Polls show Sen. Bill Nelson building lead over Gov. Rick Scott in Florida Senate race

Ledyard King | USA TODAY

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Two new independent polls suggest Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson might be inching away from Republican challenger Rick Scott in a hotly contested, nationally watched Senate race rated for months as a toss-up.

Nelson, the three-term incumbent, leads Scott, Florida's two-term governor, by 6 percentage points — 52 percent to 46 percent — among the state's likely voters, a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday shows. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

On Sunday, a poll conducted for CNN which also relied on likely Florida voters found Nelson up by 5 percentage points — 50 percent to 45 percent — over Scott. That poll, conducted by SSRS, an independent research company, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

Both polls show Nelson doing well among minorities and women, while Scott is leading among whites and males. The CNN poll also shows younger voters leaning for Nelson while those 65 and over breaking for Scott. The Quinnipiac poll indicates a large edge for Nelson among independents.

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said the Democrat enjoys another advantage: personal appeal.

"Nelson is just better liked," Brown said. "Florida likely voters view him favorably by 10 percentage points, and see Gov. Scott unfavorably by five points."

The race is considered one of the nation's marquee matchups that could decide which party controls the Senate next year. Republicans currently hold 51 of the chamber's 100 seats.

It's also likely to end up as the most expensive.

Both candidates spent more than $70 million combined through Sept. 30 with Scott spending $52 million of that including nearly $39 million of his own fortune, according to Federal Election Commission records. Independent groups have chipped in another $14.6 million with Nelson's allies accounting for most of those expenditures.

A Quinnipiac poll last month found the race a dead heat. Over the past few weeks, Scott has won kudos for his performance leading the state through Hurricane Michael's destruction, but has also faced criticism for not doing enough to address devastating algae blooms and has had to navigate voter anger directed at President Donald Trump.

On the heels of both independent polls, Scott's campaign released an internal poll of likely voters conducted by GOP consulting firm OnMessage Inc. showing Scott leading Nelson by five points — 51 percent to 46 percent — based on interviews with 2,200 likely Florida voters.

"With two weeks until election day Gov. Scott is in the best position he's been in this entire campaign, and is poised to win a decisive victory on November 6th," OnMessage Partner Wes Anderson wrote in an email to the Scott campaign accompanying the poll results. The Scott campaign shared the email with reporters.