IT'S an odd thing to say amid one of the most boring, substance-free elections in Australian history, but we're on the verge of something extraordinary. Tony Abbott has a very strong chance of becoming prime minister, having run the most invisible campaign in living memory. Abbott is not even really playing small-target politics at the moment. He's playing no-target politics. It's not "me too". The government isn't popular enough for that. It's just "look at them".

He can do this because Labor's campaign - in both its real and fake editions - is doing the work for him. The fact that the government now plays Kevin Rudd as its trump card (the same man who was so toxic six weeks ago that he had to be sacked) illustrates how deep the hole is. Especially when you consider that Rudd sounds more impressive than any of the leaders on offer. Both Gillards included.

But hereabouts things get tricky for the Coalition. Its campaign has Abbott hiding not just from the public, but from himself. For now, it's fine. Good polling covers a multitude of sins, but let this not conceal that the Coalition is scarcely in gleaming condition. It is ideologically divided and, like Labor, has resorted to populism and the kind of policy inconsistency it could come to regret.

The cracks are just beginning to show. On Friday we learned that if the Coalition wins government, several Coalition MPs, including a Liberal frontbencher, are planning to fight Abbott introducing the parental leave scheme he was trumpeting so boldly this past week. The Nationals are against it, and the policy represents a seismic shift from the Liberal Party's free-market philosophy.

The Business Council of Australia has slammed it as "policy on the run" and it is now causing consternation in safe Liberal seats.