Donald Trump will lose the election in Florida - the swing state with the most electoral votes - because most Latinos won't vote for him, Univision News predicts.

As a result, it's virtually impossible for him to win the White House due to the electoral college system, according to a a Univision data analysis of the key five swing states expected to determine the outcome in November.

The forecast, based on a statistical analysis of the presidential race, found that Hillary Clinton will win 48.39% of the vote in Florida, versus 44.87% for Trump.





Clinton will beat Trump by 3.52 points in Florida, Univision News predicts. 44.87 48.39 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote The Democratic candidate will win Florida by approximately 297,000 votes. 4,083,000 votes 3,786,000 votes 44.87 48.39 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote Clinton will win thanks to the Hispanic vote. *percentage points Hispanics: 12.0* Hispanics: 5.8* ( 1,009,000 votes) ( 489,000 votes) 44.87 48.39 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote Without Hispanic voters, Clinton would lose Florida by 3.2 points. 47.9 44.7 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote Clinton will beat Trump by 3.52 points in Florida, Univision News predicts. 44.87 48.39 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote The Democratic candidate will win Florida by approximately 297,000 votes. 4,083,000 votes 3,786,000 votes 44.87 48.39 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote Clinton will win thanks to the Hispanic vote. *Puntos porcentuales Hispanics: 12.0* Hispanics: 5.8* ( 1,009,000 votes) ( 489,000 votes) 44.87 48.39 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote Without Hispanic voters, Clinton would lose Florida by 3.2 points. 47.9 44.7 TRUMP CLINTON % of the Florida vote

Based on data through Sept. 2. Independent candidates aren't included in the above graphic; they would win 6.74%.

THE ESSENTIAL STATE

Of all of the swing states, Florida has the largest number of electoral votes: 29. If he loses Florida, Donald Trump has no chance of attaining the 270 electoral votes needed to become president.





To win the presidency, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes 0 0 164 242 270 270 According to polls and historical trends, the candidates are guaranteed 164 242 and The candidate who wins Florida will gain 29 electoral votes 0 0 164 242 270 270 Clinton only needs 28 to win the election According to Univision's forecast, Trump will lose Florida 0 0 164 242 FLORIDA 270 270 Without Florida, Trump won't have enough electoral votes

Trump's defeat in Florida will stem primarily from the Hispanic vote, since Latinos have a growing influence in the state and show a clear preference for Clinton. According to our forecast, 18% of Florida voters in November will be Hispanic. Of those, 6 out of 10 will support the Democratic candidate.

Republicans still haven't found a way to reach Florida’s Latino voters. In 2012, President Barack Obama won Florida with a boost from Hispanics, and won reelection. He needed 58% of the Latino vote to win the state, but he won even more: 60%.





FLORIDA % OF HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Hispanics 9.2 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 11.3 11.2 15.4 17.3 2016 18.5% Projection Hispanic vote prediction (2016) OTHERS 4.2% CLINTON TRUMP 64.5% 31.3% FLORIDA % OF HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Hispanics 9.2 1996 election 2000 election 2004 election 2008 election 2012 election 11.3 11.2 15.4 17.3 2016 18.5% Projection Hispanic vote prediction (2016) OTHERS 4.2% CLINTON TRUMP 64.5% 31.3% % OF FLORIDA HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Hispanic vote Hispanics prediction for 2016 OTHERS 4.2% TRUMP 18.5% 31.3% 17.3 15.4 11.3 11.2 9.2 CLINTON 2016 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 64.5% Projection % OF FLORIDA HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Hispanics Hispanic vote prediction for 2016 4.2% OTHERS TRUMP 31.3% 18.5% 17.3 15.4 11.2 11.3 9.2 CLINTON 64.5% 2016 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Projection

HOW THE PREDICTION WAS MADE

The Univision News forecast takes into account 19 election variables since 1996, including presidential race results, Latino voter turnout and governors' political affiliation. It also considers the current election context, through variables like unemployment, President Obama's approval rating, inflation, income levels, and campaign and party strategy.





FIVE HISPANIC SWING STATES

The Univision News forecast focuses on five swing states where Latinos have the most influence: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico.

The forecast shows a slight advantage for Trump in Arizona, and in all other states Clinton is predicted to win. Univision predicts the Democratic candidate will sweep the Latino vote in these five swing states.





GENERAL HISPANICS

HOW LATINOS AFFECT THE FLORIDA VOTE

This tool allows users to see how the presidential election will be affected by Latino voter turnout in Florida. The forecast model estimates that if 682,066 Hispanics in Florida cast their ballots (26.3% of eligible Latino voters), Trump and Clinton would tie with 46.5% of the vote. Any other additional Hispanic votes would give Clinton the advantage.

For example, if half of eligible Hispanic voters in Florida cast their ballots, the Democratic candidate would win the state with 47.8% of the vote versus 45.4% for Trump.





62.0 % Hispanics votes: 1,606,887 44.9% 48.4% DONALD TRUMP HILLARY CLINTON





METHODOLOGY The model calculates vote intention for the overall population and Hispanics. The margin of error of the results varies by state and population because of the quality and quantity of information available. The national forecast margin of error is between 0.4% and 2.9%; for the Hispanic population, the margin is around 4%. The latter is higher because there's less information available on Hispanics. Vote intention, margins of error and probability will likely be updated every two weeks until Election Day. Methodology and sources of information on the model can be found here. Note: In the chart "How Latinos affect the Florida vote" the number of voters was calculated by estimating the number of votes expected in 2016 with a projection of the historic growth of the population eligible to vote. The figure obtained was multiplied by the average Latino and non-Latino voter turnout in the last two presidential elections. With that figure, the percent of the overall and Hispanic vote for each candidate was estimated. In the chart "How Latinos affect the Florida vote" the number of voters was calculated by estimating the number of votes expected in 2016 with a projection of the historic growth of the population eligible to vote. The figure obtained was multiplied by the average Latino and non-Latino voter turnout in the last two presidential elections. With that figure, the percent of the overall and Hispanic vote for each candidate was estimated.

Ronny Rojas and Luis Melgar contributed to this report.