NEW DELHI : Two days before a seven-phase election kicks off in Uttar Pradesh, bookies in the Satta Bazaar are predicting a hung assembly, with the BJP and the Samajwadi Party-Congress coalition seen to be finishing neck and neck.After the Reserve Bank of India’s money policy review, state elections will be the next big risk event for the domestic equity market Market watchers say the outcome of the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh could prove to be a big trigger for the market in the near term. The state goes to vote in seven phases beginning from February 11.Data from unofficial sources suggests the BJP and the SP-led coalition are in a close race with the Mayawati-led BSP a distant third.According to unconfirmed reports, odds on the BJP and the SP coalition winning 130 seats in the 403-member UP Assembly are pegged at 30 paise on every rupee bet. The higher the odds, the lower are the chances of a party winning that many seats.UP is India’s largest state with 138 million voters and has a strong clout in the Upper House of Parliament, where the ruling BJP alliance is in minority, which has been proving to be a handicap for the government in pushing many of its reformist policies.In the past two years, the BJP has not been faring too well in the state elections, with the party facing debacles in key power centres like Bihar and Delhi.“I am not aware what the bookies are suggesting, but my assessment is that the SP-Congress alliance is a little ahead of the BJP, and not neck to neck. There is a very high likelihood that the entire Muslim vote share will get transferred to the SP and the Congress where it is in the fray, because they still think Mayawati is the sub optimal choice for them,” Pankaj Sharma, independent market experts told ETMarkets.comA hung House with no single political party with an absolute majority might result in newer power equations and horse-trading.“If we look at the history, the SP should lead. Going by that logic, the SP-Congress alliance should emerge first, the BJP second and Mayawati third. There is a very high likelihood of a hung assembly. I would say a 75-80 per cent probability, which would not be good for the market and for the BJP,” Sharma said.Some analysts beg to differ. They expect one party or one block emerging with a singular majority.“When people come to power, they forget their differences. I feel only one party will emerge as a majority in UP. So, there is no possibility of a hung assembly,” AK Prabhakar, Head of Research at IDBI Capital, told ETMarkets.com.The first phase of UP election will start on February 11, but a new survey showed 40 per cent of its voters still do not know which political party they will vote for.The survey conducted by FourthLion Technologies, for IndiaSpend, conducted the survey by interviewing 2,513 registered voters in Uttar Pradesh in Hindi and said its sample is representative of the state’s urban and rural as well as socioeconomic, age, gender and caste makeup. The survey was conducted between January 24 and January 31.