Over the weekend, President Trump indefinitely postponed hiking tariffs on China with a pair of tweets writing, "I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1."

With no agreement and plenty still to be worked out, the announcement of pushing back the deadline for a trade deal seems to have little to do with substantial new progress towards an agreement. Instead, the president offered insight into his motivation for prolonging a trade stalemate in a different tweet:

President Xi of China has been very helpful in his support of my meeting with Kim Jong Un. The last thing China wants are large scale nuclear weapons right next door. Sanctions placed on the border by China and Russia have been very helpful. Great relationship with Chairman Kim! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 24, 2019



With his second summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, set for Feb. 27–28 in Vietnam, Trump is desperate to find some way to claim victory. To do that, or even achieve the roundly criticized un-victory of ending the Korean War — a goal far short of denuclearization — would require China’s support.

But China, North Korea’s supporter and neighbor, has an interest in Pyongyang beyond its role as a signatory to the armistice ending hostilities in 1953. Indeed, before each meeting with Trump, Kim has made a point of first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Beijing has every reason to worry that instability in North Korea would spill across the border into China. Indeed, one immediate consequence of regime change or even moderate opening up would be an exodus of refugees into China. In the long term, China has broader geopolitical worries: The vision of North Korea’s future offered by Trump is one heavy with American influence. That would bring the U.S. to China’s border, eroding a decades old buffer zone.

Trump, or at least his advisers, seem to understand that progress on North Korea cannot be made without China’s support. And that support, of course, is unlikely to be born out of hostile trade disputes and demands to essentially rewrite China’s economic model, which the Trump administration has made clear are goals of trade negotiations with Beijing.

Thus, instead of pursuing thorny negotiations or setting a new deadline that acts as a looming threat, Trump has settled for a different solution: backing out, at least temporarily, of the problem as he works on a deal with North Korea.