Welcome everyone! Aren't we all excited about the new season? Since it's the start of the season (it feels like the first day of school, doesn't it?), I'll give everyone a quick primer about how this works.

I troll the web for various NFL power rankings, load them up into my computer and crunch the numbers. I then make observations based on what the numbers tell me. Don't worry, it's nothing too complicated, and I'll walk you through the various displays, explaining as we go along.

Notable Quotes

Comparing the rosters of the 2013 Raiders and 2008 Lions, I've determined that the former is much, much worse. If the two teams played, I feel like Detroit would win by double digits. Indeed, the 2013 Raiders might just become the first team to go 0-17. There's no way they're going to beat their own bye.

WalterFootball.com

Chargers fans the world over rejoiced upon the ousting of Norv Turner and AJ Smith. That excitement may have been tempered somewhat during this preseason. While there have been marked improvements in the running game, other problems are still prevalent. Make no mistake, this is a rebuilding year.

Reddit

Is there anyone on the planet who knows what to make of the Chargers right now? I checked Angie's List, NFL Media colleagues ... this is a tough team to decipher. Still thinking San Diego will be on par with the Kansas City Chiefs, but King Dunlap's presence at left tackle and a very questionable receiver group make one wish Antonio Gates were five years younger and a half-a-second faster. The easy AFC West keeps San Diego ahead of Tampa and Cleveland.

NFL.com

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Division Avg Ranking NFC West 11.6667 NFC North 14.1389 AFC North 14.5000 NFC South 14.9444 NFC East 15.8611 AFC South 19.2222 AFC West 20.5278 AFC East 21.1389

Observations

It wasn't all that long ago when the NFC West was the laughingstock of the league. Now look at them.

The only thing keeping the AFC West out of the cellar is Denver holding everyone else up, and the futility of the Jets pulling everyone in the East down.

Stock Rising

This table is kind of self-explanatory: it shows which teams have moved up the most this week compared to last week.

Team Preseason Week 1 Average Week 1 Average Difference CLE 14.250 12.611 1.639 CHI 8.000 6.722 1.278 NO 6.833 5.889 0.944 WAS 6.417 5.556 0.861 DET 11.250 10.556 0.694

Observations

Not much movement is to be expected going from Preseason to the Regular Season, unless a team suffers some catastrophic injuries, not much changes.

Stock Falling

Team Preseason Week 1 Average Week 1 Average Difference TB 9.917 11.278 -1.361 SDG 11.917 12.944 -1.027 PIT 7.500 8.222 -0.722 IND 5.583 6.278 -0.695 NYG 5.583 6.222 -0.639

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective 49ers 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1.444 0.056 Seahawks 1 3 6 3 2 3 2 2 1 2.556 0.277 Broncos 4 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 2.667 -0.334 Falcons 2 4 3 4 5 5 4 5 8 4.444 -0.444 Packers 5 7 5 9 4 4 7 4 6 5.667 0.333 Patriots 6 6 4 8 6 8 5 6 3 5.778 0.055 Ravens 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 7 9 7.333 -1.166 Texans 7 8 9 7 7 6 6 8 11 7.667 0.666 Bengals 9 9 7 5 9 9 9 9 15 9.000 -0.833 Redskins 10 13 16 10 11 10 10 13 7 11.111 1.722 Saints 13 16 11 18 10 11 12 10 5 11.778 1.889 Giants 12 15 10 16 12 13 13 11 10 12.444 -1.277 Colts 11 12 13 11 13 14 11 15 13 12.556 -1.389 Bears 14 11 15 12 15 12 14 14 14 13.444 2.556 Cowboys 18 17 14 15 16 15 15 12 21 15.889 -0.722 Vikings 17 10 18 13 21 17 16 19 16 16.333 0.167 Steelers 16 20 12 20 14 16 17 16 17 16.444 -1.444 Rams 15 14 17 17 19 22 18 20 12 17.111 -0.444 Dolphins 20 25 23 14 23 19 22 18 18 20.222 -0.389 Panthers 23 28 19 19 18 18 23 22 19 21.000 0.500 Lions 21 18 28 21 17 20 19 24 22 21.111 1.389 Chiefs 19 19 24 27 20 24 21 17 24 21.667 0.833 Buccaneers 22 21 21 23 24 21 20 23 28 22.556 -2.723 Eagles 25 23 25 26 22 23 26 21 25 24.000 1.000 Browns 28 24 26 24 25 26 28 26 20 25.222 3.278 Cardinals 26 29 20 25 27 27 24 29 23 25.556 0.277 Chargers 24 26 27 22 26 25 27 27 29 25.889 -2.056 Titans 27 22 22 28 28 28 25 28 26 26.000 -1.000 Bills 30 27 29 29 29 30 29 25 27 28.333 1.000 Jets 32 30 30 30 30 29 30 31 30 30.222 -0.555 Jaguars 29 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 31 30.667 0.000 Raiders 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.889 -1.222

Observations:

The Chargers open the season ranked as the 6th-worst team in the league. Ouch.

Continuing last season's trend, 7 of the bottom 10 teams are in the AFC. 8 of the bottom 11 are in the AFC. So really, 72% of the bottom third is made up of AFC teams. And in that bottom 3rd are all three AFC West teams not from Denver.

The 49ers are the closest to a consensus top pick as we can get right now. Denver and Seattle are keeping things close in the battle for second place. The Broncos did drop slightly since the start of preseason, likely thanks to several injuries.

Convenient: the top 12 is evenly split 6-6 between NFC-AFC teams. I really wonder how many rankers purposefully try to keep things even.

Interesting that the Jaguars' ranking didn't move at all, even though the Raiders passed them.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

Subjective Raiders 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.314 -0.933 Jaguars 29 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 31 0.667 -1.128 49ers 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 0.685 0.185 Jets 32 30 30 30 30 29 30 31 30 0.786 -0.914 Broncos 4 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 0.943 0.198 Ravens 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 7 9 1.155 -0.617 Bears 14 11 15 12 15 12 14 14 14 1.343 -2.354 Colts 11 12 13 11 13 14 11 15 13 1.343 0.445 Seahawks 1 3 6 3 2 3 2 2 1 1.423 -0.149 Texans 7 8 9 7 7 6 6 8 11 1.491 0.548 Patriots 6 6 4 8 6 8 5 6 3 1.548 0.204 Bills 30 27 29 29 29 30 29 25 27 1.564 0.458 Falcons 2 4 3 4 5 5 4 5 8 1.571 0.754 Packers 5 7 5 9 4 4 7 4 6 1.633 0.633 Eagles 25 23 25 26 22 23 26 21 25 1.700 0.409 Chargers 24 26 27 22 26 25 27 27 29 1.912 0.568 Giants 12 15 10 16 12 13 13 11 10 1.950 0.737 Buccaneers 22 21 21 23 24 21 20 23 28 2.266 -0.001 Browns 28 24 26 24 25 26 28 26 20 2.299 0.591 Titans 27 22 22 28 28 28 25 28 26 2.357 -1.059 Steelers 16 20 12 20 14 16 17 16 17 2.409 1.118 Cowboys 18 17 14 15 16 15 15 12 21 2.424 -0.310 Redskins 10 13 16 10 11 10 10 13 7 2.424 0.390 Bengals 9 9 7 5 9 9 9 9 15 2.494 1.281 Cardinals 26 29 20 25 27 27 24 29 23 2.753 0.209 Rams 15 14 17 17 19 22 18 20 12 2.923 0.566 Chiefs 19 19 24 27 20 24 21 17 24 3.055 0.993 Vikings 17 10 18 13 21 17 16 19 16 3.055 1.671 Panthers 23 28 19 19 18 18 23 22 19 3.127 0.910 Lions 21 18 28 21 17 20 19 24 22 3.143 0.329 Dolphins 20 25 23 14 23 19 22 18 18 3.190 0.646 Saints 13 16 11 18 10 11 12 10 5 3.521 0.272

Observations:

75% of teams (24 of 32) had their Standard Deviation rise this week. Chances are that's because I have more sources than last week.

As is typical, the teams at the far ends of the spectrum are more consistently ranked. This is inherently the nature of just using raw Standard Deviation. I'll find a way to normalize these numbers.

It is interesting though that the Saints are so inconsistent in their ranking. Rankers have them anywhere from 18th all the way up to 5th. That's quite a swing.

Every year, there are a few rankers who are very high on St. Louis. And every year St. Louis disappoints those rankers.

The Chargers are right in the middle of the pack for consistency, and actually rather consistently-ranked around 26th.

That's it for this week. Next week after games are actually played, we'll bring in the objective rankings sites and really start to compare numbers.

Sources