Todd Spangler

Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON – In a new poll mirroring those done recently in Michigan and in other battleground states, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has staked an 11-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the state, suggesting he has much to do to overcome what has been a rocky stretch for his campaign as he heads into a key speech in Detroit on Monday.

The poll, done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing and released to the Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) on Friday, showed Clinton coming out of last week’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia with a 43%-32% lead over Trump in a four-way race including Libertarian Gary Johnson (8%) and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (3%). Fourteen percent of voters were undecided.

In a two-way match-up only listing Clinton and Trump, she led him by 46%-36% with 17% undecided. For the poll, EPIC-MRA, which does work for the Free Press, surveyed 600 likely voters between last Sunday and Thursday. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

While the poll did not prove a post-convention bounce for Clinton since EPIC-MRA had not polled on the presidential race since March, when she held a similar edge, it clearly indicated that the former secretary of state — who is expected to visit Michigan next Wednesday — holds a commanding lead following the convention in a state that hasn’t backed a Republican presidential nominee since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

“There’s clearly a healthy lead for Hillary and it’s showing the same pattern many other states are showing after the Trump campaign’s recent difficulties,” said EPIC-MRA’s pollster, Bernie Porn.

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Trump, who is set to deliver what his campaign calls a major economic speech to the Detroit Economic Club on Monday, has seen his poll numbers falter in several battleground states — including Michigan — in the wake of the Democratic convention and controversial remarks regarding an American Muslim family whose son was killed in combat for the U.S. in 2004 and Republican officials in Congress.

The poll tracks closely with a poll reported this week by the Detroit News and WDIV-TV, which showed Clinton leading Trump by 41%-32%. It also comes as post-convention polls in other battleground states — New Hampshire, Florida and Pennsylvania — show the real estate developer, casino mogul and reality TV star trailing Clinton and apparently picking up little support from backers of Clinton’s former rival, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, following his departure from the race.

Few political pundits give Trump much of a chance to win the presidency in November unless he can use his message as a political outsider who will tear up trade deals seen as bad by many across the industrial Midwest and the Rust Belt to pick up disaffected white voters in what have been traditionally Democratic states, Michigan among them. Still, with 95 days left until the election, he has time to do so, if he can quell widespread concerns raised by Democrats — and some Republicans — that his character and temperament make him unfit for the job.

Clinton’s support in the poll — which was spread across the state’s most populous regions as well as age groups — defied what were low favorable ratings, however. Compared to President Barack Obama’s 52% favorable rating, hers was substantially lower, at 41%, and an unfavorable rating by 51% of respondents.

But her numbers were still far better than Trump’s, who had a favorable rating from 30% of respondents and an unfavorable rating from 63%.

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Although the Clinton campaign and its allies haven’t targeted Michigan as strongly as some other states, they have been hammering away at Trump for offensive comments made about Mexicans and Muslims during the primary campaign, as well as chastising him for his language and behavior, including apparently making fun of a reporter with disabilities and referring to a woman’s menstrual cycle in response to a question by a TV host.

In recent days, Trump also criticized members of the family of a U.S. soldier killed in Iraq in 2004 after they appeared at the Democratic National Convention; criticized or otherwise refused to endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan as well as U.S. Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and asked a woman with a crying baby to leave a rally in Virginia.

Meanwhile, his campaign has been trying to pivot away from that coverage, noting far better campaign fund-raising in the month of July and arguing that the media is not adequately pursuing criticisms of Clinton and the Obama White House, including news this week that $400 million was repaid to Iran in January at the time four American hostages, including Amir Hekmati of Flint, were released.

Unsurprisingly, Michigan support for Clinton, who made history last week by becoming the first female to be nominated for president by a major U.S. party, was fueled by women. The survey indicated 48% of women in the state supported her, compared to 29% for Trump, a margin of 19 points. Fourteen percent were undecided. Among men, meanwhile, she had what was essentially a tie, leading Trump 37%-36%.

Trump’s problems in gaining backers in Michigan appeared to extend along racial and party lines as well: While Clinton’s substantial lead among black voters — 85%-2%, with 10% undecided — was expected, she also had a slight 38%-36% edge among whites, with 15% undecided. According to exit polls, Republican nominee Mitt Romney won whites in Michigan in 2012 by 11 points and still lost to Obama — by 9 points — because of widespread support from minority voters.

And while Clinton led Trump among Democrats in the survey 83%-4%, with 6% undecided, Trump’s lead with Republicans was shakier — 71% to 6% for Clinton, with 13% undecided. Self-described independents were split, 26% for Clinton to 24% for Trump, with a huge number — 31% — undecided.

Clinton was also essentially tied with Trump among voters with a high school degree or less — 40%-38% — a group which many expected Trump to win easily. Clinton had stronger leads among subgroups of people with college experience and degrees. Finally, she not only commanded a huge lead — 53%-27% — in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties taken as a group, she also has a surprising lead in west Michigan — 45%-33% — despite its being considered a Republican bastion.

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or at tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.