The beauty of EPL lies in its competitiveness or so the marketing spiel goes. EPL has always been promoted as the most competitive league in the world, the league where anyone can defeat anyone on a given day. At the same time, we fantasy managers always consider the promoted clubs as the patsies and seldom, if ever, think twice before captaining our assets against the promoted clubs. We decided to check the data to check who is in the right and what lies in store for the promoted clubs this season.

The most important factor for a promoted club is the final league position since for majority of the promoted clubs survival is the sole objective of the season. Despite survival being the objective, majority of promoted clubs do get relegated back at the end of season but very rarely do we have seasons in which all 3 promoted clubs are in danger of relegation. In fact, only once all 3 promoted clubs were relegated back to the lower division, and that was back in 1997-98. While there have been 3 occasions when all 3 promoted clubs survived, the most recent being 2017-18.

Coming back to this season, we decided to compare performance of promoted clubs for the last season and current season to predict how the rest of the campaign would go for the promoted clubs.

What does the league table say?

In both the seasons, only 1 of the promoted clubs has been in the top half of the table while one has been in relegation zone. However, one important difference which is not being reflected in the above table is the relative higher competitiveness of the league this season. While Sheffield United and Wolves both are in 9th position after 9 games, Wolves already were 10 points clear off the bottom 3 while Sheffield United are only 3 points above the drop zone. At the same time, despite having 3 more points Wolves were 6 points off top 4 while the gap for Sheffield United is 5. In the relegation zone, Norwich are only 5 points off the top half while both Cardiff and Fulham were 9 points adrift of the top half. Owing to the fact that this season almost all of the teams in the league are bunched together, Sheffield despite currently being in the top half of the table are not out of the danger and Norwich despite being in the relegation zone are not a lost cause yet.

Analyzing the playing style

Last season all 3 of the promoted clubs had distinct and distinguishing playing style. Wolves were the counter attacking team. They would invite pressure on them and then counter attack with devastating precision while being solid at the back. Cardiff was the team which would yield possession, play long balls and try to capitalize on any opportunity, primarily from set pieces they got. Lastly, Fulham played with a cavalier attitude, they tried to continue playing in the style which had helped them get into the Premier League in the first place. This season things are not that cut and dried. While Norwich seem to be a Fulham tribute act and Sheffield might look like a better version of Cardiff, the comparisons don’t actually hold true once we check the underlying stats. Aston Villa don’t seem to have any discernible style. One thing which is true is that all 3 of the promoted clubs are willing to take the fight to the big boys of the league, Norwich and Sheffield have already defeated one of the top 6 at their home, while Aston Villa gave an almighty fright to Spurs and Arsenal at White Hart Lane and Emirates respectively.

Deep Dive with Data

Let’s check the underlying stats to see what lies in store for the promoted clubs this season.

Attacking Stats

Last season only Wolves had xG of greater than 10 while Fulham despite having a reputation for attacking play had xG of only 9.88 (16th in the league). This season Sheffield United, the highest ranked team, has the lowest xG of 10.07 while Aston Villa have the 5th highest xG. In terms of chance creation, only Cardiff was in the bottom half last season while this season only Aston Villa are in the top half. Cardiff was the 12th best team in terms of chance creation while Sheffield United are the 18th team this season and Norwich 14th. So why are Norwich and Sheffield creating lesser number of chances than even Cardiff? The answer might lie in the number of shots and the quality of shots being taken by these teams. Norwich and Sheffield are both taking fewer number of shots than Cardiff. In fact Sheffield are the 18th in the league for shots taken while Norwich are 15th.

Similarities between Cardiff & Sheffield and Fulham & Norwich again shine through in the attacking stats. Cardiff were dead last in terms of possession while Sheffield are 18th, both have scored the same number of total goals and same number of goals from set plays, even their shots on target are almost the same. Sheffield are doing better with their shots on target and have the highest shooting percentage of all the 6 promoted clubs. The reason Sheffield are much higher up in the table is tactical astuteness of Chris Wilder and greater defensive solidarity. For Fulham and Norwich all the underlying stats apart from chance creation are eerily similar. The only difference is chance creation where Norwich are creating chances at better rate and hence have a better xG.

Aston Villa has great underlying attacking stats, they are in the top half for most of them apart from possession. They have scored the fifth highest number of goals, have the 5th highest xG and are 4th in terms of chance creation. One thing we must keep in mind that Aston Villa’s numbers have been massaged by their encounter with Norwich who were really abject that day and there numbers might not sustain at this level throughout the season.

Defensive Stats

Fun Fact: After 9 matches Sheffield United have joint highest number of clean sheet in the league and have conceded the joint least number of goals while Norwich have conceded the highest number of goals and kept the least number of clean sheet. So are Sheffield United really that good and Norwich so bad?

xGC numbers paint a different picture, Sheffield are massively over performing (they have the highest negative delta in the league) while Norwich have conceded 5 more goals than their xGC would suggest (2nd highest positive delta). None of the promoted clubs are pressing from the front, Aston Villa have the lowest PPDA among the promoted clubs (11th in the league).

The reason Sheffield have conceded so few goals is that they are allowing opposition teams to take few shots, they are 7th for total number of shots allowed and 5th for shots allowed on target. This coupled with higher save percentage by their goalkeeper has resulted has resulted in a tight defense. They have conceded highest number of goals from errors so there is still room for improvement.

Though Aston Villa have conceded only 13 goals while keeping 2 clean sheets, they have conceded the highest number of shots. However, for shots conceded on target they are 10th in the league and have conceded only 3 more than Sheffield. This is oddly reminiscent of Heaton’s last team Burnley. Burnley usually allow their opponents to take high number of shots relying on their defenders to block most of the shots and the goalkeeper to keep out those which eventually are on target. Currently the save percentage for Heaton is not that great but if he is able to get back to his Burnley days Villa’s defense might get better.

The problem with Norwich is that their commitment to attacking play couple with debilitating injuries have left them with a very vulnerable defense. Unlike Sheffield and Aston Villa they don’t seem to have any discernible defensive plan. They are not pressing from the front, are allowing high number of shots (19th), high number of shots on target (20th), and have conceded 2nd highest number of big chances. Even the save percentage of their goalkeeper is the lowest among all the promoted clubs. Unless Norwich change their style of play or have a clear plan to stop the opposition, it’s highly unlikely that the league’s leakiest defense would improve.

What does it all mean for FPL?

Don’t captain your attacking asset against Sheffield United it is unlikely that anyone would have a haul against them

Monitor attacking assets of Aston Villa , the underlying stats do look good and they might be the differential you need to climb up the ranks

Norwich seem to be on similar path to Fulham and we all remember how that ended

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