The Situation

Hungary is close to becoming the EU’s first dictatorship. Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister, has spent the last 10 years consolidating his power, and took his biggest step yet amid the coronavirus outbreak. As of the 11th of March, Hungary is in a permanent state of emergency. This gives Orban the power to suspend Parliament and elections indefinitely, rule by decree, and imprison people for ‘spreading misinformation’. He has spent the last 10 years chipping away at the independence of the courts and the media, and today he controls much of the judicial system. Much of Hungarian media is controlled by the Central European Press and Media Foundation, which is run by Orban’s close allies.

Orban has followed the playbook of how to become a dictator; he has used a crisis to convince the public he needs total control, and has used his new powers to suspend democracy and resistance. Opposition to Orban, while present, is small and divided, holding just 65 out of 199 seats, and the largest opposition party, Jobbik, is no less authoritarian than Orban himself. Whilst technically the Hungarian Parliament can end the state of emergency at any time, Fidesz, Orban’s party, has a 2/3 majority and no reason to end it. The Socialist party, previously the largest opposition to Orban, has fallen into irrelevancy, holding just 20/199 seats in Parliament.

The Hungarian Parliament Building

How did we get here?

Fidesz was initially founded in 1988, as a liberal, anti-communist youth party, but has shifted towards right-wing populism under Orban’s control. Fidesz first took power in 1988, and then again in 2010, 2014, and 2018. Currently, the party’s supermajority is part of a coalition with the Christian Democratic People’s party (KDNP), which is essentially a satellite party of Fidesz, having voted with it on all major reforms.

Until recently, the main opposition to Fidesz was the Hungarian Socialist party, which won the 2002 and 2006 elections. It lost in a landslide to the Fidesz-KDNP alliance in 2010, which won 263/386 seats in the Parliament. This was due to mass dissatisfaction with its handling of the Financial Crisis and the leaked Oszod (Autumn) speech of the then Prime-Minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany. In this speech, Ferenc admitted that his party had “screwed up” Hungary, had “obviously lied” to Hungarians, and that, in four years, they “did not actually do anything. Nothing”. The Socialist party has only become weaker since 2010. Today, it is not even the largest opposition party in Hungary — that title goes to Jobbik, a far-right, authoritarian party that holds 23 seats in Parliament.

Orban’s has maintained his popularity since 2010 due to the strong economic recovery of Hungary under him, his Hungarian nationalist message, and the weakness of his opposition. This popularity is seen in his re-election margins. In 2014, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance won 130 out of the Parliament’s (newly-altered) 199 seats. In 2018, Orban won again — Fidesz-KDNP now hold 133/199 seats in Parliament, and their share of the popular vote increased by 4.4% to just under 50%. Under Orban, unemployment dropped from 11.4% to just 3.8% as of 2018, thanks in part due to his massive government ‘workfare’ project, which uses government funds to secure jobs for the unemployed. Hundreds of thousands of Hungarians have taken advantage of this program under Orban. He has also made good use of EU money to boost the Hungarian economy — around 4% of the Hungarian GDP is based on EU funds. Fiscally, the government is in a better position as well — credit ratings have improved whilst the budget deficit and debt-to GDP ratio has fallen. Hungarian workers have seen their wages rise 10% since 2010, way above the inflation, further boosting the popularity of ‘Orbanomics’.

Orban and The Judicial System

A crucial aspect of Hungary’s democratic backslide is Orban’s destruction of the independent judicial system. Orban has been interfering in the court system since coming to power, but in 2018 his control of it reached a new level. The Minister of Justice, Judit Varga, is a long-time friend of Orban. The courts mostly are controlled by Orban and his allies, allowing him to ram through any reforms he wishes with little judicial pushback. The Constitutional Court of Hungary has also been filled with Orban loyalists, allowing Orban to implement policies that the EU and US both say “threaten Hungarian democracy”.

Many judges on the National Judicial Council, the body responsible for supervising Hungarian courts, were pressured into resignation by Orban after his 2018 victory, according to a New York Times report from 1 May 2018. The way that appointments to the National Judicial Council are made has also changed — before Orban, judges were chosen by an independent council. Whilst in theory they are still appointed by this council, Orban’s ally and President of the National Judicial Office, Ms Hando, can reject the choice of the independent council and appoint her own judges. Patrick Kingsley, a New York Times writer, says “suspicions have been raised” that Hando has used her powers as President to threaten judges with disciplinary procedures if they step out of line, as well as reward judges with promotions and extra funding for ruling ‘correctly’.

As it stands now, Orban and his allies essentially control the Constitutional Court and National Judicial Council. Little judicial independence truly remains in Hungary, and this, combined with his control of Parliament and the Executive, has allowed Orban to crush the Hungarian liberal democracy one step at a time, turning it into what Orban likes to call an “illiberal democracy”.

Orban and the Media

Unsurprisingly, the Hungarian media is also now firmly under Orban’s control. He has changed how media is regulated and taken more power over state-owned media outlets. In 2010, Orban introduced a law that allows the government to fine journalists whose coverage they deemed “unbalanced”, essentially forcing journalists into line and making sure they all reported the same news.

Simultaneously, Orban has consolidated over 500 Hungarian news networks into the Central European Press and Media Foundation, which is run by his close ally Gabor Liszkay. After Orban’s 2018 re-election, many private media outlets were ‘donated’ or transferred to the control of the CEPMF. These outlets had previously been bought up or founded by rich, pro-Orban businessmen.

Orban

In a free, liberal society, the media acts as another check on the government, reporting on scandals like corruption and collusion. In Orban’s illiberal democracy, media outlets are to be pro-Orban, or else they will be starved of government advertising revenue and risk their journalists being fined. A study by the media monitor Mertek from 2 May 2019 shows that almost 78% of the media are pro-government, News sources that work for Orban get rewarded. An example of this is Origo. Origo is a news website that has turned into one of the largest pro-Orban outlets in Hungary, but was previously critical of Orban in many instances, reporting on a 2014 corruption scandal. Prior to its (partially government-funded) sale to New Wave, a pro-Orban company, Origo was financially weak. Since its sale — and its pro-Orban reports — it has seen its earnings rise, bolstered by government advertising revenues. This theme recurs in other independent media outlets — they struggle financially due to lack of advertising revenue, get bought up by pro-Orban groups, and suddenly become rich thanks to government advertisement money.

Hungary’s Future

Hungary today is a very different place from what it was 10 years ago before Orban. Orban controls the courts, much of the media, and now has the power to rule by decree. Any opposition to Orban will face a massive uphill battle in the next Hungarian elections — first, they have to unite and convince the public that they would be better off under someone other than Orban. This is a difficult task when Hungarians are enjoying high levels of economic prosperity, a newly-revived of Hungarian identity powered by Orban’s nationalism, and a lack of appealing parties. They will also have to deal with the possibility of Orban rigging the election — Unhack Democracy, a non-profit human rights group, has claimed there was wide-scale voter fraud in Hungary’s 2018 election, with “major malpractice” taking place. With all these factors and just 2 years left until the next elections, it seems likely Orban will remain in power for years to come.