Florida Democrats saddled with Hillary-Bernie and generational divide

POWER STRUGGLE: An examination of fault lines in Florida's two parties and how they will shape the coming session

► Day 1: Democrats and the generational divide

► Day 2: Republicans feud over the spoils of power

► Day 3: The Session and five issues to watch

Florida Democrats are dogged by a math problem.

They outnumber Republicans by a quarter-of-a-million voters but routinely lose statewide elections. They lack the numbers to stop Republican proposals in the Florida Legislature.

Since 1994 only former President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson have been able to meld the Democratic coalition into a winning team.

The Florida Legislature meets Tuesday to begin debating how to spend $87 billion. Democrats, outnumbered in both chambers, can do little more than complain about decisions the Republicans make.

Despite a rising tide of anger toward the White House nationally, few expect the circumstances to change anytime soon.

North Florida activists and political operatives say one obstacle is that Baby Boomer Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders supporters have not made peace after the bitterly contested Democratic presidential primaries of 2016.

That dispute is compounded, academics and voting experts say, by generation Xers and millennials' rejection of traditional political parties and the tactics they use. That's a far bigger factor for Democrats since their coalition relies more heavily on the younger voter than does the GOP.

“Hillary Clinton lost Florida because the younger turnout was lower,” said University of South Florida political science professor Susan MacManus.

The under-50 group makes up half of all Florida voters. But turnout for their youngest segment was off by about 15 percent in a general election decided by one point.

“She couldn’t reach them like Sanders did. They didn’t particularly like her, so they stayed home,” said MacManus, who has been writing about voting trends since the mid-1990s.

Generational schisms plague both parties, MacManus said. But the Democrats' moderate versus progressive inter-party feud is compounded by their younger voters wandering away after their candidate loses a primary battle.

Younger more progressive voters have been a blessing and a curse to the Democratic coalition, University of Central Florida political scientist Aubrey Jewett said. They can provide a winning margin but tend to be less reliable in November than older voters.

"It's always a challenge to keep them excited without alienating the moderates," said Jewett.

"It certainly was part of the equation for Trump winning Florida and for Rick Scott to win by one point — particularly for both of Scott's wins," he quickly added.

Re-energizing those voters is key to Democratic hopes to effectively compete for control of state government. Since 2000, the GOP has won 22 of 26 gubernatorial, cabinet and U.S. Senate races while controlling the Legislature often with near super-majorities.

And while Democrats in Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia reacted to President Donald Trump's first year in office by flipping Republican seats, there is little evidence Florida Democrats can replicate that success.

Democrats became the minority party at the statehouse in 1996 and the party’s activists, consultants, and operatives have been fighting about how it happened ever since.

“After 2016, it is hard to get excited about anything,” said longtime Democratic activist David Jacobsen. “I don’t know if we’re pulling together for the cause.”

It’s been a generation-long tug of war between moderates and progressives. Sen. Bill Nelson and former CFO Alex Sink are the only two candidates who have been able to meld the two factions into a winning formula.

The results are at odds with voter registration numbers: Democrats lead Republicans and no-party affiliated voters in registration.

In Democratic primaries, the moderates prevail — Clinton beat Sanders 2 -1; Charlie Crist beat Nan Rich 3 -1. But despite a two-point edge in voter registration, Democrats went on to lose the general election.

Their progressive allies in the party and among the no-party-affiliated voters have tended to sit out the general election. This leaves the impression that the Democratic coalition is behaving like a couple on the verge of a divorce — members simply don’t like each other.

“It is both the best thing and the most frustrating thing about Democrats everywhere – a hugely diverse demographic makeup,” said Steve Vancore, a Tallahassee pollster, and political analyst.

Jacobsen fears the bitterness of the Clinton-Sanders contest expanded the divide and makes changing the equation at the Capitol even more difficult especially when pitted against a better organized, better funded and more ideologically disciplined GOP.

“For many, it was their first rodeo and they have no grasp in understanding politics,” Jacobsen said of the Sanders’ supporters. “They didn’t seem to understand after a primary you come together. I saw it here in Leon County and in Philadelphia. They are still having a hard time in getting themselves engaged in the Democratic Party.”

While Jacobsen talks about the Democrats' generational divide as an unwelcome family feud, Rep. Ramon Alexander sees the inter-party competition as good and healthy. He compares it to “steel sharpening steel.”

“I don’t see it as a division. It’s different ideas, different perspectives. That is what America is all about. Just because we’re Democrats does not mean we all think the same way,” said Alexander, who represents parts of Leon and Gadsden counties.

The freshman lawmaker believes as long as there is an “appropriate structure” for the debate then the moderates and progressives can unify around “core principles.”

“Success is incumbent on having a transformational leader that understands those values and has the ability to bring people together,” said Alexander.

Florida Democrats have been looking for that leader ever since they wandered into minority status a generation ago.

"Transformational leader? That stems from Barack Obama and the energy he brought to the party," said MacManus. “That’s the trap they always fall into – spending too much on the top of the ticket. You can’t start party building with a transformational leader. Obama was the exception.”

New FDP chair Terrie Rizzo appears to agree with MacManus. When the party was thrown in turmoil by the resignation of the previous chair on sexual harrassment charges, Rizzo won a special election and replaced him in December.

Rizzo promised activists Democrats would pursue a 67-county strategy for the November campaign. But Leon County Democratic Executive Committee chair Andy Janecek said she inherited a financial mess.

Rizzo asked county parties to contribute money to keep eight regional directors working across the state preparing field work for the fall campaign. Earlier this week, she reported back to the group that $250,000 had been raised.

The money may help, but MacManus cautions it ultimately comes down to the candidate. Their November absence is part of the GOP winning equation for the last four state-wide elections.

“Younger Democrats want a different kind of leader. One closer in age,” said MacManus. “Because if they don’t like the person, they don’t show up.”

Reporter James Call can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com.