In this approach, Mr. Sanders wins a smashing victory in the satellite caucuses reporting so far. He wins 21.8 state delegates to a mere 1.2 for Mr. Buttigieg, narrowing Mr. Buttigieg’s lead by a full percentage point.

But the Iowa Delegate Selection Plan to the Democratic National Committee, the exhaustive and official 78-page rule book that The New York Times used for its election night forecasting model, appears to allot state delegates by satellite caucus differently.

The delegate selection plan first awards state delegates to the satellite caucuses as a whole, but does not apportion them to individual precincts. In a subsequent section, it then appears to allocate state delegates to individual precincts based on county delegates:

“The relative strength of each viable preference group within an in-person satellite caucus will be used to determine the allocation of in-person satellite caucus delegates to the district and state conventions. To determine relative strength, each satellite caucus will be allocated county delegate equivalents. These are not elected delegate positions, but rather used to determine the allocation of district/state delegates.”

This passage is not especially clear on its own. One could interpret it to affect only the number of state delegates per candidate at a caucus, and has no bearing on how many state delegates a caucus has to award. But the most straightforward interpretation is that the number of state delegates per caucus is based on the number of county convention delegates. It is worth noting that this is the way it works in typical (nonsatellite) precincts: The number of state delegate equivalents is directly proportionate to county delegates.

And while the number of county convention delegates at each satellite caucus is based on the turnout, it is not directly proportionate. For instance, a satellite precinct with 1 to 20 people gets four delegates, while a caucus with 21 to 40 caucusgoers gets five delegates. Most important, it limits the influence of any one precinct: A caucus can’t get more than nine county delegates, regardless of how many caucusgoers attend.

The appendix of the delegate selection plan appears to confirm this interpretation. In the example given, the number of state delegate equivalents awarded to each satellite caucus is directly proportional to the number of county convention delegates, even though they have varying turnout. In the example, a nursing home with 37 people receives five county delegate equivalents; a group home has 12 people, and it receives four delegate equivalents. A subsequent table shows the number of state delegate equivalents is directly proportional to county delegates, regardless of turnout by satellite caucus.