After Week 14, the NFC playoff teams are all but set. We know the Rams and Saints are in from the West and South. Chicago and Dallas will almost certainly represent the North and East respectively. After Seattle’s win over Minnesota, it’s very likely they’ll be the first Wildcard. That’s only five teams. The final playoff spot in the NFC will be decided by the ugliest dog fight in the history of ugly dog fights.



Currently, the 6-6-1 Vikings hold the final playoff ticket, but teams are hot on their tail. You’ve got the 6-7 Eagles, the 6-7 Panthers, and the 6-7 Redskins (I’ll include them for record purposes, but they’re not going anywhere). Behind them, still within shouting distance, are the 5-7-1 Packers.

Remove the Redskins, and look at those four teams. Think about what they have in common. It doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s interesting when you think about it.

Bob Leverone/ Associated Press

In the past three years, out of the six teams to play in the NFC Championship, those are four of them. Two of those teams have the QBs who started those games, Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers, who, mind you, have also played in Super Bowls (also maybe Foles if this Wentz injury is serious). The other two teams, despite their lack of QB experience in those big games (again potential Super Bowl MVP sighting this week), are led by the defenses that brought them to the NFC Championship just last year.

(I’m sure you remember that forgettable 38-7 throttling of the Vikings at the hands of the underdog Eagles.)

Obviously, this doesn’t mean everything. Experience doesn’t guarantee winning, but it’s a part of the formula. Playoff football is a different animal, and the home team, or favorite for that matter, isn’t guaranteed a damn thing. You might think an 8-or-9-win Wildcard wouldn’t be able to hang with an 11-or-12-win Chicago or Dallas team, and you might be right, but in the NFL, strange things can happen.

Go back to that three-year window, and Wildcard teams are 6-6 against division winners in that time. Beyond that, in instances when the Wildcard has a worse record, which has happened seven times, the Wildcard is 4-3. To put that into perspective, seven teams with worse records, on the road, in playoff games, went 4-3. There’s a lot of factors that go into those games, but that stat isn’t an accident. Wildcard teams have just as good of a shot of winning a playoff game as division winners do. The storm just has to be perfect.

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So, what does that perfect storm look like? I’d say it starts with a team that’s hot. A team that has to win games to get into the playoffs. Someone who’s in playoff mode a few weeks early solely because they have to be if they want any shot. I’d say that whichever team ends up taking the spot will be. They’re obviously not going to get in by losing.

Beyond being hot, it’s important to have a team that’s played a playoff game before. A team that maybe has a QB who’s started a playoff game or two, (hey Kirk, Cam, Aaron) or maybe a couple of guys on defense who’ve done so (that’s you Clay, Kuechly, the entire Vikings D and those guys who carried Nick Foles to a Super Bowl).

Lastly, you have to be going up against a team who doesn’t have those things, and a weakness that can be exposed. A team with a QB who’s never seen the postseason, or a young defensive core that features many guys who haven’t seen the playoffs.

A team who for some reason has this little seed of doubt that has manifested into a large belief that, come playoff time, they just can’t beat that pesky Wildcard.

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Almost like one man leading a Wildcard could be the killer of an entire great team.

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Or something like that.

Regardless, it may mean nothing. The Falcons fit this role last year and took care of business against a young, inexperienced Rams team as a Wild Card. Then fell the next week to Philly. In fact, that’s been the fate of all six of the aforementioned Wildcard winners since 2015. There hasn’t been a Wildcard to win multiple playoff games since the 12-4 49ers did in the 2013 season, and even they lost in the NFC Championship. The last time a Wildcard appeared in a Super Bowl was in 2011. Interestingly enough that team went on to win it all, becoming the sixth Wildcard to do so. Who was that again?

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Oh. Good thing that can’t happen this year…

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