The candidates, in many ways, represent a cross section of the political and economic elite that has risen in Afghanistan in the past dozen years with the support of the United States. For all the strivers who have ushered Afghanistan into the modern world since the Taliban were ousted — building Web sites, campaigning for women’s rights, starting television networks — the election seems destined to remind everyone that this is still a country governed by conservative old men, many with checkered pasts.

The early leader is Zalmay Rassoul, a polished former foreign minister who would be welcome in any Western capital but lacks a significant constituency in Afghanistan. That may not matter, though, if the conventional wisdom here is accurate: Mr. Rassoul is believed to be the favorite of Mr. Karzai, who has solidified his hold on Afghanistan’s electoral machinery in hopes of seeing a pliable successor elected.

The leading opposition candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, placed second to Mr. Karzai in the 2009 election, which saw tens of thousands of fraudulent votes thrown out. He, too, is polished and is seen as relatively clean in a country where corruption and criminality are so pervasive among the political class that Western diplomats acknowledge that no one with any power is totally clean.

His running mates are a different story. If elected, his first vice president would be Mohammad Khan, a Pashtun official of the Hezb-i-Islami Party, whose militant wing is still fielding insurgents against the government. His second vice president would be Mohammad Mohaqiq, a leader of the Hazara ethnic group who stands accused of war crimes.