At 1 p.m. eastern U.S. time on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will offer what he says is a major development related to Iranian noncompliance with the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal.

But what might this news be?

Well, Barak Ravid says:



Senior Israeli official told me: Israeli intelligence uncovered huge amount of new and dramatic information on the Iranian nuclear program. whoever still believes Iran signed the nuclear deal with honest intentions is going to have a very interesting time this evening — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) April 30, 2018



Amit Segal says it is a "huge document cache" of Iranian origin that was seized by Israel and indicates noncompliance.

Based on Israeli intelligence protocol, Netanyahu's specific concerns related to Iran, and prior context, I believe the most likely probability here is that Israel has acquired a mix of intelligence, including seized documents, which indicate Iranian research of nuclear weaponization via warhead research. Iran has long worked hard to advance its ballistic missile capabilities. Matching those efforts to a deliverable warhead capability would give Tehran the foundation for a nuclear weapons program.

But how would Israel have acquired evidence of Iranian noncompliance?

Likely through its military's 8200 signal intelligence unit. That exceptionally talented team has scored major successes both in penetrating and disrupting the activity of terrorist groups like the Lebanese Hezbollah and Islamic State, and in surveilling foreign governments. Unit 8200 could also offer Netanyahu the kind of forensic evidence he seems to be promising to the world.

Of course, context is also king here. Newly appointed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Israel this weekend and President Trump is expected to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement on May 12. It's in Netanyahu's interest to provide Trump with diplomatic consolidation against those who believe he should remain in the nuclear agreement. If he can bring out proof of Iranian material breaches of the JCPOA, Netanyahu will greatly strengthen Trump's hand in persuading France and Britain to withdraw from or alter the deal.

Anyway, we'll just have to wait for a few hours to see what's really going on.