With the trade deadline growing ever-closer (2/26 at 3 PM Eastern), the Tampa Bay Lightning are running out of time to make roster moves in anticipation of a playoff run. It seems the Lightning need a lot of things: another defenseman; a big player who’s not afraid to throw a few hits; and maybe even another offensive-minded forward. What they seem to have an excess of, however, is backup goalies. With Peter Budaj expected to return from injury a week or two before the deadline, the Lightning might try to deal either him or backup backup Louis Domingue to help shore up some of their skating issues. What should we think of these goaltenders, Tampa’s goalie situation, and who might be interested in trading for one of these two netminders?

The Goalies

Peter Budaj, 35, came to Tampa Bay via the Los Angeles Kings at the tail end of last season. Stepping in for Jonathan Quick, Budaj had a great season and was resigned by the Lightning in the offseason. Budaj is in the first year of a two-year contract, with an annual cap hit of $1.025 million. At the end of the 2018-2019 season, Budaj will be an unrestricted free agent. This season, Budaj has a 98.63% save percentage on low-danger shots, 90.62% on medium-danger shots, and 63.64% on high-danger shots. Budaj has shown excellent positioning skills this season, but there is some concern that he is simply too slow to be a force in the NHL, or at least for the Lightning, who are used to playing defense for the large and speedy Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Louis Domingue, 25, joined the Crunch following a trade with the Coyotes after he lost his spot in Arizona. Domingue ended up back in the NHL after Budaj’s injury against the Flyers. Domingue has played in three games for the Lightning so far, going 2-1-0 on the season for them. Domingue is under contract for $1.05 million and will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season. In his NHL games so far this season, Domingue has a 97.73% save percentage on low-danger shots, 86.49% on medium-danger shots, and 79.31% on high-danger shots. Domingue is fairly fast, which gives him a better chance against high-danger shots, but his positioning could use a bit of work. Domingue is also a full right goalie (one of the few to play in the NHL), which may make playing defense for him a bit different than for Vasilevskiy.

Tampa, Moving Forward

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the future at goalie for the Tampa Bay Lightning. That much is obvious. Under contract until the end of the 2020 season, when he will be a restricted free agent, Vasilevskiy has a cap hit of $3.5 million for this and the next two seasons. At only 23, Vasilevskiy still has many years of hockey ahead of him, hopefully with the Lightning. Vasilevskiy’s youth does change the priorities some for the Lightning. Notably, Domingue’s age is less of a factor for the Lightning, as they likely have little interest in grooming him for the starting job, unless they do so with the intention of trading him for more than they could get now. Domingue may want a larger payout after this season, and it’s unclear if Tampa would be willing to commit either the years or the money for such an extension. Budaj, under contract through the end of next year, provides a more stable option, and one that could continue to mentor Vasilevskiy as he continues to improve. The question, however, is how well Budaj’s contract length lines up with Connor Ingram’s development. Ingram has looked great in the ECHL this season, sporting a .960 save percentage, but has looked beatable in the AHL with a .902. Indeed, it’s unclear if Ingram would be ready for a backup role after next season and, if not, what the Lightning would do for a backup netminder if Budaj does move on.

Western Conference

Let’s first consider which teams would be interested in trading for a (backup) goaltender. All but three teams from the West have at least a 15% chance of making the playoffs (Edmonton, Vancouver, and Arizona). Of the remaining twelve, three have at least an 85% chance of making the playoffs, and likely want to spend their resources on someone who will make a bigger impact on winning in the playoffs, instead of just making it there. This leaves us with seven teams with between a 15% and 85% chance of making the playoffs in the West: St. Louis, Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, and Calgary.

Carter Hutton has been fantastic for St. Louis as of late, and the team is unlikely to deal Jake Allen, meaning they have no room for another goaltender. Colorado has seen superb play from Jonathan Bernier this season in Semyon Varlamov’s absence and so is likely not interested in a backup goaltender. Kari Lehtonen has been a serviceable backup for former Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop. Similarly, Minnesota, Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, and Calgary have all found themselves strong backup goaltenders.

The only options for a goalie trade out west, it seems, is either if Chicago heats up and decides to make a run without starting netminder Corey Crawford or if Anaheim’s Gibson suffers another injury prior to the trade deadline. If Chicago makes a playoff push, Peter Budaj might serve them well, with many years of NHL experience and an inexpensive contract, which could be traded away or buried in the AHL after the season. Domingue also serves as an intriguing backup, with the possibility to stay on with the Blackhawks after this season as Crawford’s backup and to potentially replace him when he eventually retires. While Anaheim’s Miller is still a solid goalie, Reto Berra does not inspire much confidence as a backup, should Gibson suffer a serious injury (as he has in the past).

Eastern Conference

We turn to the Eastern Conference. Presently, seven teams, all from the Metro, sit within the 15%-85% window: New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Philadelphia, New York (Rangers), Carolina, and New York (Islanders). Of these teams, the Penguins, Blue Jackets, and Rangers seem to have bigger issues with which to deal and would almost certainly be unwilling to trade for a goalie.

This leaves, then, the Devils, Flyers, Hurricanes, and Islanders. Given Keith Kinkaid’s recent performance, it seems unlikely that New Jersey will be interested in a trade unless Cory Schneider’s injury is more serious than it appears. The Flyers, if they are still seeking a goalie in a couple weeks (because they have not yet found a replacement but are still in the playoff hunt), could be interested in trading for Domingue or, less likely, Budaj. Brian Elliott, 32, is out indefinitely following a lower-body injury and is under contract through the end of next season. Michael Neuvirth, 29, has struggled with injuries and bouts with poor play throughout his career. He is also contracted through the end of next season. Alex Lyon, the Flyers’ goalie-in-waiting, has earned a decent .910 save percentage in the AHL this season, but it is not yet clear if he will be able to compete in the NHL. The Flyers could certainly benefit from a promising young goalie in Domingue and hope to trade one of Elliott or Neuvirth in the offseason. Budaj, at 35, is a bit old for the Flyers, and would likely only play for the season before being traded or sent down to the AHL.

The Hurricanes and the Islanders have had goaltending issues all season, with no goalie on either team earning above a .909 save percentage thus far. Carolina faces the issue of both their current goalies holding modified no-trade clauses, but Cam Ward’s contract expires at the end of this season and, if Domingue plays well for them, it is unclear if they would want to resign him. Similarly, trading for Budaj could give Scott Darling a chance at being a 1A/1B goalie next season with Budaj mentoring him in an effort to improve his play. For New York, Jaroslav Halák is in the last year of his contract and may not be resigned by the Islanders. Similar to Carolina and Darling, it seems New York may have overpaid for Thomas Greiss, with an annual cap hit of $3.333 million. Unlike Carolina, however, it is unclear if Greiss will be able to develop any further and so the Islanders would likely have a stronger preference for Domingue over Budaj.

Conclusion

In sum, Tampa Bay may be interested in trading one of their backup goaltenders for pieces more useful in a playoff run. Peter Budaj and Louis Domingue, while at different stages in their careers, each offer benefits and risks for trading. If the Lightning did seek a trade partner for one of their backup goaltenders, their best bets would likely be the Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, Carolina Hurricanes, and New York Islanders. Whether the Lightning make a move like this, however, remains to be seen.

Sources

http://corsica.hockey/goalie-stats/

http://www.hockeydb.com/

https://www.capfriendly.com/

https://www.hockey-reference.com/