As in past polls on tax reform, support or opposition to the House plan, H.R. 1 (115), broke sharply along partisan lines. Poll: Plurality supports House tax plan, but many expect to pay more

A plurality of voters supports the tax overhaul the House passed last week, though many also believe it will raise their taxes, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

Based on what they’ve seen, read or heard about the bill, 39 percent of those surveyed said they “strongly” or “somewhat” support it, while 31 percent oppose it and the rest are undecided. Support ticked up to 41 percent and opposition dropped to 29 percent after respondents were told about key details of the plan.


However, 36 percent expect to pay more federal, state and local taxes under the plan, despite Republicans touting it as a tax cut for most Americans. Twenty percent said it would lower their taxes and 19 percent said they would stay about the same. Twenty-five percent weren’t sure what affect it would have on them or offered no opinion.

Most of those who expect to pay more — 44 percent of the respondents — put their income at $100,000 or more. Among those with $50,000 to $100,000 in annual income, 39 percent said they would pay more. And 33 percent of those earning less than $50,000 expect a tax hike.

As in past polls on tax reform, support or opposition to the House plan broke sharply along partisan lines. Among Republicans, 69 percent back the House bill and 10 percent oppose it. Democratic opposition stood at 48 percent, and support at 24 percent. Thirty-two percent of independents said they support the plan and 28 percent oppose it.

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The respondents’ views of how the tax plan would affect them personally also fell along partisan lines, with 47 percent of Democrats expecting a tax hike compared to 29 percent of Republicans.Among the most popular provisions of the legislation: Boosting the child tax credit (64 percent support), doubling the standard deduction (59 percent), cutting the tax rate for many small businesses (58 percent), and maintaining a top tax rate of 39.6 percent for married couples earning more than $1 million a year (48 percent).

On one of the most contentious parts of the House bill, largely eliminating the state and local tax deduction while maintaining a property tax deduction capped at $10,000, a plurality of those surveyed — 35 percent — said it should not be in the bill. Thirty-two percent said it should be part of the bill and the rest had no opinion or didn’t know.

Most voters — 38 percent — oppose the plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent. But 35 percent support it.

The poll of 2,586 registered voters was conducted Nov. 16-19. It has an error margin of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2jJyZnX | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2jglVT4