If you've been reading Global Guerrillas for years, you'll recognize the type of attack I'm about to describe.

It's very similar to the easy (anybody can do it, as opposed to cyber) type of attack on critical systems that be became so popular in Iraq (and were so effective in preventing any meaningful economic recovery, which helped fuel the insurgency). For more: 1, 2, 3, just do a search on the bottom right.

Last year, one or two people shot up a electrical substation in central California that fed Silicon Valley. As is usual in this type of attack, it was successful yet nobody was arrested or hurt -- which makes attacks like this easier to recruit for and easier to repeat.

The attackers initiated the attack at ~1 AM on April 16, 2013 and ended it ~1 hour later. Here's what they did:

Entered two different manholes and cut the communication landlines to the station area (911 service to security monitoring at the substation). ~Sawzall attack.

Systematically shot up the substation. 10 transformers were damaged in on section of the station. ~100 bullets. Here's some surveillance video on YouTube of the attack.

Three transformer banks were also damaged. Bullet holes caused the cooling oil in the banks to leak (52,000 gallons of oil), after that the transformers overheated and shut down to protect themselves. ~

The attack likely had three objectives:

To test the security of the station. From how easily it was accessed (this station was 500ft from a residential area) to response times. Results: few security barriers. It took the police 10 min after shooting reported to respond, it was quiet when the arrived and they left. It took the power company nearly an hour to respond.

To test the efficacy of attacking transformers with a rifle. Two approaches - direct damage and indirect damage via cooling systems. Results: midling. Not that efficacious, but it doesn't have to be.

To estimate the impact of the loss of the station on the surrounding grid. Results: not much, but any more would have been surprising. It wasn't during the peak summer load (most of the rest of the year, the power system has excess capacity and is therefore hard to collapse)

JR

PS: the black art of taking down a grid is network analysis. Find the right node at the right time and an entire region comes down. The more load on the system (afternoon + late summer + heat wave) or in combination with a denial of supply (from out of state based load suppliers) the bigger the cascade of failure.

PPS: I'm going to be speaking at the World War D conference at the end of March. I'm going to focus the talk on disruptions. I'm staying a second day (April 1) to engage in a couple of breakout sessions.