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Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666

Friend us on Facebook Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 14, 2016 Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION: Where to go & what to do in the face of worsening Climate Chaos

Geoffrey Chia, January 2016

For abbreviations, see glossary at end

For the world, 2014 was the hottest year on record until 2015 proved even hotter. Fourteen of the fifteen hottest years ever recorded were from 2000 onwards. There is far worse yet to come. For decades we have been witnessing ever more frequent, ever more extreme weather events. Every year temperature, drought, storm and flood records are now being broken by the tens of thousands. They will become more frequent and more extreme until they plateau at an unknown global temperature equilibrium in the indeterminate future, by which time our planetary ecosystems will be catastrophically devastated. Objective realists who understand the climate science will accept that there is zero chance we can keep GATR under 4 degrees Celsius, even if all greenhouse gas emissions were to cease immediately. We have passed too many tipping points 1 . The IPCC blatantly ignored numerous vital issues (eg exponential methane release) in their climate calculations due to contamination by political interference. James Hansen called COP21 a "half assed and half baked" fraud (his exact words).

We must constructively use the precious time we have now, while our large scale organisational systems are still (barely) functioning, to act. Sensible people must find strategies to mitigate against or avoid the potential weather catastrophes which could befall them. For those of you who are willing and able, this may boil down to one thing: preparing to relocate. This is not selfish behaviour, it is simply taking responsibility for yourself. By ensuring your own safety you will represent one less family or group taking up the time and resources of the overwhelmed emergency services during periods of crisis. Worsening weather events combined with looming economic collapse and Hi-NES depletion mean that soon there will be no possibility of help from the authorities. No more water bombing from helicopters to save houses foolishly built in the middle of fire prone bush, to name just one example.

The MSM this recent December/January reported unprecedented storms in the USA (seven consecutive days of winter tornadoes in Texas – which has never happened in recorded history), unprecedented floods breaking the banks of the Mississippi, horrific floods in the UK (hundreds had to abandon their homes in York), severe floods in Northern Australia, unprecedented January floods in the NSW Hunter Valley and devastating wildfires in December in Southern Australia causing closure of the Great Ocean Road (and incineration of more than a hundred houses) to name just a few events. This did not even touch on the troubles in the less prosperous parts of the world, such as unprecedented floods in Brazil and Argentina affecting many more people, casually glossed over by the Western MSM.

On the other hand, New York city was 20 degrees Celsius on Christmas day, when it "should" have been in the subzero range. Approaching New Year's day, we witnessed mid winter temperatures above 0 degrees C at the North Pole, which was about 30 degrees C above the usual average for that time of year http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/weather-anomaly-north-pole-1.3385175

Welcome to the new normal.

I agree with Nicole Foss that it is foolish to paralytically mope over the prospect of AGW induced NTHE, it gets you nowhere. It is eminently sensible however to use our understanding of future climate chaos to plan and act. She herself made the rational decision to move from Northern hemisphere continental Canada to Southern hemisphere maritime NZ and I suspect climate change was one important reason. Her words and behaviour are those of a wise person with a great deal of foresight and we could do worse than emulate her.

Those who choose to gnash their teeth, tear their hair out and commit suicide now because they are inconsolably depressed about the prospect of NTHE are entitled to do so, but such WACKOs should shut up, die quietly and stop annoying normal people who value whatever remaining life they may have and wish to get on with useful activity to mitigate against future suffering and premature death.

Normal people should certainly take into account the prospect of worsening climate chaos when shaping future plans. One useful activity if you currently live in a risky area, is to ponder the characteristics of the ideal "climate safe" location, consider your options, then plan to move to the location with the best features you can find. Much better to be a pre-collapse intentional migrant, with your material and social resources all set in place in advance, rather than a post-collapse climate refugee fleeing with just the shirt on your back, swept along amongst a sea of strangers. Pre-emptive action will not eliminate your future risk of death or injury from weather extremes, which can still occur unpredictably in unexpected locations. But it will drastically reduce your risk.

Scientifically honest ( not IPCC) climate projections, Geography and hard Physics are our main guiding principles, however other factors may prevail due to personal circumstance. I may identify Southern Chile as the location with the best long term survival prospects climatically, however I am unwilling and unable to move there for social, cultural, linguistic, logistical, financial, immigration and other reasons. Another drawback may be that your chosen "climate safe" location may not offer the very best prospects for the provision of fresh water, energy, fertile soils or security from the "marauding hordes". There may be ways around such limitations though. There is no such thing as a "perfect" location and decisions must always be made by considering advantages versus disadvantages, combined with your own value judgements.

It is impossible to be certain which location will be the very best, but if we encourage the creation of as many self sufficient homesteads and eco-communities as possible around the world in locations considered the "least bad", it will increase the prospect that at least one of them will end up being viable in the long term. If thousands of self sufficient homesteads are set up worldwide, it will not matter if 99.9% eventually fail, all we need is a handful or even just one of them to succeed in the long term to avoid NTHE.

If it is impossible for you to relocate right now, you can nevertheless pre-arrange prospective settlement at your chosen "least bad" destination right now. Options include purchasing or leasing the land (as an individual or group, depending on your situation) or entering some other contract (eg you can pre-negotiate sweat equity) 2 . You must also formulate a bugout plan to move there at short notice when your current neck of the woods threatens to destabilise. One strategy may be to build an offgrid tiny house on wheels which you can tow to your final destination, if pre-built accomodation is not available for you there. You must however move before chaos descends in your current neighbourhood, before highways become dangerous or blockaded and/or before such time that you cannot source sufficient petroleum for the long distance journey required. Better to be a few years early than one minute late.

In general terms, the likely temporal sequence for global collapse is: financial/economic collapse first, resource/oil constraints next and climate issues last. In specific terms however, many people have already had their homes wrecked by floods and storms or had to abandon their farms due to drought. In their case, climate collapse occurred first. We cannot know for sure what will hit us first and need to plan for everything simultaneously.

TRADITIONAL RIVERINE AND FLOOD PLAIN SETTLEMENTS

It is no coincidence that thousands of years ago; human settlements, agriculture and hence civilisation arose in river valleys or river deltas around the world wherever there was a hospitable climate. Rivers are sources of fresh water for drinking, cooking, washing and growing crops. Periodic flooding with the deposition of alluvial silt regenerated the soils with the necessary minerals and nutrients to enable sustainable crop yields over millenia. Wide valleys created by meandering rivers provided the flat land which was far easier to work on and travel over than, say, hillsides. (Difficult terrain did not however prevent humans in less geographically favourable areas such as the Andes from devising ingenious alternative methods such as terraced agriculture thousands of years ago).

Hence we can understand why a place like Bangladesh has such a large population today, although their days are now numbered due to inevitable sea level rise (not to mention other AGW threats such as more severe cyclones, disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers causing loss of summer irrigation and possible eventual failure of the monsoons).

Even before the days of AGW, there were significant disadvantages to settlement in a river valley or delta. Those very same seasonal floods which replenished the soils, if severe, could bring death and destruction in their wake, events which were well documented in the ancient records of the Egyptians (Nile) or Chinese (Hwang Ho), to give just two examples.

Another major disadvantage to riverside settlement was that before the advent of modern sanitation, the riverbank dwellers used those flowing waters both as a source of drinking water as well as an open sewer, resulting in orofecally transmitted diseases becoming endemic, with periodic lethal epidemics 3 (affecting all the riverine communities downstream of the very highest settlement). Orofecal diseases could still be a problem for those who lived distant from the river banks, because raw faeces deposited in cesspits could contaminate the groundwater and nearby wells.

Nevertheless the advantages of river valley/delta settlement were on the whole much greater than the disadvantages. Despite periodic mass fatalities, the populations in those areas steadily increased.

However circumstances have now changed.

CHOOSING A "LEAST BAD" PLACE TO LIVE, IN THE FACE OF THE "NEW NORMAL"

AVOIDING EXTREME HEAT

With global average temperatures rising, we are witnessing the migration of tropical diseases to higher latitudes. With peak temperature records being broken we are witnessing more frequent and more severe heatwaves which will become ever more lethal (to humans, livestock and crops) as time goes by. With regard to such heat issues, the identification of our "ideal" location is dictated impassively by Geography and the Laws of Physics. However where we actually move to, if we move at all, is largely determined by social and emotional factors.

Land masses heat up much more quickly (and cool faster) than bodies of water. Comparatively speaking, water has a very high specific heat capacity. Therefore large bodies of water moderate local temperatures, they prevent huge temperature fluctuations. Thus windward coasts and islands have a maritime climate: the prevailing winds come from across the sea and prevent temperature extremes. This is exemplified by the Pacific coast of Canada which has the mildest climate of that country. On the other hand, even though Nova Scotia is maritime, being on the leeward (Eastern) side of Canada, it receives major atmospheric influences from the North American land mass. In winter it is considerably colder than Vancouver Island and in summer Westerly winds can drive the Nova Scotian temperatures higher.

Locations in the middle of continents are prone to the worst extremes of temperature. Indeed, just a short distance (eg 50km) inland from the coast can make a large difference. Humans can cope with extreme cold by layering on more insulation, but it is high temperatures which are more dangerous for large bodied mammals which are physiologically unable to dissipate heat above a wet bulb temperature of about 36 degrees Celsius. Humans can still survive during extreme heatwaves by retreating into underground dwellings or hillside caves. However the crops will not survive, nor will the livestock (unless the latter are also brought into the human cave dwellings during heatwaves – which will be unsanitary and may prove impossible due to lack of space and rambunctious animals). Even locations in the far North of Russia may be prone to lethal heatwaves in future summers, especially after the all permafrost, which now helps moderate the summer temperatures, melts (see paragraph on the latent heat of fusion of ice below). Furthermore the massive methane liberation from Northern Russia has accelerated their localised warming. Another contributor to the exponential temperature rise in the far North was the loss of albedo or reflectivity (the dark land or dark Arctic waters absorb light and hence heat up further, as opposed to the previous white snow or ice cover which reflected much of the light back into space).

Even before our current era of AGW (and before the advent of public health measures); malaria, a tropical disease, previously reached as far North as Archangel (near the Arctic circle) in Russia in summer 4 (and was even documented North of the Arctic circle in Finland). In the future, no matter how far North on the Eurasian or North American continents you may emigrate, there may still be some risk of intermittent lethal heatwaves from continental Southerly winds in summer, unless you live on the windward (Western) coast of the continents eg the Pacific coast of Canada or Alaska or the Atlantic coast of Norway. Windward islands such as Vancouver Island (influenced by the Pacific) or Iceland, Ireland and Britain (influenced by the Atlantic) will also be much less prone to lethal heatwaves than continental locations. However as we can see from the winter storms and severe flooding that the UK recently suffered, they will not be immune to other problems.

Instead of moving to a higher latitude, some may consider moving to a higher altitude to avoid heatwaves. Depending on the height of the mountain you have in mind and depending on your timeline (eg a relatively short 20 years), this may be a valid strategy. However such a move may leave you stranded. We are observing right now the phenomenon of many species of plants and animals migrating up mountainsides as the years become progressively hotter, however once they reach the summit there is nowhere to go. If temperatures rise further and they are species unique to that mountain, they will go extinct.

Here is another drawback: high altitude locations are inevitably somewhat inland from the ocean dominated, temperature moderated coast. Hence unless your altitude is very high, the reduction in temperature afforded by your altitude may be negated by your location inland in the heat of summer, resulting in no net temperature benefit. Indeed you may eventually face net temperature detriment as AGW progresses, with nowhere to go.

It is possible the only prospect of long term survival may be the combination of high latitude and altitude, the ultimate being the mountains on Antarctica, the last resort if the world becomes horrendously hotter (eg 10 degrees Celsius GATR), perhaps a century from now.

The far North, including the Arctic ocean, will be completely ice free in summer and autumn very shortly. The Southern hemisphere offers much better survival prospects compared with the Northern hemisphere. Large ice masses are extremely important to moderate the temperature.

One calorie is defined as the amount of heat which raises one gram of water by one degree Celsius. The latent heat of fusion of ice is about 80 calories per gram http://www.britannica.com/science/latent-heat. This means that it takes 80 calories to melt one gram of ice to one gram of water at the unchanged temperature of zero degrees. If another 80 calories is then applied to that one gram of water, its temperature will rise to 80 degrees Celsius. This is indisputable Physics, a law of Nature. But it has horrendous implications for an ice free far North.

The last remaining ice in the world will be on Antarctica, which will moderate the temperature of the Southern Ocean, which will in turn moderate the temperatures of far South coastal locations such as the tip of South America and the South Island of NZ. Hence even when the far North of Russia or Canada may be prone to lethal heatwaves in the Northern summer, the coastal and island locations deep in the Southern hemisphere will still offer comfortable living temperatures in the Southern summer, at least till the ice on Antarctica melts. Mainland Australia is too far North to be viable, that entire continent will be toast.

Other reasons why the deep south of the Southern hemisphere will be much more viable for survival are:

low population density, hence less marauding hordes and more land area per capita on which to grow food and

minimal risk of nuclear fallout, whether from global thermonuclear conflict or the meltdown of nuclear power stations (almost all of the 400+ nuclear power stations in the world are in the Northern hemisphere). The Coriolis force from planetary rotation keeps the air masses of the Northern and Southern hemispheres largely separate, almost quarantined from each other.

AVOIDING EXTREME STORMS

Tornadoes, although horrifically fierce, impose their fury with very localised focus, they only cause damage in geographically very limited areas. On the large scale, the most violent and powerful storms on Earth are of course hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons, which originate at sea. Their formation generally require a surface ocean temperature above 26.5 degrees C https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclogenesis which is why at present they do not commence at high latitudes. With prog ressive AGW, future cyclones will produce much worse precipitation and flooding because saturated air contains 7% more water vapour for every 1 deg C temperature rise. Furthermore, much of the energy of the cyclones come from the latent heat of condensation of that water, hence more moisture means fiercer storms. Wind speeds of well over 300km/hr have been recorded in such storms in recent years. These projections are indisputable Physics, just as robust as the law of gravity. In future, cyclones will undoubtedly be moving to higher latitudes. For example in Queensland, cyclones are a routine summer hazard in Cairns, but are exceedingly rare in Brisbane. It is just a matter of time however before cyclones also become a regular feature of the Brisbane summers.

The power of cyclones dissipate when they move inland. Hence to avoid cyclones, the options are to move far inland, which is not ideal because you will then be at risk of future severe summer heatwaves from the continental influence, or to stay on the coast but move to a higher latitude. What is the highest latitude that the cyclones will eventually reach? No one knows, hence it is best to move to the highest latitude you are able.

Wherever you end up, you will still encounter intermittent storms. If you settle on a high latitude island, it will at least be preferable to encounter a 150km/h storm, than if you stay at a lower latitude location and face a 300km/h hurricane.

AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC FLOODS AND SEA LEVEL RISE

The approach here appears simple: do not live on a flood plain or river valley and choose an elevation above the expected sea level rise. The actual elevation you choose will be more complicated though. It depends on the projected worst case scenarios, as well as on how long you expect you, your children or your grandchildren will live. If your timeline is 20 years, you can choose a lower elevation but if your timeline is 80 years, you should choose a higher elevation. Alternatively you may begin on a lower level and if you have easily demountable or mobile housing, you or your offspring can later move up in the world.

My advice would be to ignore the IPCC worst case scenario of up to 1 metre sea level rise by 2100, it is rubbish. They have a terrible track record of underestimating the rate of glacial melt and the rate of sea level rise which we now know is proving to be non-linear. James Hansen's analysis indicates it could be exponentially worse than originally expected and even a 10 metre sea level rise is possible by 2065. However if your timeline is, say 40 years (ie up to mid century), then choosing land which is a minimum of ten metres AMSL is probably acceptable for now, perhaps a bit higher if your location is coastal and subject to severe storm surges. By David Wasdell's reckoning, well over 20 metres AMSL future rise is already baked into the cake, based on our existing 480ppm CO2 equivalent GHG concentrations. However no one knows when that final level will eventuate.

Quite apart from sea level rise or riverine flooding at low altitudes, even a location high up in the mountains may be prone to occasional flash flooding during thunderstorms, due to rapid surface runoff and temporary pooling caused by the topography, hence do your homework before choosing any piece of land.

WATER SOURCES

By choosing to live away from river valleys and other flood prone areas, you will not have access to large rivers or lakes, which are the most copious and most easily accessible sources of fresh water. How then will you obtain and manage your water needs with less copious sources?

Rainfall

Being on the windward coast of a continent and facing the prevailing ocean winds does NOT guarantee regular rainfall, or indeed any rainfall at a ll. Ocean currents play a vital role. On the mid latitude West coasts of South America and Africa, cold ocean currents (Humbolt and Benguela) ensure that warm moist onshore winds release their precipitation well before reaching land, resulting in the Atacama and Namib deserts.

On the other hand, at the extremes of Southern latitude, windward mountainous coasts tend to have the most reliable relief rainfall in the world, due to the unim peded passage of Westerly winds across the uninterrupted belt of the Southern Ocean (the roaring forties and furious fifties). These features are determined by Geography and the rotation of the Earth. Locations such as the Southwest coast of NZ and far South Chile are at present unpleasantly cold and wet, resulting in a low population density. However with worsening AGW and reliable fresh water being the most valuable future resource, those locations are likely to become the most favourable (or the least unfavourable) for human habitation. One disadvantage of those locations is that they are prone to earthquakes (as well as volcanic eruptions in the case of Chile).

CSIRO projections over the next 25 years suggest that the movement of the Hadley cells towards the Poles will lead to more summer rains in the Northern Australia and less winter rains in the deep South of Australia. http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au CSIRO / BOM January 2015 report. Right now, Adelaide and Melbourne are suffering from ever worsening summer heat waves and becoming ever drier and we need to seriously question if they may become completely unviable over the next 10 years.

Wells and boreholes

Hillside rain which seeps into the ground may enter porous strata or rock fractures, through which it will continue to move by the force of gravity. It will then be analogous to an "underground stream", an aquifer containing moving water. A spring is nothing more than the surface exit point of this "underground stream" on a hillside, as it encounters impermeable rock underneath. As such, the spring depends on regular hillside rainfall to be recharged.

Not all wells and boreholes are the same. Some may tap into "underground streams", which eventually drain by gravity into rivers, lakes or the sea. These wells and boreholes are also dependent on regular rainfall to be recharged. Hence having a well or borehole will not necessarily drought proof your property.

Some aquifers are proper underground reservoirs. Their water does not drain away if untapped. On the large scale, humans have unsustainably harvested the largest fossil aquifers on the various continents (eg Ogallala in North America) as one-off windfall resources. Numerous boreholes tapping into the same aquifer leads to competitive depletion. Recharge by rainfall can occur but is a very slow process and depending on the aquifer may take thousands to millions of years. They are generally too deep anyway for small scale homesteaders to access.

Processing seawater

Turning seawater into freshwater is very energy intensive. On the other hand, if you live near the coast and your freshwater streams, dams, springs and boreholes have gone dry, seawater is the only water source which is guaranteed to never, ever disappear.

The fastest rate of production of freshwater from seawater is achieved by reverse osmosis. The output of the smallest marine desal unit for a boat is around 25 litres per hour and it can be powered by solar panels (or other renewable electricity). I would however advise against depending on this technology. Even though "reverse flush" mechanisms can prolong the lifespan of the membranes, it is complicated technology with many potential points of failure (solar panels, voltage regulator, batteries, high pressure pump, membranes etc). Despite careful maintenance, it can and will eventually fail. The best units having a lifespan of about 8 years. Furthermore it is very expensive.

Distillation of seawater by boiling is simple and foolproof but very energy wasteful (firewood is valuable fuel) and produces only small volumes each time. Nevertheless you may have to resort to this in an emergency. It produces absolutely pure and sterile drinking water (perhaps pure to the point of blandness).

MITIGATING AGAINST DROUGHT: Innovative Water Management Strategies in your chosen "least bad" location

Let us take this scenario: you have chosen to settle on the West coast of Vancouver Island.

The lowest point of your property at the oceanfront is 10 metres AMSL and the highest point is 30 metres. You are not on a flood plain or in a river valley. Your homestead is horizontally 200 metres from the ocean front and the gradient and topography of your land ensure excellent runoff of heavy rain straight into the sea, hence you are immune to floods. There are no trees in the immediate vicinity of your home, minimising incineration risk should a nearby bush fire erupt. Your land gradually slopes down to the South enabling optimal passive solar heating of your off-grid cottage and greenhouse and optimal sun exposure for growing your crops. Your soil is impoverished, however you have purchased tonnes of chemical fertiliser to kickstart your crops. You will in future "close the nutrient loop" by "fertigation" with urine mixed with gray water, as well as application of mulch, livestock manure and human manure which will (in future) be rendered innocuous by composting for 1-2 years before being used as fertiliser. You are exploring the possibility of using a modified solar oven setup to greatly speed up the composting of the manure.

You have no access to any large lake or river, but have a small spring and pond on your property which have never gone dry in living memory. Given that we are now regularly experiencing unprecedented weather events never before seen in living memory, you are rightly concerned that your spring and pond could dry up during an unexpectedly prolonged drought in future. The probability may be low, given that you are on the windward side of a mountainous island which tends to have reliable rainfall, however if such a drought does occur it will spell complete disaster for you. Fresh water is a sine qua non for life. Hence the precautionary principle dictates that you must plan for such an eventuality.

You cannot tap into a deep aquifer. A hydrogeologist has advised you that there is a fair likelihood of striking shallow groundwater (above the saline level) with an exploratory borehole, however the water resource in that underground "stream" will be similar to your surface spring in that both require rainfall to be recharged. If the rains fail and the spring runs dry, the borehole can also run dry (although ground water is generally more resistant to surface drought). What other water management options do you have?

We are incredibly fortunate these days to have access to very simple low tech and highly robust strategies to address these concerns, namely: water tanks, the urine separating composting toilet, the ability to use gray water for irrigation, drip irrigation of crops and (in emergency) distillation of seawater using custom designed solar ovens.

WATER TANKS

The water storage tank is neither a glamorous nor a recent invention, which may explain why its impact has been largely ignored and overlooked. The use of in-ground tanks (with impermeable fired-clay lining) to store fresh water dates back thousands of years, the precursor to the in-ground concrete reservoir. The much cheaper (and transportable) above ground steel or plastic rainwater storage tank represents the key innovation which now enables us to live far from rivers and lakes while still enjoying regular fresh water supplies to meet all our needs, including permaculture. The "new normal" climate in many parts of the world is becoming that of furious thunderstoms (which lead to flash flooding and rapid runoff losses of most of the water), alternating with prolonged crippling droughts. The water tank allows us to quickly harvest the profuse but transient bounty of the thunderstorms and can tide us through long dry periods. How long we can last between rainshowers depends on our annual rainfall, roof collection area and tank capacity, measured against our rate of water consumption. Each homestead will have to do its own calculations, however if in doubt the best strategy is to simply collect and store as much rainwater as you are able.

This other side of the equation, reduction of water consumption , is a key principle which must be strongly emphasised and reinforced over and over. Efficient water usage can enable huge savings, allowing a little to go a long way. The next three sections describe revolutionary methods of water conservation which still enable outcomes every bit as good as compared with our current standard wasteful water practices.

THE URINE SEPARATING COMPOSTING TOILET

Our standard flush toilets discard huge volumes of precious drinking quality water down the drain. One full flush may utilise as much as nine or ten litres and a partial flush perhaps three litres. It all adds up to criminal waste which can be entirely prevented by the adoption of flushless toilets, the best type (in my opinion) being the odourless urine separating composting toilet which fulf ils a multitude of functions, yet has the most basic KISS design. I have discussed this topic in greater detail in my article on tiny houses, which also described a very water efficient way of bathing:

http://www.resilience.org/resource-detail/2544932-building-a-tiny-house

Imagine this: due to your simple adoption of the urine separating composting toilet, additional pristine fresh water (which in conventional toilets would have normally been flushed down the sewer), is freed up, leading to a surfeit of freshwater availability which well exceeds your daily drinking and domestic needs. Not only that, after being used in the kitchen or laundry or shower, the gray water is not simply discarded either: it is sent onward to irrigate your permaculture enclosure, to grow your crops. This is easily done with simple forward planning and represents the ultimate in water efficiency. In addition urine and (fully composted) humanure are valuable additions to the permaculture garden.

DOMESTIC GRAY WATER FOR IRRIGATION:

Conventional urban systems discard gray water into sewers where it mixes with raw faeces. This effluent is minimally processed at a central sewage plant then discharged, usually into a rivermouth or the sea. Sewage containing raw or minimally processed faeces is biologically hazardous and unacceptable for irrigation. This system requires pumps, hence if the grid goes down, the sewage system seizes up. Severe floods can cause the system to back up and if the riverbanks break and the sewage treatment plants are flooded, the entire waterlogged landscape becomes contaminated.

At the top end, lake, reservoir or upstream river water is harvested for domestic, industrial or agricultural use. Denial of natural downstream riverine flow causes the death of these ecosystems.

Here is an alternative decentralised approach which can be adopted on any rural homestead: Fresh urine with no fecal admixture is sterile. If the urine is separated at source and mixed with domestic gray water (free of chemicals and excessive phosphates) this nitrate rich fluid now represents a valuable and biologically safe resource for crop irrigation. It must not however be stored in tanks where it will become noxious, but must be immediately discharged from your dwelling into your drip feed irrigation pipes or swales in your permaculture enclosure, where soil organisms can process it and plants can utilise it.

The ideal permaculture setup will be one in which no (or minimal) pumps are needed, the water being channeled by gravity feed. Here is one suggestion using the example of a group of tiny houses. The reed beds may in fact be redundant:

The domestic gray water supply alone is unlikely to be sufficient for irrigation requirements, hence dual irrigation feeds (from domestic gray water and directly from the rainwater tanks) will need to be set up.

DRIP IRRIGATION

Standard sprinklers spray water indiscriminately about, with much of it landing on soil distant from the plant roots. This ill targeted water then simply evaporates. Drip irrigation, feeding water directly to the roots of the plants, has a long history and has been refined over millenia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drip_irrigation

The methods are well proven and need to be embraced more widely.

SOLAR OVEN DISTILLATION OF SEAWATER

Your homestead on Vancouver Island is horizontally only 200 metres away from the ocean front, where the land suddenly dips down 10 metres, cliff-like, to the waters edge. It is an easy climb down the "cliff", hence you have easy seawater access. It is also simple to rig a solar powered seawater pump if you so choose.

Due to a prolonged drought, you will by now be bathing and washing your dishes with sea water rather than fresh water. However you will be able to distil enough fresh water not only for drinking and cooking but will also have surplus volumes to rinse away salt residue after you have washed yourself and your dishes with seawater. Hence you are adapting to changed circumstances without actually experiencing significant hardship or lifestyle compromise. Stored foodstuffs will see you through this period of crop failure. You have made it your policy to always have at least one year's worth of preserved food stored away.

Distillation of seawater using custom built large solar ovens may be a slow daytime-only process, however it is steady, reliable, robust, idiot proof and dirt cheap. Apart from an optional solar powered pump for seawater intake, it has no mechanical or electronic components to fail. Here is a self explanatory diagram:

Construction of such a solar oven will be dead simple, even for a "Homer Simpson" type carpenter like myself, but will of course be impossible if the materials are unobtainable in a post collapse situation. The key is to gather the necessary materials now before TSHTF, which you can store indefinitely in your shed until such time that construction becomes necessary.

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

Due to the attractive agricultural prospects and easy availability of copious freshwater in river basins, some folks may refuse to leave the riverine areas they are familiar with, which they have lived in all their lives. One way to cope with severe periodic floods will be to dwell in an off-grid, flat hulled houseboat. Modern houseboats are incredibly well appointed these days, with the same cavernous space, comfortable furniture and amenities of fixed conventional dwellings, indeed many houseboats are quite luxurious.

You will have your houseboat delivered by semitrailer to your plot and it will sit on dry land most of the time. However when the inevitable torrential downpour generates a veritable biblical flood and as the waters rise, so will your dwelling, keeping all within safe and dry. You will set two hefty anchors, more than enough to ensure your houseboat cannot be swept away by the fierce currents. The main risk will be from flotsam and jetsam impacting your hull. Prior steel reinforcement of the bow of your houseboat prevents structural damage 5 . You will laugh at the elements as you sip your cup of hot cocoa, warm, dry and lounging in your reclining armchair, as you gaze out of your watertight panoramic windows at the pelting rain. Your friend calls you on your mobile phone and you tell her you are thinking of changing your name to Noah and you both chuckle. She too is snug as a bug in a rug in her own houseboat.

CONCLUSION:

This article attempts to confer information which may be of actual use and value to readers. Therefore it could never appear on NBL, as their ideology insists that nothing can be done, hence everyone should to do nothing 6 , which will lead to their own self fulfilling prophecy of premature death.

This essay is not intended to be an exhaustive discourse on physics, geography, geology, weather and climate and by necessity must omit many details of the mechanics of these topics. Nevertheless the broad principles outlined enable a general understanding of what is happening and what is likely to happen. Qualified scientists are invited to point out any inadvertent factual errors I may have committed.

There is no single magical solution to the problems ahead. Each individual's circumstance and decision making will be different. This article is intended mainly to provoke thought and motivate your own personal planning and action to minimise your future risk.

Geoffrey Chia is and Australian Physician with a longstanding interest in sustainabillity issues

Footnotes:

Climate scientist Dr David Wasdell summarised the most objectively realistic planetary scenario (derived from proper peer reviewed science and not contaminated or watered down by political interference), projecting 8 to 10 degrees Celsius GATR in his comprehensive November 2015 presentation, available on his Apollo-Gaia webpage. You cannot simply invade and squat on someone else's land, otherwise you may be treated aggressively as one of the "zombie hordes", perhaps even killed. On the other hand, if you pre-negotiate your settlement there with the offer to grow food or provide other skills, you will be welcomed and valued. Indeed, this may have been the selection pressure which allowed the cystic fibrosis gene to persist in Western European populations. Individuals heterozygous for cystic fibrosis have slightly "stickier" secretions than those without the gene, hence may be less prone to fatal watery diarrhoea if infected with cholera. Homozygous individuals have extremely sticky secretions and die young from bronchiectasis (clogging of the tubes in the lungs) or secondary biliary cirrhosis (clogging of the tubes in the liver). I first learned this fact from Bruce-Chwatt's Essential Malariology which is the classic textbook on malaria. See also: https://contagions.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/malaria-near-the-arctic-circle/ Tools and equipment in sheds may be damaged or swept away unless they too are stored in floating watertight sheds which are also anchored in place. This may be impractical for large items such as tractors which can however be parked on a barge, which will also be anchored. A little bit of creativity can go a long way when planning for our challenging future. Except "pursue lives of excellence" which is an utterly meaningless platitude. Only stupid people would consider such an unhelpful catchphrase to be sage advice. It is akin to saying to the starving masses, "let them eat cake" or Joe Hockey saying to the public who cannot afford housing these days, "get a high paying job".

Glossary:

AGW = Anthropogenic Global Warming

AMSL = Above Mean Sea Level

COP21 = 21st Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris 2015, which attempted to negotiate global climate policy based on IPCC recommendations

GATR = Global Average Temperature Rise

IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KISS = Keep It Simple, Stupid

HI-NES = High Net Energy Sources (eg conventional oil sources before post-Peak depletion)

MSM = Main Stream Media

NBL = Nature Bats Last website

NTHE = Near Term Human Extinction

TSHTF = The Shit Hits The Fan

WACKOs = Whiny Anonymous Cowardly Killjoy Orcs