THE MSD PUZZLE DECODED

Dhoni's recent struggles in chases highlight a grave conundrum

by Deepu Narayanan • Last updated on

Dhoni has amassed 1399 runs from the 50 ODIs (40 innings) he played post the last World Cup in Australia. © Getty

The six-match bilateral ODI series between South Africa and India starting on February 1 would seem a like an unappetising dessert after a sumptuous main course. The three-Test series between the two sides in January was one for the ages which saw many a brilliant contests. But with the next World Cup less than 15 months away, the ODI series offers both sides to test their prowess against a heavyweight opposition and iron out chinks in their armor.

Some of the finest batting talents will be on display during the ODI series including the likes of Virat Kohli, AB de Villiers, Rohit Sharma, Hashim Amla and Quinton de Kock among others. However, one man on whom the spotlight doesn't elude is MS Dhoni. The gritty knocks in the last year against Sri Lanka and Australia would have bought him time but not peace of mind. There has been vociferous clamor regarding his waning finishing skills in limited-overs cricket but the team management, especially skipper Virat Kohli and coach Ravi Shastri, have thrown their weight behind Dhoni.

Is there an issue with Dhoni's batting?

Dhoni has amassed 1399 runs from the 50 ODIs (40 innings) he played post the last World Cup in Australia. His runs have come at an average of 46.63 and a very healthy strike-rate of 84.37. Digging down further, there's a stark dip in his returns in run-chases of late. He has batted 20 times each in first and second innings post last World Cup, but there's a marked difference in the numbers.

Battings 1st vs Batting 2nd since April 2015

Inngs Runs Avg SR 100s 50s HS Batting 1st 20 868 57.86 95.27 1 6 134 Batting 2nd 20 531 35.40 71.08 0 3 80

From the tables, we can clearly see his returns have dwindled considerably in the last three-odd years while chasing. Quite a fall, considering he was one of the best batsmen in ODI run-chases in the four-year period between 2011 and 2015. He averaged 61.12 from 30 innings batting second and among the 62 batsmen with at least 20 innings in run-chases had an Impact Score (Average X Strike Rate/100) of 50.39. Only two other players had a better Impact Score than Dhoni in run-chases this period - the ususal suspects AB de Villiers with 88.18 (Avg 84.93 & SR 103.83) and Virat Kohli with 67.59 (Avg 68.95 & 98.03).

Batsmen with highest Impact scores in ODI run chases b/w 2011 & 2015 WC (Min 20 inngs)

Player Inns Runs HS Avg SR 100s 50s Impact Score AB de Villiers 25 1274 136* 84.93 103.83 2 10 88.18 Virat Kohi 56 2896 183 68.95 98.03 11 12 67.59 MS Dhoni 30 1039 85* 61.11 82.46 0 8 50.39 Shane Watson 23 896 185* 44.80 106.03 1 5 47.50 Sean Williams 21 748 96 46.75 100.53 0 8 47.00

Post the last World Cup, Dhoni's impact score has come down to 25.16. Among the 45 batsmen with at least 15 innings batting second, his Impact Score is ranked 37th - only Azhar Ali (23.18), Mathew Wade (18.34) and Kusal Mendis (16.53) are below him from the top eight countries. Dhoni strikes at 71 per 100 balls in run-chases since April 2015 and only Ireland's Gary Wilson possesses a lower strike rate (62.09).

Batsmen with lowest Impact scores in ODI run chases since Apr 2015 (Min 15 inngs)

Player Inngs Runs HS Avg SR 50+ scores Impact Score Gary Wilson 17 285 53 17.81 62.09 2 11.06 Kusal Mendis 18 345 89 21.56 76.66 2 16.53 Matthew Wade 15 312 76 22.28 82.32 1 18.34 Chamu Chibhabha 17 452 82 28.25 74.09 3 20.93 Azhar Ali 21 615 102 29.28 79.15 4 23.18 William Porterfield 21 616 119 29.33 81.05 4 23.77 Sikandar Raza 22 523 67* 30.76 77.48 3 23.83 Jason Holder 21 402 68 26.80 91.36 1 24.48 MS Dhoni 20 531 80 35.40 71.08 3 25.16 Glenn Maxwell 15 307 96 23.61 110.43 1 26.07

How Dhoni fares in steep chases?

There are few batsmen who understand the pulse of chasing in ODI cricket as much as Dhoni does. He was a part of 131 run-chases of which he stayed till the end 45 times which is nearly a third. India lost only one ODI of these 45 times. The pattern of his batting has been to take the game as deep as possible. The longer he bats into an innings, the more likely he was to pull off chases. However, of late he seems to have abandoned this often-successful method of his and looked to go for shots relatively earlier in the innings, especially in steep run-chases.

His numbers in 300-plus run chases post the last World Cup offers a dismal reading: 145 runs in nine innings at an average of 16.11 and a strike-rate of 81 with a highest score of 34. In all these nine innings, the required run-rate at the point of his dismissal has been higher than the required run-rate at the point of his entry. In five of these matches, he started off his innings before the 30th over and perished trying a big shot in each of these times, none more evident than the attempted pull shot in the air off Hasan Ali in the finals of Champions Trophywhen India were struggling at 54 for 4.

On the other hand, he has done quite well in run-chases where the asking rate was well within control. In the 11 sub-300 chases he has managed an average of 64.33 with three fifties. Delving deeper, the run rate required at his entry point was above five runs per over only in four of these chases (target < 300) and India ended up losing three of those. The solitary win came against New Zealand in Mohali in 2016when he scored a 91-ball 80.

Looking from the required run-rate point of view, India have lost ten of the 13 chases where the required rate was above five when Dhoni started his innings. In nine out of the 13 above, he entered the chase before the 30th over giving him enough time to go for his tried and tested method but got dismissed before the last ten overs commenced in all but one instance.

Target Inngs NO Runs Balls Avg SR 50s Win-Loss > 300 9 0 145 179 16.11 81.0055865922 0 2-7 < 300 11 5 386 568 64.33 67.9577464789 3 7-4

Asking rate Inngs NO Runs Balls Avg SR 50s Win-Loss RR > 5 13 0 322 427 24.77 75.41 1 3-10 RR < 5 7 5 209 320 104.50 65.31 2 6-1

** Asking rate at the point of Dhoni's entry to the innings

The Indian team think-tank certainly believes Dhoni has left in him what it takes and is an important cog in the wheel in the scheme of things for the next World Cup in England. Probably, the one way of solving the issue is by giving Dhoni a longer run at the number four position, where he can bat around the two pillars of Indian batting - Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma - which would help to take a bit of pressure off him at the start of his innings so that he can take that extra bit of time to play himself in.

Dhoni said after his knock of 80 against New Zealand in Mohali in 2016: "If I'm successful at No.4, it gives the team a bit of a liberty because I'll try to score at a decent pace. Even today I felt I slowed down a bit but I feel it's important for me to keep playing the big shots. Also, it gives me a chance to bat with Virat. We run between the wickets very well, we can take on the opposition fielders even the best ones. If you get a good partnership in the middle, that is 100-125, it becomes slightly easier for the batsman coming after that.

"We were having a conversation in the team management about the things we want to do. One of the things was for me to play free cricket. The first thing that helps [when batting at No.4] is you are only two down. It was important for me to start with a positive intent. I could have got out, but that is the risk you can afford to take if you are batting at No. 4."

He went on to bat in the remaining two ODIs of the series also at number four, but the move was shelved once Kohli took over the reins. Since then, Manish Pandey, KL Rahul and Dinesh Karthik are playing musical chairs at the pivotal number position with Hardik Pandya and Kedar Jadhav also getting a look in.

With the totals of 300-plus scored in ODIs in England these days more often than not, it is imperative Dhoni needs to devise a better approach to combat the pressure of chasing and it won't be a bad move to try him out at number four. In the series against South Africa, he will up against a top-class bowling attack and will give us a good indicator whether he still has game to stand up against the best. If not, India would finish the series with more questions than answers regarding the Dhoni conundrum.

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