Even though most football games consist of about 120 plays when it’s all said and done, they actually end up coming down to just a handful. On Thursday night, when the Panthers faced off against the Eagles in Charlotte, one of those plays came late in the third quarter with the Panthers down 21-16. The defense had held the Eagles offense to three yards over their last nine plays and were gearing up for a 3rd-and-16 from the Eagles 19. If they forced a fourth down, the game remains a one score affair and the Panthers get the ball with good field position just before the start of the fourth quarter. However, the Eagles had other plans and would convert the third down and eventually score three plays later.

via GIPHY

The Panthers come out in a nickel-blitz package that shows both a double-a gap blitz as well as a nickel blitz off the edge while the Eagles come out in an unbalanced shotgun formation with an 11 personnel grouping. At the snap, both David Mayo and Shaq Thompson drop into coverage while Captain Munnerlyn blitzes. The running back runs a delayed stab route and the tight end runs a delayed flat route while the left outside receiver runs a tall curl, the right slot receiver runs a wide turn(fade and go) while the right wide out running a tall in or tall slant.

As Wentz is dropping back, he immediately glances left and sees Kevon Seymour above his receiver. He then glances at safety Jairus Byrd to see where he is headed, looks towards his slot receiver, sees that he has inside leverage and starts to throw when he sees Munnerlyn crashing in. Munnerlyn hesitates when he sees Wentz look his way because he knows the tight end is directly behind him and Wentz has been slipping away from would-be sackers all night. As Wentz steps up in the pocket, he realizes that Mayo has decided to break on his slot receiver leaving an open area behind him and in front of Byrd, his third receiver cuts towards the vacant area. Wentz gets the throw off before Munnerlyn can take him down and the Eagles pick up an all-important first down.

via GIPHY

There are a number of things that could have changed the outcome of this play. If Munnerlyn doesn’t hesitate, Wentz either takes the sack or launches the ball towards his slot receiver. If he gets that throw off, David Mayo is in prime position to break it up or intercept it. If Mayo had stepped back into the unoccupied space behind him instead of breaking on the route well before Wentz threw the ball, then Wentz is forced to throw it to his slot receiver or to the tight end in the flat, both of which are well short of the first. If Byrd had gone 15-20 yards deep instead of 25-30 yards deep, then he is in a much better position to make a play on the inward breaking receiver which allows Mayo to break on the slot receiver and gives the Panthers good coverage on everyone besides the tight end in the flat.

Even though the Panthers were losing, the play call was rather aggressive considering it was 3rd-and-16 with a minute and a half left in the third quarter. That being said, ten of the eleven defenders played this correctly; one has to think that if this game had been on Sunday that Byrd may have played it correctly as well with more time and reps in the system.

Even after taking a long look at this play, I still have questions. Why did the Panthers blitz instead of dropping seven or eight into coverage? Why wasn’t Shaq Thompson the one to rush Wentz and Davis the one to drop into coverage? Why wasn’t Kawann Short or Mario Addison in on this play? Did the play actually call for Byrd to be 30 yards deep and if so, why?

Ron Rivera said after the loss to the Saints in Week 3 that had four or five plays gone differently, the Panthers would have won that game. After Thursday’s game, he lowered that number to one or two plays. If one or two plays go slightly differently, the Panthers are 5-1 and on top of the world; this was one of those plays.