The Progressive Conservatives would form a minority government if the provincial election were held now, after the Liberals narrowed the gap in the days following their pre-election budget, a new public opinion poll suggests.

The PCs, who have led in polls for the better part of a year, would win 57 seats, a Forum Research survey found. The Liberals would serve as opposition with 36 seats and the NDP would win 31 seats.

Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum, called the Liberal’s increase in support “as drastic as it is sudden.”

“If the Liberals can turn this spark of life into momentum, it could open the door just slightly toward a competitive race in June,” he said in a statement. “This budget looks like a good start for the provincial Liberals.”

According to the 728 randomly selected Ontario voters surveyed Wednesday and Thursday by Forum over the phone, 36 per cent would vote for the PCs, 29 per cent would vote Liberal and 26 per cent would vote for the NDP.

A previous Forum poll, conducted in mid-March, found that while almost half of Ontario voters disapproved of Doug Ford as leader, the party was poised for a majority government in the June 7 election with a projected 44 per cent of the vote.

“We’ve had the Tories in majority and at times, super majority territory, for the last two years,” Bozinoff said. “And during their leadership race, they were in super majority territory. This is an about-face for them.”

The new poll didn’t ask if respondents approved of Doug Ford as PC leader, but it did ask how they felt about the 2018 Ontario budget unveiled by Finance Minister Charles Sousa on Wednesday.

A plurality of 44 per cent of survey respondents disapproved of the budget, with only a quarter (24 per cent) in approval of the budget. A third, at 32 per cent, said they did not know whether they approved or disapproved.

“The budget itself is not super popular, but the individual components within the budget are hugely popular,” Bozinoff said.

Among the eight specific initiatives polled was spending to reduce overcrowding at hospitals with 74 per cent approval (17 per cent disapproved); free daycare with 53 per cent approval (41 per cent disapproved); eliminating co-pay or deductibles from senior prescriptions with 61 per cent approval (28 per cent disapproved); and expanding capacity at Sick Kids with 59 per cent approval (a quarter disapproved).

Bozinoff cautioned that the election would be a long race.

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“This is like the first inning,” he said. “It shows that yes, elections matter, yes, the Liberals aren’t dead; there’s no forgone conclusions in this race. We can’t say because somebody is winning or losing right now, they’re going to win or lose on June the 7th.”

Survey results based on the total sample are considered accurate, plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.