The early-to-mid summer forecast looks like what most Michiganders say they like. If the forecast turns out, it could be a perfect summer.

In my almost 30 years here in Michigan, I’d estimate the majority of Michiganders like a slightly warmer-than-average summer. Michiganders also seem to like enough rain to keep things green, but not enough to drown out summer fun.

The Climate Prediction Center, NOAA’s seasonal forecasting arm, has painted a picture of niceness across our state.

Stephen Baxter, meteorologist and long-range forecaster at NOAA, says Michigan’s summer has a slightly higher-than-normal chance of being warmer than a “typical Michigan summer.” The benchmark for summer temperatures is the average temperature from 1981 to 2010.

Forecasters at NOAA used three factors to produce the May, June and July forecast recently.

Baxter says long-range forecasts always have to start with the climate trend over the past 15 years. The trend is that summer temperatures have been warming. Forecasters then start with a summer forecast warmer than the 30-year average.

How much do they weight toward the long-term warming?

Long-term temperature trend for May, June and July shows the U.S. has been warming in early summer and mid-summer.

Summers recently have been four-tenths to six-tenths of a degree warmer than a few decades ago. That might not sound like much additional warmth. But it is significant when we are talking about average temperature of 90 days.

Baxter says there are two atmospheric factors that lean toward slightly cooler weather. Historical ocean temperature analysis told NOAA the temperatures will be slightly cooler than the long-term warming trend above.

Another factor that could keep Michigan out of prolonged, oppressive heat is the current wet soil profile. Baxter says there is a strong connection between early summer wet soils and early season cooler temperatures.

So on temperatures, here is the NOAA temperature forecast for May, June and July.

Temperature forecast for May, June and July, 2020.

I like another viewpoint of the temperature forecast for May to July. It forecasts how many degrees from normal.

Forecast map above shows the most likely amount of deviation from average (in degrees F)

Baxter admits the resolution of this map is odd. The map shows a temperature forecast deviation from normal of four-tenths to six-tenths of a degree. That’s a slightly warm, real nice summer in Michigan.

We also don’t like things so dry all plants are brown. It must be after six months of drab colors and snow that we want to stare at something green and growing. That’s where the precipitation forecast could also come in perfect.

Precipitation anomaly forecast for May, June and July 2020

The precipitation forecast has Michigan getting more precipitation than normal for May, June and July, but not excessive. The official forecast calls for no more than an inch above normal. If that comes true, it’s a great amount of rain for us gardeners and green lovers. I will caution that Michigan’s summer precipitation is erratic. NOAA may try to issue a precipitation forecast, but actual thunderstorms can really pour the rain to certain locations. I take this forecast to mean we won’t be in an overall, widespread flooding pattern.

If we can get some rains on the garden, it really saves time. And for some reason, Mother Nature’s watering does a much better job than I do at watering.