Fresh off the heels of an expected — yet still incredibly frustrating -- loss to the New England Patriots, the Dallas Cowboys (6-5) are back in the cozy confines of AT&T Stadium to take on another AFC East foe, the Buffalo Bills, on Thanksgiving Day.

Despite being favored in just four games this season, the Bills somehow stand with an 8-3 record. Luckily for the Cowboys, Buffalo’s record is a bit deceiving, as the film and advanced stats paint the picture of a middling team that has seen the ball bounce its way more often than not.

Coming into Week 12 (numbers get updated Tuesday afternoon), the Bills ranked 25th in total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), 23rd in offensive DVOA, 14th in defensive DVOA and 26th in special teams DVOA, according to FootballOutsiders.com. For comparison’s sake, the Cowboys ranked fourth in total DVOA, first in offensive DVOA, 20th in defensive DVOA and 25th in special teams DVOA.

By these metrics, the Cowboys should have the advantage on each side of the ball while special teams is essentially a push, which is surprising given how inept Dallas has been on special teams this season even before Sunday’s issues. But, it needs to be mentioned, the Bills rank first in kickoff return yardage.

Still, as we’ve seen this season, the fact that Dallas is the more talented team doesn’t even come close to guaranteeing victory.

With that in mind, let’s dive into some keys to victory for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day:

Contain Josh Allen in the pocket

The Cowboys’ issues defending a mobile quarterback were on full display against the Detroit Lions, as Jeff Driskel led the Detroit offense to 27 points in a losing effort. Driskel gave the Cowboys’ defense fits on zone-read keepers and scrambles.

Unfortunately for Dallas, Josh Allen is a similar but much more talented version of Driskel. While Allen is a little bit slower than Driskel, he’s a more powerful and elusive runner with better instincts.

This is why it’s imperative the Cowboys’ defensive line gets back to the basics by being disciplined in its rush lanes, an area where the team has struggled at times this season. Take this play against the Lions as an example:

Robert Quinn’s potent speed rush has been a hugely effective weapon this year, but the downside is that when it’s not successful, it often gives quarterbacks a giant alley to either escape the pocket or scramble for positive yards -- the latter of which occurs in the above clip.

Quinn, who is double-teamed by the tight end and running back, opts to take a wide track outside to try to attack the pocket. Unfortunately, Quinn isn’t able to capture the edge, enabling the tight end to run him beyond the apex of the quarterback’s drop and creating a giant void for Driskel to pick up yards.

Fortunately for Dallas, defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence was in hot pursuit as linebacker Leighton Vander Esch rallied toward the line of scrimmage, forcing Driskel to slide, which stopped the bleeding.

On top of being more disciplined in their rush lanes, the Cowboys would be wise to eschew their tendencies to run a variety of pass-rush stunts and twists upfront. Defensive line stunts and twists are a great way to create confusion among the protection and manufacture a pass rush, but they often can create voids in the rush for the QB to exploit with his feet. Here’s an example:

On this play, the Cowboys paired a tackle/end stunt with a slot blitz off the edge. Quinn took too wide of a rush angle when he looped around Maliek Collins, which made it easy for the center to wash him outside and create a massive void in the middle of the pass rush for Driskel to take advantage of.

Because of the lateral movement created on stunts or twists, it’s exceedingly difficult for the defensive line to consistently maintain rush lanes. It’s something that seems easy when drawn up on a whiteboard but is much more difficult in application.

This week, the Cowboys would be wise to employ a more basic rush plan that enables the defensive line to maintain rush lanes while condensing the pocket around Allen.

This doesn’t mean the Cowboys shouldn’t ever run stunts and twists Thursday, the coaching staff just needs to be much more particular when they use them. For example, a stunt isn’t a bad idea when coupled with a linebacker playing a “spy” technique because the linebacker is positioned to mirror the QB and take away his scrambling opportunities, taking some of the pressure off the defensive line to maintain rush lanes. Here is a great example:

Exhibit H.



Jaylon Smith is an extremely effective QB spy as well. Mirrors Russell Wilson and deflects the pass. Notice how he never overpursues Wilson's inside hip, puts him in position to defend the potential cutback. pic.twitter.com/4e5isyVW5X — John Owning (@JohnOwning) May 31, 2019

The Cowboys are extremely lucky to have a linebacker as athletic as Jaylon Smith in the middle of their defense, as he is the perfect candidate to be a QB spy as illustrated in the above clip.

Here, the Cowboys do a much better job of staying disciplined with their rush lanes despite the mirrored tackle/end stunts on both sides of the defensive line. Still, Russell Wilson is able to work his magic and escape the pocket, which would have been a huge problem had Smith not been in a spy technique on the Seahawks’ QB.

Therefore, instead of being gutted by Wilson’s scramble, Smith is able to prevent Wilson from picking up the first down with his feet while also deflecting the pass when Wilson knew he couldn’t beat Smith to the edge.

Using Smith as a spy could be extremely beneficial this week, as Allen is the type of QB who can make defenses pay with his legs, whether it’s extending the play to create chunk gains in the passing game or turning into a runner and scrambling for yardage. Allen is currently second among QBs in total carries (83; behind only Lamar Jackson) and leads the NFL in number of scrambles (37), according to Pro Football Focus.

The key to slowing down the Bills’ offense is keeping Allen in the pocket and forcing him to beat you with his arm. Allen is a mediocre passer, as he currently ranks 19th (among the 29 QBs who have taken 50% of their offense’s snaps) in yards per attempt and 17th in adjusted completion percentage (74) -- meaning throwaways and drops aren’t included -- according to PFF. The advanced stats paint a similar picture, as Allen ranks toward the bottom of the NFL in both EPA per play and completion percentage above expected based on target depth (explanations of each are linked).

If the Cowboys can keep Allen in the pocket, the defense has a great opportunity to stymie this tough Bills offense.

Limit missed tackles

Another key for the Cowboys’ defense is to limit the missed tackles against an elusive Bills offense, an area in which the Cowboys have struggled this season.

Since missing just two tackles in Week 9 against the New York Giants, the Cowboys missed 12 against the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in Weeks 9-10 before missing 10 tackles Sunday against the Patriots, according to PFF.

Much like the rush lane issue mentioned above, it’s critical the Cowboys get back to the basics to tighten up their tackling technique. While various issues have led to myriad missed tackles, the biggest problems have been the Dallas defenders’ reluctance to come to balance at the tackle point and poor pursuit angles. Here’s a great example, as both issues come up on a single play:

Sean Lee overpursues Dalvin Cook in the flats, resulting in a missed tackle. Xavier Woods and LVE also miss tackles while also running into each other. Awuzie makes the tackle but also gets called for a facemask.



Ruined DLaw's quick pressure. pic.twitter.com/HHmXnxAlxS — John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 13, 2019

On this play, Sean Lee starts off the missing tackle extravaganza by overpursuing Dalvin Cook on the outside, enabling Cook to cut back inside of Lee to get into the open field outside the numbers. Lee should have pursued Cook inside-out while using the sideline to his advantage.

Not to be outdone by Lee, Xavier Woods made a crucial mistake by not coming to balance at the tackle point, flying into Cook while only getting one hand on the Minnesota RB as he veered inside. Not only was Woods so out of control that he missed the tackle, but he also essentially blocked Vander Esch as well, preventing the LB from making the tackle from behind.

The Cowboys’ defense, at every level, has to do a better job of taking the proper pursuit angles, coming to balance at the tackle point and wrapping up the defender instead of looking for the big hit.

While the Cowboys certainly want to tackle well every week, it’s even more important this week. The Bills generate a lot of their yards through avoiding tackles, with two players (Allen and RB Devin Singletary) who rank top-10 in PFF’s elusive rating, which distills the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking in front of him by looking at how hard he was to bring down (click here for a more in-depth explainer on the metric).

Allen has forced an impressive 18 missed tackles on just 49 rush attempts while creating 6.85 yards after contact per attempt, which is best in the NFL by over two full yards, according to PFF.

At 6-foot-5 and 238 points, Allen is a juggernaut in the open field, possessing the power to run through arm tackles and over smaller defenders. He also has enough nimbleness to elude defenders bracing for contact. Whether he’s in the pocket or in the open field, the Cowboys have to be consistently effective tacklers or Allen will make them pay.

Singletary has battled injuries, but when healthy, he’s been one of the most elusive backs in the NFL. Thus far this season, Singletary has forced 21 missed tackles on just 84 rush attempts, averaging 2.6 yards after contact per attempt.

Singletary doesn’t possess much deep speed, but he is extremely quick and elusive, even in tight spaces. He can layer together jump cuts to avoid tackles in succession while possessing a noteworthy stiff arm that he uses to routinely spring himself to the edge.

On paper, the Cowboys actually match up pretty well with the Bills’ offense and have a real shot at shutting them down, but if they don’t clean up their tackling issues, the Bills will make them pay while preventing Dallas from accomplishing the next key to victory …

Don’t let Buffalo keep it close

While the Cowboys are seemingly the more talented team in per-play effectiveness, one area where the Bills have performed much better than the Cowboys is in close games. The Bills currently have a record of 3-2 when games are decided by three points or fewer.

One season after going 8-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer, the Cowboys have regressed toward the mean this season, going 0-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer.

Whether it be because of bad luck, bad coaching or bad execution (or a combination of all three), the Cowboys have yet to prove they can win close games this season, so they’d be better off doing their best to avoid them. This means the Cowboys need to be aggressive in their journey to build a lead.

Playing on the road Thanksgiving Day is tough, and the Cowboys need to take full advantage by keeping the pressure on a Bills team that would probably prefer to be spending time with its families rather than traveling to Arlington to play a non-division opponent.

The worst thing the Cowboys can do is let the Bills hang around until the end, giving them the opportunity to steal the game late.

Attack Levi Wallace

This one is easy.

One of Buffalo’s starting cornerbacks, Tre’Davious White, is among the best players at his position and is having a great year, accumulating four interceptions and six pass breakups while giving up a 54.4 reception percentage, a 51.1 passer rating (fifth-best among CBs who have played 50% of their defense’s snaps, according to PFF) and zero touchdowns when targeted.

The other starting cornerback, Levi Wallace, is struggling this season, giving up a 69.1 reception percentage, a 109.6 passer rating and four touchdowns when targeted.

While they didn’t do it much to start the season, the Bills have opted to have White shadow the opposing team’s No. 1 WR in the past three games. In Week 9, White shadowed Washington’s Terry McLaurin, covering him on 80% of his routes and allowing three catches for 27 yards on four targets, according to PFF. In Week 10, White shadowed Odell Beckham Jr. on 85.4% of his routes, giving up just three catches for 27 yards on 10 targets. In Week 11, White shadowed DeVante Parker on 68.8% of his routes, giving up five catches for 80 yards on five targets.

This means that White will likely be shadowing Amari Cooper. And while the Cowboys shouldn’t avoid targeting White -- it’s rarely a bad idea to target Cooper at home -- Dak Prescott would be wise to target Michael Gallup against Wallace.

Gallup’s size, yards-after-catch prowess and ability to make plays above the rim should give Wallace fits, and the Cowboys should look to take full advantage.

Don’t be surprised if Gallup is able to take a short pass and turn it into a chunk gain after breaking a Wallace tackle, as the Buffalo cornerback struggles in the tackling department. Through 11 games, Wallace has missed 10 tackles, fourth most among CBs, whereas Gallup ranks 14th among WRs in avoided tackles, according to PFF.

Moreover, the Cowboys should look to take advantage of Wallace if he ends up matched up with Cooper. We’ve seen what Cooper can do with his superior route running against average cornerbacks, and Wallace would likely end up as the latest victim.