By ROBERT RIZZUTO and SHIRA SCHOENBERG

Candidate Support by region compared to the Sept. 6-13 poll

Western Massachusetts

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SPRINGFIELD - A new poll shows that while Democrat Elizabeth Warren has maintained a steady margin of support over Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race, the number of people who see her in an unfavorable light is on the rise.

The latest survey conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican/MassLive.com, concluded that Warren is leading Brown, 50 percent to 45 percent, with the junior senator jumping one percentage point compared to the Sept. 6-13 poll.

In terms of overall favorability, both candidates saw their positive ratings drop slightly and their negative ratings climb. Warren's favorable/unfavorable rating is now 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, compared to 53 percent to 33 percent just three weeks ago.

Brown's favorable/unfavorable rating is currently 52 percent to 36 percent, compared to 54 percent to 32 percent in the previous Western New England University poll.

Anthony Cignoli, a political strategist who consults Democrats and Republicans but is uninvolved in this race, said the most significant change in the aforementioned numbers is Warren's unfavorability rating, which grew from 33 percent to 41 percent in just three weeks.

"In my profession, you always look at the favorability numbers first and foremost," he said. "The horserace numbers will shift and you expect some movement in favorability, but when you see a change like this, it will definitely grab the attention of the campaigns."

Cignoli said that the increase in the number of people seeing Warren in a negative light could be attributed to a number of factors, but the most likely is the barrage of ads voters are seeing from the Brown campaign calling Warren's character into question.

"In the first debate, you saw Brown lead on her Native American ancestry and then follow up with ads showing what appeared to be regular people with accents from Boston to the Berkshires saying that this issue is a problem for them," Cignoli said, referring to the Brown campaign's ads targeting Warren's claims of Native American ancestry. "A strategy in politics is to tear down the credibility of an opponent to create doubt. And when in doubt, voters tend to vote against that candidate."

Tim Vercellotti, a professor of political science and director of the Western New England University Polling Institute, also said that while Warren is still hanging on to the lead in the race, "her unfavorability is pretty striking."

"But when you look at the gender split, she is compensating for that with her popularity among women voters," he said.

In the current poll, Warren leads Brown 61 percent to 35 percent among women, a 26-point margin. Brown leads Warren 56 percent to 38 percent among men, an 18-point margin.

Women in Massachusetts typically favor Democrats. Women's issues – including abortion and legislation relating to equal pay – have come up frequently both in the Massachusetts Senate race and in the national political arena.

While Brown has worked to promote a pro-woman image in TV ads and statements, Warren's charge that Brown is part of the national Republican Party and its so-called "war against women" may be resonating with some voters.

Brown's job approval rating remained steady at 55 percent, although the number of women who give him that thumbs up dropped eight points to 45 percent compared to three weeks ago.

Brown, who has focused his campaign on cultivating a bipartisan image, has held a strong lead among independent voters throughout the campaign. The Sept. 6-13 poll found Brown leading Warren among independents, 57 percent to 35 percent. In the current poll, Brown has expanded his lead among independent likely voters to 62 percent to 35 percent.

Because Democrats outnumber Republicans three to one in Massachusetts, Brown needs a strong showing among independents to win the race. Currently, Warren’s Democratic base of support is strong enough to offset Brown’s lead among independents. But Warren is losing some Democrats, with 11 percent saying they plan to vote for Brown.

Geographically, Warren has continually held a

strong lead in Western Massachusetts

, a traditional Democratic stronghold. The latest poll finds the same trend, with Warren leading 58 percent to 41 percent in Western Massachusetts. Brown’s strength is in Central Massachusetts, where he is ahead 60 percent to 36 percent.

In the North and South shores, which are grouped together in the poll, Warren is leading Brown 50 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. Warren's lead throughout Boston and its suburbs is greater, 50 percent to 42 percent.

When asked what issue is the most important to them in determining who to vote for, 28 percent of likely voters said the economy, unemployment, jobs and/or the stock market. Of those voters, 41 percent were Brown supporters compared to 19 percent who were Warren supporters.

The second most popular answer was "morals, ethics, personal integrity of the candidate," with 12 percent of those surveyed saying that is the most important issue to them. Of those likely voters, 18 percent were Brown supporters compared to 8 percent who were Warren supporters.

Vercellotti noted that on the issue of character, which Brown has equated with questions over whether Warren is actually of Native American ancestry or if she used that designation to gain an advantage in her career, it is difficult to know what drives the numbers.

"You have an arrow of causality here," Vercellotti said. "Are supporters reacting to the messages of the campaign, or is the campaign targeting its message based on data?"

Warren has denied using her ancestry for an advantage, and the people who hired her at U.S. universities have released statements saying they were either unaware of her ancestry or it played no part in her hiring.

And while only six percent of the likely voters surveyed said that consideration of which political party may control the U.S. Senate was an important factor in their decision, 48 percent said they would prefer a Democratic controlled Senate. Republican control was the choice of 24 percent of the likely voters, and 22 percent said that it makes no difference to them.

Much of this simply reflects the party affiliation of the survey’s respondents, and of the state's electorate. Among likely voters from both parties, 82 percent to 83 percent of survey respondents wanted their party to control the Senate, and independents were split, with a slight Democratic tilt.

Katherine Devlin, 65, a retired nurse and independent voter from Springfield, is supporting Brown but has no preference regarding which party controls the Senate.

Devlin chose Brown because she does not respect Warren. "She's not a woman of her word," Devlin said, noting the controversy over whether Warren used her Native American heritage to advance her career. Devlin said party does not matter to her. "I just want somebody that's going to take care of the American people."



The poll found that party affiliation has, over time, become more important to voters in making their decisions about the Senate race.

Ann Howe, 66, a small business owner from Harwich, is among those Democrats for whom Senate control is a major factor.

Howe said she likes Warren because of her focus on consumer interests and her legal skills. But another big factor is Warren’s party. “It’s totally important that the Democrats control (the Senate) because of their focus on the consumer instead of the large corporate entities,” Howe said.

Cignoli said that while the new poll shows that the Warren campaign has to be constantly aware of her favorability, it also shows that she is on a roll, in terms of edging Brown overall.

"If she continues to keep this lead over Brown, despite her unfavorability numbers having gone up, she is on a path to victory," Cignoli said. "If three weeks from now she has the same results as over the three weeks since the last WNE poll, Brown will have little time to move that distance before the election."

The poll, conducted from Sept. 28-Oct. 4, has a 4.7 percent margin of error for the sample of 440 likely voters and a 4.3 percent margin of error among 516 registered voters.

Brown and Warren have squared off in two televised debates and have two more to go before election day. The next takes place on Wednesday, Oct. 10 at Symphony Hall in Springfield and can be seen on MassLive.com and WSHM CBS-3 Springfield at 7 p.m.