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I believe that even if the FDA puts out some fairly bad policies regarding electronic cigarettes, those policies are likely to be traded in for more appropriate ones in the long run. But let’s live in a world for a moment where electronic cigarettes have the stuffing kicked out of them by short-sighted, lobby-controlled regulations designed to kill as much of the market as possible. What then?

Well, the easy conclusion is that Big Tobacco comes to own the market at large as they’re the only entities with the money, expertise, and power to endure harsh regulations. Wells Fargo already predicts that roughly 75% of the U.S. e-cig market will ultimately end up in the hands of Lorillard, Phillip Morris, and R.J. Reynolds. A bigger knock to the industry will be an end to almost all innovation and product variety within the market as the FDA requires even the smallest variation be submitted through an expensive and lengthy application process for approval.

But Big Tobacco is grabbing and the FDA is primarily focusing on the model market — those small (often disposable or semi-disposable) e-cigs that closely resemble traditional cigarettes. Neither is ready to tackle the tank and mods markets. And while models are definitely bigger business right now, it’s the personal vaporizer market that will be so different, diverse, and rapidly growing that it is almost impossible to stop.

Here’s why:

The paraphernalia market for any regulated product group is hard to control. Consider the problems police have had keeping places from selling glass pipes, hookahs, and papers even when it’s super obvious their being sold for illicit drug use. Is a small empty tank with a heating coil an e-cig? What about a battery? What about flavored no-nicotine e-liquid? Regulating a market (particularly one with such a strong do-it-yourself community) is extraordinarily difficult. Product diversity and utility makes it even more difficult to qualify pieces as tobacco products as long as there is at least one distinct legal use. This is why brick and mortar head shops can still sell drug paraphernalia.

The community has formed a support structure capable of bypassing normal avenues of control. Speaking of the do-it-yourself community, FDA regulations may work to squash and control normal retail of products, but strong communities out there make it easy to bypass tradition end-consumer product purchasing. Many individuals have turned electronic cigarette use into a hobby and they are more than willing to educate, assist, and foster new vapers. To put it simply, the FDA may be able to prevent a company from selling completed electronic cigarette units, but it will have difficulty stopping sales of puzzle pieces that add up to an e-cig.

A black market will fill any void the FDA creates. This appears to already be happening in many places where e-cigs are highly taxed, over-controlled, or completely banned. Would an ex-smoker rather go back to smoking or purchase smuggled and unregulated products? For many — especially those that have managed to quit smoking with electronic cigarettes — this is a no-brainer. Even if e-cigs contain significant impurities, experts say they pose a maximum of 5% of the harm of smoking. But even getting away from the addiction/harm debate, vapers enjoy vaping and will find ways to continue. A survey in the UK found that 66% of vapers would buy e-liquid from a black market if they had to.

The FDA will have a hard time taking e-cigs from people (or getting in the way of people getting their e-cigs) without making it into a rights issue. E-cigs save lives. E-cigs cause 1% of the harm that cigarettes do and so should be 100 times more available. E-cigs make vapers happy. To put it simply– E-cigs are about Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Regulations that adversely impact any of these three rights for vapers are likely to find themselves under scrutiny in a courtroom.

There is certainly more to this debate. However, electronic cigarettes have yet to convince me that sheer optimism for the market is the wrong point of view.

Keep Calm and Vape On.