On November 6, 1999, 17th-ranked Purdue dropped a nail-biter to No. 10 Wisconsin, 28-21. The Boilermakers’ Drew Brees threw for 350 yards, but Ron Dayne kept chugging toward the Heisman.

Purdue was in the middle of a brutal run. The Boilermakers had beaten No. 16 (at the time) Notre Dame and Nick Saban’s fifth-ranked Michigan State, but had lost to No. 4 Michigan, No. 21 Ohio State, and No. 2 Penn State. They were solid despite their 6-4 record, and AP voters acknowledged it, dropping them to only 22nd.

Until 2018, that was the last time a four-loss team had been ranked in the top 25 entering Week 12.

In 2018, there are two AP-ranked 6-4 teams.

Northwestern crept in after clinching the Big Ten West, and Mississippi State, with losses to the current No. 1, 10, 15, and 20 teams, dropped only to 25th following a loss at Alabama.

In addition, for the first time since 2009, there is a two-loss team from a Group of 5 conference (8-2 Boise State) in the AP Top 25 this early in the season.

This has been a strange year, and you can tell by simply looking at the records of ranked teams.

There are two two-loss teams in the Power 5, down from 10 at this time last year.

A few of the two-lossers migrated upward and lost just once — there are six one-loss P5s compared to three last year — but a lot migrated downward. There are eight three-loss P5 teams in the AP (we’d averaged 4.2 over the rest of the last decade), plus the four-lossers.

And after that, there was still room for Boise State.

This year’s CFP race appears one-sided, and with three weeks to go, there aren’t many games that could legitimately impact the title race. That’s boring.

But it’s some consolation that all of this second-tier chaos has created a really interesting battle for the remaining New Year’s Six bowl bids.

In Jason Kirk’s most recent bowl projections, he had the following matchups projected in the NY6 outside of the obvious-at-the-moment playoff pairings (Alabama vs. Michigan, Clemson vs. Notre Dame):

Sugar (New Orleans): Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Rose (Pasadena, CA): Ohio State vs. Washington State

Peach (Atlanta): Florida vs. UCF

Fiesta (Glendale, AZ): LSU vs. West Virginia

There’s little to complain about here. Oklahoma-Georgia is a rematch of last year’s most gorgeous football game, Ohio State-Washington State could feature 140 pass attempts (that’s only a slight exaggeration), Florida-UCF is hilarious, and LSU and WVU fans should hang out as frequently as possible.

So let’s look at who’s most likely to be atop the non-playoff tier in three more weeks. I’ll list them in what I perceive to be their safeness for landing an NY6 (or better) bowl.

This isn’t necessarily every team in the running — Northwestern or Pitt could win Power 5 conference auto-bids, for one thing. Rankings below are current AP rankings, since CFP rankings aren’t out yet.

No. 5 Georgia (9-1)

You figure the Dawgs are safe for an NY6 bid. They have two relative cakewalks between now and the SEC title game against Alabama (S&P+ says they have only an 8 percent chance of losing to either UMass or Georgia Tech), and if they beat Bama (and S&P+ does give them a 38 percent chance), they’re in the CFP. But they’re very likely 11-2 and headed to the Sugar Bowl.

Projected regular season win total: 10.9

No. 9 Ohio State (9-1)

Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes still have a lot to gain, but not much to lose. After a semi-tricky trip to Maryland (win probability: 76 percent), they host a smoking hot Michigan, against whom they have only a 40 percent chance at the moment.

They still have a 30 percent chance of finishing 11-1 and needing a win over Northwestern to complete a CFP case.

A 10-2 Ohio State is in the Rose Bowl, which has a tie with the Big Ten. Even a 9-3 Ohio State could make it, unless Penn State somehow surges or Northwestern somehow knocks Michigan out of the CFP.

Projected regular season win total: 10.2

No. 10 LSU (8-2)

LSU was seventh in last week’s CFP rankings and has, per S&P+, faced the hardest schedule in the country. There’s not a realistic path to the playoff, but they’ve likely got a Peach or Fiesta bid if they win out, and they might even if they lose at Texas A&M (win probability: 47 percent).

Projected regular season win total: 9.5

No. 6 Oklahoma (9-1) and No. 7 West Virginia (8-1)

The Big 12’s two remaining CFP contenders still have to face each other, maybe even twice. Fall to three losses, and you might be out of the NY6.

Oklahoma plays Kansas on Saturday (S&P+ win probability: 99 percent) before heading to Morgantown on November 23 (65 percent).

WVU has to go to Stillwater to take on an Oklahoma State that beat Texas and nearly beat Oklahoma in the last three weeks, getting only a 55 percent chance despite a No. 12 S&P+ ranking. Win that, and you have to beat Oklahoma. Beat Oklahoma ... and you might have to beat Oklahoma again in the Big 12 title game.

Still, as long as the Mountaineers win in Stillwater, their NY6 odds are solid. OU’s are even better. The Big 12 champ is at least in the Sugar, while a two-loss Big 12 team gets a NY6 spot too, probably the Peach or Fiesta.

Projected regular season win total: OU 10.6, WVU 8.9 (with only 11 games)

No. 8 Washington State (9-1)

If the Cougars win out, they’ll be in the Rose or maybe even the CFP, with help.

But they have to beat Washington just to win the Pac-12 North. They haven’t done that since 2012, and S&P+ says it’s a coin flip (Wazzu by 0.3). And if they win, they might have another tossup against Utah in the Pac-12 title game.

A bad loss to Washington or any loss to a team like Arizona State in the Pac-12 title game (or Arizona this coming weekend) could knock Wazzu far down in the CFP rankings, and the Cougs might need some help holding onto an NY6 bid.

Projected regular season win total: 10.3

No. 15 Florida (7-3)

Florida was 15th in last week’s CFP rankings and should rise to at least 13th, thanks to NC State’s loss to Wake Forest and Kentucky’s blowout loss to Tennessee. That puts the Gators right on the edge of NY6dom.

And with likely wins over Idaho (90 percent win probability) and Florida State (74 percent), the Gators are well-positioned for a Peach/Fiesta bid if a team like Syracuse or maybe West Virginia loses.

Projected regular season win total: 8.6

No. 11 UCF (9-0), No. 14 Utah State (9-1), No. 19 Cincinnati (9-1), and No. 23 Boise State (8-2)

This would be a great year for the CFP committee to give two teams from the Group of 5 a bid. In S&P+, UCF remains seventh, and the Mountain West champion (if it’s either Utah State or Fresno State) will likely end up in the S&P+ top 12 as well.

But considering Utah State wasn’t even ranked by the committee last week despite being the most purely dominant G5 team (since losing at Michigan State in Week 1, they’ve outscored nine opponents by an average of 54-20), that won’t happen.

That leaves us with a fascinating race for the G5’s New Year’s Six auto-bid, at least if UCF drops a game. And between this week’s visit from Cincinnati (73 percent win probability) and a trip to USF (76 percent), there’s a 45 percent chance the Knights lose before the AAC title game.

Saturday’s Cincy-UCF winner will have a very good chance of securing the NY6 bid, but a Boise State-Utah State winner (win probability: USU 61 percent) that beats a still-strong Fresno in the MWC title game would have a résumé comparable to a 12-1 Cincinnati’s.

Projected regular season win total: 10.5 (out of 11 games) for UCF, 10.6 for USU, 10.2 for Cincy, and 9.2 for BSU.

No. 12 Syracuse (8-2)

Syracuse and LSU are your only two-loss P5 teams. You predicted that at the beginning of the year, right?

Here’s all you can say about Dino Babers’ Orange: if they win, they’re in the Peach or Fiesta.

Syracuse’s final two games are against Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium and at Boston College. S&P+ gives the Orange a 22 percent chance against the Irish and 47 against the Eagles. They are more likely to go 0-2 in these games (41 percent) than 2-0 (10 percent).

Losing close to ND but winning at BC could make Cuse an interesting NY6 bubble team, though.

Projected regular season win total: 8.7

No. 13 Texas (7-3) and No. 18 Iowa State (6-3)

Tom Herman’s Longhorns and Matt Campbell’s Cyclones can spoil the Big 12 race. UT beat the Sooners, and ISU beat the Mountaineers, and both remain only a game back in the Big 12 race.

The winner of this week’s game in Austin could slip into the Big 12 title game, depending on who wins OU-WVU I. (If OU wins, then a 7-2 Iowa State would win the tie-breaker over WVU, and if WVU wins, 7-2 UT would win the tie-breaker over OU.)

So these teams have paths to the Sugar: make the conference title game thanks to tie-breaker help, then win the Big 12. But if the UT-ISU winner doesn’t make the title game, it probably misses the NY6.

Projected regular season win total: 8.4 for UT and 8.3 for ISU

No. 16 Penn State (7-3)

PSU fell from 14th to 20th in the CFP rankings after last week’s blowout loss at Michigan. That probably means the Nittany Lions are on the outside, but they have likely wins ahead (96 percent win probability at Rutgers, 80 percent at home against Maryland). So if chaos ensues, a 9-3 PSU’s odds go up, especially if these next two games are blowouts.

Projected regular season win total: 8.8

No. 20 Kentucky (7-3)

Sadly, Mark Stoops’ Wildcats need NY6 help. They followed their loss to Georgia with a dud at Tennessee, and even if they get to 9-3, they’ll probably have fallen too far.

Projected regular season win total: 8.5 for UK

No. 17 Washington (7-3) and No. 21 Utah (7-3), plus, technically, unranked Arizona State (6-4) and Arizona (5-5)

Technically still in the Pac-12 race and therefore have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Washington is in the Pac-12 Championship if it beats Oregon State (98 percent chance) and Washington State (49 percent), and whoever emerges from the South muck could win the Pac-12 title game.

But only Washington was ranked by the CFP committee last week, and none is sniffing an NY6 bid without a Pac-12 title.

Projected regular season win total: 8.6 for Utah, 8.5 for UW, 7.0 for Arizona State, 5.7 for Arizona.