Get your electoral crack here. Nate Silver comments:

There are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent). Hmm ... can anybody think of something that those three states have in common?

Remember when we were all surprised when the 2004 vote totals came in above the exit polls? Rove found a cache of new voters who swamped the model. Could this be happening in reverse?

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