King still King in Maine (Updated)

Republicans are making a major play in Maine, but it doesn't seem like former Gov. Angus King, who's running as an independent, is seeing his position undercut, according to the Bangor Daily News, which has a new poll showing GOP hopeful Charlie Summers inert and Democrat Cynthia Dill gaining traction:

Per the Maine People's Resource Center:

The survey found King with 44 percent support, Summers with 28 percent and Dill with 15 percent. Some 7 percent remained undecided in the contest, according to the survey, which polled 856 registered Maine voters between Sept. 15 and 17 and carries a margin of error of 3.35 percent. The Maine People’s Resource Center is affiliated with the left-leaning Maine People’s Alliance, a statewide advocacy group. The center’s survey also shows President Barack Obama is maintaining his edge in Maine over Republican Mitt Romney, 54 percent to 37 percent. Obama’s lead, however, is smaller in the state’s 2nd Congressional District, where he holds a 48-41 edge over Romney. His edge is 59-34 in the 1st District.

The NRSC and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have made major investments in the race in recent weeks, with $1 million spent on ads between the two groups. But Summers has major ground to make up.

UPDATED: Republicans may find this poll, from PPP, more appealing:

PPP's newest poll on the Maine Senate race finds it much closer than expected, with independent Angus King leading with 43% to 35% for Republican Charlie Summers, and 14% for Democrat Cynthia Dill. King's popularity is not what it was at the beginning of the campaign. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 35% with an unfavorable one. That +17 spread is down a net 21 points from March when he was at +38 with 62% of voters rating him positively and 24% holding a negative opinion. The drop in King's popularity has been across the board, but it's particularly acute with Republicans. He's gone from 43/38 with them to now 22/65. His declines with independents (from 69/20 to 57/30) and Democrats (from 74/14 to 69/19) have been more modest. It's reaching the point where King may need to more explicitly say he's going to organize as a Democrat if he wants to win this race. King is winning only 13% of the Republican vote at this point, but he's losing 26% of the Democratic vote to Dill. Among those already voting for King 64% want him to caucus with the Democrats if he's elected to only 9% who want him to side with the Republicans and 27% who are undecided. So he has more to gain by bringing Democrats voting for Dill into the fold than he does to lose by antagonizing his small number of Republican leaning supporters.

It is likely that Republicans wouldn't push this much by way of resources if they thought the reality matched the first poll as opposed to the second.



Maggie Haberman is senior political reporter for Politico.