Never mind the outrageous predictability of the Oscar results for a moment, and pretend some shock value did and may still exist when they hand out the little gold men.

Given the high volume of other meaningless precursor awards that are handed out leading up to the prestigious Academy Awards, it's quite easy to foresee which films, actors and crew members will walk away winners as each year passes.

With the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the Broadcast Film Critics Awards, the Independent Spirit Awards, the National Board of Review, the Critics Circle Awards and the other 274 groups that hand out recognition for the year-in-film helping to forecast the Oscars, could it be any easier?

While it looks like "The King's Speech" is poised to dominate on Sunday, let us look into the past (as recent as last year) when the envelope said a few things we didn't expect. After all, it could happen again this weekend with potential upsets from Hailee Steinfeld, Annette Bening, Geoffrey Rush and "The Social Network," but we'll see.

Here are nine of the biggest upsets in Oscar history:

1. "Shakespeare in Love" stuns "Saving Private Ryan"

Honestly, Miramax chief and notorious Oscar campaigner

Harvey Weinstein

's outright burglary of what was rightfully

Steven Spielberg's

best picture Oscar should go down as one of the great crimes of the 20th Century. Spielberg's World War II epic was as much of a sure thing as the ceremony's long history had ever seen, yet Weinstein's late push somehow guilt-tripped or hypnotized voters into tapping the fluffy historical comedy. While a worthy nominee, "Shakespeare in Love" was no "Private Ryan," and even Harrison Ford looked a little flustered at the outcome when he read from the envelope. The win set a nasty precedent for future bitter studio campaigning, when the art could not speak for itself any longer -- not that it hadn't happened in the past. Politics have always played a role in what is named the "best film" of the year. But if it taught us anything at all, it was to never take the Oscars seriously again. What a joke.

2. Martin Scorsese ousted by Robert Redford, Kevin Costner

Arguably Scorsese's two finest achievements, "Raging Bull" (1980) and "Goodfellas" (1990) lost out to a pair of actors-turned-directors in Redford with "Ordinary People" and Costner with "Dances with Wolves," respectively. Let's not discredit those achievements, but let's also not argue those films are remotely better than Scorsese's opuses, which should have either merited directing or picture honors. Some will always look back and laugh at this result, and they might be right, but at least Scorsese got his sympathy vote in 2006 when his good-enough gangster flick "The Departed" stifled its weak competition, after years of Academy neglect. Thank goodness George Clooney didn't have a horse in the race.

Watch Redford's acceptance speech.

Watch Costner's acceptance speech.





3. Adrien Brody blindsides Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, Halle Berry

There was little doubt either Day-Lewis ("Gangs of New York") or Nicholson ("About Schmidt") would walk away with yet another Oscar before virtual unknown Adrien Brody benefited from a split vote. The teary newcomer strutted up to the stage in front of a standing ovation prior to planting a deep smooch on presenter Berry, who happily went along for the ride. Brody's powerful performance certainly was deserving, as he also overcame industry veterans like

Michael Caine

("The Quiet American") and

Nicolas Cage

("Adaptation"), but his long and heartfelt speech erased any skepticism over the result and established the kid as a legitimate leading man. Plus, you'll never see four losing nominees (all previous winners) look as genuinely pleased to see a fellow actor win.

4. "Crash" knew how to quit "Brokeback Mountain" (2004)

Paul Haggis' race relation ensemble drama winning the big prize still angers most movie fans, who consider this a pivotal moment in the ceremony's history of shenanigans. While "Crash" is indeed heavy-handed and, ahem, slightly forward in its particularly obvious message, it's hard to deny the emotional intensity of several of the film's dramatic sequences.

Ang Lee's

cowboy romance "Brokeback Mountain" had previously cleaned up the critics' and guild prizes, yet somehow Haggis' film rode a late push and a key Screen Actors Guild victory all the way to the winners' circle, also besting the likes of

"Munich,"

"Good Night, and Good Luck"

and

"Capote."

5. Marisa Tomei awarded an Oscar by a confused Jack Palance?

Reading "Oscar-winner" before Tomei's name shouldn't surprise us lately after powerful turns in "In the Bedroom," "The Wrestler" and "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead." But when your rummaging through the $5 DVD bin at Walmart and pick up a copy of "My Cousin Vinny" with the same description, you might experience a double-take. Most were shocked even by Tomei's nomination and never thought she'd wind up winning, as

Vanessa Redgrave

("Howards End") seemed the likely victor. But presenter and devilish codger Palance opened the envelope and read Tomei's name, much to the surprise and skepticism of critics and viewers who thought he'd read the wrong name. Judging by the shrill screaming upon her win, the reaction seemed generally positive (we hope).

6. "Rocky" knocks out heavyweight trio

Looking back, one might wonder whether there was a better year for film than

"All the President's Men,"

"Network"

and

"Taxi Driver"

in 1976. But never count out the underdog. Sylvester Stallone's now-legendary boxing drama "Rocky" shocked the world by not only getting made in the first place, but also beating out that trio of legitimate film classics. When you experience Rocky Balboa's big fight against egotistical champ Apollo Creed, you might be overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude and joy of the moment and wonder what else could beat it. Yes, we're still talking about the other three films as ones that innovated in the art form nearly 40 years later. But we'll never forget "Rocky," either.

Watch the producers' acceptance speech.





7. Juliette Binoche "steals" Lauren Bacall's sympathy Oscar

For a seasoned acting veteran to finally nab that elusive Oscar, sometimes the Academy must resort to handing out a

but the competition better be relatively weak to justify shafting another worthy nominee. In the case of Bacall ("The Mirror Has Two Faces"), a silver screen legend famous for acting opposite Humprey Bogart, is just wasn't weak enough in 1996. Plenty of naysayers will downplay "The English Patient" as a melodramatic bore, but Binoche provides perhaps all of its emotional resonance in a heartbreaking and genuine performance as a wartime nurse to Ralph Fiennes' badly burned veteran. Needless to say, the room went into a tizzy when Binoche won, and Bacall looked rather miffed at the result. Still the right call, though.

8. Roman Polanski (sort of) comes out of hiding for "The Pianist"

For a while, it felt like every year was Martin Scorsese's year to finally bring home a best directing Oscar, but Polanski's poignant Holocaust drama (justifiably) won the hearts of voters, providing the film's second shock of the night after Brody's win. Of course, due to his rape charges in the U.S., Polanski didn't make the ceremony, but that didn't stop the room from giving a standing ovation, including a classy Scorsese, who would win his Oscar four years later.

9. "Precious" script edges frontrunner Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air"

Reckon there's no "sure thing" at the Oscars, but it sure felt that way for Reitman and co-writer Sheldon Turner's script for "Up in the Air." It previously won nearly every other precursor award leading up to it, giving Reitman all the preparation he needed to make a speech. But in one of the most unexpected twists in recent years, "Precious" screenwriter

name was called, accounting for the film's second award of the night. While "Up in the Air" had a clever thing or two to say about loneliness and the financial crisis, the emotional truth of Fletcher's script reached out and spoke to voters more than anything, making for a pleasant surprise.