NHL Mock Expansion Draft: (November) Protection Lists, Alternate Protection Lists, Explanations, Rules, Las Vegas Roster

Las Vegas plans to conduct a monthly NHL mock expansion draft to prepare themselves for next June. We here at Puck Prose are looking to do the same thing with detailed analysis that should have us looking at some of the same players that George McPhee and company are as well.

To break it all down for you, we’ve included a list of available and automatically exempt players. We’ve also included three protection lists. 1) our main list that we’re using to select our Las Vegas roster 2) the first alternative option 3) another alternative option that could be considered. All have explanations as to the thought process behind each selection.

Truth be told, we can target and identify the vast majority of protected players. Between no-movement clauses and star players, it’s only a spot or two on each team that is actually debatable. Now, there’s still lots of time for player movement in 2016-17 leading up to the deadline, and rumors of a trade period before protection lists are due. To play it safe, for the time being, we’ve chosen to omit the likes of Jacob Trouba, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Ben Bishop, among a few others. If there’s uncertainty surrounding an inevitable trade, there’s no point in worrying about it until we see how it affects the new club.

Rules for Expansion

All 30 NHL teams have two options to protect players

a) Seven forwards, three defensemen, one goaltender

b) Eight skaters and one goaltender

– All players that own a no-movement clause in their contract must be protected, unless they agree to waive it.

– *All first and second-year professionals are automatically exempt from the expansion draft.

*There’s been some gray area to this one so we’d like to help clarify with the best explanation we could find. Before shutting down, General Fanager asked this very question to the NHL, with the following response:

via Sin Bin, “A Player aged 18 or 19 earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more NHL games in a given NHL season.” “A player aged 20 or older (based on age on December 31 of calendar year in which the season starts) earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more Professional Games under a standard player contract in a given League Year.”

General Fanager also wanted answers for European skaters and how the NHL decides to calculate professional years overseas. Here’s the response:

via Sin Bin, “Professional seasons are expected to only count while a player is under an NHL SPC. A player like Artemi Panarin for instance, who played several “professional seasons” in the KHL prior to signing with the Chicago Blackhawks for the 2015-16 season, is expected to still be exempt from the Expansion Draft. This is because his seasons in the KHL were played before he signed an NHL SPC, so his first “professional season” for purposes of expansion is considered the 2015-16 season.”

There’s still a bit of uncertainty surrounding the availability of certain players. Using the rules above, we’ve determined a few players to either be automatically exempt or available, differing from Cap Friendly’s interpretation for their expansion tool.

Player Exposure Requirements

All clubs must provide a minimum one player that falls under each of the following categories:

1) one defenseman who is under contract for 2017-18 and played in 40 games in 2016-17, or 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined.

2) two forwards under contract for 2017-18 and played in 40 games in 2016-17, or 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined.

3) one goalie under contract for 2017-18 or RFA

Truth be told, all 30 teams will naturally have players that meet the requirements. There won’t be much planning or thought put into it when most bottom six forwards or bottom pair defenseman go unprotected.

– Players with a career-ending injury, or who have missed the previous 60 games due to injury will be automatically exempt from the expansion draft. This is notable for individuals such as Ryane Clowe (NJ) or David Clarkson (CLB) who some feared would take up a spot due to no-move clauses.

Las Vegas Selection Rules

– Las Vegas must select one player from each of the 30 existing teams.

– They must select at least 14 forwards, nine defense, and three goalies.

– Las Vegas must spend between 60-100 percent of the prior season’s upper cap limit ($43.8-$73.0 million)

– *20 of those 30 selections must be under contract for 2017-18 (only 10 UFAs or RFAs are allowed for that two-day negotiating period)

Honestly, this one doesn’t make a lot of sense. Experts/analysts insist that RFAs don’t count against the 20 under contract, but that’s absurd. If Las Vegas selects an RFA, they own that players rights until he’s eligible for free agency, so technically speaking, the player is pretty much under contract. Even if he’s unhappy and wants to flee to the KHL, Vegas still owns him if he ever decides to come back – not as though an RFA is going anywhere.

By the way, that two-day negotiating period set forth during the time Las Vegas is selecting is to ensure they can get all 30 players under contract for 2017-18. Without it, there’d be too much uncertainty with selections. This way if a free agent refuses to join the expansion team, at least they have time to change their selection to someone under contract or another FA that will agree to terms.

All 30 NHL teams must submit their protection list by 5pm (et) on Saturday, June 17, 2017 at the very latest. Las Vegas will then have until June 20, 2017 to submit their expansion draft picks. The announcement is expected to be made the following day on June 21st.