Report rules out options, including Norway model, that could involve tariffs on exports or harm UK’s financial services industry

This article is more than 4 years old

This article is more than 4 years old

The government has concluded in an official report that Britain would be “weaker, less safe and worse off” if it left the European Union.

The document, which has been compiled under the terms of the act of parliament authorising the EU referendum, examines a series of alternatives to EU membership that would all lead to the loss of trade deals and police cooperation.

The alternatives to EU membership rejected by the government are:

The Norway model . Oslo has access to the single market but “contributes significantly to EU spending” and abides by EU rules on the free movement of people. More than 6% of the population resident in Norway are EU nationals, higher than the 4% in the UK. Norway also has to accept 75% of EU laws but has no say over how they are drawn up.



. Oslo has access to the single market but “contributes significantly to EU spending” and abides by EU rules on the free movement of people. More than 6% of the population resident in Norway are EU nationals, higher than the 4% in the UK. Norway also has to accept 75% of EU laws but has no say over how they are drawn up. The Swiss model . Financial services in Switzerland have limited access to the single market. A similar model would be damaging for the UK because service companies account for 80% of the UK economy. Financial services would face increased costs because they would lose “passports” that allow them to sell to the EU market without the need for additional permits.



. Financial services in Switzerland have limited access to the single market. A similar model would be damaging for the UK because service companies account for 80% of the UK economy. Financial services would face increased costs because they would lose “passports” that allow them to sell to the EU market without the need for additional permits. The Canada model . EU-Canada trade is governed by a scoping exercise that has not been fully implemented and grants only partial access to the single market. Car manufacturers are obliged to comply with EU “rules of origin”, which lead to increased costs. Canada has no say in the drawing up of EU rules.



. EU-Canada trade is governed by a scoping exercise that has not been fully implemented and grants only partial access to the single market. Car manufacturers are obliged to comply with EU “rules of origin”, which lead to increased costs. Canada has no say in the drawing up of EU rules. The World Trade Organisation model. Britain would have to “fall back” on this arrangement, in which trade with the EU would be governed by WTO rules, if it fails to negotiate a deal with the EU. British exporters to the EU would face new tariffs, including 5% on chemical exports, 10% on cars, 20% on alcohol such as scotch whisky and up to 50% on some foodstuffs.

The government believes that the report highlights the central flaw in the leave campaign. It cannot agree on what model Britain should follow outside the EU or offer a guarantee on which would be the best model were it to reach agreement.

The government has pointed out that under the exit clause in the Lisbon treaty known as article 50, the UK loses its seat on the European council and has no vote over the final deal, which has to be concluded within two years.

The report shows the influence of Mats Persson, one of the prime minister’s EU advisers. Persson was previously director of the Open Europe thinktank, which produced a near-identical report.