WCS Circuit Shanghai Predictions

Being the only Korean who flew out to make the attempt, adopted Aussie KingKong did not make it through the open bracket. As the first foreign-only Premier event in years this would mean that a second foreign champion will be crowned after PtitDrogo in Leipzig only two months earlier.

Eight players made it through the regional qualifiers, four more qualified through the open bracket, and another four were invited. The top-16 consisted of six Europeans, five Chinese, two North Americans, one Latin American, one Taiwanese, and a Mongolian who qualified through SEA.

"As the first foreign-only Premier event in years this would mean that a second foreign champion will be crowned."

The popular and fairly accurate site Aligulac offers fans a chance to run the odds in the match-ups, the website yield the following results. In the Round of 16 it was 5-3 (62%), which is in the range to its usual averages just below 70%. It correctly predicted the two players who came through Group A ( PtitDrogo and Harstem), while also getting TooDming (Group B), Nerchio (Group C), and Snute (Group D) correctly. The "surprises" were Scarlett (Group C), puCK (Group D), and biggest of all, Sioras (Group B).

Sioras qualifier run was quite a good story (although accusations like this do not help). Glibly dismissed in Team Liquid's "profiles" where they admitted never having seen him play, there were doubts on the Mongolian player's abilities - especially due to his lack of an established track record of success (other than a win over Petraeus). Whether Sioras will make it any further in the tournament is not as important as whether he will be able to continue playing in the future; consider geography can sometimes stifle careers, such as that of South African player PandaTank.

Round of 8 predictions:

PtitDrogo vs TooDming - The DreamHack champion is heavily favoured (81%), winning their only encounter back in HOTS (although it is worth taking note of the French player's struggles since the adept/photo overcharge patch in late January). However, Chinese player TooDming has an unimpressive ZvP track record against decent foreigners, so it is likely PittDrogo will take this series.

Nerchio vs Snute - the odds favor (65%) the Polish player despite the two being 3-3 in their most recent matches; the Norwegian has struggled against top European Zergs (1-5 recently), while over the same period, his opponent is 7-1; the one thing working in favor of an upset is Nerchio's tendency to choke in major tournaments, but it is far too early for that to be in effect.

Sioras vs Harstem - Not surprisingly the Dutch Protoss is favored 86%, his Mongolian opponent has a limited track record in ZvP (unlike ZvZ; the SEA region isn't known for its Protoss players), but despite victories over Probe and Jieshi there is just not enough history to be favored against his opponent

Scarlett vs puCK - It feels like 2013 to have these two North American players facing off in a meaningful match-up, but the Canadian is slowly rounding into form and the American never truly fell off the map despite declining results after the stalker nerf in 2014. Scarlett is favored (59%),being the historically better player. Speaking of nerfs, since the adept/overcharge patch puCK's PvZ results have become inconsistent and lack wins over top players.

Assuming the above results, the semi-finals will look like this:

PtitDrogo vs Nerchio- The Polish player is favored (62%), despite a losing record against the French player. However, the French Protoss player's struggle since the patch are well-known, being vocal about it. In spite of his struggles, the French player has a 4-1 result in recent PvZ matches.

Harstem vs Scarlett - The Canadian has the edge (55%), and her results in large tournaments in the match-up have been excellent (4-0 in the qualifier for this event, 5-0 for the DreamHack Leipzig qualifier). Although Scarlett struggled in WCS Winter (2-2) and almost all her results are against NA players, her Dutch opponent has struggled in PvZ since the patch (5-5 of late) and has never gone deep in major tournaments, so all signs point to a Scarlett victory.



Nerchio at WCS: Winter Championship in Katowice 2016

This leaves the following best-of-seven final:

Nerchio vs Scarlett - The Polish player is a heavily favored (87%), winning their only previous match (at the same tournament), and having been better in ZvZ in LOTV. The only intangible standing in the way is that Nerchio has not won a major tournament in nearly four years (DreamHack Bucharest in 2012), while Scarlett has a number of more recent championships under her belt (the last a Red Bull Battlegrounds in 2014).

QUICKPOLL Who will win WCS Shanghai? Nerchio

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