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Abruptly however the dynamic changed. There was Bill C-51 and the Liberals’ awkward “we hate it, but we’re voting for it” position. And there was also the supercharge of Rachel Notley and her explosive rout of Jim Prentice and the dynastic Alberta Tories.

Politics has its own chemistry. Notley’s win may have had little or nothing at all to do with the federal NDP. Alberta is its own place, as much as any other province, Newfoundland or Quebec or New Brunswick, is its own place. No province is a template for federal politics. Nonetheless, that radical upset in Alberta uplifted the fortunes of their federal cousins, and that of Mr. Mulcair in particular. It put “Tom Mulcair, PM? After Alberta, why not?” into people’s minds.

To a serious degree, for good or ill, the federal NDP is a hostage to the performance of the Alberta government.

So far — for Mr. Mulcair — so good. As with every turn of benign fortune there must always be a caution however. That caution has to do with the timing of Mr. Mulcair’s political windfall. A little closer to October 19th would have been nice.

Premier Notley leads a brand new government. Her administration is open to all the minor and major errors, the confusions and mischiefs that inexperience and the exultations of unexpected victory bring with them. She won at a hard time for the one industry that has made Alberta the economic and political powerhouse it is. There will be blunders and there will be strife. And in this case what happens in Alberta will emphatically not stay in Alberta.

How she performs will be of deep consequence for Thomas Mulcair. This is not fair perhaps. But fairness is not the measuring rod. It was not fair either than the NDP received so much of a boost from the her win. But both consequences are real.