Fulham FC v Brentford FC - Craven Cottage Fri 12.30

*Fixture rearranged for 20th June

So here we arrive. 3rd vs 4th. Parker v Frank, Mitrovic v Watkins in what is an exciting matchup for all interested in playoff spots.

West Brom are scheduled to play a dangerous Birmingham City side in a lunchtime Midlands derby where dropped points will keep the automatic promotion door ajar for the winner of this tie.

The reverse fixture at Griffin Park saw Brentford deservedly win the West London bragging rights.

The only goal of the game came via Benrahma receiving the ball on the edge of the box after strong hold up play from Watkins saw him outmuscle Mawson. Fulham bodies crowd the Algerian and block his direct route to goal so he travels right with ball into the box towards the only space ahead of him and clips a perfectly weighted ball into Mbeumo, who’d seen the situation developing and makes an intelligent diagonal run from left to right to get to the back post and on the blindside of Christie to finish with a left footed volley.

So how has Fulham evolved since the previous fixture?

Rodak is the undoubted no.1 choice for Fulham in goal.

Mawson struggled in the loss at Griffin Park with the physicality and quick thinking of Watkins and has not featured for Fulham since the middle of January. His replacement in the side is January window signing Michael Hector, who joined permanently from Chelsea, via Reading, Sheff Weds, Eintracht Frankfurt and others.

Hector is sharper and more mobile in the defensive line than a somewhat clumsy Mawson, and alongside Ream makes for a far stronger defensive partnership. They are better as a pair in transition and compliment the side when their long passing moves break down, which can lead to quick opposition counter attacks.

Josh Onomah is no longer an option for Parker in central midfield. The Spurs loanee has a serious knee problem which has kept him out of the side since a heavy home defeat to Barnsley and there potentially a further month on top before he’s available for selection.

Joe Bryan was at left back when the sides last met and offers the side the natural attacking left sided balance that helps them find Mitrovic. An injury doubt this time around, the Ex Bristol City man could be replaced by Dennis Odoi, which would be a huge positive for Brentford.

Odoi is far less of an attacking threat and more reserved in output and his positioning. This leads to Fulham having a more disciplined back 4 which can struggle to switch into a back 3 with either full back joining in with the wide attackers, who can end up lacking support, relying on individual skill or bullying their way towards goal to create chances.

Christie, caught out at Griffin Park at right back could again be in for a torrid time. Not only will he have the 1v1 threat of Benrahma to focus on, defensively, he’ll need positional support from the selected winger in front of him. Added to this, midfielders will also need to shift right out of possession to prevent Brentford overloading the left hand side during build up. The movement from Brentford down their left flank is outstanding with Pinnock, Dasilva, Henry and Benrahma co-ordinating on and off ball to slice through the seemingly prepared defensive shapes.

Nørgaard joining in here with a quick return pass to Dasilva against Sheffield Wednesday exposes the entire team and their struggles in how to negate Brentford rotating positions.

If we look at the natural movement of central midfielders towards the centre and left and then the positioning of players on Fulham's right hand wing, the wide forward selection is going to be a key decision for Parker. His side struggled to contain Bristol City’s left wing due to lack of protection for Christie and Kamara regularly left too much space between himself and his full back.

It was less sophisticated movement from Bristol when compared with the problems Brentford will pose. Parker will of course primarily be focussed on how the selection performs going forwards but Knockaert does have the discipline when pushed to contribute in both attack and defence. He has been struggling with a hamstring injury in recent weeks although did make an impact from the bench last time out vs Bristol City.

Anthony Knockaert Heat Map 19/20

Kebano and Kamara have featured regularly down this flank but neither are known for extensive defensive work. Knockaerts’ fitness may force Parker's hand and limit the Frenchman’s impact to coming in from the bench.

A theme this season has been Fulham in defensive transition and they may again find themselves unstuck with Harry Arter now looking like the Fulham mainstay in defensive midfield. Bristol City combined well to play around Arter in the last outing and Parker must be hoping that his ideas on dominating the ball outweigh their lack of deeper ball winners or aggressive pressing off it.

Bobby Reid played as one of the advanced central midfielders vs Bristol City and spent time pinning himself on Massengo. When Reid features, he offers more variety in his attacking movement being drawn into the central goal scoring positions close to Mitrovic. He can also take shots or chances away from the Serb which is something the opposition would generally prefer.

Against Brentford, we expect Reid to apply the most pressure to try and frustrate Nørgaard as much as possible, preventing the Dane from picking up simple balls from Raya and then turning to play progressive passes to Dasilva or Marcondes.

In Brentford previous fixture vs Sheffield Wednesday, The Owls continually struggled without the ball due to the setup decided on by Monk. Unlike Monk, Parker is going to seem more thoughtful by default here, how his side covers space out of possession will naturally match up with the preferred shape for Thomas Frank because there are clear similarities with how the Brentford and Fulham setups have been constructed, the roles and players strengths within them provide the variation.

Fulham, ready to face off against Bristol City last time out have a clearly defined single pivot midfield with two 8s advanced to the left and right of Arter. The setup of choice for Brentford.

The problem Fulham have found themselves falling into this season is this state of monotonous build up which moves the ball wide, and then backwards, back across the back 4, down another wing and then back again with no player rotations or obvious plans to shift the opposition out of their defensive shape.

With over 20,000, Fulham are way out in front as the league's leaders for passes attempted. They also complete more of their passes than any other side which you’d assume is a good thing but this doesn't translate into league shot dominance. Leeds, Brentford, WBA and Barnsley are all able to generate more shots per game while attempting less passes.

For Fulham, open play can become predictable and safe. They’re regularly outpassed when looking at the volume of passes going into the box, which could be seen as an indicator of how risk averse they are in possession.

Of all of the shots, Brentford, along with Stoke and WBA allow, they lead the way with only 48% coming from inside the box.

56% of the shots Fulham face are coming from inside their box, but what is more startling for a side so high up in the table is only 49% of the shots they take themselves are box shots.

Fulham's shot differential of 2.6 per game is a positive but is almost half of the 4.9 per game Brentford are averaging this year.

The elite finishing of Mitrovic is the stand out factor propelling this side to the level it is currently at with the Serbian forward scoring almost 50% of Fulham’s total league goals this year.

Mitrovic is crucial to the Fulham system but he’s also largely removed from how most of the system functions. All of the overpassing back and forwards in the wide areas is underpinned by the overall idea that Mitrovic will eventually get high value shots away if balls are at any point played into his direction.

Staying within the width of the 18 yard box, the powerful Serb is formidable in the air and with his first touch is clever enough to quickly move a ball into a position that enables him to get shots away.

When marked, Mitrovic is also able to make space for himself in the box with clever movements and feints so that pull backs can be struck first time towards goal.

His physicality makes him certain for a particular type of battle with defenders and a great foil for a high possession team. Mitrovic was well marshalled in the reverse fixture at Griffin Park, offering the forward threat that Pinnock and Jansson particularly relish. He managed just a single shot that game, a ridiculous attempt from his own half which he didn’t properly connect with eventually trickling through to David Raya.

Let’s not do the league's leading scorer a disservice here. As much as the Brentford defenders now thrive on this type of battle versus foot races with quick forwards in behind their backline, he’s a dangerous player who will take plenty of coordinated work to stop.

A player Fulham’s defenders won’t be looking forward to facing is Ollie Watkins. A close second in the scoring charts but leading with for non-penalty goals, the 24yr old can do everything.

Watkins vs Blackburn

In a matter of months the narrative has gone from him being a square peg in a round hole to the most complete forward in the division.

From winning headers from Raya long clearances to dropping short or wide so that wingers can rotate into central positions, Watkins possesses the dribbling ability to apply pressure on the shoulder of defenders to picking up clever positions in the box to making goals for himself.

The size, speed and movement Watkins possesses means Brentford can attack with greater variation than when Maupay lead the forward line. Brentford are on course to eclipse the long balls played last season and have far more variety in attack compared to previous versions of the side. Frank has assembled a team that can score from range if the opposition sit in a low block, counter attack when placed under heavy pressure or play out of trouble with clever rotations when opponents attempt poor pressing in advanced areas.

This is the toughest test Fulham could have apart from Leeds. Both sides make meaningful uses of possession and have the ability to keep the ball and generate shots at a higher rate than Fulham.

Brentford’s main weakness in the absence of Pontus Jannson looks to be from set-pieces. Fulham to date are one the weakest sides in this areas, converting the second lowest number of set piece goals, with 8.

Parker is not always given the plaudits he deserves in solidly cementing this side into the playoff places and in reality touching distance of the top two.

It’s likely due to the squad he possesses on paper, stronger than that of Leeds but obviously far behind in terms of coaching. From 30+ games they also look less tactically polished when compared to Brentford with a far greater financial outlay than their West London rivals could ever imagine.

So to not be setting the pace in a league where WBA and Leeds could feasibly win by 15-20 points is likely where the detachment of respect for Parker and his sides performance comes from. Is Parker underachieving with this group or is this their true level?

Frank won the first tussle, mainly through isolating Mitrovic and exposing the partnership of Mawson and Ream. The injured Mokotjo played an important role in and out of possession for the Danish Head Coach back in December, positioning himself well and gaining control in front of the back 4. His experience in tight games will be missed.

Parker has been entrusted with taking this talented and expensive squad back to the EPL at the first time of asking, Friday could have huge implications on that as Brentford look to derail those plans and further add to their own promotion ideas.

Tactical Coffee Anyone?

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