Keep on dreaming: Scottish nationalists can still hope for independence if Westminster leaders don’t agree (Photo: Cathal Mcnaughton/Reuters)

We might have had a ‘No’ vote in last week’s Scottish independence referendum, but the political crisis which is following it means the nationalists’ cause isn’t dead in the water just yet.

Here’s how it might just happen in eight steps, in a destructive and disastrous process which could have started just a week ago…

Step one: The Westminster leaders, facing the possible break-up of the 307-year-old union, make a last-minute bid for votes by promising a massive transfer of powers from Westminster to Holyrood in the event of a ‘No’ vote.

Step two: After Scotland votes 55-45 in favour of sticking with Britain the entire Conservative party kicks up a stink, complaining that they don’t want to give Scotland more powers without getting more for England too.




MORE: David Cameron has killed off dreams of an independent Scotland – for now

Step three: Ed Miliband realises this is a not-very-secret bid to try and gives the Tories more power – because Labour has two-thirds of the Scottish MPs who could be excluded from voting on English-only issues in Westminster.

Step four: Miliband calls for a constitutional convention, to try and kick the issue into the long grass, while Cameron and the Tories insist that it’s only fair the English get to have their say too.

MORE: The final score: How each of Scotland’s regions voted in the referendum on independence

Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond leaves Bute House after announcing his resignation on Friday (Picture: Paul Hackett/Reuters)

The result is a standoff. Both sides are half-right: while the English do deserve more powers, Miliband was right to assume last week’s rushed deal didn’t commit him to this.

This is where we’ve got to right now. It’s far from clear what happens next. One side must back down – but if they don’t, there’s only trouble ahead. I reckon the worst-case scenario might look something like this:

Step five: The political impasse deepens into deadlock. Miliband doesn’t budge because doing so would mean sacrificing any chance of a majority at the next general election. Cameron can’t shift his position either, because of the sheer pressure from Tory MPs.

MORE: Scotland votes No: I’m disappointed for Scotland but all is not lost – this is just the beginning

Step six: The nationalists are enraged – and justifiably so. Alex Salmond’s claim that the ‘vow’ for more Scottish powers was the only reason he lost the referendum seems a fair one. Mass demonstrations take place across Glasgow, which voted to leave the UK. Pressure grows.

Step seven: At May 2016’s Scottish elections, the SNP are elected back into power off the back of a campaign demanding one thing: another referendum.

They’re returned with an increased majority, once again setting up the prospect of the end of the union. The 2014 vote was supposed to settle the matter for a generation – but given the broken promise in Westminster, everyone has to accept the Scottish deserve another chance to have their say.

Step eight: Scottish voters turn out in droves to back ‘Yes’.

A Yes Sign For Scottish Independence Referendum Vote In September 2014 (Picture: Getty)

Many of the undecideds who felt voting for independence was too much of a gamble decide to back the nationalist cause, precisely because Salmond’s rhetoric about the untrustworthiness of Westminster leaders appears to have come true.



The argument to ‘put Scotland’s future into Scotland’s hands’ becomes irresistible.

Right now, it’s a bit of a nightmare. But given the current crisis it’s not so implausible, is it?

Cameron and Miliband need to find a way to come to their senses and give the Scottish what they pledged.

Anything else is a basic failure of leadership – and a betrayal of all of us that would destroy politicians’ reputation for good.

This is always another option, of course (Picture: Cathal Mcnaughton/Reuters)