The industry body for the solar power sector is targeting marginal electorates – and the government is feeling the heat

The Kangaroo rugby league club in Queanbeyan isn’t the most obvious setting for an insurrection against the government’s renewable energy policy.

Midweek diners wolf down parmigianas and chips as an array of poker machines wink in the background. An NRL tipping competition at the bar is doing brisk business. The beer is decidedly non-craft.

But this no-nonsense venue, just 10km but a world away from parliament, is the latest stop in a national pro-renewables tour that is making the Abbott government decidedly uncomfortable.

Organised by the Solar Council, an industry body for the solar energy sector, the Save Solar Forum is targeting the 20 most marginal Coalition electorates in Australia. Its message, delivered via speeches to gatherings that are open to the public, is simple – retain the renewable energy target.

The RET, which stipulates that 41,000GW hours – currently about 26% – of Australia’s energy should come from renewable sources by 2020, appears to be under its greatest threat since being introduced by John Howard’s government.

A government-commissioned report by businessman Dick Warburton, who has expressed doubts over whether humans are influencing climate change, concedes that the RET has largely done its job. By requiring energy providers to buy renewable energy certificates it has helped expand wind, solar and other renewables, driving investment and jobs, all at a negligible cost to the taxpayer.

But this success is a problem, Warburton contends, and so the RET must be wound back or scrapped. Abbott is understood to favour the latter.

The clean energy sector argues this would be disastrous for the industry, imperilling about 20,000 jobs and billions of dollars of new investment. Work on new large-scale wind and solar projects has largely ground to a halt.

In Queanbeyan, the solar preacher in the pulpit is John Grimes, chief executive of the Solar Council. Grimes is fresh from a bruising encounter from Greg Hunt, the environment minister who once skydived in support of solar energy subsidies, following the last solar forum in Brisbane.

“There are people in this audience who will lose their jobs if this goes through and we will not just stand by and allow that to happen,” Grimes says, to whoops and applause. There is an air of confidence, the feeling that the government is rattled on this.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The crowd at the Save Solar Forum in Queanbeyan. Photograph: Glen Morris

It’s a decent turnout – about 400 people – with few spare seats. Grimes runs through a rather unflattering appraisal of the government’s record on renewables. A reminder that the treasurer, Joe Hockey, finds wind turbines “offensive” provokes derisive laughter and a few boos.

Queanbeyan sits in the bellwether NSW seat of Eden-Monaro, which the Coalition holds with one of its slimmest majorities. Former Howard aide Peter Hendy won the seat in 2013 with a margin of just 1,085 votes from moustachioed Labor incumbent Mike Kelly. Kelly is lurking ominously in the audience, sensing a group of voters that may have buyer’s regret.

Hendy is openly lampooned on stage, with an empty seat bearing his name. Someone in the audience calls Hendy a coward.

Hendy refused an invitation from Grimes, calling the forum a “Greens branch meeting.” The leader of the Greens, Christine Milne, who is also on stage, looks bewildered when Grimes mentions this.

“It’s vital we fight this campaign now, the Coalition MPs need to understand they need to change their leader’s position,” Grimes says.

“This isn’t a partisan issue, but we are resolute. The government needs to know this will hurt them politically. Your local member, Peter Hendy, needs to hear loud and clear that this is just not on. We think changing enough votes on this one issue will be a cinch.”

Mark Butler, Labor’s environment spokesman, isn’t impressed with Hendy.

“It’s pretty weak,” Butler says. “It’s the job of a member of parliament, especially when you’re drawing a salary paid for by taxpayers, to front up to hear every message the community wants to give you, whether it’s a comfortable or uncomfortable one.”

Still, given the hostility on display to the government’s position, it’s perhaps understandable that Hendy didn’t show up.

The polling isn’t pretty either – recent surveys have shown support for the RET in the region of 70% and higher. Newspoll found 98% of respondents are in favour of renewable energy. “What else do 98% of Australians agree on? Is there anything?” Butler asks rhetorically.

Earlier in the day, Hendy tells Guardian Australia the Solar Forum is “partisan” and unhelpfully scheduled on a parliamentary sitting day.

“They are simply attacking the government and me,” he says. “The government’s policy is to deal with the issue of climate change and a key part of that is to promote alternative energy sources.”

Hendy won’t comment on the Warburton report – the government has yet to officially respond – but says he appreciates that renewables need “some sort of subsidy”.

“I acknowledge that there is a place for subsidies,” he says. “Climate change and environmental issues are important issues for people in Eden-Monaro. Part of that is support for renewable energy so we’ll see how that pans out.”

Back in Queanbeyan, the audience certainly contains several Greens, but there are other groups. Retirees, men in high-vis vests, a few plumbers.

While the stalling of large-scale wind and solar projects worries some, the meat of the opposition to the government is derived from the remarkable take-up in household solar, largely in Coalition electorates.

About 1.2m Australian households have solar panels in their roofs. The demise of the RET would be bad news for anyone who would want to follow them in a bid to knock some dollars off their power bills.

There are more than 17,000 solar installations in Eden-Monaro (the wind industry has taken a back seat in this campaign, perhaps due to unfounded fears of turbines) and voters who have already invested readily take to the microphone to voice their grumpiness.

“I’ve installed a solar system on my house and I appreciate those savings,” says one, Hugh Howell. “Coal is the industry of the past and I don’t understand why this government is so beholden to these industries of the past. The Libs don’t seem to understand the world has changed.”

Moira Nelson, who has driven from Canberra, is on a disability pension and can’t afford rooftop panels. But she’d like the opportunity, one day.

“I’d really like it but the cost is a problem,” she says. “The newspapers seem to take a very political view on all this. It feels like we are losing our voice.”

The question of whether renewable energy, especially household solar, is popular is a fairly easy one to answer in the affirmative. The crucial aspect, politically for the Coalition, is how deep that popularity runs.

“People have wanted renewables for a long time,” says Butler afterwards. “My mum had a solar sticker on her car when I was young. But the unknown is how deeply people feel about it.

“My feeling is that it has the potential to be emblematic of the fact Tony Abbott doesn’t have his eye on the future and doesn’t have regard for evidence-based policy.”

The Solar Forum moves on, with its next stop in the Sydney seat of Barton. Grimes exhorts the audience to keep the faith.

“I need you to help us put the pressure on,” he says. “I can’t do the phone calls and write the emails myself. I need you all to send a message, to make them feel nervous.”