Republicans are counting on President Donald Trump to help drag Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn over the finish line. | Mark Humphrey/AP Photo Elections GOP turns to Trump to rescue Tennessee Senate seat “She’s got Tennessee values,” Trump roared Monday night at a rally for Rep. Marsha Blackburn.

Donald Trump stumped in East Tennessee on Monday night to headline a rally and fundraise for Rep. Marsha Blackburn. But his mission was broader: preventing the massive upset brewing in the state’s open Senate race.

Just two years ago, Trump trounced Hillary Clinton in Tennessee, winning by 26 points. Today, Republicans are working to stave off what would be a disastrous defeat in the battle for the Senate seat left vacant by GOP Sen. Bob Corker’s retirement — a loss that could threaten the GOP’s razor-thin majority. They’re counting on the president to help drag Blackburn over the finish line.


Trump did his best to do that at the raucous rally, where attendees cheered the president and chanted, "Marsha! Marsha!"

“She’s got Tennessee values,” Trump roared. “A vote for Marsha is really a vote for me and everything that we stand for. It’s a vote for ‘Make America Great Again.’”

Blackburn, briefly addressing the crowd, lauded Trump’s “amazing 20 months” in office.

“I know that the Democrats keep saying that there is a blue wave coming,” she added, “but let me tell you something: ‘Mr. President, when that blue wave gets to the state line, it is going to run smack dab into the great red wall.”

Yet Blackburn and state Republicans are leaning so hard on Trump that the pivotal Senate race might come down to a single question: How much Trump is too much?

“I think it’s a vulnerable race in a very Republican state,” said longtime Tennessee Republican strategist Tom Ingram. “I think Trump is still popular here. But this is a statewide race, not a district race. The dynamics change a lot between a polarized district and a broader-based state.”

Monday’s events marked the president’s second visit to the state since the spring. That’s on top of the images from a Trump rally that appear in Blackburn’s TV ads, her repeated touting of the president’s endorsement and, in a recent 30-second spot, using Trump’s own words to blast Democratic opponent Phil Bredesen.





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Republicans predicted that Monday night’s rally in Johnson City would motivate a sluggish base that will be essential to a Blackburn win this fall. The event was in Washington County, in the heart of Trump territory, where the president cleaned up in 2016, winning nearly 70 percent of the vote.

“When you have a president that goes to that length in order to see people, that just absolutely gets our folks very fired up and enthused about what we need to do for the election,” Republican Party Chairman Scott Golden said before the rally. “For him to be here, to personally come and talk to the people — 7, 8, 9,000, whatever it ends up being — in an arena setting, is electric.”

Trump’s visit couldn’t have come at a better time for the GOP. Blackburn has fallen behind in recent polls. She’s up against a wealthy two-term ex-governor with statewide name recognition, who’s also popular among female voters who are uncomfortable with Trump.

For months, the president himself has monitored Blackburn’s polling in the race, according to three White House aides and allies. Trump has personally called her to check in and offer his encouragement, tweeted supportive messages on her behalf and hosted a Nashville rally in the spring. The president, the sources said, was behind deploying Vice President Mike Pence last month to Knoxville, where he headlined a $1,000-a-person Blackburn fundraiser.

Ad spending data show that six Republican-aligned groups have booked airtime for the Tennessee Senate race through November, having spent nearly twice as much on reservations in the final weeks as Democrats.

America First, the major Trump-aligned super PAC, is watching the Tennessee race closely and contemplating whether it needs to assist. Another super PAC, the Committee to Defend the President, has run polling and predictive modeling that shows Blackburn is better-positioned, based on a partisan breakdown of who is going to vote, a source with the group told Politico.





But that’s dependent on Republicans getting their electorate to the polls.

The catastrophic scenario of having the Tennessee Senate seat fall into Democrats’ hands for the first time in nearly three decades is not lost on Republicans — from Trump on down. A win in Tennessee would give Democrats breathing room: Even if one of their own endangered Senate incumbents loses in November, they’d still have a chance at winning the Senate.

That’s why both sides have paid close attention to voter turnout efforts. Garren Shipley, a Republican National Committee spokesman, said that since 2012, the party has heavily invested in data.

“For Tennessee, that means campaigns armed with the most up-to-date information possible,” Shipley said. “This is the most hard-nosed, impressive ground game Tennessee has seen since the days of General [Robert] Neyland,” he added, referring to the legendary University of Tennessee football coach.

Mary Mancini, Tennessee Democratic Party chair, pointed to August primary results as evidence momentum is with Democrats.

Mancini said the primary showed “an increase in turnout all across the board,” for Democrats. “We flooded the field with county commission candidates, state House and Senate candidates. People were just excited to come out and vote for a Democrat,” she said, noting that recruiting more Democrats to compete in local races is key to motivating the party across the state.

Out of 118 state House and Senate races, for example, Democrats have candidates in 104 of them. “That’s the most we’ve had in 20 years,” she said.

Democrats contend the GOP’s heavy reliance on the Trump brand is a miscalculation. Republicans are betting all their resources on their base, they say, while Democrats are busy expanding theirs with a candidate who appeals to independents and crossover Republicans.





In one ad, Bredesen touts an “A” rating with the NRA when he was governor. The NRA, however, has called on Bredesen to pull that ad, saying the group has given Bredesen a “D” rating in the Senate race, while endorsing Blackburn. Bredesen also recently opened up a debate by announcing he wouldn’t support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.



In one of Bredesen’s ads, he stares into the camera vowing he’ll stand with Trump when it’s appropriate.

Trump challenged that pledge Monday evening, arguing that a vote for Bredesen is a vote for Schumer and Democrats, who will “flood your streets with criminal aliens,” expand health care to unauthorized immigrants, “abolish immigration enforcement entirely,” block conservative judges and withhold spending on the military.

“He seems like a nice guy,” Trump said of Bredesen, linking the Democrat to Nancy Pelosi and noting his financial support for Clinton and Barack Obama, “but what good does that do?”

Citing tariffs that he says have hurt manufacturing companies in the state, Bredesen says that, when necessary, he would step away from Trump and vote “with Tennessee.”

“He’s the candidate that fits Tennessee the best,” Chris Hayden of the left-leaning Majority Forward said of Bredesen. “He’s shown he has an independent streak, and he’s going to stand up for Tennessee first.”

Majority Forward, a nonprofit group affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, is administering $24 million in voter mobilization efforts in key Senate races, primarily focused on Tennessee, Arizona, Missouri and Indiana.

Ingram said Tennessee Republicans can’t count on Trump’s popularity transferring to Blackburn, pointing out that some who have tried emulating Trump by going far to the right failed to connect with voters. He pointed to the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary, where, he said, the two Republican candidates who were the most conservative and mostly aligned with the president finished second and third.

“There’s only one Trump,” Ingram said. “And Trump voters are Trump voters. It’s a mistake to consider that they’re all ultraconservative voters. They’re angry, frustrated, felt-left-out voters. Some of them are very conservative, some aren’t. They’re all over the board in Tennessee. I think putting all of your eggs in the Trump basket in Tennessee is a little risky.”

CORRECTION: Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this story incorrectly referred to a chant of “Martha! Martha!” The crowd chanted “Marsha! Marsha!" CLARIFICATION: An earlier version of this story reported Bredesen touted an “A” rating from the NRA. The rating was from Bredesen’s days as governor. The NRA has now given Bredesen a “D” rating.