The following scenario is fictional, but it's based on open source reports of military hardware currently deployed in and around the Middle East.

Part One: Interception and Escalation

The cockpit of an F-22 Raptor is a lonely place. Despite all the talk about network-centric warfare, integrated sensors, and information sharing, the Raptor pilot is alone in the sky. Today, the single-seat stealth warplane is flying solo on a mission in "contested airspace"—sanitized military jargon that means enemy missiles are pointed skyward. It's safer to fly alone. Any escorts would just alert the Syrian and Russian radar crews below to the presence of the F-22.

The Raptor is hunting prey that is far beneath its stature. As the world's premier air superiority fighter, it's made to dogfight other fighters, and beat them. But this mission has a much more humble target—a small fleet of Syrian transport helicopters hauling large barrels slung under their fuselages. These are barrel bombs. They're not the garden-variety explosive that has terrorized Syrian civilians for years, either—the kind filled with long pipe bombs. This one contains canisters of chlorine gas.

The mission is meant to make a point—not to start World War III.

The Assad regime's use of such a vicious weapon is not unprecedented. Chlorine-carrying barrel bombs hit three villages in April 2014, killing 13 and wounding as many as 500 people. More recently, the gas is taking a toll on the ground troops who are its targets—members of the Free Syrian Army that are under attack by Syrian government troops and Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah militias on the ground. Defensive positions struck by these gas bombs are weakened enough for the waves of fighters to advance. This is how the Assad regime will win the war.

Condemnation of this bombing has grown to such a fever pitch around the world that the U.S.-led coalition has to act. Those barrel-carrying helicopters are easy prey for any fighter, but Syrian anti-aircraft missiles guard the helos as they advance toward Syrian rebels. That's why a multi-billion-dollar American stealth fighter suddenly finds itself shooting down Syrian helicopters. It can fly into this airspace appearing on radar screens as something as small as a golf ball.

It's an escalation to be sure—the first direct coalition strikes against Assad's regime. But the White House figures that the world will see these strikes as a limited response to stop the use of heinous chemical weapons. The mission is meant to make a point, not to start World War III.

The F-22 pilot knows the helicopters are out there. Distant AWACs airplanes with high-power radar picked up the Syrian aircraft as they lifted off. Now the Raptor pilot switches on the fighter's AN/APG-77. This Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar uses flickering beams that can are highly accurate. (Normally emitting radar is a good way to get spotted, but the F-22's radar has what the pros call "agile frequency," meaning it operates at several frequencies, making it harder to detect.)

The technology is on the F-22's side. So is the element of surprise. After America sat on the sidelines as Russian and Syrian warplanes pounded opposition fighters, no one expected an aggressive response. No one is expecting the Raptor to be on the hunt.

That includes the helicopter crews. The AESA radar clearly picks out four helicopters. The pilot can flicker it on and off to help stay stealthy. The Raptor can fire from 40 miles away, but closes to 20 miles before loosing four AIM-120C AMRAAM air-air missiles. This is close enough to see the targets on the warplane's targeting scopes. Each missile streaks towards a separate target, each weapon's own radar homing in on the helos at the end of their supersonic flight.

The helicopters detonate in four bright flares and fall to the desert floor in balls of flaming debris. The Raptor has already wheeled around and headed for home, supercruising out of Syrian airspace at Mach 1.

Part 2 : Retaliation and Response

The American attack changes the game in Syria. The Hawaii Air National Guard, deployed to an undisclosed airbase in the Middle East since September, has 20 F-22s in its inventory alone. Used the right way, these fighters can end the air supremacy that is enabling Assad's regime to maintain its hold on Syria.

Meanwhile, the Russians are seething. It's not just that the U.S. attacked. It's that the Russian fighter escorts they deploy to protect Assad's helicopters can do nothing to protect them. The Raptors stay out of range, strike and vanish without even being spotted.

It has to be the Russians.

Even worse, the Syrian regime cannot respond. Okay, it could, by shooting at U.S. warplanes that are flying over Syria to attack their shared enemy, the Islamic State (ISIS.) Besides the F-22s, none of the American planes are particularly stealthy, and the Syrians have Russian-made surface-to-air missiles that threaten those U.S. fighters and bombers. But to do so invites counterattack. The U.S. could launch B-2 Spirit stealth bomber attacks and cruise missile strikes against Syrian air defenses that the Syrians can't counter. While they were at it, the United States would also destroy the Syrian air force bases and command centers. Not a great outcome for Assad.

If anyone were to shoot back at the Americans, it will have to be someone big enough to scare the U.S. with the possibility of retribution. It has to be the Russians.

Russia, though, is in the same mutually-assured pickle as the U.S. It wants to make a point that American aggression cannot go unchecked, but Putin wants to do so without starting a world war. Shooting at the American fighters and bombers that are going after ISIS is not a good idea—that feels too much like total war. The F-22s would be logical targets but they are too tough to hunt. But there's another kind of coalition aircraft that is more exposed, and taking out even a few of them out will be a crippling blow to the United States air power.

The Russians set their sights on a weak link—American KC-135 aerial refueling tankers.

KC-135 U.S. Air Force

Air-to-air refueling is a strategic lynchpin for the Pentagon. It doesn't just extend the range of fighters and bombers. Having extra gas enables the warplanes to spend time over the battlefield, picking targets and supporting the troops below. Tankers aren't a luxury. They are vital for any close air support of the Syrians or Kurds fighting ISIS. Some U.S. fighters burn so much fuel that they can stay over battlefields for only a few minutes if they don't refuel. The Kremlin figures that a weakened United States will be all that more eager for a negotiated deal. And if the United States wants to respond, well, its combat strength will be kneecapped.

Blowing up KC-135s is easier said than done, though. The Americans refill over Kurdish- or rebel-controlled areas of Syria, or tank up over Iraq. The refuelers fly from bases in Greece, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. With all the coalition radar in the area, Russian fighters would have a hard time sneaking up on them. However, the Russians have a different weapon that can get them: warships parked off the Syrian coast.

The Moskva is a cruiser, and the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet. It's a capable warship, able to fight submarines, surface ships, and aircraft with an array of sensors and weapons. The ship is equipped with S-300PMU-2 batteries that can attack targets from 120 miles away. The system is considered one of the most potent anti-aircraft weapons in the world, although it's never been fired at a warplane in anger. That's about to change.

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The escalation begins with a strategic sacrifice. Russian helicopters in Syria are loaded with fuel drums and flown on a flight profile that mirrors a barrel bomb mission. The Raptors take the bait, immolate the Russians in midair, and give the Kremlin a talking point about "slain Russian troops." Now it can say the Americans fired first and cast its next steps as self-defense.

The Moskva's radar spots the tankers easily as they make racetrack patterns in the sky. The refueling aircraft are 135 feet long and have virtually no defenses. They fly without escorts. The Russians wait until fate deals them a good hand—one aerial refueler from Greece is heading back to its base, over the Mediterranean. Another is loitering near Aleppo, tanking U.S. fighters. All are within range of the Moskva's 48N6E2 missiles.

The Med is crowded with warships. The United States has four Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers off the Syrian coast, and part of their job is to shadow Russian warships. They've followed miles behind as the Moskva creeps along the coastline, north of their new airbase in Latakia.

And when the pair of SAMs rise from the Moskva, the crew on the bridge knows this war has entered a new, scary phase. They go into combat alert and radio to their base in Rota, Spain. By the time the news reaches commanders, the refueling aircraft are obliterated, the eight crew members onboard killed instantly.

Any tankers readying for takeoff are held on their tarmacs. Combat sorties are canceled. Airborne fighters and bombers are ordered to return to airbases. One fighter runs dry and flames out on the way and the pilots eject into Kurdish territory.

The Air Force operates more than 400 KC-135s, so in theory, losing two should not cripple an air campaign. Yet the threat alone keeps them grounded. And with tankers grounded, very few missions to support anti-ISIS and anti-Assad forces can proceed. (B-1 bombers flying from Turkey still operate over northeastern Syria, but only out of the range of the Moskva's missiles.)

While Russia claims its right to self-defense and takes to the world stage claiming its "limited actions" are meant to deescalate the conflict in Syria, Pentagon planners are preparing a response within hours. The humiliation of the attack and forced cessation of combat missions are just too great.

Orders are passed to the American guided missile destroyers. The Mediterranean is about to erupt.

USS Donald Cook Defense.gov

Part 3: Battle in a bathtub

The United States must take down the Moskva, and American air power isn't the solution. The Russian frigate's S-300s and shorter-range anti-air systems are too formidable to approach. The radar alone makes a surprise attack from the air impossible.

The USS Donald Cook holds 280 seamen—seamen who watched as the nearby Russian warship launched its SAMs against American pilots. The fear of attacking Russia is almost lost amid the thrill of getting payback. The 500-foot-long Arleigh Burke-class destroyer is a floating arsenal of anti-ship, anti-sub and anti-missile weapons. She's homeported at Rota since 2014, and has been harassed by aggressive Russian Su-24 aircraft.

The first rule of naval warfare is to find and fix the enemy's location. In the confines of the Med, this is not hard. The Moskva has crept south, closer to the protective umbrella of the Latakia airfield, where Russian warplanes are operating. The warship feels safer there with dozens of friendly fighters nearby.

The next step is to close in. The Cook needs to be within 60 miles to execute its attack, and edges slowly closer. As it does, the Moskva's escort—a smaller destroyer called the Smetlivy—approaches menacingly. The hails from the vessel to the American destroyer are ignored. The Russians give the order to scramble fighters.

At the same time, the Donald Cook's deck erupts in smoke and flame. There are flat panels on the bow and stern decks, sectioned into grids. Each of the 61 grid squares is a launch tube for a missile. Tonight, many of these tubes are loaded for a ship-to-ship fight, armed with RGM-84 Harpoon missiles. The tubes are standalone, meaning they can be fired almost simultaneously.

Fifteen Harpoons rise from the deck within seconds and turn toward the targets. These are not dumb bullets, but smart and lethal unmanned aerial vehicles. The missiles dive for the sea surface, skimming the waves at 530 mph to evade radar-based countermeasures. Radar in the missiles' nose cones steer the missiles toward their targets.

The flight paths seem clear. Ten are heading for the Moskva, while the remainder are cruising toward the Smetlivy. Onboard the Moskva, the Russian sailors are tracking the inbound threats. The attack is too fast for humans to fight, so the Russians are relying on six AK-630s—automatic, radar-guided rotary cannons—to track and shoot down the incoming missiles.

The 30mm shells explode near the oncoming Harpoon missiles, downing four of the 10 approaching the Moskva. The Smetlivy is not that lucky, and only two damaged Harpoons spiral into the ocean. The AK-630s are good, especially against the subsonic-speed Harpoons, but it takes more than one hit to disable the oncoming anti-ship missiles.

Each Harpoon carries a 488-pound warhead. The Russian flagship could survive a single impact, even at the waterline. But multiple strikes shatter the hull and break the warships into pieces that quickly sink beneath the waves. The Smetlivy virtually disintegrates under the barrage.

Russian warplanes close in, but their furious pilots were not expecting a fight against the U.S. Navy, and aren't armed with the long-range missiles needed to hit the retreating ship. The Cook's vertical launchers didn't hold only anti-ship missiles—the ship has SM-2 anti-aircraft missiles, too. And a collection of Turkish ships are approaching as a screen against counterattack.

Syria, however, has coastal missiles at the ready. The Russians work the radios and demand the Syrians unleash their coastal defenses—P-800 Yakhont anti-ship missiles that can strike ships in the eastern Mediterranean. These are no Harpoons. They can travel at supersonic speeds and hit targets 180 miles away.

But the Syrians dither, afraid of a counterattack. By the time the order is given, the Donald Cook (after a tense hour of traveling at a maximum speed of 30 knots) is safely out of range and behind the Turkish flotilla.

Part 4: The End of the Start of World War III

The air over Syria now once again belongs to the coalition—as long as the Syrians don't activate their air defenses. For what it's worth, the Assad regime is not interested in being the instrument of Russian vengeance, and thereby becoming a U.S. target.

It's time to talk, or keep fighting. Geopolitics can be a lot like a playground or prison yard. Once blows are thrown, no one wants to stop fighting until they land a few. Everyone wants to be the one who struck last—and ended the fight. This is the chance for Russia and the U.S. to put in the pin in the grenade and avert World War III. They don't.

Once again, Russia needs to sap the air power of the coalition. The tankers, now flying with escorts, again appear to enable Syrian missions against the Islamic State and threaten the Assad regime. The tankers can't be easily attacked from the air, particularly with F-22s flying escort.

So instead of taking to a bargaining table, Russia chooses another risky option. Its Caspian Sea fleet has already proven its ability to launch the long-range missiles into Syria. Back in early October, ships in the Caspian sea fired 26 missiles at 11 targets in north and northwest Syria. The volley crossed Iranian airspace and landed on what the Russians called ISIS facilities. Out of two dozen, a handful lost control and landed in Iran. The world called this a failure, missing the point: the Russian navy's Kaliber cruise missiles have proved they can travel 1,000 miles to make precision strikes.

This time, the target is inside Turkey. It's the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, on the Syrian border. This is a staging area for U.S. aerial refueling aircraft and fighters. There is no defense on hand against the barrage.

After the missile strike, events spin out of control. The United States responds. B-1Bs from an airbase outside Dubai hunt the Caspian Sea fleet with long-range missiles and lace the area with sea mines. Turkish and U.S. warplanes dogfight Russian fighters over Syrian airspace. Russia responds with aggressive pushes in the Ukraine, mainly to distract and threaten Europe, and commandeer the Syrian regime's surface-to-air batteries to launch attacks from the ground. Refugees flee in greater numbers. Iran stirs up sectarian violence and attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq. The body count mounts on all sides.

In the meantime, ISIS is on the march as chaos spreads. The ostensible reason everyone is in Syria is to defeat the Islamic State. But the fight has only enabled them to thrive.

No one wanted World War III. But now that it's started, one step at a time, it's hard to stop.

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