Instead of asking what the future holds for China, Richard N. Haass is wondering, which China will "prevail"? He has in mind either "a strong country, with a promising future despite some short-term difficulties, or as a country facing serious structural problems and uncertain long-term prospects".

There is no doubt that each country can have "a promising future", while grappling with "short-term difficulties" or even "serious structural problems". It's up to each country to forge its own destiny and improve its prospects. No doubt China is in a crisis and needs political reforms. Yet, there is little reason for "observers, fearing a rising China", to indulge in schadenfreude and "breathe a sigh of relief at its current difficulties". The country has been through hardships in history.

Xi Jinping should seize the opportunity to implement reforms, since he is seen as the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. He has power resources at his disposal, like personal popularity and national pride that his "China Dream" has earned. His top-down approach is said to be change through evolution and not revolution. He has once said the demise of the Soviet Union was triggered by rapid changes under Mikhail Gorbachev.

Since he came to office, he has been facing enormous challenges - economic slowdown, declining birthrate, environmental degradation etc. He is trying to steer a byzantine economy and a divided society through difficult times, while seeking to lead and establish control over the party, state, military and what there is of civil society. In order to lend legitimacy to the Communist Party, Xi urges party members to maintain their devotion to the party and the people. He goes to great lengths to purge and discipline those seen as corrupt.

What he has promoted is mélange of convictions and practices. China practises state capitalism, and Xi presents his "China Dream" in a package of old-school Marxist Leninism, Maoism and Confucianism. Mao is revered as the founder of the People's Republic and Confucian values are seen as a bedrock of a benign social order and loyalty to the state. In fact Xi is conducting a political experiement in China. In the short to medium term, it’s likely that his stratagem will keep not only the party in power but the population in check, securing his formal tenure of power.

Haass says, "the one certainty is that the next three decades will not mirror the last three". This is generally true for all countries, but with authoritarian regimes, the likelihood is higher that the vagaries of a revolution will always have unpredictable consequences.