Mr Boon: 'This referendum has the potential to be a polling Waterloo'

Most recent 'poll of polls' has No support ahead at 51 per cent to 49 per cent

The boss of one of the polling firms trying to predict the outcome of the independence referendum today admitted they might have it completely wrong.

In recent weeks the polls have narrowed to suggest the result is on a knife edge, with the latest poll of polls giving the Better Together campaign a 51 per cent to 49 per cent lead.

But Martin Boon, director of ICM, has admitted he fears the unique background to the vote means polling data may have been corrupted, exposing the industry to its ‘Waterloo’.

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The latest Poll of Polls, compiled by political expert Professor John Curtice at WhatScotlandThinks.Com, puts the No campaign narrowly ahead on 51 per cent

ICM director Martin Boon has warned that the polls showing the Yes and No campaigns neck and neck could be completely wrong

It is feared the surge of support for the Yes campaign amongst people who don’t normally vote, and No supporters afraid of being accused of lacking patriotism misleading pollsters, are leading to a skewed picture being painted.

Mr Boon admits he believes the actual result could see a much more comfortable victory for either side, and drew comparison with the 1992 general election, when the polls had Neil Kinnock set for a victory only for John Major to win.

He told BBC Radio 4: ‘This referendum has the potential to be a polling Waterloo, the biggest since 1992 when the polls got it wrong.

‘I think and hope that the best that we in the industry can hope for is that we dodge a bullet, but it’s entirely possible the bullets do start spraying our way.

‘We are dependent on a pot of people which is defined, but we don’t know how big it is and in my view it won’t be big enough.

The most recent ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph gives the Yes campaign a lead

Martin Boon,director of ICM, who has warned Scottish independence referendum polls could be totally inaccurate

‘In that lies a real danger for the accuracy of the polls.’

The latest raft of opinion polls all point to differing results, but suggest the result is too close to call.

A Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times put No on 50.6 per cent and Yes 49.4 per cent.

A poll by Survation gave the No campaign an eight-point lead on 54 per cent to 46 per cent while an Opinium survey in The Observer put No on 53 per cent and Yes 47 per cent.

However, a surprise ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph put the Yes campaign eight points ahead, on 54 per cent, although it was based on a survey size of only 700 people.

More than 4.2million people have registered to vote in the historic referendum which will decide the fate of the 307-year-old Union. Experts predict the turnout could be as high as 85 per cent.

Better Together leader Alistair Darling insisted internal campaign research put them comfortably ahead, but he suggested half a million people in Scotland have not decided how to vote with opinion polls suggesting the race is neck and neck.

WHY YES FIGURES MIGHT BE WRONG A surge in Yes voters may not have been picked up by the polls because a lot of the support has come from people who do not normally vote, and so are not likely to have been polled. Of the six companies that are polling, four use online panels, one does face-to-face canvassing and another does phone interviews. Figures showing Yes support might be underestimated because young voters are less likely to sit down to answer online questions, or stop in the street and speak to canvassers. They are also less likely to have their own phone line and therefore are missed by polling using that method. Advertisement