With a multitude of traditional big hitters (Sergio Aguero, Eden Hazard, Alexis Sanchez, Romelu Lukaku) scoring significant points in Gameweek 10, our squad once again produced a sub-par performance, putting 50 points on the board versus the gameweek average of 58. With only the aforementioned Romelu Lukaku scoring double digits for our side, and with captain Zlatan Ibrahimovic failing miserably, we analyse the bookies’ odds once again in hope of an upturn in fortunes prior to the November international break…

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Chance of a clean sheet Man City 1.8 56% Liverpool 2.03 49% Southampton 2.14 47% Leicester 2.3 43% Bournemouth 2.38 42% Man Utd 2.4 42% Chelsea 2.45 41% Crystal Palace 2.8 36% Arsenal 3.1 32% West Ham 3.1 32% Burnley 3.5 29% West Brom 4.5 22% Stoke 4.8 21% Tottenham 5.4 19% Hull 5.5 18% Sunderland 6 17% Swansea 6.5 15% Everton 7 14% Watford 11 9% Middlesbrough 12 8%

A home fixture against Middlesbrough sees Manchester City top the bookies’ defensive rankings with a 56% chance of keeping a clean sheet this Saturday. The Citizens have only conceded 4 goals in 5 home league games this season, whilst their opponents have only scored 4 times in 5 road games, blanking in 2 of their last 4. John Stones continues to offer the best value route into Pep Guardiola’s defence for £5.0m and starts for us at the back.

Liverpool harbour the second best defensive prospects this weekend, with a 49% chance of shutting out Watford when the Hornets visit Anfield on Sunday. Despite only keeping one clean sheet this season, the Reds have only conceded 3 goals at home, whilst Walter Mazzarri’s troops have struggled in front of goal on the road of late, finding the net once in their last 3 away games. Dejan Lovren scored last time out against Crystal Palace, with his threat from set pieces and £5.0m price tag seeing him earn a place in our side.

Courtesy of a pair of favourable fixtures, Southampton (47%) and Leicester (43%) rank third and fourth respectively. The Saints travel to The KC to tackle a Hull City side in freefall. The Tigers have lost their last 6 games in the league, scoring just 3 goals over that stretch, so Claude Puel’s men should be confident of continuing their recent solid away performances – 2 clean sheets and just 1 goal conceded in their last 3. Fraser Forster is a safe pair of hands between the sticks and starts in goal for us. Leicester, meanwhile, welcome West Brom to The King Power. The Baggies have notched 4 goals in 5 games on their travels, so Christian Fuchs and co stand a good chance of adding to the 3 clean sheets already accrued at home this term. The Austrian left back has a goal and an assist to his name this season, and his attacking threat means he warrants the additional £0.5m expenditure over his teammates for inclusion in our Gameweek 11 team.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we again opt for Stoke’s budget friendly Lee Grant (£4.0m – 21%) as our backup keeper, with Bournemouth’s Adam Smith (£4.5m – 42%) and Swansea’s Jordi Amat (£4.0m – 15%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Everton (14% – away to Chelsea), Watford (9% – away to Liverpool) and Middlesbrough (8% – away to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Anytime goalscorer odds Chance of scoring Sergio Aguero 1.67 60% Diego Costa 1.95 51% Daniel Sturridge 2 50% Kelechi Iheanacho 2 50% Zlatan Ibrahimovic 2.2 45% Roberto Firmino 2.2 45% Sadio Mane 2.3 43% Kevin de Bruyne 2.35 43% Philippe Coutinho 2.38 42% Marcus Rashford 2.4 42% Charlie Austin 2.4 42% Callum Wilson 2.4 42% Eden Hazard 2.5 40% Alexis Sanchez 2.62 38% Islam Slimani 2.7 37% Jamie Vardy 2.75 36% Joshua King 2.8 36% Wayne Rooney 2.88 35% Christian Benteke 2.88 35% Nathan Redmond 2.9 34% Raheem Sterling 3 33% Theo Walcott 3.1 32% Andre Ayew 3.25 31% Dimitri Payet 3.25 31% Riyad Mahrez 3.25 31% Andre Gray 3.25 31% Romelu Lukaku 3.4 29% Michail Antonio 3.4 29% Dusan Tadic 3.5 29% Vincent Janssen 3.6 28% Jermain Defoe 3.6 28% Willian 3.6 28% Wilfried Bony 3.75 27% David Silva 3.75 27% Son Heung-Min 3.8 26% Junior Stanislas 3.8 26% Alex Iwobi 4 25% Salomon Rondon 4 25% Abel Hernandez 4.1 24% Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 4.4 23% Ilkay Gundogan 4.5 22% Borja Baston 4.5 22% Jonathan Walters 4.5 22% Erik Lamela 4.6 22% Mesut Ozil 4.7 21% Nacer Chadli 4.75 21% Troy Deeney 4.8 21% Gylfi Sigurdsson 5 20% James Milner 5 20% Andros Townsend 5.1 20% Wilfried Zaha 5.1 20% Christian Eriksen 5.25 19% Joe Allen 5.25 19% Odion Ighalo 5.4 19% Alvaro Negredo 6 17% Ross Barkley 6.4 16% Kevin Mirallas 6.5 15% Yannick Bolasie 7 14% Gerard Deulofeu 7 14% Cristhian Stuani 7 14% Duncan Watmore 7 14% Ryan Mason 10 10% Adama Traore 10.5 10% Etienne Capoue 11 9% Roberto Pereyra 11 9%

An Etihad meeting with Middlesbrough sees Sergio Aguero top the bookies’ attacking ranks for Gameweek 11. A brace and an assist against West Brom in Gameweek 10 saw the Argentine take his Premier League tally to 7 goals in 7 starts this season, form he will need to bring into Saturday’s clash with Aitor Karanka’s solid unit, who prevented Arsenal from scoring in their last away game and have only conceded 5 goals on the road this term. Nevertheless, Aguero has proven time and again that he can be counted on, and dons the captain’s armband for our squad this weekend.

Joining Aguero up front in our starting XI are Chelsea’s Diego Costa (51%) and Southampton’s Charlie Austin (42%). The league’s top scorer (8 goals) will be in looking to put Everton to the sword in Saturday’s late kick off, with the Toffees having conceded twice at Burnley 2 weeks ago, although they have been resolute on the road in general (5 conceded in 5). Former QPR striker Austin has notched 4 goals in his last 6 Premier League appearances and enjoys an encounter against the leakiest defence in the division on Sunday, with Hull conceding an average of 2 goals per game at home this season.

Some viable options in attack that we have chosen to overlook include Daniel Sturridge and Kelechi Iheanacho (both 50%), due to their lack of starting security, whilst Zlatan Ibrahimovic (45%) is ignored, partly as a result of his poor form of late, but mainly because the £5m saved for a 3% reduction in goalscoring probability (by opting for Charlie Austin) means that we can significantly boost the point scoring potential of our midfield.

These additional riches are instantly visible in the middle of the park, with a Liverpool double up on Roberto Firmino (45%) and Sadio Mane (43%) plumped for ahead of a home tie against Watford. It’s 4 goals and 3 assists in 9 games for the Brazilian after he found the net against Crystal Palace last time out, with his potential boosted further by the fact that he continues to play OOP up front for Jurgen Klopp’s unit. Mane, meanwhile, has hit the ground running at Anfield, with 5 of his 6 goal contributions (4 goals, 2 assists) this term coming at home. Despite keeping clean sheets in their last 3 games, Watford are not expected to keep the Liverpool attacking juggernaut at bay this weekend.

Kevin de Bruyne (43%) joins the Reds’ duo in our midfield this week as we pair the Belgian superstar with City teammate Sergio Aguero ahead of their favourable fixture against Middlesbrough. 9 outings for City in the league have resulted in 9 goal contributions (2 goals, 7 assists) for de Bruyne, who also scored in the midweek victory over Barcelona in the Champions League. Josh King (36%) takes the final starting spot in our squad, with Bournemouth handed a plum home game against rock bottom Sunderland for Gameweek 11. The Norwegian attacker has scored twice this term for the Cherries, but could be set for a profitable weekend with the Black Cats conceding an average of 2 goals per game. Etienne Capoue (9%) is again selected for our bench, with his £4.5m price tag and security of starts important, even though his early season form has significantly diminished.

The bookmakers also fancy the chances of Philippe Coutinho (42%), but we have to forgo his services having already maxed out our squad allocation of 3 Liverpool players, whilst Eden Hazard (40%) and Alexis Sanchez (38%) were unfortunately too heavy on the budget to make our XV.

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