Every week, we hear about games that professional bettors (aka wiseguys, sharps, etc.) love.

These tend to be underdogs and we usually like to be on the side of the sharps and fading the public at the same time. But these picks don’t always win (see Broncos on Thursday Night Football).

This Saturday, we have a game in which the sharps are lining up with the public on Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have been bet from -2¹/₂ to -4, and there’s a good chance you’ve heard the arguments.

Oklahoma State is coming off a bye week, and it’s homecoming at Boone Pickens Stadium. Everyone seems to be fading undefeated Baylor, which comes into this game ranked No. 18. A lot of people like to bet against teams after they break into the Top 25. Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard leads the nation in rushing (1,094 yards, 13 TDs), plus Baylor lost leading tackler Clay Johnston to a knee injury last week.

However, I’m taking the Bears plus the points (and it might continue to rise before kickoff). Baylor’s offense isn’t as flashy as Oklahoma State’s with Hubbard and dual-threat QB Spencer Sanders, but Sanders has eight interceptions to go with his 10 touchdown passes. I’ll take Baylor’s Charlie Brewer (11 touchdown passes, just three interceptions). And Baylor actually plays defense (allowing just 17.8 points per game) unlike a lot of Big 12 teams. Granted, the Bears lost Johnston, but they lead the conference in sacks and tackles for loss and we often see teams rally around losing a star player.

While many people are downplaying the Bears’ undefeated record, there’s something to be said for a team that has learned how to win — three of Baylor’s last four wins have been within one score. I’d rather have that team getting points as opposed to laying points with a team that doesn’t win its close games.

The play: Baylor, +4.