Republicans had expected Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley to finish off Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill by now. | Jeff Roberson, File/AP Photo Elections GOP struggles to put away vulnerable Dems in Senate battlegrounds Control of the Senate is a tossup five weeks from Election Day.

The Senate majority remains up for grabs five weeks before Election Day, with Republicans struggling to put away nearly half a dozen Democratic incumbents they had expected to beat and Democratic challengers remaining surprisingly resilient in three Republican-held seats.

At least six Senate races — three currently held by Democrats and three held by Republicans — are too close to call, according to a dozen senators, strategists and pollsters in both parties interviewed by Politico for this story. That means even a slight shift in the national political environment between now and Election Day could be the difference between a slim Democratic majority and firm Republican control. And another handful of races on both sides are not yet out of reach.


Republicans still have the inside track to defend their 51-49 majority, with Democrats on defense in most races and the map tilting heavily toward states President Donald Trump carried in 2016, including the key states of Florida, Indiana and Missouri. But the GOP had expected to finish off more red-state Democratic senators like Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri by this point, while Democratic candidates seeking to flip Arizona and Tennessee have proved more resilient than expected in public and private polling.

Neither party is willing to concede that its most vulnerable incumbent — North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for Democrats and Nevada Sen. Dean Heller for Republicans — is doomed, and both parties are still spending millions to keep those races in play and hoping for a poll-defying victory.

“We have to be very disciplined and make sure we’re putting the resources on the highest-probability targets,” said Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “That could change a little bit — ebb and flow — over the next couple weeks.”





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And as the parties’ super PACs and campaign committees spend tens of millions of dollars in the core battleground states, two well-funded challengers have put increasing pressure on senators in normally safe states: Texas, where GOP Sen. Ted Cruz is fighting to shake off Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke and his army of online donors, and New Jersey, where Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez — who faced corruption charges in 2017 but went free after a mistrial was declared — has struggled to put away wealthy Republican nominee Bob Hugin.

Republican operatives believe Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s delayed Supreme Court nomination could be the thing that finally turns several key races against resilient red-state Democratic senators. GOP strategists had grown pessimistic about the party’s outlook in September, but they see signs of the Republican base growing energized over attacks on Kavanaugh, who faces allegations of sexual assault.

“The more outrageous our Democratic colleagues treat this nomination of Judge Kavanaugh, the more energized Republican voters are becoming, because they realize what the alternative is,” Texas Sen. John Cornyn said. “I think the extent to which people view this confirmation proceeding for Kavanaugh as being hijacked by partisan operatives, I think that’s going to energize independents and Republicans.”

Donnelly, McCaskill and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) have publicly opposed Kavanaugh, while Heitkamp and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) remain publicly undecided. Manchin’s experience in the past week shows the political bind of the red-state Democrats: Trump attacked Democrats’ handling of the judge’s confirmation at a rally in West Virginia last weekend, while activists flooded Manchin’s offices, imploring him to vote no.

Republican Senate nominee Patrick Morrisey has struggled to gain ground in West Virginia, dragged down by millions of dollars in ads attacking him for his past as a lobbyist. But Republicans believe Kavanaugh could polarize the electorate in their favor and quickly shift the race back into toss-up territory if Manchin opposes Kavanaugh.

“If [Manchin] votes yes, the race goes away,” said one senior Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak frankly.

Tester has also maintained consistent leads in public polling of his race, to the point that his campaign against Republican Matt Rosendale had started to drift out of the conversation of main battlegrounds. But Republicans released two private polls over the summer showing Rosendale within striking distance, and Democrats acknowledge the race has tightened in recent weeks. In two public polls in September, shortly after Trump held a rally in the state, Tester was ahead by only 2 points and 4 points, respectively.

“Obviously, with Trump coming out here so many times, or [Vice President] Pence or [Donald Trump Jr.] coming out here, it has tightened the race,” said Jim Larson, a former chair of the Democratic Party in Montana. “But I also think it’s activated Democrats to get out and vote and realize they have to vote to win this election and they can’t sit at home.”





But Democrats dispute any notion of a broader Republican boost from the Kavanaugh imbroglio, pointing out numerous polls that show majorities of independent voters and women oppose his nomination. In September, Democratic strategists were buoyed by public and private polls showing nearly all of their incumbents ahead or within striking distance, a prospect that seemed impossible at the start of this year — though two public polls in North Dakota this week showed Heitkamp trailing by double digits.

In particular, Democrats are upbeat about Florida, though they still see the Senate race as a toss-up. Big-spending Republican Gov. Rick Scott took control of the race upon his April campaign launch, and he and allies have spent over $33 million on the airwaves, compared with just $11 million for Democrats. But Democrats’ spending has come more recently, and since then Nelson has led narrowly in public polling, erasing Scott’s midsummer lead.

“We have a very tough political map, but momentum continues to move our way,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in an interview. “There is a credible path to a Democratic majority. It is a narrow path, but getting wider by the day.”

That path relies on a difficult two-step: protecting all or most of the incumbents in toss-up races, and flipping two or three GOP-held seats. If a single Democratic incumbent loses, the party would have to sweep races in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee to take the majority. If more than one Democratic incumbent loses, the party is all but closed off from controlling the chamber, unless O’Rourke can defeat Cruz.

Republicans are working furiously to shore up their position in those races. Rep. Martha McSally and outside Republican groups have spent $8 million on TV since McSally’s late-August primary attacking Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, a scorched-earth campaign dredging up Sinema’s liberal past in an effort to drag down her favorability. But Democrats have spent more than $9 million there in the same time frame, and Sinema has retained a slim lead in most public polling, with early voting set to begin next week.

In Tennessee, former Gov. Phil Bredesen has been polling ahead of GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn in public and private surveys, lifted by independents and moderate Republicans who still have fond memories of his governorship. The Republican cavalry arrived this week hoping to drag down Bredesen: Trump rallied in the state Monday night, and the NRSC, Senate Leadership Fund, Americans for Prosperity Action and the NRA are all airing TV ads this week boosting Blackburn or attacking Bredesen, and a Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Blackburn with a slight lead.

But Democrats see the all-out GOP effort in deep-red Tennessee as a sign of their overall strength.

“Republicans are guarding the goal line here,” said J.B. Poersch, president of Senate Majority PAC.

Still, even Democrats who are optimistic about their path to the majority make clear that they are clear underdogs in the fight for the Senate. Former Sen. Byron Dorgan, who served multiple terms in Democratic leadership, emphasized caution.

“I think early in the cycle, it went from holding our own in the Senate to being cautiously optimistic to taking the Senate back,” Dorgan said.

