Let me make a prediction too. We will see who gets it closer.



I predict that China will continue to industrialize and grow rapidly. As its per capita GDP approaches that of the established industrialized countries, its growth rate will slow. Its per capita GDP will eventually stabilize to the extent that it grows at the same rate as today's rich countries. However, the level at which it stabilizes will be a bit higher than other industrialized countries.



Why do I think this? History and common sense. World economic history since the industrial revolution has consisted largely of a series of industrialization events. First England, then Germany and France, then the U.S., Canada, other countries with large populations with European roots, then Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam. China and, now, India are just the latest to start the process. And in all of them, the pattern is as I described. They grow rapidly at first, and level out somewhere close to countries that industrialized earlier. Another evident pattern is that industrialization tends to spread first to countries with similar cultures to earlier industrializers, presumably because ideas and people can move more easily. The reason I think that China will eventually become a bit richer than other industrialized countries is that its size gives it an advantage, just as size gives the U.S. an advantage among other industrialized countries today.



I also predict that China will weather any short-term economic crises well. Unlike any other country, it seems to have leaders who understand Keynesian economics and are able to use it effectively, as seen in 2008-9.