Did Dak Prescott regress in 2017? Yes, and no.

Overall, he was much less efficient than in 2016, but there was a pattern to this inefficiency. Prescott’s ability to withstand pressure was a huge culprit in his decline in play this season. In this study, we’ll look at numerous factors that help explain exactly where things went bad for Prescott, and use the context of where he was successful and how other NFL quarterback reacted in similar situations to tell the full story.

All pressure statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

Various Prescott splits when pressured more or less than 40%

YEAR BY YEAR

≥ 40 percent of dropbacks:

2016: 67.6 (3 games)

2017: 66.1 (8 games)

< 40% of dropbacks

2016: 109.6 (14 games)

2017: 112.9 (8 games)

WIN-LOSS RECORD

< 40%: 18-3 (.857)

≥ 40%: 4-8 (.333)

Cumulative stats from 21 games when pressured < 40%

413 of 600 (68.8 percent)

4,932 yd (8.2 ypa)

38 TD 3 INT

Passer Rating: 112.7

Cumulative stats from 12 games when pressured ≥ 40%

208 of 352 (59.1 percent)

2,119 yd (6.0 ypa)

9 TD 15 INT

Passer Rating: 67.2

A pressure is defined as a sack, a hit or a hurry. One would expect a QB to struggle when pressured, there’s nothing drastic in that assumption for these splits to register. The problem is Prescott also tends to struggle on all attempts in games in which he feels a lot of pressure, even when not pressured on a particular play.

His performance differences in this regard became ever more dramatic in 2017, as outlined by the following numbers.

Passing from CLEAN POCKET in games when pressured < 40%

2016

222 of 288 (77.1 percent)

2636 yd (9.2 ypa)

17 TD 1 INT

122.6

2017

106 of 152 (69.7 percent)

1,206 yd (7.9 ypa)

13 TD 1 INT

Passer Rating: 119.0

Career

328 of 440 (74.5 percent)

3,842 yd (8.7 ypa)

30 TD 2 INT

Passer Rating: 121.4

Passing from CLEAN POCKET in games when pressured ≥ 40%

2016

29 of 53 (54.7 percent)

422 yd (8.0 ypa)

4 TD 3 INT

Passer Rating: 82.4

2017

116 of 166 (69.9 percent)

925 yd (5.6 ypa)

4 TD 7 INT

Passer Rating: 74.0

Career

145 of 219 (66.2 percent)

1,347 yd (6.2 ypa)

8 TD 10 INT

Passer Rating: 76.0

As he should be, Prescott is dominant when he passes from a clean pocket in games where the offensive line keeps him relatively clean. His numbers from a clean pocket in heavy-pressure games is outright alarming, though.

Then, note how the completion percentage is way up and the yards per attempt is way down in 2017 from the year before. Perhaps there was a conscious decision on Prescott’s part to opt for the shorter, “safer” throw.

It should be remembered there will be some cause-effect confusion in these samples, as a QB who is struggling from a clean pocket is more likely to be losing the game, and so will find himself in more passing situations. That usually translates into more pressures as the game goes on. This effect is somewhat diminished by using percentages instead of the raw number of pressures, but not completely eliminated.

So how do Prescott’s “clean pocket” numbers compare to other quarterbacks in these two types of games?

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NFL passers performance in clean pockets

Passer ratings in low-pressure (< 40 percent) vs. high-pressure (≥ 40%)

Smith: 119.6 (94.5)

Prescott: 119.0 (74.0)

Goff 114.9 (90.2)

Keenum 114.2 (102.3)

Brees 114.1 (–)

Wilson 109.4 (107.8)

Wentz 109.2 (113.5)

Stafford 107.3 (106.1)

Cousins 106.3 (113.4)

Roethlisberger 103.4 (104.6)

Brady 102.7 (117.7)

Ryan 100.3 (117.5)

Rivers 99.7 (106.1)

Carr 99.5 (117.5)

Winston 95.4 (120.4)

Keep Prescott clean for an entire game and he is absolutely incredible, one of the league’s best. But that same clean pocket in a game with a limited amount of them, with 40 percent or more of the dropbacks pressured? Prescott is the the worst, by far.

Why?

To see how Prescott is a unique case, look at how an excess of pressures in a game impacts a quarterback’s attempts when not pressured in that same game, and then compare that to how a normal number of pressures in a game affects his attempts when pressured in that same game.

Clean in High-Pressure games vs Dirty in Low-Pressure games

This is the difference in passer rating “when pressured in games in which total pressures were less than 40% of dropbacks” vs. “when not pressured in games in which total pressures equaled or exceeded 40% of dropbacks.”

QBs over two years (2016-2017) Dirty Pocket in Low-Pressure Games Passer Rating Clean Pocket in High-Pressure Games Passer Rating Passer Rating Difference Brady 95 116.2 +21.2 Prescott 90.6 74.5 -16.1 Cousins 83.4 114.6 +31.2 Rodgers 81.4 104 +22.6 Stafford 80.3 100.4 +20.1 Ryan 77.5 104.1 +26.6 Keenum 74.2 95.4 +21.2 Winston 72.7 103.9 +31.2 Goff 69.6 85.6 +16 Manning 66 85.1 +19.1 Newton 65.9 79.6 +13.7 Smith 65.5 94.5 +29 Roethlisberger 64 128.4 +64.4 McCown 60.8 85.7 +24.9 Bortles 59.4 85.7 +26.3 Rivers 57.2 101 +43.8 Flacco 54.9 80.9 +26 Wentz 50.4 105.4 +55 Siemian 43.3 91.6 +48.3

Even in games when they’re pressured an inordinate amount of times, these QB are much better when not pressured on the throw. Every one of them save for one.

It’s “normal” to be better when you’re not pressured on the play, regardless of all the pressure you’re under in the rest of the game. The average is 30 rating points better, and in fact, all of them are at least 13 points better when not pressured on the throw except Prescott, who’s 16 points worse. He has the lowest rating of all these QB when not pressured in a high-pressure game, and the second-highest (behind Brady) when pressured in a normal (sub-40%) game.

Is it possible most of this pressure is self-generated? For example, a quarterback is far more likely to encounter pressure if he holds the ball too long, or doesn’t move well in the pocket. You can look at the 40-percent pressure games for that answer.

The games with the excessive amount of pressures were mostly in the seasons’ first four weeks for Dallas, when the OL was still coming together as a unit, and when all 5 starters weren’t on the field.

So the cause of these high-pressure games are more likely OL issues and defenses faced, than to Prescott’s play. Not counting the meaningless season-ender, Smith or Martin missed most or all of four games: at Atlanta, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle(Weeks 10, 11, 12, and 16). Compare the games with Smith and Martin to the games without them.

Continue…

Full Contingent of Starting OL vs Missing Key Starters

Pressured Dropbacks (of Total Dropbacks)

With Smith/Martin: 32.9 percent (123 of 374)

Without: 45.6 percent (67 of 147)

Sacks Taken

With Smith/Martin: 13 (in 11 games)

Without: 18 (in 4 games)

Passing Statistics

With Smith/Martin:

212 of 338 (63percent)

2,464 yd (7.3 ypa)

21 TD 6 INT

Passer Rating: 98.0

Without:

79 of 122 (65 percent)

681 yd (5.6 ypa)

0 TD 7 INT

Passer Rating: 55.4

If the issue was Prescott himself causing most of the pressure, it should affect every game he plays, with only slight variation from one game to the next. That’s obviously not what happened in 2017. The evidence is clear Prescott is very good (and ironically, even very good under pressure) when not pressured often in games, and that his performance drops substantially when he is pressured an inordinate amount of times.

It may be that the real issue with Prescott is mental. In the games when he’s pressured often, that stats imply a switch is flipped and it turns him into a different guy. At this tipping point, he starts anticipating the pressure and forgetting everything else. After that, it doesn’t matter whether you’re pressuring him or not. He’ll respond as if you were. The team can improve OL depth and hope for better health to limit the number of games with so many pressures, but it can’t have the QB going from Jekyll to Hyde when those things fail.

While there are always things a young QB can work on to improve mechanics, accuracy, pocket presence, and understanding of defenses, Prescott’s biggest need for improvement may be in how he responds, play after play, in games when pressured often even with no pressure on a particular play.

That may come as he sharpens his skills, it may come with more game experience, or it may not come at all.

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