinians.

The Israeli official suggested the leaks were coming from the Palestinian side, in order to strengthen opposition to the peace process. “The Palestinians are putting out there all these ‘terrible’ proposals from Kerry. If only it was true! But it’s not,” he said.

Netanyahu, he added, was committed to working with Kerry to reach an agreement. “But it can’t be a one-way street. The Palestinians have to realise they won’t get everything they want, but neither will we.”

European governments have to get behind the Kerry drive, said the official. “It’s crucial they send the right messages to the Palestinians. But now the time is approaching, it’s possible that some Europeans might be undermining the process.”

Obama and Netanyahu are also expected to discuss other regional issues, including Syria and Egypt, at Monday’s meeting. However, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine may ensure that, for once, it is not the Middle East that takes top billing this week.

• This article was amended on 25 March 2014. The original said "But the failure of an Aipac-supported effort to pass legislation blocking Obama's nuclear deal with Iran". This has been corrected.

