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Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih on Saturday signalled a real supply gain approaching 1 million barrels a day after OPEC adopted a pact aimed at lifting output on Friday. He was seeking to reassure the market after several cartel members said the actual increase will only reach 700,000 because some nations are incapable of pumping more.

Brent crude, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, fell as much as US$1.81 to US$73.74 a barrel on Monday after Saudi Arabia’s pledge over the weekend to boost output, following an ambiguous OPEC pact and contradictory statements from other nations on Friday.

In contrast, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 29 cents at US$68.87 a barrel on Monday. Stockpiles at Cushing have slumped for five weeks with the start of the summer driving season when demand peaks.

An outage at Syncrude Canada’s oil-sands facility may lead to a 360,000 barrel-a-day shortage for all of July, which could spur a further draw down in inventories at the U.S. hub, Goldman said. The spread between the European and American markers narrowed 18 per cent Monday and has almost halved in under a week. U.S. crude’s discount to Middle East benchmark Dubai oil shrank to the smallest since May 16.

While the bank kept its summer forecast for Brent crude unchanged at US$82.50 a barrel, it says prices will sequentially decline to US$75 by year-end. However, Goldman warned against positioning for the move lower right away, given the current market deficit and low inventories.