Pick the Probabilities ProbabilityFootball ® is a unique, skillful football contest where you don't simply try to guess the winners in football games. Instead you estimate, for each game, the probability that each team will win based on how strong you believe each team to be. (Another way to look at it is that you make a pick based on how confident you are that your favored team will win.) For example, say that Atlanta is playing at Dallas this week. If you feel that Dallas has a 60% chance of winning the game, you would pick Dallas 60%, Atlanta 40%. (You feel that Dallas will win, but you're only 60% sure.) If a friend of yours, Susan, feels more confident about Dallas (perhaps she knows of a key Atlanta injury), she might pick Dallas 70%, Atlanta 30%. Perhaps another friend, Dave, feels that Atlanta should be slightly favored and picks Atlanta 55%, Dallas 45%. Game Result You Susan Dave Atlanta 17 40% +36.00 30% +64.00 55% -21.00 Dallas 21 60% 70% 45% Game Result You Susan Dave Atlanta 21 40% -44.00 30% -96.00 55% +19.00 Dallas 17 60% 70% 45% Unique Scoring Function If Dallas wins the game, both you and Susan gain points, and Dave loses points. However, if Atlanta wins, Dave gains points, while both you and Susan lose points. In each case, Susan gains or loses more points than you because her pick was more bold than yours. The unique scoring function ensures that the players most accurately estimating the probabilities (strengths of the teams) in each game will score the most points on average. Ignore the Spread In ProbabilityFootball ® , you never pick against "the spread". The spread is an artificial number of points added to the underdog's score in a football game in order to make the game an even match between the two teams. But the teams on the field don't care about the spread. Obviously, a losing team will not be happy just because they beat the spread. Similarly, whether you gain or lose points in the contest is dependent only upon whether the team you've picked as favorite wins or loses, not the margin of victory. Accumulate Your Score and Win Prizes Throughout the season, each player gains or loses points for each game. Prizes are awarded for players having the highest cumulative scores for each week, each month, and for the entire season. Prizes are also awarded during the preseason and postseason.