WASHINGTON — Two Texas Republicans in Congress face especially stiff headwinds in their bids to survive this year’s midterm elections, thanks in large part to the man in the Oval Office. Their fates, and their party’s majority, may hinge on the extent of the Trump effect.

The Texas primaries on Tuesday have been an early skirmish, as Democrats nationwide bet that Donald Trump’s record-setting unpopularity will drag down allies in Congress.

“We’ve made a point of going after Trump,” said Jay Hulings, one of the Democrats hoping to oust Rep. Will Hurd in a vast West Texas swing district that covers more than a third of the U.S.-Mexico border. “People understand that Washington is broken by watching Trump break it.”

The slogan in his ads: “Stop Trump. Vote Jay Hulings.”

Democrats are using much the same bludgeon against Rep. John Culberson, a veteran conservative defending the seat once held by former president George H.W. Bush — a district where country club Republicans outnumber tea partiers and Trump lovers.

“People are really pinning a lot of hopes on our ability to flip the House,” said Laura Moser, one of the Democrats vying to oust Culberson. “His voting record is entirely in line with Trump’s wishes. It tars him plenty.”

Democrats need to flip control of 24 seats nationwide to retake control of the House. They’re eyeing more than 100 districts nationwide, and the juiciest targets are those where Trump lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but which remain in the hands of a Republican congressman.

Texas has three such seats — held by Hurd, Culberson and Dallas Rep. Pete Sessions. Analysts view Sessions as safer due to the demographics and voting patterns of his district. Trump looms over all of them.

“It’s a pretty big factor. Midterms are referendum on the incumbent president, and as unpopular and divisive as Trump has been there’s no way to get away from Trump,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.

In 2010, Republicans picked up 63 House seats, as voters punished Barack Obama for economic malaise and his signature health care overhaul. It was the worst drubbing in a midterm election since 1938, when Franklin Roosevelt’s Democrats lost 71 seats.

Democrats smell a similar opportunity this year to use backlash against a president as leverage, even in Texas, where they hold just 11 of 36 congressional seats and haven’t won a statewide office since 1994. That’s played out in the competition to “leave the biggest bruise on Trump” in the primaries.

“It’s definitely part of the strategy,” said Rottinghaus.

But Republicans may not be quaking, and many cling to Trump “closer than bark on a tree” — reflecting the deep partisan split, he added. Democrats may despise the president but GOP candidates fear alienating his supporters in a tough election season.

“Democrats can’t not talk about Trump. Republicans can’t distance themselves from Trump because they are relying on the base to rally around the president,” Rottinghaus said.

West Texas swing district

The dynamic is very much in play in Hurd’s district, deemed a toss-up by analysts.

Hurd won by just 3,051 votes out of nearly 229,000 in a rematch against Pete Gallego, the Democrat he’d ousted after one term by just 2,422 votes.

The district has a high Hispanic population and Trump’s demands for a border wall and curbs on immigration don’t play well. Before Hurd, a former undercover CIA officer, won re-election in 2016, voters had a habit of tossing out congressmen after one term.

He insists that whatever voters feel about Trump, his fate isn’t tied to the president.

“I don’t believe in coattails. Coattails didn’t matter in my last election. Coattails aren’t going to matter in this election,” Hurd said. “I have an independent relationship with the folks in my district. When they go in to vote, they’re bringing my report card, not anybody else’s.”

“Everybody wants to nationalize elections,” he said. “The fact that I’ve done over 600 public events, that I’m solving problems for constituents in the district, I’m fighting for issues they care about, I’m helping them get more money in their pockets with tax reform — these are the issues people care about.”

Hulings’ indictment: Although Hurd has publicly criticized Trump’s vision of a massive border wall, he also has voted for a budget that would fund it, just as he has voted to end DACA, the program that has protected young immigrants from deportation.

“He votes with Trump 97 percent of the time,” said Hulings, a former federal prosecutor and one of five Democrats vying for the nomination. If Hurd wins, he added, “we’re going to get another two years of no check against Donald Trump. He can do whatever he wants and he’ll continue to tear apart the fabric of American society and government.”

A Democratic runoff is likely, as it is in the Culberson district, which Clinton carried by 1 percentage point. She won by the same margin in Sessions' district and carried Hurd's by 3 points.

Trump’s GOP support remains high

But 83 percent of Republicans in Texas approve of Trump, according to a recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

The means that Republicans who tie themselves to Trump aren’t making a bad bet.

“The Trump factor is a motivator for Democrats but he’s not going to hurt Republicans,” said Jim Henson, director of UT’s Texas Politics Project. “The Republicans who have gambled on hugging up to the president have probably gambled correctly.”

Democrats hold intensely negative views of Trump — more intense than Republicans’ approval of him. But at this point that gap isn’t wide enough to be decisive in most contests, Henson said.

With all the turmoil, staff turnover and missteps that Trump has already survived in 13 months as president, “It’s hard to imagine what could happen that would cause a massive desertion of Trump by his voters.”

Mike Baselice, an Austin-based Republican pollster, called Democrats overly optimistic if they’re pinning hopes on an anti-Trump uprising among Texas voters.

“They’re on everyone’s radar screen,” Baselice said of Hurd, Culberson and Sessions. But for now, Trump is more asset than liability, and having him in one these districts talking about low unemployment rates, an improving economy and security — “that’s an advantage,” he said.

Harris County Democratic chair Lillie Schechter said anti-Trump sentiment is a major theme of 2018, and is bound to hit Culberson.

“It’s prevalent everywhere. Every meeting or social gathering there’s just a constant discussion of Trump’s actions,” she said, adding that backlash to Trump has driven Democratic enthusiasm to levels she hasn’t seen in 25 years, with more candidates on the ballot and the biggest turnout for the county party’s annual fundraising dinner. “It’s all reaction to the 2016 election and Trump.”

Gov. Greg Abbott recently warned Texas Republicans that a surge in early voting by Democrats "should shock every conservative to their core."

But after meeting with Texas congressmen in Washington, he projected more optimism, shrugging off the possibility that with 25 of 36 seats in the U.S. House delegation, Texas GOP strength has peaked.

“Any analysis like that would be very premature,” he said, noting that Trump’s approval ratings have risen since Congress enacted a tax overhaul in December. Besides, he said, “Maybe many Texans think the country may not be on the right track but they think the state of Texas is on the right track, so we’re in great shape.”