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Question 6: If President Trump were to make an endorsement in the Republican U.S . Senate primary, would you be more or less likely to support the candidate he endorses?

More Likely 56% Less Likely 19% No Difference 25%

Question 7: President Trump recently described Senator Jeff Flake as "weak on borders, crime, and a non-factor in the Senate." Given that President Trump wants to unseat Senator Flake in the Republican primary, would you be more or less likely to support Senator Flake's re-election?

More Likely 21% Less Likely 60% No Difference 19%

Question 8: To ensure that our surve y responses are most accurate, are you male or female?

Female 51% Male 49%

Question 9: And for demographic purposes, what is your age?

18-34 2% 35-54 20% 55-64 26% 65 or older 52%

SUMMARY

JMC Analytics and Polling independently conducted this poll for the Arizona U.S. Senate Republican primary to be held next year. Nex

t year’s Senate race already has

the potential to be competitive, given that (1) Senator Flake won his first term in 2012 with a 49-46% plurality

(running behind Mitt Romney’s 54%

), and (2)

in last year’s

Presidential election, Arizona moved perceptibly towards the Democrats, a s Donald Trump only carried the state 49-45% (In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state 5 4-45%). But while the general election will b e a challenge (Arizona is one of two Republican held Senate seats that Democrats could put in play next November), Senator Flake has a more immediate problem: he faces a substantial primary challenge as well. On the primary ballot test, Kelli Ward has a 47 -21% lead over Flake (with wide leads over the incumbent among virtually every demographically significant group), despite Flake

’s

having nearly two decades of Congressional experience. And Flake also faces underwater approval ratings (his unfavorability rating is 67-22%, while Ward

’

s approval is 43-23% positive) nearly identical to the overwhelming negative opinion Arizona Republican primary voters have of him:

by a 66-22% margin, they would prefer someone else over the incumbent in the primary

. President Trump is still fairly popular (76-21% approval among Republican likely primary voters), and that popularity also translates to the value of a Trump endorsement in this contest: res pondents by a 56-19% margin would be more likely to support President Trump

’

s endorsed candidate. That sentiment is especially potent when President Trump makes an incumbent (in this case, Senator Flake) the subject of his ire, such as his August 17 tweet dismissing Sen. Flake as

“

toxic

”

and a

“

non-factor

”

in the U.S. Senate. JMC tested the impact of that message, and on the basis of that tweet, respondents would by a 60-21% margin be

less likely

to support Flake (those more likely to support Flake already support him 76-5% on the ballot test, while

those less likely to support Flake support Ward 68-5%