'Scheer is now stuck: If he remains relatively mute on the subject of immigration, he looks like a Liberal stooge. If he pipes up, he risks being labelled a fellow mouth-breather. It’s the worst of both worlds.'

Justin Trudeau is a very, very good boogeyman for the modern conservative political movement. Frightfully optimistic, conspicuously worldly, our prime minister has scarcely ever met a cause he can’t get behind — if only for a smile, a selfie and a reminder to all that diversity is our strength. He often speaks in cloying, meaning-free soundbites in a voice that brings to mind Hallmark cards and melted Gruyère. He might have been built in a lab somewhere near Davos.

In theory, Trudeau should be in deep trouble right now. Since his election in 2015, we’ve seen an equally conspicuous revolt against Trudeaupian politics as practised by like-minded world leaders. Trump was perhaps the closest and most conspicuous rebuke. The victory of right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil is the most recent.

Across the pond, France’s President Emmanuel Macron is chest-deep in populist enmity as a result of his carbon taxes. Liberal immigration policies and the aroma of elitism have been the death of governments in Italy, Austria, Hungary and Poland. Britain remains in the clutch of Brexit. Germany’s Angela Merkel, the dame of European soft-handed liberalism, is on her way out.

Yet after three years in power, Trudeau remains within spitting distance of re-election. A raft of post-summer polling, summarized here by my colleague Marieke Walsh, shows the Conservative Party consistently trailing the Liberal Beelzebub by a healthy margin. This, after a near-unprecedented rise in conservative-minded populism beyond Canada’s borders.

And though the usual caveats apply — polls go up and down, a year is a long time, etc. — it remains that a proper populist movement relies on momentous anger, the kind you can express on a bumper sticker.

There are a number of reasons why Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer hasn’t yet been able to foment this kind of anger. First, the economy is doing fairly well — though, as America’s Democratic Party well knows, this is hardly a guarantee of electoral success. As well, our first-past-the-post system of voting doesn’t allow for the expression of populist rage, as it does in the mostly proportional systems in Europe and elsewhere.

Mostly, though, it comes down to one unfortunate reality: Andrew Scheer sucks at populism.

Consider immigration, that reddest of populist meats. By scapegoating and scare-quoting immigration, populist movements have exploited the issue to electoral glory the world over. Scheer and the Conservatives tried much the same. Last July, the party released an advertisement depicting a black man walking toward a broken fence by way of a road paved with Trudeau’s infamous “diversity is our strength” tweet.

Simple, pithy and larded with racial undertones, the ad was a conservative populist tour de force — a perfect rebuke, in other words, of Trudeau’s immigration policy. Yet the Conservative Party quickly pulled it following complaints pointing out as much. Part of being populist is taking responsibility for, even pride in, what you say. Instead, the Conservative Party bowed to the will of political correctness — by far the biggest sin in the populist bible.

Since then, Scheer has been far more muted on the subject of immigration, even though migrants continue their trek over the U.S.-Canada border. In doing so, Scheer has effectively ceded the issue to Maxime Bernier and his nascent People’s Party of Canada, which has proven to be far more an effective dog-whistler than this country’s official Opposition.

Scheer is now stuck: If he remains relatively mute on the subject, he looks like a Liberal stooge. If he pipes up, he risks being labelled a fellow mouth-breather. It’s the worst of both worlds.

It’s not all his fault. Politics and appearances forced Scheer to side with Trudeau during the NAFTA negotiations. Trade protectionism is another go-to issue for left- and right-leaning populists alike. By effectively supporting the Liberal government in the face of Trump, Scheer looked as though he were cut from the same globalist cloth as young Trudeau.

Scheer was equally hidebound in having to support Trudeau on minority francophone rights in Ontario, a Liberal Party issue if there ever was one. He was further forced to oppose marijuana legalization, even though the issue resonates with younger voters of all stripes.

Trudeau is vulnerable, no doubt. Scheer has a meaningful shot at capitalizing in Quebec ridings off the island of Montreal. The government’s failure to secure a pipeline from Alberta is currently haunting many Liberal dreams in Ottawa and beyond. Assuming Ontario Premier Doug Ford doesn’t go full gong show within the next year — a huge assumption, granted — his Progressive Conservative machinery will be of great help to Scheer, come October’s election.

Yet even though Scheer has the ripest of liberal targets in Trudeau, he has nonetheless failed to capitalize on the wave of populism currently lifting conservative movements outside Canada. And he doesn’t even have anyone else to blame.

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