The Global Intelligence Files

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

Re: Fwd: Dispatch: Al Shabaab Claims Somali Explosion

Released on 2013-06-17 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 5181418 Date 2011-10-05 00:18:39 From mark.schroeder@stratfor.com To abdihakim.aynte@gmail.com

Re: Fwd: Dispatch: Al Shabaab Claims Somali Explosion





Thank you, Aynte, for the encouraging words. I'm saddened by the civilian

casualties who had to be the target of this.



I hope you are keeping well.



My best,



--Mark



On 10/4/11 4:57 PM, Abdihakim Aynte wrote:



An excellent yet succinct analysis -- bravo Mark.

What happen today was another epic tragedy.

Best,

Aynte



---------- Forwarded message ----------

From: Stratfor <noreply@stratfor.com>

Date: Tue, Oct 4, 2011 at 10:54 PM

Subject: Dispatch: Al Shabaab Claims Somali Explosion

To: "abdihakim.aynte@gmail.com" <abdihakim.aynte@gmail.com>



Stratfor logo

Dispatch: Al Shabaab Claims Somali Explosion



October 4, 2011 | 2045 GMT

Click on image below to watch video:

[IMG]



Analyst Mark Schroeder examines al Shabaab - the Somali jihadist group

that has claimed the attack in Mogadishu - and its tactics in

furthering its jihadist ideology.



Editor's Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition

technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete

accuracy.



Related Links

* Somali Jihadist Group Still a Threat Despite Withdrawal from

Capital

* [IMG] Dispatch: UAV Strikes Against al Shabaab



In the Somali capital of Mogadishu today a suicide vehicle borne

improvised explosive device, or VBIED, detonated in Mogadishu killing

upwards of 100 bystanders. The Somali jihadist group al Shabaab

claimed responsibility for that VBIED.



The VBIED in Mogadishu detonated inside a government compound and the

bystanders that became casualties of that attack were waiting in line

to apply for university scholarships abroad. Now, that al Shabaab

claimed responsibility for this attack is interesting. In August al

Shabaab had to withdraw its forces from Mogadishu and the loose

alliance that comprised al Shabaab withdrew to their respective home

areas or strongholds.



Now in the case of the transnationalist faction of al Shabaab led by a

couple of individuals - on the one hand there's al-Afghani; on the

other hand there's Godane Abu Zubayr - they pulled their insurgent

forces back to the southern city of Kismayo, but a withdraw of

insurgent forces from Mogadishu does not mean the defeat of al Shabaab

or does not mean that al Shabaab cannot carry out attacks in

Mogadishu.



Mogadishu is a very large and spread out city - its resident

population is estimated at 2 million - and it's a very chaotic city

under little control of the security forces present there. There are

about 9,000 African Union peacekeepers and a few thousand Somali

government soldiers in Mogadishu, but these approximately 12,000

forces cannot effectively patrol, let alone secure, Mogadishu.



Now al Shabaab. Within this loose alliance, there are elements that

are fighting for nationalist agenda aims, fighting for turf in

Somalia, fighting for political recognition or political patronage.

There are other internationalist elements of al Shabaab - the Godane

faction, the al-Afghani faction - that want to create in Somalia an

extension of the broader al Qaeda area of operation. And these

jihadist elements of al Shabaab interact and cooperate with al Qaeda

elements found elsewhere.



The al Shabaab transnationalist faction still has the full capability

of using small unit tactics to carry out terrorist operations in

Mogadishu, and they have stated this full intent to do so, espousing

jihadist rhetoric despite the pullback from Mogadishu, that they will

continue their fight against the Somali government. And so we should

expect full well that this faction of al Shabaab will continue

terrorist tactics in Mogadishu and elsewhere in southern Somalia to

demonstrate their livelihood and their intent to remain a vanguard

Somali jihadist group.



Click for more videos



Give us your thoughts Read comments on

on this report other reports



For Publication Reader Comments



Not For Publication



This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with

attribution to www.stratfor.com

Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us

(c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.









