NEW DELHI: The hour of reckoning for BJP in Delhi is approaching, slowly but surely. Prompted by Supreme Court, it may have to give up its ambiguous stand on the fate of Delhi assembly and decide either way – a shot at government formation or fresh elections.

Going by conventional wisdom, the party should have had no hesitation in going to the people now. Consider this: in the Lok Sabha election it led in 60 out of 70 assembly segments and its main rival, AAP, in just 10. BJP won each of the seven Lok Sabha seats by margins of over a lakh each. Its vote share was 46.4%, up 13.3% from the assembly elections’ figure of 33.1%. Then, why not strike when the iron is hot? What could possibly go wrong?

One plausible explanation could be that it has got spooked by AAP which has taken the high moral ground and launched a campaign despite losing some of its aura. Though most of its middle class have got disillusioned with Arvind Kejriwal and his party, the party’s vote share of 32.9% in the Lok Sabha elections was 3.4 percentage points higher than the 29.5% it got in the assembly polls.

With the Congress vote share coming down from 24.6% in December to just 15.1% in April, BJP might be a fearing a complete meltdown of the Congress vote and its transfer – particularly the jhuggi-jhonpdi and Muslim votes – to AAP. If that happens, AAP’s vote share could rise despite the media and middle class perception that the party is in free fall.

BJP leaders seem to be well aware of this. And that’s precisely why it is still trying to break some MLAs from Congress and cobble up a majority instead of going to the polls. While the reluctance of MLAs to face polls again is understandable, the reluctance of the leadership to face polls – at a time when the party’s vote is on the upswing – is seemingly inexplicable.

The real reason possibly is that although BJP registered a 14% increase in its vote share between the assembly and parliamentary elections, party leaders probably think the big bump was due to the ‘Modi wave’. And they are not sure if the Modi factor will be as strong for BJP’s Delhi leadership – largely nondescript and uninspiring. The by-election results in Uttarakhand, where BJP lost all three seats after winning all LOk Sabha seats from the state, are likely to add to their nervousness.

Party insiders who are candid enough to discuss the party’s dilemma say even if, say, 8% of the 14% bump in BJP votes was because of the Modi factor, the BJP might fear that its vote share in fresh elections could drop to somewhere around 38-39%. If AAP gains from Congress voters who desert the party, and is helped by a few BJP Lok Sabha voters whose main attraction them was Modi, its vote could get uncomfortably close to BJP’s.

“There is a need to fix the gaps. The party needs to focus on strengthening its base in unauthorised colonies and slums, which are now considered to be AAP strongholds,’’ said a BJP leader. Over the years, this vote bank has shifted from Congress to BSP and then to AAP.

Party president Amit Shah has started consultations on these matters. Senior leaders are exploring all possibilities, including continuing with President’s Rule, as the state unit is not in a good shape. The newly-appointed state chief, Satish Upadhyay, is trying to bring about a change in the functioning of the party, sources say.

The long period of uncertainty over appointing a new state chief – with health minister Harsh Vardhan moving to the Centre – has hurt the party's efforts to consolidate the Lok Sabha surge, especially among young voters.

Organisational factors could be playing a role too. There are too many hats in the ring for the chief minister’s post. With each one fearing that the other could become chief minister in fresh elections, the path for the Delhi BJP is laid with mistrust and none appear to have a strong desire to push for polls.

Soon after taking over, Upadhyay had hinted at organizational changes in the state unit. But party leaders say their priority should be carrying out large-scale outreach programmes to connect with people. Recently, Upadhyay directed all local units, MLAs and corporators to aggressively publicise budgetary provisions for Delhi.

On his part, Upadhyay says the party is ready for re-elections. “The LG has to take a final call. We are prepared for elections, irrespective of timing. We have got a terrific mandate in the city during the Lok Sabha polls. Our government at the Centre has prepared an excellent budget for the city. We are confident that BJP will form the next government in Delhi," he said. But most MLAs and state leaders say otherwise.

By the time the L-G gets back to the Supreme Court, the issue would have been settled for an indecisive Delhi BJP.