Folks, there’s nothing that annoys me more than when something I agree with was researched in what looks to me to be just a touch on the shoddy side. I found an article (popular on Reddit as well as at least one person sending it to me), that shows a British research group, ORB, calculating 1.2 million deaths in Iraq.

When those responsible for the American war in Iraq face a public reckoning for their colossal crimes, the weekend of September 15-16, 2007 will be an important piece of evidence against them. On Friday, September 14 there were brief press reports of a scientific survey by the British polling organization ORB, which resulted in an estimate of 1.2 million violent deaths in Iraq since the US invasion.

That is a baffling number. That’s simply violent deaths, which would mean that roughly 5% or more of the country has died violently since March of 2003. To put it in perspective, imagine if 15 million Americans had died in the same time period, or roughly 9710 people killed violently per day. Bloodshed on that level is simply staggering.

However, the methodology of this is a bit… questionable. Looking over on ORB’s website, we see how this number was tabulated.

In conjunction with their Iraqi fieldwork agency a representative sample of 1,499 adults aged 18+ answered the following question:- QHow many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof. None 78%

One 16%

Two 5%

Three 1%

Four or more 0.002% Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597 households this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the invasion in 2003.

So then. The ORB didn’t check with the Iraqi morgues or have on hand records of actual documented deaths. Like the 600,000 estimate from a year ago, this figure was made by polling a handful of people and then extrapolating the data across the entire population.

I’m not saying the number is wrong, I’m simply saying that to look at this as evidence that the American media is hiding a report that “shows” over a million Iraqis have been killed is a bit misleading. Take it in contrast to the IBC Project, which deals solely with provable, documented violent deaths and pegs the number at just under 80,000.

Given that there are slews of hidden graves littered about Iraq as well as the fallibility of morgues releasing figures when so many have admitted to being backed up and unable to deal with the bodies coming in, I have no doubts that the IBC’s estimate is far on the low side. However I’d also wager that the ORB’s is on the high, indeed the earlier estimate had a margin of error of nearly 30% so imagine what this one is. As with so much in life, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.

I don’t even suggest forming conclusions based on polls of pure opinion unless they’re put within context of others (i.e. Bush’s approval rating being so dismal is only believable because the dozens of polls are so consistent). Taking one poll that extrapolates body counts of all things is not a good idea. It definitely lets you say “hey, the official count of less than a hundred thousand is probably WAY low,” but suddenly claiming the massacre is on level with Rwanda and Sudan is jumping the gun just a tad.

So please, I’m beggin’ you guys, if you find something like this, find out where it came from. Don’t take something like this and say “Over a million Iraqis have been killed so far! Why is no one outraged??” unless you’ve seen how the number was tabulated and have concluded it to be accurate.