Good morning and welcome to my weekly weather report on the immediate past, present and future of weather in the Bayou City.

PAST

You know it’s really the nitty gritty of summer in Houston when temperatures hit 95-degrees, the point at which it feels extremely hot outside, even in the shade.

But so far this year Houston’s has yet to hit that torrid temperature. We should have by now, and as we’ll see in the forecast below, Houston is unlikely to reach 95 degrees this week, meaning we could slip into July before getting that warm.

Houston has had a 95-degree day as early as March 30th, back in 1946. And the latest date is July 30, back in 1910. The average first date is June 9, so we’re about two weeks late this year. And this is the deepest Houston has gone into summer without hitting 95 degrees since 2001, when the first date didn’t come July 10th.

Thus, while it’s abnormal that we haven’t hit the 95-degree mark, it’s not ridiculously so.

Another interesting chart to plot is the number of 95-degree days Houston receives annually, and in the graphic below you can see the ridiculous year of 2011, the only time Houston has ever recorded more than 100 95-degree days in a calendar year.

By this time, in 2011, Houston had already recorded 25 days with temperatures of 95 degrees and above.

Anyway, let’s do the numbers for last week.

Date High Temp. Low Temp. Average Departure Rainfall Monday 92 77 85 +2 Trace Tuesday 93 80 87 +4 0.00 Wednesday 89 78 84 +1 0.22 Thursday 92 75 84 +1 0.00 Friday 92 74 83 0 0.00 Saturday 92 71 82 -1 Trace Sunday 90 76 83 0 0.07 Average 91.4 75.6 84.0 +1.0 0.29 (tot.)

PRESENT

After a mostly dry last 10 days, interspersed with scattered showers, Houston will enter a wetter pattern this week.

There are some modest rain chances today, but with increasing moisture levels rain possibilities will improve later in the week and peak on Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the area should see between 1 and 2 inches of rain, say forecasters with the National Weather Service. Isolated areas could see 3 to 5 inches.

Because the atmosphere will be really moist, and it’s warmer out, there will be the potential for tropical rainfall which means some areas could see very intense rainfall rates. This would lead to localized flooding. Again this appears most likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast models are split as to whether the high pressure will reestablish itself next weekend, or whether showers will persist into the weekend.

One nice byproduct of the rain, which is welcome enough in late June, is that temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees.

FUTURE

So when might Houston get its first 95-degree day?

The GFS model doesn’t show it getting that warm until early July.

I’d be just fine with that.

SUMMARY

My rating scale for this week’s weather goes from 0 to 15, the number of seconds left in the World Cup match between the United States and Portugal when the latter scored a goal to end the game in a tie.

My number: 10.1.

Finally, if you want several daily updates on weather, please “like” my SciGuy Facebook page. It’s the best place for multiple daily updates on our weather, delivered right to your news feed.

FINE PRINT

As always, thank you to the fine professionals at the National Weather Service for the information and data that make this weekly blog entry possible. Also, bear in mind there’s always uncertainty in weather forecasting, particularly the timing and intensity of precipitation.