The Enquirer and the Associated Press

Across the Cincinnati region and the nation, the Census Bureau has reached out to every U.S. household as it begins the 2020 Census. From March 12 through March 20, the agency will send letters with a form, asking people to answer the census online, by mail or by phone.

Obstacles typically arise with the census, but issues with getting a good count in the Cincinnati region are expected to be focused in 11 communities.

If the counting problems weren't bad enough, the Census is having trouble recruiting people to knock on doors of people who don't respond to the Census in all local areas except Warren County. A strong economy has made hiring difficult, even as the door-to-door survey in May, June and July could be complicated by the new coronavirus.

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Roughly half of Cincinnati is considered hard to count by the Census Bureau because it has more than 20,000 vacant housing units, sparse internet access and high poverty – factors that combine to make the city a tough community to tally.

Obtaining an accurate count is critical because the census determines the allocation of $1.5 trillion in federal spending for states, counties and municipalities. The Census also decides which states gain or lose congressional seats, with Ohio on the cusp of losing another congressional seat.

Cincinnati officials estimate the city will get $18,000 over 10 years for each resident that's counted. The city and Hamilton County have joined with other municipalities and business leaders to ensure as complete a count as possible locally. They even have a hashtag for the effort: #GreaterCincyCounts.

“There is nothing more important, no higher priority, than reaching the hard to count,” Census Bureau Director Steven Dillingham told lawmakers last summer.

Nationwide, about a quarter of the population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods, including a majority of people in Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Memphis, Tennessee, and Fresno, California.

Cincinnati isn't alone locally in being tough to count fully, an Enquirer analysis of government data compiled by the Associated Press shows.

Ten other local areas, identified by the Census as problem spots because they have large groups of citizens who are traditionally under-counted, are:

Newport , where 62% of the city is hard-to-count because of its high levels of adult and child poverty. Newport's rate is the highest of any city that doesn't have a large number of college students or members of the Armed Forces; both groups are being traditionally hard to count.

, where 62% of the city is hard-to-count because of its high levels of adult and child poverty. Newport's rate is the highest of any city that doesn't have a large number of college students or members of the Armed Forces; both groups are being traditionally hard to count. Oxford at 52%, because of having so many college students (a high proportion of people aged 18 to 24 and people living in poverty). Students living away from home at school should be counted at school in most cases, even if they are temporarily elsewhere due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Census Bureau said in an advisory Sunday.

at 52%, because of having so many college students (a high proportion of people aged 18 to 24 and people living in poverty). Students living away from home at school should be counted at school in most cases, even if they are temporarily elsewhere due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Census Bureau said in an advisory Sunday. Forest Park at 35%, because of a high level of children under the age of 5 and a large African American population.

at 35%, because of a high level of children under the age of 5 and a large African American population. Covington at 30%, because of a high number of children under 6 living with relatives and a high poverty rate.

at 30%, because of a high number of children under 6 living with relatives and a high poverty rate. Hamilton at 29%, because of a poor response rate to the 2010 Census.

at 29%, because of a poor response rate to the 2010 Census. Middletown at 28%, because of high rates of adult and child poverty.

at 28%, because of high rates of adult and child poverty. Fairfield at 18%, because of a high proportion of people aged 18 to 24 and a high number of people living in buildings with 10 or more units.

at 18%, because of a high proportion of people aged 18 to 24 and a high number of people living in buildings with 10 or more units. Norwood at 18%, because of a high proportion of people identified as "some other race" and high poverty.

at 18%, because of a high proportion of people identified as "some other race" and high poverty. All of Lockland and Lincoln Heights, adjoining villages in north-central Hamilton County, are considered hard to count by the Census. High levels of poverty and high numbers of people with smartphones but no computers are key reasons, according to the Census data.

Finding enumerators is an issue

In 2010, Cincinnati's initial response rate to the Census was only 59%, seven points lower than Ohio's and 10 points lower than the nation's.

That means the Census has to send out people out to knock on the doors of households to get them to respond. It isn't just cumbersome, it's also expensive for the Census. The cost of a door knock was $91 in 2010, up 475% since 1970.

The U.S. Census Bureau hopes to hire up to a half-million temporary workers for the once-a-decade head count. These enumerator positions are critical for conducting a complete count, as they are tasked with making follow-up calls, knocking on doors and interviewing people that do not fill out a census form themselves.

But the bureau has been criticized for not meeting recruiting goals in a timely manner. A separate Associated Press analysis shows that there is some evidence that low unemployment rates are complicating the bureau's ability to recruit workers.

In the Cincinnati region, the AP analysis shows the Census had hired only 67% of enumerators for Southeast Indiana's Ohio County, Indiana and 69% of enumerators for Boone and Butler counties. It had 112% of the enumerators it needed in Warren County by Feb. 24.

How Detroit plans to avoid undercount

In Detroit, the toughest city in America for the Census because 80% of neighborhoods are considered hard to count, resident Annette Brock said some residents see no connection between answering questions from the government and improving their lives.

“Everybody else outside of us gets help before we do,” Brock said. “I don’t blame nobody if they don’t want to participate, or if they don’t want to help, or if they don’t want to say nothing no more. They’re tired of speaking their mind.”

Nationwide, the Census Bureau predicts a 60.5% response rate in 2020.

About 70% of Detroit residents turned in their 2000 Census forms. That figure fell to 64% a decade later, when the national rate was 74 percent.

In 2010, 220,000 Detroit residents were living in households that did not fill out questionnaires, costing the city $2,000 to $5,000 annually for every uncounted person, said Victoria Kovari, executive director of Detroit’s 2020 Census Campaign.

To get those numbers back up, city census teams have knocked on nearly 130,000 doors in neighborhoods that were under-counted in the last census and spoken with more than 26,000 people. But Kovari is still concerned. For the first time, the Census Bureau would like respondents to answer questions online, but the agency estimates that 30% of Detroit households lack regular connection to the internet, roughly double the national percentage.

The Census Bureau sends workers to homes that don’t respond. In Detroit, that means knocking on the doors of vacant houses and others where residents may not answer.

Almost 80% of Detroit is African American, and observers “know we are going to have an undercount among the black population,” said Diana Elliott, an Urban Institute researcher who co-wrote a report last summer that estimated anywhere from 900,000 to 4 million people could be missed.

“That puts Detroit at greater risk just because of the demographics,” Elliott said.

Researchers have learned that Latinos, African Americans, non-English-speaking immigrants and children under 5 are the hardest to count, along with tribal members, nontraditional families and people with informal living arrangements.

Experts say the Trump administration’s effort to put a citizenship question on the questionnaire may scare off immigrants who live here illegally and others. Although the effort failed, opponents of the question say damage has already been done.