Signs that containment is working in Seattle

Washington State had the country’s first coronavirus case, the first death, and the first full-blown outbreak. It was also among the first to call for social distancing and tell people to stay home — and that may soon put it among the first to start turning the corner.

Deaths in the state are still rising, but more slowly than in other states. And the hospital system, which had been bracing for a critical shortage of equipment, has so far avoided being overwhelmed.

Perhaps the most encouraging evidence comes out of Seattle, which has seen a significant drop in its infection rate. In early March, infected people were spreading the virus to 2.7 other people on average. The figure appears to have fallen now to 1.4.

“That’s great news and a great trend,” said Mike Baker, our Seattle bureau chief. But there’s a caveat, he said: “They really need to get that number below 1 to get active infections to actually begin decreasing.”

Intriguing data from Kinsa, a medical technology firm, seems to show a rapid drop in the number of people with fevers — which can be a telltale symptom of most coronavirus infections — in places that have issued stay-at-home orders, restaurant closures and other strict measures.

The data comes from the firm’s more than one million internet-connected thermometers in use across the country. For example, noticeably fewer fevers were recorded in Manhattan after schools and bars there were closed.

“It looks like a way to prove that social distancing works,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine expert at Vanderbilt University’s medical school. “But it does show that it takes the most restrictive measures to make a real difference.”