OPEC countries expect lower crude oil demand in 2020, even as global demand rises as competing producers take market share and the United States appears to be heading for a new record in production.

The United States, whose productivity has increased in recent years, will reach production of over 20 million barrels per day for the first time, according to the forecast of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The US production will amount to 20.21 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2020. This almost meets the country’s demand of 21.34 million barrels per day, OPEC said.

The organization lowered its forecast for demand for raw materials produced by the Member States in 2020 by 0.1 million barrels to 29.5 million barrels per day.

This would be about 1.2 million barrels per day lower than in 2019 and in line with production in December when OPEC’s share of global output dropped 0.1 percentage points to 29.4%.

The cartel’s market share is expected to decline further this year, while along with global demand, the output of countries outside the organization, such as the US, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Norway, and Guyana, is rising.

Prospects for growth in overall demand in 2020 were further increased by 0.14 million barrels per day after an increase of 1.22 million barrels per day, projected in the previous month. The rise in the forecast reflects improved economic prospects and a boom in demand in India and China.

“Continued monetary easing combined with improving financial markets could provide additional support for continued increases in supply outside OPEC”, predicted the organization.

OPEC and their allies are limiting their production to prevent oversupply and to keep oil prices above 60 USD per barrel. Their ongoing supply reduction deal expires in March.

“Cooperation between OPEC countries and non-cartel members remains essential to maintaining the stability of the oil market”, the organization said.