Giving Wales the same powers over benefits as Scotland could boost the Welsh budget by £200m a year, according to new research from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre.



The finding is revealed in a report which examines how Wales’ finances could be affected if the Welsh Government was given the same control over welfare as the Scottish Government.



In 2016, the UK Government gave Scotland control over 11 welfare benefits and the ability to create new social security benefits in devolved policy areas.



An equivalent package of powers would give Wales responsibility for Disability Living Allowance, Personal Independence Payment and Attendance Allowance, along with smaller benefits including the Cold Weather Payment, Discretionary Housing Payment and Winter Fuel Payment.



Spending per person on these benefits are higher in Wales, but has fallen from 155% of the English level in 2010-11 to 150% in 2017-18. Devolution would entail an initial transfer of funding from the UK government, with different options for how arrangements would change in future years.



The researchers found that using the same funding formula as Scotland could result in a budget surplus for the Welsh Government. Given projections of future need in Wales, no funding option analysed would make devolution financially unsustainable.



First Minister Mark Drakeford has previously said that he wants the case for the devolution of the administration of welfare benefits to be considered. The research has been submitted as written evidence to the National Assembly’s Equality, Local Government and Communities Committee to form part of their inquiry, “Benefits in Wales: options for better delivery”.



Guto Ifan, Wales Fiscal Analysis Research Associate, said: “Because of the higher prevalence of poverty and disability in Wales, it is often assumed any form of welfare devolution would be detrimental to Wales and the Welsh budget.



“But we have researched a number of potential outcomes of an agreed deal with Westminster and found no evidence to suggest devolving benefits to Wales would be financially unsustainable. In fact, if the same benefits as Scotland were governed in Wales, along with a similar funding formula, it could actually lead to a positive financial outcome.”