#ExxonKnew

What's Going On?

Atmospheric CO2 measurements at the Mauna Loa observatory (where CO2 concentration has been measured since the 1950s) topped 415 ppm last week, and levels continue to rise steadily. The last time Earth's atmosphere had this much carbon, mastodons, sabre-toothed cats, and giant ground sloths roamed across an iceless Antarctic where beech trees grew. That was 3-5 million years ago, during the Pliocene, and humans did not yet exist.

Keeling Curve | Source: Scripps Institute of Oceanography

Well That's News...

Not to Exxon. They called this one 40 years ago. Recent investigations by InsideClimate and The Union of Concerned Scientists unearthed internal company documents from 1982, revealing that Exxon's research team was performing groundbreaking climate research and very clearly understood the consequences of carbon emissions from fossil fuels on the planet. The accuracy of their predictions are chilling — they anticipated (in their "21st Century Study-High Growth Scenario") that in 2020 atmospheric CO2 levels would fall between 400 and 420 ppm. They also foresaw the accompanying sea level rise, melting of polar ice sheets, change of rainfall patterns, and agricultural failures.

Source: InsideClimateNews

Wow — Give Me The Brief History.

Exxon had a rigorous program of CO2 sampling and climate modeling going on in the 70s. In 1978 senior scientist James Black gave a company talk where he described the "general scientific agreement" that human-produced CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were influencing the climate.

He said, "present thinking holds that man has a time window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical." Reminder — that was 1978.

Exxon doubled down on their research, and in the early 80s published several papers on climate change in scientific journals, gaining a reputation of "genuine expertise" on the subject. But they stayed cagey on the role of oil on global warming with their shareholders (they're now facing several lawsuits as a result).

The turning point came in 1988, when NASA climate scientist James Hansen testified before Congress, stating that global warming was well underway and steps must be taken to stop it. Sensing an existential threat to their industry, Exxon began a systematic campaign to sow doubt and confusion about the science behind climate change, spinning a narrative that emphasized its uncertain points. They formed a multinational corporate alliance called the Global Climate Coalition to impede government efforts to cut fossil fuels, and helped prevent the US from signing the international 1997 Kyoto Protocol that would have set limits on emissions. Exxon continues its lobbying, funding of right-wing think tanks, and rhetoric of misinformation today.

Sounds Like We Have Ourselves A Proper Villain.

No kidding. Unfortunately, Exxon's campaign has largely succeeded. The seeds of doubt they planted from 1988 onward have delayed critical action for decades — half of all the carbon in the atmosphere was released after 1988.

"All it would've taken is for one prominent fossil fuel CEO to know this was about more than just shareholder profits, and a question about our legacy," says climate scientist Michael Mann. "But now because of the cost of inaction—what I call the 'procrastination penalty'—we face a far more uphill battle."