By Ipankonin [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

A new poll from CNN/ORC has results that should make Democrats optimistic about their chances of taking over the House of Representatives in 2018.

Congress has an approval rating of only 24% compared to a 74% disapproval rating.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has an unfavorability rating of 48% compared to 38% favorability.

55% of voters are more willing to vote for a candidate that opposes President Trump compared to 41% that prefer a President Trump supporter.

50% said they would vote for a Democrat compared to 41% that would vote for a Republican.

As a Democrat candidate running against Mia Love (Utah CD4), this news excites me and should give every Democrat optimism moving forward.

This is a national poll and House seats are won on a district-by-district basis. Does this poll even tell us anything about how likely Democrats are to take the House when it wasn’t conducted on a district-by-district basis? In fact, it does. From Five Thirty Eight (emphasis mine):

So if Democrats win the national House vote by a margin in the low- to mid-single digits, that may not be enough to take back the House. The median congressional district was 5.5 percentage points more Republican-leaning in the presidential race than the nation as a whole in 2016, meaning Democrats are essentially spotting the GOP 5.5 points in the battle for control of the House. And even that may be underestimating Republicans ability to win a majority of seats without a majority of the vote. Since 2012 (or when most states instituted the current House district lines), Republicans have won, on average, 51 percent of the two-party House vote and 55 percent of House seats. If that difference holds for 2018, Democrats would need to win the House popular vote by about 8 percentage points to win half the House seats.

Temporarily try to ignore the disgusting fact that the district lines are drawn in such a way that Republicans can win 51% of the popular vote and actually pick up 55% of the actual seats. Instead focus on that last statement — If Democrats can manage to get an 8-point advantage in the House popular vote, they are likely to win a majority of seats. According to this latest poll, Democrats are sitting at a 9-point advantage.

Democrats need to take 24 seats to win the House in 2018. There are 23 districts with a sitting Republican that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (Utah’s CD4 is not one of those). Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report had this to say about 2018:

In fact, if you look back at the last four midterm elections where the party in the White House lost control of one or both houses of Congress, you see that they share the following traits in common: the president has approval ratings among his own partisans under 85 percent and approval ratings among independents in the 30’s or low 40s. ... Among independents, strong disapprovers outnumber strong approvers by more than 2-1 (45 percent to 18 percent). An angry voter is an active voter, which in a low-turnout election is bad news for the GOP. ...the current situation of Republican-infighting, a lack of legislative accomplishments and a President determined to keep stoking political divisions is a very dangerous path for the GOP.

This can happen. Democrats can overcome the gerrymandered district lines and win enough seats to gain control.

There are serious questions over Trump’s ties to Russia, the pillars of our democracy are crumbling, and the ruling party in this country is looking the other way so that they can focus on their agenda. If Democrats can take the House in 2018, real change can begin to happen. Democrats could demand subpoenas to assist in the investigation over whether a presidential candidate colluded with a foreign power in order to win an election. Democrats could introduce legislation to fight gerrymandering and make our government more representative of its voters. If necessary, Democrats could begin impeachment proceedings.

I grew up in Utah’s 4th Congressional District where Mia Love won by 5-points in 2014 and 12.5-points in 2016. This district is more than swingable and I have never seen the kind of political energy on the left like I am seeing now. Join me in my effort to unseat Mia Love and help Democrats take over the House of Representatives by donating to my campaign at www.tomforutah.com.