Stephen McNeil's Liberals were reduced to a narrow majority government in Tuesday's provincial election in Nova Scotia as their vote dipped throughout the province, giving both Jamie Baillie's Progressive Conservatives and Gary Burrill's New Democrats a boost in seats.

But while the polls underestimated the strength of the PC vote, the Liberals were able to hold on to enough seats in Halifax and the mainland to avoid dropping into minority territory.

At 27 seats, the Liberals ended up just north of the 26 seats needed for a majority government, dropping seven seats from where they stood at dissolution at the beginning of the four-week election campaign. The PCs gained seven seats and the NDP — despite dropping in the province-wide popular vote — picked up two.

One seat was vacant at dissolution while another was represented by an independent MLA.

Losses in Dartmouth, Cape Breton

The most significant seat changes occurred in two parts of the province.

In the Halifax area, the Liberals dropped five seats, three going to the PCs and two to the NDP.

On Cape Breton Island, the Liberals fell three seats as their popular vote plummeted by about 16 points. The PCs were the biggest beneficiaries, gaining two seats and roughly 18 points in the popular vote.

Though the Liberals' support fell in most parts of the province, the party still managed to hold on to many of its seats in some parts of the Halifax region as well as on the mainland outside of the HRM. They also picked up a seat from the NDP on the South Shore.

PCs beat, NDP under-perform poll expectations

Public opinion polls suggested the Liberals were the favourites to win the most seats, but were unclear whether the party would be able to obtain a majority government or not. Though the polls overall were close to the mark, a small underestimation in the PC vote cut the margin enough to keep the outcome in doubt until after midnight.

The three final polls of the campaign — by Corporate Research Associates, Forum Research and Mainstreet Research — pegged Liberal support at between 38 and 41 per cent, very close to the final tally of 39.6 per cent.

But the PCs were estimated at between 31 and 35 per cent, putting all three pollsters below the Tories' results of 35.7 per cent. The New Democrats were also overstated at between 22 and 24 per cent, rather than their 21.4 per cent score.

The errors were relatively small, particularly for Mainstreet and Forum, which were in the field up to the last two days of the campaign. But the Liberal leads of eight to 10 points found by Mainstreet and CRA, respectively, would have delivered the Liberals a more comfortable majority than what occurred.

Liberals hold off strategic voters?

At the regional level, the polls also painted a relatively accurate picture of the race, with the Liberals ahead in metro Halifax and the PCs favoured on Cape Breton Island, with the PCs and Liberals showing strength in different parts of the mainland.

The slight province-wide overestimation of the NDP and underestimation of the PCs, however, raises the question of whether Baillie's request for New Democratic voters' strategic support to defeat the Liberals was heard in some NDP quarters.

If so, it might have helped the Progressive Conservatives gain a few extra seats, whittling the Liberals down to the slimmest of majorities. But by holding off both the PCs and the NDP in just enough ridings, particularly in Halifax and the mainland, McNeil is the first Nova Scotia premier to secure the re-election of a majority government since John Buchanan in 1988.