I’m going to write something annoying. I’m going to write some horse-race campaign analysis. I’m going to write very broadly and subjectively about trends in the race without using hard data or discussing policy. I’m doing so because I think what I am describing has a possibility of happening, and I think people who are invested in this presidential election should be prepared for it.

The following things are true:



To be very overly broad (I am, I am aware, describing the beliefs and motives of a large and diverse set of individuals), “Clinton World” detests Bernie Sanders, is largely on board with Kamala Harris, but has no real problem with Elizabeth Warren and would greet her nomination without much rancor.



“Obama World” doesn’t share this perspective. It doesn’t take Sanders seriously, and thinks of him—even with some affection—as a harmless crank. It, however, strongly dislikes Warren. I don’t want to say it would stop at nothing to prevent her from winning the nomination, but there are a lot of ancient tensions between the two camps that are far from settled.



If it is the growing consensus among many top Democrats in those two worlds that Joe Biden does not have it in him to win the nomination (or the general election), there are a couple of obvious paths forward: Boost the prospects of the “mainstream” candidate most likely to win if Biden fades or Option B, which we will get to in a minute.

