One of the things I have tried to stress during the course of this campaign is that no candidate has anywhere close to a greater than 50% chance of winning either the Iowa caucuses or the Democratic primary overall. That remains true today.

What I've done is gathered Iowa caucuses' polls taken closest to this point in non-incumbent nomination processes since 1980. I then ran a simple model that controlled how high the best polling candidate was and figured out how often a candidate should win given where they were polling at this point. Keep in mind, these are rough odds.

What we see is that if history holds, someone in Warren's polling position should win about 30% of the time. That means, there's something like a 70% chance someone other than Warren wins the Iowa caucuses.

Someone in Biden's polling position should win about 25% of the time.

Someone at around 10%, like Buttigieg and Sanders, have about a 10% chance of winning.

Everyone else has less than a 10% chance of winning. Even Harris, who is at 6% in our poll, has something like a 7% chance of winning.

If you add up the top 5, their cumulative chance of winning is only between 80% and 85%. That means, there's still a 15% to 20% chance that someone not in the top 5 wins Iowa.

In other words, this race isn't over by any stretch.