Kori Schake: Trump is complicit in Erdoğan’s violence

There is no silver lining here. Trump’s decision to withdraw troops allowed a Turkish incursion into territory held by an American ally. For this, Trump received no foreign-policy concessions. The resulting invasion has set back the war against ISIS, and led the SDF—a force that was trained and armed by the United States—to ally with Russia and its Syrian client. In principle, Trump’s sudden shift in policy might have formed the basis for an effort to repair frayed relations with Ankara—which, among other things, had been kicked out of the F-35 program for buying a Russian air-defense system. But Trump undermined this possibility by slapping sanctions on Turkey. In effect, the United States is now sanctioning a NATO member-state in support of efforts by Russia and the Syrian government to consolidate control in a region formerly protected by the United States. Trump’s utterly bizarre October 9 letter to Erdoğan, in which he pleaded with the Turkish leader not to be “a tough guy” or a “fool,” surely did nothing to reestablish good feeling, let alone respect.

The story of how we got to this point doesn’t start with Trump. He inherited a situation in northeast Syria that could not remain in equilibrium forever, especially given his desire to bring U.S. troops home. Thus, one might argue that he ripped the Band-Aid off, forced an inevitable accommodation between the SDF and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and is now bringing the troops home.

But foreign policy is all about managing difficult trade-offs. For example, if policy makers take steps necessary to demonstrate the credibility of their commitment to defend an alliance partner, they might embolden that ally to draw them into a conflict that they’d rather not fight. If policy makers don’t take those steps, the ally might worry about abandonment and seek other security partners. As a great power, the United States has to constantly work to manage a wide variety of cross-cutting pressures. For decades, Washington has balanced arms sales to Saudi Arabia with Israel’s insistence that it retain its “qualitative military edge.”

Not only are trade-offs inevitable, but events rarely unfold as planned. Foreign policy takes place under conditions of uncertainty and risk. In short, foreign policy will inevitably produce lemons, so policy makers need to be prepared to make lemonade. What Trump has done, however, is jam the lemons into his mouth and choke on them. He’s managed to alienate some allies, get people killed, cause foreign leaders and policy makers to further doubt his reliability, give enemies of the United States a chance at regrouping, and further enhance Russian prestige as a power broker in the Middle East.

Trump’s botched Syria policy only highlights something that’s been apparent since the 2016 campaign: He is unfit to run American foreign policy. True, when it comes to unforced errors, Trump is unlikely to match the George W. Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq.