Feb 16, 2017

As Turkish leaders continue to make hawkish noises about Raqqa, a high-level delegation seeking to persuade the United States to exclude the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from a planned offensive to liberate the city from the Islamic State left Washington empty-handed, Al-Monitor has learned.

The team headed by Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Umit Yalcin and comprising the heads of the ministry’s US, Iraq and Syria departments along with senior members of the Turkish Armed Forces and the national spy agency MIT, pushed their case against the YPG in separate meetings on Feb. 13-14 with US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Tom Shannon, former national security adviser Michael Flynn before he resigned and CENTCOM commander Gen. Joseph L. Votel, among others.

Sources familiar with the substance of the exchanges told Al-Monitor on strict condition of anonymity that Turkish demands that the United States drop its plans to free Raqqa with the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), labeling them terrorists, elicited a frosty response. The stiffest demurral came from Votel, the sources said. “He explained his position like a soldier would, it was quite tough,” one source observed. During the encounter, CENTCOM officials reminded the Turks that having talked about putting Turkish boots on the ground for Raqqa as an alternative to the YPG, the Turkish General Staff had yet to present a blueprint detailing Turkey's operational plans and precise contribution. The Turks got their most sympathetic hearing in the White House, the sources added, declining to elaborate.

The meetings came as the administration of Donald Trump mulls plans for action against IS in Syria. They include a proposal left over from the previous administration for the Pentagon to provide heavy weapons to the SDF under a presidential dispensation that permits the Defense Department to arm and train nonstate military actors. That plan is currently being refined, not “tossed,” as reported earlier by The Washington Post, a senior administration source told Al-Monitor on condition that he not be identified by name. Another administration official who also sought anonymity corroborated this version of events.

Turkey is bent on preventing the train-and-equip order for the YPG from getting signed. But this week’s meetings between US and Turkish officials suggest that the battle may have been lost. What are the likely consequences? Will Turkey deliver on earlier threats to rescind coalition access to the Incirlik Air Base? Probably not. “That would be too radical a move,” a Turkish official explained on condition of anonymity. A more likely outcome is that Turkey would escalate attacks against the YPG in areas where American special forces embedded with them would not be at risk of getting struck. But what if they accidentally did?