I don’t think any Miami fan has ever questioned what Head Coach Adam Gase’s favorite play is. For those who are wondering, it’s likely the wide receiver screen. Gase has received tons of criticism for his screen usage, and much of it is deserved. However, Miami’s screens have been much more effective in 2018 than they were in 2017. I’ve clipped and recorded every wide receiver screen that Miami has run in 2017 and 2018. Here’s what I found:

To begin, let’s take a look at the sheer numbers: In all of 2017, Miami ran 29 screen passes, averaging 6.1 yards/play. Through only 9 games in 2018, Miami has matched this number, and is producing an average of 6.72 yards/play. While it may not seem like a significant jump, keep in mind that 91 of the 177 yards in 2017 came from two plays, a 65 yard TD and another 26 yard catch, both produced by Jakeem Grant. In 2018, the two largest gains combine for 61/195 total yards. Negating these two plays, we get an average yards per play of 3.19 in ‘17, and 4.96 in ‘18. Below is a box and whisker plot that illustrates the jump in production among Miami’s screens.

Another way to look at the success of Miami’s screens is by success rate. I defined a “successful” screen as gaining 4+ yards on 1st & 2nd down, or picking up a 1st down on 3rd down. In 2017, the success rate on screens was a putrid 31%, while so far in 2018, 55% of Miami’s screens have been successful.

Perhaps one of the biggest knocks on Miami’s screen game has been their usage on 3rd and long situations. The average yards to go on 3rd downs where screens were deployed by Miami in 2018 is 12.57. To Miami fans, these plays are the equivalent to giving up and settling for a punt/field goal. Since 2017, Miami is 0 for 8 on 3rd & 10+ screens.

Not all screen passes are the same. For example, let’s take a look at the bubble screen. Since 2017, Miami has used 13 bubble screens. Five of the attempts came in 2017, where they averaged 3.8 yards, while 8 attempts have come so far in 2018, but they’re averaging only 1.5 yards. Much of this is due to inaccurate passes and poor blocking. I believe that it’d be best if Gase simply scrubbed these screens entirely, as they are a high-risk, low-reward type of play. On all other screen passes in 2018, Miami is averaging 9.16 yards/play. That’s a tremendous number, and it may even seem inflated from Wilson’s 43 yard TD, but if you removed that play, Miami is still averaging 7.22 yards/play. So let’s do a quick review: Miami is averaging 1.5 yards on bubble screens this year, but 9.16 yards on all other screens. Seems like an obvious change, right?

Below is a table charting the attempts and average gain on screens by position. I included swing passes to WRs from the backfield as screens, since the player was in motion when the ball was snapped, and it was always a wide receiver catching the ball. As evident by the table, Gase has done a much better job diversifying his screens. He has become much less predictable. Another thing that points to this diversification has been which side Gase runs screens to. In 2017, 21 out of the 29 screens were run to the left side of the field (The Quarterback’s left). In 2018 however, Miami has ran 15 screens to the left side of the field, compared to 14 to the right. Gase has done significantly better this year mixing up his screen calls.

2017 2018 Avg Yards/Position Att Avg % Avg Yards/Position Att Avg % Slot 2 11.00 7% Slot 3 6.00 10% Outside 21 6.29 72% Outside 17 9.35 59% Outside Slot 0 – 0% Outside Slot 1 5.00 3% Inside Slot 5 3.60 17% Inside Slot 6 3.17 21% Backfield 1 5.00 3% Backfield 2 -3.00 7%

The one area where Gase has done the opposite of diversification is in regards to whether he runs screens to the wide side or short side of the field. In 2017, 22 screens were ran to the wide side of the field, compared to 5 being ran towards the short side. In 2018, 25 screens were ran to the wide side, compared to only 1 being ran towards the short side. But this is a good thing. Screen passes typically should be ran to the wide side of the field. It gives the receivers more room to work with, and opens up the field for bigger plays. Screen passes towards the short side of the field in 2017 only had a 20% success rate.

Miami has attempted at least 2 WR screens in every game this year, except against Detroit, where we attempted zero. We attempted a season-high SEVEN WR screens against the Bears. We ran FIVE in the 4th quarter alone that game. — Yung Mayo (@YungMayoYT) November 10, 2018

The last thing I’ll go over is the distribution of the screen targets. As evident by the pie charts below, Gase likes to focus on one particular receiver to catch most of his screens. In 2017 it was Landry, nabbing 55% of screens, while this year it has been Wilson, getting 45% of screens. The biggest problem is that Gase is giving these screens to the wrong players. Since 2017, Jakeem Grant is averaging 15.7 yards/catch on screens. That’s more than 3x every other receiver’s average. Let’s take a look at the yardage of all of Grant’s screens since 2017: 65, 26, 17, 13, 13, 10, 8, 5, 2, -2. These numbers result in an absurd 80% success rate, which is leaps and bounds higher than the next closest receiver. With Wilson done for the year, Gase must turn to Grant and give him the opportunities he deserves.

Overall, it’s pretty clear that Miami’s screen game in 2018 is actually pretty good, and much better than it was in 2017. If Gase can find a way to either fix our bubble screens or eliminate them entirely, as well as feed Grant more often, I think we’ll see our screen numbers improve even more. Below is the links to the two videos which include every Miami screen in 2017 & 2018.