With two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, every game matters for teams fighting for their playoff lives. However, this week’s games could impact some teams more than others, given their current playoff chances and Week 17 opponents.

Playoff leverage calculations from ESPN's Football Power Index help us break down which teams have the most to gain and lose this week in terms of making the postseason. There may be bigger games in terms of seeding and division winners, but the teams and games highlighted below are the ones that have the biggest impact on each team’s inclusion in the playoffs.

Before digging into the numbers, it’s important to understand how the charts below should be interpreted. The charts depict each team's conditional probability of making the playoffs based on the outcome of their game this week. The entire shaded area (and accompanying percentage) is a team’s “playoff leverage,” which is defined as the difference in playoff probability given a win or a loss.

AFC

ESPN Analytics

If the playoffs began today, the 9-5 Miami Dolphins would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but they are far from a lock to make the playoffs with two difficult games -- at Buffalo and versus New England -- remaining. If the Dolphins can beat the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, their chances of making the playoffs will rise from 45 percent to about 92 percent, according to FPI. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, FPI gives them a 25 percent chance to win in Buffalo and a 32 percent chance to beat the Patriots in Week 17.

The other game worth highlighting is the AFC North matchup between the 9-5 Pittsburgh Steelers and 8-6 Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a win, and Baltimore can increase its playoff chances from 27 percent to about 62 percent with a victory. The Ravens have won five of their past six games against the Steelers, but FPI favors the Steelers by seven points this time around.

NFC

ESPN Analytics

There are six NFC teams that currently have at least a two-in-three chance of making the playoffs, according to FPI, but that doesn’t mean all six teams will be in. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins are still in the playoff hunt, and both teams could swing the projections with a win.

The Bucs are the team with the most to gain this week. Their playoff chances would rise from 34 percent to about 77 percent with a win in New Orleans, but they would fall to about 14 percent with a loss. That swing is largely due to the fact that the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are set to meet in Week 17, so it guarantees a loss for one of the Bucs' wild-card rivals. FPI gives the New Orleans Saints a 69 percent chance to beat the Bucs and put a major dent in their playoff hopes.

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