Sen. Elizabeth Warren speaks with reporters in Hampton Falls, N.H., September 2, 2019. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has the same top three leading everyone else and Biden, as has been the case for months, in first. But Warren has made notable gains:

National NBC/WSJ poll on 2020 Dem race Biden 31% (+5 from July)

Warren 25% (+6)

Sanders 14% (+1)

Buttigieg 7% (even)

Harris 5% (-8)

Yang 4% (+2)

Klobuchar 2% (+1)

Booker 2% (+1) No other Dem got more than 1% Sept 13-16, 506 Dem primary voters, MOE +/- 4.4% — Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) September 17, 2019

This is where it has felt the race has headed for a while, with Warren steadily climbing in the polls and drawing big crowds. She’s also strong on enthusiasm in the new poll and has the most support as a second choice:

The big news for Warren in this poll? She leads on enthusiasm, best combined 1st and 2nd choice of any candidate. For Biden? He’s still leading on 1st choice, still dominating among African American voters, older Dems & those who call themselves mod/conservative https://t.co/nNaQAvvBWf — Carrie Dann (@CarrieNBCNews) September 17, 2019

She’s not necessarily an immediate threat to Joe Biden, but she certainly is to Bernie Sanders. Which is why I don’t think the non-aggression pact between the two can last.