This article is more than 6 months old

This article is more than 6 months old

Many parts of the world are likely to experience above-average temperatures over the next few months, even without a natural El Niño effect, according to weather experts.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the signal from human-induced climate change was now as powerful as the natural phenomenon, which drives warmer temperatures.

It said there was a 60% chance of a neutral situation without an El Niño or its opposite, La Niña, between March and May. There was a 35% chance of an El Niño developing and 5% for a La Niña.

The El Niño southern oscillation (Enso) is a naturally occurring phenomenon in the Pacific with a warming influence on global temperatures. It is also linked to heavy rain, flooding and drought.

Despite the expected absence of an El Niño, the WMO forecasts there will be above-average sea surface temperatures in many parts of the world, which will lead to higher than normal land temperatures. Climate change would contribute to these conditions, the WMO said.

The WMO’s secretary general, Petteri Taalas, said: “Even Enso-neutral months are warmer than in the past, as air and sea surface temperatures as well as ocean heat have increased due to climate change.

“With more than 90% of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases going into the ocean, ocean heat content is at record levels. Thus, 2016 was the warmest year on record as a result of a combination of a strong El Niño and human-induced global warming. 2019 was the second-warmest year on record, even though there was no strong El Niño.

“We have just had the warmest January on record. The signal from human-induced climate change is now as powerful as that from a major natural force of nature.”