Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene fears medical impact of failure to prepare for global heating over next 25 years

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

The climate crisis represents the biggest threat to the future of global health over the next quarter of a century, according to a survey of top medical professionals.

The vast majority of members of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, some of whom are responsible for significant discoveries in tropical diseases that plague poorer countries, believe governments and health bodies are failing to prepare adequately for the medical impacts of global heating.

They also expressed concern that “misinformation and anti-science” posed a dangerous threat to the future of healthcare.

Mass migration, new and emerging diseases, and the impact on health and nutrition of climate-ravaged food supplies were among the top concerns of Royal Society members when asked to predict global health challenges over the next 25 years.

The climate emergency will also worsen existing problems, the report found, with increased sea temperatures and levels leading to “a higher incidence of water-borne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and shellfish poisoning”. The study – entitled “What does the next 25 years hold for global health?” – offered a “snapshot” of opinion at a time of political uncertainty and growing inequality, the society said.

Drug resistance and emerging epidemics came second and third respectively among the top concerns identified by society members polled across six continents. About 87% said governments are not investing enough to tackle all the big health challenges over this period.

However, despite these issues, 53% of members remained optimistic about the future of global healthcare. Roughly 67% believed that polio would be eradicated, and 56% predicted guinea-worm would be gone by 2025.

Tamar Ghosh, chief executive of the Royal Society, said: “There can be no doubt we are facing multiple, serious health challenges, but it’s easy to forget that we have made huge progress in the past 25 years and have the opportunity to take yet more great leaps forward in the next quarter of a century.”

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Technology had improved healthcare systems, according to 97% of those polled, while two-thirds thought a new company would emerge and disrupt the way healthcare is delivered.

Members predicted the next 25 years would bring an increase in non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and cancer. A rise in drug-resistant diseases, sexually transmitted infections and emerging infectious diseases was also predicted.

The Royal Society polled more than 600 fellows, members and the wider tropical health community across 79 countries. It launched the report at the European congress on tropical medicine and international health, held in Liverpool this week.