The NBC/WSJ poll released on Monday, with its high margin of error of 4.6%, looks like a poll intended to reach a certain result. The eleven-point margin is nowhere close to accurate if the point of the poll is to determine where the popular vote is right now. If the poll is intended to show that Republicans were disgusted by Trump's words on a tape eleven years ago over the weekend when the tape ran wall-to-wall, it achieved that. This kind of poll, often provided to us by the NBC/WSJ unit, serves to throw off poll averages. The poll fails all three prongs of the test and will be weighted down in the averages. If I am wrong and other polls reflect this radical shift, I will remove the weight. Somehow I don't think that will happen. If the poll fails only two prongs of the test, incidentally, no weight would be applied. Follow my new account on Twitter for daily updates on the election!

Foul Called on NBC/WSJ Poll Penalty: 0.5 weight applied in poll averages. It will count only half as much as other polls. National Polls FAILED: Other national polls +2.5 Clinton, NBC/WSJ poll +9.0 Clinton. Well outside the five-point acceptable range. Ohio FAILED: OH +0.7 Clinton, NBC/WSJ poll +9.0 Clinton, well outside the acceptable five-point range. Ohio Dem Natl Dem Ohio GOP Natl GOP 2012 50.7 51.0 47.7 47.2 2008 51.5 52.9 46.9 45.7 2004 48.7 48.3 50.8 50.7 2000 46.5 47.4 50.0 47.9 1996 47.4 49.2 41.0 40.7 Florida FAILED: FL+1.8 Clinton. WSJ/NBC poll +9.0 Clinton, well outside the acceptable five-point range. Florida Dem Natl Dem Florida GOP Natl GOP 2012 50.0 51.0 49.1 47.2 2008 51.0 52.9 48.2 45.7 2004 47.1 48.3 52.1 50.7 2000 48.8 47.4 48.8 47.9 1996 48.0 49.2 42.3 40.7