When looking for the bottom of the market, most people usually end up getting it wrong, but getting it wrong in one direction is usually much better than getting it wrong the other way. What I mean is, predicting the bottom and then having the market keep falling is generally worse than catching the rebound a little late.

Because of this, you almost always want to wait for positive signs before buying back into a market. This is also why “buying the dip” is bad advice because it assumes the dip is the bottom, but unless you are basing that on some sort of technical or fundamental analysis, you are just randomly buying.

Personally, I use fundamental analysis more than technical analysis, but they both generally give you the same picture. It just depends on which one you are more comfortable with and which fits your style more. Personally, I enjoy researching, reading and searching for news, and reading countless tweets and comments. Because of this I do more fundamental analysis. If you are more comfortable looking at charts and doing that sort of thing, then technical analysis is better for you. However, you can do both, but generally you will end up preferring one over the other for the bulk of your analysis.

So what signs should you look for that can make the market start to to recover? For me it’s all about the new money coming into the crypto markets and where is it going to come from. That’s pretty much all I am the lookout for at this point. I want to see stories about new money coming into the market start to pop up here and there, then I want to confirm it by reading tweets and articles from people in the market that are starting to share the same sentiment.

However, this can be difficult, because we have to determine the difference between things that will bring money in and things that seem like they will, but won’t. For example, the recent story about the Robinhood app signing up a million users. That sounds great, but how many of those users are new to crypto and looking to put new money in? Probably not a lot, and especially not when the market is tanking. So my feeling is that most of those people are already crypto investors and they could buy more if they wanted to anyway with their Coinbase or other account. So overall, that won’t bring in much money in the short term, and definitely not enough to bring the markets up.

In my personal opinion, I don’t believe retail or new casual investors can cause this market to rebound. Only a rising market and FOMO attracts new investors like that, and the market simply isn’t doing that now. Also, I don’t believe any type of news about new products or new partnerships can reverse this market crash. So don’t look to that as a sign of the market correcting.







What I am looking for instead is reasons for big investors or institutional investors to get into the market. The problem here is that due to rampant manipulation, including the Tether situation, the SEC warned about starting Bitcoin ETF funds, and many of those funds are now on hold or have even been canceled. But even with that being said this is the main thing I am on the lookout for. When Wall Street starts getting comfortable again about jumping into crypto, that will be a sign that tells me the market is going to start turning positive.

Of course, the next question is when will this happen. Unfortunately, I believe it may take some time and we will probably see lower prices until then. The market may rebound here and there, but overall we are still in a downtrend trend. Also, the only way to bring the market up is new money, and that new money will require a lot of the fraudulent activity in crypto to get washed out. So that will take some time, and it will bring lower prices as well.

So what is my TL/DR market analysis. I think BTC has a very good chance of going lower, possibly $5K but $7500 is very possible. Also, I believe the Tether situation either has to blow up or they have to get their act together and prove they are legit before the market will have another huge rally. So overall, this may take some time. So my overall strategy is just to sit and watch right now. Do not add any fiat at this point, just as I suggest several weeks ago.