It was supposed to be over by Christmas, yet the never-ending chaos that is Brexit and the search for a deal keeps rumbling on. Theresa May might have survived her confidence vote, yet with it she became the greatest lame duck prime minister in modern history.

From the few options for the way ahead, none seem workable as things stand. May’s deal, even with a few tweaks, is unlikely to pass without wholesale reform. It appears dead in the water after her latest failed dash to Brussels. The best she could muster on her pre-Christmas shopping trip was the political equivalent of a limp bow to wrap around a gift that is as unappealing to her party as the proverbial lump of coal.

Too little preparation has been made for “Norway for now”, the option increasingly favoured by many Labour and Tory MPs. Oslo has also dismissed the idea. Who would want an unruly Britain joining their club, after all?

None but a hardcore cadre of Eurosceptics support no-deal (known as “World Trade Brexit” in their Orwellian newspeak). Crashing out by accident remains possible ahead of the article 50 deadline in March, with untold damage for the economy. Parliament, though, still has the final say and there is no majority for “no deal” among MPs. Delaying article 50 or unilaterally pulling the plug on the process (to stay in or to find more time to get out), after a People’s Vote or otherwise, would prove a more popular way forward.

There was some hope that the economy would guide the public. Either it would slump and reveal that leaving brought with it huge costs, or sail happily along. Instead, the economy is suffering death by a thousand cuts, inflicted by the lack of clarity over the path ahead. All versions of Brexit will hurt, but the current confusion is causing pain enough already.

You can forgive business and consumers for not knowing which way is up, amid the mess and the wreckage of our political system. GDP growth has slowed and is forecast to lag behind the whole of the EU within the next two years, even with a deal, due to the current malaise. Business investment has slumped to the worst run since the financial crisis a decade ago; households are spending more than they earn for the first time since the 1980s as inflation – due to the weakness in the pound – erodes family incomes; and the property market is stuck in the doldrums.

Despite this, on some measures the economy is doing pretty well. Officially recorded unemployment is at the lowest level since the 1970s and wage growth is accelerating at the fastest rate in a decade.

With the impasse in parliament, the most likely Brexit outcome will be some sort of fudge. Perhaps a Brexit in name only. It would please no one, but it is much better than completely tearing the country further apart. Ministers have warned that the political and social fallout from “betraying” the 17.4 million Brexit voters would be worse than the economic hit from May’s Brexit plan. But what of the 16.1 million remainers? Britain is divided like never before and only a solution that is least worst for both sides will do.

For that reason Brexit will necessarily have a slow-burn impact on the economy. The feared cliff edge will never come as the can is continually kicked down the road. Like Greece before Britain, this is the usual modus operandi for EU negotiations.

The doomsday scenario spelled out by the Bank of England will likely never materialise. Forget forecasts of an immediate recession, surging job losses and crashing house prices. Most economists believe there are higher chances of some kind of deal being done, even if at the last minute.

Against that backdrop, most factors point to growth holding steady next year. The fiscal loosening from Philip Hammond could help, while businesses and consumers cannot put their lives on hold indefinitely. Neither, however, will the economy vastly improve.

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All of this poses a serious challenge for advocates of ditching Brexit entirely through a People’s Vote. Should a second referendum become a reality, arguments that focus on the economic damage may fall flat. A more positive message is required.

Should the economy continue to tick along, without getting much better and without seeming to get much worse, leavers may argue that Brexit wouldn’t be so bad after all.

The majority of voters ignored the dire warnings for the economy made ahead of the 2016 referendum. Yes, there were fantastical promises made by the leave camp for a painless, even beneficial, Brexit – now proven as nonsense. But when the economic armageddon touted by George Osborne never arrived either, arguments over the economic costs and benefits have become debased, and may therefore have less of an impact at the ballot box.

Add to the mix that, for many voters, economic warnings have always had a hollow ring to them. “That’s your bloody GDP, not ours,” came the cry. The same could be said again of the current forecasts, labelled as Project Fear 2.0 or Project Hysteria by Brexit supporters.

Despite total GDP rising by more than £250bn since 2010, official figures show that the poorest third of British households have seen their net total wealth decline over the same time period. Living standards are only improving for the better-off.

Median household wealth for the top 10% richest in Britain has skyrocketed from £752,900 to £1,039,400, while the family in the bottom 10% has seen theirs slump from £54,900 since the Tories took power to £31,900.

The picture is even more skewed across different regions, with the north faring far worse than the south. The average wage in Britain also remains below the pre-financial crisis peak, a decade on from the crash.

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Brexit will do nothing to improve living standards, though when the GDP growth of the last decade has done nothing for the worst off, it’s hardly surprising that messages of economic disaster fall flat.

The only certain tale to tell about the economy is that the current malaise over Brexit is preventing Britain from grasping opportunities to fix our economic problems. It is a slow-burn divorce, rather than one where the economy is left shattered on the floor in pieces.

The outcome that is finally arrived upon must fudge the political divisions – with little help from economic forecasts. The sooner progress can be made, the quicker plans for mending the economy can come to the fore.

• This article was amended on 17 December 2018 to state: “None but a hardcore cadre of Eurosceptics support no-deal …”. An earlier version mistakenly said: “All but a hardcore cadre of Eurosceptics support no-deal …”.