Tropical Cyclone Development Possible Next Week Across the NW Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico WeatherDecTech Follow May 18, 2018 · 4 min read

While the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still two weeks away (June 1), a tropical cyclone threat in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico may emerge at some point late next week.

Global weather models, namely the GFS, have been showing this threat across the Gulf of Mexico for the better part of a week and a half. It should be noted that this particular model has varied wildly at times, showing anything from a minimal tropical storm to a full-blown major hurricane. The usually more reliable European model has also picked up on the threat the past several days. While there is a decent agreement between global weather models that an area of lowering pressures will likely develop in the next week across the NW Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico, any intensity estimates and future impacted regions are still uncertain at this time. As of today, there is no trackable feature, though some thunderstorm activity has attempted to develop in the southwest Caribbean. This activity is embedded within a region of strong wind shear, so sub-tropical or tropical development, if any, over the next several days will be slow to occur.

Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf are relatively average, with slightly above average waters near the northern and western Gulf Coast. However, there is a noticeably cooler pocket that extends from the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern/eastern Gulf. Wind shear (the change in direction and speed of wind throughout the atmosphere) is also expected to be reasonably strong over the next week across a majority of the Gulf. Even though they may not completely inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone, these two factors are detrimental to their structure and intensity.