In this past week’s episode, Team USA voted their teammate into an elimination for the second straight time after winning a daily challenge. It was a remarkable feat that the internet is lambasting as a dumb move. I’ll note, doing it the first time was a slightly wrong move because it created a slippery slope and put a target on those who began the chain. However, once the chain begins, it becomes an individual game where players have to figure out what is best for them.

While people are roasting Cara for “emotionally” voting in Johnny; it was a brilliant move as her alliance now holds at least 50% of the US team votes. That means Cara and her alliance have virtually guaranteed the only way they will go into elimination is via the opposing team. War of the Worlds 2 is not Team USA vs. Team UK; it’s a battle within two sides to try and get your alliance as far as you can into the game.

During the previous week, we saw Team UK create a divide in a 7–6 vote between Dee and Kyle for who wanted to be the speaker. Neither player is the head of the snake of their alliance. The votes dispersed were telling of which side each player is on. While building the best team for the final is essential; you have to make it to the final first for it to matter. This game is a battle of self-dependence. Players must learn to survive in any way they can. Whether it’s floating or attacking the game head-on, players must battle their team to figure out how to get a spot in the final. Honestly, this season is an augmented version of the Island, rather than any other team season we’ve had before.

I attempted to break down the four major alliances in the game and the chain of command within each. As well as the individual allegiances of said alliances. It’s difficult keeping up with every social interaction and all social media drama. If you know something about the relationships between different players, feel free to note in the comments, wherever you see this article.

US CIVIL WAR

Team Cara and Paulie

I feel bad calling this team Cara and Paulie, but they are the two most prominent figures on their side, and while they might not always be the one creating the moves, they will have their hand-prints on any gun when taking the shot at someone on the other side. I estimate the ranking of people within their alliances as such:

| #1 FEMALE: Cara Maria

| #2 FEMALE: Kam

| #3 FEMALE: Ashley

| #4 FEMALE: Ninja

| #1 ENEMY: Tori

| #2 ENEMY: Nany

| #1 MALE: Paulie

| #2 MALE: Turbo

| #3 MALE: Leroy (floater)

| #4 MALE: Zach (floater)

| #1 Enemy: Jordan

| #2 Enemy: Josh

Although Leroy has been in Jordan’s alliance, part of his allegiance is dependent upon the contingency that Bananas would still be in the game. Without his #1 male ally, Leroy is potentially a free agent again. Historically, Leroy and Cara have been cool, and more than anything, Kam and Leroy still have a strong bond. They’re a modern Dunbar/Paula, except much less problematic.

Cara and Paulie are at the top of the alliance, which is crucial because even though they call the shots of their alliance, they will also be the #1 target for the opposing side. I list Turbo #2 as Cara and Paulie as they aligned on War of the Worlds. Being at the top of the alliance is only a good thing once you have eliminated the other side completely. Until then, the other side will take shots at the top. Kam is second in the alliance as she and Cara have a more stable relationship than Ashley. Likewise, her relationship with Kayleigh as a connection to the other side makes her a huge asset. Ashley is above Ninja mostly because I trust Ashley’s ability as a politician to get in people’s ears.

After Paulie’s move this week, Josh has shifted from a floater to an enemy. Nany and Josh could get thrown in first as they are weaker players than Tori and Jordan, but Tori and Jordan are the heads of their alliance snake.

Team Jordan and Tori

The side opposing Cara and Paulie’s alliance. Their alliance follows an order like this (I think):

| 1 FEMALE: Tori

| 2 FEMALE: Nany

| 1 ENEMY: Cara

| 2 ENEMY: Kam

| 3 ENEMY: Ninja

| 4 ENEMY: Ashley

| 1 MALE: Jordan

| 2 MALE: Zach (floater)

| 3 MALE: Leroy (floater)

| 4 MALE: Josh

| 1 ENEMY: Paulie

| 2 ENEMY: Turbo

While this side has fewer people who are firmly aligned, they have Jordan. If anyone can systematically eliminate his own team, it’s Jordan. Notice, Josh is not the #2 guy within the Jordan and Tori side despite him being more aligned with them than Zach/Leroy. Essentially, Jordan values Zach and Leroy’s abilities as competitors more than Josh; thus, Josh is lower on the totem pole. Likewise, they target Ninja and Kam more than Ashley because they do understand Ashley’s value as potentially fleeing to their side in the scenario they are able to flip the numbers back to their side.

The move to vote in Bananas drastically hurt this alliance.

Each Players 4 Biggest Allies in order Left to Right (Male and Females, 1–2)

Cara: Paulie, CT, Kam, Ninja

Kam: Leroy, Paulie, Kayleigh, Cara

Ashley: Turbo, Kyle (?), Cara ?, Kam ?

Ninja: Turbo, Paulie, Dee, Cara

Tori: Jordan, Zach, Nany, Ashley ?

Nany: Leroy, Jordan, Tori, n/a

Paulie: Turbo, Theo (?), Cara, Ninja

Turbo: Paulie, Josh, Ninja, Georgia

Leroy: CT, Zach, Kam, Tori

Zach: Kyle, Jordan, Tori, Nany

Jordan: Zach, Josh (?), Tori, Nany

Josh: Turbo, Zach, Georgia, Tori (?)

UK CIVIL WAR

Team Theo and Bear

Theo made a statement last week by asking for CT in elimination. He is drawing a line in the sand and he sees the direction the game is going in. Theo is a strong player who wants to win it all. Their alliance order goes as:

| #1 FEMALE: Georgia

| #2 FEMALE: Jenny

| #3 FEMALE: Nicole

| #1 ENEMY: Dee

| #2 ENEMY: Kayleigh

| #3 ENEMY: Esther

| #1 MALE: Theo

| #2 MALE: Bear

| #3 MALE: Kyle (half floater)

| #1 ENEMY: Rogan

| #2 ENEMY: Idris

| #3 ENEMY: Joss

| #4 ENEMY: CT (half floater)

Georgia, Theo, and Bear were aligned together on the first War of the Worlds, and their bond is still strong this time around. Despite Nicole being Georgia’s best friend, Jenny’s performance as a competitor has her valued higher within the team. Dee’s connection to Rogan makes her the female they want to target. However, Esther being the weak link in challenges could force their hand to throw her in first.

In terms of the male competition, Kyle wants to play the game with Theo and Bear as he prefers them, but his natural proclivity to the middle is always in force. Kyle would rather float to the other side than throw himself in; it just might be too late. If it is possible, CT is smart enough to flip sides.

Team Joss and Rogan and Dee and Kayleigh and maybe CT

This group reminds me of the alliance that formed in the Shelter on Invasion. It’s not that there’s any one thing keeping this group together, but it’s essentially just an alliance to combat the Theo/Bear/Georgia trifecta. It was incredibly telling that this seeming minority was the majority when Dee got voted in speaker over Kyle.

| #1 FEMALE: Dee

| #2 FEMALE: Kayleigh

| #3 FEMALE: Esther

| #1 ENEMY: Georgia

| #2 ENEMY: Nicole

| #3 ENEMY: Jenny

| #1 MALE: Rogan

| #2 MALE: Joss

| #3 MALE: CT (half floater)

| #4 MALE: Idris

| #1 ENEMY: Theo

| #2 ENEMY: Bear

| #3 ENEMY: Kyle (half floater)

CT’s part in the alliance is fascinating. While CT leads the team in daily challenges, he often takes a back seat in the voting and kind of expects himself to be safe. He values Dee and Joss because they regard him highly and want him to go the final. However, CT probably realizes that Dee is likely the only girl in his “alliance” who could potentially succeed in a final. Rogan and Joss have to be grateful for Kayleigh and Dee as two are definitely the brains of their group. Meanwhile, their friendship and confidence bring stability to the group. It almost reminds me of Amanda and Ashley with Hunter and Nelson on Invasion.

Each Players 4 Biggest Allies in order Left to Right (Male and Female, 1–2)

Georgia: Bear, Josh, Nicole, Jenny

Jenny: Kyle, Theo, Georgia, Nicole ?

Nicole: Kyle, Theo, Georgia, Jenny

Dee: Rogan, Joss, Ninja, Kayleigh ?

Kayleigh: Joss, Kyle, Kam, Dee ?

Esther: ??, Dee, Kayleigh

Theo: Bear, Kyle, Georgia, Jenny

Bear: Theo, Kyle, Georgia, Kayleigh

Kyle: Zach, Joss, Georgia, Kayleigh

Rogan: Joss, CT, Dee, Kayleigh

Joss: Rogan, Kyle, Kayleigh, Dee

Idris: ??, Dee, Kayleigh

CT: Leroy, Zach, Cara, Dee ?