Everyone agrees Toronto’s sputtering transit system needs a massive overhaul — it’s a key issue in the mayoral election. And all four major candidates have now presented their plan for fixing this inadequate and badly overcrowded service. These ideas range from the ridiculous to, if not the sublime, at least the workable.

Given that what’s at stake here will touch the lives of hundreds of thousands of daily commuters and affect transportation across Canada’s largest city, it’s vital that voters choose wisely. And that means rejecting the “subways, subways, subways” political snake oil being peddled by incumbent Rob Ford.

His $9-billion plan, released this week, purports to build 32 kilometres of new subway lines without a municipal tax increase. It’s nothing short of absurd. No reliable mechanism is put forward to pay for it all. Ford’s cost estimates are lowballed. Building his proposed subways would require far more money. And he suggests new underground lines, including along Finch Ave. W., where there isn’t nearly the population density to justify a big dig.

Never one to let facts interfere with his policies, Ford blusters forward, just as he did in the last election when he promised expansive subway construction for free, with the private sector picking up the bill.

That didn’t happen. Instead Ford found support only for a three-stop Scarborough subway extension which required killing a seven-stop, ultra-modern light-rail line that would have better served the same area. And it came at a cost. Every ratepayer in the city has been saddled with a 30-year Scarborough subway property tax hike that will ultimately cost the average Toronto household at least $1,200. Free subways indeed.

That’s what comes of believing in Ford. Yet he’s out on the campaign trail asking for the electorate’s trust again, offering another bogus subway vision. Voters shouldn’t fall for this a second time.

Olivia Chow presents a more practical way forward. She would reverse city council’s ill-advised approval of Ford’s Scarborough subway expansion and return to the original light-rail plan. That would spare municipal taxpayers from having to cover about $100 million in sunk costs already invested in light rail. And — if the original plan were restored — the province would pay the full cost of a Scarborough LRT.

Chow would use wiggle-room in the budget, provided by the already-approved Scarborough subway tax, to help fund a much more important downtown subway relief line. Development of this route would ease pressure on Toronto’s Yonge subway line, where congestion is approaching crisis levels.

Unfortunately, a nagging uncertainty clouds Chow’s agenda. Queen’s Park agreed last year to back Ford’s Scarborough subway expansion, largely to win a local byelection, and the province may not be willing to return to its original light-rail plan.

That would pose a major blow to Chow’s transit hopes. But she could still move forward with other initiatives, such as enhancing commuter service by spending $15 million a year to bolster the city’s bus fleet — the workhorse of Toronto transit. A relatively small investment here can produce large and immediate results, no digging required.

Front-runner John Tory also offers some well-grounded proposals, including speeding up service by installing more express bus lanes across Toronto.

The backbone of Tory’s transit agenda, however, is his $8-billion SmartTrack strategy promising fast, easy “citywide transit relief” at no cost to property tax payers. It sounds too good to be true and, on close examination, that’s precisely what it is.

According to Tory, 53 kilometres of SmartTrack line and 22 stations could be opened in just seven years. This would be easy to do because about 90 per cent of the system’s trains would run on existing track, providing what Tory calls “surface subway service.” And the system would pay for itself through tax increment financing — essentially counting on future increases in property values, as a result of better transit, to pay for SmartTrack now.

There are problems with all this. The city doesn’t own the rails required by Tory’s plan. Action depends not on the Toronto Transit Commission but on GO Transit and Metrolinx, Ontario’s agency in charge of co-ordinating transportation through the Greater Toronto Area. As such, it’s outside the mayor’s control. A seven-year delivery date seems hopelessly optimistic. And tax increment financing remains a little-used, high-risk strategy that could leave local taxpayers stuck with massive costs.

On the plus side, Tory is at least open to exploring novel solutions. He deserves credit for that. But his plan needs a lot more work and practical development before it can be considered Toronto’s best transit option. Added to this uncertainty is Tory’s unfortunate support of the Scarborough subway expansion — spending more ratepayers’ money for worse transit.

David Soknacki, although trailing in the polls, doesn’t make that mistake. He was the first major candidate to urge restoration of Scarborough’s light-rail line. And he has been refreshingly blunt in considering increased taxes to fund transit expansion. He well recognizes that public transit, in fact, doesn’t come free. Unfortunately, with just seven weeks before election day, Soknacki doesn’t have much hope of overtaking the front-runners and enacting this commendable vision.

There are other imperatives in the election besides transit. First and foremost is replacing Ford with a responsible mayor who will serve this city proud. But transportation matters. And of the three leading candidates, Chow has the best plan — channelling investment where it’s most needed to reliably move the largest number of people as quickly as possible. Tory has some good ideas and has brought imaginative concepts to the debate. That’s a welcome development. But it’s not yet clear if his vision actually adds up to effective public policy.

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There’s no such question-mark hanging over Ford’s plan. It’s designed to mislead the gullible into voting for four more years of transit backtracking and hypocrisy. And Toronto can’t afford that.

This is one of a series of editorials examining issues in Toronto’s mayoral election.

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