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One of the nation’s top political forecasting groups has announced that the forecast for one Central Valley district is shifting.

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics runs Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, a forecasting group that announced the race for Congressman Devin Nunes’ seat is now a little less sure. Up until now, the race for the 22nd Congressional District has been labeled, “Safe Republican.”

The majority of registered voters are Republican, and Nunes has held the seat for fifteen years. The forecasting group has now rated Nunes’ district to “Likely Republican,” a step away from a confident win. Nunes has faced criticism for being absent from his district. One of his strongest opponents is Andrew Janz, a Fresno County prosecutor who has raised over a million dollars in a bid to turn the seat blue.