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U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst’s approval rating has fallen among all Iowans as she begins mounting her re-election campaign, but a plurality of Iowa voters say they would definitely vote to re-elect her.

According to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Ernst’s approval rating has slipped from a high point of 57% in February 2019 to 47% today.

Still, 41% of likely voters say they would definitely vote to re-elect her if the election were held today, while 31% say they would definitely vote to elect someone else. Another 20% say they would consider voting for someone else, 3% say they would not vote and 6% are unsure.

Ernst, a freshman Republican from Red Oak, was the first Iowa woman elected to Congress, defeating Democrat Bruce Braley in 2014. She will be on the ballot in November in a marquee race that could become a key target for Democrats looking to retake the Senate. It has already been the focus of millions of dollars of outside spending.

Elections analysts rate the race as “leaning Republican.” But the campaigning is only just taking off in earnest after presidential campaigns sucked up much of Iowa’s political oxygen in the year leading up to the February 2020 caucuses.

The poll of 800 Iowa adults, which includes 667 likely voters, was conducted by Selzer & Co., March 2-5. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Iowa adults and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for likely voters.

Ernst approval falls

Over the past year, Ernst has focused on securing year-round access to gasoline with higher blends of ethanol, combating sexual assault in the military and working toward the re-authorization of the Violence Against Women Act — drawing criticism from Democrats along the way.

She’s also carefully worked to both embrace Republican President Donald Trump, who is popular among Iowa Republicans, while distancing herself from some of his more controversial acts.

► MORE:Previewing possible 2020 campaign message, Joni Ernst highlights her accomplishments in D.C.

Between February 2019 and this March, Ernst’s approval rating has fallen by 10 percentage points, from 57% to 47%.

Seventy-nine percent of Republicans approve of the job she’s doing, as well as 45% of independents and 14% of Democrats.

Ernst is also rated highly by evangelicals and those who live in rural areas — with 64% and 61%, respectively, saying they approve of the job she’s doing. And 53% of men, compared to 42% of women, approve of the job she’s doing.

Ernst’s favorability numbers largely follow her approval ratings: 46% think favorably of her (down from 56% a year ago), and 36% have an unfavorable view (up from 29%).

“The only thing I like about Joni, she stands up for what she believes in — whether you like it or not, she does,” said Kerri Christian, a 62-year-old poll respondent from Center Point. She is among the 20% of likely voters who say they will not definitely vote for Ernst or her Democratic competitor but are open to considering the options.

“I’m a registered Democrat, but that doesn’t mean anything anymore,” she said. “You have to go with your gut. I voted for George Bush. It all depends on what you think they’re going to do for you as a community.”

Christian said she is open to voting for Ernst — or one of the Democrats. She is looking for someone to show they can stand up to Trump, whom she believes will be re-elected in the fall.

“You have to get people in there who are willing to take him on,” she said. “If that’s Joni, then that’s Joni.”

Although Ernst’s job approval and favorability ratings have fallen, a plurality of likely voters in every congressional district except the 2nd say they would definitely vote to re-elect her. Ernst leads 47% to 33% in the 1st District; 40% to 28% in the 3rd District; 40% to 25% in the 4th District; and she ties 36% to 36% in the 2nd District.

Seventy-four percent of Republicans say they will definitely vote to re-elect Ernst, and 65% of Democrats say they will definitely vote to elect someone else.

Independents are split, with 32% saying they definitely would vote for Ernst, 25% saying they definitely would support someone else, and 31% saying they would consider voting for someone else.

Democratic primary gets underway

A cadre of Democrats seeking to oust Ernst from the Senate has already begun campaigning across the state and raising money, though the poll suggests they’ll need to do more to raise their visibility in the three months leading up to the June 2 primary.

Those challengers include retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken, children’s advocate Kimberly Graham, urban planner Theresa Greenfield, businessman Eddie Mauro and contractor Cal Woods.

Each of them is unknown to at least 70% of Iowans.

► MORE:Who's running for Congress in Iowa in 2020?

Blake McSarling, a 34-year-old Ottumwa resident, said he’s seen little about the Senate race so far but hopes Democrats nominate U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders for president. McSarling, a registered Democrat, voted for Trump in 2016 but now wonders if that was the right call.

“I’m looking for somebody down to earth,” he said of the Senate race. “Somebody who’s not been in politics forever — somebody who’s kind of outside of it, who has goals for regular people, not just for industry.”

Greenfield, who has earned the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is better known than she was in February 2019.

Today, 27% of Iowans say they know enough about her to say whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her, compared with 12% a year ago. She fares slightly better among Democrats — 34% of whom know her.

The Senate Majority PAC, which backs Democratic Senate candidates and is aligned with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, recently made a $1 million television ad buy in Iowa. It released an ad highlighting Greenfield’s biography and appears mostly aimed at introducing her to Iowans, which could help boost her name among potential voters.

Among Iowans, 14% say they have a favorable view of Greenfield (up from 8%), and 13% say they have an unfavorable view (up from 4%). Among Democrats, 30% view her favorably, and 4% view her unfavorably.

Other Democratic candidates, who have garnered less prominent support, have favorability numbers that are about on par with Greenfield’s.

Franken, who has targeted Greenfield for her acceptance of so-called dark money, is viewed favorably by 17% of Iowans and unfavorably by 10%. He is viewed favorably by 27% of Democrats and unfavorably by 1%.

Graham, a progressive candidate who frequently attended and campaigned at events for Sanders ahead of the Iowa caucuses, is viewed favorably by 19% of Iowans and unfavorably by 12%. Among Democrats, she is viewed favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 2%.

Mauro, who lost a 2018 primary race to now-U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne, a Democrat, for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, is viewed favorably by 12% of Iowans and unfavorably by 14%. Among Democrats, he is viewed favorably by 27% and unfavorably by 5%.

Woods is underwater as well, with more Iowans viewing him unfavorably (13%) than favorably (9%). He fares better among Democrats, with 17% viewing him favorably and 3% viewing him unfavorably.

Colin Scanes, a 72-year-old Urbandale resident, said he’s heard all five candidates speak.

“I think each of them have their own strengths, but I think Mike is by far the strongest,” he said, noting that he likes Franken’s military background and that he was born in northwest Iowa.

But Kerri Christian, the Center Point resident, said she needs to do her research before supporting any candidate.

“I haven’t really studied them too much yet. I’m just starting to,” she said. “It’s a long ways from November.”

About this poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted March 2-5, 2020, for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and questions based on the sample of 667 likely voters in the 2020 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 or 3.8 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

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