Details of the downfall of Tunisia's longtime strong man Zein el-Abidine Ben Ali are familiar enough: The spark that triggers the street-level explosion of social anger (a young man, hassled by the government for his pathetic gray-market activities, decides Plan B is to set himself on fire); the frantic government attempts at crackdown (close school!); only to be followed by the offering of sacrificial lambs (take my minister — please!); and, finally, the embarrassing departure of the big man himself. At this point, the rump government is throwing anything it can into the angry fire, hoping it will burn itself out. And the "unity" government doesn't seem to be doing much better.

With any such revolution (color this one green — as in money, despite all the Iran-esque web chatter), there is the temptation to read into it all sorts of larger meaning. This time around, I think the best route is simply to note which parties — outside of Tunisia — should be made supremely nervous by the unfolding events. With the possible exception of Crazy Qaddafi....

1. Any regime with a youth bulge should worry.

Which is most of the Arab world, really, as the bulk of that population is under 30, with big numbers heading into the workforce over the coming years. Experts estimate that — for the Middle East and North Africa alone — 100 million new jobs need to be created by 2030. And the problems in Tunisia have mostly centered on high unemployment, pure and simple. Ben Ali clearly wasn't getting the job done, and now he's out of one.

2. The European Union should worry.

Trapped in its own economic downturn and becoming more wary of foreign workers (e.g., the death of multikulti in Germany), the EU remains the great release valve for North Africa. By being less welcoming, Europe merely condemns North Africa to more tumult like what we've seen this past week, which in turn creates even more of an emigration push from the region. "Children of Men" Europe should know better: it isn't cranking enough babies to be so stand-oafish.

3. China should worry.

This week's summit aside, there's simply the lesson of the masses who revolt over there not being enough jobs. China, by all estimates, needs to create 25 million new ones — a year! — to process the inflow of college graduates and others seeking labor. Then there's China's deserved reputation for its overseas investments: Beijing signs a deal for some big construction gig and then imports all the workers from China — only to strand them there once construction is over! Over time, regimes are coming to the conclusion that China is more problem than solution on the jobs front. So am I, on others.

4. Egypt's modern "pharaoh" should worry.

Last time I was in Egypt, I heard the same lament from every young man I came across: "I can't get married because I can't get a job!" You want to brew a revolution? There's no faster way than keeping young men from getting their just desserts, if you know what I mean. Put them off long enough, and some will resort to a strap-on — you know, the kind that allegedly wins you 72 virgins in the afterlife. And president pharoah Hosni Mubarak's latest offer to his public is... 8-percent economic growth for the foreseeable future. Now that's downright China-like, if he can keep his promises — and fast.

5. Algeria should worry.

Buried in the headlines has been similar street-level unrest nextdoor in Algeria, where the primary complaint is the skyrocketing price of food (30 percent since New Year's Day?!). We've seen these things move in viral waves before (Eastern Europe 1989, the "color revolutions" in the former Soviet Union in the early 2000s), and no amount of hand-washing — much less official hand-wringing — will stem this once like-minded youth culture from coming to the conclusion that, well, Now is the time to stick it to those bastards!

6. Any government keeping the masses happy with food subsidies should worry.

I warned about this just last week over at my day job for Wikistrat: With global food supplies already tight and La Niña playing havoc with crops, emerging-market governments the world over face spiking food costs that may reach the destabilizing heights of 2008. How many revolutions in history have been started over the price of bread? Are you kidding? Virtually all of them. Re-read your Victor Hugo.

Esquire contributing editor Thomas P.M. Barnett is the author of . For his weekly video bulletins for Wikistrat, click here.

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