"The lack of consensus in the numbers this time, plus vast differences in regional numbers, do point to extra volatility and uncertainty this year. Only time will tell what impact all these factors will have, but for now the outcome is unpredictable."

Our recent polling shows a virtual tie in national voting intentions with less than two months until Canadians head to the polls for the next federal election.

We’ve seen some polls show significant leads for the Conservatives and Liberals in recent weeks, but the average results and most polls show that it’s an extremely close race. This virtual tie in popular vote points to a slight Liberal advantage in seat count, but a two point swing could change that drastically. Uncertainty is the only certainty as we enter this election period.

Beyond the toplines, a few recent insights point to why my job and the job of all pollsters and analysts will be a difficult one in the weeks ahead.

First, there are the vote considerations most Canadians make combined with top issues and policies. We know that a majority of Canadian voters say they vote primarily for a party’s policies and platform (60.2 per cent) followed by party leader (18.6) and lastly the local candidate (12). We know from our past work that the environment has now surpassed the economy as the top issue in this election, but the economy is still a close second.

It’s not too surprising then that Liberal and Green fortunes are up on the environmental policies, but why has the NDP not benefited from this trend?

Conservatives have been consistently a close second or slightly leading in most polls, but less than two in 10 Canadians tell us they don’t believe climate change is real and man made, so that cannot be the only base of support. Economic anxieties around carbon taxes and the cost of living are driving the rest of the vote, and, despite a strong economy on most measures, we know Canadians are less optimistic about the economy than they were a year ago. Again, the NDP has also addressed the high cost of living and housing affordability issues in their platform, but this isn’t increasing their support.

For those voting on party leader primarily, we see Trudeau well ahead but less so than he was a year ago. His brand has no doubt taken a hit from prolonged negative headlines, mostly about the SNC-Lavalin affair.

Scheer has less appeal among those voters, but far better than where he was a year ago, so a strong campaign, including a great debate performance, might be enough to change that trend.

Singh and May are on opposite trend lines in this category: May is ahead of Singh, and increasing, while Singh is fading. This might point to why NDP policies aren’t having the same effect. While over 60 per cent told us policies and platform was their most important factor, we know it’s not the only factor in determining their vote.

READ MORE: Liberals, Tories neck-and-neck in latest Mainstreet poll

When it comes to local candidate voters, we see why it’s very difficult for independent candidates to break through; only 12 per cent of voters consider this the main factor in their vote. Among these voters, the Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc and even the People’s Party do well, Greens less so, and the NDP is virtually undetectable.

Star candidates do matter, and on that front larger parties do better. The NDP, though, is having recruitment difficulties and that factor may be depressing support among these candidate voters.

Those factors alone make for a complicated equation on forecasting outcomes, but other factors play an even larger role in that volatility.

Behavioural science tells us that humans make decisions very quickly, and rarely do choices made involve the rational part of the human brain. With that in mind, I have to assume that all Canadians know right now how they will vote, but more important in determining the outcome is the other important decision Canadians face: Will they vote? Again, our most recent data shows that over a quarter of people who tell us they will vote say they’d back a “none of the above” option if they could. The apathetic vote can be mobilized and what happens during the campaign will be used by Canadians to rationalize those decisions, whether to vote, and for whom.

Beyond motivating their base and organizational capacity that drive voter turnout, there is the distinct possibility of strategic voting. Almost two thirds of Canadians (62 per cent) told us recently that they would consider voting strategically to stop the party they disagree with most. That may be part of what is driving NDP declines and resurging Liberal fortunes, but the Greens and People’s Party continue to show pockets of strength that may be the x-factor in determining the outcome on Oct. 21.

All of these factors are not unique to this coming election; these are factors in every single election to some extent, yet polls almost always get it right, with a few notable exceptions. The lack of consensus in the numbers this time, plus vast differences in regional numbers, do point to extra volatility and uncertainty this year. Only time will tell what impact all these factors will have, but for now the outcome is unpredictable.

READ MORE: Mainstreet poll suggests most Canadians think election will lead to minority government

Quito Maggi is the president and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

His future columns about the upcoming race will be exclusively available to subscribers of iPolitics’ Election2019 premium package, which will also include early access to the latest Mainstreet Research polls, as well as substantive political analysis and specialized campaign reporting.

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