First, the Indian Army struck back, in a rare cross-border offensive, to avenge the terrorist attack on its convoy by a rebel group based out of Myanmar and send out a message of zero tolerance.

Second, the Union cabinet signed off on a road connectivity pact with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal, a collateral spin-off from the historic land border deal struck with Bangladesh by Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the previous weekend.

Taken together with the unprecedented move to invite all the members of the eight-member South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc)—which includes Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal—to the oath-taking of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government last year, there seems to be a clear game plan for the neighbourhood, something on which this government is willing to walk the talk.

The question to ask then: is there a Modi Doctrine being evolved? Actually, it is a thought that came from my cousin. An American, yet a keen follower of the goings on in India, he queried whether India was evolving something like the Monroe doctrine.

The Monroe doctrine was a reaction to the colonizing efforts by European countries and evolved in 1823, wherein the US stated that any move to conquer land or interfere, either in North or South America, would be considered an act of aggression and would elicit an intervention.

The parallel is quite interesting. When the US made this strategic intent, it did not have a navy that could actually pose a credible threat. But its unequivocal statement of intent infused a sense of doubt in the minds of Europeans; it was sufficient to be a deterrent.

It is somewhat similar to the situation that India finds itself in today. Years of neglect—largely a fallout of the Bofors gun scandal in the late 1980s—has hamstrung defence equipment purchases in the country and retarded India’s defence preparedness. The last big strategic move was the carrying out of the nuclear tests in 1998—which was semi-neutralized with Pakistan acquiring the same capability. Successive governments have made noises about a blue-water navy, but done precious little to achieve the desired milestones.

As a result—many more knowledgeable people have said as much—it has left India strategically vulnerable. Its various flip-flops, especially with respect to cross-border terrorism, only reaffirmed the lack of certitude in mind and policy.

I am not for a moment arguing that India under Modi is aspiring for a macho status at the global high table. Instead, what one is arguing is that India is signalling to its neighbours and the world that it comes in peace, but harbours the resolve and willingness to engage in tough love.

The basic argument is that India is sending out a signal that it is willing to recognize the spheres of influence of other countries and, in return, expects similar treatment: one can’t be good and the other bad, because, after all, both are working for sovereign good.

So the land border deal with Bangladesh served two purposes. One, though India is economically and militarily superior to Bangladesh, it was willing to treat the relatively young country as an equal—and it made a world of difference to the proud and self-respecting people of Bangladesh. Second, it was sending out a message to the world that peaceful negotiation is a credible alternative to military means to resolving border disputes. And that an enduring solution requires a strong economic and people-to-people bond. This is exactly where the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) road network to be inked today (15 June) in Thimpu, Bhutan, fits into the Modi doctrine. (To be sure, a lot of these ideas have been around for a while, but the difference is that the NDA is walking the talk.) This was originally conceived as part of a Saarc initiative, but got stuck due to resistance from Pakistan—now, the country faces the risk of missing out on the benefits of economic integration. On paper, BBIN countries will use this network to permit mutual cross-border movement of passengers and goods.

For India, the BBIN fits into a larger strategic play to integrate the north-east of India, which, to date, has remained an economic pariah. This strategy looks to connect the north-eastern states to the highways to the East through Myanmar to other Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries as well as southern China. The economic opportunity that is likely to emerge should help realize the aspirations of the young demography of the people from the region.

In the final analysis, it is clear that India is rewriting its strategic policy. This could, albeit prematurely, be dubbed the Modi Doctrine.

Anil Padmanabhan is deputy managing editor of Mint and writes every week on the intersection of politics and economics. Comments are welcome at capitalcalculus@livemint.com. His Twitter handle is @capitalcalculus

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