The Muslim community has solidly rallied with RJD-Congress alliance without paying much attention to the fate of Nitish Kumar.

Janata Dal(U) activists in Bihar are a worried lot. The feedback from Nalanda Parliamentary constituency, home turf of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is not helping lift their morale. Prospects in another prestige seat, Madhepura, where party president Sharad Yadav is in the fray, is practically doomed.

The decision of its high profile nominee Akhtarul Imam to withdraw from the race in Kishanganj, which has the largest numbers of Muslim voters in the country, was a body blow to its aim to position itself as the champion of the community -- and as the primary opponent to Narendra Modi in the state.

The ruling party in Bihar, which won 20 Lok Sabha seats in last elections, has suddenly been reduced to a fringe player in these elections. The number of votes that the party will get in most constituencies will not decide whether JD(U) will win or lose but will instead determine the fate of the BJP or RJD candidates.

Patliputra offers one such classic case. In a closely contested contest, fate of RJD chief Lalu Yadav’s daughter Misa and her BJP challenger Ramkripal Yadav will be decided by how many votes the sitting JD(U) MP Ranjan Yadav gets. He is not slated to win but could play spoiler to BJP's chances if he gets decent numbers. In another constituency, Chapra where a high profile battle is on between Rabri Devi and BJP general secretary Rajiv Pratap Singh Rudi, the JD(U) could play spoiler to RJD if its candidate Salim Parvez is able to get decent numbers.

Only nine months ago, Nitish Kumar had termed his unilateral severance of ties with the BJP as the “politics of principles. He had claimed that he could sacrifice anything, suffer any loss to uphold his so called secular values.

But those were different times. Nitish was hailed as the new messiah of secular politics, obvious potential prime ministerial nominee of an alternate Third, Federal or Fourth front. The fact that he remained chief minister even after summarily throwing BJP out of his government gave him a certain buoyancy and persuaded many political observers that he was the man to give Narendra Modi a run for his money.

But that gambit has clearly failed. Narendra Modi has virtually become a household name and RJD Lalu Yadav his effective challenger in Bihar. The Muslim community has solidly rallied with RJD-Congress alliance without paying much attention to the fate of Nitish Kumar.

The two phases of polling in Bihar have been completed and there are few signs of rallying support for the Chief Minister's party. The most common explanation that Nitish backers offer to query why JD(U) supporters are not seen or heard in good numbers is that in contrast to boisterous BJP or RJD supporters, the JD(U) supporters are from extremely backward caste groups, Mahadalits and Kurmi community who will not talk but vote. But then it is also a fact that because of various local equations at village or kasba level, the voters from socially and economically weaker sections mostly vote for a particular candidate in line with the dominant caste or community of that area.

The BJP with its upper caste support base is competing hard for votes of these communities. Ramvilas Paswan’s alignment with the BJP has added to a substantive section of Dalit votes to its kitty. As with UP, BJP is hoping that sections of dalit voters will join the Modi fold as part of a broader Hindutava cause. And by giving seven seats to Paswan and three to Upendra Kushwaha, the BJP sent out a message that it cares for its allies. Nitish or Lalu didn’t have an effective counter to that.

Ironically, Nitish may as well blame himself for building up Modi in Bihar. It was his obstinate opposition to the Gujarat CM which made the latter an object of great curiosity and subsequently helped add to his charisma.

Modi on his part has so far held eight rallies in the state and is holding two others today in Katihar and Supaul. He will come to here after finishing four rallies in Assam earlier in the day. In contrast Rahul Gandhi has addressed two rallies and Sonia is expected to do one, possibly in Muzaffarpur. The Congress’s central party in-charge for Bihar CP Joshi has not visited here once. Joshi was earlier busy with the Rajasthan assembly election and then with his own election, said a senior party leader. The ad-hoc replacement Stayavrata Chaturvedi also hasn't shown any real enthusiasm for the job.

The situation has come to such a pass that Congress leaders are now desperately trying to rope in Nagma to boost their campaign, after Raj Babbar declined to do the same, citing campaign duties. The Congress’s only hope is Lalu Yadav and his ability to transfer his Yadav plus Muslim votes to its partner.

Bihar has always proved lucky for BJP’s politics at the centre. But this is for the first time when it is going into the fray primarily on its own strength, with two junior partners. If the Modi wave sweeps Bihar, the victory will be all the more sweeter as it will come at the expense of the two icons of “secular” politics, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav.