The Reserve Bank is expected to make only one more interest rate cut in the foreseeable future and economists say it is mostly likely to happen on Tuesday. But the futures market has priced in the chance of a cut at only 50%.

Twelve out of the 15 economists surveyed by AAP expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to a new record low of 2% at its May board meeting, after the bank made a similar reduction in February.

All but three of those surveyed say the interest rate won’t go any further below 2% for the foreseeable future.

After the RBA failed to cut the rate in April, the futures market was pricing in an almost 100% chance of an interest rate cut in May.

But that changed after the March unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, surprising markets, and sent pricing for a May cut plummeting to as low as 50% chance in recent days.

The National Australia Bank last week changed its interest rate prediction for May, because of the recent flow of better Australian economic data.

It is now expecting the next cut by the Reserve Bank to be in August.

Chief economist Alan Oster said record low interest rates and the falling Australian dollar have helped the non-mining sectors of the economy improve in the past year.

“This is evidence that prior rates cuts are continuing to gain some traction,” he said.

Oster expects economic growth to improve to an average annual rate of 3% in the year ahead and has revised his forecast for unemployment to peak at 6.4%, from 6.7%.

“Our forecast remains for a rising unemployment rate, albeit to a lower peak, which makes it likely they will still need to cut again,” he said.

JP Morgan Australia chief economist Stephen Walters expects the RBA to cut on Tuesday but says it will be a close call.

“Most of us agree the case for easier policy is persuasive; all we really are bickering over is the timing,” he said.

“The latest domestic data does show tentative signs of improvement, but it is early days.”

UBS economists Scott Haslem and George Tharenou expect one more rate cut, saying the RBA is reluctant to cut because the already record low interest rate is working its way through the economy.