So, the absurd GOP House Energy & Commerce Committee Report which claimed that only 67% of exchange QHP enrollees are paid up has been thoroughly demolished by not just myself, but pretty much every other legitimate news media outlet there is (which leaves out FOX News, I'm afraid). In addition to only running through 4/15 (when 38% of the total QHP payments weren't even due yet), it only counted 160 of the 300+ insurance providers on the ACA exchanges, among many other ludicrous methodological flaws.

However, something did just occur to me. Take another look at their state-by-state breakout (which, again, only includes states on the Federal exchange...and even then, leaves out Idaho and New Mexico for reasons unknown), and there's several states which I find rather interesting:

Arkansas: 88%

Kansas: 87%

New Jersey: 86%

South Dakota: 87%

Yup. That's correct: According to the Republican party's own "data" which they've been desperately trying to tout as "legitimate", 4 states--two of which (Kansas and South Dakota) are dark red politically--were already beating the "consensus" payment rate of around 85%...over 3 weeks ago.

Furthermore, if West Virginia could move from 73% paid (according to the GOP report) as of 4/15 up to a whopping 94% paid as of 5/01, it seems to me that Arkansas, Kansas, New Jersey and South Dakota, all of which were at 86% or higher as of 4/15 according to the GOP, should theoretically be into the mid-90's as well by this point. Not saying this is the case, of course...

Don't worry, Republicans: I'm not going to enter these 4 percentages into the spreadsheet for the same reason that I'm not entering the other 30 states on the GOP's report, since that would be cherry-picking...but I certainly find it amusing.

Meanwhile, I'm still sticking with my own target of 93% paid by the end of May (I've rolled back my estimates for states which haven't provided hard data to 90% for the moment, but will adjust accordingly as more data is released).

Now, having said all of this, this month-by-month breakout of Blue Cross Blue Shield payment rates actually does give me a bit of pause on whether my 93% estimate will hold true; it's possible that 90% will end up being a more reasonable overall average. But we'll have to wait until the end of the month to try and get a straight answer about that.