WorldTouring in North America, Chapter 2

The WorldTour’s three most recent one-day winners: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, and now, Robert Gesink. One or two years ago, this set of winners might have seemed totally predictable, but in 2013? It’s as if all of these guys who have been flying under the radar decided to reenter the scene in grand style at the same time. Belkin has had a great week, with Bauke Mollema stealing a stage from the power sprinters at the Vuelta, and Robert Gesink outsprinting Peter Sagan himself in Quebec. As closely as the two are tied together, and as often as they share common riders in their leaderboards, GP Quebec is an important foreshadower for GP Montreal.

That race came down to a very reduced sprint with some marquee names, guys we expected to be right there, like Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, and Rui Costa. Things pretty much went as expected, right up to the point where Robert Gesink (with Arthut Vichot not far behind) passed all those pre-race favorites for the victory. Obviously Gesink is a major talent (he won Montreal in 2010 and was 2nd at Quebec in 2012), but 1. his Palmares have been so lacking lately, and 2. his career resume hasn’t really shown any evidence of a high caliber sprinting ability: with a kilometer to go and Tom Jelte Slagter also with the lead group, I wouldn’t have even picked Gesink to be the highest placed rider from his own team, let alone in the whole race. But while Sagan and Van Avermaet seemed just too exhausted to keep up on the ascent to the line, Gesink powered ahead and took a commanding win. With a career that primarily features results in climber’s races, Gesink seemed like a better pick (albeit an outside one) to get involved in Montreal; if this is the kind of form he’s got right now, and if he’s suddenly realized that he has a heck of a sprint within him, he goes from a worthy-of-a-mention-as-a-past-winner pick to one of the favorites for the second of the Canadian WorldTour dates.

Like its sister race, the Grand Prix Cycliste Montreal has a profile that provides great opportunities for successful attacks on the final lap. Unlike its sister race, Montreal’s big climbs come earlier in the circuit (Côte Camilien-Houde, 1.8 km at 8%, and Côte de la Polytechnque, 0.78 km at 6&), and they’re followed by several kms of gentle descent, and the finish in Montreal, while uphill, is only a few hundreds meters at a few percent grade, rather than a long upward drag: in other words, the race favors attackers who can go from much further out, and it also is friendlier than Quebec was to any sprinters who beat the odds and manage to stay up front. Last year, Lars Petter Nordhaug (then of Team Sky, now of Belkin) made a move from several kilometers out. Rui Costa in 2011 and Robert Gesink in the inaugural edition in 2011 also made moves from several kilometers out.

Gesink’s sprint is what surprised everyone on Friday; we’ve always known he could climb and put in a sustained effort. It’s those skills that won him this race in 2010, and now that we know he’s got quite a kick, he’s got a great shot again here. But Sagan will be out to improve on his placing from Quebec, as will Greg Van Avermaet, Rui Costa, and up-and-comer Arthur Vichot, all of whom finished with the lead group not very far behind Gesink in Quebec. Costa won this thing two years ago and he’s my favorite rider to launch a successful long attack, but he’s also got the kick to outsprint a reduced group. FDJ’s Vichot has had a fine year, runner-up yesterday and French national champion not long ago; he was also in the mix in the finale at Quebec last year and like Costa, he’s got a varied skillset and could either make an early jump or hang with a small group. I like his chances. Sagan and Van Avermaet might find it harder to come across with the lead bunch or to launch a big attack early, as the higher altitude hills in Montreal are likely to break up the race on the final laps, but if they do, the finish suits them more than it did in Quebec. I’ll throw out some familiar names of real fastmen who will also appreciate the finish if they can just make it there at the head of the race: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, Giacomo Nizzolo, Matti Breschel, Matt Goss, and Luka Mezgec are the biggest ones for me. The way Degenkolb has been going, I think it’s a real possibility he is in the final group chasing down the final break, and Breschel was, of course, in the top 10 in Quebec on Friday.

Should the truer sprinters all be dropped, I’d imagine the danger men in the pack pursuing the last breakers will include: Tom-Jelte Slagter of Belkin, Fabian Wegmann of Garmin-Sharp, Jan Bakelants and Tony Gallopin of Radioshack, Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Jurgen Roelandts of Lotto Belisol, Bjorn Leukemans of Vacansoleil, Francesco Gavazzi, Simone Ponzi, and Borut Bozic of Astana, and Francisco Ventoso of Movistar.

But since this is a race with a pretty serious incline in the circuit that will tire out everyone in the field and will surely launch some bids for glory, perhaps the most important question will be: who launches the marquee attack as the race nears its finish? If it’s not one of the riders mentioned above, last year’s winner Lars Petter Nordhaug seems like a great place to start. Recent results have been lacking, though, so the top alternative choices include Pierrick Fedrigo (2nd behind Costa in 2011), Ryder Hesjedal (3rd in 2010), Niki Terpstra (who was off the front until the end on Friday, finishing 6th), Alexander Kolobnev, Simon Geschke, Enrico Gasparotto, Sylvain Chavanel, Simon Spilak, and Christophe Riblon and Cadel Evans, who led the chasers over the line behind Sagan at GP Quebec. OGE’s stable of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, Sebastian Langeveld, and Cameron Meyer and Euskaltel’s squad of climbers, like the Izagirre brothers, are also great bets to animate the race from a distance. Evans and Hesjedal seem the most motivated of the Grand Tour stars here, but any one of Froome, Contador, Porte, Schleck, Talansky and van Garderen might decide to go for a long one as well.

However it goes down, long distance attack or late catch and pass by a bunch, I think the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is going to end with many of the same names from Friday towards the front, riders who combine a strong kick with an aggressive style and a whole lot of endurance.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Jelte-Slagter, John Degenkolb, Arthur Vichot, Matti Breschel, Jurgen Roelandts, Niki Terpstra

-Dane Cash

Photo by O. Taillon.