As we approach the 2014 midterm elections in the United States — the unofficial start of Barack Obama’s lame duck presidency — it is worth considering how the once giddy European love affair with Obama will come to a close. It might not be in an acrimonious George W. Bush–style divorce, but it is likely to end in disappointment and regret. Europe had great expectations when Obama became president. A few were met, but most were not. Recall that Europe broadly opposed the U.S. occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, found Guantánamo to be a legal black hole and has become increasingly weary of continued U.S. support for Israel. At the very least, there was the hope of a move away from the insular machismo of the Bush years toward a more receptive, less hawkish global agenda. Europeans were clamoring for Obama to get up in front of them. In fact, they were clamoring for him before Bush left the stage. When Bush came to power in 2001, he inherited Bill Clinton’s European goodwill: 83 percent of British, 62 percent of French, 78 percent of German and 50 percent of Spanish citizens had a favorable opinion of the U.S. By the end of Bush’s presidency, the poll numbers had tumbled to abysmal levels. The most damning public opinion figures to come out of Europe were in relation to Bush’s global statesmanship, and the numbers were truly epic. In 2008, for example, only 14 percent of German and 13 percent of French respondents felt confident that Bush would “do the right thing in world affairs.” When asked the same question in 2009 about Obama, the numbers were astoundingly high: 93 percent and 91 percent, respectively. In his July 2008 speech in front of Berlin’s Brandenburg Gates and tens of thousands of adoring fans, Obama made a promise to Germany, Europe and the world. Should he be elected, there would be an era of “allies who will listen to each other, who will learn from each other, who will, above all, trust each other.” The Europeans bought it. He was a new American leader, a young, charismatic African-American who would reconnect the U.S. with the world, while healing racial divisions at home. An important byproduct of Obama’s win was that Europeans began to ask when Europe would elect its first minority leader. The U.S. had, at least in this respect, become a role model.

Bad romance

Where did it all go wrong? Ironically, the first cracks in the Europe-Obama romance came from the ultimate symbol of that adoration: awarding the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize to a U.S. president who had been in office a mere nine months and done little to promote peace anywhere yet. As much as Europe loved Obama, the Nobel had the dual effect of reminding Europeans of the continued U.S. occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, of the continued existence of the Guantánamo Bay prison and of just how little Obama had done to deserve the award. The journalist Peter Beaumont wrote that “the prize appears to have been awarded to Barack Obama for what he is not. For not being George Bush” and that the award would prove to be an “albatross around his neck.” In fact, Obama and his staff appeared to feel the same way.

As Obama approaches retirement in 2017, Europe will likely look back at his old promises and ask wistfully, What happened?