Opinion: Which Democrats have what it takes to beat Trump? Not Biden or Warren

Scott Jennings | Opinion contributor

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Hearing former Vice President Joe Biden call an Iowa farmer a “damn liar” the other day — and then watching Biden challenge that same 83-year-old man to a push-up contest, a foot race and an IQ test — made me wonder: What would it actually take to beat Donald Trump, and which of the Democratic candidates possesses that quality?

Biden’s style — a poor man’s Jed Bartlet meets Bizarro Popeye — seems unlikely to succeed. According to Democrats, we already have an ill-tempered, gaffe-prone elderly bully in the White House with a blind spot for his children. Why would they nominate someone so similar?

I subscribe, rather, to the Extreme Pendulum Swing Theory of Presidential Displacement, wherein changing the party in power requires the total opposite of the current chief executive. Not in policy, necessarily, but in style and attitude.

In 1980, a feckless and besweatered Jimmy Carter gave way to the robust Ronald Reagan, whose strong and confident approach offered a shot in the arm to a country that had been down itself for over a decade.

In 1992, fuddy-duddy throwback George H. W. Bush lost to the cool and modern Bill Clinton. A lifetime of service? Please. This guy plays the saxophone on late-night TV!

In 2000, George W. Bush restored “honor and dignity to the White House.” After eight years of personal scandal and drama, the nation turned to a moral, conservative family man as it punished Al Gore for Bill Clinton’s numerous sins.

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In 2008, the sales job was easy — America wants its seat back at the cool kids’ table. Barack Obama forms articulate and complete sentences, shoots hoops, hangs with celebrities and sounds like he has all the answers. Sold.

And in 2016, a nation no longer concerned with experience bought Donald Trump’s anti-elite pitch, as he railed against the elitist in the White House and the one opposing him. With the country having lurched too far left too fast, Trump’s job was easy.

So which 2020 Democrats provide enough opposite magic? There are three: Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang.

For reasons already explored, Biden is too much of a bully and a blowhard to fit this theory. Elizabeth Warren seems like an opposite on her face, but is she? For all the carping Democrats do about Trump making things up, Warren’s penchant for whoppers makes her a future Burger King franchisee. And she lacks a contrasting optimism to boot. Warren’s angrier about the personal hardships she made up than most people are about their real travails.

Mike Bloomberg? Septuagenarian New York City billionaire with an authoritarian streak who pisses people off on the regular. A reboot with different hair. And Bernie Sanders’ “get off my lawn” angry white man populism seems all too familiar.

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But Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Yang — while not exactly the ’27 Yankees of American politics — represent a near opposite choice. And Democrats often gravitate to and win with “nerdy wonks,” according to one Democratic strategist I trust.

In Buttigieg, you have a young, Ivy League-educated Navy veteran who speaks softly and offers a contrasting attitude regarding America’s place in the world. He enjoys Middle America street cred while espousing big-city liberal values. His biggest similarity to Trump? St. Pete’s confidence and ambition far outstrip his experience. Somewhere, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker is screaming (crying?) into a pillow watching Buttigieg’s rise and, I suppose, stands ready to fill this slot should the South Bend mayor falter.

Klobuchar, another Midwesterner, is a U.S. senator with real-deal political experience. Her deliberate and understated style (at least in public) is the opposite of bombastic. Nominating a woman plays to the gaping gender gap that has opened on Trump’s job approval. Her most Trump-like trait could be in the way she treats staff in private, if you believe the stories. Think Hillary Clinton without the nine tons of baggage and condescension.

Yang is a details-oriented Asian technocrat who, as he often says, likes math. He’s young and has worked in the modern economy as well as the non-profit sector. He appears to be having fun — how novel! While I find him to be Trump’s opposite in almost every way, his one similarity comes in his instinct that impeachment is "a loser" for Democrats.

“If all that happens is all of the Democrats are talking about impeachment that fails, then it seems like there is no vision,” Yang said. “It seems like all we can do is throw ineffective rocks at Donald Trump, and then it ends up leading unfortunately toward his re-election.”

I still consider Trump the favorite, although his struggles with women and college-educated whites are real political problems. To ride the pendulum fully across America’s political axis in 2020 and turn Election Day into Opposite Day, Democrats might find their best chance among this threesome.

Scott Jennings is a Republican adviser, CNN political contributor, and partner at RunSwitch Public Relations. He can be reached at Scott@RunSwitchPR.com or on Twitter @ScottJenningsKY.