In light of today's unfolding events in Egypt, it's worth revisiting the analysis Chris wrote 2 years ago during the overthrowing of the Mubarak regime.

While the power players are now different, the underlying factors persist.

How unbalanced was Egypt? Very. Here are a few quite relevant statistics about Egypt (hat tip to an email from reader Mark O., with credit to Dr. John Coulter) to which I have added a few items: The relentless math: Population 1960: 27.8 million

Population 2008: 81.7 million

Current population growth rate: 2% per annum (a 35-year doubling rate)

Population in 2046 after another doubling: 164 million Rainfall average over whole country: ~ 2 inches per year

Highest rainfall region: Alexandria, 7.9 inches per year

Arable land (almost entirely in the Nile Valley): 3%

Arable land per capita: 0.04 Ha (400 m2)

Arable land per capita in 2043: 0.02 Ha

Food imports: 40% of requirements

Grain imports: 60% of requirements Net oil exports: Began falling in 1997, went negative in 2007

Oil production peaked in 1996

Cost of oil rising steeply

Cost of oil and food tightly linked The future of Egypt will be shaped by these few biophysical facts — a relentless form of math that is hardly unique to Egypt, by the way — and it matters very little who is in power. The interesting part is that these facts have been in plain view for decades, building into economic and social pressures that were suddenly unleashed in a wave of social and political unrest. How was it that such obvious things escaped notice for so long before they suddenly reared up into plain view? Instead of being a surprising exception to the rule, we should instead brace ourselves against the idea that this is just the way things tend to work. Back to the main story. Without persistent (and rising) food imports, Egypt cannot feed itself. It has managed to cover up the shortfall by having enough oil to export, but, like every country, their oil reserves are finite and eventually they'll face a day of reckoning. The oil situation in Egypt has only very recently become an enormous and unavoidable issue.

The re-emergence of political turmoil we're witnessing is quite predictable from the "relentless math" Chris laid out. Or perhaps more directly put: resources don't care about politics.

Meanwhile, world oil prices are beginning to creep higher, as are prices of the precious metals (though not as much as they have historically in reaction to such geo-political risk). Strangely enough, equity markets have yet to show much concern for Egypt's troubles. Or Portugal's, Or Greece's. Or Brazil's. Or Turkey's. Etc….

That could change quickly.