Moneycontrol News

Exit polls suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with allies is likely to form the next government in India’s north-eastern states of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura.

Two exit polls last Tuesday predicted that the BJP would dethrone the Left from power in Tripura and consolidate its position in north-eastern states of Meghalaya and Nagaland.

What Exit Polls Suggest

JanKiBaat-NewsX has predicted that the BJP-IPFT alliance in Tripura will win 35-45 seats with a vote share of 51 percent. While another exit poll by AxisMyIndia predicts 44-50 seats for the BJP-IPFT with a vote share of 49 percent and others may get 0-3 seats with a vote share of 11 percent.

In Meghalaya where the Congress is in power, the JanKiBaat-NewsX exit poll shows that the National People's Party (NPP) is set to gain with 23-27 seats while the BJP will get 8-12 seats, with vote shares of 39 and 12 percent respectively.

The NPP, which is member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), has not entered into a formal pre-poll alliance with the BJP.

Also read: North East Elections 2018: Exit polls give BJP a clear lead.

In Nagaland, the BJP-NDPP alliance is likely to storm the ruling NPF bastion as it is predicted to win 27-32 seats with a vote share of 48 percent, against NPF's 20-25 seats and a vote share of 42 percent, according to the JanKiBaat-NewsX exit poll.

A potential victory for the BJP in these states would be significant as they have traditionally lacked support there. Forming a government in all three states, with allies, would extend the saffron spread to 22 states.

The 'Modi Tsunami'

The saffron party and its allies have been on a roll since the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came to power in May 2014. As a result, the political map of India is now splashed with saffron.

Prior to the win in the General Election, the BJP was already in power in five states – Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Nagaland.

However, 2014 was the year that changed it all for the BJP. The BJP came to power in the Centre with its largest mandate, in what many described as a "Modi Tsunami". The saffron party won 282 seats, while its allies winning 54 seats, taking the NDA's tally to 336.

The effects of the 'Modi Tsunami' continued to be felt as a "Modi Wave" in the state elections that followed.

BJP's ally, the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) also retained the state of Sikkim in the election that was held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls. Another BJP ally, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) also formed bifurcated Andhra Pradesh's first government.

Also read: North East Elections 2018: A big test awaits BJP

The Modi juggernaut

Five months after the General Election, the BJP won 122 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. They formed the government in Maharashtra following a post-poll alliance with NDA ally Shiv Sena. The party also came to power in the northern state of Haryana after winning 47 seats in a 90-member assembly.

BJP along with its allies, secured a majority in the Jharkhand Assembly election, shortly after.

The party was the second-best performer in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, behind Mehbooba Mufti-led People's Democratic Party (PDP). A post-poll alliance with the PDP, helped BJP come to power in the state.

By the end of the year, BJP had extended its reach to 11 states across the country.

In 2015, BJP's growth story witnessed two major hiccups when they faced crushing defeats in Delhi and Bihar, in spite of extensive campaigning by the prime minister.

While BJP ended a 15-year Congress rule in Assam in 2016, the party failed to make a mark in the other three major state elections in West Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. However, BJP supporters were quick to point out that the saffron party did not have adequate reach in those states.

In September 2016, Arunachal Pradesh's 47 Members of Legislative (MLAs) from the ruling Congress, defected to BJP. The lawmakers were able to prove majority on the floor of the house, helping BJP form a government in the hill state.

In 2017, BJP bagged Uttarakhand and won a large mandate in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The party lost in Punjab after two terms of rule along with ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

It was in Goa and Manipur that the BJP won lesser seats that main rival Congress. But, the party was quick to stitch together an alliance with regional parties and independents, to form a government in both states.

The Coup in Bihar

In July 2017, Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, resigned from his post and broke his party's 'Grand Alliance' with Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress.

Nitish was sworn in as the new Chief Minister less than 24 hours after he resigned, but this time with the support of the BJP. The following day, Nitish and his new government, formed with the BJP, won the crucial trust vote in the Bihar State Assembly, with 131 legislators voting in favour and 108 voting against.

In December 2017, the BJP sprang to power in Himachal Pradesh riding on a wave of anti-incumbency. Jai Ram Thakur was sworn in as the state’s chief minister days after the election as their CM candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal suffered a shock defeat.

After months of bitter campaigning, the saffron party managed to retain PM Modi and party president Amit Shah’s home state of Gujarat with a close margin. Congress made serious gains in a state, especially in the rural areas, in what was interpreted by many as sounding of the bugle for states elections to be held in 2018.

Wins in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat extended BJP’s winning run to 19 states in the country.

Challenges on the horizon

While BJP unlatched itself across the country, the biggest loser was the Congress party, which kept losing state after state. Karnataka is currently the only large state that is being governed by the Congress.

Karnataka is expected to head to polls in April-May this year. The BJP would also be fighting anti-incumbency in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh later in the year along with another north-eastern state of Mizoram, where it will be hoping to make a mark.

POPULAR CATEGORIES