Homeowners in some of Winnipeg's poorest neighbourhoods could be hardest-hit by this spring's Winnipeg School Division property tax increase — to the tune of 68.5% in increases since 2011.

The WSD is set to increase school taxes by 3.6% this year, after hikes of 6.8% and 7.8% in the last two years, though the increase has yet to be put to a vote.

That adds up to an 19.3% increase for the average homeowner.

But very few Winnipeg homes will face precisely that increase, because school taxes are indexed to assessed property value, which has been going up at a higher rate in traditionally low-income catchments of the division — like Weston, the West End, the North End, and central Winnipeg — as opposed to North River Heights and Wolseley.

"The lower-income neighbourhoods are possibly playing catch-up," trustee Mike Babinksy explained.

Homes that appreciate more than 14.71% will face increases higher than 3.6%.

In the 2012 re-assessment, homes in the inner city appreciated an average 19% while homes in River Heights appreciated 13%, according to city figures.

"The assessments are due again this year. The talk behind closed doors is the same will occur again, where the majority of the assessments that will go up, will be again in the lower-income neighbourhoods," Babinsky said. "The higher-income neighbourhoods will not get as much of an increase in their assessments."

So a home in Weston that rises in price from $143,800 to $171,130 — the WSD's "average home" figure for 2014 — would have a 7.5% increase in school taxes payable. Or, according to WSD's own figures, 68.5% since 2011.

A home in River Heights assessed at $240,000 that increases to $271,200 (13%) will see school taxes increase by 2%.

The increase is to pay for an $8.9-million shortfall in the WSD's budget this year, in large part due to a 4% raise in salaries, Babinksy said.

Lorne Weiss, of the Let's Pay Fair coalition, says the province thinks it's easier for trustees to go to taxpayers and ask for an increase.

"Those people are the least able to pay it," Weiss said, adding that the assessment increases that are disproportionately high for lower-income neighbourhoods are "paper increases only."

"They don't have that money, they can't sell off 1/8 of their house to pay their additional taxes, whether it's school taxes or property taxes," he said.

Weiss suggested fewer school divisions as a way to cut costs for school divisions instead.

From 2007-12, yearly increases in education spending from the province totalled $34 million. From 2012-15, it's $5 million.

"Those were good years," Babinksy said. "People started doing extra things, hiring extra teachers, getting a science lab assistant. And then all of a sudden, it stopped. It didn't even slow down, it just stopped," Babinksy said.

Now, he says, the province is telling the WSD to "be creative."

The father of six says that might mean the province has to stop talking about ideas like smaller class sizes — which would require new buildings — and all-day kindergarten, which could cost the division $50 million.

Babinksy also notes that the $700 education tax rebate doesn't affect all Winnipeg families. Homeowners who rent out their houses aren't eligible, and could pass the relative tax increase on to their tenants.

"You've seen the rents climbing over the past few years," he said. "It doesn't matter if you're renting properties or selling groceries or driving a taxi — if taxes are passed on you to you, you pass them on to the consumer."

tessa.vanderhart@sunmedia.ca

Twitter: @tessavanderhart