WITH the faded grandeur of the Blackpool Tower jutting from the horizon down the street, Norman Hughes, a retired fireman, considers his options. He normally votes for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), but doing so this time would only “take a vote from the Tories, which might mess up Brexit.” Instead, he says he will support Theresa May, although he is suspicious that she may soften the government’s approach to negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union. But better to risk a softer Brexit than to vote for UKIP, which might let in Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. That would be “disastrous”.

In 2013 when David Cameron, then prime minister, promised a referendum on whether to leave the EU, he did so partly to stem the flow of Tory supporters to UKIP. Although the plebiscite did not turn out as Mr Cameron hoped, his defeat may have succeeded in disarming the threat posed to his party by the populist right, at least for now. In 2013 nearly a fifth of voters said they would back UKIP. Today the party’s support is in single figures, and falling.

Few senior Kippers have much hope that it can be turned around quickly. For proof, look to the recent decisions taken by the party’s high-flyers. On March 25th Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s sole MP, left the party; on April 20th Nigel Farage, the party’s former leader, said he would not stand; as The Economist went to press Paul Nuttall, the current leader, had yet to finish dithering about whether to contest a seat. Local organisers are flocking to the Tories and funding is scarce. Even when on the up, UKIP struggled to concentrate its resources in particular seats, as required by Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system.

Which competitor will benefit from UKIP’s slump? Although the party’s voters are a mixed bag, says Richard Hayton of the University of Leeds, the biggest group is former Tories who were motivated to switch parties by antipathy to Europe. Now that Mrs May seeks to take Britain out of the EU, many will return to the Conservatives. UKIP has no seats to lose, but its collapse could have a big impact on the other parties’ fortunes.

Take Blackpool South. In 2015 Labour won the seat with 42% of the vote, eight points ahead of the Tories. UKIP picked up 17%. This year Peter Anthony, the Conservative candidate and a part-time hotel-lounge crooner, thinks he is in with a chance. That is partly because of the weakness of Labour. (“I wouldn’t vote for Labour with Jeremy Corbyn,” says Peter Harvey, a pensioner having a mid-morning smoke outside the George pub and hotel. “I just don’t like the bloke.”) But the Tories’ confidence also reflects the faltering appeal of UKIP.