Polls: Trump draws closer against Clinton in Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton’s advantage over Donald Trump in the battleground state of Wisconsin has taken a hit in recent weeks, according to the results of two polls released Wednesday.

Among people likely to vote in November, 43 percent in the Monmouth University poll said they would vote for Clinton, while 38 percent chose Trump, with 7 percent for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, 3 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein and 8 percent undecided among those candidates. Independents are split between the two major party candidates, with 37 percent backing Trump, 34 percent for Clinton, 10 percent for Johnson and 6 percent for Stein.

In a Marquette University survey of likely voters also announced Wednesday afternoon, Clinton's head-to-head advantage over Trump fell to just 3 percentage points, 45 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent saying they would not support either candidate.

Clinton’s 5-point lead in the Monmouth poll and 3-point edge in the Marquette survey in a four-way match-up and head-to-head represent a significant decrease in her margin over Trump in the state, which has not voted for a Republican candidate since a majority backed President Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale in 1984. Clinton’s favorability also returned to a similar pre-convention level, with 58 percent holding a negative opinion of her and 35 percent positive. In the early August Marquette survey, Clinton’s approval stood at 43 percent, with disapproval at 53 percent.

Before Wednesday’s poll displayed a tighter result, Marquette University’s survey conducted earlier this month showed Clinton with a substantial 15-point head-to-head lead over Trump. The same poll included a four-way ballot test after the head-to-head question, with Clinton leading Trump by 13 points — 47 percent to 34 percent.

Marquette University’s poll was in the field from last Thursday through Sunday, surveying 650 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Monmouth conducted its survey from Saturday through Tuesday, surveying a random sample of 404 likely voters, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

In the Monmouth survey Trump is outperforming 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney among white men, leading by 22 points (51 percent to 29 percent) in a demographic the former Massachusetts governor won by 14 points (56 percent to 42 percent). But among white women, Trump is underperforming Romney, drawing 33 percent to Clinton’s 50 percent, compared with Romney’s 46 percent against President Barack Obama, who earned 53 percent of that group in 2012.

Overall, Trump’s 2-point Monmouth lead among white voters (42 percent to 40 percent) is similar to the 3-point margin Romney had with that group four years ago (51 percent to 48 percent). Clinton holds a 55-point lead among black, Hispanic and Asian voters (67 percent to 12 percent), while Obama won by 60 points with those voters in 2012.

Clinton leads Trump by 6 points — 45.2 percent to 38.8 percent — in the POLITICO Battleground States Polling Average for Wisconsin, encompassing surveys back to the middle of June.

Despite the Democratic nominee holding a slimmer advantage in the presidential race, the Monmouth poll also showed former Sen. Russ Feingold with a 13-point lead against incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson.

More than half — 54 percent of likely voters in the Monmouth poll — said they will vote for Feingold, while 41 percent said they are supporting Johnson, with 2 percent for Libertarian Phil Anderson and 3 percent undecided.

Feingold has the support of 92 percent of Clinton voters, while 6 percent of those backing the former secretary of state said they are casting their ballot for Johnson, whom 84 percent of Trump voters said they will support. And 15 percent of Trump backers said they are voting for Johnson’s Democratic opponent.

But in the Marquette poll, Feingold is clinging to a 3-point lead over Johnson, 45 percent to 42 percent, with Anderson at 6 percent.