Come On, Thor. It’s NEVER Too Early for a Mock Draft.

I know, it’s NBA Draft season, and you know we’ve got you covered with an NBA Mock Draft. But unlike with the NBA, it’s always NFL Draft season, and there’s always an NFL mock draft out there worth reading. Soooooo…

Welcome back to Attack the Mock (believe, bruv!) where we explore and deconstruct a mock draft for the 2020 NFL Draft, and talk to the analyst about their process.

Now that I am finally recovered from the shock of seeing Ferrell go at 4 and exploding all our mock drafts into bloody gobs of meat… it’s time to give it another go. And while I was adding the choicest, freshest mocks to our 2020 NFL Mock Draft Database (bookmark it for your brains!) I found it. After all these years, I’ve found it: the greatest Way Too Early Mock Draft I’ve ever seen. A true work of art, and a work of work, courtesy of Rotoworld, and their precocious lead CFB writer from up north, Thor Nystrom. Oh, do I mean the Thor Nystrom who was the 2018 Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s 2018 College Sports Writer of the Year?

Kid, you know that’s who I mean.

Here’s the FULL MOCK DRAFT, so you can follow along at home.

This mock is required reading before making your own (Never) Too Early Mock Draft. Then, once you’re ready, make your own mock draft and enter a mock draft contest using the free MockOut app. Even this early, we’re 200 prospects deep in our player pool.

Let’s dig into Thor’s mock.

Micky: Before we look ahead to the 2020 NFL Draft, what did you think of this year’s draft? Anything in particular surprise you?

Thor: It was a blast! It wasn’t a down year really, but more of an unpredictable year because there weren’t any elite prospects at QB, no elite WRs, a lot of disagreement on the OT rankings. But it was absolutely stacked on defense in the front 7, which meant a lot of curveballs on draft night. So it wasn’t The Avengers, you know, where it’s just loaded with big name stars. It was more of an M. Night Shyamalan movie, where you don’t have any idea what’s going to happen. But going into Days 2 and 3, some guys fell that were totally unexpected. (Hakeem) Butler should have gone higher than he did. Both he and Metcalf had question marks, but both have that elite skill that will help prevent them from busting in the NFL. They surprised me.

Oh, you do not have to sell me on Butler. Metcalf, on the other hand…? Well, my little navy and neon green heart is full of hope. I was also thrown for a few loops, especially focusing on the O-line. I came in very high on Cody Ford and Erik McCoy, and for both of those guys to last into the second round while players like Josh Jacobs and L.J. Collier went in the first (I’m trying so hard to love my Hawks’ draft) still has me shaken. Just don’t even get me started on Hakeem.

Back to mock making!

Micky: How do you feel about making a mock draft so early, and what’s your approach?

Thor: A lot of people in the media kind of resent having to make too early mock drafts. I get it. It is too early! I’m not gonna get 20 picks right. That isn’t the point. Where we are right now with teams and personnel, prospects, and we don’t even have their most important year on tape yet. At this point last year Hockenson hadn’t had his mega-god season. Haskins hadn’t done anything yet. No 40 times, no athletic profiles. Making a mock right now is about taking the temperature of the room, you know. Pack it with as much info as possible, because a lot of people are new to these players. Or maybe only saw them one time in the national championship game, and they don’t have context.

It’s why people are wrong about Tua. They just watched him for a bit of the championship game, and they say oh he can’t win against good defenses. But Clemson had a dominant defense, full of NFL players. People don’t have the context that he ripped up LSU, Auburn, Missouri, he ripped up a procession of really good defenses, but people didn’t tune in. So for me, making a way too early mock is about giving context to the players people know, and introducing them to players they don’t. Take your ego out of the equation, because getting picks right is not what this is about, and just get the info out there and gauge where prospects are right now.

As a mock draft enthusiast (not an analyst, myself) this is what the game is all about for me right now. Collecting resources. Aggregating information. This is why we run the database.

Thor talks about context, and that’s the key. It’s really hard to have context about a player if you only start following them or reading about them after the CFB season is over. Starting in on the players who are closest to being NFL-ready, or having an NFL skill set at this point in the year, seeing how their stock rises and falls in relation to how they started, will go a long way toward determining their ultimate landing spot. On draft day, it’s much more useful to look at a player not as a snapshot of where they are at that one point in time… but where they are now, in relation to where they were when the season started.

Since he brought up Tua, I’m going to dive right into that first overall pick.





1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

Micky: You and I had a similar situation, where we were forced by our draft order to have Miami at the top, but neither of us wanted to have the Dolphins replace Rosen, and we didn’t want to have anyone other than Tua go pick 1. I went with a trade to Tennessee. You picked the Raiders. Why the Raiders? How do you think Tua would fit in the Gruden offense, and what happens to Carr?

Thor: Tua fits perfectly in Jon Gruden’s offense. Carr doesn’t fit as well. Gruden wants West Coast concepts, and Tua is the perfect WCO prospect. He’s basically the second coming of Steve Young. And there’s just better situations for Carr out there. Of course if the Raiders make the playoffs, they won’t take Tua. That would imply that Gruden and Carr had a meeting of the minds and things are going to work out together. So if they figure out a way to make it work, great! Plug two other spots with the picks. The two first rounders, because they’ve got the Bears pick. But if Carr falls on his face and the other offseason acquisitions don’t work out as planned, I don’t see how you don’t move on from him. Tua could be the new face of the franchise, in time for their move to Vegas. And Mayock showed us this past draft that he kind of fetishizes those battle tested, championship-caliber players. Bama and Clemson and the powerhouse teams. Both guys will fall in love with Tua, and if they are in a position to go get him, it’s because Carr didn’t work out.

Here is a demonstration of how the draft order we work with in the preseason can dramatically affect the results of a mock draft. Thor used a draft order based on Mike Clay’s Win Projections, and started from a draft order where OAK started in the top-5 and TEN had pick 16. In my draft order, which was based on odds provided by using Vegas sportsbook averages, I was working from an order where TEN had pick 8 and OAK had pick 12. I think in both scenarios, considering the two different draft orders, the correct team moved up.

We’ve also got another example of how context matters. We’re both looking at the draft order not just as a way to determine who gets the first crack at players, but also as a way to make predictions of what the regular season will look like. In Thor’s mock, if the Raiders do end up with a top-5 pick, then it would be safe to assume in this hypothetical situation that Gruden was not able to successfully fit Carr into his scheme. And so there’s no hesitation. Time to move on.

While I know why analysts prefer to use outside sources for the draft order at this point (otherwise it distracts from the real purpose of a Too Early Mock… to get the prospect names out there, get people watching the prospects who have the best first-round potential) I secretly love my one preseason mock, usually made just before the season starts, where I also predict the draft order. We have all year, and next year’s offseason to discuss all the players… mock drafts can also be a great vehicle for making NFL predictions as well. The bread in an Angry Fan Base Sandwich.

Let’s get back to these picks!





6. Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado

Micky: The Shenault pick really stood out to me, and he’s a guy I really like. Pretty much everyone has Jeudy at the top of this WR class, and you do as well, but then you have Shenault going at pick 6. A lot of other mocks I’ve seen have Ruggs or Lamb or even Tee Higgins ahead of Shenault. Did you mock him there simply because of the Colorado connection, or do you think he’s done enough to be considered WR2 at this point, ahead of those other guys?

Thor: I think he’s good enough to be in the WR1 discussion! I still haven’t decided on Shenault vs. Jeudy at this point. Who’s going to be my WR1. He’s an absolute beast. A lot of people missed him because they haven’t seen a lot of Colorado football, then he got hurt, then he got rushed back onto the field by coaches who knew they were getting fired. But before he got hurt, he was dominating and dominating and opposing defenses ganged up on him because they knew he was their only source of offense, and he dominated. This year he’s healthy, there’s a new staff, and hopefully they’ll do a better job with his usage. Last year he was fed so much, it increased his chances of getting injured. They lined him up in the wildcat, lined him up at TE. He’s strong as an ox. Hopefully this staff figures out a way to feed him while taking those wildcat snaps away. Find someone else to get 3 or 4 yards so he’s not piled up on so much.

This WR class is going to be bonkers. One other thing I like about Shenault is how different his game is from the other top prospects coming out next year. There’s going to be a lot of speed. Route running technicians. And more speed. Shenault is certainly no slouch, but he also brings power with him, like Thor mentioned. He is a bully with the ball in his hands. I’m not going to burden Thor with this comp—this one is purely mine—but right now, at this point, Shenault’s game feels a lot like Dez Bryant in his prime. 2020 mock drafts are going to be really fun when your two choices at the top are the second coming of AB (which is how Jeudy is currently being comped) and the second coming of Dez. Very different styles and impacts, both insanely fun to watch.

Let’s get back to QBs with the Bengals pick, to discuss something I’ve wanted to ask about for a while.





7. Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

Micky: You’ve got a disclaimer with this Bengals pick, saying that it assumes Herbert returns to his 2017 form. That he regressed in 2018. I found this very interesting, because I feel like a lot of Too Early Mocks focus on players’ ceilings, without really mentioning or discussing players’ floors, or chances for regression. Do you typically do it that way as well? Mock a prospect as if everything had gone right for them in this upcoming season? Or do you also bake in any ideas of how a player could disappoint or regress this year?

Thor: That’s a really great question. I don’t think there’s enough time spent talking about the downsides of players, and a lot of us kind of get into superlatives battles. It’s easier to write that way. No one wants to be the guy to insinuate a top-10 pick is going to be a bust. I’m not omniscient, I’m not prescient. Even with Tua, I can’t tell you he’ll go to 5 Pro Bowls or more. Instead, I assess prospects more like a financial trader. When they look at a stock, they do a risk assessment, look at upside, downside, bake those things together. What’s his ceiling, if everything comes together for him? If he doesn’t progress any further, where is he right now? Then, what are the odds he hits his ceiling? Does he have correctable flaws, or is it an athletic limitation thing where there’s no path forward? Bake all those things together, and that’s where I’ll rank them.

Totally agree. One thing I loved hearing, and like to focus on myself, is the question, “what are the odds he hits his ceiling?” You can’t just look at a player’s ceiling, look at his floor, and assume he has an equal chance of hitting both. Some players can have ceilings that are equal, but their odds of hitting said ceiling are wildly different. If a college player is already very polished, but has some athletic limitations, his ceiling will be lower than a raw, athletic marvel. But his odds of hitting his ceiling are far greater than they are for the marvel, and that lower, achievable ceiling is too often ignored in favor of pure upside.

Let’s talk a little defense here.





19. Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

Micky: The last few drafts have featured a lot of DT talent at the top, but you don’t have your first DT go until pick 19. Do you think this is a much weaker DT class? Where would Derrick Brown have ranked for you if he had come out this past year?

Thor: Brown was eligible and strongly considered jumping. I would not have taken him over Tillery, Simmons, maybe not Lawrence. If he had come out, he’d be the last guy in that top tier. Late first rounder, early second. It’s a down class, and players will need to emerge. We knew coming into the college season last year that it would be a dominant front-7 class, early. Ed Oliver, Simmons, the Clemson guys. There are fewer of those guys this year. It’s pretty typical, when you have a really good positional group in a class, the next year’s not as good. The RB class stunk last year, but this year’s should be good. We’ll get bumps in other position groups.

I wonder if that’s what happened to the WR class last year? I actually really liked the group of WRs, and almost all of them went later than I thought they would, or should. Maybe front offices were looking ahead to this year’s draft, measured last year’s prospects against them, and declared it a down year by comparison. So we should see a lot of WRs early in this upcoming draft, but not nearly the interior D-line picks early that we saw in 2019.

Based on his mock, it also looks like this will be a major up year for Cornerbacks.

Let’s finish off his picks with one final QB projection.





31. Jake Fromm, QB Georgia

Micky: It’s become a tradition to mock the Pats a QB at 31 or 32. In this case, you’ve got a big fall for Fromm, who I’ve seen as high as pick #1 in some mocks. What do you see in Fromm that you’ve got him at the end of the round, and why do you think the Pats will finally, finally take a first-round QB next season?

Thor: Etling and Stidham are not the answer. And I just don’t see how Brady can go beyond another year or two. The decision will be out of his hands at some point. I actually had Fromm out of the first round in the first draft of this mock. I really question whether he is a first-round player. He’s never hit 3,000 yards. He’s worked with elite offenses. He’s worked with a bare minimum of 4 NFL-caliber RBs, maybe 5 or 6 at the end of the day. He’s had all this talent, all this help, where defenses are sucked up because of the threat of the run, and all his WRs are more talented than the CBs they’re facing. I need to see more than 3,000 yards before we consider him a first-rounder. He doesn’t have a bazooka and he’s not mobile, so he has to be elite in those other categories; accuracy, decision-making. He’s a good decision-maker, but he needs to show elite accuracy at all three levels of the field, and I haven’t seen it yet. If I’m facing Fromm, I’m not afraid I’ll get shredded down the field, even though he’s had all these weapons to work with.

This is NOT to say he can’t get there. You can’t plant your flag on a guy the year before. You just have to know where you are right now with a guy, and hopefully he can take that step forward. But if the NFL Draft was tomorrow, I’m not taking Fromm.

Sooooo… you want my headline to read, “Pats Draft Fromm as Future of the Franchise”? Done.

I like this pick and landing spot a lot more now, despite all the “he’s not a first-rounder” talk, because this shows exactly what has to be measured. Not just the player’s talent, where they are right now. Not just where you think they will be when the season ends. But also where you think a franchise will be when the season ends. So many considerations beyond just “How good is Fromm?” need to go into this pick. How good is Stidham? How indestructible is Brady?

A few final tidbits before I wrap this thing up.

Micky: Are there any players who didn’t make the cut who you still think have a good chance to be first rounders when all’s said and done?

Thor: One guy who I really wanted in there but couldn’t find a spot for was Paulson Adebo the Cornerback from Stanford. People didn’t watch him much last year, the PAC-12 was down a bit, but he’s good. I was heartbroken I couldn’t get him in there. No RBs yet, because there’s not any one guy I have no questions about. Collin Johnson from Texas, Terrell Lewis from Bama. Mekhi Becton, the huge OT from Louisville. He’s an enormous guy, almost like a bouncer at a bar. Becton’s got some skill, so he kind of intrigues me too.

I’m excited to see how those less-well known players perform this season. Right now in the MockOut app, we’ve got Adebo at number 53, Johnson at 59, Lewis at 52, and Becton at 37 overall in the Player Pool. Sounds like we should be ready to move one or all of these prospects up the rankings a bit, once the games start. I’ll be keeping an eye on them.

Finally, my favorite answer from Thor, which I think shows exactly why he’s so respected and personally liked in draft/CFB/human circles.

Micky: Those clips. Those wonderful clips. I’ve never seen a mock offer so much visual context to every single pick. It must have taken you forever. Why did you do it? Why track down and add those video clips of every player?

Thor: The clips are so valuable. I didn’t do them last year, but Rotoworld just redid their OS so we can embed Tweets now, so I got the videos in there. I try to get as much info as I can because the regular NFL fan doesn’t know these guys yet. These videos are so important, and they add context.

I hope it also gives back to Draft Twitter. There are a lot of people out there doing fabulous work. They do it because they love it, and they do great work with the video tweets, breaking the players down. I really like to get the tweets in there because it allows readers to get introduced to these guys on Draft Twitter. So it’s a way for the reader to look at the player, sure, but it’s also a way for them to be introduced to these draft analysts on Twitter and see that it’s someone they should check out.

You know how sometimes you accidentally ask a question in such a way, you are leading them toward the “right” answer? The answer you were expecting, anyway. I was expecting Thor to talk about how he did all this extra work for the reader, and he loves it, and sure. It’s true. But I was legitimately surprised and impressed with the second half of his answer, working to give back to Draft Twitter; looking to expose his readers to the analysts, enthusiasts, and personalities that form this online draft community.

In that spirit, I’ll also go ahead and list some of my favorite Draft Twitter (or NFL/draft-adjacent) follows.

@robstaton

@ArifHasanNFL

@CDonScouting

@rjwhite1

@MichelleBruton

@JReidNFL

@LateRoundQB

@BenjaminSolak

@HaleyOSomething

@LedyardNFLDraft

And for those of you who don’t already follow him, you better follow National Mock Drafts on Instagram. He is the undisputed GOAT.

Thor, thank you for allowing me to attack your mock. It was really great to learn about your process and to get a jump on the 2020 class. I feel infinitely more prepared right now than I did at this point last year for the 2019 Draft.