It is often a fool's errand to predict turning points in the more erratic Asian economies. Nowhere is that truer than the Philippines, whose greatest consistency seems to be disappointing the optimists.

With Europe sliding, America limping, Japan shrinking and the once-unstoppable China slowing, it's anyone's guess where the Philippines might be in three years. At the risk of looking foolish in, say, 2015, I think it will be in a far better place than it has been in a decade.

My faith rests on four things that Benigno Aquino has done since assuming the presidency in June 2010. These were moves that mark a keen understanding of what ails Asia's 12th-biggest economy and flashes of courage that were absent in his three predecessors.

First, a nuanced focus on the economy. Gloria Arroyo seemed infatuated with raising gross domestic product during her tenure from 2001 to 2010. It was just talk. Arroyo, like Joseph Estrada before her, was all about the cult of GDP that beguiles many Asian leaders. This obsession masks big cracks in economies with headline-grabbing growth rates that serve mainly to deflect political opposition.

One in four Filipinos lives on fewer than $1.25 a day. The Occupy Wall Street movement harps on the 1 per cent. In the Philippines, it's more like the 0.01 per cent of politically connected citizens who reap the spoils. Aquino wants to tighten mining rules, cut tax breaks and review contracts to make sure average Filipinos benefit from resources and limit the industry's impact on the environment. He is upgrading infrastructure to attract foreign investment that would create jobs.