Low Yield Nuclear Weapons use contemplated by Trump?

Why do I say that?

My evidence is circumstantial, but logical.

The U.S. does not make war — or even conduct battle within a war — without legal boundaries. Many people in America will scoff at that statement, but from the top to the bottom, the military has rules, which carry the weight of law because of the legal structure of the military, and the vast majority of the time, those rules are followed, at least to the satisfaction of the commanders – which is where the law is translated into reality.

Therefore, for most things the United States military does, it first telegraphs into law. This has always been true, and if you follow the law in the U.S., you can follow our thinking, our strategic intent, our capabilities and even our vulnerabilities – at least for a budget and interest category as big as the military.

In the past year, the following physical things have happened.

North Korea detonated a fusion nuclear weapon.

North Korea fired two (2) medium range rockets OVER Japan.

North Korea successfully test fired an ICBM, w/o re-entry.

The US conducted three (3) war games exercises with SK forces.

China moved 15% of their active army (300,000) troops onto the NK border.

Chinese troops on the border with NK are equipped with Radiation detection equipment.

Chinese troops on the border with NK are equipped with SAM ability, 3 sites.

But the US options here conventionally are still very limited and all involve great risk to Seoul.

Only one plan has viability, one with a huge counter strike, reacting to a.) Another NK missile launch, b.) Using low yield nukes on strategic NK front line targets c.) And a massive aerial assault, d.) Combined with some covert operation to reach the NK General Staff with a peace offering, e.) Combined with another simultaneous operation — which attempts to wipe out the North Korea leader. Only such a layered plan — has a good enough chance of statistical success — to pass the computer simulation smell test at the Pentagon. This is a big problem because one of the things the computer doesn’t like is complicated, layered, plans – where one layer’s success is dependent upon another.

Hence the barely acceptable score this plan generates.

But even this just barely good enough plan (statistically speaking), would require some tweaking to US law — which coincidentally — is underway as we speak. The new US NW force authorization plan under consideration on Capitol Hill contains some juicy tidbits, like more low yield nuclear (LYN) weapons, even sub fired LYN warheads – and an important doctrine change, allowing the use of such low yield weapons, NOT SOLELY in response to another country’s first use (the old standard) but also in response to conventional threats against our national security assets from missile launches by nuclear states. In other words, North Korea.

Essentially, the military is asking Congress to extend their war fighting budgeting to include low yield weapons, LYN launchers, LYN platform launching support from existing nuclear assets like submarines, and finally — to legally contemplate a first use policy directly aimed at the country of North Korea.

The president probably does not need this NW authority to act in this manner — if he was reacting to a missile launch at Guam and/or Japan – anyway; but I suspect this is not just about notification, and/or permission from Congress, as much as a final round of intimidation aimed abroad. Trump plays 4D chess and this is the equivalent of moving your castle to the opponents back row.

He wants Kim, Xi and Putin to understand his intentions.

Chinese activity on the NK border indicates Xi believes Trump and is preparing for a war. They have abandoned their loud protestations over THAAD; they know we won’t dismantle that right now, not while NK is non-complaint. They are pushing their hand as hard as they can in the South China Sea – because they know Trump doesn’t want a two front problem, and they can take advantage of this opportunity to cement their presence on the dredged up sand bar atolls that are just big, stationary, militarily outposts.

Russia isn’t screaming about all this – because they are violating the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty (30 years old) and they want to continue doing that. They have developed and/or are developing a land-based cruise missile, which violates this treaty.

The US wants them to stay in the treaty, but that is threatened — frankly — by reality, which is that the US probably (almost certainly) also has a land based cruise missile with “special” (nuclear) capability, just not — in production, we want to develop low-yield weapons, the Russians want to do all this and more, how does this treaty stand up? If the US and Russia and China were smart, they would all agree, that nuclear proliferation was NOT in their long term national interests – and stop proliferating and strongly prohibit the promotion of proliferation in allies.

This isn’t pie in the sky liberalism, seriously, if the US, Russia and China, simply remained the three large nuclear powers on Earth, this would benefit each of them enormously, much more than they are benefitted by allowing proliferation to happen with their resources, their technology, and their money.

Even Xi and Putin, would admit, if being candid, that it would have been better to prevent Kim from getting a nuke, than it was helping him, after the US uses low yield tactical and/or battlefield nukes — on the NK peninsula — to stop Kim.

Trump is hoping Putin and Xi figure this out, before he has to act.