Federal election 2019 arrives with Labor cautiously confident of narrow path to victory

Updated

Australians will head to the polls today as the nation decides whether Scott Morrison or Bill Shorten will lead the country.

Key points: Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten head to the polls in a battle for the prime ministership

Both sides expect a tight finish, with Labor "cautiously confident" of victory

Go to the ABC's live results page

Labor arrives on polling day feeling cautiously confident of a narrow path it expects will bring it to power.

Coalition sources concede they face a tougher journey to retain government, but hope a late surge in support will boost their chances.

"This will be the closest election we've seen in many, many years," Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.

Labor came into the election the favourite to win, thanks largely to the Liberal Party's decision to dump former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull as its leader last year.

But the Opposition's path to power has narrowed.

"I'm confident Labor will win [today] because we've got a positive plan for real change to stop the chaos," Mr Shorten said.

Labor has mapped a path it argues would get it to majority government. A Coalition path to majority government is less clear.

Adding to Labor's optimism is an expectation the House of Representatives crossbench will grow to about eight.

Under that scenario, independent Rob Oakeshott would win the Nationals-held seat of Cowper.

Both sides are closely watching the NSW seat of Warringah, where former prime minister Tony Abbott is in a battle to save his political life.

The seats that shaped the election

Another seat to watch is the Queensland electorate of Herbert, which Labor currently holds with a wafer-thin margin of 0.02 per cent.

Preferences from Clive Palmer's United Australia Party are likely to play a crucial role in this seat, along with National Party seats in Queensland.

At the opposite end of the mainland, the fate of the Liberal-held Corangamite also remains unclear.

A redistribution turned it into a notional Labor seat, with a 0.03 per cent margin, but Labor expects the Liberal Party will retain the seat.

This, according to Liberals, would be an "amazing" retain, having earlier expected to lose the Victorian coastal electorate.

The Coalition and Labor agree there will not be a national swing, or a single issue, that will decide the outcome.

Labor is confident of gains in Victoria, a state where the Liberal Party copped a drubbing in last year's state election.

The Coalition hopes Queensland will be a better hunting ground, as it searches to find seats to govern in majority.

The House of Representatives will gain an extra seat, taking the Lower House to 151 MPs.

The Coalition heads into the election, notionally, with 73 seats compared to Labor's 72.

If neither party can reach 76 seats, they will need to find crossbench support to form a minority government, setting up a likely tumultuous term of government.

Though the power of the Lower House forms a government, getting legislation through the Senate will determine the impact Labor or the Coalition can have.

Half the Senate is up for election today.

Coming into the poll, the Coalition holds 16 seats in the 76-seat chamber. Labor has 13, Greens 3, Centre Alliance 2 and one each for Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Australian Conservatives.

Scandal-engulfed campaigns for the parties

The 2019 election campaign will be remembered not for the policies the parties offered, but for the scandals that engulfed both sides.

Social media histories haunted candidates across the political spectrum and led to candidates quitting, or in some cases being dumped, by their parties after the ballots had been printed.

But the death of former prime minister Bob Hawke, a Labor icon, just days out from the election, will undoubtedly be remembered as one of the biggest moments.

Mr Morrison's pitch to voters is that a re-elected Coalition government would deliver a stable economy and create more jobs.

Mr Shorten, meanwhile, has promised a significant spend in health and education, funded through planned tax concession cuts.

More than 4 million Australians cast early votes ahead of today, smashing previous records.

The Australian Electoral Commission has warned that could delay the calling of results after the polls close at 6:00pm.

Topics: government-and-politics, federal-elections, australia

First posted