In far off Alberta earlier this year, the long-standing juggernaut known as the PC party sits in shambles after the NDP’s Rachel Notley (yes, the NDP!) won a stunning mandate. It’s the province that spawned Harper, the Reform movement, and eventually, the Conservative party.

Harper has deftly managed three terms at the top, including the 2011 election in which his party bludgeoned the opposition and won a whopping 166 seats.

The Senate expense scandal is still to be played out, and Mike Duffy’s trial will be at the forefront as the election campaign begins. More shocking testimony is promised, and more votes could melt away.

Suddenly, Harper looks very exposed, and very beatable.

That the dastardly New Democrats emerge as the right wing’s greatest foe also shows how wrongheaded the Harper re-election strategy was. It focused its attack ads on Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and his lack of experience, not NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, and the NDP. Mulcair seems to be the real the bogeyman under the bed.

Still, Harper is resilient, and won’t go without a fight. No doubt, he’ll alert his re-election team to dredge up more dirt on his opponents, and turn its guns on the surging NDP.

But it seems his power is waning in Quebec and Ontario, and there is still more damning evidence to be given in the Duffy trial. Opponents will note that Duffy and other senators under fire were Harper appointees.

The mood of the electorate in this country is volatile, and dark clouds are looming on the horizon for one of Canada’s most successful politicians.

Can he get Canadians to vote for another term at the top?

The odds have shifted against him.