Ontario Election 2018: Winnable Ridings via Strategic Voting

The PC Party is projected to win Thursday's election. However, with strategic voting, it's still possible to stop this from happening.

By Ryan McGreal

I downloaded the latest dataset from tooclosetocall.ca and added some flags to the rows to indicate which ridings are winnable through strategic voting.

How to read this table:

Each row is an Ontario riding. The four columns after the riding name are the riding-level support for each party. The next column, "NDP Lead", indicates whether the NDP is leading (1) or not (0). The "PC Lead" column indicates whether the PC Party is leading. the "NDP 2nd" column indicates whether the NDP is in second place.

The last column, "Winnable", indicates either that the NDP is leading or that the combined NDP + Liberal + Green support is higher than the PC support.

If you are considering voting strategically, look up your riding. If the PC Lead is 1 and the Winnable column is 1, this is a riding where strategic voting makes sense. Check which party is in second place and consider casting your vote for that party's candidate as the best option to defeat the PC candidate.

Examples:

Bay of Quinte: the PC candidate is in the lead with 44.8% support. The NDP candidate has 32.6% and the Liberal candidate has 17.2%. Liberal- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting NDP.

Don Valley West: the PC candidate is in the lead with 40.3% support. The Liberal candidate has 32.6% and the NDP candidate has 23.4%. NDP- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting Liberal.

Last Updated June 6, 2018.