Mike Davis

@byMikeDavis

On a quiet night in Monmouth County, the whistles of oncoming New Jersey Transit trains can be heard for miles.

But as early as midnight on Sunday, it could get suddenly, eerily quiet. There won’t be any train whistles because there won’t be any trains in service, save for the passing freighter or rare late-night Amtrak.

More than 4,000 NJ Transit workers could strike as early as March 13, if a coalition representing them can’t come to an agreement on a new contract with their employer.

UPDATE: Talks turn ugly after railroad workers get notice of job suspensions during strike

“It’s as stressful for our employees as it is for the commuters. It’s tense. You’re talking about your paycheck,” said Steve Burkert, general chairman of SMART-TD Local 60.The full impact of a strike will likely first be felt on Monday, March 14, when more than 100,000 Manhattan-bound commuters pack onto buses, light rail cars, ferries and their own cars to start their work week in New York. It would be the first NJ Transit work stoppage in 33 years.

At a union rally on Saturday, New Jersey State AFL-CIO president Charlie Wowkanech screamed into a microphone as nearly 1,000 workers and supporters cheered and chanted in unison.

"If we stay together, and we fight together, we're going to win together. Stay strong and we're going to win," Wowkanech said.

The workers haven’t had a contract since July 2011 and the two sides still can’t agree on critical issues, such as salary increases and health benefit contributions.

“It just builds up problems on both sides — a lot of pent-up anger on the part of the workers and liabilities for the agency that’s been delaying them,” said Martin Robins, former director of Rutgers University’s Voorhees Transportation Center. “That really is kindling for a fire to catch and explode."

What can you expect?

If the strike – or a lockout – goes through, it will displace about 105,000 commuters, NJ Transit officials said on Thursday.

And while the agency is beefing up passenger bus support – including private carriers to run temporary park-and-ride routes — the result will still be a traffic nightmare for anyone heading into Manhattan.

Traffic consultant Sam Schwartz last week estimated that more than 10,000 additional cars per hour will hit the road, resulting in traffic back-ups as long as 25 miles.

"All of you know what the Lincoln Tunnel and Holland Tunnel look like in the morning. It's not a pretty picture," Schwartz said.

During any work stoppage, NJ Transit fares will be cross-honored on PATH trains, NY Waterway and Seastreak ferries. For Shore commuters, the easiest ways to get to New York will be NY Waterway service from the Belford Ferry Terminal in Middletown or SeaStreak service from Atlantic Highlands, with stops in lower and midtown Manhattan.

How can you get to New York during a rail stoppage? Check out our NJ Transit strike survival guide.

Shore residents can also park at the PNC Bank Arts Center and take regular Academy bus service to the Port Authority Bus Terminal and Wall Street.

Robins painted a slightly brighter picture last week: “It may not be Armageddon, but it won’t be pleasant.”

He knows from experience: He was NJ Transit's assistant executive director in 1983, when he was the agency’s lead negotiator during the last railroad strike in New Jersey.

That work stoppage was a byproduct of the time, Robins said: For the first time, unions had to negotiate with a public agency, after several private rail lines were consolidated.

But a lot has changed since 1983, Robins said. Rail ridership has more than quadrupled, from about 70,000 riders to more than 308,000 on an average weekday.

A simple proposition, such as relying on buses instead of trains, is a much harder proposition with a congested Port Authority Bus Terminal.

“There are a lot of changes that have occurred for the better, in terms of greater use of public transportation in our region," Robins said. "But at a time like this it comes back to haunt us: It’s harder to mount an alternative system to stave off a strike.

"There's a lot less maneuverability in the transit system," he said.

'Starved'

When the union workers’ contract expired in July 2011, NJ Transit was reeling from more than $80 million in state aid cuts.

That was the tip of the iceberg: Over the last five years, the agency has lost another $270 million in funding. Its $34 million subsidy in the 2016 fiscal year represented a 90 percent reduction over 10 years.

“The biggest problem NJ Transit faces is that the elected leaders of New Jersey – a Republican administration and the Democrats who control the Legislature — have seen fit to starve it,” said David Peter Alan, chairman of transit advocacy group the Lackawanna Coalition. “That’s one of the big reasons why management says it has no money.”

NJ Transit officials have said they could never agree to the unions’ most recent proposal, which was recommended by two federal labor boards last year, claiming it would require a massive fare increase.

The agency already implemented a 9 percent fare hike in October.

“No one’s goal is to have a strike here. Everyone wants to work it out,” Gov. Chris Christie said in a radio interview last week. “Some of these things they are demanding are outrageous … Every extra dollar I give them comes from the farepayers and the taxpayers. There’s no magic money tree.”

Union leaders and supporters have long said that NJ Transit was never negotiating in good faith, as every move required approval from Christie’s office – while the governor was on the campaign trail.

“I don’t blame NJ Transit. I think everything is directed by the governor’s office,” Robins said, echoing the unions. “They don’t deserve the blame here. It’s all consistent with the current efforts by the governor to address health benefits for state workers.”

Light at the end of the tunnel

As of last week, Robins was more hopeful of a deal than ever. The change of heart came after Christie introduced the state’s fiscal year 2017 budget.

While it didn’t include any additional dollars for the Transportation Trust Fund, it did include an additional $127 million in state aid for NJ Transit.

The state also took on about 69 percent of the New Jersey Turnpike Authority’s annual transit contribution, in danger of expiring this year, about $204 million.

“That may forecast that there will be enough give in his budget to stave off a strike. That’s more costly than he would have liked, but it’s still something the state could bear,” Robins said. “The thing to look at is, what led Gov. Christie to ease what could have been catastrophic deficits in NJ Transit operations?”

Burkert last week said that dedicated funding – a multi-year commitment to fund NJ Transit – was the only way to not only prevent union strife, but put money toward real capital improvement.

With a piecemeal, year-by-year approach, it means everything is on – or off – the table every single year.

“You shouldn’t be running the third-largest railroad in the nation on a yearly budget. It should be a five-year, seven-year or a 10-year budget. There is no long-range planning in NJ Transit,” Burkert said.

“It’s tough to pay the bills,” he said, “by looking under the couch cushions.”

Mike Davis: (732) 643-4223; mdavis@gannettnj.com. Click here to sign up for Mike's weekly "Road Sage" newsletter.