New projections released Sunday from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington paint a less frightening picture for Alabama as the state continues to face the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last week the IHME model showed Alabama could see the fourth highest total deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the highest death rate in the whole country. In the new projections, Alabama would be 16th in total deaths. The state would fall from first to 21st in deaths per capita.

The new projections show Alabama could still face anywhere from 378 to 1,996 coronavirus deaths by the middle of May, with a mean projection of fewer than 1,000 dead. Compare that with last week’s estimates, which were updated on April 1, and showed a mean projection of more than 5,000 deaths.

The projected death rate in Alabama fell from 11 in 10,000 people last week to a projection of fewer than 2 in 10,000 this week.

The IHME model has been among the more influential projections relied upon in recent White House briefings.

There are few reasons the initial projections for Alabama could have been so high - and for why they’ve now dropped substantially.

For one thing, the initial projections were last updated April 1, before Gov. Kay Ivey instituted a stay-at-home order, something the projections seem to heavily factor in. There was also a rather small sample size for Alabama at the time of the last update.

Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of IHME, said a “massive infusion of new data” went into the updated numbers.

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” he said. “And these projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus.”

Even the new projections aren’t quite on track for Alabama, but not nearly as far off as before. After the update, the projections cover two days that have already happened - April 4th and 5th. They projected Alabama to have had a range of total COVID-19 deaths between 44 and 98 on the 4th and between 50 and 128 on the 5th. Alabama had a total of 31 confirmed deaths by the 5th, and fewer than 41 reported or suspected coronavirus deaths.

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