The #5 Nittany Lions are the underdogs against the #9 Trojans, despite the championship and overall record.

#5 Penn State (11-2, 9-1 Big Ten East; Big Ten Champion) vs #9 Southern Cal (9-3, 7-2 Pac 12 South; Division Runner-Up)

5:00 p.m. ET, January 2, 2017--ESPN

Rose Bowl Stadium (Capacity: 92,542 / Pasadena, CA)

Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) USC Advantage Rushing Offense (ypg) 168.8(75) 133.7 (29) Rushing Defense (ypg) Passing Offense (ypg) 261.2 (39) 225.3 (65) Passing Defense (ypg) Pass Efficiency 156.29 (14) 122.72 (38) Pass Efficiency Defense Push

Total Offense (ypg) 430.1 (54) 359.0 (30) Total Defense (ypg) Push Scoring Offense (ppg) 36.7 (22) 22.2 (25) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push

Rushing Defense (ypg) 153.5 (49) 207.3 (37) Rushing Offense (ypg) Push

Passing Defense (ypg) 198.5 (25) 261.7 (38) Passing Offense (ypg) Push Pass Efficiency Defense 119.77 (30) 148.45 (28) Pass Efficiency Push Total Defense (ypg) 352.0 (22) 468.9 (27) Total Offense (ypg) Push Scoring Defense (ppg) 23.4 (34) 32.9 (41) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push Punt Return Defense (ypr) 7.06 (55) 16.46 (6) Punt Return Yds Punt Return Yds 6.07 (95) 4.57 (22) Punt Return Defense (ypr) Net Punting Yds 37.37 (68) 36.26 (89) Net Punting Yds Push Kickoff Return Yds 19.41 (91) 18.85 (31) Kickoff Return Defense Kickoff Return Defense 18.8 (30) 23.97 (17) Kickoff Return Yds Push Turnover Margin +.23 (47) -.17 (T-79) Turnover Margin Penalty Yds/Game 42.85 (19) 65.67 (111) Penalty Yds/Game Sacks 3.0/gm (T-14) .92/gm (T-6) Sacks Allowed Push Sacks Allowed 1.77/gm (48)

2.08/gm (T-61)

Sacks Push Redzone Offense (%) 85.9% (T-50)

90.0% (T-39)

Redzone Defense (%) Push Redzone Defense (%) 88.4% (96)

80.8% (92) Redzone Offense (%) Push

Redzone TD % 53.13% 62.86%

Redzone TD % Defense Push Redzone TD % Defense 58.14% 61.54%

Redzone TD % Push 3rd Down Conv. % 32.1% (121)

35.2% (26)

3rd Down Defense % 3rd Down Defense % 37.3% (39)

47.2% (15) 3rd Down Conv. % Push 4th Down Conv. % 50.0% (T-60) 60.0% (T-95) 4th Down Defense % 4th Down Defense % 38.1% (23)

50.0% (T-60) 4th Down Conv. % 1st Downs 262 (T-61) 226 (23) 1st Downs Allowed 1st Downs Allowed 241 (39) 289 (35) 1st Downs Push Time of Possession 27:49 (99)

31:47 (30) Time of Possession Strength of Schedule 5 1 Strength of Schedule Push

Difference

Difference >25 in National Rank =

Difference >50 in National Rank =

Difference >75 in National Rank =

Difference >100 in National Rank =

Note: All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is not ranked by the NCAA and instead taken from S&P (Football Outsiders).

The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts:

Once again, I expected there to be more red - especially with how the media narrative is that Penn State will get destroyed (sound familiar?).

My thoughts on the actual numbers, though? That the categories that USC seems to have a strong advantage in (3rd down conversions, time of possession, first downs while the Nittany Lions are on offense) have more to do with the style of offense that Joe Moorhead runs than any deficiency in PSU's game. For example, every team they've played has had a TOP advantage - some significantly (like Wisconsin, who was first in the nation in time of possession prior to the Big Ten Championship). But that conventional wisdom simply doesn't work with this offense.

And I'd expect the passing stats to be even more of a tick in Penn State's favor - giving Moorhead a month to gameplan means new and exciting play installations, and likely the pass opening up the run of Saquon Barkley.

What do you all think?