How The IceCaps Blew A 3-Goal Lead–And Won

On Saturday night, the St. John’s IceCaps led the Providence Bruins 3-0 just 17 minutes into the game. It the had makings of a blow-out as all four IceCaps lines were creating offence through shooting and possession-maintaining and -driving plays.

However, the P-Bruins out-shot the IceCaps 24-14 in the final two periods, and were able to claw their way into overtime. Danton Heinen stripped Nikita Scherbak of the puck following a failed flat-footed entry attempt, resulting a short-handed marker for the P-Bruins. Shortly after hitting the post on an open net, Tommy Cross unloaded a twine-finding bomb. With four minutes remaining, Heinen tied the game with a one-timer.

While the IceCaps would go on to win in the shootout thanks to Charlie Lindgren and Nikita Scherbak, this game was yet another reminder that all is not well in St. John’s.

The article breaks the game into two parts: How the IceCaps blew the 3-0 lead and how they managed to sneak away with a win.

Behind The Collapse

After going up 3-0, the shots tilted in Providence’s favour. While Providence’s 5v5 shot attempt lead was merely four (27 – 23), they hit the net 20 times, compared St. John’s mere 15. Factor in Providence’s four shots on goal on two powerplay attempts and one shorthanded shot on goal, and it’s clear they established territorial advantage after falling back 3-0.

The quality of these shots played an even larger role in Providence’s comeback.

St. John’s managed just one high-danger scoring chance after gaining a 3-0 lead, roughly 38 minutes of even-strength play. This scoring chance was a Bobby Farnham breakaway, shortly after Michael McCarron made it 3-0.

Meanwhile, Providence had three HD scoring chances in that same span and six medium-danger shots, compared to just three for St. John’s. MD scoring chances were three-to-one in Providence’s favour. Providence even saw greater success in low-danger areas, tallying 14 shots on goal (on 18 tries), while St. John’s had 11 (on 18 tries).

Another interesting area to examine is controlled exits and entries.

At first glance, Providence doesn’t look too far ahead of St. John’s. However, Providence successfully exited their zone with control 19 times, and without control just seven times, whereas St. John’s exited their zone 21 times with control, but without it a staggering 18 times. At the time of the 3-0 goal, St. John’s had more controlled exit attempts than uncontrolled, but finished with five more uncontrolled attempts than controlled. St. John’s also racked up 19 more uncontrolled attempts than Providence. They overwhelming opted for uncontrolled exits, despite being far more successful with controlled exits.

This means that St. John’s, while completing a greater number controlled exits, were throwing away possession far more often as the game wore on. This led to their overall larger amount of zone exits, both controlled and uncontrolled, successful and failed, but reduced their overall efficiency. This echos both the trend in shot attempts and shots on goal: They were spending lots of time defending.

Where the comparison becomes more troublesome is controlled entries. St. John’s was far more successful at controlled zone entries (75% vs 50%), but failed to adjust their game plan, instead relying on uncontrolled entries 45% of the time. This echos what I uncovered in the two-game series in Utica, but considering my lack of data I’ll withhold from calling it a trend.

An interesting link is that St. John’s was able to turn a controlled exit into a successful controlled entry on 38.1% of opportunities, whereas Providence did so 47.3% of the time. This could be caused a variety of factors. Inability to exit the zone with control could be a product of Providence’s overwhelming offence, St. John’s passive defence, and/or Lefebvre’s lack of in-game adjustment or structure. Extended periods of defending meant the IceCaps dumped the puck out of the zone in desperation. And when exiting with control, they often entered with a dump-in to change lines.

Essentially, the IceCaps blew a three-goal lead, at least in part, by either not playing well with the puck or not playing with it at all. They had too many wasted possessions by either turning the puck over or missing the net. Furthermore, they were unable to generate shots in MD and HD areas, unlike Providence.

Sneaking Away With The Win (And More Good News)

Three-on-three overtime solved nothing, meaning a shootout was in order.

Daniel Audette, who has been quietly effective this year, opened the shootout with a goal.

Charlie Lindgren stopped both attempts he faced, capping off yet another brilliant performance by the netminder. He stopped 31 of 32 5v5 shots faced, including five HD scoring chances and eight MD shots on goal. Overall, he saved 38 of 41 shots, including a last-second breakaway in overtime.

Nikita Scherbak won the shootout with a cheeky backhand that slid under the goaltender’s pad. It was certainly a relief for Scherbak, as his turnover resulted in the 3-1 goal, but that’s not to say he wasn’t effective.

Here’s a quick glance at who was generating 5v5 offence for the IceCaps:

For all the flack Scherbak got for his turnovers, he was the most effective IceCap skater at generating offence, tallying two shots on goal (three in all-situations) and racking up a team-leading eight shot assists (seven primary; six of which resulted in a shot on goal). Furthermore, Scherbak led the IceCaps in controlled exits with three and controlled entries with six.

Another name that stood out to me was Jeremy Gregoire. Gregoire’s skating has improved considerably, which has enabled him keep up with the pace of the AHL. While he had four shot attempts, only two made it on goal. That’s been a common trend throughout his professional career: Good at getting to the scoring areas, not good at turning it into scoring chances or shots on goal.

The trio of David Broll, Mark MacMillan, and Gregoire led the IceCaps with a 84.6 CF%, albeit with nearly all of their shifts starting in the OZ. They’ve been a bright spot on the IceCaps lately.

Finally, Brett Lernout is improving at a seemingly game-to-game basis. Saturday was arguably his best in an IceCaps uniform. He did a fair job preventing controlled entries (57%, behind only Tom Parisi), but where Lernout really shined in the offensive zone. Lernout led all defencemen with five shot attempts, three shots on goal, and four shot assists.

Having the confidence to shoot is a good step for Lernout, but having the confidence to open shooting lanes is the next necessary step. Lernout scored a fair number of goals in the WHL by receiving a pass along the boards, using a quick series of strides to walk out, and fire a powerful snap or wristshot on goal. Creating shooting lanes will allow him to start causing damage with his shot, whether that through scoring, creating rebounds, or forcing OZ faceoffs.

Lernout’s puck distribution continues to be hit or miss. For example, while he made two gorgeous breakout passes, he also iced the puck after a failed breakout pass three times. With that said, he attempted the second fewest uncontrolled exits after Ryan Johnston.

Conclusion

While Saturday’s game was far from ideal, from an individual standpoint, there’s lots to be happy about. Nikita Scherbak has been playing fantastic lately, Jacob de la Rose is showing offensive flashes, and Brett Lernout is progressing.

And there’s Charlie Lindgren: The IceCaps’ MVP, and arguably the AHL’s best goaltender.

The IceCaps currently sit fourth in the North Division with a 0.525 points percentage. The goals are slowly evaporating, as expected given their unsustainable shooting percentage. It peaked at 11.81%, and has dropped to 10.25%. Scherbak and Matteau, who were shooting at 30%+, have gone goalless in five straight as their SH% tumbles to 22.2%.