On Saturday evening Matt and I exchanged several e-mails discussing the possibility of storms today. We were concerned about the ongoing forecast, given that a number of forecast models weren’t showing much support for widespread severe weather in Houston on Sunday. This was largely due to the potential for the atmosphere over Houston to remain capped, which seemed like a distinct possibility based upon some of the available data. At the same time, other variables indicated the likelihood of an active weather day, and the National Weather Service and NOAA were continuing to forecast Houston under a “moderate” risk for severe weather, including the potential for tornadoes. So we were left with a dilemma—should we be an outlier and call attention to the possibility of a bust?

We decided not to, both because we still thought there was a decent threat of severe weather, and we didn’t want to offer a conflicting message to that from the official forecast warning offices, whose work we respect and trust.

Understandably, if you live in Harris County or closer to the coast, you’re probably wondering where the tornadoes are, not to mention the rain. Probably half of the region didn’t see more than a sprinkle on Sunday. Some people canceled plans for today, based upon forecasts for severe weather. That is how it goes sometimes, and we are the first to acknowledge that we will make mistakes, as we did Friday, Saturday and Sunday with regard to storms in Houston today. What we want readers to understand is that our mistake was made out of imperfect information, rather than a desire to cause unnecessary alarm. (It is also worth noting that some very severe weather developed north, and northeast of Houston today, it just happened to be about 100 miles, or more, away from central Houston).

Why should you believe us? Our web site has no advertising. We have a sponsor, and we have sold out sponsorships for the rest of the year. There is literally no incentive for us to push the threat of severe weather for clicks, page views, or ratings. We have support for the site regardless. If our credibility is our most valuable asset—and we believe it is—then we actually have a strong disincentive to hype weather.

In any case, we’ll continue to do the best we can for you. Happily, after some lingering showers clear the area this afternoon, Houston is going to have some pretty darn nice weather this week. We’ll have full details on that in the morning.

Posted at 2:50pm CT on Sunday by Eric

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.