by Aaron Schatz

You won't find a lot of change in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers are still No. 1, the Los Angeles Rams are still a shocking No. 2, and the rest of the top eight teams all stayed the same with a couple of them flipping around. The big difference comes from Pittsburgh dropping more than five percentage points after a close victory over Detroit, from 34.7% last week to 29.4% this week. Since they are still at No. 1, this marks only the fourth time in DVOA history that no team had a DVOA over 30% after eight weeks of the season. Perhaps it says something about increasing parity that the other three times were also recent:

In 2010, Kansas City was 5-2 and No. 1 with 28.9% DVOA.

In 2011, Green Bay was somehow undefeated (7-0) but also sort of overrated, No. 1 but only at 28.0% DVOA.

Last year, Philadelphia was No. 1 with just a 4-3 record, at 28.6% DVOA.

Below the top eight there are a couple of teams making nice healthy rises this week. Baltimore (15 to 12) and Dallas (14 to 9) had the strongest single-game performances of the week according to DVOA. Surprisingly, the third-best single-game performance according to DVOA belonged to... Denver? Yes, the Broncos, despite losing 29-19 last night, put up 44.5% DVOA against the Chiefs and move up from 23 to 18 overall. This is not a statement that we've all mis-judged Trevor Siemian. Denver had more yards per play but both teams had low averages: 5.2 for Denver, 4.7 for Kansas City. Denver's offense and special teams are up slightly (though special teams are still dead last) but the rise is really powered by Denver's pass defense, which had a very strong game given how well the Chiefs passing game had been the rest of the season. Kansas City entered the game averaging 7.4 net yards per pass play (including DPIs). Denver held the Chiefs to just 5.9 net yards per pass play, and this was the first game all season where the Chiefs had two turnovers on offense: Alex Smith's fumble on a Shaquil Barrett sack and Tyreek Hill's ridiculous interception on a halfback pass. For crying out loud, you have to teach the non-quarterbacks to throw the ball away if the receiver is covered on the trick play.

Denver also held the Chiefs to 3.2 yards per carry on the ground, but that kind of run defense is nothing new. At least, it's nothing new for the 2017 season.

The Broncos went from 17th to 13th on pass defense, and from fourth to second on total defensive DVOA. In fact, both Denver got a big bump this week that doesn't look quite as big because those teams were already ranked high. Baltimore goes from -12.6% (fifth) to -17.0% (third) by making a bad offense look horrendous, while Denver goes from -13.0% (fourth) to -18.9% (second) by making an excellent offense look pedestrian.

Speaking of that team that the Ravens dismantled on Thursday night, the Miami Dolphins lost so badly that they have now moved behind the Cleveland Browns in DVOA. That's right. Not only are the Browns not in last place, they aren't even in next-to-last place. Miami dropped from -25.5% (28th) to -34.7% (31st) after the 40-0 loss. The Dolphins are by far the worst team in DVOA history to have a winning record after Week 6, more than seven percentage points behind the 2007 Lions at 4-2 or the 1992 Colts at 4-3 or last year's Houston Texans around midseason.

The Dolphins are part of the group that last week I dubbed the Awful Eight, the eight teams that are way behind the rest of the league in DVOA. There's still a big gap between the Awful Eight and 23 of the other 24 teams, although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are inching down slowly and threatening to make it an Awful Nine instead. After spending the whole season with a horrific defense and an underrated offense, the Bucs went out against Carolina and had a disaster on offense but played much better defense. (Coverage here in Any Given Sunday.) That moves the Bucs from sixth to 11th for offensive DVOA but raises them from dead last to 30th in defensive DVOA.

And in turn, that makes room for the Oakland Raiders to drop to 31st in defensive DVOA and for the New England Patriots to drop back into last place. I apologize for writing so much about the Patriots this year, but they're having a fascinating season. Because of what Denver did to the Chiefs on Monday night, the Patriots also moved up to the No. 1 spot in offensive DVOA. That's right: New England is the best team in the league on one side of the ball and the worst team on the other side of the ball.

Before we get to the history of teams like this, you're probably wondering how the Patriots ended up getting worse on defense after they held the Chargers to just 13 points. Much like Super Bowl LI, this was a game where the Patriots scored more points because they had more plays, even though they were no more efficient on a play-by-play basis. The Chargers gained 6.7 yards per play while the Patriots had only 5.0 yards per play. Take out Melvin Gordon's 87-yard touchdown, and the Chargers gained 5.2 yards per play, which is still higher than the Patriots. But the Patriots had a number of long, drawn-out drives that ended with field goal tries, while the Chargers had two touchdown drives with a grand total of five plays between them. The muffed punt safety cost them another possession, and the 51-yard drive to end the game still counts in DVOA even though the Chargers couldn't get the touchdown to complete the comeback attempt. The Chargers' only turnover on offense was the last interception, which we coded as Hail Mary and treat as a standard incomplete pass. The Patriots get 31.7% defensive DVOA on this game; they won it with special teams and by constantly moving the chains on those long drives.

So, back to the history here. No team has ever finished the year No. 1 on offense and dead last on defense. A few teams have come close. The 1986 Miami Dolphins were No. 1 on offense but were kept out of last place on defense by the worst defense ever measured by DVOA, the 1986 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In 1987 and 1988, the Dolphins were last in defense but No. 2 on offense. The 2008 Denver Broncos, in Jay Cutler's best season, led the Brady-less NFL in offense but finished 31st on defense. The 2013 Chargers were second in offensive DVOA but had the league's worst defense. And perhaps the weirdest one: the Baltimore Ravens, in their first season, were the complete opposite of everything they have been since. Vinny Testaverde led the No. 1 offense in football but the defense was 29th in a 30-team league.

In fact, once we get past the first couple games of the season, very few teams manage to rank first on offense and last on defense for even just a single week. The last team to do so after September was... the New England Patriots back in 2011. That was a year similar to this one, with a ton of parity and a Patriots team where the dominant offense and some takeaways made up for a porous defense. The Patriots were No. 1 on offense and No. 32 on defense for two weeks, Weeks 15-16, but finished the year third on offense and third from the bottom on defense.

Other than the 2011 and 2017 Patriots, only two other teams since 1989 have been No. 1 on offense and dead last on defense after September. The 2000 Rams did it for a single week, Week 12. And the 2002 Chiefs had this combination in Weeks 4-5, Weeks 8-9, and finally in Week 12. Unfortunately, I don't yet have a week-by-week breakdown with changing opponent adjustments done for 1986-1988. I'm sure the Miami Dolphins did this at some point in those seasons, but I can't say for sure.

By the way, the reverse of this is also extremely uncommon. No team has ever finished the season No. 1 on defense and dead last on offense. Only three teams since 1989 have managed this combination at some point after September. The 1992 Seahawks had this combination in Week 16 but fell to third in defensive DVOA after the final game. The 2004 Miami Dolphins were winless with the league's worst offense but still had the best defensive DVOA after both Week 5 and Week 6. And the 2015 Broncos were last in offense but first in defense after Weeks 5-7 and again after Week 10.

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The Patriots drop from 13th to 15th after the win against the Chargers. I believe DVOA has the Patriots lower than any other advanced statistical system. Some of that comes from the fact that we're not longer incorporating any past performance or preseason projection. Some of it might come from the play-by-play breakdown that factors out things like opposing field goal kickers. (The Patriots are No. 2 in "hidden" special teams value behind the Rams.) It feels really strange to have the Patriots so low at midseason. But it turns out this is nothing new.

Three other times since the Brady/Belichick dynasty began, the Patriots have been 6-2 with a DVOA lower than what they have right now, and two of these years were very recent:

In 2003, the Patriots were 13th overall with 7.7% DVOA. The defense was ninth overall but the offense was average. The Patriots were 4-1 in games decided by 8 points or less. Of course, they didn't lose a game the rest of the year, finishing 14-2, fourth in DVOA, and Super Bowl champions.

In 2013, the Patriots were 13th overall with 7.2% DVOA. They had the best special teams in the league and were sixth on defense but shockingly just 20th on offense. They had gone 4-2 in one-score games. They finished the season 12-4 and fifth in DVOA, losing in the AFC Championship Game to Denver.

In 2014, the Patriots were 12th overall with 7.0% DVOA. This time the offense was better (10th) but the defense was having problems (22nd). Unlike 2003 and 2013, the 2014 Patriots didn't build a 6-2 record on close wins. They were 2-0 in close games but were only 12th in DVOA because their 41-14 loss to Kansas City in Week 4 dragged them down significantly. This team also finished the season 12-4, fourth in DVOA, and won another Super Bowl championship.

Last week, some readers commented that I was trying to explain away the Patriots' poor performance. No, I don't believe that subjective ranking system is better than this, and I'm not going to use chat-acceptable spelling. But I find this Patriots season to be really fascinating. On one hand, what the Patriots are doing right now is extremely rare. On the other hand, what the Patriots are doing right now is something they've done over and over again. Before this season, Bill Belichick had been head coach of the New England Patriots for 17 years. In 12 of those 17 years, the Patriots had a higher DVOA at the end of the season than they had after Week 8. (The exceptions: 2000, 2002, 2007, 2009, and 2015.)

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 18. This week, we've got TWO sets of content: our weekly content for Madden Mobile and our monthly content for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles.

These players will get special Madden Mobile items branded as "Powerline, powered by Football Outsiders," beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. The Football Outsiders stars for Week 8 are:

DE Jadaveon Clowney, HOU (HERO): Sack, FF, 10 hurries according to Sports Info Solutions charting.

Sack, FF, 10 hurries according to Sports Info Solutions charting. G Jonathan Cooper, DAL: No sacks allowed; Cowboys had 23 carries, 96 yards, 61 percent success rate up the middle.

No sacks allowed; Cowboys had 23 carries, 96 yards, 61 percent success rate up the middle. WR Robby Anderson, NYJ: Tied for 3rd among WR with 59 DYAR (6-of-6, 104 yards, TD).

Tied for 3rd among WR with 59 DYAR (6-of-6, 104 yards, TD). CB Dre Kirkpatrick, CIN: 3 TFL including a sack; only targeted twice with no completions.

3 TFL including a sack; only targeted twice with no completions. DE Henry Anderson, IND: 5 solo tackles, sack, 2 hurries, blocked kick.

And here are the Football Outsiders October players for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles, which will go live this Saturday morning.

QB Deshaun Watson, HOU: Led all starting quarterbacks with 42.0% passing DVOA in October. 293 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per game with 16 passing TD and only 5 interceptions.

Led all starting quarterbacks with 42.0% passing DVOA in October. 293 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per game with 16 passing TD and only 5 interceptions. HB Aaron Jones, GB: Fourth among running backs with 74 rushing DYAR despite playing only three games in October. 99 yards per game, 6.1 yards per carry. 4 combined touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 receiving).

Fourth among running backs with 74 rushing DYAR despite playing only three games in October. 99 yards per game, 6.1 yards per carry. 4 combined touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 receiving). TE Cameron Brate, TB: Second among tight ends with 105 receiving DYAR in October. 69.6 yards per game, 13.9 yards per reception, 3 TD.

Second among tight ends with 105 receiving DYAR in October. 69.6 yards per game, 13.9 yards per reception, 3 TD. LG Rodger Saffold, LARM: Rams RB gained 5.1 yards per carry with 63 percent success rate on runs up the middle in October; Rams tied for third with 3.8 percent adjusted sack rate.

Rams RB gained 5.1 yards per carry with 63 percent success rate on runs up the middle in October; Rams tied for third with 3.8 percent adjusted sack rate. C Travis Frederick, DAL: Cowboys RB gained 5.3 yards per carry with league-leading 66 percent success rate on runs up the middle in October; Cowboys tied for third with 3.8 percent adjusted sack rate.

Cowboys RB gained 5.3 yards per carry with league-leading 66 percent success rate on runs up the middle in October; Cowboys tied for third with 3.8 percent adjusted sack rate. RT Ryan Ramczyk, NO: Saints RB gained 4.7 yards per carry with 62 percent success rate on runs to the right in October; Saints second with 3.4 percent adjusted sack rate.

Saints RB gained 4.7 yards per carry with 62 percent success rate on runs to the right in October; Saints second with 3.4 percent adjusted sack rate. DT DeForest Buckner, SF: Tied for fourth in NFL with 11 defeats in October; top 20 for the season with 18 hurries according to Sports Info Solutions charting.

Tied for fourth in NFL with 11 defeats in October; top 20 for the season with 18 hurries according to Sports Info Solutions charting. LOLB Christian Kirksey, CLE: Led all defenders with 52 plays (tackles, assists, PDs) and 13 defeats in October.

Led all defenders with 52 plays (tackles, assists, PDs) and 13 defeats in October. CB Ken Crawley, NO: Fifth in success rate, eighth in yards per pass according to Sports Info Solutions charting.

Fifth in success rate, eighth in yards per pass according to Sports Info Solutions charting. SS Jahleel Addae, LACH: 19 run tackles and 7 tackles on failed pass completions in October, both third among NFL safeties.

19 run tackles and 7 tackles on failed pass completions in October, both third among NFL safeties. K Harrison Butker, KC: 18-of-19 field goals, 27-of-35 touchbacks on kickoffs.

18-of-19 field goals, 27-of-35 touchbacks on kickoffs. P Shane Lechler, HOU: 51.4 average gross yards per punt, 9 of 19 punts ending inside the 20.

We also have two special Football Outsiders midseason MVPs, who will be in Madden UItimate Team packs for a limited time this weekend.

Midseason Offensive MVP: QB Carson Wentz, PHI*

Midseason Defensive MVP: DE Calais Campbell, JAC

*OK, by Football Outsiders stats it's pretty clear that Tom Brady is the midseason MVP. He's over 200 DYAR ahead of the rest of the quarterbacks and has lifted the league's worst defense to a 6-2 record. However, he's also on the cover of the game and already the best pocket quarterback in Madden Ultimate Team. So think of Carson Wentz as our Midseason Offensive Most Valuable Player Who Isn't Already on the Cover of the Game.

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All stats pages should now be updated through Week 8, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium DVOA database. This week, we say goodbye to DAVE, our method which combines 2017 performance with our preseason projections. All numbers listed below represent 2017 only. However, just as I did last year, I used a light version of DAVE for the playoff odds simulation. The ratings used for playoff odds consist mostly of WEIGHTED DVOA, with a small amount of preseason forecast still included: five percent for teams that have played eight games, and nine percent for teams that have played seven games.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through eight weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Opponent adjustments are currently at 80 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 PIT 29.4% 1 29.3% 1 6-2 17.1% 5 -13.7% 5 -1.4% 22 2 LARM 27.4% 2 27.6% 2 5-2 5.8% 13 -15.0% 4 6.7% 4 3 PHI 22.3% 4 22.6% 3 7-1 10.4% 9 -5.4% 15 6.5% 5 4 KC 21.6% 3 21.1% 5 6-2 24.4% 2 10.0% 26 7.2% 3 5 NO 21.5% 5 21.7% 4 5-2 19.4% 3 -4.4% 16 -2.3% 23 6 MIN 19.0% 6 19.1% 6 6-2 10.0% 10 -7.8% 9 1.3% 16 7 JAC 18.0% 8 18.1% 7 4-3 4.8% 14 -22.3% 1 -9.0% 29 8 HOU 17.9% 7 17.9% 8 3-4 10.5% 8 -8.8% 8 -1.3% 21 9 DAL 14.3% 14 14.7% 9 4-3 18.2% 4 9.1% 25 5.2% 6 10 BUF 13.3% 11 13.2% 11 5-2 0.8% 18 -7.7% 10 4.9% 7 11 SEA 13.1% 10 13.5% 10 5-2 3.4% 17 -7.5% 12 2.3% 13 12 BAL 11.6% 15 11.7% 12 4-4 -13.1% 24 -17.0% 3 7.7% 2 13 DET 11.5% 12 11.2% 13 3-4 -7.6% 22 -10.4% 7 8.7% 1 14 WAS 8.5% 9 8.1% 16 3-4 6.2% 12 -6.6% 13 -4.3% 25 15 NE 8.4% 13 8.5% 14 6-2 26.0% 1 21.2% 32 3.6% 9 16 CAR 8.4% 17 8.4% 15 5-3 -8.4% 23 -13.3% 6 3.6% 10 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 GB 3.5% 16 3.3% 17 4-3 4.1% 15 2.2% 19 1.5% 14 18 DEN 1.9% 23 1.7% 18 3-4 -6.4% 21 -18.9% 2 -10.7% 32 19 OAK -1.4% 19 -1.1% 19 3-5 15.4% 6 18.2% 31 1.4% 15 20 TEN -3.7% 20 -4.0% 20 4-3 0.2% 19 6.4% 21 2.5% 12 21 ATL -4.2% 21 -4.6% 21 4-3 12.1% 7 15.8% 28 -0.5% 20 22 LACH -4.9% 22 -4.7% 22 3-5 4.0% 16 -1.3% 17 -10.1% 30 23 CIN -5.9% 18 -6.2% 23 3-4 -14.8% 27 -7.7% 11 1.3% 17 24 TB -12.0% 24 -12.4% 24 2-5 7.5% 11 16.8% 30 -2.8% 24 25 NYG -20.3% 26 -20.1% 25 1-6 -3.9% 20 8.7% 24 -7.7% 27 26 NYJ -22.8% 25 -23.0% 26 3-5 -14.6% 26 8.2% 22 -0.1% 19 27 CHI -23.9% 27 -23.6% 27 3-5 -21.6% 29 -5.8% 14 -8.2% 28 28 ARI -28.5% 29 -28.6% 28 3-4 -14.5% 25 3.6% 20 -10.4% 31 29 SF -31.2% 30 -31.2% 29 0-8 -21.4% 28 13.9% 27 4.2% 8 30 CLE -34.3% 31 -33.7% 30 0-8 -27.4% 32 1.0% 18 -5.9% 26 31 MIA -34.7% 28 -34.5% 31 4-3 -26.6% 31 8.3% 23 0.2% 18 32 IND -37.6% 32 -37.2% 32 2-6 -24.7% 30 16.3% 29 3.4% 11

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).