Partners or rivals? UKIP, the right-wing populist outfit that gives David Cameron sleepless nights, has come a long way in a short space of time. Only four years ago, at the last general election, it possessed no electoral or campaign base to speak of. Its status as a joke party was cemented when its then-leader, Lord Pearson, admitted in a television interview that he had not troubled to read its 14-page manifesto. Now, by contrast, the party has 370 councillors, a string of promising strongholds along England’s east coast, some 30 full-time staff and (on a good day) the semblance of discipline. As of this morning, it is also on the verge of winning its first parliamentary election. This is thanks to Douglas Carswell, a maverick Conservative MP who has announced that he is defecting to UKIP and triggering a by-election in his Essex seat, in which he will run as the party’s candidate. He has a good chance of winning. The constituency, Clacton, was never a natural Tory stronghold. It was a marginal when Mr Carswell first won it (on slightly different boundaries, as Harwich) from Labour in 2005. And it is poor; containing East Jaywick, which came first of the 32,482 wards in England and Wales on the government’s Index of Multiple Deprivation in 2013. But as MP he has built it into a loyal political fief, winning a 12,068 majority in 2010. His new UKIP garb probably suits the town better than his old Conservative one: in recent years support for the former has surged in similar blue-collar, post-industrial towns along the Norfolk, Essex and Kent littoral (see your correspondent’s reports here and here). “Revolt on the Right”, an academic study of this rise, rated Clacton’s demographics the most UKIP-friendly of any seat. The party’s campaign infrastructure is stronger in Essex than anywhere else in the country, adds James Moyies, its leader in nearby Southend, who declares the defection “absolutely fantastic” for the party locally. Unsurprisingly, then, the bookies have already named Mr Carswell odds-on favourite in the upcoming by-election, which will probably take place in September.

For all the excitement (and, among Tory ranks, horror) that has greeted Mr Carswell’s announcement, this is not the first time a Conservative MP has defected to the party. Bob Spink, MP for another Essex seat, jumped ship in 2008. But he did not trigger a by-election. And Mr Carswell is a big, serious figure. A cerebral libertarian, he has campaigned against quantitative easing and low interest rates, proposed sweeping political reforms and authored a well-reviewed book on e-democracy (the contents of which he discusses in the video below, part of an essay on democracy that we published in February 2014). He wants to leave the EU, but out of a desire to radically overhaul the British state, not out of narrow-minded nationalism.

The news, of course, is excellent for Mr Carswell’s new comrades. At a press conference alongside Nigel Farage, his new party leader, he declared Mr Cameron “just not serious about the change [to Britain’s relationship with the EU] we need”. So the announcement is a propaganda coup and a blow to Tory morale. But Mr Carswell’s move also helps UKIP address a series of challenges: developing a presence in Westminster, honing an ability to run effective parliamentary campaigns and showing that it contains serious thinkers. The party claims that it is in discussion with other disgruntled Conservatives thinking of following in his footsteps. A win in Clacton may prove the push that they need.

But the news also poses two big questions for UKIP. First, is there room for Mr Carswell in his new party? Until now one of UKIP’s defining features has been Mr Farage’s dominance (only slightly diluted by the recent creation of a “front bench” team of spokesmen). If the Clacton by-election goes as planned, the party will immediately become bicephalic and a fascinating political partnership-rivalry will be born. Mr Carswell is an independent-minded spirit, not a team player (“It’s nice to have a leader with whom I agree,” he told the press conference, to which Mr Farage tellingly deadpanned: “It’s early days.”) Will he hold his tongue and submit to Mr Farage’s will? And if not, will a power-struggle ensue? This would not be without precedent; the party’s recent history is littered with psychodramas and feuds.



Second, will Mr Carswell upset UKIP’s ideological balance? Like all political outfits, UKIP is a coalition. It is a partnership of right-wing shire Tories and white, ageing working-class voters disillusioned with Labour. The instincts of these two groups differ in various areas, but they are united by a preference for authoritarian and nationalist policies. Yet a smaller “third UKIP” also exists: Thatcherite and libertarian, comprising much of the party’s youth and some of its younger parliamentary candidates. Until now, this lot have not been prominent (or, in the case of the quietly libertarian Mr Farage, frank) enough to melt the socially conservative glue holding the first and second UKIPs together. But Mr Carswell is nothing if not outspokenly small-statist. Unlike most of his new party, his instincts on immigration are liberal, he cares deeply about civil liberties and wants to disestablish the church. It is not impossible to imagine his election as UKIP’s first fully-fledged MP (and the way that he votes in parliament) hastening the confrontation between these different wings of the party.

To be sure, Mr Carswell’s defection is a boon for UKIP. But maybe, just maybe, it will eventually prove calamitous.