Flood risk in the region likely to increase by 130% by end of century, modelling shows

Houses in flood-hit Townsville and other parts of north Queensland are “on track to become uninsurable”, according to analysis that shows the risk to homes from flooding will more than double under climate change.

The modelling, based on current global emissions trajectories, says flooding in Townsville is already about 20% more to likely to occur than previously thought. The total flood risk in the region is likely to increase by 130% by the end of the century.

Climate Valuation, which advises the property and finance industry, said the result would be that more homes would find flood cover difficult to obtain and too expensive.

Home and business owners have reported being caught out by the scale of this month’s flooding in Townsville. Many say they did not have specific flood cover, and that the city planning codes rated properties outside the “one in 100 years” flood zone as effectively flood-free.

Experts have repeatedly said planning controls must be tightened to account for the increased likelihood of extreme natural disasters fuelled by climate change.

'We're not insured': Townsville flood leaves policyholders stranded Read more

The director of science and systems at Climate Valuation, Karl Mallon, said the risk of increased flooding left homeowners and business financially vulnerable.

“Unfortunately, there are a lot of properties out there that planners in years past considered acceptable, but which homeowners may find are not insurable today or won’t be very soon,” he said.

“Generally insurance companies often draw a line in the sand at the frequency of a one-in-100 year flood event. This means that as the risks of flooding increase, many Townsville houses will be uninsurable or the owners will find cover unaffordable.

“We strongly urge people to check with councils and insurers if their homes are in flood zones, and if they can expect long-term affordable cover. If not they should know they will have to plan for the risks on their own and think about adapting their homes for climate change.”

Insurance is already a problematic subject in north Queensland.

According to an Australian Competition and Consumer Commission report last year, insurance in the cyclone-prone north can be three to five times more expensive than elsewhere.

Most policies cover flooding as standard but it is not a requirement. Some exclude it. On others it is an optional extra. Guardian Australia reported last week that people in Townsville had in many cases opted for the cheaper option, in the mistaken belief their properties were not at risk.