Nov 16, 2014

“Will it work this time?” asks my taxi driver in Tehran. He’s not the only one asking about the fate of the nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1. Everyone in this city wants to see the end of the tunnel. Yet, there are those who want to see the light and others who prefer to not see anything.

“A deal with the US will have a negative impact on the future of the Islamic revolution,” Majid, a law student, tells me. “We know their ways — they did it with the USSR, and now they are looking to use it with Iran.” This conservative student is just as concerned and suspicious about a nuclear deal with the United States as some of his colleagues are hopeful for a happy ending. Ali, another university student, who calls himself a religious man, says there’s a need for consensus. "We need to engage with the world," he says. "We need to try this alternative. Iran is a great country, but it’s not easy to continue this way."

During my visit to Tehran, I met a senior parliamentary official at Iran’s parliament. Iran’s policies may seem like a maze, but the parliamentary building is even more so. At his office, the official told me that the talks in Oman weren’t positive. "Nothing was achieved," he said. "The details that were discussed are very sensitive, and nobody was ready to give such sacrifices. Let’s hope in Vienna something can be done.” Yet, the official emphasized that “everything is possible in the coming round, though it’s likely that the talks are going to be extended.” The official explained the main problem: “They want Iran to limit the quantity of enriched uranium, and they refuse at the same time to terminate the sanctions on Iran. It’s like they want everything and refuse to give anything.”

Who are the winners and losers in the case of a deal or no deal? I posed this question to seasoned Iranian journalist Emad Abshenas, the former editor-in-chief of Iran Daily, an English-language newspaper published in Tehran. “It depends on the deal,” he said. “If they reach a deal that will release blocked Iranian assets and end the sanctions, then the moderates, Reformists and those in favor of getting closer to the West are going to be winners. If none of the above is achieved, then right-wing conservatives and those who are against negotiations and normalization with the US and the West would prevail.”

He added, “There’s also another group that doesn’t want a deal: those gaining billions of dollars by going around the sanctions and laundering Iranian assets. By the way, those [individuals] are extremely powerful politically and economically.”