2018 Massachusetts Primary Preview

We have a very strange two weeks ahead, as five states are going to the polls on five separate days. We will give a preview for each state on its respective day. This week, Massachusetts will have its primary today, while Delaware will have its primary on Thursday. Polls close at 8p ET tonight and we will be liveblogging. Flip over for Legislative Primary Previews!

MA-Gov (R, D) : Both sides have primaries for the gubernatorial race.

Incumbent Charlie Baker (R) is seeking a second term. Baker habitually ranks as among the nation’s most popular Governors, more often than not the most popular nationwide. Baker has followed in the footsteps of his similarly-popular predecessor and mentor, 90s-era Gov. Bill Weld (R). Like Weld, Baker is known as a genuinely fiscally conservative and socially liberal Republican. They also share an affable demeanor, a focus on competently executing small-ball local issues, and a good working relationship with the liberal legislature. Baker’s popularity is extremely broad, with even a large majority of Democrats approving of his performance. However, there has been grumbling on the right over his moderation, and that has led him to face a primary challenger.

Perennial candidate and pastor Scott Lively (R) surprisingly took 28% support from activists at the state GOP convention to make the ballot against Baker. Lively is a nutcase who has run for Governor as a Republican and Indie, generally taking low-single-digit showings, and dabbled with campaigns for other offices. Lively is best known for his very strident anti-LGBT rights platform, including saying that gays were responsible for Nazism, and his support of a law in Uganda that made homosexuality punishable by death. Lively is running as a Trumpist and could get some protest votes in that element of the party.

Overall, the question is not whether Baker will win by a large margin, but whether Lively’s vote share will be enough to embarrass him. More than about 20% of the vote would probably qualify as a sign of significant dissatisfaction on the right that could pose a problem for Baker in a second term if his crossover appeal starts to break down. Two Democrats are vying for the nomination to take on Baker.

Patrick administration official Jay Gonzalez (D) is the front-runner for the Dem nomination. Gonzalez’s biography is quite similar to Baker’s: he served as Patrick’s commissioner of Administration and Finance, the powerful budget and appointments post that Baker served in under Weld, and like Baker, he subsequently worked as a healthcare executive. Gonzalez is running as a bold progressive, including support for state level single-payer and significant tax hikes. He has fundraised credibly and has a large majority of the state Dem establishment’s support (though much of it is tepid as many establishment Dems are backing Baker unofficially). However, he faces a rival running even further left.

1994 LG nominee Bob Massie (D) has an interesting biography. He has lived with hemophilia, and because of that condition, he contracted HIV from a blood transfusion, becoming one of the first known long-term survivors of the disease in the early 90s. In his career, Massie is an Episcopal priest who has also been a Harvard theology professor and an executive at multiple left-wing nonprofit groups. He is running on an ultra-left platform, including broad-based tax hikes and pledging to reinstate rent control. Massie has been a favorite of the state’s hard-left for a generation, and explored multiple runs after his 1994 loss, but did not pull the trigger until this race. While he has significant grassroots connections, his institutional support has been poor and his campaign has been poorly-funded.

Overall, Gonzalez looks like a fairly strong favorite over Massie in the primary thanks to his better fundraising and establishment support, though there is a slight chance grassroots energy could give Massie the upset. In the general, either Democrat will face a very uphill race against the incredibly popular Baker. While it’s not entirely inconceivable that a huge wave could make the race competitive, Massachusetts has been well-conditioned to like moderate Republican governors. The limited polling of the race has had Baker up by overwhelming margins and over 50%. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

MA-LG (D) : Two Democrats are vying for the LG post in a shotgun-wedding primary. Baker’s running mate, Incumbent Karyn Polito (R), a former legislator from suburban Worcester, faces no opposition for the GOP nomination.

Obama White House aide Quentin Palfrey (D) is the establishment pick and has the official Dem party endorsement. Palfrey was a former tech policy aide to Obama who subsequently ran an MIT-affiliated global development nonprofit. Ideologically, he straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive. Palfrey has a majority of establishment support, but faces a rival with more literal star-power.

Comedian Jimmy Tingle (D) is a well-known stand-up comic who has previously given commentaries for 60 Minutes and the Tonight Show. He is running as a far-left candidate and has a sizeable minority of establishment support; Tingle also speaks compellingly about his battles with alcoholism.

Overall, there is no clear favorite between Palfrey’s stronger establishment support and Tingle’s greater star power and name recognition.

MA-Sen (R) : Incumbent Elizabeth Warren (D) is seeking a second term. Warren is obviously a national liberal star and a likely 2020 presidential candidate. Her strident progressivism, particularly on economic issues, is a good fit for the deep-blue state. She thus looks unlikely to face a serious fight for re-election. However, three Republicans are vying in the primary to play General Custer in this race.

Attorney and investor John Kingston (R) is by far the best-funded candidate in the primary, thanks to nearly $5M of self-funding – though he has impressively raised seven figures from donors as well. Kingston was a leader of an unsuccessful group attempting to get a third-party upscale centrist Indie candidate on the ballot nationwide in 2016. However, he has pivoted somewhat to the right for this race, generally running as a moderate conservative with some slight populist tendencies, in the Scott Brown mold.

Gov. Romney administration official Beth Lindstrom (R) has strong establishment connections, as a former state GOP chair and state lottery director. She also served as manager of Scott Brown’s 2010 campaign and a close Romney confidante in 2012. Lindstrom is running as an upscale moderate, very much in the Charlie Baker mold. Aided by modest self-funding, Lindstrom has fundraised well by the standards of the long-shot race, taking in nearly $1.5M.

State Rep. Geoff Diehl (R) is the only candidate in the primary with elected experience, as he has represented a relatively red seat in the southern Boston exurbs for eight years. Diehl is an ideological conservative who led a successful gas-tax repeal initiative in 2014 and served as Trump’s state campaign chair. He is running as an antiestablishment conservative by Massachusetts standards (though he’d probably be an establishment conservative outside New England) with a particular emphasis on fiscal issues. While Diehl has strong grassroots connections and the endorsement of the conservative Boston Herald, he has not fundraised for this race. Though with the MAGOP being a small and well-informed electorate, that may not matter as much in this primary as in most races.

Overall, there is no clear favorite in the primary between Kingston’s cash, Lindstrom’s connections, and Diehl’s grassroots appeal. Any of the three will face a quixotic general election challenge against Warren given the lean of the state and year. Also in the race is self-proclaimed “inventor of email” and Fran Drescher’s ex-husband Shiva Ayyadurai (I). Ayyadurai was previously running in the GOP primary, but has switched to running as an Indie. He could be a factor due to $5M in self-funding. But his main impact if he has one will likely be to split the anti-Warren vote. Overall, it’s all but impossible to see any other scenario besides Warren notching an easy victory in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-1 (D) : MA-1 is a D+12 seat covering most of the Springfield Metro area, as well as most of the rural hipster-heavy Berkshires at the western tip of the state.

Incumbent Richard Neal (D) is seeking a sixteenth term. Neal is an establishment liberal who has slowly climbed the ladder in the House, rising to become ranking Dem on the Ways and Means committee. Neal has not been seriously challenged in the primary or general in memory, even as his blue-collar meat-and-potatoes liberalism has shifted from the party’s left flank to its right. However, that has changed this year as he has a semi-serious challenger.

Attorney Tahirah Amatul-Wadud (D) is running to Neal’s left as a bold progressive. Her Muslim background has also earned her some buzz. However, Amatul-Wadud seems an unpolished candidate. She has had poor fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign, and admits she voted for Scott Brown in 2012 over Elizabeth Warren. She also has little institutional support.

Overall, especially with Massachusetts Democrats being quite incumbent-friendly, it would be a shock if Neal did not notch an easy win in this race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-3 (D) : MA-3 is a D+9 seat covering most of the Merrimack Valley, including the blue-collar cities of Lowell, Lawrence, and Methuen, as well as a large chunk of limousine liberal MetroWest exurbs to the southwest. The seat is open as incumbent Niki Tsongas (D) is retiring after five full terms. Dems have an obscenely crowded primary with ten candidates, eight of them serious.

Boston Mayoral Staffer Dan Koh (D) is looking like the very marginal front-runner in this race. Koh, who is of Korean and Lebanese descent, moved back to his childhood home of the district to run. He is by far the best-funded candidate in the field, raising over $3M without major self-funding. Koh previously worked as an executive at the Huffington Post before becoming CoS to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh (D). Ideologically, he straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, and arguably has a plurality of establishment support (though the establishment in this race has been very fractured). He led in the most recent independent poll of the race, though with a tiny plurality of 19%.

Ex-Ambassador Rufus Gifford (D) served as Ambassador to Denmark in Obama’s second term. Prior to that post, Gifford was a Hollywood actor (scoring a small part in Garfield, the Movie) and Obama campaign operative, rising to become finance director for Obama’s 2012 re-election effort. Gifford has fundraised very well, taking in over $2M with the aid of significant self-funding. He has a significant amount of institutional support, and is running as an establishment liberal. However, Gifford’s ties to the district are weak at best: he grew up in a different part of the Boston suburbs and lived most of his life in LA and DC, then in Denmark as Ambassador, before moving into the seat last year. Additionally, though Gifford has some identity-politics credibility for being openly gay, his background as the only major white male candidate in the field may be problematic.

State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D) has the longest political resume of the field. She has represented most of the Lawrence area in the State Senate for four years, and previously represented a purple Andover-area seat in the State House for eight years until losing re-election in 2010. L’Italien is a bold progressive who has long been known as one of the most left-wing members of the legislature. For this race, she has significant establishment support, particularly from labor groups including the teachers’ union. L’Italien has had good fundraising, though a bit shy of some of her rivals; however, her name recognition from her legislative service is enough to make up for that shortcoming. She also got some national free media (in a very literal sense) when she was mistakenly booked on Fox News and took the opportunity to give an anti-Trump rant (the producers intended to book a more moderate Dem instead).

Former congressional staffer Lori Trahan (D), who now works as a consultant, served as CoS to 90s/2000s-era Rep. Marty Meehan (D), Tsongas’s predecessor in this seat. Trahan is running as an establishment liberal with some moderate tendencies, and playing up her business expertise. That position makes her the most moderate of the major candidates in the field and could give her a coherent ideological niche. She has fundraised very well, taking in over $1M with only modest self-funding, and has a modest amount of institutional support.

Attorney and hotelier Beej Das (D) is a constitutional lawyer who switched careers to run a hotel in the district. He has had good-but-not-great fundraising, aided by significant self-funding. Das ideologically straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive. However, he seems to have little institutional support, and has been hit for writings he made in college criticizing racial-minority activist groups. Das has generally been polling toward the middle to back of the crowded field.

State Rep. Juana Matias (D) has represented a deep-blue Hispanic-majority seat in the poor mill town of Lawrence for one term; she ousted an incumbent in the primary two years ago to win her seat in a considerable upset. Matias is running as a bold progressive and has a modest amount of establishment support, particularly from the party’s left wing. However, her single term in the legislature has not netted her a large number of establishment connections, and her fundraising, while in the good-but-not-great range, has trailed her very well-funded rivals. Matias has also generally been polling toward the middle to back of the field.

Naval Intelligence analyst Alexandra Chandler (D) has a compelling biography as a former career intelligence officer who is both lesbian and transgender. Chandler is running as a bold progressive. She has had poor fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign, and a modest amount of establishment support. However, she seems more likely than not to finish toward the back of the pack with many better-funded, better-known, and better-connected candidates.

Banker Bopha Malone (D) has a compelling story of immigrating to America as a child refugee from Cambodia, fleeing the murderous Khmer Rouge regime. Malone is an executive at a local bank and is running as a business-friendly establishment liberal. However, she has had poor fundraising and little institutional support, and seems likely to finish toward the back of the pack in the crowded field.

There are also two non-serious Some Dudes in the race. Overall, Koh is generally considered a slight favorite, as he led in the most recent poll of the race. However, Gifford, L’Italien, and Trahan all seem to be within striking distance of a win as well. It seems a safe bet that in a field this crowded, the primary winner is likely to get a tiny vote share – it would be a surprise if any candidate cracked 30%.

Republicans amazingly have a credible nominee for this seat in auto parts company owner Rick Green (R). Green has strong grassroots connections from serving as chair of a state-level fiscal conservative group, and is running as a moderate conservative. He has fundraised well for such a long-shot race with only modest self-funding. However, with the Dem-friendly year and deep-blue and #resistance heavy nature of the district, Green’s bid seems like a decided long-shot. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-7 (D) : MA-7 is a white-plurality D+34 seat snaking through most of the working-class portions of the urban Boston area, including the minority-heavy areas of Roxbury, western Dorchester, and Mattapan, the blue-collar surrounding cities of Somerville and Chelsea, and the middle-class black heavy suburb of Randolph.

Incumbent Mike Capuano (D) is seeking an eleventh term. Capuano is a blue-collar progressive who previously served as Mayor of Somerville when it was an ungentrified inner suburb. He has been an unwavering left-wing vote in the House, which has historically been enough to prevent any primary challengers for this seat. However, his blue-collar white-ethnic background has increasingly felt out of step with the Dem zeitgeist, particularly in a seat that has become both much more gentrified and minority-heavy. Thus, Capuano is facing a serious challenge this year.

Boston councilwoman Ayanna Pressley (D) has represented the entire city for nearly a decade. Pressley is considered a rising star on the state’s Dem bench, and has drawn praise for sharing her story of overcoming sexual abuse as a child. She has fundraised very well for this race, taking in nearly $900K. She has also poached a significant minority of establishment support, most notably landing an endorsement from AG Maura Healey (D). Pressley is running as a bold progressive; there are few ideological difference between her and Capuano, so the contrasts are mostly about experience and background.

Polling as generally shown Capuano with modest leads, but Pressley taking significant vote shares and within striking distance of an upset. While Massachusetts Dems tend to be very incumbent-friendly, Pressley’s star power in a district with a lot of minorities and identity-politics obsessed white liberals can not be underestimated. Thus, while Capuano should still be the favorite, Pressley pulling the upset would not be a huge surprise. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-8 (D) : MA-8 is a D+10 seat covering the white-ethnic (but gentrifying) neighborhoods of South Boston and eastern Dorchester in Boston proper as well as most of Boston’s middle-class southern suburbs, from Quincy and the south shore south to the Brockton area.

Incumbent Steve Lynch (D) is seeking a ninth full term. Lynch touts his background as a former ironworker who grew up in public housing, and is unapologetically a member of the 20th-century blue-collar labor Dem tradition. He is a reliable fiscal liberal vote, but has also historically been one of the Dem caucus’s more moderate members on social issues; most notably, he claims to be pro-life (though his voting record has generally not reflected that in recent years). Lynch has slowly moved somewhat left with his district in recent years, though he still is more culturally moderate than the increasingly gentrified Dems of his seat. He faces two challengers in the primary this year.

Video game developer Brianna Wu (D) got some national buzz in this race. Wu, who founded an independent video game studio, was a key figure in the “Gamergate” harassment of female video game developers scandal. She is running as a staunch leftist in this race. However, much of Wu’s national buzz fizzled when she made a breathtakingly stupid statement that “rocks dropped from [the moon] have power of 100s of nuclear bombs” and that moon rock control should be a national priority. Her fundraising for this race has been poor and she has little institutional support.

The third wheel in this race is pilot Christopher Voehl (D). Voehl is a retired career Air Force officer who now flies for a commercial cargo airline. He has not fundraised for this race, but has self-funded barely enough to run a credible campaign. He is running as a fiscal moderate and social liberal, but has little institutional support and looks unlikely to be a serious contender.

Overall, Lynch’s rivals’ weakness should leave him a very strong favorite for renomination. However, a less than overwhelming primary win might convince a stronger challenger to take him on in the primary in 2020. Republicans are not seriously contesting this seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-9 (D) : MA-9 is a D+4 seat largely coextensive with the region known as the South Coast, Cape, and Islands, including New Bedford and Cape Cod, with some slight differences – the congressional seat does not include most of the Fall River area, but instead includes some parts of the lower South Shore around Plymouth.

Incumbent Bill Keating (D) is seeking a fifth term. Keating is a backbench establishment liberal who has generally focused on non-controverisal and parochial issues in his time in Congress. That positioning has generally kept him secure in this light-blue seat. Despite the fact that he had to carpetbag to this seat from Boston’s southern suburbs when the seat was redrawn in 2012, Keating dispatched a serious primary challenge in 2012 relatively easily and has not been a serious target in the primary or general since.

Home contractor Bill Cimbrelo (D) is Keating’s rival, challenging the incumbent on a far-left platform. An Argentine immigrant, Cimbrelo has not fundraised much, but has self-funded barely enough to run a serious campaign. He has some modest left-wing support, including ties to the area’s Green Party and the DSA socialists’ group. However, Cimbrelo has little support from the area’s more traditional Dem establishment. Overall, it would be a shock if Keating did not easily win renomination.

Republicans somewhat surprisingly have a credible recruit for this seat in convenience store executive Peter Tedeschi (R). Tedeschi previously served as CEO of his family’s namesake convenience store chain, which was a ubiquitous presence in the area before the chain was sold to 7-11 in 2015. Tedeschi has fundraised well for this race, aided by moderate self-funding, and is running as a moderate. However, though Baker is certain to carry the district, this is a Dem-leaning seat. It is nearly impossible to beat a Dem incumbent in the general in Massachusetts even in the best of circumstances, which this year decidedly is not. While Tedeschi will probably be a recruitment target for a future race, the seat looks to still be a bit off the edge of the playing field barring an unforced Dem error. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-SoS (D) : With the Governor and Senate races looking likely to be walkovers for their incumbents, the most consequential statewide primary is actually probably the race for the Secretary of State (“Secretary of the Commonwealth”) seat.

Incumbent Bill Galvin (D) is seeking a seventh term. Galvin is a longtime and generally low-key pol in this office, mostly notable for his periodic TV advertisements about “election procedures” that double as self-promotion. Galvin is an establishment liberal, which has generally been enough to keep him secure in this office. But this year, with the state having an unusually fired-up #resistance base, Galvin has drawn a serious challenge from his left.

Boston councilman Josh Zakim (D) has represented the wealthy Back Bay and Beacon Hill neighborhoods on the council for five years. But perhaps more notably, Zakim is the son of former ADL chair Lenny Zakim, who is better-known as the namesake of the iconic “Bill Buckner” bridge between Boston and Charlestown. Zakim is running to Galvin’s left, most notably touting his support for same-day registration and other liberal voting-access measures. Zakim narrowly and surprisingly won the official party endorsement at the state convention.

Overall, incumbency is a powerful driver in Massachusetts Dem politics and Galvin is a strong campaigner. Thus, the incumbent still looks like a moderate favorite. But Zakim is running a serious campaign with substantial support from left-wing activists, and could easily pull the upset. The primary winner will be a strong favorite over Anthony Amore (R), a former Homeland Security official who is now the director of security at a museum in Boston. Amore is a credible candidate who might have a tiny chance to make the race competitive if Galvin loses in the primary. But overall the Dem nominee, either Galvin or Zakim, looks likely to be a prohibitive favorite in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-AG (R) : Two Republicans are vying to take on incumbent Maura Healey (D), who is seeking a second term. Healey has been a popular incumbent in office and is generally regarded as a rising star. Attorney Jay McMahon (R) has the official party endorsement, but fellow attorney and 2014 MA-9 candidate Dan Shores (R) may have slightly higher name recognition. There is no clear favorite in the primary. With both Republicans being “Some Dude” level, neither seems likely to pose any serious threat to a popular incumbent in a Dem-friendly state and year. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

Other Massachusetts Row Officer Elections : The other two Row Offices do not have contested primaries.

MA-Treas : Incumbent Deb Goldberg (D) is seeking a second term. Goldberg is a wealthy former executive at the grocery chain Stop & Shop; she has generally been a non-controversial establishment liberal in office. Somewhat surprisingly, Goldberg has a serious GOP challenger. State Rep. Keiko Orrall (R) gave up her relatively safe legislative seat in the southern Boston exurbs to enter this race. Orrall has been considered a rising star on the state’s meager GOP bench. However, non-controversial Dem incumbents in Massachusetts simply don’t lose even in the best of years for Republicans. Thus, Orrall’s run seems a bit of a quixotic mission. Her bid may be more about gaining name rec for a future race while keeping her legislative seat in the family, as her husband is vying to succeed her in the legislature. Overall, Goldberg still looks like a prohibitive favorite for re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

MA-Aud : Incumbent Suzanne Bump (D) is seeking a third term. Bump only narrowly won in 2010 after some stumbles in her campaign, most notably revelations that she claimed two primary-home tax breaks. Since taking office, Bump has generally been very well-regarded, and is considered one of the few pols who has taken on the state’s endemic hackery with vigor. Thus, Bump is a prohibitive favorite for a third term. She faces token general election opposition from 2016 State House candidate Helen Brady (R). Brady is an executive with the Boston Symphony Orchestra who lost a sacrificial-lamb run for a deep-blue legislative seat two years ago. She seems a respectable candidate but is unlikely to get more than R base votes against Bump’s incumbency and the lean of the state and year. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

Flip over for Legislative and Governor’s Council Primary Previews!

Massachusetts Governor’s Council : Unlike its very powerful New Hampshire counterpart, Massachusetts’s 8-member Governor’s Council is a low-powered body, mostly responsible for approving judicial appointments and being a fantastic den of hackery. Dems hold a 7-1 majority on the board.

MA-GC-3 (D) is a D+17 seat covering most of the MetroWest region and parts of Boston itself. Incumbent Marilyn Petitto Devaney (D) is best known for her hot temper – she semi-regularly gets into shouting matches with council colleagues, and most notably was charged with assault for throwing a curling iron at a store clerk a decade ago. Devaney has long had poor relationships with the state establishment, but has managed to keep her seat on the strength of incumbency and low info voters; she took 49% against two challengers last cycle. The state establishment has largely lined up behind her rival, trial lawyer Nick Carter (D), a more low-key progressive. Between Carter’s establishment support and Devaney’s incumbency, there is no clear favorite.

MA-GC-4 (D) is a D+17 seat covering most of Boston proper and the South Shore region. Longtime incumbent Christopher Ianella Jr. (D) should be favored over utility exec Mark Rooney (D).

MA-GC-5 (D) is a D+7 seat covering the Merrimack Valley as well as most of the North Shore region around Salem. Incumbent Eileen Duff (D) should be a strong favorite for renomination over 2016 Indie State House candidate Nicholas Torresi (D). The primary winner will be favored in the general over school board member and 2008 congressional candidate Rich Baker (R).

The other seats do not have primaries.

MA-GC-1 is a D+5 seat covering the South Coast, Cape, and Islands. Incumbent Joe Ferreira (D) will head to a general election with ex-Sandwich councilman Tom Keyes (R), which may be competitive.

MA-GC-2 is a D+9 seat covering Boston’s southwest suburbs to the Rhode Island border. Incumbent Bob Jubinville (D) is totally unopposed for a fourth term.

MA-GC-6 is a D+20 seat covering Boston’s inner northern suburbs from Cambridge to Lynn and parts of downtown Boston proper. Incumbent Terrence Kennedy (D) is totally unopposed for a fifth term.

MA-GC-7 is an R-held D+3 seat almost coextensive with Worcester County. Incumbent Jen Caissie (R), the lone Republican on the council, will head to a competitive general with attorney and zoning board member Paul Depalo (D).

MA-GC-8 is a D+16 seat covering the western third of the state, including the Pioneer (Connecticut River) Valley and the Berkshires. Incumbent Mary Hurley (D) is totally unopposed for a second term.

Massachusetts Senate :

MA-SD-Berkshire, Hampshire, Franklin, & Hampden (D) is a D+19 seat covering most of the Berkshires region at the western tip of the state. Incumbent Adam Hinds (D) should be the favorite over Lee councilman Tom Wickham (D), though an upset might be a slight possibility.

MA-SD-2nd Essex & Middlesex (D) is an open D+11 seat covering Lawrence and suburbs to the south and west. Ex-State Sen. Barry Finegold (D) is vying to make a comeback to the seat he held before an unsuccessful run for State Treasurer in 2014. He is facing two rivals in school board member and 2014 candidate Pavel Payano (D), who took 36% in a three-way primary four years ago, and firefighter Mike Armano (D), a bold progressive who has significant labor support. Finegold looks like a slight favorite, but either of his rivals could pull the upset. The primary winner will be favored over school board member Joe Espinola (R).

MA-SD-Hampden (D) is a D+22 seat covering most of Springfield and some inner suburbs. Incumbent Jim Welch (D), an establishment liberal, should be favored over bold progressive Springfield councilman Amaad Rivera (D), but an upset is possible.

MA-SD-Hampshire, Franklin, & Worcester (D) is an open D+24 seat covering the northern Pioneer (Connecticut River) Valley from Northampton to the Vermont border. This race is among the strangest in memory. Four Democrats are facing off, but only one is on the ballot. University administrator Chelsea Kline (D) jumped into the race with no name rec or connections – but she had the good sense to mount a primary challenge to the scandal-plagued prior incumbent, ex-Senate President Stan Rosenberg (D) when nobody else would. Just after the filing deadline, a report was released that was scathing toward Rosenberg over his husband’s status as a prolific sexual harasser, and Rosenberg dropped out of the race. Kline is now the very strong favorite to get the seat, and the establishment has warmed to her candidacy. However, three write-in candidates are also running: Northampton councilman Ryan O’Donnell, Moveon.org executive Jo Comerford (D), and municipal official Steve Connor (D). All three are serious, but with none of them being on the ballot, they seem likely to split the anti-Kline vote and ensure an easy Kline victory.

MA-SD-1st Middlesex (D) is an open D+11 seat covering the city of Lowell, but not most of its suburbs, plus a chunk of GOP-leaning exurban areas to the west around Groton. Five Democrats are facing off: Lowell councilmen Edward Kennedy (D) and Rodney Elliott (D), ex-Lowell councilman Bill Martin (D), school board member Terry Ryan (D), and union official John Drinkwater (D). There is no clear favorite and any of the five could prevail. The primary winner will be favored over consultant and talk radio host John MacDonald (R).

MA-SD-5th Middlesex (D) is a D+14 seat seat in the northern Boston suburbs, stretching from Malden north to Reading. Incumbent Jason Lewis (D), an establishment liberal, should be favored over Melrose Dem chair Sam Hammar (D), who is running as a bold progressive. The incumbent should be favored but an upset is possible.

MA-SD-Norfolk, Bristol, & Middlesex (D) is an R-held D+10 seat stretching a long strip from Attleboro in the Providence suburbs north to Wayland in MetroWest. Three Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Richard Ross (R) in a competitive general in this upscale, #resistance heavy seat. Needham town meeting member Becca Rausch (D) seems to have the most establishment support and seems the front-runner, but she faces two rivals. 2016 nominee Kris Aleksov (D) is trying again after losing to Ross by 20 points last cycle; he could win on name recognition.Finally, teacher Jackie Katz (D) also seems serious and might have a small chance at an upset.

MA-SD-Plymouth & Barnstable (D) is an R-held D+2 seat covering much of the lower South Coast around Plymouth, plus the Upper Cape around the Canal, including Bourne and Falmouth. Two Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Vinny DeMacedo (R) in a competitive general. Attorney Deb Rudolf (D) should be the clear favorite over perennial candidate Stephen-Michael Palmer (D).