The winner will be ...

Costa Rica. The Gold Cup trophy shuttles between the US and Mexico. Yet … Los Ticos are in form and bring arguably the Gold Cup’s strongest squad; a talented midfield and one of the tightest defenses even without regular goalkeeper Keylor Navas. Likely to meet the US in the semi-finals, which could go either way; but if Costa Rica prevail an under-strength Mexico probably await. TD

United States. The Americans and Mexico are Gold Cup co-favorites in perpetua, having combined to win 12 of the 13 tournaments held since the format was reorganized in 1991. World Cup quarter-finalists Costa Rica are a trendy choice and should offer the hosts a stiff test in the semi-finals at Arlington’s AT&T Stadium, the 100,000-capacity home of the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, Bruce Arena has not called up a full-strength squad, but a US team including veterans Alejandro Bedoya, Matt Besler, Omar Gonzalez, Brad Guzan and Graham Zusi should be enough to see off a depleted El Tri, whose top players will be given a rest after the Confederations Cup. BAG

United States. Let’s say USA, because in many ways this is the chance for Bruce Arena to assert his claim as the future of the team, and truly transcend the firefighter status he arrived in the job with. And after the succession of tournament failures at Olympic, Gold Cup and playoff levels during this World Cup cycle, the US just seem to need that bounce going into 2018 more than their most credible rivals. Mexico’s the best team right now, but they have other priorities. GP

United States. History suggests that this is a two-team race, with the US and Mexico having split all but one-ever Gold Cup title between them. With the Mexicans focusing their summer efforts on last month’s Confederations Cup, and despite sporting a weakened roster of its own, the USMNT is the team to beat. MP

Bruce Arena’s US reign so far is ...

Sensible and solid, unbeaten in eight games, if a touch over-praised simply by virtue of Arena not being Jürgen Klinsmann. A poor 2015 tournament dented Klinsmann’s reputation, but Arena’s recent appointment and a roster of fringe players largely relieves him of any pressure to win this iteration, though the US will still be expected to reach the final. TD

The US team’s road to Russia is far from complete with return matches against Costa Rica and Honduras looming in September, but Arena has restored the side’s trademark fighting spirit in pulling their qualifying hopes back from the brink. This was evident after the US secured a rare point at Mexico’s Estadio Azteca, when several players hailed the veteran coach’s meticulous preparation and forthright communication with the team – and not without thinly veiled shots at Klinsmann. BAG

Solid. The Honduras win was so emphatic it would have been easy to get carried away, but the first half of the Trinidad and Tobago qualifier and the large sections of time on the backfoot in the Azteca game showed some of the limitations of this group. But Arena puts players in positions they understand, doesn’t tinker unnecessarily, and ensures that the US at least punch at their weight. And he’s been gifted with the emergence of Christian Pulisic. GP



Going about as swimmingly as the federation could have imagined. Under the veteran coach’s tutelage, the Americans are back on track for qualification to Russia 2018 and enter the Gold Cup on a good run of form. The vibe around the team, too, has significantly brightened in 2017. Maybe this will teach US Soccer an overdue lesson about keeping coaches in charge for more than one World Cup cycle. MP

Player to watch

Kellyn Acosta. There’s intrigue as to whether the 21-year-old FC Dallas midfielder can play himself into a sure starting role for September’s World Cup qualifiers ahead of the 35-year-old Jermaine Jones. A starter in June’s 1-1 tie with Mexico, he’s the most likely outfield candidate on the 23-man roster to feature prominently if the US reaches Russia 2018. TD

Juan Agudelo. The 24-year-old striker, once one of the US team’s brightest prospects, has been floated as a potential candidate for the fourth forward spot on the World Cup roster. Arena will lean heavily on him for scoring punch against a gaggle of group-stage opponents the US team is supposed to beat. It’s a golden opportunity for the Colombian-born forward to earn his ticket. BAG



Dom Dwyer will be an interesting case study. His citizenship came at just the right time to give him not just a realistic shot at making the World Cup roster for the US, but perhaps the perfect time for him to time his run into the roster as one of those players who seems to emerge in every cycle from fringe contention to playing a key role, before their novelty wears off. That said, a strong showing in the group stages won’t prove he’s the solution – remember Chris Wondolowski scoring goals for fun at the same stage? GP

Erick ‘Cubo’ Torres. The 24-year-old Mexican forward was a late roster addition, having missed the initial cut and has his chance in place of the injured Alan Pulido. As has been typical in front of his season, expect Torres to make the most of his chance. Torres is currently in second place in MLS with 12 goals, and he’s playing as well as he has since the last time he got a serious look from El Tri in 2015. MP

Surprise team of the tournament

French Guiana. As Gold Cup debutants their presence is inherently unexpected, and with a handful of Ligue 1 players they could cause Canada some stress on Friday in Group A’s opener. TD

Curaçao. Remember: only four of the 12 teams in the field are eliminated after the group stage so the likelihood of an unknown making the last eight is always high. Whether they can go further, like when tiny Guadeloupe surprised Honduras in the quarters a decade ago, is less likely. But don’t sleep on Curaçao, who won 2-1 over Jamaica in the Caribbean Cup final last month on a brace by Elson Hooi, who can prove a handful in the midfield. Cuco Martina (Southampton) and Leandro Bacuna (Aston Villa) lend Premier League experience to the back four. In a top-heavy group in which Mexico appear the only sure thing, the tiny island nation is a live dog. BAG



Is it a cop out to say Costa Rica? The Ticos burst onto the world stage at the last World Cup, and are hardly an unknown quantity, but with Mexico’s main group focusing on the Confederations Cup, the team that saw off Jürgen Klinsmann as US coach may feel this is their best chance of a strong showing at the Gold Cup in a long time. GP

Honduras. Honduras have never reached the final of this version of the continental championship, but blessed with a kind draw and with attacking talent in spades, Los Catrachos could make a deep run. Houston Dynamo team-mates Alberth Elis and Romell Quioto are a nightmare for opposing defenses. MP

The Gold Cup matters because ...

It’s a chance for understudies to make their case for a role on bigger stages, and while always hosting it in the US every two years breeds ennui, there’s novelty value in seeing the likes of Martinique and French Guiana, who aren’t even members of Fifa. And it’s July and there’s not much else going on. TD

Funny event, this. It’s a chance for local heavyweights to fine-tune and give meaningful reps to fringe players (and inch closer to a Confederations Cup berth), while it essentially represents the pinnacle for overseas departments like French Guiana and Martinique, who as non-members of Fifa are ineligible to qualify for other major international tournaments. For everyone in the middle, most notably Costa Rica, Honduras and Panama, it’s a crucial opportunity to tinker ahead of the matches that will determine their World Cup fates. There’s thousands of miles of travel and triple-digit temperatures and it’s mostly a circus playing out on the marginalia of the US sports conversation. But it’s always fun. BAG

As MLS grows in importance and brings in more players from the region, the Gold Cup has had a little more edge in recent years in terms of showcasing players, so there’s a domestic as well as international level to consider. At international level, there’s no doubting the centenary edition of the Copa América showed the limits of the Gold Cup as a marketable and competitive force, so it’s long-term viability as a biennial contest may be in question. But for now it’s still a key part of setting the World Cup cycle development pace for the region’s heavy hitters. GP

The opportunity it grants teams like Martinique and Curaçao. This is as grand a stage as the region’s minnows can reasonably reach, and it is invaluable for the development of the sport in those regions. MP

Semi-finals

United States v Costa Rica, Mexico v Honduras TD

United States v Curaçao, Mexico v Costa Rica BAG

United States v Panama, Costa Rica v Mexico GP



United States v Costa Rica, Mexico v Honduras MP

Final

Costa Rica v Mexico TD

United States v Costa Rica BAG

United States v Costa Rica GP

United States v Mexico MP

This article was updated on 7 July to reflect Concacaf’s decision to rule Flourent Malouda ineligible to appear for French Guiana.



