NJ weather: A foot of snow, multiple nor'easters incoming

UPDATE: The latest forecast for the storm outlines a 'worst case scenario'

The Shore has endured two true nor'easters and a coastal storm so far in March. We may add three more nor'easters to the tally this week.

Yes, March is supposed to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, but it appears to be fully trapped in big cat mode. For a quick recap, watch the video above.

The claws will come out again on Tuesday morning — the first day of spring — when the first of two back-to-back nor'easters begins to whip South Jersey with winds and a wintry mix just in time for rush hour. The impacts will make their way north up the coast, putting all of Monmouth and Ocean counties under grey skies by mid-afternoon.

NJ WEATHER: How much snow is forecast for your town?

However, it is overnight into Wednesday when the potential forms for a truly disruptive nor'easter to brush the Shore, bringing perhaps 16 inches of heavy, wet snow to some parts, according to the National Weather Service in Mount Holly.

Wednesday afternoon through the end-of-the-day commute looks to be when the heaviest snow will fall.

"The snow that does fall is going to have a lot of liquid in it, as in the past three storms," said Lance Franck, a meteorologist at the Mount Holly office, this morning. "That is certainly going to contribute to more downed trees and power lines, so we are expecting more power outages and that could be a significant number given the potential of snow."

Snow

How much to expect?

What's a reasonable worst-case scenario?

How likely is it that we get at least 6 inch?

What about freezing rain?

*All graphics provided by the NWS.

Wind

The wind will build behind the first storm, peaking Wednesday morning with gusts approaching 40 mph on the coastline.

Combined with the branch-bending wet snow, New Jersey could be in for another round of widespread power outages.

The animation below (made from NWS charts) shows winds speeds in knots – 1 kts equals 1.15 mph, so 20 kts equals 23 mph, 40 kts equals 46 mph and so on.

Coastal flooding

Tuesday night's high tide could be the first in a wave of successive minor to moderate flooding events along the low-lying areas of the Shore.

Ocean County locations are at greater risk, according to the Stevens Flood Advisory System at the Davidson Laboratory.

Tuckerton

Barnegat Light

Manasquan

Sea Bright

Keansburg

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The week ahead

Much could change regarding the expectations for Wednesday's event over the next 24 hours.

"The uncertainty arrives from the track of those systems, particularly the second one, and also the intensity," Franck said. "That will dictate rain versus snow, the amount of snow and the magnitude of the effects around the Shore."

By midnight on Thursday, the precipitation should begin to subside and give New Jersey a breather — for a couple of days.

"This weekend there is the potential for another storm — another nor'easter — Saturday into Sunday," Franck said.

The weather service shies away from speculating on the features and effects of a storm this far in advance, but a definite pattern has emerged this March.

"The trend with this pattern and this winter, in general, has been for these storm systems to stay closer to the coast and to be stronger," Franck said.

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Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com, @russzimmer