USA TODAY





Here’s how today’s historic Senate votes is expected to go down:

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. Eastern. An hour later they will vote on “cloture” — a motion to stop a Democratic filibuster of Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch.

That vote will almost certainly fail, because it requires 60 votes to pass and there are only 52 Republicans in the Senate.

At that point (probably around 11:30), Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will ask the parliamentarian to change the rules to require only 51 votes to end debate. When the parliamentarian says no, ending debate requires 60 votes, McConnell will ask for a vote to overrule that decision. He will win, because reversing the parliamentarian’s ruling only requires 51 votes.

That is the essence of the “nuclear option” — using a simple majority to change the rules to allow a simple majority to advance the Gorsuch nomination to a final vote. Democrats can offer some motions to try to block all this, but they will lose.

In the last vote of the series, the Senate will vote again to stop the Democratic filibuster, this time needing only 51 votes to prevail. Republicans will win, which limits all further debate to 30 hours. That would allow a final vote on confirmation of Gorsuch for Friday evening. That final vote has always had a 51-vote threshold.

As a result, Republicans will be able to move Gorsuch on to the court without a single Democratic vote.

Read more:

Here are 9 steps the Senate may take to 'go nuclear' and approve Gorsuch

Senate poised to 'go nuclear' for Gorsuch confirmation

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'Nuclear option' could blow up Senate far beyond the Gorsuch vote