UAH satellite data series shows the greatest warming

Precisely these UAH data, incidentally, show by far the most warming. The 4 other main global temperature series also show warming over the last 5 years, but one that is markedly lower (between 0.03 and 0.05 °C).

Contribution by factors of cooling and warming.

Strengers indicated at the time that 'in light of the scientific uncertainties, I may lose, but this is not likely to happen'. He gave four reasons why a possible reduction in warming, or even a cooling could occur. Bold indicates that the related reason more or less became a reality over the past 5 years.

a continued (relatively) low solar activity ;

; a relatively high heat absorption by the (deep) oceans ;

; a period of cooling due to incidental variations in the climate;

lower climate sensitivity than expected.

In addition, Strengers gave three reasons why he nevertheless expected to win:

a further increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere ;

; the ‘best-estimate’ by the IPCC is that of a warming of around 0.2 °C per decade;

the chances of overestimating climate sensitivity are smaller than those of underestimation.

The sum of all factors, thus, has led to warming.

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