The House vote to replace Obamacare has buoyed Democrats’ hopes of taking out Orange County’s four Republican Congress members, triggering a fresh wave of Democratic fundraising and rallies — and prompting a major political odds maker to revise its tote board.

The effect the vote will have on the 2018 elections is hotly debated, but it has delivered immediate fuel to the momentum of the anti-Donald Trump movement much as Obamacare helped motivate the Tea Party leading up to the 2010 midterm races. Republicans far outpaced projections in that election to take over the House, with some experts calling opposition to Obamacare key to GOP performance.

“It could turn out that people don’t care about it so much once the election comes around, but it has all the hallmarks of being a significant issue,” said Eric McGhee, a political scientist with the Public Policy Institute of California. “In 2010, Obamacare made Republicans and independents reconsider the ideology of their Democratic representatives and maybe decide they weren’t as moderate as they thought. In Republican districts that voted for Hillary Clinton last year, they may do something similar in reconsidering their view of the incumbents.”

Nationwide, there are 14 Republican House districts that voted for Clinton and have Congress members who voted Thursday for the American Health Care Act. Four of those districts are in Orange County and have already been targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, making the county ground zero for Democratic efforts to gain ground in the House.

But Democrats nationally upped the ante after Thursday’s vote. The DCCC immediately announced a six-figure internet and radio ad campaign targeting vulnerable Republicans who voted for the AHCA, including the four in Orange County — Reps. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton; Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa; Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Beach and Darrell Issa, R-Vista. On Monday, a group called Save My Care announced internet ads targeting Walters and Issa.

Other Southern Californians supporting the measure include Rep. Steve Knight, R-Palmdale, whose district voted for Clinton, and Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, whose district favored Trump.

ActBlue, Swing Left and Daily Kos announced Friday morning that they’d raised $2 million in the hours following the vote — money earmarked for Democratic challengers. Several Democratic challengers in the county used the vote as the theme of fundraising emails. Walters’ challenger Katie Porter’s email included a photo of the incumbent shaking hands with Trump at the White House following the vote.

Indivisible activists in Walters’ district had already planned a Tuesday, May 9, town hall with healthcare as a key topic while Indivisible activists in Royce’s and Rohrabacher’s districts responded to the vote with plans for a “die-ins” this week to symbolize what they consider fatal shortcomings of the AHCA.

The Cook Political Report changed its outlook for 20 House seats because of the vote. That included changing the rating for Walters’, Rohrabacher’s and Royce’s districts from a “likely Republican” outcome in 2018 to “leans Republican.” Knight’s district shifted from “leans Republican” to “toss up,” Issa’s remains “toss up” and Calvert’s remains “safe.”

Effect called ‘overblown’

Dave Gilliard, a political consultant for the campaigns of Walters, Rohrabacher and Royce, said he wasn’t worried about the impact of the vote. He pointed out that the Senate is expected to make wholesale changes before any final version is produced.

“I think the effect of last week’s vote is overblown,” said Gilliard, who’s also represented Rohrabacher in the past. “I don’t think the vote will cost them the election. I don’t think the voters who will decide the election — those in the middle — are going to make up their minds based on this vote.”

Gilliard pointed out that activists have misrepresented what’s in the House version. That’s consistent with a New York Times analysis finding some opponents claims “exaggerated … nightmarish and sometimes overstated.”

Perhaps the most common exaggeration is the list of preexisting conditions that would not be protected by the AHCA. The measure would not exempt coverage of those with preexisting conditions, but would allow states to seek waivers that would allow insurance companies to charge higher fees to some.

“People could be charged based on their health status only if they bought coverage through the individual market and had experienced a gap in coverage,” according to the New York Times.

That means costs could rise for those people. The measure could also cause higher rates for older individuals — a population particularly likely to vote. AARP is among those opposed to the AHCA.

States could also seek exemptions that insurers cover 10 “essential health benefits,” including maternity, mental health and prescription drugs.

On the other hand, it would eliminate the 0.9 percent tax on those earning more than $200,000. That income level is more common in Orange County — especially Walters’ south county district — than in most places in the country, so the tax break is likely to be welcomed relief to many voters.

‘Intense pressure’

The party that controls the White House typically loses congressional seats in the midterm following their presidential nominee’s election. In 2010, two years after Barack Obama’s election, Democrats were expected to lose about 40 seats. Instead, they lost 63 seats and control of the House — a phenomenon attributed by some to their support of Obama’s Affordable Care Act.

“You can explain the extra loss by the ACA,” said McGhee, co-author of an analysis of the impact of that vote on the House elections.

The final vote on Obamacare was seven months before the election. This time, it’s still 17 months before the election — and the measure passed by the House is expected to changed significantly if and when it’s finally approved.

That could put distance between the election and vulnerable House members’ vote last week. But the process also could drag out long enough to keep the issue fresh in November 2018. The still-pending report from the Congressional Budget Office is likely to clarify the positive and negative consequences of the proposal, and could further polarize voters.

It’s also unknown what issues could overtake healthcare in importance to the electorate. The economy, immigration and national security are all matters that could gain more attention. Even so, McGhee said the healthcare vote isn’t going to make things easier for vulnerable Republicans.

“These are going to be difficult elections, no matter what,” he said. “This adds an extra element of risk.”

Consultant Gilliard said his candidates have campaigned on repealing Obamacare and their Thursday votes reflected their principles. Walters had been supportive of the various versions of the replacement plan this year, while Royce, Issa and Rohrabacher had publicly remained undecided until the roll call vote was tallied.

Conservative blogger Jon Fleischman wrote that vulnerable Republicans want to stay on the good side of GOP leadership in Washington because they’ll need the help of party mates come election time. Issa, in fact, received a boost from two Florida lawmakers, who held a $1,000 per person fundraiser for him in Sarasota on Sunday.

Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College and a former GOP staffer on Capitol Hill, said the three likely made their decisions while under “intense pressure” from Republican leaders. Orange-based campaign consultant Jimmy Camp, who mostly works for GOP causes, singled out House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, who is well known by all four Orange County Republicans.

“Kevin McCarthy is pretty good at what he does,” Camp said, noting the 217-213 vote necessitated Republicans squeezing out every “yes” vote possible. “I don’t know what was said behind closed doors, but I’m sure there was a lot of pressure.”