With the government shorn of its majority, and the Brexit deadline looming, the odds of an imminent election have dramatically reduced. So it’s worth examining the current state of the parties in the polls. What’s important to bear in mind, of course, is that polling provides a snapshot of public opinion at the time the poll is taken, and we are currently living in a highly volatile political situation.

It’s possible that people’s minds will change when faced with the reality of an actual general election, and the parties experience the pressures of the campaign, as we saw in 2017. Not only that, but it’s very difficult to say precisely where the election will be fought and won. The key battlegrounds may not be the easily identifiable marginal seats where results were decided in the past.

First, the context. The Conservatives have seen a clear boost since Boris Johnson became prime minister, and his lead over Jeremy Corbyn in public opinion remains one of their strongest assets. But other measures are less favourable. Despite its boost in voting intentions, satisfaction with the way the government is running the country has remained low – indeed, with 75% dissatisfied, it was the worst first-month rating we at Ipsos Mori had ever seen. Economic optimism is also low, and for a year now a majority have been expecting the economy to get worse.

Brexit is perceived as the number one issue facing the country. Here, although Johnson’s ratings are not particularly strong overall, he seems to be doing well at reaching out to his core supporters. According to our snap poll last week, only a minority are satisfied with his handling of Brexit, but that includes a majority of those who voted Conservative in 2017 or leave in 2016. Less than half as many are satisfied with Corbyn’s handling of Brexit, and only a minority of Labour voters. Britain remains deeply divided on the issue, and beyond the prime minister’s core support there is little appetite for leaving the EU without a deal.

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Nationally, the Conservatives are strongest among those aged 65 or older (remember, older people are more likely to vote than younger people), people who own their own home outright, people without formal qualifications, and leave supporters (of course, these groups are all interlinked). There are signs that Johnson has energised his base, reversing the decline that was happening under Theresa May (in her last months around six in 10 2017 Conservative supporters said they would still vote Conservative, but in Johnson’s first month this had risen to eight in 10). However, some votes are still being lost to both the Brexit party and the Liberal Democrats – a larger number than the 2015 Tory votes May lost in the 2017 election.

Labour’s strongest demographics are the under-35s, public-sector workers and renters. It does better among remain groups than leave groups – and even better among those who did not vote in the 2016 referendum (reflecting its younger age profile). Labour is losing less of its 2017 vote to the Brexit party than the Conservatives, but is suffering more when it comes to the Lib Dems and the Greens – about a quarter of its 2017 vote has switched to one of those more unambiguously pro-remain parties.

Looking at the other parties, the resurgent Lib Dems are clearly doing best among the graduate middle classes, vying with Labour for the remain-supporting vote. The Brexit party, on the other hand, does better among men, older voters, social classes C2DE (working class and non-working people) and non-graduates. Although polling in Scotland and Wales is less regular, the most recent data suggests the SNP continues to be strong in Scotland, while the Conservatives and Labour struggle. In Wales, the latest poll had Labour at historic lows, with the Conservatives seeing an improvement after Johnson’s appointment (albeit still below 2017 results), and the Brexit party, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems all doing better.

Despite all this data, predicting who will win the most seats in a general election is very difficult. Ipsos’s experience around the world suggests that elections are more unpredictable when there are sudden changes in party support, when there are new parties, and when turnout is different among different groups – all of which are likely to apply here. Clearly the factors mentioned above, such as age, education levels, leave/remain vote and previous party support, will be important but they may not explain everything. Then of course there may be specific local factors, such as deselected or defecting MPs standing against their former party (or even just not running, so losing the incumbency factor), parties running or not running in particular constituencies (perhaps due to electoral pacts), and so on.

In general, the patterns of political geography are changing – not least because attitudes to Brexit cut completely across the familiar Conservative-v-Labour divisions. This had already begun in 2017. A few years ago it would have seemed ridiculous to consider Copeland or Mansfield even as Conservative targets. Now the Conservatives are defending both; and Labour is defending Canterbury and Kensington. Just taking the Lib Dems as an example, should they concentrate on those constituencies such as in the south-west where they used to have MPs until 2015? Or given that many of those had relatively low remain votes, would they have better chances of winning seats in strongly remain areas in and around London? Polling techniques have become much more sophisticated to help focus on the key factors and areas that may change hands, but the volatility of the current situation means that few predictions at this stage can be completely confident about what will happen when Britain finally votes.

Britons are divided in their support for a new general election, as they are on much else – Labour and remain voters are more in favour, Conservative and leave voters more against. But while the parties may know where their key support comes from, none can be certain what the final outcome would be.

• Gideon Skinner is head of political research at Ipsos Mori