Chris Christie, Vincent Prieto, Stephen M. Sweeney

Gov. Chris Christie is the man in charge, but he can't accomplish anything without agreement from the two men behind him, Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson) and Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Gloucester). Both men wants the millionaires' tax to be part of any pension deal.

(Mel Evans)

State Senate President Stephen Sweeney has a blunt message for Gov. Chris Christie: If he wants to solve the state's fiscal crisis, he'll have to sacrifice the millionaires first.

"The reason the millionaires' tax is so important is it's a show of good faith," says Sweeney (D-Gloucester). "The bottom line is he broke his promise."

That tax won't solve the problem. Public employees are almost certain to face a second round of benefits cuts, at least in their health coverage.

But this time, the state's wealthiest earners are going to have to help. That is now the rallying cry of nearly every leading Democrat, including Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson).

And with polls showing that New Jersey voters agree by a lopsided margin of 2-1, they are not about to yield.

That puts Gov. Chris Christie in an exquisitely painful bind, one that could derail his presidential campaign.

If he agrees to raise taxes on the rich, he will offend the economic royalists who dominate the Republican base. It would probably spell the end of his campaign.

So he faces a stark choice: He can try to cut a deal to solve New Jersey's fiscal crisis, or he can run for president. But he can't do both.

So what will he choose?

People who know Christie well say it's not in his nature to quit this race, that he is an alpha male who is determined to become the most powerful man on earth.

I saw him barnstorming in New Hampshire a few weeks back, and the man clearly has the fever. When the Klieg lights snap on, his pulse quickens.

But I am going to risk it here and make a wild prediction: I think he will cut a deal with Democrats and abandon this race. Better to cut his losses and try again in 2020 or 2024, when he will be just 62 years old.

He has sprinkled around a few clues. Last year he said would announce a decision on his candidacy after the start of the New Year. Then he pushed it back to May or June.

And last week he pushed it back again, saying he'll wait until after the June 30 budget deadline. So we are looking at July.

"You get the budget done, and then there's time to be able to make those announcements when it's appropriate," he said during a campaign swing in Mississippi.

Why is he delaying? There is only one answer: He wants to keep his options open. He's still at least considering quitting.

One thing is certain: This is not about his family. Politicians lie about that as a reflex.

More likely, he is waiting for some encouraging political sign, something to nudge him over the edge.

So it's no wonder he keeps pushing the date back. Because the world has been showing this man no love lately.

Fresh polls show that New Jerseyans, by a landslide margin, believe he would make a terrible president. Republican primary voters seem to agree.

On Bridgegate, New Jerseyans think he's lying by a landslide 3-1 margin. And his deputy chief of staff, Bridget Kelly, is determined to prove at trial that it's "ludicrous" to think senior members of the administration were unaware of this stunt when it was underway. That ghost will continue to haunt.

Then last week, Christie's lawyers went before the Supreme Court to argue that his landmark achievement, the 2011 pension reform, violates the Constitution. That would mean Christie can't be forced to invest in the pension funds, the central promise of that reform.

That's right: Christie is trying to kill his own reform.

So if Christie is looking for some encouraging bit of news, he hasn't found it yet.

Who knows, maybe his non-stop efforts in New Hampshire will give him a boost in the polls, and he'll jump in after all.

If so, say good-bye to the millionaires' tax and any hope of a deal. Christie's campaign might get a sugar high by confronting public workers over their benefits.

But without a deal the pension deficit will grow, the state's credit rating will drop, and the battered economy will take another hit. Christie is smart enough to know that won't play well in the long run.

Christie is tapped in a box now. He has no plausible path to the presidency.

Here's hoping he gives up, and instead applies his enormous political talents to doing the job we elected him to do.

Tom Moran may be reached at tmoran@starledger.com or call (973) 836-4909. Follow him on Twitter @tomamoran. Find The Star-Ledger on Facebook.