Giles Merritt asks whether the arrival of a former German defence minister at the head of the European Commission might see a redoubling of EU governments’ drive to strengthen their security and defence capabilities.

“Speak softly and carry a big stick” famously summarised the foreign policies of US president Teddy Roosevelt at the dawn of the 20th century. The European Union’s approach to its external relations is exactly the opposite. “Moralise loudly while brandishing a twig,” might be its motto.

There are hopes that the arrival at the head of the European Commission of Ursula von der Leyen, formerly Germany’s defence minister, may yield a significant boost to the EU’s flagging security and defence efforts, thus giving greater weight to Europe’s global role.

Back in Germany, though, observers point to VDL’s somewhat battered reputation when in the defence job, and ascribe that in part to her country’s deep-seated pacifism. Scepticism amounting to outright hostility to the strengthening of armed forces may not be so overt elsewhere in Europe, but few would claim that European public opinion mirrors Americans’ unstinting support for military muscle.

Passivity in the EU on defence issues reflects confusion over the nature and seriousness of possible threats. Some believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policy of irritation and destabilisation may be the precursor to a far more dangerous showdown, such as an attempted ‘recovery’ of the Baltic states that only 30 years ago threw off the Soviet yoke.