S.1 W.1 (Stage 1 Week 1) Power Rankings

by Kasey - 3 years ago

PRE | Stage 1: 1|2|3|4|5| Stage 2: 1|2|3|4|5| Stage 3: 1|2|3|4|5| Stage 4: 1|2|3|4|5|

*This article has been edited in the wake of xQc’s suspension.

The Overwatch League preseason confirmed plenty of speculation and dispelled plenty more. After the first exhilarating games, here’s where we stand going into week one, which begins January 10, 2018:

1. Seoul Dynasty

Last Week: 3-0*

Change: +1

Elo Rating: 1046

Week 1: Dallas Fuel, Los Angeles Gladiators

Seoul dominated the preseason. Unequivocally. In three matches, they dropped only two frames, defeating the lauded Houston Outlaws and New York Excelsior in the process. While there’s no doubt Seoul has a star-studded roster, I hold only one reservation regarding this squad: for the same reason that I’m not completely down on Shanghai after their lackluster preseason, Seoul’s success stems from their pre-packaged chemistry that they brought with them from APEX. In their first match against Shanghai, their chemistry was on full display. Shanghai looked hapless in their 0-4 loss, but they also had next-to-zero practice against Seoul’s well-oiled machine. The contrast between preparedness and lack thereof was palpable. Seoul is elite, but I don’t think they’ll be quite as dominant over the course of a 20 week season as other teams develop chemistry of their own.

2. Dallas Fuel

Last Week: 2-0

Change: +1

Elo Rating: 1030

Week 1: Seoul Dynasty, Los Angeles Valiant

Dallas emerged the victor of a 3-2 thriller over Houston on Thursday and won with finesse against the Florida Mayhem on Saturday. On a first glimpse, this team looks the part of an elite contender. If they can contain xQc’s misconduct woes, a championship bid may be in their future.

3. Los Angeles Valiant

Last Week: 2-0

Change: +4

Elo Rating: 1031

Week 1: San Francisco Shock, Dallas Fuel

Judging solely by the their record, the Valiant exceeded the expectations I outlined for them in my first power rankings. Their performance against the San Francisco Shock was impressive, as the Shock looked red-hot coming off their win against the Florida Mayhem. Even more impressive, however, was their 3-1 win over their home-town rival, the Los Angeles Gladiators, who has just finished upsetting my number one-ranked London Spitfire. The Valiant played the spoilers in the preseason, but they need to show me more in the regular season. They too benefited from having a roster with pre-built synergy, and while the game film never lies, it also doesn’t serve as a predictor for how this team will perform once the patchwork rosters build some rapport of their own.

4. London Spitfire

Last Week: 1-1

Change: -3

Elo Rating: 1015

Week 1: Florida Mayhem, Philadelphia Fusion

My previous number one team, London got fleeced by the Los Angeles Gladiators in their first preseason match. Don’t mistake my verbiage: they got fleeced, sure, but only insomuch as they weren’t prepared. The match was decided in a narrow 3-2 tiebreaker, and London didn’t look incompetent. Rather, it was the play of LA’s Hydration, Asher, and surefour that caught the Spitfire unprepared. Their redemption match against San Francisco highlighted exactly how scary this London team can be when they’ve had the time to study their opponent. They isolated and shutdown BABYBAY en route to a 4-0 sweep. Look for them to show more of the latter in the regular season.

5. New York Excelsior

Last Week: 1-1

Change: 0

Elo Rating: 1001

Week 1: Boston Uprising, Houston Outlaws

There’s a lot to like about New York. They have a roster loaded with talent, some pre-built synergy, and prime time talent waiting in the wings. In the preseason, they played like an upper-middle team, handing Boston, but losing in equal margin to the elite Seoul Dynasty. They don’t move at rank five.

6. Los Angeles Gladiators

Last Week: 1-1

Change: +3

Elo Rating: 985

Week 1: Shanghai Dragons, Seoul Dynasty

I’m going to reserve my vote of confidence in the Gladiators until they prove they can sustain success. While there’s talent on this team, as demonstrated by their win over London, I suspect the limitations of their seven-man roster limited them in their loss to their hometown rivals. Still, a win against a great team is something, and their DPS trio might be among the best in the league. They sit at rank six.

7. Houston Outlaws

Last Week: 0-2

Change: -3

Elo Rating: 971

Week 1: Philadelphia Fusion, New York Excelsior

In retrospect, Houston may have had the toughest draw in the preseason. Their first skirmish with the Dallas Fuel was one of the most anticipated matches of the preseason, and one that delivered on the hype. In a hotly-contested duel, the Outlaws were edged out in overtime for a 3-2 final score. Houston’s pairing only got harder for their final game as they drew the team that sits atop these power rankings: Seoul. They picked up one only game against Seoul’s elite roster, stumbling in game three on Ilios, and succumbing to Ryujehong and Fleta’s respective Soldier:76 and Genji play on Numbani to seal the deal. Where Houston demonstrated finesse, calculation, and grit against Dallas, they looked flustered–a step behind–against the Dynasty, often popping ultimates at inopportune times to survive rather than imposing their will. Though their final preseason record was a disappointing 0-2, Houston’s woes may have been the product of a tough draw rather than lackluster play. The Outlaws need to demonstrate they can win the tough ones, however.

8. San Francisco Shock

Last Week: 1-2*

Change: +3

Elo Rating: 982

Week 1: Los Angeles Valiant, Shanghai Dragons

I struggled mightily trying to accurately evaluate San Francisco. In three matches, they demonstrated some moments of dominance and others of utter collapse. I think it’d be fairest to say San Francisco has some talented pieces on their roster, but as a team, they’re incomplete. So much of the Shock’s success came from BABYBAY’s authoritative signal-calling and virtuosity with multiple characters, but when opponents became savvy to their strengths, they crumbled. This was most evident in their match against London, who completely shut BABYBAY down en route to a 4-0 sweep. Make no mistake: San Francisco has some exciting talent, but they’ll need to demonstrate that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts if they hope to post wins week in and week out.

9. Boston Uprising

Last Week: 1-1

Change: +3

Elo Rating: 1000

Week 1: New York Excelsior, Florida Mayhem

They are who we thought they were. Though Boston climbs out of the preseason with a “W” to their names, the team struggled to leave an impression worth endorsing. If the Uprising had a signature win against one of the better teams, I’d be more inclined to rank them higher, but the reality is, they won in grindy fashion against arguably the worst team that showed up for the preseason in Shanghai. I’ll give them the bump for leaving with a win, but I’m not yet willing to sing Boston’s praises.

10. Florida Mayhem

Last Week: 0-2

Change: 0

Elo Rating: 969

Week 1: London Spitfire, Boston Uprising

I speculated in my preseason rankings that Florida’s six-man roster was their greatest limiting factor, and their preseason play bore that out. One could point to the LA Gladiators’ relative success with a seven-man roster as a reason to contribute Florida’s woes to other factors than roster size, but the difference between Florida and LA was, in fact, the one extra man on LA’s roster. The reason the Gladiators beat London was largely in part due to the Gladiator’s ability to assemble an unconventional three-DPS team composition. London will be ready for LA next time, and Florida is in a place where they need to rethink their composition-substitution strategy.

11. Shanghai Dragons

Last Week: 0-2

Change: -5

Elo Rating: 969

Week 1: Los Angeles Gladiators, San Francisco Shock

I tanked Shanghai here, and I’ve been critical of their play so far, but there’s only so much one can expect from a team who had nearly zero practice prior to the preseason. A full month of conditioning as a team should mold this team into form, but its hard to look past their uncoordinated play in the preseason.

12. Philadelphia Fusion

Last Week: N/A*

Change: -4

Elo Rating: 1000

Week 1: Houston Outlaws, London Spitfire

Do I honestly believe Philadelphia is the worst team in the Overwatch League? No. But in order to win games, you have to be eligible to compete in them. I might be too harsh on Philadelphia’s absence from preseason action: this is, after all, the first season of an entire esports league, one wrought with seismic expectations and an even greater logistical nightmare for a first attempt. Still, Philadelphia demonstrated some reasons for concern: first, their absence reflects poorly on their team and the league, both of which need to project professionalism at all times. Second, their excuse (and I’m comfortable calling it that) feeds my greatest concern for this Philly squad that I mentioned last week: the language/communication barrier that a roster featuring players and coaches from 10 different countries. If this barrier is already preventing the team from showing up to matches, it’s hard to trust their in-game coordination, which presents the same barrier to success. Philly has me on alert.

*Denotes a record affected by Philadelphia’s absence in preseason play.

Stray observations and lingering questions:

1. Our newly-introduced Elo rating system is still in its infancy, but it shows promise. As you’ve probably noticed, each team’s ranking this week is accompanied by an Elo number that suggests the team’s power based on head-to-head matchups and strength of opponent. However, these ratings will reset for the regular season for two main reasons. First, though the preseason offered us a lot of insight into the strengths of the teams, preseason success doesn’t necessarily mean regular season success because the preseason is an opportunity for teams to experiment without penalty. If we weigh the preseason the same way as the regular season, I worry the preseason Elo will distort the rankings down the stretch. Second, three teams (Seoul, San Francisco, Philadelphia) played a different number of preseason games than the scheduled two due to Philadelphia’s absence. Elo ratings work better when each team has the same number of games.

2. In an earlier article, I explained why Elo ratings will inform, not determine, my power rankings. That still holds true, but for your convenience and curiosity, here’s this week’s power rankings as a raw reflection of Elo:

1. Seoul Dynasty: 1046

2. Los Angeles Valiant: 1031

3. Dallas Fuel: 1030

4. London Spitfire: 1015

5. New York Excelsior: 1001

6. Philadelphia Fusion: T-1000

7.Boston Uprising: T-1000

8. Los Angeles Gladiators: 985

9. San Francisco Shock: 982

10. Houston Outlaws: 971

11. Florida Mayhem: T-969

12. Shanghai Dragons: T-969

3. Can I get my BABYBAY jersey yet? Is this the kind of sport where it’s cool to wear an awesome player’s swag?

4. Overwatch League is new for everyone, so I offer observations and criticism fully prepared to eat my words. In some instances, I hope I do. I was hard on Philly, but I hope they succeed. I tanked Shanghai, but I think their problem is correctable and circumstantial, not due to a lack of talent. I have some concerns about the watchability of the broadcast, but I trust the fine minds who produce it will use their own critical faculties and respond to the appropriate outside criticism to improve the product. I guess my point is this: Overwatch League isn’t perfect and shouldn’t be in its infancy. Don’t be hypercritical of the product yet, and certainly don’t let the shortcomings stop you from enjoying all that is good about the product.

5. Driftwood’s Word of the Week: iteration: “the action or a process of iterating or repeating: such as: a procedure in which repetition of a sequence of operations yields results successively closer to a desired result. b : the repetition of a sequence of computer instructions a specified number of times or until a condition is met.” While watching the Overwatch League preseason, I found myself asking–and resisting the urge to continue asking–how coverage for Overwatch League will iterate and reiterate the viewing experience in the coming months and years. While the preseason excited me, I frequently wondered if the broadcast truly maximized the layman’s viewing experience. I’d wager most people who watched the broadcast enjoyed it because they were already fans of Overwatch, and understand some intermediate to advanced strategy, but if this league wants to gain new fans who aren’t already enfranchised, we need more third person camera to provide the audience with context and generate excitement. Further, I think enfranchised fans and newbies alike had some questions about the Overwatch League scoring system, which runs independent of the ladder and other Overwatch esports scoring. I’d like to see future iterations of the broadcast take a harder look at some of the basic quality-of-life elements of the viewing experience.