Catalonia’s pro-independence parties would increase their joint majority in parliament if there were a Catalan election, says the latest poll from the Catalan government’s Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). The survey published on Friday suggests that the ERC, JxCat and CUP parties would together win between 76 and 80 seats in the chamber, compared to the 70 they won in the last election in 2017.

There are a total of 135 seats in the Catalan parliament, with 68 seats needed for a majority. For the first time ever, pro-independence parties would surpass the majority of ballots with 51.7% of votes.

Despite a larger majority for the pro-independence parties, the survey also suggests that more people are against an independent Catalan state than for it. Some 47.9% said they do not want Catalonia to be independent compared to 43.7% who do, says the poll.

Socialists up, Ciudadanos down

Meanwhile, a new election would see gains for the Catalan Socialists (PSC). Affiliated to Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party currently governing Spain, PSC would see its number of seats go up from 17 to 24 or 25, ousting Ciutadans (Cs) as the main opposition.

In fact, the poll predicts that the unionist Cs party would lose more than half its current seats, dropping from 36 after it won the 2017 election to between 14 and 16, reflecting the major losses the party suffered in the recent Spanish general election.

Pro-independence parties first and second

Among the pro-independence parties, Esquerra Republicana (ERC), which is headed by jailed former vice president Oriol Junqueras, would win an election in Catalonia, increasing its number of seats from 32 to between 38 and 39.

Coming second would be exiled president Carles Puigdemont’s Junts per Catalunya (JxCat) party, which would drop from its current 34 seats to between 29 and 31, while the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP) would increase its seats from 4 to 9 or 10.

As for the remaining parties, left-wing Catalunya en Comú–Podem would increase its 8 seats to between 11 and 13, the unionist People’s Party would repeat its 4 seats and possibly gain one, while the far-right Vox party would enter parliament with up to 2 seats.