It’s not very often that a generational talent comes on to the market just as he’s about to enter his prime in the AFL.

By my reckoning, there have been four ‘super star’ players to use free agency as a method of changing clubs since 2012: Brendon Goddard in the inaugural year, and Lance Franklin, Dale Thomas and Nick Dal Santo in 2013.

None of the prospective 2014 class of top shelf talent, which included Carlton’s Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy, Collingwood’s Dane Swan, Fremantle’s David Mundy and Port’s Travis Boak, managed to make it to October before signing new deals.

Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Reddit Email Share

Heading into the 2015 year, one name was on every club’s whiteboard: Patrick ‘Danger’ Dangerfield.

The Adelaide Crows’ number 32 is set to test the restricted free agency waters come the end of the season, after delaying contract negotiations with his current employer at the start of this year. He remains the only super star on the board, after Geelong’s Tom Hawkins and Richmond’s Alex Rance re-signed earlier in the year.

Discussion about his free agency is reaching ridiculous levels. A week very rarely goes by without another “will he stay or will he go” piece popping up in the tabloids, while I’m almost certain some are sorting through the entrails of his very active social media presence.

Speaking of which, can we stop talking about his free agency like we know the bloke personally? Every Danger discussion contains the odd pairing of words ‘Moggs’ and ‘Creek’. Didn’t pick him as a Lord of the Rings fan.

(Oh right! It’s his home town.)

Okay so next question, can anyone point me to a quote from the man himself referencing this place? I’ve not been able to find anything. The only quotes regarding his future that I’ve seen are premierships. Flags. Winning.



Admittedly, I’m perhaps two inches removed from being an armchair expert, but you’d think the entire footy world has had a quiet word or two with Danger, and feel assured enough to say “oh he’s going to Geelong so he can be closer to Moggs Creek”. It’s bizarre to me.

Anyway, at just 25 and change, Dangerfield is by my cursory analysis the youngest player to hit free agency since it was introduced. And at number three on the AFL’s Official Player Ratings, he is most certainly the best. Danger would be a slam dunk at any club, and so the thunderous clap of keys is understandable.

Sorry. I’m adding to it. I couldn’t resist. This is going to be a piece all about Patrick Dangerfield. But rather than pretend I know him, or know what he’s thinking, or know his personal values or connections to small Victorian towns, this is all about the search for Dangerfield’s best football situation.

In doing so, we’ll have a look where some of his suitors are at, both in the current season and over the next handful. The Adelaide Crows and Geelong Cats will get a look in, quite obviously. But who else is in the frame? There’s a couple of teams that I can see, and their contention for the league’s hottest signature will hopefully raise your eyebrow for a second or two.

The rats and mice

Before we get into that, a few words on the particulars of Dangerfield’s situation.

Danger is a restricted free agent, which means he has served at least eight years at a single club (drafted in 2007, so yep, tick), is in the top 25 per cent of player payments at the club (surely a tick) and is coming off contract for the first time following both of these situations occurring (last signed in 2012 after five years, so yep, tick). The payment is the key issue here: if Danger hadn’t been in the top 25 per cent, he would be an unrestricted free agent.

For the uninitiated, the critical difference between being restricted and unrestricted is that a player’s current club has first rights to re-sign their player if they can match a qualifying offer (an offer that has been tabled to the AFL) from another club, and they get to retain that player’s services. An unrestricted free agent’s club doesn’t have those rights.

This was what had Richmond panicking earlier in the year: while Rance was only a restricted free agent in tenure terms, a quirk with his contract meant he was outside of the top 25 per cent of player payments at Tigerland. It was a fleeting window into how the business of footy is changing, and will continue to change in the coming years, as more players begin to sign deals with full knowledge of free agent rules.



Dangerfield’s status as a restricted free agent instantly makes it much more likely that Adelaide will end up keeping him, because they have the right to match a rival offer. And yes, I’m aware that no restricted free agent that has received a qualifying offer has ended up staying with his current club. This season, and the next one for that matter, are different.

That’s because the football industry is about to get a massive pay rise, with the advent of a new broadcasting agreement for the 2017 season onwards. There’s still a lot of water to travel under the bridge on this, but the combination of a much bolshier AFL Player’s Association Chief in Paul Marsh and the global trend of ballooning sports rights will see the AFL’s player salary cap jump remarkably in the next few years.

Total Player Payments (TPP), which is the industry term for the salary cap, will rise to $10.37 million in 2016, which is a few hundred thousand more than clubs were planning on 18 months ago. The league’s finances are in a better shape than predicted, and the players were given some of that windfall. This change in TPP was announced as part of the AFL’s equalisation policy.

The equalisation policy contains the final little wrinkle to Danger’s situation: the introduction of the TPP banking mechanism. Bear with me, it’s less complicated than the name implies. The short version is that a club that spends less than the full TPP in the current year, it can ‘bank’ the amount that it underspends and use that to temporarily increase its TPP in the following year.

The banking is capped at five per cent of the TPP, meaning a team could have ‘banked’ up to $503,000 in salary from this year that they can use in the 2016 year. Theoretically, a club could go from spending $9.557 million on its players in 2015 to $10.863 million in 2016. That’s an extra $1.3 million.

Its obviously not that simple; an AFL club would be underspending on TPP because it doesn’t have the financial capacity to spend up to the full amount, so while the banking mechanism exists, many of the eligible clubs won’t be able to make the most of it.

But here’s the kicker: the policy was announced in 2014, meaning clubs had the off season of that year to sort out their books and make the most of the new policy for 2015 and 2016, with full knowledge that the AFL’s cap is set to rise organically from 2017 onwards.

Its fair to say Mr Dangerfield is hitting the market at the freaking perfect time. The league is morphing, and most clubs will be flush with cash to splurge on players as the cap begins to rise.



Before we get into the potential suitors, lets have a look at Dangerfield and what he means to his current, club, the Adelaide Crows.

Adelaide’s MVP

Dangerfield has been one of the most consistent players across the AFL in recent years, and has been a critical cog in Adelaide’s near-league leading offensive system.

If you exclude the cyborgs at Hawthorn, Adelaide have been the league’s second best offence in 2015, putting up a very strong Offensive Efficiency Rating of +12.9 up to Round 17. Offence has been the brand of the Crows for some time, and almost got them to a surprise Grand Final in 2012.

Their scoring power is driven very much from their midfield, and particularly their ability to turn clearance wins into inside 50s. I don’t have the numbers to back it up (#freethestats), but the eye test says Adelaide are amongst the best in the game at powering out of congestion and giving their forwards good ball. Thus far in 2015, the Crows rank third on clearance differential and total inside 50s per game respectively, and first on total inside 50s for and against per game. This suggests, all things being equal (yeah lets slap another #freethestats on), it suggests the Crows play a frenetic game style that’s balls to the wall attack.

Do you know who plays balls to the wall better than anyone in the league?

Paddy Dangerfield.

So far in 2015, Dangerfield has generated just over one in six of Adelaide’s clearances. He’s been the league’s sixth-most prolific clearance winner, averaging 7.6 per game, working alongside fellow clearance machine Scott Thompson (who is, just quietly, having an All Australian calibre year).

Danger is a threat at general play clearances, and this is where he generates the majority of his highlight reel which is growing by the week (how was that goal in the third quarter on Saturday?). But his most damaging and efficient work occurs as a centre bounce bull.



Dangerfield does it all from a centre bounce in Round 1:

If Dangerfield continues at this pace – and lets be honest, he’s going to continue at this pace – 2015 will mark the fourth straight year he has recorded 5.5 or more clearances per game. Crucially, though, Dangerfield has become a more influential player in the clinches while maintaining his presence as an around-the-ground threat. This year will see him record more than 26 possessions per game, which will again be the fourth straight year.

He hits the scoreboard, too, and is a career member of the very exclusive 20/1 club (an arbitrary statistical category I created for players that average 20 disposals and a goal a game over their career). In 2015, Dangerfield ranks sixth for direct scoreboard impact amongst players that have over 25 possessions per game, behind Gary Ablett Jnr, Nat Fyfe, Robbie Gray, Luke Parker and Isaac Smith. Of that group, only Fyfe wins more contested possessions, Smith creates more inside 50s, and Fyfe and Gray generate more clearances than Dangerfield.

Danger is plateauing at the highest of levels of output. Have I mentioned that he’s really good at football?

It’s difficult to predict what would happen if you took Dangerfield out of the Crows, because he is quite literally the most valuable player on that team. He allows them to do so much, and makes those around him better just by his presence. Would Rory Sloane be considered amongst the game’s elite if he wasn’t Robin to Dangerfield’s Batman?

Adelaide’s prospects are very good

Adelaide look set to sneak into the eight come the end of the year, sitting comfortably in sixth place with a game and a half lead on the 10th-placed Geelong. It’ll be tight around this part of the ladder for the rest of the year – even the seven win, 12th placed Port Adelaide could sneak into the eight given they appear to have refound their attacking mojo. They won’t win the flag this year, though.



Beyond this year, Adelaide’s prospects look quite promising. The Crows’ 2012 finals run has 2008 Hawthorn written all over it: a young team, emerging years ahead of time. They just didn’t quite make it to the big dance.

Adelaide have built a very strong midfield core that bats deep. Scott Thompson may only last another year or two given the taxing role that he plays, but in his place comes youngsters Brad and Matt Crouch, Brodie Smith and Ricky Henderson. Richard Douglas is a very handy depth player. Add in Dangerfield and Sloane, and a very good ruckman in Sam Jacobs, and the Crows look to have a group capable of big things.

Forward of the ball, Adelaide have one of the best tall-small pairings in Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts, Charlie Cameron looks a very bright prospect, and Josh Jenkins is emerging as a very viable full forward. Tom Lynch is reinventing himself as a tall half forward, and is second for inside 50s at the Crows in 2015.

Their defence still looks like a work in progress, as a Defensive Efficiency Rating of -6.3 (ranked 13th) would suggest. Daniel Talia is one of the best key defenders in the game, but otherwise the back six is filled out with a number of young players. Rory Laird – two Rorys on one team – is beginning to find his niche as a small defender and half back rebounder, but if I were to utter the phrase “pump the breaks, they need to…” I would finish that phrase by saying “keep building their defence”.

But as I say, Adelaide have Hawthorn written all over them. While they may not go from premature Finals run to Premiers in the same time frame as the Hawks – give or take four years – that’s not because of talent. The Crows have had a torrid time off the field, with a series of misfortunes you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy. That will set them back, no doubt, but you would be a fool to think this team has any direction to go but towards the biggest prize.

And for Dangerfield, who is clearly the team’s most important player, the football situation question fundamentally comes down to sticking with a group on the rise, or taking a leap, as a super star entering prime age, to a team on the rebuild.

The suitors

Fortunately for the sake of Danger’s optionality, there are a plethora of sides in his native Victoria that present this rebuild opportunity.

That’s a roundabout way of saying if he’s going to leave, he leaves for a Victorian team. Sydney can’t bring him in (their trade sanctions prohibit it). The Giants and Suns simply couldn’t scoop both the young talent and prime age talent sweepstakes. Brisbane aren’t in a position to offer him success. Port Adelaide would be a fun move, and Danger would be an interesting piece in the Power’s scheme, but it wouldn’t happen. West Coast wouldn’t have the cap space, and I’d guess Fremantle wouldn’t either.



Plus can you imagine having Danger and Fyfe on the same team? You might as well just tie purple ribbon to the cup for the next decade.

So yes, it’ll be Victoria. By my reckoning, there’s three teams in the running which would fit the ‘building to something’ criteria, one team with oodles of dollars, and Geelong, who are worth an examination if only because they’re the consensus pick right now.

Hawthorn couldn’t fit him in the cap, so they’re out. The Bulldogs seem to be just fine building as they are, and would prefer to load up on a quantity of free agents rather than put all their eggs in one basket, albeit it a 24 karat gold one. North Melbourne are built for here and now, and who the hell knows with Essendon.

So who’s left? Let’s find out!

Patrick Dangerfield has given the Crows faithful plenty to celebrate during his time at the club. (Photo: James Elsby/AFL Media)

Geelong

The Cats are seen as the alternative for Dangerfield, in large part because of this Moggs Creek mythos, but also because he would add something that Geelong are distinctly lacking: clearance power.

Geelong are next-to-last in clearance differential this season (-6.0 per game, equal with Essendon), and are still in the hunt for the eight despite or, not because of, their poor inside 50 differential. That’s largely a product of the players they have used to replace their core from yesteryear, but that’s a little bit of a cop out for mine.

The Cats still employ one of the oldest lists in the competition, and given how hot the competition is around those middle parts of the ladder, it seems almost inevitable that Geelong are set for a period of hardship over the coming years.



Now age isn’t everything, as I highlighted when talking about the Fremantle Dockers earlier this year, but for Geelong’s list the age profile is a little concerning. Steve Johnson aside, you’d put Geelong’s older players in their top six or seven without a doubt. And Johnson is still capable of crazy things, even if those flashes are more sparkler than firework these days.

There’s been a lot of talk about moving veterans on at Geelong. I don’t expect it to happen next year – but I do expect it to happen in 2017? Why? The AFL’s veteran allowance, which permits clubs to siphon off almost $120,000 per player per annum outside of TPP, will be abolished. That means the cap hit of these veteran players may lift between 25 per cent and 50 per cent in a single year, and squeeze the Cats just as their new group will be coming up for their sophomore contracts.

It’ll be mitigated to some extent by new TV money, but will they still be producing at a level that commands more than $120,000 than they’re being paid now? I doubt it.

My point in bringing this is up is to caution those that think Geelong is a viable option for Dangerfield for football reasons. Danger would be heading to a club in the grips of a relatively strong slide down the ladder, and may be closer to 30 before he gets back into contention.

For mine, you’re likely to see a lesser, but still quite good, clearance player head over to Geelong come the end of the year. One with a different sort of familial connection to the region.

St Kilda or Melbourne

Then comes two very young sides, where Dangerfield would enter as undoubtedly the best player.

Melbourne’s inclusion in the list of suitors is purely for financial reasons. They would most certainly fit the criteria of a club that has seen its TPP on the low side in recent years: I love you, Nathan Jones, but if you’re the face of your franchise you’d have to think there is a bit of latent cap space floating around the ‘G.

He would instantly improve the Demons, in a way that I don’t know we can get a true handle on. They say footy is a complex web of domino effects, that changing one thing in the middle of the ground can lead to a range of consequences all across the ground.



Paul Roos is renowned for clogging up the space around the ball and stopping the opposition from scoring. Its been effective this season, with the Dees improving to a DER of -5.9 (keep in mind they had been in double digit negative for the best part of forever).

What if that clogged toilet defensive scheme all of a sudden had Dangerfield’s ability to burst through congestion thrown into the mix?

I don’t think it’ll happen for the Dees, but like every other club I’m certain they’ll be making phone calls.

St Kilda, on the other hand, represent a viable sneaky option for Dangerfield’s services.

Like Melbourne, St Kilda are perhaps towards the bottom end of the TPP scale, but unlike Melbourne are having a season that is beyond expectations, to the point that their crowd numbers are up and memberships are growing. The Saints have a very bright future, as I found earlier in the year, and are playing the game’s growth and decline cycle like Bobby Fischer.

The next phase of St Kilda’s plan – say from 2017 onwards – is to use free agency to top up a list brimming with talent. Do they pull the pin a year early, and make a massive play for the biggest free agent we’ve seen to this point? Again it’s probably not likely, but don’t be surprised if their name pops up in discussions in a couple of months time.

Richmond

Speaking of a rising list, the Tigers are in a similar boat to Dangerfield’s native Crows. Their finals run from a few years back was a little ahead of time, with their unprecedented run to the eight last year, and possible (not quite probable yet, but give it a week or two) top-four finish in 2015 a reflection of a playing group that’s just about cherry ripe.

The Richmond critique is that they are a bit thin at the top, and that it is too easy for the good sides to put pressure on the likes of Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Brett Deledio. Deledio’s move out of the midfield has compounded this effect, although it’s been offset by the rise of Martin as an accumulator. Kamdyn McIntosh’s under-the-radar emergence in 2015 will help too, but they still look a little thin.



Dangerfield would flip that script. Within a season, each of Richmond’s top flighters become second or third banana. Dangerfield to Martin would become the game’s most feared phrase – imagine the two of them roaming around the ‘G. They’d look like two lions stalking a pack of wildebeest.

Richmond certainly tick the “I want to win” box, while Danger would get to join one of the league’s highest profile clubs as their best player, and build the kind of football legacy any AFL player would aspire to.

Could they make it work salary wise? This is where it gets a little more complicated for the Tigers. Player contracting is becoming more and more sophisticated across the league, with front-ended and back-ended contracts making the seemingly impossible, possible. The Tigers could lob a six or seven year deal, worth close to $900,000 or $1,000,000 a year, but with a smaller figure in the first couple of years to make it work in what is looking like a very committed cap.

The complication is Danger’s restricted free agent status. Low-balling the first couple of years would make it all but certain that Adelaide would be in the game to match the deal. The bigger numbers towards the back end could scare them off. But he’s worth it, and particularly to the Crows.

Speaking of big money…

Collingwood

The Los Angeles Lakers of the league, the Collingwood Magpies, are absolutely a contender for Patrick Dangerfield.

In fact, I would put them above Geelong as a potential destination for number 32. Perhaps the biggest complication is Danger’s number is already taken.

Think about it. Collingwood are among the league’s youngest teams, after cleaning out their roster under Coach Nathan Buckley. They play a highly contested brand of football, centred on winning ground balls, forward 50 retention, and succeeding around the clinches. Collingwood are already ranked fifth on total clearance differential in season 2015, and are similarly placed on the inside 50 differential ladder.



If there’s a scheme that’s built for a ground ball machine like Dangerfield, it’s Collingwood. But he would also add an element of class that this team is lacking, outside of the classiest of all in Pendlebury. Collingwood’s opponents would be forced to play Russian roulette every week – do I send someone to Pendles? Danger? Both? The pairing would complement each other to such an extent that it would be hard to stop on a sustained basis. Add in another season or two of play for the Pies’ young midfield, a sprinkle of Adam Treloar, and this very rapidly becomes the game’s best line up through the centre.

The league’s fourth-best offence is confounding everyone’s expectations to this point in the season, and find themselves outside of the eight by virtue of five losses by a combined margin of 69 points in their past five games. They’re already good, and if it weren’t for that string of losses, and the equally remarkable rebound of the Western Bulldogs, the Pies would be front page news.

But it’s not even that. Who do you think is on big money at the Pies? Travis Cloke would be up there. So would Scott Pendlebury. Could Steele Sidebottom and Jesse White be overpaid? When your President is amongst the best at his craft in the game, it’s not likely. The Pies would have oodles and oodles of cap space available, and unlike their competing Melbourne clubs, many of whom are battling to pay the minimum, the Pies are so rich they spurred the league to create its new equalisation system.

Wouldn’t it be the ultimate irony if Collingwood used the TPP banking mechanism to table an offer to Dangerfield that the Crows simply couldn’t match? A six year deal, worth more than $1,000,000 a season, but with a first year of more than $1.5 million?

Make no mistake. Collingwood are in the race for Dangerfield’s signature. In fact, they may be ahead coming into the last 100 metres.

Think back, did we consider Sydney a viable destination for Lance Franklin at any stage before his move was announced?

The decision

While we may not have a half hour TV special, there’s no doubt in my mind that the chase for Dangerfield’s signature will be our game’s first NBA-style free agency frenzy – if it’s not already there.

Franklin’s defection to the Swans was something of a gamechanger for how the league and its fans will view the meat market side of the AFL in the years to come. Franklin was odds-on to join the Giants, the mass media said. His move to Sydney was the ultimate blind side.



The media won’t let that kind of story slip twice. Get ready for a ramp up of the already ravenous press coverage circling Adelaide’s number 32.

Wait, you want me to make a call? It’s Adelaide. There’s almost no doubt in my mind. The only wrinkle is Collingwood, lurking like a 400 pound gorilla with an equalisation chip on its shoulder.

Which makes this whole exercise a little more than hot air, right.

But isn’t that the point?