With Rob Ford in rehab, the Toronto mayoral campaign has suddenly undergone a dramatic shift in focus.

Until Ford’s latest self-implosion and decision to seek help for booze and drug abuse, the overriding issue in the race for most voters was simply the need to get rid of the disgraced mayor.

“Anybody But Ford” was the mantra for voters fed up with the lying, boozing and foul-mouthed mayor.

For them, any candidate – Olivia Chow, John Tory, Karen Stintz or David Soknacki – would be preferable to Ford.

Now, though, the campaign is all about stopping Chow.

Indeed, there’s a small, yet growing “Anybody-But-Chow” theme emerging in the race.

Chow, who has led all mayoral polls over the past year, is considered almost as much a polarizing and divisive candidate as Ford. Her negative ratings are high and the number of people who tell pollsters they would never vote for her is second only to Ford. On the other hand, significantly fewer voters say they would “never” vote for Tory.

The latest poll, released by Forum Research late last week after Ford announced he was putting his campaign on hold, indicated Chow has 33 per cent support, Tory 27 per cent and Ford 22 per cent. Stintz and Soknacki are far behind in the 5-to-7-per-cent range.

Rightly or wrongly, many voters dislike Chow, who they perceive as a “tax-and-spend NDPer” who would champion “leftie” causes, spend tax dollars recklessly and ignore the suburbs. Without Ford in the race, conservative voters would want to avoid dividing their votes between the remaining three right-wing candidates and back Tory in order to block Chow.

“It’s not by accident that we are calling her ‘the NDP candidate,’” said a senior Tory campaign organizer. Several high-profile New Democrats will be endorsing Tory – not Chow – in the days and weeks ahead, the organizer added.

To counter such criticism, Chow has been stressing that she grew up poor and fully appreciates the value of a dollar.

Officials for both Chow and Tory agree that while they aren’t writing off Ford completely, they believe he is a spent political force. If Ford stays on the ballot, he may attract just 15-18 per cent of the votes.

For Chow, Ford dropping out of the race altogether is a worst-case scenario.

That’s because with both Ford and Tory on the ballot, the conservative vote would be divided roughly equally, thus opening the door for victory even if she captured only 40 per cent of the vote.

For Tory, Ford quitting is a best-case scenario. That’s because in a two-person race Tory has lots of potential to pick up conservative and centrist voters who might have voted for Ford, Stintz or Soknacki. Ford supporters overtly despise Chow, almost curling their lips when talking about such issues as her having lived in co-op housing more than 20 years ago with her late husband, Jack Layton.

They would back a candidate from the right, even the mushy right and even a “downtown elitist” like Tory.

For Stintz and Soknacki, it really doesn’t matter because neither of their campaigns appears to be going anywhere.

A Forum Research poll conducted without Ford in the race showed Chow at 34 per cent, Tory at 32 per cent and Stintz and Soknacki at 6 per cent each.

With five months to go before the Oct. 27 election, both Chow and Tory strategists believe they are in a good position to win.

Chow has a massive ground plan, with volunteer organizers in almost every polling district and an extensive social media campaign.

Tory strategists are thrilled their candidate is now second in the polls. They expect the final four weeks to be extremely volatile and have set aside $400,000 for ads during that period. Chow reportedly has budgeted about the same amount.

For Stintz, the news isn’t good. She has made zero headway in the polls, two senior campaign organizers – Don Guy and Dave Gene – are taking a less-active role than they first did and several others have quit to work for candidates in the provincial election.

Worse, money is a problem for Stintz. It takes about $1.4 million to run a serious campaign and her fundraising started to dry up once Tory entered the race. If things don’t improve over the summer, there’s a real possibility she will be forced to abandon her campaign in September. Most of her support would likely go to Tory.

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Meanwhile, Soknacki may stay on the ballot to the bitter end. He’s paying for the campaign mostly out of his own pocket. It can’t be fun, but then he surely knew he didn’t have a real chance of winning. If he did quit, the few voters who might have backed him probably would go to Tory.

Clearly, with Ford gone or badly weakened, Chow must find fresh ways to grow her support. If she fails to do so, the Anybody-But-Chow movement will emerge victorious.

Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca

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