The Treasurer would like to believe his first budget is all about jobs and growth. But the only thing growing lately is the deficit and debt. And despite some admirable measures here, that's not about to change any time soon, writes Ian Verrender.

It's a well worn thoroughfare traversed by five Prime Ministers and four Treasurers in the past five years.

But the credible path to surplus is now in serious need of repair, cracked and chipped from repeated stumbles. Rather than being fixed, it now winds forever into the future.

This is a budget that banks on China continuing to muddle its way through an economic transition of monumental proportions without a hitch, paving the way for continued growth here.

That's a mighty big bet.

If there is a fundamental failing in this document, it is that it ignores a basic tenet of mathematics; that continually throwing away revenue is a recipe for deficits well beyond any timeframe now envisaged by the Treasury.

Once again, the growth assumptions that underpin the planned rejuvenation of the national balance sheet are hopelessly optimistic, to the point of being unattainable.

Take nominal GDP. Last year it was barely hovering above the mat at just 1.6 per cent. Within two years, it's projected to jump to 5 per cent. There's no real explanation of how or why that will occur.

Nominal GDP is one of the most important measures for any Treasurer, for it incorporates value, and hence inflation. And so it is the number that determines how much money flows into the Government's coffers.

It may have escaped Scott Morrison's attention, but last week inflation lurched into reverse for the first time in eight years. It is unlikely to recover to normal levels soon.

That means nominal GDP is likely to lag behind real GDP, which in turn means revenue will be strangled and the deficit will expand.

It certainly didn't escape Glenn Stevens' attention. As he hacked another 25 basis points off the official cash rate, just hours before the Treasurer jumped to his feet to deliver his maiden statement, an audible intake of breath ricocheted around the halls of Parliament.

The Reserve Bank clearly is worried about inflation, and growth.

As the Treasurer repeated ad nauseum, this budget is all about jobs and growth. But the only proven performer in the growth stakes in the past three years has been the size of the deficit and the national debt. That's raised the spectre of a credit rating downgrade.

This time last year, the deficit was forecast at $35.1 billion. By December that had blown out to $37.4 billion. Now, we're told that we will end the financial year with a $39.9 billion shortfall. That's a huge miscalculation in a matter of just months.

But still the Government refuses to countenance an increase in the tax take, instead clinging to the idea that lower taxes will lead to growth, which will then lead to more tax revenue.

Joe Hockey started the ball rolling when he handed out $8 billion to the Reserve Bank shortly after assuming office. Ridding the nation of the carbon tax also denuded the Government's coffers of about $6 billion a year in revenue. The carbon tax compensation, however, was kept in place.

It was a tradition that has been maintained. Company tax rates will decline gradually over the next 10 years, locking successive governments into either finding savings on the other side of the ledger or praying that growth magically kicks in.

When it comes to savings, there was a touch of ministerial chest beating about fiscal discipline since the Abbot/Hockey overthrow last September. Savings of $1.4 billion now are locked in over the next four years.

Divide that by four. That's a saving of less than half a billion a year. And the deficit this year was just shy of $40 billion. It will barely scratch the surface.

There are some admirable measures in Scott Morrison's first budget. Number one is the long awaited clamp down on superannuation abuse. The loophole, opened during the Howard government, that has seen Australia's wealthiest denude Treasury of billions of dollars will be pulled tighter.

A large portion of those savings will be directed to those most in need of retirement savings; lower income Australians and women. So no real budget relief, but an enormous shift that will partially unwind the blatant unfairness that delivers huge benefits to those with the most wealth.

Then there is the focus on corporate tax evasion. A new unit with 1,300 staff and beefed-up powers will operate within the Australian Tax Office to force recalcitrant multinationals to pull their weight.

There's been a great deal of talk about this over the years with precious little action. Until now.

Within the new unit, which ATO supremo Chris Jordan will personally lead, will be 390 new recruits; accountants, lawyers and economists, many of whom have worked for major accounting firms engaged in legal tax rorting.

From now on, multinationals will have to be transparent in their dealings with the ATO and co-operate. Should they fail on either count, the ATO will deem its own rate of tax.

Just how much this will yield is open to question. Multinationals have become expert in manipulating global tax regimes, picking and choosing their domiciles to ensure they pay as little as possible. The action won't be confined to corporations either. Australia's richest families who engage in similar behaviour will be on the radar.

Admirable, it may be. But it won't be enough to bring the budget back to balance. The path needs repaving.

Ian Verrender is the ABC's business editor and writes a weekly column for The Drum.