Cruz vs Hillary Feb,2016. Cruz can’t beat Hillary!!

Cruz has a bit better turnouts rate than Hillary,Rubio.(But still worse than TRUMP.) So if he takes the leads 3% or More I considered those states are lean to Him. and

until 3% behinds it is a swing states for him.





1. Cruz vs Hillary on the Swing States: Total 17 Votes





1) Nevada (6 Electoral votes)

No recent Poll for Cruz since middle of July 2015





2) Maine 2nd District (1 Electoral votes)

No latest Poll data. But in 2014 mid-term election. GOP won in here.





3) Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes

Marquette University(January 21th-24th 2016) Cruz 44% | Hillary 45%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/01/28/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-tight-races-in-wisconsin-presidential-primaries/





2. Cruz vs Hillary on the Swing States. Which are lean to Cruz : Total 48 Votes





1) Iowa (6 Electoral votes)



PPP(January 8-10th 2016) Cruz 45% | Hillary 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf





2) Ohio (18 Electoral votes)

Quinnipiac 2/16-2/20, Live Phone, 1539 LV



Cruz 45% | Hillary 42% (Page 4)



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh02242016_Oiu84jk.pdf





3) Colorado(9 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

Quinnipiac(November 11th-15th 2015) Cruz 51% | Hillary 38%



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf





4) North Carolina (15 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

SurveyUSA 2/14-2/16, 1250 LV Cruz 48% | Hillary 43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736





3. Cruz vs Hillary on the Swing States. Which are lean to Hillary : Total 92 Votes





1) Florida(29 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

PPP (2/24-2/25, IVR,1012 RV) Cruz 39% | Hillary 47%

(Well it’s 2% gap. but with Turnouts factor, I Classify Florida is lean to TRUMP )



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf





2) Michigan (16 Electoral votes)

PPP (June 25th-28th 2015) Cruz 39% | Hillary 47%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_6302015.pdf





3) Minnesota (10 Electoral votes)

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon (1/18-1/20 2016) Cruz 40% | Hillary 45%

http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-results-presidential-race/366232021/





4) New Hampshire: (4 Electoral votes)



UMass Lowell/7News (2/5-2/7 2016) Cruz 40% | Hillary 45%



http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-8%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230870.pdf





5) Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes)



PPP(October 8th ~October 11th ) Cruz 40% | Hillary 46%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_101515.pdf





6) Virginia: 13 Electoral votes

Roanoke College (1/18-1/26 2016) Cruz 41% | Hillary 45%



http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Jan2016.Topline_Exit%20poll.pdf





But Donald TRUMP can beat Hillary!!





1. Swing States : Total 13 Electoral Votes



1) Iowa (6 Electoral votes)



PPP(January 8-10th 2016) TRUMP 42% | Hillary 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf





2) Nevada (6 Electoral votes)

No recent Poll since middle of July





3) Maine 2nd District (1 Electoral votes)

No latest Poll data. But in 2014 mid-term election. GOP won in here.







1-2. Swing States which are lean to TRUMP : Total 107 Electoral votes





1) Florida(29 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

PPP (2/24-2/25, IVR,1012 RV) TRUMP 46% | Hillary 44%

(Well it’s 2% gap. but with Turnouts factor, I Classify Florida is lean to TRUMP )



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf





2) Colorado(9 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

Quinnipiac(November 11th-15th 2015) TRUMP 48% | Hillary 37%



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf





3) Michigan (16 Electoral votes)

FOX 2 Detroit (Jan 25th 2016) TRUMP 47% | Hillary 43%



(Well it’s 4% gap. but with Turnouts factor, I Classify Michigan is lean to TRUMP )



http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/83147628-story







4) North Carolina (15 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

SurveyUSA 2/14-2/16, 1250 LV TRUMP 45% | Hillary 43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736





5) Ohio (18 Electoral votes)



Quinnipiac 2/16-2/20, Live Phone, 1539 LV



TRUMP 44% | Hillary 42% (Page 4)



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh02242016_Oiu84jk.pdf







6) Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes)



PPP(October 8th ~October 11th ) TRUMP 45% | Hillary 43%

(Well it’s 2% gap. but with Turnouts factor, I Classify Pennsylvania is lean to TRUMP )



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_101515.pdf





1-3. Swing States which are lean to Hillary : Total 37 Electoral votes





1) Minnesota (10 Electoral votes)

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon (1/18-1/20 2016) TRUMP 38% | Hillary 43%

http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-results-presidential-race/366232021/







2) New Hampshire: (4 Electoral votes)



UMass Lowell/7News (2/5-2/7 2016) TRUMP 40% | Hillary 45%



http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-8%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230870.pdf







3) Virginia: 13 Electoral votes

Roanoke College (1/18-1/26 2016) TRUMP 35% | Hillary 52%



http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Jan2016.Topline_Exit%20poll.pdf







4) Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes



Marquette Law School (2/18-2/21 2016) TRUMP 37% | Hillary 47%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/02/25/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-tight-democratic-race-trump-maintaining-republican-lead-in-wisconsin/

