by Vincent Verhei

One year ago at this time, Jared Goff was the backup quarterback behind Case Keenum on a Los Angeles Rams team that had just lost its fourth consecutive game, on its way to a tenth straight losing season. With the 2016 season lost, Keenum was soon sent to the bench and the Rams promoted Goff, the player they had traded six draft picks to acquire in that year's draft. What followed were seven of the worst starts by a quarterback we've seen in a long, long time. Including sacks, Goff averaged 3.75 yards per pass play, the worst by any quarterback with at least 200 passes since Akili Smith in 2000 -- and he did this in an era when passing statistics are going through the roof. By almost any measure, Goff was the worst quarterback in the league last year. Out of the top 32 qualifying passers that season, Goff was 28th in interception rate, 31st in completion rate, and dead last in sack rate, touchdown rate, yards per pass, and adjusted net yards per pass. And of course, he finished with a DVOA of -74.8%, the worst we have ever measured for any player with at least 200 passes.

Oh, what a difference a year makes. Goff leads the league in yards per pass, and can be found in the top ten of most other passing stats as well. He's also fourth in DVOA at 24.0% heading into Monday Night Football. Goff hasn't quite gone from worst to first among quarterbacks in one season, but he has absolutely gone from "perhaps the worst quarterback we have ever seen" to "one of the better starters in the league."

It should go without saying that we have never seen this kind of year-to-year improvement in a quarterback before. The difference between Goff's DVOA this year and last year is 98.8%. To say this is the biggest year-to-year jump on record would be a grotesque understatement. Consider this: before this season, the biggest jump in DVOA from one season to the next we had ever recorded belonged to Nick Foles, whose DVOA went from -20.4% in 2012 to 35.6% in 2013. That's a difference of 56.0% -- barely half of the improvement Goff has shown this year. Foles is in second place in this table, but he is closer to 144th place than he is to first.

Biggest Year-to-Year Improvements in Passing DVOA, 1989-2017 Name



Year N

Year N+1

Difference Year Team DVOA Passes Year Team DVOA Passes Jared Goff 2016 LARM -74.8% 230 2017 LARM 24.0% 250 98.8% Nick Foles 2012 PHI -20.4% 286 2013 PHI 35.6% 347 56.0% John Elway 1992 DEN -23.5% 354 1993 DEN 27.8% 590 51.3% Drew Brees 2003 SD -19.8% 374 2004 SD 31.4% 420 51.2% Donovan McNabb 1999 PHI -51.6% 246 2000 PHI -1.4% 613 50.1% Boomer Esiason 1992 CIN -29.1% 303 1993 NYJ 16.9% 496 46.0% Jake Plummer 2002 ARI -20.1% 569 2003 DEN 25.8% 313 45.9% Josh Freeman 2009 TB -31.1% 311 2010 TB 13.9% 503 45.0% Jay Schroeder 1989 LARD -11.0% 216 1990 LARD 33.6% 365 44.6% Troy Aikman 1990 DAL -20.5% 440 1991 DAL 23.5% 395 44.0% Vinny Testaverde 1997 BAL -1.6% 493 1998 NYJ 42.2% 442 43.8% Brett Favre 2008 NYJ -8.6% 550 2009 MIN 34.5% 564 43.1% Case Keenum 2016 LARM -19.5% 345 2017 MIN 23.4% 250 42.9% Philip Rivers 2012 SD -7.3% 576 2013 SD 34.8% 575 42.2% Kerry Collins 1995 CAR -23.8% 461 1996 CAR 17.5% 381 41.3% Matt Ryan 2015 ATL -1.9% 647 2016 ATL 39.1% 573 40.9% Jim Everett 1993 LARM -21.4% 294 1994 NO 19.3% 560 40.7% David Carr 2002 HOU -47.4% 529 2003 HOU -7.0% 309 40.4% Matt Hasselbeck 2001 SEA -17.8% 360 2002 SEA 21.8% 443 39.6% David Garrard 2006 JAC -4.6% 261 2007 JAC 34.3% 345 38.9% Minimum 200 passes in both years (100 passes in 2017).

The 20 names on this list can be sorted into four categories:

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Bad Rookies, Good Sophomores

This includes Goff, Foles, Donovan McNabb, Josh Freeman, Kerry Collins, and David Carr. Five of those six players were first-round draft picks, four of them going in the top five overall. All of them struggled as rookies -- most of them weren't even full-time starters -- who went on to take quantum leaps with a year under their belts and a full offseason as a top guy. This is something of a cautionary tale for Goff and the Rams. McNabb is the only true superstar in this category. Collins bounced around as a starter for five teams and played in the Super Bowl with the Giants. Carr spent half a decade as a starter for the Texans, leading the league in sacks taken three times, then another five years as a backup. Foles looks to be on a similar career path -- his 2013 campaign sticks out as one of the most out-of-place great seasons in an otherwise mediocre career you'll ever see. Speaking of weird, there's Josh Freeman, who set a franchise record with 80 career touchdown passes in Tampa Bay (a record that still stands, and with Jameis Winston's injury, is guaranteed to last at least one more year) even though they cut him during his age-25 season, and he played his last NFL game at age 27. This shows that big improvements in a player's second season don't necessarily guarantee long-term success.

Late Bloomers

These are guys whose big improvements came in their second or third year as starters, usually after several seasons on the bench: Drew Brees, Troy Aikman, Matt Hasselbeck, and David Garrard. That's two Hall of Fame players, a ten-plus-year starter who played in a Super Bowl, and the last good quarterback Jacksonville had before the dark empires of Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles.

Vets Coming Off Bad Years

This includes John Elway, Jay Schroeder, Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan. Not surprisingly, these improvements coincided with coaching changes. By pretty much any standard, 1992 was Elway's worst year after his rookie season, while 1993 was one of his best, leading the league in completions and passing yards. As it happens, 1993 was also the year Wade Phillips and Jim Fassel replaced Dan Reeves and George Henshaw as head coach and offensive coordinator, respectively. Schroeder had a strange career. He went 8-2 as a starter in Washington in 1987, but lost his job to Doug Williams, and the team went on to win the Super Bowl. He had split time with Steve Beuerlein as the Raiders' starter in 1989, but then Art Shell replaced Tom Flores as head coach in 1990. Shell retained Terry Robiskie as offensive coordinator, but he gave Schroeder a permanent green light on the deep ball. Schroeder responded by leading the league in yards per completion for the third time, and also led the league in yards per pass. Rivers had one of his worst seasons in 2012, with a career-worst 6.8 yards per pass and a league-worst 311 yards lost on sacks. That was Norv Turner's last year in San Diego, and the next year Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt got Rivers back on track -- he completed a league-best 69.5 percent of his passes. Kyle Shanahan was actually Matt Ryan's offensive coordinator in both 2015 and 2016, but given what we have seen from Ryan and the Falcons this year, it's fair to give him a good share of the credit for what Atlanta did last year.

Vets In Their First Seasons With New Teams

This includes Boomer Esiason on the Jets, Jake Plummer on the Broncos, Vinny Testaverde on the Jets, Brett Favre on the Vikings, Case Keenum on the Vikings, and Jim Everett on the Saints. The exact circumstances of each of these moves was different, of course, but each player was at least 29 years old in his first season with a new team, and each showed he wasn't washed up after all. This also shows that football is not an individual sport, and that sometimes a quarterback's performance is a symptom of his team's struggles, not the cause.

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There is a fifth subgroup we could create here, which would be "Quarterbacks Who Played for the Los Angeles Rams in 2016." We have 672 instances of quarterbacks with at least 200 passes in back-to-back years -- what are the odds that two of those with the biggest swings would have been teammates? This is likely another case where the blame for a team's struggles can be spread far and wide, and not just dumped at the feet of the quarterback. It's not just that Goff is better this season than last, but also that Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan are better linemen than Greg Robinson and Tim Barnes; that Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are better wide receivers than Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin; and maybe most of all, that Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur are better coaches than Jeff Fisher and Rob Boras. Keenum, meanwhile, is enjoying similar benefits playing in Minnesota. It takes that kind of sweeping change throughout the organization to create the one-of-a-kind boost we've seen from Goff this year.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Jared Goff LARM 14/22 311 4 0 0 189 189 0 NYG Goff was tied for most DYAR in the second half this week, despite throwing only six passes after halftime. He completed five of them, each for a first down, for a total of 102 yards. On third downs, he went 5-of-8 for 123 yards, with every completion picking up a new set of downs. A ninth third-down throw resulted in a 22-yard DPI and another first down. He threw five deep passes against the Giants. Three were complete for a total of 146 yards; a fourth was the aforementioned 22-yard DPI. 2. Matthew Stafford DET 26/33 361 2 0 1 184 196 -12 GB 3. Dak Prescott DAL 21/33 249 2 0 1 143 126 17 KC Prescott didn't throw a single pass to his running backs, and only two to his tight ends, but 30 to his wide receivers. That's an extreme version of Dallas' typical attack. On the season, the Cowboys are 10th in targets to wide receivers and 20th in targets to tight ends, but only the Titans have thrown fewer passes to their running backs. 4. Carson Wentz PHI 15/27 199 4 0 1 137 132 5 DEN Wentz had some unusual passing splits by direction. He only threw two passes up the middle -- completions for 14 and 17 yards. He wasn't all that great throwing to his left: 6-of-11 for 75 yards, with 27 of those yards coming on one touchdown. And he was boom-or-bust throwing to his right, going 8-of-15, but gaining 128 yards and three touchdowns. All eight of those right-bound completions resulted in first downs. 5. Blake Bortles JAC 24/38 259 1 0 0 123 116 8 CIN Most of Bortles' value came on big plays that moved the Jaguars out of their own end of the field, but he didn't have a lot of luck finishing those drives. Inside the Cincinnati 40, he went 5-of-10 for just 23 yards. 6. Matt Ryan ATL 24/38 313 2 1 2 109 109 0 CAR Ryan struggled badly to keep drives alive. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-10 for 34 yards with only two conversions and one sack. 7. Jay Cutler MIA 34/42 311 3 0 1 108 108 0 OAK Cutler takes the biggest hit from opponent adjustments of any quarterback this week, because the Oakland defense is terrible. A lot of his production came in garbage time. From the point Oakland went up 27-16 with 4:37 left in the fourth quarter, Cutler went 9-of-11 for 109 yards and a touchdown. 8. Jacoby Brissett IND 20/30 308 2 0 3 92 85 7 HOU Brissett was lights-out on Indianapolis' first drive (completing all four passes for gains of 17, 11, and 15 yards, then a 45-yard touchdown) and then hovered just above replacement level for the rest of the game. 9. Derek Carr OAK 21/30 300 1 1 1 88 102 -15 MIA Carr threw a fair share of very short passes to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage with little success, but was much better on throws deeper than that: 13-of-18 (including 11 first downs) for 257 yards and a touchdown, plus a 19th throw that resulted in a DPI for a gain of 18 yards. 10. Drew Brees NO 22/27 263 2 0 1 84 83 1 TB Brees didn't throw a single pass in the red zone, but that's partly because he went right past it with touchdowns of 33 and 36 yards. Most of his mistakes came on throws to his left. On throws to his right or up the middle, he went 10-of-11 for 118 yards. 11. Brett Hundley GB 26/38 245 0 0 3 78 61 18 DET 12. Alex Smith KC 25/34 263 2 1 2 67 66 1 DAL Travis Kelce narrowly missed our top receivers section this week, but Smith was clearly at his best throwing to his tight ends. Well, really, it was just Kelce. He went 1-of-3 for 3 yards throwing to Ross Travis and Demetrius Harris, but to Kelce he went 7-of-9 for 64 yards. All seven of those completions resulted in first downs, including a 2-yard touchdown. One of the incompletions was intercepted, but that came on fourth down with the Chiefs down by 11 late in the fourth quarter and had little impact on the game. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 13. Eli Manning NYG 20/36 220 2 1 2 59 59 0 LARM The magic passing range for Manning against Los Angeles fell 5 to 14 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. In that range, he went 7-of-9 for 88 yards. All seven of those completions produced first downs, including a pair of scores. 14. Marcus Mariota TEN 19/28 218 2 1 3 58 55 2 BAL Mariota gets extra credit for digging Tennessee out of long-yardage holes. He had two completions of 15 yards that failed to gain a first down (nobody else had any) and another that gained 10 yards but not a first down. Kirk Cousins was the only other passer this week with three completions that gained 10-plus yards but did not gain a first down. 15. Josh McCown NYJ 14/20 140 1 0 1 54 43 11 BUF GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: McCown now has -118 passing DYAR this year and -1,449 in his career, still trailing Blaine Gabbert's career standard of -1,928. You know, when I started putting this update in at the beginning of the year, I was not expecting McCown to have one of his best seasons. But McCown is completing more than 70 percent of his passes for the first time and has already matched a career high with 13 touchdowns while throwing a meager (by his standards) seven interceptions. Against the Bills, he didn't throw many deep passes, but he got some big results out of them: 2-of-3 for 43 yards, with a 25-yard touchdown on second-and-15 and an 18-yard gain on second-and-12. 16. Russell Wilson SEA 24/44 297 2 2 2 52 19 32 WAS Coming into the week, Wilson had 30 completions or DPIs on deep passes, second in the league behind Tom Brady. So Washington made a concerted effort to take those passes away. Wilson threw 14 deep passes against Washington, completing only three of them for 73 yards. Wilson was next to last in passing DYAR in the first three quarters, but first in fourth-quarter/overtime DYAR. In the fourth quarter, he went 10-of-14 for 151 yards with a pair of touchdowns and one (very critical) sack. 17. Andy Dalton CIN 10/18 136 0 0 2 51 58 -7 JAC Jacksonville's defense has been so dominant this year that Dalton gets the biggest boost from opponent adjustments of any quarterback this week despite only 20 dropbacks, about half as many as most other players in these tables. That's why Dalton ranks so high this week despite only throwing for five first downs. He converted his first third-down opportunity and then failed on all the rest, going 3-of-7 for 14 yards. 18. Tyrod Taylor BUF 29/40 285 2 0 7 43 50 -7 NYJ Taylor was at his best on passes that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage: 8-of-13 for 128 yards and two touchdowns, with a 14th throw resulting in a 16-yard DPI. 19. Kirk Cousins WAS 21/31 247 0 0 6 27 58 -31 SEA Cousins' rushing DYAR is so low because of a pair of aborted plays that lost a combined 14 yards, though Washington recovered both fumbles. His two completions on Washington's game-winning drive -- completions of 31 and 38 yards -- were worth 47 DYAR. 20. Ryan Fitzpatrick TB 9/15 68 1 0 2 20 10 10 NO All of Fitzpatrick's passes came with Tampa Bay down by at least 13 points in the second half. He threw four passes on third downs, all incomplete. 21. Cam Newton CAR 13/23 137 0 0 1 10 -20 30 ATL Newton did almost nothing on Atlanta's half of the field: 5-of-9 for 34 yards with only one first down, plus one sack. 22. Jameis Winston TB 7/13 67 0 0 2 -8 -7 -2 NO In his one half of action, Winston had only three plays on New Orleans' side of the field: a sack, an incompletion, and a 9-yard gain on third-and-13. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 23. Drew Stanton ARI 15/30 201 2 1 0 -9 -12 3 SF Stanton wasn't on San Francisco's side of the field often, but when he was there he mostly played well: 6-of-9 for 70 yards. One of those throws was intercepted, but all six completions resulted in first downs, including a pair of touchdowns. 24. Joe Flacco BAL 35/52 261 2 2 2 -48 -51 3 TEN Flacco threw seven passes to receivers 10 to 19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Each of the seven passes was completed for a first down, gaining a total of 107 yards. He threw seven passes deeper than that. None were completed; two were intercepted. 25. Brock Osweiler DEN 19/38 208 1 2 3 -54 -54 0 PHI Osweiler failed to convert any of his first four third-down opportunities, and didn't convert a third down until the Broncos were down by 18 points and the game was nearly 25 minutes old. On all third and fourth downs, he went 7-of-14 for 71 yards with four conversions, including a touchdown. It came with Denver losing 44-9, but hey, it was a touchdown. 26. C.J. Beathard SF 24/51 296 0 1 5 -90 -102 11 ARI Beathard was last in DYAR this week when passing to tight ends (4-of-8, 40 yards, one interception) and next to last when passing to wide receivers (8-of-25, 147 yards -- 55 of them on one play). However, he was first in DYAR when passing to running backs (12-of-17, 109 yards). 27. Tom Savage HOU 19/44 219 1 0 2 -110 -110 0 IND Before his improbable late rally, Savage was almost completely ineffective against the Colts. He threw for only three first downs in the first three quarters, going 8-of-26 for 81 yards with one fumble-sack. This was against Indianapolis, mind you, who came into the weekend 30th in pass defense DVOA. Somehow, Savage still had a first-and-goal at the 7 with 18 seconds left to get a winning touchdown. He threw three incompletions, then was sacked and fumbled on fourth down.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Alvin Kamara NO 10 68 1 6/7 84 1 57 21 36 TB Kamara did lose a third-down fumble, but he had three runs of 10 yards or more plus a 6-yard touchdown, while being hit for no gain or a loss just once. Four of his receptions gained at least 11 yards and a first down, including a 33-yard touchdown. 2. Corey Clement PHI 12 51 2 1/1 15 1 55 35 21 DEN Clement's only target resulted in a 15-yard touchdown on third-and-10. He had four runs that went for no gain or a loss, but also had 2- and 4-yard touchdown runs, plus a 28-yarder. 3. Jay Ajayi PHI 8 77 1 0/0 0 0 45 45 0 DEN Seven of Ajayi's eight carries gained at least 1 yard, the longest of them going for 14 and 46 yards, the latter a touchdown. That's as many yards on one carry with Philadelphia as Ajayi had in three of his seven games with Miami this year. 4. Matt Forte NYJ 14 77 2 4/4 19 0 43 42 1 BUF Three runs of 10 or more yards, with two touchdowns, while getting hit for no gain or a loss just twice. Only one of his catches was successful: a 13-yard gain on third-and-4. 5. Lamar Miller HOU 10 57 0 3/4 34 0 34 24 10 IND Miller's two catches were a 19-yard gain on third-and-5 and a 15-yard gain on second-and-8. He had four first downs on the ground, two of them going for 14 yards apiece, while being hit for no gain or a loss just once.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Jay Ajayi PHI 8 77 1 0/0 0 0 45 45 0 DEN 2. Matt Forte NYJ 14 77 2 4/4 19 0 43 42 1 BUF 3. Marshawn Lynch OAK 14 57 2 2/2 6 0 34 36 -2 MIA Beast Mode lives! Lynch had his struggles against Miami, with five carries for no gain or a loss. But he had touchdowns of 22 and 3 yards, plus two more first downs on gains of 14 and 6 yards, the latter a conversion on third-and-3. 4. Corey Clement PHI 12 51 2 1/1 15 1 55 35 21 DEN 5. Lamar Miller HOU 10 57 0 3/4 34 0 34 24 10 IND

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Jonathan Stewart CAR 11 22 0 0/0 0 0 -67 -67 0 ATL This is the worst game for a running back so far this season, and among the 10 worst games on record on rushing DYAR only. No first downs. In fact, no successful carries -- Stewart's two longest runs gained 9 and 4 yards, and he fumbled on both of them. Seven of his 11 carries gained 2 yards or less.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Jonathan Stewart CAR 11 22 0 0/0 0 0 -67 -67 0 ATL

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Robert Woods LARM 4 5 70 17.5 2 54 NYG Woods' two touchdowns were a 4-yard gain on second-and-goal and a 52-yard gain on third-and-33. He also had two third-down conversions, one on a 10-yard catch, one on a 22-yard DPI. 2. Terrance Williams DAL 9 9 141 15.7 0 52 KC Williams' only failed completion was a 6-yard gain on second-and-13. Five of his catches produced first downs, the longest a 56-yarder. 3. T.Y. Hilton IND 5 9 175 35.0 2 47 HOU Hilton only had three first downs on the day, but what big plays they were: a 45-yard touchdown; a 30-yard gain on second-and-12; and an 80-yard touchdown on third-and-9. 4. Jared Cook OAK 8 9 126 15.8 0 44 MIA Six of Cook's catches gained first downs, including gains of 27 and 35 yards. He had three third-down conversions on the day. 5. Golden Tate DET 7 9 113 16.1 0 43 GB