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Tesla stock could rise 25% from current prices—but that doesn’t make it a buy, according to an analyst who warns a “wide range of complex events” could move the stock.

Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) has slid 46% in 2019 through Monday’s close. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reiterated an Equal Weight rating and a $230 price target, below FactSet’s roughly $286 average.

Jonas—who, you might recall, floated a $10-per-share worst-case scenario for the stock last month—sees “high levels of volatility between our $10 bear case and our $391 bull case.”

Read more: There’s a Scary Worst-Case Scenario Out There for Tesla Stock

Tesla’s shares have fallen this year amid ongoing concerns about demand for its vehicles, even as the company has sought to widen its product line and better serve international markets. First-quarter deliveries missed Wall Street’s targets. Elon Musk, however, has suggested reasons for optimism in the second quarter, though the company still isn’t expected to turn a profit.

”While we believe the current lull in demand may be transient and see a bridge to far stronger demand in 2020, we acknowledge that heightened concerns about global trade (specifically regarding China, upon which Tesla is increasingly dependent) may limit the market’s enthusiasm,” Jonas says.

Tesla recently began taking orders for cars built in China, where it is building a factory. As expected, the company set substantially lower prices on those vehicles than those exported from the U.S. Meanwhile, China-based competitor Nio (NIO) just released a challenging outlook for the quarters ahead.

Read more: Tesla Lost $702 Million Last Quarter and Says It Won’t Turn a Profit This Quarter

Jonas sees other sources of value in Tesla’s stock, among them the company’s autonomous driving technology. Tesla has said it could soon power a network of autonomous taxicabs, setting up a fresh revenue stream. Some observers think it could also license its technology to other manufacturers.

But “demand for Tesla’s cars is the most important fundamental driver [of] Tesla’s share price and financial condition,” Jonas wrote. “Tesla has significant strategic value that we believe can potentially be crystallized in ways that may challenge traditional [valuation] techniques,” such as those based on projected cash flows.

Email David Marino-Nachison at david.marino-nachison@barrons.com. Follow him at @marinonachison and follow Barron’s Next at @barronsnext.