Sharing a coffee with my Mentor some weeks ago he asked me what is the unemployment rate. Ironically I responded with an almost vague statement saying it’s about 6.5% but in reality due to how it’s counted its probably much higher...Nick responded by saying its 100% when you’re unemployed...I escalated my job search intensity.

In the following week I had managed to secure a screening interview via an agency for an important role in an organisation on my target list. On my way I crossed paths with a homeless man who appeared to be about my age. He asked if I could spare a dollar. As I passed him the only gold coin in my pocket I realised he and I were on the same side of the ledger of life. We both have no income and a finite sum of money, only mine is larger!

These events made me think really hard about the future, but significantly more about what it would be like if unemployment augured up to nearly 100%. What would cause this? What would the transition be like? What can we do about it?

Now if you think these thoughts are the alarmist ones rummaging around in the mind of a man currently seeking employment, then think again. The G20 about to held in Brisbane was last week ‘preluded’ by the B20 a gathering of leading businesses in a think tank about the future. At this summit Seek’s CEO Andrew Bassett said “said jobs would undoubtedly be lost in Australia amid a shift to what big business now calls 'automation'”. (http://www.skynews.com.au/news/tech/2014/07/18/jobs-will-be-lost-to-robots--says-seek-boss.html#sthash.PthGSwK1.yR8tULEK.dpuf ). I guess if you are in the business of being a portal for job vacancy notices you will be deeply concerned about declining employ in the human form!

I was introduced to the notion of alarmingly high unemployment some time ago though. Over my MBA years I read many extracts from a book by American economist Jeremy Rifkin titled “The End of Work”. Then I read Thomas Friedman’s “The World is Flat”. Both tomes point towards a major decline of the global labour force in a dawning of what is called the Post-Market Era. They both cite technology (automation) and off-shoring as the both the cause and manifestation.

But I think the cause goes a little deeper. If you take a look at the Global Competitiveness Index Report (http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2013-14.pdf ) you will read that a nation’s economy is measured against ’12 pillars’ and concluded as being either Factor (human capital), Efficiency (mechanised) or Innovation (automation) driven. Australia and other developed nations are Innovation Driven. Clearly even the World Economic Forum is not even thinking of what lays beyond the Innovation age – they have no pillars no measure to define the transition even!

An insight to the transition is perhaps Joe Bageant’s book “Deer Hunting with Jesus” where he talks about the impact of the ‘working poor’ as the fastest growing minority group in the USA. The working poor are families with incomes less than $36K per annum or unable to enjoy more than 9 months continuous employment. Shanty towns and ‘no-go’ areas in outer suburban areas of major cities are likely to rise (again) in western economies. Middle class welfare is perhaps unavoidable.

Thomas Friedman also predicts that corporations will increasingly have fewer people within their employ and they will be increasingly specialised. I would add that they are increasingly more likely to be under 35 years of age as the demands of hours, travel and marriage to the company require one to have less work life balance than ever before. The corporate employed will be supported by the growing number of self-employed consultants who will work periodically with the corporate world to tackle projects and problems as they arise.

The Income Generation Generation will think they have this all ‘by the balls’ and not emulate their parents. But technology will pass them by too. Technology such as driverless vehicles will possibly shorten the people employed era of companies like Uber and Lyft, and remove the need for car sales yards at the same time.

I apologise if I am sounding bleak about the future here but I am just trying give a sample of cause and manifestation. The G20 could debate these topics for months...

So what may be done about this dynamic in global economics? I hold a hope for Social Licence. Last year at a Mining Conference I heard a major mining company CEO say the only thing stopping them from going to full automation of an Australian coal mine (ie no people whatsoever in the operation) was Social Licence. In short, they are seen as returning value to the local remote economy where the mine is. The mining company knows that if they don’t return something to the local economy they will be thwarted. Perhaps Federal Governments will seize this issue. Sadly they are more likely to work out when they will not have enough tax dollars rolling in before Social Licence hits their radar.

Are these only my darkest thoughts or do you share a similar vision?