Brexit will not affect planned project as US will still consolidate its analysis complex within a Royal Air Force hub for intelligence on security threats

Brexit or not, a symbol of the durability of the US-UK security relationship is found on a Royal Air Force base set in the green rolling hills of the home counties around 70 miles north-west of London.



The US is moving forward with consolidating its transatlantic intelligence analysis operations within a planned Joint Intelligence Analysis Complex at RAF Croughton, a priority for the US military’s European Command (Eucom), which is the US’s anchor in Nato. An intended hub for intelligence on security threats through the US, UK and Nato, the project is critical for “seamless intelligence operations”, according to former Nato commander and Eucom chief General Philip Breedlove.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest RAF Croughton Photograph: Mapbox, OpenStreetMap

The United States’ European Command got its way despite legislative opposition in the US. Six chairmen of House of Representatives committees questioned the location of the center over ostensibly cheaper alternatives in places such as the Azores or elsewhere in Europe. In response, the Pentagon’s inspector general opened an inquiry on 20 May.

But placing the intelligence-analysis complex in the UK reflected a desire among US military and intelligence officials to cement critical security operations within the Special Relationship. To them – even if a majority of UK voters do not seem to agree – Britain remains a vital bridge to Europe, where the US watches with increasing alarm with the spread of the Islamic State on the continent and a resurgent Russia on Nato’s eastern frontier.

“The RAF Croughton site also ensures continuation of the strong Eucom [US European Command]-UK intelligence relationships [through] our sponsorship of the co-located Nato intelligence fusion center,” Breedlove told Congress in February ahead of stepping down in May, referring to an intelligence sharing facility.

And in an echo of what US intelligence and security officials are currently signaling after waking up to a transformed map of Europe, Breedlove continued: “The maintenance of our intelligence relationships and the intelligence sharing we maintain with the UK and Nato remains vital to Eucom’s capability to conduct military operations from and within Europe.”

The prevailing feeling among the world’s governments, international institutions and financial markets after Thursday’s epochal vote for the UK to leave the European Union is uncertainty. But within the US’s security apparatus, the desired sentiment is continuity in its ties to both Britain and Europe.

“The partnership between the United States and the United Kingdom on counterterrorism and other national security issues remains strong and will continue unabated,” said Timothy Barrett, a spokesman for the US office of the director of national intelligence.

US intelligence officials have recently expressed frustration over the relative immaturity of EU intelligence-sharing channels, a circumstance they say contributed to the Isis terrorist attacks in Brussels and Paris. US intelligence officials’ most significant foreign relationship deeply involves the UK, through the Five Eyes surveillance partnership of Anglophone countries, including Canada, Australia and New Zealand. On the continent, they work primarily through bilateral ties to close European allies like Germany. None of those ties are likely to be affected by Brexit.

“At least for the foreseeable future, there will be no change” in the US-UK security relationship, said Richard Morningstar, a former US ambassador to the EU.

Sir Peter Westmacott, the former UK ambassador to Washington, considered the strength of transatlantic security ties unaffected by Brexit on issues ranging from the UK’s commitment to Nato to levels of British defense spending, which remains the highest of any of the US’s Nato allies.

“The way our agencies and armed services work closely together, I see that as unaffected by this,” Westmacott said on a conference call with reporters.

Security establishments prioritize predictability and continuity. In the US as in the UK, they see themselves as bulwarks against fluctuations in public mood. It is a position that often engenders mistrust among left and right, which can see intelligence and military elites as obstacles to their ideological projects – particularly those backed by democratic mandates.

Nato’s Jens Stoltenberg, the transatlantic alliance’s top civilian, attempted to signal such continuity after the Brexit vote. Though the alliance is formally untouched by Brexit, Stoltenberg positioned Nato as an enduring bridge between the US, Britain and Europe – usually something the alliance does in response to US politicians, like Donald Trump, who question its value.

“The UK will remain a strong and committed Nato ally, and will continue to play its leading role in our Alliance,” Stoltenberg said Thursday, calling Nato “more important than ever as a platform for cooperation among European Allies, and between Europe and North America” and an “essential pillar of stability in a turbulent world.”

But in the US, longer-term and second-order questions for a post-Brexit Britain remain.

Should Scotland, which voted to remain in Europe, seek a new referendum on independence – as nationalist first minister Nicola Sturgeon has signalled it might do – both Scotland and England will face massive questions about the future of the Royal Navy and the British nuclear arsenal, both of which have major implications for transatlantic and global security.

UK defense chief Michael Fallon held the British contribution to the Afghanistan war steady through 2016 at 450 troops, primarily for training the Afghan military. But it is difficult to predict what the 2017 troop footprint will look like after the political fallout resulting from David Cameron’s resignation.

An economic downturn following Brexit also calls into question the UK’s ability to purchase big-ticket US defense items like the F-35 warplane, as well as its ability to field and maintain the new aircraft carriers Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales off of which the planes will fly.

Westmacott, who likened Brexit to an earthquake, said he hoped the process of transition to a post-EU Britain would “for the time being, keep issues of defense, security, counterterrorism” out of the political debate.