SANTA CRUZ — The number of Santa Cruz County coronavirus patients requiring intensive care is likely to grow beyond local hospitals’ surge capacity, according to the county’s deputy health officer.

“It’s not a matter of if, but when,” said Dr. David Ghilarducci, the county’s deputy public health officer, on Thursday.

Santa Cruz County’s hospitals typically have capacity for 25 intensive-care beds, according to local health officials. Their surge capacity is twice that, or 50 beds.

Current projections show that capacity could be exceeded by late April or mid-May, Ghilarducci said.

According to a ProPublica analysis, Santa Cruz County may need a total of 150 intensive-care beds over the next 12 months — three times its current surge capacity.

Ghilarducci was unable to predict the number of beds that may be needed. “But it’s larger than 50, I can tell you that,” he said.

Ghilarducci is overseeing the development of alternate-care sites, including one announced site at Simpkins Swim Center likely to be used as a “step-down” facility for patients to continue their recovery after leaving local hospitals. He spoke at a Thursday news conference alongside county Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel and county Health Services Director Mimi Hall.

According to Hall, the number of intensive-care beds available in Santa Cruz County reflects typical medical need, and should be understood in that context.

“When there’s no pandemic, there’s no reason to have 50 plus ICU beds,” Hall said. “And so our healthcare system has the capacity to expand, and they’ve made plans to expand. So that’s an important thing to keep in mind when looking at those numbers.”

Santa Cruz County had 57 confirmed coronavirus cases as of Thursday, including its first pediatric case involving a minor. One resident died from the virus Saturday, marking the county’s first death.

Shelter in place

On Tuesday night, Santa Cruz County followed six Bay Area counties in extending and adding further restrictions to its shelter-in-place order.

The local order, in effect through May 3, is more lenient in some respects than that of the Bay Area counties. It allows more kinds of recreational facilities to remain open, as long as residents abide by social-distancing requirements and don’t share equipment with anyone from outside of their household.

And where businesses in the six Bay Area counties are required to develop and post social-distancing requirements, Santa Cruz County is encouraging its local businesses to do the same.

Parks and beaches in Santa Cruz County haven’t seen the same level of crowding as elsewhere in California, according to Newel. But she warned Thursday that she will further restrict the shelter-in-place order if needed.

“It’s so important to note that if we do experience crowding, and people not following the social-distance requirements, I will close the parks and beaches,” Newel said. “And at this point, I’m hoping that we continue to have good voluntary compliance, so that I don’t have to do that.”

Face coverings

As is the case elsewhere in California and other hard-hit areas of the nation, health officials’ response to the pandemic is evolving almost daily as more data becomes available and best-practices are developed and shared.

Wearing face coverings in public — such as bandanas and other non-medical grade masks — is now encouraged by Newel, the county’s health officer. The recommendation is based on new guidance from the California Department of Public Health.

But residents not involved in health care should not be wearing medical-grade masks, which are in high demand at hospitals across the nation, Newel emphasized.

It’s “very, very important that we preserve our mask supplies, and all of our personal protective equipment supplies for our healthcare workers,” she said.

Those with medical-grade masks and other personal-protective equipment are encouraged to donate their gear to local providers. A donation form is available online at santacruzhealth.org/ppedonate.

For more information on the shelter-in-place order and additional demographics of confirmed cases, see santacruzhealth.org/coronavirus.