KOLKATA: A phased withdrawal of lockdown , instead of a sudden and complete one, will help to ensure that Covid 19 transmission is not renewed through a second wave thus negating the benefits of the 21-day shutdown, believe experts. Unrestricted access to public places, if granted overnight, will inevitably lead to overcrowding and could prolong the pandemic, they warn while advising a partial revival of emergency services followed by a staggered reopening of the rest over the next 3-4 weeks.According to IPGMER professor of oncology Diptendra Sarkar, the pandemic is still raging and a sudden withdrawal of curbs could be disastrous. “While theatres, malls and public transport should remain shut, emergency services could be revived in a restricted manner from April 15, if the situation permits. There is a two-fold danger in throwing everything open at one go. First, transmission will get renewed at a far greater pace since the pandemic is on and we are yet to develop herd immunity and so the entire population is vulnerable. Second, the lockdown-induced restrictions would make people hungry to go out throwing caution to the winds, which will fuel transmission,” Sarkar said. Immunologists agree that only emergency services should be allowed, perhaps with extended hours from April 15, because a second wave of transmission is inevitable if all sectors are allowed to function normally.“We are at a very critical stage now and are about to reap the benefits of lockdown. It will definitely bring the numbers down but throwing everything open in two weeks would be self-defeating. We have seen from some instances that gatherings can lead to rapid transmission. If it has to be checked, lockdown withdrawal must be phased and slow,” said virologist Amitabha Nandy. There are high chances of a second wave of the virus spreading like wildfire if lockdown is revoked entirely, he argued. “If we check the statistics of H1N1 which spread in 2009, we will find that this was exactly what had happened. As soon as it was contained and people went back to their normal lives, there was a second wave,” he added.Nandy said the 21 days of quarantine would be absolutely futile unless people are educated about what exactly is to be done on Day 22. “Or else, there is a possibility of another lockdown being declared. We definitely don’t want that. We need to act wisely and use our common sense by doing the most basic things. So, don’t go partying on Day 22 and try to follow all the instructions as you did for the last four weeks and please don’t forget that this is not the end of the virus. This is only the beginning of the end,” he said.According to virologist Amitabha Nandy, only a vaccine or herd immunity can fight the virus effectively. “Since 60% of the population has not been affected, herd immunity is absent. A vaccine is yet to be developed. So, we will remain just as susceptible to the virus on April 15 as we are now. The existing restrictions need to be in force even as we gradually revive a few emergency sectors,” he said.While essential services like bank and grocery stores should be allowed extended hours, the frequency of public transport should be minimal, said the virologist. “After a week, the frequency can be increased after monitoring the effects of the spread and the public shall be urged to avoid assembling in large numbers and practice social distancing. Public places like theatres, malls, parks shall be the last on the priority list,” he said.