(Allen Eyestone/ The Palm Beach Post)

The Miami Heat, bounced from the NBA playoffs in a 4–1 series loss to the Philadephia 76ers, have several roster questions to address this offseason. One of the more interesting, and perhaps the most forgotten, is how to approach Justise Winslow’s eligibility for a rookie-scale extension. Barring major moves, the Heat could be stuck in salary cap hell for the foreseeable future. To make matters worse, they lack the high-end talent necessary to justify such a predicament. Nevertheless, offering Winslow an extension on par with the one offered to Josh Richardson last summer (4 years, $42 million) would be a logical move for a young, athletic wing with upside. Let’s take a look at areas of his game Winslow needs to improve upon and areas that should give Heat fans some optimism.

Following a rough 2016–2017 season cut short by injury, Winslow desperately needed to improve a dreadful outside shot: and boy did he. After shooting 27.6 percent and 20 percent from 3 in respective seasons, Winslow shot 37.6 percent (for reference, league average was 36.2 percent this season). It should be noted that the season sample is still a relatively small one (149 attempts, 1.9 per game). It’s also worth mentioning that his free throw percentage, often a good indicator of sustainable shooting ability, was only at 63.5 percent. But even then, there was a visible improvement in his shot mechanics and it’s fairly remarkable to see such a large jump in 3-point percentage.

While Winslow statistically had his best season finishing around the rim (54.7 percent on shots less than 5 feet from the rim, per NBA.com), he still has a lot of work to do there. He currently thrives best as an attacking point forward, grabbing a rebound on one end and pushing the ball up the court in transition. Considering his 6"7 and 225 pound build, his ball-handling and burst are quite impressive. Still, there were too many instances like these all season:

Winslow has jokingly implied that his small hands could be the reason for his finishing woes. Hell, it could even be something unquantifiable like a mental block. Although he probably lacks confidence in his finishing, I think the issue is a bit more nuanced. There’s seems to be an indecisiveness in a lot of his drives, likely stemming from an inability to consistently draw contact yet. Take for example this drive against the Spurs last December:

Winslow receives the ball from Goran and darts into the paint. His handle is a touch out of control, and upon meeting Gasol he throws the ball to his right in a panic.

The Spurs admittedly defend this play well (they stick to shooters, Gasol drops back, and Gay is ready to help on the Winslow drive). But too many of Winslow’s drives involve him barreling into the paint, only to immediately toss the ball back out at any sign of resistance. Some of those passes end up being harmless. But others?…not so much. You’d like to see him get better at drawing contact or maybe slowing it down to probe the defense.

Even in an NBA surging with small-ball, Winslow is likely too much of a tweener to be a full-time 4. He’s not exactly well equipped to play the 3 yet either, due to the inability to consistently create his own shot. This brings us to the increasingly popular idea of playing Winslow as a full-time point guard. As the season progressed, Erik Spoelstra began increasing Winslow’s ball-handling responsibilities. We often saw him as either a secondary ball-handler or the de facto back-up point guard. But what about him as the starting point guard (assuming Goran Dragić was to be moved in a summer deal)? There are some really encouraging signs of Winslow’s play-making as a ball-handler. These are by no means easy passes to make:

What’s more, he has demonstrated both an ability to set up the Heat’s half-court offense and to successfully execute high pick and rolls. Winslow scored .91 points per possession as a pick and roll ball-handler (around the 75th percentile), per NBA.com via Synergy. But what’s particularly exciting is instances of his playmaking in the PnR:

Winslow gets a set of ball screens from James Johnson and Hassan Whiteside, freeing him of Devin Booker. What’s notable is here is how he uses his strong frame to keep Booker on his back. Marquese Chriss is left deciding if he should help Len on a potential lob or step out to guard James Johnson. He sort of does neither, and Winslow maintains his dribble just long enough for an open lob to Whiteside.

Here, Winslow curls around two screens and lunges just slightly at John Henson. Henson reaches in to swat the ball, and Winslow lobs it over him to Whiteside. And perhaps my favorite play is one that encapsulates both his ball-handling and passing skills. He calls Bam Adebayo up for the high screen, uses a cross-over dribble to shake Sterling Brown, and squeezes in a beautiful pocket pass to Bam (right past the incredibly long Thon Maker).

Although he’s probably not experienced enough to become the full-time point guard, the Heat should absolutely green-light this experiment given their current outlook.

Defensively, there’s not much to be worried about when it comes to Winslow. He held opponents he guarded to a field goal percentage of 2.3% less than their normal percentage, per NBA.com. His advanced stats all seem to paint a favorable picture. He had a defensive rating¹ of 102.1, tied for highest on the team with those playing 1300 minutes or more. His defensive real plus-minus² was 10th for all small forwards. And what makes the Winslow at point-guard idea even more intriguing is how much of a nuisance he can be playing the 1 on defense:

Play nice Justise!

Winslow is still maybe the most fascinating young Heat prospect. He likely isn’t going to be the star fans envisioned, when the Heat selected him 10th overall in 2015. Even then, he should become an incredibly useful starter/high-level role player. He can nearly defend all 5 positions, maintain playmaking and ball-handling responsibilities, and knock down open 3s. If this years playoffs taught us anything, it’s perhaps that even flawed players like Marcus Smart and P.J. Tucker can shift the outlook of an entire series. Here’s hoping Winslow reaches a gear at least a little higher than them.

¹NBA.com defines their version of individual defensive rating (DEFRTG) as “the number of points per 100 possessions that the team allows while that individual player is on the court.”

²ESPN.com defines defensive real plus-minus (DRPM)as “a player’s estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions.”