Lack of asylum cooperation with Germany could make the Calais border much worse

Jonathan Lindsell, 25 August 2015

The number of asylum seekers attempting to enter Britain from Calais isn’t a problem caused by UK membership of the EU. If all 28 members were unconnected but economically similar, or joined by a looser EFTA arrangement, Europe would still be seen as safe and attractive to those fleeing conflict.

This means that, after Brexit, many migrants would still be trying to enter Europe and many would reach Calais. Even with positive UK-French relations, the Calais authorities are unlikely to be more effective than they are now – but in an acrimonious Brexit, Pavel Swidlicki argues France could be less cooperative.

Chancellor Angela Merkel had been under sustained pressure from Pegida to address the asylum influx in Germany even before it was reported that 800,000 more people were expected this year. Her government increased its calls for EU cooperation, threatening to suspend the Schengen border-free system if other EU member states will not accept an apportioned number of asylum applicants.

If Schengen is suspended, Germany will be replicating the UK approach so reject most asylum seekers at its borders as under the Dublin Regulation newcomers must claim asylum in the first EU country they enter. (Confusingly, Germany has waived its Dublin rights with regard to Syrian refugees, so is processing Syrian claimants it could legally deport.)

British failure to work with Germany and the EU on asylum could mean vastly more non-Syrians at Calais: Germany’s threat would mean proportionally more asylum seekers see the UK as an attractive and accessible safe haven. Having already traversed half of Europe to the Czech-, Austrian- or Polish-German borders, many will continue to Calais rather than wait in those less appealing countries for their asylum applications to be processed. We know of this displacement effect from Spain, which reinforced razorwire fences and watchtowers around its African enclaves, Melilla and Ceuta, in 2005: this diverted attempts to enter Spain and greatly increased sea crossings to Italy and Greece.

The movement of asylum seekers into Europe is unlikely to wane. There is unrest in Turkey after Ahmet Davutoglu failed to form a government, meaning new elections in November set against renewed fighting between the state and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey has just announced greater cooperation with America in driving ISIS out of northern Syria, which will bring Turkish forces nearer the Kurd-controlled Rojava district. There is potential for further violence and displacement (despite the pro-Kurdish advances in the June elections) which would add to the number of regions from which asylum seekers are fleeing. Elsewhere, Macedonian police have abandoned trying to control their border with Greece, allowing those in Greece to make for Western Europe.

It may be politically difficult, but if the government wants to reduced irregular entry attempts at Calais, its best bet is to join Germany in pressing the EU to agree on collective asylum processing. An ordered system evaluating refugee status should quell the current hysteria over Calais and reassure Germany that it isn’t bearing the influx alone.

Jonathan Lindsell is EU research fellow at Civitas. His study on the lessons of Switzerland’s global trading position will be released shortly.