Initial Barrel Bomb Technology

The main objective of the Syrian barrel bomb program is to provide cheap and lethal damage on urban areas in Syria. When these bombs were initially developed they were deployed from HIP helicopters from low altitudes. These low altitude deployments would ensure the barrel bombs could maintain pin point accuracy and damage specific targets that the Syrian government wanted to kill. However, over time the Syrian rebels acquired Man Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) that deterred these low launched bombings and drove the Syrian government to drop these bombs from altitudes near 7000ft. A description of a Syrian helicopter that has been shot down from a rebel who fired a MANPADS missile is shown in figure 1.





Figure 1 Syrian Helicopter Shot Down With Rebel Fired MANPADS

These rebel MANPADS attacks have forced the Syrian barrel bomb helicopters to release their bombs from high altitudes. This increased altitude reduces the accuracy of these bombs and now their impact points are random. Currently, barrel bomb are not attacking point targets, but rather they are attacking large urban areas killing humans and damaging infrastructure such as building.





Over the last year there have been many false claims made by Syrian civilians as well as the press that barrel bombs have been deployed, when actually they were Russian conventional bombs. These false claims have given barrel bombs false praise by claiming their damage potential is greater than what it really is. Figure 2 shows photos of a HIP-8 helicopter dropping a barrel bomb relative to a Russian Hind Helicopter dropping a conventional Russian bomb.





Figure 2 Comparison Of HIP Mi-8 Barrel Bomb And Hind Conventional Bomb

As stated, there have been many false claims in Syria that damage to Syrian cities has been caused by barrel bombs when the damage was actually caused by Russian conventional bombs that have significantly higher reliability than these DIY barrel bombs.





Figure 3 Barrel Bombs Detonate Early From Negative Errors

Figure 4 Description of Barrel Bombs on Syrian Helicopter Prior to Deployment

Figure 5 Comparison Of BB Detonating or Duding Based On Positive Time Delay

Figure 6 Comparison between barrel bombs impacts on soft and hard surfaces

Figure 7 Large Metallic Metal Components Added In Barrel Bomb Explosive Mixture

Figure 8 Barrel Bomb Probability of Incapacitation and Probability Equations

Figure 9 Newer barrel bombs designed with DIY impact fuzes

Figure 10 Syrian barrel bomb with small fins attached to the middle

Figure 11 Large Barrel Bomb Deployment Showing Initial tumbling Of Weapon

Figure 12 Syrian barrel bomb using small warhead as a booster

Figure 13 Syrian Military Using Helicopter Fuel Auxiliary Fuel Tank As Barrel Bomb

Figure 14 Potential Syrian derived weapon, which supports unexplainable explosions

The single shot probability of success is 25% and given a 90% probability requirement it would take 88 fuse wick barrel bombs which appears to be an unrealistic scenario where Russian bombs would be mixed in. We know that the Syrians have developed or increased their capability by adding impact fuses to account for the timing errors of the fuse wicks. Let's assume that the barrel bombs contain impact fuses but do not contain fins that are able to stabilize the bombs for a successful impact on the fuse. The single-shot probability of these barrel bombs is 12%. This means that the Syrian military would have to drop nearly 187 barrel bombs to obtain 11 explosions. This large number of barrel bombs also does not appear realistic, as the Syrian military uses no or very small fins in the middle of the bomb.





Figure 15 Aleppo Bomb Impact Points From December 2013 Attacks

The next calculation will consider the most advanced barrel bombs it is believed the Syrian military has. The single-shot bomb probability of success is 37.5%, which means it would require five bombs to achieve one successful explosion. The total number of bombs that the Syrian military would have to drop to obtain 11 explosions is 55. It is unknown how many helicopters were used in these bombings, but if the capacity of a HIP helicopter is considered, then each helicopter could only hold around 3-4 bombs of 1000lb size. A single video was found of a very large barrel bomb that appeared on the internet December 21, 2013. It is believed this barrel bomb could have been used in the Aleppo attacks. Figure 16 shows this barrel bomb and it specifically shows that this bomb has an explosive yield of 1500-2000lbs.





Figure 16 Large barrel bombs filmed and posted online on Dec 21, 2013

However, if the military has mastered the fuel air explosive dispersal technique, then this bomb would have a yield of 6 tonne TNT equivalent weight. The damage on the ground strongly supports that very large bombs were used to generate the amount of damage that is seen in many of the videos. Another key observation of the barrel bomb is the fins are on the back of the bomb, and not in the middle. It appears that this bomb concept has a good chance to be aligned and stable to allow for a lethal fuse impact. A closer look at the barrel bomb from the December 21 attack is shown in figure 17.





Figure 17 Close up of the barrel bomb from video

Summary

It is unknown how many bombs in Aleppo were DIY barrel bombs and how many were Russian conventional bombs. If we estimate that there were three helicopters used in this campaign and each helicopter contained three 2000lb barrel bombs, then based on each helicopter performing two separate missions, an estimate can be made as to whether it's feasible that all the explosions in Aleppo were from barrel bombs. The calculations show that each day, there were 18 barrel bombs dropped with only 3.6 explosions per day. After three days of bombing, the total number of barrel bombs dropped is 54 which correlates with the 55 barrel bombs required that must be deployed to achieve 11 explosions. It appears possible that all the attacks in Aleppo could have been DIY barrel bombs because these attacks occurred over 3-4 days, as it is clearly possible that 55 barrel bombs could have been dropped with their new and enhanced designs over this period of time. The video analysis of the overall damage strongly supports that very large barrel bombs were used.



