The race between Sen. Pat Roberts and Greg Orman could tilt control of the Senate. Poll: Republicans trail in Kansas

Independent Greg Orman is clinging to a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, according to a new poll of the Kansas Senate race, a contest that could tilt control of the Senate.

Orman leads Roberts, 46 percent to 41 percent, according to the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters, taken from Sept. 27-30.


Orman’s chances improved last month when underfunded Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out, in part at the urging of some national Democrats who see the better-funded Orman as a likelier choice to unseat Roberts in the deep-red state. Republicans, counting on a Roberts win to help them net a Senate majority, parachuted in top party strategists to help reverse Orman’s momentum. But the new poll shows Roberts’ early attacks haven’t dented Orman’s standing.

Orman is viewed favorably by 39 percent of those polled, compared to 25 percent who view him unfavorably. About a third of voters, however, have either never heard of him or have no opinion. Roberts, on the other hand, has near-universal name recognition but is underwater — with 39 percent of likely voters viewing him favorably to 47 percent who see him unfavorably. Just 13 percent are undecided.

( POLITICO's 2014 race ratings)

That’s despite efforts by the GOP to paint Orman as a Democrat masquerading as an independent. The party has invoked Orman’s past contributions to national Democrats, including President Barack Obama, and suggested he’s soft on Obamacare and illegal immigration.

“Liberal Democrat millionaire Greg Orman had the airwaves to himself for weeks, while he spent his fortune misleading Kansans,” Roberts campaign manager Corry Bliss said in a statement Wednesday morning, suggesting that “this race has really just begun.”

Orman has parried GOP attacks by arguing that both parties are failing the American people and suggesting he won’t be beholden to either. He has not committed to caucusing with one party or the other if he wins.

The poll finds that likely Kansas voters have largely soured on Roberts’ job performance, a dynamic that plagued him in a tough primary against a conservative opponent and may be blunting the effectiveness of his attacks on Orman. He’s also not getting any help from Republican Gov. Sam Brownback, who is running slightly behind Democrat Paul Davis, according to the poll. Davis leads 46 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll, with Libertarian Keen Umbehr pulling 6 percent of the vote.

( Full 2014 election results)

In fact, Brownback’s standing in Kansas is about even with President Barack Obama’s, according to the poll, which found 38 percent of Kansans view Brownback favorably, compared to 41 percent who view the president favorably. It’s a remarkable result in a state that picked Republican Mitt Romney over Obama by a 22-point margin in 2012.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, confirms that the election is being fought in an relatively chaotic environment, with no single issue dominating voters’ minds. Asked which issues were most important to them, likely Kansas voters gave nearly equal weight to jobs, health care, education, the federal budget deficit, foreign policy/terrorism and immigration.

It also shows virtually no gender gap, with Orman and Davis leading among women by roughly the same margin they’re leading among men.