Select a region: {{ option }}

{{region.areWe}}.

Our projection is better than it was 5 days ago.

Our projection is worse than it was 5 days ago.

Complete picture Near future Daily

At the current contagion rate, we could overwhelm the health care system by

Trends change daily based on the efforts made by governments and citizens. You can see the evolution of the trend by comparing the current projection with the projection from 5 days ago, 10 days ago, and the one from {{region.labels[region.fixComparition]}}, when there were {{region.totals[region.fixComparition].toLocaleString()}} active cases.

Data updated 3 times daily from the Johns Hopkins CSSE repository and the NYT repository . Last day measured: {{region.lastDate}} .

Methodology

Health care system capacity. It is estimated that {{(ventilatorRate*10000/100).toLocaleString()}}% of cases require ventilators. We are defining the capacity of the health care system by the number of available ventilators. We currently have . When we reach {{region.healthCareLimitCalculated.toLocaleString()}} active cases, we will need {{(Math.round(region.healthCareLimitCalculated*ventilatorRate)).toLocaleString()}} . It may be noted that a big percentage of ventilators are normally in use for other types of patients, so the health care system might actually be overwhelmed much sooner.

Projection of active cases. This is what the future would look like if the contagion rate remained constant as it is today. However, the contagion rate itself varies as the result of efforts made by governments and citizens and it has its own trend, visible in the comparison with previous projections.

To calculate the projection, we take the average increase of the last {{daysForTrend}} days and project it into the future until we reach the point where {{(totalInfectionEstimate*10000/100).toLocaleString()}}% of the population has been infected (estimates for total infection vary from 40% to 80%). We linearly decrease the growth rate as more people get infected, and subtract the cases that are more than {{recoveryDays}} days old (average recovery time).

Long term trend. In the near future view you can see the long term trend curve. This is based on the variation of daily increases instead of the variation in the total number of cases. As a result, this curve is an early indicator of future trends, but it's also less reliable and subject to sudden changes. To make it a litttle bit more stable, we compare the average daily increase of the last 5 days with the average daily increase of the 5 days before those.

Issues/suggestions

You can open an issue in the Github site for this page if you think that the methodology can be improved or the data is incorrect.