Bill Keegan didn’t think it could get any worse.

He sells recycled paper, and despaired in May when the price dropped to zero.

He could hardly believe it when he saw the listed industry price this past week — “negative $5 per ton.”

Keegan actually had to pay someone to take the paper that his recycling company, Shakopee-based Dem-Con, had painstakingly collected and processed.

“That’s because of China,” said Keegan, who is president of Dem-Con. “How do we survive?”

China has almost entirely stopped buying recycled material, which is rattling recycling bins halfway around the world in Minnesota. Industry experts say the unsold material is backing up, recyclers are losing money, and consumers are facing higher costs and new recycling rules.

Indeed, some officials are questioning the future of recycling. According to the New York Times, cities across the country are dumping recyclables into landfills because they can’t sell them.

Cities in Minnesota havn’t done that — yet.

“We are in crisis mode,” said Julie Ketchum, director of government affairs for Waste Management, the largest recycler in Minnesota.

HOW DID WE BECOME SO RELIANT ON CHINA?

Traditionally, America’s recycled material has been considered dirty — with up to 30 percent contamination by non-recyclable materials. China was willing to buy it and clean it up with a supply of low-wage workers, according to Walker Smith, spokesman for the state Pollution Control Agency.

But not anymore. “With improving economic conditions, they can’t find inexpensive labor,” said Smith.

Then American recyclers introduced single-stream recycling, which allows consumers to put all recyclables into one bin.

Convenient? Yes. But it is also a messy way to recycle.

In the bins, leftover Coke dribbles onto paper, and pizza boxes smear grease onto plastic bottles. The contamination got worse.

ADDRESSING CHINA’S CHANGING STANDARDS

China required cleaner material starting in 2013, according to Keegan, chair of the Minnesota chapter of the National Waste and Recycling Association.

“At that time, lots of people in the industry said, ‘This will be the end of recycling,’ ” said Keegan.

Since then, China has steadily ratcheted up its standards.

On Jan. 1, it banned imports of many types of paper and plastic. In March, it lowered the allowable contamination in paper to 0.5 percent — a level considered unreachable by some experts.

TRUMP’S TARIFFS AND CHINA’S RETALIATION

Then came President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, starting in June. When China retaliated with its own tariffs on U.S. soybeans, it cut back on recyclables at the same time.

“Now we are mixed up in this trade war. We are completely shut off,” said Lynn Hoffman, co-president of the nonprofit Eureka Recycling.

Faced with mounting piles of unsellable materials, some cities are refusing to pay the “negative price” of disposal. The New York Times reports that cities in Oregon, Washington and Idaho have granted waivers to recyclers that allow them to dump material collected as “recyclable.”

Other cities have told residents that it’s better to toss low-value recyclables such as glass into garbage bins.

Minnesota recyclers hate that idea. But if a business can’t make money selling something, said Dem-Con’s Keegan, the only way to survive is with higher fees and subsidies.

EXPECT TO PAY MORE

For household consumers, Keegan estimated the impact might be “maybe $8 or $10 more a month.”

Several recyclers said that more government subsidies seem inevitable, as they try to modernize and streamline their systems.

The crisis in markets is bringing new emphasis on other survival tactics. Consumers are already seeing more requests — and demands — to keep the recycling system healthy.

CLEANING YOUR TRASH

Recyclers want to put an end to “wish-cycling,” the habit of throwing anything into the bins in the hope it can be recycled.

“Do not put your bowling ball in. Do not put in your syringes or your diapers,” said Wayne Gjerde, who studies recycling markets for the state PCA.

Consumers should wash out plastic and glass to make sure no food or any organic matter ends up in recycling bins.

A bit of food in a pile of paper is not just an inconvenience, said Waste Management’s Ketchum. “It can destroy the value of a whole load,” she said.

Recyclers are demanding that consumer keep plastic bags out of recycling bins. Officials report that they often waste more than an hour a day, shutting down equipment to untangle plastic bags from machinery. Strings of Christmas lights are just as bad.

INDUSTRY SAYS RECYCLING MUST BE PROTECTED

The current crisis is forcing recyclers to address an existential question: If no one wants the glass, paper and plastic, why should anyone bother recycling?

Because habits of recycling should not be interrupted, said Mike Moroz, CEO of Walter’s Recycling and Refuse in Blaine.

If people stop recycling when the market is weak, it would be difficult to get them to start again when the markets bounce back, he said.

The PCA’s Gjerde said that developing American markets for recyclables would help reduce the dependence on China. On July 3, the agency announced a new effort to increase the number of Minnesota businesses using recyclable materials.

Without those businesses, said Dem-Con’s Keegan, recycling is a waste of time.

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Relocated Isle Royale wolves form groups, reduce moose herd “With recycling, you do not cash the check until you have a new product,” said Keegan. “It all breaks down if there is no viable end market.”

Consumers and local governments should bear the increased costs, say officials, because of the non-economic benefits.

“It takes less energy and greenhouse gases to recycle than it does to harvest raw material or mine metal ore. We are not degrading the land,” said Waste Management’s Ketchum.

“That is why we recycle.”