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Die Welt blogger and science journalist Ulli Kulke writes here about how another scare story (melting permafrost) is a load of “imbecility”.

In the above paper, permafrost expert Georg Delisle shows that permafrost scare is irrational bedwetting. Source: Poster Bad Honnef.

Some alarmist scientists claim melting permafrost could lead to a dangerous “tipping point” as methane and CO2 released would act to enhance global warming further, which in turn would cause more permafrost to melt, thus accelerating global warming until it careens out of control.

Just in time for Doha, this disaster scenario has once again been hyped up, with Kevin Schaefer of the National Snow and Ice Data Center recently sounding the alarms. So has UNEP.

Kulke writes, however, that the permafrost is much more stable than claimed and that studies have been conducted on permafrost – since decades. Kulke writes:

I remember a seminar in Bad Honnef in the spring of 2008 where geoscientist and permafrost expert Georg Delisle from Hanover presented his research. He studied time periods from the last 10,000 years when the global temperature was warmer than today for several thousand years by as much as 6°C. Ice cores that had been extracted from Antarctica and Greenland provide exact information about the composition of the atmosphere during the these warm periods. His conclusion: ‘The ice cores from both Greenland and Antarctica provide no indication of any elevated release of greenhouse gases at any time even though back then a deep thawing of the permafrost when compared to today would have been the case.’ This was clear to see on the poster he used for his presentation. Obviously CO2 and methane are much more stable in the ground also when it thaws, Poster Bad Honnef.”

Delisle is an expert on permafrost. What does he think about the claims being made that there’s a risk it will thaw out and release lots of climate-shattering gas? Kulke tells us what Delisle said emphasis added:

‘…it is utter imbecility to suppose that the entire permafrost could thaw out by the end of the century. It would take thousands of years.‘ His study ‘Near-surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?’ was the basis for his presentation. It had been peer reviewed and has not to my knowledge been refuted to this day. 2007GL029323.”

Kulke writes that it would be nice if the IPCC took such research into account, the same applies for the sun as a factor as well.

By the way, the Poster Bad Honnef concludes:

• Permafrost in the Arctic will remain mostly intact in the 21st century.

• When making a comparison to other earlier warm periods, the massive release of greenhouse gases from disintegrating permafrost is considered improbable.

Another global warming myth debunked. Now bring on the “melting ice caps”.