The NFL season is here. How's your confidence level?

Specifically, how's your confidence in your team's quarterback situation?

This is no time to be messing around. The way teams are set (or not set) at the most critical position will go a long way toward determining how many games they'll win. So as we do periodically, we're taking a look at our QB Confidence Index.

Please remember: This is NOT a ranking of each team's starting quarterback. This is an assessment of each team's confidence in its quarterback situation overall. It takes into account the quality of the starter, the quality of the backup and the reliability of the starter's health -- everything that could come into play at some point about the team's quarterback situation.

Keep in mind that we do this every month during the season and that the rankings are therefore fluid. But as of now, leading up to the first Sunday of the regular season, here's where things stand.

Click on the links below to go directly to your team.

ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS

Totally confident

It says everything you need to know about Tom Brady that a team with a 40-year-old starter could sit atop this list. But Brady just had one of his best seasons, and Jimmy Garoppolo is regarded as perhaps the top backup quarterback in the entire league. New England turned down all overtures for Garoppolo trades this offseason, which tells you the team was determined to keep its quarterback situation intact. And why not? A decision awaits following the season on what to do with pending free agent Garoppolo -- re-sign him, let him go, maybe franchise him? But the Patriots are in a position to evaluate Brady after another season and see what makes the most sense for 2018 and beyond.

If there's a better quarterback in the league than Brady, it's Aaron Rodgers, who put a substandard Packers offense on his back last season and carried it all the way to the NFC Championship Game. Backup Brett Hundley is also well-regarded, even though the only games we've really seen him play have been in the preseason. The thought around the league is that being coached by Mike McCarthy and his staff has to be good for a quarterback's development, and while Hundley is unproven, it's not out of the question that he generates interest on the trade market next offseason.

Matt Ryan is the reigning league MVP at age 32, and even though former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan left to coach the 49ers, Ryan will be operating the same offense that scored 33.8 points per game in 2016. Matt Schaub stayed on as Ryan's understudy instead of following Shanahan to San Francisco, so the Falcons have an experienced backup who knows the offense in case Ryan (who hasn't missed a game since 2009) were to go down. It's worth at least wondering whether the change of coordinators to Steve Sarkisian will affect this offense's performance on game days. But big picture, this is a team supremely confident in what it has at the position. Ryan has two years left on his contract and will likely get a monster extension next summer.

Matthew Stafford, who just signed the richest contract in NFL history, has thrived under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. Tim Fuller/USA TODAY Sports

If you had any doubt about the way the Lions feel about Matthew Stafford, the $27 million-a-year contract extension they gave him in late August should have scrubbed that right away. He's the guy there for the long term, and he's coming off a 2016 season in which he led eight fourth-quarter come-from-behind wins. Jake Rudock is an unproven backup who'd be a major downgrade, but the fact that Stafford is just 29 and hasn't missed a game since 2010 makes that less of a concern.

Confident ... for now

Not only are the Saints confident that Drew Brees will be their quarterback this season, they're the only team on this list that can be reasonably confident their quarterback will throw for five thousand yards. Brees has done this five times in his career, most recently last season (with a completion percentage of 70.0, by the way). The rest of the NFL has done it four times ever -- and no quarterback other than Brees has done it more than once. The Saints feel good about backup Chase Daniel, and the only reasons the Saints don't rank higher on this list are Brees' age (38) and the fact that he's not signed beyond 2017. There's no indication Brees wants to go anywhere else, and he's likely to stick around through at least 2018 in order to pass Peyton Manning atop the NFL's career passing-yardage list. But the fact that Brees is so much closer to the end than to the beginning -- and that there's no Garoppolo behind him -- leaves the Saints out of the top tier.

Ben Roethlisberger is 35, publicly flirted with retirement this offseason and has played a full 16-game schedule just three times in his 13-year career. Landry Jones has been a fair backup but isn't the long-term replacement, and while the team feels great about rookie Joshua Dobbs, it's far too early to assess his long-term prospects. The Steelers' offense should hum as long as Roethlisberger is on the field, but he can't be counted on to stay there, and it's worth wondering how much longer he'll play.

Sensing a theme? Eli Manning is 36. He hasn't missed a game since becoming the Giants' starter in 2004, so it doesn't much matter that Geno Smith is the backup. The Giants are not higher because Manning is heading into the tail end of his career, because his performance dipped a bit in 2016 and because they can't be sure about the plan if he were to get hurt or retire. They drafted Davis Webb in the third round, and he fits what coach Ben McAdoo wants to do with his offense, but Webb is a project and they can't know for sure if he's the long-term answer. No team is more confident in its quarterback's durability than the Giants, but this isn't 2008 anymore, which is why they're not ranked higher.

Here we go again. Philip Rivers turns 36 in December. He has been an iron man, playing in every game since becoming the starter in 2006, but the Chargers can't have any idea what the replacement plan is if he decided to leave in the next few years. It's not Kellen Clemens and there's no way to know if it could be Cardale Jones. Add in Rivers' 21 interceptions and seven fumbles from last season, and the Chargers sit nicely in this tier of teams that have more confidence in their QB situation than most but at least some level of short- and long-term concern.

Some confidence, some questions

Where to start with Russell Wilson? Well, we're feeling good at this point, so how about with the good. He never misses games. He plays hurt. He has won a Super Bowl, so they know he can do that. He's only 28 and he's signed for three more years. The bad? Well, this offseason came with revelations that he's not the best-loved fellow in his own locker room. One year after winning the Super Bowl, he threw one of the most devastating interceptions in the game's history to lose the Super Bowl. And the team's continued refusal to invest in the offensive line in any meaningful way means there's always going to be a strong chance that he continues to get hurt. The Seahawks looked at Colin Kaepernick but decided to go with far lower-ceiling options at backup quarterback, so if Wilson goes down it's Austin Davis. And that's not good. Still, Wilson alone makes this a top-10 situation.

Derek Carr had 28 touchdown passes and six interceptions in 2016. Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports

There really aren't many questions about Derek Carr, who signed a massive contract extension this offseason and is clearly the Raiders' guy now and for the long term. It's really just sample size that keeps the Raiders from moving up this list and into the realm of the more established veterans and Super Bowl champions above. Carr has played in just three seasons, improved in each one and established himself in 2016 as a tough fourth-quarter winner. But he has never played in a playoff game or reached 4,000 yards in a season (though he came just 63 yards short last season and missed the final game with a broken leg). All of the arrows point up for Carr, who just needs to keep building on what he has already done to move up. EJ Manuel and Connor Cook form the backup group here.

A year ago, it would have been hard to find a team more confident in its quarterback situation than the Panthers. Cam Newton was coming off an MVP season, and backup Derek Anderson had shown an ability to operate the offense (albeit far less dynamically) when needed. But then Newton suffered through a terrible season that featured a career-low 52.9 completion percentage and 14 interceptions to go with just 19 passing touchdowns. He also got banged around so badly that he missed one game with a concussion and had shoulder surgery after the season. So now he's a 28-year-old enigma whose most recent season was lousy and is coming off surgery. The Panthers are confident they can reconfigure their offense to help protect Newton better. And Anderson remains as a fairly reliable backup. But 2016 did a bit of damage to the way Carolina should feel about its quarterback. Newton will have to bounce back to near-2015 levels to move back up this list.

This team is confident Kirk Cousins can perform in spite of the continued absence of a long-term contract, because he has exceeded 4,000 yards in each of the previous two seasons while in that exact situation. But Washington (A) has no idea whether it will have Cousins for more than one more year, (B) lost its top two receivers to free agency, and (C) former offensive coordinator Sean McVay, with whom Cousins had an excellent rapport, left to go coach the Rams. The situation around Cousins is the reason for Washington to question its confidence in its quarterback situation. The team feels better about Colt McCoy than most people do, but if Cousins gets hurt this season or signs elsewhere next March, this could fall apart quickly.

You know exactly what you've got

The Bengals know exactly what they have in Andy Dalton. And in 2015, when the group around him was healthy for almost the whole season, they saw him be extremely productive. But the health of that group is key to getting the most out of Dalton -- a capable NFL passer who hasn't really shown the ability to elevate those around him the way some others higher on this list have. The Bengals' ranking also gets a bit of a boost from the backup AJ McCarron, a player whose value they deemed high enough to turn away trade offers for him even though he only has one year left on his contract.

Alex Smith is another quarterback who offers a high floor but not much in the way of ceiling. He can run the offense the way coach Andy Reid wants it run, and he protects the ball as well as any quarterback this side of Foxborough. But we're at the point in Smith's career where it's fair to wonder if he'll ever have the ability to elevate a team beyond first- or second-round-of-the-playoffs type of success. The raw ability of rookie first-round pick Patrick Mahomes II offers some excitement for the future, but he has a lot of developing to do before he becomes "the man."

Volatile situations

To be clear: The Cowboys are in love with Dak Prescott, totally convinced he's their guy for the future and of the belief he will build on his historically impressive rookie season in Year 2 and beyond. There's nothing not to like about Prescott. But many who are reading (I know from experience) will think this is too low for the Cowboys. My answer is simple: It was only one season. As brilliant a year as Prescott had, you have to give me more than one before we can talk high-level confidence. And this is a confidence ranking, not a who-had-the-best-2016 ranking. Prescott will be without star running back Ezekiel Elliott for six games, which will be a major test for the Cowboys' young signal-caller. And undrafted rookie Cooper Rush as the backup is a total unknown, though Dallas brought back Kellen Moore after he was released over the weekend. This is another situation that appears to be on the rise, but it'd be crazy to think there's no chance it could break the other way.

Carson Palmer had a down 2016 season after a career year in 2015. Matt Kartozian/USA TODAY Sports

Talk about a situation that could break either way. Carson Palmer was a reasonable runner-up candidate to Cam Newton in the 2015 MVP race, but last year he saw his Total QBR drop from 79.3 to 60.4. Palmer turns 38 in December and has a long history of physical ailments, and it's fair to wonder how much longer he can hold up. If he can't make it through the season, an Arizona team that has declined to select his potential replacement in either of the past two drafts would turn to Blaine Gabbert or Drew Stanton. Palmer is likely done after this year, and he has the talent and the coaching staff to deliver a big finish. But if he doesn't have one more great year left in him, the Cardinals' season could go right off a cliff.

Jameis Winston was the star of "Hard Knocks" and is a revered figure in the Buccaneers' building at age 23. He was a big-time winner as a college player, and Tampa Bay's 9-7 record in his sophomore season was one of the league's bigger surprises. Winston is another "arrow up" guy, and the team has complete confidence that he's their guy for the long term. But he has also thrown 33 interceptions in just two NFL seasons, and he has to get his turnover issues under control if the Bucs' confidence in their quarterback situation is to elevate. Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick could be a steadying presence if something were to happen to Winston, but Fitzpatrick's track record indicates he wouldn't help much with the interception problem.

Starter Andrew Luck hasn't practiced with his team since December, is coming off offseason shoulder surgery and could miss the first couple of games of the season. The good news is that the team expects a full recovery and a return to full strength for Luck at some point. The bad news is that the Colts haven't been able to protect him and that the backups are Scott Tolzien -- the Week 1 starter -- and just-acquired Jacoby Brissett. Even if Luck is back in Week 3, another injury would spell doom for the Colts. And they can't be sure that's avoidable.

Everything good I wrote about Winston can apply to Marcus Mariota. He comes with a flaw as well, and in his case, it's that he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full 16 games in either of his NFL seasons. That's a small sample size, and we might someday look back on it as a blip on the road to a brilliant, durable career. But until Mariota proves able to hold up physically for a whole season, it chips away at the confidence you can have in his ability to do so. Matt Cassel fits the mold of a veteran backup who can probably keep from steering the whole thing into a ditch, but the Titans don't necessarily want to find out.

Leaning on the group around them

Sam Bradford was just what the Vikings hoped he would be last season and maybe even more. He set an NFL single-season record for completion percentage while managing to stay healthy enough to play 15 games (all but the first, for which he was the backup because he had just gotten there) behind one of the worst pass-protecting offensive lines in recent memory. Bradford averaged only 7.02 yards per attempt, which helps explain that 71.6 completion percentage, but that 7.02 was also a career high for Bradford. They know what he is. They know they have to protect him better or they can't win. They have no idea how healthy Teddy Bridgewater will be by the end of the season or whether they'll keep one, both or neither of them in 2018 and beyond. Lot of question marks here, and that's not even mentioning Case Keenum, who joined the team on a one-year deal in March.

Carson Wentz has a chance to pull this ranking up as the season goes along, especially if the early reports of his more efficient throwing motion turn out to be legit. If Alshon Jeffery can stay on the field, Wentz has a No. 1 wide receiver, and the Eagles like their offensive line a lot. However, Wentz has to look more like he did the first three games of 2016 than he did in the last 13 in order to justify the optimism Eagles coaches, players and fans have about him. If he does, this ranking moves up quickly. Nick Foles is the backup, and he has experience and knows the offense.

It appears Joe Flacco is healed from his back issue in time to start Week 1, which is great, because Ryan Mallett is not an acceptable fallback, and we've heard plenty about where the Ravens stand on signing Colin Kaepernick. Flacco is what he is at this point in his career, and that incredible Super Bowl run that made him so very rich is now five seasons ago. The Ravens are a team that has to win in spite of its offense.

Former fourth-round pick Tom Savage (3) beat out rookie first-rounder Deshaun Watson in camp. Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire

Tom Savage has the confidence of the coaching staff and of top wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Savage has had some issues staying healthy, though, and with first-round pick and national college champion Deshaun Watson waiting in the wings, this situation is going to be tricky for Houston to navigate. Add in coach Bill O'Brien's propensity to switch quarterbacks on a hair-trigger whim and you have a situation that could have fallen into the "volatile" category if the players involved ranked with those in that tier in terms of ability.

How long can the defense carry this team? We may be about to find out. Trevor Siemian won the job this summer after 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch failed to take it from him. Lynch is now hurt, and Brock Osweiler is back to try to rebuild his career while backing up Siemian. The Broncos like Siemian (and Osweiler) more than many on the outside do, but there's a worthwhile question to be asked about how much confidence they should have in this arrangement for the long term. For the short term, Siemian will be asked to keep things under control and not turn the ball over while they run it and keep the other team from scoring. He handled that assignment just fine last season.

Ryan Tannehill blew out his knee and Jay Cutler came out of retirement to run Adam Gase's offense. Can the duo recapture the magic of the 2015 Bears' offense? Was it really all that magical? Cutler's surprise unretirement could be one of the blindside stories of the season if he and Gase can put points on the board. More likely, the Dolphins will try to do what they can to minimize turnovers with a quarterback who has always seemed prone to them, while running the ball with Jay Ajayi and hoping the defense holds up on the back end.

Maybe more confidence than you think?

Offensive coaches don't come a lot more confident than Kyle Shanahan. He built the Falcons' offense into a historic scoring machine and helped get it to the brink of a Super Bowl title. If he says Brian Hoyer can run his offense, then you have to believe Brian Hoyer can run his offense. The problems are that Hoyer has a history of getting hurt and that the Niners are personnel-deficient in too many other areas of their team to expect much in the terms of first-year magic from Shanahan. Rookie C.J. Beathard is an unknown, and many people think this is the team waiting out the free agency of Kirk Cousins, whose first NFL coordinator was Shanahan.

Should they be confident in Mike Glennon as the starter? Maybe not, but they liked him enough to sign him to an eight-figure salary. Can they know yet about No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky? Of course not. It's too soon. But Trubisky showed enough this summer to offer hope, and while the 2017 Bears aren't expected to do much, they have earned the right to feel more confident about their quarterback situation than they did six months ago.

Tyrod Taylor is, I continue to insist, better than you think he is. But he needs a good group around him in order to succeed, and the Bills have spent the offseason losing good players from their offense. No more Sammy Watkins and no Anquan Boldin (we hardly knew ye!) means rookie Zay Jones has to carry a lot of the load for Taylor, and that checkdowns to LeSean McCoy become a huge part of the offensive game plan. Taylor's revised contract, which allows Buffalo to get out of it after this year, doesn't scream confidence. Rookie Nathan Peterman is unproven, and Joe Webb was just brought in to be the No. 3. Not a great situation here.

Jared Goff started seven games last season, completing only 54.6 percent of his passes. Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports

Jared Goff was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft. It's just that the current Rams coaching staff wasn't there when the team drafted him, so there's no way to know yet how they'll all click. Rams coaches seem more impressed with Goff than maybe they expected to be, and they have reason to believe they've constructed a decent group around him, trading for Sammy Watkins and signing a couple of veteran offensive linemen. Goff's development under new coach Sean McVay and his staff is a story to watch, especially since McVay and Kirk Cousins had a good thing together in Washington too. Former third-round pick Sean Mannion is the backup.

In early May, how many of you had second-round pick DeShone Kizer starting the Browns' opener? Liars. Put your hands down. A couple of talent evaluators told me this summer that Kizer was the young QB to watch, since he played in a pro-style offense at Notre Dame and was making NFL throws the others weren't being asked to make in college. We'll see. The Browns like their offensive line and their run game and will give Kizer a long leash. It's worth wondering who he's going to throw it to, but the coaching staff believes in him. Cody Kessler is the backup, and they used him a few times last season without it being a complete disaster.

No earthly idea

Blake Bortles just about lost his job to Chad Henne a couple of weeks ago, then miraculously got it back before the fourth preseason game. But, come on. It's clear this new regime in Jacksonville has no confidence in Bortles and that he'll have to play better than he ever has in order to stay around in 2018. He also carries a $19 million option for 2018 that's guaranteed only against injury, so if they decide once and for all he's not their guy for the long haul, they have to make sure he doesn't get hurt, or they're on the hook for that money. Expect the Jags to be in the QB market next year.

A team that absolutely needs to get a look at 2016 second-rounder Christian Hackenberg to see what it has in him is instead starting veteran Josh McCown in Week 1. Bryce Petty doesn't seem to be a part of the picture in the short term or long. We'll see Hackenberg at some point, surely, but the fact that he couldn't beat out McCown's lackluster summer says a lot about where this team is at quarterback right now. Which is basically nowhere.