Would it be too hyperbolic to suggest that the underlying stats are all one needs to guarantee a strong FPL season? If you’d posed this hypothesis to me prior to the immaculate conception of these articles, I would’ve likely waved it away like a bottom-six side’s penalty claim.

But as we reach the final few gameweeks of the season, I’m starting to believe that underlying stats might be the all-encompassing master key to fantasy success.

Take last week’s article as a prime example. I (this is not a brag, by the way – I am merely the humble mouthpiece for the numbers) wrote about Burnley’s resolute defence, Shane Long’s form, Bournemouth assets on the cusp of big returns and Everton’s impressive xGA. All of which bore fruition in Gameweek 36.

Though there will always be plenty of anomalous events in football (isn’t that why we love it?), I am quickly moulding to the opinion that underlying stats, whilst not infallible, are by far the most important metric for FPL managers to take note of. Let’s see if that proves to be the case ahead of Gameweek 37.

Vardy’s party becomes an all-nighter

If you ever find yourself on the A594 – or the ring road, as Leicester locals might call it – don’t be surprised to hear a deep, pulsing bass reverberating across the rooftops of the City’s populous centre. Contrary to popular opinion, what you’re hearing isn’t the collective groan of having to live in Leicester; nor is it the disturbed spirit of Richard III’s ghost haunting the ancient Cathedral.

Instead, it’s Jamie Vardy’s sound system. The party is well and truly underway once more.

The Leicester man embodies the holy-grail mix of impervious goalscoring form and incredible underlying stats to reinforce it. At 1.03, his xG/90 is even more mouthwatering than the table adorned with Iceland’s full range of buffet snacks that he lays on for party guests. Yes, he ends the season with a difficult pair of fixtures, but this is his party, and as he’s proved so many times before, anyone – even Man City and Chelsea – is invited.

Are you Shaw you want to ignore him?

The Sherlocks among you may have already guessed that this section will be about a Man United player. Specifically, their once-prodigal, once-tubby, now-sort-of-alright left-back Luke Shaw.

Ordinarily, in the form Man United have been in of late, I would be steering well clear of Solskjaer’s men. But the underlying stats don’t lie, and the underlying stats give Luke Shaw the highest recent xA of defenders in the Premier League. That would be noteworthy enough, but it gets better for the Englishman.

In Huddersfield, Shaw is tasked with keeping out the lowest scoring home side in the season – both in xG and actual-G – a feat that surely even the buttery palms of David De Gea can manage. For clean sheet and serious assist potential, Shaw poses a fantastic budget option for managers looking to rid themselves of Double Gameweek fodder (yes, I’m referring to Brighton defenders).

Redmond to do Pep proud

It’s not just Shane Long who’s flying the flag for Hassenhutl’s rejuvenated Southampton side. Do you remember when Pep Guardiola got Nathan Redmond in a headlock and started shouting in his ear? Whilst it may have looked like a kidnapping at the time, we later found out it was, in fact, impassioned sentiments about the Southampton forward’s potential.

Whilst I’m no lip-reading expert, I do have lips myself, so I can pretty confidently surmise that Pep had seen Redmond’s impressive underlying stats and felt obliged to let him know that he was underperforming.

With two plum fixtures on the horizon – including a home fixture against Huddersfield on the final day of the season – Nathan Redmond is due a haul. He looks good, his fixtures are good and, ahead of Gameweek 37, his underlying stats are up there with the best of them.

Team Expected Goals (Last 6 Gameweeks)

Man City aren’t the best at something

It’s finally happened. Man City have been dethroned at last. Yes, their average home xG is a whole 1.22 above the next best home side in Gameweek 37 (Wolves, incidentally, but more on them later), but look at that home xGA. It’s positively embarrassing. In fact, they’re only 0.37xGA away from a whole goal. Chelsea edge them out with 0.55xGA – impressive, given how reluctant Chelsea have been to win a game recently.

In fact, if we’re going on the underlying stats and underlying stats alone (and if this article has taught us anything, it’s that we definitely should) then it’s Chelsea’s backline that deserves our investment. Not only do they have a better home xGA than the champions, but they also host a team with far less xG on the road too. Take off that wig, Aymeric; you’re not David Luiz and you never will be.

Every week is a free hit on FantasyBet. Pick your GW37 FPL team now! Build Team

Wolves claw their way into contention

Shout “triple Wolves” in a public area and you will probably cause mass panic. Why are there wolves in suburban Norwich? Where did they escape from? And yet, as Wolves approach a home fixture against already-relegated Fulham, I’ve found the words forcing themselves out of my mouth like a tickly cough during an exam.

It looks like a good fixture on paper, but it’s an even better fixture when one scratches beneath the surface. Not only do Wolves have the 3rd best average xGA of the home teams playing in Gameweek 37 (0.73), they also have the second-best home average xG too (2.13).

Buoyed by a recent 3-1 dismantling of Arsenal, I fully expect Wolves to disrupt Fulham’s recent form in punishing fashion. It’s time to add some wolves to your pack.

Arsenal triple captain?

Like a late-night reveller who wakes up the morning after to find the creamy-brown foam of a takeaway punnett sitting atop their bedside table, some managers still have their chips intact. For the majority of these patient bosses, it’s the Triple Captain that remains unbroken; a wax seal that keeps the morsel of hope left this season free from besmirchment.

The question now is when – and on whom – to use it? The answer, it appears, may well be Arsenal. The team that have lost their last three Premier League games? Yes, the very same. Despite their poor recent form, Arsenal’s recent home underlying stats are respectable. But it’s their opponents that make Arsenal’s triple captaincy candidacy so compelling.

Brighton have the worst xG and the worst xGA of any of Gameweek 37’s away teams. They are simultaneously incapable of scoring goals and incapable of keeping them out: a rare feat, if ever there was one. All the stats point to Arsenal bouncing back: Brighton give them the ideal opportunity.

MORE GAMEWEEK 37 FPL TIPS:

Gameweek 37: Clean Sheet Odds and Anytime Goalscorers

Gameweek 37: Who To Pick

Gameweek 37 Fantasy Weekly Podcast