The Evolving Meta

by Team [IHU] - 6 years ago

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Sponsored by: Hearthstats.net

The word meta is used to characterize something that is characteristically self-referential. For example, a novel may have meta elements if it refers to the fact that it is a novel, recognizes there is a reader, or contains characters who understand they exist in a fictional universe. The novel is referring back to the characteristics that make it a novel. So why do we call the ever changing landscape of Hearthstone “the meta?”

[DKMR]Varranis of team Don’t Kick My Robot is here to tell you why. Think back on times you’ve heard different classes or decks decried as “OP.” We’ve heard a lot of ire recently toward Unleash the Hounds and Starving Buzzard. Even several top players said the mechanic was not in keeping with the nature of Hearthstone and called upon Blizzard to change the cards. Before Hunter, Druid was considered OP. Before that Warlock, Mage, Priest, Rogue, nearly every class has elicited the hatred of the Hearthstone populace for doing things that are unfair.

We find these shifts in player hostility to be one of the best ways to visualize the meta. Hunter Midrange was so strong because it was difficult for Druid Midrange to defeat. Now the Hunter hatred has simmered some with Miracle Rogue stealing the limelight. Why is Miracle Rogue the new deck to beat? Because it destroys Hunter Midrange. Miracle Rogue has been around forever, but has never enjoyed the top spot in the meta like it does now.

To return to our definition of meta, the landscape of Hearthstone is called the meta because it constantly refers back to itself to determine the best deck at the moment. Hunter Midrange was widely considered the objectively strongest deck in the game a week or two ago. Is it the best deck in Hearthstone? The answer is nearly impossible to determine and mostly irrelevant. What is relevant is that Hunter Midrange loses to Miracle Rogue and now Miracle Rogue is the “best” deck. The meta will now refer to Miracle Rogue to redefine itself in a way that overcomes Miracle Rogue.

Change happens fast. Hunters are already running Snipe in order to pick off those cocky Auctioneers (Snipe also conveniently answers the now popular Kor’kron Elite). This is the most common way the meta changes: a natural progression from a strong deck to a deck that beats that deck to decks that beat the deck that beats the original deck. This progression often comes full circle, and once powerful decks regain their dominance as people play fewer cards specifically to beat that deck and focus on defeating newer decks.

There are several ways this natural circle of progression can be artificially thrown off course. The biggest mix-up comes with nerfs or new cards. Nerfs are essentially new cards, and new cards entirely change the permutations of decks possible and lead to a myriad of new strategies which impact the meta. The meta is a mess for a while, but eventually a “best” deck emerges and the meta references it to determine the next “best” deck.

Net decking can also have a severe impact on the meta. The two primary sources of net decking are innovation and major tournaments, with innovation often occurring at major tournaments. If a fantastic new deck is innovated by a top player, thousands of players looking for a strong deck will flock to it and flood the ladder. This can artificially disrupt the natural progression of the meta as the innovated deck may not be a particular response to the current “best” deck, but rather just another strong deck that does not have a particularly bad match-up against the current “best” deck. Examples of this are Shieldbearer Warlock and Hunter Midrange. When each of these decks emerged, Druid was the “best” deck.

Shieldbearer Warlock was not particularly well matched against Druid, but it could still win the match-up and was promoted by a top streamer as a budget deck. Strength, accessibility, and visibility to the deck brought it to the forefront of the meta. Eventually the meta evened out and Druid re-emerged on top. While Midrange Hunter was an innovation by a top player, it was also a response to the day’s meta of Druid and other midrange and control decks. It also happened to be reasonably inexpensive, requiring only one Legendary. While visible and accessible, the strength of the deck was the primary reason for its rise in popularity.

In many ways, Midrange Hunter was the healthiest form of meta progression. It was a natural response to the preceding “best” decks and an innovation upon previous archetypes. A stale meta would have merely brought Shaman briefly to the forefront as a counter to Druid and Warrior and the cycle would repeat until Druid was once again on top. The fact that a deck like Midrange Hunter was innovated so late in the life of the game’s initial set speaks volumes to the strategic depth of our current card pool.

Gaara’s Druid Ramp deck from Dreamhack Bucharest is another example of how the meta can be impacted by net decking. While his build of the deck was especially well made, it was not significantly innovative. However, it was an under the radar deck and a perfect choice against the field at Dreamhack. His success caused Druid to temporarily regain its popularity. Soon after Dreamhack, clones of his deck littered the ladder. Out of nowhere, it was the deck to beat.

The complete dominance of Hunter Midrange along with Gaara’s success at Dreamhack with Druid Ramp and a season reset has created an incredibly volatile meta these past few weeks. At any single moment the deck to beat changed from Hunter Midrange to its counter, Miracle Rogue, to Druid Ramp. The season reset also brought an influx of Warlock and Hunter Aggro decks as players sought to grind the first several ranks quickly. Hunter Aggro saw an especial uptick in popularity due to also having a favorable match-up against the dreaded Hunter Midrange.

The meta can even be different at different ranks. As mentioned earlier, aggressive decks tend to be favored at higher ranks (10-25). At lower ranks (9-Legend) players encounter a more competitive meta usually focused around consistent decks such as Hunter Midrange, Warrior Control, and Druid Midrange. Predicting the exact meta can be a key to success as a favorable match-up can swing things significantly in your favor.

Ultimately, the meta is driven by popularity. While power level is usually the primary driver of popularity (winning is popular), deck accessibility and visibility are also major drivers. Some players can’t afford the most powerful deck and some decks are depicted as more powerful in a particular meta due to their visibility. For example, while Druid Ramp may have been the perfect deck for Dreamhack Bucharest, it most likely isn’t the best deck for today’s ladder. Keep track of how you’re doing in the meta with www.HearthStats.net!

[DKMR]Varranis streams every Sunday from 10 AM – 4 PM EST at http://www.twitch.tv/varranis. You can find all of DKMR’s streamers on their website with times and the days they stream!

Guide written by [DKMR]Varranis

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DECKS TO WATCH OUT FOR

We’ve included a fairly basic build of Leeroy Miracle Rogue as it is probably the deck to beat at the moment. The deck was everywhere in last season’s top 16 Legends and is still giving a strong showing with many of the season’s first Legend players championing the deck. Kitkatz has continued to tech out his Warrior deck, and it remains one of the meta’s most consistent decks. Druid Midrange has solid match-ups against Rogue, Warrior, and Hunter Aggro. The build below is teched specifically to improve its Warrior, Rogue, and Hunter Midrange match-ups. Finally we have an interesting brew from Eversiction. This Miracle Warlock deck relies on prolonging the game until you can assemble a brutal Faceless Manipulator with Power Overwhelming. A doubly overwhelmed Arcane Golem copied with Faceless gives you a whopping 24 damage. Watch out if you have Coin and can pull off the same combo for 28 damage with Leeroy Jenkins.