Paul Manafort is extremely under investigation. On Tuesday morning, CNN reported that the FBI had sought and secured a secretive order from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court to wiretap Manafort's phone. The monitoring went on both before and after the 2016 election, including in a timeframe when Manafort was known to hop on the phone with his one-time boss—raising the possibility Trump may have been caught up in the surveillance, though it is unclear if that was the case.

According to three sources CNN spoke with, "some of the intelligence collected includes communications that sparked concerns among investigators that Manafort had encouraged the Russians to help with the campaign." Two, however, warned the evidence is inconclusive.

What's certainly the case is that the FBI, backed by the Justice Department, felt it had ample evidence to pursue the warrant based on what they already knew about Manafort and his dealings. The surveillance first began in 2014, well before the election or The Age of Trump, with the FBI's investigation into Manafort's work on behalf of Ukraine's former ruling party. Eventually, we would learn that Manafort was paid at least $17 million to work with the party of Kremlin-backed former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. A ledger that popped up in Ukraine last year also appeared to detail payments.

The surveillance eventually ended at some point last year "due to lack of evidence," CNN reports. But the FBI applied for a new warrant and received one that extended at least into early this year, and the surveillance picked up again.

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That second warrant was linked to the Justice Department investigation into ties between Trump campaign associates—Manafort was once the campaign chairman—and Russian officials. The warrant would have needed the approval of top brass at both the FBI and DOJ. In theory, it's difficult to secure a FISA warrant, particularly against an American citizen—though that's debated—and the FBI would need to have shown "suspicion that the subject of the warrant may be acting as an agent of a foreign power." It's not the first such FISA warrant the FBI has secured to monitor a member of Trumpworld: They also got one to keep tabs on Carter Page, the former campaign foreign policy adviser who knows his way around Moscow.

At the quickest glance, the news that the Obama-era federal government tapped Manafort's phone and Trump's voice may be on heard on the wire seems to corroborate Trump's claim that "Obama had my 'wires tapped' in Trump Tower." Trump tweeted that entirely without evidence, and this news still does not provide any: the FBI tapped Manafort's phones after securing a warrant as part of a formal investigation by the Justice Department.

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Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2017

That is miles away from the president ordering the surveillance of a political opponent, presumably without a warrant—an egregious abuse of power and possibly a felony. That distinction may very well be lost on Trump. He struggles to digest the idea that federal law enforcement should operate independently of the president's will. Since Manafort has a residence at Trump Tower, however, it does raise the possibility the federal government conducted surveillance there. But again, that is very far removed from the president's claim—yet his allies have already begun spinning it. It is also not clear whether or not Manafort's unit inside Trump Tower was even bugged at all.

It's unclear when exactly the surveillance kicked back into gear, but CNN reports Manafort managed to recapture the FBI's attention when he was caught on intercepted communications with "Russian operatives." (Here it would seem the Russian operatives were under surveillance and Manafort was caught in the net, much like Trump could have been caught in a similar net set for him.) The FBI also caught chatter among the Russians themselves that turned their attention back to Manafort. While the exact timeline is unconfirmed, a source told CNN the FBI was not listening in June 2016, when Manafort joined a meeting at Trump Tower organized by Donald Trump, Jr., with an intriguing ensemble of characters, including a Kremlin-connected lawyer promising dirt on Hillary Clinton. Whatever the FBI did find has been turned over to Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigators.

Manafort has denied ever "knowingly" communicating with Russian intelligence operatives during the election, and denied participating in Russia's efforts to "undermine the interests of the United States." But he has consistently been at or near the center of the Justice Department investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and whether Trump associates colluded in those efforts. Even before Robert Mueller took the reins as special counsel, the FBI raided Manafort's storage facility. After Mueller took charge, the FBI conducted a pre-dawn raid of Manafort's Alexandria, Virginia, house, where they seized documents and copied computer files.



That's part of a scorched-earth strategy on Mueller's part, detailed in The New York Times Tuesday. According to that report, "Manafort is under investigation for possible violations of tax laws, money-laundering prohibitions and requirements to disclose foreign lobbying." After picking the lock on Manafort's front door while he was in bed and then raiding his home—even taking photos of his pricey suits—Mueller's agents had another surprise for Manafort. Apparently, Mueller's prosecutors then promptly told the former Trump campaign chair that they planned to indict him. The strategy is "shock and awe," in the Times' assessment, and one attorney quoted described how "it’s important early on to strike terror in the hearts of people in Washington." So far, they seem to have found some success.

Jack Holmes Politics Editor Jack Holmes is the Politics Editor at Esquire, where he writes daily and edits the Politics Blog with Charles P Pierce.

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