In the United States, 260,000 people work in the solar energy industry, and 88,000 of them—more than the coal industry’s entire workforce—may be at risk of losing their jobs.



That’s the message the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) is pushing ahead of January 26, the deadline for President Donald Trump to make a crucial decision that could shape the future of the U.S. solar industry. The question is whether China will continue to be allowed to abundantly and inexpensively export solar panels and solar cells to the United States.

At least 40 percent of solar panels in America are Chinese-made, and their low cost is partially why the United States has seen stunning increases in the amount of solar-powered electricity, and concomitant price decreases, over the last decade. But in a petition filed in June, two foreign-owned solar manufacturing companies with operations in the United States—SolarWorld and Suniva—argued that Chinese companies are engaging in unfair competition. In October, the U.S. International Trade Commission agreed, and recommended the Trump administration limit imports and impose tariffs of 10 to 35 percent on Chinese solar products.

A draft White House document recently obtained by Politico signals that Trump’s White House is poised to accept these recommendations, which would force Chinese suppliers to hike their prices for American buyers. Though many Chinese solar products are already tariffed to varying degrees, the current situation still allows China to “unfairly profit from Americans’ use of renewable power and gain influence in the developing world’s energy infrastructure,” the document reads. Theoretically, new tariffs will level the playing field for American solar equipment manufacturers, allowing them to thrive.

This is a near-perfect representation of Trump’s “America First” trade policy. But SEIA, the solar industry’s trade group, says tariffs on Chinese solar products will take America from first to dead last. After all, China was the main reason why world prices of solar panels dropped 80 percent from 2008 and 2013, and those price reductions caused huge increases in U.S. solar installations. In 2016, solar became the largest source of new electric generating capacity for the first time. What happens if prices rise again because of tariffs?