By Mark Torregrossa

The Storm Prediction Center has placed part of western Lower Michigan in an enhanced risk for severe weather this evening. A line of severe storms is expected to roll across Lower Michigan this evening and overnight. Given the upper-level dynamics and high moisture content in the atmosphere, this line of storms could be significantly stronger and produce more of a "high-end" severe weather event.

Below I walk you through timing and some details of the possible severe weather.

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Enhanced severe risk outline area

Above is the severe weather forecast issued at 9:30 a.m. by the Storm Prediction Center. The highest risk of severe weather is in the orange area from Traverse City south to Clare, Manistee, Ludington, Muskegon and near Grand Rapids. Surrounding the enhanced risk is a large area of what is called "slight risk" of severe weather. It covers most of Lower Michigan, except the far southeast.

What this layout of severe weather forecasts signifies is an expected severe line of storms developing in Wisconsin this afternoon and moving east-northeast into West Michigan this evening. The line of storms may weaken on the east side of the state.

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Radar forecast at 8 p.m. tonight

Above is the radar forecast for 8 p.m. tonight, using the 2 a.m. run of the North American Model (NAM). There will be two more runs of this model before severe weather would hit. What you see is a line of severe thunderstorms with kinks or waves along the line. This could signify what we call a QLCS- Quasilinear Convective System. At the kinks in the line of storms, vortices can develop and produce small tornadoes. So you can get straight-line wind damage, with small areas of more damage from brief tornadoes.

The line of severe storms is timed to move into western Lower between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. Keep checking back on my MLive posts, as this timing could change by a few hours.

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Radar forecast at 10 p.m. tonight

The radar forecast at 10 p.m. tonight shows the line of severe storms moving into western Lower Michigan. The speed of the storms would take this line across Lower Michigan between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. tonight. The line of storms may weaken to low-end severe levels, as in 60 mph wind gusts, as it moves east of I-75 late tonight.

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Main threat is straight-line winds

This is the severe wind gust forecast for this evening. There is a 30 percent chance of 58 mph wind gusts or higher within 25 miles of any given point in the red. Another take-away is severe weather is scattered even in the biggest outbreaks. So this doesn't mean every location will have severe wind gusts.

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Rain-wrapped tornadoes possible

Given the expectation of small rotating waves along the line of storms, a few brief tornadoes are possible this evening. Tornadoes in a QLCS are typically hidden from view because they are wrapped up in heavy rain.

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Large hail not a huge threat

Above is the forecast for the chance of large hail. Anytime we have severe storms, hail is possible. In this case, large hail is not expected to be numerous in Lower Michigan with this evening possible storms.

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Final thoughts for now

Remember to watch for updates here on MLive. Severe weather is not a certainty this evening, but is very likely in at least scattered locations. Most of today, before 7 p.m, will be free of storms. And remember in the far southeast - Detroit, Ann Arbor and Monroe- it may be after midnight before you get any storms and rain. By that time, the storms could weaken below severe levels.