“Iraq . . . refuses to be a station used to harm any other country,” said Sistani, an extremely influential figure who typically delivers his opinions privately through intermediaries or through a representative during Friday prayer sermons.

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Several political factions that are usually at odds, including those backed by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and a coalition representing several Iran-aligned militias, have called for fast-tracking a bill that would recommend severely limiting the number and activity of U.S. forces in Iraq when parliament reconvenes next month.

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Any change to the approximately 5,200-strong U.S. military presence in Iraq could have dire consequences for years.

According to a report released this week, the Pentagon has concluded that Iraqi security forces will need “years, if not decades” to be able to fight the Islamic State or any other terrorist threat without American support. Iraqi security forces, including military and police, still require help with complicated intelligence gathering, even basic infantry techniques, the report issued by the Defense Department inspector general found. “The [Iraqi security forces] will likely rely on the Coalition for years to fill [Iraqi security forces] gaps in intelligence capabilities and deficiencies in ‘command and control, leadership, physical resilience, and ability to execute basic minor infantry tactics.’ "

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The sobering reality about the capabilities of Iraq’s security apparatus comes as the Islamic State has been able to stage sustained but low-level attacks in rural areas despite losing all of the territory it once controlled.

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After Iraqi forces backed by U.S. airstrikes and American advisers on the ground reclaimed the city of Mosul in 2017, U.S. military officers and diplomats praised the newfound professionalism of the Iraqi security forces. Just three years earlier, the majority of Iraq’s army and police capitulated in the face of the Islamic State blitz. The United States spent $1.6 billion in the two years that followed 2014 collapse to rebuild the Iraqi military into a force capable of reclaiming territory.

The elite, U.S.-trained Counter Terrorism Service has been described by U.S. officials as the most capable fighting force in the entire Middle East. But at approximately 10,000 troops, it is a small fraction of the Iraqi security apparatus.

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The inspector general’s report acknowledged improved security in Iraq’s large cities, which has lead to the removal of thousands of security barriers and the limited reopening of Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone to the general public. But the report also identified significant gaps in security presence in rural areas that the Islamic State has exploited.

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Most important, however, the report stated that Iraq’s intelligence capabilities were severely hampered by a lack of structure and information sharing between security agencies. U.S. officials have said sustaining Iraq’s victory over extremists would require shifting from combat to counterterrorism work, which relies heavily on intelligence gathering.

The changes needed for Iraq to be able to conduct such operations without coalition support are “unlikely to occur in the near-term” the report says. “For the foreseeable future, the [Iraqi security forces] would have an ‘enduring requirement’ for signals intelligence and ground monitoring of enemy movements provided by the Coalition,” the report states, citing coalition officials.

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