'Remember Alabama': Stakes high for GOP in Tuesday's primaries in West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina

WASHINGTON – One candidate is on supervised release from prison and has drawn eleventh-hour opposition from President Trump. Two came under fire over decades-old alcohol-related incidents. And others have faced what may be an unthinkable charge in a primary — that they previously aligned with the other party.

They are among the cast of candidates on ballots Tuesday as primary voters head to the polls in West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina, all states Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Much is at stake for Republicans hoping to expand their narrow, 51-seat Senate majority in November’s general elections. That's especially the case in West Virginia, where Trump and other Republicans are panicking over GOP Senate candidate and former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship, who was convicted of a misdemeanor related to a mine explosion that killed 29 men.

Republicans fear a candidate with Blankenship’s baggage could sink their chances against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, their likely opponent in the general election. The GOP is haunted by Alabama’s special election in December, when the nomination of GOP candidate Roy Moore cost them a Senate seat after allegations emerged that he sexually abused several teenagers.

"Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your State...No way! Remember Alabama," Trump tweeted, urging voters to cast their ballots for Blankenship's main opponents, Rep. Evan Jenkins or state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

Republicans see pickup opportunities in West Virginia and Indiana, where Manchin and Sen. Joe Donnelly, respectively, are among the most vulnerable Democratic senators. The Indiana GOP Senate primary has drawn national attention as Republicans’ nastiest primary, with candidates attacking each other personally.

In both states' GOP Senate primaries, the candidates are fighting over who is the most conservative and like Trump. Two of them — Rep. Luke Messer of Indiana and Jenkins of West Virginia — are among the 18 GOP lawmakers who nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize for pressuring North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates West Virginia and Indiana's Senate races “tossups” while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's race in Ohio is competitive but leaning in his favor. North Carolina has no Senate race this year.

Here's a closer look:

West Virginia

Jenkins, a former Democrat turned Republican, led the most recent Fox News poll in this state's GOP Senate primary, with Morrisey, the state’s attorney general, only 4 percentage points behind. But if the self-funded Blankenship were to pull off a come-from-behind victory, expect Republicans to collectively lose their minds.

Blankenship served a one-year sentence for conspiring to violate mine health and safety standards. His sentence ended in May 2017, and his period of supervised release ends Wednesday, the day after the primary, according to court records.

On Monday, Morrisey released a letter his lawyer wrote to Blankenship's probation officer, alleging Blankenship is in violation of federal law for not filing a personal financial disclosure form with the Senate Select Committee on Ethics.

Blankenship, responding to the president's tweet, said in a statement that the "establishment is misinforming" the president because they don't want Blankenship promoting the president's agenda in the Senate.

"As some have said, I am Trumpier than Trump ..." Blankenship said, arguing the president doesn't know him or his "flawed" main opponents.

Blankenship has blamed his conviction on Trump's Democratic predecessor, saying in one tweet he was "a victim of fake news and a corrupt Obama DOJ."

Attacking Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has also become a mainstay of Blankenship's campaign as establishment Republicans have worked against his candidacy. A super PAC with ties to McConnell has spent more than $1.3 million on TV and digital ads to oppose Blankenship.

Blankenship calls McConnell “swamp captain” and says in a new ad that the Kentucky Republican has gotten rich off his “China family,” a reference to the family of McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, the current secretary of Transportation. He has even said McConnell may have a conflict of interest because his wife’s father is a “wealthy China person.”

Blankenship told USA TODAY last month that he probably wouldn't support his opponents if either won, saying "I won't like them any better on May 10."

Indiana

The three GOP Senate candidates vying to replace the unopposed Donnelly all share an alma mater and similar conservative policy positions — and that may be part of the reason this primary is so nasty.

GOP Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita have been rivals since Wabash College and they, along with former state representative Mike Braun, have been eager to distinguish themselves and tear their opponents down.

Among the attacks:

Rokita, who is running against the “GOP elites" backing Messer, attacked Messer for not disclosing two DUI convictions from college and his mid-20s. (Rokita was arrested in college for illegal consumption of alcohol and possession of a fake ID, but those charges were dismissed.) And he called Braun a “Democrat in disguise” because he has voted in Democratic primaries in the past.

Braun says he’s the Trump-like outsider, and ran ads with cutouts of “swamp creatures” Rokita and Messer, asking voters to tell the difference.

Messer has accused Braun of lying and his campaign called Rokita “unhinged.”

However, they all love Trump — and Donnelly is using their unqualified support of Trump to raise money.

"All three of the guys ... seem to think the goal of a U.S. Senator is to do nothing except exactly what President Trump wants — and if Hoosiers think the president is wrong even once, too bad for them," Donnelly said in a fundraising request last month with the subject line, "copy machine."

Trump and Pence have a campaign event in Indiana Thursday, a sign of the attention they will give the Senate race. Indiana’s Senate race is the most expensive in the country, with candidates or outside groups spending more than $12.4 million on ads.

There is limited public polling on the primary, and Pence, the state’s former governor, hasn’t weighed in. But his brother Greg is a co-chair of Messer’s campaign.

Greg Pence, a businessman, is on the ballot himself, running for the House nomination in Messer’s district.

Ohio

Rep. Jim Renacci is considered the front-runner in the GOP primary for the Senate nomination, battling against Cleveland-area investment banker Michael Gibbons. Trump endorsed Renacci via Twitter, even though Gibbons co-chaired Trump’s fundraising efforts in Ohio. They are vying to replace Brown, a progressive populist who is running unopposed.

“I need Jim very badly to help our agenda and to keep MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump tweeted last month — while welcoming French President Emmanuel Macron to the White House.

Critics say Renacci may have used a “straw donor” scheme — using federal campaign funds and allied lawmakers to evade Ohio campaign finance limits — in an earlier run for governor, which he abandoned to run for Senate. His campaign dismissed questions about the flow of campaign funds as a “conspiracy theory.”

On the House side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included six Ohio districts as part of their “battlefield,” where they see a credible chance of flipping seats. Among them is the seat vacated by GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi, who resigned in January to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable.

His departure set off a frenzy, with 18 Republicans and Democrats jumping in the race. Most are running to complete Tiberi’s term and serve next Congress. The race is rated a “toss-up” by Cook Political Report with “uncertainty” in both primaries.

The state’s gubernatorial race is drawing attention, as well, with Republicans spending millions on ads, embracing Trump and arguing over who is more pro-gun and anti-abortion. Gun control has been a key feature on the Democratic side, which could benefit former U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a former presidential candidate.

North Carolina

Compared to the other states, North Carolina’s primaries are sleepier and there are no statewide races.

GOP Rep. Walter Jones hopes to retain his seat in the eastern part of the state for one final term. But the 12-term incumbent faces two primary opponents, Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey and Phil Law, a former Marine. No Democrats have filed to run.

Another primary between GOP Rep. Robert Pittenger and Mark Harris, pastor of First Baptist Church of Charlotte, marks a rematch from 2016, when Pittenger won by just 134 votes amid an FBI investigation into his real estate business. The probe closed last year with no charges.

All of the state’s 13 House incumbents are running for re-election, and while many have primary challengers, most seats are not currently expected to flip in November. However, two Republican-held seats — those of Pittenger and Ted Budd — are considered competitive.

Democrats are running in primaries in those districts but two of them — former Marine Dan McCready and attorney Kathy Manning — are included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue program, which gives “top-tier” candidates organizational and fundraising support.

Contributing: Maureen Groppe and Deirdre Shesgreen, USA TODAY