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2014-15 Retrospective

Even when they’re losing, the Toronto Maple Leafs never take a year off.

Last season included a hot streak that had the team in a playoffs spot in December, a free fall that saw the Leafs in the mix for the right to draft Connor McDavid, coaching changes, scouting department turnover and the hiring of Lou Lamoriello.

Oh, and don’t forget about the wide-reaching roster turnover that included moving out the franchise’s biggest star and signing or acquiring myriad veterans to fill out this season’s NHL roster.

For fans of the Leafs, hockey in Toronto is never, ever dull.

All told, last season’s flameout was the final move needed to justify the complete organizational rebuild that president Brendan Shanahan and assistant GMs Kyle Dubas and Mark Hunter were seeking. Now, Leafs fans are left searching for scraps of information to learn a little about the placeholder lineup they will watch in 2015-16. Let’s take a look ahead at that roster now.

Roster Additions Roster Subtractions F – Nick Spaling F – Phil Kessel F – Shawn Matthias F – Zach Sill F – Mark Arcobello F – Greg McKegg F – P.A. Parenteau F – Jamie Devane F – Zach Hyman F – Brad Ross F – Daniel Winnik F – Tyler Biggs F – Curtis Glencross (PTO) D – Tim Erixon F – Devin Setoguchi (PTO) F – Brad Boyes (PTO) D – Martin Marincin D – Scott Harrington D – Matt Hunwick

What Would Make 2015-16 a Success?

Leafs reporter Kevin McGran recently spoke with a number of returning Leafs. The group included key players like quickly developing defenseman Morgan Rielly and the Leafs’ best remaining scorer, James van Riemsdyk. In the interviews, the players recited the expected phrases about “having a good season,” “winning as many games as possible,” and “not liking the word, ‘rebuild.'”

But make no mistake. This team is built to lose.

This roster does have a core of developing youngsters – van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Rielly, and Jake Gardiner – but the majority of the NHL roster is filled with skaters who are auditioning for roles with Stanley Cup contenders next March. Have a look, courtesy of leftwinglock.com:

The projections don’t include spares–expect defenseman Scott Harrington to be kept in reserve. At forward, the signing of Glencross, Boyes, and/or Setoguchi would bump some players out of lineup spots – likely Spaling, or Richard Panik to start.

Some thoughts on Curtis Glencross and how he fits the Maple Leafs' master plan for 2015-16: http://t.co/DwXcgkhY6Z — Matt Larkin (@THNMattLarkin) September 10, 2015

In a piece focused on the Leafs’ roster, The Hockey News‘ Matt Larkin summed the team up like this:

Note all the short-term contracts for veteran players [here]. And if the Leafs are cautious enough to only give Setoguchi and Glencross PTOs [Larkin wrote before Brad Boyes signed a PTO], those two are clearly playing for one-year deals, too. Blueliner Roman Polak and backup goaltender James Reimer will also be unrestricted free agents next summer. There’s a method to this madness. All of these guys have enough veteran value to be flippable come March for picks, even if they are mid- to low-rounders…

Where does William Nylander fit into the top 12? Can he pass any of [the] established veteran forwards? Same goes for Harrington and Percy among the top six defensemen. Looking at Toronto’s moves…is that not exactly the point here? Bury the prospects in the minors until March? Look at Babcock’s history as Detroit Red Wings coach. Kids didn’t play for him.

Larkin hits it on the nose. Shanahan and his management team have stocked the Leafs roster full of gritty veterans who will likely be playing elsewhere by the end of next year. It’s all part of the long-term draft and develop plan in Toronto. New head coach Mike Babcock has a history of turning veteran-laden clubs into playoffs contenders, but Toronto’s assortment of skaters doesn’t include anyone like Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg or Nicklas Lidstrom.

In all of this, what makes the season a success?

#Leafs prospects get some on-ice instruction from team development consultant Darryl Belfry. #TMLtalk pic.twitter.com/DEm0GLUfb8 — Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) July 8, 2015

The priority is developing for the future. The Leafs have stocked their AHL affiliate with a wide array of prospects. As Larkin suggests above, avoiding the urge to expose any prospects to the NHL prior to being fully ready is a success. To that end, the veteran options throughout the Leafs lineup should ensure that William Nylander, Connor Brown, and many others aren’t skating in the NHL until they’re ready to dominate at the NHL level.

The @NHL sets their 2016 trade deadline with a possibly stellar crop in store http://t.co/qy02O3uTMe pic.twitter.com/qcdHjoMdlw — Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 3, 2015

The next marker of a successful season in Toronto is yet another roster purge next February. The likes of Parenteau, Lupul, Bozak, Spaling, defenseman Stephane Robidas, and any of the PTO candidates should be traded for draft picks. Assistant GM Mark Hunter has a noted record of success at the draft. More picks give the team more chances at identifying future stars. As I’ve written elsewhere, the only surefire strategy to succeed in the draft is to have more picks.

At the NHL level, the Leafs core should give patient fans much to cheer for.

An underappreciated number one centre in waiting, Kadri has consistently managed first line quality scoring rates over the past three seasons. His shot generation per 60 minutes is among the best in the league. Any improvement in his shot suppression would quickly vault Kadri into the top-tier of centres league-wide. Under Babcock’s tutelage, improved defensive work seems plausible.

In search of a new winger linemate after Phil Kessel’s departure, JVR has flashed strong offensive contributions since 2012. Like Kadri, JVR has been part of great shot generation numbers, though it’s fair to wonder just how much of that success was due to Kessel’s presence. Nonetheless, the 26-year-old van Riemsdyk is known as an accurate shooter, a surprisingly good passer, and a willing net-crasher with tremendous size and reach.

He’ll be asked to do more this season as the Leafs look to replace Kessel’s contributions.

Much-maligned for his mistakes in Toronto, Gardiner’s underlying stats reveal that the offensive-minded defender has developed into an excellent all-around defenseman. His goal rate is top-pair quality and his possession work, particularly shot suppression, is absolutely elite. In Travis Yost’s latest piece on defenders, Gardiner is described as a highly capable slot and crease defender, comparable to Tampa Bay’s Anton Stralman and Calgary’s T.J. Brodie. With Babcock in Toronto, his role seems sure to grow.

Rielly flashed some puck-rushing ability last season. His scouting reports has long noted his excellent offensive instincts and mobility. He has the ability to quarterback a power play and is comfortable acting as a fourth forward, joining rushes to capitalize on prime scoring opportunities. His scoring rates have room to grow, ranking as top-four quality so far in his career.

His shot generation rates are elite but his shot suppression is almost replacement level. Rielly is another example of a young player in need of instruction on defense. Babcock seems likely to provide the necessary instruction.

What Could Derail the Leafs?

"Let's get this thing going in a way we can all be proud of." -Mike Babcock on #Leafs http://t.co/JY2UFRpwgI pic.twitter.com/byFfrW5bMi — NHL (@NHL) September 9, 2015

Interestingly, the worst thing that could happen to the Leafs next season is winning. It’s a legitimate worry that Babcock’s systems, competitive nature, and impatience will lead the Leafs to scratch out extra wins throughout the season.

Coupled with the desire of some veterans to play themselves onto a contending club and the Leafs could play themselves into 10th or so in the Eastern Conference, maybe as high as 20th-22nd in the NHL. Every extra win next season worsens the draft pick the team is likely to receive. In the long-term interests of the team, winning less now is probably more valuable. Babcock and the veterans may win enough to derail this end goal.

Is This a Playoff Team?

No, and that’s not the measuring stick right now. The Leafs are more concerned about instilling the right culture in the locker room while letting prospects develop in the AHL. The playoffs are the goal but not before 2020.