Hillary Clinton speaks in Miami. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images Poll: Clinton holds slim lead over Trump among likely Florida voters Clinton's favorable numbers are low, not much better than Trump's

Hillary Clinton has a marginal 2-point lead over Donald Trump among likely Florida voters, according to a new Mason-Dixon Research & Associates poll that shows the Republican is far more disliked than the Democrat.

Clinton’s 44–42 percent advantage over Trump doesn’t mean she’s well-liked. Only 35 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, while 45 percent view her unfavorably in the Mason-Dixon poll of 625 likely Florida voters. Trump’s favorable support clocks in at just 29 percent, with 52 percent holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The error margin for the poll is 4 points.


“Who knows what’s going to happen in two months with these two candidates? Nothing would surprise me,” said Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon's pollster. “The race is basically tied, and really anything can happen.”

Hispanics back Clinton by 63–27 percent over Trump and African-Americans by an eye-popping spread of 91–5 percent. Women support Clinton 51-37 percent over Trump.

Trump is clobbering her among non-Hispanic whites by 54–29 percent. Men support him over Clinton by 47–36 percent.

Independent or unaffiliated voters support Trump by 44–30 percent over Clinton. And he leads among Republicans by 78–10 percent. Clinton has relatively more support in her party and leads Trump 83–7 percent among Democrats.

Coker said Clinton has an overall advantage over Trump because an increasing share of the electorate is non-white. But Trump has shown signs that he’s able to attract non-traditional voters.

“The wildcard factor, at least as we saw during the primary, was that Trump brought in voters who weren’t regular participants,” Coker said. “But if she holds the Obama coalition together, she probably wins.”

The Mason-Dixon poll shows that Libertarian Gary Johnson runs far behind, with 6 percent support. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is getting just 2 percent of the theoretical vote.

Earlier this week, a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll had Trump beating Clinton 44–41 percent. POLITICO Florida did not write a standalone story about that survey due to a lack of data about the demographics of the poll and the support for each candidate broken down by race and party affiliation.

Except for a few recent outliers, most recent Florida polls have shown a close race, which comes as no shock in a state where the last three top-of-the-ticket races have been decided by about a single percentage point.

“I don’t what tomorrow’s going to bring,” Coker said. “It’s almost Labor Day in Florida. And the race for the highest office in the land is close. And that’s not a surprise.”