CLEVELAND, Ohio – A new poll conducted by three universities of registered voters in Ohio shows a dead heat for the November presidential election between Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden.

Opinion on Trump has soured somewhat in the state, leading Biden to his first lead over Trump in the poll, albeit by less than 1 percentage point. Through the second month of the coronavirus pandemic, Trump’s favorability rating dipped, likely caused by voters’ disapproval of the president’s handling of the crisis.

“Early on, many thought Ohio wouldn’t be in play,” said Robert Alexander, founding director of Ohio Northern University’s Institute for Civics and Public Policy. “Biden running dead even with Trump in the Buckeye state counters this narrative.”

Baldwin Wallace University’s Community Research Institute, in partnership with Ohio Northern and Oakland (Michigan) universities, polled 797 registered Ohio voters last week from Monday through Saturday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. The scientific poll was conducted online with respondents randomly chosen from a pool of volunteers provided by Qualtrics, a research firm. The survey included quotas for age, education and gender.

But the news wasn’t all great for Biden, who Ohio voters still view unfavorably. The dissatisfaction with the former vice president mirrors opinion from the 2016 election, when both Trump and Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were two of the most unpopular presidential candidates in a single election.

Trump vs. Biden

President Donald Trump, and Joe Biden are in a near dead heat for the presidential vote in Ohio, the polling found.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Biden bested Trump with voters for the 2020 election by an incredibly slim margin, with Biden leading 44.9% to Trump’s 44.2%. While down from previous polling, Trump had a slightly firmer base of support, with 32.2% saying they would “definitely” vote for him compared with 31.1% who said they would definitely support Biden.

The close race in the poll appears to be a function of Trump losing support rather than Biden gaining it. In the March Great Lakes Poll, Trump led Biden 47% to 43%.

That’s backed up by the president’s slightly worse approval rating than last month. In the latest poll, 49.4% approved of Trump’s job performance while 48.7% disapproved.

In the Great Lakes Poll from March, 51% of registered voters Ohio said they approved of Trump’s job performance while 46.1% said they disapproved.

That dip is likely being driven by Ohio voters’ souring opinion of Trump’s coronavirus response. A healthy 58.1% of Ohio voters approved of Trump’s dealing with coronavirus in March. That number has now dropped to 50.3% who approve in April.

Unpopular candidates

Ohio voters once again viewed both Trump and Biden unfavorably, with Trump slightly more unpopular than Biden.

Trump held a net-unfavorable rating, with 48.2% of respondents viewing the president unfavorably to 43.1% with a positive opinion.

Respondents were more split on Biden, with 43.5% viewing him unfavorably and 42.1% holding a favorable opinion.

Notably, Trump lost some of his support among respondents who identified as Republicans.

In the March poll, 87.5% of Republican respondents held a favorable view of the president. That metric fell in April, with 80.8% of Republican respondents who said they viewed the president favorably.

Biden did not see a corresponding bump in his favorability among Republicans, however. The latest poll showed 9.7% of Republican respondents holding a favorable view of Biden, down from 12% in March.

Biden’s running mate

At the final Democratic presidential debate in March, Biden vowed to select a woman as his running mate. Democrats in the Great Lakes Poll said they preferred one of his former woman primary foes as the choice.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts had the most support, with 47.1% saying they would like her to join the ticket and 30.8% opposed. Sen. Kamala Harris of California was closely behind with 41% who supported and 28.9% who said they opposed.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota received more tepid support, with 33.9% in favor and 30.3% opposed.

Sens. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico and former Georgia state Rep. Stacey Abrams all had fewer than 20% who supported their inclusion on the ticket. More than 40% opposed each.

Cleveland.com this week will publish a series of stories digging deeper into the findings of this poll. Find those stories, as well as stories from previous BW polls, at this link.

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