There has been a lot of unrest by the fans towards Zack Wheeler so far here in 2014. Wheeler had the misfortune of being the Mets’ top prospect to follow directly after Matt Harvey and inevitably his production gets compared to Harvey’s and comes up short. Of course, even in a vacuum, Wheeler’s 4.31 ERA does not wow anyone. But the question remains: What should we expect from Wheeler this year?

Last year, Wheeler was ranked by Baseball America as the #11 prospect. A season ago, Wheeler’s baseball age was 23. BA lists its top 100 prospects going back to 1990. So I went back and looked at all pitchers ranked in the top 20 from 1990-2012, eliminated the international free agents like Jose Contreras who were MLB-ready when they came to this country and looked for guys who were at least 21 in the year that BA ranked them.

Then I compiled what – if anything – they did in the majors the following season. The hope was that this would comprise a group of Wheeler’s peers – similarly-aged, high-ranking prospects – and see what they did the first year after they got that top 20 ranking. For people who made the top 20 multiple times, I took the year they were closest to Wheeler in age, with the exception of Paul Wilson. I took an earlier year with Wilson so that we could get a full season in the majors pitched the following year, rather than a DNP.

Here are our results:

So, in 1990, BA ranked 22-year-old McDonald the #2 prospect in baseball and in 1993 he delivered a 4.85 ERA in the majors. In all 18 of our 90 players did not even pitch in the majors the following year and Tankersley certainly wishes that he didn’t. Our sample, which is filled with All-Stars, delivered a 3.97 ERA and a 3.51 BB/9 as a group.

My suggestion is that this is the baseline we should be comparing Wheeler to, not what Harvey delivered in 2013. But we can certainly chop the data even further, to see if we can get a better comparison group. Since Wheeler was 23 the year he was ranked in the top 20 by BA, let’s focus on just the pitchers who were the same age. Here’s that group:

IP ER H BB Year ERA WHIP BB/9 Age BA Slot Mike Harkey 18.7 11 21 6 1990 5.29 1.444 2.89 23 14 Mike Stanton 78 25 62 21 1990 2.88 1.064 2.42 23 18 Pat Combs 64.3 35 64 43 1990 4.90 1.664 6.02 23 20 Alan Benes 191 104 192 87 1995 4.90 1.461 4.10 23 14 Billy Wagner 51.7 14 28 30 1995 2.44 1.122 5.22 23 17 Jason Schmidt 187.7 96 193 76 1996 4.60 1.433 3.64 23 11 Bartolo Colon 94 59 107 45 1996 5.65 1.617 4.31 23 15 Kris Benson 196.7 89 184 83 1998 4.07 1.357 3.80 23 7 Matt Clement 180.7 90 190 86 1998 4.48 1.527 4.28 23 16 Kip Wells 133.3 71 145 61 2000 4.79 1.545 4.12 23 14 A.J. Burnett 173.3 78 145 83 2000 4.05 1.316 4.31 23 20 Roy Oswalt 233 78 215 62 2001 3.01 1.189 2.39 23 13 Juan Cruz 61 41 66 28 2002 6.05 1.541 4.13 23 6 Dennis Tankersley 0 7 3 4 2002 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23 16 Justin Verlander 201.7 82 181 67 2006 3.66 1.230 2.99 23 8 Tim Lincecum 227 66 182 84 2007 2.62 1.172 3.33 23 11 Mike Pelfrey 200.7 83 209 64 2007 3.72 1.360 2.87 23 20 Clay Buchholz 92 43 91 36 2008 4.21 1.380 3.52 23 4 David Price 208.7 63 170 79 2009 2.72 1.193 3.41 23 2 Brian Matusz 49.7 59 81 24 2010 10.68 2.113 4.35 23 5 Matt Moore 150.3 55 119 76 2012 3.29 1.297 4.55 23 2 2793.5 1249 2648 1145 4.02 1.358 3.69

While our sample is significantly reduced, the numbers are still very similar. Both the ERA and BB/9 numbers are slightly higher but nothing that would make our heads turn. And the list is still packed with big-name pitchers and guys who had lengthy, successful careers in the majors.

Clement may not resonate with younger fans but he’s a guy who pitched nine years in the majors and made the All-Star team. Schmidt pitched 14 years in the majors and made three All-Star teams. And that Colon guy has thrown 2,641 innings in the majors, won a Cy Young and is still going. Of course the second list also includes other Cy Young Award winners Lincecum, Price and Verlander.

Some may point out that Wheeler is significantly behind what some of the stars on this list accomplished. That’s a valid point. But his numbers are certainly in line with what Benson, Burnett, Buchholz, Clement, Colon and Schmidt did at the same age. Some guys come up and star right away and others take a while longer.

Schmidt seems like a potentially decent comp. Many people were frustrated when in his age 24 season he put up a 4.60 ERA, a 1.433 WHIP and a 3.64 BB/9 season. When he was 30, he led the league in ERA and WHIP. While that’s a best-case scenario, it just goes to show what a guy in this class can do.

Wheeler has already separated himself from the bottom tier in the initial group, the Hills, Drews and Taylors who never even made the majors. He’s likely better than the guys like Alvarez, Pennington and Watson, who had brief MLB careers. Right now, barring injury, his floor seems to be a guy who has a lengthy, if unimpressive career, like Benes or Benson.

Certainly Mets fans expected Wheeler to be better than Benson. Still, the fact that at this point in time, Benson appears like a reasonable floor should be no reason to view Wheeler as some type of colossal disappointment.

Perhaps we can eliminate “ace” from our hopes for Wheeler. While he’s unlikely to be the next Verlander, anyone who would be disappointed if he turned into Burnett or Colon or Schmidt had unrealistic expectations.

So, when watching Wheeler pitch the rest of this year, look to see if he can go deeper into games while making small improvements with his walk rate. If he ends the year near the age 23 group’s 4.02 ERA and 3.69 BB/9 – consider that a good thing and not a reason to complain.

Share this: Email

Facebook

Print

Reddit

Twitter

More

Pinterest

LinkedIn



Tumblr

