2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)

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Very few defenses are elite year to year, and performance can be tough to predict. One way to approach the position is to form a committee of two (or more) defenses that have favorable combined schedules but are being drafted in much later rounds than the so-called elite defenses. The idea is that a mediocre defense with a great matchup will provide approximately the same production as a great defense with a mediocre or bad matchup.

Clayton Gray of Footballguys.com does an excellent job of compiling the strength of schedule data, and he even writes his own DTBC column (though he calls it ‘TDBC’). However, I like to go a step further and add the impact of home and away games, as middling defenses have a tendency to score more fantasy points at home.

Last year, my top recommended combination was Green Bay and Dallas, which turned out well as both teams turned out to have Top 10 fantasy defenses. While I would have been better off just running the Packers out there every week, the duo’s recommended schedule netted 135 points (under a high performance scoring system), which were DT5-type numbers. My alternate recommendation, GB/ARI, netted 142 points, so DTBC does work.

Here’s how I identify the top DTBC combinations:

1. Use FBG’s SOS for DT9-DT28 along with David Dodds’ defensive projections to produce a week-by-week estimate for each defense.

I eliminated NYJ, MIN, GB, PHI, BAL, PIT, DAL and SF from the study because all eight defenses are being drafted by the 12th round, which is just too early to start a DTBC. Please note that I don’t use Dodds’ fantasy point projections, just the projections for points allowed, sacks, interceptions, fumbles and touchdowns scored. So the point totals won’t look the same.

2. Apply home/away adjustment.

With relation to a team’s mean performance, I found that middling defenses (DT6-DT25) scored 2.8% higher at home in 2009 and 8.6% higher in 2008. I took the average (5.7%) and applied a bonus to home games and a handicap to away games. The more home games, the better.

3. Run the numbers for the resulting 190 possible combinations to find the best DTBCs.

I also calculated the playoff averages for Weeks 14-16 (and just Weeks 15 & 16 for a two-week playoff system) as a tiebreaker.

So now I’m armed with a list of 190 possibilities sorted by total projected points. But numbers aren’t enough. I want a real-world perspective on this list. So I enlist the help of our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to give his thoughts on the defenses in question. After some discussion, we narrow the list of the best candidates to eight teams: SD, NO, NYG, CIN, MIA, CHI, NE and IND. When picking our DTBC, we shouldn’t stray from these eight teams.

Here are Anthony’s rankings along with his thoughts on each defense:

1. SAN DIEGO

Combines well with: NE, CHI, MIA, IND

Anthony’s thoughts: The Chargers lost two starters from their 2009 secondary when Antonio Cromartie was traded to the Jets and Kevin Ellison was released after he was arrested on felony drug possession charges. Cromartie isn’t coming off a great year, but Nathan Vasher and Donald Strickland are unlikely to be upgrades at the corner position. The front seven is good and if Shawne Merriman is healthy it’ll be even better, but the secondary is a concern.

2. NEW YORK GIANTS

Combines well with: IND, CIN, MIA, SD, NO, NE

Anthony’s thoughts: This should be a vastly improved defense in 2010. The offseason additions of Keith Bulluck, Deon Grant, Antrel Rolle and rookies Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph were key, but they don’t hold a candle to the team’s decision to punt ’09 coordinator Bill Sheridan. His schemes didn’t match the Giants’ personnel and quite frankly, just didn’t work. While the health status of Kenny Phillips and Osi Umenyiora is of major concern, the hiring of former Bills’ DC Perry Fewell should mean that the G-Men will get back to what they do best in 2010: Getting after the quarterback.

3. NEW ORLEANS

Combines well with: NYG, CHI, MIA

Anthony’s thoughts: Coordinator Gregg Williams will once again be the key to the Saints’ success on defense, but the offseason produced more questions than answers. After completely ignoring the position during the draft, the Saints have a hole at outside linebacker now that Scott Fujita is in Cleveland. Can Jo-Lonn Dunbar take over on the strong-side? Is Darren Sharper healthy? Can youngsters Malcolm Jenkins and Patrick Robinson contribute? At least one thing’s for sure, Reggie Bush is always a major threat in the return game.

4. CINCINNATI

Combines well with: CHI, NE, NYG, MIA

Anthony’s thoughts: Led by a young core featuring Leon Hall, Jonathan Joseph, Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, it’s hard not to love the Bengals’ potential on defense heading into the season. Plus, getting a healthy Antwan Odom (Achilles’ surgery) back is obviously huge for the team’s pass-rush.

5. MIAMI

Combines well with: SD, IND, NYG, CIN, CHI, NO

Anthony’s thoughts: There might not be a more productive all-around linebacker in the league than Karlos Dansby. His addition, coupled with the hiring of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan (who was behind the Broncos’ defensive success last season) has some in the media believing that the Dolphins are legit postseason contenders again.

6. CHICAGO

Combines well with: SD, CIN, IND, NE, MIA, NO

Anthony’s thoughts: The biggest addition was obviously Julius Peppers, who should help the Bears mask their deficiencies in the secondary by generating a pass rush. Although, if Peppers decides that this is one of the years he wants to take off, then Chicago is going to be in trouble. Their secondary is a legitimate concern, but the additions of Chris Harris and Major Wright should help. Overall, this is an improved team on paper and getting a healthy Brian Urlacher (who missed virtually the entire 2009 season with an injury) back will help. But it remains to be seen if everything will come together for Da Bears.

7. NEW ENGLAND

Combines well with: SD, CHI, CIN, NYG

Anthony’s thoughts: The key to the Pats’ entire offseason was being able to reach a deal with DT Vince Wilfork. The additions of CB Devin McCourty, DE Jermaine Cunningham and LB Brandon Spikes via the draft will help, as will the return of a healthy Jerod Mayo. This isn’t a defense that stands out on paper, but nobody gets more out of his roster or his schemes than Bill Belichick.



8. INDIANAPOLIS

Combines well with: CHI, SD, NYG, MIA

Anthony’s thoughts: As usual, the Colts relied on the draft to make upgrades to their team, as opposed to free agency. They used their first three picks in April on defense to select DE Jerry Hughes, who will fortify their pass rush, LB Pat Angerer (a solid all-around playmaker) and CB Kevin Thomas, who will add depth to their secondary. It’ll take time before these youngsters have an impact, but the future is bright for Indy’s defense.

So how do we use all of this info?

According to the numbers, San Diego is part of the four top DTBCs, so look for the Chargers in the 14th or 15th round and try to pair them with New England, Miami and Chicago, in that order. Anthony likes Chicago and Miami a bit more than New England, but the Pats were DT10 last year and not much has changed. I think they have less of a downside than the Bears or Dolphins do. A SD/NYG combo is projected to score about 10-13 fewer points over the course of a season, but the Giants should be vastly improved, so those should be two quality fantasy defenses to target.

For what it’s worth, SD/NE is also FBG’s top combination, though SD/CHI and SD/MIA are not in their Top 20.

Here’s a list of each of the eight teams as well as those weeks where they are projected to score 8.0+ points:

SD: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, 14, 15

NYG: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 13, 15

NO: 2, 6, 7, 14 (Dodds is not high on the Saints this year.)

CIN: 4, 5, 11, 15

MIA: 1, 3, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16

CHI: 1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16

NE: 3, 9, 12, 13, 16

IND: 2, 3, 5, 6, 14, 16

From a pure numbers standpoint, here are the 19-best combinations of these eight teams: SD/NE*, SD/CHI*, SD/MIA*, CHI/CIN*, CHI/IND, SD/IND*, CHI/NE, NYG/IND, CIN/NE*, MIA/IND*, CIN/NYG, NYG/MIA, SD/NYG, CIN/MIA*, NO/NYG, CHI/MIA, NO/CHI, NYG/NE and NO/MIA*. (Note: Asterisks indicate combos that are projected to score 30+ points in Weeks 14-16 and 20+ points in Weeks 15-16.)

The nice thing about DTBC is that there are always fallback options if part of your top combo is drafted earlier than expected. These eight teams form 19 combinations projected to post DT3-type numbers or better, so use those 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th round picks to build depth at RB or WR (or to build a QBBC) and start putting together your DTBC in the 14th round or later.

Here are our official DT rankings, by tier:

1. Jets

2. Ravens

3. Steelers

4. Vikings

5. Packers

6. Eagles

7. 49ers

8. Cowboys

9. Chargers

10. Giants

11. Saints

12. Bengals

13. Patriots

14. Dolphins

15. Bears

16. Colts

17. Titans

18. Broncos

19. Panthers

20. Cardinals

21. Redskins

22. Bills

23. Bucs

24. Falcons

25. Texans

26. Browns

27. Seahawks

28. Raiders

29. Lions

30. Jaguars

31. Chiefs

32. Rams