I was interested to see what the effect would be on the projected end-of-season points-totals of the top teams if they had to play everyone in the NHL equally often (never mind that 29 opponents can not divide 82 games equally). In this analysis I will compare Vancouver to Detroit and Philadelphia, being the top opponents in each of the two conferences.

I will adjust for the so-called "North-west" effect, as well as conference bias for Detroit, but will adjust for conference bias only in the case of Philadelphia. The reason for this is that Philadelphia’s average number of games versus the North-west is not significantly different from their average number of games versus the western conference as a whole. Thus the "North-west" effect will be inconsequential in their case. This is fortunate because they have only played four games against the North-west: an embarrassingly small sample size from which to attempt to project a pattern.



The current points totals (at the time of writing) projected to the end of the season for each team are as follows:



Vancouver – 85 points in 60 games, which project to 116.2 points in 82 games

Detroit – 80 points in 59 games, which project to 111.2 points in 82 games

Philadelphia – 83 points in 59 games, which project to 115.4 points in 82 games



Let us now remove biases. First from Vancouver:



4 North-west opponents – 28 points in 17 games average to 1.65 points per game

10 other Western opponents – 35 points in 28 games average to 1.25 points per game

15 Eastern opponents – 22 points in 15 games average to 1.47 points per game



The weighted average points per game (supposing that we play an equal number of games against each opponent from the three categories) is



( 4 (1.65) + 10 (1.25) + 15 (1.47) ) /( 4 + 10 + 15) = 1.42 points per game



Projected over the 82 games this is 116.2 points, unchanged from their current pace. The points that the Canucks lose by playing fewer games against their North-west rivals is offset by the points they gain by playing more Eastern opponents.



Second, let us look at Detroit:



5 North-west opponents – 28 points in 17 games average to 1.65 points per game

9 other Western opponents – 33 points in 29 games average to 1.14 points per game

15 Eastern opponents – 19 points in 13 games average to 1.46 points per game



The weighted average points per game is



( 5 (1.65) + 9 (1.14) + 15 (1.46) )/( 5 + 9 + 15 ) = 1.39 points per game



Projected over the 82 games this is 114.2 points, an increase of 3 points that is due primarily to playing more games against Eastern opponents. It is worth pointing-out that 3 points is a very small effect and that the Canucks have at least as good a record as Detroit in the three categories (North-west, other Western, and Eastern opponents).



Finally (and most dramatically), let us consider Philadelphia:



15 Western opponents – 17 points in 15 games average to 1.13 points per game

14 Eastern opponents – 66 points in 44 games average to 1.50 points per game



The weighted average points per game is



( 15 (1.13) + 14(1.50) )/( 15 + 14 ) = 1.31 points per game



Projected over the 82 games this is 107.4 points, a loss of 8 points due to having to play Western opponents many more times.



There are a couple of conclusions that can be drawn from the preceding discussion.



First we note that Detroit and Vancouver have almost identical records (as indicated by their points per game) against the three categories that were under consideration: North-west opponents, other Western opponents, and Eastern opponents. The end-of-season effect-size of playing more Eastern opponents was a gain of 3 points in 82 games for Detroit, so it is not a leap to assume that this effect has the same magnitude for Vancouver. Because the Canucks stood-pat at 116.2 points under the two scenarios, we can assume that the positive effect of playing more North-west opponents than Detroit is 3 points over the course of 82 games. This may be the difference between finishing first and second in the conference, but it is hardly the huge effect that everyone seems to think.



Second, and in contrast, the benefit that Philadelphia receives for playing in the Eastern conference is dramatic. The end-of-season effect of playing in the Eastern conference (as opposed to an even schedule) is 8 points. Thus if the Flyers were to swap conferences the total effect could be a swing of as much as 16 points; and while they would still be playoff-bound, they would rather be fighting to secure home-ice advantage for the first round than duking it out with Vancouver and Detroit for the President’s Trophy. On the other hand, were the Canucks or Wings to swap conferences, the race for the President’s trophy would be all but over already.