Somalia US Military

In this Thursday, March 30, 2017 file photo, new arrivals of Somalis displaced by the drought arrive at makeshift camps in the Tabelaha area on the outskirts of Mogadishu, Somalia. President Donald Trump's approval of greater U.S. military authority to pursue al-Qaida-linked extremists in Somalia will put civilians further at risk, experts say, especially as drought displaces thousands of people in areas that now will be considered a war zone.

(AP/Farah Abdi Warsameh)

Ali Mohamed is co-founder of the Horn of Africa Freedom Foundation

LEWIS CENTER, Ohio -- In January, The New York Times reported that the Donald Trump transition team had sent a four-page series of questions to the State Department about U.S. policy on Africa regarding foreign aid programs and U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

I did find the following question --"We've been fighting al-Shabaab for a decade, why haven't we won?" -- a reasonable one to ask the State Department and the Pentagon.

Al-Shabab is an al-Qaida-affiliated militant group battling the U.S.-backed, embattled Somali government. Al-Shabab has been waging deadly attacks in south Somalia and neighboring Kenya.

To counter the threat of al-Shabab, the Pentagon has been seeking to expand its military involvement in Somalia. And, on Wednesday, President Trump authorized the Pentagon's plan to escalate its anti-terror campaign against al-Shabab, including designating parts of Somalia an "area of active hostilities" for military targeting purposes for at least 180 days, according to the officials cited in a New York Times story.

This followed President Trump's request from the Pentagon for a comprehensive plan to defeat the Islamic State and al-Qaida-affiliated groups.

But the military operations can exacerbate the humanitarian crisis; currently millions of Somalis are on the brink of famine. There is a possibility of al-Shabab using civilian casualties as propaganda against America, which could further undermine U.S. interests in the region.

A Somali woman walks through a camp of people in Qardho, Somalia who have been displaced from their homes by drought. Somalia's government has declared the drought a national disaster, and the United Nations estimates that 5 million people in this Horn of Africa nation need aid, amid warnings of a full-blown famine.

The United States could be seen as dictating the political outcome of Somalia's multifaceted power struggle. The escalation of U.S. involvement would embolden the corrupt government in Mogadishu in the belief they would be able to rely on the U.S. Africa Command, created by the George W. Bush administration in 2008, to do their bidding.

Somalia's struggle against al-Shabab is not only a military one but a political one. Without any real political progress on the ground, or reliable local partner, the Pentagon's efforts to back African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops and the Somali Army, made up rival clan militias, in the campaign against al-Shabab would be futile.

In fact, there is little or no progress on the political front. Since 1993, under the auspices of the United Nations, the United States and other international partners, more than 18 political reconciliations for Somalia were held. None of those reconciliations have produced any credible or effective Somali government.

Instead, so-called governments dominated by one faction of Somalia's previous civil war have prevailed in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital -- where a culture of graft and impunity has thrived. To enrich themselves, political leaders there have used schemes such as issuing shady oil deals with foreign companies, siphoning money from foreign aid, and selling massive public lands to the private contractor, Bancroft Global Investments, which profits from troubled lands, without any transparency.

In February, the clan-based Somali parliament elected Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo as the new president of Somalia in an election marred by corruption and fraud. Somali investigators estimate close to $20 million in bribes from foreign countries were paid to members of the parliament for vote-buying, and some western diplomats called the election a milestone of corruption, according to The New York Times.

Today, 2.9 million Somalis are on the verge of facing a renewed famine, similar to the one that left nearly 260,000 people dead between 2010 and 2012, according to a 2013 report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.

The cause of the impending famine is drought, continued conflict between AMISOM and al-Shabab, and bad governance and corruption. Clan-driven violence and road blocks manned by government soldiers asking for extortion money from aid workers have been impeding relief efforts and commercial goods throughout south-central Somalia.

Moreover, America's options in Somalia are very limited. The fight against al-Shabab and the future course of Somalia (south Somalia) depend on whether entrenched, rival clans and warlords in Mogadishu work with Mohamed Farmajo's government, and choose the path of peace.

Before funneling more money, weapons and air support to the feckless Somali government, the Trump administration should reassess U.S. policy on Somalia, and should not treat Somalia as one entity, which is no longer the case.

In fact, since 1991, the four million Somaliland people have established, through painstaking reconciliations, a stable, although not perfect, functioning state -- the Republic of Somaliland. In 2001, the will of the Somaliland people was supported through a referendum.

Ultimately, a political process for Somalia's warring clans to work and live in peace is the only way to establish effective governance, defeat extremism, and for a free and prosperous Somali society to emerge. But for that process, "The Somalis must do that for themselves," as former President Bill Clinton said in a speech to the American people in 1993, after the "Black Hawk Down" tragedy.

For the sake of Somalis, and America, we must let Somalis fight for and decide their futures, including recognizing Somaliland's transformation into a stable nation in the volatile Horn of Africa region.

The alternative would mean denying Somaliland diplomatic recognition, more suffering for the beleaguered Somalis, and total annexation of Somalia by its neighboring states.

Ali Mohamed is co-founder of the Horn of Africa Freedom Foundation based in Lewis Center, Ohio, outside Columbus.

To reach Ali Mohamed: aliadm18@gmail.com

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