Mark Pack and David Howarth recently wrote the second version of their “core vote” strategy, where they believe we should target those they deem to share our values, usually middle class metropolitan remainers. They believe that we need to tailor our message to these people so they vote for us during the good times and the bad. This report is linked here. Any reference to the report in this article is from this link.

While Mark Pack and David Howarth have the right idea with the plan to build a core vote, they seem to fall into the trap that only those groups that currently vote for us in any significant way share our values. They decide that 38% of the electorate can be defined as “open and tolerant”, based mainly on their answer to the question of how much immigration there should be as well as a range of other questions though these are noted to be less important. I would argue that this narrow way of looking at the question excludes many who would consider voting for the party if we merely appealed to them correctly.

I hesitate to use the term “legitimate concerns” around immigration, as usually they are not concerns based on immigration at all. They are usually concerns about housing, jobs, education and health and the provision of these as the population increases. The lack of provision is not the fault of migrants, it is the fault of a government failing to plan for the future of our vital public services.

However, this is not just a Conservative problem, even back under New Labour, the supposed party of the NHS, there were issues with providing more hospital beds for those areas that needed them. Many voters with concerns about immigration have merely had this scapegoat pressed onto the issue. If we decide to communicate properly with these people, we may find that actually they are more open and tolerant than we think.

The Core Vote document notes that two questions most strongly predict whether someone is very likely to vote for us. These are “Remain or Leave in the EU?” and “What is your level of education?” where answers of “Remain” and “High” mean they are much more likely to vote Lib Dem.

However, these questions almost automatically mean abandoning significant less well-off parts of the country, merely for concerns, legitimate or not, about the EU and for having less of an education than others. Are we deeming these people less able to have power of their lives?

If we articulate a strong and liberal vision that devolves power as close to the people as possible, giving them a strong voice in their own lives including in their jobs, through promoting employee ownership, in their healthcare, through boosting patient input and in their children’s education, by giving both parents and kids much more input into what is learnt, then we will pick up more support from areas we deem “no-go areas” as long as we have good candidates to present it.

* Oliver Craven is the Liberal Democrat candidate for Sleaford and North Hykeham.