Despite the best efforts of Team Trudeau to pour cold water on any outburst of summer shuffle speculation, it’s starting to look more and more like the prime minister will have at least one slot to fill before the House returns.

After going on indefinite leave to deal with family health issues in early April, it seems less and less likely that Public Services Minister Judy Foote will be able to resume regular ministerial duties for the foreseeable future — which means that at least one of her colleagues from Newfoundland and Labrador likely will be tapped to fill her seat at the cabinet table.

July in the capital means it’s time for cabinet shuffle speculation

The three most-mentioned potential replacements:

Seamus O’Regan. A former TV broadcaster and one-time speechwriter to then-Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Brian Tobin, he’s a longtime personal friend of the prime minister; he and his husband were part of the holiday entourage that accompanied Trudeau on that ill-advised post-Christmas jaunt to the Aga Khan’s private Bahamian isle. In the days immediately following the 2015 election, O’Regan was widely seen as a likely addition to Trudeau’s inaugural cabinet, but his decision to temporarily withdraw from politics to undergo treatment for alcohol abuse in early December put any such ambitions on hold. A year and a half later, he’s seen by many to have largely made up for that initial wobble, and could well be at the top of Trudeau’s short list.

Yvonne Jones: On paper, Jones seems like the most obvious choice to fill Foote’s shoes. Of the three most likely candidates, she’s the only one who arrived on the Hill with more than a decade of political experience under her belt: six years in the Newfoundland Assembly, including a stint in then-Premier Roger Grimes’ cabinet as fisheries minister. Jones would go on to become the interim and, eventually, the permanent party leader in 2010.

Initially elected to the House in a 2013 byelection — in which she convincingly trounced former Conservative MP Peter Peneshue — she increased her margin substantially in the 2015 vote, which saw her re-elected with over 70 per cent support. She’s also of Inuit descent, which could boost her odds, particularly if the prime minister is angling to shore up his credibility with Indigenous communities.

Gudie Hutchings: Like O’Regan, she’s a first-time MP, but has already been bumped from the backbench to the parliamentary secretary circuit, where she currently serves as first mate to Small Business and Tourism Minister Bardish Chagger — a good match, considering her lengthy career in the tourism and wilderness outfitting trade. Like Jones, she’s a member of the all-party ‘outdoor caucus’. During her Commons tenure thus far, she’s been viewed as an outspoken advocate for rural issues — both local to her Long Mountain riding, and in general. Whether that would help or hinder her candidacy, however, is unknown.

Although O’Regan is currently favoured to snag the spot, there is one key factor that could lead Trudeau to choose one of the other candidates. Losing Foote would, after all, drop the current 15:15 gender balance by one, which would go up to two if he chose O’Regan, or any other male MP, to take her place — unless, of course, he promoted two more women, but that would almost certainly require a more extensive cabinet rearrangement.

In any case, O’Regan, Jones and Hutchings may have to wait by the phone for a few more weeks, as Trudeau isn’t expected to make any move to rejig his ministry until late August or early September.