

EU Referendum: a very simple deal 01/02/2016

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The latest YouGov poll on the referendum gives the leavers 42 percent and the remains 38 percent, with the "don't knows" at 18 percent.

And, as with all the other polls so far, the results are irrelevant. Whether we stay in or leave the EU is not what people are going to be voting on. The issue will be whether voters believe whether Mr Cameron has brought home the bacon from Brussels.



Last November, YouGov



The thing is, while the straight leave-remain polls have shown a considerable degree of volatility, the "deal" ratios have remained remarkably constant.



In July 2012, for instance, Andrea Leadsom was recalling a YouGov survey



Currently, as of 28 January, if Mr Cameron brings home a good deal, leavers drop to 25 percent and remains soar to 49 percent, with the don't knows at 23 percent. If Mr Cameron drops the ball, leavers take 46 and the remains drop to 31 percent, with the don't knows again at 19 percent.



I don't know how often or how many times I have to write this, but this referendum boils down to a very simple scenario: Mr Cameron brings home a "good" deal, we lose. If he fails to come back with a deal, we win. All the rest is noise.



And, as we see Mr Tusk in London for another set of last-minute talks, and more of the "will-he, won't he" drama, I am sure I am far from alone in finding the whole thing crashingly boring. One yearns to tell the man: "get on with it!"



But everything we're hearing tells is that Mr Cameron is not going to bring back from Brussels anything bankable in February. And assuming he still wants to win, that is as good a reason as any why he will not be going for a June referendum.



I'm also told that the devolved MPs – and especially the Scots Nats, but also Scottish Labour, are dead set against a June referendum. With Corbyn scenting an easy victory, with the backing of rebel Tory MPs, we could see another purdah in the making, with the House of Commons throwing out the Regulations setting the referendum date.



Mr Cameron's Parliamentary spies are good enough to keep him appraised of the mood of the House, when it comes to such major issues, and he will already be aware that an attempt to mount an early referendum could lead to a humiliating defeat. On those grounds alone, he is unlikely to try it.



For all the fluff, therefore, that puts the more important issue back where it always was – settling the designation battle, and then getting behind a common vision and workable exit plan. The media and the pundits will be focusing on the fluff, as they always do, but these are the real issues to settle.



As to the designation battle, it looks as if attempts to oust Cummings have indeed failed – in a manner of speaking. But if he can't be forced out of Vote Leave, what may happen is that everybody else leaves Vote Leave, with Cummings ending up on his own.



That alone is something of a vindication of my stance. I gave Cummings a lot of my time, and freely offered him advice. When I last saw him in September last year, we parted on cordial terms, shaking hands as we parted. Weeks later, without the courtesy of any further contact, I found myself confined to outer darkness, for reasons which still have not been explained.



Now Anne McElvoy, for the



This also vindicates Arron Banks's stance. There is no way anyone sensible can work with Cummings, and if he can't be ejected from office, then the only thing left is to isolate and contain him.



But, as we've been



With Cummings goings, by whatever means, the real day of reckoning is coming. And there is very little room for compromise. And, as with all the other polls so far, the results are irrelevant. Whether we stay in or leave the EU is not what people are going to be voting on. The issue will be whether voters believe whether Mr Cameron has brought home the bacon from Brussels.Last November, YouGov was telling us that, if the Prime Minister brought home a good deal, leavers would drop to 23 percent and remains would soar to 50 percent, with the don't knows at 24 percent. If, on the other hand, Mr Cameron failed to secure a deal, leavers took a winning majority of 46 and the remains dropped to 32 percent, with the don't knows at 19 percent.The thing is, while the straight leave-remain polls have shown a considerable degree of volatility, the "deal" ratios have remained remarkably constant.In July 2012, for instance, Andrea Leadsom was recalling a YouGov survey that showed 48 percent leavers and 31 percent remains. If a new deal was negotiated, 42 became remains and 34 percent leavers.Currently, as of 28 January, if Mr Cameron brings home a good deal, leavers drop to 25 percent and remains soar to 49 percent, with the don't knows at 23 percent. If Mr Cameron drops the ball, leavers take 46 and the remains drop to 31 percent, with the don't knows again at 19 percent.I don't know how often or how many times I have to write this, but this referendum boils down to a very simple scenario: Mr Cameron brings home a "good" deal, we lose. If he fails to come back with a deal, we win. All the rest is noise.And, as we see Mr Tusk in London for another set of last-minute talks, and more of the "will-he, won't he" drama, I am sure I am far from alone in finding the whole thing crashingly boring. One yearns to tell the man: "get on with it!"But everything we're hearing tells is that Mr Cameron is not going to bring back from Brussels anything bankable in February. And assuming he still wants to win, that is as good a reason as any why he will not be going for a June referendum.I'm also told that the devolved MPs – and especially the Scots Nats, but also Scottish Labour, are dead set against a June referendum. With Corbyn scenting an easy victory, with the backing of rebel Tory MPs, we could see anotherin the making, with the House of Commons throwing out the Regulations setting the referendum date.Mr Cameron's Parliamentary spies are good enough to keep him appraised of the mood of the House, when it comes to such major issues, and he will already be aware that an attempt to mount an early referendum could lead to a humiliating defeat. On those grounds alone, he is unlikely to try it.For all the fluff, therefore, that puts the more important issue back where it always was – settling the designation battle, and then getting behind a common vision and workable exit plan. The media and the pundits will be focusing on the fluff, as they always do, but these are the real issues to settle.As to the designation battle, it looks as if attempts to oust Cummings have indeed failed – in a manner of speaking. But if he can't be forced out of Vote Leave, what may happen is that everybody else leaves Vote Leave, with Cummings ending up on his own.That alone is something of a vindication of my stance. I gave Cummings a lot of my time, and freely offered him advice. When I last saw him in September last year, we parted on cordial terms, shaking hands as we parted. Weeks later, without the courtesy of any further contact, I found myself confined to outer darkness, for reasons which still have not been explained.Now Anne McElvoy, for the Mail on Sunday , is writing of Cummings as a man who "could start a fight in an empty bar", witness his totally pointless re-opening of the Article 50 controversy.This also vindicates Arron Banks's stance. There is no way anyone sensible can work with Cummings, and if he can't be ejected from office, then the only thing left is to isolate and contain him.But, as we've been keen to point out , that alone doesn't resolve the situation. The leave campaign will then have to address its vision statement, and formulate its exit plan. The day cannot be put off for ever, and the debate cannot be skirted. So far, as a campaign, we've been coasting.With Cummings goings, by whatever means, the real day of reckoning is coming. And there is very little room for compromise.





