In post-amalgamation Toronto, an incumbent mayor has never faced a serious challenge for a second-term. Both Mel Lastman and David Miller were re-elected in landslides. But if polls are to be believed, Mayor Rob Ford has a tough fight ahead of him against three would-be challengers in 2014.

That means that while voters might be months away from caring about Toronto’s next election, the pre-season campaign has already begun.

Mayor Ford has spent much of the last year making stump speeches. That continued Friday — the third anniversary of his victory — when the mayor appeared on Newstalk1010’s Jerry Agar Show. After rattling off a list of achievements, Ford debuted a new slogan.

“We’re on the right path. And it’s only gonna get better with time and I just can’t wait for Oct. 27 (2014). We’ll get Ford more years,” he said.

Besides the mayor, only former city councillor David Soknacki has declared his candidacy. But both Karen Stintz and Olivia Chow are serious enough to have assembled skeleton campaign teams. Radio host John Tory’s name is still in the mix, as is city councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong’s.

Below is a look at the current state of the race.

TTC CHAIR KAREN STINTZ

Pros: As TTC chair, Stintz has profile. Her anticipated campaign team is packed with A-listers and she took a principled stand against Ford on subways.

Cons: She appeared to flip-flop on that subway stand earlier this month, when Stintz voted for a Scarborough subway rather than an LRT. The funding scenario might be different, but it’s a confusing nuance for voters.

In news that will resonate in political circles, chief Liberal strategist Don Guy confirms he will be helping Toronto’s TTC chair become the next mayor. Guy — the man behind Dalton McGuinty’s three consecutive wins — will play a senior advisory role, while Liberal Dave Gene holds the official title of campaign manager. Conservatives Beverley Hammond and Paul Brown have also signed on.

Stintz’s people will position her as a fiscally conservative alternative to the mayor, who can build a coalition of left and right councillors.

“She’s been able to bring people together on council and the city and get people moving forward without the distractions. She’s someone we can respect,” Brown said.

MP OLIVIA CHOW

Pros: Chow is the front-runner, with off-the-charts likability numbers, name recognition and political experience, including time as a city councillor before her current gig as MP Trinity-Spadina.

Cons: Many people view Ford’s victory as a rejection of the Miller administration’s policies. Chow, a devoted progressive, could be viewed as a return to the old ways.

Chow’s camp includes hired gun John Laschinger, the architect of David Miller’s 2003 victory, seasoned NDP operative Joe Cressy, and spin doctor Warren Kinsella — the so-called “Prince of Darkness” of Canadian politics. The presence of Kinsella, a proud attack dog who specializes in dirty tricks, is especially telling.

“If she runs and she’ll have me, absolutely, I’ll be there. . . the city after having gone through what it’s gone through the last four years needs somebody who is a healer quite frankly and somebody who can work with all sides of a divide,” said Kinsella.

If Chow decides to run, her edge would be her chances with Scarborough’s large Chinese community. (A progressive candidate can’t solely rely on downtown Toronto. Scarborough and North York house more than half of the city’s population.)

Timing-wise, Cressy suggested Chow won’t announce if she’s running until well into 2014.

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RADIO HOST JOHN Tory

Pro: Tory has profile, the capacity to raise money and he’s liked by both Liberals and Conservatives.

Cons: He’s indecisive.

Tory is supposed to announce a final decision early next year, but no matter what he decides, there will undoubtedly be speculation about his potential candidacy right up until September 12, 2014 — the last day to file a nomination. If Tory does get in, Liberal war room veteran Bob Richardson and Conservative John Capobianco have pledged their support.

TORONTO MAYOR ROB FORD

The big question for 2014 is who will run the mayor’s re-election bid. The man who devised Ford’s previous Gravy Train campaign, Nick Kouvalis, says it won’t be him.

“I’m looking forward to helping candidates in certain (councillor) races. But it looks like I’ll be staying out of the mayor’s race,” he said.

Previously, sources close to the Ford brothers say Kouvalis agreed to be involved if the mayor went to rehab and lost some weight. Kouvalis wouldn’t say why he won’t be joining Team Ford, but he shared his vision for the campaign he would have run.

“It’s you can’t go back. You can’t go back to high business taxes. You can’t go back to doing more bike lanes and street cars. You can’t go back to 50,000-something city employees,” Kouvalis said. “That’s what he’s got to do. To remind people what it would be like with Olivia.”

FORMER COUNCILLOR DAVID SOKNACKI

Pros: Soknacki spent more than a decade representing Scarborough at the municipal level, before and after the 1998 amalgamation. He’s well liked on council and knows how the city works.

Cons: Few outside of the city hall bubble know who he is.

Up-and-coming Conservative political consultant Jim Ross has been tapped to run Soknacki’s campaign. Like Stintz and Tory, Soknaki would play up his fiscal credentials. Like Chow, Soknaki will run as an outsider.

COUNCILLOR DENZIL MINNAN-WONG

Pros: He’s a council veteran with fiscally conservative bona fides.

Cons: People don’t know him and those who do will associate him with the Ford administration.

Minnan-Wong is a member of the mayor’s executive committee and an ally on council. He will try to convince voters he is the best to continue Ford’s policies without the distractions. Jaime Watt — a high-profile Conservative operative who supported George Smitherman in 2010 — is rumoured to be among his supporters. Reached earlier this week, Watt said he has not yet decided whom he’ll be supporting in 2014.