Last updated on .From the section Premier League

The study found Liverpool's 0-0 draw at home to Manchester United in October would have become a 1-0 win had the Reds been awarded a penalty

Liverpool were the 'unluckiest' team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were the 'luckiest', new research claims.

The Reds dropped 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards, says a study conducted by ESPN, Intel and the University of Bath. external-link

It says United gained six points over incidents that went in their favour.

Manchester City remain top in a new simulated table accounting for 'luck'.

However, the study found Huddersfield should have been relegated instead of Stoke when 'incorrect' refereeing decisions were taken into account.

It also found Brighton would have finished six places higher - moving up to ninth and earning an extra £11.5m in prize money on their return to the top flight.

Conversely, Leicester would have finished 14th instead of ninth, ending the season with £9.7m less in prize money.

Fourth-placed Liverpool would have swapped with second-placed United, and champions City fallen three points short of their 100 mark.

How did the 'Luck Index' work?

A research team collaborated with ex-Premier League referee Peter Walton, analysing footage from every game of the 2017-18 Premier League season and watching for:

Goals that should have been disallowed

Incorrectly disallowed goals

Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)

Penalties that were not awarded but should have been

Incorrect red-card decisions

Red-card incidents that were missed

Goals scored after injury time overran

Deflected goals

Once incidents had been indentified, an alternative outcome of the affected matches was predicted, using a model that also considered factors including team strength, form, and home advantage.

For example: in Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Manchester United at Anfield on 14 October, the study concluded Jurgen Klopp's side should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute, and the new simulated scoreline was a 1-0 victory for the home side.

And, while Leicester gained seven points compared to Manchester United's six according to the 'Luck Index', the Red Devils' points came from fewer incidents, giving them a greater points-per-incident ratio.

Once the process was completed, the Premier League table was redrawn to reflect the new simulated results.

Premier League table 17-18 'Luck Index' simulated table 17-18 Manchester City 100 Manchester City 97 Manchester United 81 Liverpool 87 Tottenham 77 Tottenham 77 Liverpool 75 Manchester United 75 Chelsea 70 Arsenal 71 Arsenal 63 Chelsea 70 Burnley 54 Burnley 50 Everton 49 Newcastle 48 Leicester 47 Brighton 46 Newcastle 44 Everton 44 Crystal Palace 44 Crystal Palace 42 Bournemouth 44 West Ham 41 West Ham 42 Watford 41 Watford 41 Leicester 40 Brighton 40 Southampton 40 Huddersfield 37 Bournemouth 38 Southampton 36 Stoke 37 Swansea 33 Huddersfield 37 Stoke 33 Swansea 34 West Brom 31 West Brom 33

The research team analysed over 150 incidents and also found:

Leicester scored three goals after injury time overran - more than any other side.

Huddersfield's John Smith's Stadium saw the most deflected goals - five. Two of those worked in the Terriers' favour.

Matt Ritchie was the 'luckiest player'. The Newcastle winger avoided two red cards, while a handball in the box against Leicester went unnoticed.

Assistant Professor Thomas Curran from the University of Bath said each game was simulated "thousands of times to model how it should have turned out".

He said the project was "one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted".

Former referee Walton added: "The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.

"With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds."