The blue island of Clewiston will be vital for Democrats in FL25

Democrats nationwide have been waiting for tomorrow for the last two years. Democrats in Florida are no different. A lot is riding on tomorrow’s elections for Governor, Senator, and 7 flippable house seats, but to pull off the elusive “Blue Wave” in Florida, the energized base needs to convince Democratic voters that usually stay on the midterm sidelines to make it out to the polls. With almost 60 million fewer voters in 2014 than in 2016 nationwide, activists and party leaders know there are a lot of these intermittent voters out there. But, just closing that gap isn’t the answer — Trump won Florida with high turnout in 2016 — Democrats need to turn out Democratic voters. The million, or 5.2 billion, dollar question is how to do that. And to know how to do that, GOTV operations, operating on a scale we’ve never seen before for a midterm election, need to know where those voters are.

In the age of public datasets, we can generate a quantitative approach to finding these voters. By analyzing precinct results between the 2014 and 2016 elections, we can determine which precincts have the most voters that sat on the sideline in 2014 but made their voice heard in 2016. These are the voters that Florida Democrats need if they want to deliver a big night.

Below are the 7 precincts in the 7 flippable house districts that provide the most bang for their buck. If you are a Democrat GOTVing today or tomorrow, these precincts provide areas that are measured in square blocks rather than square kilometers with hundreds of potential Democratic votes. Focusing on these areas could make the difference in what is shaping up to be a very close election. Another great way to get involved is through official channels of the Florida Democratic Party.

I’ll caveat here that public datasets at precinct level granularity aren’t especially clean. There are missing data entries and some precincts change districts from year to year. Some precincts had to be dropped from the analysis because of this. So, this analysis should be taken with a grain of salt, but it should also provide good direction for finding persuadable D voters.

Screenshots from the precinct level NYTimes map for the 2016 presidential election are included to understand the context a little better. I’ve also highlighted places with a high “value per interaction” metric of (% of voters that sit out) * (% of voters that vote D — % that vote R), which gives the expected D vote gain of an interaction with someone who votes. All data is provided so that if you can pursue a personal analytical approach. This data can also be useful to Republicans, although R voters will tend to be more spread out. The most important part is that you keep an infectious excitement about the candidates and the causes, better to have that in the reddest of districts than be a downer in the bluest (or vice versa).

District 6: Volusia 620

Volusia 620 sees 96.6% Democratic voters, but over a thousand 2016 voters didn’t make it to the polling booths in 2014. Low turnout in this 10 square block area cost Democrats 975 net votes (the net votes figure is the number of expected D votes minus expected R votes from the non-participating voters). It didn’t much matter because the election was lost by 66,000 votes, but 538 is giving a 25% chance of an upset this year. These votes could be huge. Value per interaction here is the highest value in the set at almost 0.65 votes per interaction with a 2016 voter that goes on to vote in 2018.

District 15: Hillsborough 753

HIL 753 is in a different district than Tampa (but close enough for Tampa residents to make a trip.)

Hillsborough 753 gives 70.0% of its votes to the Democratic House candidate on average over the past 2 elections, and almost 900 voters who were motivated in 2016 stayed home in 2014. Dems lost 353 net votes because of it. This year, 538 is giving Dems a 41% chance with a predicted margin of only 3,000 votes, so high turnout here alone would go a long way. HIL 964 leads value per interaction, yielding 0.35 D votes.

District 16: Sarasota 115

Sarasota 115 votes D 80.4% of the time, but its 1,564 voters missed out on a 2014 election that saw Republicans run away with the district. This is the year for Sarasota’s voters to have their voice heard, with a D victory falling within the margin of error of 538's projection. Dems would be expected to net 953 votes (1258.3 to the GOP’s 305.7) if turnout matches 2016 levels. Manatee 205 leads in value per interaction, at 0.31D voters.

District 18: St. Lucie 17

St. Lucie 17 is a uniquely strong performer for Democrats. 538’s Projections here have turned south for the Democrats based largely on a single poll, but Cook and Sabato have kept a lean R rating. This is the type of seat D’s will win in a blue wave, and scooping up the net 539 extra votes here, and a few hundred next door, will be absolutely required. Neighboring St Lucie 18 leads value per interaction at 0.35 D votes.

District 25: Hendry 1

Hendry 1 is based in the small town of Clewiston, FL. With a population of 7,000, its a place that could see a critical mass of energy push turnout far beyond 2014’s figures. Democrats hope that energy takes hold, as in 2014 Ds lost 460 net votes from people staying home. A strong GOTV operation here would move what 538 sees as a Lean R election that will be decided by fewer than 10,000 votes closer to tossup territory. Value per interaction agrees, at 0.23.

District 26: Dade 813

Dade 813 is a precinct surrounded by Democratic precincts, meaning there are lots of opportunities here. The data shows 20+ precincts in District 26 that have 100+ expected net D votes if turnout reaches 2016 levels, combining for over 5,000 net votes. In a race that as of this writing 538 is projecting at within 2,000 votes, turnout in just a few of those precincts could make all the difference. Value per interaction goes to Dade 936, at 0.41D voters.

District 27: Dade 41

Dade 41 could seal the deal in an election that Donna Shalala is favored in. Turning out voters here could net 443 D votes. These are the elections that Democrats need to shore up to still have a shot at the House even if a “Blue Wave” doesn’t come crashing down tomorrow. Here again there are a lot of D voters to energize all around the area. Nearby Dade 43 provides expected 0.25D votes, and the area all around Miami Beach provides good pickup opportunities for Democrats.

Summary

While a lot of focus is put on a growing national divide, looking at the precinct level results highlights how diverse each district is, and how much of a political divide can exist within such a small area. This makes it especially important to operate GOTV operations intelligently, with a focus on areas that are going to drive target voters. In tomorrow’s election, Florida D’s in these 7 districts get a 3 for 1 vote on elections being closely watched around the nation, with close races for Governor, Senator, and the House. So whether you have 5 minutes or 5 hours, hopefully this guide has helped you outline where to go first as you continue to convert the energy of protests and marches into votes. And if you don’t have time to get other citizens voting, remember to do it yourself!

Vote on November 6.