Advertisement How much does the media affect presidential campaigns? Share Shares Copy Link Copy

It’s a common chicken-and-egg question: Does media attention drive poll results? Or do poll results drive media attention? The answer to both is yes.Numerous pundits, political analysts and commentators have attributed candidates’ popularity, namely Donald Trump, to the media’s incessant coverage of the Republican front-runner.Research from the Washington Post suggests Trump’s rise among likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers can only be blamed on the media to a certain extent.According to data from the Internet Archive’s Closed Caption Database, Trump was the most-searched candidate of all Republican candidates on Google, taking up between 40 percent and 50 percent of media coverage.There is some evidence showing a correlational relationship between surge in both poll numbers and Google searches, shortly after Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015.The trend, however, fell flat throughout the rest of the summer and fall. The analysis shows in recent months, media does, in fact, drive Google searches up, but not his poll numbers.Moreover, his poll numbers did not appear to drive media coverage.There could be a third factor that influences the media and the polls: everything else.While journalists are inclined to follow their audience’s interests and attention, the media alone does not solely influence voter preference.Experts note a social media post can go viral and reach millions without involving a professional journalist.Endorsements from prominent figures and organizations also have shown to be influential.And then there are the candidates themselves, who generate publicity that results in favorability with both the media and the public.Hillary Clinton seems to be the outlier; media coverage has less to do with her popularity in the polls than any other candidate.One political analyst said that could be due to Americans’ familiarity with the former first lady throughout the years.The Federal Communications Commission enforces the equal time rule, stating if a radio or TV network gives airtime to one candidate, they must give the same amount to other candidates.But the rule doesn’t apply to news programs.While media saturation undeniably affects a campaign, it appears to be a mere correlation and can go both ways.