The dreaded summer break in an odd-number year is almost over: Only 19 days to go until it’s August 16th and Bundesliga finally starts again! I am extra excited because my team – 1. FC Köln – is back after a blessedly short stint in the 2nd Bundesliga. So what can we expect? Another Bayern double? Or will Dortmund’s investments pay dividends directly? Or maybe some surprise team – Vizekusen anybody?

Overall I think Bayern will struggle a little more this year – as of now, there haven’t been any massive transfer improvements for them, and Dortmund, Leverkusen, and Leipzig are not getting any weaker. Especially Dortmund is unusually aggressive on the transfer market – after losing top players in the last years (Aubameyang, Dembele, before them of course Götze, Hummels, Lewandowski, Kagawa, Gündogan, Sahin) they managed to keep the team (minus Pulisic) together and invested in several new players. Behind these two, I see a gap to the next tier: RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Mönchengladbach, Eintracht Frankfurt, maybe Schalke 04 after a disastrous season. At the bottom, Paderborn and Union Berlin will probably struggle. Köln, Freiburg, Augsburg and Düsseldorf will probably also rate just staying in the league as a success.

Internationally, last season was a mixed bag for German teams: All CL teams basically disappointed. Bayern progressed furthest, but lost pretty clearly to Liverpool. There is just a gap currently between the top tier in Europe and the top German teams, both financially and in terms of tactical organization. (There is a reason why Klopp and Tuchel are not coaching in Germany). For the record, I rate Barca, Real, Atletico, PSG, Juve, Man City, Liverpool, and Tottenham as the current European elite. In the Europa League, Frankfurt had a great campaign and only lost to Chelsea in the semi-final (As a reward, their top strikers Haller and Jovic now play for Westham and Real Madrid, respectively. Ouch.)

This is both the result of and cause for the lack of world star signings for the Bundesliga. When the future of Pogba, Griezmann, or Neymar is discussed, Bayern or Dortmund do not play a role. At all. This is of course mainly financial: The Bundesliga gets less TV money than the Premier League, has a more egalitarian distribution than the Spanish La Liga, and does not allow the takeover of clubs by any kind of investors due to the 50+1 rule.

Still, I just read the “Kicker Sonderheft” (as every year since 1989…) and they made a good point: The real superstars have almost never come to the Bundesliga. Starting in the 70s, stars left their home country but did not come to the Bundesliga (Cruyff, Maradona, Van Basten, Ronaldo the original, Ronaldinho etc.). Even German stars went abroad: Rummenigge, Matthäus, Klinsmann, Bierhoff, Ballack want abroad. So the current situation is nothing new for Bundesliga teams: Players like Griezmann or Neymar do not even consider coming to the Bundesliga. Success must therefore come from smart transfers, organization, and continuity. This was also what started the German success on a national level from 2006 to 2016. So I am not as pessimistic regarding the Bundesliga’s future. Even without a reform to the 50+1 rule (which I think should stay as is!) there is a path to international success again.

For this season, I’ll try to have a detailed preview up for each team until the start of the season. I’ll start from the bottom, so Union Berlin will go first. See the links in the table ( order from last year ) below. The betting odds I’ll use are all from bwin.de as of July 24th. Another side note: There won’t be German versions of these previews. Sorry!

Edit: Done! I also changed the order to my predictions. Fight me!