"Most arrestingly in this set of results, I found the Tories on course to take back Rochester and Strood," said Lord Ashcroft as he released the poll. "There was a hint that such a result might be possible when I polled the seat before the by-election last November that gave Ukip their second elected MP. Uncannily, 36 per cent of voters in the constituency said at that time that they would probably vote Conservative at the general election, exactly the proportion that said the same in my new poll, while less than three quarters of Ukip by-election voters said they expected to stay with the party.