Rebekah L. Sanders

The Republic | azcentral.com

The Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll shows Penzone ahead

More than half of respondents had unfavorable opinion of Arpaio

After 23 years in office, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is trailing Democratic challenger Paul Penzone by nearly 15 points in the results of a new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll.

The poll was conducted Oct. 10-15 as news broke that federal prosecutors would file a criminal contempt charge against Arpaio in a racial-profiling case. Penzone has led most polls shared publicly in the race so far but by smaller margins.

Arpaio's campaign criticized the survey and published its own showing Arpaio, a Republican, up by almost 8 points.

The Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll found support for Penzone at 45.9 percent compared with Arpaio's 31.1 percent among the 466 Maricopa County registered voters surveyed. About a fifth of respondents were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.6 points.

When undecided voters were asked which way they were leaning, Penzone led by close to 13 points.

The poll also indicated that more men support Penzone than women, 52.2 percent to 39.7 percent, potentially as a result of Arpaio's television ads attacking Penzone over protective orders he and his wife filed against each other during a domestic dispute.

Respondents were also asked to describe their opinion of Arpaio, along with other politicians. Of respondents, 53.3 percentsaid they viewed Arpaio unfavorably or very unfavorably. That's slightly down from an August survey by the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News that found total unfavorables for Arpaio at 57.3 percent. Neither poll asked voters for their opinion of Penzone.

A large gap in the polling raises the possibility that Arpaio, after six terms in office, could lose his position. Still, the sheriff continues to have name recognition that would be the envy of many politicians, and his campaign has amassed a $1.2 million fund — four times Penzone’s — that will allow it to continue to push Arpaio’s message hard through Election Day.

Voters weigh in

Jeremy Nolt, a 24-year-old Republican supporter of Arpaio, said he thinks more voters will show up at the ballot box than tell pollsters that they support the sheriff and GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

"A lot of people are hesitant to support Sheriff Joe even by phone because of his so-called controversial tactics," said Nolt, a Trump volunteer from Mesa. "I think you'll see a lot of closet voters come out on Election Day and vote for him. I have confidence that he will win."

Nolt applauded Arpaio for seeking to enforce immigration laws, creating Tent City to hold prisoners outdoors at a lower cost and continuing to support Trump, even as other Republicans jumped ship. Nolt said he also believes the federal cases against Arpaio are politically motivated by a Democratic administration, noting the criminal contempt charge was filed as early ballots went out.

"I think there are a lot of forces against him," Nolt said.

Kathy Bezon, a 71-year-old Ahwatukee independent, said she already sent in her ballot for Penzone.

"We need a new direction. We need a better way of dealing with the responsibilities of the sheriff's department," she said. "I think he would come in and do things differently."

Bezon called on Arpaio to let go of federal issues like immigration and focus on local problems such as the rape-kit backlog. She also praised Penzone's law-enforcement experience as a former Phoenix police sergeant. She discounted the attack ad on him as not credible "once I heard all the facts."

"It was just a way of slamming the other person, much like Trump," she said.

Poll: Clinton up 5 points over Trump in Arizona

Conflicting surveys

Arpaio campaign spokesman Chad Willems cast doubt on the quality of the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News survey.

He said it included too many Democrats and too few independents and did not require respondents to have participated in past elections.

Eric Hedberg, the pollster for the survey, said all respondents reported they were likely to vote Nov. 8. Their answers were weighted to reflect the demographic breakdown of registered Maricopa County voters, he added.

Willems released a poll commissioned by Arpaio's campaign, which he said better reflected anticipated partisan turnout. That poll indicated the sheriff was leading Penzone 49.5 percent to 42.0 percent.

The campaign's poll conducted by Conquest Communications reached 400 likely general election voters who voted in at least two of the past three general elections. It was conducted from Oct. 16-18 and included a 30 percent sample of cellphones. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 points.

"These results showing Sheriff Joe winning this race is consistent with what we have seen all along," said Willems, who previously has said the campaign expects a close race. "These numbers stand in stark contrast from both our opponent's propaganda and what certain media organizations have been touting.

"The only logical conclusion is The Arizona Republic set out to do a survey in Maricopa County and 'missed' and that Sheriff Arpaio is doing relatively well in the city of San Francisco," Willems said.

Stacy Pearson, spokeswoman for the Penzone campaign, said the results of the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll reflected "the overwhelming, bipartisan support the campaign is receiving."

About the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll

Republic reporter Kelcie Grega contributed to this article.