Democrats are devising their election-year strategy around Donald Trump Donald John TrumpObama calls on Senate not to fill Ginsburg's vacancy until after election Planned Parenthood: 'The fate of our rights' depends on Ginsburg replacement Progressive group to spend M in ad campaign on Supreme Court vacancy MORE, confident they will win big this fall with the real estate mogul as the Republican presidential nominee.

Throughout 2015, influential Democratic operatives targeted GOP White House hopefuls Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio Marco Antonio RubioFlorida senators pushing to keep Daylight Savings Time during pandemic Hillicon Valley: DOJ indicts Chinese, Malaysian hackers accused of targeting over 100 organizations | GOP senators raise concerns over Oracle-TikTok deal | QAnon awareness jumps in new poll Intelligence chief says Congress will get some in-person election security briefings MORE, thinking Trump’s campaign would implode. But now, Democrats — including President Obama — are going after Trump hard.

ADVERTISEMENT

Democratic strategists say the billionaire, who won at least three of five states up for grabs on Tuesday, could drag down Senate Republicans running for reelection in swing states by between 3 and 8 percentage points.

“There’s a sizable percentage of American voters who will never vote for Trump. His politics and personality will really be the focal point of the campaign. It’s bound to have an impact on Senate and House races,” said Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin Richard (Dick) Joseph DurbinMcConnell focuses on confirming judicial nominees with COVID-19 talks stalled Senate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden Top GOP senator calls for Biden to release list of possible Supreme Court picks MORE (Ill.). “Someone I spoke to yesterday said it’s an 8-percent factor.”

House Democrats are also emboldened though have stopped short of predicting they will win the 30 seats they need to take back the lower chamber.

Trump says he will have coattails in the fall, claiming that he — unlike any of his GOP rivals — can win over “Reagan Democrats” and carry states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. He also has noted that Republicans enjoy an enthusiasm advantage over Democrats this cycle and that his candidacy is sparking new voters to come to the polls.

Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid Harry Mason ReidSenate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden Mellman: The likely voter sham Bottom line MORE (Nev.) will deliver a critique of Trump Wednesday at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, where he will attempt to tie the celebrity businessman’s no-holds-barred brand of politics to Republican lawmakers and candidates.

Reid will argue the tactics employed by Senate and House Republicans, along with conservative groups, to block Obama’s agenda has created the poisonous political atmosphere in which Trump has thrived, according to a source familiar with his speech.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is working overtime to link vulnerable Republican incumbents to Trump, touting the fact that they have pledged to support the eventual GOP nominee.

The group on Tuesday launched a new multimedia campaign painting the GOP as the “Party of Trump.”

The effort includes a new television ad featuring clips of various Republican incumbents pledging to back their party’s nominee interspersed with clips of Trump using profanity, mocking a disabled New York Times reporter and bragging about the size of his genitalia.

“The candidates who are running have all said they’re going to support him. That means they support the vile things he said. It will be interesting,” said DSCC Chairman Jon Tester Jonathan (Jon) TesterPence seeks to boost Daines in critical Montana Senate race This World Suicide Prevention Day, let's recommit to protecting the lives of our veterans Filibuster fight looms if Democrats retake Senate MORE (Mont.). “He’s badmouthed women, he’s badmouthed immigrants.”

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhat Senate Republicans have said about election-year Supreme Court vacancies Bipartisan praise pours in after Ginsburg's death Trump carries on with rally, unaware of Ginsburg's death MORE, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, has also pivoted toward the general election in recent days.

Campaigning in North Carolina Tuesday, she accused Trump of “bluster, bigotry and bullying” and called his behavior disturbing.

On Monday, she labeled him “dangerous” in a private comment that was picked up by a live microphone and criticized the media for treating his antics “like candy by the bushel.”

Those remarks are a significant shift from last summer, when Clinton didn’t take Trump seriously as a contender for the Republican nomination. At the time, she said, “It’s all entertainment. I think he’s having the time of his life. Getting up on that stage, you know, being up on that stage, saying whatever he wants to say, getting people excited, both for and against him.”

Obama jumped back into the Trump fray on Tuesday by speaking out against what he called the rise of “vicious” politics and “vulgar and divisive rhetoric” at the annual St. Patrick’s Day lunch on Capitol Hill. While he did not mention Trump by name, the target was clear. He made similar remarks about Trump in his State of the Union address in January.

The president called on GOP leaders to police Trump’s tactics while acknowledging that Democrats should do more themselves to improve the level of political discourse.

“When we leave this lunch, I think we have a choice,” Obama said. “We can condone this race to the bottom, or accept it as the way things are and sink further or roundly reject this kind of behavior whether we see it in the other party or, more importantly, when we see it our own party. ... It starts with us.”

Obama seized the opportunity to distinguish Trump from Speaker Paul Ryan Paul Davis RyanKenosha will be a good bellwether in 2020 At indoor rally, Pence says election runs through Wisconsin Juan Williams: Breaking down the debates MORE (R-Wis.), who is generally well-respected inside and outside the Beltway.

He said that while he “fiercely” disagrees with Ryan on policy, “I don’t have a bad thing to say about you as a man.”

Ryan also urged Trump on Tuesday to tone down his rhetoric.

“All candidates have an obligation to try and provide an atmosphere of harmony, to reduce violence, to not incite violence and to make sure we are appealing to people on their best ideals,” he said at a news conference at the Republican National Committee’s headquarters.

Senate Republicans are growing increasingly concerned over Trump’s impact on their ability to keep control of the upper chamber in November. Only one GOP senator, Jeff Sessions Jefferson (Jeff) Beauregard SessionsTrump's policies on refugees are as simple as ABCs Ocasio-Cortez, Velázquez call for convention to decide Puerto Rico status White House officials voted by show of hands on 2018 family separations: report MORE of Alabama, has endorsed him.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellObama calls on Senate not to fill Ginsburg's vacancy until after election Planned Parenthood: 'The fate of our rights' depends on Ginsburg replacement Progressive group to spend M in ad campaign on Supreme Court vacancy MORE (R-Ky.) on Tuesday urged Trump to condemn recent flare-ups of violence at his rallies, which feed into Democrats’ effort to portray him as an extremist.

“I mentioned to him that I thought it would be a good idea for him no matter who starts these violent episodes to condemn it,” McConnell told reporters on Tuesday.

The GOP leader spoke just hours after Trump called him as part of his effort to get the Republican establishment to back his campaign and help unify the party.

Reid dismissed McConnell’s admonishment of Trump as too little, too late.

“It’s nice McConnell said something publicly, but it should have started a long time ago,” he said.

Even without Trump creating national headwinds, Senate Republicans have a big job cut for them ahead of Election Day. They must defend 24 seats, compared to the 10 seats Democrats have to protect. Democrats would need to pick up five seats to win back control of the chamber and only four if they retain the White House.

“Senate Republicans are absolutely committed to doing everything it takes to hold this majority,” McConnell said Tuesday.

He has tried to distance himself and his colleagues from Trump by largely refusing to discuss his campaign and by instead emphasizing the chamber’s legislative accomplishments over the past 14 months.

But reporters dog Republican senators about Trump’s controversial statements far more often than they ask about legislation pending on the Senate floor, such as a bill addressing the labeling of genetically modified foods.

Trump on Monday downplayed the recent violence at his rallies, insisting they are “love fests.”

That claim conflicts with footage captured last week of a Trump supporter striking an African-American protester at a rally. The Trump supporter was later arrested.

When pressed, McConnell declined to comment on what it might reflect about Trump that he had to be reminded to condemn violence.

“I’m pretty good at not answering questions I don’t want to answer,” he said.

Republicans counter that Democratic candidates will face their own challenges in trying to distance themselves from Clinton, whose email controversy stemming from her time as secretary of State has attracted interest from federal investigators.

Republicans pushed back ahead of Reid’s scheduled speech.

Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn John CornynBipartisan praise pours in after Ginsburg's death Chamber of Commerce endorses McSally for reelection Airline job cuts loom in battleground states MORE (R-Texas) said Reid bears as much responsibility as anyone for Washington’s dysfunctional atmosphere.

“Can you think of anything more hypocritical? Consider the source,” he said.

Jordan Fabian and Scott Wong contributed.