34 Pages Posted: 16 Apr 2013 Last revised: 24 Jul 2014

Date Written: July 23, 2014

Abstract

Almost without exception, law professors dismissed the possibility that the Patient Protection and Affordable Act Act ("PPACA") might be unconstitutional -- but something went wrong on the way to the courthouse. What explains the epic failure of law professors to accurately predict how Article III judges would handle the case? After considering three possible defenses/justifications, this essay identifies five factors that help explain the erroneous predictions of our nation’s elite law professors, who were badly wrong, but never in doubt.