North County resident Janis Newland faces a potentially tough decision in November’s midterm election.

Her preferred candidate for congress, Darrell Issa, announced this week that he would join the more than 30 House Republicans not seeking re-election. Most, including Issa and California Rep. Ed Royce, represent districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Newland voted for Issa and Donald Trump, but much like the 49th District she lives in, her politics are hard to pin down.

“I’m a registered Democrat but that doesn’t mean anything,” said the 66 year old. “I don’t trust anybody right now.”


The district — which stretches from La Jolla in San Diego up the coast to Dana Point in Southern Orange County — still has more Republican voters than Democrat.

But the GOP’s advantage has been shrinking for more than a decade, and to complicate things, more and more people are registering no party preference.

Newland said she’s seen the same pattern play out on Oro Grande Street in Oceanside, where she’s lived for the last 28 years. Young families with liberal values have over time replaced many of the aging conservatives that used to live on her small cul-de-sac.


“People moving in, people moving out, the way things are going nowadays, it’s just completely changed,” she said, “I know some younger people aren’t happy with the way things are going.”

Carrie Jaffe and her wife moved down the street from Newland in 2006, and they have no question in their mind how to vote in the upcoming election.

“The way I see Republicans right now is that we’ve talked about leaving the country,” said the 56-year-old. “Seriously, it feels to us that it’s going backwards in such a way that it may not be recoverable for a very long time.”


For years, Issa was able to navigate the evolving politics of the 49th District.

When redistricting in California redrew the lines six years ago to include more of the coast, many Democrats thought they would retake the seat.

Issa proved them wrong, winning by wide margins in 2012 and then again in 2014. Despite the shifting demographics in the district, his popularity soared with regular appearances on national television attacking then-President Barack Obama.

A large crowd of people gathered outside district offices on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2018 to a rally and celebrate Congressman Darrell Issa’s announcement he will not seek re-election in the 49th District of the U.S. House of Representatives. (Eduardo Contreras / San Diego Union-Tribune )


However, with Trump on the ballot in 2016, Issa’s run nearly came to an end when he squeaked out a victory over political neophyte Dough Applegate by less than a percentage point.

Since then, the political context in California has only become more challenging for Republicans such as Issa, according to Thad Kousser, chair of the political science department of UC San Diego, who also lives in the 49th District.

“Donald Trump has so badly damaged the Republican brand in California that it’s almost impossible for any politician to escape that and not be wounded by association,” he said.

Issa’s spokesman Calvin Moore agreed that Trump would have made it harder for the congressman to win re-election.


“It’s not a secret that Trump’s unpopular in the district,” he said. “Anytime you have a top of the ticket that’s unpopular that can be a challenge in your district.”

Kousser said that in recent decades many Republican voters have left coastal California for jobs inland or in other states. The voters who replaced them, he said, are not just more liberal, they’re often the children of Latino immigrants who take personal offense to the president’s inflammatory rhetoric.

“Latinos have become more and more engaged in California politics in the last decade and have become this driving political force in California,” he said. “The 49th has a lot of voters who are mad at Donald Trump.”

Today, Latinos make up 27 percent of the district, which trends significantly more liberal in San Diego County than Orange County.


Democratic contenders appealing to those and other voters in November include Applegate, an attorney, Paul Kerr, a real estate businessman, Sara Jacobs, head of an international nonprofit and granddaughter of Qualcomm co-founder Irwin Jacobs, and Mike Levin, an energy attorney.

Still, Republicans said they aren’t backing down, arguing that the strong economy and a potentially bloody Democratic primary will ensure victory for conservatives.

“At the end of the day, this is a Republican district,” said Jack Pandol, regional press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “With the right candidates in the field, we have every confidence that we’re going to be able to hold onto his seat no question.”

State Assemblyman Rocky Chávez of Oceanside is hoping he’s that right candidate. The former Marine and Latino Republican announced he would run on Thursday.


“It’s time we come together and focus on progress, not partisan politics and gridlock,” Chávez said in a statement announcing his intention to run.

Much of the fury against Issa has been driven by his partisan support for Trump, especially on the issue of immigration.

Protests have continued outside the politician’s office nearly every week since Trump’s election, and a grassroots campaign to unseat him, named Flip the 49th, has drawn support from the Democratic Party, organized labor and even celebrities such as Jane Fonda, Leonardo DiCaprio and Ted Danson.

Now, with Issa gone, activists such as Cipriano Vargas, field organizer for Flip the 49th, may have to work extra hard to get progressives out to the polls in November.


“We have a growing population of Latinos, and we know that many of them do not vote in the midterm elections, so that’s something that we speak to them about,” he said. “But because we have been doing our due diligence mobilizing, we’re confident that we’ll get people out to vote.”

At the same time, Republicans candidates may likely try to distance themselves from President Trump.

Former State Assemblywoman and current Board of Equalization Representative Diane Harkey has also thrown her hat in the ring, saying on her campaign website that she plans to focus on tax reform.

Asked about her position on the policies of the president, her campaign manager Dave Gilliard offered this: “I don’t know if anybody in their right mind would have a position on Trump, so to speak. If it’s a Donald Trump idea, that’s fine. If it’s a Nancy Pelosi idea, that’s fine too, as long as it’s good. She’s not tied down to any candidate, which is to her advantage.”


If Republicans do manage to hold onto the district in November, it’ll likely be a temporary victory, said Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego Mesa College.

“Old white voters who used to define San Diego are less of a force,” he said. “It’s becoming in California a perfect storm against Republicans. They have to figure out how they’re going to surf that storm or risk becoming irrelevant.”

Since 2000, Republican registration in California has dropped from about 35 percent to just 26 percent. In that time frame, the percentage of registered Democrats has remained around 45 percent, while those declining to state a party preference jumped from 14 percent to 24 percent.


Twitter: @jemersmith


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Email: joshua.smith@sduniontribune.com