Pete Buttigieg hops onto the stage with a grin.

The speakers are blasting out High Hopes, by Panic! At the Disco. There is a small but respectable number of people in the crowd, especially given that a snow storm has just set in.

It’s natural Mr Buttigieg might be smiling. In addition to leading the polls in Iowa, a new survey published earlier in the day had seen his national position leap from fourth to second. The poll by Quinnipiac University put him on 16 points, second only to Joe Biden, and soaring past fellow Iowa frontrunner Elizabeth Warren, who tumbled to just 14 points from 28 last month.

Mr Buttigieg insists his campaign was not guided by polls, but it is not difficult to imagine his pleasure at pushing past the Massachusetts senator, who along with Mr Biden appears to be the most frequently mentioned Democrat to take on Donald Trump, or whoever else might be the Republican president next November. Another poll published on Tuesday showed him placed second in New Hampshire, which votes straight after Iowa.

“We try not to get too caught up in the polls, but it’s encouraging to see the continued momentum,” says Mr Buttigieg, who has taken off his jacket, but is otherwise dressed in what has become his 2020 campaign outfit: a dark or navy suit, with a navy tie and white shirt. “We’ve felt it on the ground for some time ... But we know, right now is the time [to get] our heads down, to keep working and getting the message out.”

The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Show all 25 1 /25 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Bernie Sanders The Vermont senator has launched a second bid for president after losing out to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He is running on a similar platform of democratic socialist reform Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Joe Biden The former vice president recently faced scrutiny for inappropriate touching of women, but was thought to deal with the criticism well and has since maintained a front runner status in national polling EPA The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Elizabeth Warren The Massachusetts senator is a progressive Democrat, and a major supporter of regulating Wall Street Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is a Minnesota senator who earned praise for her contribution to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Michael Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg, a late addition to the 2020 race, announced his candidacy after months of speculation in November. He has launched a massive ad-buying campaign and issued an apology for the controversial "stop and frisk" programme that adversely impacted minority communities in New York City when he was mayor Getty Images The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Tulsi Gabbard The Hawaii congresswoman announced her candidacy in January, but has faced tough questions on her past comments on LGBT+ rights and her stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Pete Buttigieg The centrist Indiana mayor and war veteran would be the first openly LGBT+ president in American history Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Deval Patrick The former Massachusetts governor launched a late 2020 candidacy and received very little reception. With just a few short months until the first voters flock to the polls, the former governor is running as a centrist and believes he can unite the party's various voting blocs AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Beto O'Rourke The former Texas congressman formally launched his bid for the presidency in March. He ran on a progressive platform, stating that the US is driven by "gross differences in opportunity and outcome" AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kamala Harris The former California attorney general was introduced to the national stage during Jeff Sessions’ testimony. She has endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major tax-credit for the middle class AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Bill De Blasio The New York mayor announced his bid on 16 May 2019. He emerged in 2013 as a leading voice in the left wing of his party but struggled to build a national profile and has suffered a number of political setbacks in his time as mayor AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Steve Bullock The Montana governor announced his bid on 14 May. He stated "We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people's voice, so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone." He also highlighted the fact that he won the governor's seat in a red [Republican] state Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Cory Booker The New Jersey Senator has focused on restoring kindness and civility in American politics throughout his campaign, though he has failed to secure the same level of support and fundraising as several other senators running for the White House in 2020 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Wayne Messam Mayor of the city of Miramar in the Miami metropolitan area, Wayne Messam said he intended to run on a progressive platform against the "broken" federal government. He favours gun regulations and was a signatory to a letter from some 400 mayors condemning President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord Vice News The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kirsten Gillibrand The New York Senator formally announced her presidential bid in January, saying that “healthcare should be a right, not a privilege” Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Delaney The Maryland congressman was the first to launch his bid for presidency, making the announcement in 2017 AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Andrew Yang The entrepreneur announced his presidential candidacy by pledging that he would introduce a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American over the age of 18 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Julian Castro The former San Antonio mayor announced his candidacy in January and said that his running has a “special meaning” for the Latino community in the US Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Marianne Williamson The author and spiritual adviser has announced her intention to run for president. She had previously run for congress as an independent in 2014 but was unsuccessful Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Eric Swalwell One of the younger candidates, Swalwell has served on multiple committees in the House of Representatives. He intended to make gun control central to his campaign but dropped out after his team said it was clear there was no path to victory Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Seth Moulton A Massachusetts congressman, Moulton is a former US soldier who is best known for trying to stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the house. He dropped out of the race after not polling well in key states Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Jay Inslee Inslee has been governor of Washington since 2013. His bid was centred around climate change AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Hickenlooper The former governor of Colorado aimed to sell himself as an effective leader who was open to compromise, but failed to make a splash on the national stage Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tim Ryan Ohio representative Tim Ryan ran on a campaign that hinged on his working class roots, though his messaging did not appear to resonate with voters Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tom Steyer Democratic presidential hopeful billionaire and philanthropist Tom Steyer is a longtime Democratic donor AFP/Getty

In truth, the mayor of South Bend cannot afford to stop working for a second. With his campaign constantly having to respond to controversies over race relations in Indiana, and polls showing his support among some African Americans to be virtually non-existent, it is currently difficult to see how he could capture the party’s nomination, let alone the White House.

Another poll by Quinnipiac University found his support among African American voters in South Carolina, which has a large black population and is the third state to vote, measured at zero. He has just six endorsements from black or hispanic elected officials; Mr Biden has 154.

Studies have shown African Americans, in particular African American women, are the US’s most reliable voters. No Democrat could win without them.

“Black women are the canaries in the mine. We know what can befall the community if we elect the wrong person,” says Christina Greer, associate professor of political science at Fordham University in New York. “We know if it’s bad for white women, it’s terrible for black women. If it’s bad for white men, we know it’s horrendous for black men.”

Asked why the 37-year-old polled so low among black voters, she says it may be because they do not yet know him very well. She says what they do know is related to those controversies during his two terms as mayor: the firing of a black police chief; a video that went viral this summer of him telling a black protester “I am not asking for your vote”; and the shooting dead of a black man by a police officer, the incident that people were demonstrating about.

On Tuesday, Mr Buttigieg faced more controversy when The Root published an article headlined “Pete Buttigieg Is a Lying MF”. The article, written by Michael Harriot, attacked the candidate over comments he made about black students from poor neighbourhoods who he said struggled because they did not have sufficient good role models.

“Kids need to see evidence that education is going to work for them,” Mr Buttigieg said during a forum in 2011. “There are a lot of kids, especially, the lower-income minority neighbourhoods, who literally just haven’t seen it work.”

The Root article pointed out Mr Buttigieg had attended “the best private schools in the country”. Speaking to reporters, and later in response to a question from a member of the public, he claimed he had learned from those remarks, and the way they were presented. He revealed he had also contacted the author of the article to discuss the issue for just under 20 minutes.

“What I said in that comment before I became mayor does not reflect the totality of my understanding then, and certainly now about the obstacles that students of colour face in our system today,” he says, speaking at Cronk’s Cafe, a diner, unchanged by time, in the town of Denison.

“I want to make sure I communicated that I’m very conscious of the advantages and privileges that I have had, not through any great wealth but certainly through education, through the advantages that come with being white and being male.”

Later, he is asked if he believes the controversies over race relations will ever leave him, or if they threaten to prevent him securing the nomination.

Pete Buttigieg brands Donald Trump's fake maps 'pathetic'

“I welcome that it is a topic of conversation, and an opportunity for us to share what we have got right in South Bend, what has come up short and what we will learn from,” he says.

Mr Buttigieg has positioned himself as a practical centrist, and sought to present himself differently to more ideologically rigid progressives, such as Mr Sanders and Ms Warren. A number of observers believe he is counting on Mr Biden eventually dropping from the race, and of him being able to tap into the support of those moderates.

As a result, while he wants there to be universal healthcare, he wants people to have the choice to enter a government-operated scheme, or keep their private plan. He has also questioned whether the costing plans to provide free education for college students, put forward by Ms Warren and Mr Sanders, add up.

Jean Ulmer, 80, and her 83-year-old husband are squeezed into the small space at Cronk’s Cafe, and they say they liked Mr Buttigieg’s energy.

“We have not made our minds up who we’re going to vote for,” they say.

In Sioux City, Christy Valentine says she’s attending her first ever political event. “I liked what I saw on TV. He seems to be cool, calm and collected.”

Asked if the fact Mr Buttigieg was gay would count against him in some communities, she says “possibly”. “It’s very conservative around here.”

At the heart of the military veteran’s stump speech, there is line about the day America wakes up after Mr Trump’s final day in office. The line usually receives cheers, but Mr Buttigieg also uses it to highlight the work that will lie ahead for whoever enters the Oval Office.

It is likely the country would be even more divided, and that major problems presently confronting the nation and the world – climate change, a skewed economy – would still be there to address.