Ucas reveals 52,321 UK-born students have applied for university next year, when fees will rise to up to £9,000 a year

The number of UK-born university applicants for next September – when fees rise to up to £9,000 a year – has plummeted by almost 12%, official figures show.

The first set of statistics on applications to university next year, published by the Universities and Colleges and Admissions Service (Ucas), reveal that 52,321 applicants have applied from within the UK, compared with 59,413 this time last year.

Union leaders said the figures were proof that ministers' decision to almost treble fees had been "a disaster", while charities expressed concern that students from low-income homes may have been deterred from applying.

The statistics show the number of applications received by universities by 15 October, the deadline for Oxford, Cambridge and courses in medicine, dentistry and veterinary medicine, and are an early indication of the total across all courses this year.

Candidates for other universities have until 15 January to apply, but there has been a trend for early submissions and the figures include early applications for other universities and courses too.

The number of applicants from within and outside the UK combined has fallen by 9% to 69,724, from 76,612 this time last year.

The statistics show that the number of applications – candidates can apply to up to five universities – from the UK and elsewhere has fallen by 7.9% to 299,764, from 325,527 this time last year.

Applications to Oxford, Cambridge, medicine, veterinary science and dentistry courses alone have fallen, but not by very much. The number of applicants has decreased by 0.8% (464 candidates), and the number of applications has gone down by 1.7% (2,298).

Universities and politicians have been worried that the decision to almost treble tuition fees to up to £9,000 next year would deter many, particularly the most disadvantaged, from applying. Students can pay the fees with a student loan to be repaid when they are earning more than £21,000.

The figures suggest more women than men have been put off from applying to university. Some 10.5% fewer women have applied this year, and 7% fewer men.

Mature students appear to have been particularly deterred by the higher fees, the figures show. The number of applicants aged 40 or older has fallen by 27.8%, and among those aged between 30 and 39 the number has dropped by 22.7%.

The figures do not show whether those from low-income families have been particularly deterred.

Sally Hunt, general secretary of the University and College Union, the trade union for lecturers, said the statistics showed the government's fees policy had been a "disaster from the start".

"It is clearly having a serious impact on the choices young people make," she said. "People should study the right course for them, not just the cheapest one or none at all. These depressing figures take us back to the time when it was cost, not ability, that determined your future."

But others said it was too early to interpret the figures as a sign of an overall fall in total applications to university.

In 2006, when tuition fees last trebled from £1,000 a year to £3,000, applications fell by 4.5%, but were followed by a 7.1% rebound the following year. Two years after that, in 2009, applications soared by 10.1%.

Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of the umbrella group for vice-chancellors, Universities UK, said: "Historically, the application figures at the end of October have proven to be unreliable indicators of the final numbers. It may also be that students are taking longer this year to consider their options."

Tessa Stone, chief executive of Brightside, an education charity, said the statistics showed many young people were confused by the new fee system. "The Ucas statistics are not disaggregated by income, so we don't know where this fall [in applicants] is coming from, but I would bet that the most disadvantaged young people have been put off," she said.

"The figures published today show, for the most part, applications to the most competitive courses and universities. A drop in these applications shows that even the brightest young people are confused about whether to go to university. Young people we speak to say they are not being given enough information about bursaries they may be entitled to and are therefore unable to make a sensible decision about where to apply."

Richard Gould, chief executive of the Villiers Park Educational Trust, a charity that helps bright, less well-off students to attend top universities, said the figures should be a wake-up call for policymakers to properly explain the financial implications of higher fees. "We need to really get the message through that students won't be using their credit cards to pay university fees. They won't pay anything back until they earn £21,000 and even after that, their contributions won't be that high."

The figures are broken down into applicants from the UK, those from within the European Union (but outside the UK) and from outside the EU. The number of applicants from within the UK has fallen by 11.9%, and from in the EU by 9.3%, but the number from outside the EU has grown by 8.8%.

The number of applicants in England has fallen by 12.1%, in Northern Ireland by 13%, in Scotland by 11.8% and in Wales by 8.3%. Numbers of applicants from the east Midlands (down 20%), Yorkshire (17.3%) and the north-east (14.7%) have fallen furthest, the figures show. London (down 9.1%) and the south-east (8.1%) have been less affected.

Applications to education degrees have fallen by 30%, and those to business studies by 26.1%, the figures show.

Toni Pearce, vice-president of the National Union of Students, said a fall in mature students was a warning sign. "Ministers must stop tinkering around the edges of their shambolic reforms, listen to students, teachers and universities and completely overhaul their white paper before temporary chaos turns into permanent damage to our education system," she said.

David Willetts, the universities minister, said the number of applications for Oxbridge, medicine, veterinary science and dentistry had "broadly held up" compared with last year.

"Going to university depends on ability not the ability to pay," he said. "Most new students will not pay upfront, there will be more financial support for those from poorer families and everyone will make lower loan repayments than they do now once they are in well-paid jobs."

Wendy Piatt, director general of the Russell Group, which represents 20 leading universities in the UK including Oxbridge, said top universities would be "pumping millions more into financial support over the coming years".

"Students should certainly not be put off university by the new fees and funding system. If you're good enough to get in, you can afford to go.

"We will continue to urge every student with the talent, potential and ability to succeed at a Russell Group university to apply. In addition to the government's student support package and the fee waivers and bursaries that our universities offer, we will continue actively to reach out to students from all backgrounds, especially those with no family history of higher education," Piatt said.

Individual university applications have not been revealed, but government sources have suggested there is a mixed picture. A report at the weekend suggested some universities were experiencing a steep drop in demand for courses beginning next September, with one, City University London, saying applications were down 41.4%. Goldsmiths has reported a 35% drop and Brunel has 24% fewer candidates, according to figures gathered by the Sunday Times.

However, some universities, including the London School of Economics, Queen Mary and Bath, are seeing rises in applications, according to the report.

Demographic factors could also be behind a slump in applications. The number of 18-year-olds in the UK is projected to decline over the rest of this decade by about 11%.