TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 06: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Cody Ceci (5) collides with Toronto Maple Leafs Center John Tavares (91) during the regular season NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 6, 2018 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Jeff Chevrier/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed right shot defenceman, Cody Ceci, to a 1 year, $4.5M contract to begin this season. Question is, on money like that, is he really a top-4 defenceman?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a completely different team heading into 2019-20 than they were mere months ago. This is probably the largest turnover of names and numbers on Leaf jerseys that we have seen in a very long time.

Perhaps the most exciting aspect is that many of these names aren’t merely depth pieces and likely will play a very important role in the Toronto Maple Leafs coming season.

One of the more contentious names to be added to the list is that of former Ottawa Senator defenceman, Cody Ceci. Ceci was to the Ottawa Senators what Nikita Zaitsev was to the Maple Leafs, the poster boy for defensive inadequacy. The difference between the two being, the Ottawa Senators were largely an inadequate team last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs were not.

Before beginning any Cody Ceci support, I must first state why he has the negative reputation he has. Cody Ceci is, by almost all statistical analysis, a very poor defenceman. It is undeniable that when Cody Ceci is on the ice his team is outshot, out-chanced and out-scored. This is not only true in relation to the league but also in relation to his teammates. The scariest of all these stats is that Cody Ceci was the worst defenceman in the entire NHL in chances against per 60. In short, the Ottawa Senators were a better team with almost any of their other defenceman on the ice that wasn’t Cody Ceci.

It is on these numbers that the basis of the anti-Ceci comments exist. These numbers alone provide an extremely sound reason as to why Cody Ceci is not the kind of defensive defenceman the Toronto Maple Leafs need. However, there are reasons for Leafs fans to find some optimism.

If you are like me, and flat out refuse to write-off anyone who joins your team until they show how poor they are in your team’s jersey, here are some positives to look at.

Ceci’s History

One thing you notice when looking over Cody Ceci’s career is that he has been horribly mismanaged. Following his draft +1 year in the OHL, Ceci made the jump to pro with Ottawa’s farm team, the Binghamton Devils for a very short stint before his call up to the Sens.

Instantly, Ceci was thrust into a top-four role partnering with an aged Chris Phillips. Throughout the next few years Ceci, a defenceman playing top-four minutes, would be paired with a raft of borderline or aging NHLers in Jared Cowen, Patrick Weircioch, Dion Phaneuf, Mark Borowiecki and most recently, Maxime Lajoie.

It would be fair to say that if Cody Ceci were to be paired with any of the left shot defenceman on the Toronto Maple Leafs, he would be playing alongside the most talented defenceman he has ever paired with in the NHL (at the point in their career he is paired with them).

The Right Side

The next cause for optimism is that thanks to HockeyViz’s charts, there is evidence that whilst Ottawa get shelled when Ceci is on the ice, they conceded less shots down the right side. Considering Ceci was exclusively used against top competition last season, this can be cause for some optimism.

Given an entirely better team around him, there is hope that his shot suppression down his side of this ice can be useful for the Leafs.

Thanks to HockeyViz (paid subscription) I was also able to use this chart below to demonstrate Ceci’s importance on the PK. The green sections show locations where Ottawa concede less than league average shots from with the pink denoting areas where they concede a heavy number of shots. As is evident, while Ottawa were one of the worst penalty killing teams in the NHL last season, they were very good at limiting shots from the front of the net when Ceci was on the ice.

Dubas’ Comments

Kyle Dubas made some key comments following the trade and signing of Cody Ceci to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The first is that Ceci’s usage will be different to than in Ottawa, likely reduced minutes with much easier opposition and a better partner (more important than who you play, is who you play with).

While anyone on the Leafs is going to represent a large upgrade of a defensive partner, Ceci isn’t, however, ready to be partnered with Reilly,or Barrie.

As you can see in the figure below, Ron Hainsey who was previously partnered with Reilly, has far more impressive zone denial numbers than Ceci over the past 3 years.

However, the second comment Dubas made, was that the Toronto Maple Leafs liked a lot of what they saw in Cody Ceci back when Ottawa made their cup run. I pulled Ceci’s single season numbers from 2016-17 (below), his zone denial numbers were far more impressive. As Dubas alluded, when on a more successful team, Cody Ceci can be a much better player.

Conclusion

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed what is a rather expensive deal at $4.5M for Cody Ceci. Ceci does has the pedigree to be an impactful NHLer and while last season was a poor defensive one, he had a career year in point production.

I would be remiss to ignore Ceci’s horrendous statistical defensive numbers and on that alone completely understand any reluctance towards getting excited about him.

I do encourage all us Toronto Maple Leaf fans, however, to hold judgement and place reserved belief in a player who has been poorly mismanaged up until this date.

Now, sign that contract Mitch!