for an update on typhoon parma(pepeng) and typhoon melor, CLICK HERE

While Typhoon Parma made its way through the Philippines, it took out crops and infrastructure and produced damage in some of the towns and cities, but so far only 3 have been reported killed. Some reports around the world claim that the storm is moving toward Taiwan. Taiwan has even issued warnings and made evacuations. But, I’m not so sure that Parma is done with the Philippines. A look at the Western Pacific Water Vapor Imagery Loop shows appears to show an eye reforming. The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been all over the place, indicating that there are lots and lots of variables. Previously, we’ve seen the long term track toward Taiwan, then to the northeast, then having it become quasi stationary just northwest of Manila, then having it move north-northwest before looping back around in the wake of Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) and out to the northeast.

The new forecast reflects the fact that the storm has moved offshore to the north of the island and has been moving west or west northwest very slowly. The idea is that the storm will meander offshore of the northwestern coast of the Philippines. The boys at the JTWC acknowledge that the forecast is very difficult and acknowledge that there are other plausible scenarios. Its extremely complicated because there is a typhoon to the east, a storm to the west, a ridge to the north and somewhere in between, there is a trof. While I have no idea where its going to go, I think that it is entirely possible that the Philippines is not done with Parma. If you look at the US Navy NOGAPS model, you see that at 18Z Oct 5,the storm is centered just west of Manila…offshore. That would bring rain to the islands. The GFS has the storm right over Manila at the same time. The NOGAPS brings Parma right over the top of Manila at 18Z on the 6th.

There are other solutions out there but most of them are not too good for the Philippines. In fact, if the GFS solution verifies, which is probably won’t completely, then Japan would get brushed by Typhoon Melor and then 3 days later get brushed by Typhoon Parma..both running right along the mouth of Tokyo Bay. But…these storms have not been playing ball and all options remain on the table.

WDPN33 PGTW 040300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 26//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER IN THE

STRAIT OF LUZON AND HAS STARTED TO REGAIN ORGANIZATION AS SEEN IN

RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. A 032224Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE

SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL WITH GOOD STRUCTURE AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER

WATER TO THE NORTHWEST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING

ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)

CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.

3. FORECAST REASONING

A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE FORECAST HAS THE STR

OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE ON

THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72 AND TRACKING THE 19W INTO THE SOUTH CHINA

SEA.

B. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON

STRAIT AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, LOCATED SOUTH OF JAPAN, ERODES

IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE TY 19W IN A VERY

WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE STR TO

THE NORTHEAST AND THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN

CHINA. DUE TO THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN

QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FACILITATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER

WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-MOVING SYSTEMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS

VERY ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72. THIS IS

INDICATIVE OF A SYSTEM WITH WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES THAT IS

EXPECTED TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT SHOW

THIS MOTION IS GFS, WHICH SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING OF THE STR TO THE

EAST AND A SHARP TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND TY

20W. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS STILL A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TRACK,

ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TY

20W FROM THE EAST, BUT BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY AS 19W CONTINUES TO

TRACK NORTHWESTWARD.

C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AFTER

THE PASSAGE OF A ZONAL TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDES. AS IT BUILDS, IT

WILL IMPART A WEAK INFLUENCE ON 19W THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG THE SYSTEM

TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE

WEST, AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND NOT BE ABLE TO

SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING TYPHOON, AND INTENSITY WILL START TO SLOWLY

DECREASE IN THE LATE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT

AFTER TAU 72 AS TO THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF, TCLPS AND

JGSM TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EGRR AND

GFDN TAKE THE STORM ON A WESTERLY TRACK. NOGAPS KEEPS THE SYSTEM

QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.//