After back-to-back disappointing performances, the Dallas Cowboys hope that traveling to New York to face the Jets is the perfect remedy to a frustrating two-game losing streak.

On paper, Sunday’s contest heavily favors the Cowboys. Coming into the game, the Cowboys rank fifth in Total Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), first in offense DVOA, 19th in defense DVOA and 27th in special teams DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Jets, on the other hand, rank 30th in Total DVOA, 31st in offense DVOA, 10th in defense DVOA and 11th in special teams DVOA.

The Jets’ rankings, especially on offense, are a bit eschewed by the fact that the team has been without its starting quarterback, Sam Darnold, since Week 1 due to mononucleosis. New York’s offensive line is largely a mess, but they’re more talented than what their DVOA suggests, as the team boasts a nice quartet of offensive talent between Darnold, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell.

Moreover, the Jets defense is plenty talented enough to take advantage of the Cowboys if they continue to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, drops and untimely penalties. Leonard Williams is an outstanding interior defensive lineman on the Jets, and he’s buoyed by top-five pick Quinnen Williams. In the secondary, Jamal Adams is the lifeblood and biggest playmaker on New York– someone who Dak Prescott must account for on every play.

All in all, this game may appear to be another blowout victory for the can-crushing Cowboys but don’t be fooled, this winless Jets team has enough to talent to give the Cowboys problems if they don’t play to their potential.

But the Cowboys are certainly the better coached and more talented team in this contest, and if both teams play their best, the Cowboys will come away with the victory, even on the road.

With that being said, it’s time to get bold, so let’s dive into a few predictions for Sunday’s matchup:

Cowboys hold Le’Veon Bell under 50 rushing yards

It’s no secret, the Cowboys run defense has struggled this season, as it is allowing the ninth-highest run success in the NFL, per Sharp Football Stats. Luckily for Dallas, the Jets offensive line may turn into the perfect remedy for Dallas’ run game woes.

New York’s offensive line has, honestly, been awful this year. Currently, the unit ranks 32nd in adjusted line yards, per Football Outsiders. Furthermore, the Jets RBs get stuffed (tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage) on an absurd 28% of their carries – the second-highest rate in the NFL, behind only the Bengals.

Thanks to the wizardry of Bell, the Jets running game actually ranks in the middle of the pack (16th) in ‘Power Success,’ which is the “percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer,” despite their abysmal blocking upfront.

Bell is one of the rare RBs who can produce even when his blocking upfront isn’t perfect. Bell’s patience, vision and quickness enable him to find success in bleak situations. In fact, despite ranking 31st among RBs in rushing yards and 43rd in run success rate, per Sharp Football Stats, Bell actually ranks ninth in avoided tackles (16) among RBs, per PFF.

Therefore, if the Cowboys don’t do a better job of staying under control in pursuit and coming to balance at the tackle point – looking at you, Leighton Vander Esch – then Bell can make the Cowboys defense pay.

When going against an RB who is as slippery as Bell, it’s paramount that all 11 bodies on defense are in constant pursuit of the ball carrier. If Bell makes a defender miss, there needs to be reinforcements to finish the job.

Exhibit C.



Antwaun Woods doesn't get enough credit for his short-area quickness. Quickly cross the C's face and uses a quick club-rip to beat the hands and win the edge. Nice COD to get horizontal after attacking vertically. pic.twitter.com/bXJwAy2JVP — John Owning (@JohnOwning) June 12, 2019

Antwaun Woods’ likely return to the lineup should be a big boost to Dallas’ run defense. Not only does it give team the option to employ a heavy interior front, where nose tackles Woods and Christian Covington are on the field at the same time, to stop the run, but it also prevents Dallas from needing to play Trysten Hill at nose tackle – a position where he’s struggled mightily while filling in for an injured Woods.

A bounce-back game from both Jaylon Smith and Vander Esch should enable the Cowboys to bottle up this poorly blocked run game.

Overall, the Cowboys defensive line takes advantage of New York’s struggling offensive line to stuff Bell routinely Sunday.

Cowboys defense generates five sacks, DeMarcus Lawrence gets two

While the Cowboys defensive line has struggled against the run, it’s actually done a good job rushing the passer, as the team ranks third in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate metric.

After facing one of the best offensive lines in football last week, the Cowboys defensive line should feast on the Jets upfront.

The Jets offensive line may be even worse in pass protection than it is run blocking, as they rank dead-last in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders. All in all, the New York line has given up 11 sacks, seven QB hits and 32 hurries on just 146 dropbacks, which is good for the third-worst pass-blocking efficiency in the NFL, per PFF.

Like most below-average offensive lines, the Jets struggle to pass off stunts and twists upfront, which plays right into the Cowboys’ hand, as they use stunts at the second-highest rate in the NFL, per PFF. Rod Marinelli loves to create pressure using the movement, angles and timing of stunts and twists.

#Cowboys have had a ton of success with this stunt this season, but they typically do it with 4 DL. This time, they add Jaylon Smith as a sort-of stand-up 3 tech.



Inside defenders cross and wrap around the edge while the DEs attack vertical for 2 steps before crashing inside. pic.twitter.com/04jseaqZ9L — John Owning (@JohnOwning) October 1, 2019

The Cowboys have one of the most creative stunt packages in the NFL, and you can be sure they will unleash it early and often throughout Sunday’s game.

In terms of one-on-one matchups, Dallas’ trio of productive pass rushers – DeMarcus Lawrence, Robert Quinn and Maliek Collins – should all have the upper hand.

Lawrence, in particular, is due for a dominating performance given the matchup.

During the first month of the season, New York positioned Brandon Shell as the team’s right tackle, but it didn’t go well, as Shell gave up a team-high 10 pressures in three games, per PFF. Shell’s poor footwork and inconsistent hands are the main culprit for his struggles.

In Week 5, however, the team opted to start rookie Chuma Edoga over Shell at right tackle but it didn’t get much better, as Edoga allowed two sacks and four total pressures against Philadelphia.

It’s unclear which one will get the start against Dallas, but Lawrence should be able to have a lot of success against either. Lawrence’s subtle footwork should able to manipulate either one enough to create multiple sack opportunities.

Like most weeks, Lawrence will also see a steady diet of double teams and chip blocks, but he should be able to feast on whichever right tackle the Jets decide to use Sunday.

Look for Lawrence to be particularly effective with his euro step cross chop and counter spin moves, as the Cowboys pass rush as a whole spends a lot of time in the Jets backfield.

Michael Gallup goes over 100 receiving yards and catches a TD

There has been a consistent theme for teams playing the Jets this season: attack cornerback Darryl Roberts.

On the season, Roberts has been targeted 34 times – 16 more than the next closest Jets defender (Brian Poole - 18 targets). On those 34 targets, Roberts has allowed 23 catches for 241 yards and three touchdowns while also hauling in one interception, per PFF.

Teams target Roberts, on average, once every 4.6 coverage snaps, which is the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Expect that trend to continue as Michael Gallup should see the lion’s share of his snaps opposite Roberts Sunday.

In terms of efficiency at the WR position, it doesn’t get much better than Gallup this year, as he leads the NFL in yards per route run (3.49) among WRs with at least 12 targets, per PFF, and it’s not particularly close. The difference between Gallup and Michael Thomas, who is second (2.95), is almost same difference between Thomas and Cooper Kupp (2.39), who is eighth.

If the last one was a dime, this is a dime plus 99 (Mario voice). Connor Williams was a tick late picking up the slanting DE, but Dak still places it perfectly to Michael Gallup, who does an excellent job with a burst to create the late separation to make the grab. #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/1pOa7yqQFU — John Owning (@JohnOwning) September 9, 2019

While flashing big-time ability last year, Gallup and Dak Prescott struggled to get on the same page, especially with the deep ball. The sample size is small, but that hasn’t been a problem this year, as Gallup as improved his reception percentage from 50 to 71.3 thus far this season.

What’s even more impressive is that Gallup is continually moving the chains with his receptions. He has already picked up more than half as many first downs this season (14) as he did all of 2018 (26).

Not only is Gallup’s route running improved, but he’s also stronger at the catch point and more dangerous after the catch. In fact, when healthy, Gallup is producing like a No. 1 WR despite being Dallas’ No. 2 behind Amari Cooper.

Overall, Gallup’s route running should create a few opportunities in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Moreover, Gallup should be able to bully Roberts at the catch point when Prescott inevitably sends a couple deep shots his way.

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Twitter: @JohnOwning