Conservatives, Liberals tied, NDP falls back

Conservative minority, Liberal opposition seen

TORONTO September 23rd, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1557 Canadian voters, exactly equal proportions, about 3-in-10, will vote either for the Conservatives or the Liberals in the upcoming election (31% each). The NDP fall slightly behind the two leading parties (28%). This is in contrast to earlier this week, when the Conservatives led and the two other parties tied (September 20, Conservative - 33%, Liberal and NDP, -29% each). Few will vote Green or Bloc Quebecois (4%) or for other parties (1%).





Conservative minority, Liberal opposition seen

If these results are projected up to the newly distributed 338 seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would win a slim minority of 125 seats, 45 fewer than required for a majority, while the Liberals would form the opposition with 107 seats and the NDP very close behind with 104. The Green Party would seat their leader and the Bloc would seat one member.

Conservatives most fervent partisans, NDP, Liberals less so

Close to three quarters of Conservative voters are strong supporters of their party (73%), while just more than half of Liberals (58%) and New Democrats are (55%). This is explained by the relatively loose bonds these voters have with their parties; close to one fifth of 2011 Liberal voters will support the NDP this time (18%) while a similar number of past New Democrats will vote Liberal (22%).

Both Conservatives and Liberals expected to win

Conservatives (29%) and Liberals (27%) are relatively equally likely to be seen as the eventual victors, with the NDP close behind (25%).

Trudeau, Harper, Mulcair tied for best PM

One quarter each see Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (25%) each), while Tom Mulcair, who has led this measure recently, is tied with these two (24%).

Trudeau, Mulcair see favourables up

Tom Mulcair has seen his approval increase from just more than 4-in-10 (September 20 - 42%) to closer to half now (46%), while Justin Trudeau has also seen an increase (from 43% to 48%). Stephen Harper’s approval has stayed stable at 3-in10 (31% now, 32% last Monday).

6-in-10 say government must change

While more than half say the government “has done a bad job and shouldn’t be re-elected" (49%) and a further tenth say the government “has done a good job but it’s time to give someone else a chance” (12%), and this makes a total of more than 6-in-10 who see a need for a change in government (61%), just one fifth say the government has “done a good job and should be re-elected” (21%) or that it has “done a bad job but it’s better than the alternatives” (8%) for a total of about 3-in-10 who don’t see a need to change the government (29%). This is significant in that it is thought that a government must score at about a total of 40% on the re-election option in order to be re-elected.

“It may be that the NDP have had their day in the sun, and it’s time for a new leader in this incredibly tight race. While the Prime Minister fares no worse than he or his party have recently, both Mulcair and Trudeau outdo their parties in approval, and Justin particularly is showing some momentum, as are the Liberals, after being the cellar dwellers in the race," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.