Perdue has drawn three solid Democratic challengers in former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson, former Clarkston Mayor Ted Terry and 2018 lieutenant governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico. But Stacey Abrams’ decision to take a pass on the race was a clear signal that challenging Perdue is shaping up to be a typically tough statewide slog for any Democrat, even one with Abrams’ following.

The Isakson race is a different story. Unlike the Perdue contest, this seat will first be filled by whomever GOP Gov. Brian Kemp appoints, and then by a special election in which candidates from all parties run on the same November 2020 ballot. Without having to go through a partisan primary before the general election, the race immediately favors high-name-ID moderates over base-pleasers from either party. High-name-ID moderates? It’s hard to even name one other than Isakson. But whichever unicorn wins that race will then have to run for reelection in 2022 for the remaining two years of Isakson’s term. That contest will include a partisan primary. It’s a heavy lift, but a once-in-a-generation wild card for the right candidate.

Suburban shuffle

The modern Republican Party in Georgia began in Atlanta’s fledgling suburbs in the 1970s, when Republican transplants to the Peach State like Newt Gingrich and Tom Price won seats in the state Legislature.

But a new wave of transplants — Metro Atlanta had the fourth-fastest-growing population in the country last year — has brought 1.2 million new voters to the state since 2010, including many of the highly educated suburban women who have been in no mood for either Trump’s Twitter feed or presidency. Last cycle, the Trump drag opened the door for Democrat Lucy McBath to defeat GOP incumbent Rep. Karen Handel in the 6th District, the first time a Democrat had won the seat since the 1970s. Handel is running again, along with more than half a dozen other Republicans, betting that McBath’s 1-point victory in 2018 was a fluke.

But McBath’s win came two years after Hillary Clinton won two suburban Atlanta counties, Cobb and Gwinnett, including portions of McBath’s district and the 7th District next door. On the same night McBath won her seat, veteran GOP Rep. Rob Woodall held on in the 7th District by just 419 votes. Woodall has opted to retire next year, and that’s unleashed an open-seat melee, with 16 candidates at last count bidding to succeed him. That half of them are Democrats who believe they could win the 7th District at all is a sea change for that area in and of itself.