WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Analysts are bracing for a jobs report on Friday that -- in contrast to the more positive past employment data of this year -- is expected to range somewhere between bad and plain awful.

"Double-dip fears are the tune of the moment," said the economic team at RDQ Economics in a note to clients.

For most of the year, the job data was widely expected to confirm the recession was over and the economy was back on firm footing.

Job growth of 208,000 in March and 290,000 in April seemed to suggest as much. Analysts were frustrated as other data failed to confirm the good news.

Then came the disappointing 41,000 gain in private jobs in May, telling a different story of a very, very grudging labor market and an economy that is losing momentum as government stimulus wanes. Spending and confidence data has seemed to confirm this grim view.

Reports earlier this year allowed investors to live in "fantasy land," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. The May report was the only one that "made sense" given the other data, he said.

Shapiro expects only a 50,000-gain in private sector jobs in June.

The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists conducted at the beginning of the week called for 115,000 private sector jobs created. See economic calendar.

While this would be an improvement from 41,000 jobs created May, it would still be disappointing, said Mike Moran, economist at Daiwa Securities. Only job growth above 150,000 would be considered a positive development, Moran said.

Economists are focusing this month on "private sector" jobs because it is a virtual certainty that there will be a big drop in total payrolls. The government has already announced that it let go 250,000 temporary census workers in June. As a result, economists expect total payroll to drop by 130,000 in June after rising 431,000 last month.

Economists expect the jobless rate to tick up to 9.8% in June from 9.7% in May.

"I don't think it is coming down anytime soon," said Shapiro.

Long-time unemployment workers who are not counted on official statistics because they've given up looking for work will rush back into the labor market at the first sign of improvement, putting continued upward pressure on the jobless rate, Shapiro said.

The most recent data on the job market has been troublesome. Jobless claims rose 13,000 to 472,000 in the latest week and the four-week moving average rose to its highest level since the beginning of the month. Read MarketWatch complete report on jobless claims data.

In another sign of tepid growth, U.S. private-sector firms created a lackluster 13,000 jobs in June, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. See full story.

The economic team at Action Economics said the data has taken a 20,000 chunk out of their prior payroll forecast. They now see only 80,000 private sector jobs created in June.