Mesoscale Discussion 0227 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Georgia and northern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241719Z - 241915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few marginally severe hailstones are possible. Conditional threats for wind damage and a weak, brief tornado may exist later in the afternoon. No WW is currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has formed along a slowly northward progressing warm front in response to a weak mid-level wave upstream. These storms currently reside north of the boundary and are somewhat elevated. Morning regional RAOB data show mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km. Combinded with effective deep-layer shear of 40-50 kts will support a few organized storms that will primarily pose a threat for marginally severe hail. Current MUCAPE is fairly low, but modest mid-level cooling with time may increase values to 750-1000 J/kg. The overall threat for damaging wind gusts is presently low. However, should some upscale growth occur or the boundary lift northward and allow for surface-based storms a greater threat for wind damage would materialize. The tornado threat is similarly low given how weak low-level winds are. A narrow window of opportunity for a weak, brief tornado will be possible later in the afternoon when a modest increase in 850 mb winds will occur in conjunction with a storm or two potentially becoming surface-based near the boundary. Given the marginal and conditional nature of the severe threat, no WW is currently expected. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 03/24/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34118369 34638307 34808119 34407961 34097904 33577931 33458109 33378233 33458311 33608373 33718371 34118369