The United States, Colombia, Cuba and other Caribbean countries want to stabilize Venezuela’s oil exports and to prevent an escalation of violence, a breakdown of order and further floods of refugees. China also wants stability to be sure that its extensive loans to Venezuela are repaid. Many in the Americas and elsewhere seek to avoid violence and mass deprivation. Some care deeply about the protection of basic human rights, including those of democratic governance, but they try to avoid forceful interventionism that could lead to deeper problems and lasting resentments.

The indispensable step to secure constructive international involvement is for domestic opposition leaders to strengthen their cause. This requires developing an attractive vision of Venezuela’s future, as was done compellingly by the opposition to Gen. Augusto Pinochet in Chile, and by Nelson Mandela and the African Nation Congress in South Africa. Opposition forces need to do much more than denounce the incumbent government. They must overcome personal rivalries and fashion a unified coalition, not only to gain power but to govern. They also must maintain popular backing and keep a sharp focus on preserving the constitution.

At the same time, they must devise approaches that can help induce elements within the regime to seek ways out of their situation. This may require pledges that wholesale revenge will be avoided even as the victims of human rights violations are recognized and protected. They must prepare plans for restoring public order, while assuring democratic civilian control of the security forces. And they must present credible proposals for restoring economic growth by engaging national and foreign investors while also responding to the needs of the poor.

In all these realms, the international community can be helpful: by opening space for mutual reconnaissance and discussion; facilitating expertise on key issues; applying pressures and offering incentives to participants; providing training and technical assistance to political groups, civil society organizations and security forces; and helping to respond materially to the humanitarian crisis.

An end to Venezuela’s authoritarianism will not occur until at least one important sector within the government perceives that change is required. The attorney general’s rebuke of the Supreme Court’s action, leading to the court’s partial retreat, indicates that there are already divisions within the regime. Those who are open to change need to be reassured that this will not involve grave risks for the nation or for those who have acted within the law.

A transition from Venezuela’s current crisis to a brighter future may be closer now than in recent months, although it may not yet be very near. Meanwhile, greater attention to developing and coordinating strategies for a nonviolent transition could well be helpful.