When Michael Clarke and Alastair Cook walk out to the middle of SSE SWALEC Stadium at 10.30am on Wednesday morning for the first toss of the 2015 Ashes series, recent history suggests the home side will have first use of the Cardiff pitch.

While the chances of successfully predicting the outcome of a coin toss are 50-50, that hasn’t been the case when Australia have ventured to the Mother Country since their last Ashes series victory away in 2001.

In fact, Australia’s Test captains have defied the laws of probability in the last decade to lose 10 out of the past 15 tosses in three unsuccessful Ashes campaigns in the British Isles.

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It’s an important, albeit uncontrollable, contest Clarke will want to master considering that the team winning the toss has lost only twice during that period.

At Edgbaston in 2005, Australia captain Ricky Ponting bravely opted to bowl in the second Test without his premier fast bowler Glenn McGrath, who rolled his ankle on a stray cricket ball on the morning of the first day.

The move backfired as England posted 407 at five runs per over on the opening day as Australia failed to make inroads into a reinvigorated batting line-up led by opening batsman Marcus Trescothick and enigmatic allrounder Andrew Flintoff.

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Four years later, Andrew Strauss elected to bat in the fourth Test at Headingley but was ambushed by a recalled Stuart Clark and a five-wicket haul from Victorian fast bowler Peter Siddle to see England rolled for 102 inside 34 overs.

While Strauss’s decision to bat followed the status quo, Ponting’s decision to send the opposition in is the only time in the past three Ashes series in the United Kingdom that a captain has won the toss and elected to bowl.

As recent Ashes history indicates, opting to bat is not only the most successful but the safest option to a captain when it’s his time to decide who does what first.

But with rain forecast for the lead-in and opening day of the 2015 Ashes series, both Clarke and Cook might consider bucking the trend by electing to take the new ball on the first morning.

So if the two captains are unsure of what to do if the coin falls favourably, perhaps former England captain Colin Cowdrey’s simple philosophy can help.

“Nine times out of 10 you should automatically bat first. The other time you should think about fielding, but then bat anyway.”

Toss and results of Ashes series in the UK in past 10 years

2005

1st Test - Lord's | Toss: Australia - bat | Result: Australia by 239 runs

2nd Test - Edgbaston | Toss: Australia - bowl | Result: England by three runs

3rd Test - Old Trafford | Toss: England - bat | Result: Draw

4th Test - Trent Bridge | Toss: England - bat | Result: England by three wickets

5th Test - The Oval | Toss: England - bat | Result: Draw

2009

1st Test - Sophia Gardens | Toss: England - bat | Result: Draw

2nd Test - Lord's | Toss: England - bat | Result: England by 115 runs

3rd Test - Edgbaston | Toss: England - bat | Result: Draw

4th Test - Headingley | Toss: England - bat | Result: Australia by an innings and 80 runs

5th Test - The Oval | Toss: England - bat | Result: England by 197 runs

2013

1st Test - Trent Bridge | Toss: England - bat | Result: England by 14 runs

2nd Test - Lord's | Toss: England - bat | Result: England by 347 runs

3rd Test - Old Trafford | Toss: Australia - bat | Result: Draw

4th Test - Chester-le-Street | Toss: England - bat | Result: England by 74 runs

5th Test - The Oval | Toss: Australia - bat | Result: Draw