The largest drops were among men in states with high gun-ownership rates and people who resided in the state hosting the convention

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

The rate of gun injuries in the United States has regularly declined during the National Rifle Association’s annual convention, according to a study led by Harvard Medical School and published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Gun injuries nationally have declined by 20% during the convention in previous years, according to the study. The largest reductions were observed among men, in the south and west, in states with high gun-ownership rates, and among people who resided in the state hosting the convention.

“Fewer people using guns means fewer gun injuries, which in some ways is not surprising,” said Anupam Jena, a Harvard Medical School professor who co-authored the study, in a statement. “But the drop in gun injuries during these large meetings attended by thousands of well-trained gun owners seems to refute the idea that gun injuries stem solely from lack of experience and training in gun use.”

An 84% majority of members of the National Rifle Association, the country’s most influential anti-gun-control lobby, say they have taken a gun safety course, versus 67% of all gun owners, according to a 2017 Pew Research study.

Drawing on private insurance claims for the years 2007-2015, researchers compared the rate of injuries from guns during the convention with rates during identical days three weeks before and three weeks after the convention.

Gun injuries on non-convention days occurred at a rate of 1.49 per 100,000 people, compared with 1.19 per 100,000 on convention dates, the study found.

The declines were measurable despite the fact that convention attendees represent a very small proportion of gun owners overall.

The NRA claims 5 million members, representing between 5% and 20% of gun owners nationwide, whose precise numbers are unknown. Annual convention attendance is about 80,000 – or less than 2% of the group’s claimed membership.

How could such a small proportion of gun owners nationally have a measurable impact on gun injuries?

The answer may lie in the fact that NRA members carry, handle and use their guns more frequently than others. According to a July 2017 Pew Research study of gun owners, 53% of NRA members said they “have a gun that is loaded and easily accessible to them at all times”, versus 34% of non-members, while “NRA members are twice as likely to say they carry a gun with them outside of their home all or most of the time” (44% v 22%).

“My speculation, though I don’t have data on the actual empirical distribution of gun use among gun owners, is that the majority of gun owners either never or very rarely discharge their firearm,” said Jena in an email to the Guardian. “In contrast, the top 2% of gun users, who might disproportionately comprise the convention-going population, are probably much heavier users.”

The convention attracts people from places associated with unintentional gun injuries, including shooting ranges and hunting grounds, potentially decreasing incidents in the field.

At past NRA conventions, attendees have been allowed to carry guns in most, but not all, areas as long as local laws allow it.

The study noted that federal data showed no perceptible change in gun crime during the conventions.

The 2018 NRA convention is scheduled for 4-6 May in Dallas, Texas.