NEW DELHI: As Jammu & Kashmir plunged into political uncertainty with the BJP-PDP alliance , breaking down there is apprehension that Pakistan could use the situation for its own designs.

The Modi government is likely to maintain its no-talks, tough stand against Pakistan, while unleashing a more muscular policy against terrorism inside Jammu & Kashmir. Given that summer months are generally high-infiltration periods, the government expects a spike in attempts across the LoC, with the 2003 ceasefire coming under strain, weeks after Indian and Pakistani DGMOs promised to uphold it.

SK Lambah, a former PM's special envoy, said he didn't foresee any significant impact on India-Pakistan relations as Pakistan elections are scheduled for the third week of July and politicians are busy.

Former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan TCA Raghavan agreed. "Pakistan is in election mode, so I don't see any immediate impact. However, there will be a spike in rhetoric. Unfortunately, this coincides with the damaging UN report, which will be diplomatic fodder for Pakistan," he said.

However, the global situation has changed with the Kashmir 'issue' having traction in fewer countries. If the Modi government pitches its approach as going after terrorists, it would meet little opposition.

Sources here said the BJP-PDP alliance, when it was announced, was a setback for Pakistan, which expected political conflict after the 2014 elections. Tuesday's events would be a shot in the arm for some forces in Pakistan. For them, the three events - BJP-PDP meltdown, Shujaat Bukhari's killing and the UN report - are a bonanza.

Sushant Sareen, a Pakistan analyst at Observer Research Foundation, said, "The alliance had become untenable but the future political path is going to be turbulent. Holding fresh elections is easier said than done, especially since the government was unable to hold byelections to the seat vacated by Mehbooba Mufti ."

