Frida Ghitis, a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a frequent opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to the Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. Follow her on Twitter @fridaghitis . The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author. Read more opinion on CNN.

(CNN) President Donald Trump gave a speech on Wednesday that combined attenuated versions of his standard repertoire: boasts, threats and digs against former President Barack Obama. Even before he said "Good morning," he declared, that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon under his watch. Then he added, "the American people should be extremely grateful and happy."

Perhaps he meant grateful to him, even as he noted that no Americans were killed when Iran fired missiles into a US base in Iraq.

But it's too soon for Trump to declare victory in this episode, much less on his overall Iran strategy. This is far from over, and there's a long way to go before the US killing of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and its aftermath, turn into a true victory for the United States -- before it saves lives, as Trump has argued it did ; helps stabilize the Middle East; and allows American troops to leave the region without creating a vacuum that Iran and Russia will happily fill.

Americans, Iraqis, Iranians and millions across the Middle East are relieved that a new all-out war did not start. But neither Trump nor Iran wanted another war, so what we have seen in the past few hours has been choreography, a tactical dance.

Still, this is not over. We have observed Iran for many years and we know its pattern. Iran plays a two-track game. On the conventional diplomatic, even military track it can look like a normal country. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is the voice of reasonable , conciliatory Iran. He spoke to Western journalists and appeared to display a striking devotion to international law, playing his predictable role. Iran's conventional military response may be over, but that's only a part of Iran's arsenal.

There's little, nay, there's no doubt that Iran will further retaliate for Soleimani's killing. The retaliation may come from the Quds Force he ran or, more likely, from one of the terrorist groups or militias he helped build across the Middle East, the entities that turned Iran into such a destructive, destabilizing power.

The chief of Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, has openly vowed to avenge Soleimani's death. And even if cooler heads prevail in parts of the Iranian regime, the revenge fire inside Quds is burning hot.

Trump should make it clear to Iran that attacks by any of those groups against the US or its allies will be treated as an attack by Iran.

The most important repercussions from the Soleimani killing will need to take shape over the coming months. I'm referring to the strategic and political changes on the ground in the Middle East. There, the Trump administration needs to work overtime to repair the damage inflicted by the President's irresponsible rhetoric in the aftermath of the strike.

US policy aims at preventing Iran from extending its power throughout the region. Soleimani was a key player on the armed side of that contest. But much of what Trump has said during this crisis has been enormously helpful to Tehran.

Trump's outrageous threat to bomb Iran's cultural sites -- later vaguely reversed after his aides explained to him that would be a war crime -- must have felt like a punch in the gut to pro-American Iranians. Iranians who oppose the regime must have already felt deeply disappointed to see the Soleimani killing bring an abrupt end to massive anti-regime protests in Iran's streets, now replaced with anti-American chants.

Get our free weekly newsletter Sign up for CNN Opinion's new newsletter. Join us on Twitter and Facebook

The United States needs to repair the damage; reassure Iranians that Washington sees the regime -- not the Iranian people -- as its foe.

Then there's America's position in Iraq.

There's nothing Tehran (and Moscow) would like more than to see American forces leave Iraq. Trump also wants to pull out US troops, but a hasty withdrawal would be disastrous.

When the Iraqi parliament took a nonbinding vote Monday to expel US forces, Trump's reaction was bizarre and harmful, threatening sanctions on Iraq.

Again, the US must be careful to cultivate its ties to the Iraqi population. In Iraq, as well, the Soleimani killing put a sudden stop to anti-Iran protests.

One of America's greatest strengths is its soft power, the appeal of its ideals. As much as Trump boasts about building up the military, he has a dangerous track record of sending a message to the world that those ideals are now in the past and no longer play any role in American foreign policy.

Indeed, the immediate aftermath of the Soleimani killing was an embarrassment of chaotic mixed messages and disorganization . Trump is right that Americans should be grateful this didn't quickly escalate, because by all appearances the administration was ill-prepared.

There were the conflicting explanations of why Soleimani was killed, the mystery of the letter -- which a top US general said was released by mistake and poorly worded -- announcing withdrawal from Iraq, and the President's harmful tweets.

Then there was the evidence of the harm done by Trump's penchant for lying, and the inevitable loss of credibility that he has created for the US government within the international community and in the eyes of many Americans.

To a large degree, this was a political speech for a domestic audience; that's why he went to such lengths to again criticize the Obama administration.

As I wrote just after Soleimani's killing, removing the vile Quds leader from the scene is, in isolation, a positive for the region. But the longer-range repercussions are still a work in progress.

Trump will be able to claim a legitimate victory, a true triumph, only if the action and its aftermath result in a less threatening Iran, a more stable Middle East. For the moment, none of that has happened.