booker lonnegan.jpg

Newark Mayor Cory Booker, a Democrat, and former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, a Republican, are shown in these file photos.

(Star-Ledger file photos)

TRENTON — A new poll shows the race for U.S. Senate narrowing, but Democrat Cory Booker still has a big lead over Republican Steve Lonegan.

The Rutgers-Eagleton poll of 513 likely voters shows Booker, the Newark mayor, leading Lonegan, the conservative activist and former Bogota mayor, 58 percent to 36 percent. That 22-point lead is significantly lower than the 35-point lead Booker held in early September.

But the election is Wednesday.

“Here’s the key: if the Booker campaign can turn out urban voters and Democrats who say they will vote, he will be in the range we estimate,” said pollster David Redlawsk. “If Lonegan’s turnout operation is stronger and Booker’s base stays home thinking it is all wrapped up, then all bets are off.”

The poll shows that independent voters who paid attention to the debates between Booker and Lonegan go for Booker 59 percent to 37 percent. Independents who didn’t watch the debates are split between the two men, with 45 percent preferring Lonegan and 42 percent going for Booker.

“The debates presented a stark picture of the differences between the candidates, which appears to have led independents to prefer Booker,” Redlawsk said. “While the candidates came out swinging, Lonegan’s attacks bordered on the taboo, with his ‘floating dead bodies’ and ‘big black hole’ comments about Newark – reminiscent of the rhetoric that got him into hot water early in the campaign.Independents in particular dislike these kinds of attacks.”

The Rutgers-Eagleton poll paints a much different picture of a race than another poll released today that showed Booker leading Lonegan by just 10 points.

“Other recent polls showed a narrower lead for Booker, but voters we talked to seem to have moved back in his direction,” Redlawsk said.

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