Labor ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 election campaign

Labor remains ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 campaign, and a majority of voters believe Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday night.

The final survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the same as last week. The Coalition’s primary vote is 38.5% (up from 38% a week ago) and Labor’s is 36.2% (up from 34%).

Both major parties recorded an improvement in primary votes within the margin of error as the campaign enters its final days – the Greens are on a primary vote of 9.1% (down from 12% a week ago), One Nation on 6.6% (down from 7%) and others/independents are on 9.6% (up from 9%).

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Scott Morrison remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, but he has dropped three points in a week, slipping back to where he was just after the leadership spill last August. Morrison is preferred by 39% of the Guardian Essential survey to 32% for Shorten.

The Labor leader’s rating in the preferred prime minister question this week is his highest relative to his opponent since Morrison took the Liberal leadership – up five points since September 2018.

Shorten’s standing has also improved among Labor voters, with 69% endorsing him as preferred prime minister, up from 63%. Morrison is preferred by 80% of Coalition voters. The Labor leader is preferred by voters aged between 18 and 34 and Morrison is preferred by the over-55s.

While 59% of the sample believes Shorten will win on Saturday night, a rebound in expectations from the prevailing view last week (where 54% thought Labor would win), the Coalition’s messaging is more front-and-centre in voter’s minds as people prepare to cast their votes.

When voters were asked which news stories about the campaign they had noticed, stories about tax topped the list – which is the main negative message Morrison is pushing in the final days in an effort to stop undecided voters breaking Labor’s way.

Tax was more prominent than climate change – an issue Labor is pushing to try to court progressive protest votes both from small “l” Liberals and to try to ensure it doesn’t bleed first preference votes to the Greens.

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In the past week, voters also registered the negative news coverage of Shorten’s mother by the Daily Telegraph – a development that coincides with voters’ more favourable assessment of the Labor leader in this week’s survey – and Morrison’s egging by a protester in Albury.

Guardian Essential has tracked voter engagement through the campaign, and the data suggests voters under 34 have exhibited the lowest level of engagement of any cohort during the past four weeks, and older voters have been the most engaged.

Asked about how they planned to vote in the contest, given Australians are lodging pre-poll votes in record numbers, just under half the sample, 49% said they planned to vote on Saturday, and 20% said they would pre-poll. Eight per cent of the sample reported casting a pre-poll vote already, with the over-55s the cohort most likely to have already voted.

The advertising blackout takes effect from midnight on Wednesday, and there will be a series of opinion polls published over the coming days, including the Ipsos poll commissioned by the Nine newspapers, and Newspoll published by News Corp’s The Australian.

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With the finish line in sight, the campaigns have stepped up their tempo and both leaders are tracking around the country to make their final pitches in the swag of marginal seats that will determine Saturday night’s result.

A couple of set piece events will punctuate the final dash. Scott Morrison will speak at the National Press Club in Canberra on Thursday, and Bill Shorten will travel to Blacktown in Sydney for a speech and rally.

While Labor has been in front of the Coalition for three years, and in front in every poll during the campaign, strategists believe there will be different results in different parts of the country on Saturday night rather than a uniform national swing either to Labor or against the Coalition – a dynamic that makes the final result difficult to predict.