Next, looking at the single-chance Finals places, we find that the most likely orderings all involve GWS finishing somewhere between 5th and 7th.

The Kangaroos also appear in each of the Top 10 orderings, most often in 8th, as do West Coast, most often in 7th, but occasionally in 6th or 8th. Geelong also make four appearances, and Hawthorn just one.

Here too it's worth noting that even the most likely of the orderings appeared in only just over 1 replicate in 30.

SIMULATING THE FINALS SERIES

Traditionally, I've not simulated the Finals until the week before they've started, but I've had a number of requests this year to extend the usual Home-and-Away projections right through to the end of the competition.

So, this week, I've done that.

The simulation of Finals works in much the same way as those in the Home-and-Away season. We use each team's current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and add a stochastic component to them for each game in each replicate.

To apply the appropriate Venue Performance values and Travel Penalties we need, however, to model the venuing of each Final, for which purpose I have assumed that:

All Victorian teams play all of their hosted Finals at the MCG

Sydney and GWS play their hosted Finals at Stadium Australia

Port Adelaide and Adelaide play their hosted Finals at the Adelaide Oval

West Coast play their hosted Finals at Subiaco

(This season, based on the simulations, there's no need to worry about Finals hosted by Fremantle, the Brisbane Lions or Gold Coast but, to avoid confusion, should the need arise, Fremantle will be assumed to host at Subiaco, and the Lions and Suns to host at the Gabba.)

We also assume, of course, that the Grand Final is played at the MCG.

So then, to the results.

In this first chart we summarise the final finish for every team that made at least one Final in at least one replicate, breaking down each team's finish by the ladder position it achieved at the end of the relevant home-and-away portion of the replicate.