Nearly 70 percent of adults believe that the 2020 census will include a question about which people in their households are citizens, despite a Supreme Court ruling last year that the citizenship question cannot appear on the census, according to a study released Thursday by the Urban Institute.

The study, which the institute conducted between Dec. 5 and Jan. 1, also found that nearly a third of adults think it is “extremely or very likely” that census information will be used by the federal government to find undocumented people, even though the Census Bureau is prohibited by law from sharing individual data with other federal agencies.

“These are very high numbers, and indicate that there is a lot of confusion out there about what data the census will collect,” Michael Karpman, the leader researcher on the study, said in an interview.

The results of the study conducted by the Washington, D.C.-based think tank show that the controversy over whether a citizenship question would appear on the 2020 Census has had lingering effects on how people view the decennial count, which could “contribute to reduced responsiveness among immigrant families,” the study said. The Constitution requires the federal government to count all residents of the United States every 10 years so congressional representatives can be reallocated.

Immigrants and minorities are already “hard-to-count”–– characterized as such by the Census Bureau because of low historic response rates to the census questionnaire. In the 2010 census, the Bureau failed to count 1.5 million members of minority groups –– two congressional districts worth of people.

An estimated 13.5 percent of Rhode Islanders and people living in the United States are immigrants, and in some cities and towns, including Providence, that number is much higher. Rhode Island is the hardest-to-count state in New England, according to the Census Bureau, and about one in four Rhode Islanders live in hard-to-count communities.

An undercount in Rhode Island could have drastic impacts on the state. About $3 billion in federal funds are allocated to the state annually based on census results –– over a third of the state budget –– and those funds are tied to the count. Additionally, Rhode Island may lose a state representative and an electoral-college vote after the census this year, though experts say it is going to be "extremely close."

Groups across the state are already mobilizing to prevent an undercount. In 2018, after the state legislature failed to pass a bill to allocate funding for census outreach, Gov. Gina Raimondo signed an executive order to create a Complete Count Committee in order to coordinate efforts around census outreach.

“The Committee is working to ensure that all Rhode Islanders in every community and ZIP code are counted,” said Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott, committee co-chair and director of the state Department of Health, in an email. “This has entailed working with a number of key community members and groups who are serving as ambassadors to communities that have been traditionally hard to reach.”

The Census Bureau is relying on these partnerships, with what it calls “trusted messengers,” to encourage people to respond to the census.

“Our partners serve as trusted voices and census ambassadors within their communities,” said Robin Bachman, chief of the Census Bureau’s National Partnership Program.

Outreach in hard-to-count communities can have an impact. Before the 2010 census, community organizations in Central Falls undertook a massive mobilization effort to ensure people in the city –– especially members of minority groups –– were counted. As a result, the self-response rate for the 2010 census was 8 percent higher in Central Falls than it had been in 2000.

However, the results of the Urban Institute study show that perceptions that the Trump administration is racist and xenophobic, and the controversy over the citizenship question, might lead to an undercount of minority and immigrant populations, despite outreach efforts. The study found that while 77 percent of adults said they intended to participate in the 2020 census, for families where one or more family members is a noncitizen, that number is 69 percent.

(The study estimates that actual response rates will be at least 10 percent lower than these statements of intent, based on previous surveys and data.)

Raul Figueroa is a community organizer at Fuerza Laboral, one of the community organizations that led the 2010 outreach efforts in Central Falls.

Fuerza has been conducting census outreach for this year’s count since 2018, when the Census Bureau conducted the only end-to-end test in the country, in Providence County. The Bureau did not have a budget for outreach during the 2018 test and did not contact organizations such as Fuerza that had been involved in the 2010 count in advance, so it was up to residents to ensure they were counted.

The results of the Urban Institute study resonate with Figueroa, who is now working to communicate information about the 2020 census to people who already have relationships with his organization.

“The reality is, people are still scared, whether the citizenship question is there on the form or not, people are still scared to share information with the Census Bureau” Figueroa said.

Fuerza has already begun canvassing households to spread the word about the census in Central Falls, even though the first questionnaires will not be mailed out until March 12.

“We point out the things that will be affected directly if they don’t fill out the census” Figueroa said. “We don’t assure them that the information won’t be shared with other entities, but we assure them there will be some other consequences if they don’t make themselves count.”

The Census Bureau advises local organizations to focus on how the filling out the questionnaire might benefit communities, because previous research has shown it is one of the best ways to encourage households to respond.

However, the Urban Institute study concluded, “The findings in this brief underscore the importance of pairing the message about potential benefits with assurances that the information households provide is protected and of making concerted efforts to reach groups most concerned that the data will be used against them.”

Mario Bueno, executive director of Progreso Latino, an organization that works with Latino and immigrant communities in Rhode Island and is also on the Complete Count Committee, said that his group is focusing on correcting misinformation in its outreach.

Progreso Latino is engaging “influencers in the community” to “spread the word that the citizenship question is not on the application, that this information will not be shared, that it won’t impact you negatively,” Bueno said.

Figueroa agrees that countering misinformation may be the biggest challenge of this year’s census.

“There is also a lot of misinformation out there,” he said, “so we know that it is going to be an uphill battle to make sure that people make themselves count.”

Julia Rock is a freelance writer living in Providence.