| | | | | | | RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics December 11, 2013 Dec 11, 2013 This is an RSR survey - of 1,013 British Columbians who voted in the most recent general provincial election in May 2013. This survey was conducted by telephone from RSR private lists of BC voters from December 3rd through to the 9th of 2013. The Margin of Error in this private survey is between 3.0-3.1%, plus or minus. The confidence level of this survey is 95% 19 times out of 20. This survey was sponsored in part by the 'new millionaires'. Question #1 Do you support: (a) increasing the amount of coal BC produces, (b) the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline in Burnaby at Chevron by 7 times current capacity, (c) the development of the Enbridge Gateway pipeline in Northern BC? Yes 35 % No 56 % Question #2 Do you support the development and construction of the BC Hydro Site C Dam in northern British Columbia at a cost of $10 billion? Yes 42 % No 38 % Question #3 Which of the following political leaders and associated parties do you most support at this time? (Depicted to 100% decided) Mike Farnworth and BC New Democratic Party 36 % Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party 35 % Elizabeth May and BC Green Party 23.5 % Rick Peterson and BC Conservative Party 5.5 % Undecided 8.5 % Commentary In this RSR survey of BC voters, the first interesting survey conducted throughout British Columbia since the May 2013 general provincial election, we find some insightful results on matters relating to energy development in the province in questions 1 and 2 in relation to the popularity of leaders and parties offered in question 3. In traditional polling the leader and party is the baseline question and other questions follow it. At RSR we are anything but traditional as we have first hand knowledge that the political and legal system in this province (at least) is wholly corrupted - and choose instead to ask the energy questions first. We care what the people think, not what national advertisers say. We included long time BC NDP MLA Mike Farnworth as leader choice along with his BC New Democratic Party. Mike Farnworth finished 2nd to outgoing leader Adrian Dix in the previous NDP leadership contest and the twenty year veteran is considered the odds on favourite in the upcoming leadership bid. The big surprise for readers in this RSR survey may be our use of federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May (considered by many one of the best parliamentarians in Ottawa), as leader of the BC Green party. The results are a stunner! Elizabeth May currently holds a federal seat from British Columbia on Vancouver Island one of the most likely targets of an oil spill - and the Province of British Columbia is hurtling like a massive comet to planet earth toward a Green versus Oil confrontation of seismic proportion in the coming months and years - she is the one to carry the banner of the environment - to the battle for British Columbia. The numbers in this RSR survey - particularly with Elizabeth May and BC Greens over 20% in Langley and the Fraser Valley - reflects the fact that many BC voters - are - at a minimum - willing to park significant support with BC Green's environmental party, fearing that a weaker premier might permit the takeover of British Columbia's natural interests from other jurisdictions in Canada with specific agendas including the province of Alberta and the Prime Ministers Office on behalf of Calgary where the Prime Minister's riding is, and where the centre of oil business is located. Christy Clark's BC Liberals are hovering around the mid 30's percentile - not immediate difficulty for the party with years before the next provincial election; however anecdote from this RSR survey would suggest that although Christy Clark has proven herself an excellent election campaigner, there are an abundance of lingering doubts surrounding her ability to actually lead the province in between elections. On this - the people believe that it is well enough to say I am to far away lands conducting business on behalf of the province, however Premier Clark is not perceived as a person of business - and after cancelling another legislative session, and with a full six months gone by with the election in the rear view mirror, the sense that the BC Liberal election win in May was a fluke has arrived back to its original point with voters, realizing that there is truth to this, and the more current thinking among the electorate - where is Christy Clark - and is she really and truly up to the job of premier? Mike Farnworth is a long time BC NDP MLA - with significant experience. His 2nd place finish to Adrian Dix in BC NDP leadership race a couple of years ago was marked by rumours of membership rigging by the eventual winner's campaign - that has contributed to the nagging sense that he party is incapable of getting past itself and actually leading the province. The rise of the BC Green Party would strongly suggest that if the NDP cannot figure out who it is or what it wants for the province, the BC Greens would be happy to do so. In this RSR the BC NDP are down but a few percentile from their May 2013 election totals - with the BC Liberals down nearly double digits. How is it that the BC Greens have the support of nearly one in four voters at this time? The first explanation is that some BC Liberal voters are not happy with Christy Clark's action on the energy file. The perception is that former premier Gordon Campbell while leading the BC Liberals tried to make headway on the environment and the reduction of BC's participation in hurting the environment. Now many BC Liberals believe that Christy is set to throw the whole plan Holus-bolus to please interests other than those of British Columbians. The new possibility is featured in this RSR survey in the name of Elizabeth May. What if she were to abandon federal politics and repatriate to BC to lead the battle for the environment here in BC - where a fight is sure to take place. Support for expansion of coal and pipeline(s) in British Columbia is met with mixed results among respondents, with the final outcome of support well below 40% and the firm opposition against significant expansion as evidenced in our RSR question well above 51%.