As we approach the 2016 edition of the Holy War, each fan base is convinced its team will win, but what do the numbers say?

Utah has had the advantage in recent years, winning the previous five contests. Previous to that, BYU had a moment of superiority when they won three out of four. By digging into the stats of past Utah-BYU games, we know what each team needs to focus on if they want to emerge victorious.

So, what’s the key to victory in the Holy War? Is it moving the ball more than your opponent? Nope. In Utah’s three most recent wins, BYU out-gained the Utes as much as a 386-197 advantage in last year’s Las Vegas Bowl. And in two out of BYU’s last three victories, Utah racked up more yards than the Cougars. In the last 10 years, the team that has more yards on offense is only 4-6.

The more important statistics by far are efficiency and ball security.

The respective quarterbacks of Utah and BYU best exemplify the importance of efficiency. If asked, many Utah fans would admit that over the years, BYU has had the advantage when it comes to quarterbacks; tall guys who can sit in the pocket and fire bombs down the field. However, when you compile the stat-lines of the Utah and BYU quarterbacks, it’s Travis Wilson, Jordan Wynn and Brian Johnson who come out ahead.

Average Utah QB statline from 2004-2015 Holy War games: 18.6/30.8 (60 percent), 217 yards, 1.7 TDs, .63 INTs

Average BYU QB statline from 2004-2015 Holy War games: 21/42 (50 percent), 256 yards, 1.27 TDs, 1.18 INTs

BYU quarterbacks have thrown for more yards, but we’ve already established that yards aren’t a good indicator of success in the Holy War. BYU quarterbacks throw about 11 more passes per game, and only complete 50 percent of their passes. That adds up to BYU quarterbacks averaging 6.09 yards per attempt, compared to Utah quarterbacks’ 7.04 yards.

It’s no coincidence that the last time BYU won, these trends were reversed. In that game, Max Hall had fewer attempts and fewer yards than Wynn. And most importantly, Hall threw two touchdowns and zero interceptions to Wynn’s zero touchdowns and one interception.

The ideal quarterback in the Holy War is a quiet, but efficient game manager who takes care of the ball at all costs.

In the last 11 matchups, Utah has won the turnover battle seven times. In those seven games, Utah is undefeated. Three times Utah and BYU had the same amount of turnovers, Utah went 1-2 in those games. In only one game of its last 11 has BYU won the turnover battle (1-0 in 2009), and that just so happens to be the last time BYU beat Utah.

If BYU wants to beat Utah, it needs to win the turnover margin, but how likely is that to happen?

BYU is coming up against a defense that forced 34 turnovers, including 22 interceptions which ranked fourth best in the nation last year, and that backfield remained mostly intact. Considering that such a backfield was able to stifle the No. 1 2016 NFL Draft pick (Utah had six interceptions against Jared Goff last year) BYU will need an elite passing performance to avoid those costly turnovers — Enter Taysom Hill.

Hill is as athletic of a quarterback as BYU (or Utah) has ever had, but as a passer he perfectly fits the mold of the kind of quarterback you don’t want leading your squad in the Holy War: inefficient and prone to turnovers.

In 10 games against Power Five conference teams, Hill has had three games with a completion rate of less than 40 percent and seven games with a completion rate of less than 60 percent. He has also had as many touchdowns as he had interceptions. In his only game against Utah, he completed only 18-of-48 passes — that year Utah ranked dead last in the nation with a pitiful three interceptions on the year. So if that defense held Taysom Hill to a 37 percent completion rate, than this Utah defense is sure to pose a tremendous challenge for him.

Considering those numbers, Hill’s greatest threat to Utah will be his legs, so expect Utah to stack the box and dare him to throw the football.

BYU would be better off with Tanner Mangum who, in four games against P5 teams last year, completed 56 percent of his passes (better, but still not great), and he was able to throw three touchdowns and just one interception.

Whoever suits up as quarterback for BYU will probably benefit from the influence of new head coach and former Utah defensive coordinator, Kalani Sitake. Looking at BYU’s box score against Arizona last week shows Sitake could be changing BYU’s philosophy and game plan to closely resemble Utah’s. He limited Hill to only 29 pass attempts, while its running backs carried the ball a total of 36 times. The result? Hill completed 72 percent of his passes, threw one touchdown, and he avoided turning the ball over. That level of offensive balance, efficiency and ball security is the key to success for BYU.

So what about the Utah offense’s ball security?

It’s hard to know how well Troy Williams will protect the football. At Santa Monica College, Williams threw 31 touchdowns and only four interceptions. While those are good numbers, who knows if that will translate from the junior college level to the Division I level.

The real question mark for the Utah offense is at running back. Since Utah lost Devontae Booker to injury near the end of last year, Joe Williams has carried the load. Through four games he has fumbled it three times, or one fumble for every 33 touches. That could be a ticking time bomb if Williams puts the ball on the ground deep in Utah territory at the end of a tight game.

Utah could go with Troy McCormick, who had a nice game last week, but he hasn’t proven his ability to hold onto the ball either. He didn’t play last year due to injury, but the year before that, he had one fumble on only 32 touches.

With all that said, this is the Holy War and anything can happen. However, if the recent trends of the rivalry continue, then the Utes will limit their mistakes, and they will come out on top.

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