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"I don't normally approve of blood sports,” said one Labour grandee to me, “but I just had to go to the meeting of the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) discussing the motion of no confidence.”

Monday’s meeting passed as many of them have since Jeremy Corbyn became leader. He sat impassively listening to speech after speech in which Labour MPs explained why they had no faith in him. His air was similar to the one he displays at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) — the bewildered geography supply teacher look. Corbyn was probably thinking about his next engagement — addressing his thousand or so supporters who were waiting in Westminster Square waving Socialist Workers’ Party (SWP) banners. They gave him a rapturous reception.

That is the state of the modern Labour Party. A leader who has lost the confidence of 80 per cent of MPs, 100 per centof MEPs and of all living former Labour leaders from Neil Kinnock to Ed Miliband — including Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman. A leader who cannot fill a full shadow cabinet — his new shadow education secretary resigned 48 hours after being appointed — let alone a front bench. But one who is intent on staying put in the face of being literally — both operationally and in sheer ability — unable to do his job. As his closest colleague shadow chancellor John McDonnell puts it, apparently unironically, Jeremy is “going nowhere”. This is the one point of agreement across the Labour Party.

It is only six years since Labour was in government after a record three terms in office. No party can win every election — the key, as the saying goes for relegated football teams, is “bouncebackability”. But Labour has fallen so far behind that just yesterday the SNP asked to be recognised as Her Majesty’s Official Opposition. The party’s case is that Angus Robertson, leader of its Westminster group, commands more parliamentary support than Jeremy Corbyn — 54 MPs to the 40 votes Corbyn received in his no confidence vote. How did it come to this?

A bit of history is needed. The Labour Party, like all European parties of the Left, has always been threatened by infiltration by the ultra-Left. The best defence against this has always been vigilance — and rapid suspensions and expulsion. It is necessary to be as ruthless to Trotskyists as they would be to you if they got the whip hand. Labour let its guard down in the Eighties and Militant took over councils and parliamentary seats. The battle in which Neil Kinnock drove them out was a defining moment in Labour modernisation.

Why did Labour let the ultra-Left back again? Partly, the fall of communism discredited the extreme Left ideologically. Partly, the years of Blair’s electoral supremacy led to the old Left retiring from Labour politics. But they didn’t disappear. The global financial crisis energised them — banks were now everyone’s enemy and the emblem of capitalism. Then Ed Miliband made Labour a more congenial home as he shifted it markedly Leftwards away from the centre.

The final stroke was the new membership system introduced for last year’s leadership election. This brought in tens of thousands of new members. Many until then had been opponents of the party — analyses after Corbyn was elected estimated that up to a third had voted against Labour in May 2015.

This was bad enough in itself, but they not only came from different political tradition, they had different expectations from previous Labour members. Political parties are traditionally vehicles for winning power — for Corbynistas electoral victory is the ultimate betrayal. Political purity is the aim, popularity is the proof of compromised principles. This is the pulse that powers Corbyn’s support — his refusal to play by the normal laws of politics angers the PLP, but binds him powerfully to his supporters.

There is a circular logic that insulates Jeremy and his Corbynistas from normal political pressure — the very fact of peer group pressure, whether criticism or resignation, proves that he is a different type of politician. The logic is reminiscent of apocalyptic sects who are never discomfited by the failure of the Messiah to materialise on a specific date — they simply recalculate the prophecy.

This inherently unstable situation has been brought to a head by the Brexit referendum. It does not matter whether Corbyn eventually voted to Remain or to Leave, his history and personal politics are of a Brexiteer, as was his demeanour in the campaign. This caused the final rupture with MPs — the loss of Labour voters led to the loss of the referendum.

Alan Johnson, leader of Labour’s formal Remain campaign was blunt about this calling Corbyn’s campaigning “risible” and blaming his advisers: “The lukewarm approach by Jeremy was bad enough but there is no doubt in my mind that at least three of his closest associates in the leader’s office were actively undermining the party’s efforts.”

This too is a common theme — the role of director of communications Seumas Milne. He is thought to have talked Corbyn out of resigning under pressure from MPs and has certainly stiffened the leader’s resolve, as has McDonnell. He is also, no doubt, behind the strategy of labelling the actions of so many Labour MPs — from Left to Right — as a “coup”. When a leader and his team are barricaded in their office refusing to face reality or accept criticism the truth is that they have taken the Labour Party hostage. The language and the social media tactics of Corbynistas are an attempt to delegitimise any criticism — however legitimate — of the Supreme Leader.

Has, though, Corbyn’s failure in the referendum campaign caused a division among his supporters — many of them are young people who feel the strongest about, and will lose the most from leaving the EU? How are they reacting? The truth is we don’t know. There are enough to rally together to boost Corbyn’s ego, but are there still enough to vote for him if there is a leadership challenge? We know Corbyn sees their support as crucial. The most cringeworthy moments of his leadership — the fur coat and bling of the appearance on The Last Leg or the fly-on-the-wall VICE documentary — are aimed at the youth vote.

Corbyn refuses to discuss the issue of his leadership. When Tom Watson met him last night he refused point blank to discuss it — neither the resignations nor the no confidence vote. When Watson tried to break the deadlock, seeking to make human contact by touching his arm, Corbyn shook him off. All the time not discussing the central issue. On a human level this must be agony, but as a leader it is supremely self-indulgent. The Tory leadership election will undoubtedly result in a snap election — one which Labour is utterly unprepared to fight and the prospect of which has been a catalyst for MPs rebelling too.

Nearer to hand are other important political events. The Chakrabarti Inquiry into anti-Semitism reports today. The proof of its impact will be the Labour Party’s actions, the first of which will be the leader’s response. The second will be the treatment of Ken Livingstone — his readmission into the Labour Party would provoke another firestorm.

And then there is Chilcot. Already Corbyn has floated the idea that Tony Blair should be prosecuted as a war criminal. With his leadership under siege who knows what Corbyn and his followers may be driven to say next week to try to shift attention from him?

Ultimately though, this situation has drifted beyond his control. The resignations have continued, though their very number — 63 at the last count — risks making them seem uninteresting rather than devastating. A challenge from Angela Eagle is expected today.

Faced with criticism Corbyn points to his mandate from the members and they — organised by grassroots group Momentum — echo that, saying he mustn’t go. Quietly but forcefully, Eagle and her supporters will say: “This is not just about you, Jeremy. The Labour Party is bigger than any one of us.”

That will be the crux of the matter. The choice is between Labour having a future as a mainstream political party or becoming a small ultra-Left cult with an uncharismatic leader. The stakes could not be higher.