What will make gas prices go down? More gas, says Premier John Horgan.

Jason Kenney’s threat to cut off oil and gas shipments to British Columbia is a revolting proposition for Metro Vancouver drivers already getting hosed at the gas pump.

If you think $1.70 a litre is bad now, can you imagine if the Alberta premier actually followed through on his bluster and turned off the taps for real?

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Fortunately, you don’t have to imagine too hard, because the impact of a full-out gas war with Kenney is outlined in documents filed in court by the B.C. government.

The John Horgan government is suing Kenney over his turn-off-the-taps law, arguing it’s unconstitutional.

As part of the lawsuit, the B.C. government filed a remarkable affidavit from Michael Rensing, director of the fuels branch in the B.C. Ministry of Energy, who lays out a clear description of where British Columbians get their gas, and what could happen if Kenney cuts us off.

Every day, British Columbians consume between 70,000 and 85,000 barrels of gasoline and between 55,000 and 70,000 barrels of diesel, Rensing wrote, noting just a fraction is refined in B.C.

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Most of B.C.’s fuel is pumped directly from refineries in Alberta through the Trans Mountain pipeline. And fuel produced locally at the Lower Mainland’s only refinery, in Burnaby, is made from Alberta crude oil, also pumped through the pipeline.

“Alberta therefore supplies, directly or indirectly, over 80 per cent of the gasoline and diesel used in British Columbia.”

The Parkland Refinery in Burnaby could produce additional fuel for the gas-thirsty Lower Mainland, but it can’t get enough crude oil. The pipeline is full, and the refinery is running at just 80-per-cent capacity.

Photo by Mark van Manen / PNG files

LISTEN: Mike Smyth and Rob Shaw break down the pipeline dispute between Alberta and B.C., analyze the comments of Premiers Jason Kenney and John Horgan, take look at the NDP government’s new labour bill and also blurt out massive spoilers about Game of Thrones and Avengers: Endgame.

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What a waste! If only the pipeline could be expanded, we could refine more gas locally. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

With British Columbia at the mercy of Alberta for our gas supply, B.C. would be hit hard if Kenney turned off the taps.

The Alberta premier has threatened to cut oil and gasoline shipments to punish B.C. for the Horgan government’s opposition to the pipeline expansion project.

Couldn’t we just bring in more gas from the United States or elsewhere? Unfortunately not, Rensing writes.

“There is inadequate infrastructure in place in British Columbia to transport, receive, store and then to distribute large quantities of refined fuels acquired from a market other than Alberta.”

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If Kenney turned off the taps, B.C.’s gas supply would be decimated, leading to fuel shortages and even bigger price spikes, Rensing wrote.

“Gasoline supplies can be exhausted quickly,” he wrote, noting even a 48-hour supply disruption could force some gas stations to close for business.

Even the possibility of a short-term supply glitch can drive up prices, he wrote, noting gas shot up 10 cents a litre last fall when a feared natural-gas shortage stoked supply worries at refineries that use natural gas in producing gasoline.

“Any reduction in supply of refined fuels will increase prices,” Rensing concludes.

Now before you start stockpiling jerry cans of gas in your backyard, keep this in mind: Kenney has said he will only use his turn-off-the-taps powers as a last resort in the pipeline fight. And many, if not most, legal experts think the Alberta law is unconstitutional and will be tossed out by the courts anyway.

But the B.C. government’s legal pleadings in the case make it plain that gasoline supply is one of the critical factors driving gasoline prices, and our supply is extremely tenuous.

Other gas-price factors listed by Rensing include “international market pricing, exchange rates, the cost of refining crude oil, the cost of transporting gasoline to retail outlets, federal and provincial taxes as well as political and social instability.”

Photo by Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press

The inclusion of provincial taxes in that list must make Horgan wince, since the B.C. premier has spent weeks insisting his government’s gas-tax hikes aren’t the problem.

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But conspicuously missing from the court pleadings is Horgan’s insistence that “price gouging” by greedy oil companies and fuel refiners is to blame for our gas-pump pain.

“We have seen the summer gas gouging start,” Horgan said of B.C.’s “ridiculously high” gas prices. “That’s not a tax question, that’s a gouging question.”

Strange, then, that gouging is not listed as a gas-price factor in his own government’s court case, while gas taxes are.

For Horgan’s critics, the legal skirmish shows the need for an expanded Trans Mountain pipeline.

“Our supply lines are very limited,” said Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson. “If we pick fights with Alberta, we’re looking for trouble.”

Horgan said he will ask Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to pump more refined fuel through the existing pipeline, purchased by the feds last year. But Wilkinson wonders if Trudeau has authority to do that.

“The premier seems to think that whoever owns the pipeline decides what goes into it, and that is just plain wrong,” Wilkinson said. “The people who determine the contents of the pipeline are the people who own the petroleum products.”

Wilkinson’s solution? Negotiate a deal with Kenney, Trudeau and the oil companies to secure more refined fuel for B.C. in an expanded pipeline.

For Horgan, still opposed to the pipeline expansion on environmental grounds, that may be too high a price to pay.

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