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The star

NDP leader Rachel Notley has followed in the footsteps of her father Grant Notley, who was Alberta NDP leader from 1968 to 1984. During that time, Grant won five seats — that’s five seats in total. Over four elections.

In fairness, the two seats he won in 1982 were enough to make him leader of the official Opposition. Welcome to Alberta.

Until recently, most expected a similar outcome for the younger Notley — a handful of seats and official opposition status. To understand what has changed, one need look no further than the rest of the left.

And all the rest

The Alberta Liberals are the only franchise in Alberta more mismanaged than the Edmonton Oilers. The only way I can explain their strategy this campaign is that they’re under the illusion they get Connor McDavid as their next leader if they finish last.

As such, they’ve spent most of the election bickering with the Alberta Party, a party formed by progressives who felt the answer to the left-wing vote split in Alberta was to create a third party to the left of the PCs. Both the Alberta Party and the Alberta Liberals seem blissfully unaware that Rachel Notley is in the process of uniting the left, simply by giving Albertans a reason to vote for her.

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That’s the surest explanation for the rise of the NDP. Despite Alberta’s reputation as a conservative backwater, progressive parties routinely collect 35 to 45 per cent of the vote in provincial elections. Those scared into voting for Redford last time have buyer’s remorse and are looking for a home. Notley is as smart, principled and genuine as anyone in opposition over the past decade — the difference is she’s also relatable. With the right divided and the left uniting behind Notley, the NDP have a legitimate shot at victory.

What will happen?

So there was Jim Prentice spending his entire debate on the attack against the NDP. It may have been partly to slow Notley’s momentum, but it likely had more to do with scaring those on the right about the prospect of an NDP government.

In the most talked about moment of the debate, Prentice chided Notley that “math is difficult.” At this point, the most difficult math problem in Alberta politics is figuring out where the PCs find enough seats to win that 13th majority. It’s not clear Prentice has the answer.

National Post

Dan Arnold blogs on politics at calgarygrit.ca.