United need another elite signing before the transfer window shuts while Solskjær has to keep Pogba onside

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 5th (NB: this is not necessarily Jamie Jackson’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 6th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 33-1

In the six previous summer markets since Sir Alex Ferguson retired Manchester United were stuck in a groundhog day of disappointing recruitment that presaged underwhelming campaigns.

In summer window No 7 it has been the turn of Ole Gunnar Solskjær to try to break the cycle. The Norwegian’s challenge was to succeed where David Moyes, Louis van Gaal and José Mourinho failed: begin a rebuild of the club that was joined-up and catered for the short- and long-term before finally leaving the gilded Ferguson era in sepia by creating a new, successful United.

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Although Solskjær has overseen a considerable overhaul of the club’s back-of-house football operation via a restructure of the academy and recruitment of fresh support staff, the front of house is less convincing. The completed transfer for Leicester’s defender Harry Maguire helps in that regard but unless another high-class player is added before trading closes on Thursday this could prove only a partly-taken opportunity, though the manager might counter that his intent not to add quick fixes is evidence of a clear, strategic approach. This is how those of the club characterised the rejection of a move for Tottenham’s Toby Alderweireld when the defender’s release clause was at £25m.

How and why Solskjær faces a serious squad reconstruction is personified by Paul Pogba. The 26-year-old wanted to leave this summer. Three years after signing for Mourinho he saw a stagnating operation and wondered why he should hang about.

His first year back ended with the EFL Cup and Europa League claimed. At the close of the next United finished seconda best finish since Ferguson. Yet last summer Mourinho began displaying discontent and by Christmas was gone. United, after briefly reviving under Solskjær, fell apart and ended sixth.

Yet despite the wish to depart Pogba was on the plane to Perth for the start of the pre-season tour: hardly what Solskjær required as he attempted to build team spirit and cohesion. And by the time United left Australia for a third match in Singapore the mood music had changed remarkably.

The prospect of Pogba leaving was now an outside bet – primarily because of Real Madrid (or any suitor) not having the funds, and so United and the player are on course to embark on another season in which neither is delighted to remain with the other.

What Solskjær has done with aplomb is keep relations with Pogba cordial. The reward may be Pogba returning to the performance level that had the midfielder shining when Solskjær first took over.

The irony is that Pogba is precisely the quality of talent Solskjær needs to add more of, not lose. Yet to retain him by default is a gauge of the dysfunction at the club. Romelu Lukaku can be included in a similar class. The Belgian may not be an elite No 9 but he was, again, United’s top scorer – with 15 goals to Marcus Rashford’s 14. Despite the 26-year-old’s wish to go he could end up staying but, again, only because no deal has been possible.

As with Pogba, Solskjær has remained polite in press conferences about Lukaku, so unlike, say, Zinedine Zidane and Gareth Bale at Real Madrid, there should be no problem if the Norwegian calls upon him. This is smart management from Solskjaer.

At Manchester City or Liverpool Pogba and Lukaku would be only two stars in a glittering constellation and it is this quality deficit Solskjær has to address. In the 21-year-olds Daniel James (£15m from Swansea City) and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£45m, Crystal Palace), he has added dynamic footballers who fit the desired profile. But they cannot be expected to bridge the talent chasm to City and Liverpool.

Maguire is identified as one who can start to do so. Leicester’s £80m valuation may be excessive but given the serial missteps in recent years and the money squandered – £59.3m for Ángel Di María in 2014 is an illustration – now is the time to overspend and accelerate the catch-up to United’s rivals. Maguire adds quality to a group of centre-backs that – Victor Lindelöf apart – cannot be classed as stellar. Phil Jones, Chris Smalling, Marcos Rojo, Axel Tuanzebe and the injured Eric Bailly complete the personnel there.

Rashford needs to raise his scoring ratio from 27 league goals in 111 appearances – one per 248 minutes – and Solskjær may redeploy Anthony Martial at centre-forward and ask the Frenchman to compete there. It is where Martial has performed best for United: under Van Gaal in 2015-16 he scored 17 times, and his overall return is better than Rashford’s – 34 league goals at one per 217 minutes.

Resources in forward areas are questionable. The 17-year-old Mason Greenwood may have been eye-catching in the desultory 2-0 loss to Cardiff on the final day of last season but he is unproven. James is less raw, having Championship experience for Swansea and with Wales but the challenge is to turn it on on most matchdays. At 19 Tahith Chong is two years younger and has 73 minutes of first-team experience.

Jesse Lingard provokes a different debate: is he a No 10 or a wide player and can a player who will be 27 in December be a consistent game-changer? Juan Mata has signed a fresh deal but is yet to be an automatic choice under Solskjær.

The midfield can be filed under questionable, too. Here, Solskjær has Pogba, Scott McTominay (relatively inexperienced), Nemanja Matic (31 and sluggish), Fred (yet to convince) and Andreas Pereira (erratic) as recognised operators. Beyond these are, again, more hopefuls – the 18-year-olds James Garner and Angel Gomes – which will show up the lack of a replacement for Ander Herrera as serious folly should none be forthcoming.

Solskjær has stated it would be “miraculous” if United compete this season. Regarding the title this is a fair assessment and though a top-four place is also an outside prospect, the manager will inform his players this has to be the minimum aim. Really, though, Solskjær’s focus is to gel the squad into a recognisable unit that features a discernible style and spirit and shows evidence of an upward trajectory.

Last season ended with an alarming collapse that brought no wins from the last five matches. It meant Europa League football for 2019-20, just as Mourinho had in 2015-16. The fall to sixth place – United had been fourth, level with Tottenham, in third, with seven matches left – had the naysayers pointing to Solskjær’s callowness and questioning his appointment as permanent manager.

That came during March and appeared a no-brainer. United were three points from a Champions League berth and Solskjær had overseen a record start of eight straight wins and had lost once in his first 17 matches.

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If the plunge that occurred was barely credible, pre-season has, at least, impressed.

This, though, is a phoney war. When Chelsea roll into Old Trafford on the opening Sunday, the real stuff begins.