Tim Southee captained New Zealand in the five-match Twenty20 series against England and may sit out the first test.

Senior New Zealand swing bowler Tim Southee looks increasingly likely to miss the cut for Thursday's first cricket test against England as the horses for courses approach gets its first airing.

Former Black Caps batting coach Craig McMillan raised the prospect on Tuesday of Southee carrying the drinks at Mount Maunganui to fit in speedster Lockie Ferguson for a long-awaited test debut.

Ferguson's rapid rise presents a selection conundrum for captain Kane Williamson and coach Gary Stead: how to split up the successful pace trio of Southee, Trent Boult and Neil Wagner who've combined for the Black Caps' last seven home tests (five wins, two draws).

PHOTOSPORT Speedster Lockie Ferguson is a must-select for bouncy Bay Oval, it's just a matter of who misses out.

In those seven tests - which included the 1-0 series win over England 19 months ago - the trio's figures were impressive: Southee 36 wickets at 23.38, Boult 45 at 20.6 and Wagner 32 at 24.03.

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With Boult the undisputed leader of the attack, it is understood three options for the pace trio are on the selection table this week: the status quo; Ferguson in for Wagner at first change; or throw Ferguson the new ball and keep Southee on ice for the second test at more swing-friendly Hamilton.

GETTY IMAGES Neil Wagner took 17 wickets in three Plunket Shield matches in recent weeks, including eight in a match at Mount Maunganui.

On what's expected to be a good Bay Oval pitch with pace and bounce for the quicks, at a ground where swing can be rare if the sea breeze gets up, option three - Boult, Ferguson and Wagner - looks the most likely.

It also gives New Zealand the opportunity to fight fire with fire as England's 150kmh man Jofra Archer takes aim at the home top order. Ferguson with the new ball and Wagner at first change gives the Black Caps attack more of a fear factor and potential for a short-pitched barrage at England's batsmen if it's flat.

Stead, who also has Matt Henry in the 15-man squad, previously hinted at a pace bowler rotation policy as New Zealand eye a punishing five tests in just under seven weeks against England and Australia.

Speaking on Radio Sport, McMillan said Ferguson's pace and x-factor made him a must-select.

"It's a real tough one. There's a lot of talk about Wagner [missing out], because they're like for like, the sort of bowlers who will bully batsmen and make life tough with the short ball so they have a similar role in the side," McMillan told Radio Sport.

"There's also the opportunity for [Ferguson] to come in and use the new ball. He does it for Auckland, he swings the new ball. Maybe someone like Tim Southee might need a rest, he played all five of those T20s.

PHOTOSPORT Black Caps skipper Kane Williamson has a tricky selection decision over his pace bowlers ahead of Bay Oval's first test.

"The bowlers will have to be managed through the summer - there are seven test matches and not all of them will play seven test matches. That managed workload will be important so he [Ferguson] might come in for Tim Southee for this first match."

The last time Southee was dropped for a home test was against South Africa at Dunedin in 2017 when New Zealand played two spinners Jeetan Patel and Mitchell Santner, and Boult and Wagner shared the new ball.

Wagner wasn't required for either of New Zealand's two tests in Sri Lanka in August, a 1-1 draw as Boult and Southee helped bowl them to a series-levelling victory in Colombo.

GETTY IMAGES Trent Boult will lead the Black Caps test attack after two first-class matches for Northern Districts.

But the left-armer who lives down the road from Bay Oval is the form red ball bowler of the season to date, having snared 17 Plunket Shield wickets at 24 for Northern Districts.

Included in that was a match haul of 7-166 off 49.4 overs in their 74-run loss to Central Stags at Bay Oval. Sent in to bat on October 30, the Stags scored 371 as an ND attack including Boult and Wagner took 117.5 overs to bowl them out, in a sign of how tough it can be for the bowlers at the Mount.

Said Wagner of the test venue: "It's been a pretty good wicket and it tends to be a bit on the flatter side but there's always a bit of pace and bounce to work with. It does have its own unique challenges with wind that swirls around."

AT A GLANCE

Possible Black Caps XI for first test against England: Tom Latham, Jeet Raval, Kane Williamson (captain), Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, BJ Watling, Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner, Neil Wagner, Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson.