After a disappointing start for The LEGO Movie 2 last weekend, things may pick up a bit with the addition of three very different wide releases set to hit multiplexes in order to capitalize on both President’s Day and Valentine’s day; namely Universal’s slasher sequel Happy Death Day 2U, Fox’s sci-fi epic Alita: Battle Angel, and Warner’s Isn’t It Romantic. All three titles are aiming for around $20-25 million by Monday. Both Death Day and Isn’t It Romantic open today (with no previews), while Alita opens tonight at 7 before officially opening on Thursday.

By far, the weekends biggest wild card is Alita: Battle Angel. Reportedly produced for somewhere around $150-170 million, the Fox title has been shuffled around the release schedule several times; initially set to open back in July, the film was then moved to December, where it would’ve faced competition from titles like Aquaman and Bumblebee. Realizing one of its biggest selling points was the ability to see it on a premium format screen such as IMAX or Dolby, Fox wisely moved the title to a fairly appealing release date where none of the other openers would be taking advantage of those Premium Large Format screens.

Still, that’s all moot if no one shows up to see the thing. Comparisons such as Jupiter Ascending, Ghost in the Shell and Valerian don’t exactly paint a pretty picture, all of which opened around $18 million. Of the mega-budget techno/cyberpunk titles, the only one that really managed to break out was Ready Player One, which was based on a much more recognizable source, as well as being steeped in American pop culture as opposed to a more obscure anime. None of the trailers have done a particularly good job selling a cohesive plot with a real hook, instead focusing on sci-fi tropes of an android discovering ‘what they really are’, instead trying to sell it as an effects driven thrill ride. Whether that clicks remains to be seen.

Next is Universal’s sequel Happy Death Day 2U, the follow up to the unexpectedly successful Happy Death Day which opened with over $26 million back in October of 2017. 2U seems to be following the relatively bankable sequel formula of ‘the same, but different’, trapping its main character in the same time loop, providing the same recipe that fans connected with while expanding it enough to seem different enough. Valentine’s Day has also worked for slasher titles such as My Bloody Valentine, as the horror genre tends to work well as a date night option. If Death Day can get close to its predecessors $26 million start by the end of Monday, it will be in very good shape considering its meager $9 million budget.

Finally, Warner Brothers is releasing Isn’t It Romantic, a deconstruction of the romantic comedy genre starring Rebel Wilson. While no budget is available, most Warner comedies tend to end up at around $25-35 million, which seems like a safe bet for Romantic. Reviews have been fine at 67%, and the premise is unique enough that it should serve as solid counter programming for those not interested in a horror or sci-fi title on Valentine’s Day. Anything over $20 million by Monday would be a good start, even if it winds up being very front loaded on Thursday.

Among holdovers, The LEGO Movie should keep first without any major upsets, while the three newcomers will fight over second – even though Alita has a slightly better chance based on not burning demand off on Wednesday.

Predictions

The LEGO Movie 2 – $24 million Happy Death Day 2U – $18 million ($27 million five day) Alita: Battle Angel – $17 million ($22 million four day) Isn’t It Romantic – $13.5 million ($20 million five day) What Men Want – $12 million