No less than four of the five ministers Mr Berlusconi withdrew have since questioned the wisdom of the move

INTERVIEWED on television as Italy was plunging into its latest government crisis, the prime minister, Enrico Letta (pictured), brought up the subject of the film "Groundhog Day". He said that when he saw it he was struck by the parallels between the plot and the political situation in Italy. In the 1993 movie the hero, played by Bill Murray, finds himself living through the same 24 hours over and over. For almost 20 years now, Italy has also given an impression of never moving forward. And perhaps the most important reason for this sense of déjà vu is that, whenever you look to the right, you find Silvio Berlusconi.

When Mr Berlusconi launched his party Forza Italia! in 1993, George Bush senior had just left office; John Major was the leader of a Conservative government in Britain, and Helmut Kohl was the Christian Democratic Union’s chancellor of Germany.

Since then, and depending on how one sees at it, nine different leaders have called the shots on the Italian left. But only one has been in charge on the Italian right.

This is the true anomaly of Italian politics: a conservative movement that is not so much led as owned by a single, immensely rich man; a right-wing party with limited internal democracy in which the preferences of its militants, officials and elected representatives can, and often are, overturned or ignored by its leader.

The crisis Mr Berlusconi unleashed on September 28th when he ordered his ministers out of Mr Letta’s left-right coalition is cause for concern. It is by no means certain the prime minister can secure a majority when he seeks the backing of parliament on October 2nd. And the result could be either a snap election that could endanger the passage of the 2014 budget or a protracted round of negotiations as Giorgio Napolitano, the president, struggles to patch together a new coalition.

Political instability is the last thing Italy needs as it struggles to emerge from its longest recession since World War II. Because of Mr Berlusconi’s insistence on the abolition of a tax on first homes, and his refusal to accept a compensatory increase in VAT (the ostensible reason for withdrawing his ministers), there is a growing chance the budget deficit will go back above 3% of GDP. That would have several serious consequences.

Italy has by far the euro zone’s largest public debt in absolute terms. Another breach of the ceiling would rattle the markets and push up its borrowing costs. It would discredit Mr Letta, who has vowed to keep within the limit. And it would send Italy back into the euro zone ‘sin bin’, with a resulting loss of access to much-needed joint EU funding.

Still, there is reason for some guarded optimism about the latest developments. No less than four of the five ministers Mr Berlusconi withdrew have since questioned the wisdom of the move and/or the overall radicalisation of his party (which he has decided to rename Forza Italia! after several years as the People of Freedom). Their revolt comes after months in which there has been growing evidence of a split between moderates and radicals. And, most importantly, one of those who has murmured dissent is his once-super-loyal lieutenant, the deputy prime minister, Angelino Alfano.

In Italian politics though it is always as well to be wary of ruses and ploys, it may be that the Italian right is finally outgrowing Mr Berlusconi. Faced with last weekend’s unprecedented challenge to his authority, the media magnate has wavered. On September 29th, he put out a statement in which he pledged external support for the Letta government if it did the things he wanted it to do.

It is worth bearing in mind that, like the central character in Groundhog Day, Italy has been here before. Three years ago, an earlier lieutenant, Gianfranco Fini, broke with Mr Berlusconi and founded a party of his own: a moderate, ‘European’ centre-right grouping. It is now virtually irrelevant.