Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams. I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% AL East NYA 97 65 844 692 54.3% 22.5% 8.0% 84.8% AL East TAM 92 70 772 660 23.2% 27.4% 14.1% 64.8% AL East BOS 92 70 862 745 22.1% 27.0% 15.3% 64.4% AL East TOR 78 84 758 795 0.4% 1.2% 2.6% 4.1% AL East BAL 70 92 734 847 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% AL Central DET 88 74 814 741 60.7% 1.6% 12.7% 75.0% AL Central CLE 84 78 763 729 32.1% 0.8% 9.5% 42.4% AL Central CHA 74 88 705 805 3.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.7% AL Central KC 74 88 687 762 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.1% AL Central MIN 67 95 720 861 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% AL West TEX 92 70 812 695 51.2% 8.6% 17.0% 76.8% AL West LAA 91 71 741 653 47.0% 9.9% 16.6% 73.5% AL West OAK 76 86 685 735 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9% AL West SEA 74 88 673 729 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4% AL WC1 94 AL WC2 91 Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% NL East PHI 92 70 701 605 60.8% 12.4% 9.1% 82.2% NL East WAS 86 76 676 625 18.6% 18.2% 9.1% 45.8% NL East ATL 85 77 700 676 13.2% 12.5% 11.0% 36.7% NL East FLA 82 80 708 699 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 22.3% NL East NYN 75 87 670 733 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% NL Central STL 90 72 737 654 47.8% 12.4% 10.3% 70.5% NL Central CIN 87 75 715 665 27.3% 11.6% 12.1% 51.0% NL Central MIL 86 76 696 645 24.6% 12.3% 11.7% 48.6% NL Central CHN 71 91 650 745 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% NL Central PIT 68 94 649 764 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% NL Central HOU 60 102 584 773 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% NL West SF 85 77 663 630 38.1% 3.1% 8.4% 49.5% NL West ARI 84 78 659 634 33.5% 3.6% 8.9% 46.1% NL West COL 81 81 761 759 18.3% 3.0% 6.6% 27.9% NL West SD 76 86 633 668 5.2% 0.8% 2.2% 8.2% NL West LAN 75 87 621 669 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 7.3% NL WC1 90 NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division

WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card

WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel. Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge. The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

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