Probably like you, I have a high aversion to mortal risk and a low tolerance of anything that could harm my family – but I also believe that travel is almost always a benign and rewarding experience, both for the traveller and for the host community. So last January, the peak sales month for summer holidays, I booked a family holiday on Turkey’s glorious southern coast.

One week earlier, 10 members of a German tour group had died in a suicide bomb attack in Sultanahmet Square in the heart of Istanbul. Each of those lost lives, taken by an amateur fascist intent on spreading hate and division, was a tragedy. But set against the millions who visit Turkey’s largest city each year, and millions more who holiday on the coast, the chances of coming to harm on a package holiday to a resort remained extremely low.

Many British families, however, disagreed. In March, the tour operator wrote to say: “Whilst Turkey remains a popular destination for UK holidaymakers, in common with other travel companies, we are seeing lower demand this year.” Our chosen property was one of several that would remain closed. We ended up in Greece instead, inadvertently contributing to the collapse of around half of the Turkish tourist economy.

2017: Cities around the world ring in the New Year

Since then, mass slaughter has become a regular occurrence. Attacks in Istanbul, the capital Ankara and elsewhere have claimed hundreds of victims.

A massacre at Istanbul’s main airport in June killed more than 40 people. Two months later, even people died in a blast at a wedding in the south-eastern city of Gaziantep. Inevitably, the former caught the world’s attention – and mine. And last night, 39 people were shot dead while celebrating in an Istanbul nightclub. Many prospective visitors to Turkey will be shocked by a New Year massacre on the shores of the Bosphorus.

Risk-assessing Turkey is complicated because there are many enemies of civilisation, tolerance and freedom. Perpetrators of terrorist attacks include Isis, Kurdish separatists and two far-left political factions.

Without wishing to diminish the scale of the atrocities in cities near the Syrian border, I have focused on the chances that places on the tourist trail will be hit. Istanbul is a great global metropolis. Races and religions have converged on the city through the centuries, as a hub along the Silk Road and the Hippie Trail. Increasingly, though, it looks a shaken, vulnerable place. People are staying away. Tonight, you can get a luxury room at a top hotel, the Conrad Istanbul Bosphorus, for £72 – less than the cost of a Premier Inn in London.

In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Show all 17 1 /17 In pictures: Turkey coup attempt In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Turkish President Erdogan attends the funeral service for victims of the thwarted coup in Istanbul at Fatih mosque on July 17, 2016 in Istanbul, Turkey Burak Kara/Getty Images In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Soldiers involved in the coup attempt surrender on Bosphorus bridge with their hands raised in Istanbul on 16 July, 2016 Gokhan Tan/Getty In pictures: Turkey coup attempt A civilian beats a soldier after troops involved in the coup surrendered on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul, Turkey, 16 July, 2016 REUTERS/Murad Sezer In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Surrendered Turkish soldiers who were involved in the coup are beaten by a civilian Reuters In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Soliders involved in the coup attempt surrender on Bosphorus bridge Getty In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wave flags as they capture a Turkish Army vehicle Getty In pictures: Turkey coup attempt People pose near a tank after troops involved in the coup surrendered on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul, Turkey, 16 July, 2016 Reuters In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Turkish soldiers block Istanbul's Bosphorus Brigde Getty In pictures: Turkey coup attempt A Turkish military stands guard near the Taksim Square in Istanbul Reuters In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Pierre Crom/Twitter In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Turkish soldiers secure the area as supporters of Recep Tayyip Erdogan protest in Istanbul's Taksim square AP In pictures: Turkey coup attempt People demonstrate in front of the Republic Monument at the Taksim Square in Istanbul Murad Sezer/Reuters In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Turkish soldiers detain police officers during a security shutdown of the Bosphorus Bridge Reuters In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Turkish Army armoured personnel carriers in the main streets of Istanbul Getty In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Chaos reigned in Istanbul as tanks drove through the streets EPA/TOLGA BOZOGLU In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks to media in the resort town of Marmaris Reuters In pictures: Turkey coup attempt Supporters of President Erdogan celebrate in Ankara following the suppression of the attempted coup Reuters

I look forward to returning to Turkey soon, because the best way to counter random violence is to assert its futility by not changing your behaviour. The risks of a holiday in Turkey remain low, with road accidents presenting more of a danger than deranged gunmen or terror attacks.