Who do you think is the most clutch shooter in the NBA today? Maybe it’s a stud on your favorite team. A guy you can count on in the final moments of a big game. The centerpiece of the team that settles your nerves when he holds the ball in his hands on the final possession of a tight game. Reflect on this player – this hero – for their valiant efforts your memory selectively recalls.

Guess what. That player sucks.

That’s right. I don’t care who you picked. You’ll soon see that your hero in clutch moments is a fraud. But before going into specifics, a proper explanation for what constitutes as “clutch” is required. There’s no universal definition so allow me a few moments to properly codify one for the sake of humanity:

Clutch Shooter Defined

A clutch shooter is one who performs better than replacement level players in shooting situations in which the outcome of the shot drastically changes the strategy for either team. Specifically, at the time of the shot, the score must be either tied or the shooter’s team must be down by three or less in the final 30 seconds of a game for a shot to truly qualify as clutch.

The reason three is the cutoff for points down is that if down by four or more, a single shot at the end of the game is potentially meaningless. So while some shots outside of a three-point deficit we might all agree are clutch were not included in this research, all shots that ARE included definitely were clutch. And for this research, I’m upping the ante on this definition by only looking at playoff data. Only the clutch of the clutch matters here. Oh, your favorite player made a game winning shot in the regular season when their record was already 57-12? Who cares? The playoffs are different. They’re purer. Each and every playoff game matters.

So let’s get to this. Who are the clutch shooters today and just how bad do they all suck?

To determine who today’s most relevant “clutch” stars are, I took the last 6 years of playoff data (2014 – 2019) to see which players in today’s game attempted the most clutch qualifying shots in that span. The top five current players include Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. While LeBron and Kawhi didn’t have as many in this span, a proper analysis is incomplete without them. Next, I used NBA Advanced Stats to compute each of these player’s career FG percentage while tied or down three or less in the playoffs at the following time in game remaining intervals (30 seconds, 1,2,3,4, and 5 minutes). This includes any OT period as well.

Results: