In just five seasons, Andrew Luck’s career has been a rollercoaster of emotion. Mr. Luck’s Wild Ride left the station at the 2012 NFL Draft. Coming out of college (click, click, click), the consensus was clear — Luck would be a star. In his first three seasons (click, click, click), he managed three straight 11–5 campaigns. Luck’s ride peaked in 2014 (click, click, pause) when he dragged a fairly talentless roster through the playoffs a la LeBron in ’07. That year, Luck finished as the #2 Fantasy QB averaging 21.9 PPG — less than 2/10s a point behind #1, the well-established Aaron Rodgers. Colt’s fans and fantasy owners alike were holding onto their seats, staring down the tracks at what they all knew was coming. As the 2015 Fantasy Draft approached, many fantasy owners contemplated drafting Luck in the 1st round.. and many of them did.

Incase you forgot how 2015 went for Andrew Luck’s owners, here’s a recap:

Luck suffered an injured throwing shoulder and torn cartilage in two ribs early in the season, only to bounce back from those injuries and lacerate his fucking kidney in a game against the eventual SB Champion Broncos. Oh, and by the way, he managed to finish that game, leading the Colts to a W going 5/7 for 64 Yards and a TD post-laceration. Luck’s injuries were severe enough to shut him down for the remainder of the season, but the Colts Front Office made sure to string his fantasy owners along for a few more weeks before making it official.

Photo: Matt Kryger/The Star

Well, 2015 is a full season behind us now, and although Luck had a great bounce-back year in 2016, many are still weary — rightfully so. I, as one who was burned by the Beard, once again find myself intrigued.

I am a big believer in value driven by opportunity. Luck will not be the first QB drafted in 2017, or the 2nd, or the 3rd. That begs the question: could he end the season there? Basically, where does his actual value exceed his perceived risk. Welp, I’ll try to figure that out..