House Democrats are heading into the throes of the election haunted by many of the same problems that dogged them in 2016: a Trump-dominated news cycle, a message that’s struggling to break through and sharp divisions within the party about how to fix it.

Now many Democrats say they’re watching nervously as polls start to trend in Republicans’ favor — and worry they’re witnessing the beginning of a slow-motion train wreck that they have no idea how to stop.


There are still widespread disagreements within the diverse 193-member caucus about what campaign message Democrats should rally around in the final months before the midterms and even who should be the party’s chief messenger.

Some Democrats worry a rerun of the Republican playbook employed in the past several cycles — painting House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as the GOP’s central villain — will again be successful in denying them the House majority.

Other members say the caucus’ main problems are internal. Democrats on the far ends of the party's ideological spectrum continue to battle over what their focus should be in the election — and how much of it should center on President Donald Trump.

“People get caught up in the anti-Trump messaging. That’s what the messaging has been,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.).

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“The Democrats focus so much on Trump and the carnival that is around him that we don’t spend enough time talking about who we are and what we will do if the voters give us a chance in the majority.”

While Democrats still have their best chance in years at winning back the House, a memo from Democratic super PAC Priorities USA last week sounded alarms about many of the anxieties that have been coursing through the caucus in recent weeks.

According to the memo, Democrats have become too focused on reacting to Trump, while the president has continued to trumpet the GOP tax bill and its economic benefits, giving him a slow but increasing advantage in polls.

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) called the memo “spot on,” adding it “crystallized” concerns he’s been expressing recently.

“There are some real issues that we need to pound — and I mean pound relentlessly — if we’re going to win in the districts we need to win in,” said Ryan, who ran against Pelosi as minority leader after the 2016 election. “We better come around to that fact rather quickly. It’s February already.”

Democrats received encouraging news on Monday with the release of a new map for congressional districts in Pennsylvania that puts several additional seats in play. And Democrats are still beating Republicans on the generic ballot: The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Democrats a nearly 7-point advantage.

Still, the party's lead has been narrowing for weeks. The latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed the Democratic advantage erased completely. It had Republicans with a 1-point lead on the generic ballot and Trump gaining in favorability (although 47 percent of those polled still disapprove of the job he's doing).

Combine that with recent polls showing the GOP tax bill, which Pelosi last year derided as “Armageddon,” increasing in popularity, and Democrats are on edge.

Some lawmakers attributed the GOP favorability bump to Democrats shouldering the blame for shutting down the government for three days in January over Dreamers. They believe that will fade well before November.

But other Democrats said they see the beginnings of a Republican recovery. They said the caucus should be prepared to quickly shift course in its messaging if the polls continue to drift away from Democrats.

“We should be winning the tax-cut argument, not losing it,” said Rep. Filemon Vela (D-Texas). “Republicans making headway is evidence we need to do a much better job at it.”

Vela suggested that Massachusetts Rep. Richard Neal, ranking member on the Ways and Means Committee, should be Democrats’ lead messenger against the tax bill, not Pelosi, given Republicans’ reliance on her as a campaign cudgel.

Other Democrats say the problem is not necessarily Pelosi herself but how she has chosen to combat the GOP tax law. The minority leader described benefits to the middle class — such as pay bumps or bonuses handed out by businesses after its passage — as “crumbs” compared with the tax breaks corporations received.

“I would not use crumbs personally, and I think a lot of Blue Dogs would not use crumbs,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), a leader of the centrist coalition.

House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) added: “I think for people making $40,000 a year, any increase in their take-home is significant for them, and I don’t want to diminish that at all.”

Cuellar and other members said such language, which Pelosi repeated as recently as Thursday, can be used to paint the party as out of touch. It's a charge Republicans already level frequently at the San Francisco Democrat.

“Language is important, and we have to be very careful that we don’t insult people by saying that the amount of money they get is crumbs,” Cleaver said. “We cannot be seen as patricians.”

Drew Hammill, Pelosi's spokesman, defended her use of the word "crumbs."

“Big corporations and the wealthy are overwhelmingly using the GOP tax scam to line their own pockets, giving workers only a tiny fraction of what their labor has earned," he said in a statement. Hammill later added that the "stampede" of Republicans retiring from the House reflects a "toxic" atmosphere confronting the GOP in the election.

For the next several months, House Democrats plan to refocus on the negative impact of the GOP’s tax plan and ideas proposed in Trump’s just-released budget, according to one lawmaker with knowledge of the messaging strategy. Pelosi also sent members a "dear colleague" letter last week reiterating the need to focus on economic issues.

“Simplicity and repetition,” the lawmaker said, noting the goal was to keep members focused on the economic message and not Trump's daily distractions.

For now, several members said they’re closely watching the March 13 special House election in Pennsylvania.

Democratic nominee Conor Lamb is running a competitive campaign in a district that Trump won by 20 points in 2016. But Lamb, despite vowing not to support Pelosi in November, has been hammered by Republican ads tying him to the Democratic leader in recent weeks.

“Nancy Pelosi is calling your tax cuts 'crumbs' and 'pathetic,'” the narrator says in one recent ad from House Republicans’ campaign arm. “Conor Lamb sounds just like her.”

Democratic leaders have tried to downplay the race, and national Democrats are mostly staying out of the district. But other members are paying close attention.

“It is a slightly Republican district, but in a year that we’re talking about winning 30, 40, 50 seats, we should be able to win this seat, and I think we can win this seat,” Ryan said. “I think it’s one [race] that will tell us a lot one way or another.”

Not everyone is ready to pull the fire alarm. Some members stress there’s a lot of time between now and November for Democrats to correct course and voters to become further disenchanted with Trump and GOP control of Washington.

“The rats are leaving the sinking ship,” Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said of the string of recent House Republican retirements expected to benefit Democrats. “Everybody should stop freaking the eff out.”

