HERE WE GO!!! After what has been an eventful few weeks in Armenian football history, with FC Pyunik and Ararat Armenia’s respective runs in European competition, the Armenian National Team is back in the spotlight for another round of qualifiers. This time, the Highlanders will prepare to face top of the group Italy and an underperforming Bosnia-Herzgovina at home.

Group J Standings Before Matchday 5

Armenia go into this match a full 6 points behind group leaders Italy, and 3 points behind second place Finland. After collecting all six points from the last set of qualifiers against Greece and Lichtenstein, Armenia will hope to continue its momentum and pull of a result in the next two matches.

History:

Armenia and Italy are somewhat familiar foes as they have faced off in the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign. In their two meetings, Armenia lost 1-3 at home, with Henrik Mkhitaryan as the only scorer for Armenia. however, in the away leg, Armenia took points off the eventual group winners, and drew 2-2, with Movsisyan and Mkhitaryan on the scoresheet.

Photo Courtesy of the Football Federation of Armenia (@armenia_ff)

Current Qualification:

The difference in campaign so far between Italy and Armenia is measurable. Italy are undefeated, scoring 13 and only conceding a single goal. Armenia on the other hand had a rough start to the campaign, losing to Finland and Bosnia early on. Armenia was clearly still struggling to recover from not clinching their UEFA Nations League group after an embarrassing loss to Gibraltar. However, Armenia’s campaign is definitely on the rise, and that can be either boosted, or shut down quickly, based on the Italy result.

Squad:

The Italy squad to face Armenia is depleting, fast. Italy have already lost Giorgio Chiellini, Mattia De Sciglio and Bryan Cristante to injuries. News earlier today revealed Napoli forward Lorenzo Insigne has also pulled out from the squad and Pellegrini has dropped Moise Kean from the squad due to disciplinary issues. Kean and Insigne are huge losses to Italy and their goal tally, as the forwards have combined for 4 goals so far this qualifying campaign. Chiellini’s absence from defense is a huge blow for the Italian’s, however, they have plenty of defensive talents that are capable of stopping the Armenian attack.

Photo Courtesy of the Football Federation of Armenia (@armenian_ff)

Armenia’s squad is similar to the last qualification, with some minor changes and boosts. Marcos Pizzelli pulls out of the squad due to a long term injury and new Pyunik signee Özbiliz is dropped from the squad due to inactivity. Gor Malakyan is mysteriously dropped from the squad after having arguably his best month of football ever with FC Ararat Yerevan. Armenia are boosted with the return of Andre Calisir, who is likely to return to the back line, and Sergis Adamyan, who were both injured in the last round of matches.

The Italian Job:

Down to the bottom line, who is gonna start, and how are we gonna win? Unfortunately this is where what should be done and what will be done will differ. Gyulbudaghyants is likely going to start with the front line that had brought him success in the previous qualifiers. Karapetyan will likely lead the sign, and deservingly so. He comes in scoring 2 goals in the last 2 matches for Armenia and scoring a goal with his club in the league prior to meeting up with the national team. Tigran Barseghyan and Ghazaryan are likely to take up the wings. This is where the conundrum begins, now that there is a healthy Adamyan, who is clearly one of the more talented players on the squad, who do you start. Ghazaryan has been the old reliable in the campaign so far, and despite bagging goals for Armenia lately, Barseghyan has been very wasteful in front of the net, something that Armenia cannot afford with the limited chances against Italy. However, Adamyan’s track record with the national team is not the best either. With the injury to Marcos, Avetisyan, Babayan and Bichakyan have thrown their hat in the ring to fight for a place in the starting XI, although less likely.

Photo Courtesy of the Football Federation of Armenia (@armenian_ff)

If you haven’t notices yet, there is one player that is yet to be mention…. you guessed it, Mkhitaryan. The Armenian golden boy has been on somewhat of a decline in form and career since his move to England. It is no secret that our talisman has not been the same, and that has been reflective in his performances with the national team. Ultimately, it used to be that if Mkhitaryan performed, the team would win. However, things are starting to change, and the reliance on Mkhitaryan is diminishing, to positive effect. Let’s not understate his importance in the team and his role as the main playmaker. The burden is beginning to rightfully shift to other players in the squad, who are taking their chances.

So how will we play? Well, this is Italy, a big team, and normally this is where Armenia will sit back and “absorb” pressure and counter. Italy, under Pellegrini, have deployed a 4-3-3, with a #6 and #8. The squad tends to focus its play through PSG Midfielder Marco Veratti, and down the left channel with Insigne, who feeds into the ancient goalscorer Fabio Quagriarella. Despite his age, Quagriarella has been ON FIRE for club and country however, he is not with the squad to face Armenia. Due to injury, Italy is likely to deploy Ciro Immobile up front, who has been a revelation since moving back to Italy from Dortmund.

Lineup:

It will not be easy to break down this Italian team, evident by the team only letting in a single gaol so far in the qualifiers. However, in the two meetings with Italy, Armenia have scored 3 goals, and they can do it again. Armenia is likely to send out a familiar lineup in a 4-2-3-1 formation that can look something like this:

Hayrapetyan (GK), Hovhannisyan (LB), Haroyan and Calisir (CB), Hambardzumyan (RB), Mkrtchyan and Ambartsumyan (DM), Ghazaryan (LM), Mkhitaryan (CAM), Barseghyan (RM), Karapetyan (ST)

This is the likely starting lineup for the Armenian side, however there are some questions over who will play in the defensive midfield roles. These spots are the most up for grabs as no pair has stood out as the clear favorites. Adamyan can also make a push to the starting lineup in place of Ghazaryan or Barseghyan. Mkhitaryan and Karapetyan are a shoe-in to be in the eleven.

Prediction:

Who knows? depends on what Armenia shows up, however, there is a strong feeling that the current set of players are beginning to bond similar to the team that almost made the Euros in 2012. Armenia is yet to record a victory against the Italians, but this week could be it. With Mkhitaryan making his escape out of Arsenal and signing with Italian side AS Roma, his mentality going into this game could be the difference. If we have a happy captain, and a firing supporting squad like in the last two matches, Armenia can get the shock result and push for second place in the group, one step closer to qualification.