OTTAWA — A “seismic shift” among voters has vaulted the NDP to second place, just five points behind the Conservative front-runners while the Liberals are falling further behind, a new poll reveals.

With less than a week to go in the campaign, Jack Layton is riding a wave of popular support for the NDP not seen in two decades, said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion.

A new Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse puts Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 35 per cent, the NDP close behind at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.

In Ontario, the Conservatives lead at 37 per cent, the Liberals are at 30 per cent and the NDP are just three points back at 27 per cent. In Quebec, the NDP are at 38 per cent, replacing the traditional front-runners, the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc are second with 29 per cent, the Liberals at 16 per cent and Conservatives at 14 per cent.

“It’s a pretty impressive shift that is taking place,” he said, noting the NDP started the campaign at 19 per cent nationally.

“To see a party climb 11 points over the course of the election, that’s pretty important,” he said Tuesday.

And it could be younger voters — the 18-34 demographic where the NDP enjoys its greatest support and who are least likely to vote — who determine which party holds the balance of power after Monday’s election.

“If you look these numbers, that would represent potentially a pretty interesting shift in the balance of power, certainly on the opposition benches,” Mukerji said.

“That balance of power is kind of in the hands of the youth vote right now. If they don’t come and vote, that probably gives a reprieve to the Liberals,” he said.

The poll is not good news for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, who impressed many early on but is now seeing his campaign “falter,” Mukerji said, noting that Ignatieff’s approval rating is down in this latest poll.

“It’s got to be frustrating for the Liberals because they got off to that good start, they haven’t had a major gaffe yet but it just doesn’t seem like they are getting any traction,” he said.

“It underscores the extent that people are looking at their choices on the centre-left and the NDP is increasingly looking like a good alternative,” he said.

Mukerji said the Conservatives are down slightly but noted that 36 per cent of respondents approve of Harper and his party.

Now the question is whether the New Democrats can hold their support through to Monday’s vote and how the surge will translate into seats. That’s been a problem for the NDP in the past, where they’ve enjoyed a mid-campaign bump in support only to see it bleed away on election day.

“Often times when you see these shifts, the first thing you ask yourself — is this just people flirting with the NDP or are people just saying this out of protest?” Mukerji said.

But this latest poll shows the NDP vote firming up with fewer supporters, suggesting they might change their choice when it comes to actually voting.

“What’s interesting about this shift is not only is the NDP gaining in popularity but that their vote seems to be solidifying,” he said.

The results are a shocker for Layton, who has led the NDP for eight years and yet is emerging as the alternative favoured by voters, rather than Ignatieff, a relative newcomer fighting his first election.

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He said that Layton seems to be benefitting from “discontent” among voters with the political class, especially in Quebec where the NDP are now out-polling the Bloc.

The results set the stage for an unpredictable election night with Harper’s appeal for a majority riding on voter turnout and how the centre-left vote splits.

The online poll of 2,041 Canadians was done on Monday and Tuesday. The margin of error is 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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