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The sad truth is, we can be absolutely awful at making decisions that affect our long-term happiness. Recent work by psychologists has charted a set of predictable cognitive errors that lead us to mistakes like eating too much junk food, or saving too little for retirement. These quirks lead us to make similarly predictable errors when deciding where to live, how to live, how to move, and even how to build our cities.

By most measures, a “No” result in the plebiscite will make the average person poorer, sicker, less free, more frustrated and, yes, less happy

The Vancouver transit vote is likely to prove psychologists correct again. By most measures, a “No” result in the plebiscite will make the average person poorer, sicker, less free, more frustrated and, yes, less happy in the long run. Yet this is exactly where the polls show the city is headed.

If that’s depressing, at the very least the plebiscite makes for a terrific case study in the psychology of city-building. So let’s drill into it.

What are the actual costs and benefits associated with the mayors’ plan?

The cost: half a percent added to the provincial sales tax. That’s about 3¢ on a beer, or $125/year for the average household.

The benefits?

The plan includes a mind-numbing project list including road improvements, bike lanes, a new bridge over the Fraser River and massive investments in rail and bus transit across the region. However, what really matters to urban happiness is not infrastructure per se, but what’s called the “system effect” on our lives.

System effects are not immediately obvious but they really matter to our health and happiness. For example, studies show a direct correlation between commute times and life satisfaction. System effect: the mayor’s plan will shorten commute times on Vancouver’s most congested roads by 20-30 minutes per day, while transit riders will save up to half an hour. So just about everyone gets more time with family and friends — a key driver of happiness.