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Kicking off the main card at UFC 240 Saturday night in Edmonton, Alberta, is a potential middleweight-bout upset.

Krzysztof Jotko employs a basic stand-up approach, though he’s able to work effectively from the ground. His most recent fight was a three-round decision victory in Russia over a fighter who is considered a journeyman at best. Jotko has faced far superior competition to his opponent Saturday, Marc-Andre Barriault, though he lost all three of his fights previous to his last.

Barriault, a Canadian, lost his debut to a fighter who was a tough, grinding mauler. He learned he had holes in his game and went back to the gym to improve on his grappling.

Jotko must maintain distance and use his awkward southpaw stance and a three-inch reach advantage to keep Barriault in his striking range. Barriault will look to unrelentingly deliver his damage from the inside while smothering the effects of Jotko’s striking.

Jotko may be getting too much credit for his name recognition as opposed to his recent form. Barriault, fighting for his UFC life, is in his home nation and poised to fight his absolute best. Live underdog.

The play: Barriault, +150.