Democrats pick up long-held GOP seat, Republicans hold on to another in special elections

Molly Beck | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Show Caption Hide Caption Raw video: Caleb Frostman addresses supporters after his win is announced Caleb Frostman talks with supporters after it's announced he has won the election for Senate District 1 seat Tuesday, June 12, 2018.

MADISON - Wisconsin Democrats came one step closer to gaining control of the state Senate by picking up a seat held by Republicans for more than 40 years, while the GOP held on to an Assembly seat in a pair of special elections Tuesday.

Caleb Frostman topped Rep. Andre Jacque in the 1st Senate District and Jon Plumer defeated Ann Groves Lloyd in the 42nd Assembly District.

Frostman will be the first Democrat to represent the northeast Wisconsin district since the 1970s — a win Democrats are hailing as more evidence of a so-called blue wave ready to flip more Republican-held seats in elections later this year.

But Plumer’s victory over Lloyd helps Republicans counter the narrative that Democrats are primed to sweep elections in Wisconsin and around the nation this fall.

While the winners of the contests will hold their seats for only a few months before they must run again in November for a full term, their performance Tuesday will be heavily scrutinized by politicos and voters trying to predict the outcome of the fall elections.

Voters in both districts supported President Donald Trump by double-digit margins in 2016.

Frostman's victory further boosted momentum for state Democrats who are seeking to recover from years of losses and have been energized by two victories earlier this year — the most recent in a Supreme Court race in April.

Frostman did not return a phone call seeking comment but said in a statement that he will bring a "respectful, civil, and collaborative approach" to his work as a state senator.

"It’s something we could use more of in our State Capitol," he said.

Jacque (R-De Pere) said in an interview that he expects his campaign to fare better in the fall election with a different electorate.

"I do think we're going to get a different result in November when we're talking to a much larger group of folks," he said.

Plumer's win offers a breath of relief for Gov. Scott Walker, who had been warning supporters of the blue wave coming his way ever since a January special election when Democrat Patty Schachtner earned a state Senate seat in western Wisconsin that had been held by a Republican for decades.

That district swung almost 30 points from Trump's 17-point margin in 2016 to the Democrats' 10-point victory in January.

Plumer did not return a phone call seeking comment Tuesday. Lloyd said in an interview that she sees Tuesday's election as "a dry run" for November's contest.

"It’s a gerrymandered district," she said about the loss. "It was created to make sure Republicans got elected and it's worked for eight years now, but we made some significant headway."

The leaders of the winners' respective parties each said their new members signaled an electoral shift in their favor.

Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse) said Frostman's win "represents a generational shift in Wisconsin politics."

"The results of this election can’t be ignored. The last time the 1st Senate District was represented by a Democrat, Gerald Ford was president, techies were anxiously waiting for VHS tapes to hit the shelves and the Vikings were in a Super Bowl," she said.

And Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) said in a tweet that Plumer's victory is evidence that the blue wave is just a "trickle" in the state Assembly.

Jon Plumer wins! In the Wisconsin State Assembly it seems to be a #bluetrickle #redwall — Robin Vos (@repvos) June 13, 2018

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Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau) blamed the loss in the 1st Senate District on the timing of the special elections — which were scheduled after a group headed by former Democratic U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder sued Walker over not calling the elections when the seats became vacant.

"With low turnout in the special election tonight, it proved yet again that this was a complete waste of taxpayer money," Fitzgerald said in a statement.

Republicans will continue to control the state Senate, but by a smaller margin with Frostman's win: 18-15. Assembly Republicans' majority stays at 64-35 with Plumer's victory.

In special elections across the country since Trump became president, 25 legislative and congressional seats have flipped from red to blue, according to Charles Franklin, a pollster and political scientist at Marquette University Law School. Just five have gone the other way.

Assembly District 42 is just north of Madison and includes most of Columbia County and parts of Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake and Marquette counties.

Senate District 1 includes all of Door and Kewaunee counties and parts of Brown, Manitowoc, Calumet and Outagamie counties.

The Senate seat leans strongly Republican. It voted by a margin of 18 points for Trump over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race (56% to 38%). And it voted by 23 points for Gov. Scott Walker over Democrat Mary Burke in the 2014 race for governor (61% to 38%).

In the Assembly district, Trump won by 14 points in 2016 and Walker prevailed by nine points in 2014.

The special elections will fill the seats left vacant after former Sen. Frank Lasee (R-De Pere) and former Rep. Keith Ripp (R-Lodi) stepped down in December to join Walker’s administration.

Walker at first didn’t order special elections but did so in March after losing a lawsuit brought by voters. The lawsuit was paid for and litigated by a group led by Holder and Democrats accused Walker of stalling out of fear that Schactner's victory would be replicated.

On Tuesday, Holder claimed victory in a series of tweets.

"Scott Walker was willing to deprive his own constituents of representation rather than let them make their voices heard," Holder said. "But we didn't stop fighting. - and we won't."

NDRC was proud to invest in these special elections. I congratulate Caleb Frostman for winning & Ann Groves Lloyd for putting up one heck of a fight. But this was never about winning- it was about fairness, representation, and giving people a choice. Tonight, fairness won. (4/4) — Eric Holder (@EricHolder) June 13, 2018

The winners must stand for election again in the fall, so their campaigns will continue. Election observers from both sides leading into the election said Tuesday's winners would have a leg up in the fall but no guarantee they would hold the seats.

Patrick Marley of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel contributed to this report.