by Aaron Schatz

There's a bit of a shakeup on top of the Football Outsiders ratings this week, as the fifth-place and first-place teams switch places. Baltimore is now number one, narrowly edging past San Francisco. (I know I mentioned on this week's B.S. Report that San Francisco would be number one, but opponent adjustments changed after the Jets' victory on Monday Night Football, and that moved Baltimore slightly ahead.). Green Bay, the team that is unanimously considered the best in the league according to conventional wisdom, is third. (The Packers are also third in the pro-football-reference Simple Ratings System, so we're not entirely alone on this one.) Then come the three teams from the AFC East, but in a surprising order: the Jets first, then Buffalo and finally New England, the opposite of the order in the standings.

Perhaps the most notable thing about this week's DVOA ratings is how condensed they are. 2011 has been a season with a lot of competitive balance. I don't know if it is related to the lockout or not, but it is certainly evident in the record number of big early-season comebacks. In the 20-year history of DVOA, this is the first time that there has been no team over 30% after Week 6. Last year was like this too, which is a piece of evidence to suggest that this has nothing to do with the lockout. Last year, only Pittsburgh was above 30% after six weeks. But the year before, in 2009, six different teams were above 30% at this point.

The Ravens and 49ers are narrowly ahead of the Packers primarily due to schedule strength. You'll notice below that the Packers are number one in non-adjusted VOA, but slip behind two other teams once the opponent adjustments are applied. As great as the Packers offense has been, it hasn't been that much better than the rest of the league. In fact, it's not even on top in DVOA, New England is. However, the Ravens defense so far is lapping the field. The Ravens' defensive DVOA is nearly twice that of the second-place Jets.

As I noted on today's Numbers Never Lie, I do think the Packers are likely to be better than the Ravens going forward, and I would say they are likely to be better than the 49ers as well. I have more confidence in the Packers defense improving than I do in the Ravens or 49ers offenses improving. And of course, when it comes to making the playoffs I have a lot more confidence in the two NFC teams, because they have less competition. The playoff odds report gives San Francisco a 99 percent chance to make the postseason. We also get our first two teams to hit a 0.0 percent chance to make the playoffs -- at least, after rounding -- in Miami and St. Louis.

The Ravens moved ahead of the 49ers between Monday and Tuesday because of changes in their opponent adjustments for playing the Jets after the Jets had a strong win over the Dolphins. That gets us to the Jets' overall ranking of fourth, which is pretty unexpected. I assume nobody is going to fight about having the Jets ranked second on defense and third on special teams. We know those two units are strong, as they have been for years. On the other hand, you're probably wondering how the Jets' offense manages to rank 21st when they seem to go three-and-out roughly forty times a game and should maybe be ranked, I don't know, 34th, behind the rest of the NFL teams and Oklahoma State.

I have to admit to being a little confused as well. This is where I will come clean and talk about something I didn't want to talk about because I'm not sure I can explain it: The very strange DVOA result of last week's Jets-Patriots game. It certainly looked to all of us like the Patriots were in charge the whole game, right? Yet somehow, DVOA came out saying that the Jets had played better than the Patriots on a play-by-play basis. Using current opponent adjustments, the Jets get 33.9% DVOA for the game while the Patriots get only 3.3% DVOA. Yes, that seems as crazy to me as it does to you. The Jets got 29.7% DVOA on offense even though they went three-and-out seven different times and were penalized for playing a bad Patriots defense. On defense, the Jets let the Patriots into the red zone six times but only allowed three touchdowns, and of course Tom Brady threw the interception that bounced off Aaron Hernandez's hands. The offense didn't have time to get on the field and capitalize on that field position, but DVOA still sees that as a great play from the Jets defense.

Still, as I noted earlier, the big issue is not the Jets defense; it's the Jets offense. The weird results aren't just coming against the Patriots. Last night they went three-and-out five times, and four-and-out another two times, and were once again penalized for playing a bad defense, and once again got a positive offensive DVOA (7.2%). Why do we have them at a reasonable 21st in offense, which is enough to lift the entire team's rating up to fourth overall? The typical reasons why conventional stats underrate teams are not in play here. The Jets don't have lousy fumble luck on offense, and they haven't played a hard schedule of opposing defenses.

It looks like the biggest issue here is the red zone. The Jets have been really, really good in the red zone. On the first eighty yards of the field, the Jets have -7.6% DVOA, which ranks 28th in the NFL. But they have a 31.9% DVOA in the red zone, which ranks third in the NFL -- and remember, plays in the red zone are worth 25 percent more than other plays. The Jets may be going three-and-out a lot, but when they do have an extended drive, they tend to extend it into the end zone.

There's a good chance that the Jets' performance in the red zone will regress a bit towards the mean. You just don't see teams that are this much better in the red zone compared to their performance overall. This is one of the places where I'm stuck with my decision to make DVOA a stat that balances being predictive with being descriptive. Making red zone plays 25 percent more important than other plays really improves the correlation between DVOA and wins, but that expected red-zone regression makes it a little less predictive when you have a team like the Jets getting so much of its offensive value from red zone plays. This surprising Jets rating also has me wondering about the feasibility of creating an NFL rating that combines DVOA with drive-based statistics, much like we combine our play-by-play and drive stats for college into "F-plus." Unfortunately, that's a project for an offseason, so for now we'll have to live with the Jets in fourth place. Just know that for now, I'm not buying the idea that the Jets are really the fourth-best team in the NFL.

However, are the Jets the best team with a .500 or losing record? I'll buy that, and you should too.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks of 2011, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Opponent adjustments are currently at 60 percent strength and will steadily grow stronger until Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 19 percent of DAVE for teams with six games and 27 percent of DAVE for teams with five games. Because DAVE uses weighted DVOA rather than total DVOA, Week 1-2 results are slightly discounted.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 BAL 27.8% 5 24.2% 1 4-1 0.1% 20 -29.5% 1 -1.8% 24 2 SF 27.5% 2 21.1% 5 5-1 2.9% 18 -11.2% 3 13.4% 1 3 GB 25.4% 3 22.6% 3 6-0 35.8% 2 9.0% 19 -1.4% 21 4 NYJ 25.2% 6 23.5% 2 3-3 -1.4% 21 -15.3% 2 11.3% 3 5 BUF 23.9% 1 18.5% 6 4-2 31.3% 3 8.1% 17 0.7% 13 6 NE 21.1% 4 22.3% 4 5-1 37.4% 1 17.2% 27 0.8% 12 7 NYG 18.9% 12 16.8% 8 4-2 18.8% 7 -1.6% 8 -1.6% 23 8 TEN 17.0% 8 6.7% 14 3-2 19.1% 6 -0.7% 11 -2.7% 26 9 OAK 13.6% 9 8.4% 11 4-2 21.6% 5 10.6% 21 2.6% 6 10 PIT 13.0% 10 16.9% 7 4-2 11.8% 9 -1.3% 9 -0.1% 17 11 CIN 12.3% 15 7.8% 12 4-2 3.5% 17 -7.1% 6 1.7% 8 12 ATL 12.0% 18 11.5% 9 3-3 10.7% 12 -0.8% 10 0.4% 15 13 NO 10.4% 7 10.1% 10 4-2 22.6% 4 13.6% 24 1.4% 9 14 DET 9.5% 13 6.8% 13 5-1 3.5% 16 -8.9% 4 -2.9% 27 15 DAL 8.0% 17 4.0% 17 2-3 3.9% 15 -7.1% 7 -3.0% 28 16 HOU 5.5% 14 5.5% 16 3-3 9.7% 13 6.4% 15 2.2% 7 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK TOTAL

DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 PHI 1.8% 21 5.9% 15 2-4 11.6% 10 8.8% 18 -1.0% 19 18 WAS 1.6% 16 -1.8% 22 3-2 -6.2% 27 -7.2% 5 0.6% 14 19 TB 0.2% 20 -1.2% 20 4-2 11.5% 11 16.3% 25 5.0% 4 20 MIN -1.5% 11 -1.7% 21 1-5 2.5% 19 3.4% 14 -0.6% 18 21 CHI -2.4% 25 -0.4% 19 3-3 -3.7% 25 10.7% 22 12.0% 2 22 SD -7.5% 19 0.8% 18 4-1 6.5% 14 10.9% 23 -3.1% 29 23 DEN -8.9% 22 -10.4% 24 1-4 -3.2% 24 9.2% 20 3.6% 5 24 CLE -10.4% 23 -8.0% 23 2-3 -4.6% 26 7.1% 16 1.3% 10 25 SEA -15.2% 27 -16.6% 25 2-3 -8.7% 29 3.3% 13 -3.1% 30 26 CAR -18.7% 24 -17.7% 27 1-5 12.9% 8 22.8% 32 -8.8% 32 27 KC -22.8% 28 -19.1% 28 2-3 -6.5% 28 16.5% 26 0.3% 16 28 MIA -26.8% 26 -17.2% 26 0-5 -2.4% 23 22.3% 31 -2.1% 25 29 IND -26.9% 29 -24.0% 30 0-6 -1.5% 22 17.7% 28 -7.7% 31 30 JAC -27.6% 31 -22.0% 29 1-5 -26.8% 32 -0.4% 12 -1.1% 20 31 ARI -29.0% 30 -25.8% 31 1-4 -11.5% 30 18.6% 29 1.1% 11 32 STL -36.9% 32 -30.6% 32 0-5 -15.8% 31 19.7% 30 -1.5% 22

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).