In a move that could influence this year’s winners, the Grammys expanded its voting pool last year, adding 900 new members in a welcome effort to increase diversity. At the same time, the Recording Academy boosted the number of nominees in the Grammys’ Big Four categories—Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist—to eight from the traditional five. Echoing a similar tweak by the Oscars nearly a decade ago, the supercharged slate of nominees resulted in some refreshing surprises when the nods were announced. Women surged forward, with Cardi B, Kacey Musgraves, Brandi Carlile, Janelle Monáe, H.E.R., Jorja Smith, and more receiving major recognition. (Keep in mind: The overall percentage of female nominees was only 16.4 percent, but that is double what it was last year.) And though Kendrick Lamar and Drake are 2019’s leading nominees, with eight and seven nods respectively, the Big Four had no room for many other big names, like Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, Beyoncé, JAY-Z, and Kanye West.

While it might be a year to expect the unexpected, there are still some nominees who seem more likely than others. Here’s our breakdown of who will win and who should win in several key categories at the 2019 Grammys, airing this Sunday at 8 p.m. on CBS.

Album of the Year

H.E.R. - H.E.R.

Brandi Carlile - By the Way, I Forgive You

Drake - Scorpion

Various Artists - Black Panther: The Album

Kacey Musgraves - Golden Hour

Post Malone - Beerbongs & Bentleys

Cardi B - Invasion of Privacy

Janelle Monáe - Dirty Computer

Will Win: Golden Hour

Should Win: Invasion of Privacy

As a decidedly mainstream award, the Grammys make the most sense when they go to works that dominated the culture at large in the previous year—and, ideally, didn’t suck. For as much fun as it was when Album of the Year went to Arcade Fire in 2011, the Grammys’ track record with less commercially successful picks has tended toward extremely belated acknowledgements (take Steely Dan in 2001, Herbie Hancock in 2008, or Beck in 2015). By that logic, Cardi B’s Invasion of Privacy—which didn’t just command the zeitgeist in 2018, but also was more thoughtfully crafted than it had any commercial imperative to be—should be a shoo-in.

Bardi would be wise not to clear off AOTY-trophy mantel space just yet, though. With eight nominees, the potential for vote-splitting is huge, and fellow rap blockbusters Scorpion and Black Panther also have legitimate claims. Dirty Computer wasn’t as good as Monáe’s previous work, but she’s overdue some serious accolades—or will her R&B-inclined voters gravitate toward the young underdog H.E.R.? The Grammys being the Grammys (and thus designed to infuriate at least some portion of viewers), rewarding the SoundCloud-era success of Post Malone isn’t even out of the question. Americana singer-songwriter Carlile’s six-nod coup is one of the year’s feel-good Grammy stories, and if she runs the table in other categories, it’ll be hard to root against her here, especially given her genre’s strength in a longer format. But Musgraves is a known quantity to Grammys voters, with two wins on several prior nominations, and Golden Hour was a real triumph of her songwriting talents (though admittedly a fairly modest country seller). Don’t be shocked if it triumphs on Grammy night, too. –Marc Hogan

Record of the Year