

==Background==

===The Outcome of the 2016 Election===

Donald Trump ran and won because he made his supporters believe he was a transformative figure who would enact sweeping changes to national policy once in office. He's not and he won't, and that will ultimately be his downfall, and that of his party. Why? Because Trump is the most unpopular incoming President since they bothered to poll for that. He lost the popular vote by the widest Margin in 140 years (second only to Rutherford Hayes, third if you count John Quincy Adams). He's already facing defections from within the Republican party (Senators Paul, McCain and Graham alone give a majority in the Senate to block any of his more egregious nominees), and the Democrats have enough votes to filibuster basically whatever they want. In short he has no mandate to effect tranformative change, and without that his supporters will be quick to turn on him.



===The Economy in 2017-2018===





==The Senate==

The Democrats have two distinct advantages for the 2018 Senate race, the first being that most of their candidates up for re-election are popular incumbents, and the second being the likelihood of a recession in late 2017.

After sifting through the wreckage of the 2016 Presidential election I think I've got a fair to middling strategy for the Democrats going forward to take back the Senate by 2020 and make genuine first steps towards reforming our electoral system. Allow me to break it down:The US economy will have gone 8 years without a recession by the summer of 2017. The gap between recessions has never exceeded 10 years and that was the gap between the early 90s recession and the Dot Com Crash, which was the longest period of economic expansion in US history. Most gaps last between 3-6 years. I think its fair to say that the recovery from the Great Recession is more comparable to the one that occurred under Reagan which led to the lite, but still painful Early 90s Recession. So we're due for another short, but painful recession: the Late 2010s Recession. Like all recessions this will be a product of the business cycle, while the crash that kicks the whole thing off probably engaged from either non-performing student loans or car loans, but in the end those are the two industries that will be hit the hardest domestically. It will likely last no more than 11 months, unemployment will peak below 8%, but remain above 5% for at least another year. The contracting in effective demand in the US will hurt manufacturers most of all despite whatever protectionist policies Trump tries to pass, because the crash of those two industries will lead to a lot of defaults on debt from younger Americans, leading to a contraction on new car purchases by the generations that are still buying cars as the baby boomers retire. It will eventually impact the housing market, but the real impact won't be felt until the Big crash around the end of the 2020s. So, you have a situation where the Auto Industry, dealerships, and private colleges will be collapsing due to loans to people who couldn't afford them (sound familiar?) In all likelihood those Midwestern Democrats will benefit the most from the crash of the auto industry under Republican rule, while the ripple effect will put Republicans in a bind nation-wide as pissed off 20-30 somethings come out to vote and Trump's working class supporters (feeling burned) will turn on the Republicans much as they turned on Obama for not delivering all he promised in 18 months.

Amy Klobuchar, Bill Nelson, Ben Cardin, Bob Casey, Bob Menendez, Chris Murphy, Claire McCaskill, Debbie Stabenow, Dianne Feinstein, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Manchin, Kristen Gillibrand, Maria Cantwell, Martin Heinrich, Mazie Hirono, Sheldon Whitehouse, Tammy Baldwin, Tim Kaine, and Tom Carper are all candidates that have won their previous races by comfortable margins and can be considered "safe" seats for 2018. The only Dems that could be in trouble are Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, John Tester, Sherrod Brown, all of which are from states Trump carried or barely held onto their seats in their last race.

As for the Republicans, the safe seats are: Bob Corker, Deb Fischer, John Barrasso, Orrin Hatch, Roger Wicker, and Ted Cruz, while Dean Heller and Jeff Flake never won majorities in states Trump either lost or barely won. So realistically we have 6 competitive races with 2 Republicans and 4 Democrats up for grabs. Best case scenario for the Republicans is that they get to a 56 seat majority. However, I think its more likely that as a referendum on Trump's administration, the Democrats are more likely to pick up those 2 Republican seats, and bring the Senate to a 50-50 tie, kept in Republican control only by Vice President Pence's vote.



By 2020 the Democrats stand a real chance of taking back the Senate, particularly in North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado if they can build on the momentum against Trump from 2018.



==The House==

I still haven't done my homework on the House, but if 2010 was any guide, don't be surprised if Nancy Pelosi is Speaker in 2019. A Popular Democrat for 2020 could very well put the Dems over the top.



==Reforms==

Democrats have three fronts to battle for 2020 that Trump will have a hard time defending and the country is in sorely need of: Redistricting, National Popular Vote, and Ranked Choice voting.



===National Popular Vote===

This has been my axe to grind to years, so I may be looking at the likelihood of at least declawing the electoral college with rose tinted glasses, but hear me out. Personally, I don't like the idea of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, it just feels like a cop out. But its history reveals a truth many Democrats have been unable to see as they sulk from the depression that follows a soul cleaving defeat: the National popular Vote compact has made it out of committee or been voted on in 31 states. It's only passed in 9 states and DC, but the fact is that this isn't a measure that's been rejected out of hand, and the political will to get it voted on exists. And if you have that, it is indeed possible to push for a change. It takes 2/3 of the states to amend the constitution those 31 states who've considered NPVIC are just 3 shy of what you need. This is a fight the Democrats would be wise to show up for.



===Ranked Choice Voting===

In 2016 13 states saw neither candidate gain a majority, and most were swing states. Maine was one of those states, and they (having suffered under a governor who lost the popular vote in both elections) took action in 2016 by adopting Ranked Choice Voting. Democrats would do well to push for this nationally, first in strongholds where easy wins could build momentum, followed by the states where a candidate who failed to win a majority of the vote won all of their electoral votes. Other attempts can be made in states where RCV is in place in some cases at the local level and a positive test case can be referenced to push for state-wide adoption.



===Redistricting===

Currently the Federal and Supreme courts have weighed in on Gerrymandering in North Carolina and Wisconsin and determined that their efforts to redraw districts to benefit one party over the other is unconstitutional. Texas, Maryland, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana are home to some of the most gerrymandered districts in the country, so court decisions in those states before 2018 resulting from the Supreme court decision won't be unlikely (think of it as you would the results of the court's gay marriage ruling).

