It’s the penultimate episode of Survivor: David vs. Goliath, and as was common this season, we were coming off an epic blindside. Last episode saw alpha nerd Christian face his closest call yet, as his best friend and ally Gabby turned on him with record speed and organized a blindside. It seemed like the tribe was set on voting him out – until he blindsided everyone with his idol, and a surprise maneuver from Mike and Angelina sent Gabby home instead of Alison.

Coming into the next episode, tensions were high. The majority of the tribe had sent Christian home, but he was still there. Nick, Christian’s former Mason-Dixon alliancemate, tried to smooth things over but was clearly still resentful over Christian’s role in Carl’s blindside and planned to get him out as soon as possible. The wild card was Davie, the third member of the “David Bros” who had dominated Survivor this season. He tipped Christian off last week, but his closest ally was still Nick.

The game took another turn with the return of Christian’s idol to the game. Nick immediately put into effect a plan to claim it himself, “finding” a fake idol under the raft and showing it to the entire tribe to make them think there was nothing to look for. It was another clever move in the country lawyer’s resume for the season, but not everyone bought it – and Davie’s suspicions led him to believe it might be time for Nick to go. He had soon hatched a plan with Kara, Alison, and Christian to make Nick the next blindside victim.

Reward challenges don’t usually play a huge role in the game of Survivor, but this episode was different. After a quick race and sandbag toss for a trip to a local club and restaurant, Davie came out on top. He quickly rewarded Nick for choosing him during the family reward last week, and then given one more choice he picked Kara. This despite Angelina making a play to win his choice by reminding everyone – once again – that she sacrificed her shot at immunity so they could have rice. Resentful over not being chosen, she made a big pot of “revenge rice” for herself, Alison, Mike, and Christian back at camp – the latest petty move by the most entertaining female villain since Kass.

Then it was time for immunity, a balancing competition involving a flat disk and small balls which led to many “control your balls” jokes from Jeff Probst. Survivor has been leaning heavily on endurance and balance challenges this season, largely because they’re unpredictable, cheap, and unlikely to cause injuries. An interesting statistic is that no one this season has won immunity more than once, with Alison, Dan, Alec, Christian, Davie, Kara, and now Mike claiming the necklace. Mike was in no danger of going home, and as such the tribe was free to resume scheming.

Nick seemed to pull his butt out of the fire with Davie when he confessed that he had used a fake idol. Davie immediately called off the blindside plan, and switched gears to taking out Alison. But Nick now wanted Davie gone, having been tipped off that Davie was gunning for him by Mike. And then there was the always present possibility of blindsiding Christian. Davie found a hidden idol that was good for only that tribal council – and passed on a game that could double or triple its lifespan if he guessed right while wagering his vote.

We were set up for a classic Survivor Tribal Council with no less than three primary targets when the seven castaways grabbed their torches, and it did not disappoint. A back-and-forth at tribal council only got more heated when Davie played his one-tribal council idol, which led Nick to pull out his fake idol to psych out his rivals and see how they looked. After trying to analyze their faces, he played his real idol. And thus began one of the craziest vote-splits in Survivor history.

Fourteenth Boot of Survivor: David vs. Goliath – Christian Hubicki

Ultimately, while Alison and Mike voted for Davie, and Davie and Christian voted for Alison, it was Nick, Angelina, and Kara who stuck the final knife in the back of Survivor’s “alpha nerd” and finished off the most dominant player of the season. Christian had a surprisingly low-key final episode as he simply had no more cards to play after several crazy escapes. But there’s no question he’s one of the most popular new Survivor contestants in years, and we’ll be seeing him as an All-Star soon enough.

So now we’re at one of the most wide-open finales of Survivor in years. No one in the final six has won more than one immunity challenge. There are no immunity idols or advantages currently in play, although it’s likely one will be re-hidden in the next episode, making it the most valuable idol in the game. The final six has four Goliaths, one of whom has regularly voted with the Davids, and two Davids whose alliance is tentative at best.

Because it’s the final episode, there won’t be any power rankings. Last week in the final power rankings of the season, I ranked Christian dead last and that played out tonight. Instead of power rankings, I will be ranking the final six based on their odds of winning Survivor: David vs. Goliath from worst to first.

6. Alison – 100 to 1

There’s an Alison? The young Goliath doctor hasn’t played a terrible game, staying loyal to her alliance and helping them get an edge at the final episode. But she’s also made virtually no independent moves and has nothing resembling a winning storyarc. She’s easy to eliminate just based on the fact that it’s the finale and we don’t know her at all. The question isn’t if her torch gets snuffed out, it’s when.

5. Angelina – 60 to 1

Angelina has the easiest path to the finals of anyone in Survivor: David vs. Goliath. But that’s not a good thing for her winning chances, as everyone wants her there because they think she can’t win. I think she’s being underestimated a bit – she’s going to make an aggressive case and I could see her winning over a few of the women – but she’s been playing for 100K for a while, not a million.

“Guys, you’re voting for me, right?”

“Right, guys?”

“You’re writing my name down, right?”

“Right?”

4. Davie – 30 to 1

Davie’s easily been one of the biggest fan-favorites of the game. The self-proclaimed “Blerd” came off as an easygoing average joe, but showed a surprising amount of game skill as he engineered some of the biggest blindsides of the game. But he’s at the final six with four members of the other tribe and a ruthless ally who already tried to cut him loose. If Davie gets to the end, his final tribal council will likely resemble Jeremy or Adam’s sweeps. But he’s got the hardest road of anyone, and I think his journey ends in disappointment and an inevitable date with All-Stars.

3. Kara – 15 to 1

Kara’s played an interesting game, being on the right side of the vote in every post-merge vote besides the failed Christian blindside. She’s a good all-around player who has shown challenge skill and persuasive ability. If the Goliaths sweep the end, she’d probably have an easy time convincing the jury that she deserves the win. But she’s got some tricky moves to get there and probably needs some challenge wins – I don’t think she’s in anyone’s final three plans.

2. Mike – 8 to 1

Mike White has quietly played one of the best games this season, as the Hollywood screenwriter stayed “Goliath strong” the entire time and often helped the Davids eliminate themselves. After John and Dan were sent to the jury, he kept the tribe together and became their de facto leader. He’s sent people to the jury without many hard feelings, and has multiple alliances. The big factor working against him? He rich. But if he’s sitting in a final three with forgettable Alison and disliked Angelina, it could be surprisingly easy for him to win the million.

1. Nick – 3 to 1

Nick Wilson has had one of the most exciting Survivor journeys in memory, going from a disastrous first episode where he nearly became the unanimous first boot to the dominant force of the David tribe. Ambitious, ruthless, and effective, he’s had a hand in most of the big blindsides of the season. While he’s in the minority tribe, he has tight connections and possibly an endgame deal with Mike and Angelina. If he gets to the end and faces the jury, he’ll have to face the fallout from his blindsides – but his businesslike approach to the game makes it likely few will hold hard feelings. He’s far closer to Tony Vlachos than Russell Hantz. It won’t be easy, but I have a feeling a humble country lawyer is about to do what they do best – win over a jury.