Nintendo’s latest IP, Splatoon, has undergone several gameplay-balancing updates since its initial release in May. One of the recurring updates has been to the scoring system used during the regional Splatfest events. As of this writing, popularity percentage has no multiplier, and the win percentage is multiplied by six. So far, that has spelled death for the more popular team for every Splatfest since the update… but only in America?

The results here are so bad, in fact, that a lot of players have taken to purposely choosing the side they believe is less popular in order to win. So why does the slanted x6 multiplier exist at all then, you may ask. Well apparently, this is a localized phenomenon, first brought to my attention on a Squidboards discussion. Let’s examine the data!

As this chart demonstrates, the less popular team has had landslide wins every Splatfest since the x6 update. Cars vs Planes had similar results, even without the x6 multiplier. Seems pretty clear that this x6 thing is no good!

But then enter Japan. Every single Splatfest prior to the update, the more popular team won, and since the update the less popular team has only won once. In fact, generally speaking, regardless of the popularity gap in the teams, the difference in win percentage has remained within the 45%-55% range. But maybe Japan is just an oddity?

Apparently popularity isn’t the death knell we were lead to believe. As the preceding chart shows, popularity made little difference in deciding which team won the Europe and Oceania Splatfests, and in fact the more popular team has won both Splatfests since the x6 win multiplier update.

So what accounts for the horrendously lopsided results in America? I did a little research and came across a few possibilities:

Veteran Players Slant the Odds

“At this point, I feel like the trend of the less popular side winning NA Splatfests may have become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” commented one user on a Squidboards thread. “We had a few Splatfests in which the less popular side won, people got it into their heads that the less popular side would tend to have an advantage in wins, and now the people who are in it for the snails (that is, the veteran players) tend to opt for the less popular team on purpose, thus creating the advantage through their own actions.”

This certainly seems to complement the data, since we don’t see this phenomenon happening in countries that haven’t experienced the huge popularity and win percentage gap encountered in both the Cars vs Planes and Pirates vs Ninjas Splatfests. But what that means is that we’re doing this to ourselves, and the only way to stop the trend is for the high-level players to stop choosing based on which side they think will win. I don’t think a change.org petition will suffice.

Skewed Matchmaking Odds

“If [the more popular team] has a lot more players, this probably means it has more bad players,” speculated one Redditor. “Combined with [the more popular team] getting matched against itself, it means the odds of a [less popular] team getting matched against a good [more popular] team go down. It also means people on [the more popular team] have a more difficult time finding skilled players to squad with and continue winning.”

Though this doesn’t seem to effect the Splatfest results in other countries, if you combine this scenario with the aforementioned predilection of veteran players to choose the less popular team, you’ve got quite a pickle.

Splatfest Themes are Slanted in Kid-appeal

“The LP choice is often not as popular because it doesn’t appeal to younger players as much as the MP choice (hence why it’s “less popular”). Younger players (i.e. little kids) are, on average, much less skilled and experienced at Splatoon as older players, but far more numerous,” a user suggested on a GameFAQs thread. “The overall impact on splatfests are that the least popular team has a higher ratio of skilled/non-skilled players, making the overall team stronger and more likely to win the ‘Victory’ portion of the splatfest. This effect was perhaps most noticeable in the Ninjas vs Pirates splatfest, where almost every little kid thinks ninjas are cooler than pirates. Older players, meanwhile, are more evenly split and so are likely to go either way.”

I’m not convinced this has a huge effect, as most Splatfest themes aren’t inherently split by age, which the same user admits later in their post. However, I do agree that “Marshmallows vs Hotdogs” and “Pirates vs Ninjas” are going to be more skewed by age than, say, “Grasshoppers vs Ants” or “North Pole vs South Pole” used in other regions (seriously, who’s coming up with these?).

“Mirror Match Fatigue”

“Players who know about Splatfest and want those Sea Snails will try to play until they reach the rank of Queen/King. There is no concrete, in-game incentive to continue playing after that rank is reached,” said the same GameFAQs user quoted earlier. “The only incentive is through the personal satisfaction of playing, but a person’s satisfaction with playing is often affected by (i) how successful they are at winning each match, and (ii) how much they think they’re contributing to the final splatfest tally. A person on the MP team will be more likely to play mirror-matches, which has the following effects:

They reach Queen/King after playing fewer matches that ‘count’ toward the splatfest than the LP team.

They reach the point where the only incentive to play is personal satisfaction after fewer meaningful matches than the LP team.

Mirror matches played after Queen/King is reached may significantly reduce their personal satisfaction with playing, making them more likely to quit earlier.

If the MP team has lots of inexperienced players, the MP Queens/Kings might lose more often due to their inexperienced teammates, which further serves to reduce their personal satisfaction with playing, and making them more likely to quit earlier.

“The net effect is that skilled players on both teams start the splatfest with a lot of enthusiasm, but the skilled players on the MP team will, on average, play fewer matches that ‘count’ before quitting due to loss of enthusiasm than the LP team will. Meaning that the skilled players on the LP team have a larger impact than the skilled players on the MP team.”

Again, as demonstrated by Splatfest results in other countries, this argument in and of itself doesn’t account for the losing streak of the more popular teams, but it is another variable to consider.

Of all the factors mentioned, the first — that skilled players purposely choosing the less popular side — seems to be the only one that explains why the North American Splatfests have been following this trend. It also explains why a x6 multiplier actually makes some sense, outside of this phenomenon at least.

But would reverting the multiplier to an older standard actually change anything? If it would keep skilled players from choosing the less popular side, then perhaps. But not strictly according to the numbers from past Splatfests, as the following post by a Squidboards user demonstrates, using the Burgers vs Pizza Splatfest as a point of reference:

“If anyone’s curious, I did the math, and under other win multipliers, the results would’ve been as follows. The first number is always Team Burger, and the second number is always Team Pizza:

x1 multiplier: 93-107 (Team Pizza wins)

x2 multiplier: 149-151 (Team Pizza wins)

x3 multiplier: 205-195 (Team Burger wins)

x4 multiplier: 261-239 (Team Burger wins)

x5 multiplier: 317-283 (Team Burger wins)

In order to force a tie, the multiplier has to be x13/6, or roughly x2.1666667. Both sides would have a point total of about 158.3333333.”

Of course, as the high-level players complete their gear sets to their liking, there won’t be as much incentive to choose the winning team based solely on Super Sea Snails awarded, so maybe this whole thing will fizzle out anyway. Or maybe we should just go with the change.org petition.