Early numbers show Senate Democrats raising big sums for midterm battles

Fredreka Schouten | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption These 12 races could shake up the Senate All eyes will be on the U.S. Senate in 2018 with several key seats up for grabs in the midterm elections.

WASHINGTON — Some of the Senate’s most endangered Democrats are stockpiling huge sums of campaign cash for what could be their party’s hardest-fought Senate election in generations.

Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, seeking a third term in a state President Trump won by 19 percentage points, raised nearly $2.9 million during the final three months of last year and started 2018 with more than $9 million in available cash in the bank, according to totals released by her campaign.

Another top target for Republicans in November, Ohio’s Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, had even larger cash reserves: $9.8 million, according to campaign officials. In Wisconsin, first-term Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin brought in more than $2.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The early fundraising reports come amid growing Republican alarm about November’s midterms and the prospect of a Democratic wave sweeping the GOP out of the majority in Congress. The president’s party typically loses ground in midterm congressional elections. But Trump’s approval ratings sit at historic lows, and big GOP primary battles still loom in states such as Indiana and Arizona.

At the same time, Republican leaders have struggled to recruit top-tier candidates to take on sitting Democrats. On Tuesday, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, considered a strong Senate contender by GOP donors, announced he would not compete in this year's special election for a Democratic seat in his home state. Last week, Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., declined to challenge his state’s Democratic senator, Heidi Heitkamp, despite entreaties from top Republicans to enter the race.

Democrats need to pick up just two seats to seize the majority in the 100-seat Senate, and their best opportunities might come from Arizona, where there's an open Senate seat, and Nevada, where Sen. Dean Heller is the only Republican up for reelection this year from a state won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

But Democrats face a brutal Senate map this year.

They are defending 26 seats — including a special election in Minnesota to complete former Sen. Al Franken’s term — compared with Republicans’ eight seats. Ten of the Democrats up for reelection represent states won by Trump in 2016.

“It may be the worst Senate map that any party has faced ever or at least since direct election of senators began in 1913,” Nate Silver wrote recently in FiveThirtyEight, a website that uses statistical analysis to examine politics, sports and other subjects.

“Even if Democrats were to be successful and win the majority, it’s not going to be much of one,” Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, told USA TODAY. “Maybe they get to 51, but they are not going to do better than that.”

More: Midterm madness: Five things to watch in the 2018 battle to control Congress

More: These 12 races will be key to who controls the Senate after the 2018 midterms

Detailed reports on fundraising must be filed with the Senate by month’s end, and only a smattering of figures are now publicly available. But the early numbers show incumbents and Democratic challengers racing to build big cash reserves for the expensive battles ahead.

Nine Senate Democrats up in 2018 had reported starting this election year with at least $7 million in available funds, according to figures publicly available as of Tuesday afternoon.

They'll need every dollar.

In 2016, the top two candidates in Florida — that year's most expensive Senate race — spent a combined $40.8 million, according to data compiled by the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics. Big money super PACs are lining up to aid Republicans in key states such as Wisconsin and Missouri, where outside groups are rallying behind Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley in his challenge to McCaskill.

Some early totals:

► In Michigan, three-term Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s campaign said she raised about $1.9 million during the fourth quarter of 2017 and started 2018 with roughly $8 million in available cash.

Businessman Sandy Pensler, who entered the race for the GOP nomination last November, announced recently that he’s putting $5 million of his own money into the Senate race. His campaign did not disclose how much money he raised from other sources or the size of his cash reserves, and two other Republicans seeking the nomination have not yet released their fundraising totals.

► In Wisconsin, Baldwin’s campaign aides say she started 2018 with $7 million in cash reserves. Her $2.8 million haul in the fourth quarter of 2017 far outpaces the amounts collected by the Republicans vying for the chance to face her in November. Kevin Nicholson, a management consultant and Marine veteran, seeking the GOP nomination, has raised about $800,000 in the final fundraising quarter, his campaign reported. Leah Vukmir, a veteran state senator running against Nicholson in the August primary, has raised about $400,000 in the same period.

Despite Baldwin’s financial advantage, the spending by outside Republican groups to target the first-term Democrat is soaring and already exceeded $3 million by the end of last year. Baldwin is one of 10 Democrats up for reelection in a Trump-won state.

► In Florida, a swing state narrowly captured by Trump, Sen. Bill Nelson reported raising $2.4 million during the last three months of 2017. His campaign said he had $8 million in available cash.

Nelson, who is seeking a fourth term, could face Florida Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican able to pour millions of his own money into the contest. Scott hasn’t declared that he is running.

► In Pennsylvania, two-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey raised $2.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 and still had $8.6 million on hand for the race ahead.

By contrast, Republican Rep. Lou Barletta, a Trump ally who entered the Pennsylvania Senate race four months ago, raised about $1 million. He had more than $1 million in available cash.

In Arizona, both parties are gearing up for a fierce battle for the seat left open by Republican Sen. Jeff Flake’s retirement. Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has reported raising $1.6 million during the last three months of the year and has more than $5.1 million remaining in the bank, her campaign said.

Meanwhile, an intense primary is shaping up among Arizona Republicans.

Rep. Martha McSally, a GOP establishment favorite who formally entered the nomination contest last week, raised more than $1 million in the fourth quarter for her House campaign and has more than $1.8 million cash on hand. (Federal rules allow McSally to transfer the funds from her House fundraising account to her Senate campaign.)

One of her leading GOP rivals, former state senator Kelli Ward, has not yet released fundraising figures. A third Republican contender for the seat, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, did not announce his Senate bid until earlier this month.

In Nevada, another state where Democrats hope to flip a Republican-held seat, Democrat Rep.Jacky Rosen said Tuesday that she had collected $1.56 million in her bid to compete against Heller. She started this year with more than $1.8 million in reserved cash.

Fundraising figures were not available Tuesday for Heller or his conservative primary challenger, Danny Tarkanian.

Several other endangered Democrats had not released fundraising totals as of Tuesday afternoon, including Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, whose state backed Trump by more than 42 percentage points.

Campaign officials in both parties say they'll have the upper hand in November.

Democrats are facing a challenging landscape, said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, but he argued that Republicans must contend with "expensive and divisive primaries and an electorate that is repulsed by their agenda" on health care and taxes.

Bob Salera, a spokesman for the Senate Republicans' campaign arm, said GOP candidates "are laying the groundwork to have strong, well-funded campaigns this fall that will hold Democrats accountable for their record of obstruction in Washington."