A decade-long period of a steadily rising oil prices (and that of other raw materials) has given Russia a feeling of strength, bordering on invulnerability, which has made the country more assertive, and ready to use any opportunity to deploy its military power. Based on his analysis of Russian behaviour over the past 50 years, Daniel Gros finds that the abrupt reversal of this trend since the summer of 2014 portends a much less aggressive Russian stance as long as the price of oil remains at present levels.

Daniel Gros is Director of CEPS. This commentary was previously published by Project Syndicate, 14 January 2015, and syndicated to newspapers and journals worldwide and is republished here with the kind permission of Project Syndicate.