There are good, fact-based reasons to think that Russia may hold the cards to whether President Trump is successfully impeached.

I understand your skepticism. But it was not so long ago that many were speculating about Vladimir Putin blackmailing Trump. We kind of put that to bed with the Mueller investigation. But when it comes to impeachment and the critical question of Trump's conduct towards Ukraine, the Russia angle has a lot more credibility.

First, we need a little context. Let's go back to February 2014 and the leaking of a phone call between then-head of the State Department's European affairs, Victoria Nuland, and then-U.S. Ambassador to Kyiv. In that call, Nuland was recorded saying "F--k the EU." Who got the audio? The Russians. Who leaked it? The Russians.

The Russians leaked that call because it was far too tempting an opportunity to draw a division between Brussels and Washington. Still, the intelligence operation targeting Nuland's call is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Russian intelligence and Ukraine. At least since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, U.S. diplomatic, military, and intelligence activities there have been one of Russia's top intelligence collection priorities.

Whereas the Russians seek a weak Ukrainian government that is subjugated to Putin's whims and unable to adequately defend its territory, the U.S. has sought a strong, pro-western Ukrainian government that can resist Russian aggression. To understand American strategy, the Russians have an interest in spying on American officials who have anything to do with Ukraine policy.

That leads us to the impeachment issue.

Whatever one thinks of the current state of the impeachment proceedings — whether Trump is guilty or innocent or neither — it is now established that top U.S. officials on Ukraine have been using non-existent operational security measures as they talk with one another. Rudy Giuliani is the real gem here. But let's start with the repeated text messages and calls between the top American diplomat in Kyiv, William Taylor, and U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland.

The first point to note is that if you're serving in those positions and using a cell phone — even one with some security — at least one of the Russian Federal Security Service, Foreign Intelligence Service, Main Intelligence Directorate, or Special Communications Service stations in Kyiv and Brussels is probably going to be hearing or reading what you say. And yes, this includes your text messages on encrypted apps. And although Congress has copies of at least some of Taylor's and Sondland's text messages, they do not have audio recordings of the calls. That means it's effectively Taylor's word against Sondland's as to the nature of Trump's comments to the latter.

But the Russians likely do have at least some recordings of those calls.

Again, Taylor and Sondland inexplicably decided to use cell phones for highly sensitive communications on U.S. policy outside of secure facilities. The vulnerability to signal interception is the whole reason that the facilities exist and come with 174-page design and operation guidance notes. But according to Taylor, we also now have reason to suspect that Trump may have had phone calls with Sondland in which he directed Sondland to push the Ukrainians to investigate the Bidens.

Takeaway: The Russians probably know more than we do about whether those calls occurred and what was said on them.

Now, on to the gem of Rudy Giuliani.

The key here is that Giuliani appears to have the most operationally unsecured cell phone habits imaginable. He gives his number out to numerous journalists and seems happy to speak directly on matters of consequence. And with Giuliani serving as Trump's lead on Ukraine, any phone calls between Trump and Giuliani would be some of the most highly targeted in the entire Russian intelligence structure. Although the Russians would struggle to intercept audio at Trump's end of a Giuliani call, they could likely use Giuliani as the access point to those calls.

What have the two men discussed? A quid pro quo conspiracy? Or an effort to address Ukrainian corruption and interference in the U.S. election?

On this matter, as on the other Ukraine matters, the Russians likely know a lot more than we do.