This week’s poll paints a picture of an electorate holding its breath. Overall, the parties are roughly where they were a week ago — but with the Harper government’s budget now in play, we expect to see Canadians become more engaged with the contest in the coming month. The race, in other words, starts now.

The last six months have seen the Liberals in a gentle but steady slide, still well within reach of the top spot. The Conservatives have enjoyed a recovery fuelled by security and culture issues — but we’ve seen those issues lose traction in recent weeks, suggesting that they can’t hold the government up for long in the face of much deeper concerns about the economy and the nation’s overall direction.

The key to the Conservatives’ ability to hang on to this narrow lead appears to be its advantage in messaging — its superior communication of core values and plans, buttressed by the power of advertising and publicity paid for by the public and by the party itself.

Thomas Mulcair is back the race and is now much better positioned than his predecessor was at this stage in the 2011 campaign. But neither Mulcair nor Justin Trudeau has been able to grab much podium time away from Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party.

Government announcements on the economy and the budget have captured a good deal of the public’s focus. The Duffy trial is not getting much voter attention yet and isn’t really a force at this time — although that may change. Both Mulcair and Trudeau are struggling to get their voices heard above the dominant Conservative messaging; both leaders suffer a polling deficit in terms of the clarity of their messages. The fact that Trudeau is seen as slightly more likely to have a better plan for the country is remarkable, given the trouble he’s had making a connection with voters outside his base.

None of this is surprising in the ‘phoney war’ phase of the pre-campaign, and we expect to start seeing the dial move in one direction or another as the budget’s effects start showing up in the polling. The Conservatives have the clear advantage out of the gate. Can they sustain it? We should get a better idea starting next week.

The government has made its balanced budget — accomplished largely through asset sales, a swollen EI surplus and spending cuts — the major theme of its fiscal message. Our issues analysis suggests that those outside the Conservative base are underwhelmed. Social programs such as health and pensions are now rising in importance again, and have joined jobs-and-growth as a top issue for the public. Social issues are much more important to women and Quebeckers, which suggests a growing challenge for the government.

There is also evidence that, while the environment is not a pinnacle issue, it’s still important to Canadians — particularly in British Columbia and Quebec — and the degree to which it was orphaned in the budget may have negative consequences for the government in the fall.

Finally, while the issue of ethics isn’t a high priority for Canadians right now, it has been rising slightly in importance, perhaps driven by the Duffy spectacle.

The dominant issue of the pre-campaign remains economic: restarting the economy and middle class progress. The New Democrats and Liberals have worked to portray the prime minister and his government as pandering to the affluent — but there is little evidence that they’ve convinced Canadians they have the cure for middle class malaise. On the other hand, they haven’t really begun to make that case. The big question mark hanging over Election 2015 is whether the New Democrats or Liberals can wrest the microphone away from the PM and deliver a clear economic message to the voting public.

Frank Graves is founder and president of EKOS Polling.

Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are April 15-21, 2015. In total, a random sample of 3,850 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.