Restraint has been the watchword of the Premier League season so far: all 20 clubs reached Christmas with the same manager they started out with for the first time this millennium and a cautious prudence also seems likely to govern spending when the transfer window reopens in January.

It is a truth almost universally acknowledged by now that midwinter is not a time for bargains in football. It is possible to pick up good players. Chelsea’s Nemanja Matic was the standout capture a year ago but José Mourinho was forced to pay an eye-watering £22m for a player the club had let go for next to nothing three years earlier. That determined bit of business, paid for by the sale of Juan Mata to Manchester United, turned out to be the exception rather than the rule.

Consider, for instance, some of the less successful January moves from a year ago. Kostas Mitroglou to Fulham did not really work out but nor did Grant Holt to Aston Villa, Kenwyne Jones to Cardiff or Stephen Ireland to Stoke. Just as significant was the number of clubs who stayed out of the shopping frenzy altogether. Between them Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester City, Southampton and Spurs made not a single purchase, and none were noticeably poorer as a result.

The complication for leading clubs in January is that players eligible to take part in the Champions League are at a premium. Matic had to sit out Chelsea’s remaining European games last season because he had played in the competition for Benfica. Most clubs looking for a short-term fix would be put off by such a disadvantage; Chelsea were unusual in having the money, the squad depth and the long-term strategy to take the hit and secure the target.

They are unlikely to be doing anything as bold this time and neither are Manchester City, who could do with bringing in a striker as cover for Sergio Agüero – they have been slightly underpowered up front since allowing Álvaro Negredo to return to Spain – but operate a general policy of not conducting major business mid-season.

Perhaps more likely to spend are Liverpool, who need a goalkeeper and may be looking for a more reliable striker than Mario Balotelli, and Arsenal, who are short of cover at centre-half and almost always losing midfielders to long-term injuries. Arsène Wenger has said he is not afraid of spending and will buy a centre-half if the right player becomes available – “Without defensive solidity we have no future,” he says – though in terms of a player able to improve the Arsenal defence in the Champions League, there is every chance that the ideal candidate may not become available. Somehow Wenger usually manages to sound more guarded when he is threatening to spend than when he is ruling out panic buying.

Liverpool no longer have to worry about this season’s Champions League but if Brendan Rodgers is still talking about a top-four finish, which he is, then there is work to be done at both ends of the side.

Although the return of Daniel Sturridge would be a boost from the goalscoring point of view, there is concern over when that may happen and how long the striker may last, and not much evidence Balotelli can supply the missing goals in the meantime.

At the back Rodgers created uncertainty over the goalkeeping position by indicating Simon Mignolet has been dropped indefinitely, for even before Brad Jones became injured the Australian did not seem a realistic option for the remainder of the season. Either Mignolet will keep the shirt after his short spell out, which is what everyone imagined would happen, or Rodgers has a new goalkeeper ready to unveil.

Fiorentina’s Neto is affordable, available and fits the profile Rodgers would prefer, but Liverpool have been linked with just about everyone from Petr Cech to Víctor Valdés in recent weeks. Jones says he has stopped reading the papers because there is a different goalkeeper coming to Liverpool every day; Mignolet probably did so months ago.

At the other end of the table, relegation-threatened clubs are normally looking at their goals scored totals and considering last rolls of the dice by now, except this season two of the most reliable finishers are already performing well for sides hoping for Premier League survival. Charlie Austin at Queens Park Rangers and his former Burnley team-mate Danny Ings have been playing so well bigger clubs have taken notice and both may be the subject of bids when the window opens.

“If we sold Charlie Austin we might as well go home,” Harry Redknapp said of the striker who has contributed more than half his side’s goals this season. He would say that, though, wouldn’t he? Although Austin may well hold the key to QPR’s hopes of staying up, he has 18 months left on his contract and is at the top of his value from a selling point of view right now.

Ings has only six months of his Burnley contract to run and can soon start talking to other clubs. He is widely expected to leave Turf Moor at the end of the season, with Liverpool and Newcastle among the clubs interested in his services, but his preference, as well as Burnley’s, is to stay where he is until then and try to score the goals to keep the club up. Football has a habit of not always sticking to well-intentioned schemes, however, and, as with Austin at QPR, decisions will ultimately be made according to the size of the offers that come in.

Austin and Ings are English and, though neither has been capped at senior level, it seems only a matter of time. They may not go anywhere in January but that in itself would be an encouraging story. Although names such as Fábio Coentrão, Wesley Sneijder and Nabil Fekir may be creating all the buzz before the transfer window, it could be just as rewarding to follow the fortunes of a couple of homegrown talents just up from the Championship.