WESTERVILLE, Ohio - Suburban Westerville, the place John Kasich calls home and where incomes dwarf those of typical Ohioans, might not traditionally be thought of as Democratic territory.

But in picking the Columbus suburb for the Oct. 15 presidential debate, Democrats chose a city that fits a narrative they hope will help carry them to victory next year - growing popularity in suburbia.

Voting trends show that Westerville is a solid example of rising Democratic popularity that stretches across the Columbus suburbs.

Evidence of the suburban trend surfaced in the 2016 election, despite Donald Trump’s win statewide, and grew in U.S. House and Senate races a year ago, cleveland.com found in looking at Central Ohio precinct data.

These charts illustrate examples of how Westerville moved from Republican to Democrat, showing the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, the 2012 and 2018 U.S. Senate races when Sherrod Brown was on the ballot each time, and the combined U.S. House votes in the last two elections. Only 6% of the city's voters are in Rep. Joyce Beatty's district, the rest in Rep. Troy Balderson's district.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

For example, there was nearly a 13-point swing in the presidential vote. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama, 53.4% to 45.1% in Westerville. But in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won there over Trump, 49.6% to 45.2%.

Upper Arlington also flipped from red to blue in the last presidential election, as did Hilliard. And although Dublin remained in the GOP corner, Trump squeaked out a 48.3% to 47.5% win there where Romney had easily dispatched Obama, 60.4% to 38.5%.

The 2018 wave

More recently, the trend blue in the Columbus suburbs accelerated in the congressional elections a year ago, despite the GOP’s strong showing statewide, including retention of the governor’s office.

In looking at the combined vote for federal races - the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and, in 2016, president - Democrats did better in 2018 than they did in 2016 in each of 14 cities bordering or nearby Columbus that are largely in Franklin County.

Westerville, on the north, is one of 14 suburban cities near or surrounded by Columbus that are largely in Franklin County. Not shown are the smaller villages.

In Westerville, Republicans had a 16-point advantage in 2016 in the combined vote as Sen. Rob Portman and Rep. Pat Tiberi scored GOP victories.

But the Republicans lost there by 13 points last year. Both Sen. Sherrod Brown and congressional challenger Danny O’Connor easily outpolled their GOP opponents in Westerville, though O’Connor lost districtwide. Plus, a small slice of Westerville is in Democrat Joyce Beatty’s district, which she won easily.

Dublin, Gahanna, New Albany and Upper Arlington were also among the Columbus suburbs that flipped from red to blue in the combined vote for the federal offices last year, and support grew stronger for the Democrats in already blue places such as Bexley, Reynoldsburg and Worthington.

This occurred in 2018 with Brown, one of the strongest Democrats in Ohio, on the ticket in comparison to when the Senate race was between Republican Portman and former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland in 2016. So it’s worth a look back for another comparison to 2012, when Brown was part of the Ohio ticket and Obama was a winner in Ohio.

The trend holds. The Democrats did better in the combined federal vote in each suburban city in 2018 than they did in 2012.

In Westerville, the GOP outpolled Democrats, 56% to 42%, in the races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and president in 2012. With the Senate and House up for grabs in 2018, Democrats won the Westerville vote, 56% to 43%.

Dublin went from a 26-point Republican win in 2012 to a 4-point Democratic win in 2018. Upper Arlington went from 12 points in favor of the Republicans in 2012 to 11 points in favor of the Democrats in 2018. And in Worthington, the winning margin for Democrats swelled from 7 points in 2012 to 37 points in 2018.

But, as Democrats were reminded with the 2018 statewide results, Westerville and suburbs like it do not mirror all of Ohio. It might take swelling Democratic advantages in the suburbs and urban cores even more to swing Ohio their way in 2020.

Main Street in downtown Westerville.

What is Westerville?

Why so? Here’s a glimpse of how the suburb just northeast of Columbus is different from the state as a whole, but not as extremely so as the richest and poorest areas:

Westerville is wealthier than Ohio overall, easily topping the state for both median household income ($86,466 to $52,407) and median home value ($214,300 to $135,100), according to the latest estimates from the Census Bureau.

Westerville residents are generally more highly educated, perhaps in part because it is home to Otterbein University, a private school of 2,900 students . Among city residents, 51% of those age 25 and older have at least a bachelor’s degree, in comparison to 27% for Ohio.

Though Westerville is less diverse (15% minorities) than the state as a whole (21%), it is much more diverse than the many rural counties in Ohio.

And while Ohio’s population has been relatively flat for years, the suburb covering parts of Franklin and Delaware counties is growing - from 36,120 in 2010 to an estimated 40,387 in 2018.

As for Kasich - the most famous Republican in the area as a former governor and presidential candidate - though he calls Westerville home, he technically lives in a township a couple thousand feet outside town. So his votes aren’t counted in these trends.

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. See cleveland.com/datacentral or other data-related news.

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