Quantum Computing is on the horizon: 15% chance in next 10 years

The world is about to be transformed. The near future will be shaped by innovative vision and determined resiliency. Moore’s law has proven true for the last 2 decades, but a new paradigm is on the horizon. Quantum Computing poses a number of world-shifting opportunities and some salient and known threats.

The age is near where a few powerful entities have access to quantum computing which can decrypt the most widely used cryptographic methods and access is granted to unknown actors through remote networks.

A Post Quantum World Scenario

Cyber-War

Wars are often not won or lost solely based on power. Whether a siege or guerrilla warfare, the underlying belief of the troops breathes life into the campaign. In the words of Bat-muffin (Slack member),

The rise of cyberpower as a tactical and political weapon, particularly when coupled with quantum computing, will have as much of an influence on geopolitical strategies as did the advent of nuclear weapons. A quantum attack could result in a blockchain Armageddon

So when it comes to war, there are already those who are preparing to exploit the weakness that exist today: elliptical curve cryptography (ECC) and large prime number cryptography (RSA). That weakness has been evident for years, but the capacity to act was not possible without quantum computing.

Quantum Computing unravels Security as we know it.

ECC & RSA encryption has provided the route for individuals to maintain their privacy, secrecy and control of their digital lives. While operating in the background, it is the foundation upon which many of our digital lives are built. It is wildly known the siege of cyberattackers and intelligence agencies is ongoing, but since 1991¹, users of the digital devices have been able to have a level of confidence. However, Quantum Computing will introduce new variables that require preparation and strategy, or else, for a time, battles will be lost. If a continuous cyber war is a part of our current world’s fabric, then maturing blockchain techology which challenges the status quo, must be prepared. It is vital to remember that we operate in a time where forces are unleased on the world that we don’t fully grasp or understand. This includes nuclear weapons to the recent ransomware hack. This is one of the reasons banks and financial institutions have begun to prepare post-quantum cryptographic transfer¹.

Government

However, it is important to back up a little bit. Before thinking about war, it is important to consider government. Governments that rise to influence and significance often take actions that are rooted in carrying its people into the future. Governments without foresight become anemic and feed on themselves. Over-reach and stagnation can be the primary stumbling blocks for the trust that supports the entire system. Therefore, there is an interest by every institution to position itself to be at the forefront of technology and maximize its position. They are also preparing themselves by investing in post-quantum cryptography⁵.

It is in the “national interest” of governments to achieve quantum computing and remove threats to its monetary systems, sovereignty and borders. Blockchain technology is increasingly such a threat and post-quantum cryptography is a solution.

The goals of many blockchain networks are to redefine monetary system², create non-geographical delineated nations supported by decentralized networks that cross borders³ or mature into a self-regulated network⁴. Therefore, there are only a few options for governments as the technologies mature and grow from a niche financial technology to a transformation of how all transactions are handled. The most likely are that they achieve quantum computing and destabilize these technologies, invest with sufficient weight to control them, ignore them or integrate them into the current systems. So what happens if they decide to take the 1st path?

What path of recourse does blockchain technology have if a government decides to destabilize a network? If the recourse is not sufficient then security must be paramount.

Business

Google chip for quantum computing

Then you have businesses. Currently, the forefront developer of quantum computing technology is Google. They expect to have a 49 qubit quantum computer this year⁶. This 7x7 array is postulated to be a foundational building block for scaling. In addition, businesses don’t create these technologies out of the kindness of their heart, typically. This is a move to leverage the myriad of world changing uses from better understanding genetics to mapping the mind, processing data faster and creating new neural network uses. However, they also will make money by selling utilization of the computational power to other entities. This is where the potential for a dramatic impact on nations, organizations, institutions and individuals begin to arise.

The Heist

What measures will be in place to stop the utilization of these powerful computational systems from applying Shor’s algorithm to Bitcoin or Ethereum’s networks?

Even if the system is $1 Million dollars a day, that is sufficient to target a series of accounts and grab the private keys. With over $100 Billion dollars in capital moving within blockchain accounts, this represents a giant target. The moving of funds in the attack doesn’t even have to be immediate. They just need to unlock the door for later. This isn’t going to be a sensational high stakes robbery. It will be done slowly and under the radar. There will not be a smoking gun. They will move in and no one will know. So how do you hardfork when you don’t know who owns the account. The year of quantum computing #Y2Q will not be a single day, but a long period of uncertainty and confusion. So, why use an outdated lock and wait for this to happen?

In addition, it is foolish to assume that just because you are on a network and protected from quantum computing, because you have a multi-signature wallet or an optional lamport signature, that the vulnerability of others would not affect you. My favorite example of this is crime and hazards. If you live in a neighborhood where crime is high or hazards occur frequently, even if you are prepared, the valuation of your house is going to take a hit. Thus, if you are worried about value, get everyone ready, or move somewhere else.

Final Thoughts

I believe blockchain technology is creating unique communities and is a unique place. While the marketcap is higher than the GDP of some small countries⁷ it is still miniscule when compared to the financial power of the most developed nations. Therefore, as a decentralized community, we each have to make the decisions for ourselves about what kind of approach we want to take to risk. Personally, I like taking smart risks. If I see a vulnerability, I don’t want to wait until it breaks to resolve.

Ultimately, the question before the world is one of preparation. Since 1991, encryption and cryptography has been in the hands of the everyday user⁸. This hard fought battle laid the ground work for the accessibility and utilization of encryption to secure email, messages, bank accounts and transactions of all kinds. Financial institutions have been encrypting their networks since the 1970s⁹. Therefore, it is important to realize that if blockchain wants to be an institution that provides decentralized opportunities to individuals, it has to think like an institution. Blockchain networks must consider the ramifications of its decisions and the impact on its users. There are calculated risks and unnecessary risks. A quantum resistant ledger is a result of assessing the risk and determining that it is in the best interest of the community to prepare.

A quantum resistant ledger, is not just focused on the idea of being a hedge against quantum computing attacks, but it is in preparation to become a network of choice for the building of an institutional presence. I believe that blockchain is in its infancy and if it wants to become involved in long-term assets and transactions, it has to think long-term. Long-term includes thinking about quantum computing and dealing with that threat.

So, I am reaching out to governments, non-profit organizations, financial institutions, communication companies, real estate firms and individuals and more to identify their long-term needs. This is helping me to further refine the roadmap and create architecture that is amenable for mediums of exchange, post-quantum end-end communication channels, authenticated and verified digital identification, proof of ownership with relevant transactions and governance (specifically voting and polls).