EDITORS NOTE: This FanPost by Mr. Overmars does a great job of testing many assumptions people have about what affects the Thrashers attendance with a look at the actual data. So I moved this to the main page so that more people would have a chance to read it.

Much has been made about Thrashers attendance from both in and outside of the fan base. I’ve long thought of Atlanta as an event town. Meaning that you have to make something special in order for the town folk to give you any attention. For the Thrashers I believe consistent winning constitutes an event. The one thing that makes the Thrashers appointment viewing. Since we've yet to become must-see in our own town I’ve decided to take a deeper dive in to the numbers focusing on the seasons following the lock out of 2004-05 and give some special consideration to some popular myths.

Since said lockout there have been 182 games played in Philips Arena including the 18 matches contested this season to date.

Looking at the big picture.

The Thrashers have averaged 15,373 attendees over these 182 games which comes to 83% of capacity (18,545). Over this same span the other 29 teams have combined to average 17,230 (94%). The Thrashers rank 29th, in average capacity (13,745; 74.1%) this season after averaging 23rd in the league the previous 4 seasons. Thanks Coyotes.

The trend?

2009-10: 13,745 (74.1%)

2008-09: 14.626 (78.9%) 76 points

2007-08: 15,831 (85.4%) 76 points

2006-07: 16,240 (87.6%) 97 points * Made Post Season

2005:06: 15,550 (83.8%) 90 points

The bloom is most certainly off the rose as we’ve seen Thrashers attendance settle to near worst in the league despite a team that had been successful on the ice through the first third of the 2009-10 season. In fairness, it appears as if the city has responded when the club has won. In 2006-07 the club played to 93% capacity over the last quarter of the season averaging 17,328 fans per game (5 reported sell outs in 11 games). Unfortunately this is really not a significant sample size to know if the fans will be there consistently if the team ices a winning product.

Myth: Atlanta fans wait for football season to end before focusing on the hockey season. Because of travel in the southeast for football there is less time/disposable income for hockey games. What does the data say?

Average Attendance by month

2005-09 09-10 to date

October: 14,932 14,894

November: 14,931 13,098

December: 15,970 13,994

January: 14,958 tbd

February: 16,361 tbd

March: 15,563 tbd

April: 17,287 tbd

While the numbers seem to support this theory with the average attendance spiking nicely in February and April I remain skeptical. Since February (circus) and April (season end) are typically thin for home games and my skew the data I thought it would be interesting to take a deeper dive to see if there is a correlation on days of the week during the football season.

Myth: Fridays in the south is for high school football. Families will not be available to attend games as they’ll be at school functions.

The data:

Friday night average attendance from 2005-2010: 16,667 (90%).

October: 16,339 November: 16,634 December: 16,273 January: 16,355 February: 17,067 March: 17,602 April: n/a

Average attendance on Fridays

With high school football in season: 16,511

While high school football is out: 16,755

Myth: Busted. The numbers in December and January, when high schools are typically finished with their regular seasons, remain consistent with the in season numbers. There is no direct data to show that Friday Night football is the reason for keeping the people out of the seats We clearly show an uptick on Fridays later in the season but it cannot be attributed to the end of the high school football slate.

Myth: The south is college football crazy. Scheduling games on Saturdays is murder as the locals are focused on the Bulldogs and Jackets.

Lets move over to Saturdays shall we?

Average Saturday night attendance 2005-10: 17,178 (93% capacity)

October: 16,190 November: 16,466 December: 16,456 January: 18,625 February: 18,545 March: 18,070 April: 18,103

Myth: Confirmed. The numbers during the football season on Saturday are drastically lower than post bowl season. Interesting to note that Saturdays in January and February have averaged a sell out over the past 5 years. Going next level I was actually surprised to learn that the biggest inhibitor to Thrashers attendance was not the UGA Bulldogs but rather the Jackets of Tech. The numbers:

Thrasher attendance when UGA plays that same day: 16,484

Thrasher attendance when GT plays the same day: 15,990

Since there is some cross over on the weekend they play each other I thought I’d look at those weekends when ONLY Tech or UGA plays:

UGA only: 17,619 average attendance

GT only: 14,945 average attendance

As a control figure I also took a look at those Saturdays where neither Tech nor UGA played during the football season: 16,356.

In the interest of full disclosure Georgia has played on opening night twice and Tech only once. Opening nights are typically sell outs so that inflated the Bulldog numbers quite a bit. Regardless, it’s clear that even if the local elevens are off the region is focused on the gridiron rather than the ice.

What about Sundays? Do the Falcons have any impact on the Thrashers attendance?

All time Sunday: 14,497 (78%)

November: 12,000 December: 16,088 January: 15,311 February: 14,175 March: 16,618

Average when Falcons play: 12,806 ; Average when Falcons don't play: 15,624

That would be yes. In a big way. The largest swing of the football competition. Don’t let anyone fool you. This is a pro football town.

Does the opponent matter? We’ve long heard that Atlanta is a city of transplants from the north. The Thrashers are struggling to achieve a solid fan base because the out of towners have not abandoned their affiliations with the previous teams. Below are the averages for each team. Phoenix, I believe, can be taken with a grain of salt as they’ve only appeared in Atlanta once and that was on a non football season Friday night. I guess everyone wanted to get a glimpse at Gretzky.

Poor St Louis has come to town on Falcon Sundays twice in their 3 visits. They were doomed from the start. Also of note is the poor draw that is Nashville.

Many Thrashers fans have desired a regular meeting with the Preds due to their geographic proximity. I think we may want to temper this movement as there appears to be little interest for the Predators outside of the resident topographers

Team Avg att % cap Phoenix 18545 100.00% Detroit 18052 97.34% Pittsburgh 16221 87.47% Washington 16218 87.45% Philadelphia 16212 87.42% NY Rangers 16177 87.23% Anaheim 16028 86.43% Vancouver 15858 85.51% Tampa Bay 15788 85.13% Carolina 15758 84.97% Buffalo 15755 84.96% San Jose 15656 84.42% Toronto 15606 84.15% New Jersey 15494 83.55% Montreal 15459 83.36% AVG 15373 82.90% Minnesota 15276 82.37% Dallas 15251 82.24% Boston 15105 81.45% Calgary 14857 80.11% Ottawa 14761 79.60% Chicago 14685 79.19% Los Angeles 14422 77.77% NY Islanders 14366 77.47% Florida 14088 75.97% Nashville 13916 75.04% Edmonton 13887 74.88% Columbus 13566 73.15% Colorado 13095 70.61z St Louis 13001 70.11%

Ultimately without regard to opponent or other goings on the true trump card for Thrashers attendance is simply the day of the week. Over the past 5 seasons the average by day of the week breaks down as:

Sunday: 14,997

Monday: 13,795

Tuesday: 13,929

Wednesday: 14,702

Thursday: 14,581

Friday: 16,667

Saturday: 17,178

A bit tough for the Thrashers this season as their remaining home schedule loads them up on tough draw nights:

Sun: 2

Mon: 1

Tue: 9

Wed: 0

Thu: 6

Fri: 1

Sat: 4

Thus I think its safe to surmise that Atlanta is NOT a hockey town. The people will allegedly show up to the arena if they are playing well but we have not seen enough winning in Atlanta to generate a passion. As it stands the Thrashers remain one of many entertainment options in the city. We see larger crowds on the “date nights” and continue to struggle on work/school nights. Until the team starts winning with regularity this team is not a must attend event.

Sources:

Thrasher attendance figures courtesy of www.atlantathrashers.com

MLB, NFL, NBA attendance figures courtesy of espn.com except 2005 Atlanta Falcons which was pulled from atlantafalcons.com

Atlanta stadia capacity figures courtesy of espn.com except Atlanta Hawks which was pulled from the Philips Arena Wikipedia site, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philips_Arena.

NHL Capacities courtesy of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ice_hockey_arenas_by_capacity