In an abrupt policy reversal , President Clinton today agreed to allow some 20,000 Cuban refugees currently detained at Guantanamo Bay into the U.S. Any other Cubans who flee their country will be forcibly returned home -- a provision to which Havana had not previously agreed. TIME Diplomatic correspondent J.F.O. McAllister says the unexpected pact, announced this afternoon, is an effort to avert what the U.S. military worried would be new riots in the refugee camps in the hot summer months. (The Administration said it was increasingly concerned about the safety of some 6,000 American troops now stationed at Guantanamo.) That's not the only reason, McAllister adds: Clinton, ever mindful of Florida's 25 electoral votes, has been working both to appease the Cuban-American lobby and to solve the refugee problem without giving too much of a boost to Cuban President Fidel Castro . Today's solution "should be seen as part of Clinton's campaign to contain and please the Cuban Americans ," McAllister says.