It is an endorsement of the approach Mr Turnbull has taken to the tax reform debate in which he has kept all options on the table, including a GST hike to 15 per cent, as part of a number of unspecified changes, but always accompanied by an assurance to voters that the most vulnerable would not be disadvantaged. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten at Parliament House. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen After two months in the job, Mr Turnbull has catapulted ahead of his Labor rival, Bill Shorten, and now leads as preferred prime minister 69 per cent to 18. And the bad news keeps on coming for the ALP in the November Fairfax-Ispsos poll, with the Coalition ahead strongly after preferences with a 56 per cent share of the vote, compared with Labor's 44 per cent. That is according to the preference flows at the 2013 election. When the 1402 respondents were asked which party would get their second preferences, the Coalition lead widened to 57 to 43.

Underpinning the strong support for the government is an eyebrow-raising jump in primary support for the government to 48 per cent – up 3 points in a month – and a corresponding collapse of primary support for the ALP to just 29 per cent, down 1 since the already surprising 30 per cent finding in October. If confirmed in subsequent polls, the disparity will bring pressure on Mr Shorten's leadership because it would suggest Labor had not only lost any chance of winning the 2016 election, but had actually gone backwards since being trounced in 2013. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may have a historic opportunity to enact wider tax reform. Credit:Gary Ramage Labor lost the election in September 2013 after a disastrous period of infighting and leadership changes, securing a primary vote of 33 per cent to the Coalition's 46. Pollster Jessica Elgood said this was "the lowest approval rating Bill Shorten has ever received since becoming Leader of the Opposition and matches the low figures Tony Abbott achieved in January 2015, before the first leadership spill motion".

Illustration: Ron Tandberg. "That said, during his first term as Liberal Party leader, Malcolm Turnbull also received approval ratings as low as 31 per cent [August 2009]." The number of voters who approve of the way Mr Turnbull is performing in his job has reached the record-high proportions of Kevin Rudd at his height, driven by an approval rating of 69 per cent, which is dented only slightly by a disapproval rate of 16 per cent for a net rating of plus 53 per cent. In Mr Shorten's case, the number of voters approving of his performance as Opposition Leader at 29 per cent, is dwarfed by those who disapprove on 57 per cent. This gives the Labor leader a net approval rating of minus 28 per cent.

The findings of the poll reflect what appears to be an accelerating trend away from Labor and back to the Coalition in the period since Mr Turnbull replaced the less popular Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. With the nationwide survey taken over the three evenings of November 12-14, it is likely some of the respondents would have been affected by the terrorist tragedy dominating news bulletins from Saturday. This may have led to an increase in conservative support as it is generally regarded as the side of politics best equipped to provide strong leadership in defence and security matters. Ms Elgood said that when asked if they would support an increase to the GST if it were accompanied by other tax cuts and compensation for households with income less than $100,000, "a slim majority", at 52 per cent, would support the change. Among Coalition voters, that support jumped sharply to 65 per cent, and was even safely above half among Greens voters at 54 per cent. Only in the category of Labor voters was an increase opposed, even if other measures were instituted, with GST support at 41 per cent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 per cent.

The two-party-preferred vote of 56-44 represents a swing to the Coalition of 2.5 per cent since the 2013 election, more than vindicating the switch to Mr Turnbull from Mr Abbott, under whose leadership the next election looked anything but safe. Labor remains steadfastly opposed to a GST increase believing its position reflects the vast bulk of ordinary voters. It is a position informed by its own research and anecdotal evidence, and reinforced by this poll, which shows a higher GST is backed by just 28 per cent of voters. But when other sweeteners are included, such as lower income tax rates, and perhaps changes to stop the wealthy from exploiting superannuation tax breaks as a kind of legalised tax haven, that 28 jumps to more than half. That gives the government something to work with, and suggests if Mr Turnbull can articulate an argument, including by explaining "why" reform must occur, he can win the argument and thus win the next election.

Under pressure in Parliament, he has described as "inconceivable" the suggestion that the regressive nature of a GST increase would be used to worsen the relative burden carried by the lowest paid. Support for an increased GST differed according to income group, with wealthier voters more inclined to a bigger GST than the less well off, i.e. those who would proportionately pay more of their income under an expanded GST. Follow us on Twitter