Is it just another virus or a test for all of society? Andriy Malenkov Follow Mar 19 · 12 min read

1. How it’s all happened and the implications for the world

Currently, almost everyone on the planet is aware of the virus and its economic consequences, as it is all over the news today. Financial markets are in a panic, public places are deserted for fear of infection and most businesses vulnerable to Coronavirus (COVID-19) are shutting down. Moreover, countries such as Italy, Austria, the US, and Israel are already in total shutdown.

However, it could be interesting to know how it all started, as it may shed light on the current situation. As my mathematics professor once told me, if you know the root cause, more than 50% of the problem is already solved. So, bear with me for a moment.

So, what is COVID-19? By the WHO definition, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new virus that has not been previously identified in humans. If you read carefully, this means that it must have been transmitted by something other than humans. Guess what? Animals. According to Hong Kong professor Gabriel Leung the virus crossed over to humans at the so-called ‘wet markets’. These places are all over Asia, even though it is prohibited by law to open them — but where there is demand, there is business. Think for a moment: If there was no demand for drugs, there wouldn’t be any drug dealers, but they exist. So, this raises the question of what you can buy in this market. Surprisingly, almost any animal, whether dead or still alive but waiting to be slaughtered on site for food. It could be any mammal, snakes, or bats that have been trafficked from all over the world. In the picture below, you can see the harsh conditions in which these animals live, and usually, no one cares whether certain animals are allowed to be caged together. For example, Australian cockatoos, European ferrets, and African meerkats never come across each other in the wild and are therefore vulnerable to viruses transmitted among each other.

source: Australia 60 minutes

Just imagine, when those animals are put together, they are undoubtedly under stress. This, in turn, means that their immune system is weak, and when it is weak, a virus is easily transmitted from one animal to another. So, when a human grabs an animal (handling process), namely for slaughter, the virus could easily be transmitted to humans.

Actually, if you were curious, most well-known deadly viruses originated in animals. According to LiveScience, roughly 60 percent of all human diseases and 75 percent of all emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic. Take for example the flu, swine flu, SARS, Blastomycosis, or Plague, which was caused by rodents.

Getting back to COVID-19, experts have concluded that it is a result of the virus crossing to humans from the most trafficked animal in the world, which is called the pangolin. It’s one of the friendliest animals you can find on the planet. Really, it doesn’t matter what specific species the virus came from, but what matters is that we, as humans, learn from the mistakes we have made in the past.

And so, let the storm begin. I call it Mother Nature’s revenge. Imagine: Just six centuries ago, there were 350 mln. people, in the early 20th century there were 1.6 billion people, in 2000 the figure had increased to 6 billion, and as of today, experts estimate a figure over 7 bln. people. So, in just 20 years, the world population has risen by 1 bln.; it is unprecedented. Now, let’s look at the capacity of our natural resources — is there enough to feed us?

It turns out that Earth Overshoot Day, the day when humanity’s demand exceeds the Earth’s natural capacity to regenerate itself, occurred in the early 1970s. This means that for 50 years we have been exploiting natural resources that couldn’t be replenished. So, what does that mean? From my point of view, it means that the Earth wants to protect itself. So, what does it mean for us? Less exploitation of all-natural resources, especially animals, to let the Earth regenerate itself. Because, over 50 last years, we have generated unprecedented levels of pollution, affecting biodiversity, forests, wetlands, water bodies, soil, and air quality.

However, I am certain that we, as the smartest species on the planet, can (and have to) adapt to a new norm. That we can become more aware of the industrial pollution we generate, the plastics we throw out instead of recycling, the animals we kill just for food, etc. If we want to thrive on this planet, let’s learn from our mistakes, educate those around us, and act accordingly. By acting accordingly I mean taking small steps, such as using paper bags while shopping, separating garbage appropriately, reducing meat and fish consumption, buying more recycled products, etc. It all contributes positively to the Earth’s climate, natural habitats, resources, flora, and fauna, etc. Remember simple economic law: Where there is demand, there will be supply. You can change the direction of the demand by making a habit that corresponds to the overall sustainability of the planet. Because next time it won’t be a warning — it will be an even more catastrophic disaster. Our planet is designed in such a way that it tries to regulate itself.

But let’s not dive too deep into it; this is for another article.

2. Coronavirus consequences and its severity

By now, everyone should understand the severity of the virus and its effect on humankind, since it is all over the news. But let’s make it clear with numbers. According to Professor Gabriel Leung, who led the fight against the SARS virus, 60% of the world population could become infected with COVID-19 and up to 45 mln. people could die from it — and he is using a very moderate and conservative estimate of a 1% fatality rate. If it were 3–4%, like in the early days of the outbreak in China and Italy, you could do the math yourself very quickly. As you see, the total deaths could exceed 100 mln. mark, which is why it is called a pandemic. If you look at the picture below, you can see that 131 countries are already pervaded by the virus. Officially, on the 15th of March, 157k people had already been infected, counting only registered infections, and at least 5,762 people have died. Let’s make some estimates of how many cases we have currently.

I’ll take a conservative approach to estimate the number of cases. It’s already been 3 weeks since we started hearing devastating news about the spreading of the virus in Europe, which actually means it’s been in the EU since much earlier. So, let’s take 3 weeks as an estimate. We also know that the incubation period is 17 days and that the doubling period, meaning the period of time when the number of infections doubles, is 6.2 days. So, after the incubation period, the number of infections totals 996k, and over 3 weeks, the number has grown to a devastating 1,5 mln. people. I’ve prepared a simple model, where you can plug in the data and play with it. Therefore, in just 3 weeks, the number of infections has risen astronomically to 1.5 mln. people. I suppose there is enough evidence for governments to be really worried. It’s for the same reason that Germany is lining up $600 billion in virus aid as the EU backs financial stimulus. A German state bank is ready to lend €550 billion to companies that are vulnerable to the virus to ensure they survive the pandemic and protect their workers from its impact. It’s for the same reason that the US confirmed a Coronavirus rescue package including $1 bln. in food aid, free testing, and aid for those who are out of work. If you would like to see what the future looks like if we don’t contain the virus and find a cure, watch the movie “Contagion”, where, similarly, it all starts in China with a virus being passed to a human. Hopefully, things won’t unfold like in the movie.

3. What lessons can countries that haven’t been affected massively learn from countries that have and what measures should they implement

First of all, most EU countries have already implemented a combination of measures to curb COVID-19 based on hard lessons learned from Italy and China. Will these measures be enough to stop the virus from spreading to countries that haven’t been hit yet? Let’s look at the measures taken so far.

Basically, there are 3 main categories of measures that are being implemented:

● Social distancing and self-quarantine (cancellation of mass gatherings, remote work, etc.)

● Hygiene (washing hands for more than 20 seconds)

● Travel bans

These would definitely help flatten the curve, as statisticians say, meaning the reduction of the number of cases registered per day (see the graph below). However, will all countries be able to implement these measures? The question is quite simple to answer. Only those who can afford to withstand the crisis, who have enough liquidity to pour into the system, will be able to help all affected by the virus and confront the further spreading of the virus. Here I am talking about billions of euros, as the government needs to step up to help small to medium-sized companies vulnerable to the virus, covering tourism, restaurant, hotel, and recreational businesses, as well as measures directed at curbing the spread. The latter measures include infection control, staffing, equipment for labs, etc.

Today, policymakers need to make the very tough decision of whether to let the economy work at least partly (as in Australia, for example) or to shut down the whole economy (as in Spain, Israel, and Austria). The problem with the tradeoff is that if you let the economy sink, shutting it down completely, multiple businesses will go bankrupt, people will lose their jobs and some even could die. On the other hand, if you let the economy work, even only partially, you endanger the people, as it is very likely that the virus will spread, infecting multiple people.

To make a rational choice, let’s have a look at the numbers first. According to the WHO, around 80% of patients experience mild illness, approximately 14% experience severe disease, and 5% are usually in critical conditions. WHO officials report that the biggest number of deaths and those who were in critical conditions occur with people over the age of 60. Therefore, if you have a country the size of Greece with a population of 10.7 mln. people, where 20% are over 65, and you let the economy work, at least partially, meaning cross-country borders are opened (although people are encouraged to stay at home), the death toll would be in a range from 500 to 1,2 mln. people.

On the contrary, if you shut down the economy completely, close the land borders with neighboring countries, stop flights and sea arrivals and enact all social distancing measures, then the Greek economy could contract to 5–8% of its original GDP, given the 20% share of industries vulnerable to the virus. Millions of people would lose their jobs and hunger would cover the map. According to experts, poor nutrition is responsible for 50% of all deaths in children under the age of 5, and those who don’t die suffer physically and mentally later on because their bodies don’t get enough of the basic nutrients for an organism to function properly and grow. Approximately 100 thousand children may not seem like much, but if we take into account the consequences on future generations, for those who survived with weaker health and undeveloped mental power, then it could become much more catastrophic, as there is nothing as bad as having an unhealthy undeveloped nation.

However, the good news is that there is a golden middle at which the trade-off is not necessary. Countries with stronger economies could unite to help those countries who can’t afford to lock down in the quest to combat the virus by providing any necessary help, whether it is monetary or humanitarian or both. Otherwise, developing countries may suffer the most making a decision based on a deadly trade-off.

4. The true meaning of the virus

Pandemics have afflicted civilizations throughout human history, with the earliest recorded outbreak happening in 430 BC. Most of the pandemics had a significant impact on society, killing from several percentages to half of the population, forcing humankind to ponder on the sacred meaning of life. Let’s look at some historic pandemics in detail.

The Justian plague that was named after Justinian I, emperor of the Byzantine Empire in the 6th century, is believed to have killed 30–50 mln. people, which was half of the population at that time. After the outbreak, trade almost ceased to exist and the empire was weakened, which allowed invaders to reconquer the region. It is believed that the Justian plague ended the era of the Roman Empire. Afterward, the dark ages began, where poverty and hunger reigned in Europe.

Caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, the Black Death devastated Europe in the 1300s. The estimated number of deaths ranged from 75 to 200 mln. people according to different experts, which at that time accounted for 30 to 50% of the total population. As seen in the picture, the virus got its name from the black spots on the skin where the cells had died. It took several centuries for the world’s population to recover from its tragic losses. However, after the end of the virus, when so many had people died, the European economy saw a tremendous boost, raising the standard of living to new heights.

It seems counterintuitive, but thanks to decreased labor and food supply, wages were three times higher than they had been before the virus. But is it the rule for viruses to cause humankind to live better? Let’s take a look at another two viruses.

Smallpox claimed the lives of approximately 20 million when the Europeans first arrived in the continents of America in 1492. The pandemic helped them to colonize and conquer the new territory, forever altering the history of America. This also helped the Spanish Empire to prosper due to the mining of gold and silver there. John Maynard Keynes, the well-renowned economist, said in 1930: „Price revolution was a crucial turning point in the formation of modern capitalism”. If smallpox didn’t exist or didn’t wipe out so many people, the history of America would be totally different.

On the contrary, the consequences of the Spanish flu didn’t spur any economic prosperity, or at least it is hard to prove, as the virus broke out at the time when World War I was coming to an end. However, most experts do believe that subsequent research helped to prevent or lessen similar outbreaks of flu-viruses later on.

What’s common across the viruses we just described is that they had a significant effect on the lives of people and altered the course of humankind. I do believe that this is a ‘reboot’ moment when humankind needs to start again slowly; it’s a kind of self-regulation by nature. However, if you look at the relatively modern viruses, fewer and fewer people die thanks to the advancement of healthcare. So, it means that we need to do a ‘reboot’ ourselves before the real storm happens. From history, we know that millions of lives were lost during the viral outbreaks, and, from my point of view, it is a signal from nature to warn humankind that its survival is predicated upon its ability to take care of its surroundings.

41 thousand species are on the Red List, 16 thousand species are endangered — biodiversity is in real danger. All the problems we face today, such as pollution, climate change, endangered species, etc. are the result of the greedy exploitation of biodiversity. It’s what happens when we act in an unsustainable manner, take too much from the planet, and don’t allow it to regenerate itself. Examples include catching too many fish and then throwing out what is not sold, producing plastics in tonnes, and cutting down too many trees without planting any.

Everything mentioned above forces nature to protect itself from greedy human exploitation. It reminds me of the immune system’s natural response to any bacteria or virus that enters the organism. In this context, nature treats humans as a virus that needs to be eradicated.

Therefore, if we want to live in harmony with nature, we need to take care of it. Governments should take bold actions to ensure our existence on this planet. However, everyone can substantially contribute to making this happen sooner because our actions drive the demand for producing goods. If we buy more recyclable products, buy less leather products, use car-sharing with friends instead of using the car for ourselves, cut down on fish and meat consumption as well as paper consumption, use more renewable energy and allow the planet to start regenerating itself, we will have a bright future ahead. Economists might notice that the world GDP growth wouldn’t increase at a high rate, but it would ensure our longevity on the Earth.

So, can we take the time given to us by social distancing to pause for a minute or two and think about why we are here and what is left after we pass away?

If we answer those questions, the next viral wave probably won’t come in the next 50–70 years, but if we, as a society, fail to answer, the next Armageddon could happen soon. I call this virus a ‘test for a society’… The decisions we make today will ultimately affect the trajectory of our survival.